AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ                                             
137 PM MST WED AUG 20 2008                                                      
SOUTH-CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA                  
FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                             
.UPDATE...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION.                                          
&&                                                                              
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
A RELATIVELY DRY WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE            
DESERT SOUTHWEST THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THIS WILL PRECLUDE ANY                  
THREAT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA UNTIL LATE IN               
THE WEEKEND...WITH SUNNY SKIES EXPECTED UNTIL THEN. AFTERNOON                   
TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE ABOVE LATE AUGUST NORMALS...WITH                 
PLEASANTLY MILD NIGHTS.                                                         
&&                                                                              
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
LATEST RUC HAS ANALYZED A CLEARLY DEFINED MID-LEVEL TROUGH MOVING               
THROUGH THE MOJAVE DESERT...THOUGH THIS SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN AND IS               
NOT EXPECTED TO HAVE ANY IMPACT ON THE FORECAST AREA.                           
INSTEAD...CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY QUIET...WITH ABOVE                  
AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AND MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. FORECAST SOUNDINGS                 
YIELD NO CAPE THIS AFTERNOON AND WITH A WESTERLY/NORTHWESTERLY                  
STEERING FLOW...CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT                  
DEVELOP ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN WILL REMAIN WELL OUTSIDE OF THE               
FORECAST AREA.                                                                  
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...                                                          
EARLY MORNING SATELLITE PIX SHOWED A BAND OF HIGH CLOUDS TRAVERSING             
ACROSS NRN AZ...REPRESENTING A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSING BY               
THE REGION IN THE WLYS. THIS TROUGH IS THE SRN EXTENT OF A MUCH                 
LARGER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT IS PUSHING TOWARDS THE WRN COAST OF             
CANADA. AS THIS TROUGH MOVES EWD AND ACROSS THE EXTREME NRN TIER OF             
STATES THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...IT WILL BE RESPONSIBLE FOR KEEPING             
THE MONSOON RIDGE SUPPRESSED TO THE S. THIS POSITION WILL ALLOW FOR             
NO FURTHER INTRUSION OF SIGNIFICANT MONSOON MOISTURE FOR THE NEXT               
FEW DAYS. MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS FROM BOTH THE NAM AND GFS REFLECT            
THIS DRY SITUATION NICELY...WITH LITTLE TO NO THREAT OF DAILY STORMS            
ANYWHERE WITHIN THE CWA OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.                             
MEANWHILE...SURFACE DEWPOINTS ARE QUITE A BIT LOWER MOST PLACES THIS            
MORNING...REFLECTING THE DRY AIR INFILTRATING THE AREA. THESE LOWER             
DEWPOINTS WILL ALLOW FOR COOLER NIGHTS...AND HAVE TRENDED INHERITED             
MIN T GRIDS DOWN A COUPLE DEGREES AS A RESULT. MAX TEMPS WILL BE                
ABLE TO WARM UP QUITE EFFECTIVELY WITH THE DRY AIR...GENERALLY AVGG             
SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS.                                         
HOW LONG WILL THIS DRY...EXTENDED BREAK IN THE MONSOON LAST? WELL...            
ACCORDING TO LATEST GFS ENSEMBLE MEANS...RIDGE WILL STAY SUPPRESSED             
SWD THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS...ALTHO IT COULD ATTEMPT TO MAKE A NWD SHIFT            
FOR A TIME OVER THE WEEKEND. HOWEVER...FCST SOUNDINGS HOLD OUT VERY             
LITTLE HOPE THAT ANY SIGNIFICANT INCURSION OF MOISTURE IS IN THE                
OFFING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. HAVE THEREFORE LIMITED SLIGHT CHANCE               
TSTMS TO HIGHER TERRAIN OF ZONE 24 BEGINNING ABOUT SUNDAY AFTN THRU             
TUESDAY. LOOKING FOR AFTN TEMPS TO MAX OUT AROUND SUN/MON TIME FRAME.           
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA...KPHX/KIWA AND SURROUNDING AIRFIELDS...AND               
SOUTHWEST ARIZONA AND SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA...KNYL/KBLH AND KIPL...              
NO AVIATION CONCERNS EXPECTED. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT DIURNAL             
SURFACE WINDS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH AT LEAST 00 UTC             
FRIDAY.                                                                         
AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.                               
&&                                                                              
.FIRE WEATHER...                                                                
THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...                                                      
A DRIER AIR MASS OVER THE AREA WILL KEEP MINIMUM HUMIDITY LEVELS IN             
THE TEENS ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST ARIZONA DESERTS...DIPPING DOWN INTO              
THE SINGLE DIGITS ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND JTNP.             
OVERNIGHT RECOVERY ACROSS SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA WILL REMAIN POOR                 
THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING...AND POSSIBLY INTO THE WEEKEND. EXPECT                  
UPSLOPE WINDS...GUSTY AT TIMES WITH PEAK HEATING OF THE DAY...AND               
WEAK DRAINAGE FLOWS AT NIGHT.                                                   
MOVING EAST...THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SOUTHERN GILA COUNTY WILL HOLD              
ON TO HIGHER HUMIDITY LEVELS...WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AFTERNOON                
AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS BY SUNDAY. EXPECT A BETTER RECOVERY                   
TREND...AND LIGHT DIURNAL WINDS FAVORING WEST DURING THE DAY.                   
MOISTURE LEVELS TREND UPWARD ACROSS THE REGION BY LATE SATURDAY.                
THE MOISTURE COULD LEAD TO THE RETURN OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS              
ACROSS PORTIONS OF EASTERN ARIZONA BY SUNDAY...WITH MOISTURE                    
SPREADING WESTWARD INTO THE LOWER DESERTS EARLY NEXT WEEK.                      
&&                                                                              
.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
AZ...NONE.                                                                      
CA...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX IS ON THE INTERNET AT                          
WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX                                                             
DISCUSSION...HIRSCH/ESTLE                                                       
AVIATION...WANEK                                                                
FIRE WEATHER...MEYERS                                                           
</pre> az                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR                                         
955 PM CDT WED AUG 20 2008                                                      
.UPDATE...                                                                      
BULK OF RAINFALL HAS SHIFTED INTO NRN AR ATTM. THE UPR LOW WAS                  
NOTED OVR NERN OK EARLY THIS EVENING...WITH A SHRTWV VCNTY OF                   
SWRN AR. SCTD SHRA/ISOLD TSRA HAS PERSISTED OVR PARTS OF SWRN AR                
AND EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY TO SLOLY LIFT NWD OVERNIGHT AS THE UPR                 
SHRTWV LIFTS ACRS THE FA. BASED ON LATEST RUC/NAM DATA...FCST QPF               
AMOUNTS NOT AS HVY AS PREV INDCD...SO HAVE OPTED TO CANCEL THE FF               
WATCH. UPDATED HRLY TEMPS TO REFLECT CURRENT TRENDS. MIN TEMP FCST              
ON TRACK. NO OTHER CHGS TO GOING FCST. ALL UPDATES ARE OUT. /44/                
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 641 PM CDT WED AUG 20 2008/                         
AVIATION...                                                                     
FIRST ROUND OF RAINFALL MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHEAST...WITH THE                  
NEXT ROUND ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST. CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN MVFR TO                 
IFR THROUGH THE NIGHT...WITH LIFR CONDITIONS TOWARDS SUNRISE. AS                
THE SYSTEM BEGINS TO MOVE NORTHEAST THURSDAY...CONDITIONS WILL                  
GRADUALLY IMPROVE AFTER 15Z THURSDAY.                                           
&&                                                                              
.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                        
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</pre> ar                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID                                           
740 PM MDT TUE AUG 19 2008                                                      
.DISCUSSION...MID-LEVEL CLOUDS MOVING OVER THE FORECAST AREA THIS               
EVENING HAVE REDUCED THE OVERALL MIXING AND WIND SPEEDS THROUGHOUT              
THE SNAKE RIVER PLAIN AND HENCE THE LAKE WIND ADVISORY HAS BEEN                 
CANCELLED.  CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL HAS ALSO WEAKENED AND THIS WELL                
SUPPORTED BY LATEST RUC13 RUN WHICH HAS NOW BACKED AWAY FROM                    
CONVECTION 00-03Z THIS EVENING ACROSS THE SRN HIGHLANDS. UPDATES TO             
PRODUCTS COMING SOON. SEE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW. HUSTON                     
CONVECTION IS DEVELOPING OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CENTRAL                  
MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON. THIS IS IN RESPONSE TO A BROAD UPPER                  
LEVEL TROUGH THAT IS ADVANCING INTO THE REGION. NAM SHOWS MOST OF               
THE CONVECTION STAYING IN THIS AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND                          
EVENING...BUT ALSO HINTS AT AN ISOLATED STORM OR TWO DEVELOPING                 
OVER THE SNAKE PLAIN AND SOUTHERN HIGHLANDS...DRIFTING EASTWARD                 
THROUGHOUT THE EVENING.                                                         
THUNDERSTORMS CHANCES HANG AROUND WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS THE                 
UPPER TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. THE BETTER DYNAMICS WILL BE                
NORTH OF THE REGION CONSEQUENTLY EXPECT THE BETTER RAIN CHANCES                 
TO BE NORTH OF TH AREA. THIS TROUGH WILL BE BRINGING IN COOLER                  
TEMPERATURES AS WELL.                                                           
DRY WEATHER AND GRADUALLY WARMING TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FOR                 
THE WEEKEND AND BEYOND AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE REESTABLISHES                
ITSELF. VALLE                                                                   
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY.  MID TO             
HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE THROUGH THE NEXT 24                 
HOURS. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS             
THIS EVENING AND AGAIN WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. HANKO                               
&&                                                                              
.FIRE WEATHER...THE MAIN AREA OF THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS MOVED                
NORTHEAST INTO MONTANA. NO LIGHTING HAS BEEN OBSERVED IN SOUTHEAST              
IDAHO FOR THE LAST HOUR...THEREFORE THE RED FLAG WARNING FOR THE                
SALMON-CHALLIS NATIONAL FOREST AREA WILL BE CANCELLED. WIDELY                   
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP ON WEDNESDAY FOR              
THE FAR NORTHERN EXTENT OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS...MAINLY NORTH OF              
STANLEY. A COLD FRONT PASSAGE ON THURSDAY WILL BRING STRONG WINDS TO            
MUCH OF THE AREA...ALONG WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES. HANKO/SURVICK                
&&                                                                              
.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                        
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</pre> id                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA                                       
1245 PM EDT TUE AUG 19 2008                                                     
.UPDATE/AVIATION...                                                             
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER SRN ONTARIO BUILDING SEWD TODAY WITH                
CU/WIND FIELD SUGGESTING BACKDOOR CDFNT EXTENDING THROUGH FWA/SBN AT            
16Z. LAKE BREEZE ALSO PUSHING INLAND FROM SE LM SHOULD ENHANCE                  
CONVERGENCE ALONG THIS BOUNDARY PSBLY RESULTING IN ISOLATED                     
SHOWER/TSTM THIS AFTN. LIMITING FACTOR APPEARS TO BE INSTABILITY AS             
CURRENT LAPS/SPC ANALYSIS SUGGEST CAPES CONSIDERABLY LOWER THAN AT              
THIS TIME YDAY MAINLY DUE TO MID LEVEL WARMING AS UPPER TROF OVER               
ERN U.S. CONTS TO MOVE SLOWLY AWAY FROM OUR AREA. UPDATED ZFP TO                
FRESHEN WORDING AND FOR MINOR CHANGES INCLUDING MOVG THIS AFTN`S                
SCHC POPS W-SW CLOSER TO BOUNDARY LOCATION AND TO LOWER HIGH TEMPS              
SLIGHTLY ACROSS THE NE. AS FOR TAFS...APPEARS MVFR DECK UPSTREAM IS             
MIXING OUT AND IS NOT EXPECTED TO REACH THE TERMINALS. CONTD WITH               
SCT CU THIS AFTN/EVE WITH VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PD AS A LITTLE             
TIGHTER PRES GRADIENT TONIGHT ALONG WITH SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR MOVG IN             
FROM THE EAST SHOULD LIMIT FOG DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT.                           
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION...                                                             
UPDATE/AVIATION...                                                              
WILL UPDATE ZONES/HWO TO REMOVE FOG MENTION AS NO SGFNT REDUCTIONS              
TO VSBYS NOTED WITH LATEST OBS WITH JUST A TEMPO MVFR GROUP FIRST               
HOUR OF NEW TAFS. BACKDOOR CDFNT MOVG THROUGH AREA THIS MORNING.                
DAYTIME HEATING/DESTABILIZATION MAY LEAD TO A FEW SHRA/TS ALONG                 
FRONT OVER NRN INDIANA THIS AFTN AS CONVERGENCE BECOMES ENHANCED BY             
LAKE BREEZE. OTRWS...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PD AS HIGH             
PRESSURE DROPS SE INTO THE LWR GRTLKS. PRES GRADIENT OVER THE CWA               
WILL BE A LITTLE STRONGER TOMORROW MORNING DUE TO PROXIMITY OF THIS             
HIGH...SO NO RESTRICTIONS TO VSBY DUE TO FOG FCST AT TERMINALS IN               
THESE TAFS.                                                                     
SHORT TERM...                                                                   
TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY                                                         
BACKDOOR COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO DROP SSW ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES.               
PRECIP HAS ALL BUT DIMINISHED...SAVE A FEW SHOWERS IN SE MI. TROUGH             
AXIS AS OF 07Z WAS LOCATED FROM BIV EAST TO DTW. OTHERWISE...MASSIVE            
ROCKIES RIDGING CONTINUES WITH TROUGHING IN PLACE OVER SE CANADA...A            
TYPICAL SYNOPTIC PATTERN THIS SUMMER. ACROSS THE FA...WINDS WERE                
LIGHT TO CALM UNDER CLEAR SKIES. AREAS OF FG CONTINUE TO DEVELOP                
WITH EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL COOLING IN PLACE. WILL HIGHLIGHT FOG                 
MENTION IN ZONES WITH PATCHY DENSE MENTION.                                     
HAVE UTILIZED A BLEND OF THE NAM/GFS/RUC13/SREF/AND UKMET FOR                   
SYNOPTIC AND MESOSCALE EVOLUTION THIS FORECAST PERIOD...RELYING ON              
THE STRENGTHS OF EACH INDIVIDUAL MODEL.                                         
TODAY...BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL SAG SW INTO THE FA...SLOWING IN THE            
PROCESS AS MAIN UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT WILL SHIFT WELL NE OF THE GREAT             
LAKES. WEAK SFC CONVERGENCE WILL BE IN PLACE ALONG THE FRONTAL                  
BOUNDARY. BY AFTERNOON...LK MI LAKE BREEZE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP               
AND PUSH WELL INLAND AIDED BY LONG FETCH TRAJECTORIES AND UP-LK                 
PRESSURE RISES. WIND SHIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE COMBINE WITH            
FRONTAL CONVERGENCE/MOISTURE POOLING AND DAYTIME HEATING WILL                   
SUPPORT CONVECTIVE CU DEVELOPMENT. WEAK MID LEVEL COOLING UPSTREAM              
INDICATED BY RUC13 PROGS COMBINED WITH AFOREMENTIONED DYNAMICS MAY              
JUST BE ENOUGH TO FORCE A SH/TS...WITH SBCAPE PROGS IN THE 700 TO               
1000 J/KG. NAM/NMM/GFS/RUC13 PROGS ALL HIGHLIGHT THE SAME AREA IN               
NORTHERN IN/SE LOWER MI FOR ISOLATED CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON. HAVE            
ADDED SLT CH POPS FOR THIS. ANY CONVECTION SHOULD WAIN AFTER                    
SUNRISE...WITH A FEW LINGER SH POSSIBLE ON OLD OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES.              
FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN...BUT QUESTIONS STILL LINGER ON COVERAGE             
AND THICKNESS POTENTIAL GIVEN SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT IN PLACE. WILL              
WORD PATCHY FOG AT THIS TIME...TRENDING TOWARD MOS NUMBERS.                     
WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESIDE EAST OF THE FA...DOMINATING               
THE WX FOR MUCH OF THE GREAT LAKES. EXPECTING PT CLOUDY CONDITIONS              
WITH DEEP MIXING PER DRYING BL. HAVE GONE ABOVE GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS              
GIVEN DRY SOIL CONDITIONS/AMPLE SUN/AND H85 TEMPS. DRY AIR IN PLACE             
COMBINED WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL SUPPORT LARGE DIURNAL SWINGS              
WITH TEMPS LIKELY FALLING INTO THE LOW TO MID 50S WED                           
NIGHT...COOLEST READINGS IN OUTLYING AREAS. HAVE OPTED FOR COOLEST              
GUIDANCE PROGS GIVEN DRY CONDITIONS IN PLACE. WANDERING CUT OFF LOW             
WILL EDGE TOWARD THE REGION...POSSIBLY SPREADING SOME CIRRUS INTO               
THE SOUTH OVERNIGHT.                                                            
LONG TERM (THURSDAY TROUGH MONDAY)                                              
MAJOR CONCERNS FOR THE LONG TERM CONTINUE TO BE MOISTURE                        
RETURN/FRONTAL PASSAGE FOR LATE WEEK AND WEEKEND. MAJOR FEATURES OF             
THE WEEK LARGELY UNCHANGED WITH CWA UNDER INFLUENCE OF STRONG HIGH              
PRESSURE RIDGE AS CUT OFF LOW OVER TEXAS FINALLY MOVES NE AHEAD OF              
AN UPSTREAM TROF CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN CANADA.   TIMING OF LOW AND             
ASSOC MOISTURE RETURN NOW IN BETTER AGREEMENT BETWEEN GFS/EC WITH               
THE MAIN AXIS OF INSTABILITY REMAINING JUST TO OUR WEST...ALTHOUGH              
THE GFS IS STILL SLIGHTLY FURTHER EASTWARD AND THE ENSEMBLE MEAN                
PRODUCES PRECIP OVER THE CWA FRIDAY AFTERNOON.  WILL ONCE MORE                  
FOLLOW THE EC WHICH HAS HAD GOOD RUN TO RUN CONTINUITY AND LEAVE                
GRIDS DRY THROUGH FRIDAY FOR THIS PACKAGE.                                      
GFS/EC BOTH BRING FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO OUT DOORSTEP BY SATURDAY NIGHT            
BUT THE EC THEN SLOWS DOWN PROGRESSION LARGELY DUE TO THE HANDLING              
OF TS FAY REMNANTS WHICH IT PULLS NORTHWESTWARD INTO                            
ALABAMA/TENNESSEE...WHEREAS THE GFS STILL HAS FAY OUT OF PLAY OVER              
THE GULF.  EVEN WITH THIS UNCERTAINTY THE OVERALL PICTURE UP TO THIS            
POINT IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT AND LIKE THE SLOWER EC TIMING WITH STRONG            
RIDGING IN PLACE AHEAD OF THE BNDRY SO HAVE ELECTED TO ONCE AGAIN               
LEAVE THE WEEKEND OUTLOOK UNCHANGED WHILE NOTING THE FASTER GFS                 
WOULD IMPLY A QUICKER END TO POPS ON SUNDAY SHOULD IT COME TO                   
FRUITION.                                                                       
&&                                                                              
.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
IN...NONE.                                                                      
MI...NONE.                                                                      
OH...NONE.                                                                      
LM...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHORT TERM...CHAMBERLAIN                                                        
LONG TERM...LUDINGTON                                                           
AVIATION/UPDATE...JT                                                            
</pre> in                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA                                       
800 AM EDT TUE AUG 19 2008                                                      
.UPDATE/AVIATION...                                                             
WILL UPDATE ZONES/HWO TO REMOVE FOG MENTION AS NO SGFNT REDUCTIONS              
TO VSBYS NOTED WITH LATEST OBS WITH JUST A TEMPO MVFR GROUP FIRST               
HOUR OF NEW TAFS. BACKDOOR CDFNT MOVG THROUGH AREA THIS MORNING.                
DAYTIME HEATING/DESTABILIZATION MAY LEAD TO A FEW SHRA/TS ALONG                 
FRONT OVER NRN INDIANA THIS AFTN AS CONVERGENCE BECOMES ENHANCED BY             
LAKE BREEZE. OTRWS...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PD AS HIGH             
PRESSURE DROPS SE INTO THE LWR GRTLKS. PRES GRADIENT OVER THE CWA               
WILL BE A LITTLE STRONGER TOMORROW MORNING DUE TO PROXIMITY OF THIS             
HIGH...SO NO RESTRICTIONS TO VSBY DUE TO FOG FCST AT TERMINALS IN               
THESE TAFS.                                                                     
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION...                                                             
SHORT TERM...                                                                   
TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY                                                         
BACKDOOR COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO DROP SSW ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES.               
PRECIP HAS ALL BUT DIMINISHED...SAVE A FEW SHOWERS IN SE MI. TROUGH             
AXIS AS OF 07Z WAS LOCATED FROM BIV EAST TO DTW. OTHERWISE...MASSIVE            
ROCKIES RIDGING CONTINUES WITH TROUGHING IN PLACE OVER SE CANADA...A            
TYPICAL SYNOPTIC PATTERN THIS SUMMER. ACROSS THE FA...WINDS WERE                
LIGHT TO CALM UNDER CLEAR SKIES. AREAS OF FG CONTINUE TO DEVELOP                
WITH EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL COOLING IN PLACE. WILL HIGHLIGHT FOG                 
MENTION IN ZONES WITH PATCHY DENSE MENTION.                                     
HAVE UTILIZED A BLEND OF THE NAM/GFS/RUC13/SREF/AND UKMET FOR                   
SYNOPTIC AND MESOSCALE EVOLUTION THIS FORECAST PERIOD...RELYING ON              
THE STRENGTHS OF EACH INDIVIDUAL MODEL.                                         
TODAY...BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL SAG SW INTO THE FA...SLOWING IN THE            
PROCESS AS MAIN UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT WILL SHIFT WELL NE OF THE GREAT             
LAKES. WEAK SFC CONVERGENCE WILL BE IN PLACE ALONG THE FRONTAL                  
BOUNDARY. BY AFTERNOON...LK MI LAKE BREEZE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP               
AND PUSH WELL INLAND AIDED BY LONG FETCH TRAJECTORIES AND UP-LK                 
PRESSURE RISES. WIND SHIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE COMBINE WITH            
FRONTAL CONVERGENCE/MOISTURE POOLING AND DAYTIME HEATING WILL                   
SUPPORT CONVECTIVE CU DEVELOPMENT. WEAK MID LEVEL COOLING UPSTREAM              
INDICATED BY RUC13 PROGS COMBINED WITH AFOREMENTIONED DYNAMICS MAY              
JUST BE ENOUGH TO FORCE A SH/TS...WITH SBCAPE PROGS IN THE 700 TO               
1000 J/KG. NAM/NMM/GFS/RUC13 PROGS ALL HIGHLIGHT THE SAME AREA IN               
NORTHERN IN/SE LOWER MI FOR ISOLATED CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON. HAVE            
ADDED SLT CH POPS FOR THIS. ANY CONVECTION SHOULD WAIN AFTER                    
SUNRISE...WITH A FEW LINGER SH POSSIBLE ON OLD OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES.              
FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN...BUT QUESTIONS STILL LINGER ON COVERAGE             
AND THICKNESS POTENTIAL GIVEN SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT IN PLACE. WILL              
WORD PATCHY FOG AT THIS TIME...TRENDING TOWARD MOS NUMBERS.                     
WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESIDE EAST OF THE FA...DOMINATING               
THE WX FOR MUCH OF THE GREAT LAKES. EXPECTING PT CLOUDY CONDITIONS              
WITH DEEP MIXING PER DRYING BL. HAVE GONE ABOVE GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS              
GIVEN DRY SOIL CONDITIONS/AMPLE SUN/AND H85 TEMPS. DRY AIR IN PLACE             
COMBINED WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL SUPPORT LARGE DIURNAL SWINGS              
WITH TEMPS LIKELY FALLING INTO THE LOW TO MID 50S WED                           
NIGHT...COOLEST READINGS IN OUTLYING AREAS. HAVE OPTED FOR COOLEST              
GUIDANCE PROGS GIVEN DRY CONDITIONS IN PLACE. WANDERING CUT OFF LOW             
WILL EDGE TOWARD THE REGION...POSSIBLY SPREADING SOME CIRRUS INTO               
THE SOUTH OVERNIGHT.                                                            
LONG TERM (THURSDAY TROUGH MONDAY)                                              
MAJOR CONCERNS FOR THE LONG TERM CONTINUE TO BE MOISTURE                        
RETURN/FRONTAL PASSAGE FOR LATE WEEK AND WEEKEND. MAJOR FEATURES OF             
THE WEEK LARGELY UNCHANGED WITH CWA UNDER INFLUENCE OF STRONG HIGH              
PRESSURE RIDGE AS CUT OFF LOW OVER TEXAS FINALLY MOVES NE AHEAD OF              
AN UPSTREAM TROF CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN CANADA.   TIMING OF LOW AND             
ASSOC MOISTURE RETURN NOW IN BETTER AGREEMENT BETWEEN GFS/EC WITH               
THE MAIN AXIS OF INSTABILITY REMAINING JUST TO OUR WEST...ALTHOUGH              
THE GFS IS STILL SLIGHTLY FURTHER EASTWARD AND THE ENSEMBLE MEAN                
PRODUCES PRECIP OVER THE CWA FRIDAY AFTERNOON.  WILL ONCE MORE                  
FOLLOW THE EC WHICH HAS HAD GOOD RUN TO RUN CONTINUITY AND LEAVE                
GRIDS DRY THROUGH FRIDAY FOR THIS PACKAGE.                                      
GFS/EC BOTH BRING FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO OUT DOORSTEP BY SATURDAY NIGHT            
BUT THE EC THEN SLOWS DOWN PROGRESSION LARGELY DUE TO THE HANDLING              
OF TS FAY REMNANTS WHICH IT PULLS NORTHWESTWARD INTO                            
ALABAMA/TENNESSEE...WHEREAS THE GFS STILL HAS FAY OUT OF PLAY OVER              
THE GULF.  EVEN WITH THIS UNCERTAINTY THE OVERALL PICTURE UP TO THIS            
POINT IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT AND LIKE THE SLOWER EC TIMING WITH STRONG            
RIDGING IN PLACE AHEAD OF THE BNDRY SO HAVE ELECTED TO ONCE AGAIN               
LEAVE THE WEEKEND OUTLOOK UNCHANGED WHILE NOTING THE FASTER GFS                 
WOULD IMPLY A QUICKER END TO POPS ON SUNDAY SHOULD IT COME TO                   
FRUITION.                                                                       
&&                                                                              
.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
IN...NONE.                                                                      
MI...NONE.                                                                      
OH...NONE.                                                                      
LM...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHORT TERM...CHAMBERLAIN                                                        
LONG TERM...LUDINGTON                                                           
AVIATION/UPDATE...JT                                                            
</pre> in                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA                                       
359 AM EDT TUE AUG 19 2008                                                      
.SHORT TERM...                                                                  
TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY                                                         
BACKDOOR COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO DROP SSW ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES.               
PRECIP HAS ALL BUT DIMINISHED...SAVE A FEW SHOWERS IN SE MI. TROUGH             
AXIS AS OF 07Z WAS LOCATED FROM BIV EAST TO DTW. OTHERWISE...MASSIVE            
ROCKIES RIDGING CONTINUES WITH TROUGHING IN PLACE OVER SE CANADA...A            
TYPICAL SYNOPTIC PATTERN THIS SUMMER. ACROSS THE FA...WINDS WERE                
LIGHT TO CALM UNDER CLEAR SKIES. AREAS OF FG CONTINUE TO DEVELOP                
WITH EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL COOLING IN PLACE. WILL HIGHLIGHT FOG                 
MENTION IN ZONES WITH PATCHY DENSE MENTION.                                     
HAVE UTILIZED A BLEND OF THE NAM/GFS/RUC13/SREF/AND UKMET FOR                   
SYNOPTIC AND MESOSCALE EVOLUTION THIS FORECAST PERIOD...RELYING ON              
THE STRENGTHS OF EACH INDIVIDUAL MODEL.                                         
TODAY...BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL SAG SW INTO THE FA...SLOWING IN THE            
PROCESS AS MAIN UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT WILL SHIFT WELL NE OF THE GREAT             
LAKES. WEAK SFC CONVERGENCE WILL BE IN PLACE ALONG THE FRONTAL                  
BOUNDARY. BY AFTERNOON...LK MI LAKE BREEZE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP               
AND PUSH WELL INLAND AIDED BY LONG FETCH TRAJECTORIES AND UP-LK                 
PRESSURE RISES. WIND SHIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE COMBINE WITH            
FRONTAL CONVERGENCE/MOISTURE POOLING AND DAYTIME HEATING WILL                   
SUPPORT CONVECTIVE CU DEVELOPMENT. WEAK MID LEVEL COOLING UPSTREAM              
INDICATED BY RUC13 PROGS COMBINED WITH AFOREMENTIONED DYNAMICS MAY              
JUST BE ENOUGH TO FORCE A SH/TS...WITH SBCAPE PROGS IN THE 700 TO               
1000 J/KG. NAM/NMM/GFS/RUC13 PROGS ALL HIGHLIGHT THE SAME AREA IN               
NORTHERN IN/SE LOWER MI FOR ISOLATED CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON. HAVE            
ADDED SLT CH POPS FOR THIS. ANY CONVECTION SHOULD WAIN AFTER                    
SUNRISE...WITH A FEW LINGER SH POSSIBLE ON OLD OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES.              
FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN...BUT QUESTIONS STILL LINGER ON COVERAGE             
AND THICKNESS POTENTIAL GIVEN SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT IN PLACE. WILL              
WORD PATCHY FOG AT THIS TIME...TRENDING TOWARD MOS NUMBERS.                     
WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESIDE EAST OF THE FA...DOMINATING THE           
WX FOR MUCH OF THE GREAT LAKES. EXPECTING PT CLOUDY CONDITIONS WITH             
DEEP MIXING PER DRYING BL. HAVE GONE ABOVE GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS GIVEN             
DRY SOIL CONDITIONS/AMPLE SUN/AND H85 TEMPS. DRY AIR IN PLACE                   
COMBINED WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL SUPPORT LARGE DIURNAL SWINGS              
WITH TEMPS LIKELY FALLING INTO THE LOW TO MID 50S WED NIGHT...COOLEST           
READINGS IN OUTLYING AREAS. HAVE OPTED FOR COOLEST GUIDANCE PROGS               
GIVEN DRY CONDITIONS IN PLACE. WANDERING CUT OFF LOW WILL EDGE                  
TOWARD THE REGION...POSSIBLY SPREADING SOME CIRRUS INTO THE SOUTH               
OVERNIGHT.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM (THURSDAY TROUGH MONDAY)                                             
MAJOR CONCERNS FOR THE LONG TERM CONTINUE TO BE MOISTURE                        
RETURN/FRONTAL PASSAGE FOR LATE WEEK AND WEEKEND. MAJOR FEATURES OF             
THE WEEK LARGELY UNCHANGED WITH CWA UNDER INFLUENCE OF STRONG HIGH              
PRESSURE RIDGE AS CUT OFF LOW OVER TEXAS FINALLY MOVES NE AHEAD OF              
AN UPSTREAM TROF CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN CANADA.   TIMING OF LOW AND             
ASSOC MOISTURE RETURN NOW IN BETTER AGREEMENT BETWEEN GFS/EC WITH               
THE MAIN AXIS OF INSTABILITY REMAINING JUST TO OUR WEST...ALTHOUGH              
THE GFS IS STILL SLIGHTLY FURTHER EASTWARD AND THE ENSEMBLE MEAN                
PRODUCES PRECIP OVER THE CWA FRIDAY AFTERNOON.  WILL ONCE MORE                  
FOLLOW THE EC WHICH HAS HAD GOOD RUN TO RUN CONTINUITY AND LEAVE                
GRIDS DRY THROUGH FRIDAY FOR THIS PACKAGE.                                      
GFS/EC BOTH BRING FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO OUT DOORSTEP BY SATURDAY NIGHT            
BUT THE EC THEN SLOWS DOWN PROGRESSION LARGELY DUE TO THE HANDLING              
OF TS FAY REMNANTS WHICH IT PULLS NORTHWESTWARD INTO                            
ALABAMA/TENNESSEE...WHEREAS THE GFS STILL HAS FAY OUT OF PLAY OVER THE          
GULF.  EVEN WITH THIS UNCERTAINTY THE OVERALL PICTURE UP TO THIS                
POINT IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT AND LIKE THE SLOWER EC TIMING WITH STRONG            
RIDGING IN PLACE AHEAD OF THE BNDRY SO HAVE ELECTED TO ONCE AGAIN               
LEAVE THE WEEKEND OUTLOOK UNCHANGED WHILE NOTING THE FASTER GFS                 
WOULD IMPLY A QUICKER END TO POPS ON SUNDAY SHOULD IT COME TO                   
FRUITION.                                                                       
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION.../06Z TAFS/                                                          
REMNANT BOUNDARY IN PLACE OVER THE FORECAST AREA HAS ALL BUT WASHED             
OUT...LEAVING CALM WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE FA. CALM WINDS              
AND CLEAR SKIES WITH TEMP-DEWPOINTS SPREADS GROWING SMALLER...IS                
ALLOWING AREAS OF BR TO DEVELOP. EXPECT THIS TREND TO CONTINUE                  
THROUGH SUNRISE...WITH AREAS OF FOG LIKELY. HAVE ADDED 2SM AT FWA               
WHERE LL MOISTURE IS SLIGHTLY ELEVATED PER RESIDUAL MOISTURE                    
POOLING FROM YESTERDAYS BOUNDARY PUSH. LEFT THINGS A LITTLE MORE                
OPTIMISTIC AT SBN WHERE DRIER AIR IS IN PLACE. PATCHY DENSE FOG                 
WILL BE A POSSIBILITY...MAINLY AFTER 08Z...AND COULD VERY WELL                  
AFFECT THE TERMINALS. WILL MONITOR AND AMEND AS NEEDED.                         
FARTHER NORTH OVER MI...A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO PUSH                
SSW TOWARD THE FA AND WILL BE THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN THIS                    
AFTERNOON. LOOK FOR WINDS TO SHIFT NE BY AFTERNOON NE-SW ACROSS                 
THE FA. THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE FOR A SH/TS...BUT GIVEN WEAK                    
FORCING AND DYNAMICS...COVERAGE WOULD BE MINIMAL..AND THUS HAVE                 
LEFT ANY MENTION OUT OF TERMINALS.                                              
&&                                                                              
.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
IN...NONE.                                                                      
MI...NONE.                                                                      
OH...NONE.                                                                      
LM...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHORT TERM...CHAMBERLAIN                                                        
LONG TERM...LUDINGTON                                                           
AVIATION...CHAMBERLAIN                                                          
</pre> in                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS                                            
145 AM MDT TUE AUG 19 2008                                                      
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
TODAY-THURSDAY NIGHT...WE WILL CONTINUE TO TALK ABOUT THIS PAST                 
WEEKENDS UPPER LOW AS IT REMAINS A FACTOR IN THE FORECAST OVER THE              
NEXT FEW DAYS.                                                                  
FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT IT WILL NOT BE A FACTOR IN THE WEATHER                    
PICTURE. 850 TEMPERATURES AVERAGE A 3-9F WARM UP (WEST TO EAST)                 
WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S FROM FLAGLER SOUTHEAST                    
THROUGH TRIBUNE WITH 80-83 ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE AREA. FOR                       
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT THE UPPER LOW STARTS TO MOVE                      
NORTHEAST INTO PARTS OF EASTERN KANSAS AS A LARGE UPPER LOW ENTERS              
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST PUSHING A DOWNSTREAM RIDGE TO THE EAST.                   
WRAPAROUND CLOUDINESS WILL MOSTLY IMPACT THE EASTERN 1/3 OF THE                 
AREA BUT THE EXTENT IS SOMEWHAT IN QUESTION. EITHER WAY IT SHOULD               
NOT IMPACT TEMPERATURES AND HAVE GONE WITH HIGHS AROUND 80/LOW                  
80S. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE INTO THE BREEZY CATEGORY DURING              
THE AFTERNOON HOURS AS WELL. FOR THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT THE                
UPPER LOW CONTINUES NORTHEAST AND FINALLY OUT OF THE AREA AS THE                
PACIFIC NORTHWEST TROUGH DEEPENS BUT REMAINING WELL                             
NORTH/NORTHWEST OF THE AREA. UPPER RIDGING AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE                
COUPLED WITH BREEZY SOUTH WINDS AT THE SURFACE WILL ALLOW A 10F OR              
SO WARM UP WITH READINGS IN THE 85-90 DEGREE RANGE...WARMEST ACROSS             
THE WEST. NO PRECIPITATION EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.                     
WILL NEED TO MONITOR FOG POTENTIAL EACH NIGHT AFTER MIDNIGHT GIVEN              
RECENT RAINFALL. LATEST NAM/GFS SHOW A WIDELY SATURATED BOUNDARY                
LAYER THURSDAY NIGHT ACROSS ALL BUT FAR EASTERN COLORADO. WILL                  
NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON THIS FOR A MORE WIDESPREAD FOG POTENTIAL.                
FRIDAY...COLD FRONT ENTERS THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE                         
MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS AS LARGE UPPER AND SURFACE LOW SKIRT              
JUST NORTH OF THE NORTH DAKOTA/CANADIAN BORDER BEFORE LIFTING                   
NORTHEAST DURING THE NIGHT. AS IT DOES UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE                
MOVES TOWARD THE FOUR CORNERS AREA. LITTLE CHANGE MADE TO                       
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES GIVEN THE ECMWF/GFS 850 TEMPS. WILL KEEP                 
SLIGHT CHANCE/LOW CHANCE POPS FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AS MOISTURE                      
INCREASES ALONG AND BEHIND THE FRONT.                                           
SATURDAY-MONDAY...NO CHANGES MADE.                                              
DDT                                                                             
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
FOR THE 12Z TAFS AT KGLD AND KMCK...FOR KGLD AM EXPECTING                       
SCT-BKN003-007 DECK TO IMPACT THE SITE BETWEEN 09Z-12Z AND                      
LASTING THROUGH 14Z-15Z PER LATEST RUC AND SATELLITE                            
IMAGERY...OTHERWISE PERHAPS SOME FAIR WEATHER CU DURING THE DAY                 
WITH SKC SHORTLY AFTER DARK. FOR KMCK GENERALLY SKC THROUGH THE                 
PERIOD.                                                                         
DDT                                                                             
&&                                                                              
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
KS...NONE.                                                                      
NE...NONE.                                                                      
CO...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
WFO GOODLAND                                                                    
</pre> ks                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
138 AM EDT WED AUG 20 2008                                                      
UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION 06Z TAF ISSUANCE                                    
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
19Z WATER VAPOR LOOP AND RUC 500MB HEIGHT ANALYSIS SHOWED UPPER                 
RIDGING FROM SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST...TROPICAL             
STORM FAY CROSSING SE FLORIDA...A 582 DAM LOW NEAR WICHITA FALLS                
TX...AND A TROUGH OVER THE NE PACIFIC INTO THE PACIFIC NW. UPPER MI             
LIES ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE UPPER RIDGE...WHICH FAVORS SUBSIDENCE              
AND HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC. CURRENTLY THIS HIGH IS CENTERED ALONG             
THE ERN LAKE SUPERIOR/ONTARIO SHORELINE. A LOT OF DRY AIR EXISTS                
NEAR THIS HIGH...NOTED ON TAMDAR SOUNDINGS FROM SAW AND CMX WHICH               
HAVE 30-40C DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS BETWEEN 850-700MB. MIXING OF THIS              
DRY AIR TO THE SURFACE HAS BEEN SOMEWHAT TROUBLESOME...THOUGH...DUE             
TO THE COLD AIR THAT MOVED IN LAST NIGHT. SOME LOCATIONS LAST NIGHT             
DROPPED INTO THE 30S...SUCH AS CHATHAM WHICH FELL TO 34. THIS COLD              
AIR EVEN GENERATED SOME LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS OVER NRN LAKE MI...BUT               
THESE HAVE SINCE DISSIPATED. TO OUR SW...ANOTHER BAND OF MOISTURE               
NOTED BY CLOUDS EXTENDS FROM DLH TO GRB. TAMDAR SOUNDING FROM RHI               
SHOWS THIS WITH A BIT MORE SATURATION BETWEEN 800-900MB. OTHER LOW              
CLOUDS EXIST DOWN NEAR MILWAUKEE. FARTHER TO THE S...UPPER LEVEL                
MOISTURE CAN BE SEEN STREAMING NORTHWARD FROM LOUISIANA INTO                    
MISSOURI ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE UPPER LOW. A FEW STORMS ARE ALSO               
NOTED IN LOUISIANA WHERE DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE 70S. WELL OFF TO THE              
WEST...STORMS ARE MARCHING ACROSS THE PACIFIC NW WITH THE INCOMING              
UPPER TROUGH.                                                                   
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH WED NIGHT)...                                      
QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THIS PERIOD...THANKS TO            
THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST SHIFTING OVER UPPER MI ON                
WED...RESULTING IN CONTINUED SUBSIDENCE. HOWEVER...THERE ARE A FEW              
ISSUES TO DEAL WITH...MAINLY CLOUDS AND TEMPS. THIS EVENING SHOULD              
GENERALLY BE CLEAR ACROSS THE CWA...THEN SOME INCREASING CLOUDS ARE             
EXPECTED OVER THE WESTERN U.P. AS RETURN FLOW BRINGS THE CLOUDS TO              
OUR SW INTO THE AREA. WHERE THESE CLOUDS MOVE IN WILL ALSO BE THE               
SAME AREA WHERE SOUTHERLY WINDS PICK UP TONIGHT...AND THEREFORE                 
FORECAST LOWS ARE SIMILAR TO GUIDANCE. OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF                 
UPPER MI WHERE SKIES ARE CLEAR...THE WINDS ARE GENERALLY LIGHT ALL              
NIGHT AND PRECIPITABLE WATER STAYS AROUND 0.50 INCH...EXPECTING                 
TEMPS TO GET CHILLY AGAIN. WENT BELOW ALL GUIDANCE GIVEN WHAT                   
HAPPENED LAST NIGHT SINCE SIMILAR CONDITIONS ARE PRESENT...EXCEPT               
THAT THE AIRMASS HAS MODIFIED SLIGHTLY SINCE YESTERDAY. RETURN FLOW             
CLOUDS SHOULD CONTINUE SHIFTING INTO THE CENTRAL U.P. ON WED...BUT              
NOT PREVENT A DECENT AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE FROM OCCURRING. THIS                    
SUNSHINE...COMBINED WITH 850MB TEMPS OF 14C EAST TO 16C WEST WILL               
BRING HIGHS INTO THE 70S AND 80S...COOLEST ALONG THE LAKE MI SHORE              
WITH ONSHORE WINDS AND WARMEST IN THE WESTERN U.P. WHERE THE DEEPEST            
MIXING IS EXPECTED.                                                             
FOR WED NIGHT...THE GFS/NAM/UKMET ALL DEPICT A SHRTWV MOVING ON TOP             
OF THE UPPER RIDGE. THIS SHRTWV SHOULD HAVE LITTLE IMPACT GIVEN THE             
DRY AIR IN PLACE...AND LIKELY ONLY PRODUCING A FEW CLOUDS. THEREFORE            
A DRY FORECAST REMAINS. A SOUTHERLY BREEZE CONTINUES IN THE WESTERN             
U.P....SO TEMPS WILL BE ON THE MILD SIDE (FOLLOWED A BLEND OF THE               
MET/MAV GUIDANCE). FOR THE EASTERN U.P....THERE ARE INDICATIONS THAT            
WINDS MAY DECOUPLE IN THE INLAND AREAS. HOWEVER...PRECIPITABLE WATER            
VALUES ARE BETWEEN 0.75 INCHES AND 1 INCH...SUGGESTING THE NIGHT                
SHOULD NOT BE NEARLY AS COLD AS THE LAST TWO. THEREFORE...HAVE LOWS             
INLAND DROPPING BELOW GUIDANCE TO AROUND 50.                                    
.LONG TERM (THU THROUGH NEXT TUE)...                                            
PERIOD BEGINS WITH REGION STILL UNDER THE UPPER RIDGE AND INFLUENCE             
OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE NE U.S. FARTHER WEST...LONGWAVE              
TROUGH WORKING INTO THE PACIFIC NW AT 00Z THURS...WHICH WILL BE THE             
NEXT WEATHER MAKER FOR THIS AREA AND BRING THE BEST CHANCE OF RAIN              
IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD.                                                         
THURS LOOKS TO BE DRY WITH REGION BETWEEN THE SFC LOW OVER CANADIAN             
ROCKIES AND WARM FRONT STRETCHING EAST ACROSS SRN CANADA...AND UPPER            
LOW THAT HAS BEEN LINGERING OVER THE SRN PLAINS FOR THE LAST COUPLE             
OF DAYS. DISTURBANCES COMING OUT OF THE UPPER LOW WILL AFFECT THE               
REGION AT A COUPLE DIFFERENT TIMES. FIRST WAVE COMES THROUGH EARLY              
ON THURS AND EXPECTED TO BE DRY...DUE TO LIMITED FORCING AND DRY AIR            
LINGERING OVER THE AREA FROM THE EXISTING HIGH. MOISTURE LOOKS TO               
STREAM INTO THE SRN PART OF THE CWA ON THURS AFTN AND CONTINUE                  
ACROSS THE REST OF THE CWA ON THURS NIGHT. THERE ARE SOME                       
DIFFERENCES IN THE 00Z ECMWF AND 00/12Z GFS RUNS...AS TO LIGHT PCPN             
ACROSS THE SRN PART OF THE CWA FOR THURS NIGHT. THE 00Z ECMWF/GFS DO            
BRING PCPN TO THE AREA...AS ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE AND H850-700                 
Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. BELIEVE THERE SHOULD              
BE ENOUGH MOISTURE TO SQUEEZE A SOME -SHRA OUT...SO HAVE ADDED                  
SLIGHT CHANCES TO THE SOUTH CENTRAL PART OF THE CWA.                            
FOR FRIDAY...PCPN CHANCES BECOME A LITTLE HARDER TO PINPOINT...AS               
UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO SHEAR OUT AND LINGERING ENERGY SLIDES NE                 
ACROSS THE ERN PART OF THE CWA. WITH THE MOISTURE ALREADY PRESENT               
AND WEAK OMEGA/QVECTOR FORCING ON GFS/ECMWF...FELT ADDING SLIGHT                
CHANCES TO EASTERN HALF OF CWA WAS WARRANTED. AS FOR THE WRN                    
HALF...WITH THE AREA BETWEEN THE WAVE TO THE EAST AND APPROACHING               
SFC LOW OVER LK WINNIPEG AND SFC COLD FRONT STRETCHING S ALONG THE              
RED RIVER VALLEY AND S TO KFSD AND INTO ERN NEB BETWEEN 18Z FRI AND             
00Z SAT...DONT REALLY SEE MUCH CHANCE OF PCPN AND MORE LIKELY JUST              
PARTLY SUNNY SKIES. THEREFORE...ADDED SLIGHT CHANCES FOR THE WRN                
THIRD DUE TO APPROACHING FRONT. WINDS WILL BE A LITTLE GUSTY FROM               
THE SOUTH AHEAD OF THE FRONT ON FRI...WHICH MAY CREATE A FEW MARINE             
HEADLINES. FORTUNATELY...GULF MOISTURE WORKING NORTH WITH THE WINDS             
SHOULD LIMIT ANY FIRE WX ISSUES WITH THE DRY WX OF LATE.                        
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION FAIRLY QUICKLY ON FRI NIGHT AND             
INTO SAT. INSTABILITY INCREASES ON FRI OVER THE WRN HALF OF THE                 
CWA...WITH MLCAPES AROUND 500-700 J/KG BY FRI EVENING. WITH THE                 
STRONG H850 JET...AROUND 40-45KTS AHEAD OF THE FRONT...AND 6-7C                 
H700-500 LAPSE RATES...EXPECT SOME RUMBLES OF THUNDER AS THE FRONT              
MOVES THROUGH. 0-6KM BULK SHEAR VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO BE AROUND                
35-40KTS...BUT WITH CAPE DIMINISHING DURING THE OVERNIGHT                       
HOURS...DOWN TO 200-400 J/KG AND VERY TALL/SKINNY...DONT REALLY                 
EXPECT ANYTHING SEVERE. BIGGEST THREAT WILL BE SOME GUSTY WINDS IF              
PCPN LOADING CAN BRING SOME OF THE WINDS ALOFT DOWN. OVERALL...WITH             
PWAT VALUES AROUND 1.5...WE SHOULD SEE SOME MUCH NEEDED RAIN ACROSS             
MOST OF THE REGION.                                                             
SAT NIGHT THROUGH TUES...EXTENDED MODELS IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT ON            
HIGH PRESSURE DROPPING SOUTH ACROSS REGION. AS THE UPPER LOW SHIFTS             
ACROSS THE AREA ON SUN...SHOULD PROBABLY SEE SOME LOW/MID CLOUDS                
ACROSS LK SUPERIOR AND OVER LAND LOCATIONS NEAR LK SUPERIOR. GFS HAS            
BEEN HINTING THAT A FEW SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP OVER THE FAR ERN PART OF            
THE CWA ON SUN...WHICH WOULDNT BE SURPRISING GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF                
MOISTURE AND PROXIMITY TO UPPER LOW...BUT DIDNT HAVE ENOUGH                     
CONFIDENCE TO PUT IT IN RIGHT NOW. DRIER AIR THEN WORKS INTO THE                
AREA FOR SUN NIGHT THROUGH TUES...AS HIGH MOVES FROM THE ARROWHEAD              
OF MN ON SUN...TO THE NE U.S. ON TUES. WITH LIMITED CLOUD                       
COVER...SUBSIDING WINDS...AND PWAT VALUES EXPECTED TO BE ABOUT 50               
PERCENT OF NORMAL...COULD SEE SOME COLD NIGHTS UNDER THE HIGH ON                
SUN/MON NIGHT. HAVE TRENDED THE LOWS DOWN INTO THE MID 40S FOR                  
INTERIOR LOCATIONS...BUT EXPECT THE TRADITIONAL COLD SPOTS TO BE                
EVEN COLDER. FUTURE SHIFTS WILL PROBABLY NEED TO ADJUST THE TEMPS               
DOWN FURTHER. HIGHS ON MON/TUES SHOULD BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW                
NORMAL WITH H850 TEMPS IN THE 10-12C RANGE.                                     
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION (FOR THE 06Z TAF ISSUANCE)...                                         
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS/LGT WINDS TO PREVAIL THIS FCST PD WITH HI PRES            
RDG/DRY AIRMASS REMAINING DOMINANT.                                             
&&                                                                              
.MARINE (FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)...                       
HIGH PRESSURE OVER SE QUEBEC WILL SHIFT EAST OVER THE NORTHEAST U.S.            
ON THURSDAY...ALLOWING WINDS TO SHIFT TO THE SOUTH AND INCREASE                 
THROUGH FRIDAY. THIS IS DUE TO AN APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM               
OVER CANADA AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT OVER THE NRN PLAINS ON FRIDAY.            
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO GET A LITTLE GUSTY ON FRIDAY...WITH GUSTS TO              
25KTS OVER EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR AND LAKE MICHIGAN. WITH THE FRONTAL            
PASSAGE LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY                
FROM THE WEST NORTHWEST UP TO 25 KNOTS. HIGH PRESSURE THEN MOVES                
OVER THE REGION FOR SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY AND KEEP WINDS LESS THAN             
20KTS.                                                                          
&&                                                                              
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                        
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM...AJ                                                        
LONG TERM...SRF                                                                 
AVIATION...KC                                                                   
MARINE...SRF                                                                    
</pre> mi                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE                                               
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
725 PM EDT TUE AUG 19 2008                                                      
UPDATED FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE                                                    
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
19Z WATER VAPOR LOOP AND RUC 500MB HEIGHT ANALYSIS SHOWED UPPER                 
RIDGING FROM SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST...TROPICAL             
STORM FAY CROSSING SE FLORIDA...A 582 DAM LOW NEAR WICHITA FALLS                
TX...AND A TROUGH OVER THE NE PACIFIC INTO THE PACIFIC NW. UPPER MI             
LIES ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE UPPER RIDGE...WHICH FAVORS SUBSIDENCE              
AND HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC. CURRENTLY THIS HIGH IS CENTERED ALONG             
THE ERN LAKE SUPERIOR/ONTARIO SHORELINE. A LOT OF DRY AIR EXISTS                
NEAR THIS HIGH...NOTED ON TAMDAR SOUNDINGS FROM SAW AND CMX WHICH               
HAVE 30-40C DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS BETWEEN 850-700MB. MIXING OF THIS              
DRY AIR TO THE SURFACE HAS BEEN SOMEWHAT TROUBLESOME...THOUGH...DUE             
TO THE COLD AIR THAT MOVED IN LAST NIGHT. SOME LOCATIONS LAST NIGHT             
DROPPED INTO THE 30S...SUCH AS CHATHAM WHICH FELL TO 34. THIS COLD              
AIR EVEN GENERATED SOME LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS OVER NRN LAKE MI...BUT               
THESE HAVE SINCE DISSIPATED. TO OUR SW...ANOTHER BAND OF MOISTURE               
NOTED BY CLOUDS EXTENDS FROM DLH TO GRB. TAMDAR SOUNDING FROM RHI               
SHOWS THIS WITH A BIT MORE SATURATION BETWEEN 800-900MB. OTHER LOW              
CLOUDS EXIST DOWN NEAR MILWAUKEE. FARTHER TO THE S...UPPER LEVEL                
MOISTURE CAN BE SEEN STREAMING NORTHWARD FROM LOUISIANA INTO                    
MISSOURI ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE UPPER LOW. A FEW STORMS ARE ALSO               
NOTED IN LOUISIANA WHERE DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE 70S. WELL OFF TO THE              
WEST...STORMS ARE MARCHING ACROSS THE PACIFIC NW WITH THE INCOMING              
UPPER TROUGH.                                                                   
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH WED NIGHT)...                                      
QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THIS PERIOD...THANKS TO            
THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST SHIFTING OVER UPPER MI ON                
WED...RESULTING IN CONTINUED SUBSIDENCE. HOWEVER...THERE ARE A FEW              
ISSUES TO DEAL WITH...MAINLY CLOUDS AND TEMPS. THIS EVENING SHOULD              
GENERALLY BE CLEAR ACROSS THE CWA...THEN SOME INCREASING CLOUDS ARE             
EXPECTED OVER THE WESTERN U.P. AS RETURN FLOW BRINGS THE CLOUDS TO              
OUR SW INTO THE AREA. WHERE THESE CLOUDS MOVE IN WILL ALSO BE THE               
SAME AREA WHERE SOUTHERLY WINDS PICK UP TONIGHT...AND THEREFORE                 
FORECAST LOWS ARE SIMILAR TO GUIDANCE. OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF                 
UPPER MI WHERE SKIES ARE CLEAR...THE WINDS ARE GENERALLY LIGHT ALL              
NIGHT AND PRECIPITABLE WATER STAYS AROUND 0.50 INCH...EXPECTING                 
TEMPS TO GET CHILLY AGAIN. WENT BELOW ALL GUIDANCE GIVEN WHAT                   
HAPPENED LAST NIGHT SINCE SIMILAR CONDITIONS ARE PRESENT...EXCEPT               
THAT THE AIRMASS HAS MODIFIED SLIGHTLY SINCE YESTERDAY. RETURN FLOW             
CLOUDS SHOULD CONTINUE SHIFTING INTO THE CENTRAL U.P. ON WED...BUT              
NOT PREVENT A DECENT AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE FROM OCCURRING. THIS                    
SUNSHINE...COMBINED WITH 850MB TEMPS OF 14C EAST TO 16C WEST WILL               
BRING HIGHS INTO THE 70S AND 80S...COOLEST ALONG THE LAKE MI SHORE              
WITH ONSHORE WINDS AND WARMEST IN THE WESTERN U.P. WHERE THE DEEPEST            
MIXING IS EXPECTED.                                                             
FOR WED NIGHT...THE GFS/NAM/UKMET ALL DEPICT A SHRTWV MOVING ON TOP             
OF THE UPPER RIDGE. THIS SHRTWV SHOULD HAVE LITTLE IMPACT GIVEN THE             
DRY AIR IN PLACE...AND LIKELY ONLY PRODUCING A FEW CLOUDS. THEREFORE            
A DRY FORECAST REMAINS. A SOUTHERLY BREEZE CONTINUES IN THE WESTERN             
U.P....SO TEMPS WILL BE ON THE MILD SIDE (FOLLOWED A BLEND OF THE               
MET/MAV GUIDANCE). FOR THE EASTERN U.P....THERE ARE INDICATIONS THAT            
WINDS MAY DECOUPLE IN THE INLAND AREAS. HOWEVER...PRECIPITABLE WATER            
VALUES ARE BETWEEN 0.75 INCHES AND 1 INCH...SUGGESTING THE NIGHT                
SHOULD NOT BE NEARLY AS COLD AS THE LAST TWO. THEREFORE...HAVE LOWS             
INLAND DROPPING BELOW GUIDANCE TO AROUND 50.                                    
.LONG TERM (THU THROUGH NEXT TUE)...                                            
PERIOD BEGINS WITH REGION STILL UNDER THE UPPER RIDGE AND INFLUENCE             
OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE NE U.S. FARTHER WEST...LONGWAVE              
TROUGH WORKING INTO THE PACIFIC NW AT 00Z THURS...WHICH WILL BE THE             
NEXT WEATHER MAKER FOR THIS AREA AND BRING THE BEST CHANCE OF RAIN              
IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD.                                                         
THURS LOOKS TO BE DRY WITH REGION BETWEEN THE SFC LOW OVER CANADIAN             
ROCKIES AND WARM FRONT STRETCHING EAST ACROSS SRN CANADA...AND UPPER            
LOW THAT HAS BEEN LINGERING OVER THE SRN PLAINS FOR THE LAST COUPLE             
OF DAYS. DISTURBANCES COMING OUT OF THE UPPER LOW WILL AFFECT THE               
REGION AT A COUPLE DIFFERENT TIMES. FIRST WAVE COMES THROUGH EARLY              
ON THURS AND EXPECTED TO BE DRY...DUE TO LIMITED FORCING AND DRY AIR            
LINGERING OVER THE AREA FROM THE EXISTING HIGH. MOISTURE LOOKS TO               
STREAM INTO THE SRN PART OF THE CWA ON THURS AFTN AND CONTINUE                  
ACROSS THE REST OF THE CWA ON THURS NIGHT. THERE ARE SOME                       
DIFFERENCES IN THE 00Z ECMWF AND 00/12Z GFS RUNS...AS TO LIGHT PCPN             
ACROSS THE SRN PART OF THE CWA FOR THURS NIGHT. THE 00Z ECMWF/GFS DO            
BRING PCPN TO THE AREA...AS ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE AND H850-700                 
Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. BELIEVE THERE SHOULD              
BE ENOUGH MOISTURE TO SQUEEZE A SOME -SHRA OUT...SO HAVE ADDED                  
SLIGHT CHANCES TO THE SOUTH CENTRAL PART OF THE CWA.                            
FOR FRIDAY...PCPN CHANCES BECOME A LITTLE HARDER TO PINPOINT...AS               
UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO SHEAR OUT AND LINGERING ENERGY SLIDES NE                 
ACROSS THE ERN PART OF THE CWA. WITH THE MOISTURE ALREADY PRESENT               
AND WEAK OMEGA/QVECTOR FORCING ON GFS/ECMWF...FELT ADDING SLIGHT                
CHANCES TO EASTERN HALF OF CWA WAS WARRANTED. AS FOR THE WRN                    
HALF...WITH THE AREA BETWEEN THE WAVE TO THE EAST AND APPROACHING               
SFC LOW OVER LK WINNIPEG AND SFC COLD FRONT STRETCHING S ALONG THE              
RED RIVER VALLEY AND S TO KFSD AND INTO ERN NEB BETWEEN 18Z FRI AND             
00Z SAT...DONT REALLY SEE MUCH CHANCE OF PCPN AND MORE LIKELY JUST              
PARTLY SUNNY SKIES. THEREFORE...ADDED SLIGHT CHANCES FOR THE WRN                
THIRD DUE TO APPROACHING FRONT. WINDS WILL BE A LITTLE GUSTY FROM               
THE SOUTH AHEAD OF THE FRONT ON FRI...WHICH MAY CREATE A FEW MARINE             
HEADLINES. FORTUNATELY...GULF MOISTURE WORKING NORTH WITH THE WINDS             
SHOULD LIMIT ANY FIRE WX ISSUES WITH THE DRY WX OF LATE.                        
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION FAIRLY QUICKLY ON FRI NIGHT AND             
INTO SAT. INSTABILITY INCREASES ON FRI OVER THE WRN HALF OF THE                 
CWA...WITH MLCAPES AROUND 500-700 J/KG BY FRI EVENING. WITH THE                 
STRONG H850 JET...AROUND 40-45KTS AHEAD OF THE FRONT...AND 6-7C                 
H700-500 LAPSE RATES...EXPECT SOME RUMBLES OF THUNDER AS THE FRONT              
MOVES THROUGH. 0-6KM BULK SHEAR VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO BE AROUND                
35-40KTS...BUT WITH CAPE DIMINISHING DURING THE OVERNIGHT                       
HOURS...DOWN TO 200-400 J/KG AND VERY TALL/SKINNY...DONT REALLY                 
EXPECT ANYTHING SEVERE. BIGGEST THREAT WILL BE SOME GUSTY WINDS IF              
PCPN LOADING CAN BRING SOME OF THE WINDS ALOFT DOWN. OVERALL...WITH             
PWAT VALUES AROUND 1.5...WE SHOULD SEE SOME MUCH NEEDED RAIN ACROSS             
MOST OF THE REGION.                                                             
SAT NIGHT THROUGH TUES...EXTENDED MODELS IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT ON            
HIGH PRESSURE DROPPING SOUTH ACROSS REGION. AS THE UPPER LOW SHIFTS             
ACROSS THE AREA ON SUN...SHOULD PROBABLY SEE SOME LOW/MID CLOUDS                
ACROSS LK SUPERIOR AND OVER LAND LOCATIONS NEAR LK SUPERIOR. GFS HAS            
BEEN HINTING THAT A FEW SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP OVER THE FAR ERN PART OF            
THE CWA ON SUN...WHICH WOULDNT BE SURPRISING GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF                
MOISTURE AND PROXIMITY TO UPPER LOW...BUT DIDNT HAVE ENOUGH                     
CONFIDENCE TO PUT IT IN RIGHT NOW. DRIER AIR THEN WORKS INTO THE                
AREA FOR SUN NIGHT THROUGH TUES...AS HIGH MOVES FROM THE ARROWHEAD              
OF MN ON SUN...TO THE NE U.S. ON TUES. WITH LIMITED CLOUD                       
COVER...SUBSIDING WINDS...AND PWAT VALUES EXPECTED TO BE ABOUT 50               
PERCENT OF NORMAL...COULD SEE SOME COLD NIGHTS UNDER THE HIGH ON                
SUN/MON NIGHT. HAVE TRENDED THE LOWS DOWN INTO THE MID 40S FOR                  
INTERIOR LOCATIONS...BUT EXPECT THE TRADITIONAL COLD SPOTS TO BE                
EVEN COLDER. FUTURE SHIFTS WILL PROBABLY NEED TO ADJUST THE TEMPS               
DOWN FURTHER. HIGHS ON MON/TUES SHOULD BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW                
NORMAL WITH H850 TEMPS IN THE 10-12C RANGE.                                     
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION (FOR THE 00Z TAF ISSUANCE)...                                         
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS/LGT WINDS TO PREVAIL THIS FCST PD WITH HI PRES            
RDG/DRY AIRMASS REMAINING DOMINANT.                                             
&&                                                                              
.MARINE (FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)...                       
HIGH PRESSURE OVER SE QUEBEC WILL SHIFT EAST OVER THE NORTHEAST U.S.            
ON THURSDAY...ALLOWING WINDS TO SHIFT TO THE SOUTH AND INCREASE                 
THROUGH FRIDAY. THIS IS DUE TO AN APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM               
OVER CANADA AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT OVER THE NRN PLAINS ON FRIDAY.            
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO GET A LITTLE GUSTY ON FRIDAY...WITH GUSTS TO              
25KTS OVER EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR AND LAKE MICHIGAN. WITH THE FRONTAL            
PASSAGE LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY                
FROM THE WEST NORTHWEST UP TO 25 KNOTS. HIGH PRESSURE THEN MOVES                
OVER THE REGION FOR SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY AND KEEP WINDS LESS THAN             
20KTS.                                                                          
&&                                                                              
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                        
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM...AJ                                                        
LONG TERM...SRF                                                                 
AVIATION...KC                                                                   
MARINE...SRF                                                                    
</pre> mi                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
330 PM EDT TUE AUG 19 2008                                                      
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
19Z WATER VAPOR LOOP AND RUC 500MB HEIGHT ANALYSIS SHOWED UPPER                 
RIDGING FROM SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST...TROPICAL             
STORM FAY CROSSING SE FLORIDA...A 582 DAM LOW NEAR WICHITA FALLS                
TX...AND A TROUGH OVER THE NE PACIFIC INTO THE PACIFIC NW. UPPER MI             
LIES ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE UPPER RIDGE...WHICH FAVORS SUBSIDENCE              
AND HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC. CURRENTLY THIS HIGH IS CENTERED ALONG             
THE ERN LAKE SUPERIOR/ONTARIO SHORELINE. A LOT OF DRY AIR EXISTS                
NEAR THIS HIGH...NOTED ON TAMDAR SOUNDINGS FROM SAW AND CMX WHICH               
HAVE 30-40C DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS BETWEEN 850-700MB. MIXING OF THIS              
DRY AIR TO THE SURFACE HAS BEEN SOMEWHAT TROUBLESOME...THOUGH...DUE             
TO THE COLD AIR THAT MOVED IN LAST NIGHT. SOME LOCATIONS LAST NIGHT             
DROPPED INTO THE 30S...SUCH AS CHATHAM WHICH FELL TO 34. THIS COLD              
AIR EVEN GENERATED SOME LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS OVER NRN LAKE MI...BUT               
THESE HAVE SINCE DISSIPATED. TO OUR SW...ANOTHER BAND OF MOISTURE               
NOTED BY CLOUDS EXTENDS FROM DLH TO GRB. TAMDAR SOUNDING FROM RHI               
SHOWS THIS WITH A BIT MORE SATURATION BETWEEN 800-900MB. OTHER LOW              
CLOUDS EXIST DOWN NEAR MILWAUKEE. FARTHER TO THE S...UPPER LEVEL                
MOISTURE CAN BE SEEN STREAMING NORTHWARD FROM LOUISIANA INTO                    
MISSOURI ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE UPPER LOW. A FEW STORMS ARE ALSO               
NOTED IN LOUISIANA WHERE DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE 70S. WELL OFF TO THE              
WEST...STORMS ARE MARCHING ACROSS THE PACIFIC NW WITH THE INCOMING              
UPPER TROUGH.                                                                   
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH WED NIGHT)...                                      
QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THIS PERIOD...THANKS TO            
THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST SHIFTING OVER UPPER MI ON                
WED...RESULTING IN CONTINUED SUBSIDENCE. HOWEVER...THERE ARE A FEW              
ISSUES TO DEAL WITH...MAINLY CLOUDS AND TEMPS. THIS EVENING SHOULD              
GENERALLY BE CLEAR ACROSS THE CWA...THEN SOME INCREASING CLOUDS ARE             
EXPECTED OVER THE WESTERN U.P. AS RETURN FLOW BRINGS THE CLOUDS TO              
OUR SW INTO THE AREA. WHERE THESE CLOUDS MOVE IN WILL ALSO BE THE               
SAME AREA WHERE SOUTHERLY WINDS PICK UP TONIGHT...AND THEREFORE                 
FORECAST LOWS ARE SIMILAR TO GUIDANCE. OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF                 
UPPER MI WHERE SKIES ARE CLEAR...THE WINDS ARE GENERALLY LIGHT ALL              
NIGHT AND PRECIPITABLE WATER STAYS AROUND 0.50 INCH...EXPECTING                 
TEMPS TO GET CHILLY AGAIN. WENT BELOW ALL GUIDANCE GIVEN WHAT                   
HAPPENED LAST NIGHT SINCE SIMILAR CONDITIONS ARE PRESENT...EXCEPT               
THAT THE AIRMASS HAS MODIFIED SLIGHTLY SINCE YESTERDAY. RETURN FLOW             
CLOUDS SHOULD CONTINUE SHIFTING INTO THE CENTRAL U.P. ON WED...BUT              
NOT PREVENT A DECENT AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE FROM OCCURRING. THIS                    
SUNSHINE...COMBINED WITH 850MB TEMPS OF 14C EAST TO 16C WEST WILL               
BRING HIGHS INTO THE 70S AND 80S...COOLEST ALONG THE LAKE MI SHORE              
WITH ONSHORE WINDS AND WARMEST IN THE WESTERN U.P. WHERE THE DEEPEST            
MIXING IS EXPECTED.                                                             
FOR WED NIGHT...THE GFS/NAM/UKMET ALL DEPICT A SHRTWV MOVING ON TOP             
OF THE UPPER RIDGE. THIS SHRTWV SHOULD HAVE LITTLE IMPACT GIVEN THE             
DRY AIR IN PLACE...AND LIKELY ONLY PRODUCING A FEW CLOUDS. THEREFORE            
A DRY FORECAST REMAINS. A SOUTHERLY BREEZE CONTINUES IN THE WESTERN             
U.P....SO TEMPS WILL BE ON THE MILD SIDE (FOLLOWED A BLEND OF THE               
MET/MAV GUIDANCE). FOR THE EASTERN U.P....THERE ARE INDICATIONS THAT            
WINDS MAY DECOUPLE IN THE INLAND AREAS. HOWEVER...PRECIPITABLE WATER            
VALUES ARE BETWEEN 0.75 INCHES AND 1 INCH...SUGGESTING THE NIGHT                
SHOULD NOT BE NEARLY AS COLD AS THE LAST TWO. THEREFORE...HAVE LOWS             
INLAND DROPPING BELOW GUIDANCE TO AROUND 50.                                    
.LONG TERM (THU THROUGH NEXT TUE)...                                            
PERIOD BEGINS WITH REGION STILL UNDER THE UPPER RIDGE AND INFLUENCE             
OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE NE U.S. FARTHER WEST...LONGWAVE              
TROUGH WORKING INTO THE PACIFIC NW AT 00Z THURS...WHICH WILL BE THE             
NEXT WEATHER MAKER FOR THIS AREA AND BRING THE BEST CHANCE OF RAIN              
IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD.                                                         
THURS LOOKS TO BE DRY WITH REGION BETWEEN THE SFC LOW OVER CANADIAN             
ROCKIES AND WARM FRONT STRETCHING EAST ACROSS SRN CANADA...AND UPPER            
LOW THAT HAS BEEN LINGERING OVER THE SRN PLAINS FOR THE LAST COUPLE             
OF DAYS. DISTURBANCES COMING OUT OF THE UPPER LOW WILL AFFECT THE               
REGION AT A COUPLE DIFFERENT TIMES. FIRST WAVE COMES THROUGH EARLY              
ON THURS AND EXPECTED TO BE DRY...DUE TO LIMITED FORCING AND DRY AIR            
LINGERING OVER THE AREA FROM THE EXISTING HIGH. MOISTURE LOOKS TO               
STREAM INTO THE SRN PART OF THE CWA ON THURS AFTN AND CONTINUE                  
ACROSS THE REST OF THE CWA ON THURS NIGHT. THERE ARE SOME                       
DIFFERENCES IN THE 00Z ECMWF AND 00/12Z GFS RUNS...AS TO LIGHT PCPN             
ACROSS THE SRN PART OF THE CWA FOR THURS NIGHT. THE 00Z ECMWF/GFS DO            
BRING PCPN TO THE AREA...AS ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE AND H850-700                 
Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. BELIEVE THERE SHOULD              
BE ENOUGH MOISTURE TO SQUEEZE A SOME -SHRA OUT...SO HAVE ADDED                  
SLIGHT CHANCES TO THE SOUTH CENTRAL PART OF THE CWA.                            
FOR FRIDAY...PCPN CHANCES BECOME A LITTLE HARDER TO PINPOINT...AS               
UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO SHEAR OUT AND LINGERING ENERGY SLIDES NE                 
ACROSS THE ERN PART OF THE CWA. WITH THE MOISTURE ALREADY PRESENT               
AND WEAK OMEGA/QVECTOR FORCING ON GFS/ECMWF...FELT ADDING SLIGHT                
CHANCES TO EASTERN HALF OF CWA WAS WARRANTED. AS FOR THE WRN                    
HALF...WITH THE AREA BETWEEN THE WAVE TO THE EAST AND APPROACHING               
SFC LOW OVER LK WINNIPEG AND SFC COLD FRONT STRETCHING S ALONG THE              
RED RIVER VALLEY AND S TO KFSD AND INTO ERN NEB BETWEEN 18Z FRI AND             
00Z SAT...DONT REALLY SEE MUCH CHANCE OF PCPN AND MORE LIKELY JUST              
PARTLY SUNNY SKIES. THEREFORE...ADDED SLIGHT CHANCES FOR THE WRN                
THIRD DUE TO APPROACHING FRONT. WINDS WILL BE A LITTLE GUSTY FROM               
THE SOUTH AHEAD OF THE FRONT ON FRI...WHICH MAY CREATE A FEW MARINE             
HEADLINES. FORTUNATELY...GULF MOISTURE WORKING NORTH WITH THE WINDS             
SHOULD LIMIT ANY FIRE WX ISSUES WITH THE DRY WX OF LATE.                        
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION FAIRLY QUICKLY ON FRI NIGHT AND             
INTO SAT. INSTABILITY INCREASES ON FRI OVER THE WRN HALF OF THE                 
CWA...WITH MLCAPES AROUND 500-700 J/KG BY FRI EVENING. WITH THE                 
STRONG H850 JET...AROUND 40-45KTS AHEAD OF THE FRONT...AND 6-7C                 
H700-500 LAPSE RATES...EXPECT SOME RUMBLES OF THUNDER AS THE FRONT              
MOVES THROUGH. 0-6KM BULK SHEAR VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO BE AROUND                
35-40KTS...BUT WITH CAPE DIMINISHING DURING THE OVERNIGHT                       
HOURS...DOWN TO 200-400 J/KG AND VERY TALL/SKINNY...DONT REALLY                 
EXPECT ANYTHING SEVERE. BIGGEST THREAT WILL BE SOME GUSTY WINDS IF              
PCPN LOADING CAN BRING SOME OF THE WINDS ALOFT DOWN. OVERALL...WITH             
PWAT VALUES AROUND 1.5...WE SHOULD SEE SOME MUCH NEEDED RAIN ACROSS             
MOST OF THE REGION.                                                             
SAT NIGHT THROUGH TUES...EXTENDED MODELS IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT ON            
HIGH PRESSURE DROPPING SOUTH ACROSS REGION. AS THE UPPER LOW SHIFTS             
ACROSS THE AREA ON SUN...SHOULD PROBABLY SEE SOME LOW/MID CLOUDS                
ACROSS LK SUPERIOR AND OVER LAND LOCATIONS NEAR LK SUPERIOR. GFS HAS            
BEEN HINTING THAT A FEW SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP OVER THE FAR ERN PART OF            
THE CWA ON SUN...WHICH WOULDNT BE SURPRISING GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF                
MOISTURE AND PROXIMITY TO UPPER LOW...BUT DIDNT HAVE ENOUGH                     
CONFIDENCE TO PUT IT IN RIGHT NOW. DRIER AIR THEN WORKS INTO THE                
AREA FOR SUN NIGHT THROUGH TUES...AS HIGH MOVES FROM THE ARROWHEAD              
OF MN ON SUN...TO THE NE U.S. ON TUES. WITH LIMITED CLOUD                       
COVER...SUBSIDING WINDS...AND PWAT VALUES EXPECTED TO BE ABOUT 50               
PERCENT OF NORMAL...COULD SEE SOME COLD NIGHTS UNDER THE HIGH ON                
SUN/MON NIGHT. HAVE TRENDED THE LOWS DOWN INTO THE MID 40S FOR                  
INTERIOR LOCATIONS...BUT EXPECT THE TRADITIONAL COLD SPOTS TO BE                
EVEN COLDER. FUTURE SHIFTS WILL PROBABLY NEED TO ADJUST THE TEMPS               
DOWN FURTHER. HIGHS ON MON/TUES SHOULD BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW                
NORMAL WITH H850 TEMPS IN THE 10-12C RANGE.                                     
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION (FOR THE 18Z TAF ISSUANCE)...                                         
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR BOTH TAF SITES THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS            
WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL. THERE ARE TWO ITEMS OF SOME CONCERN.             
THE FIRST IS POTENTIAL FOR LLWS AT CMX BTWN 06-12Z...BUT WITH SFC               
WINDS INCREASING THROUGH THE NIGHT AND THE MAX WIND SPEED WITH THE              
SHEAR BTWN 25-30 KT...HAVE DISCOUNTED MENTIONING IT FOR NOW. THE                
SECOND ITEM OF CONCERN IS IF ANY LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS OVER NRN LAKE MI            
WILL HOLD TOGETHER THE REST OF THE AFTN...THEN UPSLOPE INTO SAW                 
AROUND MIDNIGHT. RIGHT NOW HAVE DISCOUNTED THE IDEA SINCE THE LAKE              
EFFECT CLOUDS ARE IN THE PROCESS OF DISSIPATING.                                
&&                                                                              
.MARINE (FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)...                       
HIGH PRESSURE OVER SE QUEBEC WILL SHIFT EAST OVER THE NORTHEAST U.S.            
ON THURSDAY...ALLOWING WINDS TO SHIFT TO THE SOUTH AND INCREASE                 
THROUGH FRIDAY. THIS IS DUE TO AN APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM               
OVER CANADA AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT OVER THE NRN PLAINS ON FRIDAY.            
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO GET A LITTLE GUSTY ON FRIDAY...WITH GUSTS TO              
25KTS OVER EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR AND LAKE MICHIGAN. WITH THE FRONTAL            
PASSAGE LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY                
FROM THE WEST NORTHWEST UP TO 25 KNOTS. HIGH PRESSURE THEN MOVES                
OVER THE REGION FOR SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY AND KEEP WINDS LESS THAN             
20KTS.                                                                          
&&                                                                              
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                        
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM...AJ                                                        
LONG TERM...SRF                                                                 
AVIATION...AJ                                                                   
MARINE...SRF                                                                    
</pre> mi                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
128 PM EDT TUE AUG 19 2008                                                      
UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR 18Z TAFS                                        
.SYNOPSIS... (ISSUED AT 420 AM EDT)                                             
IR SATELLITE AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE                     
NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES...WITH ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC            
STATES. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING DOMINATES THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES                 
EXCEPT FOR A CUTOFF LOW OVER THE OK-TX PANHANDLES. A SECOND TROUGH              
IS JUST OFFSHORE THE WESTERN UNITED STATES. AT THE SURFACE...LOW                
PRESSURE MOVING OVER THE ST LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY HAS A COLD FRONT              
EXTENDING ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES INTO LOWER MICHIGAN. THIS              
COLD FRONT BROUGHT SHARPLY COLDER TEMPERATURES AND LITTLE                       
PRECIPITATION TO OUR AREA YESTERDAY...BUT WAS RESPONSIBLE FOR SOME              
ISOLATED WIND AND HAIL REPORTS IN NEW YORK AND NEW ENGLAND YESTERDAY            
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF LAKE SUPERIOR IS                  
SLOWLY DRIFTING SOUTH AND EXTENDING INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES.               
TROPICAL STORM FAY IS SLOWLY MOVING NORTH IN THE GULF OF                        
MEXICO...BETWEEN THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND KEYS.                                
&&                                                                              
.DISCUSSION... (ISSUED AT 420 AM EDT)                                           
QUIET PATTERN WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD THROUGH THE WEEK RESULTS              
IN ONLY MINOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST.                                          
LESS CONFIDENT ABOUT LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT ACROSS THE WEST AS                
MODELS ARE NOW SHOWING VARYING AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE FOR THAT PORTION             
OF THE FORECAST AREA. LOW TO MID LEVEL MOISTURE THAT WAS PREVIOUSLY             
SHOWN MOVING INTO THE AREA DURING THAT TIME PERIOD IS NOT AS                    
PREVALENT IN THE GFS...ALTHOUGH THE NAM STILL HAS THIS MOISTURE                 
PRESENT. DECIDED TO NUDGE LOWS DOWN A LITTLE IN THE WEST IN CASE                
CONDITIONS ARE MORE DRY THAN ORIGINALLY FORECAST AND RADIATIONAL                
COOLING CAN OCCUR. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES SHOULD THEN DOMINATE WED AND              
THURS...WITH TEMPERATURES REMAINING AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.                
UPPER LEVEL LOW CURRENTLY OVER TEXAS IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN NEARLY               
STATIONARY OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS BEFORE SLOWLY DRIFTING NORTH AND              
SHEARING APART ON FRIDAY. ONE SHORTWAVE IS EXPECTED TO ROTATE                   
THROUGH THE AREA ON THURSDAY MORNING...BUT WITH DRY AIR ENTRENCHED              
NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED. HOWEVER...A SECOND SHORTWAVE MOVING               
OUT FROM THE UPPER LOW SHOULD MOVE THROUGH THE AREA LATE THURSDAY               
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. MOISTURE FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO IS EXPECTED TO              
ACCOMPANY THIS SHORTWAVE...AND THIS COULD ALLOW FOR SOME                        
PRECIPITATION IN ADVANCE OF THE APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH FROM THE               
WEST. ADDED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS TO THE WEST HALF OF UPPER MI FOR                 
FRIDAY MORNING TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS FEATURE. GOING FORECAST FOR POPS             
WITH THE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO                   
SATURDAY STILL APPEAR FINE. WAS TEMPTED TO INCREASE POPS FOR FRIDAY             
EVENING...BUT FORCING REMAINS A POTENTIAL LIMITING FACTOR WITH THE              
SYSTEM. GFS AND ECMWF SHOW STRONG Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE AND 500MB                
VORTICITY ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS FRIDAY MORNING...BUT SHOW THESE            
QUANTITIES DIMINISHING AS THE SYSTEM PASSES OVER THE AREA. BEST                 
CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION FRIDAY NIGHT MAY LIKELY END UP OVER LAKE               
SUPERIOR OR FARTHER TO THE NORTH. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL THEN               
COME TO AN END SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS THE DRY SLOT MOVES THROUGH. 00Z            
GFS IS A TOUCH MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH THE TIMING OF THE FRONTAL                  
PASSAGE...BUT WILL NOT CHANGE THE END TIME OF PRECIPITATION CHANCES             
IN THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME.                                                   
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION (FOR THE 18Z TAF ISSUANCE)...                                         
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR BOTH TAF SITES THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS            
WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL. THERE ARE TWO ITEMS OF SOME CONCERN.             
THE FIRST IS POTENTIAL FOR LLWS AT CMX BTWN 06-12Z...BUT WITH SFC               
WINDS INCREASING THROUGH THE NIGHT AND THE MAX WIND SPEED WITH THE              
SHEAR BTWN 25-30 KT...HAVE DISCOUNTED MENTIONING IT FOR NOW. THE                
SECOND ITEM OF CONCERN IS IF ANY LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS OVER NRN LAKE MI            
WILL HOLD TOGETHER THE REST OF THE AFTN...THEN UPSLOPE INTO SAW                 
AROUND MIDNIGHT. RIGHT NOW HAVE DISCOUNTED THE IDEA SINCE THE LAKE              
EFFECT CLOUDS ARE IN THE PROCESS OF DISSIPATING.                                
&&                                                                              
.MARINE (FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)...                       
AS HIGH PRES JUST N OF LAKE SUPERIOR MOVES TO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES             
BY WED MORNING...ERLY WINDS THIS MORNING WILL VEER SRLY BY WED                  
MORNING. SPEEDS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 10-20KT RANGE THOUGH THERE             
WILL BE GUSTS TO AROUND 25KT...MAINLY OVER FAR WRN LAKE SUPERIOR.  S            
TO SE WINDS WILL THEN PERSIST THRU FRI AS THE HIGH SHIFTS TO THE E              
COAST AND LOW PRES ORGANIZES OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. WINDS OF                 
10-20KT WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 25KT ARE EXPECTED DURING THIS TIME WITH            
THE HIGHEST SPEEDS OVER EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR. AHEAD OF AN                      
APPROACHING COLD FRONT...WIND GUSTS COULD REACH UP TO 30 KT FRI/FRI             
NIGHT OVER EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR. IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT                 
SAT...MUCH OF LAKE SUPERIOR SHOULD SEE WEST WIND GUSTS UP TO 25                 
KT...ESPECIALLY OVER THE WEST HALF OF THE LAKE.                                 
&&                                                                              
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                        
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SYNOPSIS...TAG                                                                  
DISCUSSION...TAG                                                                
AVIATION...AJ                                                                   
MARINE...ROLFSON                                                                
</pre> mi                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
735 AM EDT TUE AUG 19 2008                                                      
UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR 12Z TAFS                                        
.SYNOPSIS... (ISSUED AT 420 AM EDT)                                             
IR SATELLITE AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE                     
NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES...WITH ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC            
STATES. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING DOMINATES THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES                 
EXCEPT FOR A CUTOFF LOW OVER THE OK-TX PANHANDLES. A SECOND TROUGH              
IS JUST OFFSHORE THE WESTERN UNITED STATES. AT THE SURFACE...LOW                
PRESSURE MOVING OVER THE ST LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY HAS A COLD FRONT              
EXTENDING ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES INTO LOWER MICHIGAN. THIS              
COLD FRONT BROUGHT SHARPLY COLDER TEMPERATURES AND LITTLE                       
PRECIPITATION TO OUR AREA YESTERDAY...BUT WAS RESPONSIBLE FOR SOME              
ISOLATED WIND AND HAIL REPORTS IN NEW YORK AND NEW ENGLAND YESTERDAY            
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF LAKE SUPERIOR IS                  
SLOWLY DRIFTING SOUTH AND EXTENDING INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES.               
TROPICAL STORM FAY IS SLOWLY MOVING NORTH IN THE GULF OF                        
MEXICO...BETWEEN THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND KEYS.                                
&&                                                                              
.DISCUSSION... (ISSUED AT 420 AM EDT)                                           
QUIET PATTERN WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD THROUGH THE WEEK RESULTS              
IN ONLY MINOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST.                                          
LESS CONFIDENT ABOUT LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT ACROSS THE WEST AS                
MODELS ARE NOW SHOWING VARYING AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE FOR THAT PORTION             
OF THE FORECAST AREA. LOW TO MID LEVEL MOISTURE THAT WAS PREVIOUSLY             
SHOWN MOVING INTO THE AREA DURING THAT TIME PERIOD IS NOT AS                    
PREVALENT IN THE GFS...ALTHOUGH THE NAM STILL HAS THIS MOISTURE                 
PRESENT. DECIDED TO NUDGE LOWS DOWN A LITTLE IN THE WEST IN CASE                
CONDITIONS ARE MORE DRY THAN ORIGINALLY FORECAST AND RADIATIONAL                
COOLING CAN OCCUR. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES SHOULD THEN DOMINATE WED AND              
THURS...WITH TEMPERATURES REMAINING AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.                
UPPER LEVEL LOW CURRENTLY OVER TEXAS IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN NEARLY               
STATIONARY OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS BEFORE SLOWLY DRIFTING NORTH AND              
SHEARING APART ON FRIDAY. ONE SHORTWAVE IS EXPECTED TO ROTATE                   
THROUGH THE AREA ON THURSDAY MORNING...BUT WITH DRY AIR ENTRENCHED              
NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED. HOWEVER...A SECOND SHORTWAVE MOVING               
OUT FROM THE UPPER LOW SHOULD MOVE THROUGH THE AREA LATE THURSDAY               
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. MOISTURE FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO IS EXPECTED TO              
ACCOMPANY THIS SHORTWAVE...AND THIS COULD ALLOW FOR SOME                        
PRECIPITATION IN ADVANCE OF THE APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH FROM THE               
WEST. ADDED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS TO THE WEST HALF OF UPPER MI FOR                 
FRIDAY MORNING TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS FEATURE. GOING FORECAST FOR POPS             
WITH THE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO                   
SATURDAY STILL APPEAR FINE. WAS TEMPTED TO INCREASE POPS FOR FRIDAY             
EVENING...BUT FORCING REMAINS A POTENTIAL LIMITING FACTOR WITH THE              
SYSTEM. GFS AND ECMWF SHOW STRONG Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE AND 500MB                
VORTICITY ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS FRIDAY MORNING...BUT SHOW THESE            
QUANTITIES DIMINISHING AS THE SYSTEM PASSES OVER THE AREA. BEST                 
CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION FRIDAY NIGHT MAY LIKELY END UP OVER LAKE               
SUPERIOR OR FARTHER TO THE NORTH. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL THEN               
COME TO AN END SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS THE DRY SLOT MOVES THROUGH. 00Z            
GFS IS A TOUCH MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH THE TIMING OF THE FRONTAL                  
PASSAGE...BUT WILL NOT CHANGE THE END TIME OF PRECIPITATION CHANCES             
IN THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME.                                                   
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION (FOR THE 12Z TAF ISSUANCE)...                                         
SHALLOW MOISTURE IN ERLY UPSLOPE FLOW OFF LAKE SUPERIOR WILL RESULT             
IN OCCASIONAL MVFR CIGS AT KCMX FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF HRS.                     
OTHERWISE...DRYING AIRMASS AIDED BY DIURNAL HEATING/MIXING WILL                 
ENSURE VFR CONDITIONS TODAY AT KCMX/KSAW. VFR CONDITIONS WILL THEN              
PERSIST THRU THE END OF THIS FCST PERIOD.                                       
&&                                                                              
.MARINE (FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)...                       
AS HIGH PRES JUST N OF LAKE SUPERIOR MOVES TO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES             
BY WED MORNING...ERLY WINDS THIS MORNING WILL VEER SRLY BY WED                  
MORNING. SPEEDS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 10-20KT RANGE THOUGH THERE             
WILL BE GUSTS TO AROUND 25KT...MAINLY OVER FAR WRN LAKE SUPERIOR.  S            
TO SE WINDS WILL THEN PERSIST THRU FRI AS THE HIGH SHIFTS TO THE E              
COAST AND LOW PRES ORGANIZES OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. WINDS OF                 
10-20KT WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 25KT ARE EXPECTED DURING THIS TIME WITH            
THE HIGHEST SPEEDS OVER EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR. AHEAD OF AN                      
APPROACHING COLD FRONT...WIND GUSTS COULD REACH UP TO 30 KT FRI/FRI             
NIGHT OVER EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR. IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT                 
SAT...MUCH OF LAKE SUPERIOR SHOULD SEE WEST WIND GUSTS UP TO 25                 
KT...ESPECIALLY OVER THE WEST HALF OF THE LAKE.                                 
&&                                                                              
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                        
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SYNOPSIS...TAG                                                                  
DISCUSSION...TAG                                                                
AVIATION...ROLFSON                                                              
MARINE...ROLFSON                                                                
</pre> mi                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
420 AM EDT TUE AUG 19 2008                                                      
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
IR SATELLITE AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE                     
NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES...WITH ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC            
STATES. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING DOMINATES THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES                 
EXCEPT FOR A CUTOFF LOW OVER THE OK-TX PANHANDLES. A SECOND TROUGH              
IS JUST OFFSHORE THE WESTERN UNITED STATES. AT THE SURFACE...LOW                
PRESSURE MOVING OVER THE ST LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY HAS A COLD FRONT              
EXTENDING ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES INTO LOWER MICHIGAN. THIS              
COLD FRONT BROUGHT SHARPLY COLDER TEMPERATURES AND LITTLE                       
PRECIPITATION TO OUR AREA YESTERDAY...BUT WAS RESPONSIBLE FOR SOME              
ISOLATED WIND AND HAIL REPORTS IN NEW YORK AND NEW ENGLAND YESTERDAY            
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF LAKE SUPERIOR IS                  
SLOWLY DRIFTING SOUTH AND EXTENDING INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES.               
TROPICAL STORM FAY IS SLOWLY MOVING NORTH IN THE GULF OF                        
MEXICO...BETWEEN THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND KEYS.                                
&&                                                                              
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
QUIET PATTERN WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD THROUGH THE WEEK RESULTS              
IN ONLY MINOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST.                                          
LESS CONFIDENT ABOUT LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT ACROSS THE WEST AS                
MODELS ARE NOW SHOWING VARYING AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE FOR THAT PORTION             
OF THE FORECAST AREA. LOW TO MID LEVEL MOISTURE THAT WAS PREVIOUSLY             
SHOWN MOVING INTO THE AREA DURING THAT TIME PERIOD IS NOT AS                    
PREVALENT IN THE GFS...ALTHOUGH THE NAM STILL HAS THIS MOISTURE                 
PRESENT. DECIDED TO NUDGE LOWS DOWN A LITTLE IN THE WEST IN CASE                
CONDITIONS ARE MORE DRY THAN ORIGINALLY FORECAST AND RADIATIONAL                
COOLING CAN OCCUR. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES SHOULD THEN DOMINATE WED AND              
THURS...WITH TEMPERATURES REMAINING AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.                
UPPER LEVEL LOW CURRENTLY OVER TEXAS IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN NEARLY               
STATIONARY OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS BEFORE SLOWLY DRIFTING NORTH AND              
SHEARING APART ON FRIDAY. ONE SHORTWAVE IS EXPECTED TO ROTATE                   
THROUGH THE AREA ON THURSDAY MORNING...BUT WITH DRY AIR ENTRENCHED              
NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED. HOWEVER...A SECOND SHORTWAVE MOVING               
OUT FROM THE UPPER LOW SHOULD MOVE THROUGH THE AREA LATE THURSDAY               
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. MOISTURE FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO IS EXPECTED TO              
ACCOMPANY THIS SHORTWAVE...AND THIS COULD ALLOW FOR SOME                        
PRECIPITATION IN ADVANCE OF THE APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH FROM THE               
WEST. ADDED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS TO THE WEST HALF OF UPPER MI FOR                 
FRIDAY MORNING TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS FEATURE. GOING FORECAST FOR POPS             
WITH THE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO                   
SATURDAY STILL APPEAR FINE. WAS TEMPTED TO INCREASE POPS FOR FRIDAY             
EVENING...BUT FORCING REMAINS A POTENTIAL LIMITING FACTOR WITH THE              
SYSTEM. GFS AND ECMWF SHOW STRONG Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE AND 500MB                
VORTICITY ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS FRIDAY MORNING...BUT SHOW THESE            
QUANTITIES DIMINISHING AS THE SYSTEM PASSES OVER THE AREA. BEST                 
CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION FRIDAY NIGHT MAY LIKELY END UP OVER LAKE               
SUPERIOR OR FARTHER TO THE NORTH. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL THEN               
COME TO AN END SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS THE DRY SLOT MOVES THROUGH. 00Z            
GFS IS A TOUCH MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH THE TIMING OF THE FRONTAL                  
PASSAGE...BUT WILL NOT CHANGE THE END TIME OF PRECIPITATION CHANCES             
IN THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME.                                                   
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION (FOR THE 06Z TAF ISSUANCE)...                                         
AS LLVL FLOW VEERS TO MORE ESE ARND HI PRES BLDG INTO ERN LK SUP...             
EXPECT SOME LO CLDS WITH MVFR/IFR CIGS AND PSBLY SOME FOG TO DVLP AT            
CMX WITH UPSLOPE WIND COMPONENT UNDER LO INVRN SHOWN ON 00Z TAMDAR              
SDNG AT SAW. KEPT SAW VFR WITH POSSIBLE MVFR UNDER NOT SO FVRBL ELY             
WIND. DRYING AIRMASS/DIURNAL HTG TDAY WL ENSURE VFR CONDITIONS THRU             
THIS EVNG AFT ANY LO CLD AT CMX DSPTS THIS MRNG.                                
&&                                                                              
.MARINE (FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)...                       
AS HIGH PRES JUST N OF LAKE SUPERIOR MOVES TO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES             
BY WED MORNING...ERLY WINDS THIS MORNING WILL VEER SRLY BY WED                  
MORNING. SPEEDS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 10-20KT RANGE THOUGH THERE             
WILL BE GUSTS TO AROUND 25KT...MAINLY OVER FAR WRN LAKE SUPERIOR.  S            
TO SE WINDS WILL THEN PERSIST THRU FRI AS THE HIGH SHIFTS TO THE E              
COAST AND LOW PRES ORGANIZES OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. WINDS OF                 
10-20KT WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 25KT ARE EXPECTED DURING THIS TIME WITH            
THE HIGHEST SPEEDS OVER EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR. AHEAD OF AN                      
APPROACHING COLD FRONT...WIND GUSTS COULD REACH UP TO 30 KT FRI/FRI             
NIGHT OVER EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR. IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT                 
SAT...MUCH OF LAKE SUPERIOR SHOULD SEE WEST WIND GUSTS UP TO 25                 
KT...ESPECIALLY OVER THE WEST HALF OF THE LAKE.                                 
&&                                                                              
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                        
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SYNOPSIS...TAG                                                                  
DISCUSSION...TAG                                                                
AVIATION...KC                                                                   
MARINE...ROLFSON                                                                
</pre> mi                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN                              
1234 PM CDT WED AUG 20 2008                                                     
.AVIATION... /18Z TAF ISSUANCE/                                                 
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL MOVE ONLY A                    
LITTLE TO THE EAST DURING THE TAF PERIOD. SOUTHERLY SURFACE WINDS               
ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE HIGH WILL INCREASE INTO THE 15 TO 25 KNOT               
RANGE OVER WESTERN MN THIS AFTERNOON AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT                   
TIGHTENS AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT OVER MT/WY. THE GRADIENT WILL                    
BECOME EVEN STRONGER ON THURSDAY WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS OF 20 TO 30               
KNOTS LIKELY BY LATE MORNING FOR KAXN AND KRWF WITH 10 TO 20 KNOTS              
ELSEWHERE. STRATUS THAT SPREAD ACROSS WEST CENTRAL WI OVERNIGHT                 
HAS DIMINISHED AT KRNH AND SHOULD BE BREAKING UP AT KEAU AT THE                 
START OF THE TAF. HOWEVER...CU RULE IS NEGATIVE THIS AFTERNOON AND              
BKN VFR CUMULUS IS FORECAST.                                                    
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 345 AM CDT WED AUG 20 2008/                         
PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN IS CHANCE FOR MORE WIDESPREAD SHRA/TSRA                
ACTIVITY RETURNING TO THE AREA THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY                
AS TWO SEPARATE DISTURBANCES IMPACT THE REGION. LATEST WATER VAPOR              
IMAGERY AND RUC UPPER AIR ANALYSES SHOW BOTH OF THESE FEATURES                  
QUITE WELL. THE FIRST ITEM OF CONCERN IS THE UPPER LOW ROTATING                 
NEAR THE TX/OK BORDER... WHICH IS PROGGED TO LIFT NORTH OVER THE                
NEXT 36 HOURS... WORKING INTO THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN CWFA                     
THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE SECOND FEATURE OF INTEREST IS               
THE VIGOROUS UPPER LOW APPROACHING THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST... WHICH               
IS EXPECTED TO PUSH EASTWARD AND WORK INTO THE WESTERN CWFA ON                  
FRIDAY. THE 00Z GFS AND NAM ARE IN REMARKABLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON                 
THE GENERAL EVOLUTION AND TIMING OF THINGS THROUGH THE PERIOD...                
AND THE SREF ALSO MATCHED THINGS FAIRLY WELL... SO ESSENTIALLY                  
USED A BLEND OF GFS AND NAM FOR THE FORECAST.                                   
HAD A BIT OF A SURPRISE WITH A FEW SHRA/TSRA OVER THE CENTRAL                   
PORTION OF THE AREA YESTERDAY... WHERE MLCAPES OF 1000-1500 J/KG                
COMBINED WITH SOME DECENT LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE TO GET SOME                     
CONVECTION GOING. ALTHOUGH TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS WILL BE                   
SIMILAR TODAY... AND THE NAM SUGGESTS MLCAPES OF 500-1000 J/KG                  
OVER PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN FORECAST AREA... THERE DOES              
NOT APPEAR TO BE AS WELL DEFINED OF A CONVERGENCE AXIS EITHER IN                
THE CURRENT OBSERVATIONS OR THE FORECAST WIND FIELDS. SO... WILL                
STICK WITH THE GOING DRY FORECAST FOR TODAY. IF SOMETHING WERE TO               
DEVELOP... IT APPEARS THE BEST CHANCE WOULD BE OVER WEST CENTRAL                
WISCONSIN WHICH WILL BE IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE DEWPOINT                     
GRADIENT AND HAVE THE BEST CHANCE TO SEE SOME LOW LEVEL                         
ANOMALIES IN THE WIND FIELDS. THE GFS AND NAM ALSO SHOW BETTER LOW              
LEVEL MOISTURE AND LESS CAPPING IN THAT AREA... SO THE DAY SHIFT                
MAY NEED TO AT LEAST KEEP AN EYE OUT FOR A STRAY SHRA DURING THE                
AFTERNOON IN THAT AREA. OTHERWISE... RIDGING AND A GENERALLY DRY                
PROFILE LOOK TO REIGN TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING... WITH WARM               
AND DRY WEATHER EXPECTED.                                                       
BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON THE GFS AND NAM SUGGEST THE UPPER LOW OVER                
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL BE LIFTING NORTH TOWARD SOUTHEAST                      
MINNESOTA. A FAIRLY SUBSTANTIAL JUMP IN PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES               
IS ADVERTISED AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE AREA... ALONG WITH THE              
ATTENDANT HEIGHT FALLS AND 925-700MB WARM ADVECTION. INCLUDED                   
CHANCE POPS OVER THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN PORTION OF THE AREA FROM              
THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY NIGHT AS THIS SYSTEM LIFTS NORTH               
THROUGH THE AREA. LATE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING EYES               
TURN TOWARD THE STRONG SHORTWAVE THAT WILL BE APPROACHING FROM THE              
NORTHERN PLAINS. THIS FEATURE WILL DRIVE A ROBUST COLD FRONT                    
THROUGH THE REGION FRIDAY AND FRIDAY EVENING... BRINGING WITH IT A              
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS IT DOES SO. INCLUDING SOME              
LOW POPS OVER THE NORTHWEST FOR LATE FRIDAY NIGHT... THEN SHIFTED               
THESE EASTWARD FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. GIVEN THE GOOD MODEL                
AGREEMENT AND STRONG FORCING EXPECTED... INCLUDED 50 POPS OVER THE              
EASTERN PORTION OF THE AREA FRIDAY EVENING AS THE FRONT SWINGS                  
THROUGH THE AREA. INITIATION MAY TAKE A BIT OF TIME TO GET GOING                
GIVEN PROGGED 700MB TEMPERATURES NEAR 12C OVER THE WESTERN CWFA                 
AHEAD OF THE FRONT FRIDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON... HENCE KEPT POPS              
A BIT LOWER THERE.                                                              
THERE STILL APPEARS TO BE SOME POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER AS THE              
SHORTWAVE AND COLD FRONT MOVE THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY AFTERNOON                 
AND EVENING. THE LIMITING FACTOR AT THIS POINT APPEARS TO BE                    
INSTABILITY... WITH THE GFS AND NAM BOTH SHOWING MLCAPES OF                     
500-1500 J/KG AHEAD OF THE FRONT. HOWEVER... WIND FIELDS ARE                    
FORECAST TO BE FAIRLY STRONG WITH DEEP LAYER SHEAR VALUES OF                    
AROUND 40KT ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT... AND 0-2KM SHEAR OF                  
AROUND 25KT. AT THIS POINT... IT WOULD APPEAR THAT THE MAIN SEVERE              
WEATHER THREAT WOULD BE WIND WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF A LINE OF                  
STORMS DEVELOPING... ALTHOUGH LARGE HAIL COULD ALSO BE POSSIBLE                 
GIVEN THE FORECAST DEEP LAYER SHEAR VALUES AND THE POTENTIAL FOR                
ROTATING UPDRAFTS... PARTICULARLY EARLY ON BEFORE THINGS POSSIBLY               
BECOME LINEAR IN NATURE. THINGS WILL BEAR SOME WATCHING OVER THE                
NEXT DAY OR SO AS THIS SYSTEM TAKES SHAPE.                                      
MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE POPS INTO SATURDAY MORNING TO                     
ACCOUNT FOR LATEST FRONTAL TIMING FROM THE MODELS... BUT GENERALLY              
MADE ONLY MINIMAL CHANGES BEYOND FRIDAY EVENING.                                
&&                                                                              
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
MN...NONE.                                                                      
WI...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
RAH/TRH                                                                         
</pre> mn                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN                              
628 AM CDT WED AUG 20 2008                                                      
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN IS CHANCE FOR MORE WIDESPREAD SHRA/TSRA                
ACTIVITY RETURNING TO THE AREA THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY                
AS TWO SEPARATE DISTURBANCES IMPACT THE REGION. LATEST WATER VAPOR              
IMAGERY AND RUC UPPER AIR ANALYSES SHOW BOTH OF THESE FEATURES                  
QUITE WELL. THE FIRST ITEM OF CONCERN IS THE UPPER LOW ROTATING                 
NEAR THE TX/OK BORDER... WHICH IS PROGGED TO LIFT NORTH OVER THE                
NEXT 36 HOURS... WORKING INTO THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN CWFA                     
THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE SECOND FEATURE OF INTEREST IS               
THE VIGOROUS UPPER LOW APPROACHING THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST... WHICH               
IS EXPECTED TO PUSH EASTWARD AND WORK INTO THE WESTERN CWFA ON                  
FRIDAY. THE 00Z GFS AND NAM ARE IN REMARKABLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON                 
THE GENERAL EVOLUTION AND TIMING OF THINGS THROUGH THE PERIOD...                
AND THE SREF ALSO MATCHED THINGS FAIRLY WELL... SO ESSENTIALLY                  
USED A BLEND OF GFS AND NAM FOR THE FORECAST.                                   
HAD A BIT OF A SURPRISE WITH A FEW SHRA/TSRA OVER THE CENTRAL                   
PORTION OF THE AREA YESTERDAY... WHERE MLCAPES OF 1000-1500 J/KG                
COMBINED WITH SOME DECENT LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE TO GET SOME                     
CONVECTION GOING. ALTHOUGH TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS WILL BE                   
SIMILAR TODAY... AND THE NAM SUGGESTS MLCAPES OF 500-1000 J/KG                  
OVER PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN FORECAST AREA... THERE DOES              
NOT APPEAR TO BE AS WELL DEFINED OF A CONVERGENCE AXIS EITHER IN                
THE CURRENT OBSERVATIONS OR THE FORECAST WIND FIELDS. SO... WILL                
STICK WITH THE GOING DRY FORECAST FOR TODAY. IF SOMETHING WERE TO               
DEVELOP... IT APPEARS THE BEST CHANCE WOULD BE OVER WEST CENTRAL                
WISCONSIN WHICH WILL BE IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE DEWPOINT                     
GRADIENT AND HAVE THE BEST CHANCE TO SEE SOME LOW LEVEL                         
ANOMALIES IN THE WIND FIELDS. THE GFS AND NAM ALSO SHOW BETTER LOW              
LEVEL MOISTURE AND LESS CAPPING IN THAT AREA... SO THE DAY SHIFT                
MAY NEED TO AT LEAST KEEP AN EYE OUT FOR A STRAY SHRA DURING THE                
AFTERNOON IN THAT AREA. OTHERWISE... RIDGING AND A GENERALLY DRY                
PROFILE LOOK TO REIGN TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING... WITH WARM               
AND DRY WEATHER EXPECTED.                                                       
BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON THE GFS AND NAM SUGGEST THE UPPER LOW OVER                
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL BE LIFTING NORTH TOWARD SOUTHEAST                      
MINNESOTA. A FAIRLY SUBSTANTIAL JUMP IN PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES               
IS ADVERTISED AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE AREA... ALONG WITH THE              
ATTENDANT HEIGHT FALLS AND 925-700MB WARM ADVECTION. INCLUDED                   
CHANCE POPS OVER THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN PORTION OF THE AREA FROM              
THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY NIGHT AS THIS SYSTEM LIFTS NORTH               
THROUGH THE AREA. LATE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING EYES               
TURN TOWARD THE STRONG SHORTWAVE THAT WILL BE APPROACHING FROM THE              
NORTHERN PLAINS. THIS FEATURE WILL DRIVE A ROBUST COLD FRONT                    
THROUGH THE REGION FRIDAY AND FRIDAY EVENING... BRINGING WITH IT A              
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS IT DOES SO. INCLUDING SOME              
LOW POPS OVER THE NORTHWEST FOR LATE FRIDAY NIGHT... THEN SHIFTED               
THESE EASTWARD FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. GIVEN THE GOOD MODEL                
AGREEMENT AND STRONG FORCING EXPECTED... INCLUDED 50 POPS OVER THE              
EASTERN PORTION OF THE AREA FRIDAY EVENING AS THE FRONT SWINGS                  
THROUGH THE AREA. INITIATION MAY TAKE A BIT OF TIME TO GET GOING                
GIVEN PROGGED 700MB TEMPERATURES NEAR 12C OVER THE WESTERN CWFA                 
AHEAD OF THE FRONT FRIDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON... HENCE KEPT POPS              
A BIT LOWER THERE.                                                              
THERE STILL APPEARS TO BE SOME POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER AS THE              
SHORTWAVE AND COLD FRONT MOVE THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY AFTERNOON                 
AND EVENING. THE LIMITING FACTOR AT THIS POINT APPEARS TO BE                    
INSTABILITY... WITH THE GFS AND NAM BOTH SHOWING MLCAPES OF                     
500-1500 J/KG AHEAD OF THE FRONT. HOWEVER... WIND FIELDS ARE                    
FORECAST TO BE FAIRLY STRONG WITH DEEP LAYER SHEAR VALUES OF                    
AROUND 40KT ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT... AND 0-2KM SHEAR OF                  
AROUND 25KT. AT THIS POINT... IT WOULD APPEAR THAT THE MAIN SEVERE              
WEATHER THREAT WOULD BE WIND WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF A LINE OF                  
STORMS DEVELOPING... ALTHOUGH LARGE HAIL COULD ALSO BE POSSIBLE                 
GIVEN THE FORECAST DEEP LAYER SHEAR VALUES AND THE POTENTIAL FOR                
ROTATING UPDRAFTS... PARTICULARLY EARLY ON BEFORE THINGS POSSIBLY               
BECOME LINEAR IN NATURE. THINGS WILL BEAR SOME WATCHING OVER THE                
NEXT DAY OR SO AS THIS SYSTEM TAKES SHAPE.                                      
MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE POPS INTO SATURDAY MORNING TO                     
ACCOUNT FOR LATEST FRONTAL TIMING FROM THE MODELS... BUT GENERALLY              
MADE ONLY MINIMAL CHANGES BEYOND FRIDAY EVENING.                                
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION.../12Z TAF ISSUANCE/                                                  
SFC HIGH PRESSURE MOVING GRADUALLY EAST OVER ERN WI...WITH                      
STRATUS-CONTAMINATED RETURN FLOW IN WRN WI AND SE MN. STRATUS DOWN              
TO LIFR IN PLACES OF SW WI AND NE IA....WITH IFR/MVFR BEING MORE                
COMMON. AS IT MOVES NORTHWARD...THE STRATUS FIELD SHOULD BEGIN TO               
RETREAT SLIGHTLY IN AREAL COVERAGE...LIFT...AND SCATTER AFTER 13Z.              
TEMPORARY BROKEN CIGS ARE POSSIBLE AS IT DOES THIS AT WI TAF                    
SITES. LOCAL HIGH RES MODEL 950MB RH FIELD MATCHES UP WELL WITH                 
CURRENT DEPICTION OF LOW CLOUDS AND THIS DOES NOT ADVECT HIGH RH                
LEVELS INTO MSP THIS MORNING. BUT SOME FRINGE FEW-SCT 2.5 TO 3.5                
KFT STRATOCU SEEM PLAUSIBLE DURING THE MID TO LATE MORNING.                     
WIND ARE THE OTHER CONCERN IN THE TAFS TODAY. THESE SRLY WINDS                  
WILL BE ON THE CLIMB FAIRLY QUICKLY AT WRN MN TAF SITES THANKS TO               
THE GRADIENT ALREADY IN PLACE AND MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES TO START                   
MIXING. AT OTHER SITES...WIND SPEEDS MAY BE SLOW TO GO AT FIRST                 
BUT BY AFTN 10 KT PLUS WINDS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL SITES...WITH                   
GUSTINESS AT MN SITES. MPX VAD PROFILE ALREADY INDICATING NEAR 20               
KT FLOW AT 2 KFT WHICH SHOULD BE MIXABLE TODAY. SO HAVE BUMPED UP               
GUSTS THERE AND INCREMENTED UP FOR THE FURTHER WEST STC AND                     
ESPECIALLY RWF AND AXN. GUSTS SHOULD DROP DURING THE EVE BUT                    
SUSTAINED WINDS WILL BE SLOW TO DECREASE AT MN SITES GIVEN THE                  
GRADIENT. LLWS POSSIBLE AT WRN MN TAF SITES TONIGHT...BUT SFC WIND              
SHOULD BE STRONG ENOUGH TO PREVENT A SHARP VERTICAL PROFILE CHANGE              
WORTH MENTIONING IN THE AXN AND RWF TAFS.                                       
&&                                                                              
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
MN...NONE.                                                                      
WI...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
TRH/MTF                                                                         
</pre> mn                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN                              
1137 PM CDT MON AUG 18 2008                                                     
.UPDATE...FOR 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW                                     
&&                                                                              
.DISCUSSION.../ISSUE 230 PM CDT MON AUG 18 2008/                                
WARM AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES IN WSW FLOW AHEAD OF                                
WEAK BACKDOOR COOL FRONT WHICH HAS BEEN SAGGING INTO CENTRAL MN.                
STILL LITTLE SIGN OF ANY CUMULUS VICINITY OF FRONT...AND                        
CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURE HAS BEEN REACHED. WV IMAGERY DOES SHW A                  
COUPLE OF VERY WEAK IMPULSES IN NW FLOW. ONE IS NEAR MSP AND THE                
OTHER NEAR BIS. WILL LEAVE IN THE LOW POPS WE HAVE BEEN CARRYING                
IN THE GRIDS FOR THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS AS SURFACE                
TROUGH DROPS SOUTH.                                                             
BOUNDARY PROGGED BY RUC/NAM/GFS TO SETTLE INTO S MN OVERNIGHT AND               
THEN MOVE BACK NORTH TOMORROW AS FLOW BECOMES MORE SOUTHERLY IN                 
ADVANCE OF TROUGH MOVING INTO MT/WY. RUN OF WARM TEMPERATURES WILL              
CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF WEEK.                                                  
NEXT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION WILL BEGIN ON THURSDAY NIGHT. ONE AREA             
POSSIBLE IN SE AREA AS SLUG OF HIGHER MOISTURES PUSHES OUT OF IOWA              
AHEAD OF UPPER TROUGH LIFTING OUT OF CENTRAL PLAINS. MAY ALSO SEE A             
CHANCE LATE IN NW AREAS AHEAD OF TROUGH MOVING OUT OF NORTHERN                  
ROCKIES.  HAVE HIGHEST POPS IN FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT AS                
NORTHERN ROCKIES TROUGH MOVES THRU AREA.  TRIMMED BACK POPS ON                  
SATURDAY WITH MODELS SHOWING PROGRESSIVE SYSTEM WITH DRIER AIRMASS              
MOVING IN.  SHOULD SEE BIT COOLER TEMPERATURES FOR THE WEEKEND AS               
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO AREA.                                        
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION.../06Z TAF ISSUANCE/                                                  
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD...AS WEAK HIGH               
PRESSURE AT THE MID LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE DOMINATES. MOSTLY                  
CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL PREVAIL OVERNIGHT. SOUTHERLY FLOW              
WILL DEVELOP ON TUESDAY...AS LOW PRESSURE BEGINS TO DEVELOP OVER                
THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES. MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WILL CONTINUE ON                     
TUESDAY.                                                                        
&&                                                                              
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
MN...NONE.                                                                      
WI...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</pre> mn                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS                                             
901 PM CDT WED AUG 20 2008                                                      
.UPDATE...AREA RADARS HAVE SHOWN A DEFINITE DIMINISHING TREND IN THE            
SHRA/TSRA ACTIVITY AND BOTH RUC/LOCAL WRFS NOT DEVELOPING MUCH MORE             
THAN LIGHT SHRA OVERNIGHT...MAINLY W OF MS RIVER TOWARD MORNING. HAVE           
ALREADY UPDATED TO CANCEL FFA AND LOWER POPS FOR MOST AREAS THE REST            
OF TONIGHT. PRIMARY UPPER LOW SPINNING NNE THROUGH WRN AR CURRENTLY AND         
ROTATING A DRY SLOT TOWARD SERN AR/NERN LA./40/                                 
PORTIONS OF THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOW: LESS UPPER LEVEL FORCING            
FOR PRECIPITATION AND CLOUD COVER SHOULD EXIST IN OUR REGION THURSDAY           
AND THIS SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO GENERALLY GET A LITTLE WARMER             
THAN THE PAST FEW DAYS. AN ASSOCIATED INCREASE IN INSTABILITY DUE TO            
THE WARMER TEMPS SHOULD OFFSET LESS FAVORABLE "SYNOPTICS" TO GET                
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND STORMS INSTIGATED BY THE AFTERNOON. DESPITE              
POTENTIALLY HIGHER AVAILABLE INSTABILITY...STILL DOES NOT LOOK LIKELY           
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS SHOULD BE MUCH OF A THREAT...BUT WE WILL HAVE           
TO WATCH FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AS PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL               
LIKELY RUN AT OR ABOVE 2 INCHES AGAIN.                                          
BEYOND THURSDAY...THE PREVIOUS UPPER LEVEL LOW TO OUR WEST WILL                 
EVOLVE INTO AN UPPER LEVEL WEAKNESS IN THE VICINITY THAT WILL                   
VAGUELY AID IN THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND POSSIBLY           
INTO SATURDAY AFTERNOON. BUT BY LATE SATURDAY OUR WEATHER WILL HAVE             
THE POTENTIAL TO BE INCREASINGLY AFFECTED BY TROPICAL STORM FAY (OR             
WHATEVER FORM FAY HAPPENS TO BE IN). THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR                
SATURDAY TO BE DRIER AND WARMER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST IF FAY IS               
TAKING A CERTAIN TRAJECTORY TOWARD THE REGION AT THAT TIME...BUT THE            
IDEA THAT CONVERGING EASTERLY FLOW FROM FAY COULD ENHANCE RAIN                  
POTENTIAL IS ALSO AT LEAST SOMEWHAT VALID AT THIS POINT. I DID                  
DEBATE RAISING OUR POPS A LITTLE ON SUNDAY...BUT THERE IS STILL MUCH            
UNCERTAINTY WITH WHERE FAY WILL BE AT THAT TIME AND EVEN FOLLOWING              
THE EXPLICIT CENTERLINE OF NHC`S FORECAST COULD RESULT IN LIMITED               
RAINFALL FOR MY CWA ON SUNDAY. BUT...I WILL ADD THAT IT IS WELL                 
WITHIN NHC`S CONE OF TRACK UNCERTAINTY (AND ECHOES A FEW AVAILABLE              
MODEL SOLUTIONS)...TO HAVE PORTIONS OF EASTERN MISSISSIPPI IN OUR               
CWA UNDER THE THREAT OF SOME GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY RAINS COME SUNDAY            
OR MONDAY. /BB/                                                                 
.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY...BEGINNING LATE IN THE              
UPCOMING WEEKEND...CONFIDENCE ON THE MID AND EXTENDED PORTIONS OF               
THE FORECAST REMAINS LOW.  THE UPPER TROUGH TO THE WEST THAT`S BEEN             
RESPONSIBLE FOR THE WIDESPREAD RAINFALL OVER THE REGION THE PAST FEW            
DAYS...WILL SLOWLY PULL OFF TO THE NORTHEAST ACROSS THE MID                     
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY ON FRIDAY.  THIS WILL ALLOW THE FORECAST               
AREA TO BECOME MORE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE THAT            
WEDGES ITSELF SOUTHWEST INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY.                
WITH A CONTINUED WARM...MOIST...AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS OVER THE                   
AREA...LOOK FOR RAIN CHANCES THROUGH AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF THE             
WEEKEND TO MAINLY BE IN THE FORM OF TYPICAL SUMMER TIME DIURNAL                 
CONVECTION.  AFTER THAT THE QUESTION BECOMES WHERE IS FAY...OR THE              
TROPICAL SYSTEM FORMALLY KNOWN AS FAY...GOING AND WHAT AFFECTS...IF             
ANY...WILL SHE POTENTIALLY HAVE ON THE FORECAST AREA?                           
YES MOST EYES WILL BE FIXED UPON FAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO               
THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK AS TO WHERE SHE`LL END UP./19/                      
LATEST NHC/MODEL GUIDANCE TAKING FAY REMNANTS INTO ERN MS EARLY                 
SUNDAY MORNING AND THEN TOWARD FAR NWRN MS. THIS TRACK WOULD BEGIN              
INCREASING OUR RAINS FROM THE E ON SATURDAY WITH MODERATE WIND FIELDS           
ARRIVING SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY WITH EVEN HEAVIER RAINFALL               
POTENTIAL. WE WILL OBVIOUSLY HAVE TO MONITOR THESE TRENDS VERY                  
CLOSELY DUE TO THE LARGE DISPLACEMENT SPREADS IN THE GUIDANCE FOR               
THIS SYSTEM./40/                                                                
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...SKIES HAVE BEEN CLEARING OUT TEMPORARILY AFTER SUNDOWN.             
EXPECT THE POSSIBILITY FOR LIGHT PATCHY FOG AND/OR STRATUS TO AGAIN             
DEVELOP EARLY THURSDAY MORNING MAINLY BETWEEN 09-14Z. OTHERWISE...VFR           
FLIGHT CATEGORIES WILL PREVAIL. SCATTERED SHRA AND TSRA WILL AGAIN              
BE POSSIBLE FOR PORTIONS OF THE REGION ON THURSDAY GENERALLY AFTER              
17Z FOR SITES GENERALLY ALONG AND WEST OF THE INTERSTATE 55 CORRIDOR./40/       
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
JACKSON       69  89  69  93 /  40  58  26  27                                  
MERIDIAN      68  92  69  92 /  32  48  27  28                                  
VICKSBURG     70  88  69  92 /  42  63  28  29                                  
HATTIESBURG   69  93  71  94 /  19  36  22  25                                  
NATCHEZ       71  87  70  91 /  41  55  26  30                                  
GREENVILLE    70  87  70  92 /  70  65  35  42                                  
GREENWOOD     69  88  71  92 /  71  64  35  43                                  
&&                                                                              
.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
MS...NONE.                                                                      
LA...NONE.                                                                      
AR...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</pre> ms                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT                                             
901 PM MDT WED AUG 20 2008                                                      
.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...                 
SWATH OF MID LEVEL CLOUDS IN ADVANCE OF TOMORROW/S STORM HAS                    
OVERSPREAD THE REGION WITH A FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS NOTED OVER                  
THE WESTERN ZONES. A COUPLE STRONGER STORMS MANAGED TO DEVELOP                  
JUST EAST OF SIDNEY EARLIER THIS EVENING NEAR A MODIFIED                        
FRONT/SURFACE TROF...BUT 00Z UPPER AIR OBSERVATIONS AND RUC REVEAL              
THE LLJ AND 700MB THERMAL RIDGE STRUCTURES ARE POISED JUST EAST OF              
THE MT/ND BORDER...SO DO NOT EXPECT ANYTHING ORGANIZED IN OUR CWA               
THIS EVENING. ONLY UPDATES WERE TO TAILOR WINDS AND SKY COVER INTO              
TONIGHT. MCZ                                                                    
PREVIOUS SHORT TERM DISCUSSION...                                               
UPPER LOW/VORTEX MOVES ONSHORE OVER BRITISH COLUMBIA/WASHINGTON                 
STATE THIS EVENING. THIS SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO SEND WEAK                      
WAVES/IMPULSES OUT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT AND THURSDAY                
IN THE SOUTHWEST UPPER FLOW. THERE IS SOME INSTABILITY ASSOCIATED               
WITH THESE WAVES SO COULD GENERATE THUNDER ANY TIME. THE UPPER                  
SYSTEM WILL THEN SEND A STRONGER COLD FRONT ACROSS NE MT THURSDAY               
AFTERNOON. MORE MOISTURE WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FRONT BUT                 
CAPE VALUES WILL BE VERY WEAK...SO EXPECT ONLY ISOLATED LIGHTNING               
STRIKES AROUND THE FRONT. UPPER TROUGH THEN PASSES OVER THE AREA                
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING INCREASING THE CHANCE FOR                 
SHOWERS. MOST INSTABILITY WILL BE TO THE EAST OF CWA SO EXPECT                  
STRONGER STORMS TO STAY EAST. HOWEVER SPC CURRENTLY HAS AN AREA OF              
SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE WX IN NORTH DAKOTA THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND                
EVENING VERY CLOSE TO THE EASTERN BORDER OF MT. AS AREA OF                      
INSTABILITY MOVES FARTHER EAST REMOVED MENTION OF THUNDER FROM                  
WESTERN ZONES THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY.                                        
COOLER AIR BEHIND THE COLD FRONTS THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON WILL               
LOWER TMAX CLOSER TO NORMAL THURSDAY. THEN NORTHWEST UPPER FLOW                 
BEHIND THE TROUGH WILL BRING EVEN COOLER AIR FRIDAY DROPPING                    
TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL WITH MAV/MET MOS GUIDANCE SUGGESTING                  
HIGHS IN THE 70S FRIDAY.                                                        
BASED ON BUFKIT INVERTED V SOUNDINGS...GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE THIS            
EVENING OVER WESTERN ZONES AS A COLD FRONT NUDGES IN. SURFACE                   
WINDS WILL BE MORE SOUTHWESTERLY THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. THEN SURFACE         
TROUGH HEADS EAST LEAVING A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE                 
AREA LATE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THIS WILL BE REINFORCED BY UPPER                 
LEVEL NORTHWEST WINDS MIXING DOWN FOR GUSTY NORTHWEST SURFACE                   
WINDS OF AROUND 20 KTS. IT IS LIKELY A LAKE WIND ADVISORY FOR FORT              
PECK LAKE WILL BE NEEDED FRIDAY. HOWEVER WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES AND           
HIGHER RH VALUES DO NOT EXPECT ANY FIRE WX CONCERNS. SCT                        
.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...                                  
EUROPEAN AND GFS MODELS AGREE REASONABLY WELL ON THE MAIN FEATURES              
OF THE LONG TERM FORECAST WITH WARMING SATURDAY AS THE NEXT RIDGE               
MOVES IN AND WARM AND CLEAR CONDITIONS SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY                  
FOLLOWED BY A CHANCE OF RAIN AND COOLER IN THE TUESDAY THROUGH                  
WEDNESDAY PERIOD AS THE NEXT TROUGH MOVES THROUGH. WJM                          
PREVIOUS LONG TERM DISCUSSION....                                               
LACK OF ANY BLOCKING RIDGES                                                     
WILL KEEP THE FLOW QUITE PROGRESSIVE THROUGH THE EXTENDED SENDING               
TEMPERATURES ON A SEESAW RIDE. VERY WINDY CONDITIONS BEHIND A                   
DEEPENING LOW FRIDAY WILL BEGIN ABATING FRIDAY EVENING AS HIGH                  
PRESSURE NESTLES INTO THE REGION. CONSEQUENTLY...LOW TEMPS FRIDAY               
NIGHT COULD BE THE COOLEST THUS FAR FOR THE MONTH WITH MOST                     
LOCALES DROPPING WELL INTO THE 40S.                                             
STRONG HEIGHT GAINS BEHIND FRIDAY`S LOW WILL THEN PROMOTE                       
SUBSTANTIAL THICKNESS GAINS THROUGH THE WEEKEND BEFORE HIGH TEMPS               
TAP VALUES WELL ABOVE NORMAL MONDAY UNDERNEATH AN IMPRESSIVE 700MB              
THERMAL RIDGE. LATEST ECWMF WOULD RATHER KEEP THIS FEATURE MUCH                 
FARTHER WEST...ALTHOUGH THIS IS A SERIOUS BREAK IN CONTINUITY WITH              
ITS PREVIOUS RUN SO AM NOT INCLINED TO BUY THIS YET. GFS AND ITS                
ENSEMBLES MEANWHILE SHOW BETTER AGREEMENT IN A FASTER EVOLUTION                 
PUSHING THE NEXT COLD FRONT THROUGH THE CWA MONDAY NIGHT. THE TROF              
DRIVING THIS FRONT DOESN`T APPEAR AS IMPRESSIVE AS THE ONE FROM                 
THE SHORT TERM PACKAGE...ALTHOUGH PATTERN RECOGNITION WOULD STILL               
SUPPORT SOME LOW POPS MOSTLY IN THE POST-FRONTAL ENVIRONMENT.                   
MODELS AND ENSEMBLES DO AGREE QUITE WELL IN DEVELOPING A FAST                   
ZONAL FLOW IN THE WAKE OF THIS TROF...SO KEPT SOME SLIGHT CHANCE                
POPS INTACT GOING INTO MIDWEEK. TEMPS WITHIN THIS FLOW SHOULD BE                
KEPT WELL IN CHECK WITH NO THREAT OF WELL ABOVE NORMAL MAX TEMPS.               
MCZ                                                                             
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
CLEAR AND VFR CONDITIONS THIS EVENING WITH SOME HIGHER CLOUDS                   
MOVING-IN FROM THE WEST OVER NIGHT. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A               
SHOWER THURSDAY MORNING AND A BETTER CHANCE IN THE                              
AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY NORTHWEST OF GLASGOW. SHOWER ACTIVITY                    
THURSDAY COULD LEAD TO SOME LOCALLY MVFR CONDITIONS AND LOCALLY                 
GUSTY WINDS FROM STORM OUTFLOWS. OTHERWISE...WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO              
BE AROUND 10 KTS FROM THE WEST TO NORTHWEST. WJM                                
&&                                                                              
.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                    
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW                                                             
</pre> mt                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC                                          
745 PM EDT WED AUG 20 2008                                                      
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD NORTH OF THE AREA AND PERSIST               
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. TROPICAL STORM FAY WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF THE                
REGION...AND EVENTUALLY WEAKEN OVER THE DEEP SOUTH. OTHERWISE...                
CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN MOSTLY DRY WITH SEASONAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH            
THE PERIOD.                                                                     
&&                                                                              
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...                                                 
AS OF 3 PM WEDNESDAY...FORECAST DILEMMA WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE AREA            
OF LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND ASSOCIATED SHOWERS THAT HAVE BASICALLY             
SET UP JUST OFF THE SE COAST OF BRUNSWICK COUNTY AND EXTENDING BACK             
TO THE SOUTHWEST THROUGH GEORGETOWN AND WILLIAMSBURG COUNTIES. THE              
ACTIVITY HAS DECREASED A BIT THE PAST FEW MINUTES...AND LOOKING AT              
RUC LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AT 925MB...IT APPEARS TO HAVE A HANDLE ON             
THINGS. THE TREND IS FOR THIS AREA TO CONTINUE TO DISSIPATE AS THE              
CONVERGENCE DISAPPEARS. THIS TREND IS REFLECTED IN THE POP                      
GRIDS/FORECAST THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. AFTER 0600 UTC...USED A               
MORE BROAD BASED APPROACH WITH THE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE INCREASING             
ONCE AGAIN VIA THE GFS. POPS REMAIN LOW WITH THE BEST CHANCES ACROSS            
THE SOUTH AND EAST OVER THE COASTAL WATERS.                                     
GENERALLY USED A BLEND OF GUIDANCE REGARDING OVERNIGHT LOWS. DO                 
EXPECT WINDS TO KEEP THE BOUNDARY LAYER AT LEAST PARTIALLY                      
MIXED...WITH WINDS OF 5-10 MPH COMMON WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER VALUES               
ALONG THE COAST. THIS SHOULD MITIGATE THE FOG THREAT AS                         
WELL...ALTHOUGH MY THOUGHTS THIS TIME YESTERDAY WERE SIMILAR.                   
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...                                  
AS OF 3 PM...H5 RIDGE WILL BECOME CENTERED OVER VA DURING THURSDAY              
AND LINGER THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. DEEPER MOISTURE WILL BE AVAILABLE              
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ZONES WITH STRONGER EASTERLY LOW-LEVEL INFLOW               
IN PLACE. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IS A LITTLE MORE LIMITED ACROSS THE                
NORTHERN AREAS PER TIME HEIGHT CROSS SECTIONS. SPEED CONVERGENCE                
WILL PERSIST ALONG THE COAST WITH FAY TO THE SOUTH AND HIGH PRESSURE            
RIDGING IN FROM THE NORTH. THE SPEED CONVERGENCE ALONG WITH MARGINAL            
INSTABILITY WILL SUPPORT WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED                          
SHOWERS/TSTMS...WITH THE BEST CHANCES SETTING UP ACROSS ILM/S                   
SOUTHERN ZONES THIS PERIOD.                                                     
OTHERWISE...EXPECT BREEZY/WINDY CONDITIONS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH             
MIXING OF STRONGER EASTERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW A GOOD BET EACH DAY.                 
WINDS EXPECTED TO BE HIGHEST ACROSS THE COASTAL SC ZONES. AS FOR                
TEMPS....CONTINUE TO FAVOR A BLEND TOWARD THE COOLER MET NUMBERS FOR            
THE HIGHS...AND A STRAIGHT BLEND FOR THE LOWS.                                  
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...                                      
AS OF 3 PM...LARGE UPPER RIDGE ELONGATED FROM SW TO NE WILL STRETCH             
ACROSS MOST OF THE EASTERN U.S. BY SATURDAY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW            
VERY DRY AIR ABOVE ABOUT 600MB ON ACCOUNT OF THIS FEATURE. DESPITE              
THE FACT THAT MOST OF THE FLOW BELOW 500MB WILL BE EASTERLY LITTLE              
MORE THAN A FEW TROPICAL-LIKE SHOWERS SHOULD BE ABLE TO MAKE IT                 
ONSHORE. SINCE MOST OF THEM WILL NOT BE MEASURABLE POPS HAVE BEEN               
KEPT IN THE SLIGHT CHANCE RANGE. NOT MUCH CHANGES INTO SUNDAY...THE             
LOW LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW MAY BECOME EVEN SHALLOWER WHILE THE MID AND             
UPPER DRY AIR PERSISTS.  OVER THE WEEKEND AS FAYS CIRCULATION MOVES             
FARTHER WEST A TREMENDOUSLY LONG EASTERLY FETCH AROUND ATLANTIC HIGH            
PRESSURE DEVELOPS. THIS IS PROGGED TO BRING INCREASING SWELL ENERGY             
TO AREA BEACHES OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO MONDAY. THIS SHOULD                   
PROLONG/ENHANCE THE RIP CURRENT THREAT.                                         
THE RIDGING WILL WEAKEN MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AT THE MID LEVELS.             
THIS SHOULD DECREASE THE CAPPING AND MID LVL DRYNESS LEADING TO                 
BETTER BUT STILL QUITE SMALL RAIN CHANCES ACROSS THE REGION AS BOTH             
THE SEA BREEZE AND A WEAK PIEDMONT TROUGH SERVE AS CONVECTIVE FOCI.             
FCST SOUNDINGS STILL SHOW PRETTY WEAK LAPSE RATES SO ANY STORMS THAT            
DO DEVELOP MAY NOT BE SIGNIFICANT RAINMAKERS.                                   
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...                                      
ALL TERMINALS ARE CURRENTLY VFR. MOST SHOWERS MOVING ONSHORE SOUTH              
OF MYR...BUT ISOLATED SHOWERS STILL DEVELOPING OFFSHORE EAST OF THE             
TERMINAL. SHOWERS SHOULD REMAIN SOUTH OF MYR FOR THE MOST PART                  
THROUGH THE EVENING...BUT WILL BE CLOSE ENOUGH TO WARRANT VCSH IN               
THE MYR TAF. SHOWERS SHOULD BE TOO ISOLATED TO TO MENTION IN THE CRE            
TAF. REMAINING TERMINALS SHOULD REMAIN DRY OVERNIGHT. TEMPO MVFR                
CEILINGS POSSIBLE BY 10Z AT FLO/LBT BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW. THINK THE            
COASTAL TERMINALS WILL REMAIN VFR THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD.                 
SHOULD BE NO DENSE FOG PROBLEMS TONIGHT ALTHOUGH LBT COULD HAVE                 
TEMPO MVFR VSBYS AFTER 10Z WHERE WINDS WILL BE LIGHTEST. VFR                    
EXPECTED THURSDAY WITH EAST WINDS GUSTING TO 20-25 KNOTS. WINDS                 
SHOULD SUBSIDE BY AFTERNOON.                                                    
OUTLOOK THOUGH MONDAY...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE                      
PERIOD...EXCEPT FOR SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY.                             
&&                                                                              
.MARINE...                                                                      
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...                                                  
AS OF 3 PM WEDNESDAY...STILL EXPECTING SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS TO                
DEVELOP ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN WATERS...ZONE 256...THIS EVENING VIA SIX            
FOOT SEAS. THESE SEAS WILL DEVELOP FROM A COMBINATION OF WIND WAVES             
WITH THE INCREASED GRADIENT AND SWELL ALREADY DEVELOPING FROM FAY.              
IF ANYTHING THE WAVEWATCH GUIDANCE IS LAGGING A BIT WITH THE                    
INCREASE AS 41004 IS REPORTING SIX FOOTERS CURRENTLY. WINDS HOWEVER             
INITIATED A BIT HIGH AND THIS SHOULD KEEP A 6:00 PM/2200 UTC START              
FOR SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS ON TRACK. STILL EXPECTING A RANGE OF                 
20-25 KNOTS BY THURSDAY MORNING ACROSS ALL WATERS...INCREASING FROM             
15-20 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON.                                                     
SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...                                   
AS OF 3 PM...EASTERLY FETCH WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE COASTAL                     
WATERS WITH FAY TO THE SOUTH AND A RIDGE BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTH.            
THIS PATTERN WILL LEAD TO A CONTINUATION OF ROUGH SEAS...AND THE                
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL REMAIN IN PLACE FOR ALL OF THE COASTAL                
WATERS. REEFCAST PLOTS AND THE LATEST WNA OUTPUT BOTH SHOW SEAS                 
BUILDING INTO THE 6-8 FT RANGE THROUGH THE PERIOD.                              
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...                                          
AS OF 3 PM...PERIOD WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY AN UNUSUALLY LONG                  
EASTERN FETCH AROUND LARGE ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE. NEARSHORE VS                 
OFFSHORE RANGE IN SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT WILL BE A BIT LOWER THAN              
NORMAL FOR AUGUST AS SEAS WILL BE PUSHED DIRECTLY TOWARDS THE COAST.            
WIND WAVES AVERAGING 2 TO 4 FT WITH AN APPROXIMATE PD OF 7 SECONDS              
WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY A 1 TO 2 FT SWELL IN THE 12-14 SECOND RANGE.             
&&                                                                              
.RIP CURRENTS...                                                                
WAVEWATCH GUIDANCE NOT ADVERTISING ANY LONG-PERIOD SWELL...BUT AM               
STILL CONCERNED ABOUT RIP CURRENT RISK THRU THIS PERIOD. THE LONG               
EASTERLY FETCH IS A PATTERN THAT FAVORS RIPS...AND ANY SWELL                    
GENERATED BY FAY WOULD END UP AT A RIGHT ANGLE TO WIND WAVE                     
ACTION. EVEN WITH FAY NO LONGER OVER WATER BY THE                               
WEEKEND...SAT/SUN WILL BE DAYS 4 AND 5 OF A CONTINUOUS AND                      
SOMETIMES FRISKY ONSHORE FLOW...A PATTERN THAT LENDS ITSELF TO                  
INCREASED RIP CURRENT THREATS.                                                  
&&                                                                              
.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
SC...NONE.                                                                      
NC...NONE.                                                                      
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM EDT                
     SATURDAY FOR AMZ256.                                                       
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 AM THURSDAY TO 6 AM EDT SATURDAY               
     FOR AMZ250-252-254.                                                        
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SYNOPSIS...SRP                                                                  
NEAR TERM...HEDEN                                                               
SHORT TERM...SRP                                                                
LONG TERM...MBB                                                                 
AVIATION...MR                                                                   
</pre> nc                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND                                         
820 PM CDT WED AUG 20 2008                                                      
.SHORT TERM...                                                                  
WINDS HAVE SUFFICIENTLY DIMINISHED TO ALLOW WIND ADVISORY TO EXPIRE.            
STILL LOOKING AT BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE ALTHOUGH RUC            
SOUNDINGS GRADUALLY ERODE MIXED LAYER WHICH SHOULD KEEP 40-45KT LOW             
LEVEL JET WINDS FROM MIXING DOWN. WITH MIXING WINDS WILL                        
LIMIT COOLING OVERNIGHT AND CURRENT MINIMUMS SEEM REASONABLE.                   
ADDITIONAL CHANGES TO CURRENT FORECAST MINOR.                                   
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
VFR...CAVOK HOWEVER GUSTY WINDS TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AND KICK UP               
AGAIN THURSDAY.                                                                 
&&                                                                              
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
ND...NONE.                                                                      
MN...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
VOELKER                                                                         
</pre> nd                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH                                          
1041 AM EDT TUE AUG 19 2008                                                     
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE SOUTH THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY AND MID              
ATLANTIC REGION TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE OVER SOUTHERN ONTARIO WILL THEN            
MOVE SOUTHEAST TO THE MID ATLANTIC COAST THROUGH FRIDAY...AS AN                 
UPPER RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S.                                      
&&                                                                              
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...                                         
A WEAK FRONT OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES WILL PUSH TOWARD THE OHIO               
RIVER TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH. MORNING                  
SOUNDING AND RUC FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE INDICATING 500-1000 J/KG                
OF CAPE OVER THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. MAY SEE ENOUGH CONVERGENCE              
ALONG THE WEAK FRONT TO SQUEEZE OUT ONE OR TWO SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS...         
MAINLY IN THE NORTHERN CWA...BUT WENT ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE DUE TO                 
LACK OF CONFIDENCE IN ANY WELL DEFINED FORCING. WENT CLOSE TO A                 
MAV/MET BLEND FOR TEMPS.                                                        
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...                               
HIGH PRESSURE SLIDING FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO THE EAST COAST WILL               
BE THE DOMINANT FEATURE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. THIS WILL                
KEEP DRY WEATHER IN PLACE...WITH A GRADUAL WARMING TREND AS WINDS               
RETURN FROM THE SOUTH LATER IN THE WORK WEEK. WENT WITH WARMER END              
OF GUIDANCE AND EVEN A BIT ABOVE GUIDANCE BY THURSDAY GIVEN                     
PROGGED 850 MB TEMPS AND STRENGTH OF THE UPPER RIDGING AND                      
SUBSIDENCE.                                                                     
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...                                     
EXTENDED MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW LARGE SPREADS IN TRACK OF                      
FAY...WHICH LEADS TO VERY LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST.              
LAST FEW RUNS OF THE GFS...TAKES T.S. FAY ACROSS FL INTO THE                    
ATLANTIC...THEN WWD BACK ACRS FL INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. FOR THE               
12Z GFS THIS OCCURS FRI INTO SAT. THE 12Z GFS THEN TAKES FAY TO NEW             
ORLEANS BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. THE 00Z ECMWF ALSO TAKES FAY ACRS             
FL INTO THE ATLANTIC...BUT THEN INTO GA ON SAT. THE REMAINS OF FAY              
ARE THEN PULLED N AND COMBINE WITH A CDFNT SUN INTO MON. MORE OF THE            
CDFNT LATER. OFFICIAL TRACK OF FAY FROM HPC MEANWHILE TAKES FAY UP              
THRU FL TO THE SE GA COAST...THEN BACK NW TO WRN NC BY SAT MRNG. HPC            
THEN MEANDERS IT AROUND THE SE U.S. BEFORE BEGINNING TO PULL IT N               
AHEAD OF THE CDFNT. GENERAL FEELING IS THAT MODELS...GFS IN                     
PARTICULAR...ARE TOO STRONG WITH SFC RIDGING OVER NEW                           
ENGLAND...THEREFORE FAY WILL BE ABLE TO WORK NWD.                               
WITH ALL THAT GOING ON...FILLING H5 LOW OVER THE PLAINS TRIES TO                
PULL NWD. GFS SPREADS QPF INTO THE WRN OH VLY THU NGT INTO                      
FRI...DROPPING SOME LIGHT PCPN IN INDIANA. ECMWF IS A LITTLE WEAKER             
AND FARTHER W WITH ITS PCPN. GFS AND ECMWF DIFFER ON STRENGTH OF                
LOW. GENERALLY THE WEAKER ECMWF IS PREFERRED.                                   
GFS AND ECMWF DO AGREE THAT AN H5 S/W WILL SWING THRU SC CANADA LATE            
IN THE WEEK...PUSHING A CDFNT THRU THE UPPER MS VLY INTO THE REGION.            
SHOULD SEE SOME CONVECTION AHEAD OF FNT SAT AND SUN. DEPENDING ON               
WHERE FAY GOES...TROPICAL MOISTURE COULD WORK INTO THE REGION AHEAD             
OF THE FNT...AND THE PCPN COULD BE HEAVIER AND MORE WIDESPREAD.                 
THE GFS IS QUICKER IN PUSHING FNT THRU THE REGION...HAVING FROPA ON             
SUN. THE ECMWF...WITH FAY FARTHER N...LINGERS FROPA TIL SUN NGT INTO            
MONDAY. HOWEVER...ECMWF STALLS FNT IN THE APPALACHIANS AND BRINGS               
REMAINS OF FAY UP THE FNT ON MONDAY.                                            
WITH ALL THAT SAID...THREW OUT THE GFS AND ECMWF RUNS INDIVIDUALLY              
AND HAD TO GO BLEND OF THE TWO...ALONG WITH ADDING TPC AND HPC FCSTS            
OF FAY. KEPT THU NGT AND FRI DRY...FOLLOWING THE ECMWF WEAKER                   
REPRESENTATION OF THE EJECTING H5 LOW.  BROUGHT SCT TRW AHEAD OF FNT            
SAT AND SUN. WENT WITH THE SLOWER ECMWF FROPA...BUT DIDNT BRING THE             
HEAVIER PCPN AS THE ECMWF DID.                                                  
TEMPS WERE ALSO A BLEND OF LATEST MEX AND HPC GUID. THOUGHT HPC WAS             
TOO WARM FOR TEMPS THU NGT INTO SAT. WENT BETWEEN THE TWO SET THOSE             
PERIODS. GRADUALLY BLENDED INTO HPC BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.                   
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION /15Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...                                     
WEAK BOUNDARY WILL SAG DOWN INTO THE AREA THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.               
AHEAD OF IT...MARGINAL INSTABILITY WILL DEVELOP AND THIS COMBINED               
WITH SOME WEAK LOW LEVEL FORCING...MAY BE ENOUGH TO PRODUCE AN                  
ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM. HOWEVER...CHANCE STILL APPEARS                 
LOW ENOUGH TO HOLD OFF ON ANY MENTION IN THE TAFS. DIURNAL CU AND               
ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY SHOULD DISSIPATE QUICKLY WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME               
HEATING...LEAVING MAINLY CLEAR SKIES OVERNIGHT.                                 
OUTLOOK...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED.                                      
&&                                                                              
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
OH...NONE.                                                                      
KY...NONE.                                                                      
IN...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SYNOPSIS...HATZOS                                                               
NEAR TERM...HATZOS                                                              
SHORT TERM...HAWBLITZEL                                                         
LONG TERM...SITES                                                               
AVIATION...JGL                                                                  
</pre> oh                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA                                       
251 AM EDT TUE AUG 19 2008                                                      
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
A COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE COMMONWEALTH TODAY...           
BRINGING A NORTHWEST FLOW OF COOLER AIR THROUGH MIDWEEK. SOME                   
LOCATIONS ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER WILL BE IN THE LOW 40S                       
WEDNESDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD ACROSS THE                     
REGION...BRINGING MODERATING TEMPERATURES AND MAINLY DRY WEATHER                
FOR THE LATER PART OF THE WORK WEEK. THE REMAINS OF TROPICAL STORM              
FAY COULD PLAY A ROLE IN THE LOCAL WEATHER BY THE WEEKEND.                      
&&                                                                              
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 11 AM THIS MORNING/...                                        
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE ALONG THE COLD FRONT CURRENTLY               
ARCING FROM THE EASTERN LAKESHORE OF LAKE ONTARIO TO SE MICHIGAN.               
BEST CONVERGENCE AND MAINTENANCE OF CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY REMAINS                 
FROM THE FINGLERLAKES REGION NORTHEASTWARD TO LAKE CHAMPLAIN THIS MORNING...    
WITH ACTIVITY DWINDLING TO THE WEST OF A JAMESTOWN TO BUFFALO LINE              
ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. EXPECT THIS TREND TO CONTINUE                       
PROVIDING THE NORTHERN TIER THE HIGHEST POPS IN THE PREDAWN HOURS               
WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF SHOWER ACTIVITY REACHING SOUTH OF I-80                
AS SFC DEWPOINTS AND DYNAMICS UNFAVORABLE FOR THEIR MAINTENANCE.                
BY DAWN...FRONTAL BOUNDARY SHOULD BE DRAPED ACROSS NORTHWEST                    
SECTIONS AND CONTINUE SLOWLY MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD. ISOLATED SHOWER              
ACTIVITY SHOULD PREDOMINATE AT THAT TIME...AGAIN MAINLY NORTH OF                
I-80...BUT AS THE MORNING PROGRESSES AND SFC HEATING COMMENCES                  
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF PA...MAY SEE ISOLD TO SCT ACTIVITY                  
REDEVELOP AHEAD OF THE FRONT AS IT DROPS SOUTH OF I-80 INTO THE                 
CENTRAL MOUNTAINS. HAVE THEREFORE MAINTAINED SLGT-CHC POPS FOR THE              
MORNING.                                                                        
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM /11 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...                      
THERMODYNAMIC SUPPORT STILL THERE FOR SOME POTENTIALLY STRONG                   
HAIL PRODUCING STORMS ACROSS THE MID SUSQ. RIVER VALLEY LATER                   
THIS MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON AS THE FRONT DROPS SOUTHWARD.                 
PLUMES CONTINUE TO INDICATE A WIDE SPREAD OF CAPE SOLUTIONS...AND               
GIVEN CURRENT MOVEMENT OF FRONT BELIEVE THE FRONT WILL BE SLOW                  
ENOUGH TO ALLOW AT LEAST PARTIAL DAYTIME HEATING TO MAKE THINGS                 
INTERESTING OVER MY SOUTHEAST COUNTIES LATER THIS MORNING. IN                   
PARTICULAR...A SHARP GRADIENT IN THE WET BULB ZERO HEIGHTS BETWEEN              
14 AND 19Z SUGGESTS ISOLATED SUPERCELLS/POTENTIALLY LARGE HAILERS               
MAY BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY CONVECTION THAT INTENSIFIES ALONG AND                  
AHEAD OF THE FRONT MID TO LATE MORNING. THIS WILL NEED TO BE                    
WATCHED CLOSELY TODAY.                                                          
THE WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY TIMEWISE IS FAIRLY NARROW...AS BY EARLY               
AFTERNOON...CONVERGENCE ALONG FRONT IS GONE...AND DYNAMICS LIFT                 
AWAY FROM THE AREA. ISOLD EARLY AFTERNOON STORMS...SOME OF WHICH                
COULD PRODUCE LARGE HAIL...SHOULD EXIT MY EASTERN ZONES BY MID                  
AFTERNOON.                                                                      
COOLER AND DRIER AIR OVERSPREADS THE AREA TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY                 
FOR A RETURN TO QUITE COMFORTABLE AIR FOR AUGUST...WITH SOME                    
CHILLY MORNING READINGS POTENTIALLY REACHING THE UPPER 30S ACROSS               
THE NORTHERN TIER EARLY WEDNESDAY REMINDING US THAT AUTUMN IS NOT               
FAR AWAY. HAVE KEPT MINS AROUND 40 AGAIN FOR THIS PACKAGE. LARGE                
AIR/WATER TEMP DIFFERENTIALS WILL LIKELY RESULT IN LOCALLY DENSE                
VALLEY FOG OVR THE NCENT MTNS.                                                  
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...                                  
SFC RIDGE FCST TO STRENGTHEN TO +2-3SD PER GEFS WILL SLOWLY SLIDE               
OFF THE MID ATLC COAST BY WEEK`S END...PROVIDING DRY AND TRANQUIL               
WEATHER THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK                                        
THE LATEST SUITE OF GLOBAL MODELS /ECMWF/GFS/UKMET/CMC/ ALONG WITH              
THE GFS ENS /GEFS/ APPEAR TO HAVE REACHED A GENERAL CONSENSUS IN                
HOLDING THE STG MID ATLC RIDGE IN PLACE THRU AT LEAST SAT.                      
THEREFORE...HAVE DELAYED POPS MAINLY UNTIL SUN AS IT APPEARS /AT                
LEAST ATTM/ THAT MOST OF THE DEEPER MSTR /PRIMARILY ASSOC WITH TS               
FAY/ WILL STAY FURTHER TO THE SOUTH AND WEST.                                   
ALTHOUGH THERE IS STILL PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY WITH REGARD TO THE                
TRACK OF TS FAY IN THE MEDIUM TO LONG RANGE...CONCEPTUAL MODELS                 
WOULD SUGGEST THAT ANY REMNANT MSTR WOULD EVENTUALLY GET FUNNELED               
NEWD AHEAD OF AN UPR GRT LKS TROF/ASSOC CLD FNT MOVG THRU THE OH                
VLY BY LATE IN THE WEEKEND/EARLY NEXT WEEK. GEFS PLUMES ALSO                    
SUGGEST THE BEST CHC FOR RNFL TO BE AFT 25/00Z.                                 
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION /07Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...                                     
REGIONAL RADARS SHOWING A FAIRLY SOLID BAND OF SHWRS/TSTMS                      
ASSOCIATED WITH COLD FRONT OVR UPSTATE NEW YORK ATTM. WANING UPPER              
LVL SUPPORT...COMBINED WITH NEGATIVE DIURNAL INFLUENCE...SHOULD                 
RESULT IN A DISSIPATING LINE OF CONVECTION AS COLD FRONT PUSHES                 
INTO NORTHERN PA LATER THIS MORNING. FOR NOW...WILL HANDLE WITH                 
CB APPENDAGE TO THE BFD TAF BTWN 06Z-11Z. POST FRONTAL MVFR                     
STRATOCU CURRENTLY OBSERVED IN VICINITY OF LK ONTARIO...AND FEEL                
QUITE CERTAIN THAT BFD WILL EXPERIENCE AT LEAST MVFR CIG /POSS                  
IFR/ BEHIND FROPA. LATEST RUC13 DATA SUGGESTS REDUCED CIGS AT BFD               
BTWN 11Z- 15Z.                                                                  
FURTHER SOUTH...SHWRS WILL BE HARD TO COME BY AS FROPA OCCURS                   
DURING DIURNAL MINIMUM AND UPPER LVL SUPPORT PASSES TO THE NORTH.               
MAIN AFFECT ACROSS CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PA WILL BE A WIND SHIFT TO THE              
NORTH AS COLD PASSES THRU BTWN 12Z-17Z. HAVE LOWERED WIND SPEEDS A              
BIT...AS LATEST ENS SOUNDING DATA ONLY SUPPORTS WINDS NR 10KTS                  
WITH GUSTS ARND 15KTS LATER TDY.                                                
A LARGE HI PRES SYSTEM WILL BUILD INTO PENNSYLVANIA WED...BRINGING              
A STRETCH OF FAIR WX AND LIGHT WINDS THAT SHOULD LAST THRU SATURDAY.            
PATCHY EARLY MORNING DENSE FOG IS LIKELY WED/THU IN THE DEEP                    
RIVER/STREAM VALLEYS OF THE ALLEGHENIES. AIRMASS WILL BE QUITE                  
DRY...SO THE ONLY TAF SITES THAT MIGHT BE AFFECTED BY THE AM FOG                
WOULD BE BFD AND IPT...WHERE LOCAL TOPOGRAPHY IS MORE FAVORABLE.                
&&                                                                              
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
NONE.                                                                           
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SYNOPSIS...DEVOIR                                                               
NEAR TERM...DEVOIR                                                              
SHORT TERM...DEVOIR                                                             
LONG TERM...STEINBUGL                                                           
AVIATION...FITZGERALD                                                           
</pre> pa                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA                                       
127 AM EDT TUE AUG 19 2008                                                      
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE STATE LATE TONIGHT                 
AND EARLY TUESDAY. A NORTHWEST FLOW OF MUCH COOLER AIR WILL                     
FOLLOW. SOME LOCATIONS ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER WILL BE IN THE LOW              
40S WEDNESDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD ACROSS THE                 
REGION...BRINGING MODERATING TEMPERATURES AND MAINLY DRY WEATHER                
FOR THE LATER PART OF THE WORK WEEK. THE REMAINS OF TROPICAL STORM              
FAY COULD PLAY A ROLE IN THE LOCAL WEATHER BY THE WEEKEND.                      
&&                                                                              
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM THIS MORNING/...                                         
STORMS ALONG THE FRONT IN LOWER ONTARIO SHOULD WEAKEN AS THEY                   
MOVE THROUGH WRN NY STATE TOWARD THE NRN TIER LATER TONIGHT...AS                
TIMING DURING THE DAY IS POOR AND THE DYNAMICS ARE BETTER TO OUR                
NE. ALSO INFLOW AIR IS NOT THAT MOIST - WITH ONLY A THIN RIBBON OF              
BETTER- THAN 60F DEW POINT AIR RIGHT AHEAD OF THE FRONT. MOST                   
DEWPOINTS LOCALLY WERE INTO THE LOW 50S EARLIER THIS AFTN. HIGHEST              
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL BE IN                                                   
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM /7 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...                       
STILL HAVE SOME CONCERN FOR ISOLATED STRONG STORMS TUE MORNING...               
ACROSS THE MIDDLE SUSQUEHANNA VALLEY...AS EDGE OF STRONGER                      
DYNAMICS BRUSH OUR AREA. MODELS HAVE BEEN HINTING THE LAST FEW                  
DAYS THAT DEWPOINTS PEAK OUT AROUND 15Z. WIDE SPREAD IN CAPE                    
VALUES ON PLUME DIAGRAMS.                                                       
BY EARLY AFTERNOON...CONVERGENCE ALONG FRONT IS GONE...AND                      
DYNAMICS LIFT AWAY FROM THE AREA. ISOLD STORMS ARE STILL POSSIBLE               
ACROSS THE EASTERN ZONES THROUGH EARLY AFTN.                                    
WE HAD A CASE LIKE THIS LAST YEAR...WHERE THE DRIER AIR WAS                     
SLOW COMING IN...AND ISOLATED SUPERCELLS FORMED JUST SE OF                      
IPT...AND PRODUCED A DAMAGING HAIL EVENT.                                       
WEATHER CONDITIONS LATELY HAVE BEEN MORE LIKE LATE AUGUST AND                   
EARLY SEPT. THE FRONT ON TUESDAY IS QUITE SHARP...WITH 40S NOTED                
THIS MORNING TO THE NORTH OF THE FRONT.                                         
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...                                  
STRONG COLD ADVECTION IN THE WAKE OF THE CLD FNT SHOULD RAPIDLY                 
DRY THINGS OUT TUE EVE...AND TEMPS MAY EVEN LEVEL OFF SOME. AN                  
UNSEASONABLY STRONG SFC HIGH ACCOMPANIED BY RATHER COOL AND                     
ANOMALOUSLY DRY AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTH LATE               
TUES NIGHT INTO WED. LOW TEMPS WILL BE RATHER CHILLY ACROSS THE                 
NRN TIER TUES NGT/WED MORNING. A STRAIGHT MOS BLEND WOULD YIELD                 
MID TO UPPER 30S FOR MINS /SOME 13-15F BELOW CLIMATOLOGICAL                     
VALUES/...WHICH IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION GIVEN IDEAL RAD COOLING              
AND PW VALUES FALLING TO -2 TO -3SD BTWN 06-12Z. HAVE KEPT MINS                 
AROUND 40-41F FOR THE TIME BEING...BUT COULD EASILY SEE GOING                   
LOWER WITH THE NEXT PACKAGE. LARGE AIR/WATER TEMP DIFFERENTIALS                 
WILL LIKELY RESULT IN LOCALLY DENSE VALLEY FOG OVR THE NCENT MTNS.              
THIS HIGH /WHICH IS ACTUALLY FCST TO STRENGTHEN TO +2-3SD PER THE               
LATEST GEFS/ WILL SLOWLY SLIDE OFF THE MID ATLC COAST BY WEEK`S                 
END...PROVIDING DRY AND TRANQUIL WEATHER THROUGH THE END OF THE                 
WORK WEEK                                                                       
THE LATEST SUITE OF GLOBAL MODELS /ECMWF/GFS/UKMET/CMC/ ALONG WITH              
THE GFS ENS /GEFS/ APPEAR TO HAVE REACHED A GENERAL CONSENSUS IN                
HOLDING THE STG MID ATLC RIDGE IN PLACE THRU AT LEAST SAT.                      
THEREFORE...HAVE DELAYED POPS MAINLY UNTIL SUN AS IT APPEARS /AT                
LEAST ATTM/ THAT MOST OF THE DEEPER MSTR /PRIMARILY ASSOC WITH TS               
FAY/ WILL STAY FURTHER TO THE SOUTH AND WEST.                                   
ALTHOUGH THERE IS STILL PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY WITH REGARD TO THE                
TRACK OF TS FAY IN THE MEDIUM TO LONG RANGE...CONCEPTUAL MODELS                 
WOULD SUGGEST THAT ANY REMNANT MSTR WOULD EVENTUALLY GET FUNNELED               
NEWD AHEAD OF AN UPR GRT LKS TROF/ASSOC CLD FNT MOVG THRU THE OH                
VLY BY LATE IN THE WEEKEND/EARLY NEXT WEEK. GEFS PLUMES ALSO                    
SUGGEST THE BEST CHC FOR RNFL TO BE AFT 25/00Z.                                 
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...                                     
REGIONAL RADARS SHOWING A FAIRLY SOLID BAND OF SHWRS/TSTMS                      
ASSOCIATED WITH COLD FRONT OVR UPSTATE NEW YORK ATTM. WANING UPPER              
LVL SUPPORT...COMBINED WITH NEGATIVE DIURNAL INFLUENCE...SHOULD                 
RESULT IN A DISSIPATING LINE OF CONVECTION AS COLD FRONT PUSHES                 
INTO NORTHERN PA LATER THIS MORNING. FOR NOW...WILL HANDLE WITH                 
CB APPENDAGE TO THE BFD TAF BTWN 06Z-11Z. POST FRONTAL MVFR                     
STRATOCU CURRENTLY OBSERVED IN VICINITY OF LK ONTARIO...AND FEEL                
QUITE CERTAIN THAT BFD WILL EXPERIENCE AT LEAST MVFR CIG /POSS                  
IFR/ BEHIND FROPA. LATEST RUC13 DATA SUGGESTS REDUCED CIGS AT BFD               
BTWN 11Z- 15Z.                                                                  
FURTHER SOUTH...SHWRS WILL BE HARD TO COME BY AS FROPA OCCURS                   
DURING DIURNAL MINIMUM AND UPPER LVL SUPPORT PASSES TO THE NORTH.               
MAIN AFFECT ACROSS CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PA WILL BE A WIND SHIFT TO THE              
NORTH AS COLD PASSES THRU BTWN 12Z-17Z. HAVE LOWERED WIND SPEEDS A              
BIT...AS LATEST ENS SOUNDING DATA ONLY SUPPORTS WINDS NR 10KTS                  
WITH GUSTS ARND 15KTS LATER TDY.                                                
A LARGE HI PRES SYSTEM WILL BUILD INTO PENNSYLVANIA WED...BRINGING              
A STRETCH OF FAIR WX AND LIGHT WINDS THAT SHOULD LAST THRU SATURDAY.            
PATCHY EARLY MORNING DENSE FOG IS LIKELY WED/THU IN THE DEEP                    
RIVER/STREAM VALLEYS OF THE ALLEGHENIES. AIRMASS WILL BE QUITE                  
DRY...SO THE ONLY TAF SITES THAT MIGHT BE AFFECTED BY THE AM FOG                
WOULD BE BFD AND IPT...WHERE LOCAL TOPOGRAPHY IS MORE FAVORABLE.                
&&                                                                              
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
NONE.                                                                           
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SYNOPSIS...DANGELO/MARTIN                                                       
NEAR TERM...DANGELO/MARTIN                                                      
SHORT TERM...DANGELO/MARTIN                                                     
LONG TERM...STEINBUGL                                                           
AVIATION...FITZGERALD                                                           
</pre> pa                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY                     
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD                                          
910 PM MDT WED AUG 20 2008                                                      
.DISCUSSION...CURRENT RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS SHOWERS AND ISOLATED                  
THUNDERSTORMS MOVING ACROSS THE BLACK HILLS. GUSTY WINDS TO AROUND              
40 MPH ARE EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE SHOWERS AND STORMS. THE SHOWERS                
AND STORMS SHOULD END BEFORE MIDNIGHT. GUSTY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST                 
WINDS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE EASTERN BLACK HILLS TONIGHT. WITH                 
SOME DOWNSLOPING...EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN MILD WITH LOWS                 
ONLY DROPPING INTO THE UPPER 60S. SOME LOCATIONS IN THE EASTERN                 
FOOTHILLS MAY NOT DROP BELOW THE LOWER 70S TONIGHT. HAVE RAISED                 
LOWS ACROSS THE EASTERN FOOTHILLS. HAVE ALSO INCREASED WINDS AS A               
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL DEVELOP OVER THE BLACK HILLS THIS EVENING                
CREATING GUSTY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS              
TO AROUND 35 MPH. THE REST OF THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK.                         
&&                                                                              
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 220 PM MDT WED AUG 20 2008/                          
DISCUSSION...SKIES REMAIN MOSTLY SUNNY ACROSS THE CWA TODAY.                    
SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES A STATIONARY SURFACE TROUGH/DRYLINE ACROSS              
NORTHWEST SOUTH DAKOTA THROUGH THE BLACK HILLS AND TO THE SOUTH.                
BREEZY SOUTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES ACROSS THE SOUTH DAKOTA PLAINS TODAY            
KEEPING DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S. BOTH THE NAM AND RUC ARE STILL IN GOOD            
AGREEMENT THAT SOME PARTS OF THE SOUTH DAKOTA PLAINS AND THE BLACK              
HILLS ARE SEEING CAPE VALUES RISING UP TO 1500 J/KG THIS AFTERNOON.             
VIS SAT SHOWS TOWERING CU DEVELOPING WEST AND SOUTH OF THE CWA                  
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF WYOMING...AND OVER THE BLACK HILLS.                
RADAR IS NOW SHOWING THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING OVER EAST CENTRAL                 
WYOMING...SO WILL LEAVE IN ISOLATED EVENING POPS ACROSS THE HILLS               
AND ACROSS THE FAR WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA PLAINS. SHEAR VALUES REMAIN             
ON THE WEAK SIDE...SO NO ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED.                  
ANOTHER QUIET DAY IS EXPECTED TOMORROW AS THE UPPER RIDGE WEAKENS               
AND SHIFTS EAST. WARMER 700 MB TEMPS OF UP TO 16C WILL BRING HIGHER             
MAX TEMPS...POSSIBLY INTO THE UPPER 90S ACROSS SOME LOCATIONS ACROSS            
THE PLAINS. CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE RISE AS AN UPPER TROUGH MOVES                 
ACROSS MONTANA. A COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE CWA TOMORROW                 
NIGHT BRINGING IN MUCH COOLER AIR TO THE CWA ALONG WITH GUSTY                   
NORTHWEST WINDS. OVERALL THE FRONTAL PASSAGE IS NOT EXPECTED TO                 
PRODUCE MUCH IN THE WAY OF PRECIP DUE TO A LACK OF MOISTURE IN THE              
LOWER LEVELS. AREAS ACROSS FAR NORTHWEST SOUTH DAKOTA AND PARTS OF              
NORTHEAST WYOMING WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCES OF SEEING STORMS SINCE             
THE MAIN UPPER FORCING IS ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA AND EASTERN                       
MONTANA...BUT CHANCES REMAIN SLIM. THE WAVE WILL BEGIN TO MOVE                  
EAST/NORTHEAST OF THE AREA FRIDAY WITH A STRONG UPPER RIDGE BUILDING            
BACK INTO THE REGION. ANOTHER QUIET DAY IS EXPECTED FRIDAY WITH                 
HIGHS JUST IN THE MID 70S TO MID 80S.                                           
EXTENDED...AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL                
LEAD TO WARM AND MAINLY DRY WEATHER THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO                
EARLY NEXT WEEK.                                                                
AVIATION...A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE POSSIBLE THIS                    
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING OVER PARTS OF FAR WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA              
AND FAR NORTHEAST WYOMING. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL.             
&&                                                                              
.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
SD...NONE.                                                                      
WY...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
WETENKAMP                                                                       
</pre> sd                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY                     
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD                                          
626 PM MDT WED AUG 20 2008                                                      
.DISCUSSION...CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES BROAD TROUGH                
OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL REMAIN                
OVER THE CWA TONIGHT. DRY LINE CURRENTLY POSITIONED OVER FAR EASTERN            
WYOMING INTO FAR WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR                     
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE                
DEVELOPED OVER PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST WYOMING. HAVE TWEAKED THIS                 
EVENINGS FORECAST TO ACCOUNT FOR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. THE REST                
OF THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK.                                                    
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 220 PM MDT WED AUG 20 2008/                         
DISCUSSION...SKIES REMAIN MOSTLY SUNNY ACROSS THE CWA TODAY.                    
SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES A STATIONARY SURFACE TROUGH/DRYLINE ACROSS              
NORTHWEST SOUTH DAKOTA THROUGH THE BLACK HILLS AND TO THE SOUTH.                
BREEZY SOUTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES ACROSS THE SOUTH DAKOTA PLAINS TODAY            
KEEPING DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S. BOTH THE NAM AND RUC ARE STILL IN GOOD            
AGREEMENT THAT SOME PARTS OF THE SOUTH DAKOTA PLAINS AND THE BLACK              
HILLS ARE SEEING CAPE VALUES RISING UP TO 1500 J/KG THIS AFTERNOON.             
VIS SAT SHOWS TOWERING CU DEVELOPING WEST AND SOUTH OF THE CWA                  
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF WYOMING...AND OVER THE BLACK HILLS.                
RADAR IS NOW SHOWING THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING OVER EAST CENTRAL                 
WYOMING...SO WILL LEAVE IN ISOLATED EVENING POPS ACROSS THE HILLS               
AND ACROSS THE FAR WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA PLAINS. SHEAR VALUES REMAIN             
ON THE WEAK SIDE...SO NO ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED.                  
ANOTHER QUIET DAY IS EXPECTED TOMORROW AS THE UPPER RIDGE WEAKENS               
AND SHIFTS EAST. WARMER 700 MB TEMPS OF UP TO 16C WILL BRING HIGHER             
MAX TEMPS...POSSIBLY INTO THE UPPER 90S ACROSS SOME LOCATIONS ACROSS            
THE PLAINS. CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE RISE AS AN UPPER TROUGH MOVES                 
ACROSS MONTANA. A COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE CWA TOMORROW                 
NIGHT BRINGING IN MUCH COOLER AIR TO THE CWA ALONG WITH GUSTY                   
NORTHWEST WINDS. OVERALL THE FRONTAL PASSAGE IS NOT EXPECTED TO                 
PRODUCE MUCH IN THE WAY OF PRECIP DUE TO A LACK OF MOISTURE IN THE              
LOWER LEVELS. AREAS ACROSS FAR NORTHWEST SOUTH DAKOTA AND PARTS OF              
NORTHEAST WYOMING WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCES OF SEEING STORMS SINCE             
THE MAIN UPPER FORCING IS ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA AND EASTERN                       
MONTANA...BUT CHANCES REMAIN SLIM. THE WAVE WILL BEGIN TO MOVE                  
EAST/NORTHEAST OF THE AREA FRIDAY WITH A STRONG UPPER RIDGE BUILDING            
BACK INTO THE REGION. ANOTHER QUIET DAY IS EXPECTED FRIDAY WITH                 
HIGHS JUST IN THE MID 70S TO MID 80S.                                           
EXTENDED...AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL                
LEAD TO WARM AND MAINLY DRY WEATHER THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO                
EARLY NEXT WEEK.                                                                
AVIATION...A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE POSSIBLE THIS                    
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING OVER PARTS OF FAR WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA              
AND FAR NORTHEAST WYOMING. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL.             
&&                                                                              
.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
SD...NONE.                                                                      
WY...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
WETENKAMP                                                                       
</pre> sd                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY                     
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD                                          
220 PM MDT WED AUG 20 2008                                                      
.DISCUSSION...SKIES REMAIN MOSTLY SUNNY ACROSS THE CWA TODAY.                   
SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES A STATIONARY SURFACE TROUGH/DRYLINE ACROSS              
NORTHWEST SOUTH DAKOTA THROUGH THE BLACK HILLS AND TO THE SOUTH.                
BREEZY SOUTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES ACROSS THE SOUTH DAKOTA PLAINS TODAY            
KEEPING DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S. BOTH THE NAM AND RUC ARE STILL IN GOOD            
AGREEMENT THAT SOME PARTS OF THE SOUTH DAKOTA PLAINS AND THE BLACK              
HILLS ARE SEEING CAPE VALUES RISING UP TO 1500 J/KG THIS AFTERNOON.             
VIS SAT SHOWS TOWERING CU DEVELOPING WEST AND SOUTH OF THE CWA                  
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF WYOMING...AND OVER THE BLACK HILLS.                
RADAR IS NOW SHOWING THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING OVER EAST CENTRAL                 
WYOMING...SO WILL LEAVE IN ISOLATED EVENING POPS ACROSS THE HILLS               
AND ACROSS THE FAR WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA PLAINS. SHEAR VALUES REMAIN             
ON THE WEAK SIDE...SO NO ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED.                  
ANOTHER QUIET DAY IS EXPECTED TOMORROW AS THE UPPER RIDGE WEAKENS               
AND SHIFTS EAST. WARMER 700 MB TEMPS OF UP TO 16C WILL BRING HIGHER             
MAX TEMPS...POSSIBLY INTO THE UPPER 90S ACROSS SOME LOCATIONS ACROSS            
THE PLAINS. CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE RISE AS AN UPPER TROUGH MOVES                 
ACROSS MONTANA. A COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE CWA TOMORROW                 
NIGHT BRINGING IN MUCH COOLER AIR TO THE CWA ALONG WITH GUSTY                   
NORTHWEST WINDS. OVERALL THE FRONTAL PASSAGE IS NOT EXPECTED TO                 
PRODUCE MUCH IN THE WAY OF PRECIP DUE TO A LACK OF MOISTURE IN THE              
LOWER LEVELS. AREAS ACROSS FAR NORTHWEST SOUTH DAKOTA AND PARTS OF              
NORTHEAST WYOMING WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCES OF SEEING STORMS SINCE             
THE MAIN UPPER FORCING IS ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA AND EASTERN                       
MONTANA...BUT CHANCES REMAIN SLIM. THE WAVE WILL BEGIN TO MOVE                  
EAST/NORTHEAST OF THE AREA FRIDAY WITH A STRONG UPPER RIDGE BUILDING            
BACK INTO THE REGION. ANOTHER QUIET DAY IS EXPECTED FRIDAY WITH                 
HIGHS JUST IN THE MID 70S TO MID 80S.                                           
EXTENDED...AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL                
LEAD TO WARM AND MAINLY DRY WEATHER THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO                
EARLY NEXT WEEK.                                                                
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE POSSIBLE THIS                   
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING OVER PARTS OF FAR WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA              
AND FAR NORTHEAST WYOMING. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL.             
&&                                                                              
.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
SD...NONE.                                                                      
WY...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
CALDERON/SCHILD                                                                 
</pre> sd                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY                     
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD                                          
955 AM MDT WED AUG 20 2008                                                      
.DISCUSSION...SKIES REMAIN MOSTLY SUNNY ACROSS THE CWA THIS MORNING.            
SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES A STATIONARY SURFACE TROUGH/DRYLINE ACROSS              
NORTHWEST SOUTH DAKOTA SOUTH THROUGH THE BLACK HILLS AND TO THE                 
SOUTH. BREEZY SOUTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES ACROSS THE SOUTH DAKOTA                  
PLAINS TODAY KEEPING DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S TO NEAR 60. BOTH THE                  
NAM AND RUC ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT SOME PARTS OF THE SOUTH                  
DAKOTA PLAINS AND THE BLACK HILLS COULD SEE CAPE VALUES RISING UP TO            
1500 J/KG THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE DIURNAL HEATING. THE QUESTION IS              
WILL THESE AREA BE ABLE TO BREAK THE CAP. MODELS THINK                          
SO...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE BLACK HILLS AND SURROUNDING AREAS. HAVE              
THUS ADDED POPS FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING MENTIONING ISOLATED              
THUNDERSTORMS. REST OF THE FORECAST                                             
&&                                                                              
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION [300 AM MDT]...CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOW               
LOW PRESSURE OVER SOUTHEAST MT...WITH SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING INTO             
CENTRAL WY AND A COLD FRONT FURTHER WEST ACROSS CENTRAL MT. UPPER               
LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS RIDGE AXIS OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST WITH LOW                 
PRESSURE ALONG THE PACIFIC NW COAST. TIGHT SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT            
IN PLACE ACROSS MOST OF THE DAKOTAS. WINDS ARE STRONGEST RIGHT NOW              
ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST AND CENTRAL SD...WHERE GUSTS TO 30 MPH             
ARE NOTED. SKIES ARE CLEAR WITH TEMPS MOSTLY IN THE 60S.                        
A COUPLE MORE WARM AND DRY DAYS ARE ON TAP AS FRONT TO THE WEST                 
STALLS OUT ACROSS CENTRAL MT. THE SURFACE TROF WILL MAKE ITS WAY                
INTO NORTHEAST WY LATER THIS MORNING AND POSSIBLY REACH THE SD                  
BORDER IN THE AFTERNOON. I SUPPOSE IT IS NOT OUT OF THE REALM OF                
POSSIBILITY THAT A HIGH BASED STORM OR TWO COULD DEVELOP ALONG THE              
TROF THIS AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING...BUT THE ATMOSPHERE JUST LOOKS            
TOO DRY SO WILL LEAVE CHANCES OUT OF THE FORECAST. FURTHER EAST                 
TOWARD CENTRAL SD...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL INCREASE LATER THIS              
MORNING AS BOUNDARY LAYER MIXES OUT. WINDS WILL APPROACH ADVISORY               
CRITERIA ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL SD DURING THE LATE MORNING AND                    
AFTERNOON HOURS. NOT SURE WINDS WILL REACH ADVISORY CRITERIA FOR ANY            
PROLONGED PERIOD OF TIME...SO WILL NOT ISSUE ONE AT THIS TIME. HIGH             
TEMPS TODAY WILL AGAIN BE MOSTLY IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER                      
90S...POSSIBLY A FEW MID 90S AROUND THE BADLANDS. IT WILL STAY                  
BREEZY ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTH CENTRAL SD TONIGHT AS LOW LEVEL JET                 
REMAINS IN PLACE OVER THE AREA. SURFACE TROF WILL RETREAT A BIT                 
WESTWARD INTO WY TONIGHT. LOWS WILL MOSTLY BE IN THE 60S.                       
UPPER TROF WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE CANADIAN ROCKIES ON THURSDAY               
AND INTO THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL FINALLY             
HELP TO PUSH COLD FRONT EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY                  
NIGHT. BEFORE THAT...ONE MORE VERY WARM DAY IS ON TAP FOR                       
THURSDAY...WITH HIGHS IN THE 90S ACROSS THE PLAINS AND 80S IN THE               
HILLS. WINDS WILL BE STRONG AGAIN ACROSS CENTRAL SD...WITH SOUTHERLY            
WINDS NEAR ADVISORY CRITERIA DURING THE DAY. ANY CHANCES FOR SHOWERS            
AND STORMS SHOULD OFF UNTIL THURSDAY NIGHT AS FRONT CROSSES. MAIN               
CHANCES FOR PCPN WILL BE ACROSS THE FAR NORTHWESTERN CWA...WHERE                
BETTER UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT AND MOISTURE WILL BE. THREAT FOR ANY                 
SEVERE STORMS SHOULD BE FURTHER NORTH ACROSS ND. THE SOUTHERN HALF              
OF THE CWA WILL REMAIN DRY.                                                     
COOLER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE AREA LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY             
...WITH TEMPS A GOOD 10 TO 15 DEGREES COOLER FOR MOST AREAS COMPARED            
TO THURSDAY. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS THE                   
NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL SD PLAINS...ESPECIALLY DURING THE MORNING            
HOURS. A PLEASANTLY COOL FRIDAY NIGHT IS IN STORE WITH LOWS IN THE              
MID 40S TO MID 50S.                                                             
EXTENDED...AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL                
LEAD TO WARM AND DRY WEATHER THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT            
WEEK. MODELS SHOWING LL MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY INCREASING WEST OF             
THE SFC HIGH OVER NORTHEASTERN WYOMING AND SOUTHWESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA            
ON SUNDAY BUT THE MID LEVELS LOOK WARM ENOUGH KEEP THE CAPPING                  
INVERSION IN PLACE.                                                             
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE AVIATION                    
FORECAST PERIOD.                                                                
&&                                                                              
.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
SD...NONE.                                                                      
WY...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</pre> sd                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD                                            
433 AM CDT WED AUG 20 2008                                                      
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY                                              
FORECAST CHALLENGES INCLUDE WIND SPEEDS TODAY...ALONG WITH                      
PRECIPITATION CHANCES TONIGHT AND AGAIN THURSDAY                                
NIGHT/FRIDAY...FOLLOWED BY IMPACTS OF AIRMASS CHANGE ON TEMPS                   
FRIDAY IN CAA.                                                                  
CURRENTLY...RETURN FLOW PATTERN CONTINUES IN FULL SWING...WITH A                
30 TO 45 KNOT LLJ RAMPING UP ACROSS CENTRAL/NC SODAK...PER THE                  
LATEST RUC ANALYSIS. ANOTHER SCT-BKN MID-LEVEL DECK OF ACCUS HAS                
DEVELOPED THIS MORNING IN AREAS OF BEST SPEED CONVERGENCE ON THE                
NOSE OF THE LLJ.                                                                
TODAY...SOUTH WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REALLY PICK UP AS PRESSURE                  
GRADIENT TIGHTENS SOMEWHAT...AND STRONG LLJ WINDS BEGIN MIXING OUT              
WITH DAYTIME HEATING. WIND ADVISORY HOISTED FOR PORTIONS OF THE                 
FORECAST AREA WHERE STRONGEST WINDS LOOK TO HAVE THE BEST CHANCE                
FOR KNOCKING OUT A COUPLE OF HOURS OF 30 MPH OR GREATER SUSTAINED               
AND/OR GUSTS TO 45 MPH OR HIGHER. WINDS AS STRONG...IF NOT                      
STRONGER...PROGGED TO SET UP AGAIN ON THURSDAY.                                 
MORE SUBSTANTIVE AREAL COVERAGE OF ACCUS THIS MORNING ON THE NOSE               
OF STRONGER LLJ COMPARED TO LAST NIGHT AT THIS TIME. LATER                      
TONIGHT...TONS MORE LLM/INSTABILITY PROGGED TO BE AROUND /THAN                  
THERE IS NOW/. 700HPA WAA PATTERN STILL SHOWING UP TONIGHT...AND                
ANOTHER STRONG LLJ OF 35 TO 50 KNOTS WILL BE AROUND TONIGHT AS                  
WELL. WENT AHEAD AND TOSSED IN A SLIGHT CHANCE POP FOR THUNDER                  
WITH WHAT IS EXPECTED TO BE A SOMEWHAT MORE ACTIVE ACCUS FIELD                  
LATER TONIGHT. ONLY MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO WX/POPS MENTION                   
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS MOST ALL OF THE DYNAMICS AND                      
INSTABILITY WILL BE BOTTLED UP ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA. BOTH THE 00Z                
GFS AND NAM SOLUTIONS AGREE BETTER THIS GO ROUND WITH FROPA TIMING              
ON FRIDAY...SO WENT AHEAD AND BASICALLY BROUGHT PRECIP MENTION TO               
AN END BY MID DAY ON FRIDAY...WHEN THE SURFACE TO 850HPA COLD                   
FRONT WILL BE WORKING EAST OUT OF THIS CWA.                                     
NO CHANGES MADE TO MAX/MIN T GRIDS THIS MORNING. FRIDAY WILL BE A               
REAL PICKLE TO FORECAST FOR MAX TEMPS WITH A FROPA IN PROGRESS AND              
CAA WORKING INTO THE CWA FROM THE NORTHWEST.                                    
.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY                                       
THE MODELS AND GFS ENSEMBLES ARE IN MORE AGREEMENT WITH THE MAIN                
WEATHER SYSTEMS AFFECTING THE AREA THROUGH THE LONG TERM. FIRST                 
OFF...THE LOCATION OF THE COLD FRONT COME FRIDAY NIGHT IS PROGGED               
TO BE TO THE EAST OF THE CWA WITH COOLER AND DRIER NORTHWEST WINDS              
PREVAILING. THUS...TOOK OUT THE LOW POP FOR NORTHEAST SD AND WEST               
CENTRAL MN FOR FRIDAY NIGHT. OTHERWISE...A LARGE AREA OF SURFACE                
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE SLIDING ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE LONG                
TERM. ON SATURDAY THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AREA WILL BE OVER THE               
CWA WITH NOT MUCH FOR WINDS...SUNNY SKIES AND COOLER TEMPERATURES.              
SATURDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE THE COOLEST NIGHT WE HAVE HAD IN WHILE                 
WITH LOWER 50S EAST IN THE CWA AND MAYBE 50 OR LOWER OCCURRING IN               
THE JAMES VALLEY BY SUNRISE SUNDAY. LOWERED THE TEMPERATURES FOR                
SATURDAY NIGHT SOME AND MAY HAVE TO LOWER THEM EVEN MORE. WAA                   
RETURNS FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD AS THE HIGH PRESSURE AREA                    
PUSHES EAST ALONG WITH INCREASING SOUTH WINDS. ANOTHER PACIFIC                  
FRONT WILL AFFECT THE REGION COME TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. MAY                
HAVE TO ADD IN A POP FOR THIS TIME PERIOD IN THE NEXT FORECAST.                 
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
SCT TO BKN 8000 FOOT CLOUDS WILL MOVE OVER THE ABR AND ATY TAF                  
SITES THROUGH 14Z OR SO. OTHERWISE...SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR AT              
ALL TAF SITES LATER THIS MORNING THROUGH TONIGHT. THE ISSUE TODAY               
INTO THIS EVENING WILL BE THE STRONG SOUTH WINDS IN THE 20 TO 35                
KNOT RANGE...ESPECIALLY AT MBG...PIR AND ABR. NO SIGNIFICANT                    
WEATHER OR VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED AT THE TAF SITES                
THROUGH TONIGHT.                                                                
&&                                                                              
.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
SD...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR BROWN-CAMPBELL-             
     CLARK-DAY-EDMUNDS-FAULK-HAND-HYDE-MARSHALL-MCPHERSON-POTTER-               
     SPINK-WALWORTH.                                                            
     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM CDT /NOON MDT/ THIS AFTERNOON FOR                 
     BUFFALO-DEWEY-HUGHES-JONES-LYMAN-STANLEY-SULLY.                            
MN...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHORT TERM...DORN                                                               
LONG TERM...MOHR                                                                
AVIATION...MOHR                                                                 
WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN                                                            
</pre> sd                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD                                            
1048 AM CDT TUE AUG 19 2008                                                     
.UPDATE...REST OF TODAY                                                         
OVERALL...FORECAST FOR TODAY IS ON TRACK WITH ONLY A FEW MINOR                  
CHANGES MADE. FOG/STRATUS HAS DISSIPATED ACROSS THE EXTREME                     
NORTHEASTERN CWA AND LLJ INDUCED MID LEVEL CLOUDS BEGINNING TO                  
ALSO DECREASE ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN CWA. HIGH TEMPS ONLY CHANGED              
A DEGREE OR TWO BASED ON TRENDS THIS MORNING. SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY              
SUNNY TODAY WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS PICKING UP INTO THE 15 TO 25 MPH               
RANGE ACROSS CENTRAL/WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON.                       
DEWPOINTS ONCE AGAIN HAVING A TOUGH TIME DROPPING AND ARE STAYING               
UP IN THE MID 60S ACROSS THE EASTERN CWA. HAVE INCREASED DEWPOINTS              
A BIT HEADING INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS.                                         
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION...                                                             
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY                                            
FORECAST CHALLENGES WILL BE WIND SPEEDS AND EXTENT OF MOISTURE                  
RETURN INTO THE AREA THROUGH THURSDAY...ALONG WITH MAX/MIN TEMPS.               
CURRENTLY...AN EAST-WEST ORIENTED STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY BASICALLY            
BISECTS THE CWA...WITH LIGHT EASTERLY SURFACE WINDS NORTH OF THE                
BOUNDARY AND LIGHT SOUTHERLY SURFACE WINDS SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY.               
SURFACE DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS HAVE DROPPED DOWN TO LESS THEN 3                   
DEGREES ALREADY THIS MORNING ACROSS MUCH OF THE EASTERN HALF OF                 
THE CWA...SO CONTINUED THE PATCHY FOG MENTION IN THE GRIDS THROUGH              
9 AM CDT. HIGH PRESSURE ALSO RESIDES THROUGHOUT THE REGION SOUTH                
AND EAST OF THE CWA. DESPITE THE MEAGER 850HPA MOISTURE AVAILABLE               
TO WORK WITH AND THE LACK OF MID/UPPER LEVEL LIFT/SUPPORT...AN                  
ACCUS CLOUD FIELD HAS FORMED EARLY THIS MORNING FROM SOUTH CENTRAL              
SODAK THROUGH EASTERN NEBRASKA ALONG THE NOSE OF A DEVELOPING 25                
KNOT LLJ MAX /PER LATEST RUC ANALYSIS/.                                         
THIS STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL RECEDE NORTHWARD TODAY...AS A                
RETURN FLOW PRESSURE GRADIENT WIND STARTS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE                 
FORECAST AREA IN RESPONSE TO A DEEPENING LEE-SIDE SURFACE TROF OF               
LOW PRESSURE. THE RETURN FLOW SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL STICK AROUND                 
THROUGH THURSDAY RESULTING IN BREEZY TO WINDY SOUTHERLY WINDS.                  
AND BREEZY TO WINDY SOUTHERLY WINDS BRING ABOUT SOME CONCERN ON                 
THE FIRE WEATHER SIDE OF THE HOUSE. WILL LIKELY HAVE 25 MPH OR                  
HIGHER GUSTS CRITERIA SATISFIED TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY. FINE FUELS              
ARE SAID TO BE CURED OR ARE CURING...SO MAY NOT BE MUCH LONGER                  
BEFORE FINE FUELS CRITERIA FOR EXPLOSIVE FIRE GROWTH ARE MET. THE               
THIRD AND FINAL COMPONENT...LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY...DOES NOT                    
APPEAR TO BE MET TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY. RANGELAND FIRE DANGER                  
WORKS OUT TO BE MODERATE TO HIGH THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE                      
WESTERN MOST FIRE WEATHER FORECAST ZONES.                                       
850HPA THERMAL ADVECTION OFF BOTH THE NAM AND GFS 00Z SOLUTIONS                 
SUGGESTS THAT 850HPA TEMPS BY PEAK HEATING TODAY COULD ACTUALLY BE              
A DEGREE OR TWO COOLER THAN THEY WERE ON MONDAY AT PEAK HEATING AS              
THE DEVELOPING RETURN FLOW SOUTHERLY WINDS DRAW RELATIVELY COOLER               
AIR NORTHWARD OFF OF THE SURFACE HIGH RESIDING ACROSS THE CENTRAL               
PLAINS. CALL IT NEUTRAL AIR ADVECTION FROM THE SOUTH FOR WEDNESDAY              
AS WELL...BEFORE THE PREFRONTAL WARMING HAS A CHANCE TO KICK IN                 
ACROSS THE MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY ON THURSDAY. STILL LOOKS LIKE                  
MID TO UPPER 90S IS ACHIEVABLE OUT ACROSS THE WESTERNMOST THIRD OF              
FORECAST ZONES ON THURSDAY...BUT FURTHER EAST /JAMES RIVER VALLEY               
AND POINTS EAST/ WILL PROBABLY ONLY BE ABLE TO WARM TO MID/UPPER                
80S...AGAIN DUE TO LACK OF DECENT LOW LEVEL WAA.                                
SOUTHERLY LLJ MAXES DEVELOP EACH OF THE NEXT TWO NIGHTS...WITH                  
THE STRONGEST LLJ WINDS PROGGED WEDNESDAY NIGHT BETWEEN 35 AND 45               
KNOTS BETWEEN THE GFS AND NAM RESPECTIVELY. SLIGHTLY HIGHER                     
MOISTURE CONTENT AIR WILL BE DRAWN UP INTO THE FORECAST AREA ON                 
THESE LOW LEVEL JETS /PROLLY MORE MOISTURE THAN PROGGED BY THE GFS              
SINCE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION IS A KNOWN WEAKNESS IN THE GFS               
MODEL/...AND DESPITE THE LACK OF 250HPA JET LEVEL SUPPORT AND ANY               
NOTABLE MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROFPAS...AM CONCERNED ABOUT THE LACK               
OF LATE NIGHT POPS/WX MENTION FOR ACCUS-TYPE ELEVATED SHOWERS AND               
THUNDERSTORMS THAT MIGHT BE ABLE TO GET GOING JUST BASED OFF THE                
COMBINATION OF 850HPA MOISTURE ADVECTION/WEAK 700HPA WAA AND                    
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE NOSE OF 850HPA LOW LEVEL JETS EACH OF THE                 
NEXT COUPLE OF NIGHTS. COLLABORATION OVER THIS ISSUE CONCLUDED                  
WITH A CONTINUED DRY FORECAST FOR NOW. BUT WILL NEED TO RE-ASSESS               
WITH THE NEXT FEW MODEL RUNS.                                                   
.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY                                      
THE MODELS AND GFS ENSEMBLES SHOW SOME IMPORTANT DIFFERENCES IN THE             
LONG TERM WITH THE LOCATION OF THE COLD FRONT AS IT MOVES THROUGH               
THE REGION. FOR THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...THE LAST FORECAST IN                
THE NAM CYCLE SHOWS THE COLD FRONT JUST MOVING INTO OUR WESTERN                 
CWA WHILE THE GFS SHOWS THE FRONT INTO OUR FAR EASTERN CWA. THE                 
EC WAS BETWEEN THESE TWO MODELS WITH THE COLD FRONTAL LOCATION.                 
WHATEVER OCCURS...BELIEVE A 20 POP AT LEAST IS WARRANTED FOR                    
THURSDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE CWA. DESPITE THE WARM MID LEVELS...A                  
STRONG LLJ...INCREASING DEEP LAYER SHEAR...LIKELY DEWPOINTS IN THE              
MID TO UPPER 60S...GOOD INSTABILITY...AND GOOD LOW LEVEL LIFT                   
ALONG THE FRONTAL ZONE COULD RESULT IN A LINE OF STORMS DEVELOPING              
AND SWEEPING ACROSS THE CWA IF THE CAP TURNS OUT TO BE WEAKER AND               
IS BROKEN. ALSO...IF A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AREA DEVELOPS ALONG                 
THE FRONT AS WAS SHOWN BY THE NAM...THIS WILL INTENSIFY THE LOW                 
LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND LIFT...INCREASING THE CHANCES OF TSRA                     
DEVELOPMENT. LEFT THE POPS AS IS FOR FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT FOR                
THE EASTERN CWA TO ACCOUNT FOR THE POSSIBLE SLOWER SOLUTIONS OF                 
THE NAM AND EC. WILL HAVE TO WAIT AND SEE ON THIS.                              
OTHERWISE...GOOD CAA ON FRIDAY ALONG WITH A DEEP MIXING LAYER WILL              
RESULT IN COOLER TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE CWA ALONG WITH LIKELY                  
BREEZY CONDITIONS. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE                  
REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH A RETURN TO WAA ON SUNDAY INTO                  
MONDAY. EXPECT IT TO REMAIN DRY THROUGH THIS TIME PERIOD.                       
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
LOOK FOR A FEW MID CLOUDS (FEW-SCT080-100) TO DEVELOP OVER ALL THE              
TERMINAL SITES AFT 18Z. VSBYS EXPECTED TO REMAIN P6SM THROUGH 12Z               
WEDNESDAY WITH ONLY FEW-SCT MID CLOUDS DOTTING THE SKY.                         
&&                                                                              
.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
SD...NONE.                                                                      
MN...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
UPDATE...TMT                                                                    
SHORT TERM...DORN                                                               
LONG TERM...MOHR                                                                
AVIATION...HINTZ                                                                
WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN                                                            
</pre> sd                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD                                            
322 AM CDT TUE AUG 19 2008                                                      
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY                                            
FORECAST CHALLENGES WILL BE WIND SPEEDS AND EXTENT OF MOISTURE                  
RETURN INTO THE AREA THROUGH THURSDAY...ALONG WITH MAX/MIN TEMPS.               
CURRENTLY...AN EAST-WEST ORIENTED STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY BASICALLY            
BISECTS THE CWA...WITH LIGHT EASTERLY SURFACE WINDS NORTH OF THE                
BOUNDARY AND LIGHT SOUTHERLY SURFACE WINDS SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY.               
SURFACE DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS HAVE DROPPED DOWN TO LESS THEN 3                   
DEGREES ALREADY THIS MORNING ACROSS MUCH OF THE EASTERN HALF OF                 
THE CWA...SO CONTINUED THE PATCHY FOG MENTION IN THE GRIDS THROUGH              
9 AM CDT. HIGH PRESSURE ALSO RESIDES THROUGHOUT THE REGION SOUTH                
AND EAST OF THE CWA. DESPITE THE MEAGER 850HPA MOISTURE AVAILABLE               
TO WORK WITH AND THE LACK OF MID/UPPER LEVEL LIFT/SUPPORT...AN                  
ACCUS CLOUD FIELD HAS FORMED EARLY THIS MORNING FROM SOUTH CENTRAL              
SODAK THROUGH EASTERN NEBRASKA ALONG THE NOSE OF A DEVELOPING 25                
KNOT LLJ MAX /PER LATEST RUC ANALYSIS/.                                         
THIS STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL RECEDE NORTHWARD TODAY...AS A                
RETURN FLOW PRESSURE GRADIENT WIND STARTS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE                 
FORECAST AREA IN RESPONSE TO A DEEPENING LEE-SIDE SURFACE TROF OF               
LOW PRESSURE. THE RETURN FLOW SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL STICK AROUND                 
THROUGH THURSDAY RESULTING IN BREEZY TO WINDY SOUTHERLY WINDS.                  
AND BREEZY TO WINDY SOUTHERLY WINDS BRING ABOUT SOME CONCERN ON                 
THE FIRE WEATHER SIDE OF THE HOUSE. WILL LIKELY HAVE 25 MPH OR                  
HIGHER GUSTS CRITERIA SATISFIED TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY. FINE FUELS              
ARE SAID TO BE CURED OR ARE CURING...SO MAY NOT BE MUCH LONGER                  
BEFORE FINE FUELS CRITERIA FOR EXPLOSIVE FIRE GROWTH ARE MET. THE               
THIRD AND FINAL COMPONENT...LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY...DOES NOT                    
APPEAR TO BE MET TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY. RANGELAND FIRE DANGER                  
WORKS OUT TO BE MODERATE TO HIGH THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE                      
WESTERN MOST FIRE WEATHER FORECAST ZONES.                                       
850HPA THERMAL ADVECTION OFF BOTH THE NAM AND GFS 00Z SOLUTIONS                 
SUGGESTS THAT 850HPA TEMPS BY PEAK HEATING TODAY COULD ACTUALLY BE              
A DEGREE OR TWO COOLER THAN THEY WERE ON MONDAY AT PEAK HEATING AS              
THE DEVELOPING RETURN FLOW SOUTHERLY WINDS DRAW RELATIVELY COOLER               
AIR NORTHWARD OFF OF THE SURFACE HIGH RESIDING ACROSS THE CENTRAL               
PLAINS. CALL IT NEUTRAL AIR ADVECTION FROM THE SOUTH FOR WEDNESDAY              
AS WELL...BEFORE THE PREFRONTAL WARMING HAS A CHANCE TO KICK IN                 
ACROSS THE MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY ON THURSDAY. STILL LOOKS LIKE                  
MID TO UPPER 90S IS ACHIEVABLE OUT ACROSS THE WESTERNMOST THIRD OF              
FORECAST ZONES ON THURSDAY...BUT FURTHER EAST /JAMES RIVER VALLEY               
AND POINTS EAST/ WILL PROBABLY ONLY BE ABLE TO WARM TO MID/UPPER                
80S...AGAIN DUE TO LACK OF DECENT LOW LEVEL WAA.                                
SOUTHERLY LLJ MAXES DEVELOP EACH OF THE NEXT TWO NIGHTS...WITH                  
THE STRONGEST LLJ WINDS PROGGED WEDNESDAY NIGHT BETWEEN 35 AND 45               
KNOTS BETWEEN THE GFS AND NAM RESPECTIVELY. SLIGHTLY HIGHER                     
MOISTURE CONTENT AIR WILL BE DRAWN UP INTO THE FORECAST AREA ON                 
THESE LOW LEVEL JETS /PROLLY MORE MOISTURE THAN PROGGED BY THE GFS              
SINCE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION IS A KNOWN WEAKNESS IN THE GFS               
MODEL/...AND DESPITE THE LACK OF 250HPA JET LEVEL SUPPORT AND ANY               
NOTABLE MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROFPAS...AM CONCERNED ABOUT THE LACK               
OF LATE NIGHT POPS/WX MENTION FOR ACCUS-TYPE ELEVATED SHOWERS AND               
THUNDERSTORMS THAT MIGHT BE ABLE TO GET GOING JUST BASED OFF THE                
COMBINATION OF 850HPA MOISTURE ADVECTION/WEAK 700HPA WAA AND                    
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE NOSE OF 850HPA LOW LEVEL JETS EACH OF THE                 
NEXT COUPLE OF NIGHTS. COLLABORATION OVER THIS ISSUE CONCLUDED                  
WITH A CONTINUED DRY FORECAST FOR NOW. BUT WILL NEED TO RE-ASSESS               
WITH THE NEXT FEW MODEL RUNS.                                                   
.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY                                      
THE MODELS AND GFS ENSEMBLES SHOW SOME IMPORTANT DIFFERENCES IN THE             
LONG TERM WITH THE LOCATION OF THE COLD FRONT AS IT MOVES THROUGH               
THE REGION. FOR THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...THE LAST FORECAST IN                
THE NAM CYCLE SHOWS THE COLD FRONT JUST MOVING INTO OUR WESTERN                 
CWA WHILE THE GFS SHOWS THE FRONT INTO OUR FAR EASTERN CWA. THE                 
EC WAS BETWEEN THESE TWO MODELS WITH THE COLD FRONTAL LOCATION.                 
WHATEVER OCCURS...BELIEVE A 20 POP AT LEAST IS WARRANTED FOR                    
THURSDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE CWA. DESPITE THE WARM MID LEVELS...A                  
STRONG LLJ...INCREASING DEEP LAYER SHEAR...LIKELY DEWPOINTS IN THE              
MID TO UPPER 60S...GOOD INSTABILITY...AND GOOD LOW LEVEL LIFT                   
ALONG THE FRONTAL ZONE COULD RESULT IN A LINE OF STORMS DEVELOPING              
AND SWEEPING ACROSS THE CWA IF THE CAP TURNS OUT TO BE WEAKER AND               
IS BROKEN. ALSO...IF A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AREA DEVELOPS ALONG                 
THE FRONT AS WAS SHOWN BY THE NAM...THIS WILL INTENSIFY THE LOW                 
LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND LIFT...INCREASING THE CHANCES OF TSRA                     
DEVELOPMENT. LEFT THE POPS AS IS FOR FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT FOR                
THE EASTERN CWA TO ACCOUNT FOR THE POSSIBLE SLOWER SOLUTIONS OF                 
THE NAM AND EC. WILL HAVE TO WAIT AND SEE ON THIS.                              
OTHERWISE...GOOD CAA ON FRIDAY ALONG WITH A DEEP MIXING LAYER WILL              
RESULT IN COOLER TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE CWA ALONG WITH LIKELY                  
BREEZY CONDITIONS. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE                  
REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH A RETURN TO WAA ON SUNDAY INTO                  
MONDAY. EXPECT IT TO REMAIN DRY THROUGH THIS TIME PERIOD.                       
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
VFR MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THIS TAF PERIOD WITH                
INCREASING SOUTH WINDS BY THIS AFTERNOON. SOME LIGHT FOG IS AGAIN               
POSSIBLE UNTIL 14Z AT ABR AND ATY. OTHERWISE...NO OTHER                         
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THE TAF SITES.                               
&&                                                                              
.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
SD...NONE.                                                                      
MN...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHORT TERM...DORN                                                               
LONG TERM...MOHR                                                                
AVIATION...MOHR                                                                 
WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN                                                            
</pre> sd                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX                                         
300 AM CDT WED AUG 20 2008                                                      
.DISCUSSION...THE H5 LOW OVER NORTH TEXAS WILL LINGER NEAR THE RED              
RIVER TODAY BEFORE TROUGHING OUT AND LIFTING NORTHEAST TONIGHT. THE             
LACK OF ASSOCIATED ENERGY PULSES MOVING OVER DEEP SOUTH TEXAS MAY               
PROVIDE A BRIEF RESPITE TO THE ONGOING RAIN SITUATION. HOWEVER...THE            
LATEST BRO SOUNDING IS EXTREMELY MOIST WITH PWAT AT 2.41...AND IT               
WILL NOT TAKE MUCH HEATING TO TRIGGER SHOWERS ONCE AGAIN. FORECAST              
SOUNDINGS REMAIN MOIST WITH OVER TWO INCHES OF PWAT INTO THE WEEKEND            
BEFORE THINGS DRY OUT SOMEWHAT.                                                 
THAT HAVING BEEN SAID...MOST OF THE MODELS SEEM TO FOCUS THE HIGHER             
RAIN CHANCES FOR TODAY OVER THE EASTERN SECTIONS AND THE MARINE                 
AREAS. STORM TOTAL PRECIP ESTIMATES FROM THE LAST THREE DAYS SHOW               
AREAS AWAY FROM THE COAST TAKING THE BRUNT OF THE RAINFALL...WITH               
MANY AREAS INDICATING OVER 5 INCHES OF RAIN. COASTAL AREAS HAVE                 
GENERALLY RECEIVED LESS THAN 5 INCHES. FEEL THAT RAINS TODAY WILL               
TOUCH DIFFERENT AREAS AND WILL BE LOCALIZED...SO WILL DROP THE                  
CURRENT FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR THE WESTERN COUNTIES.                             
THIS EVENT IS BY NO MEANS OVER HOWEVER...AND ENERGY PULSES ARE                  
PROGGED TO MOVE FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ALONG A MID LEVEL                   
WEAKNESS ABOVE DEEP SOUTH TEXAS ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. UNSETTLED               
WEATHER MAY CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND AS WELL...WITH THE FOCUS                  
SHIFTING TO CONVECTION OVER OLD MEXICO...WHICH WILL SPILL OVER INTO             
DEEP SOUTH TEXAS. WITH THE H5 RIDGE RELOCATED UPSTREAM...THERE IS               
LITTLE CAP TO PREVENT REGULAR SHOWER ACTIVITY...AND THIS SITUATION              
IS PROGGED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE FORECAST. CHANCES WILL DIMINISH               
NEXT WEEK...BUT SHOWERS WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE VIA AT LEAST THE SEA             
BREEZE.                                                                         
ADDED PATCHY FOG TO THE FORECAST FOR THE EARLY HOURS OF THIS MORNING            
AS STANDING WATER AND LIGHT WINDS ARE PROMOTING ITS FORMATION.                  
OTHERWISE...DID NOT ALTER THE OTHER GRIDS VERY MUCH. RAIN COOLING               
AFTER THIS WEEKEND WILL DECREASE AND THE DIURNAL TEMPERATURE SPREAD             
SHOULD INCREASE AS HIGH TEMPERATURES RISE.                                      
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED AT 843 PM CDT TUE AUG 19 2008...SATELLITE             
AND RADAR IMAGES INDICATE LESS CONVECTION ACROSS DEEP SOUTH TEXAS               
AND NORTHEAST MEXICO TONIGHT COMPARED TO LAST NIGHT. RUC80 500MB                
HEIGHT ANALYSIS AND WATER VAPOR IMAGES INDICATE THE LOW ACROSS THE              
SOUTHERN PLAINS CONTINUES TO DRAW MOISTURE ACROSS CENTRAL MEXICO                
INTO THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES HAVE                 
CHANGED LITTLE ACROSS THE LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY SINCE LAST NIGHT              
SO WILL CONTINUE FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR THE WESTERN AND SOUTHERN                 
PORTIONS OF THE CWA THROUGH TONIGHT SINCE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE                  
ACROSS SOUTHWEST TX WILL CONTINUE TO PULL MOISTURE OVER THE WESTERN             
GULF INLAND AND THE 500MB TROUGH AXIS ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS              
SHOULD PROVIDE ENOUGH INSTABILITY ALOFT TO PRODUCE ISOLATED TO                  
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT INTO                
WEDNESDAY. WILL LOWER POPS TONIGHT BASED ON RADAR TRENDS BUT WILL               
CONTINUE TO MENTION HEAVY RAINFALL WITH STORMS.                                 
&&                                                                              
.MARINE...BUOY 42020 REPORTED SOUTH WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS GUSTING TO            
AROUND 12 KNOTS WITH SEAS AT 2 FEET WITH A PERIOD OF 5 SECONDS AT 01            
CDT/06 UTC. BROAD MID-LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL PERSIST OVER TEXAS FOR            
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...PRODUCING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND             
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS OF DEEP SOUTH TEXAS.             
MARINERS CAN ALSO EXPECT LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS AND LOW TO MODERATE            
SEAS.                                                                           
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OVER THE TRIO OF REGIONAL               
AIRPORTS THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS...WITH BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS IN              
THE VICINITY OF ANY LATE MORNING THROUGH EARLY EVENING THUNDERSTORMS.           
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
BAYVIEW            089 079 090 079 / 050 010 050 020                            
BROWNSVILLE        090 078 092 078 / 050 010 050 020                            
FALFURRIAS         093 074 093 076 / 040 020 050 030                            
HARLINGEN          092 078 093 078 / 050 020 050 020                            
HEBBRONVILLE       094 074 095 075 / 030 020 050 030                            
MCALLEN            093 078 095 078 / 040 020 050 020                            
PORT ISABEL        087 079 088 079 / 050 010 050 020                            
RIO GRANDE CITY    094 076 095 076 / 040 010 050 030                            
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 086 080 086 080 / 050 020 050 020                            
&&                                                                              
.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                        
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
54/66                                                                           
THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:                                   
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BROWNSVILLE                                              
</pre> tx                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX                                         
843 PM CDT TUE AUG 19 2008                                                      
.DISCUSSION...SATELLITE AND RADAR IMAGES INDICATE LESS CONVECTION               
ACROSS DEEP SOUTH TEXAS AND NORTHEAST MEXICO TONIGHT COMPARED TO                
LAST NIGHT. RUC80 500MB HEIGHT ANALYSIS AND WATER VAPOR IMAGES                  
INDICATE THE LOW ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS CONTINUES TO DRAW                   
MOISTURE ACROSS CENTRAL MEXICO INTO THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO.                 
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES HAVE CHANGED LITTLE ACROSS THE LOWER RIO              
GRANDE VALLEY SINCE LAST NIGHT SO WILL CONTINUE FLASH FLOOD WATCH               
FOR THE WESTERN AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA THROUGH TONIGHT                
SINCE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE ACROSS SOUTHWEST TX WILL CONTINUE TO                 
PULL MOISTURE OVER THE WESTERN GULF INLAND AND THE 500MB TROUGH                 
AXIS ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS SHOULD PROVIDE ENOUGH INSTABILITY             
ALOFT TO PRODUCE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS                
ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. WILL LOWER POPS TONIGHT                 
BASED ON RADAR TRENDS BUT CONTINUE TO MENTION HEAVY RAINFALL WITH               
STORMS.                                                                         
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...THIS EVENINGS CONV HAS DISSIPATED LEAVING BEHIND ONLY               
MID AND HIGH CLD DECKS. WILL MAINTAIN VFR CONDITONS FOR THE                     
OVERNIGHT PERIOD...BUT WILL INCLUDE A MENTION OF LOWER CEILINGS AND             
VSBYS TOMORROW AFTERNOON FOR SOME POSSIBLE DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONV                
LATER IN THE CURRENT TAF PERIOD.                                                
&&                                                                              
.MARINE...A LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW WILL PREVAIL ALONG THE LOWER TX                  
COASTLINE THROUGH THE NIGHT MAINTAINING PRETTY BENIGN MARINE                    
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE BAY AND GULF WATERS. NO MAJOR CHANGES EXPECTED            
FOR THE UPCOMING CWF UPDATE.                                                    
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA/ 
UPPER LOW OVER NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN AND                    
BEGIN LIFTING OUT OVER THE NEXT 72 HRS. A WEAK UPPER TROF WILL                  
REMAIN IN PLACE DOWN TO THE BIG BEND...WITH SUBTLE PERTURBATIONS                
CONTINUING TO SET OFF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTH                    
TEXAS. CONVECTIVE COVERAGE TODAY HAS BEEN ON THE ISOLATED TO                    
SCATTERED SIDE...AND DEEP MOISTURE AXIS IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT TO                 
THE EAST AND NORTHEAST OVER THE GULF WATERS OVER THE NEXT 24 HRS                
OR SO. THUS...THE THREAT OF ADDITIONAL FLOODING RAINS WOULD APPEAR              
TO BE COMING TO AN END. HAVING SAID THIS...WILL LET FLOOD WATCH                 
CONTINUE THROUGH CURRENT 7 PM EXPIRATION TIME AND ALLOW EVENING                 
SHIFT TO FURTHER EVALUATE THE SITUATION.                                        
REMAINDER OF INHERITED FORECAST LOOKED ON TARGET WITH RAINFALL                  
CHANCES DROPPING OFF INTO THE SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE CATEGORY                  
TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK. POPS OVER THE WEEKEND MAY NEED TO BE                
INCREASED...AS BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE SHOWING AN INVERTED                   
TROF/LOW DEVELOPING AND TRACKING OVER THE AREA. WILL CONTINUE TO                
MONITOR TRENDS.                                                                 
AVIATION...VFR WILL GENERALLY PREVAIL FOR THE NEXT 24                           
HOURS...THOUGH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS                  
WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE AREA.                                               
MARINE...DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE...IN CONJUNCTION WITH UPPER                     
LEVEL DISTURBANCES MOVING OVERHEAD FROM UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE                
LOCATED IN NORTHERN TEXAS...WILL KEEP SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS                     
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. WEAK           
TO MODERATE SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL RESULT IN SEAS OF 2 TO 4 FEET.                 
WINDS AND SEAS WILL BE HIGHER IN AN NEAR ANY THUNDERSTORMS.                     
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL DECREASE AROUND THE END OF THE WEEK AS               
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES CLOSER TO THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO.               
LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS AND LOW SEAS CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH THE                
EXTENDED FORECAST.                                                              
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL  78  89  79  90 /  30  50  20  30                           
BROWNSVILLE          78  90  78  92 /  30  50  20  30                           
HARLINGEN            77  92  78  93 /  30  50  20  30                           
MCALLEN              77  93  78  95 /  30  50  20  30                           
RIO GRANDE CITY      76  94  76  95 /  30  30  10  10                           
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND   80  86  80  86 /  30  50  20  30                           
&&                                                                              
.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 4 AM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR TXZ248-249-252-             
     253.                                                                       
GM...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:                                   
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BROWNSVILLE                                              
PUBLIC/GRIDS...61                                                               
AVIATION/MARINE/MESO...60                                                       
</pre> tx                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX                                          
120 PM CDT TUE AUG 19 2008                                                      
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO DOMINATE WEST CENTRAL TEXAS FOR THE                    
REMAINDER OF TODAY AND MOST OF TONIGHT. SEE AVIATION BELOW FOR                  
DETAILS.                                                                        
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO REDEVELOP ACROSS MUCH                
OF WEST CENTRAL TEXAS THIS AFTERNOON AS AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW MOVES                
SLOWLY EAST ALONG THE RED RIVER VALLEY NEAR WICHITA FALLS. THE BEST             
CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE MAINLY ALONG AND                
NORTHEAST OF A LINE FROM SWEETWATER TO SAN SABA. AFTER MIDNIGHT                 
TONIGHT...LOOK FOR MAINLY RAIN SHOWERS AND MVFR CEILINGS TO                     
DOMINATE WEST CENTRAL TEXAS. BY SUNRISE TOMORROW MORNING...EXPECT               
MAINLY OVERCAST CEILINGS WITH BASES AROUND 1200 FEET ABOVE GROUND               
LEVEL TO DOMINATE WEST CENTRAL TEXAS. HOWEVER...SOME AREAS MAY                  
HAVE TEMPORARY IFR CEILINGS WITH BASES AROUND 800 FEET ABOVE                    
GROUND LEVEL.                                                                   
23/HUBER                                                                        
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1206 PM CDT TUE AUG 19 2008/                        
UPDATE...                                                                       
ADJUSTED SKY...WEATHER...POPS...AND QPF GRIDS FOR THE REMAINDER OF              
TODAY. LATEST ZONE PRODUCT REFLECTS THESE CHANCES. SEE DISCUSSION               
BELOW FOR DETAILS.                                                              
DISCUSSION...                                                                   
LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A SIGNIFICANT DRY SLOT OVER ALL                
BUT OUR BIG COUNTRY COUNTIES. LATEST RUC DOES INDICATE A WEAK 500               
VORTICITY MAX WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS OUR CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN               
COUNTIES LATER THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...RUC SOUNDING                           
DATA...CENTERED ON SAN ANGELO...INDICATE PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES              
DECREASE THIS AFTERNOON. THUS...DECIDED TO ADJUST POPS ACROSS                   
MAINLY OUR CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN COUNTIES TO REFLECT A CHANCE (30                
TO 50 PERCENT) FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE REMAINDER OF               
TODAY. ALSO...BASED ON VISIBLE SATELLITE TRENDS OVER THE LAST                   
COUPLE HOURS...ADJUSTED SKY GRIDS FOR THE REMAINDER OF TODAY.                   
TEMPERATURES LOOKED ON TRACK.                                                   
23/HUBER                                                                        
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 617 AM CDT TUE AUG 19 2008/                          
UPDATE...                                                                       
SEE AVIATION SECTION FOR 12Z TAFS.                                              
AVIATION...                                                                     
STRATUS WITH MVFR/IFR CIGS INCREASE TO VFR BY EARLY AFTERNOON.                  
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAY BRING                          
CIGS/VISIBILITES BACK INTO IFR/MVFR THIS AFTERNOON FOR SHORT                    
AMOUNTS OF TIME. BEST CHANCES OF RAIN AT KABI AND KBBD.                         
OTHERWISE...LIGHT WINDS WILL BECOME NORTH THIS MORNING...5 TO 10                
MPH AS A WEAK COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL                
REMAIN OVER THE REGION TONIGHT AND HAVE STRATUS WITH MVFR CIGS                  
COMING BACK THIS EVENING AT KABI AND TOWARD/AFTER MIDNIGHT FOR                  
THE REST OF THE TAF SITES.                                                      
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 340 AM CDT TUE AUG 19 2008/                          
DISCUSSION...                                                                   
UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT HAS BROUGHT WELCOME RAINFALL TO WEST CENTRAL               
TEXAS CONTINUES TO CHURN OVER NORTHWEST TEXAS EARLY THIS MORNING.               
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO AFFECT SOUTHWESTERN              
OK...NORTH AND NORTHWEST TEXAS. MOST OF THE ACTIVITY IS EITHER                  
NORTH AND EAST OF THE LOW...OR CONCENTRATED WITHIN THE CORE OF THE              
PARENT LOW. WEST OF THE LOW IN DRYING NORTH/NORTHWEST FLOW...                   
WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS EARLIER THIS EVENING DISSIPATED AS               
THEY MADE THEIR WAY INTO THE CWA...AND THIS TREND CAN BE SEEN WITH              
NEW DEVELOPMENT NORTHWEST OF THE CWA AS WELL.                                   
WILL CANCEL THE FFA FOR THE BIG COUNTRY FOR THE REST OF THIS                    
MORNING...WITH MOST OF THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY EXPECTED TO                    
REMAIN JUST NORTH AND EAST OF OUR COUNTIES THROUGH THE REST OF                  
THE MORNING HOURS. HOWEVER...IF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW DRIFTS TO THE               
SOUTH INSTEAD OF ON ITS PRESENT COURSE TO THE EAST/SOUTHEAST...                 
MORE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL TAKE PLACE IN THE BIG COUNTRY.                  
SO...WE WILL CONTINUE TO CLOSELY MONITOR THIS.                                  
FOR THE REST OF TODAY...WITH THE EXPECTED TRACK OF THE LOW MAINLY               
TO THE EAST...THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL SHOULD ALSO REMAIN EAST OF OUR              
FORECAST AREA. THE CENTER OF THE 500MB LOW MAY BRUSH OUR NORTHERN               
COUNTIES. THIS SHOULD BRING SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS                 
INTO THE BIG COUNTRY. STORMS WILL LIKELY TRACK TO THE                           
SOUTH/SOUTHEAST WITH THE BIG COUNTRY JUST WEST OF THE MAIN LOW.                 
WHILE THERE MAY BE LOCALIZED FLOODING...THE EXPECTED MOVEMENT OF                
STORMS SHOULD MINIMIZE THE THREAT ENOUGH TO PRECLUDE A FLASH FLOOD              
WATCH. CHANCES ARE LIKELY FOR THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE                          
HEARTLAND/NORTHWEST HILL COUNTRY AREAS AS WELL AS A WEAK COLD                   
FRONT MOVES SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA...SPARKING CONVECTION AS                     
DAYTIME HEATING OCCURS LATER. HERE AGAIN...MOVEMENT SHOULD BE                   
ENOUGH TO KEEP THE THREAT OF FLASH FLOODING TO LOCAL AREAS.                     
ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE CWA...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION IS                  
POSSIBLE WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND A SHORTWAVE EXPECTED TO PASS                  
OVER THE AREA. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE COOLER ACROSS THE BIG                     
COUNTRY THAN THE REST OF THE AREA WITH MORE CLOUDCOVER AND/OR                   
THUNDERSTORMS. COULD SEE QUITE A FEW BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS ACROSS                
THE SOUTHWESTERN 1/3 OF THE FORECAST AREA AS SLIGHTLY DRIER                     
NORTHWEST FLOW MOVES IN. HAVE GENERALLY GONE JUST WARMER THAN MAV               
MOS NUMBERS.                                                                    
THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LINGERS INTO TONIGHT FOR               
THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL               
BE SLOW TO MOVE NORTHEAST. BUT THE GENERAL TREND WILL BE FOR                    
DECREASING AREAL COVERAGE THROUGH THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS.                      
FOR THE LONG TERM. AFTER THE LOW MOVES AWAY...RIDGING WILL BUILD                
BACK IN FROM THE WEST AND TEMPERATURES WILL WARM BACK UP TO NEAR                
NORMAL READINGS BY THURSDAY. WILL HAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS               
AND THUNDERSTORMS IN FOR SUNDAY ACROSS THE NORTHWEST HILL COUNTRY.              
THE RIDGE MAY BE WEAKENED SOME BY THE REMNANTS OF /FAY/ AS THEY                 
MOVE NORTH THROUGH THE U.S. DEEP SOUTH. WEAK SHORTWAVES MAY ROTATE              
THROUGH IN NORTHERLY FLOW GIVING OUR SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES A                    
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.                                    
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
ABILENE  65  85  65  92  70 /  20  20  10  10   0                               
SAN ANGELO  64  87  64  91  68 /  10  10  10   0   0                            
JUNCTION  65  88  67  91  70 /  20  10  10  10   0                              
&&                                                                              
.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
NONE.                                                                           
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
23/HUBER                                                                        
</pre> tx                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX                                          
1206 PM CDT TUE AUG 19 2008                                                     
.UPDATE...                                                                      
ADJUSTED SKY...WEATHER...POPS...AND QPF GRIDS FOR THE REMAINDER OF              
TODAY. LATEST ZONE PRODUCT REFLECTS THESE CHANCES. SEE DISCUSSION               
BELOW FOR DETAILS.                                                              
&&                                                                              
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A SIGNIFICANT DRY SLOT OVER ALL                
BUT OUR BIG COUNTRY COUNTIES. LATEST RUC DOES INDICATE A WEAK 500               
VORTICITY MAX WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS OUR CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN               
COUNTIES LATER THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...RUC SOUNDING                           
DATA...CENTERED ON SAN ANGELO...INDICATE PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES              
DECREASE THIS AFTERNOON. THUS...DECIDED TO ADJUST POPS ACROSS                   
MAINLY OUR CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN COUNTIES TO REFLECT A CHANCE (30                
TO 50 PERCENT) FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE REMAINDER OF               
TODAY. ALSO...BASED ON VISIBLE SATELLITE TRENDS OVER THE LAST                   
COUPLE HOURS...ADJUSTED SKY GRIDS FOR THE REMAINDER OF TODAY.                   
TEMPERATURES LOOKED ON TRACK.                                                   
23/HUBER                                                                        
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 617 AM CDT TUE AUG 19 2008/                         
UPDATE...                                                                       
SEE AVIATION SECTION FOR 12Z TAFS.                                              
AVIATION...                                                                     
STRATUS WITH MVFR/IFR CIGS INCREASE TO VFR BY EARLY AFTERNOON.                  
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAY BRING                          
CIGS/VISIBILITES BACK INTO IFR/MVFR THIS AFTERNOON FOR SHORT                    
AMOUNTS OF TIME. BEST CHANCES OF RAIN AT KABI AND KBBD.                         
OTHERWISE...LIGHT WINDS WILL BECOME NORTH THIS MORNING...5 TO 10                
MPH AS A WEAK COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL                
REMAIN OVER THE REGION TONIGHT AND HAVE STRATUS WITH MVFR CIGS                  
COMING BACK THIS EVENING AT KABI AND TOWARD/AFTER MIDNIGHT FOR                  
THE REST OF THE TAF SITES.                                                      
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 340 AM CDT TUE AUG 19 2008/                          
DISCUSSION...                                                                   
UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT HAS BROUGHT WELCOME RAINFALL TO WEST CENTRAL               
TEXAS CONTINUES TO CHURN OVER NORTHWEST TEXAS EARLY THIS MORNING.               
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO AFFECT SOUTHWESTERN              
OK...NORTH AND NORTHWEST TEXAS. MOST OF THE ACTIVITY IS EITHER                  
NORTH AND EAST OF THE LOW...OR CONCENTRATED WITHIN THE CORE OF THE              
PARENT LOW. WEST OF THE LOW IN DRYING NORTH/NORTHWEST FLOW...                   
WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS EARLIER THIS EVENING DISSIPATED AS               
THEY MADE THEIR WAY INTO THE CWA...AND THIS TREND CAN BE SEEN WITH              
NEW DEVELOPMENT NORTHWEST OF THE CWA AS WELL.                                   
WILL CANCEL THE FFA FOR THE BIG COUNTRY FOR THE REST OF THIS                    
MORNING...WITH MOST OF THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY EXPECTED TO                    
REMAIN JUST NORTH AND EAST OF OUR COUNTIES THROUGH THE REST OF                  
THE MORNING HOURS. HOWEVER...IF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW DRIFTS TO THE               
SOUTH INSTEAD OF ON ITS PRESENT COURSE TO THE EAST/SOUTHEAST...                 
MORE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL TAKE PLACE IN THE BIG COUNTRY.                  
SO...WE WILL CONTINUE TO CLOSELY MONITOR THIS.                                  
FOR THE REST OF TODAY...WITH THE EXPECTED TRACK OF THE LOW MAINLY               
TO THE EAST...THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL SHOULD ALSO REMAIN EAST OF OUR              
FORECAST AREA. THE CENTER OF THE 500MB LOW MAY BRUSH OUR NORTHERN               
COUNTIES. THIS SHOULD BRING SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS                 
INTO THE BIG COUNTRY. STORMS WILL LIKELY TRACK TO THE                           
SOUTH/SOUTHEAST WITH THE BIG COUNTRY JUST WEST OF THE MAIN LOW.                 
WHILE THERE MAY BE LOCALIZED FLOODING...THE EXPECTED MOVEMENT OF                
STORMS SHOULD MINIMIZE THE THREAT ENOUGH TO PRECLUDE A FLASH FLOOD              
WATCH. CHANCES ARE LIKELY FOR THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE                          
HEARTLAND/NORTHWEST HILL COUNTRY AREAS AS WELL AS A WEAK COLD                   
FRONT MOVES SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA...SPARKING CONVECTION AS                     
DAYTIME HEATING OCCURS LATER. HERE AGAIN...MOVEMENT SHOULD BE                   
ENOUGH TO KEEP THE THREAT OF FLASH FLOODING TO LOCAL AREAS.                     
ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE CWA...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION IS                  
POSSIBLE WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND A SHORTWAVE EXPECTED TO PASS                  
OVER THE AREA. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE COOLER ACROSS THE BIG                     
COUNTRY THAN THE REST OF THE AREA WITH MORE CLOUDCOVER AND/OR                   
THUNDERSTORMS. COULD SEE QUITE A FEW BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS ACROSS                
THE SOUTHWESTERN 1/3 OF THE FORECAST AREA AS SLIGHTLY DRIER                     
NORTHWEST FLOW MOVES IN. HAVE GENERALLY GONE JUST WARMER THAN MAV               
MOS NUMBERS.                                                                    
THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LINGERS INTO TONIGHT FOR               
THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL               
BE SLOW TO MOVE NORTHEAST. BUT THE GENERAL TREND WILL BE FOR                    
DECREASING AREAL COVERAGE THROUGH THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS.                      
FOR THE LONG TERM. AFTER THE LOW MOVES AWAY...RIDGING WILL BUILD                
BACK IN FROM THE WEST AND TEMPERATURES WILL WARM BACK UP TO NEAR                
NORMAL READINGS BY THURSDAY. WILL HAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS               
AND THUNDERSTORMS IN FOR SUNDAY ACROSS THE NORTHWEST HILL COUNTRY.              
THE RIDGE MAY BE WEAKENED SOME BY THE REMNANTS OF /FAY/ AS THEY                 
MOVE NORTH THROUGH THE U.S. DEEP SOUTH. WEAK SHORTWAVES MAY ROTATE              
THROUGH IN NORTHERLY FLOW GIVING OUR SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES A                    
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.                                    
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
ABILENE  79  65  85  65  92 /  60  20  20  10  10                               
SAN ANGELO  84  64  87  64  91 /  40  10  10  10   0                            
JUNCTION  83  65  88  67  91 /  40  20  10  10  10                              
&&                                                                              
.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
NONE.                                                                           
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
23/HUBER                                                                        
</pre> tx                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX                                            
1143 PM CDT MON AUG 18 2008                                                     
.AVIATION...                                                                    
BROUGHT IN LOW CLOUDS AND BR TO ALL TAF SITES OVERNIGHT BASED ON                
CURRENT TRENDS...PLUS WET GROUND AND LIGHT WINDS SHOULD ALSO ASSIST             
IN PRODUCTION OF FOG. KEPT IN MENTION OF PRECIP BUT TIMING AT ANY ONE           
SITE IS DIFFICULT SINCE UPPER LOW IS POSITIONED OVER SERN TX PNHDL.             
LOW CONFIDENCE IN PRECIPITATION. GRADUALLY IMPROVING CONDITIONS LATE            
IN THE TAF FCST PERIOD AS UPPER LOW MOVES FURTHER E AND S.                      
ANDRADE                                                                         
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 936 PM CDT MON AUG 18 2008/                         
UPDATE...                                                                       
PLAN ON CONTINUING FLASH FLOOD WATCH THRU 12Z TUESDAY FOR ENTIRE                
FORECAST AREA AS PRECIP CONTINUES TO PINWHEEL AROUND UPPER LOW WHICH            
APPEARS TO BE CENTERED IN SERN TX PNHDL. RAISED POPS SOME ACROSS THE            
BOARD AND REVERTED TO AREAL QUALIFIERS REST OF TONIGHT. UPDATED                 
PRODUCTS OUT AS SOON AS POSSIBLE.                                               
ANDRADE                                                                         
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 608 PM CDT MON AUG 18 2008/                          
AVIATION...                                                                     
00 UTC TAFS...MAIN AVIATION CONCERNS CENTER ON CIGS/VISIBILITIES AND            
PRECIP TRENDS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.                                      
LARGE UPPER LOW WAS OVER THE PANHANDLES. STRONG LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH            
THIS LOW RESULTED IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF THE               
PANHANDLES. RADAR LOOPS SHOW STORMS MOVING AROUND THE UPPER LOW WITH            
ADDITIONAL STORMS EXPECTED THIS EVENING. MVFR AND IFR CIGS AND                  
VISIBILITIES ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE STORMS. THE UPPER LOW SLOWLY HEADS           
TO THE SOUTH WHICH WILL KEEP PRECIP CHANCES IN AT DHT AND GUY THROUGH           
LATE MORNING BEFORE VFR CONDITIONS RETURN BY EARLY AFTERNOON. RAIN              
CHANCES WILL LINGER LONGER AT AMA AS THE LOW SLOWLY LEAVES THE AREA.            
CLK                                                                             
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 344 PM CDT MON AUG 18 2008/                          
DISCUSSION...                                                                   
MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS CENTER ON PRECIP CHANCES IN THE SHORT TERM.              
LARGE CUTOFF UPPER LOW CENTERED OVER THE TEXAS/OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES              
PER CURRENT SATELLITE IMAGERY WILL SLOWLY DRIFT TO THE SOUTHEAST.               
CURRENT RADAR LOOPS SHOW SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING IN                  
IN AREAS WHERE THERE WERE SOME BREAKS IN LOW CLOUD DECK AND WHERE               
INSTABILITY IS A BIT STRONGER. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL                   
INCREASE IN COVERAGE TONIGHT WITH STRONG LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER             
LOW. AMA 12Z SOUNDING INDICATES 25-30 KT WINDS AROUND 400 MB WHICH              
MAY SUPPORT MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS THIS EVENING ALTHOUGH SPC RUC              
MESOSCALE ANAYLSIS SHOWS WEAK MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. AT ANY RATE...             
MAIN THREAT FROM THE STORMS WILL BE HEAVY RAINFALL ONCE AGAIN SO                
HAVE CONTINUED FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 12Z TUE.                                 
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN TIMING OF THE UPPER LOW AS IT HEADS             
TOWARD THE RED RIVER VALLEY TUE AND SLOWLY LIFTS NORTH INTO THE                 
CENTRAL PLAINS TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK. RETAINED POPS DURING THE             
DAY AS DEFORMATION BAND SWINGS ACROSS THE CWA. WENT WITH THE COOLER             
MOS GUIDANCE ON TEMPS TUE DUE TO EXPANSIVE LOW CLOUD DECK WITH                  
HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 70S. WITH THE UPPER LOW LIFTING TO THE NORTH...             
DRY WEATHER WILL RETURN TO THE CWA WED THROUGH FRI. TEMPS WILL                  
REBOUND BACK INTO THE 80S AND 90S DURING THIS PERIOD AS SURFACE                 
WINDS BACK AROUND TO THE SOUTH.                                                 
MADE VERY LITTLE CHANGES TO THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AS NEXT               
SIGNIFICANT UPPER TROUGH SLIDES ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA. A COLD                  
FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE PANHANDLES FRI NIGHT/SAT MORNING AND CAN            
BRING THE NEXT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.                             
CLK                                                                             
FIRE WEATHER...                                                                 
BESIDES LIGHTNING FROM THUNDERSTORMS...FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL               
REMAIN LOW THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS DUE TO LIGHT WINDS...HIGH                    
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES AND SATURATED SOILS.                                        
CLK                                                                             
&&                                                                              
.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 AM CDT TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING                 
     ZONES: ARMSTRONG...CARSON...COLLINGSWORTH...DALLAM...DEAF                  
     SMITH...DONLEY...GRAY...HANSFORD...HARTLEY...HEMPHILL...                   
     HUTCHINSON...LIPSCOMB...MOORE...OCHILTREE...OLDHAM...                      
     POTTER...RANDALL...ROBERTS...SHERMAN...WHEELER.                            
OK...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 AM CDT TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING                 
     ZONES: BEAVER...CIMARRON...TEXAS.                                          
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</pre> tx                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA                                             
300 PM PDT WED AUG 20 2008                                                      
.SYNOPSIS...SHOWERY AND BREEZY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT AND                
THURSDAY MORNING AS A COOL UPPER TROUGH MOVES ACROSS WESTERN                    
WASHINGTON. THE WEATHER WILL IMPROVE GRADUALLY THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS            
A WEAK UPPER RIDGE MOVES INTO THE OFFSHORE WATERS. DRY WEATHER AND              
MORE SUNSHINE IS EXPECTED FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS THE UPPER RIDGE                
CROSSES THE REGION. A WEAK FRONT WILL ARRIVE SUNDAY OR MONDAY.                  
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM...SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUE ACROSS WESTERN WASHINGTON              
AS COOL MOIST AIR STREAMS INTO THE AIR BEHIND LAST NIGHT`S COLD                 
FRONT. BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA AS WELL...AS             
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS WEAKLY OVER THE REGION.                            
THE PARENT UPPER LOW IS NEAR 50N/131W AND MOVING SLOWLY EAST. THE               
FRONTAL WAVE THAT DEVELOPED OFF THE NORTH COAST OF OREGON IS LIFTING            
NORTHEAST INTO THE AREA...AND AN UPPER SHORTWAVE MOVING INTO THE                
BASE OF THE TROUGH WILL CROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. THE UPPER LOW WILL              
SWING INLAND LATE TONIGHT. AS IT BEGINS TO MOVE EAST OF THE AREA...             
ANOTHER UPPER SHORTWAVE ROTATING THROUGH ITS SOUTHWEST QUADRANT WILL            
DIG ACROSS WESTERN WASHINGTON THURSDAY MORNING. THESE FEATURES WILL             
KEEP SHOWERY WEATHER OVER THE AREA THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING WITH                
LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS. THE SNOW LEVEL WILL FALL TO AROUND 6500             
FT WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE TROUGH.                                              
SHOWERS SO FAR TODAY HAVE ADDED SOME TO THE RAINFALL TOTALS SO                  
FAR...WITH GENERALLY .75 TO 1.50 INCHES ALONG THE COAST AND 1.50 TO             
3.00 INCHES OVER MUCH OF THE OLYMPIC MOUNTAINS. AMOUNTS IN THE                  
WESTERN WASHINGTON INTERIOR HAVE MOSTLY RANGED FROM 0.25 TO 1.00                
INCH. IN THE CASCADES MOST SITES HAVE RECEIVED 0.75 TO 1.50 INCHES              
OF PRECIPITATION...BUT THE CASCADES WILL BE THE WETTEST REGION OF               
THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT AND THURSDAY AS MOIST WESTERLY FLOW                   
PRODUCES OROGRAPHIC ENHANCEMENT. ANOTHER 0.75 TO 1.75 INCHES IS                 
LIKELY IN THE CASCADES DURING THAT TIME...WITH UP TO ANOTHER INCH OR            
SO OVER THE WEST SLOPES OF THE OLYMPICS.                                        
AS THE UPPER TROUGH HEADS EAST OF THE CASCADES BY MIDDAY THURSDAY...            
A WEAK UPPER RIDGE WILL MOVE INTO THE OFFSHORE WATERS. HOWEVER                  
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO WESTERN WASHINGTON FROM THE                 
SOUTHWEST WILL PROBABLY RESULT IN A PUGET SOUND CONVERGENCE ZONE. SO            
SCATTERED SHOWERS CAN BE EXPECTED THURSDAY AFTERNOON ALONG WITH SOME            
SUN BREAKS AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.                                       
THE WEAK UPPER RIDGE WILL PROGRESS ACROSS WESTERN WASHINGTON ON                 
FRIDAY...WHICH SHOULD BRING FURTHER IMPROVEMENT. THE DAY WILL LIKELY            
BEGIN WITH AREAS OF MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND PROBABLY SOME FOG AS                 
WELL. AND THE SOUTH END OF A WEAK WARM FRONT WILL BRUSH THE OFFSHORE            
WATERS IN THE AFTERNOON...WHICH COULD CONTRIBUTE SOME HIGH CLOUD                
COVER. EITHER PARTLY SUNNY OR MOSTLY SUNNY LOOKS LIKE THE RIGHT                 
FORECAST FOR FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BOUNCE BACK SOMEWHAT BUT                 
STILL BE A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.                                            
SATURDAY WILL PROBABLY BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE NEXT WEEK. THE                 
RIDGE WILL MOVE TO THE EAST...AND THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL BACK TO             
THE SOUTHWEST. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL BE SLOWLY MOVING TOWARD THE               
PACIFIC NORTHWEST BUT REMAIN WELL OFFSHORE. MCDONNAL/DAMICO                     
.LONG TERM...GFS AND EURO IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT SAGGING THE                    
APPROACHING FRONTAL SYSTEM SATURDAY NIGHT OVER THE WESTERN PORTION              
OF THE CWA SUNDAY.  MONDAY LOOKS POST-FRONTAL WITH SHOWERS AND BELOW            
NORMAL TEMPERATURES...BUT DISCREPANCIES BEGIN TO CREEP INTO LONG                
RANGE MODELS AT THIS POINT. UNDER ZONAL FLOW EURO BRINGS A WEAK                 
SURFACE LOW INTO WESTERN WASHINGTON WEDNESDAY MORNING...WHILE GFS               
DEVELOPS A UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT PASSES RIGHT OVER US AND DRIVES              
SURFACE LOW TOWARDS OREGON LATE TUESDAY. DUE TO DISCREPANCIES...HAVE            
KEPT TUE-WED DRY AND JUST A BIT ON THE COOL SIDE BUT LATER SHIFTS               
WILL LIKELY HAVE TO INTRODUCE AT LEAST CHANCE POPS. DAMICO/MCDONNAL             
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...THE UPPER LEVEL TROF AND SFC TROF WILL WORK EAST THRU               
WRN WA OVERNIGHT. SHOWERS ALONG THE COAST TODAY WERE PUSHING INTO               
PUGET SOUND EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...VSBY LCLLY DROPPING TO 2SM IN MDT            
RAIN. SHOWERS WITH AREAS OF MVFR WILL CONTINUE TO WORK THRU WRN WA              
THRU EVENING. ONSHORE FLOW SHUD KEEP CONDITIONS FROM IMPROVING MUCH             
THRU THU MORNING. MTNS OBSCD. 19                                                
KSEA...SHOWERS AT TIMES THRU THU MORNING. CHANCE OF A PSCZ THU                  
AFTERNOON SO WINDS MAY SHIFT FROM BREEZY SLY TONIGHT AND THU MORNING            
TO NLY THU EVENING. OF NOTE IS THE WLY JETSTREAM ARND 115KT CENTERED            
OVER SW WA THIS EVENING. A JET STREAK NEAR 50N/140W THIS AFTERNOON              
ROUNDS THE BASE OF THE TROF AND MOVES OVER WRN WA THU MORNING WITH              
THE GFS SHOWING WNW 130KT INTO THE SOUTH WA COAST AT 12Z THEN                   
LIFTING NORTH AND WEAKENING A BIT THU AFTERNOON. THE STRONG                     
JETSTREAM MOVES INLAND BY FRIDAY AS THE UPPER TROF MOVES INLAND AND             
HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO THE REGION. 19                                            
&&                                                                              
.MARINE...GRADIENTS WEAKENED INTO MIDDAY TODAY BUT WILL INCREASE                
THIS EVENING. THE RUC MODEL SHOWS PDX-BLI OF JUST +2MB GETTING BACK             
TO ARND +4.5MB AT 6PM THIS EVENING AS THE TROF WORKS OVER WRN WA.               
WLY SWELL WILL BE COMING UP COASTAL WATERS AND WEST ENTRANCE TO THE             
STRAIT TONIGHT...SO THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES FOR BREEZY SLIES WILL            
PROBABLY BE REPLACED WITH AN ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS ON THU. 19             
&&                                                                              
.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
.SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ALL WATERS EXCEPT CENTRAL STRAIT.                     
.SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH/SEVERE BAR CONDITIONS GRAYS HARBOR              
BAR.                                                                            
$$                                                                              
</pre> wa                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI                                           
257 PM CDT WED AUG 20 2008                                                      
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY                                          
MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS ARE PRECIPITATION CHANCES THURSDAY INTO                  
SATURDAY.                                                                       
LATEST WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATING UPPER LEVEL CUT-OFF             
LOW OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND MOISTURE STREAMING SLOWLY                      
NORTHWARD INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS STATES. LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE              
IMAGERY INDICATING STRATUS DECK OVER WESTERN...CENTRAL AND EASTERN              
WISCONSIN DISSIPATING...AS DAYTIME HEATING HAS ALLOWED INVERSION                
TO WEAKEN AND MIX OUT PER LATEST RUC SOUNDINGS. LATEST 19Z SURFACE              
ANALYSIS INDICATING HIGH PRESSURE OVER EASTERN MICHIGAN.                        
LATEST 20.12Z GFS AND NAM ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT IN LIFTING AND             
WEAKENING UPPER LEVEL CUT-OFF LOW NORTHWARD INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST BY           
00Z FRIDAY. THOUGH BOTH MODELS INDICATING A SLIGHTLY FASTER                     
MOVEMENT NORTHWARD WITH UPPER LEVEL LOW THAN PREVIOUS RUNS. THIS                
IS EVIDENT IN CLOUD TRENDS PER LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE AND BOTH THE            
20.12Z GFS AND NAM MOISTURE FIELDS HANDLING THE MOISTURE ADVECTION              
WELL. BOTH MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH OVERALL UPPER LEVEL                  
PATTERN THROUGH PERIOD...AS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER PACIFIC NORTHWEST           
BREAKS DOWN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND MOVES INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST AND              
GREAT LAKES REGION BY 00Z SATURDAY. WITH NO REAL SIGNIFICANT                    
DIFFERENCES SEEN IN EITHER MODEL...CONFIDENCE THROUGH FORECAST IS               
MODERATE.                                                                       
TONIGHT...MOISTURE ON NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE            
CENTRAL PLAINS WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT NORTHWARD INTO THE SOUTHERN              
FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING AND INTO TONIGHT. BOTH MODELS HANDLING               
MOISTURE WELL AND ARE MUCH FASTER IN LIFTING MOISTURE INTO FORECAST             
AREA OVERNIGHT THAN PREVIOUS RUNS. HAVE INCREASED SKY CONDITION...              
ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA.                                       
BOTH THE 20.12Z GFS AND NAM CONTINUE TO PHASE UPPER LEVEL LOW INTO              
THE NORTHERN STREAM BY 06Z FRIDAY. BOTH MODELS INDICATE UPPER LEVEL             
LOW TO WEAKEN AS IT MOVES NORTH INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST AND GREAT                
LAKES REGION. THOUGH...MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE DECENT MOISTURE              
CONVERGENCE AND THETA E CONVERGENCE AT 850MB IN ASSOCIATION WITH                
UPPER LEVEL LOW. WITH THE PROGRESSION UPPER LEVEL LOW SLIGHTLY FASTER           
THAN PREVIOUS RUNS...HAVE INCREASED PRECIPITATION CHANCES ACROSS                
MUCH OF FORECAST AREA DURING THE DAY THURSDAY. THE 20.12Z GFS AND               
NAM CONTINUE TO INDICATE LIMITED INSTABILITY WITH 300 TO 400 J/KG               
MOST UNSTABLE CAPE IN THE 0-6 KM LAYER. WILL CONTINUE WITH PREVIOUS             
FORECAST MENTION OF ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY               
NIGHT.                                                                          
AS UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES NORTH...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER PACIFIC                
NORTHWEST BREAKS DOWN RIDGE AND TRACKS INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS BY              
12Z FRIDAY. WITH BEST LIFT AND MOISTURE CONVERGENCE MOVING NORTH                
WITH UPPER LEVEL LOW...HAVE REMOVED PRECIPITATION CHANCES IN THE 12-            
18Z FRIDAY TIMEFRAME ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA. SURFACE COLD             
FRONT IN ASSOCIATION WITH UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE PACIFIC                   
NORTHWEST MOVES ACROSS FORECAST AREA BY 18Z SATURDAY. BOTH MODELS               
INDICATE PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES INCREASING TO 1.5 TO 2 INCHES OUT            
AHEAD OF UPPER LEVEL TROUGH/SURFACE FRONT...COMBINED WITH STRONG                
MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ALONG FRONT. HAVE CONTINUED PREVIOUS                       
PRECIPITATION CHANCES IN THE LIKELY CATEGORY FRIDAY NIGHT.                      
.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY                                   
MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS ARE TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE                 
20.00Z ECMWF AND GFS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN BUILDING UPPER                    
RIDGE INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES REGION BY 00Z MONDAY.              
MAIN DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE MODELS IS GFS IS MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH              
OVERALL UPPER LEVEL PATTERN THAN ECMWF THROUGH PERIOD...AS ECMWF IS             
MORE AMPLIFIED WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND SLOWER IN MOVING UPPER                
LEVEL TROUGH INTO THE NORTHEAST U.S. EARLY IN THE PERIOD AND                    
BREAKING DOWN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE LATE IN THE PERIOD. 20.00Z GFS IS               
SLIGHTLY FASTER IN MOVING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EAST OF THE                        
FORECAST AREA EARLY IN THE PERIOD AND BREAKING DOWN RIDGE LATE IN THE           
PERIOD. THE 20.00Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN INDICATE A SLOWER SOLUTION OF              
MOVING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH INTO THE NORTHEAST U.S. EARLY IN THE PERIOD           
AND BREAK DOWN OF UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. LATE IN THE           
PERIOD. BASED ON ECMWF AND GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN IN RELATIVE                        
GOOD AGREEMENT WITH OVERALL UPPER LEVEL PATTERN THROUGH                         
PERIOD...CONFIDENCE IN FORECAST IS MODERATE. WITH GOOD SUBSIDENCE               
UNDERNEATH UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND BOTH THE 20.00Z GFS AND ECMWF                  
INDICATING 850MB TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM PLUS 12 DEGREES TO PLUS 15           
DEGREES CELSIUS ACROSS FORECAST AREA...THIS WILL ALLOW FOR DRY                  
WEATHER CONDITIONS AND SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE           
PERIOD.                                                                         
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
WITH THE LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING...THE OPEN CELLULAR CONVECTION WILL            
QUICKLY DISSIPATE BETWEEN 20.23Z AND 21.02Z. SOUTHERLY WINDS ON THE             
BACK SIDE OF A HIGH...LOCATED ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES LATE               
THIS AFTERNOON...WILL BRING A RETURN OF GULF MOISTURE BACK TO THE               
AREA. SOME HIGH CLOUDS WILL MOVE NORTHWARD INTO THE AREA THIS                   
EVENING AND THEN GRADUALLY BECOME THICKER AND LOWER LATE TONIGHT                
AND THURSDAY MORNING. THERE SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT MOISTURE...                    
INSTABILITY...AND LIFT FOR A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON             
THURSDAY AFTERNOON.                                                             
&&                                                                              
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
WI...NONE.                                                                      
MN...NONE.                                                                      
IA...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHORT/LONG TERM...DTJ                                                           
AVIATION..........BOYNE                                                         
</pre> wi                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI                                           
230 PM CDT TUE AUG 19 2008                                                      
.SHORT TERM...THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT                                              
PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS WERE WITH CLOUD TRENDS TONIGHT...THEN                 
RAIN CHANCES DURING THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK.                                
EARLY AFTERNOON SURFACE ANALYSIS HAD HIGH PRESSURE OVER NORTHERN                
GREAT LAKES...WHILE SUBTLE FRONT EXTENDED FROM NORTHERN IL INTO                 
SOUTHEAST MN. SURFACE DEW POINTS WERE A GOOD INDICATOR OF RELATIVE              
HUMIDITY GRADIENT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...WITH VALUES RANGING                
FROM MID 50S IN PARTS OF CENTRAL WI TO UPPER 60S IN NORTHEAST IOWA              
AND SOUTHEAST MN.                                                               
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATED STRATUS THAT AFFECTED PART OF               
FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING HAD DISSIPATED. HOWEVER...STRATUS STILL              
LINGERED ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN WI. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND 19.12Z             
UPPER AIR DATA INDICATED RIDGE ALOFT OVER UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.             
MEANWHILE...CLOSED 500MB LOW WAS SITUATED NEAR TX/OK BORDER...WITH              
MID LEVEL TROUGH CARVING OUT ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.                      
19.12Z NCEP AND EUROPEAN DETERMINISTIC MODELS WERE IN OVERALL GOOD              
AGREEMENT WITH REGARD TO UPPER LEVEL AND SURFACE FEATURES THROUGH               
23.00Z...FRIDAY EVENING. THEREFORE...CONFIDENCE HAS BEEN INCREASING             
THAT THE FORECAST AREA SHOULD RECEIVE RAIN DURING THE LATTER PART OF            
THE WEEK. THIS WAS ALSO CORROBORATED BY PROBABILITIES OF MEASURABLE             
QPF IN THE 19.09Z SREF DATA INCREASING TO 60-65 PERCENT BY FRIDAY.              
TONIGHT...LOW LEVEL SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW SUGGESTS STRATUS COULD DEVELOP           
AND EXPAND ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. IN FACT...BOUNDARY             
LAYER RELATIVE HUMIDITY IN LATEST RUC...NAM AND ARXMESOWRF INDICATED            
STRATUS SHOULD EMANATE FROM EASTERN WI...WHERE LOW CLOUDS CURRENTLY             
RESIDE. PROBABILITIES FOR LOW CLOUDS APPEAR TO BE HIGHEST ESPECIALLY            
FOR LOCATIONS ALONG AND EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. PLEASE                   
REFERENCE AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS.                     
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...NCEP DATA SUITE HAS TRENDED TOWARD A              
SOONER ARRIVAL OF RAIN CHANCES ON THURSDAY ASSOCIATED WITH EJECTION             
OF SOUTHERN PLAINS MID LEVEL WAVE...WHICH EUROPEAN MODELS HAD                   
INDICATED PREVIOUSLY. AS A RESULT...CONFIDENCE WAS HIGH ENOUGH TO               
EXPAND RAIN CHANCE OVER A BIT MORE OF THE FORECAST AREA ON THURSDAY.            
AMPLE GULF MOISTURE EXPECTED TO BE BROUGHT NORTHWARD...AS EVIDENCED             
BY PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES POTENTIALLY REACHING 1.5-2.0 INCHES.               
EVEN SO...FORCING APPEARS TO BE WEAK...WHICH WAS INDICATED BY WEAK              
UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION SIGNAL IN TIME/HEIGHT CROSS SECTIONS. THUS...            
RAIN CHANCES WERE MAINTAINED IN THE LOW-END CHANCE CATEGORY AT THIS             
POINT...WHICH SEEMS REASONABLE.                                                 
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...RAIN PROBABILITIES INCREASE IN THIS TIME              
FRAME. IN FACT...SUFFICIENT FORCING ALONG APPROACHING COLD FRONT                
SUGGESTS RAIN CHANCES WILL PROBABLY WARRANT AN INCREASE FRIDAY NIGHT.           
AT THIS TIME...MAINTAINED RAIN CHANCES AS IN CURRENT DATA BASE...               
ALTHOUGH CONSISTENCY OF FORCING SIGNALS SHOULD LEND HIGHER CONFIDENCE           
FOR INCREASING RAIN CHANCES FRIDAY AND/OR FRIDAY NIGHT WITH                     
SUBSEQUENT FORECASTS.                                                           
.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY                                           
PRIMARY CONCERNS WERE WITH RAIN CHANCES LINGERING INTO SATURDAY                 
ASSOCIATED WITH PASSAGE OF COLD FRONT...THEN DRY WEATHER POTENTIAL              
THROUGH REST OF THE WEEKEND AND INTO FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK.                   
19.12Z DETERMINISTIC GFS AND ECMWF CONTINUED TO HAVE GOOD CONSENSUS             
CONCERNING OVERALL DETAILS OF UPPER LEVEL AND SURFACE WAVE ADVANCING            
ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA ON SATURDAY. AS A RESULT...SURFACE COLD FRONT            
ATTENDANT TO THIS SYSTEM APPEARS TO ADVANCE THROUGH THE FORECAST                
AREA SATURDAY MORNING.                                                          
DETERMINISTIC MODELS HAVE SUGGESTED FRONT SHOULD SCOUR CLOUDS AND               
RAIN OUT OF FORECAST AREA SATURDAY AFTERNOON. ON THE OTHER HAND...              
19.00Z GEFS SUPPORTED HIGH PROBABILITIES OF QPF LINGERING THROUGH THE           
DAY. CONFIDENCE WAS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO END RAIN CHANCES OVER ANY ONE            
PART OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS FAR AHEAD OF TIME. HOWEVER...OPTED TO            
TREND RAIN CHANCES DOWNWARD SATURDAY AFTERNOON.                                 
BASED ON CONSISTENCY IN DETERMINISTIC GFS AND ECMWF DATA SUITE...AS             
WELL AS 19.00Z GEFS...SIGNAL OF BUILDING RIDGE AT SURFACE AND ALOFT             
LENDS FAIRLY HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR A PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER SUNDAY INTO            
TUESDAY. CAVEAT TO THIS WOULD BE EVENTUAL TRACK OF REMAINS OF                   
TROPICAL STORM FAY...WHICH AT THIS TIME...REMAINS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN.             
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY                                               
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT ANOTHER AREA OF LAKE STRATUS IS            
MOVING INTO SOUTHEAST WISCONSIN THIS AFTERNOON. BOTH THE 19.12Z RUC             
AND NAM/WRF HAVE A FAIRLY GOOD HANDLE ON THE CLOUDS CURRENTLY. THEY             
SHOW THAT IFR/MVFR CLOUDS WILL SPREAD INTO SOUTHWEST...CENTRAL...AND            
WEST CENTRAL WISCONSIN THIS EVENING...AND THEN THEY MOVE NORTH INTO             
NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN DURING THE OVERNIGHT AS THE               
WINDS BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY ALOFT. KLSE LOOKS TO BE ON THE WESTERN              
EDGE...SO I WENT WITH A SCATTERED TO BROKEN 1500 FOOT DECK DURING               
THIS TIME PERIOD. THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA WILL SEE THE DIURNAL                
CLOUDS QUICKLY DISSIPATING BETWEEN 19/23Z AND 20.01Z.                           
BOTH THE GFS AND NAM/WRF MOS SUGGEST THAT DENSE FOG WILL DEVELOP AT             
KLSE IN THE 10Z TO 13Z TIME FRAME ON WEDNESDAY. WITH THE MOS WINDS              
AROUND 5 TO 7 KNOTS AND TEMPERATURE/DEW POINT SPREADS AT 3F OR                  
GREATER...I AM UNCLEAR WHETHER THIS WILL ACTUALLY OCCUR...SO I HAVE             
JUST KEPT 4SM BR IN THE KLSE BETWEEN 20.10Z AND 20.13Z.                         
&&                                                                              
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
WI...NONE.                                                                      
MN...NONE.                                                                      
IA...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHORT/LONG TERM...THOMPSON                                                      
AVIATION..........BOYNE                                                         
</pre> wi                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR                                         
1246 AM CDT THU AUG 21 2008                                                     
.AVIATION...                                                                    
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE ACROSS PARTS OF                     
NORTHERN AND SOUTHWESTERN ARKANSAS. LOWERED CEILINGS AND                        
VISIBILITY WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE MID MORNING. RAINFALL WILL                 
DIMINISH AND CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS.                    
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 955 PM CDT WED AUG 20 2008/                         
UPDATE...                                                                       
BULK OF RAINFALL HAS SHIFTED INTO NRN AR ATTM. THE UPR LOW WAS                  
NOTED OVR NERN OK EARLY THIS EVENING...WITH A SHRTWV VCNTY OF                   
SWRN AR. SCTD SHRA/ISOLD TSRA HAS PERSISTED OVR PARTS OF SWRN AR                
AND EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY TO SLOLY LIFT NWD OVERNIGHT AS THE UPR                 
SHRTWV LIFTS ACRS THE FA. BASED ON LATEST RUC/NAM DATA...FCST QPF               
AMOUNTS NOT AS HVY AS PREV INDCD...SO HAVE OPTED TO CANCEL THE FF               
WATCH. UPDATED HRLY TEMPS TO REFLECT CURRENT TRENDS. MIN TEMP FCST              
ON TRACK. NO OTHER CHGS TO GOING FCST. ALL UPDATES ARE OUT. /44/                
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 641 PM CDT WED AUG 20 2008/                          
AVIATION...                                                                     
FIRST ROUND OF RAINFALL MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHEAST...WITH THE                  
NEXT ROUND ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST. CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN MVFR TO                 
IFR THROUGH THE NIGHT...WITH LIFR CONDITIONS TOWARDS SUNRISE. AS                
THE SYSTEM BEGINS TO MOVE NORTHEAST THURSDAY...CONDITIONS WILL                  
GRADUALLY IMPROVE AFTER 15Z THURSDAY.                                           
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
BATESVILLE AR     80  71  85  71 /  60  50  20  20                              
CAMDEN AR         84  73  88  73 /  60  30  20  20                              
HARRISON AR       78  68  83  70 /  70  40  20  20                              
HOT SPRINGS AR    81  72  87  73 /  60  30  20  20                              
LITTLE ROCK   AR  82  72  86  73 /  60  40  20  20                              
MONTICELLO AR     85  73  89  72 /  60  40  20  20                              
MOUNT IDA AR      81  71  87  72 /  60  30  20  20                              
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  79  69  83  70 /  70  50  20  20                              
NEWPORT AR        81  71  86  71 /  60  50  20  20                              
PINE BLUFF AR     83  72  88  73 /  60  40  20  20                              
RUSSELLVILLE AR   79  70  85  71 /  60  40  20  20                              
SEARCY AR         81  71  86  72 /  60  50  20  20                              
STUTTGART AR      83  72  87  72 /  60  50  20  20                              
&&                                                                              
.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                        
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
AVIATION...60                                                                   
</pre> ar                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC                                          
538 AM EDT THU AUG 21 2008                                                      
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
TROPICAL CYCLONE FAY IS FORECAST TO MOVE WEST TO NORTHWEST OVER                 
PARTS OF NORTH FLORIDA THROUGH SAT. THE REMNANTS OF FAY SHOULD                  
MEANDER TO THE WEST OF OUR REGION THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT                    
WEEK.                                                                           
&&                                                                              
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...                                         
TROPICAL STORM FAY SHOULD BEGIN A WEST TO NORTHWEST DRIFT TODAY                 
WITH GUSTY ONSHORE WINDS INCREASING OVER OUR IMMEDIATE COASTAL                  
AREAS. OUR FLASH FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN IN A HOLDING PATTERN AS FAY               
STALLED...BUT OUR MOST SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS WILL BEGIN TO BE FELT                
TODAY WITH INCREASING RAINS...HEAVY AT TIMES ALONG WITH WINDY                   
COASTAL CONDITIONS. WIND GUSTS TO TROPICAL STORM FORCE ARE MOST                 
LIKELY ALONG BEACHES AND BARRIER ISLANDS OF GEORGIA LATER TODAY.                
BREEZY CONDITIONS SHOULD DEVELOP ALONG THE ALTAMAHA REGION THIS                 
AFTERNOON SUPPORTED BY 45-50 KT 950 MB FLOW FROM THE MODELS. WITH               
THE PRES GRAD SUPPORTED BY HIGH PRES TO THE N...DIURNAL SURGING                 
WILL ENHANCE BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS UP THROUGH CENTRAL COASTAL              
SOUTH CAROLINA AS WELL THIS AFTERNOON. SQUALLS IN THE VICINITY OF               
HEAVY TROPICAL SHOWERS WILL ENHANCE WINDS JUST ABOUT ANYWHERE                   
AS THE DAY WEARS ON.                                                            
LATEST MODELS INCLUDING THE RUC AND SREF INDICATE SHOWERS WILL                  
BEGIN TO BLOSSOM BY MID MORNING IF NOT SOONER. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS               
IN A SIGNIFICANT LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE PATTERN ALONG THE COAST                  
WILL SPREAD INLAND TODAY WITH HEAVY RAINFALL AT TIMES...ESPECIALLY              
IN EXTREME SOUTHERN SOUTH CAROLINA AND OVER SOUTHEAST GEORGIA. 2.5              
INCH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL BE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TWO                  
THIRDS OF OUR FORECAST AREA TODAY. ANOTHER CONCERN WILL BE THE                  
POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES THIS AFTERNOON. WIND FIELDS WILL               
BE PEAKING IN CONJUNCTION WITH SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS ON THE N               
SIDE OF THE MAIN CLOUD SHIELD. LARGE 0-3KM CAPES IN EXCESS OF 150               
J/KG ARE INDICATED ON NAM FORECAST SOUNDINGS. FORECAST HODOGRAPHS               
SUPPORT LOW-TOPPED SUPERCELLS BUT NAM SUGGESTS 0-1KM EHI VALUES                 
WILL REMAIN FAIRLY LOW. A POTENTIALLY INCREASING RISK FOR TROPICAL              
SPAWNED TORNADOES EXISTS LATER TODAY.                                           
LAKE WINDS...A TIGHTENING GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN            
FROM THE NORTH AND TROPICAL STORM FAY LINGERING TO THE SOUTH WILL               
ALLOW WINDS AT LAKE MOULTRIE TO STEADILY INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY.              
SUSTAINED EAST WINDS WILL REACH 20 TO 25 KT FROM LATE MORNING                   
THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS...WITH WAVES ON THE LAKE BUILDING TO 1 TO             
2 FT. WILL MAINTAIN THE CURRENT LAKE WIND ADVISORY FOR LAKE MOULTRIE            
FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING UNTIL 11 PM TONIGHT.                                    
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...                         
TONIGHT AND FRI LOOK LIKE THE PERIODS WHERE OUR FLASH FLOOD WATCH               
MAY BE ALIGNED CORRECTLY WITH RECENT MODEL INDICATIONS/GUIDANCE.                
BANDS OF STRONG CONVERGENCE OFF THE NE AND E SIDE OF THE TROPICAL               
CYCLONE ARE FORECAST TO EDGE OVER COASTAL AREAS WITH TIME AND                   
WITH RICH MOISTURE PROFILES...FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE HIGHLY                     
SUGGESTIVE FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL...ESPECIALLY FROM SAVANNAH                    
SOUTH. DEPENDANT ON HOW THESE BANDS SET UP AND GIVEN TRAINING                   
POTENTIAL...SOME AREAS OUTSIDE THE CURRENT WATCH LIKE THE                       
CHARLESTON TRI-COUNTY REGION MAY ALSO SEE SOME FLOODING POTENTIAL               
THROUGH FRI. THIS IS ESPECIALLY TRUE IF HEAVY RAIN FALLS NEAR                   
TIMES OF HIGH TIDE ANYWHERE ALONG OUR COAST. WITH SUBSTANTIAL CLOUD             
COVER WE LOWERED HIGH TEMPERATURES SEVERAL DEGREES MANY COASTAL                 
AREAS ON FRI AND WE INDICATE CATEGORICAL POPS MOST ZONES S AND SW               
OF BEAUFORT COUNTY.                                                             
ISOLATED TORNADOES MAY BE A RISK TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...ESPECIALLY                
SINCE LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY MAY BE PEAKING WITH THE MOST UNSTABLE               
LOW LEVEL ENVIRONMENT PROGGED COAST AND FAR SE GEORGIA. WIDESPREAD              
SHOWERS WILL BE ON A DECREASING TREND FRI NIGHT AS MORE DIRECT                  
EFFECTS FROM FAY/S CIRCULATION. HIGHEST POPS WILL DURING THE                    
FRI NIGHT PERIOD SHOULD IN SE GEORGIA GIVEN LATEST FORECAST                     
TRACK TIMING AND MODEL OUTPUT.                                                  
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...                                      
FAY WILL LIKELY STILL BE A FLORIDIAN SYSTEM ON SAT...BUT BY THIS                
TIME IT SHOULD BE SOMEWHERE IN THE PANHANDLE OR JUST S OR N IN THE              
NORTHERN GULF OR SOUTHERN ALABAMA. CORE RAINS SHOULD BE SW OF OUR               
AREA THIS WEEKEND WHILE DEEP MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO DECREASE                   
DESPITE A DEEP LAYERED ONSHORE FLOW. MOST OF THE LATEST GLOBAL                  
MODELS INDICATE SOME DECENT DRYING WILL NUDGE INTO OUR FORECAST                 
AREA BY SUNDAY. WE HAVE CONTINUED SIMILAR TRENDS TO PREVIOUS                    
FORECAST PERSISTENCE AND MAINTAINED 20-30 MOSTLY DIURNAL POPS                   
SOUTH CAROLINA ZONES...LOWEST SUNDAY AND CHANCE POPS OVER PARTS                 
OF INLAND SE GEORGIA...HIGHEST SATURDAY. LESS CLOUDS OVERALL                    
SHOULD ALLOW MAX TEMPERATURES TO WARM BACK CLOSE TO 90 WELL                     
INLAND BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON.                                                     
THE REMNANT LOW OF FAY WILL LIKELY LIFT SLOWLY N OR NE TOWARD                   
THE TENNESSEE VALLEY OR MAYBE THE MOUNTAINS INTO MID WEEK. DEEP                 
MOISTURE COULD MAKE ANOTHER PASS AT OUR REGION IN THE MID WEEK                  
TIME FRAME POTENTIALLY INCREASING POPS AND CLOUD COVER ONCE                     
AGAIN. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO LATTER PERIODS THIS MORNING.                   
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION /09Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...                                      
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO DETERIORATE AT BOTH TERMINALS THROUGH               
THE MORNING AND AFTERNOON...AS TROPICAL STORM FAY LINGERS TO THE                
SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. LATEST RADAR TRENDS SHOW INCREASING                 
SHOWER DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA AND                       
SOUTHEAST GEORGIA COASTS THIS HOUR. ALL MODEL GUIDANCE LEANS TOWARD             
PERIODS OF RAIN AND PERSISTENT MVFR CEILINGS THROUGH THE MAJORITY               
OF THE TAF PERIOD. HAVE THUS PRESENTED A MORE PESSIMISTIC SCENARIO              
AT BOTH KCHS AND KSAV TODAY.                                                    
SHOWER ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE AFTER 12Z AT                
BOTH TERMINALS. IFR CIGS AND VSBYS REMAIN POSSIBLE TODAY WITHIN                 
HEAVIER SHOWERS...HOWEVER WILL NOT INCLUDE IN THE 06Z TAF ISSUANCE              
DUE TO LOW CONFIDENCE IN TIMING AND DURATION. BEST CHANCE FOR MORE              
PERSISTENT MVFR CEILINGS AND LONG DURATION SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL                 
BE AT KSAV...WITH RAIN CHANCES HIGHEST DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.              
HAVE INDICATED MVFR CEILINGS FOR THE ENTIRE TAF PERIOD AT                       
KSAV...WHILE MAINTAINING PREVAILING VFR CEILINGS AT KCHS WITH                   
JUST TEMPORARY MVFR CONDITIONS.                                                 
STRONG EAST WINDS WILL BE A MAJOR ISSUE AT BOTH KCHS AND KSAV THROUGHOUT        
THE DAY...DUE TO THE TROPICAL SYSTEM TO THE SOUTH AND A TIGHTENED PRESSURE      
GRADIENT TO THE NORTH. SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE...WIND SPEEDS WILL INCREASE        
AT BOTH TERMINALS...WITH EAST WINDS BETWEEN 15 AND 25 KNOTS AT THE CHS          
TERMINAL AND 20 TO 30 KNOTS AT THE SAV TERMINAL. HAVE NOT IMPROVED              
CONDITIONS BY MUCH AFTER SUNSET...MAINTAINING MVFR CEILINGS AND                 
GUSTY WINDS.                                                                    
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...DEPENDING UPON THE EVOLUTION OF TS                  
FAY...THE TERMINALS COULD EXPERIENCE MORE PROLONGED PERIODS OF MVFR             
TO IFR CONDITIONS THROUGH SATURDAY. CONDITIONS LOOK TO IMPROVE TO               
PREVAILING VFR LEVELS BY SUNDAY.                                                
&&                                                                              
.MARINE...                                                                      
LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS AN INCREASINGLY TIGHT GRADIENT BETWEEN            
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES AND                 
TROPICAL STORM FAY ALONG THE CENTRAL FLORIDA COAST. GRADIENT WINDS              
HAVE SUBSEQUENTLY INTENSIFIED ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS THIS                    
MORNING...WITH BUOY OBSERVATIONS FROM NORTH TO SOUTH INDICATING                 
SOLID 20 TO 25 KT EAST WINDS OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS. FOLLY BEACH               
AND DOWNTOWN CHARLESTON ARE ALSO REPORTING WINDS 15 TO 25 KT THIS               
HOUR.                                                                           
ONGOING WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES AGREE WELL WITH THE LATEST TROPICAL             
STORM FAY TRACK FROM THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER. TROPICAL STORM              
WARNINGS FOR THE SOUTHEAST GEORGIA WATERS WILL ACCOUNT FOR SUSTAINED            
WINDS 25 TO 30 KT WITH FREQUENT GUSTS UP TO 45 KT. FURTHER NORTH IN             
THE SOUTH CAROLINA WATERS...HIGH END SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS            
WILL PERSIST TODAY AND TONIGHT. CANNOT RULE OUT OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO             
35 KT IN THE NORTHERN WATERS...ESPECIALLY WITHIN SQUALLS EMBEDDED IN            
THE OUTER RAIN BANDS. HOWEVER...DO NOT FEEL THAT THE FREQUENCY OF               
THE GUSTS WILL BE SUFFICIENT TO JUSTIFY GALE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.             
AS A RESULT OF PERSISTENTLY STRONG ONSHORE FLOW...SEAS WILL                     
CONTINUE TO BUILD THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. LATEST BUOY                    
REPORTS ARE INDICATING UP TO 10 FT SEAS IN THE OUTER WATERS THIS                
MORNING. HAVE INCREASED SEAS TO 11 TO 13 THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS               
EVENING IN THE OFFSHORE GEORGIA WATERS...WITH 8 TO 10 FT SEAS                   
POSSIBLE IN THE NEARSHORE WATERS.                                               
TROPICAL STORM FAY IS EXPECTED TO PUSH WEST BACK INTO THE FLORIDA               
PENINSULA TODAY. ALTHOUGH THE STORM WILL REMAIN SOUTH AND WEST OF               
THE COASTAL WATERS...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN TIGHT AND                
MAINTAIN ENHANCED ONSHORE FLOW THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY. SEAS WILL               
ALSO BE SLOW TO SUBSIDE INTO THE WEEKEND. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES                
COULD CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY DUE TO SEAS.                                       
IF THE TROPICAL STORM PROGRESSES ALONG THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AS                 
CURRENTLY FORECAST...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE ABLE TO BUILD SOUTHWARD              
INTO THE COASTAL WATERS OVER THE WEEKEND. ONSHORE FLOW WILL THUS                
PERSIST...WITH IMPROVING CONDITIONS THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD.                
&&                                                                              
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...                                                      
STRONG ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE TODAY AS THE PRESSURE             
GRADIENT TIGHTENS BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH AND TROPICAL               
STORM FAY TO THE SOUTH. THIS INTENSIFYING ONSHORE FLOW...COMBINED               
WITH INCREASING RAIN COVERAGE FROM THE OUTER BANDS OF THE TROPICAL              
SYSTEM...WILL BE SUFFICIENT TO PRODUCE SHALLOW COASTAL FLOODING                 
ALONG THE SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA COAST AROUND THE TIME OF HIGH                
TIDE. HIGH TIDE WILL OCCUR BETWEEN 1140 AM AND NOON AT CHARLESTON               
HARBOR AND FORT PULASKI. HAVE ISSUED A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM              
10 AM UNTIL 3 PM ACCORDINGLY.                                                   
&&                                                                              
.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
GA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING FOR GAZ099>101-                   
     114>119-137>141.                                                           
     TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR GAZ116>119-138>141.                             
SC...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING FOR SCZ047>049-051.               
     LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 11 PM EDT THIS               
     EVENING FOR SCZ045.                                                        
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 3 PM EDT                 
     THIS AFTERNOON FOR SCZ048>051.                                             
     HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR SCZ048>051.                   
MARINE...TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR AMZ354-374.                                 
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR AMZ350-352.               
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR AMZ330.                     
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</pre> ga                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN                                              
344 AM CDT THU AUG 21 2008                                                      
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...                                     
SRN PLAINS UPPER LOW HAS OPENED UP AND IS ON THE MOVE THIS                      
MORNING..WITH CIRCULATION CENTER LOCATED NEAR SPRINGFIELD MO AND                
MOVING FAIRLY RAPIDLY NNEWD. MID/UPPER LEVEL DEFORMATION AXIS IS                
CLEARLY VISIBLE IN WV SAT IMAGERY TO THE NE OF THE SYSTEM..WITH                 
BROAD/WEAK ASCENT AND INCREASING DEEP LAYER MOISTURE ACROSS FAR                 
ERN MN AND NW WI EARLY THIS MORNING. RATHER STRONG LLJ ALSO                     
APPEARS TO BE AIDING SHALLOW LOW LEVEL ASCENT..AS BOTH KMPX/KDLH                
RADARS HAVE DETECTED NUMEROUS TRANSIENT SHALLOW CONVECTIVE ECHOES               
ACROSS WRN WI FOR THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. ALTHOUGH MOST WIDESPREAD              
PRECIP WILL LIKELY HOLD OFF UNTIL THE 21-06Z TIME FRAME                         
TONIGHT..WE HAVE STARTED OFF WITH LOW POPS THIS MORNING..AND WE                 
HAVE ALSO DRASTICALLY INCREASED SKY COVER FOR ALL OF TODAY ACROSS               
ROUGHLY THE SE HALF OF OUR FORECAST AREA.                                       
ELSEWHERE..LACK OF CLOUD COVER OUT WEST TODAY SHUD RESULT IN LLJ                
MOMENTUM MIXING OUT..AND WITH ALREADY STRONG SFC PRESSURE                       
GRADIENT..WINDS SHUD BE CRANKING PRETTY GOOD FROM THE SOUTH BY                  
10-11 AM ALONG AND WEST OF THE HIGHWAY 169 CORRIDOR. TEMPS SHUD                 
HAVE LITTLE PROBLEM REACHING THE MID 80S IN MOST LOCALES IN THE                 
WRN CWA TODAY.                                                                  
FORECAST FOR FRIDAY IS RATHER COMPLICATED AND DEPENDENT ON                      
OVERNIGHT CONVECTIVE EVOLUTION..BOTH WITH REMNANTS OF UPPER LOW                 
MOVING ACROSS NW WI/WRN LK SUPERIOR AND WITH POTENTIAL FOR MCS                  
PROPAGATING EWD FROM ND FRIDAY MORNING. GIVEN THE LATEST                        
GUIDANCE..WE EXPECT SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A FEW WEAK TSTORMS                      
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHEARING OUT UPPER LOW TO BE DIMINISHING IN                 
COVERAGE FRIDAY MORNING ACROSS OUR ERN ZONES. THE REMNANTS OF SOME              
TYPE OF MCS MAY MAKE A RUN AT THE NW DLH CWA 12-18Z FRIDAY                      
MORNING..BUT UPDRAFTS ARE EXPECTED TO WEAKEN. NARROW AXIS OF                    
1500-2500 CAPE AIDED BY 66-70 DEWPOINTS IS FORECASTED TO DEVELOP                
AHEAD OF THE FRONT BY MIDDAY FRIDAY..WITH TSTORM DEVELOPMENT                    
ROUGHLY ALONG AN AXIS FROM KINL-KBRD EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON AS CAP              
IS ERODED BY SUSTAINED MESOSCALE LIFT/FGEN WITHIN THE FRONTAL                   
ZONE. THE STRONGEST DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND FLOW ALOFT IS FORECASTED               
TO REMAIN WEST OF THE SFC MASS CONVERGENCE AXIS..BUT LATEST                     
GUIDANCE IS IN LINE WITH PREVIOUS THINKING THAT AT LEAST                        
SUFFICIENT DEEP LAYER SHEAR FROM 30-40 KTS WILL BE SUPERIMPOSED                 
WITH THE INSTABILITY AXIS..AND SUPPORTIVE OF A FEW SVR TSTORMS.                 
GIVEN THE TIME OF YEAR WITH SOMEWHAT WEAK MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES                 
AND HIGH FREEZING LEVELS..PRIMARY SVR THREAT SHUD BE DAMAGING WIND              
WITH MULTICELL/LINE SEGMENT STRUCTURES..AND PERHAPS SOME LOW END                
SVR HAIL. WE HAVE CARRIED THE HIGHEST POPS FRI EVENING AS                       
INCREASING LLJ 00-06Z SHUD RESULT IN GREATEST AREAL COVERAGE.                   
PRECIP CHANCES SHUD END FAIRLY QUICKLY FROM WEST TO EAST OVERNIGHT              
FRIDAY NIGHT AS FRONT RAPIDLY SWEEPS EWD AND COOLER/DRIER AIR                   
FILTERS IN BEHIND THE FRONT COINCIDENT WITH STRONG DEEP LAYER                   
SUBSIDENCE.                                                                     
.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...                                      
QUIET PATTERN ADVERTISED BY MDL CONSENSUS AS BOTH GFS/EC PUSH NRN               
BRANCH MID LVL TROF EAST OF CWA SATURDAY EVENING. DEEP LAYER                    
DRYING SATURDAY ALONG WITH UNIDIRECTIONAL SFC/85H FLOW SHOULD                   
ALLOW FOR BREEZY CONDITIONS.MID LVL RIDGE BUILDS EAST FROM NRN                  
PLAINS SUN/MON WITH PWATS BELOW .75 INCHES. SHOULD SEE ABUNDANT                 
SUNSHINE UNTIL TUESDAY WHEN RETURN FLOW ESTABLISHES AND SOME                    
INCREASE IN DEEP LAYER RH OCCURS.                                               
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...LLWS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY THIS MORNING AS INCREASING         
GEOSTROPHIC FLOW CONTINUES JUST ABOVE DECOUPLED BDRY LAYER. LATEST              
KDLH VWP SHOWS 2KFT FLOW NOT AS STRONG OVER DLH AS RUC FCST.                    
EARLIER TAMDAR SOUNDINGS FROM HIB/TVF/BRD VICINITY SHOWING RUC                  
FCST 925 FCST VALUES CLOSER TO VERIFICATION. WILL EVALUATE ONCE                 
AGAIN FOR NEXT ISSUANCE OF TAFS AROUND 1130Z. OTHERWISE NOCTURNAL               
JET SHOULD RESTRICT WIDESPREAD DEVELOPMENT OF FG THIS MORNING AS                
TURBULENT FLOW WILL FAVOR STRATUS DECK INSTEAD. HAVE OPTED FOR                  
TEMPO VFR CEILING AND/OR MVFR VIS FROM 9Z-13Z AT HIB/DLH. EARLY                 
MORNING CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY DISSIPATE AS BDRY LYR HEATING AND                 
RESULTING MECHANICAL MIXING KEEP VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE CWA                  
DURING THE DAY. LARGE PLUME OF MSTR HEADING INTO NW WISC WILL                   
FAVOR MORE EXTENSIVE CLOUD DECK WITH SCHC TRW BY AFTERNOON NEAR                 
HYR.                                                                            
&&                                                                              
POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                             
DLH  77  65  82  58 /  10  20  40  60                                           
INL  87  66  83  55 /  10  20  40  20                                           
BRD  86  67  86  57 /  10  20  50  40                                           
HYR  82  64  83  63 /  30  40  30  50                                           
ASX  73  64  81  63 /  20  40  30  60                                           
&&                                                                              
.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
MN...NONE.                                                                      
WI...NONE.                                                                      
LS...NONE.                                                                      
$$                                                                              
 MILLER/CANNON                                                                  
</pre> mn                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN                              
316 AM CDT THU AUG 21 2008                                                      
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
THE CHALLENGE WITH THE FORECAST IS THE CHANCES OF PRECIP THROUGH                
TODAY AND FRI...AND ANY STRONG TO SEVERE POTENTIAL OF                           
THUNDERSTORMS ON FRI.                                                           
VERY UNIQUE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...WITH                    
MORNING GOES WV LOOP REVEALING A LONG-LIVED UPPER LEVEL LOW NOW                 
LIFTING NNE FROM THE OZARKS. SATELLITE AND PROFILERS INDICATING                 
STILL A WELL DEFINED MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION WITH THIS AND RUC/NAM                
ANALYSES INDICATES A CONTINUED PV ANOMALY. TRAJECTORY OF THE H7                 
LOW/WAVE WOULD TAKE IT NNE ACROSS CENTRAL FORECAST AREA TODAY INTO              
TONIGHT. HAVE GENERALLY CONFINED POPS FOR TODAY TO THE EAST OF                  
THIS TRACK...WHERE MID-LEVEL DIFLUENCE EXISTS ABOVE SATURATING                  
UPGLIDE. ADIABATIC OMEGA AND QG FORCING ARE BOTH FAIRLY WEAK IN                 
MAGNITUDE IN ERN MN AND WRN WI. CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS ARE ALSO VERY             
WEAK...WITH ONLY MINIMAL UPRIGHT CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL. SO HAVE SCT              
SHWRS AND ISOLD THUNDER IN THE ERN FORECAST AREA...MAINLY DURING                
THE AFTN AND EVE. HAVE SLIGHT CHANCES FOR SHRA/SPRINKLES TO THE                 
WEST OF THIS. WRN MN LOOKS TO REMAIN DRY TODAY AND THIS EVE...WITH              
BREEZY CONDITIONS. NOT TOO FAR FROM WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA IN A                 
FEW PLACES THERE THIS AFTN...GIVEN MSLP GRADIENT AND ISALLOBARIC                
INFLUENCE. MIXING WILL ALSO ALLOW SOME GUSTS TO 35-40 MPH                       
ESPECIALLY IN SOME OF THE HIGHER LOCALES. TEMPS TODAY IN SE MN AND              
WRN WI WILL BE HINDERED GREATLY DUE TO THE CLOUD COVER...WITH                   
POSSIBLY ONLY MID 70S FOR HIGHS IN PLACES. GIVEN SATELLITE TRENDS               
EARLY THIS MORNING AND FORECAST MODEL TIME HEIGHTS...IT APPEARS                 
THAT STRATUS WILL DEVELOP TONIGHT IN ERN MN AND WRN WI IN THE WAKE              
OF SHOWERS. HAVE BUMPED UP CLOUD COVER AND ADJUSTED MIN TEMPS FOR               
THIS.                                                                           
THIS AFOREMENTIONED SYSTEM IS BEING CONSUMED AND FORCED NNE BY A                
LARGER...PROGRESSIVE..AND SIMPLY STRONGER SYSTEM PUSHING QUICKLY                
EAST ACROSS THE NW U.S./BRITISH COLUMBIA BORDER EARLY THIS                      
MORNING. CONVECTION LOOKS TO DEVELOP ASSOCIATED WITH THIS IN ND                 
THIS EVE. PARAMETERS ARE FAVORABLE FOR AN MCS BUT PROPAGATION                   
WOULD TAKE ONE ENE...WELL NORTH OF THE CWA EARLY FRI MORNING. JUST              
A SMALL CHANCE FOR ISOLD ELEVATED CONVECTION ON THE LLJ LATE                    
TONIGHT IN WRN MN.                                                              
AS JET ROUNDS THE BASE OF THIS TROUGH ON FRIDAY...DEEP CYCLOGENSIS              
WILL OCCUR IN SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA FORCING COOL AND DRY AIR                     
ADVECTION EASTWARD FROM THE NRN ROCKIES. THIS COLD FRONT /AND                   
POSSIBLY PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH/ WILL ENTER THE FORECAST AREA FRI                   
AFTN. STRONG CAP FORECAST FOR FRI MORNING AND EARLY AFTN. BUT CAP               
IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN OVER THE POOLED INSTABILITY AXIS ALONG THE                
FRONT. DIAGNOSTIC MODELS FORECAST MUCAPES 1500-2000 J/KG BUT SREF               
INDICATING PROBABILITIES OF SUCH VALUES ONLY AROUND 30 PERCENT.                 
MORNING STRATUS MAY FURTHER INHIBIT FULL HEATING TO THESE VALUES.               
LAPSE RATES ARE ALSO NOT VERY FAVORABLE FOR EXPLOSIVE CONVECTIVE                
POTENTIAL. ON THE SHEAR SIDE OF THINGS...DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS                    
MARGINAL BUT INCREASING ESPECIALLY DURING THE EVE. LOW LEVEL                    
SHEAR IS STRONG...THANKS TO THE PERSISTENT LLJ. A PROBLEM WITH                  
SUSTAINED STRONG CONVECTION IS THAT FRONT IS BEING STRETCHED                    
OUT...WITH LOW SO FAR NORTH AND ANOTHER WAVE FURTHER SOUTHWEST ON               
THE FRONT IN THE CTRL PLAINS. SO CONVERGENCE BECOMES SOMEWHAT                   
MINIMIZED. SOME SCT CONVECTION SEEMS LIKELY BY LATE FRI AFTN AND                
MORE SO DURING THE EVE...BUT WIDESPREAD STRONG CONVECTION AT THIS               
TIME SEEMS UNLIKELY. SOME SEVERE POSSIBLE THOUGH ESPECIALLY IF                  
CONVECTION CAN ORGANIZE. THIS IS BECAUSE LOWER AND MID TROP WIND                
FIELD BEHIND THE FRONT IS STRONG AND UNIDIRECTIONAL FROM THE WNW.               
POSSIBLY A FEW STRONG MULTI-CELLED CLUSTERS.                                    
BEYOND...THE FRONT DOES APPEAR TO WANT TO STALL GIVEN A BACKUP OF               
THINGS IN THE ERN AND SRN PART OF THE COUNTRY...INCLUDING T.S.                  
FAY. BUT ALL GUIDANCE INDICATES THIS WILL OCCUR PAST OUR                        
AREA...MEANING A FAIRLY NICE AND SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN NORMAL                    
WEEKEND. HAVE MADE LITTLE ADJUSTMENTS DURING THAT TIME INTO                     
MONDAY.                                                                         
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION.../06Z TAF ISSUANCE/                                                  
GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS FOR MOST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...EXCEPT               
FOR THE PERIOD AFTER 00Z. SOME PATCHY MVFR VSBYS IN FOG OVER WEST               
CENTRAL WI IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. THROUGH ABOUT                            
15Z...GENERALLY SCT 040-050 SC ALONG WITH INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS                
FROM LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LIFTING NNE FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.                  
PRECIPITABLE WATER WILL BE INCREASING OVER SOUTHEAST MN AND WEST                
CENTRAL BY FRIDAY MORNING ALLOWING FOR BKN CU AROUND 050 OVER                   
EASTERN AREAS IN THE AFTERNOON THROUGH EVENING. INSTABILITY RATHER              
WEAK...BUT MID LEVEL LOW LIFTING TOWARD SOUTH CENTRAL MN WILL AID               
IN SOME SHRA DEVELOPMENT SOUTHEAST MN AND WEST CENTRAL WI AFTER                 
ABOUT 22Z. THUNDER POSSIBLE BUT WILL NOT INCLUDE AT TAF SITES AT                
THIS TIME. DEEPER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BY FRIDAY EVENING MAY CAUSE                
MVFR CIGS OVER PARTS OF THE AREA.                                               
&&                                                                              
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
MN...NONE.                                                                      
WI...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
MTF/JPR                                                                         
</pre> mn                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE                                        
240 AM CDT THU AUG 21 2008                                                      
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
UPR AIR PATTERN CONTINUES TO BE CHARACTERIZED BY A WEAK CLOSED MID              
LVL LOW OVER OKLAHOMA...WITH A BROAD AREA OF ANTICYCLONIC UPR LVL               
FLOW OVER CANADA...AND TROUGHS OVER THE NORTHWEST AND NORTHEASTERN              
COASTS. SEVERAL SMALLER SCALE UPR LVL WAVES ARE ROTATING EAST                   
AWAY FROM THE NORTHWEST TROUGH...ONE OF WHICH WAS CROSSING THE                  
HIGH PLAINS WEDNESDAY EVENING. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FORMED                 
WITH THE APPROACH OF THIS DISTURBANCE...FOCUSED ALONG A WEAK SFC                
TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTH FROM THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS.                           
HOWEVER...LIMITED LOW LVL MOISTURE AND A CAPPING INVERSION HAVE                 
PREVENTED THIS ACTIVITY FROM SPREADING EAST INTO THE CWA. SHORT                 
TERM FCST PROBLEM IS FOG ADVANCING NORTH INTO THE CWA. AT THIS                  
POINT...DO NOT EXPECT FOG TO DEVELOP NORTH OF HIGHWAY 2 AND WEST                
OF HIGHWAY 7/183 DUE TO STRONGER MIXING.                                        
&&                                                                              
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
A SFC LOW IS FCST TO CONSOLIDATE OVER THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS                  
THURSDAY AFTERNOON AHEAD OF A STRONG UPR LVL TROUGH PROGRESSING EAST            
ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. THIS WILL MAINTAIN A STRONG SFC                    
PRESSURE GRADIENT...WHICH WILL FAVOR BREEZY CONDITIONS SIMILAR TO               
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CWA...BOUNDARY                
LAYER MIXING WILL BE STRONGER...WITH WINDS VEERING SLIGHTLY TO THE              
SOUTHWEST. THIS AREA WILL FAVOR DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO               
MID 90S...WITH LOWER 80S FURTHER TO THE EAST. SOME STRATUS ARE                  
POSSIBLE OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA THURSDAY NIGHT...BUT                  
LATEST FCST SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE DEPTH               
WILL BE RATHER SHALLOW...WHICH MAY OFFSET THAT POTENTIAL SOMEWHAT               
DUE TO STRONG MIXING FROM NOCTURNAL LLJ. THE UPPER TROUGH IS                    
EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON FRIDAY...AND                
WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY A SFC FRONTAL PASSAGE OVER NORTH                         
CENTRAL/WESTERN NEBRASKA DURING THE MID DAY HOURS. FAIRLY COOL                  
AIRMASS IS CURRENTLY POSITIONED BENEATH THE UPPER TROUGH OVER                   
SOUTHWEST CANADA...AND LATEST OBJECTIVE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT                  
TEMPERATURES WILL NOT WARM SUBSTANTIALLY AFTER THE FROPA. THEREFORE             
HAVE CUT DAYTIME HIGHS ON FRIDAY BACK A FEW DEGREES. ON THE OTHER               
HAND...POST FRONTAL CLOUDINESS OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA                
WILL LIKELY KEEP OVERNIGHT LOWS A BIT WARMER COMPARED TO NORTH                  
CENTRAL NEBRASKA. AIRMASS BEHIND THE ADVANCING FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS              
FCST TO REMAIN STABLE DURING FRIDAY AFTERNOON...AND THIS CONTINUES              
TO SUGGEST THAT DAYTIME POPS SHOULD REMAIN LOW.                                 
AS THE MAIN UPR DISTURBANCE PASSES WELL TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE                 
REGION...AND ZONAL FLOW DEVELOPS...FRONT WILL LIKELY STALL JUST                 
SOUTH OF THE CWA FRIDAY NIGHT. THE NAM AND GFS CONTINUE TO INDICATE             
LOW LVL WAA AND ISENTROPIC LIFT DEVELOPING NORTH OF THE FRONT DURING            
FRIDAY NIGHT OVER SOUTHWEST NEB. THIS...COMBINED WITH MUCAPE OF                 
1000-1500 J/KG...SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS                
BETWEEN 00-12Z SATURDAY. LOW LVL WAA/ISENTROPIC LIFT CONTINUE ACROSS            
THE EASTERN AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA THROUGH SATURDAY                   
AFTERNOON AND NIGHT...WITH SHOWERS/STORMS REMAINING IN THE FCST. MID            
LVL ANTICYCLONE THEN BECOMES ESTABLISHED OVER THE FOUR CORNERS                  
REGION BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON...PLACING THE CWA WITHIN NORTHWEST FLOW              
ALOFT. FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORMS AT THE SFC APPEARS TO BE LACKING IN              
LATEST MODEL FCSTS DURING THE AFTERNOON...THUS HAVE TRIMMED POPS                
DOWN A BIT...BUT REMAINING FOCUSED OVER SOUTHWEST NEB. LLJ THEN                 
STRENGTHENS DURING THE NIGHT...WHICH MAY FAVOR NOCTURNAL CONVECTION             
OVER WESTERN/SOUTHWEST NEB. LEE TROUGH BECOMES POSITIONED OVER THE              
WESTERN PORTION OF THE CWA ON MONDAY. ATMOSPHERE REMAINS POTENTIALLY            
UNSTABLE WITH LOW 60S DEWPOINTS AND STEEP MID LVL LAPSE RATES IN                
PLACE. HOWEVER...SFC CONVG IS NOT PARTICULARLY STRONG...AND LARGE               
SCALE DESTABILIZATION PROCESSES ARE NOT IN PLACE...WHICH CONTINUES              
TO SUGGEST LEAVING THE FCST DRY FOR NOW.                                        
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
MAIN AVIATION FORECAST FOCUS THE EXTENT OF FOG AND STRATUS THIS                 
MORNING.                                                                        
STRONG SURFACE GRADIENT ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA KEPT SURFACE WINDS              
STRONG AND WELL MIXED THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT.  THIS MIXING HELD FOG              
AND STRATUS AT BAY THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS AND WILL NEED TO             
BE MONITORED.  RUC MODEL CONTINUES TO SHOW STRONG GRADIENT AND                  
SURFACE WINDS HOLDING ACROSS THE WEST THROUGH MORNING.  BASED ON                
THIS REMOVED MENTION OF IFR CIGS AND VSBYS AT KVTN.  CHOOSE TO KEEP             
MENTION OF IFR CONDITIONS IN AT KLBF BUT SHORTENED THE DURATION FOR             
NOW.  IT WILL BE A CLOSE CALL AS BEST GRADIENT IS ACROSS THE                    
NORTHWEST AND AS A RESULT LIGHTER WINDS AT KLXN HAVE ALREADY ALLOWED            
FOR LOWER VSBYS AND APPROACHING STRATUS SEEN ON SATELLITE FOR LAST              
FEW HOURS.  IF IFR CONDITIONS DO NOT REACH KLBF THEY WILL BE NEAR               
AND CERTAINLY ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN NEBRASKA...SEE             
THOSE TAFS AND AREA FORECAST DISCUSSIONS FOR ADDITIONAL                         
INFORMATION.                                                                    
AFTER THIS MORNING/S CLOUDS CLEAR SCT SKIES EXPECTED AFTER 15Z AND              
THE PRIMARY CONCERN BECOMES STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS.                             
&&                                                                              
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                        
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
AVIATION...HIRSCH                                                               
SYNOPSIS/DISCUSSION...GARNER                                                    
</pre> ne                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX                                          
321 AM CDT THU AUG 21 2008                                                      
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT HAS BROUGHT BENEFICIAL BUT FLOODING RAINS              
TO NORTH TEXAS THE PAST FEW DAYS IS NOW SLIDING INTO KANSAS /PER                
RUC ANALYSIS/. THE ASSOCIATED TROUGH EXTENDS SOUTH ACROSS TEXAS                 
WITH THE AXIS CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CWA. SOME WEAK              
SHORTWAVES CONTINUE TO MOVE AROUND THE BASE OF THE TROUGH. ONE                  
SHORTWAVE IS NOW EXITING NORTHEAST TEXAS AND IS AIDING IN SHOWER                
AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IN OUR EXTREME NE CWA. A STRONGER                  
SHORTWAVE IS FORECASTED TO SKIRT THE RED RIVER THIS AFTERNOON. THE              
BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN TODAY WILL BE ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE               
CWA...AHEAD OF THE TROUGH AXIS AND APPROACHING SHORTWAVE...WHERE                
LIFT WILL BE STRONGEST. ANOTHER POTENTIAL PLAYER FOR TODAY COULD                
BE THE LEFT OVER BOUNDARY/SURFACE TROUGH RUNNING NORTHEAST TO                   
SOUTHWEST ACROSS ALMOST THE MIDDLE OF THE CWA. WITH SOME HEATING                
LATER TODAY...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP ALONG THAT                  
BOUNDARY OR ANY OTHER RESIDUAL BOUNDARIES. HOWEVER...WILL HAVE THE              
HIGHEST POPS IN THE EAST. PWATS WILL REMAIN NEAR 2 INCHES IN THE                
EAST SO HEAVY RAINFALL IS STILL A THREAT TODAY IN THAT AREA.                    
THE WEATHER PATTERN OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WILL REMAIN                      
SOMEWHAT UNSETTLED AS THE REMNANTS OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW NEVER                 
REALLY LEAVE THE REGION AND THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TO THE WEST                   
NEVER REALLY BUILDS IN. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ONLY MAKES IT AS FAR              
AS THE TEXAS PANHANDLE BEFORE BEING HALTED. ALL MODELS ARE IN GOOD              
AGREEMENT THAT ENERGY FROM THE TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER NORTHEAST                
TEXAS AND THEN DRIFT BACK OVER NORTH TEXAS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL                
DAYS. THUS WILL KEEP 20-30 POPS IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE                     
WEEKEND WITH BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN AGAIN IN THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST.              
SUNDAY LOOKS TO BE THE NEXT BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN ACROSS ALL OF                  
NORTH TEXAS WITH THE HIGHEST POPS ALONG THE RED RIVER. BY                       
MONDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE GETS NUDGED BACK WEST AS FAY MOVES               
INTO THE CENTRAL GOM COAST AND NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT SETS UP.                    
MODELS SUGGEST THAT SEVERAL WEAK DISTURBANCES WILL RIDE THE                     
NORTHERLY FLOW INTO TEXAS AND WILL CONTINUE 20 POPS FOR THE                     
AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST.                  
HAVE STUCK CLOSE TO GUIDANCE FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE BEGINNING             
OF THE FORECAST AND THEN UNDERCUT GUIDANCE A DEGREE OR TWO FOR THE              
LAST FEW DAYS. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL MOSTLY TOP OUT IN THE                     
90S WITH A FEW SCATTERED UPPER 80S THIS WEEKEND. REASON FOR                     
UNDERCUTTING GUIDANCE ON DAYS 6 AND 7 WAS THOUGHT MOS TEMPS WERE                
TOO HIGH FOR NORTHERLY FLOW. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL CONTINUE TO BE                 
IN THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S.                                                    
82/JLD                                                                          
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  92  74  94  75  92 /  20  10  10  10  30                  
WACO, TX              92  72  93  74  92 /  20  20  20  10  30                  
PARIS, TX             87  70  91  71  90 /  50  20  30  10  30                  
DENTON, TX            91  72  93  72  92 /  20  10  10  10  30                  
MCKINNEY, TX          91  71  91  71  92 /  30  10  10  10  30                  
DALLAS, TX            92  72  92  73  92 /  20  10  10  10  30                  
TERRELL, TX           91  72  94  73  91 /  30  20  20  10  30                  
CORSICANA, TX         91  72  93  73  93 /  30  20  20  10  30                  
TEMPLE, TX            93  71  95  73  91 /  20  20  20  10  30                  
&&                                                                              
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
NONE.                                                                           
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
58/82                                                                           
</pre> tx                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN                                              
1120 AM CDT THU AUG 21 2008                                                     
.UPDATE...                                                                      
ISSUED A SPS FOR WRN HALF OF FA TO ADDRESS THE BREEZY CONDITIONS                
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A 30 KT LLJ AT 925 MB AHEAD OF                      
APPROACHING COLD FRONT ALREADY MIXING TO SFC IN ERN DAKOTAS AND                 
WRN MN. WIDESPREAD AWOS/ASOS REPORTS OF SUSTAINED 20 KTS GUSTING                
AROUND 30 KT IN THIS REGION. DO NOT ANCPD NEEDING A WIND ADVISORY               
FOR ANY OF DLH ZONES DUE TO THE HEAVILY FORESTED AREAS IN NC AND                
NE MINNESOTA. ALTHOUGH...LOCATIONS IN OPEN FIELDS COULD SEE                     
LOCALLY HIGHER WINDS NEAR ADVISORY CRITERIA. THE WINDS WILL                     
SUBSIDE SLIGHTLY OVERNIGHT AS THERMAL GRADIENT WEAKENS.                         
HOWEVER...STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS IN PLACE TO ALLOW FOR                
WINDS TO REMAIN GUSTY. SOUTH WINDS WILL INCREASE RAPIDLY AGAIN ON               
FRIDAY OVER THE FA AS THE COLD FRONT PUSHES EAST THROUGH WRN MN.                
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 344 AM CDT THU AUG 21 2008/                         
SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...                                      
SRN PLAINS UPPER LOW HAS OPENED UP AND IS ON THE MOVE THIS                      
MORNING..WITH CIRCULATION CENTER LOCATED NEAR SPRINGFIELD MO AND                
MOVING FAIRLY RAPIDLY NNEWD. MID/UPPER LEVEL DEFORMATION AXIS IS                
CLEARLY VISIBLE IN WV SAT IMAGERY TO THE NE OF THE SYSTEM..WITH                 
BROAD/WEAK ASCENT AND INCREASING DEEP LAYER MOISTURE ACROSS FAR                 
ERN MN AND NW WI EARLY THIS MORNING. RATHER STRONG LLJ ALSO                     
APPEARS TO BE AIDING SHALLOW LOW LEVEL ASCENT..AS BOTH KMPX/KDLH                
RADARS HAVE DETECTED NUMEROUS TRANSIENT SHALLOW CONVECTIVE ECHOES               
ACROSS WRN WI FOR THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. ALTHOUGH MOST WIDESPREAD              
PRECIP WILL LIKELY HOLD OFF UNTIL THE 21-06Z TIME FRAME                         
TONIGHT..WE HAVE STARTED OFF WITH LOW POPS THIS MORNING..AND WE                 
HAVE ALSO DRASTICALLY INCREASED SKY COVER FOR ALL OF TODAY ACROSS               
ROUGHLY THE SE HALF OF OUR FORECAST AREA.                                       
ELSEWHERE..LACK OF CLOUD COVER OUT WEST TODAY SHUD RESULT IN LLJ                
MOMENTUM MIXING OUT..AND WITH ALREADY STRONG SFC PRESSURE                       
GRADIENT..WINDS SHUD BE CRANKING PRETTY GOOD FROM THE SOUTH BY                  
10-11 AM ALONG AND WEST OF THE HIGHWAY 169 CORRIDOR. TEMPS SHUD                 
HAVE LITTLE PROBLEM REACHING THE MID 80S IN MOST LOCALES IN THE                 
WRN CWA TODAY.                                                                  
FORECAST FOR FRIDAY IS RATHER COMPLICATED AND DEPENDENT ON                      
OVERNIGHT CONVECTIVE EVOLUTION..BOTH WITH REMNANTS OF UPPER LOW                 
MOVING ACROSS NW WI/WRN LK SUPERIOR AND WITH POTENTIAL FOR MCS                  
PROPAGATING EWD FROM ND FRIDAY MORNING. GIVEN THE LATEST                        
GUIDANCE..WE EXPECT SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A FEW WEAK TSTORMS                      
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHEARING OUT UPPER LOW TO BE DIMINISHING IN                 
COVERAGE FRIDAY MORNING ACROSS OUR ERN ZONES. THE REMNANTS OF SOME              
TYPE OF MCS MAY MAKE A RUN AT THE NW DLH CWA 12-18Z FRIDAY                      
MORNING..BUT UPDRAFTS ARE EXPECTED TO WEAKEN. NARROW AXIS OF                    
1500-2500 CAPE AIDED BY 66-70 DEWPOINTS IS FORECASTED TO DEVELOP                
AHEAD OF THE FRONT BY MIDDAY FRIDAY..WITH TSTORM DEVELOPMENT                    
ROUGHLY ALONG AN AXIS FROM KINL-KBRD EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON AS CAP              
IS ERODED BY SUSTAINED MESOSCALE LIFT/FGEN WITHIN THE FRONTAL                   
ZONE. THE STRONGEST DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND FLOW ALOFT IS FORECASTED               
TO REMAIN WEST OF THE SFC MASS CONVERGENCE AXIS..BUT LATEST                     
GUIDANCE IS IN LINE WITH PREVIOUS THINKING THAT AT LEAST                        
SUFFICIENT DEEP LAYER SHEAR FROM 30-40 KTS WILL BE SUPERIMPOSED                 
WITH THE INSTABILITY AXIS..AND SUPPORTIVE OF A FEW SVR TSTORMS.                 
GIVEN THE TIME OF YEAR WITH SOMEWHAT WEAK MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES                 
AND HIGH FREEZING LEVELS..PRIMARY SVR THREAT SHUD BE DAMAGING WIND              
WITH MULTICELL/LINE SEGMENT STRUCTURES..AND PERHAPS SOME LOW END                
SVR HAIL. WE HAVE CARRIED THE HIGHEST POPS FRI EVENING AS                       
INCREASING LLJ 00-06Z SHUD RESULT IN GREATEST AREAL COVERAGE.                   
PRECIP CHANCES SHUD END FAIRLY QUICKLY FROM WEST TO EAST OVERNIGHT              
FRIDAY NIGHT AS FRONT RAPIDLY SWEEPS EWD AND COOLER/DRIER AIR                   
FILTERS IN BEHIND THE FRONT COINCIDENT WITH STRONG DEEP LAYER                   
SUBSIDENCE.                                                                     
LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...                                       
QUIET PATTERN ADVERTISED BY MDL CONSENSUS AS BOTH GFS/EC PUSH NRN               
BRANCH MID LVL TROF EAST OF CWA SATURDAY EVENING. DEEP LAYER                    
DRYING SATURDAY ALONG WITH UNIDIRECTIONAL SFC/85H FLOW SHOULD                   
ALLOW FOR BREEZY CONDITIONS.MID LVL RIDGE BUILDS EAST FROM NRN                  
PLAINS SUN/MON WITH PWATS BELOW .75 INCHES. SHOULD SEE ABUNDANT                 
SUNSHINE UNTIL TUESDAY WHEN RETURN FLOW ESTABLISHES AND SOME                    
INCREASE IN DEEP LAYER RH OCCURS.                                               
AVIATION...LLWS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY THIS MORNING AS INCREASING          
GEOSTROPHIC FLOW CONTINUES JUST ABOVE DECOUPLED BDRY LAYER. LATEST              
KDLH VWP SHOWS 2KFT FLOW NOT AS STRONG OVER DLH AS RUC FCST.                    
EARLIER TAMDAR SOUNDINGS FROM HIB/TVF/BRD VICINITY SHOWING RUC                  
FCST 925 FCST VALUES CLOSER TO VERIFICATION. WILL EVALUATE ONCE                 
AGAIN FOR NEXT ISSUANCE OF TAFS AROUND 1130Z. OTHERWISE NOCTURNAL               
JET SHOULD RESTRICT WIDESPREAD DEVELOPMENT OF FG THIS MORNING AS                
TURBULENT FLOW WILL FAVOR STRATUS DECK INSTEAD. HAVE OPTED FOR                  
TEMPO VFR CEILING AND/OR MVFR VIS FROM 9Z-13Z AT HIB/DLH. EARLY                 
MORNING CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY DISSIPATE AS BDRY LYR HEATING AND                 
RESULTING MECHANICAL MIXING KEEP VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE CWA                  
DURING THE DAY. LARGE PLUME OF MSTR HEADING INTO NW WISC WILL                   
FAVOR MORE EXTENSIVE CLOUD DECK WITH SCHC TRW BY AFTERNOON NEAR                 
HYR.                                                                            
&&                                                                              
POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                             
DLH  80  65  82  58 /  10  20  40  60                                           
INL  87  66  83  55 /  10  20  40  20                                           
BRD  86  67  86  57 /  10  20  50  40                                           
HYR  82  64  83  63 /  30  40  30  50                                           
ASX  82  64  81  63 /  20  40  30  60                                           
&&                                                                              
.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
MN...NONE.                                                                      
WI...NONE.                                                                      
LS...NONE.                                                                      
$$                                                                              
GRANING/04                                                                      
</pre> mn                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN                              
625 AM CDT THU AUG 21 2008                                                      
.AVIATION.../12Z TAF ISSUANCE/                                                  
DETERIORATING CONDITIONS WILL BE THE GENERAL THEME FOR AVIATION                 
CONDITIONS OVER THE UPCOMING 24 HOURS. MID AND HIGH CLOUDS                      
CURRENTLY STREAMING INTO THE SOUTHEAST PORTION OF THE AREA WILL                 
CONTINUE TO THICKEN AS THE MORNING PROGRESSES... WITH PCPN IN THE               
DEFORMATION ZONE OF THE APPROACHING UPPER LOW TRYING TO MOVE                    
NORTHWARD AS WELL. THE AREA OF OBSERVED PCPN MATCHES UP REASONABLY              
WELL WITH THE JUXTAPOSITION OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AND 850-500MB                
Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE SHOWN BY THE NAM AND GFS. THIS WOULD BRING                 
THE BEST CHANCE OF PCPN INTO THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE AREA...                 
MAINLY OVER WEST CENTRAL WISCONSIN... LATER THIS AFTERNOON. IT                  
APPEARS AS THOUGH KMSP WILL BE NEAR THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE PCPN                
SHIELD... AND WITH THE FORCING ACTUALLY ADVERTISED TO WEAKEN A                  
BIT... AM NOT CONVINCED PCPN WILL GET INTO KMSP SO MAINTAINED JUST              
A VCSH FOR THAT AREA. HOWEVER... DID INCLUDE A TEMPO FOR SHRA OVER              
KEAU LATER TODAY SINCE IT LOOKS LIKE A BETTER CHANCE IN THAT AREA.              
CEILINGS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO LOWER TOO DRAMATICALLY WITH THIS                   
ACTIVITY... AND SHOULD REMAIN VFR THROUGH THE DAY ACROSS THE                    
ENTIRE AREA... WITH MINIMAL RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED OVER THE WEST.                
HOWEVER... TONIGHT APPEARS TO BE A DIFFERENT STORY ENTIRELY...                  
WITH BOUNDARY LAYER THROUGH 850MB RH VALUES CLIMBING                            
DRAMATICALLY... PARTICULARLY OVER THE EASTERN TWO THIRDS OF THE                 
AREA. LOWERED CEILINGS ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE NIGHT... WITH                
THE LOWEST CEILINGS OVER THE EAST WHERE FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST              
LOW LOWEST STRATUS WILL BE PRESENT. LOOKING AT UPSTREAM CONDITIONS              
TO OUR SOUTH THIS MORNING... IT CERTAINLY APPEARS AS THOUGH                     
WIDESPREAD IFR AND MVFR CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS MOST OF THE              
AREA... WITH PERHAPS THE FAR WEST ESCAPING THINGS. THE OTHER ISSUE              
OF CONCERN TODAY WILL BE GUSTY WINDS... WITH AN INCREASING                      
PRESSURE GRADIENT THROUGH THE DAY AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE              
HIGH PLAINS MOVES EAST. SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BE STRONGEST OVER THE               
WEST... WHERE SOME GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 35KT LOOK LIKE A GOOD BET...              
BUT GUSTS OVER 25KT LOOK POSSIBLE LATER TODAY AS FAR EAST AS THE                
MN/WI STATE LINE. THINGS SHOULD DECOUPLE SUFFICIENTLY TONIGHT FOR               
THE GUSTINESS TO DIE OFF... ALTHOUGH IT WILL REMAIN SOMEWHAT                    
BREEZY AND A POTENT LOW LEVEL JET CAN BE EXPECTED JUST OFF THE DECK.            
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION...                                                             
/ISSUED 316 AM CDT THU AUG 21 2008/                                             
THE CHALLENGE WITH THE FORECAST IS THE CHANCES OF PRECIP THROUGH                
TODAY AND FRI...AND ANY STRONG TO SEVERE POTENTIAL OF                           
THUNDERSTORMS ON FRI.                                                           
VERY UNIQUE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...WITH                    
MORNING GOES WV LOOP REVEALING A LONG-LIVED UPPER LEVEL LOW NOW                 
LIFTING NNE FROM THE OZARKS. SATELLITE AND PROFILERS INDICATING                 
STILL A WELL DEFINED MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION WITH THIS AND RUC/NAM                
ANALYSES INDICATES A CONTINUED PV ANOMALY. TRAJECTORY OF THE H7                 
LOW/WAVE WOULD TAKE IT NNE ACROSS CENTRAL FORECAST AREA TODAY INTO              
TONIGHT. HAVE GENERALLY CONFINED POPS FOR TODAY TO THE EAST OF                  
THIS TRACK...WHERE MID-LEVEL DIFLUENCE EXISTS ABOVE SATURATING                  
UPGLIDE. ADIABATIC OMEGA AND QG FORCING ARE BOTH FAIRLY WEAK IN                 
MAGNITUDE IN ERN MN AND WRN WI. CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS ARE ALSO VERY             
WEAK...WITH ONLY MINIMAL UPRIGHT CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL. SO HAVE SCT              
SHWRS AND ISOLD THUNDER IN THE ERN FORECAST AREA...MAINLY DURING                
THE AFTN AND EVE. HAVE SLIGHT CHANCES FOR SHRA/SPRINKLES TO THE                 
WEST OF THIS. WRN MN LOOKS TO REMAIN DRY TODAY AND THIS EVE...WITH              
BREEZY CONDITIONS. NOT TOO FAR FROM WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA IN A                 
FEW PLACES THERE THIS AFTN...GIVEN MSLP GRADIENT AND ISALLOBARIC                
INFLUENCE. MIXING WILL ALSO ALLOW SOME GUSTS TO 35-40 MPH                       
ESPECIALLY IN SOME OF THE HIGHER LOCALES. TEMPS TODAY IN SE MN AND              
WRN WI WILL BE HINDERED GREATLY DUE TO THE CLOUD COVER...WITH                   
POSSIBLY ONLY MID 70S FOR HIGHS IN PLACES. GIVEN SATELLITE TRENDS               
EARLY THIS MORNING AND FORECAST MODEL TIME HEIGHTS...IT APPEARS                 
THAT STRATUS WILL DEVELOP TONIGHT IN ERN MN AND WRN WI IN THE WAKE              
OF SHOWERS. HAVE BUMPED UP CLOUD COVER AND ADJUSTED MIN TEMPS FOR               
THIS.                                                                           
THIS AFOREMENTIONED SYSTEM IS BEING CONSUMED AND FORCED NNE BY A                
LARGER...PROGRESSIVE..AND SIMPLY STRONGER SYSTEM PUSHING QUICKLY                
EAST ACROSS THE NW U.S./BRITISH COLUMBIA BORDER EARLY THIS                      
MORNING. CONVECTION LOOKS TO DEVELOP ASSOCIATED WITH THIS IN ND                 
THIS EVE. PARAMETERS ARE FAVORABLE FOR AN MCS BUT PROPAGATION                   
WOULD TAKE ONE ENE...WELL NORTH OF THE CWA EARLY FRI MORNING. JUST              
A SMALL CHANCE FOR ISOLD ELEVATED CONVECTION ON THE LLJ LATE                    
TONIGHT IN WRN MN.                                                              
AS JET ROUNDS THE BASE OF THIS TROUGH ON FRIDAY...DEEP CYCLOGENSIS              
WILL OCCUR IN SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA FORCING COOL AND DRY AIR                     
ADVECTION EASTWARD FROM THE NRN ROCKIES. THIS COLD FRONT /AND                   
POSSIBLY PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH/ WILL ENTER THE FORECAST AREA FRI                   
AFTN. STRONG CAP FORECAST FOR FRI MORNING AND EARLY AFTN. BUT CAP               
IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN OVER THE POOLED INSTABILITY AXIS ALONG THE                
FRONT. DIAGNOSTIC MODELS FORECAST MUCAPES 1500-2000 J/KG BUT SREF               
INDICATING PROBABILITIES OF SUCH VALUES ONLY AROUND 30 PERCENT.                 
MORNING STRATUS MAY FURTHER INHIBIT FULL HEATING TO THESE VALUES.               
LAPSE RATES ARE ALSO NOT VERY FAVORABLE FOR EXPLOSIVE CONVECTIVE                
POTENTIAL. ON THE SHEAR SIDE OF THINGS...DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS                    
MARGINAL BUT INCREASING ESPECIALLY DURING THE EVE. LOW LEVEL                    
SHEAR IS STRONG...THANKS TO THE PERSISTENT LLJ. A PROBLEM WITH                  
SUSTAINED STRONG CONVECTION IS THAT FRONT IS BEING STRETCHED                    
OUT...WITH LOW SO FAR NORTH AND ANOTHER WAVE FURTHER SOUTHWEST ON               
THE FRONT IN THE CTRL PLAINS. SO CONVERGENCE BECOMES SOMEWHAT                   
MINIMIZED. SOME SCT CONVECTION SEEMS LIKELY BY LATE FRI AFTN AND                
MORE SO DURING THE EVE...BUT WIDESPREAD STRONG CONVECTION AT THIS               
TIME SEEMS UNLIKELY. SOME SEVERE POSSIBLE THOUGH ESPECIALLY IF                  
CONVECTION CAN ORGANIZE. THIS IS BECAUSE LOWER AND MID TROP WIND                
FIELD BEHIND THE FRONT IS STRONG AND UNIDIRECTIONAL FROM THE WNW.               
POSSIBLY A FEW STRONG MULTI-CELLED CLUSTERS.                                    
BEYOND...THE FRONT DOES APPEAR TO WANT TO STALL GIVEN A BACKUP OF               
THINGS IN THE ERN AND SRN PART OF THE COUNTRY...INCLUDING T.S.                  
FAY. BUT ALL GUIDANCE INDICATES THIS WILL OCCUR PAST OUR                        
AREA...MEANING A FAIRLY NICE AND SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN NORMAL                    
WEEKEND. HAVE MADE LITTLE ADJUSTMENTS DURING THAT TIME INTO                     
MONDAY.                                                                         
&&                                                                              
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
MN...NONE.                                                                      
WI...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
TRH/MTF                                                                         
</pre> mn                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH                                          
1046 AM EDT THU AUG 21 2008                                                     
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES WILL PUSH                    
SOUTHEAST INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION THROUGH THE END OF THE                   
WEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST ON              
SUNDAY.                                                                         
&&                                                                              
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...                                         
MADE ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE GOING FORECAST WITH MOST OF THE              
REASONING UNCHANGED. MID CLOUDS PROVING A BIT PERSISTENT ACROSS                 
THE WESTERN CWA...WHICH MAY KEEP THE IN/OH BORDER REGION JUST                   
BELOW 90. OTHERWISE LOWER 90S ARE EXPECTED...AGAIN ABOVE GUIDANCE               
BY A COUPLE OF DEGREES. NAM AND RUC STILL SHOWING SOME INSTABILITY              
SHOWERS OVER THE WESTERN CWA LATE THIS AFTERNOON...BUT AS USUAL                 
DEWPOINTS AND INSTABILITY SEEM OVERDONE. IT IS NOT OUT OF THE                   
QUESTION...BUT FOR NOW THE FORECAST WILL REMAIN DRY.                            
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...                               
ABOVE AVG TEMPS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH SATURDAY                
AS THE OHIO VALLEY REMAINS IN SOUTHERLY FLOW AROUND THE BACK SIDE OF            
HIGH PRESSURE TO THE EAST. NEXT FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS STILL PROGGED               
TO COME IN FROM THE NORTHWEST ON SUNDAY. KEPT CHANCE TO SLIGHT                  
CHANCE POPS GOING AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE ON SATURDAY GIVEN THE                   
UNSTABLE AIRMASS WHICH IS FORECAST...BUT SLOWED THEM DOWN SLIGHTLY              
WITH UPPER FORCING STAYING NORTH OF THE REGION. IF SLOWER MODEL                 
TRENDS CONTINUE...POPS MAY NEED TO BE CUT BACK EVEN MORE.                       
INCREASED POPS ON SUNDAY WITH FRONTAL BOUNDARY SLIDING SOUTH TO                 
NEAR THE OHIO RIVER BY SUNDAY NIGHT.                                            
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...                                  
IN THE EARLIER PART OF THIS EXTENDED...THE FORECAST TRENDS TOWARD               
THE 00Z ECMWF WHICH WAS SLOWER WITH THE APPROACH OF THE FRONT OVER              
THE WEEKEND THAN THE 00Z AND 12Z GFS. GFS ENSEMBLES WERE ALSO MORE              
IN AGREEMENT WITH THE 00Z ECMWF. USED A BLEND OF THE GFS ENSEMBLES              
AND 00Z ECMWF TOWARD DAYS 6 AND 7...TUE AND WED. THIS IS SIMILAR TO             
HPC`S SOLUTION.                                                                 
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE FRONT WHICH WILL REMAIN                  
JUST TO THE SOUTH OF OUR FORECAST AREA ON MON. AS A RESULT OF THE               
PROXIMITY OF THE FRONT...KEPT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND                    
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA MON.                    
BY MID WEEK NEXT WEEK...THE OHIO VALLEY REGION MAY BEGIN TO SEE AN              
INCREASE IN MOISTURE AND CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION AS A RESULT OF THE            
REMNANTS OF FAY. THIS WILL DEPEND ON WHERE THE REMNANTS OF FAY TRACK            
AND THE TIMING OF THAT MOVEMENT. HOWEVER...AT THIS TIME THERE IS                
MUCH UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW THE REMNANTS OF FAY WILL EVOLVE AND TRACK            
OVER TIME.                                                                      
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL COOL INTO THE LOWER TO MID 80S BY MID WEEK               
NEXT WEEK. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 60S WITH SOME                 
UPPER 50S IN THE NORTH.                                                         
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION /15Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...                                      
MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL CONTINUE                
TO WORK ITS WAY SLOWLY EAST AND WEAKEN THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.                  
AS IT DOES...HIGH AND THEN MID LEVEL CLOUDS SHOULD SLOWLY                       
OVERSPREAD THE AREA FROM THE WEST TODAY. SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW               
FORECAST TO INCREASE A BIT LATER TONIGHT AND AS IT DOES...LOW LEVELS            
BEGIN TO MOISTEN UP A BIT. THIS COULD LEAD TO SOME LOWER VFR CIGS               
ACROSS THE WEST OVERNIGHT.                                                      
OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ON SUNDAY.                             
&&                                                                              
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
OH...NONE.                                                                      
KY...NONE.                                                                      
IN...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SYNOPSIS...HATZOS                                                               
NEAR TERM...HATZOS                                                              
SHORT TERM...HAWBLITZEL                                                         
LONG TERM...PARKER                                                              
AVIATION...JGL                                                                  
</pre> oh                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX                                          
1104 AM CDT THU AUG 21 2008                                                     
.UPDATE...                                                                      
FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK...JUST MINOR CHANGES TO ACCOUNT FOR LATEST              
TRENDS IN CLOUDS/DEWPOINTS/WINDS. REMOVED POPS WEST OF I-35 AS                  
AREA WILL BE UNDER A REGION OF INCREASING HEIGHTS/SUBSIDENCE                    
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE (THUS INSTABILITY)              
WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE EASTERN CWA...AND COUPLED WITH DRYING ALOFT              
THERE IS A LOW POTENTIAL FOR WET MICROBURSTS THIS AFTERNOON.                    
COVERAGE OF CONVECTION SHOULD REMAIN NEAR OR LESS THAN 30 PERCENT               
GIVEN LACK OF DYNAMIC FORCING THAT HAD BEEN PRESENT THE LAST                    
SEVERAL DAYS. TR.92                                                             
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
PATCHY FOG IS MAKING THIS MORNINGS TAFS DIFFICULT. THE VISIBILITY               
WENT DOWN AS LOW AS 3/4SM WITH A VERTICAL VISIBILITY OF 100                     
FEET AT KAFW. AS OF 1153Z...THEY HAD CLIMBED UP TO 5SM BKN005.                  
HAVE GENERALLY KEPT VSBYS 3-5SM AND SCT-BKN 003-006 THROUGH                     
14Z...WITH AN IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR 14-16Z...AND VFR THEREAFTER,                  
WE SHOULD SEE SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS              
THIS AFTERNOON...BUT AREAL COVERAGE WILL BE LESS THAN WE HAVE                   
SEEN FOR THE LAST DAYS. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS SHOULD BECOME                  
SOUTHERLY 5 TO 8 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON.                                          
58                                                                              
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 321 AM CDT THU AUG 21 2008/                         
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT HAS BROUGHT BENEFICIAL BUT FLOODING RAINS              
TO NORTH TEXAS THE PAST FEW DAYS IS NOW SLIDING INTO KANSAS /PER                
RUC ANALYSIS/. THE ASSOCIATED TROUGH EXTENDS SOUTH ACROSS TEXAS                 
WITH THE AXIS CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CWA. SOME WEAK              
SHORTWAVES CONTINUE TO MOVE AROUND THE BASE OF THE TROUGH. ONE                  
SHORTWAVE IS NOW EXITING NORTHEAST TEXAS AND IS AIDING IN SHOWER                
AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IN OUR EXTREME NE CWA. A STRONGER                  
SHORTWAVE IS FORECASTED TO SKIRT THE RED RIVER THIS AFTERNOON. THE              
BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN TODAY WILL BE ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE               
CWA...AHEAD OF THE TROUGH AXIS AND APPROACHING SHORTWAVE...WHERE                
LIFT WILL BE STRONGEST. ANOTHER POTENTIAL PLAYER FOR TODAY COULD                
BE THE LEFT OVER BOUNDARY/SURFACE TROUGH RUNNING NORTHEAST TO                   
SOUTHWEST ACROSS ALMOST THE MIDDLE OF THE CWA. WITH SOME HEATING                
LATER TODAY...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP ALONG THAT                  
BOUNDARY OR ANY OTHER RESIDUAL BOUNDARIES. HOWEVER...WILL HAVE THE              
HIGHEST POPS IN THE EAST. PWATS WILL REMAIN NEAR 2 INCHES IN THE                
EAST SO HEAVY RAINFALL IS STILL A THREAT TODAY IN THAT AREA.                    
THE WEATHER PATTERN OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WILL REMAIN                      
SOMEWHAT UNSETTLED AS THE REMNANTS OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW NEVER                 
REALLY LEAVE THE REGION AND THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TO THE WEST                   
NEVER REALLY BUILDS IN. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ONLY MAKES IT AS FAR              
AS THE TEXAS PANHANDLE BEFORE BEING HALTED. ALL MODELS ARE IN GOOD              
AGREEMENT THAT ENERGY FROM THE TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER NORTHEAST                
TEXAS AND THEN DRIFT BACK OVER NORTH TEXAS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL                
DAYS. THUS WILL KEEP 20-30 POPS IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE                     
WEEKEND WITH BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN AGAIN IN THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST.              
SUNDAY LOOKS TO BE THE NEXT BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN ACROSS ALL OF                  
NORTH TEXAS WITH THE HIGHEST POPS ALONG THE RED RIVER. BY                       
MONDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE GETS NUDGED BACK WEST AS FAY MOVES               
INTO THE CENTRAL GOM COAST AND NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT SETS UP.                    
MODELS SUGGEST THAT SEVERAL WEAK DISTURBANCES WILL RIDE THE                     
NORTHERLY FLOW INTO TEXAS AND WILL CONTINUE 20 POPS FOR THE                     
AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST.                  
HAVE STUCK CLOSE TO GUIDANCE FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE BEGINNING             
OF THE FORECAST AND THEN UNDERCUT GUIDANCE A DEGREE OR TWO FOR THE              
LAST FEW DAYS. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL MOSTLY TOP OUT IN THE                     
90S WITH A FEW SCATTERED UPPER 80S THIS WEEKEND. REASON FOR                     
UNDERCUTTING GUIDANCE ON DAYS 6 AND 7 WAS THOUGHT MOS TEMPS WERE                
TOO HIGH FOR NORTHERLY FLOW. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL CONTINUE TO BE                 
IN THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S.                                                    
82/JLD                                                                          
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  91  74  94  75  92 /  20  10  10  10  30                  
WACO, TX              92  72  93  74  92 /  10  10  20  10  30                  
PARIS, TX             87  70  91  71  90 /  40  10  30  10  30                  
DENTON, TX            91  72  93  72  92 /  20  10  10  10  30                  
MCKINNEY, TX          91  71  91  71  92 /  20  10  10  10  30                  
DALLAS, TX            91  72  92  73  92 /  20  10  10  10  30                  
TERRELL, TX           91  72  94  73  91 /  20  10  20  10  30                  
CORSICANA, TX         91  72  93  73  93 /  20  10  20  10  30                  
TEMPLE, TX            92  71  95  73  91 /  10  10  20  10  30                  
&&                                                                              
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
NONE.                                                                           
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
25/92                                                                           
</pre> tx                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX                                          
714 AM CDT THU AUG 21 2008                                                      
.AVIATION...                                                                    
PATCHY FOG IS MAKING THIS MORNINGS TAFS DIFFICULT. THE VISIBILITY               
WENT DOWN AS LOW AS 3/4SM WITH A VERTICAL VISIBILITY OF 100                     
FEET AT KAFW. AS OF 1153Z...THEY HAD CLIMBED UP TO 5SM BKN005.                  
HAVE GENERALLY KEPT VSBYS 3-5SM AND SCT-BKN 003-006 THROUGH                     
14Z...WITH AN IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR 14-16Z...AND VFR THEREAFTER,                  
WE SHOULD SEE SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS              
THIS AFTERNOON...BUT AREAL COVERAGE WILL BE LESS THAN WE HAVE                   
SEEN FOR THE LAST DAYS. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS SHOULD BECOME                  
SOUTHERLY 5 TO 8 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON.                                          
58                                                                              
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 321 AM CDT THU AUG 21 2008/                         
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT HAS BROUGHT BENEFICIAL BUT FLOODING RAINS              
TO NORTH TEXAS THE PAST FEW DAYS IS NOW SLIDING INTO KANSAS /PER                
RUC ANALYSIS/. THE ASSOCIATED TROUGH EXTENDS SOUTH ACROSS TEXAS                 
WITH THE AXIS CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CWA. SOME WEAK              
SHORTWAVES CONTINUE TO MOVE AROUND THE BASE OF THE TROUGH. ONE                  
SHORTWAVE IS NOW EXITING NORTHEAST TEXAS AND IS AIDING IN SHOWER                
AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IN OUR EXTREME NE CWA. A STRONGER                  
SHORTWAVE IS FORECASTED TO SKIRT THE RED RIVER THIS AFTERNOON. THE              
BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN TODAY WILL BE ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE               
CWA...AHEAD OF THE TROUGH AXIS AND APPROACHING SHORTWAVE...WHERE                
LIFT WILL BE STRONGEST. ANOTHER POTENTIAL PLAYER FOR TODAY COULD                
BE THE LEFT OVER BOUNDARY/SURFACE TROUGH RUNNING NORTHEAST TO                   
SOUTHWEST ACROSS ALMOST THE MIDDLE OF THE CWA. WITH SOME HEATING                
LATER TODAY...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP ALONG THAT                  
BOUNDARY OR ANY OTHER RESIDUAL BOUNDARIES. HOWEVER...WILL HAVE THE              
HIGHEST POPS IN THE EAST. PWATS WILL REMAIN NEAR 2 INCHES IN THE                
EAST SO HEAVY RAINFALL IS STILL A THREAT TODAY IN THAT AREA.                    
THE WEATHER PATTERN OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WILL REMAIN                      
SOMEWHAT UNSETTLED AS THE REMNANTS OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW NEVER                 
REALLY LEAVE THE REGION AND THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TO THE WEST                   
NEVER REALLY BUILDS IN. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ONLY MAKES IT AS FAR              
AS THE TEXAS PANHANDLE BEFORE BEING HALTED. ALL MODELS ARE IN GOOD              
AGREEMENT THAT ENERGY FROM THE TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER NORTHEAST                
TEXAS AND THEN DRIFT BACK OVER NORTH TEXAS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL                
DAYS. THUS WILL KEEP 20-30 POPS IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE                     
WEEKEND WITH BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN AGAIN IN THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST.              
SUNDAY LOOKS TO BE THE NEXT BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN ACROSS ALL OF                  
NORTH TEXAS WITH THE HIGHEST POPS ALONG THE RED RIVER. BY                       
MONDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE GETS NUDGED BACK WEST AS FAY MOVES               
INTO THE CENTRAL GOM COAST AND NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT SETS UP.                    
MODELS SUGGEST THAT SEVERAL WEAK DISTURBANCES WILL RIDE THE                     
NORTHERLY FLOW INTO TEXAS AND WILL CONTINUE 20 POPS FOR THE                     
AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST.                  
HAVE STUCK CLOSE TO GUIDANCE FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE BEGINNING             
OF THE FORECAST AND THEN UNDERCUT GUIDANCE A DEGREE OR TWO FOR THE              
LAST FEW DAYS. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL MOSTLY TOP OUT IN THE                     
90S WITH A FEW SCATTERED UPPER 80S THIS WEEKEND. REASON FOR                     
UNDERCUTTING GUIDANCE ON DAYS 6 AND 7 WAS THOUGHT MOS TEMPS WERE                
TOO HIGH FOR NORTHERLY FLOW. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL CONTINUE TO BE                 
IN THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S.                                                    
82/JLD                                                                          
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  92  74  94  75  92 /  20  10  10  10  30                  
WACO, TX              92  72  93  74  92 /  20  20  20  10  30                  
PARIS, TX             87  70  91  71  90 /  50  20  30  10  30                  
DENTON, TX            91  72  93  72  92 /  20  10  10  10  30                  
MCKINNEY, TX          91  71  91  71  92 /  30  10  10  10  30                  
DALLAS, TX            92  72  92  73  92 /  20  10  10  10  30                  
TERRELL, TX           91  72  94  73  91 /  30  20  20  10  30                  
CORSICANA, TX         91  72  93  73  93 /  30  20  20  10  30                  
TEMPLE, TX            93  71  95  73  91 /  20  20  20  10  30                  
&&                                                                              
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
NONE.                                                                           
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
58/84                                                                           
</pre> tx                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI                                           
1113 AM CDT THU AUG 21 2008                                                     
.UPDATE...TODAY                                                                 
LATEST WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATING UPPER LEVEL LOW                 
LIFTING NORTH INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION THIS MORNING. LATEST            
MOSAIC RADAR INDICATING SHIELD OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION EXTENDING FROM            
SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN INTO CENTRAL ILLINOIS. THIS IS IN RESPONSE TO               
WEAK MOISTURE/THETA E CONVERGENCE AT 850MB PER LATEST RUC. LATEST               
15Z RUC INDICATE THIS FORCING TO CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTH ACROSS                  
FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON. LATEST LOCAL RUN RUCWRF MODEL DOING               
REAL WELL WITH CURRENT PRECIPITATION AND SHIFTS PRECIPITATION NORTH             
ACROSS FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON. HAVE UPDATED FORECAST TO ADJUST            
PRECIPITATION TRENDS LATE THIS MORNING. HAVE ALSO ADJUSTED                      
TEMPERATURES A COUPLE OF DEGREES DOWNWARD...BASED ON CLOUDS WILL                
HOLD DOWN TEMPERATURES DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS ACROSS FORECAST               
AREA.                                                                           
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 341 AM CDT THU AUG 21 2008/                         
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT                                      
MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS THIS PACKAGE...RAIN CHANCES TODAY INTO SAT...            
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD.                                                
06Z DATA ANALYSIS HAD BROAD HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER NY/PA WITH              
RIDGING WEST INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST. LOW PRESSURE WAS LOCATED OVER              
CENTRAL MAN WITH TROUGHING INTO EASTERN WY. ANOTHER WEAK WAVE OF LOW            
PRESSURE/TROUGH WAS LOCATED OVER EAST TX TO SOUTHWEST MO. SFC OBS/              
FOG-PRODUCT IMAGERY DEPICTED THE BKN/OVC MID CLOUD DECK MOVING NORTH            
ACROSS IA/IL/SOUTHERN IL...AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE ENERGY/UPPER LOW              
LIFTING OUT OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. REGIONAL RADARS SHOWED RATHER               
WIDESPREAD -RA LIFTING NORTH THRU MO...BUT BATTLING SOME DRIER LOW              
LEVEL AIR AS IT MOVED INTO SOUTHERN IA.                                         
NO MAJOR ERRORS NOTED WITH 21.00Z NAM/GFS INITIALIZATIONS WITH                  
SOLUTIONS QUITE SIMILAR FOR TODAY THRU SAT NIGHT. HOWEVER...PER                 
WV IMAGERY BOTH LOOKED WEAK WITH THE SHORTWAVE LIFTING ACROSS AR.               
DPROG/DT OF 500MB HGTS AT 21.00Z SHOWED NAM/GFS RUNS OF 19.00Z AND              
20.00Z VERIFIED WELL ACROSS NOAM/EASTERN PAC WITH THE BETTER RUN-TO-            
RUN CONSISTENCY AGAIN TO GFS. THRU 36HRS TREND IS TOWARD THE FASTER             
PREVIOUS GFS RUNS AS THE TROUGH MOVES INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS...               
SUPPORTED BY ECMWF/UKMET. FAY REMAINS PROBLEMATIC...STUCK IN WEAK               
STEERING FLOW. MODEL CONSISTENCY REMAINS QUITE GOOD IN THE 36-84HR              
TIME-FRAME AS THE TROUGH/UPPER LOW LIFTS TO SOUTHERN HUDSONS BAY AND            
RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES/PLAINS AND CANADIAN                    
PRAIRIES. CHECK OF OBS VS. MODEL DATA AT 06Z SHOWED NAM/GFS                     
REASONABLE WITH THE SFC MASS FIELDS ACROSS CENTRAL NOAM. PER WV                 
IMAGERY BOTH NAM/GFS CONTINUED TO APPEAR TOO WEAK WITH THE SHORTWAVE            
LIFTING NORTH ACROSS AR...WITH NAM BETTER THAN GFS AND ECMWF BETTER             
THAN NAM. A BLEND OF NAM/GFS LOOKED BEST WITH THE 00Z-06Z PRECIP                
ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS...WHILE GFS BETTER BUT STILL TOO LIGHT WITH            
FAY QPF ACROSS FL. DIFFICULT TO FAVOR EITHER MODEL THIS CYCLE WITH              
THE POOR DEPICTION OF THE AR SHORTWAVE ROTATING NORTH TOWARD THE                
AREA TODAY. THIS ISSUE LEADS TO CONFIDENCE IN THE AVERAGE RANGE THIS            
CYCLE. WITH NAM/ECMWF...BETTER WITH THE AR SHORTWAVE EARLY THIS                 
MORNING...LEANED TOWARD THEIR SOLUTIONS TODAY/TONIGHT. THEN FAVORED             
MODEL BLEND/COMPROMISE FOR FRI THRU SAT NIGHT.                                  
IN THE SHORT TERM...DEEPER MOISTURE AND SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL                   
CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTH INTO/ACROSS THE AREA TODAY INTO THIS EVENING.            
SOME ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE IN THE 300-310K LAYER ALONG WITH THETA-E                
CONVERGENCE...BUT BULK OF LIFT LOOKS TO COME FROM PV ADVECTION                  
AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE AND AGEOSTROPHIC FLOW/DIVERGENCE IN RIGHT                
ENTRANCE REGION OF A 40KT 300MB JET MAX. WITH SHORTWAVE OF INTEREST             
LOOKING STRONGER THAN DEPICTED IN ANY MODEL...PV ADVECTION/LIFT                 
ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON EVENING SHOULD BE STRONGER THAN                  
PROGGED. RAISED RAIN CHANCE TO LIKELY FOR MUCH OF THE AREA THIS                 
AFTERNOON AND TO HIGH-END CHANCE FOR THIS EVENING. BULK OF PRECIP TO            
BE -RA OR -SHRA AS LITTLE IN THE WAY OF CAPE EXPECTED ACROSS THE                
AREA THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. NAM THE MOST ROBUST...INDICATING UP TO             
500 J/KG OF MOST-UNSTABLE CAPE. GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE SHORTWAVE             
AND POTENTIAL FOR SOME WEAK CAPE...DID LEAVE ISOLD TSRA IN GRIDS FOR            
THE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS. MAIN WAVE/TROUGH LIFTS NORTH OF THE                
AREA FOR LATER TONIGHT AND TRENDED -RA/-SHRA CHANCES DOWN A BIT.                
LIMITED FORCING/LIFT ACROSS THE AREA FRI WITH NORTHERN STREAM                   
TROUGH AND COLD FRONT WEST OF THE AREA. INSTABILITY INCREASES ACROSS            
THE AREA FOR THE AFTERNOON...MOST UNSTABLE CAPES OF 1K TO 1.5K                  
J/KG...WITH SOME WEAK SFC-700MB WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE FRONT.              
CONTINUED A SMALL -SHRA/TSRA CHANCE FRI...MAINLY DURING THE                     
AFTERNOON. COLD FRONT STILL ON TRACK TO PUSH ACROSS THE AREA FRI                
NIGHT...INTO THE MOIST/UNSTABLE AIRMASS. CONVERGENCE/LIFT WITH THE              
FRONT TRENDING WEAKER WITH A MORE SHEARED LOOK/POSITIVE TILT TO THE             
850-500MB TROUGH WITH THE FRONT. MAIN SHORTWAVE ENERGY AND TROUGH               
SHEARS/LIFTS NORTH OF THE AREA AS WELL. FRONT DOES GENERATE WEAK-               
MDT 850-700MB FN AND QG CONVERGENCE AS IT PUSHES ACROSS TONIGHT.                
PREVIOUS GRID SETS CARRIED HIGH-END CHANCE/LOW-END LIKELY -SHRA/TSRA            
CHANCES FOR LATER FRI NIGHT...WHICH LOOKS WELL TRENDED FOR NOW. LOW             
LEVEL COLD ADVECTION/SUBSIDENCE/DRYING SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA BEHIND            
THE FRONT ON SAT. WITH FRONT STILL IN/NEAR THE AREA EARLY SAT                   
MORNING...LINGERING -SHRA/ISOLD TSRA CHANCE REASONABLE. SOME 850-               
700MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND WEAK 700MB WARM ADVECTION ABOVE THE                
ADVANCING HIGH/COOL DOME MAY BE ENOUGH FOR A SMALL -SHRA/TSRA                   
CHANCE ACROSS THE SOUTH END OF THE FORECAST AREA SAT AFTERNOON AND              
LEFT THE SMALL -SHRA/TSRA CHANCE THERE.                                         
HIGH TEMPS TRICKY TODAY AND DEPEND ON HOW QUICKLY THICKER CLOUDS/               
ANY -RA MOVES IN. TRENDED HIGHS DOWN TOWARD A BLEND OF GUIDANCE                 
VALUES. FAVORED A BLEND OF GUIDANCE LOWS/HIGHS FOR TONIGHT THRU FRI             
NIGHT. GUIDANCE HIGHS FOR SAT SIMILAR AND APPEAR REASONABLE. WITH               
THE COOLER...DRIER HIGH BUILDING IN AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES...TRENDED            
SAT NIGHT LOWS DOWN ABOUT A CATEGORY TOWARD 21.00Z GFS MEX-MOS                  
VALUES.                                                                         
.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY                                           
MEDIUM RANGE MODEL RUNS OF 21.00Z IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH EACH OTHER             
AND THEIR PREVIOUS RUNS FOR SUN/MON. THUS GOOD CONSENSUS/FORECAST               
CONFIDENCE FOR A DRY/QUIET PERIOD OF WEATHER FOR SUN/MON AS DRIER               
HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES INTO THE REGION AND RIDGING ALOFT BUILDS EAST             
INTO CENTRAL NOAM. DID LOWER LOWS SUN NIGHT TO REFLECT THE COOLER...            
DRIER HIGH TO BE CENTERED NEAR/OVER THE AREA. BY TUE...ECMWF/GFS                
HAVE TRENDED TOWARD A WEAK UPPER TROUGH DEVELOPING OVER THE NORTHERN            
PLAINS...THEN MOVE THIS TROUGH ACROSS THE AREA WED. GFS STRONGER                
WITH MORE OF A LOW/MID LEVEL REFLECTION OF IT. MAY YET NEED A SMALL             
RAIN CHANCE WED IF THIS TREND CONTINUES. HOWEVER GFS ENSEMBLES AND              
MODEL CONSENSUS SUPPORTS THE GOING DRY FORECAST FOR TUE/WED AND DID             
NOT MAKE ANY CHANGES BEYOND SUN NIGHT FOR NOW.                                  
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...TODAY AND TONIGHT                                                   
REMAINS OF THE SOUTHWEST U.S. CUT OFF LOW WILL LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS            
THE AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT. DEEP GULF OF MEXICO MOISTURE WILL                   
GRADUALLY WORK NORTH INTO THE AREA CAUSING CEILINGS TO LOWER THROUGH            
THE DAY BUT SHOULD REMAIN IN VFR HEIGHTS THROUGH 22.00Z. AFTER                  
THAT...THE RICH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO ALLOW MVFR                    
CEILINGS TO DEVELOP DURING THE EVENING WITH IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE             
STARTING AROUND 22.06Z. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP               
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE INTO THE EARLY EVENING BEFORE                 
BECOMING MORE ISOLATED IN COVERAGE. COULD BE SOME PERIODS OF MVFR               
VISIBILITY IN THESE SHOWERS. VERY LITTLE CAPE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP               
THIS AFTERNOON SO ANY THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE ISOLATED AND NO PLANS             
TO EVEN CARRY A CB QUALIFIER AT EITHER TAF SITE.                                
&&                                                                              
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
WI...NONE.                                                                      
MN...NONE.                                                                      
IA...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHORT/LONG TERM...RRS                                                           
AVIATION..........04                                                            
</pre> wi                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN                              
1219 PM CDT THU AUG 21 2008                                                     
.UPDATE...                                                                      
UPDATED FOR 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.                                      
&&                                                                              
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
/ISSUED 316 AM CDT THU AUG 21 2008/                                             
THE CHALLENGE WITH THE FORECAST IS THE CHANCES OF PRECIP THROUGH                
TODAY AND FRI...AND ANY STRONG TO SEVERE POTENTIAL OF                           
THUNDERSTORMS ON FRI.                                                           
VERY UNIQUE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...WITH                    
MORNING GOES WV LOOP REVEALING A LONG-LIVED UPPER LEVEL LOW NOW                 
LIFTING NNE FROM THE OZARKS. SATELLITE AND PROFILERS INDICATING                 
STILL A WELL DEFINED MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION WITH THIS AND RUC/NAM                
ANALYSES INDICATES A CONTINUED PV ANOMALY. TRAJECTORY OF THE H7                 
LOW/WAVE WOULD TAKE IT NNE ACROSS CENTRAL FORECAST AREA TODAY INTO              
TONIGHT. HAVE GENERALLY CONFINED POPS FOR TODAY TO THE EAST OF                  
THIS TRACK...WHERE MID-LEVEL DIFLUENCE EXISTS ABOVE SATURATING                  
UPGLIDE. ADIABATIC OMEGA AND QG FORCING ARE BOTH FAIRLY WEAK IN                 
MAGNITUDE IN ERN MN AND WRN WI. CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS ARE ALSO VERY             
WEAK...WITH ONLY MINIMAL UPRIGHT CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL. SO HAVE SCT              
SHWRS AND ISOLD THUNDER IN THE ERN FORECAST AREA...MAINLY DURING                
THE AFTN AND EVE. HAVE SLIGHT CHANCES FOR SHRA/SPRINKLES TO THE                 
WEST OF THIS. WRN MN LOOKS TO REMAIN DRY TODAY AND THIS EVE...WITH              
BREEZY CONDITIONS. NOT TOO FAR FROM WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA IN A                 
FEW PLACES THERE THIS AFTN...GIVEN MSLP GRADIENT AND ISALLOBARIC                
INFLUENCE. MIXING WILL ALSO ALLOW SOME GUSTS TO 35-40 MPH                       
ESPECIALLY IN SOME OF THE HIGHER LOCALES. TEMPS TODAY IN SE MN AND              
WRN WI WILL BE HINDERED GREATLY DUE TO THE CLOUD COVER...WITH                   
POSSIBLY ONLY MID 70S FOR HIGHS IN PLACES. GIVEN SATELLITE TRENDS               
EARLY THIS MORNING AND FORECAST MODEL TIME HEIGHTS...IT APPEARS                 
THAT STRATUS WILL DEVELOP TONIGHT IN ERN MN AND WRN WI IN THE WAKE              
OF SHOWERS. HAVE BUMPED UP CLOUD COVER AND ADJUSTED MIN TEMPS FOR               
THIS.                                                                           
THIS AFOREMENTIONED SYSTEM IS BEING CONSUMED AND FORCED NNE BY A                
LARGER...PROGRESSIVE..AND SIMPLY STRONGER SYSTEM PUSHING QUICKLY                
EAST ACROSS THE NW U.S./BRITISH COLUMBIA BORDER EARLY THIS                      
MORNING. CONVECTION LOOKS TO DEVELOP ASSOCIATED WITH THIS IN ND                 
THIS EVE. PARAMETERS ARE FAVORABLE FOR AN MCS BUT PROPAGATION                   
WOULD TAKE ONE ENE...WELL NORTH OF THE CWA EARLY FRI MORNING. JUST              
A SMALL CHANCE FOR ISOLD ELEVATED CONVECTION ON THE LLJ LATE                    
TONIGHT IN WRN MN.                                                              
AS JET ROUNDS THE BASE OF THIS TROUGH ON FRIDAY...DEEP CYCLOGENSIS              
WILL OCCUR IN SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA FORCING COOL AND DRY AIR                     
ADVECTION EASTWARD FROM THE NRN ROCKIES. THIS COLD FRONT /AND                   
POSSIBLY PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH/ WILL ENTER THE FORECAST AREA FRI                   
AFTN. STRONG CAP FORECAST FOR FRI MORNING AND EARLY AFTN. BUT CAP               
IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN OVER THE POOLED INSTABILITY AXIS ALONG THE                
FRONT. DIAGNOSTIC MODELS FORECAST MUCAPES 1500-2000 J/KG BUT SREF               
INDICATING PROBABILITIES OF SUCH VALUES ONLY AROUND 30 PERCENT.                 
MORNING STRATUS MAY FURTHER INHIBIT FULL HEATING TO THESE VALUES.               
LAPSE RATES ARE ALSO NOT VERY FAVORABLE FOR EXPLOSIVE CONVECTIVE                
POTENTIAL. ON THE SHEAR SIDE OF THINGS...DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS                    
MARGINAL BUT INCREASING ESPECIALLY DURING THE EVE. LOW LEVEL                    
SHEAR IS STRONG...THANKS TO THE PERSISTENT LLJ. A PROBLEM WITH                  
SUSTAINED STRONG CONVECTION IS THAT FRONT IS BEING STRETCHED                    
OUT...WITH LOW SO FAR NORTH AND ANOTHER WAVE FURTHER SOUTHWEST ON               
THE FRONT IN THE CTRL PLAINS. SO CONVERGENCE BECOMES SOMEWHAT                   
MINIMIZED. SOME SCT CONVECTION SEEMS LIKELY BY LATE FRI AFTN AND                
MORE SO DURING THE EVE...BUT WIDESPREAD STRONG CONVECTION AT THIS               
TIME SEEMS UNLIKELY. SOME SEVERE POSSIBLE THOUGH ESPECIALLY IF                  
CONVECTION CAN ORGANIZE. THIS IS BECAUSE LOWER AND MID TROP WIND                
FIELD BEHIND THE FRONT IS STRONG AND UNIDIRECTIONAL FROM THE WNW.               
POSSIBLY A FEW STRONG MULTI-CELLED CLUSTERS.                                    
BEYOND...THE FRONT DOES APPEAR TO WANT TO STALL GIVEN A BACKUP OF               
THINGS IN THE ERN AND SRN PART OF THE COUNTRY...INCLUDING T.S.                  
FAY. BUT ALL GUIDANCE INDICATES THIS WILL OCCUR PAST OUR                        
AREA...MEANING A FAIRLY NICE AND SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN NORMAL                    
WEEKEND. HAVE MADE LITTLE ADJUSTMENTS DURING THAT TIME INTO                     
MONDAY.                                                                         
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION.../18Z TAF ISSUANCE/                                                  
TOUGH SET OF TAFS...WITH STRONG WINDS...PRECIP CHANCES...AND                    
FOG/STRATUS LIKELY. PLUME OF MOISTURE FROM THE GULF POURING INTO                
THE AREA...AS AN UPR LOW MOVES NEWRD ACRS THE AREA. 88D MOSAIC                  
SHOWS BULK OF SHRA IN SE MN AND INTO ERN IA/SWRN WI ATTM...AND                  
305K ISEN ANALYSES PROJECT THIS TO REALLY ONLY AFFECT EAU                       
SUBSTANTIALLY THIS AFTN/EVE. UPSTREAM CONDS BROUGHT ON BY UPR LOW               
SHOWED WIDESPREAD IFR CIGS...WITH LARGELY MVFR/OCCASIONAL IFR                   
VSBYS. THIS AIRMASS SHUD SPREAD ACRS THE REST OF THE AREA                       
OVRNGT...LEADING TO WIDESPREAD IFR CIGS FROM LATE EVE THRU EARLY                
TO MID MRNG TMRW. INCR PRES GRAD WILL LEAD TO HIGHER WINDS                      
TMRW...AS COLD FRONT APPROACHES. AFT 18Z TMRW...ATTENTION TURNS TO              
CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL AS FRONT PUSHES EWRD. LIKELIHOOD OF TSRA BEST              
FROM STC EWRD DURG THE MID/LATE AFTN AND INTO THE EVE.                          
&&                                                                              
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
MN...NONE.                                                                      
WI...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
MTF/KAT                                                                         
</pre> mn                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX                                          
131 PM CDT THU AUG 21 2008                                                      
.UPDATE...                                                                      
WILL ISSUE A QUICK UPDATE TO INCREASE POPS IN THE SOUTHWEST BASED ON            
CURRENT RADAR TRENDS.  INSTABILITY SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO SUSTAIN              
SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS THROUGH SUNSET.                                        
NO OTHER MAJOR CHANGES AT THIS TIME.                                            
.79...                                                                          
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
1233 PM                                                                         
DRY AIR CONTINUES TO WORK INTO THE MID-LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE AS              
SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES IN. THE PRIMARY AREAS FOR              
PRECIP WILL BE EAST AND SOUTH OF THE METROPLEX WHERE THE BEST                   
MOISTURE REMAINS. COVERAGE IS TOO LOW TO MENTION ANY PRECIP FOR THE             
METROPLEX TAFS BUT WILL MONITOR THE SITUATION THROUGHOUT THE                    
AFTERNOON AND AMEND TAFS IF NECESSARY.                                          
DONT THINK WE WILL SEE A COMPLETE REPEAT OF THIS MORNINGS IFR CIGS              
AND MVFR VISIBILITIES. MOISTURE LAYER JUST OFF THE SURFACE WILL                 
NOT BE AS DEEP AND SURFACE WIND SPEEDS WILL ALSO BE AROUND 8                    
KNOTS KEEPING THE AIR RELATIVELY MIXED. BUT WITH SATURATED                      
SOILS...CANT RULE OUT SCT LOW CLOUDS AND SLIGHT RESTRICTIONS IN                 
VISIBILITY.                                                                     
85/NH                                                                           
&&                                                                              
.UPDATE...                                                                      
FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK...JUST MINOR CHANGES TO ACCOUNT FOR LATEST              
TRENDS IN CLOUDS/DEWPOINTS/WINDS. REMOVED POPS WEST OF I-35 AS                  
AREA WILL BE UNDER A REGION OF INCREASING HEIGHTS/SUBSIDENCE                    
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE (THUS INSTABILITY)              
WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE EASTERN CWA...AND COUPLED WITH DRYING ALOFT              
THERE IS A LOW POTENTIAL FOR WET MICROBURSTS THIS AFTERNOON.                    
COVERAGE OF CONVECTION SHOULD REMAIN NEAR OR LESS THAN 30 PERCENT               
GIVEN LACK OF DYNAMIC FORCING THAT HAD BEEN PRESENT THE LAST                    
SEVERAL DAYS. TR.92                                                             
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 321 AM CDT THU AUG 21 2008/                         
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT HAS BROUGHT BENEFICIAL BUT FLOODING RAINS              
TO NORTH TEXAS THE PAST FEW DAYS IS NOW SLIDING INTO KANSAS /PER                
RUC ANALYSIS/. THE ASSOCIATED TROUGH EXTENDS SOUTH ACROSS TEXAS                 
WITH THE AXIS CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CWA. SOME WEAK              
SHORTWAVES CONTINUE TO MOVE AROUND THE BASE OF THE TROUGH. ONE                  
SHORTWAVE IS NOW EXITING NORTHEAST TEXAS AND IS AIDING IN SHOWER                
AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IN OUR EXTREME NE CWA. A STRONGER                  
SHORTWAVE IS FORECASTED TO SKIRT THE RED RIVER THIS AFTERNOON. THE              
BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN TODAY WILL BE ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE               
CWA...AHEAD OF THE TROUGH AXIS AND APPROACHING SHORTWAVE...WHERE                
LIFT WILL BE STRONGEST. ANOTHER POTENTIAL PLAYER FOR TODAY COULD                
BE THE LEFT OVER BOUNDARY/SURFACE TROUGH RUNNING NORTHEAST TO                   
SOUTHWEST ACROSS ALMOST THE MIDDLE OF THE CWA. WITH SOME HEATING                
LATER TODAY...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP ALONG THAT                  
BOUNDARY OR ANY OTHER RESIDUAL BOUNDARIES. HOWEVER...WILL HAVE THE              
HIGHEST POPS IN THE EAST. PWATS WILL REMAIN NEAR 2 INCHES IN THE                
EAST SO HEAVY RAINFALL IS STILL A THREAT TODAY IN THAT AREA.                    
THE WEATHER PATTERN OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WILL REMAIN                      
SOMEWHAT UNSETTLED AS THE REMNANTS OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW NEVER                 
REALLY LEAVE THE REGION AND THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TO THE WEST                   
NEVER REALLY BUILDS IN. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ONLY MAKES IT AS FAR              
AS THE TEXAS PANHANDLE BEFORE BEING HALTED. ALL MODELS ARE IN GOOD              
AGREEMENT THAT ENERGY FROM THE TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER NORTHEAST                
TEXAS AND THEN DRIFT BACK OVER NORTH TEXAS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL                
DAYS. THUS WILL KEEP 20-30 POPS IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE                     
WEEKEND WITH BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN AGAIN IN THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST.              
SUNDAY LOOKS TO BE THE NEXT BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN ACROSS ALL OF                  
NORTH TEXAS WITH THE HIGHEST POPS ALONG THE RED RIVER. BY                       
MONDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE GETS NUDGED BACK WEST AS FAY MOVES               
INTO THE CENTRAL GOM COAST AND NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT SETS UP.                    
MODELS SUGGEST THAT SEVERAL WEAK DISTURBANCES WILL RIDE THE                     
NORTHERLY FLOW INTO TEXAS AND WILL CONTINUE 20 POPS FOR THE                     
AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST.                  
HAVE STUCK CLOSE TO GUIDANCE FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE BEGINNING             
OF THE FORECAST AND THEN UNDERCUT GUIDANCE A DEGREE OR TWO FOR THE              
LAST FEW DAYS. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL MOSTLY TOP OUT IN THE                     
90S WITH A FEW SCATTERED UPPER 80S THIS WEEKEND. REASON FOR                     
UNDERCUTTING GUIDANCE ON DAYS 6 AND 7 WAS THOUGHT MOS TEMPS WERE                
TOO HIGH FOR NORTHERLY FLOW. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL CONTINUE TO BE                 
IN THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S.                                                    
82/JLD                                                                          
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  91  74  94  75  92 /  20  10  10  10  30                  
WACO, TX              92  72  93  74  92 /  10  10  20  10  30                  
PARIS, TX             87  70  91  71  90 /  40  10  30  10  30                  
DENTON, TX            91  72  93  72  92 /  20  10  10  10  30                  
MCKINNEY, TX          91  71  91  71  92 /  20  10  10  10  30                  
DALLAS, TX            91  72  92  73  92 /  20  10  10  10  30                  
TERRELL, TX           91  72  94  73  91 /  20  10  20  10  30                  
CORSICANA, TX         91  72  93  73  93 /  20  10  20  10  30                  
TEMPLE, TX            92  71  95  73  91 /  10  10  20  10  30                  
&&                                                                              
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
NONE.                                                                           
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
85/92/25                                                                        
</pre> tx                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX                                          
1233 PM CDT THU AUG 21 2008                                                     
.AVIATION...                                                                    
DRY AIR CONTINUES TO WORK INTO THE MID-LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE AS              
SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES IN. THE PRIMARY AREAS FOR              
PRECIP WILL BE EAST AND SOUTH OF THE METROPLEX WHERE THE BEST                   
MOISTURE REMAINS. COVERAGE IS TOO LOW TO MENTION ANY PRECIP FOR THE             
METROPLEX TAFS BUT WILL MONITOR THE SITUATION THROUGHOUT THE                    
AFTERNOON AND AMEND TAFS IF NECESSARY.                                          
DONT THINK WE WILL SEE A COMPLETE REPEAT OF THIS MORNINGS IFR CIGS              
AND MVFR VISIBILITIES. MOISTURE LAYER JUST OFF THE SURFACE WILL                 
NOT BE AS DEEP AND SURFACE WIND SPEEDS WILL ALSO BE AROUND 8                    
KNOTS KEEPING THE AIR RELATIVELY MIXED. BUT WITH SATURATED                      
SOILS...CANT RULE OUT SCT LOW CLOUDS AND SLIGHT RESTRICTIONS IN                 
VISIBILITY.                                                                     
85/NH                                                                           
&&                                                                              
.UPDATE...                                                                      
FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK...JUST MINOR CHANGES TO ACCOUNT FOR LATEST              
TRENDS IN CLOUDS/DEWPOINTS/WINDS. REMOVED POPS WEST OF I-35 AS                  
AREA WILL BE UNDER A REGION OF INCREASING HEIGHTS/SUBSIDENCE                    
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE (THUS INSTABILITY)              
WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE EASTERN CWA...AND COUPLED WITH DRYING ALOFT              
THERE IS A LOW POTENTIAL FOR WET MICROBURSTS THIS AFTERNOON.                    
COVERAGE OF CONVECTION SHOULD REMAIN NEAR OR LESS THAN 30 PERCENT               
GIVEN LACK OF DYNAMIC FORCING THAT HAD BEEN PRESENT THE LAST                    
SEVERAL DAYS. TR.92                                                             
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 321 AM CDT THU AUG 21 2008/                         
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT HAS BROUGHT BENEFICIAL BUT FLOODING RAINS              
TO NORTH TEXAS THE PAST FEW DAYS IS NOW SLIDING INTO KANSAS /PER                
RUC ANALYSIS/. THE ASSOCIATED TROUGH EXTENDS SOUTH ACROSS TEXAS                 
WITH THE AXIS CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CWA. SOME WEAK              
SHORTWAVES CONTINUE TO MOVE AROUND THE BASE OF THE TROUGH. ONE                  
SHORTWAVE IS NOW EXITING NORTHEAST TEXAS AND IS AIDING IN SHOWER                
AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IN OUR EXTREME NE CWA. A STRONGER                  
SHORTWAVE IS FORECASTED TO SKIRT THE RED RIVER THIS AFTERNOON. THE              
BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN TODAY WILL BE ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE               
CWA...AHEAD OF THE TROUGH AXIS AND APPROACHING SHORTWAVE...WHERE                
LIFT WILL BE STRONGEST. ANOTHER POTENTIAL PLAYER FOR TODAY COULD                
BE THE LEFT OVER BOUNDARY/SURFACE TROUGH RUNNING NORTHEAST TO                   
SOUTHWEST ACROSS ALMOST THE MIDDLE OF THE CWA. WITH SOME HEATING                
LATER TODAY...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP ALONG THAT                  
BOUNDARY OR ANY OTHER RESIDUAL BOUNDARIES. HOWEVER...WILL HAVE THE              
HIGHEST POPS IN THE EAST. PWATS WILL REMAIN NEAR 2 INCHES IN THE                
EAST SO HEAVY RAINFALL IS STILL A THREAT TODAY IN THAT AREA.                    
THE WEATHER PATTERN OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WILL REMAIN                      
SOMEWHAT UNSETTLED AS THE REMNANTS OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW NEVER                 
REALLY LEAVE THE REGION AND THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TO THE WEST                   
NEVER REALLY BUILDS IN. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ONLY MAKES IT AS FAR              
AS THE TEXAS PANHANDLE BEFORE BEING HALTED. ALL MODELS ARE IN GOOD              
AGREEMENT THAT ENERGY FROM THE TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER NORTHEAST                
TEXAS AND THEN DRIFT BACK OVER NORTH TEXAS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL                
DAYS. THUS WILL KEEP 20-30 POPS IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE                     
WEEKEND WITH BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN AGAIN IN THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST.              
SUNDAY LOOKS TO BE THE NEXT BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN ACROSS ALL OF                  
NORTH TEXAS WITH THE HIGHEST POPS ALONG THE RED RIVER. BY                       
MONDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE GETS NUDGED BACK WEST AS FAY MOVES               
INTO THE CENTRAL GOM COAST AND NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT SETS UP.                    
MODELS SUGGEST THAT SEVERAL WEAK DISTURBANCES WILL RIDE THE                     
NORTHERLY FLOW INTO TEXAS AND WILL CONTINUE 20 POPS FOR THE                     
AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST.                  
HAVE STUCK CLOSE TO GUIDANCE FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE BEGINNING             
OF THE FORECAST AND THEN UNDERCUT GUIDANCE A DEGREE OR TWO FOR THE              
LAST FEW DAYS. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL MOSTLY TOP OUT IN THE                     
90S WITH A FEW SCATTERED UPPER 80S THIS WEEKEND. REASON FOR                     
UNDERCUTTING GUIDANCE ON DAYS 6 AND 7 WAS THOUGHT MOS TEMPS WERE                
TOO HIGH FOR NORTHERLY FLOW. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL CONTINUE TO BE                 
IN THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S.                                                    
82/JLD                                                                          
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  91  74  94  75  92 /  20  10  10  10  30                  
WACO, TX              92  72  93  74  92 /  10  10  20  10  30                  
PARIS, TX             87  70  91  71  90 /  40  10  30  10  30                  
DENTON, TX            91  72  93  72  92 /  20  10  10  10  30                  
MCKINNEY, TX          91  71  91  71  92 /  20  10  10  10  30                  
DALLAS, TX            91  72  92  73  92 /  20  10  10  10  30                  
TERRELL, TX           91  72  94  73  91 /  20  10  20  10  30                  
CORSICANA, TX         91  72  93  73  93 /  20  10  20  10  30                  
TEMPLE, TX            92  71  95  73  91 /  10  10  20  10  30                  
&&                                                                              
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
NONE.                                                                           
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
85/92/25                                                                        
</pre> tx                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI                                           
338 PM CDT THU AUG 21 2008                                                      
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT                                    
PRECIPITATION CHANCES FROM TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY ARE THE                     
PRIMARY CONCERNS FOR THIS PART OF THE FORECAST.                                 
AT 3 PM...A 500 MB SHORT WAVE TROUGH WAS MOVING NORTH INTO                      
SOUTHERN IOWA AND NORTHERN ILLINOIS. THIS SYSTEM WAS SPREADING                  
LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN NORTHWARD INTO THE FORECAST AREA. THE                    
21.12Z MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THIS SYSTEM WILL                
MOVE NORTH INTO OUR AREA THIS EVENING...AND EXIT THE REGION TOWARD              
SUNRISE ON FRIDAY. AS THIS SYSTEM CONTINUES TO MOVE NORTHWARD...                
THIS GRADUALLY WEAKENS. AS A RESULT...I PLACED THE HIGHEST                      
PRECIPITATION PROBABILITIES IN THE FORECAST FOR THIS EVENING...AND              
THEN WENT WITH JUST CHANCE PROBABILITIES AFTER MIDNIGHT. WITH THE               
BEST FORCING LOCATED ACROSS WISCONSIN...I WENT WITH MY HIGHER                   
CHANCE PROBABILITIES ACROSS WESTERN WISCONSIN.                                  
ON FRIDAY...THE MODELS ARE SOMEWHAT CAUGHT BETWEEN SYSTEM. A MUCH               
WEAKER UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL BE MOVING NORTHWARD THROUGH THE                  
WESTERN GREAT LAKES...AND A MUCH STRONGER 500 MB SHORT WAVE MOVING              
INTO WESTERN ONTARIO AND WESTERN MINNESOTA. AS A RESULT...I HAVE                
JUST HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE PRECIPITATION PROBABILITIES INTO              
THE FORECAST.                                                                   
ON FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...THE MODELS ARE CONSISTENTLY SHOWING              
THAT A POSITIVELY TILTED 500 MB WAVE WILL MOVING THROUGH ONTARIO AND            
NORTHERN GREAT LAKES. MUCH OF THE SYNOPTIC FORCING LOOKS TO BE                  
NORTH OF THE AREA. AS A RESULT...THE PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS AND                  
CHANCES ARE STARTING TO LOOK LESS THAN WHAT THEY WERE A COUPLE OF               
DAYS AGO. I WAS REALLY TEMPTED TO LOWER THE PRECIPITATION                       
PROBABILITIES INTO THE CHANCE RANGE. HOWEVER FOR CONSISTENCY SAKE               
AND THERE STILL BEING A CHANCE THAT THE MODELS MAY REVERT BACK                  
TO THEIR ORIGINAL SOLUTION...I HELD OFF MAKING TOO MANY CHANGES TO              
THESE TIME PERIODS.                                                             
.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY                                            
THE 21.12Z MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT A              
500 MB RIDGE WILL BE IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...         
AND THEN THEY START TO CARVE OUT 500 MB TROUGH ACROSS THE PLAINS AND            
THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. THE ECMWF IS MUCH FASTER THAN               
ITS 21.00Z SOLUTION AND ALSO THE GFS AND GEM. THE GENERATION OF                 
THIS TROUGH MAKES A LOT OF SENSE WHEN ONE LOOKS AT THE VARIOUS                  
STRONG TROPICAL FORCING FEATURES ARE LOCATED AROUND THE GLOBE.                  
THE MODELS TYPICALLY DO NOT HANDLE THESE SITUATIONS THAT WELL...SO              
THIS LEADS TO MUCH UNCERTAINTY IN THIS PART OF THE FORECAST. AT                 
THIS TIME...IT LOOKS LIKE THE BEST PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION                 
LOOKS TO BE FROM WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. IN ADDITION THERE IS QUITE            
A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY WHERE THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL STORM FAY WILL              
END UP NEXT WEEK. THE GEM SUGGEST THAT THIS MOISTURE MAY END UP IN OUR          
AREA ON THURSDAY. MEANWHILE MANY OF THE OTHER MEDIUM RANGE MODELS SUGGEST       
THE TENNESSEE AND OHIO VALLEYS WILL BE AFFECTED ANYWHERE FROM                   
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.                                                        
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING                                      
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL CONTINUE TO             
MOVE NORTHWARD ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES REGION THIS             
AFTERNOON AND INTO TONIGHT. LATEST MOSAIC RADAR INDICATED A SHIELD              
OF PRECIPITATION EXTENDED FROM SOUTHEASTERN MINNESOTA TO NORTHERN               
MINNESOTA. VISIBILITIES UNDERNEATH PRECIPITATION WERE RANGING FROM              
2SM TO 5SM AND CEILINGS VARIED FROM BELOW A 1000 FEET TO 5000 FEET.             
LIMITED INSTABILITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL                             
DISTURBANCE...HAVE NO MENTION OF THUNDER AT BOTH TAF SITES THIS                 
AFTERNOON AND INTO TONIGHT. WITH THE ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND            
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE TRACKING NORTH INTO BOTH TAF SITES. BEGAN               
LOWERING CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES TO MVFR CONDITIONS BY 20Z                    
THURSDAY. LATEST RUC AND NAM INDICATE INVERSION DEVELOPING OVER THE             
REGION LATE THIS EVENING. WITH DECENT AMOUNT OF LOW LEVEL                       
MOISTURE...HAVE LOWERED CEILINGS TO IFR CONDITIONS AT BOTH LSE AND              
RST TAF SITES BY 04Z AND 05Z FRIDAY. A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT                  
DEVELOPS OVER THE AREA FRIDAY MORNING. HAVE INTRODUCED WIND GUSTS UP            
TO 23 KNOTS AT RST AFTER 15Z.                                                   
&&                                                                              
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
WI...NONE.                                                                      
MN...NONE.                                                                      
IA...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
AVIATION - DTJ                                                                  
SHORT AND LONG TERM - BOYNE                                                     
</pre> wi