FXUS04 KWBC 251805
QPFPFD
 
QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
205 PM EDT FRI JUN 25 2004
 
PRELIM DAY 1 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID JUN 26/0000 UTC THRU JUN 27/0000 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR
 

...GULF COAST STATES NEWD INTO THE MID ATLC REGION...

MORE OF THE SAME FOR THE GULF COAST STATES AS ADDITIONAL S/WV
ENERGY WORKS SLOWLY EWD ACRS TX AND INTERACTS WITH DEEP
TROPICAL AIRMASS ENTRENCHED OVER THE GULF COAST REGION. 
USUAL PROBLEMS AGAIN TODAY..WITH THE MODELS MORE OR LESS IN
AGREEMENT WITH THE LARGE SCALE PATRN BUT HAVE TROUBLE WITH
THE MESOSCALE DETAILS WHICH RESULT IN CONSIDERABLE QPF
DIFFERENCES.  DEEPER CONVECTION CURRENTLY ALONG THE LA/UPR TX
COAST HAS CONTINUED TO SINK SWD THIS AFTN WHICH MAY SPELL A
TEMPORARY BREAK FOR THE HEAVIEST ACTIVITY ACRS PORTIONS OF
SRN LA/MS AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PD.  HOWEVER THERE IS
ALREADY A NWD RETURN AND A SLIGHT CONVERGENCE BNDRY SETTING
UP ALONG THE CNTL TX GULF COAST WHERE HEAVIER ACTIVITY MAY
TEND TO FOCUS THIS EVENING.  AS MID/UPR CIRC NEAR THE BIG
BEND CONTS TO MOVE EWD EXPECT ACTIVITY TO ONCE AGAIN SHIFT
NWD TOWARD THE UPR TX COAST LATER TONIGHT IN RESPONSE TO
INCREASED LOW LEVEL JET AND SPREAD INTO LA/SRN MS ON SAT. 
ETA LOOKS TO BE LOWERING PWS TOO MUCH AND SUSPECT THE GFS IS
BETTER AT HOLDING ONTO LARGE AREA OF 2 INCH PLUS PWS ACRS THE
NRN/WRN GULF.  AS A RESULT EXPECT SOME WIDESPREAD 1 TO 2 INCH
PLUS RAINS WITH ISOLD AMOUNTS GREATER THAN 4 INCHES.  
FARTHER E..SFC WAVE MOVING NEWD THRU THE MID ATLC REGION
AHEAD OF SHEARING S/WV TROF THRU THE TN VALLEY SHOULD
GENERATE AN AREA OF STG STORMS MAINLY TO ITS EAST OF THE LOW
THIS EVENING IN RESPONSE TO DAYTIME HEATING AND HIGH PWS IN
PLACE. WENT TOWARD A BLEND BETWEEN ETA/GFS AMOUNTS.  NORTH OF
THE MD/PA BORDER...DECENT FRONTAL CNVGNC..MSTR AND DECENT UPR
JET SUPPORT NEAR THE FRONT SUGGEST WETTER ETA MAY BE BEST
ALONG LENGTH OF THE FRONT. 


...ROCKIES/CNTRL AND SRN HI PLAINS...


MODELS MAINTAIN WEAK NW FLOW REGIME ACRS THIS REGION WITH
SEVERAL WK IMPULSE DVLPG/MOVING THRU WRN RIDGE AND
INTERACTING WITH RETURN FLOW/MSTR WORKING NWD FROM THE
SRN/CNTL HI PLAINS.   THE MYRIAD OF IMPULSES THAT THE GFS
DVLPS MAKES IT DIFFICULT TO TRUST ITS FCST..WHILE CONFIDENCE
IN MODEL HANDLING OF TIMING/DVLPMENT OF CNVTN IN THIS TYPE OF
PATRN IN GENL IS LOW. THERE SEEMS TO BE SOME GENL MODEL
CONSENSUS IN POOLING OF HIER MSTR THRU THE CNTL HI PLAINS AS
WEAK FRONTAL BNDRY RETURNS SLOWLY NW..SO TENDED TO FOCUS HIER
QPF AMOUNTS THRU PORTIONS OF ERN CO INTO SRN NE/WRN KS IN
EXPECTATION OF SOMEWHAT BETTER ORGANIZED ACTIVITY ACRS THIS
REGION.  OTHERWISE GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY HERE..GENLY WENT
TOWARD A MODEL BLEND IN QPFS. 

...NAME AREA....

NO MAJOR CHANGES ACRS THE NAME AREA WITH WEAK CONVERGENCE
EXPECTED TO FOCUS ACRS THE NRN SIERRA MADRE OCCIDENTAL WITH
LATE DAY/EVENING SCTD TSTMS. WITH DEEPER MSTR REMAINING OVER
SRN PORTIONS OF THE NAME AREA WHERE SOME .25 TO .75 INCH
AMOUNTS ARE INDICATED OVER THE FAVORED OROGRAPHIC AREAS. 

SULLIVAN

GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT WWW.HPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV



                                   
 
24HR QP VT 27/00Z
 0.01 226056 246067 254072 263078 275083 287084 296084 307088 
      310091 318094 326094 330094 332092 339084 343080 347078 
      358071 361068 364068 370068 387080 392087 393094 399107 
      403121 400132 401137 403140 405148 405158 404169 404172 
      407175 414174 419173 421175 426177 429175 431172 431168 
      429159 429153 429151 432152 435156 440166 444174 447181 
      450184 453184 457183 462181 464177 463173 458164 453155 
      457154 461156 466159 471164 477176 482191 481200 480206 
      479208 473213 472215 473218 477222 484226 496231 500237 
      502243 509255 513265 517275 529238 517213 514204 515193 
      518185 518177 516171 513169 512165 522157 522152 520149 
      517144 510134 497120 494115 493109 491103 488098 485094 
      479093 468092 463089 461085 456075 450072 445066 438056 
      435051 432044 431036 431027 431016 433010 433003 435996 
      434980 433970 432961 427952 424950 419948 407950 397953 
      391957 389959 383966 377976 373979 368980 357977 350976 
      347972 349946 351939 352934 353928 353920 351904 350898 
      351894 354876 358858 362848 367840 372831 377822 388811 
      395802 397796 401790 410781 418770 424761 435739 441727 
      447716 454707 461699 465693 467687 472679 480670 481666 
      485660 490645 492637 493631 493626 492620 491613 487604 
      483601 480597 480592 476591 472593 466597 458603 447612 
      441616 431624 422629 412636 394648 383657 378661 376664 
      366687 363694 361700 357712 348734 340751 330768 324776 
      317781 300794 297797 291799 284798 273798 263799 259800 
      256803 255808 257820 284850 286864 285873 280890 269922 
      259942 249960 244969 242974 242978 242985 239989 234996 
      234000 236003 240007 246012 253017 260020 265020 267022 
      271027 283037 290037 295036 300033 303029 307018 306011 
      304006 302001 303997 305992 309983 313974 318965 320962 
      324960 327965 331967 333968 332974 333977 331980 329983 
      321990 317997 314000 312005 312010 314013 317022 318028 
      323039 327051 329055 328059 325063 320074 313079 308082 
      307080 307073 304069 301065 299065 296066 291066 287063 
      283061 275058 269053 262046 257040 251036 249033 247026 
      246022 243020 235017 230015 
 0.01 458758 457755 454756 446760 441765 437772 434782 432788 
      431796 432801 435802 440800 446794 450786 453779 456771 
      458763 458758 
 0.01 483245 481242 478240 475239 472239 469239 466239 465239 
      466240 469241 472242 475243 477244 480245 483245 483245 
 0.01 494050 493042 489037 485029 483024 478011 475007 472005 
      469003 464003 462004 461009 461013 462025 464034 465041 
      467050 472064 479076 484081 486081 489078 490073 491068 
      493061 494056 494050 
 0.01 467835 466829 464824 460823 456828 453833 448848 444861 
      441875 438889 438906 440910 442909 444904 447890 450877 
      453862 456854 459847 466836 467835 
 0.01 446133 447130 446128 444125 440119 439114 439108 438104 
      436100 433098 429099 421099 420102 419107 417115 414122 
      417126 422131 428136 433132 436130 440131 445134 446133 
 0.01 342882 341879 341876 340874 337874 334876 333878 334881 
      335884 336888 337891 338894 339897 339894 341893 343889 
      342886 342885 342882 
 0.25 226045 231050 237054 244060 250064 258067 266070 270068 
      269065 264058 255054 250050 244042 240037 233031 228028 
 0.25 475612 473609 469607 466611 464616 460620 454625 445639 
      439652 432667 427678 422689 419692 413695 402694 389692 
      383693 377699 371708 369714 367721 365732 362737 357742 
      352750 338773 331785 326794 318804 313808 308811 298812 
      288810 283808 276809 272810 269814 270819 274823 278826 
      288828 297833 300836 300839 301845 299855 297863 289890 
      283913 280923 277932 269952 265964 262977 262988 264996 
      267000 272003 276004 283004 286002 290999 293995 298986 
      304975 309963 314951 316947 319942 331941 333937 333929 
      327901 326884 324874 321868 318860 316852 314848 314843 
      316839 324829 331823 338820 345813 353802 364790 367788 
      374786 384779 391775 396773 402771 405768 420750 427742 
      431736 437722 444709 449695 469646 471635 472626 475621 
      476617 475612 
 0.25 501210 501205 501203 500200 499195 497190 497188 494186 
      491189 491193 490198 492202 492204 495207 496208 497210 
      500211 501210 
 0.25 503141 501137 501136 498134 495131 492129 490128 487130 
      489134 489135 492138 494140 495140 498140 500142 503141 
 0.25 425997 425993 425989 424987 421989 420990 418993 418994 
      416998 416002 417006 419007 421006 422005 424001 424999 
      425997 
 0.25 421033 420025 417015 415009 412006 408003 406000 400991 
      397982 393978 388979 381984 374992 370000 367004 363006 
      356011 353015 353021 357026 360031 360035 358044 367046 
      375047 392055 399056 405054 407053 412051 417048 420043 
      421033 
 0.25 368818 368814 366814 364816 360822 358826 358830 356834 
      353839 354843 356843 359841 362836 365831 366826 367822 
      368818 
 0.25 254000 253998 251997 250996 248995 247993 245995 246998 
      247999 250000 253002 254000 
 0.50 467631 465627 463628 456633 451639 448644 443657 440666 
      433693 427715 424721 421726 416732 413738 410740 407740 
      403738 395737 384738 378738 374736 371737 369740 367742 
      359750 338787 329809 334808 339805 341803 353795 361787 
      371780 376778 381774 386771 390769 397768 402764 408759 
      410755 412751 411744 412741 415740 421740 427736 429731 
      438710 444697 448686 454673 457664 465644 467631 
 0.50 390711 390703 386701 380704 376708 374713 374718 373722 
      373726 375730 380728 385724 388721 389716 390711 
 0.50 397756 394756 394758 395758 397756 397756 
 0.50 412030 411023 409018 405009 401006 399001 395990 391987 
      386988 378995 374003 373008 372011 373013 380010 384010 
      391011 394013 397019 399023 403027 409034 412030 
 0.50 392042 391039 392037 392035 392033 390031 389030 386030 
      383030 380031 379032 377033 375036 375037 374039 375040 
      378041 380041 383042 385043 386043 389044 392043 392042 
 0.50 375021 374020 371020 368022 371023 374023 375021 
 0.50 321820 322816 319816 316816 313816 310817 307817 304818 
      302820 301821 303824 304825 305826 307827 310828 311827 
      313826 315825 318822 320821 321820 
 0.50 326918 325906 324896 322887 318879 315872 313867 310866 
      306868 304870 302875 299883 296889 292900 288914 285927 
      283934 280940 275951 272974 270981 270991 273996 279997 
      283995 288991 295981 299975 302970 307958 313944 319933 
      324925 326918 
 0.50 287817 286816 285814 283813 280813 278816 275817 275818 
      276819 277820 279821 282819 284819 287817 287817 
 0.50 264062 262059 258058 255057 250055 247052 245050 242048 
      238048 239052 242054 245057 250060 253062 256063 261063 
      264062 
 1.00 385755 380754 374753 369755 366757 363759 362763 358769 
      354775 354778 355780 364778 372774 375773 381765 383760 
      385755 
 1.00 319910 319906 318903 314904 311905 306906 302906 299908 
      296911 294916 288933 283950 281959 280969 279980 278988 
      282989 284985 287978 292975 295972 299966 303956 305949 
      311931 316922 317919 318913 319910 
 1.50 377764 374763 372764 369766 368768 370769 373767 375766 
      377764 
 1.50 310922 310918 308916 305916 300921 294929 291936 287946 
      285953 284960 285965 288970 291970 293969 298960 300953 
      303943 305935 307926 310922 
 2.00 301940 300934 299934 296938 293942 292945 291949 289954 
      288958 289965 290966 293965 294961 296957 298954 299949 
      300943 301940  
 
$$