AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO                                              
717 AM MDT SUN MAR 9 2008                                                       
.UPDATED...                                                                     
CANCELLED THE FINAL PORTION OF THE SNOW ADVISORY ACROSS THE WET                 
MOUNTAINS...SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS...AND SOUTHERN FOOTHILLS                 
BASED ON DECREASING COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF SNOWFALL PER PUB                  
RADAR DATA.                                                                     
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 601 AM MDT SUN MAR 9 2008/                          
UPDATE...                                                                       
(THIS MORNING)                                                                  
SNOW HAS BEEN QUICKLY WANING ACROSS CHAFFEE AND FREMONT                         
COUNTY EARLY THIS MORNING. THUS AS ANTICIPATED IN DISCUSSION                    
BELOW...HAVE BEGUN THE PROCESS OF PARING OUT NORTHERN SECTIONS OF               
THE ADVISORY AREA.                                                              
SHORT TERM...                                                                   
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)                                                             
UPPER LOW BACK OVER NRN AZ/NW NM WILL CONTINUE TO DROP SOUTHEASTWARD            
INTO EXTREME SOUTHERN NM BY 00Z MON.  CURRENT RADAR INDICATES SOME              
FAIRLY WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION ECHOES ALONG THE EASTERN SLOPES OF              
THE SE MTS...MAINLY WETS...SANGRES...AND THE ARKANSAS RIVER VALLEY              
OF FREMONT COUNTY.  MYP HAS BEEN REPORTING +SN OFF AND ON...AND WEB             
CAMS FROM UP THAT WAY SUGGEST A COUPLE INCHES OR SO MAY HAVE                    
ACCUMULATED SINCE AROUND MIDNIGHT.  OVERALL...SYSTEM NOT THAT                   
IMPRESSIVE IN SATELLITE LOOPS.  BEST DYNAMICS/ISENTROPIC LIFT IS                
OCCURRING NOW THROUGH AROUND 15Z...THEN IT WANES QUICKLY THROUGH THE            
LATE MORNING AS THE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO DROP SOUTHWARD.  DEFORMATION            
BAND APPEARS PRETTY FRAGMENTED AND ILL DEFINED.  WILL MAINTAIN THE              
SNOW ADVISORY FOR MOST AREAS...THOUGH WILL BEGIN TO SHAVE OFF SOME              
OF THE NORTHERN SECTIONS OF LAKE AND EASTERN CHAFFEE COUNTIES.  H7              
WINDS DON`T APPEAR ALL THAT STRONG IN EITHER MODEL NOW...NAM OR                 
GFS...SO DON`T THINK WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE SAN LUIS VALLEY WILL               
RECEIVE MUCH IN THE WAY OF HEAVY SNOW...SO WILL ALSO REMOVE THE                 
ADVISORY FOR ZONE 65.  FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE ADVISORY                        
AREA...TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 8 INCHES CAN BE EXPECTED...WITH              
THE HEAVIEST ACCUMS ALONG THE EAST SLOPES OF THE WETS AND SANGRES.              
SNOW WILL GRADUALLY END BY THIS AFTERNOON FOR MOST AREAS AS WEAK                
EASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW BECOMES MORE SOUTHWESTERLY.                               
LEE TROF REDEVELOPS TOWARDS DAWN...AND H7 TEMPS BEHIND THIS SYSTEM              
ARE NOT ALL THAT COLD.  MIN TEMPS MAY BE HIT AROUND/BEFORE                      
MIDNIGHT...WITH WESTERLY DRAINAGE FLOW KICKING IN ACROSS THE LOWER              
EASTERN SLOPES AFTER 06Z CAUSING TEMPS TO STAY STEADY...OR EVEN WARM            
SLIGHTLY. -KT                                                                   
LONG TERM...                                                                    
(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)                                                       
..ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN TO CONTINUE THIS WEEK...                               
MONDAY...INTERESTING LITTLE WEATHER FEATURE TO DROP SOUTHWARD ON                
THE BACKSIDE OF THE WEATHER SYSTEM CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH THE                 
GREAT BASIN. THE WEATHER FEATURE...UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK AND                   
ASSOCIATED LOW/SHORTWAVE TROUGH...IS CURRENTLY OVER WESTERN MT PER              
WATER VAPOR AND RUC MODEL UPPER AIR ANALYSES. GFS/ECMWF HAS THIS                
FEATURE DROPPING THROUGH WESTERN CO DURING MONDAY AFTERNOON. NAM-               
WRF KIND OF HAS THIS FEATURE...BUT NOT PRINTING OUT MUCH IN THE                 
WAY OF QPF. WEATHER FEATURE SHOULD BE MOVING THROUGH THE CENTRAL                
ROCKIES DURING PEAK HEATING AND INSTABILITY...MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATE               
OF 7-8 C/KM WOULD SUPPORT AT LEAST A SMALL CHANCE FOR CONVECTIVE                
PRECIPITATION OVER THE MOUNTAINS/HIGH VALLEYS. THE CURRENT                      
FORECAST HAS SOMETHING TO THIS EXTENT...BUT POPS MIGHT NEED TO BE               
BUMPED UP A LITTLE OVER THE MOUNTAINS/HIGH VALLEYS IF FUTURE                    
MODELS CONTINUE THIS TREND.                                                     
TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...OVERALL A PROGRESSIVE WESTERLY FLOW                  
PATTERN APPEARS TO BE TAKING SHAPE WITH WEATHER FEATURES MOVING                 
RAPIDLY THROUGH THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. IN GENERAL...TEMPERATURES ARE              
FORECAST TO BE AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE MARCH AVERAGE READINGS. THE                 
BETTER CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS...               
ESPECIALLY THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE WEDNESDAY AND AGAIN FRIDAY AND                
SATURDAY. POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR MORE SNOWFALL ACROSS THE                         
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. BREEZY/WINDY CONDITIONS                 
WILL BE LIKELY TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. 17                                     
AVIATION...                                                                     
MVFR/VFR CIGS EXPECTED ACROSS KCOS/KPUB TAF SITES THROUGH THE                   
MORNING...WITH CLEARING SKIES BY LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.  FOR               
THE SOUTHERN MTS/FOOTHILLS/HIGH VALLEYS...WIDESPREAD SNOW SHOWERS               
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING WITH IFR TO LIFR CIGS ALONG THE               
EASTERN SLOPES AND HIGHER TERRAIN WHERE EASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW WILL              
CONTINUE.  KALS MAY SEE SOME MVFR TO BRIEF IFR UNDER SNOW SHOWERS               
THROUGH THE MORNING.  IMPROVING CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR ALL OF THE              
AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH SOME PERSISTENT ISOLATED             
TO SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUING ALONG THE CONTDVD THROUGH THE              
EVENING. -KT                                                                    
&&                                                                              
.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
NONE.                                                                           
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
17/17                                                                           
</pre> co                                                                       
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO                                              
601 AM MDT SUN MAR 9 2008                                                       
.UPDATE...                                                                      
(THIS MORNING)                                                                  
SNOW HAS BEEN QUICKLY WANING ACROSS CHAFFEE AND FREMONT                         
COUNTY EARLY THIS MORNING. THUS AS ANTICIPATED IN DISCUSSION                    
BELOW...HAVE BEGUN THE PROCESS OF PARING OUT NORTHERN SECTIONS OF               
THE ADVISORY AREA.                                                              
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM...                                                                  
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)                                                             
UPPER LOW BACK OVER NRN AZ/NW NM WILL CONTINUE TO DROP SOUTHEASTWARD            
INTO EXTREME SOUTHERN NM BY 00Z MON.  CURRENT RADAR INDICATES SOME              
FAIRLY WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION ECHOES ALONG THE EASTERN SLOPES OF              
THE SE MTS...MAINLY WETS...SANGRES...AND THE ARKANSAS RIVER VALLEY              
OF FREMONT COUNTY.  MYP HAS BEEN REPORTING +SN OFF AND ON...AND WEB             
CAMS FROM UP THAT WAY SUGGEST A COUPLE INCHES OR SO MAY HAVE                    
ACCUMULATED SINCE AROUND MIDNIGHT.  OVERALL...SYSTEM NOT THAT                   
IMPRESSIVE IN SATELLITE LOOPS.  BEST DYNAMICS/ISENTROPIC LIFT IS                
OCCURRING NOW THROUGH AROUND 15Z...THEN IT WANES QUICKLY THROUGH THE            
LATE MORNING AS THE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO DROP SOUTHWARD.  DEFORMATION            
BAND APPEARS PRETTY FRAGMENTED AND ILL DEFINED.  WILL MAINTAIN THE              
SNOW ADVISORY FOR MOST AREAS...THOUGH WILL BEGIN TO SHAVE OFF SOME              
OF THE NORTHERN SECTIONS OF LAKE AND EASTERN CHAFFEE COUNTIES.  H7              
WINDS DON`T APPEAR ALL THAT STRONG IN EITHER MODEL NOW...NAM OR                 
GFS...SO DON`T THINK WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE SAN LUIS VALLEY WILL               
RECEIVE MUCH IN THE WAY OF HEAVY SNOW...SO WILL ALSO REMOVE THE                 
ADVISORY FOR ZONE 65.  FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE ADVISORY                        
AREA...TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 8 INCHES CAN BE EXPECTED...WITH              
THE HEAVIEST ACCUMS ALONG THE EAST SLOPES OF THE WETS AND SANGRES.              
SNOW WILL GRADUALLY END BY THIS AFTERNOON FOR MOST AREAS AS WEAK                
EASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW BECOMES MORE SOUTHWESTERLY.                               
LEE TROF REDEVELOPS TOWARDS DAWN...AND H7 TEMPS BEHIND THIS SYSTEM              
ARE NOT ALL THAT COLD.  MIN TEMPS MAY BE HIT AROUND/BEFORE                      
MIDNIGHT...WITH WESTERLY DRAINAGE FLOW KICKING IN ACROSS THE LOWER              
EASTERN SLOPES AFTER 06Z CAUSING TEMPS TO STAY STEADY...OR EVEN WARM            
SLIGHTLY. -KT                                                                   
.LONG TERM...                                                                   
(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)                                                       
...ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN TO CONTINUE THIS WEEK...                              
MONDAY...INTERESTING LITTLE WEATHER FEATURE TO DROP SOUTHWARD ON                
THE BACKSIDE OF THE WEATHER SYSTEM CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH THE                 
GREAT BASIN. THE WEATHER FEATURE...UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK AND                   
ASSOCIATED LOW/SHORTWAVE TROUGH...IS CURRENTLY OVER WESTERN MT PER              
WATER VAPOR AND RUC MODEL UPPER AIR ANALYSES. GFS/ECMWF HAS THIS                
FEATURE DROPPING THROUGH WESTERN CO DURING MONDAY AFTERNOON. NAM-               
WRF KIND OF HAS THIS FEATURE...BUT NOT PRINTING OUT MUCH IN THE                 
WAY OF QPF. WEATHER FEATURE SHOULD BE MOVING THROUGH THE CENTRAL                
ROCKIES DURING PEAK HEATING AND INSTABILITY...MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATE               
OF 7-8 C/KM WOULD SUPPORT AT LEAST A SMALL CHANCE FOR CONVECTIVE                
PRECIPITATION OVER THE MOUNTAINS/HIGH VALLEYS. THE CURRENT                      
FORECAST HAS SOMETHING TO THIS EXTENT...BUT POPS MIGHT NEED TO BE               
BUMPED UP A LITTLE OVER THE MOUNTAINS/HIGH VALLEYS IF FUTURE                    
MODELS CONTINUE THIS TREND.                                                     
TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...OVERALL A PROGRESSIVE WESTERLY FLOW                  
PATTERN APPEARS TO BE TAKING SHAPE WITH WEATHER FEATURES MOVING                 
RAPIDLY THROUGH THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. IN GENERAL...TEMPERATURES ARE              
FORECAST TO BE AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE MARCH AVERAGE READINGS. THE                 
BETTER CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS...               
ESPECIALLY THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE WEDNESDAY AND AGAIN FRIDAY AND                
SATURDAY. POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR MORE SNOWFALL ACROSS THE                         
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. BREEZY/WINDY CONDITIONS                 
WILL BE LIKELY TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. METZE                                  
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
MVFR/VFR CIGS EXPECTED ACROSS KCOS/KPUB TAF SITES THROUGH THE                   
MORNING...WITH CLEARING SKIES BY LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.  FOR               
THE SOUTHERN MTS/FOOTHILLS/HIGH VALLEYS...WIDESPREAD SNOW SHOWERS               
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING WITH IFR TO LIFR CIGS ALONG THE               
EASTERN SLOPES AND HIGHER TERRAIN WHERE EASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW WILL              
CONTINUE.  KALS MAY SEE SOME MVFR TO BRIEF IFR UNDER SNOW SHOWERS               
THROUGH THE MORNING.  IMPROVING CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR ALL OF THE              
AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH SOME PERSISTENT ISOLATED             
TO SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUING ALONG THE CONTDVD THROUGH THE              
EVENING. -KT                                                                    
&&                                                                              
.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL NOON MDT TODAY FOR COZ072>075-078>080-087-                  
088.                                                                            
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
31/17                                                                           
</pre> co                                                                       
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO                                              
349 AM MDT SUN MAR 9 2008                                                       
.SHORT TERM...                                                                  
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)                                                             
UPPER LOW BACK OVER NRN AZ/NW NM WILL CONTINUE TO DROP SOUTHEASTWARD            
INTO EXTREME SOUTHERN NM BY 00Z MON.  CURRENT RADAR INDICATES SOME              
FAIRLY WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION ECHOES ALONG THE EASTERN SLOPES OF              
THE SE MTS...MAINLY WETS...SANGRES...AND THE ARKANSAS RIVER VALLEY              
OF FREMONT COUNTY.  MYP HAS BEEN REPORTING +SN OFF AND ON...AND WEB             
CAMS FROM UP THAT WAY SUGGEST A COUPLE INCHES OR SO MAY HAVE                    
ACCUMULATED SINCE AROUND MIDNIGHT.  OVERALL...SYSTEM NOT THAT                   
IMPRESSIVE IN SATELLITE LOOPS.  BEST DYNAMICS/ISENTROPIC LIFT IS                
OCCURRING NOW THROUGH AROUND 15Z...THEN IT WANES QUICKLY THROUGH THE            
LATE MORNING AS THE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO DROP SOUTHWARD.  DEFORMATION            
BAND APPEARS PRETTY FRAGMENTED AND ILL DEFINED.  WILL MAINTAIN THE              
SNOW ADVISORY FOR MOST AREAS...THOUGH WILL BEGIN TO SHAVE OFF SOME              
OF THE NORTHERN SECTIONS OF LAKE AND EASTERN CHAFFEE COUNTIES.  H7              
WINDS DON`T APPEAR ALL THAT STRONG IN EITHER MODEL NOW...NAM OR                 
GFS...SO DON`T THINK WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE SAN LUIS VALLEY WILL               
RECEIVE MUCH IN THE WAY OF HEAVY SNOW...SO WILL ALSO REMOVE THE                 
ADVISORY FOR ZONE 65.  FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE ADVISORY                        
AREA...TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 8 INCHES CAN BE EXPECTED...WITH              
THE HEAVIEST ACCUMS ALONG THE EAST SLOPES OF THE WETS AND SANGRES.              
SNOW WILL GRADUALLY END BY THIS AFTERNOON FOR MOST AREAS AS WEAK                
EASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW BECOMES MORE SOUTHWESTERLY.                               
LEE TROF REDEVELOPS TOWARDS DAWN...AND H7 TEMPS BEHIND THIS SYSTEM              
ARE NOT ALL THAT COLD.  MIN TEMPS MAY BE HIT AROUND/BEFORE                      
MIDNIGHT...WITH WESTERLY DRAINAGE FLOW KICKING IN ACROSS THE LOWER              
EASTERN SLOPES AFTER 06Z CAUSING TEMPS TO STAY STEADY...OR EVEN WARM            
SLIGHTLY. -KT                                                                   
.LONG TERM...                                                                   
(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)                                                       
...ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN TO CONTINUE THIS WEEK...                              
MONDAY...INTERESTING LITTLE WEATHER FEATURE TO DROP SOUTHWARD ON                
THE BACKSIDE OF THE WEATHER SYSTEM CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH THE                 
GREAT BASIN. THE WEATHER FEATURE...UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK AND                   
ASSOCIATED LOW/SHORTWAVE TROUGH...IS CURRENTLY OVER WESTERN MT PER              
WATER VAPOR AND RUC MODEL UPPER AIR ANALYSES. GFS/ECMWF HAS THIS                
FEATURE DROPPING THROUGH WESTERN CO DURING MONDAY AFTERNOON. NAM-               
WRF KIND OF HAS THIS FEATURE...BUT NOT PRINTING OUT MUCH IN THE                 
WAY OF QPF. WEATHER FEATURE SHOULD BE MOVING THROUGH THE CENTRAL                
ROCKIES DURING PEAK HEATING AND INSTABILITY...MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATE               
OF 7-8 C/KM WOULD SUPPORT AT LEAST A SMALL CHANCE FOR CONVECTIVE                
PRECIPITATION OVER THE MOUNTAINS/HIGH VALLEYS. THE CURRENT                      
FORECAST HAS SOMETHING TO THIS EXTENT...BUT POPS MIGHT NEED TO BE               
BUMPED UP A LITTLE OVER THE MOUNTAINS/HIGH VALLEYS IF FUTURE                    
MODELS CONTINUE THIS TREND.                                                     
TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...OVERALL A PROGRESSIVE WESTERLY FLOW                  
PATTERN APPEARS TO BE TAKING SHAPE WITH WEATHER FEATURES MOVING                 
RAPIDLY THROUGH THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. IN GENERAL...TEMPERATURES ARE              
FORECAST TO BE AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE MARCH AVERAGE READINGS. THE                 
BETTER CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS...               
ESPECIALLY THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE WEDNESDAY AND AGAIN FRIDAY AND                
SATURDAY. POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR MORE SNOWFALL ACROSS THE                         
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. BREEZY/WINDY CONDITIONS                 
WILL BE LIKELY TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. METZE                                  
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
MVFR/VFR CIGS EXPECTED ACROSS KCOS/KPUB TAF SITES THROUGH THE                   
MORNING...WITH CLEARING SKIES BY LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.  FOR               
THE SOUTHERN MTS/FOOTHILLS/HIGH VALLEYS...WIDESPREAD SNOW SHOWERS               
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING WITH IFR TO LIFR CIGS ALONG THE               
EASTERN SLOPES AND HIGHER TERRAIN WHERE EASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW WILL              
CONTINUE.  KALS MAY SEE SOME MVFR TO BRIEF IFR UNDER SNOW SHOWERS               
THROUGH THE MORNING.  IMPROVING CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR ALL OF THE              
AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH SOME PERSISTENT ISOLATED             
TO SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUING ALONG THE CONTDVD THROUGH THE              
EVENING. -KT                                                                    
&&                                                                              
.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL NOON MDT TODAY FOR COZ060>062-072>080-087-                  
088.                                                                            
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
31/17                                                                           
</pre> co                                                                       
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY                                             
1212 PM CDT SUN MAR 9 2008                                                      
.UPDATE...                                                                      
SENSIBLE WEATHER UPDATE FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT.                                  
&&                                                                              
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
COMPARED TO YESTERDAYS RUNS...THE CLOUD COVER IS MUCH SLOWER AND                
THINNER THAN EXPECTED. WITH THAT IN MIND...SLOWED THE SEWD                      
PROGRESSION OF OPAQUE CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE WFO PAH FORECAST AREA              
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EARLY EVENING.                 
DUE TO AVERAGING TECHNIQUES...TEXT FORECASTS WILL STILL SHOW                    
PARTLY CLOUDY/SUNNY FOR CLOUD TRENDS THIS AFTERNOON. WITH THE                   
SHARPLY DIMINISHED SNOW COVER...EVEN THE TURBULENT MIXING                       
ASSOCIATED WITH THE INCREASED WARM AIR ADVECTION IS RETARDING                   
TIMELY DEVELOPMENT OF CUMULUS THIS AFTERNOON.                                   
DESPITE THE SNOW COVER...WARM AIR ADVECTION AND GOOD INSOLATION                 
SHOULD HELP TEMPERATURES OVER SOUTHWESTERN INDIANA AND THE                      
PENNYRILE REGION OF WEST KENTUCKY RECOVER INTO THE LOWER                        
40S...WITH 50S EXPECTED IN THE SNOW FREE AREAS OF SOUTHEAST                     
MISSOURI...SOUTHERN ILLINOIS AND THE PURCHASE AREA OF WEST                      
KENTUCKY.                                                                       
UTILIZED A BLEND OF SREF/NAM/RUC GUIDANCE FOR MAX TEMPERATURES                  
TODAY...WITH A BLEND OF THE RUC/NAM FOR DEWPOINTS AND WINDS THIS AFTERNOON.     
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 316 AM CDT SUN MAR 9 2008/                          
DISCUSSION...                                                                   
MAIN FORECAST ISSUES ARE TEMPERATURES AND WEAK SYSTEM MOVING                    
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY.                                                    
TEMPERATURES TODAY WERE BASED ON SEVERAL PARAMETERS...THE LATEST                
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGE TO SEE WHERE SNOW WAS STILL ON THE                      
GROUND...THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...AND A HEDGE TOWARD THE GFS MODEL.              
SOME OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE IS OUT TO LUNCH...CLEARLY MISSING THE                
FACT THERE IS SNOW ON THE GROUND. LATEST IR IMAGES AND TIME-HEIGHT              
CROSS SECTIONS SUGGEST THAT A MID LEVEL CLOUD DECK MAY ALSO PLAY A              
ROLE ACROSS THE AREA.                                                           
A MAJORITY OF THE SNOW SHOULD MELT TODAY...BUT IN THE HEAVIER                   
BANDS...THERE STILL MAY BE A LINGERING EFFECT ON MONDAY...SO WILL               
KEEP TEMPERATURES A BIT LOWER IN THE EAST. TEMPERATURE ADVECTION                
NOT VERY IMPRESSIVE AHEAD OR BEHIND THE SYSTEM ON MONDAY.                       
SHORTWAVE OF CONCERN CURRENTLY OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST AND IS                    
FORECAST TO REACH THE AREA JUST BEFORE 06Z MONDAY.                              
THE NAM IS WEAKER AND A BIT SLOWER WITH THE SHORTWAVE. LEANED MORE              
TOWARD THE GFS FOR THIS PART OF THE FORECAST AS IT HAS BEEN A                   
PERSISTENT SIGNAL. THE LATEST RUN HAS THIS SYSTEM A BIT                         
STRONGER...BUT STILL WEAK. NOW RH INCREASES AS THE SYSTEM MOVES                 
THROUGH. WILL THEREFORE BRING THE SLIGHT CHANCE DOWN TO THE                     
TENNESSEE BORDER. BOTH MODELS HAVE THE SYSTEM OUT OF OUR AREA BY                
NOON MONDAY.                                                                    
WARM UP FINALLY GETS GOING IN EARNEST BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK AS              
LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OUT OVER THE PLAINS AND SOUTHERLY WINDS                   
INCREASE. WILL LIKELY SEE MEX MOS TEMPS IN THE 60S REALIZED WED                 
AFTERNOON.                                                                      
NEXT COLD FRONT AND H50 TROF MOVE IN THU/THU EVENING AND BRING THE              
NEXT GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS WITH IT. RIGHT NOW...ECMWF AND GFS                  
DIFFER ON HOW THE SFC PRESSURE FIELDS EVOLVE...WITH THE ECMWF HAVING            
MORE OF A CIRCULATION OVER NRN AL/MS WHILE THE GFS HAS MORE OF AN               
OPEN ELONGATED SFC TROF COMING THROUGH THU. WILL SPLIT THE                      
DIFFERENCE FOR RIGHT NOW. ENOUGH INSTABILITY ALOFT ARRIVES THU                  
AFTERNOON TO WARRANT SLIGHT CHC THUNDERSTORMS...BUT EVEN THE                    
SHOWALTER INDICES STAY ABOVE 0 EXCEPT IN THE MO BOOTHEEL REGION.                
ALSO...NO APPRECIABLE CONVERGENCE PROGGED ALONG THE FRONT.                      
THUS...SEVERE ASPECT OF THE SYSTEM LOOKS TO BE QUITE LOW AT THIS                
TIME.                                                                           
THE FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH THU NIGHT AND MAINLY SERVE TO BRING US             
BACK DOWN TO SEASONAL TEMPS FOR EARLY/MID MARCH. WILL STAY CLOSE TO             
MEX MOS TEMPS IN THE THU/FRI TIME FRAME. NO CHANGES MADE TO THE                 
FORECAST BEYOND FRI.                                                            
AVIATION...                                                                     
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS MOST OF THE TAF PERIOD AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE              
CONTINUES ACROSS THE REGION. MAY BE SOME VFR CEILINGS IN THE 5-10K              
FT RANGE...WITH S-SW WINDS 10 MPH DURING THE DAY.                               
&&                                                                              
.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
KY...NONE.                                                                      
MO...NONE.                                                                      
IL...NONE.                                                                      
IN...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHORTL/LONG TERM....SMITH                                                       
AVIATION...DH                                                                   
</pre> ky                                                                       
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
1104 PM EDT MON MAR 10 2008                                                     
.UPDATE...                                                                      
DRY AIRMASS EXISTS ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE UPPER GREAT              
LAKES...AS NOTED BY 00Z SOUNDINGS FROM INL...BIS...MPX AND GRB. EVEN            
INTO SOUTHERN MANITOBA...THE AIRMASS IS DRY...WITH THE PAS SOUNDING             
SHOWING DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS OF 5C OR MORE THROUGHOUT THE                       
TROPOSPHERE. THIS DRY AIRMASS IS LOCATED ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF A                 
1009MB LOW CURRENTLY MOVING FROM LAKE WINNIPEG INTO NW ONTARIO.                 
NORTH OF THE SFC LOW IN THE COLDER AIR...11-3.9U IMAGERY DEPICTS                
PLENTY OF LOW CLOUDS...WITH SOME FLURRIES BEING REPORTED AT A FEW               
SITES. WARM FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW EXTENDS SOUTH TO NEAR                 
FARGO. DESPITE ISENTROPIC LIFT ACROSS THIS FRONT ON WESTERLY                    
WINDS...ALONG WITH A FAIRLY POTENT SHRTW ON WATER VAPOR DROPPING                
DOWN INTO CENTRAL MANITOBA...THE DRY AIRMASS HAS RESTRICTED ANY                 
CLOUD DEVELOPMENT TO JUST A FEW MID CLOUDS. HIGH CLOUDS ARE                     
PRESENT...BUT THESE ARE MAINLY ASSOCIATED WITH MOISTURE COMING FROM             
THE PACIFIC THROUGH THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW AS SEEN ON WATER VAPOR.                
21Z/00Z RUC AND 18Z/00Z NAM SEEM TO BE HANDLING THE MOISTURE                    
AVAILABILITY WITH THIS SYSTEM DROPPING TOWARDS THE CWA TONIGHT AND              
TOMORROW BETTER THAN THE 12Z/18Z GFS...AND BOTH SUGGEST MAINLY A                
MID/HIGH CLOUD SCENARIO. PERHAPS THERE IS AN OPPORTUNITY TOMORROW               
MORNING OVER THE EASTERN CWA TO GENERATE SOME PCPN WITH A LONGER                
TIME FRAME FOR ISENTROPIC LIFT AND DYNAMICAL FORCING. HOWEVER...THE             
REST OF TONIGHT LOOKS DRY ACROSS ALL OF THE CWA. LOWERED POPS OVER              
THE WESTERN CWA TOMORROW MORNING...BUT STILL MAINTAINED THEM FOR THE            
AFTERNOON AS THE AREA OF LOW CLOUDS NORTH OF THE LOW DROPS SOUTH.               
NO OTHER CHANGES MADE TO THE FORECAST.                                          
&&                                                                              
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS INDICATED NW MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW INTO              
THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES BTWN A TROF OVER ERN CANADA AND A RIDGE OVER            
WRN NOAM. THE MAIN UPSTREAM FEATURE WAS...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING             
FROM NORTHERN ALBERTA INTO SASKATCHEWAN. AT THE SFC...WRLY FLOW WAS             
INCREASING BTWN HIGH PRES OVER IA/KS/MO AND A TROUGH/FRONT OVER NRN             
ONTARIO. WITH THE VERY DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE...THE WAA PATTERN INTO              
UPPER MI WAS ONLY BRINGING AN INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUDS.                          
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT AND TUESDAY)...                                            
ALTHOUGH RADIATIONAL COOLING MAY ALLOW TEMPS TO FALL OFF THIS                   
EVENING...INCREASING WINDS AND HIGH CLOUDS OVERNIGHT MAY RESULT IN              
STEADY OR SLOWLY RISING TEMPS FROM MIN VALUES IN THE UPPER TEENS.               
DOWNSLOPE WSW WINDS WILL ALSO KEEP TEMPS UP OVER PORTIONS OF WEST               
AND N CNTRL UPPER MI.                                                           
TUE...MODERATE TO STRONG 700-500 MB QVECTOR CONV ALONG WITH FAIRLY              
STEEP 700-500 MB LAPSE RATES(AROUND 7 TO 7.5 C/KM) SHOULD BE ENOUGH             
TO SUPPORT SOME LIGHT SNOW FROM NRN LAKE SUPERIOR INTO THE NE CWA               
IN SPITE OF THE ANTECEDENT DRY AIR. SO...THE FCST LEANED A BIT MORE             
TOWARD THE GFS AND CANADIAN REGIONAL GEM WITH LIKELY POPS NE AND                
CHANCE N CNTRL COMPARED TO THE NAM WHICH DOES NOT PRODUCE ANY PCPN              
OVER UPPER MI. ANY PCPN SHOULD TAPER OFF IN THE AFTERNOON. MODEL                
SOUNDINGS AND LOW LEVEL WET-BULB ZERO VALUES WOULD KEEP PCPN AS                 
SNOW. QPF VALUES SUGGEST ANY SNOWFALL WILL BE LESS THAN INCH.                   
.LONG TERM (TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT MONDAY)...                               
NW WINDS ON BACK SIDE OF LOW ALONG WITH H85 TEMPS NEAR -10C GOOD                
ENOUGH FOR CHANCE POPS EARLY TUE NIGHT OVR FAR EAST CWA.                        
OTHERWISE...EXPECT CLEARING SKIES WITH TEMPORARY RIDGING. PWAT MIN              
MOVING THROUGH SUGGESTS SOME RADIATIONAL COOLING CAN TAKE PLACE.                
WENT BLO GUIDANCE FOR MIN TEMPS.                                                
INCREASING CLOUDS BY MIDDAY WED THEN MIXED PRECIPITATION STILL ON               
TRACK FOR LATE WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING. GFS/ECMWF/CANADIAN             
IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT IN TRACKING A NORTHERN STREAM WAVE (A PIECE              
OF ENERGY EMERGING FM THE STRONGER SHORTWAVE NOW OFFSHORE OF BRITISH            
COLUMBIA) AND SFC LOW JUST NORTH OF LK SUPERIOR ON THU. DESPITE FACT            
THAT GFS SHOWS H3 JET STREAKING INTO GREAT LAKES ON WED NIGHT AND               
THE ECMWF NOT HAVING ANY SUCH FEATURE...MAJORITY OF PCPN THAT OCCURS            
WED NIGHT IS TIED TO LIFTING ALONG ADVANCING SFC TROUGH AND                     
ISENTROPIC LIFT ON THE 280-290K SFCS. GFS/ECMWF SHOW MUCH BETTER                
AGREEMENT ON THESE FEATURES ALONG WITH RESULTING QPF. HAVE INCREASED            
POPS TO LIKELY. PTYPE ALSO SEEMING TO COME INTO SOME AGREEMENT.                 
DEPENDING ON HOW QUICKLY PCPN ARRIVES ON WED POTENTIAL FOR RAIN/SNOW            
MIX EXISTS INTO EARLY WED EVENING DUE TO RESIDUAL WARM AIR NEAR SFC.            
1000-850MB THICKNESSES AND 2M TEMPS FM ECMWF/GFS SUGGEST ANY MIXED              
RAIN/SNOW WOULD CHANGE TO SNOW BY 06Z THU. COULD SEE UP TO 2 INCHES             
OF SNOW WITH THE SYSTEM ON WED NIGHT.                                           
IN WAKE OF THE SFC TROUGH...DRY AIR SHOULD LIMIT PCPN CHANCES THU.              
ECMWF/GFS/CANADIAN ALL SHOW A MINIMUM IN QPF IN THE 12 HR PERIOD                
ENDING AT 00Z FRI. PACIFIC AIR PUSHING IN BEHIND THE TROUGH ALLOWS              
TEMPS TO WARM INTO THE 30S. SO...IF ANY PCPN DOES OCCUR IT WOULD                
LIKELY BE IN FORM OF A RAIN/SNOW MIX OR STRICTLY RAIN.                          
PREFERRED LESS AMPLIFIED/WARMER ECMWF/CANADIAN COMPARED TO GFS INTO             
THE WEEKEND. 12Z GFS IS COMING AROUND TO LESS TROUGHING OVR THE                 
WESTERN GREAT LAKES. H9-H85 TEMPS LOOK MARGINAL FOR LK EFFECT BUT               
WITH A NORTH WIND AND WEAK CYCLONIC FLOW LINGERING NEED TO KEEP SOME            
POPS NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR FRI INTO SAT. LK EFFECT ENDS BY SUNDAY AS               
WINDS BECOME SE WITH SFC RIDGE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA.                          
GFS/ECMWF CONSISTENT ON DEVELOPING SIGNIFICANT STORM SYSTEM OVR                 
NATIONS MID SECTION BY NEXT MONDAY. ECMWF HAS LATCHED ONTO THIS                 
SOLUTION AND BEEN FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH IT FOR THE LAST FEW DAYS.              
DETAILS SHOULD BE TAKEN WITH GRAIN OF SALT AT THIS POINT AS THE                 
SHORTWAVES THAT ARE PROGGED TO MORPH INTO THIS LARGE SYSTEM ARE                 
STILL OUT IN THE PACIFIC...NEAR THE GULF OF ALASKA AND EXITING                  
JAPAN. WILL NEED TO WAIT TIL THE UPCOMING WEEKEND WHEN ENERGY                   
REACHES THE WEST COAST BEFORE IT BECOMES SAMPLED BY RAOB NETWORK.               
IT IS PRETTY INTERESTING THOUGH HOW CONSISTENT THE MODELS HAVE BEEN             
WITH A SYSTEM THIS FAR OUT IN TIME. STRONG NEGATIVELY TILTED SYSTEMS            
EJECTING OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST CONUS CAN END UP SLOWER THAN PROGGED              
SO DECIDED TO KEEP PCPN OUT OF CWA ON SUN NIGHT. FOR NOW...HAVE                 
CHANCE POPS OVER ALL AREAS BY LATE ON DAY 7. TRACK OF STORM SUGGESTS            
SNOW FOR PTYPE BUT A FARTHER WEST TRACK WOULD RESULT IN LIQUID PCPN.            
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION (FOR THE 00Z TAF ISSUANCE)...                                         
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS AT BOTH TAF SITES THROUGH TONIGHT AS HIGH PRES            
RIDGE DOMINATES THE REGION. LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR SHOULD DEVELOP AS A            
WRLY LOW LEVEL JET DEVELOPS BETWEEN THE DEPARTING RIDGE AND LOW PRES            
MOVING INTO NRN ONTARIO. WAA AHEAD OF THE LOW WILL LEAD TO THE                  
CONTINUED LOWERING OF A MID-LVL CLOUD DECK FROM THIS EVENING INTO               
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. MVFR CIGS AREA EXPECTED AS A COLD FRONT MOVES              
INTO UPPER MI TUE MORNING. WHILE SOME MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATED THAT             
CIGS MAY DROP INTO THE IFR RANGE...THE MODELS SEEM TO BE OVERDOING              
THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE CURRENTLY PRESENT UPSTREAM. AS A RESULT...DID            
NOT INCLUDE IFR CIGS OR PRECIPITATION IN THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME.             
&&                                                                              
.MARINE (FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)...                       
SOUTHWEST WINDS TO 30 KT ARE EXPECTED OVER PORTIONS PORTIONS OF LAKE            
SUPERIOR TONIGHT AHEAD OF THE NEXT APPROACHING LOW PRES TROUGH FROM             
CANADA. AS THE TROUGH PASSES ON TUESDAY WINDS WILL SHIFT NORTHWEST              
TO 25 KT OVER THE ERN HALF OF THE LAKE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND                    
EVENING. WINDS DIE OFF BRIEFLY LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND EARLY                     
WEDNESDAY BUT THEN INCREASE AGAIN TO 30 KT FROM THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST             
WED EVENING AHEAD OF YET ANOTHER CLIPPER LOW WED NIGHT. WINDS SHIFT             
WEST-NORTHWEST BY FRIDAY BEHIND THE TROUGH PASSAGE AND MAY APPROACH             
30 KT OVER THE FAR ERN PORTION OF THE LAKE. DUE TO EXTENSIVE ICE                
COVERAGE OVER THE WEST HALF OF THE LAKE AND WARMING                             
TEMPERATURES...FREEZING SPRAY WILL NOT BE MUCH OF A FACTOR.                     
&&                                                                              
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                        
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
UPDATE...AJ                                                                     
SHORT TERM...JLB                                                                
LONG TERM...JLA                                                                 
MARINE...JLB                                                                    
AVIATION...TAG                                                                  
</pre> mi                                                                       
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
720 PM EDT MON MAR 10 2008                                                      
UPDATED FOR 00Z AVIATION                                                        
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS INDICATED NW MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW INTO              
THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES BTWN A TROF OVER ERN CANADA AND A RIDGE OVER            
WRN NOAM. THE MAIN UPSTREAM FEATURE WAS...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING             
FROM NORTHERN ALBERTA INTO SASKATCHEWAN. AT THE SFC...WRLY FLOW WAS             
INCREASING BTWN HIGH PRES OVER IA/KS/MO AND A TROUGH/FRONT OVER NRN             
ONTARIO. WITH THE VERY DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE...THE WAA PATTERN INTO              
UPPER MI WAS ONLY BRINGING AN INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUDS.                          
.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT AND TUESDAY)...                                            
ALTHOUGH RADIATIONAL COOLING MAY ALLOW TEMPS TO FALL OFF THIS                   
EVENING...INCREASING WINDS AND HIGH CLOUDS OVERNIGHT MAY RESULT IN              
STEADY OR SLOWLY RISING TEMPS FROM MIN VALUES IN THE UPPER TEENS.               
DOWNSLOPE WSW WINDS WILL ALSO KEEP TEMPS UP OVER PORTIONS OF WEST               
AND N CNTRL UPPER MI.                                                           
TUE...MODERATE TO STRONG 700-500 MB QVECTOR CONV ALONG WITH FAIRLY              
STEEP 700-500 MB LAPSE RATES(AROUND 7 TO 7.5 C/KM) SHOULD BE ENOUGH             
TO SUPPORT SOME LIGHT SNOW FROM NRN LAKE SUPERIOR INTO THE NE CWA               
IN SPITE OF THE ANTECEDENT DRY AIR. SO...THE FCST LEANED A BIT MORE             
TOWARD THE GFS AND CANADIAN REGIONAL GEM WITH LIKELY POPS NE AND                
CHANCE N CNTRL COMPARED TO THE NAM WHICH DOES NOT PRODUCE ANY PCPN              
OVER UPPER MI. ANY PCPN SHOULD TAPER OFF IN THE AFTERNOON. MODEL                
SOUNDINGS AND LOW LEVEL WET-BULB ZERO VALUES WOULD KEEP PCPN AS                 
SNOW. QPF VALUES SUGGEST ANY SNOWFALL WILL BE LESS THAN INCH.                   
.LONG TERM (TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT MONDAY)...                               
NW WINDS ON BACK SIDE OF LOW ALONG WITH H85 TEMPS NEAR -10C GOOD                
ENOUGH FOR CHANCE POPS EARLY TUE NIGHT OVR FAR EAST CWA.                        
OTHERWISE...EXPECT CLEARING SKIES WITH TEMPORARY RIDGING. PWAT MIN              
MOVING THROUGH SUGGESTS SOME RADIATIONAL COOLING CAN TAKE PLACE.                
WENT BLO GUIDANCE FOR MIN TEMPS.                                                
INCREASING CLOUDS BY MIDDAY WED THEN MIXED PRECIPITATION STILL ON               
TRACK FOR LATE WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING. GFS/ECMWF/CANADIAN             
IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT IN TRACKING A NORTHERN STREAM WAVE (A PIECE              
OF ENERGY EMERGING FM THE STRONGER SHORTWAVE NOW OFFSHORE OF BRITISH            
COLUMBIA) AND SFC LOW JUST NORTH OF LK SUPERIOR ON THU. DESPITE FACT            
THAT GFS SHOWS H3 JET STREAKING INTO GREAT LAKES ON WED NIGHT AND               
THE ECMWF NOT HAVING ANY SUCH FEATURE...MAJORITY OF PCPN THAT OCCURS            
WED NIGHT IS TIED TO LIFTING ALONG ADVANCING SFC TROUGH AND                     
ISENTROPIC LIFT ON THE 280-290K SFCS. GFS/ECMWF SHOW MUCH BETTER                
AGREEMENT ON THESE FEATURES ALONG WITH RESULTING QPF. HAVE INCREASED            
POPS TO LIKELY. PTYPE ALSO SEEMING TO COME INTO SOME AGREEMENT.                 
DEPENDING ON HOW QUICKLY PCPN ARRIVES ON WED POTENTIAL FOR RAIN/SNOW            
MIX EXISTS INTO EARLY WED EVENING DUE TO RESIDUAL WARM AIR NEAR SFC.            
1000-850MB THICKNESSES AND 2M TEMPS FM ECMWF/GFS SUGGEST ANY MIXED              
RAIN/SNOW WOULD CHANGE TO SNOW BY 06Z THU. COULD SEE UP TO 2 INCHES             
OF SNOW WITH THE SYSTEM ON WED NIGHT.                                           
IN WAKE OF THE SFC TROUGH...DRY AIR SHOULD LIMIT PCPN CHANCES THU.              
ECMWF/GFS/CANADIAN ALL SHOW A MINIMUM IN QPF IN THE 12 HR PERIOD                
ENDING AT 00Z FRI. PACIFIC AIR PUSHING IN BEHIND THE TROUGH ALLOWS              
TEMPS TO WARM INTO THE 30S. SO...IF ANY PCPN DOES OCCUR IT WOULD                
LIKELY BE IN FORM OF A RAIN/SNOW MIX OR STRICTLY RAIN.                          
PREFERRED LESS AMPLIFIED/WARMER ECMWF/CANADIAN COMPARED TO GFS INTO             
THE WEEKEND. 12Z GFS IS COMING AROUND TO LESS TROUGHING OVR THE                 
WESTERN GREAT LAKES. H9-H85 TEMPS LOOK MARGINAL FOR LK EFFECT BUT               
WITH A NORTH WIND AND WEAK CYCLONIC FLOW LINGERING NEED TO KEEP SOME            
POPS NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR FRI INTO SAT. LK EFFECT ENDS BY SUNDAY AS               
WINDS BECOME SE WITH SFC RIDGE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA.                          
GFS/ECMWF CONSISTENT ON DEVELOPING SIGNIFICANT STORM SYSTEM OVR                 
NATIONS MID SECTION BY NEXT MONDAY. ECMWF HAS LATCHED ONTO THIS                 
SOLUTION AND BEEN FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH IT FOR THE LAST FEW DAYS.              
DETAILS SHOULD BE TAKEN WITH GRAIN OF SALT AT THIS POINT AS THE                 
SHORTWAVES THAT ARE PROGGED TO MORPH INTO THIS LARGE SYSTEM ARE                 
STILL OUT IN THE PACIFIC...NEAR THE GULF OF ALASKA AND EXITING                  
JAPAN. WILL NEED TO WAIT TIL THE UPCOMING WEEKEND WHEN ENERGY                   
REACHES THE WEST COAST BEFORE IT BECOMES SAMPLED BY RAOB NETWORK.               
IT IS PRETTY INTERESTING THOUGH HOW CONSISTENT THE MODELS HAVE BEEN             
WITH A SYSTEM THIS FAR OUT IN TIME. STRONG NEGATIVELY TILTED SYSTEMS            
EJECTING OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST CONUS CAN END UP SLOWER THAN PROGGED              
SO DECIDED TO KEEP PCPN OUT OF CWA ON SUN NIGHT. FOR NOW...HAVE                 
CHANCE POPS OVER ALL AREAS BY LATE ON DAY 7. TRACK OF STORM SUGGESTS            
SNOW FOR PTYPE BUT A FARTHER WEST TRACK WOULD RESULT IN LIQUID PCPN.            
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION (FOR THE 00Z TAF ISSUANCE)...                                         
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS AT BOTH TAF SITES THROUGH TONIGHT AS HIGH PRES            
RIDGE DOMINATES THE REGION. LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR SHOULD DEVELOP AS A            
WRLY LOW LEVEL JET DEVELOPS BETWEEN THE DEPARTING RIDGE AND LOW PRES            
MOVING INTO NRN ONTARIO. WAA AHEAD OF THE LOW WILL LEAD TO THE                  
CONTINUED LOWERING OF A MID-LVL CLOUD DECK FROM THIS EVENING INTO               
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. MVFR CIGS AREA EXPECTED AS A COLD FRONT MOVES              
INTO UPPER MI TUE MORNING. WHILE SOME MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATED THAT             
CIGS MAY DROP INTO THE IFR RANGE...THE MODELS SEEM TO BE OVERDOING              
THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE CURRENTLY PRESENT UPSTREAM. AS A RESULT...DID            
NOT INCLUDE IFR CIGS OR PRECIPITATION IN THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME.             
&&                                                                              
.MARINE (FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)...                       
SOUTHWEST WINDS TO 30 KT ARE EXPECTED OVER PORTIONS PORTIONS OF LAKE            
SUPERIOR TONIGHT AHEAD OF THE NEXT APPROACHING LOW PRES TROUGH FROM             
CANADA. AS THE TROUGH PASSES ON TUESDAY WINDS WILL SHIFT NORTHWEST              
TO 25 KT OVER THE ERN HALF OF THE LAKE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND                    
EVENING. WINDS DIE OFF BRIEFLY LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND EARLY                     
WEDNESDAY BUT THEN INCREASE AGAIN TO 30 KT FROM THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST             
WED EVENING AHEAD OF YET ANOTHER CLIPPER LOW WED NIGHT. WINDS SHIFT             
WEST-NORTHWEST BY FRIDAY BEHIND THE TROUGH PASSAGE AND MAY APPROACH             
30 KT OVER THE FAR ERN PORTION OF THE LAKE. DUE TO EXTENSIVE ICE                
COVERAGE OVER THE WEST HALF OF THE LAKE AND WARMING                             
TEMPERATURES...FREEZING SPRAY WILL NOT BE MUCH OF A FACTOR.                     
&&                                                                              
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                        
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHORT TERM...JLB                                                                
LONG TERM...JLA                                                                 
MARINE...JLB                                                                    
AVIATION...TAG                                                                  
</pre> mi                                                                       
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI                                     
714 PM EDT MON MAR 10 2008                                                      
.AVIATION...                                                                    
QUIET CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.                  
THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY FOR SOME LIGHT FOG AROUND SUNRISE AS                   
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING COLD                  
FRONT.  SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL BECOME WELL ESTABLISHED BY SUNRISE AS              
WELL...AND WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY AS THE FRONT APPROACHES                
FROM THE NORTHWEST.                                                             
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 340 PM EDT MON MAR 10 2008                            
SHORT TERM...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT                                         
THE QUALITY OF MOISTURE HAS REMAINED POOR...KEEPING THE SNOW                    
ACTIVITY TO PREDOMINATELY FLURRIES.  LATEST TAMDAR SOUNDINGS DEPICT             
A SATURATED ENVIRONMENT LIMITED TO THE 900-700MB LAYER. THIS                    
AFTERNOONS WATER VAPOR IMAGERY/RUC GUIDANCE EXITS THE SHORTWAVE                 
RESPONSIBLE FOR THE CLOUDS/FLURRIES MOMENTARILY. WILL CARRY NO                  
HYDROMETEORS THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT WITH SUBSIDENCE/ANTICYCLONIC            
VORTICITY ADVECTION AND LOSS OF ANY DIURNALLY ENHANCED LAPSE RATES.             
TEMPERATURES SHOULD DIP RATHER QUICKLY THIS EVENING AS WINDS REMAIN             
SUBDUED AND CLOUDS SCATTER QUICKLY. MAINLY GONE A DEGREE OR TWO                 
BELOW GUIDANCE GIVEN FAVORABLE RADIATING CONDITIONS...AROUND 20 FOR             
MOST AREAS. SHOULD NOT GET QUITE AS COLD TONIGHT SINCE RETURN FLOW              
WILL DEVELOP ALLOWING FOR SOME WARM AIR ADVECTION.                              
LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH MONDAY                                              
THE 12Z MODEL SUITE ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH RESPECT TO A NORTHERN            
STREAM WAVE EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE STATE FROM CENTRAL CANADA               
TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE CURRENT WATER VAPOR LOOP ALREADY             
INDICATES A STRONG UPPER JET OVER WESTERN CANADA. THIS JET IS                   
FORECAST TO DIVE INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION TUESDAY                    
AFTERNOON...STRENGTHENING TO 110 KTS. UPPER DIVERGENCE ASSOCIATED               
WITH THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF THIS JET WILL BE FOCUSED ACROSS                    
SOUTHERN MICHIGAN BY 00Z WED. THE UPPER JET WILL ALSO ALLOW THE MID             
LEVEL WAVE TO AMPLIFY AS IT CROSSES THE STATE. THE ASSOCIATED                   
SURFACE LOW IS EXPECTED TO PASS NORTH OF THE STATE...WHILE A SURFACE            
TROUGH AXIS SWINGS THROUGH SE MI BETWEEN 00Z AND 03Z WED. THIS                  
SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO HAVE GOOD DYNAMICS...WITH A STRONG YET BRIEF              
SHOT OF DCVA AND UPPER DIVERGENCE. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW LACK OF DEEP            
MOISTURE TO BE THE MAIN LIMITING FACTOR FOR PRECIP. ALL MODEL                   
SOLUTIONS DO HOWEVER SHOW A NARROW RIBBON HIGHER 850-700MB THETA E              
AIR ADVECTING AHEAD OF THE SURFACE TROUGH. THIS COMBINED WITH THE               
DYNAMICS WILL WARRANT A LOW CHANCE OF PRECIP BETWEEN THE 21Z TUE AND            
03Z WED TIME FRAME. WITH SURFACE TEMPS FORECAST TO RISE INTO THE                
UPPER 30S/NEAR 40 TUES AFTERNOON...THE BOUNDARY LAYER LOOKS TO BE               
WARM ENOUGH TO SUPPORT A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW.                                  
MID LEVEL HEIGHTS WILL QUICKLY REBOUND ACROSS THE STATE ON WEDNESDAY            
IN THE WAKE OF TUESDAY EVENINGS WAVE. SKIES SHOULD ALSO CLEAR OUT BY            
WEDNESDAY MORNING AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION.            
A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT...ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEPARTING LOW IS                   
FORECAST TO SINK S-SE ACROSS LAKE HURON LATE TUES NIGHT INTO                    
WEDNESDAY...CAUSING 850MB TEMPS TO DROP TO -8 TO -10C OVER THE THUMB            
REGION BY WED MORNING. THUS...HAVE BACKED OFF WED HIGHS A                       
BIT...CARRYING MAX TEMPS ONLY IN THE LOWER 30S IN THE THUMB TO NEAR             
40 WEST OF THE I-75 CORRIDOR.                                                   
BY WEDNESDAY EVENING THE NEXT WAVE IS ALREADY FORECAST TO BE                    
ADVANCING INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION IN THE VERY                       
PROGRESSIVE NORTHERN STREAM. WHILE THE MAIN SURFACE LOW IS FORECAST             
TO PASS NORTH OF THE STATE...MODELS DO SHOW AN OCCLUDED FRONT MOVING            
ACROSS SOUTHERN MI EARLY THURS MORNING. STRONG LOW TO MID LEVEL                 
THETA E ADVECTION LATE WED NIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING WILL AGAIN                
WARRANT A CHANCE OF PRECIP. MODELS ARE NOT OVERLY ROBUST WITH THE               
QPF. HOWEVER GIVEN THE MAGNITUDE OF ISENTROPIC ASCENT...WILL                    
CONTINUE WITH HIGH CHANCE POPS OVERNIGHT WED THROUGH THURS MORNING.             
A WARMING BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD SUPPORT MAINLY RAIN AROUND THE                  
DETROIT AREA. LOWER WET BULB ZERO HEIGHTS FARTHER NORTH SHOULD                  
HOWEVER SUPPORT A RAIN/SNOW MIX...POSSIBLY EVEN SOME SLEET.                     
WITH THE FLOW ALOFT TRANSITIONING TO MORE ZONAL ACROSS THE CONUS BY             
LATE IN THE WEEK...THE AMOUNT OF COLD AIR ADVECTION IS NOT OVERLY               
IMPRESSIVE IN THE WAKE OF THURSDAYS SYSTEM. THE CURRENT FORECAST HAS            
HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 40S THURS AND FRI WHICH STILL LOOKS                     
REASONABLE. THE NEXT SYSTEM TO MONITOR IS A WAVE IN THE SOUTHERN                
STREAM FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY ON SATURDAY. THE GFS             
HAS BEEN TRENDING MORE AMPLIFIED WITH THIS WAVE...AS WELL AS WITH               
MID LEVEL FGEN OVER THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES. THIS MORE AMPLIFIED               
SOLUTION SOLUTION WOULD BRING COLDER AIR INTO THE STATE ON SATURDAY             
ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL ACROSS THE METRO             
DETROIT AREA AND POINTS SOUTH. THE 12Z ECMWF ALONG WITH SEVERAL GFS             
ENSEMBLE MEMBERS KEEP THE BULK OF QPF SOUTH OF THE STATE. SO AT THIS            
TIME A CHANCE OF SNOW ACROSS THE SOUTHERN 1/3RD OF THE CWA SEEMS                
REASONABLE.                                                                     
MARINE...                                                                       
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO PASS JUST NORTH OF LAKE HURON               
LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...SENDING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE            
LAKE AROUND 00Z. SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE LAKES             
TUES AFTERNOON. MODEL SOUNDINGS ONLY SHOW LIMITED MIXING HEIGHTS                
OVER LAKE HURON. THE SHALLOW INSTABILITY HOWEVER SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO            
PROVIDE FREQUENT GUSTS OF 25 TO 30 KNOTS TUES AFTERNOON. MIXING                 
HEIGHTS WILL INCREASE OVER THE LAKES WED NIGHT IN THE WAKE OF THE               
SURFACE FRONT. THE GRADIENT WILL HOWEVER BEGIN TO WEAKEN...THUS WIND            
GUSTS SHOULD REMAIN AROUND 25 KNOTS ACROSS THE OPEN WATERS OF LAKE              
HURON. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION BY WED                          
AFTERNOON...ALLOWING THE WINDS TO BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE.                    
&&                                                                              
.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
MI...NONE.                                                                      
LAKE HURON...                                                                   
     BRISK WIND ADVISORY...OUTER SAGINAW BAY AND THE NEARSHORE WATERS           
     FROM PORT AUSTIN TO HARBOR BEACH...FROM 8 AM TUESDAY TO 8 PM               
     TUESDAY.                                                                   
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.                                                           
MI WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.                                                  
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
AVIATION.....MANN                                                               
SHORT TERM...CB                                                                 
LONG TERM....SC                                                                 
MARINE.......SC                                                                 
YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE            
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).                                    
</pre> mi                                                                       
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
415 PM EDT MON MAR 10 2008                                                      
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS INDICATED NW MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW INTO              
THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES BTWN A TROF OVER ERN CANADA AND A RIDGE OVER            
WRN NOAM. THE MAIN UPSTREAM FEATURE WAS...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING             
FROM NORTHERN ALBERTA INTO SASKATCHEWAN. AT THE SFC...WRLY FLOW WAS             
INCREASING BTWN HIGH PRES OVER IA/KS/MO AND A TROUGH/FRONT OVER NRN             
ONTARIO. WITH THE VERY DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE...THE WAA PATTERN INTO              
UPPER MI WAS ONLY BRINGING AN INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUDS.                          
.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT AND TUESDAY)...                                            
ALTHOUGH RADIATIONAL COOLING MAY ALLOW TEMPS TO FALL OFF THIS                   
EVENING...INCREASING WINDS AND HIGH CLOUDS OVERNIGHT MAY RESULT IN              
STEADY OR SLOWLY RISING TEMPS FROM MIN VALUES IN THE UPPER TEENS.               
DOWNSLOPE WSW WINDS WILL ALSO KEEP TEMPS UP OVER PORTIONS OF WEST               
AND N CNTRL UPPER MI.                                                           
TUE...MODERATE TO STRONG 700-500 MB QVECTOR CONV ALONG WITH FAIRLY              
STEEP 700-500 MB LAPSE RATES(AROUND 7 TO 7.5 C/KM) SHOULD BE ENOUGH             
TO SUPPORT SOME LIGHT SNOW FROM NRN LAKE SUPERIOR INTO THE NE CWA               
IN SPITE OF THE ANTECEDENT DRY AIR. SO...THE FCST LEANED A BIT MORE             
TOWARD THE GFS AND CANADIAN REGIONAL GEM WITH LIKELY POPS NE AND                
CHANCE N CNTRL COMPARED TO THE NAM WHICH DOES NOT PRODUCE ANY PCPN              
OVER UPPER MI. ANY PCPN SHOULD TAPER OFF IN THE AFTERNOON. MODEL                
SOUNDINGS AND LOW LEVEL WET-BULB ZERO VALUES WOULD KEEP PCPN AS                 
SNOW. QPF VALUES SUGGEST ANY SNOWFALL WILL BE LESS THAN INCH.                   
.LONG TERM (TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT MONDAY)...                               
NW WINDS ON BACK SIDE OF LOW ALONG WITH H85 TEMPS NEAR -10C GOOD                
ENOUGH FOR CHANCE POPS EARLY TUE NIGHT OVR FAR EAST CWA.                        
OTHERWISE...EXPECT CLEARING SKIES WITH TEMPORARY RIDGING. PWAT MIN              
MOVING THROUGH SUGGESTS SOME RADIATIONAL COOLING CAN TAKE PLACE.                
WENT BLO GUIDANCE FOR MIN TEMPS.                                                
INCREASING CLOUDS BY MIDDAY WED THEN MIXED PRECIPITATION STILL ON               
TRACK FOR LATE WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING. GFS/ECMWF/CANADIAN             
IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT IN TRACKING A NORTHERN STREAM WAVE (A PIECE              
OF ENERGY EMERGING FM THE STRONGER SHORTWAVE NOW OFFSHORE OF BRITISH            
COLUMBIA) AND SFC LOW JUST NORTH OF LK SUPERIOR ON THU. DESPITE FACT            
THAT GFS SHOWS H3 JET STREAKING INTO GREAT LAKES ON WED NIGHT AND               
THE ECMWF NOT HAVING ANY SUCH FEATURE...MAJORITY OF PCPN THAT OCCURS            
WED NIGHT IS TIED TO LIFTING ALONG ADVANCING SFC TROUGH AND                     
ISENTROPIC LIFT ON THE 280-290K SFCS. GFS/ECMWF SHOW MUCH BETTER                
AGREEMENT ON THESE FEATURES ALONG WITH RESULTING QPF. HAVE INCREASED            
POPS TO LIKELY. PTYPE ALSO SEEMING TO COME INTO SOME AGREEMENT.                 
DEPENDING ON HOW QUICKLY PCPN ARRIVES ON WED POTENTIAL FOR RAIN/SNOW            
MIX EXISTS INTO EARLY WED EVENING DUE TO RESIDUAL WARM AIR NEAR SFC.            
1000-850MB THICKNESSES AND 2M TEMPS FM ECMWF/GFS SUGGEST ANY MIXED              
RAIN/SNOW WOULD CHANGE TO SNOW BY 06Z THU. COULD SEE UP TO 2 INCHES             
OF SNOW WITH THE SYSTEM ON WED NIGHT.                                           
IN WAKE OF THE SFC TROUGH...DRY AIR SHOULD LIMIT PCPN CHANCES THU.              
ECMWF/GFS/CANADIAN ALL SHOW A MINIMUM IN QPF IN THE 12 HR PERIOD                
ENDING AT 00Z FRI. PACIFIC AIR PUSHING IN BEHIND THE TROUGH ALLOWS              
TEMPS TO WARM INTO THE 30S. SO...IF ANY PCPN DOES OCCUR IT WOULD                
LIKELY BE IN FORM OF A RAIN/SNOW MIX OR STRICTLY RAIN.                          
PREFERRED LESS AMPLIFIED/WARMER ECMWF/CANADIAN COMPARED TO GFS INTO             
THE WEEKEND. 12Z GFS IS COMING AROUND TO LESS TROUGHING OVR THE                 
WESTERN GREAT LAKES. H9-H85 TEMPS LOOK MARGINAL FOR LK EFFECT BUT               
WITH A NORTH WIND AND WEAK CYCLONIC FLOW LINGERING NEED TO KEEP SOME            
POPS NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR FRI INTO SAT. LK EFFECT ENDS BY SUNDAY AS               
WINDS BECOME SE WITH SFC RIDGE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA.                          
GFS/ECMWF CONSISTENT ON DEVELOPING SIGNIFICANT STORM SYSTEM OVR                 
NATIONS MID SECTION BY NEXT MONDAY. ECMWF HAS LATCHED ONTO THIS                 
SOLUTION AND BEEN FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH IT FOR THE LAST FEW DAYS.              
DETAILS SHOULD BE TAKEN WITH GRAIN OF SALT AT THIS POINT AS THE                 
SHORTWAVES THAT ARE PROGGED TO MORPH INTO THIS LARGE SYSTEM ARE                 
STILL OUT IN THE PACIFIC...NEAR THE GULF OF ALASKA AND EXITING                  
JAPAN. WILL NEED TO WAIT TIL THE UPCOMING WEEKEND WHEN ENERGY                   
REACHES THE WEST COAST BEFORE IT BECOMES SAMPLED BY RAOB NETWORK.               
IT IS PRETTY INTERESTING THOUGH HOW CONSISTENT THE MODELS HAVE BEEN             
WITH A SYSTEM THIS FAR OUT IN TIME. STRONG NEGATIVELY TILTED SYSTEMS            
EJECTING OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST CONUS CAN END UP SLOWER THAN PROGGED              
SO DECIDED TO KEEP PCPN OUT OF CWA ON SUN NIGHT. FOR NOW...HAVE                 
CHANCE POPS OVER ALL AREAS BY LATE ON DAY 7. TRACK OF STORM SUGGESTS            
SNOW FOR PTYPE BUT A FARTHER WEST TRACK WOULD RESULT IN LIQUID PCPN.            
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION (FOR THE 18Z TAF ISSUANCE)...                                         
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS AT BOTH TAF SITES THROUGH TONIGHT AS HIGH PRES            
RIDGE DOMINATES THE REGION. LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR SHOULD DEVELOP AS A            
WRLY LOW LEVEL JET DEVELOPS BETWEEN THE DEPARTING RIDGE AND LOW PRES            
MOVING INTO NRN ONTARIO. WAA AHEAD OF THE LOW ILL LEAD TO THE                   
CONTINUED LOWERING OF A MID-LVL CLOUD DECK FROM THIS EVENING INTO               
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. MVFR CIGS AREA EXPECTED AS A COLD FRONT MOVES              
INTO UPPER MI TUE MORNING.                                                      
&&                                                                              
.MARINE (FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)...                       
SOUTHWEST WINDS TO 30 KT ARE EXPECTED OVER PORTIONS PORTIONS OF LAKE            
SUPERIOR TONIGHT AHEAD OF THE NEXT APPROACHING LOW PRES TROUGH FROM             
CANADA. AS THE TROUGH PASSES ON TUESDAY WINDS WILL SHIFT NORTHWEST              
TO 25 KT OVER THE ERN HALF OF THE LAKE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND                    
EVENING. WINDS DIE OFF BRIEFLY LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND EARLY                     
WEDNESDAY BUT THEN INCREASE AGAIN TO 30 KT FROM THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST             
WED EVENING AHEAD OF YET ANOTHER CLIPPER LOW WED NIGHT. WINDS SHIFT             
WEST-NORTHWEST BY FRIDAY BEHIND THE TROUGH PASSAGE AND MAY APPROACH             
30 KT OVER THE FAR ERN PORTION OF THE LAKE. DUE TO EXTENSIVE ICE                
COVERAGE OVER THE WEST HALF OF THE LAKE AND WARMING                             
TEMPERATURES...FREEZING SPRAY WILL NOT BE MUCH OF A FACTOR.                     
&&                                                                              
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                        
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHORT TERM...JLB                                                                
LONG TERM...JLA                                                                 
AVIATION/MARINE...JLB                                                           
</pre> mi                                                                       
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI                                     
340 PM EDT MON MAR 10 2008                                                      
.SHORT TERM...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT                                        
THE QUALITY OF MOISTURE HAS REMAINED POOR...KEEPING THE SNOW                    
ACTIVITY TO PREDOMINATELY FLURRIES.  LATEST TAMDAR SOUNDINGS DEPICT             
A SATURATED ENVIRONMENT LIMITED TO THE 900-700MB LAYER. THIS                    
AFTERNOONS WATER VAPOR IMAGERY/RUC GUIDANCE EXITS THE SHORTWAVE                 
RESPONSIBLE FOR THE CLOUDS/FLURRIES MOMENTARILY. WILL CARRY NO                  
HYDROMETEORS THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT WITH SUBSIDENCE/ANTICYCLONIC            
VORTICITY ADVECTION AND LOSS OF ANY DIURNALLY ENHANCED LAPSE RATES.             
TEMPERATURES SHOULD DIP RATHER QUICKLY THIS EVENING AS WINDS REMAIN             
SUBDUED AND CLOUDS SCATTER QUICKLY. MAINLY GONE A DEGREE OR TWO                 
BELOW GUIDANCE GIVEN FAVORABLE RADIATING CONDITIONS...AROUND 20 FOR             
MOST AREAS. SHOULD NOT GET QUITE AS COLD TONIGHT SINCE RETURN FLOW              
WILL DEVELOP ALLOWING FOR SOME WARM AIR ADVECTION.                              
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH MONDAY                                             
THE 12Z MODEL SUITE ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH RESPECT TO A NORTHERN            
STREAM WAVE EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE STATE FROM CENTRAL CANADA               
TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE CURRENT WATER VAPOR LOOP ALREADY             
INDICATES A STRONG UPPER JET OVER WESTERN CANADA. THIS JET IS                   
FORECAST TO DIVE INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION TUESDAY                    
AFTERNOON...STRENGTHENING TO 110 KTS. UPPER DIVERGENCE ASSOCIATED               
WITH THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF THIS JET WILL BE FOCUSED ACROSS                    
SOUTHERN MICHIGAN BY 00Z WED. THE UPPER JET WILL ALSO ALLOW THE MID             
LEVEL WAVE TO AMPLIFY AS IT CROSSES THE STATE. THE ASSOCIATED                   
SURFACE LOW IS EXPECTED TO PASS NORTH OF THE STATE...WHILE A SURFACE            
TROUGH AXIS SWINGS THROUGH SE MI BETWEEN 00Z AND 03Z WED. THIS                  
SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO HAVE GOOD DYNAMICS...WITH A STRONG YET BRIEF              
SHOT OF DCVA AND UPPER DIVERGENCE. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW LACK OF DEEP            
MOISTURE TO BE THE MAIN LIMITING FACTOR FOR PRECIP. ALL MODEL                   
SOLUTIONS DO HOWEVER SHOW A NARROW RIBBON HIGHER 850-700MB THETA E              
AIR ADVECTING AHEAD OF THE SURFACE TROUGH. THIS COMBINED WITH THE               
DYNAMICS WILL WARRANT A LOW CHANCE OF PRECIP BETWEEN THE 21Z TUE AND            
03Z WED TIME FRAME. WITH SURFACE TEMPS FORECAST TO RISE INTO THE                
UPPER 30S/NEAR 40 TUES AFTERNOON...THE BOUNDARY LAYER LOOKS TO BE               
WARM ENOUGH TO SUPPORT A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW.                                  
MID LEVEL HEIGHTS WILL QUICKLY REBOUND ACROSS THE STATE ON WEDNESDAY            
IN THE WAKE OF TUESDAY EVENINGS WAVE. SKIES SHOULD ALSO CLEAR OUT BY            
WEDNESDAY MORNING AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION.            
A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT...ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEPARTING LOW IS                   
FORECAST TO SINK S-SE ACROSS LAKE HURON LATE TUES NIGHT INTO                    
WEDNESDAY...CAUSING 850MB TEMPS TO DROP TO -8 TO -10C OVER THE THUMB            
REGION BY WED MORNING. THUS...HAVE BACKED OFF WED HIGHS A                       
BIT...CARRYING MAX TEMPS ONLY IN THE LOWER 30S IN THE THUMB TO NEAR             
40 WEST OF THE I-75 CORRIDOR.                                                   
BY WEDNESDAY EVENING THE NEXT WAVE IS ALREADY FORECAST TO BE                    
ADVANCING INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION IN THE VERY                       
PROGRESSIVE NORTHERN STREAM. WHILE THE MAIN SURFACE LOW IS FORECAST             
TO PASS NORTH OF THE STATE...MODELS DO SHOW AN OCCLUDED FRONT MOVING            
ACROSS SOUTHERN MI EARLY THURS MORNING. STRONG LOW TO MID LEVEL                 
THETA E ADVECTION LATE WED NIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING WILL AGAIN                
WARRANT A CHANCE OF PRECIP. MODELS ARE NOT OVERLY ROBUST WITH THE               
QPF. HOWEVER GIVEN THE MAGNITUDE OF ISENTROPIC ASCENT...WILL                    
CONTINUE WITH HIGH CHANCE POPS OVERNIGHT WED THROUGH THURS MORNING.             
A WARMING BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD SUPPORT MAINLY RAIN AROUND THE                  
DETROIT AREA. LOWER WET BULB ZERO HEIGHTS FARTHER NORTH SHOULD                  
HOWEVER SUPPORT A RAIN/SNOW MIX...POSSIBLY EVEN SOME SLEET.                     
WITH THE FLOW ALOFT TRANSITIONING TO MORE ZONAL ACROSS THE CONUS BY             
LATE IN THE WEEK...THE AMOUNT OF COLD AIR ADVECTION IS NOT OVERLY               
IMPRESSIVE IN THE WAKE OF THURSDAYS SYSTEM. THE CURRENT FORECAST HAS            
HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 40S THURS AND FRI WHICH STILL LOOKS                     
REASONABLE. THE NEXT SYSTEM TO MONITOR IS A WAVE IN THE SOUTHERN                
STREAM FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY ON SATURDAY. THE GFS             
HAS BEEN TRENDING MORE AMPLIFIED WITH THIS WAVE...AS WELL AS WITH               
MID LEVEL FGEN OVER THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES. THIS MORE AMPLIFIED               
SOLUTION SOLUTION WOULD BRING COLDER AIR INTO THE STATE ON SATURDAY             
ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL ACROSS THE METRO             
DETROIT AREA AND POINTS SOUTH. THE 12Z ECMWF ALONG WITH SEVERAL GFS             
ENSEMBLE MEMBERS KEEP THE BULK OF QPF SOUTH OF THE STATE. SO AT THIS            
TIME A CHANCE OF SNOW ACROSS THE SOUTHERN 1/3RD OF THE CWA SEEMS                
REASONABLE.                                                                     
&&                                                                              
.MARINE...                                                                      
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO PASS JUST NORTH OF LAKE HURON               
LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...SENDING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE            
LAKE AROUND 00Z. SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE LAKES             
TUES AFTERNOON. MODEL SOUNDINGS ONLY SHOW LIMITED MIXING HEIGHTS                
OVER LAKE HURON. THE SHALLOW INSTABILITY HOWEVER SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO            
PROVIDE FREQUENT GUSTS OF 25 TO 30 KNOTS TUES AFTERNOON. MIXING                 
HEIGHTS WILL INCREASE OVER THE LAKES WED NIGHT IN THE WAKE OF THE               
SURFACE FRONT. THE GRADIENT WILL HOWEVER BEGIN TO WEAKEN...THUS WIND            
GUSTS SHOULD REMAIN AROUND 25 KNOTS ACROSS THE OPEN WATERS OF LAKE              
HURON. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION BY WED                          
AFTERNOON...ALLOWING THE WINDS TO BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE.                    
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 144 PM EDT MON MAR 10 2008                            
AVIATION...                                                                     
OUTSIDE OF SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON AT KDET/KDTW AND               
A TEMPORARY MVFR DECK AT KFNT...TRANQUIL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED                
AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION. LIGHT AND                      
VARIABLE SURFACE WINDS WILL SLOWLY TREND WESTERLY THIS EVENING AS               
RETURN FLOW ARRIVES.                                                            
&&                                                                              
.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
MI...NONE.                                                                      
LAKE HURON...                                                                   
     BRISK WIND ADVISORY...OUTER SAGINAW BAY AND THE NEARSHORE WATERS           
     FROM PORT AUSTIN TO HARBOR BEACH...FROM 8 AM TUESDAY TO 8 PM               
     TUESDAY.                                                                   
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.                                                           
MI WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.                                                  
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHORT TERM...CB                                                                 
LONG TERM....SC                                                                 
MARINE.......SC                                                                 
AVIATION.....CB                                                                 
YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE            
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).                                    
</pre> mi                                                                       
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
140 PM EDT SUN MAR 9 2008                                                       
UPDATED AVIATION SECTION FOR 18Z TAFS                                           
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS INDICATED A BROAD TROUGH STRETCHING FROM            
NEW ENGLAND INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. WEAK ENE FLOW AHEAD OF SFC             
RIDGE OVER ONTARIO LOOKS LIKE IT MAY STILL BE PRODUCING FLURRIES IN             
DOWNTOWN MQT BUT OTHERWISE DRY CONDITIONS PREVAIL OVER THE REST OF              
THE CWA.                                                                        
&&                                                                              
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
TODAY...SOME LIGHT LES IS STILL POSSIBLE OVER NCNTRL AREAS FAVORED              
BY A ENE FLOW AS 850 MB TEMPS ARE AROUND -15C. SOME INCREASE IN LOW             
LEVEL MOISTURE COMBINED WITH DIURNAL HEATING AND FAIRLY STEEP                   
SFC-850 MB LAPSE RATES OF 7C/KM OR GREATER COULD LEAD TO SOME                   
ISOLATED DIURNAL SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE INTERIOR WEST HALF THIS                  
AFTERNOON AS A WEAK SFC TROF MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. IF THE WRF-ARW              
QPF VERIFIES...A FEW LOCATIONS UNDER THE HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS COULD             
SEE CLOSE TO AN INCH OF SNOW ACCUMULATION USING A 25/1 SNOW/WATER               
RATIO.                                                                          
TONIGHT...EXPECT CLEARING SKIES AS THE SFC RIDGE FROM ONTARIO                   
DESCENDS OVER THE AREA. WITH LIGHT WINDS AND PCPN WATER AROUND .1               
INCH...LOOK FOR IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS. I FOLLOWED THE            
COLDER GFS BIAS-CORRECTED MOS GUIDANCE WHICH HIGHLIGHTED MIN TEMPS              
REACHING AROUND -15F IN SOME INTERIOR LOCATIONS OF THE EAST HALF.               
THESE FCST TEMPS SEEM TOTALLY REASONABLE GIVEN READINGS OBSERVED                
UPSTREAM THIS MORNING OVER ONTARIO IN PROXIMITY TO THE RIDGE. LOWS              
COULD EVEN DROP CLOSE TO -10F FOR FAVORED COLD SPOTS IN THE WESTERN             
INTERIOR BEFORE BOUNDARY LYR WINDS INCREASE OVERNIGHT ON BACK SIDE              
OF RIDGE AND AHEAD OF NEXT APPROACHING CLIPPER SYSTEM.                          
AFTER A DRY MONDAY WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING BACK TOWARD THE                    
FREEZING MARK IN WSW RETURN FLOW...CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE               
MONDAY NIGHT. MODELS INDICATE TROUGH WILL NOT DIG ENOUGH TO THE                 
SOUTHWEST TO BRING MUCH PCPN INTO UPR MI. BETTER CHANCES FOR PCPN               
WILL BE OVR LAKE SUPERIOR AND THE ERN FCST AREA CLOSER TO THE TRACK             
OF THE SHORTWAVE AND ASSOC SFC LOW. KEPT IN A SLIGHT CHC FOR NRN AND            
ERN TIER COUNTIES MON NIGHT WITH A SLIGHT CHC FOR ALL OF THE CWA ON             
TUE EXCEPT FOR LOW CHC POPS IN THE EAST. MODELS 1000-850MB                      
THICKNESSES AND FCST SNDGS SUPPORT MORE SNOW AS PREDOMINANT PCPN                
TYPE MON NIGHT AND TUE. A VERY SHALLOW WARM LAYER NEAR SFC WITH                 
DOWNSLOPING NW WINDS COULD SUPPORT A RAIN/SNOW MIX IN THE FAR SOUTH             
CENTRAL CWA.                                                                    
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION (FOR THE 18Z TAF ISSUANCE)...                                         
SCT-BKN LK SC/CU AT EACH SITE. NE-E WINDS KEEP A VERY SMALL CHANCE              
OF SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS REDEVELOPING AT KSAW...BUT EXPECT MOST OF            
THE SNOW SHOWERS WILL OCCUR FARTHER INLAND. SKIES WILL CLEAR THIS               
EVENING AND SHOULD REMAIN CLEAR THROUGH TOMORROW AS HIGH PRESSURE               
RIDGE IS OVER THE AREA.                                                         
&&                                                                              
.MARINE (FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)...                       
30.4 INCH HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OVERHEAD LATE THIS                            
AFTERNOON...BEFORE SLOWLY SHIFTING SOUTH TO WESTERN KENTUCKY BY LATE            
TUESDAY NIGHT.  29.8 INCH LOW PRESSURE FROM MANITOBA MONDAY                     
AFTERNOON...WILL MOVE TO JUST NORTH OF LAKE SUPERIOR TUESDAY MORNING            
BEFORE SLIDING ACROSS UPPER MICHIGAN TUESDAY AFTERNOON.  THIS LOW               
WILL BRING ABOUT THE NEXT CHANCE OF WINDS AT OR ABOVE 25 KTS.  HIGH             
PRESSURE OF 30.0 INCHES WILL THEN BRIEFLY TAKE OVER TUESDAY NIGHT               
INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY. A 29.4 INCH LOW WILL MOVE INTO MANITOBA                   
WEDNESDAY AND THROUGH CENTRAL LAKE SUPERIOR ON THURSDAY.                        
&&                                                                              
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
UPPER MICHIGAN...NONE.                                                          
LAKE SUPERIOR...NONE.                                                           
LAKE MICHIGAN...NONE.                                                           
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SYNOPSIS/DISCUSSION...VOSS                                                      
AVIATION...JLA                                                                  
MARINE...KF                                                                     
</pre> mi                                                                       
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI                                             
1241 PM EDT SUN MAR 9 2008                                                      
.AVIATION...SCT (VFR CIGS) LAKE CLOUDS WILL BE FOUND AT TVC EARLY IN            
THE AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...DRY AIR ACROSS NRN MICHIGAN AND HIGH                 
PRESSURE BUILDING SOUTH OUT OF ONTARIO...WILL LEAD TO VFR CONDITIONS            
AT TVC/PLN/APN THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS (AND BEYOND)...WITH SOME               
SCT MID AND HIGH CLOUD MOVING THROUGH.                                          
ADAM                                                                            
&&                                                                              
.UPDATE...ISSUED AT 1036 AM.                                                    
VERY DRY BUT COLD AIRMASS REMAINS THE DOMINANT PLAYER ACROSS                    
NORTHERN MICHIGAN THIS MORNING WITH SOLID BELOW ZERO LOW                        
TEMPERATURES AT MANY INLAND AREAS. VERY WEAK SFC TROUGH BISECTING               
NRN LOWER MICHIGAN WHILE HIGH PRESSURE REBUILDING SOUTHWARD OUT OF              
ONTARIO. LIGHT NW FLOW OFF LAKE MICHIGAN HAS MANAGED TO GENERATE                
NARROW AREA OF LAKE SNOW SHOWERS OVERNIGHT AND THIS MORNING...                  
IMPACTING THE SW COUNTIES WITH VSBYS STILL BRIEFLY DIPPING TO AROUND            
A MILE OR SO AT FKS/CAD. MINOR OVERNIGHT FLUFFY ACCUMULATIONS OF AN             
INCH OR LESS REPORTED BY SPOTTERS IN THOSE AREAS. FINALLY...MID                 
LEVEL SHEAR AXIS STRETCHES FROM THE PLAINS INTO THE LOWER LAKES                 
GENERATING SOME LIGHT SNOW NEAR CHICAGO AND THROWING HIGH CLOUD                 
COVER INTO NRN MICHIGAN.                                                        
REST OF TODAY...SIMILAR STORY TO THE LAST FEW DAYS WITH MINOR LAKE              
EFFECT CLOUDS/PRECIP STARTING OFF THE DAY. HOWEVER...WEAKENING MEAN             
LOW LEVEL FLOW/A DRY ANTECEDENT AIRMASS OVER THE REGION/DAYTIME                 
MIXING AND MODERATING LOW LEVEL TEMPS SHOULD AGAIN DISSIPATE LAKE               
STCU AND SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY BY EARLY AFTERNOON. MID LEVEL SHEAR               
AXIS TO THE SOUTH WILL CONTINUE TO TOSS THICKER MID-HIGH CLOUD COVER            
INTO NRN MICHIGAN...MAINLY THE SRN COUNTIES...BUT MAY HAVE ONLY                 
MINIMAL IMPACT ON PERCEIVED SKY CONDITIONS. OVERALL...PLAN ON HAVING            
SUNNY/MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES FOR MOST AREAS THIS AFTERNOON...PARTLY                 
SUNNY SKIES OVER THE FAR SRN COUNTIES EXCEPT FOR A FEW MORE HOURS OF            
CLOUDY SKIES/LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS IN THE SW AREAS.                                
BELOW NORMAL AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPS ONCE AGAIN...ALTHOUGH WITH                    
MODERATING LOW LEVEL TEMPS...READINGS EXPECTED TO BREAK INTO THE 20S            
JUST ABOUT EVERYWHERE.                                                          
ADAM                                                                            
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 422 AM EDT SUN MAR 9 2008/                          
DISCUSSION...03Z SURFACE/RUC ANALYSIS AND IR/WV/RADAR IMAGERY SHOW              
A PERSISTENT AMPLIFIED PATTERN (POSITIVE PNA) ACROSS NORTH                      
AMERICA...WITH THE EASTERN TROUGH CONSISTING OF DUAL 500MB CLOSED               
LOWS...ONE OVER MINNESOTA...AND THE OTHER OVER UPSTATE NEW YORK.                
WHILE THE LATTER IS EXITING TO THE NE...SMALLER SCALE SHORTWAVES                
ROTATING AROUND THE WESTERN UPPER LOW IS SUPPORTING LIGHT SNOW OVER             
MN AND IA IN A REGION OF MODEST 850-500MB -DIVQ.  AIR ACROSS                    
NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN IS MUCH DRIER JUDGING BY THE 00Z SOUNDINGS              
ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES REGION THANKS TO LOW LEVEL             
RIDGING AND A POLAR CONTINENTAL AIRMASS.  BECAUSE OF THIS DRY                   
AIR...5-10KFT CLOUD DECK SPREADING EAST ACROSS WI/IL IS HAVING A                
DEVIL OF A TIME EXTENDING INTO NORTHERN MICHIGAN...RATHER                       
PREFERRING TAKING A MORE SOUTHERN TRACK ACROSS SOUTHERN LOWER.  ONLY            
A FEW LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS EXIST FROM MANISTEE TO THE LEELANAU              
PENINSULA AT THIS HOUR.  FORECAST CONCERNS ARE MINIMAL FOR THIS TIME OF         
THE YEAR...AND CONSISTENT OF NUISANT LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWER                    
POTENTIAL FIRST...THEN SKY AND TEMPS SECOND OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.             
TODAY...CLOSED LOW OVER MN WILL SHEAR OUT AS IT MIGRATES TOWARDS THE            
SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES.  MID/UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE WILL ROTATE AROUND              
THE WEAK IOWA SHORTWAVE...PROGGED TO TRACK ACROSS NORTHERN                      
IL/IN/OH...AND SPREAD MID/HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS NORTHERN                           
MICHIGAN...THICKER AS YOU HEAD SOUTH.  HOWEVER...VERY DRY AIR                   
CENTERED AROUND 750MB WITH TRAJECTORIES ORIGINATING OUT OF NE                   
ONTARIO AND QUEBEC WILL KEEP THE AREA PRECIP FREE.  LAKE EFFECT WILL            
CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE TO REV UP ESPECIALLY WITH 850MB TEMPS                      
MODERATING FROM -15C TO -13C AND LOW LEVEL WIND FLOW DIMINISHING TO             
LESS THAN 10KTS BY THIS AFTERNOON.  THINK THAT ANY LIGHT SNOW SHOWER            
AND FLURRY ACTIVITY WILL BE CONFINED TO THE MORNING HOURS FROM THE              
MANISTEE TO GRAND TRAVERSE BAY CORRIDOR AND BE MOSTLY CONFINED TO               
THE LAKE SHORES. AS A RESULT...MOST LOCATIONS AWAY FROM THE                     
AFOREMENTIONED AREA WILL SEE PARTLY IF NOT MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES FOR               
MUCH OF THE DAY.  HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 20S LOOK FINE.                        
TONIGHT...SHEARED TROUGH AXIS WILL PASS ACROSS THE STATE AND                    
MID/UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE WILL THIN AS A RESULT.  DO NOT BELIEVE                 
THESE CLOUDS WILL HAVE MUCH OF AN IMPACT ON TEMPERATURES AND EXPECT             
ANOTHER EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL COOLING NIGHT IS IN STORE WITH SURFACE            
HIGH PRESSURE MAINTAINING ITS DOMINANCE ACROSS THE AREA.  ONLY                  
POSSIBLE PITFALL IS THAT LOW LEVEL WINDS INCREASE LATE AND SHALLOW              
INSTABILITY MAY BE ENOUGH FOR A COUPLE FLURRIES ALONG THE LAKE                  
MICHIGAN SHORELINE.  BUT THINK DRY AIR (850-700MB RH AROUND 10-20               
PCT) AND LAND BREEZE INTERACTION WILL BE ENOUGH TO THWART ANY FLURRY            
ACTIVITY. LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE AND BELOW ZERO.                       
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...SHORTWAVE RIDGING MOVES IN ON MONDAY WHILE            
THE BROAD SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS SOUTH OF THE GREAT LAKES.                
WEAK WARM ADVECTION WILL ENSUE...ENOUGH TO BUMP UP TEMPS INTO THE               
LOW 30S.  OUTSIDE OF SOME MORNING LAKE CLOUDS AND RESULTING DIURNAL             
CU (WHICH SHOULD MIX OUT BY EARLY AFTERNOON) AS WEST FLOW                       
STRENGTHENS...MOST AREAS WILL SEE MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES BY MID TO LATE             
AFTERNOON.  MID/UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE TOWARDS              
EVENING AS MOISTURE SPREADS IN AHEAD OF THE NEXT CLIPPER SHORTWAVE.             
ISENTROPIC ASCENT INCREASES AS WELL...BUT LIMITED MOISTURE BELOW                
700MB WILL PREVENT ANY PRECIP FROM REACHING THE GROUND.  WITH                   
STRENGTHENING SW FLOW AND INVASION OF WARMER AIR...LOWS WILL BE 15              
TO 20 DEGREES WARMER THAN SUNDAY NIGHT.                                         
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...APPROACHING CLIPPER SHORTWAVE PASSES                 
ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR AND NORTHERN LAKE HURON ON TUESDAY.  BEST QG               
FORCING WILL LIE AHEAD AND TO THE NORTH OF THE SHORTWAVE.  GFS IS AN            
OUTLIER IN THIS REGARD...AND BRINGS A WEAK ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW               
AND WIDE SWATH OF PRECIP ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER...WHILE OTHER LEADING            
MODELS KEEP PRECIP CHANCES NORTH OF THE STRAITS.                                
REGARDLESS...THERMAL PROFILES SUGGEST PRECIP WILL FALL AS ALL                   
SNOW...EVEN IN THE SOUTHERN GFS SOLUTION AND HAVE REMOVED RAIN                  
MENTION.  WILL KEEP LOW CHANCE POP ALL THE WAY TO M-55 HOWEVER...BUT            
WOULDN/T BE SURPRISED IF PRECIP CHANCES ARE REMOVED ACROSS THE                  
SOUTHERN CWA.  SHORTWAVE RIDGING AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RETURN               
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.  A CHANCE OF PRECIP THEN ARRIVES                  
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.  HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 30S              
TO LOW 40S OVER THIS PERIOD.                                                    
MPC                                                                             
&&                                                                              
.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
MI...NONE.                                                                      
LM...NONE.                                                                      
LH...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</pre> mi                                                                       
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI                                             
1036 AM EDT SUN MAR 9 2008                                                      
.UPDATE...VERY DRY BUT COLD AIRMASS REMAINS THE DOMINANT PLAYER                 
ACROSS NORTHERN MICHIGAN THIS MORNING WITH SOLID BELOW ZERO LOW                 
TEMPERATURES AT MANY INLAND AREAS. VERY WEAK SFC TROUGH BISECTING               
NRN LOWER MICHIGAN WHILE HIGH PRESSURE REBUILDING SOUTHWARD OUT OF              
ONTARIO. LIGHT NW FLOW OFF LAKE MICHIGAN HAS MANAGED TO GENERATE                
NARROW AREA OF LAKE SNOW SHOWERS OVERNIGHT AND THIS MORNING...                  
IMPACTING THE SW COUNTIES WITH VSBYS STILL BRIEFLY DIPPING TO AROUND            
A MILE OR SO AT FKS/CAD. MINOR OVERNIGHT FLUFFY ACCUMULATIONS OF AN             
INCH OR LESS REPORTED BY SPOTTERS IN THOSE AREAS. FINALLY...MID                 
LEVEL SHEAR AXIS STRETCHES FROM THE PLAINS INTO THE LOWER LAKES                 
GENERATING SOME LIGHT SNOW NEAR CHICAGO AND THROWING HIGH CLOUD                 
COVER INTO NRN MICHIGAN.                                                        
REST OF TODAY...SIMILAR STORY TO THE LAST FEW DAYS WITH MINOR LAKE              
EFFECT CLOUDS/PRECIP STARTING OFF THE DAY. HOWEVER...WEAKENING MEAN             
LOW LEVEL FLOW/A DRY ANTECEDENT AIRMASS OVER THE REGION/DAYTIME                 
MIXING AND MODERATING LOW LEVEL TEMPS SHOULD AGAIN DISSIPATE LAKE               
STCU AND SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY BY EARLY AFTERNOON. MID LEVEL SHEAR               
AXIS TO THE SOUTH WILL CONTINUE TO TOSS THICKER MID-HIGH CLOUD COVER            
INTO NRN MICHIGAN...MAINLY THE SRN COUNTIES...BUT MAY HAVE ONLY                 
MINIMAL IMPACT ON PERCEIVED SKY CONDITIONS. OVERALL...PLAN ON HAVING            
SUNNY/MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES FOR MOST AREAS THIS AFTERNOON...PARTLY                 
SUNNY SKIES OVER THE FAR SRN COUNTIES EXCEPT FOR A FEW MORE HOURS OF            
CLOUDY SKIES/LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS IN THE SW AREAS.                                
BELOW NORMAL AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPS ONCE AGAIN...ALTHOUGH WITH                    
MODERATING LOW LEVEL TEMPS...READINGS EXPECTED TO BREAK INTO THE 20S            
JUST ABOUT EVERYWHERE.                                                          
ADAM                                                                            
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...ISSUED AT 705 AM.                                                   
VERY FEW CONCERNS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. LAKE CLOUDS WILL PRODUCE              
MVFR CIGS AND FLURRIES AT TVC THIS MORNING. WEAKENING WIND FIELDS               
COMBINED WITH MIXING SHOULD HELP CIGS RISE AND SCATTER BY MIDDAY OR             
NOT TOO LONG THEREAFTER. OUTSIDE OF POSSIBLE DIURNAL CU AROUND                  
MIDDAY AT APN...ALL TAF SITES SHOULD SEE VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL.                
MPC                                                                             
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 422 AM EDT SUN MAR 9 2008/                          
DISCUSSION...03Z SURFACE/RUC ANALYSIS AND IR/WV/RADAR IMAGERY SHOW              
A PERSISTENT AMPLIFIED PATTERN (POSITIVE PNA) ACROSS NORTH                      
AMERICA...WITH THE EASTERN TROUGH CONSISTING OF DUAL 500MB CLOSED               
LOWS...ONE OVER MINNESOTA...AND THE OTHER OVER UPSTATE NEW YORK.                
WHILE THE LATTER IS EXITING TO THE NE...SMALLER SCALE SHORTWAVES                
ROTATING AROUND THE WESTERN UPPER LOW IS SUPPORTING LIGHT SNOW OVER             
MN AND IA IN A REGION OF MODEST 850-500MB -DIVQ.  AIR ACROSS                    
NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN IS MUCH DRIER JUDGING BY THE 00Z SOUNDINGS              
ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES REGION THANKS TO LOW LEVEL             
RIDGING AND A POLAR CONTINENTAL AIRMASS.  BECAUSE OF THIS DRY                   
AIR...5-10KFT CLOUD DECK SPREADING EAST ACROSS WI/IL IS HAVING A                
DEVIL OF A TIME EXTENDING INTO NORTHERN MICHIGAN...RATHER                       
PREFERRING TAKING A MORE SOUTHERN TRACK ACROSS SOUTHERN LOWER.  ONLY            
A FEW LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS EXIST FROM MANISTEE TO THE LEELANAU              
PENINSULA AT THIS HOUR.  FORECAST CONCERNS ARE MINIMAL FOR THIS TIME OF         
THE YEAR...AND CONSISTENT OF NUISANT LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWER                    
POTENTIAL FIRST...THEN SKY AND TEMPS SECOND OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.             
TODAY...CLOSED LOW OVER MN WILL SHEAR OUT AS IT MIGRATES TOWARDS THE            
SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES.  MID/UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE WILL ROTATE AROUND              
THE WEAK IOWA SHORTWAVE...PROGGED TO TRACK ACROSS NORTHERN                      
IL/IN/OH...AND SPREAD MID/HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS NORTHERN                           
MICHIGAN...THICKER AS YOU HEAD SOUTH.  HOWEVER...VERY DRY AIR                   
CENTERED AROUND 750MB WITH TRAJECTORIES ORIGINATING OUT OF NE                   
ONTARIO AND QUEBEC WILL KEEP THE AREA PRECIP FREE.  LAKE EFFECT WILL            
CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE TO REV UP ESPECIALLY WITH 850MB TEMPS                      
MODERATING FROM -15C TO -13C AND LOW LEVEL WIND FLOW DIMINISHING TO             
LESS THAN 10KTS BY THIS AFTERNOON.  THINK THAT ANY LIGHT SNOW SHOWER            
AND FLURRY ACTIVITY WILL BE CONFINED TO THE MORNING HOURS FROM THE              
MANISTEE TO GRAND TRAVERSE BAY CORRIDOR AND BE MOSTLY CONFINED TO               
THE LAKE SHORES. AS A RESULT...MOST LOCATIONS AWAY FROM THE                     
AFOREMENTIONED AREA WILL SEE PARTLY IF NOT MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES FOR               
MUCH OF THE DAY.  HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 20S LOOK FINE.                        
TONIGHT...SHEARED TROUGH AXIS WILL PASS ACROSS THE STATE AND                    
MID/UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE WILL THIN AS A RESULT.  DO NOT BELIEVE                 
THESE CLOUDS WILL HAVE MUCH OF AN IMPACT ON TEMPERATURES AND EXPECT             
ANOTHER EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL COOLING NIGHT IS IN STORE WITH SURFACE            
HIGH PRESSURE MAINTAINING ITS DOMINANCE ACROSS THE AREA.  ONLY                  
POSSIBLE PITFALL IS THAT LOW LEVEL WINDS INCREASE LATE AND SHALLOW              
INSTABILITY MAY BE ENOUGH FOR A COUPLE FLURRIES ALONG THE LAKE                  
MICHIGAN SHORELINE.  BUT THINK DRY AIR (850-700MB RH AROUND 10-20               
PCT) AND LAND BREEZE INTERACTION WILL BE ENOUGH TO THWART ANY FLURRY            
ACTIVITY. LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE AND BELOW ZERO.                       
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...SHORTWAVE RIDGING MOVES IN ON MONDAY WHILE            
THE BROAD SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS SOUTH OF THE GREAT LAKES.                
WEAK WARM ADVECTION WILL ENSUE...ENOUGH TO BUMP UP TEMPS INTO THE               
LOW 30S.  OUTSIDE OF SOME MORNING LAKE CLOUDS AND RESULTING DIURNAL             
CU (WHICH SHOULD MIX OUT BY EARLY AFTERNOON) AS WEST FLOW                       
STRENGTHENS...MOST AREAS WILL SEE MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES BY MID TO LATE             
AFTERNOON.  MID/UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE TOWARDS              
EVENING AS MOISTURE SPREADS IN AHEAD OF THE NEXT CLIPPER SHORTWAVE.             
ISENTROPIC ASCENT INCREASES AS WELL...BUT LIMITED MOISTURE BELOW                
700MB WILL PREVENT ANY PRECIP FROM REACHING THE GROUND.  WITH                   
STRENGTHENING SW FLOW AND INVASION OF WARMER AIR...LOWS WILL BE 15              
TO 20 DEGREES WARMER THAN SUNDAY NIGHT.                                         
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...APPROACHING CLIPPER SHORTWAVE PASSES                 
ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR AND NORTHERN LAKE HURON ON TUESDAY.  BEST QG               
FORCING WILL LIE AHEAD AND TO THE NORTH OF THE SHORTWAVE.  GFS IS AN            
OUTLIER IN THIS REGARD...AND BRINGS A WEAK ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW               
AND WIDE SWATH OF PRECIP ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER...WHILE OTHER LEADING            
MODELS KEEP PRECIP CHANCES NORTH OF THE STRAITS.                                
REGARDLESS...THERMAL PROFILES SUGGEST PRECIP WILL FALL AS ALL                   
SNOW...EVEN IN THE SOUTHERN GFS SOLUTION AND HAVE REMOVED RAIN                  
MENTION.  WILL KEEP LOW CHANCE POP ALL THE WAY TO M-55 HOWEVER...BUT            
WOULDN/T BE SURPRISED IF PRECIP CHANCES ARE REMOVED ACROSS THE                  
SOUTHERN CWA.  SHORTWAVE RIDGING AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RETURN               
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.  A CHANCE OF PRECIP THEN ARRIVES                  
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.  HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 30S              
TO LOW 40S OVER THIS PERIOD.                                                    
MPC                                                                             
&&                                                                              
.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
MI...NONE.                                                                      
LM...NONE.                                                                      
LH...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</pre> mi                                                                       
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
741 AM EDT SUN MAR 9 2008                                                       
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS INDICATED A BROAD TROUGH STRETCHING FROM            
NEW ENGLAND INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. WEAK ENE FLOW AHEAD OF SFC             
RIDGE OVER ONTARIO LOOKS LIKE IT MAY STILL BE PRODUCING FLURRIES IN             
DOWNTOWN MQT BUT OTHERWISE DRY CONDITIONS PREVAIL OVER THE REST OF              
THE CWA.                                                                        
&&                                                                              
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
TODAY...SOME LIGHT LES IS STILL POSSIBLE OVER NCNTRL AREAS FAVORED              
BY A ENE FLOW AS 850 MB TEMPS ARE AROUND -15C. SOME INCREASE IN LOW             
LEVEL MOISTURE COMBINED WITH DIURNAL HEATING AND FAIRLY STEEP                   
SFC-850 MB LAPSE RATES OF 7C/KM OR GREATER COULD LEAD TO SOME                   
ISOLATED DIURNAL SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE INTERIOR WEST HALF THIS                  
AFTERNOON AS A WEAK SFC TROF MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. IF THE WRF-ARW              
QPF VERIFIES...A FEW LOCATIONS UNDER THE HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS COULD             
SEE CLOSE TO AN INCH OF SNOW ACCUMULATION USING A 25/1 SNOW/WATER               
RATIO.                                                                          
TONIGHT...EXPECT CLEARING SKIES AS THE SFC RIDGE FROM ONTARIO                   
DESCENDS OVER THE AREA. WITH LIGHT WINDS AND PCPN WATER AROUND .1               
INCH...LOOK FOR IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS. I FOLLOWED THE            
COLDER GFS BIAS-CORRECTED MOS GUIDANCE WHICH HIGHLIGHTED MIN TEMPS              
REACHING AROUND -15F IN SOME INTERIOR LOCATIONS OF THE EAST HALF.               
THESE FCST TEMPS SEEM TOTALLY REASONABLE GIVEN READINGS OBSERVED                
UPSTREAM THIS MORNING OVER ONTARIO IN PROXIMITY TO THE RIDGE. LOWS              
COULD EVEN DROP CLOSE TO -10F FOR FAVORED COLD SPOTS IN THE WESTERN             
INTERIOR BEFORE BOUNDARY LYR WINDS INCREASE OVERNIGHT ON BACK SIDE              
OF RIDGE AND AHEAD OF NEXT APPROACHING CLIPPER SYSTEM.                          
AFTER A DRY MONDAY WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING BACK TOWARD THE                    
FREEZING MARK IN WSW RETURN FLOW...CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE               
MONDAY NIGHT. MODELS INDICATE TROUGH WILL NOT DIG ENOUGH TO THE                 
SOUTHWEST TO BRING MUCH PCPN INTO UPR MI. BETTER CHANCES FOR PCPN               
WILL BE OVR LAKE SUPERIOR AND THE ERN FCST AREA CLOSER TO THE TRACK             
OF THE SHORTWAVE AND ASSOC SFC LOW. KEPT IN A SLIGHT CHC FOR NRN AND            
ERN TIER COUNTIES MON NIGHT WITH A SLIGHT CHC FOR ALL OF THE CWA ON             
TUE EXCEPT FOR LOW CHC POPS IN THE EAST. MODELS 1000-850MB                      
THICKNESSES AND FCST SNDGS SUPPORT MORE SNOW AS PREDOMINANT PCPN                
TYPE MON NIGHT AND TUE. A VERY SHALLOW WARM LAYER NEAR SFC WITH                 
DOWNSLOPING NW WINDS COULD SUPPORT A RAIN/SNOW MIX IN THE FAR SOUTH             
CENTRAL CWA.                                                                    
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION (FOR THE 12Z TAF ISSUANCE)...                                         
A STREAM OF MVFR CEIGS THE DEVELOPED OVER UPPER MICHIGAN PRIOR TO               
09Z...BUT HAS SIGNIFICANTLY WEAKENED SINCE THEN.  SO MOSTLY VFR                 
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE...BUT HAVE TO WORRY ABOUT MVFR CIGS                    
POSSIBLY COMING IN FROM THE LAKE WITH NE FLOW AND POSSIBLE UPSLOPE              
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.                                                         
&&                                                                              
.MARINE (FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)...                       
30.4 INCH HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OVERHEAD LATE THIS                            
AFTERNOON...BEFORE SLOWLY SHIFTING SOUTH TO WESTERN KENTUCKY BY LATE            
TUESDAY NIGHT.  29.8 INCH LOW PRESSURE FROM MANITOBA MONDAY                     
AFTERNOON...WILL MOVE TO JUST NORTH OF LAKE SUPERIOR TUESDAY MORNING            
BEFORE SLIDING ACROSS UPPER MICHIGAN TUESDAY AFTERNOON.  THIS LOW               
WILL BRING ABOUT THE NEXT CHANCE OF WINDS AT OR ABOVE 25 KTS.  HIGH             
PRESSURE OF 30.0 INCHES WILL THEN BRIEFLY TAKE OVER TUESDAY NIGHT               
INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY. A 29.4 INCH LOW WILL MOVE INTO MANITOBA                   
WEDNESDAY AND THROUGH CENTRAL LAKE SUPERIOR ON THURSDAY.                        
&&                                                                              
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
UPPER MICHIGAN...NONE.                                                          
LAKE SUPERIOR...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH 8 AM EDT SUNDAY            
   FOR LSZ267.                                                                  
LAKE MICHIGAN...NONE.                                                           
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SYNOPSIS/DISCUSSION...VOSS                                                      
AVIATION...KF                                                                   
MARINE...KF                                                                     
</pre> mi                                                                       
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI                                             
705 AM EDT SUN MAR 9 2008                                                       
.AVIATION...VERY FEW CONCERNS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. LAKE CLOUDS               
WILL PRODUCE MVFR CIGS AND FLURRIES AT TVC THIS MORNING. WEAKENING              
WIND FIELDS COMBINED WITH MIXING SHOULD HELP CIGS RISE AND SCATTER              
BY MIDDAY OR NOT TOO LONG THEREAFTER. OUTSIDE OF POSSIBLE DIURNAL               
CU AROUND MIDDAY AT APN...ALL TAF SITES SHOULD SEE VFR CONDITIONS               
PREVAIL.                                                                        
MPC                                                                             
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 422 AM EDT SUN MAR 9 2008/                          
DISCUSSION...03Z SURFACE/RUC ANALYSIS AND IR/WV/RADAR IMAGERY SHOW              
A PERSISTENT AMPLIFIED PATTERN (POSITIVE PNA) ACROSS NORTH                      
AMERICA...WITH THE EASTERN TROUGH CONSISTING OF DUAL 500MB CLOSED               
LOWS...ONE OVER MINNESOTA...AND THE OTHER OVER UPSTATE NEW YORK.                
WHILE THE LATTER IS EXITING TO THE NE...SMALLER SCALE SHORTWAVES                
ROTATING AROUND THE WESTERN UPPER LOW IS SUPPORTING LIGHT SNOW OVER             
MN AND IA IN A REGION OF MODEST 850-500MB -DIVQ.  AIR ACROSS                    
NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN IS MUCH DRIER JUDGING BY THE 00Z SOUNDINGS              
ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES REGION THANKS TO LOW LEVEL             
RIDGING AND A POLAR CONTINENTAL AIRMASS.  BECAUSE OF THIS DRY                   
AIR...5-10KFT CLOUD DECK SPREADING EAST ACROSS WI/IL IS HAVING A                
DEVIL OF A TIME EXTENDING INTO NORTHERN MICHIGAN...RATHER                       
PREFERRING TAKING A MORE SOUTHERN TRACK ACROSS SOUTHERN LOWER.  ONLY            
A FEW LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS EXIST FROM MANISTEE TO THE LEELANAU              
PENINSULA AT THIS HOUR.  FORECAST CONCERNS ARE MINIMAL FOR THIS TIME OF         
THE YEAR...AND CONSISTENT OF NUISANT LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWER                    
POTENTIAL FIRST...THEN SKY AND TEMPS SECOND OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.             
TODAY...CLOSED LOW OVER MN WILL SHEAR OUT AS IT MIGRATES TOWARDS THE            
SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES.  MID/UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE WILL ROTATE AROUND              
THE WEAK IOWA SHORTWAVE...PROGGED TO TRACK ACROSS NORTHERN                      
IL/IN/OH...AND SPREAD MID/HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS NORTHERN                           
MICHIGAN...THICKER AS YOU HEAD SOUTH.  HOWEVER...VERY DRY AIR                   
CENTERED AROUND 750MB WITH TRAJECTORIES ORIGINATING OUT OF NE                   
ONTARIO AND QUEBEC WILL KEEP THE AREA PRECIP FREE.  LAKE EFFECT WILL            
CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE TO REV UP ESPECIALLY WITH 850MB TEMPS                      
MODERATING FROM -15C TO -13C AND LOW LEVEL WIND FLOW DIMINISHING TO             
LESS THAN 10KTS BY THIS AFTERNOON.  THINK THAT ANY LIGHT SNOW SHOWER            
AND FLURRY ACTIVITY WILL BE CONFINED TO THE MORNING HOURS FROM THE              
MANISTEE TO GRAND TRAVERSE BAY CORRIDOR AND BE MOSTLY CONFINED TO               
THE LAKE SHORES. AS A RESULT...MOST LOCATIONS AWAY FROM THE                     
AFOREMENTIONED AREA WILL SEE PARTLY IF NOT MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES FOR               
MUCH OF THE DAY.  HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 20S LOOK FINE.                        
TONIGHT...SHEARED TROUGH AXIS WILL PASS ACROSS THE STATE AND                    
MID/UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE WILL THIN AS A RESULT.  DO NOT BELIEVE                 
THESE CLOUDS WILL HAVE MUCH OF AN IMPACT ON TEMPERATURES AND EXPECT             
ANOTHER EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL COOLING NIGHT IS IN STORE WITH SURFACE            
HIGH PRESSURE MAINTAINING ITS DOMINANCE ACROSS THE AREA.  ONLY                  
POSSIBLE PITFALL IS THAT LOW LEVEL WINDS INCREASE LATE AND SHALLOW              
INSTABILITY MAY BE ENOUGH FOR A COUPLE FLURRIES ALONG THE LAKE                  
MICHIGAN SHORELINE.  BUT THINK DRY AIR (850-700MB RH AROUND 10-20               
PCT) AND LAND BREEZE INTERACTION WILL BE ENOUGH TO THWART ANY FLURRY            
ACTIVITY. LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE AND BELOW ZERO.                       
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...SHORTWAVE RIDGING MOVES IN ON MONDAY WHILE            
THE BROAD SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS SOUTH OF THE GREAT LAKES.                
WEAK WARM ADVECTION WILL ENSUE...ENOUGH TO BUMP UP TEMPS INTO THE               
LOW 30S.  OUTSIDE OF SOME MORNING LAKE CLOUDS AND RESULTING DIURNAL             
CU (WHICH SHOULD MIX OUT BY EARLY AFTERNOON) AS WEST FLOW                       
STRENGTHENS...MOST AREAS WILL SEE MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES BY MID TO LATE             
AFTERNOON.  MID/UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE TOWARDS              
EVENING AS MOISTURE SPREADS IN AHEAD OF THE NEXT CLIPPER SHORTWAVE.             
ISENTROPIC ASCENT INCREASES AS WELL...BUT LIMITED MOISTURE BELOW                
700MB WILL PREVENT ANY PRECIP FROM REACHING THE GROUND.  WITH                   
STRENGTHENING SW FLOW AND INVASION OF WARMER AIR...LOWS WILL BE 15              
TO 20 DEGREES WARMER THAN SUNDAY NIGHT.                                         
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...APPROACHING CLIPPER SHORTWAVE PASSES                 
ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR AND NORTHERN LAKE HURON ON TUESDAY.  BEST QG               
FORCING WILL LIE AHEAD AND TO THE NORTH OF THE SHORTWAVE.  GFS IS AN            
OUTLIER IN THIS REGARD...AND BRINGS A WEAK ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW               
AND WIDE SWATH OF PRECIP ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER...WHILE OTHER LEADING            
MODELS KEEP PRECIP CHANCES NORTH OF THE STRAITS.                                
REGARDLESS...THERMAL PROFILES SUGGEST PRECIP WILL FALL AS ALL                   
SNOW...EVEN IN THE SOUTHERN GFS SOLUTION AND HAVE REMOVED RAIN                  
MENTION.  WILL KEEP LOW CHANCE POP ALL THE WAY TO M-55 HOWEVER...BUT            
WOULDNT BE SURPRISED IF PRECIP CHANCES ARE REMOVED ACROSS THE                   
SOUTHERN CWA.  SHORTWAVE RIDGING AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RETURN               
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.  A CHANCE OF PRECIP THEN ARRIVES                  
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.  HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 30S              
TO LOW 40S OVER THIS PERIOD.                                                    
MPC                                                                             
AVIATION.../ISSUED 1112 PM EST SAT MAR 8 2008/                                  
A QUIET 24 HOURS COMING UP WITH LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES. THE                
ONLY CLOUDS THAT WILL BE AROUND WILL BE SCT HIGH CLOUDS ABOVE                   
20000 FT OR SOME SCT LAKE CLOUDS AROUND 3500 FT. NO PRECIPITATION               
IS EXPECTED AT ANY OF THE TAF SITES DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.                   
LUTZ                                                                            
&&                                                                              
.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
MI...NONE.                                                                      
LM...NONE.                                                                      
LH...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</pre> mi                                                                       
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI                                             
422 AM EDT SUN MAR 9 2008                                                       
.DISCUSSION...03Z SURFACE/RUC ANALYSIS AND IR/WV/RADAR IMAGERY SHOW             
A PERSISTENT AMPLIFIED PATTERN (POSITIVE PNA) ACROSS NORTH                      
AMERICA...WITH THE EASTERN TROUGH CONSISTING OF DUAL 500MB CLOSED               
LOWS...ONE OVER MINNESOTA...AND THE OTHER OVER UPSTATE NEW YORK.                
WHILE THE LATTER IS EXITING TO THE NE...SMALLER SCALE SHORTWAVES                
ROTATING AROUND THE WESTERN UPPER LOW IS SUPPORTING LIGHT SNOW OVER             
MN AND IA IN A REGION OF MODEST 850-500MB -DIVQ.  AIR ACROSS                    
NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN IS MUCH DRIER JUDGING BY THE 00Z SOUNDINGS              
ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES REGION THANKS TO LOW LEVEL             
RIDGING AND A POLAR CONTINENTAL AIRMASS.  BECAUSE OF THIS DRY                   
AIR...5-10KFT CLOUD DECK SPREADING EAST ACROSS WI/IL IS HAVING A                
DEVIL OF A TIME EXTENDING INTO NORTHERN MICHIGAN...RATHER                       
PREFERRING TAKING A MORE SOUTHERN TRACK ACROSS SOUTHERN LOWER.  ONLY            
A FEW LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS EXIST FROM MANISTEE TO THE LEELANAU              
PENINSULA AT THIS HOUR.  FORECAST CONCERNS ARE MINIMAL FOR THIS TIME OF         
THE YEAR...AND CONSISTENT OF NUISANT LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWER                    
POTENTIAL FIRST...THEN SKY AND TEMPS SECOND OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.             
TODAY...CLOSED LOW OVER MN WILL SHEAR OUT AS IT MIGRATES TOWARDS THE            
SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES.  MID/UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE WILL ROTATE AROUND              
THE WEAK IOWA SHORTWAVE...PROGGED TO TRACK ACROSS NORTHERN                      
IL/IN/OH...AND SPREAD MID/HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS NORTHERN                           
MICHIGAN...THICKER AS YOU HEAD SOUTH.  HOWEVER...VERY DRY AIR                   
CENTERED AROUND 750MB WITH TRAJECTORIES ORIGINATING OUT OF NE                   
ONTARIO AND QUEBEC WILL KEEP THE AREA PRECIP FREE.  LAKE EFFECT WILL            
CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE TO REV UP ESPECIALLY WITH 850MB TEMPS                      
MODERATING FROM -15C TO -13C AND LOW LEVEL WIND FLOW DIMINISHING TO             
LESS THAN 10KTS BY THIS AFTERNOON.  THINK THAT ANY LIGHT SNOW SHOWER            
AND FLURRY ACTIVITY WILL BE CONFINED TO THE MORNING HOURS FROM THE              
MANISTEE TO GRAND TRAVERSE BAY CORRIDOR AND BE MOSTLY CONFINED TO               
THE LAKE SHORES. AS A RESULT...MOST LOCATIONS AWAY FROM THE                     
AFOREMENTIONED AREA WILL SEE PARTLY IF NOT MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES FOR               
MUCH OF THE DAY.  HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 20S LOOK FINE.                        
TONIGHT...SHEARED TROUGH AXIS WILL PASS ACROSS THE STATE AND                    
MID/UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE WILL THIN AS A RESULT.  DO NOT BELIEVE                 
THESE CLOUDS WILL HAVE MUCH OF AN IMPACT ON TEMPERATURES AND EXPECT             
ANOTHER EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL COOLING NIGHT IS IN STORE WITH SURFACE            
HIGH PRESSURE MAINTAINING ITS DOMINANCE ACROSS THE AREA.  ONLY                  
POSSIBLE PITFALL IS THAT LOW LEVEL WINDS INCREASE LATE AND SHALLOW              
INSTABILITY MAY BE ENOUGH FOR A COUPLE FLURRIES ALONG THE LAKE                  
MICHIGAN SHORELINE.  BUT THINK DRY AIR (850-700MB RH AROUND 10-20               
PCT) AND LAND BREEZE INTERACTION WILL BE ENOUGH TO THWART ANY FLURRY            
ACTIVITY. LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE AND BELOW ZERO.                       
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...SHORTWAVE RIDGING MOVES IN ON MONDAY WHILE            
THE BROAD SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS SOUTH OF THE GREAT LAKES.                
WEAK WARM ADVECTION WILL ENSUE...ENOUGH TO BUMP UP TEMPS INTO THE               
LOW 30S.  OUTSIDE OF SOME MORNING LAKE CLOUDS AND RESULTING DIURNAL             
CU (WHICH SHOULD MIX OUT BY EARLY AFTERNOON) AS WEST FLOW                       
STRENGTHENS...MOST AREAS WILL SEE MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES BY MID TO LATE             
AFTERNOON.  MID/UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE TOWARDS              
EVENING AS MOISTURE SPREADS IN AHEAD OF THE NEXT CLIPPER SHORTWAVE.             
ISENTROPIC ASCENT INCREASES AS WELL...BUT LIMITED MOISTURE BELOW                
700MB WILL PREVENT ANY PRECIP FROM REACHING THE GROUND.  WITH                   
STRENGTHENING SW FLOW AND INVASION OF WARMER AIR...LOWS WILL BE 15              
TO 20 DEGREES WARMER THAN SUNDAY NIGHT.                                         
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...APPROACHING CLIPPER SHORTWAVE PASSES                 
ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR AND NORTHERN LAKE HURON ON TUESDAY.  BEST QG               
FORCING WILL LIE AHEAD AND TO THE NORTH OF THE SHORTWAVE.  GFS IS AN            
OUTLIER IN THIS REGARD...AND BRINGS A WEAK ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW               
AND WIDE SWATH OF PRECIP ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER...WHILE OTHER LEADING            
MODELS KEEP PRECIP CHANCES NORTH OF THE STRAITS.                                
REGARDLESS...THERMAL PROFILES SUGGEST PRECIP WILL FALL AS ALL                   
SNOW...EVEN IN THE SOUTHERN GFS SOLUTION AND HAVE REMOVED RAIN                  
MENTION.  WILL KEEP LOW CHANCE POP ALL THE WAY TO M-55 HOWEVER...BUT            
WOULDNT BE SURPRISED IF PRECIP CHANCES ARE REMOVED ACROSS THE                   
SOUTHERN CWA.  SHORTWAVE RIDGING AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RETURN               
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.  A CHANCE OF PRECIP THEN ARRIVES                  
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.  HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 30S              
TO LOW 40S OVER THIS PERIOD.                                                    
MPC                                                                             
&&                                                                              
AVIATION.../ISSUED 1112 PM EST SAT MAR 8 2008/                                  
A QUIET 24 HOURS COMING UP WITH LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES. THE                
ONLY CLOUDS THAT WILL BE AROUND WILL BE SCT HIGH CLOUDS ABOVE                   
20000 FT OR SOME SCT LAKE CLOUDS AROUND 3500 FT. NO PRECIPITATION               
IS EXPECTED AT ANY OF THE TAF SITES DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.                   
LUTZ                                                                            
&&                                                                              
.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
MI...NONE.                                                                      
LM...NONE.                                                                      
LH...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</pre> mi                                                                       
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
1203 AM EST SUN MAR 9 2008                                                      
UPDATED FOR 06Z AVIATION                                                        
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS INDICATED A BROAD TROUGH OVER THE ERN               
CONUS WITH A MID LEVEL LOW OVER WV/OH ERN MANITOBA INTO NW MN. THIS             
LEFT UPPER MI BETWEEN THE TWO SYSTEMS WITH MID LEVEL AND SFC                    
RIDGING. VIS SATELLITE AND RADAR SHOWED THAT THE COMBINATION OF VERY            
DRY AIR UPSTREAM AND DAYTIME HEATING/MIXING HAD HELPED REDUCE                   
REMAINING ENE FLOW LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS TO ONLY A FEW FLURRIES              
VCNTY MARQUETTE. LIGHT SNOW ACROSS NW MN ASSOCIATED WITH THE MID                
LEVEL LOW AND SFC TROF SLIDING MAINLY TO THE SSE.                               
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT AND SUNDAY)                                              
EXPECT SOME INCREASE IN MID/UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE AS THE MID LEVEL               
LOW MOVES THROUGH MN. HOWEVER...SFC-700 MB MOISTURE WILL REMAIN                 
SCARCE. RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL NOT BE QUITE AS FAVORABLE AS LAST              
NIGHT BUT STILL SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO DROP OFF TO -5 TO -10F INLAND             
WITH READINGS 0 TO 10F NEAR THE LAKE SUPERIOR N CNTRL.                          
850 MB TEMPS NEAR -16C...INCREASING ENE 950 WIND INTO THE 10 TO 20              
KT RANGE ALONG WITH LAND BREEZE DEVELOPMENT SHOULD ALLOW LES TO                 
REGENERATE WITH SOME SCT -SHSN INTO N CNTRL UPPER MI.                           
HOWEVER...GIVEN THE VERY DRY LOW LEVEL AIR REMAINING AND GENERAL                
ACYC FLOW ANY ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE MINIMAL...UNDER AN INCH.                  
LES MAY AGAIN BE POSSIBLE...MAINLY IN THE MORNING N CNTRL IN AREAS              
FAVORED BY ENE FLOW. SOME INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ALONG WITH             
DIURNAL HEATING COULD LEAD TO A FEW FLURRIES IN ADDITION TO SCT-BKN             
SC INLAND. WITH NO ACCUMULATION EXPECTED...FCST DOES NOT INCLUDE                
POPS FOR NOW.                                                                   
.LONG TERM (SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY)...                              
RELATIVELY TRANQUIL FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD. ALONG WITH A PERSISTENT             
WARM UP...STILL APPEARS THAT TWO MAIN NORTHERN BRANCH ORIGIN TROUGHS            
WILL AFFECT THE AREA WITH CHANCES FOR MAINLY LIGHT PCPN. AFTER A DRY            
MONDAY WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING BACK TOWARD NORMAL...CLOUDS WILL BE            
ON THE INCREASE MONDAY NIGHT. TROUGH APPEARS TO NOT DIG ENOUGH TO               
THE SOUTHWEST TO BRING MUCH PCPN INTO UPR MI. BETTER CHANCES FOR                
PCPN RESIDE OVR LK SUPERIOR CLOSER TO THE TRACK OF THE SHORTWAVE.               
BASED ON TRENDS FM 1000-850MB THICKNESSES FM GFS/ECMWF SCALED BACK              
THE CHANCE OF ANY RAIN ON TUE. SOUNDINGS SHOW A VERY SHALLOW WARM               
LAYER NEAR SFC...ESPECIALLY WHERE NW WINDS DOWNSLOPE IN SOUTH CENTRAL           
CWA.                                                                            
GRADUAL HEIGHT RISES FIRST COUPLE DAYS OF THE WEEK ARE REPLACED BY              
MUCH MORE SIGNIFICANT HEIGHT RISES/WARM AIR ADVECTION ON WED. GFS               
NOW JOINS EARLIER RUNS OF ECMWF/UKMET/CANADIAN IN TRENDING MUCH                 
SHARPER WITH TROUGH DEVELOPING OVR NORTHERN PLAINS BY 00Z THU.                  
1000-500MB THICKNESSES ABOVE 540DAM...H9 TEMPS NEAR ZERO...AND                  
INCREASING SOUTH WINDS AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE TROUGH SUPPORT TEMPS               
INTO THE MID-UPR 30S.                                                           
TRICK TO FORECAST THEN ARRIVES WED NIGHT AS PCPN DRIVEN BY RIGHT                
ENTRANCE OF JET OVR ONTARIO AND ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL BE POISED TO               
CROSS THE REGION. GFS WARMER THAN ECMWF BUT ECMWF IS COOLER THAN 00Z            
RUN YDY. CONFIDENCE INCREASING THAT PCPN WILL OCCUR (LATEST ECMWF               
SHOWS QPF UP TO A HALF INCH 00Z THU THROUGH 00Z FRI)...BUT STILL                
UNCERTAINTY FOR EXPECTED PTYPE. EXPECT A MIX OF RAIN/SNOW...PERHAPS             
FOR THE ENTIRE TIME OR MAYBE AFTER A PERIOD OF SNOW INITIALLY ON WED            
NIGHT. IF TEMPS WARM AS EXPECTED ON WED...THEN NOT TOO CONCERNED                
WITH POTENTIAL FOR FREEZING RAIN AS IT WOULD NOT BE A CASE OF AN                
ELEVATED WARM LAYER JUST A RAIN OR SNOW QUESTION BASED ON THE                   
TEMPERATURE IN THE BLYR. TIMING AND EXACT PTYPE WILL LIKELY CHANGE              
BEFORE WED NIGHT AS MODELS HAVE NOT HONED IN ON EXACT IDEA QUITE                
YET.                                                                            
PCPN TAPERS OFF THU NIGHT ONCE TEMPS BECOME SUFFICIENTLY COLDER FOR             
JUST SNOW. TROUGH WITH MARGINALLY COLD AIR FOR DIURNAL AND/OR LK                
EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS REMAINS OVER THE GREAT LAKES FRIDAY INTO                    
SATURDAY. SO...AFTER A BRIEF WARMING TREND THE MIDDLE OF THIS                   
WEEK...TEMPS WILL RETURN TO NORMAL OR SLIGHTLY BLO NORMAL VALUES BY             
NEXT WEEKEND.                                                                   
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION (FOR THE 06Z TAF ISSUANCE)...                                         
LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL CONTINUE A WHILE LONGER AT KSAW OVERNIGHT WITH            
NE FLOW OFF THE LAKE. WITH DRY AIR ON SUN...THINK VFR CONDITIONS                
WILL CONTINUE...BUT HAVE TO WORRY ABOUT MVFR CIGS POSSIBLY COMING IN            
FROM THE LAKE WITH NE FLOW AND POSSIBLE UPSLOPE. WILL GO WITH THE               
DRY AIR WINNING OUT AND KEEPING IT VFR FOR NOW. MVFR CIGS WILL MOVE             
BACK INTO KCMX WITH EAST WIND LATE TONIGHT...THEN AS THE WIND                   
BECOMES LIGHT AND VAR LATE SUN...SHOULD GO BACK TO VFR.                         
&&                                                                              
.MARINE (FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)...                       
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT OVER EASTERN LAKE                    
SUPERIOR AS NORTHEAST WINDS INCREASE INTO THE 15 TO 25 KNOT RANGE IN            
A TIGHTENING GRADIENT BTWN HIGH PRESSURE OVER NORTHERN ONTARIO AND A            
TROUGH INTO LOWER MI. THE HIGH SHOULD SHIFT TO OUR SOUTH ON                     
MONDAY...MAKING WAY FOR A 29.8 INCH LOW OVER CENTRAL MANITOBA MONDAY            
NIGHT TO MOVE INTO NORTHERN ONTARIO TUESDAY. THE LOW WILL BRING                 
INCREASED WRLY WINDS...UP TO 30 KNOTS. HIGH PRESSURE OF 30.0 INCHES             
WILL BRIEFLY TAKE OVER TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...AS A 29.5 INCH             
LOW DEVELOPS OVER MANITOBA.                                                     
&&                                                                              
UPPER MICHIGAN...NONE.                                                          
LAKE SUPERIOR...                                                                
  HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH 8 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR LSZ267.              
LAKE MICHIGAN...NONE.                                                           
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM...JLB                                                       
LONG TERM...JLA                                                                 
AVIATION...GJM                                                                  
MARINE...JLB                                                                    
</pre> mi                                                                       
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT                                          
113 PM EDT SUN MAR 9 2008                                                       
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT BROUGHT THE WINTRY PRECIPITATION TO THE            
REGION WILL MOVE AWAY TO THE NORTHEAST TODAY. GUSTY SOUTHWEST TO                
WEST WINDS WILL BE QUITE STRONG THROUGH MIDDAY...ESPECIALLY IN THE              
CENTRAL ADIRONDACKS AND CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN VERMONT. LINGERING                 
SNOW SHOWERS IN THE MOUNTAINS WILL TAPER OFF TONIGHT.                           
TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL THROUGH MIDWEEK...THEN A WARMING              
TREND WILL MOVE TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL AT THE END OF THE WEEK.               
&&                                                                              
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...                                         
AS OF 929 AM EDT SUNDAY...THE NORTH COUNTRY REMAINS IN DEEP-LAYER               
CYCLONIC FLOW ON UPSTREAM SIDE OF DEPARTING LOW OVER NRN ME AT                  
1315Z. LATEST RUC ANALYSIS INDICATES BAND OF 45-55KT 850MB WINDS                
ACROSS OUR SRN ZONES...AND THIS SHOULD HELP CONTRIBUTE TO SOME WLY              
SFC WIND GUSTS OF 35-40 MPH IN THE ADVISORY AREA THROUGH LATE THIS              
MORNING. OVERALL GRADIENT WEAKENS THIS AFTERNOON...SO CURRENT PLAN              
IS TO DROP THE WIND ADVISORY ON TIME AT 15Z. BY 21Z...850MB FLOW                
BECOMES NWLY AND DECREASES TO 30-35 KTS. OTHERWISE...EXPECT A FEW               
SUNNY BREAKS TO DEVELOP...ESPECIALLY THIS AFTN. DOWNSLOPE FLOW                  
COMPONENT SHOULD ALSO FAVOR DIMINISHING CLOUDS EAST OF THE                      
ADIRONDACKS IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND EAST OF THE GREEN MTNS                  
TOWARD/WITHIN THE CONNECTICUT RIVER VALLEY.                                     
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...                              
AS OF 0412 AM EDT SUNDAY...RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE POKING                        
NORTHEAST OUT OF OHIO VALLEY INTO THE NORTHEAST WILL BRING FAIR                 
WEATHER FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEK. HOWEVER LOW HEIGHTS IN                  
THE EASTERN US WILL KEEP TEMPS BELOW NORMAL. LOW RH AIR OVER THE                
REGION...SO SOME SUN EXPECTED. HOWEVER WITH TROFINESS OVER                      
EASTERN US AND VICINITY OF JET...DON`T THINK IT WILL BE QUITE AS                
CLOUD FREE AS MOS WOULD LIKE. WENT A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER THAN                  
GUIDANCE MONDAY AND TUESDAY COUNTING ON SOME MORE SUNSHINE TO                   
WARM US UP.                                                                     
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...                                  
AS OF 0412 AM EDT SUNDAY...CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM TO DIVE DOWN IN                  
NORTHWEST FLOW LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. TEMPS COLD ENOUGH FOR               
SNOW...BUT WITH LESS MOISTURE TO WORK WITH ONLY CHC POPS.                       
SHORTWAVE RIDGING FOLLOWS...THEN A WARM FRONT THURSDAY FOLLOWED BY              
COLD FRONT ON FRIDAY. CHC POPS...WITH SOME RAIN MIXED IN ON                     
THURSDAY WITH WARMER TEMPS.                                                     
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...                                      
THROUGH 18Z MONDAY...MAINLY VFR/MVFR COND EXPECTED AT ALL FORECAST              
SITES THRU 00Z MON. KSLK MAY SEE SOME IFR -SW FROM 18Z-21Z THAT                 
MAY REDUCE VSBY TO LESS THAN 3SM AT TIMES. OTHERWISE...CEILINGS                 
THRU 00Z MON WILL VARY FROM VFR TO MVFR. AFT 00Z MON...MAINLY VFR               
COND FOR ALL SITES AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST...AND               
EVENTUALLY NEAR SCT BY 18Z MONDAY. SOME MVFR CEILINGS AT KSLK FROM              
00Z-04Z MON. WINDS CURRENTLY WNW 10-20KTS WITH SOME HIR                         
GUSTS...WILL BECM LIGHTER THRU FORECAST PERIOD TO 10KTS OR LESS BY              
00Z MON. HIR TRRN OBSCD AT TIMES.                                               
18Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVER THE                  
REGION MONDAY AND TUESDAY...AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS                  
INTO THE REGION FROM THE GREAT LAKES. A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE               
WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES TUESDAY NIGHT AND                      
WEDNESDAY...BRINGING A CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ALONG                 
WITH MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS. ANOTHER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL                   
BUILD EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BRINGING VFR                  
CONDITIONS TO THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.                          
&&                                                                              
.HYDROLOGY...                                                                   
AS OF 0412 AM EDT SUNDAY...WILL EXTEND FLOOD WATCH TO UNTIL THIS                
AFTERNOON. SMALLER TRIBS CRESTING ONLY NOW...AND OTTER CREEK AT                 
CENTER RUTLAND AND OTHER MAINSTEM RIVERS CONTINUE TO RISE.                      
SOUTHERN VERMONT RECEIVED 1.5 TO 2 INCHES ALL LIQUID OVER THE                   
PAST 24 HOURS...AND WATERWAYS RUNNING HIGH. IN ADDITION TO OPEN                 
WATER FLOOD POTENTIAL...THESE RISES HAVE RIVER ICE BREAKING UP AND              
MOVING ON CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN VT RIVERS. KNOWN ICE JAM ON THE MAD              
RIVER AT MORETOWN VT...AND VT HIGHWAY DEPT REPORTS A JAM MOVING                 
DOWN THE FIRST BRANCH OF THE WHITE RIVER ALONG ROUTE 110 IN THE                 
CHELSEA/TUNBRIDGE/SOUTH ROYALTON AREA.                                          
COLD AIR SPREADING OVER REGION IS A HELP BY FREEZING UP THE                     
RUNOFF...AND WILL ALLOW RIVERS TO BEGIN TO RECEDE. IN                           
EXTENDED...FORECAST LOOKS GOOD FOR END OF WEEK FOR SOME WELL                    
REGULATED SNOWMELT RUNOFF...40S IN THE DAY AND 20S AT NIGHT WILL                
HELP MELT SOME SNOW AND GET THE WATER INTO THE RIVERS IN AN                     
ORDERLY FASHION.                                                                
&&                                                                              
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
VT...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR VTZ009>012-018-              
     019.                                                                       
NY...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SYNOPSIS...HANSON                                                               
NEAR TERM...BANACOS                                                             
SHORT TERM...HANSON                                                             
LONG TERM...HANSON                                                              
AVIATION...WGH/JN                                                               
HYDROLOGY...BANACOS                                                             
</pre> ny                                                                       
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC                                             
950 AM EDT MON MAR 10 2008                                                      
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC AND SOUTHEAST STATES TODAY                  
WILL DRIFT OFF THE COAST THIS EVENING. A WEAK DRY COLD FRONT WILL               
CROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND INTO THE AREA FROM            
THE GULF STATES TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.                                          
&&                                                                              
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...                                                 
AS OF 950 AM MONDAY...                                                          
THIS AFTERNOON...WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SUGGEST SOME                       
STRENGTHENING OF PJ THAT EXTENDS SW TO NE FROM THE TN VALLEY TO OFF             
THE MID ATLANTIC COAST...AIDING IN SOME ENHANCEMENT OF CIRRUS ACROSS            
THE REGION. THIS IN RESPONSE TO THE NORTHERN STREAM IMPULSE...DIVING            
SE THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY...WHICH IS PROGGED TO MOVE THROUGH THE               
AREA OVERNIGHT. OTHERWISE...MOSTLY SKIES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE               
MAJORITY OF THE AFTERNOON...WITH AN INCREASE IN MID AND HIGH CLOUDS             
LATE IN THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING IN ADVANCE OF THE SHORTWAVE                 
TROUGH.                                                                         
WEAK LOW-LEVEL WAA WILL ENSUE THIS AFTERNOON AS LOW-LEVEL WIND                  
PROFILE VEERS AROUND TO SW. THICKNESSES THIS MORNING VERIFIED AT                
1320M THIS MORNING AT KGSO...VERY CLOSE TO THE NORMAL THICKNESS                 
(1324M)FOR THIS DATE...ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO AROUND 1335M.                
THIS WOULD YIELD A 5 TO 6 DEGREE INCREASE FROM SUNDAY`S HIGH                    
TEMPERATURES...SUPPORTING HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.                  
TONIGHT...                                                                      
ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE UPPER LEVEL LIFT IN THE FORM OF DPVA...AND               
SFC LIFT ASSOC/W A WEAK COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE (PRIMARILY BETWEEN                 
00-09Z TONIGHT)...THE LIFT WILL BE RATHER WEAK BECAUSE THE UPPER                
LEVEL WAVE WILL BE DE-AMPLIFYING AND THE SFC BOUNDARY ASSOC/W THE               
WEAK LOW MOVING EAST THROUGH THE DELMARVA WILL BRING ONLY                       
WEAK/SHALLOW LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE. ADDITIONALLY...WITH WESTERLY                
FLOW GENERALLY THROUGHOUT MOST OF THE COLUMN...THE ATMOSPHERE WILL              
BE RATHER DRY TONIGHT...WITH FCST PWAT VALUES OF 0.50" OR LESS. BOTH            
THE GFS/NAM KEEP ANY LIGHT MEASURABLE PRECIP ASSOC/W THIS SYSTEM                
WELL NORTH OF CENTRAL NC...AND ALONG THE FAVORABLE UPSLOPE AREAS                
ALONG/WEST OF THE RIDGELINE IN WV/VA. THEREFORE...ALTHOUGH WE WILL              
LIKELY SEE CLOUDY SKIES AT TIMES...WILL KEEP THE FORECAST DRY DUE TO            
THE ANEMIC AMOUNT OF MOISTURE/LIFT PROGGED. LOW TEMPS MAY BE A BIT              
TRICKY DEPENDING ON THE TIMING/EXTENT OF ANY CLOUD COVER...BUT A                
RANGE OF 35-41F SUGGESTED BY THE LATEST MOS GUIDANCE APPEARS                    
REASONABLE. -VINCENT                                                            
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...                                       
AS OF 245 AM MONDAY...                                                          
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT:                                                      
WNW/NW FLOW ALOFT WILL GENERALLY BE PRESENT IN THE UPPER LEVELS                 
BEHIND THE DEPARTING UPPER LEVEL WAVE DURING THE DAY TUESDAY. THERE             
MAY BE SOME VERY WEAK SFC AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING PERSISTING OVER             
THE CAROLINAS DURING THE DAY (LOOKS LIKE A PIECE OF ENERGY FROM THE             
UPPER LEVEL WAVE PASSING THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT BREAKS OFF AND                
LINGERS)...AND THE NAM IS A BIT MORE AGGRESSIVE IN SHOWING THIS THAN            
THE GFS. THE GFS PROGS PWAT VALUES AROUND 0.20" ON TUESDAY...WHILE              
THE NAME IS OVER TWICE AS MOIST WITH PWAT VALUES IN THE 0.45" RANGE.            
THE ONLY REAL DIFFERENCE THIS COULD MAKE IN THE FORECAST IS WITH                
TEMPS AND WHETHER OR NOT DIURNAL CU WILL DEVELOP DURING THE                     
AFTERNOON HOURS TUE. W/REGARDS TO TEMPS...THE NAM FCST SOUNDINGS ARE            
SHOWING DEEP MIXING ON TUE...UP TO 750MB...WHILE THE GFS FCST                   
SOUNDINGS ARE QUITE A BIT SHALLOWER...MIXING UP TO ONLY 850-900MB.              
THICKNESSES ARE PROGGED TO RANGE FROM 1315-1340 METERS 12Z TUE...               
INCREASING TO 1330-1350 METERS DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE GFS                    
THICKNESSES ARE COLDER THAN THE NAM BY 5-15 METERS. LOCAL TEMP                  
RESEARCH SUGGEST A RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S ON TUE                 
BASED ON THESE THICKNESSES. THE 850MB TEMPS OFF THE GFS/NAM VARY BY             
ABOUT 4C TUE AFTERNOON...WITH THE GFS BEING COLDER THAN THE                     
NAM...AND USING THE DRY-ADIABATIC METHOD...THIS RESULTS IN A 5-8F               
DIFFERENCE IN HIGH TEMPS (UPPER 50S VERSUS LOWER/MID 60S). MOS                  
GUIDANCE IS INDICATING HIGH TEMPS IN THE LOWER/MID 60S ON TUE.                  
BEARING ALL OF THIS IN MIND...WILL TRY TO BLEND THE RESULTS FROM                
THESE DIFFERENT METHODS AND MOS GUIDANCE...AND FORECAST A RANGE OF              
61-64F ACROSS THE AREA. OVERNIGHT...WITH CLEAR SKIES AND A                      
RELATIVELY DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE...RADIATIONAL COOLING SHOULD BE                 
CLOSE TO OPTIMAL...ALTHOUGH THE FCST MSLP GRADIENT SUGGESTS THERE               
MAY BE VERY LIGHT WINDS IN SOME LOCATIONS. LOW TEMPS IN THE MID 30S             
TO LOWER 40S LOOK REASONABLE...AND THIS IS WHAT MOS GUIDANCE IS                 
SUGGESTING.                                                                     
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT:                                                  
A WEAK SOUTHERN STREAM TROUGH IS PROGGED TO TRANSLATE EAST ALONG THE            
GULF COAST ON WEDNESDAY...WHILE AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER NEW                  
ENGLAND IS PROGGED TO LIFT ENE TOWARD NOVA SCOTIA. NORTH CAROLINA               
WILL REMAIN IN-BETWEEN THESE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEMS...AND BENIGN                   
WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE DAY WED...WITH MOSTLY                
SUNNY SKIES. ADDITIONALLY...WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDGING ALOFT IS PROGGED             
TO APPROACH THE STATE FROM THE WEST BY WED EVENING. THICKNESSES OFF             
THE GFS/NAM ON WED ARE VERY SIMILAR TO TUE...AND FCST SOUNDINGS OFF             
THE GFS/NAM ARE MUCH MORE IN-LINE WITH EACH OTHER THAN THEY ARE FOR             
TUE...BOTH SHOWING MIXING UP TO 850MB WITH 2-3C TEMPS AT THAT LEVEL.            
BASED ON THE THICKNESSES AND H85 TEMPS...WILL FORECAST MAX TEMPS A              
FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN TUE...RANGING FROM 63-67F...SLIGHTLY LOWER              
THAN MOS GUIDANCE IN MOST LOCATIONS. GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING NIGHT             
APPEARS ON TAP WED NIGHT...AND WILL FORECAST LOW TEMPS RANGING FROM             
THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S (COOLEST TEMPS IN RURAL AREAS).                        
THURSDAY:                                                                       
WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDGING ALOFT IS PROGGED BY THE 00Z GFS/12Z ECMWF                
(NEWEST ECMWF NOT IN YET) TO CROSS OVER THE STATE ON THU. THE ECMWF             
SHOWS A NARROW SFC RIDGE AXIS (WEAK/DRY CAD SIGNATURE) IN THE LEE OF            
THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS THU MORNING...ASSOC/W 1025MB HIGH PRESSURE            
IN QUEBEC. THE GFS IS WEAKER WITH THE SFC HIGH IN CANADA...AND SHOWS            
NO HINT OF A SFC RIDGE AXIS IN THE LEE OF THE MOUNTAINS THU MORNING.            
THIS DIFFERENCE COULD HAVE AN IMPACT ON HIGH TEMPS THU...ALTHOUGH               
EVEN IF THE 12Z 03/09 ECMWF IS ON TO SOMETHING...NO DIABATIC                    
ENHANCEMENT OF THE POTENTIAL WEDGE WOULD OCCUR...AND A VERY WEAK/DRY            
CAD SIGNAL WOULD NOT MAKE TOO MUCH OF A DIFFERENCE IN MAX TEMPS OVER            
CENTRAL NC ANYWAYS. BASED ON THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC PATTERN...MOSTLY              
SUNNY SKIES ARE EXPECTED ON THU (EXCEPT PERHAPS A FEW MID/UPPER                 
LEVEL CLOUDS MOVING INTO THE AREA FROM UPSTREAM). HIGH TEMPS ON THU             
LOOK TO BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN ON WED GIVEN THICKNESSES IN THE            
1340-1360 METER RANGE...AND WILL FORECAST ABOVE NORMAL HIGH TEMPS               
RANGING FROM 65-69F ACROSS THE AREA. -VINCENT                                   
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...                                   
AS OF 400 AM MONDAY...                                                          
A COUPLE OF WAVES IN RAPID SUCCESSION WITHIN FAST WESTERLY FLOW                 
APPROACH LATE IN THE WEEK AND APPEAR TO ORIGINATE IN A STRONG                   
PERTURBATION OVER THE NORTH PAC NOW BETWEEN 160-180W. THOUGH BOTH               
GFS AND ECMWF SHOW GENERALLY THE SAME TWO-WAVE PATTERN...                       
CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW FOR DETAILS ON THE TIMING AND IMPACT OF                  
THESE DISTURBANCES ON SENSIBLE WEATHER OVER CENTRAL NC THU NIGHT                
THROUGH SAT NIGHT.                                                              
FORECASTS WILL SHOW AN INCREASE IN CLOUDINESS THU NIGHT AND VARIABLY            
TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES FRI THROUGH SAT THEN DECREASING CLOUDINESS               
SAT NIGHT INTO SUN.  RAIN CHANCES WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 20-30                   
PERCENT RANGE FRI-SAT.  TEMPERATURES SHOULD AVERAGE CLOSE TO NORMAL             
WITH A SOMEWHAT NARROWED DIURNAL RANGE BECAUSE OF EXPECTED                      
CLOUDINESS.  -RFG                                                               
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION /11Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...                                        
AS OF 950 AM MONDAY...                                                          
CONFLUENT WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AND A COUPLE OF DRY COLD FRONTS                   
LEADING DRY CONTINENTAL AIR THROUGH CENTRAL NC SHOULD MAINTAIN                  
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THU NIGHT. A STRONGER SOUTHERN STREAM WAVE               
AND ASSOCIATED TRANSIENT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MAY LOWER CIGS AND                 
VSBY TO MVFR OR IFR WITH AREAS OF RAIN FRI. -RFG                                
&&                                                                              
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
NONE.                                                                           
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SYNOPSIS...CBL/VINCENT                                                          
NEAR TERM...VINCENT                                                             
SHORT TERM...VINCENT                                                            
LONG TERM...RFG                                                                 
AVIATION...RFG                                                                  
</pre> nc                                                                       
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV                                          
938 PM EDT MON MAR 10 2008                                                      
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS TUESDAY...FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER COLD FRONT                  
TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS FRONT RETURNS AS A WARM FRONT WEDNESDAY                     
NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY A YET ANOTHER COLD FRONT EARLY FRIDAY. ANOTHER              
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ARRIVES FROM THE SOUTHWEST AND MOVES ON THROUGH             
THIS WEEKEND.                                                                   
&&                                                                              
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...                                      
STRONG H5 WAVE EXITING THE MTNS AS OF 1Z.  IT GENERATED A SWATH OF              
LGT RA E OF THE OH RVR THAT TRACKED INTO THE MTNS.  QPF HAS RANGED              
FM A HUNDREDTH AT HTS TO FIVE HUNDREDTHS IN THE CNTRL MTNS.  OVERALL            
LIKE THE RUC13 IDEA OF PCPN EXITING BY 230Z WITH LEFTOVER RW--/SW--             
IN THE NRN MTNS UNTIL MDNGT.  TROF AXIS IS NEAR THE OHIO RIVER ATT              
BRINGING A REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR AND STRATOCU.  SKY FCST IS              
TOUGH OVERNIGHT WITH NUMEROUS BREAKS UPSTREAM IN THE BUCKEYE                    
STATE...NOT TO MENTION CI RACING E/NE FM THE LWR MS RVR VLY.                    
TWEAKED SKY GRIDS TO REFLECT A LONGER PD OF BKN-OVC CKB-EKN VCNTY               
WHILE LEAVING THE REST UNCHANGED.                                               
FOG IS CONCERN AS WELL JUST BY TAKING A LOOK OUT THE FRONT DOOR                 
AND HILLTOP REPORTING STATIONS.  VIS SHOULD BE HIGH ENOUGH TO                   
PRECLUDE MENTION IN THE ZNS GIVEN LWR DWPTS ADVECTING FM THE NW                 
COUPLED WITH STRATOCU FLOATING ARND MOST OF THE NGT.  BEST SHOT                 
STANDS TO BE THE SRN COAL FLDS AND MTNS WHERE HIGHEST QPF VALUES                
WERE OBSERVED THIS EVNG.                                                        
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...                          
WHILE THE MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION WILL BE LIMITED THROUGH THE                
PERIOD...THERE ARE SEVERAL WEAK FRONTS THAT WILL BE MOVING ACROSS               
THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BUT AT THIS POINT NOT              
EXPECTING ANY MORE THAN LIGHT SPRINKLES OR FLURRIES.                            
ON TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES INTO THE AREA.  HAVE HELD THE                 
CLOUDS IN THE MOUNTAINS THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON AS THE UPSLOPE FLOW             
LINGERS.  BUT THE TEMPERATURES DO NOT GET COLD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT ICE            
CRYSTAL GROWTH SO FOR NOW HAVE JUST GONE DRY...BUT SOME                         
DRIZZLE/FREEZING DRIZZLE COULD LINGER THROUGH THE MORNING IN THE                
NORTHERN MOUNTAINS.  FOR TEMPERATURES...HAVE LEANED A LITTLE COOLER             
TOWARD THE MET NUMBERS IN THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS OTHERWISE GENERALLY            
RAN JUST UNDER THE MAV.                                                         
FOR TUESDAY NIGHT...SEE A WEAK FRONT SLIDING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST.             
THE MOISTURE LOOKS VERY LIMITED AND WITH THE TRACK OF THE SHORTWAVE             
GOING NORTH OF THE AREA AND THE JET ENERGY SLIDING NW TO SE JUST                
NORTH OF THE REGION...SEEING TOO MANY FACTORS AGAINST PCPN.  SO FOR             
NOW...HAVE LEFT POPS OUT ONLY MENTIONING SOME SPRINKLES OR FLURRIES             
ACROSS THE NORTH.  LIKED THE WARMER TEMPERATURES OF THE MAV.                    
HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS ON WEDNESDAY...AS THE FRONT STALL JUST SOUTH              
OF THE AREA.  IT THEN RETURNS NORTH ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BUT AGAIN              
WITH THE FLOW AT 850 OUT OF THE WEST THE MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED.              
AND THE MAIN DYNAMICS ARE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND WILL BE LIFTING            
NORTH SO EXPECT TO SEE LITTLE MORE THAN CLOUDS WITH THE WARM FRONT.             
FOR TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AGAIN LEANED                
TOWARD THE MAV NUMBERS.                                                         
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...                                   
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THU NT AND FRI.  MODELS ARE RATHER                     
INCONSISTENT WITH THIS FEATURE EXCEPT THAT IT IS DISORGANIZED.  WENT            
CLOSER TO FASTER GFS THAN HPC...WHICH SORT OF BLENDS THIS EVENT WITH            
THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE WEEKEND.  KEPT WEATHER DRY TO START            
THU FOLLOWED BY AN INCREASING CHANCE FOR SHOWERS THU AFTERNOON AND              
NT.  AS THE FRONT LIMPS E AND WEAKENS...DECREASE POPS FRI TRYING TO             
DEPICT SOME SEMBLANCE OF A BREAK BETWEEN IT AND THE NEXT SYSTEM.                
DID ROLL WITH HPC WITH THIS SYSTEM WHICH MOVES THROUGH SAT AND SAT              
NT.  TRACK IS UNCERTAIN AS GFS TRACKS IT JUST N OF THE AREA.  HPC               
THOUGHT THIS WAS TOO AMPLIFIED A SOLUTION FOR THE FLAT SOUTHERN                 
STREAM FLOW AND WENT CLOSER TO SOUTHERN TRACK OF ECMWF AND                      
ENSEMBLES.  EVEN WITH A SOUTHERN TRACK...TEMPERATURES WILL BE                   
MARGINAL AT BEST FOR SNOW AS NORTHERN STREAM IS NOT AS MUCH OF A                
FACTOR AS HAS BEEN THE CASE.  THEREFORE WENT MAINLY WET WITH THIS               
SYSTEM.  TRIMMED HPC NEAR CAT POPS WITH THIS SYSTEM GIVEN LONG LEAD             
TIME AND UNCERTAINTY ON TRACK AND EVEN THE TIMING.                              
THERE MAY BE SNOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE SYSTEM AS IT EXITS SUN.               
DRY WEATHER THEN ENSURES SUN NT INTO MON...WITH NEXT SYSTEM                     
APPROACHING EARLY NEXT.  AREA SHOULD BE IN RATHER MILD...STRONG S TO            
SW FLOW AHEAD OF THAT SYSTEM WHICH WILL TRACK WELL W OF THE AREA.               
RAISED HIGHS ANOTHER COUPLE OF DEGREES IN THE WARM SECTOR FLOW ON               
THU.  LOWERED LOWS THU NT JUST A BIT...STILL ABOVE THE MEX.  FOR                
DAYS 4 THROUGH 7 FOLLOWED HPC WITH MINOR ADJUSTMENTS...MAINLY FOR               
ELEVATION.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION /02Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...                                     
LGT RA ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPR LVL DISTURBANCE MOVES THRU THE MTNS               
THEN NEXT HR OR SO.  AS IT CROSSES...FLIGHT CATEGORIES WILL FALL TO             
MVFR.  POST FRONTAL TROF AXIS SWEEPS THRU IN THE BY 3Z DROPPING CIGS            
TO MVFR THRU 6Z W AND 9Z MTNS.  CAN NOT RULE OUT VIS RESTRICTIONS IN            
RIVER FG DURING THE PREDAWN...BUT FOR NOW LEFT IT GIVEN AMOUNT OF               
CLDS PREDICTED.  MVFR STRATOCU LINGERS IN THE W/NW FLOW TUES ACR                
CKB/EKN BEFORE LIFTING TO VFR IN THE AFTN.  CAVU IS FCST ELSW.                  
AVIATION OUTLOOK /AFTER 0Z WED/ NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED.                
&&                                                                              
.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
WV...NONE.                                                                      
OH...NONE.                                                                      
KY...NONE.                                                                      
VA...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SYNOPSIS...TRM/29/ESS                                                           
NEAR TERM...29                                                                  
SHORT TERM...ESS                                                                
LONG TERM...TRM                                                                 
AVIATION...29                                                                   
</pre> oh                                                                       
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX                                          
651 PM CDT MON MAR 10 2008                                                      
.UPDATE...                                                                      
MAIN UPDATE TO GOING FCST WAS TO INSERT AREAS OF FOG OVER THE                   
CONCHO VALLEY, HEARTLAND, AND NORTHWEST HILL COUNTRY LATE TONIGHT               
AND EARLY TUESDAY. SURFACE WINDS ARE VEERING TO THE EAST LATE THIS              
AFTERNOON AND WILL BECOME LIGHT SOUTHEASTERLY TONIGHT. THIS WILL                
GRADUALLY BRING BACK THE BETTER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE OVER SOUTHERN                
AND EASTERN TEXAS. THIS...COMBINED WITH RADIATIONAL COOLING FROM                
THE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED TONIGHT WILL RESULT IN FOG AND/OR               
LOW STRATUS DEVELOPMENT...MAINLY OVER THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN                  
PORTIONS OF THE FCST AREA. RUC MODEL SOUNDINGS AT KSJT AND KJCT                 
AT 09Z TUE SUGGEST FAVORABLE HYDROLAPSES WITHIN THE LOWEST 10 TO                
20 MB OF THE SOUNDING TO SUPPORT DENSE FOG IN SOME SPOTS. WILL                  
HAVE TO MONITOR LATER TONIGHT TO SEE IF AN ADVISORY WILL BE                     
NEEDED.                                                                         
LACY                                                                            
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 631 PM CDT MON MAR 10 2008/                         
AVIATION...                                                                     
MAIN ISSUES THIS TAF PACKAGE WILL BE POSSIBLE LOW CLOUDS AND                    
SOMEWHAT LOWER VISIBILITIES LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY MORNING ACROSS              
SRN HALF OF AREA...IE SOA/SJT/JCT/BBD TAFS. WITH LIGHTER WINDS AND              
SOME RETURN FLOW COULD SEE SOME INSTANCES. MUCH MORE WIND EXPECTED              
BY MID TO LATTER PORTION OF THE WEEK WITH BETTER SRLY FLOW.                     
11/KEISER                                                                       
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 316 PM CDT MON MAR 10 2008/                          
SHORT TERM...                                                                   
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER WC TEXAS MOVING EAST THIS AFTERNOON...                  
WITH CLEARING SKIES. ANY CUMULUS THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD QUICKLY                  
DISSIPATE IN THE EARLY EVENING. WINDS WILL ALSO DECOUPLE THIS                   
EVENING...BECOMING LIGHT AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERS OVER                  
WEST CENTRAL TEXAS EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. WENT A FEW DEGREES BELOW              
GUIDANCE WITH GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING TONIGHT.                                 
LONG TERM...                                                                    
UPPER LOW SEEN IN THE WATER VAPOR LOOP OVER COLORADO WILL MOVE                  
ACROSS WC TEXAS TUESDAY. MAIN EFFECT WILL BE SCATTERED MID/HIGH                 
CLOUDS. MAY SEE SOME VIRGA...BUT DRY LOWER ATMOSPHERE EVAPORATE                 
ANY MID LEVEL SHOWERS.                                                          
DRY THIS WEEK...WITH ELEVATED FIRE DANGER WEDNESDAY THROUGH                     
FRIDAY. SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS IN THE PANHANDLE WEDNESDAY...WITH DRY              
PACIFIC FRONT THURSDAY. FRIDAY HAS THE MOST POTENTIAL FOR WILDFIRE              
DANGER...AS A SURFACE LOW MOVES FROM THE PANHANDLE MOVE SOUTHEAST               
ALONG THE RED RIVER DURING THE DAY FRIDAY. TOO EARLY TO TELL HOW                
MUCH WIND. GFS MODEL CENTERS THE SURFACE LOW NEAR HASKELL...WHICH               
WOULD KEEP WINDS LIGHT ACROSS MUCH OF THE BIG COUNTRY (BUT STRONG               
IN THE CONCHO VALLEY). IF FARTHER NORTH LIKE ON THE ECMWF                       
MODEL...TOWARD THE RED RIVER/SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA...DRY WEST WINDS                 
MIGHT BE SIGNIFICANTLY STRONGER IN THE 25-35 MPH RANGE ACROSS THE               
BIG COUNTRY. TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 80S WOULD JUST ENHANCE THE               
FIRE DANGER. WENT MORE TOWARD THE STRONGER WINDS IN THIS ZONE                   
PACKAGE.                                                                        
OTHERWISE LONG WAVE UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES TEXAS EARLY NEXT                    
WEEK. ECMWF SIMILAR TO GFS...BUT JUST A HINT FASTER. BASICALLY                  
JUST LEFT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY INTO                          
MONDAY...WHICH WAS ALREADY IN THE FORECAST.                                     
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
ABILENE  41  68  49  76 /   0  10   0   0                                       
SAN ANGELO  41  67  43  75 /   0   0   0   0                                    
JUNCTION  41  71  43  74 /   0  10   0  10                                      
&&                                                                              
.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
NONE.                                                                           
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</pre> tx                                                                       
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX                                             
1014 PM CDT SUN MAR 9 2008                                                      
.UPDATE...                                                                      
CONVECTIVE COMPLEX ASSOCIATED WITH LEAD SHRTWV HAS MOVED EAST OF                
AREA WITH STRONGEST CONVECTION VCNTY STALLED FRONT STRETCHING FROM              
SOUTH OF MIDLAND TO NEAR WICHITA FALLS INTO SOUTH CENTRAL OK. THIS              
ACTIVITY SUPPORTED BY SOUTHERLY LLJ AS SEEN ON VWP/PROFILER                     
NETWORK ACROSS WEST CENTRAL AND CENTRAL TX. TRAILING LOBE OF                    
ENERGY WEST OF EL PASO WILL ROTATE ACROSS BIG BEND OVERNIGHT                    
KEEPING FOCUS FOR ASCENT ACROSS THE TRANS PECOS INTO THE CONCHO                 
VALLEY AND HILL COUNTRY. LOCALLY...OUTFLOW FROM CONVECTION HAS                  
PUSHED HIGHER DEWPOINT AIR WESTWARD INTO SOUTHEAST CORNER. MODELS               
BRING THIS MOISTURE WESTWARD ALONG SOUTHERN EDGE OF CAPROCK BY                  
MORNING DESPITE BEING OPPOSED BY MORE NORTHERLY SURFACE WINDS. AS               
PRESSURES FALL ALONG THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES IN RESPONSE TO NEXT                 
SHRTWV DIVING QUICKLY SOUTHWARD ON MON...SOME OF THIS MOISTURE                  
COULD BE PULLED NORTHWARD ACROSS THE SOUTH PLAINS. EXPECT LITTLE                
AFFECT ON LATER PERIODS OF FORECAST SO HAVE UPDATED NIGHTTIME                   
PERIOD TO REDUCE POPS ACROSS SE CORNER AND BRING SLIGHTLY HIGHER                
DEWPOINTS/WARMER OVERNIGHT LOWS ACROSS SMALL SECTION WHERE                      
MOISTURE HAS INCREASED.                                                         
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
LIKELHOOD OF MVFR CIGS AT KLBB CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE DESIPITE PERSISTENT      
DRYING IN NORTHERLY SURFACE FLOW ON THE CAPROCK. SOME LOW LEVEL                 
MOISTURE HAS BEEN ENRICHED COURTESY OF OUTFLOW FROM CONVECTIVE                  
COMPLEXT ACROSS BIG COUNTRY. SHORT TERM MODELS NAM/RUC BRING                    
MOISTURE WESTWARD OVERNIGHT AT 850 MB ON CONTINUED E/NE WINDS IN                
VERY WEAK UPGLIDE. ANY LOW CLOUD FORMATION SHOULD BE SHORT LIVED                
AND SCATTERED AND WITH THAT CURRENTLY IN TAF WILL LEAVE IT FOR 06Z              
ISSUANCE.                                                                       
&&                                                                              
.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
NONE.                                                                           
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
24                                                                              
</pre> tx                                                                       
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPOKANE WA                                             
1112 AM PDT SUN MAR 9 2008                                                      
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE INLAND NORTHWEST TODAY. A PACIFIC                
STORM SYSTEM WILL PASS THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY               
WITH WARMER YET WETTER CONDITIONS. A RIDGE WILL RETURN BY WEDNESDAY             
...ALTHOUGH A MOIST WESTERLY FLOW WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION BY THE              
END OF THE WORK WEEK.                                                           
&&                                                                              
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
REST OF TODAY...HIGH PRESSURE IS SITUATED AT THE SFC (CENTERED                  
OVER IDAHO/GREAT BASIN AREA). COUPLED WITH A MOIST BL (UP TO ABOUT              
900 MB)...A LIGHT SE FLOW AT THE SFC AND WEAK WAA AT 850 HELPING                
TO MAINTAIN AN INVERSION....THIS SET-UP LED TO THE DEVELOPMENT                  
STRATUS AND FOG (LOCALLY DENSE) A LITTLE PAST MIDNIGHT ACROSS                   
PORTIONS OF THE SPOKANE/C`DA AREA AND SOME NRN VALLEYS...AS WELL                
AS ACROSS THE L-C AREA. THE MOIST LAYER IS ABOUT 400-500 FEET                   
DEEP. THE NAM AND RUC MODEL SOUNDINGS (WHICH INITIALIZED WELL                   
COMPARED TO THE 12Z SOUNDING) INDICATE THE INVERSION BREAKING                   
TOWARD 18Z AND BETTER MIXING TO BREAK UP THIS FOG/STRATUS. SOME OF              
THE DEEPER VALLEYS MAY TAKE UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON TO COMPLETELY                  
LIFT OUT THE STRATUS. HOWEVER MID TO HIGH CLOUDS ARE STREAMING IN               
ALOFT. ON LARGER A SCALE...A LONG-WAVE TROUGH IN THE GULF OF AK                 
HAS THE PACIFIC NW IN A WSW FLOW. A STREAM OF MOISTURE AND A                    
COUPLE SHORT-WAVE SYSTEMS ARE PIVOTING AROUND THAT FEATURE. ONE                 
SHORT-WAVE IS SLIPPING INTO BC. MID AND HIGH MOISTURE AND                       
ASSOCIATED CLOUDS ARE SPREADING IN FROM THE WEST WITH THIS                      
FEATURE. MOST OF THE SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE                    
SHORT-WAVE REMAINS NORTH OF THE CANADIAN BORDER. AN ELONGATED/WEAK              
VORT MAX WAS PASSING EAST OF THE CASCADES AND A SECOND WEAK VORT                
MAX ONTO THE WA COAST TOWARD 00Z. THIS COMES WITH SOME DEEPENING                
ON MOISTURE INTO THE CASCADES AND SOME ISENTROPIC ASCENT AS A WARM              
FRONT STARTS TO LIFT NORTH. THIS WILL MEAN A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR                  
SHOWERS NEAR THE CASCADES LATE. OTHERWISE THE REST OF TODAY WILL                
BE DRY. TEMPERATURES ARE RUNNING BELOW GUIDANCE AND FORECAST.                   
VALUES WERE CUT BACK 2-3 DEGREES /J                                             
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
FOG/STRATUS WILL LIFT TO MAINLY VFR/LCL MVFR CIGS SUNDAY AFTERNOON.             
THE NEXT SYSTEM MOVING IN TONIGHT AND MONDAY WILL BRING IN                      
MID/HIGH CLOUDS...GRADUALLY LOWERING BY LATE AM TO MIDDAY MONDAY.               
HOWEVER...PRIMARILY VFR CONDITIONS FCST TO 18Z. RISK FOR LIGHT                  
PRECIP WILL BEGIN TO SPREAD IN FROM THE WEST AFTER 12-15Z...WITH                
LCL MVFR CIGS WITH PRECIP. /J                                                   
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
SPOKANE        49  37  53  42  46  29 /   0   0  20  80  40  20                 
COEUR D`ALENE  46  35  53  42  46  29 /  10   0  20  80  60  30                 
PULLMAN        52  38  56  44  48  31 /   0   0  10  80  50  20                 
LEWISTON       57  40  63  47  54  35 /   0   0  10  80  50  10                 
COLVILLE       50  34  50  39  46  28 /   0  10  40  70  40  20                 
SANDPOINT      47  33  49  40  46  29 /  10  10  30  80  60  40                 
KELLOGG        46  34  55  41  47  30 /  10   0  20  90  60  50                 
MOSES LAKE     56  39  55  41  55  31 /   0   0  30  40  10  10                 
WENATCHEE      52  39  52  42  55  33 /   0  10  30  40  10  10                 
OMAK           51  34  50  38  53  26 /   0  20  50  50  10  10                 
&&                                                                              
.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
ID...NONE.                                                                      
WA...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</pre> wa                                                                       
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI                                           
252 PM CDT SUN MAR 9 2008                                                       
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT                                   
FORECAST CONCERNS ARE ON SNOW CHANCES TONIGHT AS WELL AS CLOUD                  
TRENDS...THEN TEMPERATURES THROUGH WEDNESDAY.                                   
18Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE NEAR KDBQ                
WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT SOUTH INTO NORTHERN MISSOURI. MEANWHILE A            
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE STRETCHES FROM THE LOW NORTHWEST ACROSS THE              
FORECAST AREA AND INTO SOUTHERN MINNESOTA. THIS TROUGH HAS BEEN THE             
FOCUS FOR VERY LIGHT SNOW AND FLURRIES ACROSS THE AREA TODAY.                   
09.12Z SHORT RANGE MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE PERIOD. GFS             
CONTINUES TO HAVE MORE MOISTURE AND RESULTANT QPF ON TUESDAY AS A               
SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS NORTHERN MINNESOTA/WISCONSIN INTO THE            
GREAT LAKES. IT IS THE ONLY ONE WITH QPF INTO THE AREA AND                      
THUS DISCOUNTING THIS SOLUTION.                                                 
IN THE NEAR TERM...BOTH THE GFS/NAM AS WELL AS THE RUC SHOWING VERY             
WEAK QG CONVERGENCE THIS EVENING ALONG THE TROUGH ACROSS NORTHEAST              
IOWA AND SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN. ALL THE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW VERY              
LIGHT QPF IN THIS REGION. HOWEVER...WITH LATEST RADAR TRENDS HAVE               
BACKED OFF TO JUST FLURRIES THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. NEXT                     
QUESTION IS CLOUDS. SATELLITE TRENDS SHOWING QUITE A FEW HOLES IN               
THE CLOUDS OVERHEAD WITH CLEARING SKIES ALREADY TAKING PLACE ACROSS             
THE NORTHERN ZONES.. MODEL RELATIVE HUMIDITY TRENDS SHOW A SLOW                 
DECREASE IN THE CLOUDS OVERNIGHT AS THE TROUGH SAGS SOUTHWARD.                  
HIGH PRESSURE THEN DOMINATES THE WEATHER MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT                
WITH QUIET WEATHER EXPECTED. A SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS NORTHERN                  
MINNESOTA AND NORTHERN WISCONSIN TUESDAY...BUT MOISTURE VERY                    
LIMITED SO ANY PRECIPITATION WILL REMAIN WELL NORTH OF THE AREA. AS             
THE HIGH SLIDES SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA WARM ADVECTION WILL BEGIN...              
DRAWING WARMER AIR BACK INTO THE REGION FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.              
850MB TEMPERATURES WARM TO THE PLUS SIDE OF ZERO AND WITH A DECENT              
AMOUNT OF SUN WILL SEE TEMPERATURES REBOUND BACK TO NEAR OR                     
SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS FOR BOTH TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.                 
GUIDANCE VALUES SHOWING ALL AREAS TO RISE INTO THE 40S BOTH DAYS.               
WITH THE CLEAR SKIES OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL DROP BACK BELOW THE                    
FREEZING MARK SO MELTING TEMPERATURES TO BE CONFINED TO DAYTIME                 
HOURS.                                                                          
.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY                                            
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH THE OVERALL PATTERN                
THROUGH THIS PERIOD. NORTHWEST FLOW TO DOMINATE THROUGH SATURDAY                
BEFORE LARGE TROUGH PUSHES INTO THE WESTERN CONUS...BUCKLING THE                
FLOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS. ENSEMBLES AND DETERMINISTIC 09.06Z               
GFS AND 09.00Z ECMWF SHOW SHORTWAVE ADVANCING ALONG THE CANADIAN                
BORDER ON THURSDAY...DRAGGING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES...            
WHICH WILL USHER IN ANOTHER SHOT OF COOLER AIR FOR THE WEEKEND.                 
THERMAL PROFILES INDICATE SOME WARMER AIR BEING ADVECTED INTO THE               
AREA THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT AND WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION RAIN              
OR SNOW CHANCES...ALBEIT ANY PRECIPITATION THAT FALLS LOOKS TO BE IN            
THE LIGHT SIDE.                                                                 
RABERDING                                                                       
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
AN INVERTED TROUGH CONTINUES TO RESIDE ACROSS SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA...            
NORTHEAST IOWA...AND THE SOUTHERN HALF OF WISCONSIN. THIS TROUGH WAS            
PRODUCING A SCATTERED TO BROKEN MVFR DECK /1500 TO 2500 FEET/ AND               
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WHICH REDUCED VISIBILITIES TO 3 MILES IN                 
A FEW PLACES. THE 09.12Z MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THAT THIS TROUGH               
WILL MOVE SLOWLY SOUTHEAST OUT OF THE AREA ON MONDAY MORNING. AS                
THIS OCCURS...THE FLOW WILL GRADUALLY BECOME ANTICYCLONIC AND THE               
CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY BREAK UP. AT THIS TIME...IT LOOKS LIKE THIS               
SHOULD OCCUR BETWEEN 10Z AND 14Z MONDAY. HOWEVER...I AM A BIT                   
CONCERNED THAT THIS MAY BECOME SOONER...BECAUSE THERE ARE SOME HOLES            
IN THE CLOUDS. ONCE THESE CLOUDS BREAK UP...WE SHOULD VFR CONDITIONS            
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF MONDAY.                                                
BOYNE                                                                           
&&                                                                              
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
WI...NONE.                                                                      
MN...NONE.                                                                      
IA...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</pre> wi                                                                       
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA                                      
530 AM EDT TUE MAR 11 2008                                                      
.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...                                         
LATEST SURFACE MAP SHOWS A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY ACROSS THE MIDDLE              
OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING. BACK TO THE WEST...A SHARP UPPER             
SHORTWAVE OVER EAST TX IS DRIVING AN AREA OF MID LEVEL CLOUDS AND               
LIGHT RAIN...CURRENTLY OVER LA/MS...EASTWARD. THE GFS BRINGS AMPLE              
CLOUDS AND LIGHT MEASURABLE PRECIP OVER THE AREA TODAY...WHILE THE              
NAM SHOWS A RELATIVELY DRY EVENT WITH MUCH WARMER HIGHS. HAVE LEANED            
TOWARD THE WETTER AND COOLER GFS SOLUTION...BUT HELD POPS DOWN TO               
ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE. THE DISTURBANCE AND ASSOCIATED CLOUDS/RAIN                
PUSH EAST OF THE AREA BY EARLY EVENING...WITH WEAK RIDGING THEN                 
DOMINATING THE REST OF THE SHORT TERM. AFTER TODAY...MAV AND MET                
NUMBERS ARE CLOSE AND LOOK REASONABLE SO DID NOT STRAY FAR.                     
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...                                   
THE GFS...DGEX AND UKMO ARE IN MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT WITH TIMING AND            
STRENGTH OF NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM PROGD TO TRAVERSE THE AREA ON                   
SATURDAY. THE ECMWF LOOKS WAY TOO FAST. WILL LEAN TOWARD THE GFS                
SOLUTION WHICH SHOWS A SHARP SHORTWAVE DRIVING A SURFACE LOW AND                
ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE TN AND OHIO VALLEYS ON                   
SATURDAY. A WARM/MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW OUT AHEAD WILL WARRANT A                  
CHANCE OF SHOWERS ON FRIDAY...BUT THE GREATER RAIN CHANCES WILL BE              
ON SATURDAY WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. MAIN CONCERN IS THE INCREASE              
IN INSTABILITIES ON SATURDAY...NOW SHOWING 1000-1500 CAPES AND -4 TO            
-7 LI`S ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA BY 18Z SATURDAY. THIS                   
COUPLED WITH A 50KT LOW LEVEL JET WILL WARRANT MENTION OF SCATTERED             
THUNDERSTORMS ON SATURDAY...AND A FEW COULD BE STRONG. EXPECT THE               
STRONGER STORMS TO BE NORTH OF THE AREA...WHERE THE UPPER SHORTWAVE             
AND SURFACE LOW TRACK. HOWEVER...A FEW STRONG AND POSSIBLY SEVERE               
STORMS CANNOT BE RULED OUT...ESPECIALLY SATURDAY AFTERNOON JUST                 
AHEAD OF THE FRONT. AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS THE GREATER STORM                 
THREAT WOULD BE GENERALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF A COLUMBUS TO                      
MILLEDGEVILLE LINE ON SATURDAY. THE COLD FRONT SWEEPS THRU LATE                 
SATURDAY WITH DIMINISHING RAIN CHANCES DURING THE EVENING...EXCEPT              
SOME PATCHY WRAP AROUND LIGHT RAIN IN THE MOUNTAINS SATURDAY                    
NIGHT-SUNDAY MORNING. APPEARS TEMPS WONT BE COLD ENOUGH TO BRING ANY            
WINTRY THREAT TO THE MOUNTAINS...BUT WILL WATCH THIS CLOSELY.                   
OTHERWISE...A COOL DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE AREA FOR              
SUNDAY AND MONDAY.                                                              
&&                                                                              
.FIRE WEATHER...                                                                
A DRY AIRMASS SETTLES IN OVER THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY...WITH                    
AFTERNOON RH VALUES DIPPING AT OR BELOW THE CRITICAL 25% OVER MAINLY            
THE EAST CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.             
WITH SOME UNCERTAINTY ABOUT THE 4 HOUR DURATION AND FUEL MOISTURES...           
WILL LET DAY SHIFT TAKE A LOOK AT THE NEXT MODEL RUN AND POST A                 
WATCH FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON IF CONDITIONS WARRANT. STAY TUNED.                
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
VFR EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AT THE FFC TAF SITES AGAIN TODAY. TWO WEAK              
UPPER TROUGHS...ONE IN THE NORTHERN STREAM MOVING ESE FROM THE OHIO             
VALLEY TOWARD THE MID-ATLANTIC...AND ANOTHER IN THE SOUTHERN STREAM             
MOVING EASTWARD FROM TX...WILL MINIMALLY IMPACT THE REGION TODAY IN             
THE FORM OF MID CLOUDS. A WEAK FRONT WILL FOLLOW THE UPPER SHORT                
WAVE OVERNIGHT.                                                                 
CEILINGS...AREA OF MID CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SOUTHERN STREAM               
SHORT WAVE WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. SYSTEM IS FAST                    
MOVING...SO EFFECTS SHOULD CONFINED PRIMARILY TO THE 12Z-00Z PERIOD.            
EXPECT BKN-OVC CIGS MAINLY IN THE 070-090 RANGE. SOME SCT050                    
POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON. SKC SHOULD QUICKLY RETURN AFT 00Z TO ALL             
TAF SITES AS MEAN RH DROPS TO 20 PERCENT OR LESS.                               
VISIBILITY...RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS NOT AS OPTIMAL AS THE               
PAST TWO MORNINGS WITH INCREASED MID CLOUD COVER. ALL SITES STILL               
VFR AT 09Z. STILL...THOUGH...CANNOT RULE OUT BRIEF MVFR                         
BR...ESPECIALLY FOR MCN-AHN...WHERE MID CLOUDS NOT QUITE AS THICK               
YET AND T/TD SPREAD THREE DEGREES OR LESS. OTHERWISE...VFR...WITH               
POTENTIAL FOR MVFR BR WED MORNING TOO UNCERTAIN TO PROG THIS FAR IN             
ADVANCE.                                                                        
WX...CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW SPRINKLES...ESPECIALLY IN THE CSG-MCN                
AREA...BUT ANY PCPN WILL FALL FROM MID CLOUDS AND NOT EXPECTED TO               
IMPACT VSBY OR CIGS.                                                            
WIND...AS WITH THE PAST TWO MORNINGS...VERY WEAK WIND FIELD NOTED               
ACROSS THE AREA. WEAK SFC TROUGH DRAPED ACROSS THE AREA FROM NE-SW              
RIGHT OVER THE ATL AREA...RESULTING IN MOSTLY CALM WINDS. VAD                   
PROFILE SHOWS SSE FLOW JUST OFF THE SFC...WHICH GFS AND RUC BOTH                
HINT AT FOR THE FIRST COUPLE OF HOURS OF TAF VALID PERIOD. AS THE               
DAY PROGRESSES...SFC TROUGH SHIFTS EAST AND HIGH PRESSURE BEINGS TO             
BUILD SE FROM THE MIDWEST. EXPECT A WEST FLOW TO RESUME. CALM OR                
VRB03KT WILL GIVE WAY TO 280-320 5-7KT BY AFTERNOON.                            
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
ATHENS          64  37  72  40  75 /  20   5   5   5  10                        
ATLANTA         62  39  67  45  73 /  20   5   5   5  10                        
BLAIRSVILLE     57  29  65  36  68 /  20   5   5   5  10                        
CARTERSVILLE    60  33  67  36  72 /  20   5   5   5  10                        
COLUMBUS        63  38  71  41  75 /  20   5   5   5  10                        
GAINESVILLE     62  38  69  44  70 /  20   5   5   5  10                        
MACON           64  36  71  38  76 /  20   5   5   5  10                        
ROME            61  34  71  40  77 /  20   5   5   5  10                        
PEACHTREE CITY  63  34  69  36  74 /  20   5   5   5  10                        
VIDALIA         69  40  71  39  74 /  20  10   5   5   5                        
&&                                                                              
.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
NONE.                                                                           
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
39/19                                                                           
</pre> ga                                                                       
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA                                       
423 AM EDT TUE MAR 11 2008                                                      
CORRECTED TO FIX TYPO                                                           
.SHORT TERM (TODAY AND TONIGHT)...                                              
SFC HIGH IN CONTROL OF THE REGION THIS MORNING...CENTERED JUST                  
EAST OF STL AS OF THIS WRITING. NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH TROUGH                
AXIS NEAR OR ACROSS THE EASTERN COASTLINE. SKIES BEGAN TO CLEAR                 
OVERNIGHT ALLOWING FOR DECENT RAD COOLING FOR MOST OF THE                       
REGION...AND IN COMBO WITH LIGHT WINDS AND AMPLE LOW LEVEL                      
MOISTURE HAVE CREATED STRONG CONDITIONS FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT EARLY               
THIS MORNING. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR ANY SIGNIFICANT DROPS                
IN VSBY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE                    
FORECAST AREA. THE LATEST RUC 13 RUN WOULD SUGGEST THAT VSBYS                   
WOULD NEAR DENSE FOG CRITERIA BY 10Z...WILL WATCH THE CLEARING OF               
THE CLOUDS...TIMING...AND VSBY DROPS AFTERWARD TO SEE IF A DENSE                
FOG ADVISORY WILL BE NEEDED LATER THIS MORNING.                                 
GFS APPEARS TO HAVE WAY TOO MUCH MOISTURE WITH THE FAST MOVING                  
CLIPPER-LIKE SYSTEM THAT DRIVES THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES THIS                    
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. THE DRIER NAM MOISTURE FIELDS SEEM A BETTER              
FIT AS THE SYSTEM HAS NO WAY TO TAP THE GULF. EXPECT NEAR FULL SUN              
FOR THIS MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTN...MOST IF NOT ALL OF THE                   
REMAINING SNOWPACK SHOULD BE RELEASED IN THE NEXT 24HRS. THE                    
SNOWPACK HAD LITTLE AFFECT ON TEMPS TODAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER               
40S WHERE SNOW LIES...WITH THE INCREASING SUN ANGLE HAVE NOT                    
ACCOUNTED FOR THE OLDER SNOWFIELD COOLING AS MUCH AS NORMALLY WOULD.            
MOS EQUATIONS MAY STILL BE USING WINTER SCHEME...AND WOULD NOT                  
ACCOUNT FOR THE STRONGER MID MARCH SUN ANGLE AS WELL...ANOTHER                  
REASON TO GO ABV MOS IN THE SOUTHEAST...THE SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL                
HELP IN THIS MATTER AS WELL WITH MID 40S OR HIGHER ACROSS MUCH OF               
THE FORECAST AREA.                                                              
MID AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM MOVING TO THE             
NORTH AND EAST OF THE REGION IN THE EVENING. WEAK SFC TROUGH                    
PUSHING THROUGH AFTER MIDNIGHT...WITH JUST A  WIND SHIFT TO THE                 
NORTH. EVEN WITH THE NORTH WINDS IN THE EARLY MORN...LOWS WILL BE               
NEAR NORMAL IN THE UPPER 20S.                                                   
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)...                                        
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO MODERATE INTO THURSDAY AS SOUTH TO                
SOUTHWEST WINDS INCREASE AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING SURFACE LOW AND                
FRONT. HIGHS SHOULD BE ABLE TO REACH NEAR 50F WITH LOW LEVEL FLOW               
40 TO 50 KNOTS. KEPT A CHANCE FOR RAIN LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT                     
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. THE FRONT SHOULD REACH THE AREA EARLY                   
THURSDAY...AND THEN A WAVE SHOULD DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT OVER                  
MISSOURI AND MOVE EAST THURSDAY NIGHT. OVERALL THE GFS HAS BACKED               
OFF BRINGING MUCH COLDER AIR BEHIND THE FRONT THURSDAY NIGHT IN                 
LIEU OF THE WAVE ALONG THE FRONT. THEREFORE...ADDED A MIX OF RAIN               
AND SNOW LATE THURSDAY NIGHT. THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES CLOSE TO A                 
RAIN AND SNOW MIX. PLACED HIGHER RAIN/SNOW CHANCES OVER SOUTHEAST               
AREAS WHERE BEST FRONTAL LIFT WILL OCCUR...SO BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN              
BASICALLY MARION TO LIMA. A SECOND LOW SHOULD MOVE EAST NORTHEAST               
ALONG THE FRONT SATURDAY. THE BIG CHALLENGE HERE IS HOW FAR NORTH               
THE PRECIPITATION WILL SPREAD. RAISED SNOW CHANCES TO 50 PERCENT                
IN THE SOUTH...WITH 25 TO 30 PERCENT IN THE NORTH. A LARGE                      
ANTICYCLONE OVER SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA SHOULD HELP WITH DRY AIR                  
ENTRAINMENT AS A COLD AND DRY NORTHEAST FETCH SETS UP OVER THE                  
GREAT LAKES.                                                                    
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 140 AM EDT TUE MAR 11 2008/                         
AVIATION (06Z TAFS)...                                                          
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION...WITH KAOH AND KBEH THE                
ONLY SITES WITH MVFR OR IFR CONDITIONS. WITH CLEARING                           
SKIES...AMPLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...AND LIGHT WINDS FOG WILL START               
TO DEVELOP REGION WIDE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. MVFR TO IFR                       
CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE...AND AT BOTH MAIN TERMINAL SITES FWA               
AND SBN AFTER 08Z THRU DAYBREAK(14Z). WINDS WILL START TO INCREASE              
FROM THE WSW LATE MORNING...WITH GUSTS ABV 15KTS. WINDS WILL AGAIN              
LESSEN WITH HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS OVERTAKING THE REGION THIS EVENING.               
&&                                                                              
.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
IN...NONE.                                                                      
MI...NONE.                                                                      
OH...NONE.                                                                      
LM...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHORT TERM...SCHOTT                                                             
LONG TERM...SKIPPER                                                             
AVIATION...SCHOTT                                                               
</pre> in                                                                       
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY                                             
352 AM CDT TUE MAR 11 2008                                                      
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
ALTHOUGH THERE WILL STILL BE SOME LATITUDINAL VARIATION/A.K.A                   
PLAY/ THE IN THE NUMERICAL MODEL DEPICTION OF THE EVENTUAL                      
BAROCLINIC ZONE ACROSS THE WFO PAH FORECAST AREA ON THURSDAY AND                
BEYOND...THE 00Z TUESDAY RUNS OF THE 12KM NAM/40KM GFS WERE QUITE               
SIMILAR IN THE DEVELOPMENT AND LOCATION OF A SURFACE LOW/WARM                   
FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN THE AREA LATER THIS WEEK.                                   
HOWEVER...INITIALLY...THE RUC...THEN THE GFS APPEARED TO HAVE THE               
BEST HANDLE ON HEIGHT FIELDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORTWAVE                      
RIPPLES OVER CO/OK THIS EVENING. THE LIFT AHEAD OF THE LEAD SHORTWAVE           
OVER OK HELPED TO PRODUCE THE CIRRUS SHIELD OVER THE WFO PAH                    
FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT AND WAS DEPICTED WELL BY THE RUC...AND TO               
A MUCH LESSER EXTENT BY THE SREF/NAM/GFS.                                       
IN THE SHORT TERM...THE SHORTWAVES SHOULD SHEAR OUT AS THEY MOVE                
OVER THE WFO PAH FORECAST AREA...BUT HAVE LITTLE IMPACT ON THE                  
SENSIBLE WEATHER EXCEPT TO BRIEFLY ENHANCE THE S/SWLY SURFACE WIND              
SPEEDS TODAY.                                                                   
A LOW AMPLITUDE RIDGE WILL BRIEFLY MOVE IN TONIGHT...THEN BECOME                
DAMPENED ON WEDNESDAY...AS THE NEXT SHORTWAVE FROM THE WEST COAST               
RIDES OVER THE RIDGE. SIGNIFICANT WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL WORK                  
INTO THE AREA BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...PRODUCING ABOVE NORMAL                   
TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S ACROSS THE WFO PAH FORECAST AREA.                       
BOTH THE NAM AND GFS DEVELOP A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER MO                
LATE WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A MORE DOMINANT AREA OF LOW                     
PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER WESTERN OK EARLY THURSDAY...WITH A WEAK                  
SURFACE TROUGH/WARM FRONT DEVELOPING TO THE NORTHEAST TOWARD THE                
LESSER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER NRN IL/NWRN IN. THE NAM AND GFS                
DIFFER IN THE STRENGTH AND PERSISTENCE OF THE NORTHERN IL LOW                   
PRESSURE CENTER...BUT THE MAIN FACTOR INFLUENCING THE WEATHER OVER              
THE WFO PAH FORECAST AREA IS THE WARM FRONTAL ZONE WHICH DEVELOPS               
OVER SRN MO/W CNTRL IL EARLY THURSDAY. WITH MOISTURE ADVECTION                  
FROM TX/WRN GULFMEX...MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AND DIFFERENTIAL                     
HEATING ALONG THIS BOUNDARY WILL SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF                     
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE WFO PAH FORECAST AREA ON                   
THURSDAY.                                                                       
THE LATEST RUNS OF THE GFS/NAM HAVE BEEN MORE GENEROUS THAN                     
PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS WITH INSTABILITY IN THE 850-500 MB LAYER                    
ACROSS THE BOUNDARY...SUPPORTING A GREATER MENTION OF                           
THUNDERSTORMS THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST. HOWEVER...THE GRADIENT OF               
INSTABILITY WILL BE FAIRLY TIGHT...RESTRICTED CLOSE TO THE                      
SURFACE-850 MB FRONTAL BOUNDARY. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY IN THE                   
POSITION OF THIS BOUNDARY FURTHER INTO THE FORECAST...I ADDED A                 
25-50NM BUFFER ZONE TO ALLOW FOR A SLIGHTLY LARGER COVERAGE OF                  
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IN TIME AND SPACE THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT.            
THE BAROCLINIC ZONE ACROSS THE WFO PAH FORECAST AREA REMAIN QUITE               
ACTIVE FROM THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...SO A PERIODIC MENTION OF                  
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY REMAINS WARRANTED.                             
NO CHANGES/MODIFICATIONS WERE MADE BEYOND SATURDAY NIGHT WITH THIS PACKAGE.     
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING OVER THE AREA FROM THE NORTH HAS                 
CREATED CALM OR NEAR CALM WINDS EARLY THIS MORNING. WITH ONLY SOME              
THINNING CIRRUS IN THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA...SCATTERED MVFR               
FOG WILL BE LIKELY THROUGH 14Z THIS MORNING...WITH THE GREATEST                 
COVERAGE IN THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA.                                      
A SOUTHWEST WIND LESS THAN 10 KTS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE ENTIRE                  
REGION BY MIDDAY...AND PERSIST THROUGH TONIGHT. SKIES WILL                      
REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR TODAY AND TONIGHT. SOME SCATTERED MID AND HIGH              
CLOUDS MAY FLIRT WITH THE KEVV AND KOWB AREAS TONIGHT...AS A CLIPPER            
SYSTEM DIVES SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES TOWARD THE                       
MID-ATLANTIC COAST.                                                             
&&                                                                              
.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
KY...NONE.                                                                      
MO...NONE.                                                                      
IL...NONE.                                                                      
IN...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHORT/LONG TERM...SMITH                                                         
AVIATION...DRS                                                                  
</pre> ky                                                                       
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI                                             
342 AM EDT TUE MAR 11 2008                                                      
.DISCUSSION...LARGE SCALE PATTERN LOOKING PROGRESSIVE THIS WEEK                 
WITH A BROAD 4-5 WAVE HEMISPHERIC PATTERN.  REMNANTS OF A COUPLE                
PACIFIC ORIGIN SHORT WAVE TROUGHS WILL SWING THROUGH THE WESTERN                
GREAT LAKES OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...ONE TODAY COMING OUT OF                
MANITOBA THIS MORNING...AND A SECOND WAVE COMING ONSHORE THIS                   
MORNING LOOKS TO IMPACT THE AREA IN THE THURSDAY TIME FRAME.  BEYOND            
THAT PATTERN BECOMES BASICALLY SPLIT/ZONAL FOR THE WEEKEND...SOME               
HINTS AT A -NAO TYPE PATTERN DEVELOPING WITH RISING HEIGHTS ACROSS              
ICELAND/GREENLAND...BUT PROBABLY IN NAME ONLY AS THE TYPICAL                    
RESPONSE OVER NORTH AMERICA (E.G., COLD FOR US) DOES NOT APPEAR TO              
BE IN THE CARDS WITH POLAR VORTEX BOTTLED UP ABOVE 60N...AND A                  
POSSIBLE RE-APPEARANCE OF THE SOUTHEAST U.S. RIDGE AS HEIGHTS FALL              
ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN STATES. A PROBABLE SET UP FOR MORE                      
COMPLICATED FORECAST ISSUES NEXT WEEK.                                          
IN THE MEANTIME...HIGH PRESSURE SINKING SOUTH OF THE STATE THIS                 
MORNING...WITH HEIGHT FALLS ASSOCIATED WITH MANITOBA SHORT WAVE/JET             
STREAK DIVING TOWARD THE WESTERN LAKES.  SURFACE PRESSURES FALLING              
IN RESPONSE TO THIS (3-4MB/3H PRESSURE FALLS ACROSS WESTERN                     
ONTARIO/NORTHERN MN)....ALLOWING ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW OVER EASTERN            
MANITOBA TO DROP SOUTHEAST TOWARD LAKE SUPERIOR.  SURFACE LOW                   
FORECAST TO SLIDE ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR TODAY...WHILE MAIN SHORT WAVE            
ENERGY COMES RIGHT ACROSS THE LOWER PENINSULA.  SO FIRST FORECAST               
PROBLEM THIS MORNING WILL DEAL WITH PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL WITH                
THIS SYSTEM.  DEEP LAYER RIDGING BUILDS INTO THE WESTERN LAKES FOR              
WEDNESDAY...THEN NEXT SERIES OF HEIGHT FALLS ARRIVES WEDNESDAY                  
NIGHT/THURSDAY...WHICH IS FORECAST PROBLEM NUMBER TWO.                          
TODAY/TONIGHT...HIGH CLOUDS INVADING NORTHERN MI EARLY THIS MORNING             
FROM THE NORTHWEST AHEAD OF APPROACHING SHORT WAVE TROUGH.  CLOUD               
TOPS HAVE BEEN COOLING/EXPANDING ACROSS MN AND WESTERN ONTARIO...AND            
STARTING TO GET INCREASING MOISTURE IN 900-500MB LAYER PER GOES                 
SOUNDER WATER VAPOR IMAGERY.  BUT MUCH OF THAT MOISTURE LIKELY ABOVE            
700MB WITH JUST A HANDFUL OF OBSERVATIONS OF CLOUDS BELOW 12K FEET              
THROUGH 06Z (MOSTLY ACROSS ONTARIO).  A FEW HIGH BASED RADAR RETURNS            
HEADED INTO LAKE SUPERIOR PER ONTARIO RADAR COMPOSITE...BUT NO                  
PRECIPITATION AT THE ONSET OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.  FORECAST PROBLEM            
OF THE DAY IS TIMING OF INCREASED SATURATION AS STRONGER DYNAMICS               
COME INTO PLAY (GOOD QG FORCING AND LFQ JET DYNAMICS).  LIFT IS NOT             
THE PROBLEM...THE QUESTION WILL IT BE ENOUGH TO MOISTEN WHAT IS                 
ADMITTEDLY A RELATIVELY DRY ANTECEDENT AIR MASS.  GUIDANCE IS STILL             
SPLIT ON THIS ISSUE...WITH THE NAM REMAINING DRY (SHUNTING BEST DEEP            
LAYER MOISTURE QUICKLY EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING)...AND            
THE GFS SHOWING BETTER MOISTENING WITH TIME AS STRONGER FORCING                 
ARRIVES.  ECMWF/UKMET/RUC THROWING SUPPORT TOWARD THE GFS...AND AS              
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS UPSTREAM WAVE TAKING ON A BETTER ORGANIZED            
(LESS SHEARED) APPEARANCE...GETTING COLDER CLOUD TOPS NOW DEVELOPING            
IN THE VICINITY OF LAKE WINNIPEG.  GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE FORCING            
HAVE TO BELIEVE THAT DEEP LAYER RH WILL IMPROVE THROUGH THE DAY TO              
SUPPORT A THREAT OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA...            
THOUGH SEE NO NEED TO CHANGE OUR POP DISTRIBUTION WHICH HAS BEEN                
CONSISTENTLY HIGHER TO THE NORTH. NOT EXPECTING PRECIP CHANCES                  
ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER UNTIL THE AFTERNOON. LAPSE RATES EXPECTED TO              
BE FAIRLY STEEP ABOVE 750MB...SUPPORTING THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME                
ELEVATED CONVECTIVE/SHOWERY ELEMENTS DEVELOPING. PRECIP TYPE WILL               
DEPEND ON DEPTH OF SURFACE BASED WARM LAYER...NAM TRYING TO SHOVE               
A PRETTY DECENT THERMAL RIDGE INTO THE FORECAST AREA LATER TODAY                
(925MB TEMPERATURES 4-6C WARMER THAN GFS)...THIS LOOKS OVERDONE                 
BASED ON INITIALIZATION AND 05Z AIRCRAFT SOUNDING OUT OF MPX WHICH              
INDICATED A 925MB TEMP OF +2C WHEN THE NAM HAD +5C PROGGED AT 06Z.              
SURFACE TEMPERATURES SHOULD WARM IN TO THE MID 30S AT LEAST...CURRENT           
FORECAST IS ALL SNOW EVERYWHERE AND THINK THAT`S THE WAY TO GO AT               
THIS TIME. WILL CONTINUE WITH THE IDEA OF SNOW SHOWERS TAPERING                 
OFF FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE EVENING HOURS.                                 
WEDNESDAY...RIDGING AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT BUILD IN WEDNESDAY IN              
THE WAKE OF TODAY`S SYSTEM.  SHOULD BE A NICE DAY WITH TEMPERATURES             
NEAR OR A BIT COOLER THAN TODAY (THE LATTER BEING ESPECIALLY TRUE               
THE FARTHER NORTH YOU GO).  NEXT SYSTEM TO IMPACT THE REGION ARRIVES            
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS A SHORT WAVE TROUGH CROSSES THE NORTHERN PLAINS              
AND INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES THURSDAY MORNING.  THIS WILL                   
INCREASE THE THREAT FOR SNOW FROM WEST TO EAST.  SOME QUESTION ABOUT            
PRECIP TYPE BUT THIS FAR OUT WILL KEEP IT SIMPLE (AND ALL SNOW).                
MARINE ISSUES...WILL CARRY SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES TODAY THROUGH THIS            
EVENING ON THE LAKE MICHIGAN SIDE...AND THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ON           
LAKE HURON.  NO HEADLINES ANTICIPATED BEYOND TONIGHT.                           
EARLY EXTENDED PERIODS (THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...GUIDANCE HAS               
BEEN PRETTY CONSISTENT IN SHOVING A DRY SLOT ACROSS THE FORECAST                
AREA THURSDAY...THE IMPLICATION BEING THAT THE THREAT FOR PRECIP                
SHOULD WIND DOWN DURING THE MORNING WHICH THE CURRENT FORECAST                  
ACCOUNTS FOR.  THIS LOOKS LIKE IT CONTINUES INTO THURSDAY NIGHT/                
FRIDAY...SO WILL EXTEND THIS DRY PERIOD ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER INTO              
THOSE PERIODS AS WELL.  DRY SATURDAY FORECAST STILL LOOKS FINE AT               
THIS POINT AS A SOUTHERN BRANCH SHORT WAVE ZIPS ACROSS THE OHIO                 
VALLEY.                                                                         
JPB                                                                             
&&                                                                              
.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
MI...NONE.                                                                      
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LMZ341-342-          
     344>346.                                                                   
LH...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LHZ345.              
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 11 PM EDT THIS             
     EVENING FOR LHZ346>349.                                                    
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</pre> mi                                                                       
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
130 AM EDT TUE MAR 11 2008                                                      
UPDATED FOR AVIATION DISCUSSION                                                 
.UPDATE...                                                                      
DRY AIRMASS EXISTS ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE UPPER GREAT              
LAKES...AS NOTED BY 00Z SOUNDINGS FROM INL...BIS...MPX AND GRB. EVEN            
INTO SOUTHERN MANITOBA...THE AIRMASS IS DRY...WITH THE PAS SOUNDING             
SHOWING DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS OF 5C OR MORE THROUGHOUT THE                       
TROPOSPHERE. THIS DRY AIRMASS IS LOCATED ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF A                 
1009MB LOW CURRENTLY MOVING FROM LAKE WINNIPEG INTO NW ONTARIO.                 
NORTH OF THE SFC LOW IN THE COLDER AIR...11-3.9U IMAGERY DEPICTS                
PLENTY OF LOW CLOUDS...WITH SOME FLURRIES BEING REPORTED AT A FEW               
SITES. WARM FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW EXTENDS SOUTH TO NEAR                 
FARGO. DESPITE ISENTROPIC LIFT ACROSS THIS FRONT ON WESTERLY                    
WINDS...ALONG WITH A FAIRLY POTENT SHRTW ON WATER VAPOR DROPPING                
DOWN INTO CENTRAL MANITOBA...THE DRY AIRMASS HAS RESTRICTED ANY                 
CLOUD DEVELOPMENT TO JUST A FEW MID CLOUDS. HIGH CLOUDS ARE                     
PRESENT...BUT THESE ARE MAINLY ASSOCIATED WITH MOISTURE COMING FROM             
THE PACIFIC THROUGH THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW AS SEEN ON WATER VAPOR.                
21Z/00Z RUC AND 18Z/00Z NAM SEEM TO BE HANDLING THE MOISTURE                    
AVAILABILITY WITH THIS SYSTEM DROPPING TOWARDS THE CWA TONIGHT AND              
TOMORROW BETTER THAN THE 12Z/18Z GFS...AND BOTH SUGGEST MAINLY A                
MID/HIGH CLOUD SCENARIO. PERHAPS THERE IS AN OPPORTUNITY TOMORROW               
MORNING OVER THE EASTERN CWA TO GENERATE SOME PCPN WITH A LONGER                
TIME FRAME FOR ISENTROPIC LIFT AND DYNAMICAL FORCING. HOWEVER...THE             
REST OF TONIGHT LOOKS DRY ACROSS ALL OF THE CWA. LOWERED POPS OVER              
THE WESTERN CWA TOMORROW MORNING...BUT STILL MAINTAINED THEM FOR THE            
AFTERNOON AS THE AREA OF LOW CLOUDS NORTH OF THE LOW DROPS SOUTH.               
NO OTHER CHANGES MADE TO THE FORECAST.                                          
&&                                                                              
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS INDICATED NW MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW INTO              
THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES BTWN A TROF OVER ERN CANADA AND A RIDGE OVER            
WRN NOAM. THE MAIN UPSTREAM FEATURE WAS...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING             
FROM NORTHERN ALBERTA INTO SASKATCHEWAN. AT THE SFC...WRLY FLOW WAS             
INCREASING BTWN HIGH PRES OVER IA/KS/MO AND A TROUGH/FRONT OVER NRN             
ONTARIO. WITH THE VERY DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE...THE WAA PATTERN INTO              
UPPER MI WAS ONLY BRINGING AN INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUDS.                          
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT AND TUESDAY)...                                            
ALTHOUGH RADIATIONAL COOLING MAY ALLOW TEMPS TO FALL OFF THIS                   
EVENING...INCREASING WINDS AND HIGH CLOUDS OVERNIGHT MAY RESULT IN              
STEADY OR SLOWLY RISING TEMPS FROM MIN VALUES IN THE UPPER TEENS.               
DOWNSLOPE WSW WINDS WILL ALSO KEEP TEMPS UP OVER PORTIONS OF WEST               
AND N CNTRL UPPER MI.                                                           
TUE...MODERATE TO STRONG 700-500 MB QVECTOR CONV ALONG WITH FAIRLY              
STEEP 700-500 MB LAPSE RATES(AROUND 7 TO 7.5 C/KM) SHOULD BE ENOUGH             
TO SUPPORT SOME LIGHT SNOW FROM NRN LAKE SUPERIOR INTO THE NE CWA               
IN SPITE OF THE ANTECEDENT DRY AIR. SO...THE FCST LEANED A BIT MORE             
TOWARD THE GFS AND CANADIAN REGIONAL GEM WITH LIKELY POPS NE AND                
CHANCE N CNTRL COMPARED TO THE NAM WHICH DOES NOT PRODUCE ANY PCPN              
OVER UPPER MI. ANY PCPN SHOULD TAPER OFF IN THE AFTERNOON. MODEL                
SOUNDINGS AND LOW LEVEL WET-BULB ZERO VALUES WOULD KEEP PCPN AS                 
SNOW. QPF VALUES SUGGEST ANY SNOWFALL WILL BE LESS THAN INCH.                   
.LONG TERM (TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT MONDAY)...                               
NW WINDS ON BACK SIDE OF LOW ALONG WITH H85 TEMPS NEAR -10C GOOD                
ENOUGH FOR CHANCE POPS EARLY TUE NIGHT OVR FAR EAST CWA.                        
OTHERWISE...EXPECT CLEARING SKIES WITH TEMPORARY RIDGING. PWAT MIN              
MOVING THROUGH SUGGESTS SOME RADIATIONAL COOLING CAN TAKE PLACE.                
WENT BLO GUIDANCE FOR MIN TEMPS.                                                
INCREASING CLOUDS BY MIDDAY WED THEN MIXED PRECIPITATION STILL ON               
TRACK FOR LATE WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING. GFS/ECMWF/CANADIAN             
IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT IN TRACKING A NORTHERN STREAM WAVE (A PIECE              
OF ENERGY EMERGING FM THE STRONGER SHORTWAVE NOW OFFSHORE OF BRITISH            
COLUMBIA) AND SFC LOW JUST NORTH OF LK SUPERIOR ON THU. DESPITE FACT            
THAT GFS SHOWS H3 JET STREAKING INTO GREAT LAKES ON WED NIGHT AND               
THE ECMWF NOT HAVING ANY SUCH FEATURE...MAJORITY OF PCPN THAT OCCURS            
WED NIGHT IS TIED TO LIFTING ALONG ADVANCING SFC TROUGH AND                     
ISENTROPIC LIFT ON THE 280-290K SFCS. GFS/ECMWF SHOW MUCH BETTER                
AGREEMENT ON THESE FEATURES ALONG WITH RESULTING QPF. HAVE INCREASED            
POPS TO LIKELY. PTYPE ALSO SEEMING TO COME INTO SOME AGREEMENT.                 
DEPENDING ON HOW QUICKLY PCPN ARRIVES ON WED POTENTIAL FOR RAIN/SNOW            
MIX EXISTS INTO EARLY WED EVENING DUE TO RESIDUAL WARM AIR NEAR SFC.            
1000-850MB THICKNESSES AND 2M TEMPS FM ECMWF/GFS SUGGEST ANY MIXED              
RAIN/SNOW WOULD CHANGE TO SNOW BY 06Z THU. COULD SEE UP TO 2 INCHES             
OF SNOW WITH THE SYSTEM ON WED NIGHT.                                           
IN WAKE OF THE SFC TROUGH...DRY AIR SHOULD LIMIT PCPN CHANCES THU.              
ECMWF/GFS/CANADIAN ALL SHOW A MINIMUM IN QPF IN THE 12 HR PERIOD                
ENDING AT 00Z FRI. PACIFIC AIR PUSHING IN BEHIND THE TROUGH ALLOWS              
TEMPS TO WARM INTO THE 30S. SO...IF ANY PCPN DOES OCCUR IT WOULD                
LIKELY BE IN FORM OF A RAIN/SNOW MIX OR STRICTLY RAIN.                          
PREFERRED LESS AMPLIFIED/WARMER ECMWF/CANADIAN COMPARED TO GFS INTO             
THE WEEKEND. 12Z GFS IS COMING AROUND TO LESS TROUGHING OVR THE                 
WESTERN GREAT LAKES. H9-H85 TEMPS LOOK MARGINAL FOR LK EFFECT BUT               
WITH A NORTH WIND AND WEAK CYCLONIC FLOW LINGERING NEED TO KEEP SOME            
POPS NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR FRI INTO SAT. LK EFFECT ENDS BY SUNDAY AS               
WINDS BECOME SE WITH SFC RIDGE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA.                          
GFS/ECMWF CONSISTENT ON DEVELOPING SIGNIFICANT STORM SYSTEM OVR                 
NATIONS MID SECTION BY NEXT MONDAY. ECMWF HAS LATCHED ONTO THIS                 
SOLUTION AND BEEN FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH IT FOR THE LAST FEW DAYS.              
DETAILS SHOULD BE TAKEN WITH GRAIN OF SALT AT THIS POINT AS THE                 
SHORTWAVES THAT ARE PROGGED TO MORPH INTO THIS LARGE SYSTEM ARE                 
STILL OUT IN THE PACIFIC...NEAR THE GULF OF ALASKA AND EXITING                  
JAPAN. WILL NEED TO WAIT TIL THE UPCOMING WEEKEND WHEN ENERGY                   
REACHES THE WEST COAST BEFORE IT BECOMES SAMPLED BY RAOB NETWORK.               
IT IS PRETTY INTERESTING THOUGH HOW CONSISTENT THE MODELS HAVE BEEN             
WITH A SYSTEM THIS FAR OUT IN TIME. STRONG NEGATIVELY TILTED SYSTEMS            
EJECTING OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST CONUS CAN END UP SLOWER THAN PROGGED              
SO DECIDED TO KEEP PCPN OUT OF CWA ON SUN NIGHT. FOR NOW...HAVE                 
CHANCE POPS OVER ALL AREAS BY LATE ON DAY 7. TRACK OF STORM SUGGESTS            
SNOW FOR PTYPE BUT A FARTHER WEST TRACK WOULD RESULT IN LIQUID PCPN.            
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION (FOR THE 06Z TAF ISSUANCE)...                                         
DRY AIRMASS OVER UPPER MI WILL HELP TO MAINTAIN VFR CONDITIONS AT               
BOTH TAF SITES THROUGH THE MORNING...DESPITE THE APPROACH OF A LOW              
PRESSURE SYSTEM FROM SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA. HOWEVER...WIND SHEAR WILL            
BE AN ISSUE WITH THIS SYSTEM AS A LOW LEVEL JET MOVES ACROSS THE TAF            
SITES. AS THE SURFACE LOW MOVES TOWARDS EASTERN ONTARIO IN THE                  
AFTERNOON...A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO DROP SOUTH ACROSS UPPER MI.             
BEHIND THE FRONT UPSTREAM...A MVFR STRATUS DECK WITH A FEW FLURRIES             
EXIST...WHICH SHOULD MOVE INTO THE TAF SITES EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON.            
HAVE KEPT OUT THE MENTION OF -SN FOR NOW...BUT WOULD NOT BE                     
SURPRISED TO SEE SOME 7SM -SN OCCUR. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL              
BUILD INTO WESTERN UPPER MI IN THE EVENING. DRY AIR ASSOCIATED WITH             
THE RIDGE SHOULD ALLOW CLOUDS TO BREAK UP INTO A SCATTERED DECK AT              
CMX. A MORE PERSISTENT CLOUD DECK IS PLANNED AT SAW...DUE TO NORTH              
TO NORTHEAST WINDS BRINGING LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS OFF THE SOMEWHAT ICE             
FREE EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR.                                                     
&&                                                                              
.MARINE (FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)...                       
SOUTHWEST WINDS TO 30 KT ARE EXPECTED OVER PORTIONS PORTIONS OF LAKE            
SUPERIOR TONIGHT AHEAD OF THE NEXT APPROACHING LOW PRES TROUGH FROM             
CANADA. AS THE TROUGH PASSES ON TUESDAY WINDS WILL SHIFT NORTHWEST              
TO 25 KT OVER THE ERN HALF OF THE LAKE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND                    
EVENING. WINDS DIE OFF BRIEFLY LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND EARLY                     
WEDNESDAY BUT THEN INCREASE AGAIN TO 30 KT FROM THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST             
WED EVENING AHEAD OF YET ANOTHER CLIPPER LOW WED NIGHT. WINDS SHIFT             
WEST-NORTHWEST BY FRIDAY BEHIND THE TROUGH PASSAGE AND MAY APPROACH             
30 KT OVER THE FAR ERN PORTION OF THE LAKE. DUE TO EXTENSIVE ICE                
COVERAGE OVER THE WEST HALF OF THE LAKE AND WARMING                             
TEMPERATURES...FREEZING SPRAY WILL NOT BE MUCH OF A FACTOR.                     
&&                                                                              
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                        
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
UPDATE...AJ                                                                     
SHORT TERM...JLB                                                                
LONG TERM...JLA                                                                 
MARINE...JLB                                                                    
AVIATION...AJ                                                                   
</pre> mi                                                                       
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI                                     
126 AM EDT TUE MAR 11 2008                                                      
.AVIATION...                                                                    
STILL WATCHING THE FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF MAINLY LIGHT FOG OVERNIGHT            
AND THROUGH SUNRISE AS LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES IN ADVANCE OF AN            
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. VISIBILITIES ARE ALREADY SLIGHTLY RESTRICTED            
AT DETROIT TERMINALS. PATCHY DENSE FOG HAS DEVELOPED NEARBY...AND               
MAY AFFECT THESE SITES OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY KDET...NEARER LAKE ST             
CLAIR. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL BECOME WELL ESTABLISHED BY SUNRISE AS               
WELL...AND WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY AS THE FRONT APPROACHES                
FROM THE NORTHWEST.  WINDS WILL THEN VEER TO NORTHWEST AS THE FRONT             
TRAVERSES THE FORECAST AREA BETWEEN 00-06Z WEDNESDAY.                           
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 340 PM EDT MON MAR 10 2008                            
SHORT TERM...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT                                         
THE QUALITY OF MOISTURE HAS REMAINED POOR...KEEPING THE SNOW                    
ACTIVITY TO PREDOMINATELY FLURRIES.  LATEST TAMDAR SOUNDINGS DEPICT             
A SATURATED ENVIRONMENT LIMITED TO THE 900-700MB LAYER. THIS                    
AFTERNOONS WATER VAPOR IMAGERY/RUC GUIDANCE EXITS THE SHORTWAVE                 
RESPONSIBLE FOR THE CLOUDS/FLURRIES MOMENTARILY. WILL CARRY NO                  
HYDROMETEORS THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT WITH SUBSIDENCE/ANTICYCLONIC            
VORTICITY ADVECTION AND LOSS OF ANY DIURNALLY ENHANCED LAPSE RATES.             
TEMPERATURES SHOULD DIP RATHER QUICKLY THIS EVENING AS WINDS REMAIN             
SUBDUED AND CLOUDS SCATTER QUICKLY. MAINLY GONE A DEGREE OR TWO                 
BELOW GUIDANCE GIVEN FAVORABLE RADIATING CONDITIONS...AROUND 20 FOR             
MOST AREAS. SHOULD NOT GET QUITE AS COLD TONIGHT SINCE RETURN FLOW              
WILL DEVELOP ALLOWING FOR SOME WARM AIR ADVECTION.                              
LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH MONDAY                                              
THE 12Z MODEL SUITE ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH RESPECT TO A NORTHERN            
STREAM WAVE EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE STATE FROM CENTRAL CANADA               
TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE CURRENT WATER VAPOR LOOP ALREADY             
INDICATES A STRONG UPPER JET OVER WESTERN CANADA. THIS JET IS                   
FORECAST TO DIVE INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION TUESDAY                    
AFTERNOON...STRENGTHENING TO 110 KTS. UPPER DIVERGENCE ASSOCIATED               
WITH THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF THIS JET WILL BE FOCUSED ACROSS                    
SOUTHERN MICHIGAN BY 00Z WED. THE UPPER JET WILL ALSO ALLOW THE MID             
LEVEL WAVE TO AMPLIFY AS IT CROSSES THE STATE. THE ASSOCIATED                   
SURFACE LOW IS EXPECTED TO PASS NORTH OF THE STATE...WHILE A SURFACE            
TROUGH AXIS SWINGS THROUGH SE MI BETWEEN 00Z AND 03Z WED. THIS                  
SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO HAVE GOOD DYNAMICS...WITH A STRONG YET BRIEF              
SHOT OF DCVA AND UPPER DIVERGENCE. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW LACK OF DEEP            
MOISTURE TO BE THE MAIN LIMITING FACTOR FOR PRECIP. ALL MODEL                   
SOLUTIONS DO HOWEVER SHOW A NARROW RIBBON HIGHER 850-700MB THETA E              
AIR ADVECTING AHEAD OF THE SURFACE TROUGH. THIS COMBINED WITH THE               
DYNAMICS WILL WARRANT A LOW CHANCE OF PRECIP BETWEEN THE 21Z TUE AND            
03Z WED TIME FRAME. WITH SURFACE TEMPS FORECAST TO RISE INTO THE                
UPPER 30S/NEAR 40 TUES AFTERNOON...THE BOUNDARY LAYER LOOKS TO BE               
WARM ENOUGH TO SUPPORT A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW.                                  
MID LEVEL HEIGHTS WILL QUICKLY REBOUND ACROSS THE STATE ON WEDNESDAY            
IN THE WAKE OF TUESDAY EVENINGS WAVE. SKIES SHOULD ALSO CLEAR OUT BY            
WEDNESDAY MORNING AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION.            
A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT...ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEPARTING LOW IS                   
FORECAST TO SINK S-SE ACROSS LAKE HURON LATE TUES NIGHT INTO                    
WEDNESDAY...CAUSING 850MB TEMPS TO DROP TO -8 TO -10C OVER THE THUMB            
REGION BY WED MORNING. THUS...HAVE BACKED OFF WED HIGHS A                       
BIT...CARRYING MAX TEMPS ONLY IN THE LOWER 30S IN THE THUMB TO NEAR             
40 WEST OF THE I-75 CORRIDOR.                                                   
BY WEDNESDAY EVENING THE NEXT WAVE IS ALREADY FORECAST TO BE                    
ADVANCING INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION IN THE VERY                       
PROGRESSIVE NORTHERN STREAM. WHILE THE MAIN SURFACE LOW IS FORECAST             
TO PASS NORTH OF THE STATE...MODELS DO SHOW AN OCCLUDED FRONT MOVING            
ACROSS SOUTHERN MI EARLY THURS MORNING. STRONG LOW TO MID LEVEL                 
THETA E ADVECTION LATE WED NIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING WILL AGAIN                
WARRANT A CHANCE OF PRECIP. MODELS ARE NOT OVERLY ROBUST WITH THE               
QPF. HOWEVER GIVEN THE MAGNITUDE OF ISENTROPIC ASCENT...WILL                    
CONTINUE WITH HIGH CHANCE POPS OVERNIGHT WED THROUGH THURS MORNING.             
A WARMING BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD SUPPORT MAINLY RAIN AROUND THE                  
DETROIT AREA. LOWER WET BULB ZERO HEIGHTS FARTHER NORTH SHOULD                  
HOWEVER SUPPORT A RAIN/SNOW MIX...POSSIBLY EVEN SOME SLEET.                     
WITH THE FLOW ALOFT TRANSITIONING TO MORE ZONAL ACROSS THE CONUS BY             
LATE IN THE WEEK...THE AMOUNT OF COLD AIR ADVECTION IS NOT OVERLY               
IMPRESSIVE IN THE WAKE OF THURSDAYS SYSTEM. THE CURRENT FORECAST HAS            
HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 40S THURS AND FRI WHICH STILL LOOKS                     
REASONABLE. THE NEXT SYSTEM TO MONITOR IS A WAVE IN THE SOUTHERN                
STREAM FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY ON SATURDAY. THE GFS             
HAS BEEN TRENDING MORE AMPLIFIED WITH THIS WAVE...AS WELL AS WITH               
MID LEVEL FGEN OVER THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES. THIS MORE AMPLIFIED               
SOLUTION SOLUTION WOULD BRING COLDER AIR INTO THE STATE ON SATURDAY             
ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL ACROSS THE METRO             
DETROIT AREA AND POINTS SOUTH. THE 12Z ECMWF ALONG WITH SEVERAL GFS             
ENSEMBLE MEMBERS KEEP THE BULK OF QPF SOUTH OF THE STATE. SO AT THIS            
TIME A CHANCE OF SNOW ACROSS THE SOUTHERN 1/3RD OF THE CWA SEEMS                
REASONABLE.                                                                     
MARINE...                                                                       
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO PASS JUST NORTH OF LAKE HURON               
LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...SENDING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE            
LAKE AROUND 00Z. SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE LAKES             
TUES AFTERNOON. MODEL SOUNDINGS ONLY SHOW LIMITED MIXING HEIGHTS                
OVER LAKE HURON. THE SHALLOW INSTABILITY HOWEVER SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO            
PROVIDE FREQUENT GUSTS OF 25 TO 30 KNOTS TUES AFTERNOON. MIXING                 
HEIGHTS WILL INCREASE OVER THE LAKES WED NIGHT IN THE WAKE OF THE               
SURFACE FRONT. THE GRADIENT WILL HOWEVER BEGIN TO WEAKEN...THUS WIND            
GUSTS SHOULD REMAIN AROUND 25 KNOTS ACROSS THE OPEN WATERS OF LAKE              
HURON. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION BY WED                          
AFTERNOON...ALLOWING THE WINDS TO BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE.                    
&&                                                                              
.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
MI...NONE.                                                                      
LAKE HURON...                                                                   
     BRISK WIND ADVISORY...OUTER SAGINAW BAY AND THE NEARSHORE WATERS           
     FROM PORT AUSTIN TO HARBOR BEACH...FROM 8 AM TUESDAY TO 8 PM               
     TUESDAY.                                                                   
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.                                                           
MI WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.                                                  
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
AVIATION.....DG                                                                 
SHORT TERM...CB                                                                 
LONG TERM....SC                                                                 
MARINE.......SC                                                                 
YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE            
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).                                    
</pre> mi                                                                       
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX                                          
354 AM CDT TUE MAR 11 2008                                                      
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS AS THE SURFACE HIGH SETTLED IN HAS                  
RESULTED IN VISIBILITIES STARTING TO LOWER ACROSS PART OF THE                   
AREA. WILL KEEP THE MENTION OF FOG IN THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS.                
IN THE UPPER LEVELS...ANOTHER COMPACT...BUT RATHER INTENSE                      
CIRCULATION IS CUTTING SOUTHEAST THROUGH NM. THIS LOW WILL MOVE                 
ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. RUC ANALYSIS SHOWS 500MB TEMPS DOWN TO                 
-20C OR COLDER. THIS MAY BE ENOUGH TO SET OFF A FEW ISOLATED                    
SHOWERS AND/OR THUNDERSTORMS IN THE CONCHO VALLEY AND NORTHERN                  
EDWARDS PLATEAU AS LAPSE RATES INCREASE TO 7.5 TO 8 C/KM.                       
TEMPERATURES WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA TODAY WITH SOUTHERLY                 
FLOW...INCREASING THERMAL RIDGING. THE WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE              
THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK...AS SOUTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES. AS                  
TEMPERATURES INCREASE...RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL DECREASE...               
AND WILL RESULT IN ELEVATED FIRE DANGER WHICH WILL BE DISCUSSED IN              
FURTHER DETAIL BELOW.                                                           
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO THE 80S BY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. ON                  
FRIDAY...SURFACE WINDS MAY INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY. AN UPPER LEVEL               
TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE REGION. AS THIS              
TAKES PLACE...A SURFACE LOW IS FORECAST TO DEEPEN AND TRANSLATE TO              
THE EAST OVER OK. THIS WILL INCREASE WESTERLY WINDS...AND WITH 700MB            
WINDS AT 40 OR 50 KNOTS COMBINED WITH GOOD MIXING...WE MAY SEE WINDS            
OF 25 TO 35 MPH WITH GUSTS AS HIGH AS 40 MPH. THIS WILL ALSO DRIVE              
THE DRYLINE EAST THROUGH THE AREA...AND WITH DOWNSLOPING WINDS...               
DRIER AIR...WE MAY SEE TEMPERATURES REACHING INTO THE UPPER 80S OR              
EVEN LOWER 90S IN SOME LOCATIONS. CHANCES FOR PRECIP ASSOCIATED                 
WITH THIS FRONT ARE NOT HIGH ENOUGH FOR POPS TO BE INSERTED. A                  
COLD FRONT WILL FOLLOW THIS SYSTEM SATURDAY...BRINGING TEMPERATURES             
CLOSER TO NORMAL FOR THE WEEKEND. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL LOW IS EXPECTED           
TO IMPACT THE AREA DURING THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK...GIVING THE              
AREA A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...DEPENDING ON THE                  
AMOUNT OF MOISTURE RETURN AND PATH OF THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM. HAVE              
KEPT THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIP IN FOR NOW...MAINLY OVER THE                   
EASTERN 2/3 OF THE CWA.                                                         
.FIRE WEATHER...                                                                
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE WORK WEEK                  
ACROSS THE AREA AS A THERMAL RIDGE INCREASES OVER THE AREA. FIRE                
WEATHER DANGERS WILL RISE AS MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES FALL.             
CURRENTLY...THE DAY WITH THE HIGHEST POTENTIAL FOR REACHING                     
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER VALUES IS FRIDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL              
MOVE ACROSS THE AREA DEEPENING A SURFACE LOW TO THE NORTH OF OUR                
AREA...AND BRING STRONG MID LEVEL WINDS WITH IT AS WELL. THIS                   
PATTERN IS FAVORABLE FOR PUSHING THE AREA INTO EXTREMELY CRITICAL               
VALUES CONCERNING FIRE WEATHER. MIXING WILL BE STRONG...AND MAY                 
RESULT IN WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH OR GREATER OUT OF THE WEST FOR MUCH              
OF THE AREA. THESE STRONG WEST WINDS WILL ALSO PUSH A DRYLINE                   
THROUGH THE AREA WHICH WILL CAUSE TEMPERATURES TO RISE INTO THE                 
UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90. THIS WILL ALLOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES TO               
FALL TO LESS THAN 10 PERCENT ACROSS WESTERN PARTS OF THE CWA.                   
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
ABILENE  67  49  77  53 /  10   0   0  10                                       
SAN ANGELO  67  46  76  53 /  10   0   0  10                                    
JUNCTION  69  46  75  54 /  10   0  10  10                                      
&&                                                                              
.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
NONE.                                                                           
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
20                                                                              
</pre> tx                                                                       
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX                                          
1227 AM CDT TUE MAR 11 2008                                                     
.AVIATION...                                                                    
CLEAR SKIES...DEW POINTS IN THE 40S AND LIGHT WINDS WILL ALLOW FOR              
SOME AREAS OF BR TO FORM DURING THE OVERNIGHT...AS OF NOW THE                   
THINKING IS THE MOST LIKELY AREAS FOR BR TO DEVELOP WILL BE ACROSS              
THE HEARTLAND...NORTHWEST HILL COUNTRY AND NORTHERN EDWARD                      
PLATEAU..HAVE INCLUDED BR AS FAR NORTH AS KSJT TERMINAL BUT THE                 
LOWER VISIBILITIES WILL BE FARTHER SOUTH...SO HAVE MVFR TO IFR VISIBILITIES     
AS OF NOW IN THE TAFS...BUT WILL NEED TO MONITOR FOR LIFR                       
VISIBILITIES TO DEVELOP. SOUTHERLY WINDS AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS WILL                 
PICK UP LATE MORNING AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND                     
EVENING.                                                                        
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 651 PM CDT MON MAR 10 2008/                         
UPDATE...                                                                       
MAIN UPDATE TO GOING FCST WAS TO INSERT AREAS OF FOG OVER THE                   
CONCHO VALLEY, HEARTLAND, AND NORTHWEST HILL COUNTRY LATE TONIGHT               
AND EARLY TUESDAY. SURFACE WINDS ARE VEERING TO THE EAST LATE THIS              
AFTERNOON AND WILL BECOME LIGHT SOUTHEASTERLY TONIGHT. THIS WILL                
GRADUALLY BRING BACK THE BETTER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE OVER SOUTHERN                
AND EASTERN TEXAS. THIS...COMBINED WITH RADIATIONAL COOLING FROM                
THE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED TONIGHT WILL RESULT IN FOG AND/OR               
LOW STRATUS DEVELOPMENT...MAINLY OVER THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN                  
PORTIONS OF THE FCST AREA. RUC MODEL SOUNDINGS AT KSJT AND KJCT                 
AT 09Z TUE SUGGEST FAVORABLE HYDROLAPSES WITHIN THE LOWEST 10 TO                
20 MB OF THE SOUNDING TO SUPPORT DENSE FOG IN SOME SPOTS. WILL                  
HAVE TO MONITOR LATER TONIGHT TO SEE IF AN ADVISORY WILL BE                     
NEEDED.                                                                         
LACY                                                                            
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 631 PM CDT MON MAR 10 2008/                          
AVIATION...                                                                     
MAIN ISSUES THIS TAF PACKAGE WILL BE POSSIBLE LOW CLOUDS AND                    
SOMEWHAT LOWER VISIBILITIES LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY MORNING ACROSS              
SRN HALF OF AREA...IE SOA/SJT/JCT/BBD TAFS. WITH LIGHTER WINDS AND              
SOME RETURN FLOW COULD SEE SOME INSTANCES. MUCH MORE WIND EXPECTED              
BY MID TO LATTER PORTION OF THE WEEK WITH BETTER SRLY FLOW.                     
11/KEISER                                                                       
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 316 PM CDT MON MAR 10 2008/                          
SHORT TERM...                                                                   
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER WC TEXAS MOVING EAST THIS AFTERNOON...                  
WITH CLEARING SKIES. ANY CUMULUS THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD QUICKLY                  
DISSIPATE IN THE EARLY EVENING. WINDS WILL ALSO DECOUPLE THIS                   
EVENING...BECOMING LIGHT AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERS OVER                  
WEST CENTRAL TEXAS EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. WENT A FEW DEGREES BELOW              
GUIDANCE WITH GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING TONIGHT.                                 
LONG TERM...                                                                    
UPPER LOW SEEN IN THE WATER VAPOR LOOP OVER COLORADO WILL MOVE                  
ACROSS WC TEXAS TUESDAY. MAIN EFFECT WILL BE SCATTERED MID/HIGH                 
CLOUDS. MAY SEE SOME VIRGA...BUT DRY LOWER ATMOSPHERE EVAPORATE                 
ANY MID LEVEL SHOWERS.                                                          
DRY THIS WEEK...WITH ELEVATED FIRE DANGER WEDNESDAY THROUGH                     
FRIDAY. SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS IN THE PANHANDLE WEDNESDAY...WITH DRY              
PACIFIC FRONT THURSDAY. FRIDAY HAS THE MOST POTENTIAL FOR WILDFIRE              
DANGER...AS A SURFACE LOW MOVES FROM THE PANHANDLE MOVE SOUTHEAST               
ALONG THE RED RIVER DURING THE DAY FRIDAY. TOO EARLY TO TELL HOW                
MUCH WIND. GFS MODEL CENTERS THE SURFACE LOW NEAR HASKELL...WHICH               
WOULD KEEP WINDS LIGHT ACROSS MUCH OF THE BIG COUNTRY (BUT STRONG               
IN THE CONCHO VALLEY). IF FARTHER NORTH LIKE ON THE ECMWF                       
MODEL...TOWARD THE RED RIVER/SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA...DRY WEST WINDS                 
MIGHT BE SIGNIFICANTLY STRONGER IN THE 25-35 MPH RANGE ACROSS THE               
BIG COUNTRY. TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 80S WOULD JUST ENHANCE THE               
FIRE DANGER. WENT MORE TOWARD THE STRONGER WINDS IN THIS ZONE                   
PACKAGE.                                                                        
OTHERWISE LONG WAVE UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES TEXAS EARLY NEXT                    
WEEK. ECMWF SIMILAR TO GFS...BUT JUST A HINT FASTER. BASICALLY                  
JUST LEFT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY INTO                          
MONDAY...WHICH WAS ALREADY IN THE FORECAST.                                     
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
ABILENE  68  49  76  55 /  10   0   0  10                                       
SAN ANGELO  67  43  75  54 /   0   0   0  10                                    
JUNCTION  71  43  74  53 /  10   0  10  10                                      
&&                                                                              
.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
NONE.                                                                           
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
99/99/28                                                                        
</pre> tx                                                                       
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA                                       
648 AM EDT TUE MAR 11 2008                                                      
.AVIATION...                                                                    
MVFR CONDITIONS ACROSS A LARGE PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL                
IMPROVE AS WINDS INCREASE AND MIX THE LOWER LEVELS THIS MORNING.                
VSBYS CURRENTLY NEAR 3-5SM WILL RISE ABV 6SM BY 14-15Z AT THE LATEST            
AS WINDS INCREASE FROM THE SOUTHWEST AS A SFC HIGH MOVES SOUTH OF               
THE REGION. WINDS WILL INCREASE WITH GUSTS AROUND 15-20KTS THIS                 
AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES. HIGH                  
CIGS ABV 15K FT WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE IN THE PERIOD WITH THE WINDS              
VEERING SLIGHTLY TO THE WEST OR WNW AND LESSENING BELOW 10KTS AS THE            
GRADIENT BEGINS TO WEAKEN OVERNIGHT.                                            
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM (TODAY AND TONIGHT)...                                              
SFC HIGH IN CONTROL OF THE REGION THIS MORNING...CENTERED JUST                  
EAST OF STL AS OF THIS WRITING. NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH TROUGH                
AXIS NEAR OR ACROSS THE EASTERN COASTLINE. SKIES BEGAN TO CLEAR                 
OVERNIGHT ALLOWING FOR DECENT RAD COOLING FOR MOST OF THE                       
REGION...AND IN COMBO WITH LIGHT WINDS AND AMPLE LOW LEVEL                      
MOISTURE HAVE CREATED STRONG CONDITIONS FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT EARLY               
THIS MORNING. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR ANY SIGNIFICANT DROPS                
IN VSBY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE                    
FORECAST AREA. THE LATEST RUC 13 RUN WOULD SUGGEST THAT VSBYS                   
WOULD NEAR DENSE FOG CRITERIA BY 10Z...WILL WATCH THE CLEARING OF               
THE CLOUDS...TIMING...AND VSBY DROPS AFTERWARD TO SEE IF A DENSE                
FOG ADVISORY WILL BE NEEDED LATER THIS MORNING.                                 
GFS APPEARS TO HAVE WAY TOO MUCH MOISTURE WITH THE FAST MOVING                  
CLIPPER-LIKE SYSTEM THAT DRIVES THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES THIS                    
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. THE DRIER NAM MOISTURE FIELDS SEEM A BETTER              
FIT AS THE SYSTEM HAS NO WAY TO TAP THE GULF. EXPECT NEAR FULL SUN              
FOR THIS MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTN...MOST IF NOT ALL OF THE                   
REMAINING SNOWPACK SHOULD BE RELEASED IN THE NEXT 24HRS. THE                    
SNOWPACK HAD LITTLE AFFECT ON TEMPS TODAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER               
40S WHERE SNOW LIES...WITH THE INCREASING SUN ANGLE HAVE NOT                    
ACCOUNTED FOR THE OLDER SNOWFIELD COOLING AS MUCH AS NORMALLY WOULD.            
MOS EQUATIONS MAY STILL BE USING WINTER SCHEME...AND WOULD NOT                  
ACCOUNT FOR THE STRONGER MID MARCH SUN ANGLE AS WELL...ANOTHER                  
REASON TO GO ABV MOS IN THE SOUTHEAST...THE SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL                
HELP IN THIS MATTER AS WELL WITH MID 40S OR HIGHER ACROSS MUCH OF               
THE FORECAST AREA.                                                              
MID AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM MOVING TO THE             
NORTH AND EAST OF THE REGION IN THE EVENING. WEAK SFC TROUGH                    
PUSHING THROUGH AFTER MIDNIGHT...WITH JUST A  WIND SHIFT TO THE                 
NORTH. EVEN WITH THE NORTH WINDS IN THE EARLY MORN...LOWS WILL BE               
NEAR NORMAL IN THE UPPER 20S.                                                   
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)...                                        
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO MODERATE INTO THURSDAY AS SOUTH TO                
SOUTHWEST WINDS INCREASE AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING SURFACE LOW AND                
FRONT. HIGHS SHOULD BE ABLE TO REACH NEAR 50F WITH LOW LEVEL FLOW               
40 TO 50 KNOTS. KEPT A CHANCE FOR RAIN LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT                     
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. THE FRONT SHOULD REACH THE AREA EARLY                   
THURSDAY...AND THEN A WAVE SHOULD DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT OVER                  
MISSOURI AND MOVE EAST THURSDAY NIGHT. OVERALL THE GFS HAS BACKED               
OFF BRINGING MUCH COLDER AIR BEHIND THE FRONT THURSDAY NIGHT IN                 
LIEU OF THE WAVE ALONG THE FRONT. THEREFORE...ADDED A MIX OF RAIN               
AND SNOW LATE THURSDAY NIGHT. THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES CLOSE TO A                 
RAIN AND SNOW MIX. PLACED HIGHER RAIN/SNOW CHANCES OVER SOUTHEAST               
AREAS WHERE BEST FRONTAL LIFT WILL OCCUR...SO BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN              
BASICALLY MARION TO LIMA. A SECOND LOW SHOULD MOVE EAST NORTHEAST               
ALONG THE FRONT SATURDAY. THE BIG CHALLENGE HERE IS HOW FAR NORTH               
THE PRECIPITATION WILL SPREAD. RAISED SNOW CHANCES TO 50 PERCENT                
IN THE SOUTH...WITH 25 TO 30 PERCENT IN THE NORTH. A LARGE                      
ANTICYCLONE OVER SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA SHOULD HELP WITH DRY AIR                  
ENTRAINMENT AS A COLD AND DRY NORTHEAST FETCH SETS UP OVER THE                  
GREAT LAKES.                                                                    
&&                                                                              
.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
IN...NONE.                                                                      
MI...NONE.                                                                      
OH...NONE.                                                                      
LM...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHORT TERM...SCHOTT                                                             
LONG TERM...SKIPPER                                                             
AVIATION...SCHOTT                                                               
</pre> in                                                                       
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI                                             
1042 AM EDT TUE MAR 11 2008                                                     
.UPDATE...1004MB SURFACE LOW NORTH OF SUPERIOR THIS MORNING. MID                
LEVEL RETURNS INCREASING ACROSS UPPER MI. SUSPECT SOME OF THAT IS               
REACHING THE GROUND...THOUGH SURFACE OBS NOT YET INDICATIVE OF THAT.            
IR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A WELL-DEFINED SHORTWAVE MOVING EAST FROM            
THE KEWEENAW...A SECOND WAVE IS IMPLIED IN AN AREA OF MID CLOUDS                
ALONG MN/ONTARIO BORDER. PRECIP TRENDS ARE THE MAIN CONCERN FOR                 
TODAY.                                                                          
THE 2ND WAVE WILL ACTUALLY WILL THE DOMINANT ONE DYNAMICALLY...                 
DIGGING TOWARD CENTRAL LOWER MI. BUT MOISTURE AVAILABILITY IS LESS              
FARTHER SOUTH...WITH MORE SUSTAINED AND STRONGER ISENTROPIC ASCENT              
TO THE NORTH. IN ADDITION...MODELS SHOW A BETTER COMBINATION OF                 
STEEP MID-LAPSE RATES ABOVE 650MB...AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...ACROSS             
THE NORTH. THIS IS CERTAINLY INDICATIVE IN PRECIP TENDING TO BE                 
SHOWERY.                                                                        
WILL PLAY UP NUMEROUS SNOW SHOWERS IN EASTERN UPPER MI AND FAR                  
NORTHERN LOWER MI THIS AFTERNOON...WITH SCT POPS TO THE SOUTH...AS              
MID LEVEL INSTABILITY WILL ONLY OVERCOME LOW LEVEL DRY AIR IN SPOTS.            
ACCUMS AROUND AN INCH IN EASTERN UPPER MI...LESS THAN THAT SOUTH.               
MAX TEMPS LOOK OK...MAY NEED TO KICK UP A DEGREE OR TWO IN SPOTS.               
ZOLTOWSKI                                                                       
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 342 AM TUE MAR 11...                                  
LARGE SCALE PATTERN LOOKING PROGRESSIVE THIS WEEK WITH A BROAD 4-5              
WAVE HEMISPHERIC PATTERN.  REMNANTS OF A COUPLE PACIFIC ORIGIN SHORT            
WAVE TROUGHS WILL SWING THROUGH THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES OVER THE                
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...ONE TODAY COMING OUT OF MANITOBA THIS                       
MORNING...AND A SECOND WAVE COMING ONSHORE THIS MORNING LOOKS TO                
IMPACT THE AREA IN THE THURSDAY TIME FRAME.  BEYOND THAT PATTERN                
BECOMES BASICALLY SPLIT/ZONAL FOR THE WEEKEND...SOME HINTS AT A -NAO            
TYPE PATTERN DEVELOPING WITH RISING HEIGHTS ACROSS                              
ICELAND/GREENLAND...BUT PROBABLY IN NAME ONLY AS THE TYPICAL                    
RESPONSE OVER NORTH AMERICA (E.G., COLD FOR US) DOES NOT APPEAR TO              
BE IN THE CARDS WITH POLAR VORTEX BOTTLED UP ABOVE 60N...AND A                  
POSSIBLE RE-APPEARANCE OF THE SOUTHEAST U.S. RIDGE AS HEIGHTS FALL              
ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN STATES. A PROBABLE SET UP FOR MORE                      
COMPLICATED FORECAST ISSUES NEXT WEEK.                                          
IN THE MEANTIME...HIGH PRESSURE SINKING SOUTH OF THE STATE THIS                 
MORNING...WITH HEIGHT FALLS ASSOCIATED WITH MANITOBA SHORT WAVE/JET             
STREAK DIVING TOWARD THE WESTERN LAKES.  SURFACE PRESSURES FALLING              
IN RESPONSE TO THIS (3-4MB/3H PRESSURE FALLS ACROSS WESTERN                     
ONTARIO/NORTHERN MN)....ALLOWING ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW OVER EASTERN            
MANITOBA TO DROP SOUTHEAST TOWARD LAKE SUPERIOR.  SURFACE LOW                   
FORECAST TO SLIDE ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR TODAY...WHILE MAIN SHORT WAVE            
ENERGY COMES RIGHT ACROSS THE LOWER PENINSULA.  SO FIRST FORECAST               
PROBLEM THIS MORNING WILL DEAL WITH PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL WITH                
THIS SYSTEM.  DEEP LAYER RIDGING BUILDS INTO THE WESTERN LAKES FOR              
WEDNESDAY...THEN NEXT SERIES OF HEIGHT FALLS ARRIVES WEDNESDAY                  
NIGHT/THURSDAY...WHICH IS FORECAST PROBLEM NUMBER TWO.                          
TODAY/TONIGHT...HIGH CLOUDS INVADING NORTHERN MI EARLY THIS MORNING             
FROM THE NORTHWEST AHEAD OF APPROACHING SHORT WAVE TROUGH.  CLOUD               
TOPS HAVE BEEN COOLING/EXPANDING ACROSS MN AND WESTERN ONTARIO...AND            
STARTING TO GET INCREASING MOISTURE IN 900-500MB LAYER PER GOES                 
SOUNDER WATER VAPOR IMAGERY.  BUT MUCH OF THAT MOISTURE LIKELY ABOVE            
700MB WITH JUST A HANDFUL OF OBSERVATIONS OF CLOUDS BELOW 12K FEET              
THROUGH 06Z (MOSTLY ACROSS ONTARIO).  A FEW HIGH BASED RADAR RETURNS            
HEADED INTO LAKE SUPERIOR PER ONTARIO RADAR COMPOSITE...BUT NO                  
PRECIPITATION AT THE ONSET OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.  FORECAST PROBLEM            
OF THE DAY IS TIMING OF INCREASED SATURATION AS STRONGER DYNAMICS               
COME INTO PLAY (GOOD QG FORCING AND LFQ JET DYNAMICS).  LIFT IS NOT             
THE PROBLEM...THE QUESTION WILL IT BE ENOUGH TO MOISTEN WHAT IS                 
ADMITTEDLY A RELATIVELY DRY ANTECEDENT AIR MASS.  GUIDANCE IS STILL             
SPLIT ON THIS ISSUE...WITH THE NAM REMAINING DRY (SHUNTING BEST DEEP            
LAYER MOISTURE QUICKLY EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING)...AND            
THE GFS SHOWING BETTER MOISTENING WITH TIME AS STRONGER FORCING                 
ARRIVES.  ECMWF/UKMET/RUC THROWING SUPPORT TOWARD THE GFS...AND AS              
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS UPSTREAM WAVE TAKING ON A BETTER ORGANIZED            
(LESS SHEARED) APPEARANCE...GETTING COLDER CLOUD TOPS NOW DEVELOPING            
IN THE VICINITY OF LAKE WINNIPEG.  GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE FORCING            
HAVE TO BELIEVE THAT DEEP LAYER RH WILL IMPROVE THROUGH THE DAY TO              
SUPPORT A THREAT OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA...            
THOUGH SEE NO NEED TO CHANGE OUR POP DISTRIBUTION WHICH HAS BEEN                
CONSISTENTLY HIGHER TO THE NORTH. NOT EXPECTING PRECIP CHANCES                  
ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER UNTIL THE AFTERNOON. LAPSE RATES EXPECTED TO              
BE FAIRLY STEEP ABOVE 750MB...SUPPORTING THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME                
ELEVATED CONVECTIVE/SHOWERY ELEMENTS DEVELOPING. PRECIP TYPE WILL               
DEPEND ON DEPTH OF SURFACE BASED WARM LAYER...NAM TRYING TO SHOVE               
A PRETTY DECENT THERMAL RIDGE INTO THE FORECAST AREA LATER TODAY                
(925MB TEMPERATURES 4-6C WARMER THAN GFS)...THIS LOOKS OVERDONE                 
BASED ON INITIALIZATION AND 05Z AIRCRAFT SOUNDING OUT OF MPX WHICH              
INDICATED A 925MB TEMP OF +2C WHEN THE NAM HAD +5C PROGGED AT 06Z.              
SURFACE TEMPERATURES SHOULD WARM IN TO THE MID 30S AT LEAST...CURRENT           
FORECAST IS ALL SNOW EVERYWHERE AND THINK THAT`S THE WAY TO GO AT               
THIS TIME. WILL CONTINUE WITH THE IDEA OF SNOW SHOWERS TAPERING                 
OFF FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE EVENING HOURS.                                 
WEDNESDAY...RIDGING AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT BUILD IN WEDNESDAY IN              
THE WAKE OF TODAY`S SYSTEM.  SHOULD BE A NICE DAY WITH TEMPERATURES             
NEAR OR A BIT COOLER THAN TODAY (THE LATTER BEING ESPECIALLY TRUE               
THE FARTHER NORTH YOU GO).  NEXT SYSTEM TO IMPACT THE REGION ARRIVES            
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS A SHORT WAVE TROUGH CROSSES THE NORTHERN PLAINS              
AND INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES THURSDAY MORNING.  THIS WILL                   
INCREASE THE THREAT FOR SNOW FROM WEST TO EAST.  SOME QUESTION ABOUT            
PRECIP TYPE BUT THIS FAR OUT WILL KEEP IT SIMPLE (AND ALL SNOW).                
MARINE ISSUES...WILL CARRY SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES TODAY THROUGH THIS            
EVENING ON THE LAKE MICHIGAN SIDE...AND THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING              
ON LAKE HURON.  NO HEADLINES ANTICIPATED BEYOND TONIGHT.                        
EARLY EXTENDED PERIODS (THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...GUIDANCE HAS               
BEEN PRETTY CONSISTENT IN SHOVING A DRY SLOT ACROSS THE FORECAST                
AREA THURSDAY...THE IMPLICATION BEING THAT THE THREAT FOR PRECIP                
SHOULD WIND DOWN DURING THE MORNING WHICH THE CURRENT FORECAST                  
ACCOUNTS FOR.  THIS LOOKS LIKE IT CONTINUES INTO THURSDAY NIGHT/                
FRIDAY...SO WILL EXTEND THIS DRY PERIOD ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER INTO              
THOSE PERIODS AS WELL.  DRY SATURDAY FORECAST STILL LOOKS FINE AT               
THIS POINT AS A SOUTHERN BRANCH SHORT WAVE ZIPS ACROSS THE OHIO                 
VALLEY.                                                                         
JPB                                                                             
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...ISSUED 132 AM TUE MAR 11...                                         
SURFACE HIGH WILL MOVE TO THE EAST OVERNIGHT WITH RETURN FLOW                   
DEVELOPING ACROSS NORTHERN MICHIGAN. THIS MAY HELP TO PRODUCE A FEW             
LOWER CLOUDS ALONG THE LAKE MICHIGAN SHORELINE...BUT OTHERWISE JUST             
HIGH/MID CLOUDS.  NEXT SHORTWAVE TROF OVER SOUTHERN CANADA WILL                 
SWING DOWN INTO THE GREAT LAKES ON TUESDAY. THIS FEATURE WILL                   
TIGHTEN THE GRADIENT /RESULTING IN GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 20KTS/              
AND INCREASING CLOUDINESS.  MID CLOUDS AND VFR CIGS TUESDAY MORNING             
WILL GIVE WAY TO AREAS OF MVFR CONDITIONS AFT 18Z AS LOWER CLOUDS               
DEVELOP /ESPECIALLY AT PLN AND APN/.  THERE MAY ALSO BE SOME LIGHT              
PRECIPITATION DURING THE AFTERNOON AT PLN/APN...PROBABLY IN THE FORM            
OF LIGHT SNOW.  VFR CIGS WILL RETURN TO ALL TAF SITES AFTER 01Z AS              
SURFACE TROF EXITS THE REGION.                                                  
JK                                                                              
&&                                                                              
.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
MI...NONE.                                                                      
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR                      
LMZ341-342-     344>346.                                                        
LH...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LHZ345.              
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 11 PM EDT THIS             
     EVENING FOR LHZ346>349.                                                    
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</pre> mi                                                                       
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS                                             
1015 AM CDT TUE MAR 11 2008                                                     
.DISCUSSION...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY/RUC ANALYSIS SHOWS THE SHORTWAVE              
OVER THE MS/AL STATE LINE. THIS IS HELPING END THE RAIN A LITTLE                
FASTER THAN EXPECTED. LOCAL RADARS SHOW MOST OF THE SIGNIFICANT RAIN            
ENDING JUST EAST OF INTERSTATE 59. AS THE SHORTWAVE AND SFC LOW NEAR            
THE GULF COAST OF MS SHIFT FARTHER EAST THE RAIN WILL END AND THE               
CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO BREAK UP. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHERN                  
PLAINS WILL SHIFT SLOWLY SE TOWARD OUR AREA. TEMPERATURES LOOK ON               
TRACK NOW BUT IF THE CLOUDS CLEAR A LITTLE FASTER THAN EXPECTED THIS            
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES MAY TOP OUT A FEW DEGREES ABOVE CURRENT                  
FORECAST. UPDATED FORECAST FOR POPS HAS BEEN POSTED.                            
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...RAIN IS ENDING FASTER THAN EXPECTED AND CEILINGS HAVE               
RISEN TO VFR CONDITIONS AT MOST SITES. THE EXCEPTION IS IN THE SOUTH            
WHERE CEILINGS AT 1000-1500FT ARE RESULTING IN MVFR CONDITIONS.                 
CLOUDS IN THE SOUTH SHOULD RISE DURING THE AFTERNOON. ELSE...SKIES              
WILL BEGIN TO CLEAR FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE EVENING HOURS...               
LEAVING MOST OF THE CWFA CLEAR DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.  A FEW               
SITES MAY SEE A BIT OF MVFR PATCHY FOG OVERNIGHT...BUT THIS SHOULD              
NOT POSE ANY MAJOR PROBLEMS WITH VSBYS PERIODICALLY DROPPING TO                 
BETWEEN 3-5SM. THIS WILL MAINLY BE BETWEEN 09-13Z.                              
&&                                                                              
.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
MS...NONE.                                                                      
LA...NONE.                                                                      
AR...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
22                                                                              
</pre> ms                                                                       
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC                                          
1145 AM EDT TUE MAR 11 2008                                                     
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
SEVERAL WEAK WEATHER SYSTEMS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE            
NEXT WEEK. THE BEST CHANCE OF RAIN WILL OCCUR SATURDAY...ALTHOUGH A             
SIGNIFICANT RAIN EVENT IS NOT EXPECTED.                                         
&&                                                                              
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...                                    
AS OF 10 AM TUESDAY...WEAK SFC BOUNDARY HAS MOVED OFF SHORE WITH                
BRIEF SHIFT OF WINDS TO THE W-NW THIS MORNING. MID TO HIGH LEVEL                
CLOUDS HAVE BEGUN TO STREAM INTO LOCAL AREA ASSOCIATED WITH MID                 
LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.             
THIS SHORTWAVE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST THROUGH THE LOCAL AREA                
THIS EVENING. CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE...BUT SHOULD REMAIN              
THIN ENOUGH INITIALLY TO NOT IMPACT THE TEMPS TOO MUCH.                         
WINDS WILL SHIFT BACK AROUND TO THE S-SW THROUGH THIS                           
AFTERNOON..REMAINING MORE ON SHORE AND SLIGHTLY HIGHER ALONG THE                
COAST. THIS WILL ALLOW AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO LOCAL             
AREA AS LATEST RUC/NAM PCP WATER VALUES UP TO NEAR 1 INCH REACHING              
JUST FAR ENOUGH NORTH INTO THE CAPE FEAR AREA BY 00Z. LATEST SREF               
DATA SHOWING BEST CHC OF MEASURABLE PCP JUST SOUTH OF CWA AND OFF               
SHORE BETWEEN 00-06Z THIS EVENING...BUT MOST OF AREA HAS LESS THAN              
20% CHC. FOR NOW KEPT ONLY MENTION OF SPRINKLES IN FORECAST MAINLY              
ALONG THE COAST AND ADJACENT WATERS. MAY NEED TO ADJUST POP UP A                
LITTLE...BUT MOISTURE BELOW H85 STILL LACKING. BY WED                           
MORNING...SHORTWAVE WILL EXIT THE COAST AND DRY AIR WILL BUILD IN               
BEHIND IT. CLOUD COVER WILL CLEAR OUT BY DAYBREAK.                              
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...                  
AS OF 3 AM TUESDAY...WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW PREVAILS AT THE MID                 
LEVELS THROUGH THE PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE THE DOMINATE                 
PLAYER AT THE SURFACE. WITH PRECIPITABLE WATERS HOVERING AROUND ONE             
HALF OF AN INCH...POPS WILL NOT BE AN ISSUE.                                    
REGARDING TEMPERATURES...THERMAL PROFILES REMAIN NEUTRAL FROM AN                
ADVECTION STANDPOINT WEDNESDAY WITH 850MB TEMPERATURES OF AROUND                
FOUR DEGREES CELSIUS WITH AN ASSIST FROM DOWNSLOPING SUPPORTING MID             
TO UPPER 60S ACROSS THE AREA. SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF THE NEXT                  
SYSTEM WARMS PROFILES SOMEWHAT TRANSLATING TO 70-75 ACROSS THE AREA             
FOR THURSDAY.                                                                   
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...                                          
AS OF 3 AM TUESDAY...NOT MUCH CHANGE WITH 0000 UTC MODEL CYCLES IN              
REGARDS TO THE EXTENDED PERIOD. THE GFS IS SHOWING A SLIGHTLY WETTER            
SCENARIO FOR LATE SATURDAY/EARLY SUNDAY WITH A SLIGHTLY STRONGER AND            
DEEPER MOISTURE FETCH FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO. ONLY ADJUSTED POPS TO            
REPRESENT A LATER TIME FRAME...IE SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH THIS PACKAGE            
AS IF ANYTHING THE FRONT HAS SLOWED A BIT. OTHERWISE...NO OTHER                 
CHANGES.                                                                        
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...                                     
MVFR VSBYS LIKELY THIS MORNING BEFORE DAYBREAK AS T/TD SPREAD                   
CONTINUES TO NARROW. VERY WEAK COLD FRONT MARKED MAINLY BY SCATTERED            
TO BROKEN MID TO UPPER LEVEL CLOUD DECK WILL MOVE ACROSS THE CWA AND            
OFFSHORE BY DAYBREAK. OTHER THAN A BRIEF SHIFT OF WINDS TO THE WEST             
AND NW AFTER DAYBREAK AND THE AFOREMENTIONED CLOUD COVER DO NOT                 
EXPECT MUCH FROM THIS FEATURE. HOWEVER FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND                   
TONIGHT AN H5 SHORT WAVE WILL APPROACH AND THEN MOVE ACROSS THE CWA.            
THIS WILL BRING A MORE SUBSTANTIAL INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER BEGINNING            
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AND THE OFF CHANCE OF SOME SPRINKLES ALONG THE             
COAST TONIGHT. MODEL SOUNDINGS HAVE MOISTURE/CLOUD COVER CONFINED TO            
THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS SO DO NOT EXPECT ANY CIG ISSUES. CHANCES OF            
PRECIP TOO REMOTE FOR ANY VSBY CONCERNS OR MENTIONS IN THE TAFS.                
OTHER THAN MVFR VSBYS THIS MORNING...EXPECT VFR THRU THE REMAINDER              
OF THE PERIOD.                                                                  
THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR IFR CONDITIONS IN NOCTURNAL LOW CLOUDS                 
AND/OR FOG LATE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHTS. REDUCED VISIBILITIES             
AND LOWERED CIGS ALSO POSSIBLE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS RAIN CHANCES              
INCREASE.                                                                       
&&                                                                              
.MARINE...                                                                      
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...                                     
AS OF 3 AM TUESDAY...LIGHT WINDS WITH SEAS GENERALLY AROUND 2 FT                
TODAY AND EARLY TONIGHT AS GRADIENT REMAINS SLACK. A VERY WEAK COLD             
FRONT WILL MOVE OFFSHORE THIS MORNING BUT OTHER THAN A BRIEF SHIFT              
OF WINDS TO THE WEST AND NW DO NOT EXPECT MUCH FROM THIS FEATURE.               
SURFACE TROUGH INDUCED BY AN H5 SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE OFFSHORE                   
TONIGHT...INCREASING SHIFTING WINDS TO THE WEST AT AROUND 10 TO 15              
KTS BY DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY. SEAS MAY PICK UP AN EXTRA FOOT AS A                  
RESULT...UP TO AROUND 3 FT WELL OFFSHORE AFTER MIDNIGHT. ISOLATED               
LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY MAY ALSO RESULT.                                          
SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...                                
AS OF 3 AM TUESDAY...WESTERLY FLOW OF 10-15 KNOTS INITIALLY WILL                
BACK THROUGH THE PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE SKIRTS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST            
AND EVENTUALLY  MOVES OFF THE COAST. THE STRONGEST WINDS SHOW UP                
EARLY WEDNESDAY WITH 25 KNOTS AT 850MB ACROSS NORTHERN WATERS BUT               
WITH WATER TEMPERATURES ON THE MOVE AND WEAK OR NEUTRAL COLD AIR                
ADVECTION...TOUGH TO TRANSLATE TO THE SURFACE. SOUTHWEST FLOW OF 10             
TO 15 KNOTS SHOULD PREVAIL BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.                            
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...                                            
AS OF 3 AM WEDNESDAY...CHANCES ARE IMPROVING FOR AT LEAST SMALL                 
CRAFT CONDITIONS LATER SATURDAY WITH SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS TRENDING              
MORE DYNAMIC IN NATURE. HAVE INCREASED WINDS SLIGHTLY FOR THIS                  
PERIOD OTHERWISE NO CHANGES.                                                    
&&                                                                              
.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
SC...NONE.                                                                      
NC...NONE.                                                                      
MARINE...NONE.                                                                  
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SYNOPSIS...SHK                                                                  
NEAR TERM...REK                                                                 
SHORT TERM...SHK                                                                
LONG TERM...SHK                                                                 
AVIATION...REK                                                                  
</pre> nc                                                                       
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX                                          
1047 AM CDT TUE MAR 11 2008                                                     
.UPDATE...                                                                      
ADJUSTED DEW POINT TEMPERATURES TO REFLECT CURRENT OBS...THEN                   
INCREASED DAYTIME GRIDS TO REFLECT SLIGHTY HIGHER VALUES. RUC                   
SUPPORTS THESE VALUES INTO THE EARLY EVENING. DID NOT ADJUST                    
DAYTIME TEMPS.                                                                  
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM...                                                                  
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 623 AM CDT TUE MAR 11 2008/                         
AVIATION...                                                                     
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT TWENTY FOUR                     
HOURS...EXCEPT AT KSOA AND KBBD WHERE 3-4 SM VISIBILITIES WILL BE               
POSSIBLE THIS MORNING AS SOME LIGHT FOG DEVELOPS. LIGHT WINDS                   
WILL BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY AT AROUND 10 TO 15 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON.             
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 354 AM CDT TUE MAR 11 2008/                          
DISCUSSION...                                                                   
CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS AS THE SURFACE HIGH SETTLED IN HAS                  
RESULTED IN VISIBILITIES STARTING TO LOWER ACROSS PART OF THE                   
AREA. WILL KEEP THE MENTION OF FOG IN THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS.                
IN THE UPPER LEVELS...ANOTHER COMPACT...BUT RATHER INTENSE                      
CIRCULATION IS CUTTING SOUTHEAST THROUGH NM. THIS LOW WILL MOVE                 
ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. RUC ANALYSIS SHOWS 500MB TEMPS DOWN TO                 
-20C OR COLDER. THIS MAY BE ENOUGH TO SET OFF A FEW ISOLATED                    
SHOWERS AND/OR THUNDERSTORMS IN THE CONCHO VALLEY AND NORTHERN                  
EDWARDS PLATEAU AS LAPSE RATES INCREASE TO 7.5 TO 8 C/KM.                       
TEMPERATURES WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA TODAY WITH SOUTHERLY                 
FLOW...INCREASING THERMAL RIDGING. THE WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE              
THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK...AS SOUTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES. AS                  
TEMPERATURES INCREASE...RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL DECREASE...               
AND WILL RESULT IN ELEVATED FIRE DANGER WHICH WILL BE DISCUSSED IN              
FURTHER DETAIL BELOW.                                                           
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO THE 80S BY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. ON                  
FRIDAY...SURFACE WINDS MAY INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY. AN UPPER LEVEL               
TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE REGION. AS THIS              
TAKES PLACE...A SURFACE LOW IS FORECAST TO DEEPEN AND TRANSLATE TO              
THE EAST OVER OK. THIS WILL INCREASE WESTERLY WINDS...AND WITH 700MB            
WINDS AT 40 OR 50 KNOTS COMBINED WITH GOOD MIXING...WE MAY SEE WINDS            
OF 25 TO 35 MPH WITH GUSTS AS HIGH AS 40 MPH. THIS WILL ALSO DRIVE              
THE DRYLINE EAST THROUGH THE AREA...AND WITH DOWNSLOPING WINDS...               
DRIER AIR...WE MAY SEE TEMPERATURES REACHING INTO THE UPPER 80S OR              
EVEN LOWER 90S IN SOME LOCATIONS. CHANCES FOR PRECIP ASSOCIATED                 
WITH THIS FRONT ARE NOT HIGH ENOUGH FOR POPS TO BE INSERTED. A                  
COLD FRONT WILL FOLLOW THIS SYSTEM SATURDAY...BRINGING TEMPERATURES             
CLOSER TO NORMAL FOR THE WEEKEND. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL LOW IS EXPECTED           
TO IMPACT THE AREA DURING THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK...GIVING THE              
AREA A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...DEPENDING ON THE                  
AMOUNT OF MOISTURE RETURN AND PATH OF THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM. HAVE              
KEPT THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIP IN FOR NOW...MAINLY OVER THE                   
EASTERN 2/3 OF THE CWA.                                                         
FIRE WEATHER...                                                                 
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE WORK WEEK                  
ACROSS THE AREA AS A THERMAL RIDGE INCREASES OVER THE AREA. FIRE                
WEATHER DANGERS WILL RISE AS MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES FALL.             
CURRENTLY...THE DAY WITH THE HIGHEST POTENTIAL FOR REACHING                     
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER VALUES IS FRIDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL              
MOVE ACROSS THE AREA DEEPENING A SURFACE LOW TO THE NORTH OF OUR                
AREA...AND BRING STRONG MID LEVEL WINDS WITH IT AS WELL. THIS                   
PATTERN IS FAVORABLE FOR PUSHING THE AREA INTO EXTREMELY CRITICAL               
VALUES CONCERNING FIRE WEATHER. MIXING WILL BE STRONG...AND MAY                 
RESULT IN WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH OR GREATER OUT OF THE WEST FOR MUCH              
OF THE AREA. THESE STRONG WEST WINDS WILL ALSO PUSH A DRYLINE                   
THROUGH THE AREA WHICH WILL CAUSE TEMPERATURES TO RISE INTO THE                 
UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90. THIS WILL ALLOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES TO               
FALL TO LESS THAN 10 PERCENT ACROSS WESTERN PARTS OF THE CWA.                   
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
ABILENE  67  49  77  53 /  10   0   0  10                                       
SAN ANGELO  67  46  76  53 /  10   0   0  10                                    
JUNCTION  69  46  75  54 /  10   0  10  10                                      
&&                                                                              
.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
NONE.                                                                           
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
12/99                                                                           
</pre> tx                                                                       
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX                                          
623 AM CDT TUE MAR 11 2008                                                      
.AVIATION...                                                                    
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT TWENTY FOUR                     
HOURS...EXCEPT AT KSOA AND KBBD WHERE 3-4 SM VISIBILITIES WILL BE               
POSSIBLE THIS MORNING AS SOME LIGHT FOG DEVELOPS. LIGHT WINDS                   
WILL BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY AT AROUND 10 TO 15 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON.             
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 354 AM CDT TUE MAR 11 2008/                         
DISCUSSION...                                                                   
CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS AS THE SURFACE HIGH SETTLED IN HAS                  
RESULTED IN VISIBILITIES STARTING TO LOWER ACROSS PART OF THE                   
AREA. WILL KEEP THE MENTION OF FOG IN THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS.                
IN THE UPPER LEVELS...ANOTHER COMPACT...BUT RATHER INTENSE                      
CIRCULATION IS CUTTING SOUTHEAST THROUGH NM. THIS LOW WILL MOVE                 
ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. RUC ANALYSIS SHOWS 500MB TEMPS DOWN TO                 
-20C OR COLDER. THIS MAY BE ENOUGH TO SET OFF A FEW ISOLATED                    
SHOWERS AND/OR THUNDERSTORMS IN THE CONCHO VALLEY AND NORTHERN                  
EDWARDS PLATEAU AS LAPSE RATES INCREASE TO 7.5 TO 8 C/KM.                       
TEMPERATURES WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA TODAY WITH SOUTHERLY                 
FLOW...INCREASING THERMAL RIDGING. THE WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE              
THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK...AS SOUTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES. AS                  
TEMPERATURES INCREASE...RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL DECREASE...               
AND WILL RESULT IN ELEVATED FIRE DANGER WHICH WILL BE DISCUSSED IN              
FURTHER DETAIL BELOW.                                                           
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO THE 80S BY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. ON                  
FRIDAY...SURFACE WINDS MAY INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY. AN UPPER LEVEL               
TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE REGION. AS THIS              
TAKES PLACE...A SURFACE LOW IS FORECAST TO DEEPEN AND TRANSLATE TO              
THE EAST OVER OK. THIS WILL INCREASE WESTERLY WINDS...AND WITH 700MB            
WINDS AT 40 OR 50 KNOTS COMBINED WITH GOOD MIXING...WE MAY SEE WINDS            
OF 25 TO 35 MPH WITH GUSTS AS HIGH AS 40 MPH. THIS WILL ALSO DRIVE              
THE DRYLINE EAST THROUGH THE AREA...AND WITH DOWNSLOPING WINDS...               
DRIER AIR...WE MAY SEE TEMPERATURES REACHING INTO THE UPPER 80S OR              
EVEN LOWER 90S IN SOME LOCATIONS. CHANCES FOR PRECIP ASSOCIATED                 
WITH THIS FRONT ARE NOT HIGH ENOUGH FOR POPS TO BE INSERTED. A                  
COLD FRONT WILL FOLLOW THIS SYSTEM SATURDAY...BRINGING TEMPERATURES             
CLOSER TO NORMAL FOR THE WEEKEND. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL LOW IS EXPECTED           
TO IMPACT THE AREA DURING THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK...GIVING THE              
AREA A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...DEPENDING ON THE                  
AMOUNT OF MOISTURE RETURN AND PATH OF THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM. HAVE              
KEPT THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIP IN FOR NOW...MAINLY OVER THE                   
EASTERN 2/3 OF THE CWA.                                                         
FIRE WEATHER...                                                                 
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE WORK WEEK                  
ACROSS THE AREA AS A THERMAL RIDGE INCREASES OVER THE AREA. FIRE                
WEATHER DANGERS WILL RISE AS MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES FALL.             
CURRENTLY...THE DAY WITH THE HIGHEST POTENTIAL FOR REACHING                     
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER VALUES IS FRIDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL              
MOVE ACROSS THE AREA DEEPENING A SURFACE LOW TO THE NORTH OF OUR                
AREA...AND BRING STRONG MID LEVEL WINDS WITH IT AS WELL. THIS                   
PATTERN IS FAVORABLE FOR PUSHING THE AREA INTO EXTREMELY CRITICAL               
VALUES CONCERNING FIRE WEATHER. MIXING WILL BE STRONG...AND MAY                 
RESULT IN WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH OR GREATER OUT OF THE WEST FOR MUCH              
OF THE AREA. THESE STRONG WEST WINDS WILL ALSO PUSH A DRYLINE                   
THROUGH THE AREA WHICH WILL CAUSE TEMPERATURES TO RISE INTO THE                 
UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90. THIS WILL ALLOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES TO               
FALL TO LESS THAN 10 PERCENT ACROSS WESTERN PARTS OF THE CWA.                   
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
ABILENE  67  49  77  53 /  10   0   0  10                                       
SAN ANGELO  67  46  76  53 /  10   0   0  10                                    
JUNCTION  69  46  75  54 /  10   0  10  10                                      
&&                                                                              
.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
NONE.                                                                           
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
99/99/28                                                                        
</pre> tx                                                                       
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL                                        
250 PM EDT TUE MAR 11 2008                                                      
.SYNOPSIS...SHORTWAVE PRODUCING SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS SE               
AL AND S GA CONTINUES TO PUSH E. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE EVIDENT ON H2O               
VAPOR SAT LOOP AND 400 MB RUC PRESENTLY LOCATED OVER N TX. LOW AND              
MID CLOUDINESS CONTINUES OVER MUCH OF THE SE US IN RESPONSE TO                  
UPSTREAM ENERGY AS WELL AS WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT ACROSS THE AREA.                
TEMPS RANGE FROM THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S WITH DEW POINTS IN THE                
MID 50S.                                                                        
.SHORT TERM...GFS AND NAM FCST HIGHEST POPS THIS EVENING ACROSS SE              
GA AS SHORTWAVE CONTINUES TO MOVE E WITH ADDITIONAL LOW-LEVEL                   
SUPPORT PROVIDED BY WEAK SEABREEZE. ENUF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND                 
LIGHT ENUF WINDS FOR SOME FOG AGAIN TONIGHT. HOWEVER...DRIER AIR                
WILL BE FILTERING IN AFTER MIDNIGHT...AND EXTENT OF FOG SHOULD BE               
LIMITED.                                                                        
NEXT SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA WED AFTN...BUT MOSTLY DRY                
ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN SHOULD PRECLUDE ANY ADDITIONAL PRECIP. DAYTIME               
HIGHS WILL REMAIN NEAR NORMAL WITH NIGHTTIME LOWS SLIGHTLY BELOW                
NORMAL.                                                                         
.LONG TERM...NEXT STORM SYSTEM STILL PROGGED TO MOVE ACROSS THE SE              
US LATE THIS WEEK AND INTO THE 1ST HALF OF THE WEEKEND. BOTH GFS                
AND NAM INDICATING THAT A SMALL BUT RATHER POTENT SHORTWAVE WILL                
MOVE ACROSS NE FL WELL AHEAD OF THE ACTUAL SFC FRONT...WITH A GOOD              
SHOT OF SHOWERS AND SOME TSTMS. LOOKING AT THE ACTUAL STRENGTH OF               
THIS SHORTWAVE...THE AMOUNT OF VORTICITY AND LIFT APPEARS TO BE                 
OVERDONE...BUT THERE IS FAIR AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE MODELS. WILL                 
CAP POPS AT 40% FOR NOW. ALTHO THERE APPEARS TO BE A GOOD AMOUNT                
OF INSTABILITY BY SAT ACROSS THE AREA...GFS HAS MOST OF THE                     
FRONTAL PRECIP TIED UP AROUND COMPLEX AREA OF LOW PRESSURE N OF                 
THE AREA. HAVE MADE ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPS WITH VALUES                 
NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL THRU THE PERIOD.                                           
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...EXPECT DEVELOPING MVFR AT ALL SITES THIS EVENING AS LOW             
CLOUDS MOVE IN FROM THE WSW. HAVE TEMPO LIFR POSSIBLE 08-12Z ALL                
SITES DUE TO LOW CIGS. VCSH SHOULD SUFFICE UNTIL PRECIP DRAWS CLOSER            
TO TAF SITES AND THEN MAY INCLUDE TEMPO WHEN TIMING IS MORE                     
PREDICTABLE.                                                                    
&&                                                                              
.MARINE...NO HEADLINES EXPECTED UNTIL LATE FRI. STRONG POST FRONTAL             
NNE SURGE EXPECTED SUN THROUGH MON WITH SCA CONDITIONS LIKELY                   
OFFSHORE.                                                                       
&&                                                                              
.FIRE WX...HAVE RAISED A RED FLAG FOR OUR N FL ZONES WED DUE TO                 
EXTENDED DURATIONS OF LOW RHS AND A WATCH THU FOR ALL INLAND NE FL              
DUE TO LOW RHS.                                                                 
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
AMG  43  71  41  74 /  20   0   0   0                                           
SSI  50  68  48  69 /  50   0   0   0                                           
JAX  48  72  45  74 /  30   0   0   0                                           
SGJ  52  70  49  71 /  30   0   0   0                                           
GNV  49  74  44  75 /  10   0   0   0                                           
OCF  50  75  45  75 /  10   0   0   0                                           
&&                                                                              
.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
FL...NONE.                                                                      
GA...NONE.                                                                      
AM...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
CARROLL/ENYEDI/KEEGAN                                                           
</pre> fl                                                                       
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA                                       
110 PM EDT TUE MAR 11 2008                                                      
.AVIATION...                                                                    
AM ST DECK CONTS TO LIFT/MIX INTO SCT SC FIELD AROUND 2.5KFT AT 18              
UTC ACRS NRN IN. CONTINUED MIXOUT OF MOISTURE ANTICIPATED THIS                  
AFTERNOON LEAVING ONLY HIGH THIN CI OVERNIGHT. NAM MODEL INDICATES              
SATURATION/STRATUS POTENTIAL TOWARD DAYBREAK AGAIN WED AM...THOUGH              
MAGNITUDE OF MOISTURE APPEARS OVERDONE GIVEN LACK OF SUBSTANTIAL                
MIXING IN BL. FOR NOW WILL FORGO AM ST LYR...WITH ONLY PD OF HIGH               
END MVFR VSBY IN BR AT WORST WITH TEMPS HOLDING AOA XOVER AND                   
MIDLING SNOWCOVER.                                                              
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM (TODAY AND TONIGHT)...                                              
SFC HIGH IN CONTROL OF THE REGION THIS MORNING...CENTERED JUST                  
EAST OF STL AS OF THIS WRITING. NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH TROUGH                
AXIS NEAR OR ACROSS THE EASTERN COASTLINE. SKIES BEGAN TO CLEAR                 
OVERNIGHT ALLOWING FOR DECENT RAD COOLING FOR MOST OF THE                       
REGION...AND IN COMBO WITH LIGHT WINDS AND AMPLE LOW LEVEL                      
MOISTURE HAVE CREATED STRONG CONDITIONS FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT EARLY               
THIS MORNING. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR ANY SIGNIFICANT DROPS                
IN VSBY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE                    
FORECAST AREA. THE LATEST RUC 13 RUN WOULD SUGGEST THAT VSBYS                   
WOULD NEAR DENSE FOG CRITERIA BY 10Z...WILL WATCH THE CLEARING OF               
THE CLOUDS...TIMING...AND VSBY DROPS AFTERWARD TO SEE IF A DENSE                
FOG ADVISORY WILL BE NEEDED LATER THIS MORNING.                                 
GFS APPEARS TO HAVE WAY TOO MUCH MOISTURE WITH THE FAST MOVING                  
CLIPPER-LIKE SYSTEM THAT DRIVES THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES THIS                    
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. THE DRIER NAM MOISTURE FIELDS SEEM A BETTER              
FIT AS THE SYSTEM HAS NO WAY TO TAP THE GULF. EXPECT NEAR FULL SUN              
FOR THIS MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTN...MOST IF NOT ALL OF THE                   
REMAINING SNOWPACK SHOULD BE RELEASED IN THE NEXT 24HRS. THE                    
SNOWPACK HAD LITTLE AFFECT ON TEMPS TODAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER               
40S WHERE SNOW LIES...WITH THE INCREASING SUN ANGLE HAVE NOT                    
ACCOUNTED FOR THE OLDER SNOWFIELD COOLING AS MUCH AS NORMALLY WOULD.            
MOS EQUATIONS MAY STILL BE USING WINTER SCHEME...AND WOULD NOT                  
ACCOUNT FOR THE STRONGER MID MARCH SUN ANGLE AS WELL...ANOTHER                  
REASON TO GO ABV MOS IN THE SOUTHEAST...THE SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL                
HELP IN THIS MATTER AS WELL WITH MID 40S OR HIGHER ACROSS MUCH OF               
THE FORECAST AREA.                                                              
MID AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM MOVING TO THE             
NORTH AND EAST OF THE REGION IN THE EVENING. WEAK SFC TROUGH                    
PUSHING THROUGH AFTER MIDNIGHT...WITH JUST A  WIND SHIFT TO THE                 
NORTH. EVEN WITH THE NORTH WINDS IN THE EARLY MORN...LOWS WILL BE               
NEAR NORMAL IN THE UPPER 20S.                                                   
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)...                                        
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO MODERATE INTO THURSDAY AS SOUTH TO                
SOUTHWEST WINDS INCREASE AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING SURFACE LOW AND                
FRONT. HIGHS SHOULD BE ABLE TO REACH NEAR 50F WITH LOW LEVEL FLOW               
40 TO 50 KNOTS. KEPT A CHANCE FOR RAIN LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT                     
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. THE FRONT SHOULD REACH THE AREA EARLY                   
THURSDAY...AND THEN A WAVE SHOULD DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT OVER                  
MISSOURI AND MOVE EAST THURSDAY NIGHT. OVERALL THE GFS HAS BACKED               
OFF BRINGING MUCH COLDER AIR BEHIND THE FRONT THURSDAY NIGHT IN                 
LIEU OF THE WAVE ALONG THE FRONT. THEREFORE...ADDED A MIX OF RAIN               
AND SNOW LATE THURSDAY NIGHT. THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES CLOSE TO A                 
RAIN AND SNOW MIX. PLACED HIGHER RAIN/SNOW CHANCES OVER SOUTHEAST               
AREAS WHERE BEST FRONTAL LIFT WILL OCCUR...SO BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN              
BASICALLY MARION TO LIMA. A SECOND LOW SHOULD MOVE EAST NORTHEAST               
ALONG THE FRONT SATURDAY. THE BIG CHALLENGE HERE IS HOW FAR NORTH               
THE PRECIPITATION WILL SPREAD. RAISED SNOW CHANCES TO 50 PERCENT                
IN THE SOUTH...WITH 25 TO 30 PERCENT IN THE NORTH. A LARGE                      
ANTICYCLONE OVER SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA SHOULD HELP WITH DRY AIR                  
ENTRAINMENT AS A COLD AND DRY NORTHEAST FETCH SETS UP OVER THE                  
GREAT LAKES.                                                                    
&&                                                                              
.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
IN...NONE.                                                                      
MI...NONE.                                                                      
OH...NONE.                                                                      
LM...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHORT TERM...SCHOTT                                                             
LONG TERM...SKIPPER                                                             
AVIATION...MURPHY                                                               
</pre> in                                                                       
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
438 PM EDT TUE MAR 11 2008                                                      
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW A SPLIT FLOW PATTERN                  
ACROSS THE CONUS/SRN CANADA. IN THE DOMINANT NRN BRANCH...A                     
SHORTWAVE WAS DIVING THRU THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE              
WAS HAS RECENTLY MOVED ONSHORE OVER THE PACIFIC NW. THIS WILL BE THE            
FEATURE OF INTEREST FOR THE WEATHER HERE WED/WED NIGHT. STRONG                  
ISENTROPIC ASCENT AHEAD OF THE UPPER GREAT LAKES SHORTWAVE DID                  
MANAGE TO OVRECOME THE DRY LOW/MID LEVELS TO RESULT IN A PERIOD OF              
-SN EARLIER THIS AFTN OVER THE FAR ERN FCST AREA.                               
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THRU WED NIGHT)...                                         
SFC COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY MOVING S ACROSS THE FCST AREA...AND IT              
WILL CONTINUE TO HEAD S TONIGHT AS HIGH PRES SLIDES ACROSS NRN                  
ONTARIO. POSTFRONTAL STRATOCU DECK IS DROPPING TOWARD NRN LAKE                  
SUPERIOR ATTM. OBS IN ONTARIO HAVE INDICATED A FEW FLURRIES WITH                
THESE CLOUDS...SO THERE MAY BE A FEW FLURRIES THIS EVENING ACROSS               
THE NW AND NCNTRL/NE FCST AREA AS BKN CLOUD DECK SETTLES S. BEST                
CHANCE WILL BE OVER THE E WHERE SHARPER LOW-LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW WILL            
EXIST FOR A SHORT TIME THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE...TEMPS AT THE                   
INVERSION BASE DROPPING TO AROUND -12C WILL BE MARGINAL FOR LES                 
LATER TONIGHT. COMBINED WITH FLOW BECOMING ANTICYCLONIC...OPTED TO              
INCLUDE JUST A MENTION OF FLURRIES OVER THE NCNTRL FOR THE                      
OVERNIGHT. AS FOR TEMPS...WENT BLO GUIDANCE OVER THE W WHERE SFC                
HIGH PRES RIDGE WILL ARRIVE. LIGHT WINDS AND PROBABLY LITTLE IN THE             
WAY OF CLOUD COVER SHOULD ALLOW FOR DECENT RADIATIONAL COOLING.                 
WED/WED NIGHT...ATTENTION TURNS TO THE SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY OVER THE             
PACIFIC NW. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT DELAYING SNOW ARRIVAL OVER             
WRN UPPER MI UNTIL THE AFTN HRS...BUT IT`S ALWAYS A CHALLENGE TO                
TIME THE EROSION OF DRY AIR WHEN WAA/ISENTROPIC ASCENT DEVELOP.                 
GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF DRY AIR THAT THE NAM/GFS INDICATE...CERTAINLY DO            
NOT EXPECT ANY SNOW BEFORE THE AFTN HRS. SINCE THERE IS GOOD MODEL              
AGREEMENT SHOWING MEASURABLE PCPN REACHING THE W THIRD TO HALF OF               
UPPER MI BY 00Z...DECIDED TO CARRY SLIGHT CHC POPS TO KMQT/KIMT LATE            
AFTN WITH A TREND UP TO LIKELY POPS FAR W. DECENT PERIOD OF                     
ISENTROPIC ASCENT (290K SFC) THEN SPREADS ACROSS THE FCST AREA WED              
NIGHT. WITH MIXING RATIOS AROUND 3G/KG AND 6-9HRS OF ASCENT...EXPECT            
ACCUMULATIONS GENERALLY AROUND 3 INCHES IN MOST AREAS. NOT OUT OF               
THE QUESTION TO SEE A BIT MORE SINCE UPWARD MOTION NICELY INTERSECTS            
LAYER OF FAVORABLE DENDRITIC SNOW GROWTH TEMPS.                                 
.LONG TERM (12Z THU THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY)...                                   
NOT TOO EXCITED ABOUT PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL AFTER 12Z ON THURSDAY             
AS DRIER AIR WORKS IN ALOFT...THOUGH SOME LINGERING SNOW WILL STILL             
BE FALLING ACROSS THE EAST...THOUGH CAN/T RULE OUT SNOW ELSEWHERE.              
PRECIP. TYPE SHOULD REMAIN SNOW BEFORE A MIX OF RAIN/SNOW TAKES OVER            
IN THE AFTN DUE TO SFC HEATING. OPTED TO PULL POPS FROM THE EAST AS             
LIFT APPEARS TO BE MORE FOCUSED OVER THE WEST. FOR THU EVENING INTO             
FRI MORNING MOISTURE PROFILES HAVE THE LOOK OF A FREEZING DRIZZLE               
SCENARIO...HOWEVER ANTECENDENT ICE CRYSTALS MAY JUST KEEP ANY                   
PRECIP. THAT FALLS SNOW. LEFT THE FCST THE SAME FOR THU EVENING/FRI.            
AS THE LOW PULLS AWAY THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR LAKE EFFECT                    
DEVELOPMENT FRI EVENING AS COLDER AIR...850 TEMPS -12 TO                        
-14C...FILTERS INTO THE WEST AND EVENTUALLY THE WHOLE CWA BY                    
SATURDAY MORNING...THIS ALONG WITH PERSISTENT NORTHERLY FLOW SHOULD             
ALLOW FOR SOME LES TO DEVELOP. NOT EXCITED ABOUT SNOW                           
AMOUNTS...EXPECT LITTLE ACCUMULATION IF ANY THROUGH SAT AFTN.                   
THEREAFTER HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE FA FROM THE NORTH AND                  
REMAINS THROUGH MON MORNING. LOOKING AHEAD THERE IS THE POTENTIAL               
FOR A STRONG MID WEEK SYSTEM THOUGH THERE ARE SIGNIFICANT MODEL                 
DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE GFS AND EC SOLUTIONS. PART OF THE                       
DIFFERENCES APPEAR DUE TO THE HIGHER AMPLITUDE RIDGE OVER THE EAST              
COAST IN THE GFS SOLUTION ALLOWING THE WESTERN TROUGH TO DIG FURTHER            
SOUTH ALLOWING FOR A PLAINS LOW TO DEVELOP AND MOVE TO LOWER MI BY              
TUESDAY. THE EC SOLUTION YIELDS A MORE ZONAL FLOW PATTERN WHICH                 
WOULD SUGGEST A WEAKER NORTHERN STREAM SYSTEM FOR MID WEEK.                     
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION (FOR THE 18Z TAF ISSUANCE)...                                         
IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT DROPPING THRU THE UPPER GREAT                       
LAKES...MVFR STRATOCU DECK SHOULD DEVELOP IN NRLY FLOW THIS                     
AFTN...BUT MORE LIKELY TOWARD EVENING AS MVFR CLOUDS N OF LAKE                  
SUPERIOR ARRIVE. WHILE THERE MIGHT BE A FEW FLURRIES                            
TONIGHT...AIRMASS IS NOT COLD ENOUGH FOR ANY LAKE EFFECT SHSN THAT              
WOULD BE HEAVY ENOUGH TO REDUCE VIS. ARRIVAL OF HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE             
SHOULD SHOULD CAUSE CLOUDS TO BREAK UP INTO A SCATTERED DECK AT KCMX            
TONIGHT. EXPECT A MORE PERSISTENT CLOUD DECK AT KSAW INTO WED                   
MORNING DUE TO N TO NE WINDS BRINGING LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS OFF THE                
SOMEWHAT ICE FREE EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR. NEXT LOW PRES TROF                     
ADVANCING TOWARD THE UPPER GREAT LAKES WILL BRING -SN AND MVFR                  
CONDITIONS TO KCMX BEYOND THIS FCST PERIOD (WED AFTN).                          
&&                                                                              
.MARINE (FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)...                       
EXPECT PERIOD OF NRLY 15-25KT WINDS THIS EVENING AHEAD OF HIGH PRES             
SLIDING ACROSS NRN ONTARIO. WINDS WILL THEN DIMINISH OVERNIGHT/WED              
MORNING AS HIGH PRES RIDGE SAILS ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR. LIGHT WINDS              
WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS PRES GRADIENT TIGHTENS WED AFTN/NIGHT DUE TO             
LOW PRES TRACKING E TOWARD NRN ONTARIO. SHOULD SEE SRLY WINDS REACH             
20-30KTS WED NIGHT OVER THE E HALF OF LAKE SUPERIOR BEFORE                      
DIMINISHING THU. AFTER THU...WINDS SHOULD REMAIN UNDER 20KT FOR THE             
REMAINDER OF THE FCST PERIOD.                                                   
&&                                                                              
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                        
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM...ROLFSON                                                   
LONG TERM...DJP                                                                 
AVIATION..ROLFSON                                                               
MARINE...ROLFSON                                                                
</pre> mi                                                                       
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI                                             
123 PM EDT TUE MAR 11 2008                                                      
.UPDATE...PRECIP HAS ARRIVED IN PLN IN THE FORM OF RAIN...SOMEWHAT              
UNEXPECTED. SURFACE HEATING HAS BOOSTED TEMPS INTO THE MID OR EVEN              
UPPER 30S. EVAP COOLING SHOULD EAT THE SURFACE-BASED WARM LAYER                 
QUICKLY...BUT THAT HASN/T HAPPENED AT PLN YET. SO WILL UPDATE TO ADD            
RAIN TO NORTHERN LOWER. WILL ALSO DIMINISH PRECIP LATE IN THE                   
DAY...ESPECIALLY IN EASTERN UPPER MI...AS LOW/MID CLOUDS MAKING                 
SOUTHWARD PROGRESS ACROSS SUPERIOR HAVE LITTLE PRECIP. REDUCED SNOW             
ACCUMS TODAY FOR THE ABOVE REASONS...LESS THAN AN INCH EVERYWHERE.              
JZ                                                                              
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...SPOTTY SNOW OR MIXED RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS EXPECTED NEAR ALL            
THE TAF SITES OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...AND THEN AGAIN LATE THIS                
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING...THANKS TO LOW PRESSURE PASSING BY TO               
OUR NORTH. THANKS TO SOME INSTABILITY ALOFT...VERY BRIEF IFR                    
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE...BUT WILL NOT PLACE IN THE TAFS FOR NOW.               
DRIER AIR WILL ARRIVE FROM THE NORTH TONIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES              
AWAY FROM LAKE HURON...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY.                       
JZ                                                                              
&&                                                                              
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...ISSUED 1042 AM TUE MAR 11...                             
UPDATE...1004MB SURFACE LOW NORTH OF SUPERIOR THIS MORNING. MID                 
LEVEL RETURNS INCREASING ACROSS UPPER MI. SUSPECT SOME OF THAT IS               
REACHING THE GROUND...THOUGH SURFACE OBS NOT YET INDICATIVE OF THAT.            
IR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A WELL-DEFINED SHORTWAVE MOVING EAST FROM            
THE KEWEENAW...A SECOND WAVE IS IMPLIED IN AN AREA OF MID CLOUDS                
ALONG MN/ONTARIO BORDER. PRECIP TRENDS ARE THE MAIN CONCERN FOR                 
TODAY.                                                                          
THE 2ND WAVE WILL ACTUALLY WILL THE DOMINANT ONE DYNAMICALLY...                 
DIGGING TOWARD CENTRAL LOWER MI. BUT MOISTURE AVAILABILITY IS LESS              
FARTHER SOUTH...WITH MORE SUSTAINED AND STRONGER ISENTROPIC ASCENT              
TO THE NORTH. IN ADDITION...MODELS SHOW A BETTER COMBINATION OF                 
STEEP MID-LAPSE RATES ABOVE 650MB...AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...ACROSS             
THE NORTH. THIS IS CERTAINLY INDICATIVE IN PRECIP TENDING TO BE                 
SHOWERY.                                                                        
WILL PLAY UP NUMEROUS SNOW SHOWERS IN EASTERN UPPER MI AND FAR                  
NORTHERN LOWER MI THIS AFTERNOON...WITH SCT POPS TO THE SOUTH...AS              
MID LEVEL INSTABILITY WILL ONLY OVERCOME LOW LEVEL DRY AIR IN SPOTS.            
ACCUMS AROUND AN INCH IN EASTERN UPPER MI...LESS THAN THAT SOUTH.               
MAX TEMPS LOOK OK...MAY NEED TO KICK UP A DEGREE OR TWO IN SPOTS.               
ZOLTOWSKI                                                                       
DISCUSSION...LARGE SCALE PATTERN LOOKING PROGRESSIVE THIS WEEK WITH             
A BROAD 4-5 WAVE HEMISPHERIC PATTERN.  REMNANTS OF A COUPLE PACIFIC             
ORIGIN SHORT WAVE TROUGHS WILL SWING THROUGH THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES            
OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...ONE TODAY COMING OUT OF MANITOBA THIS              
MORNING...AND A SECOND WAVE COMING ONSHORE THIS MORNING LOOKS TO                
IMPACT THE AREA IN THE THURSDAY TIME FRAME.  BEYOND THAT PATTERN                
BECOMES BASICALLY SPLIT/ZONAL FOR THE WEEKEND...SOME HINTS AT A -NAO            
TYPE PATTERN DEVELOPING WITH RISING HEIGHTS ACROSS                              
ICELAND/GREENLAND...BUT PROBABLY IN NAME ONLY AS THE TYPICAL                    
RESPONSE OVER NORTH AMERICA (E.G., COLD FOR US) DOES NOT APPEAR TO              
BE IN THE CARDS WITH POLAR VORTEX BOTTLED UP ABOVE 60N...AND A                  
POSSIBLE RE-APPEARANCE OF THE SOUTHEAST U.S. RIDGE AS HEIGHTS FALL              
ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN STATES. A PROBABLE SET UP FOR MORE                      
COMPLICATED FORECAST ISSUES NEXT WEEK.                                          
IN THE MEANTIME...HIGH PRESSURE SINKING SOUTH OF THE STATE THIS                 
MORNING...WITH HEIGHT FALLS ASSOCIATED WITH MANITOBA SHORT WAVE/JET             
STREAK DIVING TOWARD THE WESTERN LAKES.  SURFACE PRESSURES FALLING              
IN RESPONSE TO THIS (3-4MB/3H PRESSURE FALLS ACROSS WESTERN                     
ONTARIO/NORTHERN MN)....ALLOWING ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW OVER EASTERN            
MANITOBA TO DROP SOUTHEAST TOWARD LAKE SUPERIOR.  SURFACE LOW                   
FORECAST TO SLIDE ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR TODAY...WHILE MAIN SHORT WAVE            
ENERGY COMES RIGHT ACROSS THE LOWER PENINSULA.  SO FIRST FORECAST               
PROBLEM THIS MORNING WILL DEAL WITH PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL WITH                
THIS SYSTEM.  DEEP LAYER RIDGING BUILDS INTO THE WESTERN LAKES FOR              
WEDNESDAY...THEN NEXT SERIES OF HEIGHT FALLS ARRIVES WEDNESDAY                  
NIGHT/THURSDAY...WHICH IS FORECAST PROBLEM NUMBER TWO.                          
TODAY/TONIGHT...HIGH CLOUDS INVADING NORTHERN MI EARLY THIS MORNING             
FROM THE NORTHWEST AHEAD OF APPROACHING SHORT WAVE TROUGH.  CLOUD               
TOPS HAVE BEEN COOLING/EXPANDING ACROSS MN AND WESTERN ONTARIO...AND            
STARTING TO GET INCREASING MOISTURE IN 900-500MB LAYER PER GOES                 
SOUNDER WATER VAPOR IMAGERY.  BUT MUCH OF THAT MOISTURE LIKELY ABOVE            
700MB WITH JUST A HANDFUL OF OBSERVATIONS OF CLOUDS BELOW 12K FEET              
THROUGH 06Z (MOSTLY ACROSS ONTARIO).  A FEW HIGH BASED RADAR RETURNS            
HEADED INTO LAKE SUPERIOR PER ONTARIO RADAR COMPOSITE...BUT NO                  
PRECIPITATION AT THE ONSET OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.  FORECAST PROBLEM            
OF THE DAY IS TIMING OF INCREASED SATURATION AS STRONGER DYNAMICS               
COME INTO PLAY (GOOD QG FORCING AND LFQ JET DYNAMICS).  LIFT IS NOT             
THE PROBLEM...THE QUESTION WILL IT BE ENOUGH TO MOISTEN WHAT IS                 
ADMITTEDLY A RELATIVELY DRY ANTECEDENT AIR MASS.  GUIDANCE IS STILL             
SPLIT ON THIS ISSUE...WITH THE NAM REMAINING DRY (SHUNTING BEST DEEP            
LAYER MOISTURE QUICKLY EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING)...AND            
THE GFS SHOWING BETTER MOISTENING WITH TIME AS STRONGER FORCING                 
ARRIVES.  ECMWF/UKMET/RUC THROWING SUPPORT TOWARD THE GFS...AND AS              
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS UPSTREAM WAVE TAKING ON A BETTER ORGANIZED            
(LESS SHEARED) APPEARANCE...GETTING COLDER CLOUD TOPS NOW DEVELOPING            
IN THE VICINITY OF LAKE WINNIPEG.  GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE FORCING            
HAVE TO BELIEVE THAT DEEP LAYER RH WILL IMPROVE THROUGH THE DAY TO              
SUPPORT A THREAT OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA...            
THOUGH SEE NO NEED TO CHANGE OUR POP DISTRIBUTION WHICH HAS BEEN                
CONSISTENTLY HIGHER TO THE NORTH. NOT EXPECTING PRECIP CHANCES                  
ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER UNTIL THE AFTERNOON. LAPSE RATES EXPECTED TO              
BE FAIRLY STEEP ABOVE 750MB...SUPPORTING THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME                
ELEVATED CONVECTIVE/SHOWERY ELEMENTS DEVELOPING. PRECIP TYPE WILL               
DEPEND ON DEPTH OF SURFACE BASED WARM LAYER...NAM TRYING TO SHOVE               
A PRETTY DECENT THERMAL RIDGE INTO THE FORECAST AREA LATER TODAY                
(925MB TEMPERATURES 4-6C WARMER THAN GFS)...THIS LOOKS OVERDONE                 
BASED ON INITIALIZATION AND 05Z AIRCRAFT SOUNDING OUT OF MPX WHICH              
INDICATED A 925MB TEMP OF +2C WHEN THE NAM HAD +5C PROGGED AT 06Z.              
SURFACE TEMPERATURES SHOULD WARM IN TO THE MID 30S AT LEAST...CURRENT           
FORECAST IS ALL SNOW EVERYWHERE AND THINK THAT`S THE WAY TO GO AT               
THIS TIME. WILL CONTINUE WITH THE IDEA OF SNOW SHOWERS TAPERING                 
OFF FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE EVENING HOURS.                                 
WEDNESDAY...RIDGING AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT BUILD IN WEDNESDAY IN              
THE WAKE OF TODAY`S SYSTEM.  SHOULD BE A NICE DAY WITH TEMPERATURES             
NEAR OR A BIT COOLER THAN TODAY (THE LATTER BEING ESPECIALLY TRUE               
THE FARTHER NORTH YOU GO).  NEXT SYSTEM TO IMPACT THE REGION ARRIVES            
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS A SHORT WAVE TROUGH CROSSES THE NORTHERN PLAINS              
AND INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES THURSDAY MORNING.  THIS WILL                   
INCREASE THE THREAT FOR SNOW FROM WEST TO EAST.  SOME QUESTION ABOUT            
PRECIP TYPE BUT THIS FAR OUT WILL KEEP IT SIMPLE (AND ALL SNOW).                
MARINE ISSUES...WILL CARRY SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES TODAY THROUGH THIS            
EVENING ON THE LAKE MICHIGAN SIDE...AND THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING              
ON LAKE HURON.  NO HEADLINES ANTICIPATED BEYOND TONIGHT.                        
EARLY EXTENDED PERIODS (THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...GUIDANCE HAS               
BEEN PRETTY CONSISTENT IN SHOVING A DRY SLOT ACROSS THE FORECAST                
AREA THURSDAY...THE IMPLICATION BEING THAT THE THREAT FOR PRECIP                
SHOULD WIND DOWN DURING THE MORNING WHICH THE CURRENT FORECAST                  
ACCOUNTS FOR.  THIS LOOKS LIKE IT CONTINUES INTO THURSDAY NIGHT/                
FRIDAY...SO WILL EXTEND THIS DRY PERIOD ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER INTO              
THOSE PERIODS AS WELL.  DRY SATURDAY FORECAST STILL LOOKS FINE AT               
THIS POINT AS A SOUTHERN BRANCH SHORT WAVE ZIPS ACROSS THE OHIO                 
VALLEY.                                                                         
JPB                                                                             
&&                                                                              
.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
MI...NONE.                                                                      
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR                      
LMZ341-342-     344>346.                                                        
LH...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LHZ345.              
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 11 PM EDT THIS             
     EVENING FOR LHZ346>349.                                                    
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</pre> mi                                                                       
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS                                             
315 PM CDT TUE MAR 11 2008                                                      
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...WARMING TREND                    
EXPECTED INTO FRIDAY ALONG WITH QUIET WEATHER FOR THE SHORT TERM                
UNTIL THURSDAY NIGHT IN THE WEST. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY/RUC ANALYSIS              
SHOWS A SHORTWAVE OVER WEST TEXAS THIS AFTERNOON. THIS SHORTWAVE                
WILL MOVE TO THE EAST SOUTHEAST TONIGHT TRACKING JUST SOUTH OF OUR              
CWA. THIS WILL BRING A SHORTWAVE TROUGH AXIS ACROSS OUR CWA BUT HAVE            
LITTLE AFFECT ON OUR SENSIBLE WEATHER. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE                    
CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON WILL SHIFT EAST                
ACROSS THE GULF COAST AND OFF THE EAST COAST THURSDAY. THIS WILL                
HELP PROVIDE US WITH A COUPLE OF WARM SPRING-LIKE DAYS. IN THE WAKE             
OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED               
OVER THE MISSISSIPPI GULF COAST WEDNESDAY...DECENT INSOLATION SHOULD            
LEAD TO AFTERNOON HIGHS REACHING 70 DEGREES AGAIN. AS THE SURFACE               
HIGH SHIFTS EAST OF CWFA THURSDAY RETURN FLOW WILL HELP TEMPERATURES            
TOP OUT A FEW DEGREES WARMER IN THE LOWER 70S. OUR AIRMASS WILL STILL           
BE RATHER DRY THURSDAY WITH BUFR SOUNDINGS SHOWING PWS AT OR BELOW A            
HALF INCH THURSDAY AFTERNOON. DEEP MOISTURE WILL LIKELY TAKE SOME               
MORE TIME TO RETURN BUT MODELS SHOW WAA INCREASING THURSDAY NIGHT               
AHEAD OF A SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW OVER TEXAS. BY THE              
START OF FRIDAY MORNING PWS ARE EXPECTED TO BE BACK ABOVE ONE INCH.             
ALTHOUGH THE GFS IS A LITTLE FASTER THAN THE NAM IN MODIFYING OUR               
AIRMASS...SOME FAVORABLE INGREDIENTS FOR MAINLY ELEVATED STRONG TO              
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE INDICATED IN THE MODELS OVER THE WESTERN               
PORTIONS OF OUR CWFA AFTER MIDNIGHT. WL CONTINUE BLURB IN THE HWO.              
/22/                                                                            
.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...THE EXTENDED STILL LOOKS TO BE            
ACTIVE AND QUITE INTERESTING. THE MDLS HAVE NOT BACKED OFF FROM THE             
POSSIBILITY OF SEEING A FEW SERIOUS STORMS FRI AFTN/EVN WITH ANOTHER            
SYSTEM EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK. MAIN FOCUS WILL CONCENTRATE ON THE               
LATE FRI STORM AS NEXT WEEKS SYSTEM STILL HAS QUITE A BIT OF                    
UNCERTAINTIES.                                                                  
THINKING HASN`T CHANGED MUCH ON THE LATE FRI STORM SYSTEM. WARM                 
FRONTAL FEATURE WILL BE SITUATED ALONG THE NRN FRINGES OF THE CWA.              
LAPSE RATES WILL BE QUITE STEEP DUE TO THE VERY WARM LL TEMPS (H85              
OF 14-15C) BEING SHOWN. THESE WARM LL TEMPS WILL ALSO PROVIDE A CAP             
ACROSS THE CWA BUT IT WILL BE A GOOD DEAL WEAKER IN THE NORTH                   
COMPARED TO THE SOUTH. DURING THE DAY FRI A STRONG MID LEVEL JET                
CORE WILL PUSH EAST ACROSS THE DESERT SW AND INTO CNTRL TX. THIS                
INDUCE CYCLOGENESIS AROUND THE TX PANHANDLE AND THE SFC LOW WILL                
TRACK EAST ALONG THE WARM FRONT THROUGH OK/AR/TN WITH MSLP POSSIBLY             
DIPPING BELOW 998MB IN THE NW. DEEP MOISTURE IS STILL NOT OVERLY                
IMPRESSIVE BUT THE LATEST GFS DOES HAVE HIGHER DEWPOINTS NOW FURTHER            
NORTH(+65 UP TO GLH). THIS IS LIKELY A RESULT OF IT LOSING THE                  
BIG CONVECTIVE FEATURE JUST SOUTH OF LA THIS RUN AND DEVELOPING IT              
FURTHER TO THE EAST. THIS IS STILL LEADING TO MLCAPE VALUES IN                  
EXCESS OF 2000J/KG AT 0Z FRI. STORMS STILL LOOK LIKE THEY WILL                  
INITIATE TO THE WEST AND NW OF THE CWA FRI AFTN AS THE STRONG MID               
LEVEL ACCENT PUSHES INTO THAT AREA. LIKE PREVIOUS FCSTER MENTIONED              
THE STORM MOTION WILL LIKELY BE EAST WITH SOME SLIGHT DEVIATION TO              
THE ESE/SSE. OVERALL WITH THE STRONG CAP AND LACK OF DEEP MOISTURE              
STORMS WILL HAVE A HARD TIME GOING AND THEY WILL LIKELY BE FEWER IN             
NUMBER BUT THAT IS NOT NECESSARILY A GOOD THING. THE STRONG CAP WILL            
ALLOW US TO BECOME QUITE UNSTABLE(EVIDENT WITH THE +2000J/KG MLCAPE)            
AND WITH FEWER STORMS THEY WILL BE ABLE TO MAXIMIZE THE ENVIRONMENT.            
THE SNDG SUGGEST THAT THESE STORMS COULD POSE A RATHER SIGNIFICANT              
HAIL THREAT AND THE WAY THIS PATTERN IS SETTING UP IT CLOSELY                   
MATCHES AN EVENT ON MAY 3RD 1984 WHICH ALSO PROVIDED SIGNIFICANT                
HAIL ACROSS THE AREA. ANY STORMS THAT MOVE INTO THE AREA IN THE AFTN            
AND EARLY EVN WOULD ALSO PROVIDE A DAMAGING WIND AND TORNADO THREAT             
BUT AFTER WE START TO DECOUPLE THE WIND THREAT WOULD BEGIN TO                   
DIMINISH SOME.                                                                  
IT STILL LOOKS LIKE THE AREA SOUTH OF I 20 WILL BE CAPPED WITH THE              
CAP INCREASING IN STRENGTH THROUGH THE NIGHT. NORTH OF I 20 THE CAP             
WILL BE WEAKER AND WITH THE ACCENT FROM THE MID LEVEL JET PUSHING IN            
THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH SUPPORT TO GET A FEW STORMS GOING AS EARLY AS            
FRI AFTN BUT MAINLY INTO THE EVN HRS. ONE MORE THING...JUST LIKE THE            
PREVIOUS FCSTER MENTIONED IF THE MID LEVEL JET IS DISPLACED FURTHER             
TO THE NW THEN WE COULD SEE NOTHING. THE ONE THING THAT DOES SEEM               
LIKELY IS IF WE CAN GET ANY STORMS GOING THEY WILL BE SEVERE AND                
CONTAIN LARGE HAIL.                                                             
FOR THE REST OF THE FCST THE MDLS ARE STILL HAVING A DIFFICULT TIME             
WITH THE TIMING OF THE NEXT SYSTEM. WITH THIS I WILL MAKE NO CHANGES            
TO THE 00Z GUI AT THIS TIME AND I WILL ATTACH THE PREVIOUS LONG TERM            
PORTION CONCERNING THESE DAYS. /CAB/                                            
FOR SAT...COLD FRONT WILL ENTER AND MOVE THROUGH THE CWA. I HAVE                
RAISE LOWS/HIGHS ACROSS THE S HALF BASED ON EXPECTED TIMING OF THE              
FRONT. MUCH DRIER/STABLE AIR WILL MOVE IN AND KEEP THING DRY THROUGH            
SUN NIGHT. LATEST GUID LOOKED GOOD HAVE HAVE GENERALLY ACCEPTED. I              
DID TWEAK UPWARD SOME HIGH TEMPS FOR SUN/MON.                                   
THE 3RD SYSTEM IS SHOWING SIGNS OF SLOWING AND COULD IMPACT THE                 
FORECAST AREA ANY TIME BETWEEN MON AFTERNOON AND TUE NIGHT. WHEN                
EVER IT ARRIVES...IT WILL LIKELY HAVE ENOUGH GOING FOR IT TO BRING A            
RISK OF STRONG/SVR STORMS.  /CME/                                               
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THIS EVENING AND LAST                   
THROUGH 08Z WEDNESDAY. A FEW SITES IN THE SOUTH MAY SEE PATCHY FOG              
DEVELOP AFTER 08Z. VISIBILITIES SHOULD RANGE 3-5SM MAINLY BE BETWEEN            
09-13Z. ANY FOG THAT DEVELOPS SHOULD BURN OFF BY 14Z AND VFR                    
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AREAWIDE WEDNESDAY. /22/                                
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
JACKSON       41  71  45  73 /   0   0   0   8                                  
MERIDIAN      36  71  39  74 /   0   0   0   7                                  
VICKSBURG     42  71  46  74 /   0   0   0   7                                  
HATTIESBURG   42  71  40  74 /   0   0   0   8                                  
NATCHEZ       42  71  46  74 /   0   0   0   7                                  
GREENVILLE    43  72  46  73 /   0   0   0   9                                  
GREENWOOD     40  72  46  73 /   0   0   0  10                                  
&&                                                                              
.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
MS...NONE.                                                                      
LA...NONE.                                                                      
AR...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHORT TERM/AVIATION: 22                                                         
LONG TERM: CAB/CME                                                              
</pre> ms                                                                       
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC                                          
331 PM EDT TUE MAR 11 2008                                                      
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
A WEAK DISTURBANCE IN THE MID LEVELS WILL PRODUCE CLOUDS AND A FEW              
SPRINKLES OVER THE LOCAL AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS                     
EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN ON WEDNESDAY. THE HIGH WILL                
SLIDE OFF THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES COAST THURSDAY AND                        
FRIDAY...FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT LATE ON SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE               
BUILDS IN SUNDAY AND MONDAY.                                                    
&&                                                                              
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...                                                 
AS OF 3 PM TUESDAY...MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO                  
STREAM INTO LOCAL AREA AND INCREASE THROUGH THIS                                
EVENING...ASSOCIATED WITH APPROACHING MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE. THIS                 
SHORTWAVE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST THROUGH THE LOCAL AREA THIS                
EVENING.                                                                        
WINDS WILL SHIFT BACK AROUND TO THE S-SW THROUGH LATE THIS                      
AFTERNOON..REMAINING MORE ON SHORE AND SLIGHTLY HIGHER ALONG THE                
COAST. THIS WILL ALLOW AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO LOCAL             
AREA AS LATEST RUC/NAM PCP WATER VALUES UP TO NEAR 1 INCH REACHING              
JUST FAR ENOUGH NORTH INTO THE CAPE FEAR AREA BY 00Z. MOISTURE WILL             
BE LIMITED BELOW H85...WITH GREATEST RH BETWEEN H70 AND H50 BETWEEN             
02-05Z. LATEST SREF DATA SHOWING BEST CHC OF MEASURABLE PCP JUST                
SOUTH OF CWA AND OFF SHORE BETWEEN 00-06Z THIS EVENING...BUT MOST OF            
AREA HAS LESS THAN 20% CHC. KEPT ONLY MENTION OF SPRINKLES IN                   
FORECAST MAINLY ALONG THE COAST. BY WED MORNING...SHORTWAVE WILL                
EXIT THE COAST AND DRY AIR WILL BUILD IN BEHIND IT. SKIES WILL BE               
CLEARING BY DAYBREAK.                                                           
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...                               
AS OF 3 PM TUESDAY...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE REMAINS TO OUR SOUTH              
THROUGH THE PERIOD...RESULTING IN MILD AND DRY CONDITIONS.                      
THICKNESS PROGS SUPPORT MAX TEMPS IN THE UPPER 60S WED...AND INTO               
THE LOWER 70S THU. HAVE TRIED TO REFLECT A LARGER SPREAD FOR BEACH              
TEMPS IN SW FLOW ON THU...BUT WNW LOW-LEVEL FLOW ON WED WILL KEEP               
ANY SEABREEZE PINNED.                                                           
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...                                          
AS OF 3 PM TUESDAY...MOST OF THE ENERGY ALOFT WILL BE IN THE WNR                
U.S. AT THE START OF THE PD. AND ALTHOUGH GUIDANCE SHOWS                        
REASONABLE AGREEMENT THERE IS STILL CONSIDERABLE DOUBT ABOUT THEIR              
HAVING THE EVOLUTION OF THE PATTERN CORRECT. BASICALLY THE FLOW                 
SEEMS TO BE TOO ZONAL DOWNSTREAM HERE IN THE EAST AND THAT MORE OF              
A RIDGE SHOULD BE DEVELOPING. CONVERGENCE BETWEEN THE NRN AND SRN               
STREAMS SHOULD STILL BE ABLE TO DRIVE A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT                     
THROUGH THE REGION. WITH NEGLIGIBLE FORCING EXPECT A GENERALLY DRY              
FCST BUT THE PRESENCE OF THE BOUNDARY WILL MAKE ZERO POPS TOUGH TO              
GO WITH THROUGH SATURDAY. LARGE STORM FORMING OFF THE NE COAST                  
SHOULD BE ABLE TO DRIVE THE FRONT WELL TO THE SOUTH FOR THE                     
REMAINDER OF THE PD. TEMPS FRI AND SAT ABV CLIMO FOR NOW...UNLESS               
THE BACKDOOR MANAGES TO SLIDE FARTHER SOUTH THAN PROGGED. TEMPS                 
BACK TO CLIMO BEHIND THE MAIN PUSH ON SUNDAY AND INTO MONDAY.                   
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...                                       
ONLY AVIATION PLAYER THIS EVENING IS A WEAK SHORT WAVE THAT WILL                
PROPAGATE NORTHEAST ACROSS THE CWA FROM 23-04Z. OUTSIDE SHOT THAT WE            
WILL SEE SOME LIGHT PRECIP...BUT MAINLY JUST A MID CLOUD CEILINGS.              
THIS SHOULD KEEP FOG AT BAY. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST AFTER            
PASSAGE...WITH SOME GUSTS WEDNESDAY OVER 15KTS. VFR THROUGH THE END             
OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.                                                         
POSSIBLE LIGHT FOG THURSDAY AND FRIDAY MORNING...OTHERWISE NO                   
AVIATION CONCERNS THROUGH SATURDAY.                                             
&&                                                                              
.MARINE...                                                                      
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...                                     
AS OF 3 PM TUESDAY...LIGHT WINDS WITH SEAS GENERALLY AROUND 2 FT                
THROUGH THIS EVENING AS GRADIENT REMAINS SLACK. SURFACE TROUGH                  
INDUCED BY AN H5 SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE OFFSHORE TONIGHT...WITH                   
INCREASING WINDS SHIFTING FROM S-SW LATE THIS AFTERNOON TO THE WEST             
AT AROUND 10 TO 15 KTS BY DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY. SEAS MAY PICK UP AN               
EXTRA FOOT AS A RESULT...UP TO AROUND 3 FT WELL OFFSHORE AFTER                  
MIDNIGHT. ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY MAY ALSO RESULT.                       
SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...                                
AS OF 3 PM TUESDAY...RATHER SLOPPY GRADIENT WITH WEAK HIGH                      
PRESSURE RIDGE TO OUR SOUTH...WILL RESULT IN TRANQUIL MARINE                    
CONDITIONS THRU THE PERIOD. WINDS LESS THAN 15 KT AND SEAS NO MORE              
THAN 3 FT.                                                                      
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...                                            
AS OF 3 PM TUESDAY...SWRLY WINDS AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT ON FRIDAY                
WILL INCREASE SOME AS THE APPROACH OF THE BOUNDARY INCREASES THE                
GRADIENT. HARD TO TELL IF ANY FLAGS WILL BE REQUIRED ON ACCOUNT OF              
THE WIND BUT THE COAST-PARALLEL FETCH WILL KEEP ANY OMINOUS SEAS                
JUST OUTSIDE OF THE FCST AREA. THIS FRONT DROPS IN FROM THE NORTH               
ON SATURDAY AND MAY STALL RIGHT OVER THE COASTLINE. THIS SHOULD                 
KEEP THE MODERATELY STRONG SWRLY WINDS OVER MOST OF THE WATERS BUT              
BACKDOOR COLD FRONTS ARE NOTORIOUSLY DIFFICULT TO PREDICT. SHOULD               
THE BOUNDARY STALL WHERE ANTICIPATED OR FARTHER NORTH THEN THE                  
CURRENT FCST SHOULD HOLD...IF THE BOUNDARY DROPS FARTHER SOUTH                  
THEN A TURN TO NORTHEAST CAN BE EXPECTED.                                       
&&                                                                              
.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
SC...NONE.                                                                      
NC...NONE.                                                                      
MARINE...NONE.                                                                  
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
NEAR TERM...RGZ                                                                 
SHORT TERM...RAS                                                                
LONG TERM...MBB                                                                 
AVIATION...DL                                                                   
</pre> nc                                                                       
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX                                          
1249 PM CDT TUE MAR 11 2008                                                     
.AVIATION...                                                                    
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THIS TAF PERIOD.  UPPER LEVEL LOW                   
DIGGING SEWD WILL TRACK ACROSS WEST CENTRAL TEXAS THIS                          
AFTERNOON...MOISTURE DEPRIVED SYSTEM MAY PRODUCE ISOLATED STORM                 
AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS. SURFACE WINDS WILL BE SOUTHERLY AT 5 TO 15                
KTS ACROSS CWFA. USING A BLEND GFS/NAM BROUGHT IN TEMPO GROUP FOR               
POSSIBLE AM CLOUD DECKS/BKN030 TO BKN050 ACROSS CWFA BETWEEN 11                 
AND 16Z.                                                                        
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1047 AM CDT TUE MAR 11 2008/                        
UPDATE...                                                                       
ADJUSTED DEW POINT TEMPERATURES TO REFLECT CURRENT OBS...THEN                   
INCREASED DAYTIME GRIDS TO REFLECT SLIGHTY HIGHER VALUES. RUC                   
SUPPORTS THESE VALUES INTO THE EARLY EVENING. DID NOT ADJUST                    
DAYTIME TEMPS.                                                                  
SHORT TERM...                                                                   
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 623 AM CDT TUE MAR 11 2008/                          
AVIATION...                                                                     
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT TWENTY FOUR                     
HOURS...EXCEPT AT KSOA AND KBBD WHERE 3-4 SM VISIBILITIES WILL BE               
POSSIBLE THIS MORNING AS SOME LIGHT FOG DEVELOPS. LIGHT WINDS                   
WILL BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY AT AROUND 10 TO 15 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON.             
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 354 AM CDT TUE MAR 11 2008/                          
DISCUSSION...                                                                   
CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS AS THE SURFACE HIGH SETTLED IN HAS                  
RESULTED IN VISIBILITIES STARTING TO LOWER ACROSS PART OF THE                   
AREA. WILL KEEP THE MENTION OF FOG IN THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS.                
IN THE UPPER LEVELS...ANOTHER COMPACT...BUT RATHER INTENSE                      
CIRCULATION IS CUTTING SOUTHEAST THROUGH NM. THIS LOW WILL MOVE                 
ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. RUC ANALYSIS SHOWS 500MB TEMPS DOWN TO                 
-20C OR COLDER. THIS MAY BE ENOUGH TO SET OFF A FEW ISOLATED                    
SHOWERS AND/OR THUNDERSTORMS IN THE CONCHO VALLEY AND NORTHERN                  
EDWARDS PLATEAU AS LAPSE RATES INCREASE TO 7.5 TO 8 C/KM.                       
TEMPERATURES WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA TODAY WITH SOUTHERLY                 
FLOW...INCREASING THERMAL RIDGING. THE WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE              
THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK...AS SOUTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES. AS                  
TEMPERATURES INCREASE...RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL DECREASE...               
AND WILL RESULT IN ELEVATED FIRE DANGER WHICH WILL BE DISCUSSED IN              
FURTHER DETAIL BELOW.                                                           
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO THE 80S BY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. ON                  
FRIDAY...SURFACE WINDS MAY INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY. AN UPPER LEVEL               
TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE REGION. AS THIS              
TAKES PLACE...A SURFACE LOW IS FORECAST TO DEEPEN AND TRANSLATE TO              
THE EAST OVER OK. THIS WILL INCREASE WESTERLY WINDS...AND WITH 700MB            
WINDS AT 40 OR 50 KNOTS COMBINED WITH GOOD MIXING...WE MAY SEE WINDS            
OF 25 TO 35 MPH WITH GUSTS AS HIGH AS 40 MPH. THIS WILL ALSO DRIVE              
THE DRYLINE EAST THROUGH THE AREA...AND WITH DOWNSLOPING WINDS...               
DRIER AIR...WE MAY SEE TEMPERATURES REACHING INTO THE UPPER 80S OR              
EVEN LOWER 90S IN SOME LOCATIONS. CHANCES FOR PRECIP ASSOCIATED                 
WITH THIS FRONT ARE NOT HIGH ENOUGH FOR POPS TO BE INSERTED. A                  
COLD FRONT WILL FOLLOW THIS SYSTEM SATURDAY...BRINGING TEMPERATURES             
CLOSER TO NORMAL FOR THE WEEKEND. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL LOW IS EXPECTED           
TO IMPACT THE AREA DURING THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK...GIVING THE              
AREA A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...DEPENDING ON THE                  
AMOUNT OF MOISTURE RETURN AND PATH OF THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM. HAVE              
KEPT THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIP IN FOR NOW...MAINLY OVER THE                   
EASTERN 2/3 OF THE CWA.                                                         
FIRE WEATHER...                                                                 
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE WORK WEEK                  
ACROSS THE AREA AS A THERMAL RIDGE INCREASES OVER THE AREA. FIRE                
WEATHER DANGERS WILL RISE AS MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES FALL.             
CURRENTLY...THE DAY WITH THE HIGHEST POTENTIAL FOR REACHING                     
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER VALUES IS FRIDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL              
MOVE ACROSS THE AREA DEEPENING A SURFACE LOW TO THE NORTH OF OUR                
AREA...AND BRING STRONG MID LEVEL WINDS WITH IT AS WELL. THIS                   
PATTERN IS FAVORABLE FOR PUSHING THE AREA INTO EXTREMELY CRITICAL               
VALUES CONCERNING FIRE WEATHER. MIXING WILL BE STRONG...AND MAY                 
RESULT IN WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH OR GREATER OUT OF THE WEST FOR MUCH              
OF THE AREA. THESE STRONG WEST WINDS WILL ALSO PUSH A DRYLINE                   
THROUGH THE AREA WHICH WILL CAUSE TEMPERATURES TO RISE INTO THE                 
UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90. THIS WILL ALLOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES TO               
FALL TO LESS THAN 10 PERCENT ACROSS WESTERN PARTS OF THE CWA.                   
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
ABILENE  67  49  77  53 /  10   0   0  10                                       
SAN ANGELO  67  46  76  53 /  10   0   0  10                                    
JUNCTION  69  46  75  54 /  10   0  10  10                                      
&&                                                                              
.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
NONE.                                                                           
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
99/99/12                                                                        
</pre> tx