AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY                                              
1244 AM EST FRI DEC 5 2008                                                      
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS A SERIES OF FAST MOVING SYSTEMS WILL                     
INFLUENCE OUR WEATHER.  A COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE OFFSHORE THIS                   
EVENING.  HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE OHIO VALLEY FRIDAY AND              
DRIFT OFFSHORE SATURDAY...BUT PRODUCE A COLD FLOW OF AIR ACROSS                 
THE GREAT LAKES. SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY A CLIPPER TYPE LOW PRESSURE          
AREA WILL RACE ACROSS SOUTHEAST CANADA...DRAGGING YET ANOTHER COLD              
CDFNT THROUGH THE REGION...AND BRING SOME LIGHT SNOW. SUNDAY NIGHT              
INTO MONDAY AN ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE AREA WILL MOVE EAST FROM THE                
GREAT LAKES ACROSS OUR REGION. MIDWEEK A RATHER COMPLEX STORM                   
SYSTEM WILL HEAD OUR WAY FROM THE TENNESSEE VALLEY.                             
&&                                                                              
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...                                         
OVERNIGHT PER THE RUC13 AND NAM12/18Z SUGGESTS THAT SHEAR WILL NOT              
ONLY CONTINUE BUT BECOME MORE NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT. THIS HAS                     
RESULTED IN A SHIFT SOUTHWARD OF THE EXPECTED LAKE BAND AND WILL                
EXPAND THE ADVISORY INTO SOUTHERN HERKIMER COUNTY. THIS BAND IS                 
EXPECTED TO LIFT NORTHWARD AROUND SUNRISE AND COULD POSE AN ISSUE               
ALONG THE THRUWAY MORNING COMMUTE.                                              
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...                               
FRIDAY AND FRI NIGHT THE BAND FLUCTUATES BTWN 280 AND 250                       
DEG...PUTTING MUCH OF N HERKIMER AND W HAMILTON COS IN PERIODS OF               
LAKE EFFECT SNOW. THIS FIRE HOUSE EFFECT WILL KEEP THE EVENT FROM               
REACHING WARNING CRITERIA AS THE SNOW IS SPREAD OVER A WIDER AREA.              
AWAY FROM THE LAKES UNDER HIGH PRESSURE AND SUBSIDENCE FAIR                     
WEATHER EXPECTED...BUT MOISTURE AND CLOUDS OFF THE LAKES WILL KEEP              
IT MORE PARTLY CLOUDY THAN CLEAR.                                               
FRIDAY NIGHT SFC RIDGE SETS UP FM MAINE TO W VA. LAKE EFFECT DIMINISHES         
AS UPPER SUPPORT ENDS...AND THE WHATS LEFT IS TURNED TWRD SAINT                 
LAWRENCE VALLEY AS H850 FLOW BCMS SW. JUST ABOUT IDEAL RADIATION                
CONDITIONS FRI NT AND WILL TAKE MINS SEVERAL DEGREES BLO MODEL                  
BLEND.                                                                          
SAT WILL START FAIR...BUT CLOUDS ASSOC WITH WAA AHEAD OF APPROACHING            
CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO REGION LATER IN THE DAY. THE NAM IS               
SLOWER WITH THIS BY 3-6 HOURS...BUT BOTH MDLS HOLD PCPN OFF TILL                
EVENING.                                                                        
THE CLIPPER SFC LOW MOVES THROUGH THE E GRTLKS AS A SERIES OF                   
500HPA SHORT WAVES CARVE OUT A NEGATIVELY TILED TROF AT THAT LEVEL              
FM THE GRTLKS TO MID ATLC. FCA IS IN WAA AREA BETWEEN SFC LOW OVER              
E GRTLKS AND DEVELOPING OFFSHORE COASTAL LOW SAT NT INTO SUNDAY.                
THE MAIN OCCLUDED AXIS IS EAST OF FCA SUNDAY MORNING.  HWVR THE                 
GFS/NAM SHOWS CONTINUING WIDESPREAD -SHSN IN CAA MAINLY N & W OF                
ALB. WHILE CONDS IN LOWER LEVELS ARE NOT INDICATIVE OF LK                       
RESPONSE INTO OUR AREA...(N-NNW FLOW)...THIS PCPN IS MAINLY                     
DRIVEN BY THE STRENGTH OF THE 500 HPA TROF. NAM IS STILL A TAD                  
FASTER ENDING THIS EVENT. MUCH OF AREA WILL SEE -SN...WITH AN INCH              
OR SO POSSIBLE VALLEYS AND A FEW INCHES IN HIGHER ELEVATIONS...PARTICULARLY     
ADIRONDACKS. THE ENSEMBLES HAVE TWO OUTLIERS THAT WOULD INDICATE A              
6 INCH SNOW STORM...BUT THEY ARE OUTLIERS.                                      
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...                                   
SFC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE OUT OF THE AREA WITH A MOSTLY                 
DRY BUT COLD SUNDAY NIGHT...LEADING INTO A DRY MONDAY TO START OFF              
THE PERIOD. MONDAY TEMPS WILL TRY TO BREAK FREEZING...WITH 850                  
TEMPS IN THE NEGATIVE TEENS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE                  
NORTHEAST ON MONDAY ALLOWING FOR MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. THIS WILL                  
QUICKLY BE FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MONDAY NIGHT.                
INCREASED POPS TO SLGT CHC AND CHC OVERNIGHT. GFS A LITTLE FASTER               
THAN ECMWF AND DGEX WITH ONSET OF PRECIP. GFS HAS H500 CLOSED LOW               
IN MANITOBA WITH A TROUGH OVER THE PLAIN STATES HELPING TO FEED                 
MOISTURE THE SFC LOW MOVING TOWARDS TENNESSEE. THE H500 LOW WILL                
DEEPEN AS THE SFC LOW CONTINUES TO MOVE NORTHEAST...SPLITTING BY                
WED MORNING...BECOMING A DOUBLE BARREL CLOSED LOW SYSTEM. THIS                  
COMPLEX SYSTEM WILL LEAD TO ANOTHER MIXED PRECIP EVENT. THIS DEEP               
LOW WILL ALSO BRING STRONG COLD AIR...WITH MAX TEMPS ON THURSDAY                
IN THE M20S. 12Z ECMWF HAS LESS COMPLEX SYSTEM...WITH SLOWER                    
PROGRESSION...AND WARMER TEMPS FROM A MORE BROAD TROUGH.                        
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...                                       
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY WITH              
MAINLY SKC CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT               
PERIOD AS ANY LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS AND SNOW SHOWERS REMAIN WELL WEST              
OF THE HUDSON VALLEY. KGFL MAY EXPERIENCE SOME SNOW FLURRIES                    
ASSOCIATED WITH THE LAKE EFFECT THIS AFTERNOON MAINLY BETWEEN 17Z               
AND 22Z AND WILL CONTINUE VCSH WITH NO SNOW ACCUMULATION EXPECTED.              
THE LAKE EFFECT SNOWS WILL AFFECT MOSTLY THE ADIRONDACKS AND TUG                
HILL. GENERALLY EXPECT BKN035 BKN050 DURING DAYTIME HOURS WITH                  
SKIES BECOMING SKC ONCE AGAIN THIS EVENING.                                     
WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE W-NW AT 5-8 KTS THROUGH THE PERIOD.                     
OUTLOOK...                                                                      
FRI NGHT-SAT...VFR...NO SIG WX.                                                 
SAT NGHT-SUN...MVFR/IFR...CHC -SN.                                              
MON...VFR...NO SIG WX.                                                          
TUE...VFR/MVFR...CHC -SHSN/-SHRA.                                               
&&                                                                              
.HYDROLOGY...                                                                   
NO HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 5 DAYS. IT WILL TURN               
MUCH COLDER STARTING LATER TODAY WITH PRECIPITATION CHANGING FROM               
RAIN TO SNOW.                                                                   
STARTING TONIGHT TEMPERATURES OVER THE REGION WILL AVERAGE WELL BELOW           
FREEZING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH HIGHS FROM THE MID TWENTIES TO               
THE MID THIRTIES AND LOWS FROM THE MID SINGLES TO THE MID TWENTIES.             
THIS WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR ICE TO FORM AND THICKEN ON RIVERS AND                
LAKES.                                                                          
FOR DETAILS ON THE RIVERS...PLEASE VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC                
PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.                                
&&                                                                              
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
CT...NONE.                                                                      
NY...LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR                 
     NYZ032-033-038.                                                            
MA...NONE.                                                                      
VT...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SYNOPSIS...SNYDER                                                               
NEAR TERM...BGM/SNYDER                                                          
SHORT TERM...BGM/SNYDER                                                         
LONG TERM...KGS                                                                 
AVIATION...11                                                                   
HYDROLOGY...RCK                                                                 
</pre> ct                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ                                         
1015 AM EST SAT DEC 6 2008                                                      
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT ACROSS THE AREA TODAY, THEN RECEDE EAST AND            
WEAKEN. PRIMARY LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION            
TONIGHT AND THEN BEGIN TO WEAKEN, WHILE SECONDARY LOW PRESSURE                  
DEVELOPS OFF THE CAROLINA COAST, LIFTS NORTHEAST TOWARD THE CANADIAN            
MARITIMES AND DEEPENS SHARPLY. BY LATE SUNDAY, DEEP LOW PRESSURE                
OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES WILL PULL A RUSH OF ARCTIC AIR INTO OUR             
REGION. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION MONDAY. A COLD                 
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY.                                
&&                                                                              
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...                                         
HAVE MADE A FEW ADJUSTMENTS TO THE MORNING FCST PACKAGE.  FIRST,                
HAVE INCREASED POPS A BIT OVER THE WHOLE AREA.  THE LATEST RUC HAS              
SOME PRECIP REACHING THE ERN SHORE OF MD AND DELMARVA BY 00Z. THERE             
IS ALSO SOME WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT. HOWEVER, THE NAM/WRF AND THE STAT            
GUIDANCE IS STILL VERY DRY.  LATEST OBS HAVE DEW POINTS STILL IN THE            
TEENS, SO THE AMS REMAINS VERY DRY.  SO, A SLIGHT INCREASE SEEMS                
REASONABLE FOR LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING, WANTED TO TAKE THE             
PRUDENT COURSE AND NOT INCREASE THINGS TOO MUCH.  OTHERWISE, HAVE               
ALSO INCREASED CLOUDS A BIT OVER THE AREA BASED ON LATEST SATELLITE             
TRENDS.  MOST OF THE CURRENT CLOUDINESS IS CIRRUS, BUT CLOUDS                   
SHOULD BEGIN TO LOWER AND THICKEN WITH TIME.                                    
WINDS SHOULD BE PRETTY LIGHT FOR MUCH OF THE DAY AS SURFACE HIGH                
PRESSURE MOVES BY US, BUT EVENTUALLY THEY SHOULD DEVELOP A SOUTHERLY            
COMPONENT WITH THE WEAKENING HIGH TO OUR EAST AND THE LOW TO OUR                
WEST. FORECAST TEMPERATURES ARE A BLEND OF CONTINUITY AND GUIDANCE.             
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...                               
TONIGHT, THE APPROACHING MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL SHARPEN AS A JET                 
STREAK, WHICH WAS DROPPING OUT OF CANADA EARLY THIS MORNING, DIGS               
AROUND THE TROUGH`S WESTERN SIDE, BOTTOMS OUT AND BEGINS TO LIFT                
AROUND THE EASTERN SIDE. THE SURFACE LOW MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT               
LAKES WILL NOT BENEFIT FROM THIS, BUT THE SECONDARY LOW OFF THE                 
EASTERN SEABOARD WILL BEGIN TO DEEPEN. MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT             
THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY WITH SOME PIVA, ALTHOUGH THE BRUNT OF THAT SEEMS             
FOCUSED FURTHER SOUTH. THEY ALSO AGREE ON THE BEGINNINGS OF SOME MID            
TO UPPER LEVEL Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE AND SOME APPROACHING LOWER LEVEL            
FRONTOGENESIS, BUT THAT SEEMS TO COME TOGETHER AROUND 12Z. THEY DO              
PAINT SOME ISENTROPIC LIFT AT THE AFOREMENTIONED LEVEL LIFTING                  
THROUGH OVERNIGHT. MODEL QPF EXISTS, BUT IS UNDER ONE-TENTH OF AN               
INCH AS THE BULK OF THE ACTION IS FORECAST WITH THE SECONDARY LOW.              
THIS DOESN`T SEEM LIKE A SCENARIO IN WHICH STAT GUIDANCE WOULD BE               
WOEFULLY UNDERDONE, AND WE CANNOT FIND ANY POPS FROM ANY PACKAGE IN             
OUR FORECAST AREA THAT EXCEEDS THE CHANCE LEVEL. WE WERE CARRYING               
HIGH LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS, AND WE`VE BACKED OFF TO LOW LIKELY.            
OUR TEMPERATURES MAINTAIN CONTINUITY, AND BETWEEN THEM AND MODEL                
SOUNDINGS WE CARRY PRECIPITATION TYPES OF SNOW IN THE NORTHWEST AND             
A CHANGING MIXED BAG FURTHER SOUTH. ACCUMULATIONS IN THE NORTHWEST              
ARE NOT, AT PRESENT, THOUGHT TO AMOUNT TO MUCH.                                 
AFTER THAT, THINGS MAY GET INTERESTING. THE DEEPENING SECONDARY LOW             
COULD BECOME A BOMB AS IT LIFTS TOWARD THE CANADIAN MARITIMES DURING            
THE DAY ON SUNDAY. THE WARMTH AND MOISTURE THAT IT THROWS INTO THE              
EASTERN SIDE OF THE MID LEVEL TROUGH AND THE DECENT JET LIFTING UP              
SAME SIDE OF SAID TROUGH HAVE CONSISTENTLY BEEN FORECAST BY THE                 
ECMWF, GFS AND NAM TO CAUSE IT TO DEVELOP A NEGATIVE TILT AS IT                 
SWEEPS ACROSS US. ALL THREE MODELS HAVE A VERY NICE VORTICITY MAX               
MOVING ACROSS US WITH THE TROUGH AXIS. GFS H925 AND H8 WINDS ARE IN             
THE 40 TO 50 KT RANGE BY LATE SUNDAY, AND THE ECMWF WINDS ARE AT                
LEAST AS STRONG. THEIR TRAJECTORY IS OFF THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES,               
AND THE H8 TEMPERATURES OVER US BY 00Z MONDAY ARE EASILY BELOW                  
-10 DEG C. THEY`RE EASILY BELOW -15 DEG C OVER THE EASTERN LAKES.               
MODEL SOUNDINGS IN THE WAKE OF THE SURFACE FRONTAL PASSAGE, WHICH               
HAPPENS AROUND OR A BIT BEFORE DAYBREAK, ARE DRY ADIABATIC THROUGH              
H8, AND THE SUBSIDENCE CAP IN THE COLD AIR IS UP AT AROUND 9K FT FOR            
THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY. THE SURFACE FLOW IS CYCLONIC. THE WINDEX             
SCHEME THAT WE USE OFF THE OLD NGM FOUS DATA SUGGESTS THAT SNOW                 
SQUALLS ARE A POSSIBILITY AT PHL. MEANWHILE, STAT GUIDANCE POPS ARE             
SLIGHT CHANCE AT BEST, AND THE HIGHEST ONES ARE FROM THE FWC                    
GUIDANCE.                                                                       
REGARDING POPS, WE`VE DECIDED THAT THE PIVA, THE TRAJECTORY OF THE              
LOWER LEVEL WINDS, THE MORNING FRONTOGENESIS AND Q-VECTOR                       
CONVERGENCE, THE CYCLONIC SURFACE FLOW, THE INITIALLY HIGH                      
SUBSIDENCE CAPS AND THE INDICATIONS OF THE WINDEX TECHNIQUE ARE                 
WORTH UPPING POPS TO HIGH CHANCE OVER THE NORTHWEST, MODERATE CHANCE            
AROUND THE I-95 CORRIDOR AND LOW END OF CHANCE SOUTHEAST OF THERE.              
WE ARE GOING FOR SNOW SHOWERS OVER LAND AND MUCH OF THE WATER, AND              
WE`RE GOING TO MENTION THE CHANCE OF SOME SNOW SQUALLS FROM THE FALL            
LINE NORTHWEST. WE CARRY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THEM AROUND THE I-95                
CORRIDOR. WE WILL MENTION THE POSSIBILITY OF THESE IN THE HWO. IF               
THE MODELS ARE CORRECT, ANY SNOW SHOULD BE ON THE DECLINE SUNDAY                
AFTERNOON.                                                                      
REGARDING WINDS, WE ARE FORECASTING WIND ADVISORY CRITERION WINDS TO            
DEVELOP DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY AND DIMINISH SLOWLY SUNDAY NIGHT               
INTO MONDAY. WE WILL NOT PUT UP AN ADVISORY AT THIS POINT, BUT AGAIN            
WILL MENTION THIS IN THE HWO.                                                   
FOR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO THE FIRST PART OF MONDAY, THE TRAJECTORIES                
ABOVE THE SURFACE MADE US KEEP LINGERING FLURRIES IN THE FAR                    
NORTHWESTERN ZONES FOR A TIME. OTHERWISE, WE ARE PRECIPITATION FREE.            
WINDS, AS NOTED ABOVE, WILL DIMINISH GRADUALLY.                                 
REGARDING TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY, WE STAYED CLOSER TO CONTINUITY                
THAN TO GUIDANCE ON THE COLD AIR ADVECTION AND EXPECTED CLOUDS, AND             
WE HAVE TEMPERATURES FALLING IN THE AFTERNOON. SUNDAY NIGHT AND                 
MONDAY ARE A COLD BLEND OF GUIDANCE AND CONTINUITY. WIND CHILLS ON              
SUNDAY NIGHT LOOK TO TANK, AND THEY WILL BE MENTIONED IN THE HWO.               
FOR NOW, THEY DO NOT SHOW IN THE TEXT PRODUCT BUT ARE IN THE                    
MATRICES.                                                                       
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...                                     
FOR MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...THE COLD HIGH MOVES OFF THE COAST                
AND A RETURN FLOW OF WARM ADVECTION DEVELOPS WITH THE UPPER TROUGH              
REFORMING AND DIGGING TO OUR WEST. THIS MEANS THE THREAT OF MORE                
PCPN. FOLLOWING HPC PROGS, IT LOOKS LIKE IT WILL WARM UP ENOUGH SO              
THAT MOST ANY PCPN SHOULD FALL AS RAIN.                                         
WEDNESDAY...A COLD FRONT COMES THROUGH FROM THE WEST ALLOWING ANY               
PCPN TO BECOME SHOWERY. HOWEVER, WITH MORE COLD AIR, ANY PCPN                   
SHOULD CHANGE TO SNOW SHOWERS.                                                  
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...THIS IS THE PERIOD WITH THE LEAST AMOUNT OF               
CONFIDENCE. ANOTHER FRONT SHOULD CROSS THE REGION, BUT THERE IS                 
THE POSSIBILITY OF LOW PRESSURE FORMING ON THE FRONT AND MOVING                 
ACROSS OR EAST OF THE REGION. IF THIS IS TRUE, THE TIMING AND TRACK             
OF THE LOW WILL DETERMINE IF WE GET AN EAST COAST STORM WITH SNOW               
IN PARTS OF THE AREA OR NOT.                                                    
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION /10Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...                                   
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,             
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.                                               
VFR CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN THROUGH ALL, IF NOT MOST OF THE DAYLIGHT             
HOURS, COURTESY OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND A WEST-SOUTHWEST FLOW              
ALOFT. SOME CIRRUS HAS ALREADY BEGUN TO FORM AND CLOUDS WILL                    
GRADUALLY THICKEN AND LOWER. DECENT ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL OCCUR AS               
THE LOW IN THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES INTERACTS WITH THE LOW DEVELOPING            
OFF THE EAST COAST. A QUASI-WARM FRONT IS CONTINUED ON THE MODELS TO            
LIFT SLOWLY THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT. ALTHOUGH THE MOS STATISTICAL              
GUIDANCE CAPS PROBABILITIES IN THE CHANCE CATEGORY, THERE SHOULD BE             
MORE SUBSTANTIAL, ALBEIT LIGHT, PRECIPITATION AS THIS FEATURE LIFTS             
THROUGH THE AREA IN VIEW OF THE MODERATE UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION AND             
"JUST ENOUGH" MOISTURE. SO, CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES ARE FORECAST              
TO DROP TO MARGINAL VFR TONIGHT. FOR THE PHILADELPHIA 30 HOUR TAF,              
CONDITIONS WERE IMPROVED TOWARD MORNING AS THE PRECIPITATION                    
DIMINISHES TO PERHAPS SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS.                                   
REGARDING PRECIPITATION TYPE, NORTHERN TAF SITES LOOK TO BE ALL                 
SNOW. SOUTHERN TAF SITES, ON THE SOUTHERN SIDE OF THE 1300 METER                
1000-850 HPA THICKNESS DEMARCATION, SHOULD BE WEIGHTED TOWARD RAIN.             
THE CENTRAL TAF SITES WILL LIKELY START OFF AS RAIN, OR A MIX OF                
RAIN AND SNOW, BEFORE CHANGING TO SNOW AS THE COLUMN COOLS FROM                 
EVAPORATIVE EFFECTS AND DIURNAL TRENDS WHICH CAUSE SURFACE COOLING.             
LIGHT WINDS THIS MORNING UNDER THE HIGH WILL SHIFT AROUND TO SOUTH              
AT 5 TO 10 KNOTS BY LATE MORNING OR MIDDAY AS THE HIGH SHIFTS                   
OFFSHORE. THEN, WINDS WILL SWITCH AROUND TO WEST-SOUTHWEST TOWARD               
SUNDAY MORNING IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT.                                        
OUTLOOK...                                                                      
THE GREAT LAKES LOW AND THE COASTAL LOW WILL MERGE WELL OFF THE NEW             
ENGLAND COASTAL WATERS SUNDAY MORNING, AND THE RESULTANT                        
INTENSIFICATION WILL CAUSE GUSTY WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS AND AN                    
UNSTABLE FLOW REGIME OVER OUR AREA. THIS MAY CAUSE SCATTERED SNOW               
SHOWERS SUNDAY AFTERNOON, ALONG WITH STRONG AND VERY GUSTY WINDS,               
WHICH ARE VERY LIKELY TO NEGATIVELY IMPACT AIR TRAVEL SUNDAY                    
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD MONDAY BUT MOVE                 
OFFSHORE MONDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER FRONT WILL HEAD IN FOR WEDNESDAY.                
&&                                                                              
.MARINE...                                                                      
CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY OR WARNING CONDITIONS TODAY               
AND TONIGHT, BUT THEN LOOK ALIVE MATEY AS HIGH-END GALE CONDITIONS              
ARE EXPECTED BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON, CONTINUING INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.                 
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA THIS MORNING WILL MOVE OFFSHORE THIS                
AFTERNOON. MARINE CONDITIONS SHOULD BE FINE, BUT COLD. RAIN AND SOME            
SNOW MOVING IN FOR TONIGHT WILL LOWER VISIBILITIES, BUT WINDS AND               
SEAS WILL REMAIN UNDER ADVISORY CRITERIA. LOW PRESSURE OVER THE                 
EASTERN GREAT LAKES WILL MOVE EASTWARD TONIGHT AND MERGE WITH A LOW             
HEADING NORTHEASTWARD OFF THE EAST COAST. AS THEY MERGE SUNDAY,                 
RAPID INTENSIFICATION WILL CAUSE A STRONG CIRCULATION OVER OUR AREA             
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. WEST-NORTHWEST 925 HPA WINDS ARE                    
FORECAST TO REACH 45 KNOTS, AND WITH MUCH COLDER AIR OVER RELATIVELY            
WARM WATER, DOWNWARD MOMENTUM TRANSFER SHOULD BE EXCELLENT. SO, THE             
INHERITED GALE WATCH WILL BE CHANGED TO A GALE WARNING, AND THE                 
TIMES WILL BE ADJUSTED...BACKED UP TO 16Z SUNDAY FOR A START TIME,              
AND RUN THROUGH 11Z MONDAY.                                                     
THE STRONG WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW WILL ALSO RESULT IN BELOW NORMAL                 
TIDES. HOWEVER, AT THIS TIME IT DOES NOT APPEAR AS IF THEY WILL                 
REACH THE BLOWOUT TIDE THRESHOLD, ACCORDING TO NGM AND AVIATION                 
STORM SURGE GUIDANCE WHEN COUPLED WITH THE ASTRONOMICAL TIDES.                  
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE FOR MONDAY BUT MOVE OFFSHORE BY TUESDAY.            
THEN, ANOTHER FRONT IS FORECAST TO APPROACH TUESDAY NIGHT AND                   
WEDNESDAY, PRECEDED BY STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS. THIS WOULD BE A CASE             
OF WARMER AIR OVER COLDER WATER, SO THERE WOULD BE LESS MIXING OF               
MOMENTUM DOWN TO THE SURFACE. HOWEVER, SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY                     
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS SYSTEM AROUND THE MIDDLE OF NEXT              
WEEK.                                                                           
&&                                                                              
.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
PA...NONE.                                                                      
NJ...NONE.                                                                      
DE...NONE.                                                                      
MD...NONE.                                                                      
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 9 AM SUNDAY TO 6 AM EST MONDAY FOR ANZ430-           
     431-450>455.                                                               
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SYNOPSIS...DELISI                                                               
NEAR TERM...NIERENBERG/DELISI                                                   
SHORT TERM...DELISI                                                             
LONG TERM...STAUBER                                                             
AVIATION...NIERENBERG                                                           
MARINE...                                                                       
</pre> de                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL                                         
415 AM EST FRI DEC 5 2008                                                       
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
07Z WATER VAPOR AND H4 RUC ANALYSIS SHOWING A RATHER UNEVENTFUL                 
UPPER LEVEL PATTERN ACROSS THE CONUS EARLY THIS MORNING. NATION IS              
SPLIT ALOFT BY A STRUNG OUT UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING FROM EASTERN                 
CANADA DOWN THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND THEN SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE              
FOUR CORNERS REGION. UPPER PATTERN ALONG THE CENTRAL/NORTHEAST GULF             
COAST IS ZONAL IN NATURE WITH OCCASIONAL FAST MOVING AND WEAK                   
DISTURBANCES EMBEDDED WITHIN. ONE SUCH SHORTWAVE CROSSED OVERHEAD               
THIS PAST EVENING AND IS NOW SHEARING OUT TO THE NORTHEAST LEAVING              
LITTLE IN THE WAY OF LARGE SCALE FORCING OVERHEAD.                              
AT THE SURFACE...SURFACE TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT               
EXTENDS ACROSS THE EASTERN FORECAST AREA FROM THE CAROLINAS TO OUR              
OFFSHORE WATERS. THIS TROUGH IS MAKING PAINFULLY SLOW PROGRESS                  
EASTWARD AND THIS SLOW MOTION SOUTH AND EAST WILL CONTINUE INTO THE             
DAYLIGHT HOURS. LOW DECK OF CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT COVERS             
THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS MORNING AND IS ALSO SHOWING THE             
SAME SLOW MOVEMENT EAST. WITH THE UPPER SUPPORT FOR LIFT VERY WEAK              
AT THIS POINT...REGIONAL RADARS ARE SHOWING ONLY A SCATTERING OF                
LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION. THESE SHOWERS ARE LARGELY IN A ZONE            
EAST OF A LINE FROM KPFN TO KABY AND WEST OF A LINE FROM PERRY TO               
TIFTON.                                                                         
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...                                           
WEAK SURFACE FRONT WILL SLOWLY PUSH SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE EASTERN                
ZONES DURING THE MORNING HOURS AND EXIT SOUTHEAST OF THE FL BIG BEND            
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THIS FRONT IS UNLIKE SOME OF THE MORE POTENT              
SURGES SEEN OVER THE PAST FEW WEEKS IN TERMS OF COLD AIR WITH ONLY A            
SLIGHTLY COOLER AIRMASS IN ITS WAKE. AS WAS MENTIONED IN THE                    
SYNOPSIS ABOVE...MID/UPPER LEVEL SYNOPTIC SUPPORT FOR LIFT IS                   
LIMITED AT BEST THROUGH THE DAY. WITH THIS IN MIND...SUPPORT FOR                
SHOWERS WILL LARGELY HAVE TO COME FROM THE LOWER LEVELS. CURRENT                
SHOWERS ACROSS THE MIDDLE OF THE FORECAST AREA ARE FORMING IN A                 
REGION OF WEAK FORCED ASCENT ALONG THE NOSE OF AN 850MB THETA-E                 
RIDGE. GFS/NAM IN AGREEMENT SHOWING THIS RIDGE WEAKENING A BIT                  
DURING THE DAY WHILE SLOWLY PROGRESSING EASTWARD WITH THE FRONT                 
INTO THE EASTERN FLORIDA BIG BEND/SOUTH-CENTRAL GA. WITH THIS IN                
MIND WILL TAPER POPS OFF ACROSS THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE AREA FOR              
THE AFTERNOON HOURS WITH HIGHEST SHOWER CHANCES SOUTH AND EAST OF A             
LINE FROM APALACHICOLA TO VALDOSTA AFTER 1 OR 2 PM. IF SHOULD BE                
MENTIONED THAT DESPITE THE RAIN CHANCES...THE OVERALL IMPACT WILL BE            
LIMITED WITH LIGHT RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF GENERALLY ONLY AROUND              
ONE TENTH OF AN INCH AT BEST. WHILE THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE AREA              
IS LIKELY TO REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT                          
HOURS...FURTHER NORTHWEST WILL SEE IMPROVING CONDITIONS. MOISTURE               
LEVELS THROUGH THE COLUMN WILL BE SLOWLY SCOURING OUT ACROSS                    
PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST AL/SOUTHWEST GA AND THE FLORIDA                           
PANHANDLE...ALLOWING FOR INCREASING AMOUNTS OF SUN...ESPECIALLY                 
AFTER NOON.                                                                     
SURFACE FRONT STALLS ACROSS THE NORTH-CENTRAL FL PENINSULA THIS                 
EVENING AND REMAIN IN THIS VICINITY THROUGH TONIGHT. MOST OF THE                
AREA WILL SEE DRY CONDITIONS TONIGHT WITH THE FRONT A MEMORY OFF TO             
THE SOUTHEAST. HOWEVER...IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE STALLED FRONT               
(MAINLY SOUTH AND EAST OF TALLAHASSEE AND VALDOSTA) ACROSS THE                  
EASTERN BIG BEND...LOW LEVEL ISENTROPIC LIFT ALONG THE 290-300K                 
SURFACES SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT A CONTINUED CHANCE OF SCATTERED            
MAINLY LIGHT SHOWERS. ON TOP OF THIS LOWER LEVEL LIFT...WILL ALSO BE            
WATCHING ANOTHER WEAK DISTURBANCE ALOFT RACING EASTWARD ALONG THE               
NORTHEAST GULF COAST. GFS IS SHOWING A QUICK SHOT OF DEEP SYNOPTIC              
LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE TO ADD SUPPORT FOR THE SHOWERS.               
THIS ADDED LIFT MAY ALSO BE ADD JUST ENOUGH TO RESULT IN A RUMBLE OR            
TWO OF THUNDER DOWN TOWARD CROSS CITY. IN FACT SHOWALTER INDICES DO             
DROP TO AROUND ZERO OVER THE SOUTHEAST BIG BEND AFTER MIDNIGHT. A               
COOLER NIGHT IS IN STORE FOR ALL BEHIND THE FRONT. GRIDS NOW SHOWING            
30S OVER THE NW ZONES AND LOWER TO MIDDLE 40S FURTHER SOUTHEAST.                
THERE ARE GUIDANCE MEMBERS SHOWING A LIGHT FREEZE OVER PORTIONS OF              
SE AL AND INLAND SECTIONS OF THE FL PANHANDLE. AM A BIT CONCERNED               
THAT SOME ADDITIONAL CLOUDCOVER ASSOCIATED WITH THE PASSING                     
MID-LEVEL IMPULSE WILL PREVENT THESE TEMPERATURES FROM BEING                    
ACHIEVED AND WILL KEEP THE LOWEST TEMPERATURES FROM DROPPING BELOW              
FREEZING. EVEN STILL MAY SEE SOME PATCHY FROST IN UNSHELTERED AREA              
OF THE WEST.                                                                    
SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...IMPULSE IN THE MID-LEVELS EXITS                   
TO OUR EAST EARLY ON SATURDAY. WEAK CYCLOGENESIS DURING THIS TIME               
OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST WILL BEGIN PULLING THE BOUNDARY FORWARD                 
AGAIN. WILL END POPS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST BIG BEND BY SUNRISE ON                
SATURDAY FOR THIS REASON WITH A DRY DAY NOW FORECAST AREA WIDE. WILL            
BE WATCHING AN AMPLIFYING MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE               
EASTERN THIRD OF THE NATION LATER SATURDAY AND AT NIGHT. THIS TROUGH            
WILL FORCE THE NEXT COLD FRONT INTO THE AREA SATURDAY EVENING.                  
MOISTURE WILL BE VERY LIMITED AND EXPECTING A RAPID AND DRY FRONTAL             
PASSAGE BY SUNRISE. WITH A MIX OF SUN AND CLOUDS IN THE FORECAST                
SHOULD BE ABLE TO GET AFTERNOON TEMPS UP IN TO THE LOWER 60S NORTH              
AND MIDDLE 60S SOUTH. COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT BRING A               
STEADY DROP IN TEMPS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. CURRENT GRIDS                
SHOWING LOWER TO MIDDLE 30S NORTH AND MIDDLE 30S TO LOWER 40S SOUTH             
BY SUNRISE. AT THIS TIME THE RIDGE POSITION APPEARS TOO FAR NW TO               
ALLOW A GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING SETUP...EVEN IN THE FAR WESTERN                
ZONES. WILL ONCE AGAIN NOT DROP LOW TEMPS BELOW THE FREEZING MARK.              
SUNDAY...PLEASANT AND COOL DAY LOOKS IN STORE FOR SUNDAY WITH MOSTLY            
SUNNY SKIES AND A STEADY NORTHERLY BREEZE. WEAK CAA WILL PREVENT                
HIGH TEMPERATURES FROM REACHING THE COLUMN POTENTIAL. HOWEVER...                
STILL FEEL THE MAV IS A TAD COOL AND WILL BUMP UP HIGHS A COUPLE OF             
DEGREES INTO THE UPPER 50S NORTH AND THE LOWER 60S SOUTH.                       
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM (SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)...                                     
AFTER A COOL START TO THE DAY ON MONDAY...DEEP LAYER RIDGING WILL               
DEVELOP OVER THE EASTERN CONUS EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A 500 MB LONG WAVE            
TROUGH (AND ASSOCIATED FRONTAL SYSTEM) PROPAGATE TOWARD THE EAST.               
BOTH THE GFS MOS AND GFS BIAS CORRECTED GUIDANCE FORECAST A LIGHT               
FREEZE MONDAY...BUT THIS SEEMS SOMEWHAT UNLIKELY GIVEN THE POSITION             
OF THE SURFACE HIGH (ALONG THE VA COAST) AND THE POSSIBILITY OF                 
INCREASING CS SUNDAY NIGHT. THERE ARE CONSIDERABLE DIFFERENCES AMONG            
THE VARIOUS MODEL SOLUTIONS ON THE TIMING AND INTENSITY OF THIS NEXT            
SYSTEM...BUT IT APPEARS THAT PORTIONS OF OUR AREA WILL RECEIVE 2 TO             
3 INCHES OF RAIN WITHIN THE TUESDAY-THURSDAY MORNING TIME FRAME. THE            
OPERATIONAL GFS IS SLOWER AND FARTHER SOUTH WITH ITS SURFACE LOW                
(TRACKING ACROSS SOUTH GA WEDNESDAY) THAN THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN AND             
CMC SOLUTIONS. THE ECMWF SOLUTION IS SLOWER THAN THE OPERATIONAL                
GFS...AND THE UKMET IMPLIES THE FRONT MAY STALL BY MID WEEK. WE WILL            
FOLLOW THE OPERATIONAL GFS SOLUTION AS IT IS IN BETWEEN THESE                   
VARYING SOLUTIONS...BUT FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS LOW WHEN IT COMES TO             
DETAILS BEYOND TUESDAY. ALL OF THE GUIDANCE INDICATE THAT THIS NEXT             
FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BE FAIRLY ENERGETIC (REGARDLESS OF THE EXACT                
TIMING AND TRACK)...WHICH  MEANS THERE MAY BE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR               
SEVERE WEATHER ANYWHERE FROM TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING.            
HOPEFULLY WE WILL BE ABLE TO PROVIDE MORE DETAIL WHEN (IF) THE MODEL            
SOLUTIONS CONVERGE.                                                             
&&                                                                              
.MARINE...                                                                      
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST WATERS             
INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT EXPECT A WIND                
SHIFT TO THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST. EXPECTING WINDS IN THE CAUTIONARY             
LEVEL BEHIND THE FRONT WITH A FEW GUSTS UP OVER 20 KNOTS. OFFSHORE              
SEAS WILL ALSO BUILD UP TO AROUND 5 FEET...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE                
WESTERN LEGS. FRONT WASHES OUT TO OUR SOUTH TONIGHT WITH WINDS AND              
SEAS DROPPING BELOW CAUTIONARY LEVELS INTO SATURDAY. THE NEXT COLD              
FRONT WILL RAPIDLY PUSH ACROSS THE WATERS LATER SATURDAY AND                    
SATURDAY NIGHT WITH A PERIOD OF CAUTIONARY TO ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS              
AND SEAS. THESE ELEVATED WINDS AND SEAS LINGER INTO SUNDAY BEFORE               
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO OUR NORTH INTO THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK.             
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
THE 00 UTC GFS MOS APPEAR TO BE UNDER-ESTIMATING THE AMOUNT OF LOW              
CLOUD COVER OVER OUR REGION. THE BACK EDGE OF THIS MVFR-IFR CLOUD               
DECK EXTENDS FROM KFFC GA TO KCWF LA...AND WAS MAKING SLOW PROGRESS             
SOUTHEASTWARD. WE OPTED TO USE THE FORECAST RUC AND NAM SOUNDINGS               
FOR OUR CLOUD FORECAST AS THAT GUIDANCE HAS INITIALIZED REASONABLY              
WELL SO FAR...AND MOS SOMETIMES HAS A TENDENCY TO CLEAR LOW CLOUDS              
OUT TOO QUICKLY IN THESE SITUATIONS. MVFR-IFR CIGS ARE LIKELY AT ALL            
TAF SITES OVERNIGHT...WITH GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT TO VFR CIGS FROM                 
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST DURING THE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS.            
LIGHT DRIZZLE AND/OR LIGHT RAIN WILL AFFECT KTLH...KPFN...AND KVLD              
DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS...WITH VIS OCCASIONALLY            
REDUCED TO MVFR.                                                                
&&                                                                              
.FIRE WEATHER...                                                                
DRIER AIR WILL FILTER INTO WESTERN SECTIONS OF OUR FL PANHANDLE AND             
SOUTHEAST AL ZONES SATURDAY AFTERNOON...BUT WE DO NOT EXCPECT TO GET            
THE WIND OR DURATION OF LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY TO WARRANT A FIRE                 
WEATHER WATCH. RED FLAG CONDITIONS APPEAR POSSIBLE SUNDAY AFTERNOON             
FOR PORTIONS OF THE AREA...AND A FIRE WEATHER WATCH MAY BE ISSUED               
TODAY OR TONIGHT.                                                               
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
TALLAHASSEE  61  42  64  36  61 /  50  10  10   0   0                           
PANAMA CITY  60  43  63  41  61 /  30  10  10   0   0                           
DOTHAN       57  37  61  35  58 /  10   0   0   0   0                           
ALBANY       59  37  61  33  59 /  20  10   0   0   0                           
VALDOSTA     61  44  64  38  60 /  30  20  10   0   0                           
CROSS CITY   70  48  68  40  64 /  30  40  10  10   0                           
&&                                                                              
.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
AL...NONE.                                                                      
GA...NONE.                                                                      
FL...NONE.                                                                      
GM...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM/MARINE...MROCZKA                                            
AVIATION/FIRE WEATHER/LONG TERM...FOURNIER                                      
</pre> fl                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC                                          
1245 PM EST SAT DEC 6 2008                                                      
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE UP THE COAST TODAY THEN A                      
REINFORCING COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. DRY HIGH                  
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY. A COASTAL TROUGH                  
WILL DEVELOP MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...THEN A COMPLEX STORM                    
SYSTEM WILL AFFECT THE SOUTHEAST REGION DURING THE LATTER HALF OF               
THE WEEK.                                                                       
&&                                                                              
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...                                         
THERE HAS DEFINITELY BEEN A PRONOUNCED WESTWARD SHIFT IN MOST                   
MODELS WITH THE UPPER SHORTWAVE AND SURFACE TROUGH EXPECTED TO MOVE             
THROUGH THE COASTAL WATERS LATE THIS AFTERNOON. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE              
HAS ALREADY BEGUN TO POOL AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE NOW LOCATED ALONG              
THE GULF COAST STATES WITH SFC DEWPOINTS INCREASING INTO THE MID                
40S ALONG THE COAST. LIGHT RAIN WILL LIKELY BEGIN TO DEVELOP BY                 
EARLY AFTERNOON ACROSS SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND THE COASTAL WATERS.                
CONFIDENCE QUICKLY DECREASES WHEN ASSESSING POTENTIAL FOR RAIN                  
ACROSS SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA. IF ANY RAIN OCCURS...IT WILL                   
LIKELY BE AFTER 3 PM AND ACROSS COASTAL COUNTIES. THE 4 KM WRF                  
SHOWS A FEW HOURS OF LIGHT RAIN LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THE                 
EVENING IN COASTAL SC ALTHOUGH THE 12Z NAM-12 KEEPS ALL RAIN JUST               
OFFSHORE. THE GFS BRINGS RAIN TO COASTAL LAND AREAS...AS WELL AS                
THE 00Z ECMWF...ALTHOUGH THE RUC-13 IS DRIER. BASED ON THE CURRENT              
POSITION OF THE SHORTWAVE AND A BAROCLINIC LEAF APPEARING OFF THE               
GA COAST ON VIS SATELLITE...A FEW HOURS OF SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN                 
SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS ABOUT TWO TIERS OF GA COASTAL                   
COUNTIES AND MAYBE ONE LAYER OF COUNTIES ALONG THE SC COAST.                    
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SUNDAY/...                          
THE LAST OF THE MAINLY LIGHT STRATIFORM RNFL WILL EXIT THE                      
CENTRAL SOUTH CAROLINA COAST PRIOR TO MIDNIGHT WITH SKIES                       
CLEARING AND WINDS STIRRING FROM THE NW TO W WITH THE ARRIVAL OF A              
MODIFIED CONTINENTAL POLAR AIR AIR MASS. SKIES WILL CLEAR ALL                   
AREAS BEFORE DAWN ON SUNDAY AS THE UPPER TROF AXIS PASSES. WE HAVE              
CONTINUED TO FAVOR THE COOLER GFS MOS LOW TEMPERATURE SCHEME WHICH              
FITS IN REAL NICE WITH OUR FORECAST PERSISTENCE.                                
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...                                           
MUCH UNCERTAINTY CONTINUES TO PLAGUE THE EXTENDED PERIODS THIS                  
MORNING...BUT OVERALL THE MODELS AGREE THAT A FAIRLY UNSETTLED                  
PERIOD CAN BE EXPECTED FROM MID TO LATE WEEK.                                   
GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD NORTH OF            
THE REGION SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...AND WILL KEEP THE FORECAST RAIN              
FREE. THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO SLIDE EASTWARD                  
AND INTO THE ATLANTIC MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. AS HIGH               
PRESSURE SHIFTS OFFSHORE...A COASTAL TROUGH WILL DEVELOP OFF THE                
SOUTH CAROLINA AND GEORGIA COAST MONDAY NIGHT AS SUGGESTED BY MOST              
OPERATIONAL GUIDANCE...WITH THE TROUGH SHIFTING NORTH OF THE AREA BY            
LATE IN THE DAY TUESDAY. WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY SLIGHT CHANCE/CHANCE            
POPS MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY FOR PRIMARILY COASTAL ZONES...WITH A              
BIT FURTHER WESTWARD EXTENT INTO INTERIOR SOUTH CAROLINA ZONES GIVEN            
SOUTH-SOUTHEASTERLY LOW LEVEL STEERING FLOW OFF THE ATLANTIC.                   
MAIN FORECAST CONCERN IN THE EXTENDED PERIODS REVOLVES AROUND THE               
HANDLING OF THE MID TO LATE WEEK STORM SYSTEM EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE            
FORECAST AREA. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE REMAINED FAIRLY                      
CONSISTENT FROM ONE RUN TO THE NEXT. IT DOES APPEAR HOWEVER THAT                
THEY ARE BOTH BEGINNING TO CONVERGE ON A COMMON SOLUTION...BUT THIS             
WILL LIKELY TAKE SEVERAL MORE RUNS BEFORE A COMMON SOLUTION BECOMES             
CLEARLY APPARENT. THE GFS PUSHES A FRONT THROUGH THE AREA                       
WEDNESDAY...THEN DEVELOPS A WAVE ALONG THE FRONT WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND            
LIFTS IT NORTHEASTWARD OFF THE SOUTH CAROLINA AND GEORGIA COAST ON              
THURSDAY. THE ECMWF ON THE OTHER HAND PUSHES A COLD FRONT THROUGH               
THE AREA ON THURSDAY...THEN LIFTS THE FRONT BACK NORTHWARD LATE                 
THURSDAY NIGHT AS A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES NORTHWARD OUT OF THE             
GULF OF MEXICO AND ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA ON FRIDAY. THE CANADIAN             
IS MORE SIMILAR TO THE GFS AND THE UKMET MORE SIMILAR TO THE ECMWF.             
GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS CONTINUE TO FAVOR A FASTER AND MORE PROGRESSIVE            
SOLUTION...WHICH AIDS IN FORECAST UNCERTAINTY CONSIDERING MOST OF               
THE OPERATIONAL GUIDANCE IS SLOWING THE SYSTEMS PROGRESSION DOWN.               
EXPECT THAT THE MOST PROBABLE SOLUTION LIES SOMEWHERE IN BETWEEN                
THE GFS AND ECMWF SOLUTIONS SO WILL TRY TO INCORPORATE IDEAS FROM               
EACH WITH THE MORNING PACKAGE TO REDUCE POTENTIAL FORECASTS BUSTS IN            
THE LATTER PERIODS AS THEY COULD BE QUITE LARGE. TO MAKE A LONG                 
STORY SHORT...IT LOOKS LIKE A FAIRLY UNSETTLED PERIOD WEDNESDAY                 
THROUGH FRIDAY...AND WILL CARRY CHANCE POPS THROUGHOUT.                         
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...                                    
LOW CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND SPREAD NE THROUGH THE AREA              
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE. SOME              
WARM ISENTROPIC ASCENT MAY PRODUCE PATCHY AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN                   
ALONG COASTAL SECTIONS AS A SURFACE WAVE DEVELOPS ALONG A STALLED               
FRONT JUST OFF THE COAST. DO NOT EXPECT PROLONGED RAIN EVENT THUS               
CONFINED RAIN TO TEMPO GROUP AT BOTH TAF SITES. MVFR CEILINGS                   
WILL BE THE PRIMARY ISSUE THROUGH THIS EVENING UNTIL A REINFORCING              
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH AND MUCH DRIER AIR FILTERS IN.                         
GUSTY WINDS POSSIBLE ON SUNDAY DUE TO A DEEP MIXED LAYER AND 25-30              
KT WINDS JUST OFF THE SURFACE.                                                  
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY                  
THROUGH MONDAY. MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE AT THE                    
TERMINALS MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY AS A COMPLEX STORM SYSTEM               
IMPACTS THE AREA.                                                               
&&                                                                              
.MARINE...                                                                      
A FAIRLY WEAK PRES PATTERN WILL KEEP RELATIVELY TRANQUIL MARINE                 
CONDITIONS GOING FOR MOST OF TODAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH              
THE WATERS LATE THIS AFTERNOON...FOLLOWED BY A COOLER AND DRIER                 
AIR AIR MASS PUNCHING IN TONIGHT. INCREASING W FLOW SHOULD JET                  
OFF THE COAST AND WE HAVE ISSUED A SECOND PERIOD SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY           
FOR OUR 20-60 NM GEORGIA WATERS. AS USUAL...WE WILL NEED TO WATCH               
CONDITIONS AT GRAYS REEF FOR A PERIOD OF WINDS TOUCHING ADVISORY                
CRITERIA. OFFSHORE FLOW TONIGHT WILL BUILD SEAS TO 2-4 FT WITHING               
20 NM...BUT HIGHER 4-6 FT SEAS ARE LIKELY AFTER MIDNIGHT BEYOND 30              
NM E OF THE GEORGIA COAST.                                                      
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD NORTH OF THE REGION SUNDAY THROUGH                     
MONDAY...THEN SHIFT OFFSHORE AND INTO THE ATLANTIC TUESDAY AND                  
TUESDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST ON                      
WEDNESDAY.                                                                      
SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE OUTER                
GEORGIA WATERS SUNDAY MORNING. OTHERWISE WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED            
TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT THRESHOLDS SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY. THE               
COMBINATION OF PERSISTENT EASTERLY FLOW AND BUILDING SWELL MAY                  
RESULT IN A NEED FOR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE              
WATERS ONCE AGAIN MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY.                               
&&                                                                              
.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
GA...NONE.                                                                      
SC...NONE.                                                                      
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 12 PM EST               
     SUNDAY FOR AMZ374.                                                         
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
JRL                                                                             
</pre> ga                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL                                  
607 AM CST FRI DEC 5 2008                                                       
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
402 AM CST                                                                      
SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING EAST OF THE AREA THIS MORNING...THOUGH                 
ANOTHER WEAK SHORT WAVE DROPPING ACROSS THE NORTHERN LAKES AND UPPER            
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THIS MORNING. WEAK LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION IN               
ADVANCE OF THIS FEATURE RESULTING IN SOME CLOUD COVER ACROSS                    
MINNESOTA...IOWA AND WESTERN WISCONSIN EARLY THIS MORNING...AND                 
WITH SOMEWHAT NEUTRAL VERTICAL MOTION FIELD DEPICTED BY BOTH WRF                
AND GFS UVM TIME/HEIGHT SECTIONS SUSPECT SOME OF THIS CLOUD COVER               
WILL WORK ITS WAY INTO NORTHERN IL LATE THIS MORNING. MID/HIGH                  
LEVEL CLOUDS TO INCREASE LATER TODAY ANYWAY AS NEXT UPSTREAM SHORT              
WAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER NORTHERN SASKATCHEWAN DIGS SOUTHEAST                 
INTO MINNESOTA AND TRANSLATES ACROSS FORECAST AREA TONIGHT INTO                 
SATURDAY MORNING.                                                               
WINDS BACK SOUTH/SOUTHWEST BY EVENING IN ADVANCE OF THIS CLIPPER...             
WITH DEEP LAYERED VERTICAL MOTION INCREASING TONIGHT. LOOKING                   
ISENTROPICALLY...APPEARS 285 KELVIN SURFACE INTERSECTS STRONGER                 
UVM AND DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE AROUND -15 C LATE TONIGHT WITH                    
AVERAGE MIXING RATIO DURING THE 09-15Z PERIOD AROUND 2 G/KG. THUS               
MAX SNOW AMOUNTS AROUND 2 INCHES SEEM REASONABLE. SIMILAR QPF                   
AMOUNTS FROM 00Z WRF/GFS...AND WITH ABOUT A 15:1 SNOW/LIQUID RATIO              
ALSO SUPPORT GENERALLY A 1-2 INCH OR 1-3 INCH TOTAL SNOWFALL BY                 
THE TIME SHORT WAVE TROUGH AXIS MOVES THROUGH DURING SATURDAY                   
MORNING. SECOND VORT NOTED DROPPING ACROSS NORTHERN LAKES AND                   
WISCONSIN IN WAKE OF THE FIRST MIDDAY SATURDAY...WHICH MAY                      
MAINTAIN SOME VERY WEAK FORCING ACROSS THE AREA INTO THE AFTERNOON              
HOURS. GIVEN DRYING OF MID/UPPER LEVELS NOTED IN TIME SECTIONS...               
SHALLOW NATURE OF MOISTURE AND WEAK UVM WOULD INDICATE MAINLY JUST              
SOME LINGERING FLURRIES OR LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS BEYOND THE MORNING                
HOURS WITH LITTLE IF ANY ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION. COLD FRONT                    
PUSHES ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL IL DURING THE MORNING AND THROUGH THE               
CHICAGO AREA AROUND MIDDAY...WITH GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS PROVIDING               
STRONG LOW LEVEL COLD ADVECTION WITH FALLING TEMPS LIKELY IN THE                
AFTERNOON.                                                                      
UPPER TROUGH MOVES EAST SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH DEEP SUBSIDENCE                   
DEVELOPING AND SURFACE RIDGE APPROACHING THE MISSISSIPPI BY SUNDAY              
MORNING. SNOW COVER...LOW LEVEL ARCTIC AIR AND POTENTIAL FOR                    
PARTIAL CLEARING TO SEND TEMPS INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS SATURDAY                  
NIGHT. HAVE UNDERCUT COOLEST GUIDANCE A BIT ESPECIALLY NORTH                    
CENTRAL IL WHERE RADIATIVE COOLING CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO BE MOST               
FAVORABLE. SURFACE RIDGE THEN MOVES ACROSS AREA SUNDAY MORNING                  
WITH SUNSHINE EXPECTED DURING THE MORNING. YET ANOTHER IN THIS                  
RAPID FIRE SERIES OF SHORT WAVES RIPPLES SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE                   
MIDWEST SUNDAY AFTERNOON HOWEVER...WITH BACKING LOW LEVEL FLOW                  
AND RESULTING WARM ADVECTION TO INCREASE MID/HIGH CLOUDS RATHER                 
QUICKLY. THIS WAVE CONTINUES TO DIG SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA                   
SUNDAY NIGHT BRINGING THE POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER MEASURABLE SNOW.                
WHILE THIS SHORT WAVE DIGS ACROSS MIDWEST...LONG WAVE TROUGH                    
AMPLIFIES ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND HIGH PLAINS TO OUR WEST. SURFACE               
LOW DEVELOPS ACROSS TX PANHANDLE REGION WITH INVERTED TROUGH                    
EXTENDING NORTHEAST INTO THE MIDWEST ALONG LOW LEVEL BAROCLINIC                 
ZONE ALONG SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF ARCTIC AIR. POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT                
PRECIPITATION LINGERS MONDAY INTO TUESDAY IN VICINITY OF THERMAL                
GRADIENT AS SERIES OF WEAK NORTHERN STREAM WAVES PASS THROUGH                   
LARGER SCALE TROUGH AXIS WHICH BECOMES QUITE SHEARED AS JET DIGS                
ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS. SOME QUESTION AS TO PRECIP TYPE PROVIDED              
PRECIP DOES OCCUR ESPECIALLY IN MONDAY/MONDAY PERIOD AS SOUTH                   
WINDS AHEAD OF SHEARED TROUGH AND RESULTING LOW LEVEL WARM                      
ADVECTION RESULT IN THERMAL PROFILES WHICH BECOME MARGINAL FOR                  
SNOW ACROSS SOUTHERN HALF OF CWA. GEM AND ECMWF PARTICULARLY MILD               
AND PUSH 1540 METER 850-700 THICKNESS CONTOUR UP TO AROUND I-88                 
MONDAY AFTERNOON. GFS REMAINS COOLER AND FORECASTS SNOW AS                      
PREDOMINANT PRECIP TYPE EVEN IN SOUTHERN COUNTIES. FOR NOW WILL                 
MAINTAIN CURRENT FORECAST GFS SLANT WITH CHANCE SNOW...THOUGH WILL              
HAVE TO MONITOR MODEL TRENDS NEXT FEW RUNS FOR BETTER HANDLE ON                 
THERMAL PROFILES EARLY NEXT WEEK.                                               
RATZER                                                                          
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
605 AM CST                                                                      
1200 UTC TAFS...INCREASING SNOW POTENTIAL LATE TONIGHT AND BRISK                
WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN AVIATION FORECAST CONCERNS OVER THE NEXT 24              
TO 36 HOURS. A BROAD RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED ACROSS                     
MISSOURI WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY SLIDE EASTWARD TODAY AS NEXT                   
UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH ACROSS SOUTHWEST CANADA DIGS INTO                 
THE NORTHERN PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON. IN THE NEAR TERM...SOME HIGH                
END MVFR AND VFR CIGS BETWEEN 3-4K FT ACROSS EASTERN IOWA NOT                   
HANDLED WELL IN NUMERICAL GUIDANCE WILL LIKELY MOVE ACROSS                      
TERMINALS THIS MORNING AND BASED ON SFC OBS AND RUC SOUNDINGS                   
WOULD EXPECTED GENERALLY VFR CIGS AROUND 3500 FT WITH THIS                      
STRATOCU TO AFFECT RFD BY 13Z AND REMAINDER OF TERMINALS IN THE                 
15Z-16Z TIME FRAME. WEST WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS THIS MORNING SHOULD              
BECOME WEST SOUTHWEST BY MID MORNING WITH SOME GUSTS TO 15 TO 20                
KNOTS DEVELOPING. WINDS SHOULD CONTINUE TO BACK THIS AFTERNOON AS               
THE SFC TROUGH MOVES INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. AN AREA OF FAIRLY                
STRONG PRESSURE FALLS IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN                       
ILLINOIS/SOUTHERN WISCONSIN LATE THIS EVENING AND EXPECTING A                   
PERIOD OF HEIGHTENED GUSTS AS THIS OCCURS...ESPECIALLY AFTER 03Z                
WHEN SOME GUSTS TO AT LEAST 25 KNOTS WILL BE POSSIBLE. HAVE NOT                 
MADE SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO TIMING OF SNOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE                  
SOUTHWEST CANADA TROUGH...AFFECTING RFD TOWARD 05Z AND REMAINDER                
OF TERMINALS BY 06Z OR 07Z. DURING PERIOD OF STEADIEST SNOW AFTER               
MIDNIGHT...WILL CONTINUE WITH IFR VSBYS AND LOW MVFR CIGS AROUND                
1000 FT. CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN TO IMPROVE SATURDAY MORNING AS SFC               
FRONT PASSES THROUGH TAKING WINDS NORTHWEST...ALTHOUGH CONTINUED                
LIGHT SNOW IS EXPECTED THROUGH MID MORNING AS A SECONDARY SHORT                 
WAVE DIGS INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES.                                         
MARSILI                                                                         
&&                                                                              
.MARINE...                                                                      
310 AM CST                                                                      
THE PARADE OF WEATHER SYSTEMS WILL CONTINUE TO BRING STRONG WINDS TO            
LAKE MICHIGAN AT LEAST THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY. A BROAD SURFACE HIGH               
FROM THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE MID MS RIVER VALLEY WILL              
CONTINUE TO SUPPORT A WESTERLY SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT WITH WINDS OF              
15 TO 25 KNOTS THIS MORNING. STRONG SURFACE PRESSURE FALLS WILL                 
DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AS AN AREA OF                 
LOW PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS NORTHERN MINNESOTA THIS EVENING. THE                  
PRESSURE FALLS WILL STRENGTHEN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS LAKE                
MICHIGAN...AND EXPECTING SOUTHWEST GALES TO 35 KNOTS TO DEVELOP                 
EARLY THIS EVENING ACROSS MOST OF LAKE MICHIGAN. AT THIS TIME WILL              
CONTINUE THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THE NEARSHORE                             
WATERS...ALTHOUGH DUE TO THE STRENGTH OF THESE PRESSURE FALLS                   
MOVING ACROSS THE REGION...SOME SOUTHWEST GALE GUSTS CANNOT BE                  
RULED OUT EVEN FOR THE NEARSHORE WATERS TONIGHT. THE COLD FRONT                 
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL TRACK ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN                     
SATURDAY MORNING BRINGING A POTENTIAL OF NORTHWEST GALES LATE                   
SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...ESPECIALLY GIVEN SFC                  
LOW WILL BE DEEPENING EAST OF LAKE MICHIGAN DURING THIS PERIOD. IN              
TERMS OF HEADLINES...HAVE UPGRADED THE OPEN WATERS GALE WATCH TO A              
GALE WARNING WHICH WILL BE IN EFFECT FROM EARLY THIS EVENING                    
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. AS MENTIONED...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR                 
THE NEARSHORE WATERS WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT TONIGHT AND INTO                     
SATURDAY MORNING...AND HAVE ISSUED GALE WATCH FOR THE NEARSHORE                 
WATERS FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY EVENING FOR THE                     
POTENTIAL OF NORTHWEST GALES. HAZARDOUS WAVES FOR SMALL CRAFT WILL              
THEN PERSIST INTO SUNDAY. WINDS AND WAVES WILL DIMINISH MORE                    
SUBSTANTIALLY LATER SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND INTO SUNDAY EVENING AS                 
A SFC RIDGE AXIS APPROACHES THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES.                            
MARSILI                                                                         
&&                                                                              
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
IL...NONE.                                                                      
IN...NONE.                                                                      
LM...GALE WARNING...LMZ080-LMZ261-LMZ362-LMZ364-LMZ366-LMZ563-LMZ565-           
     LMZ567-LMZ669-LMZ671-LMZ673-LMZ675-LMZ777-LMZ779-LMZ868-                   
     LMZ870-LMZ872-LMZ874-LMZ876-LMZ878...6 PM FRIDAY TO 3 AM                   
     SUNDAY.                                                                    
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...NEARSHORE WATERS                                    
     UNTIL NOON SATURDAY.                                                       
     GALE WATCH...LMZ740-LMZ741-LMZ742-LMZ743-LMZ744-LMZ745...NOON              
     SATURDAY TO MIDNIGHT SUNDAY.                                               
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</pre> il                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA                                       
616 PM EST SAT DEC 6 2008                                                       
.AVIATION/UPDATE...                                                             
SFC CDFNT IN ASSOCN/W SW TROUGH CLIPPING THROUGH CNTRL LWR MI ATTM              
ABT TO CLR NW OH. STG CAA IN WAKE OF SFC BNDRY W/RAPID VEERING OF               
FLW ACRS LK MI AND RAMPING SNOW STREAMERS DVLPG IN ITS WAKE.                    
UPSTREAM TEMPS CRASHING W/SINGLE DIGITS NOTED OVR MOST OF MN.                   
INITIAL LL FLW TRAJECTORY AT 320 DEGREES BUT VEERS FURTHER UPSTREAM             
TO 300 AND SIMILAR TO 21Z RUC/12Z 4KM ARW PROGS. WHILE THIS SUGGESTS            
GOING WSW HIGHLIGHTS ON THE MARK...IT ALSO RAISES SOME FLAGS FURTHER            
INLAND ESP IN LIGHT OF STG LL MEAN FLW AND INLAND CREEP XPCD                    
W/INTENSE MULTIPLE SNOW BANDS. HIRES ARW OUTPUT CONFIRMED BY 21Z                
RUC MAKE A CASE FOR E/SE EXPANSION OF ADVISORY OVERNIGHT AND                    
POTENTIAL UPGRADE TO WARNING FOR ST JOE MI/ELKHART. HWVR GIVEN                  
DIMINISHING RESIDUAL CYCLONIC MSTR AND DECREASING INVERSION HGTS LT             
TONIGHT...DURATION OF HEAVIER SNOW LIMITED. WILL CONT TO MONITOR                
UPSTREAM DVLPMNTS THROUGH 7PM GIVEN EXISTING ADVISORY TIL THEN.                 
GENERALLY MVFR CONDS THROUGH THE PD XCP AT KSBN WHERE IFR                       
RESTRICTIONS TO VSBY/CIG WILL CONT OVERNIGHT BFR IMPRVG SOMEWHAT AFT            
DAYBREAK SUN.                                                                   
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM...                                                                  
LOW OVER NRN MI WITH CDFNT EXTENDING SW ACROSS NRN INDIANA THIS                 
AFTN. MID LEVEL DRY SLOT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WAS ALSO                   
PUSHING EAST ACROSS THE CWA THIS AFTN. CONTINUING TO GET SOME                   
REPORTS OF FREEZING DRIZZLE IN THE DRY SLOT AND NORTHEAST OF THERE              
SNOWFALL WAS IN THE 1-3" RANGE WITH GUSTY WINDS AND SNOW SHOWERS                
ALONG THE COLD FRONT CAUSING SOME SGFNT WINTER WX HAZARDS SO                    
EXTENDED ADVISORY ISSUED THIS MORNING TIL 7PM. MULT BAND LAKE                   
EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS DVLPG OVER NW PORTION OF CWA ATTM. SHRTWV SEEN              
ON WATER VAPOR MOVG SE ACROSS NRN LM/NE WI THIS AFTN WILL MOVE SE               
ACRS THE CWA THIS EVE...LIKELY ENHANCING THE SNOW SHOWER                        
ACTIVITY. 925MB OMEGA FCSTS SUGGEST BEST POTENTIAL FOR DOMINANT                 
BAND OVERNIGHT WILL BE ACROSS BERRIEN/CASS SEWD THROUGH                         
ELKHART/ST. JOE INDIANA. INVERSION FCST TO LOWER TO UNDER 5KFT                  
LATE TONIGHT. WOULD EXPECT THIS TO DIMINISH INTENSITY OF SNOW                   
SHOWERS CONSIDERABLY BY MORNING... HWVR AS GRADIENT WINDS DECREASE              
OVERNIGHT... THERE WILL BE A TENDENCY FOR LAND BREEZE COMPONENT TO              
WIND TO DVLP ENHANCING CONVERGENCE ALONG ERN SHORE...LIKELY                     
CAUSING OR SUSTAINING A DOMINANT BAND IN THAT AREA THROUGH SUNDAY               
MORNING. NAM12 SHOWING WK SFC TROF MOVG SSE DOWN THE LAKE LATE                  
TONIGHT... LIKELY AS A RESULT OF THIS LAND/LAKE WIND/CONVERGENCE                
INTERACTION. GOING FCST OF UP TO 6" OVERNIGHT IN ERN BERRIEN/CASS               
WITH LESSER AMOUNTS TO THE SE SEEMS REASONABLE AND NO CHANGES TO                
AMOUNTS/HEADLINES MADE ATTM. ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL IN THE                         
WARNING/ADVISORY AREA AROUND AN INCH EXPECTED SUNDAY BEFORE SNOW                
SHOWERS TAPER END. LITTLE CHANGE MADE TO HIGHS FOR SUNDAY WHICH ARE             
AOB ALL 12Z MOS...BUT SEEM REASONABLE IF NOT A TOUCH TOO WARM BASED             
ON FCST -15C H85 TEMPS AND RECENT MOS WARM BIAS IN SIMILAR SITUATION            
ON FRI.                                                                         
SHRTWV TOPPING RIDGE OVER PAC NW THIS AFTN IS EXPECTED TO DROP SE               
INTO BACKSIDE OF LONGWAVE TROF OVER ERN US. THIS SYSTEM EXPECTED                
TO APPROACH OUR AREA SUNDAY NIGHT COINCIDING WITH WAA ON BACKSIDE               
OF SFC RIDGE RESULTING IN DECENT MID LEVEL ISENT LIFT WITH 2G/KG                
MIXING RATIO ON 290K ISENT SFC AROUND 700MB. LOW LEVELS REMAIN                  
RATHER DRY THROUGH THIS PD SO STILL SOME DOUBT IF THIS WAA SNOW                 
WILL FALL THIS FAR SOUTH...BUT DID BUMP UP POPS OVER ALL BUT SRN                
PORTION OF THE CWA. ALTHOUGH SKIES SHOULD BE MOSTLY CLOUDY SUNDAY               
NIGHT... LIGHT WINDS IN THE EVE WITH FRESH SNOW COVER AND RATHER                
DRY LOW LEVELS...ALONG WITH PRECEEDING COOLER DAY THAN FCST BY                  
MOS...ALL SUGGEST GOING LOWS IN TEENS AND BLO ALL 12Z MOS                       
GUIDANCE ARE REASONABLE AND NO CHANGES MADE.                                    
&&                                                                              
LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...                                        
EXTENDED PERIOD CONTINUES WITH AN ACTIVE BEGINNING AS MONDAY SEES               
WEAKENING CLIPPER WASH OUT AS IT APPROACHES THE AREA WITH ASSOCIATED            
AREA OF MOISTURE HEADING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES.  UPR LOW OVER                 
SOUTHWEST OPENS AND PHASES WITH DEEPENING TROUGH OVER MOUNTAIN WEST             
AND SHIFTS EAST WITH SFC LOW EJECTING THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY.                  
WHILE DIFFERENCES EXITS IN SPEED AND INTENSITY OF THE LOW THE                   
OPERATIONAL MODELS ARE TRENDING TOWARDS A BETTER CONSENSUS ON A                 
WARMER SOLUTION WITH SFC LOW TRACKING ACROSS INDIANA.  FOLLOWED A               
GFS/ECMWF BLEND FOR THIS SYSTEM WHILE NOTING THAT THE ENTIRE SUITE              
OF GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS IS SUBSTANTIALLY FURTHER SE WITH THIS SYSTEM            
PUTTING CWA IN A DECIDEDLY COLDER ENVIRONMENT.                                  
BASED ON A COMPROMISE BETWEEN OP GFS/ECMWF...THICKNESS FIELDS AND               
THERMAL PROFILES SUGGEST SNOW MONDAY NIGHT IN AN AREA OF                        
WAA/ISENTROPIC LIFT INDICATED BY BRISK 40 KT FLOW ALONG MOIST 295K              
SFC. PROFILES DO NOT CURRENTLY SUGGEST A SUBSTANTIAL WINDOW FOR                 
FREEZING RAIN BUT WILL NEED TO MONITOR WITH TIME AS SCENARIO OF                 
WAA ALOFT OVER TRAPPED COLD AIR BELOW COULD YET PRODUCE A PERIOD                
WITH FZRA HAZARD. AS LOW DEEPENS AND MOVES NE ALONG BAROCLINIC                  
ZONE COLUMN WARMS THROUGHOUT AND THERE IS CONSIDERABLE OPERATIONAL              
MODEL EVIDENCE TO SUGGEST CHANGING GRIDS OVER TO AN ALL RAIN                    
TUESDAY. MODEL GUIDANCE NOW REACHING NEAR/ABV 40 FOR TUESDAY HIGHS              
AND BUFR SOUNDINGS SHOWING ABV FZ PROFILE THROUGH A SIGNIFICANT                 
LAYER BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. ALSO..GFS/EC NOW IN BASIC AGREEMENT                 
WITH PTYPE SCENARIO...AND THE OP GFS HAS NUDGED FURTHER                         
NORTH/WARMER WITH 3 SUCCESSIVE RUNS. HOWEVER..THE FACT THAT IT IS               
AN OUTLIER AMONG ITS OWN ENSEMBLE MEMBERS WARRANTS HOLDING ON TO                
CHC SNOW MENTION TUESDAY ALONG WITH LIKELY RAIN FOR THE TIME                    
BEING. ECMWF IS FASTER/SHALLOWER WITH SFC LOW BUT HAS TRENDED                   
TOWARDS GFS WITH 12Z RUN AND CURRENT WINDOW OF LIKELY POPS IS                   
SLANTED TOWARDS SLOWER/DEEPER GFS.                                              
BEHIND SYSTEM COLDER AIR ONCE AGAIN FILTERS INTO THE CWA CHANGING               
EVERYONE BACK OVER TO A PD OF SNOW SHOWERS AS SFC LOW DEPARTS AND               
RETURNING TEMPS BACK BELOW NORMAL BY THE END OF THE WEEK. COLD H85              
TEMPS AND NW FLOW ONCE AGAIN SIGNAL A CHANCE OF LAKE EFFECT AND HAVE            
CONSERVATIVELY ADDED CHC POPS IN BERRIEN COUNTY.  MODELS THEN BRING             
IN ANOTHER WAVE AT THE END OF THE EXTENDED WITH SIGNIFICANT TIMING              
DIFFERENCES AND LARGE CONTRASTS IN DEPICTION OF UPPER LEVEL FLOW                
OVER NOAM. HAVE LEFT DAY 7 DRY FOR NOW TO LET THINGS SORT OUT                   
WITH ANOTHER MODEL CYCLE.                                                       
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1233 PM EST SAT DEC 6 2008/                         
AVIATION...                                                                     
SYNOPTIC SCALE SNOW WITH ACCOMPANYING IFR VSBYS WILL BE MOVG OUT                
OF NRN INDIANA EARLY THIS AFTN AS CDFNT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA.                 
WINDS WILL SHIFT TO NW BEHIND THE FRONT CAUSING LAKE EFFECT SNOW                
SHOWERS TO SPREAD INTO NRN INDIANA BY THIS EVE AND CONTINUING                   
THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. EXPECTING PREDOMINANTLY IFR CONDITIONS AT               
SBN DURING THE LAKE EFFECT EPISODE AND MVFR AT FWA.                             
&&                                                                              
.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
IN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EST /4 PM CST/ THIS                     
AFTERNOON      FOR INZ003-006>009-012>018-020-022>027-032>034.                  
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST SUNDAY FOR INZ004-005.              
MI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR                  
MIZ080-     081.                                                                
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST SUNDAY FOR MIZ079.                  
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST SUNDAY FOR MIZ077-078.                 
OH...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR                  
OHZ001-     002-004-005-015-016-024-025.                                        
LM...GALE WARNING UNTIL 3 AM EST SUNDAY FOR LMZ043-046.                         
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHORT TERM...TAYLOR                                                             
LONG TERM...LUDINGTON                                                           
AVIATION...HOLSTEN                                                              
UPDATE...HOLSTEN                                                                
</pre> in                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA                                       
1233 PM EST SAT DEC 6 2008                                                      
.AVIATION...                                                                    
SYNOPTIC SCALE SNOW WITH ACCOMPANYING IFR VSBYS WILL BE MOVG OUT                
OF NRN INDIANA EARLY THIS AFTN AS CDFNT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA.                 
WINDS WILL SHIFT TO NW BEHIND THE FRONT CAUSING LAKE EFFECT SNOW                
SHOWERS TO SPREAD INTO NRN INDIANA BY THIS EVE AND CONTINUING                   
THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. EXPECTING PREDOMINANTLY IFR CONDITIONS AT               
SBN DURING THE LAKE EFFECT EPISODE AND MVFR AT FWA.                             
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 932 AM EST SAT DEC 6 2008/                          
UPDATE...                                                                       
AREA OF SNOW MOVG ACROSS CWA ATTM. SNOW FALLING IN WAA REGIME                   
AHEAD OF LOW MOVG SE ACROSS NRN LM. WRN EDGE OF AREA OF PRECIP                  
JUST AHEAD OF THE SYSTEMS COLD FRONT... LOOSES MID LEVEL MOISTURE               
RESULTING IN SOME FREEZING DRIZZLE...HAVE ADDED MENTION OF PATCHY               
FREEZING DRIZZLE TO SE 2/3 OF CWA AS FRONT MOVES THROUGH TODAY.                 
UPSTREAM TEMPS AND CONTD WAA AHEAD OF FRONT SUGGEST GOING HIGHS                 
FOR TODAY ARE A BIT ON THE COLD SIDE AND GENERALLY RAISED ABOUT                 
3F. OTRWS NO SGFNT CHANGES MADE ATTM.                                           
&&                                                                              
SHORT TERM...                                                                   
.WINTER WEATHER TO IMPACT THE REGION TODAY AND TONIGHT...                       
TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT                                                      
RATHER POTENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SFC CYCLONE IS PUSHING            
INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. AN AREA ON LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW IS               
ONGOING OVER PORTIONS OF IL/IN/WI IN THE WARM CONVEYOR BELT PORTION             
OF THE SYSTEM...WHERE A 50 KNOT LL JET IS AIDING IN WEAK MOISTURE               
ADVECTION AND CROSS ISOBARIC FLOW...LENDING TO UPGLIDE. VERY DRY                
COLUMN AS INDICATED BY ILX AND DVN SOUNDINGS IS ACTING TO LIMIT                 
SNOWFALL SOMEWHAT...SUPPORTING WIDESPREAD VIRGA UNTIL SATURATION IS             
REACHED. THIS IS EVIDENT IN THE DONUT HOLE SIGNATURES THAT WERE                 
OBSERVED AT DVN/ILX/AND LOT. REGARDLESS...ONCE SATURATION IS                    
REACHED...EXPECTING A PERIOD OF LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW TO OVERSPREAD            
THE REGION...SUPPORTING A QUICK BURST OF 1 TO 2 INCHES OF                       
SNOW...WITH 1 INCH AMOUNTS MORE THE NORM. RATHER ROBUST TROPOPAUSE              
PRESSURE RISES COUPLED WITH STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND DECENT              
MOISTURE CONVERGENCE WILL CONTINUE TO SO SUPPORT BROAD LIFT THROUGH             
MUCH OF THE MORNING AND ACROSS THE FA.                                          
HAVE FAVORED THE SREF AND GFS WRT QPF GUIDANCE WITH THE CLIPPER                 
SYSTEM...BUT OPTED FOR THE SUPPORT OF THE NAM12 FOR LAKE EFFECT                 
PROCESSES. ALSO UTILIZED THE RUC13 FOR ADDED GUIDANCE.                          
TODAY...CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL QUICKLY LEAVE GENERALLY 1 INCH OF                   
SNOWFALL ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE FA. IN ADDITION STAUNCH FLOW/A              
RATHER TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT/STRONG FLOW ALOFT...45 TO 50 KNOTS OF            
H95 GEOSTROPHIC FLOW/AND LINKED MOMENTUM UNDER CAA WILL SUPPORT                 
GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS. SUSTAINED WINDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH WITH HIGHER               
GUSTS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE EVENING. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR AREAS OF            
BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW...MAKING TRAVEL DIFFICULT IN SOME AREAS.              
ROBUST CAA WITH H85 T/S DROPPING 5 TO 6C WILL HELP SUPPORT INCREASED            
INSTABILITY OVER LK MI THIS AFTERNOON. WESTERLY FLOW AT FIRST WILL              
LIMIT LK SNOW SHOWERS TO MAINLY MI THIS AFTERNOON. LL FLOW WILL                 
CONTINUE TO VEER BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...INCREASING THE FLOW FETCH              
OVER LK MI...WITH PRECONDITIONED FLOW FROM LAKE SUPERIOR DEVELOPING.            
A SECONDARY UPPER IMPULSE WILL ACT TO FURTHER INCREASE INVERSION                
HEIGHTS ALREADY MODIFIED BY LAKE AGGREGATE EFFECTS FROM LK SUPERIOR.            
THE NET EFFECT WILL BE LAKE INDUCED CAPES OF 500 TO 700 J/KG WITH               
MAX UPWARD OMEGA IN THE DGZ. THIS WILL FAVOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF                 
SEVERAL INTENSE BANDS OF LK EFFECT SNOW...CONGEALING INTO ONE                   
DOMINATE BAND AS CONVECTIVE INFLUENCES EVENTUALLY OUTWEIGH WIND                 
SHEAR EFFECTS. NAM12 AND RUC 13 PROGS HAVE CONSISTENTLY BEEN                    
SUPPORTING THE PLACEMENT OF THIS BAND OVER EASTERN BERRIEN AND CASS             
COUNTIES. HIRES WRF SIMULATIONS FURTHER SUPPORT THIS IDEA. SNOWFALL             
RATES OF 2 TO 4 INCHES PER HOUR ARE WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH AN INTENSE            
DOMINATE BAND...ESPECIALLY IF THE LL MASS FIELD READJUSTS TO THE                
MESOSCALE PROCESS...ENHANCING LL CONVERGENCE. HAVE ISSUED A WINTER              
STORM WARNING FOR BERRIEN AND CASS COUNTIES...WITH 1 TO 2 INCHES OF             
SNOWFALL THIS MORNING/PERIODS OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW THIS AFTERNOON                
WITH AND ADDITIONAL 2 TO 3 INCHES POSSIBLE/BLOWING SNOW THROUGH THE             
DAY AND NIGHT SIGNIFICANTLY REDUCING VISIBILITIES/AND ADDITIONAL                
HEAVY LAKE EFFECT SNOW WITH AN ADDITIONAL 4 TO 8 INCHES POSSIBLE.               
OPTED FOR A WINTER WEATHER ADV FOR ST. JOE IN/MI AND ELKHART FOR                
COMBINATION OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW WITH 3 TO 6 INCHES             
POSSIBLE BY SUNDAY MORNING. IT IS QUITE POSSIBLE THAT LAGRANGE AND              
MAYBE NOBLE COUNTIES MAY HAVE TO BE ADDED TO THE ADV AS CURRENT                 
MODEL GUIDANCE CERTAINLY HINTS AT A PERIOD OF INTENSE LL OMEGA                  
CENTERED OVER THESE COUNTIES. HEAVIEST LAKE SNOWS WILL OCCUR SAT                
EVENING AND BEGIN TO DIMINISH SUN MORNING WITH FALLING INVERSION                
HEIGHTS AND SFC RIDGING SHIFTING WINDS TO THE SW.                               
TEMPS WILL REMAIN COLD THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH HIGHS RAGING 10 TO 15            
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. HAVE OPTED TO UNDERCUT GUIDANCE TEMPS GIVEN               
ANOMALOUSLY COLD CONDITIONS PRESENT.                                            
LONG TERM...                                                                    
.MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...                                                       
COMPLICATED AND LOW CONFIDENCE LONG TERM FORECAST DUE TO HIGHLY                 
ENERGETIC AND COMPLICATED MID AND UPPER LEVEL FLOW OVER PACIFIC AND             
WESTERN NORTH AMERICA. STILL EXPECT BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR A             
LARGE PART OF THE PERIOD AND POTENTIAL FOR A MODERATE TO HEAVY                  
PRECIPITATION EVENT MID WEEK.                                                   
WATER VAPOR THIS MORNING SHOWS A VERY ENERGETIC PATTERN...SIMILAR TO            
LAST YEAR ABOUT THIS TIME. AS DISCUSSED LAST NIGHT...MODELS LIKELY              
NOT RESOLVING FEATURES OVER THE PACIFIC WELL GIVEN LIMITED SAMPLING             
MEASURES. FIRST AREA OF CONCERN IS WITH IMPRESSIVE LOOKING                      
SUB-TROPICAL MOISTURE PLUME DEVELOPING NEAR 15N AND 120W. MODELS                
TRYING TO PICK UP ON THIS BUT CONCERNED THEY ARE NOT NEAR STRONG                
ENOUGH GIVEN DEPICTION IN WATER VAPOR. THIS AREA EXPECTED TO                    
CONTINUE SPREADING NORTHEAST AND WILL FEED INTO DEVELOPING MID LEVEL            
LOW OFF OF CA COAST THAT WILL BECOME OUR WEATHER MAKER FOR MID WEEK.            
SECONDARY AREA OF CONCERN IS WITH STRONG JET CORE NEAR 40N AND 150W.            
MODELS DO SEEM TO HAVE A HANDLE ON THIS FEATURE...BUT GIVEN ITS                 
STRENGTH THERE IS SOME CONCERN WITH HOW IT WILL EVOLVE OVER WESTERN             
CONUS. THIS IS A LARGE PART OF THE DIFFERENCES IN MODEL SOLUTIONS               
FOR MID WEEK. IT WILL BE THE INTERACTION OF THESE TWO PACIFIC                   
FEATURES WITH THE MID LEVEL LOW ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST CONUS THAT                 
DETERMINES ITS EVOLUTION AND IMPACT ON OUR AREA. AS MENTIONED LAST              
NIGHT...WE FELT MODELS WERE NOT HANDLING THIS ENERGY WELL AND A                 
STRONGER SYSTEM WAS EXPECTED. LATEST MEDIUM RANGE SOLUTIONS ARE                 
INDEED STRONGER...WITH GFS BEING THE STRONGEST.                                 
COMPLICATIONS FOR OUR FORECAST AREA WILL BE WITH AMOUNT OF WARM AIR             
ADVECTION AHEAD OF SYSTEM AND ITS ACTUAL TRACK. ECMWF WHILE WEAKER              
IS FURTHER NORTH WITH STRONG WAA AND MOISTURE INFLUX INTO THE AREA              
LATE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...INDICATING A POSSIBLE HEAVY RAIN                
EVENT. GFS IS STRONGER AND FURTHER SOUTH WITH COLDER AIR OVER                   
NORTHERN HALF OF FORECAST AREA...YIELDING A POSSIBLE RAIN EVENT                 
SOUTH AND SNOW NORTH. BOTH SOLUTIONS PLAUSIBLE AND AGAIN WILL LIKELY            
NOT BE RESOLVED UNTIL SYSTEM GETS WITHIN RADIOSONDE NETWORK.                    
AGREEMENT LIES WITH SOME TYPE OF PRECIPITATION EVENT WITH POTENTIAL             
FOR HEAVY PCPN SOMEWHERE IN THE WESTERN LAKES OR OHIO VALLEY REGION             
FROM LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY. HAVE INCREASED POPS                
DURING THIS WINDOW WITH LIKELY POPS CENTERED ON TUESDAY. STAYED WITH            
ALL SNOW MONDAY NIGHT WITH INITIAL COLDER AIR IN PLACE AND LOWER WET            
BULB TEMPERATURES. ALSO STAYED WITH RAIN OR SNOW MENTION TUESDAY                
GIVEN UNCERTAINTY IN TRACK AND THERMAL FIELDS.                                  
BEYOND WEDNESDAY FEW CHANGES WERE MADE. MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE             
SOME TYPE OF COLDER AIR INTRUSION BUT NOT NEAR AS STRONG AS 48 HOURS            
AGO. THUS KEPT IDEA OF SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. CLIPPER              
SYSTEM POSSIBLE BY END OF WEEK BUT AGAIN QUITE A BIT OF DISAGREEMENT            
IN MODELS SO NO CHANGES MADE.                                                   
SOME SIGNALS TO A PATTERN CHANGE WELL BEYOND DAY 7...TOWARD MID                 
MONTH. ENSEMBLES SHOWING WESTERN CONUS RIDGE BEING REPLACED BY DEEP             
TROUGH WITH FLOW OVER OUR AREA BECOMING MORE SOUTHWEST AND POSSIBLY             
ACTIVE.                                                                         
&&                                                                              
.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
IN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EST /4 PM CST/ THIS AFTERNOON           
     FOR INZ003-006>009-012>018-020-022>027-032>034.                            
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST SUNDAY FOR INZ004-005.              
MI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR MIZ080-          
     081.                                                                       
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST SUNDAY FOR MIZ079.                  
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST SUNDAY FOR MIZ077-078.                 
OH...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR OHZ001-          
     002-004-005-015-016-024-025.                                               
LM...GALE WARNING UNTIL 3 AM EST SUNDAY FOR LMZ043-046.                         
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHORT TERM...JC                                                                 
LONG TERM...LASHLEY                                                             
AVIATION...TAYLOR                                                               
UPDATE...TAYLOR                                                                 
</pre> in                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA                                       
932 AM EST SAT DEC 6 2008                                                       
.UPDATE...                                                                      
AREA OF SNOW MOVG ACROSS CWA ATTM. SNOW FALLING IN WAA REGIME                   
AHEAD OF LOW MOVG SE ACROSS NRN LM. WRN EDGE OF AREA OF PRECIP                  
JUST AHEAD OF THE SYSTEMS COLD FRONT... LOOSES MID LEVEL MOISTURE               
RESULTING IN SOME FREEZING DRIZZLE...HAVE ADDED MENTION OF PATCHY               
FREEZING DRIZZLE TO SE 2/3 OF CWA AS FRONT MOVES THROUGH TODAY.                 
UPSTREAM TEMPS AND CONTD WAA AHEAD OF FRONT SUGGEST GOING HIGHS                 
FOR TODAY ARE A BIT ON THE COLD SIDE AND GENERALLY RAISED ABOUT                 
3F. OTRWS NO SGFNT CHANGES MADE ATTM.                                           
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 620 AM EST SAT DEC 6 2008/                          
AVIATION...                                                                     
SNOW WILL BE OVER THE AREA THIS MORNING AND DIMINISH BY AFTERNOON.              
VIS RESTRICTIONS AND LOWER CIGS EXPECTED. LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS              
WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY. THIS WILL                 
AFFECT MAINLY KSBN BUT TRAJECTORIES SUGGEST SOME SNOW SHOWERS COULD             
MAKE IT INTO KFWA.                                                              
SHORT TERM...                                                                   
..WINTER WEATHER TO IMPACT THE REGION TODAY AND TONIGHT...                      
TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT                                                      
RATHER POTENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SFC CYCLONE IS PUSHING            
INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. AN AREA ON LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW IS               
ONGOING OVER PORTIONS OF IL/IN/WI IN THE WARM CONVEYOR BELT PORTION             
OF THE SYSTEM...WHERE A 50 KNOT LL JET IS AIDING IN WEAK MOISTURE               
ADVECTION AND CROSS ISOBARIC FLOW...LENDING TO UPGLIDE. VERY DRY                
COLUMN AS INDICATED BY ILX AND DVN SOUNDINGS IS ACTING TO LIMIT                 
SNOWFALL SOMEWHAT...SUPPORTING WIDESPREAD VIRGA UNTIL SATURATION IS             
REACHED. THIS IS EVIDENT IN THE DONUT HOLE SIGNATURES THAT WERE                 
OBSERVED AT DVN/ILX/AND LOT. REGARDLESS...ONCE SATURATION IS                    
REACHED...EXPECTING A PERIOD OF LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW TO OVERSPREAD            
THE REGION...SUPPORTING A QUICK BURST OF 1 TO 2 INCHES OF                       
SNOW...WITH 1 INCH AMOUNTS MORE THE NORM. RATHER ROBUST TROPOPAUSE              
PRESSURE RISES COUPLED WITH STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND DECENT              
MOISTURE CONVERGENCE WILL CONTINUE TO SO SUPPORT BROAD LIFT THROUGH             
MUCH OF THE MORNING AND ACROSS THE FA.                                          
HAVE FAVORED THE SREF AND GFS WRT QPF GUIDANCE WITH THE CLIPPER                 
SYSTEM...BUT OPTED FOR THE SUPPORT OF THE NAM12 FOR LAKE EFFECT                 
PROCESSES. ALSO UTILIZED THE RUC13 FOR ADDED GUIDANCE.                          
TODAY...CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL QUICKLY LEAVE GENERALLY 1 INCH OF                   
SNOWFALL ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE FA. IN ADDITION STAUNCH FLOW/A              
RATHER TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT/STRONG FLOW ALOFT...45 TO 50 KNOTS OF            
H95 GEOSTROPHIC FLOW/AND LINKED MOMENTUM UNDER CAA WILL SUPPORT                 
GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS. SUSTAINED WINDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH WITH HIGHER               
GUSTS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE EVENING. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR AREAS OF            
BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW...MAKING TRAVEL DIFFICULT IN SOME AREAS.              
ROBUST CAA WITH H85 T/S DROPPING 5 TO 6C WILL HELP SUPPORT INCREASED            
INSTABILITY OVER LK MI THIS AFTERNOON. WESTERLY FLOW AT FIRST WILL              
LIMIT LK SNOW SHOWERS TO MAINLY MI THIS AFTERNOON. LL FLOW WILL                 
CONTINUE TO VEER BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...INCREASING THE FLOW FETCH              
OVER LK MI...WITH PRECONDITIONED FLOW FROM LAKE SUPERIOR DEVELOPING.            
A SECONDARY UPPER IMPULSE WILL ACT TO FURTHER INCREASE INVERSION                
HEIGHTS ALREADY MODIFIED BY LAKE AGGREGATE EFFECTS FROM LK SUPERIOR.            
THE NET EFFECT WILL BE LAKE INDUCED CAPES OF 500 TO 700 J/KG WITH               
MAX UPWARD OMEGA IN THE DGZ. THIS WILL FAVOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF                 
SEVERAL INTENSE BANDS OF LK EFFECT SNOW...CONGEALING INTO ONE                   
DOMINATE BAND AS CONVECTIVE INFLUENCES EVENTUALLY OUTWEIGH WIND                 
SHEAR EFFECTS. NAM12 AND RUC 13 PROGS HAVE CONSISTENTLY BEEN                    
SUPPORTING THE PLACEMENT OF THIS BAND OVER EASTERN BERRIEN AND CASS             
COUNTIES. HIRES WRF SIMULATIONS FURTHER SUPPORT THIS IDEA. SNOWFALL             
RATES OF 2 TO 4 INCHES PER HOUR ARE WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH AN INTENSE            
DOMINATE BAND...ESPECIALLY IF THE LL MASS FIELD READJUSTS TO THE                
MESOSCALE PROCESS...ENHANCING LL CONVERGENCE. HAVE ISSUED A WINTER              
STORM WARNING FOR BERRIEN AND CASS COUNTIES...WITH 1 TO 2 INCHES OF             
SNOWFALL THIS MORNING/PERIODS OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW THIS AFTERNOON                
WITH AND ADDITIONAL 2 TO 3 INCHES POSSIBLE/BLOWING SNOW THROUGH THE             
DAY AND NIGHT SIGNIFICANTLY REDUCING VISIBILITIES/AND ADDITIONAL                
HEAVY LAKE EFFECT SNOW WITH AN ADDITIONAL 4 TO 8 INCHES POSSIBLE.               
OPTED FOR A WINTER WEATHER ADV FOR ST. JOE IN/MI AND ELKHART FOR                
COMBINATION OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW WITH 3 TO 6 INCHES             
POSSIBLE BY SUNDAY MORNING. IT IS QUITE POSSIBLE THAT LAGRANGE AND              
MAYBE NOBLE COUNTIES MAY HAVE TO BE ADDED TO THE ADV AS CURRENT                 
MODEL GUIDANCE CERTAINLY HINTS AT A PERIOD OF INTENSE LL OMEGA                  
CENTERED OVER THESE COUNTIES. HEAVIEST LAKE SNOWS WILL OCCUR SAT                
EVENING AND BEGIN TO DIMINISH SUN MORNING WITH FALLING INVERSION                
HEIGHTS AND SFC RIDGING SHIFTING WINDS TO THE SW.                               
TEMPS WILL REMAIN COLD THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH HIGHS RAGING 10 TO 15            
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. HAVE OPTED TO UNDERCUT GUIDANCE TEMPS GIVEN               
ANOMALOUSLY COLD CONDITIONS PRESENT.                                            
LONG TERM...                                                                    
..MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...                                                      
COMPLICATED AND LOW CONFIDENCE LONG TERM FORECAST DUE TO HIGHLY                 
ENERGETIC AND COMPLICATED MID AND UPPER LEVEL FLOW OVER PACIFIC AND             
WESTERN NORTH AMERICA. STILL EXPECT BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR A             
LARGE PART OF THE PERIOD AND POTENTIAL FOR A MODERATE TO HEAVY                  
PRECIPITATION EVENT MID WEEK.                                                   
WATER VAPOR THIS MORNING SHOWS A VERY ENERGETIC PATTERN...SIMILAR TO            
LAST YEAR ABOUT THIS TIME. AS DISCUSSED LAST NIGHT...MODELS LIKELY              
NOT RESOLVING FEATURES OVER THE PACIFIC WELL GIVEN LIMITED SAMPLING             
MEASURES. FIRST AREA OF CONCERN IS WITH IMPRESSIVE LOOKING                      
SUB-TROPICAL MOISTURE PLUME DEVELOPING NEAR 15N AND 120W. MODELS                
TRYING TO PICK UP ON THIS BUT CONCERNED THEY ARE NOT NEAR STRONG                
ENOUGH GIVEN DEPICTION IN WATER VAPOR. THIS AREA EXPECTED TO                    
CONTINUE SPREADING NORTHEAST AND WILL FEED INTO DEVELOPING MID LEVEL            
LOW OFF OF CA COAST THAT WILL BECOME OUR WEATHER MAKER FOR MID WEEK.            
SECONDARY AREA OF CONCERN IS WITH STRONG JET CORE NEAR 40N AND 150W.            
MODELS DO SEEM TO HAVE A HANDLE ON THIS FEATURE...BUT GIVEN ITS                 
STRENGTH THERE IS SOME CONCERN WITH HOW IT WILL EVOLVE OVER WESTERN             
CONUS. THIS IS A LARGE PART OF THE DIFFERENCES IN MODEL SOLUTIONS               
FOR MID WEEK. IT WILL BE THE INTERACTION OF THESE TWO PACIFIC                   
FEATURES WITH THE MID LEVEL LOW ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST CONUS THAT                 
DETERMINES ITS EVOLUTION AND IMPACT ON OUR AREA. AS MENTIONED LAST              
NIGHT...WE FELT MODELS WERE NOT HANDLING THIS ENERGY WELL AND A                 
STRONGER SYSTEM WAS EXPECTED. LATEST MEDIUM RANGE SOLUTIONS ARE                 
INDEED STRONGER...WITH GFS BEING THE STRONGEST.                                 
COMPLICATIONS FOR OUR FORECAST AREA WILL BE WITH AMOUNT OF WARM AIR             
ADVECTION AHEAD OF SYSTEM AND ITS ACTUAL TRACK. ECMWF WHILE WEAKER              
IS FURTHER NORTH WITH STRONG WAA AND MOISTURE INFLUX INTO THE AREA              
LATE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...INDICATING A POSSIBLE HEAVY RAIN                
EVENT. GFS IS STRONGER AND FURTHER SOUTH WITH COLDER AIR OVER                   
NORTHERN HALF OF FORECAST AREA...YIELDING A POSSIBLE RAIN EVENT                 
SOUTH AND SNOW NORTH. BOTH SOLUTIONS PLAUSIBLE AND AGAIN WILL LIKELY            
NOT BE RESOLVED UNTIL SYSTEM GETS WITHIN RADIOSONDE NETWORK.                    
AGREEMENT LIES WITH SOME TYPE OF PRECIPITATION EVENT WITH POTENTIAL             
FOR HEAVY PCPN SOMEWHERE IN THE WESTERN LAKES OR OHIO VALLEY REGION             
FROM LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY. HAVE INCREASED POPS                
DURING THIS WINDOW WITH LIKELY POPS CENTERED ON TUESDAY. STAYED WITH            
ALL SNOW MONDAY NIGHT WITH INITIAL COLDER AIR IN PLACE AND LOWER WET            
BULB TEMPERATURES. ALSO STAYED WITH RAIN OR SNOW MENTION TUESDAY                
GIVEN UNCERTAINTY IN TRACK AND THERMAL FIELDS.                                  
BEYOND WEDNESDAY FEW CHANGES WERE MADE. MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE             
SOME TYPE OF COLDER AIR INTRUSION BUT NOT NEAR AS STRONG AS 48 HOURS            
AGO. THUS KEPT IDEA OF SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. CLIPPER              
SYSTEM POSSIBLE BY END OF WEEK BUT AGAIN QUITE A BIT OF DISAGREEMENT            
IN MODELS SO NO CHANGES MADE.                                                   
SOME SIGNALS TO A PATTERN CHANGE WELL BEYOND DAY 7...TOWARD MID                 
MONTH. ENSEMBLES SHOWING WESTERN CONUS RIDGE BEING REPLACED BY DEEP             
TROUGH WITH FLOW OVER OUR AREA BECOMING MORE SOUTHWEST AND POSSIBLY             
ACTIVE.                                                                         
&&                                                                              
.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
IN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 AM EST               
     SUNDAY FOR INZ004-005.                                                     
MI...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST SUNDAY FOR MIZ077-078.                 
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST SUNDAY FOR MIZ079.                  
OH...NONE.                                                                      
LM...GALE WARNING UNTIL 3 AM EST SUNDAY FOR LMZ043-046.                         
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHORT TERM...JC                                                                 
LONG TERM...LASHLEY                                                             
AVIATION...JC                                                                   
UPDATE...TAYLOR                                                                 
</pre> in                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA                                       
620 AM EST SAT DEC 6 2008                                                       
.AVIATION...                                                                    
SNOW WILL BE OVER THE AREA THIS MORNING AND DIMINISH BY AFTERNOON.              
VIS RESTRICTIONS AND LOWER CIGS EXPECTED. LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS              
WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY. THIS WILL                 
AFFECT MAINLY KSBN BUT TRAJECTORIES SUGGEST SOME SNOW SHOWERS COULD             
MAKE IT INTO KFWA.                                                              
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM...                                                                  
...WINTER WEATHER TO IMPACT THE REGION TODAY AND TONIGHT...                     
TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT                                                      
RATHER POTENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SFC CYCLONE IS PUSHING            
INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. AN AREA ON LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW IS               
ONGOING OVER PORTIONS OF IL/IN/WI IN THE WARM CONVEYOR BELT PORTION             
OF THE SYSTEM...WHERE A 50 KNOT LL JET IS AIDING IN WEAK MOISTURE               
ADVECTION AND CROSS ISOBARIC FLOW...LENDING TO UPGLIDE. VERY DRY                
COLUMN AS INDICATED BY ILX AND DVN SOUNDINGS IS ACTING TO LIMIT                 
SNOWFALL SOMEWHAT...SUPPORTING WIDESPREAD VIRGA UNTIL SATURATION IS             
REACHED. THIS IS EVIDENT IN THE DONUT HOLE SIGNATURES THAT WERE                 
OBSERVED AT DVN/ILX/AND LOT. REGARDLESS...ONCE SATURATION IS                    
REACHED...EXPECTING A PERIOD OF LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW TO OVERSPREAD            
THE REGION...SUPPORTING A QUICK BURST OF 1 TO 2 INCHES OF                       
SNOW...WITH 1 INCH AMOUNTS MORE THE NORM. RATHER ROBUST TROPOPAUSE              
PRESSURE RISES COUPLED WITH STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND DECENT              
MOISTURE CONVERGENCE WILL CONTINUE TO SO SUPPORT BROAD LIFT THROUGH             
MUCH OF THE MORNING AND ACROSS THE FA.                                          
HAVE FAVORED THE SREF AND GFS WRT QPF GUIDANCE WITH THE CLIPPER                 
SYSTEM...BUT OPTED FOR THE SUPPORT OF THE NAM12 FOR LAKE EFFECT                 
PROCESSES. ALSO UTILIZED THE RUC13 FOR ADDED GUIDANCE.                          
TODAY...CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL QUICKLY LEAVE GENERALLY 1 INCH OF                   
SNOWFALL ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE FA. IN ADDITION STAUNCH FLOW/A              
RATHER TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT/STRONG FLOW ALOFT...45 TO 50 KNOTS OF            
H95 GEOSTROPHIC FLOW/AND LINKED MOMENTUM UNDER CAA WILL SUPPORT                 
GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS. SUSTAINED WINDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH WITH HIGHER               
GUSTS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE EVENING. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR AREAS OF            
BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW...MAKING TRAVEL DIFFICULT IN SOME AREAS.              
ROBUST CAA WITH H85 T/S DROPPING 5 TO 6C WILL HELP SUPPORT INCREASED            
INSTABILITY OVER LK MI THIS AFTERNOON. WESTERLY FLOW AT FIRST WILL              
LIMIT LK SNOW SHOWERS TO MAINLY MI THIS AFTERNOON. LL FLOW WILL                 
CONTINUE TO VEER BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...INCREASING THE FLOW FETCH              
OVER LK MI...WITH PRECONDITIONED FLOW FROM LAKE SUPERIOR DEVELOPING.            
A SECONDARY UPPER IMPULSE WILL ACT TO FURTHER INCREASE INVERSION                
HEIGHTS ALREADY MODIFIED BY LAKE AGGREGATE EFFECTS FROM LK SUPERIOR.            
THE NET EFFECT WILL BE LAKE INDUCED CAPES OF 500 TO 700 J/KG WITH               
MAX UPWARD OMEGA IN THE DGZ. THIS WILL FAVOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF                 
SEVERAL INTENSE BANDS OF LK EFFECT SNOW...CONGEALING INTO ONE                   
DOMINATE BAND AS CONVECTIVE INFLUENCES EVENTUALLY OUTWEIGH WIND                 
SHEAR EFFECTS. NAM12 AND RUC 13 PROGS HAVE CONSISTENTLY BEEN                    
SUPPORTING THE PLACEMENT OF THIS BAND OVER EASTERN BERRIEN AND CASS             
COUNTIES. HIRES WRF SIMULATIONS FURTHER SUPPORT THIS IDEA. SNOWFALL             
RATES OF 2 TO 4 INCHES PER HOUR ARE WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH AN INTENSE            
DOMINATE BAND...ESPECIALLY IF THE LL MASS FIELD READJUSTS TO THE                
MESOSCALE PROCESS...ENHANCING LL CONVERGENCE. HAVE ISSUED A WINTER              
STORM WARNING FOR BERRIEN AND CASS COUNTIES...WITH 1 TO 2 INCHES OF             
SNOWFALL THIS MORNING/PERIODS OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW THIS AFTERNOON                
WITH AND ADDITIONAL 2 TO 3 INCHES POSSIBLE/BLOWING SNOW THROUGH THE             
DAY AND NIGHT SIGNIFICANTLY REDUCING VISIBILITIES/AND ADDITIONAL                
HEAVY LAKE EFFECT SNOW WITH AN ADDITIONAL 4 TO 8 INCHES POSSIBLE.               
OPTED FOR A WINTER WEATHER ADV FOR ST. JOE IN/MI AND ELKHART FOR                
COMBINATION OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW WITH 3 TO 6 INCHES             
POSSIBLE BY SUNDAY MORNING. IT IS QUITE POSSIBLE THAT LAGRANGE AND              
MAYBE NOBLE COUNTIES MAY HAVE TO BE ADDED TO THE ADV AS CURRENT                 
MODEL GUIDANCE CERTAINLY HINTS AT A PERIOD OF INTENSE LL OMEGA                  
CENTERED OVER THESE COUNTIES. HEAVIEST LAKE SNOWS WILL OCCUR SAT                
EVENING AND BEGIN TO DIMINISH SUN MORNING WITH FALLING INVERSION                
HEIGHTS AND SFC RIDGING SHIFTING WINDS TO THE SW.                               
TEMPS WILL REMAIN COLD THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH HIGHS RAGING 10 TO 15            
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. HAVE OPTED TO UNDERCUT GUIDANCE TEMPS GIVEN               
ANOMALOUSLY COLD CONDITIONS PRESENT.                                            
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM...                                                                   
...MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...                                                     
COMPLICATED AND LOW CONFIDENCE LONG TERM FORECAST DUE TO HIGHLY                 
ENERGETIC AND COMPLICATED MID AND UPPER LEVEL FLOW OVER PACIFIC AND             
WESTERN NORTH AMERICA. STILL EXPECT BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR A             
LARGE PART OF THE PERIOD AND POTENTIAL FOR A MODERATE TO HEAVY                  
PRECIPITATION EVENT MID WEEK.                                                   
WATER VAPOR THIS MORNING SHOWS A VERY ENERGETIC PATTERN...SIMILAR TO            
LAST YEAR ABOUT THIS TIME. AS DISCUSSED LAST NIGHT...MODELS LIKELY              
NOT RESOLVING FEATURES OVER THE PACIFIC WELL GIVEN LIMITED SAMPLING             
MEASURES. FIRST AREA OF CONCERN IS WITH IMPRESSIVE LOOKING                      
SUB-TROPICAL MOISTURE PLUME DEVELOPING NEAR 15N AND 120W. MODELS                
TRYING TO PICK UP ON THIS BUT CONCERNED THEY ARE NOT NEAR STRONG                
ENOUGH GIVEN DEPICTION IN WATER VAPOR. THIS AREA EXPECTED TO                    
CONTINUE SPREADING NORTHEAST AND WILL FEED INTO DEVELOPING MID LEVEL            
LOW OFF OF CA COAST THAT WILL BECOME OUR WEATHER MAKER FOR MID WEEK.            
SECONDARY AREA OF CONCERN IS WITH STRONG JET CORE NEAR 40N AND 150W.            
MODELS DO SEEM TO HAVE A HANDLE ON THIS FEATURE...BUT GIVEN ITS                 
STRENGTH THERE IS SOME CONCERN WITH HOW IT WILL EVOLVE OVER WESTERN             
CONUS. THIS IS A LARGE PART OF THE DIFFERENCES IN MODEL SOLUTIONS               
FOR MID WEEK. IT WILL BE THE INTERACTION OF THESE TWO PACIFIC                   
FEATURES WITH THE MID LEVEL LOW ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST CONUS THAT                 
DETERMINES ITS EVOLUTION AND IMPACT ON OUR AREA. AS MENTIONED LAST              
NIGHT...WE FELT MODELS WERE NOT HANDLING THIS ENERGY WELL AND A                 
STRONGER SYSTEM WAS EXPECTED. LATEST MEDIUM RANGE SOLUTIONS ARE                 
INDEED STRONGER...WITH GFS BEING THE STRONGEST.                                 
COMPLICATIONS FOR OUR FORECAST AREA WILL BE WITH AMOUNT OF WARM AIR             
ADVECTION AHEAD OF SYSTEM AND ITS ACTUAL TRACK. ECMWF WHILE WEAKER              
IS FURTHER NORTH WITH STRONG WAA AND MOISTURE INFLUX INTO THE AREA              
LATE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...INDICATING A POSSIBLE HEAVY RAIN                
EVENT. GFS IS STRONGER AND FURTHER SOUTH WITH COLDER AIR OVER                   
NORTHERN HALF OF FORECAST AREA...YIELDING A POSSIBLE RAIN EVENT                 
SOUTH AND SNOW NORTH. BOTH SOLUTIONS PLAUSIBLE AND AGAIN WILL LIKELY            
NOT BE RESOLVED UNTIL SYSTEM GETS WITHIN RADIOSONDE NETWORK.                    
AGREEMENT LIES WITH SOME TYPE OF PRECIPITATION EVENT WITH POTENTIAL             
FOR HEAVY PCPN SOMEWHERE IN THE WESTERN LAKES OR OHIO VALLEY REGION             
FROM LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY. HAVE INCREASED POPS                
DURING THIS WINDOW WITH LIKELY POPS CENTERED ON TUESDAY. STAYED WITH            
ALL SNOW MONDAY NIGHT WITH INITIAL COLDER AIR IN PLACE AND LOWER WET            
BULB TEMPERATURES. ALSO STAYED WITH RAIN OR SNOW MENTION TUESDAY                
GIVEN UNCERTAINTY IN TRACK AND THERMAL FIELDS.                                  
BEYOND WEDNESDAY FEW CHANGES WERE MADE. MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE             
SOME TYPE OF COLDER AIR INTRUSION BUT NOT NEAR AS STRONG AS 48 HOURS            
AGO. THUS KEPT IDEA OF SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. CLIPPER              
SYSTEM POSSIBLE BY END OF WEEK BUT AGAIN QUITE A BIT OF DISAGREEMENT            
IN MODELS SO NO CHANGES MADE.                                                   
SOME SIGNALS TO A PATTERN CHANGE WELL BEYOND DAY 7...TOWARD MID                 
MONTH. ENSEMBLES SHOWING WESTERN CONUS RIDGE BEING REPLACED BY DEEP             
TROUGH WITH FLOW OVER OUR AREA BECOMING MORE SOUTHWEST AND POSSIBLY             
ACTIVE.                                                                         
&&                                                                              
AVIATION.../06Z TAFS/                                                           
CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION DURING THE                          
PERIOD...BRINGING DETERIORATING FLIGHT CONDITIONS TO THE REGION.                
EXPECTING A PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS/VISBY WITH THE SYNOPTIC SYSTEM AT               
SBN AND FWA. THIS LINES UP WELL WITH MOS AND UPSTREAM OBS. STRONG               
GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BE EXPECTED GIVEN VERY STRONG FLOW OFF               
THE SFC AND A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT IN PLACE. COLD FRONT WILL                 
PUSH THROUGH THE REGION LATE MORNING AND EARLY                                  
AFTERNOON...ALLOWING WINDS TO VEER WESTERLY. GUSTS OF 25 TO 30                  
KNOTS WILL SUPPORT AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW...WHICH COULD ALLOW FOR                
BRIEF VISBY REDUCTIONS ACROSS THE FA. LAKE EFFECT SNOWS WILL                    
DEVELOP AND SHIFT SOUTH INTO THE NORTHWEST FA...WITH IFR/LIFR                   
CONDITIONS LIKELY THERE BY EVENING IN A COMBINATION OF BLOWING                  
SNOW AND HEAVY LAKE SNOWS. HAVE TRENDED SBN IN THIS DIRECTION.                  
&&                                                                              
.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
IN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 AM EST               
     SUNDAY FOR INZ004-005.                                                     
MI...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST SUNDAY FOR MIZ077-078.                 
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST SUNDAY FOR MIZ079.                  
OH...NONE.                                                                      
LM...GALE WARNING UNTIL 3 AM EST SUNDAY FOR LMZ043-046.                         
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHORT TERM...JC                                                                 
LONG TERM...LASHLEY                                                             
AVIATION...JC                                                                   
</pre> in                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA                                       
400 AM EST SAT DEC 6 2008                                                       
.SHORT TERM...                                                                  
...WINTER WEATHER TO IMPACT THE REGION TODAY AND TONIGHT...                     
TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT                                                      
RATHER POTENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SFC CYCLONE IS PUSHING            
INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. AN AREA ON LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW IS               
ONGOING OVER PORTIONS OF IL/IN/WI IN THE WARM CONVEYOR BELT PORTION             
OF THE SYSTEM...WHERE A 50 KNOT LL JET IS AIDING IN WEAK MOISTURE               
ADVECTION AND CROSS ISOBARIC FLOW...LENDING TO UPGLIDE. VERY DRY                
COLUMN AS INDICATED BY ILX AND DVN SOUNDINGS IS ACTING TO LIMIT                 
SNOWFALL SOMEWHAT...SUPPORTING WIDESPREAD VIRGA UNTIL SATURATION IS             
REACHED. THIS IS EVIDENT IN THE DONUT HOLE SIGNATURES THAT WERE                 
OBSERVED AT DVN/ILX/AND LOT. REGARDLESS...ONCE SATURATION IS                    
REACHED...EXPECTING A PERIOD OF LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW TO OVERSPREAD            
THE REGION...SUPPORTING A QUICK BURST OF 1 TO 2 INCHES OF                       
SNOW...WITH 1 INCH AMOUNTS MORE THE NORM. RATHER ROBUST TROPOPAUSE              
PRESSURE RISES COUPLED WITH STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND DECENT              
MOISTURE CONVERGENCE WILL CONTINUE TO SO SUPPORT BROAD LIFT THROUGH             
MUCH OF THE MORNING AND ACROSS THE FA.                                          
HAVE FAVORED THE SREF AND GFS WRT QPF GUIDANCE WITH THE CLIPPER                 
SYSTEM...BUT OPTED FOR THE SUPPORT OF THE NAM12 FOR LAKE EFFECT                 
PROCESSES. ALSO UTILIZED THE RUC13 FOR ADDED GUIDANCE.                          
TODAY...CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL QUICKLY LEAVE GENERALLY 1 INCH OF                   
SNOWFALL ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE FA. IN ADDITION STAUNCH FLOW/A              
RATHER TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT/STRONG FLOW ALOFT...45 TO 50 KNOTS OF            
H95 GEOSTROPHIC FLOW/AND LINKED MOMENTUM UNDER CAA WILL SUPPORT                 
GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS. SUSTAINED WINDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH WITH HIGHER               
GUSTS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE EVENING. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR AREAS OF            
BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW...MAKING TRAVEL DIFFICULT IN SOME AREAS.              
ROBUST CAA WITH H85 T/S DROPPING 5 TO 6C WILL HELP SUPPORT INCREASED            
INSTABILITY OVER LK MI THIS AFTERNOON. WESTERLY FLOW AT FIRST WILL              
LIMIT LK SNOW SHOWERS TO MAINLY MI THIS AFTERNOON. LL FLOW WILL                 
CONTINUE TO VEER BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...INCREASING THE FLOW FETCH              
OVER LK MI...WITH PRECONDITIONED FLOW FROM LAKE SUPERIOR DEVELOPING.            
A SECONDARY UPPER IMPULSE WILL ACT TO FURTHER INCREASE INVERSION                
HEIGHTS ALREADY MODIFIED BY LAKE AGGREGATE EFFECTS FROM LK SUPERIOR.            
THE NET EFFECT WILL BE LAKE INDUCED CAPES OF 500 TO 700 J/KG WITH MAX           
UPWARD OMEGA IN THE DGZ. THIS WILL FAVOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF SEVERAL             
INTENSE BANDS OF LK EFFECT SNOW...CONGEALING INTO ONE DOMINATE BAND             
AS CONVECTIVE INFLUENCES EVENTUALLY OUTWEIGH WIND SHEAR EFFECTS.                
NAM12 AND RUC 13 PROGS HAVE CONSISTENTLY BEEN SUPPORTING THE                    
PLACEMENT OF THIS BAND OVER EASTERN BERRIEN AND CASS COUNTIES. HIRES            
WRF SIMULATIONS FURTHER SUPPORT THIS IDEA. SNOWFALL RATES OF 2 TO 4             
INCHES PER HOUR ARE WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH AN INTENSE DOMINATE                   
BAND...ESPECIALLY IF THE LL MASS FIELD READJUSTS TO THE MESOSCALE               
PROCESS...ENHANCING LL CONVERGENCE. HAVE ISSUED A WINTER STORM                  
WARNING FOR BERRIEN AND CASS COUNTIES...WITH 1 TO 2 INCHES OF                   
SNOWFALL THIS MORNING/PERIODS OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW THIS AFTERNOON                
WITH AND ADDITIONAL 2 TO 3 INCHES POSSIBLE/BLOWING SNOW THROUGH THE             
DAY AND NIGHT SIGNIFICANTLY REDUCING VISIBILITIES/AND ADDITIONAL                
HEAVY LAKE EFFECT SNOW WITH AN ADDITIONAL 4 TO 8 INCHES POSSIBLE.               
OPTED FOR A WINTER WEATHER ADV FOR ST. JOE IN/MI AND ELKHART FOR                
COMBINATION OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW WITH 3 TO 6 INCHES             
POSSIBLE BY SUNDAY MORNING. IT IS QUITE POSSIBLE THAT LAGRANGE AND              
MAYBE NOBLE COUNTIES MAY HAVE TO BE ADDED TO THE ADV AS CURRENT                 
MODEL GUIDANCE CERTAINLY HINTS AT A PERIOD OF INTENSE LL OMEGA                  
CENTERED OVER THESE COUNTIES. HEAVIEST LAKE SNOWS WILL OCCUR SAT                
EVENING AND BEGIN TO DIMINISH SUN MORNING WITH FALLING INVERSION                
HEIGHTS AND SFC RIDGING SHIFTING WINDS TO THE SW.                               
TEMPS WILL REMAIN COLD THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH HIGHS RAGING 10 TO 15            
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. HAVE OPTED TO UNDERCUT GUIDANCE TEMPS GIVEN               
ANOMALOUSLY COLD CONDITIONS PRESENT.                                            
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM...                                                                   
...MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...                                                     
COMPLICATED AND LOW CONFIDENCE LONG TERM FORECAST DUE TO HIGHLY                 
ENERGETIC AND COMPLICATED MID AND UPPER LEVEL FLOW OVER PACIFIC AND             
WESTERN NORTH AMERICA. STILL EXPECT BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR A             
LARGE PART OF THE PERIOD AND POTENTIAL FOR A MODERATE TO HEAVY                  
PRECIPITATION EVENT MID WEEK.                                                   
WATER VAPOR THIS MORNING SHOWS A VERY ENERGETIC PATTERN...SIMILAR TO            
LAST YEAR ABOUT THIS TIME. AS DISCUSSED LAST NIGHT...MODELS LIKELY              
NOT RESOLVING FEATURES OVER THE PACIFIC WELL GIVEN LIMITED SAMPLING             
MEASURES. FIRST AREA OF CONCERN IS WITH IMPRESSIVE LOOKING                      
SUB-TROPICAL MOISTURE PLUME DEVELOPING NEAR 15N AND 120W. MODELS                
TRYING TO PICK UP ON THIS BUT CONCERNED THEY ARE NOT NEAR STRONG                
ENOUGH GIVEN DEPICTION IN WATER VAPOR. THIS AREA EXPECTED TO                    
CONTINUE SPREADING NORTHEAST AND WILL FEED INTO DEVELOPING MID LEVEL            
LOW OFF OF CA COAST THAT WILL BECOME OUR WEATHER MAKER FOR MID WEEK.            
SECONDARY AREA OF CONCERN IS WITH STRONG JET CORE NEAR 40N AND 150W.            
MODELS DO SEEM TO HAVE A HANDLE ON THIS FEATURE...BUT GIVEN ITS                 
STRENGTH THERE IS SOME CONCERN WITH HOW IT WILL EVOLVE OVER WESTERN             
CONUS. THIS IS A LARGE PART OF THE DIFFERENCES IN MODEL SOLUTIONS               
FOR MID WEEK. IT WILL BE THE INTERACTION OF THESE TWO PACIFIC                   
FEATURES WITH THE MID LEVEL LOW ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST CONUS THAT                 
DETERMINES ITS EVOLUTION AND IMPACT ON OUR AREA. AS MENTIONED LAST              
NIGHT...WE FELT MODELS WERE NOT HANDLING THIS ENERGY WELL AND A                 
STRONGER SYSTEM WAS EXPECTED. LATEST MEDIUM RANGE SOLUTIONS ARE                 
INDEED STRONGER...WITH GFS BEING THE STRONGEST.                                 
COMPLICATIONS FOR OUR FORECAST AREA WILL BE WITH AMOUNT OF WARM AIR             
ADVECTION AHEAD OF SYSTEM AND ITS ACTUAL TRACK. ECMWF WHILE WEAKER              
IS FURTHER NORTH WITH STRONG WAA AND MOISTURE INFLUX INTO THE AREA              
LATE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...INDICATING A POSSIBLE HEAVY RAIN                
EVENT. GFS IS STRONGER AND FURTHER SOUTH WITH COLDER AIR OVER                   
NORTHERN HALF OF FORECAST AREA...YIELDING A POSSIBLE RAIN EVENT                 
SOUTH AND SNOW NORTH. BOTH SOLUTIONS PLAUSIBLE AND AGAIN WILL LIKELY            
NOT BE RESOLVED UNTIL SYSTEM GETS WITHIN RADIOSONDE NETWORK.                    
AGREEMENT LIES WITH SOME TYPE OF PRECIPITATION EVENT WITH POTENTIAL             
FOR HEAVY PCPN SOMEWHERE IN THE WESTERN LAKES OR OHIO VALLEY REGION             
FROM LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY. HAVE INCREASED POPS                
DURING THIS WINDOW WITH LIKELY POPS CENTERED ON TUESDAY. STAYED WITH            
ALL SNOW MONDAY NIGHT WITH INITIAL COLDER AIR IN PLACE AND LOWER WET            
BULB TEMPERATURES. ALSO STAYED WITH RAIN OR SNOW MENTION TUESDAY                
GIVEN UNCERTAINTY IN TRACK AND THERMAL FIELDS.                                  
BEYOND WEDNESDAY FEW CHANGES WERE MADE. MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE             
SOME TYPE OF COLDER AIR INTRUSION BUT NOT NEAR AS STRONG AS 48 HOURS            
AGO. THUS KEPT IDEA OF SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. CLIPPER              
SYSTEM POSSIBLE BY END OF WEEK BUT AGAIN QUITE A BIT OF DISAGREEMENT            
IN MODELS SO NO CHANGES MADE.                                                   
SOME SIGNALS TO A PATTERN CHANGE WELL BEYOND DAY 7...TOWARD MID                 
MONTH. ENSEMBLES SHOWING WESTERN CONUS RIDGE BEING REPLACED BY DEEP             
TROUGH WITH FLOW OVER OUR AREA BECOMING MORE SOUTHWEST AND POSSIBLY             
ACTIVE.                                                                         
&&                                                                              
AVIATION.../06Z TAFS/                                                           
CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION DURING THE                          
PERIOD...BRINGING DETERIORATING FLIGHT CONDITIONS TO THE REGION.                
EXPECTING A PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS/VISBY WITH THE SYNOPTIC SYSTEM AT               
SBN AND FWA. THIS LINES UP WELL WITH MOS AND UPSTREAM OBS. STRONG               
GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BE EXPECTED GIVEN VERY STRONG FLOW OFF               
THE SFC AND A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT IN PLACE. COLD FRONT WILL                 
PUSH THROUGH THE REGION LATE MORNING AND EARLY                                  
AFTERNOON...ALLOWING WINDS TO VEER WESTERLY. GUSTS OF 25 TO 30                  
KNOTS WILL SUPPORT AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW...WHICH COULD ALLOW FOR                
BRIEF VISBY REDUCTIONS ACROSS THE FA. LAKE EFFECT SNOWS WILL                    
DEVELOP AND SHIFT SOUTH INTO THE NORTHWEST FA...WITH IFR/LIFR                   
CONDITIONS LIKELY THERE BY EVENING IN A COMBINATION OF BLOWING                  
SNOW AND HEAVY LAKE SNOWS. HAVE TRENDED SBN IN THIS DIRECTION.                  
&&                                                                              
.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
IN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 AM EST               
     SUNDAY FOR INZ004-005.                                                     
MI...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST SUNDAY FOR MIZ077-078.                 
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST SUNDAY FOR MIZ079.                  
OH...NONE.                                                                      
LM...GALE WARNING UNTIL 3 AM EST SUNDAY FOR LMZ043-046.                         
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHORT TERM...JC                                                                 
LONG TERM...LASHLEY                                                             
AVIATION...JC                                                                   
</pre> in                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA                                       
1209 PM EST FRI DEC 5 2008                                                      
.AVIATION...                                                                    
MVFR/LOW VFR STRATO CU OVER THE AREA EXPECTED TO PERSIST UNTIL                  
AFTER DARK WHEN INCRSG SWLY FLOW WILL ADVECT THE LOW CLOUDS OUT OF              
THE AREA. SOME FLURRIES ACCOMPANYING THE LOW CLOUDS SHOULD MAINLY               
IMPACT SBN EARLY IN THE PD WITH BACKING WINDS TAKING LAKE EFFECT                
NORTH OF THE TERMINAL BY 20Z. LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED OVER                 
SASK WILL MOVE SE TO LS WITH ASSOCIATED CDFNT MOVG INTO NW INDIANA              
BY 18Z SAT. HIGH CLOUDS WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA THIS EVE IN                    
ADVANCE OF THIS SYSTEM AND GRADUALLY LOWER OVERNIGHT WITH                       
CONDITIONS THEN LOWERING TO IFR TOWARD MORNING AS A BAND OF SNOW                
ACCOMPANYING FRONTAL PASSAGE MOVES THROUGH.                                     
&&                                                                              
SHORT TERM...                                                                   
TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY                                                          
LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUE TO IMPACT SW MI THIS                          
MORNING...WITH DOPPLER RADAR ESTIMATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ACROSS A              
NARROW SWATH OF BERRIEN AND CASS COUNTIES. OTHERWISE...GENERALLY                
CLEAR SKIES RE PREVAILING ACROSS THE REGION WITH JUST A FEW CLOUDS              
AND FLURRIES ARE IN PLACE ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH WHERE A SUBTLE WIND              
SHIFT IS OCCURRING WITH A WEAK UPPER WAVE. TEMPS ARE GENERALLY IN               
THE TEENS...SAVE FOR THE FAR NW WHERE LOW 20S ARE PRESENT WITH LAKE             
MODIFIED AIR IN PLACE. THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC PICTURE CONTINUES TO                
DISPLAY A BLOCKING TYPE PATTERN WITH A LONG WAVE RIDGE PRESENT OVER             
THE EASTERN PACIFIC...WITH EASTERN CONUS TROUGHING ONGOING...BEING              
REINFORCED BY SEVERAL FAST MOVING NORTHWEST FLOW DISTURBANCES .THE              
NEXT RATHER POTENT UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TAKING AIM ON THE                      
REGION...IS EVIDENT IN WATER VAPOR AND 00Z UPPER AIR ANALYSIS OVER              
NORTHERN BC AND ALBERTA...AS 150 KNOTS PLUS OF FLOW IS PRESENT IN               
THE UPPER JET CORE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM.                                 
TODAY...LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THEIR SLOW DEMISE AS             
INVERSION HEIGHTS FALL INTO THE DGZ/FLOW TURNS MORE                             
SOUTHWESTERLY/AND DRY AIR CONTINUES TO INFILTRATE THE REGION UPWIND             
OF THE LAKE. WILL LET THE ADV RIDE...AS CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN                  
FAVORABLE FOR ANOTHER INCH OR TWO THIS MORNING...AND GIVEN THE                  
MORNING COMMUTE JUST AHEAD. OTHERWISE...NAM12/RUC 13 BOTH INDICATE              
VERY LITTLE QPF BEYOND 15Z. HAVE OPTED FOR DIMINISHING POPS IN THE              
AFTERNOON. LINGERING LL MOISTURE IN THE H9-H85 LAYER WILL ALLOW CU              
DEVELOPMENT ONCE INSOLATION OCCUR THIS MORNING...CLOUDS SHOULD MIX              
OUT INTO THE AFTERNOON WITH A PT SUNNY CONDITIONS POSSIBLE BY THEN.             
TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...POTENT CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL TAKE AIM ON               
THE REGION. MOISTURE LOOKS TO BE LIMITED WITH THIS SYSTEM AS GULF               
INFLUENCES WILL BE NONEXISTENT. HOWEVER...THE BIGGEST IMPACT MAY BE             
THE COMBINATION OF THE 1 TO 2 INCH SNOWFALL AND GUSTY                           
WINDS...CREATING POSSIBLE NEAR ZERO VISIBILITY                                  
CONDITIONS...ESPECIALLY SAT NIGHT WHEN CAA AND DOWNWARD MOMENTUM                
TRANSPORT WILL MAXIMIZED. FORECAST MODELS HAVE PUSHED UP THE ARRIVAL            
TIME OF THIS SYSTEM COMPARED WOT PREVIOUS RUNS...OPTING FOR A SNOW              
ARRIVAL BEFORE 12Z SAT. THIS IS CONFIRMED BY THE GEFS/SREF/AND NAEFS            
ENSEMBLE RUNS WHICH ALSO PREFER THE EARLIER TREND. POTENT ISENTROPIC            
LIFT NOTED ON THE 285K SFC WITH 50 KNOTS CROSS ISOBARIC FLOW UNDER              
TROPOPAUSE PRESSURE RISES AND RATHER STEEP MD LEVEL LAPSE RATES                 
CONFIRM THE SETUP FOR A PERIOD OF DECENT SNOW GIVEN OMEGA MAXIMIZED             
IN THE DGZ. HAVE BLENDED FORECAST POPS UP IN LINE WITH MOS NUMBERS.             
THINGS CERTAINLY GET INTERESTING IN THE NW FA AS LAKE ENHANCEMENT OF            
THE SYNOPTIC SNOW WILL BE LIKELY. FORECAST MODELS PROG THE GREATEST             
IMPACTS FROM LAKE ENHANCEMENT OVER PORTIONS OF WEST CENTRAL MI WHERE            
SNOWFALL RATES COULD BE DOUBLED. NAM H925 OMEGA PLOTS DO CONFIRM                
THAT AS CAA ENSUES AND THE LL FLOW VEERS NW...LAKE EFFECT                       
ENHANCEMENT COULD AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE NW FA...WITH PURE LAKE                 
EFFECT SHOWERS/BANDING LIKELY BY EVENING...LASTING INTO THE                     
OVERNIGHT. THIS AREA WILL NEED TO BE WATCH FOR A POTENTIAL ADV OR               
WATCH/WARNING WITH HEAVY SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW THE BIGGEST CONCERNS.            
A PERIOD OF DECENT LAKE EFFECT SNOW MAY AFFECT THE REMAINDER OF THE             
LAKE BELT REGION INTO SUNDAY GIVEN NNW FLOW TENDING TO FAVOR LAKE               
SUPERIOR AGGREGATE EFFECTS.                                                     
OTHERWISE...EXPECT BELOW TEMPS THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD WITH HIGHS IN              
THE 20S AND LOWS IN THE TEENS TO POSSIBLE SINGLE DIGITS BY SUN                  
MORNING.                                                                        
LONG TERM...                                                                    
..SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...                                                    
THE LONG TERM PICTURE CONTINUES TO BE FRAMED IN A BELOW NORMAL                  
TEMPERATURE PORTRAIT. NUMEROUS SHORT WAVES WILL IMPACT THE AREA OVER            
THE LONG TERM PERIOD AND KEEP COLDER AIR IN PLACE ALONG WITH SEVERAL            
CHANCES FOR SNOWFALL.                                                           
SUNDAY WILL SEE NORTHWEST FLOW AND DELTA T VALUES IN LOWER 20S WHICH            
WILL AID IN LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH MID AFTERNOON BEFORE               
HIGH PRESSURE FINALLY MOVES IN AND ENDS LAKE EFFECT. SIMILAR TO                 
CURRENT EVENT...COULD SEE SEVERAL INCHES OF ACCUMULATION STRUNG OUT             
OVER SEVERAL HOURS FROM SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THIS              
WILL BE DEPENDENT ON ORIENTATION AND MOVEMENT OF BANDS. NO HEADLINES            
PLANNED AT THIS TIME.                                                           
NEXT SYSTEM BEGINS TO TAKE SHAPE TO OUR WEST SUNDAY NIGHT AND                   
APPROACHES MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. WARM AIR ADVECTION BEGINS                 
AHEAD OF THIS WAVE SUNDAY NIGHT WITH INCREASING MOISTURE AND WEAK               
LIFT. MAYBE SOME LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES INTO WESTERN AREAS LATE                 
SUNDAY NIGHT BUT STAYED WITH WELL COLLABORATED MONDAY POPS FOR NOW.             
THIS APPROACHING SHORT WAVE STILL HAS MUCH UNCERTAINTY WITH                     
EVOLUTION AND MOVEMENT. THIS WAVE APPEARS TO DEVELOP OFF THE CA                 
COAST TODAY AND EVENTUALLY MOVES INTO PLAINS ON MONDAY. QUESTION                
REMAINS ON DEGREE OF PHASING WITH NORTHERN STREAM AND STRENGTH OF               
DEVELOPMENT. MEDIUM RANGE MODELS COMING INTO AGREEMENT ON A WEAKER              
SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH OUR AREA BUT THERE HAVE BEEN SOME EARLIER                 
SOLUTIONS SHOWING A STRONGER SYSTEM. SIMILAR PATTERN LAST YEAR SAW A            
TROPICAL MOISTURE PLUME ASSOCIATED WITH THESE WAVES AND MODELS WERE             
SLOW TO CATCH ON. CURRENT WATER VAPOR SHOWS AN ESTABLISHED TROPICAL             
PACIFIC PLUME INTO THE BAJA AREA...SOUTH OF WHERE THIS WAVE IS                  
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP TODAY. THIS WILL BE WATCHED CLOSELY BUT CURRENT             
GRIDS HAVE RAIN OR SNOW FOR TUESDAY WITH BAROCLINIC ZONE IN VICINITY            
OF FA. PLAN TO KEEP THIS FOR NOW AND INCREASED POPS INTO MID CHANCE             
CATEGORY. BELOW NORMAL CONFIDENCE EXISTS FOR TUE THROUGH THURSDAY               
TIME FRAME WITH EVOLUTION OF THIS WAVE AND STRONGER ENERGY DIGGING              
INTO PLAINS TOWARD END OF PERIOD.                                               
&&                                                                              
.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
IN...NONE.                                                                      
MI...NONE.                                                                      
OH...NONE.                                                                      
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR LMZ043-046.          
     GALE WARNING FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 3 AM EST SUNDAY FOR                
     LMZ043-046.                                                                
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHORT TERM...JC                                                                 
LONG TERM...LASHLEY                                                             
AVIATION...TAYLOR                                                               
</pre> in                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA                                       
419 AM EST FRI DEC 5 2008                                                       
.SHORT TERM...                                                                  
ODAY THROUGH SATURDAY                                                           
LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUE TO IMPACT SW MI THIS                          
MORNING...WITH DOPPLER RADAR ESTIMATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ACROSS A              
NARROW SWATH OF BERRIEN AND CASS COUNTIES. OTHERWISE...GENERALLY                
CLEAR SKIES RE PREVAILING ACROSS THE REGION WITH JUST A FEW CLOUDS              
AND FLURRIES ARE IN PLACE ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH WHERE A SUBTLE WIND              
SHIFT IS OCCURRING WITH A WEAK UPPER WAVE. TEMPS ARE GENERALLY IN               
THE TEENS...SAVE FOR THE FAR NW WHERE LOW 20S ARE PRESENT WITH LAKE             
MODIFIED AIR IN PLACE. THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC PICTURE CONTINUES TO                
DISPLAY A BLOCKING TYPE PATTERN WITH A LONG WAVE RIDGE PRESENT OVER             
THE EASTERN PACIFIC...WITH EASTERN CONUS TROUGHING ONGOING...BEING              
REINFORCED BY SEVERAL FAST MOVING NORTHWEST FLOW DISTURBANCES .THE              
NEXT RATHER POTENT UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TAKING AIM ON THE                      
REGION...IS EVIDENT IN WATER VAPOR AND 00Z UPPER AIR ANALYSIS OVER              
NORTHERN BC AND ALBERTA...AS 150 KNOTS PLUS OF FLOW IS PRESENT IN THE           
UPPER JET CORE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM.                                     
TODAY...LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THEIR SLOW DEMISE AS             
INVERSION HEIGHTS FALL INTO THE DGZ/FLOW TURNS MORE                             
SOUTHWESTERLY/AND DRY AIR CONTINUES TO INFILTRATE THE REGION UPWIND             
OF THE LAKE. WILL LET THE ADV RIDE...AS CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN                  
FAVORABLE FOR ANOTHER INCH OR TWO THIS MORNING...AND GIVEN THE                  
MORNING COMMUTE JUST AHEAD. OTHERWISE...NAM12/RUC 13 BOTH INDICATE              
VERY LITTLE QPF BEYOND 15Z. HAVE OPTED FOR DIMINISHING POPS IN THE              
AFTERNOON. LINGERING LL MOISTURE IN THE H9-H85 LAYER WILL ALLOW CU              
DEVELOPMENT ONCE INSOLATION OCCUR THIS MORNING...CLOUDS SHOULD MIX              
OUT INTO THE AFTERNOON WITH A PT SUNNY CONDITIONS POSSIBLE BY THEN.             
TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...POTENT CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL TAKE AIM ON               
THE REGION. MOISTURE LOOKS TO BE LIMITED WITH THIS SYSTEM AS GULF               
INFLUENCES WILL BE NONEXISTENT. HOWEVER...THE BIGGEST IMPACT MAY BE             
THE COMBINATION OF THE 1 TO 2 INCH SNOWFALL AND GUSTY                           
WINDS...CREATING POSSIBLE NEAR ZERO VISIBILITY                                  
CONDITIONS...ESPECIALLY SAT NIGHT WHEN CAA AND DOWNWARD MOMENTUM                
TRANSPORT WILL MAXIMIZED. FORECAST MODELS HAVE PUSHED UP THE ARRIVAL            
TIME OF THIS SYSTEM COMPARED WOT PREVIOUS RUNS...OPTING FOR A SNOW              
ARRIVAL BEFORE 12Z SAT. THIS IS CONFIRMED BY THE GEFS/SREF/AND NAEFS            
ENSEMBLE RUNS WHICH ALSO PREFER THE EARLIER TREND. POTENT ISENTROPIC            
LIFT NOTED ON THE 285K SFC WITH 50 KNOTS CROSS ISOBARIC FLOW UNDER              
TROPOPAUSE PRESSURE RISES AND RATHER STEEP MD LEVEL LAPSE RATES                 
CONFIRM THE SETUP FOR A PERIOD OF DECENT SNOW GIVEN OMEGA MAXIMIZED             
IN THE DGZ. HAVE BLENDED FORECAST POPS UP IN LINE WITH MOS NUMBERS.             
THINGS CERTAINLY GET INTERESTING IN THE NW FA AS LAKE ENHANCEMENT OF            
THE SYNOPTIC SNOW WILL BE LIKELY. FORECAST MODELS PROG THE GREATEST             
IMPACTS FROM LAKE ENHANCEMENT OVER PORTIONS OF WEST CENTRAL MI WHERE            
SNOWFALL RATES COULD BE DOUBLED. NAM H925 OMEGA PLOTS DO CONFIRM                
THAT AS CAA ENSUES AND THE LL FLOW VEERS NW...LAKE EFFECT                       
ENHANCEMENT COULD AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE NW FA...WITH PURE LAKE                 
EFFECT SHOWERS/BANDING LIKELY BY EVENING...LASTING INTO THE                     
OVERNIGHT. THIS AREA WILL NEED TO BE WATCH FOR A POTENTIAL ADV OR               
WATCH/WARNING WITH HEAVY SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW THE BIGGEST CONCERNS.            
A PERIOD OF DECENT LAKE EFFECT SNOW MAY AFFECT THE REMAINDER OF THE             
LAKE BELT REGION INTO SUNDAY GIVEN NNW FLOW TENDING TO FAVOR LAKE               
SUPERIOR AGGREGATE EFFECTS.                                                     
OTHERWISE...EXPECT BELOW TEMPS THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD WITH HIGHS IN THE          
20S AND LOWS IN THE TEENS TO POSSIBLE SINGLE DIGITS BY SUN MORNING.             
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM...                                                                   
...SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...                                                   
THE LONG TERM PICTURE CONTINUES TO BE FRAMED IN A BELOW NORMAL                  
TEMPERATURE PORTRAIT. NUMEROUS SHORT WAVES WILL IMPACT THE AREA OVER            
THE LONG TERM PERIOD AND KEEP COLDER AIR IN PLACE ALONG WITH SEVERAL            
CHANCES FOR SNOWFALL.                                                           
SUNDAY WILL SEE NORTHWEST FLOW AND DELTA T VALUES IN LOWER 20S WHICH            
WILL AID IN LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH MID AFTERNOON BEFORE               
HIGH PRESSURE FINALLY MOVES IN AND ENDS LAKE EFFECT. SIMILAR TO                 
CURRENT EVENT...COULD SEE SEVERAL INCHES OF ACCUMULATION STRUNG OUT             
OVER SEVERAL HOURS FROM SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THIS              
WILL BE DEPENDENT ON ORIENTATION AND MOVEMENT OF BANDS. NO HEADLINES            
PLANNED AT THIS TIME.                                                           
NEXT SYSTEM BEGINS TO TAKE SHAPE TO OUR WEST SUNDAY NIGHT AND                   
APPROACHES MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. WARM AIR ADVECTION BEGINS                 
AHEAD OF THIS WAVE SUNDAY NIGHT WITH INCREASING MOISTURE AND WEAK               
LIFT. MAYBE SOME LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES INTO WESTERN AREAS LATE                 
SUNDAY NIGHT BUT STAYED WITH WELL COLLABORATED MONDAY POPS FOR NOW.             
THIS APPROACHING SHORT WAVE STILL HAS MUCH UNCERTAINTY WITH                     
EVOLUTION AND MOVEMENT. THIS WAVE APPEARS TO DEVELOP OFF THE CA                 
COAST TODAY AND EVENTUALLY MOVES INTO PLAINS ON MONDAY. QUESTION                
REMAINS ON DEGREE OF PHASING WITH NORTHERN STREAM AND STRENGTH OF               
DEVELOPMENT. MEDIUM RANGE MODELS COMING INTO AGREEMENT ON A WEAKER              
SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH OUR AREA BUT THERE HAVE BEEN SOME EARLIER                 
SOLUTIONS SHOWING A STRONGER SYSTEM. SIMILAR PATTERN LAST YEAR SAW A            
TROPICAL MOISTURE PLUME ASSOCIATED WITH THESE WAVES AND MODELS WERE             
SLOW TO CATCH ON. CURRENT WATER VAPOR SHOWS AN ESTABLISHED TROPICAL             
PACIFIC PLUME INTO THE BAJA AREA...SOUTH OF WHERE THIS WAVE IS                  
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP TODAY. THIS WILL BE WATCHED CLOSELY BUT CURRENT             
GRIDS HAVE RAIN OR SNOW FOR TUESDAY WITH BAROCLINIC ZONE IN VICINITY            
OF FA. PLAN TO KEEP THIS FOR NOW AND INCREASED POPS INTO MID CHANCE             
CATEGORY. BELOW NORMAL CONFIDENCE EXISTS FOR TUE THROUGH THURSDAY               
TIME FRAME WITH EVOLUTION OF THIS WAVE AND STRONGER ENERGY DIGGING              
INTO PLAINS TOWARD END OF PERIOD.                                               
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION.../06Z TAFS/                                                          
FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS WILL BE LIMITED TO LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS                 
ACROSS THE FAR NORTH. VARYING CIGS DOWN TO 1.5KFT AND VISBYS DOWN               
TO 1/2 MILE ARE POSSIBLE IN THE HEAVIER BANDS...WHICH WILL BE                   
CONFINED TO SOUTHERN MI. SBN WILL BE ON THE EDGE OF THE ACTIVITY                
WITH A PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS AND VISBYS POSSIBLE EARLY THIS MORNING.              
OTHERWISE...SCT MVFR CIGS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SOUTH AND                 
WEST...WITH A WEAK UPPER WAVE PASSING THROUGH THE REGION. WINDS                 
WILL BACK SOUTHERLY THROUGH THE PERIOD...IN RESPONSE TO THE NEXT                
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHING THE REGION.                                     
&&                                                                              
.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
IN...NONE.                                                                      
MI...LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR MIZ077>079.             
OH...NONE.                                                                      
LM...GALE WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE SATURDAY NIGHT             
     FOR LMZ043-046.                                                            
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST SATURDAY FOR LMZ043-046.               
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHORT TERM...JC                                                                 
LONG TERM...LASHLEY                                                             
AVIATION...JC                                                                   
</pre> in                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA                                       
1229 AM EST FRI DEC 5 2008                                                      
.AVIATION.../06Z TAFS/                                                          
FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS WILL BE LIMITED TO LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS                 
ACROSS THE FAR NORTH. VARYING CIGS DOWN TO 1.5KFT AND VISBYS DOWN               
TO 1/2 MILE ARE POSSIBLE IN THE HEAVIER BANDS...WHICH WILL BE                   
CONFINED TO SOUTHERN MI. SBN WILL BE ON THE EDGE OF THE ACTIVITY                
WITH A PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS AND VISBYS POSSIBLE EARLY THIS MORNING.              
OTHERWISE...SCT MVFR CIGS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SOUTH AND                 
WEST...WITH A WEAK UPPER WAVE PASSING THROUGH THE REGION. WINDS                 
WILL BACK SOUTHERLY THROUGH THE PERIOD...IN RESPONSE TO THE NEXT                
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHING THE REGION.                                     
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1141 PM EST THU DEC 4 2008/                         
UPDATE...                                                                       
LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS ARE ONGOING ACROSS SW LOWER MI...WITH                  
SOME INTENSE SQUALLS PRODUCING ONE INCH PER HOUR SNOW RATES PER                 
SPOTTER REPORTS. SNOW SHOWERS HAVE INCREASED IN COVERAGE AND                    
INTENSITY PER COOLING ALOFT PER AN ADVANCING UPPER WAVE...ALLOWING              
LAKE INDUCED CAPES TO RISE TO NEARLY 600 J/KG...WITH MAX UPWARD                 
OMEGA IN THE DGZ. WITH BUFR PROGS SUPPORTING CAPES AROUND 400-600               
J/KG THROUGH ABOUT NOON WITH FAVORABLE FETCH AND LL UPWIND RH OF                
AT LEAST 60 PERCENT...HAVE ISSUED A LAKE SNOW ADV FOR ACCUMS OF                 
2-4 INCHES WITH IMPACTS TO TRAVEL. INVERSION HEIGHTS WILL FALL                  
FRIDAY MORNING...TRENDING SHOWER ACTIVITY TO JUST FLURRIES BY                   
AFTERNOON. HAVE OPTED FOR A BLEND OF THE RUC13 AND NAM12                        
QPF...WHICH PLACES MAXIMUM VALUES IN CASS AND WESTERN SAINT JOSEPH              
/MI/...WHERE 5 INCHES MAY BE POSSIBLE BASED ON A 23:1 RATIO.                    
OTHERWISE...JUST SOME TWEAKS TO SKY GRIDS...ALL ELSE IN GOOD SHAPE.             
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 343 PM EST THU DEC 4 2008/                           
SHORT TERM...                                                                   
CAA/LAKE EFFECT CLOUDINESS CONTS OVER THE GRTLKS REGION...INCLUDING             
NE 1/2 OF OUR CWA THIS AFTN. SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW HAS OCCURRED MUCH            
OF THE DAY ACROSS MUCH OF SRN MI AND ADJACENT NRN INDIANA                       
COUNTIES...HWVR INVERSION WHICH TAMDAR SOUNDINGS INDICATE IS BASED              
AROUND 3-5KFT...ALONG WITH SHORT WNW FETCH HAS LIMITED INTENSITY                
OF SNOW SHOWERS IN OUR AREA. COLDER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT                 
INTO THE REGION TONIGHT. SHRTWV SEEN ON WATER VAPOR OVER THE UPR                
MS VALLEY WITH A SFC REFLECTION SEEN IN SFC OBS MOVG INTO NW IL                 
ACCOMPANIED BY A FEW FLURRIES IS EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST ACROSS OUR               
CWA TONIGHT PSBLY CAUSING SOME FLURRIES OUTSIDE OF LAKE EFFECT                  
AREAS. ALSO INVERSION WILL RISE OVERNIGHT AS THE TROF MOVES                     
THROUGH WHICH SHOULD INCREASE INTENSITY OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW                     
SHOWERS... THOUGH CONTD SHORT FETCH WILL STILL BE LIMITING FACTOR               
TO SGFNT ACCUMS...WENT WITH 1-2" OVER SRN MI WITH <1" IN ADJACENT               
IN/OH COUNTIES. H85 TEMPS EXPECTED TO FALL TO AROUND -15C IN OUR                
CWA OVERNIGHT. UPSTREAM TEMPS THIS MORNING IN THIS AIRMASS IN                   
SINGLE DIGITS/TEENS. WITH LESS SNOW COVER IN OUR AREA THAN IA/NRN               
IL AND PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES EXPECTED OVERNIGHT...KEPT LOWS             
IN THE TEENS.                                                                   
WITH THERMAL TROF MOVG ACROSS THE AREA ON FRIDAY...TEMPS ONLY                   
EXPECTED TO RISE INTO THE L-M20S. SFC RIDGE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE                
AREA DURING THE DAY CAUSING WINDS TO BACK TO SW BRINGING LAKE EFFECT            
TO AN END ACROSS OUR CWA BY EVE WITH THE PSBL EXCEPTION OF NRN                  
BERRIEN COUNTY. AMOUNT OF CLOUDS QUESTIONABLE. BOTH NAM AND GFS                 
INDICATE H925 WILL BE SATURATED...BUT THIS LAYER WAS TOO MOIST IN               
MODELS TODAY...SO OPTIMISTICALLY WENT WITH PARTLY SUNNY SKIES                   
AGAIN ACROSS SRN PORTION OF THE CWA.                                            
ANOTHER STRONG CDFNT WILL DROP SE INTO THE WRN GRTLKS FRI NIGHT. ANY            
REMAINING LOW CLOUDS EXPECTED TO ADVECT NE OUT OF THE AREA IN THE               
EVE AS SWLY LOW LEVEL FLOW INCREASES. HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE SPREADING             
INTO THE AREA AHD OF THE UPR TROF SO EXPECTING MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES              
WITH LITTLE TEMP DROP. CONTD WITH SMALL CHC OF SNOW FOR LATE FRI                
NIGHT AS FRONT APPROACHES...BUT STILL APPEARS BEST CHC OF SNOW                  
WITH THE FRONT WILL BE SATURDAY.                                                
LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...                                      
CONTINUED COLD AND ACTIVE PATTERN THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD WITH              
QUICK CLIPPER AND LAKE EFFECT SAT NITE/SUN FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER                  
POTENTIAL STRONG SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE EASTERN US MIDWEEK.                  
EXTENDED BEGINS WITH CLIPPER SYSTEM IMPACTING NW CWA AS SFC                     
LOW MOVES THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT LAKES.  SIGNIFICANT TIMING                    
DIFFERENCES BETWEEN SLOWER NAM/FASTER GFS BRINGING PRECIP INTO THE              
CWA ON SATURDAY AND HAVE SIDED WITH THE TIMING OF 09Z SREF AS A                 
COMPROMISE.  HWVR AS AN ADDNL NOD TO MODEL PERFORMANCE WITH THE PREV            
SYSTEM HAVE MAINTAINED EARLIER POPS INDICATED BY THE GFS AND                    
UNDERCUT THE MODEL CONSENSUS QPF BY A MARGINAL AMOUNT AS THE 12Z GFS            
DECREASED QPF FROM 00Z/06Z RUNS POSSIBLY FORESHADOWING SIMILAR                  
OUTCOME OF REALIZING LESSER AMOUNTS.  NET RESULT IS LIGHT/MOD SNOW              
SETTLING IN SATURDAY MORNING AND EXPANDING ACROSS THE CWA WITH                  
RELATIVELY MINOR SYNOPTIC QPF AMOUNTS.  ZONE-OMEGA TECHNIQUE                    
INDICATES SNOW RATIOS ON THE ORDER OF 15:1 TRANSLATING TO 2-3 INCH              
SNOW TOTALS TAPERING OFF FROM NW TOWARDS THE SE. AS SYNOPTIC FORCING            
WANES IN WAKE OF SFC LOW WINDS TURNING NW PRODUCE LAKE EFFECT SETUP             
BEGINNING AROUND 00Z SAT AND CONTINUING INTO SUNDAY. BUFR SOUNDINGS             
SHOW DELTA-T`S PEAKING AT 20 DEG WITH INVERSION LOCATED IN LOW END              
OF GROWTH ZONE AND UNIDIRECTIONAL 20KT WINDS THROUGH THE LAYER. HAVE            
REMAINED CONSERVATIVE WITH SNOW AMOUNTS GIVEN LOCATION OF EQL LEVELS            
HWVR POTENTIAL EXITS FOR MORE SIGNIFICANT SNOW WITH SMALL CHANGE IN             
THERMAL PROFILE FAVORING BETTER SNOW GROWTH.                                    
UPR TROF SHIFTS EASTWARD WITH FLOW RETURNING TO SOUTHERLY BY MONDAY             
SHUTTING DOWN ANY LEFTOVER LAKE EFFECT MECHANISM AND WARMING TEMPS              
BACK TO UPPER 20S AND INTO LOW 30S FOR TUESDAY.  RELIEF IS                      
POTENTIALLY SHORT LIVED HOWEVER AS MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW STRONG               
MID WEEK STORM TAKING SHAPE AS SFC LOW EJECTS NE THROUGH THE EASTERN            
US WHILE SECOND DEEPER LOW WRAPS UP NEAR BASE OF MID LEVEL TROF                 
ALONG GOMEX WHILE A PUSH OF ARCTIC AIR INTO THE US FOLLOWS.                     
CONSIDERABLE SPREAD AMONG OPERATIONAL MODELS AND ENSEMBLES AS ONE               
WOULD EXPECT THIS FAR OUT SO HAVE NOT ATTEMPTED TO GO BEYOND THE BIG            
PICTURE WHICH PAINTS POPS MON-WED AND COLDER TEMPS BEHIND FRONT ON              
WEDNESDAY. HAVE KEPT LATE WEEK TEMPS ABOVE GUIDANCE AS GFS TENDS TO             
CONSISTENTLY OVERDO COLD AIR INTRUSIONS SEVERAL DAYS OUT AND ECMWF              
IS NOT AS AGGRESSIVE WITH ADVANCEMENT OF COLD AIR INTO THE UPPER                
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. STAY TUNED.                                                 
&&                                                                              
.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
IN...NONE.                                                                      
MI...LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR MIZ077>079.             
OH...NONE.                                                                      
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST SATURDAY FOR LMZ043-046.               
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHORT TERM...TAYLOR                                                             
LONG TERM...LUDINGTON                                                           
AVIATION...JC                                                                   
UPDATE...JC                                                                     
</pre> in                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL                                      
950 PM CST FRI DEC 5 2008                                                       
.UPDATE...                                                                      
ANOTHER ROUND OF UPDATES WERE SENT OUT AROUND 9 PM.  THE MAIN                   
CHANGES WERE TO REDUCE SNOWFALL AMOUNTS OVER SOUTHEAST IOWA AND WEST            
CENTRAL ILLINOIS AND TO TWEAK HOURLY TEMP TRENDS AND INCREASE WINDS             
TONIGHT.  00Z ANALYSIS SHOWED A SURFACE WARM FROM EXTENDING SOUTH               
THROUGH CENTRAL IOWA WITH THE H8 FRONT OVER EASTERN IA AND THE                  
ARCTIC SURFACE FRONT JUST CROSSING INTO NORTH DAKOTA.  SNOW RAPIDLY             
DEVELOPED FROM MN SE INTO NORTHEAST IA THIS EVENING IN ISENTROPIC               
LIFT ACROSS THE WARM FRONT.  ONE BAND OF SNOW WAS MOVING THROUGH THE            
NORTHERN CWA AND HAS PRODUCED VSBYS AROUND 1 MILE FOR A BRIEF TIME.             
REGIONAL RADAR COMPOSITE WAS SHOWING ANOTHER BAND OF SNOW MOVING                
THROUGH NORTH CENTRAL IOWA WHICH SHOULD SPREAD OVER THE NRN CWA                 
AROUND MIDNIGHT.  CURRENT PCPN TRENDS COMBINED WITH RUC/NAM                     
ISENTROPIC PROGS SUGGEST MOST OF THE SNOW TONIGHT WILL BE NORTH OF              
I80.  SO AMOUNTS AND POPS WERE TRIMMED BACK SOME OVER THE SOUTHERN              
CWA WITH LITTLE CHANGE MADE TO PREVIOUS SNOWFALL AMOUNTS IN THE                 
NORTH.  CWA WILL ALSO BE IN THE WARM SECTOR MOST OF THE NIGHT WITH              
STRONG SOUTHWEST WINDS AND CLOUDS HELPING TEMPS RISE SLOWLY MOST OF             
THE NIGHT.                                                                      
...DLF...                                                                       
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
SNOW MOVING THROUGH NRN CWFA CURRENTLY WILL PRODUCE OCCASIONAL MVFR             
CIGS/VSBYS WITH BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS AT KCID/KDBQ/KMLI THROUGH EARLY            
SATURDAY MORNING.  MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT KBRL                   
OVERNIGHT.  SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL BE SUSTAINED AT 15 TO                 
20KTS WITH GUSTS IN THE 25KTS TO 30KTS RANGE MOST OF THE NIGHT.                 
ARCTIC FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH THROUGH ALL TAF SITES BETWEEN 12Z AND              
18Z SATURDAY EXPECT STRONG NW WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT...WHICH MAY                
CAUSE SOME REDUCED VSBYS IN BLOWING SNOW.  ALSO EXPECTING MVFR CIGS             
MOST OF THE DAY.                                                                
...DLF...                                                                       
&&                                                                              
.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
IA...NONE.                                                                      
IL...NONE.                                                                      
MO...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
HAASE/NICHOLS                                                                   
</pre> ia                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED                                            
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY                                             
850 PM EST SAT DEC 6 2008                                                       
.SHORT TERM.../THE REST OF TONIGHT/...UPDATED                                   
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE            
AREA. THESE ARE ALL OUT AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT. MUCH OF            
THESE WILL BE WINDING DOWN OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. THE NEXT              
BATCH OF PRECIP THAT WILL BE AFFECTING OUR AREA IS OVER INDIANA. THIS           
IS POST FRONTAL...AND ASSOCIATED WITH A SUBTLE H5 VORT MAX...VISIBLE            
ON THE RUC13 AND WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. VISIBILITIES IN THIS PRECIP ARE           
ALL 3 TO 5 MILES ATTM...BUT AM CONCERNED THIS COULD BE ENHANCED JUST            
A LITTLE AS IT MOVES OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF EASTERN KENTUCKY. FOR           
THIS REASON...INCREASED POPS TONIGHT AND MENTIONED NUMEROUS LIGHT               
SNOW SHOWERS AS OPPOSED TO FLURRIES FOR MUCH OF OUR AREA. TAPERED               
POPS DOWN RAPIDLY IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CWA...WHERE THEY REMAIN IN THE            
LEAST FAVORABLE MOISTURE FOR SIGNIFICANT SHSN COVERAGE. FROPA SHOULD            
OCCUR WITHIN A COUPLE HOURS OF MIDNIGHT ACROSS THE CWA. MEAN RH                 
DECREASES...BUT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LINGERS IN THE SNOW GROWTH REGION.           
STILL THINK ANY ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE LESS THAN A HALF INCH...WITH              
AROUND A HALF INCH POSSIBLE IN FAR SOUTHEAST KENTUCKY. BEST UPSLOPE             
FLOW WILL NOT LIKELY OCCUR UNTIL 08 OR 09Z AS WINDS SHIFT AROUND TO             
THE NORTHWEST. BY THEN...MOISTURE SHOULD BE BEGINNING TO DECREASE.              
LOW TEMPS LOOKED GOOD...SO NO MAJOR ADJUSTMENTS THERE. DID TWEAK THE            
HOURLY TEMPS...AS TEMPS RANGE FROM THE UPPER 20S TO THE MID 30S                 
ACROSS OUR CWA JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THESE WILL DROP OFF AFTER               
FROPA. STILL THE MAJOR TRAVEL CONCERN OVERNIGHT IS REFREEZING WATER             
ON ROADWAYS. WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT THIS IN SPECIAL WEATHER                 
STATEMENTS...WEB HEADLINES...AND IN THE HWO. UPDATED FORECAST                   
PRODUCTS ARE ALREADY OUT.                                                       
THE PREVIOUS SHORT TERM FORECAST DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...                          
/TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/                                                  
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS IN PLACE OVER MUCH OF THE EASTERN                      
CONUS...WITH A RELATIVELY POTENT SW/V CURRENTLY WORKING THROUGH THE             
OH VALLEY. THE SFC AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS WORKING INTO MI AND                  
ONTARIO...WITH THE COLD FRONT TRAILING SOUTH INTO THE OH VALLEY. THE            
EARLIER BAND OF LIGHT SNOW HAS GENERALLY MOVED EAST OF THE AREA WITH            
SOME WARMER AND DRIER AIR ATTEMPTING TO ADVECT IN IN THE WARM SECTOR.           
A FEW ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS WERE OVER INDIANA AND ILLINOIS IN ADVANCE           
OF THE FRONT.                                                                   
THE COLD FRONT WILL WORK ACROSS WESTERN AND INTO CENTRAL KY THIS                
EVENING AND THEN CROSS THE JKL CWA GENERALLY BETWEEN 0Z AND 4Z. IN              
ADDITION AS THE SW/V MOVES THROUGH THE OH VALLEY...THE LAPSE RATES              
WILL INCREASE AND THERE SHOULD BE REDEVELOPMENT OF SNOW SHOWERS                 
DURING THE EVENING HOURS OVER THE NE PART OF THE CWA AND ALONG THE VA           
BORDER AREA THIS MORNING. WENT WITH SCATTERED POPS OVER MUCH OF THE             
CWA...WITH SLIGHT CHANCE IN THE SW AND LIKELY NEAR THE VA BORDER.               
ALTHOUGH QPF WILL BE VERY MINIMAL...A DUSTING TO ONE HALF OF AN INCH            
OF SNOW CANNOT BE RULED OUT FROM THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT                
HOURS GIVEN HIGH SNOW TO LIQUID RATIOS. THE SUBSIDENCE INVERSION                
WILL LOWER AND THE BL IS EXPECTED TO DRY OUT TOWARD 12Z SUN...SO WE             
WENT WITH ONLY ISOLATED FLURRIES AND SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE SE ON SUN.           
AS FAR AS TEMPS...WITH A COLDER START THAN WAS EXPECTED                         
EARLIER...OPTED TO LOWER MIN T TONIGHT.                                         
8H TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN COLD FOR MUCH OF TOMORROW...EVEN AS             
HEIGHTS BEGIN TO INCREASE AND SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE TN              
AND OH VALLEYS. BY THE END OF THE DAY -4C IS FORECAST IN THE                    
SW...WITH COLDER...-10 OR -11C IN THE EAST. WITH THAT IN                        
MIND...OPTED TO LEAN TOWARD THE COLDER END OF MOS GUIDANCE.                     
DEPENDING ON THE EXACT TIMING OUT OF THE EXPECTED CU AND SC...TEMPS             
COULD END UP EVEN COLDER THAN THAT...ESPECIALLY SINCE THERE SHOULD              
BE SOME CIRRUS FROM TIME TO TIME IN NW FLOW ALOFT. HOWEVER...MUCH OF            
THE AREA WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH THE FREEZING MARK. HIGH PRESSURE                
WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT EAST ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS AND REACH THE EAST             
COAST PIEDMONT REGION BY EARLY MON. MID AND HIGH CLOUDS LATE MAY                
LIMIT THE TEMP FALL...BUT WITH DRIER DEWPOINTS IN THE TEENS EXPECTED            
BY LATE ON SUN AND EXPECTED EARLY DECOUPLING DUE TO CLEARING                    
SKIES...KEPT THE SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN GUIDANCE TEMPS FOR VALLEYS ON             
SUN NIGHT. SOUTHERLY FLOW ON THE RIDGES SHOULD LEAD TO A MODERATE               
RIDGE/VALLEY SPLIT.                                                             
MON APPEARS TO BE A TRANSITION DAY AS WEAK UPPER RIDGING WORKS                  
ACROSS THE AREA...WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES. GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED                
WARMER OVERALL AND UPPED MAX T FOR MON. HOWEVER...TWO                           
SHORTWAVES...ONE OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND ANOTHER OVER THE                 
SOUTHERN ROCKIES WILL BEGIN TO CARVE OUT A PLAINS TROUGH. LEE                   
CYCLOGENESIS SHOULD TAKE PLACE LATER IN THE PERIOD...WITH AN                    
INCREASING LOW LEVEL JET LATE ON TUE NIGHT AS WELL AS INCREASING                
PRESS GRADIENT. ISENTROPIC LIFT SHOULD PRODUCE CLOUDS AT THE VERY               
LEAST...WITH BETTER LIFT AND ASSOCIATED PRECIP LIKELY REMAINING WEST            
AND NORTH OF THE AREA.                                                          
.LONG TERM.../TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/                                         
THE LONG RANGE MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH REGARDS TO NEXT              
WEEKS WEATHER. A FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY ON TUESDAY.             
PRECIPITATION AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL LIKELY BE IN THE FORM OF                  
RAIN...AS BOTH GFS MODELS SOUNDINGS AND TIME HEIGHT CROSS SECTIONS              
ARE KEEPING TEMPERATURES ABOVE FREEZING FOR THE ENTIRE DAY. IT                  
APPEARS AT THIS TIME THAT THE SUB FREEZING AIR WILL NOT MAKES ITS WAY           
INTO THE REGION UNTIL AFTER THE FRONT PASSES BY AND WINDS SHIFT TO              
THE WEST AND NORTHWEST. WITH THAT IT MIND...IT LOOKS LIKE THERE WILL            
BE A PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS BEGINNING AT 7Z WEDNESDAY AND                 
LASTING THROUGH 15 OR 16Z ON WEDNESDAY. LITTLE IF ANY SNOW                      
ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED. IT IS LOOKING MORE AND MORE LIKE NEXT WEEKS           
SYSTEM WILL BRING GOOD SOAKING RAINS TO THE FORECAST AREA. THE LATEST           
GFS MODEL HAS A 60-70KT LOW LEVEL JET MOVING ACROSS KENTUCKY TUESDAY            
AFTERNOON AND NIGHT...WHICH WILL ACT TO REALLY ENHANCE THE RAINFALL             
AHEAD OF THE FRONT. BY THE TIME ENOUGH COLD AIR MAKES IT INTO THE               
AREA FOR SNOW TO FORM...THE BEST JET DYNAMICS WILL BE WELL EAST OF              
THE AREA.                                                                       
TEMPERATURES WERE A MAJOR CHALLENGE FOR NEXT WEEK AS ALL OF THE                 
MODEL DATA IS HAVING A VERY DIFFICULT TIME COMING INTO ANY SORT OF              
AGREEMENT WITH REGARD TO HOW WARM OR COLD IT IS GOING TO BE. MODEL              
SOUNDINGS ARE PAINTING A PICTURE OF VERY COLD DAYTIME HIGHS NEAR                
FREEZING ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...WHILE AT THE SAME TIME THE LATEST             
MEXMOS HAS HIGH TEMPERATURES AROUND 40 ON THU AND FRI...WITH HPC                
COMING IN WITH TEMPS IN THE UPPER 40S FOR THU AND AROUND 40 ON                  
FRIDAY. WHAT I ULTIMATELY DECIDED TO DO WAS ADJUST TEMPERATURES DOWN            
A BIT ACROSS THE BOARD WITH THE EXCEPTION OF TUESDAY                            
AFTERNOON...WHERE I ADJUSTED TEMPS UP A BIT MORE TOWARD THE VERY                
WARM MEXMOS AND HPC NUMBERS AND TO MATCH UP WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES            
BETTER. A FEW ADJUSTMENTS WERE ALSO MADE TO SKY COVER TO ACCOUNT FOR            
TIMING CHANGES MADE TO NEXT WEEKS FRONTAL PASSAGE. DEWPOINTS ARE                
ALSO OUT OF SORTS WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES FOR LATE NEXT WEEK...SO              
ADJUSTMENTS WERE NEEDED THERE AS WELL.                                          
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION.../00Z TO 24Z/                                                        
BANDS OF SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA AHEAD OF A               
COLD FRONT. EXPECTING PREDOMINANT VFR THROUGH 03-04Z...WITH TEMPO IFR           
IN -SHSN NORTH OF LOZ AND SME. AS THE FRONT PASSES THROUGH...EXPECT A           
WSHFT TO THE NW WITH MVFR CIGS. COULD STILL BE SOME ISOLATED -SHSN              
AROUND THE SME AND LOZ TAF SITES...WITH MORE NUMEROUS -SHSN FROM JKL            
AND POINTS EAST AS UPSLOPE FLOW GENERATES ADDITIONAL -SHSN. COULD               
STILL BE SOME ISOLATED IFR CONDITIONS IN ANY OF THE HEAVIER SHSN.               
MVFR CONDITIONS SHOULD LINGER UNTIL 13 TO 14Z AS CLOUDS SCATTER OUT             
AT LOZ AND SME. CIGS WILL REMAIN AT JKL...BUT WILL GRADUALLY LIFT TO            
VFR BY AROUND 14Z. PRECIP SHOULD BE WINDING DOWN AND ENDING EARLY               
SUNDAY MORNING.                                                                 
&&                                                                              
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                        
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHORT TERM...JP/WJM                                                             
LONG TERM....AR                                                                 
AVIATION...WJM                                                                  
</pre> ky                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY                                             
850 PM EST SAT DEC 6 2008                                                       
.SHORT TERM.../THE REST OF TODAY/...UPDATED                                     
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE            
AREA. THESE ARE ALL OUT AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT. MUCH OF            
THESE WILL BE WINDING DOWN OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. THE NEXT              
BATCH OF PRECIP THAT WILL BE AFFECTING OUR AREA IS OVER INDIANA. THIS           
IS POST FRONTAL...AND ASSOCIATED WITH A SUBTLE H5 VORT MAX...VISIBLE            
ON THE RUC13 AND WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. VISIBILITIES IN THIS PRECIP ARE           
ALL 3 TO 5 MILES ATTM...BUT AM CONCERNED THIS COULD BE ENHANCED JUST            
A LITTLE AS IT MOVES OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF EASTERN KENTUCKY. FOR           
THIS REASON...INCREASED POPS TONIGHT AND MENTIONED NUMEROUS LIGHT               
SNOW SHOWERS AS OPPOSED TO FLURRIES FOR MUCH OF OUR AREA. TAPERED               
POPS DOWN RAPIDLY IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CWA...WHERE THEY REMAIN IN THE            
LEAST FAVORABLE MOISTURE FOR SIGNIFICANT SHSN COVERAGE. FROPA SHOULD            
OCCUR WITHIN A COUPLE HOURS OF MIDNIGHT ACROSS THE CWA. MEAN RH                 
DECREASES...BUT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LINGERS IN THE SNOW GROWTH REGION.           
STILL THINK ANY ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE LESS THAN A HALF INCH...WITH              
AROUND A HALF INCH POSSIBLE IN FAR SOUTHEAST KENTUCKY. BEST UPSLOPE             
FLOW WILL NOT LIKELY OCCUR UNTIL 08 OR 09Z AS WINDS SHIFT AROUND TO             
THE NORTHWEST. BY THEN...MOISTURE SHOULD BE BEGINNING TO DECREASE.              
LOW TEMPS LOOKED GOOD...SO NO MAJOR ADJUSTMENTS THERE. DID TWEAK THE            
HOURLY TEMPS...AS TEMPS RANGE FROM THE UPPER 20S TO THE MID 30S                 
ACROSS OUR CWA JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THESE WILL DROP OFF AFTER               
FROPA. STILL THE MAJOR TRAVEL CONCERN OVERNIGHT IS REFREEZING WATER             
ON ROADWAYS. WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT THIS IN SPECIAL WEATHER                 
STATEMENTS...WEB HEADLINES...AND IN THE HWO. UPDATED FORECAST                   
PRODUCTS ARE ALREADY OUT.                                                       
THE PREVIOUS SHORT TERM FORECAST DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...                          
/TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/                                                  
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS IN PLACE OVER MUCH OF THE EASTERN                      
CONUS...WITH A RELATIVELY POTENT SW/V CURRENTLY WORKING THROUGH THE             
OH VALLEY. THE SFC AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS WORKING INTO MI AND                  
ONTARIO...WITH THE COLD FRONT TRAILING SOUTH INTO THE OH VALLEY. THE            
EARLIER BAND OF LIGHT SNOW HAS GENERALLY MOVED EAST OF THE AREA WITH            
SOME WARMER AND DRIER AIR ATTEMPTING TO ADVECT IN IN THE WARM SECTOR.           
A FEW ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS WERE OVER INDIANA AND ILLINOIS IN ADVANCE           
OF THE FRONT.                                                                   
THE COLD FRONT WILL WORK ACROSS WESTERN AND INTO CENTRAL KY THIS                
EVENING AND THEN CROSS THE JKL CWA GENERALLY BETWEEN 0Z AND 4Z. IN              
ADDITION AS THE SW/V MOVES THROUGH THE OH VALLEY...THE LAPSE RATES              
WILL INCREASE AND THERE SHOULD BE REDEVELOPMENT OF SNOW SHOWERS                 
DURING THE EVENING HOURS OVER THE NE PART OF THE CWA AND ALONG THE VA           
BORDER AREA THIS MORNING. WENT WITH SCATTERED POPS OVER MUCH OF THE             
CWA...WITH SLIGHT CHANCE IN THE SW AND LIKELY NEAR THE VA BORDER.               
ALTHOUGH QPF WILL BE VERY MINIMAL...A DUSTING TO ONE HALF OF AN INCH            
OF SNOW CANNOT BE RULED OUT FROM THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT                
HOURS GIVEN HIGH SNOW TO LIQUID RATIOS. THE SUBSIDENCE INVERSION                
WILL LOWER AND THE BL IS EXPECTED TO DRY OUT TOWARD 12Z SUN...SO WE             
WENT WITH ONLY ISOLATED FLURRIES AND SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE SE ON SUN.           
AS FAR AS TEMPS...WITH A COLDER START THAN WAS EXPECTED EARLIER...OPTED         
TO LOWER MIN T TONIGHT.                                                         
8H TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN COLD FOR MUCH OF TOMORROW...EVEN AS             
HEIGHTS BEGIN TO INCREASE AND SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE TN              
AND OH VALLEYS. BY THE END OF THE DAY -4C IS FORECAST IN THE SW...WITH          
COLDER...-10 OR -11C IN THE EAST. WITH THAT IN MIND...OPTED TO LEAN             
TOWARD THE COLDER END OF MOS GUIDANCE. DEPENDING ON THE EXACT TIMING            
OUT OF THE EXPECTED CU AND SC...TEMPS COULD END UP EVEN COLDER THAN             
THAT...ESPECIALLY SINCE THERE SHOULD BE SOME CIRRUS FROM TIME TO TIME           
IN NW FLOW ALOFT. HOWEVER...MUCH OF THE AREA WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH             
THE FREEZING MARK. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT EAST ACROSS THE            
APPALACHIANS AND REACH THE EAST COAST PIEDMONT REGION BY EARLY MON.             
MID AND HIGH CLOUDS LATE MAY LIMIT THE TEMP FALL...BUT WITH DRIER               
DEWPOINTS IN THE TEENS EXPECTED BY LATE ON SUN AND EXPECTED EARLY               
DECOUPLING DUE TO CLEARING SKIES...KEPT THE SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN                
GUIDANCE TEMPS FOR VALLEYS ON SUN NIGHT. SOUTHERLY FLOW ON THE RIDGES           
SHOULD LEAD TO A MODERATE RIDGE/VALLEY SPLIT.                                   
MON APPEARS TO BE A TRANSITION DAY AS WEAK UPPER RIDGING WORKS                  
ACROSS THE AREA...WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES. GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED                
WARMER OVERALL AND UPPED MAX T FOR MON. HOWEVER...TWO SHORTWAVES...ONE          
OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND ANOTHER OVER THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES WILL            
BEGIN TO CARVE OUT A PLAINS TROUGH. LEE CYCLOGENESIS SHOULD TAKE                
PLACE LATER IN THE PERIOD...WITH AN INCREASING LOW LEVEL JET LATE ON            
TUE NIGHT AS WELL AS INCREASING PRESS GRADIENT. ISENTROPIC LIFT                 
SHOULD PRODUCE CLOUDS AT THE VERY LEAST...WITH BETTER LIFT AND                  
ASSOCIATED PRECIP LIKELY REMAINING WEST AND NORTH OF THE AREA.                  
.LONG TERM.../TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/                                         
THE LONG RANGE MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH REGARDS TO NEXT              
WEEKS WEATHER. A FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY ON TUESDAY.             
PRECIPITATION AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL LIKELY BE IN THE FORM OF                  
RAIN...AS BOTH GFS MODELS SOUNDINGS AND TIME HEIGHT CROSS SECTIONS              
ARE KEEPING TEMPERATURES ABOVE FREEZING FOR THE ENTIRE DAY. IT                  
APPEARS AT THIS TIME THAT THE SUB FREEZING AIR WILL NOT MAKES ITS WAY           
INTO THE REGION UNTIL AFTER THE FRONT PASSES BY AND WINDS SHIFT TO              
THE WEST AND NORTHWEST. WITH THAT IT MIND...IT LOOKS LIKE THERE WILL            
BE A PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS BEGINNING AT 7Z WEDNESDAY AND                 
LASTING THROUGH 15 OR 16Z ON WEDNESDAY. LITTLE IF ANY SNOW                      
ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED. IT IS LOOKING MORE AND MORE LIKE NEXT WEEKS           
SYSTEM WILL BRING GOOD SOAKING RAINS TO THE FORECAST AREA. THE LATEST           
GFS MODEL HAS A 60-70KT LOW LEVEL JET MOVING ACROSS KENTUCKY TUESDAY            
AFTERNOON AND NIGHT...WHICH WILL ACT TO REALLY ENHANCE THE RAINFALL             
AHEAD OF THE FRONT. BY THE TIME ENOUGH COLD AIR MAKES IT INTO THE               
AREA FOR SNOW TO FORM...THE BEST JET DYNAMICS WILL BE WELL EAST OF              
THE AREA.                                                                       
TEMPERATURES WERE A MAJOR CHALLENGE FOR NEXT WEEK AS ALL OF THE                 
MODEL DATA IS HAVING A VERY DIFFICULT TIME COMING INTO ANY SORT OF              
AGREEMENT WITH REGARD TO HOW WARM OR COLD IT IS GOING TO BE. MODEL              
SOUNDINGS ARE PAINTING A PICTURE OF VERY COLD DAYTIME HIGHS NEAR                
FREEZING ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...WHILE AT THE SAME TIME THE LATEST             
MEXMOS HAS HIGH TEMPERATURES AROUND 40 ON THU AND FRI...WITH HPC                
COMING IN WITH TEMPS IN THE UPPER 40S FOR THU AND AROUND 40 ON                  
FRIDAY. WHAT I ULTIMATELY DECIDED TO DO WAS ADJUST TEMPERATURES DOWN            
A BIT ACROSS THE BOARD WITH THE EXCEPTION OF TUESDAY                            
AFTERNOON...WHERE I ADJUSTED TEMPS UP A BIT MORE TOWARD THE VERY                
WARM MEXMOS AND HPC NUMBERS AND TO MATCH UP WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES            
BETTER. A FEW ADJUSTMENTS WERE ALSO MADE TO SKY COVER TO ACCOUNT FOR            
TIMING CHANGES MADE TO NEXT WEEKS FRONTAL PASSAGE. DEWPOINTS ARE                
ALSO OUT OF SORTS WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES FOR LATE NEXT WEEK...SO              
ADJUSTMENTS WERE NEEDED THERE AS WELL.                                          
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION.../00Z TO 24Z/                                                        
BANDS OF SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA AHEAD OF A               
COLD FRONT. EXPECTING PREDOMINANT VFR THROUGH 03-04Z...WITH TEMPO IFR           
IN -SHSN NORTH OF LOZ AND SME. AS THE FRONT PASSES THROUGH...EXPECT A           
WSHFT TO THE NW WITH MVFR CIGS. COULD STILL BE SOME ISOLATED -SHSN              
AROUND THE SME AND LOZ TAF SITES...WITH MORE NUMEROUS -SHSN FROM JKL            
AND POINTS EAST AS UPSLOPE FLOW GENERATES ADDITIONAL -SHSN. COULD               
STILL BE SOME ISOLATED IFR CONDITIONS IN ANY OF THE HEAVIER SHSN.               
MVFR CONDITIONS SHOULD LINGER UNTIL 13 TO 14Z AS CLOUDS SCATTER OUT             
AT LOZ AND SME. CIGS WILL REMAIN AT JKL...BUT WILL GRADUALLY LIFT TO            
VFR BY AROUND 14Z. PRECIP SHOULD BE WINDING DOWN AND ENDING EARLY               
SUNDAY MORNING.                                                                 
&&                                                                              
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                        
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHORT TERM...JP/WJM                                                             
LONG TERM....AR                                                                 
AVIATION...WJM                                                                  
</pre> ky                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME                                             
535 AM EST FRI DEC 5 2008                                                       
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST THIS AFTERNOON AND                    
CREST OVER THE AREA TONIGHT. A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL                      
APPROACH FROM THE WEST SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. THE TROUGH                 
WILL DEVELOP ONE LOW CENTER NEAR THE GULF OF MAINE AND ANOTHER                  
OVER EASTERN NOVA SCOTIA ON SUNDAY. THE TWO LOWS WILL CONSOLIDATE               
OVER THE MARITIMES SUNDAY NIGHT AND LIFT NORTH ACROSS LABRADOR ON               
MONDAY.                                                                         
&&                                                                              
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...                                                 
MAIN CONCERNS WILL BE CLOUDS AND THE SCA FOR THE MARINE SECTION.                
A QUICK UPDATE TO ADD SOME ACCUMULATION ACROSS THE FAR N                        
(MEZ002,005-006) DUE TO A BAND OF SNOW IN ASSOCN W/SOME PVA FROM                
THAT UPPER LEVEL FEATURE MOVING IN FROM QUEBEC. LESS THAN AN INCH OF            
SNOW IS EXPECTED. SNOW RATIO AROUND 20:1. BOOSTED POPS A BIT TO                 
ACCOUNT FOR WHAT THE LATEST RADAR WAS SHOWING. SOME TWEAKS WERE MADE            
TO THE TEMPS.                                                                   
THE CARWRF AND RUC CONTINUE TO HANDLE THE LATEST CONDITIONS QUITE               
WELL AND THEREFORE FOLLOWED THIS BLEND THROUGH TODAY. KEPT MORE                 
CLOUDS ACROSS THE NORTHERN 1/2 OF THE CWA TODAY. MDL SOUNDINGS                  
SHOW DEEP MOISTURE FROM 925-850MBS IN THE AFOREMENTIONED REGION.                
DECIDED ON GOINGS CLOUDY ACROSS THE NORTH AND WEST AND PARTLY                   
CLOUDY CONDITIONS FOR THE INTERIOR DOWNEAST AND COASTAL REGIONS.                
A VORT MAX MOVING ACROSS SOUTHERN QUEBEC THIS MORNING IS FCST TO                
MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE CWA TODAY AIDING IN SOME                
FLURRY OR SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY. KEPT 20-30% POPS ACROSS THE NORTH               
AND WEST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. MADE ADJUSTMENTS TO THE HRLY                    
TEMPS/DWPTS USING THE RTMA AND GMOS BC. GMOS AND NAM12 TEMPS NOT                
CATCHING TO COOLER TEMPS ACROSS THE NORTH AND WEST. TWEAKED MAX                 
TEMPS TODAY AS WELL KNOCKING THEM DOWN BY 3 DEGS WHICH PUTS LOW TO              
MID 20S ACROSS THE NORTH AND WEST. MID/UPPER 30S EXPECTED FOR THE               
DOWNEAST AND COAST.                                                             
CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE TONIGHT AS THE MDL SOUNDINGS                   
DRYING THROUGH 850 MBS WHICH SHOULD LEAD TO SOME CLEARING. THE                  
EXCEPTION TO THIS WILL BE THE WESTERN AREAS AS UPSLOPE EFFECTS                  
COULD KEEP MORE CLOUDS AROUND LONGER. TIRED TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS IN              
THE GRIDS USING THE BTV_SKY TOOL WHICH GAVE PARTLY SKIES.                       
TEMPERATURES WILL BE SOME 5 TO 10 DEGS COLDER THAN THEY WERE SOME               
24 HRS AGO AT THIS TIME SATURDAY MORNING. OVERNIGHT MINS ARE                    
EXPECTED TO DROP BACK INTO THE MID TEENS ACROSS THE NORTH AND                   
UPPER TEENS AND LOWER 20S FOR THE DOWNEAST AND THE COAST.                       
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...                                        
A LARGE TROUGH WILL BE DIGGING INTO THE MIDWEST ON SATURDAY. ONE                
BUNDLE OF ENERGY WILL BE ROUNDING THE BOTTOM OF THE TROUGH THROUGH              
THE SOUTHERN BRANCH AND OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST LATE SATURDAY AS                
ANOTHER BUNDLE OF ENERGY ACROSS THE NORTHERN BRANCH WILL BE                     
DIGGING INTO THE GREAT LAKES. THE SOUTHERN BRANCH ENERGY WILL BE                
FORMING A LOW SOUTH OF NOVA SCOTIA LATER SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY               
WHILE THE NORTHERN BRANCH FORMS A LOW IN THE GULF OF MAINE. THIS                
BRINGS A CHALLENGING FORECAST. THE INTERIOR LOW CARRIES LOTS OF                 
UPPER LEVEL ENERGY BUT MOISTURE MAY BE LIMITED IF THE OUTER LOW                 
WELL TO THE EAST OBSTRUCTS SIGNIFICANT INFLOW OF ATLANTIC                       
MOISTURE. THIS WOULD BRING A LIGHT SNOWFALL OF 2 TO 3 INCHES                    
ACROSS THE AREA. HOWEVER...THE CANADIAN...ECMWF AND SREF CONSOLIDATE            
THE TWO LOWS INTO ONE OVER THE MARITIMES MORE RAPIDLY THAN EITHER               
THE NAM OR THE GFS. A QUICKER CONSOLIDATION WOULD ALLOW A MORE                  
ORGANIZED AREA OF SNOW TO BACK IN FROM THE EAST BRINGING HEAVIER                
SNOW TO THE REGION...ESPECIALLY OVER THE EAST. FOR NOW VERY                     
CONFIDENT WE`LL SEE SNOW SO WILL GO CAT POPS SUNDAY                             
AFTERNOON...WITH AMOUNTS STILL HAVING TO BE RESOLVED.                           
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...                                   
SNOW ACROSS THE AREA WILL LIFT OUT TO THE NORTHEAST SUNDAY NIGHT                
AS THE LOW LIFTS AWAY INTO EASTERN CANADA. THE LOW WILL LIKELY                  
INTENSIFY AS IT CONSOLIDATES TO OUR NORTHEAST. NORTHWEST WINDS                  
BEHIND THE LOW WILL LIKELY RESULT IN BLOWING AND DRIFTING. HIGH                 
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN ON MONDAY AND CREST OVER THE AREA MONDAY                 
NIGHT. A MOIST BUT SOMEWHAT DISORGANIZED SYSTEM WILL APPROACH                   
TUESDAY BRINGING A CHANCE FOR SNOW NORTH AND SNOW OR RAIN CENTRAL               
AND DOWNEAST TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. SOME COLD ARCTIC AIR MAY               
THEN APPROACH FOR MID WEEK.                                                     
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...                                       
NEAR TERM: MVFR CIGS ACROSS THE NORTHERN TAF SITES INTO EARLY                   
AFTERNOON AND THEN CONDITIONS LOOK TO IMPROVE TO VFR THROUGH                    
TONIGHT. KBGR AND KBHB WILL STAY VFR.                                           
SHORT TERM: VFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS SATURDAY WILL LOWER TO IFR                   
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY EVENING AS SNOW MOVES ACROSS THE AREA.               
CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR DOWNEAST EARLY MONDAY MORNING AND                
ACROSS THE NORTH LATER MONDAY. VFR CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED                 
INTO MONDAY NIGHT BEFORE LOWERING TO IFR IN LOW CLOUDS AND                      
PRECIPITATION ON TUESDAY.                                                       
&&                                                                              
.MARINE...                                                                      
NEAR TERM: THE SCA WAS EXTENDED THROUGH LATE MORNING AS WINDS/SEAS              
STILL W/IN SCA RANGE ESP THE SEAS. USED A BLEND OF THE NAM12/GFS                
FOR THE WINDS WHICH GIVES 15-20 KT INTO THE AFTERNOON. GUSTS UP TO              
25 KT WERE ADDED. THE SWANNAM WAVE HEIGHTS MATCHING VERY WELL THIS              
MORNING AND DECIDED TO USE IT TO INITIALIZE THE GRIDS AND THEN                  
BLENDED THE WNAWAVE4 FOR THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. THIS SHOWS                
CONDITIONS GOING BELOW SCA AFT 18Z OR SO.                                       
SHORT TERM: WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AS THE LOW APPROACHES THROUGH                   
SUNDAY. STRONG WINDS POSSIBLY REQUIRING A GALE ARE THEN LIKELY                  
BEHIND THE LOW SUNDAY EVENING INTO MONDAY AS THE LOW INTENSIFIES                
TO OUR NORTHEAST.                                                               
&&                                                                              
.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
ME...NONE.                                                                      
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR                 
         ANZ050>052.                                                            
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
NEAR TERM...HEWITT                                                              
SHORT TERM...BLOOMER                                                            
LONG TERM...BLOOMER                                                             
AVIATION...HEWITT                                                               
MARINE...HEWITT/BLOOMER                                                         
</pre> me                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA                                           
946 PM EST SAT DEC 6 2008                                                       
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES FURTHER OFFSHORE AS A COLD FRONT QUICKLY MOVES             
THROUGH THE AREA OVERNIGHT...THEN OFF THE COAST BY EARLY SUNDAY                 
MORNING. MEANWHILE...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO DEVELOP OFF             
THE CAROLINA COAST...PUSHING WELL OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST SUNDAY             
MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE MID ATLANTIC SUNDAY AND                  
MONDAY. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL AFFECT THE REGION TUESDAY                  
THROUGH THURSDAY.                                                               
&&                                                                              
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...                                       
DIFFUSE REGION OF HIGHER CLOUD TOPS ALONG WITH LIGHT PRECIPITATION              
SHIELD AHEAD OF MID/UPR LVL DEFORMATION AXIS CONTINUES TO PIVOT                 
EWRD ACROSS THE FCST AREA. RIDGING DEFORMATION AT LLVLS BTWN THE                
LOW E OF LAKE HURON AND THE WEAK LOW OFF THE COAST SE OF ILM IS                 
HAVING AN EFFECT ON LIMITING THE DEGREE/DEPTH OF VERTICAL ASCENT                
AND MOISTENING. THUS THE INTENSITY OF THE PRECIP HAS BEEN LIGHT...EVEN          
VERY LIGHT (DRIZZLE) AT TIMES GIVEN THE LACK OF FVRBL UVM/MOISTURE              
ABOVE THE -10C ISOTHERM...WHICH IN TURN LIMITS THE AMOUNT OF ICE                
SEEDING AND DENDRITIC GROWTH INTO THE LOWER MOIST LAYERS.                       
SO...BECAUSE OF THE LIGHT NATURE OF THE PRECIP...TEMPS IN MOST                  
AREAS HAVE HAD A REAL DIFFICULT DROPPING TO THE WET BULB READINGS...            
THUS ALLOWING FOR MORE OF A LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE/SNOW MIX VS. ALL                 
SNOW. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS THUS FAR HAVE BEEN GENERALLY LESS THAN A               
QUARTER INCH TOPS...MAINLY ON ELEVATED OR NON-PAVED SURFACES W OF               
I-95 WHERE THE ELEVATION CLIMBS TO ABOVE 200 FT.                                
FOR THE OVERNIGHT...THE RUC (WHICH HAS DONE WELL THUS FAR WITH THIS             
SYSTEM) CONTINUES TO PIVOT THE AXIS OF LIGHT PRECIP E THROUGH THE               
FCST AREA. ORIENTATION OF THE PRECIP SHIELD SHOULD BECOME MORE N-S              
ORIENTED (VS. THE CURRENT NE-SW ORIENTATION) AS THE MID LVL TROUGH              
(DEFORMATION AXIS) BECOMES MORE NEGATIVELY TILTED. STILL A BIT                  
CONCERNED ABOUT THE POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT (LESS THAN HALF INCH) WET               
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS THE NRN NECK OF VA AND THE LOWER MD ERN               
SHORE. THIS GIVEN THE LOW LEVEL THERMAL PROFILE IN THAT REGION...AS             
SFC WET BULB TEMPS SLOWLY DROP TO AROUND FREEZING THROUGH MIDNIGHT AS           
THE FVRBL DYNAMICS/DEEPER MOISTURE CONTINUE TO MOVE INTO THESE                  
AREAS. ALSO...EXPECT A LONGER PERIOD OF PRECIPITATION AS WELL...                
GIVEN THE AMPLIFICATION (NEG TILT) OF THE MID LEVEL TROUGH AND                  
THUS TRANSITION TOWARD N-S PRECIP AREAS (WHICH TENDS TO ALLOW THE               
PRECIP TO LINGER A WHILE LONGER). FOR NOW...BASED ON THE SFC LAYER              
WARMTH CURRENTLY (SFC TEMPS/WET BULB TEMPS STILL ABOVE FREEZING)                
ALONG WITH ABOVE FREEZING GROUND/PAVEMENT TEMPS...WILL MAINTAIN                 
FCST ACCUMULATION UNDER AN INCH.                                                
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW...                                                    
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...                      
THE FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL PUSH OFF THE COAST SUNDAY MORNING AS HIGH               
PRESSURE REBUILDS IN FROM THE W. AGAIN MAINTAINED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS            
OVER MD/VA ERN SHORE SUN MORNING...WITH DRY/CLEARING CONDITIONS                 
EXPECTED ELSEWHERE. SUN HIGH TEMPS LWR TO MID 40S WITH CAA LOWERING             
H85 TEMPS TO -10C TO -14C.                                                      
EXPECT BREEZY CONDITIONS...SUST AROUND 20 MPH...GUSTS TO 30 MPH (35             
MPH FOR THE ERN SHRE...BELOW WIND ADVSRY) MID MORNING THROUGH THE               
AFTERNOON SUN ACROSS THE FA. WINDINESS DUE TO A TIGHT PRES GRADIENT             
FROM THE DEEPENING LOW OFF THE MID ATLANTIC THEN NEW ENGLAND COAST              
AND HIGH CENTERED OVER THE SRN MS VLY. RESULTANT WIND CHILL VALUES              
WILL BE FROM 25 NW TO 32 SE DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS.                           
HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS OVERHEAD LATE SUNDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY. THE                
GFS IS A LITTLE FASTER IN MVG THE HIGH TO THE COAST BY MONDAY                   
MORNING WHILE THE NAM LAGS BEHIND...BUT SINCE THE GFS IS CURRENTLY              
DEPICTING THE CENTER OF THIS HIGH RATHER ACCURATELY...WILL STICK                
WITH THE SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS SUNDAY NIGHT THAT THIS SOLN WOULD                
WARRANT. TEMPS WILL PLUMMET RAPIDLY AFTER SUNSET AND BASED ON                   
LOCAL THICKNESS SCHEMES LOOK TO BOTTOM OUT IN THE UPR TEENS TO LWR              
20S.                                                                            
SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNS TO THE AREA ON MONDAY BUT NOT STRONG ENOUGH              
TO GET TEMPS MUCH ABOVE THE UPR 30S TO LWR 40 RANGE IN THE                      
AFTN...ESP CONSIDERING THAT CLOUDS WILL ALSO BE ON THE INCREASE                 
THROUGHOUT THE DAY AS THE HIGH SHIFTS OFFSHORE AND SOME WEAK                    
ENERGY MVS TOWARDS THE AREA FROM A SYSTEM MVG THROUGH THE CNTRL                 
PLAINS.                                                                         
RAIN CHANCES PICK UP ON TUESDAY AS THE AFOREMENTIONED SYSTEM                    
CONTINUES TO PUSH EASTWARD INTO THE MS VALLEY. A GOOD OVERRUNNING               
PATTERN SETTING UP AT THAT TIME WILL MEAN LIKELY POPS FOR AT LEAST              
OUR PIEDMONT COUNTIES...ALTHOUGH QPF AMOUNTS NOT THAT IMPRESSIVE                
FOR THE TIME PERIOD.                                                            
THE SFC LOW MVS INTO THE OH VALLEY BY WED MORNING AND LIGHT RAIN                
CONTINUES THROUGH THIS TIME FOR MUCH OF OUR AREA. WITH ALL THE                  
WARM AIR BEING PUMPED INTO THE REGION...NOT EXPECTING TUES NIGHT                
TO BE THAT COLD (MID 40S TO LWR 50S). CONTINUED RAIN CHANCES INTO               
ERY WEDNESDAY AS THE FRONT MVS THROUGH...LEFT POPS AT LIKELY FOR                
NOW FOR THE ENTIRE AREA AND ADDED MENTION OF AN ISOLD TS.                       
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...                                      
THE EXTENDED PERIOD CONTINUES TO HV DIFFICULTY RESOLVING                        
INTERACTIONS BETWEEN NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEMS. AS A                 
RESULT...MODELS ONCE AGAIN HV DIVERGENT SOLNS IN THE THU-SAT TIME               
FRAME.                                                                          
DEEPENING UPR LOW WL PUSH AFOREMENTIONED FRONTAL BNDRY THRU THE                 
MID-ATLANTIC AS IT RIDES FROM SERN TX TO THE FL PANHANDLE ON WED.               
DECENT AGREEMENT NOW AMONGST 12Z OPERATIONAL GFS/EURO IN BRINGING               
THIS FEATURE UP THE SERN COAST THU/FRI. MEANWHILE...ANOTHER LO                  
PRES AREA LKS TO TRACK NE JUST OFF THE SE AND MID ATLC CST. IT                  
APPEARS AS IF COLD AIR ARRIVES LATER THAN PRVSLY EXPECTED...WITH                
COLDER AIR QUICKLY MOVING IN BEHIND THR FRONT ON THU. THIS MAY                  
MAKE FOR SOME P-TYPE ISSUES FOR THU. HOWEVER GIVEN LACK OF MODEL                
CONTINUITY RUN TO RUN...WL KEEP FORECAST SIMPLE AND STICK WITH                  
LIQUID PHASE PCPN FOR NOW AND CONTINUE TO AWAIT BETTER MODEL                    
AGREEMENT. HI PRES WILL BLD IN FM THE W DURING FRI...WITH UPR FLOW              
BECOMING DRIER (QUASI-ZONAL) LTR FRIDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE                  
PERIOD.                                                                         
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION /02Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...                                      
CLOUDS HAVE BEEN THICKENING AND LOWERING THROUGHOUT THE DAY AT ALL              
TAF SITES. EXPECT EVEN LOWER CLOUDS OVERNIGHT AS THE FRONT MVS                  
THROUGH. LOOKING UPSTREAM...MOST CIGS SHOULD REMAIN VFR ALTHOUGH                
THERE WILL PROBABLY BE A FEW SPOTS WHERE THEY COULD GET AS LOW AS               
1500 TO 2000FT AT TIMES. NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO PUT IT IN AS A                 
PREDOMINANT OR TEMPO GROUP FOR NOW. INCLUDED RAIN IN THE ORF AND                
PHF TAFS ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE A BETTER CHANCE FOR RAIN AT ECG                 
AND SBY (ALTHOUGH AT SBY THE RAIN WILL SWITCH OVER TO SNOW JUST                 
BEFORE MIDNIGHT). RAIN CLEARS OUT OF ALL TAF SITES BY EARLY                     
MORNING AND CLOUDS ARE QUICK TO FOLLOW SO LOOKING FOR CLEAR SKIES               
ON SUNDAY. WINDS WILL PICK UP IN THE MORNING HOWEVER AND BE                     
PRETTY GUSTY THROUGHOUT THE DAY. VFR CONDS CONTINUE THROUGH                     
MONDAY.                                                                         
&&                                                                              
.MARINE...                                                                      
WINDS HAVE SLOWLY TURNED TO THE S/SE THIS AFTN AHEAD OF STRG COLD               
FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST THIS EVENING. KEPT INHERITED                    
HEADLINES AS IS...WITH GRADIENT TIGHTENING IN EARNEST AFTER 06Z                 
TONIGHT AS SFC LOW DEVELOPS AND RIDES NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS CAROLINA             
COASTAL PLAIN TOMORROW.                                                         
H85 TEMPS PLUNGE TO -11 TO -13C BY SUNDAY AFTN/EVENG WHICH SHOULD               
ALLOW FOR OPTIMAL MIXING OVER THE RELATIVELY WARM WATERS. NAM/GFS               
BUFKIT DATA SHOWING ADEQUATE MOMENTUM XFER TO YIELD WND GUSTS IN                
THE 35 TO 40 KT RANGE TOMORROW AFTN INTO TOMORROW NIGHT AS LOW                  
INTENSIFIES RAPIDLY WELL OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. H85-92 WINDS                
PROGGED AT 35-40KTS NORTH AND 30-35KTS SOUTH. WL ADD WORDING FOR                
BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS OVER LAND AREAS TOMORROW. OTW...SMALL                
CRAFT FLAGS REMAIN FLYING FOR ERLY SUNDAY MRNG...WITH GALE WRNGS                
(FOR GUSTS) OVER THE BAY AND VA/MD CSTL WATERS IN EFFECT FOR SUN                
AFTN/EVENING.                                                                   
WNDS/WAVES MORE MARGINAL FARTHER SOUTH AND IN THE BAY BUT                       
CONSIDERING HOW COLD IT WILL BE HAVE DECIDED TO GO A BIT STRONGER               
THAN THE MODEL DATA SUGGESTS. SEAS WILL NOT BUILD TOO HIGH GIVEN                
OFFSHORE WNW WIND DIRECTION (MAINLY 5-6 FT...BUT UP TO 7 FT                     
NORTH). SEAS/WINDS SUBSIDE LATER SUNDAY EVENG INTO MON MRNG...AND               
MUCH MORE TRANQUIL WEATHER SHOULD TAKE HOLD BY LATE MORNING/MIDDAY              
MONDAY.                                                                         
&&                                                                              
.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
MD...NONE.                                                                      
NC...NONE.                                                                      
VA...NONE.                                                                      
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO 12 PM EST SUNDAY FOR                 
     ANZ630>632-650-652-654-656.                                                
     GALE WARNING FROM 12 PM TO 10 PM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ630>632-654-            
     656.                                                                       
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM SUNDAY TO 6 AM EST MONDAY FOR               
     ANZ633-658.                                                                
     GALE WARNING FROM 12 PM SUNDAY TO 1 AM EST MONDAY FOR ANZ650-              
     652.                                                                       
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SYNOPSIS...BAJ                                                                  
NEAR TERM...BKH                                                                 
SHORT TERM...BAJ                                                                
LONG TERM...MAM                                                                 
AVIATION...JEF                                                                  
MARINE...JEF                                                                    
</pre> md                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
1043 PM EST SAT DEC 6 2008                                                      
.UPDATE...                                                                      
BIGGEST CHANGE ON UPDATE WAS TO DROP BLIZZARD WARNINGS FOR ALGER                
AND NRN SCHOOLCRAFT AND PUT UP WINTER STORM WARNINGS INTO SUNDAY                
MORNING AS STRONG NNW WINDS SHOWING SIGNS OF WEAKENING SOME WITH                
BUILDING RDG FROM THE WEST. STILL EXPECT ENHANCED LLVL CONV TO FOCUS            
HEAVIER LES BANDS INTO THESE COUNTIES OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY AND WIND            
GUSTS TO 30 MPH AT TIMES WILL ALSO CONTRIBUTE TO BLOWING/DRIFTING               
AND OCCASIONAL WHITEOUT CONDITIONS.                                             
ALSO DROPPED LES ADVISORY FOR BARAGA AS DRIER AIR HAS REALLY                    
DIMINISHED LES BANDS OVER WRN LAKE SUPERIOR.                                    
REST OF FCST STILL OF TRACK SO DIDN`T MAKE ANY OTHER BIG                        
CHANGES.                                                                        
&&                                                                              
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
20Z WATER VAPOR LOOP AND RUC 500MB HEIGHT ANALYSIS SHOWED RIDGING               
OVER THE WESTERN U.S. AND A TROUGH EXTENDING FROM HUDSON BAY                    
SOUTHWARD INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. UPPER MI SITS IN THE MIDDLE OF             
THE TROUGH AXIS...AND RIGHT UNDERNEATH A SHRTWV AT 500MB. DPVA                  
FORCING WITH THE SHRTWV COMBINED WITH LAKE EFFECT AND A COLD FRONT              
TO GENERATE A BAND OF HEAVY SNOWFALL THAT MOVED THROUGH UPPER MI                
EARLY THIS AFTN. THE COLD FRONT IS ASSOCIATED WITH A 1001 MB                    
LOW...LOCATED NOW NEAR DRUMMOND ISLAND. WITH THE SHRTWV OVER UPPER              
MI...THE CWA IS BEGINNING TO SEE DNVA AND LOWERING INVERSIONS...AS              
NOTED BY 12Z SOUNDINGS FROM INL AND CWPL. NUMEROUS LAKE EFFECT                  
MULTI-PARALLEL BANDS HAVE DEVELOPED WITH COLD AIR FLOWING IN                    
UNDERNEATH THE INVERSION...MOST INTENSE OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL AND              
EAST WITH THE LONGER FETCH OF NW WINDS. 850MB TEMPS PER RUC ANALYSIS            
RANGED FROM -20C WEST TO -15C EAST. DESPITE THE COLD AIRMASS...LAKE             
EFFECT IS DIMINISHING OVER WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR THANKS TO DRIER AIR            
ADVECTING IN OUT OF MN. THIS DRIER AIR IS NOTED BY THE 12Z INL AND              
CWPL SOUNDINGS HAVING PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES LESS THAN 0.10 OF AN            
INCH AND SFC DEWPOINTS BELOW ZERO F. THE DRIER AIR IS ALSO                      
ASSOCIATED WITH A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE THAT COVERS MANITOBA AND NORTH            
DAKOTA. FARTHER TO THE WEST...MID AND HIGH CLOUDS ARE MOVING ACROSS             
THE WESTERN DAKOTAS AND EASTERN MONTANA...ASSOCIATED WITH WARM                  
ADVECTION AHEAD OF A SHRTWV MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL BRITISH COLUMBIA             
AND ALBERTA.                                                                    
FOR LATEST SNOWFALL REPORTS AND BLOWING SNOW IMPACTS...SEE ARBLSRMQT.           
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT AND SUN)...                                                
UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS ARE PROGGED TO RISE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS             
THE TROUGH AXIS PUSHES OFF TO THE EAST. THEREFORE...INVERSIONS WILL             
CONTINUE TO LOWER ACROSS THE CWA WHILE DRIER AIR ADVECTS IN FROM THE            
WEST. THE COMBINATION OF BOTH FACTORS SHOULD ALLOW SNOW SHOWERS TO              
BECOME SCATTERED OVER WESTERN UPPER MI TONIGHT WITH MUCH LESS                   
ACCUMULATION. GOING END TIMES FOR THE WARNINGS FOR WESTERN UPPER                
MICHIGAN AT 7 PM EST THIS EVENING LOOK GOOD. FOR NORTH CENTRAL AND              
EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN...THE LONGER FETCH OF NW WINDS COMBINED WITH             
LAND BREEZES COMING OUT OF WESTERN UPPER MI SHOULD KEEP THE LAKE                
EFFECT GOING LONGER. IN ADDITION...UPSTREAM MOISTENING OFF LAKE                 
NIPIGON IS EXPECTED...AS IS OCCURRING ATTM. IN FACT...LAST FEW RUC              
RUNS AND OUR LOCAL WRF-ARW RUNS SUGGEST A SINGLE BAND FROM LAKE                 
NIPIGON...OFF THE TIP OF THE KEWEENAW AND INTO THE                              
ALGER/DELTA/MARQUETTE COUNTY LINES. THIS SEEMS REASONABLE AS THE                
LAND BREEZE DEVELOPS AND CONVERGES ON THE GENERAL NNW TO NW FLOW                
BEHIND THE DEPARTING SFC LOW. SHOULD THE BAND STAY IN PLACE...                  
SOUNDINGS AND MODEL DERIVED QPF AMOUNTS SUGGEST THAT 1 INCH PER HOUR            
RATES ARE REASONABLE. THEREFORE...WILL CONTINUE WARNINGS FOR                    
ALGER...DELTA AND MARQUETTE COUNTIES. SCHOOLCRAFT AND LUCE COUNTIES             
ARE A LITTLE MORE TROUBLESOME...AND WAS TEMPTED TO DROP THE WARNINGS            
AS ONLY THE MULTI-PARALLEL BANDS ARE EXPECTED THERE. HOWEVER...WITH             
THE WIND BLOWING THE SNOW THIS EVENING AND THE WARNING ONLY BEING UP            
FOR ABOUT 3 TO 4 HOURS SO FAR...HAVE DECIDED TO LEAVE IT UP FOR NOW.            
LAKE EFFECT OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL AND EAST SHOULD GRADUALLY                    
DIMINISH ON SUNDAY AS THE DRIER AIR OVER WESTERN UPPER MI BUILDS IN             
THERE. STILL MAINTAINED LIKELY POPS SUNDAY AFTN FOR NORTHERN                    
SCHOOLCRAFT/LUCE AS IT LOOKS LIKE THE LAKE NIPIGON ENHANCED BAND                
WILL SHIFT IN THERE. BESIDES THE LAKE EFFECT...ANOTHER POSSIBLE PCPN            
IMPACT IS SOME WARM ADVECTION -SN MOVING IN SUNDAY AFTN. THIS WARM              
ADVECTION PCPN IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE MID/HIGH CLOUD IN THE WESTERN             
DAKOTAS AND EASTERN MONTANA. THE CANADIAN MODEL WAS VERY AGGRESSIVE             
BRINGING THIS PCPN INTO UPPER MI...MAKING ITS WAY INTO THE CENTRAL              
U.P.. HOWEVER...IT IS AN OUTLIER AND PROBABLY TOO FAST GIVEN THAT               
SOUNDINGS SHOW PLENTY OF DRY AIR. INSTEAD...FOLLOWED THE GFS/LOCAL              
WRF-ARW RUNS WHICH ONLY BRING A HUNDREDTH OF QPF INTO FAR WESTERN               
UPPER MI.                                                                       
ANOTHER ISSUE FOR THE FORECAST IS TEMPS TONIGHT. IT APPEARS SOME OF             
THE WI BORDER AREAS COULD CLEAR OUT. GIVEN FRESH SNOW AND THE DRY               
AIRMASS MOVING IN...TEMPS WOULD PLUMMET ASSUMING WINDS BECOME CALM.             
LOWERED MINS ALONG THE WI BORDER OF GOGEBIC AND IRON COUNTIES TO 0              
TO 5 BELOW ZERO...BUT MAY NOT BE LOW ENOUGH IF CLOUDS CLEAR SOONER.             
FOR SUNDAY...WITH THE HIGH CLOUDS MOVING IN DURING THE AFTERNOON AND            
A COLD AIRMASS IN PLACE (850MB TEMPS ONLY REACHING -16C AT                      
18Z)...FOLLOWED SIMILARLY TO THE MIDNIGHT SHIFT OF STAYING WITH THE             
COLDER MAV GUIDANCE READINGS FOR HIGHS.                                         
.LONG TERM (SUN NIGHT THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY)...                                 
UPPER FLOW CONTINUES TO BE FROM THE NW THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH                  
TROUGHING IN THE AREA WITH MORE TROUGHING DIGGING TOWARDS THE AREA              
FOR TUE. NAM SHOWING 850-500 MB Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE AND MOISTURE               
MOVING THROUGH THE AREA SUN NIGHT INTO MON MORNING BEFORE BOTH MOVE             
OUT BY MON AFTERNOON. NAM SHOWING ISENTROPIC LIFT ON I280K-I295K                
SURFACES WITH SOME MOISTURE MOVING ACROSS THE CWA SUN NIGHT WITH THE            
MOISTURE MOVING OUT MON MORNING EXCEPT IN THE LOWEST LEVELS ON I280K            
SURFACE WHICH LINGERS. GFS SHOWS SOME ISENTROPIC LIFT ON I280K                  
SURFACE WITH MOISTURE AS WELL SUN NIGHT AND THE MOISTURE MOVES OUT              
ON MON. BASICALLY...LOOKS LIKE RIGHT NOW...THIS SYSTEM FOR SUN NIGHT            
GOES MOSTLY TO THE SOUTH OF CWA AND DOES NOT LOOK LIKE HEADLINES                
WILL BE NEEDED. ONLY EXCEPTION AND WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED IS LUCE              
AND SCHOOLCRAFT COUNTIES WHERE THERE COULD BE A LAKE MICHIGAN BAND              
THAT FORMS FROM THE SOUTH WINDS THAT OCCUR AND THIS COULD POSSIBLY              
BE ACROSS THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF THOSE TWO COUNTIES. IT IS COLD                
ENOUGH FOR LAKE EFFECT TO FORM AND WITH WINDS CONVERGING ACROSS                 
EASTERN LAKE MICHIGAN...A LONG FETCH WOULD FORM. ONLY THING IS THERE            
COULD BE ENOUGH OF A LAND BREEZE TO PUSH THIS BAND A BIT FURTHER                
EAST AND KEEP OUT OF THOSE TWO COUNTIES AS WELL. THE LAND BREEZE                
COULD ALSO DISRUPT THE BAND AS WELL. WILL MENTION THIS IN THE HWO               
PRODUCT FOR NOW AND NOT HIGHLIGHT...BUT THIS POSSIBILITY OF A HEAVY             
LAKE EFFECT BAND WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED.                                       
CHANGE FOR THIS FORECAST WAS ALSO TO GO LIKELY POPS LATE SUNDAY                 
NIGHT FOR ALL OF CWA WITH DEEP MOISTURE. FOR TUESDAY...SIGNIFICANT              
TROUGH DIGGING CAUSES A SYSTEM TO COME UP FROM THE SW. SOUTHERN CWA             
IS ON THE NORTHERN END OF THIS SYSTEM WITH LAKE EFFECT ACROSS THE               
REST OF THE CWA. SIGNIFICANT SYSTEM SNOW WOULD BE ACROSS THE                    
SOUTHERN CWA AND BUMPED POPS UP TO LIKELY FOR THIS AREA. IF THIS                
SYSTEM COMES A BIT FURTHER NORTH...THEN WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED AS              
WELL. SUBSEQUENT MODEL RUNS WILL HELP TO DETERMINE IF THIS SYSTEM               
WILL AFFECT US MORE WITH HEAVIER SNOW OR NOT.                                   
IN THE EXTENDED...GFS...ECMWF AND CANADIAN ALL SHOW A 500 MB TROUGH             
ACROSS THE CENTRAL U.S. WITH RIDGING IN THE WESTERN U.S. 00Z WED.               
MORE TROUGHING COMES IN FOR 00Z THU AND REMAINS THROUGH 00Z SUN.                
LOOKS PRETTY ACTIVE IN THE EXTENDED AND LOOKS LIKE REPEAT LAKE                  
EFFECT EVENT EPISODES WITH ALBERTA CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEMS MOVING                  
THROUGH EVERY SO OFTEN. BROADBRUSHED THE EXTENDED AND KEPT SOME POPS            
IN NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR EVERY DAY WITH COLD ENOUGH AIR AROUND AND SOME            
SHORTWAVES NEAR THE AREA AS WELL. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO STAY BELOW               
NORMAL.USED THE ECMWF AS GUIDANCE FOR THIS EXTENDED FORECAST AND DID            
NOT STRAY TOO MUCH FROM IT. CLIPPER SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH WED NIGHT              
AND THIS LOOKS TO BE THE BEST CHANCE FOR WIDEPSREAD SNOW THEN.                  
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION (FOR THE 00Z TAF ISSUANCE)...                                         
MULTI-PARALLEL BAND LAKE EFFECT SNOW WINDING DOWN FROM THE WEST THIS            
EVENING. VERY DRY AIR UPSTREAM GREATLY DIMINISHING LES OVER WRN LAKE            
SUPERIOR THIS EVENING. HAVE DECIDED TO GO WITH VFR VBSY AT KCMX                 
THROUGH THE PERIOD BUT WILL KEEP MVFR CIGS UNTIL WINDS BACK SW BY               
20Z SUN.                                                                        
NNW WINDS WILL MAINTAIN MVFR TO OCCASIONAL IFR CONDITIONS                       
AT KSAW THIS EVENING AS THEY REMAIN ON THE EDGE OF INTENSE LES                  
BANDS. WINDS BACKING NW BY LATE EVENING WILL QUICKLY IMPROVE VSBY TO            
VFR. WINDS BACKING W LATE TONIGHT WILL BREAK UP MVFR CIGS AND KEEP              
SKIES VFR THROUGH THE REST OF THE FCST PD.                                      
&&                                                                              
.MARINE (FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)...                       
NORTH GALES OF UP TO 45 KNOTS...STRONGEST ON EASTERN SUPERIOR...WILL            
DIMINISH BELOW 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE                 
BUILDS IN FROM THE DAKOTAS. EXPECT WINDS TO GENERALLY REMAIN AT OR              
BELOW 30 KNOTS THEN THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. ON TUESDAY...AN AREA OF               
LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS IS EXPECTED TO MOVE            
NORTHEAST...REACHING THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES ON WEDNESDAY. A PERIOD             
OF NORTH GALES TO 35 KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE BEHIND THE LOW OVER EASTERN             
LAKE SUPERIOR TUESDAY NIGHT...THEN WINDS WILL DROP BACK DOWN BELOW              
30 KNOTS FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.                                            
&&                                                                              
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
UPPER MICHIGAN...                                                               
  WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 11 AM EST SUNDAY FOR MIZ006-085.                   
  WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EST SUNDAY FOR MIZ007.                       
  WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST SUNDAY FOR MIZ005-013-014.                
LAKE SUPERIOR...                                                                
  GALE WARNING UNTIL 3 AM EST SUNDAY FOR LSZ248>251-265>267.                    
  GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR LSZ263-264.                     
  GALE WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR LSZ242>245.                       
LAKE MICHIGAN...                                                                
  GALE WARNING UNTIL 3 AM EST SUNDAY FOR LMZ221-250.                            
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
UPDATE...VOSS                                                                   
SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM...AJ                                                        
LONG TERM...GJM                                                                 
AVIATION...JV                                                                   
MARINE...AJ                                                                     
</pre> mi                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
802 PM EST SAT DEC 6 2008                                                       
UPDATED FOR 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION                                             
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
20Z WATER VAPOR LOOP AND RUC 500MB HEIGHT ANALYSIS SHOWED RIDGING               
OVER THE WESTERN U.S. AND A TROUGH EXTENDING FROM HUDSON BAY                    
SOUTHWARD INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. UPPER MI SITS IN THE MIDDLE OF             
THE TROUGH AXIS...AND RIGHT UNDERNEATH A SHRTWV AT 500MB. DPVA                  
FORCING WITH THE SHRTWV COMBINED WITH LAKE EFFECT AND A COLD FRONT              
TO GENERATE A BAND OF HEAVY SNOWFALL THAT MOVED THROUGH UPPER MI                
EARLY THIS AFTN. THE COLD FRONT IS ASSOCIATED WITH A 1001 MB                    
LOW...LOCATED NOW NEAR DRUMMOND ISLAND. WITH THE SHRTWV OVER UPPER              
MI...THE CWA IS BEGINNING TO SEE DNVA AND LOWERING INVERSIONS...AS              
NOTED BY 12Z SOUNDINGS FROM INL AND CWPL. NUMEROUS LAKE EFFECT                  
MULTI-PARALLEL BANDS HAVE DEVELOPED WITH COLD AIR FLOWING IN                    
UNDERNEATH THE INVERSION...MOST INTENSE OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL AND              
EAST WITH THE LONGER FETCH OF NW WINDS. 850MB TEMPS PER RUC ANALYSIS            
RANGED FROM -20C WEST TO -15C EAST. DESPITE THE COLD AIRMASS...LAKE             
EFFECT IS DIMINISHING OVER WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR THANKS TO DRIER AIR            
ADVECTING IN OUT OF MN. THIS DRIER AIR IS NOTED BY THE 12Z INL AND              
CWPL SOUNDINGS HAVING PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES LESS THAN 0.10 OF AN            
INCH AND SFC DEWPOINTS BELOW ZERO F. THE DRIER AIR IS ALSO                      
ASSOCIATED WITH A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE THAT COVERS MANITOBA AND NORTH            
DAKOTA. FARTHER TO THE WEST...MID AND HIGH CLOUDS ARE MOVING ACROSS             
THE WESTERN DAKOTAS AND EASTERN MONTANA...ASSOCIATED WITH WARM                  
ADVECTION AHEAD OF A SHRTWV MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL BRITISH COLUMBIA             
AND ALBERTA.                                                                    
FOR LATEST SNOWFALL REPORTS AND BLOWING SNOW IMPACTS...SEE ARBLSRMQT.           
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT AND SUN)...                                                
UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS ARE PROGGED TO RISE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS             
THE TROUGH AXIS PUSHES OFF TO THE EAST. THEREFORE...INVERSIONS WILL             
CONTINUE TO LOWER ACROSS THE CWA WHILE DRIER AIR ADVECTS IN FROM THE            
WEST. THE COMBINATION OF BOTH FACTORS SHOULD ALLOW SNOW SHOWERS TO              
BECOME SCATTERED OVER WESTERN UPPER MI TONIGHT WITH MUCH LESS                   
ACCUMULATION. GOING END TIMES FOR THE WARNINGS FOR WESTERN UPPER                
MICHIGAN AT 7 PM EST THIS EVENING LOOK GOOD. FOR NORTH CENTRAL AND              
EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN...THE LONGER FETCH OF NW WINDS COMBINED WITH             
LAND BREEZES COMING OUT OF WESTERN UPPER MI SHOULD KEEP THE LAKE                
EFFECT GOING LONGER. IN ADDITION...UPSTREAM MOISTENING OFF LAKE                 
NIPIGON IS EXPECTED...AS IS OCCURRING ATTM. IN FACT...LAST FEW RUC              
RUNS AND OUR LOCAL WRF-ARW RUNS SUGGEST A SINGLE BAND FROM LAKE                 
NIPIGON...OFF THE TIP OF THE KEWEENAW AND INTO THE                              
ALGER/DELTA/MARQUETTE COUNTY LINES. THIS SEEMS REASONABLE AS THE                
LAND BREEZE DEVELOPS AND CONVERGES ON THE GENERAL NNW TO NW FLOW                
BEHIND THE DEPARTING SFC LOW. SHOULD THE BAND STAY IN PLACE...                  
SOUNDINGS AND MODEL DERIVED QPF AMOUNTS SUGGEST THAT 1 INCH PER HOUR            
RATES ARE REASONABLE. THEREFORE...WILL CONTINUE WARNINGS FOR                    
ALGER...DELTA AND MARQUETTE COUNTIES. SCHOOLCRAFT AND LUCE COUNTIES             
ARE A LITTLE MORE TROUBLESOME...AND WAS TEMPTED TO DROP THE WARNINGS            
AS ONLY THE MULTI-PARALLEL BANDS ARE EXPECTED THERE. HOWEVER...WITH             
THE WIND BLOWING THE SNOW THIS EVENING AND THE WARNING ONLY BEING UP            
FOR ABOUT 3 TO 4 HOURS SO FAR...HAVE DECIDED TO LEAVE IT UP FOR NOW.            
LAKE EFFECT OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL AND EAST SHOULD GRADUALLY                    
DIMINISH ON SUNDAY AS THE DRIER AIR OVER WESTERN UPPER MI BUILDS IN             
THERE. STILL MAINTAINED LIKELY POPS SUNDAY AFTN FOR NORTHERN                    
SCHOOLCRAFT/LUCE AS IT LOOKS LIKE THE LAKE NIPIGON ENHANCED BAND                
WILL SHIFT IN THERE. BESIDES THE LAKE EFFECT...ANOTHER POSSIBLE PCPN            
IMPACT IS SOME WARM ADVECTION -SN MOVING IN SUNDAY AFTN. THIS WARM              
ADVECTION PCPN IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE MID/HIGH CLOUD IN THE WESTERN             
DAKOTAS AND EASTERN MONTANA. THE CANADIAN MODEL WAS VERY AGGRESSIVE             
BRINGING THIS PCPN INTO UPPER MI...MAKING ITS WAY INTO THE CENTRAL              
U.P.. HOWEVER...IT IS AN OUTLIER AND PROBABLY TOO FAST GIVEN THAT               
SOUNDINGS SHOW PLENTY OF DRY AIR. INSTEAD...FOLLOWED THE GFS/LOCAL              
WRF-ARW RUNS WHICH ONLY BRING A HUNDREDTH OF QPF INTO FAR WESTERN               
UPPER MI.                                                                       
ANOTHER ISSUE FOR THE FORECAST IS TEMPS TONIGHT. IT APPEARS SOME OF             
THE WI BORDER AREAS COULD CLEAR OUT. GIVEN FRESH SNOW AND THE DRY               
AIRMASS MOVING IN...TEMPS WOULD PLUMMET ASSUMING WINDS BECOME CALM.             
LOWERED MINS ALONG THE WI BORDER OF GOGEBIC AND IRON COUNTIES TO 0              
TO 5 BELOW ZERO...BUT MAY NOT BE LOW ENOUGH IF CLOUDS CLEAR SOONER.             
FOR SUNDAY...WITH THE HIGH CLOUDS MOVING IN DURING THE AFTERNOON AND            
A COLD AIRMASS IN PLACE (850MB TEMPS ONLY REACHING -16C AT                      
18Z)...FOLLOWED SIMILARLY TO THE MIDNIGHT SHIFT OF STAYING WITH THE             
COLDER MAV GUIDANCE READINGS FOR HIGHS.                                         
.LONG TERM (SUN NIGHT THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY)...                                 
UPPER FLOW CONTINUES TO BE FROM THE NW THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH                  
TROUGHING IN THE AREA WITH MORE TROUGHING DIGGING TOWARDS THE AREA              
FOR TUE. NAM SHOWING 850-500 MB Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE AND MOISTURE               
MOVING THROUGH THE AREA SUN NIGHT INTO MON MORNING BEFORE BOTH MOVE             
OUT BY MON AFTERNOON. NAM SHOWING ISENTROPIC LIFT ON I280K-I295K                
SURFACES WITH SOME MOISTURE MOVING ACROSS THE CWA SUN NIGHT WITH THE            
MOISTURE MOVING OUT MON MORNING EXCEPT IN THE LOWEST LEVELS ON I280K            
SURFACE WHICH LINGERS. GFS SHOWS SOME ISENTROPIC LIFT ON I280K                  
SURFACE WITH MOISTURE AS WELL SUN NIGHT AND THE MOISTURE MOVES OUT              
ON MON. BASICALLY...LOOKS LIKE RIGHT NOW...THIS SYSTEM FOR SUN NIGHT            
GOES MOSTLY TO THE SOUTH OF CWA AND DOES NOT LOOK LIKE HEADLINES                
WILL BE NEEDED. ONLY EXCEPTION AND WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED IS LUCE              
AND SCHOOLCRAFT COUNTIES WHERE THERE COULD BE A LAKE MICHIGAN BAND              
THAT FORMS FROM THE SOUTH WINDS THAT OCCUR AND THIS COULD POSSIBLY              
BE ACROSS THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF THOSE TWO COUNTIES. IT IS COLD                
ENOUGH FOR LAKE EFFECT TO FORM AND WITH WINDS CONVERGING ACROSS                 
EASTERN LAKE MICHIGAN...A LONG FETCH WOULD FORM. ONLY THING IS THERE            
COULD BE ENOUGH OF A LAND BREEZE TO PUSH THIS BAND A BIT FURTHER                
EAST AND KEEP OUT OF THOSE TWO COUNTIES AS WELL. THE LAND BREEZE                
COULD ALSO DISRUPT THE BAND AS WELL. WILL MENTION THIS IN THE HWO               
PRODUCT FOR NOW AND NOT HIGHLIGHT...BUT THIS POSSIBILITY OF A HEAVY             
LAKE EFFECT BAND WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED.                                       
CHANGE FOR THIS FORECAST WAS ALSO TO GO LIKELY POPS LATE SUNDAY                 
NIGHT FOR ALL OF CWA WITH DEEP MOISTURE. FOR TUESDAY...SIGNIFICANT              
TROUGH DIGGING CAUSES A SYSTEM TO COME UP FROM THE SW. SOUTHERN CWA             
IS ON THE NORTHERN END OF THIS SYSTEM WITH LAKE EFFECT ACROSS THE               
REST OF THE CWA. SIGNIFICANT SYSTEM SNOW WOULD BE ACROSS THE                    
SOUTHERN CWA AND BUMPED POPS UP TO LIKELY FOR THIS AREA. IF THIS                
SYSTEM COMES A BIT FURTHER NORTH...THEN WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED AS              
WELL. SUBSEQUENT MODEL RUNS WILL HELP TO DETERMINE IF THIS SYSTEM               
WILL AFFECT US MORE WITH HEAVIER SNOW OR NOT.                                   
IN THE EXTENDED...GFS...ECMWF AND CANADIAN ALL SHOW A 500 MB TROUGH             
ACROSS THE CENTRAL U.S. WITH RIDGING IN THE WESTERN U.S. 00Z WED.               
MORE TROUGHING COMES IN FOR 00Z THU AND REMAINS THROUGH 00Z SUN.                
LOOKS PRETTY ACTIVE IN THE EXTENDED AND LOOKS LIKE REPEAT LAKE                  
EFFECT EVENT EPISODES WITH ALBERTA CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEMS MOVING                  
THROUGH EVERY SO OFTEN. BROADBRUSHED THE EXTENDED AND KEPT SOME POPS            
IN NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR EVERY DAY WITH COLD ENOUGH AIR AROUND AND SOME            
SHORTWAVES NEAR THE AREA AS WELL. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO STAY BELOW               
NORMAL.USED THE ECMWF AS GUIDANCE FOR THIS EXTENDED FORECAST AND DID            
NOT STRAY TOO MUCH FROM IT. CLIPPER SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH WED NIGHT              
AND THIS LOOKS TO BE THE BEST CHANCE FOR WIDEPSREAD SNOW THEN.                  
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION (FOR THE 00Z TAF ISSUANCE)...                                         
MULTI-PARALLEL BAND LAKE EFFECT SNOW WINDING DOWN FROM THE WEST THIS            
EVENING. VERY DRY AIR UPSTREAM GREATLY DIMINISHING LES OVER WRN LAKE            
SUPERIOR THIS EVENING. HAVE DECIDED TO GO WITH VFR VBSY AT KCMX                 
THROUGH THE PERIOD BUT WILL KEEP MVFR CIGS UNTIL WINDS BACK SW BY               
20Z SUN.                                                                        
NNW WINDS WILL MAINTAIN MVFR TO OCCASIONAL IFR CONDITIONS                       
AT KSAW THIS EVENING AS THEY REMAIN ON THE EDGE OF INTENSE LES                  
BANDS. WINDS BACKING NW BY LATE EVENING WILL QUICKLY IMPROVE VSBY TO            
VFR. WINDS BACKING W LATE TONIGHT WILL BREAK UP MVFR CIGS AND KEEP              
SKIES VFR THROUGH THE REST OF THE FCST PD.                                      
&&                                                                              
.MARINE (FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)...                       
NORTH GALES OF UP TO 45 KNOTS...STRONGEST ON EASTERN SUPERIOR...WILL            
DIMINISH BELOW 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE                 
BUILDS IN FROM THE DAKOTAS. EXPECT WINDS TO GENERALLY REMAIN AT OR              
BELOW 30 KNOTS THEN THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. ON TUESDAY...AN AREA OF               
LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS IS EXPECTED TO MOVE            
NORTHEAST...REACHING THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES ON WEDNESDAY. A PERIOD             
OF NORTH GALES TO 35 KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE BEHIND THE LOW OVER EASTERN             
LAKE SUPERIOR TUESDAY NIGHT...THEN WINDS WILL DROP BACK DOWN BELOW              
30 KNOTS FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.                                            
&&                                                                              
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
UPPER MICHIGAN...                                                               
  BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EST SUNDAY FOR MIZ006-085.                       
  BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MIZ001-003.                  
  WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST /6 PM CST/ THIS EVENING FOR               
     MIZ002-009.                                                                
  WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EST SUNDAY FOR MIZ007.                       
  WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST SUNDAY FOR MIZ005-013-014.                
  LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MIZ084.             
  LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST SUNDAY FOR MIZ004.                   
LAKE SUPERIOR...                                                                
  GALE WARNING UNTIL 3 AM EST SUNDAY FOR LSZ248>251-265>267.                    
  GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR LSZ263-264.                     
  GALE WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR LSZ242>245.                       
LAKE MICHIGAN...                                                                
  GALE WARNING UNTIL 3 AM EST SUNDAY FOR LMZ221-250.                            
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM...AJ                                                        
LONG TERM...GJM                                                                 
AVIATION...JV                                                                   
MARINE...AJ                                                                     
</pre> mi                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
442 PM EST SAT DEC 6 2008                                                       
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
20Z WATER VAPOR LOOP AND RUC 500MB HEIGHT ANALYSIS SHOWED RIDGING               
OVER THE WESTERN U.S. AND A TROUGH EXTENDING FROM HUDSON BAY                    
SOUTHWARD INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. UPPER MI SITS IN THE MIDDLE OF             
THE TROUGH AXIS...AND RIGHT UNDERNEATH A SHRTWV AT 500MB. DPVA                  
FORCING WITH THE SHRTWV COMBINED WITH LAKE EFFECT AND A COLD FRONT              
TO GENERATE A BAND OF HEAVY SNOWFALL THAT MOVED THROUGH UPPER MI                
EARLY THIS AFTN. THE COLD FRONT IS ASSOCIATED WITH A 1001 MB                    
LOW...LOCATED NOW NEAR DRUMMOND ISLAND. WITH THE SHRTWV OVER UPPER              
MI...THE CWA IS BEGINNING TO SEE DNVA AND LOWERING INVERSIONS...AS              
NOTED BY 12Z SOUNDINGS FROM INL AND CWPL. NUMEROUS LAKE EFFECT                  
MULTI-PARALLEL BANDS HAVE DEVELOPED WITH COLD AIR FLOWING IN                    
UNDERNEATH THE INVERSION...MOST INTENSE OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL AND              
EAST WITH THE LONGER FETCH OF NW WINDS. 850MB TEMPS PER RUC ANALYSIS            
RANGED FROM -20C WEST TO -15C EAST. DESPITE THE COLD AIRMASS...LAKE             
EFFECT IS DIMINISHING OVER WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR THANKS TO DRIER AIR            
ADVECTING IN OUT OF MN. THIS DRIER AIR IS NOTED BY THE 12Z INL AND              
CWPL SOUNDINGS HAVING PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES LESS THAN 0.10 OF AN            
INCH AND SFC DEWPOINTS BELOW ZERO F. THE DRIER AIR IS ALSO                      
ASSOCIATED WITH A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE THAT COVERS MANITOBA AND NORTH            
DAKOTA. FARTHER TO THE WEST...MID AND HIGH CLOUDS ARE MOVING ACROSS             
THE WESTERN DAKOTAS AND EASTERN MONTANA...ASSOCIATED WITH WARM                  
ADVECTION AHEAD OF A SHRTWV MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL BRITISH COLUMBIA             
AND ALBERTA.                                                                    
FOR LATEST SNOWFALL REPORTS AND BLOWING SNOW IMPACTS...SEE ARBLSRMQT.           
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT AND SUN)...                                                
UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS ARE PROGGED TO RISE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS             
THE TROUGH AXIS PUSHES OFF TO THE EAST. THEREFORE...INVERSIONS WILL             
CONTINUE TO LOWER ACROSS THE CWA WHILE DRIER AIR ADVECTS IN FROM THE            
WEST. THE COMBINATION OF BOTH FACTORS SHOULD ALLOW SNOW SHOWERS TO              
BECOME SCATTERED OVER WESTERN UPPER MI TONIGHT WITH MUCH LESS                   
ACCUMULATION. GOING END TIMES FOR THE WARNINGS FOR WESTERN UPPER                
MICHIGAN AT 7 PM EST THIS EVENING LOOK GOOD. FOR NORTH CENTRAL AND              
EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN...THE LONGER FETCH OF NW WINDS COMBINED WITH             
LAND BREEZES COMING OUT OF WESTERN UPPER MI SHOULD KEEP THE LAKE                
EFFECT GOING LONGER. IN ADDITION...UPSTREAM MOISTENING OFF LAKE                 
NIPIGON IS EXPECTED...AS IS OCCURRING ATTM. IN FACT...LAST FEW RUC              
RUNS AND OUR LOCAL WRF-ARW RUNS SUGGEST A SINGLE BAND FROM LAKE                 
NIPIGON...OFF THE TIP OF THE KEWEENAW AND INTO THE                              
ALGER/DELTA/MARQUETTE COUNTY LINES. THIS SEEMS REASONABLE AS THE                
LAND BREEZE DEVELOPS AND CONVERGES ON THE GENERAL NNW TO NW FLOW                
BEHIND THE DEPARTING SFC LOW. SHOULD THE BAND STAY IN PLACE...                  
SOUNDINGS AND MODEL DERIVED QPF AMOUNTS SUGGEST THAT 1 INCH PER HOUR            
RATES ARE REASONABLE. THEREFORE...WILL CONTINUE WARNINGS FOR                    
ALGER...DELTA AND MARQUETTE COUNTIES. SCHOOLCRAFT AND LUCE COUNTIES             
ARE A LITTLE MORE TROUBLESOME...AND WAS TEMPTED TO DROP THE WARNINGS            
AS ONLY THE MULTI-PARALLEL BANDS ARE EXPECTED THERE. HOWEVER...WITH             
THE WIND BLOWING THE SNOW THIS EVENING AND THE WARNING ONLY BEING UP            
FOR ABOUT 3 TO 4 HOURS SO FAR...HAVE DECIDED TO LEAVE IT UP FOR NOW.            
LAKE EFFECT OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL AND EAST SHOULD GRADUALLY                    
DIMINISH ON SUNDAY AS THE DRIER AIR OVER WESTERN UPPER MI BUILDS IN             
THERE. STILL MAINTAINED LIKELY POPS SUNDAY AFTN FOR NORTHERN                    
SCHOOLCRAFT/LUCE AS IT LOOKS LIKE THE LAKE NIPIGON ENHANCED BAND                
WILL SHIFT IN THERE. BESIDES THE LAKE EFFECT...ANOTHER POSSIBLE PCPN            
IMPACT IS SOME WARM ADVECTION -SN MOVING IN SUNDAY AFTN. THIS WARM              
ADVECTION PCPN IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE MID/HIGH CLOUD IN THE WESTERN             
DAKOTAS AND EASTERN MONTANA. THE CANADIAN MODEL WAS VERY AGGRESSIVE             
BRINGING THIS PCPN INTO UPPER MI...MAKING ITS WAY INTO THE CENTRAL              
U.P.. HOWEVER...IT IS AN OUTLIER AND PROBABLY TOO FAST GIVEN THAT               
SOUNDINGS SHOW PLENTY OF DRY AIR. INSTEAD...FOLLOWED THE GFS/LOCAL              
WRF-ARW RUNS WHICH ONLY BRING A HUNDREDTH OF QPF INTO FAR WESTERN               
UPPER MI.                                                                       
ANOTHER ISSUE FOR THE FORECAST IS TEMPS TONIGHT. IT APPEARS SOME OF             
THE WI BORDER AREAS COULD CLEAR OUT. GIVEN FRESH SNOW AND THE DRY               
AIRMASS MOVING IN...TEMPS WOULD PLUMMET ASSUMING WINDS BECOME CALM.             
LOWERED MINS ALONG THE WI BORDER OF GOGEBIC AND IRON COUNTIES TO 0              
TO 5 BELOW ZERO...BUT MAY NOT BE LOW ENOUGH IF CLOUDS CLEAR SOONER.             
FOR SUNDAY...WITH THE HIGH CLOUDS MOVING IN DURING THE AFTERNOON AND            
A COLD AIRMASS IN PLACE (850MB TEMPS ONLY REACHING -16C AT                      
18Z)...FOLLOWED SIMILARLY TO THE MIDNIGHT SHIFT OF STAYING WITH THE             
COLDER MAV GUIDANCE READINGS FOR HIGHS.                                         
.LONG TERM (SUN NIGHT THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY)...                                 
UPPER FLOW CONTINUES TO BE FROM THE NW THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH                  
TROUGHING IN THE AREA WITH MORE TROUGHING DIGGING TOWARDS THE AREA              
FOR TUE. NAM SHOWING 850-500 MB Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE AND MOISTURE               
MOVING THROUGH THE AREA SUN NIGHT INTO MON MORNING BEFORE BOTH MOVE             
OUT BY MON AFTERNOON. NAM SHOWING ISENTROPIC LIFT ON I280K-I295K                
SURFACES WITH SOME MOISTURE MOVING ACROSS THE CWA SUN NIGHT WITH THE            
MOISTURE MOVING OUT MON MORNING EXCEPT IN THE LOWEST LEVELS ON I280K            
SURFACE WHICH LINGERS. GFS SHOWS SOME ISENTROPIC LIFT ON I280K                  
SURFACE WITH MOISTURE AS WELL SUN NIGHT AND THE MOISTURE MOVES OUT              
ON MON. BASICALLY...LOOKS LIKE RIGHT NOW...THIS SYSTEM FOR SUN NIGHT            
GOES MOSTLY TO THE SOUTH OF CWA AND DOES NOT LOOK LIKE HEADLINES                
WILL BE NEEDED. ONLY EXCEPTION AND WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED IS LUCE              
AND SCHOOLCRAFT COUNTIES WHERE THERE COULD BE A LAKE MICHIGAN BAND              
THAT FORMS FROM THE SOUTH WINDS THAT OCCUR AND THIS COULD POSSIBLY              
BE ACROSS THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF THOSE TWO COUNTIES. IT IS COLD                
ENOUGH FOR LAKE EFFECT TO FORM AND WITH WINDS CONVERGING ACROSS                 
EASTERN LAKE MICHIGAN...A LONG FETCH WOULD FORM. ONLY THING IS THERE            
COULD BE ENOUGH OF A LAND BREEZE TO PUSH THIS BAND A BIT FURTHER                
EAST AND KEEP OUT OF THOSE TWO COUNTIES AS WELL. THE LAND BREEZE                
COULD ALSO DISRUPT THE BAND AS WELL. WILL MENTION THIS IN THE HWO               
PRODUCT FOR NOW AND NOT HIGHLIGHT...BUT THIS POSSIBILITY OF A HEAVY             
LAKE EFFECT BAND WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED.                                       
CHANGE FOR THIS FORECAST WAS ALSO TO GO LIKELY POPS LATE SUNDAY                 
NIGHT FOR ALL OF CWA WITH DEEP MOISTURE. FOR TUESDAY...SIGNIFICANT              
TROUGH DIGGING CAUSES A SYSTEM TO COME UP FROM THE SW. SOUTHERN CWA             
IS ON THE NORTHERN END OF THIS SYSTEM WITH LAKE EFFECT ACROSS THE               
REST OF THE CWA. SIGNIFICANT SYSTEM SNOW WOULD BE ACROSS THE                    
SOUTHERN CWA AND BUMPED POPS UP TO LIKELY FOR THIS AREA. IF THIS                
SYSTEM COMES A BIT FURTHER NORTH...THEN WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED AS              
WELL. SUBSEQUENT MODEL RUNS WILL HELP TO DETERMINE IF THIS SYSTEM               
WILL AFFECT US MORE WITH HEAVIER SNOW OR NOT.                                   
IN THE EXTENDED...GFS...ECMWF AND CANADIAN ALL SHOW A 500 MB TROUGH             
ACROSS THE CENTRAL U.S. WITH RIDGING IN THE WESTERN U.S. 00Z WED.               
MORE TROUGHING COMES IN FOR 00Z THU AND REMAINS THROUGH 00Z SUN.                
LOOKS PRETTY ACTIVE IN THE EXTENDED AND LOOKS LIKE REPEAT LAKE                  
EFFECT EVENT EPISODES WITH ALBERTA CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEMS MOVING                  
THROUGH EVERY SO OFTEN. BROADBRUSHED THE EXTENDED AND KEPT SOME POPS            
IN NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR EVERY DAY WITH COLD ENOUGH AIR AROUND AND SOME            
SHORTWAVES NEAR THE AREA AS WELL. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO STAY BELOW               
NORMAL.USED THE ECMWF AS GUIDANCE FOR THIS EXTENDED FORECAST AND DID            
NOT STRAY TOO MUCH FROM IT. CLIPPER SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH WED NIGHT              
AND THIS LOOKS TO BE THE BEST CHANCE FOR WIDEPSREAD SNOW THEN.                  
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION (FOR THE 18Z TAF ISSUANCE)...                                         
ARCTIC FRONT HAS PUSHED THROUGH BOTH TAF SITES...WITH BLUSTERY                  
MULTI-PARALLEL BAND LAKE EFFECT SNOW SET UP IN ITS WAKE. WOULD                  
EXPECT CONDITIONS TO BOUNCE BACK AND FORTH BTWN IFR AND LIFR AND                
BOTH TAF SITES THROUGH THE REST OF THE AFTN AS BANDS MOVE THROUGH.              
THERE IS A CHANCE VSBYS COULD DROP TO VLIFR BUT NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO              
INCLUDE EVEN IN A TEMPO GROUP ATTM. TONIGHT...A SINGLE BAND OF SNOW             
FROM LAKE NIPIGON ACROSS CENTRAL LAKE SUPERIOR MAY BECOME STATIONARY            
FOR A FEW HOURS AT SAW...WITH ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO AT LEAST INCLUDE             
LIFR CONDITIONS. OTHERWISE...IMPROVEMENT IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE                
NIGHT AS WINDS DIMINISH AND DRIER AIR WORKS IN FROM MN...WITH VSBYS             
REACHING VFR BY SUNRISE. CIGS WILL REACH VFR LATE SUNDAY MORNING AS             
THE DRIER AIR AND WINDS BACKING TOWARDS THE WEST AND EVENTUALLY SW              
HELP TO BREAK UP THE CLOUDS.                                                    
&&                                                                              
.MARINE (FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)...                       
NORTH GALES OF UP TO 45 KNOTS...STRONGEST ON EASTERN SUPERIOR...WILL            
DIMINISH BELOW 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE                 
BUILDS IN FROM THE DAKOTAS. EXPECT WINDS TO GENERALLY REMAIN AT OR              
BELOW 30 KNOTS THEN THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. ON TUESDAY...AN AREA OF               
LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS IS EXPECTED TO MOVE            
NORTHEAST...REACHING THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES ON WEDNESDAY. A PERIOD             
OF NORTH GALES TO 35 KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE BEHIND THE LOW OVER EASTERN             
LAKE SUPERIOR TUESDAY NIGHT...THEN WINDS WILL DROP BACK DOWN BELOW              
30 KNOTS FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.                                            
&&                                                                              
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
UPPER MICHIGAN...                                                               
  BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EST SUNDAY FOR MIZ006-085.                       
  BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MIZ001-003.                  
  WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST /6 PM CST/ THIS EVENING FOR               
     MIZ002-009.                                                                
  WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EST SUNDAY FOR MIZ007.                       
  WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST SUNDAY FOR MIZ005-013-014.                
  LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MIZ084.             
  LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST SUNDAY FOR MIZ004.                   
LAKE SUPERIOR...                                                                
  GALE WARNING UNTIL 3 AM EST SUNDAY FOR LSZ248>251-265>267.                    
  GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR LSZ263-264.                     
  GALE WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR LSZ242>245.                       
LAKE MICHIGAN...                                                                
  GALE WARNING UNTIL 3 AM EST SUNDAY FOR LMZ221-250.                            
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM...AJ                                                        
LONG TERM...GJM                                                                 
AVIATION...AJ                                                                   
MARINE...AJ                                                                     
</pre> mi                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
1242 PM EST SAT DEC 6 2008                                                      
UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE                                
.UPDATE...                                                                      
GOING FORECAST LOOKS IN PRETTY GOOD SHAPE BASED ON THE LAST FEW                 
HOURS OF RADAR IMAGERY. ARCTIC/POLAR FRONT MOVING SE THROUGH UPPER              
MI ABOUT AN HOUR TO TWO FASTER COMPARED TO PREVIOUS RUNS...BUT IT               
WORKS OUT ALRIGHT AS THE STRONGER WINDS SEEM TO BE LAGGING THE                  
ARCTIC FRONT BY AN HOUR. WHITEOUT CONDITIONS HAVE BEEN OBSERVED HERE            
AT OUR OFFICE...IN THE CITY OF MARQUETTE AND ELSEWHERE THAT HAVE                
BEEN IMPACTED BY THE CONVERGENT BAND OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW ALONG THE              
FRONT. A FEW VEHICLE ACCIDENTS HAVE ALSO OCCURRED DUE TO THE                    
WHITEOUT CONDITIONS. HAVE BEEN ISSUING SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENTS TO            
EMPHASIZE THE HEAVY SNOW BURST ACCOMPANYING THE FRONT. IN THE WAKE              
OF THE FRONT...LAKE EFFECT BANDS ARE SETTING UP...BUT ARE NOT ALL               
THAT IMPRESSIVE. HOWEVER...STRONG NORTHERLY FLOW IS HELPING TO                  
INCREASE UPSLOPE...AND THEREFORE A LOT OF THE HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS              
ARE BEING OBSERVED OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. RECENTLY RECEIVED A                 
REPORT OF 8 INCHES SO FAR IN IRONWOOD AND STILL SNOWING HEAVILY.                
WINDS SHOULD REMAIN CONVERGENT IN THE IRONWOOD AREA THROUGH THE                 
AFTERNOON...SO THE WARNING FOR THE FAR WEST LOOKS GOOD. ONLY AREA OF            
CONCERN THAT IS NOT PANNING OUT TOO WELL IS THE BLIZZARD WARNING OF             
THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA. WINDS HAVE BEEN GUSTING TO BLIZZARD                     
CRITERIA...ESPECIALLY AT P59...BUT THE SNOWFALL HAS BEEN FAIRLY                 
BENIGN OUTSIDE OF THE INITIAL CONVERGENT BAND THAT MOVED THROUGH                
EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS IS PROBABLY DUE TO THE FACT THAT WINDS ARE             
NOT CONVERGENT AT ALL...AND LIKELY THE ONLY AREA SEEING HEAVIER SNOW            
IS THE HIGHEST TERRAIN OF KEWEENAW COUNTY (I.E. DELAWARE AND                    
PHOENIX). WEBCAMS SEEM TO CONFIRM THIS AS WELL. WILL KEEP THE                   
BLIZZARD WARNING GOING...IN CASE SNOW TRIES TO PICK UP A BIT THIS               
AFTERNOON AS COLDER AIR FILTERS IN. HOWEVER...THIS COLDER AIR WILL              
ALSO BE DRIER...AS EVIDENCED BY PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF LESS               
THAN 0.10 OF AN INCH ON THE 12Z SOUNDINGS FROM CWPL AND KINL.                   
UPDATED GRID FORECAST AND WINTER STORM STATEMENT HAVE BEEN ISSUED.              
NO CHANGES NEEDED TO THE ZFP.                                                   
&&                                                                              
.DISCUSSION... (ISSUED AT 355 AM EST)                                           
00Z RAOBS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW ERN TROF/WRN RDG              
CONFIGURATION OVER NAMERICA. A PAIR OF STRONG SHRTWVS NOTED DIGGING             
SEWD INTO THE TROF IN THE NW FLOW ALF BTWN THESE TWO LARGER SCALE               
FEATURES. THE FIRST SHRTWV IS SLIDING INTO IA...AND THE SECOND IS               
MOVING THRU NW ONTARIO. STRONG NW WINDS ALF WITH 00Z H3/H5/H7 WINDS             
AS HI AS 150KT/90KT/60KT NOTED ON ACYC SIDE OF FIRST SHRTWV. GENERAL            
LLVL SW FLOW AHEAD OF ACCOMPANYING SFC-H85 TROF IN MN AND ARCTIC                
COLD FNT MOVING THRU NW MN/ADJOINING ONTARIO HAS CAUSED AREAS OF -SN            
ACRS NE MN/UPR MI AS ISENTROPIC LIFT/DPVA/H85-5 QVECTOR CNVGC HAS               
GRDLY SATURATED INITIALLY DRY AIRMASS OVER THE UPR GRT LK AS SHOWN              
ON THE 00Z GRB RAOB. 00Z INL SDNG SHOWS DEEP SATURATION THRU H3. THE            
HEAVIEST SN APPEARS TO BE JUST S OF UPR MI IN WI...WHERE DPVA/UPR               
DVGC AHEAD OF SRN SHRTWV/IN LEFT EXIT OF SUPPORTING JET MAX APPEAR              
TO BE SHARPEST. THERE IS EVIDENCE AN LES BAND IS FORMING OVER LK MI             
IN THE SW FLOW AHEAD OF THE SHRTWV COMPLEX. WINDS APPEAR TO HAVE                
ENUF OF A WLY COMPONENT TO FORCE THIS SN BAND INTO CHIP/MACK                    
COUNTIES OF FAR ERN UPR MI...BUT WL HAVE TO MONITOR IN CASE THE BAND            
DRIFTS MORE TO THE W. FARTHER UPSTREAM...00Z H85 TEMPS AS LO AS -21C            
AT YQD BEHIND ARCTIC COLD FNT. THE AIRMASS ALSO DRIEST OUT QUITE A              
BIT AS WELL WITH SFC DWPTS NEAR -10F/CLRG OF LINGERING LO CLD BEHIND            
FNT PUSHING SWD NEAR LK WINNIPEG IN NLY FLOW AHEAD OF ARCTIC HI PRES            
BLDG INTO SASKATCHEWAN. 00Z PWAT WAS 0.07 INCH AT YQD.                          
MAIN FCST CONCERNS THIS PACKAGE ARE GOING HEADLINES/EXPECTED LES AND            
BLSN INTO SUN.                                                                  
FOR TDAY...THE SECOND SHRTWV IN ONTARIO/ACCOMPANYING ARCTIC COLD FNT            
WL BE THE MAIN INFLUENCE ON WX ACRS CWA AS FIRST SHRTWV/ACCOMPANYING            
DYNAMICS WL BE PASSING TO THE S INTO THE LOWER LKS BY 12Z. IN ITS               
WAKE...THE ONTARIO SHRTWV WL DIG ACRS THE FA WITH ARCTIC COLD FROPA             
SOON AFT 12Z OVER THE NW AND ARND 18Z OVER THE SE. STILL EXPECTING A            
PD OF LK ENHANCED HEAVIER SHSN TO ACCOMPANY THE ARRIVAL OF THIS                 
FEATURE OVER AT LEAST THE ZNS NEAR LK SUP AS GUIDANCE SHOWS DPVA/               
H85-5 QVECTOR CNVGC/UPR DVGC/DEEP MSTR LINGERING UNTIL DYNAMICS/DEEP            
MSTR PASS TO THE E AFT 18Z. THE PRESENCE OF SHARP UVV WITHIN THE                
PRIME SN GROWTH LYR ALSO SUGS A PD OF HEAVY SN. CYC NLY FLOW PROGGED            
TO INCREASE IN THE WAKE OF THE FNT...WITH H925 WINDS RISING TO                  
35-40KT PRODUCING STRONG CAD/LLVL DESTABILIZATION. THESE STRONG                 
WINDS WILL FRAGMENT THE SNOW FLAKES INTO A MORE POWDERY SN WITH                 
ARRIVAL OF COLDER/DRIER AIR IN THE AFTN. THE RESULT WILL BE A MORE              
EFFICIENT REDUCTION IN VSBY...WITH WDSPRD BLSN EVEN AFT THE SN                  
INTENSITY BEGINS TO DIMINISH. LK ENHANCED SN WL EVOLVE TO PURE LES              
BY LATER IN THE DAY AS H85 TEMPS BOTTOM OUT ARND -18C OVER LK SUP BY            
00Z SUN. THE STRONG NNW WINDS...STRONGEST OVER THE CNTRL ZNS...WL               
PUSH THE SHSN FARTHER INLAND INTO DELTA/SRN SCHOOLCRAFT COUNTIES.               
OTRW...EXPECT HI TEMPS IN THE MRNG OVER THE W HALF...WITH THE                   
MERCURY FALLING OFF IN THE AFTN WITH ARRIVAL OF COLDER AIR.                     
LOOK FOR PURE LES TNGT WITH RISING HGTS/DNVA/H85-5 QVECTOR DVGC IN              
WAKE OF DEPARTING SHRTWV/SFC LO. THE INTENSITY OF THE LES/BLSN OVER             
THE W SHOULD DIMINISH THRU THE NGT WITH THE ARRIVAL OF MUCH DRIER               
AIR FM THE NW AND APPROACH OF HI PRES RDG AS INVERSION HGTS FCST TO             
LOWER TO 3K FT DURING THE NGT FM IWD-CMX. BUT STILL EXPECT HI                   
SN/WATER RATIOS THROUGH THE END OF THE EVENT OVER THE W WITH TEMPS              
WITHIN THE INCRSGLY SHALLOW MOIST LYR ARND A FAVORABLE TEMP OF                  
-15C...ESPECIALLY WITH DIMINISHING WINDS/SN FLAKE FRAGMENTATION.                
BLIZZARD CONDITIONS OVER ALGER/NRN SCHOOLRAFT COUNTY SHOULD EASE AFT            
THE EVNG WITH H925 WINDS FCST TO DIMINISH TO ARND 25 KT BY 12Z SUN.             
LES BANDS SHOULD CONTINUE TO DRIFT FAR INTO DELTA/SRN SCHOOLCRAFT               
ZNS. OTRW...LONGER FETCH LENGTH ACRS ERN LK SUP WL MITIGATE IMPACT              
OF DRYING SOMEWHAT. LES CHART WOULD SUG 3-6 INCHES OF SN THRU THE               
NGT OVER THE E...WITH THE HEAVIER AMTS MOST LIKELY OVER ALGER/NRN               
SCHOOLCRAFT IN MOST PERSISTENT...FOCUSED LLVL CNVGC SHOWN BY                    
NAM12/LOCAL HI RES WRF-ARW ON E EDGE OF LAND BREEZE OFF THE INTERIOR            
W HALF. WL TEND TOWARD THE LO END OF MOS GUIDANCE FOR MIN TEMPS FCST            
CONSIDERING INTENSITY OF THIS SHRTWV/DRYNESS OF AIR UPSTREAM.                   
GOING HEADLINES SEEM TO HAVE THE SITUATION IN HAND FOR TDAY...BUT               
OPTED TO END THE WRNGS BY 00Z SUN OVER THE W ONCE STRONGEST WINDS               
(H925 WINDS ABV 25 KTS) ARE FCST TO DIMINISH FOLLOWING PASSAGE OF               
PRES RISE MAX TO THE SE. WL MAINTAIN GOING HEADLINES AS IS FOR THE E            
HALF.                                                                           
LES WL DIMINISH W-E ON SUN WITH ARRIVAL OF HI PRES RDG UNDER                    
CONTINUED RISING HGTS. AS LLVL FLOW BACKS AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE...              
THE LES OVER THE E WL TEND TO SHIFT TO THE E BUT END COMPLETELY FM              
MQT AND W. HOWEVER...LARGER SCALE NAM/GFS MIGHT BE TOO AGGRESSIVE               
WITH THIS SHIFT OVER THE E CONSIDERING STRONGER LLVL CNVGC SHOWN BY             
HIER RES CNDN/WRF-ARW RUNS TO BE MORE PERSISTENT OVER ALGER/NRN                 
SCHOOLCRAFT WITH LAND BREEZE OFF ONTARIO HOLDING UP THE PROGRESS.               
BUT SINCE WINDS/BLSN WL NO LONGER BE AN ISSUE...WL NOT EXTEND GOING             
HEADLINE EXPIRATION OF 15Z FOR THESE ZNS. OTRW...SUN WL BE ANOTHER              
VERY COLD DAY UNDER ARRIVING RDG AXIS AND 850 MB THERMAL TROF WITH              
H85 TEMPS RANGING FM ABOUT -15C OVER THE W TO -18C OVER THE E BY 00Z            
MON. MAX TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN IN THE TEENS AT MOST SPOTS EVEN THOUGH             
THERE WL BE SOME SUNSHINE OVER THE W AND CNTRL BEFORE MORE HI CLDS              
AHEAD OF NEXT SHRTWV APRCHG FM THE W INVADE LATER IN THE DAY.                   
AS FLOW BACKS TO MORE SSW ON SUN NGT AHEAD OF INCOMING SHRTWV FM THE            
PLAINS...LINGERING LES OFF LK SUP WL DIMINISH AND END OVER THE E                
WHILE MID CLD THICKENS WITH DVLPG ISENTROPIC LIFT SHOWN ON THE                  
275K-285K SFCS (H8 THRU H7). GFS AND ESPECIALLY THE NAM SHOW SHARPER            
ISENTROPIC LIFT/H85-5 QVECTOR CNVGC PASSING TO THE S OF THE FA. WITH            
SUPPORT FM THE CNDN MODEL AND NCEP PREFERENCE...WL FOLLOW THE                   
GFS/CNDN SOLN MOST CLOSELY. THESE MODELS SUG A SOMEWHAT HIER POP                
OVER THE SRN TIER...WITH BOTH ACTUALLY SHOWING SOME UPR DVGC IN LEFT            
EXIT OF SUPPORTING UPR JET STREAK. LOOKS LIKE MUCH OF THESE DYNAMICS            
WL BE NECESSARY TO SATURATE INITIALLY DRY AIRMASS...SO WL KEEP POPS             
IN THE CHC RANGE (20 OVER THE N TO 50 ACRS THE S) EXCEPT OVER SRN               
MNM COUNTY (60 THERE). ONE OTHER INTERESTING ASPECT OF THE FCST IS              
THE POTENTIAL FOR AN LES BAND TO DVLP OVER LK MI AND PUSH INTO THE              
ERN ZNS ON THE HEELS OF A SSW WIND AND H85 TEMPS ARND -13C OVER NRN             
LK MI AT 12Z MON. WL MAINTAIN GOING HIER POPS TO REFLECT THIS                   
POTENTIAL DOWNWIND OF LK MI. DIMINISHED POPS A BIT ON MON AFTN AS               
GFS/CNDN SHOW BETTER DYNAMICS SHIFTING TO THE E AND SOME DRYING ALF.            
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION (FOR THE 18Z TAF ISSUANCE)...                                         
ARCTIC FRONT HAS PUSHED THROUGH BOTH TAF SITES...WITH BLUSTERY                  
MULTI-PARALLEL BAND LAKE EFFECT SNOW SET UP IN ITS WAKE. WOULD                  
EXPECT CONDITIONS TO BOUNCE BACK AND FORTH BTWN IFR AND LIFR AND                
BOTH TAF SITES THROUGH THE REST OF THE AFTN AS BANDS MOVE THROUGH.              
THERE IS A CHANCE VSBYS COULD DROP TO VLIFR BUT NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO              
INCLUDE EVEN IN A TEMPO GROUP ATTM. TONIGHT...A SINGLE BAND OF SNOW             
FROM LAKE NIPIGON ACROSS CENTRAL LAKE SUPERIOR MAY BECOME STATIONARY            
FOR A FEW HOURS AT SAW...WITH ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO AT LEAST INCLUDE             
LIFR CONDITIONS. OTHERWISE...IMPROVEMENT IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE                
NIGHT AS WINDS DIMINISH AND DRIER AIR WORKS IN FROM MN...WITH VSBYS             
REACHING VFR BY SUNRISE. CIGS WILL REACH VFR LATE SUNDAY MORNING AS             
THE DRIER AIR AND WINDS BACKING TOWARDS THE WEST AND EVENTUALLY SW              
HELP TO BREAK UP THE CLOUDS.                                                    
&&                                                                              
.MARINE (FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)...                       
STRONG COLD FRONT PLOWING THROUGH ALONG WITH SFC LOW DEEPENING JUST             
EAST OF LK SUPERIOR RESULTS IN GALES 40-45 KNOTS FOR THE E 2/3 OF               
LAKE SUPERIOR THROUGH TONIGHT. WINDS DIMINISH BY SUNDAY AS HIGH                 
PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. SRLY WINDS ON MONDAY AHEAD OF            
LOW PRESSURE TROUGH SHOULD REACH 30 KNOTS...MAINLY OVER E 1/2 OF                
LAKE SUPERIOR.                                                                  
&&                                                                              
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
UPPER MICHIGAN...                                                               
  LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MIZ084.             
  BLIZZARD WARNING FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 AM EST SUNDAY                 
     FOR MIZ006-085.                                                            
  BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MIZ001-003.                  
  WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST /6 PM CST/ THIS EVENING                   
     FOR MIZ002-009.                                                            
  WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 AM EST                    
     SUNDAY FOR MIZ007.                                                         
  LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST SUNDAY FOR MIZ004.                   
  WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST SUNDAY FOR MIZ005.                        
  WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 AM EST                     
     SUNDAY FOR MIZ013-014.                                                     
LAKE SUPERIOR...                                                                
  GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST SUNDAY FOR LSZ248>251-265>267.                    
  GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR LSZ263-264.                     
  GALE WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST SUNDAY FOR LSZ242>245.                            
  GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST /6 PM CST/ THIS EVENING FOR LSZ241.               
LAKE MICHIGAN...                                                                
  GALE WARNING FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 1 AM EST SUNDAY FOR                  
     LMZ221-250.                                                                
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
UPDATE...AJ                                                                     
DISCUSSION...KC                                                                 
AVIATION...AJ                                                                   
MARINE...JLA                                                                    
</pre> mi                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
1133 AM EST SAT DEC 6 2008                                                      
.UPDATE...                                                                      
GOING FORECAST LOOKS IN PRETTY GOOD SHAPE BASED ON THE LAST FEW                 
HOURS OF RADAR IMAGERY. ARCTIC/POLAR FRONT MOVING SE THROUGH UPPER              
MI ABOUT AN HOUR TO TWO FASTER COMPARED TO PREVIOUS RUNS...BUT IT               
WORKS OUT ALRIGHT AS THE STRONGER WINDS SEEM TO BE LAGGING THE                  
ARCTIC FRONT BY AN HOUR. WHITEOUT CONDITIONS HAVE BEEN OBSERVED HERE            
AT OUR OFFICE...IN THE CITY OF MARQUETTE AND ELSEWHERE THAT HAVE                
BEEN IMPACTED BY THE CONVERGENT BAND OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW ALONG THE              
FRONT. A FEW VEHICLE ACCIDENTS HAVE ALSO OCCURRED DUE TO THE                    
WHITEOUT CONDITIONS. HAVE BEEN ISSUING SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENTS TO            
EMPHASIZE THE HEAVY SNOW BURST ACCOMPANYING THE FRONT. IN THE WAKE              
OF THE FRONT...LAKE EFFECT BANDS ARE SETTING UP...BUT ARE NOT ALL               
THAT IMPRESSIVE. HOWEVER...STRONG NORTHERLY FLOW IS HELPING TO                  
INCREASE UPSLOPE...AND THEREFORE A LOT OF THE HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS              
ARE BEING OBSERVED OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. RECENTLY RECEIVED A                 
REPORT OF 8 INCHES SO FAR IN IRONWOOD AND STILL SNOWING HEAVILY.                
WINDS SHOULD REMAIN CONVERGENT IN THE IRONWOOD AREA THROUGH THE                 
AFTERNOON...SO THE WARNING FOR THE FAR WEST LOOKS GOOD. ONLY AREA OF            
CONCERN THAT IS NOT PANNING OUT TOO WELL IS THE BLIZZARD WARNING OF             
THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA. WINDS HAVE BEEN GUSTING TO BLIZZARD                     
CRITERIA...ESPECIALLY AT P59...BUT THE SNOWFALL HAS BEEN FAIRLY                 
BENIGN OUTSIDE OF THE INITIAL CONVERGENT BAND THAT MOVED THROUGH                
EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS IS PROBABLY DUE TO THE FACT THAT WINDS ARE             
NOT CONVERGENT AT ALL...AND LIKELY THE ONLY AREA SEEING HEAVIER SNOW            
IS THE HIGHEST TERRAIN OF KEWEENAW COUNTY (I.E. DELAWARE AND                    
PHOENIX). WEBCAMS SEEM TO CONFIRM THIS AS WELL. WILL KEEP THE                   
BLIZZARD WARNING GOING...IN CASE SNOW TRIES TO PICK UP A BIT THIS               
AFTERNOON AS COLDER AIR FILTERS IN. HOWEVER...THIS COLDER AIR WILL              
ALSO BE DRIER...AS EVIDENCED BY PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF LESS               
THAN 0.10 OF AN INCH ON THE 12Z SOUNDINGS FROM CWPL AND KINL.                   
UPDATED GRID FORECAST AND WINTER STORM STATEMENT HAVE BEEN ISSUED.              
NO CHANGES NEEDED TO THE ZFP.                                                   
&&                                                                              
.DISCUSSION... (ISSUED AT 355 AM EST)                                           
00Z RAOBS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW ERN TROF/WRN RDG              
CONFIGURATION OVER NAMERICA. A PAIR OF STRONG SHRTWVS NOTED DIGGING             
SEWD INTO THE TROF IN THE NW FLOW ALF BTWN THESE TWO LARGER SCALE               
FEATURES. THE FIRST SHRTWV IS SLIDING INTO IA...AND THE SECOND IS               
MOVING THRU NW ONTARIO. STRONG NW WINDS ALF WITH 00Z H3/H5/H7 WINDS             
AS HI AS 150KT/90KT/60KT NOTED ON ACYC SIDE OF FIRST SHRTWV. GENERAL            
LLVL SW FLOW AHEAD OF ACCOMPANYING SFC-H85 TROF IN MN AND ARCTIC                
COLD FNT MOVING THRU NW MN/ADJOINING ONTARIO HAS CAUSED AREAS OF -SN            
ACRS NE MN/UPR MI AS ISENTROPIC LIFT/DPVA/H85-5 QVECTOR CNVGC HAS               
GRDLY SATURATED INITIALLY DRY AIRMASS OVER THE UPR GRT LK AS SHOWN              
ON THE 00Z GRB RAOB. 00Z INL SDNG SHOWS DEEP SATURATION THRU H3. THE            
HEAVIEST SN APPEARS TO BE JUST S OF UPR MI IN WI...WHERE DPVA/UPR               
DVGC AHEAD OF SRN SHRTWV/IN LEFT EXIT OF SUPPORTING JET MAX APPEAR              
TO BE SHARPEST. THERE IS EVIDENCE AN LES BAND IS FORMING OVER LK MI             
IN THE SW FLOW AHEAD OF THE SHRTWV COMPLEX. WINDS APPEAR TO HAVE                
ENUF OF A WLY COMPONENT TO FORCE THIS SN BAND INTO CHIP/MACK                    
COUNTIES OF FAR ERN UPR MI...BUT WL HAVE TO MONITOR IN CASE THE BAND            
DRIFTS MORE TO THE W. FARTHER UPSTREAM...00Z H85 TEMPS AS LO AS -21C            
AT YQD BEHIND ARCTIC COLD FNT. THE AIRMASS ALSO DRIEST OUT QUITE A              
BIT AS WELL WITH SFC DWPTS NEAR -10F/CLRG OF LINGERING LO CLD BEHIND            
FNT PUSHING SWD NEAR LK WINNIPEG IN NLY FLOW AHEAD OF ARCTIC HI PRES            
BLDG INTO SASKATCHEWAN. 00Z PWAT WAS 0.07 INCH AT YQD.                          
MAIN FCST CONCERNS THIS PACKAGE ARE GOING HEADLINES/EXPECTED LES AND            
BLSN INTO SUN.                                                                  
FOR TDAY...THE SECOND SHRTWV IN ONTARIO/ACCOMPANYING ARCTIC COLD FNT            
WL BE THE MAIN INFLUENCE ON WX ACRS CWA AS FIRST SHRTWV/ACCOMPANYING            
DYNAMICS WL BE PASSING TO THE S INTO THE LOWER LKS BY 12Z. IN ITS               
WAKE...THE ONTARIO SHRTWV WL DIG ACRS THE FA WITH ARCTIC COLD FROPA             
SOON AFT 12Z OVER THE NW AND ARND 18Z OVER THE SE. STILL EXPECTING A            
PD OF LK ENHANCED HEAVIER SHSN TO ACCOMPANY THE ARRIVAL OF THIS                 
FEATURE OVER AT LEAST THE ZNS NEAR LK SUP AS GUIDANCE SHOWS DPVA/               
H85-5 QVECTOR CNVGC/UPR DVGC/DEEP MSTR LINGERING UNTIL DYNAMICS/DEEP            
MSTR PASS TO THE E AFT 18Z. THE PRESENCE OF SHARP UVV WITHIN THE                
PRIME SN GROWTH LYR ALSO SUGS A PD OF HEAVY SN. CYC NLY FLOW PROGGED            
TO INCREASE IN THE WAKE OF THE FNT...WITH H925 WINDS RISING TO                  
35-40KT PRODUCING STRONG CAD/LLVL DESTABILIZATION. THESE STRONG                 
WINDS WILL FRAGMENT THE SNOW FLAKES INTO A MORE POWDERY SN WITH                 
ARRIVAL OF COLDER/DRIER AIR IN THE AFTN. THE RESULT WILL BE A MORE              
EFFICIENT REDUCTION IN VSBY...WITH WDSPRD BLSN EVEN AFT THE SN                  
INTENSITY BEGINS TO DIMINISH. LK ENHANCED SN WL EVOLVE TO PURE LES              
BY LATER IN THE DAY AS H85 TEMPS BOTTOM OUT ARND -18C OVER LK SUP BY            
00Z SUN. THE STRONG NNW WINDS...STRONGEST OVER THE CNTRL ZNS...WL               
PUSH THE SHSN FARTHER INLAND INTO DELTA/SRN SCHOOLCRAFT COUNTIES.               
OTRW...EXPECT HI TEMPS IN THE MRNG OVER THE W HALF...WITH THE                   
MERCURY FALLING OFF IN THE AFTN WITH ARRIVAL OF COLDER AIR.                     
LOOK FOR PURE LES TNGT WITH RISING HGTS/DNVA/H85-5 QVECTOR DVGC IN              
WAKE OF DEPARTING SHRTWV/SFC LO. THE INTENSITY OF THE LES/BLSN OVER             
THE W SHOULD DIMINISH THRU THE NGT WITH THE ARRIVAL OF MUCH DRIER               
AIR FM THE NW AND APPROACH OF HI PRES RDG AS INVERSION HGTS FCST TO             
LOWER TO 3K FT DURING THE NGT FM IWD-CMX. BUT STILL EXPECT HI                   
SN/WATER RATIOS THROUGH THE END OF THE EVENT OVER THE W WITH TEMPS              
WITHIN THE INCRSGLY SHALLOW MOIST LYR ARND A FAVORABLE TEMP OF                  
-15C...ESPECIALLY WITH DIMINISHING WINDS/SN FLAKE FRAGMENTATION.                
BLIZZARD CONDITIONS OVER ALGER/NRN SCHOOLRAFT COUNTY SHOULD EASE AFT            
THE EVNG WITH H925 WINDS FCST TO DIMINISH TO ARND 25 KT BY 12Z SUN.             
LES BANDS SHOULD CONTINUE TO DRIFT FAR INTO DELTA/SRN SCHOOLCRAFT               
ZNS. OTRW...LONGER FETCH LENGTH ACRS ERN LK SUP WL MITIGATE IMPACT              
OF DRYING SOMEWHAT. LES CHART WOULD SUG 3-6 INCHES OF SN THRU THE               
NGT OVER THE E...WITH THE HEAVIER AMTS MOST LIKELY OVER ALGER/NRN               
SCHOOLCRAFT IN MOST PERSISTENT...FOCUSED LLVL CNVGC SHOWN BY                    
NAM12/LOCAL HI RES WRF-ARW ON E EDGE OF LAND BREEZE OFF THE INTERIOR            
W HALF. WL TEND TOWARD THE LO END OF MOS GUIDANCE FOR MIN TEMPS FCST            
CONSIDERING INTENSITY OF THIS SHRTWV/DRYNESS OF AIR UPSTREAM.                   
GOING HEADLINES SEEM TO HAVE THE SITUATION IN HAND FOR TDAY...BUT               
OPTED TO END THE WRNGS BY 00Z SUN OVER THE W ONCE STRONGEST WINDS               
(H925 WINDS ABV 25 KTS) ARE FCST TO DIMINISH FOLLOWING PASSAGE OF               
PRES RISE MAX TO THE SE. WL MAINTAIN GOING HEADLINES AS IS FOR THE E            
HALF.                                                                           
LES WL DIMINISH W-E ON SUN WITH ARRIVAL OF HI PRES RDG UNDER                    
CONTINUED RISING HGTS. AS LLVL FLOW BACKS AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE...              
THE LES OVER THE E WL TEND TO SHIFT TO THE E BUT END COMPLETELY FM              
MQT AND W. HOWEVER...LARGER SCALE NAM/GFS MIGHT BE TOO AGGRESSIVE               
WITH THIS SHIFT OVER THE E CONSIDERING STRONGER LLVL CNVGC SHOWN BY             
HIER RES CNDN/WRF-ARW RUNS TO BE MORE PERSISTENT OVER ALGER/NRN                 
SCHOOLCRAFT WITH LAND BREEZE OFF ONTARIO HOLDING UP THE PROGRESS.               
BUT SINCE WINDS/BLSN WL NO LONGER BE AN ISSUE...WL NOT EXTEND GOING             
HEADLINE EXPIRATION OF 15Z FOR THESE ZNS. OTRW...SUN WL BE ANOTHER              
VERY COLD DAY UNDER ARRIVING RDG AXIS AND 850 MB THERMAL TROF WITH              
H85 TEMPS RANGING FM ABOUT -15C OVER THE W TO -18C OVER THE E BY 00Z            
MON. MAX TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN IN THE TEENS AT MOST SPOTS EVEN THOUGH             
THERE WL BE SOME SUNSHINE OVER THE W AND CNTRL BEFORE MORE HI CLDS              
AHEAD OF NEXT SHRTWV APRCHG FM THE W INVADE LATER IN THE DAY.                   
AS FLOW BACKS TO MORE SSW ON SUN NGT AHEAD OF INCOMING SHRTWV FM THE            
PLAINS...LINGERING LES OFF LK SUP WL DIMINISH AND END OVER THE E                
WHILE MID CLD THICKENS WITH DVLPG ISENTROPIC LIFT SHOWN ON THE                  
275K-285K SFCS (H8 THRU H7). GFS AND ESPECIALLY THE NAM SHOW SHARPER            
ISENTROPIC LIFT/H85-5 QVECTOR CNVGC PASSING TO THE S OF THE FA. WITH            
SUPPORT FM THE CNDN MODEL AND NCEP PREFERENCE...WL FOLLOW THE                   
GFS/CNDN SOLN MOST CLOSELY. THESE MODELS SUG A SOMEWHAT HIER POP                
OVER THE SRN TIER...WITH BOTH ACTUALLY SHOWING SOME UPR DVGC IN LEFT            
EXIT OF SUPPORTING UPR JET STREAK. LOOKS LIKE MUCH OF THESE DYNAMICS            
WL BE NECESSARY TO SATURATE INITIALLY DRY AIRMASS...SO WL KEEP POPS             
IN THE CHC RANGE (20 OVER THE N TO 50 ACRS THE S) EXCEPT OVER SRN               
MNM COUNTY (60 THERE). ONE OTHER INTERESTING ASPECT OF THE FCST IS              
THE POTENTIAL FOR AN LES BAND TO DVLP OVER LK MI AND PUSH INTO THE              
ERN ZNS ON THE HEELS OF A SSW WIND AND H85 TEMPS ARND -13C OVER NRN             
LK MI AT 12Z MON. WL MAINTAIN GOING HIER POPS TO REFLECT THIS                   
POTENTIAL DOWNWIND OF LK MI. DIMINISHED POPS A BIT ON MON AFTN AS               
GFS/CNDN SHOW BETTER DYNAMICS SHIFTING TO THE E AND SOME DRYING ALF.            
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION (FOR THE 12Z TAF ISSUANCE)...                                         
ARCTIC FRONT ON VERGE OF PUSHING THROUGH KEWEENAW. AS THE FRONT                 
SWEEPS THROUGH THE REST OF UPPER MICHIGAN THROUGH EARLY                         
AFTN...EXPECT PERIOD OF HVY LAKE ENHANCED SHSN AND BLSN AS WINDS                
SHIFT SHARPLY TO STRONG NRLY. VLIFR CONDITIONS IN SHSN/BLSN WILL                
OCCUR AT BOTH SITES...ALREADY HAPPENING AT CMX...AND DUE INTO SAW               
EARLY THIS AFTN. EVENTUALLY...IMPROVEMENT TO LIFR EXPECTED...BUT                
THIS MAY TAKE A WHILE AS STRONG WINDS/BLSN HANG ON INTO THE EARLY               
EVENING. FURTHER IMPROVEMENT TO IFR AT KCMX AND TO MVFR AT KSAW                 
SHOULD OCCUR LATER TONIGHT AS AIRMASS BECOMES DRIER...CAUSING SHSN              
TO DIMINISH...AND WINDS DECREASE...RESULTING IN LESS BLSN.                      
&&                                                                              
.MARINE (FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)...                       
STRONG COLD FRONT PLOWING THROUGH ALONG WITH SFC LOW DEEPENING JUST             
EAST OF LK SUPERIOR RESULTS IN GALES 40-45 KNOTS FOR THE E 2/3 OF               
LAKE SUPERIOR THROUGH TONIGHT. WINDS DIMINISH BY SUNDAY AS HIGH                 
PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. SRLY WINDS ON MONDAY AHEAD OF            
LOW PRESSURE TROUGH SHOULD REACH 30 KNOTS...MAINLY OVER E 1/2 OF                
LAKE SUPERIOR.                                                                  
&&                                                                              
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
UPPER MICHIGAN...                                                               
  LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MIZ084.             
  BLIZZARD WARNING FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 AM EST SUNDAY                 
     FOR MIZ006-085.                                                            
  BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MIZ001-003.                  
  WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST /6 PM CST/ THIS EVENING                   
     FOR MIZ002-009.                                                            
  WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 AM EST                    
     SUNDAY FOR MIZ007.                                                         
  LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST SUNDAY FOR MIZ004.                   
  WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST SUNDAY FOR MIZ005.                        
  WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 AM EST                     
     SUNDAY FOR MIZ013-014.                                                     
LAKE SUPERIOR...                                                                
  GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST SUNDAY FOR LSZ248>251-265>267.                    
  GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR LSZ263-264.                     
  GALE WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST SUNDAY FOR LSZ242>245.                            
  GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST /6 PM CST/ THIS EVENING FOR LSZ241.               
LAKE MICHIGAN...                                                                
  GALE WARNING FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 1 AM EST SUNDAY FOR                  
     LMZ221-250.                                                                
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
UPDATE...AJ                                                                     
DISCUSSION...KC                                                                 
AVIATION...JLA                                                                  
MARINE...JLA                                                                    
</pre> mi                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
645 AM EST SAT DEC 6 2008                                                       
UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR 12Z TAFS                                        
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
00Z RAOBS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW ERN TROF/WRN RDG              
CONFIGURATION OVER NAMERICA. A PAIR OF STRONG SHRTWVS NOTED DIGGING             
SEWD INTO THE TROF IN THE NW FLOW ALF BTWN THESE TWO LARGER SCALE               
FEATURES. THE FIRST SHRTWV IS SLIDING INTO IA...AND THE SECOND IS               
MOVING THRU NW ONTARIO. STRONG NW WINDS ALF WITH 00Z H3/H5/H7 WINDS             
AS HI AS 150KT/90KT/60KT NOTED ON ACYC SIDE OF FIRST SHRTWV. GENERAL            
LLVL SW FLOW AHEAD OF ACCOMPANYING SFC-H85 TROF IN MN AND ARCTIC                
COLD FNT MOVING THRU NW MN/ADJOINING ONTARIO HAS CAUSED AREAS OF -SN            
ACRS NE MN/UPR MI AS ISENTROPIC LIFT/DPVA/H85-5 QVECTOR CNVGC HAS               
GRDLY SATURATED INITIALLY DRY AIRMASS OVER THE UPR GRT LK AS SHOWN              
ON THE 00Z GRB RAOB. 00Z INL SDNG SHOWS DEEP SATURATION THRU H3. THE            
HEAVIEST SN APPEARS TO BE JUST S OF UPR MI IN WI...WHERE DPVA/UPR               
DVGC AHEAD OF SRN SHRTWV/IN LEFT EXIT OF SUPPORTING JET MAX APPEAR              
TO BE SHARPEST. THERE IS EVIDENCE AN LES BAND IS FORMING OVER LK MI             
IN THE SW FLOW AHEAD OF THE SHRTWV COMPLEX. WINDS APPEAR TO HAVE                
ENUF OF A WLY COMPONENT TO FORCE THIS SN BAND INTO CHIP/MACK                    
COUNTIES OF FAR ERN UPR MI...BUT WL HAVE TO MONITOR IN CASE THE BAND            
DRIFTS MORE TO THE W. FARTHER UPSTREAM...00Z H85 TEMPS AS LO AS -21C            
AT YQD BEHIND ARCTIC COLD FNT. THE AIRMASS ALSO DRIEST OUT QUITE A              
BIT AS WELL WITH SFC DWPTS NEAR -10F/CLRG OF LINGERING LO CLD BEHIND            
FNT PUSHING SWD NEAR LK WINNIPEG IN NLY FLOW AHEAD OF ARCTIC HI PRES            
BLDG INTO SASKATCHEWAN. 00Z PWAT WAS 0.07 INCH AT YQD.                          
MAIN FCST CONCERNS THIS PACKAGE ARE GOING HEADLINES/EXPECTED LES AND            
BLSN INTO SUN.                                                                  
FOR TDAY...THE SECOND SHRTWV IN ONTARIO/ACCOMPANYING ARCTIC COLD FNT            
WL BE THE MAIN INFLUENCE ON WX ACRS CWA AS FIRST SHRTWV/ACCOMPANYING            
DYNAMICS WL BE PASSING TO THE S INTO THE LOWER LKS BY 12Z. IN ITS               
WAKE...THE ONTARIO SHRTWV WL DIG ACRS THE FA WITH ARCTIC COLD FROPA             
SOON AFT 12Z OVER THE NW AND ARND 18Z OVER THE SE. STILL EXPECTING A            
PD OF LK ENHANCED HEAVIER SHSN TO ACCOMPANY THE ARRIVAL OF THIS                 
FEATURE OVER AT LEAST THE ZNS NEAR LK SUP AS GUIDANCE SHOWS DPVA/               
H85-5 QVECTOR CNVGC/UPR DVGC/DEEP MSTR LINGERING UNTIL DYNAMICS/DEEP            
MSTR PASS TO THE E AFT 18Z. THE PRESENCE OF SHARP UVV WITHIN THE                
PRIME SN GROWTH LYR ALSO SUGS A PD OF HEAVY SN. CYC NLY FLOW PROGGED            
TO INCREASE IN THE WAKE OF THE FNT...WITH H925 WINDS RISING TO                  
35-40KT PRODUCING STRONG CAD/LLVL DESTABILIZATION. THESE STRONG                 
WINDS WILL FRAGMENT THE SNOW FLAKES INTO A MORE POWDERY SN WITH                 
ARRIVAL OF COLDER/DRIER AIR IN THE AFTN. THE RESULT WILL BE A MORE              
EFFICIENT REDUCTION IN VSBY...WITH WDSPRD BLSN EVEN AFT THE SN                  
INTENSITY BEGINS TO DIMINISH. LK ENHANCED SN WL EVOLVE TO PURE LES              
BY LATER IN THE DAY AS H85 TEMPS BOTTOM OUT ARND -18C OVER LK SUP BY            
00Z SUN. THE STRONG NNW WINDS...STRONGEST OVER THE CNTRL ZNS...WL               
PUSH THE SHSN FARTHER INLAND INTO DELTA/SRN SCHOOLCRAFT COUNTIES.               
OTRW...EXPECT HI TEMPS IN THE MRNG OVER THE W HALF...WITH THE                   
MERCURY FALLING OFF IN THE AFTN WITH ARRIVAL OF COLDER AIR.                     
LOOK FOR PURE LES TNGT WITH RISING HGTS/DNVA/H85-5 QVECTOR DVGC IN              
WAKE OF DEPARTING SHRTWV/SFC LO. THE INTENSITY OF THE LES/BLSN OVER             
THE W SHOULD DIMINISH THRU THE NGT WITH THE ARRIVAL OF MUCH DRIER               
AIR FM THE NW AND APPROACH OF HI PRES RDG AS INVERSION HGTS FCST TO             
LOWER TO 3K FT DURING THE NGT FM IWD-CMX. BUT STILL EXPECT HI                   
SN/WATER RATIOS THROUGH THE END OF THE EVENT OVER THE W WITH TEMPS              
WITHIN THE INCRSGLY SHALLOW MOIST LYR ARND A FAVORABLE TEMP OF                  
-15C...ESPECIALLY WITH DIMINISHING WINDS/SN FLAKE FRAGMENTATION.                
BLIZZARD CONDITIONS OVER ALGER/NRN SCHOOLRAFT COUNTY SHOULD EASE AFT            
THE EVNG WITH H925 WINDS FCST TO DIMINISH TO ARND 25 KT BY 12Z SUN.             
LES BANDS SHOULD CONTINUE TO DRIFT FAR INTO DELTA/SRN SCHOOLCRAFT               
ZNS. OTRW...LONGER FETCH LENGTH ACRS ERN LK SUP WL MITIGATE IMPACT              
OF DRYING SOMEWHAT. LES CHART WOULD SUG 3-6 INCHES OF SN THRU THE               
NGT OVER THE E...WITH THE HEAVIER AMTS MOST LIKELY OVER ALGER/NRN               
SCHOOLCRAFT IN MOST PERSISTENT...FOCUSED LLVL CNVGC SHOWN BY                    
NAM12/LOCAL HI RES WRF-ARW ON E EDGE OF LAND BREEZE OFF THE INTERIOR            
W HALF. WL TEND TOWARD THE LO END OF MOS GUIDANCE FOR MIN TEMPS FCST            
CONSIDERING INTENSITY OF THIS SHRTWV/DRYNESS OF AIR UPSTREAM.                   
GOING HEADLINES SEEM TO HAVE THE SITUATION IN HAND FOR TDAY...BUT               
OPTED TO END THE WRNGS BY 00Z SUN OVER THE W ONCE STRONGEST WINDS               
(H925 WINDS ABV 25 KTS) ARE FCST TO DIMINISH FOLLOWING PASSAGE OF               
PRES RISE MAX TO THE SE. WL MAINTAIN GOING HEADLINES AS IS FOR THE E            
HALF.                                                                           
LES WL DIMINISH W-E ON SUN WITH ARRIVAL OF HI PRES RDG UNDER                    
CONTINUED RISING HGTS. AS LLVL FLOW BACKS AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE...              
THE LES OVER THE E WL TEND TO SHIFT TO THE E BUT END COMPLETELY FM              
MQT AND W. HOWEVER...LARGER SCALE NAM/GFS MIGHT BE TOO AGGRESSIVE               
WITH THIS SHIFT OVER THE E CONSIDERING STRONGER LLVL CNVGC SHOWN BY             
HIER RES CNDN/WRF-ARW RUNS TO BE MORE PERSISTENT OVER ALGER/NRN                 
SCHOOLCRAFT WITH LAND BREEZE OFF ONTARIO HOLDING UP THE PROGRESS.               
BUT SINCE WINDS/BLSN WL NO LONGER BE AN ISSUE...WL NOT EXTEND GOING             
HEADLINE EXPIRATION OF 15Z FOR THESE ZNS. OTRW...SUN WL BE ANOTHER              
VERY COLD DAY UNDER ARRIVING RDG AXIS AND 850 MB THERMAL TROF WITH              
H85 TEMPS RANGING FM ABOUT -15C OVER THE W TO -18C OVER THE E BY 00Z            
MON. MAX TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN IN THE TEENS AT MOST SPOTS EVEN THOUGH             
THERE WL BE SOME SUNSHINE OVER THE W AND CNTRL BEFORE MORE HI CLDS              
AHEAD OF NEXT SHRTWV APRCHG FM THE W INVADE LATER IN THE DAY.                   
AS FLOW BACKS TO MORE SSW ON SUN NGT AHEAD OF INCOMING SHRTWV FM THE            
PLAINS...LINGERING LES OFF LK SUP WL DIMINISH AND END OVER THE E                
WHILE MID CLD THICKENS WITH DVLPG ISENTROPIC LIFT SHOWN ON THE                  
275K-285K SFCS (H8 THRU H7). GFS AND ESPECIALLY THE NAM SHOW SHARPER            
ISENTROPIC LIFT/H85-5 QVECTOR CNVGC PASSING TO THE S OF THE FA. WITH            
SUPPORT FM THE CNDN MODEL AND NCEP PREFERENCE...WL FOLLOW THE                   
GFS/CNDN SOLN MOST CLOSELY. THESE MODELS SUG A SOMEWHAT HIER POP                
OVER THE SRN TIER...WITH BOTH ACTUALLY SHOWING SOME UPR DVGC IN LEFT            
EXIT OF SUPPORTING UPR JET STREAK. LOOKS LIKE MUCH OF THESE DYNAMICS            
WL BE NECESSARY TO SATURATE INITIALLY DRY AIRMASS...SO WL KEEP POPS             
IN THE CHC RANGE (20 OVER THE N TO 50 ACRS THE S) EXCEPT OVER SRN               
MNM COUNTY (60 THERE). ONE OTHER INTERESTING ASPECT OF THE FCST IS              
THE POTENTIAL FOR AN LES BAND TO DVLP OVER LK MI AND PUSH INTO THE              
ERN ZNS ON THE HEELS OF A SSW WIND AND H85 TEMPS ARND -13C OVER NRN             
LK MI AT 12Z MON. WL MAINTAIN GOING HIER POPS TO REFLECT THIS                   
POTENTIAL DOWNWIND OF LK MI. DIMINISHED POPS A BIT ON MON AFTN AS               
GFS/CNDN SHOW BETTER DYNAMICS SHIFTING TO THE E AND SOME DRYING ALF.            
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION (FOR THE 12Z TAF ISSUANCE)...                                         
ARCTIC FRONT ON VERGE OF PUSHING THROUGH KEWEENAW. AS THE FRONT                 
SWEEPS THROUGH THE REST OF UPPER MICHIGAN THROUGH EARLY AFTN...EXPECT           
PERIOD OF HVY LAKE ENHANCED SHSN AND BLSN AS WINDS SHIFT SHARPLY TO             
STRONG NRLY. VLIFR CONDITIONS IN SHSN/BLSN WILL OCCUR AT BOTH                   
SITES...ALREADY HAPPENING AT CMX...AND DUE INTO SAW EARLY THIS AFTN.            
EVENTUALLY...IMPROVEMENT TO LIFR EXPECTED...BUT THIS MAY TAKE A                 
WHILE AS STRONG WINDS/BLSN HANG ON INTO THE EARLY EVENING. FURTHER              
IMPROVEMENT TO IFR AT KCMX AND TO MVFR AT KSAW SHOULD OCCUR LATER               
TONIGHT AS AIRMASS BECOMES DRIER...CAUSING SHSN TO DIMINISH...AND               
WINDS DECREASE...RESULTING IN LESS BLSN.                                        
&&                                                                              
.MARINE (FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)...                       
STRONG COLD FRONT PLOWING THROUGH ALONG WITH SFC LOW DEEPENING JUST             
EAST OF LK SUPERIOR RESULTS IN GALES 40-45 KNOTS FOR THE E 2/3 OF               
LAKE SUPERIOR THROUGH TONIGHT. WINDS DIMINISH BY SUNDAY AS HIGH                 
PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. SRLY WINDS ON MONDAY AHEAD OF            
LOW PRESSURE TROUGH SHOULD REACH 30 KNOTS...MAINLY OVER E 1/2 OF                
LAKE SUPERIOR.                                                                  
&&                                                                              
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
UPPER MICHIGAN...                                                               
  LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM EST                 
     THIS EVENING FOR MIZ084.                                                   
  BLIZZARD WARNING FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 AM EST SUNDAY                 
     FOR MIZ006-085.                                                            
  BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MIZ001-003.                  
  WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST /6 PM CST/ THIS EVENING                   
     FOR MIZ002-009.                                                            
  WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 AM EST                    
     SUNDAY FOR MIZ007.                                                         
  LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 AM EST                 
     SUNDAY FOR MIZ004.                                                         
  WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 AM EST                      
     SUNDAY FOR MIZ005.                                                         
  WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 AM EST                     
     SUNDAY FOR MIZ013-014.                                                     
LAKE SUPERIOR...                                                                
  GALE WARNING FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 AM EST SUNDAY FOR                   
     LSZ248>251-265>267.                                                        
  GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR LSZ263-264.                     
  GALE WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST SUNDAY FOR LSZ242>245.                            
  GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST /6 PM CST/ THIS EVENING FOR LSZ241.               
LAKE MICHIGAN...                                                                
  GALE WARNING FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 1 AM EST SUNDAY FOR                  
     LMZ221-250.                                                                
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
DISCUSSION...KC                                                                 
AVIATION...JLA                                                                  
MARINE...JLA                                                                    
</pre> mi                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
355 AM EST SAT DEC 6 2008                                                       
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
00Z RAOBS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW ERN TROF/WRN RDG              
CONFIGURATION OVER NAMERICA. A PAIR OF STRONG SHRTWVS NOTED DIGGING             
SEWD INTO THE TROF IN THE NW FLOW ALF BTWN THESE TWO LARGER SCALE               
FEATURES. THE FIRST SHRTWV IS SLIDING INTO IA...AND THE SECOND IS               
MOVING THRU NW ONTARIO. STRONG NW WINDS ALF WITH 00Z H3/H5/H7 WINDS             
AS HI AS 150KT/90KT/60KT NOTED ON ACYC SIDE OF FIRST SHRTWV. GENERAL            
LLVL SW FLOW AHEAD OF ACCOMPANYING SFC-H85 TROF IN MN AND ARCTIC                
COLD FNT MOVING THRU NW MN/ADJOINING ONTARIO HAS CAUSED AREAS OF -SN            
ACRS NE MN/UPR MI AS ISENTROPIC LIFT/DPVA/H85-5 QVECTOR CNVGC HAS               
GRDLY SATURATED INITIALLY DRY AIRMASS OVER THE UPR GRT LK AS SHOWN              
ON THE 00Z GRB RAOB. 00Z INL SDNG SHOWS DEEP SATURATION THRU H3. THE            
HEAVIEST SN APPEARS TO BE JUST S OF UPR MI IN WI...WHERE DPVA/UPR               
DVGC AHEAD OF SRN SHRTWV/IN LEFT EXIT OF SUPPORTING JET MAX APPEAR              
TO BE SHARPEST. THERE IS EVIDENCE AN LES BAND IS FORMING OVER LK MI             
IN THE SW FLOW AHEAD OF THE SHRTWV COMPLEX. WINDS APPEAR TO HAVE                
ENUF OF A WLY COMPONENT TO FORCE THIS SN BAND INTO CHIP/MACK                    
COUNTIES OF FAR ERN UPR MI...BUT WL HAVE TO MONITOR IN CASE THE BAND            
DRIFTS MORE TO THE W. FARTHER UPSTREAM...00Z H85 TEMPS AS LO AS -21C            
AT YQD BEHIND ARCTIC COLD FNT. THE AIRMASS ALSO DRIEST OUT QUITE A              
BIT AS WELL WITH SFC DWPTS NEAR -10F/CLRG OF LINGERING LO CLD BEHIND            
FNT PUSHING SWD NEAR LK WINNIPEG IN NLY FLOW AHEAD OF ARCTIC HI PRES            
BLDG INTO SASKATCHEWAN. 00Z PWAT WAS 0.07 INCH AT YQD.                          
MAIN FCST CONCERNS THIS PACKAGE ARE GOING HEADLINES/EXPECTED LES AND            
BLSN INTO SUN.                                                                  
FOR TDAY...THE SECOND SHRTWV IN ONTARIO/ACCOMPANYING ARCTIC COLD FNT            
WL BE THE MAIN INFLUENCE ON WX ACRS CWA AS FIRST SHRTWV/ACCOMPANYING            
DYNAMICS WL BE PASSING TO THE S INTO THE LOWER LKS BY 12Z. IN ITS               
WAKE...THE ONTARIO SHRTWV WL DIG ACRS THE FA WITH ARCTIC COLD FROPA             
SOON AFT 12Z OVER THE NW AND ARND 18Z OVER THE SE. STILL EXPECTING A            
PD OF LK ENHANCED HEAVIER SHSN TO ACCOMPANY THE ARRIVAL OF THIS                 
FEATURE OVER AT LEAST THE ZNS NEAR LK SUP AS GUIDANCE SHOWS DPVA/               
H85-5 QVECTOR CNVGC/UPR DVGC/DEEP MSTR LINGERING UNTIL DYNAMICS/DEEP            
MSTR PASS TO THE E AFT 18Z. THE PRESENCE OF SHARP UVV WITHIN THE                
PRIME SN GROWTH LYR ALSO SUGS A PD OF HEAVY SN. CYC NLY FLOW PROGGED            
TO INCREASE IN THE WAKE OF THE FNT...WITH H925 WINDS RISING TO                  
35-40KT PRODUCING STRONG CAD/LLVL DESTABILIZATION. THESE STRONG                 
WINDS WILL FRAGMENT THE SNOW FLAKES INTO A MORE POWDERY SN WITH                 
ARRIVAL OF COLDER/DRIER AIR IN THE AFTN. THE RESULT WILL BE A MORE              
EFFICIENT REDUCTION IN VSBY...WITH WDSPRD BLSN EVEN AFT THE SN                  
INTENSITY BEGINS TO DIMINISH. LK ENHANCED SN WL EVOLVE TO PURE LES              
BY LATER IN THE DAY AS H85 TEMPS BOTTOM OUT ARND -18C OVER LK SUP BY            
00Z SUN. THE STRONG NNW WINDS...STRONGEST OVER THE CNTRL ZNS...WL               
PUSH THE SHSN FARTHER INLAND INTO DELTA/SRN SCHOOLCRAFT COUNTIES.               
OTRW...EXPECT HI TEMPS IN THE MRNG OVER THE W HALF...WITH THE                   
MERCURY FALLING OFF IN THE AFTN WITH ARRIVAL OF COLDER AIR.                     
LOOK FOR PURE LES TNGT WITH RISING HGTS/DNVA/H85-5 QVECTOR DVGC IN              
WAKE OF DEPARTING SHRTWV/SFC LO. THE INTENSITY OF THE LES/BLSN OVER             
THE W SHOULD DIMINISH THRU THE NGT WITH THE ARRIVAL OF MUCH DRIER               
AIR FM THE NW AND APPROACH OF HI PRES RDG AS INVERSION HGTS FCST TO             
LOWER TO 3K FT DURING THE NGT FM IWD-CMX. BUT STILL EXPECT HI                   
SN/WATER RATIOS THROUGH THE END OF THE EVENT OVER THE W WITH TEMPS              
WITHIN THE INCRSGLY SHALLOW MOIST LYR ARND A FAVORABLE TEMP OF                  
-15C...ESPECIALLY WITH DIMINISHING WINDS/SN FLAKE FRAGMENTATION.                
BLIZZARD CONDITIONS OVER ALGER/NRN SCHOOLRAFT COUNTY SHOULD EASE AFT            
THE EVNG WITH H925 WINDS FCST TO DIMINISH TO ARND 25 KT BY 12Z SUN.             
LES BANDS SHOULD CONTINUE TO DRIFT FAR INTO DELTA/SRN SCHOOLCRAFT               
ZNS. OTRW...LONGER FETCH LENGTH ACRS ERN LK SUP WL MITIGATE IMPACT              
OF DRYING SOMEWHAT. LES CHART WOULD SUG 3-6 INCHES OF SN THRU THE               
NGT OVER THE E...WITH THE HEAVIER AMTS MOST LIKELY OVER ALGER/NRN               
SCHOOLCRAFT IN MOST PERSISTENT...FOCUSED LLVL CNVGC SHOWN BY                    
NAM12/LOCAL HI RES WRF-ARW ON E EDGE OF LAND BREEZE OFF THE INTERIOR            
W HALF. WL TEND TOWARD THE LO END OF MOS GUIDANCE FOR MIN TEMPS FCST            
CONSIDERING INTENSITY OF THIS SHRTWV/DRYNESS OF AIR UPSTREAM.                   
GOING HEADLINES SEEM TO HAVE THE SITUATION IN HAND FOR TDAY...BUT               
OPTED TO END THE WRNGS BY 00Z SUN OVER THE W ONCE STRONGEST WINDS               
(H925 WINDS ABV 25 KTS) ARE FCST TO DIMINISH FOLLOWING PASSAGE OF               
PRES RISE MAX TO THE SE. WL MAINTAIN GOING HEADLINES AS IS FOR THE E            
HALF.                                                                           
LES WL DIMINISH W-E ON SUN WITH ARRIVAL OF HI PRES RDG UNDER                    
CONTINUED RISING HGTS. AS LLVL FLOW BACKS AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE...              
THE LES OVER THE E WL TEND TO SHIFT TO THE E BUT END COMPLETELY FM              
MQT AND W. HOWEVER...LARGER SCALE NAM/GFS MIGHT BE TOO AGGRESSIVE               
WITH THIS SHIFT OVER THE E CONSIDERING STRONGER LLVL CNVGC SHOWN BY             
HIER RES CNDN/WRF-ARW RUNS TO BE MORE PERSISTENT OVER ALGER/NRN                 
SCHOOLCRAFT WITH LAND BREEZE OFF ONTARIO HOLDING UP THE PROGRESS.               
BUT SINCE WINDS/BLSN WL NO LONGER BE AN ISSUE...WL NOT EXTEND GOING             
HEADLINE EXPIRATION OF 15Z FOR THESE ZNS. OTRW...SUN WL BE ANOTHER              
VERY COLD DAY UNDER ARRIVING RDG AXIS AND 850 MB THERMAL TROF WITH              
H85 TEMPS RANGING FM ABOUT -15C OVER THE W TO -18C OVER THE E BY 00Z            
MON. MAX TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN IN THE TEENS AT MOST SPOTS EVEN THOUGH             
THERE WL BE SOME SUNSHINE OVER THE W AND CNTRL BEFORE MORE HI CLDS              
AHEAD OF NEXT SHRTWV APRCHG FM THE W INVADE LATER IN THE DAY.                   
AS FLOW BACKS TO MORE SSW ON SUN NGT AHEAD OF INCOMING SHRTWV FM THE            
PLAINS...LINGERING LES OFF LK SUP WL DIMINISH AND END OVER THE E                
WHILE MID CLD THICKENS WITH DVLPG ISENTROPIC LIFT SHOWN ON THE                  
275K-285K SFCS (H8 THRU H7). GFS AND ESPECIALLY THE NAM SHOW SHARPER            
ISENTROPIC LIFT/H85-5 QVECTOR CNVGC PASSING TO THE S OF THE FA. WITH            
SUPPORT FM THE CNDN MODEL AND NCEP PREFERENCE...WL FOLLOW THE                   
GFS/CNDN SOLN MOST CLOSELY. THESE MODELS SUG A SOMEWHAT HIER POP                
OVER THE SRN TIER...WITH BOTH ACTUALLY SHOWING SOME UPR DVGC IN LEFT            
EXIT OF SUPPORTING UPR JET STREAK. LOOKS LIKE MUCH OF THESE DYNAMICS            
WL BE NECESSARY TO SATURATE INITIALLY DRY AIRMASS...SO WL KEEP POPS             
IN THE CHC RANGE (20 OVER THE N TO 50 ACRS THE S) EXCEPT OVER SRN               
MNM COUNTY (60 THERE). ONE OTHER INTERESTING ASPECT OF THE FCST IS              
THE POTENTIAL FOR AN LES BAND TO DVLP OVER LK MI AND PUSH INTO THE              
ERN ZNS ON THE HEELS OF A SSW WIND AND H85 TEMPS ARND -13C OVER NRN             
LK MI AT 12Z MON. WL MAINTAIN GOING HIER POPS TO REFLECT THIS                   
POTENTIAL DOWNWIND OF LK MI. DIMINISHED POPS A BIT ON MON AFTN AS               
GFS/CNDN SHOW BETTER DYNAMICS SHIFTING TO THE E AND SOME DRYING ALF.            
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION (FOR THE 06Z TAF ISSUANCE)...                                         
LOW PRES TRACKING ESE ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION OVERNIGHT             
THRU THE MORNING WILL BRING -SN TO KCMX/KSAW. CONDITIONS SHOULD                 
TREND TOWARD PREVAILING MVFR THROUGH THE NIGHT. IN THE WAKE OF THE              
LOW...AN ARCTIC FRONT WILL SWEEP S ACROSS UPPER MI DURING THE                   
MORNING/EARLY AFTN...BRINGING A PERIOD OF HVY LAKE ENHANCED SHSN AND            
BLSN AS WINDS SHIFT SHARPLY TO STRONG NRLY. VLIFR CONDITIONS IN                 
SHSN/BLSN SHOULD OCCUR FOR AT LEAST A FEW HRS AT BOTH                           
SITES...BEGINNING AT KCMX EARLY/MID MORNING AND AT KSAW LATE                    
MORNING/EARLY AFTN. LIMITED IMPROVEMENT TO LIFR EXPECTED MID TO LATE            
AFTN. DURING THE EVENING...EXPECT FURTHER IMPROVEMENT TO IFR AT KCMX            
AND TO MVFR AT KSAW AS AIRMASS BECOMES DRIER...CAUSING SHSN TO                  
DIMINISH...AND WINDS DECREASE...RESULTING IN LESS BLSN.                         
&&                                                                              
.MARINE (FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)...                       
STRONG COLD FRONT PLOWING THROUGH ALONG WITH SFC LOW DEEPENING JUST             
EAST OF LK SUPERIOR RESULTS IN GALES 40-45 KNOTS FOR THE E 2/3 OF               
LAKE SUPERIOR THROUGH TONIGHT. WINDS DIMINISH BY SUNDAY AS HIGH                 
PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. SRLY WINDS ON MONDAY AHEAD OF            
LOW PRESSURE TROUGH SHOULD REACH 30 KNOTS...MAINLY OVER E 1/2 OF                
LAKE SUPERIOR.                                                                  
&&                                                                              
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
UPPER MICHIGAN...                                                               
  LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM EST                 
     THIS EVENING FOR MIZ084.                                                   
  BLIZZARD WARNING FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 AM EST SUNDAY                 
     FOR MIZ006-085.                                                            
  BLIZZARD WARNING FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM EST THIS EVENING              
     FOR MIZ001-003.                                                            
  WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST /6 PM CST/ THIS EVENING FOR               
     MIZ002-009.                                                                
  WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 AM EST                    
     SUNDAY FOR MIZ007.                                                         
  LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 AM EST                 
     SUNDAY FOR MIZ004.                                                         
  WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 AM EST SUNDAY               
     FOR MIZ005.                                                                
  WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 AM EST SUNDAY              
     FOR MIZ013-014.                                                            
LAKE SUPERIOR...                                                                
  GALE WARNING FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 AM EST SUNDAY FOR                   
     LSZ265>267.                                                                
  GALE WARNING FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 10 PM EST THIS EVENING                 
     FOR LSZ263-264.                                                            
  GALE WARNING FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 AM EST SUNDAY FOR                  
     LSZ248>251.                                                                
  GALE WARNING FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 1 AM EST SUNDAY FOR                    
     LSZ242>245.                                                                
LAKE MICHIGAN...                                                                
  GALE WARNING FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 1 AM EST SUNDAY FOR                  
     LMZ221-250.                                                                
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
DISCUSSION...KC                                                                 
AVIATION...ROLFSON                                                              
MARINE...JLA                                                                    
</pre> mi                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI                                        
1247 PM EST FRI DEC 5 2008                                                      
LATEST UPDATE...AVIATION...                                                     
.SYNOPSIS...(459 AM EST FRI DEC 5 2008)                                         
LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH ACROSS THE AREA                
DURING THE DAY TODAY AS A PORTION OF A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES             
ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. SNOW IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY ACROSS THE AREA            
THEN OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER ALBERTA THIS             
MORNING APPROACHES THE AREA. MOST AREAS WILL SEE AT LEAST A COUPLE              
OF INCHES OF SNOW FROM TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. HEAVIER                  
AMOUNTS OF SNOW ARE LIKELY NORTHWEST OF A LINE FROM HOLLAND TO                  
BALDWIN AS SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL ALLOW LAKE MICHIGAN TO ENHANCE                  
SNOWFALL.                                                                       
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM...(1015 AM EST FRI DEC 5 2008)                                      
(REST OF TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)                                                  
I HAVE UPGRADED THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY TO A LAKE EFFECT SNOW             
WARNING SINCE WE HAVE HAD SEVERAL REPORTS OF BETWEEN 8 TO 10 INCHES             
IN EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN KENT...EASTERN OTTAWA AND NORTHEAST ALLEGAN             
COUNTIES IN THE PAST THREE HOURS. ALSO...SINCE THE LATEST RUC SHOWS             
THE LOW LEVEL WIND CONVERGENCE CONTINUES THROUGH MID AFTERNOON AND              
SHIFTS NORTH ONLY SLIGHTLY... I EXPECTED THE TIME OF THE HEADLINES              
UNTIL 5 PM FOR BOTH THE WARNING AND ADVISORY COUNTIES.                          
OUR 88D RADAR CONTINUES TO SHOW ECHO INTENSITIES OVER 30 DBZ                    
CONTINUING TO DEVELOP OVER THE LAKE SHORE AREAS OF OTTAWA AND                   
ALLEGAN COUNTIES THAT THEN MOVE INLAND. GIVEN THE RUC KEEPS THE LIFT            
AND CONVERGENCE GOING INTO MID AFTERNOON OVER THE HEADLINE COUNTIES             
I THROUGH IT BEST TO KEEP THE HEADLINES GOING THROUGH 5 PM. I DO                
EXPECT THE SUNSHINE TO TURN THIS INTO A MORE CELLULAR EVENT BY LATE             
THIS MORNING. THAT WILL ONLY HELP BRING THE CONVECTION FARTHER EAST             
ACROSS THE CWA. ONE WAY OR THE OTHER ONLY OUR EXTREME NORTHEAST AND             
SOUTHERN COUNTIES WILL HAVE NEGLIGIBLE SNOWFALL THROUGH THE                     
AFTERNOON.                                                                      
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION....THERE WILL BE A BREAK IN THE ACCUMULATION                
POTENTIAL LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING AS THE                     
INVERSION HEIGHTS DROP WITH SHORT WAVE RIDGING ALOFT AND SFC RIDGING            
MOVING OVERHEAD. THIS WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS A SHORT WAVE OVER NRN              
ALBERTA THIS MORNING...WILL RACE SE TO ERN WI BY 12Z SAT. MID AND               
HIGH CLOUDS WILL MOVE IN AHEAD OF THE WAVE...ALLOWING FOR A DEEP                
LAYER OF MOISTURE OVERHEAD. SNOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE              
AREA FROM THE WNW AFTER MIDNIGHT. SW FLOW AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM WILL              
TRY TO ADVECT SOME WARMER AIR IN...HOWEVER H850 TEMPS ARE EXPECTED              
TO WARM ONLY TO AROUND -9 TO -10C.                                              
PLENTY OF OVER-LAKE INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN AND WILL COMBINE                    
WITH THE SYNOPTIC FORCING TO ENHANCE SNOWFALL ACROSS THE NW CORNER              
OF THE CWFA. PAST CASES OF A SW FLOW SUCH AS THIS AND A GOOD DEAL OF            
LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE...BOTH SUPPORT HEAVIER SNOW ALONG AND NW OF A             
LINE FROM HOLLAND TO BALDWIN. MODELS SUPPORT A GENERAL 1-3/2-4 INCH             
TYPE OF EVENT ACROSS MOST OF THE CWFA. WITH THE DEEP MOISTURE...                
MODERATE OVER-LAKE INSTABILITY...AND THE BEST FORCING CLOSE TO THE              
DGZ...WARNING CRITERIA SNOWS ARE VERY POSSIBLE OVER THE NW. WE                  
EXPECT THAT AN ADVISORY WILL EVENTUALLY BE NEEDED SURROUNDING THE               
WATCH AREA. THE WINDOW OF BEST SNOW OVER THE NW LOOKS TO BE AFTER               
06Z TONIGHT AND THROUGH 18Z TOMORROW. AFTER 18Z SAT...THE FLOW                  
BECOMES NW BEHIND THE FRONT. ADDITIONAL SNOWS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE              
AFTER 18Z AS THE SNOW TRANSITIONS TO LAKE EFFECT. ENOUGH MOISTURE               
AND A FAVORABLE FLOW WILL KEEP THE POTENTIAL OF ACCUMULATING SNOW IN            
THROUGH THE EVENING SAT EVENING.                                                
AS THE FLOW BECOMES NW...THE SW COUNTIES WILL BEGIN TO SEE LAKE                 
EFFECT TAKE CHARGE. H850 TEMPS WILL FALL BACK DOWN TO AROUND -17C OR            
SO BY 12Z SUN. INVERSION HEIGHTS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN UP THROUGH              
10K FEET THROUGH A GOOD PORTION OF SAT NIGHT. THIS COMBINATION WILL             
BRING POTENTIAL FOR SOME HEAVIER LAKE EFFECT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS                 
SOUTHWEST OF A LINE FROM HOLLAND TO KALAMAZOO. WE CONTEMPLATED                  
ISSUING A WATCH FOR THIS AREA. HOWEVER WITH THE POTENTIAL OF                    
SIGNIFICANT ACCUMS HOLDING OFF UNTIL MAINLY SAT NIGHT...WE FELT IT              
WAS BEST TO HOLD OFF FOR NOW WITH EVERYTHING ELSE GOING ON. LAKE                
EFFECT WILL THEN DIMINISH THROUGH THE DAY ON SUNDAY AS THE UPPER                
TROUGH PULLS AWAY AND SFC RIDGING MOVES IN.                                     
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM...(459 AM EST FRI DEC 5 2008)                                        
(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)                                                 
LONG TERM BEGINS WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE FOR SUNDAY NIGHT.                  
MODELS HAVE SHIFTED SOMEWHAT FOR NEXT WEEK...YIELDING A LESS                    
CONFIDENT FORECAST. FOR THAT REASON DID NOT MAKE MANY CHANGES TO THE            
GOING FORECAST. MODELS WERE BRINGING A HEALTHY CLIPPER THROUGH THE              
REGION ON MONDAY...NOW IT IS MORE OF AN INVERTED TROUGH. IN                     
ADDITION...THE STRONG LOW THAT THE GFS WAS ROLLING UP INTO EASTERN              
CANADA MID WEEK (WHICH WAS TUGGING VERY COLD AIR SOUTH OUT OF CANADA            
INTO THE GREAT LAKES) IS NO LONGER THERE. TO ADD FURTHER                        
COMPLEXITY...ON THURSDAY MORNING...THE GFS HAS A 1004MB LOW DROPPING            
OUT OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS...WHEREAS THE EURO HAS A SPRAWLING HIGH              
BUILDING IN. SUFFICE IT TO SAY CONFIDENCE IS LOW.                               
IT DOES STILL LOOK TO BE A COLDER THAN NORMAL PERIOD...WITH CHANCES             
AT LAKE EFFECT SNOW. HOPING FOR MORE IN THE WAY OF MODEL CONSISTENCY            
OFF THE 12Z MODEL RUNS.                                                         
&&                                                                              
.MARINE...(459 AM EST FRI DEC 5 2008)                                           
HAVE GONE AHEAD AND HOISTED A GALE WARNING FOR THE PERIOD FROM                  
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT THROUGH MOST OF SATURDAY NIGHT. WINDS REMAIN IN               
THE 15 TO 25 KNOT RANGE THIS MORNING AT THE OBSERVATION SITES AT BIG            
SABLE AND THE MUSKEGON GLERL. WINDS WILL PICK UP THIS EVENING AHEAD             
OF THE INCOMING SYSTEM THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH ON SATURDAY. MODELS               
INDICATE THAT WE WILL BE ABLE TO MIX A PORTION OF THE 40+ KNOT                  
SOUTHWEST WIND CORE AROUND 2K FEET BEGINNING AFTER 00Z THIS EVENING.            
THERE MAY BE A BRIEF LULL WHERE WINDS DROP DOWN TO AROUND 25 KNOTS              
FOR A FEW HOURS ON SAT WHEN THE FRONT COMES THROUGH. HOWEVER                    
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL KICK UP TO GALES ONCE AGAIN AS THE FRONT PASSES            
AND COLDER AIR ADVECTS IN. FREEZING SPRAY WILL BE POSSIBLE ON                   
SATURDAY NIGHT...HOWEVER WATER TEMPS MAY BE A TAD TOO WARM PER LOCAL            
STUDIES. THIS CAN BE ADDRESSED MORE BY LATER SHIFTS.                            
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...(1247 PM EST FRI DEC 5 2008)                                        
THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO VERY SLOWLY DIMINISH               
TOWARD EVENING AS INVERSION HEIGHTS LOWER AND LIFT WITHIN THE SNOW              
GROWTH REGION WEAKENS.  HOWEVER...IFR OR EVEN PATCHY LIFR WILL                  
PERSIST IN THIS ACTIVITY UNTIL AROUND 02Z.  ALSO OF NOTE WILL BE THE            
BACKING WINDS...FROM WESTERLY TO SOUTHWEST BY EVENING.  THIS WILL               
HELP TAKE THE HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS AWAY FROM ALL THE TAF SITES                  
EXCEPT MKG BY SUNSET.                                                           
THERE SHOULD BE A LULL IN THE SNOWFALL FROM MID EVENING UNTIL THE               
WEE HOURS OF SATURDAY MORNING.  HOWEVER BY 08-10Z MORE SNOW WILL                
MOVE BACK IN AS A CLIPPER SYSTEM MOVES TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES.  THIS            
WILL BRING A BURST OF SNOW TO ALL TAF SITES THROUGH MUCH OF SATURDAY            
MORNING.  THE SNOWFALL WILL PERSIST INTO THE AFTERNOON ALONG THE                
LAKESHORE AS ANOTHER OF ROUND OF LAKE EFFECT IS GENERATED.                      
&&                                                                              
.HYDROLOGY...(459 AM EST FRI DEC 5 2008)                                        
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDRO ISSUES IN THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS TEMPERATURES                
EXPECTED TO GENERALLY BE BELOW FREEZING THROUGH THE NEXT WEEK.                  
LITTLE TO NO RUNOFF CAN BE EXPECTED INTO AREA STREAMS AND RIVERS. IT            
DOES APPEAR THAT WE WILL BUILD A SNOWPACK WITH LAKE EFFECT SNOW                 
SHOWERS EXPECTED MOST DAYS AND A FEW SYSTEMS MOVING THROUGH.                    
&&                                                                              
.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
MI...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING THROUGH 5 PM FOR KENT...OTTAWA AND                
ALLEGAN COUNTIES.                                                               
LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY THROUGH 5 PM FOR BARRY...VAN BUREN AND                
KALAMAZOO COUNTIES.                                                             
WINTER STORM WATCH FOR OTTAWA...MUSKEGON...OCEANA...MASON...                    
LAKE...AND NEWAYGO COUNTIES FROM 06Z SAT THROUGH 06Z SUN.                       
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY.                       
GALE WARNING IN EFFECT 00Z SATURDAY THROUGH 09Z SUNDAY.                         
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SYNOPSIS:     NJJ                                                               
SHORT TERM:   NJJ WDM                                                           
LONG TERM:    DUKE                                                              
MARINE:       NJJ                                                               
AVIATION:     JK                                                                
HYDROLOGY:    NJJ                                                               
</pre> mi                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
1207 PM EST FRI DEC 5 2008                                                      
UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR 18Z TAFS                                        
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
00Z RAOBS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW DEEP UPR TROF                 
CENTERED OVER ERN NAMERICA DOWNWIND OF RDG ALG THE W COAST. CORE OF             
ARCTIC COLD UNDER THE TROF AT 00Z WAS CENTERED NEAR THE CWA...WITH              
00Z H85 TEMP -22C AT INL AND H7 TEMP -25C AT GRB/APX. AT YQD...THE              
00Z H8/H7 TEMPS WERE -16C/-19C. OBVIOUSLY WITH THE LARGE AIR/LK SUP             
WATER TEMP DIFFERENTIAL...QUITE A BIT OF LES HAS BEEN FALLING IN THE            
FVRD SN BELTS IN THE LLVL WNW FLOW BTWN HI PRES OVER THE CNTRL                  
PLAINS AND LO PRES OVER NRN QUEBEC. MORE WSW LAND BREEZE WIND                   
COMPONENT WITHIN THE RELATIVELY UNMODIFIED ARCTIR AIRMASS OVER LAND             
APPEARS TO BE INTENSIFYING THE LLVL CNVGC WITH THE MORE NW FLOW OVER            
THE OPEN WATERS OF LK SUP AND INTENSIFIED THE SRN MOST BANDS                    
STREAMING INTO THE CWA NEAR THE PORCUPINE MTNS AND ALONG THE LK SUP             
SHORE E OF GRAND MARAIS. PRESENCE OF SOME MID LVL MSTR NOTED BY MID             
CLD/H85-75 MSTR SHOWN ON THE 00Z INL RAOB ASSOCIATED WITH A PAIR OF             
SHRTWVS DROPPING SEWD THRU ONTARIO MAY ALSO BE ENHANCING THE BANDS.             
ANOTHER SHRTWV APPEARS TO BE RIDING OVER THE WRN RDG WITH QUITE A               
BIT OF MSTR SHOWN ON WV IMAGERY IN ADVANCE OF THIS SYS SPILLING INTO            
THE NRN PLAINS/MN.                                                              
MAIN FCST CONCERNS THIS PACKAGE INCLUDE LES TRENDS/COVG/AMTS/GOING              
HEADLINES THRU TDAY. FOCUS FOR TNGT INTO THE WEEKEND CONCERNS                   
TIMING/IMPACT OF SHRTWV NOW MOVING OVER WRN RDG AND ANOTHER DIGGING             
SEWD FM NRN CAN.                                                                
FOR TDAY...HGTS ARE FCST TO RISE SLOWLY OVER THE UPR LKS WITH                   
WARMER AIR TO THE NW GRDLY INFILTRATING THE AREA. IN TANDEM WITH                
FALLING MSLP OVER SCNTRL CAN AHEAD OF SHRTWV RIDING OVER THE WRN                
RDG...THE LLVL FLOW IS FCST TO BACK MORE SW. SO LES BANDS WL BEGIN              
TO DRIFT MORE TO THE N...EXITING ALL BUT THE KEWEENAW BY THE AFTN.              
MAY BE ABLE TO CANX GOING WRNGS FOR ALGER/LUCE COUNTIES EARLY IF THE            
BANDS SHIFT N INTO THE LK...WL CHECK RADAR TRENDS AT FCST ISSUANCE.             
GFS/NAM/LOCAL WRF-ARW RUNS ALSO SUG FLOW WL BACK ENUF TO END                    
HEADLINES FOR THE KEWEENAW EARLY AS WELL. THE FLOW DOES NOT APPEAR              
TO BACK ENUF TO RAISE CONCERNS ABOUT AN LES BAND OFF LK IMPACTING               
LUCE/SRN SCHOOLCRAFT COUNTIES. OTRW...LOOKS LIKE ANOTHER DRY COLD               
DAY OVER THE INTERIOR. BUT HI CLDS NOW SPILLING INTO THE PLAINS/MN              
WL ARRIVE IN THE AFTN. CONSIDERING THE FRIGID HI TEMPS OBSVD IN THE             
NRN PLAINS YDAY AND THE LACK OF LK MODERATION WITH BACKING LLVL                 
FLOW...WL TEND TOWARD THE LO END OF MOS GUIANCE FOR HI TEMPS AS SUGD            
BY GFS FCST SDNGS.                                                              
TNGT...SW FLOW AHEAD OF SHRTWV NOW TOPPING WRN RDG AND DIGGING                  
SHARPLY SEWD TO IA BY 12Z SAT IS FCST TO DOMINATE. MEANWHILE...                 
ANOTHER SHRTWV MOVING QUICKLY SEWD THRU NW ONTARIO/ASSOCIATED SFC LO            
AND ARCTIC COLD FNT WL APRCH FM THE NW LATE. EXPECT SOME -SN                    
ASSOCIATED WITH ISENTROPIC LIFT ON THE 275K-285K SFC (H8-65) TO                 
BREAK OUT NW-SE IN ADVANCE OF THESE FEATURES. WITH ABOUT 1.0-1.5                
G/KG SPECIFIC HUMIDITY IN THE H7-75 LYR...EXPECT 1 TO 3 INCHES OF               
-SN TO FALL ACRS THE FA THRU THE NGT. A LAKE ENHANCED SN BAND OFF LK            
MI IS LIKELY TO DVLP...BUT THE FLOW APPEARS TO HAVE ENUF OF A WLY               
COMPONENT TO FOCUS THE HEAVIER SN INTO MACKINAC COUNTY SE OF ERY.               
FAIRLY SHARP DPVA/H85-5 QVECTOR CNVGC IS ALSO FCST TO ARRIVE AFT 06Z            
AHEAD OF THE NRN SHRTWV. SOME HEAVIER SN MAY DVLP LATE OVER THE W               
TOWARD 12Z WITH ARRIVAL OF ACCOMPANYING ARCTIC COLD FNT. ALTHOUGH               
THE TOTAL PCPN APPEARS WL BE RELATIVELY LGT...THE DEEP SATURATION               
SHOWN ON THE FCST SDNGS SUGS BUMPING UP POPS CLOSER TO THE HIER GFS             
MOS NUMBERS.                                                                    
SAT LOOKS TO BE A WINTRY DAY WITH BLIZZARD CONDITIONS PSBL FOR AT               
LEAST A TIME IN THE STRONG NLY FLOW FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF CLIPPER            
LO/ACCOMPANYING COLD FNT. LOCAL WRF-ARW RUN SUGS AN INTENSE SN BAND             
WL ACCOMPANY THE COLD FROPA...ESPECIALLY OVER THE NRN TIER WHERE                
THERE WL BE ENHANCEMENT OFF LK SUP/UPSLOPE COMPONENT TO THE NNW                 
FLOW...WITH H925 WINDS PROGGED TO PEAK AT 40 KTS IN THE WAKE OF THE             
FNT. STRONG WINDS WL LIKELY FRAGMENT THE SN FLAKES THAT WL BECOME               
INCRSGLY POWDERY WITH ARRIVAL OF COLDER/DRIER AIR IN THE AFTN. THE              
RESULT WL BE A MORE EFFICIENT REDUCTION IN VSBY. SUSPECT A BLIZZARD             
WRNG MIGHT BE NECESSARY FOR ALGER COUNTY...WHICH WL BE MOST EXPOSED             
TO FCST NNW FLOW FOR THE LONGEST PD OF TIME. OTRW...HOISTED WATCH               
FOR GOGEBIC AND MQT COUNTIES WHILE CONTINUING OTHER GOING WATCHES.              
ADVYS WL LIKELY BE NECESSARY FOR DELTA/SRN SCHOOLCRAFT ZNS WITH STRG            
NNW FLOW BLOWING THE LES WELL INLAND.EXPECT MAX TEMPS ON SAT OVER               
THE W HALF IN THE MRNG...WITH SLOWLY FALLING TEMPS IN THE AFTN.                 
SAT NGT WL FEATURE PURE LES WITH RISING HGTS/DNVA/H85-5 QVECTOR DVGC            
IN WAKE OF DEPARTING SHRTWV/SFC LO. INTENSITY OF THE LES OVER THE               
FAR W SHOULD DIMINISH OVERNGT WITH APRCH OF HI PRES RDG/FCST INVRN              
BASE PROGGED TO SUBSIDE TO ARND H9 BY 12Z SUN AT IWD...BUT EXPECT HI            
SN/WATER RATIOS UNTIL THE END WITH TEMPS WITHIN THE INCRSGLY SHALLOW            
MOIST LYR ARND -15C. GOING EXPIRATION OF WATCH FOR THE WRN ZNS SEEMS            
APPROPRIATE. MAGNITUDE OF THE BLSN SHOULD ALSO DIMINISH W TO E  WITH            
GRDL WEAKENING OF THE PRES GRADIENT W TO E. BUT EXPECTED BLIZZARD               
CONDITIONS OVER ALGER COUNTY SHOULD LIKELY PERSIST INTO THE EVNG                
WITH H925 WINDS IN THE 35-40KT RANGE UNTIL ABOUT 03Z. LES WL                    
DIMINISH OVER THE E HALF ON SUN WITH ARRIVAL OF HI PRES RDG. SUN WL             
BE ANOTHER VERY COLD DAY UNDER ARRIVING RDG AXIS WITH H85 TEMPS IN              
THE -15C TO -18C RANGE. END OF WATCH LATE ON SUN APPEARS CONSISTENT             
WITH RECENT GUIDANCE. HI CLDS AHEAD OF YET ANOTHER CLIPPER LO WL                
INVADE DURING THE DAY. ADDED LO CHC POPS ON SUN NGT TO REFLECT DVLPG            
ISENTROPIC LIFT/MODEL QPF IN ADVANCE OF THIS CLIPPER. HIEST CHC POPS            
DOWNWIND OF LK MI WITH SOME MOISTENING/DESTABILATION PSBL OFF THE               
WATER.                                                                          
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION (FOR THE 18Z TAF ISSUANCE)...                                         
AT KCMX...LK EFFECT WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTH AND CONDITIONS                  
IMPROVE TO VFR FOR A TIME. NEXT LOW PRES SYSTEM DROPPING INTO THE               
UPPER LAKES REGION BRINGS MORE SNOW INTO THE REGION BY THIS EVENING.            
UPSTREAM OBS SUGGEST IFR VSBY WITH THE SNOW...THEN AS ARCTIC FRONT              
NEARS AND WINDS SHIFT TO NW...HEAVY LK EFFECT MAY RETURN YET AGAIN              
LATE TONIGHT. CONDITIONS DETERIORATE RAPIDLY TO VLIFR SAT MORNING               
WITH BLOWING SNOW/SNOW WITH WIND SHIFT AND STRONG WINDS BEHIND THE              
ARCTIC FRONT AND WILL LOOK TO STAY DOWN ALL DAY.                                
AT KSAW...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THRU THIS AFTN. MVFR/IFR             
CONDITIONS DEVELOP IN THE EVENING AS -SN SPREADS INTO THE AREA IN               
ASSOCIATION WITH APPROACHING LOW PRES SYSTEM. SNOW/WINDS DIMINISH               
ONLY VERY LATE TONIGHT. CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE FROM MVFR LATE              
SAT MORNING TO VLIFR WITH BLOWING SNOW AND STRONG WINDS BEHIND THE              
ARCTIC FRONT THAT COME THROUGH SAT MORNING AND WILL LOOK TO STAY LOW            
FOR A WHILE.                                                                    
&&                                                                              
.MARINE (FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)...                       
SW WINDS TODAY MAY REACH GALES BUT SHOULD ONLY BE A FEW GUSTS. ON               
SATURDAY...STRONG COLD FRONT PLOWING THROUGH WITH DEEPENING SFC LOW             
LEADS TO HIGH POTENTIAL OF GALES. WENT AHEAD WITH GALE WARNINGS AS              
CONFIDENCE IS HIGH FOR AT LEAST MARGINAL GALES. STRONG GALES TO 45              
KNOTS COULD OCCUR. IF TEMPS GET COLD ENOUGH...COULD SEE NEED FOR                
FREEZING SPRAY AS WELL. WINDS DIMINISH BY SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE               
MOVES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. SRLY WINDS ON MONDAY NOW LOOK TO STAY             
BLO GALES.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
UPPER MICHIGAN...                                                               
  LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR                    
     MIZ003.                                                                    
  LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR                   
     MIZ001.                                                                    
  WINTER STORM WATCH FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY                       
     MORNING FOR MIZ001>003-005-009.                                            
  WINTER STORM WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY                     
     AFTERNOON FOR MIZ006-007-085.                                              
LAKE SUPERIOR...                                                                
  GALE WARNING FROM 10 AM SATURDAY TO 7 AM EST SUNDAY FOR                       
     LSZ265>267.                                                                
  GALE WARNING FROM 7 AM TO 10 PM EST SATURDAY FOR LSZ263-264.                  
  GALE WARNING FROM 10 AM SATURDAY TO 6 AM EST SUNDAY FOR                       
     LSZ248>251.                                                                
LAKE MICHIGAN...                                                                
  GALE WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 AM EST SUNDAY FOR                    
     LMZ248-250.                                                                
  GALE WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE SATURDAY                      
     NIGHT FOR LMZ221.                                                          
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
DISCUSSION...KC                                                                 
AVIATION...GM                                                                   
MARINE...JLA                                                                    
</pre> mi                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI                                        
1015 AM EST FRI DEC 5 2008                                                      
LATEST UPDATE...SHORT TERM AND HEADLINE SECTION...                              
.SYNOPSIS...(459 AM EST FRI DEC 5 2008)                                         
LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH ACROSS THE AREA                
DURING THE DAY TODAY AS A PORTION OF A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES             
ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. SNOW IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY ACROSS THE AREA            
THEN OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER ALBERTA THIS             
MORNING APPROACHES THE AREA. MOST AREAS WILL SEE AT LEAST A COUPLE              
OF INCHES OF SNOW FROM TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. HEAVIER                  
AMOUNTS OF SNOW ARE LIKELY NORTHWEST OF A LINE FROM HOLLAND TO                  
BALDWIN AS SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL ALLOW LAKE MICHIGAN TO ENHANCE                  
SNOWFALL.                                                                       
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM...(1015 AM EST FRI DEC 5 2008)                                      
(REST OF TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)                                                  
I HAVE UPGRADED THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY TO A LAKE EFFECT SNOW             
WARNING SINCE WE HAVE HAD SEVERAL REPORTS OF BETWEEN 8 TO 10 INCHES             
IN EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN KENT...EASTERN OTTAWA AND NORTHEAST ALLEGAN             
COUNTIES IN THE PAST THREE HOURS. ALSO...SINCE THE LATEST RUC SHOWS             
THE LOW LEVEL WIND CONVERGENCE CONTINUES THROUGH MID AFTERNOON AND              
SHIFTS NORTH ONLY SLIGHTLY... I EXPECTED THE TIME OF THE HEADLINES              
UNTIL 5 PM FOR BOTH THE WARNING AND ADVISORY COUNTIES.                          
OUR 88D RADAR CONTINUES TO SHOW ECHO INTENSITIES OVER 30 DBZ                    
CONTINUING TO DEVELOP OVER THE LAKE SHORE AREAS OF OTTAWA AND                   
ALLEGAN COUNTIES THAT THEN MOVE INLAND. GIVEN THE RUC KEEPS THE LIFT            
AND CONVERGENCE GOING INTO MID AFTERNOON OVER THE HEADLINE COUNTIES             
I THROUGH IT BEST TO KEEP THE HEADLINES GOING THROUGH 5 PM. I DO                
EXPECT THE SUNSHINE TO TURN THIS INTO A MORE CELLULAR EVENT BY LATE             
THIS MORNING. THAT WILL ONLY HELP BRING THE CONVECTION FARTHER EAST             
ACROSS THE CWA. ONE WAY OR THE OTHER ONLY OUR EXTREME NORTHEAST AND             
SOUTHERN COUNTIES WILL HAVE NEGLIGIBLE SNOWFALL THROUGH THE                     
AFTERNOON.                                                                      
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION....THERE WILL BE A BREAK IN THE ACCUMULATION                
POTENTIAL LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING AS THE                     
INVERSION HEIGHTS DROP WITH SHORT WAVE RIDGING ALOFT AND SFC RIDGING            
MOVING OVERHEAD. THIS WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS A SHORT WAVE OVER NRN              
ALBERTA THIS MORNING...WILL RACE SE TO ERN WI BY 12Z SAT. MID AND               
HIGH CLOUDS WILL MOVE IN AHEAD OF THE WAVE...ALLOWING FOR A DEEP                
LAYER OF MOISTURE OVERHEAD. SNOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE              
AREA FROM THE WNW AFTER MIDNIGHT. SW FLOW AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM WILL              
TRY TO ADVECT SOME WARMER AIR IN...HOWEVER H850 TEMPS ARE EXPECTED              
TO WARM ONLY TO AROUND -9 TO -10C.                                              
PLENTY OF OVER-LAKE INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN AND WILL COMBINE                    
WITH THE SYNOPTIC FORCING TO ENHANCE SNOWFALL ACROSS THE NW CORNER              
OF THE CWFA. PAST CASES OF A SW FLOW SUCH AS THIS AND A GOOD DEAL OF            
LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE...BOTH SUPPORT HEAVIER SNOW ALONG AND NW OF A             
LINE FROM HOLLAND TO BALDWIN. MODELS SUPPORT A GENERAL 1-3/2-4 INCH             
TYPE OF EVENT ACROSS MOST OF THE CWFA. WITH THE DEEP MOISTURE...                
MODERATE OVER-LAKE INSTABILITY...AND THE BEST FORCING CLOSE TO THE              
DGZ...WARNING CRITERIA SNOWS ARE VERY POSSIBLE OVER THE NW. WE                  
EXPECT THAT AN ADVISORY WILL EVENTUALLY BE NEEDED SURROUNDING THE               
WATCH AREA. THE WINDOW OF BEST SNOW OVER THE NW LOOKS TO BE AFTER               
06Z TONIGHT AND THROUGH 18Z TOMORROW. AFTER 18Z SAT...THE FLOW                  
BECOMES NW BEHIND THE FRONT. ADDITIONAL SNOWS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE              
AFTER 18Z AS THE SNOW TRANSITIONS TO LAKE EFFECT. ENOUGH MOISTURE               
AND A FAVORABLE FLOW WILL KEEP THE POTENTIAL OF ACCUMULATING SNOW IN            
THROUGH THE EVENING SAT EVENING.                                                
AS THE FLOW BECOMES NW...THE SW COUNTIES WILL BEGIN TO SEE LAKE                 
EFFECT TAKE CHARGE. H850 TEMPS WILL FALL BACK DOWN TO AROUND -17C OR            
SO BY 12Z SUN. INVERSION HEIGHTS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN UP THROUGH              
10K FEET THROUGH A GOOD PORTION OF SAT NIGHT. THIS COMBINATION WILL             
BRING POTENTIAL FOR SOME HEAVIER LAKE EFFECT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS                 
SOUTHWEST OF A LINE FROM HOLLAND TO KALAMAZOO. WE CONTEMPLATED                  
ISSUING A WATCH FOR THIS AREA. HOWEVER WITH THE POTENTIAL OF                    
SIGNIFICANT ACCUMS HOLDING OFF UNTIL MAINLY SAT NIGHT...WE FELT IT              
WAS BEST TO HOLD OFF FOR NOW WITH EVERYTHING ELSE GOING ON. LAKE                
EFFECT WILL THEN DIMINISH THROUGH THE DAY ON SUNDAY AS THE UPPER                
TROUGH PULLS AWAY AND SFC RIDGING MOVES IN.                                     
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM...(459 AM EST FRI DEC 5 2008)                                        
(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)                                                 
LONG TERM BEGINS WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE FOR SUNDAY NIGHT.                  
MODELS HAVE SHIFTED SOMEWHAT FOR NEXT WEEK...YIELDING A LESS                    
CONFIDENT FORECAST. FOR THAT REASON DID NOT MAKE MANY CHANGES TO THE            
GOING FORECAST. MODELS WERE BRINGING A HEALTHY CLIPPER THROUGH THE              
REGION ON MONDAY...NOW IT IS MORE OF AN INVERTED TROUGH. IN                     
ADDITION...THE STRONG LOW THAT THE GFS WAS ROLLING UP INTO EASTERN              
CANADA MID WEEK (WHICH WAS TUGGING VERY COLD AIR SOUTH OUT OF CANADA            
INTO THE GREAT LAKES) IS NO LONGER THERE. TO ADD FURTHER                        
COMPLEXITY...ON THURSDAY MORNING...THE GFS HAS A 1004MB LOW DROPPING            
OUT OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS...WHEREAS THE EURO HAS A SPRAWLING HIGH              
BUILDING IN. SUFFICE IT TO SAY CONFIDENCE IS LOW.                               
IT DOES STILL LOOK TO BE A COLDER THAN NORMAL PERIOD...WITH CHANCES             
AT LAKE EFFECT SNOW. HOPING FOR MORE IN THE WAY OF MODEL CONSISTENCY            
OFF THE 12Z MODEL RUNS.                                                         
&&                                                                              
.MARINE...(459 AM EST FRI DEC 5 2008)                                           
HAVE GONE AHEAD AND HOISTED A GALE WARNING FOR THE PERIOD FROM                  
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT THROUGH MOST OF SATURDAY NIGHT. WINDS REMAIN IN               
THE 15 TO 25 KNOT RANGE THIS MORNING AT THE OBSERVATION SITES AT BIG            
SABLE AND THE MUSKEGON GLERL. WINDS WILL PICK UP THIS EVENING AHEAD             
OF THE INCOMING SYSTEM THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH ON SATURDAY. MODELS               
INDICATE THAT WE WILL BE ABLE TO MIX A PORTION OF THE 40+ KNOT                  
SOUTHWEST WIND CORE AROUND 2K FEET BEGINNING AFTER 00Z THIS EVENING.            
THERE MAY BE A BRIEF LULL WHERE WINDS DROP DOWN TO AROUND 25 KNOTS              
FOR A FEW HOURS ON SAT WHEN THE FRONT COMES THROUGH. HOWEVER                    
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL KICK UP TO GALES ONCE AGAIN AS THE FRONT PASSES            
AND COLDER AIR ADVECTS IN. FREEZING SPRAY WILL BE POSSIBLE ON                   
SATURDAY NIGHT...HOWEVER WATER TEMPS MAY BE A TAD TOO WARM PER LOCAL            
STUDIES. THIS CAN BE ADDRESSED MORE BY LATER SHIFTS.                            
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...(650 AM EST FRI DEC 5 2008)                                         
LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUE THIS MORNING...WITH CONDITIONS                
VARYING BETWEEN VFR (FLURRIES AND CEILINGS ABOVE 3000FT) AND MVFR               
(3-5SM -SHSN AND CEILINGS BETWEEN 1000 AND 3000FT). BRIEFLY IN THE              
HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS VISIBILITIES WILL DIP BELOW 3SM. EXPECT A                  
GRADUAL DOWNTURN IN SNOW INTENSITY TODAY WITH TAFS SITES MAINLY                 
SEEING VFR CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON. THE SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD LOSE              
BOTH COVERAGE AND INTENSITY THIS AFTERNOON.                                     
FOCUS WILL THEN SHIFT TO A CLIPPER SYSTEM DROPPING TOWARD THE GREAT             
LAKES FROM THE NORTHWEST TONIGHT. A WIDESPREAD LIGHT SNOW WILL MOVE             
ACROSS THE AREA BETWEEN 06Z AND 12Z. A LAKE ENHANCEMENT IS EXPECTED             
AT KMKG THOUGH LATE TONIGHT...WHICH WILL DIP VISIBILITIES BELOW A               
MILE. SIGNIFICANT BLOWING SNOW MAY DEVELOP THERE AS WELL WITH VERY              
GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS.                                                          
&&                                                                              
.HYDROLOGY...(459 AM EST FRI DEC 5 2008)                                        
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDRO ISSUES IN THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS TEMPERATURES                
EXPECTED TO GENERALLY BE BELOW FREEZING THROUGH THE NEXT WEEK.                  
LITTLE TO NO RUNOFF CAN BE EXPECTED INTO AREA STREAMS AND RIVERS. IT            
DOES APPEAR THAT WE WILL BUILD A SNOWPACK WITH LAKE EFFECT SNOW                 
SHOWERS EXPECTED MOST DAYS AND A FEW SYSTEMS MOVING THROUGH.                    
&&                                                                              
.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
MI...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING THROUGH 5 PM FOR KENT...OTTAWA AND                
ALLEGAN COUNTIES.                                                               
LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY THROUGH 5 PM FOR BARRY...VAN BUREN AND                
KALAMAZOO COUNTIES.                                                             
WINTER STORM WATCH FOR OTTAWA...MUSKEGON...OCEANA...MASON...                    
LAKE...AND NEWAYGO COUNTIES FROM 06Z SAT THROUGH 06Z SUN.                       
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY.                       
GALE WARNING IN EFFECT 00Z SATURDAY THROUGH 09Z SUNDAY.                         
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SYNOPSIS:     NJJ                                                               
SHORT TERM:   NJJ WDM                                                           
LONG TERM:    DUKE                                                              
MARINE:       NJJ                                                               
AVIATION:     DUKE                                                              
HYDROLOGY:    NJJ                                                               
</pre> mi                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
455 AM EST FRI DEC 5 2008                                                       
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
00Z RAOBS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW DEEP UPR TROF                 
CENTERED OVER ERN NAMERICA DOWNWIND OF RDG ALG THE W COAST. CORE OF             
ARCTIC COLD UNDER THE TROF AT 00Z WAS CENTERED NEAR THE CWA...WITH              
00Z H85 TEMP -22C AT INL AND H7 TEMP -25C AT GRB/APX. AT YQD...THE              
00Z H8/H7 TEMPS WERE -16C/-19C. OBVIOUSLY WITH THE LARGE AIR/LK SUP             
WATER TEMP DIFFERENTIAL...QUITE A BIT OF LES HAS BEEN FALLING IN THE            
FVRD SN BELTS IN THE LLVL WNW FLOW BTWN HI PRES OVER THE CNTRL                  
PLAINS AND LO PRES OVER NRN QUEBEC. MORE WSW LAND BREEZE WIND                   
COMPONENT WITHIN THE RELATIVELY UNMODIFIED ARCTIR AIRMASS OVER LAND             
APPEARS TO BE INTENSIFYING THE LLVL CNVGC WITH THE MORE NW FLOW OVER            
THE OPEN WATERS OF LK SUP AND INTENSIFIED THE SRN MOST BANDS                    
STREAMING INTO THE CWA NEAR THE PORCUPINE MTNS AND ALONG THE LK SUP             
SHORE E OF GRAND MARAIS. PRESENCE OF SOME MID LVL MSTR NOTED BY MID             
CLD/H85-75 MSTR SHOWN ON THE 00Z INL RAOB ASSOCIATED WITH A PAIR OF             
SHRTWVS DROPPING SEWD THRU ONTARIO MAY ALSO BE ENHANCING THE BANDS.             
ANOTHER SHRTWV APPEARS TO BE RIDING OVER THE WRN RDG WITH QUITE A               
BIT OF MSTR SHOWN ON WV IMAGERY IN ADVANCE OF THIS SYS SPILLING INTO            
THE NRN PLAINS/MN.                                                              
MAIN FCST CONCERNS THIS PACKAGE INCLUDE LES TRENDS/COVG/AMTS/GOING              
HEADLINES THRU TDAY. FOCUS FOR TNGT INTO THE WEEKEND CONCERNS                   
TIMING/IMPACT OF SHRTWV NOW MOVING OVER WRN RDG AND ANOTHER DIGGING             
SEWD FM NRN CAN.                                                                
FOR TDAY...HGTS ARE FCST TO RISE SLOWLY OVER THE UPR LKS WITH                   
WARMER AIR TO THE NW GRDLY INFILTRATING THE AREA. IN TANDEM WITH                
FALLING MSLP OVER SCNTRL CAN AHEAD OF SHRTWV RIDING OVER THE WRN                
RDG...THE LLVL FLOW IS FCST TO BACK MORE SW. SO LES BANDS WL BEGIN              
TO DRIFT MORE TO THE N...EXITING ALL BUT THE KEWEENAW BY THE AFTN.              
MAY BE ABLE TO CANX GOING WRNGS FOR ALGER/LUCE COUNTIES EARLY IF THE            
BANDS SHIFT N INTO THE LK...WL CHECK RADAR TRENDS AT FCST ISSUANCE.             
GFS/NAM/LOCAL WRF-ARW RUNS ALSO SUG FLOW WL BACK ENUF TO END                    
HEADLINES FOR THE KEWEENAW EARLY AS WELL. THE FLOW DOES NOT APPEAR              
TO BACK ENUF TO RAISE CONCERNS ABOUT AN LES BAND OFF LK IMPACTING               
LUCE/SRN SCHOOLCRAFT COUNTIES. OTRW...LOOKS LIKE ANOTHER DRY COLD               
DAY OVER THE INTERIOR. BUT HI CLDS NOW SPILLING INTO THE PLAINS/MN              
WL ARRIVE IN THE AFTN. CONSIDERING THE FRIGID HI TEMPS OBSVD IN THE             
NRN PLAINS YDAY AND THE LACK OF LK MODERATION WITH BACKING LLVL                 
FLOW...WL TEND TOWARD THE LO END OF MOS GUIANCE FOR HI TEMPS AS SUGD            
BY GFS FCST SDNGS.                                                              
TNGT...SW FLOW AHEAD OF SHRTWV NOW TOPPING WRN RDG AND DIGGING                  
SHARPLY SEWD TO IA BY 12Z SAT IS FCST TO DOMINATE. MEANWHILE...                 
ANOTHER SHRTWV MOVING QUICKLY SEWD THRU NW ONTARIO/ASSOCIATED SFC LO            
AND ARCTIC COLD FNT WL APRCH FM THE NW LATE. EXPECT SOME -SN                    
ASSOCIATED WITH ISENTROPIC LIFT ON THE 275K-285K SFC (H8-65) TO                 
BREAK OUT NW-SE IN ADVANCE OF THESE FEATURES. WITH ABOUT 1.0-1.5                
G/KG SPECIFIC HUMIDITY IN THE H7-75 LYR...EXPECT 1 TO 3 INCHES OF               
-SN TO FALL ACRS THE FA THRU THE NGT. A LAKE ENHANCED SN BAND OFF LK            
MI IS LIKELY TO DVLP...BUT THE FLOW APPEARS TO HAVE ENUF OF A WLY               
COMPONENT TO FOCUS THE HEAVIER SN INTO MACKINAC COUNTY SE OF ERY.               
FAIRLY SHARP DPVA/H85-5 QVECTOR CNVGC IS ALSO FCST TO ARRIVE AFT 06Z            
AHEAD OF THE NRN SHRTWV. SOME HEAVIER SN MAY DVLP LATE OVER THE W               
TOWARD 12Z WITH ARRIVAL OF ACCOMPANYING ARCTIC COLD FNT. ALTHOUGH               
THE TOTAL PCPN APPEARS WL BE RELATIVELY LGT...THE DEEP SATURATION               
SHOWN ON THE FCST SDNGS SUGS BUMPING UP POPS CLOSER TO THE HIER GFS             
MOS NUMBERS.                                                                    
SAT LOOKS TO BE A WINTRY DAY WITH BLIZZARD CONDITIONS PSBL FOR AT               
LEAST A TIME IN THE STRONG NLY FLOW FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF CLIPPER            
LO/ACCOMPANYING COLD FNT. LOCAL WRF-ARW RUN SUGS AN INTENSE SN BAND             
WL ACCOMPANY THE COLD FROPA...ESPECIALLY OVER THE NRN TIER WHERE                
THERE WL BE ENHANCEMENT OFF LK SUP/UPSLOPE COMPONENT TO THE NNW                 
FLOW...WITH H925 WINDS PROGGED TO PEAK AT 40 KTS IN THE WAKE OF THE             
FNT. STRONG WINDS WL LIKELY FRAGMENT THE SN FLAKES THAT WL BECOME               
INCRSGLY POWDERY WITH ARRIVAL OF COLDER/DRIER AIR IN THE AFTN. THE              
RESULT WL BE A MORE EFFICIENT REDUCTION IN VSBY. SUSPECT A BLIZZARD             
WRNG MIGHT BE NECESSARY FOR ALGER COUNTY...WHICH WL BE MOST EXPOSED             
TO FCST NNW FLOW FOR THE LONGEST PD OF TIME. OTRW...HOISTED WATCH               
FOR GOGEBIC AND MQT COUNTIES WHILE CONTINUING OTHER GOING WATCHES.              
ADVYS WL LIKELY BE NECESSARY FOR DELTA/SRN SCHOOLCRAFT ZNS WITH STRG            
NNW FLOW BLOWING THE LES WELL INLAND.EXPECT MAX TEMPS ON SAT OVER               
THE W HALF IN THE MRNG...WITH SLOWLY FALLING TEMPS IN THE AFTN.                 
SAT NGT WL FEATURE PURE LES WITH RISING HGTS/DNVA/H85-5 QVECTOR DVGC            
IN WAKE OF DEPARTING SHRTWV/SFC LO. INTENSITY OF THE LES OVER THE               
FAR W SHOULD DIMINISH OVERNGT WITH APRCH OF HI PRES RDG/FCST INVRN              
BASE PROGGED TO SUBSIDE TO ARND H9 BY 12Z SUN AT IWD...BUT EXPECT HI            
SN/WATER RATIOS UNTIL THE END WITH TEMPS WITHIN THE INCRSGLY SHALLOW            
MOIST LYR ARND -15C. GOING EXPIRATION OF WATCH FOR THE WRN ZNS SEEMS            
APPROPRIATE. MAGNITUDE OF THE BLSN SHOULD ALSO DIMINISH W TO E  WITH            
GRDL WEAKENING OF THE PRES GRADIENT W TO E. BUT EXPECTED BLIZZARD               
CONDITIONS OVER ALGER COUNTY SHOULD LIKELY PERSIST INTO THE EVNG                
WITH H925 WINDS IN THE 35-40KT RANGE UNTIL ABOUT 03Z. LES WL                    
DIMINISH OVER THE E HALF ON SUN WITH ARRIVAL OF HI PRES RDG. SUN WL             
BE ANOTHER VERY COLD DAY UNDER ARRIVING RDG AXIS WITH H85 TEMPS IN              
THE -15C TO -18C RANGE. END OF WATCH LATE ON SUN APPEARS CONSISTENT             
WITH RECENT GUIDANCE. HI CLDS AHEAD OF YET ANOTHER CLIPPER LO WL                
INVADE DURING THE DAY. ADDED LO CHC POPS ON SUN NGT TO REFLECT DVLPG            
ISENTROPIC LIFT/MODEL QPF IN ADVANCE OF THIS CLIPPER. HIEST CHC POPS            
DOWNWIND OF LK MI WITH SOME MOISTENING/DESTABILATION PSBL OFF THE               
WATER.                                                                          
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION (FOR THE 06Z TAF ISSUANCE)...                                         
WITH LAKE EFFECT -SHSN CONTINUING AT KCMX...EXPECT CONDITIONS TO                
VARY BTWN IFR AND LIFR THRU THE MORNING. THERE MAY BE SOME BRIEF                
PERIODS OF MVFR AND PERHAPS VFR...BUT THOSE PERIODS WILL BE VERY                
INFREQUENT. AS WINDS BACK MORE TO THE SW VERY LATE IN THE NIGHT INTO            
THE MORNING...ENHANCING LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE...EXPECT A PREVAILING             
PERIOD OF VLIFR CONDITIONS IN HEAVIER SHSN. AS WINDS CONTINUE TO                
BACK...EXPECT CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE TO MVFR LATE MORNING AND TO VFR             
IN THE AFTN. NEXT LOW PRES SYSTEM DROPPING INTO THE UPPER LAKES                 
REGION WILL BRING A RETURN TO MVFR CONDITIONS WITH -SN DURING THE               
EVENING.                                                                        
AT KSAW...WITH LOW-LEVEL W TO SW WINDS...LAKE EFFECT -SHSN WILL NOT             
BE AN ISSUE. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL OVERNIGHT THRU THE                
AFTN. MVFR CONDITIONS SHOULD DEVELOP IN THE EVENING AS -SN SPREADS              
INTO THE AREA IN ASSOCIATION WITH APPROACHING LOW PRES SYSTEM.                  
&&                                                                              
.MARINE (FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)...                       
SW WINDS TODAY MAY REACH GALES BUT SHOULD ONLY BE A FEW GUSTS. ON               
SATURDAY...STRONG COLD FRONT PLOWING THROUGH WITH DEEPENING SFC LOW             
LEADS TO HIGH POTENTIAL OF GALES. WENT AHEAD WITH GALE WARNINGS AS              
CONFIDENCE IS HIGH FOR AT LEAST MARGINAL GALES. STRONG GALES TO 45              
KNOTS COULD OCCUR. IF TEMPS GET COLD ENOUGH...COULD SEE NEED FOR                
FREEZING SPRAY AS WELL. WINDS DIMINISH BY SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE               
MOVES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. SRLY WINDS ON MONDAY NOW LOOK TO STAY             
BLO GALES.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
UPPER MICHIGAN...                                                               
  LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR MIZ002.              
  LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR                    
     MIZ003.                                                                    
  LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR                   
     MIZ001.                                                                    
  WINTER STORM WATCH FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY                       
     MORNING FOR MIZ001>003-005-009.                                            
  WINTER STORM WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY                     
     AFTERNOON FOR MIZ006-007-085.                                              
LAKE SUPERIOR...                                                                
  GALE WARNING FROM 10 AM SATURDAY TO 7 AM EST SUNDAY FOR                       
     LSZ265>267.                                                                
  GALE WARNING FROM 7 AM TO 10 PM EST SATURDAY FOR LSZ263-264.                  
  GALE WARNING FROM 10 AM SATURDAY TO 6 AM EST SUNDAY FOR                       
     LSZ248>251.                                                                
LAKE MICHIGAN...                                                                
  GALE WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 AM EST SUNDAY FOR                    
     LMZ248-250.                                                                
  GALE WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE SATURDAY                      
     NIGHT FOR LMZ221.                                                          
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
DISCUSSION...KC                                                                 
AVIATION...JLA                                                                  
MARINE...JLA                                                                    
</pre> mi                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN                              
1155 AM CST FRI DEC 5 2008                                                      
.UPDATE...FOR 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW                                     
&&                                                                              
.DISCUSSION.../ISSUED 234 AM CST FRI DEC 5 2008/                                
MAIN FORECAST CONCERN THIS MORNING IS THE ALBERTA CLIPPER WHICH                 
WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT AND ITS ASSOCIATED SNOWFALL AND              
GUSTY WINDS. THE GOING FORECAST HAD A GOOD HANDLE ON THE                        
SITUATION... WITH THE MAIN ADJUSTMENT BEING A BIT QUICKER TIMING                
OF THINGS. LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC UPPER AIR ANALYSES                
SHOW THE DEPARTING UPPER TROUGH AND SHORTWAVE TO OUR EAST WITH A                
PROMINENT UPPER RIDGE OFF THE WEST COAST. A SHORTWAVE FEATURE IS                
EVIDENT ON THE DOWNSTREAM SIDE OF THE RIDGE MOVING INTO CENTRAL                 
SASKATCHEWAN. THIS SHORTWAVE WILL DIVE SOUTHEAST OVER THE UPCOMING              
24 HOURS... WORKING TO PUSH A SURFACE LOW ACROSS CENTRAL AND                    
SOUTHERN CANADA WHILE DRIVING A COLD FRONT THROUGH OUR AREA. THE                
GFS AND NAM ARE REASONABLY SIMILAR ON THE OVERALL MASS FIELDS...                
BUT PREFERRED THE GFS MOISTURE FIELDS... PARTICULARLY ITS                       
DEPICTION OF SATURATION ON THE ISENTROPIC SURFACES. ESSENTIALLY                 
USED A BLEND OF THE GFS AND SREF GUIDANCE FOR THE FORECAST OVER                 
THE NEXT FEW DAYS. ONCE TONIGHT/S SYSTEM MOVES BY... THE NEXT                   
FEATURE OF INTEREST WILL BE ANOTHER SHORTWAVE MOVING IN ON                      
NORTHWEST UPPER FLOW AND ITS ASSOCIATED ALBERTA CLIPPER SURFACE                 
FEATURE... WHICH WILL SWING THROUGH THE AREA DURING THE LATE                    
SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY TIME FRAME. THE GOING FORECAST HAD A GOOD                 
HANDLE ON THE EXPECTATIONS FOR THAT SYSTEM IN COMPARISON TO THE                 
LATEST GUIDANCE... WITH ONCE AGAIN JUST SOME MINOR TWEAKS TO SPEED              
THE TIMING OF THINGS.                                                           
SCT-BKN LOW CLOUDS WERE PRESENT OVER MUCH OF THE AREA THIS                      
MORNING... LINGERING ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE LOW LEVEL THERMAL                   
TROUGH. AS WARM ADVECTION CONTINUES TO INCREASE THESE LOW CLOUDS                
WILL MOVE EAST AND/OR SCOUR OUT. HOWEVER... THEY WILL BE QUICKLY                
REPLACED BY RAPIDLY INCREASING MID AND HIGH CLOUDS THIS MORNING                 
DUE TO THE WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE NEXT SHORTWAVE. THIS SYSTEM              
WILL BE A QUICK HITTER... IMPACTING THE CWFA FROM NORTHWEST TO                  
SOUTHEAST... PRIMARILY BETWEEN 21Z AND 06Z. DEEP LAYER SATURATION               
COMES INTO BETTER ALIGNMENT AS THE SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH THE                     
AREA... SO THE BETTER CHANCES FOR PCPN AND HIGHER SNOWFALL TOTALS               
WILL BE OVER THE NORTHEAST AND EASTERN PORTION OF THE AREA. THE                 
BULK OF THE FORCING WILL BE DUE TO ISENTROPIC ASCENT OWING TO                   
PRESSURE ADVECTION... ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE 925-500MB TROUGH                   
AXIS. USED THE 285K ISENTROPIC SURFACE AS A PROXY FOR THE ARRIVAL               
OF PCPN AND THE LOCATION OF HIGHEST POPS AND GREATEST PCPN. MIXING              
RATIOS ON THIS SURFACE NEAR 700MB LOOK TO BE ON THE ORDER OF 1-2                
G/KG... WHICH WOULD SUGGEST 2-4 INCHES FOR A 12-HOUR EVENT... BUT               
THE WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR THIS SYSTEM IS AROUND 4 OR 5 HOURS                
WHICH SUGGESTS MORE OF A 1-2 INCH EVENT FOR MOST LOCATIONS. QPF                 
FROM THE GFS IS GENERALLY BETWEEN ONE AND TWO TENTHS OF AN INCH...              
WHICH WOULD ALSO FALL INTO THAT BALLPARK. A LOOK AT FORECAST                    
SOUNDINGS AND LAPSE RATES... AS WELL AS EPV... DOES NOT SUGGEST A               
GREAT DEAL OF POTENTIAL ENHANCEMENT FROM STABILITY ARGUMENTS...                 
WITH THE BETTER INSTABILITY LOCATED AOA 15K FEET... WHICH IS WELL               
ABOVE THE DENDRITIC GROWTH LAYER WHICH IS AROUND 10K FT. LAPSE                  
RATES ARE ACTUALLY FAIRLY POOR IN THAT LAYER... WHICH DOES RESULT               
IN A DEEPER DENDRITIC GROWTH LAYER BUT ONE WHICH MAY NOT HAVE                   
AUGMENTED UPWARD MOTION DUE TO INSTABILITY. SO... IN TERMS OF                   
SNOWFALL RATIOS... WOULD BE TOUGH TO STRAY TO FAR FROM A                        
CLIMATOLOGICAL OR EXPECTED VALUE FOR THE GIVEN AIRMASS... WHICH IS              
PROBABLY CLOSER TO 14 TO 1. SO... WILL GENERALLY PAINT 1 TO 2                   
INCHES OF SNOWFALL... WITH SOME MAXES BETWEEN 2 AND 3 OVER THE                  
EASTERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA WHERE THE WINDOW OF                        
OPPORTUNITY WILL BE SLIGHTLY LONGER GIVEN A BETTER PERIOD OF DEEP               
LAYER SATURATION. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY                 
TODAY AS THE GRADIENT STRENGTHENS... ALTHOUGH THE STRONGEST WINDS               
WILL BE WITH THE POST-FRONTAL COLD ADVECTION LATER TONIGHT AND                  
SATURDAY MORNING WHEN NORTHWEST WINDS WILL GUST NEAR 30 MPH                     
WORKING TO BLOW AROUND THE NEW FALLEN SNOW. AT THIS POINT SNOWFALL              
TOTALS AND EXPECTED WINDS DURING THE TIME OF FALLING SNOW LOOK                  
LIKE THEY WILL NOT NECESSITATE AN ADVISORY... ALTHOUGH THIS WILL                
NEED TO BE MONITORED BY LATER SHIFTS.                                           
RIDGING AND ANTICYCLONIC FLOW LOOK TO BUILD IN QUICKLY BEHIND THE               
SYSTEM ON SATURDAY... WITH JUST SOME MORNING FLURRIES OVER THE                  
EAST AND OTHERWISE DECREASING CLOUDS THROUGH THE DAY. HOWEVER...                
IT WON/T TAKE LONG FOR RETURN FLOW TO SET BACK UP... WITH WARM                  
ADVECTION WORKING BACK IN BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND INCREASING                    
MARKEDLY SUNDAY NIGHT AS THINGS SATURATE THROUGH THE COLUMN. WILL               
MAINTAIN THE IDEA OF INCREASING POPS FROM WEST TO EAST SUNDAY                   
AFTERNOON AND SUNDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH CHANCE POPS. LATER FORECASTS               
WILL PROBABLY BE ABLE TO BUMP THE POPS UP FURTHER ONCE THE TIMING               
IS NAILED DOWN A BIT BETTER. THIS SHORTWAVE WILL SWING THROUGH ON               
MONDAY... DRIVING THE COLD FRONT THROUGH THE CWFA MONDAY AFTERNOON              
AND EVENING... WITH THE BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW QUICKLY BECOMING                    
ANTICYCLONIC ONCE AGAIN WHICH SHOULD BRING A QUICK END TO PCPN                  
MONDAY NIGHT. MADE NO ADJUSTMENTS TO THE GOING FORECAST BEYOND                  
MONDAY.                                                                         
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION.../18Z TAF ISSUANCE/                                                  
VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE RACING SOUTHEAST ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA THIS                   
AFTERNOON...SHOULD AFFECT MUCH OF MN FA BY 00Z SAT. CIGS ALREADY                
BEGINNING TO LOWER WESTERN AREAS.  PREVIOUS FCST LOOKED GOOD FOR                
TIMING...COMING IN THIS AFTERNOON KAXN-KRWF-KSTC AREAS AND MAINLY               
AFTER 00Z TO THE EAST.  WILL SEE 1-3 INCH SNOW ACROSS THE AREA                  
DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON/OVERNIGHT...WITH OCNL LIFR DURING THE                 
HEAVIER SNOW PERIODS OVER EASTERN AREAS. WIND TO INCREASE WITH                  
FROPA FIRST AT KAXN...LAST AT KEAU.  SOME GUSTS TO 28-30KT PSBL WITH            
FROPA KAXN-KRWF AND WITH FRESH SNOW BLSN COULD BECOME A PROBLEM.                
SNOW SHOULD END IN THOSE AREAS WITH SOME MVFR VSBYS PSBL FOR A TIME.            
LOW CLOUDS TO REMAIN THROUGH 18Z ACROSS THE REGION...POSSIBLY                   
BREAKING OUT OVER THE WEST INTO CENTRAL FA DURING THE AFTERNOON SAT.            
&&                                                                              
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
MN...NONE.                                                                      
WI...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
DWE/TRH                                                                         
</pre> mn                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN                              
602 AM CST FRI DEC 5 2008                                                       
.UPDATE...FOR 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW                                     
&&                                                                              
.DISCUSSION.../ISSUED 234 AM CST FRI DEC 5 2008/                                
MAIN FORECAST CONCERN THIS MORNING IS THE ALBERTA CLIPPER WHICH                 
WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT AND ITS ASSOCIATED SNOWFALL AND              
GUSTY WINDS. THE GOING FORECAST HAD A GOOD HANDLE ON THE                        
SITUATION... WITH THE MAIN ADJUSTMENT BEING A BIT QUICKER TIMING                
OF THINGS. LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC UPPER AIR ANALYSES                
SHOW THE DEPARTING UPPER TROUGH AND SHORTWAVE TO OUR EAST WITH A                
PROMINENT UPPER RIDGE OFF THE WEST COAST. A SHORTWAVE FEATURE IS                
EVIDENT ON THE DOWNSTREAM SIDE OF THE RIDGE MOVING INTO CENTRAL                 
SASKATCHEWAN. THIS SHORTWAVE WILL DIVE SOUTHEAST OVER THE UPCOMING              
24 HOURS... WORKING TO PUSH A SURFACE LOW ACROSS CENTRAL AND                    
SOUTHERN CANADA WHILE DRIVING A COLD FRONT THROUGH OUR AREA. THE                
GFS AND NAM ARE REASONABLY SIMILAR ON THE OVERALL MASS FIELDS...                
BUT PREFERRED THE GFS MOISTURE FIELDS... PARTICULARLY ITS                       
DEPICTION OF SATURATION ON THE ISENTROPIC SURFACES. ESSENTIALLY                 
USED A BLEND OF THE GFS AND SREF GUIDANCE FOR THE FORECAST OVER                 
THE NEXT FEW DAYS. ONCE TONIGHT/S SYSTEM MOVES BY... THE NEXT                   
FEATURE OF INTEREST WILL BE ANOTHER SHORTWAVE MOVING IN ON                      
NORTHWEST UPPER FLOW AND ITS ASSOCIATED ALBERTA CLIPPER SURFACE                 
FEATURE... WHICH WILL SWING THROUGH THE AREA DURING THE LATE                    
SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY TIME FRAME. THE GOING FORECAST HAD A GOOD                 
HANDLE ON THE EXPECTATIONS FOR THAT SYSTEM IN COMPARISON TO THE                 
LATEST GUIDANCE... WITH ONCE AGAIN JUST SOME MINOR TWEAKS TO SPEED              
THE TIMING OF THINGS.                                                           
SCT-BKN LOW CLOUDS WERE PRESENT OVER MUCH OF THE AREA THIS                      
MORNING... LINGERING ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE LOW LEVEL THERMAL                   
TROUGH. AS WARM ADVECTION CONTINUES TO INCREASE THESE LOW CLOUDS                
WILL MOVE EAST AND/OR SCOUR OUT. HOWEVER... THEY WILL BE QUICKLY                
REPLACED BY RAPIDLY INCREASING MID AND HIGH CLOUDS THIS MORNING                 
DUE TO THE WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE NEXT SHORTWAVE. THIS SYSTEM              
WILL BE A QUICK HITTER... IMPACTING THE CWFA FROM NORTHWEST TO                  
SOUTHEAST... PRIMARILY BETWEEN 21Z AND 06Z. DEEP LAYER SATURATION               
COMES INTO BETTER ALIGNMENT AS THE SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH THE                     
AREA... SO THE BETTER CHANCES FOR PCPN AND HIGHER SNOWFALL TOTALS               
WILL BE OVER THE NORTHEAST AND EASTERN PORTION OF THE AREA. THE                 
BULK OF THE FORCING WILL BE DUE TO ISENTROPIC ASCENT OWING TO                   
PRESSURE ADVECTION... ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE 925-500MB TROUGH                   
AXIS. USED THE 285K ISENTROPIC SURFACE AS A PROXY FOR THE ARRIVAL               
OF PCPN AND THE LOCATION OF HIGHEST POPS AND GREATEST PCPN. MIXING              
RATIOS ON THIS SURFACE NEAR 700MB LOOK TO BE ON THE ORDER OF 1-2                
G/KG... WHICH WOULD SUGGEST 2-4 INCHES FOR A 12-HOUR EVENT... BUT               
THE WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR THIS SYSTEM IS AROUND 4 OR 5 HOURS                
WHICH SUGGESTS MORE OF A 1-2 INCH EVENT FOR MOST LOCATIONS. QPF                 
FROM THE GFS IS GENERALLY BETWEEN ONE AND TWO TENTHS OF AN INCH...              
WHICH WOULD ALSO FALL INTO THAT BALLPARK. A LOOK AT FORECAST                    
SOUNDINGS AND LAPSE RATES... AS WELL AS EPV... DOES NOT SUGGEST A               
GREAT DEAL OF POTENTIAL ENHANCEMENT FROM STABILITY ARGUMENTS...                 
WITH THE BETTER INSTABILITY LOCATED AOA 15K FEET... WHICH IS WELL               
ABOVE THE DENDRITIC GROWTH LAYER WHICH IS AROUND 10K FT. LAPSE                  
RATES ARE ACTUALLY FAIRLY POOR IN THAT LAYER... WHICH DOES RESULT               
IN A DEEPER DENDRITIC GROWTH LAYER BUT ONE WHICH MAY NOT HAVE                   
AUGMENTED UPWARD MOTION DUE TO INSTABILITY. SO... IN TERMS OF                   
SNOWFALL RATIOS... WOULD BE TOUGH TO STRAY TO FAR FROM A                        
CLIMATOLOGICAL OR EXPECTED VALUE FOR THE GIVEN AIRMASS... WHICH IS              
PROBABLY CLOSER TO 14 TO 1. SO... WILL GENERALLY PAINT 1 TO 2                   
INCHES OF SNOWFALL... WITH SOME MAXES BETWEEN 2 AND 3 OVER THE                  
EASTERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA WHERE THE WINDOW OF                        
OPPORTUNITY WILL BE SLIGHTLY LONGER GIVEN A BETTER PERIOD OF DEEP               
LAYER SATURATION. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY                 
TODAY AS THE GRADIENT STRENGTHENS... ALTHOUGH THE STRONGEST WINDS               
WILL BE WITH THE POST-FRONTAL COLD ADVECTION LATER TONIGHT AND                  
SATURDAY MORNING WHEN NORTHWEST WINDS WILL GUST NEAR 30 MPH                     
WORKING TO BLOW AROUND THE NEW FALLEN SNOW. AT THIS POINT SNOWFALL              
TOTALS AND EXPECTED WINDS DURING THE TIME OF FALLING SNOW LOOK                  
LIKE THEY WILL NOT NECESSITATE AN ADVISORY... ALTHOUGH THIS WILL                
NEED TO BE MONITORED BY LATER SHIFTS.                                           
RIDGING AND ANTICYCLONIC FLOW LOOK TO BUILD IN QUICKLY BEHIND THE               
SYSTEM ON SATURDAY... WITH JUST SOME MORNING FLURRIES OVER THE                  
EAST AND OTHERWISE DECREASING CLOUDS THROUGH THE DAY. HOWEVER...                
IT WON/T TAKE LONG FOR RETURN FLOW TO SET BACK UP... WITH WARM                  
ADVECTION WORKING BACK IN BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND INCREASING                    
MARKEDLY SUNDAY NIGHT AS THINGS SATURATE THROUGH THE COLUMN. WILL               
MAINTAIN THE IDEA OF INCREASING POPS FROM WEST TO EAST SUNDAY                   
AFTERNOON AND SUNDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH CHANCE POPS. LATER FORECASTS               
WILL PROBABLY BE ABLE TO BUMP THE POPS UP FURTHER ONCE THE TIMING               
IS NAILED DOWN A BIT BETTER. THIS SHORTWAVE WILL SWING THROUGH ON               
MONDAY... DRIVING THE COLD FRONT THROUGH THE CWFA MONDAY AFTERNOON              
AND EVENING... WITH THE BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW QUICKLY BECOMING                    
ANTICYCLONIC ONCE AGAIN WHICH SHOULD BRING A QUICK END TO PCPN                  
MONDAY NIGHT. MADE NO ADJUSTMENTS TO THE GOING FORECAST BEYOND                  
MONDAY.                                                                         
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION.../12Z TAF ISSUANCE/                                                  
LOW-END VFR CIGS WILL SHIFT EAST OF THE TAF SITES THIS                          
MORNING...BUT BE REPLACED BY MID/HIGH CLOUDS SHORTLY AFTERWARD...AS             
THE NEXT CLIPPER SYSTEM DRAWS NEAR. HAVE SPED UP THE ARRIVAL OF                 
THE ASSOCIATED SNOWFALL WITH THIS SYSTEM...CONSISTENT WITH MODEL                
TRENDS. EXPECT SNOW TO REACH KAXN/KSTC AROUND 20Z...KRWF/KSMP                   
AROUND 22Z...AND KRNH/KEAU BY 00Z. EXPECT IFR VSBYS WITH THE                    
SNOWFALL...WITH OCCASIONAL DIPS TO THE LIFR CATEGORY THIS EVENING.              
EXPECT MAINLY MVFR CIGS WITH THE SNOWFALL. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS                
BEHIND THE FROPA WILL LIKELY RESULT IN SOME BLOWING SNOW TONIGHT                
AS WELL.                                                                        
&&                                                                              
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
MN...NONE.                                                                      
WI...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
LS/TRH                                                                          
</pre> mn                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN                              
234 AM CST FRI DEC 5 2008                                                       
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
MAIN FORECAST CONCERN THIS MORNING IS THE ALBERTA CLIPPER WHICH                 
WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT AND ITS ASSOCIATED SNOWFALL AND              
GUSTY WINDS. THE GOING FORECAST HAD A GOOD HANDLE ON THE                        
SITUATION... WITH THE MAIN ADJUSTMENT BEING A BIT QUICKER TIMING                
OF THINGS. LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC UPPER AIR ANALYSES                
SHOW THE DEPARTING UPPER TROUGH AND SHORTWAVE TO OUR EAST WITH A                
PROMINENT UPPER RIDGE OFF THE WEST COAST. A SHORTWAVE FEATURE IS                
EVIDENT ON THE DOWNSTREAM SIDE OF THE RIDGE MOVING INTO CENTRAL                 
SASKATCHEWAN. THIS SHORTWAVE WILL DIVE SOUTHEAST OVER THE UPCOMING              
24 HOURS... WORKING TO PUSH A SURFACE LOW ACROSS CENTRAL AND                    
SOUTHERN CANADA WHILE DRIVING A COLD FRONT THROUGH OUR AREA. THE                
GFS AND NAM ARE REASONABLY SIMILAR ON THE OVERALL MASS FIELDS...                
BUT PREFERRED THE GFS MOISTURE FIELDS... PARTICULARLY ITS                       
DEPICTION OF SATURATION ON THE ISENTROPIC SURFACES. ESSENTIALLY                 
USED A BLEND OF THE GFS AND SREF GUIDANCE FOR THE FORECAST OVER                 
THE NEXT FEW DAYS. ONCE TONIGHT/S SYSTEM MOVES BY... THE NEXT                   
FEATURE OF INTEREST WILL BE ANOTHER SHORTWAVE MOVING IN ON                      
NORTHWEST UPPER FLOW AND ITS ASSOCIATED ALBERTA CLIPPER SURFACE                 
FEATURE... WHICH WILL SWING THROUGH THE AREA DURING THE LATE                    
SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY TIME FRAME. THE GOING FORECAST HAD A GOOD                 
HANDLE ON THE EXPECTATIONS FOR THAT SYSTEM IN COMPARISON TO THE                 
LATEST GUIDANCE... WITH ONCE AGAIN JUST SOME MINOR TWEAKS TO SPEED              
THE TIMING OF THINGS.                                                           
SCT-BKN LOW CLOUDS WERE PRESENT OVER MUCH OF THE AREA THIS                      
MORNING... LINGERING ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE LOW LEVEL THERMAL                   
TROUGH. AS WARM ADVECTION CONTINUES TO INCREASE THESE LOW CLOUDS                
WILL MOVE EAST AND/OR SCOUR OUT. HOWEVER... THEY WILL BE QUICKLY                
REPLACED BY RAPIDLY INCREASING MID AND HIGH CLOUDS THIS MORNING                 
DUE TO THE WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE NEXT SHORTWAVE. THIS SYSTEM              
WILL BE A QUICK HITTER... IMPACTING THE CWFA FROM NORTHWEST TO                  
SOUTHEAST... PRIMARILY BETWEEN 21Z AND 06Z. DEEP LAYER SATURATION               
COMES INTO BETTER ALIGNMENT AS THE SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH THE                     
AREA... SO THE BETTER CHANCES FOR PCPN AND HIGHER SNOWFALL TOTALS               
WILL BE OVER THE NORTHEAST AND EASTERN PORTION OF THE AREA. THE                 
BULK OF THE FORCING WILL BE DUE TO ISENTROPIC ASCENT OWING TO                   
PRESSURE ADVECTION... ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE 925-500MB TROUGH                   
AXIS. USED THE 285K ISENTROPIC SURFACE AS A PROXY FOR THE ARRIVAL               
OF PCPN AND THE LOCATION OF HIGHEST POPS AND GREATEST PCPN. MIXING              
RATIOS ON THIS SURFACE NEAR 700MB LOOK TO BE ON THE ORDER OF 1-2                
G/KG... WHICH WOULD SUGGEST 2-4 INCHES FOR A 12-HOUR EVENT... BUT               
THE WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR THIS SYSTEM IS AROUND 4 OR 5 HOURS                
WHICH SUGGESTS MORE OF A 1-2 INCH EVENT FOR MOST LOCATIONS. QPF                 
FROM THE GFS IS GENERALLY BETWEEN ONE AND TWO TENTHS OF AN INCH...              
WHICH WOULD ALSO FALL INTO THAT BALLPARK. A LOOK AT FORECAST                    
SOUNDINGS AND LAPSE RATES... AS WELL AS EPV... DOES NOT SUGGEST A               
GREAT DEAL OF POTENTIAL ENHANCEMENT FROM STABILITY ARGUMENTS...                 
WITH THE BETTER INSTABILITY LOCATED AOA 15K FEET... WHICH IS WELL               
ABOVE THE DENDRITIC GROWTH LAYER WHICH IS AROUND 10K FT. LAPSE                  
RATES ARE ACTUALLY FAIRLY POOR IN THAT LAYER... WHICH DOES RESULT               
IN A DEEPER DENDRITIC GROWTH LAYER BUT ONE WHICH MAY NOT HAVE                   
AUGMENTED UPWARD MOTION DUE TO INSTABILITY. SO... IN TERMS OF                   
SNOWFALL RATIOS... WOULD BE TOUGH TO STRAY TO FAR FROM A                        
CLIMATOLOGICAL OR EXPECTED VALUE FOR THE GIVEN AIRMASS... WHICH IS              
PROBABLY CLOSER TO 14 TO 1. SO... WILL GENERALLY PAINT 1 TO 2                   
INCHES OF SNOWFALL... WITH SOME MAXES BETWEEN 2 AND 3 OVER THE                  
EASTERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA WHERE THE WINDOW OF                        
OPPORTUNITY WILL BE SLIGHTLY LONGER GIVEN A BETTER PERIOD OF DEEP               
LAYER SATURATION. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY                 
TODAY AS THE GRADIENT STRENGTHENS... ALTHOUGH THE STRONGEST WINDS               
WILL BE WITH THE POST-FRONTAL COLD ADVECTION LATER TONIGHT AND                  
SATURDAY MORNING WHEN NORTHWEST WINDS WILL GUST NEAR 30 MPH                     
WORKING TO BLOW AROUND THE NEW FALLEN SNOW. AT THIS POINT SNOWFALL              
TOTALS AND EXPECTED WINDS DURING THE TIME OF FALLING SNOW LOOK                  
LIKE THEY WILL NOT NECESSITATE AN ADVISORY... ALTHOUGH THIS WILL                
NEED TO BE MONITORED BY LATER SHIFTS.                                           
RIDGING AND ANTICYCLONIC FLOW LOOK TO BUILD IN QUICKLY BEHIND THE               
SYSTEM ON SATURDAY... WITH JUST SOME MORNING FLURRIES OVER THE                  
EAST AND OTHERWISE DECREASING CLOUDS THROUGH THE DAY. HOWEVER...                
IT WON/T TAKE LONG FOR RETURN FLOW TO SET BACK UP... WITH WARM                  
ADVECTION WORKING BACK IN BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND INCREASING                    
MARKEDLY SUNDAY NIGHT AS THINGS SATURATE THROUGH THE COLUMN. WILL               
MAINTAIN THE IDEA OF INCREASING POPS FROM WEST TO EAST SUNDAY                   
AFTERNOON AND SUNDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH CHANCE POPS. LATER FORECASTS               
WILL PROBABLY BE ABLE TO BUMP THE POPS UP FURTHER ONCE THE TIMING               
IS NAILED DOWN A BIT BETTER. THIS SHORTWAVE WILL SWING THROUGH ON               
MONDAY... DRIVING THE COLD FRONT THROUGH THE CWFA MONDAY AFTERNOON              
AND EVENING... WITH THE BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW QUICKLY BECOMING                    
ANTICYCLONIC ONCE AGAIN WHICH SHOULD BRING A QUICK END TO PCPN                  
MONDAY NIGHT. MADE NO ADJUSTMENTS TO THE GOING FORECAST BEYOND                  
MONDAY.                                                                         
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION.../06Z TAF ISSUANCE/                                                  
...ACCUMULATING SNOW/IFR CONDS EXPECTED LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING            
FRIDAY...                                                                       
FAIRLY QUIET WEATHER IN THE NEAR TERM WITH HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING               
TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE REGION. 2500 TO 4000FT CLOUDS CONTINUE TO               
FILL THE SKIES TONIGHT. LARGE BREAK IN THE CLOUDS NOW PASSING OVER              
CENTRAL MN AND WESTERN WI BUT SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS MORE 3000 TO              
4000 FT CLOUDS UPSTREAM HEADED THIS WAY. OPTED FOR MOSTLY BROKEN                
SKIES INTO THE MORNING HOURS. WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BECOME                  
SOUTHWESTERLY LATE TONIGHT AND THROUGH THE MORNING AHEAD OF AN                  
ADVANCING ALBERTA CLIPPER. EXCEPT FOR A FEW BOUTS OF 2500 TO 3000 FT            
CIGS TONIGHT VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL INTO THE EARLY/MID                     
AFTERNOON AT ALL SITES.                                                         
MID CLOUDS WILL RAPIDLY INCREASE FROM MORNING ONWARD AHEAD OF THE               
CLIPPER. THIS CLIPPER LOOKS TO BE BETTER ORGANIZED/STRONGER THAN                
RECENT SYSTEMS THUS WIDESPREAD SNOWFALL LOOKS MORE LIKELY. EXPECT A             
3 TO 5 HOUR WINDOW OF LOW CONDITIONS UNDER INTENSE SNOWFALL...ESPECIALLY        
AS THE SYSTEM ENTERS EAST CENTRAL MN AND WEST CENTRAL WI FRIDAY                 
EVENING...WITH LARGER WINDOW OF MVFR CONDS WITH LIGHTER SNOW. CEILINGS          
WILL QUICKLY FALL AS THE SYSTEM APPROACHES WITH SNOW STARTING SOON              
AFTER. SNOW SHOULD BEGIN AT KAXN BY LATE AFTERNOON AND MOVE                     
QUICKLY SOUTHEAST STARTING AT KSTC AND KRWF AFTER 23Z OR SO. KMSP               
AND KRNH WILL QUICKLY SEE DETERIORATING CONDITIONS AROUND/JUST                  
AFTER 00-01Z WITH KEAU STARTING AROUND 02-03Z. WILL NEED TO WATCH               
THIS TIMING AS IT MAY NEED TO BE ADJUSTED AN HOUR OR SO IN EITHER               
DIRECTION. SNOW SHOULD ACCUMULATE QUICKLY WITH AN INCH OR 2 AT                  
KAXN AND KRWF WITH 2 TO 3 AT KSTC/KRNH/KEAU. VISIBILITY IS                      
EXPECTED TO DROP TO 1 TO 2 SM AT KAXN/KSTC/KRWF AND TO LESS THAN 1              
SM AT KMSP/KRNH/KEAU. CIGS OF 500 TO 800 FEET ARE ALSO POSSIBLE AT              
THESE THREE SITES UNDER THE HEAVIEST SNOWFALL WITH CIGS                         
PREDOMINATELY BETWEEN 1000 AND 2000 FT OUTSIDE OF THE HEAVIEST                  
SNOW. WINDS WILL QUICKLY TURN WESTERLY TO NORTHWESTERLY AS THE                  
SNOW WINDS DOWN AND BECOME GUSTY IN THE WEST CREATING SOME BLOWING              
SNOW CONCERNS. HAVE INDICATED MVFR VIS IN THE BLSN AT                           
KAXN/KRWF/KSTC BUT WILL HAVE TO CONTINUE TO WATCH THIS THREAT.                  
LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES ALSO EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT.                    
&&                                                                              
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
MN...NONE.                                                                      
WI...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
TRH/MDB                                                                         
</pre> mn                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE                                        
1019 PM CST FRI DEC 5 2008                                                      
.UPDATE...                                                                      
CLOUD COVER AND MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER WILL KEEP LOW TEMPERATURES UP              
TONIGHT. VORT MAX HAS MOVED THROUGH WITH MID LEVEL FORCING AND                  
MIXED LIGHT PRECIPITATION ENDING. HAVE REMOVED PRECIPITATION FOR                
THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT.                                                     
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 256 PM CST FRI DEC 5 2008/                          
DISCUSSION...                                                                   
MID LEVEL COLD FRONT WILL DRAPE THROUGH NCNTL NEB THIS EVENING                  
ACTING AS A FOCUS FOR VERY LIGHT SNOW...POSSIBLY MIXED WITH RAIN                
BEFORE NIGHTFALL. THIS FRONT WILL DRAPE ACROSS THE NERN PORTION OF              
THE FCST AREA SATURDAY PRODUCING WIDESPREAD CLOUDINESS AND PERHAPS              
SOME LIGHT SNOW. THE FRONT AND WARM AIR ADVECTION BEGIN OPERATING               
SATURDAY NIGHT AS BOTH THE NAM AND GFS INDICATE LIGHT SNOW DEVELOPING           
SATURDAY NIGHT FOR A TIME. LESS THAN AN INCH OF SNOW IS EXPECTED.               
FOR SUNDAY...THE WARM AIR WINS OUT AS THE WARM FRONT PUSHES EAST.               
ALL AREAS SHOULD CLEAR OUT AT THE LOWER LEVELS BUT PERSISTENT MID               
AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THE             
WARM AIR SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR TEMPERATURES TO RISE INTO THE 40S             
ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA WITH 30S IN THE FAR ERN PTN OF THE FCST                 
AREA.                                                                           
MONDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL DROP THROUGH THE FCST AREA. THE ECMWF IS             
VERY ACTIVE SUGGESTING A FAIRLY WIDESPREAD RAIN-SNOW EVENT MONDAY AND           
MONDAY NIGHT. THE GFS...NAM12...NOGAPS AND GEM INDICATE THE BEST                
FORCING WILL BE ACROSS WRN KS AND ERN COLO. THE ECMWF HAS NOT BEEN              
FULLY DISCOUNTED SO 20 TO 30 POPS BLANKET THE FCST AREA MONDAY AND              
MONDAY NIGHT. LATER FCSTS CAN RAISE OF LOWER THE POP AS THE MODELS              
COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT. THE PROBLEM IS SOME FISHY UPPER LEVEL               
ENERGY ACROSS THE ERN PAC WHICH SOME MODELS PHASE FARTHER SOUTH VS              
THE ECMWF WHICH OPERATES FARTHER NORTH. IF THE ECMWF IS WRONG THEN              
ONLY SWRN NEB WILL GET PCPN FROM THIS SYSTEM.                                   
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...TEMPERATURES MODERATE TO SEASONABLE LEVELS AS           
A WARM FRONT DEVELOPS AND PUSHES EAST ACROSS NEB. THE FCST IS DRY               
DURING THIS TIME.                                                               
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...A WEAK COLD FRONT WOBBLES THROUGH THE FCST                
AREA...PRESUMABLY ACTING AS A FOCUS FOR SNOW SHOWERS. OUR BEST                  
GUESS IS 20S NORTH AND 30S SOUTH FOR HIGHS BUT THIS MAY BE TOO COLD.            
HPC SET TEMPERATURES IN THE 40S AND 50S THURSDAY WITH A COOL DOWN               
INTO THE 20S AND 30S FRIDAY. THESE GRIDS WERE DISCARDED FOR                     
SOMETHING CLOSER TO CLIMO...ATLEAST ON THURSDAY WHEN IT WAS OBVIOUS             
A COLD FRONT WOULD DROP THROUGH. CLEARLY THE ECMWF AND GFS ARE                  
WOBBLING THIS FAR OUT IN THE FCST. HOWEVER THE GFS ENSEMBLE SUPPORTS            
THE COOLER ECMWF.                                                               
AVIATION...                                                                     
MID CLOUDS CONTINUING TO INCREASE ACROSS ESPECIALLY IN THE KVTN                 
VCNTY THIS AFTERNOON...WITH CEILING HEIGHTS LOWERING WITH TIME.                 
SOUNDING PROFILES INDICATE A SUBSTANTIAL DRY LAYER BELOW 6K FT OR SO            
THAT WILL NEED TO COOL/MOISTEN BEFORE PRECIP WILL BE REALIZED AT THE            
SFC. WOULD EXPECT THAT ANY SN WILL BE VERY LIGHT AT BEST AT                     
KVTN...THEREFORE MAIN CONCERN WILL BE POTENTIAL FOR IFR CONDITIONS              
DUE TO CEILINGS. WITH BETTER FORCING INDICATED AT KVTN THAN                     
KLBF...WET BULB EFFECT SHOULD ALLOW FOR A LOW CLOUD FORMATION BY                
LATE EVENING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. IN FACT RH TIME HEIGHTS               
AND SOUNDING PROFILES FROM RUC/NAM/LOCAL WRF ARW SHOULD THE LOWEST              
LAYER CONTINUING TO BE SATURATED THRU 18Z FOR KVTN. NO PRECIP                   
MENTIONED FOR KVTN SINCE ANY SN WOULD BE VERY LIGHT...BETTER CHANCES            
FOR MORE FLURRIES FURTHER E. AS FOR KLBF...THOUGH CLOUD HEIGHTS WILL            
BE LOWERING...MOST SOUNDING PROFILES SHOW CLOUDS REMAINING ABOVE                
MVFR SO HAVE TRENDED TWD LOWER RANGE OF IFR FOR NOW.                            
&&                                                                              
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                        
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
POWER                                                                           
</pre> ne                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE                                        
256 PM CST FRI DEC 5 2008                                                       
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
MID LEVEL COLD FRONT WILL DRAPE THROUGH NCNTL NEB THIS EVENING                  
ACTING AS A FOCUS FOR VERY LIGHT SNOW...POSSIBLY MIXED WITH RAIN                
BEFORE NIGHTFALL. THIS FRONT WILL DRAPE ACROSS THE NERN PORTION OF              
THE FCST AREA SATURDAY PRODUCING WIDESPREAD CLOUDINESS AND PERHAPS              
SOME LIGHT SNOW. THE FRONT AND WARM AIR ADVECTION BEGIN OPERATING               
SATURDAY NIGHT AS BOTH THE NAM AND GFS INDICATE LIGHT SNOW DEVELOPING           
SATURDAY NIGHT FOR A TIME. LESS THAN AN INCH OF SNOW IS EXPECTED.               
FOR SUNDAY...THE WARM AIR WINS OUT AS THE WARM FRONT PUSHES EAST.               
ALL AREAS SHOULD CLEAR OUT AT THE LOWER LEVELS BUT PERSISTENT MID               
AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THE             
WARM AIR SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR TEMPERATURES TO RISE INTO THE 40S             
ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA WITH 30S IN THE FAR ERN PTN OF THE FCST                 
AREA.                                                                           
MONDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL DROP THROUGH THE FCST AREA. THE ECMWF IS             
VERY ACTIVE SUGGESTING A FAIRLY WIDESPREAD RAIN-SNOW EVENT MONDAY AND           
MONDAY NIGHT. THE GFS...NAM12...NOGAPS AND GEM INDICATE THE BEST                
FORCING WILL BE ACROSS WRN KS AND ERN COLO. THE ECMWF HAS NOT BEEN              
FULLY DISCOUNTED SO 20 TO 30 POPS BLANKET THE FCST AREA MONDAY AND              
MONDAY NIGHT. LATER FCSTS CAN RAISE OF LOWER THE POP AS THE MODELS              
COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT. THE PROBLEM IS SOME FISHY UPPER LEVEL               
ENERGY ACROSS THE ERN PAC WHICH SOME MODELS PHASE FARTHER SOUTH VS              
THE ECMWF WHICH OPERATES FARTHER NORTH. IF THE ECMWF IS WRONG THEN              
ONLY SWRN NEB WILL GET PCPN FROM THIS SYSTEM.                                   
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...TEMPERATURES MODERATE TO SEASONABLE LEVELS AS           
A WARM FRONT DEVELOPS AND PUSHES EAST ACROSS NEB. THE FCST IS DRY               
DURING THIS TIME.                                                               
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...A WEAK COLD FRONT WOBBLES THROUGH THE FCST                
AREA...PRESUMABLY ACTING AS A FOCUS FOR SNOW SHOWERS. OUR BEST                  
GUESS IS 20S NORTH AND 30S SOUTH FOR HIGHS BUT THIS MAY BE TOO COLD.            
HPC SET TEMPERATURES IN THE 40S AND 50S THURSDAY WITH A COOL DOWN               
INTO THE 20S AND 30S FRIDAY. THESE GRIDS WERE DISCARDED FOR                     
SOMETHING CLOSER TO CLIMO...ATLEAST ON THURSDAY WHEN IT WAS OBVIOUS             
A COLD FRONT WOULD DROP THROUGH. CLEARLY THE ECMWF AND GFS ARE                  
WOBBLING THIS FAR OUT IN THE FCST. HOWEVER THE GFS ENSEMBLE SUPPORTS            
THE COOLER ECMWF.                                                               
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
MID CLOUDS CONTINUING TO INCREASE ACROSS ESPECIALLY IN THE KVTN                 
VCNTY THIS AFTERNOON...WITH CEILING HEIGHTS LOWERING WITH TIME.                 
SOUNDING PROFILES INDICATE A SUBSTANTIAL DRY LAYER BELOW 6K FT OR SO            
THAT WILL NEED TO COOL/MOISTEN BEFORE PRECIP WILL BE REALIZED AT THE            
SFC. WOULD EXPECT THAT ANY SN WILL BE VERY LIGHT AT BEST AT                     
KVTN...THEREFORE MAIN CONCERN WILL BE POTENTIAL FOR IFR CONDITIONS              
DUE TO CEILINGS. WITH BETTER FORCING INDICATED AT KVTN THAN                     
KLBF...WET BULB EFFECT SHOULD ALLOW FOR A LOW CLOUD FORMATION BY                
LATE EVENING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. IN FACT RH TIME HEIGHTS               
AND SOUNDING PROFILES FROM RUC/NAM/LOCAL WRF ARW SHOULD THE LOWEST              
LAYER CONTINUING TO BE SATURATED THRU 18Z FOR KVTN. NO PRECIP                   
MENTIONED FOR KVTN SINCE ANY SN WOULD BE VERY LIGHT...BETTER CHANCES            
FOR MORE FLURRIES FURTHER E. AS FOR KLBF...THOUGH CLOUD HEIGHTS WILL            
BE LOWERING...MOST SOUNDING PROFILES SHOW CLOUDS REMAINING ABOVE                
MVFR SO HAVE TRENDED TWD LOWER RANGE OF IFR FOR NOW.                            
&&                                                                              
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                        
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
CDC/JWS                                                                         
</pre> ne                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC                                             
402 AM EST SAT DEC 6 2008                                                       
.SYNOPSIS...CHILLY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO NORTH CAROLINA                 
FROM THE WEST OVERNIGHT...QUICKLY MOVING OFFSHORE DURING THE DAY ON             
SATURDAY. A STRONG UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND SURFACE COLD FRONT               
WILL SWING EAST THROUGH THE AREA SATURDAY EVENING...BRINGING A                  
REINFORCING SHOT OF COLDER AND DRIER INTO THE REGION THROUGH MONDAY.            
&&                                                                              
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...                                                 
AS OF 300 AM SATURDAY...                                                        
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE AREA WILL RESULT IN SOME SUN THROUGH            
THE LATE MORNING. CLOUDINESS WILL INCREASE FROM THE NORTHWEST... AS             
A LOW PRESSURE CENTER OVER THE GREAT LAKES WITH ITS ASSOCIATED COLD             
FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION FROM THE NORTH THIS AFTERNOON AND SWEEPS            
ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT.                                                        
THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS... SOUNDING DATA DOES SHOW             
THE GFS HAS SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE DURING THE AFTERNOON AROUND 5               
THOUSAND FEET... WHILE THE NAM IS SOMEWHAT DRY THROUGH THE COLUMN.              
THE CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION WILL REMAIN IN THE SLIGHT CHANCE                    
CATEGORY... AND WILL KEEP THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN OR SNOW ACROSS              
THE NORTHERN PORTION SINCE PASSING THROUGH VERY DRY...COLD AIR AT               
THE SURFACE A FEW FLAKES MAY MAKE TO THE SURFACE.                               
HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 40S IN THE NORTHWEST TO THE LOWER 50S             
IN THE SOUTHEAST. LOWS TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 20S ACROSS               
THE NORTHWEST TO THE  MID 30S OVER THE SOUTHEAST.                               
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...                                    
AS OF 310 AM SATURDAY...                                                        
POLAR HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST ON            
SUNDAY. THIS SYSTEM COMBINED WITH STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO THE              
NORTH/NORTHEAST WILL RESULT IN STRONG GUSTY WINDS. SUSTAINED SURFACE            
WINDS WILL BE AROUND 15 MPH WITH POSSIBLE GUSTS TO AT LEAST 25 MPH.             
WITH THE STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION PREFER THE MET GUIDANCE... WITH              
HIGHS IN THE LOWER 40S NORTHWEST TO AROUND 50 IN THE SOUTHEAST. HIGH            
PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVER THE AREA TONIGHT. LOWS WILL BE IN THE 20S.            
AS THE SURFACE FEATURE MOVES EAST AND WINDS SHIFT TO THE SOUTH... WE            
CAN EXPECT AN INCREASE IN TEMPERATURES. THERE WILL ALSO BE AN                   
INCREASE IN MOISTURE AND CLOUDS DUE TO THE SOUTHERLY FLOW AT THE                
SURFACE... AND ALOFT AS WESTERLY FLOW ADVECTS MOISTURE EASTWARD FROM            
A DEVELOPING SYSTEM OVER TEXAS. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 40S TO            
LOWER 50S. CLOUDS COVER MONDAY NIGHT WILL HOLD TEMPERATURES IN THE              
30S.                                                                            
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...                                          
AS OF 400 AM...                                                                 
WHEELS QUICKLY FALL OFF THE WAGON AS SIGNIFICANT MODEL DIFFERENCES              
BEGIN TO APPEAR BEYOND 48 HOURS (MONDAY MORNING) AT 500 MILLIBARS.              
PLACEMENT AND STRENGTH OF SHORT WAVE ENERGY PROFOUNDLY AFFECT THE               
FORECAST AND CONFIDENCE PRETTY MUCH APPROACHES ZERO REGARDING THE               
LATER PERIODS (THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY).                                      
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WELL OFFSHORE TUESDAY MORNING WITH PRESSURE               
GRADIENTS TIGHTENING SURFACE AND ALOFT THROUGHOUT THE DAY. WITH                 
TEMPERATURES WARMING ALOFT AND SOUTHWEST FLOW INCREASING...                     
ISENTROPIC LIFT OVER THE SURFACE COOL POOL COULD PRODUCE RAIN.                  
LIMITED MOISTURE SEEMS TO BE THE LIMITING FACTOR PREVENTING RAIN                
CHANCES FROM GOING TO LIKELY OR HIGHER IN THIS FORECAST FOR TUESDAY.            
COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE MOUNTAINS TUESDAY NIGHT. WINDS INCREASE TO            
45 KNOTS OR HIGHER JUST OFF THE SURFACE WEDNESDAY AND GFS MODEL                 
HELICITY QUITE LARGE AT 12Z WEDNESDAY (GREATER THAN 350). LCL LESS              
THAN 2500 FEET. THE HOPE IS THAT AN EARLY RAIN AND LOW CLOUDINESS               
PROVIDE ENOUGH SURFACE STABILITY TO MAKE THIS A NON SEVERE EVENT.               
THIS IS THE CURRENT THINKING BUT THE MARGIN FOR ERROR IS SLIM. THIS             
EVENT WILL HAVE TO BE CLOSELY WATCHED. TIMING WOULD BE FOR A DAYTIME            
EVENT WEDNESDAY. HAVE RAISED RAIN CHANCES TO HIGH LIKELY WEDNESDAY              
WITH THE THOUGHT CHANCES WILL GO CATEGORICAL IN FUTURE FORECASTS.               
RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN EXCESS OF ONE HALF INCH EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.              
ECMWF FORECASTS ANOTHER GULF LOW TO LIFT NORTHEAST FRIDAY PRODUCING             
ANOTHER RAIN EVENT THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. ITS TRACK HAS THE LOW             
SOUTHEAST OF CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA WHICH COULD BE PROBLEMATIC FOR              
THE END OF THE EVENT REGARDING PRECIPITATION TYPE. AS STATED                    
EARLIER... CONFIDENCE IS LESS THAN LOW... AND WILL LEAVE SMALL RAIN             
CHANCES CURRENTLY FORECAST ALONE AT THIS TIME AS HAVE NO CONFIDENCE             
IN WHICH WAY TO SHIFT THEM.                                                     
EXPECTING TEMPERATURES TO RISE OVERNIGHT TUESDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF THE             
FRONT WITH LOW TEMPERATURES OCCURRING WELL BEFORE MIDNIGHT. GFS IS              
TOO DEEP WITH THE APPROACHING LOW AND THEREFORE ADVECTS TOO MUCH                
WARMTH INTO NORTH CAROLINA. HOWEVER TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S SUNRISE             
WEDNESDAY LIKELY FOR MOST OF CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA. AS FRONT SWEEPS            
THROUGH THE REGION... TEMPERATURES NOT LIKELY TO RISE MUCH AND THEN             
FALL DURING THE AFTERNOON... IF THE CURRENT TIMING HOLDS TRUE.                  
WEDNESDAY HIGHS IN THE FIFTIES.                                                 
MORNING LOWS FALL INTO THE MID TO UPPER 30S THURSDAY MORNING BEFORE             
DROPPING SIX TO EIGHT DEGREES FRIDAY MORNING. THURSDAY HIGHS IN THE             
40S WITH LOW 50S FRIDAY.                                                        
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION /09Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...                                   
AS OF 130 AM...                                                                 
CIRRUS LEVEL MOISTURE EARLY THIS MORNING SHOULD PUSH EAST BY MID                
MORNING. LARGE PATCH OF STRATUS NEAR 6000 FEET OVER THE NORTHERN                
FOOTHILLS AND NORTHWEST PIEDMONT WITH ISOLATED CEILINGS AT THIS                 
LEVEL AT TIMES WEST OF THE COASTAL PLAIN. ROCKY MOUNT WITH LOCALIZED            
LIFR CEILING AT TIMES UNTIL SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE.                              
RUC MODEL IS SHOWING STRATUS DISSIPATING TOWARD SUNRISE AS MID LEVEL            
WINDS BECOME PARALLEL TO THE MOUNTAINS AND THIS IS ACCEPTED.                    
MODELS MOSTLY IN AGREEMENT IN DEVELOPING A LOW OFF THE CAROLINA                 
COAST AS MOISTURE INCREASES ON SOUTHWEST WINDS ALOFT. FREEZING                  
LEVELS DROPPING BELOW 10000 FEET IN THE NORTH TONIGHT WITH TINY                 
PRECIPITATION CHANCES AFTER SUNSET... MAINLY NORTH OF HIGHWAY 64.               
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED SATURDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY NIGHT. COMPUTER              
MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A DEVELOPING STORM SYSTEM WELL TO OUR                   
SOUTHWEST TOWARD MID WEEK THAT MAY PRODUCE VARIOUS ADVERSE AVIATION             
CONDITIONS FROM TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND POSSIBLY BEYOND... SO             
AVIATION INTERESTS SHOULD STAY TUNED FOR LATER FORECASTS.                       
&&                                                                              
.FIRE WEATHER...                                                                
MARGINALLY ADVERSE FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ON SUNDAY.              
THE COMBINATION OF DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE AND STRONG HIGH PRESSURE              
BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST WILL PRODUCE SUSTAINED WINDS AROUND 15 MPH            
AND GUSTS TO AROUND 25 MPH ON SUNDAY. IN ADDITION... AS VERY DRY LOW            
LEVEL AIR SPILLS INTO THE AREA... RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL BOTTOM               
OUT AT 21-26 PERCENT IN THE EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON. THOSE WITH FIRE             
WEATHER INTERESTS SHOULD KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON THE LATEST FORECASTS               
AND CONDITIONS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.                                             
&&                                                                              
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
NONE.                                                                           
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SYNOPSIS...RHJ                                                                  
NEAR TERM...RHJ                                                                 
SHORT TERM...RHJ                                                                
</pre> nc                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC                                             
310 AM EST SAT DEC 6 2008                                                       
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
CHILLY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION FROM THE WEST...                
CONTINUE TO THE EAST TODAY... THEN MOVE OFFSHORE THIS EVENING. AN               
ALBERTA CLIPPER WITH ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE            
REGION THIS EVENING. COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL ONCE AGAIN TAKE ITS                
GRIP ON CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA ON SUNDAY.                                       
&&                                                                              
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...                                                 
AS OF 300 AM SATURDAY...                                                        
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE AREA WILL RESULT IN SOME SUN THROUGH            
THE LATE MORNING. CLOUDINESS WILL INCREASE FROM THE NORTHWEST... AS             
A LOW PRESSURE CENTER OVER THE GREAT LAKES WITH ITS ASSOCIATED COLD             
FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION FROM THE NORTH THIS AFTERNOON AND SWEEPS            
ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT.                                                        
THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS... SOUNDING DATA DOES SHOW             
THE GFS HAS SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE DURING THE AFTERNOON AROUND 5               
THOUSAND FEET... WHILE THE NAM IS SOMEWHAT DRY THROUGH THE COLUMN.              
THE CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION WILL REMAIN IN THE SLIGHT CHANCE                    
CATEGORY... AND WILL KEEP THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN OR SNOW ACROSS              
THE NORTHERN PORTION SINCE PASSING THROUGH VERY DRY...COLD AIR AT               
THE SURFACE A FEW FLAKES MAY MAKE TO THE SURFACE.                               
HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 40S IN THE NORTHWEST TO THE LOWER 50S             
IN THE SOUTHEAST. LOWS TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 20S ACROSS               
THE NORTHWEST TO THE  MID 30S OVER THE SOUTHEAST.                               
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...                                    
AS OF 310 AM SATURDAY...                                                        
POLAR HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST ON            
SUNDAY. THIS SYSTEM COMBINED WITH STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO THE              
NORTH/NORTHEAST WILL RESULT IN STRONG GUSTY WINDS. SUSTAINED SURFACE            
WINDS WILL BE AROUND 15 MPH WITH POSSIBLE GUSTS TO AT LEAST 25 MPH.             
WITH THE STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION PREFER THE MET GUIDANCE... WITH              
HIGHS IN THE LOWER 40S NORTHWEST TO AROUND 50 IN THE SOUTHEAST. HIGH            
PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVER THE AREA TONIGHT. LOWS WILL BE IN THE 20S.            
AS THE SURFACE FEATURE MOVES EAST AND WINDS SHIFT TO THE SOUTH... WE            
CAN EXPECT AN INCREASE IN TEMPERATURES. THERE WILL ALSO BE AN                   
INCREASE IN MOISTURE AND CLOUDS DUE TO THE SOUTHERLY FLOW AT THE                
SURFACE... AND ALOFT AS WESTERLY FLOW ADVECTS MOISTURE EASTWARD FROM            
A DEVELOPING SYSTEM OVER TEXAS. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 40S TO            
LOWER 50S. CLOUDS COVER MONDAY NIGHT WILL HOLD TEMPERATURES IN THE              
30S.                                                                            
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...                                          
AS OF 300 PM FRIDAY...                                                          
AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN IS STILL EXPECTED DURING THIS PORTION              
OF THE FORECAST. HOWEVER...SPECIFICS REMAIN DIFFICULT TO PIN DOWN               
DUE TO CONTINUED DIFFERENCES IN HOW THE LONG RANGE MODELS HANDLE                
NORTHERN/SOUTHERN STREAM PHASING. ON TUESDAY AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE IS             
EXPECTED TO DIG SOUTH THROUGH THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST...INTO THE FAR             
WESTERN GOMEX BY WED. THIS WILL HELP PUSH A FRONTAL ZONE TOWARD THE             
AREA FROM THE WEST...IN ADDITION TO ALLOWING A MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW             
ALOFT (FROM THE GOMEX) TO SETUP OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES. AS OF THE            
LATEST 12Z MODEL RUNS...WED LOOKS LIKE A BETTER CHANCE FOR PRECIP               
THAN TUE...ALTHOUGH QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY REMAINS THROUGH                  
MID/LATE WEEK. BOTH THE GFS/ECMWF SHOW THE UPPER LEVEL WAVE THAT                
DIGS INTO THE WESTERN GOMEX CLOSING OFF INTO AN UPPER LOW                       
THURSDAY...WHICH SUBSEQUENTLY MOVES EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN GOMEX              
AND THEN NORTHEAST THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST STATES...WITH A SFC LOW                
DEVELOPING IN THE GULF AND MOVING NORTHEAST ALONG THE SOUTHEAST                 
COAST ON THU/FRI. ALTHOUGH THE GFS/ECMWF ARE NOW SHOWING A MORE                 
SIMILAR PATTERN THROUGH MID/LATE NEXT WEEK...THERE ARE STILL TIMING             
DIFFERENCES...AND THERE IS ENOUGH UNCERTAINTY TO LEAVE THE EXTENDED             
FORECAST MORE OR LESS AS IS...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SOME MINOR                  
TWEAKING TO POPS AND TEMPS. WILL BASICALLY SHOW CHANCE POPS FROM TUE            
THROUGH FRI...WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY OR OVERCAST SKIES DURING THE ENTIRE            
PERIOD. TEMPERATURES REMAIN DIFFICULT TO FCST IN THIS PERIOD SINCE              
THEY WILL HIGHLY DEPEND ON THE TIMING OF FRONTAL PASSAGES...                    
ONSET/DURATION OF PRECIP...AND THE TRACK OF ANY SFC LOW THAT MAY                
DEVELOP BY MID/LATE WEEK. AT THIS TIME WILL SHOW NEAR NORMAL TEMPS              
ON TUE/WED...WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPS ON THU/FRI. -VINCENT                       
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...                                   
AS OF 130 AM...                                                                 
CIRRUS LEVEL MOISTURE EARLY THIS MORNING SHOULD PUSH EAST BY MID                
MORNING. LARGE PATCH OF STRATUS NEAR 6000 FEET OVER THE NORTHERN                
FOOTHILLS AND NORTHWEST PIEDMONT WITH ISOLATED CEILINGS AT THIS                 
LEVEL AT TIMES WEST OF THE COASTAL PLAIN. ROCKY MOUNT WITH LOCALIZED            
LIFR CEILING AT TIMES UNTIL SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE.                              
RUC MODEL IS SHOWING STRATUS DISSIPATING TOWARD SUNRISE AS MID LEVEL            
WINDS BECOME PARALLEL TO THE MOUNTAINS AND THIS IS ACCEPTED.                    
MODELS MOSTLY IN AGREEMENT IN DEVELOPING A LOW OFF THE CAROLINA                 
COAST AS MOISTURE INCREASES ON SOUTHWEST WINDS ALOFT. FREEZING                  
LEVELS DROPPING BELOW 10000 FEET IN THE NORTH TONIGHT WITH TINY                 
PRECIPITATION CHANCES AFTER SUNSET... MAINLY NORTH OF HIGHWAY 64.               
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED SATURDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY NIGHT. COMPUTER              
MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A DEVELOPING STORM SYSTEM WELL TO OUR                   
SOUTHWEST TOWARD MID WEEK THAT MAY PRODUCE VARIOUS ADVERSE AVIATION             
CONDITIONS FROM TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND POSSIBLY BEYOND... SO             
AVIATION INTERESTS SHOULD STAY TUNED FOR LATER FORECASTS.                       
&&                                                                              
.FIRE WEATHER...                                                                
MARGINALLY ADVERSE FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ON SUNDAY.              
THE COMBINATION OF DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE AND STRONG HIGH PRESSURE              
BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST WILL PRODUCE SUSTAINED WINDS AROUND 15 MPH            
AND GUSTS TO AROUND 25 MPH ON SUNDAY. IN ADDITION... AS VERY DRY LOW            
LEVEL AIR SPILLS INTO THE AREA... RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL BOTTOM               
OUT AT 21-26 PERCENT IN THE EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON. THOSE WITH FIRE             
WEATHER INTERESTS SHOULD KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON THE LATEST FORECASTS               
AND CONDITIONS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.                                             
&&                                                                              
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
NONE.                                                                           
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SYNOPSIS...RHJ                                                                  
NEAR TERM...RHJ                                                                 
SHORT TERM...RHJ                                                                
LONG TERM...VINCENT                                                             
FIRE WEATHER...BADGETT                                                          
</pre> nc                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC                                             
130 AM EST SAT DEC 6 2008                                                       
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
CHILLY HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST. THIS              
HIGH WILL QUICKLY MOVE EAST AND OFFSHORE BY LATE SATURDAY... AND                
THEN AN ALBERTA CLIPPER AND ATTENDANT SURFACE COLD FRONT SWINGS                 
THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC REGION SATURDAY EVENING. COLD HIGH PRESSURE            
WILL AGAIN BUILD INTO THE AREA ON SUNDAY.                                       
&&                                                                              
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...                                                 
AS OF 915 PM FRIDAY...                                                          
ONLY MINOR CHANGES TO GRIDDED DATABASE.                                         
OCCASIONAL SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDINESS...ASSOCIATED WITH THE RIGHT                
ENTRANCE DIVERGENCE REGION OF THE POLAR JET...WILL PRODUCE                      
MOSTLY CLEAR TO FAIR SKIES OVERNIGHT. MANUAL SURFACE ANALYSIS COLD              
FRONT HAS PUSHED OFFSHORE...WITH A WEAKENING 1027 MB SURFACE HIGH               
BUILDING IN FROM THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. THERE REMAINS A PROMINENT                
DEWPOINT DISCONTINUITY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...WITH DEWPOINTS IN             
THE MID TO UPPER TEENS IN THE NW PIEDMONT...WITH DEWPOINT ACROSS THE            
CENTRAL PIEDMONT AND COASTAL PLAINS STAYING UP IN THE UPPER 20S TO              
LOWER 30S. WINDS ARE LIGHT OR CALM ACROSS CENTRAL NC....AND THIS                
WILL SET THE STAGE FOR GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING...WITH A RATHER                 
LARGE SPREAD DUE TO THE LARGE DEWPOINT GRADIENT. EXPECT LOWS OF IN              
THE MID 20S NW PIEDMONT...TO NEAR FREEZING SOUTHEAST.                           
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...                                        
AS OF 235 PM FRIDAY...                                                          
FOR SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT: SATURDAY SHOULD BEGIN WITH A GOOD BIT              
OF SUNSHINE BUT WITH INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS TOWARD MIDDAY. A CLIPPER            
SYSTEM IS STILL EXPECTED TO DROP THROUGH THE MIDWEST LATE FRIDAY                
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING... THEN PASS THROUGH NC AND OFF COAST               
SATURDAY NIGHT. THE NAM REMAINS MORE SUBDUED WITH THIS VORTICITY                
MAXIMUM AS COMPARED TO THE GFS... WEAKENING IT IN FAVOR OF A                    
STRONGER MAXIMUM TO ITS NW... HOWEVER THERE HAS BEEN A GENERAL MODEL            
TREND TOWARD A STRONGER WAVE WITH MORE DYNAMIC LIFT AS IT                       
APPROACHES. THE 12Z WRF-ARW IS GENERATING LIGHT PRECIP AMOUNTS                  
ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL NC VERY LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THE                
EVENING... AND THE 12Z GFS HAS TRENDED TOWARD GREATER QPF AS WELL...            
GENERATING SEVERAL HUNDREDTHS LIQUID ACROSS THE ENTIRE PIEDMONT.                
GIVEN THIS TREND... WILL SLIGHTLY EXPAND AREALLY THE SLIGHT CHANCE              
POPS SATURDAY AFTERNOON... SWEEPING THEM EAST AND RAISING THEM TO               
20-30% SATURDAY EVENING. FORECAST WET BULB PROFILES ARE PRIMARILY               
BELOW FREEZING EXCEPT FOR THE LOWEST COUPLE THOUSAND FEET WHERE THE             
AIR IS ALSO MARKEDLY DRIER. BUT GFS FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW NEAR                
SATURATION UP TO -20C... SO A PRECIP TYPE OF LIGHT RAIN AT ONSET AND            
A MIXTURE OF LIGHT RAIN AND LIGHT SNOW IN THE EVENING NORTH OF                  
HIGHWAY 64 WILL BE RETAINED. THE LOW LEVEL DRY AIR AND APPARENT LACK            
OF CONCENTRATED STRONG FORCING FOR ASCENT SHOULD LIMIT AMOUNTS SO AS            
TO BE INSIGNIFICANT... HOWEVER IF IT APPEARS THAT LIFT WILL BE                  
BRIEFLY ENHANCED... WE MAY SEE A SHORT PERIOD OF MOSTLY SNOW MAINLY             
NEAR THE VA BORDER... BUT AGAIN THE BREVITY OF ANY SUCH OCCURRENCE              
SHOULD RENDER IT INSIGNIFICANT FOR TRAVELERS. THICKNESSES AND                   
STATISTICAL GUIDANCE AGREE ON HIGHS OF 45-52. LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT               
26-34 WITH INCREASING COLD ADVECTION BEHIND THE EXITING WAVE.                   
FOR SUNDAY: THE MID LEVEL LONGWAVE TROUGH AXIS SHIFTS TO OUR NE                 
SUNDAY MORNING AS THE POLAR HIGH BUILDS IN FROM THE NW... AND                   
CONSIDERABLE SUNSHINE IS EXPECTED. WITH RAPIDLY DEEPENING SURFACE               
PRESSURES OVER THE NORTHEAST STATES... THE RESULTING TIGHTENING MSLP            
GRADIENT WILL PRODUCE BLUSTERY SURFACE WINDS AROUND 15 MPH WITH                 
GUSTS TO AROUND 25 MPH POSSIBLE (SEE FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSION BELOW).            
WITH STRONG COLD ADVECTION AND CONSIDERING THE POLAR SOURCE OF THE              
INCOMING SURFACE HIGH... HAVE LOWERED HIGHS A BIT TO 41-48. -GIH                
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...                                     
AS OF 300 PM FRIDAY...                                                          
MONDAY:                                                                         
THE LATEST 12Z MODEL RUNS CONTINUE TO SHOW SFC HIGH PRESSURE                    
BUILDING ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE WEST ON SUNDAY NIGHT AND                      
MONDAY...WITH UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW ALOFT. CLEAR SKIES AND NEAR CALM              
WINDS WILL ALLOW EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL COOLING MON MORNING...AND                
EXPECT VERY CHILLY LOW TEMP READINGS IN THE LOWER/MID 20S. CLEAR                
SKIES WILL EVENTUALLY GIVE WAY TO INCREASING MID/UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS             
BY THE AFT/EVE AS UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTS DOWNSTREAM OF AN AREA            
OF LOW PRESSURE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE LOWER MIDWEST. FOR               
TEMPS...WENT WITH A BLEND OF MOS GUIDANCE AND THICKNESSES (1285-                
1295M AT 12Z MON UP TO 1310-1325M BY 00Z TUE)...WHICH SUGGEST HIGHS             
RANGING FROM THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S.                                          
TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY:                                                         
AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN IS STILL EXPECTED DURING THIS PORTION              
OF THE FORECAST. HOWEVER...SPECIFICS REMAIN DIFFICULT TO PIN DOWN               
DUE TO CONTINUED DIFFERENCES IN HOW THE LONG RANGE MODELS HANDLE                
NORTHERN/SOUTHERN STREAM PHASING. ON TUESDAY AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE IS             
EXPECTED TO DIG SOUTH THROUGH THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST...INTO THE FAR             
WESTERN GOMEX BY WED. THIS WILL HELP PUSH A FRONTAL ZONE TOWARD THE             
AREA FROM THE WEST...IN ADDITION TO ALLOWING A MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW             
ALOFT (FROM THE GOMEX) TO SETUP OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES. AS OF THE            
LATEST 12Z MODEL RUNS...WED LOOKS LIKE A BETTER CHANCE FOR PRECIP               
THAN TUE...ALTHOUGH QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY REMAINS THROUGH                  
MID/LATE WEEK. BOTH THE GFS/ECMWF SHOW THE UPPER LEVEL WAVE THAT                
DIGS INTO THE WESTERN GOMEX CLOSING OFF INTO AN UPPER LOW                       
THURSDAY...WHICH SUBSEQUENTLY MOVES EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN GOMEX              
AND THEN NORTHEAST THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST STATES...WITH A SFC LOW                
DEVELOPING IN THE GULF AND MOVING NORTHEAST ALONG THE SOUTHEAST                 
COAST ON THU/FRI. ALTHOUGH THE GFS/ECMWF ARE NOW SHOWING A MORE                 
SIMILAR PATTERN THROUGH MID/LATE NEXT WEEK...THERE ARE STILL TIMING             
DIFFERENCES...AND THERE IS ENOUGH UNCERTAINTY TO LEAVE THE EXTENDED             
FORECAST MORE OR LESS AS IS...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SOME MINOR                  
TWEAKING TO POPS AND TEMPS. WILL BASICALLY SHOW CHANCE POPS FROM TUE            
THROUGH FRI...WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY OR OVERCAST SKIES DURING THE ENTIRE            
PERIOD. TEMPERATURES REMAIN DIFFICULT TO FCST IN THIS PERIOD SINCE              
THEY WILL HIGHLY DEPEND ON THE TIMING OF FRONTAL PASSAGES...                    
ONSET/DURATION OF PRECIP...AND THE TRACK OF ANY SFC LOW THAT MAY                
DEVELOP BY MID/LATE WEEK. AT THIS TIME WILL SHOW NEAR NORMAL TEMPS              
ON TUE/WED...WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPS ON THU/FRI. -VINCENT                       
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...                                   
AS OF 130 AM...                                                                 
CIRRUS LEVEL MOISTURE EARLY THIS MORNING SHOULD PUSH EAST BY MID                
MORNING. LARGE PATCH OF STRATUS NEAR 6000 FEET OVER THE NORTHERN                
FOOTHILLS AND NORTHWEST PIEDMONT WITH ISOLATED CEILINGS AT THIS                 
LEVEL AT TIMES WEST OF THE COASTAL PLAIN. ROCKY MOUNT WITH LOCALIZED            
LIFR CEILING AT TIMES UNTIL SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE.                              
RUC MODEL IS SHOWING STRATUS DISSIPATING TOWARD SUNRISE AS MID LEVEL            
WINDS BECOME PARALLEL TO THE MOUNTAINS AND THIS IS ACCEPTED.                    
MODELS MOSTLY IN AGREEMENT IN DEVELOPING A LOW OFF THE CAROLINA                 
COAST AS MOISTURE INCREASES ON SOUTHWEST WINDS ALOFT. FREEZING                  
LEVELS DROPPING BELOW 10000 FEET IN THE NORTH TONIGHT WITH TINY                 
PRECIPITATION CHANCES AFTER SUNSET... MAINLY NORTH OF HIGHWAY 64.               
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED SATURDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY NIGHT. COMPUTER              
MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A DEVELOPING STORM SYSTEM WELL TO OUR                   
SOUTHWEST TOWARD MID WEEK THAT MAY PRODUCE VARIOUS ADVERSE AVIATION             
CONDITIONS FROM TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND POSSIBLY BEYOND... SO             
AVIATION INTERESTS SHOULD STAY TUNED FOR LATER FORECASTS.                       
&&                                                                              
.FIRE WEATHER...                                                                
MARGINALLY ADVERSE FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ON SUNDAY.              
THE COMBINATION OF DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE AND STRONG HIGH PRESSURE              
BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST WILL PRODUCE SUSTAINED WINDS AROUND 15 MPH            
AND GUSTS TO AROUND 25 MPH ON SUNDAY. IN ADDITION... AS VERY DRY LOW            
LEVEL AIR SPILLS INTO THE AREA... RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL BOTTOM               
OUT AT 21-26 PERCENT IN THE EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON. THOSE WITH FIRE             
WEATHER INTERESTS SHOULD KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON THE LATEST FORECASTS               
AND CONDITIONS HEADING THROUGH THE WEEKEND. -GIH                                
&&                                                                              
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
NONE.                                                                           
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SYNOPSIS...CBL                                                                  
NEAR TERM...CBL                                                                 
SHORT TERM...HARTFIELD                                                          
LONG TERM...VINCENT                                                             
FIRE WEATHER...BADGETT                                                          
</pre> nc                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND                                         
904 PM CST SAT DEC 6 2008                                                       
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
THE FCST IS ON TRACK...SO NO DRASTIC CHANGES ARE BEING MADE TO                  
IT. SFC PRESSURE FALLS HAVE STARTED ALONG/WEST OF THE VALLEY NOW                
WITH THE RIDGE AXIS AT 03Z NEAR A KTVF-KBWP LINE. THE COLDEST TEMPS             
SO FAR HAVE BEEN NEAR CAVALIER /DOWN TO -12 F/ AND KFSE. THE                    
LATTER IS NOT QUITE AS PORTRAYED IN THE FCST...AND SINCE NW MN                  
WILL RADIATE LONGEST /PER SATELLITE IMAGERY AND 00Z RUC/NAM                     
700-300MB RH PROGS/ IT SEEMS PRUDENT TO LOWER MINS JUST A BIT MORE              
IN A FEW SPOTS. AGAIN THOUGH...TEMPS WILL STOP THEIR FREE-FALL AND              
THEN RISE AS CLOUDS INCREASE AND WAA TAKES OVER OFF THE SFC. WE                 
WILL MODEL THE HOURLY TEMP GRIDS ON A MIX OF THE 21/00Z RUC AND                 
00Z NAM.                                                                        
THE 00Z NAM IS BASICALLY ON TRACK WITH THE SWATH OF -SN EXPECTED                
TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA LATE TONIGHT/SUNDAY. MODERATE FRONTOGENSIS              
IN THE 850-700MB LAYER AND MODERATE 500-300MB Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE              
/ALBEIT WEAKER ON THE 00Z RUN/ ARE BOTH NOTED. PERSISTENCE IN                   
GUIDANCE AND UPSTREAM OBS BOTH SUPPORT THE IDEA OF LIKELY POPS                  
WITH THIS BAND. BUT...THERE IS A SIGNAL IN THE 21Z SREF AND NOW                 
THE 00Z NAM FOR A SLIGHTER FASTER PROGRESSION...WHICH IS NOT                    
UNREASONABLE SINCE -SN IS ALREADY ON THE DOORSTEP OF KBIS. WE WILL              
INCREASE POPS ACCORDINGLY IN OUR WESTERN FA /INCLUDING KDVL/ IN                 
THE 09-12Z TIME FRAME.                                                          
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
VFR WILL APPLY MUCH OF THE NIGHT...BEFORE AN ALBERTA CLIPPER                    
SPREADS A BAND OF -SN INTO THE KDVL AREA BY 12Z...THE RED RIVER                 
VALLEY 15-18Z...AND THE KBJI AREA THEREAFTER. WE USED UPSTREAM                  
TRENDS AND THE RAPID UPDATE CYCLE MODEL /AS WELL AS THE SIMILARITY              
TO FRIDAY/S EVENT/ AS A GUIDE IN BRINGING A PERIOD OF IFR VIS                   
THROUGH MOST OF THE TAF SITES WITH THIS SYSTEM. MVFR /OR POSSIBLY               
LOWER/ CIGS WILL ALSO BE PRESENT WITH THIS SYSTEM ON SUNDAY.                    
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 633 PM CST SAT DEC 6 2008/                          
DISCUSSION...                                                                   
THE SFC RIDGE AXIS AT 00Z IS SOMEWHERE ALONG A CYWG-KJMS-KABR                   
LINE. WITH 1-2 INCHES OF FRESH SNOW ON THE GROUND IN MOST PLACES                
THIS IS AN IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING SCENARIO...AT LEAST FOR THE                
NEXT 3-6 HRS BEFORE MID/HIGH LVL CLOUDS AHEAD OF THE NEXT CLIPPER               
ADD EVEN MORE ISSUES INTO THE TEMP FCST. SFC TEMPS AT 00Z ARE                   
ALREADY BLO 0 F IN MANY LOCALES...SO THE QUESTION BECOMES HOW LOW               
THEY WILL FALL. TOUGH QUESTION AS ALWAYS...BUT USING THE PRESENT                
SFC DEWPOINTS UNDER THE RIDGE /-5 TO -12 F/ AND THE 21Z RUC SFC                 
TEMP FIELDS AS A PROXY GIVES AS REASONABLE OF A SOLUTION AS ANY.                
THE 21Z RUC IS THE ONLY SHORT TERM GUIDANCE EVEN CLOSE TO REALITY               
AT PRESENT. WE ALSO USED THIS MODEL AS A GUIDE IN BRINGING TEMPS                
BACK UP ALONG/WEST OF THE VALLEY 06-12Z WITH WAA RAMPING UP OFF                 
THE DECK AND CLOUDS ON THE INCREASE.                                            
WE WILL MAKE A QUICK UPDATE TO THE FCST TO ADJUST THE HOURLY AND                
MINIMUM TEMPS...BUT LEAVE THE REMAINDER OF THE DATABASE UNCHANGED               
ATTM.                                                                           
&&                                                                              
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
ND...NONE.                                                                      
MN...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SCHULTZ/RIDDLE                                                                  
</pre> nd                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND                                         
633 PM CST SAT DEC 6 2008                                                       
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
THE SFC RIDGE AXIS AT 00Z IS SOMEWHERE ALONG A CYWG-KJMS-KABR                   
LINE. WITH 1-2 INCHES OF FRESH SNOW ON THE GROUND IN MOST PLACES                
THIS IS AN IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING SCENARIO...AT LEAST FOR THE                
NEXT 3-6 HRS BEFORE MID/HIGH LVL CLOUDS AHEAD OF THE NEXT CLIPPER               
ADD EVEN MORE ISSUES INTO THE TEMP FCST. SFC TEMPS AT 00Z ARE                   
ALREADY BLO 0 F IN MANY LOCALES...SO THE QUESTION BECOMES HOW LOW               
THEY WILL FALL. TOUGH QUESTION AS ALWAYS...BUT USING THE PRESENT                
SFC DEWPOINTS UNDER THE RIDGE /-5 TO -12 F/ AND THE 21Z RUC SFC                 
TEMP FIELDS AS A PROXY GIVES AS REASONABLE OF A SOLUTION AS ANY.                
THE 21Z RUC IS THE ONLY SHORT TERM GUIDANCE EVEN CLOSE TO REALITY               
AT PRESENT. WE ALSO USED THIS MODEL AS A GUIDE IN BRINGING TEMPS                
BACK UP ALONG/WEST OF THE VALLEY 06-12Z WITH WAA RAMPING UP OFF                 
THE DECK AND CLOUDS ON THE INCREASE.                                            
WE WILL MAKE A QUICK UPDATE TO THE FCST TO ADJUST THE HOURLY AND                
MINIMUM TEMPS...BUT LEAVE THE REMAINDER OF THE DATABASE UNCHANGED               
ATTM.                                                                           
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
VFR WILL APPLY MUCH OF THE NIGHT...BEFORE AN ALBERTA CLIPPER                    
SPREADS A BAND OF -SN INTO THE KDVL AREA BY 12Z...THE RED RIVER                 
VALLEY 15-18Z...AND THE KBJI AREA THEREAFTER. WE USED UPSTREAM                  
TRENDS AND THE RAPID UPDATE CYCLE MODEL /AS WELL AS THE SIMILARITY              
TO FRIDAY/S EVENT/ AS A GUIDE IN BRINGING A PERIOD OF IFR VIS                   
THROUGH MOST OF THE TAF SITES WITH THIS SYSTEM. MVFR /OR POSSIBLY               
LOWER/ CIGS WILL ALSO BE PRESENT WITH THIS SYSTEM ON SUNDAY.                    
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 312 PM CST SAT DEC 6 2008/                          
SHORT TERM...                                                                   
MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE IS PCPN. WHEN LOOKING AT THE LATEST SURFACE             
ANALYSIS...AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDS THROUGH E ND INTO E SD.             
WHEN COMPARING THE MODELS...THE MODELS START OUT IN PRETTY GOOD                 
AGREEMENT AND THEN DIVERGE ON SYSTEM TIMING...WITH NAM THE COMPROMISE           
SOLUTION. THUS...ENDED UP USING THE NAM FOR PCPN TIMING AS WELL AS              
TEMPS FOR EARLY ON AND THEN TRANSITIONED TO GFS FOR LATER PERIODS.              
THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE SHIFTS OFF TO THE SE TONIGHT AND ANOTHER                
ALBERTA CLIPPER APPROACHES. WITH GOOD WAA AND A S-SE RETURN FLOW                
AHEAD OF WARM FRONT OVERNIGHT...ANTICIPATE SNOW TO DEVELOP TOWARDS              
MORNING AND SPREAD THROUGH E ND AND NW AND WC MN ON SUN...WITH                  
ONE TO TWO INCHES OF NEW SNOW ANTICIPATED.                                      
ANOTHER HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE N PLAINS FROM CANADA FOR            
MON INTO TUE...SO KEPT THE FORECAST BASICALLY DRY...BUT WILL NEED TO            
MONITOR CONDITIONS IN NW MN AS SOME MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE THE                
POTENTIAL FOR -ZL OR FLURRIES. THE NEXT CLIPPER APPROACHES ON TUE               
AFTERNOON...WITH ANOTHER POTENTIAL FOR -SN.                                     
LONG TERM...                                                                    
MODELS ARE IN RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE WED-SAT TIME PERIOD              
WITH BROAD NW FLOW MAINTAINING A BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURE REGIME.               
THE MAIN ISSUES REVOLVE AROUND THE TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF                      
SYSTEMS...AND RESULTANT IMPACT ON THE SENSIBLE WEATHER. A                       
REINFORCING SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR WILL PUSH ACROSS THE CWFA EARLY IN               
THE EXTENDED...SO HAVE MAINTAINED THE LOW POP WITH BOUNDARY AND                 
UPPER SUPPORT. SHORT BREAK AFTER FROPA WED AS HIGH BUILD IN...                  
GIVING COLD AIRMASS FLURRIES AND DECREASING THE CLOUD COVER. WITH               
FAST FLOW MOVING NEXT WAVE IN WED NIGHT INTO THU...THIS IS WHEN                 
GFS/DGEX/ECMWF DIVERGE IN DETAILS. DGEX AND GFS HAVE NEXT WAVE                  
MOVING ACROSS THE REGION THU. WELL DEFINED INVERTED TROUGH                      
PROVIDES FOCUS FOR -SN MOVING W TO E ACROSS THE AREA. HIGH BUILDS               
IN THU NIGHT AND FRI. NEXT WAVE FRI-SAT TIME PERIOD MOVING FAR                  
ENOUGH WEST OF CWFA TO REDUCE RISK OF -SN. DGEX MUCH FARTHER E AND              
DISCOUNTED. HAVE MODELED LOW POPS ACROSS THE S AS SYSTEM PUSHES                 
LIMITED MOISTURE OVER COLD DOME. SAT DRY UNDER COLD HIGH.                       
&&                                                                              
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
ND...NONE.                                                                      
MN...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SCHULTZ/NG/EWENS                                                                
</pre> nd                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR SOUTHEAST SD/SOUTHWEST MN/NORTHWEST IA             
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD                                         
935 PM CST SAT DEC 6 2008                                                       
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
PRECIP FORECAST FOR TONIGHT SEEMS TO BE IN PRETTY GOOD SHAPE...WITH             
BAND OF SNOW DEVELOPING WARM ADVECTION/STRONG ISENTROPIC LIFT ZONE              
OVER WESTERN DAKOTAS AT THIS TIME. STRONGEST ISENTROPIC LIFT MOVES              
ACROSS THE CWA 06Z-18Z...WITH ONLY CONCERN FOR TIMING BEING HOW LONG            
IT WILL TAKE TO FULLY SATURATE BELOW 750-700MB IN THE WAKE OF THE               
DEPARTING SURFACE RIDGE. TIMING FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST LOOKS GOOD               
BASED ON LATEST RUNS OF RUC/NAM...AND HAVE MADE VERY FEW CHANGES TO             
PRECIP FORECAST.                                                                
TEMPERATURES A LITTLE MORE TRICKY. AS EXPECTED...READINGS OVER                  
CENTRAL AND EASTERN COUNTIES HAVE TANKED WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND            
LIGHT WINDS WITHIN THE SURFACE RIDGE NOW MOVING ACROSS THE AREA.                
HAVE MADE ADJUSTMENTS TO HOURLY TEMPS TO COOL EASTERN AREAS...                  
ESPECIALLY LOWER DRAINAGE LOCATIONS...DOWN 5-8 DEGREES FROM EARLIER             
FORECAST. STILL EXPECTING THESE AREAS TO RECOVER SOME THROUGH THE               
EARLY MORNING AS CLOUDS INCREASE. UPDATED GRIDS/PFM HAVE BEEN SENT              
AND WILL GET NEW ZFP OUT SHORTLY.                                               
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
VFR BCMG MVFR THEN IFR CIGS AND VSBYS IN BAND OF SNOW MOVG GRADUALLY            
EWD OVER CWA FM 07Z TO 17Z. PATCHY -FZRA OR -FZDZ PSBL NR AND WEST              
OF JAMES AND MISSOURI VALLEYS SUN MRNG.                                         
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION...                                                             
COLD DRY SFC RIDGE MOVG EWD OVR CWA TNGT WITH RESULTANT DROP IN EVE             
TEMPS...FLWD BY INCRG SELY FLOW AND RISING TEMPS FM WEST TO EAST AFT            
MIDN. WENT HIGH END LIKELY POPS WITH EXPCD BAND OF SNOW DVLPG JAMES             
VALLEY WEST AFT MIDN...MOVG EWD OVER CWA SUN MRNG. STG CONVERGENCE              
AND LIFT AHEAD OF WARM FRONT IN THE LOW TO MID LVLS AND WITH EXPCD              
INFLUX OF PACIFIC MOISTURE FROM THE WEST...SHOULD BE SOME 1 TO 2                
INCH SNOW AMOUNTS. A FEW 3 INCHERS PSBL IN SWRN MN SUN MRNG...IF                
BAND WAS NOT PROGRESSING EAST FAIRLY FAST. EVE SHIFT CAN THINK                  
ABOUT UPPING THE POPS TO DEFINITE AFTER PINNING DOWN TIMING AND                 
PLACEMENT OF BEST SNOW...BUT LOOKS LIKE I90 AND NORTH HAS BEST                  
POTENTIAL. ANOTHER PROBLEM IS POTENTIAL FOR SOME -FZRA OR -FZDZ AS              
WARMER AIR ALOFT MOVES INTO MISSOURI VALLEY LATE TNGT AND SUN                   
MRNG...BUT MAIN PRECIP SHOULD BE PULLING EAST WITH THE SNOW BAND.               
THE LGT SNOW AND ANY -FZDZ WILL CONT TO DCRS AND END THRU SUN AFTN.             
LOW AND SOME MID LVL MOISTR SHUD KEEP SKIES MOCLDY MON NGT INTO ERY             
TUE BTWN SYSTEMS. MODELS AND GUIDNCE ARE COMING TOGETEHR                        
SURPRISINGLY WELL ON THE MON INTO TUE SYS WITH THE MAIN FOCUS MON               
NGT. AFTER YSTRDAYS WIDE SPLIT BTWN MODEL SOLUTIONS...THE                       
ECMWF...WHICH YSTDY HAD SNOW BY BRINGING THE LOW ENTERING NRN BAJA              
UP TOO FAR N...IS NOW PRETTY CLOSE TO OTHER MODELS IN HAVING A ZONE             
OF DECENT DYNAMIC AND THERMAL SUPPORT AT LOW AND MID LVLS FOR A                 
DECENT SNOW EVEN OVER FCST AREA...ESPLY SRN HALF...DESPITE MAIN                 
UPEPR WAVE MOVG S OF AREA. SECONDARY WAVE BACKS FLOW ENUF TO TAKE               
ADVANTAGE OF THE TREMENDOUS THERMAL SUPPORT AND THIS SYS SHUD BE A              
VERY EFFICIENT PCPN PRODUCER FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. FEEL NAM IS                 
OVERDONE ON THE WARMING JUST AS GFS LIKELY A LTL TOO COOL. THIS ALL             
SHUD BE A MOOT POINT THO CONSIDERING LIKELY DYNAMIC NATUR OF ANY                
SIGNIFICANT PCPN WHICH WILL QUICKLY TAKE CARE OF ANY WARM AIR...AND             
HAVE ELECTED TO KEEP MENTN ALL SNOW EVEN AT THE START. DOESNT LOOK              
LIKE A WINTER STORM AT THIS POINT BUT WILL GO FOR SOME 4 INCH PLUS              
FCSTS AT THIS TIME FOR MON THRU TUE OVER THE SRN CWA. HPC GUIDNCE               
INCLUDING WWD GRAPHICS LOOK QUITE REASNBL XCP THE HIGHEST SNOWFALL              
POTENTIAL SEEMS TO EXITS JUST AS MUCH OVER THE SWRN CRNR OF FCST                
AREA AS MUCH AS EWD INTO NWRN IA...SO WILL GO FOR THAT SCENARIO WITH            
THE SWRN CRNR OF COURSE GETTING THE SNOW ERYR. THOSE TEMPS AFTER                
HOLDING RELTVLY MILD MON NGT WILL NOT SHOW TOO MUCH RISE TUE.                   
WED THRU SAT EXTENDED PD KEEPS MOST OF TIS QSTNS FROM YSTDY XCP IN              
VRBL NWRLY FLOW ALOFT IT LOOKS LIKE ANY SNOW EVENTS SUCH AS WE HAVE             
FOR WED AND FRI WILL BE PRETTY MINOR. A LTL WARMING BY FRI THEN                 
COOLING AGN FOR SAT AS PER GUIDNCE. THIS IS A WAITING PD AWAITING               
DIGGING OF MAJOR WCOAST TROF AS CONSISTENTLY SHOWN BY MODELS...WITH             
ANY BIG PCPN EVENTS AND TEMP CHANGES WAITING TILL AFTER THIS FCST               
PD. ERYR THOUGHTS OF AN IMPRTANT SYS FOR NEXT WEEKEND HAVE SLOWED               
SLGHTLY AS THE ECMWF WHICH WAS TRYING TO DO THIS ON 00Z RUN HAS                 
SLOWED THE TROF PROGRESSION AND DVLPMNT WITH LATEST RUN AND HINTING             
AT NOTHING EXCITING...AT LEAST THRU NEXT SAT.                                   
&&                                                                              
.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
SD...NONE.                                                                      
MN...NONE.                                                                      
IA...NONE.                                                                      
NE...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
RYRHOLM/WILLIAMS                                                                
</pre> sd                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR SOUTHEAST SD/SOUTHWEST MN/NORTHWEST IA             
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD                                         
855 PM CST FRI DEC 5 2008                                                       
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
MIXING BEHIND SURFACE WARM FRONT/SWITCH TO MORE WESTERLY WINDS HAS              
ALLOWED TEMPERATURES OVER MUCH OF THE CWA TO CONTINUE RISING THIS               
EVENING...WITH MUCH OF THE WESTERN AND SOUTHERN CWA ABOVE FREEZING              
AS OF 02Z. COLDER AIR STILL POISED TO OUR NORTH...AND IS EXPECTED TO            
MAKE THE SOUTHWARD PUSH LATER TONIGHT SURFACE LOW IN NORTHERN MN                
MOVES INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES...AND COLD FRONT IN FAR SOUTHEAST            
ND MOVES SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA. HAVE MADE QUITE A FEW ADJUSTMENTS              
TO HOURLY TEMPS TO SHOW NEARLY STEADY OR EVEN SLIGHTLY RISING TEMPS             
YET THROUGH THE BALANCE OF THE EVENING...WITH SHARPER DECLINE LATER             
IN THE NIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT PUSHES SOUTH. BUMPED UP OVERNIGHT                
LOWS 2-4 DEGREES OVERALL...WITH LOWS EXPECTED NEAR THE END OF THE               
VERIFICATION PERIOD TOWARD 14Z...THOUGH READINGS WILL LIKELY STILL              
FALL A LITTLE MORE THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE MORNING HOURS BEFORE               
A SUBTLE REBOUND IN THE AFTERNOON.                                              
AS FOR PRECIP...BATCH OF LIGHT SNOW WHICH PASSED THROUGH MAINLY THE             
NORTHEAST CWA WITH THE UPPER WAVE IS PUSHING OUT OF THE AREA...WITH             
BOTH THE 00Z NAM AND RUC MAINTAINING PUSH OF DRIER MID LEVEL AIR                
ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST CWA THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE               
NIGHT. HAVE CUT BACK POPS AS A RESULT...HANGING ONTO A SLIGHT CHANCE            
IN THE FAR SOUTHWEST AFTER 06Z WHERE DEEPER MOISTURE PERSISTS                   
SOUTHWEST OF THE COLD FRONT. UPDATED GRIDS/PFM/ZFP HAVE BEEN SENT.              
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
LIGHT SNOW IS LOOKING LESS LIKELY TONIGHT ACROSS THE AREA AS RADAR              
IMAGES SHOWING DRIER AIR WORKING INTO THE REGION. NORTHWESTERLY                 
WINDS WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT SLIDES THROUGH            
THE NORTHERN PLAINS. CEILINGS WILL VARY FROM VFR TO MVFR THROUGH THE            
LATE EVENING...THEN TREND TOWARD A MORE WIDESPREAD MVFR DECK AFTER              
06Z AS MOISTURE POISED TO THE NORTH COMES SOUTHWARD. SOME                       
DISCREPANCY AMONG MODEL GUIDANCE WITH RESPECT TO HOW QUICKLY MVFR               
CIGS BREAK UP ON SATURDAY MORNING...WITH SOME SUGGESTING THE LOW                
LEVEL MOISTURE HOLDING THROUGH 18Z.  WITH THE UNCERTAINTY...PUT                 
SCATTERED 2500 FT AT TAF SITES AFTER 15Z ON SATURDAY.                           
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION...                                                             
TEMPERATURES HAVE CLIMBED NICELY THIS AFTERNOON ON A MODERATELY                 
STRONG SOUTHWEST WIND...WITH MOST LOCATIONS WELL INTO THE MID AND               
UPPER 20S...EVEN SOME LOW TO MID 30S FROM NORTHWEST IOWA WEST                   
THROUGH THE MISSOURI VALLEY. THIS IS IN RESPONSE TO THE WAVE DIVING             
SOUTH INTO THE REGION TONIGHT. INITIALLY...THIS ENERGY WILL NEED TO             
OVERCOME A VERY DRY LAYER OF AIR FROM ABOUT 925-800MB. LOOKS LIKE WE            
WILL OVERCOME THIS FOR A BRIEF PERIOD...WITH THE BEST CHANCES FOR               
SNOW AROUND HON FROM ABOUT 22Z THROUGH 1Z...FSD FROM ABOUT 0Z-3Z AND            
SUX...WHICH SHOULD BE ON THE SOUTHERN EDGE...FROM ABOUT 2Z-5Z. WENT             
WITH SOME NON-DIURNAL FALLS FOR TEMPERATURES TONIGHT AS WINDS AND               
CLOUD COVER WILL LIKELY KEEP TEMPERATURES UP THROUGH THE EVENING AND            
EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS...THEN MUCH COLDER AIR WILL START TO WORK INTO            
NORTHERN PARTS OF THE CWA BY ABOUT 10Z...WITH FALLING TEMPERATURES              
FOR MOST LOCATIONS THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING. LOWS THROUGH EARLY                 
TOMORROW MORNING WILL LIKELY RANGE FROM NEAR 10 NORTH TO THE UPPER              
TEENS SOUTH.                                                                    
CLEARING MAY BE PRETTY STG ERN PART OF FCST AREA SAT DESPITE NAM                
TYPICALLY WANTING TO LINGER LO LV MOISTR OVER AREA. AS HIGH                     
APPROACHES AND RIDGES INTO AREA SUBSDNCE SHOULD TAKE OVER. SOME                 
CLOUDS SHOULD LINGER ERN PART OF FCST AREA ESPLY IN THE SW.                     
MEANWHILE...TEMPERATURES WHICH WILL STILL BE FALLING IN ERY MRNG                
WILL NOT DO TOO MUCH RECOVERING AND HIGHS SOME AREAS MAY ACTUALLY BE            
IN ERY MRNG PREDAWN TIME WITH DAYTIME WARMING ONLY ALMOST                       
COMPENSATING FOR CONTD MORNING FALL.                                            
WITH WINDS DROPPING OFF QUICKLY TEMPS WILL DROP WELL ERN FCST AREA              
SUN EVE AND EVEN A LTL THERE AFTER MIDNIGHT...AS TEMPS IN THE W                 
LVL OFF SAT EVE AND BEGIN TO WARM SLWLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. STG LO LVL              
WARM ADVECTN PATTRN EXPECTED TO RESULT IN A BROAD BAND OF LGT SNOW              
WHICH SHOULD MOVE EWD/NEWD ACRS AREA LATE SAT NGT AND SUN MRNG. SOME            
OF THIS WILL STILL BE LEFT IN THE NORTHEAST FOR SUN AFTN BUT SHUD BE            
MOSTLY OUT BY LATE IN THE DAY. IN FACT...HAVE KEPT THE PCPN AS SNOW             
AS THINKING IS THAT PCPN WILL BE MOVING OUT BEFORE IT GETS WARM ENUF            
FOR FREEZING RAIN. NOT TOO EXCITED ABOUT ANY AMOUNTS AT THIS TIME               
WITH THERMAL SUPPORT AND LIFT NOT EXPECTED TO BE VERY DEEP...THAT IS            
WONT GO TOO FAR UP INTO MID LEVELS. SFC TEMPS WILL WARM INTO THE 20S            
MOST OF FCST AREA SUN AND IN THE LOW TO MID 30S SW.                             
SUN NGT THRU TUE PERIOD PRESENTS INCRG PROBLEMS WITH DIFFERENCES IN             
MODEL SOLUTIONS. FOR NOW FAVOR GFS SOLUTION OF A GENERALLY DRY PD.              
ECMWF HINTS AT SIGNFCNT SNOW EVENT PSBL FOR SERN FCST AREA BY                   
SOMEHOW BRINGING THE UPPER LOW COMING ACRS CA/BAJA BORDER AREA SUN              
NEWD FAR ENUF TO AFFECT FCST AREA. FOR NOW FAVOR GFS/NAM/CANADIAN               
SOLUTION OF THE DRY FCST BUT WILL HAVE IN A SLGT CHC FOR MON IN                 
DEFERENCE TO THE ECMWF. NOGAPS MODEL IN A LTL DIFFERENT WAY TRIES TO            
BRING AN AREA OF LGT SNOW UP TO FCST AREA AS WELL. MON SHUD BE                  
RELTVLY MILD ON TEMPS THEN COOLING FOR TUE.                                     
WED THRU FRI PERIOD PRESENTS EVEN MORE WIDELY DIFFERENT MODEL                   
SOLUTIONS AND WILL CONT TO LEAN TO THE COLDER GFS WHICH IS IN LINE              
WITH WHAT WE HAVE BEEN GOING FOR ON TEMPS. AS FOR PCPN...MENTION OF             
LGT SNOW WITH LOW POPS AS PER HPC GUIDNCE SEEMS IN ORDER BOTH WITH              
MIDWEEK CDFNT AND IN COLD AIR BEHIND IT...AT LEAST FOR NOW AND TILL             
WE GET INDICATIONS OF DECENT SFC RIDGING IN COLD AIR WHICH WE DONT              
HAVE NOW. 00Z CANADIAN HAD A MOST INTERESTING SOLUTION OF WARMING IT            
UP ALREADY ON FRI THEN HITTING THE AREA WITH A PSBLY MAJOR SNOWSTORM            
FOR THAT FOLLOWING WEEKEND. THAT SEEMS A LTL GUNG HO BUT AT LEAST               
THE MODELS ARE STARTING TO SHOW A PATTERN STARTING ABOUT THEN WHICH             
WILL BE MUCH MORE ACTIVE THAN WE HAVE HAD SO FAR THIS COLD SEASON.              
&&                                                                              
.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
SD...NONE.                                                                      
MN...NONE.                                                                      
IA...NONE.                                                                      
NE...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
 JH/JM                                                                          
</pre> sd                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD                                            
1031 AM CST FRI DEC 5 2008                                                      
.UPDATE...                                                                      
MSAS SHOWS SFC TROF IS PROGRESSING SOUTHWARD AS FORECASTED...WITH               
NW WINDS PICKING UP BEHIND SYSTEM. RUC IS SHOWING FAIRLY                        
IMPRESSIVE 85H THETA-E FORCING ASSOC WITH SFC TROF...COUPLED WITH               
INCREASE OMEGA IN THE 85H-7H AND 7H-5H LAYERS. LIGHT SNOW LOOKS TO              
BE A FAIRLY GOOD BET...AND HAVE UPPED POPS FOR MUCH OF THE NORTH                
AND EAST FOR THIS AFTERNOON. DOESN`T LOOK TO BE MUCH FOR ACCUMS AS              
DRY AS THE SYSTEM IS...BUT SHOULD BE EFFECIENT AT MAKING SNOW.                  
CURRENT FCSTD HIGHS SEEM REASONABLE GIVEN STRENGTH OF LOW LEVEL                 
WAA QUICKLY MOVING IN. UPDATED WORDED ZONES HAVE BEEN SENT.                     
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION...                                                             
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY                                              
PRECIPITATION CHANCES LATER THIS AFTERNOON IS THE MAIN FORECAST                 
CHALLENGE IN THE SHORT TERM.                                                    
CURRENTLY THERE IS A BAND OF HIGH CLOUDS MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL                  
ND...AND INTO WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA. THESE HIGHS CLOUDS ARE ERODING              
THE LOW CLOUDS WITH KABR REPORTING CLEAR SKIES AS OF 8Z. KATY                   
HOWEVER IS STILL REPORTING OVERCAST SKIES. THE AREA OF LOW                      
PRESSURE THAT WILL BRING SNOW BACK INTO THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON IS               
CURRENTLY SITUATED ALONG THE MONTANA...CANADIAN BORDER. MODELS                  
AGREE WELL WITH BRINGING THIS LOW PRESSURE ACROSS NORTHERN NORTH                
DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON...AND THEN OVER LAKE SUPERIOR TONIGHT. NOW                
COMES THE FORECAST CHALLENGE AS TO WHEN WILL IT SNOW TODAY?                     
AS THE LOW TRACKS OVER NORTHERN NORTH DAKOTA TODAY...WINDS AT 850               
MBS SHIFT TO THE WEST WITH MID LEVEL RH VALUES FALLING BELOW 30                 
PERCENT. MODEL SOUNDINGS OVER KMBG IS MOIST ENOUGH TO SEE SNOW                  
BEGINNING AROUND 18Z. BUFKIT SHOWS THE BEST TIMING FOR SNOW TO BEGIN            
AROUND 21Z IN KABR AND KPIR. KATY IS MOIST ENOUGH FOR SNOW CLOSER               
TO 0Z. THIS WILL LIKELY BE ONE OF THOSE EVENTS WHERE WE HIGH POPS               
WITH LOW QPF AS THERE IS NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF MID LEVEL FORCING.              
THERE IS SOME JET SUPPORT AT 300 MBS TONIGHT IN THE FORM OF 130 KT              
JET STREAK. SNOWFALL AMOUNTS FROM THIS SYSTEM WILL GENERALLY RANGE              
FROM AN INCH OR LESS...PER THE CARIBOU SNOWFALL AMOUNT TOOL.                    
HIGH PRESSURE NOSES INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON SATURDAY WITH                   
DRIER AIR PUSHING IN AT THE MID LEVELS. UNFORTUNATELY THERE LOOKS               
TO BE MOISTURE TRAPPED IN THE LOWER LEVEL LEAVING ME TO BELIEVE WE              
WILL SEE AT LEAST PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS THE CWA.                           
WARM AIR IN THE MID LEVELS BEGIN TO PUSH INTO WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA              
SATURDAY NIGHT WITH AN OVERRUNNING PRECIPITATION EVENT TAKING                   
PLACE. MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT IN SHOWING THIS EVENT TAKING                 
PLACE ON SATURDAY NIGHT AND INTO SUNDAY MORNING...FOR THE PAST                  
FIVE MODEL RUNS. THE WARM AIR AT THE MID LEVELS BEGINS TO MIX DOWN              
TO THE SURFACE ON SUNDAY WITH TEMPS REACHING THE MID TO UPPER 30S               
IN WEST CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA.                                                   
.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY                                      
THE LONG RANGE MODELS...PARTICULARLY THE GFS AND ECMWF REMAIN                   
QUITE SIMILAR IN THEIR DEPICTIONS OF THE LONG WAVE PATTERN THROUGH              
180 HOURS. THAT PATTERN BASICALLY COMPRISED OF A MID LEVEL WEST                 
COAST RIDGE AND DOWNSTREAM CENTRAL/EASTERN CONUS TROF. THIS OF                  
COURSE PLACES THE ABR CWA IN A PESKY NORTHWEST FLOW SITUATION WITH              
A MEAN BAROCLINIC ZONE HANGING AROUND THE AREA. SO...NEEDLESS TO                
SAY TIMING OF PCPN AND COLD AIR INTRUSIONS ARE SOMEWHAT                         
CHALLENGING. KEPT PCPN CHANCES FOR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY WITH                
BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF INDICATING SOME POTENTIAL FOR SNOW. THEN                 
WENT DRY UNTIL LATER IN THE WEEK. AT THAT TIME ANOTHER STRONGISH                
LOOKING CLIPPER IS EXPECTED TO TRACK ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS.                
AS FOR TEMPERATURES...NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL SHOULD SUFFICE              
FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE EXTENDED. BUT BY THURSDAY A MORE ROBUST               
CHUNK OF ARCTIC AIR SHOULD SLIDE DOWN INTO THE REGION...ESPECIALLY              
THE EASTERN CWA. LOOKING A BIT FURTHER OUT...BOTH THE ECMWF/GFS                 
SHOW A PRETTY BIG CHANGE IN THE PATTERN...WITH A WEALTH OF COLD                 
AIR BEGINNING TO WELL UP OVER WESTERN CANADA AS THE MID LEVEL                   
PATTERN GOES THROUGH A RETROGRESSIVE PHASE. COULD THE MIDDLE OF                 
THE MONTH BE COLD AND STORMY?                                                   
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
A FEW LINGERING MVFR CIGS OVER EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA SHOULD                      
GRADUALLY BREAK UP THIS MORNING WITH THE REST OF THE MORNING AND                
EARLY AFTERNOON FEATURING CLOUDS MOSTLY AOA 10K FEET. HOWEVER...BY              
LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO ROLE                 
SOUTH OVER THE REGION...AND SNOW SHOWERS COULD OCCASIONALLY CAUSE               
IFR/MVFR VSBYS AT ALL TERMINAL SITES.                                           
&&                                                                              
.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
SD...NONE.                                                                      
MN...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
UPDATE...HINTZ                                                                  
SHORT TERM...SD                                                                 
LONG TERM...TDK                                                                 
AVIATION...TDK                                                                  
WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN                                                            
</pre> sd                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX                                         
221 PM CST FRI DEC 5 2008                                                       
.DISCUSSION...THE LATEST KBRO RADAR REFLECTIVITY SHOWS THE PATCHY               
LIGHT DRIZZLE CONTINUING OVER THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE BRO CWA               
AND OFFSHORE OVER THE GULF WATERS. THIS PESKY ACTIVITY WILL                     
PERSIST ALONG THE COASTAL AREAS INTO THIS EVENING AS THE CURRENT                
RUC GUIDANCE SHOWS WEAK SURFACE TROFFING CONTINUING INTO THE EARLY              
EVENING EVENTUALLY DISSIPATING LATE TONIGHT DIMINISHING THE LOW                 
LEVEL CONVERGENCE. OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...THE BROAD 500 MB                
TROFFING OVER THE EASTERN U.S. WILL WEAKEN ALLOWING A MORE ZONAL                
PATTERN TO RE-ESTABLISH OVER THE LOWER 48 STATES. THIS WILL ALLOW               
THE WAA TO STRENGTHEN AND THE DAYTIME HEATING TO INCREASE OVER THE              
REGION RESULTING IN WARMING TEMPS THROUGH MON. THE MAV AND MET                  
FORECAST TEMPS AND POPS THROUGH MON MORNING ARE IN PRETTY GOOD                  
AGREEMENT AND WILL NOT DEVIATE FROM THIS TREND TOO MUCH IN THE                  
SHORT TERM. EARLY NEXT WEEK...A 500 MB CLOSED LOW CURRENTLY OVER                
THE SOUTHERN CA COASTLINE WILL OPEN UP AND PHASE WITH A SHORT WAVE              
DIGGING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THIS WILL RESULT                
IN INCREASED 500 MB TROFFING OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL PLAINS STATES               
NEXT MON AND TUES AND THIS WILL PUSH THROUGH ANOTHER STRONG COLD                
FRONT THROUGH THE REGION NEXT TUES. SO FAR...BOTH THE ECMWF AND                 
THE GFS SHOW DECENT AGREEMENT IN THE HANDLING OF THIS FEATURE WITH              
THE GFS SHOWING A LITTLE FASTER EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THE                     
500 MB LOW/TROUGH VERSUS THE ECMWF. RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY WITH                 
THE GFS IS OK FOR TEMPS AND WORSE FOR POPS WITH THE LATEST GFS MEX              
TRYING TO HOLD ONTO THE SLGT CHC/CHC POPS INTO WED. DUE TO THE                  
DECENT AGREEMENT SHOWN IN THE LONGER RANGE PERIOD...WILL STICK                  
FAIRLY CLOSE TO THE CURRENT GFS MEX NUMBERS WITH THE EXCEPTION OF               
THE POPS FOR MON. THE INCREASE SHOWN IN THE POPS ON WED IN THE                  
LATEST MEX RUN MAY LOWER IN THE NEXT RUN...SO MY CONFIDENCE IN                  
POPS FOR NEXT WED IS PRETTY LOW.                                                
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...NORTHERLY WINDS AT THE SURFACE...AND SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS            
IN THE MIDDLE LAYERS OF THE ATMOSPHERE...WILL PRODUCE VFR/MVFR SKIES            
AND LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS THROUGH TONIGHT. SKIES WILL THEN RAPIDLY            
CLEAR AROUND SUNRISE SATURDAY MORNING AS THE MID-LEVEL FLOW SHIFTS              
TO THE NORTHWEST.                                                               
&&                                                                              
.MARINE...BUOY 42020 REPORTED NORTHEAST WINDS AROUND 19 KNOTS                   
GUSTING TO AROUND 23 KNOTS WITH SEAS SLIGHTLY UNDER 8 FEET WITH A 7             
SECOND PERIOD AT 11 CST/17 UTC. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN               
EFFECT FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO WATERS EAST OF PADRE ISLAND UNTIL 6 PM            
CST THIS AFTERNOON DUE TO STRONG WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS OFFSHORE. HIGH            
PRESSURE BUILDING SOUTH INTO TEXAS WILL PRODUCE MODERATE WINDS AND              
SEAS ALONG THE LOWER TEXAS COAST TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. MARINE               
CONDITIONS WILL BRIEFLY IMPROVE SATURDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE                 
MOVES OVER DEEP SOUTH TEXAS AND THEN FARTHER EAST...WITH WINDS AND              
SEAS INCREASING SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS IT INTERACTS WITH LOW PRESSURE             
OVER TEXAS. WINDS AND SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE TUESDAY AS A               
COLD FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED                 
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY DUE TO STRONG WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS AHEAD               
OF...AND BEHIND...THE COLD FRONT.                                               
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL  52  71  55  75 /  20  10   0   0                           
BROWNSVILLE          49  70  54  78 /  20  10   0   0                           
HARLINGEN            47  70  52  77 /  10  10   0   0                           
MCALLEN              48  73  53  77 /  10  10   0   0                           
RIO GRANDE CITY      48  71  53  76 /  10  10   0   0                           
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND   56  69  57  71 /  20  10   0   0                           
&&                                                                              
.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6                 
PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR GMZ150-155-170-175.                                   
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:                                   
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BROWNSVILLE                                              
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...60                                                             
MARINE/AVIATION...66                                                            
MESO/NOWCASTING...MARTINEZ                                                      
</pre> tx                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX                                      
1126 AM CST FRI DEC 5 2008                                                      
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
SEE AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.                                                  
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS ARE SWINGING AROUND TO THE SOUTH AND                      
SOUTHWEST AT THE MOMENT...AND WILL CONTINUE TO VEER AROUND                      
OVERNIGHT EVENTUALLY BECOMING NORTHWESTERLY TOMORROW AS A WEAK                  
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. NO RAIN AND FEW CLOUDS ARE                   
EXPECTED WITH THE FRONT AS ITS MAIN IMPACT WILL BE ON THE WIND                  
DIRECTION.                                                                      
HENNIG                                                                          
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 938 AM CST FRI DEC 5 2008/                          
UPDATE...                                                                       
UPDATED THE FORECAST FOR THE EXPIRATION OF THE HIGH WIND WARNING.               
DISCUSSION...                                                                   
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT HAS BEEN DIMINISHING AND IT IS SHOWING IN                 
THE GDP OBS. HAVE ALLOWED THE HIGH WIND WARNING TO EXPIRE...AND                 
HAVE UPDATED ALL RELEVANT PRODUCTS. OTHERWISE THE ONGOING FORECAST              
LOOKS GOOD FOR NOW.                                                             
HENNIG                                                                          
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 500 AM CST FRI DEC 5 2008/                           
DISCUSSION...                                                                   
EARLY MORNING SURFACE ANALYSIS CONTINUING TO DEPICT A WELL                      
DEVELOPED SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDING INTO WEST TEXAS AND SOUTHEAST NM              
FROM A PARENT HIGH LOCATED ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL OK. PRESSURE                    
GRADIENT IN ASSOCIATION WITH FEATURE HAS KEPT A STEADY                          
NORTHEASTERLY WIND THIS MORNING...ULTIMATELY CREATING HIGH WIND                 
WARNING CONDITIONS ACROSS GUADALUPE PASS. LATEST OBS FROM KGDP                  
INDICATE WINDS BLOWING JUST ABOVE WARNING CRITERIA AND BASED ON                 
WIND FORECASTS FROM BOTH THE WRF AND RUC...FAVORABLE NORTHEASTERLY              
TRAJECTORY WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE MID MORNING. BASED ON                      
THIS...HAVE DECIDED TO EXTEND THE WARNING THROUGH 15Z...AFTER                   
WHICH WINDS WILL QUICKLY DECEASE AS THE SURFACE FLOW BEGINS TO                  
VEER MORE SOUTHEASTERLY. AFOREMENTIONED RIDGE AXIS REMAINING IN                 
PLACE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY ENSURING ANOTHER DAY OF WELL BELOW                
NORMAL TEMPS. CURRENT CONDITIONS UPSTREAM SHOW LOW TO MID TEEMS                 
ACROSS NORTHEASTERN KS THIS MORNING...AN INDICATION OF JUST HOW                 
COOL THE AIRMASS IS. WITH THIS IN MIND...HAVE DECIDED TO KEEP TEMPS             
IN THE LOW TO MID 40S ACROSS MUCH OF THE PERMIAN BASIN TODAY...AS               
REINFORCED COLD AIR WILL CONTINUE TO SETTLE INTO THE AREA AS                    
SIGNALED BY COOLER H85 TEMPS ALOFT. WITH HIGHS YESTERDAY ONLY                   
CLIMBING INTO THE MID TO UPPER 40S ACROSS MUCH OF THE                           
REGION...FEEL BASING THE CURRENT FORECAST ON PERSISTENCE IS THE                 
WAY TO GO. ALOFT...A HIGHLY SHEARED POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH WILL               
PASS OVERHEAD TODAY...YIELDING NOTHING MORE THAN ENHANCED                       
CLOUDINESS ALOFT BEFORE GRADUALLY CLEARING LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND              
EVENING FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST.                                            
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT...A SURFACE PRESSURE TROUGH ORIGINATING FROM                  
THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES WILL BEGIN TO WORK ITS WAY EASTWARD...WITH                 
CONTINUATION ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH TOMORROW AFTERNOON. BEHIND               
THE FEATURE...LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL BECOME MORE NORTHWESTERLY AS THE              
AFTERNOON PROGRESSES...SUGGESTING SOME DOWNSLOPE COMPRESSIONAL                  
WARMING POTENTIAL ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA. THIS IN COMBINATION              
WITH WARMING TEMPS ALOFT WILL SUPPORT NEAR NORMAL TEMPS ACROSS                  
MUCH OF THE REGION TOMORROW...WITH LOW TO MID 60S LIKELY RETURNING.             
PERIOD OF TRANSITION EXPECTED BY SUNDAY AS A STUBBORN UPPER LOW                 
OFF THE CA COAST BEGINS TO WORK EAST INTO THE DESERT SW/NORTHERN                
MEX. NORTHWESTERLY MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL GRADUALLY BECOME MORE                    
ZONAL WITH TIME IN ADVANCE OF THIS FEATURE...WITH EMBEDDED                      
SHORTWAVES EXPECTED TO APPROACH WEST TX/SE NM BEGINNING SUN AFTERNOON.          
INCREASING WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL LEAD TO ENHANCED LEESIDE                    
TROUGHING...WITH TROUGH AXIS EXPECTED TO EXTEND SOUTHWARD ACROSS                
THE SOUTHEAST NM PLAINS AND WEST TX MOUNTAINS. STRONG WARM AIR                  
ADVECTION EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION WITH RISING H85 TEMPS THROUGH              
THE AFTERNOON. FAVORABLE MIXING ALSO ANTICIPATED AS LOW-LEVEL                   
LAPSE RATES BECOME NEARLY DRY ADIABATIC. ONLY CAVEAT WITH                       
INCREASING TEMPS SIGNIFICANTLY WITH THIS MORNING/S UPDATE IS THE                
EXPECTATIONS OF INCREASING MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS. IN ANY                    
EVENT...FORECASTED H85 TEMPS SUPPORT LOW TO MID 70S ACROSS MUCH OF              
THE REGION...HOWEVER WITH CONCERNS REGARDING CLOUDS...HAVE                      
ATTEMPTED TO PLAY IT SAFE AND ONLY RAISE TEMPS A FEW DEGREES FOR                
NOW PENDING LATER MODEL RUNS.                                                   
UNSETTLED WEATHER CONTINUING INTO THE EARLY WORK WEEK AS LEESIDE                
TROUGH/SFC LOW EXITS THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND SETTLES INTO THE                  
CENTRAL TX PANHANDLE BY 00Z TUE. ACROSS THE MID-LEVELS...AN UPPER               
TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO SWING INTO THE REGION AS WELL...WITH THE                  
ECMWF BEING THE MOST BULLISH OF MID-RANGE GUIDANCE. MODELS IN                   
RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT A WELL DEFINED DRYLINE WILL                      
SUPERSEDE THE LOW...HOWEVER FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY MOVE               
EASTWARD THROUGHOUT THE DAY AS THE LOW SINKS SOUTHWARD TRAPPING                 
THE BEST RETURN FLOW MOISTURE WELL OFF TO THE EAST OF THE CWA.                  
DESPITE THIS...MODELS DO DEVELOP PRECIP ACROSS THE REGION AS AN                 
UPPER SPEED MAX MOVES ACROSS THE REGION ALONG WITH APPRECIABLE SHORTWAVE        
ENERGY. HAVE RAISED POPS TO JUST UNDER MENTIONABLE LIMITS FOR NOW               
BASED ON COLLABORATION WITH ADJACENT OFFICES WHILE AWAITING FOR                 
RUN TO RUN MODEL MODEL CONTINUITY. STRONG COLD FRONT EXPECTED                   
ACROSS THE AREA EARLY TUESDAY MORNING WITH CONTINUED ACCELERATION               
TO THE SOUTH THROUGH THE DAY. COLD HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN                    
BEHIND THE FRONT WILL LEAD TO COOLER TEMPS HOWEVER TEMPS WILL                   
LIKELY REBOUND ON WED BEFORE ANOTHER REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR               
ARRIVES ON THU. GENERALLY USED A GFS/ECMWF BLEND FOR THE EXTENDED               
AS MINOR DIFFERENCES AT THE START OF THE PERIOD IRONED THEMSELVES               
OUT AS THE FORECAST PERIOD ADVANCED.                                            
&&                                                                              
.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
NM...NONE.                                                                      
TX...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
10                                                                              
</pre> tx                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX                                      
938 AM CST FRI DEC 5 2008                                                       
.UPDATE...                                                                      
UPDATED THE FORECAST FOR THE EXPIRATION OF THE HIGH WIND WARNING.               
&&                                                                              
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT HAS BEEN DIMINISHING AND IT IS SHOWING IN                 
THE GDP OBS. HAVE ALLOWED THE HIGH WIND WARNING TO EXPIRE...AND                 
HAVE UPDATED ALL RELEVANT PRODUCTS. OTHERWISE THE ONGOING FORECAST              
LOOKS GOOD FOR NOW.                                                             
HENNIG                                                                          
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 550 AM CST FRI DEC 5 2008/                          
DISCUSSION...                                                                   
SEE 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.                                              
AVIATION...                                                                     
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS WELL ESTABLISHED ACROSS ALL TERMINALS                  
THIS MORNING. NORTHEAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING                 
HOURS WITH HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED EAST OF THE REGION. A TRANSITION              
TO SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL TAKE PLACE THIS AFTERNOON AS A                
SURFACE TROUGH BECOMES ESTABLISHED OVER THE PLAINS OF EASTERN NEW               
MEXICO AND WEST TEXAS. MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL ALSO                      
CONTINUE THROUGH THE CURRENT TAF FORECAST PERIOD.                               
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 500 AM CST FRI DEC 5 2008/                           
DISCUSSION...                                                                   
EARLY MORNING SURFACE ANALYSIS CONTINUING TO DEPICT A WELL                      
DEVELOPED SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDING INTO WEST TEXAS AND SOUTHEAST NM              
FROM A PARENT HIGH LOCATED ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL OK. PRESSURE                    
GRADIENT IN ASSOCIATION WITH FEATURE HAS KEPT A STEADY                          
NORTHEASTERLY WIND THIS MORNING...ULTIMATELY CREATING HIGH WIND                 
WARNING CONDITIONS ACROSS GUADALUPE PASS. LATEST OBS FROM KGDP                  
INDICATE WINDS BLOWING JUST ABOVE WARNING CRITERIA AND BASED ON                 
WIND FORECASTS FROM BOTH THE WRF AND RUC...FAVORABLE NORTHEASTERLY              
TRAJECTORY WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE MID MORNING. BASED ON                      
THIS...HAVE DECIDED TO EXTEND THE WARNING THROUGH 15Z...AFTER                   
WHICH WINDS WILL QUICKLY DECEASE AS THE SURFACE FLOW BEGINS TO                  
VEER MORE SOUTHEASTERLY. AFOREMENTIONED RIDGE AXIS REMAINING IN                 
PLACE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY ENSURING ANOTHER DAY OF WELL BELOW                
NORMAL TEMPS. CURRENT CONDITIONS UPSTREAM SHOW LOW TO MID TEEMS                 
ACROSS NORTHEASTERN KS THIS MORNING...AN INDICATION OF JUST HOW                 
COOL THE AIRMASS IS. WITH THIS IN MIND...HAVE DECIDED TO KEEP TEMPS             
IN THE LOW TO MID 40S ACROSS MUCH OF THE PERMIAN BASIN TODAY...AS               
REINFORCED COLD AIR WILL CONTINUE TO SETTLE INTO THE AREA AS                    
SIGNALED BY COOLER H85 TEMPS ALOFT. WITH HIGHS YESTERDAY ONLY                   
CLIMBING INTO THE MID TO UPPER 40S ACROSS MUCH OF THE                           
REGION...FEEL BASING THE CURRENT FORECAST ON PERSISTENCE IS THE                 
WAY TO GO. ALOFT...A HIGHLY SHEARED POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH WILL               
PASS OVERHEAD TODAY...YIELDING NOTHING MORE THAN ENHANCED                       
CLOUDINESS ALOFT BEFORE GRADUALLY CLEARING LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND              
EVENING FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST.                                            
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT...A SURFACE PRESSURE TROUGH ORIGINATING FROM                  
THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES WILL BEGIN TO WORK ITS WAY EASTWARD...WITH                 
CONTINUATION ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH TOMORROW AFTERNOON. BEHIND               
THE FEATURE...LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL BECOME MORE NORTHWESTERLY AS THE              
AFTERNOON PROGRESSES...SUGGESTING SOME DOWNSLOPE COMPRESSIONAL                  
WARMING POTENTIAL ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA. THIS IN COMBINATION              
WITH WARMING TEMPS ALOFT WILL SUPPORT NEAR NORMAL TEMPS ACROSS                  
MUCH OF THE REGION TOMORROW...WITH LOW TO MID 60S LIKELY RETURNING.             
PERIOD OF TRANSITION EXPECTED BY SUNDAY AS A STUBBORN UPPER LOW                 
OFF THE CA COAST BEGINS TO WORK EAST INTO THE DESERT SW/NORTHERN                
MEX. NORTHWESTERLY MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL GRADUALLY BECOME MORE                    
ZONAL WITH TIME IN ADVANCE OF THIS FEATURE...WITH EMBEDDED                      
SHORTWAVES EXPECTED TO APPROACH WEST TX/SE NM BEGINNING SUN AFTERNOON.          
INCREASING WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL LEAD TO ENHANCED LEESIDE                    
TROUGHING...WITH TROUGH AXIS EXPECTED TO EXTEND SOUTHWARD ACROSS                
THE SOUTHEAST NM PLAINS AND WEST TX MOUNTAINS. STRONG WARM AIR                  
ADVECTION EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION WITH RISING H85 TEMPS THROUGH              
THE AFTERNOON. FAVORABLE MIXING ALSO ANTICIPATED AS LOW-LEVEL                   
LAPSE RATES BECOME NEARLY DRY ADIABATIC. ONLY CAVEAT WITH                       
INCREASING TEMPS SIGNIFICANTLY WITH THIS MORNING/S UPDATE IS THE                
EXPECTATIONS OF INCREASING MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS. IN ANY                    
EVENT...FORECASTED H85 TEMPS SUPPORT LOW TO MID 70S ACROSS MUCH OF              
THE REGION...HOWEVER WITH CONCERNS REGARDING CLOUDS...HAVE                      
ATTEMPTED TO PLAY IT SAFE AND ONLY RAISE TEMPS A FEW DEGREES FOR                
NOW PENDING LATER MODEL RUNS.                                                   
UNSETTLED WEATHER CONTINUING INTO THE EARLY WORK WEEK AS LEESIDE                
TROUGH/SFC LOW EXITS THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND SETTLES INTO THE                  
CENTRAL TX PANHANDLE BY 00Z TUE. ACROSS THE MID-LEVELS...AN UPPER               
TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO SWING INTO THE REGION AS WELL...WITH THE                  
ECMWF BEING THE MOST BULLISH OF MID-RANGE GUIDANCE. MODELS IN                   
RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT A WELL DEFINED DRYLINE WILL                      
SUPERSEDE THE LOW...HOWEVER FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY MOVE               
EASTWARD THROUGHOUT THE DAY AS THE LOW SINKS SOUTHWARD TRAPPING                 
THE BEST RETURN FLOW MOISTURE WELL OFF TO THE EAST OF THE CWA.                  
DESPITE THIS...MODELS DO DEVELOP PRECIP ACROSS THE REGION AS AN                 
UPPER SPEED MAX MOVES ACROSS THE REGION ALONG WITH APPRECIABLE SHORTWAVE        
ENERGY. HAVE RAISED POPS TO JUST UNDER MENTIONABLE LIMITS FOR NOW               
BASED ON COLLABORATION WITH ADJACENT OFFICES WHILE AWAITING FOR                 
RUN TO RUN MODEL MODEL CONTINUITY. STRONG COLD FRONT EXPECTED                   
ACROSS THE AREA EARLY TUESDAY MORNING WITH CONTINUED ACCELERATION               
TO THE SOUTH THROUGH THE DAY. COLD HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN                    
BEHIND THE FRONT WILL LEAD TO COOLER TEMPS HOWEVER TEMPS WILL                   
LIKELY REBOUND ON WED BEFORE ANOTHER REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR               
ARRIVES ON THU. GENERALLY USED A GFS/ECMWF BLEND FOR THE EXTENDED               
AS MINOR DIFFERENCES AT THE START OF THE PERIOD IRONED THEMSELVES               
OUT AS THE FORECAST PERIOD ADVANCED.                                            
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
BIG SPRING TX              44  29  61  34  /   0   0   0   0                    
CARLSBAD NM                49  31  67  33  /   0   0   0   0                    
DRYDEN TX                  49  35  67  41  /   0   0   0   0                    
FORT STOCKTON TX           50  35  70  41  /   0   0   0   0                    
GUADALUPE PASS TX          47  34  60  39  /   0   0   0   0                    
HOBBS NM                   47  30  65  33  /   0   0   0   0                    
MARFA TX                   51  24  65  28  /   0   0   0   0                    
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    45  30  63  35  /   0   0   0   0                    
ODESSA TX                  45  30  63  35  /   0   0   0   0                    
WINK TX                    49  31  70  34  /   0   0   0   0                    
&&                                                                              
.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
NM...NONE.                                                                      
TX...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
10/99                                                                           
</pre> tx                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX                                      
550 AM CST FRI DEC 5 2008                                                       
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
SEE 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.                                              
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS WELL ESTABLISHED ACROSS ALL TERMINALS                  
THIS MORNING. NORTHEAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING                 
HOURS WITH HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED EAST OF THE REGION. A TRANSITION              
TO SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL TAKE PLACE THIS AFTERNOON AS A                
SURFACE TROUGH BECOMES ESTABLISHED OVER THE PLAINS OF EASTERN NEW               
MEXICO AND WEST TEXAS. MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL ALSO                      
CONTINUE THROUGH THE CURRENT TAF FORECAST PERIOD.                               
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 500 AM CST FRI DEC 5 2008/                          
DISCUSSION...                                                                   
EARLY MORNING SURFACE ANALYSIS CONTINUING TO DEPICT A WELL                      
DEVELOPED SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDING INTO WEST TEXAS AND SOUTHEAST NM              
FROM A PARENT HIGH LOCATED ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL OK. PRESSURE                    
GRADIENT IN ASSOCIATION WITH FEATURE HAS KEPT A STEADY                          
NORTHEASTERLY WIND THIS MORNING...ULTIMATELY CREATING HIGH WIND                 
WARNING CONDITIONS ACROSS GUADALUPE PASS. LATEST OBS FROM KGDP                  
INDICATE WINDS BLOWING JUST ABOVE WARNING CRITERIA AND BASED ON                 
WIND FORECASTS FROM BOTH THE WRF AND RUC...FAVORABLE NORTHEASTERLY              
TRAJECTORY WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE MID MORNING. BASED ON                      
THIS...HAVE DECIDED TO EXTEND THE WARNING THROUGH 15Z...AFTER                   
WHICH WINDS WILL QUICKLY DECEASE AS THE SURFACE FLOW BEGINS TO                  
VEER MORE SOUTHEASTERLY. AFOREMENTIONED RIDGE AXIS REMAINING IN                 
PLACE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY ENSURING ANOTHER DAY OF WELL BELOW                
NORMAL TEMPS. CURRENT CONDITIONS UPSTREAM SHOW LOW TO MID TEEMS                 
ACROSS NORTHEASTERN KS THIS MORNING...AN INDICATION OF JUST HOW                 
COOL THE AIRMASS IS. WITH THIS IN MIND...HAVE DECIDED TO KEEP TEMPS             
IN THE LOW TO MID 40S ACROSS MUCH OF THE PERMIAN BASIN TODAY...AS               
REINFORCED COLD AIR WILL CONTINUE TO SETTLE INTO THE AREA AS                    
SIGNALED BY COOLER H85 TEMPS ALOFT. WITH HIGHS YESTERDAY ONLY                   
CLIMBING INTO THE MID TO UPPER 40S ACROSS MUCH OF THE                           
REGION...FEEL BASING THE CURRENT FORECAST ON PERSISTENCE IS THE                 
WAY TO GO. ALOFT...A HIGHLY SHEARED POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH WILL               
PASS OVERHEAD TODAY...YIELDING NOTHING MORE THAN ENHANCED                       
CLOUDINESS ALOFT BEFORE GRADUALLY CLEARING LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND              
EVENING FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST.                                            
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT...A SURFACE PRESSURE TROUGH ORIGINATING FROM                  
THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES WILL BEGIN TO WORK ITS WAY EASTWARD...WITH                 
CONTINUATION ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH TOMORROW AFTERNOON. BEHIND               
THE FEATURE...LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL BECOME MORE NORTHWESTERLY AS THE              
AFTERNOON PROGRESSES...SUGGESTING SOME DOWNSLOPE COMPRESSIONAL                  
WARMING POTENTIAL ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA. THIS IN COMBINATION              
WITH WARMING TEMPS ALOFT WILL SUPPORT NEAR NORMAL TEMPS ACROSS                  
MUCH OF THE REGION TOMORROW...WITH LOW TO MID 60S LIKELY RETURNING.             
PERIOD OF TRANSITION EXPECTED BY SUNDAY AS A STUBBORN UPPER LOW                 
OFF THE CA COAST BEGINS TO WORK EAST INTO THE DESERT SW/NORTHERN                
MEX. NORTHWESTERLY MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL GRADUALLY BECOME MORE                    
ZONAL WITH TIME IN ADVANCE OF THIS FEATURE...WITH EMBEDDED                      
SHORTWAVES EXPECTED TO APPROACH WEST TX/SE NM BEGINNING SUN AFTERNOON.          
INCREASING WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL LEAD TO ENHANCED LEESIDE                    
TROUGHING...WITH TROUGH AXIS EXPECTED TO EXTEND SOUTHWARD ACROSS                
THE SOUTHEAST NM PLAINS AND WEST TX MOUNTAINS. STRONG WARM AIR                  
ADVECTION EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION WITH RISING H85 TEMPS THROUGH              
THE AFTERNOON. FAVORABLE MIXING ALSO ANTICIPATED AS LOW-LEVEL                   
LAPSE RATES BECOME NEARLY DRY ADIABATIC. ONLY CAVEAT WITH                       
INCREASING TEMPS SIGNIFICANTLY WITH THIS MORNING/S UPDATE IS THE                
EXPECTATIONS OF INCREASING MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS. IN ANY                    
EVENT...FORECASTED H85 TEMPS SUPPORT LOW TO MID 70S ACROSS MUCH OF              
THE REGION...HOWEVER WITH CONCERNS REGARDING CLOUDS...HAVE                      
ATTEMPTED TO PLAY IT SAFE AND ONLY RAISE TEMPS A FEW DEGREES FOR                
NOW PENDING LATER MODEL RUNS.                                                   
UNSETTLED WEATHER CONTINUING INTO THE EARLY WORK WEEK AS LEESIDE                
TROUGH/SFC LOW EXITS THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND SETTLES INTO THE                  
CENTRAL TX PANHANDLE BY 00Z TUE. ACROSS THE MID-LEVELS...AN UPPER               
TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO SWING INTO THE REGION AS WELL...WITH THE                  
ECMWF BEING THE MOST BULLISH OF MID-RANGE GUIDANCE. MODELS IN                   
RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT A WELL DEFINED DRYLINE WILL                      
SUPERSEDE THE LOW...HOWEVER FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY MOVE               
EASTWARD THROUGHOUT THE DAY AS THE LOW SINKS SOUTHWARD TRAPPING                 
THE BEST RETURN FLOW MOISTURE WELL OFF TO THE EAST OF THE CWA.                  
DESPITE THIS...MODELS DO DEVELOP PRECIP ACROSS THE REGION AS AN                 
UPPER SPEED MAX MOVES ACROSS THE REGION ALONG WITH APPRECIABLE SHORTWAVE        
ENERGY. HAVE RAISED POPS TO JUST UNDER MENTIONABLE LIMITS FOR NOW               
BASED ON COLLABORATION WITH ADJACENT OFFICES WHILE AWAITING FOR                 
RUN TO RUN MODEL MODEL CONTINUITY. STRONG COLD FRONT EXPECTED                   
ACROSS THE AREA EARLY TUESDAY MORNING WITH CONTINUED ACCELERATION               
TO THE SOUTH THROUGH THE DAY. COLD HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN                    
BEHIND THE FRONT WILL LEAD TO COOLER TEMPS HOWEVER TEMPS WILL                   
LIKELY REBOUND ON WED BEFORE ANOTHER REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR               
ARRIVES ON THU. GENERALLY USED A GFS/ECMWF BLEND FOR THE EXTENDED               
AS MINOR DIFFERENCES AT THE START OF THE PERIOD IRONED THEMSELVES               
OUT AS THE FORECAST PERIOD ADVANCED.                                            
&&                                                                              
.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
NM...NONE.                                                                      
TX...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 8 AM MST THIS MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING            
     ZONES... GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS.                                              
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
06                                                                              
</pre> tx                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX                                      
500 AM CST FRI DEC 5 2008                                                       
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
EARLY MORNING SURFACE ANALYSIS CONTINUING TO DEPICT A WELL                      
DEVELOPED SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDING INTO WEST TEXAS AND SOUTHEAST NM              
FROM A PARENT HIGH LOCATED ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL OK. PRESSURE                    
GRADIENT IN ASSOCIATION WITH FEATURE HAS KEPT A STEADY                          
NORTHEASTERLY WIND THIS MORNING...ULTIMATELY CREATING HIGH WIND                 
WARNING CONDITIONS ACROSS GUADALUPE PASS. LATEST OBS FROM KGDP                  
INDICATE WINDS BLOWING JUST ABOVE WARNING CRITERIA AND BASED ON                 
WIND FORECASTS FROM BOTH THE WRF AND RUC...FAVORABLE NORTHEASTERLY              
TRAJECTORY WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE MID MORNING. BASED ON                      
THIS...HAVE DECIDED TO EXTEND THE WARNING THROUGH 15Z...AFTER                   
WHICH WINDS WILL QUICKLY DECEASE AS THE SURFACE FLOW BEGINS TO                  
VEER MORE SOUTHEASTERLY. AFOREMENTIONED RIDGE AXIS REMAINING IN                 
PLACE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY ENSURING ANOTHER DAY OF WELL BELOW                
NORMAL TEMPS. CURRENT CONDITIONS UPSTREAM SHOW LOW TO MID TEEMS                 
ACROSS NORTHEASTERN KS THIS MORNING...AN INDICATION OF JUST HOW                 
COOL THE AIRMASS IS. WITH THIS IN MIND...HAVE DECIDED TO KEEP TEMPS             
IN THE LOW TO MID 40S ACROSS MUCH OF THE PERMIAN BASIN TODAY...AS               
REINFORCED COLD AIR WILL CONTINUE TO SETTLE INTO THE AREA AS                    
SIGNALED BY COOLER H85 TEMPS ALOFT. WITH HIGHS YESTERDAY ONLY                   
CLIMBING INTO THE MID TO UPPER 40S ACROSS MUCH OF THE                           
REGION...FEEL BASING THE CURRENT FORECAST ON PERSISTENCE IS THE                 
WAY TO GO. ALOFT...A HIGHLY SHEARED POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH WILL               
PASS OVERHEAD TODAY...YIELDING NOTHING MORE THAN ENHANCED                       
CLOUDINESS ALOFT BEFORE GRADUALLY CLEARING LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND              
EVENING FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST.                                            
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT...A SURFACE PRESSURE TROUGH ORIGINATING FROM                  
THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES WILL BEGIN TO WORK ITS WAY EASTWARD...WITH                 
CONTINUATION ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH TOMORROW AFTERNOON. BEHIND               
THE FEATURE...LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL BECOME MORE NORTHWESTERLY AS THE              
AFTERNOON PROGRESSES...SUGGESTING SOME DOWNSLOPE COMPRESSIONAL                  
WARMING POTENTIAL ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA. THIS IN COMBINATION              
WITH WARMING TEMPS ALOFT WILL SUPPORT NEAR NORMAL TEMPS ACROSS                  
MUCH OF THE REGION TOMORROW...WITH LOW TO MID 60S LIKELY RETURNING.             
PERIOD OF TRANSITION EXPECTED BY SUNDAY AS A STUBBORN UPPER LOW                 
OFF THE CA COAST BEGINS TO WORK EAST INTO THE DESERT SW/NORTHERN                
MEX. NORTHWESTERLY MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL GRADUALLY BECOME MORE                    
ZONAL WITH TIME IN ADVANCE OF THIS FEATURE...WITH EMBEDDED                      
SHORTWAVES EXPECTED TO APPROACH WEST TX/SE NM BEGINNING SUN AFTERNOON.          
INCREASING WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL LEAD TO ENHANCED LEESIDE                    
TROUGHING...WITH TROUGH AXIS EXPECTED TO EXTEND SOUTHWARD ACROSS                
THE SOUTHEAST NM PLAINS AND WEST TX MOUNTAINS. STRONG WARM AIR                  
ADVECTION EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION WITH RISING H85 TEMPS THROUGH              
THE AFTERNOON. FAVORABLE MIXING ALSO ANTICIPATED AS LOW-LEVEL                   
LAPSE RATES BECOME NEARLY DRY ADIABATIC. ONLY CAVEAT WITH                       
INCREASING TEMPS SIGNIFICANTLY WITH THIS MORNING/S UDPATE IS THE                
EXPECTATIONS OF INCREASING MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS. IN ANY                    
EVENT...FORECASTED H85 TEMPS SUPPORT LOW TO MID 70S ACROSS MUCH OF              
THE REGION...HOWEVER WITH CONCERNS REGARDING CLOUDS...HAVE                      
ATTEMPTED TO PLAY IT SAFE AND ONLY RAISE TEMPS A FEW DEGREES FOR                
NOW PENDING LATER MODEL RUNS.                                                   
UNSETTLED WEATHER CONTINUING INTO THE EARLY WORK WEEK AS LEESIDE                
TROUGH/SFC LOW EXITS THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND SETTLES INTO THE                  
CENTRAL TX PANHANDLE BY 00Z TUE. ACROSS THE MID-LEVELS...AN UPPER               
TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO SWING INTO THE REGION AS WELL...WITH THE                  
ECMWF BEING THE MOST BULLISH OF MID-RANGE GUIDANCE. MODELS IN                   
RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT A WELL DEFINED DRYLINE WILL                      
SUPERSEDE THE LOW...HOWEVER FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY MOVE               
EASTWARD THROUGHOUT THE DAY AS THE LOW SINKS SOUTHWARD TRAPPING                 
THE BEST RETURN FLOW MOISTURE WELL OFF TO THE EAST OF THE CWA.                  
DESPITE THIS...MODELS DO DEVELOP PRECIP ACROSS THE REGION AS AN                 
UPPER SPEED MAX MOVES ACROSS THE REGION ALONG WITH APPRECIABLE SHORTWAVE        
ENERGY. HAVE RAISED POPS TO JUST UNDER MENTIONABLE LIMITS FOR NOW               
BASED ON COLLABORATION WITH ADJACENT OFFICES WHILE AWAITING FOR                 
RUN TO RUN MODEL MODEL CONTINUITY. STRONG COLD FRONT EXPECTED                   
ACROSS THE AREA EARLY TUESDAY MORNING WITH CONTINUED ACCELERATION               
TO THE SOUTH THROUGH THE DAY. COLD HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN                    
BEHIND THE FRONT WILL LEAD TO COOLER TEMPS HOWEVER TEMPS WILL                   
LIKELY REBOUND ON WED BEFORE ANOTHER REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR               
ARRIVES ON THU. GENERALLY USED A GFS/ECMWF BLEND FOR THE EXTENDED               
AS MINOR DIFFERENCES AT THE START OF THE PERIOD IRONED THEMSELVES               
OUT AS THE FORECAST PERIOD ADVANCED.                                            
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
BIG SPRING TX              44  29  61  34  /   0   0   0   0                    
CARLSBAD NM                49  31  67  33  /   0   0   0   0                    
DRYDEN TX                  49  35  67  41  /   0   0   0   0                    
FORT STOCKTON TX           50  35  70  41  /   0   0   0   0                    
GUADALUPE PASS TX          47  34  60  39  /   0   0   0   0                    
HOBBS NM                   47  30  65  33  /   0   0   0   0                    
MARFA TX                   51  24  65  28  /   0   0   0   0                    
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    45  30  63  35  /   0   0   0   0                    
ODESSA TX                  45  30  63  35  /   0   0   0   0                    
WINK TX                    49  31  70  34  /   0   0   0   0                    
&&                                                                              
.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
NM...NONE.                                                                      
TX...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 8 AM MST THIS MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING            
     ZONES... GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS.                                              
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
32                                                                              
</pre> tx                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA                                          
252 AM EST SAT DEC 6 2008                                                       
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES                
TONIGHT. A FAST MOVING ALBERTA CLIPPER WILL MOVE ACROSS THE OHIO                
VALLEY SATURDAY PASSING NORTH OF THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT. MOUNTAIN              
SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES ARE LIKELY SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY                 
ALONG WITH BLUSTERY NORTHWEST WINDS.                                            
&&                                                                              
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...                                                 
THE LATEST 12KM NAM...AND TO AN EXTENT THE RUC13 IS DOING A GOOD                
JOB SHOWING THE CLOUDINESS OVER THE NC FOOTHILLS. NAM MODEL                     
SOUNDINGS SUGGEST A SHALLOW LAYER OF THIS CLOUD DECK TO SHIFT                   
NORTH AND EAST INTO THE OUR SRN CWA THROUGH DAWN. HAVE MADE                     
ADJUSTMENTS TO THE GRIDS TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS.                                   
OTHERWISE...LOOKING AT EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS                 
TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE AREA. MODELS DO SHOW                  
SOME WARM AIR ADVECTING IN ALOFT AFTER MIDNIGHT. THIS MAY KEEP                  
SOUTHWESTERN VIRGINIA RIDGES (BLF) WARMER THAN THE REST OF THE                  
AREA OVERNIGHT. DESPITE CALLING THE RIDGES WARMER...STILL LOOKING               
AT A COLD NIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES 10-20F ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS TO                
LOWER 20S EAST AND ALONG SW VA WESTERN RIDGES. THE 12KM NAM IS                  
DEPICTING                                                                       
WARM AIR ADVECTION CONTINUES INTO THE DAY SATURDAY...AHEAD OF A                 
CLIPPER CROSSING OVER THE GREAT LAKES. MOISTURE TRANSPORT INCREASING            
THROUGH THE DAY ON SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. THIS WILL BRING AN INCREASE              
IN CLOUDS ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE DAY. ATMOSPHERE REMAINING COLD            
WITH 850 MB TEMPERATURES -4C TO -7C. IF PRECIP DOES FALL SATURDAY               
AFTERNOON...IT WILL REMAIN AS SNOW...ALONG AND WEST OF THE BLUE                 
RIDGE AS RELATIVELY WARM SURFACE LAYER WILL BE SHALLOW.. IF CLOUDS              
INCREASE DURING THE MORNING...INSOLATION WILL BE LIMITED AND A FEW              
FLAKES COULD BE OBSERVED IN THE PIEDMONT. OF COURSE...THAT IS IF                
PRECIP FALLS. 12Z NAM BEING ONE OF THE DRIEST MODELS TODAY ONLY HAS             
GREENBRIER AND BATH COUNTY WITH MEASURABLE PRECIP. ON THE OTHER                 
HAND...12Z GFS/CANADIAN/EUROPEAN HAS PRECIP AS FAR EAST AS THE                  
FOOTHILLS. I DO HAVE SOME CONCERNS ABOUT THE START TIME AND                     
MEASURABLE AMOUNTS WITH PARENT LOW SO FAR NORTH AND OVER THE GREAT              
LAKES. WILL SLOW DOWN POPS JUST A TAD UNTIL THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON WITH      
THESE CONCERNS AND THAT THE ATMOSPHERE WILL NEED TIME TO SATURATE               
AGAIN. WILL MAINTAIN CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE WEST WITH SLIGHT CHANCE             
IN THE EAST. NEVERTHELESS...ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE LIGHT DURING THE              
DAY.                                                                            
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...                                    
DRY AIR QUICKLY MOVES INTO EXTREME SW VA AND NE NC...SUCH THAT                  
SNOW SHWS SHOULD SHUT OFF QUICK SUNDAY MORNING THERE. DESPITE LACK              
OF MOISTURE...-15C H85 TEMPS IN WESTERN GREENBRIER COULD CHURN OUT              
ANOTHER COUPLE INCHES...MAINLY THE FIRST PART OF SUNDAY. WINDS                  
WILL BE GUSTY ALONG NW NC...WITH BUFKIT MOMENTUM TRANSFER SHOWING               
50KT GUSTS BLO THE INVERSION. CONSIDERING THAT SOME SUN WILL POP                
OUT LATER SUNDAY...AND AT LEAST A WIND ADV WILL NEED TO BE                      
CONSIDERED FOR THE NW NC HIGHLANDS.                                             
COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVER THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT...1030                
MB...PASSING OVERHEAD AROUND 06 UTC...THEN TO ALONG THE MID                     
ATLANTIC COAST BY 18 UTC. CLEAR SKIES AND DIMINISHING WINDS SHOULD              
PROMOTE COLD SURFACE TEMPS SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS LOOKS LIKE THE                    
COLDEST NIGHT THUS FAR THIS SEASON...AND WENT AT LEAST A FEW                    
DEGREES BLO GUIDANCE EVERYWHERE. VALLEYS WILL LIKELY HIT THE                    
SINGLE DIGITS.                                                                  
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...                                           
GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT ON MAINTAINING TWO SEPARATE             
SHORTWAVE TROUGHS AS A MEAN LONGWAVE TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE PLAINS            
AND SOUTHERN ROCKIES ON DAY 3...BEFORE PROGRESSING THROUGH THE                  
REMAINDER OF THE CONUS BY DAYS 6/7.                                             
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OFFSHORE BY MONDAY NIGHT WITH STRONG WARM AIR             
ADVECTION DEVELOPING. BY TUESDAY NIGHT THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE                
WELL INTO THE WARM SECTOR SO THERE MAY NOT BE MUCH OF A DROP IN                 
OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES. HAVE SLOWED DOWN THE TIMING OF THE                      
FRONT...BUT EVEN WITH FRONT NOT COMING THROUGH UNTIL LATER ON                   
WEDNESDAY...TEMPERATURES MAY ONLY RISE A FEW DEGREES WITH ALL THE               
PRECIPITATION AND CLOUD COVER.                                                  
NOT MUCH CHANGE TO HPC GUIDANCE FOR DAYS 6 AND 7 EXCEPT TO CONFINE              
SHOWERS TO THE MOUNTAINS.                                                       
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...                                   
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY MOVE OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE                        
PERIOD...KEEPING VFR CONDITIONS IN PLACE.                                       
SATURDAY...CLOUDS INCREASE AHEAD OF ANOTHER CLIPPER. LOOK FOR CIGS              
TO REMAIN VFR AT ROA/LYH/DAN THIS PERIOD...WHILE SOME LIGHT                     
SNOW...SNOW FLURRIES MOVE INTO BLF/LWB DURING THE AFTERNOON. CIGS               
WILL DROP TO MVFR WITH IT. THERE WILL BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF                      
IMPROVEMENT TO VFR LATER IN THE AFTERNOON IN SE WV...B4 FLOW                    
SHIFTS TO THE WEST/NW WITH SNOW SHOWERS ARRIVING TOWARD THE END OF              
THIS TAF PERIOD. AGAIN...CIGS WILL DROP TO MVFR...AND COULD FALL                
TO IFR AFTER 06Z SUNDAY. THIS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY                      
MORNING WITH UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS AFTER THE CLIPPER PASSES BY.                  
ROA...LYH AND DAN WILL BE VFR INTO SUNDAY...BUT WITH GUSTY                      
NORTHWEST WINDS...ARRIVING LATE SAT NIGHT.                                      
VFR WEATHER IS EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AS                    
ANOTHER COLD HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA. ANOTHER COLD                   
FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION TUESDAY...BRINGING DETERIORATING                 
CONDITIONS IN RAIN AND A GOOD CHC OF MVFR...POSSIBLY IFR CIGS AND               
VSBYS BY THE END OF THE DAY.                                                    
&&                                                                              
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
VA...NONE.                                                                      
NC...NONE.                                                                      
WV...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SYNOPSIS...PM                                                                   
NEAR TERM...RCS/WP                                                              
SHORT TERM...KM/PM                                                              
LONG TERM...AMS                                                                 
AVIATION...RCS/WP                                                               
</pre> va                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI                                           
311 AM CST SAT DEC 6 2008                                                       
.SHORT TERM...THROUGH MONDAY                                                    
MUCH OF THE CONCERN IN THE SHORT TERM LIES IN TWO AREAS....TODAY/S              
WINDS AND COLD WITH FLURRIES AND BLOWING SNOW...AND SUNDAY                      
AFTN/NIGHT SNOW AMOUNTS. FORECAST CONFIDENCE THROUGH THE SHORT                  
TERM REMAINS RELATIVELY HIGH THANKS TO SOLID SHORT TERM MODEL                   
AGREEMENT BEFORE THINGS RAPIDLY DETERIORATE INTO MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT.           
CURRENTLY...POTENT FAMILY OF SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH WI/MN IN                 
LEFT EXIT REGION OF 160KT JETLET DIGGING DOWN THE BACKSIDE OF                   
IMPRESSIVE WRN CONUS RIDGING. THIS HAS DRIVEN A LARGE AREA OF                   
LGT/MOD SNOWS ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT WITH WIDESPREAD 1-2 INCH                
AMOUNTS AND POSSIBLY A LITTLE MORE ALONG/EAST OF MS RIVER. IN WAKE              
OF DEEP LIFT/STEADY SNOW...SOME -FZDZ/SNOW GRAIN MIXTURE HAS                    
DEVELOPED BETWEEN TC METRO AND KLSE WITH MANY OBS HAVING UNKNOWN                
PRECIP AND LOOK OUTSIDE THE OFFICE CONFIRMS A SKOSH OF FZDZ IN                  
THE NARROW WARM SECTOR SOUTH/WEST OF THE LOW AS IT MOVES THROUGH                
WITH RUC SOUNDINGS SUGGESTING TOP OF LOW CLOUD DECK RIGHT AT -8C                
TO -10C...WHICH SUPPORTS THE MIX OF FZDZ/SNOW GRAINS. 1002MB SFC                
LOW NEAR KEAU ALSO HELPING TO FOCUS CONVERGENCE ACROSS THE MS                   
RIVER INTO CNTL WISCONSIN. COLD TEMPS /AND GUARANTEED ICE                       
ACTIVATION/ NOT TOO FAR ENOUGH WITH TEMPS PLUMMETING INTO THE LOW               
TEENS NOW IN CNTL MN WITH STRONG WINDS /25-30KTS/. NEXT SHORTWAVE               
OF CONCERN SEEN IN GOES WV LOOPS CRESTING WRN CONUS RIDGE OFF BC                
COAST.                                                                          
TODAY...COLD FRONT SWINGS THROUGH THE AREA AROUND SUNRISE OR A                  
LITTLE EARLIER WHICH STARTS A TEMP FREEFALL AS 850MB TEMPS START                
DAY AT -10C AND END THE DAY AT -20C. SFC TEMPS WILL BE IN A STEADY              
FALL ALL DAY FROM THE MID/UPPER 20S AT DAYBREAK INTO THE                        
LOW/MIDDLE TEENS BY SUNSET. WINDS A BIG CONCERN TODAY...AS LAPSE                
RATES REALLY STEEPEN IN THE STRONG COLD ADVECTION...SUPPORTING                  
TRANSFER OF 30KT GUSTS TO THE SFC IN THE STRONG                                 
SUBSIDENCE/PRESSURE RISE BUBBLE ESPECIALLY THIS MORNING. WITH THE               
NEW 1-3 INCHES OF SNOW AREA-WIDE...AND THEN THE PERIOD OF TEMPS                 
NEAR 30 AND FZDZ OVERNIGHT...THERE IS UNCERTAINTY HOW THE SNOW                  
WILL BLOW AROUND TODAY. THINK WINDS WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO                    
REALLY DRIFT IN OPEN AREAS...SO EXPANDED BLSN ACROSS ENTIRE AREA                
THROUGH EARLY AFTN WHEN WINDS BEGIN TO FALL BACK SOME. DON/T SEE                
VIS RESTRICTIONS FROM BLSN UPSTREAM...BUT ROADS MAY GET DICEY IN A              
FEW OPEN AREAS. PLENTY OF FLURRIES UPSTREAM IN THE THIN BKN-OVC                 
STRATOCUMULUS FIELD...SO KEPT FLURRIES IN THE FORECAST...ALL AREAS              
SHOULD SEE FLAKES FLYING FROM TIME TO TIME. A LITTLE CONCERN GIVEN              
THE LAPSE RATES THAT A FEW MORE VIGOROUS SHSN MAY DEVELOP...AND                 
THIS WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED. WIND CHILLS BY LATE AFTERNOON DIP                 
BELOW ZERO...WILL BE QUITE UNCOMFORTABLE OUTDOORS TODAY.                        
TONIGHT...RIDGING/HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS CLEARING SKIES FOR A BRIEF               
PERIOD BEFORE MID/HIGH CLOUDS AHEAD OF NEXT WAVE SPREAD IN FROM                 
WEST TO EAST LATE IN THE NIGHT. SHOULD BE ENOUGH TIME GIVEN FRESH               
SNOW AND CLEAR SKIES AND RAPIDLY DECOUPLING BOUNDARY LAYER TO DROP              
TEMPS NEAR/BELOW ZERO MOST AREAS...AND KEPT PREVIOUS TEMPS INTACT.              
SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT...STILL FEEL GOOD ABOUT LIGHT SNOW                          
ACCUMULATION EVENT SPREADING IN FROM WEST TO EAST DURING SUN AFTN               
INTO SUN NIGHT. DRIVEN LARGELY BY DEEP LAYER ISENTROPIC ASCENT                  
/WARM ADVECTION/ AND STRONG LOW/MID LEVEL QG WITH AN OVERALL WEAK               
PV STRUCTURE. WIND VECTORS ON THE THETA SFCS ALMOST PERFECTLY                   
ORTHOGONAL TO THE PRESSURE SFCS SUGGESTING OPTIMUM UPGLIDE AND                  
GOOD OMEGA..CONFIRMED IN CROSS SECTIONS AND BUFR SOUNDINGS THROUGH              
THE EVENT. WHILE OVERALL SYSTEM MUCH WEAKER THAN CURRENT...WILL                 
MAKE UP FOR IT IN GOOD SNOWFALL RATIOS /AT START OF EVENT/ AND                  
BETTER MOISTURE ON 280-290K LAYER /SPEC HUMIDITY/. ANOTHER 1-2                  
INCHES LOOKS LIKELY...WITH 3 INCHES PROBABLY AN OUTLIER BUT                     
POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY WEST OF RIVER WITH LIFT WEAKENING AS IT MOVES               
EAST/SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA. A MORE RECENT DEVELOPMENT HERE ON               
SUNDAY NIGHT AS RAPID EROSION OF ICE-BEARING CLOUD IN LATE                      
EVENING/OVERNIGHT WITH BOTH DETERMINISTIC RUNS OF GFS/NAM BUFR                  
SOUNDINGS SHOWING A VERY DEEP LOW LEVEL /SFC-2.5KM/ SATURATED                   
LAYER UNDERNEATH THE DRY AIR ALOFT. STRONG WARM ADVECTION STILL                 
OCCURRING IN THIS LAYER BUT OMEGA IS WEAK. HINTS OF CONVERGENCE                 
AXIS /WARM FRONT/ MOVING THROUGH AT THIS TIME SO SNOW COULD                     
DEFINITELY END AS A PERIOD OF FREEZING DRIZZLE SUNDAY NIGHT SO                  
ADDED THIS POTENTIAL TO FORECAST. BOTH MODELS ALSO PAINTING TELL-               
TALE SPECKLES OF VERY LIGHT QPF /DRIZZLE SIGNAL/ ON THE FORECAST                
AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT SO THIS TOO NEEDS TO BE WATCHED.                            
.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY                                        
CONFIDENCE STILL WELL BELOW AVG IN THIS TIME PERIOD. STILL SEEING               
HUGE DISCREPANCIES IN NUMEROUS AREAS...FIRST WITH HOW MON                       
NIGHT/TUES WAVES PHASE /OR NOT PHASE/ AND THEN HOW MUCH ARCTIC AIR IS           
AROUND FOR WED/THUR/FRI. STILL SEEING VERY LARGE SPREAD IN BOTH                 
LOW RESOLUTION ENSEMBLE MEMBERS...AND HIGHER RESOLUTION                         
DETERMINISTIC RUNS WITH 850MB TEMPS ABOUT 15C TO 20C DIFFERENT FOR              
WED/THUR BETWEEN GFS AND ECMWF. NO WONDER CONFIDENCE PLOTS                      
BASICALLY SUGGESTING ENSEMBLE DATA USELESS IN THIS DEGREE OF                    
SPREAD/UNCERTAINTY.                                                             
THE BIG FOCUS WILL BE ON MON NIGHT/TUES CNTL CONUS STORM WHICH HAS              
SHOWN A TREND IN ALL DETERMINISTIC RUNS TO SHIFT NORTHWARD GIVEN                
VARYING DEGREES OF PHASING OF THE NRN/SRN STREAMS ACROSS THE CNTL               
CONUS. THE NEW 06.00Z ECMWF /PROVEN SUPERIOR IN THIS TIME FRAME TO              
NCEP MODELS/ HAS TRENDED TOWARD A BONAFIDE HEAVY SNOW EVENT FOR                 
MUCH OF IOWA INTO SRN WISCONSIN. THERE IS LESSER SUPPORT...BUT                  
SUPPORT NONETHELESS FROM THE 06.00Z NAM-WRF AND CAN GEM...BUT                   
06.00Z GFS AND GEFS PROBABILITIES ARE WELL SOUTH. GIVEN THE                     
UNCERTAINTY...TOOK BABY STEPS FOR THE TIME BEING AND BUMPED UP                  
SNOW CHANCES ALL AREAS...ESP SOUTH TO 50S/60S WITH NOTION THESE                 
MAY NEED TO GO SIGNIFICANTLY HIGHER WITH ONE MORE BATCH OF                      
SUPPORTING RUNS FROM ECMWF/GEM/WRF. THERE/S EVEN A HINT AT A START              
OF RAIN/FZRA IN THE SOUTH MONDAY NIGHT...BUT NEED TO SEE MORE                   
SUPPORT FOR THIS BEFORE PUTTING IN FORECAST. BOTTOM LINE...IF                   
ECMWF TRENDS PROVE CORRECT...THIS STORM HAS CAPABILITY FOR                      
SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS...AND WILL BEAR CLOSE WATCHING.                       
FURTHER UNCERTAINTIES WITH THE SHORTWAVE /NRN STREAM/ SET TO RUN                
ACROSS THE NRN CONUS WED/WED NIGHT. MADE NO CHANGES HERE...AND                  
THIS WAVE HAS HUGE IMPLICATIONS FOR TEMPERATURES /THUS THE HUGE                 
SPREAD CURRENTLY SEEN IN ENSEMBLE/DETERMINISTIC RUNS/. PLENTY MORE              
ENERGY TO BE HAD IN THIS PATTERN TOWARD END OF WEEK INTO THE                    
WEEKEND...CERTAINLY WILL BE ACTIVE/INTERESTING WITH BOATLOADS OF                
ARCTIC AIR CONTINUING TO BUILD IN CANADA AS LONGWAVE TROUGH SHIFTS              
TO WEST CONUS BY NEXT WEEKEND.                                                  
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...TODAY INTO SUNDAY                                                   
SHORTWAVE RESPONSIBLE FOR THE -SN AND PATCHY -FZDZ WILL EXIT                    
QUICKLY EARLY THIS MORNING WITH THE PRECIP COMING TO AN END BEFORE              
12Z. HOWEVER...AN EXPANSIVE MVFR STRATO-CU DECK EXTENDS UPSTREAM                
ACROSS MN/EASTERN DAKOTAS BEHIND IT. BRISK NORTHWEST WINDS BEHIND               
THIS SYSTEM WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA FOR MUCH OF THE                         
DAY...CREATING SOME BLOWING/DRIFTING OF THE NEW SNOW THRU THIS                  
MORNING. THESE WINDS AND STRONG SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF THE                   
LOW/FRONT AND SHORTWAVE CREATING SOME BREAKS IN THE MVFR CLOUD                  
DECK ACROSS WESTERN MN. THESE BREAKS RATHER PATCHY AND TRANSITORY               
AND BKN/OVC MVFR CLOUDS EXPECTED TO DOMINATE THRU THE DAY. SFC TO               
850MB RIDGE AXIS SLIDES ACROSS THE REGION FOR TONIGHT. LOWER LEVEL              
DIVERGENCE IN THE RIDGE AXIS AND SHALLOWER MOISTURE/DRIER AIR                   
MOVING IN SHOULD ALLOW THE LOWER CLOUD DECK TO BREAK UP/SCATTER                 
OUT FOR TONIGHT. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THRU SUN MORNING WITH                  
CLOUDS INCREASING AND -SN MOVING BACK INTO THE TAF SITES BY LATER               
SUN AFTERNOON.                                                                  
&&                                                                              
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
WI...NONE.                                                                      
MN...NONE.                                                                      
IA...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHORT/LONG TERM...BINAU                                                         
AVIATION...RRS                                                                  
</pre> wi                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI                                  
357 AM CST FRI DEC 5 2008                                                       
.DISCUSSION...FORECAST FOCUS IS ON SNOW FOR TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY               
MORNING...THEN SYSTEM FOR SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.                    
TODAY-                                                                          
COLD 850 MILLIBAR POCKET WILL GET WHISKED EAST AS WARM AIR                      
ADVECTION GETS GOING. QUITE A BIT OF STRATOCU AROUND FROM WESTERN               
WI EXTENDING INTO IA AND MN WITH THE CIRRUS SHIELD SPREADING SEWD               
FROM CANADA. 925 MB TEMPERATURES SUPPORT THE LOWER 20S WE HAVE                  
GOING IN THE GRIDS SO WONT CHANGE TOO MUCH THERE. SO EVEN THOUGH                
WAA KICKING IN...INCREASE IN CLOUDS...WINDS AND THE COLD START                  
WILL PRETTY MUCH KEEP THE CHILL GOING ALL DAY.                                  
TONIGHT-                                                                        
RAPID ISENTROPIC MOISTENING ON THE 280-285K ISENTROPIC PLOTS THIS               
EVENING AS DECENT UPGLIDE LEADS TO SATURATION WITHIN THE WAA REGIME             
AHEAD OF APPROACHING TROUGH. THIS LOOKS TO BE A QUICK HITTER WITH               
700-300MB Q VECTOR CONVERGENCE SHOWING A PEAK IN THE L-M20S AROUND              
6Z WITH MUCH OF THE LIFT AND ISENTROPIC ADIABATIC OMEGA EXITING                 
SHORTLY AFTER 12Z SATURDAY. NOT A REAL STRONG CROSS HAIRS SIGNATURE.            
MIXING RATIOS ARE AROUND 1.5 G/KG IN THE 700-725MB LAYER. RATIOS                
EXPECTED TO BE 15:1. GIVEN QPF AMOUNTS AROUND 0.15 THE GOING 2-3                
INCH FORECAST LOOKS LIKE A TOUGH TWEEK. WILL MENTION SOME BLOWING               
SNOW IN THE HWO AS BUFKIT WINDS/PROGGD SFC GRADIENT SHOW PRETTY                 
BRISK CONDITIONS DURING TIME OF PEAK SNOWFALL AND COMBINED WITH                 
HIGHER RATIOS/LOWER WATER CONTENT SNOW...COULD BE SOME ISSUES                   
WITH THAT.                                                                      
SATURDAY-                                                                       
SURFACE-850 FRONT WILL BE EXITING EARLY WITH MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS              
ROTATING ACROSS MIDDAY. WILL HAVE HIGHEST POPS IN THE EAST.                     
RETURN TO COLD AIR ADVECTION DURING THE DAY WITH 700 MILLIBAR DRYING            
AND SUBSIDENCE ESPECIALLY AFTER PASSAGE OF MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS.               
FAIRLY STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES MAY BE CONDUCIVE TO A FEW SNOW               
SHOWERS DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH WINDS CRANKING UP AS WELL. GFS/NAM            
AND CRAS SUGGESTING LIGHT QPF TIED TO THE MID LEVEL VORT.                       
SUNDAY-                                                                         
QUIET AND CHILLY AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE SLIDES ACROSS THE STATE.                
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY-                                                       
SNOW EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP SUNDAY EVENING AS RENEWED ISENTROPIC                 
FORCING INTERACTS WITH RIGHT REAR QUADRANT OF UPPER LEVEL JET                   
STREAM. RAPID SATURATION AGAIN NOTED ON THE ISENTROPIC SURFACES WITH            
CRASHING CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS. 12Z AND 00Z ECMWF HAD QPF              
MAX TO OUR NORTH HOWEVER THEY HAVE TRENDED A BIT SOUTH MORE INTO THE            
OUR CWA. MEANWHILE GFS AND NAM HAVE A MORE SOUTHERN PLACEMENT OF QPF            
ACORSS NORTHERN ILLINOIS. BEST ROUTE FOR NOW IS TO GO WITH CHANCE               
POPS FOR THIS LEAD WAA EVENT.                                                   
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY-                                                       
00Z ECMWF DEFINITELY PAINTING A GLOOMIER SCENARIO WITH A STRONGER               
SOUTHERN WAVE SCOOTING NEWD TOWARDS OHIO VALLEY WHILE GFS HAS MUCH              
MORE INFLUENCE OF THE NORTHERN STREAM AND A QUICKER MORE PROGRESSIVE            
LOOK TO THINGS. ECMWF CERTAINLY TAPS MORE MOISTURE AND BRINGS ALMOST            
0.50 INCH LIQUID WITH IT/S ASSOCIATED ENERGY.                                   
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...LATEST IR IMAGES SHOWING WIDE SWATH OF LOW CLOUDS                   
UPSTREAM OVER MN/IA CAUGHT UNDERNEATH SUBSIDENCE INVERSION.  WITH               
THERMAL TROUGH LINGERING OVER WI THROUGH THE MORNING AND INCREASING             
WSW LOW LEVEL FLOW...WOULD EXPECT A PERIOD OF BKN-OVC CLOUDS THIS               
MORNING WITH CEILING HEIGHTS AROUND 3K FEET. LATEST RUC ALSO SHOWING            
SOME INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL RH THIS MORNING.  WOULD EXPC CEILINGS TO             
INCREASE TO VFR THIS AFTN IN INCREASING LOW LEVEL FLOW AHEAD OF                 
APPROACHING CLIPPER SYSTEM.  PERIOD OF SNOW FROM 05Z THROUGH 14Z                
WILL RESULT IN IFR VSBYS AND MVFR CIGS TONIGHT.                                 
&&                                                                              
.MARINE...WILL CONTINUE BORDERLINE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THIS MORNING            
AS RELATIVELY WARMER WATERS OF LAKE MICHIGAN WITH SURFACE TEMPS                 
AROUND 4 DEGREES C ALLOWING WINDS TO GUST INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE              
20S TOWARDS THE OPEN WATERS...AS VERIFIED BY HARRISON CRIB LAST FEW             
HOURS. TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT AHEAD OF CANADIAN CLIPPER WILL RESULT       
IN STRONG LOW LEVEL SOUTHWEST WINDS DEVELOPING OVER THE NEARSHORE               
WATERS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.  STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES                 
COULD RESULT IN A BRIEF PERIOD OF GALE FORCE GUSTS MIXING DOWN TO               
SURFACE THIS EVENING BUT ATTM THINKING THIS WILL BE BRIEF...SO WL               
CONTINUE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING              
LEADING UP TO WIND SHIFT ASSOCIATED WITH PASSING SYSTEM. STRONG LOW             
LEVEL COLD AIR ADVECTION DEVELOPS SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH A BETTER              
CHANCE FOR A MORE PROLONGED PERIOD OF GALE FORCE WINDS AND/OR GUSTS             
DUE TO VERY STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES.  HENCE CONVERTED SMALL                 
CRAFT ADVISORY THAT WAS IN EFFECT SAT AFTN TO GALE WATCH AND                    
EXTENDED HEADLINE TO 06Z/SUN.                                                   
&&                                                                              
.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
WI...NONE.                                                                      
LM...GALE WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR            
     LMZ643>646.                                                                
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 12 PM CST SATURDAY FOR LMZ643>646.              
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHORT/LONG TERM...PAC                                                           
AVIATION/MARINE...MBK                                                           
</pre> wi                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA                                       
1254 AM EST SUN DEC 7 2008                                                      
.AVIATION.../06Z TAFS/                                                          
PERIODS OF MVFR RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE                
REGION TODAY. LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE                 
NORTHERN HALF OF THE FA WITH VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS DOWN TO 1                  
MILE POSSIBLE IN SOME OF THE MORE INTENSE BANDS ACROSS SOUTHERN                 
MI. OTHERWISE...DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT AND DIMINISHING INSTABILITY                 
WILL SUPPORT A WANING TREND IN ACTIVITY THROUGH MORNING. IN                     
ADDITION...WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS               
INTO THE REGION...BACKING IN THE PROCESS. VERY COLD AIR ALOFT                   
COMBINED WITH SUNSHINE AND ADDED LL MOISTURE FROM THE LAKE MI WILL              
SUPPORT A PERIOD OF SCT TO BKN MVFR CIGS INTO EARLY AFTERNOON                   
ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FA...SHIFTING NORTH THROUGH THE DAY              
WITH DEVELOPING SOUTHERLY FLOW. A FEW FLURRIES ARE ALSO POSSIBLE.               
WEAK UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE WILL ADVANCE INTO THE GREAT LAKES BY                   
EVENING...SUPPORTING AREAS OF LIGHT SNOW...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE                
NORTH. DETAILS ON INTENSITY AND COVERAGE ARE STILL UNKNOWN.                     
HENCE...WILL LEAVE OUT ANY RESTRICTIONS AND ONLY ADD WX MENTION TO              
TAF TO HIGHLIGHT POTENTIAL.                                                     
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 616 PM EST SAT DEC 6 2008/                          
UPDATE... SFC CDFNT IN ASSOCN/W SW TROUGH CLIPPING THROUGH CNTRL                
LWR MI ATTM ABT TO CLR NW OH. STG CAA IN WAKE OF SFC BNDRY W/RAPID              
VEERING OF FLW ACRS LK MI AND RAMPING SNOW STREAMERS DVLPG IN ITS               
WAKE. UPSTREAM TEMPS CRASHING W/SINGLE DIGITS NOTED OVR MOST OF                 
MN. INITIAL LL FLW TRAJECTORY AT 320 DEGREES BUT VEERS FURTHER                  
UPSTREAM TO 300 AND SIMILAR TO 21Z RUC/12Z 4KM ARW PROGS. WHILE                 
THIS SUGGESTS GOING WSW HIGHLIGHTS ON THE MARK...IT ALSO RAISES                 
SOME FLAGS FURTHER INLAND ESP IN LIGHT OF STG LL MEAN FLW AND                   
INLAND CREEP XPCD W/INTENSE MULTIPLE SNOW BANDS. HIRES ARW OUTPUT               
CONFIRMED BY 21Z RUC MAKE A CASE FOR E/SE EXPANSION OF ADVISORY                 
OVERNIGHT AND POTENTIAL UPGRADE TO WARNING FOR ST JOE MI/ELKHART.               
HWVR GIVEN DIMINISHING RESIDUAL CYCLONIC MSTR AND DECREASING                    
INVERSION HGTS LT TONIGHT...DURATION OF HEAVIER SNOW LIMITED. WILL              
CONT TO MONITOR UPSTREAM DVLPMNTS THROUGH 7PM GIVEN EXISTING                    
ADVISORY TIL THEN.                                                              
GENERALLY MVFR CONDS THROUGH THE PD XCP AT KSBN WHERE IFR                       
RESTRICTIONS TO VSBY/CIG WILL CONT OVERNIGHT BFR IMPRVG SOMEWHAT AFT            
DAYBREAK SUN.                                                                   
SHORT TERM...                                                                   
LOW OVER NRN MI WITH CDFNT EXTENDING SW ACROSS NRN INDIANA THIS                 
AFTN. MID LEVEL DRY SLOT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WAS ALSO                   
PUSHING EAST ACROSS THE CWA THIS AFTN. CONTINUING TO GET SOME                   
REPORTS OF FREEZING DRIZZLE IN THE DRY SLOT AND NORTHEAST OF THERE              
SNOWFALL WAS IN THE 1-3" RANGE WITH GUSTY WINDS AND SNOW SHOWERS                
ALONG THE COLD FRONT CAUSING SOME SGFNT WINTER WX HAZARDS SO                    
EXTENDED ADVISORY ISSUED THIS MORNING TIL 7PM. MULT BAND LAKE                   
EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS DVLPG OVER NW PORTION OF CWA ATTM. SHRTWV SEEN              
ON WATER VAPOR MOVG SE ACROSS NRN LM/NE WI THIS AFTN WILL MOVE SE               
ACRS THE CWA THIS EVE...LIKELY ENHANCING THE SNOW SHOWER                        
ACTIVITY. 925MB OMEGA FCSTS SUGGEST BEST POTENTIAL FOR DOMINANT                 
BAND OVERNIGHT WILL BE ACROSS BERRIEN/CASS SEWD THROUGH                         
ELKHART/ST. JOE INDIANA. INVERSION FCST TO LOWER TO UNDER 5KFT                  
LATE TONIGHT. WOULD EXPECT THIS TO DIMINISH INTENSITY OF SNOW                   
SHOWERS CONSIDERABLY BY MORNING... HWVR AS GRADIENT WINDS DECREASE              
OVERNIGHT... THERE WILL BE A TENDENCY FOR LAND BREEZE COMPONENT TO              
WIND TO DVLP ENHANCING CONVERGENCE ALONG ERN SHORE...LIKELY                     
CAUSING OR SUSTAINING A DOMINANT BAND IN THAT AREA THROUGH SUNDAY               
MORNING. NAM12 SHOWING WK SFC TROF MOVG SSE DOWN THE LAKE LATE                  
TONIGHT... LIKELY AS A RESULT OF THIS LAND/LAKE WIND/CONVERGENCE                
INTERACTION. GOING FCST OF UP TO 6" OVERNIGHT IN ERN BERRIEN/CASS               
WITH LESSER AMOUNTS TO THE SE SEEMS REASONABLE AND NO CHANGES TO                
AMOUNTS/HEADLINES MADE ATTM. ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL IN THE                         
WARNING/ADVISORY AREA AROUND AN INCH EXPECTED SUNDAY BEFORE SNOW                
SHOWERS TAPER END. LITTLE CHANGE MADE TO HIGHS FOR SUNDAY WHICH ARE             
AOB ALL 12Z MOS...BUT SEEM REASONABLE IF NOT A TOUCH TOO WARM BASED             
ON FCST -15C H85 TEMPS AND RECENT MOS WARM BIAS IN SIMILAR SITUATION            
ON FRI.                                                                         
SHRTWV TOPPING RIDGE OVER PAC NW THIS AFTN IS EXPECTED TO DROP SE               
INTO BACKSIDE OF LONGWAVE TROF OVER ERN US. THIS SYSTEM EXPECTED                
TO APPROACH OUR AREA SUNDAY NIGHT COINCIDING WITH WAA ON BACKSIDE               
OF SFC RIDGE RESULTING IN DECENT MID LEVEL ISENT LIFT WITH 2G/KG                
MIXING RATIO ON 290K ISENT SFC AROUND 700MB. LOW LEVELS REMAIN                  
RATHER DRY THROUGH THIS PD SO STILL SOME DOUBT IF THIS WAA SNOW                 
WILL FALL THIS FAR SOUTH...BUT DID BUMP UP POPS OVER ALL BUT SRN                
PORTION OF THE CWA. ALTHOUGH SKIES SHOULD BE MOSTLY CLOUDY SUNDAY               
NIGHT... LIGHT WINDS IN THE EVE WITH FRESH SNOW COVER AND RATHER                
DRY LOW LEVELS...ALONG WITH PRECEEDING COOLER DAY THAN FCST BY                  
MOS...ALL SUGGEST GOING LOWS IN TEENS AND BLO ALL 12Z MOS                       
GUIDANCE ARE REASONABLE AND NO CHANGES MADE.                                    
LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...                                        
EXTENDED PERIOD CONTINUES WITH AN ACTIVE BEGINNING AS MONDAY SEES               
WEAKENING CLIPPER WASH OUT AS IT APPROACHES THE AREA WITH ASSOCIATED            
AREA OF MOISTURE HEADING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES.  UPR LOW OVER                 
SOUTHWEST OPENS AND PHASES WITH DEEPENING TROUGH OVER MOUNTAIN WEST             
AND SHIFTS EAST WITH SFC LOW EJECTING THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY.                  
WHILE DIFFERENCES EXITS IN SPEED AND INTENSITY OF THE LOW THE                   
OPERATIONAL MODELS ARE TRENDING TOWARDS A BETTER CONSENSUS ON A                 
WARMER SOLUTION WITH SFC LOW TRACKING ACROSS INDIANA.  FOLLOWED A               
GFS/ECMWF BLEND FOR THIS SYSTEM WHILE NOTING THAT THE ENTIRE SUITE              
OF GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS IS SUBSTANTIALLY FURTHER SE WITH THIS SYSTEM            
PUTTING CWA IN A DECIDEDLY COLDER ENVIRONMENT.                                  
BASED ON A COMPROMISE BETWEEN OP GFS/ECMWF...THICKNESS FIELDS AND               
THERMAL PROFILES SUGGEST SNOW MONDAY NIGHT IN AN AREA OF                        
WAA/ISENTROPIC LIFT INDICATED BY BRISK 40 KT FLOW ALONG MOIST 295K              
SFC. PROFILES DO NOT CURRENTLY SUGGEST A SUBSTANTIAL WINDOW FOR                 
FREEZING RAIN BUT WILL NEED TO MONITOR WITH TIME AS SCENARIO OF                 
WAA ALOFT OVER TRAPPED COLD AIR BELOW COULD YET PRODUCE A PERIOD                
WITH FZRA HAZARD. AS LOW DEEPENS AND MOVES NE ALONG BAROCLINIC                  
ZONE COLUMN WARMS THROUGHOUT AND THERE IS CONSIDERABLE OPERATIONAL              
MODEL EVIDENCE TO SUGGEST CHANGING GRIDS OVER TO AN ALL RAIN                    
TUESDAY. MODEL GUIDANCE NOW REACHING NEAR/ABV 40 FOR TUESDAY HIGHS              
AND BUFR SOUNDINGS SHOWING ABV FZ PROFILE THROUGH A SIGNIFICANT                 
LAYER BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. ALSO..GFS/EC NOW IN BASIC AGREEMENT                 
WITH PTYPE SCENARIO...AND THE OP GFS HAS NUDGED FURTHER                         
NORTH/WARMER WITH 3 SUCCESSIVE RUNS. HOWEVER..THE FACT THAT IT IS               
AN OUTLIER AMONG ITS OWN ENSEMBLE MEMBERS WARRANTS HOLDING ON TO                
CHC SNOW MENTION TUESDAY ALONG WITH LIKELY RAIN FOR THE TIME                    
BEING. ECMWF IS FASTER/SHALLOWER WITH SFC LOW BUT HAS TRENDED                   
TOWARDS GFS WITH 12Z RUN AND CURRENT WINDOW OF LIKELY POPS IS                   
SLANTED TOWARDS SLOWER/DEEPER GFS.                                              
BEHIND SYSTEM COLDER AIR ONCE AGAIN FILTERS INTO THE CWA CHANGING               
EVERYONE BACK OVER TO A PD OF SNOW SHOWERS AS SFC LOW DEPARTS AND               
RETURNING TEMPS BACK BELOW NORMAL BY THE END OF THE WEEK. COLD H85              
TEMPS AND NW FLOW ONCE AGAIN SIGNAL A CHANCE OF LAKE EFFECT AND HAVE            
CONSERVATIVELY ADDED CHC POPS IN BERRIEN COUNTY.  MODELS THEN BRING             
IN ANOTHER WAVE AT THE END OF THE EXTENDED WITH SIGNIFICANT TIMING              
DIFFERENCES AND LARGE CONTRASTS IN DEPICTION OF UPPER LEVEL FLOW                
OVER NOAM. HAVE LEFT DAY 7 DRY FOR NOW TO LET THINGS SORT OUT                   
WITH ANOTHER MODEL CYCLE.                                                       
&&                                                                              
.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
IN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR                    
     INZ004>008-016-017.                                                        
MI...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR MIZ077-078.           
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR MIZ079-            
     080.                                                                       
OH...NONE.                                                                      
LM...GALE WARNING UNTIL 3 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR LMZ043-046.             
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHORT TERM...TAYLOR                                                             
LONG TERM...LUDINGTON                                                           
UPDATE...HOLSTEN                                                                
AVIATION...JC                                                                   
</pre> in                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA                                          
348 AM CST SUN DEC 7 2008                                                       
.SHORT TERM /TODAY/...                                                          
SFC RIDGE AXIS BEGINNING TO SHIFT EAST OF THE AREA...WITH HIGH                  
CLOUDS SPREADING EASTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL CWA AHEAD OF THE WARM                
FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE NEXT WAVE DIVING SOUTHEAST FROM THE                   
CANADIAN ROCKIES. BEST LIFT WITH THIS WAVE AS IT DIVES SOUTHEASTWARD            
THROUGH SRN MN/NRN IA THIS MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON WILL MAINLY              
BE NORTH OF HWY 20. GFS/NAM/RUC IN DISAGREEMENT REGARDING AMOUNT OF             
MOISTURE/QPF WITH THE NAM/RUC ADVERTISING ONLY A FEW HUNDREDTHS                 
ACROSS THE NORTHERN CWA VERSUS JUST OVER A TENTH WITH THE GFS.                  
SOUNDINGS INDICATING BRIEF SATURATION...WITH PROBABLY AROUND A FEW              
HOURS OF LIGHT SNOW AT MOST LOCATIONS NORTH OF I-80. OTHERWISE MAYBE            
ONLY A BRIEF SNOW SHOWER OR FLURRIES EXPECTED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN               
CWA. PREVIOUS FORECAST MORE IN LINE WITH THE GFS...BUT LOOKING AT               
TRENDS UPSTREAM FEEL THE GFS MAY BE A BIT OVERDONE. THEREFORE HAVE              
TRENDED GRIDS SLIGHTLY TOWARD THE NAM/RUC BY LOWERING POPS ACROSS               
THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA AND CUTTING THE QPF DOWN BY 30 TO 40               
PERCENT. COULD STILL SEE AROUND AN INCH ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER                
COUNTIES...TAPERING TO A FEW TENTHS AROUND HWY 30 TO AROUND A TRACE             
FURTHER SOUTH. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS DID SHOW A BRIEF PERIOD OF FZDZ AS              
THE SNOW TAPERED OFF AND SATURATION WAS LOST ALOFT. HOWEVER THIS WAS            
QUITE BRIEF ONLY AROUND AN HOUR OR SO...SO LEFT PRECIP TYPE ALL SNOW            
FOR NOW.                                                                        
.LONG TERM /TONIGHT-SATURDAY/...                                                
WILL HAVE ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE TRANSLATING OVER SOUTHERN IOWA                 
TONIGHT WITH BAND OF WARM ADVECTION AND MID LEVEL FRONTOGENETICAL               
FORCING. MODELS DIFFER ON AREA THAT RECIEVES LIGHT PRECIP...SO                  
WENT WITH ONLY LOW CHANCES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OR SO.                      
OTHERWISE MAIN CONCERN FOR THIS FORECAST PACKAGE IS SIGNIFICANT                 
SYSTEM FOR MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. THE ECMWF/UKMET/CANADIAN                   
SOLUTIONS ARE PREFERRED FOR THIS PERIOD GIVEN THEIR CONSISTENCY.                
UNFORTUNATELY THE NAM/SREF AND TO A CERTAIN EXTENT THE GFS/GEFS                 
ARE NOT EXACTLY GOING THE SAME DIRECTION...SO CONFIDENCE IS NOT AS              
HIGH AS I`D LIKE. HOWEVER...SINCE OUR FORECAST IS LEANING STRONGLY              
TO THE FIRST SET OF MODELS MENTIONED ABOVE...WILL NEED TO ISSUE A               
WINTER STORM WATCH FOR A STRIP OF COUNTIES SW TO NE THROUGH                     
CENTRAL IOWA. EVEN AFTER TAKING A BLEND OF THE GFS/HPC/ECMWF QPF                
FOR THIS PERIOD...STILL CAME OUT WITH 4 TO 8 INCHES OF SNOW FOR                 
MUCH OF OUR AREA. THAT SEEMS A BIT MUCH FOR THE UNCERTAINTY THAT                
STILL EXISTS...BUT I AM IN COLLABORATION WITH NEIGHBORS.                        
AS LOW PRESSURE ORGANIZES IN THE SOUTHERN PLAINS MONDAY...FRONTOGENETICAL       
FORCES AND ISENTROPIC LIFT BEGIN OVER IOWA...AND MAY YIELD LIGHT                
PRECIP. SOUTHERN IOWA SHOULD BE ABOVE FREEZING DURING THE DAY                   
MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. SO AS THE SYSTEM APPROACHES...RAIN WILL               
BE THE DOMINATE P-TYPE ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-80. HOWEVER...AS THE                
LOW INTENSIFIES AND WRAPS IN THE COLDER AIR TO THE NORTH...ALONG                
WITH DYNAMIC PROCESSES IN THE TROWAL AND DEFORMATION ZONE TO THE                
NORTH OF SFC LOW TRACK...PRECIP SHOULD TRANSITION TO ALL SNOW                   
MONDAY NIGHT NW TO SE. SOUNDINGS DON`T OFFER MUCH CHANCE FOR                    
ANYTHING OTHER THAN RAIN OR SNOW. HOWEVER...THERE IS STILL A                    
POSSIBILITY OF A LITTLE FREEZING RAIN IF COLDER SFC AIR WORKS ITS               
WAY IN BEFORE THE UPPER LEVELS COOL ENOUGH. AT THIS TIME THOUGH                 
SOUNDINGS SUPPORT MORE OF A RAIN TO SNOW TRANSITION WHERE IT                    
STARTS AS RAIN. AM USING SNOW RATIOS AT OR BELOW CLIMO FOR                      
NOW...GIVEN UNCERTAINTIES OF WHERE ANY HEAVIER BANDED SNOW MAY SET              
UP.                                                                             
EVEN IF SNOWFALL AMOUNTS DO NOT REACH WARNING CRITERIA ALONE...THE              
WIND WILL BE INCREASING ENOUGH TO WARRANT A WINTER STORM WATCH.                 
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE SUSTAINED BETWEEN 20 AND 30 MPH WITH                   
GUSTS POTENTIALLY CLOSE TO 35 OR 40 MPH AT TIMES. AND THIS BRINGS               
US DANGEROUSLY CLOSE TO BLIZZARD CONDITIONS. BUT...GIVEN SOME                   
UNCERTAINTY THERE...WE WILL JUST MENTION THE WIND AND BLOWING SNOW              
POTENTIAL IN THE WINTER STORM WATCH. ALSO...BEING THE FIRST WINTER              
STORM THREAT OF THE SEASON...WE WILL LOWER OUR THRESHOLD A BIT.                 
THE SNOW SHOULD END TUESDAY EVENING IF NOT BEFORE...BUT CONTINUE                
TO BLOW AROUND WELL INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. AN ACTIVE PATTERN DOES NOT              
SLOW DOWN...WITH A COUPLE OF CLIPPER SYSTEMS FOR LATE IN THE                    
WEEK...EACH WITH RESPECTABLE CHANCES FOR LIGHT SNOW IN OUR AREA.                
TEMPS WERE ADJUSTED DOWNWARD FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK GIVEN                   
TREND IN THE MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE.                                             
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...07/06Z                                                              
WARM ADVECTION SETTING IN QUICKLY WEST WITH WINDS BECOMING SSE BY               
MORNING. ZONE OF STRONGER THETAE ADVECTION OVER THE CENTRAL DAKOTAS             
ALREADY LOWERING CIGS TO MVFR LEVELS AND WILL MOVE EAST OVERNIGHT.              
CLOUDS NOW ENTERING WESTERN IA WITH CEILINGS LOWERING.  MODEST MID              
LEVEL LIFT WILL CAUSE A BAND OF LIGHT SNOW TO DEVELOP AND TRACK                 
ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL WITH UP TO 1 TO 2 INCHES OF SNOW POSSIBLE              
SUNDAY. EXPECT MVFR CIGS MAINLY WITH VSBYS OF GENERAL 3-5SM CAT.                
SMALL CHANCE THAT IFR CIGS MAY BRIEFLY ACCOMPANY THE HEAVIER                    
SNOWFALL RATES BETWEEN 15Z AND 19Z NORTH SECTIONS. CIGS GRADUALLY               
LIFTING TOWARD 00Z FROM WEST TO EAST. FARTHER SOUTH...IMPACT NOT AS             
GREAT WITH KOTM SEEING LEAST IMPACT FROM THE WARM FRONTAL PRECIP                
THAT WILL BE ENTERING THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE TAF FORECAST AREA              
BY 12Z SUNDAY. AFT 08/00Z WILL SEE LOW LEVELS DRY OUT A BIT AND                 
ALLOW FOR VFR CIGS TO RETURN BRIEFLY BEFORE NEXT SYSTEM IMPACTS THE             
REGION. /REV                                                                    
&&                                                                              
.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM MONDAY EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON                
FOR ADAIR-ADAMS-AUDUBON-BLACK HAWK-BOONE-BREMER-BUTLER-CALHOUN-                 
CARROLL-CASS-CERRO GORDO-CLARKE-DALLAS-FRANKLIN-GREENE-GRUNDY-                  
GUTHRIE-HAMILTON-HARDIN-JASPER-MADISON-MARSHALL-POLK-POWESHIEK-                 
RINGGOLD-STORY-TAMA-TAYLOR-UNION-WARREN-WEBSTER-WRIGHT.                         
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHORT TERM...ALBRECHT                                                           
LONG TERM...MOYER                                                               
AVIATION...REV                                                                  
</pre> ia                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS                                            
246 AM MST SUN DEC 7 2008                                                       
.DISCUSSION...NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BECOME ZONAL TONIGHT AS SHORTWAVE             
ENERGY DIGS SOUTH ACROSS WESTERN UTAH. FLOW THEN BECOMES SOUTHWEST              
ON MONDAY AS THE TROUGH MOVES EAST OF THE ROCKIES. FLOW IS NORTHWEST            
ON TUESDAY. A SURFACE TROUGH OVER EASTERN COLORADO TODAY WILL MOVE              
INTO THE OKLAHOMA/TEXAS PANHANDLE REGION TONIGHT/MONDAY. HIGH                   
PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO NORTHWEST KANSAS MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH                  
TUESDAY.                                                                        
THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUES ARE PRECIPITATION TYPE AND WIND.                       
TIMING OF THE EVENT LOOKS ON TRACK WITH UPWARD VERTICAL VELOCITIES              
INDICATED MONDAY AFTERNOON...CONTINUING MONDAY NIGHT AND ENDING                 
AROUND 12Z TUESDAY. THE CURRENT FORECAST KEEPS THE EVENT ABOUT 6                
HOURS PAST THIS TIME. 1000-500MB THICKNESSES FROM THE GFS/NAM                   
SUGGEST THAT PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE LIQUID THROUGH MOST OF MONDAY              
AFTERNOON EXCEPT IN THE NORTHWEST ZONES. BY MONDAY EVENING                      
PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE ALL SNOW OVER THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE                 
FORECAST AREA WITH ONLY THE SOUTHEAST ZONES HAVING A MIX OF                     
RAIN/SNOW. THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA SHOULD HAVE ALL SNOW BY 06Z                 
TUESDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE EVENT. THE NEXT ISSUE IS WIND WHICH              
THE RUC SHOWS TO BE A SIGNIFICANT CONCERN WITH THIS EVENT. BY 09Z               
TUESDAY SURFACE WIND IS PROGGED TO BE SUSTAINED AT GREATER THAN                 
30KTS AND WIND GUSTS GREATER THAN 40KTS. THIS WILL CAUSE SIGNIFICANT            
BLOWING AND DRIFTING OF ANY SNOW. MOST OF THE SNOW SHOULD END BY 12Z            
TUESDAY BUT THIS STRONG WIND SHOULD LAST WELL INTO TUESDAY                      
AFTERNOON. CURRENT FORECAST ALREADY HAS AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW FOR               
THIS TIME PERIOD. A WINTER HIGHLIGHT MAY BE NEEDED IF MODELS                    
CONTINUE TO SHOW THIS MUCH WIND. FOR NOW PLAN TO CONTINUE WORDING IN            
THE HWO FOR THIS POTENTIAL. SNOWFALL AMOUNTS STILL LOOK LIKE 1 TO 3             
INCHES WITH HEAVIEST AMOUNTS OVER THE CENTRAL AND EAST ZONES.                   
TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE UNSEASONABLY WARM. GUIDANCE SHOWING                  
READINGS ABOUT 20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. FOLLOWED COOLER GUIDANCE                
BASED ON UNCERTAINTY WITH AMOUNT OF CLOUDS. COLD FRONT WILL COME                
THROUGH TONIGHT. MAX TEMPERATURES WILL REACH INTO THE LOWER 40S                 
MONDAY AND IN THE UPPER 30S TUESDAY. MIN TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO            
THE MID 20S TONIGHT AND AROUND 20 MONDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHTS.                    
FS                                                                              
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
426 PM MST SAT DEC 6 2008                                                       
FOR SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING...VFR CONDITIONS WILL               
PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD FOR BOTH KGLD AND KMCK. BY 05Z                
OR 06Z...LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL SET UP FROM THE SOUTHWEST AT 8           
TO 10 KTS UNDER SCT-BKN MID LEVEL CLOUDS. BY ABOUT 16Z...WINDS                  
WILL BE FROM THE NORTHWEST AT AROUND 7 KTS UNDER SCT-BKN HIGH                   
LEVEL CLOUDS WITH WINDS BECOMING MORE VARIABLE BY THE END OF THE                
TAF PERIOD.                                                                     
BLM                                                                             
&&                                                                              
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
KS...NONE.                                                                      
NE...NONE.                                                                      
CO...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
WFO GOODLAND                                                                    
</pre> ks                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY                                             
125 AM EST SUN DEC 7 2008                                                       
.SHORT TERM.../THE REST OF TONIGHT/                                             
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE            
AREA. THESE ARE ALL OUT AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT. MUCH OF            
THESE WILL BE WINDING DOWN OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. THE NEXT              
BATCH OF PRECIP THAT WILL BE AFFECTING OUR AREA IS OVER INDIANA. THIS           
IS POST FRONTAL...AND ASSOCIATED WITH A SUBTLE H5 VORT MAX...VISIBLE            
ON THE RUC13 AND WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. VISIBILITIES IN THIS PRECIP ARE           
ALL 3 TO 5 MILES ATTM...BUT AM CONCERNED THIS COULD BE ENHANCED JUST            
A LITTLE AS IT MOVES OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF EASTERN KENTUCKY. FOR           
THIS REASON...INCREASED POPS TONIGHT AND MENTIONED NUMEROUS LIGHT               
SNOW SHOWERS AS OPPOSED TO FLURRIES FOR MUCH OF OUR AREA. TAPERED               
POPS DOWN RAPIDLY IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CWA...WHERE THEY REMAIN IN THE            
LEAST FAVORABLE MOISTURE FOR SIGNIFICANT SHSN COVERAGE. FROPA SHOULD            
OCCUR WITHIN A COUPLE HOURS OF MIDNIGHT ACROSS THE CWA. MEAN RH                 
DECREASES...BUT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LINGERS IN THE SNOW GROWTH REGION.           
STILL THINK ANY ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE LESS THAN A HALF INCH...WITH              
AROUND A HALF INCH POSSIBLE IN FAR SOUTHEAST KENTUCKY. BEST UPSLOPE             
FLOW WILL NOT LIKELY OCCUR UNTIL 08 OR 09Z AS WINDS SHIFT AROUND TO             
THE NORTHWEST. BY THEN...MOISTURE SHOULD BE BEGINNING TO DECREASE.              
LOW TEMPS LOOKED GOOD...SO NO MAJOR ADJUSTMENTS THERE. DID TWEAK THE            
HOURLY TEMPS...AS TEMPS RANGE FROM THE UPPER 20S TO THE MID 30S                 
ACROSS OUR CWA JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THESE WILL DROP OFF AFTER               
FROPA. STILL THE MAJOR TRAVEL CONCERN OVERNIGHT IS REFREEZING WATER             
ON ROADWAYS. WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT THIS IN SPECIAL WEATHER                 
STATEMENTS...WEB HEADLINES...AND IN THE HWO. UPDATED FORECAST                   
PRODUCTS ARE ALREADY OUT.                                                       
THE PREVIOUS SHORT TERM FORECAST DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...                          
/TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/                                                  
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS IN PLACE OVER MUCH OF THE EASTERN                      
CONUS...WITH A RELATIVELY POTENT SW/V CURRENTLY WORKING THROUGH THE             
OH VALLEY. THE SFC AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS WORKING INTO MI AND                  
ONTARIO...WITH THE COLD FRONT TRAILING SOUTH INTO THE OH VALLEY. THE            
EARLIER BAND OF LIGHT SNOW HAS GENERALLY MOVED EAST OF THE AREA WITH            
SOME WARMER AND DRIER AIR ATTEMPTING TO ADVECT IN IN THE WARM SECTOR.           
A FEW ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS WERE OVER INDIANA AND ILLINOIS IN ADVANCE           
OF THE FRONT.                                                                   
THE COLD FRONT WILL WORK ACROSS WESTERN AND INTO CENTRAL KY THIS                
EVENING AND THEN CROSS THE JKL CWA GENERALLY BETWEEN 0Z AND 4Z. IN              
ADDITION AS THE SW/V MOVES THROUGH THE OH VALLEY...THE LAPSE RATES              
WILL INCREASE AND THERE SHOULD BE REDEVELOPMENT OF SNOW SHOWERS                 
DURING THE EVENING HOURS OVER THE NE PART OF THE CWA AND ALONG THE VA           
BORDER AREA THIS MORNING. WENT WITH SCATTERED POPS OVER MUCH OF THE             
CWA...WITH SLIGHT CHANCE IN THE SW AND LIKELY NEAR THE VA BORDER.               
ALTHOUGH QPF WILL BE VERY MINIMAL...A DUSTING TO ONE HALF OF AN INCH            
OF SNOW CANNOT BE RULED OUT FROM THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT                
HOURS GIVEN HIGH SNOW TO LIQUID RATIOS. THE SUBSIDENCE INVERSION                
WILL LOWER AND THE BL IS EXPECTED TO DRY OUT TOWARD 12Z SUN...SO WE             
WENT WITH ONLY ISOLATED FLURRIES AND SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE SE ON SUN.           
AS FAR AS TEMPS...WITH A COLDER START THAN WAS EXPECTED                         
EARLIER...OPTED TO LOWER MIN T TONIGHT.                                         
8H TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN COLD FOR MUCH OF TOMORROW...EVEN AS             
HEIGHTS BEGIN TO INCREASE AND SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE TN              
AND OH VALLEYS. BY THE END OF THE DAY -4C IS FORECAST IN THE                    
SW...WITH COLDER...-10 OR -11C IN THE EAST. WITH THAT IN                        
MIND...OPTED TO LEAN TOWARD THE COLDER END OF MOS GUIDANCE.                     
DEPENDING ON THE EXACT TIMING OUT OF THE EXPECTED CU AND SC...TEMPS             
COULD END UP EVEN COLDER THAN THAT...ESPECIALLY SINCE THERE SHOULD              
BE SOME CIRRUS FROM TIME TO TIME IN NW FLOW ALOFT. HOWEVER...MUCH OF            
THE AREA WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH THE FREEZING MARK. HIGH PRESSURE                
WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT EAST ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS AND REACH THE EAST             
COAST PIEDMONT REGION BY EARLY MON. MID AND HIGH CLOUDS LATE MAY                
LIMIT THE TEMP FALL...BUT WITH DRIER DEWPOINTS IN THE TEENS EXPECTED            
BY LATE ON SUN AND EXPECTED EARLY DECOUPLING DUE TO CLEARING                    
SKIES...KEPT THE SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN GUIDANCE TEMPS FOR VALLEYS ON             
SUN NIGHT. SOUTHERLY FLOW ON THE RIDGES SHOULD LEAD TO A MODERATE               
RIDGE/VALLEY SPLIT.                                                             
MON APPEARS TO BE A TRANSITION DAY AS WEAK UPPER RIDGING WORKS                  
ACROSS THE AREA...WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES. GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED                
WARMER OVERALL AND UPPED MAX T FOR MON. HOWEVER...TWO                           
SHORTWAVES...ONE OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND ANOTHER OVER THE                 
SOUTHERN ROCKIES WILL BEGIN TO CARVE OUT A PLAINS TROUGH. LEE                   
CYCLOGENESIS SHOULD TAKE PLACE LATER IN THE PERIOD...WITH AN                    
INCREASING LOW LEVEL JET LATE ON TUE NIGHT AS WELL AS INCREASING                
PRESS GRADIENT. ISENTROPIC LIFT SHOULD PRODUCE CLOUDS AT THE VERY               
LEAST...WITH BETTER LIFT AND ASSOCIATED PRECIP LIKELY REMAINING WEST            
AND NORTH OF THE AREA.                                                          
.LONG TERM.../TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/                                         
THE LONG RANGE MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH REGARDS TO NEXT              
WEEKS WEATHER. A FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY ON TUESDAY.             
PRECIPITATION AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL LIKELY BE IN THE FORM OF                  
RAIN...AS BOTH GFS MODELS SOUNDINGS AND TIME HEIGHT CROSS SECTIONS              
ARE KEEPING TEMPERATURES ABOVE FREEZING FOR THE ENTIRE DAY. IT                  
APPEARS AT THIS TIME THAT THE SUB FREEZING AIR WILL NOT MAKES ITS WAY           
INTO THE REGION UNTIL AFTER THE FRONT PASSES BY AND WINDS SHIFT TO              
THE WEST AND NORTHWEST. WITH THAT IT MIND...IT LOOKS LIKE THERE WILL            
BE A PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS BEGINNING AT 7Z WEDNESDAY AND                 
LASTING THROUGH 15 OR 16Z ON WEDNESDAY. LITTLE IF ANY SNOW                      
ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED. IT IS LOOKING MORE AND MORE LIKE NEXT WEEKS           
SYSTEM WILL BRING GOOD SOAKING RAINS TO THE FORECAST AREA. THE LATEST           
GFS MODEL HAS A 60-70KT LOW LEVEL JET MOVING ACROSS KENTUCKY TUESDAY            
AFTERNOON AND NIGHT...WHICH WILL ACT TO REALLY ENHANCE THE RAINFALL             
AHEAD OF THE FRONT. BY THE TIME ENOUGH COLD AIR MAKES IT INTO THE               
AREA FOR SNOW TO FORM...THE BEST JET DYNAMICS WILL BE WELL EAST OF              
THE AREA.                                                                       
TEMPERATURES WERE A MAJOR CHALLENGE FOR NEXT WEEK AS ALL OF THE                 
MODEL DATA IS HAVING A VERY DIFFICULT TIME COMING INTO ANY SORT OF              
AGREEMENT WITH REGARD TO HOW WARM OR COLD IT IS GOING TO BE. MODEL              
SOUNDINGS ARE PAINTING A PICTURE OF VERY COLD DAYTIME HIGHS NEAR                
FREEZING ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...WHILE AT THE SAME TIME THE LATEST             
MEXMOS HAS HIGH TEMPERATURES AROUND 40 ON THU AND FRI...WITH HPC                
COMING IN WITH TEMPS IN THE UPPER 40S FOR THU AND AROUND 40 ON                  
FRIDAY. WHAT I ULTIMATELY DECIDED TO DO WAS ADJUST TEMPERATURES DOWN            
A BIT ACROSS THE BOARD WITH THE EXCEPTION OF TUESDAY                            
AFTERNOON...WHERE I ADJUSTED TEMPS UP A BIT MORE TOWARD THE VERY                
WARM MEXMOS AND HPC NUMBERS AND TO MATCH UP WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES            
BETTER. A FEW ADJUSTMENTS WERE ALSO MADE TO SKY COVER TO ACCOUNT FOR            
TIMING CHANGES MADE TO NEXT WEEKS FRONTAL PASSAGE. DEWPOINTS ARE                
ALSO OUT OF SORTS WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES FOR LATE NEXT WEEK...SO              
ADJUSTMENTS WERE NEEDED THERE AS WELL.                                          
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION.../06Z TO 06Z/...UPDATED                                              
BANDS OF SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ACCOMPANYING A           
REINFORCING COLD FRONT. EXPECT PREDOMINANT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH               
10Z WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW AROUND AS DEPICTED BY THE VCSH IN THE TAFS.            
PUT A TEMPO INTO THE TAFS FROM 07 THROUGH 11Z FOR MVFR CONDITIONS...            
BOTH VIS AND CIG...WITH THE SNOW SHOWERS. THE LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS WILL           
DIMINISH TO JUST FLURRIES TOWARD DAWN WITH CIGS DISAPPEARING BY NOON.           
FOLLOWING THE FRONT...NOW EAST OF THE TAF SITES...THE WINDS HAVE                
SHIFTED TO THE NORTHWEST WITH AN ELEMENT OF GUSTINESS. EXPECT THESE             
NORTHWEST WINDS TO SETTLE DOWN TOWARD DAWN AND BECOME RATHER LIGHT              
DURING THE DAY SUNDAY.                                                          
&&                                                                              
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                        
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHORT TERM...JP/WJM                                                             
LONG TERM....AR                                                                 
AVIATION...GREIF                                                                
</pre> ky                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
420 AM EST SUN DEC 7 2008                                                       
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
COLD UPPER TROUGH WITH H85 TEMPS -15C TO -20C REMAINS IN PLACE FM               
HUDSON BAY INTO THE UPR GREAT LAKES. PRIMARY COLD FRONT IS MOVING               
INTO THE LWR GREAT LAKES AND DIVING INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. NW                
FLOW AND THE COLD TEMPS BEHIND THE FRONT IS PRODUCING MOSTLY                    
MULTIPLE LK EFFECT SNOW BANDS. IR SATELLITE AND RADAR INDICATES                 
HEAVIEST SNOW SHOWERS INTO ALGER COUNTY AND NRN DELTA COUNTY. THIS              
BAND IS STRONGEST DUE TO PRECONDITIONED FLOW OFF LK NIPEGON AND ALSO            
SINCE THE TRAJECTORIES ARE CROSSING THE LONGEST AVIALIABLE FETCH                
ACROSS LK SUPERIOR. MEANWHILE...DRY AIR AND INVERSION BLO H9                    
ASSOCIATED WITH INCOMING SFC RIDGE AND AS SEEN ON 00Z INL/WPL                   
SOUNDINGS...IS LIMITING EXTENT OF LK EFFECT OVR WRN CWA.                        
&&                                                                              
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
ALTHOUGH WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED...LK EFFECT STILL AN ISSUE TODAY AS              
SFC-925MB WINDS STAY NW. EFFECTS OF THE DRY AIR/SUBSIDENCE SEEN                 
UPSTREAM WILL BE OFFSET FOR SNOW SHOWERS EAST OF MARQUETTE AS                   
LOW-LEVEL TRAJECTORIES CROSS LK SUPERIOR THE LONGEST. INVERSION                 
HEIGHT BTWN 5-7KFT AND IDEAL TEMPS WITHIN CLOUD LAYER FOR DENDRETIC             
SNOW GROWTH ENSURES THAT LK EFFECT WILL BE SUFFICIENT AT PRODUCING              
ACCUMS DESPITE NEGATIVE LARGE SCALE FACTORS. BY FAR BEST SNOW WILL              
BE IN SNOWBAND PRECONDITIONED BY LK NIPEGON. MAJORITY OF HIGH RES               
GUIDANCE...NAM/REG CANADIAN/RUC13/LOCAL WRF POINT TO HEAVIEST SNOW              
TO REMAIN IN ALGER/NRN SCHOOLCRAFT AREAS. KEPT WINTER STORM WARNING             
FOR THESE TWO ZONES GIVEN THAT STRONG BAND IS STILL OUT THERE AND               
SNOWFALL RATES UP TO 1"/HR ARE STILL POSSIBLE. OTHERWISE...CANX REST            
OF THE GOING HEADLINES. 925MB WIND FIELD BECOMES DISORGANIZED AFT               
21Z TODAY...AND BY THAT TIME SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD DIMINISH/LIFT                  
OFFSHORE. ELSEWHERE...AS WINDS BACK WITH RIDGE THROUGH HERE...THERE             
COULD BE SOME SUNSHINE. TEMPS WILL REMAIN CHILLY THOUGH WITH MAINLY             
TEENS EXPECTED.                                                                 
SHEARED OUT UPPER WAVE WITH SWATH OF DEEP MOISTURE SWINGS ACROSS UPR            
LAKES. GFS/NAM/LOCAL WRF SIMILAR IN HANDLING THE SYSTEM. ISENTROPIC             
LIFT ON 280K SFC...ROUGHLY 800-700MB...SHOWS STRONGEST LIFT OCCURING            
ALONG SW BORDER INTO LK MICHIGAN. KEPT HIGHEST POPS CLOSER TO WI                
BORDER...WITH JUST CHANCE POPS CLOSER TO LK SUPERIOR AS SW LOW-LEVEL            
FLOW MAINLY DOWNSLOPES. UP TO AN INCH OF SNOW NEAR THE WI BORDER.               
MAIN ISSUE WILL BE IN SE CWA NEAR LK MICHIGAN. 925MB WINDS BECOME               
VERY FAVORABLE FOR LK EFFECT OFF LK MICHIGAN INTO SRN SCHOOLCRAFT               
INTO SRN PORTION OF LUCE COUNTY AFT MIDNIGHT AND INTO MONDAY. H85               
TEMPS -13C WITH DEEP MOISTURE ADDED FM THE SYSTEM MOVING IN FM THE              
WEST YIELD MORE THAN SUFFICIENT OVER WATER INSTABILITY ALTHOUGH                 
EXACT AREA OF HEAVIEST SNOW IS UNCERTAIN. SINCE THE HIGH PRESSURE               
RIDGE LINGERS OVR LWR MICHIGAN AND ONTARIO...INTERACTING LAND                   
BREEZES ENHANCE LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE. HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS FCST A            
DOMINANT BAND OVR FAR SE CWA...BUT VARY ON EXACT PLACEMENT. WILL SAY            
THAT THE RUC13 SHOWING A STRONG LAND BREEZE EMERGING FM LWR MI...AND            
SETTING UP THE BAND AS FAR WEST AS DELTA COUNTY WAS NOT PREFERRED AS            
SWRLY 925MB WINDS SHOULD PIN THE LAND BREEZE CLOSER TO THE LWR MI               
SHORE. IN ANY EVENT...COULD SEE WARNING CRITERIA SNOWFALL OVR FAR SE            
CWA FM THIS BAND OF LK EFFECT SO ISSUED A LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH FOR            
LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MOST OF MONDAY FOR SOUTHERN SCHOOLCRAFT INTO               
LUCE.                                                                           
OUTSIDE OF LK EFFECT OFF LK MICHIGAN...MONDAY FEATURES LGT SNOW                 
MAINLY AFFECTING THE WI BORDER AREAS DUE TO UPPER LEVEL JET FORCING             
AND PERSISTENT ISENTROPIC ASCENT ON 280K SFC. NW LOW-LEVEL WINDS AND            
H85 TEMPS BLO -10C COULD ALSO PRODUCE LGT LK EFFECT OVR NW UPR MI.              
NEXT ISSUE IS LOW PRESSURE EMERGING FM THE PLAINS LATER TUE. ECMWF              
WAS MOST EMPHATIC WITH THIS SYSTEM LAST COUPLE DAYS...AND OTHER                 
GUIDANCE NOW LOOKS LIKE IT IS TRENDING THIS WAY. ECMWF IDEA WOULD               
BRUSH FAR SOUTH CENTRAL...BASICALLY SRN MNM COUNTY...WITH WIDESPREAD            
SNOW LATE MON NIGHT THROUGH TUE NIGHT. PRIMARY SYSTEM SNOW SHOULD               
STAY SOUTH OF CWA...BUT ADVY MAY BE NEEDED IN THE SCNTRL. NRLY FLOW             
OVR LK SUPERIOR WITH COOLING WILL LEAD TO LK EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS                
INCREASING IN THE TUE/WED PERIOD.                                               
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION (FOR THE 06Z TAF ISSUANCE)...                                         
MULTI-PARALLEL BAND LAKE EFFECT SNOW WINDING DOWN FROM THE WEST THIS            
EVENING. VERY DRY AIR UPSTREAM GREATLY DIMINISHING LES OVER WRN LAKE            
SUPERIOR THIS EVENING. HAVE DECIDED TO GO WITH VFR VBSY AT KCMX                 
THROUGH THE PERIOD BUT WILL KEEP MVFR CIGS UNTIL WINDS BACK SW BY               
20Z SUN. MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN LIGHT SNOW SHOULD RETURN BY LATE SUN                
EVENING AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM MOVING IN FROM THE NRN PLAINS.                 
WINDS BACKING NW AT KSAW WILL SHIFT SIGNIFICANT LES BANDS EAST                  
OVERNIGHT WITH VFR VSBYS EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. WINDS             
BACKING W LATE TONIGHT WILL BREAK UP MVFR CIGS AND KEEP SKIES VFR               
INTO SUN EVENING. THERE IS ANOTHER CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW LATE SUN                
EVENING WHICH COULD LOWER VBSYS/CIGS INTO THE MVFR CATEGORY.                    
&&                                                                              
.MARINE (FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)...                       
AS A LOW PRESSURE CENTER OVER SOUTHEAST CANADA CONTINUES TO THE EAST            
TODAY...A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL MIGRATE ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT               
LAKES BY THIS EVENING AND INTO NEW ENGLAND BY LATE MONDAY. STRONG N             
WINDS EARLY TODAY WILL DIMINISH QUICKLY AS THIS RIDGE APPROACHES. IN            
THE WAKE OF THE RIDGE...EXPECT A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH TO DRIFT OVER              
LAKE SUPERIOR ON MONDAY NIGHT. ONCE THIS TROUGH PUSHES TO THE EAST              
ON TUESDAY...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER MISSOURI WILL MOVE NORTHEAST            
ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AND TO THE ST LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY BY             
EARLY WEDNESDAY. NORTH WINDS ON THE NORTHERN FLANK OF THIS LOW TRACK            
MAY REACH 30 KNOTS OVER CENTRAL AND EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR ON TUESDAY            
AND TUESDAY NIGHT. A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL FOLLOW ACROSS THE                 
UPPER GREAT LAKES ON WEDNESDAY BEFORE ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM               
MOVES EAST FROM THE PLAINS TO NEAR UPPER MICHIGAN ON THURSDAY.                  
RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS WILL PREVAIL ON THESE TWO DAYS.                          
&&                                                                              
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
UPPER MICHIGAN...                                                               
  WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR MIZ006-085.             
  LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY                       
    AFTERNOON FOR MIZ007-014.                                                   
LAKE SUPERIOR...NONE.                                                           
LAKE MICHIGAN...NONE.                                                           
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SYNOPSIS/DISCUSSION...JLA                                                       
AVIATION...JV                                                                   
MARINE...KC                                                                     
</pre> mi                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
1218 AM EST SUN DEC 7 2008                                                      
UPDATE FOR 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION                                              
.UPDATE...                                                                      
BIGGEST CHANGE ON UPDATE WAS TO DROP BLIZZARD WARNINGS FOR ALGER                
AND NRN SCHOOLCRAFT AND PUT UP WINTER STORM WARNINGS INTO SUNDAY                
MORNING AS STRONG NNW WINDS SHOWING SIGNS OF WEAKENING SOME WITH                
BUILDING RDG FROM THE WEST. STILL EXPECT ENHANCED LLVL CONV TO FOCUS            
HEAVIER LES BANDS INTO THESE COUNTIES OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY AND WIND            
GUSTS TO 30 MPH AT TIMES WILL ALSO CONTRIBUTE TO BLOWING/DRIFTING               
AND OCCASIONAL WHITEOUT CONDITIONS.                                             
ALSO DROPPED LES ADVISORY FOR BARAGA AS DRIER AIR HAS REALLY                    
DIMINISHED LES BANDS OVER WRN LAKE SUPERIOR.                                    
REST OF FCST STILL OF TRACK SO DIDN`T MAKE ANY OTHER BIG                        
CHANGES.                                                                        
&&                                                                              
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
20Z WATER VAPOR LOOP AND RUC 500MB HEIGHT ANALYSIS SHOWED RIDGING               
OVER THE WESTERN U.S. AND A TROUGH EXTENDING FROM HUDSON BAY                    
SOUTHWARD INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. UPPER MI SITS IN THE MIDDLE OF             
THE TROUGH AXIS...AND RIGHT UNDERNEATH A SHRTWV AT 500MB. DPVA                  
FORCING WITH THE SHRTWV COMBINED WITH LAKE EFFECT AND A COLD FRONT              
TO GENERATE A BAND OF HEAVY SNOWFALL THAT MOVED THROUGH UPPER MI                
EARLY THIS AFTN. THE COLD FRONT IS ASSOCIATED WITH A 1001 MB                    
LOW...LOCATED NOW NEAR DRUMMOND ISLAND. WITH THE SHRTWV OVER UPPER              
MI...THE CWA IS BEGINNING TO SEE DNVA AND LOWERING INVERSIONS...AS              
NOTED BY 12Z SOUNDINGS FROM INL AND CWPL. NUMEROUS LAKE EFFECT                  
MULTI-PARALLEL BANDS HAVE DEVELOPED WITH COLD AIR FLOWING IN                    
UNDERNEATH THE INVERSION...MOST INTENSE OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL AND              
EAST WITH THE LONGER FETCH OF NW WINDS. 850MB TEMPS PER RUC ANALYSIS            
RANGED FROM -20C WEST TO -15C EAST. DESPITE THE COLD AIRMASS...LAKE             
EFFECT IS DIMINISHING OVER WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR THANKS TO DRIER AIR            
ADVECTING IN OUT OF MN. THIS DRIER AIR IS NOTED BY THE 12Z INL AND              
CWPL SOUNDINGS HAVING PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES LESS THAN 0.10 OF AN            
INCH AND SFC DEWPOINTS BELOW ZERO F. THE DRIER AIR IS ALSO                      
ASSOCIATED WITH A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE THAT COVERS MANITOBA AND NORTH            
DAKOTA. FARTHER TO THE WEST...MID AND HIGH CLOUDS ARE MOVING ACROSS             
THE WESTERN DAKOTAS AND EASTERN MONTANA...ASSOCIATED WITH WARM                  
ADVECTION AHEAD OF A SHRTWV MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL BRITISH COLUMBIA             
AND ALBERTA.                                                                    
FOR LATEST SNOWFALL REPORTS AND BLOWING SNOW IMPACTS...SEE ARBLSRMQT.           
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT AND SUN)...                                                
UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS ARE PROGGED TO RISE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS             
THE TROUGH AXIS PUSHES OFF TO THE EAST. THEREFORE...INVERSIONS WILL             
CONTINUE TO LOWER ACROSS THE CWA WHILE DRIER AIR ADVECTS IN FROM THE            
WEST. THE COMBINATION OF BOTH FACTORS SHOULD ALLOW SNOW SHOWERS TO              
BECOME SCATTERED OVER WESTERN UPPER MI TONIGHT WITH MUCH LESS                   
ACCUMULATION. GOING END TIMES FOR THE WARNINGS FOR WESTERN UPPER                
MICHIGAN AT 7 PM EST THIS EVENING LOOK GOOD. FOR NORTH CENTRAL AND              
EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN...THE LONGER FETCH OF NW WINDS COMBINED WITH             
LAND BREEZES COMING OUT OF WESTERN UPPER MI SHOULD KEEP THE LAKE                
EFFECT GOING LONGER. IN ADDITION...UPSTREAM MOISTENING OFF LAKE                 
NIPIGON IS EXPECTED...AS IS OCCURRING ATTM. IN FACT...LAST FEW RUC              
RUNS AND OUR LOCAL WRF-ARW RUNS SUGGEST A SINGLE BAND FROM LAKE                 
NIPIGON...OFF THE TIP OF THE KEWEENAW AND INTO THE                              
ALGER/DELTA/MARQUETTE COUNTY LINES. THIS SEEMS REASONABLE AS THE                
LAND BREEZE DEVELOPS AND CONVERGES ON THE GENERAL NNW TO NW FLOW                
BEHIND THE DEPARTING SFC LOW. SHOULD THE BAND STAY IN PLACE...                  
SOUNDINGS AND MODEL DERIVED QPF AMOUNTS SUGGEST THAT 1 INCH PER HOUR            
RATES ARE REASONABLE. THEREFORE...WILL CONTINUE WARNINGS FOR                    
ALGER...DELTA AND MARQUETTE COUNTIES. SCHOOLCRAFT AND LUCE COUNTIES             
ARE A LITTLE MORE TROUBLESOME...AND WAS TEMPTED TO DROP THE WARNINGS            
AS ONLY THE MULTI-PARALLEL BANDS ARE EXPECTED THERE. HOWEVER...WITH             
THE WIND BLOWING THE SNOW THIS EVENING AND THE WARNING ONLY BEING UP            
FOR ABOUT 3 TO 4 HOURS SO FAR...HAVE DECIDED TO LEAVE IT UP FOR NOW.            
LAKE EFFECT OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL AND EAST SHOULD GRADUALLY                    
DIMINISH ON SUNDAY AS THE DRIER AIR OVER WESTERN UPPER MI BUILDS IN             
THERE. STILL MAINTAINED LIKELY POPS SUNDAY AFTN FOR NORTHERN                    
SCHOOLCRAFT/LUCE AS IT LOOKS LIKE THE LAKE NIPIGON ENHANCED BAND                
WILL SHIFT IN THERE. BESIDES THE LAKE EFFECT...ANOTHER POSSIBLE PCPN            
IMPACT IS SOME WARM ADVECTION -SN MOVING IN SUNDAY AFTN. THIS WARM              
ADVECTION PCPN IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE MID/HIGH CLOUD IN THE WESTERN             
DAKOTAS AND EASTERN MONTANA. THE CANADIAN MODEL WAS VERY AGGRESSIVE             
BRINGING THIS PCPN INTO UPPER MI...MAKING ITS WAY INTO THE CENTRAL              
U.P.. HOWEVER...IT IS AN OUTLIER AND PROBABLY TOO FAST GIVEN THAT               
SOUNDINGS SHOW PLENTY OF DRY AIR. INSTEAD...FOLLOWED THE GFS/LOCAL              
WRF-ARW RUNS WHICH ONLY BRING A HUNDREDTH OF QPF INTO FAR WESTERN               
UPPER MI.                                                                       
ANOTHER ISSUE FOR THE FORECAST IS TEMPS TONIGHT. IT APPEARS SOME OF             
THE WI BORDER AREAS COULD CLEAR OUT. GIVEN FRESH SNOW AND THE DRY               
AIRMASS MOVING IN...TEMPS WOULD PLUMMET ASSUMING WINDS BECOME CALM.             
LOWERED MINS ALONG THE WI BORDER OF GOGEBIC AND IRON COUNTIES TO 0              
TO 5 BELOW ZERO...BUT MAY NOT BE LOW ENOUGH IF CLOUDS CLEAR SOONER.             
FOR SUNDAY...WITH THE HIGH CLOUDS MOVING IN DURING THE AFTERNOON AND            
A COLD AIRMASS IN PLACE (850MB TEMPS ONLY REACHING -16C AT                      
18Z)...FOLLOWED SIMILARLY TO THE MIDNIGHT SHIFT OF STAYING WITH THE             
COLDER MAV GUIDANCE READINGS FOR HIGHS.                                         
.LONG TERM (SUN NIGHT THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY)...                                 
UPPER FLOW CONTINUES TO BE FROM THE NW THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH                  
TROUGHING IN THE AREA WITH MORE TROUGHING DIGGING TOWARDS THE AREA              
FOR TUE. NAM SHOWING 850-500 MB Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE AND MOISTURE               
MOVING THROUGH THE AREA SUN NIGHT INTO MON MORNING BEFORE BOTH MOVE             
OUT BY MON AFTERNOON. NAM SHOWING ISENTROPIC LIFT ON I280K-I295K                
SURFACES WITH SOME MOISTURE MOVING ACROSS THE CWA SUN NIGHT WITH THE            
MOISTURE MOVING OUT MON MORNING EXCEPT IN THE LOWEST LEVELS ON I280K            
SURFACE WHICH LINGERS. GFS SHOWS SOME ISENTROPIC LIFT ON I280K                  
SURFACE WITH MOISTURE AS WELL SUN NIGHT AND THE MOISTURE MOVES OUT              
ON MON. BASICALLY...LOOKS LIKE RIGHT NOW...THIS SYSTEM FOR SUN NIGHT            
GOES MOSTLY TO THE SOUTH OF CWA AND DOES NOT LOOK LIKE HEADLINES                
WILL BE NEEDED. ONLY EXCEPTION AND WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED IS LUCE              
AND SCHOOLCRAFT COUNTIES WHERE THERE COULD BE A LAKE MICHIGAN BAND              
THAT FORMS FROM THE SOUTH WINDS THAT OCCUR AND THIS COULD POSSIBLY              
BE ACROSS THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF THOSE TWO COUNTIES. IT IS COLD                
ENOUGH FOR LAKE EFFECT TO FORM AND WITH WINDS CONVERGING ACROSS                 
EASTERN LAKE MICHIGAN...A LONG FETCH WOULD FORM. ONLY THING IS THERE            
COULD BE ENOUGH OF A LAND BREEZE TO PUSH THIS BAND A BIT FURTHER                
EAST AND KEEP OUT OF THOSE TWO COUNTIES AS WELL. THE LAND BREEZE                
COULD ALSO DISRUPT THE BAND AS WELL. WILL MENTION THIS IN THE HWO               
PRODUCT FOR NOW AND NOT HIGHLIGHT...BUT THIS POSSIBILITY OF A HEAVY             
LAKE EFFECT BAND WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED.                                       
CHANGE FOR THIS FORECAST WAS ALSO TO GO LIKELY POPS LATE SUNDAY                 
NIGHT FOR ALL OF CWA WITH DEEP MOISTURE. FOR TUESDAY...SIGNIFICANT              
TROUGH DIGGING CAUSES A SYSTEM TO COME UP FROM THE SW. SOUTHERN CWA             
IS ON THE NORTHERN END OF THIS SYSTEM WITH LAKE EFFECT ACROSS THE               
REST OF THE CWA. SIGNIFICANT SYSTEM SNOW WOULD BE ACROSS THE                    
SOUTHERN CWA AND BUMPED POPS UP TO LIKELY FOR THIS AREA. IF THIS                
SYSTEM COMES A BIT FURTHER NORTH...THEN WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED AS              
WELL. SUBSEQUENT MODEL RUNS WILL HELP TO DETERMINE IF THIS SYSTEM               
WILL AFFECT US MORE WITH HEAVIER SNOW OR NOT.                                   
IN THE EXTENDED...GFS...ECMWF AND CANADIAN ALL SHOW A 500 MB TROUGH             
ACROSS THE CENTRAL U.S. WITH RIDGING IN THE WESTERN U.S. 00Z WED.               
MORE TROUGHING COMES IN FOR 00Z THU AND REMAINS THROUGH 00Z SUN.                
LOOKS PRETTY ACTIVE IN THE EXTENDED AND LOOKS LIKE REPEAT LAKE                  
EFFECT EVENT EPISODES WITH ALBERTA CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEMS MOVING                  
THROUGH EVERY SO OFTEN. BROADBRUSHED THE EXTENDED AND KEPT SOME POPS            
IN NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR EVERY DAY WITH COLD ENOUGH AIR AROUND AND SOME            
SHORTWAVES NEAR THE AREA AS WELL. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO STAY BELOW               
NORMAL.USED THE ECMWF AS GUIDANCE FOR THIS EXTENDED FORECAST AND DID            
NOT STRAY TOO MUCH FROM IT. CLIPPER SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH WED NIGHT              
AND THIS LOOKS TO BE THE BEST CHANCE FOR WIDEPSREAD SNOW THEN.                  
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION (FOR THE 06Z TAF ISSUANCE)...                                         
MULTI-PARALLEL BAND LAKE EFFECT SNOW WINDING DOWN FROM THE WEST THIS            
EVENING. VERY DRY AIR UPSTREAM GREATLY DIMINISHING LES OVER WRN LAKE            
SUPERIOR THIS EVENING. HAVE DECIDED TO GO WITH VFR VBSY AT KCMX                 
THROUGH THE PERIOD BUT WILL KEEP MVFR CIGS UNTIL WINDS BACK SW BY               
20Z SUN. MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN LIGHT SNOW SHOULD RETURN BY LATE SUN                
EVENING AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM MOVING IN FROM THE NRN PLAINS.                 
WINDS BACKING NW AT KSAW WILL SHIFT SIGNIFICANT LES BANDS EAST                  
OVERNIGHT WITH VFR VSBYS EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. WINDS             
BACKING W LATE TONIGHT WILL BREAK UP MVFR CIGS AND KEEP SKIES VFR               
INTO SUN EVENING. THERE IS ANOTHER CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW LATE SUN                
EVENING WHICH COULD LOWER VBSYS/CIGS INTO THE MVFR CATEGORY.                    
&&                                                                              
.MARINE (FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)...                       
NORTH GALES OF UP TO 45 KNOTS...STRONGEST ON EASTERN SUPERIOR...WILL            
DIMINISH BELOW 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE                 
BUILDS IN FROM THE DAKOTAS. EXPECT WINDS TO GENERALLY REMAIN AT OR              
BELOW 30 KNOTS THEN THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. ON TUESDAY...AN AREA OF               
LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS IS EXPECTED TO MOVE            
NORTHEAST...REACHING THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES ON WEDNESDAY. A PERIOD             
OF NORTH GALES TO 35 KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE BEHIND THE LOW OVER EASTERN             
LAKE SUPERIOR TUESDAY NIGHT...THEN WINDS WILL DROP BACK DOWN BELOW              
30 KNOTS FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.                                            
&&                                                                              
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
UPPER MICHIGAN...                                                               
  WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 11 AM EST SUNDAY FOR MIZ006-085.                   
  WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EST SUNDAY FOR MIZ007.                       
  WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST SUNDAY FOR MIZ005-013-014.                
LAKE SUPERIOR...                                                                
  GALE WARNING UNTIL 3 AM EST SUNDAY FOR LSZ248>251-265>267.                    
  GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR LSZ263-264.                     
  GALE WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR LSZ242>245.                       
LAKE MICHIGAN...                                                                
  GALE WARNING UNTIL 3 AM EST SUNDAY FOR LMZ221-250.                            
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
UPDATE...VOSS                                                                   
SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM...AJ                                                        
LONG TERM...GJM                                                                 
AVIATION...JV                                                                   
MARINE...AJ                                                                     
</pre> mi                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN                              
353 AM CST SUN DEC 7 2008                                                       
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
BAND OF SNOW SETTING UP IN STRONG ISENTROPIC LIFT ZONE ACROSS                   
EASTERN DAKOTAS...WHICH WILL BE MOVING ACROSS CWA TODAY. DPROG/DT               
ON BOTH NAM AND GFS SHOWING A FASTER MOVEMENT ACROSS THE                        
AREA...AND LATEST RUC13 TRENDS SHOWING A FASTER TREND AS WELL. WILL             
SPEED UP ENDING ACROSS THE AREA. HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES                 
LAST EVENING OVER EASTERN MT AND SOME OF THIS GETS ENTRAINED IN THE             
LIFT ZONE. 3 TO 4 GT/KG ON THE 290 SURFACE SHOWS UP THIS                        
AFTERNOON JUST TO OUR WEST AS WELL. BETTER LAYER THETA E                        
ADVECTION SEEMS TO DEVELOP OVER SE MN THIS AFTERNOON BUT MORE                   
INSTABILITY IN THE MID LEVELS INDICATED OVER N MN. WILL BE HARD TO              
PIN DOWN BETTER SNOW AMOUNTS...SO WILL KEEP THE IDEA OF THE CHANCE              
OF A BROAD AREA OF AN 1 TO 2 INCHES ACROSS MAINLY EASTERN AREAS.                
PATTERN MOVING ALONG AT A GOOD CLIP SO THIS WILL HOLD DOWN AMOUNTS              
DESPITE THE GOOD MOISTURE EVENTUALLY BECOMING INVOLVED.                         
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL OF FZDZ AFTER THE WAVE                 
MOVES THROUGH THIS EVENING WITH SOME WEAK LIFT HANGING AROUND.                  
WILL KEEP THIS CHANCE MAINLY SOUTH CENTRAL MN WHERE MINOR SREF                  
POPS OF ZR SHOW UP.                                                             
FORECAST A LITTLE TRICKY FOR LATER MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. ECMWF HAS               
BEEN SHOWING SOME CONSISTENCY WITH A FARTHER NORTH BIAS TO                      
STRONGER FORCING DEVELOPING OVER THE PLAINS. EVEN GFS AND NAM                   
SHOW A RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE UPPER JET FAVORING SOUTHERN MN              
FOR A TIME MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY TUESDAY. WILL UP POPS A                  
LITTLE OVER A WIDER AREA BEGINNING MONDAY AFTERNOON BUT STILL KEEP              
THE BETS POTENTIAL OVER THE FAR SOUTH.                                          
PATTERN LOOKING MORE ACTIVE IN THE LONGER RANGE WITH MORE UPPER RIDGING         
DEVELOPING OVER AK ALLOWING FOR WSW OVERRUNNING OVER THE                        
DEEPENING ARCTIC AIR OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST. THIS CAUSING TIMING                
AND INTENSITY DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS. REALLY SHOWS UP IN THE                 
ENSEMBLE UNCERTAINTY WITH HUGE VALUES THIS WEEKEND.                             
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION.../06Z TAF ISSUANCE/                                                  
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH 600 AM SUNDAY MORNING...THEN                
CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO LOWER AS WARM AND MOIST AIR OVERRUNS THE COLDER            
AIR THAT IN PLACE OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST.  IN THE MEANTIME...HIGH               
CLOUDS WILL SPREAD OVER THE TAF SITES GENLY ABV 10K AGL OVERNIGHT.              
ANOTHER IN THE SERIES OF ALBERTA CLIPPERS THAT HAVE ADVANCED OVER               
THE UPPER MIDWEST DURING THE PAST FEW DAYS WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST AS               
WEAKEN AS MOVES OVER THE DAKOTAS SUNDAY NIGHT. WEATHER CONDITIONS               
WILL LOWER IN SNOW OVER THE WESTERN SECTION OF MN BY NOON AND OVER              
THE WESTERN WISCONSIN BY LATE AFTERNOON/SUNDAY EVENING. VISIBILITY              
LOWERING BETWEEN 1-3 MILES AND CEILINGS 1000-2000 FT AGL. CEILINGS              
EXPECTED TO LOWER TO IFR CONDS                                                  
BY MONDAY MORNING OVER MOST TAF SITES.                                          
&&                                                                              
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
MN...NONE.                                                                      
WI...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
JPR/JVM                                                                         
</pre> mn                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI                                           
411 AM CST SUN DEC 7 2008                                                       
.SHORT TERM...THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT                                             
PLENTY OF HEADACHES IN THE SHORT TERM WITH WEAK SYSTEM/LIGHT SNOW               
EVENT TODAY...POTENTIAL FOR FREEZING DRIZZLE TONIGHT...AND THEN                 
WINTER STORM POTENTIAL BEGINNING MONDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUING INTO TUESDAY.      
CURRENTLY...SFC HIGH SITS RIGHT ON TOP OF MS RIVER WITH WIDESPREAD              
SUBZERO TEMPS IN THE FRESH SNOWPACK/CLEAR SKIES/CALM WIND AREA                  
OVER THE FORECAST AREA. HIGH CLOUDS SO FAR DOING LITTLE TO HOLD                 
BACK THE RADIATIONAL COOLING. -13F AT SPARTA AS OF 09Z. GOES WATER              
VAPOR SHOWS WEAK/SHEARED PV ANOMALY OVER SASKATCHEWAN SHIFTING QUICKLY          
SOUTHEAST IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. BROAD WARM ADVECTION WING OF                 
LIGHT SNOW OVER DAKOTAS WITH 1-3SM VSBYS CROSSING INTO MN SOON.                 
07.06Z RUC ANALYSIS HAD -14 TO -16C AIR OVER ARX FORECAST AREA                  
/NWLY FLOW/ WITH +1C AT KUNR /RAPID CITY/ ON SWLY FLOW.                         
REGARDING MODEL AGREEMENT/CONFIDENCE...ENOUGH HAS COME INTO LINE                
REGARDING MON NIGHT/TUES SYSTEM TO ISSUE WINTER STORM WATCH FOR                 
SRN/SERN SIDE OF FORECAST AREA. 07.00Z GFS/GEM CONTINUE TO SHIFT                
NORTH TOWARD PVS RUNS OF ECMWF AND NOW SPORT SIGNIFICANT QPF                    
ACROSS IOWA INTO INTO SRN WISCONSIN FROM MONDAY NIGHT INTO                      
TUESDAY. EVEN LOCALLY RUN WRF /ARW-WRF INITIALIZED WITH GFS                     
BOUNDARY CONDITIONS/ HAS COME INTO LINE WITH A VERY NICE                        
DOWNSCALED RENDITION OF THE 07.00Z GFS...SHOWING POTENTIAL FOR                  
SIGNIFICANT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS NERN IA INTO SWRN WISCONSIN.              
WFO COLLABORATION SUPPORTED CURRENT WATCH ALIGNMENT WITH MAIN                   
FOCUS ON MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AFTERNOON. MORE ON THIS SYSTEM BELOW.        
FIRST WITH TODAY/TONIGHT WEATHER SYSTEM...THE TREND HERE IS TOWARD              
A LITTLE WEAKER SYSTEM...QUICKER...WITH A SHORTER DURATION EVENT.               
EXPECT STRONG BURST OF ISENTROPIC ASCENT /285K-295K/ AND MID LEVEL              
Q/G SIGNAL TO WORK MODEST MOISTURE IN PLACE TO CONTINUE TO MIGRATE              
BAND OF SNOW INTO THE AREA EITHER VERY LATE THIS MORNING BUT FOR                
SURE BY THIS AFTERNOON INTO AND ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. WHILE WE              
BUMPED THE SNOW CHANCES HIGHER...THE QUICKER/MORE TRANSIENT NATURE              
OF THE FORCING ALLOWED FOR A LITTLE LIGHTER QPF/SNOW AMOUNT.                    
THINKING NOW IS FOR WIDESPREAD 1 INCH AMOUNTS...WITH A FEW LOCALLY              
UP TO 2 INCHES...MAINLY WEST OF MS RIVER. PV ALOFT IS AWFULLY                   
WEAK/SHEARED OUT...SO THIS SUPPORTS A WEAKER REFLECTION                         
BELOW...AND AN EVENT DRIVEN LARGELY BY MODEST THERMODYNAMICS. WITH              
WARMER AIR STREAMING IN ALOFT...THE DENDRITIC GROWTH POTENTIAL                  
WANES QUICKLY WITH RATIOS DECREASING BY THE HOUR.                               
TONIGHT...EXPECT BAND OF SNOW TO BE MAINLY EAST OF MS RIVER AND                 
WEAKENING. STILL SEEING A WINDOW /3-5HR/ RIGHT AS THE SNOW ENDS FOR             
ICE-BEARING CLOUD TO DEPART BUT HAVE SFC-2KM DEEP MOISTURE FIELD                
STILL FEELING SOME SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT/LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION TO              
PRODUCE SOME FREEZING DRIZZLE. WHILE SOME NAM/GFS RUNS OVER THE                 
PAST DAYS HAVE BROUGHT A NICE SFC REFLECTION OF THE UPPER LEVEL                 
WAVE INTO THE AREA TO HELP INCREASE CONVERGENCE/LIFT...THE LATTER               
RUNS ARE NOT HITTING THIS SO HARD...HENCE WE MAY BE LACKING OMEGA               
IN AN OTHERWISE VERY NICE SETUP FOR FREEZING DRIZZLE. HENCE...WILL              
KEEP IT PATCHY WORDING FOR NOW...AND IF IT LOOKS LIKE WE CAN SET                
UP A GOOD ENOUGH CONVERGENCE AXIS IN THE LOWEST 1-2KM...COVERAGE                
CAN BE UPGRADED. WITH TIME OVERNIGHT...THE MOISTURE SHALLOWS OUT                
BELOW 1KM SO THREAT WILL BE DIMINISHING WITH TIME. HAVE SEEN                    
/ESPECIALLY THE HIGHER RESOLUTION SPC-WRF/NCAR-WRF/LOCALLY RUN                  
WRF/ THE TRADEMARK SPECKLES OF QPF INDICATING DRIZZLE HERE AND                  
THERE...SO THINK IT/S STILL QUITE POSSIBLE.                                     
MONDAY...TRICKY DAY. LARGE SCALE FORCING /MID AND UPPER LEVEL Q/G               
AND FRONTOGENESIS/ SLOWLY STARTS TO INCREASE AS NRN/SRN STREAM                  
ENERGY ADVANCES ACROSS THE ROCKIES INDUCING A BACKING OF THE MID                
LEVEL FLOW. QPF IN THE MODELS HAS BEEN HERE AND THERE...BUT THERE               
HAS BEEN SOME TRENDS TOWARD A BAND OF LIGHT SNOW /WHICH MAY                     
BRIEFLY MIX WITH FREEZING RAIN OR SLEET/ GIVEN MARGINAL THERMAL                 
STRUCTURES IN WARM ADVECTION TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE              
AFTERNOON. VERY LIGHT IN AMOUNTS...BUT ENOUGH TO REINTRODUCE SNOW               
CHANCES BACK TO THE FORECAST. A WARMER DAY WITH HIGHS NEAR 30.                  
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...DESPITE 07.00Z AND 07.06Z                  
NAM-WRF BACKING WAY OFF OF PREVIOUS SHIFT TOWARD ECMWF SOLN AND                 
MANY NAM SREF MEMBERS IN THIS NAM-WRF CAMP...THERE WAS SIGNIFICANT              
MOVEMENT IN NON-NAM SOLUTIONS TOWARD A WINTER STORM OVER IOWA/SRN               
WISCONSIN THIS TIME PERIOD. 07.00Z GEM/GFS/ECMWF ALL AGREE /IN                  
MOST PART/ THAT SRN STREAM ENERGY WILL COME OUT OF THE SRN ROCKIES              
AND BECOME DOMINANT INDUCING 995MB ELONGATED LOW PRESSURE OVER                  
TX/OK BORDER REGION ON MONDAY EVENING. INFLUX OF DEEPER MOISTURE                
ON THETA-SFC AND ISENTROPIC LIFT REALLY TAKE OFF MONDAY NIGHT AS                
SFC LOW MOVES INTO CNTL/SRN MO. SFC LOW NEVER REALLY DEEPENS...AND              
EVENTUALLY BECOMES MORE ELONGATED WITH THE MAIN CENTER INTO ERN                 
ILL BY 00Z WED. INITIAL PV/SHORTWAVE OVER TX PANHANDLE MON EVENING              
EJECTS NORTHEAST AHEAD OF STRONGER WAVE OVER COLORADO...WHICH DIGS              
AND EJECTS INTO IA/MO ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON. RESULT IS LONGER                    
DURATION SNOW EVENT WITH EPISODES OF HEAVIER QPF THROUGH THE LONG               
EVENT TIED TO THESE SHORTWAVES...AND SOME ENERGY IN THE NRN STREAM              
AS WELL. TROUGH AXIS/PV EAST OF AREA BY TUESDAY NIGHT SUPPORTING                
RAPID END OF SNOW. MATURE BAND OF DEEP MOISTURE FROM KS/NEB                     
THROUGH IA/SRN WISCONSIN IN PLACE AS WAVES ARRIVE TO ASSIST IN PCPN             
PRODUCTION. MID LEVEL /700-500MB/ FRONTOGENESIS AXIS...WHILE NOT                
OVERLY STRONG...REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS NRN IA INTO NRN WIS                     
THROUGH THE PERIOD TO AUGMENT LARGER SCALE LIFT IN RIGHT ENTRANCE               
REGION OF 150-170KT JET ACROSS ERN CANADA...WITH COUPLING OF JETS               
NOTED AS 120KT JET EJECTS OUT OF SRN STREAM INTO CNTL CONUS ON                  
TUES. PLENTY OF FORCING HERE. ACCORDING TO 07.00Z GFS CROSS                     
SECTIONS NORMAL TO THE THICKNESS PATTERN...BEST DEEP LAYERED                    
OMEGA/AGEOSTROPHIC RESPONSE COMES IN 06Z TUES-18Z TUES TIME FRAME               
ACROSS NERN IA/SWRN WI.                                                         
AFOREMENTIONED MODELS ALL PRODUCING 0.5 TO 0.8 INCHES OF LIQUID                 
ACROSS NERN IA/SWRN WISCONSIN...WHICH SEEMS ENOUGH FOR WATCH GIVEN              
CONSIDERATION TO STRONGER WINDS WHICH MAY DEVELOP ACROSS NERN IA                
ON TUES WHICH MAY ADD SOME BLOWING SNOW. ECMWF WOULD ARGUE FOR                  
ADDING ANOTHER TIER OF COUNTIES ON THE NORTH SIDE OF CURRENT                    
WATCH...BUT IS ALONE IN THIS DEPICTION RIGHT NOW. 07.00Z GEM IS                 
VERY MUCH LIKE THE ECMWF WITH QPF FOR THE EVENT TOWARD 1 INCH                   
ACROSS SWRN WISCONSIN...BUT RIGHT NOW FORCING DOESN/T SEEM TO                   
SUPPORT THIS AMOUNT OF QPF WITH LACK OF MID LEVEL INSTABILITY                   
/-EPV/ OR A STRONGER FGEN SIGNAL. ONE OTHER CAVEAT...INITIAL WARM               
AIR ALOFT /USING MAX WET BULB TEMP/ CLOSE ENOUGH THAT PERIOD OF                 
SLEET/FREEZING RAIN MAY BEGIN THE EVENT BEFORE LIFT/COOLING TURNS               
IT TO SNOW. RIGHT NOW THAT/S NOT IN ARX FORECAST AREA...BUT CLOSE               
ENOUGH THAT IT MAY BECOME A PLAYER. BOTTOM LINE...CURRENT THINKING              
IS A 5-8 INCH BAND OF SNOW ACROSS MUCH OF NERN IA INTO SWRN                     
WISCONSIN...WITH MAIN EMPHASIS ON LATER MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING.      
.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY                                         
NOT MUCH TIME SPENT IN THIS PERIOD THANKS TO WEATHER SYSTEMS IN                 
THE SHORT TERM OCCUPYING MUCH OF THE TIME THIS MORNING. THE BOTTOM              
LINE HASN/T CHANGED...THERE/S STILL TREMENDOUS SPREAD BETWEEN THE               
DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE MEMBERS WITH REGARDS TO THE LARGE POOL               
OF ARCTIC AIR WITH THE POLAR VORTEX OVER CANADA...AND HOW/IF/WHEN               
SOME OF THAT BITTER AIR SPILLS SOUTH. THERE/S ENOUGH AGREEMENT                  
THAT WED WILL BE DRY/COLD IN THERMAL TROUGH IN WAKE OF                          
MONDAY/TUESDAY STORM. AFTER THAT...CONFIDENCE RAPIDLY                           
DETERIORATES. STILL SEEING CONFIDENCE PLOTS SPELL OUT AN EXTREME                
DEGREE OF VOLATILITY IN THE 21 MEMBER GEFS...THAT AN ENSEMBLE                   
APPROACH IS BASICALLY USELESS WITH FORECAST ENSEMBLE SPREAD                     
EXCEEDING THE 25 YEAR REANALYSIS OBSERVED CLIMATOLOGICAL                        
SPREAD...WHICH IS RARE. VIEWED GRAPHICALLY...THE GEFS MEMBER                    
PLUMES SHOWING 850MB TEMP RANGE FROM 0C TO -30C...WITH THIS DEGREE              
OF SPREAD FROM DEC11 INTO DEC15. ACTUALLY FIND SOME SEMBLANCE OF                
AGREEMENT AFTER FRIDAY IN THE 07.00Z ECMWF/GFS DETERMINISTIC RUNS               
WHICH ARE HIGHER RESOLUTION...BUT THURSDAY/FRIDAY HAVE A HUGE                   
SPREAD ON TEMPERATURES WITH GFS SAYING ARCTIC PLUNGE AND ECMWF                  
MUCH MORE MODIFIED. CHOSE TO CHANGE VERY LITTLE HERE UNTIL A MORE               
CLEAR SIGNAL IS SEEN. WEAK WAVES IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW UNDERNEATH               
THE POLAR VORTEX WILL KEEP PESKY LIGHT SNOW CHANCES INTO THE END                
OF THE WEEK. HEADING INTO NEXT WEEKEND/EARLY NEXT WEEK...THERE                  
SEEMS TO BE GROWING CONSENSUS OF AN EXTREMELY ACTIVE PERIOD                     
DEVELOPING AS WRN TROUGHING/VERY COLD AIRMASS SETTLES SOUTH INTO                
NRN ROCKIES SETTING UP VERY TIGHT BAROCLINIC ZONE FROM SW-NE                    
ACROSS THE HEART OF THE CONUS. MASSIVE 1040-1045MB HIGH PRESSURE                
IN WRN CANADA/NRN CONUS FUNNELS ARCTIC AIR SOUTH...WITH BAROCLINIC ZONE         
SERVING FOCUS FOR SNOW EPISODES ON AND OFF. WHERE THE FRONT SETS                
UP WILL BE THE MAJOR QUESTION. THERE/S NO DOUBT...WINTER IS IN                  
FULL SWING.                                                                     
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
ZONE OF STRONG 850-700MB WARM ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL MOVE               
ACROSS THE AREA CENTERED ON THIS AFTERNOON. A MODEST AMOUNT OF                  
MOISTURE ACCOMPANIES THIS LIFT...WITH CLOUDS THICKENING/LOWERING                
THRU THE MORNING AS THE LIFT APPROACHES. STRONGEST LIFT/DEEPEST                 
MOISTURE/SATURATION MOVE ACROSS THE TAF SITES DURING THE                        
AFTERNOON...BUT WITH THE MODEST MOISTURE AT BEST...APPEARS CIG/VSBY             
RESTRICTIONS WILL MAINLY BE MVFR AS THE BAND OF -SN MOVES ACROSS THE            
AREA. OF GREATER CONCERN IS LOSS OF DEEPER MOISTURE FOR THE LATE                
AFTERNOON EVENING HOURS WHILE SOME FORCING/LIFT/MOISTURE REMAIN IN              
THE LOWEST 2KM TO 3KM OF THE ATMOSPHERE...WHICH IS A FREEZING                   
DRIZZLE SIGNAL. THIS SIGNAL MOST PRONOUNCED DURING THE EARLY EVENING            
AND WILL ADD A MENTION OF THE -FZDZ WITH NEXT TAF ISSUANCE. IFR/MVFR            
CIGS EXPECTED TONIGHT WITH THE WEAK LIFT AND SOUTH/SOUTHEAST WINDS              
CONTINUING TO PULL LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE NORTHWARD INTO THE AREA.                
&&                                                                              
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
WI...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM MONDAY EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON           
     FOR WIZ043-WIZ044-WIZ053-WIZ054-WIZ055-WIZ061.                             
MN...NONE.                                                                      
IA...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM MONDAY EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON           
     FOR IAZ010-IAZ011-IAZ018-IAZ019-IAZ029-IAZ030.                             
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHORT/LONG TERM...BINAU                                                         
AVIATION...RRS                                                                  
</pre> wi                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY                                            
316 AM MST SUN DEC 7 2008                                                       
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...                                     
WEAK RETURNS ON THE KCYS 88D CONTINUE EARLY THIS MORNING OVER THE               
WEST PART OF THE CWA.  MOST OF THE MOISTURE REMAINS ABOVE 700 MB                
AND WITH CURRENT FAIRLY LARGE SURFACE TEMPERATURE AND DEW POINT                 
SPREADS VERY LITTLE PRECIPITATION SHOULD REACH THE GROUND.  THE                 
RUC DEPICTS SOME LIGHT QPF OVER THE WEST PART OF THE CWA THROUGH                
15Z.  WILL PLACE LOW POPS OVER THAT AREA FIRST THING THIS MORNING.              
OTHERWISE FOR TODAY...FAST NORTHWEST WIND FLOW ALOFT WILL PERSIST               
ACROSS THE REGION.  THE SURFACE BOUNDARY CURRENTLY OVER THE FAR                 
EAST PART OF WYOMING WILL BE ERODED FROM WEST TO EAST.  BEHIND                  
THE BOUNDAY ARE VERY MILD TEMPERATURES...WITH 20S CURRENTLY OVER                
PARTS OF THE WESTERN PANHANDLE.  THE 700 MB TEMPERATURES WILL BE                
ABOVE ZERO TODAY AND WITH THE WEST WINDS...HIGHS SHOULD AGAIN BE                
ABOVE NORMAL.  LOW LEVEL HEIGHT DIFFERENCES ARE NOT AS LARGE AS THE             
PAST FEW DAYS OVER THE REGION AND SUGGEST THAT WINDS WILL NOT BE AS             
AS STRONG TODAY.  THE FLOW ALOFT BACKS TONIGHT AND MUCH OF MONDAY               
IN ADVANCE OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE PACIFIC                   
NORTHWEST.  THE CURRENT UPPER LOW JUST OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST                 
WILL BE CAUGHT UP IN THE FLOW ALOFT AND FILL AS IT MOVES ACROSS                 
NEW MEXICO AND SOUTHERN COLORADO TONIGHT.  THAT WILL START SURFACE              
CYCLOGENESIS OVER EXTREME SOUTHEAST COLORADO.  A PACIFIC FRONT                  
ASSOCIATED WITH THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL ALSO                
MOVE ACROSS THE CWA TONIGHT.  BOUNDARY LAYER UPSLOPE WIND FLOW                  
WILL START LATER TONIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING AND MOISTURE WILL BE                
INCREASING IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE                   
TROUGH.  SNOW WILL DEVELOP FROM THE NORTHWEST PART OF THE CWA TO                
THE SOUTHEAST DURING THE DAY MONDAY.  THE SREF AND GFS SPREAD THE               
SNOW MORE QUICKLY SOUTHEAST THAN DOES THE NAM.  AT THIS TIME IT                 
LOOKS LIKE THE MORE SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL WILL BE MONDAY AFTERNOON               
AND EARLY MONDAY NIGHT.  THAT IS THE TIME FRAME WHERE THE MOISTURE              
IS DEEPEST AND THE BEST DYNAMICS AND SURFACE FORCING WILL BE OVER               
THE CWA.  HAVE INCREASED POPS AND SNOWFALL AMOUNTS DURING THAT                  
TIME WITH 2 TO 4 INCHES OVER MOST OF THE LOWER ELEVATIONS BY 12Z                
TUESDAY AND 5 TO 9 INCHES IN THE MOUNTAINS.  THOSE AMOUNTS GENERALLY            
FIT THE HPC GUIDANCE FOR THE CWA.  AT THIS TIME...WILL HOLD OFF ON              
THE ISSUANCE OF ANY HIGHLIGHTS FOR THIS QUICK SNOW EVENT.  THE                  
SNOWFALL WILL TAPER OFF FROM NORTH TO SOUTH AFTER 06Z TUESDAY AS THE            
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES EAST OF THE CWA AND THE SURFACE UPSLOPE                  
WEAKENS.  THE TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH COOLER MONDAY AND MONDAY                
NIGHT THAN THOSE OF TODAY AND TONIGHT.                                          
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM...NW FLOW WILL BE ALOFT OVER THE FORECAST AREA FROM TUES             
THROUGH THURSDAY AS A HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER RIDGE REMAINS ON THE WEST            
COAST.  VERY WINDY CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE AREA ON WED AND             
THUR.  MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE               
DURING THIS TIME PERIOD...WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW WEST OF THE              
LARAMIE RANGE.  WITH A BETTER CHANCE OF SNOW IN THE MOUNTAINS.  A               
SERIES OF DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE ACROSS THE CWA FRIDAY AS CYCLONIC              
FLOW OCCURS ALOFT DUE TO A BROAD UPPER TROUGH OVER MUCH OF THE U.S.             
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE CWA IN THE              
MORNING AND WILL MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA BY EVENING.  THIS                
WILL RESULT IN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW FOR MUCH OF THE AREA.  A                 
STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE CWA ON SAT AND                   
DEEP...MOIST UPSLOPE FLOW WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE FORECAST                        
AREA...RESULTING IN A CHANCE OF SNOW FOR THE CWA.  THE ECMWF IS                 
FARTHER WEST WITH THE UPPER TROUGH AND IS SLOWER TO BRING IT                    
EAST...WHICH WOULD RESULT IN LATER TIMING OF THE SYSTEM.  HIGH                  
TEMPERATURES WILL BE FROM 5 TO 8 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR TUES...5              
TO 8 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR WED AND THU...AND AROUND NORMAL FOR               
FRI AND SAT.                                                                    
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE OVER THE CWA THROUGH TONIGHT.                
WEST WINDS WILL GUST TO BETWEEN 25 AND 35 KNOTS ALONG AND WEST OF               
THE LARAMIE RANGE TODAY WITH WEAK MOUNTAIN WAVE ACTIVITY.  MVFR AND             
IFR CONDITIONS IN SNOW AND MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION WILL SPREAD FROM                
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST OVER THE CWA ON MONDAY AND CONTINUE FOR                  
MOST OF MONDAY NIGHT.                                                           
&&                                                                              
.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
WY...NONE.                                                                      
NE...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
WEILAND/KMD                                                                     
</pre> wy                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER CO                                              
330 AM MST SUN DEC 7 2008                                                       
.SHORT TERM...IN THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS...BAROMETRICALLY DRIVEN                 
CHINOOK WINDS IN AND NEAR THE BASE OF THE FRONT RANGE FOOTHILLS HAVE            
CONTINUED TO GUST TO AS HIGH AS 45 MPH...CENTERED JUST SOUTHWEST OF             
BOULDER. HAVE SEEN ONLY A SLIGHT DECREASE IN THE CROSS MTN PRESSURE             
GRADIENT SINCE 07Z. RUC AND NAM CROSS SECTIONS INDICATE THE PRESENCE            
OF A WELL DVLPD LEE SIDE MTN WAVE...NOW MARKED BY A GROWING ACSL                
CLOUD...FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT 3-6 HOURS. WOULD EXPECT TO SEE A                  
CONTINUATION OF THESE GUSTY AND ERRATIC DOWNSLOPE WINDS PRETTY MUCH             
IN THE SAME AREA THROUGH MID-MORNING. BY LATE MORNING...MODELS SHOW             
THE CROSS MTN P.G. WEAKENING AND THE AMPLITUDE THE MTN WAVE                     
DECREASING AS IT MOVES AWAY FROM THE FRONT RANGE TAKING WITH IT A               
PRETTY THICK WAVE CLOUD. THEREFORE SHOULD SEE CLEARING ALONG THE                
FRONT RANGE LATER THIS MORNING WHILE SKIES REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY                 
FARTHER EAST. THIS SHOULD PRODUCE A SHARP TEMPERATURE GRADIENT FROM             
WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE PLAINS...WITH WARMEST READINGS IN THE DENVER            
AREA AND COLDEST TEMPS ONCE AGAIN IN LOW LYING AREAS ALONG THE SOUTH            
PLATTE...CENTERED ALONG A GREELEY TO FORT MORGAN AXIS. COULD SEE AS             
MUCH AS A 25 DEG F DIFFERENCE IN MAX TEMPS BETWEEN THE TWO LOCALES.             
PREVIOUS FORECAST DEPICTED A SIMILAR ARRANGEMENT. IN THE HIGH                   
COUNTRY...SHOULD SEE INTERMITTENT CLOUD COVER AS POCKETS OF MID-                
LEVEL MOISTURE MOVED ALONG BY 45-60KT KT WLY FLOW ALOFT PASS OVER               
THE AREA. MAY SEE A FEW -SHSN UP ALONG THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE...                
BUT LITTLE IF ANY NEW ACCUMULATION AS MTN TOP STATIC STABILITY ONLY             
INCREASES THRU THE DAY.                                                         
BY TONIGHT...MODELS SHOW MID/HIGH-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE FLOWING            
UP FROM THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF A SHORTWAVE LOW TRACKING EWRD             
ACROSS ARIZONA. SOME OF THIS MOISTURE IS PROGGED TO REACH SWRN                  
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA SOMETIME AFTER 06Z/MON. EVEN THOUGH               
MOST OF THIS MOISTURE WILL RESIDE ABOVE MTN TOP LEVEL HAVE                      
INTRODUCED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF -SN TO THE HIGH MTN ZONES LATE                    
TONIGHT. ON THE PLAINS...THINGS REMAIN DRY OVERNIGHT. ALTHOUGH THE              
NAM SHOWS A SHALLOW SURGE OF MOISTURE WITH THE ONSET OF WEAK                    
ANTICYCLONIC UPSLOPE FLOW AFTER MIDNIGHT. THIS COULD RESULT IN AREAS            
OF STRATUS AND PSBLY SOME PATCHY FOG TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF DENVER            
TOWARDS DAWN.                                                                   
.LONG TERM....THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM IS GENERALLY ON TRACK TO EFFECT             
BOU CWA MONDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT BEFORE MOVING OUT OF THE REGION              
QUICKLY TUESDAY MORNING. THERE CONTINUE TO SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES              
BETWEEN THE GFS AND NAM...THOUGH EVEN THE LATEST GFS IS A BIT FASTER            
AND FAIRLY CLOSE TO THE NAM SOLUTION. INITIAL FRONTAL SURGE EXPECTED            
MIDDAY MONDAY AS SFC WINDS SHIFT AROUND NORTHEAST WHILE THE SURFACE             
LOW BEGINS TO STRENGTHEN ACROSS THE TEXAS PANHANDLE. PRECIP WILL BE             
DEVELOPING MON AFTN AND THERE MAY STILL BE A BRIEF TIME OF RAIN/SNOW            
MIX DURING THE AFTN BEFORE THE BIGGER PUSH OF COLD AIR MOVES IN.                
SECONDARY SURGE WITH THE COLDER AIR EXPECTED MONDAY EVENING AS SFC              
WINDS STRENGTHEN FROM THE NORTHEAST. UPSLOPE DEEPENS MON EVENING TO             
AROUND 600MB WITH MODEST ASCENT FROM VERTICAL VELOCITY FIELDS. BEST             
ASCENT WILL BE TO THE WEST AND SOUTH OF OUR AREA.                               
SO AS CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO RISE...WILL CONTINUE TO EDGE POPS                 
UPWARDS INTO HIGH LIKELY CATEGORY AS EARLY AS MONDAY AFTN AS THE                
TIMING AS QUICKENED A BIT SINCE EARLIER RUNS. EVENTUAL ADVISORY                 
HILITES MAY BE NEEDED WITH THIS SYSTEM...AND THE MAIN AREA OF                   
CONCERN WILL HAVE TO WATCH WILL BE THE SOUTHERN FRONT RANGE                     
FOOTHILLS AND ADJ PALMER DIVIDE. LOCAL SNOW MODEL YIELDED ADVISORY              
TYPE SNOW AMOUNTS FOR THE FOOTHILLS. NO HILITES AT THIS TIME.                   
THERE IS MORE POTENTIAL FOR SNOW LATER IN THE WEEK AND THRU NEXT                
WEEKEND AS A STRONG JET ALOFT MOVES INTO THE REGION. THIS IS ALREADY            
HANDLED IN THE GRIDS SO NO CHANGES IN THE OUT PERIODS.                          
$$                                                                              
.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT AT                 
DENVER AREA AIRPORTS. GUSTY WEST WINDS IN AND NEAR THE FOOTHILLS                
THIS MORNING COULD REACH DENVER INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT FROM TIME TO              
TIME. OTHERWISE EXPECT CLEARING LATER TODAY WITH UNSEASONABLY WARM              
TEMPERATURES. TONIGHT DRAINAGE WINDS IN THE EVENING EXPECTED TO                 
REVERSE TO A LIGHT NORTH-NORTHEAST FLOW WITH ARRIVAL OF A WEAK                  
FRONTAL SURGE AROUND 09Z/MONDAY. MAY SEE SOME LOW CLOUD WITH THIS               
SUBTLE WIND SHIFT.                                                              
&&                                                                              
.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                        
$$                                                                              
BAKER/ENTREKIN                                                                  
</pre> co                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA                                          
600 AM CST SUN DEC 7 2008                                                       
.UPDATED FOR THE 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...                                     
.SHORT TERM /TODAY/...                                                          
SFC RIDGE AXIS BEGINNING TO SHIFT EAST OF THE AREA...WITH HIGH                  
CLOUDS SPREADING EASTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL CWA AHEAD OF THE WARM                
FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE NEXT WAVE DIVING SOUTHEAST FROM THE                   
CANADIAN ROCKIES. BEST LIFT WITH THIS WAVE AS IT DIVES SOUTHEASTWARD            
THROUGH SRN MN/NRN IA THIS MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON WILL MAINLY              
BE NORTH OF HWY 20. GFS/NAM/RUC IN DISAGREEMENT REGARDING AMOUNT OF             
MOISTURE/QPF WITH THE NAM/RUC ADVERTISING ONLY A FEW HUNDREDTHS                 
ACROSS THE NORTHERN CWA VERSUS JUST OVER A TENTH WITH THE GFS.                  
SOUNDINGS INDICATING BRIEF SATURATION...WITH PROBABLY AROUND A FEW              
HOURS OF LIGHT SNOW AT MOST LOCATIONS NORTH OF I-80. OTHERWISE MAYBE            
ONLY A BRIEF SNOW SHOWER OR FLURRIES EXPECTED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN               
CWA. PREVIOUS FORECAST MORE IN LINE WITH THE GFS...BUT LOOKING AT               
TRENDS UPSTREAM FEEL THE GFS MAY BE A BIT OVERDONE. THEREFORE HAVE              
TRENDED GRIDS SLIGHTLY TOWARD THE NAM/RUC BY LOWERING POPS ACROSS               
THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA AND CUTTING THE QPF DOWN BY 30 TO 40               
PERCENT. COULD STILL SEE AROUND AN INCH ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER                
COUNTIES...TAPERING TO A FEW TENTHS AROUND HWY 30 TO AROUND A TRACE             
FURTHER SOUTH. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS DID SHOW A BRIEF PERIOD OF FZDZ AS              
THE SNOW TAPERED OFF AND SATURATION WAS LOST ALOFT. HOWEVER THIS WAS            
QUITE BRIEF ONLY AROUND AN HOUR OR SO...SO LEFT PRECIP TYPE ALL SNOW            
FOR NOW.                                                                        
.LONG TERM /TONIGHT-SATURDAY/...                                                
WILL HAVE ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE TRANSLATING OVER SOUTHERN IOWA                 
TONIGHT WITH BAND OF WARM ADVECTION AND MID LEVEL FRONTOGENETICAL               
FORCING. MODELS DIFFER ON AREA THAT RECEIVES LIGHT PRECIP...SO                  
WENT WITH ONLY LOW CHANCES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OR SO.                      
OTHERWISE MAIN CONCERN FOR THIS FORECAST PACKAGE IS SIGNIFICANT                 
SYSTEM FOR MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. THE ECMWF/UKMET/CANADIAN                   
SOLUTIONS ARE PREFERRED FOR THIS PERIOD GIVEN THEIR CONSISTENCY.                
UNFORTUNATELY THE NAM/SREF AND TO A CERTAIN EXTENT THE GFS/GEFS                 
ARE NOT EXACTLY GOING THE SAME DIRECTION...SO CONFIDENCE IS NOT AS              
HIGH AS I`D LIKE. HOWEVER...SINCE OUR FORECAST IS LEANING STRONGLY              
TO THE FIRST SET OF MODELS MENTIONED ABOVE...WILL NEED TO ISSUE A               
WINTER STORM WATCH FOR A STRIP OF COUNTIES SW TO NE THROUGH                     
CENTRAL IOWA. EVEN AFTER TAKING A BLEND OF THE GFS/HPC/ECMWF QPF                
FOR THIS PERIOD...STILL CAME OUT WITH 4 TO 8 INCHES OF SNOW FOR                 
MUCH OF OUR AREA. THAT SEEMS A BIT MUCH FOR THE UNCERTAINTY THAT                
STILL EXISTS...BUT I AM IN COLLABORATION WITH NEIGHBORS.                        
AS LOW PRESSURE ORGANIZES IN THE SOUTHERN PLAINS                                
MONDAY...FRONTOGENETICAL FORCES AND ISENTROPIC LIFT BEGIN OVER                  
IOWA...AND MAY YIELD LIGHT PRECIP. SOUTHERN IOWA SHOULD BE ABOVE                
FREEZING DURING THE DAY MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. SO AS THE SYSTEM              
APPROACHES...RAIN WILL BE THE DOMINATE P-TYPE ALONG AND SOUTH OF                
I-80. HOWEVER...AS THE LOW INTENSIFIES AND WRAPS IN THE COLDER AIR              
TO THE NORTH...ALONG WITH DYNAMIC PROCESSES IN THE TROWAL AND                   
DEFORMATION ZONE TO THE NORTH OF SFC LOW TRACK...PRECIP SHOULD                  
TRANSITION TO ALL SNOW MONDAY NIGHT NW TO SE. SOUNDINGS DON`T OFFER             
MUCH CHANCE FOR ANYTHING OTHER THAN RAIN OR SNOW. HOWEVER...THERE IS            
STILL A POSSIBILITY OF A LITTLE FREEZING RAIN IF COLDER SFC AIR                 
WORKS ITS WAY IN BEFORE THE UPPER LEVELS COOL ENOUGH. AT THIS TIME              
THOUGH SOUNDINGS SUPPORT MORE OF A RAIN TO SNOW TRANSITION WHERE IT             
STARTS AS RAIN. AM USING SNOW RATIOS AT OR BELOW CLIMO FOR                      
NOW...GIVEN UNCERTAINTIES OF WHERE ANY HEAVIER BANDED SNOW MAY SET              
UP.                                                                             
EVEN IF SNOWFALL AMOUNTS DO NOT REACH WARNING CRITERIA ALONE...THE              
WIND WILL BE INCREASING ENOUGH TO WARRANT A WINTER STORM WATCH.                 
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE SUSTAINED BETWEEN 20 AND 30 MPH WITH                   
GUSTS POTENTIALLY CLOSE TO 35 OR 40 MPH AT TIMES. AND THIS BRINGS               
US DANGEROUSLY CLOSE TO BLIZZARD CONDITIONS. BUT...GIVEN SOME                   
UNCERTAINTY THERE...WE WILL JUST MENTION THE WIND AND BLOWING SNOW              
POTENTIAL IN THE WINTER STORM WATCH. ALSO...BEING THE FIRST WINTER              
STORM THREAT OF THE SEASON...WE WILL LOWER OUR THRESHOLD A BIT.                 
THE SNOW SHOULD END TUESDAY EVENING IF NOT BEFORE...BUT CONTINUE                
TO BLOW AROUND WELL INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. AN ACTIVE PATTERN DOES NOT              
SLOW DOWN...WITH A COUPLE OF CLIPPER SYSTEMS FOR LATE IN THE                    
WEEK...EACH WITH RESPECTABLE CHANCES FOR LIGHT SNOW IN OUR AREA.                
TEMPS WERE ADJUSTED DOWNWARD FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK GIVEN                   
TREND IN THE MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE.                                             
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...07/12Z                                                              
VFR CIGS...WILL GRADUALLY LOWER THIS MORNING AS BANDS OF LIGHT SNOW             
MOVE THROUGH THE CWA ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER WAVE DROPPING                     
SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS/MINNESOTA. VSBYS REDUCTIONS               
FROM LIGHT SNOW SHOULD MAINLY IMPACT THE NORTHERN 3 TAF SITES WHERE             
MVFR/MARGINAL IFR VSBYS ARE EXPECTED FOR A FEW HOURS IN HEAVIER                 
BANDS. CIGS SHOULD STAY IN THE IFR/LOW MVFR RANGE WITHIN THE BANDS              
OF SNOW AS WELL. EXPECT LOW CLOUDS TO CLEAR OUT BEHIND THE SYSTEM               
WITH SOME HIGH CLOUDS MOVING BACK IN TONIGHT FROM THE SOUTH. MODELS             
INDICATING POSSIBILITY OF SOME LOW CLOUDS STICKING AROUND...BUT ATTM            
HAVE ONLY HIGHLIGHTED WITH A SCT DECK. ALSO A WEAK DISTURBANCE                  
TRAVELING ACROSS SRN IA LATE TONIGHT...MAY BRING SOME LOW CLOUDS AND            
PATCHY FZDZ TO KOTM. UNCERTAINTY QUITE HIGH WITH THIS...SO HAVE LEFT            
OUT OF THE TAF ATTM.                                                            
&&                                                                              
.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM MONDAY EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON                
FOR ADAIR-ADAMS-AUDUBON-BLACK HAWK-BOONE-BREMER-BUTLER-CALHOUN-                 
CARROLL-CASS-CERRO GORDO-CLARKE-DALLAS-FRANKLIN-GREENE-GRUNDY-                  
GUTHRIE-HAMILTON-HARDIN-JASPER-MADISON-MARSHALL-POLK-POWESHIEK-                 
RINGGOLD-STORY-TAMA-TAYLOR-UNION-WARREN-WEBSTER-WRIGHT.                         
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHORT TERM/AVIATION...ALBRECHT                                                  
LONG TERM...MOYER                                                               
</pre> ia                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS                                            
441 AM MST SUN DEC 7 2008                                                       
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
246 AM MST SUN DEC 7 2008                                                       
NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BECOME ZONAL TONIGHT AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY DIGS               
SOUTH ACROSS WESTERN UTAH. FLOW THEN BECOMES SOUTHWEST ON MONDAY                
AS THE TROUGH MOVES EAST OF THE ROCKIES. FLOW IS NORTHWEST ON                   
TUESDAY. A SURFACE TROUGH OVER EASTERN COLORADO TODAY WILL MOVE                 
INTO THE OKLAHOMA/TEXAS PANHANDLE REGION TONIGHT/MONDAY. HIGH                   
PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO NORTHWEST KANSAS MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH                  
TUESDAY.                                                                        
THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUES ARE PRECIPITATION TYPE AND WIND.                       
TIMING OF THE EVENT LOOKS ON TRACK WITH UPWARD VERTICAL VELOCITIES              
INDICATED MONDAY AFTERNOON...CONTINUING MONDAY NIGHT AND ENDING                 
AROUND 12Z TUESDAY. THE CURRENT FORECAST KEEPS THE EVENT ABOUT 6                
HOURS PAST THIS TIME. 1000-500MB THICKNESSES FROM THE GFS/NAM                   
SUGGEST THAT PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE LIQUID THROUGH MOST OF MONDAY              
AFTERNOON EXCEPT IN THE NORTHWEST ZONES. BY MONDAY EVENING                      
PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE ALL SNOW OVER THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE                 
FORECAST AREA WITH ONLY THE SOUTHEAST ZONES HAVING A MIX OF                     
RAIN/SNOW. THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA SHOULD HAVE ALL SNOW BY 06Z                 
TUESDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE EVENT. THE NEXT ISSUE IS WIND WHICH              
THE RUC SHOWS TO BE A SIGNIFICANT CONCERN WITH THIS EVENT. BY 09Z               
TUESDAY SURFACE WIND IS PROGGED TO BE SUSTAINED AT GREATER THAN                 
30KTS AND WIND GUSTS GREATER THAN 40KTS. THIS WILL CAUSE SIGNIFICANT            
BLOWING AND DRIFTING OF ANY SNOW. MOST OF THE SNOW SHOULD END BY 12Z            
TUESDAY BUT THIS STRONG WIND SHOULD LAST WELL INTO TUESDAY                      
AFTERNOON. CURRENT FORECAST ALREADY HAS AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW FOR               
THIS TIME PERIOD. A WINTER HIGHLIGHT MAY BE NEEDED IF MODELS                    
CONTINUE TO SHOW THIS MUCH WIND. FOR NOW PLAN TO CONTINUE WORDING IN            
THE HWO FOR THIS POTENTIAL. SNOWFALL AMOUNTS STILL LOOK LIKE 1 TO 3             
INCHES WITH HEAVIEST AMOUNTS OVER THE CENTRAL AND EAST ZONES.                   
TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE UNSEASONABLY WARM. GUIDANCE SHOWING                  
READINGS ABOUT 20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. FOLLOWED COOLER GUIDANCE                
BASED ON UNCERTAINTY WITH AMOUNT OF CLOUDS. COLD FRONT WILL COME                
THROUGH TONIGHT. MAX TEMPERATURES WILL REACH INTO THE LOWER 40S                 
MONDAY AND IN THE UPPER 30S TUESDAY. MIN TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO            
THE MID 20S TONIGHT AND AROUND 20 MONDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHTS.                    
FS                                                                              
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
437 AM MST SUN DEC 7 2008                                                       
FOR THE 12Z TAF...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AT               
BOTH KGLD AND KMCK WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS. WILL SEE A GENERALLY          
BROKEN MID LEVEL CLOUD DECK CENTERED AROUND 20-25K FT AGL THROUGH               
THE TAF CYCLE.                                                                  
FOLTZ                                                                           
&&                                                                              
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
KS...NONE.                                                                      
NE...NONE.                                                                      
CO...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</pre> ks                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME                                             
1052 AM EST SUN DEC 7 2008                                                      
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
LOW PRESSURE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WILL TRACK NORTH ACROSS                 
NOVA SCOTIA AND INTENSIFY TODAY. THE LOW WILL CONTINUE TOWARD                   
LABRADOR TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST ON                  
MONDAY AND SLIDE SOUTH OF THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT. INTENSIFYING                 
LOW PRESSURE LIFTING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES WILL PULL A WARM                   
FRONT TOWARD THE AREA ON TUESDAY AND NORTH ACROSS THE STATE                     
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL FOLLOW                   
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.                                                                
&&                                                                              
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...                                                 
PRIMARY CONCERN IS ADDITIONAL BANDING SNOW OVER WASHINGTON COUNTY.              
WILL FOCUS ON RUC13 AND CARWRF WHICH ARE BEST SUITED TO HANDLE                  
THIS TYPE OF EVENT.                                                             
OBSERVATIONS THIS MORNING SHOW LOCAL REPORTS UP TO 10 INCHES OVER               
PORTIONS OF WASHINGTON COUNTY. PRIMARY CONCERN IS RUC13 SUGGESTING              
ADDITIONAL BANDING SNOW OVER SAME PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA.                 
RUC13 BUFKIT ALSO INDICATING STRONG OMEGA. WITH SUBSTANTIAL                     
AMOUNTS ALREADY ON GROUND AND MORE BANDING INDICATED HAVE OPTED                 
TO ISSUE WINTER STORM WARNING FOR SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF FORECAST                
AREA BASED ON 24 HOUR TOTALS. HAVE INITIALIZED QPF WITH 12Z/RUC13               
WITH SOME MANUAL ADJUSTMENTS. SNOW GRIDS GENERATED ON QPF GRIDS                 
BASED ON 10:1 RATIO.                                                            
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 15-25 MPH LATER THIS AFTERNOON                
AND CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT. GUSTS OF UP 35 MPH IN SOME LOCATIONS                 
WILL LEAD TO BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW. DAYCREW WILL NEED TO                    
MONITOR THINGS AND DECIDED WHETHER TO EXTEND OR NOT.                            
THE SNOW WILL GRADUALLY WIND DOWN OVERNIGHT W/THE FAR NORTHERN                  
AREAS HANGING ONTO SOME LINGERING SNOW W/THE COLD NW FLOW COMING                
OFF THE ST. LAWRENCE. WINDS AND CLOUDS WILL KEEP TEMPS FROM                     
DROPPING TOO FAR. USED THE GMOS NUMBERS AND RAISED THEM UP A FEW                
DEGS DUE TO THE CLOUDS AND WIND.                                                
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...                                         
INTENSE LOW PRESSURE OVER EASTERN CANADA WILL BRING STRONG GUSTY                
COLD WINDS MONDAY MORNING. BLOWING SNOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS AREAS              
THAT HAD SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL. WINDS WILL DIMINISH LATE MONDAY INTO             
MONDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH OF THE REGION. COLD AIR              
IN PLACE AND LIGHT WINDS MONDAY NIGHT WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO DROP                  
INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS IN MANY AREAS. HIGH PRESSURE SLIDING                     
SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA COMBINED WITH LOW PRESSURE LIFTING THROUGH                
THE MIDWEST WILL PULL A WARM FRONT TOWARD THE AREA ON TUESDAY                   
SPREADING SNOW FROM SOUTH TO NORTH OVER THE REGION. SNOW SHOULD                 
CHANGE TO RAIN ALONG THE DOWNEAST COAST LATE TUESDAY AS WARMER                  
AIR BEGINS SURGING IN FROM THE OCEAN.                                           
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...                                  
SNOW SHOULD CHANGE TO RAIN DOWNEAST LATE TUESDAY AND ACROSS THE                 
REST OF THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT AS MUCH WARMER AIR SURGES NORTH.                 
THE LOW LIFTING TO OUR WEST ON WEDNESDAY SHOULD THEN BRING STRONG               
SOUTH WINDS...RAIN AND TEMPS RISING INTO THE 50S DOWNEAST AND 40S               
OVER THE NORTH. A WIND ADVISORY AND POSSIBLY WARNING MAY BE NEEDED              
FOR DOWNEAST AREAS. A POWERFUL COLD FRONT WILL FOLLOW TUESDAY                   
NIGHT BRINGING A RETURN TO COLDER CONDITIONS. THE GFS AND ECMWF                 
ARE THEN INDICATING THAT A SECONDARY WAVE SWINGING UP FROM THE                  
SOUTHEAST MAY TRACK ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AS THE FRONT STALLS              
TO OUR EAST...AND POSSIBLY BRING SNOW ON THURSDAY TO EASTERN AREAS.             
FOR NOW ONLY GOING CHANCE SNOW NORTH AND LIKELY DOWNEAST ON                     
THURSDAY WITH CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY ABOUT THIS SCENARIO. THE                 
END OF THE WEEK SHOULD THEN BE DRY AND COOL.                                    
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION /16Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...                                      
MVFR FOR DOWNEAST AND THE COAST AT TIMES TODAY W/IMPROVING                      
CONDITIONS TONIGHT. IFR/MVFR ACROSS THE NORTH TODAY INTO THIS                   
EVENING.                                                                        
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL                 
BE FOLLOWED BY IFR CONDITIONS TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY AS A SERIES              
OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS AFFECTS THE AREA.                                       
&&                                                                              
.MARINE...                                                                      
NEAR TERM: AS MENTIONED BELOW A GALE WARNING IS UP. EXPECT THE                  
WINDS TO COME ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE LOW LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND               
THEN KICK TO GALE FORCE THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT. BLENDED THE                  
NAM12 AND GFS W/SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO THE EASTERN SECTIONS THIS                   
MORNING AS WINDS WERE A BIT STRONGER THAN THE GUIDANCE AT                       
INITIALIZATION. DECIDED ON GUSTS HITTING 40 KT TONIGHT AS COLD NW               
FLOW COMES OVER THE WATERS. USED THE GFSSWAN TO START THE SEAS                  
OUT AS THEY WERE UP TO 6-7 FT AND THEN BLENDED THE WNAWAVE4 WHICH               
SHOWS SEAS FALL BACK THIS MORNING AND THEN BUILD AGAIN LATER THIS               
AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT.                                                         
SHORT TERM: A GALE WARNING WILL BE IN EFFECT SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH               
MONDAY FOR STRONG GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS BEHIND THE LOW MOVING                   
NORTH THROUGH THE MARITIMES. WINDS WILL RAPIDLY DIMINISH MONDAY                 
EVENING. WINDS WILL THEN INCREASE TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT                    
LIKELY REACHING A STRONG GALE ON WEDNESDAY AND AN EXTENSIVE SOUTH               
FETCH WILL BUILD SEAS TO NEAR 20 FT BY LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO                
THURSDAY.                                                                       
&&                                                                              
.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
ME...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MEZ002-            
     005-006-011-016-029.                                                       
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MEZ017-               
     030-032.                                                                   
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM EST MONDAY FOR             
     ANZ050>052.                                                                
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
NEAR TERM...HEWITT/MIGNONE                                                      
SHORT TERM...BLOOMER                                                            
LONG TERM...BLOOMER                                                             
AVIATION...HEWITT/MIGNONE                                                       
MARINE...HEWITT/MIGNONE/BLOOMER                                                 
</pre> me                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
952 AM EST SUN DEC 7 2008                                                       
.UPDATE...                                                                      
LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS OVER EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR HAVE BROKEN UP              
QUITE A BIT OVER THE PAST TWO HOURS...DUE TO A COMBINATION OF WIND              
SHEAR IN THE MIXED LAYER SEEN ON THE KMQT VAD WIND PROFILE AND DRY              
AIR FLOWING ACROSS. THEREFORE...WENT AHEAD AND CANCELLED THE WARNING            
FOR ALGER AND NORTHERN SCHOOLCRAFT COUNTIES EARLY. REST OF THE                  
FORECAST FOR TODAY IS IN GOOD SHAPE. MAIN CONCERN THIS AFTERNOON                
WILL BE TO WATCH THE POSITION OF THE FORECAST LAKE EFFECT BAND OFF              
LAKE MICHIGAN. 06Z RUNS SUGGESTED THAT THE BAND MAY IMPACT MOSTLY               
MACKINAC COUNTY TONIGHT...THEN SHIFT WESTWARD ON MONDAY AS THE FLOW             
BACKS MORE SOUTHERLY. IF THIS OCCURS...THEN THE WATCH MAY OR MAY NOT            
PAN OUT...ESPECIALLY IF THE BAND KEEPS MOVING AS SUGGESTED BY THE               
06Z NAM.                                                                        
&&                                                                              
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
COLD UPPER TROUGH WITH H85 TEMPS -15C TO -20C REMAINS IN PLACE FM               
HUDSON BAY INTO THE UPR GREAT LAKES. PRIMARY COLD FRONT IS MOVING               
INTO THE LWR GREAT LAKES AND DIVING INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. NW                
FLOW AND THE COLD TEMPS BEHIND THE FRONT IS PRODUCING MOSTLY                    
MULTIPLE LK EFFECT SNOW BANDS. IR SATELLITE AND RADAR INDICATES                 
HEAVIEST SNOW SHOWERS INTO ALGER COUNTY AND NRN DELTA COUNTY. THIS              
BAND IS STRONGEST DUE TO PRECONDITIONED FLOW OFF LK NIPIGON AND ALSO            
SINCE THE TRAJECTORIES ARE CROSSING THE LONGEST AVAILABLE FETCH                 
ACROSS LK SUPERIOR. MEANWHILE...DRY AIR AND INVERSION BLO H9                    
ASSOCIATED WITH INCOMING SFC RIDGE AND AS SEEN ON 00Z INL/WPL                   
SOUNDINGS...IS LIMITING EXTENT OF LK EFFECT OVR WRN CWA.                        
&&                                                                              
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
ALTHOUGH WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED...LK EFFECT STILL AN ISSUE TODAY AS              
SFC-925MB WINDS STAY NW. EFFECTS OF THE DRY AIR/SUBSIDENCE SEEN                 
UPSTREAM WILL BE OFFSET FOR SNOW SHOWERS EAST OF MARQUETTE AS                   
LOW-LEVEL TRAJECTORIES CROSS LK SUPERIOR THE LONGEST. INVERSION                 
HEIGHT BTWN 5-7KFT AND IDEAL TEMPS WITHIN CLOUD LAYER FOR DENDRITIC             
SNOW GROWTH ENSURES THAT LK EFFECT WILL BE SUFFICIENT AT PRODUCING              
ACCUMS DESPITE NEGATIVE LARGE SCALE FACTORS. BY FAR BEST SNOW WILL              
BE IN SNOWBAND PRECONDITIONED BY LK NIPIGON. MAJORITY OF HIGH RES               
GUIDANCE...NAM/REG CANADIAN/RUC13/LOCAL WRF POINT TO HEAVIEST SNOW              
TO REMAIN IN ALGER/NRN SCHOOLCRAFT AREAS. KEPT WINTER STORM WARNING             
FOR THESE TWO ZONES GIVEN THAT STRONG BAND IS STILL OUT THERE AND               
SNOWFALL RATES UP TO 1"/HR ARE STILL POSSIBLE. OTHERWISE...CANX REST            
OF THE GOING HEADLINES. 925MB WIND FIELD BECOMES DISORGANIZED AFT               
21Z TODAY...AND BY THAT TIME SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD DIMINISH/LIFT                  
OFFSHORE. ELSEWHERE...AS WINDS BACK WITH RIDGE THROUGH HERE...THERE             
COULD BE SOME SUNSHINE. TEMPS WILL REMAIN CHILLY THOUGH WITH MAINLY             
TEENS EXPECTED.                                                                 
SHEARED OUT UPPER WAVE WITH SWATH OF DEEP MOISTURE SWINGS ACROSS UPR            
LAKES. GFS/NAM/LOCAL WRF SIMILAR IN HANDLING THE SYSTEM. ISENTROPIC             
LIFT ON 280K SFC...ROUGHLY 800-700MB...SHOWS STRONGEST LIFT                     
OCCURRING ALONG SW BORDER INTO LK MICHIGAN. KEPT HIGHEST POPS CLOSER            
TO WI BORDER...WITH JUST CHANCE POPS CLOSER TO LK SUPERIOR AS SW                
LOW-LEVEL FLOW MAINLY DOWNSLOPES. UP TO AN INCH OF SNOW NEAR THE WI             
BORDER. MAIN ISSUE WILL BE IN SE CWA NEAR LK MICHIGAN. 925MB WINDS              
BECOME VERY FAVORABLE FOR LK EFFECT OFF LK MICHIGAN INTO SRN                    
SCHOOLCRAFT INTO SRN PORTION OF LUCE COUNTY AFT MIDNIGHT AND INTO               
MONDAY. H85 TEMPS -13C WITH DEEP MOISTURE ADDED FM THE SYSTEM MOVING            
IN FM THE WEST YIELD MORE THAN SUFFICIENT OVER WATER INSTABILITY                
ALTHOUGH EXACT AREA OF HEAVIEST SNOW IS UNCERTAIN. SINCE THE HIGH               
PRESSURE RIDGE LINGERS OVR LWR MICHIGAN AND ONTARIO...INTERACTING               
LAND BREEZES ENHANCE LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE. HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS              
FCST A DOMINANT BAND OVR FAR SE CWA...BUT VARY ON EXACT PLACEMENT.              
WILL SAY THAT THE RUC13 SHOWING A STRONG LAND BREEZE EMERGING FM LWR            
MI...AND SETTING UP THE BAND AS FAR WEST AS DELTA COUNTY WAS NOT                
PREFERRED AS SWRLY 925MB WINDS SHOULD PIN THE LAND BREEZE CLOSER TO             
THE LWR MI SHORE. IN ANY EVENT...COULD SEE WARNING CRITERIA SNOWFALL            
OVR FAR SE CWA FM THIS BAND OF LK EFFECT SO ISSUED A LAKE EFFECT                
SNOW WATCH FOR LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MOST OF MONDAY FOR SOUTHERN                 
SCHOOLCRAFT INTO LUCE.                                                          
OUTSIDE OF LK EFFECT OFF LK MICHIGAN...MONDAY FEATURES LGT SNOW                 
MAINLY AFFECTING THE WI BORDER AREAS DUE TO UPPER LEVEL JET FORCING             
AND PERSISTENT ISENTROPIC ASCENT ON 280K SFC. NW LOW-LEVEL WINDS AND            
H85 TEMPS BLO -10C COULD ALSO PRODUCE LGT LK EFFECT OVR NW UPR MI.              
NEXT ISSUE IS LOW PRESSURE EMERGING FM THE PLAINS LATER TUE. ECMWF              
WAS MOST EMPHATIC WITH THIS SYSTEM LAST COUPLE DAYS...AND OTHER                 
GUIDANCE NOW LOOKS LIKE IT IS TRENDING THIS WAY. ECMWF IDEA WOULD               
BRUSH FAR SOUTH CENTRAL...BASICALLY SRN MNM COUNTY...WITH WIDESPREAD            
SNOW LATE MON NIGHT THROUGH TUE NIGHT. PRIMARY SYSTEM SNOW SHOULD               
STAY SOUTH OF CWA...BUT ADVY MAY BE NEEDED IN THE SCNTRL. NRLY FLOW             
OVR LK SUPERIOR WITH COOLING WILL LEAD TO LK EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS                
INCREASING IN THE TUE/WED PERIOD.                                               
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION (FOR THE 12Z TAF ISSUANCE)...                                         
EXPECT SC CIGS TO GRDLY ERODE THIS AFTN WITH ARRIVAL OF HI PRES RDG/            
DRY AIRMASS FM THE W THAT IS SHOWN ON 00Z INL RAOB. MVFR CIGS WL                
PERSIST THE LONGEST AT CMX WITH FVRBL UPSLOPE WLY WIND COMPONENT.               
CLDS WL THICKEN WITH CIGS FALLING TO HI END MVFR RANGE WITH APRCH OF            
WEAK LO PRES TROF TNGT. SINCE THE BEST DYNAMICS LOOK TO PASS TO THE             
S...SUSPECT THE ANTECEDENT DRY AIRMASS WL NOT SATURATE SUFFICIENTLY             
FOR ANY SGNFT SN/VSBY RESTRICTION AT EITHER SAW OR CMX.                         
&&                                                                              
.MARINE (FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)...                       
AS A LOW PRESSURE CENTER OVER SOUTHEAST CANADA CONTINUES TO THE EAST            
TODAY...A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL MIGRATE ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT               
LAKES BY THIS EVENING AND INTO NEW ENGLAND BY LATE MONDAY. STRONG N             
WINDS EARLY TODAY WILL DIMINISH QUICKLY AS THIS RIDGE APPROACHES. IN            
THE WAKE OF THE RIDGE...EXPECT A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH TO DRIFT OVER              
LAKE SUPERIOR ON MONDAY NIGHT. ONCE THIS TROUGH PUSHES TO THE EAST              
ON TUESDAY...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER MISSOURI WILL MOVE NORTHEAST            
ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AND TO THE ST LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY BY             
EARLY WEDNESDAY. NORTH WINDS ON THE NORTHERN FLANK OF THIS LOW TRACK            
MAY REACH 30 KNOTS OVER CENTRAL AND EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR ON TUESDAY            
AND TUESDAY NIGHT. A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL FOLLOW ACROSS THE                 
UPPER GREAT LAKES ON WEDNESDAY BEFORE ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM               
MOVES EAST FROM THE PLAINS TO NEAR UPPER MICHIGAN ON THURSDAY.                  
RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS WILL PREVAIL ON THESE TWO DAYS.                          
&&                                                                              
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
UPPER MICHIGAN...                                                               
  LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY                       
    AFTERNOON FOR MIZ007-014.                                                   
LAKE SUPERIOR...NONE.                                                           
LAKE MICHIGAN...NONE.                                                           
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
UPDATE...AJ                                                                     
SYNOPSIS/DISCUSSION...JLA                                                       
AVIATION...KC                                                                   
MARINE...KC                                                                     
</pre> mi                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
625 AM EST SUN DEC 7 2008                                                       
UPDATED FOR 12Z TAF ISSUANCE                                                    
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
COLD UPPER TROUGH WITH H85 TEMPS -15C TO -20C REMAINS IN PLACE FM               
HUDSON BAY INTO THE UPR GREAT LAKES. PRIMARY COLD FRONT IS MOVING               
INTO THE LWR GREAT LAKES AND DIVING INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. NW                
FLOW AND THE COLD TEMPS BEHIND THE FRONT IS PRODUCING MOSTLY                    
MULTIPLE LK EFFECT SNOW BANDS. IR SATELLITE AND RADAR INDICATES                 
HEAVIEST SNOW SHOWERS INTO ALGER COUNTY AND NRN DELTA COUNTY. THIS              
BAND IS STRONGEST DUE TO PRECONDITIONED FLOW OFF LK NIPEGON AND ALSO            
SINCE THE TRAJECTORIES ARE CROSSING THE LONGEST AVIALIABLE FETCH                
ACROSS LK SUPERIOR. MEANWHILE...DRY AIR AND INVERSION BLO H9                    
ASSOCIATED WITH INCOMING SFC RIDGE AND AS SEEN ON 00Z INL/WPL                   
SOUNDINGS...IS LIMITING EXTENT OF LK EFFECT OVR WRN CWA.                        
&&                                                                              
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
ALTHOUGH WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED...LK EFFECT STILL AN ISSUE TODAY AS              
SFC-925MB WINDS STAY NW. EFFECTS OF THE DRY AIR/SUBSIDENCE SEEN                 
UPSTREAM WILL BE OFFSET FOR SNOW SHOWERS EAST OF MARQUETTE AS                   
LOW-LEVEL TRAJECTORIES CROSS LK SUPERIOR THE LONGEST. INVERSION                 
HEIGHT BTWN 5-7KFT AND IDEAL TEMPS WITHIN CLOUD LAYER FOR DENDRETIC             
SNOW GROWTH ENSURES THAT LK EFFECT WILL BE SUFFICIENT AT PRODUCING              
ACCUMS DESPITE NEGATIVE LARGE SCALE FACTORS. BY FAR BEST SNOW WILL              
BE IN SNOWBAND PRECONDITIONED BY LK NIPEGON. MAJORITY OF HIGH RES               
GUIDANCE...NAM/REG CANADIAN/RUC13/LOCAL WRF POINT TO HEAVIEST SNOW              
TO REMAIN IN ALGER/NRN SCHOOLCRAFT AREAS. KEPT WINTER STORM WARNING             
FOR THESE TWO ZONES GIVEN THAT STRONG BAND IS STILL OUT THERE AND               
SNOWFALL RATES UP TO 1"/HR ARE STILL POSSIBLE. OTHERWISE...CANX REST            
OF THE GOING HEADLINES. 925MB WIND FIELD BECOMES DISORGANIZED AFT               
21Z TODAY...AND BY THAT TIME SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD DIMINISH/LIFT                  
OFFSHORE. ELSEWHERE...AS WINDS BACK WITH RIDGE THROUGH HERE...THERE             
COULD BE SOME SUNSHINE. TEMPS WILL REMAIN CHILLY THOUGH WITH MAINLY             
TEENS EXPECTED.                                                                 
SHEARED OUT UPPER WAVE WITH SWATH OF DEEP MOISTURE SWINGS ACROSS UPR            
LAKES. GFS/NAM/LOCAL WRF SIMILAR IN HANDLING THE SYSTEM. ISENTROPIC             
LIFT ON 280K SFC...ROUGHLY 800-700MB...SHOWS STRONGEST LIFT OCCURING            
ALONG SW BORDER INTO LK MICHIGAN. KEPT HIGHEST POPS CLOSER TO WI                
BORDER...WITH JUST CHANCE POPS CLOSER TO LK SUPERIOR AS SW LOW-LEVEL            
FLOW MAINLY DOWNSLOPES. UP TO AN INCH OF SNOW NEAR THE WI BORDER.               
MAIN ISSUE WILL BE IN SE CWA NEAR LK MICHIGAN. 925MB WINDS BECOME               
VERY FAVORABLE FOR LK EFFECT OFF LK MICHIGAN INTO SRN SCHOOLCRAFT               
INTO SRN PORTION OF LUCE COUNTY AFT MIDNIGHT AND INTO MONDAY. H85               
TEMPS -13C WITH DEEP MOISTURE ADDED FM THE SYSTEM MOVING IN FM THE              
WEST YIELD MORE THAN SUFFICIENT OVER WATER INSTABILITY ALTHOUGH                 
EXACT AREA OF HEAVIEST SNOW IS UNCERTAIN. SINCE THE HIGH PRESSURE               
RIDGE LINGERS OVR LWR MICHIGAN AND ONTARIO...INTERACTING LAND                   
BREEZES ENHANCE LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE. HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS FCST A            
DOMINANT BAND OVR FAR SE CWA...BUT VARY ON EXACT PLACEMENT. WILL SAY            
THAT THE RUC13 SHOWING A STRONG LAND BREEZE EMERGING FM LWR MI...AND            
SETTING UP THE BAND AS FAR WEST AS DELTA COUNTY WAS NOT PREFERRED AS            
SWRLY 925MB WINDS SHOULD PIN THE LAND BREEZE CLOSER TO THE LWR MI               
SHORE. IN ANY EVENT...COULD SEE WARNING CRITERIA SNOWFALL OVR FAR SE            
CWA FM THIS BAND OF LK EFFECT SO ISSUED A LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH FOR            
LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MOST OF MONDAY FOR SOUTHERN SCHOOLCRAFT INTO               
LUCE.                                                                           
OUTSIDE OF LK EFFECT OFF LK MICHIGAN...MONDAY FEATURES LGT SNOW                 
MAINLY AFFECTING THE WI BORDER AREAS DUE TO UPPER LEVEL JET FORCING             
AND PERSISTENT ISENTROPIC ASCENT ON 280K SFC. NW LOW-LEVEL WINDS AND            
H85 TEMPS BLO -10C COULD ALSO PRODUCE LGT LK EFFECT OVR NW UPR MI.              
NEXT ISSUE IS LOW PRESSURE EMERGING FM THE PLAINS LATER TUE. ECMWF              
WAS MOST EMPHATIC WITH THIS SYSTEM LAST COUPLE DAYS...AND OTHER                 
GUIDANCE NOW LOOKS LIKE IT IS TRENDING THIS WAY. ECMWF IDEA WOULD               
BRUSH FAR SOUTH CENTRAL...BASICALLY SRN MNM COUNTY...WITH WIDESPREAD            
SNOW LATE MON NIGHT THROUGH TUE NIGHT. PRIMARY SYSTEM SNOW SHOULD               
STAY SOUTH OF CWA...BUT ADVY MAY BE NEEDED IN THE SCNTRL. NRLY FLOW             
OVR LK SUPERIOR WITH COOLING WILL LEAD TO LK EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS                
INCREASING IN THE TUE/WED PERIOD.                                               
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION (FOR THE 12Z TAF ISSUANCE)...                                         
EXPECT SC CIGS TO GRDLY ERODE THIS AFTN WITH ARRIVAL OF HI PRES RDG/            
DRY AIRMASS FM THE W THAT IS SHOWN ON 00Z INL RAOB. MVFR CIGS WL                
PERSIST THE LONGEST AT CMX WITH FVRBL UPSLOPE WLY WIND COMPONENT.               
CLDS WL THICKEN WITH CIGS FALLING TO HI END MVFR RANGE WITH APRCH OF            
WEAK LO PRES TROF TNGT. SINCE THE BEST DYNAMICS LOOK TO PASS TO THE             
S...SUSPECT THE ANTECEDENT DRY AIRMASS WL NOT SATURATE SUFFICIENTLY             
FOR ANY SGNFT SN/VSBY RESTRICTION AT EITHER SAW OR CMX.                         
&&                                                                              
.MARINE (FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)...                       
AS A LOW PRESSURE CENTER OVER SOUTHEAST CANADA CONTINUES TO THE EAST            
TODAY...A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL MIGRATE ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT               
LAKES BY THIS EVENING AND INTO NEW ENGLAND BY LATE MONDAY. STRONG N             
WINDS EARLY TODAY WILL DIMINISH QUICKLY AS THIS RIDGE APPROACHES. IN            
THE WAKE OF THE RIDGE...EXPECT A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH TO DRIFT OVER              
LAKE SUPERIOR ON MONDAY NIGHT. ONCE THIS TROUGH PUSHES TO THE EAST              
ON TUESDAY...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER MISSOURI WILL MOVE NORTHEAST            
ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AND TO THE ST LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY BY             
EARLY WEDNESDAY. NORTH WINDS ON THE NORTHERN FLANK OF THIS LOW TRACK            
MAY REACH 30 KNOTS OVER CENTRAL AND EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR ON TUESDAY            
AND TUESDAY NIGHT. A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL FOLLOW ACROSS THE                 
UPPER GREAT LAKES ON WEDNESDAY BEFORE ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM               
MOVES EAST FROM THE PLAINS TO NEAR UPPER MICHIGAN ON THURSDAY.                  
RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS WILL PREVAIL ON THESE TWO DAYS.                          
&&                                                                              
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
UPPER MICHIGAN...                                                               
  WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR MIZ006-085.             
  LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY                       
    AFTERNOON FOR MIZ007-014.                                                   
LAKE SUPERIOR...NONE.                                                           
LAKE MICHIGAN...NONE.                                                           
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SYNOPSIS/DISCUSSION...JLA                                                       
AVIATION...KC                                                                   
MARINE...KC                                                                     
</pre> mi                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN                                              
944 AM CST SUN DEC 7 2008                                                       
.UPDATE...MOVED START TIME FOR WWA TO 18Z. LES PLUME HAS DEVELOPED              
WITH VIS LOWERING TO 1-2SM FROM TWM TO BFW. LATEST RUC13/NAM12                  
SUPPORTS CONTINUED DEVELOPMENT ALONG NORTH SHORE.                               
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 844 AM CST SUN DEC 7 2008/                          
UPDATE...LATEST DLH 88D INDICATES A MID LAKE CONVERGENCE ZONE                   
..THAT INITIALLY DEVELOPED OVERNIGHT...HAS PUSHED ONSHORE NEAR                  
FRENCH RIVER TO TWM VICINITY. HAVE INCREASED POPS/QPF/SNOW/SKY                  
GRIDS TO ACCOUNT FOR THE LES PLUME. USING NAM12 SFC/925H                        
WINDS/MSTR FCST... AREA SHOULD EXPAND AND ENCOMPASS MOST OF NORTH               
SHORE BY 18Z. LATEST RUC13 925/85H WIND FCST SHOWS MINIMAL SHEAR                
SHOULD ALLOW INCREASE ORGANIZATION OF BAND AND ADDITIONAL BANDS BY              
LATE MORNING. RUC13 QPF IS MINIMAL IN RESPECT TO LOW LVL DRY AIR                
HOWEVER IT SEEMS ACTIVITY ALREADY STARTED AND RUC MAY BE PLAYING CATCHUP.       
MAY NEED TO PUSH ADVISORY TIME AHEAD.                                           
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 530 AM CST SUN DEC 7 2008/                           
DISCUSSION...                                                                   
SHORT TERM FOCUS REVOLVES AROUND APPROACHING CLIPPER SYSTEM AND                 
LAKE EFFECT SNOW POTENTIAL ALONG THE NORTH SHORE.                               
CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING ACROSS MUCH               
OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR...WITH A SHORTWAVE OVER THE DAKOTAS.                   
TEMPERATURES HAVE DROPPED TO 20 BELOW AND COLDER IN A FEW SPOTS                 
THIS MORNING...UNDER CLEAR SKIES AND CALM WINDS. DEPARTING RIDGE                
HAS EFFECTIVELY ERODED MUCH OF THE HIGH CLOUDS FROM THE                         
APPROACHING CLIPPER FROM MAKING INROADS INTO OUR CWA.                           
HOWEVER...WITH INCREASING WAA AND ISENTROPIC LIFT...CLOUDS SHOULD               
INCREASE FAIRLY STEADILY FROM WEST TO EAST THIS MORNING...WITH                  
THE CHANCE FOR SNOW BEGINNING AS EARLY AS 13Z-15Z IN OUR FAR                    
SOUTHWEST...BEFORE GRADUALLY OVERSPREADING THE REST OF THE AREA                 
DURING THE DAY. AM A BIT CONCERNED THAT THE RIDGE PASSING OFF THE               
EAST MAY HELP KEEP DRY AIR LOCKED IN PLACE ACROSS AT LEAST OUR NE               
ZONES THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY...SO INCREASED POPS MORE SLOWLY IN                
THIS AREA. ADDITIONALLY...THIS SYSTEM WILL BE WEAKENING...WITH                  
THE BEST LIFT AND FORCING PASSING JUST SOUTH OF OUR AREA. NOT                   
EXPECTING SNOW ACCUMULATIONS GREATER THAN 1 OR 2 INCHES...WITH                  
THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS IN THE BRAINERD LAKES VICINITY. SNOW CHANCES                
WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH LATE TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY IN THE WEST.                   
WILL BE ISSUING A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE NORTH                         
SHORE...WHERE THE SYNOPTIC SYSTEM COMBINED WITH LAKE EFFECT SNOW                
MAY DROP 3 TO 6 INCHES OF SNOW FROM MID AFTERNOON TODAY THROUGH                 
EARLY MONDAY MORNING. SFC-85H RH REMAINS QUITE LOW THROUGH 21Z                  
TODAY...BEFORE INCREASING RATHER RAPIDLY...WHILE WINDS IN THIS                  
LAYER TURN SOUTHERLY...AND 85H TEMPS HOVER AROUND -16C...THROUGH                
AT LEAST EARLY MONDAY. HOWEVER...INVERSION HEIGHTS ARE SOMEWHAT                 
MARGINAL FOR MUCH OF THIS PERIOD...AND GENERALLY REMAIN AROUND                  
5000 FT. STILL...THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW IS                    
CERTAINLY POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN.                          
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL PUSH SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA ON MONDAY.               
BOTH THE GFS AND NAM SHOW THAT OUR SOUTHERN ZONES MAY BE BRUSHED                
WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW FROM THIS SYSTEM...BUT HAVE OPTED TO MAKE                  
ONLY VERY SLIGHT INCREASES IN POPS FOR NOW. FORECAST SOUNDINGS                  
ALSO SUGGEST THE POSSIBILITY OF FREEZING DRIZZLE ACROSS MUCH OF                 
THE AREA...PARTICULARLY THROUGH THE MIDDAY HOURS.                               
.EXTENDED...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY...                               
MODELS HAVE BEEN DIFFERING WITH EACH OTHER AND WITH THEMSELVES                  
DURING SUCCEEDING RUNS. THE EUROPEAN AND NAM SEEM TO BE IN                      
AGREEMENT...HOWEVER THE SLOWER...DRIER AND COLDER GFS SEEMS TO BE               
CLOSEST BUT TO HOW THINGS HAVE BEEN HAPPENING HERE...AT LEAST AT                
LOW LEVELS. THE GFS NEEDS TO BE CORRECTED SIGNIFICANTLY...THOUGH.               
WITH A WAVY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER OUR AREA...A STORM TRACK OF               
REALLY IMPRESSIVE STORMS HAD MAINTAINED ITSELF WELL TO OUR SOUTH                
AND EAST. THE OTHER MODELS TRY TO BRING CLIPPERS THROUGH OUR                    
AREA...ONE EXCEPTION DID GO THROUGH HERE A COUPLE OF DAYS AGO                   
ONLY BECAUSE OF VERY STRONG DYNAMICS. THE WEAKER CLIPPERS WILL                  
CONTINUE TO SINK THROUGH THE WESTERN DAKOTAS WHILE A SERIES OF                  
HIGHS TRACKS JUST WEST AND SOUTH OF US. THE CLIPPERS ADD THEIR                  
STRENGTH TO THE SOUTHERN STORM SERIES. THE HIGHS HAVE A TENDENCY                
TO BOTH BUILD TEMPORARY RIDGES JUST NORTH OF LAKE SUPERIOR WHEN                 
THEY ARE TO OUR WEST...THEN PUT A PERSISTENT RIDGE TO THE NORTH                 
AND OVER OUR AREA. THE GFS...TO A LESSER EXTENT THAN THE OTHER                  
MODELS...TAKE THAT NORTH-POKING RIDGE OUT MUCH TOO FAST AND                     
ALSO...TO A LESSER EXTENT THAN THE OTHER MODELS...CARRY TOO MUCH                
MID AND HIGH CLOUDS OVER ANY UPPER RIDGE TO OUR WEST. WHAT HAS                  
BEEN HAPPENING...AND WILL CONTINUE TO HAPPEN DURING THE COMING                  
WEEK...IS WHEN WE HAVE THE RIDGING NORTHWARD OVER OUR AREA...THE                
MODELS ARE ABOUT 5C TOO WARM WITH DAILY HIGHS AND AS MUCH AS 15C                
TOO WARM WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS. THESE LOW TEMPERATURES SEEM TO BE                 
OVER US...EVEN MORE THAN OVER CANADA AND MUCH MORE THAN OVER                    
ADJACENT FORECAST AREAS. THE LOW TEMPERATURES...AOB -30C IN MANY                
PLACES THIS MORNING FOR EXAMPLE...ANCHOR THE RIDGE IN PLACE                     
RESULTING IN FIRST...UPSTREAM CLOUDS REMAINING OUT OF OUR AREA                  
FOR AS MUCH AS 24 HOURS LATER THAN THE MODELS SUGGEST. AND...MOST               
IMPORTANTLY...THE RIDGE...ANCHORED OVER THE BITTERLY COLD IRON                  
RANGE AND RAINY RIVER VALLEY...MAINTAINS A NORTH GRADIENT OVER                  
THE STILL OPEN LAKE SUPERIOR. SO...SNOW SHOWERS ALONG THE SHORE                 
COUNTIES OF NORTHWEST WISCONSIN HAVE BEEN VERY HEAVY...PERSISTED                
LONGER THAN EXPECTED...RESULTING IN HEAVY SNOW. AGAIN...WE ANCPT                
THESE TRENDS TO CONTINUE. WE LIKE THE GFS LOWER THICKNESSES AND                 
FURTHER INTRUSION OF ARCTIC AIR...AT LEAST ON THIS 07/00Z RUN.                  
THOUGH THE GFS...AS USUAL...HAS TOO MUCH MOISTURE OVER US...ITS                 
CLIPPER TRACK HAS BEEN REASONABLE. SO...WE ARE GOING COLD AND                   
DRY...AND ANCPT SERIOUS SNOW SQUALLS ANYTIME AN ONSHORE FLOW                    
BECOMES ESTABLISHED.                                                            
AVIATION...                                                                     
PRIND CLDNS WL RMN W OF AREA AND SNW SQLS WL RMN OVER LK SUPR                   
DURG THE MRNG. MID/HI CLDNS WL INCRS FM W TO E DURG AFTN... WITH                
CONDS DTRTG TO MVFR AND PSBLY IFR IN LGT SNW FM W TO E LT THIS                  
AFTN THRUT THIS EVE. AN ONSHR FLO TO THE N SHR WL RESULT IN MLIFR               
IN LCLY INTS SNW SHWRS AND SNW SQLS BGNG LT AFTN AND CONTG THRUT                
TNGT WHEN WNDS WL VEER. SNW SHWRS WL BCM ISOLD...BUT WITH A                     
PSBLTY OF PTCHY FRZG DRZL MON.                                                  
&&                                                                              
POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                             
DLH  12   6  19   2 /  70  70  20  20                                           
INL  11   1  16  -6 /  60  50  10  10                                           
BRD  13   7  22   5 /  80  50  20  10                                           
HYR  14   6  24   5 /  70  80  20  20                                           
ASX  14   6  24   9 /  40  70  30  30                                           
&&                                                                              
.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
MN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST MONDAY FOR NORTHERN                 
     COOK/NORTHERN LAKE-SOUTHERN COOK/LAKESHORE-SOUTHERN                        
     LAKE/LAKESHORE.                                                            
WI...NONE.                                                                      
LS...NONE.                                                                      
$$                                                                              
CANNON                                                                          
</pre> mn                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN                                              
844 AM CST SUN DEC 7 2008                                                       
.UPDATE...LATEST DLH 88D INDICATES A MID LAKE CONVERGENCE ZONE                  
...THAT INITIALLY DEVELOPED OVERNIGHT...HAS PUSHED ONSHORE NEAR                 
FRENCH RIVER TO TWM VICINITY. HAVE INCREASED POPS/QPF/SNOW/SKY                  
GRIDS TO ACCOUNT FOR THE LES PLUME. USING NAM12 SFC/925H                        
WINDS/MSTR FCST... AREA SHOULD EXPAND AND ENCOMPASS MOST OF NORTH               
SHORE BY 18Z. LATEST RUC13 925/85H WIND FCST SHOWS MINIMAL SHEAR                
SHOULD ALLOW INCREASE ORGANIZATION OF BAND AND ADDITIONAL BANDS BY              
LATE MORNING. RUC13 QPF IS MINIMAL IN RESPECT TO LOW LVL DRY AIR                
HOWEVER IT SEEMS ACTIVITY ALREADY STARTED AND RUC MAY BE PLAYING CATCHUP.       
MAY NEED TO PUSH ADVISORY TIME AHEAD.                                           
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 530 AM CST SUN DEC 7 2008/                          
DISCUSSION...                                                                   
SHORT TERM FOCUS REVOLVES AROUND APPROACHING CLIPPER SYSTEM AND                 
LAKE EFFECT SNOW POTENTIAL ALONG THE NORTH SHORE.                               
CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING ACROSS MUCH               
OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR...WITH A SHORTWAVE OVER THE DAKOTAS.                   
TEMPERATURES HAVE DROPPED TO 20 BELOW AND COLDER IN A FEW SPOTS                 
THIS MORNING...UNDER CLEAR SKIES AND CALM WINDS. DEPARTING RIDGE                
HAS EFFECTIVELY ERODED MUCH OF THE HIGH CLOUDS FROM THE                         
APPROACHING CLIPPER FROM MAKING INROADS INTO OUR CWA.                           
HOWEVER...WITH INCREASING WAA AND ISENTROPIC LIFT...CLOUDS SHOULD               
INCREASE FAIRLY STEADILY FROM WEST TO EAST THIS MORNING...WITH                  
THE CHANCE FOR SNOW BEGINNING AS EARLY AS 13Z-15Z IN OUR FAR                    
SOUTHWEST...BEFORE GRADUALLY OVERSPREADING THE REST OF THE AREA                 
DURING THE DAY. AM A BIT CONCERNED THAT THE RIDGE PASSING OFF THE               
EAST MAY HELP KEEP DRY AIR LOCKED IN PLACE ACROSS AT LEAST OUR NE               
ZONES THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY...SO INCREASED POPS MORE SLOWLY IN                
THIS AREA. ADDITIONALLY...THIS SYSTEM WILL BE WEAKENING...WITH                  
THE BEST LIFT AND FORCING PASSING JUST SOUTH OF OUR AREA. NOT                   
EXPECTING SNOW ACCUMULATIONS GREATER THAN 1 OR 2 INCHES...WITH                  
THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS IN THE BRAINERD LAKES VICINITY. SNOW CHANCES                
WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH LATE TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY IN THE WEST.                   
WILL BE ISSUING A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE NORTH                         
SHORE...WHERE THE SYNOPTIC SYSTEM COMBINED WITH LAKE EFFECT SNOW                
MAY DROP 3 TO 6 INCHES OF SNOW FROM MID AFTERNOON TODAY THROUGH                 
EARLY MONDAY MORNING. SFC-85H RH REMAINS QUITE LOW THROUGH 21Z                  
TODAY...BEFORE INCREASING RATHER RAPIDLY...WHILE WINDS IN THIS                  
LAYER TURN SOUTHERLY...AND 85H TEMPS HOVER AROUND -16C...THROUGH                
AT LEAST EARLY MONDAY. HOWEVER...INVERSION HEIGHTS ARE SOMEWHAT                 
MARGINAL FOR MUCH OF THIS PERIOD...AND GENERALLY REMAIN AROUND                  
5000 FT. STILL...THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW IS                    
CERTAINLY POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN.                          
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL PUSH SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA ON MONDAY.               
BOTH THE GFS AND NAM SHOW THAT OUR SOUTHERN ZONES MAY BE BRUSHED                
WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW FROM THIS SYSTEM...BUT HAVE OPTED TO MAKE                  
ONLY VERY SLIGHT INCREASES IN POPS FOR NOW. FORECAST SOUNDINGS                  
ALSO SUGGEST THE POSSIBILITY OF FREEZING DRIZZLE ACROSS MUCH OF                 
THE AREA...PARTICULARLY THROUGH THE MIDDAY HOURS.                               
..EXTENDED...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY...                              
MODELS HAVE BEEN DIFFERING WITH EACH OTHER AND WITH THEMSELVES                  
DURING SUCCEEDING RUNS. THE EUROPEAN AND NAM SEEM TO BE IN                      
AGREEMENT...HOWEVER THE SLOWER...DRIER AND COLDER GFS SEEMS TO BE               
CLOSEST BUT TO HOW THINGS HAVE BEEN HAPPENING HERE...AT LEAST AT                
LOW LEVELS. THE GFS NEEDS TO BE CORRECTED SIGNIFICANTLY...THOUGH.               
WITH A WAVY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER OUR AREA...A STORM TRACK OF               
REALLY IMPRESSIVE STORMS HAD MAINTAINED ITSELF WELL TO OUR SOUTH                
AND EAST. THE OTHER MODELS TRY TO BRING CLIPPERS THROUGH OUR                    
AREA...ONE EXCEPTION DID GO THROUGH HERE A COUPLE OF DAYS AGO                   
ONLY BECAUSE OF VERY STRONG DYNAMICS. THE WEAKER CLIPPERS WILL                  
CONTINUE TO SINK THROUGH THE WESTERN DAKOTAS WHILE A SERIES OF                  
HIGHS TRACKS JUST WEST AND SOUTH OF US. THE CLIPPERS ADD THEIR                  
STRENGTH TO THE SOUTHERN STORM SERIES. THE HIGHS HAVE A TENDENCY                
TO BOTH BUILD TEMPORARY RIDGES JUST NORTH OF LAKE SUPERIOR WHEN                 
THEY ARE TO OUR WEST...THEN PUT A PERSISTENT RIDGE TO THE NORTH                 
AND OVER OUR AREA. THE GFS...TO A LESSER EXTENT THAN THE OTHER                  
MODELS...TAKE THAT NORTH-POKING RIDGE OUT MUCH TOO FAST AND                     
ALSO...TO A LESSER EXTENT THAN THE OTHER MODELS...CARRY TOO MUCH                
MID AND HIGH CLOUDS OVER ANY UPPER RIDGE TO OUR WEST. WHAT HAS                  
BEEN HAPPENING...AND WILL CONTINUE TO HAPPEN DURING THE COMING                  
WEEK...IS WHEN WE HAVE THE RIDGING NORTHWARD OVER OUR AREA...THE                
MODELS ARE ABOUT 5C TOO WARM WITH DAILY HIGHS AND AS MUCH AS 15C                
TOO WARM WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS. THESE LOW TEMPERATURES SEEM TO BE                 
OVER US...EVEN MORE THAN OVER CANADA AND MUCH MORE THAN OVER                    
ADJACENT FORECAST AREAS. THE LOW TEMPERATURES...AOB -30C IN MANY                
PLACES THIS MORNING FOR EXAMPLE...ANCHOR THE RIDGE IN PLACE                     
RESULTING IN FIRST...UPSTREAM CLOUDS REMAINING OUT OF OUR AREA                  
FOR AS MUCH AS 24 HOURS LATER THAN THE MODELS SUGGEST. AND...MOST               
IMPORTANTLY...THE RIDGE...ANCHORED OVER THE BITTERLY COLD IRON                  
RANGE AND RAINY RIVER VALLEY...MAINTAINS A NORTH GRADIENT OVER                  
THE STILL OPEN LAKE SUPERIOR. SO...SNOW SHOWERS ALONG THE SHORE                 
COUNTIES OF NORTHWEST WISCONSIN HAVE BEEN VERY HEAVY...PERSISTED                
LONGER THAN EXPECTED...RESULTING IN HEAVY SNOW. AGAIN...WE ANCPT                
THESE TRENDS TO CONTINUE. WE LIKE THE GFS LOWER THICKNESSES AND                 
FURTHER INTRUSION OF ARCTIC AIR...AT LEAST ON THIS 07/00Z RUN.                  
THOUGH THE GFS...AS USUAL...HAS TOO MUCH MOISTURE OVER US...ITS                 
CLIPPER TRACK HAS BEEN REASONABLE. SO...WE ARE GOING COLD AND                   
DRY...AND ANCPT SERIOUS SNOW SQUALLS ANYTIME AN ONSHORE FLOW                    
BECOMES ESTABLISHED.                                                            
AVIATION...                                                                     
PRIND CLDNS WL RMN W OF AREA AND SNW SQLS WL RMN OVER LK SUPR                   
DURG THE MRNG. MID/HI CLDNS WL INCRS FM W TO E DURG AFTN... WITH                
CONDS DTRTG TO MVFR AND PSBLY IFR IN LGT SNW FM W TO E LT THIS                  
AFTN THRUT THIS EVE. AN ONSHR FLO TO THE N SHR WL RESULT IN MLIFR               
IN LCLY INTS SNW SHWRS AND SNW SQLS BGNG LT AFTN AND CONTG THRUT                
TNGT WHEN WNDS WL VEER. SNW SHWRS WL BCM ISOLD...BUT WITH A                     
PSBLTY OF PTCHY FRZG DRZL MON.                                                  
&&                                                                              
POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                             
DLH  12   6  19   2 /  70  70  20  20                                           
INL  11   1  16  -6 /  60  50  10  10                                           
BRD  13   7  22   5 /  80  50  20  10                                           
HYR  14   6  24   5 /  70  80  20  20                                           
ASX  14   6  24   9 /  40  70  30  30                                           
&&                                                                              
.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
MN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 6 AM CST               
     MONDAY FOR NORTHERN COOK/NORTHERN LAKE-SOUTHERN                            
     COOK/LAKESHORE-SOUTHERN LAKE/LAKESHORE.                                    
WI...NONE.                                                                      
LS...NONE.                                                                      
$$                                                                              
CANNON                                                                          
</pre> mn                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA                                          
1216 PM CST SUN DEC 7 2008                                                      
.UPDATED FOR THE 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...                                     
.SHORT TERM /TODAY/...                                                          
SFC RIDGE AXIS BEGINNING TO SHIFT EAST OF THE AREA...WITH HIGH                  
CLOUDS SPREADING EASTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL CWA AHEAD OF THE WARM                
FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE NEXT WAVE DIVING SOUTHEAST FROM THE                   
CANADIAN ROCKIES. BEST LIFT WITH THIS WAVE AS IT DIVES SOUTHEASTWARD            
THROUGH SRN MN/NRN IA THIS MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON WILL MAINLY              
BE NORTH OF HWY 20. GFS/NAM/RUC IN DISAGREEMENT REGARDING AMOUNT OF             
MOISTURE/QPF WITH THE NAM/RUC ADVERTISING ONLY A FEW HUNDREDTHS                 
ACROSS THE NORTHERN CWA VERSUS JUST OVER A TENTH WITH THE GFS.                  
SOUNDINGS INDICATING BRIEF SATURATION...WITH PROBABLY AROUND A FEW              
HOURS OF LIGHT SNOW AT MOST LOCATIONS NORTH OF I-80. OTHERWISE MAYBE            
ONLY A BRIEF SNOW SHOWER OR FLURRIES EXPECTED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN               
CWA. PREVIOUS FORECAST MORE IN LINE WITH THE GFS...BUT LOOKING AT               
TRENDS UPSTREAM FEEL THE GFS MAY BE A BIT OVERDONE. THEREFORE HAVE              
TRENDED GRIDS SLIGHTLY TOWARD THE NAM/RUC BY LOWERING POPS ACROSS               
THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA AND CUTTING THE QPF DOWN BY 30 TO 40               
PERCENT. COULD STILL SEE AROUND AN INCH ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER                
COUNTIES...TAPERING TO A FEW TENTHS AROUND HWY 30 TO AROUND A TRACE             
FURTHER SOUTH. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS DID SHOW A BRIEF PERIOD OF FZDZ AS              
THE SNOW TAPERED OFF AND SATURATION WAS LOST ALOFT. HOWEVER THIS WAS            
QUITE BRIEF ONLY AROUND AN HOUR OR SO...SO LEFT PRECIP TYPE ALL SNOW            
FOR NOW.                                                                        
.LONG TERM /TONIGHT-SATURDAY/...                                                
WILL HAVE ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE TRANSLATING OVER SOUTHERN IOWA                 
TONIGHT WITH BAND OF WARM ADVECTION AND MID LEVEL FRONTOGENETICAL               
FORCING. MODELS DIFFER ON AREA THAT RECEIVES LIGHT PRECIP...SO                  
WENT WITH ONLY LOW CHANCES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OR SO.                      
OTHERWISE MAIN CONCERN FOR THIS FORECAST PACKAGE IS SIGNIFICANT                 
SYSTEM FOR MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. THE ECMWF/UKMET/CANADIAN                   
SOLUTIONS ARE PREFERRED FOR THIS PERIOD GIVEN THEIR CONSISTENCY.                
UNFORTUNATELY THE NAM/SREF AND TO A CERTAIN EXTENT THE GFS/GEFS                 
ARE NOT EXACTLY GOING THE SAME DIRECTION...SO CONFIDENCE IS NOT AS              
HIGH AS I`D LIKE. HOWEVER...SINCE OUR FORECAST IS LEANING STRONGLY              
TO THE FIRST SET OF MODELS MENTIONED ABOVE...WILL NEED TO ISSUE A               
WINTER STORM WATCH FOR A STRIP OF COUNTIES SW TO NE THROUGH                     
CENTRAL IOWA. EVEN AFTER TAKING A BLEND OF THE GFS/HPC/ECMWF QPF                
FOR THIS PERIOD...STILL CAME OUT WITH 4 TO 8 INCHES OF SNOW FOR                 
MUCH OF OUR AREA. THAT SEEMS A BIT MUCH FOR THE UNCERTAINTY THAT                
STILL EXISTS...BUT I AM IN COLLABORATION WITH NEIGHBORS.                        
AS LOW PRESSURE ORGANIZES IN THE SOUTHERN PLAINS                                
MONDAY...FRONTOGENETICAL FORCES AND ISENTROPIC LIFT BEGIN OVER                  
IOWA...AND MAY YIELD LIGHT PRECIP. SOUTHERN IOWA SHOULD BE ABOVE                
FREEZING DURING THE DAY MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. SO AS THE SYSTEM              
APPROACHES...RAIN WILL BE THE DOMINATE P-TYPE ALONG AND SOUTH OF                
I-80. HOWEVER...AS THE LOW INTENSIFIES AND WRAPS IN THE COLDER AIR              
TO THE NORTH...ALONG WITH DYNAMIC PROCESSES IN THE TROWAL AND                   
DEFORMATION ZONE TO THE NORTH OF SFC LOW TRACK...PRECIP SHOULD                  
TRANSITION TO ALL SNOW MONDAY NIGHT NW TO SE. SOUNDINGS DON`T OFFER             
MUCH CHANCE FOR ANYTHING OTHER THAN RAIN OR SNOW. HOWEVER...THERE IS            
STILL A POSSIBILITY OF A LITTLE FREEZING RAIN IF COLDER SFC AIR                 
WORKS ITS WAY IN BEFORE THE UPPER LEVELS COOL ENOUGH. AT THIS TIME              
THOUGH SOUNDINGS SUPPORT MORE OF A RAIN TO SNOW TRANSITION WHERE IT             
STARTS AS RAIN. AM USING SNOW RATIOS AT OR BELOW CLIMO FOR                      
NOW...GIVEN UNCERTAINTIES OF WHERE ANY HEAVIER BANDED SNOW MAY SET              
UP.                                                                             
EVEN IF SNOWFALL AMOUNTS DO NOT REACH WARNING CRITERIA ALONE...THE              
WIND WILL BE INCREASING ENOUGH TO WARRANT A WINTER STORM WATCH.                 
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE SUSTAINED BETWEEN 20 AND 30 MPH WITH                   
GUSTS POTENTIALLY CLOSE TO 35 OR 40 MPH AT TIMES. AND THIS BRINGS               
US DANGEROUSLY CLOSE TO BLIZZARD CONDITIONS. BUT...GIVEN SOME                   
UNCERTAINTY THERE...WE WILL JUST MENTION THE WIND AND BLOWING SNOW              
POTENTIAL IN THE WINTER STORM WATCH. ALSO...BEING THE FIRST WINTER              
STORM THREAT OF THE SEASON...WE WILL LOWER OUR THRESHOLD A BIT.                 
THE SNOW SHOULD END TUESDAY EVENING IF NOT BEFORE...BUT CONTINUE                
TO BLOW AROUND WELL INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. AN ACTIVE PATTERN DOES NOT              
SLOW DOWN...WITH A COUPLE OF CLIPPER SYSTEMS FOR LATE IN THE                    
WEEK...EACH WITH RESPECTABLE CHANCES FOR LIGHT SNOW IN OUR AREA.                
TEMPS WERE ADJUSTED DOWNWARD FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK GIVEN                   
TREND IN THE MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE.                                             
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...07/18Z                                                              
LIGHT SNOW WILL END NEAR MCW AND ALO BY AROUND 20Z THEN WILL HAVE A             
RETURN OF MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ALL LOCATIONS THAT WILL LAST INTO A             
PORTION OF THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. MVFR CLOUD COVER MAY AGAIN                     
REDEVELOP LATE TONIGHT MAINLY EAST OF INTERSTATE 35. SOME FREEZING              
RAIN IS POSSIBLE NEAR OTM/ALO LATE TONIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING.                  
POSSIBLE THIS PRECIPITATION MAY EXTEND WESTWARD INTO THE DSM AREA.              
&&                                                                              
.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM MONDAY EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON                
FOR ADAIR-ADAMS-AUDUBON-BLACK HAWK-BOONE-BREMER-BUTLER-CALHOUN-                 
CARROLL-CASS-CERRO GORDO-CLARKE-DALLAS-FRANKLIN-GREENE-GRUNDY-                  
GUTHRIE-HAMILTON-HARDIN-JASPER-MADISON-MARSHALL-POLK-POWESHIEK-                 
RINGGOLD-STORY-TAMA-TAYLOR-UNION-WARREN-WEBSTER-WRIGHT.                         
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHORT TERM/AVIATION...ALBRECHT                                                  
LONG TERM...MOYER                                                               
</pre> ia                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS                                          
351 PM CST SUN DEC 7 2008                                                       
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
DAYS 1-2...                                                                     
THE MAIN FOCUS OF THE CURRENT FORECAST CONTINUES TO KEY ON A LIKELY             
PRECIPITATION EVENT MONDAY NIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY.                             
THIS MORNINGS UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATED A FLATTENING OF THE UPPER            
FLOW OVER THE LAST 24 HOURS, WITH THE UPPER LOW OFF THE CALIFORNIA              
COAST PHASING INTO THE WEAKENING RIDGE, DROPPING THE MEAN HEIGHT                
FIELD  OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES. A NARROW THERMAL AXIS WAS                
LOCATED FROM WEST TEXAS INTO WESTERN NEBRASKA AT SFC-700 MB.                    
DOWNSLOPE FLOW WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES LATE THIS AFTERNOON TO TOP OUT           
IN SOME LOCATIONS APPROACHING 70 DEGREES ACROSS WESTERN SECTIONS OF             
THE FAR EASTERN CWA, WHILE CLOUDS AND LOWER 850 TEMPERATURES WILL               
WILL HAVE TEMPERED HIGHS OVER THE NORTHEAST.                                    
FOR TONIGHT, CYCLOGENESIS SHOULD BEGIN TO DEVELOP ACROSS EASTERN                
COLORADO IN RESPONSE TO WIDESPREAD HEIGHT FALLS CONTINUING ACROSS THE           
WESTERN HALF OF THE CONUS. WE EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO BE SLIGHTLY                
MORE MILD THAN SATURDAY NIGHT AND HAVE FORECAST MID 30S NORTH TO NEAR           
40 IN THE SOUTH WEST. INCREASING CLOUDS MAY EVEN KEEP TEMPERATURES              
FROM DROPPING THIS LOW OVER THE NORTH.                                          
REASONABLY WARM BOUNDARY LAYER AIR WILL STILL BE ACROSS THE FORECAST            
AREA ON MONDAY. WITH LESS DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT AND INCREASED CLOUD               
COVER WILL EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO NOT REACH QUITE AS WARM FOR                   
MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES. THOUGH THE DAY ON MONDAY CHANCES FOR                      
PRECIPITATION WILL INCREASE ALTHOUGH THE BEST CHANCES ARE NOT LIKELY            
UNTIL LATER IN THE DAY.                                                         
THERE ARE SIGNIFICANT MODEL DIFFERENCES WITH THE UPCOMING EVENT.                
ECMWF/NAM ARE SIMILAR WITH THE STRENGTH OF THE SYSTEM WHILE THE                 
GFS IS A MUCH MORE AGGRESSIVE SOLUTION WITH A DEEPER LOW CENTER AND             
RESULTING STRONGER FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING...SO MUCH SO THAT THE                
SNOW OUTPUT TOTAL IS IN EXCESS OF 6 INCHES ACROSS ALL OF SW KANSAS              
BY EARLY TUESDAY. GFS OUTPUTS A SIGNIFICANTLY HIGHER QPF TOTAL THAN             
THE OTHER MODELS...MOST OF WHICH IS BEING CONVERTED TO SNOW. IN                 
CONTRAST, THE NAM IS LESS AGGRESSIVE, DEVELOPING 1-3 INCH AMOUNTS,              
AND LITTLE IF ANY IN THE FAR SOUTHEASTERN SECTIONS. THE ECMWF AND               
NAM SEEM TO BE THE MORE REASONABLE SOLUTIONS AT THIS POINT,                     
ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE VERY DRY DEWPOINTS ACROSS OK/TX AND IT WOULD               
SEEM TREMENDOUS MOISTURE TRANSPORT WOULD BEE NEEDED TO PRODUCE THIS             
KIND OF A SYSTEM. WILL FORECAST 1 TO 3 INCHES PRIMARILY FROM                    
NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST. WHAT IS MOST LIKELY IS THE FAR SOUTHEAST                
WOULD RECEIVE THE LEAST AMOUNT OF SNOWFALL. VERY LITTLE IF ANY                  
RAINFALL WOULD BE EXPECTED MONDAY DURING THE MORNING WITH THE WARM              
ADVECTION/THETA-A E ADVECTION WAVE AHEAD OF THE SURFACE                         
CYCLOGENESIS, WITH HIGH PROBABILITY BUT LOW QPF RAIN IN ADVANCE OF              
THE CHANGEOVER. LATER MONDAY EVENING, CHANCES WILL INCREASE AND THE             
950-700 MB TEMPERATURE GRADIENT LAYER BEGINS TO UNDERGO STRETCHING              
ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS. 850 TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE WARM ENOUGH FOR A             
PERIOD OF RAINFALL BEFORE A RAIN SNOW MIX DEVELOPS MONDAY EVENING,              
CHANGING TO ALL SNOW BY LATE MONDAY EVENING. POST FRONTAL WINDS WILL            
BE SUFFICIENT FOR SIGNIFICANTLY REDUCED VISIBILITIES IN BLOWING SNOW            
HOWEVER REDUCED VISIBILITIES TO A QUARTER MILE REMAINS UNCERTAIN                
DESPITE WIND SPEEDS AROUND 25+ MPH AS DEV-RUC 13KM MAINTAINING VSBYS            
ABOVE 1/2 MILE DURING  THE STRONGER PUSH OF COLD AIR ON MONDAY                  
NIGHT.                                                                          
DAYS 3-7...                                                                     
AFTER THE SNOW MELTS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY THURSDAY, IT                 
APPEARS THAT TEMPERATURES COULD WARM SIGNIFICANTLY INTO THE 50S BY              
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS STRONG WSW MID LEVEL FLOW INDUCES A LEE                  
TROUGH. TEMPERATURES WERE ADJUSTED ACCORDINGLY.                                 
AS A LARGE UPPER TROUGH DIGS ALONG THE WEST COAST, AN ARCTIC HIGH               
SHOULD MOVE DOWN THE PLAINS BY SUNDAY. TODAY`S SUITE OF MODELS HAVE             
CONTINUED TO SLOW DOWN THE ARCTIC OUTBREAK FOR NEXT WEEKEND, BUT                
ONLY BY ABOUT 12 HOURS. IT APPEARS THAT THE STRONG COLD SURGE MAY               
HOLD OFF UNTIL A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH PASSES ACROSS THE CENTRAL              
AND NORTHERN PLAINS.                                                            
ANY PRECIP WILL PROBABLY NOT OCCUR UNTIL MONDAY OR TUESDAY. AFTER               
THE COLD AIR ARRIVES, A STORM SYSTEM COULD DEVELOP AND PASS ACROSS              
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS PER ECMWF. IT IS VERY DIFFICULT TO GET                      
PRECIP IN THE WARM SECTOR IN DEC/JAN IN SOUTHWEST KANSAS SINCE THE              
WARM CONVEYOR BELT TENDS TO BE TO OUR EAST.                                     
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.                             
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
DDC  66  35  53  27 /   0  10  40  80                                           
GCK  67  36  56  25 /   0  10  50  80                                           
EHA  68  38  56  26 /   0  10  40  80                                           
LBL  65  37  56  28 /   0  10  40  80                                           
HYS  55  33  49  25 /   0  10  50  90                                           
P28  64  35  58  32 /   0  10  40  80                                           
&&                                                                              
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
NONE.                                                                           
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
FN33/24                                                                         
</pre> ks                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS                                            
1116 AM MST SUN DEC 7 2008                                                      
.UPDATE...                                                                      
1112 AM MST SUN DEC 7 2008                                                      
TEMPS HAVE WARMED RAPIDLY ON PERIPHERY OF CLOUD SHIELD...AND SFC                
WINDS AND TDS ALSO SUGGEST WEAK WARM FRONT MOVING EAST ACROSS THE               
AREA. SEVERAL LOCATIONS ALREADY NEARING FORECAST HIGHS...AND                    
LATEST GUIDANCE AND 12Z RAOBS WOULD SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE 60S                    
ACROSS MANY LOCATIONS. CLOUD COVER MAY RESULT IN A NORTH SOUTH                  
GRADIENT ALONG WITH THE EXPECTED EAST-WEST GRADIENT...BUT BASED ON              
LATEST SFC OBS UNDER CLOUD COVER NOT SURE THAT IMPACT WILL BE THAT              
GREAT.                                                                          
BY 18Z TEMPS HAVE CONTINUED TO WARM RAPIDLY WITH GLD AREA BEING                 
THE HOT SPOT. HAVE UPPED TEMPS INTO THE LOWER 70S ACROSS MUCH OF                
THE SOUTHWEST...AS CURRENT TEMP TRENDS ARE EXPECTED TO STABILIZE                
AS ATMOSPHERE BECOMING MORE MIXED.                                              
JRM                                                                             
&&                                                                              
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
246 AM MST SUN DEC 7 2008                                                       
NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BECOME ZONAL TONIGHT AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY DIGS               
SOUTH ACROSS WESTERN UTAH. FLOW THEN BECOMES SOUTHWEST ON MONDAY                
AS THE TROUGH MOVES EAST OF THE ROCKIES. FLOW IS NORTHWEST ON                   
TUESDAY. A SURFACE TROUGH OVER EASTERN COLORADO TODAY WILL MOVE                 
INTO THE OKLAHOMA/TEXAS PANHANDLE REGION TONIGHT/MONDAY. HIGH                   
PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO NORTHWEST KANSAS MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH                  
TUESDAY.                                                                        
THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUES ARE PRECIPITATION TYPE AND WIND.                       
TIMING OF THE EVENT LOOKS ON TRACK WITH UPWARD VERTICAL VELOCITIES              
INDICATED MONDAY AFTERNOON...CONTINUING MONDAY NIGHT AND ENDING                 
AROUND 12Z TUESDAY. THE CURRENT FORECAST KEEPS THE EVENT ABOUT 6                
HOURS PAST THIS TIME. 1000-500MB THICKNESSES FROM THE GFS/NAM                   
SUGGEST THAT PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE LIQUID THROUGH MOST OF MONDAY              
AFTERNOON EXCEPT IN THE NORTHWEST ZONES. BY MONDAY EVENING                      
PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE ALL SNOW OVER THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE                 
FORECAST AREA WITH ONLY THE SOUTHEAST ZONES HAVING A MIX OF                     
RAIN/SNOW. THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA SHOULD HAVE ALL SNOW BY 06Z                 
TUESDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE EVENT. THE NEXT ISSUE IS WIND WHICH              
THE RUC SHOWS TO BE A SIGNIFICANT CONCERN WITH THIS EVENT. BY 09Z               
TUESDAY SURFACE WIND IS PROGGED TO BE SUSTAINED AT GREATER THAN                 
30KTS AND WIND GUSTS GREATER THAN 40KTS. THIS WILL CAUSE SIGNIFICANT            
BLOWING AND DRIFTING OF ANY SNOW. MOST OF THE SNOW SHOULD END BY 12Z            
TUESDAY BUT THIS STRONG WIND SHOULD LAST WELL INTO TUESDAY                      
AFTERNOON. CURRENT FORECAST ALREADY HAS AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW FOR               
THIS TIME PERIOD. A WINTER HIGHLIGHT MAY BE NEEDED IF MODELS                    
CONTINUE TO SHOW THIS MUCH WIND. FOR NOW PLAN TO CONTINUE WORDING IN            
THE HWO FOR THIS POTENTIAL. SNOWFALL AMOUNTS STILL LOOK LIKE 1 TO 3             
INCHES WITH HEAVIEST AMOUNTS OVER THE CENTRAL AND EAST ZONES.                   
TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE UNSEASONABLY WARM. GUIDANCE SHOWING                  
READINGS ABOUT 20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. FOLLOWED COOLER GUIDANCE                
BASED ON UNCERTAINTY WITH AMOUNT OF CLOUDS. COLD FRONT WILL COME                
THROUGH TONIGHT. MAX TEMPERATURES WILL REACH INTO THE LOWER 40S                 
MONDAY AND IN THE UPPER 30S TUESDAY. MIN TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO            
THE MID 20S TONIGHT AND AROUND 20 MONDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHTS.                    
FS                                                                              
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
1112 AM MST SUN DEC 7 2008                                                      
FOR 18Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH                  
WINDS GENERALLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE UNTIL 15Z WHEN WINDS SHIFT TO                
THE NORTH AROUND 12 KTS.                                                        
JRM &&                                                                          
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
KS...NONE.                                                                      
NE...NONE.                                                                      
CO...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</pre> ks                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS                                            
941 AM MST SUN DEC 7 2008                                                       
.UPDATE...                                                                      
937 AM MST SUN DEC 7 2008                                                       
TEMPS HAVE WARMED RAPIDLY ON PERIPHERY OF CLOUD SHIELD...AND SFC                
WINDS AND TDS ALSO SUGGEST WEAK WARM FRONT MOVING EAST ACROSS THE               
AREA. SEVERAL LOCATIONS ALREADY NEARING FORECAST HIGHS...AND                    
LATEST GUIDANCE AND 12Z RAOBS WOULD SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE 60S                    
ACROSS MANY LOCATIONS. CLOUD COVER MAY RESULT IN A NORTH SOUTH                  
GRADIENT ALONG WITH THE EXPECTED EAST-WEST GRADIENT...BUT BASED ON              
LATEST SFC OBS UNDER CLOUD COVER NOT SURE THAT IMPACT WILL BE THAT              
GREAT.                                                                          
JRM                                                                             
&&                                                                              
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
246 AM MST SUN DEC 7 2008                                                       
NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BECOME ZONAL TONIGHT AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY DIGS               
SOUTH ACROSS WESTERN UTAH. FLOW THEN BECOMES SOUTHWEST ON MONDAY                
AS THE TROUGH MOVES EAST OF THE ROCKIES. FLOW IS NORTHWEST ON                   
TUESDAY. A SURFACE TROUGH OVER EASTERN COLORADO TODAY WILL MOVE                 
INTO THE OKLAHOMA/TEXAS PANHANDLE REGION TONIGHT/MONDAY. HIGH                   
PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO NORTHWEST KANSAS MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH                  
TUESDAY.                                                                        
THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUES ARE PRECIPITATION TYPE AND WIND.                       
TIMING OF THE EVENT LOOKS ON TRACK WITH UPWARD VERTICAL VELOCITIES              
INDICATED MONDAY AFTERNOON...CONTINUING MONDAY NIGHT AND ENDING                 
AROUND 12Z TUESDAY. THE CURRENT FORECAST KEEPS THE EVENT ABOUT 6                
HOURS PAST THIS TIME. 1000-500MB THICKNESSES FROM THE GFS/NAM                   
SUGGEST THAT PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE LIQUID THROUGH MOST OF MONDAY              
AFTERNOON EXCEPT IN THE NORTHWEST ZONES. BY MONDAY EVENING                      
PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE ALL SNOW OVER THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE                 
FORECAST AREA WITH ONLY THE SOUTHEAST ZONES HAVING A MIX OF                     
RAIN/SNOW. THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA SHOULD HAVE ALL SNOW BY 06Z                 
TUESDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE EVENT. THE NEXT ISSUE IS WIND WHICH              
THE RUC SHOWS TO BE A SIGNIFICANT CONCERN WITH THIS EVENT. BY 09Z               
TUESDAY SURFACE WIND IS PROGGED TO BE SUSTAINED AT GREATER THAN                 
30KTS AND WIND GUSTS GREATER THAN 40KTS. THIS WILL CAUSE SIGNIFICANT            
BLOWING AND DRIFTING OF ANY SNOW. MOST OF THE SNOW SHOULD END BY 12Z            
TUESDAY BUT THIS STRONG WIND SHOULD LAST WELL INTO TUESDAY                      
AFTERNOON. CURRENT FORECAST ALREADY HAS AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW FOR               
THIS TIME PERIOD. A WINTER HIGHLIGHT MAY BE NEEDED IF MODELS                    
CONTINUE TO SHOW THIS MUCH WIND. FOR NOW PLAN TO CONTINUE WORDING IN            
THE HWO FOR THIS POTENTIAL. SNOWFALL AMOUNTS STILL LOOK LIKE 1 TO 3             
INCHES WITH HEAVIEST AMOUNTS OVER THE CENTRAL AND EAST ZONES.                   
TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE UNSEASONABLY WARM. GUIDANCE SHOWING                  
READINGS ABOUT 20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. FOLLOWED COOLER GUIDANCE                
BASED ON UNCERTAINTY WITH AMOUNT OF CLOUDS. COLD FRONT WILL COME                
THROUGH TONIGHT. MAX TEMPERATURES WILL REACH INTO THE LOWER 40S                 
MONDAY AND IN THE UPPER 30S TUESDAY. MIN TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO            
THE MID 20S TONIGHT AND AROUND 20 MONDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHTS.                    
FS                                                                              
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
437 AM MST SUN DEC 7 2008                                                       
FOR THE 12Z TAF...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AT               
BOTH KGLD AND KMCK WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS. WILL SEE A GENERALLY          
BROKEN MID LEVEL CLOUD DECK CENTERED AROUND 20-25K FT AGL THROUGH               
THE TAF CYCLE.                                                                  
FOLTZ                                                                           
&&                                                                              
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
KS...NONE.                                                                      
NE...NONE.                                                                      
CO...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</pre> ks                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME                                             
352 PM EST SUN DEC 7 2008                                                       
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE MARITIMES TONIGHT. SNOW WILL END                
ACROSS THE STATE AS THE LOW MOVES TO THE NORTH. WIND WILL INCREASE              
LATER TONIGHT AND THIS WILL RESULT IN BLOWING SNOW LATE TONIGHT                 
AND MONDAY.                                                                     
&&                                                                              
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...                                                  
RAPIDLY INTENSIFYING LOW PRESSURE IS TRACKING EAST OF THE GULF OF               
MAINE INTO THE NORTH/CENTRAL PORTION OF NOVA SCOTIA. THE INTENSE                
SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHWARD INTO THE MARITIMES TONIGHT.              
PRIMARY SYNOPTIC SCALE PRECIPITATION WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL PASS                 
JUST TO THE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA. PRIMARY CONCERN FOR OUR                  
AREA IS BANDING PRECIPITATION...THE HEAVIEST OF THIS IS CURRENTLY               
MOVING ACROSS WASHINGTON COUNTY. SITUATION IS FURTHER COMPLICATED               
WITH INTRUSION OF WARMER MARITIME AIR OVER EXTREME SOUTHEAST                    
WASHINGTON COUNTY WHICH TEMPORARILY CHANGED SNOW TO RAIN. BANDING               
APPEARS TO BE CONNECTED WITH COASTAL FRONTOGENSIS INDUCED BY WARM               
SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. STRATEGY WILL BE TO USE RUC13...WHICH IS              
MOST SUITED FOR BANDING EVENT AND CURRENTLY CORRELATES BEST TO                  
RADAR. WILL THEN TRANSITION TO NAM12 AFTER 03Z THIS EVENING. WILL               
USE NAM12 TEMPERATURES AND WIND INTO THIS EVENING THEN TRANSITION               
TO GMOS NUMBERS.                                                                
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...                                 
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CREST ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA (FA)                  
MONDAY NIGHT. A VERY QUICK FALL IN TEMPERATURE ARE EXPECTED EARLY               
MONDAY EVENING WITH CLEAR SKIES. IN FACT... SUBZERO READINGS ARE                
LIKELY IN THE NORTH AND SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO SOUTH...BEFORE                 
TEMPS LEVEL OUT LATER AT NIGHT WITH OVERALL PRESSURE FALL PATTERN               
DEVELOPING...AND SOME CLOUDS ENTERING THE PICTURE IN WEAK WARM                  
AIR ADVECTION (WWA).                                                            
WE WILL TRY TO USE A SENSIBLE WEATHER APPROACH TO A VERY COMPLEX                
PATTERN SHAPING UP FOR TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. FIRST AN INCREASING              
ISENTROPIC LIFTING REGIME WILL QUICKLY SATURATE THE AIRMASS                     
TUESDAY...WITH PCPN BREAKING OUT FROM SOUTH TO NORTH. PCPN SHOULD               
START AS SNOW...THEN MIX WITH OR CHANGE TO RAIN OVER THE SOUTH AS               
OVERALL THERMAL STRUCTURE WARMS.                                                
SIGNIFICANT OVERRUNNING/WAA/ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL CONTINUE TUESDAY               
NIGHT...WHILE OUR AREA COMES UNDER THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF AN              
INTENSIFYING ANTICYCLONIC JET ALOFT. TREMENDOUS LIFTING POTENTIAL               
WILL YIELD PCPN OVER OUR FA. RAIN WILL CONTINUE SOUTH ..WHILE PCPN              
STRUCTURE SHIFTS FROM SNOW TO RAIN CENTRAL...AND PCPN GRADUALLY                 
BECOMES A MIXTURE SNOW AND RAIN IN THE NORTH LATE.                              
IF MODEL TRENDS HOLD WE SHOULD BE IN THE WARM SECTOR WEDNESDAY...               
WITH ALL PCPN BUSTING OVER TO RAIN.                                             
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...                                  
THE LONG TERM STARTS WITH THE MODELS A BIT AT ODDS...BUT THE ECMWF              
HAS BEEN TRENDING BACK TOWARD THE GFS SOLUTION. THE GFS INDICATES               
A 987MB LOW CENTERED NEAR QUEBEC CITY WITH A FRONTAL SYSTEM                     
EXTENDING SOUTH ALONG THE APPALACHIANS. THE ECMWF HAS A 992MB LOW               
CENTER OVER THE GULF OF ST. LAWRENCE...WITH A COLD FRONT EXTENDING              
SW ALONG THE DOWNEAST COAST DOWN THE EASTERN SEABOARD. THOUGH THE               
DIFFERENCE DOESN`T SOUND DRASTIC...IT IS A MAJOR DIFFERENCE FOR THE             
COASTAL WATERS AND THE DOWNEAST COAST AND INLAND DOWNEAST. THE                  
INCREASED GRADIENT WILL PRODUCT SIGNIFICANTLY HIGHER WINDS WITH                 
THE GFS SOLUTION. THE DIFFERENCES CONTINUE THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY                 
WHEN THE MODELS ARE BACK INTO AGREEMENT AND REMAIN IN GOOD                      
AGREEMENT THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. LOADED THE GMOS FOR THE                
EXTENDED PERIOD. IT FOLLOWS THE GFS SOLUTION. THE GFS HAS HELD ITS              
TREND THE LAST COUPLE OF RUNS WITH THE OTHER MODELS TRENDING                    
TOWARD IT. THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH HOW THIS NEXT                   
SYSTEM WILL PLAY OUT BUT...IF THIS TREND CONTINUES AS FORECASTED                
IT WILL RESULT IN AT LEAST ADVISORY STRENGTH WINDS FOR THE DOWNEAST             
COAST AND INTERIOR DOWNEAST FROM WED EVENING THROUGH THUR                       
AFTERNOON.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION /21Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...                                        
SHORT TERM...VFR CONDITIONS MONDAY NIGHT WILL TRANSITION TO IFR                 
CONDITIONS ACROSS OUR ENTIRE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...            
AS THE NEXT STORM APPROACHES. UNSETTLED WEATHER CONDITIONS TO                   
PERSIST BEYOND MIDWEEK.                                                         
&&                                                                              
.MARINE...                                                                      
NEAR TERM: ALL MODEL GUIDANCE IS INCREASING WIND SPEED TO QUICKLY               
DURING THE AFTERNOON. WILL MANUALLY ADJUST CURRENT WIND SPEEDS                  
THEN TRANSITION TO NAM12 WINDS. HAVE INITIALIZED WINDS TONIGHT AND              
MONDAY WITH NAM12...THEN WILL INCREASE MODEL SPEEDS AROUND 3 KNOTS              
TO ELIMINATE LOW BIAS. FOR WAVES: HAVE USED WNA/4 WHICH LOOKS                   
REASONABLE. WILL LEAVE TIMING OF GALE WARNING AS IS...DO NOT                    
EXPECT SUSTAINED WINDS TO REACH GALE UNTIL LATER TONIGHT BUT GUSTS              
SHOULD JUSTIFY CURRENT TIMING.                                                  
SHORT TERM. A CONSIDERABLE INCREASE IN WINDS AND WAVES ARE EXPECTED             
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. WAVES IN EXCESS OF 10 FEET AND GALES WILL               
BE LIKELY.                                                                      
LONG TERM: A STRONG GALE WARNING MAY BE REQUIRED WED AFTERNOON                  
THROUGH THUR AFTERNOON AS A DEEP LOW AND ASSOCIATED FRONTAL SYSTEM              
WORK THEIR WAY THROUGH THE AREA.                                                
&&                                                                              
.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
ME...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST MONDAY FOR MEZ001-002-              
     005-006.                                                                   
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MEZ011-            
     016-029.                                                                   
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MEZ017-               
     030-032.                                                                   
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM EST MONDAY FOR             
     ANZ050>052.                                                                
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
NEAR TERM...MIGNONE                                                             
SHORT TERM...STUREY                                                             
LONG TERM...NORTON                                                              
AVIATION...MIGNONE                                                              
MARINE...MIGNONE/STUREY/NORTON                                                  
</pre> me                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
417 PM EST SUN DEC 7 2008                                                       
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
20Z WATER VAPOR LOOP AND RUC 500MB HEIGHT ANALYSIS SHOWED A GENERAL             
WNW FLOW ACROSS NORTH AMERICA...WITH THE MAIN WESTERLIES JET                    
TRACKING FROM WASHINGTON STATE INTO THE CAROLINAS. ALSO TO NOTE IS              
AN UPPER LOW COMING INTO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. WITHIN THE FLOW...A               
TROUGH IS NOTED NEAR VANCOUVER ISLAND AND A FEW SHRTWVS WERE MOVING             
THROUGH ERN ND AND SRN MN. OVER UPPER MI...DESPITE THE WNW                      
FLOW...500MB HEIGHTS HAVE BEEN RISING AS THE UPPER TROUGH THAT WAS              
OVER THE CWA HAS MOVED OFF INTO NEW ENGLAND. THESE HEIGHT RISES HAVE            
RESULTED IN SUBSIDENCE...PRODUCING HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC. THIS               
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE COVERS MUCH OF MI...LAKE SUPERIOR AND LAKE MI.              
DRY AIR AND THE SUBSIDENCE...AS SEEN ON 12Z SOUNDINGS FROM GRB AND              
INL (PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF LESS THAN 0.10 OF AN INCH)...HAVE             
HELPED TO DIMINISH LAKE EFFECT ON BOTH LAKES SUPERIOR AND MI.                   
TEMPERATURES ALOFT STILL REMAIN COLD ENOUGH FOR LAKE EFFECT...                  
THOUGH...WITH 850MB READINGS OF -15C AT GRB...-20C AT CWPL AND AT               
APX. OUTSIDE OF THE LAKE EFFECT...HIGH CLOUDS HAVE BEEN INCREASING              
ACROSS THE CWA FROM THE WEST...ASSOCIATED WITH WARM ADVECTION                   
OCCURRING OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND DPVA FROM THE                   
SHRTWVS CROSSING ND/MN. CLOUDS THICKEN UP THE FARTHER WEST YOU                  
GO...WITH THE REGIONAL RADAR LOOP AND SFC OBS SHOWING -N FROM NW MN             
INTO WRN WI. RADAR LOOP ALSO SHOWS RETURNS FARTHER TO THE NE INTO               
FAR WRN UPPER MI...BUT DRY AIR EVIDENT ON THE 12Z MPX SOUNDING THAT             
HAS MOVED INTO UPPER MI HAS KEPT MUCH OF THIS SNOW FROM REACHING THE            
GROUND. THE WARM ADVECTION GRADIENT WAS ACTUALLY QUITE TIGHT BACK AT            
12Z...WITH BIS AND ABR SHOWING -6C TEMP/0C DEWPOINT DEPRESSION AT               
850MB COMPARED TO THE -13C TEMP/21C DEWPOINT DEPRESSION AT MPX.                 
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT AND MONDAY)...                                             
TROUGH OVER VANCOUVER ISLAND IS PROGGED TO DEEPEN AS IT DIVES DOWN              
INTO THE WESTERN U.S....WHICH ALLOWS IT TO PICK UP THE UPPER LOW                
NEAR SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. BY 00Z TUE...THE UPPER TROUGH IS EXPECTED             
TO BE OVER UTAH AND CO WHILE THE UPPER LOW HEADS EAST INTO WEST                 
TEXAS. DOWNSLOPE MID LEVEL FLOW AND DPVA AHEAD OF THE TROUGH AND LOW            
WILL RESULT IN THE FORMATION OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE                    
OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE...A FEATURE TO WATCH IN THE LONG TERM PORTION OF             
THE FORECAST. FOR THE SHORT TERM...THE DIGGING UPPER TROUGH ALLOWS              
THE MID LEVEL FLOW OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES TO TURN MORE ZONAL.             
HOWEVER...THE FLOW CHANGE WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL THE SHRTWVS IN ND/MN              
MOVE TO THE ESE INTO THE TROUGH OVER NEW ENGLAND. TONIGHT...SOME -SN            
IS POSSIBLE WITH THE WARM ADVECTION AND DPVA FORCING FROM THE                   
SHRTWVS...MOSTLY BEFORE 06Z SINCE THAT IS WHEN THE STRONGEST                    
700-300MB Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE IS PRESENT. A FEW TENTHS OF                      
ACCUMULATION AT BEST IS EXPECTED...THANKS TO THE PRESENCE OF THE LOW            
LEVEL DRY AIR AND LACK OF SIGNIFICANT VERTICAL MOTION. AFTER                    
06Z...DNVA IS INDICATED TO CROSS UPPER MI IN THE WAKE OF THE                    
SHRTWVS. SOME MORE WARM ADVECTION SNOW MAY BEGIN TO FORM AFTER 06Z              
AS WELL...STRETCHING FROM ND...ACROSS CENTRAL MN AND INTO CENTRAL               
WI. THIS SNOW IS ALSO EXPECTED TO BE AIDED BY UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE            
IN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF A 130 KT JET AT 250MB PROGGED OVER              
UPPER MI AT 12Z MON. AS THE FLOW TURNS ZONAL ON MONDAY...THE UPPER              
JET WILL LIFT NORTHWARD...PLACING UPPER MI IN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE                
REGION AND INTO THE WARM ADVECTION. IN FACT...850MB TEMPS ARE SHOWN             
TO WARM FROM -14 TO -16C AT 06Z MON TO -8 TO -10C AT 00Z TUE.                   
THEREFORE...THE -SN THAT DEVELOPS JUST TO OUR SOUTH LATER TONIGHT               
WILL MOVE NORTH INTO THE CWA DURING THE DAY. PCPN AMOUNTS AGAIN DO              
NOT LOOK THAT IMPRESSIVE AS THE VERTICAL MOTION IS NOT THAT                     
STRONG...BUT SOME AREAS IN THE FAR SOUTH CENTRAL COULD PICK UP AN               
INCH. HAVE RAISED POPS ON MONDAY...ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTH CENTRAL.             
THE OTHER ISSUE TO DEAL WITH IN THE SHORT TERM FORECAST IS THE                  
EXPECTED LAKE MICHIGAN BAND. THE CURRENT SFC RIDGE THAT IS OVER THE             
CWA WILL BE SHIFTING EAST DURING THE PERIOD...RESULTING IN SOUTHERLY            
FLOW. SINCE 850MB TEMPS REMAIN COLD TONIGHT AND LAND BREEZES WILL               
DEVELOP OFF LOWER MI THAT CONVERGE ON THE SOUTHERLY FLOW...A SINGLE             
BAND OFF LAKE MICHIGAN IS LIKELY. TRENDS FROM 06Z RUNS AND NOW INTO             
THE 12Z RUNS FROM THE NAM...GFS...LOCAL WRF-ARW AND RUC 13 SUGGEST              
THE BAND MOSTLY IMPACTS MACKINAC COUNTY TONIGHT...SINCE THE LOW                 
LEVEL FLOW IS MAINLY SW. WINDS BACK SOUTH ON MONDAY...WHICH MEANS               
THE LAKE EFFECT BAND WILL BE PUSHING WESTWARD WITH TIME...BUT LIKELY            
NOT MAKING IT FARTHER WEST THAN FAR EASTERN DELTA AND NW SCHOOLCRAFT            
COUNTIES. HOWEVER...THERE IS SOME SUGGESTION BY THE NAM AND REGIONAL            
CANADIAN THAT THE BAND COULD FALL APART. NOT READY TO JUMP ON THIS              
IDEA YET...AND STAY WITH THE GFS/LOCAL WRF-ARW RUN/RUC 13 THAT KEEP             
IT TOGETHER. NONETHELESS...SINCE MORE OF THE BAND IS EXPECTED TO                
STAY OVER MACKINAC COUNTY TONIGHT...THIS LOWERS THE AMOUNT OF SNOW              
THAT COULD HAVE FELL IN OUR CWA. IN FACT...PROGGED QPF AMOUNTS OUT              
OF THE BAND DURING THE DAY MONDAY ARE ONLY UP TO 0.20 OF AN                     
INCH...WHICH WITH SOUNDINGS THAT SUGGEST SNOW TO WATER RATIOS ON                
AVERAGE AROUND 15 TO 1 MEANS THAT SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WILL REACH MAYBE             
4 INCHES. AGAIN..THIS ASSUMES THE BAND CAN STAY IN ONE SPOT. HAVE               
DECIDED TO DROP THE WATCH AND NOT PUT UP ANY ADVISORY...GIVEN THE               
UNCERTAINTY PRESENT OF THE BAND HOLDING TOGETHER OR STAYING IN ONE              
SPOT.                                                                           
TEMPERATURES SHOULD NOT FALL TOO MUCH TONIGHT...WITH FIRST MID/HIGH             
CLOUDS OVERHEAD THIS EVENING WITH -SN TRANSITIONING TO A LOWER                  
STRATUS DECK. RAISED LOWS UP CLOSER TO THE WARMER MAV GUIDANCE. ON              
MONDAY...PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER WILL CONTINUE TO EXIST DUE TO THE                
WARM ADVECTION/UPPER DIVERGENCE FORCING. HOWEVER...THE SOUTHERLY                
FLOW BRINGING WARMER AIR INTO THE CWA SHOULD ALLOW HIGHS TO CLIMB               
INTO THE 20S. WARMEST READINGS EXPECTED IN THE EASTERN CWA WITH HEAT            
FLUX OFF LAKE MICHIGAN.                                                         
LONGER TERM 00Z TUE ONWARD...                                                   
NAM SHOWS A 500 MB RIDGING OFF THE WEST COAST AND ALSO ACROSS THE SE            
WITH TROUGHING ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND CENTRAL U.S. 00Z TUE. THERE IS            
A SHORTWAVE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL HEAD EAST AND AFFECT THE              
UPPER GREAT LAKES MON NIGHT AND TUE WITH A 500 MB TROUGH REMAINING              
OVER THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH WED. NAM SHOWING 850-500 MB Q-VECTOR             
CONVERGENCE AND MOISTURE MON NIGHT WITH THE CONVERGENCE MOVING OUT              
BY 12Z TUE WITH DEEP MOISTURE MOVING OUT ON TUE. SOUTHERN CWA IS ON             
NORTHERN SIDE OF THIS NEXT SYSTEM WITH THE MAJORITY OF THE SYSTEM               
PASSING BY TO THE SOUTH OF CWA. NAM THEN SHOWS SOME 850-500 MB                  
Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE RETURNING ON WED WITH SOME DEEPER MOISTURE                 
AGAIN. NAM SHOWING ISENTROPIC LIFT AND MOISTURE ON I280K-I295K                  
SURFACES 00Z TUE WITH THE LIFT MOVING OUT BY 06Z TUE. SOUTHERN CWA              
STILL LOOKS LIKE IT MIGHT NEED AN ADVISORY OR SOMETHING OUT FOR MON             
NIGHT AND TUE WITH MENOMINEE SEEING ABOUT 6.5 INCHES OF SYSTEM SNOW             
AT THAT TIME. FURTHER NORTH...AIR IS COLD ENOUGH AT 850 MB FOR LAKE             
EFFECT AND WILL HAVE TWO DIFFERENT MECHANISMS BRINGING SNOW TO THE              
AREA...LAKE EFFECT ACROSS THE NORTH AND SYSTEM SNOW TO THE SOUTH.               
EVEN DELTA AND SOUTHERN SCHOOLCRAFT MIGHT NEED ADVISORIES FOR COMBO             
OF LAKE EFFECT AND SYSTEM SNOW. DO NOT THINK LAKE EFFECT WILL GET               
OUT OF HAND EVEN WITH THE NORTH WIND FLOW THAT DEVELOPS EVEN THOUGH             
IT IS COLD ENOUGH. MAIN FACTOR IS DRY AIR TO THE NORTH FROM A COLD              
HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM AND THIS DRY AIR WOULD CUT DOWN ACCUMULATIONS              
AND COVERAGE.                                                                   
LIFT AND MOISTURE THEN RETURNS ON WED AGAIN ON THE I280K-I295K                  
SURFACES ACCORDING TO THE NAM. NAM IS THE ONLY MODEL BRINGING IN                
THIS CLIPPER SYSTEM AS FAST AS IT DOES ON WED...AND WILL NOT USE                
THIS MODEL AFTER WED. WILL USE THE 00Z ECMWF FOR THIS FORECAST. BOTH            
GFS AND ECMWF ARE SLOWER WITH THIS CLIPPER BRINGING IT INTO THE AREA            
WED NIGHT AND THU INSTEAD AND THEY ARE SIMILAR IN THIS REGARD AND               
WILL USE THE ECMWF AND BRING THE SYSTEM IN WED NIGHT AND THU                    
INSTEAD.                                                                        
IN THE EXTENDED...GFS...ECMWF AND CANADIAN SHOW A 500 MB TROUGH OVER            
THE UPPER GREAT LAKES 00Z THU WHICH LINGERS THROUGH SUN. THINGS WILL            
NOT CHANGE MUCH AS AN ALBERTA CLIPPER MOVES THROUGH AND PUSHES A                
COLD FRONT THROUGH WHICH GETS HUNG UP IN LOWER MICHIGAN WITH MORE               
WAVES MOVING ALONG THE FRONT. DID NOT MAKE MANY CHANGES TO THE GOING            
FORECAST EXCEPT TO KEEP CHANCE POPS IN FOR EVERYWHERE WITH EITHER               
CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEMS...LAKE EFFECT...OR COMBO OF THEM BOTH BRINGING             
MOISTURE THROUGH THE AREA. DID NOT SEE ANY REAL SHOT AT A DRY PERIOD            
IN THE EXTENDED FOR NOW. ALSO KEPT TEMPERATURES THE SAME WHICH WERE             
NEAR ENSEMBLE FORECASTS. TEMPERATURES LOOKED TO STAY AT OR BELOW                
NORMAL FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD.                                                 
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION (FOR THE 18Z TAF ISSUANCE)...                                         
LAKE EFFECT MVFR CLOUDS ARE CLOSE TO EXITING BOTH TAF SITES...AND               
SHOULD DO SO IN THE NEXT 1 TO 3 HRS AS FLOW CONTINUES BACKING TO THE            
SW. TO THE WEST...HIGH AND MID CLOUDS ARE APPROACHING FROM MN AND               
WI. FURTHER INTO MN IS SOME -SN ALONG WITH MVFR STRATUS. BOTH THE               
MVFR CLOUDS AND -SN WILL MOVE INTO BOTH TAF SITES THIS EVENING...               
BUT LACK OF SIGNIFICANT FORCING AND INITIAL DRY AIR SHOULD KEEP                 
VSBYS VFR. MVFR STRATUS DECK LOOKS TO HANG AROUND INTO MONDAY. IN               
FACT...IT SHOULD BE ENFORCED LATER MONDAY MORNING AS WARM AIR MOVING            
IN PRODUCES SOME -SN...ADDING EXTRA MOISTURE. -SN EXPECTED TO                   
MOSTLY IMPACT SAW...THOUGH. HAVE LEFT VSBYS AT VFR FOR NOW...BUT                
COULD SEE SOME MVFR VSBYS HAPPENING. UNCERTAINTY AND THE LATE TIME              
THAT THE SNOW OCCURS IN THE FORECAST PRECLUDES ANY MVFR MENTION TO              
THE VSBYS AT THIS TIME.                                                         
&&                                                                              
.MARINE (FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)...                       
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER LAKE SUPERIOR WILL HEAD EAST                      
TONIGHT...ALLOWING FOR SOUTHERLY WINDS OF 15 TO 25 KNOTS TO DEVELOP.            
THESE WINDS WILL DIMINISH ON MONDAY AS A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE                 
MOVES ACROSS. FROM MONDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...A LOW PRESSURE                 
SYSTEM OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS IS EXPECTED TO LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS             
THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTH AND INCREASE             
TO 30 KT MON NIGHT INTO TUE...THEN DIMINISH TUE NIGHT AND WED AS THE            
SYSTEM MOVES AWAY. ANOTHER HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL MOVE ACROSS LAKE            
SUPERIOR ON WED. LOOK FOR SOUTHERLY WINDS TO INCREASE UP TO 30 KT ON            
WED NIGHT INTO THU AS A LOW PRESSURE AREA MOVES OUT OF CANADA INTO              
WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NW AND DIMINISH BELOW            
25 KT THU NIGHT INTO FRI AS THE LOW HEADS EAST INTO EASTERN ONTARIO.            
&&                                                                              
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
UPPER MICHIGAN...NONE.                                                          
LAKE SUPERIOR...NONE.                                                           
LAKE MICHIGAN...NONE.                                                           
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM...AJ                                                        
LONG TERM...GM                                                                  
AVIATION...AJ                                                                   
MARINE...AJ                                                                     
</pre> mi                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
1236 PM EST SUN DEC 7 2008                                                      
UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE                                
.UPDATE... (ISSUED AT 952 AM)                                                   
LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS OVER EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR HAVE BROKEN UP              
QUITE A BIT OVER THE PAST TWO HOURS...DUE TO A COMBINATION OF WIND              
SHEAR IN THE MIXED LAYER SEEN ON THE KMQT VAD WIND PROFILE AND DRY              
AIR FLOWING ACROSS. THEREFORE...WENT AHEAD AND CANCELLED THE WARNING            
FOR ALGER AND NORTHERN SCHOOLCRAFT COUNTIES EARLY. REST OF THE                  
FORECAST FOR TODAY IS IN GOOD SHAPE. MAIN CONCERN THIS AFTERNOON                
WILL BE TO WATCH THE POSITION OF THE FORECAST LAKE EFFECT BAND OFF              
LAKE MICHIGAN. 06Z RUNS SUGGESTED THAT THE BAND MAY IMPACT MOSTLY               
MACKINAC COUNTY TONIGHT...THEN SHIFT WESTWARD ON MONDAY AS THE FLOW             
BACKS MORE SOUTHERLY. IF THIS OCCURS...THEN THE WATCH MAY OR MAY NOT            
PAN OUT...ESPECIALLY IF THE BAND KEEPS MOVING AS SUGGESTED BY THE               
06Z NAM.                                                                        
&&                                                                              
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
COLD UPPER TROUGH WITH H85 TEMPS -15C TO -20C REMAINS IN PLACE FM               
HUDSON BAY INTO THE UPR GREAT LAKES. PRIMARY COLD FRONT IS MOVING               
INTO THE LWR GREAT LAKES AND DIVING INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. NW                
FLOW AND THE COLD TEMPS BEHIND THE FRONT IS PRODUCING MOSTLY                    
MULTIPLE LK EFFECT SNOW BANDS. IR SATELLITE AND RADAR INDICATES                 
HEAVIEST SNOW SHOWERS INTO ALGER COUNTY AND NRN DELTA COUNTY. THIS              
BAND IS STRONGEST DUE TO PRECONDITIONED FLOW OFF LK NIPIGON AND ALSO            
SINCE THE TRAJECTORIES ARE CROSSING THE LONGEST AVAILABLE FETCH                 
ACROSS LK SUPERIOR. MEANWHILE...DRY AIR AND INVERSION BLO H9                    
ASSOCIATED WITH INCOMING SFC RIDGE AND AS SEEN ON 00Z INL/WPL                   
SOUNDINGS...IS LIMITING EXTENT OF LK EFFECT OVR WRN CWA.                        
&&                                                                              
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
ALTHOUGH WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED...LK EFFECT STILL AN ISSUE TODAY AS              
SFC-925MB WINDS STAY NW. EFFECTS OF THE DRY AIR/SUBSIDENCE SEEN                 
UPSTREAM WILL BE OFFSET FOR SNOW SHOWERS EAST OF MARQUETTE AS                   
LOW-LEVEL TRAJECTORIES CROSS LK SUPERIOR THE LONGEST. INVERSION                 
HEIGHT BTWN 5-7KFT AND IDEAL TEMPS WITHIN CLOUD LAYER FOR DENDRITIC             
SNOW GROWTH ENSURES THAT LK EFFECT WILL BE SUFFICIENT AT PRODUCING              
ACCUMS DESPITE NEGATIVE LARGE SCALE FACTORS. BY FAR BEST SNOW WILL              
BE IN SNOWBAND PRECONDITIONED BY LK NIPIGON. MAJORITY OF HIGH RES               
GUIDANCE...NAM/REG CANADIAN/RUC13/LOCAL WRF POINT TO HEAVIEST SNOW              
TO REMAIN IN ALGER/NRN SCHOOLCRAFT AREAS. KEPT WINTER STORM WARNING             
FOR THESE TWO ZONES GIVEN THAT STRONG BAND IS STILL OUT THERE AND               
SNOWFALL RATES UP TO 1"/HR ARE STILL POSSIBLE. OTHERWISE...CANX REST            
OF THE GOING HEADLINES. 925MB WIND FIELD BECOMES DISORGANIZED AFT               
21Z TODAY...AND BY THAT TIME SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD DIMINISH/LIFT                  
OFFSHORE. ELSEWHERE...AS WINDS BACK WITH RIDGE THROUGH HERE...THERE             
COULD BE SOME SUNSHINE. TEMPS WILL REMAIN CHILLY THOUGH WITH MAINLY             
TEENS EXPECTED.                                                                 
SHEARED OUT UPPER WAVE WITH SWATH OF DEEP MOISTURE SWINGS ACROSS UPR            
LAKES. GFS/NAM/LOCAL WRF SIMILAR IN HANDLING THE SYSTEM. ISENTROPIC             
LIFT ON 280K SFC...ROUGHLY 800-700MB...SHOWS STRONGEST LIFT                     
OCCURRING ALONG SW BORDER INTO LK MICHIGAN. KEPT HIGHEST POPS CLOSER            
TO WI BORDER...WITH JUST CHANCE POPS CLOSER TO LK SUPERIOR AS SW                
LOW-LEVEL FLOW MAINLY DOWNSLOPES. UP TO AN INCH OF SNOW NEAR THE WI             
BORDER. MAIN ISSUE WILL BE IN SE CWA NEAR LK MICHIGAN. 925MB WINDS              
BECOME VERY FAVORABLE FOR LK EFFECT OFF LK MICHIGAN INTO SRN                    
SCHOOLCRAFT INTO SRN PORTION OF LUCE COUNTY AFT MIDNIGHT AND INTO               
MONDAY. H85 TEMPS -13C WITH DEEP MOISTURE ADDED FM THE SYSTEM MOVING            
IN FM THE WEST YIELD MORE THAN SUFFICIENT OVER WATER INSTABILITY                
ALTHOUGH EXACT AREA OF HEAVIEST SNOW IS UNCERTAIN. SINCE THE HIGH               
PRESSURE RIDGE LINGERS OVR LWR MICHIGAN AND ONTARIO...INTERACTING               
LAND BREEZES ENHANCE LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE. HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS              
FCST A DOMINANT BAND OVR FAR SE CWA...BUT VARY ON EXACT PLACEMENT.              
WILL SAY THAT THE RUC13 SHOWING A STRONG LAND BREEZE EMERGING FM LWR            
MI...AND SETTING UP THE BAND AS FAR WEST AS DELTA COUNTY WAS NOT                
PREFERRED AS SWRLY 925MB WINDS SHOULD PIN THE LAND BREEZE CLOSER TO             
THE LWR MI SHORE. IN ANY EVENT...COULD SEE WARNING CRITERIA SNOWFALL            
OVR FAR SE CWA FM THIS BAND OF LK EFFECT SO ISSUED A LAKE EFFECT                
SNOW WATCH FOR LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MOST OF MONDAY FOR SOUTHERN                 
SCHOOLCRAFT INTO LUCE.                                                          
OUTSIDE OF LK EFFECT OFF LK MICHIGAN...MONDAY FEATURES LGT SNOW                 
MAINLY AFFECTING THE WI BORDER AREAS DUE TO UPPER LEVEL JET FORCING             
AND PERSISTENT ISENTROPIC ASCENT ON 280K SFC. NW LOW-LEVEL WINDS AND            
H85 TEMPS BLO -10C COULD ALSO PRODUCE LGT LK EFFECT OVR NW UPR MI.              
NEXT ISSUE IS LOW PRESSURE EMERGING FM THE PLAINS LATER TUE. ECMWF              
WAS MOST EMPHATIC WITH THIS SYSTEM LAST COUPLE DAYS...AND OTHER                 
GUIDANCE NOW LOOKS LIKE IT IS TRENDING THIS WAY. ECMWF IDEA WOULD               
BRUSH FAR SOUTH CENTRAL...BASICALLY SRN MNM COUNTY...WITH WIDESPREAD            
SNOW LATE MON NIGHT THROUGH TUE NIGHT. PRIMARY SYSTEM SNOW SHOULD               
STAY SOUTH OF CWA...BUT ADVY MAY BE NEEDED IN THE SCNTRL. NRLY FLOW             
OVR LK SUPERIOR WITH COOLING WILL LEAD TO LK EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS                
INCREASING IN THE TUE/WED PERIOD.                                               
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION (FOR THE 18Z TAF ISSUANCE)...                                         
LAKE EFFECT MVFR CLOUDS ARE CLOSE TO EXITING BOTH TAF SITES...AND               
SHOULD DO SO IN THE NEXT 1 TO 3 HRS AS FLOW CONTINUES BACKING TO THE            
SW. TO THE WEST...HIGH AND MID CLOUDS ARE APPROACHING FROM MN AND               
WI. FURTHER INTO MN IS SOME -SN ALONG WITH MVFR STRATUS. BOTH THE               
MVFR CLOUDS AND -SN WILL MOVE INTO BOTH TAF SITES THIS EVENING...               
BUT LACK OF SIGNIFICANT FORCING AND INITIAL DRY AIR SHOULD KEEP                 
VSBYS VFR. MVFR STRATUS DECK LOOKS TO HANG AROUND INTO MONDAY. IN               
FACT...IT SHOULD BE ENFORCED LATER MONDAY MORNING AS WARM AIR MOVING            
IN PRODUCES SOME -SN...ADDING EXTRA MOISTURE. -SN EXPECTED TO                   
MOSTLY IMPACT SAW...THOUGH. HAVE LEFT VSBYS AT VFR FOR NOW...BUT                
COULD SEE SOME MVFR VSBYS HAPPENING. UNCERTAINTY AND THE LATE TIME              
THAT THE SNOW OCCURS IN THE FORECAST PRECLUDES ANY MVFR MENTION TO              
THE VSBYS AT THIS TIME.                                                         
&&                                                                              
.MARINE (FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)...                       
AS A LOW PRESSURE CENTER OVER SOUTHEAST CANADA CONTINUES TO THE EAST            
TODAY...A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL MIGRATE ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT               
LAKES BY THIS EVENING AND INTO NEW ENGLAND BY LATE MONDAY. STRONG N             
WINDS EARLY TODAY WILL DIMINISH QUICKLY AS THIS RIDGE APPROACHES. IN            
THE WAKE OF THE RIDGE...EXPECT A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH TO DRIFT OVER              
LAKE SUPERIOR ON MONDAY NIGHT. ONCE THIS TROUGH PUSHES TO THE EAST              
ON TUESDAY...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER MISSOURI WILL MOVE NORTHEAST            
ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AND TO THE ST LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY BY             
EARLY WEDNESDAY. NORTH WINDS ON THE NORTHERN FLANK OF THIS LOW TRACK            
MAY REACH 30 KNOTS OVER CENTRAL AND EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR ON TUESDAY            
AND TUESDAY NIGHT. A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL FOLLOW ACROSS THE                 
UPPER GREAT LAKES ON WEDNESDAY BEFORE ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM               
MOVES EAST FROM THE PLAINS TO NEAR UPPER MICHIGAN ON THURSDAY.                  
RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS WILL PREVAIL ON THESE TWO DAYS.                          
&&                                                                              
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
UPPER MICHIGAN...                                                               
  LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY                       
    AFTERNOON FOR MIZ007-014.                                                   
LAKE SUPERIOR...NONE.                                                           
LAKE MICHIGAN...NONE.                                                           
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
UPDATE...AJ                                                                     
SYNOPSIS/DISCUSSION...JLA                                                       
AVIATION...AJ                                                                   
MARINE...KC                                                                     
</pre> mi                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK                                              
102 PM CST SUN DEC 7 2008                                                       
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
RH VALUES CONTINUE TO FALL WITH READINGS NEAR OR BELOW 20 PERCENT               
IN PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL AND CENTRAL OKLAHOMA EARLY THIS                    
AFTERNOON. RUC CONTINUES TO KEEP AN AXIS OF HIGHER DEWPOINTS                    
ACROSS SOUTHWEST TO NORTH CENTRAL SECTIONS... AND WHILE DEWPOINTS               
ARE A FEW DEGREES HIGHER IN THIS AREA PER MESONET AND ASOSES...                 
THE 00HR ANALYSIS SHOWING 18Z DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 30S IN NORTH               
CENTRAL OKLAHOMA SUGGEST THAT SOME OF THE HIGH AWOS DEWPOINTS ARE               
GETTING INTO THE ANALYSIS AND FORECAST. BUT THESE FEW DEGREES IN                
QUESTION ARE ENOUGH TO WARRANT PUTTING THE ENTIRE AREA UNDER THE                
RED FLAG WARNING. WIND CRITERIA MAY BE MARGINAL IN THE                          
SOUTHEAST... BUT WILL NOT TRY TO BE TOO CUTE AND THE RED FLAG                   
WARNING IS BEING EXPANDED TO THE ENTIRE AREA. RFW IS ALREADY                    
OUT... AND WILL BE UPDATING GRIDS TO GET THE REMAINDER OF THE                   
PACKAGE UPDATED SOON. THIS UPDATE WILL INCLUDE RAISING MAX                      
TEMPERATURES FURTHER AS SOME LOCATIONS ARE ALREADY APPROACHING THE              
MAXES FROM THIS MORNINGS UPDATE.                                                
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1040 AM CST SUN DEC 7 2008/                         
DISCUSSION...                                                                   
HAVE UPGRADED FIRE WEATHER WATCH TO RED FLAG WARNING FOR MOST OF                
THE WATCH AREA... AND ADDED HARPER COUNTY AS WELL. RUC SEEMS TO BE              
DOING THE BEST WITH CURRENT DEWPOINT TRENDS AND IT BRINGS                       
AFTERNOON RH READINGS DOWN TO SUB-20 PERCENT IN THE WESTERN                     
PORTION OF THE AREA... DESPITE CURRENTLY BEING ABOUT 5 DEGREES                  
COOL ON SURFACE TEMPERATURES AT 16Z AND AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES                  
BELOW OUR FORECAST. WOODWARD MESONET IS ALREADY DOWN TO 22                      
PERCENT RELATIVE HUMIDITY AT 16Z WITH A FEW OTHER SITES IN                      
NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA BELOW 30 PERCENT ALREADY. DID NOT INCLUDE                    
DEWEY/CUSTER/WASHITA COUNTIES IN THE UPGRADE AS RH VALUES ARE                   
EXPECTED TO BE SOMEWHAT HIGHER... BUT IT MAY BE CLOSE TO RED FLAG               
CRITERIA BRIEFLY IN PORTIONS OF THESE COUNTIES AND THE FIRE                     
WEATHER CONCERNS ARE STILL QUITE ELEVATED HERE. AS FAR AS THE                   
GRIDS GO... HAVE REPOPULATED THE DEWPOINTS WITH THE RUC GIVEN ITS               
BETTER CURRENT TRENDS IN THIS FIELD. HAVE RAISED MAX TEMPERATURES               
JUST A TOUCH AS WELL AREAWIDE.                                                  
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 443 AM CST SUN DEC 7 2008/                           
DISCUSSION...SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE TODAY..ESP IN WESTERN                
OK. THIS COMBINED WITH WARM TEMPS AND LOW RH WILL INCREASE FIRE WX              
CONCERNS. CONDITIONS LOOK MARGINAL FOR RE FLAG THIS AFTERNOON SO                
WILL LEAVE FIRE WX WATCH IN PLACE. ACTIVE WEATHER EXPECTED ACROSS               
THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. LEAD WAVE EXPECTED TO                 
EJECT INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS ON MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT. STRONG                   
SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL CONTINUE WITH INCREASED MOISTURE                  
WORKING NORTHWARD INTO THE FA AHEAD OF THE APCHG S/W TROUGH.                    
SUFFICIENT ELEVATED INSTABILITY WILL BE IN PLACE FOR SOME                       
THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY OVER CENTRAL AND EASTERN SECTIONS. MAIN                    
SYSTEM DROPS FROM CENTRAL ROCKIES INTO NM THEN EASTWARD ACROSS                  
SOUTHERN PLAINS. COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO PUSH INTO NWRN OK LATE                  
MONDAY THEN PUSH SEWD ACROSS MUCH OF THE FA BY TUESDAY MORNING.                 
STEADY OR FALLING TEMPS EXPECTED ON TUESDAY AS COLDER AIR SURGES                
ON BRISK NORTH WINDS. EXPECT PRECIP TO CHANGEOVER TO SNOW IN THE                
NW LATE MONDAY NIGHT WITH RAIN BECOMING MIXED WITH OR CHANGING TO               
SNOW ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA ON TUESDAY. ATTM IT LOOKS LIKE THE                 
HEAVIEST WINTRY PRECIPITATION MAY FALL NORTH OF THE FA BUT SOME                 
ACCUMULATING SNOWS ARE POSSIBLE...MAINLY OVER NORTHERN OK. SOME                 
LIGHT PRECIP MAY LINGER INTO TUESDAY EVENING IN ERN SECS. DRY                   
WEATHER EXPECTED THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PD.                              
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  64  44  63  40 /   0   0  30  60                              
HOBART OK         66  45  64  38 /   0   0  10  40                              
WICHITA FALLS TX  69  47  69  46 /   0   0  10  40                              
GAGE OK           67  37  60  31 /   0   0  30  40                              
PONCA CITY OK     62  45  59  37 /   0   0  30  70                              
DURANT OK         64  47  62  57 /   0   0  30  70                              
&&                                                                              
.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
OK...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR OKZ004>048-             
     050>052.                                                                   
TX...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR TXZ083>090.             
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
01/01                                                                           
</pre> ok                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK                                              
1040 AM CST SUN DEC 7 2008                                                      
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
HAVE UPGRADED FIRE WEATHER WATCH TO RED FLAG WARNING FOR MOST OF                
THE WATCH AREA... AND ADDED HARPER COUNTY AS WELL. RUC SEEMS TO BE              
DOING THE BEST WITH CURRENT DEWPOINT TRENDS AND IT BRINGS                       
AFTERNOON RH READINGS DOWN TO SUB-20 PERCENT IN THE WESTERN                     
PORTION OF THE AREA... DESPITE CURRENTLY BEING ABOUT 5 DEGREES                  
COOL ON SURFACE TEMPERATURES AT 16Z AND AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES                  
BELOW OUR FORECAST. WOODWARD MESONET IS ALREADY DOWN TO 22                      
PERCENT RELATIVE HUMIDITY AT 16Z WITH A FEW OTHER SITES IN                      
NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA BELOW 30 PERCENT ALREADY. DID NOT INCLUDE                    
DEWEY/CUSTER/WASHITA COUNTIES IN THE UPGRADE AS RH VALUES ARE                   
EXPECTED TO BE SOMEWHAT HIGHER... BUT IT MAY BE CLOSE TO RED FLAG               
CRITERIA BRIEFLY IN PORTIONS OF THESE COUNTIES AND THE FIRE                     
WEATHER CONCERNS ARE STILL QUITE ELEVATED HERE. AS FAR AS THE                   
GRIDS GO... HAVE REPOPULATED THE DEWPOINTS WITH THE RUC GIVEN ITS               
BETTER CURRENT TRENDS IN THIS FIELD. HAVE RAISED MAX TEMPERATURES               
JUST A TOUCH AS WELL AREAWIDE.                                                  
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 443 AM CST SUN DEC 7 2008/                          
DISCUSSION...SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE TODAY..ESP IN WESTERN                
OK. THIS COMBINED WITH WARM TEMPS AND LOW RH WILL INCREASE FIRE WX              
CONCERNS. CONDITIONS LOOK MARGINAL FOR RE FLAG THIS AFTERNOON SO                
WILL LEAVE FIRE WX WATCH IN PLACE. ACTIVE WEATHER EXPECTED ACROSS               
THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. LEAD WAVE EXPECTED TO                 
EJECT INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS ON MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT. STRONG                   
SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL CONTINUE WITH INCREASED MOISTURE                  
WORKING NORTHWARD INTO THE FA AHEAD OF THE APCHG S/W TROUGH.                    
SUFFICIENT ELEVATED INSTABILITY WILL BE IN PLACE FOR SOME                       
THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY OVER CENTRAL AND EASTERN SECTIONS. MAIN                    
SYSTEM DROPS FROM CENTRAL ROCKIES INTO NM THEN EASTWARD ACROSS                  
SOUTHERN PLAINS. COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO PUSH INTO NWRN OK LATE                  
MONDAY THEN PUSH SEWD ACROSS MUCH OF THE FA BY TUESDAY MORNING.                 
STEADY OR FALLING TEMPS EXPECTED ON TUESDAY AS COLDER AIR SURGES                
ON BRISK NORTH WINDS. EXPECT PRECIP TO CHANGEOVER TO SNOW IN THE                
NW LATE MONDAY NIGHT WITH RAIN BECOMING MIXED WITH OR CHANGING TO               
SNOW ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA ON TUESDAY. ATTM IT LOOKS LIKE THE                 
HEAVIEST WINTRY PRECIPITATION MAY FALL NORTH OF THE FA BUT SOME                 
ACCUMULATING SNOWS ARE POSSIBLE...MAINLY OVER NORTHERN OK. SOME                 
LIGHT PRECIP MAY LINGER INTO TUESDAY EVENING IN ERN SECS. DRY                   
WEATHER EXPECTED THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PD.                              
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  64  44  63  40 /   0   0  30  60                              
HOBART OK         66  45  64  38 /   0   0  10  40                              
WICHITA FALLS TX  69  47  69  46 /   0   0  10  40                              
GAGE OK           67  37  60  31 /   0   0  30  40                              
PONCA CITY OK     62  45  59  37 /   0   0  30  70                              
DURANT OK         64  47  62  57 /   0   0  30  70                              
&&                                                                              
.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
OK...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR OKZ004-009-             
     010-014-021-033>037.                                                       
TX...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR TXZ083>089.             
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</pre> ok                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY                                            
932 AM MST SUN DEC 7 2008                                                       
.UPDATE...SMALL BAND OF VERY LIGHT SHOWERS/SPRINKLES PERSISTS THIS              
MORNING FROM N OF KLAR TO S OF KBFF TO W OF KSNY. SO...HAVE                     
EXTENDED THESE THROUGH 18Z ALTHOUGH THEY SHOULD BE GONE AFTER                   
THAT. ALSO...UPDATED TEMP GRIDS FOR WARMER CURRENT NUMBERS. JLH                 
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 316 AM MST SUN DEC 7 2008/                          
SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...                                      
WEAK RETURNS ON THE KCYS 88D CONTINUE EARLY THIS MORNING OVER THE               
WEST PART OF THE CWA.  MOST OF THE MOISTURE REMAINS ABOVE 700 MB                
AND WITH CURRENT FAIRLY LARGE SURFACE TEMPERATURE AND DEW POINT                 
SPREADS VERY LITTLE PRECIPITATION SHOULD REACH THE GROUND.  THE                 
RUC DEPICTS SOME LIGHT QPF OVER THE WEST PART OF THE CWA THROUGH                
15Z.  WILL PLACE LOW POPS OVER THAT AREA FIRST THING THIS MORNING.              
OTHERWISE FOR TODAY...FAST NORTHWEST WIND FLOW ALOFT WILL PERSIST               
ACROSS THE REGION.  THE SURFACE BOUNDARY CURRENTLY OVER THE FAR                 
EAST PART OF WYOMING WILL BE ERODED FROM WEST TO EAST.  BEHIND                  
THE BOUNDARY ARE VERY MILD TEMPERATURES...WITH 20S CURRENTLY OVER               
PARTS OF THE WESTERN PANHANDLE.  THE 700 MB TEMPERATURES WILL BE                
ABOVE ZERO TODAY AND WITH THE WEST WINDS...HIGHS SHOULD AGAIN BE                
ABOVE NORMAL.  LOW LEVEL HEIGHT DIFFERENCES ARE NOT AS LARGE AS THE             
PAST FEW DAYS OVER THE REGION AND SUGGEST THAT WINDS WILL NOT BE AS             
AS STRONG TODAY.  THE FLOW ALOFT BACKS TONIGHT AND MUCH OF MONDAY               
IN ADVANCE OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE PACIFIC                   
NORTHWEST.  THE CURRENT UPPER LOW JUST OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST                 
WILL BE CAUGHT UP IN THE FLOW ALOFT AND FILL AS IT MOVES ACROSS                 
NEW MEXICO AND SOUTHERN COLORADO TONIGHT.  THAT WILL START SURFACE              
CYCLOGENESIS OVER EXTREME SOUTHEAST COLORADO.  A PACIFIC FRONT                  
ASSOCIATED WITH THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL ALSO                
MOVE ACROSS THE CWA TONIGHT.  BOUNDARY LAYER UPSLOPE WIND FLOW                  
WILL START LATER TONIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING AND MOISTURE WILL BE                
INCREASING IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE                   
TROUGH.  SNOW WILL DEVELOP FROM THE NORTHWEST PART OF THE CWA TO                
THE SOUTHEAST DURING THE DAY MONDAY.  THE SREF AND GFS SPREAD THE               
SNOW MORE QUICKLY SOUTHEAST THAN DOES THE NAM.  AT THIS TIME IT                 
LOOKS LIKE THE MORE SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL WILL BE MONDAY AFTERNOON               
AND EARLY MONDAY NIGHT.  THAT IS THE TIME FRAME WHERE THE MOISTURE              
IS DEEPEST AND THE BEST DYNAMICS AND SURFACE FORCING WILL BE OVER               
THE CWA.  HAVE INCREASED POPS AND SNOWFALL AMOUNTS DURING THAT                  
TIME WITH 2 TO 4 INCHES OVER MOST OF THE LOWER ELEVATIONS BY 12Z                
TUESDAY AND 5 TO 9 INCHES IN THE MOUNTAINS.  THOSE AMOUNTS GENERALLY            
FIT THE HPC GUIDANCE FOR THE CWA.  AT THIS TIME...WILL HOLD OFF ON              
THE ISSUANCE OF ANY HIGHLIGHTS FOR THIS QUICK SNOW EVENT.  THE                  
SNOWFALL WILL TAPER OFF FROM NORTH TO SOUTH AFTER 06Z TUESDAY AS THE            
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES EAST OF THE CWA AND THE SURFACE UPSLOPE                  
WEAKENS.  THE TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH COOLER MONDAY AND MONDAY                
NIGHT THAN THOSE OF TODAY AND TONIGHT.                                          
LONG TERM...NW FLOW WILL BE ALOFT OVER THE FORECAST AREA FROM TUES              
THROUGH THURSDAY AS A HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER RIDGE REMAINS ON THE WEST            
COAST.  VERY WINDY CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE AREA ON WED AND             
THUR.  MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE               
DURING THIS TIME PERIOD...WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW WEST OF THE              
LARAMIE RANGE.  WITH A BETTER CHANCE OF SNOW IN THE MOUNTAINS.  A               
SERIES OF DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE ACROSS THE CWA FRIDAY AS CYCLONIC              
FLOW OCCURS ALOFT DUE TO A BROAD UPPER TROUGH OVER MUCH OF THE U.S.             
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE CWA IN THE              
MORNING AND WILL MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA BY EVENING.  THIS                
WILL RESULT IN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW FOR MUCH OF THE AREA.  A                 
STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE CWA ON SAT AND                   
DEEP...MOIST UPSLOPE FLOW WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE FORECAST                        
AREA...RESULTING IN A CHANCE OF SNOW FOR THE CWA.  THE ECMWF IS                 
FARTHER WEST WITH THE UPPER TROUGH AND IS SLOWER TO BRING IT                    
EAST...WHICH WOULD RESULT IN LATER TIMING OF THE SYSTEM.  HIGH                  
TEMPERATURES WILL BE FROM 5 TO 8 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR TUES...5              
TO 8 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR WED AND THU...AND AROUND NORMAL FOR               
FRI AND SAT.                                                                    
AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE OVER THE CWA THROUGH TONIGHT.                 
WEST WINDS WILL GUST TO BETWEEN 25 AND 35 KNOTS ALONG AND WEST OF               
THE LARAMIE RANGE TODAY WITH WEAK MOUNTAIN WAVE ACTIVITY.  MVFR AND             
IFR CONDITIONS IN SNOW AND MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION WILL SPREAD FROM                
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST OVER THE CWA ON MONDAY AND CONTINUE FOR                  
MOST OF MONDAY NIGHT.                                                           
&&                                                                              
.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
WY...NONE.                                                                      
NE...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHORT TERM/AVIATION...WEILAND                                                   
LONG TERM...KMD                                                                 
</pre> wy