AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO                                              
230 PM MST SAT APR 2 2005                                                       
.SHORT TERM...                                                                  
(TONIGHT AND SUNDAY)                                                            
MAIN SHORT TERM CONCERNS ARE TEMPERATURES.                                      
CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATING               
WEAK TO MODERATE WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE REGION...WITH                   
EASTERN PACIFIC UPPER TROUGH MOVING ONSHORE ACROSS THE PAC NW COAST             
ATTM. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY ALSO INDICATING MINOR SHORT WAVES EMBEDDED            
IN THE WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT...WITH ONE MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN NEVADA             
AND THE OTHER MOVING ACROSS SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA ATTM. VISIBLE                   
SATELLITE AND SFC OBS STILL INDICATING A HEALTHY SNOW FIELD ACROSS              
SOUTHERN FOOTHILLS AND RATON MESA REGION...WITH KPUB IN THE LOWER 70S           
AND KTAD IN THE LOWER 50S ATTM.                                                 
TONIGHT...MINOR EMBEDDED WAVES IN THE WESTERLY FLOW MOVE ACROSS THE             
REGION AS EASTERN PAC SYSTEM CONTINUES TO MOVE INTO THE PAC NW.                 
WEAK WAVES TO SPREAD MAINLY HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS THE STATE                  
OVERNIGHT...WITH LEE TROUGHING ACROSS THE I-25 CORRIDOR KEEPING A               
WEAK WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS AND TEMPERATURES UP OVERNIGHT. HAVE                
WARMED CURRENT GRIDS UP A NOTCH...ESPECIALLY LOWER SLOPES OF THE                
EASTERN MTS WITH GAP FLOWS SETTING UP. LATEST RUNS OF NAM PRINTING              
SOME QPF ACROSS THE SW AND CENTRAL MTS...AND HAVE ADDED SOME                    
SLIGHT POPS WITH MAINLY FLURRIES POSSIBLE ACROSS THE HIGHEST                    
ELEVATIONS ONLY...AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE PRETTY SPARSE.                          
SUNDAY...WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW INCREASES ACROSS THE REGION AS PAC              
NW SYSTEM BEGINS TO DIG ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN. LEE TROUGHING MOVES             
ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS...AND WITH LAPSE RATES AROUND 8C/KM                   
SUPPORTING GOOD MIXING...WILL SEE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 15 TO             
20 MPH DEVELOP ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS IN THE AFTERNOON. H7 TEMPS             
WARM SLIGHTLY...AND WITH DOWNSLOPE WINDS...COULD SEE TEMPS IN THE 70S           
TO LOWER 80S ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS...THOUGH HAVE TEMPERED HIGHS A           
TAD WITH SOME HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS MOVING ACROSS THE REGION. HAVE ALSO             
GONE BELOW GUIDANCE VALUES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN FOOTHILLS...WITH SNOW            
COVER CONTINUING TO MELT.  -MW                                                  
.LONG TERM...                                                                   
(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)                                                 
MAIN FORECAST CONCERN IS MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY STORM. MODELS STILL               
STRUGGLING TO CAPTURE INCOMING UPPER TROUGH...WITH A WIDE VARIETY               
OF SOLUTIONS AVAILABLE. GFS HAS BEEN FAIRLY CONSISTENT...PORTRAYING             
A MORE NORTHERN SOLUTION...WITH THE UPPER LOW NOT CLOSING OFF UNTIL             
IT EJECTS INTO WRN KS ON TUES. ETA HAS BEEN A LITTLE MORE ERRATIC...            
WITH 12Z RUN VERY DEEP AND FARTHER WEST WITH THE CLOSED LOW...WHILE             
18Z RUN IS SLIGHTLY WEAKER AND FARTHER NORTH. FOR THIS FORECAST                 
CYCLE...GRIDS WILL LEAN TOWARD THE STRONGER 12Z ETA SOLUTION...AS               
ALL MODELS...EVEN THE ECMWF AND UKMET...HAVE BEEN TOO WEAK WITH                 
UPPER TROUGHS AMPLIFYING OVER THE SRN ROCKIES THE LAST FEW WEEKS.               
WILL NOTE THAT AIR MASS WITH THIS STORM LOOKS SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN              
THE PREVIOUS SYSTEM...WHICH SHOULD KEEP THE RAIN/SNOW LINE ABOVE                
5500 FEET OR SO THIS TIME AROUND. DIDN'T MAKE MANY BIG GRID                     
CHANGES...BUT BUMPED UP POPS ON THE PALMER DIVIDE/TELLER COUNTY MON             
NIGHT...AS PRECIP TENDS TO START THEIR EARLIER THAN MODEL FCSTS. ALSO           
DELAYED THE PRECIP/TSRA CHANCE UNTIL LATER MON AFTERNOON OVER THE               
PLAINS. REALLY CRANKED THE WINDS UP TUES...AS ETA HAS SOME 70 KNOT              
FLAGS AT 700 MB DURING THE DAY.                                                 
RIDGE THEN REBUILDS FOR WARMER AND DRIER WEATHER THROUGH FRIDAY...              
BEFORE NEXT UPPER TROUGH MOVES INTO THE SRN ROCKIES SATURDAY.                   
INITIAL THOUGHT IS THIS SYSTEM LOOKS WARMER AND SLOWER THAN PREVIOUS            
FEW...SO ONLY ADDED POPS TO FAR WRN ZONES AT THIS POINT...AND KEPT              
TEMPS WARMER THAN MEX GUIDANCE SAT AFTERNOON. --PETERSEN                        
&&                                                                              
.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                        
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</PRE></TT></td>   co                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL                                         
845 PM EST SAT APR 2 2005                                                       
.SHORT TERM...                                                                  
WILL UPDATE THE ZONES TO REMOVE THE WIND ADVISORY. MADE A FEW TWEAKS            
TO WINDS IN THE GRIDS...BUT OVERALL NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE MADE.           
&&                                                                              
.MARINE...                                                                      
LATEST RUC GUIDANCE SHOWS WINDS DROPPING OVERNIGHT. BELIEVE WE CAN              
DOWNGRADE THE NEAR SHORE WATERS TO SCEC SINCE SEAS ARE LOWER WITH               
THE LIMITED FETCH. WILL KEEP THE SCA IN EFFECT FOR THE OUTER WATERS             
WHERE SEAS WILL BE MORE SLOW TO SUBSIDE.                                        
&&                                                                              
.FIRE WEATHER...                                                                
RED FLAG WARNING FOR TODAY HAS EXPIRED. WARNINGS AND WATCHES                    
FOR TOMORROW AND MONDAY...RESPECTIVELY REMAIN IN EFFECT.                        
&&                                                                              
.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
AL...NONE.                                                                      
GA...NONE.                                                                      
FL...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SUWANNEE RIVER-DESTIN 20-60 NM OFFSHORE.              
     RED FLAG WARNING ALL ZONES SUNDAY 11 AM TILL SUNSET.                       
     FIRE WEATHER WATCH ALL ZONES MONDAY NOON TILL SUNSET.                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
TJT                                                                             
</PRE></TT></td>   fl                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL                                             
1041 AM CST SAT APR 2 2005                                                      
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE MOVED OUT OF THE MIDWEST QUICKLY THIS                      
MORNING...TAKING SIGNIFICANT CLOUD COVER WITH IT.  MIDNIGHT SHIFT CLEARED       
CLOUDS OUT OF FORECAST AS A RESULT.  LITTLE LEFT TO UPDATE.                     
HOWEVER...WITH FULL SUNSHINE...MAX TEMPS IN THE GRIDS ARE A LITTLE              
LOW.  EVEN WITH CAA AT ALL LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE...TEMPERATURES              
ARE ON A FAST CLIMB WITH ALL THE SUNSHINE.  EVEN A LITTLE BIT OF                
CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE AREA...WELL BEFORE NOON.  AS A                   
RESULT...HAVE TWEAKED MAX TEMPS A BIT AS WELL AS THE CLOUDS.                    
OTHERWISE...FORECAST SEEMS TO BE ON TRACK.                                      
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION...                                                             
THE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAM UPPER LEVEL SYSTEMS THAT AFFECTED              
THE AREA ON FRIDAY ARE CURRENTLY MERGING INTO A SINGLE UPPER LEVEL              
LOW CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN ILLINOIS AT THE MOMENT.  SOUTHERN STREAM             
ENERGY IS MOSTLY SHEARING OUT OVER TN/KY WHILE AN ELONGATED VORTMAX...          
JUST ABOUT OVER THE QUAD CITIES AREA ACCORDING TO WV SATELLITE                  
IMAGERY...PUSHES SOUTHWARD.  THIS HAS HELPED HANG SOME CLOUDS AND A             
FEW SHOWERS BACK IN THE AREA...MAINLY ACROSS THE EASTERN COUNTIES.              
PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN WILL BE THE TIMING OF THE PRECIP AND                   
REMAINING CLOUD COVER PULLING OUT OF HERE EARLY TODAY...AS WELL AS              
DETERMINING WIND GUST POTENTIAL FOR THE FIRST PART OF TODAY...                  
OTHERWISE THE WEEKEND LOOKS NICE AND QUIET.                                     
SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY...                                            
VORT LOBE ASSOCIATED WITH NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY WHICH IS STREAMING             
SOUTH INTO THE UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER SOUTHERN IL HAS ALLOWED SOME                
PESKY CLOUDS AND SHOWERS TO HANG BACK OVER THE AREA...MAINLY                    
AFFECTING THE EASTERN COUNTIES.  SFC REFLECTION OF THIS SYSTEM IS               
WELL EAST OF THE AREA WITH A DEEPENING 994 MB LOW OVER WEST                     
VIRGINIA.  RUC AND ETA APPEAR TO HAVE ANALYZED THE AFOREMENTIONED               
VORT LOBE PROPERLY...AND INDICATE IT SHOULD PASS THROUGH THE CWA                
ALLOWING SOME CLEARING SKIES BY AFTERNOON... WITH THIS IN MIND... AS            
WELL AS CURRENT TRENDS... I'VE ADDED A SLIGHT CHANCE RAIN SHOWERS               
(20 POPS) SOUTH AND EAST OF THE ILLINOIS RIVER.                                 
WITH CLOUDS CLEARING OUT BY AFTERNOON...TEMPERATURES SHOULD RECOVER             
TO THE MID-50S...SO NO BIG CHANGES TO THE GRIDS NECESSARY HERE.                 
WITH THE DEEPENING SFC LOW OFF TO OUR EAST WE'RE IN A BREEZY                    
NORTHWEST FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT.                     
WINCHESTER PROFILER STILL SHOWING SOME 35 KNOT WINDS JUST OFF THE               
DECK...AND ETA BUFKIT MOMENTUM XFER TOOL INDICATES GUSTS TO AROUND              
25-30 KNOTS POSSIBLE IN MOST AREAS UNTIL THIS AFTERNOON...GUSTING A             
BIT STRONGER AND LONGER FARTHER SOUTH AND EAST.  WILL INCLUDE GUSTY             
WORDING IN THE GRIDS AND THE ZONES FOR THIS MORNING...AND UNTIL                 
EVENING FOR THE SOUTHEAST COUNTIES.  WINDS SHOULD QUICKLY SLACKEN               
OFF TONIGHT AS SFC RIDGE AXIS NOSES IN. WITH CLEARING SKIES AND                 
SLACKENING WINDS WE SHOULD DECOUPLE... ALLOWING OVERNIGHT LOWS TO               
DIP DOWN TO THE LOWER 30S ACROSS THE AREA... STAYING ON THE                     
LOWER SIDE OF GUIDANCE.                                                         
AS THIS SYSTEM CONTINUES TO PUSH EAST OF THE AREA TODAY... RIDGE                
AXIS WILL BEGIN TO NOSE INTO THE AREA BRINGING PLEASANT SPRING WX TO            
CENTRAL ILLINOIS FOR MUCH OF THE WEEKEND... IT SHOULD BE A SLOW DAY             
FOR THE WEATHER COMPLAINTS DEPARTMENT ON MONDAY AS HIGHS SHOULD                 
REACH THE LOW 70S.                                                              
LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...                                           
MODELS ARE ACTUALLY IN FAIR AGREEMENT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...ALL             
SHOWING A DIGGING SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE OVER NORTHEASTERN NEW               
MEXICO BY 12Z TUE WITH A SHORTWAVE RIDING THE NORTHERN STREAM MOVING            
THROUGH SK AND MT.  GFS INDICATING SFC LEE CYCLOGENESIS OVER THE TX             
PANHANDLE DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY... WITH A WEAKER SFC LOW OVER MN            
IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE NORTHERN SYSTEM.                                        
THIS IS WHERE SOME DIFFERENCES IN NUMERICAL GUIDANCE BEGIN TO COME              
INTO PLAY.  THE GFS SEEMS TO FAVOR A DOMINANT NORTHERN SYSTEM WHICH             
DROPS RAPIDLY SOUTH AS THE TWO SYSTEMS BEGIN TO PHASE OVER PA ON                
FRIDAY... THE CANADIAN IS MUCH SLOWER AND WEAKER WITH THE NORTHERN              
SYSTEM...WHICH IS QUICKLY ABSORBED INTO A STRONGER SOUTHERN SYSTEM              
OVER MO BY WEDNESDAY EVENING.  THE ECMWF SEEMS TO LIE RIGHT IN                  
BETWEEN...WITH NEITHER SYSTEM DOMINATING...AND SLOWLY PHASING THE               
TWO INTO AN ELONGATED SHORTWAVE TROUGH ON THURSDAY...WHICH MOVES                
JUST EAST OF THE AREA ON FRIDAY.                                                
FOR THE MOST PART...THE DIFFERENCES HAVE LITTLE AFFECT ON THE                   
FORECAST THROUGH THURSDAY...HOWEVER THE GFS SOLUTION WOULD FAVOR                
PRECIPITATION LASTING LATER INTO THE WEEK WITH THE DOMINATE NORTHERN            
SYSTEM PLOWING SOUTH AS IT PHASES INTO ONE CUTOFF LOW OVER PA ON                
FRI/SAT.                                                                        
ONLY CHANGE TO THE TUE/WED TIME FRAME WAS TO PULL BACK POPS UNTIL               
LATER TUESDAY IN AGREEMENT WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES.  ALSO KEPT THE             
MENTION OF THUNDER FOR TUE/WED.  WITH THE BULK OF THE MODELS                    
AGREEING ON A RATHER POTENT CUTOFF SOMEWHERE NEAR OR EAST OF HERE               
TOWARDS THE LATTER PART OF NEXT WEEK...I'VE PUT A BIT OF A COOLING              
TREND ON THE GOING FORECAST FOR THU/FRI... WITH NORTHWEST WINDS BUT             
JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIP IN FOR NOW.                                      
&&                                                                              
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
.IL...NONE.                                                                     
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
HJS/HARDIMAN                                                                    
</PRE></TT></td>   il                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC                             
1110 AM EST SAT APR 2 2005                                                      
.SHORT TERM (REST OF TODAY)...                                                  
STRONG STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING A VAREITY OF CONDITIONS TO THE CWA               
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. FLOOD AND SEVERE THREATS ARE THE MAIN                   
FOCUS FOR THE REMAINDER OF TODAY AND WILL BE FOCUSED ON DURING                  
THIS UPDATE. SYNOPTIC WIND THREAT FOR OUR ENTIRE CWA AND SNOW                   
THREAT ACROSS OUR WESTERN CWA TONIGHT/SUN WILL BE DISCUSSED                     
FURTHER IN THE AFTERNOON PACKAGE.                                               
MSL PRESSURE ANALYSIS SHOWS LOW PRESSURE CENTER (ABOUT 992 MB)                  
ACROSS NORTHERN VA AT 15Z. WARM FRONT HAS NUDGED NORTH OF LOWER                 
SOUTHERN MD...AND IS MAKING A RUN TOWARD THE DISTRICT. ALONG AND                
SOUTH OF THE WARM FRONT...TEMPERATURES HAVE RISEN AOA 60F...WITH                
DEWPOINTS OF 55-60F ACROSS THIS REGION. AXIS OF MOISTURE/THETA-E                
CONVERGENCE/ADVECTION EXISTS ROUGHLY FROM BWI SW THROUGH DCA DOWN               
TO SPOTSY COUNTY...AND POINTS EAST. THIS IS SUPPORTING ORGANIZED                
CONVECTION...PER LATEST RADAR IMAGES AND WARNINGS THAT HAVE BEEN                
ISSUED. THIS AREA OF ORGANIZED CONVECTION WILL MOVE EAST THROUGH                
OUR CWA THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...ANOTHER ROUND                        
OF POTENTIALLY SEVERE CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR AS DRY SLOT               
BRIEFLY WORKS INTO OUR CWA AND STRONG UPPER LEVEL ENERGY SWINGS                 
ACROSS LATER THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. SEVERE THREATS ARE SEVERAL-                
FOLD...AND WILL INCLUDE DAMAGING WINDS...HAIL...AND HEAVY                       
RAINFALL. SHEAR AND HELICITY PROFILES SUGGEST THE POSSIBILITY OF                
AN ISOLATED TORNADO. THREATS HAVE BEEN HIGHLIGHTED IN HWO                       
PRODUCTS. ZONES WILL HAVE CATEGORICAL POPS FOR OUR ENTIRE CWA AND               
WILL ENHANCE WORDING FOR OUR CWA...ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE BLUE                  
RIDGE WHICH IS BETTER SUITED FOR SEVERE.                                        
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS IN RA/TSRA THROUGH THE EVENING                  
HOURS...THEN IMPROVING CONDITONS TO MVFR/VFR FROM ABOUT 02Z-03Z                 
ON. INCLUDED WIND SHEAR THROUGH AFTERNOON...THEN WIND CONCNERN                  
WILL BE INCREASE SYNOPTIC WINDS FROM THE NW.                                    
&&                                                                              
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...                                                         
(ISSUED 334 AM EST SAT APR 2 2005)                                              
SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)...                                           
LOW PRES OVER WV THIS MORNING WILL INTENSIFY RAPIDLY AS IT MOVES                
SLOWLY NORTHEAST INTO UPSTATE NY BY SUN AFTERNOON. LATEST RADAR                 
IMAGERY SHOWS LARGE AREA OF RAIN ALG FRONTAL ZONE FROM NRN WV SOUTH             
TO SW VA WHILE LIGHT TO OCCASIONALLY MDT SHOWERS CONTINUE TO LIFT               
NWD FROM SRN VA INTO NRN VA AND MD AS WARM AIR IS BEING LIFTED ATOP             
COOL AIR. LATEST SHORT-TERM GUIDANCE SUGGESTS FORCED BAND OF RAIN               
WILL ENTER THE SW CORNER AROUND 12Z AND TRAVERSE THE REST OF THE CWA            
BETWEEN 15Z-21Z. 06Z RUC GUIDANCE INDICATES VERY STRONG BANDING                 
FEATURE SO EXPECT VERY INTENSE RAINFALL RATES WITH THIS LINE GIVEN              
DIVERGENT/DIFLUENT UPPER FLOW...HIGH PWS OF UP TO 1.5 INS AND HIGH K            
INDICES. AN INCH OR BETTER RAINFALL RATES ARE POSSIBLE IN THE                   
HEAVIEST SHOWERS/TSTMS. THIS WILL BE PLENTY TO CAUSE SMALL STREAM               
FLOODING GIVEN HIGH STREAM FLOW. A THREAT OF SVR WX MAINLY IN THE               
FORM DAMAGING WINDS ALSO EXISTS ESPECIALLY AS YOU GO SOUTH AND EAST.            
LOWER SRN MD AND AREAS CLOSER TO THE CHESAPEAKE BAY HAVE THE                    
GREATEST RISK OF SEEING ANY SVR AS WARM FRONT WILL LIKELY LIFT NORTH            
OF THOSE AREAS. HVY RAINS PUSHES EAST OF THE BAY AROUND 21Z WITH                
SHOWERS STILL POSSIBLE IN WRAP AROUND MOISTURE.                                 
TONIGHT...STRONG CAA ON BACKSIDE OF DEEPENING MID-LVL CYCLONE AND               
STRON UPSLOPE WILL CHANGE RAIN TO SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE HIGHER                
ELEVS. SHSN WILL BECOME HEAVY AFTER MIDNIGHT SUN WITH SVRL INCHES OF            
ACCUMULATION. WINTER STORM WATCH ISSUED FOR FIVE WRN MOST COUNTIES.             
REST OF THE AREA WILL SEE CLOUDY SHOWERY CONDITIONS AS MOISTURE                 
WRAPS UP AROUND MID CYCLONE.                                                    
LONG TERM (SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...                                            
VERY CHALLENGING FCST FOR BOTH FCSTRS TNGT. I HV UPPED THE ANTE A               
BIT IN THE WRN PART OF THE CWA FOR SUN.                                         
VERTICALLY STACKED LOW WL BE OVR ERN PA BY SUN MRNG. TIGHT PRES GRAD            
WL CAUSE A STRNG NWRLY FLOW DURG THE DAY. ETA X-SXNS ARE SHOWING                
40-50KT OFF THE SFC IN THE WRN COUNTIES. THINK THERE IS A PTNL THIS             
WL MIX DOWN. IN GRIDDS WL INDICATE G35 THERE. WHEN NEW MDLS COME IN             
THERE WL STILL BE TIME TO GO UP TO A HIGH WIND WTCH (GT 40 KT IN AN             
HR) FOR SUN IF NEEDED                                                           
ANOTHER CONCERN IS SN IN THE W. STNG NW FLOW...OPEN ERN GRT                     
LKS...CAA COULD LEAD TO SNSH THRUT THE DAY IN THOSE SAME WRN                    
COUNTIES. SHORT TERM FCSTR BLVS THAT SVRL INCHES ARE PSBL TNGT IN               
THAT WRN AREA...HENCE IT BEHOOVES US TO ISSUE A WINT STRM WTCH...AND            
IT'S NOT EVEN APRIL FOOLS DAY.                                                  
FLDG WL CONTINUE TO BE A BIG CONCERN. WE HV ALREADY ISSUED A RVR FLD            
WRNG FOR THE PTMC...MONOCACY...AND RAPPAHANNOCK FOR RISING WATERS ON            
SUN AND MON.                                                                    
I'LL BE HONEST...BYND THE SUNDAY PD HAS ONLY RCVD A CURSORY GLANCE              
FM ME. THE NEW MRF APPEARS STRANGELY FAMILIAR TO WHAT I WAS LOOK AT             
EXCATLY ONE WK AGO - RDG MVS INTO THE ERN U.S. THRU WED..AND THEN               
ANOTHER TROF MVS IN TO BRING ANOTHER PD OF WETNESS FOR THE END OF               
THE WK...SO WE MIGHT BE GOING THRU THIS AGN NEXT WKND.                          
MARINE...SCA ALL WATERS. STRONG LINE OF SHRAS POSSIBLY TSRA WILL                
SWEEP THROUGH THE WATERS BETWEEN 16-20Z WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR                  
STRONG WIND GUSTS GIVEN HIGH MOMENTUM AIR JUST OFF THE SFC.                     
HYDROLOGY...FLOODING STILL LOOKS LIKELY AS HVY RAINBAND SWEEPS THRU             
THE AREA LATER TODAY. INCH PER HR RAINFALL RATES POSSIBLY WITH THIS             
LINE WILL BE MORE THAN ENOUGH TO CAUSE SMALL STREAM FLOODING GIVEN              
LOW FFG. MINOR RIVER FLOODING STILL EXPECTED AT SVRL POINTS ALG THE             
POTOMAC/RAPPAHANNOCK RIVER BASINS. THREAT OF FLOODING LESSENS                   
SOMEWHAT AS YOU GO SOUTHWEST ESPECIALLY INVOF CHO.                              
&&                                                                              
.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
DC...FLOOD WATCH FOR DCZ001 FROM 11 PM FRIDAY TO 8 PM SATURDAY.                 
MD...FLOOD WATCH FOR MDZ002>007-009>011-013-014-016>018 FROM 11 PM              
     FRIDAY TO 8 PM SATURDAY.                                                   
  ...WINTER STORM WATCH FOR MDZ002 FROM 8 PM SATURDAY TO 7 PM                   
     SUNDAY.                                                                    
VA...FLOOD WATCH FOR VAZ021-025>031-036>042-050>057 FROM 11 PM                  
     FRIDAY TO 8 PM SATURDAY.                                                   
  ...WINTER STORM WATCH FOR VAZ021-025-026 FROM 8 PM SATURDAY TO 7              
     PM SUNDAY.                                                                 
WV...FLOOD WATCH FOR WVZ048>055 FROM 11 PM FRIDAY TO 8 PM SATURDAY.             
  ...WINTER STORM WATCH FOR WVZ048-049-054-055 FROM 8 PM SATURDAY               
     TO 7 PM SUNDAY.                                                            
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY.                                                  
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHORT TERM/AVIATION...PELOQUIN                                                  
PREV DISCUSSION...ROSA/WOODY                                                    
</PRE></TT></td>   md                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA                                             
935 PM EST SAT APR 2 2005                                                       
.SHORT TERM (REST OF TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)...                                 
JUST ANOTHER QUICK UPDATE TO MENTION WE HAVE EXPANDED THE WIND                  
ADVISORY TO INCLUDE ALL ZONES ALONG AND S OF MASS PIKE. GETTING                 
SEVERAL REPORTS OF 40-50 MPH GUSTS IN RI DESPITE STRONG LOW LEVEL               
INVERSION...AND IN FACT WE HAD A PEAK GUST OF 49KT AT CONIMICUT                 
LIGHT ON NARRAGANSETT BAY! 00Z CHATHAM SOUNDING HAD 50KT WINDS JUST             
OFF DECK...AND A PILOT REPORT EARLIER FROM AN AIRCRAFT DESCENDING               
INTO LOGAN REPORTED A 60KT TAILWIND DOWN TO 500 FT!                             
FROM THE 830 PM UPDATE...                                                       
WE ARE STARTING TO SEE AXIS OF HEAVIEST RAIN SHIFT INTO SOUTHERN NEW            
ENGLAND. IT EXTENDS IN AN ARC FROM THE MOHAWK AND HUDSON VALLEYS IN             
NEW YORK STATE INTO WESTERN CT...AND RADAR TRENDS SUGGEST THIS AXIS             
WILL REMAIN IN A NW/SE ORIENTATION FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS BEFORE                
ALIGNING MORE W/E. THIS SHOULD BRING HEAVY RAINFALL TO MUCH OF THE              
LOWER CT VALLEY THROUGH MIDNIGHT...INCLUDING HARTFORD AND WESTFIELD.            
ADDITIONAL ELEMENTS LIFTING N TOWARD LONG ISLAND SHOULD BECOME                  
ENTRAINED ALONG THIS AXIS AS WELL.                                              
FARTHER E...IT IS STILL A TOUGH CALL AS TO HOW FAST THE HEAVIER RAIN            
ARRIVES...BUT WE DO EXPECT THAT TO OCCUR AROUND MIDNIGHT.                       
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM (SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)...                                   
A VERTICALLY STACKED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRACK FROM INTERIOR               
PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND TO THE CANADIAN BORDER SUNDAY                  
NIGHT. LEFTOVER PRECIPITATION WILL GENERALLY FALL AS LIGHT RAIN                 
SHOWERS...THOUGH CRITICAL THICKNESSES WILL BECOME COLD ENOUGH                   
TO SUPPORT SOME WET SNOW MIXING IN MAINLY OVER THE INTERIOR HIGH                
TERRAIN BEFORE IT ENDS AROUND DAYBREAK. CLOUDS WILL LINGER MONDAY AS            
THE UPPER FLOW REMAINS CYCLONIC AND AS LAPSE RATES STEEPEN. LOW                 
LEVEL MOISTURE LEVELS WILL DRY OUT AS SURFACE WINDS INCREASE FROM               
THE WEST NORTHWEST DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE LAST SHORTWAVE                     
ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL SLIDE ACROSS EASTERN NEW               
ENGLAND TUESDAY MORNING. THIS WILL ALLOW ANTICYCLONIC FLOW TO DEVELOP           
DURING TUESDAY AFTERNOON. A DOWNSLOPING NORTHWEST FLOW SHOULD BOOST             
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 50S. SIMILAR DAYTIME                       
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE EXPERIENCED WEDNESDAY...THOUGH A WEAKER                  
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL ALLOW COOLING SEABREEZES TO DEVELOP NEAR THE             
COAST. HIGH CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AS               
THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEEPENS ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY.                    
EXTENDED MODEL GUIDANCE INCLUDING THE GFS AND UKMET HAVE BACKED OFF             
ON THE TIMING OF PRECIPITATION LATE NEXT WEEK. THE CURRENT LOW                  
PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE NORTHEAST WILL ACT TO SHUNT THE APPROACH OF            
THE NEXT SYSTEM LATE NEXT WEEK...WITH SLIGHTLY EXTENDED ANTICYCLONIC            
FLOW PERSISTING ACROSS THE REGION. IN ADDITION THE NEXT SYSTEM                  
DEVELOPS THE "CUTOFF" FASTER THAN ITS PREDECESSOR. THUS HAVE REMOVED            
MENTION OF PRECIPITATION WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND HAVE FOCUSED THE                   
STARTING TIME THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THIS APPEARS TO BE ANOTHER                    
POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL EVENT FOR AREA RIVERS AND STREAMS.             
THEREFORE WILL NEED TO MONITOR THIS EVENT CLOSELY IN FUTURE MODEL               
RUNS.                                                                           
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
ALTHOUGH WE ARE SEEING SOME HOLES DEVELOP IN LOW CLOUD DECK OVER                
EASTERN TERMINALS...THIS IS EXPECTED TO BE SHORT LIVED AND IFR/LIFR             
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TONIGHT. LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR SHOULD PERSIST            
UNTIL 06-08Z WHEN LOW LEVEL JET EXITS COAST. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE            
TO MVFR SUN...OR EVEN VFR FOR A TIME...BUT ADDITIONAL SHOWERS SHOULD            
FORM SUN AFTERNOON WITH COLD POOL MOVING OVERHEAD.                              
&&                                                                              
.MARINE...                                                                      
GALE WARNINGS BEING POSTED FOR ALL WATERS.                                      
&&                                                                              
.HYDROLOGY...                                                                   
WE CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE BAND OF HEAVY RAIN WHICH HAS REMAINED                
FOCUSED ON NJ...PA AND MUCH OF NY STATE THIS EVENING. WE ARE                    
CURRENTLY IN THE DRY SLOT BUT ADDITIONAL RAINS ARE LIFTING N ONTO               
LONG ISLAND AND SHOULD FINALLY OVERSPREAD OUR WESTERN ZONES THIS                
EVENING. THERE IS STILL SOME QUESTION AS TO HOW THIS MOISTURE WILL              
INTERACT WITH TERRAIN...BUT HPC'S FORECAST OF UP TO 1.25" THERE SEEMS           
REASONABLE.                                                                     
RAINFALL DURING PAST 6 HRS (ENDING AT 00Z) HAS BEEN IMPRESSIVE ACROSS           
EASTERN PA WITH UP TO 2.48" AT MT POCONO. A QUICK LOOK AT 18Z MODELS            
SHOWS ONCE AGAIN GFS IS DOING A BETTER JOB...QUALITATIVELY...WITH ITS           
AXIS RUNNING THROUGH EASTERN PA AND INTO CENTRAL NY AND BARELY 0.25"            
INTO WESTERN CT. NAM HAD ITS AXIS A LITTLE TOO FAR E ACROSS NJ AND              
LOWER HUDSON VALLEY.                                                            
WHAT MAY END UP OCCURRING IS A BAND OF HEAVY RAIN PUSHES THROUGH                
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND WITHIN A 4 TO 6 HOUR WINDOW TONIGHT...BRINGING             
A QUICK DELUGE OF 0.75 TO 1.50" TO WESTERN ZONES (LESS FARTHER E)               
AND EXITING COAST AFTER MIDNIGHT...SIMILAR TO WHAT IS DEPICTED BY               
GFS. 21Z RUC FOLLOWS THIS IDEA AS WELL AND OUR 10KM WORKSTATION ETA             
AGREES TOO...BUT IS EVEN SLOWER IN BRINGING HEAVIER RAIN THROUGH.               
IMPACT ON RIVERS AND STREAMS IS A TOUGH CALL AS WELL...SINCE THEY               
HAVE HAD TIME TO RECOVER FROM THE HEAVY RAIN THAT FELL EARLIER TODAY.           
A QUICK REVIEW OF HYDROGRAPHS SHOW MANY OF THE FLASHIER LOCATIONS               
HAVE ALREADY CRESTED AND HAVE BEGUN TO RECEDE...BUT ADDITIONAL                  
RAINFALL IN A SHORT PERIOD TONIGHT WILL BRING THEM BACK UP AGAIN                
QUICKLY. WE WILL LEAVE THE FLOOD WATCH FOR SMALL STREAMS IN EFFECT.             
WE ARE COORDINATING WITH NERFC FOR THE EVENING UPDATE ON LARGER                 
RIVERS IN SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. FLOODING STILL APPEARS LIKELY FOR               
MOST OF THE LARGER RIVERS...BUT CRESTS MAY NEED TO BE ADJUSTED                  
DOWNWARD SLIGHTLY SINCE WE WILL PROBABLY SEE LOWER RAINFALL AMOUNTS.            
&&                                                                              
.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
CT...WIND ADVISORY FOR CTZ002>004 UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY.                            
  ...FLOOD WATCH FOR CTZ002>004 UNTIL 7 PM SUNDAY.                              
MA...WIND ADVISORY FOR MAZ011-012>024 UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY.                        
  ...FLOOD WATCH FOR MAZ002>021-026 UNTIL 7 PM SUNDAY.                          
  ...WIND ADVISORY FOR MAZ022>024 FROM 6 PM SATURDAY TO 7 AM SUNDAY.            
NH...FLOOD WATCH FOR NHZ011-012-015 UNTIL 7 PM SUNDAY.                          
RI...WIND ADVISORY FOR RIZ001>008 UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY.                            
  ...FLOOD WATCH FOR RIZ001>007 UNTIL 7 PM SUNDAY.                              
MARINE...GALE WARNING TONIGHT ALL WATERS.                                       
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHORT TERM...JWD/AED                                                            
AVIATION...JWD                                                                  
HYDROLOGY...JWD/DRV                                                             
</PRE></TT></td>   ma                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA                                             
840 PM EST SAT APR 2 2005                                                       
.SHORT TERM (REST OF TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)...                                 
WE ARE STARTING TO SEE AXIS OF HEAVIEST RAIN SHIFT INTO SOUTHERN NEW            
ENGLAND. IT EXTENDS IN AN ARC FROM THE MOHAWK AND HUDSON VALLEYS IN             
NEW YORK STATE INTO WESTERN CT...AND RADAR TRENDS SUGGEST THIS AXIS             
WILL REMAIN IN A NW/SE ORIENTATION FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS BEFORE                
ALIGNING MORE W/E. THIS SHOULD BRING HEAVY RAINFALL TO MUCH OF THE              
LOWER CT VALLEY THROUGH MIDNIGHT...INCLUDING HARTFORD AND WESTFIELD.            
ADDITIONAL ELEMENTS LIFTING N TOWARD LONG ISLAND SHOULD BECOME                  
ENTRAINED ALONG THIS AXIS AS WELL.                                              
FARTHER E...IT IS STILL A TOUGH CALL AS TO HOW FAST THE HEAVIER RAIN            
ARRIVES...BUT WE DO EXPECT THAT TO OCCUR AROUND MIDNIGHT.                       
FROM THE 730 PM UPDATE...                                                       
WE CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE BAND OF HEAVY RAIN WHICH HAS REMAINED                
FOCUSED ON NJ...PA AND MUCH OF NY STATE THIS EVENING. WE ARE                    
CURRENTLY IN THE DRY SLOT BUT ADDITIONAL RAINS ARE LIFTING N ONTO               
LONG ISLAND AND SHOULD FINALLY OVERSPREAD OUR WESTERN ZONES THIS                
EVENING. THERE IS STILL SOME QUESTION AS TO HOW THIS MOISTURE WILL              
INTERACT WITH TERRAIN...BUT HPC'S FORECAST OF UP TO 1.25" THERE SEEMS           
REASONABLE.                                                                     
RAINFALL DURING PAST 6 HRS (ENDING AT 00Z) HAS BEEN IMPRESSIVE ACROSS           
EASTERN PA WITH UP TO 2.48" AT MT POCONO. A QUICK LOOK AT 18Z MODELS            
SHOWS ONCE AGAIN GFS IS DOING A BETTER JOB...QUALITATIVELY...WITH ITS           
AXIS RUNNING THROUGH EASTERN PA AND INTO CENTRAL NY AND BARELY 0.25"            
INTO WESTERN CT. NAM HAD ITS AXIS A LITTLE TOO FAR E ACROSS NJ AND              
LOWER HUDSON VALLEY.                                                            
WHAT MAY END UP OCCURRING IS A BAND OF HEAVY RAIN PUSHES THROUGH                
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND WITHIN A 4 TO 6 HOUR WINDOW TONIGHT...BRINGING             
A QUICK DELUGE OF 0.75 TO 1.50" TO WESTERN ZONES (LESS FARTHER E)               
AND EXITING COAST AFTER MIDNIGHT...SIMILAR TO WHAT IS DEPICTED BY               
GFS. 21Z RUC FOLLOWS THIS IDEA AS WELL AND OUR 10KM WORKSTATION ETA             
AGREES TOO...BUT IS EVEN SLOWER IN BRINGING HEAVIER RAIN THROUGH.               
IMPACT ON RIVERS AND STREAMS IS A TOUGH CALL AS WELL...SINCE THEY               
HAVE HAD TIME TO RECOVER FROM THE HEAVY RAIN THAT FELL EARLIER TODAY.           
A QUICK REVIEW OF HYDROGRAPHS SHOW MANY OF THE FLASHIER LOCATIONS               
HAVE ALREADY CRESTED AND HAVE BEGUN TO RECEDE...BUT ADDITIONAL                  
RAINFALL IN A SHORT PERIOD TONIGHT WILL BRING THEM BACK UP AGAIN                
QUICKLY. WE WILL LEAVE THE FLOOD WATCH FOR SMALL STREAMS IN EFFECT.             
WE ARE COORDINATING WITH NERFC FOR THE EVENING UPDATE ON LARGER                 
RIVERS IN SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. FLOODING STILL APPEARS LIKELY FOR               
MOST OF THE LARGER RIVERS...BUT CRESTS MAY NEED TO BE ADJUSTED                  
DOWNWARD SLIGHTLY SINCE WE WILL PROBABLY SEE LOWER RAINFALL AMOUNTS.            
ALSO OF IMPORTANCE...WE HAVE SEEN STRONG WINDS MATERIALIZE IN NYC               
AREA DURING PAST FEW HOURS AND GUSTS MAY PICK UP HERE AS HEAVIER RAIN           
ARRIVES...ESPECIALLY IN WARM SECTOR WHERE TEMPERATURES HAVE JUMPED              
INTO 50S. WE DON'T HAVE ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO EXPAND WIND ADVISORY               
FARTHER INLAND...BUT WE ARE KEEPING A CLOSE EYE ON IT.                          
FORECASTS WILL BE UPDATED LATER THIS EVENING TO ACCOUNT FOR CURRENT             
CONDITIONS.                                                                     
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
ALTHOUGH WE ARE SEEING SOME HOLES DEVELOP IN LOW CLOUD DECK OVER                
EASTERN TERMINALS...THIS IS EXPECTED TO BE SHORT LIVED AND IFR/LIFR             
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TONIGHT. LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR SHOULD PERSIST            
UNTIL 06-08Z WHEN LOW LEVEL JET EXITS COAST. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE            
TO MVFR SUN...OR EVEN VFR FOR A TIME...BUT ADDITIONAL SHOWERS SHOULD            
FORM SUN AFTERNOON WITH COLD POOL MOVING OVERHEAD.                              
&&                                                                              
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...                                                         
(ISSUED 430 PM EST SAT APR 2 2005)                                              
..NEXT ROUND OF HEAVY RAIN ARRIVES THIS EVENING...                              
SHORT TERM (TONIGHT AND SUNDAY)...                                              
WATCHING NEXT AREA OF HEAVY RAIN OVER EASTERN PA/NJ AND DE AS IT                
TAKES AIM AT SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.  12Z GFS CONTINUES ITS EARLIER               
TREND OF DEPICTING A BREAK IN THE RAIN THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE THE                
NEXT ROUND OF HEAVY RAIN APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTH THIS EVENING. 06             
HOUR QPF AND OMEGA FIELDS FROM THE 12Z GFS VERIFYING AT 18Z APPEARS             
TO HAVE A BETTER HANDLE THAN THE NAM/ETA ON THE CONFIGURATION OF THE            
HEAVY RAIN OVER EASTERN PA/NJ AND DE.                                           
THEREFORE...WE FOLLOWED THE 12Z GFS CLOSELY...ESPECIALLY FOR TIMING             
THIS NEXT SLUG OF HEAVY RAIN. GFS AND NAM/ETA ONLY GIVE THE REGION              
ANOTHER 1 INCH OF QPF THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.  WE ARE FAIRLY                
CONFIDENT THIS IN UNDERDONE...AS SURFACE OBS IN THE HEAVY RAIN TO               
OUR SOUTH ARE INDICATING HOURLY RAINFALL RATES OF 0.30 TO 0.40. IN              
ADDITION...12Z GFS HAS A POTENT 75 KT SE 850 MB JET ASSOCIATED WITH             
THIS HEAVY RAIN BAND.  SO WE BASICALLY INCREASED THE 12Z GFS QPF TO             
1.5 BASIN WIDE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...WITH ISOLATED 2.0 ACROSS            
THE FAVORED UPSLOPE REGIONS (EAST FACING WITH STRONG SE INFLOW) OF              
CT...RI...EAST SLOPES OF BERKS...WORCESTER HILLS AND INTO THE                   
MONADNOCKS.                                                                     
BULK OF THE HEAVY RAIN BEGINS TO TAPER OFF AFTER MIDNIGHT FROM                  
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST...AS MID LEVEL JET EXITS INTO THE GULF OF ME.            
AS FOR TEMPS...PREFER THE COOLER FWC NUMBERS AS THE WARM AIR WILL               
LIKELY BE DELAYED UNTIL THE SURFACE LOW MOVES NORTH OF OUR LATITUDE.            
MODELS SUGGEST THIS WILL HAPPEN LATE SUNDAY...HOWEVER IT COULD BE               
EVEN LATER AS SYSTEM IS VERTICALLY STACKED.  SO...EXPECT TEMPS TO               
HOLD IN THE COOL 40S SUNDAY...ALONG WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AROUND.              
LONG TERM (SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)...                                    
A VERTICALLY STACKED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRACK FROM INTERIOR               
PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND TO THE CANADIAN BORDER SUNDAY                  
NIGHT. LEFTOVER PRECIPITATION WILL GENERALLY FALL AS LIGHT RAIN                 
SHOWERS...THOUGH CRITICAL THICKNESSES WILL BECOME COLD ENOUGH                   
TO SUPPORT SOME WET SNOW MIXING IN MAINLY OVER THE INTERIOR HIGH                
TERRAIN BEFORE IT ENDS AROUND DAYBREAK. CLOUDS WILL LINGER MONDAY AS            
THE UPPER FLOW REMAINS CYCLONIC AND AS LAPSE RATES STEEPEN. LOW                 
LEVEL MOISTURE LEVELS WILL DRY OUT AS SURFACE WINDS INCREASE FROM               
THE WEST NORTHWEST DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE LAST SHORTWAVE                     
ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL SLIDE ACROSS EASTERN NEW               
ENGLAND TUESDAY MORNING. THIS WILL ALLOW ANTICYCLONIC FLOW TO DEVELOP           
DURING TUESDAY AFTERNOON. A DOWNSLOPING NORTHWEST FLOW SHOULD BOOST             
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 50S. SIMILAR DAYTIME                       
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE EXPERIENCED WEDNESDAY...THOUGH A WEAKER                  
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL ALLOW COOLING SEABREEZES TO DEVELOP NEAR THE             
COAST. HIGH CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AS               
THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEEPENS ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY.                    
EXTENDED MODEL GUIDANCE INCLUDING THE GFS AND UKMET HAVE BACKED OFF             
ON THE TIMING OF PRECIPITATION LATE NEXT WEEK. THE CURRENT LOW                  
PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE NORTHEAST WILL ACT TO SHUNT THE APPROACH OF            
THE NEXT SYSTEM LATE NEXT WEEK...WITH SLIGHTLY EXTENDED ANTICYCLONIC            
FLOW PERSISTING ACROSS THE REGION. IN ADDITION THE NEXT SYSTEM                  
DEVELOPS THE "CUTOFF" FASTER THAN ITS PREDECESSOR. THUS HAVE REMOVED            
MENTION OF PRECIPITATION WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND HAVE FOCUSED THE                   
STARTING TIME THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THIS APPEARS TO BE ANOTHER                    
POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL EVENT FOR AREA RIVERS AND STREAMS.             
THEREFORE WILL NEED TO MONITOR THIS EVENT CLOSELY IN FUTURE MODEL               
RUNS.                                                                           
AVIATION...                                                                     
LLWS UNTIL ABOUT 06-08Z...THEN LOW AND MID LEVEL JET EXITS INTO THE             
GULF OF ME.  WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS TONIGHT...WITH CONDITIONS                
IMPROVING TO MVFR SUNDAY.                                                       
MARINE...                                                                       
IN THE SHORT RANGE...MARGINAL SOUTHEAST GALES (34 KT)TONIGHT...THEN             
WINDS EASING TOWARD MORNING.  WINDS WILL REMAIN FROM THE SOUTHEAST              
SUN.                                                                            
IN THE LONGER TERM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SEAS WILL PERSIST MONDAY              
DUE TO LEFTOVER SOUTHERLY SWELL. SOUTHERLY SWELLS WILL REDEVELOP                
THURSDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER SYSTEM.                          
HYDROLOGY...                                                                    
FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES THROUGH SUNDAY. NEXT ROUND OF HEAVY RAIN TO               
YIELD AN ADDITIONAL 1 TO 2 INCHES OF QPF. THIS COMBINED WITH HEAVY              
RAIN FROM THIS MORNING...SNOW MELT ACROSS NORTHERN/CENTRAL NEW                  
ENGLAND AND INITIAL HIGH FLOWS WILL CONTINUE THE POTENTIAL OF                   
SIGNIFICANT SMALL STREAM AND MAIN STEM RIVER FLOODING. BELIEVE MOST             
OF REGION AT RISK...BUT ESPECIALLY SO CONNECTICUT RIVER BASIN WHERE             
ANTICIPATE MAY SEE HIGHER QPF VALUES (AN ADDITIONAL 2 INCHES                    
POSSIBLE). IN ADDITION...EXPECT WIDESPREAD STREET FLOODING AND                  
CONSIDERABLE BASEMENT FLOODING WITH HIGH WATER TABLES.                          
&&                                                                              
.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
CT...FLOOD WATCH FOR CTZ002>004 UNTIL 7 PM SUNDAY.                              
MA...FLOOD WATCH FOR MAZ002>021-026 UNTIL 7 PM SUNDAY.                          
  ...WIND ADVISORY FOR MAZ022>024 FROM 6 PM SATURDAY TO 7 AM SUNDAY.            
NH...FLOOD WATCH FOR NHZ011-012-015 UNTIL 7 PM SUNDAY.                          
RI...FLOOD WATCH FOR RIZ001>007 UNTIL 7 PM SUNDAY.                              
  ...WIND ADVISORY FOR RIZ008 FROM 6 PM SATURDAY TO 7 AM SUNDAY.                
MARINE...GALE WARNING TONIGHT ALL WATERS EXCEPT SCA BOSTON HARBOR.              
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHORT TERM...JWD/AED                                                            
AVIATION...JWD                                                                  
HYDROLOGY...JWD/DRV                                                             
</PRE></TT></td>   ma                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA                                             
730 PM EST SAT APR 2 2005                                                       
.SHORT TERM (REST OF TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)...                                 
WE CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE BAND OF HEAVY RAIN WHICH HAS REMAINED                
FOCUSED ON NJ...PA AND MUCH OF NY STATE THIS EVENING. WE ARE                    
CURRENTLY IN THE DRY SLOT BUT ADDITIONAL RAINS ARE LIFTING N ONTO               
LONG ISLAND AND SHOULD FINALLY OVERSPREAD OUR WESTERN ZONES THIS                
EVENING. THERE IS STILL SOME QUESTION AS TO HOW THIS MOISTURE WILL              
INTERACT WITH TERRAIN...BUT HPC'S FORECAST OF UP TO 1.25" THERE SEEMS           
REASONABLE.                                                                     
RAINFALL DURING PAST 6 HRS (ENDING AT 00Z) HAS BEEN IMPRESSIVE ACROSS           
EASTERN PA WITH UP TO 2.48" AT MT POCONO. A QUICK LOOK AT 18Z MODELS            
SHOWS ONCE AGAIN GFS IS DOING A BETTER JOB...QUALITATIVELY...WITH ITS           
AXIS RUNNING THROUGH EASTERN PA AND INTO CENTRAL NY AND BARELY 0.25"            
INTO WESTERN CT. NAM HAD ITS AXIS A LITTLE TOO FAR E ACROSS NJ AND              
LOWER HUDSON VALLEY.                                                            
WHAT MAY END UP OCCURRING IS A BAND OF HEAVY RAIN PUSHES THROUGH                
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND WITHIN A 4 TO 6 HOUR WINDOW TONIGHT...BRINGING             
A QUICK DELUGE OF 0.75 TO 1.50" TO WESTERN ZONES (LESS FARTHER E)               
AND EXITING COAST AFTER MIDNIGHT...SIMILAR TO WHAT IS DEPICTED BY               
GFS. 21Z RUC FOLLOWS THIS IDEA AS WELL AND OUR 10KM WORKSTATION ETA             
AGREES TOO...BUT IS EVEN SLOWER IN BRINGING HEAVIER RAIN THROUGH.               
IMPACT ON RIVERS AND STREAMS IS A TOUGH CALL AS WELL...SINCE THEY               
HAVE HAD TIME TO RECOVER FROM THE HEAVY RAIN THAT FELL EARLIER TODAY.           
A QUICK REVIEW OF HYDROGRAPHS SHOW MANY OF THE FLASHIER LOCATIONS               
HAVE ALREADY CRESTED AND HAVE BEGUN TO RECEDE...BUT ADDITIONAL                  
RAINFALL IN A SHORT PERIOD TONIGHT WILL BRING THEM BACK UP AGAIN                
QUICKLY. WE WILL LEAVE THE FLOOD WATCH FOR SMALL STREAMS IN EFFECT.             
WE ARE COORDINATING WITH NERFC FOR THE EVENING UPDATE ON LARGER                 
RIVERS IN SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. FLOODING STILL APPEARS LIKELY FOR               
MOST OF THE LARGER RIVERS...BUT CRESTS MAY NEED TO BE ADJUSTED                  
DOWNWARD SLIGHTLY SINCE WE WILL PROBABLY SEE LOWER RAINFALL AMOUNTS.            
ALSO OF IMPORTANCE...WE HAVE SEEN STRONG WINDS MATERIALIZE IN NYC               
AREA DURING PAST FEW HOURS AND GUSTS MAY PICK UP HERE AS HEAVIER RAIN           
ARRIVES...ESPECIALLY IN WARM SECTOR WHERE TEMPERATURES HAVE JUMPED              
INTO 50S. WE DON'T HAVE ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO EXPAND WIND ADVISORY               
FARTHER INLAND...BUT WE ARE KEEPING A CLOSE EYE ON IT.                          
FORECASTS WILL BE UPDATED LATER THIS EVENING TO ACCOUNT FOR CURRENT             
CONDITIONS.                                                                     
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
ALTHOUGH WE ARE SEEING SOME HOLES DEVELOP IN LOW CLOUD DECK OVER                
EASTERN TERMINALS...THIS IS EXPECTED TO BE SHORT LIVED AND IFR/LIFR             
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TONIGHT. LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR SHOULD PERSIST            
UNTIL 06-08Z WHEN LOW LEVEL JET EXITS COAST. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE            
TO MVFR SUN...OR EVEN VFR FOR A TIME...BUT ADDITIONAL SHOWERS SHOULD            
FORM SUN AFTERNOON WITH COLD POOL MOVING OVERHEAD.                              
&&                                                                              
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...                                                         
(ISSUED 430 PM EST SAT APR 2 2005)                                              
..NEXT ROUND OF HEAVY RAIN ARRIVES THIS EVENING...                              
SHORT TERM (TONIGHT AND SUNDAY)...                                              
WATCHING NEXT AREA OF HEAVY RAIN OVER EASTERN PA/NJ AND DE AS IT                
TAKES AIM AT SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.  12Z GFS CONTINUES ITS EARLIER               
TREND OF DEPICTING A BREAK IN THE RAIN THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE THE                
NEXT ROUND OF HEAVY RAIN APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTH THIS EVENING. 06             
HOUR QPF AND OMEGA FIELDS FROM THE 12Z GFS VERIFYING AT 18Z APPEARS             
TO HAVE A BETTER HANDLE THAN THE NAM/ETA ON THE CONFIGURATION OF THE            
HEAVY RAIN OVER EASTERN PA/NJ AND DE.                                           
THEREFORE...WE FOLLOWED THE 12Z GFS CLOSELY...ESPECIALLY FOR TIMING             
THIS NEXT SLUG OF HEAVY RAIN. GFS AND NAM/ETA ONLY GIVE THE REGION              
ANOTHER 1 INCH OF QPF THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.  WE ARE FAIRLY                
CONFIDENT THIS IN UNDERDONE...AS SURFACE OBS IN THE HEAVY RAIN TO               
OUR SOUTH ARE INDICATING HOURLY RAINFALL RATES OF 0.30 TO 0.40. IN              
ADDITION...12Z GFS HAS A POTENT 75 KT SE 850 MB JET ASSOCIATED WITH             
THIS HEAVY RAIN BAND.  SO WE BASICALLY INCREASED THE 12Z GFS QPF TO             
1.5 BASIN WIDE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...WITH ISOLATED 2.0 ACROSS            
THE FAVORED UPSLOPE REGIONS (EAST FACING WITH STRONG SE INFLOW) OF              
CT...RI...EAST SLOPES OF BERKS...WORCESTER HILLS AND INTO THE                   
MONADNOCKS.                                                                     
BULK OF THE HEAVY RAIN BEGINS TO TAPER OFF AFTER MIDNIGHT FROM                  
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST...AS MID LEVEL JET EXITS INTO THE GULF OF ME.            
AS FOR TEMPS...PREFER THE COOLER FWC NUMBERS AS THE WARM AIR WILL               
LIKELY BE DELAYED UNTIL THE SURFACE LOW MOVES NORTH OF OUR LATITUDE.            
MODELS SUGGEST THIS WILL HAPPEN LATE SUNDAY...HOWEVER IT COULD BE               
EVEN LATER AS SYSTEM IS VERTICALLY STACKED.  SO...EXPECT TEMPS TO               
HOLD IN THE COOL 40S SUNDAY...ALONG WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AROUND.              
LONG TERM (SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)...                                    
A VERTICALLY STACKED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRACK FROM INTERIOR               
PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND TO THE CANADIAN BORDER SUNDAY                  
NIGHT. LEFTOVER PRECIPITATION WILL GENERALLY FALL AS LIGHT RAIN                 
SHOWERS...THOUGH CRITICAL THICKNESSES WILL BECOME COLD ENOUGH                   
TO SUPPORT SOME WET SNOW MIXING IN MAINLY OVER THE INTERIOR HIGH                
TERRAIN BEFORE IT ENDS AROUND DAYBREAK. CLOUDS WILL LINGER MONDAY AS            
THE UPPER FLOW REMAINS CYCLONIC AND AS LAPSE RATES STEEPEN. LOW                 
LEVEL MOISTURE LEVELS WILL DRY OUT AS SURFACE WINDS INCREASE FROM               
THE WEST NORTHWEST DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE LAST SHORTWAVE                     
ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL SLIDE ACROSS EASTERN NEW               
ENGLAND TUESDAY MORNING. THIS WILL ALLOW ANTICYCLONIC FLOW TO DEVELOP           
DURING TUESDAY AFTERNOON. A DOWNSLOPING NORTHWEST FLOW SHOULD BOOST             
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 50S. SIMILAR DAYTIME                       
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE EXPERIENCED WEDNESDAY...THOUGH A WEAKER                  
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL ALLOW COOLING SEABREEZES TO DEVELOP NEAR THE             
COAST. HIGH CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AS               
THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEEPENS ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY.                    
EXTENDED MODEL GUIDANCE INCLUDING THE GFS AND UKMET HAVE BACKED OFF             
ON THE TIMING OF PRECIPITATION LATE NEXT WEEK. THE CURRENT LOW                  
PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE NORTHEAST WILL ACT TO SHUNT THE APPROACH OF            
THE NEXT SYSTEM LATE NEXT WEEK...WITH SLIGHTLY EXTENDED ANTICYCLONIC            
FLOW PERSISTING ACROSS THE REGION. IN ADDITION THE NEXT SYSTEM                  
DEVELOPS THE "CUTOFF" FASTER THAN ITS PREDECESSOR. THUS HAVE REMOVED            
MENTION OF PRECIPITATION WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND HAVE FOCUSED THE                   
STARTING TIME THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THIS APPEARS TO BE ANOTHER                    
POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL EVENT FOR AREA RIVERS AND STREAMS.             
THEREFORE WILL NEED TO MONITOR THIS EVENT CLOSELY IN FUTURE MODEL               
RUNS.                                                                           
AVIATION...                                                                     
LLWS UNTIL ABOUT 06-08Z...THEN LOW AND MID LEVEL JET EXITS INTO THE             
GULF OF ME.  WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS TONIGHT...WITH CONDITIONS                
IMPROVING TO MVFR SUNDAY.                                                       
MARINE...                                                                       
IN THE SHORT RANGE...MARGINAL SOUTHEAST GALES (34 KT)TONIGHT...THEN             
WINDS EASING TOWARD MORNING.  WINDS WILL REMAIN FROM THE SOUTHEAST              
SUN.                                                                            
IN THE LONGER TERM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SEAS WILL PERSIST MONDAY              
DUE TO LEFTOVER SOUTHERLY SWELL. SOUTHERLY SWELLS WILL REDEVELOP                
THURSDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER SYSTEM.                          
HYDROLOGY...                                                                    
FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES THROUGH SUNDAY. NEXT ROUND OF HEAVY RAIN TO               
YIELD AN ADDITIONAL 1 TO 2 INCHES OF QPF. THIS COMBINED WITH HEAVY              
RAIN FROM THIS MORNING...SNOW MELT ACROSS NORTHERN/CENTRAL NEW                  
ENGLAND AND INITIAL HIGH FLOWS WILL CONTINUE THE POTENTIAL OF                   
SIGNIFICANT SMALL STREAM AND MAIN STEM RIVER FLOODING. BELIEVE MOST             
OF REGION AT RISK...BUT ESPECIALLY SO CONNECTICUT RIVER BASIN WHERE             
ANTICIPATE MAY SEE HIGHER QPF VALUES (AN ADDITIONAL 2 INCHES                    
POSSIBLE). IN ADDITION...EXPECT WIDESPREAD STREET FLOODING AND                  
CONSIDERABLE BASEMENT FLOODING WITH HIGH WATER TABLES.                          
&&                                                                              
.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
CT...FLOOD WATCH FOR CTZ002>004 UNTIL 7 PM SUNDAY.                              
MA...FLOOD WATCH FOR MAZ002>021-026 UNTIL 7 PM SUNDAY.                          
  ...WIND ADVISORY FOR MAZ022>024 FROM 6 PM SATURDAY TO 7 AM SUNDAY.            
NH...FLOOD WATCH FOR NHZ011-012-015 UNTIL 7 PM SUNDAY.                          
RI...FLOOD WATCH FOR RIZ001>007 UNTIL 7 PM SUNDAY.                              
  ...WIND ADVISORY FOR RIZ008 FROM 6 PM SATURDAY TO 7 AM SUNDAY.                
MARINE...GALE WARNING TONIGHT ALL WATERS EXCEPT SCA BOSTON HARBOR.              
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHORT TERM...JWD/AED                                                            
AVIATION...JWD                                                                  
HYDROLOGY...JWD/DRV                                                             
</PRE></TT></td>   ma                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI                                     
740 PM EST SAT APR 2 2005                                                       
.UPDATE...                                                                      
LOOKING AT RADAR TRENDS FROM DTX 88D AND CANADIAN EXETER RADAR...IT             
APPEARS UNLIKELY THAT THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD WHICH HAS RETREATED              
EAST WILL BULGE BACK WEST INTO FORECAST AREA. THUS...A DRY REST OF              
TONIGHT THROUGHOUT. HAVE TWEAKED SKY GRIDS FOR CURRENT CLEARING                 
TRENDS AND LOWERED LAND WINDS SOMEWHAT TONIGHT AS WELL...AS CLEAR               
SKIES ALREADY SEEN DECOUPLING THE FLOW AND THUS LOWERING REPORTED               
WINDS. ZONE FORECAST PACKAGE WILL BE UPDATED SHORTLY.                           
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...ISSUED 655 PM EST SAT                                               
BARRING ANY UNEXPECTED WESTWARD BULGING OF PRECIPITATION SHIELD FROM            
EASTERN SYSTEM...AM NO LONGER EXPECTING ANY MORE PRECIPITATION OR               
NON VFR CEILINGS OVER TAF SITES THIS EVENING...AND THIS IS                      
ESPECIALLY SO THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT AND SUNDAY TIME FRAME AS DRY AIR            
AND SUBSIDENCE REIGN...NO RESTRICTION TO VISIBILITY EXPECTED                    
EITHER. EXPECT SLOW DROPPING OFF OF THE WINDS TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY              
GUSTINESS...AS CLEARING SKIES PROMOTE DECOUPLING/STABILIZATION AND              
INHIBIT MIXING. STILL BEING AFFECTED SUNDAY IN FAIRLY BRISK CYCLONIC            
FLOW AROUND EASTERN SYSTEM...THOUGH...AND DIURNAL HEATING WILL AGAIN            
DEEPEN MIXING LAYER AND PROMOTE GUSTINESS BY AFTERNOON.                         
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...ISSUED 355 PM EST SAT                        
12Z RAOBS/WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOW AN UPPER LOW MOVING THROUGH THE                 
TENNESSEE/OHIO VALLEYS...WITH THE SURFACE LOW REDEVELOPING ALONG THE            
MID ATLANTIC COAST. REGIONAL RADARS SHOW PERSISTENT PRECIP BAND                 
ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN ONTARIO...STILL BRUSHING THE FAR SOUTHEAST CWA.             
VIS SATELLITE SHOWS CLEARING UPSTREAM...WITH ONLY THINNING HIGH                 
CLOUDS ACROSS THE SAGINAW VALLEY.                                               
MAIN FOCUS FOR THE FIRST 24 HOURS WILL BE WITH INITIAL PRECIP. 18Z              
RUC IS A BIT SLOWER THAN THE 12Z/15Z RUNS TAKING THE BEST MID-LEVEL             
DEFORMATION THROUGH THE CWA...AND CONSEQUENTLY HOLD ON TO LIFT                  
ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHEAST CWA FOR LONGER. REGIONAL RADARS HAVE SHOWN             
A SLIGHT REORIENTATION WITH BETTER LIFT DEVELOPING FARTHER NORTH                
ACROSS ONTARIO AS THE VORT CENTER SWINGS BACK AROUND THE CUTOFF LOW.            
WILL HOLD ON TO CATEGORICAL POPS INTO THE EARLY EVENING ACROSS THE              
VERY FAR SOUTHEAST CWA...MAINLY MACOMB/ST CLAIR BASED ON RECENT                 
RADAR TRENDS. AS FAR A PRECIP TYPE...RECENT TAMDAR SOUNDINGS                    
CONTINUE TO SHOW FREEZING LEVELS GENERALLY 1.6-18.KFT ACROSS THE                
SOUTHEAST CWA. THERE HAVE BEEN MORE SNOW REPORTS...ESPECIALLY FROM              
THE PHN/YZR AREA...CORRESPONDING WITH STRONGER RADAR RETURNS/HEAVIER            
PRECIP RATES. WILL ALLOW FOR MORE SNOW ACROSS ST CLAIR COUNTY...AND             
KEEP IT JUST A CHANCE OF SNOW MIXED IN ACROSS MACOMB.                           
1000-850MB TRAJECTORIES SUPPORT A SLOWER CLEARING TREND...AT LEAST              
ACROSS THE EASTERN CWA. WITH CLOUD SHIELD ALREADY PRETTY THIN ACROSS            
THE NORTHWEST...SHOULD SEE CLEARING PRETTY EARLY IN THE TRI CITIES.             
ACTUALLY WILL START MIDLAND/BAY AS MOSTLY CLEAR. DEEPER MOISTURE                
WILL CONTINUE TO PULL EAST AS THE SYSTEM MOVE TO EASTERN                        
PENNSYLVANIA TONIGHT AND FURTHER WRAPS UP...ALLOWING THE CLEARING               
SKIES TO WORK THROUGH THE CWA. GRADIENT STAYS PRETTY STRONG THROUGH             
SUNDAY...WITH A PRETTY WELL MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER THROUGH THE NIGHT              
LEADING TO SOME CONTINUED GUSTINESS. NOT MUCH OF A TEMPERATURE                  
GRADIENT ACROSS THE STATE WITH LITTLE THERMAL ADVECTION BEHIND THIS             
SYSTEM...BUT WILL KEEP LOWS A COUPLE DEGREES COLDER ACROSS THE                  
SAGINAW VALLEY WITH EARLIER CLEARING.                                           
THERE SHOULD BE A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE ON SUNDAY. HOWEVER...BOTH               
NAM/GFS TRY TO BRING IN THE MID-LEVEL DECK FROM MINNESOTA. UPPER                
FLOW BECOMES MORE CONFLUENT ACROSS THE STATE BETWEEN SHORTWAVE RIDGE            
OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES AND LOW OVER THE NORTHEAST. THIS                   
MID/UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE MAY HAVE A DIFFICULT TIME MAKING IT THIS               
FAR EAST...BUT THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH CLOUDS AROUND FOR MOSTLY SUNNY            
AS OPPOSED TO PLAIN SUNNY SKIES. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW US MIXING              
UP TO 850MB...WHERE TEMPERATURES HOVER FROM -2C TO 0C. WITH GOOD                
APRIL INSOLATION...THIS SHOULD HELP US CLIMB BACK INTO THE 50S.                 
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...ISSUED 355 PM EST SAT                    
INITIAL PROBLEMS IN THE LONG TERM WILL BE JUST HOW MILD TO GO WITH              
TEMPERATURES AS CURRENT SYSTEM WORKS SLOWLY OFF TO THE NORTHEAST &              
WEST/NORTHWEST FLOW SETS IN BEHIND IT. THEREAFTER...SOUTHERLY FLOW              
GRADUALLY SETS UP AS NEXT WEATHER MAKER DIGS INTO THE OHIO VALLEY               
BY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.                                                      
MODELS ALL SHOW A VERY VIGOROUS UPPER LOW DEVELOPING IN THE AREA                
BY MID/LATE WEEK...BUT DIFFER RATHER SIGNIFICANTLY WITH EACH OTHER              
AND FROM RUN TO RUN. TREND...HOWEVER...SUGGESTS THAT AN EXTENDED                
PERIOD OF RAIN IS ON TAP DURING THE EXTENDED FORECAST...OR AT THE               
VERY LEAST...A 2 OR 3 DAY PERIOD IN WHICH VARIOUS "WAVES" OF RAIN               
AND EMBEDDED THUNDER...WILL ROTATE THROUGH THE AREA.                            
IN TERMS OF TEMPERATURES...WILL MAKE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO LAKESHORE              
TEMPERATURES ON DAYS IN WHICH AN ONSHORE FLOW SEEMS MORE LIKELY.                
NAMELY ON MONDAY AS LIGHT...NORTHWEST FLOW SHOULD BE DOMINATED BY               
LAKE BREEZE BY AFTERNOON. THEN...AS AFOREMENTIONED SYSTEM WRAPS                 
UP TO OUR SOUTHWEST...OVERALL SYNOPTIC FLOW WILL TEND TO A SOLID                
SOUTHEASTERLY DIRECTION. HENCE...WARMEST IN THE WEST CENTRAL CWA                
AND COLDEST OFF LAKE ERIE/LAKE HURON.                                           
TREND WILL BE FOR MILD WEATHER INTO THE WEDNESDAY AND PERHAPS                   
THURSDAY TIMEFRAME...DEPENDING ON JUST HOW/WHERE THIS UPPER LOW                 
PRESSURE SYSTEM EVOLVES. THEREAFTER...EXPECT A COOL DOWN FOR THE                
UPCOMING WEEKEND AS CORE OF SYSTEM (AND ASSOCIATED COLDER AIR)                  
DRIFTS THROUGH OR VERY NEAR THE AREA...AND COLDER AIR EVENTUALLY                
FUNNELS INTO THE GREAT LAKES FROM CANADA IN BEHIND THE SYSTEM.                  
WITH THIS IDEA OF COOLING INTO THE WEEKEND...WILL GO OPPOSITE OF                
THE CLIMATOLOGY INDUCED RISE IN MEX GUIDANCE FROM FRIDAY INTO                   
SATURDAY. AT BEST...WILL KEEP FRIDAY/SATURDAY VERY CLOSE TO THE                 
SAME...WITH A FEW DEGREE RISE BY SUNDAY.                                        
&&                                                                              
.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
.MI...NONE.                                                                     
.LAKE HURON...                                                                  
  GALE WARNING...FOR THE SOUTH HALF...THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING.                   
  GALE WARNING...FOR THE NEARSHORE WATERS EXCLUSIVE OF INNER SAGINAW            
  BAY...TONIGHT.                                                                
  SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...INNER SAGINAW BAY...TONIGHT.                           
.LAKE ST CLAIR...GALE WARNING...THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING.                         
.MI WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...GALE WARNING...TONIGHT.                               
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
DWD/BRAVENDER/DEG                                                               
</PRE></TT></td>   mi                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI                                     
655 PM EST SAT APR 2 2005                                                       
.AVIATION...                                                                    
BARRING ANY UNEXPECTED WESTWARD BULGING OF PRECIPITATION SHIELD FROM            
EASTERN SYSTEM...AM NO LONGER EXPECTING ANY MORE PRECIPITATION OR               
NON VFR CEILINGS OVER TAF SITES THIS EVENING...AND THIS IS                      
ESPECIALLY SO THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT AND SUNDAY TIME FRAME AS DRY AIR            
AND SUBSIDENCE REIGN...NO RESTRICTION TO VISIBILITY EXPECTED                    
EITHER. EXPECT SLOW DROPPING OFF OF THE WINDS TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY              
GUSTINESS...AS CLEARING SKIES PROMOTE DECOUPLING/STABILIZATION AND              
INHIBIT MIXING. STILL BEING AFFECTED SUNDAY IN FAIRLY BRISK CYCLONIC            
FLOW AROUND EASTERN SYSTEM...THOUGH...AND DIURNAL HEATING WILL AGAIN            
DEEPEN MIXING LAYER AND PROMOTE GUSTINESS BY AFTERNOON.                         
&&                                                                              
.UPDATE...ISSUED 555 PM EST SAT                                                 
UPDATE TO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES SECTION BELOW.                            
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...ISSUED 355 PM EST SAT                        
12Z RAOBS/WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOW AN UPPER LOW MOVING THROUGH THE                 
TENNESSEE/OHIO VALLEYS...WITH THE SURFACE LOW REDEVELOPING ALONG THE            
MID ATLANTIC COAST. REGIONAL RADARS SHOW PERSISTENT PRECIP BAND                 
ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN ONTARIO...STILL BRUSHING THE FAR SOUTHEAST CWA.             
VIS SATELLITE SHOWS CLEARING UPSTREAM...WITH ONLY THINNING HIGH                 
CLOUDS ACROSS THE SAGINAW VALLEY.                                               
MAIN FOCUS FOR THE FIRST 24 HOURS WILL BE WITH INITIAL PRECIP. 18Z              
RUC IS A BIT SLOWER THAN THE 12Z/15Z RUNS TAKING THE BEST MID-LEVEL             
DEFORMATION THROUGH THE CWA...AND CONSEQUENTLY HOLD ON TO LIFT                  
ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHEAST CWA FOR LONGER. REGIONAL RADARS HAVE SHOWN             
A SLIGHT REORIENTATION WITH BETTER LIFT DEVELOPING FARTHER NORTH                
ACROSS ONTARIO AS THE VORT CENTER SWINGS BACK AROUND THE CUTOFF LOW.            
WILL HOLD ON TO CATEGORICAL POPS INTO THE EARLY EVENING ACROSS THE              
VERY FAR SOUTHEAST CWA...MAINLY MACOMB/ST CLAIR BASED ON RECENT                 
RADAR TRENDS. AS FAR A PRECIP TYPE...RECENT TAMDAR SOUNDINGS                    
CONTINUE TO SHOW FREEZING LEVELS GENERALLY 1.6-18.KFT ACROSS THE                
SOUTHEAST CWA. THERE HAVE BEEN MORE SNOW REPORTS...ESPECIALLY FROM              
THE PHN/YZR AREA...CORRESPONDING WITH STRONGER RADAR RETURNS/HEAVIER            
PRECIP RATES. WILL ALLOW FOR MORE SNOW ACROSS ST CLAIR COUNTY...AND             
KEEP IT JUST A CHANCE OF SNOW MIXED IN ACROSS MACOMB.                           
1000-850MB TRAJECTORIES SUPPORT A SLOWER CLEARING TREND...AT LEAST              
ACROSS THE EASTERN CWA. WITH CLOUD SHIELD ALREADY PRETTY THIN ACROSS            
THE NORTHWEST...SHOULD SEE CLEARING PRETTY EARLY IN THE TRI CITIES.             
ACTUALLY WILL START MIDLAND/BAY AS MOSTLY CLEAR. DEEPER MOISTURE                
WILL CONTINUE TO PULL EAST AS THE SYSTEM MOVE TO EASTERN                        
PENNSYLVANIA TONIGHT AND FURTHER WRAPS UP...ALLOWING THE CLEARING               
SKIES TO WORK THROUGH THE CWA. GRADIENT STAYS PRETTY STRONG THROUGH             
SUNDAY...WITH A PRETTY WELL MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER THROUGH THE NIGHT              
LEADING TO SOME CONTINUED GUSTINESS. NOT MUCH OF A TEMPERATURE                  
GRADIENT ACROSS THE STATE WITH LITTLE THERMAL ADVECTION BEHIND THIS             
SYSTEM...BUT WILL KEEP LOWS A COUPLE DEGREES COLDER ACROSS THE                  
SAGINAW VALLEY WITH EARLIER CLEARING.                                           
THERE SHOULD BE A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE ON SUNDAY. HOWEVER...BOTH               
NAM/GFS TRY TO BRING IN THE MID-LEVEL DECK FROM MINNESOTA. UPPER                
FLOW BECOMES MORE CONFLUENT ACROSS THE STATE BETWEEN SHORTWAVE RIDGE            
OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES AND LOW OVER THE NORTHEAST. THIS                   
MID/UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE MAY HAVE A DIFFICULT TIME MAKING IT THIS               
FAR EAST...BUT THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH CLOUDS AROUND FOR MOSTLY SUNNY            
AS OPPOSED TO PLAIN SUNNY SKIES. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW US MIXING              
UP TO 850MB...WHERE TEMPERATURES HOVER FROM -2C TO 0C. WITH GOOD                
APRIL INSOLATION...THIS SHOULD HELP US CLIMB BACK INTO THE 50S.                 
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...ISSUED 355 PM EST SAT                    
INITIAL PROBLEMS IN THE LONG TERM WILL BE JUST HOW MILD TO GO WITH              
TEMPERATURES AS CURRENT SYSTEM WORKS SLOWLY OFF TO THE NORTHEAST &              
WEST/NORTHWEST FLOW SETS IN BEHIND IT. THEREAFTER...SOUTHERLY FLOW              
GRADUALLY SETS UP AS NEXT WEATHER MAKER DIGS INTO THE OHIO VALLEY               
BY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.                                                      
MODELS ALL SHOW A VERY VIGOROUS UPPER LOW DEVELOPING IN THE AREA                
BY MID/LATE WEEK...BUT DIFFER RATHER SIGNIFICANTLY WITH EACH OTHER              
AND FROM RUN TO RUN. TREND...HOWEVER...SUGGESTS THAT AN EXTENDED                
PERIOD OF RAIN IS ON TAP DURING THE EXTENDED FORECAST...OR AT THE               
VERY LEAST...A 2 OR 3 DAY PERIOD IN WHICH VARIOUS "WAVES" OF RAIN               
AND EMBEDDED THUNDER...WILL ROTATE THROUGH THE AREA.                            
IN TERMS OF TEMPERATURES...WILL MAKE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO LAKESHORE              
TEMPERATURES ON DAYS IN WHICH AN ONSHORE FLOW SEEMS MORE LIKELY.                
NAMELY ON MONDAY AS LIGHT...NORTHWEST FLOW SHOULD BE DOMINATED BY               
LAKE BREEZE BY AFTERNOON. THEN...AS AFOREMENTIONED SYSTEM WRAPS                 
UP TO OUR SOUTHWEST...OVERALL SYNOPTIC FLOW WILL TEND TO A SOLID                
SOUTHEASTERLY DIRECTION. HENCE...WARMEST IN THE WEST CENTRAL CWA                
AND COLDEST OFF LAKE ERIE/LAKE HURON.                                           
TREND WILL BE FOR MILD WEATHER INTO THE WEDNESDAY AND PERHAPS                   
THURSDAY TIMEFRAME...DEPENDING ON JUST HOW/WHERE THIS UPPER LOW                 
PRESSURE SYSTEM EVOLVES. THEREAFTER...EXPECT A COOL DOWN FOR THE                
UPCOMING WEEKEND AS CORE OF SYSTEM (AND ASSOCIATED COLDER AIR)                  
DRIFTS THROUGH OR VERY NEAR THE AREA...AND COLDER AIR EVENTUALLY                
FUNNELS INTO THE GREAT LAKES FROM CANADA IN BEHIND THE SYSTEM.                  
WITH THIS IDEA OF COOLING INTO THE WEEKEND...WILL GO OPPOSITE OF                
THE CLIMATOLOGY INDUCED RISE IN MEX GUIDANCE FROM FRIDAY INTO                   
SATURDAY. AT BEST...WILL KEEP FRIDAY/SATURDAY VERY CLOSE TO THE                 
SAME...WITH A FEW DEGREE RISE BY SUNDAY.                                        
&&                                                                              
.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
.MI...NONE.                                                                     
.LAKE HURON...                                                                  
  GALE WARNING...FOR THE SOUTH HALF...THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING.                   
  GALE WARNING...FOR THE NEARSHORE WATERS EXCLUSIVE OF INNER SAGINAW            
  BAY...TONIGHT.                                                                
  SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...INNER SAGINAW BAY...TONIGHT.                           
.LAKE ST CLAIR...GALE WARNING...THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING.                         
.MI WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...GALE WARNING...TONIGHT.                               
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
DWD/BRAVENDER/DEG                                                               
</PRE></TT></td>   mi                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI                                     
555 PM EST SAT APR 2 2005                                                       
.UPDATE...                                                                      
UPDATE TO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES SECTION BELOW.                            
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...ISSUED 355 PM EST SAT                        
12Z RAOBS/WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOW AN UPPER LOW MOVING THROUGH THE                 
TENNESSEE/OHIO VALLEYS...WITH THE SURFACE LOW REDEVELOPING ALONG THE            
MID ATLANTIC COAST. REGIONAL RADARS SHOW PERSISTENT PRECIP BAND                 
ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN ONTARIO...STILL BRUSHING THE FAR SOUTHEAST CWA.             
VIS SATELLITE SHOWS CLEARING UPSTREAM...WITH ONLY THINNING HIGH                 
CLOUDS ACROSS THE SAGINAW VALLEY.                                               
MAIN FOCUS FOR THE FIRST 24 HOURS WILL BE WITH INITIAL PRECIP. 18Z              
RUC IS A BIT SLOWER THAN THE 12Z/15Z RUNS TAKING THE BEST MID-LEVEL             
DEFORMATION THROUGH THE CWA...AND CONSEQUENTLY HOLD ON TO LIFT                  
ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHEAST CWA FOR LONGER. REGIONAL RADARS HAVE SHOWN             
A SLIGHT REORIENTATION WITH BETTER LIFT DEVELOPING FARTHER NORTH                
ACROSS ONTARIO AS THE VORT CENTER SWINGS BACK AROUND THE CUTOFF LOW.            
WILL HOLD ON TO CATEGORICAL POPS INTO THE EARLY EVENING ACROSS THE              
VERY FAR SOUTHEAST CWA...MAINLY MACOMB/ST CLAIR BASED ON RECENT                 
RADAR TRENDS. AS FAR A PRECIP TYPE...RECENT TAMDAR SOUNDINGS                    
CONTINUE TO SHOW FREEZING LEVELS GENERALLY 1.6-18.KFT ACROSS THE                
SOUTHEAST CWA. THERE HAVE BEEN MORE SNOW REPORTS...ESPECIALLY FROM              
THE PHN/YZR AREA...CORRESPONDING WITH STRONGER RADAR RETURNS/HEAVIER            
PRECIP RATES. WILL ALLOW FOR MORE SNOW ACROSS ST CLAIR COUNTY...AND             
KEEP IT JUST A CHANCE OF SNOW MIXED IN ACROSS MACOMB.                           
1000-850MB TRAJECTORIES SUPPORT A SLOWER CLEARING TREND...AT LEAST              
ACROSS THE EASTERN CWA. WITH CLOUD SHIELD ALREADY PRETTY THIN ACROSS            
THE NORTHWEST...SHOULD SEE CLEARING PRETTY EARLY IN THE TRI CITIES.             
ACTUALLY WILL START MIDLAND/BAY AS MOSTLY CLEAR. DEEPER MOISTURE                
WILL CONTINUE TO PULL EAST AS THE SYSTEM MOVE TO EASTERN                        
PENNSYLVANIA TONIGHT AND FURTHER WRAPS UP...ALLOWING THE CLEARING               
SKIES TO WORK THROUGH THE CWA. GRADIENT STAYS PRETTY STRONG THROUGH             
SUNDAY...WITH A PRETTY WELL MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER THROUGH THE NIGHT              
LEADING TO SOME CONTINUED GUSTINESS. NOT MUCH OF A TEMPERATURE                  
GRADIENT ACROSS THE STATE WITH LITTLE THERMAL ADVECTION BEHIND THIS             
SYSTEM...BUT WILL KEEP LOWS A COUPLE DEGREES COLDER ACROSS THE                  
SAGINAW VALLEY WITH EARLIER CLEARING.                                           
THERE SHOULD BE A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE ON SUNDAY. HOWEVER...BOTH               
NAM/GFS TRY TO BRING IN THE MID-LEVEL DECK FROM MINNESOTA. UPPER                
FLOW BECOMES MORE CONFLUENT ACROSS THE STATE BETWEEN SHORTWAVE RIDGE            
OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES AND LOW OVER THE NORTHEAST. THIS                   
MID/UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE MAY HAVE A DIFFICULT TIME MAKING IT THIS               
FAR EAST...BUT THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH CLOUDS AROUND FOR MOSTLY SUNNY            
AS OPPOSED TO PLAIN SUNNY SKIES. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW US MIXING              
UP TO 850MB...WHERE TEMPERATURES HOVER FROM -2C TO 0C. WITH GOOD                
APRIL INSOLATION...THIS SHOULD HELP US CLIMB BACK INTO THE 50S.                 
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...ISSUED 355 PM EST SAT                    
INITIAL PROBLEMS IN THE LONG TERM WILL BE JUST HOW MILD TO GO WITH              
TEMPERATURES AS CURRENT SYSTEM WORKS SLOWLY OFF TO THE NORTHEAST &              
WEST/NORTHWEST FLOW SETS IN BEHIND IT. THEREAFTER...SOUTHERLY FLOW              
GRADUALLY SETS UP AS NEXT WEATHER MAKER DIGS INTO THE OHIO VALLEY               
BY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.                                                      
MODELS ALL SHOW A VERY VIGOROUS UPPER LOW DEVELOPING IN THE AREA                
BY MID/LATE WEEK...BUT DIFFER RATHER SIGNIFICANTLY WITH EACH OTHER              
AND FROM RUN TO RUN. TREND...HOWEVER...SUGGESTS THAT AN EXTENDED                
PERIOD OF RAIN IS ON TAP DURING THE EXTENDED FORECAST...OR AT THE               
VERY LEAST...A 2 OR 3 DAY PERIOD IN WHICH VARIOUS "WAVES" OF RAIN               
AND EMBEDDED THUNDER...WILL ROTATE THROUGH THE AREA.                            
IN TERMS OF TEMPERATURES...WILL MAKE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO LAKESHORE              
TEMPERATURES ON DAYS IN WHICH AN ONSHORE FLOW SEEMS MORE LIKELY.                
NAMELY ON MONDAY AS LIGHT...NORTHWEST FLOW SHOULD BE DOMINATED BY               
LAKE BREEZE BY AFTERNOON. THEN...AS AFOREMENTIONED SYSTEM WRAPS                 
UP TO OUR SOUTHWEST...OVERALL SYNOPTIC FLOW WILL TEND TO A SOLID                
SOUTHEASTERLY DIRECTION. HENCE...WARMEST IN THE WEST CENTRAL CWA                
AND COLDEST OFF LAKE ERIE/LAKE HURON.                                           
TREND WILL BE FOR MILD WEATHER INTO THE WEDNESDAY AND PERHAPS                   
THURSDAY TIMEFRAME...DEPENDING ON JUST HOW/WHERE THIS UPPER LOW                 
PRESSURE SYSTEM EVOLVES. THEREAFTER...EXPECT A COOL DOWN FOR THE                
UPCOMING WEEKEND AS CORE OF SYSTEM (AND ASSOCIATED COLDER AIR)                  
DRIFTS THROUGH OR VERY NEAR THE AREA...AND COLDER AIR EVENTUALLY                
FUNNELS INTO THE GREAT LAKES FROM CANADA IN BEHIND THE SYSTEM.                  
WITH THIS IDEA OF COOLING INTO THE WEEKEND...WILL GO OPPOSITE OF                
THE CLIMATOLOGY INDUCED RISE IN MEX GUIDANCE FROM FRIDAY INTO                   
SATURDAY. AT BEST...WILL KEEP FRIDAY/SATURDAY VERY CLOSE TO THE                 
SAME...WITH A FEW DEGREE RISE BY SUNDAY.                                        
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...ISSUED 1255 PM EST SAT                                              
DTX RADAR SHOWS LIGHT PRECIP CONTINUING ACROSS FAR SOUTHEAST                    
MICHIGAN...AFFECTING DTW/DET WITH MVFR CIGS/VFR VIS. SOME SCALE                 
CONTRACTION APPARENT ON RADAR VICINITY OF THE ST CLAIR RIVER...WITH             
YZR/SARNIA DOWN TO 3/4SM IN SNOW FOR A BRIEF PERIOD AROUND 17Z. PHN             
ALSO REPORTED MVFR/SNOW FOR A WHILE...BUT IS NOW BACK TO VFR/RAIN.              
WILL KEEP A PREDOMINATE LIGHT RAIN WITH NO VIS RESTRICTION AT                   
DTW/DET...BUT ALSO MENTION A FEW HOUR TEMPO OF MIXED RAIN/SNOW AT               
DET GIVEN ITS PROXIMITY TO THIS MORE CONCENTRATED BAND. OTHERWISE               
THE REMAINING QUESTION IS WITH CLOUDS AND WINDS. 1000-850MB                     
STREAMLINES SHOW WINDS REMAINING OUT OF THE NORTH/NORTHEAST THROUGH             
00Z ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN...WHICH WILL KEEP THE LOW                 
CLOUD DECK ACROSS THE AREA FOR LONGER. WILL KEEP MVFR CIGS AT FNT               
FOR AT LEAST A FEW MORE HOURS...FINALLY SCATTERED THEM OUT TOWARD               
00Z ONCE WINDS BACK MORE NORTHWEST. SIMILAR STORY AT DTW/DET...JUST             
DELAYED UNTIL LATE EVENING. WINDS WILL DIMINISH A BIT THIS                      
EVENING...BUT FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW THE BOUNDARY LAYER REMAINING              
WELL MIXED /ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST/...SO WILL KEEP RATHER              
GUSTY WINDS GOING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL ALSO LIMITED THE             
NON-CONVECTIVE LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR POTENTIAL WITH THE STRONG                   
LOW-LEVEL JET. DTX VWP AND TAMDAR PROFILES SHOW A SOLID 60KT JET                
ACROSS SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN...AND WHILE THE 12Z NAM/15Z RUC SHIFT THIS            
JET TO THE EAST...BOTH STILL SHOW 50KTS AT 850MB THROUGH MUCH OF THE            
NIGHT.                                                                          
&&                                                                              
.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
.MI...NONE.                                                                     
.LAKE HURON...                                                                  
  GALE WARNING...FOR THE SOUTH HALF...THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING.                   
  GALE WARNING...FOR THE NEARSHORE WATERS EXCLUSIVE OF INNER SAGINAW            
  BAY...TONIGHT.                                                                
  SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...INNER SAGINAW BAY...TONIGHT.                           
.LAKE ST CLAIR...GALE WARNING...THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING.                         
.MI WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...GALE WARNING...TONIGHT.                               
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
DWD/BRAVENDER/DEG                                                               
</PRE></TT></td>   mi                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI                                     
355 PM EST SAT APR 2 2005                                                       
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND SUNDAY                                                
12Z RAOBS/WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOW AN UPPER LOW MOVING THROUGH THE                 
TENNESSEE/OHIO VALLEYS...WITH THE SURFACE LOW REDEVELOPING ALONG THE            
MID ATLANTIC COAST. REGIONAL RADARS SHOW PERSISTENT PRECIP BAND                 
ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN ONTARIO...STILL BRUSHING THE FAR SOUTHEAST CWA.             
VIS SATELLITE SHOWS CLEARING UPSTREAM...WITH ONLY THINNING HIGH                 
CLOUDS ACROSS THE SAGINAW VALLEY.                                               
MAIN FOCUS FOR THE FIRST 24 HOURS WILL BE WITH INITIAL PRECIP. 18Z              
RUC IS A BIT SLOWER THAN THE 12Z/15Z RUNS TAKING THE BEST MID-LEVEL             
DEFORMATION THROUGH THE CWA...AND CONSEQUENTLY HOLD ON TO LIFT                  
ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHEAST CWA FOR LONGER. REGIONAL RADARS HAVE SHOWN             
A SLIGHT REORIENTATION WITH BETTER LIFT DEVELOPING FARTHER NORTH                
ACROSS ONTARIO AS THE VORT CENTER SWINGS BACK AROUND THE CUTOFF LOW.            
WILL HOLD ON TO CATEGORICAL POPS INTO THE EARLY EVENING ACROSS THE              
VERY FAR SOUTHEAST CWA...MAINLY MACOMB/ST CLAIR BASED ON RECENT                 
RADAR TRENDS. AS FAR A PRECIP TYPE...RECENT TAMDAR SOUNDINGS                    
CONTINUE TO SHOW FREEZING LEVELS GENERALLY 1.6-18.KFT ACROSS THE                
SOUTHEAST CWA. THERE HAVE BEEN MORE SNOW REPORTS...ESPECIALLY FROM              
THE PHN/YZR AREA...CORRESPONDING WITH STRONGER RADAR RETURNS/HEAVIER            
PRECIP RATES. WILL ALLOW FOR MORE SNOW ACROSS ST CLAIR COUNTY...AND             
KEEP IT JUST A CHANCE OF SNOW MIXED IN ACROSS MACOMB.                           
1000-850MB TRAJECTORIES SUPPORT A SLOWER CLEARING TREND...AT LEAST              
ACROSS THE EASTERN CWA. WITH CLOUD SHIELD ALREADY PRETTY THIN ACROSS            
THE NORTHWEST...SHOULD SEE CLEARING PRETTY EARLY IN THE TRI CITIES.             
ACTUALLY WILL START MIDLAND/BAY AS MOSTLY CLEAR. DEEPER MOISTURE                
WILL CONTINUE TO PULL EAST AS THE SYSTEM MOVE TO EASTERN                        
PENNSYLVANIA TONIGHT AND FURTHER WRAPS UP...ALLOWING THE CLEARING               
SKIES TO WORK THROUGH THE CWA. GRADIENT STAYS PRETTY STRONG THROUGH             
SUNDAY...WITH A PRETTY WELL MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER THROUGH THE NIGHT              
LEADING TO SOME CONTINUED GUSTINESS. NOT MUCH OF A TEMPERATURE                  
GRADIENT ACROSS THE STATE WITH LITTLE THERMAL ADVECTION BEHIND THIS             
SYSTEM...BUT WILL KEEP LOWS A COUPLE DEGREES COLDER ACROSS THE                  
SAGINAW VALLEY WITH EARLIER CLEARING.                                           
THERE SHOULD BE A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE ON SUNDAY. HOWEVER...BOTH               
NAM/GFS TRY TO BRING IN THE MID-LEVEL DECK FROM MINNESOTA. UPPER                
FLOW BECOMES MORE CONFLUENT ACROSS THE STATE BETWEEN SHORTWAVE RIDGE            
OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES AND LOW OVER THE NORTHEAST. THIS                   
MID/UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE MAY HAVE A DIFFICULT TIME MAKING IT THIS               
FAR EAST...BUT THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH CLOUDS AROUND FOR MOSTLY SUNNY            
AS OPPOSED TO PLAIN SUNNY SKIES. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW US MIXING              
UP TO 850MB...WHERE TEMPERATURES HOVER FROM -2C TO 0C. WITH GOOD                
APRIL INSOLATION...THIS SHOULD HELP US CLIMB BACK INTO THE 50S.                 
.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY                                            
INITIAL PROBLEMS IN THE LONG TERM WILL BE JUST HOW MILD TO GO WITH              
TEMPERATURES AS CURRENT SYSTEM WORKS SLOWLY OFF TO THE NORTHEAST &              
WEST/NORTHWEST FLOW SETS IN BEHIND IT. THEREAFTER...SOUTHERLY FLOW              
GRADUALLY SETS UP AS NEXT WEATHER MAKER DIGS INTO THE OHIO VALLEY               
BY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.                                                      
MODELS ALL SHOW A VERY VIGOROUS UPPER LOW DEVELOPING IN THE AREA                
BY MID/LATE WEEK...BUT DIFFER RATHER SIGNIFICANTLY WITH EACH OTHER              
AND FROM RUN TO RUN. TREND...HOWEVER...SUGGESTS THAT AN EXTENDED                
PERIOD OF RAIN IS ON TAP DURING THE EXTENDED FORECAST...OR AT THE               
VERY LEAST...A 2 OR 3 DAY PERIOD IN WHICH VARIOUS "WAVES" OF RAIN               
AND EMBEDDED THUNDER...WILL ROTATE THROUGH THE AREA.                            
IN TERMS OF TEMPERATURES...WILL MAKE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO LAKESHORE              
TEMPERATURES ON DAYS IN WHICH AN ONSHORE FLOW SEEMS MORE LIKELY.                
NAMELY ON MONDAY AS LIGHT...NORTHWEST FLOW SHOULD BE DOMINATED BY               
LAKE BREEZE BY AFTERNOON. THEN...AS AFOREMENTIONED SYSTEM WRAPS                 
UP TO OUR SOUTHWEST...OVERALL SYNOPTIC FLOW WILL TEND TO A SOLID                
SOUTHEASTERLY DIRECTION. HENCE...WARMEST IN THE WEST CENTRAL CWA                
AND COLDEST OFF LAKE ERIE/LAKE HURON.                                           
TREND WILL BE FOR MILD WEATHER INTO THE WEDNESDAY AND PERHAPS                   
THURSDAY TIMEFRAME...DEPENDING ON JUST HOW/WHERE THIS UPPER LOW                 
PRESSURE SYSTEM EVOLVES. THEREAFTER...EXPECT A COOL DOWN FOR THE                
UPCOMING WEEKEND AS CORE OF SYSTEM (AND ASSOCIATED COLDER AIR)                  
DRIFTS THROUGH OR VERY NEAR THE AREA...AND COLDER AIR EVENTUALLY                
FUNNELS INTO THE GREAT LAKES FROM CANADA IN BEHIND THE SYSTEM.                  
WITH THIS IDEA OF COOLING INTO THE WEEKEND...WILL GO OPPOSITE OF                
THE CLIMATOLOGY INDUCED RISE IN MEX GUIDANCE FROM FRIDAY INTO                   
SATURDAY. AT BEST...WILL KEEP FRIDAY/SATURDAY VERY CLOSE TO THE                 
SAME...WITH A FEW DEGREE RISE BY SUNDAY.                                        
&&                                                                              
.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
.MI...NONE.                                                                     
.LAKE HURON...                                                                  
  GALE WARNING...FOR THE SOUTH HALF...THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING.                   
  GALE WARNING...FOR THE NEARSHORE WATERS...TONIGHT                             
.LAKE ST CLAIR...GALE WARNING...THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING.                         
.MI WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...GALE WARNING...TONIGHT                                
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
BRAVENDER/DEG                                                                   
</PRE></TT></td>   mi                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
330 PM EST SAT APR 2 2005                                                       
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
12Z RAOBS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW HI AMPLITUDE BUT              
SHORT WAVELENGTH UPR TROF OVER THE ERN CONUS BTWN RDG OVER THE                  
PLAINS AND IN THE WRN ATLANTIC. DEEPENING SFC LO OVER THE CENTRAL               
APPALACHIANS UNDER THE CUTOFF H5 LO IN THE OH VALLEY THAT IS                    
EMBEDDED WITHIN THE UPR TROF. FA DOMINATED BY DRY NNE FLOW BTWN THE             
SFC LO AND SFC RDG AXIS STRETCHING FM NW ONTARIO ACRS WRN LK SUP AND            
INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. 12Z MPX/INL SDNGS ARE BONE DRY BLO SOME UPR            
MSTR ABV H5. SERIES OF SHRTWVS OVER SCNTRL CAN ARE CRASHING ACRS THE            
TOP OF THE PLAINS RDG. LEADING EDGE OF COMMA TAIL MID/HI CLD                    
STRETCHING S FM LEAD SHRTWV/SFC LO NW OF LK WINNIPEG IS NOW MOVING              
THRU MN AND APRCHG WRN LK SUP WELL IN ADVANCE OF ATTENDANT SFC TROF             
IN THE NRN PLAINS. BUT NO PCPN OR EVEN LOWER CLD NOTED AS 12Z BIS               
SDNG IS VERY DRY BLO HIER MSTR ABV H6 DESPITE 12HR H5 HGT FALLS ARND            
100M. MORE SHRTWVS APRCHG THE PAC NW COAST.                                     
MAIN FCST CONCERNS INTO TUE ARE TEMPS. FOCUS THEN SHIFTS TO TIMING/             
IMPACT OF SHRTVS NOW APRCHG THE PAC NW COAST.                                   
FOR TNGT...UPR RDG HELD IN PLACE BY DEEPENING DOWNSTREAM LO OVER THE            
APPALACHIANS FCST TO BE BATTERED DOWN A BIT BY SCNTRL CNDN SHRTWV               
THAT MOVES INTO HUDSON BAY BY 12Z. SFC TROF FCST TO REACH THE WRN               
ZNS TOWARD 12Z. BAND OF DPVA/HIER MID-HI LVL RH IN ADVANCE OF THE               
FCST TO MOVE INTO THE FA THIS EVNG...BUT THEN LIFT MORE TO THE N                
INTO ONTARIO AS DOWNSTREAM BLOCK HOLDS FIRM AND MAINTAINS DRY                   
AIRMASS IN PLACE OVER THE UPR GRT LKS. EXPECT LOWEST MIN TEMPS BLO              
MOS GUIDANCE OVER THE INTERIOR ECNTRL CWA WHERE SGNFT HIER LVL RH               
AND AC/CI WL HAVE A HARDER TIME REACHING AND SFC RDG AXIS/LIGHTER               
WINDS HOLD IN PLACE. SINCE FOG FORMED THIS MRNG UNDER THE RDG                   
AXIS...CONSIDERED ADDED PTCHY FOG TNGT OVER THESE COLDER INTERIOR               
ECNTRL PLACES. BUT AIRMASS APPEARS TOO DRY THIS AFTN...SO LEFT IT               
OUT.                                                                            
QUIET DAY ON TAP FOR SUN AS BLDG HI PRES IN NW ONTARIO IN THE WAKE              
OF SHRTWV LIFTING NEWD THRU HUDSON BAY MERGES WITH RDG IN PLACE OVER            
THE UPR LKS W OF DEEPENING NE LO. ALTHOUGH LLVL FLOW SHIFTS MORE NNW            
LATER IN THE DAY IN RESPONSE TO RISING MSLP IN NW ONTARIO...LLVL                
FLOW WLY ENUF IN THE MRNG WHEN THERMAL RDG ASSOCIATED WITH WEAKENING            
SFC TROF OVHD WL MEAN MINIMAL LK MODERATION FOR MUCH OF THE DAY                 
(EXCEPT OVER THE W) AND A MUCH WARMER AFTN THAN TDAY. MIXING TO                 
H75-8 ON PREFERRED GFS FCST SDNGS YIELDS TMAX APRCHG 57 OVER                    
INTERIOR LOCATIONS. THE INTENSE SFC HTG AND TREND FOR HIER PRES TO              
THE NW SHOULD DVLP A HEALTHY LK BREEZE LATER IN THE AFTN OFF OF LK              
SUP. GFS LLVL MSTR DOES APPEAR TO BE TOO GENEROUS...PREFER DRIER ETA            
SOLN THAT SUPPORTS ONLY SCT DIURNAL CU AFTER LINGERING AC DRIES OUT             
IN THE MRNG.                                                                    
DRY HI PRES RDG FCST TO BLD INTO THE UPR GRT LKS SUN NGT/MON...                 
BRINGING MORE TRANQUIL WX. ALTHOUGH PWAT FCST TO FALL BLO 0.25 INCH             
SUN NGT...NLY H925 WIND MAY MAINTAIN ENUF MIXING TO PREVENT TEMP FM             
FALLING TO DWPT. WL STILL GO BLO MOS GUIDANCE FOR INTERIOR LOCATIONS            
OVER THE WCNTRL ZNS SHELTERED FM NNE WIND AND WHERE PRES GRADIENT               
FCST TO BE A BIT MORE SLACK. AS HI PRES RDG AXIS SHIFTS JUST E OF               
THE FA ON MON...LLVL FLOW IS FCST TO BECOME MORE ESE...INCRSG LK                
MODERATION DOWNWIND OF LK MI AND FM MQT-KEWEENAW. H85 TEMPS FCST TO             
REACH ARND 6C AT IWD BY LATE IN THE DAY...WHERE DOWNSLOPING ESE FLOW            
WL ACCENTUATE WRMG. EXPECT SOME HI CLD TO DRIFT OVER UPR RDG AXIS               
INTO THE WRN FA IN THE AFTN...OTRW DRY LLVLS SHOULD INHIBIT                     
FORMATION OF MUCH MORE THAN A FEW CU. MIXING TO JUST H85 YIELDS TMAX            
APRCHG 65 AT IWD WELL ABV MOS GUIDANCE...RSNBL CONSIDERING                      
DOWNSLOPING FLOW. TEMPS GENERALLY AOA MOS GUIDANCE...WHICH HAS BEEN             
RUNNING TOO LO RECENTLY ESPECIALLY IN DRIER AIRMASSES.                          
RETURN SLY FLOW/ISENTROPIC LIFT BTWN SLOWLY RETREATING HI PRES                  
RDG/FALLING PRES IN THE PLAINS ASSOCIATED WITH DEEPENING WRN TROF               
BEGINS TO SET UP MON NGT. GFS EVEN GENERATES SOME PCPN OVER THE W               
HALF OF FA AS H85 WARM FNT APRCHS TOWARD 12Z TUE AND H85-5 LAPSE                
RATES INCRS TO ARND 7.5C/KM (H85 TEMP FCST NR 11C AT IWD). BUT H85              
DWPT FCST ONLY TO ARND 5-6C...AND EVEN MOISTER GFS SHOWS A DRY LYR              
LINGERING BLO HIER MID LVL MSTR SO THAT THERE WOULD LTL IF ANY                  
POSITIVE AREA ON THE SDNG EVEN WITH ENVIRONMENTAL LAPSE RATE GREATER            
THAN MOIST ADIABATIC. CONSIDERING GFS WET BIAS AND DRY ANTECEDENT               
AIRMASS...WL HOLD OFF ON MENTIONING ANY PCPN ATTM...JUST SOME INCRSG            
MID/HI LVL CLD. THICKENING MID/HI CLD AND STEADY SE WIND WL PREVENT             
A SGNFT DIURNAL TEMP DROP...ESPECIALLY AT IWD-ONTONAGON.                        
QUITE A BIT OF MODEL UNCERTAINTY IN REGARDS TO STORM SYS THAT MAY               
IMPACT UPR GRT LKS IN THE MID WEEK...ESPECIALLY THE DETAILS OF THE              
INTERACTION BTWN THE NRN AND SRN BRANCHES. ECMWF HAS BEEN VERY                  
INCONSISTENT ON HANDLING THIS INTERACTION...AND THE 00Z RUN TRENDED             
TOWARD MORE EMPHASIS ON A SINGLE SRN STORM THAT WOULD ACTUALLY BE               
TOO FAR S FOR MUCH PCPN IN THE CWA. 00Z UKMET/GFS/CNDN ON THE OTHER             
HAND SHOW SEPARATE NRN BRANCH SHRTWV PUSHING A COLD FNT ACRS THE FA             
ON WED...THEN PHASING WITH THE SRN BRANCH TO DVLP A DEEP LO NOT FAR             
TO THE SE THAT WOULD ENVELOP FA IN DEEP CYC FLOW. 12Z GUIDANCE HAS              
CONTINUED TREND TOWARD A BIT SLOWER ARRIVAL OF PCPN ON TUE WITH DRY             
SE TRAJECTORIES OUT OF HI TO THE E HELD IN PLACE BY DOWNSTREAM                  
BLOCKING LO...BUT ALSO WITH THE RANGE OF PSBL INTERACTIONS BTWN THE             
BRANCHES. 00Z CNDN/GFS ENSEMBLE FCSTS HINT THAT ALL THESE SOLNS ARE             
ENSEMBLE MEMBERS AND PSBL OUTCOMES. ONE NOTE OF AGREEMENT...MODELS              
HAVE TRENDED SLOWER WITH EWD PROGRESSION OF THIS SYS...WHICH MAKE               
SENSE CONSIDERING BLOCKING PATTERN THAT WL BE DVLPG OVER THE                    
ATLANTIC OCEAN. HAVE OPTED TO FOLLOW CLOSE TO NCEP MANUAL                       
GUIDANCE...WHICH PICKS UP ON THE SLOWER MODEL TREND AND PHASING OF              
BRANCHES. FCST WL BE DRY ON TUE EXCEPT FOR LO CHC POPS LATE IN THE              
DAY NR THE WI BORDER...CHC POPS FOR RA ON WED/EARLY THU...THEN A CHC            
OF RASN LATE THU/ FRI AS CYC FLOW DRAWS COLDER AIR INTO THE UPR GRT             
LKS. THEN FINALLY DRY ON SAT WITH BLDG HI PRES IN SCNTRL CAN.                   
COORDINATED WITH GRB/APX/DLH.                                                   
&&                                                                              
.MQT...WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
KC                                                                              
</PRE></TT></td>   mi                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI                                     
1255 PM EST SAT APR 2 2005                                                      
.AVIATION...                                                                    
DTX RADAR SHOWS LIGHT PRECIP CONTINUING ACROSS FAR SOUTHEAST                    
MICHIGAN...AFFECTING DTW/DET WITH MVFR CIGS/VFR VIS. SOME SCALE                 
CONTRACTION APPARENT ON RADAR VICINITY OF THE ST CLAIR RIVER...WITH             
YZR/SARNIA DOWN TO 3/4SM IN SNOW FOR A BRIEF PERIOD AROUND 17Z. PHN             
ALSO REPORTED MVFR/SNOW FOR A WHILE...BUT IS NOW BACK TO VFR/RAIN.              
WILL KEEP A PREDOMINATE LIGHT RAIN WITH NO VIS RESTRICTION AT                   
DTW/DET...BUT ALSO MENTION A FEW HOUR TEMPO OF MIXED RAIN/SNOW AT               
DET GIVEN ITS PROXIMITY TO THIS MORE CONCENTRATED BAND. OTHERWISE               
THE REMAINING QUESTION IS WITH CLOUDS AND WINDS. 1000-850MB                     
STREAMLINES SHOW WINDS REMAINING OUT OF THE NORTH/NORTHEAST THROUGH             
00Z ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN...WHICH WILL KEEP THE LOW                 
CLOUD DECK ACROSS THE AREA FOR LONGER. WILL KEEP MVFR CIGS AT FNT               
FOR AT LEAST A FEW MORE HOURS...FINALLY SCATTERED THEM OUT TOWARD               
00Z ONCE WINDS BACK MORE NORTHWEST. SIMILAR STORY AT DTW/DET...JUST             
DELAYED UNTIL LATE EVENING. WINDS WILL DIMINISH A BIT THIS                      
EVENING...BUT FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW THE BOUNDARY LAYER REMAINING              
WELL MIXED /ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST/...SO WILL KEEP RATHER              
GUSTY WINDS GOING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL ALSO LIMITED THE             
NON-CONVECTIVE LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR POTENTIAL WITH THE STRONG                   
LOW-LEVEL JET. DTX VWP AND TAMDAR PROFILES SHOW A SOLID 60KT JET                
ACROSS SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN...AND WHILE THE 12Z NAM/15Z RUC SHIFT THIS            
JET TO THE EAST...BOTH STILL SHOW 50KTS AT 850MB THROUGH MUCH OF THE            
NIGHT.                                                                          
&&                                                                              
.UPDATE...1030 AM EST SAT APR 2 2005                                            
REGIONAL RADARS/METARS SHOW PRECIP CONTINUING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST              
CWA...IN AN AREA OF PERSISTENT MID-LEVEL DEFORMATION INDICATED BY               
THE 12Z RUC. THIS AREA OF LIFT SHOULD CONTINUE ACROSS SOUTHEAST                 
MICHIGAN THROUGH 18Z...BEFORE SHIFTING DOWNSTREAM AS THE UPPER LOW              
BEGINS TO PULL EAST FASTER AS THE TWO VORT CENTERS MERGE AND HELP TO            
PULL IT ALONG. OBSERVATIONS HAVE SHOWN PRECIP TO BE MAINLY RAIN...              
WITH ONLY A FEW REPORTS OF UP OR RASN. 12Z DTX RAOB SHOWS FREEZING              
LEVEL/WET-BULB ZERO HEIGHTS AROUND 1.1KFT AGL. TAMDAR SOUNDINGS FROM            
FLIGHT PATHS FARTHER SOUTH AND EAST OF THE OFFICE ARE A BIT                     
HIGHER...GENERALLY 1.3-1.6KFT AGL. GIVEN THE STRONG GRADIENT/WELL               
MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER AND LIMITED THERMAL ADVECTION...THIS RELATIVELY            
THIN WARM LAYER HAS NOT ERODED THROUGH EVAPORATIVE COOLING OR                   
MELTING. EXPECT WE WILL CONTINUE TO HOVER RIGHT AROUND THE RAIN/SNOW            
THRESHOLD WITH THE NOD GOING TOWARD RAIN...AND WILL MAINTAIN THE                
CURRENT IDEA OF RAIN POSSIBLY MIXED WITH SNOW. WILL UPDATE TO TRIM              
BACK THE WEATHER GRIDS BASED ON LATEST RADAR TRENDS...BUT ALSO                  
MAINTAIN CATEGORICAL POPS ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHEAST FOR A BIT LONGER             
INTO THE AFTERNOON. SATELLITE/METARS SHOW PLENTY OF DRY AIR WORKING             
IN ACROSS THE NORTH AND WEST CWA...SO SHOULD BE ABLE TO KEEP A SHARP            
CUTOFF TO THE PRECIP.                                                           
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM...SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...ISSUED AT 321 AM                    
PRECIPITATION SHIELD AND COLDER CLOUD TOPS ON IR LOOP BEGINNING TO              
DRAW BACK TO THE WEST AS SURFACE LOW CONTINUES TO TRACK NORTHEAST               
INTO WEST VIRGINIA...AND THETA-E ADVECTION INCREASES ON THE NORTH               
SIDE OF THE LOW. ANTICIPATE PRECIPITATION TO STEADILY INCREASE OVER             
THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA THROUGH 15Z. NOT REAL IMPRESSED WITH                
DEFORMATION AXIS OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES AS IR LOOP CONTINUES              
TO SHOW CLOUD TOP WARMING OVER THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE STATE.                
MODELS SHOW THIS FEATURE ROTATING SOUTHEAST INTO THE CWA BETWEEN                
12-15Z AND 500 MB FGEN FIELD STRENGTHENING FOR A BRIEF TIME BETWEEN             
12-15Z. LOOKS LIKE THE MODELS MAY BE TO AGGRESSIVE WITH DEFORMATION             
AXIS AND 500 MB FGEN THOUGH.                                                    
FIRST SHORT TERM CONCERN WILL BE PRECIPITATION TYPE. MID LEVELS                 
CONTINUE TO BE COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW...HOWEVER IT SHOULD TAKE SEVERAL            
HOURS TO ERODE DEEP WARM LAYER BELOW 2500 FT. MODELS NOW SHOWING WET            
BULB TEMPERATURES ABOVE FREEZING FROM THE SURFACE THROUGH 2K FEET               
THROUGH 12Z...THEN SLOWLY ERODING BETWEEN 1K-2K FT THROUGH 18Z.                 
SURFACE DEW POINTS HAVE ALSO CLIMBED INTO THE MID 30S ACROSS THE                
SOUTHEAST PORTION OF THE CWA IN AREA OF ONGOING PRECIPITATION...SO              
LATENT HEAT RELEASE MAY ALREADY BE HAVING AN IMPACT. THERE WILL BE A            
FIGHT BETWEEN THE LATENT HEAT RELEASE AND COOLING DUE TO                        
MELTING...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHEAST PORTION OF THE CWA IN             
REGION OF HEAVIER PRECIPITATION. THERMAL FIELD REMAINS HOMOGENEOUS              
THOUGH SO WILL NOT HAVE TO CONTEND WITH MUCH WARM AIR ADVECTION. A              
COMPLICATING FACTOR WILL BE INCREASING NORTHEAST FLOW OFF OF THE                
COOLER LAKES...WHICH WILL ALSO HINDER BOUNDARY LAYER WARMING. SO ALL            
THINGS CONSIDER...EVEN WITH A DEEP WARM LAYER TO BEGIN                          
WITH...RAIN/SNOW MIX STILL LOOKS LIKE THE WAY TO GO AFTER                       
12Z...ESPECIALLY WITH THE HOMOGENEOUS THERMAL FIELD OVER THE CENTRAL            
GREAT LAKES. A THIS TIME WILL KEEP SNOW ACCUMULATIONS CONFINED TO               
LESS THAN AN INCH. THIS WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED CAREFULLY ACROSS THE            
FAR SOUTHEAST PORTION OF THE CWA THOUGH.                                        
MODELS SHOWING A BRIEF PERIOD OF INCREASING 850-700 MB FGEN DRAWING             
NORTHWEST INTO THE FAR SOUTHEAST PORTION OF THE CWA BETWEEN                     
12-15Z...SO ANTICIPATE THIS WILL BE THE TIME FRAME FOR MOST                     
SIGNIFICANT QPF AND POTENTIAL MIX WITH SNOW. UPPER JET DYNAMICS                 
ALREADY WELL EAST OF THE CWA...AND MODELS SHOW SOME JET COUPLING                
ALONG THE EAST COAST THIS AFTERNOON AND RAPID DEEPENING OF SURFACE              
LOW. CURRENT OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THIS IS ALREADY HAPPENING...WITH             
LOW ALREADY DOWN TO 994 OVER SOUTHERN WEST VIRGINIA. AS A RESULT                
NORTHEAST WINDS WILL INCREASE RAPIDLY ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES            
SO WILL NEED GALE WARNINGS FROM SOUTHERN LAKE HURON SOUTHWARD BY 18Z.           
MODEL DIFFERENCE ARE MINOR IN THE FIRST 24 HOURS...WITH THE NAM AND             
RUC VERY SIMILAR OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION...GFS APPEARS TO BE A              
LITTLE TO COLD WITH THE 850 MB THERMAL FIELD OVER                               
WISCONSIN...SHOWING A LARGE AREA OF -5C...WITH COLDEST OBS ONLY                 
-3C...NAM HAS DONE A MUCH BETTER JOB THERE...SO SHORT TERM FORECAST             
WILL LEAN MORE TOWARD A NAM SOLUTION. NAM QPF ALSO A LITTLE MORE                
ROBUST WITH QPF THROUGH 15Z...WHICH MATCHES UP BETTER WITH CURRENT 6            
HOUR QPF TOTALS OVER THE FAR EASTERN PORTION OF THE CWA AND POINTS              
EAST.                                                                           
ALTHOUGH MODELS STRIP PRECIPITATION OUT OF THE CWA QUICKLY THIS                 
EVENING...WILL CONTINUE WITH A MENTION OF CHANCE POPS EAST THROUGH              
06Z...DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN CYCLOGENESIS ALONG THE EAST COAST AND               
ASSOCIATED EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF LOW LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW.                     
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM...ISSUED AT 321 AM                                                   
AS THE STORM SLOWLY PULLS AWAY...THERE WILL STILL BE PLENTY OF WIND             
ON SUNDAY. AREA WILL BE MIXING UP TO 2K TO 4K FEET...WHICH WILL HELP            
BRING DOWN WIND GUSTS UP TO 35 KTS. SUNSHINE WILL HELP GET THE                  
MIXING GOING ON SUNDAY. ONLY SOME HI MOISTURE FROM THE DEPARTING                
SYSTEM ON SUNDAY TO GIVE THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA SOME CI. WITH              
THE STRONG NW WINDS...AND 80H TEMPS STILL AROUND 0C...WENT TOWARD               
THE COOLER NAM GUIDANCE NUMBERS...EVEN WITH PLENTY OF SUN.                      
AFTER SUNDAY...DRY AIR IS IN PLACE RIGHT UNTIL TUESDAY...BESIDES                
SOME CI AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM ON MONDAY NIGHT.  ENOUGH DRY AIR TO            
JUST GO WITH CLEAR AND SUNNY FORECAST SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. BY               
TUESDAY...MOISTURE POOLS ALONG THE WARM FRONT JUST SOUTH OF THE                 
STATE SO EXPECT SOME PARTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS.  JUST NOT ENOUGH                  
FORCING TO GET ANYTHING OTHER THAN CLOUDS WITH THE WARM FRONT.                  
THEN THE 00Z GFS IS SLOWER WITH THE NEXT SYSTEM...LEANING MUCH MORE             
TOWARD THE UKMET...ECMWF AND CANADIAN...WHICH IS WHAT WAS GOING IN              
THE FORECAST. SO NO REAL CHANGES FROM TUESDAY TO FRIDAY.  DID TWEAK             
HIGH TEMPERATURES THOUGH...JUST A BIT WARMER AHEAD OF THE FRONT FOR             
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...AND THEN A BIT COOLER BEHIND THE FRONT.                 
&&                                                                              
.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
.MI...NONE.                                                                     
.LAKE HURON...GALE WARNING...SOUTH HALF...THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON.             
.LAKE ST CLAIR...GALE WARNING...THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON.                       
.MI WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...GALE WARNING...THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON.              
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
BRAVENDER/GSS/RBP                                                               
</PRE></TT></td>   mi                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI                                     
1030 AM EST SAT APR 2 2005                                                      
.UPDATE...                                                                      
REGIONAL RADARS/METARS SHOW PRECIP CONTINUING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST              
CWA...IN AN AREA OF PERSISTENT MID-LEVEL DEFORMATION INDICATED BY               
THE 12Z RUC. THIS AREA OF LIFT SHOULD CONTINUE ACROSS SOUTHEAST                 
MICHIGAN THROUGH 18Z...BEFORE SHIFTING DOWNSTREAM AS THE UPPER LOW              
BEGINS TO PULL EAST FASTER AS THE TWO VORT CENTERS MERGE AND HELP TO            
PULL IT ALONG. OBSERVATIONS HAVE SHOWN PRECIP TO BE MAINLY RAIN...              
WITH ONLY A FEW REPORTS OF UP OR RASN. 12Z DTX RAOB SHOWS FREEZING              
LEVEL/WET-BULB ZERO HEIGHTS AROUND 1.1KFT AGL. TAMDAR SOUNDINGS FROM            
FLIGHT PATHS FARTHER SOUTH AND EAST OF THE OFFICE ARE A BIT                     
HIGHER...GENERALLY 1.3-1.6KFT AGL. GIVEN THE STRONG GRADIENT/WELL               
MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER AND LIMITED THERMAL ADVECTION...THIS RELATIVELY            
THIN WARM LAYER HAS NOT ERODED THROUGH EVAPORATIVE COOLING OR                   
MELTING. EXPECT WE WILL CONTINUE TO HOVER RIGHT AROUND THE RAIN/SNOW            
THRESHOLD WITH THE NOD GOING TOWARD RAIN...AND WILL MAINTAIN THE                
CURRENT IDEA OF RAIN POSSIBLY MIXED WITH SNOW. WILL UPDATE TO TRIM              
BACK THE WEATHER GRIDS BASED ON LATEST RADAR TRENDS...BUT ALSO                  
MAINTAIN CATEGORICAL POPS ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHEAST FOR A BIT LONGER             
INTO THE AFTERNOON. SATELLITE/METARS SHOW PLENTY OF DRY AIR WORKING             
IN ACROSS THE NORTH AND WEST CWA...SO SHOULD BE ABLE TO KEEP A SHARP            
CUTOFF TO THE PRECIP.                                                           
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...625 AM EST SAT APR 2 2005                                           
STRONGER DYNAMICS AND DEEPER MOISTURE TO REMAIN SOUTHEAST OF A                  
FNT/LAN LINE. AS A RESULT PROLONGED MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS WILL BE                 
CONFINED TO THE DTW AND DET TAFS...WITH A BRIEF PERIOD OF IFR IN                
RAIN AND SNOW FROM 12-18Z. BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION IN FNT                 
BETWEEN 13-16Z...AND MBS SHOULD REMAIN PRECIPITATION FREE. SO WILL              
CONTINUE WITH VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD FOR MBS. LOW CLOUDS STRIP AWAY             
QUICKLY THIS AFTERNOON AS LOW DEEPENS EAST OF THE APPALACHIANS. MVFR            
CIGS SHOULD CLEAR FNT BY 18Z AND DTW BY 22Z. DEEP LOW PRESSURE WILL             
PRODUCE STRONG NORTH WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD FOR ALL TAF SITES.                
ATMOSPHERE WILL BE WELL MIX WITH GUSTY WINDS REACHING THE SURFACE               
EVEN AT 12Z...SO DO NOT ANTICIPATE ANY LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR AT THIS             
TIME.                                                                           
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM...SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...ISSUED AT 321 AM                    
PRECIPITATION SHIELD AND COLDER CLOUD TOPS ON IR LOOP BEGINNING TO              
DRAW BACK TO THE WEST AS SURFACE LOW CONTINUES TO TRACK NORTHEAST               
INTO WEST VIRGINIA...AND THETA-E ADVECTION INCREASES ON THE NORTH               
SIDE OF THE LOW. ANTICIPATE PRECIPITATION TO STEADILY INCREASE OVER             
THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA THROUGH 15Z. NOT REAL IMPRESSED WITH                
DEFORMATION AXIS OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES AS IR LOOP CONTINUES              
TO SHOW CLOUD TOP WARMING OVER THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE STATE.                
MODELS SHOW THIS FEATURE ROTATING SOUTHEAST INTO THE CWA BETWEEN                
12-15Z AND 500 MB FGEN FIELD STRENGTHENING FOR A BRIEF TIME BETWEEN             
12-15Z. LOOKS LIKE THE MODELS MAY BE TO AGGRESSIVE WITH DEFORMATION             
AXIS AND 500 MB FGEN THOUGH.                                                    
FIRST SHORT TERM CONCERN WILL BE PRECIPITATION TYPE. MID LEVELS                 
CONTINUE TO BE COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW...HOWEVER IT SHOULD TAKE SEVERAL            
HOURS TO ERODE DEEP WARM LAYER BELOW 2500 FT. MODELS NOW SHOWING WET            
BULB TEMPERATURES ABOVE FREEZING FROM THE SURFACE THROUGH 2K FEET               
THROUGH 12Z...THEN SLOWLY ERODING BETWEEN 1K-2K FT THROUGH 18Z.                 
SURFACE DEW POINTS HAVE ALSO CLIMBED INTO THE MID 30S ACROSS THE                
SOUTHEAST PORTION OF THE CWA IN AREA OF ONGOING PRECIPITATION...SO              
LATENT HEAT RELEASE MAY ALREADY BE HAVING AN IMPACT. THERE WILL BE A            
FIGHT BETWEEN THE LATENT HEAT RELEASE AND COOLING DUE TO                        
MELTING...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHEAST PORTION OF THE CWA IN             
REGION OF HEAVIER PRECIPITATION. THERMAL FIELD REMAINS HOMOGENEOUS              
THOUGH SO WILL NOT HAVE TO CONTEND WITH MUCH WARM AIR ADVECTION. A              
COMPLICATING FACTOR WILL BE INCREASING NORTHEAST FLOW OFF OF THE                
COOLER LAKES...WHICH WILL ALSO HINDER BOUNDARY LAYER WARMING. SO ALL            
THINGS CONSIDER...EVEN WITH A DEEP WARM LAYER TO BEGIN                          
WITH...RAIN/SNOW MIX STILL LOOKS LIKE THE WAY TO GO AFTER                       
12Z...ESPECIALLY WITH THE HOMOGENEOUS THERMAL FIELD OVER THE CENTRAL            
GREAT LAKES. A THIS TIME WILL KEEP SNOW ACCUMULATIONS CONFINED TO               
LESS THAN AN INCH. THIS WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED CAREFULLY ACROSS THE            
FAR SOUTHEAST PORTION OF THE CWA THOUGH.                                        
MODELS SHOWING A BRIEF PERIOD OF INCREASING 850-700 MB FGEN DRAWING             
NORTHWEST INTO THE FAR SOUTHEAST PORTION OF THE CWA BETWEEN                     
12-15Z...SO ANTICIPATE THIS WILL BE THE TIME FRAME FOR MOST                     
SIGNIFICANT QPF AND POTENTIAL MIX WITH SNOW. UPPER JET DYNAMICS                 
ALREADY WELL EAST OF THE CWA...AND MODELS SHOW SOME JET COUPLING                
ALONG THE EAST COAST THIS AFTERNOON AND RAPID DEEPENING OF SURFACE              
LOW. CURRENT OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THIS IS ALREADY HAPPENING...WITH             
LOW ALREADY DOWN TO 994 OVER SOUTHERN WEST VIRGINIA. AS A RESULT                
NORTHEAST WINDS WILL INCREASE RAPIDLY ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES            
SO WILL NEED GALE WARNINGS FROM SOUTHERN LAKE HURON SOUTHWARD BY 18Z.           
MODEL DIFFERENCE ARE MINOR IN THE FIRST 24 HOURS...WITH THE NAM AND             
RUC VERY SIMILAR OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION...GFS APPEARS TO BE A              
LITTLE TO COLD WITH THE 850 MB THERMAL FIELD OVER                               
WISCONSIN...SHOWING A LARGE AREA OF -5C...WITH COLDEST OBS ONLY                 
-3C...NAM HAS DONE A MUCH BETTER JOB THERE...SO SHORT TERM FORECAST             
WILL LEAN MORE TOWARD A NAM SOLUTION. NAM QPF ALSO A LITTLE MORE                
ROBUST WITH QPF THROUGH 15Z...WHICH MATCHES UP BETTER WITH CURRENT 6            
HOUR QPF TOTALS OVER THE FAR EASTERN PORTION OF THE CWA AND POINTS              
EAST.                                                                           
ALTHOUGH MODELS STRIP PRECIPITATION OUT OF THE CWA QUICKLY THIS                 
EVENING...WILL CONTINUE WITH A MENTION OF CHANCE POPS EAST THROUGH              
06Z...DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN CYCLOGENESIS ALONG THE EAST COAST AND               
ASSOCIATED EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF LOW LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW.                     
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM...ISSUED AT 321 AM                                                   
AS THE STORM SLOWLY PULLS AWAY...THERE WILL STILL BE PLENTY OF WIND             
ON SUNDAY. AREA WILL BE MIXING UP TO 2K TO 4K FEET...WHICH WILL HELP            
BRING DOWN WIND GUSTS UP TO 35 KTS. SUNSHINE WILL HELP GET THE                  
MIXING GOING ON SUNDAY. ONLY SOME HI MOISTURE FROM THE DEPARTING                
SYSTEM ON SUNDAY TO GIVE THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA SOME CI. WITH              
THE STRONG NW WINDS...AND 80H TEMPS STILL AROUND 0C...WENT TOWARD               
THE COOLER NAM GUIDANCE NUMBERS...EVEN WITH PLENTY OF SUN.                      
AFTER SUNDAY...DRY AIR IS IN PLACE RIGHT UNTIL TUESDAY...BESIDES                
SOME CI AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM ON MONDAY NIGHT.  ENOUGH DRY AIR TO            
JUST GO WITH CLEAR AND SUNNY FORECAST SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. BY               
TUESDAY...MOISTURE POOLS ALONG THE WARM FRONT JUST SOUTH OF THE                 
STATE SO EXPECT SOME PARTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS.  JUST NOT ENOUGH                  
FORCING TO GET ANYTHING OTHER THAN CLOUDS WITH THE WARM FRONT.                  
THEN THE 00Z GFS IS SLOWER WITH THE NEXT SYSTEM...LEANING MUCH MORE             
TOWARD THE UKMET...ECMWF AND CANADIAN...WHICH IS WHAT WAS GOING IN              
THE FORECAST. SO NO REAL CHANGES FROM TUESDAY TO FRIDAY.  DID TWEAK             
HIGH TEMPERATURES THOUGH...JUST A BIT WARMER AHEAD OF THE FRONT FOR             
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...AND THEN A BIT COOLER BEHIND THE FRONT.                 
&&                                                                              
.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
.MI...NONE.                                                                     
.LAKE HURON...GALE WARNING...SOUTH HALF...THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON.             
.LAKE ST CLAIR...GALE WARNING...THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON.                       
.MI WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...GALE WARNING...THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON.              
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
BRAVENDER/GSS/RBP                                                               
</PRE></TT></td>   mi                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI                                             
1006 AM EST SAT APR 2 2005                                                      
.UPDATE...CLOUD COVER ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEVELOPING E COAST STORM              
IS JUST GRAZING THE FORECAST AREA. MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS PREVAIL             
EAST OF A LINE FROM HURON BEACH TO HTL...PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY                 
WEST. THERE IS A SMALL AREA OF MID CLOUDS GRAZING BY FAR WESTERN                
CHIP/MACK COUNTIES IN THE EASTERN UP. IT/S A BIT BRISK THIS MORNING             
IN THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN ZONES WHERE THE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS                
TIGHTER...WINDIEST CONDITIONS ARE ALONG THE LAKE HURON SHORELINE.               
MID LEVEL DEFORMATION AXIS...BETWEEN UPPER LOWS NEAR JAMES BAY AND              
IN THE UPPER TN VALLEY...MARKS THE BOUNDARY BETWEEN CLOUDS AND SUN.             
NAM IS A LITTLE SLOWER THAN THE RUC TO MOVE THE DEFORMATION AXIS                
EAST...AND GIVEN SATELLITE TRENDS SLOWER IS BETTER. STILL...AS THE              
AFTERNOON GOES ON THE DEFORMATION AXIS WILL MOVE OUT ACROSS LAKE                
HURON. CLEARING WILL OCCUR...BUT A LITTLE SLOWER THAN EARLIER                   
PLANNED.                                                                        
CURRENT OBS SUPPORT TWEAKING TEMPS UPWARD IN NE WIND DOWNSLOPE AREAS            
IN NW LOWER AND EASTERN UPPER MI. WILL GO A BIT COOLER NEAR LAKE                
HURON WITH A COLD ONSHORE WIND.                                                 
ZOLTOWSKI                                                                       
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION ISSUED 317 AM SAT APR 2...                                     
STORM SYSTEM GETTING SPUN UP ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AS WV IMAGERY               
SHOWS UPPER LOW CLOSING OFF OVER EASTERN IA.  999MB SURFACE LOW                 
ALONG WV/KY BORDER WITH A PAIR OF STRONG PRESSURE FALL CENTERS                  
(5-6MB/3HR) ASSOCIATED WITH IT...ONE OVER OH AND A SECOND OVER THE              
CAROLINAS.  SURFACE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN AND LIFT INTO OH                
THIS MORNING...BUT SECONDARY CYCLOGENESIS ALREADY OCCURRING OVER THE            
CAROLINAS WHERE SECOND PRESSURE FALL CENTER IS LOCATED AS UPPER LOW             
DIVES INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S.  THIS WILL BECOME THE MAIN SURFACE             
FEATURE AS IT LIFTS NORTH INTO PA BY TONIGHT...AND SLOWLY INTO THE              
NORTHEAST SUNDAY.  SO FORECAST CONCERNS REVOLVE AROUND WHAT EFFECTS             
THIS DEVELOPING SYSTEM WILL HAVE ON NORTHERN MI THIS WEEKEND.                   
TODAY...AREA RADARS SHOW PRECIP TRYING TO BACK INTO CENTRAL/SOUTHERN            
LOWER MI EARLY THIS MORNING AS MID LEVEL CIRCULATION TAKES SHAPE.               
00Z APX/DTX RAOBS WERE DRY BELOW 700MB (10-20C DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS            
AT 850MB)...AND APPEARS CONTINUED ADVECTION OF LOW LEVEL DRY AIR                
FROM THE EAST HAS BEEN KEEPING MUCH PRECIP FROM REACHING THE GROUND             
OVER SOUTHERN LOWER.  CI/AC SHIELD HAS OVERSPREAD ALL BUT FAR                   
WESTERN PORTIONS OF MACKINAC/CHIPPEWA COUNTIES WHERE MID/UPPER LEVEL            
FLOW IS MORE FROM THE SOUTHWEST.  MID LEVEL DEFORMATION AXIS ALREADY            
EVIDENT IN RADAR COMPOSITE RUNNING ACROSS SOUTHERN LAKE HURON/                  
SOUTHERN ONTARIO...AND THIS WILL BE THE KEY FOR NORTHERN MI TODAY.              
THIS FEATURE SET UP ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE STATE ALONG WITH            
CONTINUED LOW LEVEL DRY AIR ADVECTION SHOULD KEEP MAIN PRECIP THREAT            
TO THE SOUTH.  WILL KEEP AN EYE ON RADAR TRENDS THIS MORNING.  THIS             
SET UP ALSO CONTRIBUTES TO INCREASING DEEP LAYER DOWNWARD FORCING               
TODAY WITH NORTHERN MI ENDING UP ON THE COOL SIDE OF STRONG LOW/MID             
LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS MAXIMUM TO THE SOUTHEAST.  SO THICK AC/CI LAYER             
ACROSS THE AREA EARLY ON EXPECTED TO THIN OUT OVER ALL EXCEPT FAR               
NORTHEAST LOWER...LIKELY BY MID/LATE MORNING.  THIS INCLUDES SOME               
ACCAS ACROSS WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/WESTERN UPPER WHICH MAY TRY TO               
DRIFT INTO EASTERN UPPER THIS MORNING.  SO WILL TREND THE FORECAST              
TOWARD LESS CLOUD COVER AS THE DAY WEARS ON.  TIGHTENING PRESSURE               
GRADIENT AND MIXING SHOULD RESULT IN A BREEZY DAY ACROSS MUCH OF THE            
AREA...WITH 20-30 MPH GUSTS EXPECTED DURING THE LATE MORNING/                   
AFTERNOON.                                                                      
TONIGHT...LOOKING AT A CLEAR/PARTLY CLOUDY NIGHT ACROSS NORTHERN MI             
AS EASTERN SYSTEM LIFTS NORTH THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC STATES.                  
NARROW WEDGE OF VERY DRY AIR FORECAST ACROSS THE AREA BETWEEN                   
EXPANSIVE UPPER LOW TO THE EAST AND SHORT WAVE RIDGE AXIS POKING                
INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES.  EXPECT GUSTY WINDS FROM THE NORTH/               
NORTHWEST TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT ACROSS NORTHEAST LOWER.                         
SUNDAY...ANOTHER DRY DAY EXPECTED WITH A GOOD DEAL OF SUN...PERHAPS             
SOME CI ACROSS NORTHEAST LOWER ROTATING AROUND EASTERN STORM                    
SYSTEM.  GFS TRIES TO SHOVE SOME HIGHER RH AROUND 850MB INTO THE                
AREA LATE IN THE DAY...LOOKS LIKE THE MODEL IS HAVING SOME LOW LEVEL            
MOISTURE ISSUES UPSTREAM (10-20F JUMP IN SURFACE DEW POINTS BETWEEN             
12-18Z SUNDAY ACROSS MN/WI LOOKS SUSPICIOUS) SO WILL IGNORE THIS                
TREND.  SUNDAY NIGHT ALSO LOOKS MAINLY CLEAR WITH SURFACE RIDGING               
OVERHEAD AND MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS UPSTREAM.  ANOTHER BREEZY               
DAY EXPECTED SUNDAY...ESPECIALLY OVER EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST              
AREA ON THE BACK EDGE OF TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT ASSOCIATED WITH              
SURFACE LOW LIFTING INTO NY...AND WITH 25-35KT WINDS WITHIN MIXED               
LAYER EXPECT GUSTS ALONG/EAST OF I-75 IN THE 30-40 MPH RANGE.  WINDS            
WILL DIMINISH SUNDAY NIGHT AS SURFACE RIDGE AXIS BUILDS INTO THE                
STATE.                                                                          
MONDAY AND EXTENDED PERIODS...NO CHANGES MADE TO DRY MONDAY FORECAST            
AS AFOREMENTIONED MID LEVEL RIDGE AXIS STILL WEST OF THE STATE.                 
JPB                                                                             
&&                                                                              
.APX...WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</PRE></TT></td>   mi                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI                                     
625 AM EST SAT APR 2 2005                                                       
.AVIATION...                                                                    
STRONGER DYNAMICS AND DEEPER MOISTURE TO REMAIN SOUTHEAST OF A                  
FNT/LAN LINE. AS A RESULT PROLONGED MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS WILL BE                 
CONFINED TO THE DTW AND DET TAFS...WITH A BRIEF PERIOD OF IFR IN                
RAIN AND SNOW FROM 12-18Z. BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION IN FNT                 
BETWEEN 13-16Z...AND MBS SHOULD REMAIN PRECIPITATION FREE. SO WILL              
CONTINUE WITH VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD FOR MBS. LOW CLOUDS STRIP AWAY             
QUICKLY THIS AFTERNOON AS LOW DEEPENS EAST OF THE APPALACHIANS. MVFR            
CIGS SHOULD CLEAR FNT BY 18Z AND DTW BY 22Z. DEEP LOW PRESSURE WILL             
PRODUCE STRONG NORTH WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD FOR ALL TAF SITES.                
ATMOSPHERE WILL BE WELL MIX WITH GUSTY WINDS REACHING THE SURFACE               
EVEN AT 12Z...SO DO NOT ANTICIPATE ANY LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR AT THIS             
TIME.                                                                           
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM...SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...ISSUED AT 321 AM                    
PRECIPITATION SHIELD AND COLDER CLOUD TOPS ON IR LOOP BEGINNING TO              
DRAW BACK TO THE WEST AS SURFACE LOW CONTINUES TO TRACK NORTHEAST               
INTO WEST VIRGINIA...AND THETA-E ADVECTION INCREASES ON THE NORTH               
SIDE OF THE LOW. ANTICIPATE PRECIPITATION TO STEADILY INCREASE OVER             
THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA THROUGH 15Z. NOT REAL IMPRESSED WITH                
DEFORMATION AXIS OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES AS IR LOOP CONTINUES              
TO SHOW CLOUD TOP WARMING OVER THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE STATE.                
MODELS SHOW THIS FEATURE ROTATING SOUTHEAST INTO THE CWA BETWEEN                
12-15Z AND 500 MB FGEN FIELD STRENGTHENING FOR A BRIEF TIME BETWEEN             
12-15Z. LOOKS LIKE THE MODELS MAY BE TO AGGRESSIVE WITH DEFORMATION             
AXIS AND 500 MB FGEN THOUGH.                                                    
FIRST SHORT TERM CONCERN WILL BE PRECIPITATION TYPE. MID LEVELS                 
CONTINUE TO BE COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW...HOWEVER IT SHOULD TAKE SEVERAL            
HOURS TO ERODE DEEP WARM LAYER BELOW 2500 FT. MODELS NOW SHOWING WET            
BULB TEMPERATURES ABOVE FREEZING FROM THE SURFACE THROUGH 2K FEET               
THROUGH 12Z...THEN SLOWLY ERODING BETWEEN 1K-2K FT THROUGH 18Z.                 
SURFACE DEW POINTS HAVE ALSO CLIMBED INTO THE MID 30S ACROSS THE                
SOUTHEAST PORTION OF THE CWA IN AREA OF ONGOING PRECIPITATION...SO              
LATENT HEAT RELEASE MAY ALREADY BE HAVING AN IMPACT. THERE WILL BE A            
FIGHT BETWEEN THE LATENT HEAT RELEASE AND COOLING DUE TO                        
MELTING...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHEAST PORTION OF THE CWA IN             
REGION OF HEAVIER PRECIPITATION. THERMAL FIELD REMAINS HOMOGENEOUS              
THOUGH SO WILL NOT HAVE TO CONTEND WITH MUCH WARM AIR ADVECTION. A              
COMPLICATING FACTOR WILL BE INCREASING NORTHEAST FLOW OFF OF THE                
COOLER LAKES...WHICH WILL ALSO HINDER BOUNDARY LAYER WARMING. SO ALL            
THINGS CONSIDER...EVEN WITH A DEEP WARM LAYER TO BEGIN                          
WITH...RAIN/SNOW MIX STILL LOOKS LIKE THE WAY TO GO AFTER                       
12Z...ESPECIALLY WITH THE HOMOGENEOUS THERMAL FIELD OVER THE CENTRAL            
GREAT LAKES. A THIS TIME WILL KEEP SNOW ACCUMULATIONS CONFINED TO               
LESS THAN AN INCH. THIS WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED CAREFULLY ACROSS THE            
FAR SOUTHEAST PORTION OF THE CWA THOUGH.                                        
MODELS SHOWING A BRIEF PERIOD OF INCREASING 850-700 MB FGEN DRAWING             
NORTHWEST INTO THE FAR SOUTHEAST PORTION OF THE CWA BETWEEN                     
12-15Z...SO ANTICIPATE THIS WILL BE THE TIME FRAME FOR MOST                     
SIGNIFICANT QPF AND POTENTIAL MIX WITH SNOW. UPPER JET DYNAMICS                 
ALREADY WELL EAST OF THE CWA...AND MODELS SHOW SOME JET COUPLING                
ALONG THE EAST COAST THIS AFTERNOON AND RAPID DEEPENING OF SURFACE              
LOW. CURRENT OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THIS IS ALREADY HAPPENING...WITH             
LOW ALREADY DOWN TO 994 OVER SOUTHERN WEST VIRGINIA. AS A RESULT                
NORTHEAST WINDS WILL INCREASE RAPIDLY ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES            
SO WILL NEED GALE WARNINGS FROM SOUTHERN LAKE HURON SOUTHWARD BY 18Z.           
MODEL DIFFERENCE ARE MINOR IN THE FIRST 24 HOURS...WITH THE NAM AND             
RUC VERY SIMILAR OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION...GFS APPEARS TO BE A              
LITTLE TO COLD WITH THE 850 MB THERMAL FIELD OVER                               
WISCONSIN...SHOWING A LARGE AREA OF -5C...WITH COLDEST OBS ONLY                 
-3C...NAM HAS DONE A MUCH BETTER JOB THERE...SO SHORT TERM FORECAST             
WILL LEAN MORE TOWARD A NAM SOLUTION. NAM QPF ALSO A LITTLE MORE                
ROBUST WITH QPF THROUGH 15Z...WHICH MATCHES UP BETTER WITH CURRENT 6            
HOUR QPF TOTALS OVER THE FAR EASTERN PORTION OF THE CWA AND POINTS              
EAST.                                                                           
ALTHOUGH MODELS STRIP PRECIPITATION OUT OF THE CWA QUICKLY THIS                 
EVENING...WILL CONTINUE WITH A MENTION OF CHANCE POPS EAST THROUGH              
06Z...DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN CYCLOGENESIS ALONG THE EAST COAST AND               
ASSOCIATED EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF LOW LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW.                     
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM...ISSUED AT 321 AM                                                   
AS THE STORM SLOWLY PULLS AWAY...THERE WILL STILL BE PLENTY OF WIND             
ON SUNDAY. AREA WILL BE MIXING UP TO 2K TO 4K FEET...WHICH WILL HELP            
BRING DOWN WIND GUSTS UP TO 35 KTS. SUNSHINE WILL HELP GET THE                  
MIXING GOING ON SUNDAY. ONLY SOME HI MOISTURE FROM THE DEPARTING                
SYSTEM ON SUNDAY TO GIVE THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA SOME CI. WITH              
THE STRONG NW WINDS...AND 80H TEMPS STILL AROUND 0C...WENT TOWARD               
THE COOLER NAM GUIDANCE NUMBERS...EVEN WITH PLENTY OF SUN.                      
AFTER SUNDAY...DRY AIR IS IN PLACE RIGHT UNTIL TUESDAY...BESIDES                
SOME CI AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM ON MONDAY NIGHT.  ENOUGH DRY AIR TO            
JUST GO WITH CLEAR AND SUNNY FORECAST SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. BY               
TUESDAY...MOISTURE POOLS ALONG THE WARM FRONT JUST SOUTH OF THE                 
STATE SO EXPECT SOME PARTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS.  JUST NOT ENOUGH                  
FORCING TO GET ANYTHING OTHER THAN CLOUDS WITH THE WARM FRONT.                  
THEN THE 00Z GFS IS SLOWER WITH THE NEXT SYSTEM...LEANING MUCH MORE             
TOWARD THE UKMET...ECMWF AND CANADIAN...WHICH IS WHAT WAS GOING IN              
THE FORECAST. SO NO REAL CHANGES FROM TUESDAY TO FRIDAY.  DID TWEAK             
HIGH TEMPERATURES THOUGH...JUST A BIT WARMER AHEAD OF THE FRONT FOR             
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...AND THEN A BIT COOLER BEHIND THE FRONT.                 
&&                                                                              
.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
.MI...NONE.                                                                     
.LAKE HURON...GALE WARNING...SOUTH HALF...THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY                  
AFTERNOON.                                                                      
.LAKE ST CLAIR...GALE WARNING...THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY AFTERNOON.                 
.MI WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...GALE WARNING...THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY                   
AFTERNOON.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
GSS/RBP                                                                         
</PRE></TT></td>   mi                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY                                             
1100 PM EST SAT APR 2 2005                                                      
.UPDATE...                                                                      
WILL BE ISSUING WINTER STORM WARNING OVERNIGHT AND SUNDAY FOR THE               
FAR WESTERN COUNTIES AS A RESULT OF RADAR DEPICTION OF DEFORMATION              
ZONE SETTING UP OVER THE FAR WESTERN COUNTIES. THIS WILL INCLUDE                
NIAGARA...ERIE...CHAUTAUQUA AND CATTARAUGUS. WILL GO WITH 3 TO 6                
INCHES IN THESE AREAS OVERNIGHT WITH ANOTHER 3 TO 6 INCHES FOR                  
SUNDAY. AMOUNTS WILL ALSO BE RASIED FOR THE ADVISORY AREA OF                    
ORLEANS..GENESEE...WYOMING AND ALLEGANY.                                        
PREVIOUS DISCO FOUND BELOW.                                                     
RSH                                                                             
.FROM 10 PM...                                                                  
TWO DISTINCT WEATHER REGIMES TONIGHT...EACH WITH THEIR OWN CONCERNS             
TO ADDRESS. LETS BEGIN WITH THE FLOODING.                                       
THE STACKED STORM SYSTEM SPINNING OVER EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA HAS BEEN            
CIRCULATING COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF ATLANTIC MOISTURE BACK ACROSS WESTERN            
AND NORTH CENTRAL NEW YORK FOR OVER 24 HOURS. RUNNING RAINFALL                  
TOTALS (AS OF THE WRITING OF THIS AFD) RANGE FROM ONE TO TWO INCHES             
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. OVER THE FINGER LAKES AND EASTERN LAKE                
ONTARIO REGIONS...THE BULK OF THIS RAIN HAS FALLEN SINCE 18Z.                   
DEEP VERTICAL MOTION DEPICTED WITHIN AN AGEOSTROPHIC CIRCULATION                
CROSS SECTION ACROSS THE FINGER LAKES UNCOVERED VERY DEEP (30K FT OR            
ROUGHLY 700MB) LIFT SUPPLIED FROM A COUPLED H25 JET. THIS PROCESS               
HAS BEEN VERY EFFICIENT AT PRODUCING AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF MODERATE             
TO HEAVY RAIN FROM EASTERN PA TO THE FINGER LAKES BETWEEN 21-02Z...             
BUT AS MODELS HAD PREDICTED...THE LIFTING JETS ARE DISPLACING THE               
EFFECTS OF THE COUPLED JET AND THE CORRESPONDING RAIN IS FALLING                
APART IN THAT PARTICULAR REGION.                                                
AS A RESULT...THE PREVIOUSLY ISSUED FLOOD WARNINGS FOR PARTS OF THE             
FINGER LAKES AND EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGIONS WILL BE ALLOWED TO                
EXPIRE AT 04Z. WE WILL HOWEVER...KEEP THE FLOOD WATCH IN PLACE FOR              
ALL OF WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEW YORK THROUGH 23Z (6PM EDT)                 
SUNDAY. NEWLY ISSUED RIVER FLOOD WARNINGS ARE DETAILED BELOW IN THE             
HYDRO DISCUSSION.                                                               
THE STEADIEST PCPN WILL THEN BE FOUND OVER THE FAR WESTERN COUNTIES             
WHERE A NEW DEFORMATION ZONE IS TRYING TO GET ESTABLSHED. RUC40                 
OMEGA AND PCPN FORECASTS PLACE THE MOST LIKELY AREA OF CONCERN OVER             
THE IAG FRONTIER AND LAKE ERIE.                                                 
WHILE AN EASTERLY FLOW HAS MODERATED SFC-850MB TEMPS EAST OF LK                 
ONTARIO...A NORTH TO NORTHEAST FLOW AT A SIMILAR LEVEL HAS RESULTED             
IN COLD ADVECTION OVER THE FAR WESTERN COUNTIES. A POINT SOUNDING               
SOUTH OF ROC SHOWED CONTINUED COLD ADVECTION AT H85...SUGGESTING                
THAT THE PCPN WILL CHANGE OVER TO SNOW AND/OR SLEET AS FAR EAST AS              
ROC. MIXED PCPN HAS ALREADY CHANGED TO SNOW FOR PLACES LIKE BUF AND             
IAG.                                                                            
A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS ALREADY IN PLACE FOR THE IAG FRONTIER              
AND WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER...BUT WILL MOST LIKELY OPEN UP THE CURRENT            
SNOWFALL RANGE FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD TO ACCOUNT FOR MODELS                   
DEPICTION OF A STRENGTHENING DEFORMATION ZONE OVER THIS PARTICULAR              
REGION.                                                                         
RSH                                                                             
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM (SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY)...                                          
MIXED PCPN OVER THE GENESEE VALLEY SUNDAY MORNING WILL GRADUALLY                
WORK TO THE EAST DURING SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT S COLD ADVECTION                
SPREADS EAST.                                                                   
THE LOW WILL GRADUALLY LIFT NORTHEAST ALONG THE ST.LAWRENCE VALLEY              
WITH WRAP AROUND PRECIP WINDING DOWN SUNDAY NIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY              
AS SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS IN.                                                     
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM (TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...                                        
CLOSED LOW OVER THE LOWER SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER WILL SLOWLY FILL AND             
FINALLY GET PUSHED OUT TO SEA AS A SURFACE HIGH AND UPPER RIDGE                 
BUILD OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND MID ATLANTIC STATES ON TUESDAY AND               
EARLY WEDNESDAY. UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY WILL                
WARM TEMPS INTO THE 60S FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA. SOUTHERLY                
WINDS WILL ENHANCE TEMPS AS WELL WITH DOWNSLOPING OVER THE WEST. THE            
RIDGE SHIFTS TO THE EAST OF THE AREA WED NIGHT AS PACIFIC CUTOFF                
TRACKS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND A SPEED MAX DIVES SOUTHWARD               
OVER THE PRAIRIE PROVINCES. THE NORTHERN LOW DEEPENS SHARPLY AND                
PHASES WITH THE SOUTHERN LOW...ABSORBING IT INTO THE DEEPENING                  
TROUGH IN THE PROCESS. A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT...WITH A SERIES OF              
SURFACE WAVES ATTACHED...MOVES ACROSS THE STATE ON THURSDAY AND                 
EARLY FRIDAY...STALLING ACROSS THE STATE ON FRIDAY. THE UPPER CUTOFF            
LOW SAGS SOUTH ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES AS THE TROUGH BECOMES             
NEGATIVELY TILTED. THIS HOLDS A STEADY STREAM OF PRECIP ACROSS NEW              
YORK STATE FROM MID THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. HYDRO ISSUES WILL                
AGAIN BECOME A CONCERN.                                                         
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
IFR TO LIFR WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA IN RAIN AND SNOW                
THROUGH SUNDAY.                                                                 
&&                                                                              
.MARINE...                                                                      
NORTHERLY WINDS ON LAKE ONTARIO OF 30 KNOTS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE              
TO 15 TO 25 KNOTS SUNDAY MORNING AND THEN TEND TO BACK NORTHWEST                
LATER IN THE DAY. WAVES OF 5 TO 8 FEET WILL ONLY SLOWLY SUBSIDE                 
SUNDAY.                                                                         
&&                                                                              
.HYDRO...                                                                       
QUITE AN EVENT FOR OUR REGION. DRENCHING RAINS OF 1.5 TO 2.5 INCHES             
EAST OF THE GENESEE RIVER WITH WIDESPREAD LOCAL FLOODING AND 1 TO               
1.5 INCHES TO THE WEST. WET SNOW MIXED IN AT TIMES OVER FAR WEST ALL            
DAY. WITH BEST DYNAMICS HAVING LIFTED NORTH OF OUR REGION LATE THIS             
EVENING...EXPECT ONLY LIGHT RAIN FROM GEN VALLEY EAST SO WILL ALLOW             
GENERAL FLOOD WARNING TO EXPIRE. FURTHER WEST...MOST OF PRECIP WILL             
FALL AS SNOW REST OF NIGHT INTO SUNDAY SO LITTLE IF ANY MORE RUNOFF.            
BUT...WILL HOLD ONTO FLOOD WATCH THRU SUNDAY FOR ANY LEFTOVERS.                 
AS FOR RIVERS AND CREEKS...GOOD COORDINATION WITH RFCS TONIGHT AND              
BOTH ISSUED NEW RUNS AT 00Z (THANKS). WE WILL BE HOISTING WARNINGS              
FOR THE BLACK AND OATKA CREEKS IN ROCHESTER AREA...AND A LONGER TERM            
WARNING FOR BLACK RIVER EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO. SEVERAL OTHER                     
WATERWAYS WILL GET TO BANKFUL BUT WILL HOLD OFF ON FLOOD WARNINGS AT            
THIS TIME AS THEY SHOULD CREST JUST BELOW FLOOD STAGE. THIS INCLUDES            
UPPER GENESEE AND ALLEGHENY RIVERS AND TONAWANDA CREEK. WE WILL                 
MONITOR THESE CLOSELY THROUGH THE NIGHT.                                        
&&                                                                              
.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
NY...WINTER STORM WARNING OVERNIGHT AND SUNDAY NYZ001-010-019-020-085.          
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY OVERNIGHT AND SUNDAY NYZ002-011-012-021.           
     FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY NYZ001>008-010>014-019>021-085.                 
.MARINE...NONE.                                                                 
&&                                                                              
UPDATE...RSH                                                                    
SHORT TERM...JML                                                                
LONG TERM...WCH                                                                 
AVIATION/MARINE/HYDRO...SFM                                                     
</PRE></TT></td>   ny                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY                                             
950 PM EST SAT APR 2 2005                                                       
.UPDATE...                                                                      
TWO DISTINCT WEATHER REGIMES TONIGHT...EACH WITH THEIR OWN CONCERNS             
TO ADDRESS. LETS BEGIN WITH THE ONE WITH THE LARGEST IMPACT...THAT              
BEING FLOODING.                                                                 
THE STACKED STORM SYSTEM SPINNING OVER EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA HAS BEEN            
CIRCULATING COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF ATLANTIC MOISTURE BACK ACROSS WESTERN            
AND NORTH CENTRAL NEW YORK FOR OVER 24 HOURS. RUNNING RAINFALL                  
TOTALS (AS OF THE WRITING OF THIS AFD) RANGE FROM ONE TO TWO INCHES             
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. OVER THE FINGER LAKES AND EASTERN LAKE                
ONTARIO REGIONS...THE BULK OF THIS RAIN HAS FALLEN SINCE 18Z.                   
DEEP VERTICAL MOTION DEPICTED WITHIN AN AGEOSTROPHIC CIRCULATION                
CROSS SECTION ACROSS THE FINGER LAKES UNCOVERED VERY DEEP (30K FT OR            
ROUGHLY 700MB) LIFT SUPPLIED FROM A COUPLED H25 JET. THIS PROCESS               
HAS BEEN VERY EFFICIENT AT PRODUCING AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF MODERATE             
TO HEAVY RAIN FROM EASTERN PA TO THE FINGER LAKES BETWEEN 21-02Z...             
BUT AS MODELS HAD PREDICTED...THE LIFTING JETS ARE DISPLACING THE               
EFFECTS OF THE COUPLED JET AND THE CORRESPONDING RAIN IS FALLING                
APART IN THAT PARTICULAR REGION.                                                
AS A RESULT...THE PREVIOUSLY ISSUED FLOOD WARNINGS FOR PARTS OF THE             
FINGER LAKES AND EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGIONS WILL BE ALLOWED TO                
EXPIRE AT 04Z. WE WILL HOWEVER...KEEP THE FLOOD WATCH IN PLACE FOR              
ALL OF WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEW YORK THROUGH 23Z (6PM EDT)                 
SUNDAY. NEWLY ISSUED RIVER FLOOD WARNINGS ARE DETAILED BELOW IN THE             
HYDRO DISCUSSION.                                                               
THE STEADIEST PCPN WILL THEN BE FOUND OVER THE FAR WESTERN COUNTIES             
WHERE A NEW DEFORMATION ZONE IS TRYING TO GET ESTABLSHED. RUC40                 
OMEGA AND PCPN FORECASTS PLACE THE MOST LIKELY AREA OF CONCERN OVER             
THE IAG FRONTIER AND LAKE ERIE.                                                 
WHILE AN EASTERLY FLOW HAS MODERATED SFC-850MB TEMPS EAST OF LK                 
ONTARIO...A NORTH TO NORTHEAST FLOW AT A SIMILAR LEVEL HAS RESULTED             
IN COLD ADVECTION OVER THE FAR WESTERN COUNTIES. A POINT SOUNDING               
SOUTH OF ROC SHOWED CONTINUED COLD ADVECTION AT H85...SUGGESTING                
THAT THE PCPN WILL CHANGE OVER TO SNOW AND/OR SLEET AS FAR EAST AS              
ROC. MIXED PCPN HAS ALREADY CHANGED TO SNOW FOR PLACES LIKE BUF AND             
IAG.                                                                            
A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS ALREADY IN PLACE FOR THE IAG FRONTIER              
AND WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER...BUT WILL MOST LIKELY OPEN UP THE CURRENT            
SNOWFALL RANGE FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD TO ACCOUNT FOR MODELS                   
DEPICTION OF A STRENGTHEING DEFORMATION ZONE OVER THIS PARTICULAR               
REGION.                                                                         
RSH                                                                             
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM (SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY)...                                          
MIXED PCPN OVER THE GENESEE VALLEY SUNDAY MORNING WILL GRADUALLY                
WORK TO THE EAST DURING SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT S COLD ADVECTION                
SPREADS EAST.                                                                   
THE LOW WILL GRADUALLY LIFT NORTHEAST ALONG THE ST.LAWRENCE VALLEY              
WITH WRAP AROUND PRECIP WINDING DOWN SUNDAY NIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY              
AS SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS IN.                                                     
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM (TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...                                        
CLOSED LOW OVER THE LOWER SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER WILL SLOWLY FILL AND             
FINALLY GET PUSHED OUT TO SEA AS A SURFACE HIGH AND UPPER RIDGE                 
BUILD OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND MID ATLANTIC STATES ON TUESDAY AND               
EARLY WEDNESDAY. UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY WILL                
WARM TEMPS INTO THE 60S FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA. SOUTHERLY                
WINDS WILL ENHANCE TEMPS AS WELL WITH DOWNSLOPING OVER THE WEST. THE            
RIDGE SHIFTS TO THE EAST OF THE AREA WED NIGHT AS PACIFIC CUTOFF                
TRACKS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND A SPEED MAX DIVES SOUTHWARD               
OVER THE PRAIRIE PROVINCES. THE NORTHERN LOW DEEPENS SHARPLY AND                
PHASES WITH THE SOUTHERN LOW...ABSORBING IT INTO THE DEEPENING                  
TROUGH IN THE PROCESS. A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT...WITH A SERIES OF              
SURFACE WAVES ATTACHED...MOVES ACROSS THE STATE ON THURSDAY AND                 
EARLY FRIDAY...STALLING ACROSS THE STATE ON FRIDAY. THE UPPER CUTOFF            
LOW SAGS SOUTH ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES AS THE TROUGH BECOMES             
NEGATIVELY TILTED. THIS HOLDS A STEADY STREAM OF PRECIP ACROSS NEW              
YORK STATE FROM MID THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. HYDRO ISSUES WILL                
AGAIN BECOME A CONCERN.                                                         
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
IFR TO LIFR WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA IN RAIN AND SNOW                
THROUGH SUNDAY.                                                                 
&&                                                                              
.MARINE...                                                                      
NORTHERLY WINDS ON LAKE ONTARIO OF 30 KNOTS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE              
TO 15 TO 25 KNOTS SUNDAY MORNING AND THEN TEND TO BACK NORTHWEST                
LATER IN THE DAY. WAVES OF 5 TO 8 FEET WILL ONLY SLOWLY SUBSIDE                 
SUNDAY.                                                                         
&&                                                                              
.HYDRO...                                                                       
QUITE AN EVENT FOR OUR REGION. DRENCHING RAINS OF 1.5 TO 2.5 INCHES             
EAST OF THE GENESEE RIVER WITH WIDESPREAD LOCAL FLOODING AND 1 TO               
1.5 INCHES TO THE WEST. WET SNOW MIXED IN AT TIMES OVER FAR WEST ALL            
DAY. WITH BEST DYNAMICS HAVING LIFTED NORTH OF OUR REGION LATE THIS             
EVENING...EXPECT ONLY LIGHT RAIN FROM GEN VALLEY EAST SO WILL ALLOW             
GENERAL FLOOD WARNING TO EXPIRE. FURTHER WEST...MOST OF PRECIP WILL             
FALL AS SNOW REST OF NIGHT INTO SUNDAY SO LITTLE IF ANY MORE RUNOFF.            
BUT...WILL HOLD ONTO FLOOD WATCH THRU SUNDAY FOR ANY LEFTOVERS.                 
AS FOR RIVERS AND CREEKS...GOOD COORDINATION WITH RFCS TONIGHT AND              
BOTH ISSUED NEW RUNS AT 00Z (THANKS). WE WILL BE HOISTING WARNINGS              
FOR THE BLACK AND OATKA CREEKS IN ROCHESTER AREA...AND A LONGER TERM            
WARNING FOR BLACK RIVER EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO. SEVERAL OTHER                     
WATERWAYS WILL GET TO BANKFUL BUT WILL HOLD OFF ON FLOOD WARNINGS AT            
THIS TIME AS THEY SHOULD CREST JUST BELOW FLOOD STAGE. THIS INCLUDES            
UPPER GENESEE AND ALLEGHENY RIVERS AND TONAWANDA CREEK. WE WILL                 
MONITOR THESE CLOSELY THROUGH THE NIGHT.                                        
&&                                                                              
.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
NY...FLOOD WARNING THROUGH 11 PM EST NYZ004>008-014.                            
     FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY NYZ001>008-010>014-019>021-085.                 
     WINTER STORM WEATHER ADVISORY OVERNIGHT AND SUNDAY                         
        NYZ001-002-010>012-019>021-085                                          
.MARINE...NONE.                                                                 
&&                                                                              
UPDATE...RSH                                                                    
SHORT TERM...JML                                                                
LONG TERM...WCH                                                                 
AVIATION/MARINE/HYDRO...SFM                                                     
</PRE></TT></td>   ny                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH                                          
1050 AM EST SAT APR 2 2005                                                      
.SHORT TERM (REST OF TODAY)...                                                  
WILL SEND OUT UPDATE WITHIN THE HOUR FOR RAIN/SNOW DEFINITIONS. RUC             
MDL SOUNDINGS PICK UP MORE PERSISTENT SNOW IN CNTRL OHIO WTH SFC                
TEMPS BELWO 35...WTH MOSTLY RA ELSEWHERE. ILN CURRENTLY MIXING IN               
SOME SN...BUT STILL MOSTLY RAIN. WILL HIT SN A LITTLE HARDER FOR                
CNTRL OHIO...BUT STILL KEEP LESS THAN AN INCH OF ACCUM. BACK EDGE OF            
PRECIP SHOULD WORK INTO FA BEGINNING EARLY AFTERNOON...SO ADDITIONAL            
UPDATE MAY BE NEEDED EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.                                      
.PRECIOUS DISCUSSION...                                                         
(ISSUED 645 AM EST SAT APR 2 2005)                                              
AVIATION (12Z-12Z)...                                                           
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE CENTERED OVER WEST VIRGINIA PAN HANDLE WILL                
TRACK SLOWLY EAST TODAY. 500 MB LOW IS CURRENTLY DROPPING SOUTH INTO            
KENTUCKY, WHICH IS ENHANCING WRAP AROUND PRECIP ON THE BACK OF THE              
SURFACE LOW. LIGHT SNOW IS OCCURRING AT DAY EVEN WITH TEMP AT 37.               
REST OF AREA IS REPORTING LIGHT RAIN.                                           
SLOW PROGRESS OF LOW MEANS PRECIP WILL CONTINUE INTO EVENING.                   
CEILINGS HAVE FALLEN TO MVFR AND WILL REMAIN SO UNTIL TONIGHT.                  
VISIBILITIES ARE GENERALLY VFR BUT STILL EXPECT MVFR LATER THIS                 
MORNING.                                                                        
WIND GUSTS OVER 30 KTS WILL OCCUR THROUGH MUCH OF THE FORECAST IN               
THE TIGHT GRADIENT BEHIND THE SURFACE LOW. CLEARING WILL OCCUR LATE             
TONIGHT AFTER THE LOW TRACKS TO THE EAST COAST.                                 
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)...                                           
AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL FLOW PATTERN WITH SHARP TROF OVER THE MS VLY              
CLOSING OFF OVER THE OH VALLEY THIS MORNING AND PIVOTING EWD INTO               
VA BY EVE AND THEN INTO THE MID ATLANTIC SUNDAY. 8H LOW TO TRACK                
ACRS SE OH EARLY TDA WITH AXIS OF FAVORABLE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE               
PIVOTING AROUND BACK SIDE INTO WRN OH. FAVORABLE FRONTOGENESIS IS               
INDICATED BTWN 600-650 MB FROM W CNTRL OH THRU THE MIAMI VALLEY.                
EXPECT TO SEE ENHANCED WRAP AROUND PRECIP ACRS THE AREA INTO THE                
EVE HOURS. ETA MODEL CONTS TO BE COLDER MODEL BUT IS NOT THE FAVORED            
SOLN. BOUNDARY LAYER STARTS OUT TOO WARM FOR SNOW WITH A FREEZING               
LEVEL ABOVE 1000 FEET. PREFER A SOLN CLOSER TO GFS. HAVE MODIFIED               
GFS THICKNESSES SLIGHTLY COOLER TO ALLOW A MIX WITH SNOW MAINLY THIS            
MORNING WHERE MORE FAVORABLE LIFT IS EXPECTED IN THE W. ANY SNOW                
ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED TO BE LESS THAN AN INCH WITH THE WARM                  
GROUND.                                                                         
REGARDING FLOOD WATCH...3 HOUR RAINFALL AMOUNTS HAVE BEEN BETWEEN               
.1 AND .3 INCHES WELL SHORT OF 3 HOUR FFG VALUES WHICH ARE AROUND               
ONE INCH. WITH DRY SLOT WORKING INTO FFA AREA DO NOT EXPECT TO SEE              
WIDESPREAD FLOODING. SOME MINOR RIVER FLOODING WL BE POSSIBLE DUE               
TO HI LEVELS OF FLOW BUT SINCE COUNTY FLOODING IS NOT ANTICIPATED               
HAVE DROPPED THE WATCH.                                                         
FOCUS SHIFTS TO HIGH WIND POTENTIAL. AS DEEP SFC LOW PRESS SHIFTS               
TO THE EAST COAST THE PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES ACROSS OHIO. NRLY             
925 MB WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 35 TO 40KTS AND CONTINUE               
INTO TONIGHT. EXPECT TO SEE SFC WINDS INCREASE TO 25 TO 35 MPH WITH             
WIND GUSTS TO 45 MPH. THEREFORE...HAVE PUT UP A WIND ADVSY FOR THE              
ENTIRE CWA UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY.                                                   
AS UPPER LOW LIFTS NE INTO NEW ENGLAND RDGG BEGINS TO BUILD INTO MS             
VLY SUNDAY INTO MON AND THEN BECOMES CENTERED OVER OH TUE. THIS WL              
OFFER DRY WX CONDITIONS WITH A WARMING TREND.                                   
&&                                                                              
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...                                                         
(ISSUED 310 PM EST FRI APR 2005)                                                
LONG TERM (MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...                                            
EARLY PORTION OF EXTENDED WILL REMAIN DRY AS SFC HIGH REMAINS IN                
PLACE AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS IN.  SFC WARM FRONT LIFTS ACROSS             
CWA EARLY TUESDAY.  ISENTROPIC LIFT IS WEAK...SO WILL KEEP THIS                 
PERIOD DRY.  LATEST GFSLR HAS NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FOR MIDDLE OF            
NEXT WEEK BROADER AND WEAKER.  LATEST ECMWF LOOKS SIMILAR TO                    
YESTERDAYS GFSLR.  THIS MESHES WITH CURRENT HPC FORECAST SO HAVE                
TRENDED TOWARD THIS SOLUTION.                                                   
&&                                                                              
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
OH...WIND ADVISORY FOR OHZ026-034-035-042>046-051>056-060>065-                  
     070>074-077>082-088 FROM 1 PM SATURDAY TO 6 AM SUNDAY.                     
KY...WIND ADVISORY FOR KYZ089>100 FROM 1 PM SATURDAY TO 6 AM SUNDAY.            
IN...WIND ADVISORY FOR INZ050-058-059-066-073>075-080 FROM 1 PM                 
     SATURDAY TO 6 AM SUNDAY.                                                   
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</PRE></TT></td>   oh                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA                                          
932 PM EST SAT APR 2 2005                                                       
.SHORT TERM (REST OF TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...                                   
MADE UPDATE AS RECENT RADAR AND SATELLITE DATA SHOW PIVOT POINT OF              
DEFORMATION LIFT ZONE STILL OVER BUTLER COUNTY PA...WITH SPOTTER                
REPORTS OF 3 TO 5 INCH SLUSHY SNOW ACCUMULATIONS. RUC MODEL SHOWS               
THE DEFORMATION LIFT ZONE REMAINING OVER WESTERN PA...SO                        
ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE WITH ADDITIONAL AREAS GETTING                 
SLUSHY SNOW AMOUNTS IN THE 2 TO 4 INCH RANGE.                                   
PER NAM MODEL SOUNDINGS...WINDS CAN GUST OVER 40 KTS (45 MPH) LATE              
TONIGHT INTO MIDDAY SUNDAY...SO THE WIND ADVISORY MAINTAINED.                   
&&                                                                              
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...                                                         
(ISSUED 315 PM EST SAT APR 2 2005)                                              
SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)...                                    
SURFACE LOW HAS CONSOLIDATED TO THE EAST AND WILL DEEPEN THROUGH                
SUNDAY WITH STRONG WINDS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS EVENING AND                   
CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY. WILL KEEP WIND ADVISORY AS IS. LATER                   
SHIFTS MAY NEED TO DECIDE IF UPGRADE TO HIGH WIND WARNING NEEDED FOR            
RIDGES. BACKLASH RAIN/SNOW WILL MOVE BACK EAST ACROSS CWA TONIGHT               
WITH COLDER AIR WRAPPING IN FROM WEST AND SOUTHWEST CHANGING RAIN TO            
SNOW ACROSS CWA. MODELS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON PLACEMENT OF QPF            
WITH USUAL TIMING DIFFERENCES. WILL GO WITH A WINTER STORM WARNING              
FOR SOUTHERN RIDGES AND WV MTNS/GARRETT MD LATER TONIGHT INTO MIDDAY            
SUNDAY WITH 5-9 INCHES ESPECIALLY HIGHER ELEVATIONS. REMAINDER                  
RIDGES AND NRN TIER OF CWA WILL BE CLOSE TO BEST DEFORMATION ZONE               
AND WENT WITH ADVISORY FOR 4-6 AS WARM GROUND SHOULD HELP KEEP                  
ACCUMULATIONS DOWN SOMEWHAT. WHILE RAINFALL THIS EVENING IN THE                 
NORTH WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED CHANCES OF SIGNIFICANT FLOODING                 
DECREASING THROUGH EVENING AND WILL CANCEL FLOOD WATCH.                         
LONG TERM (TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...                                         
WILL CONTINUE WITH DRY FORECAST FOR TUESDAY WITH WARM ADVECTION                 
KICKING IN LATE IN DAY. SEPARATE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN BRANCH                   
SYSTEMS SHOULD MERGE INTO ONE LOW OVER OHIO VALLEY DURING THURSDAY.             
THIS COMBINED SYSTEM SHOULD TRACK NORTHEAST INTO SOUTHERN NEW                   
ENGLAND BY SATURDAY. WILL MENTION CHANCE POPS FROM LATE WEDNESDAY               
THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.                                                           
AVIATION...                                                                     
MVFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF THIS                          
AFTERNOON...OCCASIONALLY LOWERING TO IFR IN RAIN AND FOG. SURFACE               
WINDS WILL BECOME NORTHWEST LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND                 
BECOMING QUITE STRONG AS A SURFACE LOW CONTINUES TO DEVELOP OVER                
VIRGINIA. EXPECT SUSTAINED WINDS AROUND 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT AT            
TIMES OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY. GENERALLY IFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST              
TONIGHT AS RAIN CHANGES OVER TO SNOW. CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO              
MVFR OVER EAST CENTRAL OHIO DURING SUNDAY MORNING.                              
PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                              
MD...WIND ADVISORY FOR MDZ001 FROM 8 PM SATURDAY TO 7 PM SUNDAY.                
  ...WINTER STORM WARNING FOR MDZ001 FROM MIDNIGHT SUNDAY TO NOON               
     SUNDAY.                                                                    
OH...WIND ADVISORY FOR OHZ039-OHZ040-OHZ041-OHZ048-OHZ049-OHZ050-               
     OHZ057-OHZ058-OHZ059-OHZ068-OHZ069 FROM 8 PM SATURDAY TO                   
     7 PM SUNDAY.                                                               
PA...WIND ADVISORY FOR PAZ007-PAZ008-PAZ009-PAZ013-PAZ014-PAZ015-               
     PAZ016-PAZ020-PAZ021-PAZ022-PAZ023-PAZ029-PAZ030-PAZ031-                   
     PAZ032 FROM 8 PM SATURDAY TO 7 PM SUNDAY.                                  
  ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR PAZ007-PAZ008-PAZ009-PAZ015-PAZ016-            
     PAZ023 FROM MIDNIGHT SUNDAY TO NOON SUNDAY.                                
  ...WINTER STORM WARNING FOR PAZ030-PAZ032 FROM MIDNIGHT SUNDAY TO             
     NOON SUNDAY.                                                               
WV...WIND ADVISORY FOR WVZ001-WVZ002-WVZ003-WVZ004-WVZ012-WVZ021-               
     WVZ022-WVZ023-WVZ041 FROM 8 PM SATURDAY TO 7 PM SUNDAY.                    
  ...WINTER STORM WARNING FOR WVZ023-WVZ041 FROM MIDNIGHT SUNDAY TO             
     NOON SUNDAY.                                                               
&&                                                                              
.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
MD...WIND ADVISORY FOR MDZ001 FROM 9 PM SATURDAY TO 7 PM SUNDAY.                
  ...WINTER STORM WARNING FOR MDZ001 FROM 9 PM SATURDAY TO NOON                 
     SUNDAY.                                                                    
OH...WIND ADVISORY FOR OHZ039-OHZ040-OHZ041-OHZ048-OHZ049-OHZ050-               
     OHZ057-OHZ058-OHZ059-OHZ068-OHZ069 FROM 9 PM SATURDAY TO                   
     7 PM SUNDAY.                                                               
PA...WIND ADVISORY FOR PAZ007-PAZ008-PAZ009-PAZ013-PAZ014-PAZ015-               
     PAZ016-PAZ020-PAZ021-PAZ022-PAZ023-PAZ029-PAZ030-PAZ031-                   
     PAZ032 FROM 9 PM SATURDAY TO 7 PM SUNDAY.                                  
  ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR PAZ007-PAZ008-PAZ009-PAZ015-PAZ016-            
     PAZ023 FROM 9 PM SATURDAY TO NOON SUNDAY.                                  
  ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR PAZ014-PAZ022 FROM 9 PM SATURDAY               
     TO 1 AM SUNDAY.                                                            
  ...WINTER STORM WARNING FOR PAZ030-PAZ032 FROM 9 PM SATURDAY TO               
     NOON SUNDAY.                                                               
WV...WIND ADVISORY FOR WVZ001-WVZ002-WVZ003-WVZ004-WVZ012-WVZ021-               
     WVZ022-WVZ023-WVZ041 FROM 9 PM SATURDAY TO 7 PM SUNDAY.                    
  ...WINTER STORM WARNING FOR WVZ023-WVZ041 FROM 9 PM SATURDAY TO               
     NOON SUNDAY.                                                               
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</PRE></TT></td>   pa                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN                                           
825 PM CST SAT APR 2 2005                                                       
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
SKIES WERE MOSTLY CLEAR ACROSS MIDDLE TENNESSEE THIS EVENING, WITH              
TEMPERATURES SLIDING THROUGH THE 40S AT MOST LOCATIONS.                         
STILL EXPECT SURFACE RIDGE TO BUILD ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT AND               
BRING DECREASING WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. LATEST RUC SUGGESTS              
WINDS MAY STAY IN THE 5 TO 10 MPH RANGE ALONG THE PLATEAU, WHILE                
DROPPING TO AROUND 5 MPH AT MOST OTHER SPOTS.                                   
WINDS WILL PROBABLY HELP PREVENT TEMPERATURES FROM BOTTOMING OUT                
AT THE DEWPOINT. CURRENT ZFP PROJECTION OF MID 30S FOR MINIMUM                  
TEMEPRATURES OVER MOST OF MIDDLE TENNESSEE REMAINS REASONABLE,                  
ALTHOUGH LATEST MODELS HAVE SHOWN A TREND TOWARD KEEPING                        
THINGS A TAD WARMER (PROBABLY DUE TO OVERNIGHT MIXING IN THE                    
BOUNDARY LAYER). NEVERTHELESS, BELIEVE COOP STATIONS WILL END UP                
A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN WHAT IS REPRESENTED BY THE BNA MOS NUMBERS            
(AS THEY OFTEN ARE). THUS, HAVE LEFT MOST FIRST PERIOD TEMPERATURE              
EXPECTATIONS ALONE.                                                             
.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
TN...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
19                                                                              
</PRE></TT></td>   tn                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE                                               
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA                                           
1230 PM EST SAT APR 2 2005                                                      
UPDATED TO REMOVE FLOOD WATCH HEADLINES AND REFRESH AFTERNOON                   
WORDING. EVENT ENDING WEST TO EAST ACROSS CWA AS FRONT PROGRESSES               
SLOWLY TO THE COAST.                                                            
____________________________________________________________________            
RADAR/SAT SHOWS BULK OF PRECIP AS WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND SCATTERED              
TSTMS...LINE OF STRONGER INTENSITIES MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL PIEDMONT            
WITH RAINFALL RATES BETWEEN .25 AND .50 INCHES PER HOUR. WILL                   
CONTINUE FLOOD WATCH TO EXPIRATION OF 20Z. TEMPS HOLDING IN THE 60S.            
FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE ATTM. WINDS EXPECTED TO APPROACH ADVISORY                
CRITERIA TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS LOW TIGHTENS TO THE NORTH...SO WILL             
CONSIDER ISSUING WIND WARNING WITH NEXT PACKAGE.                                
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
EXPECT IFR/LIFR CONDS FOR MOST OF THE AREA THRU ERLY                            
AFTN...DUE TO SHRAS/POSSIBLE TSRAS WITH FRNT.  VFR/MVFR LATER THIS              
AFTN AFTR FRNTL PASSAGE.                                                        
&&                                                                              
.MARINE...                                                                      
UPDATED TO INCREASE FORECASTED WIND SPEEDS THROUGHOUT...ALSO RAISED             
WAVE HEIGHTS ON CURRITUCK SOUND DUE TO FETCH IN DEEPER CHANNELS.                
INCRSNG S WNDS THIS MORNG IN ADVANCE OF LO PRES AND APPROACHING COLD            
FRNT. STRNG SCA CONDS BAY/SND...WITH GUSTS TO GALE CONDS ON CST.                
FRNT PUSHES OFF THE CST LATER THIS AFTN...BUT STRNG LO PRES TO THE              
N/NE WILL MAINTAIN SCA CONDS TNGT INTO SUN NGT.                                 
&&                                                                              
.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
MD...NONE.                                                                      
NC...NONE.                                                                      
VA...FLOOD WATCH FOR ZONES VAZ048-049-060>071-079-080.                          
MARINE...GALE WARNING FOR ANZ650-652-654-656-658.                               
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ANZ630>633.                                            
&&                                                                              
PREVIOUS AFD BELOW                                                              
________________________________________________________________                
.SHORT TERM (TODAY)...                                                          
LIKELY TO BE BUSY DAY COMING UP...CNVTN MVG THROUGH SE CONUS PAST               
18-24 HRS HAS LMTD PCPN ACRS RGN. TRENDS OF CNVTN INVOF SE CST ON               
THE WANE ATTM...SUGGS THAT TRANSITION TO BETTER PCPN DVLPMNT FARTHER            
N AHD OF CDFNT CRSG MTNS THROUGH THE MORNING HRS. ALREADY...AT LEAST            
SCTD RW+ MVG N THROUGH CNTRL/NRN SXNS. SFC WMFNT MVG N INTO FA                  
ATTM...AND WL BE AWAITING TRAILING CDFNT FM THE WSW BY THE                      
MIDDAY/ERY AFTN HRS (WHICH REACHES THE CST LT). 06Z RUC SHOWING                 
INCRSG LLVL INSTABILITY/SHR PTNTL AXIS                                          
AHD OF CDFNT. LIKELY WON'T BE WDSPRD SHIELD OF HVY RA...BUT ENUF                
CVRG TO KP FFA WHR SOIL CONDS MOST SATURATED (W OF I95).                        
ADDTNLLY...MUCH OF FA IN SLGT RISK SVR...WL BE WATCHING FOR PTNTL               
SQLN DVLPMNT INVOF CDFNT REACHING AREA BY MID/LT MORNING AND                    
PROGRESSING E. MAIN THREAT STRNG WNDS. W/ COLD CORE ALOFT ARRIVING              
FM W DURG AFTN/EVE...PSBL REDVLPMNT OF SHRAS/TSRAS (HAIL/GSTY                   
WNDS??). LASTLY...PTNTL FOR MOD/STRNG GRAD S WNDS (ESP NR CST)                  
TDA...SO GALES ON OCN...MENTIONING SPDS TO 35 MPH FM ERN SHR TO CSTL            
NE NC.                                                                          
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)...                                        
LO PRES SLO TO DEPART TNGT/SUN. KPG PLNTY OF SC ACRS AREA...EVEN LO             
CHC POPS...ESP NRN HALF...INTO SUN AFTN. WNW WNDS RMNG MOD. DRIER WX            
AND AT LEAST SEASONABLE TEMPS MON THROUGH WED.                                  
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
22                                                                              
</PRE></TT></td>   va                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA                                           
1000 AM EST FRI APR 1 2005                                                      
RADAR/SAT SHOWS BULK OF PRECIP AS WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND SCATTERED              
TSTMS...LINE OF STRONGER INTENSITIES MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL PIEDMONT            
WITH RAINFALL RATES BETWEEN .25 AND .50 INCHES PER HOUR. WILL                   
CONTINUE FLOOD WATCH TO EXPIRATION OF 20Z. TEMPS HOLDING IN THE 60S.            
FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE ATTM. WINDS EXPECTED TO APPROACH ADVISORY                
CRITERIA TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS LOW TIGHTENS TO THE NORTH...SO WILL             
CONSIDER ISSUING WIND WARNING WITH NEXT PACKAGE.                                
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
EXPECT IFR/LIFR CONDS FOR MOST OF THE AREA THRU ERLY                            
AFTN...DUE TO SHRAS/POSSIBLE TSRAS WITH FRNT.  VFR/MVFR LATER THIS              
AFTN AFTR FRNTL PASSAGE.                                                        
&&                                                                              
.MARINE...                                                                      
UPDATED TO INCREASE FORECASTED WIND SPEEDS THROUGHOUT...ALSO RAISED             
WAVE HEIGHTS ON CURRITUCK SOUND DUE TO FETCH IN DEEPER CHANNELS.                
INCRSNG S WNDS THIS MORNG IN ADVANCE OF LO PRES AND APPROACHING COLD            
FRNT. STRNG SCA CONDS BAY/SND...WITH GUSTS TO GALE CONDS ON CST.                
FRNT PUSHES OFF THE CST LATER THIS AFTN...BUT STRNG LO PRES TO THE              
N/NE WILL MAINTAIN SCA CONDS TNGT INTO SUN NGT.                                 
&&                                                                              
.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
MD...NONE.                                                                      
NC...NONE.                                                                      
VA...FLOOD WATCH FOR ZONES VAZ048-049-060>071-079-080.                          
MARINE...GALE WARNING FOR ANZ650-652-654-656-658.                               
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ANZ630>633.                                            
&&                                                                              
PREVIOUS AFD BELOW                                                              
________________________________________________________________                
.SHORT TERM (TODAY)...                                                          
LIKELY TO BE BUSY DAY COMING UP...CNVTN MVG THROUGH SE CONUS PAST               
18-24 HRS HAS LMTD PCPN ACRS RGN. TRENDS OF CNVTN INVOF SE CST ON               
THE WANE ATTM...SUGGS THAT TRANSITION TO BETTER PCPN DVLPMNT FARTHER            
N AHD OF CDFNT CRSG MTNS THROUGH THE MORNING HRS. ALREADY...AT LEAST            
SCTD RW+ MVG N THROUGH CNTRL/NRN SXNS. SFC WMFNT MVG N INTO FA                  
ATTM...AND WL BE AWAITING TRAILING CDFNT FM THE WSW BY THE                      
MIDDAY/ERY AFTN HRS (WHICH REACHES THE CST LT). 06Z RUC SHOWING                 
INCRSG LLVL INSTABILITY/SHR PTNTL AXIS                                          
AHD OF CDFNT. LIKELY WON'T BE WDSPRD SHIELD OF HVY RA...BUT ENUF                
CVRG TO KP FFA WHR SOIL CONDS MOST SATURATED (W OF I95).                        
ADDTNLLY...MUCH OF FA IN SLGT RISK SVR...WL BE WATCHING FOR PTNTL               
SQLN DVLPMNT INVOF CDFNT REACHING AREA BY MID/LT MORNING AND                    
PROGRESSING E. MAIN THREAT STRNG WNDS. W/ COLD CORE ALOFT ARRIVING              
FM W DURG AFTN/EVE...PSBL REDVLPMNT OF SHRAS/TSRAS (HAIL/GSTY                   
WNDS??). LASTLY...PTNTL FOR MOD/STRNG GRAD S WNDS (ESP NR CST)                  
TDA...SO GALES ON OCN...MENTIONING SPDS TO 35 MPH FM ERN SHR TO CSTL            
NE NC.                                                                          
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)...                                        
LO PRES SLO TO DEPART TNGT/SUN. KPG PLNTY OF SC ACRS AREA...EVEN LO             
CHC POPS...ESP NRN HALF...INTO SUN AFTN. WNW WNDS RMNG MOD. DRIER WX            
AND AT LEAST SEASONABLE TEMPS MON THROUGH WED.                                  
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
22                                                                              
</PRE></TT></td>   va                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV                                          
345 PM EST SAT APR 2 2005                                                       
.SHORT TERM (REST OF TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)...                                 
UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST ACROSS PORTIONS OF OHIO AND WEST               
VIRGINIA.  BEST PRECIPITATION IS WEST OF THIS FEATURE AND THIS TREND            
SHOULD CONTINUE.                                                                
PRECIPITATION ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA IS CURRENTLY IN THE FORM OF               
RAIN...WITH A MIXTURE ACROSS SOUTHEAST OHIO AND THE WEST VIRGINIA               
COUNTIES.                                                                       
AS AIRMASS COOLS...FEEL PRECIPITATION WILL MIX WITH AND CHANGE TO               
SNOW OVER MOST LOCATIONS BY MORNING.                                            
LATEST GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE BEST QPF OVERNIGHT WILL BE                
ACROSS OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES.  COMBINATION OF HIGHEST QPF AND                   
COOLING TEMPERATURES SUGGEST THE BEST CHANCES FOR HEAVY SNOW WILL BE            
ACROSS THE NORTHERN MOUNTAIN COUNTIES WITH LESSOR AMOUNTS IN THE                
ADJACENT COUNTIES.                                                              
HAVE DECIDED TO ISSUE WINTER STORM WARNING IN RANDOLPH AND                      
POCAHONTAS COUNTIES FOR 4-7 INCHES OVERNIGHT.  IN ADDITION...WINTER             
WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR BARBOUR...UPSHUR...WEBSTER AND             
NICHOLAS COUNTIES FOR 2 -4 INCHES.  LATEST SNOW GRIDS INDICATE UP TO            
3 INCHES OF SNOW IN THE MOUNTAINS ACROSS FAYETTE AND RALEIGH                    
COUNTIES...SO THOSE COUNTIES WILL ALSO HAVE TO BE MONITORED.                    
PLAN ON MAINTAINING THE WIND ADVISORY AS LATEST GUIDANCE SHOWS GUSTY            
WINDS WILL DEVELOP TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY.  WIND GUSTS WILL APPROACH               
ADVISORY CRITERIA ACROSS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS...WITH HIGHER GUSTS               
EXPECTED IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS.  THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS MAY SEE              
WIND GUSTS EXCEED 50 KNOTS...BUT ONLY THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS SHOULD             
SEE THESE HIGH WINDS.                                                           
PRECIPITATION SHOULD TAPER OFF FROM THE WEST ON SUNDAY AS THE SYSTEM            
MOVES AWAY.                                                                     
&&                                                                              
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...                                                         
(ISSUED 158 PM EST SAT APR 2 2005)                                              
LONG TERM (SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)...                                    
WINDS WILL BE ON THE DECREASE SUNDAY NIGHT...AS PRESSURE GRADIENT               
WEAKENS WITH NE MOVING LOW.  STILL HAVE SOME HIGHER GUSTS AROUND                
30-35 MPH EARLY...MAINLY ACROSS THE HIGHEST TERRAIN.                            
KEEPING THE MID TERM OF THIS FORECAST DRY FOR NOW (SUNDAY NIGHT                 
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT).  MAIN CONCERN PRECIPITATION WISE WILL BE FOR            
TUESDAY NIGHT...AS WEAK WARM FRONT FROM NEXT SYSTEM PUSHES                      
NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE CWA.  WITH THIS WARM FRONT...WILL CONTINUE             
TO KEEP OVERNIGHT TEMPS WARMER THAN GUIDANCE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO                 
WEDNESDAY.  OVERALL...HIGH PRESSURE WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL                 
REMAIN IN CONTROL THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.                                        
IN THE LONG TERM...GUIDANCE CONSISTENT BRINGING WEATHER ASSOCIATED              
WITH LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE OHIO VALLEY                  
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. GFS SHOWS DEEP LOW PRESSURE VERTICALLY STACK,                  
PRECIPITABLE WATER OF 1 INCH...NEAR ZERO LIFTED INDEX AND SOME CAPE             
LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. GFS KEEPS THE LOW PRESSURE NEARLY STATIONARY              
OVER WEST VIRGINIA FROM THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. THIS SITUATION               
WILL KEEP ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE OVER THE AREA WHICH MAY                   
PROLONG PRECIPITATION ACTIVITY. THE PRECIPITATION LOOKS LIKE WILL BE            
ALL RAIN PER H8 TEMPERATURES ABOVE FREEZING WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.             
THEN...A THERMAL TROUGH WITH H8 TEMPERATURES IN NEAR -4 DEGREES                 
MOVES IN OVER THE AREA BRINGING COLD AND DRY AIR MASS.                          
HPC FRONTS/PRESSURE PLOTS BRING THE LOW AND ITS ASSOCIATED FRONTS               
SLOWER ON THURSDAY MORNING FINALLY EXITING THE AREA BY FRIDAY                   
MORNING...SIMILAR TO ECMWF.                                                     
KEPT POPS AND WEATHER WITH THE SAME TIMING FROM THE PAST COUPLE OF              
DAYS WITH POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS....AND MAINTAIN DRY FRIDAY AND                 
SATURDAY. TWEAKED TEMPERATURES UP PER MEX GUIDANCE BEEN HIGHER THAN             
PREVIOUS DAYS...ALTHOUGH WENT COOLER THAN MEX WED AND THU...AND                 
SLIGHTLY WARMER OR CLOSE TO FRI AND SATURDAY.                                   
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...                                                          
(ISSUED 1245 PM EST SAT APR 2 2005)                                             
AVIATION...                                                                     
RADAR SHOWS PRECIPITATION OVER OHIO MOVING AROUND A LOW PRESSURE                
CENTER. THIS PRECIPITATION WILL REACH HTS AND CRW AROUND 19Z AS                 
RAIN...THEN TURNING INTO A MIX OF RA/SN AROUND 21Z...AND THEN TO                
PROBABLY ALL SNOW AROUND 04Z. THESE CONDITIONS WILL SPREAD TO THE               
REST OF THE SITES DURING THE LATE NIGHT AND OVERNIGHT HOURS. THESE              
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE CREATING IFR CEILINGS. IFR/LIFR                        
VISIBILITIES TOWARDS EARLY MORNING.                                             
SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL SHIFT NORTHWEST BY EARLY AFTERNOON AT HTS...                
SPREADING TO CRW...AND THEN TO PKB AND BKW LATER TONIGHT. WIND GUSTS            
FROM 25 TO 35 KNOTS WERE FORECASTED WITH THE SHOWERS. CONDITIONS                
WILL IMPROVE SUNDAY ALTHOUGH LOW CEILINGS MAY STILL PRESENT DURING              
THE MORNING HOURS.                                                              
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...                                                          
(ISSUED 1052 AM EST SAT APR 2 2005)                                             
SHORT TERM (REST OF TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)...                                   
CURRENT RADAR DATA AND WV IMAGERY SHOWS MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROF IS             
LOCATED NEAR PERRY COUNTY OH...WITH A LARGE AREA OF RAIN/SNOW IN                
THE VICINITY OF THE TROF.  OTHER PATCHES OF RAIN WERE MOVING                    
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.                                             
RUC MODEL SEEMS TO HAVE THE BEST HANDLE ON THE LOCATION OF THE                  
TROF.  THE TROF AND THE UPPER LOW WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE REGION              
THIS AFTERNOON...WITH THE NEST CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION BEING NEAR              
THESE FEATURES.                                                                 
HAVE BUMPED TEMPERATURES FOR THIS AFTERNOON DOWN A FEW DEGREES AS               
CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION SHOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM MOVING MUCH.             
CURRENT THINKING IS TO LET THE FLOOD WATCH EXPIRE AT NOON AS THERE              
HAVE NOT REALLY BEEN ANY WATER PROBLEMS.  LATEST MODELS SUGGEST                 
THERE MAY BE A SMALL THREAT OF SOME HEAVIER RAIN AMOUNTS ACROSS OUR             
NORTHERN WEST VIRGINIA EARLY TONIGHT.  BUT THIS AREA DID NOT RECEIVE            
VERY HEAVY RAIN OVERNIGHT AND THERE WILL BE SEVERAL HOURS OF                    
RELATIVELY DRY WEATHER BEFORE THE PRECIPITATION MOVES BACK IN.  WILL            
JUST HAVE TO MONITOR THIS AREA THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS FOR                    
POSSIBLE WATER PROBLEMS.                                                        
WIND ADVISORY FOR TONIGHT STILL LOOKS TO BE ON TRACK AS THE                     
ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW DEEPENS AND MOVES SLOWLY EAST.                           
WILL NOT MAKE ANY CHANGES TO WINTER STORM WATCH AT THIS TIME.  BUT              
WILL TAKE A LOOK AT ALL OF THE MODELS AND MAKE A DECISION EARLY                 
THIS AFTERNOON ON WHETHER A WARNING IS NEEDED.                                  
&&                                                                              
.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
WV...WIND ADVISORY FOR WVZ005>011-013>020-024>040-046-047 FROM 7 PM             
     SATURDAY TO 4 PM SUNDAY.                                                   
  ...WINTER STORM WARNING FOR WVZ046-047 FROM 7 PM SATURDAY TO 11 AM            
     SUNDAY.                                                                    
  ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR WVZ037>040 FROM 7 PM SATURDAY TO               
     11 AM SUNDAY.                                                              
OH...WIND ADVISORY FOR OHZ066-067-075-076-083>087 FROM 7 PM                     
     SATURDAY TO 4 PM SUNDAY.                                                   
KY...WIND ADVISORY FOR KYZ101>103-105 FROM 7 PM SATURDAY TO 4 PM                
     SUNDAY.                                                                    
VA...WIND ADVISORY FOR VAZ003-004 FROM 7 PM SATURDAY TO 4 PM SUNDAY.            
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHORT TERM...JSH                                                                
</PRE></TT></td>   wv                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV                                          
158 PM EST SAT APR 2 2005                                                       
.LONG TERM (SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)...                                   
WINDS WILL BE ON THE DECREASE SUNDAY NIGHT...AS PRESSURE GRADIENT               
WEAKENS WITH NE MOVING LOW.  STILL HAVE SOME HIGHER GUSTS AROUND                
30-35 MPH EARLY...MAINLY ACROSS THE HIGHEST TERRAIN.                            
KEEPING THE MID TERM OF THIS FORECAST DRY FOR NOW (SUNDAY NIGHT                 
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT).  MAIN CONCERN PRECIPITATION WISE WILL BE FOR            
TUESDAY NIGHT...AS WEAK WARM FRONT FROM NEXT SYSTEM PUSHES                      
NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE CWA.  WITH THIS WARM FRONT...WILL CONTINUE             
TO KEEP OVERNIGHT TEMPS WARMER THAN GUIDANCE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO                 
WEDNESDAY.  OVERALL...HIGH PRESSURE WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL                 
REMAIN IN CONTROL THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.                                        
IN THE LONG TERM...GUIDANCE CONSISTENT BRINGING WEATHER ASSOCIATED              
WITH LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE OHIO VALLEY                  
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. GFS SHOWS DEEP LOW PRESSURE VERTICALLY STACK,                  
PRECIPITABLE WATER OF 1 INCH...NEAR ZERO LIFTED INDEX AND SOME CAPE             
LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. GFS KEEPS THE LOW PRESSURE NEARLY STATIONARY              
OVER WEST VIRGINIA FROM THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. THIS SITUATION               
WILL KEEP ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE OVER THE AREA WHICH MAY                   
PROLONG PRECIPITATION ACTIVITY. THE PRECIPITATION LOOKS LIKE WILL BE            
ALL RAIN PER H8 TEMPERATURES ABOVE FREEZING WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.             
THEN...A THERMAL TROUGH WITH H8 TEMPERATURES IN NEAR -4 DEGREES                 
MOVES IN OVER THE AREA BRINGING COLD AND DRY AIR MASS.                          
HPC FRONTS/PRESSURE PLOTS BRING THE LOW AND ITS ASSOCIATED FRONTS               
SLOWER ON THURSDAY MORNING FINALLY EXITING THE AREA BY FRIDAY                   
MORNING...SIMILAR TO ECMWF.                                                     
KEPT POPS AND WEATHER WITH THE SAME TIMING FROM THE PAST COUPLE OF              
DAYS WITH POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS....AND MAINTAIN DRY FRIDAY AND                 
SATURDAY. TWEAKED TEMPERATURES UP PER MEX GUIDANCE BEEN HIGHER THAN             
PREVIOUS DAYS...ALTHOUGH WENT COOLER THAN MEX WED AND THU...AND                 
SLIGHTLY WARMER OR CLOSE TO FRI AND SATURDAY.                                   
&&                                                                              
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...                                                         
(ISSUED 1245 PM EST SAT APR 2 2005)                                             
AVIATION...                                                                     
RADAR SHOWS PRECIPITATION OVER OHIO MOVING AROUND A LOW PRESSURE                
CENTER. THIS PRECIPITATION WILL REACH HTS AND CRW AROUND 19Z AS                 
RAIN...THEN TURNING INTO A MIX OF RA/SN AROUND 21Z...AND THEN TO                
PROBABLY ALL SNOW AROUND 04Z. THESE CONDITIONS WILL SPREAD TO THE               
REST OF THE SITES DURING THE LATE NIGHT AND OVERNIGHT HOURS. THESE              
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE CREATING IFR CEILINGS. IFR/LIFR                        
VISIBILITIES TOWARDS EARLY MORNING.                                             
SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL SHIFT NORTHWEST BY EARLY AFTERNOON AT HTS...                
SPREADING TO CRW...AND THEN TO PKB AND BKW LATER TONIGHT. WIND GUSTS            
FROM 25 TO 35 KNOTS WERE FORECASTED WITH THE SHOWERS. CONDITIONS                
WILL IMPROVE SUNDAY ALTHOUGH LOW CEILINGS MAY STILL PRESENT DURING              
THE MORNING HOURS.                                                              
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...                                                          
(ISSUED 1052 AM EST SAT APR 2 2005)                                             
SHORT TERM (REST OF TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)...                                   
CURRENT RADAR DATA AND WV IMAGERY SHOWS MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROF IS             
LOCATED NEAR PERRY COUNTY OH...WITH A LARGE AREA OF RAIN/SNOW IN                
THE VICINITY OF THE TROF.  OTHER PATCHES OF RAIN WERE MOVING                    
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.                                             
RUC MODEL SEEMS TO HAVE THE BEST HANDLE ON THE LOCATION OF THE                  
TROF.  THE TROF AND THE UPPER LOW WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE REGION              
THIS AFTERNOON...WITH THE NEST CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION BEING NEAR              
THESE FEATURES.                                                                 
HAVE BUMPED TEMPERATURES FOR THIS AFTERNOON DOWN A FEW DEGREES AS               
CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION SHOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM MOVING MUCH.             
CURRENT THINKING IS TO LET THE FLOOD WATCH EXPIRE AT NOON AS THERE              
HAVE NOT REALLY BEEN ANY WATER PROBLEMS.  LATEST MODELS SUGGEST                 
THERE MAY BE A SMALL THREAT OF SOME HEAVIER RAIN AMOUNTS ACROSS OUR             
NORTHERN WEST VIRGINIA EARLY TONIGHT.  BUT THIS AREA DID NOT RECEIVE            
VERY HEAVY RAIN OVERNIGHT AND THERE WILL BE SEVERAL HOURS OF                    
RELATIVELY DRY WEATHER BEFORE THE PRECIPITATION MOVES BACK IN.  WILL            
JUST HAVE TO MONITOR THIS AREA THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS FOR                    
POSSIBLE WATER PROBLEMS.                                                        
WIND ADVISORY FOR TONIGHT STILL LOOKS TO BE ON TRACK AS THE                     
ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW DEEPENS AND MOVES SLOWLY EAST.                           
WILL NOT MAKE ANY CHANGES TO WINTER STORM WATCH AT THIS TIME.  BUT              
WILL TAKE A LOOK AT ALL OF THE MODELS AND MAKE A DECISION EARLY                 
THIS AFTERNOON ON WHETHER A WARNING IS NEEDED.                                  
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...                                                          
(ISSUED 452 AM EST SAT APR 2 2005)                                              
LONG TERM (SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)...                                      
FIGURING ON SNOW COVER IN NE COUNTIES...SO LOWERED MIN TEMP FOR                 
SUNDAY NIGHT WITH THE CLEARING.  ALSO LOWERED MAX TEMP A BIT FOR                
MONDAY IN NE WV.  WEAK WARM FRONTAL ZONE TRIES TO SET UP LATE MONDAY            
INTO TUESDAY.  GFS HAS A BIT MORE MOISTURE THAN NAM.  LEAVING DRY AT            
THIS TIME.                                                                      
TOO ACTIVE/BUSY SHORT RANGE TO REEVALUATE WED-FRI TIME FRAME.                   
HYDROLOGY...                                                                    
RAINFALL TOTALS HAVE EXCEEDED AN INCH IN PARTS OF OH AND KY WITH                
HIGHEST AMOUNTS IN THE 1.25 TO 1.5 INCH RANGE.  CALLS MADE TO                   
COUNTIES WITH THE MOST RAINFALL HAVE YIELDED NO REPORTS OF FLOODING             
PROBLEMS ALTHOUGH THERE HAS BEEN PONDING ON ROADWAYS.                           
THE HEAVIEST OF THE RAIN HAS PULLED OUT OF NORTHEASTERN KENTUCKY AND            
WAS SLOWLY PUSHING OUT OF WESTERN WEST VIRGINIA AND EASTERN OHIO.               
THIS RAIN WILL NEED MONITORED OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.  THE                 
WRAP AROUND RAIN BACK IN CENTRAL OHIO WILL ALSO AFFECT THESE AREAS              
LATER THIS MORNING AND COULD STILL BE ENOUGH TO...TOGETHER WITH THE             
EARLIER RAINFALL...TRIGGER SOME WATER PROBLEMS.                                 
RIVERS HAVE BEGUN TO SHOW A RISE BUT REMAIN WELL BELOW FLOOD STAGE              
AND ARE FOLLOWING OUR FORECASTS REASONABLY CLOSELY.  ANOTHER STRONG             
RISE IS FORECAST ON THE HOCKING.  IT IS AGAIN FORECAST TO CREST                 
CLOSE TO FLOOD STAGE SUNDAY MORNING.  THIS WILL NEED CLOSELY                    
MONITORED.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
WV...WIND ADVISORY FOR WVZ005>011-013>020-024>040-046-047 FROM 7 PM             
     SATURDAY TO 4 PM SUNDAY.                                                   
  ...WINTER STORM WATCH FOR WVZ038>040-046-047 FROM 7 PM SATURDAY               
     TO NOON SUNDAY.                                                            
OH...WIND ADVISORY FOR OHZ066-067-075-076-083>087 FROM 7 PM                     
     SATURDAY TO 4 PM SUNDAY.                                                   
KY...WIND ADVISORY FOR KYZ101>103-105 FROM 7 PM SATURDAY TO 4 PM                
     SUNDAY.                                                                    
VA...WIND ADVISORY FOR VAZ003-004 FROM 7 PM SATURDAY TO 4 PM SUNDAY.            
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
LONG TERM...KF/ARJ                                                              
</PRE></TT></td>   wv                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV                                          
1245 PM EST SAT APR 2 2005                                                      
.AVIATION...                                                                    
RADAR SHOWS PRECIPITATION OVER OHIO MOVING AROUND A LOW PRESSURE                
CENTER. THIS PRECIPITATION WILL REACH HTS AND CRW AROUND 19Z AS                 
RAIN...THEN TURNING INTO A MIX OF RA/SN AROUND 21Z...AND THEN TO                
PROBABLY ALL SNOW AROUND 04Z. THESE CONDITIONS WILL SPREAD TO THE               
REST OF THE SITES DURING THE LATE NIGHT AND OVERNIGHT HOURS. THESE              
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE CREATING IFR CEILINGS. IFR/LIFR                        
VISIBILITIES TOWARDS EARLY MORNING.                                             
SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL SHIFT NORTHWEST BY EARLY AFTERNOON AT HTS...                
SPREADING TO CRW...AND THEN TO PKB AND BKW LATER TONIGHT. WIND GUSTS            
FROM 25 TO 35 KNOTS WERE FORECASTED WITH THE SHOWERS. CONDITIONS                
WILL IMPROVE SUNDAY ALTHOUGH LOW CEILINGS MAY STILL PRESENT DURING              
THE MORNING HOURS.                                                              
&&                                                                              
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...                                                         
(ISSUED 1052 AM EST SAT APR 2 2005)                                             
SHORT TERM (REST OF TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)...                                   
CURRENT RADAR DATA AND WV IMAGERY SHOWS MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROF IS             
LOCATED NEAR PERRY COUNTY OH...WITH A LARGE AREA OF RAIN/SNOW IN                
THE VICINITY OF THE TROF.  OTHER PATCHES OF RAIN WERE MOVING                    
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.                                             
RUC MODEL SEEMS TO HAVE THE BEST HANDLE ON THE LOCATION OF THE                  
TROF.  THE TROF AND THE UPPER LOW WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE REGION              
THIS AFTERNOON...WITH THE NEST CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION BEING NEAR              
THESE FEATURES.                                                                 
HAVE BUMPED TEMPERATURES FOR THIS AFTERNOON DOWN A FEW DEGREES AS               
CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION SHOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM MOVING MUCH.             
CURRENT THINKING IS TO LET THE FLOOD WATCH EXPIRE AT NOON AS THERE              
HAVE NOT REALLY BEEN ANY WATER PROBLEMS.  LATEST MODELS SUGGEST                 
THERE MAY BE A SMALL THREAT OF SOME HEAVIER RAIN AMOUNTS ACROSS OUR             
NORTHERN WEST VIRGINIA EARLY TONIGHT.  BUT THIS AREA DID NOT RECEIVE            
VERY HEAVY RAIN OVERNIGHT AND THERE WILL BE SEVERAL HOURS OF                    
RELATIVELY DRY WEATHER BEFORE THE PRECIPITATION MOVES BACK IN.  WILL            
JUST HAVE TO MONITOR THIS AREA THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS FOR                    
POSSIBLE WATER PROBLEMS.                                                        
WIND ADVISORY FOR TONIGHT STILL LOOKS TO BE ON TRACK AS THE                     
ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW DEEPENS AND MOVES SLOWLY EAST.                           
WILL NOT MAKE ANY CHANGES TO WINTER STORM WATCH AT THIS TIME.  BUT              
WILL TAKE A LOOK AT ALL OF THE MODELS AND MAKE A DECISION EARLY                 
THIS AFTERNOON ON WHETHER A WARNING IS NEEDED.                                  
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...                                                          
(ISSUED 630 AM EST SAT APR 2 2005)                                              
AVIATION (12Z TO 12Z)...                                                        
WILL FORECAST TRENDS A FEW HOURS FASTER THAN EVEN THE 06Z NAM                   
SUGGESTS.  WIND SHIFT TO SW UNDER THE DEEPENING SFC LOW                         
WAS FASTER MOVING E ACROSS WV BETWEEN 07-11Z.                                   
LULL MOVING INTO HTS-CRW-BKW REGION FOR 12-16Z..LIFTG TOWARD                    
CKB-EKN 15-18Z.  WRAP AROUND MOISTURE AND LOWERING FREEZING LEVEL               
MOVING QUICKLY INTO HTS-CRW-BKW ON S 15-21Z...THEN LIFTG N 18Z-00Z.             
WAS FASTER IN MIXING SOME FLAKES TO SURFACE.                                    
CEILINGS AND VISIBILITY IMPROVING HTS-CRW-BKW FM 06-12Z BUT                     
LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS CKB-EKN THRU 12Z SUNDAY.                                 
STRONG LOW LEVEL WIND FLOW THRU PD.                                             
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...                                                          
(ISSUED 452 AM EST SAT APR 2 2005)                                              
LONG TERM (SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)...                                      
FIGURING ON SNOW COVER IN NE COUNTIES...SO LOWERED MIN TEMP FOR                 
SUNDAY NIGHT WITH THE CLEARING.  ALSO LOWERED MAX TEMP A BIT FOR                
MONDAY IN NE WV.  WEAK WARM FRONTAL ZONE TRIES TO SET UP LATE MONDAY            
INTO TUESDAY.  GFS HAS A BIT MORE MOISTURE THAN NAM.  LEAVING DRY AT            
THIS TIME.                                                                      
TOO ACTIVE/BUSY SHORT RANGE TO REEVALUATE WED-FRI TIME FRAME.                   
HYDROLOGY...                                                                    
RAINFALL TOTALS HAVE EXCEEDED AN INCH IN PARTS OF OH AND KY WITH                
HIGHEST AMOUNTS IN THE 1.25 TO 1.5 INCH RANGE.  CALLS MADE TO                   
COUNTIES WITH THE MOST RAINFALL HAVE YIELDED NO REPORTS OF FLOODING             
PROBLEMS ALTHOUGH THERE HAS BEEN PONDING ON ROADWAYS.                           
THE HEAVIEST OF THE RAIN HAS PULLED OUT OF NORTHEASTERN KENTUCKY AND            
WAS SLOWLY PUSHING OUT OF WESTERN WEST VIRGINIA AND EASTERN OHIO.               
THIS RAIN WILL NEED MONITORED OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.  THE                 
WRAP AROUND RAIN BACK IN CENTRAL OHIO WILL ALSO AFFECT THESE AREAS              
LATER THIS MORNING AND COULD STILL BE ENOUGH TO...TOGETHER WITH THE             
EARLIER RAINFALL...TRIGGER SOME WATER PROBLEMS.                                 
RIVERS HAVE BEGUN TO SHOW A RISE BUT REMAIN WELL BELOW FLOOD STAGE              
AND ARE FOLLOWING OUR FORECASTS REASONABLY CLOSELY.  ANOTHER STRONG             
RISE IS FORECAST ON THE HOCKING.  IT IS AGAIN FORECAST TO CREST                 
CLOSE TO FLOOD STAGE SUNDAY MORNING.  THIS WILL NEED CLOSELY                    
MONITORED.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
WV...WIND ADVISORY FOR WVZ005>011-013>020-024>040-046-047 FROM 7 PM             
     SATURDAY TO 4 PM SUNDAY.                                                   
  ...WINTER STORM WATCH FOR WVZ038>040-046-047 FROM 7 PM SATURDAY               
     TO NOON SUNDAY.                                                            
OH...WIND ADVISORY FOR OHZ066-067-075-076-083>087 FROM 7 PM                     
     SATURDAY TO 4 PM SUNDAY.                                                   
KY...WIND ADVISORY FOR KYZ101>103-105 FROM 7 PM SATURDAY TO 4 PM                
     SUNDAY.                                                                    
VA...WIND ADVISORY FOR VAZ003-004 FROM 7 PM SATURDAY TO 4 PM SUNDAY.            
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
AVIATION...ARJ                                                                  
</PRE></TT></td>   wv                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV                                          
1052 AM EST SAT APR 2 2005                                                      
.SHORT TERM (REST OF TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)...                                  
CURRENT RADAR DATA AND WV IMAGERY SHOWS MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROF IS             
LOCATED NEAR PERRY COUNTY OH...WITH A LARGE AREA OF RAIN/SNOW IN                
THE VICINITY OF THE TROF.  OTHER PATCHES OF RAIN WERE MOVING                    
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.                                             
RUC MODEL SEEMS TO HAVE THE BEST HANDLE ON THE LOCATION OF THE                  
TROF.  THE TROF AND THE UPPER LOW WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE REGION              
THIS AFTERNOON...WITH THE NEST CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION BEING NEAR              
THESE FEATURES.                                                                 
HAVE BUMPED TEMPERATURES FOR THIS AFTERNOON DOWN A FEW DEGREES AS               
CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION SHOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM MOVING MUCH.             
CURRENT THINKING IS TO LET THE FLOOD WATCH EXPIRE AT NOON AS THERE              
HAVE NOT REALLY BEEN ANY WATER PROBLEMS.  LATEST MODELS SUGGEST                 
THERE MAY BE A SMALL THREAT OF SOME HEAVIER RAIN AMOUNTS ACROSS OUR             
NORTHERN WEST VIRGINIA EARLY TONIGHT.  BUT THIS AREA DID NOT RECEIVE            
VERY HEAVY RAIN OVERNIGHT AND THERE WILL BE SEVERAL HOURS OF                    
RELATIVELY DRY WEATHER BEFORE THE PRECIPITATION MOVES BACK IN.  WILL            
JUST HAVE TO MONITOR THIS AREA THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS FOR                    
POSSIBLE WATER PROBLEMS.                                                        
WIND ADVISORY FOR TONIGHT STILL LOOKS TO BE ON TRACK AS THE                     
ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW DEEPENS AND MOVES SLOWLY EAST.                           
WILL NOT MAKE ANY CHANGES TO WINTER STORM WATCH AT THIS TIME.  BUT              
WILL TAKE A LOOK AT ALL OF THE MODELS AND MAKE A DECISION EARLY                 
THIS AFTERNOON ON WHETHER A WARNING IS NEEDED.                                  
&&                                                                              
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...                                                         
(ISSUED 630 AM EST SAT APR 2 2005)                                              
AVIATION (12Z TO 12Z)...                                                        
WILL FORECAST TRENDS A FEW HOURS FASTER THAN EVEN THE 06Z NAM                   
SUGGESTS.  WIND SHIFT TO SW UNDER THE DEEPENING SFC LOW                         
WAS FASTER MOVING E ACROSS WV BETWEEN 07-11Z.                                   
LULL MOVING INTO HTS-CRW-BKW REGION FOR 12-16Z..LIFTG TOWARD                    
CKB-EKN 15-18Z.  WRAP AROUND MOISTURE AND LOWERING FREEZING LEVEL               
MOVING QUICKLY INTO HTS-CRW-BKW ON S 15-21Z...THEN LIFTG N 18Z-00Z.             
WAS FASTER IN MIXING SOME FLAKES TO SURFACE.                                    
CEILINGS AND VISIBILITY IMPROVING HTS-CRW-BKW FM 06-12Z BUT                     
LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS CKB-EKN THRU 12Z SUNDAY.                                 
STRONG LOW LEVEL WIND FLOW THRU PD.                                             
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...                                                          
(ISSUED 452 AM EST SAT APR 2 2005)                                              
SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...                                            
LOW CURRENTLY OVER WEST VIRGINIA EXPECTED TO RAPIDLY INTENSIFY AS IT            
MEANDERS NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS.  EXPECTED LULL             
IN PRECIPITATION WILL OCCUR THIS MORNING BEFORE WRAPAROUND ARRIVES              
THIS AFTERNOON.  ELECTED TO KEEP FLOOD WATCH GOING.  IT MAY NEED TO             
BE EXTENDED DEPENDING ON AFTERNOON QPF...PLUS THERE MAY BE ONE OR               
TWO RIVER FLOODING ISSUES TO DEAL WITH.                                         
BRING POPS BACK TO CATEGORICAL EVERYWHERE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND               
TONIGHT WITH STRONG DEFORMATION ZONE BEHIND LOW. VERY IMPRESSIVE                
H500-H700 QVEC CONVERGENCE PROVIDING SUPPORT FOR A GREAT DEAL OF                
UVV...PARTICULARLY OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST CWA.  H850              
TEMPS INITIALLY NOT TOO IMPRESSIVE...BUT DYNAMIC COOLING WILL ALLOW             
THEM TO SLIP DOWN TO -5/-6 OVERNIGHT.  EXPECT MOST LOCATIONS TO SEE             
AT LEAST A BIT OF SNOW...BUT WARM GROUND AND BOUNDARY LAYER WILL                
KEEP ACCUMULATIONS DOWN FOR MANY.  EXCEPTION WILL BE IN THE NORTHERN            
MOUNTAIN COUNTIES...WHERE HIGHER ELEVATIONS WILL BE COLD                        
ENOUGH...PLUS HAVE THE DYNAMIC SUPPORT...TO SUPPORT HEAVY SNOW.                 
ISSUED WINTER STORM WATCH FOR THIS AREA FOR A GENERAL 4-8 INCH                  
ACCUMULATION THROUGH NOON SUNDAY.  MAY EVENTUALLY NEED A SNOW                   
ADVISORY FOR OTHER LOCATIONS SUCH AS CKB AND BKW...BUT STILL ENOUGH             
UNCERTAINTY HERE TO HOLD OFF FOR NOW.                                           
OTHER ISSUE IS WINDS...AS H850 WINDS OF 50-60 KTS WRAP IN TONIGHT               
AND CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF SUNDAY.  SEE NO REASON TO NOT ISSUE                
WIND ADVISORY FOR THE ENTIRE CWA AS WIND GUSTS OF 45-50 MPH ARE                 
LIKELY IN MANY LOCATIONS.  COMBINATION OF SNOW/WIND COULD CAUSE NEAR            
BLIZZARD CONDITIONS ABOVE 3000 FEET LATE TONIGHT/EARLY                          
SUNDAY...ALREADY MENTIONED IN WSW.                                              
PRECIP PATTERN TRANSITIONS TO MORE OF AN UPSLOPE CONFIGURATION AFTER            
00Z AS DYNAMIC SUPPORT WANES.  ALLOW POPS TO SLOWLY DECREASE                    
THEREAFTER AS MOISTURE DECREASES...FINALLY ENDING IT BY 00Z MON.                
 RAIN MIXES BACK IN SUNDAY...EVEN IN MOST OF THE WATCH AREA...THUS              
THE WATCH ENDS AT NOON.  WINDS BEGIN TO DIMINISH AS WELL SUNDAY                 
AFTERNOON WITH LOW PULLING INTO NEW YORK STATE.                                 
TEMPERATURES TRICKY TODAY WITH SW VA FIRST TO SEE THE COLDER AIR.               
MET WAS A USEFUL HOURLY T TEMPLATE.  TRIED NOT TO STRAY TOO FAR FROM            
MOS THEREAFTER.                                                                 
LONG TERM (SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)...                                      
FIGURING ON SNOW COVER IN NE COUNTIES...SO LOWERED MIN TEMP FOR                 
SUNDAY NIGHT WITH THE CLEARING.  ALSO LOWERED MAX TEMP A BIT FOR                
MONDAY IN NE WV.  WEAK WARM FRONTAL ZONE TRIES TO SET UP LATE MONDAY            
INTO TUESDAY.  GFS HAS A BIT MORE MOISTURE THAN NAM.  LEAVING DRY AT            
THIS TIME.                                                                      
TOO ACTIVE/BUSY SHORT RANGE TO REEVALUATE WED-FRI TIME FRAME.                   
HYDROLOGY...                                                                    
RAINFALL TOTALS HAVE EXCEEDED AN INCH IN PARTS OF OH AND KY WITH                
HIGHEST AMOUNTS IN THE 1.25 TO 1.5 INCH RANGE.  CALLS MADE TO                   
COUNTIES WITH THE MOST RAINFALL HAVE YIELDED NO REPORTS OF FLOODING             
PROBLEMS ALTHOUGH THERE HAS BEEN PONDING ON ROADWAYS.                           
THE HEAVIEST OF THE RAIN HAS PULLED OUT OF NORTHEASTERN KENTUCKY AND            
WAS SLOWLY PUSHING OUT OF WESTERN WEST VIRGINIA AND EASTERN OHIO.               
THIS RAIN WILL NEED MONITORED OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.  THE                 
WRAP AROUND RAIN BACK IN CENTRAL OHIO WILL ALSO AFFECT THESE AREAS              
LATER THIS MORNING AND COULD STILL BE ENOUGH TO...TOGETHER WITH THE             
EARLIER RAINFALL...TRIGGER SOME WATER PROBLEMS.                                 
RIVERS HAVE BEGUN TO SHOW A RISE BUT REMAIN WELL BELOW FLOOD STAGE              
AND ARE FOLLOWING OUR FORECASTS REASONABLY CLOSELY.  ANOTHER STRONG             
RISE IS FORECAST ON THE HOCKING.  IT IS AGAIN FORECAST TO CREST                 
CLOSE TO FLOOD STAGE SUNDAY MORNING.  THIS WILL NEED CLOSELY                    
MONITORED.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
WV...FLOOD WATCH FOR WVZ005>011-013-014-016>019-046-047 FROM 8 PM               
     FRIDAY TO NOON SATURDAY.                                                   
  ...WIND ADVISORY FOR WVZ005>011-013>020-024>040-046-047 FROM 7 PM             
     SATURDAY TO 4 PM SUNDAY.                                                   
  ...WINTER STORM WATCH FOR WVZ038>040-046-047 FROM 7 PM SATURDAY               
     TO NOON SUNDAY.                                                            
OH...FLOOD WATCH FOR OHZ066-067-075-076-083>087 FROM 8 PM FRIDAY TO             
     NOON SATURDAY.                                                             
  ...WIND ADVISORY FOR OHZ066-067-075-076-083>087 FROM 7 PM                     
     SATURDAY TO 4 PM SUNDAY.                                                   
KY...FLOOD WATCH FOR KYZ101>103-105 FROM 8 PM FRIDAY TO NOON                    
     SATURDAY.                                                                  
  ...WIND ADVISORY FOR KYZ101>103-105 FROM 7 PM SATURDAY TO 4 PM                
     SUNDAY.                                                                    
VA...WIND ADVISORY FOR VAZ003-004 FROM 7 PM SATURDAY TO 4 PM SUNDAY.            
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHORT TERM...JSH                                                                
</PRE></TT></td>   wv                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY                                             
308 AM CDT SUN APR 3 2005                                                       
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
A WARMING TREND WILL BEGIN TODAY AS A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE               
MOVES EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA. 06Z RUC ANALYSIS SHOWS FAIRLY                  
STRONG WARM ADVECTION IS ALREADY UNDERWAY AT 850 MB...WHERE THE FLOW            
IS WESTERLY ALONG THE RIDGE AXIS. STRONG SOLAR HEATING AND                      
INCREASING LOW LEVEL SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL RESULT IN A LARGE TEMP                 
RISE...ABOUT 35 DEGREES FROM THE MORNING LOW. THE ONLY CLOUDINESS TO            
CONTEND WITH WILL BE A LITTLE MID AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUDINESS                    
ASSOCIATED WITH A 500 MB SHORTWAVE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS AT 06Z.              
THE NAM/GFS TAKE THIS SHORTWAVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE LOWER OHIO                 
VALLEY AROUND 18Z. GFS/NGM MOS HIGHS ARE SIMILAR AND WILL BE                    
FOLLOWED.                                                                       
BRISK SOUTHWEST BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW TONIGHT WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES              
UP. SOME OF THE NORMALLY COOLER LOW LYING AREAS MAY DECOUPLE                    
TONIGHT...ALLOWING LOCALLY MUCH COOLER READINGS. GFS/NGM MOS LOWS               
ARE SIMILAR AND WILL BE FOLLOWED. MID AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL              
KEEP MOST CLOUDINESS AT BAY THROUGH THE NIGHT.                                  
CONTINUED STRONG WARM ADVECTION ON MONDAY WILL RESULT IN HIGHS IN               
THE 70S THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST AREA. IT WILL ALSO BE RATHER BREEZY             
IN WESTERN COUNTIES...WHICH COULD CAUSE SOME FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS.             
MANY COUNTIES IN SE MISSOURI ESCAPED SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL WITH THE              
LAST WEATHER SYSTEM...LEAVING FUEL MOISTURE ON THE LOW SIDE. SOME               
PERIODS OF MID AND HIGH CLOUDINESS MAY ACCOMPANY A WEAK 500 MB                  
SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE FLATTENING RIDGE...BUT NOT ENOUGH TO               
SIGNIFICANTLY AFFECT HIGHS.                                                     
SLOW MOISTENING OF THE COLUMN WILL OCCUR MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH                   
TUESDAY AS THE FLOW AT ALL LEVELS BECOMES MORE SOUTHERLY. GFS/NAM               
ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH EACH OTHER ON A 500 MB CLOSED LOW             
MOVING NORTHEAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS TUESDAY NIGHT AND                    
WEDNESDAY. THIS IS MUCH FURTHER NORTH THAN RUNS SHOWED 24 HOURS                 
AGO...AND IT CONFLICTS WITH 12Z ECMWF GUIDANCE. IF THIS VERIFIES AND            
THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW PASSES WELL TO OUR NORTH...THE POTENTIAL             
FOR WIDESPREAD CONVECTION WILL BE HIGHER. BOTH GFS/NAM SHOW A 50 TO             
60 KNOT 850 MB JET SHIFTING EAST ACROSS THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY              
TUESDAY NIGHT. PLENTY OF MOISTURE WILL BE AVAILABLE FOR A BAND OF               
CONVECTION ALONG THE EASTWARD MOVING OCCLUDED FRONT.                            
THE LATEST GFS MODEL STRONGLY DRIES OUT THE LOW LEVELS IN THE WAKE              
OF THE OCCLUDED FRONT ON WEDNESDAY. THIS COULD RESULT IN PERIODS OF             
SUNSHINE ON WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER...WITH VERY COLD TEMPS ALOFT                     
ASSOCIATED WITH THE 500 MB LOW...PERIODS OF SUNSHINE WOULD RESULT IN            
DIURNAL INSTABILITY SHOWERS AND STORMS.                                         
REGARDING THE TRACK OF THE 500 MB LOW AFTER WEDNESDAY...THE MODELS              
VARY WIDELY. PREFER THE GFS TRACK...WHICH TAKES IT BACK SOUTHEAST               
ACROSS THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY THURSDAY AS IT PHASES WITH THE NORTHERN            
STREAM. 12Z ECMWF SHOWS THIS PHASING THE BEST. THIS WILL KEEP SOME              
PRECIPITATION LINGERING THROUGH THURSDAY...ALONG WITH COOLER TEMPS.             
MOST OF THE MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE SHOWS 500 MB RIDGING THEN MOVING              
INTO THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...BRINGING A RETURN TO               
WARMER AND DRIER CONDITIONS.                                                    
&&                                                                              
.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
.KY...NONE                                                                      
.MO...NONE                                                                      
.IL...NONE                                                                      
.IN...NONE                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
MY                                                                              
</PRE></TT></td>   ky                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI                                     
1204 AM EST SUN APR 3 2005                                                      
.AVIATION...                                                                    
WEATHER WILL BE RATHER BENIGN THROUGH THE 24 HOUR TAF PERIOD. DRY               
AIR MASS AND SUBSIDENCE WILL PREVAIL WITH LOWEST CLOUDS EXPECTED                
AROUND 15K FEET INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS AT DTW AND DET ON BACK             
SIDE OF EASTERN SYSTEM...SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS FNT/MBS. THEN CLEAR              
SKIES SUNDAY AND SUNDAY EVENING. NO VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS OF ANY              
KIND. GUSTS WILL CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE OVERNIGHT DET/DTW...THEN FLARE             
BACK UP INTO 25 TO 30 KNOT RANGE ALL TAF SITES BY MID DAY SUNDAY AS             
DIURNAL INCREASE IN MIXING LAYER ALLOWS TAPPING THE HIGHER WINDS                
ALOFT AGAIN.                                                                    
&&                                                                              
.UPDATE...ISSUED 740 PM EST SAT                                                 
LOOKING AT RADAR TRENDS FROM DTX 88D AND CANADIAN EXETER RADAR...IT             
APPEARS UNLIKELY THAT THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD WHICH HAS RETREATED              
EAST WILL BULGE BACK WEST INTO FORECAST AREA. THUS...A DRY REST OF              
TONIGHT THROUGHOUT. HAVE TWEAKED SKY GRIDS FOR CURRENT CLEARING                 
TRENDS AND LOWERED LAND WINDS SOMEWHAT TONIGHT AS WELL...AS CLEAR               
SKIES ALREADY SEEN DECOUPLING THE FLOW AND THUS LOWERING REPORTED               
WINDS. ZONE FORECAST PACKAGE WILL BE UPDATED SHORTLY.                           
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...ISSUED 355 PM EST SAT                        
12Z RAOBS/WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOW AN UPPER LOW MOVING THROUGH THE                 
TENNESSEE/OHIO VALLEYS...WITH THE SURFACE LOW REDEVELOPING ALONG THE            
MID ATLANTIC COAST. REGIONAL RADARS SHOW PERSISTENT PRECIP BAND                 
ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN ONTARIO...STILL BRUSHING THE FAR SOUTHEAST CWA.             
VIS SATELLITE SHOWS CLEARING UPSTREAM...WITH ONLY THINNING HIGH                 
CLOUDS ACROSS THE SAGINAW VALLEY.                                               
MAIN FOCUS FOR THE FIRST 24 HOURS WILL BE WITH INITIAL PRECIP. 18Z              
RUC IS A BIT SLOWER THAN THE 12Z/15Z RUNS TAKING THE BEST MID-LEVEL             
DEFORMATION THROUGH THE CWA...AND CONSEQUENTLY HOLD ON TO LIFT                  
ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHEAST CWA FOR LONGER. REGIONAL RADARS HAVE SHOWN             
A SLIGHT REORIENTATION WITH BETTER LIFT DEVELOPING FARTHER NORTH                
ACROSS ONTARIO AS THE VORT CENTER SWINGS BACK AROUND THE CUTOFF LOW.            
WILL HOLD ON TO CATEGORICAL POPS INTO THE EARLY EVENING ACROSS THE              
VERY FAR SOUTHEAST CWA...MAINLY MACOMB/ST CLAIR BASED ON RECENT                 
RADAR TRENDS. AS FAR A PRECIP TYPE...RECENT TAMDAR SOUNDINGS                    
CONTINUE TO SHOW FREEZING LEVELS GENERALLY 1.6-18.KFT ACROSS THE                
SOUTHEAST CWA. THERE HAVE BEEN MORE SNOW REPORTS...ESPECIALLY FROM              
THE PHN/YZR AREA...CORRESPONDING WITH STRONGER RADAR RETURNS/HEAVIER            
PRECIP RATES. WILL ALLOW FOR MORE SNOW ACROSS ST CLAIR COUNTY...AND             
KEEP IT JUST A CHANCE OF SNOW MIXED IN ACROSS MACOMB.                           
1000-850MB TRAJECTORIES SUPPORT A SLOWER CLEARING TREND...AT LEAST              
ACROSS THE EASTERN CWA. WITH CLOUD SHIELD ALREADY PRETTY THIN ACROSS            
THE NORTHWEST...SHOULD SEE CLEARING PRETTY EARLY IN THE TRI CITIES.             
ACTUALLY WILL START MIDLAND/BAY AS MOSTLY CLEAR. DEEPER MOISTURE                
WILL CONTINUE TO PULL EAST AS THE SYSTEM MOVE TO EASTERN                        
PENNSYLVANIA TONIGHT AND FURTHER WRAPS UP...ALLOWING THE CLEARING               
SKIES TO WORK THROUGH THE CWA. GRADIENT STAYS PRETTY STRONG THROUGH             
SUNDAY...WITH A PRETTY WELL MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER THROUGH THE NIGHT              
LEADING TO SOME CONTINUED GUSTINESS. NOT MUCH OF A TEMPERATURE                  
GRADIENT ACROSS THE STATE WITH LITTLE THERMAL ADVECTION BEHIND THIS             
SYSTEM...BUT WILL KEEP LOWS A COUPLE DEGREES COLDER ACROSS THE                  
SAGINAW VALLEY WITH EARLIER CLEARING.                                           
THERE SHOULD BE A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE ON SUNDAY. HOWEVER...BOTH               
NAM/GFS TRY TO BRING IN THE MID-LEVEL DECK FROM MINNESOTA. UPPER                
FLOW BECOMES MORE CONFLUENT ACROSS THE STATE BETWEEN SHORTWAVE RIDGE            
OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES AND LOW OVER THE NORTHEAST. THIS                   
MID/UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE MAY HAVE A DIFFICULT TIME MAKING IT THIS               
FAR EAST...BUT THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH CLOUDS AROUND FOR MOSTLY SUNNY            
AS OPPOSED TO PLAIN SUNNY SKIES. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW US MIXING              
UP TO 850MB...WHERE TEMPERATURES HOVER FROM -2C TO 0C. WITH GOOD                
APRIL INSOLATION...THIS SHOULD HELP US CLIMB BACK INTO THE 50S.                 
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...ISSUED 355 PM EST SAT                    
INITIAL PROBLEMS IN THE LONG TERM WILL BE JUST HOW MILD TO GO WITH              
TEMPERATURES AS CURRENT SYSTEM WORKS SLOWLY OFF TO THE NORTHEAST &              
WEST/NORTHWEST FLOW SETS IN BEHIND IT. THEREAFTER...SOUTHERLY FLOW              
GRADUALLY SETS UP AS NEXT WEATHER MAKER DIGS INTO THE OHIO VALLEY               
BY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.                                                      
MODELS ALL SHOW A VERY VIGOROUS UPPER LOW DEVELOPING IN THE AREA                
BY MID/LATE WEEK...BUT DIFFER RATHER SIGNIFICANTLY WITH EACH OTHER              
AND FROM RUN TO RUN. TREND...HOWEVER...SUGGESTS THAT AN EXTENDED                
PERIOD OF RAIN IS ON TAP DURING THE EXTENDED FORECAST...OR AT THE               
VERY LEAST...A 2 OR 3 DAY PERIOD IN WHICH VARIOUS "WAVES" OF RAIN               
AND EMBEDDED THUNDER...WILL ROTATE THROUGH THE AREA.                            
IN TERMS OF TEMPERATURES...WILL MAKE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO LAKESHORE              
TEMPERATURES ON DAYS IN WHICH AN ONSHORE FLOW SEEMS MORE LIKELY.                
NAMELY ON MONDAY AS LIGHT...NORTHWEST FLOW SHOULD BE DOMINATED BY               
LAKE BREEZE BY AFTERNOON. THEN...AS AFOREMENTIONED SYSTEM WRAPS                 
UP TO OUR SOUTHWEST...OVERALL SYNOPTIC FLOW WILL TEND TO A SOLID                
SOUTHEASTERLY DIRECTION. HENCE...WARMEST IN THE WEST CENTRAL CWA                
AND COLDEST OFF LAKE ERIE/LAKE HURON.                                           
TREND WILL BE FOR MILD WEATHER INTO THE WEDNESDAY AND PERHAPS                   
THURSDAY TIMEFRAME...DEPENDING ON JUST HOW/WHERE THIS UPPER LOW                 
PRESSURE SYSTEM EVOLVES. THEREAFTER...EXPECT A COOL DOWN FOR THE                
UPCOMING WEEKEND AS CORE OF SYSTEM (AND ASSOCIATED COLDER AIR)                  
DRIFTS THROUGH OR VERY NEAR THE AREA...AND COLDER AIR EVENTUALLY                
FUNNELS INTO THE GREAT LAKES FROM CANADA IN BEHIND THE SYSTEM.                  
WITH THIS IDEA OF COOLING INTO THE WEEKEND...WILL GO OPPOSITE OF                
THE CLIMATOLOGY INDUCED RISE IN MEX GUIDANCE FROM FRIDAY INTO                   
SATURDAY. AT BEST...WILL KEEP FRIDAY/SATURDAY VERY CLOSE TO THE                 
SAME...WITH A FEW DEGREE RISE BY SUNDAY.                                        
&&                                                                              
.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
.MI...NONE.                                                                     
.LAKE HURON...                                                                  
  GALE WARNING...FOR THE SOUTH HALF...THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING.                   
  GALE WARNING...FOR THE NEARSHORE WATERS EXCLUSIVE OF INNER SAGINAW            
  BAY...OVERNIGHT.                                                              
  SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...INNER SAGINAW BAY...OVERNIGHT.                         
.LAKE ST CLAIR...GALE WARNING...THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING.                         
.MI WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...GALE WARNING...OVERNIGHT.                             
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
DWD/BRAVENDER/DEG                                                               
</PRE></TT></td>   mi                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
1047 AM EDT SUN APR 3 2005                                                      
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
THE MAIN CONCERN WITH THIS UPDATE IS THE HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THIS             
AFTERNOON.                                                                      
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC/ETA SHOWING A SPLIT FLOW ACROSS EASTERN             
CONUS. THE SOUTHERN SPLIT SWING AROUND A LOW OVER NEW YORK                      
STATE...WHERE AS THE NORTHERN SPLIT SAILS THROUGH ONTARIO. A BROAD              
RIDGE APPEARS TO OCCUPY MUCH OF NORTHERN PLAINS. A DEEP LOW IS                  
OFF THE WEST COAST. A WEAK SHORTWAVE IS ON THE WEST END OF THE U.P.             
TRYING TO MAKE UP ITS MIND WHICH SPLIT IT WILL TAKE. AN AREA OF                 
850-500MB Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE IS ACROSS CENTRAL ONTARIO AND THE                
CENTRAL PART OF THE FORECAST AREA INTO SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN PRODUCING            
A BAND OF ALTO CUMULUS AROUND 8K FEET. SURFACE ANALYSIS DEPICT A                
CLOSED LOW OVER NEW YORK STATE...AND A RIDGE RUNNING THE LENGTH OF              
THE MISSISSIPI RIVER VALLEY TO A HIGH OVER WESTERN ONTARIO. A LOW IS            
DEVELOPING OVER THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS.                                       
THE SHORTWAVE OVER THE U.P. WILL WEAKEN EVEN MORE UNDER THE REGIME              
OF THE SPLIT FLOW AS IT MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL PART OF THE FORECAST             
AREA. THE SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE TO THE ALBANY NEW YORK AREA...WHILE             
THE RIDGE RELOCATES OVER THE FORECAST AREA AND EASTERN WISCOSIN. THE            
HIGH PLAINS LOW WILL PUSH INTO SOUTHEAST MONTANA WHILE DIRECTING A              
WARM FRONT OUT A HEAD OF IT THROUGH SOUTH DAKOTA. THUS CONDITIONS               
SHOULD REMAIN FAIRLY SUNNY AND MILD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS               
AFTERNOON.  WINDS WILL BE LIGHT ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON...SO             
CONDITIONS FAVOR SOLAR HEATING.                                                 
&&                                                                              
.MQT...WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
DLG                                                                             
</PRE></TT></td>   mi                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK                                              
1058 AM CDT SUN APR 3 2005                                                      
CHALLENGING FORECAST THIS AFTERNOON WITH ANY CHANGES THAT HAVE BEEN             
CONSIDERED BASED ON THICKENING CIRRUS...WHICH IS USUALLY DIFFICULT              
TO PREDICT...AND RECENT MODEL BIASES IN 2M DEWPOINTS. SHORTWAVE                 
RIDGE NOW OVER THE REGION WITH ASSOCIATED DEFORMATION INCREASING DUE            
TO APPROACH OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE ROCKIES. COMBINED WITH               
LIFT OVER THE MOUNTAINS...CIRRUS HAS INCREASED OVER THE ENTIRE AREA.            
CIRRUS SHOULD GENERALLY INCREASE/THICKEN AS THE DAY PROGRESSES WITH             
FLUCTUATIONS EXPECTED IN ITS DEVELOPMENT. FORECAST HIGHS MAY NEED TO            
BE ADJUSTED DOWNWARD IN THE WEST...PARTICULARLY THE NORTHWEST WHERE             
CLOUDS ARE THICKEST. CIRRUS CAN BE VERY TRICKY...SO WILL NOT MAKE               
MAJOR TEMP CHANGES.                                                             
THE OTHER CONCERN IS DEWPOINTS. THE RUC CONTINUES TO DISPLAY A DRY              
BIAS...PERHAPS DUE TO INITIALIZATION OF FICTITIOUSLY DRY SOIL WHICH             
HAS PLAGUED THE MODEL FOR SOME TIME. MEANWHILE...THE ETA/GFS HAVE               
BEEN TOO MOIST. MODEL PERFORMANCE THE LAST 2 DAYS SUGGESTS A                    
COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE ETA AND RUC HAS BEEN MOST USEFUL. THUS HAVE              
USED THIS APPROACH TO LOWER DEWPOINTS FOR THIS AFTERNOON...BUT NOT              
AS MUCH AS THE RUC INDICATES. RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL BE SLIGHTLY              
LOWER MOST AREAS AS A RESULT.                                                   
JAMES                                                                           
-----------------------                                                         
416 AM CDT SUN APR 3 2005                                                       
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
MAIN CONCERNS THIS MORNING ARE FIRE WX IN SHORT TERM...AND SYSTEM               
MOVING INTO PLAINS TUE-WED.                                                     
TEMPS WILL EXCEED RED FLAG THRESHOLD TODAY IN ALL AREAS...BUT                   
WIND/RH PROGGED TO BE MARGINAL. WE THINK AT LEAST 2 OF THE 3                    
CRITERIA WILL BE MET OVER MOST OF THE FIRE WX WATCH AREA THIS                   
AFTERNOON...SO WE WILL UP TO A RED FLAG WARNING. EXPECT CIRRUS TO               
INCREASE AND GRADUALLY THICKEN DURING DAY BASED ON SATELLITE                    
TRENDS AND MODEL HIGH-LEVEL RH PROGS...BUT THICKER STUFF NOT                    
EXPECTED UNTIL AFTER MOST AREAS HAVE HAD PLENTY OF DAYTIME WARMING              
SO EXPECT MINIMAL EFFECT ON HIGH TEMPS.                                         
CONSENSUS OF THE MODELS - AT LEAST THE NCEP RUNS - IS FOR A                     
SLIGHTLY FASTER SYSTEM TRACKING A BIT FARTHER N TUE/WED. ONCE                   
AGAIN WE WILL LIKELY DEAL WITH A POTENT DYNAMIC SYSTEM THAT WILL                
HAVE WRETCHED LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE TO WORK WITH THIS FAR W...SO THE               
MAIN STORY APPEARS MORE LIKELY TO BE GRADIENT WINDS RATHER THAN                 
SEVERE STORMS. GULF HAS BEEN SCOURED AGAIN...WITH CURRENT DEWPOINTS             
ONLY IN THE 40S IN W GULF. RETURN FLOW OF MODIFIED GULF AIR WILL                
LIKELY BRING DEWPOINTS BACK INTO 50S BY TUE...BUT FASTER SYSTEM                 
MEANS DRYLINE LIKELY TO PUNCH ACROSS MOST OF AREA WELL BEFORE MAX               
HEATING OCCURS ON TUE. WE HAVE MODIFIED THE DEWPOINT GRIDS TO SLOW              
DOWN THE PROGRESSION OF DRY AIR SLIGHTLY BASED ON TYPICAL MODEL                 
TENDENCY TO PUSH THE DRYLINE E TOO QUICKLY AT TIME RANGES OF 2-3                
DAYS. THAT STILL CARRIES THE DRYLINE INTO CENTRAL OK NEAR OR                    
BEFORE 18Z TUE...AND INTO E OK OUT OF OUR CWA BY 21Z. HAVE TRENDED              
POPS DOWN ON TUE TO ACCOUNT FOR FASTER MOVEMENT...AND MAY WELL                  
NEED TO LOWER THEM MORE AS THE SYSTEM DRAWS CLOSER...ONCE IT                    
BECOMES MORE CERTAIN THAT MUCH OF THE CWA WILL BE DRY SLOTTED.                  
ENERGETIC SYSTEM WITH STRONG WIND FIELDS AND DECENT POST-DRYLINE                
MIXING INDICATE STRONG SW-W WINDS TUE... BECOMING NW TUE NIGHT AS               
SFC LOW MOVES NE. MAY BE A WIND ADVISORY SITUATION. BEST CHANCE OF              
RAIN NOW MORE LIKELY TO BE WITH WRAPAROUND RA/SHRA ACROSS MAINLY N              
OK LATE TUE INTO WED WITH S PARTS OF CWA REMAINING DRY.                         
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES BEYOND WED EXCEPT TO LOWER TEMPS THU/FRI AS              
SFC HIGH SETTLES IN BEHIND THE DEPARTING SYSTEM. ANOTHER SYSTEM IS              
PROGGED TO APPROACH FROM THE 4-CORNERS AREA LATE SAT OR SUN. BUT                
IN KEEPING WITH THE THEME SO FAR THIS SEASON... WILL NOT INTRODUCE              
ANY POPS AS GULF AGAIN WILL BE SCOURED OUT IN WAKE OF THE MID-LATE              
WEEK SYSTEM.                                                                    
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  78  53  80  59 /   0   0  10  10                              
HOBART OK         81  53  83  57 /   0   0  10  10                              
WICHITA FALLS TX  80  54  83  59 /   0   0  10  10                              
GAGE OK           82  49  86  51 /   0   0  10  20                              
PONCA CITY OK     80  56  80  62 /   0   0  10  10                              
DURANT OK         78  56  77  62 /   0   0  10  10                              
&&                                                                              
.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
OK...RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON SUNDAY TO 7 PM SUNDAY FOR OKZ004-               
     OKZ005-OKZ006-OKZ007-OKZ008-OKZ009-OKZ010-OKZ011-OKZ012-                   
     OKZ013-OKZ014-OKZ015-OKZ016-OKZ017-OKZ018-OKZ019-OKZ020-                   
     OKZ021-OKZ022-OKZ023-OKZ024-OKZ025-OKZ026-OKZ027-OKZ028-                   
     OKZ029-OKZ030-OKZ031-OKZ033-OKZ034-OKZ035-OKZ036-OKZ037-                   
     OKZ038-OKZ039-OKZ040-OKZ041-OKZ042-OKZ044-OKZ045-OKZ046-                   
     OKZ050.                                                                    
TX...RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON SUNDAY TO 7 PM SUNDAY FOR TXZ083-               
     TXZ084-TXZ085-TXZ086-TXZ087-TXZ088-TXZ089-TXZ090.                          
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
30 SHORT TERM / 24 LONG TERM                                                    
</PRE></TT></td>   ok                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO                                              
237 PM MDT SUN APR 3 2005                                                       
.SHORT TERM...                                                                  
(TONIGHT AND MONDAY)                                                            
MAIN SHORT TERM CONCERNS INCLUDE TEMPERATURES AND WINDS WITH PRECIP             
CHANCES ACROSS WESTERN PARTS OF AREA TOMORROW.                                  
CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATING               
FLAT UPPER LEVEL RIDGING ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST...AS A BROAD             
EASTERN PACIFIC UPPER TROUGH DIGS ACROSS THE PAC NW COAST WITH 90+ KT           
JET CORE ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE SYSTEM AND INTO THE NORTHERN GREAT            
BASIN ATTM. WATER VAPOR ALSO INDICATING SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE PLUME              
MOVING ACROSS THE DESERT SW THROUGH SOUTHEASTERN COLORADO AND INTO              
THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...WITH DISTINCT CLEARING BEING NOTED ACROSS             
WESTERN COLORADO ATTM. CLOUDS HAVE HAMPERED EXPECTED MIXING AND                 
HEATING ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN PLAINS...HOWEVER...WITH CLEARING SKIES           
FROM WEST TO EAST ALONG WITH A LATER SUNSET...SHOULD STILL SEE                  
TEMPERATURES INTO THE LOWER TO MID 70S LATE THIS AFTERNOON.                     
TONIGHT...SOUTHWEST FLOW INCREASES ACROSS THE REGION AS PAC NW SYSTEM           
CONTINUE TO DIG ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN...WITH H5 WINDS INCREASING TO            
BETWEEN 35-45 KTS AND H7 WINDS OF 15-25 KTS BY 12Z MON. INCREASING              
SW FLOW PUSHES LEE TROUGH ACROSS THE WESTERN KANSAS BORDER                      
OVERNIGHT...KEEPING WESTERLY FLOW AND MIN TEMPS UP ACROSS THE REGION.           
CLEARING ACROSS REGION THIS EVENING WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS INCREASING           
HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS WESTERN UTAH MOVES ACROSS THE STATE                  
OVERNIGHT.                                                                      
MONDAY...UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO MOVE ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN WITH             
TIP OF 90KT JET CORE NOSING INTO WESTERN COLORADO BY 00Z TUE. H5 AND            
H7 FLOW INCREASES TO AROUND 50 KT AND 30KTS RESPECTIVELY...WITH                 
BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.                
WITH INCREASED UVV AND PROXIMITY OF JET CORE...HAVE KEPT SCATTERED              
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSRASN ACROSS THE SW AND CENTRAL MTS MON                   
AFTERNOON WITH ISOLATED POPS SPREADING ACROSS THE HIGH MT VALLEYS               
THROUGH THE EASTERN MTS. ANY ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED TO BE ON THE                
LIGHT SIDE EVEN WITH GOOD UPPER SUPPORT AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE                   
LACKING. ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS...EXPECTING GOOD MIXING WITH                 
LAPSE RATES AROUND 8C/KM...ALLOWING FOR GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 15             
TO 30 MPH MIXING DOWN ACROSS THE AREA IN THE AFTERNOON. WITH GOOD               
DOWNSLOPE WARMING...HAVE GONE ABOVE GUIDANCE TEMPS FOR HIGHS ON                 
MONDAY. ONLY WRENCH TO CURRENT FORECAST WILL BE THE BOUTS OF HIGH               
LEVEL CLOUDS MOVING ACROSS THE REGION HAMPERING MIXING...THOUGH                 
CLOUDS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE AS DENSE AS TODAY. -MW                            
.LONG TERM...                                                                   
(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)                                                        
MAIN CONCERN CONTINUES TO FOCUS ON THE NEXT UPPER TROUGH THAT WILL              
BE THE PRIMARY WEATHER MAKER MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. NAM                
SEEMS TO BE THE ODD MODEL OUT AT THIS POINT POSSIBLY DUE TO ITS                 
INITIALIZATION AT 12Z. LOOKS LIKE IT IS TOO STRONG WITH THE UPPER               
RIDGE AND THAT IS FORCING IT TO MOVE THE LOW TOO FAR NORTH AND TOO              
FAST. GFS AND OTHERS TRENDING TOWARD A DEEPER LOW FARTHER SOUTH.                
STRONG WINDS DIVE INTO THE BACK SIDE OF THE TROF AS IT MOVES TO OUR             
EAST. THIS SETS UP A DEEP LAYER OF WINDS GREATER THAN 40 KTS. MODELS            
SHOWING 50-60 KNOTS AT 700 MB ON TUESDAY WITH LAPSE RATES SUFFICIENT            
TO MIX THAT DOWN TO THE SURFACE. GOOD COLLABORATION WITH SURROUNDING            
WFOS TO SUPPORT HIGH WIND WATCH FOR TUESDAY.  PRECIPITABLE WATER IS             
LACKING WITH THIS SYSTEM AND ALTHOUGH SIMILAR IN STRENGTH TO                    
LAST THURSDAY STORM THIS ONE IS NOT AS COLD OR AS WET. WIND                     
TRAJECTORIES SUGGEST MORE OF A NORTH TO NORTH WEST COMPONENT                    
THAT WILL LIMIT ANY TERRAIN ENHANCEMENT. RAISED POPS A TAD OVER                 
EASTERN ZONES BUT STILL KEPT THEM IN THE CHANCE CATEGORY. IF LOW                
DEEPENS FARTHER WEST WE MAY NEED TO REEVALUATE THAT ISSUE BUT THAT              
CAN WAIT UNTIL TOMORROW.                                                        
THE SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH FAIRLY FAST AND UPPER RIDGE BUILDS IN TO               
WARM US UP FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. NEXT CONCERN SHOWS UP AT            
THE END OF THE WEEK WHEN ANOTHER UPPER TROF PUSHES IN FROM THE WEST.            
GFS AND DGEX ARE FARTHER SOUTH WITH THIS SYSTEM TO BEGIN WITH SO IT             
COULD BE MORE OF A PRECIPITATION MAKER. IF WE CAN TAP INTO SOME                 
GULF MOISTURE COULD SEE A MORE CONVECTIVE DRYLINE EVENT DURING                  
PEAK HEATING ON SATURDAY.  ADDED SOME LOW POPS AND THUNDER FOR                  
SATURDAY AFTERNOON.  HELD TO CURRENT FORECAST SATURDAY NIGHT AND                
SUNDAY. -WF                                                                     
&&                                                                              
.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
HIGH WIND WATCH FROM 6 AM TUESDAY TO 6 PM TUESDAY FOR COZ084-                   
COZ085-COZ086-COZ089-COZ093-COZ094-COZ095-COZ096-COZ097-COZ098-                 
COZ099.                                                                         
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
23/21                                                                           
</PRE></TT></td>   co                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA                                          
310 PM CST SUN APR 3 2005                                                       
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
STRONG SHRT WV CURRENTLY JUST OFF OF THE CALIFORNIA COAST WL BECOME             
THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN OVER THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS AND AFFECT THE               
CENTRAL PLAINS TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. TONIGHT AND MONDAY...THE               
FOCUS WILL BE TEMPERATURES WITH DEVELOPING SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS                
IOWA DURING THE PERIOD. TEMPERATURE TODAY HAVE RISEN INTO THE LOWER             
70S ACROSS MUCH OF THE STATE. EXPECT TO ADD ANOTHER 5 DEGREES TO                
THIS ON MONDAY. A LARGE AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY EXISTS WITH THE POTENT            
SHRT WV AS IT ENTERS THE CENTRAL PLAINS AS MODEL SOLUTIONS WITH THE             
SFC LOW RANGE FROM THE NGM ACRS SE NORTH DAKOTA TO NORTHERN TEXAS ON            
THE CANADIAN. THE RUC13/NAM/GFS MORE FOCUSED OVER THE MIDWEST WITH              
THE NAM BEING THE COMPROMISE SOLUTION OF THE THREE. THE 12Z NAM                 
SOLUTION WOULD SUGGEST A SIGNIFICANT SEVERE OUTBREAK ACRS CNTRL IA              
LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON. AT THIS TIME...AM PREFERRING A FARTHER SOUTH            
SOLUTION AND THEREFORE WILL NOT INCREASE SEVERE MENTION IN THE HWO.             
ALSO DUE TO UNCERTAINTIES...HAVE REMAINED CONSISTENT WITH INHERITED             
FORECAST FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.                                             
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY-SUNDAY)                                                  
LATEST TRENDS ARE FOR THE SYSTEM TO BECOME STACKED OVER THE REGION              
AND WILL SLOW THE EASTWARD PROGRESSION. HAVE ADDED PRECIPITATION                
MENTION FOR THURSDAY WITH LINGERING WRAP AROUND ACTIVITY. HAVE ALSO             
KEPT PRECIPITATION AS LIQUID WILL LITTLE TRUE COLD AIR BEING WRAPPED            
INTO THE SYSTEM. HAVE UNDERCUT GUIDANCE BY 5 DEGREES ON THURSDAY DUE            
TO CLOUD COVER AND EXPECTED LIMITED RECOVERY. A RIDGE OF HIGH                   
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH MODERATING             
TEMPERATURES. ANOTHER LONG WAVE TROUGH MOVES INTO THE WESTERN PLAINS            
ON SUNDAY AND WILL BRING THE NEXT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION.                      
&&                                                                              
.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                        
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
DONAVON                                                                         
</PRE></TT></td>   ia                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS                                            
245 PM MDT SUN APR 3 2005                                                       
.SHORT TERM... (TONIGHT-WED)                                                    
FORECAST PROBLEMS WILL BE TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY...THEN CHANCE OF               
PRECIPITATION AND WIND MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY.                          
TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY WILL ONCE AGAIN DEPEND ON EXTENT OF CLOUD                
COVER. MODELS SHOWING SCATTERED-BROKEN DECK AT 10KFT SPREADING WEST             
TO EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.  SURFACE WINDS LOOK BETTER                    
COMPARED TO TODAY...WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS DEVELOPING IN ALL BUT THE              
NEBRASKA COUNTIES...BUT STILL WITH WIND SPEEDS OFF THE RUC STAYING              
IN THE 10-15KT RANGE CLOUD COVER WILL BE THE DETERMINING FACTOR.                
CONSEQUENTLY WILL LOWER MAXES ABOUT A CATEGORY IN THE WEST.                     
COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH YUMA COUNTY AROUND 06Z MONDAY NIGHT AND                
EXPECTED TO BE ALONG A MCCOOK TO TRIBUNE LINE AROUND 12Z TUESDAY                
MORNING. DEEPEST MOISTURE WILL NOT ARRIVE UNTIL WELL AFTER FRONTAL              
PASSAGE AND WILL CUT POPS BACK ANOTHER 10 PERCENT FOR MONDAY NIGHT              
LEAVING ONLY AREAS WEST OF FRONTAL POSITION WITH ANY MENTION AT ALL.            
TUESDAY WILL BE AN ACTIVE WEATHER DAY. UKMET THE FAVORED SOLUTION               
FOR TRACK OF UPPER LOW...ALONG OR JUST NORTH OF THE OKLAHOMA/KANSAS             
BORDER. CYCLOGENESIS EXPECTED TO OCCUR NEAR HILL CITY BEFORE SYSTEM             
BECOMES VERTICALLY STACKED NEAR DODGE CITY. WIDESPREAD RAIN WILL                
DEVELOP ACROSS THE CWA AS DEFORMATION ZONE MOVES WEST TO EAST.                  
SLOWER UKMET SOLUTION FAVORS EXTENDING CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS INTO               
TUESDAY NIGHT ACROSS ALL BUT THE FAR WESTERN ZONES...AND THEN LOW               
CHANCES EARLY WEDNESDAY IN THE FAR EASTERN ZONES.                               
BIGGER STORY WILL BE THE WIND. PRESSURE RISES WILL BE SHARP BEHIND              
THE FRONT TUESDAY MORNING. 0-1KM WINDS INCREASE TO 40-50KTS FROM                
WEST TO EAST DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY AND DO NOT FALL BELOW THAT               
VALUE UNTIL WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS PRESSURE GRADIENT GRADUALLY                  
RELAXES. WILL ISSUE A RATHER LONG HIGH WIND WATCH IN COORDINATION               
WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES TO COVER ALL THE POSSIBILITIES...12Z                   
TUESDAY TO 00Z THURSDAY.                                                        
.LONG TERM... (THU-SUN)                                                         
FORECAST PROBLEMS WILL BE TEMPERATURES EARLY IN THE PERIOD THEN                 
CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION LATE IN THE PERIOD.                                    
ON THURSDAY THE HIGH PLAINS WILL BE UNDER AMPLIFIED RIDGE AXIS WITH             
DEEP TROUGHS ON BOTH COASTS OF THE CONUS. LOW LEVEL THERMAL RIDGE               
AXIS WILL BE CLOSE TO THE FRONT RANGE OF COLORADO. PROBLEM FOR A                
DRAMATIC WARM UP STILL APPEARS TO BE EASTERLY COMPONENT TO SURFACE              
WINDS RESULTING FROM SURFACE RIDGE NOSING INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS.              
THEN ON FRIDAY HEIGHT FALLS OVER THE ROCKIES AHEAD OF NEXT SYSTEM               
WILL INDUCE LEE TROUGH OVER EASTERN COLORADO...FURTHER REINFORCING              
SOUTHEASTERLY SURFACE WIND FIELD. WILL GO CONSERVATIVE WITH                     
TEMPERATURES BOTH THESE DAYS.                                                   
UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL BE APPROACHING THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES NEXT                
WEEKEND. CANADIAN GLOBAL SIGNIFICANTLY SLOWER AT 00Z/09 AND ECMWF               
SLIGHTLY SLOWER AT 00Z/10. GFS TENDS TO BE BIASED TOWARDS DEEP AND              
FAST SOLUTIONS IN THE LONGER RANGES. MOISTURE INFLUX LOOKS TO BE                
GOOD WITH GULF OF MEXICO OPEN...HOWEVER ANY LEAD SHORTWAVES MAY                 
TRIGGER CONVECTION TO THE SOUTH AND ROB THAT MOISTURE SOURCE.                   
NONETHELESS...SYSTEM APPEARS VIGOROUS AND EJECTS WITH A SLIGHT                  
NEGATIVE TILT. WILL KEEP SATURDAY DRY AND WARM BUT INTRODUCE SLIGHT             
CHANCE FOR -TRW ON SUNDAY.                                                      
&&                                                                              
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
.KS...HIGH WIND WATCH 12Z TUESDAY TIL 00Z THURSDAY.                             
.NE...HIGH WIND WATCH 12Z TUESDAY TIL 00Z THURSDAY.                             
.CO...HIGH WIND WATCH 12Z TUESDAY TIL 00Z THURSDAY.                             
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
JDK                                                                             
</PRE></TT></td>   ks                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE                                               
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS                                            
1255 PM MDT SUN APR 3 2005                                                      
.DISCUSSION...TEMPERATURES NOT WARMING UP IN THE WEST AND STILL A               
LONG WAY FROM FORECAST MAXES. WILL TWEEKING MAXES DOWN ONE MORE TIME            
IN THIS AREA. WIND FIELD ALL OVER THE PLACE WITH SURFACE LOW NEAR               
HILL CITY AND DEVELOPING TROUGH TO THE WEST. UPDATED WITH REALITY               
AND RUC.                                                                        
&&                                                                              
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
.KS...NONE.                                                                     
.NE...NONE.                                                                     
.CO...NONE.                                                                     
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
BULLER                                                                          
</PRE></TT></td>   ks                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY                                          
225 AM EST SUN APR 3 2005                                                       
.SHORT TERM:(TONIGHT THROUGH WED AFTN)                                          
MAJOR TECHNICAL PROBS OF NOTE:                                                  
WE ARE HAVING MAJOR PROBLEMS AT LMK GETTING GFS...LAPS...RUC DATA               
OVR WEEKEND...A DIFFICULT PROBLEM FOR NCF TO SOLVE...SOME TYPE OF HW            
AND/OR SW PROBLEMS INVOLVED. WE HOPE TO HAVE THIS FIXED ON MONDAY.              
BUT...SOME OF THE MISSING DATA AVAILABLE OVER THE INTERNET WITH OUR             
OFFICE PC'S.                                                                    
500 MB RDG WILL SHIFT EWRD ACRS FA DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS            
ANOTHER MAJOR TROF DROPS E OF THE CENTRAL ROCKIES DURING MON NIGHT AND          
THEN EASTWARD INTO THE CENTRL U.S. ON TUESDAY NIGHT AND WED.                    
DRY AND MILDER WEATHER TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY...WI TEMP AND DEWPOINT TRENDS       
THE ONLY MAJOR PROBLEM TO DEAL WITH. PREV FCSTS TRENDS MORE OR LESS IN          
LINE WI EXPECTED SCENARIO AND AVAILABLE MODEL DATA...SO ONLY MINOR              
TWEAKS NEEDED.                                                                  
GFS SERIES AS WELL AS OUR SURROUNDING OFFICES INTOD A  CHC OF PCPN              
DURING TUE NIGHT...THIS IS IN LINE WITH THE PATTERN CHANGES MENTIONED'          
ABOVE...SO WE WILL INTRO CHC OF TRW- WRN THIRD OF FA DURING TUE                 
NIGHT AND CONT ACROSS FA IN LIKELY CATEGORY DURING THE DAY ON WED.              
IN THE EXTENDED...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)...                         
DECENT MODEL CONTINUITY FROM THIS MORNING AND YSTDYS RUNS FOR THE               
EXTENDED PERIOD...HAVE USED A BLEND OF THE ENSEMBLE SOLUTIONS OF THE            
GFS AND ECMWF. THEREFORE LITTLE WAS CHANGED FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST              
PACKAGE...BUT JUST SOME MINOR TWEAKS TO TEMPS AND POPS. AN AREA OF              
LOW PRESSURE WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE MS VALLEY INTO THE OH VALLEY             
WEDNESDAY NITE INTO THURSDAY MORN...WITH A CUT OFF UPPER LEVEL LOW              
SLOWLY SLIDING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THRU EARLY MORNING FRIDAY.              
CHANCES FOR PRECIP WILL BE GREATEST WED NITE THRU THURSDAY MORN...A             
FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY NITE AS THE FRONT                  
PUSHES THRU THE OH VALLEY...WITH SHOWERS FROM THE WRAP AROUND                   
MOISTURE BEHIND THE SYSTEM. TEMPS WILL BE BELOW NORMAL FOR THURSDAY             
AND JUST BELOW NORMAL FOR FRIDAY. EVERYONE SHOULD DRY OUT BY FRIDAY             
MORN AS RIDGING STARTS TO WORK ITS WAY INTO THE OH VALLEY BY LATE               
FRIDAY OR EARLY SATURDAY...WITH WARMING FOR THE WEEKEND AND ABV                 
NORMAL TEMPS FOR SUNDAY AS THE RIDGE STAYS ACROSS THE REGION FOR THE            
ENTIRE WEEKEND.                                                                 
.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
.IN...NONE.                                                                     
.KY...NONE.                                                                     
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
DK                                                                              
</PRE></TT></td>   ky                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI                                     
330 PM EDT SUN APR 3 2005                                                       
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND MONDAY                                                
12Z RAOBS/WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOW UPPER LOW OVER NEW YORK...WITH                  
SHORTWAVE RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. SURFACE                  
ANALYSIS SHOWS LOW NEAR EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO AND RIDGE UPSTREAM                 
ACROSS WISCONSIN...WITH A STRONG GRADIENT REMAINING ACROSS SOUTHEAST            
MICHIGAN AND THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. VIS SATELLITE/METARS SHOW THE             
MID/HIGH CLOUDS THAT HAD WRAPPED BACK ACROSS THE EASTERN CWA HAVE               
DIMINISHED...LEAVING SUNNY SKIES ACROSS MUCH OF THE STATE.                      
WITH NO ECHOES ON DTX RADAR...VWP IS CLEAR OF RETURNS. HOWEVER                  
RECENT TAMDAR SOUNDINGS SHOW WINDS IN THE MIXED LAYER HAVE                      
DIMINISHED OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS...BUT ARE STILL RUNNING 35KTS                
/+60KT JET WELL ABOVE THE INVERSION STILL OVER THE REGION/. WINDS               
ARE STILL QUITE GUSTY...AND SHOULD REMAIN SO THROUGH SUNSET...BEFORE            
STABILIZING BOUNDARY LAYER AND WEAKENING GRADIENT BOTH WORK TO                  
LIGHTEN THE WINDS. HAD ALREADY SLOWED THE DECREASE IN WINDS WITH THE            
EARLIER UPDATE /ESPECIALLY MARINE AREAS/ AND WILL DO SO AGAIN. WITH             
THIS IN MIND...NOT SURE HOW GOOD OUR CHANCES ARE TO DECOUPLE EVEN               
UNDER CLEAR SKIES AND DRY AIRMASS...AS WINDS MAY STAY UP ENOUGH TO              
KEEP US BETTER MIXED OVERNIGHT.                                                 
SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS LOWER MICHIGAN ON MONDAY...KEEPING WINDS            
DOWN DURING THE DAY AS WELL. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW SOME WARM                  
ADVECTION PICKING UP ALOFT DURING THE DAY. THE GENERALLY WARMER                 
AIRMASS SHOULD TRANSLATE TO TEMPS A FEW DEGREES HIGHER THAN TODAY               
/NEAR 60 ESPECIALLY SOUTH/...ALTHOUGH WE WILL NOT MIX AS DEEP WITH A            
STRONGER INVERSION. CROSS SECTIONS BEGIN TO SHOW AN INCREASE IN                 
MID/UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE DURING THE AFTERNOON...AS CIRRUS FROM THE              
PLAINS WORKS IN ACROSS THE REGION. HOWEVER THE COLUMN REMAINS RATHER            
DRY...AND SUNNY/MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES STILL LOOK GOOD.                             
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY.                                       
A MORE SPRING-LIKE PATTERN TO HOLD THROUGH THE EXTENDED FORECAST.               
THIS BASICALLY FOR THE FIRST TIME THIS SEASON. WILL STILL HAVE TO               
DEAL WITH STORM SYSTEM THAT DEVELOPS OVER THE OHIO/TENNESSEE VALLEY             
REGIONS AND GRADUALLY JUMPS OVER TO THE EAST COAST MID/LATE WEEK.               
PRECIPITATION FROM THIS SYSTEM WILL BE ALL RAIN...WITH STILL A HINT             
AT A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. THIS HINT...HOWEVER...IS ALL THERE IS WITH              
BASICALLY JUST A RUMBLE OF THUNDER POSSIBLE NOW AND AGAIN WITH THE              
AREA OF RAIN. WILL DELAY RAIN CHANCES A BIT MORE (STARTING ON WED               
EVENING) AS MODELS HAVE TRENDED SLOWER. ON THE OTHER END...SHOWER               
CHANCES STILL APPEAR GOOD INTO THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH DRY WEATHER ON             
FRIDAY. THIS IS A CLOSE CALL...BUT WILL KEEP THE PREVIOUS FORECAST              
INTACT. WILL KEEP DRY FORECAST THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AS NEXT             
TROUGH IS SLOW TO MOVE EAST TOWARD THE AREA IN A MORE BLOCKED PATTERN           
WILL NOT CHANGE MUCH IN THE WAY OF TEMPERATURES...WITH 60S PREVALENT            
INTO TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY...COOLING TO 50S THURSDAY INTO THE WEEKEND W/            
A REBOUND BACK INTO THE 60S BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD AS MID            
WEEK STORM CENTERS OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST...AND AN UPPER RIDGE               
TRANSLATES JUST FAR ENOUGH EAST TO BRING A MODERATING TREND.                    
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...ISSUED AT 130 PM EST.                                               
VFR CIG/VIS THIS TAF PERIOD. WINDS CONTINUE TO BE STRONG AND                    
GUSTY...WITH TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BEHIND A PRETTY DEEP LOW MOVING            
ACROSS NEW YORK STATE. 12Z RUC/NAM CONTINUE TO SHOW DECENT WINDS                
PERSISTING ACROSS SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. TAMDAR              
SOUNDINGS VICINITY OF DTW INDICATE MIXING UP TO 2-3KFT AGL...TAPPING            
INTO 35-40KTS OF THE 50-55KT LOW-LEVEL JET. GRADIENT WILL CONTINUE              
TO DIMINISH THROUGH THE DAY...ALREADY SEEN IN SOMEWHAT LIGHTER WINDS            
ACROSS THE SAGINAW VALLEY. WILL DROP WIND SPEEDS AND GUSTINESS AT               
TAF SITES THROUGH THE EVENING...ESPECIALLY OVERNIGHT AS WE LOSE THE             
DIURNAL MIXING. WIND SHEAR SHOULD NOT BE AN ISSUE TONIGHT AS THE                
LOW-LEVEL JET PULLS EAST AS WE START TO STABILIZE NEAR THE SURFACE.             
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE STATE ON MONDAY...ALLOWING WIND                 
SPEEDS TO DROP EVEN FURTHER.                                                    
&&                                                                              
.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
.MI...NONE.                                                                     
.LAKE HURON...                                                                  
    GALE WARNING...SOUTH HALF...THIS EVENING.                                   
    SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...SAGINAW BAY...EARLY THIS EVENING.                    
.LAKE ST CLAIR...GALE WARNING...THIS EVENING.                                   
.MI WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...THIS EVENING.                  
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
BRAVENDER/DEG                                                                   
</PRE></TT></td>   mi                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
324 PM EDT SUN APR 3 2005                                                       
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS ARE TEMPERATURES AND THE MID-WEEK SYSTEM.                
CURRENT WEATHER...18Z WATER VAPOR LOOP AND RUC 500MB HEIGHT ANALYSIS            
SHOWED AN UPPER LOW SITUATED OVER NEW YORK STATE...RIDGING ACROSS               
THE PLAINS AND A TROUGH COMING ONSHORE ALONG THE WEST COAST. A                  
STRONG SHRTWV EVIDENT LOCATED AT THE BASE OF THE TROUGH IS PROGGED              
TO BE THE SHRTWV THAT IS THE BIG WEATHER MAKER FOR MID-WEEK. STREAKS            
OF UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE ON WATER VAPOR CAN BE SEEN MOVING FROM THE              
PACIFIC AHEAD OF THE TROUGH INTO THE PLAINS...WHICH SHOWS UP AS                 
CIRRUS ON VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SURFACE OBS. WEST/SW FLOW               
ALOFT DOWNSLOPING INTO THE PLAINS HAS RESULTED IN LEE TROUGHINESS               
ALONG THE ROCKIES...WITH SURFACE LOWS EVIDENT NEAR DENVER AND                   
BILLINGS. WARM FRONTS EXTEND EAST FROM EACH LOW...WITH THE DENVER               
ONE ALONG I-70 AND THE OTHER TOWARDS ABERDEEN. WITH UPPER MICHIGAN              
ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS...HIGH PRESSURE                  
COVERS THE AREA. LIGHT WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE HIGH COMBINED WITH             
STRONG SURFACE HEATING IN THE INTERIOR (WHERE TEMPERATURES ARE                  
CURRENTLY IN THE 50S TO NEAR 60) HAS RESULTED IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF             
LAKE BREEZES. 850MB TEMPS ON THE 12Z RAOBS WERE AROUND 1C OVER UPPER            
MICHIGAN...WHICH MIXING OUT PRODUCES THOSE READINGS IN THE INTERIOR.            
12Z INL SOUNDING WAS ALSO QUITE DRY...WITH DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS OF              
20 TO 30C FROM 650MB TO 850MB.                                                  
TONIGHT...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS IS PROGGED TO MOVE EAST TO THE                 
DULUTH AREA BY 12Z...KEEPING UPPER MICHIGAN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF              
HIGH PRESSURE. OTHER THAN SOME HIGH CLOUDS ENTERING THE U.P. LATE AS            
THE RIDGE AXIS NEARS...THE ENTIRE NIGHT SHOULD BE CLEAR. THE DRY AIR            
MASS (P.W. ON THE 12Z INL SOUNDING WAS 0.22 INCHES) COMBINED WITH               
THE CLEAR SKIES SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO EASILY FALL TO THE DEWPOINTS.             
FOLLOWED THE COOLER MAV GUIDANCE. MEANWHILE BACK TOWARDS THE                    
WEST...THE SURFACE LOW OVER BILLINGS ENDS UP TURNING INTO THE                   
DOMINANT LOW...MOVING OUT TO NW SOUTH DAKOTA AT 12Z MON.                        
MONDAY...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE PACIFIC MOVES INTO THE                     
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST...RESULTING MORE PRESSURE FALLS OVER THE WESTERN             
HIGH PLAINS. THIS ALLOWS THE SURFACE LOW TO DEEPEN TO 993MB WITH A              
SLIGHT SOUTHWARD MOVEMENT TOWARDS RAPID CITY BY 00Z. CLOSER TO                  
HOME...THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS MOVES INTO WESTERN UPPER                      
MICHIGAN...WHICH CAUSES THE SURFACE HIGH TO MOVE A LITTLE EASTWARD.             
WINDS WILL BE PICKING UP IN THE WESTERN U.P. OUT OF THE                         
SE...PREVENTING LAKE BREEZES THERE. LAKE BREEZES WILL BE MORE COMMON            
ACROSS THE REST OF UPPER MICHIGAN THOUGH DUE TO LIGHTER WINDS. A                
TIGHT GRADIENT IN 850MB TEMPS IS PROGGED TO BE PRESENT AT 15Z (5C IN            
THE WEST COMPARED TO 0C IN THE EAST)...AND WITH THE LAKE BREEZES...A            
WIDE RANGE OF HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD EXIST. HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE               
INCREASING TOO THROUGH THE DAY...BUT THE COVERAGE REALLY DOES NOT               
INCREASE UNTIL LATE...SO THEY SHOULD NOT REDUCE MIXING THAT MUCH.               
WENT WITH HIGHS FROM 65 IN IWD (AIDED BY DOWNSLOPING) TO 53 IN ERY              
AND IN THE UPPER 40S FOR P59 AND ISQ.                                           
MONDAY NIGHT...DISCREPANCIES EXIST ON HOW FAR SOUTH THE SHRTWV AT               
THE BASE OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES IN THE FOUR CORNERS REGION.            
THE GFS/NAM ARE NEARLY IDENTICAL HAVING THE SHRTWV MOVING INTO THE              
OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE AT 12Z TUE WITH THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW MOVING            
SOUTH INTO NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS. THE CANADIAN/UKMET/ECMWF ARE                   
FARTHER SOUTH IN EASTERN NEW MEXICO NEAR I-40. PER PMDHMD...AND THE             
TREND FOR THIS SYSTEM TO BE FARTHER SOUTH...WILL FOLLOW THE                     
CANADIAN/UKMET/ECMWF. IN EITHER EVENT...THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS              
WILL BE OVER UPPER MICHIGAN WITH BREEZY SOUTHEASTERLIES THROUGH THE             
NIGHT. THE ONLY CLOUD COVER LOOKS TO BE SOME HIGH CLOUDS SPREADING              
OVER TOP OF THE RIDGE. SO IT SHOULD BE A PARTLY CLOUDY NIGHT. WITH              
TEMPS ALREADY WARM AT THE START IN THE WEST AND DOWNSLOPING                     
CONTINUING THROUGH THE NIGHT...DO NOT THINK TEMPS WILL FALL MUCH                
THERE. MET GUIDANCE FOR IWD IS 44...BUT WILL GO ABOVE THIS AS                   
SIGNALS POINT TO EVEN A WARMER NIGHT. THE REST OF THE U.P. WILL SEE             
LOWS IN THE 30S...COLDEST EAST WHERE WINDS MAY HAVE A CHANCE TO                 
DECOUPLE EARLY.                                                                 
TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...CONTINUING TO FOLLOW THE                            
CANADIAN/UKMET/ECMWF ON WHERE THE SHRTWV/ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW                 
TRACKS. DURING THE DAY TUESDAY...UPPER RIDGING BEGINS BUILDING AGAIN            
OVER THE WEST...CAUSING THE SHRTWV OVER THE OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE TO               
CLOSE OFF INTO AN UPPER LOW IN WESTERN OKLAHOMA. WITH THE STRONG                
RIDGE ALREADY OUT AHEAD OF IT...THE UPPER LOW WILL MOVE SLOWLY                  
EAST...REACHING OKLAHOMA CITY AT 12Z WED AND FORT SMITH ARKANSAS AT             
00Z THU. THE SURFACE LOW IS ALSO PROGGED TO TAKE A SIMILAR TRACK.               
THEREFORE LATE ON THE DAY ON TUESDAY...A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE IS                
EXPECTED TO OCCUR...THEN PROGRESS SOUTHWARD TOWARDS MILWAUKEE BY                
WEDNESDAY EVENING. DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH MOISTURE IS ADVECTED INTO              
THE AREA ON TUESDAY...THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME SURFACE BASED            
THUNDERSTORMS. WILL NEED TO WATCH THIS CLOSELY SINCE UPPER MICHIGAN             
WILL BE ON THE NOSE OF A THETA-E RIDGE AND TEMPERATURES SHOULD                  
EASILY POP INTO THE MID 60S ALONG THE WISCONSIN BORDER (SINCE 850MB             
TEMPS ARE PROGGED AROUND 8C). SOME LINGERING STRATIFORM RAIN WILL               
HOLD BACK INTO UPPER MICHIGAN ON WEDNESDAY... AND WITH NE                       
WINDS...MUCH COOLER CONDITIONS ARE IN STORE COMPARED TO TUESDAY.                
EXTENDED (THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...THE BIG QUESTION FOR THE END OF            
THE WEEK/WEEKEND WILL BE THE PROGRESS OF THE UPPER LOW. PREFER THE              
SLOWER IDEAS OF THE 00Z ECMWF/UKMET (WHICH THE 06Z GFS HAS BEEN                 
TRENDING TOWARDS) BECAUSE OF THE SYSTEM IN THE SOUTHERN STREAM AND              
SINCE IT IS RUNNING INTO RIDGING OVER THE SOUTHEAST U.S.. AT 12Z                
THU...THE UPPER LOW IS PROGGED TO BE OVER WESTERN TENNESSEE AND THEN            
BY 12Z SAT OVER EASTERN VIRGINIA. WHAT THIS MEANS FOR UPPER MICHIGAN            
IS SOME LINGERING RAINFALL EARLY ON THU WITH THE BEST CHANCES IN THE            
SOUTHERN U.P....CLOSER TO THE UPPER LOW. THU ALSO LOOKS TO BE COOL              
WITH NE FLOW BETWEEN THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW AND HIGH PRESSURE               
BUILDING SOUTH FROM ONTARIO. THIS HIGH WILL HELP TO DRY THINGS OUT              
FOR FRIDAY...BUT CONDITIONS APPEAR TO REMAIN COOL ALONG LAKE                    
SUPERIOR WITH NE WINDS. INTERIOR SECTIONS SHOULD BE WARMER WITH                 
850MB TEMPS PROGGED BETWEEN 1 AND 3C. THE 00Z ECMWF AND 06Z GFS RUNS            
KEEP THE HIGH SITUATED OVER UPPER MICHIGAN THROUGH SUNDAY AS UPPER              
LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS AHEAD OF A TROUGH DEVELOPING OVER THE                      
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. SO THE WEEKEND SHOULD BE WARM AS 850MB TEMPS                
RISE TO 4 TO 6C ON SATURDAY AND 6 TO 8C ON SUNDAY. AT THE  MOMENT I             
AM DISCOUNTING THE 00Z UKMET IDEA OF PHASING BETWEEN THE UPPER LOW              
AND A NORTHERN STREAM SHRTWV FRIDAY NIGHT...RESULTING IN A SOMEWHAT             
DEEP TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN PART OF THE COUNTRY. THE UKMET HAS BEEN            
TRENDING AWAY FROM THIS...ESPECIALLY THE 03/12Z RUN AND DOES NOT                
HAVE SUPPORT FROM ANY OF THE 00Z GFS ENSEMBLES...PLUS WITH THE                  
SLOWER IDEA OF THE SOUTHERN STREAM UPPER LOW...THINK IT WILL MISS               
PHASING WITH NORTHERN STREAM SHRTWVS.                                           
&&                                                                              
.MQT...WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
AJ                                                                              
</PRE></TT></td>   mi                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI                                     
130 PM EDT SUN APR 3 2005                                                       
.AVIATION...                                                                    
VFR CIG/VIS THIS TAF PERIOD. WINDS CONTINUE TO BE STRONG AND                    
GUSTY...WITH TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BEHIND A PRETTY DEEP LOW MOVING            
ACROSS NEW YORK STATE. 12Z RUC/NAM CONTINUE TO SHOW DECENT WINDS                
PERSISTING ACROSS SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. TAMDAR              
SOUNDINGS VICINITY OF DTW INDICATE MIXING UP TO 2-3KFT AGL...TAPPING            
INTO 35-40KTS OF THE 50-55KT LOW-LEVEL JET. GRADIENT WILL CONTINUE              
TO DIMINISH THROUGH THE DAY...ALREADY SEEN IN SOMEWHAT LIGHTER WINDS            
ACROSS THE SAGINAW VALLEY. WILL DROP WIND SPEEDS AND GUSTINESS AT               
TAF SITES THROUGH THE EVENING...ESPECIALLY OVERNIGHT AS WE LOSE THE             
DIURNAL MIXING. WIND SHEAR SHOULD NOT BE AN ISSUE TONIGHT AS THE                
LOW-LEVEL JET PULLS EAST AS WE START TO STABILIZE NEAR THE SURFACE.             
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE STATE ON MONDAY...ALLOWING WIND                 
SPEEDS TO DROP EVEN FURTHER.                                                    
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM...TODAY AND TONIGHT...ISSUED AT 400 AM                              
RESIDUAL AC HANGING ON ACROSS THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE CWA...BUT              
IR LOOP SHOWING SOME THINNING LAST COUPLE OF HOURS...SO LOOKS LIKE A            
MOSTLY SUNNY MORNING ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA. ANOTHER BAND OF AC                  
WORKING INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES...BUT ANTICIPATE SOME EROSION              
OF THIS BAND AS WELL AS CONFLUENT UPPER FLOW STRENGTHENS OVER THE               
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES TODAY. SECONDARY UPPER WAVE WORKING INTO WESTERN            
ILLINOIS WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO DIVE SOUTHWEST OF THE CWA AND TAKING             
THE ASSOCIATED MID LEVEL CLOUD DECK WITH IT.                                    
UPPER LOW ALONG THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC SEABOARD WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT              
NORTHEAST TODAY...RESULTING IN INCREASING CONFLUENT UPPER FLOW OVER             
THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES JUST EAST OF BUILDING UPPER RIDGE AXIS.                 
SURFACE LOW OVER EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA SHOULD ALSO BEGIN TO FILL THIS            
AFTERNOON AS JET COUPLING WEAKENS...WHICH WILL RELAX SURFACE                    
GRADIENT OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. SO WILL TERMINATE GALE                   
WARNING AROUND NOON FOR LAKE HURON AND LAKE ST CLAIR...BUT WILL HAVE            
TO CONTINUE WITH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THE NEAR SHORE WATERS                 
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.                                                          
MAY SEE A LITTLE AC THIS AFTERNOON AS WEAK VORTICITY AXIS SLIDES                
DOWN BACK SIDE OF UPPER RIDGE...HOWEVER MODELS HAVE BALLOONED 700 MB            
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE AND WITH INCREASING CONFLUENT             
UPPER FLOW OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES ANTICIPATE JUST A BRIEF                 
PERIOD OF SCATTERED AC FROM AROUND 20-03Z.                                      
MODELS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES IN THE                 
SHORT TERM...HOWEVER THE GFS HAS A BETTER HANDLE ON 850 MB TEMPS                
OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES...SO WILL LEAN TOWARD SLIGHTLY COOLER              
MAV TEMPS FOR THIS AFTERNOON. IN ADDITION DEEP MIXED LAYER AND                  
STRONG NORTH WINDS WILL ALSO KEEP TEMPS DOWN A LITTLE.                          
RIDGE AXIS TO BUILD IN OVERNIGHT...AND LOW RH AIR MASS IN PLACE...SO            
RADIATIONAL COOLING POTENTIAL WILL BE GOOD...WILL TRIM LOWS BACK A              
DEGREE OR TWO.                                                                  
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...ISSUED AT 400 AM                         
PRETTY MINOR ISSUES FOR MOST OF THE LONG TERM FORECAST... ESPECIALLY            
FOR MONDAY... TUESDAY TIME FRAME. MODELS GENERALLY SHOWING GOOD                 
CONTINUITY ON RETREATING SYSTEM TO THE EAST AND DEVELOPING SYSTEM               
TO THE WEST. NAM IS NOW MUCH STRONGER THAN PREVIOUS RUNS ON                     
DEVELOPING LOW OVER KANSAS BY 60 HOURS. GFS IS A LITTLE BROADER WITH            
THE CIRCULATION AND TENDS TO CLEAR THE RIDGE OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES             
PROBABLY A LITTLE FAST GIVEN THE RAPID CLOSING OF THE UPPER LOW AND             
OVERALL AMPLIFICATION OF THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN.  PREFER THE NAM IN            
THIS REGARD... KEEPING CLOUDS AND RETURN FLOW MORE AT BAY INTO MID              
WEEK.                                                                           
FOR WEDNESDAY EXPECTING THE UPPER LOW TO AT LEAST MIGRATE TO THE MID            
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BRINGING WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER TO THE REGION AND            
SOME ORGANIZED PRECIPITATION.  WILL KEEP CHANCE OF THUNDER GOING FOR            
THE MOST OF THE CWA... WITH THE EXCEPTION OF CENTRAL AND NORTHERN               
LAKE HURON. HAVE RAISED POPS IN THAT TIME FRAME IN ALL AREAS. AS PER            
HPC MODEL DISCUSSION... FEEL GFS IS A LITTLE TOO FAR NORTH ON THE               
LOW POSITION ON WEDNESDAY (EASTERN IOWA) BEFORE IT DIVES BACK TOWARD            
THE SOUTHEAST. CONFIDENCE IN THE GFS AFTER 90 HRS IS A LITTLE SHAKY             
RIGHT NOW BASED ON WIDELY VARIANT RUN-TO-RUN LONGER RANGE SOLUTIONS.            
HAVE INTRODUCED SOME ASPECTS OF THE LATEST TREND INTO THE                       
FORECAST... BUT SLOWED THE EVOLUTION QUITE A BIT TO ACCOUNT FOR THE             
UNCERTAINTY.                                                                    
TEMPERATURES...WILL CONTINUE COOLER ALONG THE LAKESHORE GRID                    
DEPICTION WITH AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF SOUTHEASTERLY OR LIGHT                     
SOUTHEAST FLOW THROUGH MID WEEK. AWAY FROM THE LAKE THOUGH... TEMPS             
SHOULD BE FAIRLY MILD WITH A FAIR AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE MONDAY AND                 
TUESDAY. MODELS ARE VERY DRY THROUGH THE COLUMN... SO CUT BACK                  
SUBSTANTIALLY IN THE CLOUD COVER FORECAST UNTIL WEDNESDAY.                      
&&                                                                              
.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
.MI...NONE.                                                                     
.LAKE HURON...                                                                  
  GALE WARNING...FOR THE SOUTH HALF...THROUGH THIS EVENING.                     
  SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...ALL NEARSHORE WATERS...THROUGH THIS EVENING.           
.LAKE ST CLAIR...GALE WARNING...THIS AFTERNOON.                                 
.MI WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...THROUGH THIS                   
EVENING.                                                                        
$$                                                                              
BRAVENDER/GSS/WAG                                                               
</PRE></TT></td>   mi