AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION                          
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ                                             
1233 PM MST THU AUG 16 2007                                                     
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE DRIFTING WESTWARD...THROUGH             
SOUTHWEST ARIZONA TONIGHT. AREAS OF DENSE BLOWING DUST ARE POSSIBLE             
WITH SOME OF THESE STORMS. SUFFICIENT MOISTURE WILL SUPPORT A SLIGHT            
CHANCE FOR LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING STORMS OVER SOUTH CENTRAL                 
ARIZONA FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL                    
ESTABLISH RESIDENCE OVER SOUTHERN ARIZONA BY SUNDAY...THEN REMAIN               
CENTERED OVER OR JUST SOUTH OF OUR AREA THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT              
WEEK. EXPECT DRIER AIR TO OVERSPREAD THE REGION...ALONG WITH VERY               
WARM TO HOT DAYTIME HIGHS...MONDAY AND TUESDAY. A WEATHER                       
DISTURBANCE FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC WILL BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR             
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA BY NEXT                      
THURSDAY.                                                                       
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM...                                                                  
TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...                                                       
SEVERE TSTM WATCH FOR MARICOPA AND PINAL COUNTIES CANCELLED AT                  
730 PM MST. BUT...WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUED TO FORM              
AND PROPAGATE WESTWARD THIS EVENING...MAINLY THROUGH REMOTE AREAS OF            
ZONE 21 AND 26. LATEST YUMA RADAR INDICATED AT LEAST ONE STRONG                 
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY  WELL SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 8...CLOSER TO THE MEX                
BRDR BETWEEN 03Z AND 04Z. PLENTIFUL MOISTURE...WITH DEW POINTS 60 TO            
65...ALONG WITH AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY AND GOOD STEERING                           
FLOWS...SUPPORT BETTER TSTM CHANCES AND POSSIBLE DUST STORM FOR ZONE            
25 LATER THIS EVENING. RUC EVEN DRIVES THE WEAK INVERTED TROUGH INTO            
RIVERSIDE COUNTY BY AROUND 12Z. ACROSS THE REST OF THE CWA...THE                
EARLIER CONVECTION IN ZONES 24 AND 28 WAS ABOUT OVER. ALTHOUGH MANY             
AREAS DID NOT RECEIVE ANY PRECIP...IT WAS THE WIND...OVER 40 MPH IN             
MANY LOCATIONS THAT BROUGHT THE VISIBILITY WAY DOWN. 03Z KPSR                   
SOUNDING STILL HAD SOME POTENTIAL FOR NIGHTTIME SHOWERS OR                      
TSTMS...AND ZONE UPDATES WERE ISSUED BY 9 PM.                                   
STEERING FLOW BECOMES SOUTHERLY BY FRIDAY...THEN SOUTHWESTERLY BY               
SATURDAY...AS STRONG UPPER LOW AND ASSOCIATED TROUGH MOVE INTO THE              
CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST PACIFIC COAST REGION. LESS FAVORABLE STEERING             
FLOW...NO APPARENT UPPER LEVEL TRIGGER...AND LESS INSTABILITY                   
SUGGESTS THAT ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE FOR STORMS IS WARRANTED FOR SOUTH              
CENTRAL AZ FRIDAY AND SATURDAY EVENINGS. DRYING BECOMES MORE                    
NOTICEABLE BY SUNDAY AS STRONG UPPER HIGH BECOMES CENTERED OVER                 
SOUTHEAST ARIZONA...AND DAYTIME HIGHS WILL BEGIN TO CREEP EVEN                  
HIGHER BY THAT TIME.                                                            
NOTE TO USERS...KIWA 88D RADAR STILL DOWN DUE TO EQUIPMENT FAILURE.             
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM...                                                                   
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...                                                
LOOKS RATHER DRY FOR OUR CWA SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT AS              
STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT LIES ACROSS SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA             
AND SOUTHERN ARIZONA. MAX TEMPS WILL LIKELY REACH OR EXCEED HEAT                
ADVISORY THRESHOLD FOR SOUTH-CENTRAL AZ...AND MAYBE FAR SOUTHEAST               
CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST AZ...MONDAY AND TUESDAY...WITH HOTTEST MAX             
TEMPS LIKELY TUESDAY AS NOTICEABLY DRIER AIR OVERSPREADS THE REGION.            
BY LATE WEDNESDAY OR THURSDAY...A WEATHER DISTURBANCE FROM THE                  
EASTERN PACIFIC WILL APPROACH THE AREA. THIS SYSTEM WILL LIKELY TAP             
INTO ENOUGH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE TO BRING AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR            
STORMS TO SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA. EXPECT SOME LOWERING OF MAX TEMPS              
WEDNESDAY...WITH TEMPS LOWERING TO NEAR CLIMO LEVELS BY                         
THURSDAY.                                                                       
.AVIATION...                                                                    
AUGUST 17 0733 UTC (AUGUST 17 0033 MST)                                         
HAVE UPDATED ALL TAFS TO REFLECT CURRENT TRENDS. RADAR /FYI KIWA IS             
BACK UP/ AND SATELLITE DATA SHOW SHARP DECREASE IN CONVECTION ACROSS            
THE REGION. OUTFLOW BOUNDARY PUSHED TO THE COLORADO RIVER BUT                   
APPEARS TO HAVE DECOUPLED FROM THE SURFACE...MEANING STRONG SURFACE             
WINDS ARE NOT MATERIALIZING. CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE                   
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.                                                    
FOR THIS AFTERNOON...BROAD TROUGH WILL PUSH NORTH OUT OF MEXICO IN              
TO THE SW STATES. MUCH OF TODAY/S CONVECTION WILL OCCUR ALONG AND               
NORTH OF THIS FEATURE. MODELS PLACE THE TROUGH ALONG THE MOGOLLON               
RIM BY 18Z...WITH WARMER/DRIER AIR FILTERING IN BEHIND IT /ACROSS               
SRN AZ AND SE CA/. THEREFORE...NOT EXPECTING A LOT OF TSTM ACTIVITY             
AT ANY OF THE TAF SITES TODAY /SHOULD BE NORTH OF KPHX AND                      
SURROUNDING AIRFIELDS/. KBLH WOULD BE THE MOST LIKELY SITE TO SEE               
ANY TSTMS. WILL FURTHER ANALYZE DATA THIS MORNING TO HAMMER OUT THE             
FINER DETAILS.                                                                  
SEE TAFS PHXTAFPHX...PHXTAFIWA...PHXTAFYUM...LAXTAFBLH AND LAXTAFIPL            
FOR MORE DETAILED INFORMATION.                                                  
AVIATION DISCUSSION IS NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.                            
&&                                                                              
.FIRE WEATHER...                                                                
AUGUST 16 2250 UTC (AUGUST 16 1550 MST)                                         
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WITH HOT AND VERY DRY AIR IS EXPECTED TO             
BE OVER OUR AREA DURING THIS PERIOD. THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM IS                
EXPECTED TO BECOME CENTERED OVER THE PACIFIC WEST OF CALIFORNIA                 
NEAR 135 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE TUESDAY AND WITH VERY DRY FLOW OF               
AIR FROM THE WEST OVER OUR AREA.                                                
&&                                                                              
.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
AZ...NONE.                                                                      
CA...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX IS ON THE INTERNET AT                          
WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX                                                             
SHORT TERM...SIPPLE                                                             
LONG TERM...DG                                                                  
AVIATION...INIGUEZ                                                              
FIRE WX...ELLIS                                                                 
</pre> az                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO                                      
336 AM MDT FRI AUG 17 2007                                                      
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...                                   
MONSOON FLOW BEING INFLUENCED BY SHORTWAVE TROUGHS/EASTERLY WAVES               
FROM THE SOUTHEAST. ONE OVER AZ IS FEEDING THE SOUTHWEST PORTION OF             
THE MONSOON PLUME...WHILE ANOTHER WAVE OVER NEW MEXICO IS ROTATING              
MOISTURE AND OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES INTO SW CO. OTHER SMALL TROUGHS TO              
NOTE INCLUDE ONE RESOLVED BY RUC OVER CENTRAL CO AND SECOND OVER                
NORTHER UT. ALL THIS MEANS THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE SHOULD EVEN OUT A              
BIT TODAY. HAVE INCREASED POPS OVER THE NORTH TO VALUES SIMILAR TO              
THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE CWA.                                                
MODELS NOT REALLY SHOWING MUCH CHANGE FOR SATURDAY. A MODERATE                  
MONSOON FLOW SHOULD CONTINUE WITH SHORTWAVE TROUGH LOCATION                     
DETERMINING ANY THUNDERSTORM FOCUS. PERSISTENCE TEMPERATURE CONTINUE            
TO APPEAR BEST WAY TO GO AS LITTLE IN THE WAY OF WARM OR COLD                   
TEMPERATURE ADVECTION EXPECTED NEXT 2 DAYS.                                     
.LONG TERM (SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...                                         
PATTERN CHANGE WILL BE TAKING PLACE DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS               
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE RETREATS DUE TO STRENGTHENING WESTERLIES AND              
PACIFIC NORTHWEST SHORTWAVE ENERGY.  BY SUNDAY WE ALREADY SEE A SHARP           
DECREASE IN ACTIVITY AS THE MOISTURE PLUM GETS CUT OFF SOUTH OF                 
THE AREA. BY MONDAY WE SHOULD SEE ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF DIURNAL               
CONVECTION OVER THE MOUNTAINS WITH LITTLE CHANGE FROM DAY TO DAY                
THEREAFTER. HIGH TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO RUN A FEW DEGREES ABOVE                 
NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH LOWS COOLING SLIGHTLY FOR NEAR                 
NORMAL READINGS IN THE DRIER AIR.                                               
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE            
THIS MORNING OVER NORTHWEST COLORADO AND NORTHEAST UTAH. SCATTERED TO           
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL RE-DEVELOP FRIDAY AFTERNOON             
AND EVENING OVER THE MOUNTAINS...WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS AND                      
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE VALLEYS. LOCAL MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED. GUSTY             
OUTFLOW WINDS AND SMALL HAIL WILL ALSO ACCOMPANY SOME OF THE                    
THUNDERSTORMS.                                                                  
&&                                                                              
.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
.CO...NONE.                                                                     
.UT...NONE.                                                                     
$$                                                                              
SHORT TERM...CJC                                                                
LONG TERM...JDC/EH                                                              
AVIATION...CJC                                                                  
</pre> co                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL                                        
955 AM EDT FRI AUG 17 2007                                                      
...ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON...                  
.SHORT TERM...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO FCST. BEST CHANCES FOR TSTMS            
ARE OVER THE NW 1/2 OF THE AREA...WHERE A COMBINATION OF                        
INSTABILITY... JET DYNAMICS...AND LOW-LEVEL FORCING FROM SEABREEZES             
AND SFC FRONT WILL EXIST. TUTT LOW OVER THE N BAHAMAS SHOULD                    
CONTINUE TO SUPPRESS CONVECTION OVER SE ZONES DUE TO SUBSIDENCE AND             
DRIER AIR. 12Z RUC APPEARS TO HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THE CURRENT                 
CONDITIONS AND EXPECTED POP ORIENTATION...AND THIS MATCHES WELL WITH            
ONGOING FCST.                                                                   
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...MAY NEED TO BOOST TSTM COVERAGE IN NEXT TAF SET...                  
PARTICULARLY IN SE GA. OTHERWISE...GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS AT TAF              
SITES.                                                                          
&&                                                                              
.MARINE...LITTLE CHANGE TO FCST.                                                
&&                                                                              
.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
FL...NONE.                                                                      
GA...NONE.                                                                      
AM...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
CARROLL/WALKER/BARRON                                                           
</pre> fl                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC                                          
724 AM EDT SAT AUG 18 2007                                                      
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL DROP INTO THE AREA THIS MORNING...THEN                  
DISSIPATE BY SUNDAY. ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL REGAIN CONTROL ON              
MONDAY.                                                                         
&&                                                                              
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...                                         
UPSTREAM DEWPOINT OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAS                
BEEN SLOWLY SLIDING SOUTH...NOW ACROSS NRN S CAROLINA. THE FRONT                
SHOULD ENCROACH ON OUR NRN COUNTIES SHORTLY. LAPS ANALYSIS SHOWS                
POOL OF 1000+ J/KG CAPE ALONG COASTAL SC ATTM. AS WINDS VEER                    
AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY THIS MORNING...ENOUGH LLVL CONVERGENCE ALONG              
THE COAST IS POSSIBLE TO SQUEEZE OUT A FEW SHOWERS OR ISOLATED                  
STORMS. AFTER DAYBREAK...INCREASING UPPER DIVERGENCE ON NE SIDE OF              
A TUTT LOW CROSSING FL...WITH STEEPENING LLVL LAPSE RATES AND PRE-              
FRONTAL MOISTURE POOLING...SHOULD ALLOW FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS AND                
STORMS TO DEVELOP. BEST CHANCES FOR THE 1ST HALF OF THE DAY WILL                
BE ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS CLOSEST TO THE FRONT. RELATIVELY WEAK                  
STEERING FLOW SHOULD ALLOW THE SEABREEZE TO FORM THIS AFTERNOON                 
AND PUSH INLAND. BY THE MIDDLE OF THIS AFTERNOON...THE FRONT WILL               
LIKELY BE QUITE DIFFUSE WHILE THE SEABREEZE TAKES OVER AS THE                   
PRIMARY FORCING MECHANISM. STEEPENING LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WITH                
AN INLAND PENETRATING SEABREEZE WILL BE THE BEST FORCING FOR                    
CONVECTION IN SE GA...HOWEVER COVERAGE SHOULD BE PRETTY LIMITED                 
GIVEN A 1.5-2.0 DEGREE CAP PROGGED BY THE NAM12.                                
BOUNDARY LAYER WILL STAY PRETTY WELL MIXED ACROSS INLAND AREAS                  
TODAY DUE TO 20-30 KTS OF FLOW AT 850 MB...THUS DEWPOINTS WILL                  
STRUGGLE TO STAY IN THE LOWER 70S DURING THE AFTERNOON. DESPITE                 
HIGH TEMPS FORECAST IN THE UPPER 90S FAR INLAND...PLUMMETING                    
DEWPOINTS SHOULD PRECLUDE ANY HEAT ADVISORY WORRIES.                            
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...                         
BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY STRENGTHEN DURING THE SHORT                
TERM WITH A PREVAILING ONSHORE FLOW ACROSS THE REGION. NO LARGE-                
SCALE FORCING MECHANISMS WILL BE PRESENT FOR MUCH MORE THAN                     
ISOLATED AFTERNOON CONVECTION ALONG THE SEABREEZE. NO HIGHER THAN               
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS DEEMED NECESSARY.                                            
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...                                           
ATLANTIC SURFACE HIGH WILL REMAIN CENTERED OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST              
WITH AN ONSHORE FLOW ALLOWING THE SEABREEZE TO PUSH INLAND DAILY                
THROUGH AT LEAST TUE. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED DIURNAL CONVECTION IS               
ANTICIPATED. THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE HIGH IS EXPECTED BUILD                
WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY                   
TIME FRAME. THIS MAY RESULT IN HIGHER TEMPERATURES AND A SLOWER                 
INLAND PROGRESS OF THE SEA BREEZE. WHAT REMAINS UNCLEAR IS WHETHER              
THE INCREASED SEA BREEZE CONVERGENCE WILL ENHANCE                               
COVERAGE/INTENSITY OF CONVECTION...OR WHETHER WARM/CAPPED MID                   
LEVELS WILL LIMIT COVERAGE OF AFTERNOON/EVENING THUNDERSTORMS.                  
ONGOING SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR DIURNAL THUNDERSTORMS APPEARS                    
REASONABLE FOR THIS PACKAGE.                                                    
MEANWHILE...HEAT INDICES WILL APPROACH/EXCEED ADVISORY CRITERIA                 
EACH AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD.                      
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION /10Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...                                   
THE MAIN CONCERN TODAY CONTINUES TO REVOLVE AROUND SHOWER/TSTM                  
DEVELOPMENT. LATEST RUC MODEL SHOWS CONVECTIVE INITIATION                       
POTENTIAL DURING THE EARLY AFTN HOURS ALONG THE SOUTH CAROLINA                  
COAST THEN ISOLATED STORMS WORK SSW INTO SE GEORGIA MID AFTN.                   
CHANCES STILL LOOK TOO LOW TO FORECAST IN EITHER KSAV/KCHS TAF BUT              
WILL INTRO A CB MENTION ON 12Z CYCLE. SLIGHT CHC OF MVFR IN BR                  
TOWARD DAWN AT EITHER TERM AND SUN MORNING.                                     
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...VFR CONDITIONS WILL GENERALLY PREVAIL.              
RADIATIONAL FOG OR ISOLATED TSTMS COULD BRING BRIEF/LOCALIZED                   
PERIODS OF MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS.                                            
&&                                                                              
.MARINE...                                                                      
WIND SPEEDS WERE SLOWLY DECREASING OVER THE WATERS EARLY THIS MORNING           
WHILE DIRECTIONS NEAR THE COAST GRADUALLY VEERING WITH TIME AS THE              
SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY SAGS INTO THE MARINE AREA. INITIAL FORECAST            
CONDITIONS FOR MOST OF OUR WATERS WILL HIGHLIGHT TODAY/S MAX WIND               
SPEEDS AS THE LOW LEVEL JET PULLS AWAY THEREAFTER. THE FRONTAL                  
LOCATION WILL BECOME MASKED LATER TODAY BY A PURE ONSHORE COMPONENT             
WITH THE EVOLUTION OF THE SEA BREEZE. SEAS MAINLY 2 TO 4 FT...                  
SUBSIDING TO 3 FT OR LESS.                                                      
THE ATLC SFC RIDGE WILL DOMINATE MUCH OF THE FORECAST BEYOND TODAY              
WITH ONSHORE SPEEDS MOSTLY BLO 15 KT.                                           
GROUND SWELL FROM HURCN DEAN WILL LIKELY REACH THE SE COAST LATE                
TONIGHT OR EARLY SUN. SEAS EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 3 TO 5 FT                    
EARLY NEXT WEEK...HIGHEST 20-60 NM OFF THE GEORGIA COAST.                       
RIP CURRENTS...WILL NEED TO WATCH FOR PSBL ELEVATED RISK ON SUN                 
WITH SWELLS/ONSHORE FLOW LIKELY MAINTAINING AN INCREASED RISK                   
INTO MIDWEEK.                                                                   
&&                                                                              
.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
GA...NONE.                                                                      
SC...NONE.                                                                      
MARINE...NONE.                                                                  
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</pre> ga                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID                                               
902 PM MDT FRI AUG 17 2007                                                      
.DISCUSSION...INCLUDES FIRE WEATHER. MINOR UPDATES FOR PFM AND                  
ZFP ON WINDS...WHICH WILL STILL COMBINE WITH DRY CONDITIONS LATE                
SATURDAY. A DRY AREA OVER N CENTRAL CA WILL LIFT NE TO OVER AN                  
AXIS FROM JUST NE OF MCCALL SOUTH SW THROUGH THE TRI-STATE BORDER               
FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON. A MID LEVEL SPEED MAX WITH WINDS OF 15-25               
KTS AROUND 10-12K FT MSL WILL ALSO BE OVER OUR REGION SATURDAY.                 
RUC DEPICTS MAX WINDS OVER 100 KTS OVER HARNEY COUNTY BY 12Z. RED               
FLAG FOR WINDS AND LOW RH WITH DRY FUELS SUPPORTED IN CURRENT NCEP              
RUNS. MINOR UPDATED...PFM/ZFP AND NOAA WEATHER RADIO FORECASTS                  
/162.40 - 162.55 MHZ/ WIND DIRECTIONS CHANGED FOR POPULATED AREAS               
SAT/SUN AFTERNOON AND EVENINGS. MINOR ADDITION OF EVENING SMOKE                 
ACROSS SE BAKER COUNTY FROM FAR NW MALHEUR COUNTY.                              
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...WILDFIRE SMOKE CONTINUES TO BRING WIDESPREAD IFR                    
CONDITIONS MAINLY NEAR AND EAST OF MCCALL AND NORTH OF DEADWOOD                 
RESERVOIR. LOCALLY VISIBILITY WILL BE REDUCED TO LESS THAN A HALF A             
MILE THROUGH THESE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS OVERNIGHT INTO THE EARLY MORNING            
HOURS. THE TOP OF THE SMOKE LAYER IS 15-20K FT MSL. ELSEWHERE...                
CONDITIONS ARE VFR. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE               
CENTRAL ID MOUNTAINS AND EASTERN ID THROUGH 06Z. SURFACE WINDS WILL             
BE LIGHT OVERNIGHT...INCREASING TOMORROW...WITH MODERATE TO STRONG              
SW WINDS ALOFT.                                                                 
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION...                                                             
SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...MONSOON MOISTURE REMAINS ON               
THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON...EVIDENCED BY THE              
LATEST CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IN SOUTHERN TWIN FALLS COUNTY AND NEAR            
THE CENTRAL IDAHO MOUNTAINS. WILL CONTINUE WITH ISOLATED                        
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH SATURDAY IN A SMALL AREA BORDERING THE                    
POCATELLO CWA...WHICH INCLUDES THE AFOREMENTIONED AREAS...ALONG WITH            
THE WESTERN MAGIC VALLEY. ELSEWHERE...AIRMASS REMAINS DRY AND STABLE            
WITH PW/S LESS THAN A HALF AN INCH. PACIFIC TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO             
PUSH ONSHORE...AND BY SATURDAY EVENING THE DRY SLOT THAT HAS COVERED            
MOST OF THE AREA WILL SHOVE THE MONSOONAL MOISTURE EAST. GUSTY                  
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY OVER THE             
MOUNTAINS WHERE WIND GUSTS GREATER THAN 30 MPH WILL PREVAIL. COLD               
FRONT REMAINS TO THE WEST...AND THICKNESSES STAY ABOUT THE SAME SO              
EXPECT TEMPS ON SATURDAY TO BE SIMILAR TO TODAY. ON SUNDAY...PACIFIC            
TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE REGION...WITH DIFFERENCES IN TIMING OF COLD             
FROPA. GFS IS 6-12 HOURS FASTER THAN THE NAM...RESULTING IN THE MAV             
MOS GUIDANCE BEING SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER THAN THE ETA MOS.                     
PREFERRED TO GO WITH A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE TWO AT THIS TIME.                 
MODELS DEPICT A BAND OF SHOWERS DEVELOPING AND MOVING ACROSS THE                
NORTHERN TIER ON SUNDAY...WITH THE NAM BEING A BIT MORE GENEROUS                
WITH QPF AMOUNTS AND SOUTHERN EXTENT OF PRECIP. WENT MORE IN LINE               
WITH THE DRIER GFS.                                                             
LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MODELS STILL SHOWING               
SOME TIMING AND AMPLITUDE DIFFERENCES IN THE LONG TERM. HAVE                    
CONTINUED TO TREND FORECAST MORE TOWARDS GFS AND ECMWF SOLUTIONS.               
BEST CHANCE OF PRECIP STILL LOOKS TO BE SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY IN THE              
NORTHERN ZONES AS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND PACIFIC MOISTURE...THE BULK            
OF WHICH REMAINS IN THE NORTHERN PART OF THE CWA...MOVE ACROSS THE              
REGION. FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL BY MONDAY. HEIGHTS AND THICKNESSES              
DURING THE PERIOD WILL SUPPORT MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES. ZONAL              
FLOW CONTINUES THROUGH MID WEEK. BOTH GFS/DGEX HINTING AT WEAK                  
SHORTWAVE AND PACIFIC MOISTURE TO AFFECT THE FORECAST AREA                      
THURSDAY...MAINLY ACROSS SOUTHERN ZONES. LONGWAVE RIDGE REDEVELOPS              
OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST BY FRIDAY IN RESPONSE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW            
IN GULF OF ALASKA. HAVE BEGUN A WEAK WARMING TREND BY WEEK/S END                
WITH TEMPERATURES 2 TO 3 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. HAVE HIGHER                      
CONFIDENCE IN LATEST GUIDANCE AS MODEL AGREEMENT HAS IMPROVED AND               
SOLUTIONS SEEM FAR MORE REASONABLE THAN PREVIOUS RUNS.                          
&&                                                                              
.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
ID...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 12 PM TO 9 PM MDT SATURDAY FOR IDZ400-               
     IDZ401-IDZ402-IDZ403-IDZ404-IDZ419.                                        
OR...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 12 PM MDT /11 AM PDT/ TO 9 PM MDT /8 PM              
     PDT/ SATURDAY FOR ORZ636-ORZ637.                                           
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
WEATHER.GOV/BOISE                                                               
DISCUSSION...VM                                                                 
AVIATION.....DF                                                                 
PREV SHORT TERM.....BW                                                          
PREV LONG TERM......SL/MT                                                       
</pre> id                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL                                             
121 AM CDT FRI AUG 17 2007                                                      
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
ISSUED 830 PM CDT THU AUG 16 2007                                               
SHORTWAVE AXIS IS CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS ILLINOIS AND PUSHING THE              
REMAINING SHOWERS SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA. CONVECTION HAS BEEN FIRING             
UP ALONG TRAILING SURFACE FRONT WESTWARD FROM SOUTHERN ILLINOIS BACK            
INTO CENTRAL MISSOURI...BUT THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE STAYING TO OUR                
SOUTH. ALTHOUGH THE MAIN FRONT WILL WELL TO THE SOUTH...LOW LEVEL               
MOISTURE REMAINS POOLED TO THE NORTH ACROSS MOST OF CENTRAL                     
ILLINOIS. WITH CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS OVERNIGHT...FAVORABLE             
CONDITIONS FOR FOG WILL SET UP AND THIS IS ALREADY COVERED IN THE               
CURRENT FORECAST. WILL CONTINUE TO ISSUE PERIODIC UPDATES AS THE                
SHOWERS CLEAR THE AREA...BUT THE OVERALL SCENERIO FROM THE AFTERNOON            
FORECAST PACKAGE REMAINS ON TARGET.                                             
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
ISSUED 117 AM CDT FRI AUG 17 2007                                               
FOR 06Z TAFS...FOG WITH AREAS OF DENSE FOG HAVE BEEN DEVELOPING                 
AND WILL CONTINUE INTO THE MORNING HOURS. SO ALL TAF SITES WILL                 
HAVE LIFR CONDITIONS DURING THE MORNING HOURS. FOG SHOULD                       
DISSIPATE QUICKLY IN THE MORNING...BY 14Z ANS NORTHEASTERLY WINDS               
PICK UP TO AROUND 7KTS. REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD WILL BE VFR                 
WITH RIDGING MOVING ACROSS THE AREA. SOME FOG IS POSSIBLE TONIGHT               
BUT SHOULD NOT BE BELOW MVFR AS DRIER AIR SHOULD ADVECT INTO THE                
AREA TODAY.                                                                     
AUTEN                                                                           
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION...                                                             
ISSUED 256 PM CDT THU AUG 16 2007                                               
MAIN CONCERNS DEAL WITH LINGERING STORMS THIS EVENING...FOG LATER               
TONIGHT... THEN STORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A WARM FRONT NEAR US FROM                
SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.                                                         
AT 19Z...AN INITIAL COLD FRONT WAS EXTENDING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN                
TIP OF ILLINOIS...WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT ACROSS NORTHERN                    
ILLINOIS FROM GBG TO LACON TO JOLIET. COOLER AND DRIER HIGH                     
PRESSURE WAS NORTH OF THAT ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST AND SW CANADA.              
FARTHER SOUTH...THE REMNANTS OF ERIN WEST LIFTING NORTH THROUGH                 
TEXAS TOWARD OKLAHOMA. THAT MOISTURE SHOULD EVENTUALLY BE BOTTLED               
UP SOUTH OF THE COLD FRONTS AND NOT AFFECT ILLINOIS.                            
ALOFT...ZONAL FLOW WAS PRESENT ACROSS THE CANADIAN BORDER...WITH A              
SPRAWLING RIDGE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN 2/3 RDS OF THE LOWER 48.                    
SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY.                                          
SOME SEVERE STORMS HIT THIS AFTERNOON WERE ASSOCIATED WITH A MESO               
VORT INDICATED ON RUC AND RADAR LOOPS. THE UNSTABLE AIRMASS                     
BETWEEN THE TWO COLD FRONTS PROVIDED AMPLE SURFACE BASED                        
INSTABILITY FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. PRECIP LOADING WAS MAXIMIZED               
OVER VERY SHORT PERIODS OF TIME...WITH PRECIP WATER VALUES NEAR 2               
INCHES AND MU CAPES OVER 2K J/KG. ANOTHER CURL IS HEADED FOR OUR                
NORTHERN CWA...ALONG THE SECONDARY COLD FRONT. HOWEVER...ONLY                   
STEADY RAIN AND ISOLATED STORMS SHOULD DEVELOP FROM THAT COMPLEX.               
HAVE INCLUDED POPS THIS EVENING BACK UP TOWARD PIA AND BMI FOR                  
LINGERING PRECIP.                                                               
LATER TONIGHT...AS THE TEMPERATURES FALL BEHIND THE SECONDARY COLD              
FRONT...FOG WILL LIKELY FORM ALL ACROSS CENTRAL ILLINOIS. WENT                  
WITH AREAS OF FOG AFTER MIDNIGHT IN THE GRIDS.                                  
WE SHOULD SEE SOME RELIEF IN TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY...AS DEWPOINTS              
DROP INTO THE 50S IN MOST OF CENTRAL ILLINOIS. THE RELIEF WILL BE               
SHORT LIVED...HOWEVER. SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNS ON SATURDAY                       
AFTERNOON...AS A WARM FRONT DEVELOPS ACROSS THE ILLINOIS WISCONSIN              
BORDER. STORMS SHOULD REMAIN NORTH OF OUR CWA...ALONG THE FRONT                 
AND H5 SHORT WAVE PATH.                                                         
LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.                                            
THE WARM FRONT LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BECOME ACTIVE IN CENTRAL                      
ILLINOIS ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON...WITH A STORM COMPLEX IN IOWA                     
DEVELOPING AND MOVING EAST WITH THE MEAN FLOW INTO CENTRAL                      
ILLINOIS. THE WARM FRONT IS EXPECTED TO LIFT NORTH ON MONDAY...BUT              
REMAIN VERY CLOSE TO OUR NORTHERN CWA...FROM LACON TO HOOPESTON.                
WILL KEEP THE CHANCES OF STORMS PRIMARILY IN THE NORTHERN HALF OF               
THE CWA FOR MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...TO ACCOUNT FOR THE ACTIVE                  
STREAM OF SHORTWAVES MOVING EAST FROM THE PLAINS ON SEMI ZONAL                  
FLOW. TEMPS WILL LIKELY CLIMB TO AROUND 90 IN MOST AREAS...WITH                 
LOWER 90S SOUTH OF I-70 MOST DAYS NEXT WEEK. DRY CONDITIONS ARE                 
EXPECTED FOR WED...BUT THUR AND THUR NIGHT HAVE A SLIGHT CHC FOR                
STORMS AS A DEEPER TROUGH DEVELOPS IN THE UPPER FLOW ACROSS THE                 
WESTERN STATES...PROVIDING OUR AREA WITH A MORE ACTIVE SOUTHWEST                
FLOW.                                                                           
&&                                                                              
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR ILZ027>031-                  
036>038-040>057-061>063.                                                        
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</pre> il                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY                                             
929 PM CDT FRI AUG 17 2007                                                      
.UPDATE...                                                                      
SECONDARY UPDATE FOR SENSIBLE WEATHER TRENDS TONIGHT.                           
&&                                                                              
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING CONVECTION OVER CARTER/WAYNE COUNTIES                    
UNDERGOING A MEASURABLE DOWNWARD TREND AND SHOULD COMPLETELY                    
DISSIPATE BEFORE 06Z. THE 21Z/00Z RUC CONTINUES TO HAVE THE BEST                
HANDLE ON THE TEMPORAL/SPATIAL COVERAGE OF THE PRECIPITATION                    
ACROSS THE MO OZARK FOOTHILLS AND WAS FOLLOWED FOR SHORT TERM                   
GUIDANCE FOR THE GRID/TABULAR/GRAPHIC/TEXT UPDATE THIS EVENING.                 
LAPS SURFACE BASED DATA STILL SHOWS A MARKED GRADIENT OF POSITIVE               
CAPE OVER CARTER AND RIPLEY COUNTIES AS OF 02Z...BUT THE OVERALL                
SURFACE BASED THETA-E CONVERGENCE CONTINUES TO WITHDRAW BACK INTO               
AR UNDER NELY WIND FLOW. ALTHOUGH SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY COULD               
POSSIBLY TRIGGER SOME ISOLATED CONVECTION BEYOND MIDNIGHT /AS HAS               
BEEN THE CASE THE LAST COUPLE OF NIGHTS/...THERE DOES NOT APPEAR                
TO BE A STRONG TRIGGER EVIDENT IN THE SHORT TERM GUIDANCE THAT                  
WOULD SUPPORT WIDESPREAD LIFT FOR SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM                        
DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT. SO...FOR NOW...I HAVE DECIDED TO KEEP THE                
CURRENT FORECAST TREND FOR DRY WEATHER IN PLACE FROM THE 06-12Z                 
SATURDAY TIME FRAME.                                                            
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 237 PM CDT FRI AUG 17 2007/                         
DISCUSSION...                                                                   
BIGGEST CHALLENGES WITH THIS PACKAGE WILL BE THE TIMING OF MOISTURE             
RETURN AND CHANCES OF PRECIP FROM SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY.                      
DIFFUSE FRONT DIFFICULT TO LOCATE BUT APPEARS TO BE ORIENTED NW-SE              
JUST OUTSIDE OF THE WESTERN EDGE OF OUR CWA. DRIER AIR HAS FILTERED             
IN FROM THE NORTHEAST ACROSS ALL OF THE CWA EXCEPT SOUTHEAST                    
MISSOURI. ALSO ACROSS SOUTHEAST MISSOURI IS A NW-SE ORIENTED AXIS OF            
THETA E...CAPE...AND INSTABILITY. ALTHOUGH THERE APPEARS TO BE NO               
LOW LEVEL FORCING WITH WINDS FROM THE SURFACE THROUGH 850MB HAVING              
SOME BIT OF A NORTHERLY COMPONENT...WITH RESIDUAL MOISTURE AND                  
HEATING OF THE DAY...MAY SEE AN EVENING RW/TRW OVER OUR FAR WESTERN             
COUNTIES THIS EVENING.                                                          
ON SATURDAY THE SOUTHERN END OF THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT WILL WASH              
OUT AND AN E-W ORIENTED WARM FRONT WILL ESTABLISH ITSELF TO THE                 
NORTH OF OUR CWA. ALSO ON SATURDAY WITH THE AXIS OF THE RETREATING              
HIGH PRESSURE AREA EXTENDING SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE CWA...ONLY CHANCE             
FOR POPS SHOULD BE ACROSS THE FAR WESTERN SECTIONS...WITH CHANCES               
MIGRATING SLIGHTLY FURTHER EAST SATURDAY NIGHT.                                 
BEST CHANCES FOR POPS ARE ON SUNDAY AS DEEPER MOISTURE IS ADVECTED              
INTO THE REGION AHEAD OF AN H5 TROUGH MOVING EAST. POP CHANCES TAPER            
OFF SLOWLY EACH PERIOD THROUGH MONDAY AS RIPPLES OF ENERGY CONTINUE             
TO TAP INTO DECENT MOISTURE AS THEY PASS EASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA.              
STARTING MONDAY NIGHT THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEAST US               
BEGINS TO BUILD SLOWLY NORTHWESTWARD. THIS WILL SERVE TO DEFLECT ANY            
CHANCES OF PRECIP TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF OUR CWA THROUGH THURSDAY             
NIGHT. BY FRIDAY FLOW AROUND THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A CANADIAN               
VORTEX WILL SUPPRESS THE UPPER RIDGE BACK TO THE SOUTH ALLOWING A               
SURFACE BOUNDARY TO SAG TOWARD THE REGION ALONG WITH SHORT WAVE                 
ENERGY MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION. THEREFORE...PUT A SCHC                
POPS IN FOR DAY SEVEN AND BEYOND.                                               
FOR TEMPERATURES...USED A COMPROMISE BETWEEN MAV AND ETA MOS                    
GUIDANCE.                                                                       
AVIATION...                                                                     
FEW-SCT CU AND SCT-BKN250 ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF TWB232 AND                
WESTERN PORTIONS OF TWB236 THROUGH EARLY EVENING.  ISOLATED TSTMS               
POSSIBLE IN SOUTHERN PORTION OF TWB232.   REST OF REGION CAN EXPECT             
SKC-SCT250 OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH LITTLE TO NO CU DEVELOPMENT.             
N TO NE WINDS AT 5 TO 12KTS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BECOME LIGHT AFTER              
01Z...THEN PICK BACK UP FROM THE SOUTHEAST TO 5 TO 12KTS AFTER 13Z              
SATURDAY.  MAY SEE LIGHT FOG AT KCGI BETWEEN 08Z AND 13Z.                       
&&                                                                              
.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
KY...NONE.                                                                      
MO...NONE.                                                                      
IL...NONE.                                                                      
IN...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHORT TERM...SMITH                                                              
AVIATION...GM                                                                   
</pre> ky                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA                                        
1006 AM CDT SAT AUG 18 2007                                                     
.UPDATE...SATELLITE AND RADAR THIS MORNING HAS SHOWN CONVECTION                 
FIRING ALONG THE SE TX/SW LA COAST AND SPREADING INLAND OVER W OF               
THE LCH AREA. THE SHOWERS AND STORMS WELL ALIGNED WELL WITH THE                 
SURFACE THETA E RIDGE AS DEPICTED BY THE 12Z RUC AND WITH GOES                  
SOUNDER PRECIP WATER. 12Z KLCH AND KCRP SOUNDINGS ARE WELL OVER 2               
INCHES IN PRECIP WATER...BUT KLIX SOUNDING WAS RELATIVELY LOW WITH              
PWATS AROUND 1.70. CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS GOOD FOR NOW...POPS TO                
REMAIN HIGHEST IN SE TX BUT THINK THINK MAY TWEAK POPS DOWNWARD                 
ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTH CENTRAL LA.                                               
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 422 AM CDT SAT AUG 18 2007/                         
SYNOPSIS...                                                                     
TROPICAL DEPRESSION ERIN...LOCATED NEAR MIDLAND TEXAS...WILL DRIFT              
NORTH...THAN NORTHEAST...REACHING ALTUS OKLAHOMA ON SUNDAY.                     
A DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE...LOCATED ACROSS WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA                 
..WILL TRAVEL EAST...MOVING OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST ON MONDAY.             
AN ASSOCIATED BACKDOOR COLD FRONT EXTENDS ANTICYCLONICALLY THROUGH              
SOUTHERN MISSOURI TO ACROSS NORTHERN GEORGIA TO SOUTH CAROLINA.                 
AT CIRRUS LEVEL...A TUTT LOW...LOCATED ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA...WILL              
TRAVEL WEST ACROSS THE MIDDLE GULF OF MEXICO...REACHING                         
BROWNSVILLE TEXAS BY MONDAY EVENING. UPPER-LEVEL DIFLUENCE WILL BE              
FOUND DOWNSTREAM (OR WESTWARD) OF THE TUTT LOW.                                 
SEE THE LATEST ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ON              
HURRICANE DEAN.                                                                 
DISCUSSION...                                                                   
A WARM CONVEYOR BELT AIRSTREAM...ASSOCIATED WITH ERIN...REMAINS IN              
PLACE ACROSS THE WESTERN UPPER GULF COAST STATES. THE BACKDOOR FRONT            
IS DUCTING THE INCOMING...SLANTWISE-ASCENDING GULF AIR THROUGH                  
LOUISIANA AND ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE             
EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN...AS THE SLANTWISE ASCENDING AIR RELEASES THE               
RELATIVELY-CONSTANT POTENTIAL INSTABILITY.                                      
THE RAIN CHANCES WILL BE GREATEST ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND                    
SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA...WHERE THE RICH GULF AIR ASCENDS CYCLONICALLY.             
OTHERWISE MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH SLIGHTLY BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES           
AND SLIGHTLY ABOVE-NORMAL HUMIDITIES CAN BE EXPECTED.                           
THE RAIN CHANCES WILL BE LEAST ACROSS EAST CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL            
LOUISIANA...WHERE THE GULF AIR ASCENDS ANTICYCLONICALLY. YOU CAN                
EXPECT PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH SLIGHTLY ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES              
AND NEAR-NORMAL HUMIDITIES.                                                     
FOR SUNDAY...RAIN CHANCES INCREASE ACROSS EAST CENTRAL AND SOUTH-               
CENTRAL LOUISIANA WITH THE APPROACH OF THE TUTT LOW. BOTH THE                   
TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITIES WILL BE RUNNING ABOUT SEASONABLE                    
THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA.                                            
MARINE...                                                                       
SOUTHEASTERLY SWELLS...ASSOCIATED WITH HURRICANE DEAN...ARE                     
EXPECTED TO REACH THE COASTAL WATERS BY WEDNESDAY MORNING.                      
A POSSIBLE TIDAL PILE-UP MAY CAUSE COASTAL FLOODING.                            
AVIATION...                                                                     
THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE GREATEST ACROSS                
SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA.                                        
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
KLCH  90  74  90  74 /  40  10  50  10                                          
KBPT  90  76  90  75 /  50  10  50  10                                          
KAEX  94  72  92  71 /  30  10  40  10                                          
KLFT  93  75  89  73 /  30  10  50  10                                          
&&                                                                              
.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
LA...NONE.                                                                      
TX...NONE.                                                                      
GM...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
AP                                                                              
</pre> la                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME                                             
713 PM EDT FRI AUG 17 2007                                                      
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT INTO                   
SATURDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL RESULT IN SCATTERED SHOWERS LATER                    
TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN START TO BUILD                
ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH                   
UNSEASONABLY COOL WEATHER EXPECTED.                                             
&&                                                                              
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...                                                
LATEST RADAR AND LTG DATA INDICATING SOME TSTMS MOVING INTO CNTL                
MAINE AND PUSHING NEWD. IR SATL IMAGERY SHOWING COOLING TOP AS                  
WELL. THIS ACTIVITY IS MOVING INTO A MORE STABLE ENVIRONMENT ESP                
ACROSS NRN MAINE. FURTHER S ACROSS DOWNEAST AREAS...ACTIVITY LOOKS              
LIKE IT WILL HOLD TOGETHER. DECIDED TO ADD MENTION OF THE TSTMS                 
INTO TONIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY MORNING BASED ON LATEST RUC & NAM               
SOUNDINGS WHICH APPEAR TO BE IN LINE W/WHAT IS HAPPENING ATTM.                  
ADDED GUSTY WINDS TO CNTL AND DOWNEAST AREAS. SMALL HAIL IS ALSO                
POSSIBLE GIVEN WBZ DOWN AROUND 7500`.                                           
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE CURRENTLY                  
ACROSS ONTARIO AND QUEBEC PROVINCE. THIS FEATURE WILL BE THE                    
WEATHER MAKER ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA LATER TONIGHT AND INTO                   
SATURDAY. EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS TO AFFECT THE FORECAST AREA                  
LATER TONIGHT AND INTO SATURDAY AS THIS DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS.               
HAVE GENERALLY USED A BLEND OF THE GFS/NAM12.                                   
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...                                  
COOL BUT MAINLY DRY WEATHER THROUGH THIS PERIOD.  NW FLOW WITH UPPER            
LEVEL TROF TO PERSIST.  STAYED CLOSE TO GFS & GRIDDED MOS SOLUTION.             
EXPECT P/C SKIES SAT NIGHT AND SUNDAY OVER NRN AREAS WITH DIURNAL               
INSTABILITY. OVER SRN AREAS DOWN SLOPING SHOULD RESULT IN CLR TO                
P/C SKIES.  RIDGING TO SLOWLY BUILD IN SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.                 
COOLEST AIRMASS OF THE LATE SUMMER SEASON TO YIELD LOWS IN THE 30S              
OVER NW AREAS...WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF SCT FROST             
MONDAY MORNING.  EXPECT AREAS OF VALLEY FOG AND RADIATION FOG SUNDAY            
NIGHT AS WELL.                                                                  
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...                                     
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE WEATHER PATTERN FOR                 
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY KEEPING THINGS DRY AND COOL ACROSS THE                
REGION. NEXT GOOD CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BE WITH THE                     
ARRIVAL OF A WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY FROM THE WEST. OPERATIONAL GFS               
HAS HAD A TENDENCY TO BE FASTER WITH THE PROGRESSION OF THIS                    
SYSTEM IN RELATION TO THE SLOWER ECMWF/GFS ENSEMBLE/CANADIAN                    
RUNS...WITH SUCCESSIVE GFS RUNS TRENDING MORE TOWARDS THIS SLOWER               
SOLUTION. PREFERRED THEREFORE THIS TIMING OF THE FRONT WHICH                    
BRINGS IT CLOSE TO THE AREA BY LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY                    
MORNING. HPC GUIDANCE REFLECTED THIS WELL AND THEREFORE ONLY MADE               
MINOR CHANGES TO ITS GRIDS. A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL THEN LINGER               
THROUGH FRIDAY AS COLD FRONT THEN CROSSES THE REGION.                           
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION /23Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...                                     
GENERALLY VFR VSBY/CIGS TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. HOWEVER THERE                 
MAY BE SOME BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN ANY SCATTERED                   
SHOWERS TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. OTHERWISE MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS               
ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.                                          
&&                                                                              
.MARINE...                                                                      
NO HEADLINES EXPECT THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.                                
&&                                                                              
.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
ME...NONE.                                                                      
MARINE...NONE.                                                                  
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
NEAR TERM...DUDA/HEWITT                                                         
SHORT TERM...LULOFS                                                             
LONG TERM...WEITLICH                                                            
AVIATION...DUDA/HEWITT                                                          
MARINE...DUDA/HEWITT/LULOFS                                                     
</pre> me                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI                                             
1041 PM EDT SAT AUG 18 2007                                                     
.UPDATE...AS THE RADAR HAS BEEN SHOWING THIS EVENING, THE RAIN                  
SHOWERS HAVE BEEN MOVING TO THE SOUTH AND EAST. TRIMMED THE RAIN                
FARTHER SOUTH AND MAY HAVE TO UPDATE AGAIN AS THE RAIN LOOKING                  
UPSTREAM ARE SHOWING WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND SPRINKLES.                    
OTHERWISE, THE TEMPERATURES LOOKS GOOD WITH THE CLOUD COVER THAT IS             
OVER THE REGION AND THE HIGH PRESSURE THAT IS KEEPING THE WINDS DOWN            
TONIGHT.                                                                        
LUTZ                                                                            
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...ISSUED 802 PM                                                       
RAIN IS MAINLY SOUTH OF M-55 SO FOR THE SHORT TERM, TVC WILL STAY               
OUT OF THE RAIN, THOUGH SPRINKLES AREN`T OUT OF THE QUESTION. APN               
AND PLN ARE TOO FAR NORTH AT THIS POINT AS THE RAIN LOOKS TO BE                 
FOLLOWING THE GFS CONFIGURATION TO THE QPF. MBL IS SHOWING 10SM, AND            
REPORTED 0.01 LAST HOUR SO FOR THE BALANCE OF THE NIGHT THE GOING               
FORECAST LOOKS GOOD. THIS LOOKS TO BE THINKING IN THE PUBLIC                    
FORECAST AS WELL THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING SO WILL KEEP THE BULK OF THE            
FORECAST DRY WITH SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES NEAR TVC. THE WIND LOOKS TO              
REMAIN UNDER 10 KNTS FOR SUNDAY AS WELL.                                        
LUTZ                                                                            
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 328 PM                                                
ANOTHER NICE FALL-LIKE DAY ACROSS THE CWA WITH HIGH PRESSURE FULLY              
IN CONTROL WILL TRANSITION TO A BIT MORE TRICKY FORECAST OVERNIGHT.             
EARLY AFTERNOON ANALYSIS SHOWS A BUILDING LOW/ MID LEVEL RIDGE                  
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES...WITH SURFACE RIDGING STILL CENTERED               
ACROSS NORTHERN MICHIGAN BUT BEGINNING TO SLIP EAST EVER-SO-SLOWLY.             
RETURN FLOW ON THE BACKSIDE OF SOUTHEAST RIDGE FULLY UNDERWAY...WITH            
ONGOING BROAD ISENTROPIC ASCENT CONTINUING TO DRIVE A RATHER                    
EXPANSIVE AREA OF PRECIPITATION LIFTING THROUGH WISCONSIN. IT IS                
THIS AREA OF PRECIPITATION THAT REMAINS THE PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN            
FOR TONIGHT...NAMELY WILL IT AFFECT THE CWA AND WHAT EFFECT WILL THE            
ADDITIONAL CLOUDS HAVE ON OVERNIGHT LOWS.                                       
QUICK LOOK AT REGIONAL RADAR MOSAIC SHOWS A BIT BETTER ORGANIZED                
AREA OF PRECIP THAN SUGGESTED BY THE 12Z MODEL GUIDANCE...OWING                 
PRIMARILY TO APPARENT ADDED JET DIVERGENCE...WITH JET ENTRANCE                  
REGION SLIPPING ACROSS FAR NORTHERN MINNESOTA...AS WELL AS A                    
PRONOUNCED VORT PROGRESSING INTO WESTERN MINNESOTA PER RUC ANALYSIS/            
WATER VAPOR PICS (REMNANTS OF LAST NIGHT`S CONVECTION OVER THE                  
BLACK HILLS?). HAVE BEEN RATHER IMPRESSED AT PRECIP`S ABILITY TO                
OVERCOME DRY AIRMASS JUST TO THE WEST...WITH QUITE A FEW SITES                  
GOING FROM BKN-OVC200 DOWN TO OVC070 WITH PRECIP IN AN HOUR...ALSO              
SUGGESTING FORCED ASCENT A BIT BETTER THAN MODELS CREDIT. THIS ALL              
LEADS TO A RATHER MURKY PRECIP FORECAST FOR THE APX CWA OVERNIGHT...            
AS THINKING HAS BEEN DRY AIR WOULD WIN OUT...AND IT DOES APPEAR                 
THIS WILL WORK FOR THE NORTHERN HALF...BUT HAVE HAD TO RE-EVALUATE              
FARTHER SOUTH. OVERNIGHT...THE LIFT FOR PRECIP WILL CERTAINLY BE                
THERE...WITH DECENT 305-310K ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE (25-30 KNOTS UP                 
THE SURFACE) ON THE INCREASE AS WARM ADVECTION COMMENCES...WITH                 
DEEP LAYER (900-700MB) FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING IN PLACE AS WELL                 
GIVEN TIGHT BAROCLINIC ZONE ACROSS THE MIDWEST/LOWER GREAT LAKES.               
HOWEVER...RH PROGS ON THESE SURFACES AND SFC-H85 THETA-E ALSO SHOW              
A SHARP CUTOFF TO DEEP MOISTURE...AS BOTH CONVECTION TO THE SOUTH               
TAKES OVER TONIGHT...AND DEEP LAYER SUBSIDENCE/DRYING THIS                      
AFTERNOON AND EVENING (SFC-700MB RH LESS THAN 35%) HOLD FIRM.                   
THUS...WHILE THE OVERALL TREND OF THE DRY AIR WINNING OUT STILL                 
LOOKS OK...HAVE TRENDED POPS FARTHER NORTH THROUGH THE NIGHTTIME                
HOURS...IN LINE WITH THE 09Z SREF/12Z UKMET WHICH SEEM TO HAVE A                
BETTER HANDLE ON CURRENT PRECIP. STILL NOT TALKING ABOUT A WHOLE                
LOT OF RAIN...BUT ANY RAIN IS WELCOME AT THIS POINT. NO THREAT OF               
ANY THUNDER OWING TO LACK OF MOISTURE/INSTABILITY AS WELL AS FLAT               
MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES.                                                          
AS FOR TEMPERATURES...THESE ALSO TRICKY GIVEN UNCERTAIN DEGREE OF               
CLOUD COVER. CLOUDY CONDITIONS EXPECTED THRU THE NIGHT ACROSS THE               
SOUTH IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO FORCING/BETTER MOISTURE...WHILE MAY                
VERY WELL SEE THINGS CLEAR OUT ACROSS THE NORTH WITH BETTER                     
SUBSIDENCE. WILL HOLD NUMBERS UP ABOVE GUIDANCE VALUES ACROSS THE               
SOUTH WITH PLENTIFUL CLOUD COVER...BUT CONTINUE PREVIOUS IDEA OF                
RATHER COOL READINGS (LOWER 40S...IF NOT A FEW UPPER 30S) FAR NORTH             
GIVEN SFC RIDGE AXIS HOLDING IN WITH FLOW DECOUPLING AND RESIDUAL               
DRY AIRMASS STILL IN PLACE.                                                     
LAWRENCE                                                                        
LONG TERM...RECENT PATTERN OF TROUGHS OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC AND              
EASTERN CANADA/NEW ENGLAND...AND LOW AMPLITUDE RIDGING IN BETWEEN               
EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE PROGRESSIVE FOR THE COMING WEEK...AS                    
PACIFIC TROUGH MOVES INLAND AND HEIGHTS RISE ACROSS THE GREAT                   
LAKES. HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE AT THE ONSET OF THE FORECAST PERIOD               
TODAY WILL SLIDE EAST/NORTHEAST...ELONGATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY                    
STRETCHING FROM THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE                    
TENNESSEE VALLEY WILL SLOWLY LIFT NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT IN                  
RESPONSE. THIS WARM FRONT NOT LIKELY TO EVEN REACH LOWER MI UNTIL               
LATER MONDAY...AND EVEN THEN WILL PROBABLY HANG ALONG THE SOUTHERN              
BORDER THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEK. SINCE THIS BOUNDARY WILL             
BE THE MAIN FOCUS FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL              
DAYS...MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS FOR THE NEAR TERM PORTION OF THE                  
FORECAST WILL BASICALLY DEAL WITH HOW FAR NORTH THE THREAT FOR                  
RAIN WILL REACH.                                                                
SUNDAY...EXPECT A GOOD DEAL OF CONVECTION TO BE GOING SOUTHWEST/                
SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA TO START SUNDAY MORNING ALONG                        
FRONTOGENETICALLY ACTIVE WARM FRONTAL ZONE WHICH IS EXPECTED TO                 
EXTEND ACROSS SOUTHERN WI/FAR SOUTHERN LOWER MI (ACTUAL WARM FRONT              
WILL LIE ACROSS NORTHEAST IA/NORTHERN IL/CENTRAL IN). AXIS OF                   
DEEPER MOISTURE WILL PROBABLY REMAIN MAINLY SOUTH OF THE FORECAST               
AREA AS WELL...NAM TRIES TO BRING MOISTURE/QPF FARTHER NORTH                    
ALTHOUGH ITS PRESUMED MCS DEVELOPMENT LOOKS TO BE TOO FAR NORTH                 
(AS DOES ITS WARM FRONTAL POSITION). BUT RELUCTANT TO COMPLETELY                
JUMP ONTO ONE SPECIFIC MODEL SOLUTION GIVEN WHAT IS CURRENTLY                   
HAPPENING UPSTREAM TODAY...WILL SIMPLY EXPAND CURRENT RAIN CHANCES              
NORTH AND EAST A BIT TO ALLOW FOR A BIGGER MARGIN OF ERROR.                     
CURRENT EXPECTATION IS THAT MOST OF THE PRECIP WILL BE SOUTH OF                 
THE FORECAST AREA...ESPECIALLY IF MID LEVEL WINDS HAVE MORE OF A                
NORTHERLY COMPONENT. WILL GO DRY SUNDAY NIGHT WITH PRECIPITATION                
TO THE SOUTH ALONG THE WARM FRONT...AND POSSIBLY SOME WARM                      
ADVECTION PRECIP ACROSS WI.                                                     
MONDAY...WARM FRONT STILL WELL TO THE SOUTH...THOUGH SOME LOW/MID               
LEVEL WARM ADVECTION PUSHES INTO PARTS OF NORTHERN LOWER ALONG                  
WITH SOME ATTENDANT DEEPER MOISTURE. WILL CONTINUE LOW CHANCE POPS              
SOUTH OF M-72 TO COVER THIS. OTHERWISE MAIN ACTION REMAINS SOUTH                
OF THE STATE...WITH PERHAPS THE REMNANTS OF T.D. "ERIN" GETTING                 
SCOOPED UP AND INVOLVED WITH HAPPENINGS ALONG THE WARM FRONT                    
ACROSS THE NORTHERN OHIO VALLEY. AT THIS POINT HOWEVER THIS DOES                
NOT APPEAR TO BE A THREAT FOR NORTHERN MI.                                      
EXTENDED PERIODS (TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...HEIGHT FALLS                      
PROGRESSING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL EVENTUALLY HELP LIFT                
THE WARM FRONT INTO THE STATE IN THE LATER TUESDAY TIME FRAME...                
FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT WEDNESDAY. CURRENT RAIN CHANCES FOR                    
TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY LOOK REASONABLE GIVEN THIS PROGRESSION...THOUGH               
IF THE WARM FRONT TIMING IS SLOW AREAS FARTHER NORTH COULD END UP               
BEING DRY FOR MUCH OF TUESDAY...AND THAT IS A CONCERN THAT WILL                 
NEED TO BE WATCHED.  FORECAST GETS MORE COMPLICATED FOR THURSDAY                
AND BEYOND...ONCE COLD FRONT GOES THROUGH IT WILL EVENTUALLY SLOW               
DOWN AND PARALLEL UPPER FLOW. WHERE EXACTLY THE BOUNDARY HANGS UP               
WILL DETERMINE WHAT TYPE OF PRECIPITATION CHANCES WE END UP WITH...             
ASSUMING FRONT HANGS UP SOMEWHERE ACROSS LOWER MI/WI...WE COULD BE              
STARING AT CARRYING RAIN CHANCES EACH DAY FROM THURSDAY THROUGH                 
SATURDAY. GIVEN THE RECENT EXPANDING DROUGHT CONDITIONS NOT                     
EXACTLY COMFORTABLE WITH THAT. CURRENT FORECAST HAS RAIN CHANCES                
THURSDAY AND DRY FRIDAY...ACTUALLY THINK THE OPPOSITE MAY BE A                  
BETTER WAY TO GO AND WILL PUSH THE FORECAST IN THAT DIRECTION                   
DESPITE POTENTIAL FOR FLIP-FLOPPING OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL FORECAST              
CYCLES. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL PROBABLY AVERAGE A                 
BIT ABOVE NORMAL...MOSTLY DEPENDING ON CLOUD/PRECIPITATION                      
COVERAGE EACH DAY.                                                              
JPB                                                                             
&&                                                                              
.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                        
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</pre> mi                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
948 PM EDT SAT AUG 18 2007                                                      
.UPDATE...                                                                      
LATEST RADAR LOOP SHOWS BANDS OF SHOWERS STRETCHING FROM                        
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN MN INTO SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN BECOMING SMALLER               
WIDTH WISE...NOW MOSTLY CONCENTRATED ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-94.                   
HOWEVER...THIS CONCENTRATED ZONE NOW CONSISTS OF HEAVIER SHOWERS AND            
THUNDERSTORMS...LIKELY DUE TO INCREASING SOUTHWEST WINDS AT 850MB               
NOTED ON THE BLUE RIVER WISCONSIN PROFILER (NOW 30-35KT) IMPINGING              
ON THE NEARLY STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY. PLENTY OF HEAT AND                   
MOISTURE EXISTS SOUTH OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO SUSTAIN THE                    
CONVECTION...ESPECIALLY WITH THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL STORM ERIN                
BEING ADVECTED NORTHWARD WITHIN THE LOW LEVEL JET. CLOSER TO                    
HOME...EXCEPT FOR A FEW OF THE SHOWERS BRUSHING THE MENOMINEE AREA              
BETWEEN 20-24Z...THE CWA REMAINS DRY WITH MID AND HIGH CLOUDS                   
CROSSING. THESE CLOUDS ARE ALSO ASSOCIATED WITH THE MID-LEVEL                   
FRONTOGENESIS AND RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION FORCING AIDING IN THE                   
SHOWERS FARTHER TO THE SW.                                                      
WITH THE SHOWERS DRYING UP FROM CENTRAL MN INTO EAST-CENTRAL                    
WI...THERE IS CONCERN THAT PCPN MAY BE ENTIRELY DONE NOW MENOMINEE              
COUNTY (THE ONLY PLACE WITH -SHRA MENTION IN THE CWA). TWO THINGS               
COULD BE OCCURRING THAT IS CAUSING THE DIMINISHING OF SHOWERS:                  
INCREASED CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IN SOUTHERN MN AND SOUTHERN WI IS                 
INHIBITING MOISTURE TRANSPORT TOWARDS NORTHERN WI AND/OR THE                    
COMBINATION OF THE MID-LEVEL FRONTOGENETICAL AND UPPER LEVEL JET                
CIRCULATIONS ARE DRIVING DRIER AIR SOUTHWESTWARD. 20Z TAMDAR                    
SOUNDING FROM CHIPPEWA COUNTY AIRPORT SHOWED A LOT OF DRY AIR IN THE            
600-800MB LAYER (DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS OF 20C OR MORE). GIVEN THAT               
THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW IS PROGGED TO REMAIN CONFLUENT WITH HEIGHTS                
RISING INTO SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA...AND TROUGHING IN NEW                         
ENGLAND...THINK IT WILL BE HARD TO GET THE SHOWERS NORTHWARD. THE               
18Z GFS CONCURS WITH THIS IDEA...AND THUS HAVE DECIDED TO                       
REMOVE SHOWERS FROM THE FCST.                                                   
GOING TEMPS SEEM REASONABLE...THOUGH SINCE SKIES REMAIN CLEAR OUT               
EAST AND LOW PRECIPITABLE WATER THERE...HAVE DECIDED TO DROP TEMPS A            
FEW MORE DEGREES. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE ABOUT 0.25 INCH                 
HIGHER THAN LAST NIGHT...SUGGESTING LOWS SHOULD NOT GET AS COLD.                
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT AND SUNDAY)                                              
MAIN FCST CONCERNS ARE PCPN CHANCES ALONG WITH CLOUDS/TEMPS.                    
WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS INDICATED A TROF INTO THE PAC NW A RDG              
FROM THE PLAINS TO SASK AND A TROF FROM ERN CANADA INTO NRN NEW                 
ENGLAND RESULTING IN WNW FLOW THROUGH THE NRN GREAT LAKES. A WEAK               
SHORTWAVE TROUGH FROM WRN WI TO NRN IA WAS MOVING E. AT THE                     
SFC...LOW PRES WAS LOCATED OVER SRN SD WITH A WARM FRONT EXTENDING              
THROUGH CNTRL IA TO ERN MO. THE COMBINATION OF UPPER LEVEL DIV WITH             
THE RIGHT ENTRANCE OF TH 250-300 JET AND 850-700 FGEN AND ASSOCIATED            
305K-310K ISENTROPIC LIFT SUPPORTED A BROAD AREA OF RAIN FROM ERN MN            
THROUGH THE S 2/3 OF WI. TSRA WERE CONFINED TO A BAND CLOSER TO THE             
FRONT...FROM SRN MN INTO SW WI AND NRN IL. VIS IMAGERY SHOWED MID               
HIGH CLOUDS HAD THINNED OUT OVER THE NRN CWA WITH THE THICKER CLOUDS            
REMAINING NEAR THE WI BORDER. RADARS ALSO SHOWED RETURNS CREEPING               
FROM WI CLOSER TO THE BORDER BUT WITH SFC -RA REPORTS LAGGING                   
FARTHER TO THE S DUE TO THE PRESENCE OF A SUBSTANTIAL 850-650 MB DRY            
LAYER PER 18Z KSAW TAMDAR SOUNDINGS AND EARLIER KRHI SOUNDING.                  
WITH THE VERY DRY AIRMASS LINGERING TO THE NORTH AND CONFLUENT                  
MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW N OF THE AREA LEADING TO MAINLY E OR ESE SHIFT             
OF THE AFOREMENTIONED RAIN SUPPORTING DYNAMICS...ANY ADDITIONAL                 
PROGRESS OF THE PCPN INTO UPPER MI FROM TONIGHT INTO EARLY SUN WILL             
BE MARGINAL. SO...LOWER END POPS WERE CONFINED TO MAINLY THE SRN                
HALF OF MENOMINEE COUNTY.                                                       
ALTHOUGH THE MID/HIGH CLOUDS MAY REDUCE RADIATIONAL COOLING COMPARED            
TO LAST NIGHT...THEY SHOULD REMAIN THIN ENOUGH TO ALLOW INLAND TEMPS            
TO DROP INTO THE 40S. SIMILARLY...MAINLY THIN HIGH CLOUDS AGAIN                 
SUNDAY AND DECENT SUNSHINE WITH 850 MB TEMPS AROUND 9C SUPPORTS                 
MAX READINGS INTO THE LOWER 70S.                                                
.LONG TERM (SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)...                                   
STUBBORN PATTERN FINALLY BEGINS TO ERODE BY EARLY IN THE WORK                   
WEEK...NEVERTHELESS SFC HIGH AND SOME MID LEVEL RIDGING WILL SHUNT              
THE BEST DYNAMICS SOUTH OF THE CWFA...SENDING THE PRECIP CHANCES                
SOUTH WITH IT THROUGH MONDAY. BROAD TROUGHING OVER THE WESTERN CONUS            
BEGINS TO SHIFT THE RIDGE EASTWARD...ALLOWING A SURFACE LOW OVER                
WEST CENTRAL CANADA TO DEEPEN WHILE REMAINING NEARLY STATIONARY FROM            
00Z TUE TO 00Z WED. ENERGY WRAPPING AROUND THE LOW REACHES INTO                 
THE NORTH CENTRAL PLAINS AND INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES.                        
WARM FRONT IN CENTRAL WI BY TUE MORNING WARRANTS CONTINUED MENTION              
OF CHANCE POPS IN THE SOUTHERN CWFA OVERNIGHT MONDAY...ALTHOUGH                 
ENERGY COULD AGAIN REMAIN MOSTLY SOUTH OF UPPER MI UNTIL TUESDAY                
AFTERNOON. WARM AND MOIST AIR ADVECTING INTO THE CWFA ON TUESDAY                
AHEAD OF THE TRAILING COLD FRONT ALSO LEND TO THE IDEA OF POSSIBLE              
SEVERE ACTIVITY WITH SOME OF DEVELOPING THUNDERSTORMS...ALTHOUGH THE            
BEST DYNAMICS AND MOST MOISTURE SUGGESTS THE GREATEST THREAT WOULD              
BE OVER THE EASTERN MN/WESTERN WI AREA.                                         
LOOKING AT SOME PARAMETERS MORE CLOSELY FOR THE TUESDAY AFTERNOON               
THROUGH EVENING TIMEFRAME SUGGESTS THAT SHOULD THUNDERSTORMS                    
DEVELOP...SOME OF THE STORMS MAY BE SEVERE. BETWEEN 18Z TUE AND 06Z             
WED...0-6 BULK SHEAR OVER THE WESTERN COUNTIES AND LAKE SUPERIOR                
INCREASES FROM 30-35 KT TO THE 60S. AT THE SAME TIME...0-2 SHEAR                
TOPS OUT AROUND 30-40 KT WITH GOOD LOW LEVEL DIRECTIONAL SHEAR. KIMT            
HODOGRAPH SHOWS STRONG CLOCKWISE SPIN ALONG WITH AN LCL AROUND 1000             
FT AT 21Z TUE. MUCAPES INCREASE DRAMATICALLY FROM WEST TO EAST                  
ACROSS THE CWFA DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY...PEAKING AROUND 2200 J/KG            
AT KIWD IN THE AFTERNOON. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINLY IN THE TIMING/CHANCE            
OF THUNDERSTORMS...NEVERMIND IF THEY COULD BE SEVERE OVER THE                   
WEST/WEST CENTRAL...DID NOT INCREASE POPS THROUGH THE TIME PERIOD               
BUT MENTIONED IN HWO.                                                           
MODELS SHOW MORE ZONAL FLOW BY THE DAY 6 TIMEFRAME...WITH SOME                  
SHORTWAVES RIPPLING THROUGH...AND DIGGING UP A LOW FROM THE PLAINS              
AND EJECTING IT TOWARD THE UPPER GREAT LAKES...WITH RIDIGING OVER               
THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST BY DAY 7. SO...GIVEN THE DECENT                          
AGREEMENT...AT THIS POINT IT LOOKS LIKE THE OPEN HOUSE...SCHEDULED              
FOR SATURDAY...SHOULD BE GOOD TO GO...PROVIDED SHORTWAVES ROTATING              
AROUND THE BASE OF THE TROUGH REMAIN SOUTH OF THE CWFA.                         
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION (FOR THE 00Z TAF ISSUANCE)...                                         
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST DUE TO LOW LEVEL DRY AIR                 
HOLDING ON FROM HIGH PRESSURE JUST TO THE NE OF LAKE SUPERIOR. LOOK             
FOR A GENERAL EAST WIND...WITH INCREASING SPEED ON SUNDAY AS THE                
HIGH SHIFTS TO THE EAST AND A TROUGH DEVELOPS FROM NORTHERN IA INTO             
SRN WI.                                                                         
&&                                                                              
.MARINE (FOR 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FCST ISSUANCE)...                               
LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BACK TO THE E AND SE LATE THIS AFTERNOON             
AS THE HIGH DRIFTS TO THE E. AS LOW PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN                  
HIGH PLAINS MOVES TOWARD THE REGION...EASTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE              
OVER LAKE SUPERIOR LATE SUN AS HIGH PRES MOVES TOWARD JAMES BAY AND             
A LOW PRES TROUGH SPREADS INTO SRN MN AND SRN WI. WINDS INTO THE                
15-25 KT RANGE ARE EXPECTED WITH THE HIGHEST WINDSPEED OVER THE FAR             
WRN LAKE FAVORED BY PRES UPSTREAM UPSTREAM PRES FALLS AND TERRAIN               
EFFECTS. A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA ON WED AS            
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LIFTS NE OF LAKE SUPERIOR.                                  
&&                                                                              
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                        
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
UPDATE...AJ                                                                     
SHORT TERM...JLB                                                                
LONG TERM...JLL                                                                 
AVIATION...AJ                                                                   
MARINE...JLB                                                                    
</pre> mi                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI                                             
802 PM EDT SAT AUG 18 2007                                                      
.AVIATION...RAIN IS MAINLY SOUTH OF M-55 SO FOR THE SHORT TERM, TVC             
WILL STAY OUT OF THE RAIN, THOUGH SPRINKLES AREN`T OUT OF THE                   
QUESTION. APN AND PLN ARE TOO FAR NORTH AT THIS POINT AS THE RAIN               
LOOKS TO BE FOLLOWING THE GFS CONFIGURATION TO THE QPF. MBL IS                  
SHOWING 10SM, AND REPORTED 0.01 LAST HOUR SO FOR THE BALANCE OF THE             
NIGHT THE GOING FORECAST LOOKS GOOD. THIS LOOKS TO BE THINKING IN               
THE PUBLIC FORECAST AS WELL THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING SO WILL KEEP THE             
BULK OF THE FORECAST DRY WITH SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES NEAR TVC. THE                
WIND LOOKS TO REMAIN UNDER 10 KNTS FOR SUNDAY AS WELL.                          
LUTZ                                                                            
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 328 PM                                                
ANOTHER NICE FALL-LIKE DAY ACROSS THE CWA WITH HIGH PRESSURE FULLY              
IN CONTROL WILL TRANSITION TO A BIT MORE TRICKY FORECAST OVERNIGHT.             
EARLY AFTERNOON ANALYSIS SHOWS A BUILDING LOW/ MID LEVEL RIDGE                  
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES...WITH SURFACE RIDGING STILL CENTERED               
ACROSS NORTHERN MICHIGAN BUT BEGINNING TO SLIP EAST EVER-SO-SLOWLY.             
RETURN FLOW ON THE BACKSIDE OF SOUTHEAST RIDGE FULLY UNDERWAY...WITH            
ONGOING BROAD ISENTROPIC ASCENT CONTINUING TO DRIVE A RATHER                    
EXPANSIVE AREA OF PRECIPITATION LIFTING THROUGH WISCONSIN. IT IS                
THIS AREA OF PRECIPITATION THAT REMAINS THE PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN            
FOR TONIGHT...NAMELY WILL IT AFFECT THE CWA AND WHAT EFFECT WILL THE            
ADDITIONAL CLOUDS HAVE ON OVERNIGHT LOWS.                                       
QUICK LOOK AT REGIONAL RADAR MOSAIC SHOWS A BIT BETTER ORGANIZED                
AREA OF PRECIP THAN SUGGESTED BY THE 12Z MODEL GUIDANCE...OWING                 
PRIMARILY TO APPARENT ADDED JET DIVERGENCE...WITH JET ENTRANCE                  
REGION SLIPPING ACROSS FAR NORTHERN MINNESOTA...AS WELL AS A                    
PRONOUNCED VORT PROGRESSING INTO WESTERN MINNESOTA PER RUC ANALYSIS/            
WATER VAPOR PICS (REMNANTS OF LAST NIGHT`S CONVECTION OVER THE                  
BLACK HILLS?). HAVE BEEN RATHER IMPRESSED AT PRECIP`S ABILITY TO                
OVERCOME DRY AIRMASS JUST TO THE WEST...WITH QUITE A FEW SITES                  
GOING FROM BKN-OVC200 DOWN TO OVC070 WITH PRECIP IN AN HOUR...ALSO              
SUGGESTING FORCED ASCENT A BIT BETTER THAN MODELS CREDIT. THIS ALL              
LEADS TO A RATHER MURKY PRECIP FORECAST FOR THE APX CWA OVERNIGHT...            
AS THINKING HAS BEEN DRY AIR WOULD WIN OUT...AND IT DOES APPEAR                 
THIS WILL WORK FOR THE NORTHERN HALF...BUT HAVE HAD TO RE-EVALUATE              
FARTHER SOUTH. OVERNIGHT...THE LIFT FOR PRECIP WILL CERTAINLY BE                
THERE...WITH DECENT 305-310K ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE (25-30 KNOTS UP                 
THE SURFACE) ON THE INCREASE AS WARM ADVECTION COMMENCES...WITH                 
DEEP LAYER (900-700MB) FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING IN PLACE AS WELL                 
GIVEN TIGHT BAROCLINIC ZONE ACROSS THE MIDWEST/LOWER GREAT LAKES.               
HOWEVER...RH PROGS ON THESE SURFACES AND SFC-H85 THETA-E ALSO SHOW              
A SHARP CUTOFF TO DEEP MOISTURE...AS BOTH CONVECTION TO THE SOUTH               
TAKES OVER TONIGHT...AND DEEP LAYER SUBSIDENCE/DRYING THIS                      
AFTERNOON AND EVENING (SFC-700MB RH LESS THAN 35%) HOLD FIRM.                   
THUS...WHILE THE OVERALL TREND OF THE DRY AIR WINNING OUT STILL                 
LOOKS OK...HAVE TRENDED POPS FARTHER NORTH THROUGH THE NIGHTTIME                
HOURS...IN LINE WITH THE 09Z SREF/12Z UKMET WHICH SEEM TO HAVE A                
BETTER HANDLE ON CURRENT PRECIP. STILL NOT TALKING ABOUT A WHOLE                
LOT OF RAIN...BUT ANY RAIN IS WELCOME AT THIS POINT. NO THREAT OF               
ANY THUNDER OWING TO LACK OF MOISTURE/INSTABILITY AS WELL AS FLAT               
MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES.                                                          
AS FOR TEMPERATURES...THESE ALSO TRICKY GIVEN UNCERTAIN DEGREE OF               
CLOUD COVER. CLOUDY CONDITIONS EXPECTED THRU THE NIGHT ACROSS THE               
SOUTH IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO FORCING/BETTER MOISTURE...WHILE MAY                
VERY WELL SEE THINGS CLEAR OUT ACROSS THE NORTH WITH BETTER                     
SUBSIDENCE. WILL HOLD NUMBERS UP ABOVE GUIDANCE VALUES ACROSS THE               
SOUTH WITH PLENTIFUL CLOUD COVER...BUT CONTINUE PREVIOUS IDEA OF                
RATHER COOL READINGS (LOWER 40S...IF NOT A FEW UPPER 30S) FAR NORTH             
GIVEN SFC RIDGE AXIS HOLDING IN WITH FLOW DECOUPLING AND RESIDUAL               
DRY AIRMASS STILL IN PLACE.                                                     
LAWRENCE                                                                        
LONG TERM...RECENT PATTERN OF TROUGHS OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC AND              
EASTERN CANADA/NEW ENGLAND...AND LOW AMPLITUDE RIDGING IN BETWEEN               
EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE PROGRESSIVE FOR THE COMING WEEK...AS                    
PACIFIC TROUGH MOVES INLAND AND HEIGHTS RISE ACROSS THE GREAT                   
LAKES. HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE AT THE ONSET OF THE FORECAST PERIOD               
TODAY WILL SLIDE EAST/NORTHEAST...ELONGATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY                    
STRETCHING FROM THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE                    
TENNESSEE VALLEY WILL SLOWLY LIFT NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT IN                  
RESPONSE. THIS WARM FRONT NOT LIKELY TO EVEN REACH LOWER MI UNTIL               
LATER MONDAY...AND EVEN THEN WILL PROBABLY HANG ALONG THE SOUTHERN              
BORDER THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEK. SINCE THIS BOUNDARY WILL             
BE THE MAIN FOCUS FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL              
DAYS...MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS FOR THE NEAR TERM PORTION OF THE                  
FORECAST WILL BASICALLY DEAL WITH HOW FAR NORTH THE THREAT FOR                  
RAIN WILL REACH.                                                                
SUNDAY...EXPECT A GOOD DEAL OF CONVECTION TO BE GOING SOUTHWEST/                
SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA TO START SUNDAY MORNING ALONG                        
FRONTOGENETICALLY ACTIVE WARM FRONTAL ZONE WHICH IS EXPECTED TO                 
EXTEND ACROSS SOUTHERN WI/FAR SOUTHERN LOWER MI (ACTUAL WARM FRONT              
WILL LIE ACROSS NORTHEAST IA/NORTHERN IL/CENTRAL IN). AXIS OF                   
DEEPER MOISTURE WILL PROBABLY REMAIN MAINLY SOUTH OF THE FORECAST               
AREA AS WELL...NAM TRIES TO BRING MOISTURE/QPF FARTHER NORTH                    
ALTHOUGH ITS PRESUMED MCS DEVELOPMENT LOOKS TO BE TOO FAR NORTH                 
(AS DOES ITS WARM FRONTAL POSITION). BUT RELUCTANT TO COMPLETELY                
JUMP ONTO ONE SPECIFIC MODEL SOLUTION GIVEN WHAT IS CURRENTLY                   
HAPPENING UPSTREAM TODAY...WILL SIMPLY EXPAND CURRENT RAIN CHANCES              
NORTH AND EAST A BIT TO ALLOW FOR A BIGGER MARGIN OF ERROR.                     
CURRENT EXPECTATION IS THAT MOST OF THE PRECIP WILL BE SOUTH OF                 
THE FORECAST AREA...ESPECIALLY IF MID LEVEL WINDS HAVE MORE OF A                
NORTHERLY COMPONENT. WILL GO DRY SUNDAY NIGHT WITH PRECIPITATION                
TO THE SOUTH ALONG THE WARM FRONT...AND POSSIBLY SOME WARM                      
ADVECTION PRECIP ACROSS WI.                                                     
MONDAY...WARM FRONT STILL WELL TO THE SOUTH...THOUGH SOME LOW/MID               
LEVEL WARM ADVECTION PUSHES INTO PARTS OF NORTHERN LOWER ALONG                  
WITH SOME ATTENDANT DEEPER MOISTURE. WILL CONTINUE LOW CHANCE POPS              
SOUTH OF M-72 TO COVER THIS. OTHERWISE MAIN ACTION REMAINS SOUTH                
OF THE STATE...WITH PERHAPS THE REMNANTS OF T.D. "ERIN" GETTING                 
SCOOPED UP AND INVOLVED WITH HAPPENINGS ALONG THE WARM FRONT                    
ACROSS THE NORTHERN OHIO VALLEY. AT THIS POINT HOWEVER THIS DOES                
NOT APPEAR TO BE A THREAT FOR NORTHERN MI.                                      
EXTENDED PERIODS (TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...HEIGHT FALLS                      
PROGRESSING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL EVENTUALLY HELP LIFT                
THE WARM FRONT INTO THE STATE IN THE LATER TUESDAY TIME FRAME...                
FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT WEDNESDAY. CURRENT RAIN CHANCES FOR                    
TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY LOOK REASONABLE GIVEN THIS PROGRESSION...THOUGH               
IF THE WARM FRONT TIMING IS SLOW AREAS FARTHER NORTH COULD END UP               
BEING DRY FOR MUCH OF TUESDAY...AND THAT IS A CONCERN THAT WILL                 
NEED TO BE WATCHED.  FORECAST GETS MORE COMPLICATED FOR THURSDAY                
AND BEYOND...ONCE COLD FRONT GOES THROUGH IT WILL EVENTUALLY SLOW               
DOWN AND PARALLEL UPPER FLOW. WHERE EXACTLY THE BOUNDARY HANGS UP               
WILL DETERMINE WHAT TYPE OF PRECIPITATION CHANCES WE END UP WITH...             
ASSUMING FRONT HANGS UP SOMEWHERE ACROSS LOWER MI/WI...WE COULD BE              
STARING AT CARRYING RAIN CHANCES EACH DAY FROM THURSDAY THROUGH                 
SATURDAY. GIVEN THE RECENT EXPANDING DROUGHT CONDITIONS NOT                     
EXACTLY COMFORTABLE WITH THAT. CURRENT FORECAST HAS RAIN CHANCES                
THURSDAY AND DRY FRIDAY...ACTUALLY THINK THE OPPOSITE MAY BE A                  
BETTER WAY TO GO AND WILL PUSH THE FORECAST IN THAT DIRECTION                   
DESPITE POTENTIAL FOR FLIP-FLOPPING OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL FORECAST              
CYCLES. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL PROBABLY AVERAGE A                 
BIT ABOVE NORMAL...MOSTLY DEPENDING ON CLOUD/PRECIPITATION                      
COVERAGE EACH DAY.                                                              
JPB                                                                             
&&                                                                              
.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                        
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</pre> mi                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
716 PM EDT SAT AUG 18 2007                                                      
UPDATED AVIATION SECTION FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE                                   
.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT AND SUNDAY)                                              
MAIN FCST CONCERNS ARE PCPN CHANCES ALONG WITH CLOUDS/TEMPS.                    
WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS INDICATED A TROF INTO THE PAC NW A RDG              
FROM THE PLAINS TO SASK AND A TROF FROM ERN CANADA INTO NRN NEW                 
ENGLAND RESULTING IN WNW FLOW THROUGH THE NRN GREAT LAKES. A WEAK               
SHORTWAVE TROUGH FROM WRN WI TO NRN IA WAS MOVING E. AT THE                     
SFC...LOW PRES WAS LOCATED OVER SRN SD WITH A WARM FRONT EXTENDING              
THROUGH CNTRL IA TO ERN MO. THE COMBINATION OF UPPER LEVEL DIV WITH             
THE RIGHT ENTRANCE OF TH 250-300 JET AND 850-700 FGEN AND ASSOCIATED            
305K-310K ISENTROPIC LIFT SUPPORTED A BROAD AREA OF RAIN FROM ERN MN            
THROUGH THE S 2/3 OF WI. TSRA WERE CONFINED TO A BAND CLOSER TO THE             
FRONT...FROM SRN MN INTO SW WI AND NRN IL. VIS IMAGERY SHOWED MID               
HIGH CLOUDS HAD THINNED OUT OVER THE NRN CWA WITH THE THICKER CLOUDS            
REMAINING NEAR THE WI BORDER. RADARS ALSO SHOWED RETURNS CREEPING               
FROM WI CLOSER TO THE BORDER BUT WITH SFC -RA REPORTS LAGGING                   
FARTHER TO THE S DUE TO THE PRESENCE OF A SUBSTANTIAL 850-650 MB DRY            
LAYER PER 18Z KSAW TAMDAR SOUNDINGS AND EARLIER KRHI SOUNDING.                  
WITH THE VERY DRY AIRMASS LINGERING TO THE NORTH AND CONFLUENT                  
MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW N OF THE AREA LEADING TO MAINLY E OR ESE SHIFT             
OF THE AFOREMENTIONED RAIN SUPPORTING DYNAMICS...ANY ADDITIONAL                 
PROGRESS OF THE PCPN INTO UPPER MI FROM TONIGHT INTO EARLY SUN WILL             
BE MARGINAL. SO...LOWER END POPS WERE CONFINED TO MAINLY THE SRN                
HALF OF MENOMINEE COUNTY.                                                       
ALTHOUGH THE MID/HIGH CLOUDS MAY REDUCE RADIATIONAL COOLING COMPARED            
TO LAST NIGHT...THEY SHOULD REMAIN THIN ENOUGH TO ALLOW INLAND TEMPS            
TO DROP INTO THE 40S. SIMILARLY...MAINLY THIN HIGH CLOUDS AGAIN                 
SUNDAY AND DECENT SUNSHINE WITH 850 MB TEMPS AROUND 9C SUPPORTS                 
MAX READINGS INTO THE LOWER 70S.                                                
.LONG TERM (SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)...                                   
STUBBORN PATTERN FINALLY BEGINS TO ERODE BY EARLY IN THE WORK                   
WEEK...NEVERTHELESS SFC HIGH AND SOME MID LEVEL RIDGING WILL SHUNT              
THE BEST DYNAMICS SOUTH OF THE CWFA...SENDING THE PRECIP CHANCES                
SOUTH WITH IT THROUGH MONDAY. BROAD TROUGHING OVER THE WESTERN CONUS            
BEGINS TO SHIFT THE RIDGE EASTWARD...ALLOWING A SURFACE LOW OVER                
WEST CENTRAL CANADA TO DEEPEN WHILE REMAINING NEARLY STATIONARY FROM            
00Z TUE TO 00Z WED. ENERGY WRAPPING AROUND THE LOW REACHES INTO                 
THE NORTH CENTRAL PLAINS AND INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES.                        
WARM FRONT IN CENTRAL WI BY TUE MORNING WARRANTS CONTINUED MENTION              
OF CHANCE POPS IN THE SOUTHERN CWFA OVERNIGHT MONDAY...ALTHOUGH                 
ENERGY COULD AGAIN REMAIN MOSTLY SOUTH OF UPPER MI UNTIL TUESDAY                
AFTERNOON. WARM AND MOIST AIR ADVECTING INTO THE CWFA ON TUESDAY                
AHEAD OF THE TRAILING COLD FRONT ALSO LEND TO THE IDEA OF POSSIBLE              
SEVERE ACTIVITY WITH SOME OF DEVELOPING THUNDERSTORMS...ALTHOUGH THE            
BEST DYNAMICS AND MOST MOISTURE SUGGESTS THE GREATEST THREAT WOULD              
BE OVER THE EASTERN MN/WESTERN WI AREA.                                         
LOOKING AT SOME PARAMETERS MORE CLOSELY FOR THE TUESDAY AFTERNOON               
THROUGH EVENING TIMEFRAME SUGGESTS THAT SHOULD THUNDERSTORMS                    
DEVELOP...SOME OF THE STORMS MAY BE SEVERE. BETWEEN 18Z TUE AND 06Z             
WED...0-6 BULK SHEAR OVER THE WESTERN COUNTIES AND LAKE SUPERIOR                
INCREASES FROM 30-35 KT TO THE 60S. AT THE SAME TIME...0-2 SHEAR                
TOPS OUT AROUND 30-40 KT WITH GOOD LOW LEVEL DIRECTIONAL SHEAR. KIMT            
HODOGRAPH SHOWS STRONG CLOCKWISE SPIN ALONG WITH AN LCL AROUND 1000             
FT AT 21Z TUE. MUCAPES INCREASE DRAMATICALLY FROM WEST TO EAST                  
ACROSS THE CWFA DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY...PEAKING AROUND 2200 J/KG            
AT KIWD IN THE AFTERNOON. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINLY IN THE TIMING/CHANCE            
OF THUNDERSTORMS...NEVERMIND IF THEY COULD BE SEVERE OVER THE                   
WEST/WEST CENTRAL...DID NOT INCREASE POPS THROUGH THE TIME PERIOD               
BUT MENTIONED IN HWO.                                                           
MODELS SHOW MORE ZONAL FLOW BY THE DAY 6 TIMEFRAME...WITH SOME                  
SHORTWAVES RIPPLING THROUGH...AND DIGGING UP A LOW FROM THE PLAINS              
AND EJECTING IT TOWARD THE UPPER GREAT LAKES...WITH RIDIGING OVER               
THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST BY DAY 7. SO...GIVEN THE DECENT                          
AGREEMENT...AT THIS POINT IT LOOKS LIKE THE OPEN HOUSE...SCHEDULED              
FOR SATURDAY...SHOULD BE GOOD TO GO...PROVIDED SHORTWAVES ROTATING              
AROUND THE BASE OF THE TROUGH REMAIN SOUTH OF THE CWFA.                         
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION (FOR THE 00Z TAF ISSUANCE)...                                         
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST DUE TO LOW LEVEL DRY AIR                 
HOLDING ON FROM HIGH PRESSURE JUST TO THE NE OF LAKE SUPERIOR. LOOK             
FOR A GENERAL EAST WIND...WITH INCREASING SPEED ON SUNDAY AS THE                
HIGH SHIFTS TO THE EAST AND A TROUGH DEVELOPS FROM NORTHERN IA INTO             
SRN WI.                                                                         
&&                                                                              
.MARINE (FOR 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FCST ISSUANCE)...                               
LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BACK TO THE E AND SE LATE THIS AFTERNOON             
AS THE HIGH DRIFTS TO THE E. AS LOW PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN                  
HIGH PLAINS MOVES TOWARD THE REGION...EASTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE              
OVER LAKE SUPERIOR LATE SUN AS HIGH PRES MOVES TOWARD JAMES BAY AND             
A LOW PRES TROUGH SPREADS INTO SRN MN AND SRN WI. WINDS INTO THE                
15-25 KT RANGE ARE EXPECTED WITH THE HIGHEST WINDSPEED OVER THE FAR             
WRN LAKE FAVORED BY PRES UPSTREAM UPSTREAM PRES FALLS AND TERRAIN               
EFFECTS. A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA ON WED AS            
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LIFTS NE OF LAKE SUPERIOR.                                  
&&                                                                              
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                        
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHORT TERM...JLB                                                                
LONG TERM...JLL                                                                 
AVIATION...AJ                                                                   
MARINE...JLB                                                                    
</pre> mi                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
430 PM EDT SAT AUG 18 2007                                                      
.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT AND SUNDAY)                                              
MAIN FCST CONCERNS ARE PCPN CHANCES ALONG WITH CLOUDS/TEMPS.                    
WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS INDICATED A TROF INTO THE PAC NW A RDG              
FROM THE PLAINS TO SASK AND A TROF FROM ERN CANADA INTO NRN NEW                 
ENGLAND RESULTING IN WNW FLOW THROUGH THE NRN GREAT LAKES. A WEAK               
SHORTWAVE TROUGH FROM WRN WI TO NRN IA WAS MOVING E. AT THE                     
SFC...LOW PRES WAS LOCATED OVER SRN SD WITH A WARM FRONT EXTENDING              
THROUGH CNTRL IA TO ERN MO. THE COMBINATION OF UPPER LEVEL DIV WITH             
THE RIGHT ENTRANCE OF TH 250-300 JET AND 850-700 FGEN AND ASSOCIATED            
305K-310K ISENTROPIC LIFT SUPPORTED A BROAD AREA OF RAIN FROM ERN MN            
THROUGH THE S 2/3 OF WI. TSRA WERE CONFINED TO A BAND CLOSER TO THE             
FRONT...FROM SRN MN INTO SW WI AND NRN IL. VIS IMAGERY SHOWED MID               
HIGH CLOUDS HAD THINNED OUT OVER THE NRN CWA WITH THE THICKER CLOUDS            
REMAINING NEAR THE WI BORDER. RADARS ALSO SHOWED RETURNS CREEPING               
FROM WI CLOSER TO THE BORDER BUT WITH SFC -RA REPORTS LAGGING                   
FARTHER TO THE S DUE TO THE PRESENCE OF A SUBSTANTIAL 850-650 MB DRY            
LAYER PER 18Z KSAW TAMDAR SOUNDINGS AND EARLIER KRHI SOUNDING.                  
WITH THE VERY DRY AIRMASS LINGERING TO THE NORTH AND CONFLUENT                  
MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW N OF THE AREA LEADING TO MAINLY E OR ESE SHIFT             
OF THE AFOREMENTIONED RAIN SUPPORTING DYNAMICS...ANY ADDITIONAL                 
PROGRESS OF THE PCPN INTO UPPER MI FROM TONIGHT INTO EARLY SUN WILL             
BE MARGINAL. SO...LOWER END POPS WERE CONFINED TO MAINLY THE SRN                
HALF OF MENOMINEE COUNTY.                                                       
ALTHOUGH THE MID/HIGH CLOUDS MAY REDUCE RADIATIONAL COOLING COMPARED            
TO LAST NIGHT...THEY SHOULD REMAIN THIN ENOUGH TO ALLOW INLAND TEMPS            
TO DROP INTO THE 40S. SIMILARLY...MAINLY THIN HIGH CLOUDS AGAIN                 
SUNDAY AND DECENT SUNSHINE WITH 850 MB TEMPS AROUND 9C SUPPORTS                 
MAX READINGS INTO THE LOWER 70S.                                                
.LONG TERM (SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)...                                   
STUBBORN PATTERN FINALLY BEGINS TO ERODE BY EARLY IN THE WORK                   
WEEK...NEVERTHELESS SFC HIGH AND SOME MID LEVEL RIDGING WILL SHUNT              
THE BEST DYNAMICS SOUTH OF THE CWFA...SENDING THE PRECIP CHANCES                
SOUTH WITH IT THROUGH MONDAY. BROAD TROUGHING OVER THE WESTERN CONUS            
BEGINS TO SHIFT THE RIDGE EASTWARD...ALLOWING A SURFACE LOW OVER                
WEST CENTRAL CANADA TO DEEPEN WHILE REMAINING NEARLY STATIONARY FROM            
00Z TUE TO 00Z WED. ENERGY WRAPPING AROUND THE LOW REACHES INTO                 
THE NORTH CENTRAL PLAINS AND INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES.                        
WARM FRONT IN CENTRAL WI BY TUE MORNING WARRANTS CONTINUED MENTION              
OF CHANCE POPS IN THE SOUTHERN CWFA OVERNIGHT MONDAY...ALTHOUGH                 
ENERGY COULD AGAIN REMAIN MOSTLY SOUTH OF UPPER MI UNTIL TUESDAY                
AFTERNOON. WARM AND MOIST AIR ADVECTING INTO THE CWFA ON TUESDAY                
AHEAD OF THE TRAILING COLD FRONT ALSO LEND TO THE IDEA OF POSSIBLE              
SEVERE ACTIVITY WITH SOME OF DEVELOPING THUNDERSTORMS...ALTHOUGH THE            
BEST DYNAMICS AND MOST MOISTURE SUGGESTS THE GREATEST THREAT WOULD              
BE OVER THE EASTERN MN/WESTERN WI AREA.                                         
LOOKING AT SOME PARAMETERS MORE CLOSELY FOR THE TUESDAY AFTERNOON               
THROUGH EVENING TIMEFRAME SUGGESTS THAT SHOULD THUNDERSTORMS                    
DEVELOP...SOME OF THE STORMS MAY BE SEVERE. BETWEEN 18Z TUE AND 06Z             
WED...0-6 BULK SHEAR OVER THE WESTERN COUNTIES AND LAKE SUPERIOR                
INCREASES FROM 30-35 KT TO THE 60S. AT THE SAME TIME...0-2 SHEAR                
TOPS OUT AROUND 30-40 KT WITH GOOD LOW LEVEL DIRECTIONAL SHEAR. KIMT            
HODOGRAPH SHOWS STRONG CLOCKWISE SPIN ALONG WITH AN LCL AROUND 1000             
FT AT 21Z TUE. MUCAPES INCREASE DRAMATICALLY FROM WEST TO EAST                  
ACROSS THE CWFA DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY...PEAKING AROUND 2200 J/KG            
AT KIWD IN THE AFTERNOON. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINLY IN THE TIMING/CHANCE            
OF THUNDERSTORMS...NEVERMIND IF THEY COULD BE SEVERE OVER THE                   
WEST/WEST CENTRAL...DID NOT INCREASE POPS THROUGH THE TIME PERIOD               
BUT MENTIONED IN HWO.                                                           
MODELS SHOW MORE ZONAL FLOW BY THE DAY 6 TIMEFRAME...WITH SOME                  
SHORTWAVES RIPPLING THROUGH...AND DIGGING UP A LOW FROM THE PLAINS              
AND EJECTING IT TOWARD THE UPPER GREAT LAKES...WITH RIDIGING OVER               
THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST BY DAY 7. SO...GIVEN THE DECENT                          
AGREEMENT...AT THIS POINT IT LOOKS LIKE THE OPEN HOUSE...SCHEDULED              
FOR SATURDAY...SHOULD BE GOOD TO GO...PROVIDED SHORTWAVES ROTATING              
AROUND THE BASE OF THE TROUGH REMAIN SOUTH OF THE CWFA.                         
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION (FOR THE 18Z TAF ISSUANCE)...                                         
LIGHT WINDS AND VFR CONDITIONS TO PERSIST AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES            
TO DOMINATE THE REGION. SE TO E WINDS WILL DEVELOP TONIGHT AND                  
INCREASE SUNDAY AS THE HIGH SHIFTS TO THE EAST AND A TROUGH DEVELOPS            
FROM NORTHERN IA INTO SRN WI.                                                   
&&                                                                              
.MARINE (FOR 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FCST ISSUANCE)...                               
LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BACK TO THE E AND SE LATE THIS AFTERNOON             
AS THE HIGH DRIFTS TO THE E. AS LOW PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN                  
HIGH PLAINS MOVES TOWARD THE REGION...EASTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE              
OVER LAKE SUPERIOR LATE SUN AS HIGH PRES MOVES TOWARD JAMES BAY AND             
A LOW PRES TROUGH SPREADS INTO SRN MN AND SRN WI. WINDS INTO THE                
15-25 KT RANGE ARE EXPECTED WITH THE HIGHEST WINDSPEED OVER THE FAR             
WRN LAKE FAVORED BY PRES UPSTREAM UPSTREAM PRES FALLS AND TERRAIN               
EFFECTS. A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA ON WED AS            
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LIFTS NE OF LAKE SUPERIOR.                                  
&&                                                                              
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                        
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHORT TERM...JLB                                                                
LONG TERM...JLL                                                                 
MARINE/AVIATION...JLB                                                           
</pre> mi                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI                                             
328 PM EDT SAT AUG 18 2007                                                      
.DISCUSSION...ANOTHER NICE FALL-LIKE DAY ACROSS THE CWA WITH HIGH               
PRESSURE FULLY IN CONTROL WILL TRANSITION TO A BIT MORE TRICKY                  
FORECAST OVERNIGHT. EARLY AFTERNOON ANALYSIS SHOWS A BUILDING LOW/              
MID LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES...WITH SURFACE RIDGING              
STILL CENTERED ACROSS NORTHERN MICHIGAN BUT BEGINNING TO SLIP EAST              
EVER-SO-SLOWLY. RETURN FLOW ON THE BACKSIDE OF SOUTHEAST RIDGE                  
FULLY UNDERWAY...WITH ONGOING BROAD ISENTROPIC ASCENT CONTINUING                
TO DRIVE A RATHER EXPANSIVE AREA OF PRECIPITATION LIFTING THROUGH               
WISCONSIN. IT IS THIS AREA OF PRECIPITATION THAT REMAINS THE                    
PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN FOR TONIGHT...NAMELY WILL IT AFFECT THE                
CWA AND WHAT EFFECT WILL THE ADDITIONAL CLOUDS HAVE ON OVERNIGHT                
LOWS.                                                                           
QUICK LOOK AT REGIONAL RADAR MOSAIC SHOWS A BIT BETTER ORGANIZED                
AREA OF PRECIP THAN SUGGESTED BY THE 12Z MODEL GUIDANCE...OWING                 
PRIMARILY TO APPARENT ADDED JET DIVERGENCE...WITH JET ENTRANCE                  
REGION SLIPPING ACROSS FAR NORTHERN MINNESOTA...AS WELL AS A                    
PRONOUNCED VORT PROGRESSING INTO WESTERN MINNESOTA PER RUC ANALYSIS/            
WATER VAPOR PICS (REMNANTS OF LAST NIGHT`S CONVECTION OVER THE                  
BLACK HILLS?). HAVE BEEN RATHER IMPRESSED AT PRECIP`S ABILITY TO                
OVERCOME DRY AIRMASS JUST TO THE WEST...WITH QUITE A FEW SITES                  
GOING FROM BKN-OVC200 DOWN TO OVC070 WITH PRECIP IN AN HOUR...ALSO              
SUGGESTING FORCED ASCENT A BIT BETTER THAN MODELS CREDIT. THIS ALL              
LEADS TO A RATHER MURKY PRECIP FORECAST FOR THE APX CWA OVERNIGHT...            
AS THINKING HAS BEEN DRY AIR WOULD WIN OUT...AND IT DOES APPEAR                 
THIS WILL WORK FOR THE NORTHERN HALF...BUT HAVE HAD TO RE-EVALUATE              
FARTHER SOUTH. OVERNIGHT...THE LIFT FOR PRECIP WILL CERTAINLY BE                
THERE...WITH DECENT 305-310K ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE (25-30 KNOTS UP                 
THE SURFACE) ON THE INCREASE AS WARM ADVECTION COMMENCES...WITH                 
DEEP LAYER (900-700MB) FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING IN PLACE AS WELL                 
GIVEN TIGHT BAROCLINIC ZONE ACROSS THE MIDWEST/LOWER GREAT LAKES.               
HOWEVER...RH PROGS ON THESE SURFACES AND SFC-H85 THETA-E ALSO SHOW              
A SHARP CUTOFF TO DEEP MOISTURE...AS BOTH CONVECTION TO THE SOUTH               
TAKES OVER TONIGHT...AND DEEP LAYER SUBSIDENCE/DRYING THIS                      
AFTERNOON AND EVENING (SFC-700MB RH LESS THAN 35%) HOLD FIRM.                   
THUS...WHILE THE OVERALL TREND OF THE DRY AIR WINNING OUT STILL                 
LOOKS OK...HAVE TRENDED POPS FARTHER NORTH THROUGH THE NIGHTTIME                
HOURS...IN LINE WITH THE 09Z SREF/12Z UKMET WHICH SEEM TO HAVE A                
BETTER HANDLE ON CURRENT PRECIP. STILL NOT TALKING ABOUT A WHOLE                
LOT OF RAIN...BUT ANY RAIN IS WELCOME AT THIS POINT. NO THREAT OF               
ANY THUNDER OWING TO LACK OF MOISTURE/INSTABILITY AS WELL AS FLAT               
MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES.                                                          
AS FOR TEMPERATURES...THESE ALSO TRICKY GIVEN UNCERTAIN DEGREE OF               
CLOUD COVER. CLOUDY CONDITIONS EXPECTED THRU THE NIGHT ACROSS THE               
SOUTH IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO FORCING/BETTER MOISTURE...WHILE MAY                
VERY WELL SEE THINGS CLEAR OUT ACROSS THE NORTH WITH BETTER                     
SUBSIDENCE. WILL HOLD NUMBERS UP ABOVE GUIDANCE VALUES ACROSS THE               
SOUTH WITH PLENTIFUL CLOUD COVER...BUT CONTINUE PREVIOUS IDEA OF                
RATHER COOL READINGS (LOWER 40S...IF NOT A FEW UPPER 30S) FAR NORTH             
GIVEN SFC RIDGE AXIS HOLDING IN WITH FLOW DECOUPLING AND RESIDUAL               
DRY AIRMASS STILL IN PLACE.                                                     
LAWRENCE                                                                        
LONG TERM...RECENT PATTERN OF TROUGHS OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC AND              
EASTERN CANADA/NEW ENGLAND...AND LOW AMPLITUDE RIDGING IN BETWEEN               
EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE PROGRESSIVE FOR THE COMING WEEK...AS                    
PACIFIC TROUGH MOVES INLAND AND HEIGHTS RISE ACROSS THE GREAT                   
LAKES. HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE AT THE ONSET OF THE FORECAST PERIOD               
TODAY WILL SLIDE EAST/NORTHEAST...ELONGATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY                    
STRETCHING FROM THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE                    
TENNESSEE VALLEY WILL SLOWLY LIFT NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT IN                  
RESPONSE. THIS WARM FRONT NOT LIKELY TO EVEN REACH LOWER MI UNTIL               
LATER MONDAY...AND EVEN THEN WILL PROBABLY HANG ALONG THE SOUTHERN              
BORDER THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEK. SINCE THIS BOUNDARY WILL             
BE THE MAIN FOCUS FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL              
DAYS...MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS FOR THE NEAR TERM PORTION OF THE                  
FORECAST WILL BASICALLY DEAL WITH HOW FAR NORTH THE THREAT FOR                  
RAIN WILL REACH.                                                                
SUNDAY...EXPECT A GOOD DEAL OF CONVECTION TO BE GOING SOUTHWEST/                
SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA TO START SUNDAY MORNING ALONG                        
FRONTOGENETICALLY ACTIVE WARM FRONTAL ZONE WHICH IS EXPECTED TO                 
EXTEND ACROSS SOUTHERN WI/FAR SOUTHERN LOWER MI (ACTUAL WARM FRONT              
WILL LIE ACROSS NORTHEAST IA/NORTHERN IL/CENTRAL IN). AXIS OF                   
DEEPER MOISTURE WILL PROBABLY REMAIN MAINLY SOUTH OF THE FORECAST               
AREA AS WELL...NAM TRIES TO BRING MOISTURE/QPF FARTHER NORTH                    
ALTHOUGH ITS PRESUMED MCS DEVELOPMENT LOOKS TO BE TOO FAR NORTH                 
(AS DOES ITS WARM FRONTAL POSITION). BUT RELUCTANT TO COMPLETELY                
JUMP ONTO ONE SPECIFIC MODEL SOLUTION GIVEN WHAT IS CURRENTLY                   
HAPPENING UPSTREAM TODAY...WILL SIMPLY EXPAND CURRENT RAIN CHANCES              
NORTH AND EAST A BIT TO ALLOW FOR A BIGGER MARGIN OF ERROR.                     
CURRENT EXPECTATION IS THAT MOST OF THE PRECIP WILL BE SOUTH OF                 
THE FORECAST AREA...ESPECIALLY IF MID LEVEL WINDS HAVE MORE OF A                
NORTHERLY COMPONENT. WILL GO DRY SUNDAY NIGHT WITH PRECIPITATION                
TO THE SOUTH ALONG THE WARM FRONT...AND POSSIBLY SOME WARM                      
ADVECTION PRECIP ACROSS WI.                                                     
MONDAY...WARM FRONT STILL WELL TO THE SOUTH...THOUGH SOME LOW/MID               
LEVEL WARM ADVECTION PUSHES INTO PARTS OF NORTHERN LOWER ALONG                  
WITH SOME ATTENDANT DEEPER MOISTURE. WILL CONTINUE LOW CHANCE POPS              
SOUTH OF M-72 TO COVER THIS. OTHERWISE MAIN ACTION REMAINS SOUTH                
OF THE STATE...WITH PERHAPS THE REMNANTS OF T.D. "ERIN" GETTING                 
SCOOPED UP AND INVOLVED WITH HAPPENINGS ALONG THE WARM FRONT                    
ACROSS THE NORTHERN OHIO VALLEY. AT THIS POINT HOWEVER THIS DOES                
NOT APPEAR TO BE A THREAT FOR NORTHERN MI.                                      
EXTENDED PERIODS (TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...HEIGHT FALLS                      
PROGRESSING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL EVENTUALLY HELP LIFT                
THE WARM FRONT INTO THE STATE IN THE LATER TUESDAY TIME FRAME...                
FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT WEDNESDAY. CURRENT RAIN CHANCES FOR                    
TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY LOOK REASONABLE GIVEN THIS PROGRESSION...THOUGH               
IF THE WARM FRONT TIMING IS SLOW AREAS FARTHER NORTH COULD END UP               
BEING DRY FOR MUCH OF TUESDAY...AND THAT IS A CONCERN THAT WILL                 
NEED TO BE WATCHED.  FORECAST GETS MORE COMPLICATED FOR THURSDAY                
AND BEYOND...ONCE COLD FRONT GOES THROUGH IT WILL EVENTUALLY SLOW               
DOWN AND PARALLEL UPPER FLOW. WHERE EXACTLY THE BOUNDARY HANGS UP               
WILL DETERMINE WHAT TYPE OF PRECIPITATION CHANCES WE END UP WITH...             
ASSUMING FRONT HANGS UP SOMEWHERE ACROSS LOWER MI/WI...WE COULD BE              
STARING AT CARRYING RAIN CHANCES EACH DAY FROM THURSDAY THROUGH                 
SATURDAY. GIVEN THE RECENT EXPANDING DROUGHT CONDITIONS NOT                     
EXACTLY COMFORTABLE WITH THAT. CURRENT FORECAST HAS RAIN CHANCES                
THURSDAY AND DRY FRIDAY...ACTUALLY THINK THE OPPOSITE MAY BE A                  
BETTER WAY TO GO AND WILL PUSH THE FORECAST IN THAT DIRECTION                   
DESPITE POTENTIAL FOR FLIP-FLOPPING OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL FORECAST              
CYCLES. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL PROBABLY AVERAGE A                 
BIT ABOVE NORMAL...MOSTLY DEPENDING ON CLOUD/PRECIPITATION                      
COVERAGE EACH DAY.                                                              
JPB                                                                             
&&                                                                              
.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                        
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</pre> mi                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR AVIATION                                 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
124 AM EDT SAT AUG 18 2007                                                      
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS INDICATED A TROUGH OFF THE PAC NW                   
COAST...A RIDGE FROM THE SRN CONUS TO ALBERTA/SASK...AND A TROUGH               
OVER ERN CANADA RESULTING IN NW FLOW THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT LAKES.             
AT THE SFC...HIGH PRES FROM MANITOBA AND WRN ONTARIO WAS BUILDING               
INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY AND WRN GREAT LAKES BRINGING GUSTY (15-30              
MPH) N TO NW WINDS THROUGH LAKE SUPERIOR INTO UPPER MI. VIS LOOP                
SHOWED CLEARING OVER MOST OF LAKE SUPERIOR BUT ABUNDANT DIURNALLY               
ENHANCED STRATOCU OVER NRN UPPER MI AND N OF LAKE SUPERIOR AS CAA               
HAS BROUGHT 850 MB TEMPS TO NEAR 2C. SFC DEWPOINTS OVER THE AREA                
WERE GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S F.                                 
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT AND SAT)...                                                
THE MDLS SUGGEST THAT THE GRADIENT WILL SLACKEN QUICKLY THIS EVENING            
ALLOWING WINDS TO DECOUPLE AFTER MIDNIGHT. WITH ONLY LIGHT WINDS OFF            
OF LAKE SUPERIOR AND DECENT SUBSIDENCE OVER THE AREA SKIES SHOULD               
CLEAR OUT OVER THE AREA...ESPECIALLY WEST. WITH VERY FAVORABLE                  
RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS...MIN READINGS SHOULD DROP INTO THE              
MID TO UPPER 30S INLAND CENTRAL AND WEST. SO...SOME PATCHY FROST MAY            
BE POSSIBLE IN SHELTERED LOW-LYING AREAS.                                       
WITH 850 MB TEMPS STILL IN THE 4C-6C RANGE EARLY IN THE DAY...SCT SC            
WILL AGAIN DEVELOP BY LATE MORNING. SOME INCREASE IN MID/HIGH CLOUDS            
IS ALSO EXPECTED AS 315K-320K ISENTROPIC LIFT DEVELOPS AHEAD OF A               
WARM FRONT OVER MN. TEMPS SHOULD REBOUND IN MID 60S N TO AROUND 70              
SOUTH AS WEAK WAA PUSHES H8 TEMPS INTO THE 5C-8C RANGE.                         
.LONG TERM (SAT NIGHT THRU FRI)...                                              
SAT NIGHT/SUN...WARM FRONT DEVELOPING FROM THE CNTRL PLAINS INTO THE            
OHIO VALLEY SAT NIGHT/SUN WILL BECOME VERY ACTIVE WITH SHRA/TSRA.               
NAM IS AT THE NRN EXTREME SHOWING SFC WARM FRONT SETTING UP ACROSS              
SRN WI. GFS/UKMET/ECMWF CONSENSUS IS FOR FRONT TO RUN FROM                      
SD/NEBRASKA TO INDIANA...LIKELY JUST A BIT TOO FAR S TO SUPPORT SHRA            
CHANCES IN UPPER MI. THERE HAS BEEN A NOTABLE TREND IN THE LAST 4               
GFS RUNS FOR FRONT TO BE FARTHER S...AND THIS MAKES SENSE WITH TROF             
HANGING ON OVER ERN CANADA WHICH WOULD MAINTAIN MORE OF A NW FLOW               
INTO THE UPPER LAKES. IT ALSO SUPPORTS MORE PERSISTENT SFC HIGH PRES            
JUST TO THE NE OF LAKE SUPERIOR TO PROVIDE A FEED OF DRY LOW-LEVEL              
AIR FROM THE E. GIVEN THE GFS/UKMET/ECMWF CONSENSUS...GFS TREND                 
FARTHER S AND LIKELIHOOD THAT CONVECTIVE COMPLEXES WILL REINFORCE               
AND MAINTAIN SFC FRONTAL POSITION FARTHER S...PLAN TO CONTINUE WITH             
A DRY FCST SAT NIGHT THRU SUN NIGHT. WILL NEED TO WATCH THE FAR SRN             
FCST AREA THOUGH FOR POSSIBLE LATER ADDITION OF POPS GIVEN CLOSE                
PROXIMITY OF PCPN N OF WARM FRONT. AS FOR TEMPS...WILL STRONGLY LEAN            
TOWARD THE COOLER GFS GUIDANCE FOR SAT NIGHT WITH THICKER CLOUDS                
REMAINING SW OF HERE. THE WARMER GFS GUIDANCE LOOKS ACCEPTABLE FOR              
SUN...AGAIN WITH THICKER CLOUDS REMAINING SW AND S OF HERE.                     
FCST BECOMES MORE UNCERTAIN MON AS MODEL DIFFERENCES ARISE WITH                 
REGARD TO ENERGY EJECTING E FROM TROF MOVING INLAND FROM THE W COAST            
ON SUN. GFS IS INSISTENT IN PUSHING ENERGY RAPIDLY E ACROSS THE                 
PLAINS INTO THE GREAT LAKES WHICH RESULTS IN WARM FRONT/SFC TROF                
CROSSING UPPER MI LATE MON NIGHT/EARLY TUE. UKMET SUPPORTS THE ECMWF            
WITH SHARPER RIDGING BEING MAINTAINED DOWNSTREAM OF TROF MOVING                 
INLAND FROM THE W COAST...BUT 12Z ECMWF IS BEGINNING TO SHOW A TREND            
TOWARD THE GFS. WILL THUS HALF STEP TOWARD THE GFS AND SIMPLY BUMP              
UP TIMING OF SHRA/TSRA CHANCES TO MON NIGHT/EARLY TUE. MAY NEED TO              
BRING POPS INTO THE FCST AREA DURING THE DAY MON IF MODELS MOVE INTO            
AGREEMENT ON THIS INCREASINGLY FASTER TIMING.                                   
TUE-FRI...GFS/CANADIAN/UKMET/ECMWF SHOWED RATHER SIGNIFICANT                    
DIFFERENCES DURING THIS PERIOD REGARDING TIMING OF SYSTEMS ACROSS               
THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION...BUT TODAYS 12Z RUNS HAVE MOVED INTO              
MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT. SFC WARM FRONT/TROF DISCUSSED IN PREVIOUS                
PARAGRAPH SHOULD SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA TUE PER CONSENSUS OF MEDIUM              
RANGE MODELS...AND WILL THUS MAINTAIN CHC POPS FOR TUE. AGREEEMENT              
HAS IMPROVED WITH TIMING OF COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH MAIN TROF                
SHIFTING ACROSS SCNTRL CANADA TOWARD HUDSON BAY MIDWEEK. FROPA                  
SHOULD OCCUR DURING THE LATE AFTN/EVENING HRS. WHILE THERE SHOULD BE            
A BREAK IN SHRA CHANCES TUE NIGHT/EARLY WED...CONFIDENCE IN TIMING              
FEATURES IS NOT SUFFICIENT TO EXPLICITLY SHOW THAT IN THE GRIDS                 
RIGHT NOW. OPTED TO DRY THINGS OUT FOR THU AND KEPT FCST DRY FOR THE            
NEW DAY 7 (FRI) EVEN THOUGH RECENT GFS RUNS SUGGEST ANOTHER                     
SHORTWAVE HEADING TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES. SO FOR THIS 7 DAY FCST                
PERIOD...IF WARM FRONT/TROF IS NOT ACTIVE WHEN IT PASSES TUE...                 
WIDESPREAD/SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS NOT LIKELY AS FORCING WITH COLD              
FROPA WED LOOKS WEAK DUE TO LIMITED HEIGHT FALLS.                               
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION (FOR THE 06Z TAF ISSUANCE)...                                         
LIGHT WINDS AND VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL AS HIGH PRESSSURE                     
CONTINUES TO BUILD INTO THE REGION.                                             
&&                                                                              
.MARINE (FOR 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FCST ISSUANCE)...                               
CAA AND A TIGHT GRADIENT HAVE KEPT WINDS IN THE 15-25 KT RANGE OVER             
THE ERN LAKE WITH GUSTS TO 30 KT AND PUSHED WAVES INTO THE 7 TO 10              
FOOT RANGE. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH TONIGHT AS HIGH PRES                  
BUILDS INTO THE REGION FROM THE NW. E TO SE WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM            
SUN INTO MON AS LOW PRES DEVELOPS IN THE PLAINS AND MOVES INTO THE              
UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.                                                       
&&                                                                              
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                        
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHORT TERM...JLB                                                                
LONG TERM...ROLFSON                                                             
MARINE...JLB                                                                    
AVIATION...KC                                                                   
</pre> mi                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI                                             
1030 AM EDT FRI AUG 17 2007                                                     
.UPDATE...ONGOING FORECAST STILL APPEARS ON TARGET...WITH ONLY MINOR            
CHANGES ANTICIPATED. MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS INCLUDE LAKE EFFECT RAIN            
CHANCES...ALONG WITH FIRE WEATHER DANGER.                                       
CAA PATTERN CONTINUES...WITH 850 MB TEMPS POISED TO BOTTOM OUT +2-3C            
ACROSS E UPPER AND AROUND +4C AROUND FAR NRN LOWER EARLY THIS                   
AFTERNOON. COUPLED WITH LAKE TEMPS OF +18-22C...LAKE CLOUDS HAVE                
DEVELOPED AS EXPECTED -- WITH EVEN A FEW LIGHT LAKE INDUCED RAIN                
SHOWERS OVER ERN UPPER. SURFACE HIGH WILL BUILD INTO THE WRN GREAT              
LAKES...AS 500 MB SUPPORT/TROUGH SHIFTS E OF REGION THIS AFTERNOON.             
THIS WILL CAUSE LOW LEVEL FLOW TO BECOME INCREASINGLY ANTI-CYCLONIC             
AND FOR 850-700 MB TEMPS TO MODERATE SLIGHTLY AFTER 18Z (WITH                   
STRENGTHENING MID LEVEL INVERSION NOTED ON MODEL SOUNDINGS AFTER                
16-18Z). AS A RESULT...EXPECT SHOWER CHANCES ACROSS THE FAR N TO                
DWINDLE DURING THE AFTERNOON PER CURRENT FORECAST.                              
WITH MIXING OVER LAND LIKELY TO DOMINATE...MAINLY SUNNY SKIES MAY               
PERSIST ALONG IMMEDIATE LAKE MI SHORELINE S OF LELAND THIS AFTERNOON            
(IN SPITE OF OVER-WATER INSTABILITY). OTHERWISE...DIURNAL CLOUDS                
WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP DURING THE LATE MORNING WITH GENERALLY                 
PARTLY SUNNY SKIES EXPECTED.                                                    
MARINE CONCERNS. AS PREVIOUSLY DISCUSSED (IN EARLIER AFD) WATERSPOUT            
CHANCES NOT GREAT...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT RISK ACROSS E                
UPPER AND NE LOWER COASTAL WATERS INTO EARLY AFTERNOON. SMALL CRAFT             
ADVISORIES WILL ALSO CONTINUE.                                                  
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS CONTINUE. SURFACE TEMPS HAVE QUICKLY RISEN                
THIS MORNING...SUGGESTING WE MAY NEED TO NUDGE HIGHS UPWARD                     
SLIGHTLY. HOWEVER...SHALLOWNESS OF SURFACE-BASED INVERSION ON GRB               
SOUNDING...TOGETHER WITH PROGGED 850 MB TEMPS...SUGGESTS THAT TEMPS             
WILL LIKELY LEVEL OUT EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WITHOUT GETTING OUT OF               
HAND -- I.E. HIGHS IN THE 60S FAR N AND LOWER-MID 70S SOUTH. 900-800            
MB WINDS AND STRONG VERTICAL MIXING WILL SUPPORT OCCASIONAL GUSTS OF            
20-30 MPH. WILL NEED TO KEEP CLOSE EYE ON DEW POINTS. MOISTURE                  
CONTRIBUTION FROM LAKE MAY KEEP RH/S SLIGHTLY MORE ELEVATED...WITH              
RH/S REMAINING GENERALLY ABOVE 25-30 PCT RANGE. IT/LL BE CLOSE...AND            
WE/LL CONTINUE TO MONITOR. IN THE MEANTIME...WILL CONTINUE TO                   
HIGHLIGHT ELEVATED FIRE DANGER IN HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.                    
SMITH                                                                           
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 508 AM                                                
SFC/RUC/SATELLITE/RADAR AND UPPER AIR ANALYSIS SHOWING UPPER TROUGH             
ACROSS THE NE CONUS WITH WELL DEFINED SHORTWAVE TROUGHS EMBEDDED                
WITHIN. THE MAIN SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED SFC TROUGH/COLDER AIR                 
PUNCH AND DEEPER H8-H7 MOISTURE REMAINS POISED ACROSS SOUTHERN                  
ONTARIO...A BIT SLOWER THAN ORIGINALLY ANTICIPATED. NEVERTHELESS...             
WE HAVE HAD SOME SCT070-090 CLOUD TRYING TO DEVELOP ACROSS EASTERN              
LAKE SUPERIOR...WHERE H8 TEMPS HAVE DROPPED INTO THE +7C RANGE.                 
SKIES WERE OTHERWISE CLEAR WITH A WIDE RANGE IN SFC TEMPERATURE.                
OVER THE WATER...READINGS WERE IN THE LOWER 60S...WHILE INTERIOR LOW            
LYING AREAS WHERE WINDS HAVE DECOUPLED...WERE IN THE LOWER 40S.                 
FORECAST CONCERNS...SYNOPTIC/LAKE EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS CHANCES TODAY             
ALONG WITH WATERSPOUT CHANCE AND WINDS WITH A NEARSHORE EMPHASIS.               
THEN THE FOCUS TURNS TO CHANCES FOR RAIN AGAIN WITH WARM FRONT                  
ARRIVING OVER THE WEEKEND.                                                      
TODAY...OVERALL...OUTSIDE OF THE GFS...MODELS STILL DO NOT SEEM TO              
BE HANDLING THE STRENGTH OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH IN NC ONTARIO VERY             
WELL...EVEN THE RUC. THIS WELL DEFINED FEATURE IS STILL EXPECTED TO             
DROP SE AND THROUGH SE ONTARIO AND INTO NEW YORK STATE TONIGHT. WITH            
THIS FEATURE...A SFC TROUGH WILL DROP THROUGH EASTERN UPPER BY                  
MIDDAY AND GRAZE THE NE LOWER NEARSHORE AREAS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.             
ALONG WITH THIS SFC TROUGH...ARRIVING WILL BE A NARROW BAND OF >70%             
H8-H7 MOISTURE...AND COLD ADVECTION THROUGH 500MB. H8 TEMPS WILL                
DROP TO AROUND +2C IN WHITEFISH BAY...TO +5C IN THE FAR SRN CWA.                
THIS WILL RESULT IN DELTA T`S AROUND 17C-18C.THIS OVER LAKE                     
INSTABILITY IN CONJUNCTION WITH BAND OF DEEPER MOISTURE AND LIFT                
FROM SFC TROUGH AND CORRIDOR OF WEAK TO MODEST H8-H5 -DIVQ SHOULD               
BE ABLE TO PROVIDE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS AS FAR              
SOUTH AS M-68 IN NRN LOWER. THE ADDED LAKE INFLUENCE COULD RESULT IN            
A BETTER CHANCE IMMEDIATELY DOWNWIND OF WHITEFISH BAY AND PERHAPS               
LAKE MICHIGAN/NRN LAKE HURON. THROWN IN LCL`S AROUND 3.5KFT WITH AN             
EXPECTED LOBE OF H8 VORTICITY...AND ALL OF THE ABOVE ATMOSPHERIC                
PARAMETERS...AND WE HAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF WATERSPOUTS TODAY FOR               
WHITEFISH BAY AND NRN LAKE HURON. THINGS GOING AGAINST WATERSPOUTS              
ARE THE MARGINAL RH AND THE WARMING SEEN ABOVE 750MB THIS                       
AFTERNOON...PLUS THE RELATIVELY STRONG H8 WIND AT 30KTS. THE LATTER             
WILL ALSO LEAD TO RATHER GUSTY CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP TODAY             
OVER THE LAKES. HAVE THROWN EVERYONE INTO A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR            
TODAY...WITH A FEW GALE GUSTS POSSIBLE IN COASTAL CONVERGENCE                   
REGIMES INTO THIS EVENING. AFTER COORDINATION WITH SURROUNDING                  
OFFICES AND ENVIRONMENT CANADA...DECIDED AGAINST THE GALES...AND                
RATHER IN FAVOR OF THE CHANCE FOR WATERSPOUTS. MODELS DO SUGGEST                
THAT DRIER AIR WILL FILTER IN BEHIND THE SFC TROUGH...WHILE                     
INVERSION HEIGHTS SUBSIDE WITH WARMING ALOFT. IF THE LAKE EFFECT                
RAIN SHOWERS COULD DEVELOP...WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE THEM                 
PERSIST INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS...EARLY AFTERNOON.                             
TONIGHT...CONTINUED WARMING ALOFT...SUBSIDING INVERSION HEIGHTS AND             
DRY AIR (< 25%) ARRIVING THROUGH THE EVENING...LEADS TO A GRADUAL               
CLEARING FOR THE NIGHT. BUT AGAIN...MAYBE CLOUDS COULD HANG ON A BIT            
LONGER INTO THE EVENING AND DAY CREW WILL NEED TO ASSESS THIS (NOT              
UNCOMMON FOR LAKE EFFECT TO HOLD OUT LONGER THAN ANTICIPATED). FOR              
NOW...WILL RIDE CURRENT FORECAST OF MOSTLY CLEAR. WINDS WILL SUBSIDE            
AS A SFC HIGH DROPS IN RIGHT OVER THE TOP OF NRN MICHIGAN. WILL END             
MARINE HEADLINES AT 11PM...AND COULD EASILY SEE LOWS DIPPING INTO               
THE UPPER 30S AND LOWER 40S BY DAYBREAK.                                        
SATURDAY...AIR MASS WILL BE QUITE DRY WITH H8-H5 MOISTURE AT 25% OR             
LESS. SFC HIGH WILL DRIFT EAST LATE IN THE DAY...WHILE MODELS                   
CONTINUE TO INSIST THAT HIGHER LEVEL MOISTURE WILL TRY AND SQUEAK               
INTO THE GTV BAY REGION BY LATE AFTERNOON...WELL AHEAD OF A WARM                
FRONT THAT IS EXPECTED TO BE WELL SOUTH OF US...ACROSS IOWA/NRN IL.             
CAN SEE NO CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION.                                            
SATURDAY NIGHT ONWARD...THE SFC HIGH WILL BE STUBBORN TO LEAVE                  
US...BUT A SLOW DRIFT EASTWARD THROUGH MONDAY IS ANTICIPATED. THE               
QUESTION IS...HOW LONG WILL IT BE BEFORE...OR WILL THE MOISTURE EVER            
BECOME DEEP ENOUGH WITH WAA...TO DEVELOP A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS               
FOR OUR SRN ZONES...SOUTH OF M-72. MID LEVEL HEIGHTS SLOWLY RISE                
THROUGH THE PERIOD...SO I CAN BELIEVE A SLOW PROGRESSION NORTH                  
THROUGH TIME WITH THE WARM FRONT. HOWEVER...BASED ON THE LOW LEVEL              
HIGH PRESSURE AXIS OVER THE GULF...AND THE FACT THAT THE MODELS MAY             
BE RIDDLED WITH CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK...HAVE QUESTIONS ABOUT THE                  
NORTHWARD EXTENT OF MODEL FORECAST PRECIPITATION BEGINNING SATURDAY             
NIGHT. AGREE WITH PREVIOUS FORECASTER THOUGHTS...AND WILL RIDE                  
CURRENT FORECAST OF CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT                
SOUTH OF M-72. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED AT ALL TO SEE THESE CHANCES               
REMOVED WITH FUTURE FORECAST ISSUANCES. FOR NOW...JUST MADE SOME                
COSMETIC CHANGES TO BLEND IN WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES.    SMD                   
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...ISSUED 730 AM                                                       
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. HOWEVER...SFC COOL              
FRONT WILL SWING ACROSS NRN MICHIGAN TODAY BRINGING A GUSTY                     
NORTHWEST WIND TO ALL TAF SITES. IN ADDITION...COOL AIR ALOFT WILL              
COMBINE WITH RELATIVELY WARMER WATERS OF THE GREAT LAKES...RESULTING            
IN ISOLATED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS FOR PLN/APN BETWEEN 14Z AND 19Z.                 
EXPECT THE DEVELOPMENT OF BKN CUMULUS AROUND MID MORNING WITH CIGS              
AOA 5KFT. THESE CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH BY EARLY THIS                   
EVENING...LEADING TO MAINLY CLEAR SKIES OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER...SCT CU             
OFF THE LAKES MAY CONTINUE TO PERIODICALLY AFFECT ALL TAF SITES. THE            
GUSTY WINDS WILL TAPER OFF TO NEAR CALM OVERNIGHT AS SFC HIGH                   
PRESSURE WORKS IN OVER THE TOP OF NRN MICHIGAN.   SMD                           
&&                                                                              
.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                        
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</pre> mi                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI                                             
730 AM EDT FRI AUG 17 2007                                                      
.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.                     
HOWEVER...SFC COOL FRONT WILL SWING ACROSS NRN MICHIGAN TODAY                   
BRINGING A GUSTY NORTHWEST WIND TO ALL TAF SITES. IN ADDITION...COOL            
AIR ALOFT WILL COMBINE WITH RELATIVELY WARMER WATERS OF THE GREAT               
LAKES...RESULTING IN ISOLATED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS FOR PLN/APN BETWEEN            
14Z AND 19Z. EXPECT THE DEVELOPMENT OF BKN CUMULUS AROUND MID                   
MORNING WITH CIGS AOA 5KFT. THESE CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH BY            
EARLY THIS EVENING...LEADING TO MAINLY CLEAR SKIES OVERNIGHT.                   
HOWEVER...SCT CU OFF THE LAKES MAY CONTINUE TO PERIODICALLY AFFECT              
ALL TAF SITES. THE GUSTY WINDS WILL TAPER OFF TO NEAR CALM OVERNIGHT            
AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE WORKS IN OVER THE TOP OF NRN MICHIGAN.   SMD               
&&                                                                              
.DISCUSSION...SFC/RUC/SATELLITE/RADAR AND UPPER AIR ANALYSIS SHOWING            
UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE NE CONUS WITH WELL DEFINED SHORTWAVE TROUGHS            
EMBEDDED WITHIN. THE MAIN SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED SFC TROUGH/COLDER            
AIR PUNCH AND DEEPER H8-H7 MOISTURE REMAINS POISED ACROSS SOUTHERN              
ONTARIO...A BIT SLOWER THAN ORIGINALLY ANTICIPATED. NEVERTHELESS...             
WE HAVE HAD SOME SCT070-090 CLOUD TRYING TO DEVELOP ACROSS EASTERN              
LAKE SUPERIOR...WHERE H8 TEMPS HAVE DROPPED INTO THE +7C RANGE.                 
SKIES WERE OTHERWISE CLEAR WITH A WIDE RANGE IN SFC TEMPERATURE.                
OVER THE WATER...READINGS WERE IN THE LOWER 60S...WHILE INTERIOR LOW            
LYING AREAS WHERE WINDS HAVE DECOUPLED...WERE IN THE LOWER 40S.                 
FORECAST CONCERNS...SYNOPTIC/LAKE EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS CHANCES TODAY             
ALONG WITH WATERSPOUT CHANCE AND WINDS WITH A NEARSHORE EMPHASIS.               
THEN THE FOCUS TURNS TO CHANCES FOR RAIN AGAIN WITH WARM FRONT                  
ARRIVING OVER THE WEEKEND.                                                      
TODAY...OVERALL...OUTSIDE OF THE GFS...MODELS STILL DO NOT SEEM TO              
BE HANDLING THE STRENGTH OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH IN NC ONTARIO VERY             
WELL...EVEN THE RUC. THIS WELL DEFINED FEATURE IS STILL EXPECTED TO             
DROP SE AND THROUGH SE ONTARIO AND INTO NEW YORK STATE TONIGHT. WITH            
THIS FEATURE...A SFC TROUGH WILL DROP THROUGH EASTERN UPPER BY                  
MIDDAY AND GRAZE THE NE LOWER NEARSHORE AREAS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.             
ALONG WITH THIS SFC TROUGH...ARRIVING WILL BE A NARROW BAND OF >70%             
H8-H7 MOISTURE...AND COLD ADVECTION THROUGH 500MB. H8 TEMPS WILL                
DROP TO AROUND +2C IN WHITEFISH BAY...TO +5C IN THE FAR SRN CWA.                
THIS WILL RESULT IN DELTA T`S AROUND 17C-18C.THIS OVER LAKE                     
INSTABILITY IN CONJUNCTION WITH BAND OF DEEPER MOISTURE AND LIFT                
FROM SFC TROUGH AND CORRIDOR OF WEAK TO MODEST H8-H5 -DIVQ SHOULD               
BE ABLE TO PROVIDE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS AS FAR              
SOUTH AS M-68 IN NRN LOWER. THE ADDED LAKE INFLUENCE COULD RESULT IN            
A BETTER CHANCE IMMEDIATELY DOWNWIND OF WHITEFISH BAY AND PERHAPS               
LAKE MICHIGAN/NRN LAKE HURON. THROWN IN LCL`S AROUND 3.5KFT WITH AN             
EXPECTED LOBE OF H8 VORTICITY...AND ALL OF THE ABOVE ATMOSPHERIC                
PARAMETERS...AND WE HAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF WATERSPOUTS TODAY FOR               
WHITEFISH BAY AND NRN LAKE HURON. THINGS GOING AGAINST WATERSPOUTS              
ARE THE MARGINAL RH AND THE WARMING SEEN ABOVE 750MB THIS                       
AFTERNOON...PLUS THE RELATIVELY STRONG H8 WIND AT 30KTS. THE LATTER             
WILL ALSO LEAD TO RATHER GUSTY CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP TODAY             
OVER THE LAKES. HAVE THROWN EVERYONE INTO A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR            
TODAY...WITH A FEW GALE GUSTS POSSIBLE IN COASTAL CONVERGENCE                   
REGIMES INTO THIS EVENING. AFTER COORDINATION WITH SURROUNDING                  
OFFICES AND ENVIRONMENT CANADA...DECIDED AGAINST THE GALES...AND                
RATHER IN FAVOR OF THE CHANCE FOR WATERSPOUTS. MODELS DO SUGGEST                
THAT DRIER AIR WILL FILTER IN BEHIND THE SFC TROUGH...WHILE                     
INVERSION HEIGHTS SUBSIDE WITH WARMING ALOFT. IF THE LAKE EFFECT                
RAIN SHOWERS COULD DEVELOP...WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE THEM                 
PERSIST INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS...EARLY AFTERNOON.                             
TONIGHT...CONTINUED WARMING ALOFT...SUBSIDING INVERSION HEIGHTS AND             
DRY AIR (< 25%) ARRIVING THROUGH THE EVENING...LEADS TO A GRADUAL               
CLEARING FOR THE NIGHT. BUT AGAIN...MAYBE CLOUDS COULD HANG ON A BIT            
LONGER INTO THE EVENING AND DAY CREW WILL NEED TO ASSESS THIS (NOT              
UNCOMMON FOR LAKE EFFECT TO HOLD OUT LONGER THAN ANTICIPATED). FOR              
NOW...WILL RIDE CURRENT FORECAST OF MOSTLY CLEAR. WINDS WILL SUBSIDE            
AS A SFC HIGH DROPS IN RIGHT OVER THE TOP OF NRN MICHIGAN. WILL END             
MARINE HEADLINES AT 11PM...AND COULD EASILY SEE LOWS DIPPING INTO               
THE UPPER 30S AND LOWER 40S BY DAYBREAK.                                        
SATURDAY...AIR MASS WILL BE QUITE DRY WITH H8-H5 MOISTURE AT 25% OR             
LESS. SFC HIGH WILL DRIFT EAST LATE IN THE DAY...WHILE MODELS                   
CONTINUE TO INSIST THAT HIGHER LEVEL MOISTURE WILL TRY AND SQUEAK               
INTO THE GTV BAY REGION BY LATE AFTERNOON...WELL AHEAD OF A WARM                
FRONT THAT IS EXPECTED TO BE WELL SOUTH OF US...ACROSS IOWA/NRN IL.             
CAN SEE NO CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION.                                            
SATURDAY NIGHT ONWARD...THE SFC HIGH WILL BE STUBBORN TO LEAVE                  
US...BUT A SLOW DRIFT EASTWARD THROUGH MONDAY IS ANTICIPATED. THE               
QUESTION IS...HOW LONG WILL IT BE BEFORE...OR WILL THE MOISTURE EVER            
BECOME DEEP ENOUGH WITH WAA...TO DEVELOP A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS               
FOR OUR SRN ZONES...SOUTH OF M-72. MID LEVEL HEIGHTS SLOWLY RISE                
THROUGH THE PERIOD...SO I CAN BELIEVE A SLOW PROGRESSION NORTH                  
THROUGH TIME WITH THE WARM FRONT. HOWEVER...BASED ON THE LOW LEVEL              
HIGH PRESSURE AXIS OVER THE GULF...AND THE FACT THAT THE MODELS MAY             
BE RIDDLED WITH CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK...HAVE QUESTIONS ABOUT THE                  
NORTHWARD EXTENT OF MODEL FORECAST PRECIPITATION BEGINNING SATURDAY             
NIGHT. AGREE WITH PREVIOUS FORECASTER THOUGHTS...AND WILL RIDE                  
CURRENT FORECAST OF CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT                
SOUTH OF M-72. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED AT ALL TO SEE THESE CHANCES               
REMOVED WITH FUTURE FORECAST ISSUANCES. FOR NOW...JUST MADE SOME                
COSMETIC CHANGES TO BLEND IN WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES.    SMD                   
&&                                                                              
.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                        
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</pre> mi                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI                                             
508 AM EDT FRI AUG 17 2007                                                      
.DISCUSSION...SFC/RUC/SATELLITE/RADAR AND UPPER AIR ANALYSIS SHOWING            
UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE NE CONUS WITH WELL DEFINED SHORTWAVE TROUGHS            
EMBEDDED WITHIN. THE MAIN SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED SFC TROUGH/COLDER            
AIR PUNCH AND DEEPER H8-H7 MOISTURE REMAINS POISED ACROSS SOUTHERN              
ONTARIO...A BIT SLOWER THAN ORIGINALLY ANTICIPATED. NEVERTHELESS...             
WE HAVE HAD SOME SCT070-090 CLOUD TRYING TO DEVELOP ACROSS EASTERN              
LAKE SUPERIOR...WHERE H8 TEMPS HAVE DROPPED INTO THE +7C RANGE.                 
SKIES WERE OTHERWISE CLEAR WITH A WIDE RANGE IN SFC TEMPERATURE.                
OVER THE WATER...READINGS WERE IN THE LOWER 60S...WHILE INTERIOR LOW            
LYING AREAS WHERE WINDS HAVE DECOUPLED...WERE IN THE LOWER 40S.                 
FORECAST CONCERNS...SYNOPTIC/LAKE EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS CHANCES TODAY             
ALONG WITH WATERSPOUT CHANCE AND WINDS WITH A NEARSHORE EMPHASIS.               
THEN THE FOCUS TURNS TO CHANCES FOR RAIN AGAIN WITH WARM FRONT                  
ARRIVING OVER THE WEEKEND.                                                      
TODAY...OVERALL...OUTSIDE OF THE GFS...MODELS STILL DO NOT SEEM TO              
BE HANDLING THE STRENGTH OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH IN NC ONTARIO VERY             
WELL...EVEN THE RUC. THIS WELL DEFINED FEATURE IS STILL EXPECTED TO             
DROP SE AND THROUGH SE ONTARIO AND INTO NEW YORK STATE TONIGHT. WITH            
THIS FEATURE...A SFC TROUGH WILL DROP THROUGH EASTERN UPPER BY                  
MIDDAY AND GRAZE THE NE LOWER NEARSHORE AREAS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.             
ALONG WITH THIS SFC TROUGH...ARRIVING WILL BE A NARROW BAND OF >70%             
H8-H7 MOISTURE...AND COLD ADVECTION THROUGH 500MB. H8 TEMPS WILL                
DROP TO AROUND +2C IN WHITEFISH BAY...TO +5C IN THE FAR SRN CWA.                
THIS WILL RESULT IN DELTA T`S AROUND 17C-18C.THIS OVER LAKE                     
INSTABILITY IN CONJUNCTION WITH BAND OF DEEPER MOISTURE AND LIFT                
FROM SFC TROUGH AND CORRIDOR OF WEAK TO MODEST H8-H5 -DIVQ SHOULD               
BE ABLE TO PROVIDE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS AS FAR              
SOUTH AS M-68 IN NRN LOWER. THE ADDED LAKE INFLUENCE COULD RESULT IN            
A BETTER CHANCE IMMEDIATELY DOWNWIND OF WHITEFISH BAY AND PERHAPS               
LAKE MICHIGAN/NRN LAKE HURON. THROWN IN LCL`S AROUND 3.5KFT WITH AN             
EXPECTED LOBE OF H8 VORTICITY...AND ALL OF THE ABOVE ATMOSPHERIC                
PARAMETERS...AND WE HAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF WATERSPOUTS TODAY FOR               
WHITEFISH BAY AND NRN LAKE HURON. THINGS GOING AGAINST WATERSPOUTS              
ARE THE MARGINAL RH AND THE WARMING SEEN ABOVE 750MB THIS                       
AFTERNOON...PLUS THE RELATIVELY STRONG H8 WIND AT 30KTS. THE LATTER             
WILL ALSO LEAD TO RATHER GUSTY CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP TODAY             
OVER THE LAKES. HAVE THROWN EVERYONE INTO A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR            
TODAY...WITH A FEW GALE GUSTS POSSIBLE IN COASTAL CONVERGENCE                   
REGIMES INTO THIS EVENING. AFTER COORDINATION WITH SURROUNDING                  
OFFICES AND ENVIRONMENT CANADA...DECIDED AGAINST THE GALES...AND                
RATHER IN FAVOR OF THE CHANCE FOR WATERSPOUTS. MODELS DO SUGGEST                
THAT DRIER AIR WILL FILTER IN BEHIND THE SFC TROUGH...WHILE                     
INVERSION HEIGHTS SUBSIDE WITH WARMING ALOFT. IF THE LAKE EFFECT                
RAIN SHOWERS COULD DEVELOP...WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE THEM                 
PERSIST INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS...EARLY AFTERNOON.                             
TONIGHT...CONTINUED WARMING ALOFT...SUBSIDING INVERSION HEIGHTS AND             
DRY AIR (< 25%) ARRIVING THROUGH THE EVENING...LEADS TO A GRADUAL               
CLEARING FOR THE NIGHT. BUT AGAIN...MAYBE CLOUDS COULD HANG ON A BIT            
LONGER INTO THE EVENING AND DAY CREW WILL NEED TO ASSESS THIS (NOT              
UNCOMMON FOR LAKE EFFECT TO HOLD OUT LONGER THAN ANTICIPATED). FOR              
NOW...WILL RIDE CURRENT FORECAST OF MOSTLY CLEAR. WINDS WILL SUBSIDE            
AS A SFC HIGH DROPS IN RIGHT OVER THE TOP OF NRN MICHIGAN. WILL END             
MARINE HEADLINES AT 11PM...AND COULD EASILY SEE LOWS DIPPING INTO               
THE UPPER 30S AND LOWER 40S BY DAYBREAK.                                        
SATURDAY...AIR MASS WILL BE QUITE DRY WITH H8-H5 MOISTURE AT 25% OR             
LESS. SFC HIGH WILL DRIFT EAST LATE IN THE DAY...WHILE MODELS                   
CONTINUE TO INSIST THAT HIGHER LEVEL MOISTURE WILL TRY AND SQUEAK               
INTO THE GTV BAY REGION BY LATE AFTERNOON...WELL AHEAD OF A WARM                
FRONT THAT IS EXPECTED TO BE WELL SOUTH OF US...ACROSS IOWA/NRN IL.             
CAN SEE NO CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION.                                            
SATURDAY NIGHT ONWARD...THE SFC HIGH WILL BE STUBBORN TO LEAVE                  
US...BUT A SLOW DRIFT EASTWARD THROUGH MONDAY IS ANTICIPATED. THE               
QUESTION IS...HOW LONG WILL IT BE BEFORE...OR WILL THE MOISTURE EVER            
BECOME DEEP ENOUGH WITH WAA...TO DEVELOP A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS               
FOR OUR SRN ZONES...SOUTH OF M-72. MID LEVEL HEIGHTS SLOWLY RISE                
THROUGH THE PERIOD...SO I CAN BELIEVE A SLOW PROGRESSION NORTH                  
THROUGH TIME WITH THE WARM FRONT. HOWEVER...BASED ON THE LOW LEVEL              
HIGH PRESSURE AXIS OVER THE GULF...AND THE FACT THAT THE MODELS MAY             
BE RIDDLED WITH CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK...HAVE QUESTIONS ABOUT THE                  
NORTHWARD EXTENT OF MODEL FORECAST PRECIPITATION BEGINNING SATURDAY             
NIGHT. AGREE WITH PREVIOUS FORECASTER THOUGHTS...AND WILL RIDE                  
CURRENT FORECAST OF CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT                
SOUTH OF M-72. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED AT ALL TO SEE THESE CHANCES               
REMOVED WITH FUTURE FORECAST ISSUANCES. FOR NOW...JUST MADE SOME                
COSMETIC CHANGES TO BLEND IN WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES.    SMD                   
.AVIATION...HIGH PRESSURE AND VERY DRY AIR ACROSS NRN MICHIGAN WILL             
PRODUCE VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE NIGHT AT PLN/TVC/APN. SFC WINDS              
WILL REMAIN ON THE LIGHT SIDE THROUGH THE NIGHT BUT BEGIN TO                    
INCREASE AGAIN TOWARD MORNING. ON FRIDAY...MID LEVEL WAVE AND                   
ASSOCIATED POCKET OF COLD AIR ALOFT NOW ACROSS ONTARIO EXPECTED TO              
DROP DOWN INTO NRN MICHIGAN. THE FAIRLY COLD AIR ALOFT (TEMPS AT 850            
MB COOLING TO +5C TO +7C) OVER THE RELATIVE WARM GREAT LAKES...                 
COMBINED WITH DAYTIME HEATING WILL LEAD TO RAPID DEVELOPMENT OF BKN             
LOWER CLOUD COVER FRIDAY MORNING...BASES 3K-5K FEET. MAY BE ENOUGH              
LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY TO PRODUCE SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY AT PLN/APN                
FROM MID MORNING THROUGH MID AFTERNOON...BUT GIVEN LOW PROBABILITIES            
WILL ONLY CARRY VICINITY SHOWERS AT THESE TAF SITES FOR NOW. IF                 
ENOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS ON FRIDAY...DAYTIME HEATING COULD             
FIRE OFF AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO (A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES               
NOTED OVER CENTRAL ONTARIO LATE THIS AFTERNOON) BRINGING A RISK FOR             
THUNDER PRIMARILY TO APN. HOWEVER...THIS SCENARIO APPEARS UNLIKELY              
AT THIS JUNCTURE.                                                               
ADAM                                                                            
&&                                                                              
.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                        
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</pre> mi                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN                              
712 PM CDT SAT AUG 18 2007                                                      
.UPDATE...ADDED AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR 00Z TAFS BELOW                          
&&                                                                              
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
VOLATILE SITUATION SETTING UP ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN MN AND NORTHERN               
IA AT MID AFTERNOON. CLOUDS AND RAIN TODAY HAVE HELD TEMPERATURES               
AND DEW POINTS IN THE UPPER 50S OVER FAR SOUTHERN MN. JUST SOUTH OF             
THE WARM FRONT IN IA TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE UPPER 80S AND                      
DEW POINTS ARE IN THE MIDDLE 70S. STRONG LOW LEVEL WAA IN FOCUSED               
ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL MN THROUGH 19/06Z BEFORE WINDS BEGIN TO VEER.              
ANOTHER SHORT WAVE IS PROGGED TO PASS ACROSS IA THIS EVENING FROM               
NEBRASKA. THIS FEATURE IS NOT AS CLEAR AS THE TWO CIRCULATIONS                  
SEEN IN THE MOSAIC RADAR IMAGERY OVER EASTERN SD THIS MORNING.                  
THESE FEATURES ARE NOW APPROACHING EASTERN MN. THE RUC/NAM LOW                  
LEVEL WINDS INCREASE TO NEAR 40 KNOTS DURING THE EVENING OVER                   
NORTHERN IA AND FAR SOUTH CENTRAL MN. THE WIND PROFILE AT KFRM IS               
STRONGLY VEERED. MAIN CONCERN IS FOR MORE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT                
ALONG AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 90. PW`S ARE NEAR 2 INCHES ATTM.                  
RAINFALL TODAY FROM OBSERVERS AND RADAR HAS TOTALED 1.5 TO 3                    
INCHES. THE RADAR IS SLIGHTLY UNDERESTIMATING ON THE STP WHICH IS               
NOT SURPRISING GIVEN THE DISTANCE THE RAIN IS AWAY FROM THE RADAR               
AND THE FACT THAT THIS IS LOW TOP CONVECTION. DECIDED EARLY THIS                
AFTERNOON TO EXTEND THE FLOOD WATCH THROUGH 4 AM SUNDAY FOR SOUTH               
CENTRAL MN WITH THE THREAT FOR HEAVY RAIN CONTINUING INTO EARLY                 
SUNDAY MORNING. EXCELLENT COORDINATION FROM THE SURROUNDING                     
OFFICES TODAY.                                                                  
THE ROAD AHEAD LOOKS WET AND STORMY...ESPECIALLY FOR SOUTHERN MN...AS           
AN UPPER LOW OFF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST PUSHES INTO SOUTH CENTRAL                
CANADA BY MID WEEK. WE WILL BE UNDER THE GUN FOR MORE HEAVY RAIN                
SUNDAY NIGHT OVER SOUTHERN AREAS OF MN AS LOW LEVEL WINDS BACK AND              
INCREASE AHEAD OF YET ANOTHER SHORT WAVE. SEVERE WEATHER WILL ALSO              
BE POSSIBLE AS THE WARM FRONT SHOULD BE NEAR THE IA/MN BORDER. ALL              
FORMS OF SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE POSSIBLE. THE ONE THING TODAY                   
DIFFERENT FROM THAT SEEN ON FRIDAY IS THAT THE WARM FRONT LOOKS                 
LIKE IT WILL HAVE A HARD TIME MOVING TO FAR NORTH AND MAY STAY                  
OVER OUR SOUTHERN FA INTO TUESDAY. THE PICTURE BECOMES A LITTLE                 
MUDDY TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...BUT AS THE UPPER LOW REACHES SOUTH               
CENTRAL CANADA...THERE WILL BE AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT THAT WILL               
TRY TO PUSH ACROSS THE FA. CHANCES POPS CONTINUED INTO MID WEEK.                
IT APPEARS A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL TRY AND RIDE NORTHEAST                   
ALONG THE FRONT THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...PASSING ACROSS SOUTHERN MN.               
HENCE...CHANCE POPS REMAIN IN THE FORECAST THROUGH FRIDAY. IT                   
APPEARS IT MAY BE NEXT WEEKEND BEFORE WINDS TURN NORTHWEST ALOFT                
AND THINGS DRY OUT.                                                             
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION.../FOR 00Z TAFS/                                                      
MESSY FORECAST CONTINUES THANKS TO AREA STAYING NORTH OF A WARM                 
FRONTAL BOUNDARY STRETCHED ACROSS SOUTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA AND                    
WESTERN IOWA. TRICKY FORECAST BUT AM FAIRLY CONFIDENT IN IFR CIGS               
TONIGHT AND LOWER END MVFR/HIGHER IFR CIGS RIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON.      
ALSO CONFIDENT IN LOWERING VISIBILITY LATE THIS EVENING AND                     
OVERNIGHT WITH ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE NOT GOING ANYWHERE.                  
EXPECT THAT VIS WILL FALL INTO THE 1-4 MILE RANGE ACROSS THE                    
AREA.                                                                           
THE TRICKY PART WILL BE THE PRECIPITATION CHANCES THROUGH THE                   
PERIOD...AND THUS LOWER CONFIDENCE IN THIS PART OF THE FORECAST.                
CURRENTLY...BAND OF SHOWERS FROM THE TWIN CITIES SOUTHEASTWARD                  
THROUGH FARIBAULT AND TOWARDS ROCHESTER CONTINUES TO DRIFT                      
EASTWARD. FORCING FOR THIS WILL CONTINUE EASTWARD THROUGH THE                   
EVENING. ADDITIONAL SCATTERED SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED TO THE WEST                
AND SOUTHWEST OF THE TWIN CITIES IN THE LAST HALF HOUR OR SO.                   
ADDITIONAL MOISTURE MOVING IN AND BEING PUSHED UPWARD OVER THE                  
AREA DRIVING THIS DEVELOPMENT. THIS FORCING WILL TURN MORE TO THE               
EAST AND SHIFT THE SHOWER DEVELOPMENT TO THE SOUTH OF THE TAF                   
SITES THROUGH THE MID TO LATE EVENING. MOST AT RISK FOR                         
SIGNIFICANT SHRA/TSRA THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT IS KRWF. CONVECTION              
IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS SOUTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA OVER THE NEXT              
COUPLE HOURS. THIS WILL MOVE EAST AND SOUTHEAST AND MAY BRUSH                   
KRWF. WILL NEED TO MONITOR FOR POTENTIAL IMPACT THERE. AT                       
KMSP/KRNH/KEAU ...THE BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL BE OVER THE                  
NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. VISIBILITY TO LESS THAN 2 MILES WILL BE                     
POSSIBLE IN THE MOST INTENSE SHOWERS BUT DOWNPOURS WILL BE BRIEF.               
DRIZZLE AND LIGHT RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE NIGHT BUT AM                
THINKING THIS WILL BE SCATTERED AND OF LOW INTENSITY. ..MDB..                   
&&                                                                              
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
MN...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 4 AM CDT SUNDAY FOR BLUE EARTH-BROWN-              
     FARIBAULT-FREEBORN-LE SUEUR-MARTIN-NICOLLET-RICE-STEELE-                   
     WASECA-WATONWAN COUNTY(IES).                                               
WI...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
RAH/MDB                                                                         
</pre> mn                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN                              
337 PM CDT SAT AUG 18 2007                                                      
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
VOLATILE SITUATION SETTING UP ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN MN AND NORTHERN               
IA AT MID AFTERNOON. CLOUDS AND RAIN TODAY HAVE HELD TEMPERATURES               
AND DEW POINTS IN THE UPPER 50S OVER FAR SOUTHERN MN. JUST SOUTH OF             
THE WARM FRONT IN IA TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE UPPER 80S AND                      
DEW POINTS ARE IN THE MIDDLE 70S. STRONG LOW LEVEL WAA IN FOCUSED               
ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL MN THROUGH 19/06Z BEFORE WINDS BEGIN TO VEER.              
ANOTHER SHORT WAVE IS PROGGED TO PASS ACROSS IA THIS EVENING FROM               
NEBRASKA. THIS FEATURE IS NOT AS CLEAR AS THE TWO CIRCULATIONS                  
SEEN IN THE MOSAIC RADAR IMAGERY OVER EASTERN SD THIS MORNING.                  
THESE FEATURES ARE NOW APPROACHING EASTERN MN. THE RUC/NAM LOW                  
LEVEL WINDS INCREASE TO NEAR 40 KNOTS DURING THE EVENING OVER                   
NORTHERN IA AND FAR SOUTH CENTRAL MN. THE WIND PROFILE AT KFRM IS               
STRONGLY VEERED. MAIN CONCERN IS FOR MORE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT                
ALONG AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 90. PW`S ARE NEAR 2 INCHES ATTM.                  
RAINFALL TODAY FROM OBSERVERS AND RADAR HAS TOTALED 1.5 TO 3                    
INCHES. THE RADAR IS SLIGHTLY UNDERESTIMATING ON THE STP WHICH IS               
NOT SURPRISING GIVEN THE DISTANCE THE RAIN IS AWAY FROM THE RADAR               
AND THE FACT THAT THIS IS LOW TOP CONVECTION. DECIDED EARLY THIS                
AFTERNOON TO EXTEND THE FLOOD WATCH THROUGH 4 AM SUNDAY FOR SOUTH               
CENTRAL MN WITH THE THREAT FOR HEAVY RAIN CONTINUING INTO EARLY                 
SUNDAY MORNING. EXCELLENT COORDINATION FROM THE SURROUNDING                     
OFFICES TODAY.                                                                  
THE ROAD AHEAD LOOKS WET AND STORMY...ESPECIALLY FOR SOUTHERN MN...AS           
AN UPPER LOW OFF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST PUSHES INTO SOUTH CENTRAL                
CANADA BY MID WEEK. WE WILL BE UNDER THE GUN FOR MORE HEAVY RAIN                
SUNDAY NIGHT OVER SOUTHERN AREAS OF MN AS LOW LEVEL WINDS BACK AND              
INCREASE AHEAD OF YET ANOTHER SHORT WAVE. SEVERE WEATHER WILL ALSO              
BE POSSIBLE AS THE WARM FRONT SHOULD BE NEAR THE IA/MN BORDER. ALL              
FORMS OF SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE POSSIBLE. THE ONE THING TODAY                   
DIFFERENT FROM THAT SEEN ON FRIDAY IS THAT THE WARM FRONT LOOKS                 
LIKE IT WILL HAVE A HARD TIME MOVING TO FAR NORTH AND MAY STAY                  
OVER OUR SOUTHERN FA INTO TUESDAY. THE PICTURE BECOMES A LITTLE                 
MUDDY TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...BUT AS THE UPPER LOW REACHES SOUTH               
CENTRAL CANADA...THERE WILL BE AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT THAT WILL               
TRY TO PUSH ACROSS THE FA. CHANCES POPS CONTINUED INTO MID WEEK.                
IT APPEARS A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL TRY AND RIDE NORTHEAST                   
ALONG THE FRONT THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...PASSING ACROSS SOUTHERN MN.               
HENCE...CHANCE POPS REMAIN IN THE FORECAST THROUGH FRIDAY. IT                   
APPEARS IT MAY BE NEXT WEEKEND BEFORE WINDS TURN NORTHWEST ALOFT                
AND THINGS DRY OUT.                                                             
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 108 PM CDT SAT AUG 18 2007/                         
AVIATION... /18Z TAFS/                                                          
CEILINGS WILL CONTINUE TO DROP THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH HIGH                 
CONFIDENCE AS WARM MOIST AIR OVERRIDES A SHALLOW STABLE COOL LAYER              
AT THE SURFACE. THUNDER WILL BE MORE PREDOMINANT SOUTH OF THE MN                
RIVER VALLEY...HOWEVER LATE THIS AFTN AND INTO THIS EVE AS LOW                  
LEVEL JET RESURGES THERE IS ENOUGH INCREASE IN INSTABILITY                      
INDICATED BY THE MODELS TO WARRANT A HINT AT T-STORMS. MVFR VISBYS              
WILL BE COMMONPLACE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD...WITH IFR FOG LIKELY                
AT RWF TONIGHT GIVEN THE WET GROUND AND SLACKENING WINDS THERE                  
&&                                                                              
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
MN...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR BLUE EARTH-BROWN-               
     FARIBAULT-FREEBORN-LE SUEUR-MARTIN-NICOLLET-RICE-STEELE-                   
     WASECA-WATONWAN COUNTY(IES).                                               
WI...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
RAH/MTF                                                                         
</pre> mn                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN                                              
1014 AM CDT SAT AUG 18 2007                                                     
.UPDATE...                                                                      
LOWERED MAX TEMPS ACROSS SRN HALF OF CWA TODAY CLOSER TO MAV/LAMP               
GUIDANCE. OVERCAST SKIES ALONG WITH THE RAIN SHOWERS ALONG THE                  
SRN ZONES WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S TODAY. FURTHER                      
NORTH...MORE SUN AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL RESULT IN TEMPS IN THE LOWER           
70S.                                                                            
TWEAKED POPS TO ACCOUNT FOR CURRENT RADAR/SAT TRENDS. NO SIG CHANGES            
TO FCST...CONTINUE TO EXPECT THE NRN EDGE OF THE RA TO TRACK REACH              
INTO THE SRN TIER OF COUNTIES IN THE DLH CWA. ONLY ISOLD -SHRA                  
WILL BE FOUND IN THE TWIN PORTS AREA.                                           
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 338 AM CDT SAT AUG 18 2007/                         
DISCUSSION...MAIN FOCUS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS WILL BE TO RESOLVE               
PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL OFFERED A MYRIAD OF DIFFERENT SOLUTIONS.                
AT PRESENT TIME...CLEAR SKIES AND VERY COOL CONDITIONS WERE FOUND               
ALONG THE IRON RANGE AND THE ARROWHEAD REGIONS. TEMPERATURES HAD                
DROPPED INTO THE MIDDLE 30S AT THE GRAND MARAIS AIRPORT. A                      
DEVELOPING AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDED FROM CENTRAL              
SOUTH DAKOTA...INTO SW MN AND NORTHERN IOWA. THE ENTIRE AREA WAS                
GRADUALLY TRYING TO SHIFT TO THE NORTH.                                         
QUITE A VARIED FORECAST AMONGST THE 00Z/06Z MODELS...WITH THE 06Z               
NAM AND THE FULL MEMBER SREF PAINTING PCPN A BIT FARTHER NORTH.                 
IN TERMS OF THE GFS ENSEMBLE FORECAST...THERE WAS A FAIR AMOUNT OF              
SPREAD AMONGST THE MEMBERS...BUT AGREEMENT ON A SHARP N-S CUTOFF                
TO THE PRECIPITATION. WILL FOLLOW THE OPERATIONAL GFS FAIRLY                    
CLOSELY FOR THE FORECAST OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...ALTHOUGH WILL                 
LEND SOME CREDENCE TO OTHER MODELS...ESPECIALLY THE 06Z RUC...BY                
EXTENDING A SMALL POP NORTH OF THE EXPECTED MAIN PCPN AREA. HAVE                
WENT JUST SLIGHTLY NORTH OF THE HPC QPF AREA AS WELL. THE MAIN                  
PCPN THIS WEEKEND IS EXPECTED TO BE IN THE FAR SOUTH.                           
FOR TODAY...THE SHORTWAVE PUSHING EASTWARD OUT OF THE DAKOTAS WILL              
SPREAD PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CWA...WHILE THE NORTH                  
SHOULD SEE PARTLY SUNNY SKIES. TEMPS WILL BE WARMER IN THE NORTH                
DUE TO INCREASED SUNSHINE IN THAT AREA. WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM                
THE EAST...WITH GUSTY WINDS NEAR THE LAKE SUPERIOR SHORELINE.                   
FOR TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY...THE FOCUS WILL CONTINUE TO BE IN THE                  
SOUTHERN CWA...ALTHOUGH GFS PAINTING SOME QPF PUSHING NORTHWARD                 
INTO THE IRON RANGE. DRY EASTERLY WINDS FUNNELING OUT OF HIGH                   
PRESSURE IN ONTARIO WILL KEEP THE ARROWHEAD REGION DRY FOR                      
SURE...AND POSSIBLY EVEN INTO NC MN.                                            
A LITTLE BETTER CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION CWA-WIDE WILL ARRIVE                    
MONDAY AND CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY...AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES                  
EASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION.                                                     
OVERALL...TEMPERATURES SHOULD MODERATE...BACK INTO THE 70S FOR                  
MOST AREAS BY EARLY TO MID WEEK.                                                
AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA                 
THROUGH THIS MORNING. AREAS OF MVFR CIGS WILL THEN BEGIN TO SPREAD              
IN FROM THE SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. BY LATE                           
TONIGHT...AREAS OF MVFR TO IFR CIGS WITH PATCHY FOG IS LIKELY FOR               
MUCH OF THE NORTHLAND. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS                  
ACROSS CENTRAL MN AND WI TONIGHT...MAINLY AFFECTING KHYR.                       
&&                                                                              
POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                             
DLH  66  50  69  54 /  20  10  20  20                                           
INL  72  48  74  55 /  10  10  10  10                                           
BRD  67  55  71  60 /  80  20  30  40                                           
HYR  66  53  71  56 /  70  30  30  30                                           
ASX  67  51  70  58 /  20  10  20  20                                           
&&                                                                              
.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
MN...NONE.                                                                      
WI...NONE.                                                                      
LS...NONE.                                                                      
$$                                                                              
GRANING/CANNON                                                                  
</pre> mn                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN                                              
338 AM CDT SAT AUG 18 2007                                                      
.DISCUSSION...MAIN FOCUS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS WILL BE TO RESOLVE              
PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL OFFERED A MYRIAD OF DIFFERENT SOLUTIONS.                
AT PRESENT TIME...CLEAR SKIES AND VERY COOL CONDITIONS WERE FOUND               
ALONG THE IRON RANGE AND THE ARROWHEAD REGIONS. TEMPERATURES HAD                
DROPPED INTO THE MIDDLE 30S AT THE GRAND MARAIS AIRPORT. A                      
DEVELOPING AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDED FROM CENTRAL              
SOUTH DAKOTA...INTO SW MN AND NORTHERN IOWA. THE ENTIRE AREA WAS                
GRADUALLY TRYING TO SHIFT TO THE NORTH.                                         
QUITE A VARIED FORECAST AMONGST THE 00Z/06Z MODELS...WITH THE 06Z               
NAM AND THE FULL MEMBER SREF PAINTING PCPN A BIT FARTHER NORTH.                 
IN TERMS OF THE GFS ENSEMBLE FORECAST...THERE WAS A FAIR AMOUNT OF              
SPREAD AMONGST THE MEMBERS...BUT AGREEMENT ON A SHARP N-S CUTOFF                
TO THE PRECIPITATION. WILL FOLLOW THE OPERATIONAL GFS FAIRLY                    
CLOSELY FOR THE FORECAST OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...ALTHOUGH WILL                 
LEND SOME CREDENCE TO OTHER MODELS...ESPECIALLY THE 06Z RUC...BY                
EXTENDING A SMALL POP NORTH OF THE EXPECTED MAIN PCPN AREA. HAVE                
WENT JUST SLIGHTLY NORTH OF THE HPC QPF AREA AS WELL. THE MAIN                  
PCPN THIS WEEKEND IS EXPECTED TO BE IN THE FAR SOUTH.                           
FOR TODAY...THE SHORTWAVE PUSHING EASTWARD OUT OF THE DAKOTAS WILL              
SPREAD PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CWA...WHILE THE NORTH                  
SHOULD SEE PARTLY SUNNY SKIES. TEMPS WILL BE WARMER IN THE NORTH                
DUE TO INCREASED SUNSHINE IN THAT AREA. WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM                
THE EAST...WITH GUSTY WINDS NEAR THE LAKE SUPERIOR SHORELINE.                   
FOR TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY...THE FOCUS WILL CONTINUE TO BE IN THE                  
SOUTHERN CWA...ALTHOUGH GFS PAINTING SOME QPF PUSHING NORTHWARD                 
INTO THE IRON RANGE. DRY EASTERLY WINDS FUNNELING OUT OF HIGH                   
PRESSURE IN ONTARIO WILL KEEP THE ARROWHEAD REGION DRY FOR                      
SURE...AND POSSIBLY EVEN INTO NC MN.                                            
A LITTLE BETTER CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION CWA-WIDE WILL ARRIVE                    
MONDAY AND CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY...AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES                  
EASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION.                                                     
OVERALL...TEMPERATURES SHOULD MODERATE...BACK INTO THE 70S FOR                  
MOST AREAS BY EARLY TO MID WEEK.                                                
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA                
THROUGH THIS MORNING. AREAS OF MVFR CIGS WILL THEN BEGIN TO SPREAD              
IN FROM THE SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. BY LATE                           
TONIGHT...AREAS OF MVFR TO IFR CIGS WITH PATCHY FOG IS LIKELY FOR               
MUCH OF THE NORTHLAND. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS                  
ACROSS CENTRAL MN AND WI TONIGHT...MAINLY AFFECTING KHYR.                       
&&                                                                              
POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                             
DLH  67  50  69  54 /  20  10  20  20                                           
INL  72  48  74  55 /  10  10  10  10                                           
BRD  70  55  71  60 /  40  20  30  40                                           
HYR  68  53  71  56 /  40  30  30  30                                           
ASX  68  51  70  58 /  20  10  20  20                                           
&&                                                                              
.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
MN...NONE.                                                                      
WI...NONE.                                                                      
LS...NONE.                                                                      
$$                                                                              
DAP/BERDES                                                                      
</pre> mn                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO                           
332 PM CDT SAT AUG 18 2007                                                      
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
SHORT TERM...                                                                   
MAIN CONCERN IS WITH THE REMNANTS OF ERIN. WRF WANTS TO SPLIT UP THE            
CIRCULATION WITH ERIN AND HAS A STRONGER SHORT WAVE IN THE NORTHERN             
STREAM PHASING WITH THE PART OF ERIN IT BRINGS NORTH INTO MISSOURI              
SUNDAY NIGHT. GFS AND SIMILARLY THE ECMWF HOLD THE REMNANTS MORE AS             
A SINGLE ENTITY AND ARE SLOWER WITH MOVING IT THROUGH THE FORECAST              
AREA. PREFER THIS SLOWER SOLUTION SINCE THERE IS NOT A STRONGER WAVE            
TO KICK THIS FEATURE UNTIL IT BECOMES PHASED WITH THE NORTHERN                  
STREAM MONDAY NIGHT.  THUS WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE OR CHANCE POPS IN            
FORECAST AREA THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.                                             
SHOULD CONTINUE TO SEE PLENTY OF CLOUDINESS BEING PUMPED INTO AREA              
WITH MOISTURE FROM ERIN STREAMING OVER THE REGION. MAV NUMBERS ON               
SUNDAY LOOK WAY TOO WARM GIVEN THE CLOUDINESS...AND MET A LITTLE TOO            
COOL GIVEN THE AIRMASS. THUS WILL GO WITH A COMPROMISE OF GUIDANCE              
NUMBERS FOR HIGHS ON SUNDAY. WILL ALSO KEEP MONDAY A LITTLE COOLER              
IN EASTERN AREAS WITH CLOUDS AND RAIN EXPECTED.                                 
PC                                                                              
LONG TERM...                                                                    
ONLY SLIGHT ADJUSTMENTS MADE TO THE MEDIUM RANGE PORTIONS OF THE                
FORECAST.  MODELS REMAIN IN DECENT AGREEMENT FLATTENING THE H5 RIDGE            
AND SWEEPING LONG WAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE NORTHERN CONUS EARLY IN THE            
PERIOD.  BY TUESDAY...H5 TROUGH WILL SWING A WEAK COLD FRONT THROUGH            
THE MIDWEST...WITH THE FRONT LIKELY REACHING EXTREME NORTHERN                   
MISSOURI BY TUESDAY NIGHT.  AS THE OVERALL FLOW PATTERN BECOMES                 
ZONAL FOR MID-WEEK...FRONT WILL LIKELY REMAIN STALLED FROM WEST TO              
EAST JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE CWA THROUGH MUCH OF THE                           
WEEK...BECOMING SUSCEPTIBLE TO WEAK IMPULSES RIDING THROUGH THE                 
MID-LVL FLOW.  FOR NOW...MADE LITTLE CHANGES TO THE ONGOING POPS                
SINCE SO MUCH UNCERTAINTY EXISTS AS TO HOW FAR SOUTH THE FRONT WILL             
BE ABLE TO SINK.  ATTM...BEST CHANCE FOR RAINFALL WILL REMAIN ACROSS            
THE NORTHERN TIER OF COUNTIES...HOWEVER ONLY LOW CHANCE POPS                    
WARRANTED AT THIS TIME.                                                         
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS TRY TO BRING A SECOND DISTURBANCE THROUGH THE               
MID-LVL FLOW BY THURSDAY. THIS DISTURBANCE SHOULD BE STRONG ENOUGH              
TO DISLODGE THE FRONT AND PUSH IT SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE AREA.  THE              
GFS HAS CONTINUED TO SLOW THE FRONTAL PASSAGE DOWN...WITH A SLOWDOWN            
OF NEARLY 24 HOURS ALREADY NOTED.  THE FRONT WILL LIKELY DROP JUST              
TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA IN THE FRIDAY/SATURDAY TIMEFRAME...WITH THE            
RETROGRADING H5 RIDGE OVER THE SE KEEPING THE FRONT FROM DROPPING               
FURTHER SOUTH.                                                                  
AS FAR AS TEMPERATURES ARE CONCERNED...MUCH OF THE CWA WILL REMAIN              
IN THE WARM SECTOR THROUGH MID-WEEK.  AS A RESULT...BUMPED UP                   
MIN/MAX TEMPERATURES A DEGREE OR TWO IN ORDER TO COMPENSATE FOR THE             
STRONGER SW LOW-LVL FLOW. BY NEXT WEEKEND...IF THE FRONT IS ABLE TO             
DROP THROUGH THE AREA...TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY FALL INTO THE 80S.             
HOWEVER...INDICATIONS POINT TO A RETURN OF A LONG-WAVE RIDGE AND                
QUICK RETURN TO WARMER TEMPERATURES.                                            
31                                                                              
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
FOR THE 18Z TAFS...WARM FRONT HAS LIFTED NORTH OF THE KANSAS CITY               
TAF SITES...AND WE WILL SEE THE WINDS A BIT STRONGER DURING THE                 
AFTERNOON HOURS TO THE SOUTH OF THIS BOUNDARY. THE FRONT WILL BE                
LIFTING NORTH OF THE ST JOSEPH TAF SITE SHORTLY...WHICH SHOULD END              
THE HAZE IN THE REGION.                                                         
BETTER INSTABILITY AT THIS POINT ACROSS EASTERN KANSAS BUT LOOKING              
AT RUC MODEL...SHOWING VORT LOBE LIFTING INTO EAST CENTRAL KANSAS               
AND WEST CENTRAL MISSOURI LATE THIS AFTERNOON THAT MAY ALSO SUPPORT             
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IN THOSE AREAS...SO WILL CONTINUE WITH THE             
TEMPO GROUP TO COVER THIS POTENTIAL.                                            
PC                                                                              
&&                                                                              
.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
MO...NONE.                                                                      
KS...NONE.                                                                      
$$                                                                              
</pre> mo                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO                           
120 PM CDT SAT AUG 18 2007                                                      
...UPDATED FOR AVIATION...                                                      
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
/210 AM CDT SAT AUG 18 2007/                                                    
ATTENTION NOW SHIFTS AWAY FROM THE HIGH HEAT TO THE THREAT OF                   
CONVECTION THIS WEEKEND. LATEST SFC ANALYSIS DEPICTS A POORLY                   
DEFINED STATIONARY FRONT FROM SERN NEB SW TO XTRM SWRN MO. THIS                 
FRONT WILL MOVE QUICKLY NORTH TODAY IN RESPONSE TO A SHORTWAVE                  
TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE NRN PLAINS. THE FRONT IS XPCTD TO SHIFT NE            
INTO THE ERN CWA THIS AFTN...AND WITH A VERY WEAK CAP IN                        
PLACE...ALONG WITH MODERATE INSTABILITY...THE FRONT MAY TRIGGER A               
FEW THUNDERSTORMS.                                                              
MAIN CONCERN IS THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL STORM ERIN. LATEST STLT AND            
RADAR SHOW A NEARLY STATIONARY UPPER LOW JUST NORTH OF MIDLAND                  
TEXAS. DEEP MID-TROPOSPHERIC MOISTURE WAS GRADUALLY BEING ADVECTED              
NORTH INTO WRN TX EAST TO ARKANSAS. HAVE LITTLE FAITH IN THE MODELS             
FUTURE DEPICTION OF THE STRUCTURE AND MOVEMENT OF THE UPPER TROUGH.             
BOTH THE NAM/HIGH RESOLTUION WRF AND GFS...SHEAR A SHORTWAVE NE FROM            
THE UPPER LOW...BUT STLT AND RADAR SHOW LITTLE INDICATION OF THIS.              
REGARDLESS...THE OUTER BANDS OF DEEP MOISTURE WILL ADVECT NE INTO               
THE XTRM SRN CWA LATE THIS MORNING AND INTO WEST CENTRAL MISSOURI               
DURING THE AFTN...WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES RISING TO AROUND 2             
INCHES. MODEL GRIDS AND FCST SOUNDINGS SHOW A LACK OF A                         
CAP...ESPECIALLY FOR THE SERN TWO THIRDS OF THE CWA. AFTN                       
HEATING ALONE WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR THE GENERATE SCT                           
THUNDERSTORMS...AS MLCAPES RISE TO NR 2500 J/KG. WK QG                          
FORCING/DEFORMATION ASSOCIATED WITH ANY SHORTWAVE WILL SERVE TO                 
INCREASE THE THREAT.                                                            
CONVECTION TO DIMINISH DURING THE EVENING WITH THE ONSET OF                     
NIGHTTIME COOLING. HOWEVER...THERE WILL STILL BE SUFFICIENT WEAK                
UPPER FORCING WITH THE APPROACH OF THE UPPER SHR AXIS TO GENERATE               
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS.                                            
THE NRN PORTION OF THE UPPER TROUGH EVENTUALLY GETS PICK UP BY WEAK             
WESTERLIES WITH THE UPPER SHEAR AXIS TO SLOWLY PROGRESS EAST THROUGH            
THE CWA. THE SHEAR AXIS PASSES THROUGH THE XTRM NWRN CWA EARLY                  
SUNDAY....THUS LIMITING THE THREAT OF PRECIPITATION. ACROSS THE REST            
OF THE CWA...JUST AHEAD OF THE SHEAR AXIS...AFTN HEATING IN                     
COMBINATION WITH WEAK UPPER FORCING SHOULD ALLOW FOR THE DEVELOPMENT            
OF SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS IN AN UNCAPPED ENVIRONMENT.                          
THE PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO END IN THE ERN CWA SUNDAY NIGHT                
WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE SHEAR AXIS.                                             
OTHERWISE...TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER THIS WEEKEND DUE TO CLOUD               
COVER AND BEING UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF COOLER S/SSE H8 TRAJECTORIES.            
DB                                                                              
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
FOR THE 18Z TAFS...WARM FRONT HAS LIFTED NORTH OF THE KANSAS CITY               
TAF SITES...AND WE WILL SEE THE WINDS A BIT STRONGER DURING THE                 
AFTERNOON HOURS TO THE SOUTH OF THIS BOUNDARY. THE FRONT WILL BE                
LIFTING NORTH OF THE ST JOSEPH TAF SITE SHORTLY...WHICH SHOULD END              
THE HAZE IN THE REGION.                                                         
BETTER INSTABILITY AT THIS POINT ACROSS EASTERN KANSAS BUT LOOKING              
AT RUC MODEL...SHOWING VORT LOBE LIFTING INTO EAST CENTRAL KANSAS               
AND WEST CENTRAL MISSOURI LATE THIS AFTERNOON THAT MAY ALSO SUPPORT             
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IN THOSE AREAS...SO WILL CONTINUE WITH THE             
TEMPO GROUP TO COVER THIS POTENTIAL.                                            
PC                                                                              
&&                                                                              
.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
MO...NONE.                                                                      
KS...NONE.                                                                      
$$                                                                              
</pre> mo                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO                           
410 PM CDT FRI AUG 17 2007                                                      
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
SHORT RANGE (TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)...                                         
CU STARTING TO BUBBLE ALONG INSTABILITY AXIS THAT RUNS FROM                     
SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA INTO THE LAKE REGION OF MISSOURI ALONG                       
OLD STATIONARY BOUNDARY.  ISOLD CONVECTION POPPING ACROSS                       
SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA AND IN MISSOURI LAKE DISTRICT WHERE AFTERNOON                
TEMPERATURES HAVE CLIMBED TO CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES.  BROADBRUSHED             
HIGHER SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ALONG BOUNDARY FOR THE EVENING                        
HOURS...THEN DIMINSH SLIGHTLY THROUGH THE BULK OF THE OVERNIGHT...AS            
ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL BE DIURNALLY DRIVEN.                               
GIVEN BOUNDARY IN THE AREA...EAST TO SOUTHEAST BOUNDARY FLOW...AND              
BOUNTIFUL BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE...IT IS LIKELY THERE WILL BE                  
FOG/HAZE DEVELOPMENT AGAIN TONIGHT.  DENSE FOG FORMATION WAS                    
ISOLATED LAST NIGHT...AND SINCE BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW WILL BE A LITTLE            
STRONGER TONIGHT...WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY TYPE OF ADVISORY FOR TONIGHT.           
DECIDED TO UP POPS A LITTLE AFTER 09 UTC...AS RUC/NAM12 AND LOCAL               
WRF ALL DEPICTING DECENT ISENTROPIC FORCING ALNG 308-310K SURFACES              
IN RESPONSE TO NOCTURNAL 25-30KT LLJ.  THE REST OF SATURDAY WILL BE             
SOMEWHAT OF A TRANSITION DAY AS THE FIRST OF SEVERAL BANDS                      
ASSOCIATED WITH ERIN ENCROACH ON THE FORECAST AREA.  GFS IS COMING              
MORE IN LINE WITH NAM IN TERMS OF TRAJECTORY OF MID-TROPOSPHERIC                
REMNANTS OF ERIN.  BOTH NAM AND GFS EJECT PIECES OF SYSTEM ACROSS               
THE AREA ON SATURDAY...WHICH LIKELY WILL RESULTS IN PERIODS OF                  
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDER.  MAIN UPPER CENTER BECOMES               
CAUGHT UP IN WESTERLIES ON SUNDAY...AND IN TURN WILL ENHANCE BNDRY              
AND H8 MOISTURE FLUX INTO AREA.  INCREASED POPS INTO THE HIGH CHANCE            
CATEGORY FOR NOW...AND WILL LET LATER SHIFTS DECIDE WHETHER TO BUMP             
POPS INTO LIKELY CATEGORY.                                                      
CONVECTIVE DEBRIS SATURDAY MORNING AND INCREASING MID-HIGH CLOUDS               
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...WILL LIMIT HEATING ENOUGH TO SHAVE A FEW                  
DEGREES OFF MAX TEMPERATURES.  BASED ON TEMPERATURE TRENDS                      
TODAY...ANY SUN WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO RISE QUICKLY AS H8                   
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN AROUND 20C BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...THUS             
LEANED TOWARD WARMER MAV AS GUIDE.  GIVEN EXPECTED COOLER                       
TEMPERATURES...WILL LET HEAT ADVISORY THAT IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM              
TODAY...EXPIRE AS SCHEDULE GIVEN THAT HEAT INDICES TODAY STRUGGLED              
TO REACH 100 TODAY WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S.                   
OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL BE FAIRLY PERSISTENT...AND                          
DECIDED ONLY TO TWEAK PREVIOUS FORECAST NUMBERS.                                
24                                                                              
MEDIUM RANGE (MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...                                         
OPERATIONAL 12Z GFS HAS COME IN LINE BETTER WITH THE PREVIOUS GFS               
ENSEMBLES DEPICTING A MORE DAMPENED AND SLOWER SOLUTION TO A LARGE              
CHUNK OF WAVE ENERGY...AND ASSOCIATED SFC FRONTAL BOUNDARY                      
PROPAGATING OVER THE CNTRL CONUS RIDGE AXIS BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT               
WEEK. THIS LEADS TO SLIGHTLY BETTER CONFIDENCE IN THE OVERALL                   
SYNOPTIC SITUATION...HOWEVER TYPICALLY QUESTIONABLE HANDLING OF                 
TROPICAL AND SUBTROPICAL FEATURES BY GLOBAL MODELS LEAVES MUCH                  
UNCERTAINTY PRESENT IN THIS MEDIUM RANGE PACKAGE. THE AFOREMENTIONED            
NRN STREAM WAVE WILL PROGRESS ACROSS THE NRN CONUS BEGINNING ON                 
TUESDAY ACCOMPANIED BY A ZONAL 100+KT UPPER JET SEGMENT. GIVEN THE              
ZONAL FLOW CHARACTERISTICS AND GENERAL LACK OF PRESSURE RISES OVER              
SRN CANADA...EXPECT ONLY SLOW SWD PROGRESSION OF THE TRUE SFC                   
FRONT...WITH MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE PROCESSES PROVIDING THE BEST                  
FRONTAL MOVEMENT. HAVE TAILORED HIGHEST PRECIP CHANCES ACROSS NRN               
MISSOURI LATE IN THE WEEK WITH FRONT EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN IOWA FOR             
MOST OF THE PERIOD.                                                             
GREATEST UNCERTAINTY STEMS FROM THE TROPICS WHERE THE FINAL REMNANTS            
OF ERIN LOOK TO BECOME ABSORBED IN THE MEAN WLY FLOW EARLY IN THE               
WEEK. QUITE A WIDE RANGE OF FORECASTS AVAILABLE...WITH THE NAM-WRF              
QUICKEST AND DRIEST WITH THE SYSTEM...SEEMINGLY LOSING TOO MUCH DEEP            
TROPICAL MOISTURE ALONG THE WAY TO THE CNTRL CONUS. GFS SEEMS TO BE             
GETTING A BETTER HANDLE ON ERIN EJECTING SEVERAL SHORTWAVES AND                 
ASSOCIATED MOISTURE NWD ON THE WRN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER RIDGE                 
AXIS...WHILE KEEPING THE MAIN CIRCULATION CENTER TRAPPED IN THE SRN             
HIGH PLAINS. NOT CERTAIN ON HOW MUCH ENERGY WILL NECESSARILY BECOME             
TRAPPED NEAR THE RIDGING...THOUGH IT APPEARS ERIN WILL AT LEAST                 
CARVE OUT A DISCERNIBLE HEIGHT WEAKNESS OVER THE SRN PLAINS...MUCH              
LIKE WHAT WAS SEEN DURING THE LATTER HALF OF JUNE AND EARLY JULY.               
THIS MIDLEVEL WEAKNESS WILL EVEN BE REINFORCED DURING THE MIDWEEK               
PERIOD BY A SUBTROPICAL LOW RETROGRADING WWD ALONG THE GULF COAST IN            
ADVANCE OF HURRICANE DEAN. THEREFORE...CANNOT ENVISION MUCH OF AN               
EML ADVECTING OVER THE AREA NEXT WEEK...THUS LIMITING BOTH HIGH                 
TEMPS TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE...AND CAPPING INVERSION STRENGTH                
THAT WOULD SUPPRESS DEEP CONVECTION. HOWEVER...AFTER THE EXPECTED               
DEPARTURE OF ERIN ON MONDAY...LITTLE IN THE WAY OF A WELL DEFINED               
FOCUSING MECHANISM APPEARS TO EXIST...SO HAVE NOT INCLUDED ANY                  
MENTION OF WIDESPREAD PRECIP...THOUGH GIVEN ONLY WEAK CAPPING AND               
THE LIKELIHOOD OF SUBTLE DISTURBANCES TRAVERSING NWD FROM THE                   
SUBTROPICAL GULF LOW...CAN ENVISION SOME ISOLATED AFTERNOON                     
CONVECTIVE SHOWERS OR MORNING SHOWERS DERIVED FROM ISENTROPIC LIFT.             
BETTER PRECIP CHANCES WILL ARRIVE ACROSS THE LOWER MISSOURI RIVER               
VALLEY BY LATE IN THE WEEK AS MIDLEVEL ENERGY FROM THE SOUTH BECOMES            
ABSORBED WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY ASSOCIATED WITH A SERIES OF NRN              
STREAM WAVES. TIMING UNCERTAINTY REMAINS...HOWEVER OVERALL PATTERN              
WOULD SUPPORT MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWER ACTIVITY AND A RETURN TO MUCH              
MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES.                                                   
21                                                                              
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION...                                                             
/1249 PM CDT FRI AUG 17 2007/                                                   
TWEAK TEMPERATURES...DEWPOINTS AND HEAT INDICES FOR TODAY BASED ON              
LATEST TRENDS. FOG AND LOW CEILINGS TAPERED MORNING HEATING A LITTLE            
BIT...HOWEVER AS SKIES CLEAR TEMPERATURES CLIMBING RAPIDLY. EXPECT              
PERIOD OF MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TO BE SHORT LIVED AS UNCAPPED                      
ATMOSPHERE WILL ALLOW CU/TCU DEVELOPMENT IN THE 19-20 UTC TIMEFRAME.            
AS A RESULT OF THE DELAYED HEATING AND EXPECTED AFTERNOON CLOUD                 
COVER...SHAVED A DEGREE OR TWO OFF MAX TEMPERATURES.  IN                        
ADDITION...INCREASED POPS A LITTLE...THOUGH STILL KEPT THREAT IN                
SLIGHT CHANCE CATEGORY.  NAM AND LOCAL WRF SHOWING ISOLD TO SCTD                
TSRA ALONG AND EAST OF INSTABILITY AXIS THAT RUNS FROM NEAR FNB...TO            
MKC...TO DMO.  WEAK MID-LEVEL WINDS SHOULD KEEP COVERAGE ISOLD AND              
MOST ACTIVITY THAT DEVELOPS BELOW SEVERE LIMITS.                                
24                                                                              
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
FOR THE 18Z TAFS...WITH LINGERING BOUNDARIES AND DAYTIME                        
HEATING...SOME ISOLATED STORMS ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND            
EARLY EVENING HOURS. CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN THE INITIATION AND                    
COVERAGE OF ANY CONVECTION...THEREFORE NO THUNDER WILL BE ADDED TO              
THE TAFS...BUT WILL DENOTE SCATTERED CB DEVELOPMENT.  BOUNDARY                  
EXPECTED TO LIFT A LITTLE NORTH AND EAST THIS AFTERNOON AND                     
EVENING...HOWEVER TAF SITES WILL REMAIN UNDER A MOIST...E-SE SURFACE            
FLOW REGIME.  SIMILAR TO LAST NIGHT...EXPECT LIGHT HAZE AND BR TO               
DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT...WITH A BRIEF PERIOD OF IFR FOG NOT OUT OF THE            
QUESTION.  NAM/LOCAL WRF/RUC DEPICTING WEAK ISENTROPIC FORCING ALONG            
THE 308-310K SURFACES...WITH A BULLSEYE OF PRESSURE ADVECTION RIGHT             
OVER THE TOP OF TERMINAL SITES.  DECIDED TO INTRODUCED VCSH AROUND              
10-11 UTC ALL TERMINAL SITES TO ACCOUNT FOR POTENTIAL ELEVATED                  
DEVELOPMENT.                                                                    
24                                                                              
&&                                                                              
.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
MO...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM FRIDAY FOR MOZ028-MOZ029-MOZ037-                  
     MOZ038-MOZ039-MOZ040-MOZ043-MOZ044-MOZ045-MOZ046-MOZ053-MOZ054.            
KS...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM FRIDAY FOR KSZ057-KSZ060-KSZ103-                  
     KSZ104-KSZ105.                                                             
$$                                                                              
</pre> mo                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO                           
1249 PM CDT FRI AUG 17 2007                                                     
.UPDATE...                                                                      
TWEAK TEMPERATURES...DEWPOINTS AND HEAT INDICES FOR TODAY BASED ON              
LATEST TRENDS. FOG AND LOW CEILINGS TAPERED MORNING HEATING A LITTLE            
BIT...HOWEVER AS SKIES CLEAR TEMPERATURES CLIMBING RAPIDLY. EXPECT              
PERIOD OF MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TO BE SHORT LIVED AS UNCAPPED                      
ATMOSPHERE WILL ALLOW CU/TCU DEVELOPMENT IN THE 19-20 UTC TIMEFRAME.            
AS A RESULT OF THE DELAYED HEATING AND EXPECTED AFTERNOON CLOUD                 
COVER...SHAVED A DEGREE OR TWO OFF MAX TEMPERATURES.  IN                        
ADDITION...INCREASED POPS A LITTLE...THOUGH STILL KEPT THREAT IN                
SLIGHT CHANCE CATEGORY.  NAM AND LOCAL WRF SHOWING ISOLD TO SCTD                
TSRA ALONG AND EAST OF INSTABILITY AXIS THAT RUNS FROM NEAR FNB...TO            
MKC...TO DMO.  WEAK MID-LEVEL WINDS SHOULD KEEP COVERAGE ISOLD AND              
MOST ACTIVITY THAT DEVELOPS BELOW SEVERE LIMITS.                                
24                                                                              
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION...                                                             
/705 AM CDT FRI AUG 17 2007/                                                    
SEVERAL CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM WITH THE FIRST BEING THE                     
DEVELOPMENT OF FOG ACROSS NORTHERN MISSOURI. CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT              
WINDS HAVE LED TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF AREAS OF FOG WITH SEVERAL                  
LOCATIONS EXPERIENCING DENSE FOG. STLT INDICATES THAT THE FOG IS                
BECOMING MORE WIDESPREAD...THEREFORE...HAVE ISSUED A DENSE FOG                  
ADVISORY FOR EARLY THIS MORNING. THE FOG WILL RAPIDLY DISSIPATE                 
AFTER SUNRISE.                                                                  
THE NEXT CONCERN IS THE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG               
THE MISSOURI AND KANSAS BORDER...TO THE NW OF KANSAS CITY. THE                  
THUNDERSTORMS ARE DEVELOPING IN AN AREA OF WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT                 
WITHIN THE 310K LAYER. THE CONVECTION IS ROOTED AT AROUND 770 MB.               
THE NAM SUGGEST THAT THE ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN WITH             
THE THREAT OF ANY CONVECTION ENDING BY LATE MORNING.                            
OTHERWISE...A SERIES OF OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM YESTERDAY EVENING               
HAS MADE THE FRONTAL LOCATION DIFFICULT. THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES HAVE            
PUSHED INTO SWRN MO WITH THE TRUE FRONT LIKELY CONSIDERABLY FURTHER             
NORTH NEAR I-70. MODELS SUGGEST THAT WEAK CONVERGENCE ALONG THE                 
OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES WILL BE RESTRICTED TO SWRN MO THIS                           
AFTN...HOWEVER...CANNOT RULE OUT AREAS OF WEAK CONVERGENCE FURTHER              
NORTH THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE WRN AND SRN CWA. THE CAP WILL CONTINUE            
TO WEAKEN TODAY WITH AFTN CAPES FROM 1500-2500 J/KG. THE CONVECTION             
IS EXPECTED TO BE ISOLATED WITH SMALL HAIL AND STRONG WIND GUSTS                
POSSIBLE. ANY CONVECTION WILL DISSIPATE THIS EVENING...BUT WILL KEEP            
A SLGT CHC OF CONVECTION FOR EXTREME NERN MO LATE TONIGHT DUE TO                
WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT.                                                           
TEMPERATURES WILL BE A LITTLE COOLER TODAY DUE TO COOLER LOW LVL                
E/SE H8 TRAJECTORIES. TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE QUITE WARM FOR                 
AREAS SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 70. THE HEAT IN COMBINATION WITH THE                  
HUMIDITY WILL PUSH HEAT INDICES TO BETWEEN 98 AND 104. ALTHOUGH THE             
HEAT INDICES WILL NOT REACH ADVISORY CRITERIA...DO NOT PLAN TO DROP             
THE ADVISORY.                                                                   
THE THREAT OF CONVECTION WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE ACROSS THE SERN CWA            
SATURDAY WITH THE APPROACH OF THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL STORM ERIN.              
AS PER STLT...THE CIRCULATION STILL APPEARS RATHER IMPRESSIVE IN                
SWRN TX. BELIEVE THE GFS/NAM IS TOO WEAK AND DISORGANIZED WITH THIS             
FEATURE AND PREFER THE STRONGER UKMET/ECMWF. THE CAP WILL BE RATHER             
WEAK ACROSS THE SERN CWA SATURDAY AFTN WITH SCATTERED CONVECTIVE                
DEVELOPMENT LIKELY DURING PEAK AFTN HEATING. WARMER MID LVL                     
TEMPERATURES AND A LITTLE STRONGER CAPPING WILL KEEP THE CONVECTION             
ISOLATED ACROSS THE REST OF THE CWA.                                            
AS THE UPPER SHEAR ZONE DRIFTS NORTH IN KANSAS AND SRN MO SATURDAY              
NIGHT...THE THREAT OF CONVECTION WILL SPREAD NORTH. COPIOUS MOISTURE IN A       
WEAKLY CAPPED ENVIRONMENT WILL PROVIDE FOR A THREAT OF OF CONVECTION            
FOR MOST OF THE CWA ON SUNDAY.                                                  
DB                                                                              
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
FOR THE 18Z TAFS...WITH LINGERING BOUNDARIES AND DAYTIME                        
HEATING...SOME ISOLATED STORMS ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND            
EARLY EVENING HOURS. CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN THE INITIATION AND                    
COVERAGE OF ANY CONVECTION...THEREFORE NO THUNDER WILL BE ADDED TO              
THE TAFS...BUT WILL DENOTE SCATTERED CB DEVELOPMENT.  BOUNDARY                  
EXPECTED TO LIFT A LITTLE NORTH AND EAST THIS AFTERNOON AND                     
EVENING...HOWEVER TAF SITES WILL REMAIN UNDER A MOIST...E-SE SURFACE            
FLOW REGIME.  SIMILAR TO LAST NIGHT...EXPECT LIGHT HAZE AND BR TO               
DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT...WITH A BRIEF PERIOD OF IFR FOG NOT OUT OF THE            
QUESTION.  NAM/LOCAL WRF/RUC DEPICTING WEAK ISENTROPIC FORCING ALONG            
THE 308-310K SURFACES...WITH A BULLSEYE OF PRESSURE ADVECTION RIGHT             
OVER THE TOP OF TERMINAL SITES.  DECIDED TO INTRODUCED VCSH AROUND              
10-11 UTC ALL TERMINAL SITES TO ACCOUNT FOR POTENTIAL ELEVATED                  
DEVELOPMENT.                                                                    
SF                                                                              
&&                                                                              
.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
MO...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM FRIDAY FOR MOZ028-MOZ029-MOZ037-                  
     MOZ038-MOZ039-MOZ040-MOZ043-MOZ044-MOZ045-MOZ046-MOZ053-MOZ054.            
     DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM FRIDAY FOR MOZ001-MOZ002-MOZ003-             
     MOZ004-MOZ005-MOZ006-MOZ007-MOZ008-MOZ011>017-MOZ023>025.                  
KS...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM FRIDAY FOR KSZ057-KSZ060-KSZ103-                  
     KSZ104-KSZ105.                                                             
$$                                                                              
</pre> mo                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM                                         
928 PM MDT THU AUG 16 2007                                                      
.UPDATE...LOWERED OR REMOVED POPS FROM THE W AND NC ZONES...AS WELL             
AS THE FAR SE ZONES FOR LATE TONIGHT. REMAINDER OF FORECAST LOOKS               
GOOD. 40                                                                        
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION...253 PM MDT THU AUG 16 2007                                   
WATER VAPOR LOOP WITH SUPPORT FROM LATEST 400-250MB AIRCRAFT WIND               
PLOT SHOWS A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AROUND 300MB PUSHING                  
SLOWLY NW ACROSS CENTRAL NM. CONVECTION HAS FIRED ACROSS THE                    
NORTHERN AND WESTERN MTNS AHEAD OF THIS DISTURBANCE WITHIN A WEAKLY             
UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE PER LATEST SPC MESOANALYSIS. 20Z SFC ANALYSIS               
SHOWS A 1006MB LOW PRES TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE STATE               
STRETCHING NE INTO SE CO AND NE NM. 18Z RUC/12Z NAM/GFS ALONG WITH              
HPC QPF FIELD INDICATES SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE               
BNDRY THIS EVE OVER NE NM FROM KRTN EAST TO KCAO. LEFT SLIGHT CHANCE            
POPS IN THIS AREA WITH BETTER CHANCE POPS FURTHER WEST WHERE ONGOING            
CONVECTION SHOULD CONTINUE INTO THE EARLY EVE HOURS.                            
SIDED WITH THE 12Z GFS/MM5/ECMWF MODELS FOR THIS FORECAST PACKAGE PER           
NHC AND HPC COORDINATION REGARDING REMNANTS OF ERIN. COMPLICATED                
SCENARIO TO DEVELOP OVER THE CWFA AS THE REMNANT LOW FROM ERIN MOVES            
NW TOWARD W TX/E NM THROUGH FRI/SAT WHILE MID AND UPPER LEVEL HIGH              
PRES BUILDS OVER AZ. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL SURGE NW INTO THE E                
PLAINS FRI WITH SHOWERS AND STORMS BREAKING OUT AHEAD OF THE AREA OF            
LOW PRES. THINK THE BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIP WILL BE OVER THE FAR SE              
PLAINS AS THE 700MB TRANSPORT REMAINS EASTERLY BEFORE SHUTTING DOWN             
SAT AS RIDGING BUILDS FARTHER TO THE WEST. LEFT CHANCE POPS FOR SE              
PLAINS WITH QPF AMOUNTS BTWN 0.25-0.50 OVER E                                   
CHAVES...ROOSEVELT...AND CURRY COUNTIES TO REFLECT POSSIBILITY FOR              
HEAVY RAINFALL IF INDEED SYSTEM PUSHES FARTHER WEST THAN FCST.                  
LOWERED MAX TEMPS/RAISED MIN TEMPS IN THE SE BENEATH CLOUD SHIELD               
ASSCD WITH CONVECTION. MODELS THEN SHOVE REMNANTS OF ERIN SW INTO               
NORTHERN MEXICO BENEATH THE RIDGE WITH STRONG DRYING NOTED FROM                 
700-500MB OVER THE NW CORNER OF STATE. LEFT BEST POPS IN THE HIGHER             
TERRAIN FOR NEXT WEEK WITH TEMPS REBOUNDING TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL            
IN MANY AREAS.                                                                  
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
FARMINGTON......................  63  94  63  95 /  20  20  20  20              
GALLUP..........................  55  89  56  89 /  20  20  20  10              
GRANTS..........................  53  88  54  88 /  10  20  20  10              
GLENWOOD........................  59  89  60  90 /  20  20  10  10              
CHAMA...........................  53  82  47  83 /  30  30  30  20              
LOS ALAMOS......................  56  85  55  86 /  20  20  10  10              
RED RIVER.......................  42  75  43  75 /  30  30  20  20              
TAOS............................  51  86  52  88 /  20  20  20  20              
SANTA FE........................  61  88  57  89 /  20  20  20  10              
SANTA FE AIRPORT................  60  90  58  91 /  10  10  10  10              
ESPANOLA........................  59  91  58  92 /  10  10  10  10              
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS.............  70  92  68  94 /   5  10  10  10              
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY..............  63  93  64  96 /   5  10  10  10              
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS...........  65  90  65  91 /  10  20  10  10              
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA...........  64  93  65  93 /  10  10  10  10              
SOCORRO.........................  63  93  63  94 /   5  10  10  10              
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST.........  57  85  57  86 /  10  20  10  10              
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA...............  53  90  55  91 /   5  20  10  10              
CARRIZOZO.......................  62  88  62  89 /   5  10  10  10              
RUIDOSO.........................  58  79  57  77 /  10  20  20  10              
RATON...........................  54  87  54  87 /  20  20  10  10              
LAS VEGAS.......................  53  86  52  85 /  10  20  10  10              
ROY.............................  61  85  60  84 /  10  10  10  10              
CLAYTON.........................  61  89  62  88 /  10  10  10  20              
SANTA ROSA......................  62  91  63  89 /   5  10  10  10              
TUCUMCARI.......................  65  91  66  90 /   0  10  20  20              
FORT SUMNER.....................  59  87  63  86 /   0  20  20  20              
CLOVIS..........................  63  85  65  85 /   0  20  30  30              
PORTALES........................  63  85  66  84 /   0  20  30  30              
ROSWELL.........................  66  88  68  87 /   5  20  20  20              
&&                                                                              
.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
NONE.                                                                           
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
GUYER                                                                           
</pre> nm                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY                                          
150 PM EDT SAT AUG 18 2007                                                      
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM IS SETTLING INTO THE AREA TODAY. WITH THIS               
SYSTEM A NORTHWEST AIR FLOW WILL BRING IN COOL AND DRY AIR FROM CANADA.         
THIS WILL BRING PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES UNTIL SUNDAY NIGHT WHEN A WARM              
FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST WILL BRING IN MORE CLOUDS AND A CHANCE          
OF SHOWERS TO NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA. IN GENERAL...TEMPERATURES                 
WILL START OFF THE WEEKEND BELOW NORMAL WITH SUNDAY MORNING LOWS                
IN THE 40S...THEN DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO THE 70S                   
AGAIN BY MONDAY.                                                                
&&                                                                              
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...                                                 
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS OVER MUCH OF OUR                   
NORTHERN AND EASTERN ZONES AS OF THIS WRITING. AS A COOL NORTHWESTERLY          
FLOW CONTINUES TO PICK UP MOISTURE OFF LAKE ONTARIO AND FLOW                    
UPSLOPE...CLOUDS SHOULD PREVAIL THIS MORNING. RUC SOUNDING                      
PROFILES SHOW LOW-LEVEL DRYING TAKING HOLD DURING THE EARLY TO                  
MID-AFTERNOON...SO THE CLOUDS SHOULD BREAK UP BY THIS TIME. IN                  
GENERAL...CLOUDY TO PARTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS SHOULD YIELD TO                     
INCREASING SUNSHINE AS THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES FOR MUCH OF THE                 
FORECAST AREA. OVER THE WESTERN FINGER LAKES REGION AND DOWN INTO               
THE WYOMING AND LACKAWANNA VALLEYS IN PA...SUNSHINE SHOULD BE THE               
RULE TODAY.                                                                     
NEAR-TERM SKY COVER GRIDS WERE ADJUSTED OWING TO ABOVE REASONING.               
WIND...WIND GUST...AND TEMPERATURE GRIDS WERE ALSO TWEAKED                      
SLIGHTLY. OTHERWISE...NO CHANGES FROM CONTINUITY.                               
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...                                         
HIGH PRESSURE CRESTS OVERHEAD TONIGHT...AND WITH LIGHT WINDS AND                
COLD AIRMASS IN GENERAL...OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE CONSIDERABLY BELOW             
NORMAL...POSSIBLY NEAR RECORD. ONE WRINKLE TO THAT COULD BE HIGH                
CLOUDS FROM ANY UPSTREAM CONVECTION STREAMING IN LATE WHICH IS                  
BEING INDICATED BY GFS/NAM RH PROGS.                                            
THE FORECAST GETS A LITTLE MORE INTERESTING TOWARD 00Z MONDAY AND               
BEYOND THROUGH TUESDAY. GFS/NAM/GEM AND GGEM ALL AGREE THAT A                   
CONFLUENT ZONE WILL SET UP OVER ERN CANADA AND NEW ENGLAND...WITH               
SFC HIGH PRESSURE REINFORCING ITSELF OFF TO OUR NORTHEAST.                      
MEANWHILE...FLAT RIDING ALOFT WILL BE DEVELOPING OVER THE WESTERN               
GTLKS BY TUESDAY.IN BETWEEN...A RATHER STRONG BAROCLINIC ZONE IS                
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND NUDGE EASTWARD TO EXTEND FROM MICHIGAN-                 
WRN PA-MARYLAND BY TUESDAY MORNING. THIS FRONTAL ZONE SHOULD BE                 
FAIRLY ACTIVE AS MOISTURE ADVECTING IN FROM TROPICAL REMNANTS IN                
TEXAS...AND ALSO FROM EASTERLY FLOW AROUND THE NEW ENGLAND HIGH                 
PRESSURE CELL WILL BE FEEDING INTO THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF                 
STRONG 200 MB JET ABOVE.                                                        
THE BIGGEST QUESTION IS HOW FAR NORTH WILL THESE PARAMETERS REACH               
TO CAUSE RAINFALL...AS THE DRY HIGH OVER NEW ENGLAND FILTERS BACK               
TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST. HAVE NOTED A GENERAL SENSE IN THE MODELS                  
TOWARD A DRYER TREND IN NY...WHILE NEPA MAY SEE MORE CLOUDS AND A               
LITTLE LIGHT PRECIP FROM TIME TO TIME SUNDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.                
THE ENSEMBLES WOULD SUGGEST A WETTER SOLUTION AND FURTHER                       
NORTH...BUT WITH THE EXCEPTION OF NORTHEAST PA...I SEE LITTLE                   
INDICATION OF THAT IN OPERATIONAL RUNS OF NAM/GFS/GEM/GGEM. HAVE                
THUS NUDGED THE FORECAST TOWARD THAT DRIER DIRECTION...WITH MAIN                
FOCUS FOR ANY PRECIP CONFINED TO THE SRN BORDER COUNTIES IN                     
NY...AND ACROSS NEPA WHERE HIGHEST (BUT STILL CHANCE FOR NOW) RAIN              
PROBABILITY WILL EXIST. CONVECTIVE INDICES ALL APPEAR TO BE STABLE...           
SO HAVE REMOVED MENTION OF THUNDER THROUGH TUESDAY.                             
THINGS TO CONSIDER...A WEAKER HIGH IN NEW ENGLAND...OR EVEN SLIGHTLY MORE       
NEWD PUSH BY THE WARM FRONT WILL MAKE A HUGE DIFFERENCE FOR NEPA/CNY            
FORECASTS...NOT ONLY IN COVERAGE OF RAINFALL...BUT ALSO INTENSITY               
AND QPF AMOUNTS FOR MY AREA. CONFIDENCE IN THIS FORECAST...ESPECIALLY           
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA IS RATHER LOW.                                        
GENERALLY ACCEPTED A BLENDED MOS GUIDANCE AS THERMAL FIELDS                     
GRADUALLY WARM UP...BUT WILL BE TEMPERED BY CLOUDS IN THE SOUTH.                
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...                                  
FRONTAL BOUNDARY HANGING TO OUR SOUTHWEST LIFTS TO THE NORTHEAST                
EARLY IN THE PERIOD. THIS BOUNDARY PROGGED TO HANG OUT JUST NORTH               
OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH A SERIES OF WAVES RIPPLING ALONG IT THAT              
WILL KEEP AT LEAST LOW CHC FOR SHRA IN THE FORECAST MUCH OF THE                 
TIME...AS IT IS TOO DIFFICULT TO TIME ANY BEST PRECIP CHC TIMES                 
THIS FAR OUT. OTHERWISE...UPPER RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE SE U.S.                 
WILL KEEP MILD TEMPS ACROSS THE AREA WITH SLOW WARMING TREND BY                 
WEEKS END, BEFORE TROF TRIES TO DIG SWD AND SUPPRESS RIDGE FURTHER              
SOUTH.                                                                          
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...                                    
VFR CONDITIONS THRU THE PERIOD. ANY DIURNAL CU WILL DISSIPATE                   
LATE THIS AFTN...LEAVING MAINLY CLEAR SKIES THIS EVENING WITH                   
INCREASE IN HIGH AND MID CLDS OVERNIGHT...ESP ACROSS ELM, AVP.                  
HAVE LEFT FOG OUT OF ELM AT THIS POINT, GIVEN EXPECTED BKN HIGH                 
CLDS...BUT SHOULD CLDS BE LESS THAN ANTICIPATED, FOG COULD BECOME               
HIGHER PROBABILITY LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY. SCT/BKN MID AND              
HIGH DECK CONTINUES THRU SUNDAY MORNING. JUST SMALL CHC FOR LGT                 
SHRA OR SPRINKLE AT ELM AND AVP.                                                
NWLY WINDS AROUND 10 KTS GUSTS TO 20 KTS THIS AFTN WILL BECOME                  
LIGHT THIS EVENING.                                                             
FOR MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...                                                  
VFR CONDITIONS UNDER HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUE FOR MONDAY, OUTSIDE                 
OF POTENTIAL MORNING FOG AT ELM. A WARM FRONT JUST SOUTHWEST OF                 
THE FA COULD BRING SOME LIGHT SHRA TO THE TAF SITES TUESDAY NIGHT               
INTO WEDNESDAY. NO WORSE THAN MVFR RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED.                       
&&                                                                              
.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
PA...NONE.                                                                      
NY...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</pre> ny                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY                                          
126 AM EDT SAT AUG 18 2007                                                      
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT. THIS SYSTEM                  
WILL BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS TO THE AREA OVERNIGHT...FOLLOWED BY                
A SHOT OF COOL AND DRIER AIR. THIS INCOMING AIR MASS WILL BRING A               
PARTLY CLOUDY AND DRY WEEKEND...WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S AND                 
70S.                                                                            
AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT WILL BRING THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR                   
THUNDERSTORMS BACK INTO THE AREA FROM LATER SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.           
&&                                                                              
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...                                         
VERY UNUSUAL SEVERE WEATHER EVENT DEVELOPED ACROSS THE AREA THIS                
EVENING. STRONG UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA IN                
NORTHWEST FLOW RESULTED IN A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING OVER              
THE FINGER LAKES AND CENTRAL SOUTHERN TIER OF NEW YORK EARLY THIS               
EVENING. REFLECTIVITY RETURNS WITH THESE STORMS WERE NOT VERY                   
IMPRESSIVE... ESPECIALLY AS THEY MOVED EAST ACROSS NORTHEAST PA                 
AND THE WESTERN CATSKILLS... HOWEVER A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR                
DOWNBURST WINDS... AS INDICATED BY INVERTED V RUC SOUNDINGS...                  
RESULTED IN NUMEROUS DAMAGING WIND REPORTS.                                     
THE PRIMARY LINE OF STORMS HAS NOW MOVED SOUTHEAST OF THE CWA...                
HOWEVER SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH EVEN SOME EMBEDDED THUNDER CONTINUE              
TO DEVELOP UPSTREAM ACROSS CENTRAL NEW YORK. LATEST RUC SOUNDING                
AT SYR SHOWS DEEP LAYER CAPE GONE BY AROUND MIDNIGHT AS VERY DRY                
AIR ADVECTS INTO THE AREA IN NW FLOW. LOW-LEVEL INVERTED V                      
SIGNATURES ARE ALSO NO LONGER IN PLACE... SO DO NOT EXPECT THESE                
SHOWERS TO CAUSE THE PROBLEMS THAT OUR EARLIER STORMS DID. ANY                  
SHOWERS SHOULD BE GONE BEFORE SUNRISE.                                          
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...                          
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION OVER THE                    
WEEKEND. THIS SYSTEM IS STILL EXPECTED TO BRING RAIN-FREE AND COOL              
CONDITIONS. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S...WITH               
EARLY MORNING LOWS WELL DOWN INTO THE 40S. A FEW MID TO UPPER 30S               
ARE EVEN POSSIBLE EARLY SUNDAY IN NORMALLY COLDER SECTIONS.                     
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...                                     
FOLLOWED HPC GUIDANCE. UPPER PATTERN BECOMES MORE FLAT RIDGE                    
ACROSS THE EAST NEXT WEEK WITH FASTER ZONAL FLOW IN PLACE OVER NY/PA.           
LAST COUPLE OF RUNS FROM THE GFS KEEP WAVY FRONTAL BOUNDARY SOUTH               
OF THE AREA THROUGH ABOUT TUESDAY BEFORE LIFTING THE FRONT NORTH                
ACROSS THE AREA THAT WILL KEEP CHCS FOR PRECIP THRU THE END OF THE              
PERIOD.                                                                         
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...                                   
VFR EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. A 4KFT STCU DECK IS EXPECTED TO                
IMPACT SYR/RME THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING...BEFORE IT SCATTERS OUT               
BY MID MORNING ON SATURDAY.                                                     
SCT CU AROUND 5KFT EXPECTED AGAIN TODAY...FALLING APART AFTER                   
SUNSET WITH SOME HIGH CLOUDS LEFTOVER FOR THE OVERNIGHT.                        
WINDS NORTHWESTERLY 5-10KTS OVERNIGHT BEFORE INCREASING TO                      
12G18KTS BY MID MORNING. NORTHWEST WINDS SLACKENING AFTER SUNSET                
TO 5KTS OR LESS.                                                                
FOR SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...                                                 
VFR CONDITIONS UNDER HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUE FOR SUNDAY /OUTSIDE OF              
POTENTIAL MORNING FOG AT ELM/ WITH AN OUTSIDE SHOT OF A SHRA AT                 
ELM/AVP. FOR MONDAY-WEDNESDAY...A WARM FRONT JUST SOUTHWEST OF                  
OUR CWA COULD BRING SHRA TO ELM/AVP AND POSSIBLY TO ITH/BGM WITH                
NO WORSE THAN MVFR RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED.                                       
&&                                                                              
.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
PA...NONE.                                                                      
NY...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SYNOPSIS...MSE                                                                  
NEAR TERM...MSE                                                                 
SHORT TERM...MLJ                                                                
LONG TERM...JML                                                                 
AVIATION...JMA                                                                  
</pre> ny                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC                               
436 PM EDT FRI AUG 17 2007                                                      
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT AND MOVE OFFSHORE                
EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. HIGH PRES WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE FRONT                
AND REMAIN OVER THE AREA THROUGH MIDWEEK.                                       
&&                                                                              
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...                                     
AIR MASS ACROSS THE AREA HAS NOT DESTABILIZED AS PREVIOUSLY                     
THOUGHT DUE TO EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER FROM EARLY MORNING CONVECTION              
UPSTREAM WITH TEMPERATURES ONLY ABLE TO CLIMB INTO THE UPPER                    
80S AND LOWER 90S ACROSS THE AREA. LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY                   
INDICATES MUCH DRIER AIR FILTERING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST IN                     
ASSOCIATION WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE. A VERY MOIST AIRMASS REMAINS                
IN PLACE ACROSS EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL                     
BOUNDARY THAT HAS JUST CROSSED THE MOUNTAINS. MODEL GUIDANCE STILL              
SHOWS PRECIP DEVELOPING OVER THE AREA THIS EVENING WITH THE BULK                
OF ACTIVITY ALONG AND EAST OF THE HIGHWAY 17 CORRIDOR. THE RUC IS               
MOST BULLISH WITH PRECIP WHILE THE GFS IS THE DRIEST. WILL                      
DECREASE POPS TO SLIGHT CHANCE FAR WEST AND OUTER BANKS EARLY THIS              
EVENING WITH CHANCE ELSEWHERE THEN CHANCE POPS EAST LATE TONIGHT                
INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING AS FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA. SEVERE                
THREAT APPEARS TO BE DWINDLING AS TEMPS COOL WITH LOSS OF HEATING               
HOWEVER A FEW STORMS MAY STILL PRODUCE SOME LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS.                
SKIES WILL BE PARTLY CLOUDY FOR THE MOST PART THIS EVENING THEN                 
CLEARING FROM WEST TO EAST LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY SAT. MIN TEMPS               
WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW AND MID 70S INLAND TO THE UPPER 70S                     
BEACHES AND OUTER BANKS.                                                        
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...                     
CLEARING SKIES ON SATURDAY AS HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO THE AREA.                   
WENT WITH A MOS BLEND FOR TEMPS IN THE SHORT TERM WITH HIGHS IN                 
THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S SATURDAY THEN SLIGHTLY COOLER ON SUN                 
WITH SEASONAL TEMPS IN THE UPPER 80S. LOWS WILL BE IN THE UPPER                 
60S TO LOWER 70S SUN WITH MONDAY MORNING TEMPS MOSTLY IN THE                    
LOW/MID 70S.                                                                    
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...                                           
MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL SET UP OVER THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE                
PERIOD...STILL KEEPING EASTERN NC IN TYPICAL SUMMERTIME REGIME. HIGH            
TEMPS INLAND THROUGH FRIDAY GENERALLY IN THE LOW 90S AND MID                    
TO UPPER 80S ALONG THE COAST. OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOW TO UPPER                
70S. JUST ABOVE CLIMO. BETWEEN SFC TROUGH AND SEA BREEZE                        
DEVELOPMENT...HAVE SLIGHT/ISOLATED CHANCE SHOWERS/TSTORMS IN                    
FORECAST EVERY AFTERNOON. NO SIGNIFICANT RAIN EXPECTED THROUGH                  
FRIDAY.                                                                         
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...                                     
GUSTY SWLY FLOW ACROSS RTES THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF A FRONTAL                   
BOUNDARY THAT IS ACROSS THE WESTERN PIEDMONT LATE THIS AFTERNOON.               
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY RELATIVELY QUIET ACROSS ERN NC AS MID LEVEL                 
CLOUDS LIMITED SFC HEATING TDA BUT SUFFICIENT INGREDIENTS EXSIST FOR            
AT LEAST ISOLATED CONVECTION TO DEVELOP ACROSS RTES THROUGH THE                 
EVENING AS THE FRONT APPROACHES. WINDS SHOULD KEEP THE AIRMASS MIXED            
ENOUGH TO PREVENT FOG FROM DEVELOPING THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT                 
HOWEVER GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING WINDS DROPPING OFF LATE TONIGHT AND A            
FEW HOURS OF PATCHY FOG BRINGING IFR/MVFR VSBYS AROUND DAYBREAK. THE            
FRONT WILL BE S OF THE REGION SAT MORNING WITH VFR CONDITIONS AND               
N-NELY FLOW ACROSS RTES THROUGH THE DAY.                                        
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD                   
OUTSIDE OF PATCHY LATE NIGHT FOG EACH NIGHT AND ISOLATED DIURNAL                
CONVECTION MON THROUGH WED.                                                     
&&                                                                              
.MARINE...                                                                      
MODERATE SWLY FLOW CONTINUES ACROSS THE WATERS THIS EVENING AS A                
FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. STRONGEST WINDS/SEAS HAVE            
BEEN AT DIAMOND BUOY WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 KT AND SEAS TO 8 FT BUT                
MOST OF THE WATERS HAVE REACHED SCA CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON WITH              
SEAS UP TO 6 FT AND GUSTS TO 25 KT. THE FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE                
NORTHERN WATERS LATE TONIGHT AND S OF THE AREA BY MID MORNING SAT               
WITH N-NELY WINDS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE WATERS. MODELS AGREE WITH               
POST FRONTAL WINDS AROUND 15-20 KTS THROUGH SAT AS SLOWLY                       
DIMINISHING SAT NIGHT. SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP BELOW 6 FT ACROSS              
ALL WATERS BY MIDDAY SAT AND HAVE KEPT CURRENT ADVISORIES IN PLACE.             
HIGH PRES WILL BUILD INTO THE WATERS SAT NIGHT AND SUN...AND MOVE               
OFFSHORE SUN NIGHT ALLOWING A WARM FRONT TO LIFT N ACROSS THE                   
REGION. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO SLY BEHIND THE FRONT AND ARE EXPECTED TO            
CONTINUE WITH A MAINLY SLY COMPONENT AS HIGH PRES REMAINS SE OF THE             
WATERS WITH A THERMAL TROUGH EXISTS ACROSS THE PIEDMONT.                        
DISTANT LONG PERIOD SWELL FROM HURRICANE DEAN HAS STARTED TO SHOW UP            
AT A FEW BUOYS ALONG THE COAST THIS AFTERNOON. IT IS INITIALLY ONLY             
AROUND A FOOT AND IS MASKED BY THE BIGGER WIND WAVES TODAY BUT THE              
SWELL IS EXPECTED TO BUILD THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND TO              
AROUND 4 FT SUNDAY EVENING AND BECOME DOMINANT AS WINDS DIMINISH SAT            
NIGHT. LONG PERIOD SWELL IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE FORECAST            
PERIOD.                                                                         
.RIP CURRENTS...LONG PERIOD SWELL WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY BUILD                 
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND WITH INCREASED WAVE ENERGY COMES A GREATER              
RISK OF RIP CURRENTLY. HIGH ENERGY SWELLS AROUND A FOOT WITH E-NELY             
ONSHORE WINDS 15-20 KT WILL BRING A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS               
ALONG THE ENTIRE COAST SAT. SWELLS WILL INCREASE TO 3 TO 4 FT SUN               
AND CONTINUE INTO MIDWEEK AND A MODERATE TO HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK IS            
EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.                                                    
&&                                                                              
.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
NC...NONE.                                                                      
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR AMZ135-158.           
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR AMZ150-152-              
     154-156.                                                                   
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SYNOPSIS...JW                                                                   
NEAR TERM...JW                                                                  
SHORT TERM...JW                                                                 
LONG TERM...CLQ                                                                 
AVIATION...SK                                                                   
MARINE...SK                                                                     
</pre> nc                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH                                          
405 AM EDT FRI AUG 17 2007                                                      
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN TODAY AND SATURDAY WITH DRIER AND                   
COOLER WEATHER EXPECTED. A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH THROUGH THE               
OHIO VALLEY SUNDAY AND MONDAY...BRINGING A RETURN TO WARMER                     
TEMPERATURES.                                                                   
&&                                                                              
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...                                                 
WHILE MAIN FRNTL BNDRY APPEARS TO HAVE MOVED SOUTH OF THE OHIO                  
RIVER...SECONDARY CONV BNDRY NOTED FROM SE INDIANA NE ALONG I-71                
TO NEAR KCMH. A FEW TSTMS HAVE DVLPD WITHIN THE LAST HOUR ALONG                 
THIS BNDRY...BTWN KILN AND KCMH. 03Z RUC INDCG SFC CONV AND                     
INSTABILITY AXIS WILL DIMINISH THRU DAYBREAK AS IT SHIFTS SE ACRS               
FCST AREA. HAVE LEFT A VERY LOW PRECIP CHANCE FOR ISOLD CONVECTION              
BTWN NOW AND 12-13Z ALONG AND EAST OF I-71. TEMPS REMAINED IN THE               
70S ERLY THIS MRNG WITH DEWPTS HOVERING NEAR OR JUST BLO 70 DEG.                
LKLY TO SEE SOME PATCHY FOG THRU DAYBREAK...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS                 
THAT SAW RAINFALL THURS AFTN/EVNG.                                              
WV SAT SHWNG VERY NICELY DRIER AIRMASS PUNCHING INTO REGION FROM                
NORTHWEST. THE DRIER AIR BEING DELAYED SOMEWHAT BY AFOREMENTIONED               
CONV AXIS HELPING TO KICK OFF ISOLD TSTMS THIS MRNG. ONCE CONV                  
AXIS PASSES...BNDRY LYR FLO BECOMES NRLY AND INCREASES THRU MID                 
MRNG. THIS WILL HELP TO PUSH SC DECK SOUTH THRU DAYBREAK AND ALLOW              
DRIER AIR TO FILTER INTO REGION. DRIER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO FUNNEL              
INTO FCST AREA THRU THE DAY AS SFC HI PRES BUILDS SOUTH FROM WRN                
GRT LKS. MID LVL HGTS WILL FALL ACRS REGION AS S/WV PASSES THRU                 
LWR GRT LKS THIS AFTN/EVNG. THIS WILL ENSURE COOLER TEMPERATURES                
THIS AFTN...AT LEAST IN THE CONTEXT OF TEMPS OVER THE LAST FEW                  
DAYS AND WEEKS. EXPECT FEW/SCT CU LATER THIS MRNG AND AFTN BUT                  
WITH WEAK LO LVL CAA AND PROGRESSIVELY DRIER AIR OVERSPREADING                  
REGION...SHOULD SEE MSTLY SUNNY SKIES. MODEL SOUNDINGS SUPPORT                  
SOME DECENT MIXING THRU BNDRY LYR THIS AFTN..AND EXPECT NRLY WINDS              
IN THE 10-15 MPH (ESPECIALLY ACRS NRN 1/2 FCST AREA). SFC HI WILL               
FURTHER SETTLE OVER REGION TONIGHT...SETTING STAGE FOR EXCELLENT                
RADIATIONAL COOLING WITH CLR SKIES AND LGT WINDS.                               
TEMPS...AS HAS BEEN CUSTOMARY IN RECENT WEEKS...FAVOR THE WARMER                
END OF GUID TEMPS FOR TODAY. WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE LATER                      
TODAY...EXPECT M/U80S FOR AFTN HIGHS. HAVE PENCILED IN AN 88 FOR                
KCVG TODAY BUT CONSIDERING HOW DRY IT IS AND CONSEQUENTLY HOW                   
EASY A TIME KCVG HAS HAD IN WARMING...NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT              
KCVG GETS TO 90 THIS AFTN. TEMPS SHOULD DROP NICELY TONIGHT WITH                
MOST LOCATIONS DROPPING INTO THE 50S.                                           
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...                                  
ANOTHER SPLENDID DAY ON THE DOCKET FOR SAT AS SFC HI REMAINS                    
ANCHORED ACRS REGION. ALTHOUGH AFOREMENTIONED S/WV WILL SHIFT INTO              
NEW ENGLAND...MID LVL NW FLO WILL DOMINATE AS UPR RIDGE                         
RETROGRADES BACK INTO CNTRL/HI PLAINS AND ROCKIES. SFC LO ACRS                  
NRN PLAINS WILL SHIFT SLOWLY EAST SAT AFTN/NIGHT AS A WARM FRONT                
DVLPS AND EXTENDS SE INTO THE REGION. MID LVL FLO PATTERN WILL                  
DEAMPLIFY SAT NIGHT AS BROAD RIDGE BEGINS TO EXPAND BACK EAST                   
TOWARDS REGION. BOTH 00Z NAM/GFS INDCG DVLPG 850 LLJ OVER UPR                   
MIDWEST BY SAT EVNG WITH AN MCS DVLPG AND PROPAGATING E/SE OVER                 
TOP OF RIDGE INTO THE GRT LKS. WITH BROAD SUBSIDENCE AND                        
PREDOMINANT E/SE FLO ACRS REGION SAT NIGHT...HAVE PULLED POPS FROM              
ALL BUT WEST CNTRL OH. WHILE MAIN FORCING SUPPORTS MCS AFFECTING                
AREAS NORTH OF FCST AREA...CANNOT RULE OUT FAR NRN FCST AREA BEING              
CLIPPED TOWARDS DAYBREAK SUN. AT VERY LEAST...EXPECT CI AND                     
EVENTUALLY AC FROM TSTMS TO OVERSPREAD NRN FCST AREA SAT                        
AFTN/NIGHT.                                                                     
WARM FRONT REMAINS DRAPED ACRS REGION SUN. BEST FORCING AND                     
LOCATION OF WARM FRONT SUPPORT GREATER COVERAGE TO PCPN ACRS NRN                
OH...PROBABLY IN FORM OF REMNANTS OF AFOREMENTIONED MCS. MODEL                  
SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SHOW PLENTY OF SUBSIDENCE THRU BNDRY LYR.                 
PRESENCE OF MID LVL CAP ALL DAY SUN AS WELL WITH MID LVL HGTS                   
WARMING AGAIN FROM SW WITH EXPANSION OF RIDGE. AS A RESULT...AM                 
NOT OVERLY IMPRESSED WITH PCPN CHANCES FOR REGION. HAVE DROPPED                 
BACK TO 30 POPS ACRS NRN FCST AREA...WITH ONLY ISOLD CONVECTION                 
EXPECTED FURTHER SOUTH. DO NOT THINK ITS OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT               
CONDITIONS REMAIN DRY ACRS SRN 1/2 FCST AREA SUN WITH NO                        
APPRECIABLE FORCING...A CAP AND CONSEQUENTLY NO INSTABILITY TO                  
WORK WITH. ANOTHER WEAK WAVE DVLPG SUN NIGHT ALONG FRNTL BNDRY MAY              
BRING A SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCE FOR TSTMS...ESPECIALLY ACRS NRN 1/2              
FCST AREA AS DEEPER MOISTURE BEGINS TO ADVECT BACK INTO REGION ON               
SRLY WINDS. VARIOUS MODELS CONTINUING TO STRUGGLE WITH TIMING OF                
DISTURBANCES SO CONFIDENCE AT GREATER COVERAGE TO PCPN IS                       
RELATIVELY LOW FOR SUN NIGHT ATTM.                                              
TEMPS...NICE GRADIENT OF 850 TEMPS AND BNDRY LYR THICKNESSES                    
BISECTING FCST AREA ON SAT. EXPECT COOLER TEMPS AS A RESULT...WITH              
TEMPS POSSIBLY STAYING IN THE U70S ALONG AND NORTH OF I-70.                     
FURTHER SOUTH L/M80S EXPECTED. AS RIDGE EXPANDS BACK INTO REGION                
SUN AND LO LVL WAA DVLPS...TEMPS WILL CLIMB BACK INTO M/U80S ACRS               
SRN FCST AREA. THIS MAY BE SETTING STAGE FOR ANOTHER STRING OF                  
AFTN HIGHS NEAR OR ABV 90 IN THESE AREAS FOR NEXT WEEK. OVERNIGHT               
LOWS WILL GRADUALLY MODERATE BACK INTO THE 60S MOST LOCATIONS BY                
MON MRNG.                                                                       
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...                                         
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES WILL GRADUALLY                 
FLATTEN OUT THROUGH THE MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK...ALLOWING FOR                 
FLOW TO BECOME MORE ZONAL ACROSS OUR AREA. IN THE WESTERLY                      
FLOW...A SERIES OF WEAK SHORT WAVES WILL PUSH EAST ACROSS THE                   
REGION. TIMING IS DIFFICULT WITH THESE THOUGH SO THINK THE BEST                 
WAY TO HANDLE IT AT THIS POINT IS TO GO WITH A GENERAL 30 POP FOR               
A GOOD PART OF THE EXTENDED. RIGHT NOW IT LOOKS LIKE BEST CHANCE                
FOR ANY PCPN WOULD BE MONDAY AND TUESDAY SO WILL ALLOW FOR CHANCE               
POPS THEN WITH A 20 POP BEYOND.                                                 
LOW LEVEL THERMAL FIELDS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE DURING THE FIRST               
HALF OF THE WEEK. WILL THEREFORE GO WITH A GRADUAL WARM UP WITH                 
HIGH TEMPS INTO THE UPPER 80S AND LOWER 90S BY MIDWEEK.                         
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...                                       
LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOWING MIDDLE                
TO HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE EAST OF THE TERMINALS BY 07Z. MVFR FOG IS                
DEVELOPING OVER WESTERN SECTIONS OF OHIO AS MOISTURE FROM EARLIER               
STORMS OVER INDIANA ADVECTS ACROSS WEST CENTRAL OHIO BEFORE THE                 
DRIER AIR BEHIND COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA DURING THE DAY ON               
FRIDAY. CONDITIONS OVER DAY EXPECTED TO LOWER TO IFR SHORTLY FOLLOWED           
WITHIN ONE OR TWO HOURS BY KILN. MVFR FOG ASSOCIATED WITH THE                   
THUNDERSTORMS THAT MOVED ACROSS SOUTHERN OHIO AND NORTHERN                      
KENTUCKY EARLIER WILL DEVELOP WITHIN THE HOUR KCVG AND KLUK AND                 
FALL RAPIDLY TO IFR CVG AND LIFR KLUK. THIS FOG EXPECTED TO                     
PRODUCE LIFR CEILING KLUK AND BRIEFLY CVG. MVFR FOG EXPECTED CMH                
AND KLCK A FEW HOURS BEFORE SUNRISE. BRIEF MVFR CEILINGS WILL MOVE              
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA FOR THE FIRST TWO HOURS OF THE FORECAST                
PERIOD FOG WILL DISSIPATE MOST AREAS BY 13Z AND BE FOLLOWED BY ONE TO           
TWO HOURS OF MVFR HZ KDAY AND KILN SOUTHWARD. VFR EXPECTED ALL                  
AREAS BY 15Z. AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD ACROSS THE AREA               
FRIDAY DRIER AIR WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA, THUS ONLY EXPECTING               
A FEW CU LATE AFTERNOON.                                                        
OUTLOOK...TSTMS POSSIBLE MONDAY.                                                
&&                                                                              
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
OH...NONE.                                                                      
KY...NONE.                                                                      
IN...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SYNOPSIS...RYAN                                                                 
NEAR TERM...RYAN                                                                
SHORT TERM...RYAN                                                               
LONG TERM...CONIGLIO                                                            
AVIATION...HAYDU                                                                
</pre> oh                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA                                       
438 PM EDT FRI AUG 17 2007                                                      
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
A COLD FRONT WILL EXIT THE EASTERN ZONES LATER THIS EVENING WITH                
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COMING TO AN END. MUCH DRIER                
AND COOLER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION FOR THE WEEKEND AS                     
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES SOUTH AND EAST FROM THE UPPER GREAT               
LAKES. UNSETTLED WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED NEXT WEEK WITH                 
TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITY ON THE RISE.                                          
&&                                                                              
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...                                         
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH #612 REMAIN IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM FOR                  
OUR FAR EASTERN COUNTIES.                                                       
LATEST SFC ANALYSIS PLACES CLD FNT FM THE ECENT MTNS SWD ALONG THE              
BLUE RIDGE MTNS WITH WARM FRONT EXTENDING EWD JUST NORTH OF I-80.               
RATHER MOIST PRE-FRONTAL WARM SECTOR AIRMASS ACROSS THE MIDDLE AND              
LOWER SUSQ VLY REMAINS THE FOCUS FOR ADDITIONAL ISOLD/SCT STRONG                
TO SVR CONVECTION THIS EVE WITH RUC SHOWING 1500-2000 J/KG CAPES                
IN THIS REGION.                                                                 
CONVECTION SHOULD DIE DOWN LATER TONIGHT AS THE FRONT CLEARS THE                
EASTERN ZONES. CU FIELD TO THE WEST WILL CRUMBLE TOWARD SUNSET                  
WITH MUCH COOLER AND DRIER AIR FILTERING INTO THE REGION FROM THE               
NW.                                                                             
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...                         
PW VALUES ARE FOREST TO DROP BELOW NORMAL TONIGHT OVER THE ENTIRE               
STATE SO HAVE GONE AOB THE COOLEST MOS. SREF 2M TEMPS STILL SHOW                
MANY LOCATIONS IN THE 40S ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PA WITH                   
COMFORTABLE 50S IN THE SOUTH/SOUTHEAST.                                         
NOTICEABLE CHANGE IN AIRMASS WILL BE FELT SATURDAY WITH BELOW                   
NORMAL PW/S AND 925/850MB TEMPS...A TASTE OF FALL PERHAPS. MOSTLY               
SUNNY AND LOW HUMIDITY WITH TEMPS MAINLY IN THE 70S.                            
SATURDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE ANOTHER PLEASANT NIGHT. CLOUDS COULD MOVE              
INTO WESTERN AREAS OVERNIGHT AS A SURGE OF MOISTURE HEADS OUR WAY               
AHEAD OF A WARM FRONT. CANNOT RULE OUT A SHOWER IN THE WEST BY                  
SUNDAY MORNING.                                                                 
SUNDAY...THE PW VALUES RETURN TO NORMAL AND RISE ABOVE NORMAL IN THE            
WEST. GEFS SHOWS CHANCE OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY IN THE WEST.            
MONDAY...A WEAK LOW-LEVEL BOUNDARY SHOULD BE OVER THE STATE. WARM               
MOIST AIR ON THE SOUTH SIDE AND COOLER DRIER AIR ON THE NORTH.                  
EXPECT HIGH PROBS FOR PCPN GIVEN BETTER OVERALL PW AVAILABILITY.                
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...                                          
TUES-THURS...ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO SHOW PW VALUES TO BE ABOUT 1SD               
ABOVE NORMAL - SUGGESTING HUMID CONDITIONS AND CHANCES OF SHOWERS.              
BY TUESDAY OUR 850 HPA TEMPS ARE ABOVE NORMAL SUGGESTING HIGHS AOA              
CLIMO. LOOKS LIKE A RELATIVELY WARM HUMID PERIOD AND THUS                       
UNSETTLED WITH PDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.                                
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...                                     
COLD FRONT MOVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE STATE THIS AFTERNOON WILL                
BRING HIGHLY LOCALIZED IFR CIGS AND VSBYS IN STRONG TO SEVERE TSRA              
EAST OF A KIPT TO KSEG AND KMDT LINE THROUGH 21Z.                               
COOLER AND LESS HUMID AIR WILL BRING WIDESPREAD VFR FLYING                      
CONDITIONS TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWEST              
SFC WINDS WILL CAUSE MECHANICAL TURBULENCE ON TAKEOFF AND FINAL                 
APPROACH THROUGH ABOUT 01Z SATURDAY...BEFORE WINDS DECREASE TO                  
LESS THAN 10 MPH.                                                               
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FOR SAT WITH VFR FLYING EXPECTED.                   
SUN-TUE LOOKS UNSETTLED WITH SEVERAL DISTURBANCES TAKING AIM ON                 
THE REGION. AS THE MILDER/MOIST AIR MOVES OVER THE COOL AIRMASS                 
OVER PENN...CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY LOWER AND THICKEN SUNDAY...BUT                
FLYING CONDITIONS SHOULD BE MVFR AT WORST AS CLOUD BASES STAY AOB 3             
KFT AGL.                                                                        
&&                                                                              
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
NONE.                                                                           
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SYNOPSIS...STEINBUGL                                                            
NEAR TERM...STEINBUGL                                                           
SHORT TERM...STEINBUGL/GRUMM                                                    
LONG TERM...STEINBUGL/GRUMM                                                     
AVIATION...LAMBERT/GARTNER                                                      
</pre> pa                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA                                       
248 PM EDT FRI AUG 17 2007                                                      
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
A COLD FRONT WAS MOVING SLOWLY SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION THIS                 
AFTERNOON...AND WAS RESPONSIBLE FOR TRIGGERING A FEW SEVERE                     
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SUSQUEHANNA VALLEY AND POINTS EAST WHERE               
VERY WAR AND HUMID AIR RESIDED. DRIER AND COOLER AIR WILL MOVE                  
OVER THE REGION THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS                  
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. MOISTURE AND NORTHWESTERLY FLOW               
ALOFT SUNDAY INTO MONDAY COULD INCREASE THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS. A                
WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SHOULD DOMINATE THE REGION BY MID-WEEK WITH              
WARM HUMID CONDITIONS.                                                          
&&                                                                              
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...                                         
UPDATE FOR SVR THUNDERSTORM WATCH #612 EFFECTIVE UNTIL 8 PM FOR                 
OUR FAR EASTERN COUNTIES.                                                       
STORMS DEVELOPED RAPIDLY OVER NERN SECTIONS...AND PRODUCED LARGE                
HAIL AND STRONG WINDS IN LYCOMING/LANCASTER COS. SVR THREAT WILL                
CONTINUE INTO THE LATE AFTN/EARLY EVE INVOF OF WARM FRONT EXTNDG                
ACROSS ERN PA. UNIDIRECTIONAL DEEP LYR WIND FIELD OVER TOP THE                  
LLVL BNDRY WILL SUPPORT ROTATING UPDRAFTS WITH SPLITTING LEFT                   
MOVING CELLS ENHANCING HAIL POTENTIAL.                                          
THE COLD FRONT DRAPED ACROSS NRN PENN AT 1430Z WAS BEING                        
TEMPORARILY DELAYED IN ITS SWD MVMT BY A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE              
NEAR KIPT.                                                                      
NAM/RUC SHOW MIXED LAYER CAPE CLIMBING TO OVER 1000 J/KG ACROSS                 
THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON...WHICH IN THE PRESENCE OF                 
WEAK LARGE SCALE FORCING AHEAD OF A SHORT WAVE HEADING SE FROM THE              
LWR GLAKES...SHOULD YIELD A FEW SHRA/TSRA /MAINLY NEAR AND TO THE               
SE OF INTERSTATE 81/.                                                           
COOLER AND LESS HUMID AIR WILL ADVECT SE BEHIND THE FRONT LATE IN               
THE DAY...SWEEPING ANY CONVECTION SOUTH OF THE MASON/DIXON LINE.                
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...                        
HE FRONT SHOULD PUSH TO OUR SOUTH BY MIDDAY. THE COOLER AND DRIER               
AIR SHOULD PRODUCE A PLEASANT DAY WITH SKIES BECOMING MOSTLY SUNNY.             
OUR PW VALUES ARE FOREST TO DROP BELOW NORMAL BY EVENING OVER THE               
ENTIRE STATE. SHOULD BE COMFORTABLE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.                      
VERY DRY AIR OVERNIGHT FRIDAY INTO SATURDAYS SUGGESTS A VERY COOL               
MORNING SATURDAY. SREF 2M TEMPS SHOW MANY LOCATIONS IN THE 40S                  
ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PA. COMFORTABLE 50S IN THE                          
SOUTH/SOUTHEAST.                                                                
SATURDAY SHOULD BE A MOSTLY SUNNY DAY WITH LOW HUMIDITY AND TEMPS               
MAINLY IN THE 70S.                                                              
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...                                   
SATURDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE ANOTHER PLEASANT NIGHT. CLOUDS COULD MOVE              
INTO WESTERN AREAS OVERNIGHT AS A SURGE OF MOISTURE HEADS OUR WAY.              
CANNOT RULE OUT A SHOWER IN THE WEST BY SUNDAY MORNING.                         
SUNDAY...THE PW VALUES RETURN TO NORMAL AND RISE ABOVE NORMAL IN THE            
WEST. GEFS SHOWS CHANCE OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY IN THE WEST.            
MONDAY...A WEAK LOW-LEVEL BOUNDARY SHOULD BE OVER THE STATE. WARM               
MOIST AIR ON THE SOUTH SIDE AND COOLER DRIER AIR ON THE NORTH. HIGH             
PROB HAS MOST OF PA WITH ABOVE NORMAL PW AND CHANCE OF SHOWERS.                 
TUES-THURS...OUR PW VALUES ARE FORECAST TO BE ABOUT 1SD ABOVE NORMAL            
SUGGESTING HUMID CONDITIONS AND CHANCES OF SHOWERS. BY TUESDAY OUR              
850 HPA TEMPS ARE ABOVE NORMAL SUGGESTING IT WILL SHOULD BE SLIGHTLY            
WARMER THAN NORMAL TUE-THURS AS OUR 850 HPA TEMPS REMAIN ABOVE                  
NORMAL. OUR 925 HPA TEMPS SHOULD BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL. LOOKS                
LIKE A RELATIVELY WARM HUMID PERIOD AND THUS THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS              
AND THUNDERSTORMS.                                                              
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...                                     
COLD FRONT MOVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE STATE THIS AFTERNOON WILL                
BRING HIGHLY LOCALIZED IFR CIGS AND VSBYS IN STRONG TO SEVERE TSRA              
EAST OF A KIPT TO KSEG AND KMDT LINE THROUGH 21Z.                               
COOLER AND LESS HUMID AIR WILL BRING WIDESPREAD VFR FLYING                      
CONDITIONS TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWEST              
SFC WINDS WILL CAUSE MECHANICAL TURBULENCE ON TAKEOFF AND FINAL                 
APPROACH THROUGH ABOUT 01Z SATURDAY...BEFORE WINDS DECREASE TO                  
LESS THAN 10 MPH.                                                               
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FOR SAT WITH VFR FLYING EXPECTED.                   
SUN-TUE LOOKS UNSETTLED WITH SEVERAL DISTURBANCES TAKING AIM ON                 
THE REGION. AS THE MILDER/MOIST AIR MOVES OVER THE COOL AIRMASS                 
OVER PENN...CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY LOWER AND THICKEN SUNDAY...BUT                
FYING CONDITIONS SHOULD BE MVFR AT WORST AS CLOUD BASES STAY AOB 3              
KFT AGL.                                                                        
&&                                                                              
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
NONE.                                                                           
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SYNOPSIS...GRUMM/DANGELO/LAMBERT                                                
NEAR TERM...GRUMM/LAMBERT/STEINBUGL                                             
SHORT TERM...GRUMM                                                              
LONG TERM...GRUMM                                                               
AVIATION...LAMBERT/GARTNER                                                      
</pre> pa                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA                                       
147 PM EDT FRI AUG 17 2007                                                      
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
A COLD FRONT LOCATED NEAR INTERSTATE 80 LATE THIS MORNING WILL                  
PUSH SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON...TRIGGERING A FEW                  
SHOWERS OR A THUNDERSTORM ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES OF PENNSYLVANIA.         
DRIER AND COOLER AIR WILL MOVE OVER THE REGION THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT           
S HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. MOISTURE               
AND NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT SUNDAY INTO MONDAY COULD INCREASE THE              
CHANCE OF SHOWERS. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SHOULD DOMINATE THE                 
REGION BY MID-WEEK WITH WARM HUMID CONDITIONS.                                  
&&                                                                              
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...                                         
UPDATE FOR SVR THUNDERSTORM WATCH #612 EFFECTIVE UNTIL 8 PM FOR                 
OUR FAR EASTERN COUNTIES.                                                       
STORMS DEVELOPED RAPIDLY OVER NERN SECTIONS...AND PRODUCED LARGE                
HAIL AND STRONG WINDS IN LYCOMING/LANCASTER COS. SVR THREAT WILL                
CONTINUE INTO THE LATE AFTN/EARLY EVE INVOF OF WARM FRONT EXTNDG                
ACROSS ERN PA. UNIDIRECTIONAL DEEP LYR WIND FIELD OVER TOP THE                  
LLVL BNDRY WILL SUPPORT ROTATING UPDRAFTS WITH SPLITTING LEFT                   
MOVING CELLS ENHANCING HAIL POTENTIAL.                                          
THE COLD FRONT DRAPED ACROSS NRN PENN AT 1430Z WAS BEING                        
TEMPORARILY DELAYED IN ITS SWD MVMT BY A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE              
NEAR KIPT.                                                                      
NAM/RUC SHOW MIXED LAYER CAPE CLIMBING TO OVER 1000 J/KG ACROSS                 
THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON...WHICH IN THE PRESENCE OF                 
WEAK LARGE SCALE FORCING AHEAD OF A SHORT WAVE HEADING SE FROM THE              
LWR GLAKES...SHOULD YIELD A FEW SHRA/TSRA /MAINLY NEAR AND TO THE               
SE OF INTERSTATE 81/.                                                           
COOLER AND LESS HUMID AIR WILL ADVECT SE BEHIND THE FRONT LATE IN               
THE DAY...SWEEPING ANY CONVECTION SOUTH OF THE MASON/DIXON LINE.                
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...                        
HE FRONT SHOULD PUSH TO OUR SOUTH BY MIDDAY. THE COOLER AND DRIER               
AIR SHOULD PRODUCE A PLEASANT DAY WITH SKIES BECOMING MOSTLY SUNNY.             
OUR PW VALUES ARE FOREST TO DROP BELOW NORMAL BY EVENING OVER THE               
ENTIRE STATE. SHOULD BE COMFORTABLE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.                      
VERY DRY AIR OVERNIGHT FRIDAY INTO SATURDAYS SUGGESTS A VERY COOL               
MORNING SATURDAY. SREF 2M TEMPS SHOW MANY LOCATIONS IN THE 40S                  
ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PA. COMFORTABLE 50S IN THE                          
SOUTH/SOUTHEAST.                                                                
SATURDAY SHOULD BE A MOSTLY SUNNY DAY WITH LOW HUMIDITY AND TEMPS               
MAINLY IN THE 70S.                                                              
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...                                   
SATURDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE ANOTHER PLEASANT NIGHT. CLOUDS COULD MOVE              
INTO WESTERN AREAS OVERNIGHT AS A SURGE OF MOISTURE HEADS OUR WAY.              
CANNOT RULE OUT A SHOWER IN THE WEST BY SUNDAY MORNING.                         
SUNDAY...THE PW VALUES RETURN TO NORMAL AND RISE ABOVE NORMAL IN THE            
WEST. GEFS SHOWS CHANCE OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY IN THE WEST.            
MONDAY...A WEAK LOW-LEVEL BOUNDARY SHOULD BE OVER THE STATE. WARM               
MOIST AIR ON THE SOUTH SIDE AND COOLER DRIER AIR ON THE NORTH. HIGH             
PROB HAS MOST OF PA WITH ABOVE NORMAL PW AND CHANCE OF SHOWERS.                 
TUES-THURS...OUR PW VALUES ARE FORECAST TO BE ABOUT 1SD ABOVE NORMAL            
SUGGESTING HUMID CONDITIONS AND CHANCES OF SHOWERS. BY TUESDAY OUR              
850 HPA TEMPS ARE ABOVE NORMAL SUGGESTING IT WILL SHOULD BE SLIGHTLY            
WARMER THAN NORMAL TUE-THURS AS OUR 850 HPA TEMPS REMAIN ABOVE                  
NORMAL. OUR 925 HPA TEMPS SHOULD BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL. LOOKS                
LIKE A RELATIVELY WARM HUMID PERIOD AND THUS THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS              
AND THUNDERSTORMS.                                                              
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...                                     
COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE STATE AT THIS TIME WILL USHER IN                  
MUCH DRIER AIR BY AFTERNOON. AFTER CURRENT HAZE AND FOG DISSIPATES              
LATER THIS MORNING...BY AROUND 14Z TO 15Z...VFR CONDS ARE                       
EXPECTED. RATHER DEEP MIXING WILL PROMOTE GUSTY SFC WNDS GUSTS                  
LATER THIS AFTN.                                                                
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FOR SAT WITH VFR FLYING EXPECTED.                   
SUN- TUE LOOKS UNSETTLED WITH SEVERAL DISTURBANCES TAKING AIM ON                
THE REGION.                                                                     
&&                                                                              
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
NONE.                                                                           
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SYNOPSIS...GRUMM/DANGELO/LAMBERT                                                
NEAR TERM...GRUMM/LAMBERT/STEINBUGL                                             
SHORT TERM...GRUMM                                                              
LONG TERM...GRUMM                                                               
AVIATION...GARTNER                                                              
</pre> pa                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR SOUTHEAST SD/SOUTHWEST MN/NORTHWEST IA             
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD                                         
800 PM CDT FRI AUG 17 2007                                                      
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
TWO AREAS OF CONVECTION ONGOING AT 800 PM CDT. ONE IS MORE OF A                 
COMBINATION OF HEATING OUT AND STRONG LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE. THIS               
WAS FOUND ACROSS THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS WITH MUCH IF NOT ALL OF                
THIS ACTIVITY BEING FORCED IN THE LOWEST 500 METERS. FARTHER EAST               
OVER NW IA AND SE SD...AN INCREASING LLJ IN THE 750-1250M LAYER                 
SEEMS TO BE SPARKING THIS ACTIVITY.                                             
INITIAL THOUGHTS ARE THAT WESTERN HIGH PLAINS ACTIVITY WILL EITHER              
WANE QUITE A BIT WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING OR CONGEAL IN THE AN MCS              
AND TRACK IN TO WESTERN AND CENTRAL NE. CENTRAL AND EASTERN SD                  
SHOULD SEE THE TAIL END OF CURRENT THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY LIGHT UP AS            
LLJ STRENGTHENS TO 40-50 KNOTS. CURRENT PROJECTIONS ARE FOR THE                 
STRONGEST FORCING TO TAKE PLACE BETWEEN 3Z-6Z JUST NORTH OF THE MO              
RIVER PER THE LATEST RUC/NAM.                                                   
SO...WILL BUMP POPS UP 10-20 PERCENT AS IT APPEARS PER THE LATEST               
PROFILERS THAT THE LATEST MODEL OUTPUT ON TARGET WITH LLJ STRENGTH              
AND LOCATION.                                                                   
SEVERE THREAT APPEARS MINIMAL WITH SFC DELTA THETA DIFFERENCE LESS              
THAN 20 AND MAX ELEVATED CAPE VALUES AROUND 900-850MB ONLY 1000-1500            
J/KG. FREEZING LEVEL ALSO AROUND 14-15KFT SO HAIL THREAT LOW.                   
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
MVFR CIGS STILL HANGING ON FM CNTRL NE INTO SWRN CWA THIS AFTN...               
PSBLY EXPANDING NEWD INTO CWA TNGT. SCT TSTMS EXPCD TO DVLP EWD OVR             
CWA LATER THIS EVE AND OVERNIGHT...AND EXPAND IN AREAL COVERAGE ESP             
N OF I90 WITH LCL IFR CIGS AND VSBYS PSBL.                                      
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION...                                                             
COOL DRY SFC RDG MOVG EWD THRU ERN CWA THIS EVE FLWD BY ESELY FLOW              
OF GRADUALLY WARMER AND MORE MOIST AIR. LWR CLDS STILL HANGING ON               
IN FAR SWRN CWA THRU MID AFTN INDICATIVE OF VERY MOIST LOW LVLS.                
WEAKENING TSTMS HEADING FOR NWRN CWA ATTM...AND WILL KEEP SMALL                 
CHCS THRU EARLY EVE. MAIN TSTMS EXPCD TO DVLP FM SWRN SD TO WRN NE              
LATE THIS AFTN THRU EARLY TNGT IN UNSTABLE AIR AND SELY INFLOW AHEAD            
OF GOOD RIDGE RIDER. THIS EXPCD MCS SHOULD DVLP ENEWD OVR MUCH OF               
CWA LATER THIS EVE THRU LATE TNGT...GRADUALLY TRANSITIONING TO MORE             
MID LVL DVLPMT MAINLY N OF I90 LATE TNGT. ANY OF THE STORMS WILL                
HAVE HEAVY RAIN DUE TO GOOD SLY INFLUX OF MOIST ADIABATIC AIR. NAM              
SEEMS TOO WEAK AND GFS A LIT TOO STG WITH VARIOUS QPF BULLSEYES.                
STILL A CHC SVR WRN CWA THIS EVE WITH RESIDUAL INSTABILITY ABV                  
SFC...BUT MAIN THREAT WILL BE THE HEAVY RAIN/PSBLY LOCALIZED                    
FLOODING ISSUES LATE TNGT.                                                      
SETUP FOR TOMORROW ACROSS SOUTHERN MN LOOKS SIMILAR TO HOW THINGS               
PLAYED OUT TODAY ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL SD...WITH TSRA CONTINUING TO              
REDEVELOP IN BAND OF PERSISTENT LOW LEVEL THETA-E ADVECTION WHICH               
MOVES SLOWLY EASTWARD WITH TIME. HAVE EXPANDED HIGH POPS ACROSS THE             
NORTHEAST CWA WITH THIS IN MIND THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON...AND ALSO              
COOLED HIGHS ACROSS ALL BUT THE SOUTHWEST CWA AS EASTERLY OUTFLOW               
FROM THE SLOW MOVING COMPLEX WILL KEEP MUCH OF THE CWA COOLER. NOT              
FULLY CONFIDENT IN EVENTUAL PLACEMENT OF THE SHRA/TSRA TO GO QUITE              
AS COOL AS MAV GUIDANCE...BUT GIVEN TREND OF TEMPERATURES ACROSS                
NORTHERN HALF OF SD TODAY...MAV NUMBERS MAY NOT BE TOO BAD AND                  
MIDNIGHT SHIFT MAY HAVE TO COOL FURTHER.                                        
QUITE A DIFFERENCE IN EVOLUTION BETWEEN NAM AND GFS WITH REGARD TO              
FRONTAL PLACEMENT BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON...AND GIVEN EXPECTATION FOR             
OUTFLOW AS MENTIONED ABOVE...PREFER SOUTHERLY FRONTAL LOCATION NEAR             
MISSOURI RIVER...CLOSER TO GFS BUT NOT QUITE AS FAR SOUTH. STRONG               
TEMPERATURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE BOUNDARY COULD PROMOTE BETTER CHANCE            
OF LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING DEVELOPMENT NEAR THE FRONT...SO HAVE            
SHIFTED SOME HIGHER CHANCE POPS FARTHER SOUTH IN THE CWA FOR THE                
EVENING HOURS...BUT STILL LOOKS LIKE PRECIP SHOULD LIFT NORTHEAST OF            
THE CWA SUNDAY MORNING.                                                         
FORECAST BECOMES QUITE MUDDLED BY LATER SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT...             
WITH MODELS SHOWING LITTLE AGREEMENT AND POTENTIAL FOR OUTFLOW                  
BOUNDARIES TO BE ANYWHERE IN THE CWA FROM PREVIOUS NIGHTS ACTIVITY.             
WITH LOW CONFIDENCE IN SURFACE PATTERN...AND BOTH NAM AND GFS                   
HINTING AT WEAK UPPER WAVE MOVING ACROSS LATE IN THE WEEKEND...HAVE             
EXPANDED SOME LOW CHANCE POPS OVER MUCH OF THE CWA FOR LATE SUNDAY              
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.                                                          
UNSETTLED PATTERN PERSISTS OVER THE NORTHERN CONUS FROM MONDAY                  
THROUGH THE LONGER RANGE...WITH SOMEWHAT AMPLIFIED ZONAL FLOW                   
BETWEEN STRONG UPPER LOW SLIDING EAST THROUGH CANADIAN PRAIRIES...              
AND SEASONAL UPPER RIDGING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE UNITED               
STATES. ENSEMBLE OF MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW QUITE A BIT OF                      
VARIABILITY IN STRENGTH AND TIMING OF WAVES SLIDING THROUGH THE                 
REGION...RESULTING IN LOW CONFIDENCE IN PINPOINTING LOCATION OF                 
BETTER PRECIP CHANCES. HOWEVER IN GENERAL...PATTERN SEEMS MORE                  
FAVORABLE FOR NIGHTTIME ACTIVITY AIDED BY NOCTURNAL LOW LEVEL JET               
THROUGH MIDWEEK...AND HAVE FOCUSED A LITTLE HIGHER POPS IN THE                  
OVERNIGHT PERIODS THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.                                      
BY THURSDAY...GENERAL MODEL CONSENSUS IS TO TRACK THE MAIN UPPER LOW            
INTO THE HUDSON BAY BY THURSDAY...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW ASSOCIATED COOL            
FRONT TO PUSH SOUTH OF THE CWA. HOWEVER SOME QUESTION AS TO HOW FAR             
SOUTH THE FRONT WILL BE ABLE TO GO WITH DOMINANT UPPER RIDGE OVER               
THE SOUTHEAST US. LATE IN THE WEEK...00Z OPERATIONAL GFS QUITE                  
AGGRESSIVE IN DEVELOPING STRONG SURFACE LOW AND TRACKING IT QUICKLY             
NORTHEAST FROM COLORADO THROUGH NORTHWEST IOWA INTO THE FAR WESTERN             
GREAT LAKES BY FRIDAY EVENING. WOULD BE A GOOD WINTERTIME SETUP FOR             
A BAND OF HEAVY SNOW ACROSS THE AREA... HOWEVER SEEMS A BIT OVERDONE            
FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR AND IS QUITE AN OUTLIER COMPARED TO ECMWF AND             
OTHER 00Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS. HAVE LEANED MORE TOWARD PREFERRED               
ENSEMBLE SOLUTION WHICH KEEPS THE FRONT SOUTHEAST OF OUR CWA...WITH             
SMALL PRECIP CHANCES OVER MAINLY THE SOUTHEAST 1/3 OF THE CWA.                  
&&                                                                              
.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
SD...NONE.                                                                      
MN...NONE.                                                                      
IA...NONE.                                                                      
NE...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
 JH/RSR                                                                         
</pre> sd                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX                                          
630 AM CDT SAT AUG 18 2007                                                      
.AVIATION...                                                                    
REMNANTS OF ERIN STILL PRODUCING WIDESPREAD MODERATE RAIN ACROSS                
NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS...AND WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT ABI AIRPORT                   
THROUGH THE MORNING. EXPECTING MAINLY MVFR CONDITIONS FOR MOST                  
AIRPORTS...BUT COULD SEE SOME TEMPORARY IFR CONDITIONS WITH                     
HEAVIER RAIN SHOWERS IN THE KABI AREA. CEILINGS SHOULD IMPOROVE BY              
MID MORNING...BUT STILL CONCERNED ABOUT THE POSSIBILITY FOR                     
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS AS THE REMNANTS OF ERIN LINGER ACROSS WEST              
CENTRAL TEXAS. BEST THUNDER CHANCE WILL LIKELY BE IN THE 22Z TO                 
01Z TIME FRAME...BUT COULD SEE ADDITIONAL RAIN CONTINUING                       
OVERNIGHT AS WELL. DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN LOCATION OF REMNANT UPPER              
LOW...WILL WAIT A LITTLE BEFORE INTRODUCING RAIN OVERNIGHT                      
TONIGHT.                                                                        
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 203 AM CDT SAT AUG 18 2007/                         
SHORT TERM...                                                                   
UPPER LEVEL LOW WAS ABOUT 30 MILES NORTHEAST OF MIDLAND AT                      
2 AM...BUT MAIN WEATHER FOCUS IS A LARGE BAND OF CONVECTIVE                     
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM PANDALE TO SONORA TO SAN ANGELO TO               
ABILENE. STORMS ARE TRAINING ALONG THIS LINE WITH RAINFALL AMOUNTS              
OF 1 TO 2 INCHES PER HOUR. ALONG WITH THE FLASH FLOOD THREAT...MAY              
SEE SOME FLOODING ALONG THE RIVER RISES AND POTENTIAL FLOODING                  
ALONG THE SOUTH CONCHO...ELM CREEK AT BALLINGER...PECAN CREEK NEAR              
SAN ANGELO. HEAVY RAINFALL NEAR AND SOUTH OF ABILENE MAY ALSO                   
CAUSE CREEKS TO RISE AND POSSIBLY FLOOD THIS MORNING.                           
RUC AND WRF MODELS INDICATE BAND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS                   
EXPECTED TO WEAKEN THROUGH MID MORNING MORNING...MOVING IN TOWARD               
THE CENTER OF CIRCULATION. THIS GIVES ANOTHER 6-8 HOURS OF HEAVY                
RAINFALL HOWEVER WHICH WILL CAUSE SIGNIFICANT AND DANGEROUS                     
FLOODING PROBLEMS. AFTER THIS...MOST OF THE SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL                
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING IS CLOSER TO THE UPPER LOW...IN THE BIG              
BIG COUNTRY. AGAIN HOWEVER CONVECTIVE BANDS OF STORMS POSSIBLE                  
AGAIN IN THE AFTERNOON...WHICH HAVE AT TIME BEEN STRONGER THAN                  
THOSE NEAR THE CENTER OF ERIN. WILL CONTINUE FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR              
ALL THE CWA UNTIL 7 PM.                                                         
LONG TERM...                                                                    
MAIN CONFIDENCE IS IN THE FIRST 12 HOURS OF THE FORECAST. WRF                   
MODEL DRIFTS THE CENTER OF ERIN...EASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN                  
BIG COUNTRY TONIGHT TO NEAR WICHITA FALLS ON SUNDAY. ETA (NAM)                  
WANTS TO DRIFT IT NORTH TOWARD LUBBOCK. NOT A LOT OF CONFIDENCE IN              
EITHER ONE OF THE FORECASTS...THOUGH LIKE THE NAM A BIT MORE. IN                
EITHER CASE...RAIN AND FLOOD POTENTIAL WILL BE GREATEST OVER THE                
BIG COUNTRY TONIGHT/SUNDAY.                                                     
BOTH NAM/GFS DEVELOP AN WEAK UPPER LOW NEAR ALONG TEXAS GULF COAST              
MONDAY NIGHT...MOVING IT NORTHWARD INTO WEST CENTRAL TEXAS TUESDAY              
NIGHT/WEDNESDAY. NOT SURE ABOUT HOW REAL THIS IS...BUT ONLY A FEW               
ISOLATED SHOWERS TRY TO DEVELOP ALONG IT ANYWAYS. 00Z GFS MODEL                 
TRY TO BRING REMNANTS OF DEAN MORE TOWARD THE BIG BEND                          
FRIDAY...BUT A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS.                                    
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
ABILENE  81  72  85  72 /  90  80  50  50                                       
SAN ANGELO  84  72  87  73 /  90  70  40  50                                    
JUNCTION  88  72  88  73 /  60  40  30  20                                      
&&                                                                              
.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR BROWN-CALLAHAN-COKE-                 
COLEMAN-CONCHO-CROCKETT-FISHER-HASKELL-IRION-JONES-KIMBLE-MASON-                
MCCULLOCH-MENARD-NOLAN-RUNNELS-SAN SABA-SCHLEICHER-SHACKELFORD-                 
STERLING-SUTTON-TAYLOR-THROCKMORTON-TOM GREEN.                                  
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
08                                                                              
</pre> tx                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX                                          
203 AM CDT SAT AUG 18 2007                                                      
.SHORT TERM...                                                                  
UPPER LEVEL LOW WAS ABOUT 30 MILES NORTHEAST OF MIDLAND AT                      
2 AM...BUT MAIN WEATHER FOCUS IS A LARGE BAND OF CONVECTIVE                     
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM PANDALE TO SONORA TO SAN ANGELO TO               
ABILENE. STORMS ARE TRAINING ALONG THIS LINE WITH RAINFALL AMOUNTS              
OF 1 TO 2 INCHES PER HOUR. ALONG WITH THE FLASH FLOOD THREAT...MAY              
SEE SOME FLOODING ALONG THE RIVER RISES AND POTENTIAL FLOODING                  
ALONG THE SOUTH CONCHO...ELM CREEK AT BALLINGER...PECAN CREEK NEAR              
SAN ANGELO. HEAVY RAINFALL NEAR AND SOUTH OF ABILENE MAY ALSO                   
CAUSE CREEKS TO RISE AND POSSIBLY FLOOD THIS MORNING.                           
RUC AND WRF MODELS INDICATE BAND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS                   
EXPECTED TO WEAKEN THROUGH MID MORNING MORNING...MOVING IN TOWARD               
THE CENTER OF CIRCULATION. THIS GIVES ANOTHER 6-8 HOURS OF HEAVY                
RAINFALL HOWEVER WHICH WILL CAUSE SIGNIFICANT AND DANGEROUS                     
FLOODING PROBLEMS. AFTER THIS...MOST OF THE SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL                
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING IS CLOSER TO THE UPPER LOW...IN THE BIG              
BIG COUNTRY. AGAIN HOWEVER CONVECTIVE BANDS OF STORMS POSSIBLE                  
AGAIN IN THE AFTERNOON...WHICH HAVE AT TIME BEEN STRONGER THAN                  
THOSE NEAR THE CENTER OF ERIN. WILL CONTINUE FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR              
ALL THE CWA UNTIL 7 PM.                                                         
.LONG TERM...                                                                   
MAIN CONFIDENCE IS IN THE FIRST 12 HOURS OF THE FORECAST. WRF                   
MODEL DRIFTS THE CENTER OF ERIN...EASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN                  
BIG COUNTRY TONIGHT TO NEAR WICHITA FALLS ON SUNDAY. ETA (NAM)                  
WANTS TO DRIFT IT NORTH TOWARD LUBBOCK. NOT A LOT OF CONFIDENCE IN              
EITHER ONE OF THE FORECASTS...THOUGH LIKE THE NAM A BIT MORE. IN                
EITHER CASE...RAIN AND FLOOD POTENTIAL WILL BE GREATEST OVER THE                
BIG COUNTRY TONIGHT/SUNDAY.                                                     
BOTH NAM/GFS DEVELOP AN WEAK UPPER LOW NEAR ALONG TEXAS GULF COAST              
MONDAY NIGHT...MOVING IT NORTHWARD INTO WEST CENTRAL TEXAS TUESDAY              
NIGHT/WEDNESDAY. NOT SURE ABOUT HOW REAL THIS IS...BUT ONLY A FEW               
ISOLATED SHOWERS TRY TO DEVELOP ALONG IT ANYWAYS. 00Z GFS MODEL                 
TRY TO BRING REMNANTS OF DEAN MORE TOWARD THE BIG BEND                          
FRIDAY...BUT A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS.                                    
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
ABILENE  81  72  85  72 /  90  80  50  50                                       
SAN ANGELO  84  72  87  73 /  90  70  40  50                                    
JUNCTION  88  72  88  73 /  60  40  30  20                                      
&&                                                                              
.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR BROWN-CALLAHAN-COKE-                 
COLEMAN-CONCHO-CROCKETT-FISHER-HASKELL-IRION-JONES-KIMBLE-MASON-                
MCCULLOCH-MENARD-NOLAN-RUNNELS-SAN SABA-SCHLEICHER-SHACKELFORD-                 
STERLING-SUTTON-TAYLOR-THROCKMORTON-TOM GREEN.                                  
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
99/04                                                                           
</pre> tx                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI                                           
905 PM CDT SAT AUG 18 2007                                                      
.UPDATE...                                                                      
THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO GENERATE NORTH OF THE IOWA WARM FRONT                 
FROM SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN ACROSS SOUTHERN MINNESOTA TO NORTH OF                  
SIOUX FALLS SOUTH DAKOTA. THIS AREA OF RAIN CONTINUES TO MOVE                   
EAST/SOUTHEAST AND IS EXPECTED TO TRAIN OVER THE SAME AREAS                     
OVERNIGHT. WITH THE ACTIVITY OVER SOUTHERN MINNESOTA A LITTLE                   
FARTHER NORTH THAN EARLIER ANTICIPATED WILL EXPAND THE WATCH A                  
LITTLE TO THE NORTH AS WELL.                                                    
04                                                                              
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 245 PM CDT SAT AUG 18 2007/                         
SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY                                            
FORECAST FOCUS IS ON THE EXPECTED RAIN...ALONG WITH HEAVY RAIN AND              
THE POSSIBILITY OF FLOODING.                                                    
THE 12Z GFS AND NAM ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE PLACEMENT             
OF THE WARM FRONT OVER THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS...WHICH WILL BE THE                 
FOCUS FOR WHERE THE PCPN/HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL WILL LIE. THIS                    
BOUNDARY IS SLATED TO MOVE NORTH TODAY...LAYING UP ROUGHLY FROM NEAR            
THE IA/MN BORDER INTO NORTHERN ILL TONIGHT...AND THEN SLOWLY SINKS              
BACK INTO CENTRAL IA/CENTRAL ILL BY MONDAY MORNING. APPRECIABLE                 
FRONTOGENETIC RESPONSE THROUGH THE ATMOSPHERE IS INDICATED NORTH OF             
THE SFC FRONT...WITH THE CURRENT PCPN LINING UP VERY WELL WITH THE              
800:700 MB LAYER. THIS FRONTOGENETIC FORCING DOES SHIFT SOME                    
NORTH/NORTHEAST TONIGHT...MORE FROM EASTCENTRAL MN INTO CENTRAL WI.             
MEANWHILE...THE STRONGEST ISENTROPIC ADVECTION IN THE 850:700 MB                
LAYER IS CENTERED MORE ACROSS CENTRAL WI TONIGHT. THE NOSE OF THE               
850 MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT ALSO SHIFTS NORTHEAST TONIGHT...MORE                  
FOCUSED ACROSS NORTHCENTRAL WI..INTO THIS HIGHER THETA-E AIR AND                
FRONTOGENETIC LIFT. THE RUC/NAM/LOCAL WRF PLACE THEIR MAIN QPF                  
WITHIN THIS BETTER FORCING...WHILE THE GFS IS A BIT MORE                        
SOUTH...MOSTLY ACROSS SOUTHEAST MN/SOUTHERN WI. THIS WOULD SEEM TO              
BE AT ODDS WITH WHERE IT PLACES ITS BEST FORCING. BELIEVE THE MAIN              
BAND OF RAIN/EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL SHIFT A BIT NORTH TONIGHT.             
SOUTH OF THERE THOUGH...STILL EXPECT SHOWERS/STORMS TO                          
DEVELOP...ALTHOUGH MORE CONVECTIVE IN NATURE THAN TO THE NORTH. GOOD            
850:700 MB QG CONVERGENCE...THE VICINITY OF THE SFC FRONT...STRONG              
LOW LEVEL THERMAL GRADIENT...AND ELEVATED CAPES/S AROUND 750 J/KG               
JUST NORTH OF THE SFC FRONT SHOULD HELP IN THAT DEVELOPMENT. SFC                
PW/S ARE STILL IN EXCESS OF 2 INCHES...WHICH KEEPS HEAVY RAIN IN THE            
PICTURE. HOWEVER...LOCATIONS TO THE NORTH HAVE BEEN MUCH DRIER AND              
CAN TAKE A CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF RAIN...GENERALLY 3 OR MORE INCHES             
IN 1 TO 3 HOURS. SOUTH THOUGH...VALUES GENERALLY RANGE FROM 1-2                 
INCHES. ANY CONVECTIVE DOWNPOURS COULD PRODUCE 1 TO 2 INCHES PER                
HOUR RAIN RATES. SO...WILL EXTEND THE FLASH WATCH THROUGH 4 AM.                 
WILL NOT ADD OR REMOVE ANY COUNTIES FROM THE WATCH FOR NOW.                     
ON SUNDAY...A WEAK RIPPLE ALONG THE 500 MB FLOW WILL TRACK EAST                 
FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS TO ACROSS IA/ILL. THIS WILL WORK WITH THE               
PERSISTENT WARM FRONT AND FRONTOGENETIC FORCING TO CONTINUE PRODUCE             
RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS...MOSTLY ALONG AND NORTH OF THE SFC FRONT.               
THIS WILL PERSIST SUNDAY NIGHT. AGAIN...SFC PW/S AROUND 2 INCHES                
WILL CONTINUE THE THREAT FOR HEAVY RAIN...AND THE THE CURRENT WATCH             
COULD BE EXTENDED...OR PERHAPS A DIFFERENT WATCH WILL BE NEEDED FOR             
LATER IN THE DAY SUNDAY...AS A RESULT.                                          
FOR MONDAY...THE SUN NIGHT PCPN SHOULD SHIFT EAST...BUT THAT WARM               
FRONT WILL STILL BE TO THE SOUTH...WITH NOW A COLD FRONT APPROACHING            
THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THE                
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/STORM DEVELOPMENT AROUND THE WARM FRONT WILL                 
CONTINUE. MEANWHILE...THE COLD FRONT LOOKS TO MOVE IN ON                        
TUESDAY...WITH YET MORE SHOWERS AND STORMS PROBABLE.                            
OVERALL...THE WET AND UNSETTLED PATTERN WILL CONTINUE INTO MON/TUES.            
THE MODELS ARE TRENDING TOWARD SIMILAR SOLUTIONS...BUT STILL HAVE               
DIFFERENCES IN THEIR QPF. HAVE OPTED TO GO WITH WHERE THE BEST                  
FORCING LIES RATHER THAN WHERE THE MODELS PAINT THEIR QPF. WHILE THE            
POSITIONING OF THE WARM FRONT IS THE FOCUS FOR THE RAIN...VARIOUS               
OTHER WEATHER FEATURES //SHORTWAVES...850 MB JET/MOISTURE                       
TRANSPORT...ETC// WILL PLAY THEIR ROLES...AND MUCK UP THE OVERALL               
PICTURE A BIT. THE HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL REMAINS HIGH...AND THE FLASH            
FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES AS A RESULT.                                              
LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY                                      
THE 500 MB FLOW LOOKS TO STAY ZONAL FOR MOST OF NEXT WEEK...AND                 
FAIRLY ACTIVE...AS THE MODELS ZIP VARIOUS PERTURBATIONS THROUGH THE             
MEAN FLOW. THIS WILL RESULT IN CONTINUED PCPN CHANCES FOR MOST OF               
NEXT WEEK...ALTHOUGH THE TIMING ON WHEN THE BEST CHANCES WILL BE IS             
DIFFICULT IN A PATTERN SUCH AS THIS. WILL CONTINUE TO PAINT THE POPS            
WITH BROAD STROKES...AVOIDING TOO MUCH REFINEMENT UNTIL CONFIDENCE              
IN THE TIMING/STRENGTH/PLACEMENT OF THE VARIOUS SHORTWAVES AND/OR               
SFC BOUNDARIES INCREASES.                                                       
AVIATION...                                                                     
FORECAST CONFIDENCE WAS FAIRLY HIGH THAT PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND                 
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE AREA THROUGH TONIGHT                
INTO SUNDAY. THIS WAS BASED ON MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW IMPINGING ON                
SURFACE AND 850MB FRONT...ALONG WITH PARADE OF UPPER LEVEL                      
DISTURBANCES INTERACTING WITH THE FRONT. AS A RESULT...IFR AND/OR               
MVFR ARE EXPECTED TO BE THE PREDOMINANT CONDITIONS AT BOTH LSE AND              
RST TAF SITES.                                                                  
THOMPSON                                                                        
&&                                                                              
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
WI...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 4 AM CDT SUNDAY FOR WIZ032-WIZ033-WIZ041-          
     WIZ053-WIZ054-WIZ055-WIZ061.                                               
MN...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 4 AM CDT SUNDAY FOR MNZ079-MNZ086-MNZ087-          
     MNZ088-MNZ094-MNZ095-MNZ096.                                               
IA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 4 AM CDT SUNDAY FOR IAZ008-IAZ009-IAZ010-          
     IAZ011-IAZ018-IAZ019-IAZ029-IAZ030.                                        
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</pre> wi                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI                                  
846 PM CDT SAT AUG 18 2007                                                      
.UPDATE...HAVE EXPANDED FLASH FLOOD WATCH TO INCLUDE COLUMBIA AND               
DODGE COUNTIES. WILL CONTINUE FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR COUNTIES THAT               
WAS ISSUED EARLIER.                                                             
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM...EXPANDED WATCH AS 1 INCH RAINFALL TOTALS HAVE                     
ALREADY OCCURRED OVER COLUMBIA AND DODGE COUNTIES. IN ADDITION A                
SLOW EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF COLD CLOUD TOPS SHOWN IN IR                        
SATELLITE ASSOCIATED WITH BAND OF CONVECTION EXPECTED TO BRING                  
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL LATER TONIGHT TO THAT AREA AS WELL AS REMAINDER             
OF FLASH FLOOD WATCH AREA. TREND OF BACK BUILDING OF CONVECTION                 
NOTED IN RADAR AND SATELLITE LOOPS LAST FEW HOURS WILL INSURE                   
WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. CURRENT UPPER AIR             
ANALYSIS SHOWS 30+ LOW LEVEL JET FEEDING FROM IOWA INTO SOUTHERN                
WISCONSIN WHERE TIGHT BAROCLINIC ZONE REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY.                
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 335 PM CDT SAT AUG 18 2007/                         
DISCUSSION...FCST FOCUS IS ON HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL TONIGHT INTO                 
SUNDAY AND WET AND UNSETTLED WEATHER INTO MID WEEK.                             
WARM AIR ADVECTION SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS OVERSPREADING                
STATE AS EXPECTED ON NOSE OF 30-35KT 850 MB WINDS RUNNING OVER TIGHT            
BAROCLINIC ZONE...850 TEMPS +8C AT GRB WHILE +16C AT DVN ON 12Z                 
SOUNDINGS...AHEAD OF SHRT WAVE TROUGH LOCATED OVER S CNTRL MN/N                 
CNTRL IA AT 19Z. HEAVIEST PCPN HAS TRACKED WELL WITH STRONGEST                  
850-700MB FRONTOGENETIC FORCING. NAM CONTINUES TO BE AN OUTLIER WITH            
PUSH OF SFC AND 850 MB WARM FRONTS FARTHER NORTH THAN CONSENSUS...SO            
WILL FOLLOW THE GFS FOR DETAILS.                                                
RGNL 88-D REFLECTIVITY RETURNS SHOW DISCRETE CONVECTIVE CELLS                   
FORMING CLOSER TO SFC WRM FRONT IN CNTRL IL AND ELEVATED CELLS                  
..PER RUC SNDG FOR DBQ...FROM SW WI BACK TWDS S CNTRL MN IN RGN OF              
BETTER ISENTROPIC LIFT NOTED ON 305K SURFACE...AND STRONG 750-800 MB            
FRONTOGENETIC FORCING. THIS POCKET OF BETTER ISENTROPIC LIFT AND                
FORCING CROSSES SRN WI BETWEEN 06Z AND 12Z...WITH RGN UNDER THE                 
RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF 100-115KT 300 MB JET AIDING LARGE SCALE                
LIFT. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES BETWEEN 2 INCHES AND 2.20                       
INCHES...AND PRECIP EFFICIENCIES OF 1.70 TO 2.0 ASSURING MAXIMUM                
POTENTIAL ACCUMULATIONS.                                                        
STORM TOTAL QPF STILL TARGETS THE MORE SUSCEPTIBLE SRN COUNTIES OF              
THE CWA SO WILL LEAVE THE GOING FLASH FLOOD WATCH AS IS. IF AXIS OF             
MAX QPF DOES SHIFT A BIT FARTHER NORTH...NRN COUNTIES HAVE BEEN MUCH            
DRIER AND 1-3-6 HRLY FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE MOSAICS INDICATE THE NRN 2            
TIERS OF COUNTIES WOULD NEED FAR MORE RAINFALL THAN IS FCST...2.75              
TO 3.5 INCHES IN ONE HOUR...TO WARRANT ADDING TO THE WATCH. STILL               
ALL OF CWA WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF                     
URBAN/LOWLAND LOCALIZED FLOODING IN ADDITION TO FLASH FLOOD                     
POTENTIAL IN THE SOUTH.                                                         
UPR JET MAX LINGERS OVER REGION THRU MONDAY...WITH 850 BAROCLINIC               
ZONE DRAPED OVER CWA WITH PERSISTENT CROSS-ISOTHERM FLOW AND                    
FRONTOGENETIC FORCING...SO WILL LEAVE LIKELY WORDING IN FOR SUNDAY.             
SFC BNDRY REMAINS ACROSS NRN IL/SRN WI WITH MODELS INDICATING A                 
SERIES OF COMPLEXES MOVING ALONG BNDRY.                                         
GENERALLY FOLLOWED MAV GUIDANCE FOR TEMPS...THOUGH TEMPERED TUESDAY             
MAXES A BIT.                                                                    
EXTENDED...SOME VARIABILITY WITH TIMING AND STRENGTH OF SHRT WAVES              
IN ZONAL FLOW OVER THE NRN U.S. AND SFC BOUNDARY THAT WILL OSSCILATE            
OVER THE WRN GREAT LAKES THRU THE PERIOD. APPEARS ENOUGH AGREEMENT              
AMONG MODELS WITH COLD FRONT SAGGING THRU WI WED AND STALLING NEAR              
THE NRN IL/WI BORDER WITH WEAK WAVES RUNNING THE BOUNDARY THRU FRI.             
GFS MAY BE HAVING SOME CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK ISSUES WITH COMPACT                  
VIGOROUS VORTICITY MAXIMAS AND ASSOCIATED QPF AMOUNTS...BUT PATTERN             
SUGGESTS CWA IS IN REGION DOWNSTREAM FROM NOCTURNAL MCS/S DEVELOPING            
JUST TO OUR WEST ON PERIPHERY OF 500 MB HIGH OVER THE SE U.S. AND               
MOVING EWD ALONG BOUNDARY. WITH POTENTIAL FOR THESE COMPLEXES AND               
EVEN WEAK MCV/S CROSSING CWA WILL HAVE TO KEEP POPS IN FCST EACH                
DAY...THO NO ALL DAY RAIN OUTS. GENERALLY ACCEPTED HPC/MEXMOS FOR               
TEMPERATURES THOUGH BACKED OFF ON WED HI/S DUE TO EXPECTED PCPN AND             
CLOUDS ALONG FRONT WHICH CONSENSUS FCSTS HAVE MOVING THRU CWA BY                
LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON.                                                   
AVIATION...XPCT WDSPRD MVFR CONDS IN -RA/-TSRA/BR THRU 00Z MON.                 
AREAS OF IFR CIGS/VSBYS EXPCTD IN PDS OF HVY RA/TSRA INTO 18Z MON.              
STNRY FNT ACRS IA AND NRN IL THRU PD WITH MSTR LIFTING OVR FNT INTO             
SRN WI.                                                                         
MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                              
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR WIZ056-062-063-067>069.              
FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR                  
WIZ064>066-070>072.                                                             
$$                                                                              
&&                                                                              
.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 6 AM CDT SUNDAY FOR WIZ056-057-062-063-                 
067>069.                                                                        
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR WIZ058-064>066-                    
070>072.                                                                        
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
TZ                                                                              
</pre> wi                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI                                  
335 PM CDT SAT AUG 18 2007                                                      
.DISCUSSION...FCST FOCUS IS ON HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL TONIGHT INTO                
SUNDAY AND WET AND UNSETTLED WEATHER INTO MID WEEK.                             
WARM AIR ADVECTION SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS OVERSPREADING                
STATE AS EXPECTED ON NOSE OF 30-35KT 850 MB WINDS RUNNING OVER TIGHT            
BAROCLINIC ZONE...850 TEMPS +8C AT GRB WHILE +16C AT DVN ON 12Z                 
SOUNDINGS...AHEAD OF SHRT WAVE TROUGH LOCATED OVER S CNTRL MN/N                 
CNTRL IA AT 19Z. HEAVIEST PCPN HAS TRACKED WELL WITH STRONGEST                  
850-700MB FRONTOGENETIC FORCING. NAM CONTINUES TO BE AN OUTLIER WITH            
PUSH OF SFC AND 850 MB WARM FRONTS FARTHER NORTH THAN CONSENSUS...SO            
WILL FOLLOW THE GFS FOR DETAILS.                                                
RGNL 88-D REFLECTIVITY RETURNS SHOW DISCRETE CONVECTIVE CELLS                   
FORMING CLOSER TO SFC WRM FRONT IN CNTRL IL AND ELEVATED CELLS                  
...PER RUC SNDG FOR DBQ...FROM SW WI BACK TWDS S CNTRL MN IN RGN OF             
BETTER ISENTROPIC LIFT NOTED ON 305K SURFACE...AND STRONG 750-800 MB            
FRONTOGENETIC FORCING. THIS POCKET OF BETTER ISENTROPIC LIFT AND                
FORCING CROSSES SRN WI BETWEEN 06Z AND 12Z...WITH RGN UNDER THE                 
RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF 100-115KT 300 MB JET AIDING LARGE SCALE                
LIFT. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES BETWEEN 2 INCHES AND 2.20                       
INCHES...AND PRECIP EFFICIENCIES OF 1.70 TO 2.0 ASSURING MAXIMUM                
POTENTIAL ACCUMULATIONS.                                                        
STORM TOTAL QPF STILL TARGETS THE MORE SUSCEPTIBLE SRN COUNTIES OF              
THE CWA SO WILL LEAVE THE GOING FLASH FLOOD WATCH AS IS. IF AXIS OF             
MAX QPF DOES SHIFT A BIT FARTHER NORTH...NRN COUNTIES HAVE BEEN MUCH            
DRIER AND 1-3-6 HRLY FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE MOSAICS INDICATE THE NRN 2            
TIERS OF COUNTIES WOULD NEED FAR MORE RAINFALL THAN IS FCST...2.75              
TO 3.5 INCHES IN ONE HOUR...TO WARRANT ADDING TO THE WATCH. STILL               
ALL OF CWA WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF                     
URBAN/LOWLAND LOCALIZED FLOODING IN ADDITION TO FLASH FLOOD                     
POTENTIAL IN THE SOUTH.                                                         
UPR JET MAX LINGERS OVER REGION THRU MONDAY...WITH 850 BAROCLINIC               
ZONE DRAPED OVER CWA WITH PERSISTENT CROSS-ISOTHERM FLOW AND                    
FRONTOGENETIC FORCING...SO WILL LEAVE LIKELY WORDING IN FOR SUNDAY.             
SFC BNDRY REMAINS ACROSS NRN IL/SRN WI WITH MODELS INDICATING A                 
SERIES OF COMPLEXES MOVING ALONG BNDRY.                                         
GENERALLY FOLLOWED MAV GUIDANCE FOR TEMPS...THOUGH TEMPERED TUESDAY             
MAXES A BIT.                                                                    
.EXTENDED...SOME VARIABILITY WITH TIMING AND STRENGTH OF SHRT WAVES             
IN ZONAL FLOW OVER THE NRN U.S. AND SFC BOUNDARY THAT WILL OSSCILATE            
OVER THE WRN GREAT LAKES THRU THE PERIOD. APPEARS ENOUGH AGREEMENT              
AMONG MODELS WITH COLD FRONT SAGGING THRU WI WED AND STALLING NEAR              
THE NRN IL/WI BORDER WITH WEAK WAVES RUNNING THE BOUNDARY THRU FRI.             
GFS MAY BE HAVING SOME CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK ISSUES WITH COMPACT                  
VIGOROUS VORTICITY MAXIMAS AND ASSOCIATED QPF AMOUNTS...BUT PATTERN             
SUGGESTS CWA IS IN REGION DOWNSTREAM FROM NOCTURNAL MCS/S DEVELOPING            
JUST TO OUR WEST ON PERIPHERY OF 500 MB HIGH OVER THE SE U.S. AND               
MOVING EWD ALONG BOUNDARY. WITH POTENTIAL FOR THESE COMPLEXES AND               
EVEN WEAK MCV/S CROSSING CWA WILL HAVE TO KEEP POPS IN FCST EACH                
DAY...THO NO ALL DAY RAIN OUTS. GENERALLY ACCEPTED HPC/MEXMOS FOR               
TEMPERATURES THOUGH BACKED OFF ON WED HI/S DUE TO EXPECTED PCPN AND             
CLOUDS ALONG FRONT WHICH CONSENSUS FCSTS HAVE MOVING THRU CWA BY                
LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON.                                                   
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...XPCT WDSPRD MVFR CONDS IN -RA/-TSRA/BR THRU 00Z MON.                
AREAS OF IFR CIGS/VSBYS EXPCTD IN PDS OF HVY RA/TSRA INTO 18Z MON.              
STNRY FNT ACRS IA AND NRN IL THRU PD WITH MSTR LIFTING OVR FNT INTO             
SRN WI.                                                                         
&&                                                                              
.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR WIZ056-062-063-067>069.              
FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR                  
WIZ064>066-070>072.                                                             
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
09/09/35                                                                        
</pre> wi                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI                                           
245 PM CDT SAT AUG 18 2007                                                      
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY                                           
FORECAST FOCUS IS ON THE EXPECTED RAIN...ALONG WITH HEAVY RAIN AND              
THE POSSIBILITY OF FLOODING.                                                    
THE 12Z GFS AND NAM ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE PLACEMENT             
OF THE WARM FRONT OVER THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS...WHICH WILL BE THE                 
FOCUS FOR WHERE THE PCPN/HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL WILL LIE. THIS                    
BOUNDARY IS SLATED TO MOVE NORTH TODAY...LAYING UP ROUGHLY FROM NEAR            
THE IA/MN BORDER INTO NORTHERN ILL TONIGHT...AND THEN SLOWLY SINKS              
BACK INTO CENTRAL IA/CENTRAL ILL BY MONDAY MORNING. APPRECIABLE                 
FRONTOGENETIC RESPONSE THROUGH THE ATMOSPHERE IS INDICATED NORTH OF             
THE SFC FRONT...WITH THE CURRENT PCPN LINING UP VERY WELL WITH THE              
800:700 MB LAYER. THIS FRONTOGENETIC FORCING DOES SHIFT SOME                    
NORTH/NORTHEAST TONIGHT...MORE FROM EASTCENTRAL MN INTO CENTRAL WI.             
MEANWHILE...THE STRONGEST ISENTROPIC ADVECTION IN THE 850:700 MB                
LAYER IS CENTERED MORE ACROSS CENTRAL WI TONIGHT. THE NOSE OF THE               
850 MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT ALSO SHIFTS NORTHEAST TONIGHT...MORE                  
FOCUSED ACROSS NORTHCENTRAL WI..INTO THIS HIGHER THETA-E AIR AND                
FRONTOGENETIC LIFT. THE RUC/NAM/LOCAL WRF PLACE THEIR MAIN QPF                  
WITHIN THIS BETTER FORCING...WHILE THE GFS IS A BIT MORE                        
SOUTH...MOSTLY ACROSS SOUTHEAST MN/SOUTHERN WI. THIS WOULD SEEM TO              
BE AT ODDS WITH WHERE IT PLACES ITS BEST FORCING. BELIEVE THE MAIN              
BAND OF RAIN/EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL SHIFT A BIT NORTH TONIGHT.             
SOUTH OF THERE THOUGH...STILL EXPECT SHOWERS/STORMS TO                          
DEVELOP...ALTHOUGH MORE CONVECTIVE IN NATURE THAN TO THE NORTH. GOOD            
850:700 MB QG CONVERGENCE...THE VICINITY OF THE SFC FRONT...STRONG              
LOW LEVEL THERMAL GRADIENT...AND ELEVATED CAPES/S AROUND 750 J/KG               
JUST NORTH OF THE SFC FRONT SHOULD HELP IN THAT DEVELOPMENT. SFC                
PW/S ARE STILL IN EXCESS OF 2 INCHES...WHICH KEEPS HEAVY RAIN IN THE            
PICTURE. HOWEVER...LOCATIONS TO THE NORTH HAVE BEEN MUCH DRIER AND              
CAN TAKE A CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF RAIN...GENERALLY 3 OR MORE INCHES             
IN 1 TO 3 HOURS. SOUTH THOUGH...VALUES GENERALLY RANGE FROM 1-2                 
INCHES. ANY CONVECTIVE DOWNPOURS COULD PRODUCE 1 TO 2 INCHES PER                
HOUR RAIN RATES. SO...WILL EXTEND THE FLASH WATCH THROUGH 4 AM.                 
WILL NOT ADD OR REMOVE ANY COUNTIES FROM THE WATCH FOR NOW.                     
ON SUNDAY...A WEAK RIPPLE ALONG THE 500 MB FLOW WILL TRACK EAST                 
FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS TO ACROSS IA/ILL. THIS WILL WORK WITH THE               
PERSISTENT WARM FRONT AND FRONTOGENETIC FORCING TO CONTINUE PRODUCE             
RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS...MOSTLY ALONG AND NORTH OF THE SFC FRONT.               
THIS WILL PERSIST SUNDAY NIGHT. AGAIN...SFC PW/S AROUND 2 INCHES                
WILL CONTINUE THE THREAT FOR HEAVY RAIN...AND THE THE CURRENT WATCH             
COULD BE EXTENDED...OR PERHAPS A DIFFERENT WATCH WILL BE NEEDED FOR             
LATER IN THE DAY SUNDAY...AS A RESULT.                                          
FOR MONDAY...THE SUN NIGHT PCPN SHOULD SHIFT EAST...BUT THAT WARM               
FRONT WILL STILL BE TO THE SOUTH...WITH NOW A COLD FRONT APPROACHING            
THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THE                
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/STORM DEVELOPMENT AROUND THE WARM FRONT WILL                 
CONTINUE. MEANWHILE...THE COLD FRONT LOOKS TO MOVE IN ON                        
TUESDAY...WITH YET MORE SHOWERS AND STORMS PROBABLE.                            
OVERALL...THE WET AND UNSETTLED PATTERN WILL CONTINUE INTO MON/TUES.            
THE MODELS ARE TRENDING TOWARD SIMILAR SOLUTIONS...BUT STILL HAVE               
DIFFERENCES IN THEIR QPF. HAVE OPTED TO GO WITH WHERE THE BEST                  
FORCING LIES RATHER THAN WHERE THE MODELS PAINT THEIR QPF. WHILE THE            
POSITIONING OF THE WARM FRONT IS THE FOCUS FOR THE RAIN...VARIOUS               
OTHER WEATHER FEATURES //SHORTWAVES...850 MB JET/MOISTURE                       
TRANSPORT...ETC// WILL PLAY THEIR ROLES...AND MUCK UP THE OVERALL               
PICTURE A BIT. THE HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL REMAINS HIGH...AND THE FLASH            
FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES AS A RESULT.                                              
.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY                                     
THE 500 MB FLOW LOOKS TO STAY ZONAL FOR MOST OF NEXT WEEK...AND                 
FAIRLY ACTIVE...AS THE MODELS ZIP VARIOUS PERTURBATIONS THROUGH THE             
MEAN FLOW. THIS WILL RESULT IN CONTINUED PCPN CHANCES FOR MOST OF               
NEXT WEEK...ALTHOUGH THE TIMING ON WHEN THE BEST CHANCES WILL BE IS             
DIFFICULT IN A PATTERN SUCH AS THIS. WILL CONTINUE TO PAINT THE POPS            
WITH BROAD STROKES...AVOIDING TOO MUCH REFINEMENT UNTIL CONFIDENCE              
IN THE TIMING/STRENGTH/PLACEMENT OF THE VARIOUS SHORTWAVES AND/OR               
SFC BOUNDARIES INCREASES.                                                       
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
FORECAST CONFIDENCE WAS FAIRLY HIGH THAT PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND                 
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE AREA THROUGH TONIGHT                
INTO SUNDAY. THIS WAS BASED ON MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW IMPINGING ON                
SURFACE AND 850MB FRONT...ALONG WITH PARADE OF UPPER LEVEL                      
DISTURBANCES INTERACTING WITH THE FRONT. AS A RESULT...IFR AND/OR               
MVFR ARE EXPECTED TO BE THE PREDOMINANT CONDITIONS AT BOTH LSE AND              
RST TAF SITES.                                                                  
THOMPSON                                                                        
&&                                                                              
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
WI...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR WIZ041-WIZ053-WIZ054-           
     WIZ055-WIZ061.                                                             
MN...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR MNZ086-MNZ087-MNZ088-           
     MNZ094-MNZ095-MNZ096.                                                      
IA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR IAZ008-IAZ009-IAZ010-           
     IAZ011-IAZ018-IAZ019-IAZ029-IAZ030.                                        
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
RIECK                                                                           
</pre> wi                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO                                              
357 AM MDT SUN AUG 19 2007                                                      
.SHORT TERM...                                                                  
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)                                                             
MAIN SHORT TERM CONCERN IS THE AMOUNT OF CONVECTION ACROSS THE                  
HIGHER TERRAIN.                                                                 
CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATING               
GENERALLY WEAK WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE REGION WITH              
FASTER ZONAL FLOW CONTINUING ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER AS UPPER LEVEL            
HIGH PRESSURE PERSISTS ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO ATTM. WATER VAPOR             
IMAGERY ALSO INDICATING MINOR SHORT WAVE EMBEDDED IN THE WESTERLY               
FLOW MOVING INTO WESTERN WYOMING WITH DRIER AIR ALOFT MOVING ACROSS             
EASTERN UTAH AND INTO WESTERN COLORADO ATTM. CURRENT OBSERVATIONS               
AND SATELLITE INDICATING IFR STRATUS ACROSS THE WESTERN TEXAS AND               
OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE INTO WESTERN KANSAS...WITH SOME PATCHY MVFR/IFR              
CIGS ACROSS EXTREME SE COLORADO ATTM.                                           
TODAY AND TONIGHT...NOT MUCH CHANGE IN CURRENT FORECAST THINKING AS             
MODELS REMAIN CONSISTENT WITH KEEPING DRIER WESTERLY ALOFT ACROSS               
MUCH OF THE REGION AS WESTERN WYOMING SHORT WAVE CONTINUES TO MOVE              
ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES THROUGH TONIGHT. WITH ENOUGH RESIDUAL               
MOISTURE ALONG WITH DAYTIME HEATING...CANT RULE OUT ISOLATED                    
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN THIS AFTERNOON               
AND EVENING AND HAVE KEPT THE BEST POPS ACROSS THE CENTRAL MTS WITH             
PROXIMITY TO PASSING WAVE. MODELS INDICATING SLIGHT WARMING ALOFT               
WITH H7 TEMPS PROGGED BETWEEN 14-18C...AND WITH LESS CONVECTIVE                 
CLOUD COVER...SHOULD SEE HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO UPPER 90S ACROSS             
THE PLAINS...WITH 60S TO LOWER 80S ACROSS THE HIGH TERRAIN.                     
CONVECTION TO DIMINISH WITH THE SUN THIS EVENING WITH CLEARING SKIES            
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. MODELS INDICATING WARM AIR ALOFT PERSISTING              
ACROSS THE REGION...AND HAVE WARMED OVERNIGHT LOWS A TAD MAINLY                 
ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. -MW                                               
.LONG TERM...                                                                   
(MONDAY THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY)                                                  
WESTERLY FLOW INCREASES ACROSS THE AREA ON MONDAY...AS FIRST PIECE              
OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST UPPER TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE NRN                     
ROCKIES. SHOULD BE WARMER AND DRIER ALL AREAS AS WEST WINDS PUSH                
MOISTURE AXIS EASTWARD AND DOWNSLOPE FLOW DEVELOPS ON THE PLAINS.               
LEFT THE LOW POPS IN PLACE OVER THE MOUNTAINS FOR SOME ISOLATED                 
AFTERNOON AND EVENING CONVECTION AS MODELS HAVE BEEN TOO QUICK TO               
DRY THE AIR MASS OUT THIS SUMMER. MIGHT SEE A WEAK NORTHERLY SURGE              
OVER THE PLAINS MONDAY AFTERNOON AS UPPER JET PUSHES OUT INTO THE               
PLAINS...BUT LITTLE IN THE WAY OF MOISTURE OR COOL AIR ASSOCIATED               
WITH IT. WESTERLY FLOW CONTINUES TUESDAY...WITH MORE SIGNIFICANT                
BOUNDARY DEVELOPING OVER NORTHEAST COLORADO BY TUESDAY EVENING AS               
MAIN UPPER JET PUSHES ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. SHOULD SEE FRONT              
PUSH THROUGH THE EAST BY MID-MORNING WEDNESDAY WITH A FAIRLY MOIST              
UPSLOPE SURGE DEVELOPING OVER THE PLAINS DURING THE DAY. EXPECT                 
BEST CHANCE OF PRECIP OVER MUCH OF THE AREA TO BE WEDNESDAY                     
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH PERHAPS ENOUGH MOISTURE LINGERING FOR              
ANOTHER ROUND OF STORMS THURSDAY. SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS BOTH                    
WED/THU BEHIND THE FRONT...THOUGH READINGS WILL ONLY FALL BACK TO               
NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS AS BULK OF THE COOLING REMAINS NORTH.                     
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...PATCHY MVFR/IFR CIGS ACROSS EXTREME SE COLORADO TO                  
QUICKLY BURN OFF THIS MORNING. LESS CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TODAY AS             
DRIER AIR ALOFT MOVES INTO THE REGION...THOUGH CANT RULE OUT                    
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN...WITH VCTS                    
POSSIBLE FOR KCOS TAF BETWEEN 22-02Z. -MW                                       
&&                                                                              
.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
NONE.                                                                           
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
23/10                                                                           
</pre> co                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI                                             
120 AM EDT SUN AUG 19 2007                                                      
.AVIATION...NOT MUCH HAS CHANGED SINCE THE 00Z TAF ISSUANCE. THE                
RAIN HAS CONTINUED TO MOVE SOUTH OF THE REGION. EXPECT VFR                      
CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL FOR THE MAJORITY OF THIS TAF CYCLE WITH A MID             
TO UPPER LEVEL OVERCAST. A WAVE PUSHING ACROSS THE NORTHERN OHIO                
VALLEY MAY DROP CEILINGS TO MVFR AT KTVC TOMORROW EVENING.                      
HOWEVER...EXPECT ANY RAIN TO REMAIN SOUTH OF THE TAF SITES THROUGH              
THE PERIOD.                                                                     
LUTZ/MSB                                                                        
&&                                                                              
.UPDATE...ISSUED 1041 PM                                                        
AS THE RADAR HAS BEEN SHOWING THIS EVENING...THE RAIN SHOWERS HAVE              
BEEN MOVING TO THE SOUTH AND EAST. TRIMMED THE RAIN FARTHER SOUTH               
AND MAY HAVE TO UPDATE AGAIN AS THE RAIN LOOKING UPSTREAM ARE                   
SHOWING WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND SPRINKLES. OTHERWISE, THE                  
TEMPERATURES LOOKS GOOD WITH THE CLOUD COVER THAT IS OVER THE REGION            
AND THE HIGH PRESSURE THAT IS KEEPING THE WINDS DOWN TONIGHT.                   
LUTZ                                                                            
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 328 PM                                                
ANOTHER NICE FALL-LIKE DAY ACROSS THE CWA WITH HIGH PRESSURE FULLY              
IN CONTROL WILL TRANSITION TO A BIT MORE TRICKY FORECAST OVERNIGHT.             
EARLY AFTERNOON ANALYSIS SHOWS A BUILDING LOW/ MID LEVEL RIDGE                  
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES...WITH SURFACE RIDGING STILL CENTERED               
ACROSS NORTHERN MICHIGAN BUT BEGINNING TO SLIP EAST EVER-SO-SLOWLY.             
RETURN FLOW ON THE BACKSIDE OF SOUTHEAST RIDGE FULLY UNDERWAY...WITH            
ONGOING BROAD ISENTROPIC ASCENT CONTINUING TO DRIVE A RATHER                    
EXPANSIVE AREA OF PRECIPITATION LIFTING THROUGH WISCONSIN. IT IS                
THIS AREA OF PRECIPITATION THAT REMAINS THE PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN            
FOR TONIGHT...NAMELY WILL IT AFFECT THE CWA AND WHAT EFFECT WILL THE            
ADDITIONAL CLOUDS HAVE ON OVERNIGHT LOWS.                                       
QUICK LOOK AT REGIONAL RADAR MOSAIC SHOWS A BIT BETTER ORGANIZED                
AREA OF PRECIP THAN SUGGESTED BY THE 12Z MODEL GUIDANCE...OWING                 
PRIMARILY TO APPARENT ADDED JET DIVERGENCE...WITH JET ENTRANCE                  
REGION SLIPPING ACROSS FAR NORTHERN MINNESOTA...AS WELL AS A                    
PRONOUNCED VORT PROGRESSING INTO WESTERN MINNESOTA PER RUC ANALYSIS/            
WATER VAPOR PICS (REMNANTS OF LAST NIGHT`S CONVECTION OVER THE                  
BLACK HILLS?). HAVE BEEN RATHER IMPRESSED AT PRECIP`S ABILITY TO                
OVERCOME DRY AIRMASS JUST TO THE WEST...WITH QUITE A FEW SITES                  
GOING FROM BKN-OVC200 DOWN TO OVC070 WITH PRECIP IN AN HOUR...ALSO              
SUGGESTING FORCED ASCENT A BIT BETTER THAN MODELS CREDIT. THIS ALL              
LEADS TO A RATHER MURKY PRECIP FORECAST FOR THE APX CWA OVERNIGHT...            
AS THINKING HAS BEEN DRY AIR WOULD WIN OUT...AND IT DOES APPEAR                 
THIS WILL WORK FOR THE NORTHERN HALF...BUT HAVE HAD TO RE-EVALUATE              
FARTHER SOUTH. OVERNIGHT...THE LIFT FOR PRECIP WILL CERTAINLY BE                
THERE...WITH DECENT 305-310K ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE (25-30 KNOTS UP                 
THE SURFACE) ON THE INCREASE AS WARM ADVECTION COMMENCES...WITH                 
DEEP LAYER (900-700MB) FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING IN PLACE AS WELL                 
GIVEN TIGHT BAROCLINIC ZONE ACROSS THE MIDWEST/LOWER GREAT LAKES.               
HOWEVER...RH PROGS ON THESE SURFACES AND SFC-H85 THETA-E ALSO SHOW              
A SHARP CUTOFF TO DEEP MOISTURE...AS BOTH CONVECTION TO THE SOUTH               
TAKES OVER TONIGHT...AND DEEP LAYER SUBSIDENCE/DRYING THIS                      
AFTERNOON AND EVENING (SFC-700MB RH LESS THAN 35%) HOLD FIRM.                   
THUS...WHILE THE OVERALL TREND OF THE DRY AIR WINNING OUT STILL                 
LOOKS OK...HAVE TRENDED POPS FARTHER NORTH THROUGH THE NIGHTTIME                
HOURS...IN LINE WITH THE 09Z SREF/12Z UKMET WHICH SEEM TO HAVE A                
BETTER HANDLE ON CURRENT PRECIP. STILL NOT TALKING ABOUT A WHOLE                
LOT OF RAIN...BUT ANY RAIN IS WELCOME AT THIS POINT. NO THREAT OF               
ANY THUNDER OWING TO LACK OF MOISTURE/INSTABILITY AS WELL AS FLAT               
MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES.                                                          
AS FOR TEMPERATURES...THESE ALSO TRICKY GIVEN UNCERTAIN DEGREE OF               
CLOUD COVER. CLOUDY CONDITIONS EXPECTED THRU THE NIGHT ACROSS THE               
SOUTH IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO FORCING/BETTER MOISTURE...WHILE MAY                
VERY WELL SEE THINGS CLEAR OUT ACROSS THE NORTH WITH BETTER                     
SUBSIDENCE. WILL HOLD NUMBERS UP ABOVE GUIDANCE VALUES ACROSS THE               
SOUTH WITH PLENTIFUL CLOUD COVER...BUT CONTINUE PREVIOUS IDEA OF                
RATHER COOL READINGS (LOWER 40S...IF NOT A FEW UPPER 30S) FAR NORTH             
GIVEN SFC RIDGE AXIS HOLDING IN WITH FLOW DECOUPLING AND RESIDUAL               
DRY AIRMASS STILL IN PLACE.                                                     
LAWRENCE                                                                        
LONG TERM...RECENT PATTERN OF TROUGHS OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC AND              
EASTERN CANADA/NEW ENGLAND...AND LOW AMPLITUDE RIDGING IN BETWEEN               
EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE PROGRESSIVE FOR THE COMING WEEK...AS                    
PACIFIC TROUGH MOVES INLAND AND HEIGHTS RISE ACROSS THE GREAT                   
LAKES. HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE AT THE ONSET OF THE FORECAST PERIOD               
TODAY WILL SLIDE EAST/NORTHEAST...ELONGATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY                    
STRETCHING FROM THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE                    
TENNESSEE VALLEY WILL SLOWLY LIFT NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT IN                  
RESPONSE. THIS WARM FRONT NOT LIKELY TO EVEN REACH LOWER MI UNTIL               
LATER MONDAY...AND EVEN THEN WILL PROBABLY HANG ALONG THE SOUTHERN              
BORDER THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEK. SINCE THIS BOUNDARY WILL             
BE THE MAIN FOCUS FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL              
DAYS...MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS FOR THE NEAR TERM PORTION OF THE                  
FORECAST WILL BASICALLY DEAL WITH HOW FAR NORTH THE THREAT FOR                  
RAIN WILL REACH.                                                                
SUNDAY...EXPECT A GOOD DEAL OF CONVECTION TO BE GOING SOUTHWEST/                
SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA TO START SUNDAY MORNING ALONG                        
FRONTOGENETICALLY ACTIVE WARM FRONTAL ZONE WHICH IS EXPECTED TO                 
EXTEND ACROSS SOUTHERN WI/FAR SOUTHERN LOWER MI (ACTUAL WARM FRONT              
WILL LIE ACROSS NORTHEAST IA/NORTHERN IL/CENTRAL IN). AXIS OF                   
DEEPER MOISTURE WILL PROBABLY REMAIN MAINLY SOUTH OF THE FORECAST               
AREA AS WELL...NAM TRIES TO BRING MOISTURE/QPF FARTHER NORTH                    
ALTHOUGH ITS PRESUMED MCS DEVELOPMENT LOOKS TO BE TOO FAR NORTH                 
(AS DOES ITS WARM FRONTAL POSITION). BUT RELUCTANT TO COMPLETELY                
JUMP ONTO ONE SPECIFIC MODEL SOLUTION GIVEN WHAT IS CURRENTLY                   
HAPPENING UPSTREAM TODAY...WILL SIMPLY EXPAND CURRENT RAIN CHANCES              
NORTH AND EAST A BIT TO ALLOW FOR A BIGGER MARGIN OF ERROR.                     
CURRENT EXPECTATION IS THAT MOST OF THE PRECIP WILL BE SOUTH OF                 
THE FORECAST AREA...ESPECIALLY IF MID LEVEL WINDS HAVE MORE OF A                
NORTHERLY COMPONENT. WILL GO DRY SUNDAY NIGHT WITH PRECIPITATION                
TO THE SOUTH ALONG THE WARM FRONT...AND POSSIBLY SOME WARM                      
ADVECTION PRECIP ACROSS WI.                                                     
MONDAY...WARM FRONT STILL WELL TO THE SOUTH...THOUGH SOME LOW/MID               
LEVEL WARM ADVECTION PUSHES INTO PARTS OF NORTHERN LOWER ALONG                  
WITH SOME ATTENDANT DEEPER MOISTURE. WILL CONTINUE LOW CHANCE POPS              
SOUTH OF M-72 TO COVER THIS. OTHERWISE MAIN ACTION REMAINS SOUTH                
OF THE STATE...WITH PERHAPS THE REMNANTS OF T.D. "ERIN" GETTING                 
SCOOPED UP AND INVOLVED WITH HAPPENINGS ALONG THE WARM FRONT                    
ACROSS THE NORTHERN OHIO VALLEY. AT THIS POINT HOWEVER THIS DOES                
NOT APPEAR TO BE A THREAT FOR NORTHERN MI.                                      
EXTENDED PERIODS (TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...HEIGHT FALLS                      
PROGRESSING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL EVENTUALLY HELP LIFT                
THE WARM FRONT INTO THE STATE IN THE LATER TUESDAY TIME FRAME...                
FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT WEDNESDAY. CURRENT RAIN CHANCES FOR                    
TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY LOOK REASONABLE GIVEN THIS PROGRESSION...THOUGH               
IF THE WARM FRONT TIMING IS SLOW AREAS FARTHER NORTH COULD END UP               
BEING DRY FOR MUCH OF TUESDAY...AND THAT IS A CONCERN THAT WILL                 
NEED TO BE WATCHED.  FORECAST GETS MORE COMPLICATED FOR THURSDAY                
AND BEYOND...ONCE COLD FRONT GOES THROUGH IT WILL EVENTUALLY SLOW               
DOWN AND PARALLEL UPPER FLOW. WHERE EXACTLY THE BOUNDARY HANGS UP               
WILL DETERMINE WHAT TYPE OF PRECIPITATION CHANCES WE END UP WITH...             
ASSUMING FRONT HANGS UP SOMEWHERE ACROSS LOWER MI/WI...WE COULD BE              
STARING AT CARRYING RAIN CHANCES EACH DAY FROM THURSDAY THROUGH                 
SATURDAY. GIVEN THE RECENT EXPANDING DROUGHT CONDITIONS NOT                     
EXACTLY COMFORTABLE WITH THAT. CURRENT FORECAST HAS RAIN CHANCES                
THURSDAY AND DRY FRIDAY...ACTUALLY THINK THE OPPOSITE MAY BE A                  
BETTER WAY TO GO AND WILL PUSH THE FORECAST IN THAT DIRECTION                   
DESPITE POTENTIAL FOR FLIP-FLOPPING OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL FORECAST              
CYCLES. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL PROBABLY AVERAGE A                 
BIT ABOVE NORMAL...MOSTLY DEPENDING ON CLOUD/PRECIPITATION                      
COVERAGE EACH DAY.                                                              
JPB                                                                             
&&                                                                              
.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                        
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</pre> mi                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
114 AM EDT SUN AUG 19 2007                                                      
UPDATED AVIATION SECTION FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE                                   
.UPDATE...(ISSUED AT 948 PM EDT SAT AUG 18)                                     
LATEST RADAR LOOP SHOWS BANDS OF SHOWERS STRETCHING FROM                        
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN MN INTO SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN BECOMING SMALLER               
WIDTH WISE...NOW MOSTLY CONCENTRATED ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-94.                   
HOWEVER...THIS CONCENTRATED ZONE NOW CONSISTS OF HEAVIER SHOWERS AND            
THUNDERSTORMS...LIKELY DUE TO INCREASING SOUTHWEST WINDS AT 850MB               
NOTED ON THE BLUE RIVER WISCONSIN PROFILER (NOW 30-35KT) IMPINGING              
ON THE NEARLY STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY. PLENTY OF HEAT AND                   
MOISTURE EXISTS SOUTH OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO SUSTAIN THE                    
CONVECTION...ESPECIALLY WITH THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL STORM ERIN                
BEING ADVECTED NORTHWARD WITHIN THE LOW LEVEL JET. CLOSER TO                    
HOME...EXCEPT FOR A FEW OF THE SHOWERS BRUSHING THE MENOMINEE AREA              
BETWEEN 20-24Z...THE CWA REMAINS DRY WITH MID AND HIGH CLOUDS                   
CROSSING. THESE CLOUDS ARE ALSO ASSOCIATED WITH THE MID-LEVEL                   
FRONTOGENESIS AND RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION FORCING AIDING IN THE                   
SHOWERS FARTHER TO THE SW.                                                      
WITH THE SHOWERS DRYING UP FROM CENTRAL MN INTO EAST-CENTRAL                    
WI...THERE IS CONCERN THAT PCPN MAY BE ENTIRELY DONE NOW MENOMINEE              
COUNTY (THE ONLY PLACE WITH -SHRA MENTION IN THE CWA). TWO THINGS               
COULD BE OCCURRING THAT IS CAUSING THE DIMINISHING OF SHOWERS:                  
INCREASED CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IN SOUTHERN MN AND SOUTHERN WI IS                 
INHIBITING MOISTURE TRANSPORT TOWARDS NORTHERN WI AND/OR THE                    
COMBINATION OF THE MID-LEVEL FRONTOGENETICAL AND UPPER LEVEL JET                
CIRCULATIONS ARE DRIVING DRIER AIR SOUTHWESTWARD. 20Z TAMDAR                    
SOUNDING FROM CHIPPEWA COUNTY AIRPORT SHOWED A LOT OF DRY AIR IN THE            
600-800MB LAYER (DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS OF 20C OR MORE). GIVEN THAT               
THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW IS PROGGED TO REMAIN CONFLUENT WITH HEIGHTS                
RISING INTO SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA...AND TROUGHING IN NEW                         
ENGLAND...THINK IT WILL BE HARD TO GET THE SHOWERS NORTHWARD. THE               
18Z GFS CONCURS WITH THIS IDEA...AND THUS HAVE DECIDED TO REMOVE                
SHOWERS FROM THE FCST THROUGH 18Z MON.                                          
GOING TEMPS SEEM REASONABLE...THOUGH SINCE SKIES REMAIN CLEAR OUT               
EAST AND LOW PRECIPITABLE WATER THERE...HAVE DECIDED TO DROP TEMPS A            
FEW MORE DEGREES. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE ABOUT 0.25 INCH                 
HIGHER THAN LAST NIGHT...SUGGESTING LOWS SHOULD NOT GET AS COLD.                
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT AND SUNDAY)                                              
MAIN FCST CONCERNS ARE PCPN CHANCES ALONG WITH CLOUDS/TEMPS.                    
WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS INDICATED A TROF INTO THE PAC NW A RDG              
FROM THE PLAINS TO SASK AND A TROF FROM ERN CANADA INTO NRN NEW                 
ENGLAND RESULTING IN WNW FLOW THROUGH THE NRN GREAT LAKES. A WEAK               
SHORTWAVE TROUGH FROM WRN WI TO NRN IA WAS MOVING E. AT THE                     
SFC...LOW PRES WAS LOCATED OVER SRN SD WITH A WARM FRONT EXTENDING              
THROUGH CNTRL IA TO ERN MO. THE COMBINATION OF UPPER LEVEL DIV WITH             
THE RIGHT ENTRANCE OF TH 250-300 JET AND 850-700 FGEN AND ASSOCIATED            
305K-310K ISENTROPIC LIFT SUPPORTED A BROAD AREA OF RAIN FROM ERN MN            
THROUGH THE S 2/3 OF WI. TSRA WERE CONFINED TO A BAND CLOSER TO THE             
FRONT...FROM SRN MN INTO SW WI AND NRN IL. VIS IMAGERY SHOWED MID               
HIGH CLOUDS HAD THINNED OUT OVER THE NRN CWA WITH THE THICKER CLOUDS            
REMAINING NEAR THE WI BORDER. RADARS ALSO SHOWED RETURNS CREEPING               
FROM WI CLOSER TO THE BORDER BUT WITH SFC -RA REPORTS LAGGING                   
FARTHER TO THE S DUE TO THE PRESENCE OF A SUBSTANTIAL 850-650 MB DRY            
LAYER PER 18Z KSAW TAMDAR SOUNDINGS AND EARLIER KRHI SOUNDING.                  
WITH THE VERY DRY AIRMASS LINGERING TO THE NORTH AND CONFLUENT                  
MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW N OF THE AREA LEADING TO MAINLY E OR ESE SHIFT             
OF THE AFOREMENTIONED RAIN SUPPORTING DYNAMICS...ANY ADDITIONAL                 
PROGRESS OF THE PCPN INTO UPPER MI FROM TONIGHT INTO EARLY SUN WILL             
BE MARGINAL. SO...LOWER END POPS WERE CONFINED TO MAINLY THE SRN                
HALF OF MENOMINEE COUNTY.                                                       
ALTHOUGH THE MID/HIGH CLOUDS MAY REDUCE RADIATIONAL COOLING COMPARED            
TO LAST NIGHT...THEY SHOULD REMAIN THIN ENOUGH TO ALLOW INLAND TEMPS            
TO DROP INTO THE 40S. SIMILARLY...MAINLY THIN HIGH CLOUDS AGAIN                 
SUNDAY AND DECENT SUNSHINE WITH 850 MB TEMPS AROUND 9C SUPPORTS                 
MAX READINGS INTO THE LOWER 70S.                                                
.LONG TERM (SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)...                                   
STUBBORN PATTERN FINALLY BEGINS TO ERODE BY EARLY IN THE WORK                   
WEEK...NEVERTHELESS SFC HIGH AND SOME MID LEVEL RIDGING WILL SHUNT              
THE BEST DYNAMICS SOUTH OF THE CWFA...SENDING THE PRECIP CHANCES                
SOUTH WITH IT THROUGH MONDAY. BROAD TROUGHING OVER THE WESTERN CONUS            
BEGINS TO SHIFT THE RIDGE EASTWARD...ALLOWING A SURFACE LOW OVER                
WEST CENTRAL CANADA TO DEEPEN WHILE REMAINING NEARLY STATIONARY FROM            
00Z TUE TO 00Z WED. ENERGY WRAPPING AROUND THE LOW REACHES INTO                 
THE NORTH CENTRAL PLAINS AND INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES.                        
WARM FRONT IN CENTRAL WI BY TUE MORNING WARRANTS CONTINUED MENTION              
OF CHANCE POPS IN THE SOUTHERN CWFA OVERNIGHT MONDAY...ALTHOUGH                 
ENERGY COULD AGAIN REMAIN MOSTLY SOUTH OF UPPER MI UNTIL TUESDAY                
AFTERNOON. WARM AND MOIST AIR ADVECTING INTO THE CWFA ON TUESDAY                
AHEAD OF THE TRAILING COLD FRONT ALSO LEND TO THE IDEA OF POSSIBLE              
SEVERE ACTIVITY WITH SOME OF DEVELOPING THUNDERSTORMS...ALTHOUGH THE            
BEST DYNAMICS AND MOST MOISTURE SUGGESTS THE GREATEST THREAT WOULD              
BE OVER THE EASTERN MN/WESTERN WI AREA.                                         
LOOKING AT SOME PARAMETERS MORE CLOSELY FOR THE TUESDAY AFTERNOON               
THROUGH EVENING TIMEFRAME SUGGESTS THAT SHOULD THUNDERSTORMS                    
DEVELOP...SOME OF THE STORMS MAY BE SEVERE. BETWEEN 18Z TUE AND 06Z             
WED...0-6 BULK SHEAR OVER THE WESTERN COUNTIES AND LAKE SUPERIOR                
INCREASES FROM 30-35 KT TO THE 60S. AT THE SAME TIME...0-2 SHEAR                
TOPS OUT AROUND 30-40 KT WITH GOOD LOW LEVEL DIRECTIONAL SHEAR. KIMT            
HODOGRAPH SHOWS STRONG CLOCKWISE SPIN ALONG WITH AN LCL AROUND 1000             
FT AT 21Z TUE. MUCAPES INCREASE DRAMATICALLY FROM WEST TO EAST                  
ACROSS THE CWFA DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY...PEAKING AROUND 2200 J/KG            
AT KIWD IN THE AFTERNOON. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINLY IN THE TIMING/CHANCE            
OF THUNDERSTORMS...NEVERMIND IF THEY COULD BE SEVERE OVER THE                   
WEST/WEST CENTRAL...DID NOT INCREASE POPS THROUGH THE TIME PERIOD               
BUT MENTIONED IN HWO.                                                           
MODELS SHOW MORE ZONAL FLOW BY THE DAY 6 TIMEFRAME...WITH SOME                  
SHORTWAVES RIPPLING THROUGH...AND DIGGING UP A LOW FROM THE PLAINS              
AND EJECTING IT TOWARD THE UPPER GREAT LAKES...WITH RIDIGING OVER               
THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST BY DAY 7. SO...GIVEN THE DECENT                          
AGREEMENT...AT THIS POINT IT LOOKS LIKE THE OPEN HOUSE...SCHEDULED              
FOR SATURDAY...SHOULD BE GOOD TO GO...PROVIDED SHORTWAVES ROTATING              
AROUND THE BASE OF THE TROUGH REMAIN SOUTH OF THE CWFA.                         
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION (FOR THE 06Z TAF ISSUANCE)...                                         
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST DUE TO LOW LEVEL DRY AIR                 
HOLDING ON FROM HIGH PRESSURE JUST TO THE NE OF LAKE SUPERIOR. LOOK             
FOR A GENERAL EAST WIND...WITH INCREASING SPEED ON SUNDAY AS THE                
HIGH SHIFTS TO THE EAST AND A TROUGH DEVELOPS FROM NORTHERN IA INTO             
SRN WI. WINDS MAY BECOME GUSTY IN THE AFTERNOON AT BOTH TAF SITES AS            
INLAND WARMING CREATES LAKE BREEZES...ADDING ONTO THE WIND SPEED.               
&&                                                                              
.MARINE (FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)...                       
LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BACK TO THE E AND SE LATE THIS AFTERNOON             
AS THE HIGH DRIFTS TO THE E. AS LOW PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN                  
HIGH PLAINS MOVES TOWARD THE REGION...EASTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE              
OVER LAKE SUPERIOR LATE SUN AS HIGH PRES MOVES TOWARD JAMES BAY AND             
A LOW PRES TROUGH SPREADS INTO SRN MN AND SRN WI. WINDS INTO THE                
15-25 KT RANGE ARE EXPECTED WITH THE HIGHEST WINDSPEED OVER THE FAR             
WRN LAKE FAVORED BY PRES UPSTREAM UPSTREAM PRES FALLS AND TERRAIN               
EFFECTS. A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA ON WED AS            
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LIFTS NE OF LAKE SUPERIOR.                                  
&&                                                                              
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                        
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
UPDATE...AJ                                                                     
SHORT TERM...JLB                                                                
LONG TERM...JLL                                                                 
AVIATION...AJ                                                                   
MARINE...JLB                                                                    
</pre> mi                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY                                             
312 AM EDT SUN AUG 19 2007                                                      
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
WHILE HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP FAIR AND SEASONABLY COOL CONDITIONS               
ACROSS THE BULK OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH MONDAY...THERE WILL                
BE A SHARP GRADIENT OVER THE SOUTHERN TIER LEADING TO WIDESPREAD                
SHOWERS JUST SOUTH OF THE BORDER. TUESDAY WILL THEN SERVE AS A                  
TRANSITION DAY AS WARMER AND MORE HUMID CONDITIONS WILL RETURN FOR              
THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.                                                      
&&                                                                              
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...                                                 
SFC HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM HUDSON BAY TO THE CAROLIANS WILL               
CONTINUE TO KEEP FAIR BUT COOL WEATHER ACROSS THE BULK OF WESTERN               
AND NORTH CENTRAL NEW YORK TODAY AND TONIGHT...BUT A RIBBON OF                  
MOISTURE JUST TO OUR SOUTH WILL RESULT IN WIDESPREAD SHOWERS FROM               
THE PENNSYLVANIA BORDER SOUTHWARDS. THE SHARP GRADIENT ON THE NRN               
EDGE OF THE PCPN WILL RESULT IN A LOWER FORECAST CONFIDENCE ACROSS              
THE IAG FRONTIER AND WRN SOUTHERN TIER...WHILE A HIGH CONFIDENCE                
FORECAST WILL BE FOUND EAST OF LK ONTARIO.                                      
AS OF 07Z...A 75 MILE WIDE BAND OF FAIRLY STEADY RAIN EXTENDED                  
FROM THE SOUTHERN HALF OF WISCONSIN AND MICHIGAN TO NORTHEASTERN                
OHIO AND INTO WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA. THIS AREA OF RAIN COINCIDES                 
WELL WITH THE AREA OF LIFT THAT ONE WOULD EXPECT TO FIND UNDER THE              
ENTRANCE REGION OF A 130 KT H2 JET THAT IS ALIGNED FROM WESTERN                 
ONTARIO AND THE UPPER GREAT LAKES TO NORTHERN NEW YORK AND COASTAL              
NEW ENGLAND. JET INDUCED LIFT FROM THE RR QUAD OF THE JET IS                    
COMBINING WITH LOW LEVEL ISENTROPIC LIFT TO PRODUCE THIS SWATH OF               
RAIN.                                                                           
HOW ARE THE MODELS HANDLING THIS? THUS FAR THE NAM/WRF AND GFS ARE              
VERY SIMILAR IN THEIR SOLUTIONS ON THE NRN EDGE OF THE RAIN...BUT               
THE NAM/WRF APPEARS TO BE UNDERDONE AT THIS TIME AND DOES NOT HAVE              
A GOOD HANDLE ON THE EASTWARD EXTENT OF THE RAIN INTO PA. THE GFS               
DOES NOT HAVE THIS PROBLEM THROUGH ITS FIRST 6 HRS. THE SHORTER                 
RANGE RUC IS GROSSLY UNDER DONE ON THE AREAL EXTENT OF THE RAIN                 
AND APPEARS TO HAVE BIG PROBLEMS ALL THE WAY OUT THROUGH ITS 12 HR              
FORECAST. BOIL THIS ALL DOWN AND THE GFS SEEMS TO BE THE MODEL OF               
CHOICE...AS IT HAS BEEN WITH ITS SOLUTION FOR THE PAST SEVERAL                  
DAYS. THE NAM/WRF IS JUST NOW COMING INTO LINE WITH IT.                         
GIVEN THE IR AND COMPOSITE RADAR TRENDS...WILL CONTINUE TO RELY                 
MORE ON THE GFS GUIDANCE WITH THIS RAIN EVENT. I WILL RAISE POPS                
EVER SO SLIGHTLY SOUTH OF BUFFALO SO THAT A CHANCE OF SPRINKLES                 
WILL BE MENTIONED IN THE IAG FRONTIER TODAY WITH HIGH CHC POPS                  
FOUND OVER THE SRN TIER. THE HIGH CHC POPS WILL BECOME LIKELY THIS              
EVENING FOR SITES NEAR THE BORDER.                                              
THIS FORECAST WILL BE A BIT MORE PESSIMISTIC THAN OUR SURROUNDING               
WFO`S...BUT MORE OPTIMISTIC THAN THE HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL                        
PREDICTION CENTER (HPC) IN TERMS OF ACTUAL QPF.                                 
FOR TONIGHT...THE SHARP GRADIENT WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER NEW                  
YORKS SOUTHERN TIER AND PA`S NRN TIER. HAVE RAISED POPS OVER PARTS              
OF THE IAG FRONTIER AND FINGER LAKES TO LOW CHC POPS TO ALLOW FOR               
A PASSING SHOWER...WHILE LIKELY POPS WILL BE FOUND OVER THE SRN                 
TIER. AGAIN...OUR POPS WILL BE A LITTLE LOWER THAN SURROUNDING                  
WFO`S BUT WILL BE MORE PESSIMISTIC IN TERMS OF THE HPC QPF.                     
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...                                         
THE STRONG H2 JET THAT WILL BE PARTIALLY RESPONSIBLE FOR THE SWATH              
OF RAIN FROM SUNDAY WILL GRADUALLY PULL TO THE EAST AND SETTLE                  
FURTHER SOUTH AS MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT PROGRESSES. THIS WILL                  
HELP TO FURTHER SHUNT THE SWATH OF RAIN TO THE SOUTH...WITH ANY                 
-SHRA OVER THE NEW YORKS SOUTHERN TIER ENDING BY MONDAY EVENING.                
MEANWHILE STRONG SFC HIGH PRESSURE ALONG THE ONTARIO/QUEBEC BORDER              
WILL PRODUCE PARTLY SUNNY SKIES ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF OUR                      
FORECAST AREA.                                                                  
TEMPS MONDAY WILL REMAIN A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL WITH H8 TEMPS OF 8               
TO 10 DEG C KEEPING MAX TEMPS FROM CLIMBING OUT OF THE 60S (SRN                 
TIER) AND 70S. THE LOWER TEMPS OVER THE SRN TIER WILL BE LARGELY                
DUE TO THE CLOUDIER SKY CONDITIONS.                                             
FOR MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...THE SFC HIGH WILL DRIFT ACROSS NEW               
ENGLAND WHILE THE SUPPORTING UPPER RIDGE WILL CROSS THE LOWER GR                
LAKES. THIS WILL KEEP RAINFREE CONDITIONS ACROSS THE VAST MAJORITY              
OF THE FORECAST AREA...ALTHOUGH WE WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION LOW                 
CHC POPS FOR A -SHRA OVER CHAUTAUQUA COUNTY WHERE THE RETURN FLOW               
AROUND THE HIGH COULD HELP TO USHER IN A SHOWER FROM THE SOUTH.                 
THIS WILL ALSO HELP TO MESH BETTER WITH WFO CLE POPS TO OUR WEST.               
AS MENTIONED IN THE SYNOPSIS...THIS PERIOD WILL ALSO SERVE AS A                 
TRANSITION BETWEEN MORE SUMMERY CONDITIONS THAT WILL BE LURKING                 
JUST TO OUR SOUTH AND WEST. MUCH WARMER AND NOTICEABLY MORE HUMID               
CONDITIONS FOUND OVER WESTERN PA...OHIO AND MICHIGAN AT THAT TIME               
WILL BE POISED TO ADVANCE OUR WAY DURING THE REMAINDER OF THE                   
WEEK.                                                                           
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...                                  
THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST CONTINUES TO FEATURE A RETURN              
TO SULTRY SUMMER CONDITIONS...WITH HEAT AND HUMIDITY INCREASING                 
EARLY ON IN THE PERIOD...THEN LIKELY PERSISTING THROUGH THE                     
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.                                                          
ON THE SYNOPTIC SCALE...A BROAD...FLAT RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN HALF              
OF THE NATION EARLY IN IN THE PERIOD WILL GRADUALLY BUILD NORTHWARD             
THROUGH THE MIDDLE AND LATTER PORTIONS OF THE WEEK...WITH THE                   
GENERAL LARGE-SCALE FLOW SHIFTING FROM WEST TO SOUTHWEST. THIS WILL             
ACT TO PUMP INCREASINGLY WARMER AIR BACK INTO THE REGION...WITH 850             
MB TEMPERATURES RISING FROM THE LOWER TEENS AT THE START OF THE                 
PERIOD TO THE +17C TO +20C DEG C RANGE BY LATER IN THE WEEK. AT THE             
VERY LEAST...THIS WILL RESULT IN HIGH TEMPERATURES REACHING WELL                
INTO THE 80S BY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...IF NOT THE LOWER 90S. RIGHT            
NOW WILL CALL FOR HIGHS REACHING THE MID TO UPPER 80S FOR THE MIDDLE            
AND LATTER PORTIONS OF THE WORK WEEK...WHICH IS A BIT ABOVE THE                 
LATEST HPC AND MEX GUIDANCE.                                                    
AS WAS MENTIONED IN THIS SPACE YESTERDAY...THE WARMER WEATHER WILL              
ALSO BE ACCOMPANIED BY MUCH MORE HUMID CONDITIONS. MREF ENSEMBLE                
PRECIPITABLE WATER PLUMES CONTINUE TO DEPICT VALUES RISING TO THE               
1.75 TO 2 INCH RANGE FOR THE WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY                         
PERIOD...WITH A NARROW SPREAD BETWEEN THE INDIVIDUAL MEMBERS                    
(REFLECTIVE OF A FAIRLY HIGH CONFIDENCE FORECAST) ALSO CONTINUING               
THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY. SUCH VALUES ARE ROUGHLY 1 TO 2 STANDARD              
DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL FOR LATE AUGUST...SO IF YOU LIKE IT VERY                
WARM AND HUMID...YOU SHOULD LOVE THE MIDDLE TO LATTER PORTIONS OF               
THE UPCOMING WEEK.                                                              
GETTING A LITTLE BIT FURTHER INTO THE FORECAST DETAILS...THE                    
AREA WILL BE ON THE PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE THAT WILL                  
BECOME CENTERED FROM THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES TO THE WESTERN                     
ATLANTIC. A NUMBER OF UPPER WAVES WILL ROTATE AROUND THIS RIDGE AND             
ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE PERIOD...WITH THE STUBBORN FRONTAL                   
BOUNDARY TO OUR SOUTHWEST LIKELY TO FINALLY LIFT NORTHWARD ACROSS               
THE REGION AS A WARM FRONT BETWEEN TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY                  
NIGHT...ALONG WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF SEVERAL EPISODES OF MCS                   
DEVELOPMENT. THEREAFTER...A TRAILING COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO                  
APPROACH OUR AREA FROM THE UPPER LAKES...BUT STALL OUT JUST TO OUR              
NORTH AND WEST THE REST OF THE WEEK AS SEVERAL WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE            
RIPPLE NORTHEAST ALONG IT. WHILE MOST OF THE THURSDAY THROUGH                   
SATURDAY PERIOD IS LIKELY TO BE DRY...HAVE LEFT LOW CHANCE POPS IN              
PLAY THROUGHOUT DUE TO THE NEARBY PRESENCE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED                
FRONTAL BOUNDARY...AND THE VERY WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS THAT SHOULD              
STILL BE IN PLACE.                                                              
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION /07Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...                                      
A DISTURBANCE PASSING ALONG A STALLED OUT-FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER OHIO            
AND WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA WILL BRING INCREASING MID AND UPPER CLOUDS             
TODAY AND MONDAY...WITH CLOUDS MAINLY THIN EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO.                
MOST IF NOT ALL PRECIP WILL REMAIN TO THE SOUTH AND WEST OF TAF                 
SITES...THE ONLY EXCEPTION BEING AT KJHW WHERE PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN            
FROM A VFR MID DECK OF CLOUDS WILL BE POSSIBLE TODAY AND THIS                   
EVENING...AND AGAIN ON MONDAY.                                                  
THE STALLED-OUT FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY LIFT ACROSS              
WESTERN NEW YORK SOMETIME BETWEEN TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.            
WHILE THE EXACT TIMING OF THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE REMAINS IN                       
QUESTION...IT WILL LIKELY BRING A MORE WIDESPREAD RISK OF SHOWERS               
AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA WHEN IT PASSES THROUGH...ALONG WITH               
THE CHANCE OF SOME MVFR-LEVEL RESTRICTIONS.                                     
&&                                                                              
.MARINE...                                                                      
HIGH PRESSURE OVER NORTHERN ONTARIO WILL SHIFT TO WESTERN QUEBEC BY             
TONIGHT. A STATIONARY FRONT WILL EXTEND EAST FRO LOW PRESSURE OVER              
THE MIDWESTERN STATES TO JUST NORTH OF THE OHIO VALLEY AND ACROSS               
PENNSYLVANIA. THIS WILL INCREASE THE PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER LAKE                
ONTARIO AND DEVELOP A STRONGER EAST WIND ALONG THE EAST/WEST FETCH              
OF THE LAKE AND PRODUCE WINDS TO 20 KNOTS TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY                
EVENING. WAVES WILL ALSO INCREASE WITH THE STRONGER WINDS...RANGING             
FROM 3 TO 5 FEET ALONG THE NEARSHORE WATERS FROM THE NIAGARA RIVER              
TO JUST WEST OF IRONDEQUOIT BAY...THUS A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL              
BE IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TROUGH MIDNIGHT MONDAY NIGHT. THE            
GRADIENT WILL RELAX A BIT BY TUESDAY MORNING AND RESULT IN LESSER               
WINDS AND WAVES.                                                                
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT...A WARM FRONT IS EXPECTED TO                
APPROACH AND CROSS THE AREA FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST. THIS                   
FEATURE WILL LIKELY BRING A RISK OF SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY            
TO THE AREA DURING THIS TIME FRAME.                                             
&&                                                                              
.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
NY...NONE.                                                                      
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 11 PM EDT MONDAY         
         FOR LOZ042.                                                            
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SYNOPSIS...RSH                                                                  
NEAR TERM...RSH                                                                 
SHORT TERM...RSH                                                                
LONG TERM...JJR                                                                 
AVIATION...WCH                                                                  
MARINE...WCH                                                                    
</pre> ny                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH                                          
413 AM EDT SUN AUG 19 2007                                                      
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTHEAST FROM THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY INTO                
THE LOWER GREAT LAKES TODAY. THIS FRONT WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE                  
REGION INTO THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEK...ACTING AS A FOCUS FOR                  
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.                                                      
&&                                                                              
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...                                         
A WARM FRONT ACRS THE MID MS AND LOWER OHIO RIVER VLY WILL LIFT                 
SLOWLY NE TOWARD THE LOWER GREAT LAKES TODAY. WARM...MOIST ASCENT               
WAS OCCURRING WELL NORTH OF THIS BOUNDARY INTO THE UPR MIDWEST AND              
LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION THIS MORNING. MOSAIC RADAR WAS SHOWING A               
BAND OF PCPN FROM SRN MN SE INTO NRN OHIO. WILL USE A BLEND OF THE              
OPERATIONAL NAM-WRF AND LATEST RUC40 MODELS FOR THE NEAR TERM FCST              
AS THEY ARE CAPTURING THE CURRENT PCPN BAND THE BEST. STILL LOOKS               
LIKE THE MAJORITY OF THE PCPN...ELEVATED IN NATURE...WILL JUST                  
SKIM OUR FAR NORTH THIS MORNING. BY THIS AFTN...WEAK EMBEDDED                   
S/WVS IN THE WNW FLOW ALOFT MAY TRIGGER SOME MORE SHOWERS AND                   
THUNDERSTORMS ACRS THE NORTH. THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION SHOULD                
REMAIN MAINLY DRY THROUGH LATE AFTN EXCEPT THE SW WHERE A SMALL                 
CHC OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN PLACED IN THE FCST DUE               
TO AN APCHING S/WV AND INCREASING INSTABILITY. TEMPERATURES WILL                
BE CLOUD AND PCPN DEPENDENT...AND WILL REQUIRE SOME SHORT TERM                  
ADJUSTMENTS. FOR NOW...HAVE TAILORED HIGHS FROM THE UPPER 70S                   
NORTH TO THE UPPER 80S SOUTH.                                                   
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...                              
A VERY COMPLEX WEATHER PATTERN WILL BE SETTING UP ACRS THE REGION               
THROUGH TUESDAY.                                                                
AFOREMENTIONED WARM FRONT WILL STALL OUT AS A STATIONARY BOUNDARY               
LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY NIGHT. EMBEDDED S/WV IMPULSES WILL RIPPLE              
WITHIN THE WNW FLOW ALOFT ACRS THIS BOUNDARY. TO ADD INSULT TO                  
INJURY...LATEST OPERATIONAL MODELS ARE NOW BRINGING THE REMNANTS OF             
TROPICAL STORM ERIN INTO THE OHIO VALLEY REGION LATE MONDAY NIGHT               
INTO TUESDAY. DEEP MOISTURE FROM ERIN IS FCST TO GET DRAWN NE                   
INTO OUR AREA ON MONDAY...AND WILL BE ENTRENCHED ACRS THE REGION                
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. THE COMBINATION OF DEEP MOISTURE                     
...EMBEDDED S/WVS...AND LOW LVL CONVERGENCE IN THE VCNTY OF FRONTAL             
BOUNDARY WILL BRING A HIGH LIKELIHOOD FOR SHOWERS AND                           
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. THE BEST CHC IS                    
EXPECTED TO OCCUR ACRS THE NRN TWO THIRDS OF THE CWFA ON MONDAY IN              
CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. HAVE INCREASED POPS TO                
THE LIKELY CATEGORY FOR THE ENTIRE REGION MONDAY NIGHT AS THE                   
REMNANTS OF ERIN MOVES SLOWLY INTO THE REGION. HAVE INCREASED POPS              
TO HIGH CHANCE ON TUESDAY AS THE REMNANTS OF ERIN SLOWLY EXIT THE               
REGION. GIVEN THE PROSPECT OF HEAVY RAIN...HAVE PLACED THIS                     
WORDING IN THE FCST. OUR AREA CONTINUES TO BE UNDER A MODERATE TO               
SEVERE DROUGHT...SO WILL NOT BE ISSUING ANY HEADLINES IN TERMS OF               
FLASH FLOOD/FLOOD WATCHES ATTM. HOWEVER...IF WIDESPREAD PCPN                    
MATERIALIZES ON MONDAY...THIS MAY HAVE TO BE RECONSIDERED FOR                   
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS 1 AND 3 HOUR FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE                  
VALUES POTENTIALLY DECREASE FROM HEAVY RAIN ON MONDAY.                          
TEMPERATURES WILL BE QUITE DIFFICULT GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF CLOUDS                 
AND PCPN. MAV MOS GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO BE MUCH COOLER THAN THE                 
MET MOS. HAVE LEANED MORE TOWARD THE COOLER MAV MOS. AGAIN...SHORT              
TERM TEMPERATURE ADJUSTMENTS WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED THROUGH THE                  
PERIOD...PARTICULARLY FOR THE DAYLIGHT HOURS.                                   
AS A FINAL NOTE...SPC HAS THE SWRN PART OF OUR FCST AREA IN A                   
SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS ON MONDAY. THIS WILL BE HIGHLY                    
DEPENDENT ON HOW UNSTABLE THE ATMOSPHERE CAN GET AMIDST CLOUD                   
COVER.                                                                          
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...                                  
MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHERN UNITED STATES WILL SLOWLY               
BUILD NORTHWARD THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. THIS WILL TEND                
TO KEEP OUR FA ON THE SOUTHERN FRINGE OF THE MORE ACTIVE WESTERLY               
FLOW AFFECTING THE GREAT LAKES. AS A RESULT...WILL GENERALLY KEEP               
POPS IN THE 20 PERCENT RANGE THROUGH FRIDAY...WITH THE BEST CHANCE              
ACROSS OUR NORTHERN FA. MODELS INDICATING THAT THE RIDGE WILL                   
BEGIN TO BREAK DOWN TOWARD NEXT WEEKEND...BRINGING A BETTER CHANCE              
OF PCPN BY SATURDAY.                                                            
AS HIGH BUILDS SLOWLY NORTH ACROSS OUR AREA...WE SHOULD ALSO SEE A              
GRADUAL WARM UP IN TEMPERATURES THROUGH FRIDAY. 06Z AND 12Z                     
OPERATIONAL GFS ARE STRONGER WITH THE RIDGE AND THUS WARMER THAN THE            
00Z GFS ENSEMBLE WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. WILL THEREFORE TREND                 
TEMPS A TAD COOLER THAN MOS THROUGH FRIDAY.                                     
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...                                      
LARGE AREA OF -SHRA/TSRA NORTH OF A WARM FRNTL BNDRY EXTNDG FROM                
UPR MISSISSIPPI VLY SE INTO CNTRL/LOWER GRT LKS. WITH WELL DEFINED              
850 LLJ BACK ACRS IOWA/MINNESOTA HELPING TO INITIATE NEW                        
CONVECTIVE DVLPMNT IN THESE AREAS...CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO                 
PROPAGATE SE ALONG WARM FRONT INTO LWR MICHIGAN/NRN INDIANA AND NW              
OHIO THRU DAYBREAK. ALTHOUGH LO LVL WAA DVLPG JUST WEST OF FCST                 
AREA...MODEL SOUNDINGS STILL SHWNG GOOD DEAL OF SUBSIDENCE THRU                 
BNDRY LYR. HAVE SEEN ISOLD -SHRA/TSRA DVLP OVER LAST HOUR OR SO IN              
A ZONE ORIENTED SW-NE FROM CNTRL ILLINOIS INVOF MID LVL VORT NE                 
INTO NW OHIO. NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT AN ISOLD -SHRA OR                    
SPRINKLE AFFECTS KDAY/KCMH/KLCK THRU DAYBREAK...BUT COVERAGE                    
REMAINS LOW ENUF TO KEEP MENTION OUT OF TAFS FOR TIME BEING. AT                 
VERY LEAST...EXPECT FAIRLY DENSE AC DECK TO PERSIST WELL INTO THE               
MRNG ACRS NRN 1/2 FCST AREA.                                                    
MAIN AREA OF PCPN SHOULD REMAIN FOCUSED NORTH OF THE TERMINALS ACRS             
NRN OHIO IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE FRNTL BNDRY ALL DAY SUNDAY.                 
MODEL SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SHOW DRIER AIR WITHIN THE BNDRY LYR                 
HANGING INTO THE AFTN HOURS. WHILE THERE WILL BE SOME                           
SUNSHINE...ESPECIALLY AT KCVG AND KLUK...EXPECT MSTLY CLDY SKIES                
FOR MUCH OF THE DAY WITH PREDOMINANT AC DECK BTWN 10-15KFT. AS                  
DEEPER MOISTURE BEINGS TO SLOWLY ADVECT INTO THE REGION FROM THE                
SOUTHWEST DURING THE AFTN/EVNG HOURS EXPECT WDLY SCT -SHRA/TSRA                 
WILL DVLP. PCPN WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE AFT 00Z...PARTICULARLY                
NORTH OF I-70. HAVE BROUGHT SOME SCT SC/CU INTO THE TERMINALS                   
DURING THE EVNG HOURS...BUT WILL KEEP ANY PCPN MENTION OUT OF THE               
NRN TERMINALS (KDAY/KCMH/KLCK) AS MAJORITY OF THE PCPN SHOULD                   
REMAIN FOCUSED NORTH OF THESE AREAS. PCPN CHANCES WILL INCREASE                 
BEYOND 06Z MON MRNG AND THRU THE DAY MON AS FRNTL BNDRY SAGS INTO               
FCST AREA.                                                                      
OUTLOOK...TSTMS POSSIBLE MONDAY AND TUESDAY.                                    
&&                                                                              
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
OH...NONE.                                                                      
KY...NONE.                                                                      
IN...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SYNOPSIS...HICKMAN                                                              
NEAR TERM...HICKMAN                                                             
SHORT TERM...HICKMAN                                                            
LONG TERM...LOTT                                                                
AVIATION...RYAN                                                                 
</pre> oh                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA                                             
330 AM PDT SUN AUG 19 2007                                                      
.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SWING THROUGH THE AREA TODAY             
WITH SHOWERS PERSISTING THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS THEN DIMINISHING              
AFTER MIDNIGHT. ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED ON MONDAY AS              
ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM PASSES THROUGH THE STATE. DRY WEATHER                
WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FROM TUESDAY ON THROUGH THE               
WEEKEND AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE DEVELOPS OVER THE PACIFIC AND                   
WESTERN U.S.                                                                    
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS THIS MORNING                 
SHOWS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS JUST OFF THE WA/OR COAST WITH                 
WESTERN WASHINGTON UNDER THE DIFFLUENT ZONE. RADAR SHOWING LIGHT BUT            
STEADY PRECIP ACROSS THE AREA WITH MOST LOCALES REPORTING A FEW                 
HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH PER HOUR. LIGHT RAIN WILL SWITCH OVER TO                  
SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON AS THE TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE AREA. MODELS            
SHOW THE AXIS SHIFTING EAST AND RIGHT OVER THE CASCADES BY 18Z. MM5             
GFS ALSO HINTING AT WEAK CONVERGENCE AROUND NORTHERN KING AND                   
SNOHOMISH COUNTIES. THIS SYSTEM HAS HAD A HISTORY OF PRODUCING A FEW            
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THE COLD CORE...BUT MODEL SOUNDINGS                 
APPEAR TOO STABLE FOR ANY ACTIVITY TODAY. TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE            
FAIRLY MILD WITH ONLY MID TO UPPER 60S EXPECTED. A MODEST 66 AT                 
SEATAC IS 10 DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.                       
THE TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO E WA AND IDAHO THIS EVENING WITH SHOWERS              
TAPERING OFF AND LIMITED TO MOSTLY THE CASCADES. SHOWERS WILL                   
RETURN THE THE COAST EARLY MONDAY WITH PRECIP SPREADING INLAND                  
THROUGH THE MORNING AND AFTERNOON AS ANOTHER POTENT AND FAST MOVING             
SHORTWAVE TROUGH PASSES THROUGH. BY TUESDAY...WEAK UPPER LEVEL                  
RIDGING AND NW FLOW ALOFT WILL RESULT IN DRIER AND SLIGHTLY WARMER              
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA.                                                   
.LONG TERM...IT LOOKS LIKE THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK WILL BE               
DRY AS THE BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE CENTRAL                    
PACIFIC...WITH HEIGHTS RISING ACROSS THE PACNW. TEMPERATURES WILL               
SLOWLY WARM EACH DAY WITH POSSIBLE 80S RETURNING TO THE INTERIOR BY             
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS H5 582 HEIGHTS REACH UP INTO THE AREA. A                 
PLEASANT RETURN TO SUMMER INDEED. FOR THE WEEKEND...MODELS TRYING TO            
BRING CLOSED LOW DOWN FROM GULF OF AK WITH A FRONT SLIDING DOWN THE             
BC COAST TOWARD WA. TOO FAR OUT TO EVEN WORRY ABOUT IT YET SO NO BIG            
CHANGES MADE. 33                                                                
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...MOISTURE CONTINUES TO STREAM IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST AS               
UPPER TROF APPROACHES COAST. EXPECT CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE TO                   
DETERIORATE THRU 15Z AS PRECIP CONTINUES TO FALL INTO MOIST BOUNDARY            
LAYER. ONCE TROF AXIS PASSES INLAND IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS FLOW WILL             
VEER AROUND TO BECOME MORE WESTERLY. MESO MODELS INDICATE THIS WILL             
GENERATE A PERIOD OF CONVERGENCE WITH CONTINUED LOW CONDITIONS NORTH            
SOUND BUT WITH IMPROVING CONDITIONS ELSEWHERE. GENERALLY MVFR...BUT             
WITH SOME LOCAL IFR...WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST 15Z. KSEA WINDS            
WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND SLY. COLMAN                                               
&&                                                                              
.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                        
$$                                                                              
WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE                                                             
</pre> wa                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC                             
1123 AM EDT SUN AUG 19 2007                                                     
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE OFF THE COAST TODAY. A WARM                 
FRONT WILL DEVELOP OVER THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND STALL ACROSS                
NORTHERN VIRGINIA THROUGH TUESDAY. A SERIES OF LOW PRESSURE                     
SYSTEMS WILL SLIDE EAST ALONG THE FRONT KEEPING THE AREA UNSETTLED              
THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK. A WARMER AND MORE HUMID AIRMASS WILL                  
RETURN FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.                                                 
&&                                                                              
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL NOON TODAY/...                                                
STATIONARY FRONT BISECTING CWA LATE THIS MORNING WITH CLOUDY SKIES AND          
LIGHT SHRAS TO THE NORTH AND SUNNY SKIES TO THE SOUTH. GFS/RUC                  
MODELS SHOW WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT CONTINUING THRU THE AFTERNOON.                 
NOT MUCH MOVEMENT TO THE FRONT EXPECTED IN THE NEXT 18 HRS. MAYBE               
AN ISOLD TSRA IN THE SW AS INSTABILITY BUILDS BUT NOT MUCH IN THE               
WAY OF FORCING                                                                  
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM /NOON TODAY THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...                                 
OVERRUNNING PRECIP...NORTH OF BOUNDARY...WILL MOVE ACROSS                       
NORTHERN ZONES TONIGHT. TRENDED FROM HIGH LIKELY TO LOW CHC POPS                
NORTH TO SOUTH. A SFC LOW APPEARS TO SLIDE EAST ALONG THE BOUNDARY              
MONDAY AFTN. I WILL ASSUME THE BOUNDARY WILL BE STATIONED ACROSS                
SOUTHERN ZONES. AS A RESULT CONTINUED THE WET WX BUT WILL ALSO                  
KEEP A MENTION OF THUNDER GIVEN ADDITIONAL FORCING FROM SFC LOW.                
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...                                   
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY                                                  
A WAVY FRONT WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC THROUGH TUESDAY                
NIGHT. SEVERAL WEAK WAVES APPEAR TO TRACK ALONG THE FRONT...BRINGING            
THE BEST RAINFALL CHANCES THE REGION HAS SEEN FOR QUITE SOME TIME.              
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES RISE TO NEAR 2 INCHES...WELL ABOVE THE                
NORMAL OF 1.1 INCHES. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL COME WITH                      
HARD-TO-TIME WEAK WAVES MOVING ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. GUIDANCE             
STILL SHOWS THAT THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA HAS THE BEST            
CHANCE OF SEEING NOTICEABLE PRECIPITATION WHILE THE SOUTHERN HALF OF            
THE FORECAST AREA COULD BE LEFT HIGH AND DRY. OVERALL...INCOMING                
CLOUD COVER ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT WILL SPREAD NORTH AND SOUTH               
RATHER FAR...AND THIS SHOULD HELP TO KEEP TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW               
NORMAL.                                                                         
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...                                                    
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ONCE THE FRONT HAS EXITED THE                          
REGION...BRINGING A RETURN TO A MORE TYPICAL WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS.            
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION /15Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...                                      
VFR CONDITIONS THRU 00Z MON. SHOULD SEE CEILINGS GRADUALLY LOWER                
DURING THE DAY. EXPECT MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES DUE TO CLOUDS             
AND LIGHT PRECIP STARTING THIS EVENING. TSTMS POSSIBLE MON.                     
THE NEARLY STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL LINGER THROUGH LATE                 
TUESDAY INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY...MAINTAINING CHANCES OF MVFR AND EVEN             
TEMPORARY IFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES WITH SHOWERS AND                        
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THROUGHOUT. HIGHEST CHANCES FOR PROLONGER                
MVFR OR IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE FOR THE WASHINGTON...BALTIMORE...AND             
MARTINSBURG TERMINALS.                                                          
&&                                                                              
.MARINE...                                                                      
WARM FRONT DEVELOPING ACROSS THE NORTHERN BAY TODAY. SOUTH OF THE               
FRONT...SOUTHERLY CHANNELING WINDS INCREASE TO A LOW END SCA SO                 
HAVE ISSUED SCA FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING FOR THE LOWER BAY.               
WRF-ARW INDICATES A BNDRY ACROSS THE NORTHERN BAY WHICH DRIFTS                  
SOUTH THIS EVENING.                                                             
LIGHT...10 KNOTS OR LESS...AND VARIABLE WIND DIRECTIONS EXPECTED                
OVER THE WATERS WITH A NEARLY STATIONARY...WAVY FRONTAL BOUNDARY                
OVER THE REGION. CONSISTENT CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS                
REMAIN THROUGH TUESDAY WITH THE BOUNDARY.                                       
&&                                                                              
.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
DC...NONE.                                                                      
MD...NONE.                                                                      
VA...NONE.                                                                      
WV...NONE.                                                                      
MARINE...NONE.                                                                  
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
UPDATE...ROSA                                                                   
LONG TERM...SAR                                                                 
</pre> md                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA                                           
1101 AM EDT SUN AUG 19 2007                                                     
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OFF THE COAST TODAY...AS A WARM FRONT                 
MOVES BACK NORTH INTO THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. THE FRONT WILL                   
STALL OVER THE NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC REGION MONDAY AND TUESDAY.                 
THIS WILL PROVIDE ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND                      
THUNDERSTORMS. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN TAKE CONTROL THROUGH                
THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.                                                      
&&                                                                              
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...                                         
LATEST SATL SHOWING ZONE OF ISENTROPIC LIFT/LOW CLOUD BANK ACRS                 
THE PIEDMNT. RUC DEPICTS THIS WELL IN 300-305K LEVEL...AND TRACKS               
THIS FARTHER TO THE NE BY MID AFTN. IN ADDITION...CAN SEE CU                    
POPPING ACRS CSTL CAROLINAS. HAVE ADDED 30% POP TO THE FCST FOR MD              
ZONES...AND 20% MUCH OF INTERIOR AREAS. MAY STAY CLDY ALL DAY FAR               
NORTHEAST. FOR TEMP FCST TRENDED HIGHS DOWN ANOTHER DEGREE OR TWO               
ACRS NRN ZONES WHERE MORE CLOUDS WILL STAY ARND ALL DAY.                        
BEST RAIN CHANCE EASILY COMES TNGT. ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE DEPICTED                 
BY BOTH MODELS ALONG AND NORTH OF FRONT...RESULTING IN HIGH CHC TO              
LKLY POPS OVER NORTHERN TIER OF CWA (LKU TO WAL AND NORTH)...WITH               
SILENT POPS OVER SOUTHERN THIRD OF CWA. RAIN DOES APPEAR AS IF IT               
WL BE A (VERY MUCH WELCOME) LGT AND STRATIFORM RAINFALL...SO CHOSE              
TO STICK WITH SHRA VICE TSRA. USED A MAV/FWC BLEND FOR LOWS THIS                
EVENING...RESULTING IN LOWS IN THE U60S/ARND 70.                                
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...                         
DETERMINING FRONTAL POSITION HAS PROVED TO BE THE BIGGEST FORECAST              
CHALLENGE THROUGH MONDAY EVENING. MODELS SEEM TO POINT TWDS FRONT               
REMAINING NEARLY STATIONARY/WAVERING SLIGHTLY THROUGH MON                       
NGT...WITH INCREASINGLY MOIST AIR MASS CARRING OVER TO BEGIN THE                
WORK WEEK. GENERAL TREND OF INCREASING CLDS MONDAY HAS BEEN KEPT                
IN TACT. GIVEN THIS THICKER CLOUD COVER...ESPECIALLY OVER THE                   
NORTH...TEMPERED MOS VALUES SLIGHTLY FOR MAX T MONDAY. THIS                     
YIELDED QUITE A THERMAL GRADIENT. U80S/NR 90 OVER THE NW...WITH                 
L/M90S ELSEWHERE INLAND. MEANWHILE...TEMPS ONLY IN UPPER 70S/L80S               
IN MD.                                                                          
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...                                        
LATEST RUNS OF GFS/ECMWF CONTINUE TO SHOW THE PERSISTENT MID LEVEL              
RIDGE ACRS GULF COAST STATES...WHICH WILL KEEP HURRICANE DEAN WELL              
TO OUR SOUTH (SEE LATEST OFFICIAL FCST FROM NHC/TPC FOR DETAILS).               
TUE AND WED...MID ATLC REMAINS IN BETWEEN SFC HIGH PRESSURE ACRS NEW            
ENGLAND...AND WEAK HIGH PRESSURE ACRS SC/GA. GFS/ECMWF MEAN                     
POSITION OF SFC TROUGH/STATIONARY FRONT IS ACRS NRN PORTION OF THE              
CWA BOTH DAYS. HAVE CHC POPS NORTH...SCHC SOUTH BOTH DAYS. TEMPS                
AGAIN MUCH COOLER ACRS NE ZONES.                                                
FRONT LOOKS TO LIFT FARTHER NORTH LATE WED...AND FOR PERIOD THU THROUGH         
SAT HAVE GONE WITH JUST 20% DIURNAL TSTMS (OR LESS) AND HIGHER                  
TEMPS MAINLY BACK INTO THE 90S CWA WIDE.                                        
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION /15Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...                                      
SC CLOUD DECK AND ASSCTD -RA MOVG SE FROM DC AREA THIS AM...ALTHOUGH            
ECHOES HAVE BEEN WEAKENING. DESPITE THIS...DECIDED TO ADD A 2 HR                
TEMPO PRD FOR -RA THIS AM AT SBY. GAVE RIC MORE CLOUDS NXT FEW HRS              
AS WELL. MODELS CONT THE WETTER TREND AT SBY TONITE...SO TRENDED                
THE SBY TAF MORE PESSIMISTIC WRT CLOUD COVER/VSBY IN -RA AT SBY                 
(MVFR RANGE). RIC MAY SEE BKN SC DECK...BUT LTL IN WAY OF PCPN.                 
&&                                                                              
.MARINE...                                                                      
WNDS SLOWLY INCRG PAST HR OR SO. WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED FOR PSBL               
SCA ACROSS CURRITUCK SND THIS AFTRN. OTW...VRY CHALLENGING FCST                 
THIS AM AS INCRG WNDS AND SEAS WILL RESULT IN SCA CONDITIONS AS                 
VARIOUS TIMES ACROSS MARINE AREA FOR THE NXT SVRL DAYS. ALL MODELS              
NOW INCRS S-SE FLOW (BTWN 15-20 KTS) OVR CHES BAY THIS AFTRN.                   
SO..IN COORD WITH LWX...HAVE HOISTED SCA`S FOR CHES BAY THRU ERLY               
EVE. GRDNT SLOWER TO INCRS ACROSS CURRITUCK SND... SO HELD BACK ON              
SCA THERE UNTIL AFTR MIDNITE...BUT CONT IT THRU MOST OF MON.                    
BUFKIT SHOWNG GUST PTNTL UP TO 25 KTS ACROSS NRN CSTL WTRS AFTR                 
MIDNITE TONITE AS WELL AS INCRG SEAS TO 5 FT. SO...IN COORD WITH                
PHL...HAVE HOISTED SCA FOR MD CSTL WTRS LATE TONITE THRU MON.                   
ENDED FLAGS MON AFTRN AS FIRST EVENT ENDS. NXT EVENT WILL BE NRLY               
SURGE BEHIND FRNT LATE MON AFTRN. WILL NOT HEADLINE FOR THIS EVENT              
ATTM (AS IT WILL PRBLY LEAD TO SOME CONFUSION AS TO JUST WHEN                   
SCA`S END AND BEGIN). WILL LET LATER SHIFTS DECIDE THIS. SUFFICE                
IT TO SAY THAT ANTHR 4-6 HR NRLY SURGE XPCTD DOWN CHES BAY LATER                
MON...BUT CONFIDENCE RTHR LOW ATTM AS TO THE EXACT HRS THIS                     
OCCURS.                                                                         
&&                                                                              
.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
MD...NONE.                                                                      
NC...NONE.                                                                      
VA...NONE.                                                                      
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 6 PM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ650.          
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 PM EDT THIS             
     EVENING FOR ANZ630>632.                                                    
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6 PM EDT MONDAY              
     FOR ANZ633.                                                                
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SYNOPSIS...BROWN                                                                
NEAR TERM...BROWN                                                               
SHORT TERM...MAM                                                                
LONG TERM...BROWN/MAM                                                           
AVIATION...MPR                                                                  
MARINE...MPR/KCS                                                                
</pre> md                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC                                          
1220 PM EDT SUN AUG 19 2007                                                     
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
A WEAK FRONT ACROSS SOUTH CAROLINA WILL DISSIPATE THIS MORNING. HIGH            
PRESSURE OFFSHORE WILL EXTEND WESTWARD ACROSS THE CAROLINAS THROUGH             
TUESDAY. WARM...HAZY AND HUMID CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED MUCH OF THE              
WEEK. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL ATTEMPT TO MOVE SOUTH FROM VIRGINIA                
INTO THE CAROLINAS BY THURSDAY...POSSIBLY PROVIDING TEMPORARY RELIEF.           
&&                                                                              
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...                                                   
EXTENSIVE CUMULUS FIELD NOW COVERING ALL MOST OF THE CWA WITH THE               
EXCEPTION OF THE FAR SOUTHERN COUNTIES. LATEST RUC AND GFS FOR THAT             
MATTER SHOW A LITTLE SEA BREEZE ACTIVITY THIS AFTERNOON. LATEST                 
RADAR LOOPS DO SHOW A FEW RETURNS TRYING TO DEVELOP BUT VERY DRY MID            
LEVELS EVIDENT ON MORNING SOUNDINGS AND WATER VAPOR IMAGERY ARE                 
INHIBITING ACTIVITY. OTHER THAN A TWEAK TO CLOUD COVER GRIDS...NO               
OTHER CHANGES.                                                                  
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...                                
VERTICALLY STACKED HIGH PRESSURE FROM 700 MB UP THROUGH AT LEAST 200            
MB WILL SIT OVER SOUTH CAROLINA THROUGH TUESDAY. THE HIGH WILL                  
THEN SLOWLY RETROGRADE WEST WEDNESDAY. LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE AND               
SUBSEQUENT WARM DRY AIR ALOFT WILL ALSO KEEP CLOUDS AND                         
PRECIPITATION AT A MINIMUM TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. BELOW 850                   
MB...HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED OFFSHORE AND WILL KEEP A VERY                    
CLIMATOLOGICAL SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE CAROLINAS.                   
AFTERNOON SEABREEZES WILL TRANSFER MOMENTUM INTO LOW LEVEL JETS                 
EACH OF THE NEXT SEVERAL NIGHTS. THE ONLY EFFECT FROM THESE 20-30               
KT LOW LEVEL JETS WILL BE WARM NIGHTS WITH 5-10 MPH SURFACE WINDS.              
BY WEDNESDAY...THE RETROGRESSION OF THE UPPER RIDGE WILL OPEN UP                
THE EASTERN CAROLINAS TO THE POSSIBILITY OF SLIGHT COOLING OF THE               
MID LEVELS WITH ANY UPPER LEVEL ENERGY ABLE TO DIVE SOUTH AROUND                
THE PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE. WILL ONLY INTRODUCE 20 POPS AT THIS                 
TIME ACROSS SOUTHEAST NC. THERE ARE SOME SUBTLE BUT SIGNIFICANT                 
DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE GFS AND NAM MODELS DEVELOPING LATE TUESDAY              
INTO WEDNESDAY. THE GFS IS MORE BULLISH PUSHING A RATHER STRONG                 
VORT ACROSS NORTHERN NC WHICH DRIVES A SURFACE COLD FRONT INTO THE              
STATE. THE NAM IS MUCH WEAKER WITH THE VORT AND FARTHER NORTH WITH              
THE FRONT. AFTER COLLABORATION WITH WFO MHX...WE WILL FOLLOW THE                
NAM SOLUTION WHICH KEEPS THE FRONT TO THE NORTH.                                
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...                                       
595 DAM H5 RIDGE CENTERED NEAR SAV TO START THE PD. THIS FEATURE                
WILL SLOWLY RETROGRADE THROUGH THURSDAY AND THEN EXPAND SLIGHTLY                
BACK TO THE EAST WHILE REMAINING CENTERED OVER AL BY FRIDAY. THIS               
WILL MEAN A CONTINUATION OF ABV CLIMO TEMPS FOR MOST OF THE TIME.               
OPERATIONAL GFS BUILDS THE RIDGE MORE SHARPLY THAN MOST ENSEMBLE                
RUNS SO MEX STRINGS HAVE BEEN SLIGHTLY UNDERCUT.                                
PRECIP CHANCES WILL BE MOST AFFECTED BY LOW LEVEL FEATURES GIVEN THE            
FAIRLY MINIMAL CHANGES IN THE UPPER PATTERN. PIEDMONT TROUGHINESS               
DEVELOPING SLOWLY ON WEDNESDAY WILL ACT TO IMPORT SOME LL AND MIDLVL            
MOISTURE BUT NOT ENOUGH TO WARRANT POPS EXCEPT FOR AT NIGHT. SLGT               
CHANCE POPS THEN SEEM TO BE PLAUSIBLE FOR THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK             
AS PW VALUES ARE AT OR SLIGHTLY ABV CLIMO BUT FORCING REMAINS QUITE             
WEAK.                                                                           
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...                                      
SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL PREVAIL LATER TODAY...WITH VAD WIND PROFILE AND             
SKEW-T SHOWING MAINLY SOUTHEAST TO EAST FLOW AT MOST LEVELS BELOW               
500 MPH. SOME ISOLATED SEA BREEZE ACTIVITY POSSIBLE AFTER 18Z...BUT             
NO TEMPO OR MENTION AT THIS TIME. MVFR OR POSSIBLE IFR FOG/STRATUS              
AGAIN TOWARD THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.                                    
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ON TUESDAY...SCATTERED WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.           
&&                                                                              
.MARINE...                                                                      
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...                                                    
BUOY OBS SHOW ESE WINDS STILL A SOLID 15 KT...AS KLTX VWP INDICATES             
JETTING AROUND 20 KT AT 1000 FEET.  SEAS RUNNING AROUND 3 FT...WITH             
A 17 SEC ESE SWELL STARTING TO SHOW UP.                                         
NOCTURNAL JETTING WILL WEAKEN AFTER DAYBREAK...ALLOWING WINDS TO                
VEER TO SE AS THE PATTERN BECOMES MORE SEABREEZE-DOMINATED.  WILL               
KEEP CONDITIONS BELOW THRESHOLDS...CAPPING SPEEDS AT 15 KT AND SEAS             
AT 4 FT.                                                                        
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...                                 
HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE WILL MAINTAIN A VERY CLIMATOLOGICAL SOUTH                
TO SOUTHWESTERLY WIND DIRECTION THROUGH THE PERIOD. WIND SPEEDS                 
WILL INCREASE TO A SOLID 15 KNOTS EACH OF THE NEXT SEVERAL                      
AFTERNOONS AND EVENINGS IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE SEABREEZE.                      
STRONGEST WINDS ARE LIKELY TO BE LOCATED NEAR THE BEACHES BETWEEN               
THE HOURS OF 3 PM AND 9 PM.                                                     
THE BIGGEST WEATHER IMPACT TO MARINERS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS               
IS LIKELY TO BE SWELL FROM HURRICANE DEAN. THE WAVEWATCH MODEL WAS              
NEARLY PERFECT IN SHOWING THE 17-18 SECOND FORERUNNER SWELLS                    
DEVELOPING YESTERDAY EVENING. IT NOW FORECASTS THE SWELL HEIGHT TO              
INCREASE TO 3-4 FT EVERY 10-12 SECONDS BY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.                
THESE LONG PERIOD SWELLS WILL CARRY A LOT OF ENERGY AND WILL MAKE               
BAR AND INLET CONDITIONS QUITE ROUGH...PARTICULARLY AROUND LOW                  
TIDE. SURFERS WILL ENJOY THE NICE SURF EXPECTED TUESDAY AND                     
WEDNESDAY MORNINGS BEFORE THE SEABREEZE ADDS A WIND CHOP TO THE                 
OCEAN.                                                                          
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...                                          
PRESSURE PATTERN QUITE TYPICAL OF AUGUST WITH HIGHEST VALUES IN THE             
WRN ATLANTIC AND A SWRLY FLOW LOCALLY. SERLY DEAN SWELL IS PROGGED              
TO BE ALL BUT GONE JUST BY THE START OF THE PD. GUIDANCE SHOWS A                
SECONDARY SWELL FRONT ARRIVE FROM THE EAST ON THURSDAY BUT THE GFS              
SEEMS TOO STRONG AND TOO FAR N WITH THE SFC WAVE/LOW AT THIS POINT.             
REGARDLESS...MOST OF THE PD WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY SWRLY FLOW                 
CAPPED AT 15 KT AND SEAS 2 TO 4 FT.                                             
&&                                                                              
.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
SC...NONE.                                                                      
NC...NONE.                                                                      
MARINE...NONE.                                                                  
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SYNOPSIS...TRA                                                                  
NEAR TERM...SHK                                                                 
SHORT TERM...TRA                                                                
LONG TERM...BACON                                                               
AVIATION...HDL                                                                  
</pre> nc                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN                                             
938 AM CDT SUN AUG 19 2007                                                      
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
QUIET MORNING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND              
TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN THE 80S. REMNANTS OF TROPICAL STORM ERIN                 
SEEM TO BE MOVING MORE DUE EAST AT THE MOMENT. LATEST RUC MODEL                 
CONTINUES SHOWING THE REMNANTS MOVING NORTHEAST. WILL KEEP AN EYE               
ON THE MOVEMENT AND MAY UPDATE POPS LATER IF CONDITIONS WARRANT.                
WILL SEND AN UPDATE TO REMOVE MORNING WORDING BUT AT THIS POINT NO              
OTHER CHANGES ARE NEEDED.                                                       
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 305 AM CDT SUN AUG 19 2007/                         
DISCUSSION...                                                                   
SKIES WERE MOSTLY CLEAR THIS MORNING WITH SOME STATIONS REPORTING               
SOME LIGHT FOG/HAZE...MAINLY WHERE IT RAINED YESTERDAY.                         
TEMPERATURES RANGED FROM THE LOWER 70S TO NEAR 80S DEGREES AND DEW              
POINTS RANGED FROM THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S.                                    
VERY LITTLE CHANGE EXPECTED TODAY...WITH DEADLY HEAT STILL THE                  
MAIN FOCUS. MAX TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL REACH NEAR 100 DEGREES                  
WITH HEAT INDICES AROUND 105 OR GREATER. PERHAPS WHERE IT                       
RAINED...TEMPS MAY BE HARD PRESSED TO REACH 100 BUT HUMIDITY                    
LEVELS WILL COUNTERACT THAT AND MAKE IT FEEL MUCH WARMER THAN THE               
AMBIENT TEMPERATURE.                                                            
EXPECT A FEW THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON NEAR PEAK HEATING.              
SOME OF THESE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WIND                 
GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 50 MPH AND SMALL HAIL.                                       
THE LARGE COMPLEX OF THUNDERSTORMS THAT EXPLODED OVER WEST/CENTRAL              
OKLAHOMA YESTERDAY EVENING WILL TRANSLATE ALONG THE W/NW FRINGE                 
OF THE UPPER HIGH AND CLIP A SMALL PORTION OF THE NORTHWEST                     
FORECAST AREA MONDAY. THUS THE ASSOCIATED CLOUD COVER WILL                      
INHIBIT DAYTIME TEMPERATURES FROM MAKING IT INTO THE TRIPLE                     
DIGITS. GUIDANCE NUMBERS ARE MUCH COOLER FOR MONDAY...AND BASED ON              
PERSISTENCE HAVE OPTED TO FORECAST ABOUT FOUR DEGREES WARMER THAN               
GUIDANCE. THIS HINGES ON A COUPLE OF GIVENS...SUCH AS NO                        
RAINFALL AND MINIMAL CLOUD COVER. SOMETHING TO MONITOR FOR THE                  
NEXT FORECAST. SOME AREAS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WILL REACH HEAT              
ADVISORY CRITERIA ON MONDAY.                                                    
ANTICIPATE THE UPPER HIGH TO BUILD WEST OVER THE MID SOUTH TUESDAY              
BRINGING TRIPLE DIGIT TEMPERATURES BACK INTO THE FORECAST AND A                 
HEAT ADVISORY TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. THE UPPER HIGH BREAKS                   
DOWN AND WEAKENS A LITTLE BY NEXT WEEKEND WHICH SHOULD DROP                     
TEMPERATURES INTO THE MID 90S.                                                  
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
MEM 100  77  97  77 /  20  20  20  20                                           
MKL  99  73  98  72 /  20  20  20  20                                           
JBR  98  74  94  73 /  20  20  20  20                                           
TUP  98  74  97  72 /  10  20  20  20                                           
&&                                                                              
.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
AR...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR CLAY-CRAIGHEAD-              
     CRITTENDEN-CROSS-GREENE-LAWRENCE-LEE AR-MISSISSIPPI-                       
     PHILLIPS-POINSETT-RANDOLPH-ST. FRANCIS.                                    
MO...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR DUNKLIN-PEMISCOT.            
MS...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR ALCORN-BENTON MS-            
     CALHOUN-CHICKASAW-COAHOMA-DESOTO-ITAWAMBA-LAFAYETTE-LEE MS-                
     MARSHALL-MONROE-PANOLA-PONTOTOC-PRENTISS-QUITMAN-                          
     TALLAHATCHIE-TATE-TIPPAH-TISHOMINGO-TUNICA-UNION-YALOBUSHA.                
TN...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR CHESTER-CROCKETT-            
     DECATUR-DYER-FAYETTE-HARDEMAN-HARDIN-HAYWOOD-HENDERSON-                    
     LAUDERDALE-MADISON-MCNAIRY-SHELBY-TIPTON.                                  
     HEAT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING            
     FOR CARROLL-GIBSON-HENRY-LAKE-OBION-WEAKLEY.                               
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</pre> tn                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL                                        
215 PM EDT SUN AUG 19 2007                                                      
.SHORT TERM...MSAS ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE HAS SETTLED IN OFF              
THE CAROLINA COAST PROVIDING AN EASTERLY FLOW REGIME FOR THE AREA.              
OVER THE SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA...THERE ARE SUBTLE              
INDICATIONS OF A COASTAL TROUGH WHICH HAS RESULTED IN MOSTLY                    
SPRINKLES WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER COASTAL WATERS. FOR THE                    
REMAINDER OF THIS AFTERNOON...THE MOST SIGNIFICANT OF THE                       
SHORTWAVE ENERGY HAS LIFTED NORTH OF THE AREA AND RUC DIFFERENTIAL              
PVA ANALYSIS SHOWS A LARGE ARE OF SUBSIDENCE OVER THE ENTIRE                    
FORECAST AREA. IN ADDITION...DRIER AIR NOTED ON THE WATER VAPOR                 
STREAMING IN OFF THE ATLANTIC SHOULD HELP CURB CONVECTIVE                       
DEVELOPMENT AND CURRENT 20 POPS LOOK SUFFICIENT.                                
FOR MONDAY...500 MB HIGH STRENGTHENS FURTHER TO 596 DAM AND                     
SETTLES DIRECTLY OVER NORTHEAST FLORIDA. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO                  
KEEP POPS AT A MINIMUM WITH THE OCCASIONAL EARLY MORNING SOUTHERN               
COASTAL SHOWER ALWAYS A POSSIBILITY. THE REAL STORY WILL BE THE                 
CONTINUED HOT TEMPS WITH MID 90S IN STORE FOR INLAND LOCATIONS.                 
ALTHOUGH DEWPOINTS LOOK A LITTLE LOWER THAN PREVIOUS EVENT...WILL               
NEED TO MONITOR CLOSELY FOR POSSIBLE HEAT ADVISORIES THROUGHOUT THE             
WEEK.                                                                           
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...AS DEAN PASSES WELL TO THE SOUTH OF                     
FLORIDA...STACKED HIGH CONFIGURATION WILL BE A MAINSTAY OVER OUR                
AREA WITH NIL TO SLIGHT CHANCE POPS EACH DAY.                                   
.LONG TERM...MID AND UPPER LEVEL HIGH RETROGRADES WEST BY THE END               
OF THE WEEK AND SURFACE HIGH BREAKS DOWN WITH A TROUGH DIPPING                  
DOWN FROM THE MID-ATLANTIC. ALL THIS POINTS TO SOME SLIGHT RELIEF               
FROM THE EXTREME HEAT AND POPS INCREASING...ESPECIALLY OVER THE                 
NORTHERN SECTIONS. THERE ARE A COUPLE OF WEAK WAVES INDICATED BY                
THE GFS FOR THE WEEKEND WITH THE FIRST LOOKING TO IMPACT SOUTH                  
FLORIDA EARLY SATURDAY AND GRADUALLY EXTEND NORTHWARD THROUGH                   
SUNDAY. WAY TO FAR OUT TO GET INTO MANY DETAILS AND CURRENT SCT                 
POPS IN THE GRIDS LOOK SUFFICIENT FOR NOW.                                      
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...VIS IMAGERY SHOWS SCT-BKN CU FIELD BUT CLOUDS ARE ABOVE             
3000 FT. TONIGHT...BRIEF MVFR VIS POSSIBLE TOWARD MONDAY MORNING DUE            
TO INCREASED SUBSIDENCE ALOFT AND LIGHT BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS EXCEPT             
FOR SSI WHERE MIXING WILL BE MORE PREVALENT.                                    
&&                                                                              
.MARINE...NO HEADLINES FOR NOW. IT HAS BEEN NOTED FOR THE PAST 12-18            
HRS THAT SEAS HAVE INCREASED A BIT MAINLY DUE TO E TO SE SWELLS                 
INCREASING BY 1-2 FT. HAVE ADJUSTED WNA WAVE GUIDANCE A BIT FOR NEXT            
48 HRS AND STILL LOOKS LIKE A SMALL AREA OF 5-6 FT SEAS POSSIBLE                
OVER THE SE OFFSHORE WATERS FROM LATE MON INTO EARLY TUE.                       
OTHERWISE...WINDS LOOK TO REMAIN AT OR BELOW 15 KT FOR THE PERIOD AT            
THIS TIME AND SEAS AT OR BELOW 5 FT. RIP CURRENT RISK TO REMAIN                 
ELEVATED IN THE MODERATE CATEGORY AT LEAST THROUGH MID WEEK DUE TO              
ONSHORE FLOW AND ESE SWELLS.                                                    
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
AMG  71  96  72  96 /  20  10  10   0                                           
SSI  79  90  78  89 /  10  10  10   0                                           
JAX  74  93  74  93 /  20  10  10  10                                           
SGJ  76  90  76  89 /  20  10  10   0                                           
GNV  72  95  71  94 /  20  20  10  20                                           
OCF  73  94  72  94 /  20  20  10  20                                           
&&                                                                              
.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
FL...NONE.                                                                      
GA...NONE.                                                                      
AM...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
DEESE/SHASHY/WALKER                                                             
</pre> fl                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA                                          
335 PM CDT SUN AUG 19 2007                                                      
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT WOBBLING NORTH ACROSS THE STATE LATE THIS               
AFTERNOON WITH TROPICAL MOISTURE FEED WELL IN PLACE ONCE AGAIN.                 
THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP NORTH OF BOUNDARY ACROSS SOUTHERN             
MN AND ARE HEADING EAST ALONG H850 FRONTAL ZONE. OVER SOUTHERN                  
SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA...CONTINUE TO SEE INFLUX OF OLD ERIN              
MOISTURE WITH AREAS OF THUNDERSTORMS INCREASING. MAINTAINING FLASH              
FLOOD WATCH TONIGHT ACROSS THE NORTH WHERE ADDITIONAL RAINFALL                  
EXPECTED. SOUTHERN PORTIONS CAN TAKE A FEW INCHES WITH LESS IMPACT              
EXPECTED THERE.                                                                 
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT...                                                        
DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE PLUME CONTINUES TO STREAM NORTH INTO THE                 
STATE TNT. THOUGH THE GREATEST LIFT INITIALLY APPEARS TO BE ALONG               
AND NORTH OF THE IA-MN BORDER...RUC MODEL HAS COME AROUND TO SHOW               
INCREASING LIFT WITH STRONGER AND MORE NORTHERLY MOISTURE TRANSPORT             
OVER THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING AND GRADUALLY SHIFTING               
THE GREATER MOISTURE TRANSPORT MORE EAST NORTHEAST BY 03Z LATER THIS            
EVENING. H700 WAVE OVER THE DAKOTAS SHOULD HELP KEEP PATTERN                    
PROGRESSIVE OVER THE NORTH THOUGH SOME STORMS EXPECTED TO FIRE INTO             
THE WARM SECTOR THIS EVENING ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AS IT DRIFTS            
SOUTHEAST WITH TIME. THIS MAY MITIGATE SOME HYDRO ISSUES OVER THE               
NORTH BUT WILL HOLD ONTO FLASH FLOOD WATCH DUE TO FACT THAT LITTLE              
IF ANY ADDITIONAL RAINFALL TNT WILL CAUSE PROBLEMS. OLD ERIN STILL A            
PROBLEM...AS MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND PLUME WILL CROSS THE SOUTHEAST              
THIRD OF FORECAST AREA THROUGH 06Z...WITH SOME HEAVY RAINFALL                   
POSSIBLE THERE. GFS/NAM MUCH FARTHER EAST WITH TRACK THIS                       
EVENING...AND AM FOLLOWING RUC MORE CLOSELY. FFG RUNNING HIGHER                 
SOUTHEAST COUNTIES WITH VALUES GENERALLY IN THE 2.5 TO 3.5 RAINFALL             
SO WILL NOT EXTEND WATCH ANY FARTHER SOUTH ATTM THOUGH SOME TOTALS              
MAY COME IN ABOVE TWO INCHES IN SOME CASES. H700 WAVE NORTH WILL                
LIFT EAST AFTER 06Z AND RAINFALL SHOULD DIMINISH AT THAT TIME.                  
ACROSS THE SOUTH EXPECT THE RAIN TO DIMINISH BETWEEN THE 04 AND 08Z             
TIMEFRAME AS OLD ERIN SPINS EAST BY MORNING. FOLLOWING THAT...FOG               
MAY BECOME AN ISSUE IN THE WAKE OF THE THESE SYSTEMS AS WINDS REMAIN            
LIGHT BY MORNING. WITH GO WITH AREAS OF FOG FOR NOW.                            
.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH SUNDAY                                              
ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN TO CONTINUE FOR THE WORK WEEK AS THE SURFACE             
BOUNDARY IS NEVER FORECAST TO LEAVE IOWA UNTIL FRIDAY NIGHT. SEVERAL            
ROUNDS OF CONVECTIVE WEATHER ARE LIKELY TO OCCUR...WITH HIGHEST                 
PROBABILITES OVER NORTHERN IOWA WHERE SOME HEAVY RAINS HAVE ALREADY             
FALLEN...MAKING LOCAL FLOODING THE BIGGEST THREAT FOR THE WEEK.                 
WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL PROVIDE ENOUGH SHEAR AT TIMES FOR ISOLATED             
SEVERE WEATHER. CONDITIONS SOUTH OF THE FRONT WILL REMAIN TROPICAL              
WITH HIGHS CLOSE TO 90 AND DEWPOINTS WELL INTO THE 70S. TEMPERATURES            
A BIT MORE PROBLAMATIC NORTH SINCE THERE IS A SLIM POSSIBILITY THAT             
COOLER AND DRIER AIR COULD SLIP IN FOR A SHORT SPELL.                           
SPECIFICALLY...AFTER TONIGHT HEAVY RAIN CHANCES APPEAR TO BE MOST               
LIKELY WITH CONVECTIVE COMPLEXES THAT ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP MONDAY            
EVENING AND MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN IOWA...WITH REPEAT ACTION                    
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SAME AREA TUESDAY NIGHT. RETURN FLOW OF COPIOUS             
MOISTURE AND THETA-E ADVECTION IS RAPID ACROSS THIS AREA AS A SERIES            
OF SHORT WAVES COMES OUT IN THE WLY FLOW ALOFT. DIFFICULT TO SEE                
ENOUGH OF A BREAK IN THIS PATTERN THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...SO                   
CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN IN THE FORECAST THROUGH FRIDAY.                
LONGER RANGE MODELS AGREE THAT A RIDGE WILL BUILD SOMEWHAT TO THE               
WEST PUSHING A SURFACE HIGH INTO IOWA AND THE UPPER MIDWEST FOR                 
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...WHICH SHOULD END THE PERSISTENT RAIN CHANCES              
AND DROP TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS BACK TO COMFORTABLE LEVELS.                 
ALL OF THESE RAIN CHANCES LEAVE THE POSSIBILITY OF ADDITIONAL FLASH             
FLOOD WATCHES AND POSSIBLE RIVER FLOODING EVENTUALLY FOR THE                    
NORTHERN HALF OF THE STATE. CEDAR RIVER IS NOW EXPECTED TO REACH                
BANK FULL...AND COULD GO HIGHER IF RAINS TARGET THE SAME AREAS FOR A            
COUPLE OF DAYS IN A ROW.                                                        
.AVIATION...19/18Z                                                              
FNTL BNDRY REMAINS DRAPED OVER THE AREA ATTM. THUNDER BREAKING OUT              
SOUTHEAST RTES/APTS WHERE MOISTURE TRANSPORT INCREASING. FEEL                   
THUNDER NORTH WILL INCREASE DURING LATE AFT/EVENING FCST WITH                   
LOWERING CIGS/VSBYS TOWARD 08-12Z MOST AREAS DUE TO RECENT RAINFALL             
AND LIGHT WINDS./REV                                                            
&&                                                                              
.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH 4 AM               
MONDAY IAZ004>007-IA015>017-IA023>028-IA035>039-IA049>050-                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHORT TERM/AVIATION...REV                                                       
LONG TERM...JUNGBLUTH                                                           
</pre> ia                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS                                             
1131 AM CDT SUN AUG 19 2007                                                     
.UPDATE...                                                                      
MAIN CONCERN WILL CONTINUE TO BE MOVEMENT OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION                
ERIN AND TSRA CHANCES ASSOCIATED WITH IT FOR AREAS ACROSS SOUTH                 
CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS. CURRENT SATELLITE ANALYSIS AND RADAR              
TRENDS SUGGEST THAT TD ERIN IS MAKING A GENERAL EASTWARD MOVEMENT.              
CURRENT 12Z MODELS NOT HANDLING THIS VERY WELL...WITH THE LATEST                
SHORT TERM RUC HAVING THE BEST HANDLE ON ITS MOVEMENT WHICH TAKES IT            
MORE EAST-NORTHEAST RATHER THAN NORTH.  THIS MORE EASTWARD MOVEMENT             
WILL HAVE A BIG IMPACT ON POPS AND POSSIBLE SEVERE CHANCES FOR                  
SOUTHEAST KANSAS. CURRENT THINKING IS THAT MOST OF THE CONVECTION               
WILL STAY SOUTH OR EAST OF THE AREA...BUT CIRRUS SHIELD WITH THIS               
SYSTEM IS THINNING SOME...WHICH WILL ALLOW MORE HEATING IN SOUTHEAST            
KS. LOTS OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AROUND...SO ANY INCREASED HEATING                
WILL INCREASE INSTABILITY ACROSS THIS AREA FOR A SCATTERED SEVERE               
CHANCE.  SO WILL CONTINUE WITH SEVERE MENTION IN THIS AREA FOR                  
NOW...AS HIGHER INSTABILITY AND CURRENT DIRECTIONAL SHEAR LOOKS                 
FAVORABLE FOR A SEVERE WEATHER CHANCE.  LOW LCL VALUES COULD LEAD               
TO AN ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT...BUT MAIN CONCERN WILL BE WET                    
MICROBURST POTENTIAL. SEVERE THREAT LOOKS TO DROP OFF TONIGHT                   
AS DIRECTIONAL SHEAR WANES SOME AS SYSTEM MOVE EAST.                            
WILL ALSO MAKE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS FOR CEN KS AS A MORE                    
EASTWARD MOVEMENT KEEPS PRECIP CHANCES TO THE EAST OF THIS AREA.                
.AVIATION...                                                                    
FOR 18Z TAF SUITE.                                                              
MAIN CONCERN WILL BE FOR THE KCNU TAF SITE AS SOME SEVERE CONVECTION            
IS STILL POSSIBLE IF HEATING CAN MATERIALIZE.  SO WILL CONTINUE THIS            
MENTION IN KCNU.  WILL ALSO KEEP A VCTS IN KICT AND KHUT AS SOME                
ISOLATED TSRA COULD ROTATE NORTH INTO THIS AREA FOR THE AFTERNOON               
AREAS.  LOTS OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AROUND...SO STILL COULD SEE SOME             
MVFR CEILINGS FOR THE KICT/KCNU AND KHUT SITES UNTIL SUNSET.                    
KETCHAM                                                                         
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 619 AM CDT SUN AUG 19 2007/                         
UPDATE...                                                                       
AVIATION...12Z TAFS [RSL/SLN/HUT/ICT/CNU]                                       
IFR/MVFR STRATUS WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT CENTRAL KS SITES UNTIL                 
MID-LATE MORNING WHEN HEATING/MIXING SHOULD ALLOW IT TO DISSIPATE.              
T.D. ERIN OVER CENTRAL OK EARLY THIS AM...PROGGED TO MOVE NEWD                  
ACROSS FAR SOUTHEASTERN KS LATER THIS PM/TONIGHT ALTHOUGH IT                    
APPEARS TO BE MOVING DUE EAST AT THIS TIME. THIS TRACK WILL BRING               
HIGH SHOWER/T-STORM PROBABILITY TO CNU SITE MAINLY AFTER 23Z...WITH             
CONVECTION MORE ISOLD AT HUT/ICT TODAY. STRONG WIND GUSTS POSSIBLE              
WITH TS PARTICULARY AT CNU THIS EVE.                                            
JMC                                                                             
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 313 AM CDT SUN AUG 19 2007/                          
DISCUSSION...                                                                   
SYNOPSIS...                                                                     
TSRA POTENTIAL TO INCREASE TODAY & TONIGHT OVER ESPECIALLY SE KS AS             
REMNANTS OF "ERIN" CONTINUE NE MIGRATION FROM OK ACROSS SC & SE KS.             
WITH MID-UPR LOW ASSOCIATED WITH "ERIN" MOVING NE ACROSS CENTRAL OK             
DEEP-LAYER DIRECTIONAL SHEAR WILL INCREASE MARKEDLY OVER ESPECIALLY             
SE KS. THEREFORE AN INCREASED POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TO             
EXIST OVER AREAS ALONG & SE OF THE TURNPIKE. WITH TROPICAL AIRMASS              
INCREASING GRIP ON THE REGION AS EVIDENCED BY SFC DEWPOINTS OF ~75F             
MIGRATING DUE NORTH ACROSS ERN OK AS WELL AS PRECIPITABLE WATERS OF             
~2.5 INCHES...+RA A CERTAINTY IN SE KS BOTH TODAY & TONIGHT.                    
TODAY & TONIGHT:                                                                
PER "SYNOPSIS" HAVE INCREASED POPS CONSIDERABLY OVER SE KS TO ~70%              
TSRA WITH "POSSIBLY SEVERE" DESCRIPTOR APPLIED. MULTIPLE THREATS                
EXIST: DAMAGING WINDS...VERY HEAVY RAINS AND EVEN A COUPLE TORNADOES.           
(IN FACT TORNADO WATCH #616 JUST WENT INTO EFFECT FOR CENTRAL OK TIL            
8 AM CDT.) SOAKED AIRMASS DICTATES LOWERING MAXES A FEW DEGREES ALL             
AREAS...ESPECIALLY SC & SE KS. AS REMNANTS OF ERIN CONTINUE NE TREK             
ACROSS SE KS SHRA/TSRA POTENTIAL TO GRADUALLY IN WEST-EAST MANNER IN            
CENTRAL & SC KS WITH NUMEROUS SHRA/EMBEDDED TSRA CONTINUING OVER SE             
KS MOST OF THE NIGHT.                                                           
MON:                                                                            
AS PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED TROPICAL SYSTEM VACATES SE KS PREMISES SHRA             
TO LINGER INTO THE MORNING WITH LITTLE ADDITIONAL RAINFALL RESULTING.           
TUE-FRI:                                                                        
FORECAST FOCUS SHIFTS TOWARD FAST WLY MID-UPR DECK FLOW ACROSS NRN              
PLAINS WITH EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES EJECTING E. BEHAVIOR & TRACKS OF THE            
FEATURES BEARS WATCHING AS ATTENDANT COLD FRONT WILL KNOCK ON DOORS             
IN CENTRAL KS FROM TUE NIGHT THROUGH WED NIGHT. SE THRUST OF MID-LVL            
SHORTWAVES APPEARS LACKING. AS SUCH APPEARS FRONT MAY STALL & PERHAPS           
RETREAT NWD AS WARM FRONT WED NIGHT. UNTIL BEHAVIOR OF THE FRONT                
COMES INTO BETTER FOCUS...HAVE FELT IT PRUDENT TO ASSIGN 20-30% POPS            
TO CENTRAL KS BOTH TUE & WED NIGHTS.                                            
AVIATION...                                                                     
06Z TAF UPDATE...SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS COULD AFFECT                   
SOUTHERN KANSAS DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. THE ACTIVITY IS                 
EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD DURING THE LATE MORNING AND                  
AFTERNOON HOURS. OTHERWISE...LOW CLOUDS WITH POSSIBLE IFR                       
CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO FILL IN ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL               
KANSAS AROUND SUNRISE. THE CEILINGS SHOULD GRADUALLY IMPROVE BY LATE            
MORNING OVER THE AREA BUT THE RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN                
OVER THE REGION.                                                                
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
WICHITA-KICT    87  73  94  75 /  50  20   0   0                                
HUTCHINSON      88  72  96  74 /  30  20   0  10                                
NEWTON          87  73  95  74 /  40  20  10  10                                
ELDORADO        86  73  94  74 /  60  40  10   0                                
WINFIELD-KWLD   87  74  94  75 /  60  40  10   0                                
RUSSELL         92  70  96  74 /  20  10   0  10                                
GREAT BEND      92  70  96  74 /  20  10   0  10                                
SALINA          90  72  97  74 /  30  10   0  10                                
MCPHERSON       88  72  96  74 /  30  10   0  10                                
COFFEYVILLE     88  73  89  74 /  80  60  30   0                                
CHANUTE         88  73  90  73 /  80  60  30   0                                
IOLA            88  73  91  73 /  70  70  30  10                                
PARSONS-KPPF    88  73  89  73 /  80  60  30   0                                
&&                                                                              
.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
NONE.                                                                           
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</pre> ks                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
335 PM EDT SUN AUG 19 2007                                                      
.SHORT TERM DISCUSSION (TNGT THRU MON)...                                       
LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC UPPER AIR ANALYSES SHOW RIDGING              
OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS EXTENDING UP INTO SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA. THIS             
RIDGE IS BRACKETED BY UPPER LOWS/TROUGHING ALONG THE NORTHWEST COAST            
AND OVER EASTERN QUEBEC. A SHARPLY DEFINED SHORTWAVE TROUGH CAN BE              
SEEN ROTATING THROUGH WASHINGTON AND OREGON...AND THIS IS THE NEXT              
SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVE FEATURE EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE AREA...ALTHOUGH            
IT WILL LOSE SOME OF ITS LUSTER AS IT WORKS EASTWARD THROUGH THE                
UPPER RIDGE. RADAR IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW A WNW-ESE ORIENTED AREA            
OF PCPN WITH EMBEDDED CONVECTION FROM SOUTHERN MINNESOTA THROUGH                
NORTHERN INDIANA AND NORTHWEST OHIO. THIS ACTIVITY CORRELATES WELL              
WITH AN AREA OF 850-700MB FRONTOGENESIS AND CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY              
SHOWN BY THE 12Z NAM AND GFS. SOME LIGHTER SHOWERS ARE JUST SOUTH OF            
THE CWFA OVER NORTHEAST WISCONSIN...AND THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE                
THEY COULD CLIP MENOMINEE COUNTY LATE THIS AFTERNOON OR THIS                    
EVENING...BUT CURRENT OBSERVED TRENDS WOULD KEEP THEM OUT OF THE                
AREA. MAIN SHORT TERM FORECAST CONCERN IS THE POSSIBILITY OF PCPN AS            
WELL AS ASSOCIATED TEMPERATURE AND CLOUD COVER ISSUES AS THE WARM               
FRONTAL BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO LURK TO OUR SOUTH. UTILIZED A                     
COMBINATION OF THE NAM AND GFS...WHICH ARE REASONABLY SIMILAR                   
THROUGH TOMORROW.                                                               
THE WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS NOT EXPECTED TO MAKE MUCH IF ANY                   
NORTHWARD PROGRESS THROUGH MONDAY. THE NAM AND GFS DO MANAGE TO                 
NUDGE IT SLIGHTLY NORTH LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY...WHICH COULD             
BRING THE SHARP GRADIENT IN CLOUD COVER A BIT FARTHER NORTH...SO                
ALLOWED FOR SOME INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER DURING THAT TIME FRAME. AS             
FAR AS PCPN GOES...CONTINUED TO LEAVE IT OUT OF THE FORECAST THROUGH            
MONDAY. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN ACTIVE THROUGH                         
MONDAY...WITH A PERSIST AREA OF GOOD 850-700MB FRONTOGENESIS                    
INTERACTING WITH AN AREA OF NEGATIVE 850-500MB DIFFERENTIAL THETA-E             
AND GOOD LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. HOWEVER...THIS AXIS OF                             
CONVERGENCE...FRONTOGENESIS...MOISTURE...AND CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY             
WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF OUR AREA. IF ANYTHING...THE PERSISTENT PCPN                
NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY SHOULD REINFORCE THE BOUNDARY AND HELP KEEP IT            
TIED UP TO THE SOUTH THROUGH MONDAY. IN ADDITION...THE DRY EASTERLY             
FLOW FROM THE SURFACE HIGH ANCHORED TO OUR NORTH AND EAST SHOULD                
HELP KEEP ANY RENEGADE SHOWERS AT THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE ELEVATED             
FRONTAL BOUNDARY FROM PEELING OFF INTO OUR AREA. WILL HAVE HIGHER               
POPS NEAR THE WISCONSIN BORDER...BUT WILL KEEP THEM BELOW THE                   
THRESHOLD OF MENTIONING ANY ACTUAL PCPN. IF RADAR TRENDS                        
CHANGE...THEN THERE MAY BE THE NEED TO MENTION AN ISOLATED SHOWER IN            
SOUTHERN MENOMINEE COUNTY...BUT WILL LEAVE THAT OUT FOR NOW.                    
.LONG DISCUSSION (MON NGT THRU SUN)...                                          
QUESTION FOR MON NGT IS WHETHER UPR LO OVER THE PAC NW DRIFTING ACRS            
SRN CAN CAN GENERATE ANY PCPN OVER THE CWA. CONSIDERING THE                     
PERSISTENT NW FLOW ACRS ERN CAN THAT WL TEND TO HOLD DRY CNDN HI/               
ANTECEDENT AIRMASS IN PLACE ACRS THE UPR GRT LKS AND THE PRESENCE OF            
PERSISTENT/ANNOYING BNDRY TO THE S THAT WL INTERCEPT MSTR RETURN IN             
ADVANCE OF SLUGGISH UPR LO MOVING ONLY INTO CNTRL CAN AT 12Z TUE...             
HAVE TENDED TO FOLLOW A SLOWER/DRIER NAM SCENARIO AND RESTRICT POPS             
TO THE FAR WRN CWA THRU 12Z TUE TO THE W OF MODEST H85 LLJ AXIS                 
(ONLY UP TO 30 KTS) AS SHOWN BY THE BIT MORE PROGRESSIVE GFS.                   
OTRW...RETURN OF HIER PWAT WL TRANSLATE INTO INCRSG MID/HI CLDS ABV             
LINGERING LLVL DRY AIR. EXPECT LOWEST MIN TEMPS OVER THE INTERIOR E             
CLOSER TO PERSISTENT HI CENTER/DRIER AIR.                                       
ON TUE...GUIDANCE SHOWS COMMA TAIL FEATURE ASSOCIATED WITH SLOW                 
MOVING LO ACRS SCNTRL CAN SWINGING W-E ACRS THE CWA. OPTED TO LOWER             
GOING 40 POPS TO 30 EXCEPT OVER THE NW SINCE NAM/GFS/UKMET SHOW                 
SHARPER DPVA/H85-3 QVECTOR CNVGC SHIFTING TO THE N OVER ONTARIO...              
CWA PROGGED TO FALL INTO UNFVRBL RIGHT EXIT OF H3 JET MAX MOVING                
THRU NRN MN IN SUPPORT OF CYC IN SCNTRL CAN... AND FCST SDNGS HINT              
AT DRY AIR TRYING TO HOLD IN WITH ABSENCE OF SGNFT HGT FALLS.                   
LOWERED FCST MAX TEMPS CLOSER TO MUCH COOLER MOS GUIDANCE WITH                  
EXPECTATION OF AT LEAST CONSIDERABLE CLD COVER AND LLVL SE FLOW.                
BEST CHC FOR WARMER TEMPS WL BE OVER THE W...WHERE CLDS MAY THIN                
LATE IN THE DAY FOLLOWING PASSAGE OF DEEPER COMMA TAIL MSTR TO THE E.           
ON TUE NGT/WED...12Z UKMET IS FASTER/DEEPER THAN GFS WITH SFC WAVE              
FCST TO RIDE ENEWD IN WSW FLOW ALF BTWN SLOW MOVING VORTEX ACRS                 
SCNTRL CAN AND UPR RDG OVER THE SE STATES. CUT POPS BACK TO 20 OVER             
THE ENTIRE FA ON TUE EVNG BEFORE INCRSG POPS TO 30 AFT MIDNGT OVER              
THE SCNTRL AND E TO ACCOUNT FOR POTENTIAL LO PRES WAVE THAT WOULD               
RIDE NEWD. MAINTAINED THE LOWER POPS OVER THE NW TO ACCOUNT FOR HIER            
PROBABILITY WAVE WL TRACK ALG PERSISTENT BNDRY FARTHER S.                       
IN THE MEDIUM/EXTENDED PD FOLLOWING PCPN CHCS ON WED...HI PRES RDG              
LOOKS TO BE BLDG TOWARD THE FA ON THU. HOWEVER...CONSIDERING SFC FNT            
HANGS UP JUST TO THE SE OF THE FA...WARY ABOUT A DRY FCST...                    
ESPECIALLY OVER THE SCNTRL AND E. IN FACT...12Z GFS SHOWS A SERIES              
OF WAVES RIDING ENEWD ON THIS BNDRY AND DUMPING QUITE A PIT OF PCPN             
ON AREAS SE OF CRYSTAL FALLS TO MQT. THEN QUESTIONS AS TO EXTENT OF             
SFC DVLPMNT/TRACK OF LO PRES IN THE CNTRL PLAINS FOR THE FRI-SAT                
TIME. 00Z ECWMF/GFS/UKMET/12Z CNDN SHOW A DEEPER UPR TROF DVLPG IN              
THE PLAINS WITH THE RESULT A SOMEWHAT DEEPER WAVE TRACKING FARTHER N            
TOWARD NRN LWR MI FRI NGT WITH DEEPER RH/CYC NE FLOW OVER THE CWA.              
00Z CNDN/06Z GFS ON THE OTHER HAND ARE A BIT FLATTER WITH THE                   
TROF/SFC WAVE AND SHOW DEEPER RH/MAIN BODY OF PCPN STAYING TO THE S.            
12Z GFS HAS COMPLETELY SHIFTED GEARS AND SHOWS DRY HI PRES BLDG INTO            
THE AREA ON SAT FOLLOWING PASSAGE OF LAST WAVE ON THE FNT THU NGT.              
ALTHOUGH 00Z GFS REFCST GUIDANCE APPEARS TO SUPPORT THE 00Z CNDN/06Z            
GFS SCENARIO...NCEP MANUAL GUIDANCE INDICATES A PREFERENCE FOR THE              
DEEPER 00Z GFS/ECMWF/UKMET/12Z CNDN FCST. SO FOLLOWED THIS FCST                 
SCENARIO...WITH EXPECTED TEMPS BLO NORMAL ESPECIALLY ON SAT WITH                
STEADY NE FLOW. THEN COOL/DRIER ON SUN WITH NW FLOW BTWN DEPARTING              
LO AND CNDN HI PRES BLDG TOWARD THE UPR MS VALLEY.                              
COORDINATED WITH APX/GRB/LOT/DLH.                                               
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION (FOR THE 18Z TAF ISSUANCE)...                                         
THERE WILL CONTINUE TO BE A VERY SHARP GRADIENT IN CLOUD COVER AS               
YOU HEAD SOUTH OF UPPER MICHIGAN. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SOME DIURNAL            
CU AND HIGH CIRRUS...LOOK FOR VERY LITTLE IN THE WAY OF CLOUD COVER             
AT KCMX AND KSAW THROUGH THE DAY. THE CLOUDS TO THE SOUTH WILL TRY              
TO CREEP A BIT NORTH LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY...BUT CEILINGS               
SHOULD REMAIN VFR...ALTHOUGH SOME MARGINAL MVFR CONDITIONS COULD                
SNEAK INTO KSAW TOWARD DAYBREAK. THE BETTER MOISTURE AND FORCING                
WITH THE WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF THE AREA...SO NO            
PCPN IS EXPECTED.                                                               
&&                                                                              
.MARINE (FOR 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FCST ISSUANCE)...                               
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE AREA WILL                   
GRUDGINGLY SLIDE EAST OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS A WARM FRONT TO             
THE SOUTH TRIES TO LIFT NORTH. ALTHOUGH THE WARM FRONT WILL PROBABLY            
NOT MAKE IT NORTH INTO UPPER MICHIGAN...WE WILL EVENTUALLY SEE A                
COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY SLIDE THROUGH BY LATE THURSDAY. WITH A HIGH TO            
THE EAST AND LOWER PRESSURE TO THE WEST...WE WILL GENERALLY SEE                 
EASTERLY FLOW TONIGHT AND MONDAY GIVE WAY TO SOUTHERLY FLOW BY                  
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE TIGHTEST                
OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS WITH 15 TO 25 KT WINDS OVER MUCH OF THE            
LAKE DURING THAT TIME.                                                          
&&                                                                              
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                        
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHORT TERM DISCUSSION...TRH                                                     
LONG TERM DISCUSSION...KC                                                       
AVIATION/MARINE...TRH                                                           
</pre> mi                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO                                         
245 PM CDT SUN AUG 19 2007                                                      
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
FORECAST CHALLENGE WITH THIS PACKAGE INCLUDES HEAVY RAIN AND SEVERE             
WEATHER POTENTIAL AS THE REMAINS OF TROPICAL STORM ERIN MOVE THROUGH            
SOUTHEAST KANSAS AND SOUTHERN MISSOURI TONIGHT. MODELS NOT HANDLING             
THE REMNANTS WELL AT ALL.                                                       
CURRENTLY...LOW CENTERED OVER NORTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA IN THE VICINITY            
OF PONCA CITY THIS AFTERNOON. MOISTURE FROM SATELLITE IMAGERY                   
SHOWING AN EASTWARD MOVEMENT WHILE THE SURFACE LOW ITSELF SHOWING A             
MORE NORTHEAST MOVEMENT. THUNDERSTORMS MOVING THROUGH THE CENTRAL               
CWA THIS AFTERNOON ARE VERY EFFICIENT RAIN PRODUCERS. WE HAD ALMOST             
6/10THS OF AN INCH OF RAINFALL IN TEN MINUTES FROM ONE OF THESE                 
CELLS AS IT PASSED OVER THE OFFICE. RUC CAPES THIS AFTERNOON                    
GENERALLY AROUND 1000 J/KG BASICALLY WHERE THE THUNDERSTORMS ARE                
FIRING UP. SHEAR VALUES REMAIN HIGH AS 850MB PROFILER WINDS SHOWING             
25 TO 30 KNOTS OVER SOUTHWEST MISSOURI AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS. CLOUD              
COVERAGE KEEPING AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES DOWN. STARTING TO GET SOME              
SEVERE REPORTS WITH THESE THUNDERSTORMS AND WOULD EXPECT SEVERE                 
THREAT TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.                                       
TONIGHT INTO MONDAY...SINCE BOTH MODELS HAVING A DIFFICULT TIME WITH            
REMNANTS OF ERIN...DECIDED TO FOLLOW HPC GUIDANCE. THIS BRINGS THE              
SURFACE LOW INTO SOUTHWEST MISSOURI SHORTLY AFTER 00Z AND TRACKS THE            
LOW INTO NORTHEASTERN MISSOURI OVERNIGHT. LOTS OF MOISTURE WITH THE             
LOW AS IT TRACKS THROUGH WITH 6 HOURLY QPF VALUES OVER AN INCH OVER             
WESTERN AND CENTRAL MISSOURI. PWATS REMAIN OVER 2 INCHES ON MODEL               
SOUNDINGS OVERNIGHT. WE HAVE BEEN DRY HERE FOR A LONG TIME AND THE              
RAIN IS A WELCOMED RELIEF...BUT GIVEN THE RAIN EFFICIENCY OF THESE              
STORMS...DECIDED TO ISSUE A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR THIS EVENING AND              
OVERNIGHT. WE KEEP A GOOD LOW LEVEL JET FROM THE SOUTHWEST AT 40KTS             
AROUND MIDNIGHT TONIGHT...SO SEVERE THREAT TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT.               
LOW PUSHES OFF TO THE NORTHEAST BY LATE MORNING AND PRECIPITATION               
SHOULD BE ENDING FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE DAY.                             
TUESDAY ON...RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD BACK INTO THE CENTRAL              
U.S. TUESDAY INTO THE WEEK. GET SOME DISTURBANCES MOVING ALONG THE              
PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE THAT MAY SET OFF SOME CONVECTION THROUGH THE             
WEEK. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO CLIMB BACK INTO THE MID 90S                  
THROUGH THE WEEK...THAT WILL GET OUR HEAT INDICES BACK UP TO AROUND             
OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE 100 DEGREES.                                                  
GCC                                                                             
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
AT 1715Z...SCATTERED SHOWERS WERE DEVELOPING AROUND THE SPRINGFIELD             
AIRPORT.  KSGF WILL LIKELY EXPERIENCE A COUPLE BRIEF PERIODS OF                 
MODERATE RAIN BEFORE THE AFTERNOON IS OVER.  WILL ALSO MONITOR                  
CONVECTION OVER OKLAHOMA AS IT SHIFTS INTO THE OZARKS THIS EVENING.             
THIS FEATURE IS THE REMNANT CIRCULATION OF TROPICAL STORM ERIN...AND            
COULD PRODUCE SOME VERY HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS THE REGION.  LOWERING             
CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES WOULD BE EXPECTED IF THIS CIRCULATION                 
TRACKS TOWARD THE SPRINGFIELD AIRPORT.  THE JOPLIN SITE WILL ALSO               
NEED TO WATCH THIS AREA OF RAIN CLOSELY...HOWEVER...THIS CONVECTION             
COULD SHIFT SOUTH OF JOPLIN WITH TIME.                                          
PILOTS CAN ALSO EXPECT WIND SPEEDS TO INCREASE WITH TIME THIS                   
EVENING.  15-20 KNOTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION.             
CRAMER                                                                          
&&                                                                              
.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
MO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR AREAS WEST OF A LINE FROM BRANSON TO                 
OSAGE BEACH FROM 9 PM THROUGH 10 AM MONDAY.                                     
KS...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</pre> mo                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE                                        
308 PM CDT SUN AUG 19 2007                                                      
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
MAIN CONCERN FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS IS TIMING OF AND LOCATION OF             
CONVECTION. UPPER AIR CHARTS FROM THIS MORNING STILL SHOWED A GOOD              
AMOUNT OF MOISTURE IN THE LOWER AND MID LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE                
FROM PART OF THE SWRN U.S. AND WEST TX UP INTO ERN NE...WRN IA...               
SD AND MN. SURFACE ANALYSIS EARLY THIS AFTN SHOWED A FRONT LOCATED              
FROM NERN IA NWWD BACK TO LOW PRESSURE OVER SWRN MN/NWRN IA THEN                
SEWD INTO NRN NE...THEN BACK NWWD INTO ERN MT. DEWPOINTS LOCALLY                
WERE IN THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S AT MOST LOCATIONS. WATER VAPOR                 
LOOP SHOWED MAIN CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH REMNANTS OF ERN ACROSS              
OK...A WEAK MID LEVEL LOW OVER NWRN MO MOVING NEWD AND A SHORTWAVE              
TROUGH RESPONSIBLE FOR STORMS OVER SWRN MN/NWRN IA/SERN SD/NERN NE              
MOVING EWD ACROSS SD AND NE. A MOIST PLUME WAS ALSO INCREASING IN               
COVERAGE AHEAD OF STRONG SYSTEM OVER THE PACIFIC NW PUSHING INTO                
THE ROCKIES. 20Z VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED SOME ENHANCEMENT              
TO CLOUDS ALONG FRONT OVER NERN NE. LITTLE OR NO CAP WAS INDICATED              
BY LATEST RUC MEAN LAYER CONVECTIVE INHIBITION.                                 
TONIGHT...EXPECT THAT MOST OF THE CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON WILL                
PROBABLY DIE OUT THIS EVENING. WILL KEEP A SMALL CHANCE OF TSTMS                
GOING AFTER 06Z ACROSS WRN IA FOR CONTINUITY SAKE WITH BORDERING                
OFFICES. WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE OUT FOR DEVELOPMENT OF LOW                    
CLOUDS AND FOG...WHICH SEEM TO HAVE BEEN RELATIVELY COMMON THE                  
PAST FEW WEEKS. EXPECT LOW TEMPS TO BE MAINLY IN THE LOWER 70S                  
WITH SOME UPPER 60S NORTH. FOR NOW...WILL NOT MENTION A CHANCE OF               
PCPN LATE TONIGHT IN FAR WESTERN ZONES WITH DISTURBANCE NOW OUT                 
OVER THE ROCKIES...BUT IT IS MOVING QUICKLY.                                    
MONDAY...IMPRESSIVE WAVE OVER THE WRN U.S. WILL TRACK NEWD TOWARD               
SRN ALTA BY 00Z TUESDAY...WITH MAIN PUNCH OF ENERGY MOVING ACROSS               
THE DKTS. THIS WILL HELP DRIVE A COLD FRONT EASTWARD. 12Z GFS                   
SHOWED VERY WARM 700 MB TEMPS OVER OUR AREA DURING THE DAY (MAINLY              
12C TO 15C) BUT ALSO A LOT OF 700 MB MOISTURE (WITH DEWPOINTS UP                
TO 12 BY LATE AFTN) SO SPC DAY 2 OUTLOOK SEEMED REASONABLE. BULK                
SHEAR IN THE 0-6 KM LAYER INCREASES TO 30-45 KTS...AND SURFACE                  
BASED CAPE GET UP TO OVER 3000 J/KG. INCREASED POPS A LITTLE FOR                
THE DAYTIME PERIOD AND INTO THE EVENING. EXPECT HIGHS ABOUT 90 TO               
95 CENTRAL AND SOUTH...BUT ONLY UPPER 80S FAR NORTH. CLOUD COVER                
WILL BE A BIG PLAYER AS TO HOW WARM IT GETS ON MONDAY.                          
UNSETTLED PATTERN WILL CONTINUE MUCH OF THE WEEK WITH FAIRLY FAST               
FLOW ACROSS THE NRN U.S. AND A FRONTAL BOUNDARY OSCILLATING NORTH               
AND SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION. KEPT POPS IN THE SLIGHT CHANCE TO                 
CHANCE RANGE. MIGHT BE ABLE TO FINE TUNE THINGS BETTER IN FUTURE                
FORECAST AS WE GET CLOSER. TIMING IS GOING TO BE PROBLEMATIC...                 
BUT THE TUESDAY EVENING PERIOD AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY                
NIGHT SEEM POTENTIALLY BUSY WITH HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL. TUESDAYS                 
HIGHS SHOULD BE 90 TO 95...WEDNESDAYS HIGHS IN THE MID 80S TO                   
LOWER 90S AND THEN EXPECT MAINLY 80S THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.                 
LEFT NEXT WEEKEND DRY FOR NOW.                                                  
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
FOR THE FOLLOWING TAF SITES...KOFK/KOMA/KLNK                                    
CONTINUED INTRUSION OF LOW AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE INTO THE CWA                  
FROM LEFT OVER REMNANTS OF ERIN...WILL CONTINUE TO CAUSE WIDESPREAD             
CU FIELD ACROSS MUCH OF EASTERN NEBRASKA AND SOUTHWEST IOWA                     
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. FURTHER NORTH ALONG NE/SD BORDER...                
FAIRLY STATIONARY BOUNDARY IS THE FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY...            
ESPECIALLY NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY INTO MN. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD                 
PREVAIL FOR MOST OF THE PERIOD UNTIL AROUND THE 09-12Z TIMEFRAME                
WHEN THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG FORMATION APPEARS TO BE LIKELY DUE TO                
LOW DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS AND DECREASED WIND SPEEDS...WHICH COULD                
LOWER CEILINGS/ VISIBILITIES TO LIFR/LFR CONDITIONS FOR ALL TAF                 
SITES.                                                                          
&&                                                                              
.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
NE...NONE.                                                                      
IA...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
DISCUSSION...MILLER                                                             
AVIATINO...REESE                                                                
</pre> ne                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE                                            
223 PM CDT SUN AUG 19 2007                                                      
.SHORT TERM...NOW THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. BIGGEST CHALLENGE WILL BE               
CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION.                                                       
SURFACE BOUNDARY NEAR THE NORTHERN CWA BORDER COULD BE THE FOCUS OF             
A FEW SHOWERS OR THUNDERSHOWERS IN NORTHERN CWA AND MAY SAG JUST                
SOUTH INTO THE EXTREME NORTHERN CWA. INCLUDED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF                
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH EARLY EVENING. THIS BOUNDARY                  
SHOULD EVENTUALLY MOVE NORTH TONIGHT AS A WARM FRONT. THE RUC DOES              
NOT SEEM TO BE DOING A VERY GOOD JOB IN THE FIRST 12 HOURS...WITH               
THE NAM BEING A BIT CLOSER TO REALITY AS FAR AS PRECIPITATION IS                
CONCERNED...BUT WITH SOME TIMING ISSUES. AFTER 12 HOURS                         
HOWEVER...THE NAM LOSES MUCH OF ITS CREDIBILITY AND THE GFS LOOKS               
LIKE IT GENERALLY DOES A BETTER JOB.                                            
A QUICKLY MOVING SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHWEST               
UNITED STATES TODAY AND THE EXTREME SOUTHERN FRINGE OF THIS TROUGH              
MAY AFFECT THE EXTREME NORTHERN PART OF THE CWA. MODELS GENERALLY               
SHOW THAT THIS ENERGY SHOULD BE TOO FAR NORTH TO SIGNIFICANTLY                  
AFFECT US. ONE MINOR WORRY IS THAT THE FAR NORTH MAY BE IN THE                  
VICINITY OF THE  LEFT FRONT QUADRANT OF A MODEST AND WANING UPPER               
LEVEL JET. BUT WORKING AGAINST RAINFALL WILL ALSO BE A RELATIVELY               
DRY LAYER NEAR 850 MB WITH THE LOW LEVEL JET NOT PARTICULARLY STRONG            
IN THIS REGION. I WILL ULTIMATELY GO DRY FOR LATE TONIGHT AND MONDAY            
MORNING. THE LATEST RUN OF THE NAM PUTS QPF OVER THE CWA DURING THIS            
TIME PERIOD...BUT LOOKS STRANGE AS IF THERE ARE SOME CONVECTIVE                 
FEEDBACK ISSUES.                                                                
FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING THERE IS A CONCERN THAT STORMS MAY             
DEVELOP IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS IN ASSOCIATION WITH ANOTHER SHORTWAVE            
MOVING IN AND EVENTUALLY SPREAD SOUTH INTO OUR AREA AS A LOW LEVEL              
JET DEVELOPS DURING THE EVENING. THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN PART OF THE               
CWA LOOKS LIKE IT WILL MAINLY STAND THE BEST CHANCE FOR BEING NEAR              
THE NOSE OF THE LOW LEVEL JET. SEVERE WEATHER IS A POSSIBILITY WITH             
THIS AND WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON IT. I WILL LEAN TOWARD KEEPING             
THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION THAT WE HAVE IN FOR THIS PERIOD              
ALREADY...BUT MAY BUMP UP CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION IN THE FAR                   
EAST...CLOSER TO WHERE AN MCS IS MORE LIKELY TO DEVELOP.                        
.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. FORECAST CONCERN DURING THIS               
TIME FRAME WILL CONTINUE TO BE CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS.  OVERALL                
SCENARIO HAS NOT CHANGED MUCH AS WE END UP ON THE SOUTHERN END OF               
THE WESTERLIES WITH SURFACE BOUNDARY DROPPING SOUTH INTO OUR AREA               
AND THEN STALLING OUT...AS EAST/WEST FRONT LIES PARALLEL TO UPPER               
FLOW. ATTEMPTING TO PIN DOWN TIMING OF THE RAINS WILL CONTINUE TO BE            
DIFFICULT AS SURFACE FRONT LOCATION NOT COMPLETELY CLEAR CUT AND MAY            
BE INFLUENCED BY ANY CONVECTION THAT OCCURS THE PREVIOUS DAY. ALSO              
TOUGH TO TELL WHEN ANY EMBEDDED SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL TRAVERSE THE             
PLAINS. DOES APPEAR THAT GFS SUFFERS FROM CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK ISSUES            
A COUPLE OF TIMES. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AGAIN PRETTY HIGH BY               
MID WEEK SO HEAVY RAINS POSSIBLE ALONG THE FRONT. BY NEXT WEEKEND               
THE FRONT MAY PUSH FAR ENOUGH TO THE SOUTH...AS RIDGE TO THE WEST               
AMPLIFIES...TO KEEP IT DRY HERE AND WILL GO ALONG WITH SCENARIO FOR             
THE TIME BEING.                                                                 
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 124 PM CDT SUN AUG 19 2007/                         
AVIATION...18Z TAF. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE                  
FORECAST. ANY THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE TO THE NORTH ASSOCIATED WITH              
A BOUNDARY WHICH LIES WELL TO THE NORTH IN NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA.              
POSSIBLE MID-LEVEL BROKEN LAYER COMING IN OVERNIGHT. THE NAM                    
SUGGESTS A DECREASE IN VISIBLITY...BUT DO NOT SEE A WHOLE LOT TO                
SUPPORT THIS AND THE NAM HAS RECENTLY BEEN OVERFORECASTING                      
REDUCTION OF VISIBILITIES.                                                      
&&                                                                              
.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
NE...NONE.                                                                      
KS...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
HEINLEIN/EWALD                                                                  
</pre> ne                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC                                          
125 PM EDT SUN AUG 19 2007                                                      
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE WILL EXTEND WESTWARD ACROSS THE CAROLINAS                
THROUGH TUESDAY. WARM...HAZY AND HUMID CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED MUCH             
OF THE WEEK. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL ATTEMPT TO MOVE SOUTH FROM                  
VIRGINIA INTO THE CAROLINAS BY THURSDAY...POSSIBLY PROVIDING                    
TEMPORARY RELIEF.                                                               
&&                                                                              
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...                                                   
EXTENSIVE CUMULUS FIELD NOW COVERING ALL MOST OF THE CWA WITH THE               
EXCEPTION OF THE FAR SOUTHERN COUNTIES. LATEST RUC AND GFS FOR THAT             
MATTER SHOW A LITTLE SEA BREEZE ACTIVITY THIS AFTERNOON. LATEST                 
RADAR LOOPS DO SHOW A FEW RETURNS TRYING TO DEVELOP BUT VERY DRY MID            
LEVELS EVIDENT ON MORNING SOUNDINGS AND WATER VAPOR IMAGERY ARE                 
INHIBITING ACTIVITY. OTHER THAN A TWEAK TO CLOUD COVER GRIDS...NO               
OTHER CHANGES.                                                                  
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...                                
VERTICALLY STACKED HIGH PRESSURE FROM 700 MB UP THROUGH AT LEAST 200            
MB WILL SIT OVER SOUTH CAROLINA THROUGH TUESDAY. THE HIGH WILL                  
THEN SLOWLY RETROGRADE WEST WEDNESDAY. LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE AND               
SUBSEQUENT WARM DRY AIR ALOFT WILL ALSO KEEP CLOUDS AND                         
PRECIPITATION AT A MINIMUM TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. BELOW 850                   
MB...HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED OFFSHORE AND WILL KEEP A VERY                    
CLIMATOLOGICAL SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE CAROLINAS.                   
AFTERNOON SEABREEZES WILL TRANSFER MOMENTUM INTO LOW LEVEL JETS                 
EACH OF THE NEXT SEVERAL NIGHTS. THE ONLY EFFECT FROM THESE 20-30               
KT LOW LEVEL JETS WILL BE WARM NIGHTS WITH 5-10 MPH SURFACE WINDS.              
BY WEDNESDAY...THE RETROGRESSION OF THE UPPER RIDGE WILL OPEN UP                
THE EASTERN CAROLINAS TO THE POSSIBILITY OF SLIGHT COOLING OF THE               
MID LEVELS WITH ANY UPPER LEVEL ENERGY ABLE TO DIVE SOUTH AROUND                
THE PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE. WILL ONLY INTRODUCE 20 POPS AT THIS                 
TIME ACROSS SOUTHEAST NC. THERE ARE SOME SUBTLE BUT SIGNIFICANT                 
DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE GFS AND NAM MODELS DEVELOPING LATE TUESDAY              
INTO WEDNESDAY. THE GFS IS MORE BULLISH PUSHING A RATHER STRONG                 
VORT ACROSS NORTHERN NC WHICH DRIVES A SURFACE COLD FRONT INTO THE              
STATE. THE NAM IS MUCH WEAKER WITH THE VORT AND FARTHER NORTH WITH              
THE FRONT. AFTER COLLABORATION WITH WFO MHX...WE WILL FOLLOW THE                
NAM SOLUTION WHICH KEEPS THE FRONT TO THE NORTH.                                
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...                                       
595 DAM H5 RIDGE CENTERED NEAR SAV TO START THE PD. THIS FEATURE                
WILL SLOWLY RETROGRADE THROUGH THURSDAY AND THEN EXPAND SLIGHTLY                
BACK TO THE EAST WHILE REMAINING CENTERED OVER AL BY FRIDAY. THIS               
WILL MEAN A CONTINUATION OF ABV CLIMO TEMPS FOR MOST OF THE TIME.               
OPERATIONAL GFS BUILDS THE RIDGE MORE SHARPLY THAN MOST ENSEMBLE                
RUNS SO MEX STRINGS HAVE BEEN SLIGHTLY UNDERCUT.                                
PRECIP CHANCES WILL BE MOST AFFECTED BY LOW LEVEL FEATURES GIVEN THE            
FAIRLY MINIMAL CHANGES IN THE UPPER PATTERN. PIEDMONT TROUGHINESS               
DEVELOPING SLOWLY ON WEDNESDAY WILL ACT TO IMPORT SOME LL AND MIDLVL            
MOISTURE BUT NOT ENOUGH TO WARRANT POPS EXCEPT FOR AT NIGHT. SLGT               
CHANCE POPS THEN SEEM TO BE PLAUSIBLE FOR THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK             
AS PW VALUES ARE AT OR SLIGHTLY ABV CLIMO BUT FORCING REMAINS QUITE             
WEAK.                                                                           
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...                                      
SOUTHEAST FLOW THIS AFTERNOON. CONVECTION TRYING TO FIRE WITH                   
CUMULUS CONGESTUS FORMING AROUND THE AREA. THINK THUNDERSTORMS WILL             
BE ISOLATED ENOUGH TO LEAVE OUT OF THE TERMINALS FOR NOW. GOOD                  
RADIATION AGAIN TONIGHT WILL BRING MVFR/IFR FOG AFTER 09Z. SEVERITY             
OF FOG WILL BE LEFT UP TO LATER TAFS. COULD ALSO SEE LIFR STRATUS               
AGAIN WITH THE WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT. SOUTHWEST FLOW MONDAY                      
MORNING...WITH A MVFR CEILING ALONG THE COAST POSSIBLE WITH GOOD LOW            
LEVEL MOISTURE. CONVECTION POSSIBLE TOWARD THE END OF THE FORECAST              
PERIOD.                                                                         
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ON TUESDAY...SCATTERED WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.           
&&                                                                              
.MARINE...                                                                      
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...                                                    
BUOY OBS SHOW ESE WINDS STILL A SOLID 15 KT...AS KLTX VWP INDICATES             
JETTING AROUND 20 KT AT 1000 FEET.  SEAS RUNNING AROUND 3 FT...WITH             
A 17 SEC ESE SWELL STARTING TO SHOW UP.                                         
NOCTURNAL JETTING WILL WEAKEN AFTER DAYBREAK...ALLOWING WINDS TO                
VEER TO SE AS THE PATTERN BECOMES MORE SEABREEZE-DOMINATED.  WILL               
KEEP CONDITIONS BELOW THRESHOLDS...CAPPING SPEEDS AT 15 KT AND SEAS             
AT 4 FT.                                                                        
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...                                 
HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE WILL MAINTAIN A VERY CLIMATOLOGICAL SOUTH                
TO SOUTHWESTERLY WIND DIRECTION THROUGH THE PERIOD. WIND SPEEDS                 
WILL INCREASE TO A SOLID 15 KNOTS EACH OF THE NEXT SEVERAL                      
AFTERNOONS AND EVENINGS IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE SEABREEZE.                      
STRONGEST WINDS ARE LIKELY TO BE LOCATED NEAR THE BEACHES BETWEEN               
THE HOURS OF 3 PM AND 9 PM.                                                     
THE BIGGEST WEATHER IMPACT TO MARINERS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS               
IS LIKELY TO BE SWELL FROM HURRICANE DEAN. THE WAVEWATCH MODEL WAS              
NEARLY PERFECT IN SHOWING THE 17-18 SECOND FORERUNNER SWELLS                    
DEVELOPING YESTERDAY EVENING. IT NOW FORECASTS THE SWELL HEIGHT TO              
INCREASE TO 3-4 FT EVERY 10-12 SECONDS BY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.                
THESE LONG PERIOD SWELLS WILL CARRY A LOT OF ENERGY AND WILL MAKE               
BAR AND INLET CONDITIONS QUITE ROUGH...PARTICULARLY AROUND LOW                  
TIDE. SURFERS WILL ENJOY THE NICE SURF EXPECTED TUESDAY AND                     
WEDNESDAY MORNINGS BEFORE THE SEABREEZE ADDS A WIND CHOP TO THE                 
OCEAN.                                                                          
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...                                          
PRESSURE PATTERN QUITE TYPICAL OF AUGUST WITH HIGHEST VALUES IN THE             
WRN ATLANTIC AND A SWRLY FLOW LOCALLY. SERLY DEAN SWELL IS PROGGED              
TO BE ALL BUT GONE JUST BY THE START OF THE PD. GUIDANCE SHOWS A                
SECONDARY SWELL FRONT ARRIVE FROM THE EAST ON THURSDAY BUT THE GFS              
SEEMS TOO STRONG AND TOO FAR N WITH THE SFC WAVE/LOW AT THIS POINT.             
REGARDLESS...MOST OF THE PD WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY SWRLY FLOW                 
CAPPED AT 15 KT AND SEAS 2 TO 4 FT.                                             
&&                                                                              
.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
SC...NONE.                                                                      
NC...NONE.                                                                      
MARINE...NONE.                                                                  
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SYNOPSIS...SHK                                                                  
NEAR TERM...SHK                                                                 
SHORT TERM...TRA                                                                
LONG TERM...BACON                                                               
AVIATION...HDL                                                                  
</pre> nc                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR SOUTHEAST SD/SOUTHWEST MN/NORTHWEST IA             
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD...CORRECTED                             
430 PM CDT SUN AUG 19 2007                                                      
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
MORE HEAVY RAIN FOR THE NORTHEAST PORTION OF THE FSD CWA TODAY...               
WITH RADAR ESTIMATES THE HIGHEST ACROSS NORTHERN COTTONWOOD AND                 
NORTHERN MURRAY COUNTIES. MUCH OF SW MINNESOTA AND NW IOWA NOW                  
SATURATED FROM RECENT RAINS...SO ISSUED A FLASH FLOOD WATCH EARLIER             
TODAY FOR THIS AREA...AND WILL CONTINUE THE WATCH THRU MID                      
EVENING...AS CONVECTION CONTINUES THAT AREA. THIS CONVECTION SHOULD             
WIND DOWN BY MID/LATE EVENING AS THE UPPER SUPPORT SHIFTS EAST.                 
NORTHWEST IOWA AND ADJOINING COUNTIES OF SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA...                 
SOUTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA AND EXTREME NORTHEAST NEBRASKA HAS HEATED OUT            
TODAY...AND IS THE MOST UNSTABLE WITH VERY JUICY LOW  LEVEL SOUTH TO            
SOUTHWEST FLOW. THIS AREA HAS THE HIGHEST RISK OF LATE AFTERNOON AND            
EVENING SEVERE WEATHER...ESPECIALLY IF THE BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS VEER            
TO MORE SOUTHERLY OR SOUTHEASTLY PER THE LATEST RUC. SOME RISK OF AN            
ISOLATED TORNADO THRU EARLY EVENING...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE NORTHWEST             
IOWA AND SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA BORDER COUNTIES...WHERE THE SHEER WILL             
BE THE BEST. THE REST OF THE FA WILL BE RAIN FREE MOST OF THE                   
NIGHT...AFTER A FEW ISOLATED EARLY EVENING SHOWERS...BUT FOG...                 
REDUCING VSBYS TO LESS THAN A MILE IN SOME AREAS..WILL BE COMMON                
LATE TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY MONDAY MORNING. THE CHANCE FOR                       
THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE AGAIN ACROSS THE WEST TOWARD MORNING                
AS THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHES...WITH MORE HEAVY                
RAIN BECOMING LIKELY ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE             
FA DURING THE DAY MONDAY.                                                       
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL BE COOLEST ACROSS THE NORTH WHERE LITTLE              
HEATING OCCURRED TODAY.                                                         
QUITE THE ADVENTUROUS FCST THIS WEEK WITH CONTINUED STREAM OF SHORT             
WAVES INTERACTING WITH E/W BOUNDARIES AND SLY LOW LVL INFLOW OF GULF            
MOISTURE. MODELS AGREE FAIRLY WELL THAT MAIN WAVES AND ASSCD TSTMS              
WILL DVLP ESEWD OVR AREA FM LATE MON MRNG THRU THE AFTN...AGAIN TUE             
AFTN AND EVE...AND ENEWD OVR AREA LATE WED INTO THU. ANY ONE OF                 
THESE WAVES WILL HAVE GREAT POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN WITH LESSER                
CHCS OF SVR DUE TO LACK OF GREAT INSTABILITY. FNTL BOUNDARY WAVERING            
OVER AREA WILL CONTINUE TO CAUSE ISSUES WITH TEMP FCSTG WITH                    
POTENTIALLY GREAT CONTRAST FM NORTH TO SOUTH IN CWA...BUT TREND IS              
FOR MODERATION OF AIR MASS TO THE NORTH...SO HOPEFULLY NO MORE 30               
DEGREE TEMP VARIATIONS FM N TO S IN CWA. MAIN ISSUE WILL BE RAIN                
COOLED AIR. KEPT OUT CHCS PRECIP FOR FRI NGT INTO NEXT WEEKEND FOR              
NOW AS DYNAMICS WEAKEN QUITE A BIT.                                             
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
IFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THRU MID MORNING MONDAY ACROSS MOST OF             
SOUTHEAST SD AND MUCH OF SW MINNESOTA. VFR CIGS ACROSS NW IOWA THIS             
EVENING...BUT A RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THRU MID EVENING...THEN            
EXPECT KSUX TO GO DOWN IN IFR FOG AFTER 20/05Z...THRU MID MORNING               
MONDAY.                                                                         
&&                                                                              
.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
IA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR IAZ003-014.              
MN...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR MNZ081-090.              
NE...NONE.                                                                      
SD...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
RYRHOLM/HARMON                                                                  
</pre> sd                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA                                          
329 PM EDT SUN AUG 19 2007                                                      
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
HOT AND HUMID WEATHER WILL PREVAIL NEXT FEW DAYS AS FRONTAL BOUNDARY            
TO OUR NORTH WILL PUSH SLOWLY INTO THE AREA AND STALL DURING THE                
DAY MONDAY BUT BRING ONLY A SLIGHT INCREASE IN RAINFALL CHANCES.                
&&                                                                              
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...                                                  
SOUTHWEST FLOW INTO THE REGION HAS INCREASED DEWPOINTS DRAMATICALLY             
OVER YESTERDAY AT THIS TIME. A SFC BOUNDARY/DEVELOPING WARM FRONT               
REMAINS JUST NORTH OF THE CWA. RADAR SHOWS ISOLD SHOWERS/STORMS                 
DEVELOPING ACROSS THE GREENBRIER VALLEY AREA IN THE AREA OF BEST LOW            
LEVEL CONVERGENCE. THESE STORMS SHOULD MOVE EASTWARD INTO THE VA                
MTNS/SHEN VALLEY AND POSSIBLY PIEDMONT THIS EVENING. UNTIL                      
SUNSET...OTHER ISOLD STORMS MAY STILL DEVELOP IN THE MTNS AS WELL. I            
HAVE KEPT THE SLIGHT CHC TSTMS THRU 800 PM ALL MTNS AND FOOTHILLS...            
AND THEN HAVE JUST A SLIGHT CHC IN THE WEST CEN VA FOOTHILLS                    
PIEDMONT. LATE TONIGHT...WEAKENING CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS IN THE              
OHIO VALLEY MAY BE MOVING INTO WESTERN SLOPES AREAS OF SE WV...SO I             
KEPT THE LOW CHC POPS OUT THAT WAY. STAYED AT OR ABOVE MOS FOR LOWS             
TONIGHT- SHOULD BE A WARM AND MUGGY NIGHT WITH THE INCREASED                    
DEWPOINTS.                                                                      
KEY TO MONDAY FORECAST IS POSITION OF THE BOUNDARY/WARM FRONT. IS               
ANY ORGANIZED CONVECTION FROM THE OHIO VALLEY MOVES ALONG IT                    
OVERNIGHT...IT MAY GET PUSHED SOUTHWARD INTO THE CWA. BOTH THE NAM              
AND GFS BRING IT NEAR NORTHERN SECTIONS. FOR NOW...I FELT THE BEST              
COURSE WAS TO RAISE THE POPS AROUND 10 PCT TO THE NORTH...AND KEEP              
THE SLIGHT CHC OR LESS ACROSS SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF THE CWA. SOUTHERN            
SECTIONS WILL BE HOT AND HUMID MONDAY...BUT WILL HAVE HEAT INDICES              
OF AROUND 100 WHICH IS BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS OF 105. LOOKS LIKE                 
RECORD HIGH TEMPS FOR MONDAY WIL BE OUT OF REACH AS WELL.                       
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...                                 
MAIN QUESTION IS THE POSSIBLE EFFECTS FROM THE REMAINS OF TD ERIN               
AND IT DOES NOT LOOK ESPECIALLY PROMISING AT THIS POINT. 12Z RUNS OF            
GFS/NAM HAVE NOW BACKED OFF SOMEWHAT ON THE PRECIP COVERAGE ACROSS              
THE CWA AND KEEP BULK THE ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH ERIN TO THE                    
NORTH. PWATS INCREASE TO AROUND 2 INCHES BY EARLY WED. BUT MAIN                 
FORCING REMAINS NORTH OF THE MASON-DIXON LINE. SCATTERED SHOWERS                
STILL POSSIBLE WHICH COULD PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL BUT                   
WIDESPREAD SOAKING POSSIBILITY REMAINS SLIM. 12Z CANADIAN MODEL                 
ALSO CAME IN WITH QPF BULLSEYE CONSIDERABLY FURTHER NORTH THAN ITS              
00Z RUN...MAINLY ACROSS MD AND SOUTHERN PA LATE TUESDAY INTO                    
WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO RUN 4 TO 6 ABOVE CLIMO                 
DURING THE PERIOD.                                                              
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...                                  
596 DM RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN US VERY HARD TO DISLODGE DURING              
THE EXTENDED PERIOD. THE SURFACE BOUNDARY ACROSS THE EASTERN CWA                
WILL WASH OUT BY LATE THURSDAY LEAVING WEAK HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS                
THE MID-ATLANTIC AND VERY WARM TEMPERATURES FOR THE LATE WEEK AND               
INTO THE WEEKEND. POPS IN THE 20/30 RANGE OFFER LITTLE LIKELIHOOD               
OF DROUGHT RELIEF.                                                              
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...                                        
LAPS AND MSAS SHOWING THE AREA BECOMING UNSTABLE THIS AFTERNOON                 
WITH THE SOUTHWEST FLOW BRINGING HIGHER SFC DEWPOINTS. THERE IS                 
LITTLE IN THE WAY OF FORCING FOR CONVECTION LATE THIS AFTERNOON                 
OTHER THAN DIFF HEATING AND WEAK CONVERGENCE IN THE MTNS WEST OF                
THE BLUE RIDGE. RUC MODEL SHOWS PRECIP IN THE NEW RIVER AND ROA                 
VALLEYS 21 TO 00Z...AND THEN MOVING EAST INTO THE PIEDMONT. 12Z                 
NAM INITIATES A LITTLE FURTHER EAST...BUT HINTS AT THE SAME. FOR                
THIS REASON...I HAVE KEPT IN THE VICINITY TSTM THAT WE ALREADY HAD              
GOING FOR ROA...LYH AND DAN. I REMOVED IT FROM BLF AND LWB. I ALSO              
NARROWED THE WINDOW OF VICINITY TSTMS DOWN TO 3 HOUR PERIODS.                   
OTHER THAN A CHANCE FOR IFR OR MVFR WITH A PASSING TSTM...I LOOK                
FOR MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THRU THE NEXT 24 HOURS. LYH MAY HAVE A                
PERIOD OF MVFR FOG TOWARD MORNING. I KEPT IN THE LIGHT SHOWERS FOR              
LWB AS MODELS STILL SHOW SOME WEAKENING CONVECTION MAKING IT INTO               
SE WV OVERNIGHT. SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS WILL PICK UP AGAIN ON                  
MONDAY TO AROUND 10 KNOTS ALL TAF SITES.                                        
MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WILL SEE AN INCREASE IN                    
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY AS WAVES TRACK ALONG A STATIONARY BOUNDARY                
IN THE OHIO VALLEY AND ALONG THE MASON-DIXON LINE. GREATEST CHANCE              
FOR ACTIVITY WILL BE IN THE GREENBRIER VALLEY (LWB) AND LESS                    
CHANCE TOWARD SOUTHSIDE VA (DAN).                                               
&&                                                                              
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
VA...NONE.                                                                      
NC...NONE.                                                                      
WV...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SYNOPSIS...PC                                                                   
NEAR TERM...JJ                                                                  
SHORT TERM...PC                                                                 
LONG TERM...PC                                                                  
AVIATION...JJ                                                                   
</pre> va                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA                                          
142 PM EDT SUN AUG 19 2007                                                      
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TODAY.                      
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL START TO INCREASE HEADING INTO NEXT WEEK             
AS THE FRONT MOVES NORTH AGAIN AS A WARM FRONT INTO THE OHIO VALLEY.            
TEMPERATURES WILL ONCE AGAIN BE ABOVE NORMAL.                                   
&&                                                                              
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...                                         
WITH A SOLID OVERCAST OF STRATO-CUMULUS OVER THE PIEDMONTS OF NW                
NC AND WEST CENTRAL VA...I HAVE UPDATED THE GRIDS FOR MORE SKY                  
COVER THIS MORNING. WITH HEATING...THIS OVC SHOULD SCATTER OUT                  
AROUND NOON OR SHORTLY AFTER. BECAUSE OF THE SKY COVER...I LOWERED              
HIGH TEMPS A DEGREE OR TWO IN THE PIEDMONT. I RAISED THE HIGH                   
TEMPS A DEGREE OR TWO IN THE WEST WITH PLENTY OF SUN...A WARM                   
START AND WEAK WARM ADVECTION THIS AFTERNOON. BLF MAY HIT 90                    
DEGREES...WHICH IS THEIR RECORD FOR TODAY- 90 DEGREES SET IN 1988.              
NO OTHER RECORD HIGHS SHOULD BE THREATENED. OTHER CHANGE TO THE                 
FCST WAS TO RAISE THE DEWPOINTS IN THE PIEDMONT WITH UPPER 60S TO               
70 DEGREE DEWPOINTS SURGING NORTHEAST ACROSS NC. FINALLY...I                    
RAISED POPS IN THE MTNS ENOUGH TO HAVE ISOLD TSTMS ALL AREAS.                   
LOOKS LIKE PIEDMONT AREAS WILL BE THE MOST UNSTABLE WITH THOSE                  
HIGH DEWPOINTS...BUT NO BOUNDARY OR UPPER LEVEL FORCING TO                      
GENERATE STORMS...SO WOULD PROBABLY NEED STORMS TO DEVELOP IN THE               
MTNS AND THEN MOVE EASTWARD INTO THE FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT.                    
BETTER CHC FOR STORMS WOULD THEN BE EARLY EVENING IN THE PIEDMONT.              
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...                              
MODELS HAVE BE SHOWING STATIONARY BOUNDARY DEVELOPING FROM THE                  
GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY AND ALONG THE MASON-DIXON                   
LINE. 07Z SUN SATELLITE DATA IS VERIFYING THIS BOUNDARY. THE                    
FORECAST THROUGH TUESDAY DEPENDS ON THE LOCATION OF THIS BOUNDARY               
AND WAVES DEVELOPING ON IT AND RIDING AROUND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IN               
SOUTHEASTERN US. WAVES THAT MAKE IT INTO THE OHIO VALLEY WILL                   
ALLOW THIS BOUNDARY TO SINK TO THE SOUTH. WITH MOISTURE IN THE                  
AREA AND ENERGY FROM THESE WAVES WILL BRING A GOOD CHANCE OF                    
STORMS TO NORTHERN CWA. WITH MORE INFLUENCE OF THE UPPER LEVEL                  
RIDGE TO THE SOUTH...ISOLATED DIURNAL CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE BUT                
THE FOCUS WILL BE ACROSS THE GREENBRIER VALLEY AND THE VA                       
HIGHLANDS. ONCE ONE WAVE EXITS THE OHIO VALLEY...ANOTHER ONE WILL               
DEVELOP UPSTREAM ALLOWING THE BOUNDARY TO DRIFT BACK TO THE NORTH.              
CONVECTION MAY LINGER DEEPER INTO MONDAY NIGHT AS A LEE TROF                    
BECOMES A LITTLE STRONGER. TUESDAY LOOKS LIKE A REPEAT OF MONDAY                
BUT 00Z GFS BRINGS ONE OF THE WAVES/MCS INTO CENTRAL WV-VA. THIS                
WILL BRING A BETTER CHANCE FOR STORMS NORTH OF 460.                             
AREA WILL REMAIN ON THE WARM SIDE OF THE FRONT AND WITH UPPER LEVEL             
RIDGE TO THE SOUTH...TEMPERATURES WILL RUN ABOVE NORMAL INTO                    
TUESDAY.                                                                        
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...                                  
THIS TIME PERIOD WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY A TRANSITION BACK TO A                
MORE DIURNAL POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS MAINLY IN WESTERN                 
PARTS OF THE AREA. WHILE ADDITIONAL SHOWERS/STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE             
MAINLY IN THE NORTH WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT STILL IN THE                  
PROXIMITY OF THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...AN APPROACHING             
TROUGH IN THE CENTRAL PART OF THE U.S. WILL HELP LIFT THIS FRONT                
NORTH INTO NEW ENGLAND. AS THIS HAPPENS...THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD            
BACK NORTH OVER OUR AREA. THIS WILL PLACE US IN A REGIME WITH                   
LIMITED...IF ANY...DYNAMICS ALOFT...BUT WE STILL WILL HAVE PLENTY OF            
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND AFTERNOON INSTABILITY FOR ISOLATED TO                    
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS MAINLY IN THE MOUNTAINS. THE RIDGE                 
AGAIN WILL GET SHUNTED SOUTH HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND AS ANOTHER                
COLD FRONT TRIES TO PUSH INTO THE AREA. A BETTER CHANCE OF ORGANIZED            
PRECIPITATION WILL RETURN TO THE AREA BECAUSE OF THIS.                          
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...                                        
LAPS AND MSAS SHOWING THE AREA BECOMING UNSTABLE THIS AFTERNOON                 
WITH THE SOUTHWEST FLOW BRINGING HIGHER SFC DEWPOINTS. THERE IS                 
LITTLE IN THE WAY OF FORCING FOR CONVECTION LATE THIS AFTERNOON                 
OTHER THAN DIFF HEATING AND WEAK CONVERGENCE IN THE MTNS WEST OF                
THE BLUE RIDGE. RUC MODEL SHOWS PRECIP IN THE NEW RIVER AND ROA                 
VALLEYS 21 TO 00Z...AND THEN MOVING EAST INTO THE PIEDMONT. 12Z                 
NAM INITIATES A LITTLE FURTHER EAST...BUT HINTS AT THE SAME. FOR                
THIS REASON...I HAVE KEPT IN THE VICINITY TSTM THAT WE ALREADY HAD              
GOING FOR ROA...LYH AND DAN. I REMOVED IT FROM BLF AND LWB. I ALSO              
NARROWED THE WINDOW OF VICINITY TSTMS DOWN TO 3 HOUR PERIODS.                   
OTHER THAN A CHANCE FOR IFR OR MVFR WITH A PASSING TSTM...I LOOK                
FOR MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THRU THE NEXT 24 HOURS. LYH MAY HAVE A                
PERIOD OF MVFR FOG TOWARD MORNING. I KEPT IN THE LIGHT SHOWERS FOR              
LWB AS MODELS STILL SHOW SOME WEAKENING CONVECTION MAKING IT INTO               
SE WV OVERNIGHT. SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS WILL PICK UP AGAIN ON                  
MONDAY TO AROUND 10 KNOTS ALL TAF SITES.                                        
MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WILL SEE AN INCREASE IN                    
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY AS WAVES TRACK ALONG A STATIONARY BOUNDARY                
IN THE OHIO VALLEY AND ALONG THE MASON-DIXON LINE. GREATEST CHANCE              
FOR ACTIVITY WILL BE IN THE GREENBRIER VALLEY (LWB) AND LESS                    
CHANCE TOWARD SOUTHSIDE VA (DAN).                                               
&&                                                                              
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
VA...NONE.                                                                      
NC...NONE.                                                                      
WV...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SYNOPSIS...RCS                                                                  
NEAR TERM...JJ                                                                  
SHORT TERM...RCS                                                                
LONG TERM...DS                                                                  
AVIATION...JJ/RCS                                                               
</pre> va