FXUS04 KWBC 051727
QPFPFD
 
QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
125 PM EDT TUE OCT 05 2004
 
PRELIM DAY 1 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID OCT 06/0000 UTC THRU OCT 07/0000 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR
 

...PRELIM DAY 1...

...SYNOPSIS...
MDLS ARE SHOWG SOME PROGRESSION OF THE MID/UPR LVL PTRN ACRS
NOAM THIS PD...WHILE CONTG THE SRN STREAM THAT UNDERCUTS THE
WRN U.S. RDG AND MERGES WITH THE ERN U.S. TROF. A CDFNT WL HANG
BACK NR THE GULF CST THRU SRN TX INTO THE ROCKIES. A PAIR OF PAC
CDFNTS WL MOV THRU THE PAC NW BRINGING ONSHORE FLOW AND PCPN
TO THE REGION THIS PD. OVERALL...USED GFS MASS FIELDS TO
CONSTRUCT QPF AND MADE CHANGES AS NEEDED. THIS SOLN IS CLOSE
TO CONTINUITY.

...CNTRL/SRN ROCKIES AND SRN/CNTRL HI PLAINS AND PLAINS...
A H2 CLOSED CYC...IN THE WIND FIELD IF NOT THE HEIGHT PATTERN...
MOVES THRU THE ROCKIES THIS PD LEADING TO SIG DIVERGENCE ACRS
THE SRN PLAINS THIS PD. INFLOW FROM THE GULF OF MEX SHIFTS FROM
THE SRN HIGH PLAINS/MTS OF WEST TEXAS NNEWD INTO THE CNTRL
PLAINS. INITIALLY...PCPN WL CONT IN THE SRN HIGH PLAINS AND DVLP
IN
WRN TX DUE TO THE HEATING OF THE DAY. ACTIVITY ACRS NERN NM WL
PROPAGATE GENERALLY EWD W/THE AREA OF BEST DIVERGENCE ALOFT
WHILE THE TSRA ACRS WRN TX SINKS SEWD PER CORFIDI VECTORS. BY
MID PD...THE CLOSED CYC MOVES CLOSER TO THE HIGH PLAINS AND LOW
LEVEL UPSLOPE CONDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACRS CO. WENT
WETTER THAN THE MDLS IN CO WHERE A COMMA HEAD/UPSLOPE ARE
EXPECTED TO DVLP. ALSO...DUE TO THE GULF INFLOW AND DIFFLUENCE
ALOFT...KEPT W/THE PREV SHIFTS IDEA OF HVY RAINS ACRS WRN TX
EXPECTED TO DVLP LATER TDA. ALG THE LOWER TX COAST/PADRE
ISLAND...A TROP DISTURBANCE ACRS THE SRN GULF OF MEX EDGES NWD
BRINGING PWS AOA 2 INCHES AND 20 KTS OF INFLOW UP COAST LATE IN
THE PD. THE MANUAL QPF IS SLOWED DOWN HERE FROM THE PREV
SHIFT...CLOSE TO THE GFS.

...PAC NW...
A PAIR OF FRONTAL BNDRYS FROM THE ERN PAC BRING ONSHORE FLOW
THIS PD...STRONGEST UP IN WRN WA/BC EARLY IN THE PD BEFORE
WEAKENING AND SHIFTING DOWN THE OR COAST AS WELL AS EWD INTO
THE NRN CONTDVD. MDLS SHOW PWS AOA 1.25 INCHES MOVG INTO THE
CSTL AREAS OF WA/OR TNGT. A BROAD AREA OF LGT/MOD PCPN IS
EXPECTED. ISOLD HVY AMTS ARE PSBL IN THE OLYMPICS WHERE
UPSLOPE WL BE MAXIMIZED AND MORE PERSISTENT. IN THIS AREA...
CONTINUITY WAS FOLLOWED VERY CLOSELY.

...FL...
SEA BREEZE CVRG WL SUPPORT ANOTHER AFTN OF SCT CNVTN WITH
ISOLD MOD/HVY RNS OVR CNTRL FL THIS AFTN AND AGAIN WED PM.

ROTH

GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT WWW.HPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV
 
24HR QP VT 07/00Z
 0.01 495666 495660 492655 490654 488657 476663 471667 470671 
      468675 463688 456699 453713 451720 451725 454728 459725 
      465726 469723 473716 482704 487699 491691 496677 495666 
 0.01 521270 523260 523249 522244 523232 526226 529222 532218 
      534215 535211 537206 539200 538191 536183 531170 525164 
      522158 518152 507146 497142 490135 483127 480126 476127 
      472130 470137 470141 468143 464144 461148 461152 461155 
      464161 464167 465172 468174 476178 482187 484192 484196 
      483196 478199 472199 465205 460203 456207 452210 447212 
      442213 438215 433218 429220 425220 423221 424226 426231 
      425231 419232 415235 412240 412244 417247 423249 425253 
      429256 434258 438259 449257 458255 461254 468255 474256 
      480260 485264 488269 492280 494284 497287 500291 505293 
      512289 515284 516281 
 0.01 452080 451076 450074 449072 447071 444069 442068 441068 
      440068 439069 436070 434072 436075 439075 441075 442076 
      444079 447080 450081 452080 
 0.01 447105 446101 443096 438096 435097 432096 431096 430100 
      428104 423106 423108 429109 435110 441110 445109 447105 
 0.01 433016 433010 431003 428992 425983 420972 416965 410958 
      404955 397953 387954 379953 369954 365955 361953 354951 
      347946 337936 326927 316915 315898 314892 312886 310882 
      307882 301887 295893 286905 268927 258938 253943 247948 
      242953 238960 236973 236978 237982 241988 246992 254995 
      261996 265998 267000 272016 274024 277032 280039 285046 
      288054 288058 286060 284067 285072 288073 305070 312067 
      322068 327081 333084 338085 348087 353088 358086 363080 
      367082 370086 374090 377094 375099 378101 381098 386092 
      392086 400083 408083 413081 417077 418072 418065 419054 
      419047 421041 424036 430026 433016 
 0.01 420115 417114 412114 410110 410106 411102 409099 406098 
      405102 403107 400107 398109 394111 392113 394115 400117 
      403118 408119 414120 418119 420115 
 0.01 294810 294805 293800 289792 285787 278788 264790 258792 
      254796 248806 244818 243823 246824 252824 257822 260825 
      270830 277833 281831 283828 288823 292818 294810 
 0.25 531204 531196 529189 524178 521174 517172 513168 508165 
      505165 501167 496166 490163 484161 481162 480164 481170 
      486181 489184 493185 497185 500188 508196 516203 524209 
      527210 529208 531204 
 0.25 515276 518267 519255 516243 511229 505217 498207 489201 
      471208 467210 461211 457214 452216 443219 441221 441226 
      443232 439239 441242 443245 448246 459245 465243 468244 
      479249 484253 487257 500280 505283 510283 515276 
 0.25 453231 455227 453226 450229 448229 450230 453231 453231 
 0.25 414018 415013 414007 409003 404000 398994 389985 386979 
      384972 379967 372965 360962 354960 346958 332961 326960 
      320957 315954 311955 309959 308958 306954 305950 304943 
      302937 299935 295936 289940 285944 278948 256958 249962 
      246965 243971 242976 246981 251985 254987 260989 271993 
      279992 284989 298983 305984 309986 313990 316996 314001 
      307004 295009 289012 286015 285020 285024 286030 287033 
      293044 296049 301055 311049 343047 356044 363042 372042 
      378043 381050 385056 390061 393064 396066 403067 407067 
      410066 411062 410057 408053 408046 412036 414018 
 0.50 516267 517260 516255 514244 512238 510234 505225 501216 
      499213 494209 489207 484207 477209 473211 470214 466217 
      464221 478220 489226 493237 497246 495248 493246 491244 
      488245 489250 491253 500271 505274 508273 515269 516267 
 0.50 523197 522197 522192 520189 519186 518185 515184 512185 
      515186 517189 518191 520193 522197 523197 
 0.50 482244 481242 480239 479235 478234 476232 474233 473234 
      472237 472238 475241 476242 478244 480244 482244 
 0.50 461237 458234 455234 453235 454239 457239 461237 
 0.50 454239 452237 449236 447237 448240 451240 454239 
 0.50 406026 405015 405011 402006 392998 371978 364973 359969 
      353967 344968 337971 333973 330971 324966 318965 317969 
      317974 320982 322987 323993 321000 316006 311010 304013 
      299014 294015 290018 288021 288026 289031 293037 296043 
      301047 307046 315043 331041 340041 349039 356037 364033 
      377026 382025 387027 393031 398037 402036 404034 406026 
 0.50 293961 293954 291949 285952 280953 272955 262959 254963 
      248968 246972 245974 246977 254982 261984 270985 278982 
      286976 290969 293961 
 1.00 511256 510248 508241 506236 503233 500228 497222 496219 
      494221 495230 496236 499241 501245 504250 506254 508258 
      511256 
 1.00 371007 370000 368990 366986 363984 357982 351981 346986 
      343990 338997 336004 339007 342008 350009 356009 365009 
      371007 
 1.00 359030 360026 357025 354024 351024 348024 346026 345027 
      345031 346032 349034 352033 354032 357031 359030 
 1.00 317036 315030 312028 312023 306022 301023 295022 292024 
      293031 293034 296038 299041 304042 310040 313039 317036 
 1.00 281966 279962 273962 268963 262964 257966 255968 252970 
      251974 252976 256977 261978 267976 272974 276973 279969 
      281966 
 1.50 312036 311033 310032 307030 305030 304029 301028 298028 
      296029 295030 295034 296035 297037 299038 301039 304039 
      307038 310037 312036 
 2.00 302033 301033 298033 299034 301034 302033  
 
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