AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ                                              
820 AM MST SUN NOV 27 2005                                                      
.SYNOPSIS...A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER COLORADO WILL CONTINUE            
TO PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS AND FEED MUCH COLDER AIR TO THE REGION. DRY              
CONDITIONS WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FOR THE START            
OF THE WEEK...WITH A SLOW WARMING TREND UNDER WEAK HIGH PRESSURE FOR            
THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK.                                                    
&&                                                                              
.DISCUSSION...HAVE RUN OUT AN UPDATE TO HANDLE SHORT-TERM TRENDS,               
BUT FOR THE MOST PART THE FORECAST AND CURRENT HEADLINES ARE HANDING            
THIS HIGHLY DYNAMIC SITUATION QUITE WELL. POWERHOUSE 140KT JET                  
EXTENDING DOWN TO 400MB IS KNIFING ACROSS NE AZ INTO INTO NM.                   
POTENTIAL VORTICITY CROSS SECTIONS SHOW THE ATTENDING TROPOPAUSE                
FOLD ALL THE WAY DOWN NEAR THE SURFACE OVER SE AZ. DEWPOINTS ARE                
CRASHING AS EXPECTED WITH RUC AND LAPS BOTH SHOWING SYNOPTIC                    
DOWNWARD VERTICAL MOTION ON THE ORDER OF 15 MICROBARS/SEC. 12Z KTUS             
SOUNDING SHOWED 90KT WINDS JUST ABOVE THE LOWERING SUBSIDENCE                   
INVERSION /AT ABOUT 14KFT/. AS EXPECTED BY OUR PREDECESSORS, VALLEY             
WINDS FELL OFF A BIT JUST BEFORE SUNRISE DUE TO A BIT OF DECOUPLING,            
BUT THEY'RE ALREADY STARTING TO PICK UP AGAIN. RAWS SITES ARE                   
CONFIRMING GUST POTENTIAL TO 50MPH IN THE E CWA, MOST LIKELY AROUND             
NOON BEFORE THE TIGHTEST GRADIENT SHIFTS E AND THE STRONG LOW LEVEL             
COLD ADVECTION STARTS TO SUPPRESS MIXING. THE SNOW FORECAST IN ZONE             
19 WORKED OUT WITH HANNAGAN MEADOW REPORTING 2 INCHES A SHORT TIME              
AGO. THE FORECAST UPDATE INCLUDES A MENTION OF BLOWING DUST IN ZONES            
30/35, A CHANGE TO JUST FLURRIES IN ZONE 19 AS THE SUBSIDENCE                   
INVERSION CONTINUES TO LOWER, AND SLIGHTLY HIGHER WINDS FROM KTUS W.            
HAVE ALREADY TALKED TO AZ DPS AND GRAHAM/COCHISE COUNTIES ABOUT                 
POTENTIAL FOR MORE SERIOUS BLOWING DUST. WE'LL BE KEEPING CLOSE TABS            
ON THAT BETWEEN KTUS AND THE NM LINE, ESPECIALLY SINCE THIS IS A BIG            
HOLIDAY TRAVEL DAY ON I-10.                                                     
NO CHANGES IN THE OUT PERIODS. WE'RE LIKELY TO SEE AT LEAST A DECENT            
FREEZE IN KTUS METRO TONIGHT, EVEN IF THE WINDS DO STAY UP A BIT                
THIS EVENING. LONG WARNING DURATION IS BECAUSE SHELTERED AREAS ARE              
LIKELY TO SEE A GOOD 6-8HRS OF <32F TEMPS AND PERHAPS LOWS IN THE               
MID 20S. WINTER HAS ARRIVED.                                                    
&&                                                                              
.FIRE WEATHER...WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE A PROBLEM TODAY E OF KTUS             
WITH WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS RUNNING 25 TO 35 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 50.             
DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE...AND SOME LOCATIONS WILL FALL BELOW 15            
PERCENT MINIMUM RH VALUES FOR A TIME THIS AFTERNOON. SINCE THERE IS             
ALSO A HIGH FIRE DANGER RATING...A RED FLAG WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED.            
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...TAF AND TWEBS ADEQUATELY COVER ALL SIGNIFICANT WEATHER              
AT KTUS.                                                                        
&&                                                                              
.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...WIND ADVISORY THROUGH 5 PM FOR               
 ZONES 019/030/035.                                                             
 RED FLAG WARNING THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING FOR EASTERN FIRE             
 WEATHER ZONE 148.                                                              
 FREEZE WARNING TONIGHT FOR ZONES 029/032/033.                                  
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
PYTLAK                                                                          
WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON                                                              
</PRE></TT></td>   az                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR                                         
958 AM CST SUN NOV 27 2005                                                      
.UPDATE...                                                                      
WILL GET OUT AN UPDATE TO GET RID OF THE MORNING SHOWERS. A LOT OF              
LOW CLOUDS ARE ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING BUT NO PRECIP IS                    
INDICATED ON KLZK RADAR. UPDATED TEMPERATURES IN THE GRIDS BASED ON             
CURRENT OBSERVATIONS AND TRENDS. MAX TEMPS LOOK FINE AT THIS POINT.             
COLD FRONT STILL IN CENTRAL KANSAS AND WESTERN OKLAHOMA MOVING EAST.            
AS THE LOW APPROACHES WINDS WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA AND THE               
LAKE WIND ADVISORY WILL CONTINUE. MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER               
CONTINUES ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. INCLUDED                  
MENTION OF SEVERE WEATHER IN THE AFTERNOON PERIOD AS STORMS MAY                 
GENERATE BY LATE AFTERNOON...22Z-23Z.                                           
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION.../ISSUED 315 AM CST SUN NOV 27 2005/                          
SHORT TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT                                     
PRECIPITATION TOOK A WHILE TO MAKE IT INTO THE CWA SATURDAY AND                 
LOOKING BACK...IT APPEARS THE GFS ACTUALLY HAD THE BETTER TIMING.               
WITH OVERRRUNING EVENT WRAPPING UP EARLY THIS MORNING...ITS TIME TO             
CONCENTRATE ON THE DEVELOPING CONVECTIVE EVENT SLATED FOR LATER THIS            
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. WHILE NAM AND GFS ARE BOTH DEEPER AND SLOWER             
WITH THE SYSTEM TONIGHT...STILL LIKE THE GFS SOLUTION. BASED ON THE             
CONTINUITY OF THE GFS AND ITS HANDLING OF THE SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH             
NOW...SEE NO REASON TO DEVIATE AWAY FROM IT.                                    
OVERRUNNING/WARM AIR ADVECTION PRECIPITATION CONTINUING TO MOVE                 
TOWARDS THE NORTH AS WEAKENING MID LEVEL WAVE OVER THE CENTRAL GULF             
COAST LIFTS OFF TO THE NORTHEAST. MAJORITY OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL            
BE OVER BY PRESS TIME BUT WILL STILL HOLD ON TO SOME MINIMAL POPS               
EARLY OVER THE NORTHEAST PART OF THE CWA AS RUC13 MODEL HOLDS ON TO             
SOME LIGHT PRECIP THROUGH MID MORNING. MAJORITY OF THE DAY WILL BE              
DRY AS AREA WILL BE BETWEEN SYSTEMS BUT RAIN CHANCES WILL BE                    
INCREASING ONCE AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON AS NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES                  
FROM THE WEST.                                                                  
MAJOR PLAYERS STILL SHOWING UP QUITE NICELY ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY              
THIS MORNING...MAINLY THE EXITING MID LEVEL WAVE AND THE VIGOROUS               
UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM CURRENTLY OVER THE ROCKIES. DEEP TROF EVIDENT                
JUST SOUTH OF THE 4 CORNERS WITH STRONG IMPULSE ROTATING THROUGH ITS            
BASE ACROSS NORTHERN ARIZONA/NEW MEXICO. SYSTEM STILL LOOSELY                   
ORGANIZED AT THE MOMENT BUT BUT EXPECTED TO QUICKLY INTENSIFY LATER             
THIS MORNING AS IT LIFTS OUT INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS.                           
LEE CYCLOGENESIS ALREADY UNDERWAY OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. SURFACE              
LOW ALSO EXPECTED TO DEEPEN RAPIDLY THIS MORNING IN RESPONSE TO THE             
EXIT REGION OF MID LEVEL JET MOVING THROUGH. SURFACE LOW EXPECTED TO            
BE IN NORTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA BY MID DAY AND RACING OFF INTO SOUTHERN            
IOWA BY MONDAY MORNING. PROJECTED PATH WOULD KEEP AREA IN WARM                  
SECTOR THE ENTIRE DAY WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS PROVIDING GOOD MOISTURE              
RETURN. GRADIENT BETWEEN SYSTEMS LOOKS PRETTY TIGHT AND WILL HOIST A            
LAKE WIND ADVISORY FOR THE ENTIRE CWA FOR TODAY.                                
EXPECTING SQUALL LINE TO DEVELOP IN ADVANCE OF THE ATTENDANT COLD               
FRONT THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS WHICH WILL THEN SWEEP              
THROUGH THE STATE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. STRONG DIFFLUENCE            
NOTED ALOFT ALONG WITH GOOD SURFACE CONVERGENCE BUT INSTABILITY                 
APPEARS MARGINAL AT BEST RIGHT NOW. HOWEVER...THERE IS SOME CONCERN             
THAT COULD CHANGE. WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER TODAY SHOULD KEEP                     
INSTABILITY IN CHECK BUT ANY SIGNIFICANT CLEARING COULD LEAD TO                 
EXPLOSIVE DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE FRONT. BIGGEST THREAT APPEARS TO BE             
STRAIGHT LINE WINDS WITH FAST MOVING LINE WHICH WILL BE LOCATED NEAR            
THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER NEAR MIDNIGHT.                                            
WILL END THE PCPN ACROSS THE AREA FROM WEST TO EAST SUNDAY EVENING              
AS FRONT MOVES THROUGH. AFTER SOME BRIEF CLEARING SUNDAY NIGHT/EARLY            
MONDAY...LARGE SLUG OF MOISTURE WILL ROTATE AROUND THE MAIN LOW                 
MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY AS TROF AXIS PASSES THROUGH.             
NO PRECIPITATION EXPECTED. TEMPERATURES WILL COOL OF INITIALLY                  
BEHIND THE FRONT WITH STRONGER COLD AIR AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THE                
PASSAGE OF THE TROF.                                                            
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS BY MIDDAY                  
TUESDAY FOR DRY AND COOL CONDITIONS TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL                  
MODERATE WEDNESDAY AS CENTER OF THE HIGH MOVES EAST AND WINDS RETURN            
TO A SOUTHERLY DIRECTION AND FLOW ALOFT STARTS TO BECOME MORE ZONAL.            
MAV NUMBERS LOOK PRETTY GOOD BUT WILL GO ABOVE GUIDANCE ON WEDNESDAY.           
LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY                                           
LARGE VORTEX TO OUR NORTHEAST WILL CONTINUE MOVING AWAY FROM THE                
STATE WHILE RIDGE AMPLIFIES TO OUR WEST. H5 RIDGE WILL BE JUST EAST             
OF AR BY 00Z SUN...AND IT WILL BE CLOSE TO THE EAST COAST BY SUNDAY             
MORNING. IN THE MEANTIME...ANOTHER LONG WAVE TROF WILL BE TRAVERSING            
THE ROCKIES. THE SURFACE PATTERN WILL BEGIN THE PERIOD WITH A COLD              
FRONT HAVING JUST EXITED THE SOUTHEAST CORNER OF THE STATE. HIGH                
PRESSURE WILL PUSH DRIER AIR OVER THE STATE FROM THE NORTH...WHILE              
HOLDING OFF GULF MOISTURE ALONG THE COAST BY 00Z FRIDAY. HIGHER RH              
VALUES WILL MOVE NORTH THROUGH LA OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING...              
BUT THEY DO NOT QUITE PUSH INTO THE STATE. I WILL HAVE TO HOLD OFF              
ANY MENTION OF RAIN UNTIL LATE IN THE DAY SATURDAY. TEMPS WILL BE               
CLOSE TO NORMAL THURSDAY...AND THEY WILL TAKE A DIP BELOW NORMAL FOR            
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.                                                            
&&                                                                              
.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM SUNDAY FOR ARZ003-ARZ004-ARZ005-                  
ARZ006-ARZ007-ARZ012-ARZ013-ARZ014-ARZ015-ARZ016-ARZ021-ARZ022-                 
ARZ023-ARZ024-ARZ025-ARZ030-ARZ031-ARZ032-ARZ033-ARZ034-ARZ037-                 
ARZ038-ARZ039-ARZ040-ARZ041-ARZ042-ARZ043-ARZ044-ARZ045-ARZ046-                 
ARZ047-ARZ052-ARZ053-ARZ054-ARZ055-ARZ056-ARZ057-ARZ062-ARZ063-                 
ARZ064-ARZ065-ARZ066-ARZ067-ARZ068-ARZ069.                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
51                                                                              
</PRE></TT></td>   ar                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO                                              
432 AM MST SUN NOV 27 2005                                                      
.SHORT TERM...                                                                  
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)                                                             
MAIN SHORT TERM CONCERNS CONTINUE TO BE EFFECTS OF PASSING SYSTEM.              
CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATING               
STRONG 140+ KT JET CORE EXTENDING FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST ACROSS             
THE SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN AND INTO CENTRAL NEW MEXICO...CARVING OUT              
A BROAD UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL ROCKIES ATTM.              
AT THE SFC...1-3MB 3 HRLY PRESSURE FALLS CONTINUING OUT AHEAD OF                
SYSTEM WITH MSAS DATA INDICATING 989MB LOW ACROSS THE OK PANHANDLE              
ATTM. REGIONAL RADARS INDICATING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS                  
ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SW MTS...ALONG WITH DEVELOPING ECHOES                    
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS ATTM.                                               
TODAY...MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON DEVELOPING                   
VERTICALLY STACKED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ACROSS THE OK PANHANDLE THIS             
MORNING...AS STRONG JET CORE CONTINUES TO MOVE INTO WESTERN TEXAS.              
THIS SYSTEM THEN CONTINUES TO LIFT OUT ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH                  
PLAINS...ALLOWING FOR STRONG CAA TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE EASTERN                  
PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON. IR IMAGERY INDICATING ENHANCED VERTICAL                  
MOTION ACROSS THE PLAINS ATTM...AND HAVE KEPT CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS             
ACROSS SOUTHEAST COLORADO THIS MORNING...WITH BEST POPS ACROSS THE              
EASTERN NEW MEXICO BORDER. BEST POPS SPREAD OUT ACROSS THE FAR SE               
PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON...WITH DEVELOPING DEFORMATION ZONE. GUSTY                 
NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS OF 30 TO 40 MPH EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON                
ACROSS THE PLAINS AS WELL...WITH STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT DEVELOPING            
AS STACKED LOW BEGINS TO MOVE EAST. WITH STRONG CAA...HAVE KEPT                 
TEMPS GENERALLY BELOW GUIDANCE...WITH HIGHS LATE THIS MORNING AND               
FALLING TEMPS INTO THE AFTERNOON. HAVE DECIDED TO CANCEL SNOW                   
ADVISORY FOR THE CENTRAL AND SW MTS (ZONES 58>60 AND 66)...AS                   
DESPITE GOOD CAA AND INSTABILITY...LIMITED MOISTURE WILL KEEP SNOW              
AMOUNTS BETWEEN 1 AND 4 INCHES OF FLUFFY SNOW.                                  
TONIGHT...VERTICALLY STACKED SYSTEM CONTINUES TO LIFT OUT ACROSS                
THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...WITH WINDS SLOWLY DIMINISHING FROM WEST TO            
EAST ACROSS THE THE PLAINS AS PRESSURE GRADIENT BEGINS TO RELAX.                
WITH COLD AND DRY AIR IN PLACE ACROSS THE PLAINS...WILL SEE CHILLY              
OVERNIGHT LOWS...THOUGH WINDS WILL KEEP TEMPS FROM DROPPING TOO                 
MUCH. CAA CONTINUES ACROSS THE CENTRAL MTS...THOUGH MOISTURE REMAINS            
LIMITED AND HAVE KEPT SCATTERED POPS IN PLACE WITH SOME LIGHT                   
ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT. -MW                                           
.LONG TERM...                                                                   
(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)                                                       
MAIN CHALLENGES ARE CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION...AND TEMPERATURES                 
IN THE LONG TERM.                                                               
MONDAY...LOOKS LIKE WINDS WILL STILL BE STRONG OVER THE FAR                     
SOUTHEASTERN PLAINS DURING THE DAY WITH 700MB WINDS STILL OVER 60               
KNOTS.  GUSTS AT THE SURFACE WILL LIKELY BE AROUND 40 MPH OR                    
INFREQUENTLY HIGHER. COLD AIR ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE CWFA WITH                   
READINGS FROM -7 TO -14 DEGREES AT 700MB.                                       
TUESDAY...FLOW FROM THE WEST-NORTHWEST BRINGS IN SOME WARMER AIR                
ALOFT SO BOOSTED HIGH TEMPERATURES AND KEPT THE SMALL CHANCES FOR               
SNOW SHOWERS IN THE FAVORED CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS.                    
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...MODELS HINT AT BRINGING IN SOME COOLER                 
AIR...BUT WITH LIMITED MOISTURE...LOOKS LIKE BEST CHANCES FOR                   
MEASURABLE SNOW WILL BE IN THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AGAIN.                         
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...UPPER FLOW TRANSITIONED TO MORE WEST THEN WEST-           
SOUTHWEST...WHICH WILL BRING IN MILDER AIR AGAIN...AND MAINLY DRY               
WEATHER...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS.  THIS IS IN              
ADVANCE OF NEXT COLD FRONT WHICH COULD MOVE IN ON SUNDAY.                       
&&                                                                              
.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                        
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</PRE></TT></td>   co                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL                                         
853 AM EST SUN NOV 27 2005                                                      
.DISCUSSION...A SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS LIFTING NEWD ACROSS THE GULF               
COAST STATES THIS MORNING. A WARM FRONT IS MOVING SLOWLY NWD ACROSS             
THE NRN GULF. AREA RADARS SHOW AN AREA OF RAIN IN THE REGION OF DPVA            
AHEAD OF THE SHORT WAVE. THIS AREA ALSO CORRESPONDS TO THE REGION OF            
MAXIMUM ISENTROPIC ASCENT OVER THE WARM FRONT ON THE 295 K SURFACE              
PER THE LATEST RUC. LIGHTNING HAS BEEN DIMINISHING STEADILY AS THE              
PRECIPITATION MOVES INTO A MORE STABLE AIR MASS. HOWEVER...AN                   
ISOLATED TS IS STILL POSSIBLE OVER THE GULF. ANY THAT DO MAKE IT TO             
THE COAST WILL BE ELEVATED OVER THE STABLE LAYER, SO DESPITE VERY               
FAVORABLE SHEAR PROFILES, SEVERE WEATHER IS BECOMING LESS OF A                  
CONCERN. THE SHORT WAVE WILL SWEEP QUICKLY EWD TODAY, AND THE                   
ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL WEAKEN WITH TIME. THEREFORE, WE EXPECT HIGHEST             
POPS THIS MORNING. WE WILL UPDATE THE FORECAST TO ACCOUNT FOR RADAR             
TRENDS AND TO REMOVE TS OVER INLAND AREAS.                                      
&&                                                                              
.MARINE...WINDS AND SEAS REMAIN AT ADVISORY LEVELS AT THE OFFSHORE              
BUOYS S OF THE WARM FRONT. N OF THE BOUNDARY, WINDS ARE LIKELY A BIT            
LIGHTER. OF COURSE, THERE'S NO DATA IN THIS AREA, BUT JUDGING BY                
WHAT WE'RE SEEING AT THE COASTAL ASOS STATIONS, THE CAUTION HEADLINE            
IS LIKELY SUFFICIENT FOR THE NEAR SHORE LEGS. WINDS WILL DIMINISH               
THIS AFTERNOON, BUT SEAS WILL TAKE A BIT LONGER INTO THIS EVENING TO            
DROP BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA. ONSHORE WINDS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED                
UNTIL COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE ON TUE, AND FOR A BRIEF TIME AFTER THE               
WIND SHIFT BEFORE, SUBSIDING LATER IN THE WEEK.                                 
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...MVFR CIGS AND VSBY SHOULD PREVAIL IN THE RAIN AREA                  
INCLUDING DHN AND PFN THIS MORNING, WITH OCCASIONAL DIPS INTO THE               
IFR RANGE. TO THE E, MORNING IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS WILL TAKE A BIT                
LONGER THAN NORMAL TO LIFT TODAY, WITH VSBY IMPROVING FIRST. CIGS               
WILL EVENTUALLY LIFT TO VFR THIS AFTERNOON AT ALL THE TERMINALS.                
OVERNIGHT, WE EXPECT A RETURN OF IFR/LIFR CIGS AND MVFR TO IFR VSBY             
AT THE INLAND TAF SITES, WITH VLIFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE AT ABY AND              
VLD.                                                                            
&&                                                                              
.FIRE WEATHER...NO CONCERNS UNTIL WED.                                          
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION...                                                             
144 AM EST SUN NOV 27 2005                                                      
SHORT TERM...AS THE S/W TO THE WEST ROTATES AROUND THE UPR LOW OVER             
THE CENTRAL CONUS...IT WILL LIFT TO OUR NORTH AND KEEP MOST OF THE              
ENERGY OUT OF OUR AREA. THIS WILL MOST LIKELY MEAN THAT THE LINE OF             
SHRA/TSRA WILL START TO DIMINISH BEFORE IT MAKES IT OVER INTO OUR               
AREA. STILL LOOKING FOR MID-RANGE CHANCE POPS HOWEVER IN OUR WESTERN            
AND NORTHERN ZONES TODAY...THEN DROPPING TO LOW END CHANCE FOR ALL              
AREAS TONIGHT. PRETTY CONFIDENT IN LOWERING POPS TONIGHT BUT NEXT               
QUESTION MARK IS GOING TO BE MONDAY. THE GFS AND NOW ETA HAVE BEEN              
MVG AN AREA OF TROPICAL MOISTURE NORTH THROUGH THE EASTERN                      
GULF...AND INTO OUR AREA EARLY MONDAY. THIS WOULD CALL FOR AN                   
INCREASE IN POPS ON MONDAY AHEAD OF THE FRONT THAT WILL KEEP POPS IN            
THE HIGH-END CHANCE TO LIKELY CATEGORY THROUGH TUES.                            
LONG TERM...MODELS HAVE BEEN PRETTY CONSISTENT AND AGREEABLE ON                 
FROPA THE FIRST PART OF TUES. LIKELY POPS THEREFORE MON NIGHT                   
THROUGH TUES MORNING...THEN TAPERING OFF WEST TO EAST BY TUES AFTN.             
TEMPS WILL DROP BACK TO AROUND NORMAL ON WEDNESDAY THEN REMAIN AT OR            
BELOW CLIMO THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH A REINFORCING SHOT OF COOL AND             
DRY AIR ON FRIDAY. ALTHOUGH THE MEX COULD BE OVER-DOING THE COLD AIR            
THIS WEEKEND...LOWS SHOULD BE DOWN INTO AT LEAST THE MID 30S BOTH               
SAT AND SUN.                                                                    
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
TALLAHASSEE  75 62 74 63 / 30 30 50 60                                          
PANAMA CITY  75 65 76 63 / 50 30 50 60                                          
DOTHAN       72 60 74 60 / 50 30 60 60                                          
ALBANY       73 60 74 61 / 40 30 50 60                                          
VALDOSTA     76 60 76 62 / 30 30 50 60                                          
CROSS CITY   80 61 77 64 / 20 30 50 60                                          
&&                                                                              
.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
AL...NONE.                                                                      
GA...NONE.                                                                      
FL...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY OFFSHORE WATERS.                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
CURRENT DISCUSSION...WOOL                                                       
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...MCNATT                                                    
</PRE></TT></td>   fl                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL                                  
745 PM CST SUN NOV 27 2005                                                      
.DISCUSSION FOR AFTERNOON GRIDS/ZONES...                                        
GOING FCST CONTS ON TRACK.  CURRENT SATLT/RADAR TRENDS SHOW SHORT               
TRANSVERSE BANDS OF PCPN LIFTING NWD IN INCRSG SLY FLOW/STG WAA AHD             
OF DEEPENING CYCLONE NOW OVR CNTRL KS...JUST S OF CNK.  EXPECT THIS             
TO CONT WELL INTO THIS EVENING WITH NO REAL ORGANIZED PCPN...JUST               
OCNL RPDLY MOVG SHWRS.  MORE ORGANIZED LN OF SQUALLY SHWRS ASSD WITH            
RMNTS OF SVR SQLN NOW INTENSIFYING ALG/AHD OF COLD FRONT FROM ERN               
KS-ERN OK DUE IN WELL AFTER MIDNIGHT.  AS MENTIONED...WAA WILL RMN              
STG...OR EVEN INCRS TNGT AHD OF SHWRS/PSBL TSTMS LATER TNGT...ESP IN            
AXIS OF STGR SFC PRES FALLS.  H85 PARCEL TRAJECTORIES FOR 24 HRS                
ENDING 12Z ORIGINATE OFF THE LA GULF COAST. WITH FCST ALREADY BCMG              
TOO VERBOSE...WILL JUST MENTION STEADY TEMPS...BUT EXPECT                       
TEMPS/DEWPTS TO SLOLY INCRS AFT MIDNIGHT.  AS CAREFULLY NOTED BY DR.            
RATZER IN PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...TREND IN GUID HAS BEEN TO SLOW FROPA            
JUST A BIT AND QUICK LOOK AT 18Z ETA CONTS TO SUPPORT FROPA IN SWRN             
FA JUST BY 15Z...AND OVR ALL BUT IND PORTION OF AREA BY 18Z.  THIS              
MAY ALLOW TEMPS TO JUMP A FEW DEG AFT LN OF SHLW CONVECTION MOVES               
THRU MON MRNG AND AREA GETS DRY SLOTTED.  MADE VERY FEW CHGS TO                 
INHERITED TEMP GRIDS...STILL REFLECTING FALLING TEMPS DURG DAY...BUT            
NOT AS SHARPLY AS EXPECTED YDY.                                                 
MON NGT-TUES...WRAP ARND CLOUDINESS AND PCPN TO MOVE IN FROM W AS               
PREVIOUSLY FCST...AND LTL OR NO CHGS MADE TO                                    
GRIDS...HOWEVER...EXPECT VERY LTL OF CAA WRAP ARND PCPN TO BE LIQUID            
SO AGAIN...FOR THE SAKE OF BREVITY...WILL JUST SAY LGT SNW/FLRYS.               
GIVEN PATH OF SFC LOW...BEST CHC FOR ANY MEAS WRAP ARND PCPN WILL BE            
MORE TO THE W AND N...SO WILL JUST MENTION CHC FLRYS S OF RUFLY AS              
LASALLE CTY-SRN COOK CTY LN BOTH MON NGT-TUES.                                  
NEXT QUESTION SURROUNDS CLIPPER SYS WED NGT-THUR.  LTL CHG MADE HERE            
AS WELL XCP TO PARE SNOW MENTION BACK OVER SRN 1/2 CWA BASED ON GFS             
QPF THAT SUGGESTS GREATER MOISTURE OUTPUT WILL BE TO N...AND BASED              
ON PERSISTENCE HAVE NO REASON TO DOUBT THIS.                                    
THEREFORE...WILL KEEP CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW LATE WED NGT AND THURSDAY            
AS NEXT SHORT WAVE TROUGH PASSES THROUGH AT THAT TIME. ALSO WILL                
KEEP TEMPS COLDER LATE WEEK AS NEXT BATCH OF CP AIR SLIDES ACROSS               
UPPER MIDWEST/GRTLKS.                                                           
MERZLOCK                                                                        
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
THE LOW OVER CENTRAL KANSAS IS FORECAST TO MOVE NORTH INTO IOWA BY              
00 UTC TUESDAY. THIS IS BASED ON ETA 18 UTC RUN. HOWEVER...SURFACE              
ANALYSIS AT 15 UTC AND 22 UTC SHOW A FASTER MOVEMENT OF THE LOW.                
WILL TAKE A COMPROMISE AND FORECAST THE LOW IN IOWA BY 17 UTC. THIS             
WILL KEEP THE SOUTH WIND OVER THE TAFS. WILL KEEP THE IFR CEILINGS              
THROUGH 15 UTC MONDAY. THE ETA SHOWS RAPID INCREASE IN VORTICITY                
AT 500 MB OVER NORTHEAST ILLINOIS FROM 09 UTC TO 12 UTC. THE STRONG             
POSITIVE VORTICITY ADVECTION IS VERIFIED BY LARGE NEGATIVE OMEGA                
FORECAST AT 700 MB AT 12 UTC. WILL KEEP THE SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST             
FROM 10 TO 15 UTC OVER ALL THE TAFS. THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE AND             
WE WILL EXAMINE THE INSTABILITY WHEN THE 00 UTC RUC AND ETA MODELS              
ARE AVAILABLE. RIGHT NOW THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THE              
FORECASTS. WILL WATCH WHAT HAPPENS IN IOWA AS VORTICITY MAXIMUM                 
APPROACHES.                                                                     
&&                                                                              
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
.IL...NONE.                                                                     
.IN...NONE.                                                                     
.LM...GALE WARNING MONDAY MORNING THRU MONDAY NIGHT.                            
      SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IL NEARSHORE THRU TONIGHT.                           
$$                                                                              
</PRE></TT></td>   il                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE                                               
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS                                             
940 PM CST SUN NOV 27 2005                                                      
.UPDATE...                                                                      
WILL UPDATE TO MAKE ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO GOING FORECAST.                   
VERY INTENSE SURFACE LOW CURRENTLY SITUATED NEAR SLN. THE SEVERE                
STORMS OVER SE KS ASSOCIATED WITH DRY LINE/JET STREAK MOVED OUT OF              
THE AREA AROUND SUNSET. MEANWHILE OVER WESTERN KANSAS BLIZZARD LIKE             
CONDITIONS HAVE PERSISTED THE LAST FEW HOURS WITH SOME PLACES                   
GUSTING TO GREATER THAN 50 MPH WITH SNOW. THE WINTER WEATHER                    
ADVISORY WE CURRENTLY HAVE IN EFFECT STILL LOOKS GOOD. WINDS AT RSL             
HAVE ALREADY INCREASED TO GREATER THAN 40 MPH. IT LOOKS LIKE THE                
LATEST ETA AND ESPECIALLY RUC GUIDANCE HAVE FINALLY CAUGHT UP TO THE            
SPEED OF THIS SYSTEM. AT THIS TIME PREFER THE LATEST RUC FOR SOME OF            
THE FINER FEATURES.                                                             
OMEGA AT -15C ALONG WITH SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY SEEM TO BE                   
MAXIMIZED OVER CENTRAL KS BETWEEN 00Z-06Z. IN ADDITION THE BEST                 
FRONTOGENESIS WILL BE FOCUSED IN THE LOWER LAYERS(850-800MB) WHICH              
IS BELOW THE PRIME SNOW GROWTH LAYER. SO HAVE A FEELING THE BIG                 
STORY OVER CENTRAL KS MAY NOT BE SNOWFALL TONIGHT...BUT THE STRONG              
WINDS COMBINED WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW WHICH IS WHAT THE WINTER WEATHER            
ADVISORY IS PERFECT FOR.                                                        
&&                                                                              
LAWSON                                                                          
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 357 PM CST SUN NOV 27 2005/                         
DISCUSSION...                                                                   
COMPLEX SHORT-TERM, AS AN INTENSE LATE FALL STORM SYSTEM PRODUCES A             
VARIETY OF WEATHER, RANGING FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OUT AHEAD OF              
IT, TO HEAVY SNOW AND NEAR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS BEHIND IT. TORNADIC              
SUPERCELLS WILL EXIT SOUTHEAST KANSAS SHORTLY, WITH MASSIVE DRY SLOT            
MOVING IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST. WILL CANCEL MUCH OF THE TORNADO WATCH             
AT ISSUANCE TIME, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF EXTREME SOUTHEAST KANSAS,               
BUT MAY SHAVE THE REST OFF SHORTLY THEREAFTER.                                  
MID-LEVEL DRY SLOT WILL SHUT OFF A BRUNT OF THE PRECIPITATION                   
THROUGH MIDNIGHT, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF CENTRAL KANSAS. THEREAFTER,             
LIGHT WRAP AROUND PRECIPITATION SHOULD MOVE EAST ACROSS THE CWA, AS             
650-550 MB FRONTOGENESIS AND TROWAL LINGERS IN WAKE OF THE STORM                
SYSTEM. QUESTION WILL BE RAIN/SNOW LINE AND RESULTANT ACCUMULATIONS.            
MOST MODELS HAVE BEEN A BIT TOO WARM THIS AFTERNOON (AT LEAST AT THE            
SURFACE), AS HILL CITY AND RUSSELL ARE ALREADY REPORTING LIGHT                  
RAIN/SNOW MIX. THINK RAIN/SNOW LINE WILL PROGRESS SLOWLY                        
EAST/SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT. SURFACE                        
TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLOW TO REACH FREEZING, AS UPSTREAM AIR IS NOT             
THAT COLD, SO THINKING SNOW WILL MIX WITH RAIN FOR QUITE A WHILE AT             
THE ONSET...HENCE ACCUMULATIONS WILL NOT GET GOING UNTIL MID-LATE               
EVENING.                                                                        
ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE TRICKY, AS GROUND/SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL               
MOSTLY BE ABOVE FREEZING, AND DRY SLOT COULD CONCEIVABLY END BRUNT              
OF PRECIPITATION EVERYWHERE BUT CENTRAL KANSAS. NEVERTHELESS,                   
THINKING AROUND 2 INCHES NEAR RUSSELL, WITH 0.5-1 INCH FROM SALINA              
TO HUTCHINSON, AND ONLY T-0.5 INCH FOR WICHITA. COMBINED WITH THE               
STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS, WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN AFFECT 6 PM THIS             
EVENING UNTIL NOON MONDAY FOR CENTRAL KANSAS COUNTIES TO ACCOUNT                
MAINLY FOR REDUCED VISIBILITIES IN SNOW/BLOWING SNOW. DECIDED TO                
CANCEL ADVISORY FOR SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS, AS DON'T THINK                        
SNOW/VISIBILITIES WILL HIT ADVISORY CRITERIA. HOWEVER, VISIBILITIES             
COULD BE REDUCED SOMEWHAT IN SNOW/BLOWING SNOW LATER TONIGHT AND                
MONDAY ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL AND PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST KANSAS.                   
DECIDED TO HOLD OFF ON WIND ADVISORY FOR THE CWA, AS IT WILL BE                 
MARGINAL MOST AREAS. HOWEVER, NORTHWEST WINDS TONIGHT IN WAKE OF                
DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE WILL BE SUSTAINED AT 20-25 MPH WITH GUSTS TO             
35 MPH. WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED.                                                
LINGERING SNOW/BLOWING SNOW FOR MONDAY, AS SECOND PIECE OF ENERGY               
ROTATES TO THE SOUTHWEST OF MAIN UPPER LOW PRESSURE OVER IOWA.                  
STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE. NIGHT SHIFT MAY NEED TO LOOK              
INTO THE POSSIBILITY OF A WIND ADVISORY.                                        
DID NOT HAVE MUCH TIME TO LOOK BEYOND THE FIRST FEW DAYS, SO NO                 
MAJOR CHANGES MADE TO THE REST OF THE FORECAST. COOL CONDITIONS TO              
PERSIST FROM HERE ON OUT, WITH AN INTERESTING SYSTEM ON                         
WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT THAT MAY NEED TO BE WATCHED, BUT                      
INDICATIONS ARE THAT MAJORITY OF ANY PRECIPITATION SHOULD REMAIN                
NORTH OF THE CWA.                                                               
KLEINSASSER                                                                     
&&                                                                              
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                 
WICHITA-KICT    33  38  23  42 /  40  20   5   5                                
HUTCHINSON      32  36  22  41 /  50  30   5   5                                
NEWTON          33  37  22  41 /  40  30   5   5                                
ELDORADO        35  38  23  41 /  40  20   5   5                                
WINFIELD-KWLD   35  41  25  44 /  40  20   0   5                                
RUSSELL         28  34  20  39 /  80  40   5   5                                
GREAT BEND      29  35  21  40 /  70  40   5   5                                
SALINA          31  35  20  38 /  60  40  10   5                                
MCPHERSON       32  36  21  40 /  50  40  10   5                                
COFFEYVILLE     38  41  25  44 /  40  20   5   5                                
CHANUTE         36  41  24  41 /  40  20  10   5                                
IOLA            36  40  24  41 /  50  20  10   5                                
&&                                                                              
.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON MONDAY FOR KSZ032-033-047>050.               
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</PRE></TT></td>   ks                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
1008 PM EST SUN NOV 27 2005                                                     
.UPDATE...                                                                      
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW AN IMPRESSIVE DEEPENING               
SYSTEM OVER THE CNTRL PLAINS...AND 00Z SOUNDINGS BACK UP THE                    
IMPRESSIVE LOOK ON WATER VAPOR AS 12HR 500MB HEIGHT FALLS OF 180M               
WERE NOTED AT KOUN IN OK (250M OVER THE LAST 24HRS). STRONG FORCING             
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM HAS GENERATED TSRA AS FAR NE AS IA THIS             
EVENING. CLOSER TO HOME...THE STRONG SRLY FLOW AHEAD OF THIS DEEPENING          
SYSTEM HAS BROUGHT AN UNSEASONABLY MOIST AIRMASS N INTO THE WRN                 
GREAT LAKES. 00Z KGRB SOUNDINGS INDICATED PRECIPITABLE WATER OF 0.89            
INCHES OR 273PCT OF NORMAL. WITH ABUNDANT MOISTURE...WEAK LEAD                  
SHORTWAVE TROF EXTENDING FROM NW WI ACROSS LWR MI INTO OH IS                    
PRODUCING SCT TO NMRS SHRA AHEAD OF IT. IN THE WAKE OF THIS                     
SHORTWAVE...THERE IS A BREAK IN THE PCPN ACROSS ECNTRL MN INTO                  
CNTRL/SRN WI. OTHERWISE...LOW STRATUS AND THICKENING FOG ARE THE                
RULE ACROSS UPPER MI THIS EVENING WITH SEVERAL OBSERVATION SITES                
REPORTING 1/4-1/2SM VSBY.                                                       
GOING FCST IS IN GREAT SHAPE FOR THE OVERNIGHT...REFLECTING A TREND             
TOWARD LESS SHRA COVERAGE IN THE WAKE OF PASSING SHORTWAVE AND DENSE            
FOG WHICH SHOULD ONLY BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD AS SHRA COVERAGE                   
DIMINISHES. SFC DWPTS CONTINUE TO RISE TO THE S WITH READINGS ABOVE             
40F SPREADING N THRU WI TOWARD SRN UPPER MI ATTM. AS THIS                       
INCREASINGLY MOIST AIR SPREADS OVER THE LINGERING SNOW COVER...FOG              
WILL CONTINUE TO THICKEN...ESPECIALLY WHEN IT IS NOT RAINING.                   
THUS...DENSE FOG ADVY IS ON TRACK. HOWEVER...FOG WILL PROBABLY NOT              
BE AS DENSE ALONG THE LAKE MICHIGAN SHORELINE DUE TO LACK OF SNOW               
COVER AND ALONG THE LAKE SUPERIOR SHORELINE DUE TO DOWNSLOPING FLOW             
AT MANY LOCATIONS. SINCE PCPN MAY BE MORE OF A DZ THAN SHRA AFTER               
SHORTWAVE PASSES...WILL INCLUDE DZ IN UPDATE. TEMPS LOOK GOOD WITH A            
VERY SLOW RISING TREND THRU THE NIGHT.                                          
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION... ISSUED AT 435 PM EST                                        
MAIN FCST CONCERNS ARE RAIN/FOG TRENDS TSRA CHANCES FOLLOWED BY                 
SN/LES POTENTIAL MID AND LATE WEEK.                                             
WV IMAGERY...12Z RAOBS AND RUC ANALYSIS INDICATED A VIGOROUS MID                
LEVEL LOW INTO THE SRN PLAINS. ONE SHRTWV WAS LIFTING NE THROUGH SRN            
WI WHILE ANOTHER WAS ON ITS HEELS OVER NRN MO IN ADVANCE OF 120 KT              
300 MB JET. AT THE SFC...A 989 MB TROF EXTENDED FROM CNTRL KS INTO              
THE TX/OK PANHANDLE. A WARM FRONT WAS DRAPED FROM SRN MN THROUGH SRN            
WI TO SRN LWR MI WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S SOUTH             
OF THE FRONT. THE COMBINATION OF QVECTOR CONV AND 295K-300K                     
ISENTROPIC LIFT AHEAD OF THE WI SHRTWV IN AN UNSEASONABLY MOIST                 
AIRMASS(PWAT NEAR 1.0 INCH) SUPPORTED WIDESPREAD RAIN ACRS NRN WI               
AND UPR MI. ALTHOUGH WARM/MOIST ADVECTION HAS BROUGHT DEWPOINTS                 
INTO THE MID AND UPPER 30S WITH AREAS OF FOG...THE RAIN HAS HELPED              
LIMIT DENSE FOG FORMATION SO FAR.                                               
TONIGHT...RADAR/SATELLITE TRENDS AND 18Z RUC SUGGEST PERIODS OF RAIN            
SHOWERS TO CONTINUE THIS EVENING AS WI SHRTWV GIVES WAY TO                      
ADDITIONAL FORCING FROM NEXT UPSTREAM SHRTWV. EXPECT RAIN TO BECOME             
MORE SCATTERED BY 03Z-06Z AS THE SECOND SHRTWV LIFTS OUT. AS THE                
PCPN TAPERS OFF EXPECT FOG TO BECOME MORE DENSE AND WIDESPREAD.                 
SO...DENSE FOG ADVY WAS ISSUED.                                                 
MON...EXPECT DENSE FOG TO LINGER INTO THE MORNING UNTIL RAIN AGAIN              
BECOMES MORE WIDESPREAD TOWARD AFTERNOON AS QVECTOR CONV AND UPR LVL            
DIV AS THE UPR LVL JET LIFTS OVER LK MI TOWARD ERN UPR MI. GOING                
TSRA CHANCES ALSO LOOK ON TRACK GIVEN WITH STRONG FORCING AND                   
LIKELIHOOD OF ELEVATED CAPE VCNTY OF THE APPROACHING JET. ONSET OF              
RAIN SHOULD HELP IMPROVE VISIBILITIES SOMEWHAT EVEN THOUGH WAA COULD            
PUSH TEMPS/DEWPOINTS WELL INTO THE MID AND UPPER 40S.                           
MON NIGHT INTO TUE...THE SLOWER NAM/UKMET SUPPORTED BY THE CMC MDLS             
WITH A TRACK A BIT FARTHER WEST THAN THE GFS WAS PREFERRED GIVEN THE            
INTENSITY THE LOW. THE DRY SLOT SHOULD EDGE INTO THE AREA WITH MID              
LVL DRYING PROMOTING MAINLY AREAS OF -DZ/-RA. AGAIN DELAYED                     
CHANGEOVER TO SNOW...PER NAM SNDGS/ FCST FREEZING LVLS. ARRIVAL OF              
COLDER AIR WITH 850 MB TEMPS DROPPING OFF TO THE -7C TO -10C RANGE              
IN THE AFTERNOON WHILE DEEP MOISTURE AND CYCLONIC FLOW IS IN PLACE              
COULD BRING AN INCH OR TWO OF LAKE ENHANCED SNOW TO THE WEST WHILE              
THE REST OF THE AREA WOULD SEE LESS THAN AN INCH FROM WRAP-AROUND               
PCPN WITH DELAYED CHANGEOVER TO SNOW.                                           
TUE NIGHT INTO WED...ENOUGH COLD AIR POURS INTO THE AREA FOR NW FLOW            
LES TO BRING A FEW INCHES OF SNOW AS H8 TEMPS FALL TO AROUND                    
-12C/14C...PER UKMET/GFS. LIMITING FACTOR FOR BETTER ACCUMULATIONS              
WILL BE DEPARTING DEEP MOISTURE AND MODEST INVERSION HGTS...LIKELY              
IN THE 4K-5K FT RANGE.                                                          
THU-SUN...FCST LEANED TOWARD THE 00Z/27 ECMWF...PER HPC...WHICH HAS             
BEEN LEADER IN SUGGESTING A SLOWER MORE BLOCKED PATTERN                         
INTO THE WEEKEND. EARLY IN THE PERIOD...THE GLBL MDLS STILL SUGGEST             
A WAVE MAY BRUSH THE AREA WITH A SHRTWV AND ASSOCIATED SFC LOW                  
PRODUCING AN AREA OF LIGHT SNOW. A DECENT NW FLOW LES REGIME WILL               
FOLLOW AND PERSIST INTO THE WEEKEND WITH 850 MB TEMPS FALLING TO THE            
-16C TO -18C RANGE. UNCERTAINTY IS LARGE BY THIS WEEKEND WITH                   
MDLS/ENSEMBLES DISPLAYING WIDE RANGE OF POSSIBILITIES IN HANDLING               
FATE OF THE MID LVL LOW OVER SE CANADA. PREFERRED ECMWF SOLUTIONS               
WOULD SUGGEST THAT MORE N OR NW LES WOULD CONTINUE WHILE GFS WOULD              
BRING IN RETURN OF WAA AFTER SFC RDG PASSES THROUGH.                            
&&                                                                              
.MQT...WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                           
 DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 12 PM EST /11 AM CST/ MONDAY FOR                      
      MIZ001>007-009>014-084-085.                                               
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
ROLFSON (UPDATE)                                                                
JLB (PREV DISCUSSION)                                                           
</PRE></TT></td>   mi                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
435 PM EST SUN NOV 27 2005                                                      
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
MAIN FCST CONCERNS ARE RAIN/FOG TRENDS TSRA CHANCES FOLLOWED BY                 
SN/LES POTENTIAL MID AND LATE WEEK.                                             
WV IMAGERY...12Z RAOBS AND RUC ANALYSIS INDICATED A VIGOROUS MID                
LEVEL LOW INTO THE SRN PLAINS. ONE SHRTWV WAS LIFTING NE THROUGH SRN            
WI WHILE ANOTHER WAS ON ITS HEELS OVER NRN MO IN ADVANCE OF 120 KT              
300 MB JET. AT THE SFC...A 989 MB TROF EXTENDED FROM CNTRL KS INTO              
THE TX/OK PANHANDLE. A WARM FRONT WAS DRAPED FROM SRN MN THROUGH SRN            
WI TO SRN LWR MI WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S SOUTH             
OF THE FRONT. THE COMBINATION OF QVECTOR CONV AND 295K-300K                     
ISENTROPIC LIFT AHEAD OF THE WI SHRTWV IN AN UNSEASONABLY MOIST                 
AIRMASS(PWAT NEAR 1.0 INCH) SUPPORTED WIDESPREAD RAIN ACRS NRN WI               
AND UPR MI. ALTHOUGH WARM/MOIST ADVECTION HAS BROUGHT DEWPOINTS                 
INTO THE MID AND UPPER 30S WITH AREAS OF FOG...THE RAIN HAS HELPED              
LIMIT DENSE FOG FORMATION SO FAR.                                               
TONIGHT...RADAR/SATELLITE TRENDS AND 18Z RUC SUGGEST PERIODS OF RAIN            
SHOWERS TO CONTINUE THIS EVENING AS WI SHRTWV GIVES WAY TO                      
ADDITIONAL FORCING FROM NEXT UPSTREAM SHRTWV. EXPECT RAIN TO BECOME             
MORE SCATTERED BY 03Z-06Z AS THE SECOND SHRTWV LIFTS OUT. AS THE                
PCPN TAPERS OFF EXPECT FOG TO BECOME MORE DENSE AND WIDESPREAD.                 
SO...DENSE FOG ADVY WAS ISSUED.                                                 
MON...EXPECT DENSE FOG TO LINGER INTO THE MORNING UNTIL RAIN AGAIN              
BECOMES MORE WIDESPREAD TOWARD AFTERNOON AS QVECTOR CONV AND UPR LVL            
DIV AS THE UPR LVL JET LIFTS OVER LK MI TOWARD ERN UPR MI. GOING                
TSRA CHANCES ALSO LOOK ON TRACK GIVEN WITH STRONG FORCING AND                   
LIKELIHOOD OF ELEVATED CAPE VCNTY OF THE APPROACHING JET. ONSET OF              
RAIN SHOULD HELP IMPROVE VISIBILITIES SOMEWHAT EVEN THOUGH WAA COULD            
PUSH TEMPS/DEWPOINTS WELL INTO THE MID AND UPPER 40S.                           
MON NIGHT INTO TUE...THE SLOWER NAM/UKMET SUPPORTED BY THE CMC MDLS             
WITH A TRACK A BIT FARTHER WEST THAN THE GFS WAS PREFERRED GIVEN THE            
INTENSITY THE LOW. THE DRY SLOT SHOULD EDGE INTO THE AREA WITH MID              
LVL DRYING PROMOTING MAINLY AREAS OF -DZ/-RA. AGAIN DELAYED                     
CHANGEOVER TO SNOW...PER NAM SNDGS/ FCST FREEZING LVLS. ARRIVAL OF              
COLDER AIR WITH 850 MB TEMPS DROPPING OFF TO THE -7C TO -10C RANGE              
IN THE AFTERNOON WHILE DEEP MOISTURE AND CYCLONIC FLOW IS IN PLACE              
COULD BRING AN INCH OR TWO OF LAKE ENHANCED SNOW TO THE WEST WHILE              
THE REST OF THE AREA WOULD SEE LESS THAN AN INCH FROM WRAP-AROUND               
PCPN WITH DELAYED CHANGEOVER TO SNOW.                                           
TUE NIGHT INTO WED...ENOUGH COLD AIR POURS INTO THE AREA FOR NW FLOW            
LES TO BRING A FEW INCHES OF SNOW AS H8 TEMPS FALL TO AROUND                    
-12C/14C...PER UKMET/GFS. LIMITING FACTOR FOR BETTER ACCUMULATIONS              
WILL BE DEPARTING DEEP MOISTURE AND MODEST INVERSION HGTS...LIKELY              
IN THE 4K-5K FT RANGE.                                                          
THU-SUN...FCST LEANED TOWARD THE 00Z/27 ECMWF...PER HPC...WHICH HAS             
BEEN LEADER IN SUGGESTING A SLOWER MORE BLOCKED PATTERN                         
INTO THE WEEKEND. EARLY IN THE PERIOD...THE GLBL MDLS STILL SUGGEST             
A WAVE MAY BRUSH THE AREA WITH A SHRTWV AND ASSOCIATED SFC LOW                  
PRODUCING AN AREA OF LIGHT SNOW. A DECENT NW FLOW LES REGIME WILL               
FOLLOW AND PERSIST INTO THE WEEKEND WITH 850 MB TEMPS FALLING TO THE            
-16C TO -18C RANGE. UNCERTAINTY IS LARGE BY THIS WEEKEND WITH                   
MDLS/ENSEMBLES DISPLAYING WIDE RANGE OF POSSIBILITIES IN HANDLING               
FATE OF THE MID LVL LOW OVER SE CANADA. PREFERRED ECMWF SOLUTIONS               
WOULD SUGGEST THAT MORE N OR NW LES WOULD CONTINUE WHILE GFS WOULD              
BRING IN RETURN OF WAA AFTER SFC RDG PASSES THROUGH.                            
&&                                                                              
.MQT...WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                           
DENSE FOG ADVISORY FROM 10 PM EST /9 PM CST/ THIS EVENING TO 12 PM              
EST /11 AM CST/ MONDAY FOR                                                      
MIZ001-MIZ002-MIZ003-MIZ004-MIZ005-MIZ006-MIZ007-MIZ009-MIZ010-MIZ011           
-MIZ012-MIZ013-MIZ014-MIZ084-MIZ085.                                            
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
JLB                                                                             
</PRE></TT></td>   mi                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
1204 PM EST SUN NOV 27 2005                                                     
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
THE MAIN CONCERN WITH THIS FORECAST UPDATE IS THE CHANCE OF RAIN OR             
FREEZING DRIZZLE TODAY.                                                         
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC/NAM SHOWING A CLOSED LOW OVER NORTHEAST             
NEW MEXICO AND A RIDGE EXTENDING FROM MID ATLANTIC STATES NORTHWEST             
THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT LAKES INTO SOUTHERN MANITOBA. WEAK SHORTWAVE            
ARE BEING EJECTED OUT AHEAD OF THE NEW MEXICO LOW AND SAILING                   
THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. SURFACE ANALYSIS DEPICT A HIGH OVER              
MAINE AND A DEEP LOW OVER SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. A WARM FRONT                    
STRETCHES EAST FROM THIS LOW THROUGH SOUTHERN WISCONSIN AND LOWER               
MICHIGAN. MOISTURE OVERRUNNING AND ISENTROPIC ASCENT NORTH OF THIS              
FRONT IS GENERATE SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS THE WEST HALF OF THE            
U.P.                                                                            
A WEAK SHORTWAVE EJECTED OUT AHEAD OF THE LOW OVER SOUTH CENTRAL                
CONUS WILL SWEEP INTO WISCONSIN AND LOWER MICHIGAN THIS AFTERNOON.              
THE ACCOMPANYING WARM FRONT WILL MAKE ITS WAY INTO UPPER MICHIGAN               
THIS AFTERNOON. MORNING RAOBS AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW NEARLY                
SATURATED CONDITONS FROM SURFACE TO 500MB ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE                
FRONT. THE SHORTWAVE ENERGY AND THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO GENERATE             
SHOWERS OVER THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON. WARM AIR ADVECTION               
WILL CHANGE ALL THIS OVER TO RAIN. 850MB TEMPERATURE IS AT 4C AND               
WILL INCREASE TO 7C BY LATE AFTERNOON CREATING A STRONG SURFACE BASE            
INVERSION. FOG WILL ALSO FORM WITH THE RAIN AND WARM AIR                        
ADVECTION...SO WILL LEAVE THESE IN THE FORECAST. ALL SURFACE                    
REPORTING STATION INDICATE THAT THE TEMPERATURE IS AT OR ABOVE                  
FREEZING...SO WILL NOT EXTEND THE FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY.                       
TEMPERATURES ARE WELL ON THEIR WAY TO AROUND 40F FOR A HIGH THIS                
AFTERNOON. THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE ALONG LAKE MICHIGAN               
SHORE WHERE THE LAKE TEMPERATURE IS AROUND 40 AT THIS TIME AND THE              
WINDS ARE ONSHORE.                                                              
THE SHORTWAVE OVER WISCONSIN AND LOWER MICHIGAN WILL SLIDE ACROSS               
THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT AS THE WARM FRONT MOVES INTO LAKE                     
SUPERIOR. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH THE NIGHT. A                
SURFACE BASE INVERSION WILL CONTINUE AS WELL. THIS WILL KEEP RAIN               
AND FOG IN PLACE THROUGH THE NIGHT. DO NOT PLAN TO MAKE ANY CHANGES             
TO THE NIGHTTIME FORECAST AT THIS TIME.                                         
WILL UPDATE TO THE ZFP FOR WORDING AND TO REMOVE THE ADVISORY INFO.             
&&                                                                              
.MQT...WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
DLG                                                                             
</PRE></TT></td>   mi                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN                              
1011 PM CST SUN NOV 27 2005                                                     
.UPDATE...                                                                      
984 MB SFC LO CURRENTLY LOCATED IN ERN KS...WITH ASSOC CLOSED UPR               
LO /EVIDENT IN SAT IMAGERY AND LOCAL PROFILER DATA/ OVER S CNTRL                
NE/N CNTRL KS. PLAN VIEW PLOTS OF AREA 00Z RAOB DATA INDICATE THAT              
THE MOST LIKELY TRACK OF THE SFC LO IS A DUE NEWRD PATH THRU NERN               
KS/SERN NE AND INTO CNTRL IA AND SERN MN /PER ANALYSIS OF GREATEST              
INCR IN HEIGHT FALLS WITH HEIGHT/...WHICH COINCIDES WITH THE                    
LATEST 00Z RUN OF THE NAM.                                                      
PERIODS OF SHRA...ASSOC WITH WEAK LO LAYER WAA...HAVE INCR AGAIN                
ACRS THE FA AFTER A BRIEF RESPITE EARLIER THIS EVE. LTG DATA                    
SHOWING A FEW LTG STRIKES VERY NEAR THE MN/IA BRDR...AND COMBINED               
WITH AN INSPECTION OF LATEST K INDEX ANALYSIS AND THICKNESS                     
PATTERNS...ELECTED TO INTRODUCE ISO TSRA ACRS S CNTRL MN TNGT AND               
TRANSITIONING INTO W CNTRL WI BY MRNG.                                          
PRECIP TYPE CONT TO BE AN ADVENTURE FOR THE W CNTRL PORTION OF MN.              
SFC OBS SHOW TEMPS HOVERING JUST ABOVE THE FRZ MARK W OF A LINE                 
FROM AXN TO AQP TO DXX...WITH SUBSTANTIALLY WARMER TEMPS JUST E OF              
THERE. ALTHOUGH TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO STAY FAIRLY STEADY THRU THE               
REMAINDER OF THE NGTTIME PERIOD...ALSO INTRODUCED A CHC OF                      
FZRA...AS IT IS VERY POSSIBLE THAT TEMPS COULD BE BELOW FRZ IN                  
SOME LOCATIONS /ESPECIALLY WITH 30 DEG TEMPS NOT TOO FAR AWAY ALNG              
THE SODAK BRDR/.                                                                
AS EXPECTED...THE PERIODIC DENSE FOG HAS SHOWN A TENDENCY TO LIFT               
IN MOST LOCATIONS...ESPECIALLY SINCE THE HEAVIER PRECIP HAS MOVED               
INTO THE FA ONCE AGAIN. A FEW SPOTTY LOCATIONS STILL RPTING VIS OF              
A QUARTER TO A HALF MILE...SO HAVE CONT THE MENTION OF HALF MILE                
FOG...ALTHO DID ADJUST IT WWRD SOMEWHAT.                                        
AS FAR AS THE FCST FOR TOMORROW GOES...MADE A FEW CHGS TO THE WX                
GRIDS WITH LATEST NAM RUN AND EARLIER NAM/GFS/RUC BUFR SOUNDING                 
DATA SHOWING A HESITANCY TO LET GO OF THE WARM LAYER. WARM NOSE                 
EXHIBITS SUBSTANTIAL COOLING BTWN THE 12 AND 18Z MON...WHEN THE                 
MAIN LOBE OF H8 FRONTOGENESIS PUSHES INTO WRN MN. AS A                          
RESULT...HAVE KEPT MAINLY A RA/ZR MIX THRU MIDDAY TOMORROW ACRS                 
THE W CNTRL MN COUNTIES BEFORE TRANSITIONING IT TO A ZR/SN MIX AND              
FINALLY ALL SN BY TOMORROW EVENING. BULK OF SNOW SHUD FALL DURG                 
THE LATE AFTN IN A CORRIDOR WEST OF A LINE FROM MONTEVIDEO TO LONG              
PRAIRIE /PER H8 FRONTOGENESIS ANALYSIS AND VERT CROSS-SECTIONS/.                
UPDATED PRODUCTS ALREADY AVBL.                                                  
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 415 PM CST SUN NOV 27 2005/                         
DISCUSSION...                                                                   
HAS BEEN A BUSY DAY BUT FORTUNATELY 12Z MODELS AND PREV FCST HAVE               
BEEN IN GOOD SHAPE. MAIN ISSUE WAS TO DETERMINE WHAT TO DO WITH                 
THE WATCH FOR WC INTO CNTRL MN. VERY STRONG SYSTEM WINDING UP OVER              
KANSAS. QUESTION WAS WHETHER TO GO WITH THE FASTER GFS OR SLOWER                
NAM. GFS WOULD BRING IN THE COOL LOW LEVEL TEMPS ABOUT 6 HOURS                  
FASTER. PER THE HPC MODEL DISC...NAM WAS TOO WARM AT 850 MB AT                  
SEVERAL SITES IN THE GREAT PLAINS. GFS THEREFORE STRONGER WITH                  
THE LOW. HAVING SAID THAT...BOTH NAM AND GFS BRING THE RAPIDLY DEEPENING        
LOW INTO NW/NC IOWA WHERE BOTH MODELS SHOW THE OCCLUSION TAKING                 
PLACE AT 18Z MONDAY THEN MORE OF A NORTHEASTWARD DIRECTION. DEFORMATION         
ZONE PEGGED FROM SD INTO CENTRAL MN. STRONG DYNAMIC COOLING                     
EVIDENT ON BOTH GFS AND NAM. NICE FRONTOGENETIC FORCING. GFS                    
BECOMES COOL ENOUGH FOR SNOW AFTER 12Z... WHILE THE NAM IS A                    
LITTLE SLOWER. WILL ISSUE WARNING FOR FAR WC MN BASED ON THE                    
EXPECTATION OF DYNAMIC COOLING TO PLAY ITS IMPORTANT ROLE...AND                 
BUMP THE WATCH FOR RWF-LXL BACK A LITTLE BIT. EVEN THE FASTER GFS               
SUGGESTS THE RWF-LXL AREA WILL NOT GET COLD ENOUGH UNTIL MIDDAY.                
MSP METRO INTO WISC PROBABLY WILL NOT CHANGE OVER TO SNOW UNTIL                 
MONDAY EVENING WHEN LO RACES BY. COLD TEMPS THEREAFTER. ANOTHER                 
SHORT WAVE FOR WEDNESDAY. THX FOR COORD TO DLH/FGF/FSD.                         
LONGER TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY                                    
SHORT WAVE SWINGS THRU CWA WED NIGHT INTO THU BRINGING LIGHT SNOW TO            
REGION. SYSTEM IS PROGRESSIVE IN ZONAL FLOW SO PRECIP WILL SHUT OFF             
BY THU EVE. BEST MOISTURE/LIFT OVHD WED NIGHT SO LIKELY POPS THEN               
WITH CHANCE POPS THU WITH WRAPAROUND MOISTURE. DRY WX FRI AND SAT               
WITH ANOTHER SHORT WAVE PASSING THRU FROM W TO E SUN. HAVE LOW                  
CHANCE -SN MENTIONED FOR NOW WITH THIS FEATURE SINCE AMT OF MOISTURE            
ACCOMPANYING WAVE IS IN QUESTION. HOWEVER...MOST PROMINENT WX                   
FEATURE THRU EXTENDED WILL BE BELOW NORMAL TEMPS WITH COLD POOL OF              
AIR /850MB TEMPS IN THE TEENS BELOW ZERO/ THRU PD.                              
$$                                                                              
&&                                                                              
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
MN...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 6 AM MONDAY TO MIDNIGHT CST MONDAY               
     NIGHT FOR CHIPPEWA-DOUGLAS-LAC QUI PARLE-POPE-STEVENS-SWIFT-               
     TODD-YELLOW MEDICINE.                                                      
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY EVENING            
     FOR BENTON-BROWN-KANDIYOHI-MEEKER-MORRISON-REDWOOD-RENVILLE-               
     STEARNS.                                                                   
WI...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
KAT                                                                             
</PRE></TT></td>   mn                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN                              
1100 AM CST SUN NOV 27 2005                                                     
.UPDATE...                                                                      
EXTENDED AND MODIFIED THE FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY FOR MOX TO LXL                 
AREA. FREEZING DRIZZLE CONTINUING LATE THIS MORNING AND DENSE FOG               
HAS SHOWN UP AS WELL. THEREFORE HAVE SWITCHED IT OVER TO A WINTER               
WX ADVY THROUGH 4 PM. THX FGF FOR COORD. THIS AREA IS SOME DISTANCE             
NORTH OF FRONT. LATEST RUC SUGGESTS FOG WILL NOT ABATE FOR                      
AWHILE. RUC AND SFC ANALYSIS SUGGEST LO LVL TEMPS WILL LIKELY REMAIN            
AOB 32 INTO MID AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY FROM AXN TO LXL. TEMPS SHOULD            
FINALLY RISE ABOVE FREEZING LATE THIS AFTERNOON AS SYSTEM WINDS                 
UP. AS FOR WINTER STORM WATCH...12Z NAM INDICATES LO LVL TEMPS WILL REMAIN      
TOO WARM FOR SNOW THROUGH MIDDAY MONDAY...EVEN IN OUR FAR WESTERN               
COUNTIES. GFS BRINGS IN THE COOLER TEMPS AFTER 12Z MONDAY. MIGHT                
DECIDE TO PUSH WATCH BACK IN TIME BUT THAT WILL BE DECIDED OVER                 
THE NEXT FEW HOURS.                                                             
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 435 AM CST SUN NOV 27 2005/                         
DISCUSSION...                                                                   
RUNNING A BIT BEHIND WITH FREEZING RAIN SITUATION AND HEADLINES.                
IMPETUS FOR FRZG RAIN ADVY WAS CONVECTION BREAKING OUT IN CENTRAL MN            
AROUND 0200.  QUITE A CHANGE IN PWATS AND MID LEVEL INSTABILITY LAST            
FEW HOURS AS STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW ALLOWED FOR RAPID MOISTURE                   
IMPORT.  THESE SHOWERS WERE DEVELOPING AND MOVING RAPIDLY NORTHEAST             
INTO AREA WHERE SURFACE TEMPS WERE ONLY IN LOWER AND MID 20S.  AREAS            
FARTHER SOUTH WHERE MORE WIDESPREAD PRECIP WAS DEVELOPING WERE                  
WARMING FAST ENOUGH TO PREVENT FREEZING.  WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF             
MOST OF THE THUNDERSTORMS WERE CONFINED TO THE MORNING HOURS WHEN               
ATMOSPHERE WAS UNDERGOING ITS MOST RAPID CHANCE.  DID NOT MAKE                  
CHANGES TO WATCH HEADLINES OR FORECAST SNOW AMOUNTS IN GRIDS. STILL             
LOOKS VERY GOOD FOR HEAVY SNOW WESTERN CWA LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY             
EVENING. HUGE NET VERTICAL DISPLACEMENT OF 120 MB ENDING 12Z MONDAY             
WITH CONTINED VERTICAL MOTION THRU THE DAY.  STRONG 200 MB WAA IS               
ALSO VERY PERSISTENT.  300K ISENTROPIC CHART ALSO SHOWING PROLONGED             
PERIOD OF LIFT WITH LARGE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE AVAILABLE. WITH MID                
LEVELS REMAINING QUITE UNSTABLE COULD EVEN SEE SOME THUNDERSNOW IN W            
CWA.  DIFFICULTY REMAINS THE VERY WARM AIRMASS AND TIMING WHEN                  
SUFFICIENT COOLING WILL OCCUR TO CHANGE TO SNOW.  THINK THAT BY 12Z             
MONDAY THE FAR W WILL SEE ACCUMULATING SNOW WITH HEAVY SNOW                     
CONTINUING MONDAY AS LOW LEVELS COOL RAPIDLY AS SURFACE LOW LIFTS               
NE. ADDED PROBLEM WILL BE STRONG WINDS DEVELOPING AS DEEP LOW LIFTS             
NE. RAIN SHUD CHANGE TO MAINLY SNOW LATE MONDAY AFTN AND EARLY EVE E            
MN...BUT WITH WITH A FEW INCHES POSSIBLE.                                       
LONGER TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY                                          
MOST SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WE MADE OCCURRED ON WEDNESDAY THROUGH                  
THURSDAY WHERE SNOW PROBABILITIES WERE MOVED UP TO LIKELY IN                    
RESPONSE TO STRONG WAVE BROUGHT INTO OUR CWA BY THE LATEST GFS.                 
WHILE THE GFS HAS BEEN ERRATIC AT TIMES...THE FACT THAT THE                     
ECMWF MAINTAINS AND STRENGTHENS THIS SAME PIECE OF ENERGY MOVING IN             
FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST ADDS A GREAT DEAL TO OUR CONFIDENCE FOR              
AN EXPECTED SNOWY OUTCOME ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.                            
THE ECMWF HAS AN EXPANSIVE AREA OF NEGATIVE STANDARD DEVIATIONS FOR             
850 MB TEMPERATURES (I.E. 1.5 UNITS) OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST ON                  
DECEMBER 1ST SO WE WOULD EXPECT THIS DAY WILL BE THE COLDEST ONE OF             
THE UPCOMING FIVE DAY PERIOD. THE UKMET APPEARS TO EVOLVE THIS SAME             
PIECE OF ENERGY INTO THE EASTERN HALF OF AN OMEGA BLOCK BY DECEMBER             
1ST WITH THE MPX CWA ON THE WEST END OF THE EASTERNMOST CLOSED LOW              
OF THE BLOCK.                                                                   
&&                                                                              
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
MN...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR            
     CHIPPEWA-DOUGLAS-LAC QUI PARLE-POPE-STEVENS-SWIFT-TODD-                    
     YELLOW MEDICINE.                                                           
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY EVENING              
     FOR BENTON-BROWN-KANDIYOHI-MEEKER-MORRISON-REDWOOD-RENVILLE-               
     STEARNS.                                                                   
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR                  
     DOUGLAS-MORRISON-POPE-STEVENS-TODD.                                        
WI...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
TDK                                                                             
</PRE></TT></td>   mn                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS                                             
400 PM CST SUN NOV 27 2005                                                      
.DISCUSSION...PRIME TIME FOR SEVERE TSRA APPEARS TO BE 05Z-20Z...               
SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND MONDAY...DEEPENING SURFACE LOW IN KS NOW               
DOWN TO 983MB AND HEADING SLOWLY NE AS UPPER JET CORE ROUNDING THE              
BASE OF CENTRAL CONUS TROUGH AXIS THROUGH TX. AIR MASS BEGINNING TO             
RECOVER OVER THE LOWER MS VALLEY WITH 62-64F DEWPOINTS NOSING UP THE            
RIVER. WHILE DAYTIME STRATUS DECK HAS SPOILED SOME HEATING AT PLACES            
IN OUR CWFA...75-80F TEMPS HAVE MADE IT INTO NERN LA AND SERN MS.               
FIRST SQUALL LINE DEVELOPING OVER NE TX/WRN AR COVERED BY TOR WW 876            
WHICH GOES UNTIL 04Z. EXPECT THIS WW TO SHIFT EWD TO NEAR MS RIVER LATER        
THIS EVENING AS MODELS NOW APPEAR TO BE BACKING OFF A BIT ON EXTREME            
LOW LEVEL SHEAR VALUES WHILE KEEPING MARGINAL SBCAPES/MLCAPES. BEST             
ESTIMATE IS THE SEVERE PARAMETERS YIELD THE FOLLOWING NUMBERS ALONG             
THE MS RIVER BY 06Z: SBCAPES/MLCAPES IN THE RANGE OF 600-800J/KG...             
0-1KM AND 0-3KM HELICITIES OF 500-600M*M/S*S...SIGNIFICANT SVR                  
PARAMETER 25-30K...AND STG TOR PARAMETER 2.5-3.0M/S*S. 18Z RUC SHOWED           
6 HOUR PRES FALLS OF 4MB+ BY 06Z...SFC DEWPOINTS 65-67F AND 700-500MB           
LAPSE RATES 5.5-6C. MODELS HAVE UNDERESTIMATED 500MB SPEED MAX IN W             
NOSING INTO THE ARKLATEX AT 110KTS. THESE WINDS RACE THROUGH THE NW             
HALF OF AR TOWARD MO BOOTHEEL OVERNIGHT SETTING UP A VERY FAVORABLE             
RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION FOR OUR FA AS S-N LOW LEVEL JET AXIS OF 60KTS             
AT 850MB MOVES EWD. PRIME DIVERGENCE COUPLET FROM 850-200MB MOVES ALONG         
A LINE FROM KPBF TO KMEM TO KMKL AND THIS SHOULD EASILY SUPPORT                 
ONGOING SQUALL LINE HEADING OUR DIRECTION.                                      
PRE-SQUALL TSRA SEEMS TO BE MINIMAL HOWEVER A MAJOR PROBLEM WILL BE             
HOW IN TACT THE SRN END OF THE LINE REMAINS WITH DIMINISHING CAPE ON            
THE E SIDE OF THE MS RIVER FROM 06-13Z. AT THIS TIME...WE BELIEVE A             
BROKEN LINE OF SUPERCELLS COULD EMERGE S OF HIGHWAY 82 CORRIDOR WHICH           
WOULD ACTUALLY ENHANCE THE RISK FOR STRONG/VIOLENT TORNADOES...ALBEIT           
FEWER CASES OF SUCH MOVING INTO THE I-55 CORRIDOR BY SUNRISE(A LITTLE           
TOO SIMILIAR TO 11/24/2001).                                                    
THEN EXPECT A REDEVELOPING TSRA LINE ROUGHLY ALONG THE NATCHEZ TRACE            
PARKWAY DURING THE MORNING HOURS WITH INCREASING INSTABILITY                    
BECOMING AVAILABLE FOR E CENTRAL MS BY MIDDAY. THE SEVERE RISK COULD            
REACH A SECONDARY PEAK FOR THE KCBM-KMEI AREAS 15-20Z AS ENOUGH                 
FACTORS REMAIN TOGETHER FOR ADDITIONAL SUPERCELL INITIATION. THE BACK           
OF THE LINE OF STORMS SHOULD START ACCELERATING EWD BY MID AFTERNOON            
MONDAY LEAVING THE START OF A DRYING AND GRADUALLY COOLING TREND IN             
ITS PLACE./40/                                                                  
LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY.                                   
COLD FRONT SHOULD BE EXITING EASTERN MISSISSIPPI BY LATE AFTERNOON              
PER OP GFS MODEL. HOWEVER...I HELD SOME LOW POPS OVER INTO THE                  
EVENING...MAINLY UP AGAINST THE STATE LINE...TO HEDGE AGAINST THE               
SLOWER NAM SOLUTION COMING TO PASS. IF ANY PRECIP DOES LINGER PAST              
00Z TUESDAY IN MY EAST CWA THEN ANTICIPATE ONLY BENIGN REMNANTS OF              
DEPARTING CONVECTION...AND NOTHING SEVERE. SKIES SHOULD CLEAR BEHIND            
THE FRONT TEMPORARILY TUESDAY NIGHT...BUT STRATOCUMULUS WILL LIKELY             
COME BACK TO COVER AT LEAST THE NORTH HALF OF THE REGION BY 12Z AS              
COLD TEMPS ALOFT UNDERNEATH THE UPPER LOW COME SWINGING IN. WENT NEAR           
MAV TEMPS FOR LOWS AS MINIMUMS MAINLY FROM 40 TO 45 DEGREES SEEM A              
GOOD COMPROMISE BETWEEN MODERATE COLD AIR ADVECTION AND THE LACK OF             
GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS.                                            
COLD AIR CONTINUING TO BUILD IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WILL ENSURE A             
RATHER CHILLY TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES BELOW                 
NORMAL. OCCASIONALLY BREEZY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS OVER THIS PERIOD            
WILL PROVIDE A BIT OF A WIND CHILL WHILE DAYTIME CLOUDS AT LEAST                
NORTH OF THE INTERSTATE TWENTY CORRIDOR LIMIT WARMING SUNSHINE. WENT            
CLOSE TO MAV HIGHS (MAINLY 50S) BUT CUT LOWS FOR WEDNESDAY MORNING 2            
TO 3 DEGREES AS GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL              
AND THE MAV STATS HAVE SHOWS A STRONG WARM BIAS FOR US IN THESE                 
SITUATIONS LATELY. EXPECT MINIMUMS GENERALLY IN THE 30S.                        
UNCERTAINTY INCREASES GREATLY FOR THE REST OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD.             
THE UPPER PATTERN SEEMS TO TRANSITION INTO A SORT OF QUASI-ZONAL                
FLOW BY LATE IN THE WORK WEEK OVER MOST OF THE CONUS WITH WAVES OF              
JET STREAM ENERGY TRACKING QUICKLY WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE NATION.              
THIS LOOKS TO BE A RELATIVELY ACTIVE PATTERN FOR THE LOWER                      
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WITH SEVERAL SHOTS OF PRECIP COMING THROUGH THE              
NEXT 7 TO 10 DAYS. ALSO...MODELS INDICATE COLD AIR PERCHED ALONG THE            
US/CANADIAN BORDER WILL MAKE A FEW INTRUSIONS AND WILL BE A SOURCE              
OF BAROCLINICITY TO AMPLIFY A DEVELOPING STORM SYSTEM OR TWO DURING             
THIS TIME. ALL THAT SAID...THE MODELS ARE HAVING A VERY DIFFICULT               
TIME WITH THE DETAILS RIGHT NOW...AND THEIR LACK OF RUN-TO-RUN                  
CONSISTENCY DOES NOT INSPIRE MUCH CONFIDENCE IN FINE OUTPUTS (LIKE              
THE MEX). THUS...I AM INCLUDING 20 POPS PAST FRIDAY WITH HOPEFULLY              
10 POPS COVERING THE VERY MEAGER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS THURSDAY. TEMPS            
WILL BE GENERALLY A LITTLE BELOW AVERAGE AND I WENT CLOSER TO THE               
MORE CONSERVATIVE ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE GIVEN THE STATED ISSUES WITH THE            
MEX STATS. /BB/                                                                 
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
MVFR DECK OF STRATUS OVER THE AREA FINALLY BREAKING UP FOR THE MOST PART        
WITH A FEW SMALL -SHRA AT 3-5K FT. WINDS ALSO RESPONDING TO DEEP SURFACE        
LOW AS SOUTHERLY WINDS INCREASING ALONG MS RIVER TO 20-25KTS IN GUSTS.          
EXPECT FURTHER INTENSIFICATION...FOR GLH...GWO AND JAN AS SUSTAINED             
WINDS NEAR 18KTS AND GUSTS TO 30KTS WILL DEVELOP OVERNIGHT. LINE OF             
THUNDERSTORMS(A FEW SVR) WILL APPROACH GLH/GWO/TVR 07-10Z TONIGHT               
REACHING JAN TOWARD 11-14Z AND LOCAL FLYING CONDITIONS WILL                     
DETERIORATE RAPIDLY. THE LINE PROGRESSES TO NEAR CBM-MCB LINE BY 16Z            
AND MEI AREA SHORTLY THEREAFTER./40/                                            
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
JACKSON       63  68  42  57 /  54  81  11  10                                  
MERIDIAN      65  74  44  58 /  31  90  28  13                                  
VICKSBURG     59  66  39  56 /  70  53   9   6                                  
HATTIESBURG   65  76  45  61 /  20  71  24   9                                  
NATCHEZ       61  66  41  58 /  60  49   7   5                                  
GREENVILLE    57  65  39  54 /  92  36  10   7                                  
GREENWOOD     59  65  40  53 /  70  74  10  10                                  
&&                                                                              
.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
MS...LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 3 PM CST MONDAY FOR           
     MSZ029-MSZ030-MSZ031-MSZ032-MSZ033-MSZ038-MSZ039-MSZ044-                   
     MSZ045-MSZ046-MSZ050-MSZ051-MSZ052-MSZ055-MSZ056-MSZ057-                   
     MSZ058-MSZ062-MSZ063-MSZ064-MSZ065-MSZ066-MSZ072-MSZ073-                   
     MSZ074.                                                                    
     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST MONDAY FOR MSZ018-MSZ019-MSZ025-              
     MSZ034-MSZ035-MSZ040-MSZ041.                                               
     LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST MONDAY FOR MSZ026-MSZ027-                
     MSZ028-MSZ036-MSZ037-MSZ042-MSZ043-MSZ047-MSZ048-MSZ049-                   
     MSZ053-MSZ054-MSZ059-MSZ060-MSZ061.                                        
LA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST MONDAY FOR LAZ007-LAZ008-LAZ009-              
     LAZ015.                                                                    
     LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST MONDAY FOR LAZ016-LAZ023-                
     LAZ024-LAZ025-LAZ026.                                                      
AR...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST MONDAY FOR ARZ074-ARZ075.                     
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</PRE></TT></td>   ms                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MISSOULA MT                                            
933 AM MST SUN NOV 27 2005                                                      
.UPDATE...SATELLITE WATER VAPOR LOOP PLACES THE UPPER LEVEL LOW                 
CURRENTLY OVER SOUTHEAST CORNER OF MONTANA. WRAP AROUND MOISTURE                
FROM THIS SYSTEM IS PRODUCING WIDESPREAD SNOW SHOWERS...MAINLY                  
EAST OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE. HOWEVER...THESE SHOWERS CONTINUE                
TO EXTEND INTO THE BLACKFOOT...SEELEY-SWAN AND GLACIER PARK                     
REGION. MOST RELIABLE MODEL TODAY APPEARS TO BE THE RUC...WHICH                 
PREDICTS ONLY SLOWLY IMPROVING CONDITIONS BY LATE AFTERNOON AND                 
THEN RAPIDLY IMPROVING CONDITIONS THIS EVENING. HAVE CONTINUED                  
WITH SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW ADVISORY FOR AREA DISCUSSED ABOVE...MAY              
END UP EXTENDING THIS ADVISORY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THOUGH AT                 
THIS TIME...TIMING LOOKS REASONABLE.                                            
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION... (ISSUED 136 AM MST SUN NOV 27 2005)                         
SHORT TERM...THE STRONG...EASTERLY MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVEL FLOW                  
ALOFT (ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF A DEPARTING UPPER LOW TO THE                     
SOUTHEAST) HAS ALLOWED FOR THE CLOUD COVER TO EXTEND AS FAR WEST                
AS EASTERN WASHINGTON WITH SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY BEING REPORTED AS               
FAR WEST AS MULLAN PASS AND LEWISTON...IDAHO. EXPECTING FOR THE                 
PRECIP TO BEGIN TO SHUT OFF FROM WEST TO EAST THIS AFTERNOON AS                 
THE UPPER LOW MOVES OVER COLORADO. BEHIND THIS SYSTEM...A RIDGE OF              
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA TONIGHT AND ON MONDAY. HAVE              
LEFT IN A CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW IN THE CLEARWATERS FOR                          
TONIGHT...IN SPITE OF THE RIDGE. THIS IS DUE TO THE PRESENCE OF A               
RATHER STOUT UPPER JET AND ENERGETIC MID LEVEL NORTHERLY FLOW OVER              
THE AREA...ABOVE THE RIDGE. OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPS WILL BE COLD IN                 
THE VALLEYS UNDERNEATH THE SURFACE RIDGE AND UNDER LIGHT WINDS                  
WHICH SHOULD HELP STRENGTHEN VALLEY SURFACE INVERSIONS.                         
HOWEVER...THINKING THAT THE PRESENCE OF A MID LEVEL CLOUD DECK                  
SHOULD HELP BUFFER THE OVERNIGHT DROPOFF IN TEMPS.                              
THE NEXT CHANCE FOR PRECIP ARRIVE MONDAY NIGHT AS THE RIDGE BEGINS              
TO MOVE EAST AND AS A SYSTEM BEGINS TO APPROACH. APPEARS THAT THE               
GFS IS HAVING A BIT OF DIFFICULTY WITH THE EVOLUTION AND TRACK OF               
THE LOWER AND MIDDLE LEVEL PORTION OF THIS SYSTEM. LATEST MODEL                 
RUNS HAVE SLOWED DOWN THE ITS APPROACH AND HAVE MADE IT MORE OF A               
TUESDAY EVENT INSTEAD OF A MONDAY NIGHT EVENT. REGARDLESS OF THE                
TIMING...SNOW ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED AGAIN FOR THE MOUNTAIN                   
LOCATIONS ACROSS CENTRAL IDAHO AND WESTERN MONTANA. GIVEN THE                   
UNCERTAINTY IN TIMING...WILL HANDLE THIS IN THE HWO FOR NOW.                    
LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...MODELS HAVE BEEN PRETTY                  
CONSISTENT WITH KEEPING A PROGRESSIVE WET PATTERN OVER THE AREA                 
THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD...WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL. THE                
SYSTEM ON TUESDAY IS STILL LOOKING TO BE A GOOD SNOW PRODUCER IN                
THE MOUNTAINS...AND COULD WARRANT HIGHLIGHTS IN THE NEAR FUTURE.                
&&                                                                              
AVIATION...SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY ALONG THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE AND                
IN THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE FLATHEAD VALLEY WILL CONTINUE UNTIL              
AT LEAST EARLY AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WILL                 
DECREASE FROM WEST-TO-EAST DURING THE DAY TODAY. PLEASE CONTINUE                
TO MONITOR THE TWEBS AND TAFS FOR UPDATES.                                      
&&                                                                              
.MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
MT...SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM SUNDAY FOR WEST                  
     GLACIER REGION...POTOMAC/SEELEY LAKE REGION.                               
ID...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
UPDATE...MWJ                                                                    
PREV DISCUSSION...HENRY/KOLATA                                                  
AVIATION...MWJ                                                                  
</PRE></TT></td>   mt                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE                                            
515 AM CST SUN NOV 27 2005                                                      
.DISCUSSION...SIMPLY PUT...MAIN ISSUE IS POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT              
WINTER STORM FROM LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON THRU MONDAY.                            
MODEL OF CHOICE WAS THE UKMET. MOST CONSISTENT THE LAST TWO DAYS                
AND OTHER OPERATIONAL MODELS (NAM/GFS) HAVE COME ITS DIRECTION.                 
SHARP AND MEANDERING BAROCLINIC BOUNDARY OVER THE CWFA AT THIS                  
TIME. THIS BOUNDARY IS WELL HANDLED BY THE RUC13 SURFACE                        
DEPICTIONS. IT IS FORECAST TO ONLY SLOWLY MOVE EAST THROUGH                     
EARLY AFTERNOON BEFORE GETTING ALONG A BIT QUICKER.                             
UKMET AND NOW MODEL SWEAT POINT TOWARD A MAJOR WINTER STORM                     
POSSIBLE LATER TODAY. FRONTOGENETIC FORCING IS VERY HIGH.                       
SHARP AND POWER-HOUSE JET WILL RESULT IN RAPID DEEPENING OF THE                 
APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SUNDAY EVENING. UNSEASONABLE               
MOISTURE AVAILABILITY INITIALLY FOR THE AREA. ISENTROPIC LIFT MAXED             
SUNDAY EVENING...BUT CONTINUES THROUGHOUT THE DAY MONDAY.                       
FINALLY...POTENTIAL FOR VERY HIGH WINDS...30 TO 50 MPH...                       
AND NEAR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS. ALL OF THIS HAS TAKEN THE                         
FORECAST TO WINTER STORM WARNING WESTERN AREAS LATER TODAY                      
THROUGH MONDAY.                                                                 
ONE MAIN QUESTION IS HANGING OUT THERE ON THIS FORECAST. FIRST AND              
FOREMOST IS THE COLD AIR. EVENING UPPER AIR RUNS DON/T HAVE A WHOLE             
LOT OF COLD. THERE IS MARGINAL COLD AIR AT THE SURFACE UP TO THE                
CANADIAN BORDER.                                                                
THERE MAY SOME QUESTION OF MOISTURE. THOUGH SUFFICIENT AMBIENT                  
MOISTURE IS IN PLACE...WEATHER SYSTEM HAS CLEARED THE DEEPER (H85)              
MOISTURE A BIT FROM THE GULF. UNFAVORABLE FLOW LAST EVENING. WORRY              
THAT SQUALL LINE LATE SUNDAY EVENING COULD UNDERCUT ADDITIONAL                  
MOISTURE AND LIMIT SNOW AMOUNTS DOWN FROM A VERY HEAVY CATEGORY...              
ESPECIALLY FROM ABOUT 10Z TO 15Z MONDAY...BEFORE MORE MOISTURE                  
IS ABLE TO WRAP INTO THE AREA...AT THAT TIME ACROSS NORTHERN                    
AREAS.                                                                          
HIGHLY CONDITIONAL FORECAST IS BASED UPON A CHANGE OVER OF SNOW                 
LATE THIS AFTERNOON WESTERN CWFA...AND EXPECTATION OF A HEAVY SNOW              
BAND 60 TO 80 MILES WIDE CENTERED ALONG HIGHWAY 183. 06Z RUNS                   
CAME IN A BIT FURTHER WEST. SECOND ISSUE IS THE WIND...AND WHILE                
SNOW AMOUNTS MAY STRUGGLE FOR /HEAVY SNOW CRITERIA/ WINDS OF                    
30 TO 50 MPH CREATE POTENTIAL FOR BLIZZARD LIKE CONDITIONS.                     
THEREFORE...FELT THE RISK WARRANTED A WARNING FOR WESTERN AREAS                 
AND ADVISORIES FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST. THIS SEEMS TO ALIGN                      
OKAY WITH NEARBY OFFICES...AND DAYSHIFT WILL HAVE TO MONITOR                    
FOR ANY EXPANSION...MOST LIKELY FURTHER SOUTH INTO PHILLIPS                     
AND ROOKS COUNTY KANSAS.                                                        
THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR SOME THUNDERSTORMS IN THE SOUTHEAST                      
CWFA AS WELL...AND DAYSHIFT WILL ALSO HAVE TO MONITOR THAT.                     
ONLY EDITS TO THE FORECAST WERE WITHIN THE FIRST 48 HOURS.                      
&&                                                                              
.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
NE...WINTER STORM WARNING LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY WEST OF            
A ST. PAUL TO FRANKLIN LINE.                                                    
SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW ADVISORY REST OF THE SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA               
TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY.                                                         
KS...SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW ADVISORY LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH               
MONDAY.                                                                         
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
NOAA/NWS/MORITZ                                                                 
</PRE></TT></td>   ne                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC                               
934 AM EST SUN NOV 27 2005                                                      
.SHORT TERM (TODAY)...PRECIP SPREADING INLAND OVER NORTHEAST SOUTH              
CAROLINA AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA IN WARM ADVECTION                 
PATTERN. BASED ON RADAR...BULK OF PRECIP WILL REMAIN WEST OF OUR                
CWA FOR AWHILE...BUT THINK WESTERN CWA WILL HAVE BEST CHC OF                    
SEEING SOME PRECIP THRU THE AFTERNOON HOURS. MADE MINOR CHANGES TO              
GRIDS AND WILL UPDATE TO REMOVE MORNING WORDING. DESPITE FAIRLY                 
EXTENSIVE CLOUD SHIELD...THE LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION SHOULD ALLOW              
TEMPS TO REACH FCST HIGHS AROUND 60 WEST TO MIDDLE 60S EAST.                    
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...LOWER CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE IN AS THE ATMOSPHERE             
MOISTENS UP. LIGHT RAIN WILL SPREAD IN THIS AFTERNOON. VISIBILITIES             
GENERALLY NO LOWER THAN 5 MILES. CEILINGS WILL BE MVFR THROUGH THE              
PERIOD. SURFACE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT NORTHEAST TODAY THEN VEER TO                
SOUTHEAST LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING.                                 
&&                                                                              
.MARINE...NORTHEAST FLOW ACROSS THE WATERS AT PRESENT. LATEST                   
COASTAL AND OFFSHORE OBS MATCH UP WELL. LATEST RUC40 DELAYS WESTWARD            
MOVEMENT OF COASTAL TROF UNTIL LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS                    
EVENING. THE SHIFT TO EAST WINDS WILL OCCUR OVER THE SOUNDS AND                 
NORTH OF CAPE HATTERAS THIS AFTERNOON...AND SHIFT TO SOUTHEAST FOR              
THE WATERS SOUTH OF CAPE HATTERAS LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THE ZONES                
WERE WORDED ACCORDINGLY. NO OTHER CHANGES MADE.                                 
&&                                                                              
.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
NC...NONE.                                                                      
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR AMZ150-152-154-156-158 FROM 7 PM              
     SUNDAY TO 7 PM THURSDAY.                                                   
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHORT TERM...COLLINS                                                            
AVIATION...AUSTIN                                                               
MARINE...AUSTIN                                                                 
</PRE></TT></td>   nc                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC                                             
652 AM EST SUN NOV 27 2005                                                      
.SHORT TERM (REST OF TODAY)...                                                  
HAVE JUST SENT A QUICK UPDATE TO GRAPHICAL AND TEXT PRODUCTS TO                 
ACCOUNT FOR A SLIGHTLY QUICKER ENTRANCE OF THE OVERCAST SKIES AND TO            
BRING IN RAIN CHANCES A FEW HOURS SOONER IN THE SOUTH THIS MORNING.             
&&                                                                              
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...                                                         
(ISSUED 245 AM EST SUN NOV 27 2005)                                             
SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)...                                     
TODAY THROUGH MONDAY: HEALTHY STRIP OF CONVECTION IS PUSHING INTO               
ALABAMA THIS MORNING WITH IMPRESSIVE GRAVITY WAVES SHOWING UP ON IR             
SATELLITE IMAGERY. HIGH CLOUDS CONTINUE TO STREAM INTO NC FROM THE              
SOUTHWEST BUT THE DENSER OVERCAST OF MID AND LOWER LEVEL CLOUDS ARE             
ON OUR DOORSTEP. SHOWERS GENERATED BY 850 MB MOISTURE FLUX                      
CONVERGENCE ATTENDING THE NORTHEASTWARD MOVING COASTAL FRONT HAVE               
MOVED ONSHORE OVER COASTAL SC... AND THE RUC/NAM/GFS ALL AGREE ON               
QUICKLY INCREASING ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE TODAY ON THE 290-295 K                    
SURFACES... WHILE THE APPROACH OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND                    
SUBTROPICAL JET FROM THE SOUTHWEST INCREASES UPPER DIVERGENCE AND               
MOISTURE INFLOW ALOFT WITH MINOR AMOUNTS OF MID LEVEL POSITIVE                  
VORTICITY ADVECTION. HAVE BROUGHT IN CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE SOUTH               
LATER THIS MORNING THROUGH MIDDAY... THEN WILL HAVE A PERIOD OF                 
LIKELY POPS THIS AFTERNOON AS SKIES GO MOSTLY CLOUDY EVERYWHERE. GFS            
RAINFALL PATTERN LOOKS A BIT MORE REALISTIC THAN THE NAM WHICH GRABS            
ONTO SOME 850 MB CONVERGENCE IN EASTERN NC AND FOCUSES AN INORDINATE            
AMOUNT OF RAIN THERE. DO ANTICIPATE QPF TO BE LESS THAN MODEL                   
PREDICTIONS DUE TO THE GULF COAST CONVECTION WHICH COULD INDUCE WEAK            
DOWNSTREAM RIDGING OVER NC THIS AFTERNOON. LITTLE CHANGE IS NEEDED              
TO CURRENT HIGHS WITH NORTHWEST CWA... WHERE THE WEAK SURFACE-BASED             
STABLE POOL WILL BE THE LAST TO GO... TOPPING OUT AT JUST 50-52 WITH            
READINGS NEAR 60 IN THE SOUTHWEST CWA. WITH THE EXIT OF THE UPPER               
JET AND A LOSS OF ANY SUBSTANTIAL FORCING... PLUS WITH CENTRAL NC               
EXPECTED TO GET MOSTLY INTO THE WARM SECTOR (EXCEPT FOR MAYBE THE               
TRIAD AREA) WITH BRIEF MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE RIDGING... SHOWERS SHOULD            
DECREASE TO SCATTERED (WEST) TO ISOLATED (EAST) TONIGHT AND CONTINUE            
THROUGH MONDAY. DIFFUSE ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE HANGS ON SO CONSIDERABLE             
CLOUDINESS IS LIKELY BUT UPPER LEVELS SHOULD DRY OUT BETWEEN TROUGHS            
AS NOTED UPSTREAM ON THE 700 & 500 MB UPPER AIR ANALYSES. EXPECT                
AREAS OF FOG TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT WITH LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS.                   
CURRENT VERY MILD LOWS IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S LOOK GOOD AND                
AGREE WITH AVERAGE OF LATEST MOS GUIDANCE. HIGHS 61-72 MONDAY.                  
TUESDAY: THE NEXT ROUND OF SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS                  
APPEARS IMMINENT WITH ALL MODEL PARAMETERS POINTING TO DEEP MOISTURE            
AND SUFFICIENT FORCING FROM THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE UPPER              
JET ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE MID LEVEL VORTEX LIFTING ACROSS THE U.P.            
OF MICHIGAN TOWARD JAMES BAY. WILL HANG ONTO CURRENT CATEGORICAL                
POPS AS AT LEAST SOME RAINFALL LOOKS INESCAPABLE GIVEN THIS AMOUNT              
OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INFLUX. LOWS 55-60 AND HIGHS 64-72. -GIH                  
LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...                                       
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE CURRENT DRY AND MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY            
CLOUDY FORECAST WITH PREVAILING BROAD CYCLONIC MID LEVEL FLOW                   
THROUGH THE PERIOD. A DEEP UPPER VORTEX WOBBLES FROM MICHIGAN INTO              
EASTERN CANADA KEEPING MINOR INEFFECTUAL PERTURBATIONS PASSING                  
THROUGH NC WITH A DRY WESTERLY BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW. LOW LEVEL                   
THICKNESSES OFF THE 00Z/27 GFS DROP TO MORE THAN 50 M BELOW NORMAL              
FOR FRIDAY/SATURDAY WHICH WOULD TRANSLATE TO HIGHS IN THE 40S TO                
AROUND 50... NOT FAR OFF CURRENT FORECAST TEMPS. -GIH                           
AVIATION...                                                                     
WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL ADVECT ATLANTIC MARITIME MOISTURE                     
LATE THIS MORNING AND INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON. AS A                            
RESULT...CEILINGS WILL LOWER TO MVFR/IFR AND LIGHT RAIN WILL                    
EXPAND FROM SOUTH TO NORTH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. LOWER MISS                 
VALLEY S/W TROUGH WILL APPROACH FROM THE SOUTHWEST AFTER                        
18Z...BRINGING A SECONDARY FLUX OF MOISTURE AND PRECIP FROM 18 TO               
00Z. RAIN SHOULD END FROM SOUTH TO NORTH AS S/W TROUGH MOVES NORTH              
OF THE AREA ~06Z...HOWEVER IFR/LIFR CEILINGS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE AS            
1000-850 S/SE FLOW CONTINUES. -BL                                               
&&                                                                              
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
NONE.                                                                           
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHORT TERM...HARTFIELD                                                          
</PRE></TT></td>   nc                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND                                         
303 PM CST SUN NOV 27 2005                                                      
.SHORT TERM...                                                                  
SHORT TERM MODELS STILL IN DECENT CONTINUITY FROM RUN TO RUN IN                 
THE OVERALL PICTURE. NAM HAS BEEN THE WORST RUN TO RUN...WITH GFS               
BETTER AND MORE CONSISTENT. HOWEVER DO PREFER MORE OF A BLEND OF                
THE TWO AS GFS MIGHT BE A TAD TOO FAST IN BRINGING IN 850 MB                    
COOLING EASTWARD WHILE NAM MIGHT BE TOO SLOW. SYSTEM IS GETTING                 
GOING NOW OVER NCNTRL KS WITH SFC LOW A BIT FARTHER WEST THAN                   
PROGGED...TO THE WEST OF CONCORDIA. PER SWOMCD AND RADARS LARGE                 
AREA OF PCPN HAS BEEN ADVECTING NORTHWARD TODAY AND THEN WRAPPING               
WESTWARD WITH MOST OF IT FALLING ALONG AND WEST OF INVERTED TROUGH              
WHICH HAS BEEN LOCATED NR A DTL-FFM-ETH LINE. EXPECT LITTLE                     
MOVEMENT OF THIS TROUGH AND PCPN FIELD WITH HEAVIEST FREEZING                   
RAIN WEST OF THIS TROUGH TONIGHT OVER SE ND...WITH TEMPS AROUND                 
32F OR JUST A BIT ABOVE EAST OF THIS TROUGH OVER WCNTRL MN.                     
FOR SOUTHEAST ND/WCNTRL MN...                                                   
NAM AND RUC 850 MB TEMPS ARE WARMEST INDICATING ZERO AND ABOVE                  
850 MB TEMPS HOLDING NR A FSE-FAR LINE TIL NR 18Z MON...WHILE GFS               
IS A BIT FASTER MOVING IT EAST. USED COMPROMISE WHICH WOULD KEEP                
FREEZING RAIN PROFILE GOING ALL NIGHT OVER SE ND INTO WCNTRL                    
MN...CHANGING TO SNOW MONDAY MORNING IN SE ND AND AFTER 18Z OVER                
WCNTRL MN. LOTS OF QUESTIONS ON HOW MAIN SNOW BAND WILL SET UP                  
NORTHWEST OF 500 MB/SFC LOW AS IT DOES FINALLY MOVE NORTHEAST                   
TOWARD MINNEAPOLIS MONDAY AFTN. CONSENSUS IS FOR MAIN BAND FROM                 
FAR NE SD/FAR SE ND INTO NCNTRL MN WITH TOTALS 4-6 WITH ISOLATED                
HIGHER AMTS. MAIN BACKEDGE OF THIS SNOW BAND LOOKS LIKE IT SHOULD               
BE NR A LISBON TO JUST WEST OF FARGO TO FOSSTON TO BAUDETTE LINE                
WITH SHARPLY LOWER AMTS WEST OF THIS LINE. THUS WARNING FOR SE ND               
INTO WCNTRL MN LOOKING GOOD WITH LIKELY 0.25 OR MORE ICE TONIGHT                
(ALL AREAS EAST AND SOUTH OF FFM) AND THEN SNOW MON AFTN/EVE.                   
FOR EAST CENTRAL ND INTO NW CORNER OF MN...                                     
MUCH MORE IFFY FCST FOR AREAS FROM FINLEY AND MAYVILLE TO GRAND                 
FORKS...THIEF RIVER FALLS AND ROSEAU. PCPN CONTINUES TO TRY TO                  
ADVECT NORTH AND WEST BUT LOW LEVELS A BIT DRIER IN THIS AREA THAN              
FARTHER SOUTH. BUT MOISTENING WILL OCCUR THIS EVENING AND DO                    
EXPECT A PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN...THOUGH MUCH LIGHTER THAN                     
SOUTHERN AREAS. THEN 850 MB TEMPS COOL ENOUGH FOR SOME -SN AFTER                
MIDNIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING...BUT LOOKS LIKE MAIN SNOW BAND EAST               
OF GFK-ROX LINE SO NOT REALLY EXPECTED TOO MUCH HVY ACCUM. FELT                 
WARNING STILL JUSTIFIED HERE INSTEAD OF ADVISORY DUE TO                         
FREEZING RAIN FOLLOWED BY SOME LIGHT SNOW AND WIND WITH THIS                    
SYSTEM...DESPITE EACH ELEMENT NOT LIKELY TO REACH WARNING                       
CRITERIA. LOTS OF PEOPLE ON ROADS AS WELL TONIGHT.                              
FOR DVL BASIN...                                                                
KEPT LOW POP GOING (20 PCT) BUT EXPECT LITTLE MEASURABLE PCPN FROM              
THSI SYSTEM AS DRIER AIR WINS OUT FROM THE NORTH.                               
AS FOR WINDS...NORTH WINDS OF 25 TO 40 MPH WILL BLOW MONDAY INTO                
MONDAY NIGHT. SO WHOMEVER GETS SNOW FROM THIS WILL SEE REDUCED                  
VSBY IN BLOWING SNOW AND QUITE POSSIBLY BLIZZARD CONDITIONS                     
DEPENDING ON DEPTH OF NEW SNOWFALL. BEST WIND PERIOD MON 18Z TIL                
06Z TUE.                                                                        
LITTLE TIME FOR TUES-WED WEATHER BUT DOES LOOK QUIET ON TUESDAY                 
THEN A WEAK 500 MB SYSTEM TO CROSS AREA ON WEDNESDAY WITH LOW                   
THREAT FOR -SN. STRONGER SFC LOW WILL GO TO OUR SOUTH OVER SRN                  
SD/NRN NE WITH A BIGGER THREAT FOR SNOW DOWN THERE. TEMPS TO BE A               
BIT BLO NORMAL.                                                                 
.LONG TERM...                                                                   
ONG TERM (THU-SUN)...MOST OF EXTENDED REMAINS THE SAME EXCEPT FOR               
LOWERING TEMPS A FEW DEGREES FRI MORN AS MOST OF REGION WILL                    
BE SITTING UNDER HIGH WITH THICKNESS VALUES PLUNGING TOWARD                     
500 DECAMETERS. GUIDANCE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH PROGRESSIVE                  
SHORT WAVE LATE WED INTO EARLY THURS SLIDING SURFACE LOW WELL                   
SOUTH. KEPT LOW POPS ENTIRE CWA ALTHOUGH ANY PCPN MAY VERY WELL BE              
ACROSS SOUTHERN SECTIONS. KEPT SAT DRY ATTM...WITH THE NEXT SYSTEM              
PROBABLY TAKING SIMILAR TRACK.                                                  
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...CIGS/VSBY FADING RAPIDLY TO IFR WITH SMORGASBORD OF                 
ICE...PELLETS AND EVENTUALLY...SNOW THIS EVE THROUGH MON MORNING.               
WIND BECOMES AN ISSUE OVERNIGHT...WITH GUSTS TO OVER 30 KTS GFK/FAR.            
&&                                                                              
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
ND...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST MONDAY NIGHT FOR NDZ038-           
     NDZ039-NDZ049-NDZ052-NDZ053.                                               
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST MONDAY NIGHT FOR NDZ027-           
     NDZ029-NDZ030.                                                             
MN...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST MONDAY NIGHT FOR MNZ002-           
     MNZ003-MNZ015-MNZ016-MNZ022-MNZ023-MNZ027-MNZ028-MNZ029-                   
     MNZ030-MNZ031-MNZ040.                                                      
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST MONDAY NIGHT FOR MNZ006-           
     MNZ009-MNZ017-MNZ024-MNZ032.                                               
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST MONDAY NIGHT FOR MNZ001-           
     MNZ005-MNZ007-MNZ008-MNZ013-MNZ014.                                        
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
RIDDLE/WJB                                                                      
</PRE></TT></td>   nd                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC                              
1024 AM EST SUN NOV 27 2005                                                     
.SHORT TERM (REST OF TODAY)...                                                  
WITH THE WEDGE SETTING UP...HAVE LOWERED MAX HIGHS FOR TODAY.                   
PRECIP HAS ASSISTED IN THE SUPPRESSION OF THE                                   
TEMPERATURES...ESPECIALLY IN THE EAST. MANY OTHER GRIDS WERE                    
TWEAKED IN ACCORDANCE WITH THE LATEST OBSERVATIONS AND SATELLITE                
IMAGES. OMEGA SETS UP OVER THE MOUNTAINS ON THE RUC LATE THIS                   
AFTERNOON BUT HAD LITTLE RESPONSE IN THE MODEL FOR PRECIP.                      
OVERALL...I HAVE RAISED POPS EVERYWHERE...MORE SO WHERE RAIN WAS                
MOVING ACROSS OR TOWARD.                                                        
THE LAKE WIND ADVISORY FOR THE SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS IS MARGINAL AT               
THIS POINT...BUT WITH ALL CONSIDERED...I CANNOT DROP IT FOR THIS                
AFTERNOON. LIGHT WIND AT THE LOWER ELEVATIONS. THERE IS SOME                    
SOMEWHAT BREEZY CONDITIONS AT THE HIGHER POINTS AND WILL GET                    
BREEZIER AS WE PROGRESS TOWARD THE END OF THE DAY.                              
&&                                                                              
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...                                                         
(ISSUED 359 AM EST SUN NOV 27 2005)                                             
SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)...                                     
ATLANTIC MOISTURE ADVECTING INTO THE MIDLANDS AND SOUTHERN                      
UPSTATE PER LATEST REGIONAL COMPOSITE AND FOG PRODUCT. EXPECT                   
EARLY MORNING PRECIPTATION TO BE LIGHT AND MAINLY SCATTERED IN                  
NATURE. ISENTROPIC LIFT INCREASES THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE PIEDMONT            
AND UPSLOPE AREAS SHOULD SEE THE BEST CHANCES OF PRECIP THROUGH                 
THE EVENING HOURS. ISSUED A LAKE WIND ADISORY FOR THE SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS        
TODAY AS PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTEN RAPIDLY WITH DEEPENING WESTERN               
LOW.                                                                            
A RELATIVE MINIMA IN ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY                
MORNING AS RETREATING SFC HIGH REDUCES LOW LEVEL LIFT. DECENT CONVERGENCE       
ZONE SETS UP ACROSS EASTERN TENNESSEE MONDAY AFTERNOON AND WILL BE              
SHIFTED EAST AS UPPER TROF SWINGS OUT OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS. WILL               
CONFINE LIKELY POPS TO THE MOUNTAINS MONDAY AFTERNOON AND SHIFT                 
EAST DURNING THE EVENING. SOME THUNDER IS STILL ANTICIPATED AS H85              
JET REACHES 50 KTS AND UPPER DIVERGENCE MAXIMIXES. ALSO...HIGH                  
DEWPOINTS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS SHOULD MAKE DYNAMIC LIFTING MORE                 
EFFICIENT AS WELL. EXPECT PRE-FRONTAL ACTIVITY TO CROSS THE CWFA                
THROUGH TUESDAY AND GENERALLY WEAKEN...HOWEVER AREAL COVERAGE                   
SHOULD BE HIGH ENOUGH TO KEEP POPS FAIRLY HIGH.                                 
LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...                                       
COOL/DRY HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND FRONT SETTLES OVER AREA WED/THU.                  
ANOTHER FRONT REINFORCES COOL AIR FROM NW THU NIGHT...ACCOMPANIED BY            
ONLY MEAGER MOISTURE. COOLER/DRIER RIDGE OF A MORE NORTHERLY SOURCE             
REGION MOVES INTO AREA SAT.                                                     
AVIATION...                                                                     
LLVL ISENTROPIC LIFT AND MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD NORTH OVER             
A WEDGED AIR MASS LATE TONIGHT AND TOMORROW. CAD CONDITIONS ARE                 
EXPECTED TO MATURE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED              
TO GRADUALLY BECOME IFR AFTER 18Z SAT. IN ADDITION...DZ AND -RA                 
SHOULD DEVELOP OVER THE TERMINALS DURING THE LATE MORNING AND LATE              
AFTERNOON RESPECTIVELY AND REMAIN THROUGH THE REST OF THE TAF                   
PERIOD.                                                                         
&&                                                                              
.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
GA...NONE.                                                                      
NC...LAKE WIND ADVISORY FOR NCZ051-052-058-059-062>064 UNTIL 6 PM               
     SUNDAY.                                                                    
SC...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHORT TERM...DEO                                                                
</PRE></TT></td>   sc                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC                                          
916 AM EST SUN NOV 27 2005                                                      
.SHORT TERM /THIS AFTERNOON/...A STRONG WEDGING PATTERN IS IN PLACE             
THIS MRNG WITH LGT PCPN OVR THE MIDLANDS AND PEE DEE HELPING TO                 
REINFORCE IT. HAVE SERIOUS DOUBTS THAT THE WEDGE WL BREAK DOWN AS               
QUICKLY AS WHAT THE NAM AND GFS SOLNS SUGGEST ESP GIVEN THAT SFC                
PRESSURES ARE STILL RISING INLAND. PLAN TO STICK CLOSER TO THE                  
LATEST RUC OUTPUT WHICH KEEPS THE WEDGE FIRMLY IN PLACE THROUGH THE             
AFTN AND HOLDS THE COASTAL TROF OVR THE COASTAL WTRS. FOR THIS                  
REASON...WE WL LWR TEMPS BY 10-15 DEGS AND INCR CLOUD COVER TO                  
CLOUDY ALL AREAS WITH THE MRNG UPDATE. CONTD WK ISENTROPIC LIFT WL              
KEEP A CHANCE FOR LGT PCPN GOING THROUGH THE DAY WITH A FAIRLY HIGH             
POTENTIAL FOR DRIZZLE. THANKS FFC/ILM/CAE FOR THE COORD.                        
&&                                                                              
.MARINE...TRICKY FCST THIS MRNG WITH THE COASTAL TROF BASICALLY                 
BISECTING THE NEARSHORE WTRS. WNDS AT 41004 AND THE TYBEE TWRS ARE              
SELY WHILE THE VARIOUS CARO-COOPS SITES ALONG THE SC COAST ARE                  
SOLIDLY N TO NE. WITH THE COASTAL TROF NOT XPCTD TO MOVE MUCH                   
FARTHER TO THE W TDA...PLAN TO SLIT THE NEARSHORE WTRS WND FCST                 
SHOWING NE WNDS WITHIN 10 NM OF THE COAST AND SE WNDS BEYOND 10 NM.             
SEAS AT SPAG1 HAVE DROPPED BELOW 5 FT FOR THE FIRST TIME IN SEVERAL             
HRS AFTER PEAKING AROUND 7 FT AROUND 2 AM. SUSPECT SEAS HAVE DROPPED            
BELOW 6 FT ACROSS MUCH OF THE GA OFFSHORE WTRS SO WL PUSH BACK THE              
BEGINNING TIME OF THE SCA INTO TNGT AS IT DOES NOT APPEAR THAT SCA              
CONDITIONS WL BE MET THIS AFTN INTO THIS EVNG. THANKS OPC FOR THE               
COORD.                                                                          
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...HAVE RECENTLY UPDATED BOTH TERMINALS FOR MUCH MORE                  
PESSIMISTIC CONDITIONS OVR THE NXT 6-8 HRS. STRONG WEDGE WL KEEP IFR            
AND LOW END MVFR CIGS GOING FOR MUCH OF THE DAY AS THE MODELS APPEAR            
TOO QUICK IN BREAKING DOWN THE WEDGE THIS AFTN. WL LIKELY MAKE                  
ADDITIONAL ADJUSTMENTS WITH 18Z TAF CYCLE.                                      
&&                                                                              
.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
GA...NONE.                                                                      
SC...NONE.                                                                      
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS BEGINNING                      
          TONIGHT FOR AMZ374.                                                   
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
ST                                                                              
</PRE></TT></td>   sc                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR SOUTHEAST SD/SOUTHWEST MN/NORTHWEST IA             
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD                                         
907 PM CST SUN NOV 27 2005                                                      
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
VERY STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE DEEPENING OVER NE KS/SE NE AT              
0230Z. FIRST BAND OF PRECIPITATION HAS SPREAD ACROSS THE CWA...AND              
HAS LINED UP FROM AROUND ABR TO HON TO 9V9...BUT WAS WEAKENING JUST             
A SMIDGE AS IT GETS PRETTY FAR AWAY FROM THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL                   
FORCING. ANOTHER ROUND OF PRECIPITATION SPREADING NORTHWEST INTO THE            
CWA AS STRONG MID LEVEL COLD ADVECTION SPREADS NORTH. TOP SOUNDING              
IN THE 750-500MB LAYER WAS ABOUT 6-8 DEGREES C COLDER THAN OAX. THIS            
ALLOWED A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP AND MOVE INTO NW IA.                 
SO...THIS BRINGS ABOUT A FEW INTERESTING QUESTIONS. THE FIRST IS HOW            
LONG WILL THE LOW LEVEL WARM LAYER REMAIN IN TACT AND THE SECOND IS             
AS THIS COLD ADVECTION ALOFT MOVES IN...WILL WE BECOME UNSTABLE                 
ENOUGH TO GO CONVECTIVE AS UPPER VORT MAX REORGANIZES AND DEEPENS               
OVER WESTERN IA. IF WE DO GO CONVECTIVE...LOW LEVEL BOUNDARY AND                
COLD AIR CLOSE ENOUGH THAT CONVECTION WOULD LIKELY COOL THINGS                  
QUICKLY...AND BRING ABOUT A RAPID CHANGE OVER TO SNOW. IF WE DO NOT             
GO CONVECTIVE...HEAVIEST SNOW SHOULD REMAIN CLOSE TO WHERE LATEST               
FORECAST SUGGESTS. BOTH THE ETA AND RUC HINT AT POSSIBLE CONVECTION             
DEVELOPING OVER EASTERN NEBRASKA AROUND 09Z AS UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS             
STRENGTHEN AND SHIFT NORTH. FEEL THAT THIS WILL PROBABLY BRING ABOUT            
THE START OF SNOW TO THE AREA...AND SPREAD NORTH AND WEST FROM NEAR             
THIS CONVECTION.                                                                
SO...WITH ALL OF THIS IN MIND...FEEL THAT THE FAR EASTERN CWA WILL              
PROBABLY BECOME COLD ENOUGH AT THE SFC FOR FREEZING RAIN LATE                   
TONIGHT...AND LOW LEVELS WILL JUST WARM ENOUGH FOR LIQUID. WHILE                
THERE IS SOME RELATIVELY UNSTABLE AIR ALONG AND EAST OF THE LOW                 
LEVEL BOUNDARY...THE INFERRED ADVECTION OF THE LAPSE RATES IS NOT               
VERY STRONG...UNLIKE WHAT HAPPENED LATE THIS AFTERNOON IN SE NE/NE              
KS WHERE STRONG ADVECTION OCCURRED. THIS STILL LEAVES A SWATH OF                
VERY HEAVY SNOW RIGHT THROUGH THE HEART OF THE CWA. MAY TAPER OFF               
AMOUNTS A BIT OVER THE FAR WESTERN CWA WHERE IT HAS BEEN SLOWER TO              
SWITCH TO RAIN AND MAY BOOST AMOUNTS A BIT UP THE I29 CORRIDOR WHERE            
SOME OF THIS CONVECTIVE PRECIP THAT MAY DEVELOP IN NE NEBRASKA LATE             
TONIGHT COULD ALLOW FOR SOME ADDITIONAL COOLING. BELIEVE THAT THE               
HEAVIEST SNOW BAND WILL SET UP SOMEWHERE BETWEEN FSD AND HON AND                
EXIST FROM ABOUT 09Z MON THROUGH 03Z TUE. QPF TOTALS VARY A BIT FROM            
THE ETA TO THE GFS...BUT STILL SUPPORTING 8 TO 14 INCHES AFTER THE              
TRANSITION. STILL WILL BE MAJOR CONCERNS FOR FREEING RAIN DURING THE            
TRANSITION PERIOD WHEN THIS BAND DEVELOPS AND WILL CONTINUE STRONG              
WORDING FOR ICING.                                                              
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION...                                                             
COMPLEX FORECAST WITH LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER CENTRAL KANSAS                   
UNDERGOING RAPID INTENSIFICATION. HAVE SIDED MAINLY WITH THE GFS AS             
IT HAS BEEN HANDLING THE SYSTEM WELL AS OF LATE. INVERTED TROUGH                
EXTENDING FROM LOW CENTER NORTHWARD TO MESO LOW CENTERED JUST SOUTH             
AND EAST OF KFSD. AREAS EAST OF INVERTED TROUGH REMAINING EXTREMELY             
BALMY WITH TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS IN THE LOW 50S. HAVE SEEN A              
FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA...AND                 
EXPECT TREND TO CONTINUE AS CONVECTION IN NEBRASKA AND IOWA SURGES              
NORTH. FURTHER NORTH AND WEST...COLD AIR UNDERCUTTING WARM AIR ALOFT            
 CREATING WIDESPREAD AREA OF FREEZING RAIN ACROSS CENTRAL SD.                   
NUMEROUS REPORTS OF TRAFFIC PROBLEMS WEST OF MITCHELL ALONG                     
I-90...AND EXPECT TREND TO CONTINUE THROUGH EVENING HOURS. EXPECT               
PRECIP TO GRADUALLY CHANGE OVER TO SNOW THROUGHOUT THE EVENING HOURS            
IN THE MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY...WHILE AREAS EAST REMAIN RAIN/FREEZING            
RAIN.                                                                           
FREEZING RAIN WILL MAKE IT TO I-29 CORRIDOR TOMORROW MORNING PRIOR              
TO SWITCHING OVER TO SNOW. HAVE FOCUSED BULK OF PRECIP WITH TROWAL              
FORECAST BY THE GFS OVER JAMES RIVER VALLEY. KEPT PRECIP ACROSS                 
NORTHWEST IOWA MAINLY RAIN THROUGHOUT THE DAY ON MONDAY AS WARM AIR             
GRADUALLY WORKS EAST. TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY FALL THROUGHOUT THE              
DAY UNDER STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW.                                                
EVENT GRADUALLY COMES TO AN END MONDAY NIGHT WITH STRONG NORTHWEST              
WINDS SLOWLY SUBSIDING.  TUESDAY WILL BE AN INBETWEEN DAY AHEAD OF              
THE NEXT SYSTEM PROGGED TO AFFECT THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY.                        
IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD...ANOTHER S/W WL AFFECT CWA ON WED BRINGING              
SFC WAVE ACRS CNTRL PLAINS. DECENT FRONTLGEN WITH THIS SYSTEM BUT               
THE QUESTION IS WHERE IT WL SET UP. ETA HAS THIS LOCATED FURTHER S              
ACRS NEB WHILE GFS HAS IT MOVE ACRS CWA. PRECIP WL BE SNOW BUT WITH             
QUESTION ON WHERE THE PRECIP WL BE...WL LEAVE CHC OF SNOW IN FCST               
AND NOT GO LIKELY ATTM DUE TO UNCERTAINTY.                                      
TEMPS WL REMAIN WELL BELOW NORM THRU PD WITH SNOW COVER HOLDING                 
TEMPS DOWN ESPEC WRN CWA. COLDEST AIR SHUD MOVE IN THU INTO FRI WITH            
BLO ZERO TEMPS EXPECTED OVER SNOW COVERED AREAS OF JAMES RVR VALLEY.            
ANOTHER S/W SAT BUT WL LEAVE DRY FOR NOW DO TO THE UNCERTAINTY OF               
ITS ACTUAL EXISTANCE THAT FAR OUT.                                              
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...LOW MVFR OR IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE PREVELANT ACROSS                 
ENTIRE CWA THROUGHOUT PD.  BIGGEST QUESTION OR PROBLEM WILL BE                  
FORECASTING PRECIP CHANGE OVER.  EXPECT FREEZING RAIN TO END FIRST              
IN HON AS COLDER AIR ALOFT MOVES IN.  KFSD AND KSUX SHOULD SEE FZRA             
AFTER 09Z BUT SHUD NOT EXPERIENCE A PROLONGED PERIOD AS IS KHON AND             
KMHE.                                                                           
&&                                                                              
.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
SD...WINTER STORM WARNING THRU 06Z TUES W OF A BKX TO YKN LINE                  
     WINTER STORM WARNING 09Z THRU 06Z TUES ALONG A LINE FM MOOODY              
     TO MINNEHAHA TO CLAY COUNTY                                                
MN...WINTER STORM WARNING 09Z TO 06Z TUE LINCOLN CTY                            
MN...WINTER WX ADVISORY REST OF SW MN 12Z MON TO 06Z TUES                       
IA...WINTER WX ADVY 12Z MON TO 06Z TUES FOR NW IA ALONG I29 AND                 
     OSCEOLA AND DICKINSON CTYSSTORM WATCH FROM 6 AM MONDAY TO IA.              
NE...WINTER STORM WX ADVY 12Z MON TO 06Z TUES DIXON AND DAKOTA                  
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</PRE></TT></td>   sd                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTION                                           
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX                                  
643 PM CST SUN NOV 27 2005                                                      
.UPDATE...                                                                      
HAVE UPDATED TO INCLUDE MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE                     
EASTERN COUNTIES. STORMS ARE BACKBUILDING TO THE SOUTHWEST ALONG                
THE COLD AS SOMEWHAT DEEPER MOISTURE RESIDES OVER THOSE FAR                     
EASTERN COUNTIES AS INDICATED ON RUC. IN ADDITION, HAVE EXTENDED                
RED FLAG WARNINGS FOR THE HILL COUNTRY AND RIO GRANDE PLAINS                    
OVERNIGHT AND UPGRADED FIRE WEATHER WATCH TO RED FLAG WARNING TO                
THE REMAINDER OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS ON MONDAY. OTHERWISE, ONLY                 
OTHER CHANGES TO TEMPERATURE, DEWPOINT, WIND AND RELATED GRIDS TO               
ACCOUNT FOR ONGOING TRENDS.                                                     
PREV DISCUSSION... (ISSUED 253 PM CST SUN NOV 27 2005)                          
DISCUSSION...                                                                   
DOWNSLOPING SOUTHWEST WINDS AT THE SFC AND IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER HAVE           
RESULTED IN RECORD HEAT THIS AFTERNOON. THE OLD RECORD OF 84 DEGREES            
HAS BEEN BROKEN AT SAN ANTONIO AND AT AUSTIN/BERGSTROM. READINGS IN             
THE LOWER 90S WERE REPORTED AT PIEDRAS NEGRAS, MEXICO ACROSS THE                
RIVER FROM EAGLE PASS. HOWEVER RELIEF FROM THE HEAT IS ON THE WAY. A            
COLD FRONT LOCATED ACROSS NORTHWEST TEXAS WILL MOVE INTO THE HILL               
COUNTRY LATER TONIGHT AND CLEAR THE TEXAS COAST BY MONDAY MORNING.              
THE FROPA ACROSS THE CWFA WILL BE DRY...ONLY ACCOMPANIED BY A                   
BAND OF MID LEVEL CLOUDS.                                                       
MONDAY WILL BE COOLER IN SPITE OF ABUNDANT SUNSHINE DUE TO STRONG               
CAA RIDING ON NORTHWEST SFC WINDS. MONDAY NIGHT A FREEZE IS LIKELY              
ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY AND ADJACENT AREAS OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS               
AS SFC WINDS DIMINISH AND RADIATIONAL COOLING ENSUES.                           
GULF MOISTURE AND ASSOCIATED CLOUDS RETURN TO THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY           
AS THE SFC HIGH SHIFTS EASTWARD. THE NEXT FROPA IS FCST FOR THURSDAY            
WITH PCPN LIMITED TO THE CLIMATOLOGICALLY FAVORED EAST AND SOUTHEAST            
COUNTIES.                                                                       
OF INTEREST...BLOWING DUST IS OCCURRING ACROSS THE TRANS PECOS AND              
BIG BEND REGIONS THIS AFTERNOON. SOME OF THIS SUSPENDED PARTICULATE             
MATTER MAY MOVE INTO THE EDWARDS PLATEAU AND WESTERN HILL COUNTRY               
TONIGHT.                                                                        
THE RED FLAG WARNING WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 6 PM THIS EVENING             
AS WINDS DIMINISH TO BELOW WARNING CRITERIA. A FIRE WEATHER WATCH               
REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR MONDAY FOR ALL OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS AND                 
THE HILL COUNTRY DUE TO LOWERING HUMIDITIES AND STRONG NORTHWEST                
WINDS.                                                                          
&&                                                                              
.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 4 PM MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES:                  
ATASCOSA... BURNET... DIMMIT... EDWARDS... FRIO... GILLESPIE...                 
KERR... KINNEY... LLANO... MAVERICK... REAL... UVALDE... VAL                    
VERDE... AND ZAVALA.                                                            
RED FLAG WARNING FROM 9 AM MONDAY TO 4 PM MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING              
COUNTIES: BANDERA... BASTROP... BEXAR... BLANCO... CALDWELL...                  
COMAL... DE WITT... FAYETTE... GONZALES... GUADALUPE... HAYS...                 
KARNES... KENDALL... LAVACA... LEE... MEDINA... TRAVIS...                       
WILLIAMSON... AND WILSON.                                                       
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
04/18                                                                           
</PRE></TT></td>   tx                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX                                  
638 PM CST SUN NOV 27 2005                                                      
.UPDATE...                                                                      
HAVE UPDATED TO INCLUDE MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS LEE,                    
FAYETTE, AND LAVACA COUNTIES. STORMS ARE BACKBUILDING TO THE                    
SOUTHWEST ALONG THE COLD AS SOMEWHAT DEEPER MOISTURE RESIDES OVER               
THOSE FAR EASTERN COUNTIES AS INDICATED ON RUC. IN ADDITION, HAVE               
EXTENDED RED FLAG WARNINGS FOR THE HILL COUNTRY AND RIO GRANDE                  
PLAINS OVERNIGHT AND UPGRADED FIRE WEATHER WATCH TO RED FLAG                    
WARNING TO THE REMAINDER OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS ON MONDAY.                      
OTHERWISE, ONLY OTHER CHANGES TO TEMPERATURE, DEWPOINT, WIND AND                
RELATED GRIDS TO ACCOUNT FOR ONGOING TRENDS.                                    
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION... (ISSUED 253 PM CST SUN NOV 27 2005)                         
DISCUSSION...                                                                   
DOWNSLOPING SOUTHWEST WINDS AT THE SFC AND IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER HAVE           
RESULTED IN RECORD HEAT THIS AFTERNOON. THE OLD RECORD OF 84 DEGREES            
HAS BEEN BROKEN AT SAN ANTONIO AND AT AUSTIN/BERGSTROM. READINGS IN             
THE LOWER 90S WERE REPORTED AT PIEDRAS NEGRAS, MEXICO ACROSS THE                
RIVER FROM EAGLE PASS. HOWEVER RELIEF FROM THE HEAT IS ON THE WAY. A            
COLD FRONT LOCATED ACROSS NORTHWEST TEXAS WILL MOVE INTO THE HILL               
COUNTRY LATER TONIGHT AND CLEAR THE TEXAS COAST BY MONDAY MORNING.              
THE FROPA ACROSS THE CWFA WILL BE DRY...ONLY ACCOMPANIED BY A                   
BAND OF MID LEVEL CLOUDS.                                                       
MONDAY WILL BE COOLER IN SPITE OF ABUNDANT SUNSHINE DUE TO STRONG               
CAA RIDING ON NORTHWEST SFC WINDS. MONDAY NIGHT A FREEZE IS LIKELY              
ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY AND ADJACENT AREAS OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS               
AS SFC WINDS DIMINISH AND RADIATIONAL COOLING ENSUES.                           
GULF MOISTURE AND ASSOCIATED CLOUDS RETURN TO THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY           
AS THE SFC HIGH SHIFTS EASTWARD. THE NEXT FROPA IS FCST FOR THURSDAY            
WITH PCPN LIMITED TO THE CLIMATOLOGICALLY FAVORED EAST AND SOUTHEAST            
COUNTIES.                                                                       
OF INTEREST...BLOWING DUST IS OCCURRING ACROSS THE TRANS PECOS AND              
BIG BEND REGIONS THIS AFTERNOON. SOME OF THIS SUSPENDED PARTICULATE             
MATTER MAY MOVE INTO THE EDWARDS PLATEAU AND WESTERN HILL COUNTRY               
TONIGHT.                                                                        
THE RED FLAG WARNING WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 6 PM THIS EVENING             
AS WINDS DIMINISH TO BELOW WARNING CRITERIA. A FIRE WEATHER WATCH               
REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR MONDAY FOR ALL OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS AND                 
THE HILL COUNTRY DUE TO LOWERING HUMIDITIES AND STRONG NORTHWEST                
WINDS.                                                                          
&&                                                                              
.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 4 PM MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES:                  
ATASCOSA... BURNET... DIMMIT... EDWARDS... FRIO... GILLESPIE...                 
KERR... KINNEY... LLANO... MAVERICK... REAL... UVALDE... VAL                    
VERDE... AND ZAVALA.                                                            
RED FLAG WARNING FROM 9 AM MONDAY TO 4 PM MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING              
COUNTIES: BANDERA... BASTROP... BEXAR... BLANCO... CALDWELL...                  
COMAL... DE WITT... FAYETTE... GONZALES... GUADALUPE... HAYS...                 
KARNES... KENDALL... LAVACA... LEE... MEDINA... TRAVIS...                       
WILLIAMSON... AND WILSON.                                                       
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
04/18                                                                           
</PRE></TT></td>   tx                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT                                      
420 AM MST SUN NOV 27 2005                                                      
.SYNOPSIS...A COLD...MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS WILL LINGER OVER THE            
AREA TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY RETURN MONDAY...BEFORE                   
ANOTHER PACIFIC SYSTEM SPREADS MOISTURE INTO THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT              
INTO TUESDAY.                                                                   
&&                                                                              
.DISCUSSION...DEEPENING UPPER LOW EVIDENT IN EARLY MORNING WATER                
VAPOR IMAGERY OVER THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES WITH 160KT 250MB JET                    
EXTENDING ALONG BACK SIDE OF LARGER SCALE CYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS NV               
INTO SOUTHERN AZ. VERY COLD AIR ALOFT /-32C AT 500MB AND -15C AT                
700MB PER RUC/ IN PLACE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING. THIS             
IS RESULTING IN AN UNSTABLE AIRMASS AND ALLOWING FOR DEVELOPMENT OF             
BANDED PRECIPITATION OVER THE GREAT SALT LAKE. THESE BANDS HAVE BEEN            
TRACKING SOUTHWARDS INTO EASTERN TOOELE COUNTY AND WESTERN SALT LAKE            
COUNTY OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS...AND EXPECT THESE TRAJECTORIES TO               
GENERALLY CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS AS LITTLE CHANGE IN                
WIND DIRECTION ALOFT IS INDICATED BY MODELS. HAVE CONTINUED HEAVY               
SNOW WARNING FOR ZONES 3 AND 4...WITH HEAVIEST SNOW EXPECTED ACROSS             
WESTERN SALT LAKE COUNTY. GIVEN TRAJECTORIES OFF LAKE...HAVE                    
CANCELED HEAVY SNOW WARNING FOR NORTHERN WASATCH FRONT. OTHERWISE               
GIVEN UNSTABLE AIRMASS AND NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT EXPECT SNOW TO              
CONTINUE ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN OF NORTHERN AND CENTRAL UT...AND HAVE            
CONTINUED GOING HEAVY SNOW WARNING THERE AS WELL. IN FACT SNOW                  
SHOWERS WILL LIKELY REMAIN ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN THROUGH MUCH OF THE            
DAY...AS PROG SOUNDINGS FROM NAM INDICATE WARMING ALOFT DOES NOT                
COMMENCE UNTIL THIS EVENING ACROSS NORTHERN UT. SURFACE HIGH                    
EXPECTED TO BRIEFLY SETTLE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT...AND               
GIVEN RECENT SNOWFALL EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO FALL BELOW GUIDANCE                
VALUES PARTICULARLY IN SHELTERED AREAS.                                         
AFTER TODAY...AN ACTIVE WEEK APPEARS IN STORE FOR THE MOUNTAINS OF              
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL UTAH. SHORTWAVE RIDGING PROGGED TO BUILD ACROSS            
THE AREA MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. AS THIS RIDGE AXIS PASSES EAST OF            
FORECAST AREA...STRONG WARM ADVECTION WILL LEAD TO ANOTHER ROUND OF             
SNOWFALL ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL MOUNTAINS MONDAY NIGHT INTO                
TUESDAY. THIS IS IN ADVANCE OF A NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE WHICH                
WILL BRUSH THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT...AND PUSH A COLD FRONT INTO                  
NORTHERN UTAH WEDNESDAY MORNING. MOIST WEST SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW LOOKS            
TO REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH FRIDAY...BEFORE YET ANOTHER                   
SHORTWAVE TROUGH PROGGED TO IMPACT THE AREA LATE FRIDAY INTO                    
SATURDAY.                                                                       
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...A MOIST NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS                   
MORNING. COINCIDENTALLY THIS IS THE CLIMATOLOGICAL PEAK OF RECEIVING            
LAKE-ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS AT SLC. EVEN SO THE TIMING OF SUCH SNOW              
SHOWERS OR SQUALLS REMAINS DIFFICULT SO WILL HAVE TO BROAD BRUSH                
WITH TEMPORARY MVFR CONDITIONS BUT THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR OCCASIONAL            
IFR AND LIFR...BUT THEIR DURATIONS SHOULD BE LESS THAN 15 MIN.                  
&&                                                                              
.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
UT...HEAVY SNOW WARNING THROUGH NOON ZONES UTZ002>004-006>010-017.              
     SNOW ADVISORY THROUGH NOON ZONES UTZ015-016.                               
     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM ZONE UTZ005.                                      
WY...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
PUBLIC...SEAMAN                                                                 
AVIATION...STRUTHWOLF                                                           
</PRE></TT></td>   ut                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA                                       
430 AM EST MON NOV 28 2005                                                      
.SHORT TERM...                                                                  
TODAY AND TONIGHT.                                                              
DEEP SFC LOW PRESSURE WAS LOCATED OVER NORTHEAST KANSAS/SOUTHEAST               
NEBRASKA AT 08Z. AN ATTENDANT COLD FRONT FROM THIS LOW EXTENDED                 
SOUTHEAST INTO WRN MISSOURI...WRN ARKANSAS...WRN LOUISIANA...THEN               
INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. THE FRONT WILL BE THE MAIN WEATHER PLAYER              
FOR THE SHORT TERM FORECAST.                                                    
LATEST RUC40 AND 06Z NAM INDICATE A STRONG 850 MB LLJ ACROSS                    
ILLINOIS...IN WHICH THE NOSE OF THE JET WAS PRODUCING SPEED                     
CONVERGENCE OVER NRN ILLINOIS ATTM. MOSAIC RADAR DEPICTED                       
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS OVER ILLINOIS. THE                
BULK OF THIS PCPN WILL MOVE NORTH INTO WISCONSIN THIS                           
MORNING...CLIPPING THE WRN PERIPHERY OF THE FCST AREAS. ELSEWHERE               
FOR THIS MORNING...BROAD...MOIST ASCENT WILL JUST RESULT IN A                   
CHANCE OF SHOWERS.                                                              
FOR THIS AFTERNOON...AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SLOWLY                 
NORTHEAST TO NEAR THE ILLINOIS/INDIANA BORDER BY 18Z/1 PM EST. SFC              
TO 850 MB CONVERGENCE AHEAD OF THE FRONT...COUPLED WITH UPR LVL                 
DYNAMICAL LIFT WILL RESULT IN A BAND OF SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED                    
THUNDERSTORMS. WITH VERY STRONG WINDS ALOFT...AROUND 60 MPH AT 1500             
FEET ABOVE THE SFC...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF               
PRODUCING LOCAL WIND GUSTS AROUND 40 MPH...AND PERHAPS NEAR 60 MPH              
IN THE STRONGER STORMS. SWODY1 HIGHLIGHTS THIS POTENTIAL...AND WILL             
ALSO HIGHLIGHT THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED SEVERE IN THE HAZARDOUS               
WEATHER OUTLOOK. OTHERWISE...BAND OF SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED                       
THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE SLOWLY WEST TO EAST ACRS THE CWFA THIS                  
AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. MOST OF THE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM                
ACTIVITY SHOULD BE EAST OF THE CWFA AROUND MIDNIGHT OR SO.                      
ON ANOTHER NOTE...STRONG SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT TODAY WILL PRODUCE               
SOUTH WINDS BETWEEN 20 MPH AND 30 MPH. WILL NOT ISSUE A WIND                    
ADVISORY ATTM...BUT DAYSHIFT WILL HAVE TO MONITOR SFC                           
OBSERVATIONS/LATER FORECAST GUIDANCE SHOULD AN ADVISORY                         
BE WARRANTED.                                                                   
FINALLY...TEMPERATURES WILL BE A LITTLE TRICKY TODAY GIVEN STRONG               
LOW LVL THERMAL ADVECTION AND THE TIMING OF THE PRECIPITATION.                  
HAVE JUST TWEAKED CURRENT FCST TEMPS HERE AND THERE. HIGHS UPPER                
50S NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN...TO THE MID 60S FAR SOUTHEAST STILL LOOK GOOD.          
FOR TONIGHT...CURRENT FORECAST LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S WEST TO THE                
LOWER 40S EAST ARE ON TRACK.                                                    
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM...                                                                   
ON TUESDAY THE FRONT WILL BE OFF TO THE EAST AND THE CENTER OF THE              
LOW WILL BE AROUND LAKE SUPERIOR. NOT EXPECTING TOO MUCH PRECIP TO              
FALL ON TUESDAY. LOTS OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL STILL BE AROUND                
THEN...MAINLY FROM 850MB DOWN TO THE SFC. JUST A QUESTION ON HOW                
MUCH LIFT CAN BE GENERATED YET ON TUESDAY. ALSO ITS MARGINAL WHETHER            
THERE WILL BE ANY/MUCH ICE NUCLEATION. JUST DROPPED THE SHOWERS                 
ADJECTIVE FROM TUESDAY AND KEPT THE 25 PERCENT POP. STILL WRAP                  
AROUND MOISTURE TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW CONTINUES TO PULL AWAY FROM            
THE REGION. THEN WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT OUR CWA WILL BE IN              
BETWEEN SYSTEMS. ON THURSDAY THE MODELS ARE STILL MOVING AN UPPER               
LEVEL TROUGH THROUGH THE AREA. TEMPERATURE PROFILES AND THICKNESSES             
ARE COLD ENOUGH FOR THE PRECIP ON THURSDAY TO BE SNOW. WILL HAVE TO             
WAIT FOR THURSDAY TO GET CLOSER BUT AT THIS EARLY POINT THE GFS IS              
PUTTING OUT UP TO 3 INCHES OF SNOW...BUT OF COURSE THE GFS IS                   
USUALLY GENEROUS WITH ITS QPF. FRIDAY THEN THERE COULD BE SOME LAKE             
EFFECT SNOW WITH THE WIND OUT OF THE NORTHWEST AS A SURFACE HIGH                
PRESSURE RIDGE MOVES IN. SATURDAY AND SUNDAY THAT HIGH PRESSURE                 
RIDGE WILL BE IN PLACE. WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED BUT THE GFS IS                  
TRYING TO BRING IN SOME QPF LATE SUNDAY. BUT WITH MOST DAYS THROUGH             
OUT THE YEAR DRY...STAYED WITH CONSISTENCY FOR SUNDAY AND LEFT DRY.             
DID NOT SEE ANY MAJOR CHANGES FOR THE TUESDAY TO NEXT SUNDAY PERIOD             
TO WARRANT ANY MAJOR CHANGES TO THE TEMPERATURES.                               
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
DEEP SFC LOW WAS LOCATED OVER NORTHEAST KANSAS AT 05Z.  A COLD FRONT            
WAS ATTACHED TO THIS LOW...WHICH STRETCHED SOUTHEAST INTO WRN                   
ARKANSAS...WRN LA...THEN INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO.  THIS FRONT WILL              
BE THE MAIN WX MAKER AT THE TAF SITES FOR THIS FCST PACKAGE.                    
00Z GFS AND 00Z NAM WERE FAIRLY SIMILAR WITH THEIR SOLUTIONS IN                 
REGARDS TO THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT.  THE BIG DIFFERENCE FROM              
PREVIOUS RUNS IS THAT THE ONSET OF WIDESPREAD PCPN WILL BE SLOWER AS            
MODELS HAVE SHOWN A SLOWER FRONTAL PASSAGE SOLUTION.  THE FRONT WILL            
BE ACCOMPANIED BY STRONG LOW LVL CONVERGENCE AND UPR LVL DYNAMICAL              
SUPPORT/LIFT.  THUS...A BAND OF SHOWERS...AND EMBEDDED                          
THUNDERSTORMS...ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS INDIANA BETWEEN 15Z AND             
00Z TODAY.  THE BEST CHC FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY OCCUR AT KFWA            
AS IT WILL HAVE THE MOST TIME TO INCREASE ITS SFC TEMPS TO BECOME               
MORE UNSTABLE VERSUS KSBN.  IFR CONDITIONS IN SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS             
WILL BE FORECAST AS THE FRONT PROGRESSES ACRS THE REGION TODAY.                 
FOR TONIGHT...THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST WHILE THE                
DEEP SFC LOW BEGINS TO WEAKEN/FILL WITH TIME AS IT SHIFTS TOWARD                
LAKE SUPERIOR BY TUESDAY MORNING.  SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN            
MODERATE...SO SUSTAINED WINDS OF 12 TO 15 KNOTS WITH POSSIBLE HIGHER            
GUSTS WILL BE PLACED IN THE TAFS.  MVFR CIGS WILL ALSO OCCUR                    
...ESPECIALLY AT KFWA...WHERE LOW LVL MSTR WILL LINGER JUST BEHIND              
THE COLD FRONT.                                                                 
&&                                                                              
.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
IN...NONE.                                                                      
MI...NONE.                                                                      
OH...NONE.                                                                      
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR LMZ043-LMZ046.           
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHORT TERM...30                                                                 
LONG TERM....98                                                                 
AVIATION...30                                                                   
</PRE></TT></td>   in                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
330 AM EST MON NOV 28 2005                                                      
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS ARE DENSE FOG AND RAIN/TSRA CHANCES WITH                 
INCOMING SYSTEM AND LAKE EFFECT TOWARDS MID-WEEK.                               
CURRENT WEATHER...08Z WATER VAPOR LOOP AND RUC 500MB HEIGHT ANALYSIS            
SHOWED A CLASSIC SYSTEM OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS WITH A 500MB LOW                
CENTER OF 530 DAM NEAR MANHATTAN KANSAS. THE WARM CONVEYOR BELT CAN             
BE SEEN STRETCHING FROM MISSISSIPPI INTO SOUTHERN WISCONSIN. WITHIN             
THIS BELT...PROFILERS HAVE SHOWN 850MB WINDS OF 60-70KT...HIGHEST               
NEAR LINCOLN ILLINOIS. THESE WINDS HAVE TRANSPORTED MOISTURE FROM               
THE GULF OF MEXICO INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES...WITH PRECIPITABLE             
WATERS PER 00Z SOUNDINGS RISING TO 0.75 TO 0.90 OF AN INCH AT                   
MPX...GRB AND APX. THESE READINGS ARE ANYWHERE FROM 250-300 PERCENT             
OF NORMAL! SURFACE DEWPOINTS HAVE ALSO RISEN INTO THE 40S OVER MOST             
OF WISCONSIN AND MICHIGAN WITH AROUND 50 READINGS IN CHICAGO.                   
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN ALSO OCCURRING WITHIN THE WARM              
CONVEYOR BELT WHICH EXTEND ALL THE WAY INTO THE SOUTHERN HALVES OF              
MINNESOTA AND WISCONSIN. NEXT PORTION OF THE SYSTEM IS THE COLD                 
CONVEYOR BELT WHICH CAN BE SEEN ON WATER VAPOR WRAPPING WESTWARD                
ACROSS NEBRASKA AND INTO CENTRAL KANSAS. RAIN IN THIS BELT CHANGES              
OVER TO SNOW AROUND US-81. STIFF NORTHERLY WINDS HAVE BEEN OCCURRING            
ACROSS THE PLAINS WITH MANY LOCATIONS IN NEBRASKA AND KANSAS                    
REPORTING WIND GUSTS OF 45-55 KT. THESE WINDS ARE ON THE BACK SIDE              
OF A 987MB LOW NEAR ST JOSEPH MISSOURI. LAST FEATURE THAT IS VERY               
EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR IS THE DRY SLOT WHICH IS WHERE THE MAIN                  
SHRTWV IS LOCATED...STRETCHING FROM SE OKLAHOMA INTO SOUTH CENTRAL              
IOWA. PROFILERS SHOW 250MB WINDS ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE SHRTWV ON              
THE ORDER OF 100-120KT. CLOSER TO HOME...UPPER LEVEL RIDGING                    
CONTINUES TO BUILD OVER THE CWA IN ADVANCE OF THE DEEPENING                     
LOW...CUTTING OFF RAINFALL. WITH THE RECENT WARM RAIN AND DEWPOINTS             
IN THE LOW 40S...MANY LOCATIONS HAVE HAD DENSE FOG INCLUDE HERE AT              
OUR OFFICE AND AT THE HOUGHTON COUNTY AIRPORT. TEMPERATURES CONTINUE            
TO RISE WITH THE RISING DEWPOINTS WITH READINGS NOW IN THE LOW TO               
MID 40S.                                                                        
TODAY...UPPER RIDGE OVER UPPER MICHIGAN WILL BE BREAKING DOWN THIS              
MORNING AS THE UPPER LOW AND SHRTWV APPROACH. BY 00Z THE                        
NAM/GFS/UKMET SHOW THE TIP OF THE SHRTWV (OR THE DRY-SLOT AREA) INTO            
WESTERN UPPER MICHIGAN WITH THE UPPER LOW NEAR MASON CITY IOWA. THE             
SURFACE LOW IS PROGGED TO BECOME VERTICALLY STACKED WITH THE LOW BY             
00Z. AS THE RIDGE BREAKS DOWN...EXPECT THE SHOWERS TO OUR SW TO                 
OVERSPREAD THE CWA. THIS MAY HAPPEN AS EARLY AS 15Z. WITH THE AMOUNT            
OF MOISTURE ALREADY PRESENT...ONE MAY WONDER ABOUT THE HEAVY                    
RAINFALL POTENTIAL. IT IS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY OVER THE EASTERN                
U.P. WHERE THEY ARE PROGGED TO BE IN THE WARM CONVEYOR BELT. IN THE             
WESTERN AND CENTRAL SECTIONS...DRY SLOT APPROACHING SHOULD KEEP                 
RAINFALL AMOUNTS DOWN. HAVE KEPT IN THE MENTION OF THUNDER TOO AS               
SHOWALTER INDICES WITH THE RAIN ARE PROGGED TO BE 0-2C.                         
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO RISE THROUGHOUT THE DAY AS WARMER AND             
MOISTER AIR IS ADVECTED INTO THE AREA. HAVE WENT WITH THE HIGHER MET            
GUIDANCE WHICH IS ONLY A FEW DEGREES HIGHER THAN CURRENT FORECAST.              
RECORD HIGH FOR THE OFFICE IS 49 WHICH WE MAY GET CLOSE TO. CAN ONLY            
IMAGINE THAT WITH EVEN HIGHER TEMPERATURES MOVING IN ASSOCIATED WITH            
HIGHER DEWPOINTS...RESULTING IN MORE SNOWPACK MELTING...THAT THE                
DENSE FOG WILL PERSIST. MET AND FWC GUIDANCE FOR SAW SUGGEST DENSE              
FOG THROUGH 18Z. ALTHOUGH THE INCOMING RAINFALL MAY TEND TO BRING               
VISIBILITIES UP FOR A TIME...IT IS CONCEIVABLE THAT THE FOG WILL                
STAY DENSE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. FOR NOW HAVE LEFT THE DENSE FOG               
ADVISORY TIMING ALONE BUT DID EXTEND IT FOR THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA              
WHERE EASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW CONTINUES THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS.                
TONIGHT...DIFFERENCES AGAIN SHOW UP IN THE MODELS WITH THE TIMING               
AND TRACK OF THE UPPER AND SURFACE LOWS. PREFER AGAIN THE SLOWER                
UKMET WHICH HAS BEEN PERFORMING WELL WITH THIS SYSTEM SO FAR. UPPER             
LOW IS PROGGED TO MOVE TO EAU CLAIRE BY 12Z WITH THE ATTENDANT                  
SURFACE LOW NEAR DEVILS ISLAND. DRY SLOT ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHRTWV             
ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE UPPER LOW WILL EFFECTIVELY CUT OFF ALL THE              
SHOWERS. HOWEVER...WITH LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...AREAS OF                 
DRIZZLE WILL LIKELY DEVELOP. COLD AIR ADVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE             
UPPER LOW IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR ACROSS THE CWA THROUGH THE                       
NIGHT...HOWEVER NO SNOW IS EXPECTED AS THE -8C LAYER NEVER                      
SATURATES. WILL NOT MENTION ANY FREEZING DRIZZLE EITHER AS SURFACE              
TEMPS SHOULD STAY ABOVE FREEZING DUE TO LOW CLOUDS. AREAS OF FOG                
SHOULD PERSIST TOO DUE TO THE SNOWPACK...BUT DO NOT THINK IT WILL BE            
AS THICK WITH THE COLD AIR ADVECTION ON SOUTHWEST WINDS.                        
TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...UPPER AND SURFACE LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO             
SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR DURING THE DAY...ALLOWING COLD AIR             
ADVECTION TO CONTINUE. THIS COLD AIR ADVECTION PROCESS SHOULD SWITCH            
ANY PRECIPITATION OVER TO SNOW DURING THE MORNING HOURS. SOME OF THE            
COLD CONVEYOR BELT MOISTURE WILL LIKELY MOVE INTO THE WESTERN U.P.              
BY LATE MORNING...THEN HEAD INTO THE CENTRAL U.P. DURING THE                    
AFTERNOON. IN FACT...WITH 850MB TEMPS COOLING TO -10C OVER WESTERN              
LAKE SUPERIOR BY EVENING...LAKE ENHANCEMENT IS LIKELY TOO OVER THE              
WESTERN U.P.. HOWEVER...SINCE THE COLD AIR ADVECTION IS NOT                     
EXTREMELY DEEP AND THE SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT IS MOVING OUT...DO NOT               
EXPECT A LOT OF ACCUMULATION. HAVE PUT 2-3 INCHES IN GRIDS AT THE               
MOMENT. THIS COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL ALSO RESULT IN FALLING                     
TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE DAY...THEREFORE THE HIGH TEMPERATURES               
WILL OCCUR AT SUNRISE. NOTE THAT ANY WATER PRODUCED BY SNOWMELT OR              
RAINFALL WILL FREEZE TUESDAY AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY OVER THE WEST               
HALF OF THE U.P..                                                               
AS THE SYNOPTIC MOISTURE LIFTS OUT TUESDAY NIGHT AND 850MB TEMPS                
COOL A FEW MORE DEGREES...EXPECT PURE LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS OFF              
OF SUPERIOR TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT. SINCE WINDS ARE                      
WEST-NORTHWEST...MAIN AREAS TO RECEIVE THE SNOW WILL BE OVER THE                
WESTERN U.P. AND FROM THE PICTURE ROCKS EASTWARD. HAVE MAINTAINED               
THE LIKELY POPS FOR THESE AREAS. FOR THE INTERIOR...A FEW FLURRIES              
WILL BE THE RULE AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE STAYS BEHIND THE DEPARTING               
UPPER LOW. READINGS WILL BE MUCH COOLER TUESDAY NIGHT THAN TONIGHT              
DUE TO THE COLD AIR ADVECTION. CURRENT GOING LOWS LOOK FINE.                    
WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT...NEXT SHRTWV TROUGH MOVING INTO THE             
PACIFIC NW AT THE MOMENT IS PROGGED TO REACH MINNESOTA ON WEDNESDAY.            
ISENTROPIC LIFT AHEAD OF THIS TROUGH WILL LIKELY PRODUCE AN AREA OF             
SYNOPTIC LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. MUCH OF THIS SNOW               
WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL WEDNESDAY NIGHT SINCE WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGING              
IS PROGGED OVER THE CWA. HOWEVER...EXPECT LAKE EFFECT SNOWS TO                  
CONTINUE AS 850MB TEMPS REMAIN AROUND -14C AND LOW LEVEL FLOW                   
REMAINS OUT OF THE WEST-NORTHWEST.                                              
REST OF THE FORECAST LOOKS GOOD. SHRTWV TROUGH CROSSING THE AREA                
WEDNESDAY NIGHT IS SHOWN BY ALL EXTENDED MODELS TO PULL DOWN ANOTHER            
POLAR VORTEX (RIGHT NOW OVER HUDSON BAY) INTO SOUTHERN MANITOBA ON              
THURSDAY. THIS VORTEX IS THEN EXPECTED TO CROSS LAKE SUPERIOR                   
THURSDAY NIGHT...BRINGING DEEP MOISTURE AND COLDER 850MB TEMPS.                 
THEREFORE...THE IDEA OF A SIGNIFICANT LES EVENT FOR NW SNOWBELTS                
STILL LOOKS ON TRACK. IN FACT...SINCE THERE HAS BEEN QUITE A BIT OF             
CONSISTENCY REGARDING THIS SYSTEM...HAVE RAISED POPS EVEN FURTHER               
FOR THE LES THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT.                                       
&&                                                                              
.MQT...WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                           
  DENSE FOG ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON EST FOR                       
    MIZ002-004>007-009>014-084-085                                              
  DENSE FOG ADVISORY EXTENDED UNTIL 10 PM EST FOR MIZ001-003.                   
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
AJ                                                                              
</PRE></TT></td>   mi                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX                                  
1038 PM CST SUN NOV 27 2005                                                     
.UPDATE...                                                                      
COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE MOVED                  
SOUTH AND EAST OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS AT 10 PM. HAVE REMOVED POPS               
FROM FORECAST WHERE PREVIOUSLY UPDATED TO MENTION. AREA OF HIGH                 
STRATUS HAS FORMED BEHIND FRONT AND APPEARS TO BE FINALLY CLEARING              
FROM THE WEST, AS A RESULT, WILL SHOW CLEARING TREND DURING THE                 
OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH THE FAR EASTERN COUNTIES RETAINING MOSTLY                  
CLOUDY CONDITIONS THE LONGEST. DEWPOINTS HAVE DROPPED WELL BELOW                
ONGOING GRIDS INDICATED AND HAVE UPDATED TO CONTINUE THIS TREND.                
AS A RESULT, RED FLAG CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE RIO                    
GRANDE PLAINS AND MUCH OF THE HILL COUNTRY DURING THE OVERNIGHT                 
HOURS. TEMPERATURE AND WIND GRIDS GENERALLY ON TRACK WITH ONLY                  
MINOR ADJUSTMENTS.                                                              
OF NOTE, CLOUDINESS INDICATED AT SOME HILL COUNTRY TO RIO GRANDE                
OBSERVATION SITES IS ACTUALLY AN ELEVATED DUST LAYER FROM WEST                  
TEXAS.                                                                          
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION... (ISSUED 643 PM CST SUN NOV 27 2005)                         
UPDATE...                                                                       
HAVE UPDATED TO INCLUDE MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE                     
EASTERN COUNTIES. STORMS ARE BUILDING TO THE SOUTHWEST ALONG                    
THE COLD AS SOMEWHAT DEEPER MOISTURE RESIDES OVER THOSE FAR                     
EASTERN COUNTIES AS INDICATED ON RUC. IN ADDITION, HAVE EXTENDED                
RED FLAG WARNINGS FOR THE HILL COUNTRY AND RIO GRANDE PLAINS                    
OVERNIGHT AND UPGRADED FIRE WEATHER WATCH TO RED FLAG WARNING TO                
THE REMAINDER OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS ON MONDAY. OTHERWISE, ONLY                 
OTHER CHANGES TO TEMPERATURE, DEWPOINT, WIND AND RELATED GRIDS TO               
ACCOUNT FOR ONGOING TRENDS.                                                     
PREV DISCUSSION... (ISSUED 253 PM CST SUN NOV 27 2005)                          
DISCUSSION...                                                                   
DOWNSLOPING SOUTHWEST WINDS AT THE SFC AND IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER HAVE           
RESULTED IN RECORD HEAT THIS AFTERNOON. THE OLD RECORD OF 84 DEGREES            
HAS BEEN BROKEN AT SAN ANTONIO AND AT AUSTIN/BERGSTROM. READINGS IN             
THE LOWER 90S WERE REPORTED AT PIEDRAS NEGRAS, MEXICO ACROSS THE                
RIVER FROM EAGLE PASS. HOWEVER RELIEF FROM THE HEAT IS ON THE WAY. A            
COLD FRONT LOCATED ACROSS NORTHWEST TEXAS WILL MOVE INTO THE HILL               
COUNTRY LATER TONIGHT AND CLEAR THE TEXAS COAST BY MONDAY MORNING.              
THE FROPA ACROSS THE CWFA WILL BE DRY...ONLY ACCOMPANIED BY A                   
BAND OF MID LEVEL CLOUDS.                                                       
MONDAY WILL BE COOLER IN SPITE OF ABUNDANT SUNSHINE DUE TO STRONG               
CAA RIDING ON NORTHWEST SFC WINDS. MONDAY NIGHT A FREEZE IS LIKELY              
ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY AND ADJACENT AREAS OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS               
AS SFC WINDS DIMINISH AND RADIATIONAL COOLING ENSUES.                           
GULF MOISTURE AND ASSOCIATED CLOUDS RETURN TO THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY           
AS THE SFC HIGH SHIFTS EASTWARD. THE NEXT FROPA IS FCST FOR THURSDAY            
WITH PCPN LIMITED TO THE CLIMATOLOGICALLY FAVORED EAST AND SOUTHEAST            
COUNTIES.                                                                       
OF INTEREST...BLOWING DUST IS OCCURRING ACROSS THE TRANS PECOS AND              
BIG BEND REGIONS THIS AFTERNOON. SOME OF THIS SUSPENDED PARTICULATE             
MATTER MAY MOVE INTO THE EDWARDS PLATEAU AND WESTERN HILL COUNTRY               
TONIGHT.                                                                        
THE RED FLAG WARNING WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 6 PM THIS EVENING             
AS WINDS DIMINISH TO BELOW WARNING CRITERIA. A FIRE WEATHER WATCH               
REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR MONDAY FOR ALL OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS AND                 
THE HILL COUNTRY DUE TO LOWERING HUMIDITIES AND STRONG NORTHWEST                
WINDS.                                                                          
&&                                                                              
.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 4 PM MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES:                  
ATASCOSA... BURNET... DIMMIT... EDWARDS... FRIO... GILLESPIE...                 
KERR... KINNEY... LLANO... MAVERICK... REAL... UVALDE... VAL                    
VERDE... AND ZAVALA.                                                            
RED FLAG WARNING FROM 9 AM MONDAY TO 4 PM MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING              
COUNTIES: BANDERA... BASTROP... BEXAR... BLANCO... CALDWELL...                  
COMAL... DE WITT... FAYETTE... GONZALES... GUADALUPE... HAYS...                 
KARNES... KENDALL... LAVACA... LEE... MEDINA... TRAVIS...                       
WILLIAMSON... AND WILSON.                                                       
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
04/18                                                                           
</PRE></TT></td>   tx                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI                                           
333 AM CST MON NOV 28 2005                                                      
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT                                     
THE CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS THIS MORNING...CHANGE OVER FROM RAIN                
TO SNOW TONIGHT...AND TEMPERATURES TODAY AND TUESDAY ARE THE MAIN               
FORECAST CONCERNS WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE.                                   
AT 3 AM...A RATHER STRONG SURFACE LOW WAS LOCATED OVER KANSAS                   
CITY. THE NOVEMBER 28TH 00Z MODELS ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT              
THIS LOW PRESSURE AREA WILL GRADUALLY FILL AS IT MOVES NORTHEAST                
ACROSS WESTERN IOWA TODAY...AND SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA AND WESTERN                 
AND NORTHERN WISCONSIN TONIGHT. THIS MOTION IS SLIGHTLY SLOWER                  
THAN PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS.                                                       
A VERY PRONOUNCED DRY SLOT SHOWS UP IN BOTH THE INFRARED AND WATER              
VAPOR IMAGERY. THE MODELS ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THIS DRY              
SLOT WILL MOVE THROUGH OUR AREA THIS MORNING. STRONG 850 MB                     
MOISTURE CONVERGENCE WILL OCCUR AHEAD OF THIS DRY SLOT THIS                     
MORNING. IN ADDITION...THERE IS STRONG UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE TO                
EHANCE THE VERTICAL VELOCITIES. AS A RESULT...OUR BEST CHANCE FOR               
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE THIS MORNING BEFORE 10 AM. THE BEST 0-6 KM                
SHEAR WILL BE LOCATED ACROSS WISCONSIN THIS MORNING. EVEN WITH                  
THIS BEING SAID...THE LACK OF SURFACE BASED OR EVEN ELEVATED CAPES              
WILL LIMIT SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL. WITH THE LACK OF DEEP                      
MOISTURE THIS AFTERNOON...THE PRECIPITATION THREAT WILL GREATLY                 
DECREASE. HOWEVER...THERE WILL IS STILL 5 MICROBARS OF LIFT BELOW               
600 MB AND THIS WILL LIKELY RESULT IN EITHER DRIZZLE OR PATCHY RAIN.            
THE ETA TWO METER TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS THIS MORNING ARE                  
STILL BEING INFLUENCED BY THE SNOW COVER THAT IT STILL THINKS IS                
LOCATED ON THE GROUND. DURING THE AFTERNOON...IT APPEARS THAT THIS              
SNOW COVER IS FINALLY MELTED OFF...BECAUSE IT IS MUCH CLOSER TO                 
THE GFS AND RUC. SINCE THE RUC AND GFS 2 METER TEMPERATURES AND                 
DEW POINTS ARE INITIALIZING WELL . AS A RESULT...I USED THESE IN                
OBTAINING MY HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY.                                           
WITH THE MODELS CONTINUING TO SLOW THE NORTHEAST PROGRESSION OF                 
THIS STORM SYSTEM. AS A RESULT...THE COLD AIR ALOFT WILL BE MOVING              
IN MUCH SLOWER FROM THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST. LOOKING AT THE COBB                
OUTPUT FROM BOTH THE GFS AND NAM SUPPORT THIS SLOWER TRANSITION                 
FROM RAIN TO SNOW. THROUGH 9 AM...MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL                
CONTINUE TO SEE RAIN. FROM 9 PM THROUGH 3 AM...THE PRECIPITATION                
WILL GRADUALLY CHANGE FROM RAIN TO SNOW WITH THE SOUTHERN LOCATIONS             
AND HIGH ELEVATIONS SEEING THIS TRANSITION FIRST. THIS TIMING HAS               
BEEN APPLIED TO THE HOURLY WEATHER GRIDS. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL               
BE LESS THAN AN INCH. HOWEVER...IF THIS TREND OCCURS FASTER THAN                
ANTICIPATED SOME PLACES MAY SEE ONE TO TWO INCHES.                              
THE LIGHT SNOW WILL CONTINUE ON TUESDAY. IN ADDITION...STRONG COLD              
AIR ADVECTION WILL RESULT IN STEADY OR SLOWLY FALLING                           
TEMPERATURES. IN MOST CASES...THE HIGH TEMPERATURES DURING THE DAY              
TIME PERIOD WILL LIKELY OCCUR IN THE MORNING. AS A RESULT...THE                 
DIURNAL TEMPERATURE TOOL WAS NOT USED.                                          
THE MODELS CONTINUE TO SLOW THE STORM SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE                 
CENTRAL PLAINS ON WEDNESDAY...AND THROUGH THE MIDDLE AND UPPER                  
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT. AS A RESULT...I TOOK OUT                 
THE MENTION OF SNOW ON WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE BEST CHANCE OF SNOW               
STILL LOOKS TO BE ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT. AS A RESULT...THE LIKELY                  
PRECIPITATION CHANCES STILL LOOK GOOD. THE BEST CHANCE APPEARS TO               
BE ACROSS IOWA AND NORTHERN ILLINOIS...SO I TWEAKED THE CHANCES A BIT.          
.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY                                            
THE MODELS ARE SHOWING THAT THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM...WHICH                     
AFFECTS THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WILL BE WELL EAST OF THE                  
AREA BY THURSDAY. IF THIS TREND CONTINUES WE MAY HAVE TO                        
EVENTUALLY REMOVE THESE PRECIPITATION CHANCES.                                  
ON SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO               
AFFECT THE AREA. WE CURRENTLY HAVE SNOW ALREADY MENTIONED FOR                   
SUNDAY. IF THESE TRENDS CONTINUE...WE MAY HAVE TO INTRODUCE A                   
CHANCE OF SNOW ON SATURDAY NIGHT.                                               
&&                                                                              
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
WI...NONE.                                                                      
MN...NONE.                                                                      
IA...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
BOYNE                                                                           
</PRE></TT></td>   wi                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA                                       
640 AM EST MON NOV 28 2005                                                      
.AVIATION...                                                                    
AT 11Z...DEEP SFC LOW PRES WAS LOCATED NEAR SWRN IOWA.  A COLD FRONT            
WAS ATTACHED TO THIS LOW...AND IT STRETCHED FROM CNTRL                          
MISSOURI...SOUTHWARD INTO CNTRL ARKANSAS...CNTRL LOUISIANA...THEN               
INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO.  THIS FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE TAF SITES            
THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.                                               
LATEST RUC40 AND 06Z NAM BRING THE COLD FRONT THROUGH KSBN AROUND               
21Z AND KFWA AROUND 01Z.  STRONG LOW LVL CONVERGENCE ALONG AND AHEAD            
OF THE FRONT...COMBINED WITH DYNAMICAL LIFT...WILL RESULT IN                    
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.  MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS             
CAN BE EXPECTED DURING THE HEIGHT OF THE PCPN...WHICH SHOULD LAST               
ABOUT 4 TO 6 HOURS AT EACH TAF SITE.  WITH A STRONG PRESSURE                    
GRADIENT AND STRONG WINDS ALOFT...WINDY CONDITIONS CAN ALSO BE                  
EXPECTED WITH GUSTS BETWEEN 30 AND 35 KNOTS.                                    
ONCE THE COLD FRONT PASSES BY...A DRY SLOT WILL MOVE INTO THE                   
REGION.  HAVE ACCOUNTED FOR THIS FEATURE ATTM BY MENTIONING VFR                 
CONDITIONS AND BKN STRATOCUMULUS...BUT IT MAY END UP BEING MOSTLY               
CLEAR FOR A PERIOD OF TIME BEFORE CAA AND LOW LVL CLOUDS MOVE BACK              
INTO THE REGION BETWEEN 06Z AND 12Z.                                            
&&                                                                              
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...                                                         
SHORT TERM...                                                                   
TODAY AND TONIGHT.                                                              
DEEP SFC LOW PRESSURE WAS LOCATED OVER NORTHEAST KANSAS/SOUTHEAST               
NEBRASKA AT 08Z. AN ATTENDANT COLD FRONT FROM THIS LOW EXTENDED                 
SOUTHEAST INTO WRN MISSOURI...WRN ARKANSAS...WRN LOUISIANA...THEN               
INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. THE FRONT WILL BE THE MAIN WEATHER PLAYER              
FOR THE SHORT TERM FORECAST.                                                    
LATEST RUC40 AND 06Z NAM INDICATE A STRONG 850 MB LLJ ACROSS                    
ILLINOIS...IN WHICH THE NOSE OF THE JET WAS PRODUCING SPEED                     
CONVERGENCE OVER NRN ILLINOIS ATTM. MOSAIC RADAR DEPICTED                       
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS OVER ILLINOIS. THE                
BULK OF THIS PCPN WILL MOVE NORTH INTO WISCONSIN THIS                           
MORNING...CLIPPING THE WRN PERIPHERY OF THE FCST AREAS. ELSEWHERE               
FOR THIS MORNING...BROAD...MOIST ASCENT WILL JUST RESULT IN A                   
CHANCE OF SHOWERS.                                                              
FOR THIS AFTERNOON...AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SLOWLY                 
NORTHEAST TO NEAR THE ILLINOIS/INDIANA BORDER BY 18Z/1 PM EST. SFC              
TO 850 MB CONVERGENCE AHEAD OF THE FRONT...COUPLED WITH UPR LVL                 
DYNAMICAL LIFT WILL RESULT IN A BAND OF SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED                    
THUNDERSTORMS. WITH VERY STRONG WINDS ALOFT...AROUND 60 MPH AT 1500             
FEET ABOVE THE SFC...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF               
PRODUCING LOCAL WIND GUSTS AROUND 40 MPH...AND PERHAPS NEAR 60 MPH              
IN THE STRONGER STORMS. SWODY1 HIGHLIGHTS THIS POTENTIAL...AND WILL             
ALSO HIGHLIGHT THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED SEVERE IN THE HAZARDOUS               
WEATHER OUTLOOK. OTHERWISE...BAND OF SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED                       
THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE SLOWLY WEST TO EAST ACRS THE CWFA THIS                  
AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. MOST OF THE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM                
ACTIVITY SHOULD BE EAST OF THE CWFA AROUND MIDNIGHT OR SO.                      
ON ANOTHER NOTE...STRONG SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT TODAY WILL PRODUCE               
SOUTH WINDS BETWEEN 20 MPH AND 30 MPH. WILL NOT ISSUE A WIND                    
ADVISORY ATTM...BUT DAYSHIFT WILL HAVE TO MONITOR SFC                           
OBSERVATIONS/LATER FORECAST GUIDANCE SHOULD AN ADVISORY                         
BE WARRANTED.                                                                   
FINALLY...TEMPERATURES WILL BE A LITTLE TRICKY TODAY GIVEN STRONG               
LOW LVL THERMAL ADVECTION AND THE TIMING OF THE PRECIPITATION.                  
HAVE JUST TWEAKED CURRENT FCST TEMPS HERE AND THERE. HIGHS UPPER 50S            
NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN...TO THE MID 60S FAR SOUTHEAST STILL LOOK GOOD.              
FOR TONIGHT...CURRENT FORECAST LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S WEST TO THE                
LOWER 40S EAST ARE ON TRACK.                                                    
LONG TERM...                                                                    
ON TUESDAY THE FRONT WILL BE OFF TO THE EAST AND THE CENTER OF THE              
LOW WILL BE AROUND LAKE SUPERIOR. NOT EXPECTING TOO MUCH PRECIP TO              
FALL ON TUESDAY. LOTS OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL STILL BE AROUND                
THEN...MAINLY FROM 850MB DOWN TO THE SFC. JUST A QUESTION ON HOW                
MUCH LIFT CAN BE GENERATED YET ON TUESDAY. ALSO ITS MARGINAL WHETHER            
THERE WILL BE ANY/MUCH ICE NUCLEATION. JUST DROPPED THE SHOWERS                 
ADJECTIVE FROM TUESDAY AND KEPT THE 25 PERCENT POP. STILL WRAP                  
AROUND MOISTURE TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW CONTINUES TO PULL AWAY FROM            
THE REGION. THEN WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT OUR CWA WILL BE IN              
BETWEEN SYSTEMS. ON THURSDAY THE MODELS ARE STILL MOVING AN UPPER               
LEVEL TROUGH THROUGH THE AREA. TEMPERATURE PROFILES AND THICKNESSES             
ARE COLD ENOUGH FOR THE PRECIP ON THURSDAY TO BE SNOW. WILL HAVE TO             
WAIT FOR THURSDAY TO GET CLOSER BUT AT THIS EARLY POINT THE GFS IS              
PUTTING OUT UP TO 3 INCHES OF SNOW...BUT OF COURSE THE GFS IS                   
USUALLY GENEROUS WITH ITS QPF. FRIDAY THEN THERE COULD BE SOME LAKE             
EFFECT SNOW WITH THE WIND OUT OF THE NORTHWEST AS A SURFACE HIGH                
PRESSURE RIDGE MOVES IN. SATURDAY AND SUNDAY THAT HIGH PRESSURE                 
RIDGE WILL BE IN PLACE. WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED BUT THE GFS IS                  
TRYING TO BRING IN SOME QPF LATE SUNDAY. BUT WITH MOST DAYS THROUGH             
OUT THE YEAR DRY...STAYED WITH CONSISTENCY FOR SUNDAY AND LEFT DRY.             
DID NOT SEE ANY MAJOR CHANGES FOR THE TUESDAY TO NEXT SUNDAY PERIOD             
TO WARRANT ANY MAJOR CHANGES TO THE TEMPERATURES.                               
&&                                                                              
.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
IN...NONE.                                                                      
MI...NONE.                                                                      
OH...NONE.                                                                      
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR LMZ043-LMZ046.           
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHORT TERM...30                                                                 
LONG TERM....98                                                                 
AVIATION...30                                                                   
</PRE></TT></td>   in                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
945 AM EST MON NOV 28 2005                                                      
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
.SHORT TERM...                                                                  
12Z RAOBS/WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW OCCLUDED 984MB SFC LO                
NEARLY VERTICALLY STACKED TO H5 AND NEGATIVEL TILTED OVER IOWA. STRG            
SLY WINDS WITH H85 SPEEDS AOA 30KTS AT APX/GRB HAVE ADVECTED ABOVE              
NORMAL TEMPS (H85 TEMPS 8C AT GRB/APX) AND VERY MOIST AIR INTO THE              
UPR GRT LKS...PWAT HAS REACHED 0.85 INCH AT GRB AND 0.80 INCH AT                
MPX. THE ARRIVAL OF THIS WARM AND MOIST AIR OVER THE SN PACK HAS                
RESULTED IN AREAS OF DENSE FOG...ESPECIALLY IN THOSE AREAS THAT                 
UPSLOPE WITH OBSVD SFC ESE WIND. SFC TEMPS RANGE FM THE UPR 30S TO              
50. BUT LEADING EDGE OF SHRA ASSOCIATED WITH WARM CONVEYOR BELT                 
MSTR/INCRSG H85-5 QVECTOR CNVGC AS SHOWN ON THE LATEST RUC HAS                  
REACHED THE WI BORDER. A FEW LTNG STRIKES NOTED OVER LK MI WITHIN               
THE MORE WDSRPD ECHOES UNDER THE WARM CONVEYOR BELT. VSBYS IN WI                
HAVE IMPROVED MARKEDLY SINCE THE RA BEGAN...AND VSBY AT IMT IMPROVED            
FM 1/4SM AT 13Z TO 1 1/4 SM AT 14Z AFTER THE RA BEGAN. DRY SLOT                 
OBSVD OVER WRN WI HAS CUT THE COVERAGE OF PCPN ECHO IN THAT AREA.               
MAIN FCST CONCERNS TDAY ARE PCPN TIMING/IMPACT ON FOG/GOING DENSE               
FOG ADVY.                                                                       
LATEST RUC SHOWS H85-5 QVECTOR CNVGC/SHARPER OMEGA ON RUC 300K                  
ISENTROPIC SFC/DEEPER WARM CONVEYOR BELT MOISTURE OVERSPREADING THE             
FA THIS MRNG IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH RADAR TRENDS AS OCCLUSION OVER              
IA DRIFTS SLOWLY TO THE NE. EXPECT VSBY TO IMPROVE ONCE THE RA                  
ARRIVES AS OBSVD TO THE S...SO WL LET ADVY EXPIRE AT NOON AS                    
SCHEDULED OR CANCEL A BIT EARLIER DEPENDING ON TREND IN                         
OBSERVATIONS. DENSE FOG ADVY FOR THE KEWEENAW GOES INTO THIS EVNG               
WITH EXPECTATION THAT LLVL ESE WIND WOULD MAINTAIN LO VSBY...WL                 
WATCH OBS TO DETERMINE WHEN AND IF TO CANX THE ADVY EARLIER.                    
ALTHOUGH THE RA IS DUE TO ARRIVE LATEST AT ERY...EXPECT THE RA WL BE            
STEADIEST THIS AFTN E OF MQT-IMT WHERE S-TO-N ORIENTED WARM CONVEYOR            
BELT MSTR WL LINGER THE LONGEST TO THE E OF DRY SLOTTING THAT WL                
GRDLY IMPACT THE W HALF OF THE CWA.                                             
KC                                                                              
.LONG TERM...                                                                   
TONIGHT...DIFFERENCES AGAIN SHOW UP IN THE MODELS WITH THE TIMING               
AND TRACK OF THE UPPER AND SURFACE LOWS. PREFER AGAIN THE SLOWER                
UKMET WHICH HAS BEEN PERFORMING WELL WITH THIS SYSTEM SO FAR. UPPER             
LOW IS PROGGED TO MOVE TO EAU CLAIRE BY 12Z WITH THE ATTENDANT                  
SURFACE LOW NEAR DEVILS ISLAND. DRY SLOT ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHRTWV             
ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE UPPER LOW WILL EFFECTIVELY CUT OFF ALL THE              
SHOWERS. HOWEVER...WITH LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...AREAS OF                 
DRIZZLE WILL LIKELY DEVELOP. COLD AIR ADVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE             
UPPER LOW IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR ACROSS THE CWA THROUGH THE                       
NIGHT...HOWEVER NO SNOW IS EXPECTED AS THE -8C LAYER NEVER                      
SATURATES. WILL NOT MENTION ANY FREEZING DRIZZLE EITHER AS SURFACE              
TEMPS SHOULD STAY ABOVE FREEZING DUE TO LOW CLOUDS. AREAS OF FOG                
SHOULD PERSIST TOO DUE TO THE SNOWPACK...BUT DO NOT THINK IT WILL BE            
AS THICK WITH THE COLD AIR ADVECTION ON SOUTHWEST WINDS.                        
TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...UPPER AND SURFACE LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO             
SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR DURING THE DAY...ALLOWING COLD AIR             
ADVECTION TO CONTINUE. THIS COLD AIR ADVECTION PROCESS SHOULD SWITCH            
ANY PRECIPITATION OVER TO SNOW DURING THE MORNING HOURS. SOME OF THE            
COLD CONVEYOR BELT MOISTURE WILL LIKELY MOVE INTO THE WESTERN U.P.              
BY LATE MORNING...THEN HEAD INTO THE CENTRAL U.P. DURING THE                    
AFTERNOON. IN FACT...WITH 850MB TEMPS COOLING TO -10C OVER WESTERN              
LAKE SUPERIOR BY EVENING...LAKE ENHANCEMENT IS LIKELY TOO OVER THE              
WESTERN U.P.. HOWEVER...SINCE THE COLD AIR ADVECTION IS NOT                     
EXTREMELY DEEP AND THE SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT IS MOVING OUT...DO NOT               
EXPECT A LOT OF ACCUMULATION. HAVE PUT 2-3 INCHES IN GRIDS AT THE               
MOMENT. THIS COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL ALSO RESULT IN FALLING                     
TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE DAY...THEREFORE THE HIGH TEMPERATURES               
WILL OCCUR AT SUNRISE. NOTE THAT ANY WATER PRODUCED BY SNOWMELT OR              
RAINFALL WILL FREEZE TUESDAY AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY OVER THE WEST               
HALF OF THE U.P..                                                               
AS THE SYNOPTIC MOISTURE LIFTS OUT TUESDAY NIGHT AND 850MB TEMPS                
COOL A FEW MORE DEGREES...EXPECT PURE LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS OFF              
OF SUPERIOR TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT. SINCE WINDS ARE                      
WEST-NORTHWEST...MAIN AREAS TO RECEIVE THE SNOW WILL BE OVER THE                
WESTERN U.P. AND FROM THE PICTURE ROCKS EASTWARD. HAVE MAINTAINED               
THE LIKELY POPS FOR THESE AREAS. FOR THE INTERIOR...A FEW FLURRIES              
WILL BE THE RULE AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE STAYS BEHIND THE DEPARTING               
UPPER LOW. READINGS WILL BE MUCH COOLER TUESDAY NIGHT THAN TONIGHT              
DUE TO THE COLD AIR ADVECTION. CURRENT GOING LOWS LOOK FINE.                    
WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT...NEXT SHRTWV TROUGH MOVING INTO THE             
PACIFIC NW AT THE MOMENT IS PROGGED TO REACH MINNESOTA ON WEDNESDAY.            
ISENTROPIC LIFT AHEAD OF THIS TROUGH WILL LIKELY PRODUCE AN AREA OF             
SYNOPTIC LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. MUCH OF THIS SNOW               
WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL WEDNESDAY NIGHT SINCE WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGING              
IS PROGGED OVER THE CWA. HOWEVER...EXPECT LAKE EFFECT SNOWS TO                  
CONTINUE AS 850MB TEMPS REMAIN AROUND -14C AND LOW LEVEL FLOW                   
REMAINS OUT OF THE WEST-NORTHWEST.                                              
REST OF THE FORECAST LOOKS GOOD. SHRTWV TROUGH CROSSING THE AREA                
WEDNESDAY NIGHT IS SHOWN BY ALL EXTENDED MODELS TO PULL DOWN ANOTHER            
POLAR VORTEX (RIGHT NOW OVER HUDSON BAY) INTO SOUTHERN MANITOBA ON              
THURSDAY. THIS VORTEX IS THEN EXPECTED TO CROSS LAKE SUPERIOR                   
THURSDAY NIGHT...BRINGING DEEP MOISTURE AND COLDER 850MB TEMPS.                 
THEREFORE...THE IDEA OF A SIGNIFICANT LES EVENT FOR NW SNOWBELTS                
STILL LOOKS ON TRACK. IN FACT...SINCE THERE HAS BEEN QUITE A BIT OF             
CONSISTENCY REGARDING THIS SYSTEM...HAVE RAISED POPS EVEN FURTHER               
FOR THE LES THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT.                                       
AJ                                                                              
&&                                                                              
.MQT...WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                           
  DENSE FOG ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON EST FOR                       
    MIZ002-004>007-009>014-084-085                                              
  DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST FOR MIZ001-003.                            
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</PRE></TT></td>   mi                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS                                             
900 AM CST MON NOV 28 2005                                                      
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
MESOSCALE UPDATE...INITIAL LINE HAS PRETTY WELL DIED OUT WITH                   
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ALONG A STARKVILLE...TO NEWTON...TO COLUMBIA LINE.             
SOME DECENT HEATING OCCURRING AHEAD OF THIS BOUNDARY HELPING TO MAKE            
LOWER LEVELS MORE UNSTABLE. HOWEVER...RUC IMPLIES THAT WARMER                   
TEMPERATURES IN MID LEVELS AND LACK OF REALLY DEEP BOUNDARY LAYER               
MOISTURE MAY KEEP INSTABILITY TO A MINIMUM ACROSS EASTERN MS...EVEN             
WITH DAYTIME HEATING. STILL...EXPECT THAT SHRA AND TSRA WILL                    
CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY DEVELOP ALONG BOUNDARY AS IT SLOWLY TRAVERSES             
TO THE EAST THIS MORNING...WITH A POSSIBLE ENHANCEMENT AS ANOTHER               
JETMAX SWINGS AROUND THE BASE OF THE TROUGH. STILL PLENTY ENOUGH                
SHEAR FOR SEVERE STORMS...INCLUDING SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL SHEAR FOR              
TORNADIC STORMS...SHOULD INSTABILITY GET GREAT ENOUGH. RIGHT NOW...             
EXPECT THAT THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE IN FAR EASTERN MS...ALONG A                 
KCBM...TO KMEI...KHBG LINE...WITH RISK INCREASING TOWARD AL AS PER              
SPC OUTLOOK.                                                                    
&&                                                                              
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...509 AM CST MON NOV 28 2005                               
.SYNOPSIS...CURRENT LATEST SATELLITE IMAGES SHOWED A STRONG UPPER               
LOW OF 528 DKM OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS WITH SOME STRONG UPPER JETS              
ROTATING THROUGH THE BASE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE LOWER               
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. A NUMBER OF WATCH BOXES WERE IN PLACE...WHILE A             
STRONG SQUALL-LINE OF STORMS MARCHES EAST ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI                
RIVER THROUGH THE COUNTY WARNING AREA. ON THE SURFACE A STRONG                  
SURFACE LOW WAS NOTED ACROSS EASTERN KANSAS AND HEADING SLOWLY                  
NORTHEAST. AIRMASS ACROSS THE REGION AHEAD OF THE LINE HAD LOW TO MID           
60S DEWPOINTS. THE COLD FRONT BEHIND THE LINE WAS PUSHING EAST ACROSS           
THE ARK-LA-TEX WITH 20S/30S DEWPOINTS BEHIND IT. BREEZY SOUTHERLY               
WINDS WERE USHERING IN DECENT GULF MOISTURE.                                    
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
SHORT TERM...TODAY AND TONIGHT. EXPECT SQUALL-LINE TO PUSH THROUGH              
THE WESTERN HALF OF THE COUNTY WARNING AREA THIS MORNING. THERE IS              
PLENTY OF HELICITY(0-1/0-3KM HELICITIES OF                                      
500-600M*M/S*S...SIGNIFICANT SEVERE PARAMETER OF 25-30K...AND STRONG            
TORNADO PARAMETER 2.5-3.0M/S*S...LAPSE RATE OF 5 TO NEAR 7 C. THIS              
WILL CONTINUE TO FAVOR SOME ROTATING SUPERCELLS ALONG AND AHEAD OF              
THE LINE OF STORMS. MODELS SEEM TO HAVE A HANDLE OF THE NOST OF THE             
500 MB JET OF AROUND 110 KNOTS MOVING THROUGH TEXAS. THIS JET WILL              
FAVOR A GOOD ENTRANCE REGION FOR THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON FOR                 
AREAS EAST OF I-55. PRIME DIVERGENCE AS NOTED BY THE PREVIOUS                   
DAYSHIFT WILL CONTINUE TO FAVOR SEVERE WEATHER ACROSS THE REST OF               
THE REGION FOR TODAY WITH THE ONGOING SQUALL LINE.                              
STILL EXPECT THE LINE TO PICK UP STEAM TODAY AS THE JET MAX COMES               
ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING AND DURING DAYTIME HEATING. THIS WILL            
BE MAINLY ALONG THE NATCHEZ TRACE PARKWAY DURING THE MORNING HOURS              
WITH INCREASING INSTABILITY BECOMING AVAILABLE FOR EASTERN                      
MISSISSIPPI BY MIDDAY. THE SEVERE RISK COULD REACH A SECONDARY PEAK             
FOR THE KCBM-COLUMBIA LINE ON EASTWARD BY 15 TO 20Z AS ENOUGH                   
FACTORS REMAIN TOGETHER FOR ADDITIONAL SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT. THE               
BACK OF THE LINE OF STORMS SHOULD START ACCELERATING EAST AS THE                
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION...LEAVING THE START OF A DRYING             
AND GRADUALLY COOLING TREND FOR THE FORECAST AREA. WITH THE GOOD                
SOUTHERLY GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION WILL KEEP LAKE WIND ADVISORY               
ACROSS THE WEST UNTIL 6 AM AND ACROSS THE EAST UNTIL 3 PM.                      
FOR TONIGHT EXPECT THE LAST OF THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO EXIT            
THE EAST DURING THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL             
DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION AS TEMPS FALL INTO THE 40S OVERNIGHT.                 
AS FAR AS TEMPS WENT CLOSE TO MAV AND GFS FOR POPS./17/                         
.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH MONDAY...                                          
MADE A FEW ADJUSTMENTS TO THE EXTENDED. TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY                   
CONTINUE TO LOOK DRY. MODELS SHOW HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING OVER THE               
REGION...BRINGING COOLER AND DRIER AIR. TEMPERATURES WILL BE CLOSER             
TO NORMAL FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE HIGH WILL MAINTAIN DRY                     
CONDITIONS THROUGH TUESDAY...WHEN THE GFS BRINGS THE NEXT FRONT INTO            
THE AREA. AN UPPER WAVE/SURFACE LOW MOVE OUT OF THE ROCKIES AND TRACK           
ACROSS THE MIDWEST. A COLD FRONT DEVELOPS AROUND THURSDAY AND SINKS             
SOUTH INTO THE AREA. THE GFS SHOWS THE UPPER WAVE AND SURFACE FEATURE           
CONTINUING TO MOVE NORTHEAST...WITH ZONAL FLOW SETTING UP ALOFT. THE            
BOUNDARY CONTINUES TOWARD THE COAST AND ANOTHER HIGH BRIEFLY SETTLES            
OVER THE AREA. TRIED TO SHOW THE COOLER DRIER AIR. HOWEVER BY FRIDAY            
NIGHT/SATURDAY THE NEXT SURFACE LOW WAS HEADED TOWARD TEXAS AND THE             
BOUNDARY MOVED NORTH AS A WARM FRONT. SOUTHERLY WINDS SHOULD BE                 
ENOUGH TO BRING IN GULF MOISTURE AND SLOWLY RAISE DEWPOINTS. WINDS AT           
850 WERE AROUND 25- 30KTS...BUT THERE WAS VERY LITTLE UPPER LEVEL               
SUPPORT. HOWEVER WITH A WARM FRONT MOVING NORTH THROUGH THE                     
AREA...DECIDED TO GO WITH THUNDER FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY....BY                 
SATURDAY THERE SHOULD STILL BE SOME RAIN LINGERING. MEANWHILE AN                
UPPER TROUGH DEEPENS AS IT MOVES INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST.                        
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL ALSO HELP TO MOISTEN AND WARM THE                 
AREA. RAISED TEMPS AND DEWPOINTS TO REFLECT THIS AROUND SUNDAY AND              
MONDAY. EXPECTING A COLD FRONT BY THE END OF THE PERIOD WITH THE                
UPPER LEVEL JET NOSING IN RIGHT BEHIND IT. GENERALLY WENT WITH                  
GUIDANCE FOR POPS/TEMPS. ASIDE FROM ADDING RAIN TO THU/FRI...NO REAL            
CHANGES TO THE FORECAST. &&                                                     
.AVIATION...SQUALL-LINE CROSSING MOVING OVER THE WESTERN SECTIONS OF            
MISSISSIPPI...WHICH WILL PROVIDE CIG...WIND...AND VISIBILITY HAZARDS            
TO ALL AVIATION INTERESTS. OTHERWISE MVFR CIGS NOTED ACROSS THE                 
REGION AHEAD OF THE LINE AS FAST MOVING STRATUS MOVES NORTH WITH THE            
LOW LEVEL JET. WINDS HAVE RESPONDED TO THE DEEP LOW OVER KANSAS WITH            
WINDS TO 20 TO 25 KNOTS IN GUSTS. THE LINE OF STORMS WILL CROSS THE             
I-55 CORRIDOR BY AROUND SUNRISE AND MOVE OVER EAST MISSISSIPPI LATE             
THIS MORNING AND THIS AFTERNOON. WILL CONTINUE TO PUT GUSTY WINDS               
WITH BRIEF HEAVY RAINS IN THE KJAN...KMEI...KHBG TAFS. WILL GO WITH             
VFR CONDITIONS WITH SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS FOR TONIGHT. /17/                     
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
JACKSON       65  41  59  33 /  91  11   1   1                                  
MERIDIAN      71  42  59  31 /  86  28   1   1                                  
VICKSBURG     65  41  59  34 /  48   9   1   1                                  
HATTIESBURG   76  46  63  34 /  81  24   1   1                                  
NATCHEZ       70  40  59  34 /  66   7   1   1                                  
GREENVILLE    63  40  57  33 /  40  10   1   1                                  
GREENWOOD     64  39  55  32 /  81  10   1   1                                  
&&                                                                              
.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
MS...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR MSZ029-               
     MSZ030-MSZ031-MSZ032-MSZ033-MSZ038-MSZ039-MSZ044-MSZ045-                   
     MSZ046-MSZ050-MSZ051-MSZ052-MSZ055-MSZ056-MSZ057-MSZ058-                   
     MSZ062-MSZ063-MSZ064-MSZ065-MSZ066-MSZ072-MSZ073-MSZ074.                   
LA...NONE.                                                                      
AR...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</PRE></TT></td>   ms                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE UPTON NY                                               
1047 AM EST MON NOV 28 2005                                                     
.NEAR TERM...                                                                   
UPDATED GRIDS FOR TODAY TO LOWER TEMPS ACROSS CONNECTICUT. LATEST               
TEMPS IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S...WITH THE CLOUD COVER TEMPS ARE            
ONLY EXPECTED TO CLIMB ABOUT 10 DEGREES HIGHER FOR THE DAY.                     
AREAS OF DENSE FOG ACROSS CONNECTICUT AND LOWER HUDSON VALLEY EARLY             
TODAY SHOULD BEGIN TO DISSIPATE AFTER 18Z. ISSUED A DENSE FOG ADV TO            
18Z FOR THESE AREAS.                                                            
.SHORT TERM (THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT)...                                     
STAGNANT PATTERN PERSISTS ACRS THE NERN US...WITH STRONG HIPRES                 
REMAINING CENTERED OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES...WITH BUILDING                  
HEIGHTS ALOFT ON THE ORDER OF +1 TO +2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS FROM THE             
MEAN. WHAT THIS MEANS IS THAT THE RATHER STABLE AND COOL CONDITIONS             
WILL PERSIST AT THE SURFACE.                                                    
ONCE AGAIN TODAY...FEEL THE NAM HAS A BETTER FEEL FOR SFC                       
CONDITIONS...WITH HIGHER MSLP'S NOSING IN FROM THE NORTHEAST. AS A              
RESULT...THE METMOS GUIDANCE PERFORMED MUCH BETTER THAN THE MAV FOR             
MAXES YESTERDAY. EXPECT THE SAME TODAY AS DENSE AIR CONTINUES TO BE             
LOCKED IN ACRS NRN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. MAXES WILL LIKELY REMAIN IN             
THE 40S TODAY ACRS THE NRN ZONES.                                               
SELY FETCH OF RELATIVELY MARINE AIR WILL CONTINUE TO TRANSPORT                  
MOISTURE NORTHWARD...WHICH WILL COOL AND CONDENSE INTO CLOUDINESS               
FOR TODAY. THINKING LITTLE OR NO SUNSHINE.                                      
AS FAR AS POPS GO...WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHANCES GOING FOR SHOWERS THIS             
MORNING BEFORE MID AND UPPER LEVEL WAVE COMPLETELY DEPARTS TO THE               
NORTHEAST AND THE RIDGE ALOFT BUILDS. OTHERWISE...THIS AFTERNOON MAY            
VERY WELL BE DRY ACRS MOST AREAS...EXPECT PERHAPS A PASSING SHOWER              
OR TWO OVER NWRNMOST ZONES.                                                     
EXPECT THE LOW LEVELS TO SATURATE TONIGHT WITH THE SELY MARINE FLOW             
CONTINUING. STRATUS WILL BUILD DOWN...AND WE WILL EVENTUALLY GET THE            
CHANCE FOR FOG AND DRIZZLE...ESPECIALLY AT THE COAST. MIN TEMPS WILL            
BE RELATIVELY MILD DUE TO THE EXTENSIVE CLOUDINESS AND ONSHORE FLOW.            
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM (TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...                                      
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE LAKES SLOWLY MOVES EWD ON TUESDAY.                 
DON'T EXPECT THIS SYSTEM TO FLY ALONG WITH 576-580DM HEIGHTS                    
OVERHEAD OR JUST OFFSHORE. THUS...HAVE SLOWED DOWN THE ONSET OF                 
LIKELY POPS TUE...ESPECIALLY ACRS THE EASTERN 2/3 OF THE CWA. IN                
FACT...ASIDE FROM SOME DRIZZLE AND FOG...THE EASTERN 1/2 OF THE CWA             
WILL PROBABLY NOT SEE ANY RAIN AT ALL TUE. CLOUDS WILL BE ABUNDANT              
ALL AREAS.                                                                      
WILL INCREASE POPS TO HIGH LIKELY/CATEGORICAL FROM W TO E TUE NIGHT             
AS FRONT MOVES INTO THE WRN PORTIONS OF THE AREA. WE'LL HAVE GOOD               
JET DYNAMICS TO WORK WITH THE ANOMALOUSLY HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT OF              
THE ATMOSPHERE TO PRODUCE SOME HEAVY RAINS TUE NIGHT INTO WED. MODEL            
QPFS ARE GENERALLY BETWEEN 1" AND 2" ACRS THE REGION DURING THIS                
TIME. GIVEN THE SLOW MOVEMENT OF THE FRONT AND THE GOOD SELY INFLOW             
INTO THE SYSTEM...I CAN'T RULE OUT LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ON THE                
ORDER OF 3"...MAINLY ACROSS WRN SECTIONS OF THE CWA WHERE THE                   
BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW WILL HAVE A SIGNIFICANT UPSLOPE COMPONENT.                  
ISOLATED THUNDER WILL BE POSSIBLE.                                              
THE LOW LEVEL JET RIGHT AHEAD OF THE SFC FRONT INCREASES TO 50+ KTS.            
RIGHT NOW I'M THINKING THAT THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL BE STABLE ENOUGH            
TO INHIBIT ANY HIGH WIND GUSTS FROM REACHING THE SURFACE TUE NIGHT              
INTO WED.                                                                       
DRYING FROM THE WEST COMMENCES WED AFTN FROM W TO E...AND AS OF THIS            
TIME...EXPECT ALL PCPN TO HAVE EXITED THE CWA BY 00Z THURS.                     
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM (THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...                                         
DRY WEATHER WILL DOMINATE ON THURSDAY ALONG WITH NEAR NORMAL                    
TEMPERATURES. THE NEXT SHOT OF BELOW NORMAL COLD LOOKS TO ARRIVE FOR            
FRI AND FRI NIGHT. IT REMAINS TO BE SEEN WHETHER THIS UPPER VORTEX              
WILL BE ABLE TO HELP GENERATE DOWNSTREAM BLOCKING...BUT MODELS SEEM             
TO SAY YES IT WILL. WE'LL SEE IF THIS HAPPENS AND SEE IF COLDER AIR             
GETS LOCKED INTO THE NORTHEAST FOR LATER IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD. IF             
IT DOES...THEN SOME INTERESTING WEATHER MAY BE UPCOMING IN A WEEK OR            
SO WITH SOME WINTRY WEATHER POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY IF WE CAN GET A               
DECENT NEWFOUNDLAND CLOSED LOW TO OCCUR.                                        
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
VERY DIFFICULT FORECAST WITH WARM FRONT LOCATED FROM NEAR SANDY HOOK            
TO GROTON/NEW LONDON AS OF 15Z. HIGH PRESSURE OVER SOUTHEAST MAINE              
IS KEEPING NORTHEAST AGEOSTROPHIC FLOW TO THE NORTH OF THE FRONT                
WHICH IS PREVENTING ITS NORTHWARD PROGRESSION.                                  
IFR WITH AREAS OF LIFR CIGS AND VIS ARE FORECAST TO PREVAIL INTO THE            
EVENING AS THE WARM FRONT HOLDS BASICALLY STATIONARY ALONG THE SOUTH            
SHORE OF LONG ISLAND. INLAND (HUDSON VALLEY S. CT) ARE VLIFR IN THE             
FOG AND LOW STRATUS AND WILL IMPROVE SLOWLY TO IFR WITH HIGHER                  
TERRAIN OBSCURED.                                                               
IF NORTHEAST FLOW WEAKENS...EXPECT HIGHER CIGS AND VIS. BUT BASED ON            
LATEST OBSERVATION NORTH OF FRONT AND LATEST RUC MODEL...EXPECTING              
NYC METRO TO REMAIN IFR INTO THE EVENING. CLIMATOLOGY STRONGLY                  
SUPPORTS THIS FORECAST...BUT A 20 MILE SHIFT IN THE FRONT WILL                  
CHANGE THINGS DRAMATICALLY.                                                     
TONIGHT...EXPECT WARM FRONT TO JUMP NORTH EARLY THIS EVENING...THEN             
AN IFR STATUS PREVAIL IN THE WARM SECTOR...BUT VISIBILITY SHOULD                
REMAIN IN THE 3-5SM RANGE.                                                      
&&                                                                              
.MARINE...                                                                      
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BEGIN TO TIGHTEN UP TODAY THROUGH MIDWEEK AS             
THE LOCAL AREA BECOMES SANDWICHED BETWEEN SLOWLY DEPARTING HIGH                 
PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM                    
DEVELOPING OVER THE MID SECTION OF THE COUNTRY. LOW PRESSURE SLOWLY             
APPROACHES THE REGION ON TUESDAY WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE WEDNESDAY                 
AFTERNOON WITH AN INCREASING SE/S GRADIENT. EXPECT SEAS ON OCEAN TO             
BUILD TO SCA CRITERIA LATER THIS MORNING AND WINDS ON OCEAN                     
INCREASING TO SCA BY EARLY TUESDAY. ALL WATERS COULD SEE MARGINAL               
SCA WIND GUSTS AHEAD OF FRONTAL PASSAGE TUES NIGHT/EARLY WEDNESDAY.             
AFTER COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THERE WILL BE A                  
PERIOD OF CAA INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH SCA GUSTS POSSIBLE ON ALL               
WATERS. AFTER SOME WEAK SURFACE RIDGING ON THURSDAY WINDS SHOULD                
COME BELOW SCA BUT OCEAN SEAS WILL REMAIN SCA. APPEARS STRONGER CAA             
WILL BE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO WEEKEND AS POLAR VORTEX SWINGS INTO NEW             
ENGLAND AND LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS OVER SOUTHERN CANADA...WITH SCA                
WINDS POSSIBLE OVER ALL WATERS ONCE AGAIN.                                      
&&                                                                              
.HYDROLOGY...                                                                   
LIGHT QPF AMOUNTS EXPECTED THROUGH TUE. A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT                
WITH WAVES OF LOW PRES DEVELOPING ALONG IT WILL BRING HEAVIER RAIN              
LATE TUE THROUGH WED MORNING...POSSIBLY BETWEEN 1 AND 2 INCHES OF               
RAIN. LOCAL AMOUNTS OF AROUND 3" WILL BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY                  
INLAND WHERE UPSLOPE MAY ENHANCE PRECIP RATES. SOME SMALLER                     
STREAMS...ESPECIALLY IN THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY AND NEW JERSEY WILL             
LIKELY SEE SIGNIFICANT RISES.                                                   
&&                                                                              
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
CT...DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR CTZ005>012 UNTIL 1 PM MONDAY.                       
NJ...NONE.                                                                      
NY...DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR NYZ068-070-071 UNTIL 1 PM MONDAY.                   
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ANZ350-353-355 FROM 7 AM TUESDAY              
TO 7      AM THURSDAY.                                                          
  ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FOR ANZ350-353-355                 
     UNTIL 7 AM TUESDAY.                                                        
$$                                                                              
</PRE></TT></td>   ny                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC                                          
1013 AM EST MON NOV 28 2005                                                     
.SHORT TERM (REST OF TODAY)...                                                  
IMPRESSIVE DIFLUENCE ALOFT JUST UPSTREAM CLEARLY EVIDENT ON WATER               
VAPOR IMAGERY THIS MORNING SPAWNING CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY ACROSS                  
PARTS OF GEORGIA AND THE FLORIDA PAN-HANDLE. THIS ACTIVITY/FORCING              
IS SLATED TO MOVE INTO THE WESTERN PARTS OF THE COUNTY WARNING                  
AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THE EASTERN PARTS OF THE AREA WILL HAVE               
LESS IMPRESSIVE FORCING MECHANISMS FOR POPS...A LITTLE SPEED                    
CONVERGENCE AT 850MB AND DIFFERENTIAL HEATING. HAVE TRIMMED POPS                
DOWN SLIGHTLY ALONG THE COAST. HAVE ALSO DECREASED CLOUD-COVER                  
ALONG THE COAST.                                                                
TEMPERATURES OFF TO A FAST START IN PLACES THAT HAVE SEEN BREAKS                
THIS MORNING. WILL BANK ON CONVECTIVE CEILINGS DEVELOPING TO                    
STABILIZE THESE VALUES.                                                         
THE ONLY OTHER UPDATE TO ZONES WILL BE TO REMOVE NPW HEADLINE IN                
AFFECTED ZONES.                                                                 
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
WARM FRONT NEAR FLO AT 11Z. FLO LIFR THIS MORNING WHILE THE COASTAL             
TERMINALS ARE VFR. LIGHT TO MODERATE SHOWERS VICINITY ILM. WARM                 
FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT WEST AND BE THROUGH FLO EARLY THIS                 
MORNING. FLO SHOULD IMPROVE TO MVFR OR BETTER BY 13-14Z. ILM COULD              
HAVE TEMPO IFR WITH SHOWERS TIL 14Z BUT SINCE PRECIPITATION ISOLATED            
EXPECT IF THIS TO BE TOO BRIEF TO INCLUDE IN TAFS. ALL TERMINALS                
WILL BE IN WARM SECTOR THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY WITH SOUTHEAST WINDS                 
10-15 KNOTS. SHOWERS DEVELOPING AGAIN BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON. HAVE              
INDICATED VICINITY IN TAFS. PREDOMINATE SHOWER ACTIVITY AND MVFR                
CEILINGS AFTER 06Z.                                                             
&&                                                                              
.MARINE...                                                                      
SOUTHEAST WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KNOTS AT THE NOAA BUOYS WITH                        
6.6 FT SEAS AT 41013. LATEST RUC AND NAM SHOW SOUTHEAST WINDS TO                
CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. WILL UPDATE COASTAL FORECAST FOR                
WIND DIRECTION.  WAVE WATCH CONTINUE TO BUILD SEAS AND SEAS HEIGHTS             
AT BUOYS INDICATE THAT THE SMALL CRAFT IS VALID.                                
&&                                                                              
.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
NC...NONE.                                                                      
SC...NONE.                                                                      
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR AMZ250-252-254-256 UNTIL 6 PM                 
     WEDNESDAY.                                                                 
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHORT TERM...SHK                                                                
AVIATION...MRR                                                                  
MARINE...DRH                                                                    
</PRE></TT></td>   nc                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC                                          
1010 AM EST MON NOV 28 2005                                                     
.SHORT TERM /TODAY/...NO DOUBT ABOUT PLENTY OF MOISTURE IN THE LOW              
AND MIDLVLS TDA AS EVIDENCED BY 12Z KCHS RAOB THIS MRNG THAT WAS                
SOCKED WITH MOISTURE THRU 600MB AND SFC DEWPTS ALREADY IN THE MID               
60S. WITH WMFNT WELL N OF THE AREA...THE CWFA WILL BE CAUGHT IN ERN             
PORTIONS OF THE WARM SECTOR AND HELP KEEP SELY TO SLY WINDS THAT                
KEEP THE ABUNDANT MOISTURE OVR THE AREA. NAM/RUC INDICATE A FEW UPR             
LVL SHTWVS TO PASS THRU THE AREA BUT BEST DYNAMICS LOOK TO REMAIN W             
OF THE CWFA THRU TDA. THUS...AM NOT TOO SURE ABOUT TSTM POTENTIAL               
TDA BUT WITH 12Z RAOB INDICATING 20-25KT OF WIND WITHIN THE LOWEST              
5K FT OF THE SFC ALONG WITH MODEL SOUNDINGS WHICH SHOW -2 TO -3 LI/S            
WITH INCLUDE CHC TSTM MENTION. WITH ISENTROPIC LIFT STILL ONGOING               
ALONG WITH SEVERAL PVM APCHG...SHWR ACTIVITY LOOKS TO BE ON THE                 
INCRS ESP WITH CLOUD COVER BEGINNING TO THIN OUT WHICH WILL HELP IN             
DESTABILIZATION. WILL INCRS POPS TO 60 FOR THE ENTIRE CWFA TDA.                 
TEMPS ARE ALREADY ABV THE CURVE TWD MAX TEMPS IN THE MID 70S SO HAVE            
NUDGED MAXES UP 1-3 DEGREES SUCH THAT ALL ZONES...XCPT POSSIBLY                 
IMMEDIATE COASTAL AREAS...REFLECT MID 70S. HAVE ALSO INCRD DEWPTS TO            
BETTER MATCH CURRENT OBS.                                                       
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...TAFS A TRICKY PROPOSITION TDA WITH WEDGE/COASTAL TROF               
ERODING BUT INCRG CHCS OF PRECIP APCHG THIS AFTN. BKN/OVC SKIES WILL            
HOLD BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH AS TO WHEN CONDS MAY DETERIORATE                
INTO MVFR OR EVEN IFR CONDS. WILL TRY NOT TO MAKE WHOLESALE CHANGES             
FROM THE 28/12Z TAFS TO THE 28/18Z TAFS BUT WILL MAINTAIN THE IDEA              
OF MVFR CONDS THIS AFTN DECRG TO IFR CONDS TNGT WITH THE OCNL SHWRS.            
&&                                                                              
.MARINE...FEW CHANGES NEEDED TO ONGOING THINKING. SELY WINDS WILL               
INCRS IN SPEED THRU THE AFTN HRS AS APCHG FNTL BNDRY INCRS PRES GRAD            
OVR THE WATERS...WHICH WILL HELP INCRS SEAS WITH THE FAVORABLE                  
FETCH. WILL MINOR MINOR INITIALIZATION TWEAKS BUT OVERALL THINKING              
IS GOOD.                                                                        
&&                                                                              
.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
GA...NONE.                                                                      
SC...NONE.                                                                      
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY AMZ350-352-354-374.                               
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
JPC                                                                             
</PRE></TT></td>   sc                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL                                             
1200 PM CST MON NOV 28 2005                                                     
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
UPDATED THE FORECAST TODAY TO REMOVE MORNING WORDING AND TO ADDRESS             
COOLING TEMPERATURE TRENDS THIS AFTERNOON. WINDY WITH SOUTH WINDS               
20 TO 30 MPH AND GUSTS OF 35 TO 40 MPH...BECOMING SSW. CURRENT TEMPS            
IN THE 50S ARE NEAR HIGHS TODAY AND WILL COOL INTO THE 40S THIS                 
AFTERNOON. CLOUDY SKIES FROM I-55 WEST AND BECOMING MOSTLY CLOUDY               
OVER EASTERN IL.                                                                
NOON SURFACE MAP HAS 984 MB LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE MN/IOWA BORDER               
WITH A COLD FRONT ARCHING ACROSS SW WI TO ALONG THE IL/IN BORDER AND            
SOUTH ALONG THE AL/MS BORDER. CONVECTION WITH A FEW THUNDERSTORMS               
AND HEAVY RAIN PASSED JUST EAST OF IL INTO INDIANA AROUND 10 AM.                
ISOLATED NARROW BAND OF SHOWERS NORTH OF PEORIA AND PIVOTING NORTH              
WITH A LARGER AREA OF SHOWERS OVER CETNRAL IOWA AND LIGHT SNOW                  
SHOWERS OVER WESTERN IOWA NEAR THE STRONG CUTOFF UPPER LEVEL LOW                
WITH 528 DM 500 MB LOW JUST WEST OF DES MOINES. LOW OVERCAST CLOUDS             
HEADING SLOWLY EAST TOWARD I-55 WHILE MORE OVERCAST LOW/MID CLOUDS              
ALONG THE INDIANA BORDER AND SOME SUNSHINE IN BETWEEN ACROSS EASTERN            
AND ESPECIALLY SE IL WHERE MOSTLY SUNNY. STRONG SOUTH WINDS 20 TO 30            
MPH WITH GUSTS AROUND 35 MPH. TEMPS RANGE FROM 48F AT GALESBURG                 
(WHICH HAS COOLED FROM 55F EARLY THIS MORNING) TO 61F IN OLNEY.                 
RUC AND NAM SHOW STRONG CUTOFF UPPER LEVEL LOW BECOMING VERTICALLY              
STACKED AND CATCHES UP WITH THE SURFACE LOW AS IT LIFTS NE INTO SE              
MN THIS EVENING. MOST OF THE LIGHT PRECIPITATION OVER IOWA STAYS NW             
OF CENTRAL IL AND JUST KEPT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT SHOWERS OVER               
CENTRAL IL THIS AFTERNOON WHILE DRY OVER SE IL. LOW OVERCAST CLOUDS             
OVER WESTERN IL TO INCREASE OVER EASTERN AND SE IL TOO DURING THIS              
AFTERNOON AS COOLER AIR ARRIVES BOTH AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT. TEMPS            
TO COOL INTO THE 40S DURING THIS AFTERNOON...RANGING FROM THE LOWER             
40S WESTERN IL LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND UPPER 40S AND LOWER 50S OVER             
EASTERN AND SE IL. WINDY WITH SOUTH WINDS 20 TO 30 MPH AND GUSTS IN             
THE 30S TO TURN SSW. INCREASING CLOUD COVER SHOULD KEEP WINDS BELOW             
WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA PLUS TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER NORTHERN             
IL CLOSER TO STRONG LOW OVER IOWA AND MOVING INTO SE MN. LOOKS                  
PRETTY BREEZY TONIGHT AND TUE MORNING AND NAM LOW LEVEL RH FIELDS               
KEEPS CLOUDS AROUND CENTRAL IL TONIGHT AND TUE WITH CLEARING FROM               
THE WEST TUE NIGHT AND LIGHTER WINDS AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO               
THE MS VALLEY.                                                                  
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION...                                                             
LARGE UPPER LEVEL AND SFC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS BECOMING VERTICALLY              
STACKED OVER SOUTHWEST IOWA THIS MORNING.  COLD FRONT IS CROSSING               
THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER AT THE MOMENT... A BIT BEHIND SCHEDULE.                   
FORECAST REMAINS SOMEWHAT COMPLICATED THROUGH THE PERIOD... WITH                
TIMING OF BRINGING OUT MORNING PRECIP THE INITIAL CONCERN.  BEYOND              
THAT... THE POSSIBILITY OF WRAP AROUND PRECIP TONIGHT INTO                      
TUESDAY... ANOTHER SYSTEM POSSIBLY BRINING SNOW WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO            
THURSDAY... AND SIGNALS OF A MORE SIGNIFICANT SYSTEM BY THE WEEKEND.            
SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...                                         
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 881 CONTINUES IN EFFECT UNTIL 12Z/6AM CST FOR              
THE FAR SOUTHEAST COUNTIES.  LINE OF STORMS CONTINUES TO PUSH ACROSS            
THE AREA WITH SOME GUSTY WINDS... BUT SO FAR NO SVR REPORTS                     
RECEIVED.  APPEARS THAT STRONG INVERSION HAS EFFECTIVELY KEPT                   
DAMAGING WINDS FROM MIXING DOWN THUS FAR.                                       
EXPANSIVE BAND OF RAIN SHOULD LIFT NORTHEAST DURING THE MORNING                 
HOURS... CLEARING THE CWA BY LUNCH TIME.  CLOUD COVER MAY BE A BIT              
COMPLICATED TODAY WITH DISTINCT... BUT NARROW... DRY SLOT WRAPPING              
INTO EASTERN MO AND CENTRAL IA.  AREA OF WRAP AROUND STRATOCU                   
FOLLOWS NOT TOO FAR BEHIND.  WITH STRONG CAA ALOFT... FIGURE ANY DAY            
TIME HEATING WILL JUST LEAD TO MORE CLOUD COVER... EFFECTIVELY                  
FILLING IN ANY CLEARING SPOTS RATHER QUICKLY.  EITHER WAY... WE                 
SHOULD OVERALL AVERAGE MOSTLY CLOUDY ACROSS THE REGION.                         
WRAP AROUND PRECIP POTENTIAL SHOULD BE LIMITED THIS AFTERNOON WITH              
THE DRY SLOT MOVING IN.  ALSO... MUCH DRIER LOW LEVEL AIR IS GETTING            
WRAPPED BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.                                                  
THERE SHOULD BE A BETTER CHANCE AT SOME SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS OR               
FLURRIES LATER TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW AS A SECONDARY VORT LOBE MOVES             
ACROSS THE AREA.  WHILE HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR TODAY ARE BEING SET AT            
6AM... THEN DROPPING... ANY PRECIP BEFORE MIDNIGHT TONIGHT SHOULD               
STILL BE LIQUID... THEN CHANGE TO SNOW AS THE COOLER AIR CONTINUES              
TO WORK ITS WAY IN.  CONSIDERING THE TIMING OF THE UPPER VORT                   
LOBE... I PULLED BACK POPS FOR TONIGHT A BIT... KEEPING CHANCE RA/SN            
SHOWERS IN KNOX/STARK/MARSHALL... WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE EXTENDING                
DOWN TO A BMI-PIA LINE.  THEN CHANCE LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS FROM A                  
LINCOLN-CHAMPAIGN LINE FOR TOMORROW.  NO ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED.              
SYSTEM PULLS OUT BY TUESDAY NIGHT... BRINGING CLEAR SKIES FROM WEST             
TO EAST AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BRIEFLY.  TEMPS SHOULD COOL DOWN             
RAPIDLY... ESPECIALLY IN THE CLEARING AREAS TO THE WEST.                        
CONSIDERING THAT THIS SYSTEM IS ALREADY BEHIND SCHEDULE... I SLOWED             
THE PROGRESSION OF TUESDAY NIGHT CLEARING JUST SLIGHTLY.                        
LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...                                   
INDICATIONS ARE NOW THAT BLOCKING PATTERN OVER THE ATLANTIC WILL                
INDEED BREAK DOWN... ALLOWING FOR A FAIRLY MAJOR PATTERN SHIFT                  
ACROSS THE CONUS.  APPEARS THAT THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WILL BE                   
DOMINATED BY A FAST-MOVING QUASI-ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE AREA... WITH             
A FAST MOVING SYSTEM AFFECTING THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND                     
THURSDAY... WITH RATHER BROAD TROUGHING CARVING OUT ACROSS THE CONUS            
BY THE WEEKEND.                                                                 
NEXT CHANCE FOR PRECIP ARRIVES LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS            
FAST MOVING SHORTWAVE TROUGH RACES ACROSS AREA.  GFS APPEARS TO BE              
AN OUTLIER SO FAR... AMPLIFYING THIS WAVE A BIT MORE THAN THE OTHER             
MODELS... RESULTING IN A STRONGER SFC WAVE ALONG SW/NE ORIENTED                 
BAROCLINIC ZONE.  GFS INDICATES RATHER DISTINCT BAND OF PRECIP                  
ACROSS IOWA AND NORTHERN ILLINOIS... WITH MODEST WARM ADVECTION                 
ALOFT OVER CENTRAL ILLINOIS... AND DEFORMATION BAND SET UP TO OUR               
NORTH.  ETA IS SIMILAR TO THE ECMWF WITH LESS AMPLIFIED H5                      
DISTURBANCE... AND RESULTANT WEAKER SFC WAVE.                                   
OVERALL ECMWF IS PREFERRED THROUGH THE PERIOD.  SO WHILE CHANCE FOR             
SNOW IS IN THERE FOR LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING...              
BELIEVE IT SHOULD BE A FAIRLY QUICK MOVING SYSTEM... THUS KEEPING               
POSSIBLE ACCUMULATIONS DOWN.  WILL NEED TO KEEP CAREFUL EYE ON THIS             
AS TENDENCY THIS FALL HAS BEEN TO WIND UP THESE SYSTEMS RATHER                  
RAPIDLY... WITH NUMERICAL GUIDANCE QUICKLY CHANGING IN TIME.                    
QUIET AND COOL WX SHOULD CONTINUE UNTIL LATER IN THE WEEKEND... WITH            
INDICATIONS OF A MORE SIGNIFICANT SYSTEM SLIDING JUST TO OUR SOUTH              
BY SUNDAY.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
NONE.                                                                           
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
HUETTL/HARDIMAN                                                                 
</PRE></TT></td>   il                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA                                       
1220 PM EST MON NOV 28 2005                                                     
.AVIATION...                                                                    
PREFNTL TROUGH NOW INTO WRN INDIANA BUT STILL FORCING LARGE AREA OF             
STRATIFORM RAIN ALG IT W/GENERAL MVFR CIG/VSBY RESTRICTION WITHIN IT            
ALTHOUGH POCKETS OF +RA AND IFR VSBYS NOTED. HWVR LOOKS LIKE SBN                
TERMINAL WILL QUICKLY TURN DRY WHILE FWA HAS ABT 3 MORE HOURS OF                
RAIN TO CONTEND WITH. OTHERWISE XPC GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT TO CIGS                 
W/LOW VFR OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL REMAIN STG INTO EARLY EVENING BFR               
DIMINISHING SOMEWHAT AND LOTS OF PILOT REPORTS OF MOD/SVR TURBULENCE            
WITHIN STG LL WIND FIELD.                                                       
&&                                                                              
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...                                                         
SHORT TERM...                                                                   
TODAY AND TONIGHT.                                                              
DEEP SFC LOW PRESSURE WAS LOCATED OVER NORTHEAST KANSAS/SOUTHEAST               
NEBRASKA AT 08Z. AN ATTENDANT COLD FRONT FROM THIS LOW EXTENDED                 
SOUTHEAST INTO WRN MISSOURI...WRN ARKANSAS...WRN LOUISIANA...THEN               
INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. THE FRONT WILL BE THE MAIN WEATHER PLAYER              
FOR THE SHORT TERM FORECAST.                                                    
LATEST RUC40 AND 06Z NAM INDICATE A STRONG 850 MB LLJ ACROSS                    
ILLINOIS...IN WHICH THE NOSE OF THE JET WAS PRODUCING SPEED                     
CONVERGENCE OVER NRN ILLINOIS ATTM. MOSAIC RADAR DEPICTED                       
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS OVER ILLINOIS. THE                
BULK OF THIS PCPN WILL MOVE NORTH INTO WISCONSIN THIS                           
MORNING...CLIPPING THE WRN PERIPHERY OF THE FCST AREAS. ELSEWHERE               
FOR THIS MORNING...BROAD...MOIST ASCENT WILL JUST RESULT IN A                   
CHANCE OF SHOWERS.                                                              
FOR THIS AFTERNOON...AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SLOWLY                 
NORTHEAST TO NEAR THE ILLINOIS/INDIANA BORDER BY 18Z/1 PM EST. SFC              
TO 850 MB CONVERGENCE AHEAD OF THE FRONT...COUPLED WITH UPR LVL                 
DYNAMICAL LIFT WILL RESULT IN A BAND OF SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED                    
THUNDERSTORMS. WITH VERY STRONG WINDS ALOFT...AROUND 60 MPH AT 1500             
FEET ABOVE THE SFC...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF               
PRODUCING LOCAL WIND GUSTS AROUND 40 MPH...AND PERHAPS NEAR 60 MPH              
IN THE STRONGER STORMS. SWODY1 HIGHLIGHTS THIS POTENTIAL...AND WILL             
ALSO HIGHLIGHT THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED SEVERE IN THE HAZARDOUS               
WEATHER OUTLOOK. OTHERWISE...BAND OF SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED                       
THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE SLOWLY WEST TO EAST ACRS THE CWFA THIS                  
AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. MOST OF THE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM                
ACTIVITY SHOULD BE EAST OF THE CWFA AROUND MIDNIGHT OR SO.                      
ON ANOTHER NOTE...STRONG SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT TODAY WILL PRODUCE               
SOUTH WINDS BETWEEN 20 MPH AND 30 MPH. WILL NOT ISSUE A WIND                    
ADVISORY ATTM...BUT DAYSHIFT WILL HAVE TO MONITOR SFC                           
OBSERVATIONS/LATER FORECAST GUIDANCE SHOULD AN ADVISORY                         
BE WARRANTED.                                                                   
FINALLY...TEMPERATURES WILL BE A LITTLE TRICKY TODAY GIVEN STRONG               
LOW LVL THERMAL ADVECTION AND THE TIMING OF THE PRECIPITATION.                  
HAVE JUST TWEAKED CURRENT FCST TEMPS HERE AND THERE. HIGHS UPPER 50S            
NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN...TO THE MID 60S FAR SOUTHEAST STILL LOOK GOOD.              
FOR TONIGHT...CURRENT FORECAST LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S WEST TO THE                
LOWER 40S EAST ARE ON TRACK.                                                    
LONG TERM...                                                                    
ON TUESDAY THE FRONT WILL BE OFF TO THE EAST AND THE CENTER OF THE              
LOW WILL BE AROUND LAKE SUPERIOR. NOT EXPECTING TOO MUCH PRECIP TO              
FALL ON TUESDAY. LOTS OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL STILL BE AROUND                
THEN...MAINLY FROM 850MB DOWN TO THE SFC. JUST A QUESTION ON HOW                
MUCH LIFT CAN BE GENERATED YET ON TUESDAY. ALSO ITS MARGINAL WHETHER            
THERE WILL BE ANY/MUCH ICE NUCLEATION. JUST DROPPED THE SHOWERS                 
ADJECTIVE FROM TUESDAY AND KEPT THE 25 PERCENT POP. STILL WRAP                  
AROUND MOISTURE TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW CONTINUES TO PULL AWAY FROM            
THE REGION. THEN WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT OUR CWA WILL BE IN              
BETWEEN SYSTEMS. ON THURSDAY THE MODELS ARE STILL MOVING AN UPPER               
LEVEL TROUGH THROUGH THE AREA. TEMPERATURE PROFILES AND THICKNESSES             
ARE COLD ENOUGH FOR THE PRECIP ON THURSDAY TO BE SNOW. WILL HAVE TO             
WAIT FOR THURSDAY TO GET CLOSER BUT AT THIS EARLY POINT THE GFS IS              
PUTTING OUT UP TO 3 INCHES OF SNOW...BUT OF COURSE THE GFS IS                   
USUALLY GENEROUS WITH ITS QPF. FRIDAY THEN THERE COULD BE SOME LAKE             
EFFECT SNOW WITH THE WIND OUT OF THE NORTHWEST AS A SURFACE HIGH                
PRESSURE RIDGE MOVES IN. SATURDAY AND SUNDAY THAT HIGH PRESSURE                 
RIDGE WILL BE IN PLACE. WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED BUT THE GFS IS                  
TRYING TO BRING IN SOME QPF LATE SUNDAY. BUT WITH MOST DAYS THROUGH             
OUT THE YEAR DRY...STAYED WITH CONSISTENCY FOR SUNDAY AND LEFT DRY.             
DID NOT SEE ANY MAJOR CHANGES FOR THE TUESDAY TO NEXT SUNDAY PERIOD             
TO WARRANT ANY MAJOR CHANGES TO THE TEMPERATURES.                               
&&                                                                              
.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
IN...NONE.                                                                      
MI...NONE.                                                                      
OH...NONE.                                                                      
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR LMZ043-LMZ046.           
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHORT TERM...30                                                                 
LONG TERM....98                                                                 
AVIATION...30                                                                   
</PRE></TT></td>   in                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS                                            
235 PM MST MON NOV 28 2005                                                      
.DISCUSSION...MAIN QUESTIONS IS WHEN WILL THE SNOW END AND THE WIND             
DIE DOWN. WILL ANY HIGHLIGHTS BE NEEDED IN THE EARLY EVENING.                   
FINALLY HOW COLD WILL TEMPERATURES BE. THE EASTERN FORECAST AREA                
WILL BE THE BIGGEST CHALLENGE FOR SNOW AND WINDS.                               
BOTH THE GFS/NAM INDICATE THAT THE LAST CLOSED CONTOUR OF THE UPPER             
LOW WILL STILL BE OVER THE EAST AT 00Z SO WILL LIKELY NEED TO                   
CONTINUE SNOW THERE. THE RUC SEEMS TO HAVE THE BEST HANDLE ON THE               
WINDS AND INDICATES THAT WINDS WILL REMAIN A CONCERN UNTIL ABOUT 03Z            
TUESDAY. PLAN TO MONITOR METARS/RADAR PRIOR TO ISSUANCE BEFORE                  
MAKING FINAL DECISION. HAVE DECIDED TO CONTINUE BLIZZARD WARNING IN             
THE NORTHERN ZONES THROUGH THIS EVENING (06Z TUE) BASED ON WINDS AND            
WHITEOUT CONDITIONS CONTINUING IN OPEN AREAS. ZONES TO THE WEST OF              
THE BLIZZARD WARNING WILL BE IN A BLOWING SNOW ADVISORY TIL 06Z                 
BASED ON LIMITED SNOWFALL AND WINDS FROM 30 TO 45KTS.                           
BEYOND TONIGHT NORTHWEST FLOW AND SUBSIDENCE WILL FOLLOW THROUGH                
TUESDAY. ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS              
ON WEDNESDAY WITH DYNAMICS FAR ENOUGH SOUTH TO WARRANT AT LEAST                 
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR -SN. THE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH QUICKLY WITH               
NORTHWEST FLOW AND SUBSIDENCE FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY.            
RIDGING STARTS TO MOVE INTO THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY NIGHT. AT THE            
SURFACE...A TROUGH MOVES INTO THE AREA TUESDAY WITH WINDS RETURNING             
TO THE SOUTH. ON WEDNESDAY...LOW PRESSURE SETS UP OVER SOUTHEAST                
COLORADO. HIGH PRESSURE FOLLOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUES UNTIL             
A LEE TROUGH DEVELOPS THURSDAY NIGHT. OVERALL THE FORECAST BEYOND               
TONIGHT WILL BE DRY WITH THE EXCEPTION OF WEDNESDAY.                            
TEMPERATURES WILL BE DEPENDENT ON THE SNOW FIELD WHICH IS EXTENSIVE             
ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA EXCEPT THE FAR SOUTH ZONES.                    
GUIDANCE IS CLOSE ON LOW TEMPERATURES AND WILL FOLLOW. LOW                      
TEMPERATURES WILL RESIDE IN THE TEENS. MAX TEMPERATURES WILL HAVE               
DIFFICULTY GETTING OUT OF THE 30S OVER THE SNOW FIELD COMBINED WITH             
ANOTHER SHOT OF COLD AIR WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT.                             
EXTENDED...FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WILL BE IN ZONAL FLOW WITH DRY                   
WEATHER. SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY AN UPPER TROUGH MOVES THROUGH. THE               
ECMWF IS ALSO SHOWING THIS SO HAVE DECIDED TO ADD SLIGHT CHANCE OF              
-SN FOR THIS PERIOD. FLOW BECOMES NORTHWEST ON MONDAY. PLAN TO KEEP             
MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT DRY. FRIDAY WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY WITH COLDER             
AIR COMING INTO THE PLAINS AND STAYING THROUGH MONDAY. SOME                     
DOWNSLOPE EARLY FRIDAY WILL BE OFFSET BY COLD AIR MOVING IN DURING              
THE AFTERNOON. MAX TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE IN THE 30S WITH LOWS IN              
THE TEENS TO LOWER 20S.                                                         
&&                                                                              
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
KS...BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR KSZ001-KSZ002-             
     KSZ003-KSZ004-KSZ014-KSZ015-KSZ016.                                        
     BLOWING SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM MST /MIDNIGHT CST/ THIS                  
     EVENING FOR KSZ013-KSZ027-KSZ028-KSZ029.                                   
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 5 PM MST /6 PM CST/ THIS AFTERNOON              
     FOR KSZ028-KSZ029-KSZ041-KSZ042.                                           
     BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 5 PM MST THIS AFTERNOON FOR KSZ013-KSZ027.          
NE...BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 11 PM MST /MIDNIGHT CST/ THIS EVENING FOR           
     NEZ079-NEZ080-NEZ081.                                                      
CO...BLOWING SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR COZ090-             
     COZ091-COZ092.                                                             
     BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 5 PM MST THIS AFTERNOON FOR COZ090-COZ091-          
     COZ092.                                                                    
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
FS                                                                              
</PRE></TT></td>   ks                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY                                             
310 PM EST MON NOV 28 2005                                                      
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
PATTERN CHANGE CONTINUES WITH SOME IMPORTANT CHANGES SHAPING UP FOR             
NEXT WEEKEND. RIDGE ALONG ERN SEABOARD WILL BE NUDGED INTO THE WRN              
ATLANTIC BY MIDWEEK AS VERTICALLY STACKED LOW OVER THE PLAINS MERGES            
WITH HUDSON BAY CLOSED LOW AND THE WHOLE THING DUMBBELLS S AND THEN             
SE SETTING UP A W TO E ORIENTED TROF OVER NEW ENGLAND. MODELS THEN              
DIVERGE AS WE HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND AND FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK AS              
SRN STREAM JET GETS ACTIVE AND SYSTEMS EJECT OUT OF THE SW US TOWARD            
E KY.                                                                           
SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THRU TUESDAY NIGHT)...SHORT TERM FORECAST                   
PROBLEM IS SQUALL LINE AND POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WX AS FRONT CROSSES             
THE AREA TONIGHT AND STRONG WINDS IN ADVANCE OF ANY TSRA. FIRST OFF             
WILL BE EXTENDING NPW FOR WIND TO ALL COUNTIES WITH GUSTS OVER 40               
MPH ALREADY NOTED ON AREA ASOS/AWOS/SCHOOLNET SITES. EXPECT WINDS TO            
SUBSIDE AS FRONT PASSES TUE...AND WHILE THEY WILL REMAIN GUSTY                  
TOMORROW THINK THEY WILL FALL SHORT OF ADVISORY CRITERIA SO WILL BE             
ENDING THE NPW AT 6 AM EST.                                                     
STRONG PRE-FRONTAL SQUALL LINE ONGOING OVER CENTRAL KY AT MID                   
AFTERNOON. RUC SHOWS A STRONG LLVL JET OVER W KY WHICH IS SUPPORTING            
THESE STORMS AND THIS JET RACES OFF TO THE NNE THRU THE AFTERNOON.              
INSTABILITY IS LACKING ACROSS THE JKL CWA AS MUCAPES REMAIN LESS                
THAN 100 J/KG...HOWEVER SHEAR CONTINUES TO BE IMPRESSIVE W/ 0-3 KM              
HELICITY VALUES PROGGED TO EXCEED 600 M2/S2 THRU THE EVENING HOURS.             
EXPECT LOW TOPPED CONVECTIVE SQUALL LINE TO RACE THRU THE AREA AND              
DECREASE IN INTENSITY AS IT DOES SO AS WINDS REMAIN SRLY...                     
DOWNSLOPING OFF THE PLATEAU AND APPS KEEPING LLVL MOISTURE FROM                 
RESPONDING AS IT IS OVER THE CENTRAL PART OF THE STATE. HOWEVER W/              
THE AMOUNT OF SPEED SHEAR IN THE ATMOSPHERE...DAMAGING WINDS REMAIN             
POSSIBLE AND THE AREA CONTINUES TO BE OUTLOOKED W/ A SLT RISK BY THE            
SPC. AN ISOLATED TORNADO IS ALSO A DISTINCT POSSIBILITY...MAINLY                
OVER THE SW PART OF THE CWA...WHERE ENOUGH CAPE MAY EXIST TO HELP               
SPIN ONE UP.                                                                    
THE FRONT SHOULD BE EXITING THE AREA BY AROUND DAWN TOMORROW. EXPECT            
GOOD SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE FRONT AND A BREAK IN THE CLOUDS BEFORE               
WRAP AROUND MOISTURE ARRIVES TOMORROW NIGHT. WE WILL LIKELY GET SOME            
RISE IN TEMPS W/ SUNSHINE TOMORROW AFTERNOON ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE              
ERN HALF OF THE CWA. LLVL MOISTURE INCREASES SOMEWHAT TUE NIGHT BUT             
MOISTURE IS THIN...MAINLY BELOW 850 MB...AND WIND TRAJECTORIES ARE              
WRLY...NOT A GOOD UPSLOPE DIRECTION...SO BELIEVE P/C WILL COVER THE             
SKY CONDITIONS AND WILL CONTINUE TO LEAVE POPS OUT.                             
FOR TEMPS...WENT A LITTLE ABOVE MOS TONIGHT W/ A LOT OF MIXING                  
KEEPING TEMPS UP AND WITH SUNSHINE EXPECTED TOMORROW...CONTINUE TO              
RELY ON THE MET MOS NUMBERS W/ HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S OUT E AND                 
AROUND 50 ALONG MY BORDER W/ LMK. EXPECT ENOUGH BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS            
TUE NIGHT TO GO A LITTLE LOWER THAN ALL AVAILABLE GUIDANCE IN THE               
VALLEYS BUT WILL STAY CLOSE AT JKL.                                             
EXTENDED (WEDNESDAY THRU MONDAY)...PER HPC/S EXTENDED GUIDANCE HAVE             
LEANED THE FORECAST TOWARD THE ECMWF FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD. THE               
DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE ECMWF AND GFS ARE MINOR UNTIL THE VERY END              
OF THE PERIOD HOWEVER.                                                          
HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESIDE OVER THE AREA WED AND GRADUALLY SLIDE                 
EWARD AS A S/W DIGS SE INTO THE OHIO VALLEY AND SENDS A COLD FRONT              
THRU E KY DURING THE DAY THU. THIS IS ABOUT 12 HRS FASTER THAN                  
PROGGED YESTERDAY. NO TIME FOR THE GULF TO FEED MOISTURE INTO THE               
SYSTEM SO ANY PCPN WILL LIKELY BE IN A NW FLOW REGIME BEHIND THE                
FROPA LATE THU INTO EARLY FRI. COOL HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES IN BEHIND              
DURING THE DAY FRI. MOISTURE THEN RETURNS SAT AS A SRN STREAM SYSTEM            
TAKES SHAPE OVER TX AND MOVES QUICKLY EWARD INTO THE TN VALLEY OR               
SRN OHIO VALLEY ON SUN. THIS IS A MARKED CHANGE FROM YESTERDAY/S                
THINKING SO WILL INCREASE SKY GRIDS AND INTRODUCE POPS FOR THE                  
WEEKEND. MODEL CONTINUITY IS TERRIBLE AT THIS POINT BUT THIS CHANGE             
IS BACKED UP WELL BY THE OP MODELS AND ALL ENSEMBLE DATA THAT I CAN             
VIEW SO CONFIDENCE IS FAIRLY GOOD. TEMPS MODERATE IN SWRLY FLOW SO              
PCPN SHOULD REMAIN LIQUID EXCEPT FOR MAYBE SOME SNOW FLAKES MIXED IN            
TO START EARLY SAT MORNING. WILL LEAN ON THE ECMWF/HPC GUIDANCE FOR             
DAY 7 WHICH WILL MEAN HIGH PRESSURE NOSING INTO THE AREA BEHIND THE             
STORM SYSTEM AS IT DEPARTS TO THE NE. GFS BRINGS ANOTHER LOW ACROSS             
TN WHILE ECMWF IS MUCH SLOWER W/ ANY S/W ALOFT THAT WOULD BE DRIVING            
THE SURFACE LOW.                                                                
STUCK CLOSE TO MEX GUIDANCE THRU SUN AND THIS RESULTED IN AN                    
INCREASE TO EXPECTED WEEKEND TEMPS AS WAA AHEAD OF SURFACE LOW TO               
THE S SHOULD RESULT IN TEMPS IN THE 40S TO NEAR 50 SAT AND SUN.                 
ENSEMBLE BLEND FOR MON IS MUCH COOLER THAN MEX GUIDANCE AND BELIEVE             
THIS TO BE MORE ACCURATE AS COOLER AIR FLOWS IN BEHIND DEPARTING                
STORM SYSTEM.                                                                   
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION...                                                             
514 AM EST MON NOV 28 2005                                                      
SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THRU WEDNESDAY)...                                          
CURRENT SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS LOW PRESSURE CENTERED OVER NERN KANSAS               
AND AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT EXTENDING DOWN THROUGH ARKANSAS AND                
LOUISIANA.                                                                      
NAM AND GFS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR THE SHORT TERM ALOFT AND AT               
THE SURFACE. FOR THE GRIDS...LOADED IN NAM DATA FOR THE WINDS AND               
TIMING OF THE SQUALL LINE/PRECIPITATION...OTHERWISE USED THE GFS                
DATA FOR TEMPERATURES.                                                          
WITH DOWNSLOPING...KEPT EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA DRY TODAY. KEPT             
POPS IN THE CHANCE CATEGORY WITH THE MODELS SHOWING SOME WEAK                   
ISENTROPIC LIFT OVER THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. THE AREA WILL             
REMAIN IN THE WARM SECTOR TODAY...COMBINED WITH STRONG SOUTHERLY                
FLOW AND BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS...RECORD HIGHS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE              
EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS TODAY AS THE                 
FRONT APPROACHES...AND BUFKIT IS SHOWING THE POTENTIAL FOR GUSTS UP             
TO 45 MPH ON THE HIGHEST RIDGES. HELD OFF ON A WIND ADVISORY FOR NOW            
ON THE RIDGES...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION STRONG GUSTS IN THE                
HWO.                                                                            
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING OF THE SQUALL LINE                 
TONIGHT...BRINGING IT THROUGH THE AREA BETWEEN 6 AND 11Z. MODELS                
STILL INDICATE STRONG LL/SHEAR. WITH LLJ AROUND 50-60 KNOTS                     
DEVELOPING OVER THE AREA...COMBINED INCREASED MOISTURE AND STRONG               
DIVERGENCE ALOFT...CONTINUED WITH CATEGORICAL POPS. SPC HAS PLACED              
THE AREA IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR DAY 1...WITH THE MAIN THREAT BEING                
HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. WITH STRONG LOW-LEVEL SHEAR AN ISOLATED                
TORNADO COULD ALSO BE POSSIBLE. TIMING OF THE SQUALL LINE PASSING               
THROUGH THE AREA SHOULD BE A LIMITING FACTOR TO THE SEVERE                      
POTENTIAL...BUT WILL MAKE MENTION OF A CHANCE OF SEVERE STORMS IN               
THE HWO.                                                                        
POPS END FROM WEST TO EAST ON TUESDAY...AS THE COLD FRONT PULLS                 
EAST. 5H TROF MOVES THROUGH THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT...BUT AGREE WITH             
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION AND WILL KEEP THE AREA DRY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS            
OVER THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY.                                                     
DID NOT MAKE ANY CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST.              
FOR TEMPERATURES...MAV TEMPERATURES LOOKED REASONABLE...SO STAYED               
CLOSE. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW STRONG CAA ON TUESDAY...SO NEAR                  
STEADY TEMPERATURES IF NOT FALLING TEMPERATURES ARE IN STORE.                   
&&                                                                              
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...WIND ADVISORY ALL ZONES THRU 6 AM            
EST TUE                                                                         
.                                                                               
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
ABE                                                                             
</PRE></TT></td>   ky                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC                                          
301 PM EST MON NOV 28 2005                                                      
.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)...                                
LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW HIGHLY AMPLIFIED                   
PATTERN THIS AFTERNOON WITH POTENT MID LEVEL CYCLONE APPROACHING                
THE GREAT LAKES REGION. MID-LEVEL PATTERN WILL RELAX AND BECOME                 
MORE ZONAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.                                                  
AT THE SURFACE...A MOISTURE LADEN COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE              
AREA OVERNIGHT TUESDAY INTO THE MORNING WEDNESDAY. DESPITE THE                  
CHANGEABLE CONDITIONS...INHERITED FORECAST HAS TRENDS CAPTURED                  
WELL AND HAVE MADE ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS.                                      
THE FIRST CONCERN CENTERS AROUND EARLY EVENING AND OVERNIGHT POPS.              
STRONG DIFLUENCE ALOFT...ONCE AGAIN DISCERNIBLE ON THE                          
AFOREMENTIONED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...COMBINED WITH 500MB                        
VORTICITY...RESPONSIBLE FOR MCS NOW MOVING ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN                  
GEORGIA. RUC SEEMS TO HAVE THE BEST HANDLE ON THIS ACTIVITY...AND               
MAINTAINS THE AREA...TO A WEAKER EXTENT...THROUGH THIS EVENING IN               
THE SOUTH CAROLINA COUNTIES. WILL MOST LIKELY INCREASE POPS TO                  
LIKELY IF NOT CATEGORICAL VALUES IN THESE AREAS WHILE RESERVING                 
THE RIGHT TO TWEAK AT THE LAST MINUTE BASED ON RADAR TRENDS.                    
FRONTAL PASSAGE STILL SLATED FOR LATE TUESDAY...EARLY MORNING                   
WEDNESDAY PER GFS. THE NAM IS SLOWER WITH THE PROGRESSION AND                   
HOLDS THE BOUNDARY ALONG THE COAST THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY. HAVE              
USED THE GFS DEPICTION.                                                         
HAVE INCREASED POPS TO CATEGORICAL ALL AREAS TUESDAY AS STRONG                  
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT AND GOOD CONTINUITY FOR SEVERAL CYCLES              
NOW WARRANTS THIS UP-TICK.                                                      
GOOD AGREEMENT ON TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE AMONG THE MAV AND MET                    
PRODUCTS...AT LEAST THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING. NUMBERS DIVERGE                    
SOMEWHAT ON MAX TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY BASED ON MODEST COLD AIR                 
ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT. HAVE USED THE COOLER MAV NUMBERS.                   
SPC CONTINUES TO INCLUDE THE AREA IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR TUESDAY WITH A           
HIGH SHEAR/LOW CAPE SITUATION. THIS HAS BEEN ADDRESSED IN THE                   
LATEST HWO.                                                                     
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM (THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY)...                                         
THE EXTENDED CONTINUES TO LOOK RATHER BENIGN AS MID-LEVEL PATTERN               
WILL BE ZONAL. A WEAK STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST FOR                 
THE WEEKEND AND HAVE INTRODUCED POPS FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.                   
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
GENERALLY VFR HERE IN THE WARM SECTOR WITH BKN TO OVC CLOUDS ABOVE              
10KFT AND JUST SOME SCATTERED LOW CLOUDS. CURRENTLY A SMALL AREA OF             
SHOWERS IS AFFECTING FLO BUT SO FAR WITHOUT ANY DEGRADATION IN                  
FLIGHT CATEGORY. WARM ADVECTION WILL BRING A LOWERING OF CIGS                   
OVERNIGHT BUT ONLY INTO THE REALM OF MVFR. WILL ALSO BEGIN CARRYING             
SOME LIGHT PREDOMINANT PRECIP AROUND 06Z FOR ALL TERMS AS UPPER JET             
ENERGY ROUNDING THE TROUGH IN THE NATIONS MIDSECTION MAY CAUSE                  
ENOUGH LIFT. BETTER CHANCES FOR SHRA COME TOMORROW ALTHOUGH TIMING              
IS TOUGH TO PIN DOWN AT THIS POINT. THERE MAY BE A BREAK IN THE WAA             
PRECIP SOME TIME IN THE MORNING AS THE WAA SHUTS OFF AND THE FORCING            
SWITCHES TO A MORE CONVECTIVE MODE WITH LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AHEAD             
OF THE FRONT. TOWARDS THE END OF THE FCST PERIOD SOME MORE                      
PRONOUNCED SYNOPTIC FORCING IN BOTH THE LOW AND MID LEVELS SHOULD               
BRING PLENTY OF CONVECTIVE SHOWERS AND MAYBE SOME THUNDER.                      
&&                                                                              
.MARINE...                                                                      
VERY MUCH A PROGRESSIVE PATTERN THE NEXT 5 DAYS...WITH SCA                      
CONDITIONS OCCURRING NEARLY 1/3RD OF THIS TIME.                                 
MODELS BASICALLY IN AGREEMENT TONIGHT THROUGH 00Z WED WITH RESPECT              
TO SYNOPTIC CONDITIONS ACROSS THE CAROLINAS. AFTERWARDS...MODELS                
DIFFER IN THE APPROACH OF THE COLD FRONT AND ITS PASSAGE ACROSS THE             
AREA. TEND TO FAVOR THE QUICKER GFS OVER THE SLOWER NAM...WITH CFP              
WED AROUND 06Z. THE SFC PG IS PROGGED TO FURTHER TIGHTEN AHEAD OF               
THIS FRONT LATER TONIGHT AND TUE...RESULTING IN WINDS SURPASSING SCA            
THRESHOLDS. SEAS TO FURTHER BUILD...MAINLY FROM 2 SOURCES...A                   
DISTANT EASTERLY SWELL COMBINED WITH LOCAL WIND EFFECTS. AFTER THE              
CFP...SHULD SEE A BRIEF NW TO N SURGE FROM COMBINED CAA AND INITIAL             
TIGHT SFC PRES GRADIENT. THE CAA WILL BE SHORT-LIVED AS A RESULT OF             
A MODIFIED AIR MASS WITH ITS SOURCE REGION FROM THE SW STATES. FLOW             
ALOFT TO BECOME BETTER AMPLIFIED LATE THU THROUGH SAT. THIS WILL                
RESULT IN THE NEXT CFP LATE THU NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY EXCELLENT CAA               
WITH ITS SOURCE REGION EMANATING FROM CENTRAL CANADA. COMBINED WINDS            
FROM CAA AND THE TIGHT SFC PG TO YIELD SCA CONDITIONS ONCE AGAIN.               
FEW DIFFERENCES WITH THIS CFP FROM THE PREVIOUS...IT WILL BE A DRY              
PASSAGE...AND NO TIGHTENING OF THE SFC PG PRIOR TO ITS PASSAGE EARLY            
FRIDAY...AND FINALLY A MORE PRONOUNCED CAA. THE SCA CONDITIONS AFTER            
THIS CFP WILL BE SHORT-LIVED...DUE TO THE PROGRESSION OF THE CENTER             
OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA BY SATURDAY.                            
&&                                                                              
.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
NC...NONE.                                                                      
SC...NONE.                                                                      
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR AMZ250-252-254-256 UNTIL 6 PM                 
     WEDNESDAY.                                                                 
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHORT TERM...SHK                                                                
LONG TERM...SHK                                                                 
AVIATION...MBB                                                                  
MARINE...HOEHLER                                                                
</PRE></TT></td>   nc                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OHIO                                         
330 PM EST MON NOV 28 2005                                                      
.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH THU)...                                            
COLD FRONT FROM CHICAGO THRU EVV INTO ALABAMA. AIRMASS AHD OF THE               
FRONT HAS NOT BECOME UNSTABLE YET AS SPECIAL 18Z ILN SOUNDING SHOWED            
ZERO CAPE WITH STRONG CAP AROUND 800MB. MANY AREAS DID RISE INTO THE            
UPR 60S TODAY...BUT LOW LVL MOISTURE WITH DWPTS IN THE LOWER 50S WAS            
LACKING. WL NEED TO WATCH ALONG THE FRONT THOUGH AS RUC ANALYSIS                
DATA SHOWS A PLUME OF HIGHER DWPTS IMMEDIATELY AHD OF THE FNT. IN               
FACT...THE SPC ANALYSIS PAGE SHOWS SOME WEAK INSTABILITY MOVING N               
ALONG THE OH/IN BORDER. AM UNCERTAIN OF THUNDER TONIGHT...BUT THE               
18Z SOUNDING DOES SHOW SOME POTENTIAL WK INSTABILITY ALOFT                      
ESPECIALLY IF THE CAP CAN WEAKEN SLIGHTLY. WITH THE PLUME OF WK                 
INSTABILITY MOVING NWD PER SPC ANALYSIS...THUNDER CANNOT BE RULED               
OUT AND WILL CONTINUE IN THE FCST. IF THERE IS ANY CONVECTIVE                   
ELEMENTS TONIGHT...SVR WINDS CANNOT BE RULED OUT EITHER WITH 70KT               
WINDS AT 3000FT...WITH INCREDIBLE SHEAR AS 0-3KM SRH FROM ILN                   
SOUNDING OVER 1000 M2/S2. WL THEREFORE GO WITH CHC THUNDER...AND                
CONTINUE WITH POSSIBLE SVR WORDING TONIGHT. GRADIENT WIND STRONG                
WITH 20-30KT AT THE SFC...BUT IT JUST CANNOT MIX DOWN AT ALL AS OF              
YET. WL CONTINUE WITH 20-30MPH WITH GUSTS TO 40 OVERNIGHT. NO WIND              
ADVY AS IT WOULD SEEM THAT ANY STRONG WINDS WOULD BE ASSOCIATED WITH            
CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS...AND IF THIS WOULD OCCUR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM               
WARNINGS WOULD BE ISSUED. NAM DOES SHOW STRONGER WIND ADVY TYPE                 
WINDS ALONG THE LAKESHORE E OF CLE TONIGHT...BUT THE NAM USUALLY HAS            
A HIGH WIND BIAS IN SE FLOW ALONG THE LAKESHORE. IN FACT...WITH THE             
SHOWERS MOVING THRU NE OH/NW PA ATTM...THINK THIS MAY SERVE TO                  
STABILIZE THE BL MORE THUS KEEPING HIGH WINDS FROM MIXING DOWN.                 
LOOKS LIKE THE PCPN SHIELD MAY BE SLIGHTLY FASTER THAN THE 12Z RUNS             
SUGGESTED. HOWEVER...CATEGORICAL POPS FOR ALL AREAS TONIGHT SEEM                
REASONABLE. FRONT SHOULD SPEED UP TONIGHT AS THE UPR VORT CATCHES UP            
WITH IT. SHOULD BE NR THE OH/PA BORDER 12Z TUE. WL STILL NEED TO GO             
LKLY POPS EAST BUT SMALL CHC EAST TUE. THICKNESS VALUES SUGGEST ANY             
PCPN WL REMAIN ALL RAIN UNTIL TUE EVENING THEN RAIN/SNOW MIX                    
POSSIBLE WITH 1000-850MB THICKNESS VALUES NEAR 1304M. SYSTEM LIFTS              
INTO THE NRN LAKES TUE NIGHT WITH WK RIDGING INTO THE SRN LAKES BY              
WED. LAYER RH 30% OR LESS SO IT SHOULD END UP BEING A PARTLY SUNNY              
DAY. MAY HAVE A FEW LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS IN THE SNOWBELT WED IN             
W-SE FLOW...BUT INVERSION HEIGHT LOW AND 850MB TEMPS AROUND -7C VERY            
MARGINA. NAM AND GFS SHOW A SHORT WAVE ROTATING INTO THE AREA WED               
NIGHT INTO THU. 1000/850MB THICKNESS VALUES BELOW 1300M SO ANY PCPN             
WED NIGHT SHOULD BE ALL SNOW.                                                   
TEMPS WILL END UP FALLING DURING THE DAY TUE...THEN DROP TO SLIGHTLY            
BELOW NORMAL FOR WED/THU.                                                       
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM (FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)...                                           
ECMWF MODEL HAS BEEN CONSISTENT THE PAST SVRL RUNS IN SHOWING FAST              
FLOW ACROSS THE COUNTRY WITH THE MODEL DEVELOPING A POLAR VORTEX OVR            
SRN CANADA FOR THE WKND. ECMWF HAS BEEN CONSISTENT IN SHOWING A FAST            
MOVING SYSTEM MOVING FROM OK TO KY THEN TO VA FOR SAT. FORECAST AREA            
IN COLD ENOUGH AIR THAT PCPN FROM THIS SYSTEM SHOULD BE ALL SNOW.               
THIS TYPE OF TRACK CAN GIVE SVRL INCHES OF SYNOPTIC SNOW TO THE AREA            
IF THERE IS ENOUGH MOISTURE. LOOKS LIKE THE ECMWF TRIES TO OPEN THE             
GULF UP FOR A SHORT TIME...BUT FAST MOVEMENT OF THE SYSTEM MAY                  
INHIBIT EXCESSIVE MOISTURE INFLUX INTO THE REGION. THE SYSTEM DOES              
ALLOW THE COLD VORTEX TO ROTATE INTO THE GTLKS FOR THE END OF THE               
WKND AND THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WK. SHOULD BE LES SUN AND MON IN NW              
FLOW BEHIND THE SYSTEM. WL GO WITH BLO NORMAL TEMPS THRU THE PD WITH            
CHC OF SNOW EACH DAY.                                                           
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION(18Z-18Z)...                                                           
SHOWERS WITH AN OCCASIONAL RUMBLE OF THUNDER ASSOCIATED WITH A                  
PRE-FRONTAL SURFACE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO MARCH EASTWARD THROUGH              
CENTRAL INDIANA AND WESTERN OHIO THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE                   
AFTERNOON HOURS.  ALL MODEL GUIDANCE IS STRUGGLING TO GRASP THE                 
CURRENT SITUATION...WITH NO MODEL INDICATING ANY QPF WHATSOEVER AT              
THE INDIANA OHIO BORDER UNTIL CLOSER TO 21Z. FEEL THAT SPEEDING UP              
THE TIMING OF PRECIP ARRIVAL IS BEST...AND CHOSE TO BRING IN SHOWERS            
TO TOL AS EARLY AS 22Z...CLE BY 04Z AND ERI BY 07Z. STILL FEEL THAT             
THE TROUGH WILL BE SLOW MOVING GIVEN UPPER LEVEL FLOW PARALLEL TO               
THE TROUGH...AND CHOSE TO HANG ONTO LINGERING PRECIP AT EASTERN                 
TERMINALS UP UNTIL ACTUAL SYNOPTIC FRONT MOVES THROUGH LATE IN THE              
PERIOD.  LITTLE TO NO THUNDER UPSTREAM HAS LED ME TO OPT OUT OF                 
MENTIONING TSRA IN THE FORECAST...BUT DID MENTION OVC025CB AND MVFR             
VSBYS DURING THE HEAVIEST RAIN.                                                 
ALSO OF IMPORTANCE...EARLY MORNING WIND SHEAR HAS GIVEN WAY TO GUSTY            
WINDS IN THE 25-35 KT RANGE...AND HAVE DECIDED TO DROP MENTION OF               
LLWS IN THE TAFS.  THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES FOR THE DURATION OF THE               
FORECAST PERIOD ALSO INDICATE GUSTY CONDITIONS INSTEAD OF LLWS EVEN             
TOMORROW MORNING.                                                               
&&                                                                              
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
OH...GALE WARNING LAKE ERIE.                                                    
PA...GALE WARNING LAKE ERIE.                                                    
&&                                                                              
SHORT TERM...MRD                                                                
LONG TERM...MRD                                                                 
AVIATION...LEINS                                                                
$$                                                                              
</PRE></TT></td>   oh                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC                                          
500 PM EST MON NOV 28 2005                                                      
.AVIATION UPDATE...PCPN IS QUICKLY ENDING ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVNG             
IN THE WAKE OF A WK SHORTWAVE THAT IS MOVING UP THE SC/GA COAST. A              
WELL DEFINED DRY SLOT IS MOVING IN FROM THE SW SO HAVE AMENDED BOTH             
THE CHS AND SAV TAFS TO REMOVE MENTION OF TSTMS...IMPROVE VSBYS AND             
BE A LTL MORE OPTIMISTIC ON CIGS FOR THE NXT SEVERAL HRS.                       
WE ARE CLOSELY MONITORING THE NEED FOR LOW LVL WND SHEAR TNGT. WNDS             
OFF THE KCLX VWP ARE ALREADY S 35-40 KT AT 2000 FT WHICH IS IN-LINE             
WITH THE LATEST RUC WND FCST. SE SFC WNDS AROUND 8 KT COUPLED WITH S            
OF 35 KT AT 2000 FT YIELD 30 KT OF WND SHEAR THROUGH THE COLUMN. IF             
TRENDS CONTINUE WE WL PROBABLY INCLUDE LOW LVL WND SHEAR IN BOTH                
TAFS WITH THE 00Z TAF CYCLE.                                                    
&&                                                                              
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...                                                         
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUE NIGHT/...STRONG LOW PRES SYS OVR THE            
WRN OH VLY WITH ATTENDANT CDFNT XTNDG SW THRU KY/TN/AL WHILE WMFNT              
CURLS ARND SRN TIP OF APPALACHIANS AND BACK NEWD ACRS CENTRAL                   
GA/SC/NC. CWFA WILL REMAIN WITHIN THIS WARM SECTOR THRU TNGT INTO               
TMRW WHICH WILL KEEP DEWPTS IN THE 60S TNGT INTO TMRW...ALONG WITH              
PLENTY OF MOISTURE AND MODEST INSTABILITY. KCLX RADAR ALREADY                   
SHOWING SCATTERED SHWRS OVR THE SC PORTION OF THE CWFA WHILE A LARGE            
AREA OF RAIN MOVES INTO SE GA. CONTINUED ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL SHIFT             
TO MORE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY TNGT INTO TMRW AS SEVERAL SHTWVS RIDE               
ARND THE BASE OF THE UPR LVL TROF SHOVING THE SFC LOW AND FRONTS                
EWD. THUS...HAVE UPPED POPS TO CATEGORICAL LATE TNGT INTO TMRW AS               
MUCH...IF NOT ALL...OF THE CWFA WILL SEE RAIN. HAVE ALSO INCLUDED               
CHC TSTMS FOR THE OVRNGT PERIOD.                                                
TUE PRESENTS AN ADDITIONAL CHALLENGE...SEVERE WX. SPC HAS MUCH OF               
THE AREA OUTLOOKED FOR SLGT RISK IN SWODY2 AS LLJ BECOMES BETTER                
POSITIONED OVR THE CWFA WHICH MAY COMBINE WITH THE INCRD INSTABILITY            
AND MOISTURE ALREADY IN PLACE ALONG WITH PLENTY OF LIFT. THINKING IS            
THAT PRECIP WILL BE ONGOING FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY A               
BREAK TMRW MRNG. IF THIS BREAK IN THE PRECIP ALSO ALLOWS FOR BREAKS             
IN THE CLOUD COVER AFTER SUNRISE...THIS WILL ALLOW FOR FURTHER                  
DESTABILIZATION AND POSSIBLY ORGANIZED SEVERE WX IN THE FORM OF A               
SQUALL LINE WHICH MAY PRODUCE DAMAGING WINDS. WILL STILL MAINTAIN               
CATEGORICAL POPS THRU THE FIRST HALF OF TUE...THEN GRADUALLY TREND              
DOWN POPS FROM W TO E AS THE LINE MOVES THRU.                                   
CONDS SHOULD IMPROVE TUE NIGHT AHEAD OF THE FNT AS SHOWER ACTIVITY              
GRADUALLY WANES. WILL STILL NEED TO CARRY POPS...BUT MORE OF THE CHC            
VARIETY.                                                                        
TEMPS WILL REMAIN WARM/HUMID THRU TUE NIGHT AS THE AREA REMAINS WARM            
SECTORED. MIN TEMPS WILL ONLY FALL TO THE MID 60S TNGT FOLLOWED BY A            
SMALL DIURNAL TUE WITH MAXES ARND 70. SOME AREAS MAY BECOME RAIN                
COOLED WHICH MAY WREAK HAVOC ON THE TEMP FCST. MIN TEMPS TUE NIGHT              
WILL BE MUCH COOLER...IN THE MID 40S.                                           
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...AFTER THE FROPA EARLY                    
WED...COOLER AND DRIER WX EXPECTED FOR THE LAST HALF OF THE WEEK AS             
HIGH PRES BUILDS IN. AS THE HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE AND AN AREA OF LOW              
PRES MOVES OUT OF THE PLAINS TOWARD THE MID ATLC STATES...WARMER SLY            
FLOW WILL DEVELOP OVER THE AREA WITH SHOWERS POSSIBLE INTO EARLY                
NEXT WEEK. MUST ADD THAT THERE IS MUCH UNCERTAINTY TOWARD THE END OF            
THE FCST PERIOD DEPENDING ON WHETHER THE COLD FRONT PART OF THE                 
AFOREMENTIONED LOW PRES SYSTEM REMAINS TO THE N...AS PER THE                    
GFS...OR MOVES SWD THROUGH THE AREA...AS PER HPC AND THE ECMWF. FOR             
NOW WILL GO MORE WITH THE LATTER SOLN WHICH BRINGS THE FRONT THRU               
SUN NIGHT...HOWEVER WILL KEEP SLGT CHC POPS INTO MON AS WELL.                   
MARINE...SE-S FLOW WITHIN MODEST PRES GRAD WILL LEAD TO CONTINUAL               
INCRS IN SEAS THRU TONIGHT. FAVORABLE FETCH WILL MAKE FOR SEAS                  
TOPPING 6 FT IN ALL WATERS BY THIS EVE SO WILL ADJUST TIMING TO                 
START SCA FOR ALL WATERS WITH THIS CWF ISSUANCE. PRES GRAD CREATING             
WINDS ARND 15 KT WILL PERSIST AHEAD OF THE CDFNT TUE INTO TUE NGT.              
WINDS DO NOT APPEAR TO TOP 20 KT THRU TUE NGT SO SCA WILL BE MAINLY             
FOR SEAS BUT WILL USE GENERIC SCA HEADLINE TO LEAVE OPEN THE OPTION             
FOR LATER SHIFTS.                                                               
LACK OF STRONG CAA BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WILL LEAD TO IMPROVING                 
MARINE CONDITIONS WED. SEAS MAY EVEN DROP BELOW 6 FT /SCA CRITERIA/             
ACROSS THE OUTER GA WATERS FOR A TIME WED INTO THU BUT INCREASING               
SWELL FROM A LOW PRES SYSTEM OUT IN THE ATLC WILL PUSH SEAS BACK                
INTO SCA RANGE THU AFTN. THUS...WILL LEAVE SCA UP FOR AMZ374 THRU               
LATE FRI NIGHT. WINDS TO PICK UP A BIT THU NIGHT/FRI AS ANOTHER SHOT            
OF COOL AIR MOVES INTO THE AREA BEHIND A CLIPPER SYSTEM TO THE N BUT            
NO HEADLINES XPCTD ATTM. BENIGN CONDITIONS RETURN SAT WITH HIGH PRES            
MOVING OVER THE AREA.                                                           
&&                                                                              
.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
GA...NONE.                                                                      
SC...NONE.                                                                      
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY AMZ350-352-354-374.                               
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
ST                                                                              
</PRE></TT></td>   sc                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX                                         
1000 AM CST MON NOV 28 2005                                                     
.DISCUSSION...WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGES AND RUC 500MB HEIGHT                 
ANALYSIS INDICATED A TROUGH ACROSS THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES WITH A             
CLOSED LOW ACROSS SOUTHWEST IOWA INTO SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA AND                    
NORTHEAST KANSAS THIS MORNING. MSAS SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATED LOW              
PRESSURE OVER IOWA WITH A COLD FRONT EXTENDING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE             
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY INTO THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO. HIGH                  
PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN U.S. IS BUILDING INTO TEXAS IN THE WAKE O             
THE FRONT. SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATED CLEAR SKIES ACROSS DEEP SOUTH             
TX. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO THE STATE TODAY                   
PROVIDING NORTH WINDS ACROSS THE CWA. CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS FINE SO            
NO CHANGES TO GRIDS/ZONES EXPECTED.                                             
&&                                                                              
.MARINE...A COLD FRONT SWEPT ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS OF DEEP SOUTH            
TEXAS THIS MORNING AND SEAS ARE BEING CHURNED BY NORTH WINDS.                   
BUOY020 REPORTED NORTH WINDS AT 15 TO 20 KTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS AND              
SEAS ARE NEAR 10 FEET. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL REMAIN POSTED                
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE COASTAL WATERS AND LAGUNA MADRE AS               
NORTH WINDS REMAIN GUSTY ALONG THE COAST. WINDS AND SEAS WILL                   
GRADUALLY DECREASE MONDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE                
AREA.                                                                           
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...BRO RADAR INDICATES A STRONG NORTH FLOW JUST OFF THE                
DECK THIS MORNING...AND COMPUTER MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE NORTHERLY              
LOW LEVEL JET WILL NOT SLACKEN UNTIL TONIGHT. LLWS HAS BEEN INCLUDED            
IN ALL DEEP SOUTH TEXAS TAFS FOR TODAY...ALTHOUGH SURFACE WINDS MAY             
PICK UP ENOUGH WITH DAYTIME MIXING TO NEGATE THE SIGNIFICANT WIND               
SHEAR EFFECTS. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE NEXT 24                  
HOURS.                                                                          
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION.../ISSUED 434 AM CST MON NOV 28 2005/                          
THE SURFACE FRONT HAS CLEAR THROUGH THE BRO AREA EARLY THIS MORNING             
AND IS PUSHING OFFSHORE AT THE MOMENT. IN THE WAKE OF THIS                      
FRONT...COOLER AND DRIER AIR IS SPILLING ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS TODAY               
WHICH SHOULD SIGNIFICANTLY REDUCE HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE SHORT                
TERM. THIS NORTHERLY SURFACE FLOW WILL PERSIST INTO                             
TUESDAY...AFTERWARDS THE SURFACE FLOW WILL SHIFT AROUND BACK TO THE             
SOUTHEAST ON WEDNESDAY RE-ESTABLISHING WARM AIR ADVECTION BACK OVER             
THE BRO CWA WARMING UP TEMPERATURES ONCE AGAIN. IN THE SHORT                    
TERM...MET AND MAV TEMPERATURES ARE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT WITH THE            
MAV GUIDANCE SHOWING A STRONGER WARMUP ON WEDNESDAY. THE 500                    
MILLIBAR LOW NOW OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. WILL LIFT OUT TO THE                     
NORTHEAST ON TUESDAY ALLOWING THE FLOW TO BECOME MORE ZONAL OVER THE            
SOUTHERN STATES THROUGH FRIDAY. AFTER FRIDAY...A MAJOR 500 MILLIBAR             
TROUGH DIGS OUT OVER THE ROCKIES WHICH RESULTS IN A MAJOR SURFACE               
SYSTEM DEVELOPING OVER CENTRAL AND NORTHERN TEXAS THIS UPCOMING                 
WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE OVERALL ZONAL PATTERN WILL                
RESULT IN VERY LIMITED RAIN CHANCES IN THE LONGER TERM. HOWEVER...AN            
ONSHORE LOW LEVEL FLOW THAT DEVELOPS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WILL                   
INCREASE MOISTURE LEVELS AND ACCORDINGLY WILL INCLUDE A MENTION OF              
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS LATER THIS WEEK. THE ZONAL FLOW WILL LIMIT ANY               
COLD AIR ADVECTION AND WILL KEEP THE COLDEST AIR LOCKED UP NEAR THE             
U.S./CANADIAN BORDER REGION. SO FOR NOW WILL MAINTAIN TEMPERATURES              
ABOVE CLIMO IN THE LONGER TERM.                                                 
&&                                                                              
.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...SCA FOR GMZ130-150-155-170-175.              
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON OUR INTERNET WEB PAGE AT:                     
HTTP://WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/BRO                                                     
61/69/ABBOTT                                                                    
</PRE></TT></td>   tx                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI                                  
253 PM CST MON NOV 28 2005                                                      
.DISCUSSION...FORECAST FOCUS ON FALLING TEMPS AND PCPN CHCS/TYPE                
WITH DEPARTING STORM.                                                           
IN THE SHORT TERM...STEADY PCPN MOVED EAST AROUND MID MORNING AS                
EXPECTED WITH THE BEST QG FORCING AND FRONTOGENISIS SHIFTING EAST               
WITH THE LOW LVL JET AND WARM CONVEYOR BELT OVER TO LOWER MI.                   
SUBSIDENT WARMING AND SOME SUNSHINE WITH DRY SLOT OVER CWA BOOSTED              
TEMPS INTO THE MID AND UPPER 50S OVER THE NOON HOUR...WITH                      
DOWNWARD MOMENTUM TRANSFER OF THE 35 TO 50 KT UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW               
MIXED DOWN FROM 800 MB RESULTING IN GUSTY SOUTH WINDS OF 15 TO 30               
MPH WITH GUSTS TO 35 MPH.                                                       
EXPECT THE BREAK IN THE CLOUDS AND PCPN OVER SRN WI TO BE BRIEF                 
AS THE NEARLY STACKED SYSTEM OVER CNTRL/NRN IA SLOWLY FILLS AND                 
OPENS UP AS IT LIFTS NE THRU WRN TO N CNTRL WI OVERNIGHT...AND                  
REACHES EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR BY LATE TUE AFTERNOON.                            
ONLY LOOKING FOR WIDELY SCT SHRA AS SHOWN ON AREA WSR 88-D                      
RADARS...WITH TEMP PROFILES ON BUFKIT SNDGS AND COBB TECHNIQUE                  
SHOWING THE SHOWERS MIXING WITH AND THEN CHANGING OVER TO SNOW                  
SHOWERS OR FLURRIES MAINLY AROUND/AFTER MIDNIGHT IN MSN...AND                   
AROUND/AFTER 3 AM IN MKE...AS VORT MAX CURRENTLY ANALYZED BY THE                
RUC OVER NE KS WILL ROTATE UP THRU SRN WI LATE TNT INTO TUE                     
MORNING.                                                                        
THOUGH SOME COOLER AIR WILL BE ADVECTING OVER WI FROM THE WSW                   
UNDER THE LOW CENTER TONIGHT...SFC TEMPS WONT REALLY DROP UNTIL W TO            
NW WINDS KICK IN TUE AFTERNOON AS SFC AND MID LVL TROFS PUSH EAST               
OF WI BY EARLY TUE EVENING. MODEL MOS GUIDANCE HANDLED THE EARLY                
HIGH TEMPS THEN STEADY TO SLOWLY FALLING AFTERNOON TEMPS TREND WELL.            
WENT WITH A MAV/MET MOS BLEND.                                                  
SHORT WAVE RIDGING GIVES US A QUIET AND COOL WEDNESDAY...WITH                   
NEXT JET MAXIMA IN FAST ZONAL UPPER FLOW BRINGING A SHORT WAVE                  
TROF THRU RGN WED NIGHT AND THURSDAY. DECENT QG FORCING AND                     
ISENTROPIC LIFT ACROSS SRN WI BETWEEN 06Z AND 12Z...WITH AN                     
AVERAGE OF 1.5 TO 2 G/KG MIXING RATIOS...INDICATE 1 TO 2 INCHES                 
POSSIBLE WITH THIS QUICK MOVER. HAVE UPPED POPS TO LIKELY CATEGORY.             
IN THE LONG TERM...WI MAINLY ON COOL SIDE OF ZONAL FLOW WITH TEMPS              
EXPECTED TO BE BELOW NORMAL INTO NEXT WEEK. LATEST GFS HAS BACKED               
OFF ON EARLIER PANHANDLE-TYPE STORM POSSIBLITY FOR SUNDAY/MONDAY                
AND IS BRINGING A MUCH WEAKER SHRT WAVE TROF ACROSS WRN GREAT                   
LAKES SUNDAY/ SUNDAY NIGHT IN MORE OF AN UN-PHASED SPLIT-FLOW                   
PATTERN...WITH A STRONGER SHRT WV DIGGING INTO WRN TX BY 00Z TUE.               
&&                                                                              
.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
NONE.                                                                           
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
09/09                                                                           
</PRE></TT></td>   wi