FXUS04 KWBC 261005 PAA
QPFPFD
 
QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
505 AM EST SUN JAN 26 2003
 
FINAL DAY 1...DAY 2 AND DAY 3 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID JAN 27/1200 UTC THRU JAN 29/1200 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR
 

DAY 1...

FOR THE MOST PART...THE PRELIM DAY1 QPF WAS UPDATED TO REFLECT
CURRENT OBSERVATIONAL DATA.   THE 0000 UTC AND 0600 UTC MODEL
MASS FIELD FCSTS WERE VERY SIMILAR. 

...ERN U.S...

MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT SHRTWV ENERGY DIGGING
SEWD THRU THE GREAT LAKES REGION WILL RESULT IN A STRONGLY
AMPLIFIED UPPER TROF OVER THE ERN STATES BY MONDAY MRNG.   THE
DYNAMIC LIFT ASOCTD WITH THE AMPLIFICATION PROCESS WILL HELP TO
TRIGGER LGT PCPN AMTS ALONG THE ASOCTD ARCTIC FRONT PRESSING
SWD AND EWD ACROSS THE REGION.   THE ETA AND GFS QPFS ARE IN
GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE AXIS OF SGFNT PCPN AS WELL AS COVERAGE
AND SEE LITTLE REASON TO DISAGREE AT THE CURRENT TIME.

...N CNTRL U.S...

THE ETA AND GFS BOTH GENERATE A LGT WAA PCPN PATTERN AHEAD OF
A SHRTWV TROF WORKING ITS WAY THRU THE WRN U.S. UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE PSN.   STG LLVL SLY FLOW WILL ADVECT RATHER MEAGER PW INTO
A RETREATING STG BAROCLINIC ZONE SUPPORTING THE EVENT.   THE ETA
AND GFS QPFS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT HERE ON AMTS AND COVERAGE.

...WRN GULF COAST/LWR MS VLY...

THE 0000 UTC ETA SEEMS TO HAVE HAD THE BEST HANDLE SO FAR ON THE
ONGOING PCPN ACROSS THIS REGION.   MOIST FLOW OFF THE GULF OF
MEXICO WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT WAA PCPN ASOCTD WITH A WEAK
IMPULSE ADVANCING FM THE SRN PLAINS THRU NWLYFLOW ALOFT.  
STAYED CLOSE TO THE 0000 UTC ETA QPF HERE.

...NWRN U.S...

AN AMPLIFYING NERN PACIFIC SHRTWV TROF WILL WORK TO THE BRITISH
COLUMBIA COAST BY THIS MRNG WITH A SGFNT PORTION OF ITS ENERGY
EXPECTED TO SHEAR EWD AND TEMPORARILY HELP TO BREAK DOWN THE
WRN NOAM LONGWV UPPER RIDGE.   THE FRONTAL BAND ASOCTD WITH
THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE PACIFIC NW BY MRNG AND
PRESS RAPIDLY EWD DURING THE PD BRINGING SGFNT PCPN TOTALS TO
MUCH OF THE PACIFIC NW AND THE NRN INTERMTN REGION PER THE ETA
AND GFS.   THE TRAILING PORTION OF THE BAROCLINIC BAND WILL WORK
ITS WAY SWD TO THE VICINITY OF NRN CA WHERE ANOTHER PIECE  OF
SHRTWV ENERGY MOVG THRU FAST WLY FLOW IS EXPECTED TO PROVIDE
THE LIFT TO TRIGGER ADNL MDT TO LCLY HVY PCPN TOTALS DURING THE
SECOND HALF OF THE PD.   LATEST STLT IMAGERY SEEMS SUPPORTIVE OF
THIS SCENARIO SHOWING ADNL MID-LAT  SHRTWV ENERGY NEAR 145W.  
FINALLY...ANOTHER IMPULSE IS FCST TO MOVE TO NEAR VRISL BY MONDAY
MRNG WHICH SHOULD BRING ADNL SHWRS TO THE EXTREME PACIFIC NW.




DAY 2...

RELATIVELY BENIGN PATTERN SETS UP FOR THIS PERIOD.  PACIFIC INFLOW
GRADUALLY DECREASES AS RIDGE BUILDS ALONG THE BC
COAST...SHIFTING MOISTURE NWD INTO WRN CANADA.  BIGGEST AMTS IN
THE WEST WILL OCCUR DURING THE FIRST 6-12 HRS OVER PORTIONS OF
THE GREAT BASIN AND CNTRL ROCKIES...BUT SHOULD NOT EXCEED .50
INCH EXCEPT IN ISOLATED OROGRAPHICALLY FAVORED LOCATIONS.  

WARM ADVECTION SNOW WILL SPREAD OVER A LARGE AREA OF THE
UPPER MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES BUT WILL REMAIN LIGHT.  ERN NEW
ENGLAND IS BRUSHED BY WRN FRINGE OF POWERFUL NORTH ATLANTIC
STORM.



DAY 3...

STRONG SHORTWAVE MOVES TOWARD THE AK PANHANDLE PUSHING A
POTENT FRONTAL BNDRY AHEAD OF IT THAT WILL AFFECT BC...WA...AND
NWRN OR THIS PERIOD.  HEAVIEST ACTIVITY WILL FOCUS ON VANCOUVER
ISLAND BUT THERE COULD STILL BE .50 TO 1 INCH AMTS IN THE OLYMPICS
OF WA.  FARTHER SOUTH...WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL STREAK THROUGH THE
FOUR CORNERS REGION WITH LIGHT PCPN.

WARM ADVECTION PCPN EXPANDS FROM THE GREAT LAKES SWD INTO THE
OH VALLEY AND SOUTHEAST AHEAD OF STRENGTHENING FRONT. 
HOWEVER AMTS STILL SHOULD NOT EXCEED .25 INCH.


KORTY/MAUSSER

GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov
24HR QP VT 27/12Z
 0.01 504653 501643 498637 494630 491628 483626 474624 466625
461626 
      457629 440636 421645 411650 407654 405658 403680 402685
400689 
      394698 357727 349735 346738 345742 344747 345751 348753
350756 
      358759 367759 371759 371763 373770 377772 385773 386775
384778 
      381781 376788 370798 366806 362813 354832 353837 353840
355842 
      358845 360851 361858 363862 367864 373864 374869 375873
376886 
      381897 384900 387900 388897 390893 393889 398883 412868
419871 
      424873 428874 435873 441871 452867 455868 458870 458872
459884 
      460891 461899 464903 468905 473903 476907 480905 484899
486894 
      490883 491878 491870 490862 489859 482850 477844 465822
457811 
      452805 448801 447797 447786 449773 452762 456753 460743
469721 
      473709 477699 479695 483692 494681 498674 501666 503659
504653 
 0.01 550154 546139 545133 542126 534112 528101 532098 539099
543098 
      546092 547089 549083 550078 547069 544063 537053 530043
523034 
      521029 520023 518016 518011 519009 526009 533007 540004
543002 
      547998 548988 546982 543973 540968 532957 528952 523948
514942 
      504939 494933 478924 459913 448908 439906 429903 420902
413905 
      411907 405911 403916 402921 404926 406930 410942 413950
415955 
      419970 423984 427993 435004 439009 441015 443026 444030
450041 
      459051 465059 468065 468071 466079 465086 465097 463097
460091 
      459085 456077 453072 448071 444073 445078 449084 449088
446089 
      439088 432088 428086 425085 422087 421095 415104 412109
409112 
      404116 406121 410125 413130 412139 409144 404148 401154
402159 
      403160 407165 409176 412182 412189 407198 402202 396201
390199 
      383199 382201 383204 387208 395218 383228 384234 387239
396249 
      400251 406253 416255 431259 437259 441259 453257 464257
468257 
      473259 477261 483267 494283 497288 500291 505293 508294
510297 
      528246 526243 523242 520240 518234 516228 513223 508217
506212 
      504206 504205 507204 510204 515208 518212 522216 526220
531224 
      534225 535225 
 0.01 482196 483190 481186 473184 470183 467186 464187 461190
457194 
      453201 450204 450207 454207 456205 459202 461203 466204
472202 
      478197 482196 
 0.01 438843 437835 434828 431828 427827 425830 422834 420839
419843 
      417849 416853 418854 424852 430851 435848 438843 
 0.01 419076 420068 418062 415058 412056 407053 404052 398053
397057 
      398062 399068 397072 398077 404077 409080 412080 415079
419076 
 0.01 326938 327932 326926 325921 322916 314904 311900 308898
301896 
      296896 294895 290896 288900 288909 285916 276929 254946
249952 
      245959 238969 239980 241990 243996 247002 252007 259012
265012 
      270013 275012 279010 278007 272001 268997 268992 269989
271981 
      273973 276971 280970 288973 295975 301974 304972 315961
319956 
      323950 325943 326938 
 0.25 475659 475654 472652 469653 463655 460657 455660 451665
450671 
      454677 456680 457684 458688 460690 463689 468685 471682
475675 
      476670 475664 475659 
 0.25 529194 527185 525177 522171 517163 512158 507154 500150
498149 
      495144 492138 487133 475127 471127 469131 469133 465132
461131 
      455134 453142 450144 446143 442139 438138 435140 434146
434151 
      436159 442170 445178 441182 439190 441193 446193 453193
457187 
      462184 464180 464174 479176 484180 491183 496186 502186
506188 
      512194 518200 523202 524202 528198 529194 
 0.25 513281 516274 517267 517259 516255 513247 511236 509231
506228 
      504224 503218 500209 497205 492203 483203 475205 470208
467210 
      461211 447214 431215 415226 415221 414215 409216 405218
405223 
      403228 400229 395229 393231 393234 394239 399245 405248
412247 
      419249 427250 435250 450246 465245 470246 475248 482253
492268 
      497276 503282 507284 510284 513281 
 0.25 497158 497154 496154 494151 491150 488149 488148 486145
483143 
      480143 477142 474145 474146 474146 477148 479149 481151
482152 
      485153 488153 491156 492157 493159 496159 497158 
 0.25 483231 483227 483227 480226 480226 480227 482231 482231
483231 
 0.25 453230 453230 450229 448229 450230 453230 453230 
 0.25 463169 460167 459164 458163 457164 456168 457171 460171
463169 
 0.25 452118 454113 453109 450105 447103 441101 435103 432104
426107 
      424111 423115 424119 426123 429121 432119 438117 443121
446122 
      449120 452118 
 0.25 314934 315927 314921 311915 308912 304913 304916 304923
303926 
      302931 300936 298940 297944 301945 307944 309941 312938
314934 
 0.25 261969 262966 262963 259962 258960 256958 254960 253961
251963 
      250965 249966 248968 247970 246971 246974 247975 250975
253976 
      253976 256977 258976 259975 260972 261971 261969 
 0.50 512275 514269 515262 512252 507235 503229 500218 497211
489207 
      484206 480206 473209 467212 461215 455215 448217 441217
434218 
      428220 425222 426225 426228 426231 423234 420233 416230
413227 
      413219 410218 408221 405232 399233 396236 398241 403245
409244 
      417246 426247 438245 451242 459241 466239 471241 478245
483249 
      488256 498270 502277 506279 509279 512275 
 0.50 522192 522187 521182 518177 515171 510167 506165 502164
497165 
      494165 490163 482156 472150 467145 465144 460146 459147
457151 
      455154 452153 445150 442150 440152 441157 445162 448169
452180 
      452184 453185 457184 462180 462177 459175 456176 453174
452169 
      455160 455158 458156 464160 467165 471169 474168 478170
483174 
      488175 495176 507182 511187 514190 520193 522192 
 0.50 490238 492234 491233 490229 489228 486226 483224 481222
478222 
      475223 473224 471225 469227 471231 473231 476232 479234
480235 
      481237 484239 487239 490238 490238 
 0.50 483134 483134 480133 478133 475133 475133 474137 474137
475137 
      477134 480135 483134 483134 
 0.50 457228 456227 453226 452226 450226 447227 444227 443228
441228 
      438229 437230 435231 432232 431232 431234 434235 437235
439235 
      440234 443233 446233 446233 449233 452233 455231 456230
457228 
 0.50 441108 441108 438108 436108 438110 441109 441108 
 1.00 503238 501233 499228 498223 496218 493217 491215 488212
485211 
      479211 476211 476216 479215 481217 487221 490222 492225
494231 
      497235 499238 503238 
 1.00 463221 463220 460219 457218 455217 453218 454221 457221
460222 
      463221 463221 
 1.00 450238 449237 446236 445237 446237 448238 450238 
 1.00 453222 451220 448220 447220 448223 451223 453222 
 1.00 427243 428239 428239 425237 422236 419235 417233 414233
411232 
      409234 407235 405236 407238 410239 412240 415241 418242
421243 
      424243 427243 427243 
 1.00 404240 404237 401237 400239 401240 403241 404240  
 
24HR QP VT 28/12Z
 0.01 564893 561910 561920 565928 568939 566953 565963 562973
559979 
      551987 538987 521980 514977 509975 505974 503976 500982
496984 
      493983 490979 489975 487970 484966 480962 474959 462954
450949 
      436945 425941 420938 415933 411930 407923 398910 394903
391893 
      389889 390882 396869 401863 404855 404845 405837 407832
412826 
      414821 410818 403815 392808 386801 386797 391794 399790
411790 
      430797 441798 447799 453798 460798 467800 474803 477805
480805 
      490808 502810 509812 531813 549816 558830 558836 
 0.01 456686 474677 488671 495663 497651 493633 481612 472600
464597 
      454605 448615 444630 442637 441644 438652 435656 432663
429671 
      424680 416691 413704 422711 433710 441698 450688 456686 
 0.01 526252 518234 513224 508216 503208 495200 486198 478200
469200 
      456206 447207 444204 451197 457188 463176 471173 483178
492183 
      497185 500188 506194 513203 523217 534224 542198 541188
537179 
      533171 528164 522158 517154 514152 506147 500142 491133
485128 
      481126 476125 473123 471118 468108 467103 465098 462093
454080 
      449073 445066 441055 430025 423002 419992 413985 407987
403999 
      401012 404028 408040 407046 404049 401050 396052 386058
379070 
      379080 382088 387090 390090 395087 397087 401090 401096
396102 
      391105 389106 386110 379122 379131 378143 378148 376151
374162 
      373170 370177 366184 365191 373203 379209 385212 392224
396231 
      397234 400237 408237 415234 430234 441247 451252 457258
472272 
      487285 490289 494292 501297 507301 
 0.25 517268 518264 517259 515253 510244 505234 498225 496224
493225 
      489227 480228 477230 475232 473237 475242 480245 485249
488253 
      494263 500271 502272 505272 507268 512269 515269 517268 
 0.25 447105 442098 435092 430089 425089 423091 422095 421101
418104 
      413106 406110 404113 405116 408119 420123 425129 427134
426139 
      424141 420149 418156 417165 416179 418185 423188 428189
432181 
      437169 440160 441152 436144 433136 434127 440117 444112
447105 
 0.25 409061 403062 398066 397071 400074 407075 410075 416073
420068 
      419065 415062 409061 
 0.25 392153 392149 390149 388152 387155 388158 390159 391157
392153 
 0.50 433112 433108 432107 429106 428108 428112 429113 432113
433112  
 
24HR QP VT 29/12Z
 0.01 347918 358910 369893 375889 381889 385892 392896 400893
408883 
      415874 424870 431871 437871 445873 453879 456892 460903
467907 
      476905 483894 490871 502845 508829 523811 536792 539765
529741 
      516729 499716 475714 449718 425736 386777 372794 348823
338837 
      335843 331850 328859 325867 322874 319883 311915 310919
310926 
      311929 314930 318927 329914 347918 
 0.01 541192 538184 524164 510151 498139 489130 480121 475115
473106 
      465098 459093 451090 441089 429096 420105 421113 430123
441134 
      449148 452155 454160 454167 450175 444186 442199 439209
436217 
      433232 432237 432253 440266 462273 490295 500303 506306
527252 
      525247 525247 523242 522240 520237 519235 518232 516229
516228 
      513223 513223 514221 516223 518225 519226 522229 524231
524232 
      527236 529238 529238 
 0.01 413964 412953 410941 408934 406929 402929 399936 399948
399955 
      400966 400972 402977 406983 410983 413979 413968 413964 
 0.01 413068 412063 409060 401056 392060 389061 384061 374060
369059 
      365061 364065 365069 368073 370076 372081 373087 373094
372108 
      376132 376138 378144 381147 386149 391145 392138 393124
389101 
      389096 392090 396083 399079 404076 411072 413068 
 0.25 524261 521251 518244 510229 505221