AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO                                              
234 PM MDT FRI JUL 20 2007                                                      
.SHORT TERM...                                                                  
(TONIGHT AND SATURDAY)                                                          
...LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON AND                   
EVENING MAINLY WEST OF I-25...                                                  
MOISTURE PLUME STILL OVER CENTRAL AND WESTERN CO WITH THE MAIN UPPER            
HIGH CENTER LOCATED OVER NE CO/SE WY.  ONCE AGAIN...ITS DIFFICULT TO            
PICK OUT ANY EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES OVER THE REGION...THOUGH RUC IS                
PLACING A VORT MAX OVER WRN CO...WHICH IS DRIFTING SLOWLY TO THE NE.            
COULD BE AN WEAK MCV ASSOC WITH LAST NIGHTS CONVECTION ACROSS                   
EASTERN CO WHICH IS DRIFTING TO THE WEST ALONG THE SRN PERIPHERY OF             
THE UPPER HIGH CENTER...BUT MODELS DON`T SEEM TO INDICATE THIS                  
FEATURE...SO HARD TO KNOW HOW MUCH UPPER LIFT MAY BE PRESENT. SFC               
DEW POINTS QUITE HIGH ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA...WITH MID 50S/LOWER              
60S ACROSS THE PLAINS...AND UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50 DEWPOINTS ACROSS              
THE MTN LOCATIONS AS WELL.  WITH MOISTURE PLUME TRANSLATING WESTWARD            
IN WV PICS...THINK MAIN THREAT FOR HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE ACROSS THE            
WESTERN HALF OF THE FCST AREA.  CLOUD COVER HAS SLOWED SFC BASED                
HEATING...WHICH HAS DELAYED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THIS                
AREA...HOWEVER LATEST RADAR TRENDS ARE SHOWING SOME THUNDERSTORMS               
POPPING ALONG THE CREST OF THE SRN SANGRES...AND ALONG THE EAST                 
SLOPES OF THE LA GARITAS AND EASTERN SAN JUAN MTS.                              
SO FOR TONIGHT...PRECIP WATERS/LAYER SPECIFIC HUMIDITIES REMAIN HIGH            
THROUGH THE EVENING...(150% OF NORMAL IN GJT 12Z MORNING SOUNDING).             
THUS...HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL IS STILL THERE.  WITH GROUND SATURATED              
IN SOME AREAS FROM YESTERDAY/S RAINFALL...SOME AREAS ARE ALREADY                
PRIMED FOR POTENTIAL FLASH FLOODING.  HAVE OPTED TO ISSUE A FLASH FLOOD         
WATCH ONCE AGAIN...THOUGH THIS TIME THINK THREAT AREA WILL BE A BIT             
FARTHER WEST.  MODEL QPFS ARE ALL OVER THE MAP WITH RUC ALREADY                 
OVERDOING PCPN ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS DURING THE MORNING HOURS               
WHERE NO PRECIPITATION HAS BEEN OCCURRING.  HOWEVER BY LATER THIS               
AFTN/EVENING...ENOUGH SFC BASED HEATING...AND WHATEVER WEAK UPPER               
LIFT IS AVAILABLE...SHOULD ALLOW SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS            
TO DEVELOP ALONG/WEST OF I-25.  EAST OF I-25...ATMOS MAY BE MORE                
CAPED...AND FORCING DOESN/T LOOK AS GREAT IN THIS REGION...SO                   
ISOLATED POPS SHOULD DO IT. CONCEPTUALLY...FOCUS FOR HEAVIEST PCPN              
SHOULD BE ACROSS FREMONT COUNTY...THE SANGRES AND WET                           
MOUNTAINS...PIKES PEAK/TELLER COUNTY...CHAFFEE/LAKE COUNTIES...AND              
THE SOUTHWEST MTS INCLUDING THE LA GARITAS AND EASTERN SAN JUAN MTS             
EAST OF THE CONTDVD.  THINK THREAT WILL BE LOCALIZED...BUT GIVEN                
THAT IMPACT COULD BE COMPOUNDED BY THE FACT THAT SOME AREAS ARE                 
ALREADY SATURATED FROM YESTERDAY`S RAINFALL...WENT AHEAD AND ISSUED             
THE WATCH.  HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE JUST ABOUT ANYWHERE...BUT                
DECIDED TO LIMIT THE WATCH AREA TO LOCATIONS WHERE COMPLEX                      
TERRAIN...BURN SCARS...OR SATURATED SOILS MAKE FLASH FLOODING                   
PARTICULARLY SUSCEPTIBLE.  OF COURSE EVEN IN URBAN AREAS...2 INCH               
PER HOUR RAINFALL RATES CAN QUICKLY OVERWHELM DRAINAGE SYSTEMS.                 
THINK MAIN THREAT AREA WILL BE WEST OF INTERSTATE 25...BUT DID                  
INCLUDE PUEBLO COUNTY SINCE WRN PORTIONS ARE SO SATURATED.  TOUGH               
CALL FOR EL PASO COUNTY AS THIS AREA LOOKS TO BE JUST ON THE FRINGES            
OF THE THREAT AREA.  FOR NOW WILL LEAVE THEM OUT OF THE WATCH SINCE             
THEY DIDN/T GET THE WIDESPREAD RAINFALL WHICH OCCURRED                          
YESTERDAY...AND WILL MONITOR LATEST RADAR TRENDS AND MAKE THIS A                
LAST MINUTE CALL BEFORE ZONE ISSUANCE.  THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD                    
DIMINISH FOR MOST AREAS BY MIDNIGHT...THOUGH COULD STILL SEE SOME               
LINGERING SHOWERS AFTER MIDNIGHT ACROSS THE WRN MTS.  AS FOR SEVERE             
WEATHER POTENTIAL...HIGHEST CAPES APPEAR TO BE ACROSS SRN AND WRN               
PORTIONS OF THE FCST AREA...WHERE LAPS INDICATES 1500-2000+ J/KG OF             
CAPE.  FREEZING LEVELS ARE QUITE HIGH...SO SOME MARGINAL SEVERE HAIL            
IS POSSIBLE OVER THE MOUNTAIN AREAS...THOUGH THINK MOST OF THE HAIL             
WILL BE AROUND 1/2 INCH OR LESS IN DIAMETER.  DEEP LAYER SHEARS                 
STILL QUITE WEAK...SO NOT EXPECTING ANY ROTATING SUPERCELLS.                    
FOR SATURDAY...DRIER AIR MOVES INTO THE EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE FCST            
AREA...AND LEE TROF EXPANDS SOUTHWARD WHICH HELPS TO DRY OUT SFC DEW            
POINTS ALONG AND EAST OF THE SE MTS.  PRECIP WATERS STILL QUITE HIGH            
OUT WEST...SO IMAGINE THAT THERE WILL STILL BE SOME THREAT FOR FLASH            
FLOODING ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST/CEN MTNS...BUT THREAT MAY BE MORE                 
LOCALIZED.  TEMPS WARM A FEW DEGREES FOR EASTERN AREAS ON                       
SATURDAY...AND OVERALL GRIDS LOOK IN GOOD SHAPE.  MAIN CHANGE WAS TO            
BUMP UP POPS FOR THE WRN MTS SAT AFTN.  -KT                                     
.LONG TERM...                                                                   
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY                                                   
UPPER RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.                
UPPER HIGH CENTER WOBBLES TO EAST OVER THE WEEKEND THEN REFORMS TO              
THE NORTH. THIS SHOULD ALLOW DRIER AIR TO WORK INTO EASTERN                     
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA BUT MOISTURE REMAINS TRAPPED UNDER                
THE RIDGE ALONG AND WEST OF CONTINENTAL DIVIDE. THIS WILL KEEP THE DIURNAL      
CONVECTION GOING OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN. TEMPS WILL START TO WARM                
AGAIN RETURNING TO ABOVE NORMAL AT LEAST THROUGH MID WEEK. INTERESTING          
PATTERN CHANGE FOR THE END OF THE FORECAST CYCLE. EUROPEAN AND GFS              
MODELS INDICATING THAT THE UPPER LOW IN THE NORTHEAST WILL                      
RETROGRADE WESTWARD. THIS SHOULD PUT THE EASTERN PLAINS OF THE FORECAST         
AREA INTO A COOLER PATTERN WITH NORTHERLY FLOW AROUND THE BACK                  
SIDE OF THE UPPER LOW WHILE THE WEST REMAINS WARM AND MOIST WITH                
CONTINUED SOUTHERLY FLOW AND MOISTURE TRAPPED UNDER THE RIDGE.  HELD            
ON TO CURRENT FORECAST WITHOUT MUCH CHANGE. WARMED MAX TEMPS                    
SLIGHTLY ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. -FORTUNE-                                   
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
HEAVY RAIN WITH IFR CIGS EXPECTED WITH THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND WEST             
OF THE INTERSTATE 25 CORRIDOR THROUGH THIS EVENING.  THUNDERSTORMS              
SHOULD DISSIPATE AFTER 06Z WITH SOME LINGERING LIGHT SHOWERS ALONG              
THE SOUTHERN AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE ROUTES UNTIL 12Z.  IFR TO              
MVFR CIGS MAY DEVELOP ACROSS THE SAN LUIS VALLEY                                
OVERNIGHT...AFFECTING THE KALS TAF SITE.  MORE PATCHY IFR TO MVFR               
CIGS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE PLAINS TONIGHT AS WELL...HOWEVER               
WITH WESTERLY DRAINAGE WINDS OFF THE EASTERN MTS...THINK THESE                  
CLOUDS WILL STAY EAST OF THE KCOS AND KPUB TAF SITES.  THUNDERSTORMS            
WILL BE FOCUSED MORE TO THE WEST FOR SATURDAY...WHERE HEAVY RAIN AND            
LOCAL IFR CIGS WILL BE POSSIBLE MAINLY WEST OF KANK AND KALS.                   
&&                                                                              
.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 11 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR COZ058>063-                  
065>068-072>083-086>088.                                                        
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
31/21                                                                           
</pre> co                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO                                              
350 AM MDT FRI JUL 20 2007                                                      
.SHORT TERM...                                                                  
(TONIGHT AND FRIDAY)                                                            
...HEAVY RAIN AND FLOODING REMAIN A CONCERN THROUGH THIS EVENING...             
IMPRESSIVE MCC OVER CO EARLY THIS MORN...WHICH HAS DEVELOPED A LIFE             
OF ITS OWN IN THE CENTER OF A BROAD UPPER RIDGE THAT CONTINUES TO               
BUILD NORTHWARD THROUGH THE CENTRAL ROCKIES AND HIGH PLAINS. CLOUD              
TOPS HAVE STEADILY WARMED THIS MORN...EXCEPT OVER EXTREME SERN                  
COUNTIES WHERE CONVECTION REMAINS PRETTY ACTIVE ATTM. A LINE SEGMENT            
OVER BACA COUNTY WILL MOVE SLOWLY TO THE NW THIS MORN...AND IS LIKELY           
PRODUCING SOME PRETTY HEAVY LOCAL RAINFALL AND SMALL HAIL. EVEN                 
06Z RUNS OF HIGHER RES NAM AND RUC HAVE NOT PICKED UP ON THE CONVECTION         
OVER THE SERN PLAINS...WHICH LEAVES LITTLE CONFIDENCE IN SPECIFIC               
QPF FORECASTS FOR TODAY.                                                        
MAIN AREA OF CONCERN TODAY WILL BE OVER THE ERN MTS AND ADJACENT                
PLAINS...WHERE A BROAD AREA RECEIVED 2-4 INCHES OF RAIN YESTERDAY.              
WILL ALSO SEE POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING OVER THE ERN SAN                     
JUANS...LA GARITAS...AND SRN SAWATCH LATER THIS AFTERNOON. THIS                 
REGION DID NOT RECEIVE AS MUCH RAINFALL YESTERDAY...BUT AS HIGH                 
SLOWLY SHIFTS TO THE N AND E TODAY...MAY SEE FOCUS FOR HEAVY                    
CONVECTION SHIFT TO THE WRN RANGES. QPF FROM THE LATEST GUIDANCE IS             
NOT THAT HIGH FOR EITHER OF THESE REGIONS TODAY...IN THE .5 TO 1 INCH           
RANGE...BUT IT WILL NOT TAKE MUCH WITH ALREADY SATURATED SOILS FOR              
FLOODING TO OCCUR WITH ANY STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP. PRECIP H20                   
IS DOWN A BIT FROM YESTERDAY...BUT STILL IN THE 1.25-1.5 INCH RANGE.            
DEWPOINTS REMAIN QUITE HIGH...SATURATED RIGHT NOW AT KPUB WITH A                
DEWPT OF 63...AND UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S OVER MUCH OF SWERN CO. EVEN            
HIGH VALLEYS ARE IN THE UPR 40S TO LOWER 50S. SO...A WHOLE LOT OF               
AVAILABLE MOISTURE TO WORK WITH TODAY.                                          
MAIN PROBLEM IS THAT...UNLIKE YESTERDAY...THERE IS NO REAL SYNOPTIC             
FEATURE TO SET OFF PRECIP. MAIN TRIGGER TODAY WILL PROBABLY CONTINUE            
TO BE THE WEAK CIRCULATION OVER CO THAT HAS BEEN SETTING OFF SHRA               
THROUGH THIS MORNING. TEMPS WILL BE A GOOD 10-12 DEGREES LOWER TODAY            
WITH MOISTURE AND HEAVY CLOUD COVER KEEPING THINGS ON THE COOL                  
SIDE. WENT CLOSE TO THE NAM-BASED MOS FOR TEMPS TODAY. SO...WHILE               
THERE IS DEFINITELY POTENTIAL FOR MORE FLOODING TODAY...WILL HOLD               
OFF ON ANY WATCHES FOR NOW BUT STRONGLY HIGHLIGHT THE POTENTIAL IN              
THE HWO AND GRAPHICAL FORECASTS. LIKE YESTERDAY...WEAK UPPER WINDS              
WILL LIMIT STORM MOVEMENT AND THIS COULD BE PROBLEMATIC WITH ANY                
STRONG CONVECTION THAT DOES DEVELOP.                                            
SHOULD SEE CONVECTION WIND DOWN A BIT EARLIER THIS EVE...AS THE UPR             
HIGH CONTINUES TO BUILD...SETTING THE STAGE FOR A HOT AND RELATIVELY            
DRY WEEKEND. ROSE                                                               
.LONG TERM...                                                                   
(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)                                                     
MAIN ISSUES ARE THE USUAL...COVERAGE OF PRECIPITATION AND TEMPERATURES.         
SATURDAY...UPPER HIGH FIRMLY IN PLACE OVER COLORADO...BUT WITH                  
MOISTURE IN THE RIDGE...WOULD EXPECT CONVECTION TO ERUPT AGAIN                  
FROM THE I-25 CORRIDOR TO THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL MOUNTAINS. WOULD              
BET THE FOCUS OF THE HEAVIER RAINFALL WOULD BE ACROSS THE HIGHER                
TERRAIN...AS INDICATED BY THE HIGHER CAPES IN THE NAM12. NEED TO                
WATCH FOR REPEAT RAINFALL EVENTS...ESPECIALLY OVER THE EASTERN                  
MOUNTAINS...FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF FLASH FLOODING. HAVE LOWERED                 
HIGH TEMPERATURES...PER NEW GUIDANCE...AND THE FACT THAT THE                    
GROUND IS WET ALONG THE I-25 CORRIDOR...AND OTHER AREAS IN THE                  
MOUNTAINS AND SOUTHEAST.                                                        
SUNDAY...THE UPPER FLOW IS WEAK...AT THE CENTER OF THE RIDGE...SO               
ANY DEEP CONVECTION WILL MOVE SLOWLY...AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS                  
ARE AGAIN PROBABLE. FOCUS OF RAINFALL AGAIN WILL BE IN THE                      
MOUNTAINS AND HIGH VALLEYS. COVERAGE OF RAIN ON NAM12 LESS...AND                
MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES A TAD HIGHER....SO KEPT GOING FORECAST OF                
THE WARMER WEEKEND DAY INTACT.                                                  
GUIDANCE HAS DEEP EASTERLY FLOW ON MONDAY...SO PRECIPITATION                    
SHOULD BE CONFINED TO THE I-25 CORRIDOR AND WESTWARD. TEMPERATURES              
SHOULD SOAR WELL INTO THE 90S ACROSS THE PLAINS...WITH 80S TO 60S               
IN THE HIGH VALLEYS AND MOUNTAINS.                                              
FOR THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...LITTLE CHANGE...WITH MID                  
LEVELS TEMPERATURES HOVERING BETWEEN 14 AND 18 DEGREES                          
CELSIUS...AND DAILY CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE              
EASTERN MOUNTAINS TO THE SAWATCH RANGE AND EASTERN SAN JUANS...AS               
UPPER RIDGE MOVES LITTLE.                                                       
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...MAIN CONCERN WILL BE LOW CIGS THIS MORNING OVER MUCH OF             
THE SERN PLAINS...AND POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINFALL                   
ONCE AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. PATCHY FOG EARLY THIS MORN               
SHOULD BE LIMITED TO THE HYR TRRN AND WILL DISSIPATE LATER THIS MORN.           
CONCERN THIS AFTERNOON WILL SHIFT TO AREAS OF IFR VIS IN NUMEROUS               
THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON. BEST POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY             
RAINFALL AND SMALL HAIL WILL BE OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND ADJACENT                 
PLAINS.                                                                         
&&                                                                              
.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
NONE.                                                                           
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
44/13                                                                           
</pre> co                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO                                              
324 AM MDT THU JUL 19 2007                                                      
.SHORT TERM...                                                                  
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)                                                             
...STRONG-SEVERE TSTMS POSSIBLE WITH HEAVY RAIN THIS AFTN/EVE...                
CURRENTLY...SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE                       
SYSTEM(MCS) STRETCHED ACROSS MUCH OF NE...NRN KS...AND IA EARLY THIS            
MORNING. RESULTANT OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WAS RACING THROUGH SERN CO/SWRN             
KS PER REGIONAL RADAR DATA. MUCH OF THE MCS PRECIPITATION OVER NWRN             
KS WAS DISSIPATING. FURTHER W...ISOLD-SCT SHRA AND A FEW TSTMS WERE             
OVER EXTREME WRN CO/ERN UT. 08Z/19 HAND ANALYZED SURFACE CHART                  
SHOWED LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S DEW POINTS ACROSS NERN CO AND TRYING TO              
ADVECT INTO SERN CO PLAINS. MSAS SURFACE PRESSURE CHANGE ANALYSIS               
HAD THE STRONGEST RISES FURTHER NE INTO SRN NE DIRECTLY UNDER THE               
MCS CENTROID(MBE). MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE CENTER WAS              
OVER CNTRL CO PER RUC MODEL UPPER AIR ANALYSES.                                 
TODAY...BIG FORECAST CHALLENGES WITH TSTM DEVELOPMENT AND ITS IMPACT            
WEATHER. ACTUAL PLACEMENT OF THE SURFACE-LOW LEVEL FRONTAL BOUNDARY             
ACROSS SERN CO PLAINS WILL BE A KEY. HIGH RESOLUTION MODEL WANTS TO             
STALL IT OUT SOMEWHERE AROUND THE CO/NM/OK/KS BORDER LATER                      
TODAY...WHICH COULD BE REASONABLE GIVEN THE LACK OF CURRENT PRESSURE            
RISES BEHIND THIS PART OF THE BOUNDARY. ACTUAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE               
WILL BE ANOTHER KEY. RUC40 AND WRF WANT TO BRING 60S SURFACE DEW                
POINTS UP AGAINST THE MOUNTAINS AND SERN CO PLAINS LATER TODAY.                 
RESULTING IN SOME RELATIVELY HIGH SURFACE-BASED CAPE VALUES UP TO 3K            
J/KG ACROSS SERN CO. IF THE SURFACE DEW POINTS ARE LOWER...THEN CAPE            
VALUES WILL BE A LITTLE LOWER...BUT STILL RESPECTABLE PROBABLY                  
AROUND 1K-2K J/KG WITH LIFTED INDICES OF 0C TO -4C. NOTHING IN THE              
MIDDLE/UPPER LEVELS TO FOCUS ON A TSTM TRIGGER TODAY TO ENHANCE                 
CONVECTION...SO WILL NEED TO RELY ON LOW LEVEL FORCING. NO H3-H2                
POTENTIAL VORTICITY LOBE WITHIN THE WEAK FLOW HIGH ALOFT...WHICH IS             
USUALLY TO BE EXPECTED. THINK THE 12Z-15Z RUC40 QPF IS A LITTLE                 
OVERDONE. THINKING IS THE SAME THING WILL HAPPEN HAS YESTERDAY.                 
ISOLD-SCT SHRA/TSRA WILL FIRE UP OVER THE MOUNTAINS BETWEEN 15Z-18Z             
AND THEN SPREAD INTO THE ADJACENT VALLEYS AND I-25 CORRIDOR DURING              
THE AFTN. POTENTIAL FOR SOME LOW LEVEL BOUNDARY FORCING NEAR AND                
JUST N OF THE BOUNDARY ACROSS THE SERN CO PLAINS THIS AFTN. THE MAIN            
TSTM IMPACT WEATHER SHOULD BE MODERATE-HEAVY RAIN GIVEN THE                     
RELATIVELY WEAK CLOUD LAYER STEERING CURRENTS OF 5KTS OR                        
LESS...RELATIVELY HIGH FREEZING LEVELS...AND H7-H5 SPECIFIC HUMIDITY            
VALUES OF 6-8 G/KG. LOCALIZED 1 TO 2 INCHES PER HOURS WOULD BE                  
POSSIBLE THIS AFTN...ESPECIALLY GIVEN TSTM CELL TRAINING AND                    
MERGERS. JUST MODERATE RAIN IN EXTREMELY DIVERSE COMPLEX                        
TERRAIN(E.G. CANYONS) COULD CAUSE A VERY LOCALIZED FLASH FLOOD                  
THREAT. PRIMARILY...THE STORM TYPE SHOULD BE PULSE...BUT WITH 0-6KM             
SHEAR VALUES AROUND 20-25KTS JUXTAPOSED WITH A LOW LEVEL                        
BOUNDARY...MIGHT SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR A ROTATING STORM                     
SOMEWHERE IN SERN CO PLAINS. PATTERN WOULD SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR            
PROLIFIC SMALL HAILERS PRODUCING COUPLE OF INCHES WITH THE SLOW                 
MOVING STORMS...ESPECIALLY FOR THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS WHERE THE                  
SMALLER HAILSTONES WOULD HAVE A GREATER PROBABILITY OF SURVIVING.               
STILL COULD NOT RULE OUT ONE OR TWO FREAK SEVERE TSTMS THIS AFTN.               
BASED ON POST RADAR ANALYSIS FROM YESTERDAY...WILL INCREASE POPS TO             
LIKELY OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND HIGH SCATTERED POPS FOR THE LOWER                 
ELEVATIONS. ALSO...ADDED MODERATE-HEAVY RAIN TO MUCH OF THE CWFA                
WITH THE HEAVY RAIN THREAT FOR OUR SERN CO MOUNTAINS/PLAINS. CURRENT            
HIGH TEMPERATURES LOOK REASONABLE AND THE MET MOS GUIDANCE MIGHT BE             
A LITTLE TOO COOL AND THE MAV MOS GUIDANCE A LITTLE TOO WARM.                   
TONIGHT...THE EVE TSTM ACTIVITY WILL DEPEND ON WHEN AND WHERE THINGS            
GET GOING THIS AFTN AND HOW /WORKED OVER/ THE ATMOSPHERE IS BY THIS             
EVE. THE TSTM FOCUS...WITH HEAVY RAIN...MAY SHIFT TOWARDS THE                   
NM/CO/OK/KS BORDER DURING THE EVE AND SHUTDOWN QUICKLY FURTHER N.               
TOUGH CALL. MUCH OF THE TSTM ACTIVITY SHOULD DISSIPATE AROUND                   
MIDNIGHT GIVEN THE LACK OF ANY SYNOPTIC SCALE FORCING                           
OVERNIGHT. METZE                                                                
.LONG TERM...                                                                   
(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)                                                      
...MORE HEAT FOR THE WEEKEND...                                                 
THE MAIN FEATURE FOR THE EXTENDED CONTINUES TO BE THE PERSISTENT                
UPPER RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ROCKIES. THE HIGH CENTER WILL         
SLOWLY MOVE TO THE NORTHEAST...OVER CO BY THIS WEEKEND AND THEN                 
INTO THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS AND UPP MISSOURI BY NEXT WEEK.                    
THIS WILL CONTINUE THE WARM WX AND DIURNAL TSTORMS OVER THE MTS                 
THROUGH THE EXTENDED. ONLY REAL CHANGE IN THE FORECAST WAS TO FOCUS             
POPS OVER THE CONTDVD ESPECIALLY AS THE HIGH MOVES NORTH OF CO.                 
H5 WINDS WILL THEN BE ERLY...AND THIS WILL KEEP DIURNAL TSTORMS                 
FROM MOVING OUT OVER THE ERN PLAINS.                                            
SHOULD SEE ONE MORE RELATIVELY COOL DAY ON FRI AS ERLY PUSH                     
CONTINUES OVR THE PLAINS. MAY SEE SOME LOW CLOUDS OVER THE SERN                 
GRASSLAND FRI MORN AND AGAIN EARLY SAT WITH LIGHT ERLY FLOW                     
CONTINUING AT THE SURFACE AND ABUNDANT LLVL MOISTURE. H7 TEMPS                  
REBOUND NICELY BACK TO 18 DEG C OR SO FOR SAT AND SUN...AND THESE               
SHOULD BE THE WARMEST DAYS WITH TEMPS OVR THE PLAINS ONCE AGAIN                 
CLOSE TO 100 DEG. UPPER RIDGE WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN AND BECOME MORE                
`DIRTY` NEXT WEEK...WITH LONG RANGE MODELS INDICATING A POSSIBLE                
PATTERN CHANGE BY THE END OF THE MONTH. ROSE                                    
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
SHRA/TSRA WILL AFFECT MUCH OF THE AIRPORTS AND FLIGHT ROUTES BETWEEN            
17Z/19 - 04Z/20. SHRA/TSRA WILL CREATE ERRATIC WINDS ALONG WITH                 
MVFR-VFR MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN AND SMALL HAIL. METZE                           
&&                                                                              
.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
NONE.                                                                           
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
17/44                                                                           
</pre> co                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY                                              
1011 PM EDT THU JUL 19 2007                                                     
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
A SURFACE LOW WAS LOCATED NEAR GLENS FALLS THIS EVENING. A WARM                 
FRONT EXTENDED FROM THIS LOW ACROSS MASSACHUSETTS TO NEAR CAPE                  
COD. A STRONG COLD FRONT WAS POISED TO ENTER WESTERN NEW YORK                   
STATE.                                                                          
&&                                                                              
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...                                       
NEXT SLUG OF RAINFALL ABOUT TO ENTER CWA THIS EVENING. HIT OR MISS              
LIGHTNING ASSOCIATED WITH THIS PRECIP WAS NOTED ACROSS THE                      
SOUTHERN TIER. PRECIP WILL CONTINUE TO MARCH EASTWARD TONIGHT AND               
OVERSPREAD ENTIRE CWA. WILL CARRY CATEGORICAL PRECIP WITH CHANCE                
TSRA. EVENING ALY SOUNDING SHOWED SURPRISING CAPE AT 1700 J/KG.                 
HOWEVER PLUGGING IN CURRENT SURFACE READINGS CAPE DOWN TO 600 J/KG              
AND CIN ON THE RISE. RUC FORECAST SHOWS SHOWALTERS TO LINGER                    
AROUND 0C THROUGH THE NIGHT...SO MAINTAINING CHANCE TSRA SEEMS                  
WARRANTED. SEVERE CHANCE IS NIL.                                                
UPPED MIN TEMPS SLIGHTLY GIVEN CURRENT READINGS AND ALSO TWEAKED                
WINDS TO MAINTAIN MORE NORTHERNLY WINDS ACROSS NORTHERN HALF OF                 
THE CWA.                                                                        
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...                     
NCEP AND THE NAM-12 MODEL MOVE THE FRONT ACROSS THE FORECAST                    
AREA THIS EVENING WITH SOME RAIN PERSISTING OVER OUR WESTERN                    
NEW ENGLAND ZONES OVERNIGHT. IN THE MEANTIME A SECOND AREA OF                   
RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER TROF BEGINS TO DROP SOUTHEAST                    
OUT OF CANADA INTO NORTHERN AND WESTERN NEW YORK BY MID                         
MORNING. THE SURFACE LOW LIFTS NORTHEAST INTO THE MARITIMES                     
LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND ENABLES HIGH PRESSURE TO MAKE ITS                     
WAY INTO THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT. MEANWHILE THE 500 HPA TROF                    
SHARPENS AND DIGS SOUTH ALONG THE EAST COAST ON SATURDAY...                     
AS THE RIDGE TO THE WEST SLOWLY MAKES IT WAY INTO THE PLAINS.                   
A SURFACE LOW FORMS NEAR CAPE HATTERAS FRIDAY EVENING AND                       
MOVES NORTH TO OFF THE DELMARVA COAST BY NOON SATURDAY. AT                      
THIS TIME IT APPEARS ITS EFFECT WILL BE LIMITED TO SPREADING                    
SOME HIGH CLOUDS OVER OUR NEW ENGLAND ZONES.                                    
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...                                         
THE 500 HPA TROF OVER THE REGION CONTINUES TO DIG SOUTH ALONG THE               
EAST COAST SUNDAY...AS THE RIDGE TO THE WEST MIGRATES FROM THE                  
PLAINS TO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. A SURFACE HIGH OVER THE                 
WESTERN GREAT LAKES BUILDS SOUTH AND SLIGHTLY EAST THE LOW EAST                 
DELMARVA DRIFTS SLOWLY EAST INTO THE ATLANTIC. A CUTOFF LOW FORMS               
IN THE TROF OVER SOUTHERN NJ AND THE TROF STALLS OVER THE HUDSON                
VALLEY...AS THE SURFACE LOW MOVES TO EAST OF CAPE COD AND THE HIGH              
DRIFTS SLOWLY EAST. ON MONDAY THE CUTOFF LOW BEGINS TO LIFT OUT TO              
THE NORTH AS THE RIDGE TO THE WEST CONTINUES TO MOVE SLOWLY EAST. A             
COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTH OUT OF CENTRAL CANADA AND WEAKENS AND                    
DISSIPATES AS IT STALLS CLOSE TO THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT AND                    
TUESDAY. MEANWHILE THE LARGE 500 HPA HIGH TO THE WEST BEGINS TO MOVE            
INTO THE REGION...SETTING UP WHAT APPEARS TO BE A CLASSIC BERMUDA               
HIGH BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. IT LOOKS LIKE THE BERMUDA HIGH WILL                
DOMINATE OUR WEATHER THROUGH THURSDAY...RESULTING IN SULTRY WEATHER             
WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S TO NEAR 90...DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 60S...AND               
AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.                                            
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION /02Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...                                       
NEXT ROUND OF SHRA TRACKING ACROSS CENTRAL NOW AND EXPECT TO                    
ARRIVE AT AREA TERMINALS BY ABOUT 02Z. SHOULD SEE MAINLY MVFR                   
CONDITIONS WITH THIS ACTIVITY...BASED ON UPSTREAM OBS. BY THE TIME              
SHRA ACTIVITY ARRIVES...LITTLE IF ANY SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY                 
AVAILABLE...BUT GIVEN POTENT NATURE OF SHORT WAVE...CAN NOT RULE                
OUT A RUMBLE OF THUNDER HENCE CB IN TEMPO GROUP.                                
TIMING OF THIS PRECIP GETS IT OUT OF THE AREA BY ABOUT 07Z                      
/ALTHOUGH NOT A LOT OF CONFIDENCE IN IT ENDING BY THEN/. ASSUMING               
TIMING IS CORRECT...HAVE ALLOWED FOR SOME CLEARING TO SET IN WITH               
ENOUGH TIME TO STILL LEAD TO BR FORMATION. THINKING NOW IS THAT                 
WILL BE LIMITED TO IFR BR AND NOT FG...BUT IF CLEARING SETS IN IN               
EARNEST...THEN GFL COULD GO TO FG.                                              
FOR TOMORROW HAVE INCLUDED VCSH IN TAFS AS ANOMALOUSLY STRONG                   
TROUGH LINGERS OVER THE AREA.                                                   
FRI...MAINLY VFR...BUT MVFR POSSIBLE WITH A ISOLAD SHRAS.                       
SAT...VFR...NO SIG WX.                                                          
SUN...VFR...NO SIG WX.                                                          
MON...VFR/MVFR...WDLY SCT SHRAS.                                                
&&                                                                              
.HYDROLOGY...                                                                   
SOME MINOR RISES HAVE OCCURRED IN RIVERS AND STREAMS FROM THE                   
RAIN WHICH FELL YESTERDAY. MOST OF THAT RAIN WENT INTO THE GROUND               
SO THE GROUND IS NOW MOISTER AND MORE OF WHAT RAIN COMES TODAY WILL             
RUN OFF. RAINFALL OVER THE AREA WILL GENERALLY AVERAGE AROUND AN                
INCH...BUT AMOUNTS WILL VARY A GREAT DEAL. SHARP RISES WILL OCCUR               
ON STREAMS IN THE VICINITY OF HEAVY DOWNPOURS BUT BASIN WIDE                    
RAINFALL WILL ONLY BE ENOUGH TO CAUSE MINOR TO MODERATE WITHIN-                 
BANK RISES.  REFER TO OUR ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION PAGES                  
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC RIVERS. NUISANCE TYPE FLOODING OF POORLY                
DRAINED ROADS AND PARKING AREAS IS LIKELY TO OCCUR DURING HEAVY                 
DOWNPOURS.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
CT...NONE.                                                                      
NY...NONE.                                                                      
MA...NONE.                                                                      
VT...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SYNOPSIS...OKEEFE                                                               
NEAR TERM...OKEEFE                                                              
</pre> ct                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL                                        
230 AM EDT THU JUL 19 2007                                                      
...ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TODAY...                                 
.SHORT TERM...GIVEN THE FACT THAT MOST OF THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY               
WAS SUPPRESSED YESTERDAY DESPITE IMPRESSIVE CAPE VALUES...A LITTLE              
SURPRISED TO SEE ACTIVITY FIRE AT THIS HOUR. BUT SUCH IS THE CASE               
OVER ST JOHNS COUNTY AND NOW OVER THE NEARSHORE ATLANTIC WATERS                 
WITH EVEN A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES EARLIER. EXPECT THIS SHOULD BE                
THE EXCEPTION MORE THAN THE RULE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE                       
OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH RUC SHOWING LARGE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS                 
ALL OF SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND NORTHEAST FLORIDA. AT THE                          
SURFACE...A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE IS MOVING THROUGH THE CAROLINAS              
AND NORTH GA AND HAS SHUNTED RIDGE AXIS TO THE SOUTH ONCE AGAIN                 
OVER SOUTH CENTRAL FLORIDA.                                                     
FOR TODAY...EXPECT A SIMILAR DAY TO YESTERDAY WITH UPPER HIGH                   
BEING VERY INFLUENTIAL IN SUPPRESSING ACTIVITY. MODELS IN                       
AGREEMENT WITH A DRY SLOT AT 700 MB INHIBITING CONVECTIVE                       
DEVELOPMENT OVER NORTHERN FLORIDA ALONG THE I-10 CORRIDOR FOR MUCH              
OF THE DAY. LOW END SCT POPS WILL BE FAVORED SOUTH OF THIS FEATURE              
OVER ALACHUA AND MARION COUNTIES. FURTHER NORTH...OVER THE GA                   
PORTION...ANOTHER SURFACE TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION...THIS               
TIME AT THE TIME OF MAX HEATING. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO MORE STORM                 
COVERAGE THAN PREVIOUS DAYS AND WILL INCLUDE LOW END SCT FOR MOST               
LOCATIONS. WITH WESTERLY STEERING FLOW AND THE ARRIVAL OF SURFACE               
TROUGH AND A SHORTWAVE THROUGH 06Z...LOOKS LIKE ACTIVITY MAY FIRE               
DURING THE LATE EVENING HOURS AS WELL ALONG COASTAL SOUTHEAST GA                
AND WILL KEEP POPS GOING INTO THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD.                             
COMPLEX THAT IS GENERATED BY THE VORT LOBE WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE FOR              
FRIDAY WITH DRIER AIR MOVING IN ON THE BACK SIDE. THIS WILL ALLOW               
FOR A POP REDUCTION OVER THE GA PORTION FOR THE FIRST PART OF                   
FRIDAY...WITH GREATEST RAIN CHANCES FOCUSED OVER NORTHEAST                      
FLORIDA. HOWEVER...WITH SURFACE LOW DEVELOPMENT OVER THE                        
CAROLINAS...AND ANOTHER SHORTWAVE...SE GA SHOULD GET IN ON THE ACT              
ONCE AGAIN DURING THE LATE EVEN HOURS WITH SCT POPS WARRANTED                   
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT PORTION.                                                  
PRETTY TOUGH AT THIS POINT TO DETERMINE WHERE SURFACE TROUGH WILL               
RESIDE FOR SAT AND AT THIS POINT WILL GO WITH MID RANGE SCT POPS                
FOR ALL ZONES. WILL SLIGHTLY FAVOR THE SOUTHERN TIER AS PREVIOUS                
DAYS OUTFLOWS WILL LIKELY TAKE TROUGH FURTHER SOUTH THAN WHAT                   
MODELS CURRENTLY DEPICT.                                                        
.LONG TERM...NOT MUCH CHANGE TO THE LONG TERM AS SURFACE TROUGH                 
STALLS OVER THE FLORIDA PORTION INITIALLY AND THEN SURGES BACK                  
NORTHWARD WITH THE ESTABLISHMENT OF THE BERMUDA HIGH. HIGH END SCT              
POPS FOR THE FLORIDA PORTION SUNDAY AND MONDAY...WITH EVERYONE                  
GETTING IN ON ACT BY MID WEEK.                                                  
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS OUTSIDE OF ISOLD TSTMS.                       
&&                                                                              
.MARINE...LITTLE CHANGE TO PREVIOUS PACKAGE. GENERALLY SOUTHWEST                
WINDS BECOMING MORE S IN THE AFTN. NIGHTTIME WIND SURGES WILL                   
CONTINUE...CAPPED AT 15 KTS. WINDS WILL BECOME MORE ONSHORE BY                  
EARLY NEXT WEEK.                                                                
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
AMG  97  72  97  71 /  30  30  30  30                                           
SSI  92  78  92  76 /  30  40  30  20                                           
JAX  97  74  97  74 /  30  40  30  20                                           
SGJ  94  75  93  75 /  30  30  40  20                                           
GNV  96  72  96  72 /  20  20  30  30                                           
OCF  95  72  94  73 /  20  10  30  30                                           
&&                                                                              
.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
FL...NONE.                                                                      
GA...NONE.                                                                      
AM...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
DEESE/CARROLL                                                                   
</pre> fl                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL                                             
1038 AM CDT FRI JUL 20 2007                                                     
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
ISSUED 1031 AM CDT FRI JUL 20 2007                                              
HIGH PRESSURE IS BUILDING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION THIS                      
MORNING. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS MOVING THROUGH THE                   
REGION AT THE MOMENT... WHICH HAS HELPED TO ENHANCE CU DEVELOPMENT              
ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS OF THE CWA... AS WELL AS SOME CIRRUS WHICH                
IS PUSHING SOUTH OF THE REGION.                                                 
WILL ADJUST WIND SPEED/GUSTS UPWARD A BIT AS GRADIENT REMAINS                   
STRONG ENOUGH TO 10-15 MPH THIS AFTERNOON... POSSIBLY SOME GUSTS                
UP TO 20 MPH.                                                                   
TEMPERATURES SHOULD TOP OUT NO HIGHER THAN 80 DEGREES ACROSS MUCH               
OF THE AREA... AND 80S WILL MOST LIKELY BE SUPPRESSED SOUTH OF A                
PRINCEVILLE-MATTOON-SHELBYVILLE LINE.                                           
WILL SEND OUT ZFP UPDATE BY 11 AM... BUT ONLY IF SIGNIFICANT                    
WORDING CHANGES ARE PRODUCED.                                                   
HARDIMAN                                                                        
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
ISSUED 632 AM CDT FRI JUL 20 2007...FOR THE 12Z TAFS                            
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE IS BUILDING SOUTH INTO ILLINOIS THIS                     
MORNING. SOME SCATTERED STRATOCU CLOUDS HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG A                  
NARROW AXIS OF CHANNELED H5 VORTICITY IN EASTERN IOWA AND NORTHERN              
ILLINOIS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE A THIN LATER OF MOISTURE                  
WILL REMAIN ACROSS OUR AREA TODAY. CU RULE FROM NAM/GFS/ AND RUC                
ALL INDICATING THAT THE HEAT OF THE DAY WILL DEVELOP THAT MOISTURE              
INTO A SCATTERED CU FIELD. EVEN IF A DECK DEVELOPS...IT WILL BE                 
FOR A VERY SHORT TIME...AS THE CU FLATTENS AND DISSIPATES IN THE                
DRY AIR ABOVE AND BELOW THE 4K FT LAYER.                                        
OTHERWISE...LIGHT NORTHEAST WINDS WILL PREVAIL TODAY...WITH CLEAR               
SKIES TONIGHT. NO FOG IS EXPECTED TO CAUSE ANY TRAVEL                           
PROBLEMS...AS DEWPOINTS DROP INTO THE MID 50S.                                  
SHIMON                                                                          
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION...                                                             
ISSUED 222 AM CDT FRI JUL 20 2007                                               
TRANQUIL CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL ACROSS CENTRAL ILLINOIS FOR THE                  
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...AS HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THE WEATHER.                     
06Z SURFACE CHART SHOWS COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED CONVECTION                    
SINKING SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER...AS COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS                   
SETTLES SOUTHWARD OUT OF CANADA. ALOFT...HIGHLY AMPLIFIED PATTERN               
CONTINUES ACROSS THE CONUS...WITH STRONG RIDGING OVER THE                       
ROCKIES/PLAINS AND DEEP TROUGHING ACROSS THE EAST.                              
SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY                                               
HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST WILL DROP               
SOUTHWARD TODAY...PROVIDING PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND LIGHT NORTHEASTERLY          
WINDS. MUCH COOLER WEATHER WILL BE ON TAP...AS 850MB TEMPS ARE                  
PROGGED TO DROP INTO THE 10 TO 12C RANGE. MET NUMBERS IN THE                    
MIDDLE 70S SEEM A LITTLE TOO COOL FOR HIGHS...ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE              
DRY AIRMASS AND AMPLE SUNSHINE. WILL THEREFORE GO A COUPLE OF                   
DEGREES HIGHER...WITH MOST LOCATIONS TOPPING OUT IN THE UPPER 70S               
TO AROUND 80 DEGREES. EXPECT LOW HUMIDITY AS WELL...WITH DEWPOINTS              
ONLY IN THE 50S...AND PERHAPS AS LOW AS THE UPPER 40S GIVEN                     
AFTERNOON MIXING. CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL ALLOW FOR                    
EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL COOLING TONIGHT...SUPPORTING LOWS MAINLY IN               
THE MIDDLE 50S. A FEW LOW-LYING RURAL LOCATIONS MAY EVEN DIP INTO               
THE LOWER 50S.                                                                  
PRETTY MUCH THE SAME WEATHER ON TAP FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...WITH              
TEMPS SLOWLY INCHING UPWARD EACH DAY. SURFACE RIDGE AXIS REMAINS                
FIRMLY IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION...SO SUNSHINE AND LIGHT E/NE                  
WINDS WILL BE THE RULE. AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL CLIMB TO AROUND 80                 
DEGREES...WHILE OVERNIGHT LOWS DROP INTO THE 50S.                               
LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY                                             
QUIET WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...AS                
UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE PLAINS STRENGTHENS AND BUILDS NORTHEASTWARD              
INTO THE GREAT LAKES. MODELS HAVE BEEN HINTING THAT HIGH AMPLITUDE              
RIDGE WILL ACT TO CUT OFF A PIECE OF ENERGY ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC             
STATES EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH THIS FEATURE THEN POSSIBLY WOBBLING               
WESTWARD TOWARD ILLINOIS. BOTH ECMWF AND GFS HAVE BEEN FLIP-FLOPPING            
BACK AND FORTH CONCERNING THE EXACT POSITIONING OF THIS                         
SYSTEM...SO FOR NOW WILL NOT BUY INTO ANY RETROGRESSION OF THE                  
UPPER ENERGY. WILL THEREFORE KEEP EXTENDED DRY...WITH TEMPS RISING              
BACK TO AOA 90 DEGREES BY TUESDAY.                                              
BARNES                                                                          
&&                                                                              
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
NONE.                                                                           
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</pre> il                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL                                             
632 AM CDT FRI JUL 20 2007                                                      
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
ISSUED 222 AM CDT FRI JUL 20 2007                                               
TRANQUIL CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL ACROSS CENTRAL ILLINOIS FOR THE                  
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...AS HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THE WEATHER.                     
06Z SURFACE CHART SHOWS COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED CONVECTION                    
SINKING SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER...AS COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS                   
SETTLES SOUTHWARD OUT OF CANADA. ALOFT...HIGHLY AMPLIFIED PATTERN               
CONTINUES ACROSS THE CONUS...WITH STRONG RIDGING OVER THE                       
ROCKIES/PLAINS AND DEEP TROUGHING ACROSS THE EAST.                              
SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY                                               
HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST WILL DROP               
SOUTHWARD TODAY...PROVIDING PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND LIGHT NORTHEASTERLY          
WINDS. MUCH COOLER WEATHER WILL BE ON TAP...AS 850MB TEMPS ARE                  
PROGGED TO DROP INTO THE 10 TO 12C RANGE. MET NUMBERS IN THE                    
MIDDLE 70S SEEM A LITTLE TOO COOL FOR HIGHS...ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE              
DRY AIRMASS AND AMPLE SUNSHINE. WILL THEREFORE GO A COUPLE OF                   
DEGREES HIGHER...WITH MOST LOCATIONS TOPPING OUT IN THE UPPER 70S               
TO AROUND 80 DEGREES. EXPECT LOW HUMIDITY AS WELL...WITH DEWPOINTS              
ONLY IN THE 50S...AND PERHAPS AS LOW AS THE UPPER 40S GIVEN                     
AFTERNOON MIXING. CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL ALLOW FOR                    
EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL COOLING TONIGHT...SUPPORTING LOWS MAINLY IN               
THE MIDDLE 50S. A FEW LOW-LYING RURAL LOCATIONS MAY EVEN DIP INTO               
THE LOWER 50S.                                                                  
PRETTY MUCH THE SAME WEATHER ON TAP FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...WITH              
TEMPS SLOWLY INCHING UPWARD EACH DAY. SURFACE RIDGE AXIS REMAINS                
FIRMLY IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION...SO SUNSHINE AND LIGHT E/NE                  
WINDS WILL BE THE RULE. AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL CLIMB TO AROUND 80                 
DEGREES...WHILE OVERNIGHT LOWS DROP INTO THE 50S.                               
LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY                                             
QUIET WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...AS                
UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE PLAINS STRENGTHENS AND BUILDS NORTHEASTWARD              
INTO THE GREAT LAKES. MODELS HAVE BEEN HINTING THAT HIGH AMPLITUDE              
RIDGE WILL ACT TO CUT OFF A PIECE OF ENERGY ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC             
STATES EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH THIS FEATURE THEN POSSIBLY WOBBLING               
WESTWARD TOWARD ILLINOIS. BOTH ECMWF AND GFS HAVE BEEN FLIP-FLOPPING            
BACK AND FORTH CONCERNING THE EXACT POSITIONING OF THIS                         
SYSTEM...SO FOR NOW WILL NOT BUY INTO ANY RETROGRESSION OF THE                  
UPPER ENERGY. WILL THEREFORE KEEP EXTENDED DRY...WITH TEMPS RISING              
BACK TO AOA 90 DEGREES BY TUESDAY.                                              
BARNES                                                                          
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
ISSUED 632 AM CDT FRI JUL 20 2007...FOR THE 12Z TAFS                            
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE IS BUILDING SOUTH INTO ILLINOIS THIS                     
MORNING. SOME SCATTERED STRATOCU CLOUDS HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG A                  
NARROW AXIS OF CHANNELED H5 VORTICITY IN EASTERN IOWA AND NORTHERN              
ILLINOIS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE A THIN LATER OF MOISTURE                  
WILL REMAIN ACROSS OUR AREA TODAY. CU RULE FROM NAM/GFS/ AND RUC                
ALL INDICATING THAT THE HEAT OF THE DAY WILL DEVELOP THAT MOISTURE              
INTO A SCATTERED CU FIELD. EVEN IF A DECK DEVELOPS...IT WILL BE                 
FOR A VERY SHORT TIME...AS THE CU FLATTENS AND DISSIPATES IN THE                
DRY AIR ABOVE AND BELOW THE 4K FT LAYER.                                        
OTHERWISE...LIGHT NORTHEAST WINDS WILL PREVAIL TODAY...WITH CLEAR               
SKIES TONIGHT. NO FOG IS EXPECTED TO CAUSE ANY TRAVEL                           
PROBLEMS...AS DEWPOINTS DROP INTO THE MID 50S.                                  
SHIMON                                                                          
&&                                                                              
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
NONE.                                                                           
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</pre> il                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL                                             
1250 PM CDT THU JUL 19 2007                                                     
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
ISSUED 1032 AM CDT THU JUL 19 2007                                              
STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY NOT QUITE STATIONARY...BUT DRIFTING VERY               
SLOWLY SOUTHWARD...OVER NRN ILLINOIS THIS MORNING...WELL BEHIND                 
SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY LEFT OVER FROM THE MCS THAT ROLLED                    
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST. SHOWER ACTIVITY TO                
GET REINFORCED LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING FOR SRN TWO-               
THIRDS OF CWA. AS RESULT...HAVE LEFT MUCH OF FORECAST ALONE...ONLY              
TWEAKING THE TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY. NO MAJOR UPDATES NECESSARY AT               
THIS POINT.                                                                     
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
ISSUED 1244 PM CDT THU JUL 19 2007                                              
NORTHERN TAF SITES TO KEEP MOSTLY VFR THROUGH TONIGHT...WITH THE                
MAJORITY OF THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY SHIFTING SWD. BMI AND CMI                   
STILL FIGHTING WITH REMNANTS OF VCSH. CMI...AND MORE LIKELY SPI                 
AND DEC... MOST LIKELY TO SEE SOME THUNDER ACTIVITY THIS AFTERNOON              
AS MCV TO THE WEST MAKES ITS WAY THROUGH THE REGION. IN THE WAKE                
OF ALL THIS...DRIER AND COOLER AIR IS BEING USHERED BACK INTO THE               
REGION. HOWEVER...THE NORTHERN TAF SITES HAVE THE BEST CHANCE OF                
MIXING OUT SOME MOISTURE... BUT WILL ALSO BE THE FIRST TO CLEAR                 
OUT TONIGHT. CHANCES OF FOG ARE GOOD...BUT ONLY WENT DOWN TO 1SM                
TO START THE TREND. AND WHEREAS THE SRN TAF SITES MAY NOT CLEAR                 
OUT NEARLY AS MUCH...THEY ARE MORE LIKELY TO HAVE THE FRESHEST                  
LLVL MOISTURE TRAPPED AT THE SFC...AND WILL REQUIRE LESS OF A DROP              
IN TEMPS TO FOG UP IN THE MORNING. BEYOND THAT...DRY AIR THRU THE               
COLUMN...SUNNY SKIES FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.                                   
HJS                                                                             
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION...                                                             
ISSUED 225 AM CDT THU JUL 19 2007                                               
AFTER ONE MORE UNSETTLED DAY...COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER WILL                    
RETURN TO CENTRAL ILLINOIS IN TIME FOR THE WEEKEND.                             
06Z SURFACE MAP CONTINUES TO SHOW STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY                      
EXTENDING FROM THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES WESTWARD INTO NORTHERN                  
IOWA. THIS BOUNDARY HAS BEEN THE FOCUS FOR NUMEROUS SHOWERS/STORMS              
ACROSS NORTHERN ILLINOIS OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. FURTHER                   
NORTH...STRONG COLD FRONT IS DROPPING SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE UPPER               
MIDWEST...AIDED BY VIGOROUS SHORT-WAVE DIVING OUT OF CANADA.                    
SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY                                             
CLUSTERS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP                  
ACROSS IOWA...THEN TRACK E/SE ACROSS NORTHERN SECTIONS OF ILLINOIS              
AND INDIANA FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THIS BAND OF PRECIPITATION                  
WILL GRADUALLY SINK SOUTHWARD INTO THE NORTHERN KILX CWA...REACHING             
THE I-74 CORRIDOR BY 12Z. BOTH NAM-WRF/RUC SUGGEST PERIODS OF                   
SHOWERS/STORMS FOR MUCH OF THE MORNING ACROSS THIS AREA...BEFORE                
MAIN FOCUS FOR PRECIP SINKS SOUTHWARD TO NEAR THE I-72 CORRIDOR BY              
MIDDAY. MCS ACTIVITY ACROSS THE NORTH WILL DIMINISH LATER THIS                  
MORNING AS LOW-LEVEL JET WEAKENS...WHICH WILL REDUCE THE THREAT                 
FOR HEAVY RAINFALL.  HOWEVER...GIVEN LATEST RADAR TRENDS AND MODEL              
FORECASTS...WILL EXTEND THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR THE NORTHERN CWA              
THROUGH 18Z.                                                                    
MORNING CONVECTION WILL LEAVE BEHIND NUMEROUS OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES...WHICH        
WILL SERVE AS PRIMARY FOCUS FOR ADDITIONAL CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON.           
ATMOSPHERE ACROSS CENTRAL ILLINOIS WILL BE UNCAPPED AND MODERATELY              
UNSTABLE..WITH CAPE VALUES MAINLY IN THE 1500-2500J/KG RANGE. BEST              
INSTABILITY WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE SE CWA...WHERE CONVECTIVE DEBRIS            
WILL BE THINNEST. LATEST DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK PLACES ALL BUT                
THE FAR NORTHERN CWA IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE TODAY...BUT BASED              
ON EXPECTED TRACK OF MORNING CONVECTION AND PROBABLE LOCATION OF                
OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES...THINK PRIMARY EMPHASIS FOR STRONG TO SEVERE                
STORMS WILL BE SOUTH OF I-72 THIS AFTERNOON.                                    
WITH ALL THE CLOUDS AND RAIN AROUND TODAY...TEMPS WILL BE HELD                  
DOWN QUITE A BIT ACROSS MANY AREAS. NUMERIC GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD                 
AGREEMENT ON HIGHS...BUT WILL CONTINUE THE RECENT TREND OF                      
UNDERCUTTING THE MAV NUMBERS...PRODUCING HIGHS RANGING FROM THE                 
LOWER 80S NORTH TO AROUND 90 FAR SOUTH.                                         
00Z JUL 19 MODELS DIFFER ON SPEED OF FRONT LATER TODAY...WITH NAM-              
WRF BEING SLOWEST. BASED ON STRENGTH OF SHORT-WAVE ON WATER VAPOR               
IMAGERY...THINK FRONT WILL GET A SOLID PUSH SOUTHWARD. WILL                     
THEREFORE FOLLOW THE FASTER AND MORE CONSISTENT GFS FOR FROPA                   
TIMING. WILL CARRY 30 POPS INTO THE EVENING HOURS ACROSS THE                    
CENTRAL ZONES...WITH 50S FURTHER SOUTH. ALL MODELS DRY THINGS OUT               
ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA AFTER MIDNIGHT...BUT WILL HOLD ON TO A 20                 
POP ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-70 IN CASE FRONT SLOWS A BIT.                          
ONCE FRONT SINKS SOUTH OF ILLINOIS...MUCH COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS              
WILL SETTLE INTO THE REGION COURTESY OF CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE.                 
THERMAL PROFILES SUGGEST HIGH TEMPS ONLY IN THE UPPER 70S AND                   
LOWER 80S FOR FRIDAY...WITH MUCH LOWER HUMIDITY VALUES. CLEAR                   
SKIES AND DRY AIRMASS WILL ALLOW OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPS FRIDAY AND                 
SATURDAY TO DIP INTO THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 50S IN MOST LOCATIONS.                 
LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY                                            
QUIET WEATHER EXPECTED IN THE EXTENDED...WITH A GRADUAL WARMING                 
TREND SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE PLAINS                   
BUILDS EASTWARD TOWARD THE MIDWEST NEXT WEEK...HELPING PUSH TEMPS               
BACK TO AROUND THE 90 DEGREE MARK BY TUESDAY.                                   
&&                                                                              
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 1 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ILZ027>031-                 
036>038-041>046-053.                                                            
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</pre> il                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL                                             
243 AM CDT THU JUL 19 2007                                                      
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
ISSUED 225 AM CDT THU JUL 19 2007                                               
AFTER ONE MORE UNSETTLED DAY...COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER WILL                    
RETURN TO CENTRAL ILLINOIS IN TIME FOR THE WEEKEND.                             
06Z SURFACE MAP CONTINUES TO SHOW STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY                      
EXTENDING FROM THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES WESTWARD INTO NORTHERN                  
IOWA. THIS BOUNDARY HAS BEEN THE FOCUS FOR NUMEROUS SHOWERS/STORMS              
ACROSS NORTHERN ILLINOIS OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. FURTHER                   
NORTH...STRONG COLD FRONT IS DROPPING SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE UPPER               
MIDWEST...AIDED BY VIGOROUS SHORT-WAVE DIVING OUT OF CANADA.                    
SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY                                             
CLUSTERS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP                  
ACROSS IOWA...THEN TRACK E/SE ACROSS NORTHERN SECTIONS OF ILLINOIS              
AND INDIANA FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THIS BAND OF PRECIPITATION                  
WILL GRADUALLY SINK SOUTHWARD INTO THE NORTHERN KILX CWA...REACHING             
THE I-74 CORRIDOR BY 12Z. BOTH NAM-WRF/RUC SUGGEST PERIODS OF                   
SHOWERS/STORMS FOR MUCH OF THE MORNING ACROSS THIS AREA...BEFORE                
MAIN FOCUS FOR PRECIP SINKS SOUTHWARD TO NEAR THE I-72 CORRIDOR BY              
MIDDAY. MCS ACTIVITY ACROSS THE NORTH WILL DIMINISH LATER THIS                  
MORNING AS LOW-LEVEL JET WEAKENS...WHICH WILL REDUCE THE THREAT                 
FOR HEAVY RAINFALL.  HOWEVER...GIVEN LATEST RADAR TRENDS AND MODEL              
FORECASTS...WILL EXTEND THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR THE NORTHERN CWA              
THROUGH 18Z.                                                                    
MORNING CONVECTION WILL LEAVE BEHIND NUMEROUS OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES...WHICH        
WILL SERVE AS PRIMARY FOCUS FOR ADDITIONAL CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON.           
ATMOSPHERE ACROSS CENTRAL ILLINOIS WILL BE UNCAPPED AND MODERATELY              
UNSTABLE..WITH CAPE VALUES MAINLY IN THE 1500-2500J/KG RANGE. BEST              
INSTABILITY WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE SE CWA...WHERE CONVECTIVE DEBRIS            
WILL BE THINNEST. LATEST DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK PLACES ALL BUT                
THE FAR NORTHERN CWA IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE TODAY...BUT BASED              
ON EXPECTED TRACK OF MORNING CONVECTION AND PROBABLE LOCATION OF                
OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES...THINK PRIMARY EMPHASIS FOR STRONG TO SEVERE                
STORMS WILL BE SOUTH OF I-72 THIS AFTERNOON.                                    
WITH ALL THE CLOUDS AND RAIN AROUND TODAY...TEMPS WILL BE HELD                  
DOWN QUITE A BIT ACROSS MANY AREAS. NUMERIC GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD                 
AGREEMENT ON HIGHS...BUT WILL CONTINUE THE RECENT TREND OF                      
UNDERCUTTING THE MAV NUMBERS...PRODUCING HIGHS RANGING FROM THE                 
LOWER 80S NORTH TO AROUND 90 FAR SOUTH.                                         
00Z JUL 19 MODELS DIFFER ON SPEED OF FRONT LATER TODAY...WITH NAM-              
WRF BEING SLOWEST. BASED ON STRENGTH OF SHORT-WAVE ON WATER VAPOR               
IMAGERY...THINK FRONT WILL GET A SOLID PUSH SOUTHWARD. WILL                     
THEREFORE FOLLOW THE FASTER AND MORE CONSISTENT GFS FOR FROPA                   
TIMING. WILL CARRY 30 POPS INTO THE EVENING HOURS ACROSS THE                    
CENTRAL ZONES...WITH 50S FURTHER SOUTH. ALL MODELS DRY THINGS OUT               
ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA AFTER MIDNIGHT...BUT WILL HOLD ON TO A 20                 
POP ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-70 IN CASE FRONT SLOWS A BIT.                          
ONCE FRONT SINKS SOUTH OF ILLINOIS...MUCH COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS              
WILL SETTLE INTO THE REGION COURTESY OF CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE.                 
THERMAL PROFILES SUGGEST HIGH TEMPS ONLY IN THE UPPER 70S AND                   
LOWER 80S FOR FRIDAY...WITH MUCH LOWER HUMIDITY VALUES. CLEAR                   
SKIES AND DRY AIRMASS WILL ALLOW OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPS FRIDAY AND                 
SATURDAY TO DIP INTO THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 50S IN MOST LOCATIONS.                 
LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY                                            
QUIET WEATHER EXPECTED IN THE EXTENDED...WITH A GRADUAL WARMING                 
TREND SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE PLAINS                   
BUILDS EASTWARD TOWARD THE MIDWEST NEXT WEEK...HELPING PUSH TEMPS               
BACK TO AROUND THE 90 DEGREE MARK BY TUESDAY.                                   
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
ISSUED 232 AM CDT THU JUL 19 2007                                               
DISCUSSION FOR 06Z TAFS.                                                        
QUASI STATIONARY FRONT ACROSS THE AREA HAS SLOWLY DRIFTED SOUTH                 
OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS... REINFORCED/AIDED BY RAIN COOLED                
AIR / OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM EARLIER CONVECTION. RUC LOW LEVEL                 
THETA SURFACES AND AREA VWP AND PROFILERS INDICATE INCREASING LIFT              
ALONG THE SAGGING BAROCLINIC ZONE OVER WESTERN ILLINOIS.                        
MEANWHILE... WEAKENING MCS OVER CENTRAL IOWA CONTINUES TO DROP                  
SE... AND THIS SHOULD OVERALL HELP THE FOCUS FOR ELEVATED                       
CONVECTION/ STEADIER RAINFALL SHIFT SLOWLY SOUTHWARD OVER THE NEXT              
FEW HOURS... AFFECTING NORTHERN TERMINALS OF PIA/BMI INITIALLY...               
AND EVENTUALLY SHIFTING EASTWARD TO CMI BY 12Z.                                 
WILL BE AMENDING 06Z TAFS SHORTLY TO ACCOUNT FOR LONGER DURATION                
OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDER FOR PIA/BMI AND CMI.                            
AS WEAKENING MCS FROM CENTRAL IA MOVES THROUGH... THIS MAY ALLOW                
THE FRONT ITSELF TO CLEAR THE NORTHERN TERMINALS BY MID-MORNING.                
OVERALL CONDITIONS WILL BE VFR-MVFR... BUT OCCASIONAL VFR IN                    
HEAVIER SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.                                     
FOCUS FOR STRONGER CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON KEEPS SHIFTING                     
FARTHER SOUTH AS MCS ACTIVITY HELPS SHOVE QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT                
FURTHER SOUTHWARD.                                                              
HARDIMAN                                                                        
&&                                                                              
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR ILZ027>031-                   
036>038-041>046-053.                                                            
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</pre> il                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL                                      
245 PM CDT THU JUL 19 2007                                                      
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
MUCH QUIETER WEATHER IS OVERSPREADING THE AREA TODAY.  SUBJECTIVE               
12Z UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATES STRONG UPPER RIDGE EXTENDING FROM              
CO NWD TO NRN CANADA...WITH DIGGING ERN TROUGH AS WELL AS LOW                   
DIGGING OFF THE NW PAC COAST.  850MB LOW WAS CENTERED IN SRN                    
ONT...WITH FRONT THROUGH MI TOWARD THE OH RIVER VALLEY...AND 850MB              
HIGH WAS CENTERED IN SRN AB.  DRIER 850MB AIR WAS PUSHING SWD OUT OF            
THE NRN GREAT LAKES/NRN PLAINS...WITH MOISTURE CONFINED TO S OF THE             
850MB BDRY AND OVER THE ROCKIES IN WAKE OF THE 850MB HIGH.  SURFACE             
FRONT AT 19Z WAS SOUTH OF THE CWA...DRAPED FROM THE SURFACE LOW IN              
NY THROUGH CTRL IN/IL/MO TOWARD A SECONDARY LOW IN SWRN KS/OK                   
PANHANDLE.  SECONDARY BDRY WAS ALSO NOTED FROM SRN LK MI THROUGH THE            
HWY 30 CORRIDOR TOWARD SWRN IA...ALONG A WIND SHIFT AND MOISTURE                
GRADIENT.  SURFACE HIGH WAS CENTERED IN SRN AB/WRN ONT AND DROPPING             
INTO THE DAKOTAS/MN.  SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES BACK EDGE OF                  
STRATUS WORKING THROUGH THE NRN CWA AS OF 19Z...WITH STRATUS                    
THINNING WHERE IT DOES REMAIN...AND CLEAR SKIES WELL N INTO NRN                 
IA/MN/WRN WI/DAKOTAS.                                                           
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND TOMORROW...                                           
MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS ARE FRONTAL PASSAGE TODAY AND POTENTIAL FOR              
FOG TONIGHT.  SECONDARY FRONT HAS DEVELOPED SHOWERS IN THE LAST                 
HOUR...MAINLY IN A LINE FROM KJOT TO KCWI.  NAM/RUC INDICATE UP TO              
2000 J/KG CAPE AHEAD OF THAT BOUNDARY...THUS WILL INCLUDE WORDING               
FOR ISOLATED TSRA THIS EVENING AS THAT BOUNDARY SAGS SOUTH.  BEHIND             
THAT LINE...SKIES CLEAR RAPIDLY.  MOISTURE HAS BEEN SLOW TO SCOUR               
OUT OF THE AREA WITH LINGERING CLOUDS.  SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE NRN CWA            
ARE IN THE LOW 60S...WHILE LOW TO MID 70S REMAIN S OF I-80.  WITH               
CLEARING AND CALMING WINDS AFTER SUNSET...CAN EXPECT TEMP/DEWPOINT              
SPREADS TO BECOME VERY LOW OVERNIGHT EVEN AS DEWPOINTS DROP.                    
SRNMOST CWA MAY ACTUALLY REMAIN CLOUDY FOR A GOOD PART OF THE NIGHT             
AND NOT DROP AS QUICKLY.  HAVE INCLUDED FOG WORDING IN GRIDS...WITH             
AREAS N OF I-80 AND PATCHY S.  POTENTIAL IS THERE FOR SOME LOCALLY              
DENSE FOG...AND WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED.  WITH LIKELIHOOD OF FOG              
AS WELL AS RELUCTANCE OF MOISTURE TO SCOUR OUT...HAVE INCREASED                 
DEWPOINTS AND MIN TEMPS OVERNIGHT...THOUGH STILL DOWN INTO THE LOW              
50S IN THE NRN CWA.  WITH COOLER 850MB TEMPS /10-12C/ SPREADING INTO            
THE CWA TMRW...TEMPS SHOULD STRUGGLE TO GET OUT OF THE 70S.  DRIER              
AIR WILL HELP THE JULY SUN DO ITS WORK...BUT WET GROUND AND COOLER              
MID-LEVL TEMPS WILL WORK AGAINST IT.  HAVE KEPT MAX TEMP FORECAST               
ABOUT THE SAME AS PREVIOUS...BUT DID INCREASE DEWPOINTS SLIGHTLY                
WITH VERY WET GROUND AFTER A WEEK OF ABUNDANT RAINFALL.  ALSO KEPT              
SKIES CLEAR WITH SUBSIDENCE AND DRY MID/UPPER-LEVEL AIRMASS UPSTREAM.           
MAYES                                                                           
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM...TOMORROW NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...                                 
LARGE 500MB RIDGE WILL SET UP OVER THE NATION/S MID-SECTION THROUGH             
THE PERIOD WITH A DRY SURFACE CANADIAN HIGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES                
SLOWLY SHIFTING OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST STATES.  LOW HUMIDITY                      
LEVELS...LIGHT WINDS...AND GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES WILL BE THE STORY              
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.   THE GFS IS BRINGING A POCKET OF UPPER 30 TO              
MID 40 SFC DEWPOINTS DOWN ACROSS PARTS OF NW ILLINOIS SATURDAY                  
MORNING...WHILE THE NAM HAS THEM IN THE MID 50S.  CURRENTLY SEEING              
DEWPOINT TEMPS ACROSS ONTARIO...SOURCE REGION OF HIGH...IN THE MID              
40S.  BELIEVE WITH SURFACE LAYER SO MOIST FROM ALL THE RECENT                   
RAINS...THE GFS IS OVERDONE...BUT UPPER 40 TO LOW 50 SFC DEWPOINTS              
NOT UNREASONABLE.  THUS...POTENTIAL FOR NEAR RECORD                             
MINS...ESPECIALLY NEAR DUBUQUE...STILL EXISTS.  SEE CHART BELOW.                
A GRADUAL WARMING TREND WILL COMMENCE SUNDAY ALONG WITH AN INCREASE             
IN HUMIDITY LEVELS...AS SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW...ALBEIT WEAK...GETS            
RE-ESTABLISHED ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE DEPARTING HIGH.  BELIEVE                  
GUIDANCE IS OVERDONE ON WARM-UP DUE TO HIGH MOISTURE LEVELS...THUS              
HAVE LOWERED TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD A TOUCH.  OTHERWISE...NO MAJOR            
CHANGES.                                                                        
   RECORD MINS 7/21                                                             
----------------------                                                          
BURLINGTON    51 1970+                                                          
CEDAR RAPIDS  47 1944                                                           
DUBUQUE       50 1882                                                           
MOLINE        50 1944                                                           
14                                                                              
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
MVFR TO IFR CIGS LINGERING AT KMLI/KBRL ARE GIVING WAY TO VFR                   
CONDITIONS. MAY SEE 2SM OR LOWER FOG FORM AT KDBQ/KCID/KMLI TONIGHT             
WITH CALMING CONDITIONS...FALLING TEMPS...AND LOTS OF MOISTURE NEAR             
THE GROUND.  AFTER 12-13Z...FOG SHOULD LIFT AND LEAVE VFR CONDITIONS            
THROUGH TOMORROW.                                                               
MAYES                                                                           
&&                                                                              
.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
IA...NONE.                                                                      
IL...NONE.                                                                      
MO...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
MAYES/14                                                                        
</pre> ia                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS                                             
631 PM CDT FRI JUL 20 2007                                                      
.UPDATE...                                                                      
RUC AND EXTRAPOLATED LAPS DATA SUGGEST A REMOTE CHANCE FOR A FEW                
STORMS AS FAR WEST AS ELLSWORTH TO HUTCH TO GREATER WICHITA UNTIL               
DARK. HOWEVER BETTER CHANCE FOR ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED                    
STORMS TO CONTINUE THIS EVENING FOR THE FLINT HILLS AND SOUTHEAST               
KANSAS.                                                                         
KED                                                                             
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
FOR THE 00Z TAF SUITE...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST            
VALID TIME...OUTSIDE OF ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION. THE            
KCNU AND KSLN TAF SITES WILL BE MOST IMPACTED...MAINLY THIS                     
EVENING WITH THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.                                         
KED                                                                             
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 248 PM CDT FRI JUL 20 2007/                         
DISCUSSION...                                                                   
FORECAST CHALLENGES ARE PRECIPITATION CHANCES TONIGHT AND                       
TEMPERATURES FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.                                             
TONIGHT:                                                                        
CURRENT VISIBLE SATELLITE SHOWS CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT ACROSS MUCH OF              
KANSAS...AS WELL AS THE REMNANTS OF AN MCV OVER SOUTHWEST KANSAS.               
THE WARM FRONT THAT WAS ACROSS KANSAS YESTERDAY HAS WASHED OUT AND              
THERE ARE REALLY NO INDICATIONS OF A BOUNDARY ANYMORE. TEMPERATURES             
HAVE BEEN ABLE TO CLIMB A COUPLE DEGREES HIGHER THAN WE EXPECTED                
TODAY...BUT WERE STILL A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. A FEW SHOWERS AND            
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPED ALONG AN INSTABILITY AXIS THAT STRETCHES                
ACROSS SOUTHEAST KANSAS...BUT THEY QUICKLY WEAKENED. THIS TREND IS              
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WERE              
TRIMMED BACK TO JUST SOUTHEAST KANSAS OVERNIGHT.                                
SATURDAY-SUNDAY:                                                                
SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW AT THE SURFACE CONTINUES THROUGH THE            
WEEKEND...AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT IS MAINLY FOCUSED INTO SOUTHWEST               
KANSAS. THERE REMAINS SOME WEAK FORCING IN THE MID-LEVELS ACROSS                
SOUTHEAST KANSAS...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW THAT MORE THAN AN ISOLATED             
STORM OR TWO WILL BE ABLE TO DEVELOP.                                           
1000-850MB THICKNESSES SUPPORT AT OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL                      
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEKEND...THEREFORE WE BROUGHT MAXIMUM                 
TEMPERATURES DOWN JUST A BIT TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS AND THE FACT                   
THAT IT HAS BEEN A STRUGGLE TO GET ABOVE THE LOW 90S ACROSS THE                 
FORECAST AREA WITH THE EXCEPTION OF CENTRAL KANSAS THIS SUMMER.                 
MONDAY-THURSDAY:                                                                
UPPER RIDGE IN PLACE DURING THIS TIME...WITH DRY WEATHER EXPECTED.              
THERE ARE SOME HINTS AT SOME WEAK RIPPLES IN THE FLOW...HOWEVER WITH            
TIMING AND TRACK OF THESE IMPULSES SURE TO CHANGE QUITE A BIT IN THE            
NEXT FEW DAYS...OPTED TO KEEP THE FORECAST DRY FOR NOW. 1000-850MB              
THICKNESSES DO NOT SUPPORT MID-90S FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST                     
AREA...RATHER LOW 90S...SO WE LOWERED MAX TEMPERATURES A COUPLE                 
DEGREES TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE STRUGGLE WE HAVE               
HAD THIS YEAR TO MAKE IT ABOVE THE LOW 90S THIS YEAR.                           
SCHRECK                                                                         
AVIATION...FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE                                                 
LATEST RADAR LOOP IS SHOWING SEVERAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS                  
STARTING TO DEVELOP ALONG THE INSTABILITY AXIS STRETCHING FROM                  
CHANUTE TOWARDS SALINA. WE HAVE INTRODUCED A TEMPO TSRA GROUP FOR               
THE CHANUTE TAF THIS AFTERNOON...BUT WE HAVE HELD OFF AT SALINA                 
UNTIL WE SEE A LITTLE MORE EVIDENCE. THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF                   
SITES WILL SEE MAINLY CUMULUS THIS AFTERNOON...BUT YOU CANNOT RULE              
OUT A STORM OR TWO IN THE VICINITY. THIS THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY                  
SHOULD BEGIN TO DIE OFF AFTER SUNSET. WE DID MENTION SOME PATCHY                
BR IN THE CHANUTE TAF TOWARDS SUNRISE SINCE THERE IS A LOT OF LOW               
LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE ALONG WITH SOME DECOUPLING ACCORDING TO                 
THE GFS.                                                                        
COX                                                                             
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
WICHITA-KICT    68  93  70  93 /  20  10  10  10                                
HUTCHINSON      69  93  70  93 /  10  10  10  10                                
NEWTON          68  92  69  93 /  20  10  10  10                                
ELDORADO        67  92  69  92 /  30  10  10  10                                
WINFIELD-KWLD   69  93  70  92 /  20  10  10  10                                
RUSSELL         69  93  70  95 /  10   0  10  10                                
GREAT BEND      69  94  70  94 /  10  10  10  10                                
SALINA          67  92  69  93 /  20  10  10  10                                
MCPHERSON       68  93  69  93 /  20  10  10  10                                
COFFEYVILLE     67  92  68  90 /  30  20  10  10                                
CHANUTE         66  91  67  90 /  30  20  10  10                                
IOLA            66  91  67  90 /  30  10  10  10                                
PARSONS-KPPF    66  92  68  90 /  30  20  10  10                                
&&                                                                              
.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
NONE.                                                                           
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</pre> ks                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS                                            
207 PM MDT FRI JUL 20 2007                                                      
.SHORT TERM... (TONIGHT - MONDAY)                                               
PRIMARILY A TEMPERATURE FORECAST WITH UPPER RIDGING IN PLACE.                   
EASTERLY SURFACE WINDS WILL VEER TO SOUTH TONIGHT AS SURFACE HIGH               
SLIDES AWAY TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES. HOWEVER EASTERLY COMPONENT WILL            
PERSIST ACROSS NORTHEAST CORNER OF THE CWA THROUGH 12Z                          
SATURDAY...AND THAT IS WHERE RUC INSISTS ON FOG DEVELOPING. NAM                 
PAINTS SIMILAR PICTURE. GIVEN HIGH SURFACE DEW POINTS AND CLEARING              
SKIES HARD TO ARGUE AGAINST THAT SCENARIO. ON SATURDAY...PRESSURE               
GRADIENT TIGHTENS AS LEE TROUGH DEVELOPS IN EASTERN COLORADO UNDER              
RIDGE ALOFT. EXPECT TO SEE BREEZY CONDITIONS WEST OF HIGHWAY 83 AND             
INTO EASTERN COLORADO BY THE AFTERNOON. VERY LITTLE CHANGES ON                  
SUNDAY...BUT WINDS DO LOOK TO COME DOWN WHILE 850MB TEMPERATURES                
NUDGE A BIT HIGHER. AGAIN NO PRECIPITATION EXPECTED. ON                         
MONDAY...MODELS ACTUALLY DROP A FEW DEGREES C AT 850. APPEARS CWA               
MAY BENEFIT FROM SLIGHT COLD ADVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH SHORTWAVE                
COMING AROUND THE RIDGE AND MOVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS EASTERN KANSAS.             
GIVEN GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT WILL TRIM A BIT OFF THE TOP FOR MONDAY               
TEMPERATURES.                                                                   
.LONG TERM... (TUESDAY - FRIDAY)                                                
SPRAWLING 595DAM UPPER RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL             
DOMINATE THIS FORECAST PERIOD. JET/STORM TRACK WILL BE FAR NORTH IN             
CENTRAL CANADA. PACIFIC NORTHWEST DISTURBANCES WILL HAVE TO RIDE UP             
AND OVER THE RIDGE...PRECLUDING ANY SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT FOR                     
PRECIPITATION IN THE LOCAL AREA. INTERESTING FEATURE OVER THE EAST              
COAST...WHERE CUT OFF LOW FORECAST BY THE ECMWF TO RETROGRADE AS FAR            
WEST AS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY BY MIDWEEK...CAUGHT                  
BETWEEN THE NORTHERN PLAINS RIDGE AND BERMUDA HIGH. STILL...SHOULD              
NOT PROGRESS MUCH FURTHER WEST AND NOT BE A LOCAL FACTOR. SO GENERAL            
FLAVOR OF THE LONG TERM WILL BE HOT AND DRY. GOOD AGREEMENT BETWEEN             
THE MODELS WITH 850MB TEMPERATURES STEADILY RISING FROM THE UPPER               
20S CELSIUS TO LOWER 30S BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. THIS WILL                    
TRANSLATE TO SURFACE TEMPERATURES STEADILY RISING THROUGH THE 90S               
AND LIKELY REACHING TRIPLE DIGITS AGAIN BY LATE IN THE PERIOD.                  
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION... LOW DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS AFTER 09Z WILL PRODUCE IFR               
CEILINGS/VISIBILITIES AT KMCK. RUC MODEL HANDLES THIS TREND WELL.               
VISIBILITIES/CEILINGS MAY DROP AT KGLD ALSO...BUT THERE MAY BE                  
ENOUGH MIXING TO KEEP CONDITIONS IN THE MVFR CATEGORY.                          
&&                                                                              
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
KS...NONE.                                                                      
NE...NONE.                                                                      
CO...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
JDK/JDK/SAM                                                                     
</pre> ks                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS                                             
1249 PM CDT FRI JUL 20 2007                                                     
.UPDATE...                                                                      
WE ARE RAISING POPS FOR THIS AFTERNOON MAINLY ALONG THE NORTHEAST               
SECTION OF OUR FORECAST AREA.                                                   
LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS/LAPS DATA IS SHOWING AN INSTABILITY AXIS                
STRETCHING FROM JUST NORTHEAST OF SALINA TO NEAR IOLA. MIXED LAYER              
CAPES ACROSS THIS REGION IS ON THE ORDER OF 2000-2500J/KG.                      
HOWEVER...NEODESHA AND HILLSBORO PROFILERS ARE SHOWING VERY                     
LITTLE IF ANY SHEAR. THEREFORE...I WOULD ANTICIPATE MOST OF THESE               
STORMS TO BE HEAVY RAINFALL PRODUCERS WITH AN ISOLATED WIND GUST                
UP TO 40 MPH POSSIBLE. RAINFALL AMOUNTS COULD EXCEED AN INCH IN                 
SOME OF THESE HEAVY DOWNPOURS.                                                  
COX                                                                             
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1235 PM CDT FRI JUL 20 2007/                        
AVIATION...FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE                                                 
LATEST RADAR LOOP IS SHOWING SEVERAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS                  
STARTING TO DEVELOP ALONG THE INSTABILITY AXIS STRETCHING FROM                  
CHANUTE TOWARDS SALINA. WE HAVE INTRODUCED A TEMPO TSRA GROUP FOR               
THE CHANUTE TAF THIS AFTERNOON...BUT WE HAVE HELD OFF AT SALINA                 
UNTIL WE SEE A LITTLE MORE EVIDENCE. THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF                   
SITES WILL SEE MAINLY CUMULUS THIS AFTERNOON...BUT YOU CANNOT RULE              
OUT A STORM OR TWO IN THE VICINITY. THIS THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY                  
SHOULD BEGIN TO DIE OFF AFTER SUNSET. WE DID MENTION SOME PATCHY                
BR IN THE CHANUTE TAF TOWARDS SUNRISE SINCE THERE IS A LOT OF LOW               
LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE ALONG WITH SOME DECOUPLING ACCORDING TO                 
THE GFS.                                                                        
COX                                                                             
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1154 AM CDT FRI JUL 20 2007/                         
UPDATE...                                                                       
WE ARE SENDING OUT A QUICK UPDATE TO RAISE TEMPERATURES. LAPS DATA              
AND SURFACE ANALYSIS ARE SHOWING THE INSTABILITY AXIS SETTING UP                
FROM CENTRAL INTO SOUTHEAST KANSAS. WE MAY NEED TO TWEAK POPS IN                
THE NEAR FUTURE. OTHERWISE...WE RAISED TEMPERATURES A COUPLE OF                 
DEGREES TO REFLECT THE CURRENT TRENDS. TEMPERATURES SHOULD                      
STABILIZE EARLY THIS AFTERNOON ONCE THE CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURE IS REACHED.      
COX                                                                             
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 939 AM CDT FRI JUL 20 2007/                          
UPDATE...                                                                       
WE ARE SENDING OUT AN UPDATE TO LOWER POPS THIS MORNING AND THIS                
AFTERNOON.                                                                      
LATEST WATER VAPOR LOOP IS SHOWING THE REMNANTS OF THE MESOSCALE                
CONVECTIVE SYSTEM (MCS) OVER CENTRAL KANSAS. THIS MCS HAS INDUCED A             
MID LEVEL MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE VORT LOBE (MCV)OVER THIS SAME REGION             
THIS MORNING. THE LATEST RUC/NAM-WRF ARE SHIFTING THIS MCV SOUTH                
INTO THE SOUTHWEST PART OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON. AS A               
RESULT...WE COULD SEE A FEW STORMS DEVELOP MAINLY ALONG AND                     
SOUTHWEST OF A GREAT BEND TO WINFIELD LINE. THE REMAINDER OF THE                
AREA...WILL BE MOSTLY DRY EXCEPT FOR A ISOLATED STORM OR TWO DUE TO             
WEAK CONVECTIVE INHIBITION AND A WEAK BOUNDARY (NEARLY WASHED OUT)              
SITUATED IN THE NORTHEAST SECTION OF OUR FORECAST AREA. WE ALSO                 
LOWERED POPS CONSIDERABLY DURING THE MORNING TIME FRAME.                        
COX                                                                             
DISCUSSION...                                                                   
WE ARE SENDING OUT AN UPDATE TO LOWER POPS THIS MORNING AND THIS                
AFTERNOON.                                                                      
LATEST WATER VAPOR LOOP IS SHOWING THE REMNANTS OF THE MESOSCALE                
CONVECTIVE SYSTEM (MCS) OVER CENTRAL KANSAS. THIS MCS HAS INDUCED A             
MID LEVEL MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE VORT LOBE (MCV)OVER THIS SAME REGION             
THIS MORNING. THE LATEST RUC/NAM-WRF ARE SHIFTING THIS MCV SOUTH                
INTO THE SOUTHWEST PART OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON. AS A               
RESULT...WE COULD SEE A FEW STORMS DEVELOP MAINLY ALONG AND                     
SOUTHWEST OF A GREAT BEND TO WINFIELD LINE. THE REMAINDER OF THE                
AREA...WILL BE MOSTLY DRY EXCEPT FOR A ISOLATED STORM OR TWO DUE TO             
WEAK CONVECTIVE INHIBITION AND A WEAK BOUNDARY (NEARLY WASHED OUT)              
SITUATED IN THE NORTHEAST SECTION OF OUR FORECAST AREA. WE ALSO                 
LOWERED POPS CONSIDERABLY DURING THE MORNING TIME FRAME.                        
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 552 AM CDT FRI JUL 20 2007/                          
AVIATION...                                                                     
UPDATE FOR 12Z TAFS...EXPECTING MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS TODAY WITH                
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS AFFECTING SOME TAF SITES AT TIMES FOR THE               
MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS. THE THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD GRADUALLY                 
TAPER OFF ACROSS THE AREA AFTER 00Z.                                            
JAKUB                                                                           
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 318 AM CDT FRI JUL 20 2007/                          
DISCUSSION...                                                                   
FORECAST CONCERNS ARE CONVECTION CHANCE FOR TODAY AND INTO TONIGHT.             
TODAY:                                                                          
THIS MORNING A BAND OF THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL              
KANSAS. THIS IS WHERE A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY WAS LOCATED AND THE               
310K INDICATED FAIRLY GOOD ISENTROPIC LIFT. THE SURFACE BOUNDARY                
WILL DOMINATE OUR WEATHER THROUGH THE DAY. CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO            
INCREASE THIS MORNING AND ARE ALREADY SEEING EVIDENCE OF THAT AS THE            
ALTOCUMULS CLOUDS OVER SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS EXPAND BOTH IN COVERAGE             
AND VERTICAL EXTENT. BY AFTERNOON THE BOUNDARY SHOULD EXTEND FROM               
NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA TO WEST CENTRAL KANSAS. KEPT CHANCES OF                      
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE ENTIRE AREA TODAY...BUT BY LATE AFTERNOON                
SHOULD SEE THE BEST CHANCES OF STORMS CONFINED TO THE SOUTHERN HALF             
OF THE AREA AS THE BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO DRIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST.                
MAINTAINED THE HIGH TEMPERATURE FORECAST AS IS...WITH HIGHS IN THE              
MID 80S MOST AREAS CONSIDERING THE AMOUNT OF CLOUDS AND CHANCES OF              
THUNDERSTORMS.                                                                  
SATURDAY:                                                                       
LOOKS AS THOUGH BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO WASH OUT AS SURFACE HIGH              
PRESSURE DOMINATES THE AREA. LEFT SOME SLIGHT CHANCES FOR                       
THUNDERSTORMS IN SOUTHEAST KANSAS WHERE SURFACE MOISTURE AND UPSLOPE            
FLOW IS GREATEST. REMAINDER OF THE AREA SHOULD BE DRY.                          
SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY:                                                          
WILL KEEP THIS TIME FRAME DRY FOR NOW...BUT POSSIBLE MESOSCALE                  
CONVECTIVE VORT MAXES COULD DRIFT INTO THE AREA AGAIN FROM THE NORTH            
AND EAST. NOT REAL CONFIDENT THIS PERIOD WILL BE COMPLETELY DRY.                
WITH UPPER RIDGE IN PLACE...AM PRETTY CONFIDENT THAT TEMPS WILL BE              
AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS.                                            
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY:                                                       
CURRENT FORECAST ON TRACK WITH A CONTINUATION OF BEING DOMINATED BY             
THE UPPER RIDGE. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A WEAK IMPULSE GETTING                 
CAUGHT UNDER THE RIDGE AND DRIFTING BACK WEST INTO ARKANSAS AND                 
OKLAHOMA BY THURSDAY...WHICH COULD LEAD TO SOME SCATTERED CONVECTION            
BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. KEPT THE LOW POPS FOR THUNDERSTORMS IN                   
SOUTHEAST KANSAS WITH SEASONAL TEMPERATURES.                                    
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
WICHITA-KICT    90  68  91  70 /  30  20  10  10                                
HUTCHINSON      90  69  91  70 /  40  20  10  10                                
NEWTON          89  68  90  69 /  40  20  10  10                                
ELDORADO        89  67  90  69 /  40  20  10  10                                
WINFIELD-KWLD   90  69  91  70 /  30  20  20  10                                
RUSSELL         89  69  91  70 /  30  10  10  10                                
GREAT BEND      90  69  92  70 /  30  20  10  10                                
SALINA          88  67  90  69 /  30  10  10  10                                
MCPHERSON       89  68  91  69 /  40  20  10  10                                
COFFEYVILLE     88  67  90  68 /  40  20  20  10                                
CHANUTE         87  66  89  67 /  40  20  20  10                                
IOLA            87  66  89  67 /  40  20  10  10                                
PARSONS-KPPF    88  66  90  68 /  40  20  20  10                                
&&                                                                              
.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
NONE.                                                                           
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</pre> ks                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS                                             
1235 PM CDT FRI JUL 20 2007                                                     
.AVIATION...FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE                                                
LATEST RADAR LOOP IS SHOWING SEVERAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS                  
STARTING TO DEVELOP ALONG THE INSTABILITY AXIS STRETCHING FROM                  
CHANUTE TOWARDS SALINA. WE HAVE INTRODUCED A TEMPO TSRA GROUP FOR               
THE CHANUTE TAF THIS AFTERNOON...BUT WE HAVE HELD OFF AT SALINA                 
UNTIL WE SEE A LITTLE MORE EVIDENCE. THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF                   
SITES WILL SEE MAINLY CUMULUS THIS AFTERNOON...BUT YOU CANNOT RULE              
OUT A STORM OR TWO IN THE VICINITY. THIS THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY                  
SHOULD BEGIN TO DIE OFF AFTER SUNSET. WE DID MENTION SOME PATCHY                
BR IN THE CHANUTE TAF TOWARDS SUNRISE SINCE THERE IS A LOT OF LOW               
LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE ALONG WITH SOME DECOUPLING ACCORDING TO                 
THE GFS.                                                                        
COX                                                                             
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1154 AM CDT FRI JUL 20 2007/                        
UPDATE...                                                                       
WE ARE SENDING OUT A QUICK UPDATE TO RAISE TEMPERATURES. LAPS DATA              
AND SURFACE ANALYSIS ARE SHOWING THE INSTABILITY AXIS SETTING UP                
FROM CENTRAL INTO SOUTHEAST KANSAS. WE MAY NEED TO TWEAK POPS IN                
THE NEAR FUTURE. OTHERWISE...WE RAISED TEMPERATURES A COUPLE OF                 
DEGREES TO REFLECT THE CURRENT TRENDS. TEMPERATURES SHOULD                      
STABILIZE EARLY THIS AFTERNOON ONCE THE CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURE IS REACHED.      
COX                                                                             
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 939 AM CDT FRI JUL 20 2007/                          
UPDATE...                                                                       
WE ARE SENDING OUT AN UPDATE TO LOWER POPS THIS MORNING AND THIS                
AFTERNOON.                                                                      
LATEST WATER VAPOR LOOP IS SHOWING THE REMNANTS OF THE MESOSCALE                
CONVECTIVE SYSTEM (MCS) OVER CENTRAL KANSAS. THIS MCS HAS INDUCED A             
MID LEVEL MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE VORT LOBE (MCV)OVER THIS SAME REGION             
THIS MORNING. THE LATEST RUC/NAM-WRF ARE SHIFTING THIS MCV SOUTH                
INTO THE SOUTHWEST PART OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON. AS A               
RESULT...WE COULD SEE A FEW STORMS DEVELOP MAINLY ALONG AND                     
SOUTHWEST OF A GREAT BEND TO WINFIELD LINE. THE REMAINDER OF THE                
AREA...WILL BE MOSTLY DRY EXCEPT FOR A ISOLATED STORM OR TWO DUE TO             
WEAK CONVECTIVE INHIBITION AND A WEAK BOUNDARY (NEARLY WASHED OUT)              
SITUATED IN THE NORTHEAST SECTION OF OUR FORECAST AREA. WE ALSO                 
LOWERED POPS CONSIDERABLY DURING THE MORNING TIME FRAME.                        
COX                                                                             
DISCUSSION...                                                                   
WE ARE SENDING OUT AN UPDATE TO LOWER POPS THIS MORNING AND THIS                
AFTERNOON.                                                                      
LATEST WATER VAPOR LOOP IS SHOWING THE REMNANTS OF THE MESOSCALE                
CONVECTIVE SYSTEM (MCS) OVER CENTRAL KANSAS. THIS MCS HAS INDUCED A             
MID LEVEL MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE VORT LOBE (MCV)OVER THIS SAME REGION             
THIS MORNING. THE LATEST RUC/NAM-WRF ARE SHIFTING THIS MCV SOUTH                
INTO THE SOUTHWEST PART OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON. AS A               
RESULT...WE COULD SEE A FEW STORMS DEVELOP MAINLY ALONG AND                     
SOUTHWEST OF A GREAT BEND TO WINFIELD LINE. THE REMAINDER OF THE                
AREA...WILL BE MOSTLY DRY EXCEPT FOR A ISOLATED STORM OR TWO DUE TO             
WEAK CONVECTIVE INHIBITION AND A WEAK BOUNDARY (NEARLY WASHED OUT)              
SITUATED IN THE NORTHEAST SECTION OF OUR FORECAST AREA. WE ALSO                 
LOWERED POPS CONSIDERABLY DURING THE MORNING TIME FRAME.                        
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 552 AM CDT FRI JUL 20 2007/                          
AVIATION...                                                                     
UPDATE FOR 12Z TAFS...EXPECTING MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS TODAY WITH                
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS AFFECTING SOME TAF SITES AT TIMES FOR THE               
MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS. THE THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD GRADUALLY                 
TAPER OFF ACROSS THE AREA AFTER 00Z.                                            
JAKUB                                                                           
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 318 AM CDT FRI JUL 20 2007/                          
DISCUSSION...                                                                   
FORECAST CONCERNS ARE CONVECTION CHANCE FOR TODAY AND INTO TONIGHT.             
TODAY:                                                                          
THIS MORNING A BAND OF THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL              
KANSAS. THIS IS WHERE A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY WAS LOCATED AND THE               
310K INDICATED FAIRLY GOOD ISENTROPIC LIFT. THE SURFACE BOUNDARY                
WILL DOMINATE OUR WEATHER THROUGH THE DAY. CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO            
INCREASE THIS MORNING AND ARE ALREADY SEEING EVIDENCE OF THAT AS THE            
ALTOCUMULS CLOUDS OVER SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS EXPAND BOTH IN COVERAGE             
AND VERTICAL EXTENT. BY AFTERNOON THE BOUNDARY SHOULD EXTEND FROM               
NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA TO WEST CENTRAL KANSAS. KEPT CHANCES OF                      
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE ENTIRE AREA TODAY...BUT BY LATE AFTERNOON                
SHOULD SEE THE BEST CHANCES OF STORMS CONFINED TO THE SOUTHERN HALF             
OF THE AREA AS THE BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO DRIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST.                
MAINTAINED THE HIGH TEMPERATURE FORECAST AS IS...WITH HIGHS IN THE              
MID 80S MOST AREAS CONSIDERING THE AMOUNT OF CLOUDS AND CHANCES OF              
THUNDERSTORMS.                                                                  
SATURDAY:                                                                       
LOOKS AS THOUGH BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO WASH OUT AS SURFACE HIGH              
PRESSURE DOMINATES THE AREA. LEFT SOME SLIGHT CHANCES FOR                       
THUNDERSTORMS IN SOUTHEAST KANSAS WHERE SURFACE MOISTURE AND UPSLOPE            
FLOW IS GREATEST. REMAINDER OF THE AREA SHOULD BE DRY.                          
SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY:                                                          
WILL KEEP THIS TIME FRAME DRY FOR NOW...BUT POSSIBLE MESOSCALE                  
CONVECTIVE VORT MAXES COULD DRIFT INTO THE AREA AGAIN FROM THE NORTH            
AND EAST. NOT REAL CONFIDENT THIS PERIOD WILL BE COMPLETELY DRY.                
WITH UPPER RIDGE IN PLACE...AM PRETTY CONFIDENT THAT TEMPS WILL BE              
AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS.                                            
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY:                                                       
CURRENT FORECAST ON TRACK WITH A CONTINUATION OF BEING DOMINATED BY             
THE UPPER RIDGE. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A WEAK IMPULSE GETTING                 
CAUGHT UNDER THE RIDGE AND DRIFTING BACK WEST INTO ARKANSAS AND                 
OKLAHOMA BY THURSDAY...WHICH COULD LEAD TO SOME SCATTERED CONVECTION            
BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. KEPT THE LOW POPS FOR THUNDERSTORMS IN                   
SOUTHEAST KANSAS WITH SEASONAL TEMPERATURES.                                    
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
WICHITA-KICT    90  68  91  70 /  30  20  10  10                                
HUTCHINSON      90  69  91  70 /  40  20  10  10                                
NEWTON          89  68  90  69 /  40  20  10  10                                
ELDORADO        89  67  90  69 /  40  20  10  10                                
WINFIELD-KWLD   90  69  91  70 /  30  20  20  10                                
RUSSELL         89  69  91  70 /  30  10  10  10                                
GREAT BEND      90  69  92  70 /  30  20  10  10                                
SALINA          88  67  90  69 /  30  10  10  10                                
MCPHERSON       89  68  91  69 /  40  20  10  10                                
COFFEYVILLE     88  67  90  68 /  40  20  20  10                                
CHANUTE         87  66  89  67 /  40  20  20  10                                
IOLA            87  66  89  67 /  40  20  10  10                                
PARSONS-KPPF    88  66  90  68 /  40  20  20  10                                
&&                                                                              
.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
NONE.                                                                           
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</pre> ks                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS                                             
1154 AM CDT FRI JUL 20 2007                                                     
.UPDATE...                                                                      
WE ARE SENDING OUT A QUICK UPDATE TO RAISE TEMPERATURES. LAPS DATA              
AND SURFACE ANALYSIS ARE SHOWING THE INSTABILITY AXIS SETTING UP                
FROM CENTRAL INTO SOUTHEAST KANSAS. WE MAY NEED TO TWEAK POPS IN                
THE NEAR FUTURE. OTHERWISE...WE RAISED TEMPERATURES A COUPLE OF                 
DEGREES TO REFLECT THE CURRENT TRENDS. TEMPERATURES SHOULD                      
STABILIZE EARLY THIS AFTERNOON ONCE THE CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURE IS REACHED.      
COX                                                                             
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 939 AM CDT FRI JUL 20 2007/                         
UPDATE...                                                                       
WE ARE SENDING OUT AN UPDATE TO LOWER POPS THIS MORNING AND THIS                
AFTERNOON.                                                                      
LATEST WATER VAPOR LOOP IS SHOWING THE REMNANTS OF THE MESOSCALE                
CONVECTIVE SYSTEM (MCS) OVER CENTRAL KANSAS. THIS MCS HAS INDUCED A             
MID LEVEL MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE VORT LOBE (MCV)OVER THIS SAME REGION             
THIS MORNING. THE LATEST RUC/NAM-WRF ARE SHIFTING THIS MCV SOUTH                
INTO THE SOUTHWEST PART OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON. AS A               
RESULT...WE COULD SEE A FEW STORMS DEVELOP MAINLY ALONG AND                     
SOUTHWEST OF A GREAT BEND TO WINFIELD LINE. THE REMAINDER OF THE                
AREA...WILL BE MOSTLY DRY EXCEPT FOR A ISOLATED STORM OR TWO DUE TO             
WEAK CONVECTIVE INHIBITION AND A WEAK BOUNDARY (NEARLY WASHED OUT)              
SITUATED IN THE NORTHEAST SECTION OF OUR FORECAST AREA. WE ALSO                 
LOWERED POPS CONSIDERABLY DURING THE MORNING TIME FRAME.                        
COX                                                                             
DISCUSSION...                                                                   
WE ARE SENDING OUT AN UPDATE TO LOWER POPS THIS MORNING AND THIS                
AFTERNOON.                                                                      
LATEST WATER VAPOR LOOP IS SHOWING THE REMNANTS OF THE MESOSCALE                
CONVECTIVE SYSTEM (MCS) OVER CENTRAL KANSAS. THIS MCS HAS INDUCED A             
MID LEVEL MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE VORT LOBE (MCV)OVER THIS SAME REGION             
THIS MORNING. THE LATEST RUC/NAM-WRF ARE SHIFTING THIS MCV SOUTH                
INTO THE SOUTHWEST PART OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON. AS A               
RESULT...WE COULD SEE A FEW STORMS DEVELOP MAINLY ALONG AND                     
SOUTHWEST OF A GREAT BEND TO WINFIELD LINE. THE REMAINDER OF THE                
AREA...WILL BE MOSTLY DRY EXCEPT FOR A ISOLATED STORM OR TWO DUE TO             
WEAK CONVECTIVE INHIBITION AND A WEAK BOUNDARY (NEARLY WASHED OUT)              
SITUATED IN THE NORTHEAST SECTION OF OUR FORECAST AREA. WE ALSO                 
LOWERED POPS CONSIDERABLY DURING THE MORNING TIME FRAME.                        
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 552 AM CDT FRI JUL 20 2007/                          
AVIATION...                                                                     
UPDATE FOR 12Z TAFS...EXPECTING MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS TODAY WITH                
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS AFFECTING SOME TAF SITES AT TIMES FOR THE               
MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS. THE THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD GRADUALLY                 
TAPER OFF ACROSS THE AREA AFTER 00Z.                                            
JAKUB                                                                           
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 318 AM CDT FRI JUL 20 2007/                          
DISCUSSION...                                                                   
FORECAST CONCERNS ARE CONVECTION CHANCE FOR TODAY AND INTO TONIGHT.             
TODAY:                                                                          
THIS MORNING A BAND OF THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL              
KANSAS. THIS IS WHERE A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY WAS LOCATED AND THE               
310K INDICATED FAIRLY GOOD ISENTROPIC LIFT. THE SURFACE BOUNDARY                
WILL DOMINATE OUR WEATHER THROUGH THE DAY. CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO            
INCREASE THIS MORNING AND ARE ALREADY SEEING EVIDENCE OF THAT AS THE            
ALTOCUMULS CLOUDS OVER SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS EXPAND BOTH IN COVERAGE             
AND VERTICAL EXTENT. BY AFTERNOON THE BOUNDARY SHOULD EXTEND FROM               
NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA TO WEST CENTRAL KANSAS. KEPT CHANCES OF                      
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE ENTIRE AREA TODAY...BUT BY LATE AFTERNOON                
SHOULD SEE THE BEST CHANCES OF STORMS CONFINED TO THE SOUTHERN HALF             
OF THE AREA AS THE BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO DRIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST.                
MAINTAINED THE HIGH TEMPERATURE FORECAST AS IS...WITH HIGHS IN THE              
MID 80S MOST AREAS CONSIDERING THE AMOUNT OF CLOUDS AND CHANCES OF              
THUNDERSTORMS.                                                                  
SATURDAY:                                                                       
LOOKS AS THOUGH BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO WASH OUT AS SURFACE HIGH              
PRESSURE DOMINATES THE AREA. LEFT SOME SLIGHT CHANCES FOR                       
THUNDERSTORMS IN SOUTHEAST KANSAS WHERE SURFACE MOISTURE AND UPSLOPE            
FLOW IS GREATEST. REMAINDER OF THE AREA SHOULD BE DRY.                          
SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY:                                                          
WILL KEEP THIS TIME FRAME DRY FOR NOW...BUT POSSIBLE MESOSCALE                  
CONVECTIVE VORT MAXES COULD DRIFT INTO THE AREA AGAIN FROM THE NORTH            
AND EAST. NOT REAL CONFIDENT THIS PERIOD WILL BE COMPLETELY DRY.                
WITH UPPER RIDGE IN PLACE...AM PRETTY CONFIDENT THAT TEMPS WILL BE              
AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS.                                            
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY:                                                       
CURRENT FORECAST ON TRACK WITH A CONTINUATION OF BEING DOMINATED BY             
THE UPPER RIDGE. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A WEAK IMPULSE GETTING                 
CAUGHT UNDER THE RIDGE AND DRIFTING BACK WEST INTO ARKANSAS AND                 
OKLAHOMA BY THURSDAY...WHICH COULD LEAD TO SOME SCATTERED CONVECTION            
BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. KEPT THE LOW POPS FOR THUNDERSTORMS IN                   
SOUTHEAST KANSAS WITH SEASONAL TEMPERATURES.                                    
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
WICHITA-KICT    90  68  91  70 /  30  20  10  10                                
HUTCHINSON      90  69  91  70 /  40  20  10  10                                
NEWTON          89  68  90  69 /  40  20  10  10                                
ELDORADO        89  67  90  69 /  40  20  10  10                                
WINFIELD-KWLD   90  69  91  70 /  30  20  20  10                                
RUSSELL         89  69  91  70 /  30  10  10  10                                
GREAT BEND      90  69  92  70 /  30  20  10  10                                
SALINA          88  67  90  69 /  30  10  10  10                                
MCPHERSON       89  68  91  69 /  40  20  10  10                                
COFFEYVILLE     88  67  90  68 /  40  20  20  10                                
CHANUTE         87  66  89  67 /  40  20  20  10                                
IOLA            87  66  89  67 /  40  20  10  10                                
PARSONS-KPPF    88  66  90  68 /  40  20  20  10                                
&&                                                                              
.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
NONE.                                                                           
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</pre> ks                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS                                             
939 AM CDT FRI JUL 20 2007                                                      
.UPDATE...                                                                      
WE ARE SENDING OUT AN UPDATE TO LOWER POPS THIS MORNING AND THIS                
AFTERNOON.                                                                      
LATEST WATER VAPOR LOOP IS SHOWING THE REMNANTS OF THE MESOSCALE                
CONVECTIVE SYSTEM (MCS) OVER CENTRAL KANSAS. THIS MCS HAS INDUCED A             
MID LEVEL MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE VORT LOBE (MCV)OVER THIS SAME REGION             
THIS MORNING. THE LATEST RUC/NAM-WRF ARE SHIFTING THIS MCV SOUTH                
INTO THE SOUTHWEST PART OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON. AS A               
RESULT...WE COULD SEE A FEW STORMS DEVELOP MAINLY ALONG AND                     
SOUTHWEST OF A GREAT BEND TO WINFIELD LINE. THE REMAINDER OF THE                
AREA...WILL BE MOSTLY DRY EXCEPT FOR A ISOLATED STORM OR TWO DUE TO             
WEAK CONVECTIVE INHIBITION AND A WEAK BOUNDARY (NEARLY WASHED OUT)              
SITUATED IN THE NORTHEAST SECTION OF OUR FORECAST AREA. WE ALSO                 
LOWERED POPS CONSIDERABLY DURING THE MORNING TIME FRAME.                        
COX                                                                             
&&                                                                              
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
WE ARE SENDING OUT AN UPDATE TO LOWER POPS THIS MORNING AND THIS                
AFTERNOON.                                                                      
LATEST WATER VAPOR LOOP IS SHOWING THE REMNANTS OF THE MESOSCALE                
CONVECTIVE SYSTEM (MCS) OVER CENTRAL KANSAS. THIS MCS HAS INDUCED A             
MID LEVEL MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE VORT LOBE (MCV)OVER THIS SAME REGION             
THIS MORNING. THE LATEST RUC/NAM-WRF ARE SHIFTING THIS MCV SOUTH                
INTO THE SOUTHWEST PART OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON. AS A               
RESULT...WE COULD SEE A FEW STORMS DEVELOP MAINLY ALONG AND                     
SOUTHWEST OF A GREAT BEND TO WINFIELD LINE. THE REMAINDER OF THE                
AREA...WILL BE MOSTLY DRY EXCEPT FOR A ISOLATED STORM OR TWO DUE TO             
WEAK CONVECTIVE INHIBITION AND A WEAK BOUNDARY (NEARLY WASHED OUT)              
SITUATED IN THE NORTHEAST SECTION OF OUR FORECAST AREA. WE ALSO                 
LOWERED POPS CONSIDERABLY DURING THE MORNING TIME FRAME.                        
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 552 AM CDT FRI JUL 20 2007/                         
AVIATION...                                                                     
UPDATE FOR 12Z TAFS...EXPECTING MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS TODAY WITH                
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS AFFECTING SOME TAF SITES AT TIMES FOR THE               
MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS. THE THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD GRADUALLY                 
TAPER OFF ACROSS THE AREA AFTER 00Z.                                            
JAKUB                                                                           
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 318 AM CDT FRI JUL 20 2007/                          
DISCUSSION...                                                                   
FORECAST CONCERNS ARE CONVECTION CHANCE FOR TODAY AND INTO TONIGHT.             
TODAY:                                                                          
THIS MORNING A BAND OF THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL              
KANSAS. THIS IS WHERE A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY WAS LOCATED AND THE               
310K INDICATED FAIRLY GOOD ISENTROPIC LIFT. THE SURFACE BOUNDARY                
WILL DOMINATE OUR WEATHER THROUGH THE DAY. CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO            
INCREASE THIS MORNING AND ARE ALREADY SEEING EVIDENCE OF THAT AS THE            
ALTOCUMULS CLOUDS OVER SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS EXPAND BOTH IN COVERAGE             
AND VERTICAL EXTENT. BY AFTERNOON THE BOUNDARY SHOULD EXTEND FROM               
NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA TO WEST CENTRAL KANSAS. KEPT CHANCES OF                      
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE ENTIRE AREA TODAY...BUT BY LATE AFTERNOON                
SHOULD SEE THE BEST CHANCES OF STORMS CONFINED TO THE SOUTHERN HALF             
OF THE AREA AS THE BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO DRIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST.                
MAINTAINED THE HIGH TEMPERATURE FORECAST AS IS...WITH HIGHS IN THE              
MID 80S MOST AREAS CONSIDERING THE AMOUNT OF CLOUDS AND CHANCES OF              
THUNDERSTORMS.                                                                  
SATURDAY:                                                                       
LOOKS AS THOUGH BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO WASH OUT AS SURFACE HIGH              
PRESSURE DOMINATES THE AREA. LEFT SOME SLIGHT CHANCES FOR                       
THUNDERSTORMS IN SOUTHEAST KANSAS WHERE SURFACE MOISTURE AND UPSLOPE            
FLOW IS GREATEST. REMAINDER OF THE AREA SHOULD BE DRY.                          
SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY:                                                          
WILL KEEP THIS TIME FRAME DRY FOR NOW...BUT POSSIBLE MESOSCALE                  
CONVECTIVE VORT MAXES COULD DRIFT INTO THE AREA AGAIN FROM THE NORTH            
AND EAST. NOT REAL CONFIDENT THIS PERIOD WILL BE COMPLETELY DRY.                
WITH UPPER RIDGE IN PLACE...AM PRETTY CONFIDENT THAT TEMPS WILL BE              
AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS.                                            
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY:                                                       
CURRENT FORECAST ON TRACK WITH A CONTINUATION OF BEING DOMINATED BY             
THE UPPER RIDGE. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A WEAK IMPULSE GETTING                 
CAUGHT UNDER THE RIDGE AND DRIFTING BACK WEST INTO ARKANSAS AND                 
OKLAHOMA BY THURSDAY...WHICH COULD LEAD TO SOME SCATTERED CONVECTION            
BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. KEPT THE LOW POPS FOR THUNDERSTORMS IN                   
SOUTHEAST KANSAS WITH SEASONAL TEMPERATURES.                                    
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
WICHITA-KICT    87  68  91  70 /  30  20  10  10                                
HUTCHINSON      87  69  91  70 /  40  20  10  10                                
NEWTON          86  68  90  69 /  40  20  10  10                                
ELDORADO        86  67  90  69 /  40  20  10  10                                
WINFIELD-KWLD   87  69  91  70 /  30  20  20  10                                
RUSSELL         87  69  91  70 /  30  10  10  10                                
GREAT BEND      87  69  92  70 /  30  20  10  10                                
SALINA          86  67  90  69 /  30  10  10  10                                
MCPHERSON       86  68  91  69 /  40  20  10  10                                
COFFEYVILLE     86  67  90  68 /  40  20  20  10                                
CHANUTE         85  66  89  67 /  40  20  20  10                                
IOLA            85  66  89  67 /  40  20  10  10                                
PARSONS-KPPF    86  66  90  68 /  40  20  20  10                                
&&                                                                              
.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
NONE.                                                                           
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</pre> ks                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS                                              
915 PM CDT THU JUL 19 2007                                                      
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
HAVE UPDATED FORECAST TO KEEP SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS               
GOING THROUGH THE NIGHT TONIGHT. 00Z RUC AND 18Z NAM SHOW ISENTROPIC            
LIFT CONTINUING THROUGH THE NIGHT OVER THE STALL BOUNDARY...WHICH               
AT 02Z WAS SOMEWHERE NEAR SLN TO OTTAWA. WITH LIMITED ELEVATED                  
INSTABILITY INDICATED ON FORECAST SOUNDINGS...THIS LIFT SHOULD BE               
ENOUGH TO KEEP PRECIP DEVELOPING. A LACK OF SHEAR AND WEAK                      
INSTABILITY SHOULD YIELD MULTI CELL CLUSTERS WITH SLOW STORM                    
MOTIONS. THEREFORE WILL NEED TO WATCH OUT FOR PERIODS OF HEAVY                  
RAIN...AS PWS FROM EVENING SOUNDING STILL GREATER THAN 1.75 INCHES.             
&&                                                                              
WOLTERS                                                                         
.PREV DISCUSSION /335 PM CDT/...                                                
SHOWERS AND STORMS STRUGGLING TO DEVELOP OVER THE CWA TODAY. UPPER              
SHORTWAVE PUSHING FRONT SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE CWA ATTM...HOWEVER                 
DEBRIS CLOUDS AND OUTFLOWS FROM OVERNIGHT CONVECTION IN NEBRASKA                
HAVE REALLY KEPT A LID ON THE INSTABILITY TODAY.  LAPSE RATES IN THE            
18Z SOUNDING NOT TERRIBLY IMPRESSIVE AS WELL.                                   
WILL KEEP CHANCE POPS FOR THE EVENING HOURS MAINLY ALONG AND SOUTH              
OF INTERSTATE 70. FRONT PROGGED TO MOVE SLOWLY SOUTHWARD...THEN                 
STALL ACROSS SOUTHERN KANSAS BY EARLY FRIDAY. SOUTHERN COUNTIES HAVE            
HAD BETTER SUNSHINE TODAY...HOWEVER CLOUDS NOW MOVING IN AND TEMPS              
STILL IN THE MID 80S SUGGESTING CONVECTION WILL LIKELY STRUGGLE                 
THERE AS WELL. WITH 1600 J/KG CAPE IN THE SOUNDING AND STILL NEARLY             
2 INCHES OF WATER...COULD STILL SEE A STRONGER STORM OR TWO ACROSS              
OUR SOUTH BEFORE THE EVENING IS OUT.                                            
ISENTROPIC LIFT OVER THE BOUNDARY STAYS TO OUR SOUTH OVERNIGHT...AND            
WILL KEEP POP CHANCES FOR THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES BASED MAINLY ON AN              
UNCERTAIN FRONTAL POSITION. HIGH PRESSURE ESTABLISHES ACROSS THE                
GREAT LAKES AND WILL BRING COOLER AND SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR INTO THE               
STATE FROM THE NORTHEAST BY LATE FRIDAY. BIG QUESTION MAY BE                    
TEMPS...AS GUIDANCE DIFFERS ON CLOUD COVER AND THEREFORE HIGHS.                 
HAVE GONE TOWARDS A COOLER SOLUTION GIVEN CURRENT STATE OF THE                  
AIRMASS AND THINKING SOME CU AND STRATUS WILL REMAIN.                           
FOR SATURDAY AND BEYOND...LONG RANGE MODELS CUT OFF UPPER HIGH OVER             
THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND SLOWLY DRIFT IT EWD.  THIS KEEPS US IN                  
NLY/NELY UPPER FLOW THROUGH THE NEXT WEEK.  MODELS STRUGGLING WITH              
WHATEVER MINOR WAVES THAT MAY AFFECT FORECAST AREA.  RESIDUAL                   
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND DISSIPATING BOUNDARY IN THE VICINITY COULD               
LEAD TO DIURNALLY DRIVEN ISOLATED/WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS                
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AFTERNOON.  BOTH GFS AND NAM WOULD SHOW SOME                
PRECIP CHANCES SATURDAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS EC KS...AND NAM TRIES TO            
DEVELOP MCS SATURDAY NIGHT OVER IA...THAT IT DRIFTS SSWD INTO ERN KS            
ON SUNDAY.  HOWEVER...HAVE OPTED TO KEEP SUNDAY DRY AT THIS TIME AS             
UPPER VORT MAX THAT AFFECTS AREA SUNDAY IN NAM...COMPLETELY                     
DEPENDENT ON DEVELOPMENT OF IA MCS.  WHILE ISOLATED AFTN                        
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS IN TROPICAL AIRMASS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION               
FOR MON THROUGH WED...THERE REALLY IS NOTHING TO LATCH ONTO TO                  
INDICATE ANY ORGANIZATION OR TO POINT TO ANY DAY BEING MORE                     
FAVORABLE THAN ANOTHER.  ECMWF FROM 00Z AND TO A LESSER EXTENT 00               
AND 06Z GFS INDICATED A WWD MOVING WAVE THAT COULD AFFECT PARTS OF              
THE CENTRAL PLAINS/MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY NEXT THURSDAY.  NEW ECMWF              
DOES NOT AGREE WITH THIS...BUT HAVE ADDED LOW POPS FOR NEXT THURSDAY            
IN EC KS BASED ON PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS.                                          
WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN AIRMASS OVER NEXT WEEK...TEMPERATURES EXPECTED            
TO BE MAINLY IN LOWER TO MIDDLE 90S WITH LOWS IN THE MID 60S TO LOW             
70S.                                                                            
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
CONCERN THIS EVENING IS WHETHER CONVECTION WILL MOVE INTO TAF SITES.            
MHK WILL BE CLOSER TO THE ISENTROPIC LIFT AND HAVE INCLUDED A TEMP              
FOR TS. WILL MONITOR TOP AND FOE...BUT HAVE OPTED TO BE OPTIMISTIC              
AND KEEP TS OUT. OTHER CONCERN IS STCU DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT FROM THE            
ISENTROPIC LIFT AND POSSIBLY PRODUCING SOME MVFR CIGS. CURRENT OBS              
SHOW STCU AROUND 6 KFT. SINCE MODELS SHOW DEEPER MOISTURE ALREADY               
BEHIND THE FRONT WITH RELATIVELY DRYER AIR ADVECTING NORTH...WILL               
KEEP CIGS VFR FOR NOW...EXCEPT FOR SOME MVFR CIGS WITHIN THE TS.                
&&                                                                              
WOLTERS                                                                         
.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                        
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</pre> ks                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS                                            
200 AM MDT THU JUL 19 2007                                                      
.DISCUSSION...FORECAST CONCERNS ARE TEMPERATURES/PRECIPITATION AND              
LOW CIGS (AVIATION) IN THE SHORT TERM.                                          
.SHORT TERM (TODAY-SATURDAY NIGHT)...                                           
TODAY-TONIGHT...UPPER DISTURBANCE EMBEDDED WITHIN NEARLY NORTHERLY              
FLOW ALOFT CURRENTLY OVER WESTERN NEBRASKA WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT               
THROUGH THE AREA TODAY. WILL HAVE TO DEAL WITH STRATUS AND/OR SOME              
LOW CLOUDINESS MUCH OF THE DAY AS WELL AS GUSTY NORTHEAST POST                  
FRONTAL WINDS. THIS WILL MAKE FOR A DIFFICULT TEMPERATURE                       
FORECAST. PRECIPITATION FORECAST WILL BE DIFFICULT TOO. DESPITE                 
LIMITED INHIBITION ACROSS PARTS OF THE AREA (DEPENDANT ON CLOUD                 
COVER) AND SOME CAPE FORCING LOOKS TO BE ALONG THE FRONT WHICH                  
WOULD FAVOR FAR SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA. WILL MAINTAIN SOME SLIGHT               
CHANCE POPS GENERALLY SOUTH OF THE INTERSTATE. FOR TONIGHT PROBLEM              
TURNS TO RETURN OF STRATUS. NAM/GFS/RUC13 ALL HAVE SATURATED                    
BOUNDARY LAYER CONDITIONS OVER VARIOUS PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA.              
FOR NOW HAVE STARTED WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST CLOUD GRIDS...ESP                   
AFTER 06Z AND INCREASED THEM TO SOMEWHAT MIMIC THE RUC13 CEILING                
FORECAST. BASED ON 2M/MOS AND 850 TEMPERATURES WILL GO FOR MID 80S              
NORTH TO MID 90S SOUTH FOR HIGHS.                                               
FRIDAY-FRIDAY NIGHT...DAY WILL START OUT WITH CONSIDERABLE                      
CLOUDINESS ACROSS THE EAST AND SOUTH...DISSIPATING SOMEWHAT DURING              
THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS. NAM RESATURATES THE BOUNDARY LAYER                    
SUGGESTING WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUDINESS FRIDAY NIGHT WHILE THE GFS IS              
MUCH LESS AGGRESSIVE. FOR NOW WILL GO WITH THE LESS AGGRESSIVE                  
SOLUTION WHICH MATCHES UP BETTER WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES. WE HAVE              
THE NGM/NAM COOL TEMPERATURES AT 850 ANOTHER FEW DEGREES WHILE THE              
GFS/UKMET WARM THEM A FEW DEGREES. AVERAGING THEM AND THE 2M/MOS                
GUIDANCE NUMBERS PRODUCES A HIGH TEMP FORECAST VERY CLOSE TO                    
CURRENTLY ADVERTISED ONE SO LITTLE CHANGE NEEDED RIGHT NOW.                     
SATURDAY-SATURDAY NIGHT...GOOD AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE UKMET/GFS/NAM              
ON WARMING TEMPERATURES WITH 850 TEMPS SUPPORTING HIGHS AROUND 95               
ACROSS THE AREA.                                                                
.LONG TERM (SUNDAY-WEDNESDAY)...                                                
SUNDAY-MONDAY...LITTLE CHANGE AT 850MB SUNDAY WITH THE                          
GFS/DGEX/ECWMF SHOWING +32C ACROSS THE WESTERN FORECAST TO +25C                 
ACROSS THE EAST...SUPPORTING GENERALLY MID 90S WITH MAYBE SOME                  
UPPER 90S ACROSS THE WEST. ON MONDAY THE 3 MODELS DO SHOW 850                   
TEMPS JUST A FEW DEGREES COOLER SO GIVEN THE CONSENSUS I BUMPED                 
THEM DOWN JUST A FEW DEGREES WITH READINGS STILL IN THE MID 90S.                
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
CIGS BELOW 1K FEET WILL REACH THE KGLD TERMINAL AROUND 11Z AND                  
CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST 18Z BEFORE BECOMING SCATTERED SHORTLY                 
THEREAFTER. FOR THE KMCK AREA EXPECT THE LOW CIGS AROUND 12Z OR SO              
AND LASTING THROUGH AT LEAST 20Z OR SO. ANY SCT CIGS AROUND 1K                  
THAT DEVELOP WILL BECOME BKN EARLY TONIGHT AS UPSLOPE FLOW                      
CONTINUES. EXPECT CIGS BELOW 1K FT THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY.                          
&&                                                                              
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
KS...NONE.                                                                      
NE...NONE.                                                                      
CO...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
DDT/DDT/DDT                                                                     
</pre> ks                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
312 AM EDT FRI JUL 20 2007                                                      
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
ARRIVAL OF AMPLIFIED UPR RDG FROM THE PLAINS AND BUILDING 5H HEIGHTS            
WILL RESULT IN DRY WEATHER AT LEAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND ALONG WITH A            
GRADUAL WARMING TREND.                                                          
TODAY...POSITION OF SFC RDG AXIS TO THE W WILL RESULT IN A LIGHT                
NRLY FLOW ACROSS MUCH OF THE FCST AREA. 8H TEMPS OF 7-9C WILL RESULT            
IN INLAND HIGHS AROUND 70F WITH COOLER TEMPS(60S) FOR LAKE SUPERIOR             
SHORELINE AREAS.                                                                
EXPECT A STEADY WARMING TREND THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS THE CENTER OF              
THE SFC HI IS PROGGED TO SLIDE INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES BY SUN AND            
SETUP A RETURN SW FLOW. H85 TEMPS ARE FCST TO INCREASE ABOUT 2C EACH            
DAY...FM 12-14C SAT TO 14-16C ON SUN. THE HI PRES CENTER WL BE CLOSE            
ENOUGH ON SAT TO ALLOW LK BREEZES TO FORM...BUT STRONGER SSW FLOW ON            
SUN WL TEND TO MINIMIZE LAKE INFLUENCE EXCEPT FOR AREAS DOWNSTREAM              
OF LAKE MI EAST OF KESC. KEPT GOING FCST HIGH TEMPS SLIGHTLY ABV MOS            
GUIDANCE WITH INLAND READINGS AROUND 80F ON SAT AND 80-85F ON SUN.              
THE 00Z GFS AND CANADIAN STILL SHOW HINT OF A WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVING             
THROUGH THE AMPLIFIED RDG ALONG WITH ASSOC WEAK SFC COLD FRONT                  
APPROACHING INTO THE FCST AREA. ALTHOUGH IT WILL BE HARD FOR A                  
SHORTWAVE TO BREAK DOWN SUCH AN AMPLIFIED RDG...DECIDED TO KEEP IN              
GOING SLIGHT CHC POPS FOR MON GIVEN THAT GFS/CANADIAN HAVE PERSISTED            
WITH THIS SOLN FOR LAST FEW RUNS.                                               
COORDINATED WITH GRB.                                                           
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION (FOR THE 06Z TAF ISSUANCE)...                                         
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND RUC/NAM SFC-850 MB RH PROGS SUGGEST POTENTIAL             
FOR SOME SCT-BKN CLOUDS AT BOTH SITES. HOWEVER...EXPECT CIGS TO REMAIN          
IN THE VFR RANGE...GENERALLY 040-050. SCT-BKN CU MAY ALSO DEVELOP               
AGAIN LATER TODAY UNTIL THE 850 MB THERMAL TROF DEPARTS...LEAVING               
DRIER AIR...ACYC NRLY FLOW....AND CLEARING SKIES. NEVERTHELESS...VFR            
CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE TO PREVAIL.                                          
&&                                                                              
.MARINE (FOR 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)...                           
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD OVER THE UPPER LAKES THIS MORNING.             
THIS HIGH WILL STAY PUT OVER THE GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE WEEKEND.               
AFTER TODAY WITH LINGERING NW WINDS...EXPECT LIGHT S/SW WINDS WITH              
LK BREEZE COMPONENTS DEVELOPING SAT AND SUN AFTN. MAY BE A WEAK SFC             
TROUGH COME THROUGH MON NIGHT OR TUE...BUT CURRENT INDICATIONS                  
SUGGEST MAIN WIND SHIFT COULD REMAIN TO THE NORTH OVER ONTARIO. FOR             
NOW...S/SW WINDS WELL BELOW 20 KT COVERS IT JUST FINE.                          
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
PUBLIC...VOSS                                                                   
AVIATION...JLB                                                                  
MARINE...JLA                                                                    
</pre> mi                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
137 AM EDT FRI JUL 20 2007                                                      
UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR 06Z TAFS                                        
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC SHOWING A LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER EASTERN              
CANADA...A STEEP RIDGE OVER THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS AND THE                    
CANADIAN PRAIRIES...AND ANOTHER LONGWAVE TROUGH OFF THE PACIFIC                 
NORTHWEST. A SHORTWAVE ROTATING AROUND THE BASE OF THE EASTERN                  
CANADIAN TROUGH IS MOVING THROUGH SOUTHEASTERN ONTARIO AND                      
NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN. ANOTHER MUCH WEAKER SHORTWAVE SLIDING DOWN             
THE LEE OF THE RIDGE IS JUST NORTH OF THE MINNESOTA ARROWHEAD.                  
SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWING A LOW MOVING THROUGH THE LOWER GREAT LAKES             
DRAGGING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI AND NORTHERN               
OHIO RIVER VALLEYS. A HIGH BUILDING OVER SOUTHEAST MANITOBA AND                 
WESTERN ONTARIO IS EXPANDING INTO THE FORECAST AREA. THE SHORTWAVE              
OVER THE FORECAST AREA IS PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND                       
THUNDERSTORMS OVER EASTERN ONTARIO AND EASTERN U.P. PRODUCING                   
UPSLOPE CONDITIONS OFF OF LAKE SUPERIOR IS PRODUCE AREAS OF DRIZZLE             
AND LIGHT RAIN OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NORTH CENTRAL U.P.                    
.SHORT TERM DISCUSSION (TNGT AND FRI)...                                        
THE SHORTWAVE OVER THE ARROWHEAD WILL CONTINUE TO HEAD SOUTHEAST                
INTO THE FORECAST AREA AS THE STRONGER SHORTWAVE SHIFTS INTO                    
NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN THIS AFTERNOON. DRIER AIR WILL ADVECT INTO              
THE FORECAST AREA BY LATE EVENING. IN THE MEAN TIME...WARM AIR                  
ADVECTION AROUND 800MB WILL PRODUCE AN INVERSION WHICH WILL MAKE A              
CAP LIMITING ANY THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPMENT ESPECIALLY OVER THE                  
WESTERN U.P. HOWEVER...THERE IS STILL ENOUGH MOISTURE PRESENT AND A             
STRONG ENOUGH CAP ENOUGH TO PREVENT PRECIPITATION. UPSLOPE OVER                 
EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR MAKE PRODUCE A SLIGHT OF RAIN OVER THE HIGH               
TERRAIN OF CENTRAL U.P. THIS EVENING. ALSO WILL KEEP A SLIGHT                   
MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER LUCE COUNTY THROUGH EARLY EVENING. GFS            
SHOWING DRY AIR MOVING IN THIS EVENING. WINDS OUT OF THE NORTH TODAY            
PRODUCED SOME RIP CURRENT ON THE LAKE SUPERIOR BEACHES BETWEEN                  
MARQUETTE AND GRAND MARAIS. THESE WILL DIMINISH TO A LIGHT RISK BY              
LATE EVENING AS WINDS AND WAVES DIE DOWN.                                       
THE LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL PUSH INTO WESTERN QUEBEC ON FRIDAY...WHILE             
THE CANADIAN PRAIRIE RIDGE WANDERS INTO MANITOBA. THE SURFACE HIGH              
WILL SETTLE OVER UPPER MICHIGAN ON FRIDAY. GRADIENTS WILL WEAKEN AND            
DRY AIR WILL ACCOMPANY THE HIGH. THUS WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT ON                
MONDAY. GFS FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT FEW CUMULUS CLOUDS WILL             
DEVELOP OVER THE WESTERN U.P. BUT FOR THE MOST PART THE SKIES WILL              
BE MOSTLY SUNNY.                                                                
.LONG TERM DISCUSSION (FRI NGT THRU THU)...                                     
FA FCST TO BE UNDER DOMINATION OF BLDG UPR HGTS IN THE FRI NGT THRU             
SUN PD UNDER SHARPENING UPR RDG ON THE SRN FLANK OF MAIN BAND OF                
WESTERLIES FCST TO SHIFT ACRS CNTRL CAN AND BTWN BUBBLE OF HOT AIR              
IN THE PLAINS AND TROF CUTTING OFF OVER THE E. FRI NGT SHOULD BE ON             
THE COOL SIDE WITH SFC HI PRES CENTER MOVING TO NRN LK MI BY 12Z SAT            
AND LGT WINDS OVER THE FA. GFS/NAM FCST SDNGS HINT SOME MID/HI CLD              
WL MOVE IN ESPECIALLY OVER THE E ON SRN FLANK OF BETTER WAD IN                  
ONTARIO...BUT HARD TO IMAGINE ANY AC/CI WL BE THICK ENUF TO IMPACT              
DIURNAL TEMP DROP WITH RISING HGTS/SHARPENING RDG AXIS UPSTREAM. SO             
TENDED TOWARD THE LO END OF MOS GUIDANCE...ESPECIALLY OVER THE                  
INTERIOR SCNTRL/E CLOSER TO WEAKER PRES GRADIENT THRU 12Z. THEN                 
EXPECT A STEADY WARMING TREND THRU THE WEEKEND AS CENTER OF SFC HI              
PRES PROGGED TO DIP INTO THE LOWER LKS BY SUN AND SETUP A RETURN SW             
FLOW. H85 TEMPS FCST TO INCRS ABOUT 2C EACH DAY...FM ARND 10C ON FRI            
TO 14C ON SAT AND 16C ON SUN. HI PRES CENTER WL BE CLOSE ENUF ON SAT            
TO ALLOW LK BREEZES TO FORM...BUT STRONGER WSW FLOW ON SUN WL TEND              
TO MINIMIZE LK INFLUENCE EXCEPT DOWNSTREAM OF LK MI MAINLY E OF ESC.            
UPR RDG CENTERED OVER THE PLAINS AND ABV NORMAL TEMPS WL DOMINATE               
THE MEDIUM/EXTENDED PD WITH MAIN BELT OF WESTERLIES TO THE N IN CAN.            
HOWEVER...VARIOUS MODEL RUNS HINT AT A BACKDOOR COOL FROPA EARLY NXT            
WEEK WHEN GFS SHOWS H5 TEMPS DIPPING A BIT TO ARND -8C OR -9C IN                
MORE NLY ALF BTWN HI AMPLITUDE RDG/BUBBLE OF HOT AIR OVER THE PLAINS            
AND UPR TROF SOMEWHERE IN THE ERN CONUS. 12Z GFS/CNDN MODELS ALSO               
SHOW DISTURBANCE IMPACTING THE FA ON MON WITH FAIRLY IMPRESSIVE H85             
THETA-E ADVCTN WHILE LOWER H5 TEMPS STILL IN PLACE. FOLLOWED NCEP               
LEAD AND INTRODUCED SCHC POPS FOR MON. FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF THIS            
SHRTWV...UPR RDG FCST TO BLD INTO THE UPR LKS. GIVEN HI HGTS/H5                 
TEMPS IN THE -6 TO -7C RANGE/CAPPING AT H85 WITH TEMPS IN THE 20-24C            
RANGE...SUSPECT ANY SHRA WL BE FEW AND FAR BTWN IN THE ABSENCE OF               
DYNAMICS AFT MON WITH LARGE MAJORITY OF GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS SHOWING            
HIER HGTS TOWARD MIDWEEK. WL GO WITH DRY FCST FOR TUE THRU NEXT THU.            
TENDED TOWARD THE HI END OF GFS MOS GUIDANCE AFT MON FOR MAX TEMPS              
FCST GIVEN THE HI H85 TEMPS EXPECTED UNDER THE RDG AND WSW FLOW THAT            
WL MINIMIZE LK MODERATION.                                                      
COORDINATED WITH APX/GRB/DLH.                                                   
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION (FOR THE 06Z TAF ISSUANCE)...                                         
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND RUC/NAM SFC-850 MB RH PROGS SUGGEST POTENTIAL             
FOR SOME SCT-BKN CLOUDS AT BOTH SITES. HOWEVER...EXPECT CIGS TO REMAIN          
IN THE VFR RANGE...GENERALLY 040-050. SCT-BKN CU MAY ALSO DEVELOP               
AGAIN LATER TODAY UNTIL THE 850 MB THERMAL TROF DEPARTS AND DRIER               
AIR MOVES IN WITH ACYC NRLY FLOW. BY LATE AFTN...EXPECT CLEARING                
SKIES IN THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. NEVERTHELESS...VFR CONDITIONS               
SHOULD CONTINUE TO PREVAIL.                                                     
&&                                                                              
.MARINE (FOR 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)...                           
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER LAKE SUPERIOR WILL KEEP THE GRADIENTS               
LIGHT AND WINDS OUT OF THE NORTH. AS THE HIGH PUSHES EAST ON                    
SATURDAY WINDS WILL BACK TO THE SOUTH. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH                   
THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT WHILE ANOTHER HIGH BUILDS OVER                    
SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA.                                                           
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
AVIATION...JLB                                                                  
MARINE...DLG                                                                    
SHORT TERM DISCUSSION...DLG                                                     
LONG TERM DISCUSSION...KC                                                       
</pre> mi                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
740 PM EDT THU JUL 19 2007                                                      
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC SHOWING A LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER EASTERN              
CANADA...A STEEP RIDGE OVER THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS AND THE                    
CANADIAN PRAIRIES...AND ANOTHER LONGWAVE TROUGH OFF THE PACIFIC                 
NORTHWEST. A SHORTWAVE ROTATING AROUND THE BASE OF THE EASTERN                  
CANADIAN TROUGH IS MOVING THROUGH SOUTHEASTERN ONTARIO AND                      
NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN. ANOTHER MUCH WEAKER SHORTWAVE SLIDING DOWN             
THE LEE OF THE RIDGE IS JUST NORTH OF THE MINNESOTA ARROWHEAD.                  
SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWING A LOW MOVING THROUGH THE LOWER GREAT LAKES             
DRAGGING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI AND NORTHERN               
OHIO RIVER VALLEYS. A HIGH BUILDING OVER SOUTHEAST MANITOBA AND                 
WESTERN ONTARIO IS EXPANDING INTO THE FORECAST AREA. THE SHORTWAVE              
OVER THE FORECAST AREA IS PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND                       
THUNDERSTORMS OVER EASTERN ONTARIO AND EASTERN U.P. PRODUCING                   
UPSLOPE CONDITIONS OFF OF LAKE SUPERIOR IS PRODUCE AREAS OF DRIZZLE             
AND LIGHT RAIN OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NORTH CENTRAL U.P.                    
.SHORT TERM DISCUSSION (TNGT AND FRI)...                                        
THE SHORTWAVE OVER THE ARROWHEAD WILL CONTINUE TO HEAD SOUTHEAST                
INTO THE FORECAST AREA AS THE STRONGER SHORTWAVE SHIFTS INTO                    
NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN THIS AFTERNOON. DRIER AIR WILL ADVECT INTO              
THE FORECAST AREA BY LATE EVENING. IN THE MEAN TIME...WARM AIR                  
ADVECTION AROUND 800MB WILL PRODUCE AN INVERSION WHICH WILL MAKE A              
CAP LIMITING ANY THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPMENT ESPECIALLY OVER THE                  
WESTERN U.P. HOWEVER...THERE IS STILL ENOUGH MOISTURE PRESENT AND A             
STRONG ENOUGH CAP ENOUGH TO PREVENT PRECIPITATION. UPSLOPE OVER                 
EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR MAKE PRODUCE A SLIGHT OF RAIN OVER THE HIGH               
TERRAIN OF CENTRAL U.P. THIS EVENING. ALSO WILL KEEP A SLIGHT                   
MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER LUCE COUNTY THROUGH EARLY EVENING. GFS            
SHOWING DRY AIR MOVING IN THIS EVENING. WINDS OUT OF THE NORTH TODAY            
PRODUCED SOME RIP CURRENT ON THE LAKE SUPERIOR BEACHES BETWEEN                  
MARQUETTE AND GRAND MARAIS. THESE WILL DIMINISH TO A LIGHT RISK BY              
LATE EVENING AS WINDS AND WAVES DIE DOWN.                                       
THE LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL PUSH INTO WESTERN QUEBEC ON FRIDAY...WHILE             
THE CANADIAN PRAIRIE RIDGE WANDERS INTO MANITOBA. THE SURFACE HIGH              
WILL SETTLE OVER UPPER MICHIGAN ON FRIDAY. GRADIENTS WILL WEAKEN AND            
DRY AIR WILL ACCOMPANY THE HIGH. THUS WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT ON                
MONDAY. GFS FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT FEW CUMULUS CLOUDS WILL             
DEVELOP OVER THE WESTERN U.P. BUT FOR THE MOST PART THE SKIES WILL              
BE MOSTLY SUNNY.                                                                
.LONG TERM DISCUSSION (FRI NGT THRU THU)...                                     
FA FCST TO BE UNDER DOMINATION OF BLDG UPR HGTS IN THE FRI NGT THRU             
SUN PD UNDER SHARPENING UPR RDG ON THE SRN FLANK OF MAIN BAND OF                
WESTERLIES FCST TO SHIFT ACRS CNTRL CAN AND BTWN BUBBLE OF HOT AIR              
IN THE PLAINS AND TROF CUTTING OFF OVER THE E. FRI NGT SHOULD BE ON             
THE COOL SIDE WITH SFC HI PRES CENTER MOVING TO NRN LK MI BY 12Z SAT            
AND LGT WINDS OVER THE FA. GFS/NAM FCST SDNGS HINT SOME MID/HI CLD              
WL MOVE IN ESPECIALLY OVER THE E ON SRN FLANK OF BETTER WAD IN                  
ONTARIO...BUT HARD TO IMAGINE ANY AC/CI WL BE THICK ENUF TO IMPACT              
DIURNAL TEMP DROP WITH RISING HGTS/SHARPENING RDG AXIS UPSTREAM. SO             
TENDED TOWARD THE LO END OF MOS GUIDANCE...ESPECIALLY OVER THE                  
INTERIOR SCNTRL/E CLOSER TO WEAKER PRES GRADIENT THRU 12Z. THEN                 
EXPECT A STEADY WARMING TREND THRU THE WEEKEND AS CENTER OF SFC HI              
PRES PROGGED TO DIP INTO THE LOWER LKS BY SUN AND SETUP A RETURN SW             
FLOW. H85 TEMPS FCST TO INCRS ABOUT 2C EACH DAY...FM ARND 10C ON FRI            
TO 14C ON SAT AND 16C ON SUN. HI PRES CENTER WL BE CLOSE ENUF ON SAT            
TO ALLOW LK BREEZES TO FORM...BUT STRONGER WSW FLOW ON SUN WL TEND              
TO MINIMIZE LK INFLUENCE EXCEPT DOWNSTREAM OF LK MI MAINLY E OF ESC.            
UPR RDG CENTERED OVER THE PLAINS AND ABV NORMAL TEMPS WL DOMINATE               
THE MEDIUM/EXTENDED PD WITH MAIN BELT OF WESTERLIES TO THE N IN CAN.            
HOWEVER...VARIOUS MODEL RUNS HINT AT A BACKDOOR COOL FROPA EARLY NXT            
WEEK WHEN GFS SHOWS H5 TEMPS DIPPING A BIT TO ARND -8C OR -9C IN                
MORE NLY ALF BTWN HI AMPLITUDE RDG/BUBBLE OF HOT AIR OVER THE PLAINS            
AND UPR TROF SOMEWHERE IN THE ERN CONUS. 12Z GFS/CNDN MODELS ALSO               
SHOW DISTURBANCE IMPACTING THE FA ON MON WITH FAIRLY IMPRESSIVE H85             
THETA-E ADVCTN WHILE LOWER H5 TEMPS STILL IN PLACE. FOLLOWED NCEP               
LEAD AND INTRODUCED SCHC POPS FOR MON. FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF THIS            
SHRTWV...UPR RDG FCST TO BLD INTO THE UPR LKS. GIVEN HI HGTS/H5                 
TEMPS IN THE -6 TO -7C RANGE/CAPPING AT H85 WITH TEMPS IN THE 20-24C            
RANGE...SUSPECT ANY SHRA WL BE FEW AND FAR BTWN IN THE ABSENCE OF               
DYNAMICS AFT MON WITH LARGE MAJORITY OF GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS SHOWING            
HIER HGTS TOWARD MIDWEEK. WL GO WITH DRY FCST FOR TUE THRU NEXT THU.            
TENDED TOWARD THE HI END OF GFS MOS GUIDANCE AFT MON FOR MAX TEMPS              
FCST GIVEN THE HI H85 TEMPS EXPECTED UNDER THE RDG AND WSW FLOW THAT            
WL MINIMIZE LK MODERATION.                                                      
COORDINATED WITH APX/GRB/DLH.                                                   
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION (FOR THE 00Z TAF ISSUANCE)...                                         
EVEN THOUGH THE BEST SFC-850 MB DRY ADVECTION WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL               
MIDDAY FRI...EXPECT THAT WITH THE LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING NO MORE               
THAN SCT CLOUDS THIS EVENING ARE EXPECTED. SOME INLAND DIURNAL CU               
MAY DEVELOP FRI. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PERSIST.                     
&&                                                                              
.MARINE (FOR 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)...                           
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER LAKE SUPERIOR WILL KEEP THE GRADIENTS               
LIGHT  AND WINDS OUT OF THE NORTH. AS THE HIGH PUSHES EAST ON                   
SATURDAY WILL WINDS WILL BACK TO THE SOUTH. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH              
THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT BY ANOTHER HIGH BUILDING OVER SOUTH               
CENTRAL CANADA.                                                                 
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
AVIATION...JLB                                                                  
MARINE...DLG                                                                    
SHORT TERM DISCUSSION...DLG                                                     
LONG TERM DISCUSSION...KC                                                       
</pre> mi                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
147 PM EDT THU JUL 19 2007                                                      
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC SHOWING A LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER EASTERN              
CANADA...A STEEP RIDGE OVER THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS AND THE                    
CANADIAN PRAIRIES...AND ANOTHER LONGWAVE TROUGH OFF THE PACIFIC                 
NORTHWEST. A SHORTWAVE ROTATING TO THE EASTERN CANADIAN TROUGH IS               
MOVE THROUGH EASTERN ONTARIO AND THE U.P. ANOTHER WEAKER SHORTWAVE              
SLIDING DOWN THE LEE OF THE RIDGE IS OVER WESTERN ONTARIO. SURFACE              
ANALYSIS SHOWING A LOW MOVING THROUGH THE LOWER GREAT LAKES DRAGGING            
A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE MIDDLE  MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. A HIGH               
BUILDING OVER THE SOUTHERN MANITOBA AND WESTERN ONTARIO IS EXPANDING            
INTO THE FORECAST AREA. THE SHORTWAVE OVER THE FORECAST AREA IS                 
PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER EASTERN ONTARIO              
AND EASTERN U.P.                                                                
THE SHORTWAVE OVER THE FORECAST AREA WILL CONTINUE TO HEAD SOUTHEAST            
INTO NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN THIS AFTERNOON...WHILE THE WEAKER                  
SHORTWAVE OVER WESTERN ONTARIO SHIFT INTO THE ARROWHEAD OF                      
MINNESOTA. DRIER AIR WILL ADVECT INTO THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING            
AND EARLY AFTERNOON. IN THE MEAN TIME...WARM AIR ADVECTION AROUND               
800MB WILL PRODUCE AN INVERSION WHICH WILL CAP THE ANY DEVELOPMENT              
ALSO... ESPECIALLY OVER THE WESTERN U.P. THERE IS STILL ENOUGH                  
MOISTURE PRESENT AND CAP STRONG ENOUGH TO PREVENT PRECIPITATION OF              
THE EAST SO WILL KEEP A SLIGHT MENTION IN THE EAST THROUGH THE                  
AFTERNOON.                                                                      
FOR TEMPERATURES...GOING HIGHS LOOKED REASONABLE WITH TEMPS MOSTLY              
IN THE 60S WITH LOW 70S ACROSS THE SOUTH AWAY FROM THE LAKE.                    
TONIGHT ONWARDS...QUIET WEATHER TAKES OVER AND WITH LIGHT WINDS AND             
CLEAR SKIES...IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS OCCUR AND                    
UNDERCUT GUIDANCE A BIT IN THE WEST AND CENTRAL. FOR                            
TEMPERATURES...WENT CLOSE TO ADJMRF TEMPS AND MIXED 850 MB TEMPS                
DOWN TO THE SFC WHICH SEEMED REASONABLE. OVERALL...DID NOT MAKE TOO             
MANY CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST.                                             
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION (FOR THE 12Z TAF ISSUANCE)...                                         
UPSLOPE CONDITIONS OFF OF LAKE SUPERIOR WILL CONTINUE TO CAUSE LOW              
CEILING THIS AFTERNOON OVER NORTHERN PART OF THE U.P. ISOLATED                  
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE EASTERN U.P. DUE               
THE PRESENCE OF THE WEAK SHORTWAVE AS MENTIONED ABOVE. DRIER AIR                
WILL ADVECT INTO THE AREA THIS EVENING AND SHOULD CLEAR MOST OF THE             
LOW CLOUDS OUT. A CAP AROUND 800MB WILL KEEP THE THUNDERSTORMS FROM             
DEVELOPING. STEEP LAPSE RATES AT THE LOW LEVELS WILL PRODUCE LOW                
CLOUDS IN LATE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING.                                      
&&                                                                              
.MARINE (FOR 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)...                           
PRESSURE FIELD IS INITIALLY DISORGANIZED THIS MORNING BUT TIGHTENS              
QUICKLY AS LOW PRESSURE OVER GREAT LAKES STRENGTHENS AND HIGH                   
PRESSURE OVER CANADA BUILDS SE. COLD AIR ADVECTION AND THE TIGHT                
GRADIENT LEADS TO 20-30KT WINDS OVR MOST OF LK SUPERIOR TODAY.                  
FAR WESTERN LK SUPERIOR NOT SEEING AS MUCH COLD AIR ADVECTION SO                
IT IS MORE STABLE AND SO EXPECT LIGHTER WINDS WEST OF THE KEWEENAW              
PENINSULA TOWARD THE MN SHORELINE. AFTER THIS EVENING...EXPECT                  
WINDS TO REMAIN BELOW 20 KT THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.                            
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
AVIATION/MARINE...JLA                                                           
DISCUSSION...DLG                                                                
</pre> mi                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO                                         
1130 PM CDT THU JUL 19 2007                                                     
.UPDATE...                                                                      
SCATTERED TO BROKEN CONVECTION CONTINUED ALONG A DIFFUSE SURFACE                
BOUNDARY AND 850 MB CONVERGENCE AXIS FROM EAST CENTRAL KANSAS TO                
SOUTH CENTRAL MISSOURI. THIS AXIS ALONG WITH THE SCATTERED                      
CONVECTION WILL SAG SOUTHWARD OVERNIGHT. RUC AND WRF MODELS DEPICT              
THE ACTIVITY DIMINISHING OVERNIGHT BUT FEEL THAT AMPLE CONVERGENCE              
AND ELEVATED INSTABILITY WILL MAINTAIN THE CONVECTION OVERNIGHT.                
FOSTER                                                                          
&&                                                                              
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
CHALLENGES CONTINUE TO BE ASSOCIATED WITH A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT              
MOVING SOUTH FROM NORTHERN MISSOURI. COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPS ARE               
EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND.                                                      
CURRENTLY...SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT NOW FROM CENTRAL ILLINOIS TO                 
KANSAS CITY...EXTENDING SOUTHWESTWARD INTO SOUTHWEST KANSAS.                    
ESTIMATED TIME OF ARRIVAL INTO CENTRAL MISSOURI LOOKS TO BE AROUND              
4-5 PM...INTO SOUTHERN MISSOURI 10-11 PM THIS EVENING. CURRENT AREA             
RADAR STILL SHOWS CWA ECHO FREE...BUT STARTING TO SEE A SOUTHWARD               
PROGRESSION ON AREA OF SHOWERS UP IN NORTHERN MISSOURI. 18Z SGF                 
SOUNDING SHOWING TWO STRONG CAPS OVER THE AREA...ONE NEAR                       
863MBS...THE OTHER NEAR 655MBS. SO FOR AT LEAST THE EARLY PART OF               
THE AFTERNOON...WE SHOULD REMAIN DRY.                                           
TONIGHT...GFS BEGINS TO COOL DOWN MID LEVELS AROUND 00Z WITH 700MB              
TEMPS DROPPING FROM +10C TO +8C. THIS SHOULD HELP BREAK THE UPPER               
CAP AND GET CONVECTION GOING DOWN IN THIS AREA. FRONT SHOULD BE                 
MOVING INTO CENTRAL MISSOURI BY THAT TIME AS WELL. WRF SOUNDING                 
REALLY BECOMES UNSTABLE AFTER 03Z THIS EVENING. WOULD EXPECT THIS               
WOULD BE THE TIMEFRAME WHEN CONVECTION REALLY STARTS GOING. BY                  
06Z...CONVECTIVE INHIBITION TOTALLY GONE WITH CAPES AROUND 1200-1500            
J/KG. WILL NEED TO WATCH NORTHEASTERN KANSAS EARLY IN THE EVENING TO            
SEE WHAT CONVECTION GETS GOING IN THAT AREA. MODELS SHOWING                     
STRONGEST CONVERGENCE THIS AREA. MAY SEE MCS FORM THERE AND THEN                
MOVE SOUTHEAST INTO WESTERN MISSOURI.                                           
FRIDAY TO SATURDAY...FRONT DOWN NEAR THE MISSOURI/ARKANSAS FRIDAY               
MORNING. 925MB STREAMLINES SHOWING DIFFLUENT FLOW OVER MOST OF THE              
CWA. KEPT CHANCE POPS GOING FOR THE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON                 
TIMEFRAME ACROSS SOUTHERN MISSOURI IN THE EVENT THE FRONT HANGS UP.             
BY FRIDAY EVENING...GFS SHOWING SURFACE WAVE ACROSS SOUTHWEST                   
MISSOURI WITH SIGNIFICANT PRECIP OVER THIS AREA. WRF ON THE OTHER               
HAND...CONTINUES TO PUSH FRONT PROGRESSIVELY SOUTH. TENDED MORE                 
TOWARDS THE WRF SOLUTION AS GFS HAS BEEN REALLY AFFECTED BY                     
CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK ISSUES.                                                     
EXTENDED...SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. NO MAJOR CHANGES IN THE EXTENDED            
PERIOD WITH THE UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE ROCKIES EXPECTING TO BUILD               
ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS...AND ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST/NORTHERN               
PLAINS BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL KEEP THE HOTTEST AIRMASS NORTH             
OF OUR REGION...BUT STILL REMAINING SEASONABLE WITH HIGHS RISING                
BACK TO NEAR 90 DEGREES BY SUNDAY/MONDAY...AND CONTINUING THROUGH               
THURSDAY. HEAT INDICES WILL ALSO SLOWLY RISE BY MIDWEEK AS THE AIR              
MASS SLOWLY MODIFIES ACROSS THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLY REGION. ONLY              
FORECAST PROBLEM IS A WEAKNESS IN THE HEIGHT FIELDS ACROSS THE                  
SOUTHEAST U.S. AND SPREADING WESTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN                       
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THIS WEAKNESS WILL ALLOW FOR MORE UNSETTLED                 
CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP AND PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORMS BY NEXT             
THURSDAY. THERE NEEDS TO BE MORE CONSISTENCY IN THE MODEL RUNS FOR              
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS BEFORE ANY TYPE OF WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION               
LOOKS REASONABLE LATE NEXT WEEK. JLT                                            
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT THE JOPLIN AND                  
SPRINGFIELD TERMINAL VICINITIES OVERNIGHT AS A WEAK FRONT SAGS                  
SOUTHWARD INTO THE OZARKS. LOCALIZED MVFR CONDITIONS WILL BE                    
POSSIBLE IN THE SHOWERS. SOME PATCHY LIGHT FOG WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE            
AROUND SUNRISE. THE POSSIBILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL PERSIST INTO              
FRIDAY MORNING AT THE SPRINGFIELD TERMINAL AND MUCH OF THE DAY                  
FRIDAY AT JOPLIN. HOWEVER VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE THE RULE.                      
FOSTER                                                                          
&&                                                                              
.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
MO...NONE.                                                                      
KS...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
WFO SGF                                                                         
</pre> mo                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE                                            
1208 PM CDT FRI JUL 20 2007                                                     
.AVIATION...PERIODS OF MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT THE KGRI                     
TERMINAL THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. CEILINGS ARE FINALLY                        
BEGINNING TO LIFT THUS ALLOWING FOR PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS.                  
PERIODIC MVFR CONDITIONS STILL REMAIN POSSIBLE HOWEVER THROUGH 21Z.             
VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD THEN CONTINUE UNINTERRUPTED THROUGH EARLY                 
MORNING SATURDAY. STRATUS WILL ACCOMPANY PATCHY FOG SATURDAY                    
MORNING...WITH MVFR CONDITIONS ONCE AGAIN POSSIBLE BETWEEN 09Z AND              
13Z. SURFACE WINDS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST                   
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.                                                    
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1142 AM CDT FRI JUL 20 2007/                        
UPDATE...UPDATED FORECAST TO REMOVE MORNING WORDING. NO OTHER CHANGES           
MADE.                                                                           
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 944 AM CDT FRI JUL 20 2007/                          
UPDATE...MORNING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS OUR KANSAS                    
COUNTIES HAVE DIMINISHED FOR THE MOST PART. MORNING ANALYSIS                    
CONTINUES TO INDICATE AN ELEVATED BOUNDARY NEAR THE AREA...WITH                 
WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT NEAR THE 310K SURFACE ALSO PRESENT. LATEST                 
RUC GUIDANCE INDICATES ISENTROPIC LIFT ALONG THIS SAME SURFACE MAY              
INCREASE LATER THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS OUR KANSAS COUNTIES AND                    
PERHAPS PORTIONS OF OUR EXTREME SOUTHERN NEBRASKA COUNTIES. AS A                
RESULT...HAVE GONE AHEAD AND INSERTED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR OUR                
KANSAS COUNTIES AND FROM HARLAN COUNTY EASTWARD THROUGH THIS                    
AFTERNOON. ALSO TWEAKED SKY COVER A BIT. REST OF THE FORECAST                   
REMAIN ON TRACK WITH NO OTHER CHANGES MADE.                                     
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 357 AM CDT FRI JUL 20 2007/                          
DISCUSSION...LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY REVEALS A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED              
PATTERN WITH A LARGE RIDGE ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS AND A TROUGH                
OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND THE WEST COAST.  ALTHOUGH MOST OF THE                  
PLAINS IS SEEING MID AND UPPER LEVEL HEIGHT RISES...SEVERAL SMALL               
BUT POTENT SHORT WAVES ARE SEEN UNDER THIS RIDGE.  ONE OF THESE                 
WAVES HAS BEEN INTERACTING WITH THE 850MB FRONT ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL            
KANSAS WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION SEEN ACROSS THIS                   
AREA. WITH PW VALUES AROUND 150 PERCENT OF NORMAL...THIS                        
CONVECTION HAS BEEN PRODUCING SOME DECENT RAINFALL AMOUNTS WITH                 
RATES OVER ONE INCH PER HOUR. RECENT OBJECTIVE SURFACE ANALYSIS                 
SHOWS A NEARLY STALLED FRONT SITTING ACROSS SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL                
KANSAS WITH SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR SITTING ACROSS NEBRASKA.                         
THE WEATHER PATTERN WILL CHANGE LITTLE TODAY AS THE LARGE UPPER                 
RIDGE WILL BECOME ANCHORED ACROSS THE PLAINS AND ROCKIES WHILE                  
THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT REMAINS STALLED ACROSS SOUTHERN KANSAS.  THE           
WAVE RESPONSIBLE FOR KICKING OFF THE ELEVATED CONVECTION ACROSS                 
NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS IS SHOWN TO GRADUALLY DRIFT TO THE SOUTH                   
THROUGH THE DAY.  HOWEVER...STILL EXPECT AT LEAST SOME ISOLATED                 
CONVECTION TO IMPACT MAINLY NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS THROUGH EARLY                  
AFTERNOON AS THE MODELS SHOW DECENT LOW LEVEL CAPE DEVELOPING                   
ACROSS THIS AREA. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE TRICKY TODAY GIVEN                  
PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER AROUND...BUT WILL AIM FOR HIGHS IN THE LOWER              
80S NEAR ORD...TO THE MID TO UPPER 80S ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL                     
KANSAS.                                                                         
HOT AND DRY PATTERN THEN LOOKS TO TAKE HOLD OF THE REGION FOR THE               
WEEKEND AS THE UPPER RIDGE SITS OVER THE PLAINS AND ROCKIES.                    
PRESSURE FALLS ACROSS THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS WILL HELP TO                     
GRADUALLY DEEPEN THE LEE TROUGH INTO EASTERN COLORADO AND IN THE                
PROCESS LIFTING THE STALLED OUT FRONT NORTHEAST OF THE AREA.  THIS              
WILL SET THE STAGE FOR HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO MID 90S THIS                   
WEEKEND.                                                                        
&&                                                                              
.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
NE...NONE.                                                                      
KS...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SB                                                                              
</pre> ne                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE                                            
1142 AM CDT FRI JUL 20 2007                                                     
.UPDATE...UPDATED FORECAST TO REMOVE MORNING WORDING. NO OTHER CHANGES          
MADE.                                                                           
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 944 AM CDT FRI JUL 20 2007/                         
UPDATE...MORNING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS OUR KANSAS                    
COUNTIES HAVE DIMINISHED FOR THE MOST PART. MORNING ANALYSIS                    
CONTINUES TO INDICATE AN ELEVATED BOUNDARY NEAR THE AREA...WITH                 
WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT NEAR THE 310K SURFACE ALSO PRESENT. LATEST                 
RUC GUIDANCE INDICATES ISENTROPIC LIFT ALONG THIS SAME SURFACE MAY              
INCREASE LATER THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS OUR KANSAS COUNTIES AND                    
PERHAPS PORTIONS OF OUR EXTREME SOUTHERN NEBRASKA COUNTIES. AS A                
RESULT...HAVE GONE AHEAD AND INSERTED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR OUR                
KANSAS COUNTIES AND FROM HARLAN COUNTY EASTWARD THROUGH THIS                    
AFTERNOON. ALSO TWEAKED SKY COVER A BIT. REST OF THE FORECAST                   
REMAIN ON TRACK WITH NO OTHER CHANGES MADE.                                     
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 622 AM CDT FRI JUL 20 2007/                          
AVIATION...IMMEDIATE CONCERN REVOLVES AROUND STRATUS DECK AND                   
WHETHER IT WILL GET INTO GRI OR NOT. BELIEVE IT WILL GIVING                     
SATELLITE AND VISUAL OBS. FOG WILL NOT BE A PROBLEM TODAY AS DRIER              
AIR AT SURFACE ADVECTED IN OVERNIGHT KEEPING VSBYS UP. SHOULD SEE               
SOME CLEARING THIS AFTERNOON...AT LEAST FROM BKN TO SCT...BUT                   
PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SO WON`T GO CLEAR. OTHER CONCERN IS                
POSSIBLE FOG BEFORE SUNRISE ON SATURDAY BUT WON`T ADD MENTION INTO              
TAF AT THIS TIME.                                                               
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 357 AM CDT FRI JUL 20 2007/                          
DISCUSSION...LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY REVEALS A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED              
PATTERN WITH A LARGE RIDGE ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS AND A TROUGH                
OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND THE WEST COAST.  ALTHOUGH MOST OF THE                  
PLAINS IS SEEING MID AND UPPER LEVEL HEIGHT RISES...SEVERAL SMALL               
BUT POTENT SHORT WAVES ARE SEEN UNDER THIS RIDGE.  ONE OF THESE                 
WAVES HAS BEEN INTERACTING WITH THE 850MB FRONT ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL            
KANSAS WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION SEEN ACROSS THIS                   
AREA. WITH PW VALUES AROUND 150 PERCENT OF NORMAL...THIS                        
CONVECTION HAS BEEN PRODUCING SOME DECENT RAINFALL AMOUNTS WITH                 
RATES OVER ONE INCH PER HOUR. RECENT OBJECTIVE SURFACE ANALYSIS                 
SHOWS A NEARLY STALLED FRONT SITTING ACROSS SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL                
KANSAS WITH SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR SITTING ACROSS NEBRASKA.                         
THE WEATHER PATTERN WILL CHANGE LITTLE TODAY AS THE LARGE UPPER                 
RIDGE WILL BECOME ANCHORED ACROSS THE PLAINS AND ROCKIES WHILE                  
THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT REMAINS STALLED ACROSS SOUTHERN KANSAS.  THE           
WAVE RESPONSIBLE FOR KICKING OFF THE ELEVATED CONVECTION ACROSS                 
NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS IS SHOWN TO GRADUALLY DRIFT TO THE SOUTH                   
THROUGH THE DAY.  HOWEVER...STILL EXPECT AT LEAST SOME ISOLATED                 
CONVECTION TO IMPACT MAINLY NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS THROUGH EARLY                  
AFTERNOON AS THE MODELS SHOW DECENT LOW LEVEL CAPE DEVELOPING                   
ACROSS THIS AREA. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE TRICKY TODAY GIVEN                  
PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER AROUND...BUT WILL AIM FOR HIGHS IN THE LOWER              
80S NEAR ORD...TO THE MID TO UPPER 80S ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL                     
KANSAS.                                                                         
HOT AND DRY PATTERN THEN LOOKS TO TAKE HOLD OF THE REGION FOR THE               
WEEKEND AS THE UPPER RIDGE SITS OVER THE PLAINS AND ROCKIES.                    
PRESSURE FALLS ACROSS THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS WILL HELP TO                     
GRADUALLY DEEPEN THE LEE TROUGH INTO EASTERN COLORADO AND IN THE                
PROCESS LIFTING THE STALLED OUT FRONT NORTHEAST OF THE AREA.  THIS              
WILL SET THE STAGE FOR HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO MID 90S THIS                   
WEEKEND.                                                                        
&&                                                                              
.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
NE...NONE.                                                                      
KS...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SB                                                                              
</pre> ne                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE                                            
944 AM CDT FRI JUL 20 2007                                                      
.UPDATE...MORNING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS OUR KANSAS                   
COUNTIES HAVE DIMINISHED FOR THE MOST PART. MORNING ANALYSIS                    
CONTINUES TO INDICATE AN ELEVATED BOUNDARY NEAR THE AREA...WITH                 
WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT NEAR THE 310K SURFACE ALSO PRESENT. LATEST                 
RUC GUIDANCE INDICATES ISENTROPIC LIFT ALONG THIS SAME SURFACE MAY              
INCREASE LATER THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS OUR KANSAS COUNTIES AND                    
PERHAPS PORTIONS OF OUR EXTREME SOUTHERN NEBRASKA COUNTIES. AS A                
RESULT...HAVE GONE AHEAD AND INSERTED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR OUR                
KANSAS COUNTIES AND FROM HARLAN COUNTY EASTWARD THROUGH THIS                    
AFTERNOON. ALSO TWEAKED SKY COVER A BIT. REST OF THE FORECAST                   
REMAIN ON TRACK WITH NO OTHER CHANGES MADE.                                     
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 622 AM CDT FRI JUL 20 2007/                         
AVIATION...IMMEDIATE CONCERN REVOLVES AROUND STRATUS DECK AND                   
WHETHER IT WILL GET INTO GRI OR NOT. BELIEVE IT WILL GIVING                     
SATELLITE AND VISUAL OBS. FOG WILL NOT BE A PROBLEM TODAY AS DRIER              
AIR AT SURFACE ADVECTED IN OVERNIGHT KEEPING VSBYS UP. SHOULD SEE               
SOME CLEARING THIS AFTERNOON...AT LEAST FROM BKN TO SCT...BUT                   
PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SO WON`T GO CLEAR. OTHER CONCERN IS                
POSSIBLE FOG BEFORE SUNRISE ON SATURDAY BUT WON`T ADD MENTION INTO              
TAF AT THIS TIME.                                                               
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 357 AM CDT FRI JUL 20 2007/                          
DISCUSSION...LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY REVEALS A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED              
PATTERN WITH A LARGE RIDGE ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS AND A TROUGH                
OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND THE WEST COAST.  ALTHOUGH MOST OF THE                  
PLAINS IS SEEING MID AND UPPER LEVEL HEIGHT RISES...SEVERAL SMALL               
BUT POTENT SHORT WAVES ARE SEEN UNDER THIS RIDGE.  ONE OF THESE                 
WAVES HAS BEEN INTERACTING WITH THE 850MB FRONT ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL            
KANSAS WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION SEEN ACROSS THIS                   
AREA. WITH PW VALUES AROUND 150 PERCENT OF NORMAL...THIS                        
CONVECTION HAS BEEN PRODUCING SOME DECENT RAINFALL AMOUNTS WITH                 
RATES OVER ONE INCH PER HOUR. RECENT OBJECTIVE SURFACE ANALYSIS                 
SHOWS A NEARLY STALLED FRONT SITTING ACROSS SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL                
KANSAS WITH SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR SITTING ACROSS NEBRASKA.                         
THE WEATHER PATTERN WILL CHANGE LITTLE TODAY AS THE LARGE UPPER                 
RIDGE WILL BECOME ANCHORED ACROSS THE PLAINS AND ROCKIES WHILE                  
THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT REMAINS STALLED ACROSS SOUTHERN KANSAS.  THE           
WAVE RESPONSIBLE FOR KICKING OFF THE ELEVATED CONVECTION ACROSS                 
NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS IS SHOWN TO GRADUALLY DRIFT TO THE SOUTH                   
THROUGH THE DAY.  HOWEVER...STILL EXPECT AT LEAST SOME ISOLATED                 
CONVECTION TO IMPACT MAINLY NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS THROUGH EARLY                  
AFTERNOON AS THE MODELS SHOW DECENT LOW LEVEL CAPE DEVELOPING                   
ACROSS THIS AREA. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE TRICKY TODAY GIVEN                  
PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER AROUND...BUT WILL AIM FOR HIGHS IN THE LOWER              
80S NEAR ORD...TO THE MID TO UPPER 80S ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL                     
KANSAS.                                                                         
HOT AND DRY PATTERN THEN LOOKS TO TAKE HOLD OF THE REGION FOR THE               
WEEKEND AS THE UPPER RIDGE SITS OVER THE PLAINS AND ROCKIES.                    
PRESSURE FALLS ACROSS THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS WILL HELP TO                     
GRADUALLY DEEPEN THE LEE TROUGH INTO EASTERN COLORADO AND IN THE                
PROCESS LIFTING THE STALLED OUT FRONT NORTHEAST OF THE AREA.  THIS              
WILL SET THE STAGE FOR HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO MID 90S THIS                   
WEEKEND.                                                                        
AVIATION...SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS IN NORTH CENTRAL                     
KANSAS ARE TRYING TO DEVELOP NORTH AND ACROSS THE STATE LINE. DO                
NOT THINK THESE WILL MAKE IT ALL THE WAY UP TO THE GRI AREA. LOOKS              
LIKE UPSLOPE CONDITIONS STILL IN PLACE AND SOME FOG AND LOWER                   
CEILINGS MAY DEVELOP A FEW HOURS BEFORE SUNRISE. STILL BELIEVE                  
CLOUDS MAY SCATTER OUT THIS AFTERNOON.                                          
&&                                                                              
.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
NE...NONE.                                                                      
KS...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SB                                                                              
</pre> ne                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM                                         
933 PM MDT FRI JUL 20 2007                                                      
.UPDATE...                                                                      
LATEST RADAR TRENDS SHOW MOST PERSISTENT AREA OF PRECIP IS ALONG                
THE E SLOPES OF THE SANGRES IN WESTERN MORA AND COLFAX COUNTIES.                
RAISED POPS THERE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE EVE. THE OTHER AREA OF               
PRECIP OVER THE SW MTNS AND UPPER GILA REGION SHOULD BEGIN TO                   
DISSIPATE PER LATEST RUC GUIDANCE. LOWERED POPS ELSEWHERE TO                    
REFLECT 00Z MODEL TRENDS BUT STILL HELD ON TO ISOLD SINCE CANNOT                
RULE OUT A STORM DEVELOPING ON REMNANT OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES. LATEST               
IR IMAGERY ALSO SHOWS CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES OVER MUCH OF                 
THE E PLAINS AND ANTICIPATE THIS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE EARLY                  
MORNING. TEMPS AND WINDS LOOK GREAT SO WILL LEAVE UNTOUCHED.                    
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION...255 PM MDT FRI JUL 20 2007...                                
FORECAST CHALLENGES IN THE SHORT TERM INVOLVE PCPN CHANCES AS WELL              
AS DIURNAL TEMPS. COMPLICATED...YET RATHER INTERESTING WATER VAPOR              
LOOP AND RUC ANALYSIS THIS AFTERNOON. STRONG MID/UPPER LEVEL HIGH               
REMAINS CENTERED OVER NRN COLORADO. MEANWHILE...250MB ANALYSIS HAS              
AN UPPER LOW TRACKING SLOWLY W/NW OVER SRN NM WITH AN UPR HIGH IN               
THE SRN TIP OF TEXAS. SUBTROPICAL JET CONTINUES TO ADVECT MOISTURE              
NORTHWARD FROM THE ERN PAC INTO NORTH CENTRAL MEXICO/SRN TX. THIS               
INCREASE IN MOISTURE IS ALSO EVIDENT ON THE REGIONAL 12Z SOUNDINGS              
WITH PRECIPITABLE WATERS IN TEXAS RANGING FROM 1.5 TO 2.0 INCHES...             
WHILE ABQ REMAINS NEAR THREE-QUARTERS OF AN INCH. WITH EXAMINATION              
OF THE WATER VAPOR LOOP...IT APPEARS CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THE UPR               
LOW IS TAPPING INTO SOME OF THIS SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE AND WRAPPING              
IT INTO NM ON THE NE QUADRANT. DIFFICULT TO ASCERTAIN THE LEVEL AT              
WHICH THIS MOISTURE IS RESIDING BASED ON WATER VAPOR...BUT FEEL IT              
IS HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE BASED ON RUC ANALYSIS OF THE 250MB LOW AND               
AND IT SHOULD NOT HAVE A HUGE IMPACT ON NM JUST YET. MEANWHILE...A              
SLOW CONVECTIVE START THIS AFTERNOON...HOWEVER EXPECT SCT SHOWERS/              
STORMS TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING ACROSS               
THE NRN AND WEST CENTRAL MTS. DIRECTIONAL SHEAR WILL ALSO SUPPORT               
ACTIVITY ACROSS THE NE PLAINS. SLOW MOVING STORMS SHOULD ENCOURAGE              
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND MINOR FLOODING ISSUES. STRONGER STORMS               
SHOULD DIMINISH BY MIDNIGHT...BUT ISOLATED PCPN STILL POSSIBLE TIL              
THE MID-MORNING HOURS. EXPECT TEMPS TONIGHT TO BE SIMILAR TO EARLY              
THIS MORNING. LOW CLOUDS WILL CLAIM MORE REAL ESTATE ACROSS THE SE              
PLAINS AFTER MIDNIGHT...GENERALLY OF THE MVFR NATURE...DISSIPATING              
BY LATE MORNING SAT.                                                            
STILL QUESTIONABLE AS TO THE SPEED OF THE WEAK UPPER LOW...HOWEVER              
BOTH MODELS ARE FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH ITS LOCATION IN THE SW OR W              
CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE STATE BY 00Z SUN. MAIN FOCUS FOR STORMS ON              
SAT AFTERNOON WILL BE ACROSS THE CENTRAL/WRN HIGH TERRAIN...WITH A              
BREAK IN THE NE PLAINS. BY SUN AFTERNOON...UPPER HIGH TO THE NORTH              
WILL STRENGTHEN AND SHOVE THE WEAK UPR LOW INTO CENTRAL AZ. IN THE              
MEANTIME...ELY FLOW WILL INCREASE ACROSS TX/NM/MEXICO...WHICH WILL              
SHOVE THE SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE WESTWARD...PARTICULARLY OVER SRN NM/             
AZ AND NRN MEXICO. ELY WAVES EMBEDDED WITHIN THE SRN PERIPHERY OF               
THE UPPER HIGH WILL ENHANCE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. IT APPEARS THE              
SW CORNER OF THE CWA MAY EXPERIENCE THE GREATEST INCREASE IN PCPN.              
THE NAM IS NOTABLY FASTER AND FURTHER WEST WITH THE UPPER HIGH AND              
WILL DISCARD SOLUTION ATTM. CONFIDENCE OF EXTENDED REMAINS LOW AS               
THE GFS/ECMWF/CANADIAN ADVERTISE A RETROGRADING UPPER LOW TRACKING              
FROM THE OHIO VALLEY TO THE CENTRAL GREAT PLAINS. ALTHOUGH IT MAY               
SEEM IMPLAUSIBLE...SIMILAR PATTERNS HAVE DEVELOPED IN THE PAST. IF              
THIS SCENARIO PANS OUT...UPPER HIGH WILL BE SHOVED INTO THE DESERT              
SW BY THE END OF THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK. DPORTER                                
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
FARMINGTON......................  64  90  61  95 /  10  30  30  20              
GALLUP..........................  57  85  56  88 /  20  30  30  20              
GRANTS..........................  56  86  55  87 /  10  20  40  20              
GLENWOOD........................  59  93  62  91 /  20  30  50  30              
CHAMA...........................  48  80  48  82 /  10  30  30  30              
LOS ALAMOS......................  56  82  55  84 /  10  20  30  20              
RED RIVER.......................  45  73  44  75 /  20  30  30  20              
TAOS............................  53  83  52  88 /  20  20  20  20              
SANTA FE........................  54  84  55  87 /  20  30  20  20              
SANTA FE AIRPORT................  59  87  58  89 /  10  20  20  20              
ESPANOLA........................  57  90  57  92 /  10  20  20  20              
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS.............  67  90  67  91 /  10  20  20  20              
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY..............  63  91  63  92 /  10  20  20  20              
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS...........  65  88  65  90 /  10  30  30  20              
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA...........  66  90  66  91 /  10  20  30  20              
SOCORRO.........................  63  90  63  90 /  10  20  20  20              
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST.........  52  80  53  83 /  10  30  30  20              
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA...............  56  87  57  88 /  10  20  20  20              
CARRIZOZO.......................  59  88  59  87 /  10  20  20  20              
RUIDOSO.........................  55  79  53  79 /  10  30  20  20              
RATON...........................  56  87  55  91 /  30  10   5  10              
LAS VEGAS.......................  54  83  53  86 /  10  20  20  20              
ROY.............................  61  88  60  90 /  10  10  10   5              
CLAYTON.........................  62  89  62  92 /  10  10   5   5              
SANTA ROSA......................  64  91  64  93 /  10  10  10  10              
TUCUMCARI.......................  65  92  68  95 /  10  10   5  10              
FORT SUMNER.....................  65  91  67  93 /  10  10  10  10              
CLOVIS..........................  63  89  64  91 /  10  20  10  10              
PORTALES........................  61  90  63  92 /  10  20  10  10              
ROSWELL.........................  66  90  67  92 /  10  20  20  10              
&&                                                                              
.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
NONE.                                                                           
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
42                                                                              
</pre> nm                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM                                         
255 PM MDT FRI JUL 20 2007                                                      
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
FORECAST CHALLENGES IN THE SHORT TERM INVOLVE PCPN CHANCES AS WELL              
AS DIURNAL TEMPS. COMPLICATED...YET RATHER INTERESTING WATER VAPOR              
LOOP AND RUC ANALYSIS THIS AFTERNOON. STRONG MID/UPPER LEVEL HIGH               
REMAINS CENTERED OVER NRN COLORADO. MEANWHILE...250MB ANALYSIS HAS              
AN UPPER LOW TRACKING SLOWLY W/NW OVER SRN NM WITH AN UPR HIGH IN               
THE SRN TIP OF TEXAS. SUBTROPICAL JET CONTINUES TO ADVECT MOISTURE              
NORTHWARD FROM THE ERN PAC INTO NORTH CENTRAL MEXICO/SRN TX. THIS               
INCREASE IN MOISTURE IS ALSO EVIDENT ON THE REGIONAL 12Z SOUNDINGS              
WITH PRECIPITABLE WATERS IN TEXAS RANGING FROM 1.5 TO 2.0 INCHES...             
WHILE ABQ REMAINS NEAR THREE-QUARTERS OF AN INCH. WITH EXAMINATION              
OF THE WATER VAPOR LOOP...IT APPEARS CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THE UPR               
LOW IS TAPPING INTO SOME OF THIS SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE AND WRAPPING              
IT INTO NM ON THE NE QUADRANT. DIFFICULT TO ASCERTAIN THE LEVEL AT              
WHICH THIS MOISTURE IS RESIDING BASED ON WATER VAPOR...BUT FEEL IT              
IS HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE BASED ON RUC ANALYSIS OF THE 250MB LOW AND               
AND IT SHOULD NOT HAVE A HUGE IMPACT ON NM JUST YET. MEANWHILE...A              
SLOW CONVECTIVE START THIS AFTERNOON...HOWEVER EXPECT SCT SHOWERS/              
STORMS TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING ACROSS               
THE NRN AND WEST CENTRAL MTS. DIRECTIONAL SHEAR WILL ALSO SUPPORT               
ACTIVITY ACROSS THE NE PLAINS. SLOW MOVING STORMS SHOULD ENCOURAGE              
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND MINOR FLOODING ISSUES. STRONGER STORMS               
SHOULD DIMINISH BY MIDNIGHT...BUT ISOLATED PCPN STILL POSSIBLE TIL              
THE MID-MORNING HOURS. EXPECT TEMPS TONIGHT TO BE SIMILAR TO EARLY              
THIS MORNING. LOW CLOUDS WILL CLAIM MORE REAL ESTATE ACROSS THE SE              
PLAINS AFTER MIDNIGHT...GENERALLY OF THE MVFR NATURE...DISSIPATING              
BY LATE MORNING SAT.                                                            
STILL QUESTIONABLE AS TO THE SPEED OF THE WEAK UPPER LOW...HOWEVER              
BOTH MODELS ARE FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH ITS LOCATION IN THE SW OR W              
CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE STATE BY 00Z SUN. MAIN FOCUS FOR STORMS ON              
SAT AFTERNOON WILL BE ACROSS THE CENTRAL/WRN HIGH TERRAIN...WITH A              
BREAK IN THE NE PLAINS. BY SUN AFTERNOON...UPPER HIGH TO THE NORTH              
WILL STRENGTHEN AND SHOVE THE WEAK UPR LOW INTO CENTRAL AZ. IN THE              
MEANTIME...ELY FLOW WILL INCREASE ACROSS TX/NM/MEXICO...WHICH WILL              
SHOVE THE SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE WESTWARD...PARTICULARLY OVER SRN NM/             
AZ AND NRN MEXICO. ELY WAVES EMBEDDED WITHIN THE SRN PERIPHERY OF               
THE UPPER HIGH WILL ENHANCE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. IT APPEARS THE              
SW CORNER OF THE CWA MAY EXPERIENCE THE GREATEST INCREASE IN PCPN.              
THE NAM IS NOTABLY FASTER AND FURTHER WEST WITH THE UPPER HIGH AND              
WILL DISCARD SOLUTION ATTM. CONFIDENCE OF EXTENDED REMAINS LOW AS               
THE GFS/ECMWF/CANADIAN ADVERTISE A RETROGRADING UPPER LOW TRACKING              
FROM THE OHIO VALLEY TO THE CENTRAL GREAT PLAINS. ALTHOUGH IT MAY               
SEEM IMPLAUSIBLE...SIMILAR PATTERNS HAVE DEVELOPED IN THE PAST. IF              
THIS SCENARIO PANS OUT...UPPER HIGH WILL BE SHOVED INTO THE DESERT              
SW BY THE END OF THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK. DPORTER                                
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
FARMINGTON......................  64  90  61  95 /  30  30  30  20              
GALLUP..........................  57  85  56  88 /  20  30  30  20              
GRANTS..........................  56  86  55  87 /  20  20  40  20              
GLENWOOD........................  59  93  62  91 /  30  30  50  30              
CHAMA...........................  48  80  48  82 /  50  30  30  30              
LOS ALAMOS......................  56  82  55  84 /  40  20  30  20              
RED RIVER.......................  45  73  44  75 /  40  30  30  20              
TAOS............................  53  83  52  88 /  40  20  20  20              
SANTA FE........................  54  84  55  87 /  30  30  20  20              
SANTA FE AIRPORT................  59  87  58  89 /  30  20  20  20              
ESPANOLA........................  57  90  57  92 /  40  20  20  20              
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS.............  67  90  67  91 /  20  20  20  20              
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY..............  63  91  63  92 /  20  20  20  20              
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS...........  65  88  65  90 /  20  30  30  20              
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA...........  66  90  66  91 /  20  20  30  20              
SOCORRO.........................  63  90  63  90 /  20  20  20  20              
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST.........  52  80  53  83 /  20  30  30  20              
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA...............  56  87  57  88 /  20  20  20  20              
CARRIZOZO.......................  59  88  59  87 /  20  20  20  20              
RUIDOSO.........................  55  79  53  79 /  30  30  20  20              
RATON...........................  56  87  55  91 /  30  10   5  10              
LAS VEGAS.......................  54  83  53  86 /  20  20  20  20              
ROY.............................  61  88  60  90 /  20  10  10   5              
CLAYTON.........................  62  89  62  92 /  20  10   5   5              
SANTA ROSA......................  64  91  64  93 /  20  10  10  10              
TUCUMCARI.......................  65  92  68  95 /  10  10   5  10              
FORT SUMNER.....................  65  91  67  93 /  10  10  10  10              
CLOVIS..........................  63  89  64  91 /  10  20  10  10              
PORTALES........................  61  90  63  92 /  10  20  10  10              
ROSWELL.........................  66  90  67  92 /  10  20  20  10              
&&                                                                              
.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
NONE.                                                                           
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
46                                                                              
</pre> nm                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY                                             
817 PM EDT THU JUL 19 2007                                                      
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERED OVER NORTHERN NEW YORK WILL                    
CONTINUE TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE REGION TONIGHT. MEANWHILE AN                     
UNSEASONABLY STRONG UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL DROP SOUTHEAST                 
ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES TONIGHT AND KEEP THE CHANCE OF A FEW             
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. AN AREA OF                
HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES OVER THE                   
WEEKEND AND BRING A RETURN TO AMPLE SUNSHINE AND VERY PLEASANT MID              
SUMMER WEATHER. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A LITTLE COOL ON FRIDAY THEN               
TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE AND RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL BY THE END OF              
THE WEEKEND.                                                                    
&&                                                                              
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...                                       
AREA OF STEADY RAIN IS JUST ABOUT OUT OF THE CWA AT 18Z...AND WILL              
CLEAR LEWIS COUNTY OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR SO. BEHIND THE SHIELD OF               
STEADY RAIN MODEST INSTABILITY HAS DEVELOPED WITHIN SOME BINOVC                 
WHICH ALLOWED FOR SOME LIMITED INSOLATION. SPC OBJECTIVE RUC                    
ANALYSIS AT 18Z SHOWING POCKETS OF AROUND 1000J/KG OF CAPE ACROSS               
PORTIONS OF WESTERN NY...WITH UP TO 1500J/KG ACROSS SOUTHERN ONTARIO            
WHERE MORE SUNSHINE HAS OCCURRED. A NARROW BAND OF SHOWERS HAS                  
DEVELOPED FROM NEAR FORT ERIE ACROSS METRO BUF EAST TO THE FINGER               
LAKES ALONG AN AXIS OF LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE WHICH IS A COMBINATION             
OF THE PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH AND SOME LAKE ENHANCED CONVERGENCE. OF                
MORE IMPORTANCE IS A BROKEN LINE OF MORE INTENSE CONVECTION OVER                
SOUTHERN ONTARIO FROM THE KAWARTHAS TO JUST WEST OF TORONTO AND                 
HAMILTON. THESE STORMS ARE FORMING ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF STRONG             
MID LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS AHEAD OF A SHARP MID LEVEL CLOSED CIRCULATION            
WHERE DPVA IS MAXIMIZED.                                                        
AT LEAST SCT SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING                  
HOURS...AND MAY BECOME MORE CONCENTRATED FOR AWHILE THIS EVENING AS             
HEIGHT FALLS OVER SOUTHERN ONTARIO OVERSPREAD THE CWA. WILL MAKE A              
LAST MINUTE CALL ON POPS FOR THIS EVENING...BUT MAY NEED LIKELY FOR             
A FEW HOURS INTO THE EVENING. STILL A VERY MARGINAL RISK OF AN                  
ISOLATED SEVERE STORM THIS EVENING WITH ACTIVITY COMING OUT OF                  
SOUTHERN ONTARIO. LARGE SCALE FORCING AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR ARE QUITE            
FAVORABLE THIS EVENING...HOWEVER LACK OF STRONG INSTABILITY AND                 
RELATIVELY WEAK MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE THE MAIN LIMITING FACTOR.             
ANY MARGINAL SEVERE RISK WILL END BY MID OR LATE EVENING WITH                   
NOCTURNAL STABILIZATION OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER.                                  
OVERNIGHT THE MAIN MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS CROSSES THE AREA ALONG WITH            
WRAP AROUND MOISTURE...WHICH WILL KEEP THE CHANCES FOR A FEW SHOWERS            
OVERNIGHT.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...                             
ON FRIDAY CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES AS UNSEASONABLY STRONG                  
TROUGH DIGS ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. NW FLOW ALOFT ALWAYS TRICKY IN THIS             
AREA AND SUSPECT WE MAY SEE A BAND OF ENHANCED CONVERGENCE DEVELOP              
FROM THE NIAGARA PENINSULA EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF METRO               
BUF INTO THE WESTERN FINGER LAKES. MAY SEE SOME ENHANCED SHOWER                 
ACTIVITY ALONG THIS AXIS IF ENOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS.                  
EXPECT ANOTHER AREA OF MORE ENHANCED SHOWERS EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO               
WHERE DEEPER MOISTURE REMAINS AND FAVORABLE UPSLOPE FLOW DEVELOPS.              
HAVE GONE WITH LOW LIKELY POPS IN THIS AREA...WITH CHANCE ELSEWHERE.            
ANY LINGERING SHOWERS EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO END FRIDAY EVENING. HIGH             
PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD SLOWLY ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE              
UPCOMING WEEKEND. A CLOSED MID LEVEL LOW WILL EVENTUALLY DEVELOP                
OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION...HOWEVER OUR CWA WILL BE SITUATED NW              
OF THIS CLOSED LOW WITHIN A REGION OF MID LEVEL CONFLUENCE WHICH IS             
THE SO CALLED SWEET SPOT WITH FAIR AND SUNNY WEATHER.                           
TEMPS WILL START CHILLY ON FRIDAY WITH H85 TEMPS ONLY AROUND +10C               
SUPPORTING HIGHS IN THE LOW 70S ALONG THE LAKE PLAIN AND ONLY UPPER             
60S ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE SOUTHERN TIER AND EAST OF               
LAKE ONTARIO. TEMPS MODERATE BACK TO SEASONAL NORMS BY SUNDAY.                  
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...                                   
EARLY IN THIS PERIOD AN UPPER LEVEL IS STILL EXPECTED TO BE OVER THE            
EASTERN SEABOARD WITH A HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE STRETCHING FROM QUEBEC             
PROVINCE SOUTHWEST INTO THE NATION`S MIDSECTION. THE UPPER LOW IS               
EXPECTED TO MOVE VERY LITTLE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK BUT ANY                    
PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY REMAIN TO OUR EAST. OUR BEST CHANCE OF                
GETTING RAIN WILL BE TUESDAY AS A SHORT WAVE ROTATES THROUGH ON THE             
WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER LOW BUT EVEN THEN THE CHANCES ARE                
QUITE LOW. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO STAY JUST SLIGHTLY BELOW                
NORMAL THROUGH TUESDAY AND THEN WARM UP CONSIDERABLY WEDNESDAY AND              
THURSDAY AS THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS FURTHER EAST.                                
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...                                       
AN UPPER LOW DROPPING SE ACROSS THE LOWER LAKES WILL CONTINUE TO                
BRING SHOWERS WITH SOME EMBEDDED TSTMS ACROSS THE REGION EARLY                  
TONIGHT WITH CONDITIONS VARYING MAINLY FROM MVFR TO IFR. THE SHOWERS            
AND TSTMS SHLD DECREASE OVERNIGHT EXCEPT FOR AREAS EAST OF LAKE                 
ONTARIO. FRIDAY MORNING A SECONDARY TROUGH MOVING SE ACROSS THE AREA            
WILL BRING MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS AND THEY SHLD BE MORE               
PERSISTENT EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO. MVFR CIGS SHLD IMPROVE TO VFR BY               
FRIDAY AFTERNOON ESPECIALLY FROM THE FINGER LKS WESTWARD AS THE                 
SYSTEM MOVES FURTHER EAST.                                                      
THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK LOOKS LIKE A FAIR WEATHER PATTERN               
WITH VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING. A WEAK FRONT MAY PASS THROUGH THE               
AREA ON TUESDAY HOWEVER.                                                        
&&                                                                              
.MARINE...                                                                      
LOW PRESSURE CENTERED OVER EASTERN NEW YORK THIS AFTERNOON WILL                 
CONTINUE TO TRACK EASTWARD OVERNIGHT. A TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT               
DEVELOPING ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE LOW WILL HELP INCREASE THE WINDS             
ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKE REGION TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY. SINCE COLDER            
AIR WILL ALSO BE BUILDING IN BEHIND THIS SYSTEM THERE WILL BE                   
INSTABILITY AND A TRANSFER OF MOMENTUM FROM WINDS ALOFT. SMALL CRAFT            
ADVISORIES WILL BE ISSUED FOR BOTH THE LAKE ERIE AND LAKE ONTARIO               
SHORES. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO SLACKEN ACROSS LAKE ERIE FIRST FRIDAY               
AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE CENTRAL AND UPPER                
LAKES.                                                                          
THE WEEKEND LOOKS GOOD AT THIS POINT WITH LIGHTER WINDS AS THE HIGH             
CONTINUES TO MOVE SLOWLY EASTWARD.                                              
&&                                                                              
.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
NY...NONE.                                                                      
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 12 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR LEZ040-041.            
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 8 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR                  
         LOZ043>045.                                                            
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 8 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR                  
         LOZ042.                                                                
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SYNOPSIS...HITCHCOCK                                                            
NEAR TERM...HITCHCOCK                                                           
SHORT TERM...HITCHCOCK                                                          
LONG TERM...SAGE                                                                
AVIATION...JJP                                                                  
MARINE...SAGE                                                                   
</pre> ny                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC                               
925 PM EDT FRI JUL 20 2007                                                      
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST OVERNIGHT. LOW PRES WILL                   
DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT TONIGHT THEN MOVE NE AWAY FROM THE AREA ON              
SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE NORTH WILL RIDGE SOUTH INTO NC                 
WITH COOLER AIR SUNDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.                                 
&&                                                                              
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...                                     
CONVECTION HAS DIED OFF CONSIDERABLY OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS...STILL            
SOME LINGERING ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE ALBEMARLE SOUND...BUT BULK             
OF ACTIVITY IS ALONG THE NC/SC BORDER AND OFFSHORE. AS FOR THE                  
UPDATE TONIGHT...LOWERED MIN TEMPS INLAND A DEGREE OR TWO OVERNIGHT.            
SCALED BACK POPS QUITE A BIT...RUC AND ARW HAVE ALL ACTIVITY                    
OFFSHORE BY AROUND 07Z. KEPT ISOLATED CHANCE FOR COASTAL COUNTIES               
UNTIL AROUND MIDNIGHT. GENERALLY MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES THROUGHOUT THE             
FORECAST AREA...BECOMING PARTLY CLOUDY AS FRONT MOVES OFFSHORE OVER             
THE NEXT FEW HOURS.                                                             
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...                     
NAM LOOKS TO BE THE OBVIOUS CHOICE IN MODELS...ESPECIALLY FOR                   
TOMORROW MORNING IN LIGHT OF HOW IT IS VERIFYING THIS AFTERNOON.  WE            
CONT POPS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST IN THE 20-30 RANGE FOR TONIGHT              
AND KEEP SMALL POPS OVER THE EASTERN PORTION OF CWA FOR TOMORROW                
BASED ON NAM.   THEREAFTER...BOTH MODELS INDICATING DRIER WEATHER               
FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY.  MODELS HINT AT PCPN ON MONDAY BUT WILL OUT              
POPS ATTM BASED ON COLLABORATION.                                               
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...                                          
LOWER THAN NORMAL CONFIDENCE IN FORECAST. MODELS HAVING TROUBLE                 
HANDLING CUT-OFF UPPER LOW. SOME WANT TO RETROGRADE IT TOWARD THE               
SOUTH CENTRAL US INTO A STRONG UPPER RIDGE WHILE OTHERS WOULD KEEP              
IT OVER THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN APLCHS. WE FEEL CONFIDENT THAT COOLER              
AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE REGION BEHIND TONIGHTS FRONT...HOWEVER                 
COOL/CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT WOULD BE CONDUCIVE TO SCT SHOWERS/STORMS               
THROUGH THE PERIOD. THEREFORE WILL FORECAST TEMPS A LITTLE BELOW                
NORMAL WITH SMALL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS EACH DAY.                      
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION /01Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...                                   
CDFNT WILL MOVE THRU AREA OVERNIGHT WITH ISOLD CONVECTION ALG AND               
AHD OF THE FNT THRU ABT 12Z...AND WIND SHIFT TO THE N AND NE. FCST              
IFR CIGS AND MVFR VSBYS OVERNIGHT ACRS SRN TERMINAL SITES WHERE BTR             
LOW LVL MSTR IS AVBL...OTRW VFR CIGS/VSBYS EXPECTED THRU SAT EVE                
OUTSIDE OF ISOLD DIURNAL CONVECTION. SCT LOW CLDS EXPECTED TO DVLP              
DURG DAYTIME HTG ON SAT ARND 4K FT. GOOD CHC FOR IFR FOG EARLY SUN              
AND MONDAY MORNING IN LIGHT NLY FLOW. SCT AFTERNOON CONVECTION                  
SHOULD RETURN TO THE AREA TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS WE                 
RETURN TO A SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL WIND FLOW.                                      
&&                                                                              
.MARINE...                                                                      
DELAYED INCREASE OF STRONGER POST FRONTAL WINDS TIL LATER TONIGHT               
AND ALSO DECREASED THEM SLIGHTLY. OUR LOCAL WRF MODEL SEEMS TO BE               
TOO DEEP WITH SFC LOW INIT OFF THE CST AND THINK ITS WINDS ARE A                
BIT TOO STRONG. WENT CLOSER TO NAM/GFS AND KEPT MARGINAL SCA ALL                
WTRS DEVELOPING LATER TONIGHT. SCA WILL CONT N OF LOOKOUT INTO SAT              
NIGHT AS N/NE WINDS CONT IN THE 15 TO 20 KT RANGE WITH SEAS 4 TO 6              
FT.                                                                             
.RIP CURRENTS...                                                                
DEVELOPING ONSHORE FLOW NORTH OF HATTERAS WILL PRODUCE A MODERATE               
THREAT FOR RIP CURRENTS FOR SATURDAY AND PROBABLY SUNDAY AS WELL.               
&&                                                                              
.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
NC...NONE.                                                                      
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 11 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR               
     AMZ130-135.                                                                
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 AM SATURDAY TO 2 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR             
     AMZ150-152-154-156.                                                        
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO 11 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR                   
     AMZ158.                                                                    
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SYNOPSIS...JME                                                                  
NEAR TERM...CLQ                                                                 
SHORT TERM...TK                                                                 
LONG TERM...JME                                                                 
AVIATION...JC                                                                   
MARINE...RF                                                                     
</pre> nc                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC                                             
859 PM EDT FRI JUL 20 2007                                                      
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
A COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA OVERNIGHT. HIGH               
PRESSURE...AND A DRIER AND COOLER AIR MASS WILL BUILD IN FROM THE               
NORTHWEST OVER THE WEEKEND.                                                     
&&                                                                              
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...                                     
SFC ANALYSIS THIS EVENING SHOWS A BOUNDARY IN THE FORM OF A MOISTURE            
DISCONTINUITY (JULY COLD FRONT) SINKING SLOWLY SOUTH THROUGH                    
NORTH-CENTRAL NC. AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY DEWPOINTS WERE IN THE MID               
60S TO LOWER 70S...AND BEHIND THE BOUNDARY DEWPOINTS WERE IN THE MID            
50S (55F HNZ...54F DAN). A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WAS LOCATED                
NEAR/ALONG THE SC COAST BETWEEN CHARLESTON AND MYRTLE BEACH.                    
ALOFT...RUC H5 HEIGHT/VORTICITY FIELDS AND WV IMAGERY SHOW                      
SHORTWAVE ENERGY DROPPING SOUTHEAST THROUGH GA/SC.                              
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY THIS EVENING IS NOW CONFINED PRIMARILY TO SC...             
WITH A FEW WEAK SHOWERS IN FAR EASTERN NC. WITH THE SFC BOUNDARY                
DROPPING SOUTH INTO THE AREA AND DEWPOINTS FALLING INTO THE LOWER               
60S AND 50S...AND NOW THAT THE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT HAS SHIFTED SOUTH            
OF THE AREA...WITH TAKE POPS OUT EVERYWHERE EXCEPT FOR THE SC/NC                
BORDER COUNTIES WHERE A SLIGHT CHANCE (20%) FOR A SHOWER WILL BE                
LEFT IN UNTIL MIDNIGHT TO ACCOUNT FOR ONGOING ACTIVITY NEAR THE                 
SC/NC BORDER. OTHERWISE...FORECAST ON TRACK THIS EVENING WITH                   
PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES. -VINCENT                                         
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM /7 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...                           
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND NORTHEAST FLOW AT THE SURFACE WILL RESULT              
IN BELOW NORMAL TEMPS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. DESPITE MOSTLY SUNNY                 
SKIES TOMORROW...HIGHS WILL ONLY MAKE IT TO THE 83-87 DEGREE AS                 
1000-850 MB THICKNESSES FALL SEVERAL METERS BELOW CLIMO.                        
BY SATURDAY NIGHT...A PIECE OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SPLIT                
OFF FROM THE MAIN TROUGH...CLOSING OFF OVER THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC.                
THERE HAVE BEEN NUMEROUS MODEL SOLUTIONS ON HOW TO HANDLE THIS                  
CLOSED LOW...WITH MOST DATA NOW FAVORING A SLOW RETROGRESSION.                  
THIS IS IN STARK CONTRAST TO YESTERDAY WHERE THE GFS SHOWED THE                 
UPPER TROUGH LIFTING OFF TO THE NORTHEAST...RESULTING IN BUILDING               
HEIGHTS ACROSS THE EAST. EVEN THE ECMWF HAS HAD DIFFICULTY                      
GATHERING A HANDLE ON THE PATTERN. IT IS LOOKING INCREASINGLY                   
LIKELY THAT WE WILL HAVE A CLOSED LOW TO CONTEND WITH JUST TO OUR               
NORTH THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY. IT STILL REMAINS TO BE SEEN ON HOW               
DRASTICALLY THIS WILL ALTER OUR SENSIBLE WEATHER ON SUNDAY AND                  
MONDAY. WHAT IS LIKELY NOT TO CHANGE IS THE CONTINUATION OF BELOW               
NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S AND LOWS IN THE                       
60S...WITH PERHAPS A FEW UPPER 50S ON SUNDAY MORNING. ONE CHANGE                
WE COULD SEE IS MORE CLOUD COVER THAN WHAT WAS PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT.              
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES...AIDED BY THE              
DIFFERENTIAL IN THE HEATING OF THE SFC LAYER AND THE COOL CORE OF               
THE UPPER LOW. WITH POCKETS OF 850-700 MB MOISTURE ROTATING AROUND              
THE LOW...ENHANCED DIURNAL CUMULUS IS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE.                       
THE FORECAST WILL REMAIN DRY FOR NOW...BUT WE WILL HAVE TO MONITOR              
THE PROGRESSION OF THE CLOSED LOW. THE LATEST GUIDANCE IS HINTING               
AT SOME ISENTROPIC LIFT SUN NIGHT/MONDAY AS THE SFC FLOW REMAINS                
E/NE AND THE LOW TO MID LEVEL FLOW AROUND THE UPPER LOW TURNS                   
S/SE. NEEDLESS TO SAY...MORE UNCERTAINTY REVOLVES AROUND THIS                   
PORTION OF THE FORECAST COMPARED TO THIS TIME YESTERDAY.                        
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...                                     
MODELS DO NOT IN GENERAL HANDLE CLOSED UPPER LOWS WELL. SOLUTIONS BY            
THE MODELS FOR THIS PERIOD ARE A DIVERSE BUNCH...THUS CONFIDENCE IS             
LESS THAN LOW. THE FORECAST WILL BE REASONABLY SIMILAR TO THE                   
CURRENT FORECAST...WITH AN UPPER LOW DISTANCING ITSELF FROM NORTH               
CAROLINA TOWARD THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. THIS ALLOWS AFTERNOON                 
TEMPERATURES TO RETURN TO THE LOW 90S BY THE END OF THE WORK WEEK.              
WILL LIMIT RAIN CHANCES TO LESS THAN ONE IN THREE AND MAINLY                    
DURING THE FAVORED PERIOD OF AFTERNOONS AND EVENINGS.                           
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION /01Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...                                   
LIGHT PRECIPITATION WILL BE ENDING FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST THIS             
AFTERNOON. CEILINGS GENERALLY NOT WIDESPREAD AND ASSOCIATED WITH                
PRECIPITATION... OTHERWISE CEILINGS ABOVE 10000 FEET. WITH LIGHT                
NORTH WINDS ONLY BRIEF MVFR FOG NEAR DAWN EXPECTED...EXCEPT PERHAPS             
ROCKY MOUNT. NO STRATUS DEVELOPMENT FORECAST. A FEW CUMULUS SHOULD              
APPEAR IN THE LATE MORNING SATURDAY.                                            
DRY CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST FOR SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AS A              
LOW LEVEL NORTHEAST FLOW SETS UP. VFR CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED DURING             
THIS PERIOD. THE FORECAST FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK IS                 
UNCERTAIN... ALTHOUGH CHANCES FOR AFTERNOON SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS            
WILL LIKELY RETURN TO THE FORECAST BY MID WEEK.                                 
&&                                                                              
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
NONE.                                                                           
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SYNOPSIS...VINCENT                                                              
NEAR TERM...VINCENT                                                             
SHORT TERM...JFB                                                                
LONG TERM...RLH                                                                 
AVIATION...RLH                                                                  
</pre> nc                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC                                             
320 AM EDT FRI JUL 20 2007                                                      
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
A COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA TODAY. A DRIER                
AND MORE SEASONABLE AIR MASS WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTHWEST OVER              
THE WEEKEND.                                                                    
&&                                                                              
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...                                                 
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY IS CURRENTLY DROPPING SOUTH OVER WFO RALEIGH. THE              
AIR MASS OVER ALL BUT THE FAR NORTHERN COUNTIES REMAINS MODERATELY              
UNSTABLE WITH LAPS SOUNDINGS AND RUC ANALYSES SHOWING CAPES HOLDING             
AOA 1000 J/KG... HOWEVER THE LARGE SCALE FORCING IN THE FORM OF MID             
LEVEL POSITIVE VORTICITY ADVECTION AND UPPER DIVERGENCE IS STILL                
HOLDING JUST N AND NW OF THE CWA. UPSTREAM CONVECTION HAS WEAKENED              
CONSIDERABLY OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS AND APPEARS TO BE FALLING                  
VICTIM TO THE INCREASINGLY WESTERLY 850 MB FLOW... DIMINISHED                   
INSTABILITY... AND DECREASED LOW LEVEL CONFLUENCE. THE COLD FRONT...            
AS DEFINED BY THE LEADING EDGE OF MUCH LOWER SURFACE THETA-E                    
VALUES... CONTINUES A STEADY SSE MOVEMENT THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY...            
ON TRACK TO DROP THROUGH NC FROM MID-LATE MORNING THROUGH MID                   
EVENING. PRECIP COVERAGE AHEAD OF THE FRONT MAY BE LIMITED SOMEWHAT             
BY THE WESTERLY LOW LEVEL WINDS... HOWEVER THIS IS LIKELY TO ONLY               
AFFECT THE PIEDMONT COUNTIES... WHERE POPS TODAY ARE ALREADY LOWER              
THAN TO THE EAST AND SOUTH... WHERE MORNING SUN WILL HELP WITH                  
DESTABILIZATION AND THERMODYNAMIC FORCING TO PRODUCE BETTER SHOWER              
AND STORM COVERAGE. WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF 1.8-2.1                   
INCHES... NOT MUCH LIFT IS NEEDED TO PRODUCE PRECIPITATION. HAVE                
HELD WITH 40-53% POPS. SEVERE STORM THREAT WILL BE LIMITED BY THE               
LOW 15-20 KTS (AT MOST) DEEP LAYER SHEAR... THE FAIRLY WEAK MID                 
LEVEL LAPSE RATES... AND THE FORECAST SKINNY CAPE WHICH FAVORS                  
WEAKER VERTICAL ACCELERATIONS. BUT THE FLOW WILL STILL BE ENOUGH FOR            
ORGANIZED MULTICELLS AND THE LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL BE HIGH                 
ENOUGH FOR THE RISK OF DAMAGING WINDS WITH A FEW CELLS... AND LIFT              
MAY ALSO BE ENHANCED BY UPPER DIVERGENCE IN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE                  
REGION OF THE JET. HIGHS 85-93... BANKING ON ENOUGH SUNSHINE EARLY              
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST CWA TO PUSH UP TEMPERATURES. MODELS ARE STILL              
INDICATING A QUICK EXIT OF THE PRECIP OUT OF THE AREA BY 00Z... AND             
HAVE HELD ONTO POPS IN THE SOUTH AND EAST ONLY THROUGH MID EVENING.             
THE COLUMN DRIES OUT CONSIDERABLY AND SKY COVER SHOULD QUICKLY                  
DECREASE FROM N TO S TONIGHT... ALTHOUGH JET-INDUCED HIGH CLOUDS                
SHOULD PERSIST. LOWS 60-70. -GIH                                                
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...                                  
A SCENARIO OF ABUNDANT SUNSHINE AND A STABILIZING COLUMN OVER THE               
WEEKEND LOOKED LIKE A SURE BET YESTERDAY WITH THE FRONT SOUTHEAST OF            
THE CWA AND HIGH PRESSURE BEGINNING TO BUILD IN FROM THE                        
NORTHWEST... HOWEVER THE LATEST MODELS HAVE THROWN A BIT OF A WRENCH            
INTO THIS PICTURE WITH NORTHEAST LOW LEVEL FLOW BRINGING PATCHES OF             
850-700 MB MOISTURE ACROSS CENTRAL NC THROUGH THE PERIOD. IF THIS               
MOISTURE ADVECTION DOES COME TO PASS... WHICH IS ENTIRELY POSSIBLE              
CONSIDERING THE CURRENT MOISTURE ON THE EASTERN FRIDGE OF THE                   
SURFACE HIGH... GIVEN THE LIKELIHOOD THAT THE MOISTURE WILL BE                  
TRAPPED BY THE WEAK SUBSIDENCE INVERSION ALOFT... PERIODS OF PARTLY             
TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ARE CERTAINLY POSSIBLE OVER THE WEEKEND...               
PARTICULARLY WITH THE MID LEVEL VORTEX SETTLING OVER VA AND NORTHERN            
NC. HAVE RAISED SKY COVER A BIT... BUT KEPT IT IN THE PARTLY CLOUDY             
TERRITORY FOR NOW. HAVE MADE MINOR DOWNWARD ADJUSTMENTS TO HIGHS...             
83-88 BOTH DAYS. LOWS 59-64 THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.                               
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...                                         
THE GFS HAS BEEN FAIRLY CONSISTENT TAKING THE MID LEVEL VORTEX                  
SLOWLY NNE INTO NEW ENGLAND MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY WITH THE TRAILING            
TROUGH AXIS CONTINUING TO EXTEND DOWN THROUGH WESTERN NC AND THE                
WESTERN GULF STATES. HIGH PRESSURE WILL NOSE INTO NC FROM THE                   
NORTH... WITH NORTHERLY LOW LEVEL WINDS BOOSTED BY THE FLOW AROUND              
THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER OFF DELMARVA. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW                   
LIMITED BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE AND QUITE A BIT OF WARM AND DRY AIR             
IN THE MID LEVELS MONDAY... AND A CONTINUED DRY FORECAST AND BELOW              
NORMAL TEMPERATURES LOOKS GOOD. MID LEVEL HEIGHTS RISE QUICKLY OVER             
NC TUESDAY... AND THE HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST BECOMES             
OUR DOMINANT SURFACE FEATURE WITH INCREASING ONSHORE LOW LEVEL SOUTH            
AND SOUTHEAST FLOW INTO NC AS WHAT IS LEFT OF THE OLD FRONT SHIFTS              
NORTHWARD. AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER AND SLIGHT CHANCE POPS LOOKS              
JUSTIFIED... AND FURTHERMORE... IF THE 00Z/20 GFS IS CORRECT WITH               
ITS DEEP SATURATED COLUMN... HIGHER RAIN CHANCES MAY BE NEEDED FOR              
TUESDAY. THE PICTURE GETS MURKIER WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY AS THE GFS NOW             
DEVELOPS A WEAK MID LEVEL LOW OVER THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS...                 
AGAINST THE PREVIOUS RUN WHICH DEVELOPED IT MUCH FARTHER SOUTHWEST              
OVER AL/AR. WITH SUCH A WEAK FLOW PATTERN AND THE AVAILABILITY OF               
ATLANTIC MOISTURE FEEDING INTO NC... WILL KEEP LOW CHANCE DAYTIME               
POPS... PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES... AND NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE             
NORMAL TEMPERATURES BOTH DAYS. -GIH                                             
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...                                       
A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH AND NUMEROUS CONVECTIVE BOUNDARIES WERE COMING             
SOUTH INTO NORTHERN NC AS OF 200 AM/FRIDAY MORNING. WHERE THESE                 
BOUNDARIES END UP THIS MORNING WILL PROBABLY BE WHERE THE INITIAL               
CONVECTION FIRES TODAY. THE NW TERMINALS (KINT AND KGSO) APPEAR TO              
GET THE WIND SHIFT TO THE NW-N BEFORE CONVECTION CAN DEVELOP THIS               
MORNING. KRDU/KRWI SHOULD SEE THE BEST CHANCE FROM AROUND NOON                  
THROUGH MID AFTERNOON (WILL INCLUDE CB IN THE TAF FOR NOW). KFAY                
WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCE FROM MID AFTERNOON TO SUNSET OR SO. COLD              
FRONT WILL BE WELL SE OF THE AREA BY MIDNIGHT TONIGHT... WITH ONLY A            
BIT OF MVFR FOG AT KFAY/KRWI OVERNIGHT.                                         
DRY CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST FOR SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY AS A LOW                
LEVEL NE FLOW SETS UP. VFR CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED.  THE OUTLOOK FOR             
NEXT WEEK IS FOR VFR UNDER DRY HIGH PRESSURE.                                   
&&                                                                              
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
NONE.                                                                           
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SYNOPSIS...HARTFIELD                                                            
NEAR TERM...HARTFIELD                                                           
SHORT TERM...HARTFIELD                                                          
LONG TERM...HARTFIELD                                                           
AVIATION...BADGETT                                                              
</pre> nc                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC                                             
1003 PM EDT THU JUL 19 2007                                                     
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
A COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY AFTERNOON.             
A DRIER AND MORE SEASONABLE AIR MASS WILL BUILD IN FROM THE                     
NORTHWEST OVER THE WEEKEND.                                                     
&&                                                                              
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...                                       
WHAT LITTLE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY DID DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON HAS SINCE            
DIED OUT ACROSS THE AREA. ONE STORM THAT DEVELOPED IN ALAMANCE                  
COUNTY BECAME QUITE IMPRESSIVE...PROMPTING A WARNING AS IT DEVELOPED            
FROM VIRTUALLY NOTHING INTO A 50-55 KFT ECHO TOP STORM WITH MAX                 
REFLECTIVITIES AROUND 70 DBZ UP TO 26 KFT IN ONLY 20-25 MINUTES! THE            
STORM SUBSEQUENTLY PRODUCED WIND DAMAGE NEAR THE ALAMANCE/ORANGE                
COUNTY BORDER SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 85.                                           
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY CONTINUES NORTH OF THE AREA FROM VA ALL THE WAY             
WEST THROUGH KY INTO MO. NAM12/RUC MODEL DATA AND CURRENT OBS SHOW              
THIS ACTIVITY HAS DEVELOPED ALONG AND AHEAD OF A SHORTWAVE AND                  
ELONGATED VORT MAX ASSOC/W AN AMPLIFYING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER                
THE GREAT LAKES AND MID ATLANTIC...AND AHEAD OF A SFC COLD FRONT                
DROPPING SOUTH THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY. THIS ACTIVITY WILL STAY                 
NORTH AND NORTHWEST OF THE AREA FOR MOST OF TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH                  
N/NW PORTIONS OF THE CWA...INCLUDING THE TRIAD...MAY SEE                        
SHOWERS...OR POSSIBLY AN ISOLATED STORM...APPROACHING BEFORE                    
SUNRISE AS THE SHORTWAVE ENERGY AND SFC COLD FRONT CONTINUE TO                  
DROP SOUTH. CURRENT FORECAST DEPICTS THIS WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF               
SHOWERS/STORMS BEGINNING AT 09Z WEST AND NORTH OF THE                           
TRIANGLE...WITH CHANCES EXPANDING TO THE EAST AND SOUTH AND                     
INCREASING AFTER SUNRISE. OTHER THAN A FEW MINOR CHANGES TO CLOUD               
COVER AND HOURLY TEMPS/DEWPOINTS...NO CHANGE TO THE CURRENT                     
FORECAST IS PLANNED THIS EVENING. -VINCENT                                      
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM /7 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...                     
THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH CENTRAL NC DURING                
THE DAY TOMORROW AS A LONGWAVE TROUGH AMPLIFIES OVER THE EASTERN                
U.S. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA AS A RESULT...PROVIDING             
AT LEAST A SOMEWHAT BETTER CHANCE FOR PRECIP. THERE IS STILL SOME               
MODEL DISAGREEMENT ON TIMING OF THE FRONT WITH THE NAM BEING ABOUT              
6 HRS QUICKER THAN THE GFS...BRINGING THE FRONT THROUGH BEFORE                  
18Z. BOTH MODELS DO SLOW THE FRONT DOWN SOME BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON              
AS A WEAK SFC LOW DEVELOPS ALONG THE FRONT AND TRACKS UP EASTERN                
NC. THE EXACT TRACK OF THE SFC LOW WILL DETERMINE BETTER RAIN                   
CHANCES AND SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL.                                           
KEPT POPS IN THE CHANCE CATEGORY FOR NOW. THERE WILL BE LARGE                   
SCALE ASCENT AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE ALONG WITH A WARM AND MOIST                 
AIRMASS. HOWEVER...PERSISTENT WESTERLY FLOW IN THE LOW LEVELS WILL              
LIKELY INHIBIT CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL TO SOME DEGREE. BEST CHANCES                
WILL BE IN THE COASTAL PLAIN...DUE TO EXPECTED LONGER DURATION OF               
DESTABILIZATION AND CLOSER PROXIMITY TO WEAK SFC LOW DEVELOPMENT.               
REGARDING SVR WX POTENTIAL...SPC HAS PLACED THE SOUTHERN COASTAL                
PLAIN IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR TOMORROW. CANNOT RULE OUT A SVR STORM                
OR TWO TOMORROW GIVEN MLCAPES OF 1000-1500 J/KG AND THE PRESENCE                
OF LARGE SCALE ASCENT WITH THE UPPER TROUGH. A FEW NEGATIVES ARE                
THE LACK OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR (ONLY ON THE ORDER OF 20-25KTS) AND                
WEAK MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WITH FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOWING A NEAR               
MOIST ADIABATIC PROFILE. HAIL POTENTIAL IS LIMITED GIVEN HIGH                   
FREEZING LEVELS OF AROUND 14 KFT AND -20C AROUND 25 KFT. LOCALIZED              
DAMAGING WINDS APPEAR TO BE THE MAIN THREAT.                                    
SFC FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL ENERGY MOVE EAST TOMORROW NIGHT WITH                  
COOL HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN ON SATURDAY. TEMPS WILL DROP TO                  
BELOW NORMAL LEVELS UNDER THE DEEP NORTHERLY FLOW.                              
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...                                         
THE ANOMALOUSLY DEEP TROUGH WILL PERSIST OVER THE EAST ON SUNDAY...             
MAINTAINING OUR DRY WEATHER AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. THERE                
IS SOME DISAGREEMENT IN THE MID RANGE MODELS ON HOW TO HANDLE THE               
TROUGH AFTER SUNDAY. THE ECMWF WANTS TO CLOSE OFF THE LOW AND                   
RETROGRADE IT WEST WHILE THE GFS AND ITS ENSEMBLES BEGIN TO LIFT                
OUT THE TROUGH BY THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEK. FOR NOW WILL SIDE                  
WITH THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN SHOWING HEIGHTS RISING ACROSS OUR AREA               
NEXT WEEK. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN A GRADUAL RETURN TO NORMAL                     
TEMPS...POSSIBLY BECOMING ABOVE NORMAL BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.              
THE ONLY RAIN CHANCES IN THE EXTEND LOOK TO BE POSSIBLE ISOLATED                
DIURNAL CONVECTION WED/THU.                                                     
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION /02Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...                                       
LIMITED CONVECTION DEVELOPED IN THE EARLY AFTERNOON OUTSIDE CENTRAL             
NORTH CAROLINA. SOME CONVECTION SHOULD DRIFT IN FROM THE WEST BEFORE            
SUNSET AND DEVELOPMENT IN THE SOUTHEAST IS STILL POSSIBLE. COVERAGE             
SHOULD BE LIMITED AND ODDS ARE TAF SITES WILL BE DRY. MVFR FOG                  
MAINLY NEAR DAWN ALTHOUGH LIKELY DEVELOPING EARLIER IN THE EAST                 
WHERE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS BEST. TROUGH FORECAST TO SWEEP INTO THE             
NORTHWEST AROUND SUNRISE. WITH WINDS ALOFT FROM THE WEST AHEAD OF               
THIS SYSTEM... MUCH OF CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA COULD END UP                      
DRY...WITH LOW VFR CEILINGS FAILING TO DEVELOP OTHER THAN TOWARD THE            
VIRGINIA BORDER.                                                                
SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE                   
FORECAST THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. AREAS OF MVFR CONDITIONS IN FOG EACH             
MORNING AROUND DAWN. DRY CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST FOR SATURDAY INTO              
THE FIRST OF NEXT WEEK.                                                         
&&                                                                              
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
NONE.                                                                           
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SYNOPSIS...VINCENT                                                              
NEAR TERM...VINCENT                                                             
SHORT TERM...JFB                                                                
LONG TERM...JFB                                                                 
AVIATION...RLH                                                                  
</pre> nc                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC                                             
950 AM EDT THU JUL 19 2007                                                      
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
WARM... HUMID... AND UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL PERSIST OVER THE REGION             
INTO FRIDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA LATE             
FRIDAY. A DRIER AND MORE SEASONABLE AIR MASS WILL BUILD IN FROM THE             
NORTHWEST OVER THE WEEKEND.                                                     
&&                                                                              
.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...                                                           
HEAT...00Z NAM MODEL CAME AROUND TO THE PREVIOUS DAYS GFS LOW                   
LEVEL THICKNESS PATTERN...WITH A MAXIMA OVER VIRGINIA...BUT                     
DROPPED THICKNESS ABOUT 14 METERS FROM THE WEDNESDAY RUN.                       
GREENSBORO THICKNESS CAME IN AT 1424 METERS THIS MORNING AND THE                
OVERNIGHT MODEL FORECAST OF ONLY A SINGLE DIGIT RISE IN THICKNESS               
SIMPLY IS NOT GOING TO HAPPEN. THE RUC MODEL VALUES OF 1440 PLUS                
METERS AND 850 TEMPERATURES IN EXCESS OF 20 CELSIUS NEAR AND WEST               
OF HIGHWAY ONE LOOK MUCH MORE REASONABLE FOR 21Z TODAY. DIURNAL                 
RISES OVER THE PAST TWO DAYS HAVE BEEN ABOUT 17 METERS. HEAT ALOFT              
IN THE WEST WILL EVEN OUT THE SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND EXPECT                   
LITTLE VARIATION ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA 97 TO NEAR 100.                  
BEST BET FOR TRIPLE DIGITS WOULD BE ROANOKE RAPIDS.                             
DEW POINTS AT 9 AM ARE MID 60S IN THE TRIAD (NORTHWEST)... AROUND               
70 NEAR HIGHWAY ONE AND AROUND 73 IN THE EAST. WEST FLOW ALOFT                  
WILL BRING SOME DOWNSLOPE DRYING AND HEATING TO THE WEST...BUT                  
WIND SPEEDS ARE NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO ADVECT THIS ACROSS THE ENTIRE                
AREA. AS WE MIX WITH HEATING TO LEVELS ABOVE 7000 FEET...CURRENT                
DEW POINTS SHOULD FALL AT LEAST A COUPLE OF DEGREES. THIS WOULD                 
PUT HEAT INDICES HIGHWAY ONE AND EAST ABOVE 100 DEGREES FOR MUCH                
OF THE AFTERNOON WITH SOME LOCATIONS BRIEFLY TOUCHING 105.                      
CONVECTION...MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE NOT GREATLY UNSTABLE                     
HOWEVER LIFTED INDICES FALL TO AROUND MINUS SIX OR SEVEN THIS                   
AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH WEST FLOW IS WEAK...IT SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO                  
KEEP THE SEA BREEZE FROM MOVING TOO FAR INLAND. THE BEST MOISTURE               
IS IN OUR EAST PARTS EAST OF INTERSTATE 95 AND RAIN CHANCE...                   
THOUGH SMALL...WILL BE BEST THERE. CAPE VALUES POTENTIALLY OF 3 TO              
4 THOUSAND. WINDS ARE WEAK BUT HIGH MIXING HEIGHTS AND AN INVERTED              
"V" BOUNDARY LAYER RISK EVAPORATIVE COOLING AIDED DOWNBURSTS                    
REACHING THE GROUND. ALTHOUGH FREEZING LEVELS ARE HIGH...A STRONG               
CONVECTIVE CORE WILL LOCALLY DROP FREEZING LEVELS. A SINGLE CELL                
WITH GOLF BALL HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE...MAINLY              
HIGHWAY ONE AND EAST.                                                           
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... MUCH OF TONIGHT LOOKS DRY...          
ALTHOUGH THE MODELS DEPICT MID LEVEL POSITIVE VORTICITY ADVECTINO PUSHING       
INTO THE NORTHWEST PIEDMONT TOWARD MORNING. TRYING TO PIN DOWN THE              
TIMING AND STRENGTH OF MID LEVEL DYNAMICS RESULTING FROM ONGOING                
COPIOUS MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE COMPLEX ACTIVITY OVER THE MIDWEST IS               
DICEY AT BEST... ESPECIALLY WITH THE DEGREE OF CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK              
NOTED ON THE GFS. ALSO OF NOTE IS THE NAM`S 850 MILLIBAR THETA-E                
RIDGE AND 30 TO 35 KNOT WESTERLY 850 MILLIBAR JETLET BOTH NOSING                
INTO SOUTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA OVERNIGHT... SUGGESTING THE NORTH                 
CAROLINA MOUNTAINS INTO THE SOUTHERN PIEDMONT COULD SEE A WEAK                  
MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE COMPLEX OVERNIGHT. WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE                
ON THIS POTENTIAL... AND FOR NOW WILL BRING IN A SLIGHT CHANCE IN               
THE FAR WESTERN COUNTIES VERY LATE TONIGHT. WILL HAVE ISOLATED                  
POPS IN THE NORTHWEST FRIDAY MORNING WITH THE POSSIBLE POSITIVE                 
VORTICITY ADVECTION... BUT THE BETTER COVERAGE OVERALL SHOULD HOLD              
OFF UNTIL THE CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURE IS ACHIEVED IN THE LATE                    
MORNING TO EARLY AFTERNOON ON FRIDAY. WILL HANG ON TO 40 TO 50                  
PERCENT POPS FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING... TAPERING OFF                
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE FRONT DROPS SOUTHEAST.               
WHILE THE DEEP LAYER SHEAR IMPROVES FRIDAY... THE INSTABILITY IS                
MARGINAL WITH SREF INDICATING UNIMPRESSIVE PROBABILITIES FOR CAPES              
OVER 2000 J/KG... SO WHILE ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE...               
LATEST INDICATIONS DO NOT FAVOR WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER. LOWS 70              
TO 75 AND HIGHS 87 TO 93... A CATEGORY BELOW THE MAV MOS GUIDANCE               
FOR HIGHS AND VERY CLOSE TO THE CURRENT FORECAST. TOTAL                         
PRECIPITATION THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT IN CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA IS                 
EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM A QUARTER TO THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH.                  
-GIH                                                                            
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...                                
HIGH PRESSURE NOSES INTO NORTH CAROLINA FROM THE NORTHWEST INTO                 
MONDAY BEFORE WEAKENING IN FAVOR OF A WESTERN ATLANTIC HIGH. THE                
MID LEVEL LOW IS EXPECTED TO DRIFT EAST SOUTHEAST FROM                          
PENNSYLVANIA BEFORE PLODDING NORTHEASTWARD INTO NEW ENGLAND BY                  
TUESDAY. DURING THIS TIME THE GFS SWINGS WEAK LOBES OF VORTICITY                
AROUND THE TROUGH BASE THROUGH NORTH CAROLINA... THE MOST NOTABLE               
OF WHICH DROPS THROUGH LATE SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT... GENERATING               
PRECIPITATION OVER SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA.                  
TIME SECTIONS SHOW A LIFT SOURCE AROUND 700 MILLIBAR ASSOCIATED                 
WITH A LIKELY SPURIOUS VORTICITY MAXIMUM... AND WITH A GENERALLY                
DRY COLUMN AND FLOW... WILL CONTINUE WITH DRY WEATHER FOR THIS                  
PERIOD. MID LEVEL HEIGHTS CONTINUE TO RISE OVER NORTH CAROLINA                  
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS THE EASTERN NOAM TROUGH DEAMPLIFIES AND                
LIFTS EAST... WHILE THE ATLANTIC RIDGE BEGINS TO DOMINATE OUR                   
WEATHER ANEW WITH RISING LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES TO ABOVE NORMAL                  
VALUES. WITH A WEAK MID LEVEL SHEAR AXIS AGAIN SETTING UP FROM THE              
NORTH ATLANTIC TROUGH AND ACROSS NORTH CAROLINA TO A TEXAS LOW BY               
WEDNESDAY... WE SHOULD RETURN TO A NORMAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN WITH               
AFTERNOON CAPES NEARING 2000 J/KG AND ISOLATED AFTERNOON STORMS.                
CURRENT TREND OF TEMPERATURES RISING BACK TO ABOVE NORMAL BY                    
WEDNESDAY STILL LOOKS QUITE GOOD. -GIH                                          
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION /13Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...                                      
LIMITED MOISTURE THIS MORNING SHOULD CURTAIL FOG DEVELOPMENT. THE               
EXCEPTION WILL BE THE EASTERN TAFS WHERE DEWPOINT SPREADS ARE A                 
LITTLE CLOSER. MVFR VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE THROUGH 13Z AT RDU/FAY.               
IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS LIKELY THROUGH 13Z AT RWI IN STRATUS AND FOG.               
AFTER 13Z OVER THE TAF AREA... SCATTERED CLOUDS AT 5 THOUSAND FEET              
WITH SCATTERED TO BROKEN ALTOCUMULUS AT OR ABOVE 10 THOUSAND                    
FEET. A SURFACE TROUGH WILL COMBINE WITH PRECIPITABLE WATERS VALUES             
AROUND 1.75 INCHES AND TEMPERATURES REACHING WELL INTO THE 90S TO               
PRODUCE SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS... WHICH                  
WILL BE TIMED IN WITH LATER FORECAST.                                           
SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE                   
FORECAST THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. AREAS OF MVFR CONDITIONS IN FOG EACH             
MORNING AROUND DAWN. DRY CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST FOR SATURDAY INTO              
THE FIRST OF NEXT WEEK. -RHJ                                                    
&&                                                                              
.CLIMATE...                                                                     
RECORD HIGHS FOR TODAY (JULY 19):                                               
GSO - 98 - 1977                                                                 
RDU - 99 - 1986                                                                 
&&                                                                              
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
NONE.                                                                           
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</pre> nc                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH                                           
910 PM EDT FRI JUL 20 2007                                                      
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVING SOUTH THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES                
WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA SATUARDAY AND DOMINATE THE WEATHER ACROSS               
THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND.                                                   
&&                                                                              
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...                                                
CUMULUS OVER MUCH OF THE EASTERN FORECAST AREA HAS DECREASED FOR                
THE TIME BEING. CLOUDS OVER NORTHWEST OHIO CONTINUE AND WILL                    
EVENTUALLY DECREASE AS THE VORT MAX THAT WAS CAUSING THEM MOVES                 
SOUTH OF THE AREA. OVER THE NORTHEAST PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA              
WITH THE LAKE AND 850 MB TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCE OVER 13C SOME LAKE              
EFFECT CLOUDS WILL DEVELOP OVERNIGHT. MOST MODELS ESPECIALLY THE NAM AND        
RUC INDICATE THIS. WILL FORECAST PARTLY CLOUDY OVER THE EASTERN                 
AREAS. DID SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE MINIMUM TEMPERATURES                   
BASED ON THE LOW DEWPOINTS LATE THIS AFTERNOON. ONLY A FEW                      
LOCATIONS WILL BE CLOSE TO RECORD LOWS.                                         
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVERHEAD FOR SATURDAY SO EXPECT A SUNNY                  
START ACROSS THE AREA. HOWEVER...WITH H850 TEMPS AROUND 8-9C AND                
CU RULE ANALYSIS... EXPECT CU TO POP UP AGAIN FROM LATE MORNING                 
ON ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. TEMPS               
WILL AGAIN RANGE MAINLY IN THE 70S ACROSS THE AREA TOMORROW WITH                
THE COOLEST TEMPS ACROSS NE OH/NW PA WHERE CU FIELD IS EXPECTED.                
OTHERWISE EXPECTING DRY CONDITIONS.                                             
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...                                  
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE ACROSS THE AREA                 
FROM SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. AT THIS TIME EXPECTING DRY                     
CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY ACROSS THE AREA WITH TEMPS                
WARMING SLIGHTLY BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND. BY MONDAY...BOTH NAM                
AND GFS BEGINNING TO SHOW UPPER LOW BEGINNING TO CLOSE OFF OVER                 
THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WEAKENING OVER               
THE AREA. WITH LOW EXPECTED TO BEGIN CLOSING OFF EAST OF THE AREA               
KEPT MONDAY DRY ESPECIALLY FOR WESTERN AREAS. CONTINUED TO TREND                
TOWARDS WARMER TEMPS...INTO THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S BUT WILL                 
HAVE TO WATCH FOR CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE AREA AT THIS TIME.                     
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...                                     
FEATURE THAT WILL HAVE TO BE WATCH DURING THIS TIME PERIOD WILL BE              
A CLOSED OFF UPPER LOW THAT IS EXPECTED TO LINGER ACROSS THE AREA               
THROUGH LATE IN THE WEEK. EARLIER RUN OF THE GFS THIS MORNING BEGAN TO          
SHOW UPPER LOW LINGER ACROSS THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS WITH A SLIGHT             
RETROGRADE WEST. LOOKING AT THE ECMWF RUNS THERE WAS QUITE A                    
ABRUPT SHIFT WITH EARLIER RUNS KEEPING THE UPPER LOW WELL TO THE                
EAST OF THE AREA...THEN SHIFTING THE LOW BACK WEST TOWARDS SW OH.               
LATEST 12Z GFS NOW SHIFTS THIS UPPER LOW EVEN FURTHER BACK TO THE               
WEST. EVEN 12Z NAM HINTING AT THIS TREND.                                       
GIVEN THAT THIS IS A RELATIVELY NEW INDICATION OF GUIDANCE IN THE               
LONGER TERM...DID MENTION SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE AREA               
IN THE GRIDS BEGINNING ON TUE. GFSX INDICATING A BIT HIGHER POPS                
FROM TUE ON...BUT WOULD LIKE TO SEE SOME MORE RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY            
OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO BEFORE INCREASING POPS.                                 
AS FOR TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD REMAINED CLOSE TO GUIDANCE                      
VALUES...BUT DID TREND FORECAST TEMPS DOWN A BIT DURING THE PERIOD              
GIVEN THE POSSIBILITY OF MORE CLOUDS AND SHRA/TSTM ACROSS THE AREA.             
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION /01Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...                                   
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. LARGE                 
SFC HIGH CENTERED OVER WISCONSIN WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY                  
NEXT 24 HOURS. EXPECT SOME LINGERING SCT040-060 AS AN UPPER LEVEL               
TROUGH SWINGS ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. COULD ALSO SEE SOME LAKE                 
EFFECT CLOUDS DEVELOP AND PUSH INLAND FROM CLEVELAND EAST.                      
EXPECT LIGHT N-NE FLO OVERNIGHT.                                                
HIGH PRES WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA THRU TUESDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL                
DISTURBANCE MAY BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION TO                       
NW PA AND EASTERN OHIO WEDNESDAY. ALSO WATCH FOR SOME PATCHY FOG                
ESPECIALLY SATURDAY MORNING AND MAYBE EVEN SUNDAY MORNING AS WINDS              
GO LIGHT AND SOME POCKETS OF LEFT OVER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE.                      
&&                                                                              
.MARINE...                                                                      
COLD ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT CONTINUES THIS AFTERNOON...HOWEVER              
WINDS HAVE REMAINED MARGINAL FOR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SINCE 16Z.                
THINK THAT THE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE ON THE DECREASE THIS                   
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...BUT WILL LET THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY                   
CONTINUE TIL 4AM AND EXPIRE AS SCHEDULED. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER             
THE LAKE TOMORROW AND WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF                
NEXT WEEK. WINDS SHOULD REMAIN LIGHT AND VARIABLE ON THE LAKE                   
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK DESPITE WIDELY VARYING MODEL                    
SOLUTIONS.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
OH...NONE.                                                                      
PA...NONE.                                                                      
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR LEZ142>149.           
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SYNOPSIS...ABE                                                                  
NEAR TERM...KIELTYKA                                                            
SHORT TERM...ABE                                                                
LONG TERM...ABE                                                                 
AVIATION...DJB                                                                  
MARINE...LEINS                                                                  
</pre> oh                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD                                            
946 AM CDT FRI JUL 20 2007                                                      
.UPDATE...                                                                      
MORNING UPDATE INCLUDES A NUDGING OF MAX TEMPERATURE UPWARDS BY 2               
TO 4 DEGREES ACROSS THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE FORECAST AREA.                     
STILL LOOKS LIKE PLENTIFUL SUNSHINE TODAY...AS LOW STRATUS DECK                 
/INFERRING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN/ LIFTING UP ACROSS SOUTHWEST               
AND SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA FROM NEBRASKA IS EXPECTED TO                     
DISSIPATE THIS MORNING AS BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING PICKS UP IN                     
EARNEST. LATEST RUC/NAM DATASETS SUPPORT LOW TO MID 90S /AT                     
MINIMUM/ OUT ACROSS THE WEST RIVER COUNTIES OF                                  
CORSON...DEWEY...STANLEY...JONES AND LYMAN COUNTIES. STILL                      
SOMEWHAT OF A CONCERN AS TO WHETHER SURFACE DEWPOINTS WILL SHOW A               
SUBSTANTIVE DROP LATER THIS AFTERNOON AS THOSE 90 DEGREE                        
TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO BE REALIZED...RESULTING IN LOWER RELATIVE                 
HUMIDITIES THAN ARE CURRENTLY BEING FORECAST /NAMELY...RH VALUES IN             
THE LOWER 20S INSTEAD OF THE LOWER 30S/. NO RED FLAG WARNINGS AT                
THIS TIME...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE NEED FOR ONE.                      
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION...                                                             
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.                                       
ALL MODELS IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT ON THE 500HPA RIDGE MOVING OVER               
THE REGION TODAY FOR THE BEGINNING OF WHAT APPEARS TO BE AN                     
EXTENDED HOT AND DRY PERIOD FOR THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THUS...NOT                 
MUCH TO TALK ABOUT THIS MORNING.                                                
A SURFACE HIGH REMAINS OVER THE GREAT LAKES TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY                
MORNING BEFORE MIGRATING TO THE EAST...WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS                     
BETWEEN THE HIGH AND A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH TO THE WEST HELPING TO               
BRING HOT AND MORE HUMID AIR BACK TO THE REGION THROUGH THE                     
WEEKEND. THE 00Z NAM CONTINUES TO SHOW MOISTURE STREAMING                       
NORTHWARD TONIGHT THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING ON THE HEELS OF WARM                 
AIR ADVECTION...WITH THE GFS NOW IN BETTER AGREEMENT...AND THUS                 
INCREASED CLOUD COVER IN THE SOUTHERN/EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE CWA               
FROM TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY AS THIS MOISTURE HANGS AROUND THE                 
FAR EAST THROUGHOUT THE DAY ON SATURDAY.                                        
OTHERWISE...CURRENT WARMING TREND STILL LOOKS GOOD...THOUGH RAISED              
HIGHS JUST A TAD ON SUNDAY AS 500HPA HEIGHTS RISE TO 594 TO 596 DECAMETERS      
AND 850MB TEMPERATURES SOAR TO 24C TO 31C BY EARLY SUNDAY EVENING.              
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INCREASE HIGHS AS WELL. ONLY CONCERN WITH                 
THIS SEEMS TO BE THAT MODEL INDICATIONS CONTINUE TO POINT TO DEW                
POINTS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S AND SOUTH/SOUTHEAST                        
WINDS...NOT THE GREATEST SETUP FOR VERY HOT CONDITIONS...BUT WITH               
VERY WARM AIR ALOFT EVEN FOR LATE JULY...DO NOT NECESSARILY NEED                
THE IDEAL SETUP TO GET NEAR 100 TO 105 IN MANY AREAS ACROSS THE                 
CWA...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR. SHOULD FORECAST PAN OUT AS                  
CURRENTLY INDICATED...HEAT INDICES WILL REACH TO NEAR 105 OR A                  
LITTLE HIGHER ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA DURING PEAK HEATING ON                     
SUNDAY. HOWEVER...DEW POINTS COULD FALL A BIT IN THE AFTERNOON AS               
TEMPERATURES WARM.                                                              
.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING                                   
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO DEPICT A STRONG WESTERN RIDGE WITH              
A CLOSED HIGH OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. HIGH H5 HEIGHTS WILL                    
EQUATE TO A HOT AND STAGNANT PATTERN. CONTINUED TEMPERATURE GRIDS               
PUSHING 100 DEGREE MARK FOR LARGE PARTS OF CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA.                
ALSO NIGHT TIME TEMPERATURES WILL STAY WARM AS WELL. LITTLE CHANCE              
OF RAIN WITH THIS PATTERN.                                                      
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUE ACROSS THE               
AREA...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE                   
PERIOD.                                                                         
&&                                                                              
.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
SD...NONE.                                                                      
MN...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
UPDATE...DORN                                                                   
SHORT TERM...ECKSTEIN                                                           
LONG TERM...KEEFE                                                               
AVIATION...GIONTA                                                               
</pre> sd                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX                                   
900 PM CDT FRI JUL 20 2007                                                      
.DISCUSSION...SATELLITE AND RADAR IMAGES INDICATE MOST OF THE                   
CONVECTION HAS SHIFTED WESTWARD ACROSS SOUTHWEST TEXAS AND THE                  
RIO GRANDE PLAINS THIS EVENING. 500MB PRESSURE HEIGHTS HAVE                     
RISEN ACROSS THE CWA AND THIS APPEARS TO BE KEEPING A LID                       
ON CONVECTION DEVELOPING ACROSS THE AREA FOR NOW. THE 18Z GFS                   
AND NAM MODEL RUNS PROG SOME DRIER AIR FILTERING INTO SOUTHEAST                 
TX SATURDAY. NOT WILLING TO AGREE WITH THESE LATEST MODEL RUNS AS               
OF YET BUT BELIEVE RAIN CHANCES MAY NOT BE AS WIDESPREAD TOMORROW               
AS THEY HAVE BEEN THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS. PRECIPITABLE WATER                   
VALUES REMAIN NEAR 2 INCHES ACROSS THE AREA AND RUC80 1000-500MB                
WIND STREAMLINE ANALYSIS INDICATED THAT MOISTURE OVER THE WESTERN               
GULF OF MEXICO CONTINUES TO ADVECT NORTHWARD INTO SOUTH TX.                     
ALSO...LCH/CRP 00Z SOUNDINGS INDICATE AN UNSTABLE AIRMASS PERSISTS              
ACROSS THE AREA WITH LITTLE OR NO CAP. WILL GO AHEAD AND LOWER                  
POPS TONIGHT FOR NOW. 32                                                        
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 730 PM CDT FRI JUL 20 2007/                         
AVIATION...                                                                     
WITH CONTINUED ONSHORE CONVERGENCE AT THE LOWER LEVELS AND                      
WIDESPREAD SURFACE PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES GREATER THAN 2.0                   
INCHES...HAVE ELECTED TO FOLLOW PERSISTENCE WITH THIS TAF PACKAGE.              
INLAND TAF SITES WILL EXPERIENCE PATCHY MVFR CIG CONDITIONS DURING              
EARLY MORNING HOURS (FOG/STRATUS)...FOLLOWED BY WIDESPEAD MVFR                  
CONDITIONS AFTER 10-12Z (SH/TSRA). THE ATMOSPHERE WILL STABILIZE                
SOMEWHAT AFTER 18Z...SO MOST SITES WILL BE VFR IN THE AFTERNOON                 
WITH VCSH CONDITIONS.                                                           
THE 18Z MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A WESTWARD MOVEMENT OF THE SURFACE              
RIDGE THAT WOULD CAUSE CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE SOONER THAN REFLECTED              
THE THE TAFS. I DECIDED NOT TO JUMP ON THE MODEL BAND WAGON WITH                
ONLY ONE RUN.  IF OBSERVED DATA AND THE 00Z MODEL RUN CONTINUE TO               
FALL IN LINE WITH 18Z MODEL RUNS...THE 06Z TAF PACKAGE MAY REFLECT              
THESE IMPROVING CONDITIONS.   44                                                
 PREV DISCUSSION.../ISSUED 219 PM CDT FRI JUL 20 2007/                          
CONVECTION HAS DIMINISHED OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF HOURS AS AIRMASS              
AS STABILIZED IN THE WAKE OF THE EARLY MORNING MCS. WILL KEEP 30                
POPS GOING THROUGH THE EVENING...GIVEN THE POSSIBLE REDEVELOPMENT               
OF SCATTERED -SHRA AS THE CONVECTIVE TEMP IS REACHED. HEAVIER                   
STORMS EXPECTED TO FORM OVER THE WATERS AGAIN AFTER MIDNIGHT AS                 
WEAK LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE DEVELOPS. THIS ACTIVITY COULD AFFECT                 
AREAS MAINLY SOUTH OF I-10 BEGINNING LATE TONIGHT.                              
MODELS SHOW LITTLE CHANGE FOR SATURDAY WITH PWS OF 2.0-2.2                      
INCHES...SIGNIFICANT DIFLUENCE AT 300 MB...NO CAPPING...AND                     
CONVECTIVE TEMPS IN THE MID 80S. NUMEROUS STORMS EXPECTED AGAIN                 
WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND MINOR FLOODING.              
EXACT TIMING OF THE RAIN SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN. IF THE BULK OF THE                 
CONVECTION OCCURS IN THE MORNING THEN THE ATMOSPHERE COULD                      
STABILIZE LEAVING THE CWA MOSTLY DRY IN THE AFTERNOON (SIMILAR TO               
TODAY). WILL MENTION POSSIBILITY OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN FOR                      
SATURDAY IN THE HWOHGX.                                                         
MODELS INDICATE A VERY MODEST DRYING TREND BEGINNING ON                         
SUNDAY/MONDAY...WITH PWS DROPPING TO 1.7-1.9 INCHES. DESPITE                    
THIS...THE ATMOSPHERE WILL REMAIN UNCAPPED WITH CONVECTIVE TEMPS                
IN THE MID 80S. GFS SHOWS THE WEAK BACKDOOR FRONT STALLING OVER                 
EXTREME EAST TX SUNDAY/MONDAY...POSSIBLY SERVING AS AN ADDED FOCUS              
FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. FOR NOW...HAVE KEPT POPS AT 40 PCT                  
BOTH DAYS. HAVE DISCOUNTED THE OUTLIER SOLUTION OF THE 12Z NAM                  
WHICH SHOWS THE FRONT CROSSING THE CWA...AND SHARPLY LOWER PWS ON               
MONDAY. ALL THE MODELS SHOW DRYING TAKING PLACE ON TUESDAY...WITH               
PWS DROPPING TO AROUND 1.5 INCHES. STILL EXPECT SCATTERED TSRA TO               
DEVELOP TUESDAY...BUT COVERAGE SHOULD BE LOWER THAN PREVIOUS DAYS.              
WILL FCST ONLY 30 POPS TUESDAY...THE MOST OPTIMISTIC PART OF THE                
ENTIRE FORECAST.                                                                
ALL THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS SHOW ANOTHER WEAK 500 MB TROUGH                     
SETTING UP ACROSS TEXAS BEGINNING WEDNESDAY...WITH THE LATEST GFS               
SHOWING ANOTHER SURGE OF 2 INCH PWS ARRIVING THURSDAY. MODELS HAVE              
BEEN CONSISTENT WITH THIS SCENARIO WHICH WOULD BRING A RETURN OF                
MORE WIDESPREAD CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT LATE NEXT WEEK INTO THE                  
FOLLOWING WEEKEND.                                                              
35                                                                              
MARINE...                                                                       
OUTFLOW WINDS FROM DECAYING CONVECTION HAS RESULTED IN VARIABLE WINDS           
OVER NEARSHORE WATERS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. ONSHORE FLOW EXPECTED TO            
PREVAIL AGAIN THIS EVENING BECOMING 10 TO 15 KNOTS TOWARD MORNING.              
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS PROBABLY WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE LATE               
TONIGHT AND THEN DECREASING BY MID DAY SATURDAY. WINDS BECOMING                 
LIGHT LATE IN THE WEEKEND WITH WEAKENING PRESSURE GRADIENT.  37                 
CLIMATE...                                                                      
HOUSTON IAH HAS RECEIVED 1.12 INCHES OF RAIN TODAY WHICH BRINGS                 
THE JULY RAINFALL TOTAL UP TO 8.11 INCHES. AS A RESULT...JULY                   
2007 NOW RANKS AS THE THE 9TH WETTEST JULY ON RECORD FOR HOUSTON.               
HOUSTON HAS SEEN MEASURABLE RAIN 14 DAYS THIS MONTH...AND 28 OUT                
OF THE LAST 37 DAYS. COLLEGE STATION AND GALVESTON ARE NOT IN THE               
TOP 10 RANKING YET.                                                             
THE UNUSUALLY MILD TEMPERATURES DESERVE A MENTION AS WELL. THE                  
NORMAL HIGH FOR TODAY IN HOUSTON IS 94 DEGREES. TYPICALLY HOUSTON               
HAS 90+ TEMPERATURES NEARLY EVERY DAY IN JULY...MID 90S FOR NEARLY              
HALF THE MONTH...AND EVEN A FEW DAYS IN THE UPPER 90S TO NEAR 100               
DEGREES. IAH HAS RECORDED A 90+ DEGREE TEMPERATURE ONLY 8 DAYS SO               
FAR THIS MONTH...AND THE HIGHEST HAS BEEN ONLY 96 DEGREES.                      
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      72  87  73  90  72 /  10  60  30  40  20             
HOUSTON (IAH)              73  88  74  90  73 /  20  60  30  40  20             
GALVESTON (GLS)            77  87  78  87  78 /  20  60  20  30  20             
&&                                                                              
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
TX...NONE.                                                                      
GM...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
DISCUSSION...32                                                                 
AVIATION/MARINE...44                                                            
</pre> tx                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX                                         
940 AM CDT FRI JUL 20 2007                                                      
.DISCUSSION...THE HVY RAIN THREAT HAS SHIFTED FURTHER NORTHEAST                 
ACROSS THE UPPER TX COASTLINE THIS MORNING WITH ONLY SOME PATCHY                
LIGHT SHOWERS MOVING OVER ZAPATA COUNTY AT THE MOMENT.  THE AIRMASS             
OVER DEEP SOUTH TEXAS REMAINS PRETTY MOIST AND UNSTABLE WITH THE 12Z            
BRO SOUNDING SHOWING A PWAT OF 2.14 INCHES AND A CAPE OF 5175 J/KG.             
ALTHOUGH MOST OF THE BRO CWA IS PCPN FREE THIS MORNING...DAYTIME                
HEATING WILL LIKELY HELP REDEVELOP MORE SCT CONV LATER THIS                     
AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING. MAV POP GUIDANCE IS MORE WET VERSUS THE             
MET NUMBERS. BUT IT APPEARS THAT THE GFS IS NOT INTIALIZING WELL ON             
THIS MORNINGS CONV OVER TX.  THE NAM AND RUC GUIDANCE ALSO APPEAR TO            
SUFFER FROM INITIALIZATION/FEEDBACK PROBLEMS IN SHOWING WIDEPREAD               
CONV FURTHER WEST OVER SOUTH CENTRAL TX.  SO WILL DEVIATE FROM ALL              
OF THE SHORT RANGE MODEL QPF FIELDS AND WILL REFLECT A MORE                     
DIURNALLY DRIVEN POP/QPF FIELD FOR LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.            
SO HAVE MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO THE EXISTING GRID POP AND TEMP                 
FIELDS.                                                                         
&&                                                                              
.MARINE...BUOY020 REPORTED SSE WINDS AROUND 15 KTS AND SEAS AT 4                
FT. A HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO               
MAINTAINING LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS TODAY. A            
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN THROUGH THE             
WEEKEND WITH HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS IN THE VICINITY OF ANY                       
CONVECTION. HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS TO THE WESTERN GULF OVER THE                   
WEEKEND WITH LIGHT WINDS AND SEAS THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.              
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...FG CREATING MVFR VIS AND IFR CIGS FG ACROSS MUCH OF NRN             
AND WRN ZONES THIS AM. VFR CONDITIONS WITH MID AND HI CIGS WILL                 
PREVAIL BY 16Z WITH TEMPO MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS AS SCT SHRA/TSRA               
DEVELOP AND MOVE INLAND.                                                        
&&                                                                              
.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                        
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON OUR INTERNET WEB PAGE AT:                     
HTTP://WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/BRO                                                     
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...60                                                             
MARINE/AVIATION...55                                                            
MESO...ABBOTT                                                                   
</pre> tx                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX                                         
800 PM CDT THU JUL 19 2007                                                      
.DISCUSSION...LAPS CAPE GUIDANCE SHOWS SOME DECENT INSTABILITY ALONG            
THE LOWER RGV AND DOWN SOUTH OVER NORTHEAST MEXICO WITH AROUND 1600             
TO 2400 J/KG ALONG AND NORTH OF THE RIVER AND 2400 TO 3400 SOUTH OF             
THE RIVER OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NORTHEAST MEXICO. THIS IS                  
RESULTING IN ONLY SOME ISOLD TO SCT CONV PERSISTING MAINLY TO THE               
WEST AND SOUTH OF THE BRO CWA THIS EVENING WITH THE HELP OF THE LATE            
AFTER HEATING AND THE TROPICAL AIRMASS WHICH THE 00Z BRO SOUNDING               
REPORTING A MOIST PWAT AROUND 2.25 INCHES.  THE RUC AND NAM SHORT               
TERM GUIDANCE TONIGHT KEEP MINIMAL TO NIL PVA MOVING OVER THE BRO               
CWA WITH THE BROAD INVERTED 500 MB TROUGH AXIS POSITIONED TO OUR                
WEST.  THE GFS KEEPS A FAIRLY STRONG POCKET OF VORTICITY MOVING UP              
NORTH JUST WEST OF THE BRO CWA AND THIS WILL LIKELY KEEP THE CURRENT            
CONV CONCENTRATED NEAR OR JUST WEST OF OUR FORECAST AREA.  SO WILL              
ALLOW THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH TO EXPIRE AT 8 PM THIS EVENING.                     
HOWEVER...WILL MAINTAIN THE MENTION OF SOME CONV CHCS OVERNIGHT FOR             
ANY DEVELOPMENT THAT MOVES AWAY FROM NORTHEAST MEXICO.  OTHERWISE...            
THE NAM AND GFS MODELS CONTINUE TO DIMINISH THE POPS ACROSS DEEP                
SOUTH TEXAS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WHICH WILL ALLOW THE                   
SATURATED HYDRO CONDITIONS TO SLOWLY IMPROVE. SO WILL UPDATE THE                
CURRENT ZFP TO REMOVE THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH HEADLINE. NO OTHER                  
CHANGES NEEDED AT THIS TIME.                                                    
&&                                                                              
.MARINE...AT 7PM BUOY 42020 REPORTED EAST WINDS AT 8 KNOTS AND 4-               
FOOT SEAS WITH A PERIOD OF 7 SECONDS.  HIGH PRESSURE TO THE EAST AND            
LOW PRESSURE TO THE WEST OF THE AREA IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN A BIT              
OF A PRESSURE GRADIENT AND CONTINUE LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHEAST                 
WINDS INTO THE WEEKEND.  WAVEWATCH III MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES SEAS            
WILL STAY NEAR PRESENT LEVELS DURING THIS TIME FRAME.  AS HIGH                  
PRESSURE BEGINS TO DOMINATE EARLY NEXT WEEK...A DECREASING PRESSURE             
GRADIENT WILL ALLOW WINDS TO WEAKEN.  SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO FALL TO              
AROUND 2 FEET BY MIDWEEK.                                                       
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE             
OVERNIGHT.  SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE                
AGAIN ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON ALONG WITH SOUTHEAST WINDS UP TO AROUND 15            
KNOTS.                                                                          
&&                                                                              
.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                        
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON OUR INTERNET WEB PAGE AT:                     
HTTP://WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/BRO                                                     
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS....60                                                            
MARINE/AVIATION...68                                                            
MESO...MARTINEZ                                                                 
</pre> tx                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPOKANE WA                                             
415 AM PDT THU JUL 19 2007                                                      
.SYNOPSIS...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT EASTERN                       
WASHINGTON AND NORTHERN IDAHO THIS MORNING AS A COLD FRONT MOVES                
THROUGH THE REGION. MORE SETTLED WEATHER WILL RETURN TO THE REGION              
TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE INLAND NORTHWEST.                      
&&                                                                              
UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION AND INCREASED MORNING POPS FOR NE WA                
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
THE THREAT OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IS RAPIDLY DIMINISHING THIS                  
MORNING. 10Z RUC ANALYSIS SHOWS THE COMPUTED CAPE FOR PARCELS LIFTED            
FROM THE 800-700MB LAYER IS MOVING EAST INTO MONTANA. STRONGER                  
STORMS IN LATAH...BENEWAH...KOOTENAI...AND BOUNDARY COUNTIES BETWEEN            
7-8Z WERE CLOSELY TIED TO THE MID LEVEL INSTABILITY AXIS. NOW THAT              
THE UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS OVER WESTERN WASHINGTON IS BECOMING                    
SEPARATED FROM THE BETTER INSTABILITY...A GENERAL DECREASE IN                   
THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE IS EXPECTED. THE POST FRONTAL PRECIPITATION               
BAND IN EASTERN WASHINGTON SHOULD REMAIN INTACT THROUGH 15-18Z                  
HOWEVER. A LAST MINUTE UPDATE TO INCREASE PRECIPITATION AND QPF WAS             
ADDED TO THE FORECAST FOR THE SPOKANE AND COLVILLE AREAS. GKOCH                 
ISSUED 250 AM...                                                                
TODAY AND TONIGHT...A STRONG BAROCLINIC ZONE IN THE MID LEVELS                  
OVER EASTERN WASHINGTON AND EASTERN OREGON HAS PRODUCED A BAND OF               
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDING FROM AROUND BAKER CITY TO THE               
CANADIAN BORDER. STORMS IN THE WARM SECTOR OVER THE PANHANDLE HAVE              
EXHIBITED STRONG TO SEVERE SIGNATURES ON THE RADAR BETWEEN 08Z AND              
0930Z. REFLECTIVITIES BETWEEN 50-60DBZ TO 25KFT SUGGESTED THE                   
POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL...BUT GIVEN THE TIME OF NIGHT...GROUND                 
TRUTH HAS BEEN HARD TO COME BY. SMALL BOWING SEGMENTS HAVE BEEN                 
RACING TO THE NORTH BETWEEN 60-70MPH. PROLONGED DAMAGING WINDS                  
HAVE PROBABLY NOT SURFACED GIVEN THE WAINING LOW LEVEL                          
INSTABILITY...BUT IT HAS BEEN HARD TO IGNORE STORMS MOVING THAT                 
FAST. ANY WIND THAT WOULD SURFACE FROM A STORM MOVING 65MPH WOULD               
LIKELY CAUSE DAMAGE.                                                            
THE MAIN UPPER LOW WILL TRAVERSE THROUGH WESTERN WASHINGTON                     
BETWEEN 12Z AND 20Z. THE COLD FRONT THAT HAS BEEN HUNG OVER                     
EASTERN WASHINGTON WILL ACCELERATE EASTWARD BY LATE IN THE MORNING              
AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES NORTH. THE BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND                   
THUNDERSTORMS THIS MORNING WILL BE EAST OF A LINE FROM MOSES LAKE               
TO REPUBLIC...ROUGHLY ALONG THE 700MB FRONT. BY THE                             
AFTERNOON...THE BEST Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE                   
UPPER TROUGH WILL BE FOCUSED INTO CANADA. COLD AIR ALOFT WILL HAVE              
THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE SOME WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND                      
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE EAST SLOPES FROM                 
WENATCHEE TO OMAK. POINTS SOUTH AND EAST WILL LIKELY BE TOO STABLE              
FOR AFTERNOON CONVECTION. /GKOCH                                                
FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...ALTHOUGH MODELS ARE IN GENERAL                 
AGREEMENT WITH REGARD TO THE SYNOPTIC EVOLUTION THROUGH THE                     
PERIOD AS WELL AS PLACEMENT AND GENERAL TIMING OF CLOUD COVER AND               
QPF...GLOBAL GUIDANCE STILL SEEMS TO BE HAVING SOME DIFFICULTY                  
WITH THE VERTICAL THERMAL STRUCTURE UNDER ANY POTENTIAL CLOUD                   
LAYERS THROUGH THE PERIOD...MOST SPECIFICALLY FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.              
WITH THE GFS BEING A COLD OUTLIER EARLY IN THE PERIOD...THE NAM                 
AND ECMWF HAVE CLUSTERED FAIRLY STRONGLY TO BE WARMER THAN THE                  
GFS. DUE TO A SLIGHTLY SLOWER FORWARD TRANSLATION SPEED WITH UPPER              
DIVERGENCE AND UPPER RH/CLOUD FIELDS...THE NAM AND ECMWF ALLOW FOR              
MORE SIGNIFICANT DIURNAL RISES IN TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE EASTERN               
CWA FRIDAY AS A SYSTEM GLANCES THE NORTHWESTERN CWA. AS IT DOES                 
SO...BETTER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE              
CENTERED FROM THE CASCADES THROUGH THE OKANOGAN HIGHLANDS AS A                  
PRETTY DECENT Q-CONVERGENCE MAXIMUM SHIFTS NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS                 
THE WESTERN FLANK OF THE RESIDENT RIDGE TO OUR EAST. WITH                       
INCREASING CLOUDS THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL BE                 
HELD BACK FROM RECENT READINGS.                                                 
BY THE WEEKEND...THE MODELS ARE TENDING TO AMPLIFYING THE PATTERN IN            
PLACE. THIS STILL LEAVES THE BULK OF THE CWA IN A PRECARIOUS                    
POSITION FOR THE FORECAST. WHILE IT SEEMS COOLER AIR WILL                       
INFILTRATE THE WESTERN CWA AS EVIDENCED BY SIGNIFICANTLY LOWER 850              
MB TEMPERATURES ALONG THE CASCADES AND OKANOGAN VALLEY AREAS...850              
MB TEMPERATURES SOAR INTO THE MID 20S OVER THE EASTERN CWA PER THE              
GFS AND ECMWF. AS A RESULT...THE MOST SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE                
FORECAST WERE GENERALLY TO LOWER TEMPERATURES FROM RITZVILLE                    
WESTWARD...WHILE LEAVING THE TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE EASTERN CWA                
LARGELY ALONE. /FRIES                                                           
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE THE PREVAILING CATEGORY OVER EASTERN                     
WASHINGTON AND NORTHERN IDAHO THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY. SOME TEMPORARY                
MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES ARE POSSIBLE IN THE SPOKANE AND COEUR            
D`ALENE AREAS THROUGH 17Z IN THE HEART OF A RAIN BAND THAT WILL LIFT            
TO THE NORTHEAST THIS MORNING. THE BAND OF RAIN WITH EMBEDDED                   
THUNDER IS CLOSELY TIED TO A MID LEVEL FRONT. ONCE THE FRONT CLEARS             
THE IDAHO PANHANDLE LATE THIS MORNING...SOME WIDELY SCATTERED                   
CONVECTIVE SHOWERS MAY POP UP AFTER 20Z OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN OF THE            
CASCADES AND NORTHERN MOUNTIANS OF WASHINGTON. /GKOCH                           
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
SPOKANE        79  56  80  57  86  58 /  60  10  10  10  10  10                 
COEUR D`ALENE  81  52  83  54  86  58 /  60  10  10  10  10  10                 
PULLMAN        78  49  83  52  85  54 /  60  10  10  10  10  10                 
LEWISTON       86  60  90  64  94  62 /  60  10  10  10  10  10                 
COLVILLE       76  52  80  53  84  56 /  60  10  20  10  10  10                 
SANDPOINT      79  53  83  54  85  54 /  60  10  10  10  10  10                 
KELLOGG        83  54  86  56  88  57 /  60  10  10  10  10  10                 
MOSES LAKE     84  58  80  58  85  60 /  20  10  10  10  10  10                 
WENATCHEE      82  61  76  61  83  61 /  20  10  20  10  10  10                 
OMAK           81  55  78  58  80  60 /  20  20  20  10  10  10                 
&&                                                                              
.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
ID...NONE.                                                                      
WA...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</pre> wa                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI                                  
255 AM CDT THU JUL 19 2007                                                      
.DISCUSSION...FORECAST FOCUS IS ON QUIET WEATHER TODAY THROUGH MONDAY.          
MODELS ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH SYNOPTIC SITUATION FOR THE               
NEXT SEVERAL DAY. THE COLUMN DRIES OUT TODAY WITH STRONG                        
SUBSIDENCE...AND THESE CONDITIONS PERSIST THROUGH MONDAY. DRY                   
CANADIAN RIDGE GRADUALLY SETTLES OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES                   
REGION.                                                                         
THE ONLY PROBLEM MAY BE SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS EARLY THIS MORNING.               
RADAR LOOPS SHOW ALL ORGANIZED CONVECTION WELL SOUTH OF CWA AT                  
THIS TIME...BUT AN ISOLATED SHOWERS OR TWO CONTINUES TO POP UP AT               
TIMES THEN DISSIPATES. RUC AND LAPS CONTINUE TO SHOW INSTABILITY                
ACROSS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN BUT THERE IS NOTHING TO FOCUS                         
DEVELOPMENT. DEW POINTS ARE SLOWLY LOWERING FROM THE NORTH AND THE              
AIRMASS WILL CONTINUE TO BECOME MORE STABLE. AT THIS TIME...I WILL              
LEAVE RAIN OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR TODAY SUBJECT TO LAST MINUTE                 
CHANGES.                                                                        
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...LOW PRESSURE TO MOVE EAST OF THE AREA THIS MORNING. WEAK            
ONSHORE FLOW HAS BROUGHT DENSE FOG AND LOW CLOUDS TO AREAS NEAR THE             
LAKE...INCLUDING THE KMKE TAF. COULD SEE SOME FOG AT KMSN AS WELL               
THIS MORNING IN WEAK FLOW.  STRONG COLD FRONT TO SWEEP THROUGH THE              
AREA DURING THE MORNING AND SHOULD SCOUR OUT KMKE BY 14Z TO 15Z.                
DRIER CANADIAN AIRMASS TO BRING SCT CLOUDS TO THE AREA DURING THE               
AFTERNOON.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
NONE.                                                                           
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
35/05                                                                           
</pre> wi                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL                                  
300 AM CDT SAT JUL 21 2007                                                      
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
300 AM CDT                                                                      
NOT A WHOLE LOT OF CHANGES IN STORE FOR THIS SET OF ZONES/GRIDS AS              
THE WEATHER SCENARIO HAS NOT CHANGED MUCH...ESPECIALLY OVER THE                 
SHORT TERM.  WITH THE DEEP TROF OUT EAST AND AN AMPLIFIED RIDGE OUT             
WEST...OUR REGION IS CAUGHT IN THE MIDDLE WITH NORTHERLY FLOW                   
FUNNELING DOWN INTO THE LAKES WITH A SFC HIGH PARKED OVER NORTHERN              
LAKE MICHIGAN.  THIS HIGH WILL EVENTUALLY PROPAGATE SOUTHEASTWARD               
THROUGH THE LAKES AND BRING ON A WARMING TREND THROUGH NEXT WEEK AS             
WINDS SHIFT FROM BEING NE/E TO SE/S.  THE H5 RIDGE THEN STARTS TO               
TILT NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST EARLY NEXT WEEK AND            
THIS IS WHERE WE START TO SEE SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES...PUTTING IT               
LIGHTLY.  THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE DEEP MID-LEVEL TROUGH OUT EAST            
CLOSES OFF AND STARTS TO RETROGRADE WESTWARD STARTING ON SUNDAY.                
HOW FAR WEST THE CLOSED LOW GETS IS WHERE THE MODELS START TO                   
DEVIATE.  THE TREND SEEMS TO BE FAVORING THE GFS PROGRESSION WHERE              
THE CLOSED LOW GETS INTO EASTERN OHIO...BUT THEN GETS PICKED UP BY              
THE FLOW AND STAYS CLEAR OF OUR AREA.  THE DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE              
RUNS CAN BE NOTED ON THE ECMWF RUNS ON THE 12Z FROM THE 20TH AND THE            
MORE RECENT 00Z RUN.  THE 12Z RUN HAD THE CLOSED LOW MAKING IT TO               
EASTERN NEBRASKA BY THE END OF THE WEEK...WHILE THE NEW 00Z RUN                 
TRENDS TOWARD THE GFS WITH THE VORT MAX GOING OVER LAKE ERIE AND                
LIFTING NORTH.  THE 00Z NOGAPS AND UKMET ALSO SHOW A SIMILAR                    
SOLUTION WITH THE NAM/DGEX AND CANADIAN BEING OUTLIERS ATTM WITH THE            
NAM/DGEX BRINGING THE TROF THRU MISSOURI AND THE CANADIAN BRINGING              
IT THRU MINNESOTA.  THESE MODELS THAT SHOW THE FURTHER WESTWARD                 
PROPAGATION ALL HAVE LOWER H5 HEIGHTS IN THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...WHICH            
ALLOW FOR THE CLOSED LOW TO PROPAGATE WESTWARD WITH LITTLE FORCE.               
SO...AM GOING ALONG WITH THE GFS/NOGAPS/UKMET/00Z EURO SOLUTIONS AND            
HAVE NOT MADE ANY ADJUSTMENTS TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST AS                       
PREVIOUS THINKING WAS THAT THE CLOSED LOW WOULD ONLY MAKE IT TO                 
INDIANA AND THIS GOES ALONG WELL WITH HPCS GUIDANCE.                            
HALBACH                                                                         
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
FOR THE 0600 UTC TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THIS TAF            
CYCLE. OVERNIGHT LIGHT WINDS MAY HAVE A TENDENCY TO BACK A BIT TO               
LIGHT NW AS INCREASING THERMAL DIFFERENTIAL COULD LEAD TO A WEAK                
LAND BREEZE DEVELOPING TOWARD SUNRISE...HOWEVER VELOCITIES WILL                 
REMAIN LIGHT. WRF/RUC FORECAST SOUNDINGS BOTH SUGGEST THAT 950-900MB            
TEMPS WILL BE 2-3C WARMER THAN THURS MORNING SO THINK THE CHANCES OF            
LAKE EFFECT CLOUDINESS DEVELOPING AGAIN THIS MORNING IS NOT ALL THAT            
GREAT. SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS COULD SPREAD INTO THE AREA LATER               
THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS AS GFS/WRF BOTH SUGGEST SOME              
WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY CRESTING THE HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE AND DROPPING            
SSW INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION...HOWEVER ANY CLOUDINESS WOULD                  
LIKELY REMAIN AOA FL100. WINDS SHOULD TEND TO VEER TO ENE BY LATE               
MORNING AS SYNOPTIC GRADIENT GETS A BIT OF A BOOST FROM THE LAKE                
DURING THE DAY TODAY.                                                           
IZZI                                                                            
&&                                                                              
.MARINE...                                                                      
230 AM CDT                                                                      
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE LAKE WILL EVER SO SLOWLY MIGRATE SE OVER THE             
NEXT FEW DAYS WITH WINDS OVER THE LAKE LARGELY GOVERNED BY DIURNAL              
LAND/SEA BREEZE CIRCULATIONS. WAVES FINALLY SUBSIDING OVER THE SOUTH            
END OF THE LAKE AFTER BEING STIRRED UP BY THE STRONG WINDS THE LAST             
COUPLE DAYS...AND WITH MAINLY LIGHT WINDS OVER THE LAKE LOOK FOR A              
CONTINUATION OF RELATIVELY LITTLE WAVE ACTION THROUGH MID WEEK.                 
IZZI                                                                            
&&                                                                              
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
IL...NONE.                                                                      
IN...NONE.                                                                      
LM...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</pre> il                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL                                  
1227 AM CDT SAT JUL 21 2007                                                     
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
235 PM CDT                                                                      
SOME AFTN CU SUPPLIED BY LAKE MSTR WILL DISSIPATE AT SUNSET TO                  
ANOTHER CLEAR NIGHT. WINDS DROPPING OFF TO L/V OVERNIGHT BUT WILL               
RESIST ANY FOG MENTION. LIKELY TO BE SOME SHALLOW GROUND FOG                    
NEAR DAYBREAK BUT NOT RESTRICTIVE TO MOTORISTS OR MOST AVIATION.                
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BLDG ACROSS THE LAKES TONIGHT AND SAT WILL                 
MAINTAIN NE FLOW OVER AREA AND LIKELY TO SEE SOME SCT CU AGAIN SAT              
WITH DIURNAL HEATING. WEAKER SFC FLOW OFF LAKE SUNDAY ALONG WITH                
VEERING TO EAST TO SE SHUD ALLOW WARMER TEMPS TO NEAR 80. TREND IN              
THE PAST FEW RUNS HAS BEEN TO GRADUALLY WARM UP INTO THE 90S BY MID             
WEEK. HOWEVER LASTEST RUN INDICATING UPR LOW INTENSIFICATION OVER               
MID APPALACHIANS LIKELY TO KEEP COOL NORTH FLOW ALOFT OVER AREA.                
THUS KEEPING SEASONABLE TEMPS IN PLACE EARLY IN WEEK.                           
THIS UPR LOW TAKING A RETROGRADE MOTION WESTWARD ALONG THE UPR OHIO             
VLY MONDAY AND TUESDAY...TO THE LOWER OHIO VLY WEDNESDAY. GFS HAS               
GONE SO FAR AS TO TAKE IT NORTH OF STL THURS INTO SRN IOWA FRIDAY.              
RETROGRESSION SUPPORTED BY NAM AND ECMWF ALTHO TO VARYING DEGREES.              
WOULD PREFER TO CURB THE WESTWARD PROGRESS PERHAPS INTO INDIANA BY              
FRIDAY WHICH WUD CALL FOR INCREASING CLOUD COVER TOWARD THE END OF              
THE WEEK WITH INCREASING CHANCES OF RAIN TO OUR EAST AS MSTR DRAWS              
UP FROM THE GULF. FOR THE MOMENT...AM LEAVING THE LATTER HALF OF THE            
WEEK DRY IN HOPES OF AVOIDING A PROBABLE FLIP-FLOP FORECAST. HAVE               
HOWEVER CURBED HIGH TEMPS A BIT FROM PREVIOUS RUN IN EXTENDED IN                
ANTICIPATION OF INCREASED CLOUD COVER. WILL LOOK AT SITUATION THRU              
THE WEEKEND TO MONITOR RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY. IF CONFIDENCE BECOMES            
MORE CONCRETE ...WILL LIKELY BE PUTTING IN CHANCE POPS IN LATTER                
PERIODS.                                                                        
RLB                                                                             
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
FOR THE 0600 UTC TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THIS TAF            
CYCLE. OVERNIGHT LIGHT WINDS MAY HAVE A TENDENCY TO BACK A BIT TO               
LIGHT NW AS INCREASING THERMAL DIFFERENTIAL COULD LEAD TO A WEAK                
LAND BREEZE DEVELOPING TOWARD SUNRISE...HOWEVER VELOCITIES WILL                 
REMAIN LIGHT. WRF/RUC FORECAST SOUNDINGS BOTH SUGGEST THAT 950-900MB            
TEMPS WILL BE 2-3C WARMER THAN THURS MORNING SO THINK THE CHANCES OF            
LAKE EFFECT CLOUDINESS DEVELOPING AGAIN THIS MORNING IS NOT ALL THAT            
GREAT. SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS COULD SPREAD INTO THE AREA LATER               
THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS AS GFS/WRF BOTH SUGGEST SOME              
WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY CRESTING THE HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE AND DROPPING            
SSW INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION...HOWEVER ANY CLOUDINESS WOULD                  
LIKELY REMAIN AOA FL100. WINDS SHOULD TEND TO VEER TO ENE BY LATE               
MORNING AS SYNOPTIC GRADIENT GETS A BIT OF A BOOST FROM THE LAKE                
DURING THE DAY TODAY.                                                           
IZZI                                                                            
&&                                                                              
.MARINE...                                                                      
240 PM CDT                                                                      
MAIN FEATURE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD WILL BE THE BROAD                      
ANTICYCLONE ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES THAT WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT            
INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES THIS WEEKEND. THE MOVEMENT OF THIS                 
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL ALLOW FOR THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST WINDS             
TO SHIFT TO THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST TOMORROW NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THE              
SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE QUITE WEAK UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF             
THIS HIGH SO WINDS SHOULD BE NO GREATER THAN 10 TO 15 KNOTS THROUGH             
THE WEEKEND. THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL EVENTUALLY REACH NEW               
ENGLAND BY SUNDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE IS COMING              
INTO GENERAL AGREEMENT IN HIGHLIGHTING A RETROGRADING UPPER AIR                 
PATTERN WHICH WOULD ACT TO SHIFT THIS RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BACK               
WESTWARD ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES EARLY NEXT WEEK. AS A                   
RESULT...A PERIOD OF LIGHT SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS IS EXPECTED EARLY              
NEXT WEEK.                                                                      
IN TERMS OF THE NEARSHORE WATERS...WAVE HEIGHTS WILL DIMINISH THIS              
EVENING...ALTHOUGH A FEW MORE HOURS OF WAVES AT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY            
CRITERIA ARE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING. ON SATURDAY...ONSHORE WINDS OF              
AROUND 10 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED.                                                   
MARSILI                                                                         
&&                                                                              
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
IL...NONE.                                                                      
IN...NONE.                                                                      
LM...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</pre> il                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA                                          
305 AM CDT SAT JUL 21 2007                                                      
.SHORT TERM /TODAY/...                                                          
MID LEVEL CLOUDS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS WESTERN IOWA IN RESPONSE TO A            
BAND OF THETA-E ADVECTION. IN THE NEAR TERM...THE NAM IS SPREADING              
SOME SHOWERS INTO THE SOUTHWEST COUNTIES...WHILE THE RUC/GFS KEEP               
ANY PRECIP OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS MORNING. LATEST RADAR            
TRENDS INDICATE A LIGHT SHOWER STARTING TO POP UP IN EXTREME SW IA              
NEAR PLATTSMOUTH AND WL CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR POSSIBLE INCLUSION              
OF POPS TOWARD ISSUANCE TIME. OTHERWISE...FLOW AROUND THE GREAT                 
LAKES HIGH WILL TURN MORE SOUTHEASTERLY TODAY AND TEMPS SHOULD BE A             
FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN YESTERDAY...BUT STILL BELOW NORMAL.                     
LINGERING CLOUDS IN THE WEST MAY TEMPER THE WARMUP THERE DESPITE                
STRONGER SOUTHERLY FLOW.                                                        
.LONG TERM /TONIGHT-FRIDAY/...                                                  
AGAIN...LITTLE CHANGE MADE TO GOING FORECAST. STRONG UPPER LEVEL                
RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE ROCKIES BUT WITH AN AXIS REACHING NORTHEAST             
ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS WILL REMAIN IN THAT POSITION OR MOVE SLIGHTLY             
EAST EARLY IN THE WEEK. MODELS HAVING A HARD TIME PICKING UP ON                 
SHORTWAVES IN CLOCKWISE FLOW AROUND THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE               
RIDGE AND FIGURING OUT WHAT TO DO WITH THEM AS THEY MAKE THE                    
SOUTHWESTWARD TURN OVR THE UPR MS VLY. THERE IS SOME AGREEMENT WITH             
RESPECT TO LOW TO MID LEVEL MOISTURE PLUME CURRENTLY OVR THE CENTRAL            
PLAINS EDGING EASTWARD ANT INTO WRN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL IA BY SUNDAY            
AFTN. HOWEVER...PROGRESS OF THAT PLUME EASTWARD FROM THERE IS                   
QUESTIONABLE AT THIS TIME. SINCE CONFIDENCE IN POP FORECAST IS VERY             
LOW...WILL LEAVE FCST DRY.                                                      
ONE THING MORE CERTAIN IS THAT THE SFC HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVR THE              
GREAT LAKES WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT DRIER AND SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN             
NORMAL AIR FOR MUCH OF CENTRAL IA. THOUGH WRN SECTIONS WILL BE                  
FARTHEST FROM ITS INFLUENCE. AFTER SUNDAY...THE SFC HIGH SHIFTS FAR             
ENOUGH EAST TO ALLOW ADDITIONAL WARMING. LITTLE CHANGE EXPECTED                 
THROUGH THE WEEK AS AIRMASS REMAINS FAIRLY HOMOGENEOUS.                         
SOME SUGGESTION AMONG CANADIAN AND EURO MODELS THAT AN UPPER LEVEL              
CUTOFF LOW WILL OVR THE ERN CONUS EARLY THIS WEEK WILL RETROGRADE               
WESTWARD TOWARD IA. HOWEVER...LATEST ECMWF RUN IS NOW MOVING AWAY               
FROM THAT SCENARIO...TOWARD THE GFS AND GFS ENSEMBLE PREDICTION OF              
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINING ANCHORED OVER OUR REGION.                               
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...21/06Z                                                              
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO KEEP QUIET WX OVER THE AVIATION FORECAST             
POINTS.  ONE SMALL CHANGE W/R/T LOCATIONS OVER FAR WESTERN IOWA AND             
WEST...A WARM FRONT OVER EASTERN NEBRASKA DOES INDICATE SOME WEAK               
LIFT WITH THE FEATURE  AND SOME MID LEVEL CLOUD COVER SEEN IN THAT              
AREA.  AN ISOLATED SHOWER IS QUITE POSSIBLE AFT 09Z IN FAR WRN IA               
AND EASTERN NEB.  VFR COND AND DRY ELSEWHERE.                                   
&&                                                                              
.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                        
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHORT TERM...KINNEY                                                             
LONG TERM...MOYER                                                               
AVIATION...FAB                                                                  
</pre> ia                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS                                             
1149 PM CDT FRI JUL 20 2007                                                     
.AVIATION...                                                                    
FOR THE 06Z TAF SUITE...LITTLE CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS THOUGHTS. GENERALLY         
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE FORECAST VALID PERIOD. ISOLATED               
SHOWERS CONTINUE TO FESTER ACROSS A SMALL PART OF THE FLINT HILLS AND           
SOUTHEAST KANSAS. WILL MAINTAIN VCSH MENTION FOR KCNU. OTHERWISE CHANCES        
EVEN THROUGH SATURDAY WILL REMAIN RATHER LOW IN BOTH TIME AND                   
SPACE...SO HAVE PRECLUDED MENTION IN ALL TAF SITES FOR NOW.                     
KED                                                                             
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 631 PM CDT FRI JUL 20 2007/                         
UPDATE...                                                                       
RUC AND EXTRAPOLATED LAPS DATA SUGGEST A REMOTE CHANCE FOR A FEW                
STORMS AS FAR WEST AS ELLSWORTH TO HUTCH TO GREATER WICHITA UNTIL               
DARK. HOWEVER BETTER CHANCE FOR ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED                    
STORMS TO CONTINUE THIS EVENING FOR THE FLINT HILLS AND SOUTHEAST               
KANSAS.                                                                         
KED                                                                             
AVIATION...                                                                     
FOR THE 00Z TAF SUITE...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST            
VALID TIME...OUTSIDE OF ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION. THE            
KCNU AND KSLN TAF SITES WILL BE MOST IMPACTED...MAINLY THIS                     
EVENING WITH THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.                                         
KED                                                                             
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 248 PM CDT FRI JUL 20 2007/                          
DISCUSSION...                                                                   
FORECAST CHALLENGES ARE PRECIPITATION CHANCES TONIGHT AND                       
TEMPERATURES FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.                                             
TONIGHT:                                                                        
CURRENT VISIBLE SATELLITE SHOWS CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT ACROSS MUCH OF              
KANSAS...AS WELL AS THE REMNANTS OF AN MCV OVER SOUTHWEST KANSAS.               
THE WARM FRONT THAT WAS ACROSS KANSAS YESTERDAY HAS WASHED OUT AND              
THERE ARE REALLY NO INDICATIONS OF A BOUNDARY ANYMORE. TEMPERATURES             
HAVE BEEN ABLE TO CLIMB A COUPLE DEGREES HIGHER THAN WE EXPECTED                
TODAY...BUT WERE STILL A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. A FEW SHOWERS AND            
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPED ALONG AN INSTABILITY AXIS THAT STRETCHES                
ACROSS SOUTHEAST KANSAS...BUT THEY QUICKLY WEAKENED. THIS TREND IS              
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WERE              
TRIMMED BACK TO JUST SOUTHEAST KANSAS OVERNIGHT.                                
SATURDAY-SUNDAY:                                                                
SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW AT THE SURFACE CONTINUES THROUGH THE            
WEEKEND...AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT IS MAINLY FOCUSED INTO SOUTHWEST               
KANSAS. THERE REMAINS SOME WEAK FORCING IN THE MID-LEVELS ACROSS                
SOUTHEAST KANSAS...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW THAT MORE THAN AN ISOLATED             
STORM OR TWO WILL BE ABLE TO DEVELOP.                                           
1000-850MB THICKNESSES SUPPORT AT OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL                      
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEKEND...THEREFORE WE BROUGHT MAXIMUM                 
TEMPERATURES DOWN JUST A BIT TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS AND THE FACT                   
THAT IT HAS BEEN A STRUGGLE TO GET ABOVE THE LOW 90S ACROSS THE                 
FORECAST AREA WITH THE EXCEPTION OF CENTRAL KANSAS THIS SUMMER.                 
MONDAY-THURSDAY:                                                                
UPPER RIDGE IN PLACE DURING THIS TIME...WITH DRY WEATHER EXPECTED.              
THERE ARE SOME HINTS AT SOME WEAK RIPPLES IN THE FLOW...HOWEVER WITH            
TIMING AND TRACK OF THESE IMPULSES SURE TO CHANGE QUITE A BIT IN THE            
NEXT FEW DAYS...OPTED TO KEEP THE FORECAST DRY FOR NOW. 1000-850MB              
THICKNESSES DO NOT SUPPORT MID-90S FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST                     
AREA...RATHER LOW 90S...SO WE LOWERED MAX TEMPERATURES A COUPLE                 
DEGREES TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE STRUGGLE WE HAVE               
HAD THIS YEAR TO MAKE IT ABOVE THE LOW 90S THIS YEAR.                           
SCHRECK                                                                         
AVIATION...FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE                                                 
LATEST RADAR LOOP IS SHOWING SEVERAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS                  
STARTING TO DEVELOP ALONG THE INSTABILITY AXIS STRETCHING FROM                  
CHANUTE TOWARDS SALINA. WE HAVE INTRODUCED A TEMPO TSRA GROUP FOR               
THE CHANUTE TAF THIS AFTERNOON...BUT WE HAVE HELD OFF AT SALINA                 
UNTIL WE SEE A LITTLE MORE EVIDENCE. THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF                   
SITES WILL SEE MAINLY CUMULUS THIS AFTERNOON...BUT YOU CANNOT RULE              
OUT A STORM OR TWO IN THE VICINITY. THIS THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY                  
SHOULD BEGIN TO DIE OFF AFTER SUNSET. WE DID MENTION SOME PATCHY                
BR IN THE CHANUTE TAF TOWARDS SUNRISE SINCE THERE IS A LOT OF LOW               
LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE ALONG WITH SOME DECOUPLING ACCORDING TO                 
THE GFS.                                                                        
COX                                                                             
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
WICHITA-KICT    71  93  70  93 /  10  10  10  10                                
HUTCHINSON      70  93  70  93 /  10  10  10  10                                
NEWTON          70  92  69  93 /  10  10  10  10                                
ELDORADO        69  92  69  92 /  10  10  10  10                                
WINFIELD-KWLD   70  93  70  92 /  10  10  10  10                                
RUSSELL         69  93  70  95 /  10   0  10  10                                
GREAT BEND      69  94  70  94 /  10  10  10  10                                
SALINA          71  92  69  93 /  10  10  10  10                                
MCPHERSON       70  93  69  93 /  10  10  10  10                                
COFFEYVILLE     69  92  68  90 /  10  20  10  10                                
CHANUTE         68  91  67  90 /  10  20  10  10                                
IOLA            68  91  67  90 /  10  10  10  10                                
PARSONS-KPPF    69  92  68  90 /  10  20  10  10                                
&&                                                                              
.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
NONE.                                                                           
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</pre> ks                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
457 AM EDT SAT JUL 21 2007                                                      
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN DEALS WITH PCPN CHCS SUN NIGHT INTO TUE.              
WATER VAPOR LOOP...RUC ANALYSIS AND 00Z RAOB PLOTS SHOW AN AMPLIFIED            
UPR RIDGE BUILDING FROM THE PLAINS INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES.                
AT THE SFC HIGH PRES IS CENTERED OVER ERN UPR MI MAINTAINING CLEAR              
SKIES ACROSS THE REGION EARLY THIS MORNING.                                     
SUNNY SKIES AND MIXING OF 850 MB TEMPS 12-14C WILL ALLOW INLAND                 
HIGHS TO REACH THE UPR 70S AND LOWER 80S TODAY. WEAK PRES GRADIENT              
WITH THE PROXIMITY OF THE SFC HIGH WILL ALLOW FOR LAKE BREEZE                   
CIRCULATIONS TO KEEP TEMPS SLIGHTLY COOLER NEAR THE GREAT LAKES                 
SHORELINES.                                                                     
AS THE SFC HIGH SLIDES INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES...A BIT STRONGER              
SW FLOW WILL DEVELOP BEHIND IT OVER UPR MI TONIGHT. EXPECT THE                  
LOWEST TEMPS (AROUND 50F) OVER THE INTERIOR SCNTRL AND E COUNTIES               
CLOSER TO WEAKER PRES GRADIENT AND LOWER PWAT AIR ASSOCIATED WITH HI            
PRES CENTER.                                                                    
LOOK FOR A MOSUNNY AND WARMER DAY ON SUN WITH ANTICYCLONIC SW FLOW              
AROUND HI PRES OVER LAKE HURON. H85 TEMPS FCST TO RISE TO                       
14C-16C...AND MIXING AOA 800 MB ON GFS FCST SDNGS SUPPORTS HI TEMPS             
PUSHING APPROACHING 85F OVER MUCH OF W AND CENTRAL UPR MI.                      
MODERATION DOWNSTREAM OF LAKE MI WILL KEEP TEMPS A FEW DEGREES                  
COOLER THERE.                                                                   
MODELS STILL PERSIST ON BRINGING STRONG 850 MB THETA-E ADVECTION AND            
HIGHER PWATS (> 1.5 INCHES) INTO WRN COUNTIES SUN NIGHT INTO MON                
AHEAD OF SHRTWV LOBE RIDING OVER TOP OF PLAINS RDG. KEPT GOING                  
SLIGHT CHC POPS FOR THE WRN COUNTIES SUN NIGHT AND THEN SPREAD                  
SLIGHT CHC POPS INTO CENTRAL AND ERN COUNTIES ON MON AS HIGHER                  
PWAT/THETA-E AIR ADVANCE E.                                                     
00Z GFS/NAM AND CANADIAN MODELS ALL SEEM TO SUGGEST HIGHER                      
PWAT/THETA-E AIR AND SFC BOUNDARY WILL LINGER INTO TUE WITH CUT-OFF             
LOW DRIFTING WWD INTO THE OH VALLEY/LWR GRT LKS. THUS...HAVE                    
EXTENDED THE SLIGHT CHC POP FOR MON NIGHT INTO TUE EVENING ACROSS               
THE ENTIRE CWFA.                                                                
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION (FOR THE 06Z TAF ISSUANCE)...                                         
MID LEVEL WAA/ISENTROPIC LIFT IS EXPECTED TO SUPPORT SOME MID/HIGH              
CLOUDS. WITH DRY SFC-700 MB LAYER IN PLACE ASSOCIATED WITH A SURFACE            
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES...VFR CONDITIONS WILL                
PREVAIL THROUGH SATURDAY.                                                       
&&                                                                              
.MARINE (FOR 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)...                           
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES WILL BUILD ACROSS THE                  
REST OF THE GREAT LAKES TODAY. LOW PRESSURE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS                
NORTHERN ONTARIO LATE SUN INTO SUN NIGHT MAY TEMPORARILY INCREASE               
PRESSURE GRADIENT ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR S WINDS TO INCREASE ABOVE 20              
KT ON EASTERN SECTIONS OF LK SUPERIOR. RELAXING GRADIENT ON MON                 
WILL RESULT IN SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS LESS THAN 20 KT THROUGH THE             
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.                                                            
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
PUBLIC...VOSS                                                                   
AVIATION/MARINE ...JLA                                                          
</pre> mi                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE                                            
402 AM CDT SAT JUL 21 2007                                                      
.DISCUSSION...PAST EVENING UPPER AIR DATA ALONG WITH EARLY MORNING              
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW A LARGE RIDGE SITTING ACROSS              
THE CENTRAL CONUS.  SEVERAL SMALL BUT POTENT WAVES CAN BE SEEN                  
ROTATING AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THIS RIDGE.  LATEST SURFACE                    
ANALYSIS SHOWS A STATIONARY FRONT STRETCHING FROM SOUTHEAST KANSAS              
INTO WESTERN NEBRASKA.  RUC ANALYSIS DATA SHOWS MODEST 850MB THETA-E            
ADVECTION EAST OF THE SURFACE FRONT WHICH CONTINUES TO TRIGGER SOME             
WEAK ISOLATED CONVECTION ACROSS EASTERN KS INTO WESTERN IA.                     
A HOT AND GENERALLY DRY PATTERN WILL TAKE HOLD OF THE REGION TODAY              
INTO TONIGHT AS THE UPPER RIDGE REMAINS IN CONTROL OF THE AREA.  THIS           
WILL ALLOW THE AFOREMENTIONED STATIONARY FRONT TO CONTINUE LIFTING              
SLOWLY NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION TODAY.  ALTHOUGH LOW LEVEL                   
FORCING ALONG THIS BOUNDARY WILL BE WEAK AT BEST...CAPE VALUES OF               
1500-2000 J/KG ALONG WITH WEAK CAPPING COULD TRIGGER A FEW SHOWERS              
EAST OF A HEBRON TO BELOIT LINE THIS AFTERNOON TO EARLY EVENING.                
OTHERWISE...LOOK FOR STRATUS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE REGION THIS                 
MORNING TO SLOWLY GIVE WAY TO A MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKY AS            
TEMPERATURES CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 80S TO MID 90S.                               
SUNDAY IS THEN SHAPING UP TO BE ANOTHER HOT AND GENERALLY DRY DAY               
ACROSS THE AREA ALTHOUGH THE UPPER RIDGE IS SHOWN TO BEGIN                      
RETROGRADING BACK INTO THE ROCKIES AND INTERMOUNTAIN WEST DURING                
THIS TIME FRAME.  ALTHOUGH BETTER LOW LEVEL FORCING ON SUNDAY WILL              
REMAIN ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS CLOSER TO THE LEE TROUGH...A SMALL BUT            
POTENT WAVE SLIDING SOUTH ALONG THE FRONT SIDE OF THE UPPER RIDGE               
MAY TRIGGER SOME ISOLATED CONVECTION.  BEST CHANCE FOR THIS                     
CONVECTION LOOKS TO BE EAST OF A YORK TO BELOIT LINE.  WILL AIM FOR             
AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S.                                        
AS THE REGION HEADS INTO MONDAY THE UPPER RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD BACK            
INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS WHILE A POSITIVELY TITLED UPPER TROUGH OVER            
THE EASTERN CONUS BEGINS TO BACK INTO THE LOWER TO MID MS RIVER                 
VALLEY.  THIS WILL KEEP THE FORECAST AREA ON THE UNSETTLED EASTERN              
EDGE OF THE UPPER RIDGE.  AS WAS THE CASE ON SUNDAY...IT APPEARS                
ANOTHER WAVE RIDING ALONG THE FRONT SIDE OF THE RIDGE COULD TRIGGER             
SOME ISOLATED CONVECTION EAST OF A YORK TO BELOIT LINE.  AFTERNOON              
TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO BE SIMILAR WITH HIGHS VARYING FROM THE LOWER             
TO MID 90S.                                                                     
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...CONCERN WITH THIS TAF IS DEVELOPING STRATUS AND FOG.                
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING STRATUS AREA TO THE NW OF OUR CWA IS                  
EXPANDING SE. SHOULD END UP MVFR AND POSSIBLY IFR BEFORE SUNRISE.               
STILL HAVE GOOD TURBULENT MIXING IN LOWER LEVELS SO WHILE VSBYS                 
MAY DROP TO 4 OR 5 MILES...DON`T THINK WE WILL GO LOWER. ALL THIS               
WILL BE SLOW TO MIX OUT AFTER SUNRISE DUE TO HIGH AMOUNT OF LOW                 
LEVEL MOISTURE.                                                                 
&&                                                                              
.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
NE...NONE.                                                                      
KS...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</pre> ne                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE                                        
344 AM CDT SAT JUL 21 2007                                                      
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE REGION...HOWEVER LOW                
LEVEL MOISTURE MAKING FOR A DIFFICULT FORECAST. MAIN CONCERNS LEAN              
ON LOW CLOUDS AND TEMPERATURES.                                                 
WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGE REALLY NOT GOING ANYWHERE THROUGH THE                    
FORECAST PERIOD...THE SURFACE CONDITIONS ARE THE MAIN PLAYER.                   
SOUTHEAST WINDS HAVE USHERED EVEN MORE MOISTURE OVERNIGHT WITH DEW              
PTS HOVERING CLOSE TO THE 70 DEGREE MARK. WINDS HAVE KEPT UP NEAR               
10 KTS THUS TEMPS NOT FALLING NOR IS FOG BELOW 4SM BEEN ABLE TO                 
FORM. STRATUS HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS MOST OF THE EASTERN HALF OF                  
FA...PER SAT. EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE THROUGH THE MORNING.                         
THEN COMES THE QUESTION OF HOW LONG WILL STRATUS STICK AROUND AND               
WHAT EFFECT THE HIGH SURF MOISTURE PLAYS ON ATMOSPHERE TO WARM.                 
FOR SEVERAL DAYS NOW GUIDANCE HAS BEEN TOO WARM. SUSPECT THE                    
GUIDANCE IS FOLLOWING SEVERAL YEARS OF DROUGHT CONDITIONS AND                   
ALLOWING FOR MORE SURFACE HEATING THAT IS POSSIBLE WITH ALL THE                 
SURF MOISTURE. THUS WILL CONTINUE TO GO TOWARDS THE LOWER GUIDANCE              
VALUES. EXCEPTION WILL BE ACROSS NW FA WHERE DRIER CONDITIONS                   
EXIST AND CLOSER TO WARMER GUIDANCE.                                            
WEAK TROF ALONG THE FRONT RANGE AND UPSLOPE FLOW TO LIKELY                      
CONTINUE TO FIRE STORMS TO OUR WEST. NAM SUGGEST A SLIGHT EASTWARD              
SHIFT OF THE TROF INTO THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE LATE IN THE DAY                   
TOMORROW. WITH HIGH MOISTURE AND HIGH TEMPS...INSTABILITY IS                    
GREAT...HOWEVER SO IS THE CAP AS TEMPS WARM ALOFT. WENT AHEAD AND               
ADDED LOW POPS...SLIGHT CHANCE...ACROSS NW ZONES. SHEAR IS WEAK SO              
NOT EXPECTING MUCH...IF ANY...ACTIVITY TO GET GOING TO BE VERY                  
STRONG.                                                                         
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK CONTINUES TO SEE ABOVE TEMPS WITH LITTLE                  
CHANCE FOR MOISTURE. TEMPS ALOFT TO KEEP A DECENT CAP...HOWEVER LL              
MOISTURE COULD SEE SOME SPOTTY CU FIELDS.                                       
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
AVIATION FORECASTS REMAIN CHALLENGING. CURRENT STRATUS TRENDS ARE               
NOT IN AGREEMENT WITH 12KM NAM BLYR RH FCSTS. PREVAILING MVFR WITH              
LOCALLY IFR CIGS ARE EXPANDING ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN HALF OF                  
FORECAST AREA WHILE TAF SITE KVTN NOW ON WRN EDGE OF MVFR CIGS. KLBF            
NO LONGER NEAR STRATUS AND ANY IFR CIGS AND HAVE UPDATED SITE FOR               
ONLY TEMPO 4SM BR TIL 14Z.  11-3.9 MICRO SATELLITE IMAGERY AND RUC40            
300-310K THETA SFC SUPPORT NORTHEASTWARD MOVEMENT OF STRATUS LEAVING            
KLBF FREE OF STRATUS RETURN THIS AM. THUS HAVE UPDATED KLBF TO                  
REMOVE CIGS. ALONG TWEB ROUTE 098...MVFR CIGS WILL PREVAIL FROM                 
NEAR KVTN TO 20 SE OF KONL TIL 14Z...THEN LIFT AND SCATTER OUT AFTER            
16Z. REMINDER OF TWEB ROUTE TO KOFK WILL SEE MVFR CIGS TIL 16Z DUE              
TO EASTWARD EXPANSION WHILE SEGMENT WEST TO KCDR WILL REMAIN UNDER              
VFR TODAY. TWEB ROUTES 264 AND 274 TO REMAIN UNDER VFR CONDITIONS.              
CONTINUED MONITORING OF SATELLITE IMAGERY AND TAF UPDATES FOR KVTN              
AND PORTIONS OF TWEB ROUTE 098 REMAIN LIKELY IF TREND CONTINUES.                
&&                                                                              
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
NONE.                                                                           
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
MASEK/KAR                                                                       
</pre> ne                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL                                           
955 AM EDT SAT JUL 21 2007                                                      
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
MAIN FRONTAL BAND STILL BACK ACROSS SRN GA BUT A PREFRONTAL TROF                
DRIFTING SOUTHWARD THROUGH C FL THIS MORNING. WESTERLY FLOW REGIME              
THROUGH LOWER/MID LEVELS WILL MEAN WEST COAST BOUNDARY SHOULD                   
PENETRATE ACROSS THE PENINSULA. LOW LEVEL FLOW ON MORNING SOUNDINGS             
DOES NOT LOOK STRONG ENOUGH INHIBIT EAST COAST BOUNDARY ALTOGETHER              
BUT WILL ACT TO DELAY ONSET AND HOLD IT CLOSER TO THE EAST COAST.               
AMPLE MOISTURE COMBINING WITH THE LOW LEVEL BOUNDARIES AND                      
ENHANCEMENT FROM DEEPENING MID/UPPER TROF THAT IS PROPELLING VORT               
ENERGY SOUTHWARD INTO THE PENINSULA...STORM COVERAGE WILL BE HIGH               
THIS AFTERNOON. MORNING SOUNDINGS IN C FL CAME IN COOLER THAN MODELS            
HAVE BEEN SUGGESTING WITH -9C/-10C AT CAPE AND TBW RESPECTIVELY.                
PLAN TO NUDGE SEVERE POTENTIAL UP IN LATE MORNING HWO/GHWO ISSUANCE             
WITH HAIL AND DAMAGING DOWNBURST WINDS AS PRIMARY THREAT. LATEST                
WATER VAPOR IMAGES AND RUC DATA INDICATING SOME NVA WORKING OVER THE            
AREA WHICH COULD HELP DELAY CONVECTION A LITTLE BUT SHOULD BECOME               
QUITE ACTIVE HEADING TOWARD THE LATE AFTERNOON AND INTO TONIGHT WITH            
INFLUENCE OF VORT ENERGY. DAYTIME STORM COVERAGE MAY BE A BIT HIGHER            
AND EARLIER OVER SOUTHERN SECTIONS WITH SURFACE BOUNDARY AND HOLD               
OFF A LITTLE LATER IN THE NORTH. WILL MAKE A FEW TWEAKS TO                      
ZONES/GRIDS AND HWO AS TRENDS INDICATE.                                         
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...WILL MONITOR CU DEVELOPMENT AND STORM INITIATION TO                 
REFINE TIMING FOR GREATEST CHANCE OF STORMS IN TAFS THIS AFTERNOON              
AND TONIGHT. DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND HAIL POSSIBLE IN STRONGER                  
STORMS.                                                                         
&&                                                                              
.MARINE...OFFSHORE FLOW AOB 15 KT TODAY/TONIGHT EXPECTED TO BACK TO             
S/SSE ALONG THE COAST THIS AFTERNOON AS SEA BREEZE DEVELOPS. SEAS               
1-2 FEET NEAR SHORE AND UP TO 3 FEET OFFSHORE. SCATTERED-NUMEROUS               
SHOWERS/STORMS WILL MOVE OFFSHORE...ESPECIALLY LATE AFTERNOON AND               
TONIGHT...SOME WITH GUSTS OVER 35 KT...HAIL AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING.             
&&                                                                              
.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
FL...NONE.                                                                      
AM...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
GLITTO                                                                          
</pre> fl                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC                                          
1033 AM EDT SAT JUL 21 2007                                                     
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL PUSH THROUGH THE AREA TODAY AND THEN                    
LINGER OVER NORTHERN FLORIDA THROUGH SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL                 
BUILD OVER THE REGION IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT AND PERSIST INTO                 
EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER FLORIDA WILL THEN LIFT               
BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT BY MID WEEK. A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE                  
ALONG THE FRONT WILL KEEP HIGHER THAN NORMAL RAIN CHANCES OVER THE              
AREA THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.                                               
&&                                                                              
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...                                         
A CDFNT ALONG THE SAVANNAH RIVER WILL CONTINUE TO MAKE STEADY                   
PROGRESS ACROSS SE GA THIS MRNG AND SHOULD CLR THE ALTAMAHA RIVER               
BY MID-LTE AFTN. NO SIGNIFICANT CAA IS NOTED BEHIND THE FNT BUT                 
TEMPS ARE BEING TEMPERED DUE TO EXTENSIVE MID-HIGH LVL CLOUDINESS.              
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES SHOULD GIVE WAY TO SOME CLR DURING THE AFTN                 
BASED ON THE LATEST RUC FCST SOUNDINGS. THE LATEST VSBL SATL DOES               
ALREADY SHOWS SOME BREAKS FROM ALLENDALE COUNTY E THROUGH CNTRL                 
COLLETON COUNTY WHICH IS YIELDING SOME FILTERED SUNSHINE. STILL                 
XPCT TEMPS TO RISE INTO THE UPR 80S TO AROUND 90 ACROSS INLAND                  
AREAS BUT A MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW WL LIMIT TEMPS TO THE LWR 80S                 
ALONG THE COAST.                                                                
THE BEST CHANCES FOR TSTMS WL GENERALLY REMAIN W AND S OF THE                   
I-16/95 CORRIDORS INTO ERLY EVNG. MODIFIED SOUNDINGS YIELD                      
SBCAPES 2000-2500 J/KG WITH LI/S OF -5 BY ERLY AFTN IN THIS AREA.               
A WEAK RESULTANT SEA BREEZE ALONG THE N GA COAST MAY ALSO ADD                   
ADDITIONAL LOW-LVL CONVG. PLAN TO MAINTAIN OUR CURRENT 20/30 POP                
REGIME THROUGH ERLY EVNG WITH THE HIGHEST GRIDDED POPS CONFINED TO              
SE GA. THERE WL BE ENOUGH LOW-LVL MOISTURE AND RESIDUAL INSTABILITY             
BEHIND THE FNT TO SUPPORT AT LEAST A SLGT CHANCE FOR A SHOWER OR                
TSTM ACROSS SE SC THUS SLGT CHANCE POPS WL BE MAINTAINED THERE.                 
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...                         
NOT MUCH CHANGE IN THE OVERALL PATTERN THROUGH TONIGHT.                         
ALTHOUGH...WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AND THE SEA BREEZE...                   
WILL KEEP A DRY FORECAST OUTSIDE OF ANY LINGERING EVENING SHOWERS               
AND THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS WILL DIP INTO THE UPPER 60S INLAND WITH                 
LOWER 70S NEAR THE COAST...ALTHOUGH CANNOT RULE OUT MID 60S IN                  
SOME INLAND LOCALES.                                                            
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA ON SUNDAY.                  
SURFACE DEWPOINTS STILL LOOK MARGINAL FOR WIDESPREAD CONVECTIVE                 
DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE SEA BREEZE. HOWEVER WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION              
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SE                 
GA WHERE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE A BIT HIGHER. HIGH                          
TEMPERATURES SUNDAY WILL REACH THE LOWER 90S AWAY FROM THE COAST.               
AFTER LINGERING EVENING SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS...SUNDAY NIGHT WILL               
BE DRY WITH LOWS IN THE MID/UPPER 60S INLAND AND LOWER 70S NEAR                 
THE COAST. INTERESTINGLY...THE RECORD LOWS FOR CHARLESTON /60                   
DEGREES SET IN 1966/ AND SAVANNAH /61 DEGREES SET IN 1966/ APPEAR               
TO BE SAFE...ALTHOUGH WE MAY GET WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF THE                    
RECORD LOW OF 69 DEGREES SET IN 1966 IN DOWNTOWN CHARLESTON.                    
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...                                           
A CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE POSITIONED OVER THE            
OHIO VALLEY ON MONDAY...WHILE AT THE SURFACE A NORTHEAST FLOW ACROSS            
THE AREA WILL SLOWLY VEER ONSHORE AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO SHIFT              
OFFSHORE WELL NORTH OF THE AREA. ISOLATED CONVECTION IS EXPECTED                
ACROSS MOST AREAS MONDAY...ALTHOUGH THE COVERAGE SHOULD BE SCATTERED            
ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHEAST GEORGIA WHERE GREATER MOISTURE POOLING AND            
SURFACE CONVERGENCE IS EXPECTED DUE TO THE PROXIMITY OF A STALLED               
FRONTAL BOUNDARY SOUTH OF THE AREA.                                             
A WARM FRONT WILL BEGIN TO LIFT ACROSS THE AREA ON TUESDAY IN                   
RESPONSE TO THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE                 
FARTHER OFFSHORE NORTH OF THE AREA. ALONG THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF              
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH A STRONG 250 MB JET WILL DEVELOP FOR THIS                
TIME OF YEAR...AND THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE LOCATED IN THE                     
FAVORABLE FRONT ENTRANCE REGION. GIVEN THESE FACTORS ALONG WITH A               
DEEP ONSHORE FLOW...TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR              
AT LEAST SCATTERED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. THERE IS ALSO              
THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG OR EVEN SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP AS             
DEWPOINTS RECOVER INTO THE LOWER 70S...CAPE VALUES APPROACH 1500                
J/KG AND WIND SHEAR STRENGTHENS DUE TO THE PROXIMITY OF THE LIFTING             
FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND JETTING ALOFT.                                             
WEDNESDAY ALSO APPEARS FAVORABLE FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND                      
THUNDERSTORMS AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLS NEAR OF JUST WEST OF               
THE FORECAST AREA. MEANWHILE...WEAK CHANNELED VORTICITY ALOFT WILL              
BE IN PLACE ALONG THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH               
AIDING IN LIFT ACROSS THE AREA.                                                 
AS IF THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WAS NOT UNUSUAL             
ENOUGH FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...THE UPPER LEVEL LOW IS FORECAST TO               
MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS AND OVER THE DEEP SOUTH             
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE COULD DEVELOP ALONG THE             
EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE TROUGH AND TRACK NORTHEAST ALONG THE                   
STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY DURING THIS TIME. AS A RESULT...SCATTERED              
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED EACH AFTERNOON AND                       
EVENING...AIDED BY THE SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY.                                     
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TROUGH THE LONG TERM               
PERIOD.                                                                         
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION /14Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...                                   
A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA THIS              
MORNING...THEN SHIFT SOUTH OF THE AREA LATER THIS AFTERNOON AS                  
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS DOWN FROM THE NORTH. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE                    
POOLING SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY HAS RESULTED IN SOME LOW STRATUS                  
WHICH MAY RESULT IN IFR OR EVEN LIFR CEILINGS AT KSAV THROUGH                   
1300. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE                          
ACCOMPANYING THE FRONT AND HAVE INCLUDED VICINITY SHOWERS IN THE                
KCHS TAF THROUGH 1400 UNTIL THE FRONT CLEARS THE TERMINAL. THE                  
FRONT SHOULD MOVE ACROSS KSAV FROM AROUND 1400-1600. SHOWERS AND                
THUNDERSTORMS WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE LATER TODAY ALONG AND AHEAD                
OF THE SEA BREEZE WHICH SHOULD MOVE THROUGH THE TERMINALS LATE IN               
THE AFTERNOON. THE COVERAGE ON THE STORMS SHOULD BE ISOLATED IN                 
THE KCHS VICINITY BUT SCATTERED IN THE KSAV VICINITY DUE TO THE                 
PROXIMITY OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY...SO WILL KEEP MENTION OF CB THERE.           
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...VFR CONDITIONS GENERALLY EXPECTED.                  
HOWEVER...MVFR OR IFR CEILINGS ARE POSSIBLE IN ISOLATED OR                      
SCATTERED AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH                   
WEDNESDAY.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
.MARINE...                                                                      
A PINCHED GRADIENT HAS DVLPD OFF THE CHARLESTON COUNTY COAST IN THE             
WAKE OF THE CDFNT. SUSPECT WNDS ARE GENERALLY 15-20 KT IN THIS                  
AREA BASED ON OBSERVATIONS FROM FBIS1. FARTHER S LGT WNDS ARE                   
OCCURRING WITH SPEEDS GENERALLY 10-15 KT. THE FNT WL CONTINUE TO                
SAG S THROUGH THE GA WTRS THIS AFTN BACKING WNDS TO THE NE AS IT                
DOES. WNDS WL LIKELY BECOME MORE ELY ALONG THE GA COAST AS A WEAK               
RESULTANT DVLPS AND MOVES INLAND. WL UPDATE THE MARINE FCST                     
SHORTLY TO SHOW HIGHER WNDS N OF EDISTO BEACH BUT KEEP CONDITIONS               
BELOW SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION THRESHOLDS. SEAS WILL                 
BUILD TODAY...POSSIBLY REACHING SCSEC CRITERIA OVER THE OUTER GA                
WATERS AS EARLY AS EARLY SUN. AN EASTERLY SWELL WILL BE NOTICEABLE              
DUE TO THE PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW.                                             
ONSHORE WINDS ARE EXPECTED MONDAY AND TUESDAY ACROSS THE COASTAL                
WATERS AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS OFFSHORE WELL NORTH OF THE REGION. A             
WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE AREA LATE TUESDAY...ALLOWING              
THE FLOW TO SHIFT MORE TO THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST INTO THE MIDDLE OF                
THE WEEK. WIND SPEEDS SHOULD GENERALLY REMAIN AROUND 15 KT OR LESS              
WITH SEAS RANGING 2-4 FT MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.                              
&&                                                                              
.FIRE WEATHER...                                                                
WE CONTINUE TO SUPPORT ONGOING WILDFIRE ACTIVITIES ON WASSAW                    
ISLAND...FLORHAMMOCK ISLAND AND BULLS ISLAND. NO FIRE WEATHER                   
PARAMETERS ARE XPCTD TO DROP BELOW CRITICAL THRESHOLDS ALTHOUGH                 
GUSTY WNDS AT BULLS ISLAND WILL PERSIST FOR A FEW MORE HRS.                     
&&                                                                              
.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
GA...NONE.                                                                      
SC...NONE.                                                                      
MARINE...NONE.                                                                  
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</pre> ga                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL                                             
1040 AM CDT SAT JUL 21 2007                                                     
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
ISSUED 1040 AM CDT SAT JUL 21 2007                                              
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO SLOWLY SETTLE SOUTHWARD OVER LOWER                   
MICHIGAN. AS A RESULT... LIGHT EASTERLY FLOW WILL PREVAIL TODAY.                
SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR ALOFT SHOULD RESULT IN LESS CU DEVELOPMENT THAN              
YESTERDAY... AND NAM/RUC RH FIELDS SUGGEST ANY CU WILL MAINLY BE                
ACROSS EASTERN IOWA... AND ALONG/EAST OF I57 EASTWARD TOWARDS                   
INDIANA AND OHIO.                                                               
WITH LESS CU AND CONTINUED DRY FLOW... SHOULD SEE TEMPERATURES                  
CLIMB ANOTHER 2-3 DEGREES ON YESTERDAYS HIGHS.                                  
CURRENT FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE. NO UPDATES.                                  
HARDIMAN                                                                        
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
ISSUED 623 AM CDT SAT JUL 21 2007...FOR THE 12Z TAFS                            
THE RIDGE AXIS OF CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDS FROM EASTERN                   
WISCONSIN THROUGH CENTRAL ILLINOIS TO ARKANSAS TODAY. LIGHT EAST                
WINDS ARE EXPECTED...WITH SCATTERED CUMULUS DEVELOPING AROUND                   
MIDDAY NEAR 4K FT. NO CLOUD DECKS ARE EXPECTED...NOR ANY                        
RESTRICTIONS TO VISIBILITY OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.                              
SHIMON                                                                          
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION...                                                             
ISSUED 330 AM CDT SAT JUL 21 2007                                               
TRANQUIL CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL ACROSS CENTRAL AND SE ILLINOIS FOR               
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS NEAR IL. NOT MUCH OF             
A FORECAST CHALLENGE WITH MODELS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT INTO EARLY            
NEXT WEEK. EXTENDED MODELS TRENDING WITH BRINGING A WEAK UPPER LEVEL            
LOW WESTWARD TOWARD THE OHIO OR MID MS VALLEY DURING THE MIDDLE OF              
NEXT WEEK... WITH PATCHES OF QPF OVER IL WED AND/OR THU DEPENDING OF            
WHICH MODEL YOU FOLLOW. HPC PREFERRED THE GFS MODEL WHICH IS NOT AS             
FAR WEST WITH BRINGING WEAK UPPER LEVEL LOW AND KEEPS IL DRY THROUGH            
WED.                                                                            
SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...                                      
08Z/3 AM SURFACE MAP SHOWS 1024 MB CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE OVER NE WI            
AND UPPER MI AND RIDGING SOUTHWARD ACROSS WESTERN IL. FRONTAL                   
BOUNDARY EXTENDED FROM CENTRAL GA TO CENTRAL AR AND ARCHED BACK INTO            
CENTRAL KS AND WESTERN NEBRASKA. HIGH PRESSURE WAS PROVIDING FAIR               
SKIES ACROSS IL AND THE MIDWEST. TEMPS OVER CENTRAL/SE IL HAD COOLED            
INTO THE MID TO UPPER 50S WITH DEWPOINTS 50 TO 55F. LIGHT NE TO CALM            
WINDS. OMEGA BLOCK PATTERN AND UNSEASONABLY HIGHLY AMPLIFIED UPPER              
LEVEL PATTERN ALOFT. STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE HIGH PLAINS              
AND STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROFS OVER THE PACIFIC NW AND EASTERN PART               
OF CANADA AND U.S.                                                              
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE TO DRIFT SLOWLY EAST INTO LOW MI BY SUNSET               
WHILE WEAK UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE DIVES SOUTH INTO INDIANA. JUST FEW            
TO SCATTERED CUMULUS CLOUDS OVER MAINLY EASTERN IL BY AFTERNOON...SO            
A SUNNY TO MOSTLY SUNNY AND NICE DAY. MAV WAS TOO WARM YESTERDAY AND            
APPEARS TO BE AGAIN TODAY THOUGH HIGH TEMP GUIDANCE CLOSER TODAY.               
FOLLOWED BLEND OF FWC AND MET HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80F.             
FAIR SKIES TONIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 50S AS CANADIAN HIGH             
PRESSURE STAYS OVER THE GREAT LAKES. HIGH PRESSURE OVER NEW ENGLAND             
SUN/MON AND RIDGING BACK INTO IL AND TO KEEP MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND             
HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S SUN AND MID 80S MON AS AIR MASS SLOWLY                   
MODIFIES. SLOWED WARMING A BIT INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS 850 MB TEMPS             
DO NOT RISE TOO MUCH WITH BLOCKED UPPER LEVEL PATTERN.                          
LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...                                           
WEAK CUTOFF UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT DEVELOPS OVER THE MID ATLANTIC                 
STATES MON APPEARS TO RETROGRADE WESTWARD INTO THE OHIO VALLEY                  
DURING NEXT WORK WEEK PER GFS. TEMPS CONTINUE TO SLOWLY MODIFY WITH             
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90F AS DEWPOINTS ELEVATE THROUGH THE             
60S...SO TO MORE SEASONABLE LEVELS FOR LATE JULY. QUESTION MARK ON              
IF CONVECTION CHANCES POSSIBLE BY WED OR THU. HPC FOLLOWED FURTHER              
EAST GFS MODEL WITH UPPER LEVEL FLOW WHICH WOULD KEEP IL DRY INTO               
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. ECMWF IS MOST AGRESSIVE WITH STRONGER                  
CUTOFF LOW GETTING WEST INTO IL BY 12Z/WED WHILE CANADIAN AND NAM               
EXTRAPOLATED HAS WEAKER UPPER LEVEL LOW IN SOUTHERN IL THEN. IF THIS            
SCENERIO PANS OUT...WILL HAVE BETTER CHANCE OF AFTERNOON/EVENING                
CONVECTION WED AND THU WITH MORE CLOUDS AND A BIT COOLER HIGHS.                 
HUETTL                                                                          
&&                                                                              
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
NONE.                                                                           
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</pre> il                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
745 AM EDT SAT JUL 21 2007                                                      
UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR 12Z TAFS                                        
.DISCUSSION (457 AM EDT)...                                                     
THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN DEALS WITH PCPN CHCS SUN NIGHT INTO TUE.              
WATER VAPOR LOOP...RUC ANALYSIS AND 00Z RAOB PLOTS SHOW AN AMPLIFIED            
UPR RIDGE BUILDING FROM THE PLAINS INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES.                
AT THE SFC HIGH PRES IS CENTERED OVER ERN UPR MI MAINTAINING CLEAR              
SKIES ACROSS THE REGION EARLY THIS MORNING.                                     
SUNNY SKIES AND MIXING OF 850 MB TEMPS 12-14C WILL ALLOW INLAND                 
HIGHS TO REACH THE UPR 70S AND LOWER 80S TODAY. WEAK PRES GRADIENT              
WITH THE PROXIMITY OF THE SFC HIGH WILL ALLOW FOR LAKE BREEZE                   
CIRCULATIONS TO KEEP TEMPS SLIGHTLY COOLER NEAR THE GREAT LAKES                 
SHORELINES.                                                                     
AS THE SFC HIGH SLIDES INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES...A BIT STRONGER              
SW FLOW WILL DEVELOP BEHIND IT OVER UPR MI TONIGHT. EXPECT THE                  
LOWEST TEMPS (AROUND 50F) OVER THE INTERIOR SCNTRL AND E COUNTIES               
CLOSER TO WEAKER PRES GRADIENT AND LOWER PWAT AIR ASSOCIATED WITH HI            
PRES CENTER.                                                                    
LOOK FOR A MOSUNNY AND WARMER DAY ON SUN WITH ANTICYCLONIC SW FLOW              
AROUND HI PRES OVER LAKE HURON. H85 TEMPS FCST TO RISE TO                       
14C-16C...AND MIXING AOA 800 MB ON GFS FCST SDNGS SUPPORTS HI TEMPS             
PUSHING APPROACHING 85F OVER MUCH OF W AND CENTRAL UPR MI.                      
MODERATION DOWNSTREAM OF LAKE MI WILL KEEP TEMPS A FEW DEGREES                  
COOLER THERE.                                                                   
MODELS STILL PERSIST ON BRINGING STRONG 850 MB THETA-E ADVECTION AND            
HIGHER PWATS (> 1.5 INCHES) INTO WRN COUNTIES SUN NIGHT INTO MON                
AHEAD OF SHRTWV LOBE RIDING OVER TOP OF PLAINS RDG. KEPT GOING                  
SLIGHT CHC POPS FOR THE WRN COUNTIES SUN NIGHT AND THEN SPREAD                  
SLIGHT CHC POPS INTO CENTRAL AND ERN COUNTIES ON MON AS HIGHER                  
PWAT/THETA-E AIR ADVANCE E.                                                     
00Z GFS/NAM AND CANADIAN MODELS ALL SEEM TO SUGGEST HIGHER                      
PWAT/THETA-E AIR AND SFC BOUNDARY WILL LINGER INTO TUE WITH CUT-OFF             
LOW DRIFTING WWD INTO THE OH VALLEY/LWR GRT LKS. THUS...HAVE                    
EXTENDED THE SLIGHT CHC POP FOR MON NIGHT INTO TUE EVENING ACROSS               
THE ENTIRE CWFA.                                                                
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION (FOR THE 12Z TAF ISSUANCE)...                                         
SCATTERED...EVEN BROKEN...MID CLOUDS ARE PRESSING SSE OUT OF ONTARIO            
OUT OVR NORTHERN LK SUPERIOR. SATELLITE INDICATES THAT PORTION OF               
THE CLOUDS WILL SKIRT TAF SITES THROUGH MID AFTN. HOWEVER...                    
SUSTANTIAL DRY AND STABLE LAYER SFC-10KFT WILL KEEP BASES WELL ABOVE            
THE VFR/MVFR THRESHOLD OF 3KFT. HIGH PRESSURE IN THE REGION WILL                
ONCE AGAIN PRODUCE LAKE BREEZES THIS AFTN. AS HIGH IS TO THE                    
SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA THIS AFTN EXPECT THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE              
AT KSAW DUE TO THE BREEZE SPREADING IN OFF NORTHERN LK MI.                      
&&                                                                              
.MARINE (FOR 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)...                           
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES WILL BUILD ACROSS THE                  
REST OF THE GREAT LAKES TODAY. LOW PRESSURE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS                
NORTHERN ONTARIO LATE SUN INTO SUN NIGHT MAY TEMPORARILY INCREASE               
PRESSURE GRADIENT ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR S WINDS TO INCREASE ABOVE 20              
KT ON EASTERN SECTIONS OF LK SUPERIOR. RELAXING GRADIENT ON MON                 
WILL RESULT IN SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS LESS THAN 20 KT THROUGH THE             
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.                                                            
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
PUBLIC...VOSS                                                                   
AVIATION/MARINE ...JLA                                                          
</pre> mi                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE                                            
641 AM CDT SAT JUL 21 2007                                                      
.AVIATION...CONCERN THIS CYCLE IS HOW LONG IFR CONDITIONS WILL                  
LAST. FOG CHANNEL ON SATELLITE SHOWS STRATUS AREA HAS CONTINUED TO              
INCREASE IN SIZE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS. NOW STRETCHES ACROSS EAST                
CENTRAL NEB FROM SDAK TO KS BORDERS. MOISTURE CONFINED TO THE LOWER LEVELS      
AND THINK CIGS AND VSBYS SHOULD GRADUALLY IMPROVE THROUGH MID                   
MORNING. WINDS HAVE STAYED UP SO DO NOT EXPECT VSBY TO DROP BELOW               
4 OR 5 MILES.                                                                   
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 402 AM CDT SAT JUL 21 2007/                         
DISCUSSION...PAST EVENING UPPER AIR DATA ALONG WITH EARLY MORNING               
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW A LARGE RIDGE SITTING ACROSS              
THE CENTRAL CONUS.  SEVERAL SMALL BUT POTENT WAVES CAN BE SEEN                  
ROTATING AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THIS RIDGE.  LATEST SURFACE                    
ANALYSIS SHOWS A STATIONARY FRONT STRETCHING FROM SOUTHEAST KANSAS              
INTO WESTERN NEBRASKA.  RUC ANALYSIS DATA SHOWS MODEST 850MB THETA-E            
ADVECTION EAST OF THE SURFACE FRONT WHICH CONTINUES TO TRIGGER SOME             
WEAK ISOLATED CONVECTION ACROSS EASTERN KS INTO WESTERN IA.                     
A HOT AND GENERALLY DRY PATTERN WILL TAKE HOLD OF THE REGION TODAY              
INTO TONIGHT AS THE UPPER RIDGE REMAINS IN CONTROL OF THE AREA.  THIS           
WILL ALLOW THE AFOREMENTIONED STATIONARY FRONT TO CONTINUE LIFTING              
SLOWLY NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION TODAY.  ALTHOUGH LOW LEVEL                   
FORCING ALONG THIS BOUNDARY WILL BE WEAK AT BEST...CAPE VALUES OF               
1500-2000 J/KG ALONG WITH WEAK CAPPING COULD TRIGGER A FEW SHOWERS              
EAST OF A HEBRON TO BELOIT LINE THIS AFTERNOON TO EARLY EVENING.                
OTHERWISE...LOOK FOR STRATUS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE REGION THIS                 
MORNING TO SLOWLY GIVE WAY TO A MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKY AS            
TEMPERATURES CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 80S TO MID 90S.                               
SUNDAY IS THEN SHAPING UP TO BE ANOTHER HOT AND GENERALLY DRY DAY               
ACROSS THE AREA ALTHOUGH THE UPPER RIDGE IS SHOWN TO BEGIN                      
RETROGRADING BACK INTO THE ROCKIES AND INTERMOUNTAIN WEST DURING                
THIS TIME FRAME.  ALTHOUGH BETTER LOW LEVEL FORCING ON SUNDAY WILL              
REMAIN ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS CLOSER TO THE LEE TROUGH...A SMALL BUT            
POTENT WAVE SLIDING SOUTH ALONG THE FRONT SIDE OF THE UPPER RIDGE               
MAY TRIGGER SOME ISOLATED CONVECTION.  BEST CHANCE FOR THIS                     
CONVECTION LOOKS TO BE EAST OF A YORK TO BELOIT LINE.  WILL AIM FOR             
AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S.                                        
AS THE REGION HEADS INTO MONDAY THE UPPER RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD BACK            
INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS WHILE A POSITIVELY TITLED UPPER TROUGH OVER            
THE EASTERN CONUS BEGINS TO BACK INTO THE LOWER TO MID MS RIVER                 
VALLEY.  THIS WILL KEEP THE FORECAST AREA ON THE UNSETTLED EASTERN              
EDGE OF THE UPPER RIDGE.  AS WAS THE CASE ON SUNDAY...IT APPEARS                
ANOTHER WAVE RIDING ALONG THE FRONT SIDE OF THE RIDGE COULD TRIGGER             
SOME ISOLATED CONVECTION EAST OF A YORK TO BELOIT LINE.  AFTERNOON              
TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO BE SIMILAR WITH HIGHS VARYING FROM THE LOWER             
TO MID 90S.                                                                     
&&                                                                              
.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
NE...NONE.                                                                      
KS...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</pre> ne                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC                                          
930 AM EDT SAT JUL 21 2007                                                      
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
A WEAK AND DIFFUSE COLD FRONT MOVING OFF THE CAROLINA COAST WILL BE             
FOLLOWED BY A RELATIVELY COOLER AND DRIER MODIFIED CANADIAN HIGH                
PRESSURE AIR MASS. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL AMPLIFY ACROSS THE                
EASTERN ONE THIRD OF THE U.S. TODAY THROUGH THIS WEEKEND. BERMUDA               
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BECOME REESTABLISHED ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH MID             
TO LATE NEXT WEEK.                                                              
&&                                                                              
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...                                         
MADE A FEW SUBTLE CHANGES TO CLOUD COVER TRENDS OTHERWISE CURRENT               
FORECAST LOOKS GOOD. LATEST RUC CONTINUES TO SHOW A LITTLE ACTIVITY             
ACROSS EXTREME SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF AREA THIS AFTERNOON WITH FRONTAL            
BOUNDARY. CURRENT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS SHOULD SUFFICE.                            
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...                               
CUT OFF LOW DEVELOPS TONIGHT WITHIN DEEP H5 TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTH              
ACROSS EASTERN CONUS. MOST GUIDANCE HAS LOW CENTER MEANDERING OVER              
THE MOUNTAINS OF VIRGINIA THROUGH MONDAY MORNING...THEN LIFTING                 
NORTH OVER WESTERN PA MONDAY NIGHT. NAM IS A BIT OF AN OUTLIER                  
HERE...KEEPING LOW CENTER SIGNIFICANTLY FURTHER TO THE SW. SO...HAVE            
LEANED ON THE GFS FOR THIS PERIOD. AT THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE                 
NOSES IN BRINGING A RELATIVELY COOL NORTH TO NORTHEASTERLY FLOW TO              
THE REGION INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. ALTHOUGH COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL BE               
WEAK...AT LEAST THIS TIME THERE WILL BE SOME COLD AIR ADVECTION. SO             
WILL BE KEEPING TEMPS BELOW CLIMO. TONIGHT AND SUNDAY NIGHT MAY SEE             
MIN TEMPS DROP 10 DEGREES BELOW SEASONAL NORMS.                                 
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...                                     
CHANGES IN THE GFS COMPARED TO YESTERDAY/S RUN IN THE HANDLING OF               
THE UPPER LOW ACROSS THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. THE LATEST RUN                  
INDICATES THE UPPER LOW PERSISTING MUCH FARTHER INTO THE EXTENDED               
PERIOD AND SUBSEQUENTLY THE TREND IN GUIDANCE HAS BEEN FOR COOLER               
MAX READINGS DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK. UNTIL THERE IS                 
BETTER CONTINUITY PLAN TO SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE OLD                  
FORECAST TEMPERATURES AND THE COOLER GUIDANCE. HARD TO PIN DOWN ANY             
SPECIFIC TIME FOR POPS WITH ANY CONFIDENCE...HOWEVER WOULD EXPECT A             
POSSIBILITY FOR MAINLY DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION ESPECIALLY WITH              
COOLER TEMPERATURES ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW.                              
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...                                   
LINGERING SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS ALL BUT MOVED OFF THE COAST THIS                  
MORNING LEAVING VFR CONDITIONS BEHIND. DID HAVE TO USE A TEMPO GROUP            
TO ADDRESS MVFR IN FLO BUT ONLY FOR TWO HOURS. FORECAST DIFFICULTY              
FOR TODAY WILL BE TIMING OF CLEARING. BASICALLY FOLLOWED THE GFS                
700MB RH FIELDS FOR A WEST TO EAST TEMPORAL TREND.                              
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN THROUGH EARLY              
PART OF WEEK. BY MID WEEK WILL SEE INCREASING CHANCE OF AFTERNOON               
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF SHORE AND RETURN           
FLOW OF MOISTER AND MORE UNSTABLE AIR MOVES IN.                                 
&&                                                                              
.MARINE...                                                                      
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6PM THIS EVENING/...                                           
INCREASED WINDS ACROSS NORTHERN ZONES TO AROUND 15 KNOTS AMZ250 AND             
A RANGE OF 15-20 KNOTS ACROSS AMZ252 AS BUOY OBSERVATIONS AND GFS               
ARE SHOWING A SURGE ACROSS THESE AREAS ASSOCIATED WITH 1011MB LOW               
ACROSS THE GULF STREAM. NO OTHER CHANGES.                                       
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...                                    
CAA ASSOCIATED WITH COLD FROPA WILL BE WEAK SO DO NOT EXPECT MUCH               
OF A COLD SURGE AT THE BEGINNING OF THE SHORT TERM. SEAS MAY START              
OUT AS HIGH AS 4 FT AT THE OUTER FRINGES OF OUR WATERS TONIGHT BUT              
THIS WILL NOT LAST AS HIGH PRESSURE NOSES IN AND GRADIENT SLACKENS.             
OVERALL EXPECT SEAS IN THE 2 OR 3 FT RANGE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM.              
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...                                         
THE FLOW WILL GRADUALLY VEER FROM AN E-SE DIRECTION MONDAY TO A                 
SOUTHERLY DIRECTION TUESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE COAST.               
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM              
PERIOD WITH SPEEDS LESS THAN 15 KTS. NOT MUCH CHANGE IN SEAS THROUGH            
THE PERIOD WITH AN AVERAGE OF 3 FT...WHICH LOOKS REASONABLE COMPARED            
TO WNA AND REEFCAST.                                                            
&&                                                                              
.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
SC...NONE.                                                                      
NC...NONE.                                                                      
MARINE...NONE.                                                                  
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SYNOPSIS...RGZ                                                                  
NEAR TERM...15                                                                  
SHORT TERM...REK                                                                
AVIATION...15                                                                   
</pre> nc                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC                              
1101 AM EDT SAT JUL 21 2007                                                     
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
COOL AND LESS HUMID AIR WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE                 
MONDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DEEPEN OVER THE EASTERN PART OF              
THE COUNTRY EARLY NEXT WEEK... KEEPING CONDITIONS UNSETTLED. MOIST              
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITY TO SLOWLY CLIMB             
TOWARD NORMAL SUMMERTIME LEVELS BY FRIDAY.                                      
&&                                                                              
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...                                                 
TWO MAIN CONCERNS FOR THE AFTERNOON ARE HIGHS AND POSSIBILITY OF                
ISOLATED MOUNTAIN CONVECTION. 12Z OBSERVED THICKNESS FROM THE GSO               
RAOBS WARMER THAN EXPECTED. FULL SUN TEMP THERE IS 87 WITH 93 FOR               
FFC. DO NOT EXPECT FULL SUN TODAY AS THERE IS PLENTY OF MOISTURE                
AROUND H8 WITH EASTERLY FLOW AND SUBSIDENCE INVERSION BASE AROUND H7.           
IN FACT...CLOUDS ALREADY DEVELOPING ACROSS MUCH OF WESTERN NC...THE             
UPSTATE AND NE GA. SINCE COOLER AIR MASS IS BUILDING IN AND LESS                
THAN FULL SUN EXPECTED...WILL UNDERCUT THE THICKNESS HIGHS WHICH                
RAISES FORECAST HIGHS A DEGREE OR TWO OVER NC WITH LITTLE CHANGE                
SOUTH.                                                                          
FIRST LOOK AT 12Z NAM SHOWS IT HAS BACKED OFF ON INSTABILITY AND PW             
FORECAST FOR THE AFTERNOON. IT ALSO HAS MUCH LESS CONVECTION IN ITS             
PRECIP FORECAST. 09Z SREF AND 06Z GFS ARE DRY WITH ONLY THE 12Z RUC             
KEEPING HIGHER INSTABILITY AND MORE CONVECTION FOR THE MOUNTAINS.               
EVEN THOUGH SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA AND COOLING MID                  
LEVELS...DEW POINTS ARE LOW ENOUGH AND LOW LEVEL SUBSIDENCE                     
INVERSION WILL BE ENOUGH TO PRECLUDE ONLY THE SMALLEST INSTABILITY.             
THEREFORE...WILL KEEP GOING POP FREE FORECAST.                                  
UPPER TROF CONTINUES TO DIG OVER THE REGION TONIGHT WHILE SURFACE               
HIGH BUILDS FARTHER S OVER AREA. LOWEST LEVELS REMAIN FAIRLY DRY BUT            
H85 TO H7 MOISTURE WILL INCREASE IN E UPSLOPE FLOW AND UVV...SO HAVE            
INCREASED CLOUDS OVERNIGHT...ESP ALONG THE ESCARPMENT. MORNING LOWS             
WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 60S ACROSS FAR S CWA TO UPPER 50S N NC                  
FOOTHILLS/PIEDMONT...WITH UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S MTNS.                            
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...                                          
A BELOW NORMAL MAX TEMP FCST WILL BE MAINTAINED FOR SUNDAY WITHIN               
THE LLVL EASTERLY FLOW. THE LATEST OP GFS/SREF PROGGING VERY SIMILAR            
POSITIONING WITH RESPECT TO UPPER LOW AND WILL TAKE A BLEND OF THE              
RESPONSE OF THESE TWO SOLUTIONS FOR POPS. WILL PLAN ON CENTERING                
CHANCE THUNDER OVER THE SW ESCARPMENT SUNDAY AFTERNOON...WHICH IS               
IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE NEW DAY 2 HPC QPF FCST. FLOW REGIME JUST             
ATOP LIGHT SFC LAYER IS PROGGED TO VEER TO A MORE SOUTHERLY COMPONENT           
SUNDAY NIGHT. WEAK UPSLOPE/UPGLIDE FLOW COULD MAINTAIN A FEW SHOWERS            
INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS OVER THIS SAME AREA. SFC RIDGING OVER THE              
REGION ON MONDAY LOOKS TO BE WEAKENING RESULTING IN A SLIGHT                    
INCREASE IN LLVL RETURN FLOW. THERE WILL CERTAINLY WILL BE LINGERING            
EFFECTS OF RETROGRADING UPPER LOW...BUT IT IS DEBATABLE WHETHER                 
MID-LVL TEMPS WILL BE AS COOL AS SUNDAY. AT ANY RATE...INHERITED                
POP ORIENTATION SEEMS PRETTY GOOD...THUNDER CHANCES MAINLY OVER THE             
WESTERN CWFA. WILL ALSO PLAN ON ROUGHLY PERSISTENCE MAXES...RESULTING           
IN CONTINUED BELOW NORMAL READINGS.                                             
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...                                     
FOR THE TIME BEING ANYWAY...THERE IS PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT BETWEEN              
THE LATEST MEX GUIDANCE AND OUR GOING BELOW NORMAL MAX TEMP FCST                
FOR TUESDAY...AS THE SOUTHERLY FLOW DEEPENS AND INCREASES ACRS                  
THE SOUTHEAST U.S. SOLID CHANCE POPS WILL BE LEFT FOR NOW...BUT                 
WE MAY NEED AN UPWARD ADJUSTMENT LATER THIS MORNING. THE SAME CAN               
SAID FOR WEDNESDAY...ANOTHER BELOW NORMAL MAX TEMP FCST WITH                    
LINGERING SOUTHERLY FLOW AS UPPER TROUGH AXIS IS STILL OFF TO OUR               
WEST. WILL LEAVE THE GOING TREND OF DRIFTING BACK TOWARD MORE                   
TYPICAL LATE JULY WARMTH AND HUMIDITY AS IS WITH DAILY TSTM CHANCES             
AS IS.                                                                          
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION /15Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...                                   
LOW LEVEL DRYING WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT WITH SCT LOW TO MID CLOUDS             
AND OCNL BKN CIRRUS. WINDS WILL CONITNUE FROM THE N-NE AND MIXING               
SHOULD PRECLUDE ANY RESTRICTIONS TO VISIBILITY.                                 
AVIATION OUTLOOK...INCREASINGLY MOIST EASTERLY FLOW WILL LEAD TO                
MORE CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE LATE DAY CONVECTION SUNDAY THROUGH MID                 
WEEK. ALSO EXPECT AN INCREASING CHANCE OF MORNING FOG.                          
&&                                                                              
.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
GA...NONE.                                                                      
NC...NONE.                                                                      
SC...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SYNOPSIS...RB                                                                   
NEAR TERM...RB/RWH                                                              
SHORT TERM...CSH                                                                
LONG TERM...ARK/CSH                                                             
AVIATION...RB                                                                   
</pre> sc                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD                                            
1053 AM CDT SAT JUL 21 2007                                                     
.UPDATE...                                                                      
UPDATED THE FORECAST THIS MORNING BASED OFF LATEST RUC AND NAM                  
SOLUTIONS TO INCREASE MAX T VALUES ACROSS THE WESTERN THIRD OF                  
ZONES GIVEN 850HPA THERMAL PROGS TO +29C TO +31C NOTED OUT                      
THERE...WITH 925HPA THERMAL PROGS OF +34C TO +37C ACROSS THE FAR                
WESTERN ZONES DURING PEAK HEATING TODAY. ALSO ADJUSTED DEWPOINT                 
GRIDS BASED OFF CURRENT CONDITIONS AND 12Z NAM SURFACE DEWPOINTS.               
THIS RESULTS IN HEAT INDICES OF 103 TO 106 THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS                
THE WESTERN THIRD OF ZONES...BUT NOT QUITE LONG ENOUGH TO SATISFY               
LENGTH OF TIME REQUIREMENT FOR A HEAT ADVISORY. SO...WILL REFRAIN               
FROM ISSUING ONE AT THIS TIME. RELATIVE HUMIDITIES ARE ALSO NOW                 
FORECASTED TO DIP DOWN TO AROUND 25 TO 30 PERCENT ACROSS                        
JONES/STANLEY COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON ON 15 TO 25 MPH SOUTHERLY                 
WINDS WITH HIGHER GUSTS. UPDATED THIS MORNING TO INCREASE WIND                  
SPEED FORECAST TO BREEZY CATEGORY ACROSS ENTIRE FORECAST AREA. PROLLY           
WILL UPDATE RANGELAND FIRE DANGER PRODUCT TO BUMP JONES/STANLEY                 
COUNTIES TO EXTREME FIRE DANGER FOR THIS AFTERNOON.                             
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION...                                                             
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT                                        
THE PRIMARY CHALLENGES IN THE SHORT TERM ARE                                    
PRECIPITATION AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES AND TEMPERATURES. MODELS HAVE            
BEGUN HOLDING BACK ON PUSHING THE CENTER OF THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH                
INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS...KEEPING IT SOMEWHAT TO THE WEST AND                  
SOUTH THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THUS...THE GFS/NAM/CANADIAN ARE IN                     
GENERAL AGREEMENT IN BRINGING A SERIES OF WAVES AROUND THE TOP OF               
THE RIDGE INTO NORTH DAKOTA AND MINNESOTA EACH OF THE NEXT THREE                
NIGHTS...THOUGH PLACEMENT AND STRENGTH DIFFERS BETWEEN EACH MODEL.              
TONIGHT...A SHORTWAVE MOVES NORTH TO HUDSON BAY...WITH A SURFACE                
TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE DAKOTAS. THE 00Z GFS                     
GENERATES SOME CONVECTION WITH THIS TROUGH IN NORTH DAKOTA AND                  
MINNESOTA AS IR DEVELOPS A SECONDARY SHORTWAVE NEAR THE                         
INTERNATIONAL BORDER...WITH AIR ALOFT IS NOT AS WARM THERE AS IN                
SOUTH DAKOTA. THE 00Z/06Z NAM RUNS...ON THE OTHER HAND...MOVE ENERGY            
FROM NORTHWEST WYOMING THIS MORNING AND OVER THE TOP OF THE RIDGE               
JUST INTO CANADA AND THEN DIVES IT SOUTHEAST STRAIGHT THROUGH                   
EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA...GENERATING THUNDERSTORMS IN NORTH DAKOTA                 
BEFORE MOVING THEM SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH MOST OF OUR CWA TONIGHT.               
WITH NOT MUCH SEEN ON SATELLITE IMAGES IN NORTHWEST WYOMING...HAVE              
KEPT THE AREA DRY FOR NOW...BUT THAT MAY HAVE TO BE LOOKED AT                   
LATER TODAY IN FUTURE MODEL RUNS.                                               
OTHERWISE...THERE IS GENERAL AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE GFS/ECMWF/UKMET IN           
HANGING THE SURFACE TROUGH/FRONT UP IN NORTH DAKOTA AND NORTHERN                
MINNESOTA AND MOVING A COUPLE WAVES AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE                 
RIDGE SUNDAY AND MONDAY NIGHTS...POTENTIALLY AFFECTING MOSTLY OUR               
FAR EASTERN CWA. FOR NOW...LEFT POPS JUST UNDER SLIGHT CHANCE                   
CATEGORY...BUT THIS MAY ALSO NEED TO BE REVISITED. THE STORM                    
PREDICTION CENTER HAS PLACED SOME OR ALL OF THE AREA IN SEE TEXT                
REGIONS WITH FIVE PERCENT PROBABILITIES OF SEVERE WEATHER FOR DAYS              
ONE THROUGH THREE.                                                              
AS FOR CLOUD COVER...SOME BLOW OFF CLOUDS FROM EARLIER CONVECTION               
IN EASTERN WYOMING HAVE MOVED INTO THE WESTERN CWA...AND EXPECT                 
THESE TO GRADUALLY DISSIPATE AS THEY MOVE EASTWARD TODAY.                       
HOWEVER...MOISTURE RETURN FROM THE SOUTH TODAY LOOKS TO INCREASE                
CLOUD COVER OVER A GOOD PART OF THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN CWA                    
TODAY...AND HIGH CLOUDS FROM ANY THUNDERSTORMS IN NORTH DAKOTA                  
TONIGHT MAY MOVE INTO THE AREA AS WELL.                                         
FINALLY...REGARDING TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS...AFOREMENTIONED                
CLOUD COVER APPEARS TO HOLD HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY DOWN A BIT                  
FROM PREVIOUSLY INDICATED...ESPECIALLY IN THE EAST. ALSO...850HPA               
TEMPERATURES ARE NOT SEEN AS HIGH AS PREVIOUSLY INDICATED...RISING              
TO NEAR 20 EAST TO THE UPPER 20S WEST THIS AFTERNOON.                           
THUS...LOWERED HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON A NOTCH. MODELS STILL AGREE ON              
STRONG MOISTURE RETURN TODAY ACROSS THE AREA WITH DEW POINTS                    
CLIMBING TO THE UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70 ACROSS MOST AREAS BY LATE                  
THIS AFTERNOON. THESE MORE HUMID CONDITIONS WILL SURELY KEEP LOW                
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT FROM FALLING MUCH BELOW 70.                                
ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY...THE RIDGE CENTERED TO THE WEST KEEPS 850HPA              
TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 20S BOTH DAYS ACROSS              
THE CWA. THIS COMBINED WITH DEW POINTS NEAR 70 TO POTENTIALLY A BIT             
HIGHER AND SOUTHERLY WINDS...SUGGEST THAT MOST OF THE AREA MAY                  
STRUGGLE TO SEE PREVIOUSLY INDICATED HIGHS. THE NAM BRINGS THE                  
FRONTAL BOUNDARY TONIGHT SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE NORTHERN CWA BY                  
SUNDAY...KEEPING TEMPERATURES A BIT COOLER THAN OTHER MODELS...BUT              
THAT IS LIKELY A REFLECTION OF THE SHORTWAVE IT MOVES SOUTHEASTWARD             
THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT...AND WITH DIFFERENCES FROM OTHER                      
MODELS...HAVE GENERALLY DISREGARDED IT THIS MORNING...THOUGH THE                
06Z RUN HAS JUST ARRIVED WITH THE SAME GENERAL IDEA AS THE 00Z RUN.             
REGARDLESS...LOWERED HIGH TEMPERATURES BOTH SUNDAY AND MONDAY                   
ABOUT FIVE DEGREES MOSTLY ACROSS THE EASTERN CWA DUE TO THE HUMID               
CONDITIONS. IT IS INTERESTING TO NOTE THAT THOUGH MEX GUIDANCE HAS              
100 FOR KABR ON SUNDAY...AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE RANGES FROM 93 TO                
100...THE ENSEMBLE MEAN IS 94...SUGGESTING THAT MOST MEMBERS ARE                
KEEPING IT LOWER. THE NEW FORECAST TEMPERATURES KEEP HEAT INDICES               
BELOW HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA FOR THE ENTIRE CWA THROUGH MONDAY.                 
.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING                                   
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A LARGE HIGH PRESSURE AREA                 
ALOFT OVER THIS AREA. THIS FEATURE WILL STEER ANY WEATHER AROUND                
THE AREA SO CONTINUED THE DRY FORECAST. TEMPERATURES WILL BE VERY               
WARM WITH GOOD SUNSHINE. DEW POINTS WILL BE HIGH ENOUGH TO ALSO                 
HOLD TEMPERATURES UP AT NIGHT. FEW SUBSTANTIVE CHANGES MADE TO THE              
GOING PACKAGE DURING THIS TIME FRAME.                                           
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
THE SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW AND RESULTING MOISTURE ADVECTION IS                      
RESULTING IN SOME LINGERING AREAS OF MVFR CONDITIONS IN THE                     
EASTERN CWA...WITH SOME CEILINGS RANGING FROM 016 TO 025. THESE                 
AREAS OF LOW CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO SCATTER OUT BY LATE                       
MORNING...CREATING VFR CONDITIONS...WHICH ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN                
THROUGHOUT THE REST OF THE DAY.                                                 
&&                                                                              
.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
SD...NONE.                                                                      
MN...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
UPDATE...DORN                                                                   
SHORT TERM...ECKSTEIN                                                           
LONG TERM...KEARNS                                                              
AVIATION...GIONTA                                                               
</pre> sd                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
315 PM EDT SAT JUL 21 2007                                                      
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
19Z WATER VAPOR LOOP AND RUC 500MB HEIGHT ANALYSIS SHOWED A 594 DAM             
HIGH SITTING OVER KANSAS...WITH RIDGING PUSHED UP INTO WESTERN                  
HUDSON BAY. THIS RIDGE IS IN-BETWEEN A TROUGH BEGINNING TO SPLIT                
INTO TWO FROM QUEBEC INTO THE CAROLINAS AND A TROUGH OVER THE NE                
PACIFIC. ONLY MAIN SHRTWV TO NOTE OF EXTENDS FROM WESTERN                       
SASKATCHEWAN INTO NW MONTANA. VERY WARM AIR EXISTS UNDER AND                    
IMMEDIATELY WEST OF THE RIDGE AXIS...NOTED BY BOTH SURFACE AND 850MB            
TEMPS. RAPID CITY HAD AN 850MB TEMP AT 12Z OF 23C...AND WITH FULL               
SUN AND A DOWNSLOPING WIND...TEMPERATURES THERE HAVE RISEN INTO THE             
LOW 100S. HUMID AIRMASS ALSO EXISTS JUST TO THE EAST OF RAPID                   
CITY...WITH 65-70F DEWPOINTS ADVECTING NORTHWARD ON BREEZY SOUTH                
WINDS UP INTO CENTRAL MANITOBA. 850MB DEWPOINTS AT 12Z WERE 17C AT              
ABR AND OMA. A LINE OF CLOUDS NEAR I-29 DELINATES THIS MOIST AIRMASS            
AND A MUCH DRIER ONE ASSOCIATED WITH HIGH PRESSURE OFF TO THE EAST              
OVER LAKE MICHIGAN. MPX 850MB DEWPOINT AT 12Z WAS -16C.                         
NONETHELESS...THIS DRY AIRMASS HAS RESULTED IN PLENTY OF SUN OVER               
THE CWA...AND WITH 850MB TEMPS BETWEEN 10-12C PER 12Z RAOBS...                  
READINGS INLAND HAVE CLIMBED INTO THE 70S AND LOW 80S. THE WEAK                 
PRESSURE GRADIENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE HIGH HAS ALLOWED LAKE BREEZE              
CIRCULATIONS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES...KEEPING                
SHORELINE AREAS AS MUCH AS 15 DEGREES COOLER.                                   
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT AND SUN)...                                                
UPPER RIDGE IN SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA WILL FLATTEN AND PUSH SE AS THE             
SHRTWV OVER SASKATCHEWAN MOVES EASTWARD. BY 00Z MON...THIS SHRTWV               
SHOULD STRETCH FROM NW ONTARIO INTO EASTERN MN PER GFS/UKMET. AS A              
RESULT...THE SURFACE HIGH CURRENTLY OVER LAKE MICHIGAN WILL BE                  
SHOVED SLOWLY EASTWARD...ALLOWING FOR WARM AND MOIST ADVECTION TO               
OCCUR ACROSS MN...WI AND THE WESTERN U.P.. PRECIPITABLE WATERS ARE              
INDICATED TO NEARLY TRIPLE WHAT THEY WERE AT 12Z TODAY. THIS                    
ADVECTION WILL LIKELY RESULT IN SOME STRATUS DECK MOVING INTO THE               
WESTERN U.P. TOMORROW...SIMILAR TO THE BAND CURRENTLY NEAR I-29.                
WHETHER OR NOT THIS BAND PRODUCES PCPN IS A BIG QUESTION. THE NAM IS            
VERY AGGRESSIVE...DEVELOPING PCPN AS EARLY AS 15Z IN IWD...WHICH IS             
PROBABLY TOO QUICK GIVEN THE DRY AIR IN PLACE. THE GFS HAS SOME                 
LIGHT PCPN BETWEEN 18-00Z...BUT REALLY WAITS UNTIL AFTER 00Z WHEN               
BETTER PCPN DEVELOPS. THE CANADIAN AND UKMET DO NOT HAVE ANYTHING               
UNTIL AFTER 00Z MON. THEREFORE...FOR NOW HAVE ONLY DECIDED TO                   
INCLUDE A 20 POP FOR THE FAR WESTERN U.P....WHERE THE THETA-E                   
ADVECTION/CONVERGENCE IS STRONGEST. IN ADDITION...WANT TO HAVE A                
CHANCE IN JUST IN CASE THE LOW LEVELS END UP WARMING FASTER THAN THE            
MID-LEVELS...RESULTING IN A CASE FOR DEEP ELEVATED CONVECTION (AS               
SUGGESTED BY THE GFS NEAR IWD AT 00Z WITH 2000 J/KG OF CAPE LIFTED              
FROM 800MB).                                                                    
WIDE RANGE OF TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TONIGHT WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS                
PICKING UP ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE SURFACE HIGH. LOOKS LIKE THE                 
INTERIOR SOUTH CENTRAL AND EAST SHOULD DECOUPLE...AND WITH                      
PRECIPITABLE WATER REMAINING LOW...THOUGH 0.10-0.20 INCH HIGHER THAN            
LAST NIGHT...WENT CLOSER TO THE 00Z MEX COOP GUIDANCE FOR LOWS                  
INLAND SOUTH CENTRAL AND EAST (43F FOR PARADISE). LAND BREEZES                  
COMBINING WITH THE SW WIND FLOW SHOULD PREVENT MUCH OF THE AREA                 
BORDERING LAKE SUPERIOR FROM FALLING BELOW 60. ON SUNDAY...850MB                
TEMPS INCREASING TO 12C EAST TO 16C WEST BY 18Z...COMBINED WITH                 
PLENTY OF SUN (THOUGH DIMINISHING IN THE WEST IN THE                            
AFTERNOON)...SHOULD ALLOW READINGS TO CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 70S TO               
MID 80S. A RELATIVELY BREEZY S TO SW WIND SHOULD KEEP THE LAKE                  
SUPERIOR LAKE BREEZE FROM COMING INLAND...THOUGH AMPLIFY A LAKE                 
MICHIGAN LAKE BREEZE. THUS READINGS IN THE LOW 70S EXPECTED ALONG               
THE GARDEN PENINSULA AND IN MANISTIQUE.                                         
.LONG TERM (SUN NIGHT THROUGH NEXT SAT)...                                      
LATEST NAM/GFS HAVE TRENDED FASTER WITH ADVECTING HIER H85 THETA-E/             
PWAT AIR (UP TO 2 INCHES OVER THE W BY 12Z MON) INTO THE CWA W-E SUN            
NGT EXCEPT OVER THE ERN ZNS...WHERE PESKY CUTOFF LO OVER THE MID                
ATLANTIC WL HOLD HI PRES RDG/DRIER AIR IN PLACE AND MAINTAIN DRY WX             
THRU THE NGT. BUMPED UP POPS TO HI CHC OVER THE W AND BROUGHT A LO              
CHC POP AS FAR E AS THE CNTRL ZNS BY MON MRNG. EXPECT A WIDE                    
VARIATION IN LO TEMPS ACRS THE FA WITH DRIER AIR HOLDING IN OVER THE            
E AND INFLUX OF MSTR OVER THE W.                                                
H5 HGT/TEMPS FCST TO RISE ON MON AS UPR RDG AXIS OVER THE W BLDS                
SLOWLY EWD WHILE SLUGGISH CUTOFF LO REMAINS OVER THE CNTRL                      
APPALACIANS. DEEP LYR H85-3 QVECTOR DVGC/RISING MID LVL TEMPS FCST              
TO STRENGTHEN CAPPING ABV LLVL MSTR STUCK IN PLACE OVER THE W                   
HALF...BUT DIURNAL HTG SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO TRIGGER ADDITIONAL               
SHRA/TSRA IN THIS AREA...ESPECIALLY SINCE WEAKER PRES GRADIENT WL               
ALLOW LK BREEZES TO FORM/SERVE AS FOCUS FOR SCT SHRA/TSRA IN THE                
ABSENCE OF LARGER SCALE DYNAMIC SUPPORT. MODIFIED GFS FCST SDNGS FOR            
SFC T/TD 83/66 YIELDS LOWEST 100MB MLCAPE UP TO 800 J/KG...BUT WITH             
SOME CIN UP TO 50-75 J/KG DUE TO INCRSG H8-7 TEMPS. WL GO NO MORE               
THAN 30 POP OVER THE W HALF. ACRS THE E...GFS/NAM FCST SDNGS SHOW               
TOO MUCH DRY AIR WL LINGER FOR ANY CHC OF PCPN. PER GFS MOS FOR                 
ERY...HAVE DROPPED POPS COMPLETELY FOR THE E.                                   
WITH NO DYNAMIC SUPPORT AND MID LVL DRYING MON NGT...EXPECT ANY                 
DIURNAL SHRA/TSRA TO DIMINISH MON EVNG...GIVING WAY TO A DRY                    
OVERNIGHT. WITH FLAT PRES GRADIENT/LGT WINDS AND LINGERING LLVL MSTR            
UNDER THE MID LVL DRYING...ADDED PTCHY FOG OVER THE INTERIOR W HALF.            
ALTHOUGH LLVL MSTR WL LINGER OVER THE W HALF ON TUE...PREFER THE                
DRIER GFS SCENARIO UNDER UPR RDG AXIS AND MID LVL WARMING/CAPPING IN            
THE H75-6 LYR. BUT MAINTAINED GOING SCHC POPS OVER THE INTERIOR W               
HALF WHERE LK BREEZES MAY PROVIDE FOCUS/LINGERING LLVL MSTR IS                  
GREATEST/MODIFIED GFS FCST SDNG FOR IRON RIVER AT 00Z YIELDS LOWEST             
100MB MLCAPE UP TO 1600 J/KG AND ONLY -25 J/KG CIN AND KINX TO 35               
FOR SFC T/TD OF 83/66. PCPN CHCS OVER THE E REMAIN NEGLIGIBLE WITH              
LINGERING DRIER AIR IN THE LLVLS.                                               
EXCEPT FOR THE 00Z CNDN MODEL...MODEL CONSENSUS NOW IN GOOD                     
AGREEMENT SHOWING UPR RDG WITH H5 TEMPS AS HI AS -4C DOMINATING THE             
UPR GRT LKS ON WED INTO THU. ECMWF FCSTG H85 TEMPS AS HI AS 22C                 
WHILE GFS A BIT MORE CONSERVATIVE WITH 18-20C DURING THIS PD. WL                
TEND TOWARD THE HI END OF 00Z GFS MOS GUIDANCE FOR MAX TEMPS FCST               
WITH A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE AND DRY WX. QUESTIONS THEN LINGER AS TO            
HOW QUICKLY WESTERLIES OVER CAN WL DIP INTO THE NRN CONUS. MOST OF              
THE 00Z OPS MODELS WITH SUPPORT FM MAJORITY OF 00Z GFS REFCST                   
ENSEMBLE MEMBERS HAVE TRENDED FASTER TO LOWER HGTS OVER THE UPR LKS             
AT THE END OF THE WEEK. NCEP MANUAL GUIDANCE SHOWS COLD FROPA                   
ACCOMPANYING THIS MORE WNW FLOW ALF ON FRI...SO HAVE INTRODUCED CHC             
POPS OVER THE NW COUNTIES LATE THU NGT AND LINGERED POPS INTO SAT               
OVER THE SRN ZNS...WHERE NCEP GUIDANCE SHOWS FNT MOVING BY AT 12Z ON            
SAT.                                                                            
COORDINATED WITH GRB/DLH.                                                       
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION (FOR THE 18Z TAF ISSUANCE)...                                         
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA WITH PLENTY OF DRY AIR WILL KEEP SKIES              
CLEAR INTO SUN MORNING. KCMX SHOULD SEE A LAKE BREEZE FROM THE E SET            
UP THIS AFTERNOON...THEN A QUICK RETURN TO A SW DIRECTION TONIGHT AS            
THE HIGH SLOWLY DRIFTS EAST. KSAW SHOULD ALSO BECOME IMPACTED BY A              
LAKE BREEZE FROM LAKE MI THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT A LINE OF MVFR/VFR              
CLOUDS CURRENTLY EXTENDING ALONG I-29 TO MOVE INTO WESTERN UPPER MI             
SUN AFTERNOON WITH THE HIGH MOVING EAST...THOUGH PROBABLY NOT MAKING            
IT INTO CMX UNTIL CLOSER TO 00Z.                                                
&&                                                                              
.MARINE (FOR 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)...                           
WINDS BELOW 20 KT ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THU. HOWEVER...WINDS MAY                 
APPROACH 20 KT SUNDAY NIGHT OVER EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR...DUE TO A               
SURFACE TROUGH OVER NW ONTARIO SUNDAY EVENING MOVING SOUTH AND UP               
AGAINST HIGH PRESSURE NEAR LAKE ERIE.                                           
&&                                                                              
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                        
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHORT TERM/AVIATION/MARINE...AJ                                                 
LONG TERM...KC                                                                  
</pre> mi                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
130 PM EDT SAT JUL 21 2007                                                      
UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR 18Z TAFS                                        
.DISCUSSION (457 AM EDT)...                                                     
THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN DEALS WITH PCPN CHCS SUN NIGHT INTO TUE.              
WATER VAPOR LOOP...RUC ANALYSIS AND 00Z RAOB PLOTS SHOW AN AMPLIFIED            
UPR RIDGE BUILDING FROM THE PLAINS INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES.                
AT THE SFC HIGH PRES IS CENTERED OVER ERN UPR MI MAINTAINING CLEAR              
SKIES ACROSS THE REGION EARLY THIS MORNING.                                     
SUNNY SKIES AND MIXING OF 850 MB TEMPS 12-14C WILL ALLOW INLAND                 
HIGHS TO REACH THE UPR 70S AND LOWER 80S TODAY. WEAK PRES GRADIENT              
WITH THE PROXIMITY OF THE SFC HIGH WILL ALLOW FOR LAKE BREEZE                   
CIRCULATIONS TO KEEP TEMPS SLIGHTLY COOLER NEAR THE GREAT LAKES                 
SHORELINES.                                                                     
AS THE SFC HIGH SLIDES INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES...A BIT STRONGER              
SW FLOW WILL DEVELOP BEHIND IT OVER UPR MI TONIGHT. EXPECT THE                  
LOWEST TEMPS (AROUND 50F) OVER THE INTERIOR SCNTRL AND E COUNTIES               
CLOSER TO WEAKER PRES GRADIENT AND LOWER PWAT AIR ASSOCIATED WITH HI            
PRES CENTER.                                                                    
LOOK FOR A MOSUNNY AND WARMER DAY ON SUN WITH ANTICYCLONIC SW FLOW              
AROUND HI PRES OVER LAKE HURON. H85 TEMPS FCST TO RISE TO                       
14C-16C...AND MIXING AOA 800 MB ON GFS FCST SDNGS SUPPORTS HI TEMPS             
PUSHING APPROACHING 85F OVER MUCH OF W AND CENTRAL UPR MI.                      
MODERATION DOWNSTREAM OF LAKE MI WILL KEEP TEMPS A FEW DEGREES                  
COOLER THERE.                                                                   
MODELS STILL PERSIST ON BRINGING STRONG 850 MB THETA-E ADVECTION AND            
HIGHER PWATS (> 1.5 INCHES) INTO WRN COUNTIES SUN NIGHT INTO MON                
AHEAD OF SHRTWV LOBE RIDING OVER TOP OF PLAINS RDG. KEPT GOING                  
SLIGHT CHC POPS FOR THE WRN COUNTIES SUN NIGHT AND THEN SPREAD                  
SLIGHT CHC POPS INTO CENTRAL AND ERN COUNTIES ON MON AS HIGHER                  
PWAT/THETA-E AIR ADVANCE E.                                                     
00Z GFS/NAM AND CANADIAN MODELS ALL SEEM TO SUGGEST HIGHER                      
PWAT/THETA-E AIR AND SFC BOUNDARY WILL LINGER INTO TUE WITH CUT-OFF             
LOW DRIFTING WWD INTO THE OH VALLEY/LWR GRT LKS. THUS...HAVE                    
EXTENDED THE SLIGHT CHC POP FOR MON NIGHT INTO TUE EVENING ACROSS               
THE ENTIRE CWFA.                                                                
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION (FOR THE 18Z TAF ISSUANCE)...                                         
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA WITH PLENTY OF DRY AIR WILL KEEP SKIES              
CLEAR INTO SUN MORNING. KCMX SHOULD SEE A LAKE BREEZE FROM THE E SET            
UP THIS AFTERNOON...THEN A QUICK RETURN TO A SW DIRECTION TONIGHT AS            
THE HIGH SLOWLY DRIFTS EAST. KSAW SHOULD ALSO BECOME IMPACTED BY A              
LAKE BREEZE FROM LAKE MI THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT A LINE OF MVFR/VFR              
CLOUDS CURRENTLY EXTENDING ALONG I-29 TO MOVE INTO WESTERN UPPER MI             
SUN AFTERNOON WITH THE HIGH MOVING EAST...THOUGH PROBABLY NOT MAKING            
IT INTO CMX UNTIL CLOSER TO 00Z.                                                
&&                                                                              
.MARINE (FOR 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)...                           
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES WILL BUILD ACROSS THE                  
REST OF THE GREAT LAKES TODAY. LOW PRESSURE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS                
NORTHERN ONTARIO LATE SUN INTO SUN NIGHT MAY TEMPORARILY INCREASE               
PRESSURE GRADIENT ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR S WINDS TO INCREASE ABOVE 20              
KT ON EASTERN SECTIONS OF LK SUPERIOR. RELAXING GRADIENT ON MON                 
WILL RESULT IN SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS LESS THAN 20 KT THROUGH THE             
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.                                                            
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
DISCUSSION...VOSS                                                               
AVIATION...AJ                                                                   
MARINE...JLA                                                                    
</pre> mi                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE                                            
240 PM CDT SAT JUL 21 2007                                                      
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH 12Z MONDAY.  MAIN PROBLEM SURROUNDS               
RAIN CHANCES.  AFTERNOON SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACED A SUBTLE/WEAK                  
BOUNDARY ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS.  WEAK FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH                   
THIS...COMBINED WITH AMPLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE HAS LED TO THE                    
DEVELOPMENT OF ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL KANSAS.              
THE 12Z GFS/LATEST RUC AND 09Z SREF ALL SUGGEST THAT A FEW SHOWERS              
AND PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM ARE POSSIBLE FURTHER NORTH INTO SOUTH                
CENTRAL NEBRASKA IN THE MOISTURE/INSTABILITY AXIS.  WILL EXPAND THE             
CHANCE FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS FARTHER NORTH BASED ON THIS...BUT END               
THEM BY MID EVENING.                                                            
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS IN PLACE TONIGHT...WITH THE 12Z NAM AND              
GFS BOTH SUGGESTING THAT THE FAVORED LOCATION FOR STRATUS                       
FORMATION WILL BE ACROSS EASTERN NEBRASKA WHICH COULD IMPACT                    
MAINLY EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. WILL INCREASE                     
CLOUDS IN THE EAST LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY MORNING TO                     
ACCOUNT FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF STRATUS. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE                    
AROUND 70 IN MOST SPOTS.                                                        
IT IS A TOUGH CALL ON RAIN CHANCES FOR SUNDAY WITH THE                          
MOISTURE/INSTABILITY AXIS STILL ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE                  
FORECAST AREA. THERE SHOULD BE LITTLE IN THE WAY OF LOW LEVEL                   
FORCING MECHANISMS...HOWEVER THE 12Z NAM AND GFS BOTH SUGGEST                   
THERE COULD BE A WEAK UPPER WAVE MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL NEBRASKA.                
THE 09Z SREF ALSO INCREASES THE RAIN CHANCES ACROSS THE EASTERN                 
HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA IN THE AFTERNOON/EVENING...SO WILL                    
CONTINUE TO CARRY A SLIGHT CHANCE POP. HAVE GONE FOR HIGHS IN THE               
LOWER TO MID 90S ON SUNDAY...WITH LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT AGAIN AROUND                
70.                                                                             
.LONG TERM...12Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. ANOTHER RIDGE RIDER COMES             
THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THIS WILL BRING A                
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE                   
FORECAST AREA...MAINLY EAST OF HIGHWAY 281. AFTER THAT...RIDGE                  
BUILDS IN FAIRLY WELL UNTIL NEXT WAVE MAKES IT INTO THE AREA ON                 
FRIDAY. THIS WAVE AND THE RETROGRADING UPPER LOW MOVING WEST ACROSS             
THE OHIO VALLEY WILL BRING ANOTHER FRONT THROUGH THE REGION. THIS               
WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS FROM FRIDAY EVENING INTO                  
SATURDAY. STILL TOO EARLY TO ADD ANY DEFINITION TO AREA AND TIMING              
AND WILL KEEP POPS IN THE SLIGHT CHANCE CATEGORY.                               
AFTERNOON TEMPS TO BE NORMAL FOR MID-JULY WITH READINGS IN THE 90 TO            
95 DEGREE RANGE. IT WILL BE A LITTLE COOLER ON SATURDAY AS                      
CLOUDS/PRECIP AND FRONT PASSAGE WILL KEEP TEMPS IN THE UPPER 80S TO             
LOWER 90S.  OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE TO BE IN THE MIDDLE 60S TO LOWER 70S.            
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...THERE COULD BE AN ISOLATED SHOWER THIS AFTERNOON                    
ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA...BUT THINK COVERAGE                  
WILL BE LOW ENOUGH TO LEAVE OUT OF THE KGRI TERMINAL. LOW LEVEL                 
MOISTURE REMAINS IN PLACE TONIGHT WHICH COULD AGAIN LEAD TO SOME                
LIGHT FOG OR LOW CLOUDS. IT APPEARS THE BETTER LOW LEVEL                        
SATURATION OCCURS ACROSS EASTERN NEBRASKA...SO WILL ONLY GO WITH                
SCATTERED LOWER CLOUDS FOR NOW.                                                 
&&                                                                              
.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
NE...NONE.                                                                      
KS...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHORT TERM/AVIATION...KING                                                      
LONG TERM...KISNER                                                              
</pre> ne                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE                                            
1227 PM CDT SAT JUL 21 2007                                                     
.AVIATION...THERE COULD BE AN ISOLATED SHOWER THIS AFTERNOON                    
ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA...BUT THINK COVERAGE                  
WILL BE LOW ENOUGH TO LEAVE OUT OF THE KGRI TERMINAL. LOW LEVEL                 
MOISTURE REMAINS IN PLACE TONIGHT WHICH COULD AGAIN LEAD TO SOME                
LIGHT FOG OR LOW CLOUDS. IT APPEARS THE BETTER LOW LEVEL                        
SATURATION OCCURS ACROSS EASTERN NEBRASKA...SO WILL ONLY GO WITH                
SCATTERED LOWER CLOUDS FOR NOW.                                                 
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 402 AM CDT SAT JUL 21 2007/                         
DISCUSSION...PAST EVENING UPPER AIR DATA ALONG WITH EARLY MORNING               
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW A LARGE RIDGE SITTING ACROSS              
THE CENTRAL CONUS.  SEVERAL SMALL BUT POTENT WAVES CAN BE SEEN                  
ROTATING AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THIS RIDGE.  LATEST SURFACE                    
ANALYSIS SHOWS A STATIONARY FRONT STRETCHING FROM SOUTHEAST KANSAS              
INTO WESTERN NEBRASKA.  RUC ANALYSIS DATA SHOWS MODEST 850MB THETA-E            
ADVECTION EAST OF THE SURFACE FRONT WHICH CONTINUES TO TRIGGER SOME             
WEAK ISOLATED CONVECTION ACROSS EASTERN KS INTO WESTERN IA.                     
A HOT AND GENERALLY DRY PATTERN WILL TAKE HOLD OF THE REGION TODAY              
INTO TONIGHT AS THE UPPER RIDGE REMAINS IN CONTROL OF THE AREA.  THIS           
WILL ALLOW THE AFOREMENTIONED STATIONARY FRONT TO CONTINUE LIFTING              
SLOWLY NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION TODAY.  ALTHOUGH LOW LEVEL                   
FORCING ALONG THIS BOUNDARY WILL BE WEAK AT BEST...CAPE VALUES OF               
1500-2000 J/KG ALONG WITH WEAK CAPPING COULD TRIGGER A FEW SHOWERS              
EAST OF A HEBRON TO BELOIT LINE THIS AFTERNOON TO EARLY EVENING.                
OTHERWISE...LOOK FOR STRATUS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE REGION THIS                 
MORNING TO SLOWLY GIVE WAY TO A MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKY AS            
TEMPERATURES CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 80S TO MID 90S.                               
SUNDAY IS THEN SHAPING UP TO BE ANOTHER HOT AND GENERALLY DRY DAY               
ACROSS THE AREA ALTHOUGH THE UPPER RIDGE IS SHOWN TO BEGIN                      
RETROGRADING BACK INTO THE ROCKIES AND INTERMOUNTAIN WEST DURING                
THIS TIME FRAME.  ALTHOUGH BETTER LOW LEVEL FORCING ON SUNDAY WILL              
REMAIN ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS CLOSER TO THE LEE TROUGH...A SMALL BUT            
POTENT WAVE SLIDING SOUTH ALONG THE FRONT SIDE OF THE UPPER RIDGE               
MAY TRIGGER SOME ISOLATED CONVECTION.  BEST CHANCE FOR THIS                     
CONVECTION LOOKS TO BE EAST OF A YORK TO BELOIT LINE.  WILL AIM FOR             
AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S.                                        
AS THE REGION HEADS INTO MONDAY THE UPPER RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD BACK            
INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS WHILE A POSITIVELY TITLED UPPER TROUGH OVER            
THE EASTERN CONUS BEGINS TO BACK INTO THE LOWER TO MID MS RIVER                 
VALLEY.  THIS WILL KEEP THE FORECAST AREA ON THE UNSETTLED EASTERN              
EDGE OF THE UPPER RIDGE.  AS WAS THE CASE ON SUNDAY...IT APPEARS                
ANOTHER WAVE RIDING ALONG THE FRONT SIDE OF THE RIDGE COULD TRIGGER             
SOME ISOLATED CONVECTION EAST OF A YORK TO BELOIT LINE.  AFTERNOON              
TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO BE SIMILAR WITH HIGHS VARYING FROM THE LOWER             
TO MID 90S.                                                                     
&&                                                                              
.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
NE...NONE.                                                                      
KS...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</pre> ne                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE                                        
1132 AM CDT SAT JUL 21 2007                                                     
.UPDATE...                                                                      
FORECAST UPDATED TO REMOVE MORNING CLOUDS. VISIBLE SHOWS STRATUS                
RAPIDLY ERODING ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN ZONES. NO OTHER CHANGES AS              
A WARM...HUMID AND MOSTLY SUNNY AFTERNOON APPEARS TO BE ON TRACK.               
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 344 AM CDT SAT JUL 21 2007/                         
DISCUSSION...                                                                   
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE REGION...HOWEVER LOW                
LEVEL MOISTURE MAKING FOR A DIFFICULT FORECAST. MAIN CONCERNS LEAN              
ON LOW CLOUDS AND TEMPERATURES.                                                 
WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGE REALLY NOT GOING ANYWHERE THROUGH THE                    
FORECAST PERIOD...THE SURFACE CONDITIONS ARE THE MAIN PLAYER.                   
SOUTHEAST WINDS HAVE USHERED EVEN MORE MOISTURE OVERNIGHT WITH DEW              
PTS HOVERING CLOSE TO THE 70 DEGREE MARK. WINDS HAVE KEPT UP NEAR               
10 KTS THUS TEMPS NOT FALLING NOR IS FOG BELOW 4SM BEEN ABLE TO                 
FORM. STRATUS HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS MOST OF THE EASTERN HALF OF                  
FA...PER SAT. EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE THROUGH THE MORNING.                         
THEN COMES THE QUESTION OF HOW LONG WILL STRATUS STICK AROUND AND               
WHAT EFFECT THE HIGH SURF MOISTURE PLAYS ON ATMOSPHERE TO WARM.                 
FOR SEVERAL DAYS NOW GUIDANCE HAS BEEN TOO WARM. SUSPECT THE                    
GUIDANCE IS FOLLOWING SEVERAL YEARS OF DROUGHT CONDITIONS AND                   
ALLOWING FOR MORE SURFACE HEATING THAT IS POSSIBLE WITH ALL THE                 
SURF MOISTURE. THUS WILL CONTINUE TO GO TOWARDS THE LOWER GUIDANCE              
VALUES. EXCEPTION WILL BE ACROSS NW FA WHERE DRIER CONDITIONS                   
EXIST AND CLOSER TO WARMER GUIDANCE.                                            
WEAK TROF ALONG THE FRONT RANGE AND UPSLOPE FLOW TO LIKELY                      
CONTINUE TO FIRE STORMS TO OUR WEST. NAM SUGGEST A SLIGHT EASTWARD              
SHIFT OF THE TROF INTO THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE LATE IN THE DAY                   
TOMORROW. WITH HIGH MOISTURE AND HIGH TEMPS...INSTABILITY IS                    
GREAT...HOWEVER SO IS THE CAP AS TEMPS WARM ALOFT. WENT AHEAD AND               
ADDED LOW POPS...SLIGHT CHANCE...ACROSS NW ZONES. SHEAR IS WEAK SO              
NOT EXPECTING MUCH...IF ANY...ACTIVITY TO GET GOING TO BE VERY                  
STRONG.                                                                         
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK CONTINUES TO SEE ABOVE TEMPS WITH LITTLE                  
CHANCE FOR MOISTURE. TEMPS ALOFT TO KEEP A DECENT CAP...HOWEVER LL              
MOISTURE COULD SEE SOME SPOTTY CU FIELDS.                                       
AVIATION...                                                                     
AVIATION FORECASTS REMAIN CHALLENGING. CURRENT STRATUS TRENDS ARE               
NOT IN AGREEMENT WITH 12KM NAM BLYR RH FCSTS. PREVAILING MVFR WITH              
LOCALLY IFR CIGS ARE EXPANDING ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN HALF OF                  
FORECAST AREA WHILE TAF SITE KVTN NOW ON WRN EDGE OF MVFR CIGS. KLBF            
NO LONGER NEAR STRATUS AND ANY IFR CIGS AND HAVE UPDATED SITE FOR               
ONLY TEMPO 4SM BR TIL 14Z.  11-3.9 MICRO SATELLITE IMAGERY AND RUC40            
300-310K THETA SFC SUPPORT NORTHEASTWARD MOVEMENT OF STRATUS LEAVING            
KLBF FREE OF STRATUS RETURN THIS AM. THUS HAVE UPDATED KLBF TO                  
REMOVE CIGS. ALONG TWEB ROUTE 098...MVFR CIGS WILL PREVAIL FROM                 
NEAR KVTN TO 20 SE OF KONL TIL 14Z...THEN LIFT AND SCATTER OUT AFTER            
16Z. REMINDER OF TWEB ROUTE TO KOFK WILL SEE MVFR CIGS TIL 16Z DUE              
TO EASTWARD EXPANSION WHILE SEGMENT WEST TO KCDR WILL REMAIN UNDER              
VFR TODAY. TWEB ROUTES 264 AND 274 TO REMAIN UNDER VFR CONDITIONS.              
CONTINUED MONITORING OF SATELLITE IMAGERY AND TAF UPDATES FOR KVTN              
AND PORTIONS OF TWEB ROUTE 098 REMAIN LIKELY IF TREND CONTINUES.                
LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                              
NONE.                                                                           
$$                                                                              
&&                                                                              
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
NONE.                                                                           
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
MASEK/KAR/JMC                                                                   
</pre> ne