AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                       
 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO                                             
 254 PM MST WED JAN 31 2007                                                     
 .SHORT TERM...                                                                 
 (TONIGHT AND THURSDAY)                                                         
 MAIN FORECAST CONCERN REMAIN SNOW AMOUNTS TONIGHT.                             
 CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATING              
 BROAD UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES BACK THROUGH THE               
 ROCKIES WITH TROUGH AXIS MOVING ACROSS NORTHWEST COLORADO ATTM.                
 WATER VAPOR IMAGERY ALSO INDICATING YET ANOTHER SYSTEM DIVING NORTH            
 OUT OF CENTRAL CANADA AND INTO THE NORTHERN TIER STATES ATTM. AT THE           
 SFC...COLD FRONT WHICH BLASTED ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO EARLY THIS              
 MORNING IS CURRENTLY BACKED UP ACROSS THE EASTERN MTS THROUGH                  
 EASTERN NEW MEXICO AND ACROSS WESTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE ATTM AS HIGH             
 PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD INTO THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS. REGIONAL            
 SATELLITE AND RADARS INDICATING CLOUD TOP COOLING AND WIDESPREAD               
 ECHOES ACROSS WESTERN AND SOUTH CENTRAL COLORADO ATTM.                         
 FOR TONIGHT...UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO TRANSLATE ACROSS THE STATE             
 WITH TROUGH AXIS MOVING ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL COLORADO AROUND 06Z THU           
 AND INTO SOUTHWEST KANSAS BY 12Z...AS NEXT CANADIAN SYSTEM CONTINUES           
 TO MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. MOISTURE AND LIFT ASSOCIATED                
 WITH PASSING SYSTEM SHOULD CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL               
 COLORADO THIS EVENING AND INTO WESTERN KANSAS OVERNIGHT WITH                   
 ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION DIMINISHING QUICKLY FROM WEST TO EAST                 
 WITH PASSAGE OF TROUGH AXIS...SAVE THE CENTRAL MTS WITH CONTINUED              
 OROGRAPHIC FLOWS. HAVE KEPT CURRENT HIGHLIGHTS IN PLACE ACROSS THE             
 SW AND CENTRAL MTS WITH ANOTHER 1 TO 4 INCHES EXPECTED THROUGH THE             
 EVENING. SPOTTER REPORTS INDICATING GENERALLY UNDER 2 INCHES HAS               
 FALLEN ACROSS THE EASTERN MTS ATTM...THOUGH WITH EAST TO NORTHEAST             
 LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE CONTINUING TO DEVELOP...WILL KEPT CURRENT                    
 HIGHLIGHTS ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN MTS AS WELL...WITH ADDITIONAL               
 ACCUMS BETWEEN 2 AND 6 INCHES EXPECTED...WITH HIGHEST AMOUNTS ACROSS           
 THE SOUTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTO MTS. SNOW HAS BEEN RATHER SPOTTY                 
 ACROSS THE I-25 CORRIDOR THUS FAR...BUT EXPECT THAT TO INCREASE AS             
 TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE AREA WITH AN ADDITIONAL 1 TO 3 INCHES                  
 POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY WESTERN AREAS CLOSER TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN.              
 NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF ACCUMULATING PRECIP ACROSS THE FAR            
 EASTERN PLAINS...BUT CANT RULE OUT A FEW SNOW SHOWERS OVERNIGHT                
 AHEAD OF PASSING SYSTEM. WITH COLD AIR IN PLACE...OVERNIGHT LOWS TO            
 REMAIN BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES...AND HAVE GONE AOB COOLEST                     
 GUIDANCE...ESPECIALLY THE SAN LUIS AND LOWER ARKANSAS VALLEYS WITH             
 PARTIAL CLEARING EXPECTED BY MORNING.                                          
 ON THURSDAY...NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT INCREASES ACROSS THE STATE AS               
 NEXT SYSTEM CONTINUES TO DIVE INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES WITH                   
 ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY PROGGED TO MOVE ACROSS NORTHEAST                   
 COLORADO BY LATE AFTERNOON. HAVE FOLLOWED CLOSER TO GFS SOLUTION               
 WITH FASTER MOVEMENT OF FRONTAL BOUNDARY...AND HAVE INTRODUCED                 
 CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE EASTERN MTS AND ALONG THE PALMER DVD FOR THE            
 AFTERNOON. WITH MOISTURE AND LIFT AND OROGRAPHIC FLOW INCREASING               
 ACROSS THE CENTRAL MTS...HAVE GONE WITH LIKELY POPS WITH 1 TO 3                
 INCHES POSSIBLE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. -MW                                     
 .LONG TERM...                                                                  
 (THU NIGHT THROUGH WED)                                                        
 ...FLUFFY SNOW ANTICIPATED FOR THU NIGHT INTO FRI...                           
 ...PREPARE NOW FOR EXTREMELY COLD TEMPERATURES FRI-WEEKEND...                  
 ...DANGEROUS WIND CHILL VALUES POSSIBLE FRI NIGHT-SAT...                       
 THU NIGHT AND FRI...NEXT CANADIAN WEATHER SYSTEM WILL BE TAKING AIM            
 ON THE CENTRAL ROCKIES AND THIS IS STRONGEST ONE OF THE ARCTIC                 
 SYSTEM INTRUSIONS. SIGNIFICANT COLD FRONT SHOULD BE BLASTING THROUGH           
 CO THU NIGHT AND COULD BE FASTER. A LITTLE BETTER AND DEEPER                   
 SYNOPTIC SCALE ASCENT IMPLIED GIVEN THE DYNAMICS. H5-H3 DIV-Q                  
 IMPLIED UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION JUXTAPOSED WITH H8-H7 AND                       
 H7-H6 IMPLIED UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION PER 2-D PETTERSON ANALYSES.               
 BOTH 12KM WRF AND GFS HAVE THIS SCENARIO FOR THU NIGHT INTO FRI                
 MORNING...SO CONFIDENCE IS SOMEWHAT HIGH OF PRECIPITATION AND                  
 ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL. HAVE INCREASED POPS TO HIGH "LIKELYS" FOR THU           
 NIGHT INTO FRI MORNING FOR THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN MOUNTAINS                   
 INCLUDING THE I-25 CORRIDOR. GIVEN THE THERMAL STRUCTURE ALONG THE             
 FRONT...EXCELLENT DENDRITIC SNOW GROWTH WILL BE LIKELY IN THE MOIST            
 LAYER RESULTING IN 20-1 TO 40-1 SNOW RATIOS PRODUCING FLUFFY SNOW              
 THAT CAN ADD UP QUICKLY IN LOW WATER CONTENT SNOWFALL. MIGHT NEED              
 SOME ADVISORIES FOR OUR EASTERN CO MOUNTAINS AND I-25 CORRIDOR AS              
 THE EVENT NEARS. PRECIPITATION CHANCES SHOULD BE DIMINISHING BY FRI            
 AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY BE STEADY OR SLOWLY FALLING                
 FRI...BUT IF THE PRECIPITATION STOPS DURING THE THE AFTERNOON...THEN           
 THERE COULD BE A COUPLE OF DEGREES RECOVERY. CURRENT TEMPERATURES              
 FORECAST LOOKS ON TARGET AND ONLY MINOR SPATIAL CONSISTENCY ISSUES             
 WERE TAKEN CARE OF.                                                            
 FRI NIGHT AND SAT...12KM WRF AND GFS KIND OF DIVERGE IN TERMS OF THE           
 AMOUNT OF MIDLEVEL TEMPERATURES WARMING THAT OCCURS. THE GFS IS                
 SLIGHTLY WARMER IN THE MIDLEVEL FRI NIGHT THROUGH SAT...WHILE THE              
 WRF HAS H7 TEMPERATURES -18C TO -26C EVEN DURING THE DAYTIME PERIOD            
 SAT. IT SHOULD BE MUCH BELOW AVERAGE CHILLY TEMPERATURES...EITHER              
 EXTREMELY COLD OR VERY COLD. SUB-ZERO LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE                 
 HIGHLY PROBABLE ACROSS MUCH SOUTHERN CO LOCATIONS FRI NIGHT AND                
 STRUGGLING TO WARM SAT...ESPECIALLY IN TRAPPED VALLEYS AND OVER                
 DENSE SNOW-PACK. A BIG FORECAST CONCERN WILL BE DANGEROUS WIND                 
 CHILLS FRI NIGHT INTO SAT. COULD REACH WARNING VALUES IN THE                   
 MOUNTAINS(E.G. -35F OR LOWER) AND ADVISORY TO MAYBE WARNING VALUES             
 AT THE LOWER ELEVATIONS. MOST AREAS WILL SEE WIND CHILL VALUES OF              
 -15F TO -35F LATE FRI NIGHT AND SAT MORNING. WIND CHILL HEADLINES              
 MAY BE NEEDED AS THE EVENT GETS CLOSER AND THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER               
 OUTLOOK HAS THIS HANDLED WELL RIGHT NOW. ANY PRECIPITATION                     
 POTENTIAL WOULD LIKELY BY AROUND THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE GIVEN THE              
 WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.                                                     
 SUN THROUGH WED...NORTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPS SUN AND INTO EARLY NEXT              
 WEEK AS THE EXTREMELY COLD TROUGH MIGRATES EASTWARD. MIDLEVEL                  
 WARMING STARTS SUN AND THE BIGGEST CHALLENGE WILL BE WHEN AND IF THE           
 LOW LEVEL ARCTIC AIR MASS RECEDES FROM EASTERN CO AND GETS "MIXED              
 OUT" FROM THE HIGH MOUNTAIN VALLEYS. HAVE TRENDED TOWARDS A                    
 MODERATING TEMPERATURE TREND...BUT HELD TEMPERATURES BACK A LITTLE             
 IN HIGH VALLEYS AND DENSE SNOW-PACK AREAS LIKE KLAA. HPC GUIDANCE              
 HAS A SIGNIFICANT WARM-UP FORECAST FOR TUE AND WED. THIS MAY BE                
 VALID AS A PATTERN CHANGE TO WESTERLY FLOW GIVEN MANY OF THE                   
 ENSEMBLE MEMBERS. THE CHALLENGE WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE WARM-UP OVER           
 DENSE SNOW-PACK...WHERE HPC AND MOS GUIDANCE HAVE BEEN TOO                     
 WARM PER GRIDDED VERIFICATION DATA. METZE                                      
 &&                                                                             
 .PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                            
 SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR COZ058>060-066-                 
 068-072>075-079-080.                                                           
 &&                                                                             
 $$                                                                             
 23/17                                                                          
</pre> co                                                                       

 AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                       
 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO                                             
 305 PM MST TUE JAN 30 2007                                                     
 .SHORT TERM...                                                                 
 (TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY)                                                        
 SHORT TERM CONCERNS ARE TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH SNOW CHANCES AND               
 AMOUNTS.                                                                       
 CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATING              
 WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE STATE WITH ONE WEAK SHORT              
 WAVE SHEARING APART AS IT DIVES ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN AS ANOTHER              
 STRONGER SYSTEM CONTINUES TO DIVE OUT OF CENTRAL CANADA AND ACROSS             
 THE NORTHERN ROCKIES ATTM. WATER VAPOR ALSO INDICATING SUBTROPICAL             
 MOISTURE STREAMING ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF OLD UPPER              
 LOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN BAJA REGION.                                           
 MODELS IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH WEATHER DETAILS WITH INCREASING                  
 WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE STATE TONIGHT AS CENTRAL CANADIAN               
 SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED 100+ KT JET CORE DIVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN               
 GREAT BASIN CARVING OUT A BROAD TROUGH ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES             
 TONIGHT. THE BROAD TROUGH ALOFT CONTINUES TO SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS THE            
 STATE THROUGH THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY...WITH TROUGH AXIS PROGGED ACROSS           
 CENTRAL COLORADO AT 00Z THU.                                                   
 FOR TONIGHT...INCREASING MOISTURE AND WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW PROGGED           
 ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST MTS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD              
 WITH BEST MOISTURE ACROSS THE EASTERN SAN JUAN MTS AND SOUTHERN TIER           
 ZONES WITH PROXIMITY TO SUBTROPICAL PLUME. OROGRAPHIC SNOW MODEL               
 YIELDING BETWEEN 2-4 INCHES ACROSS THE EASTERN SAN JUAN MTS                    
 OVERNIGHT AND ANOTHER 3-6 INCHES ON WEDNESDAY WITH INCREASING ASCENT           
 AHEAD OF BROAD TROUGH...HAVE ISSUED A SNOW ADVISORY FROM 06Z WED               
 THROUGH 06Z THU FOR ZONES 66 AND 68. LIGHT SNOW EXPECTED TO DEVELOP            
 LATE TONIGHT ACROSS THE CENTRAL MTS AS WELL WITH INCREASING WESTERLY           
 FLOW...THOUGH AMOUNTS TO REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA AT LEAST               
 UNTIL LATER WEDNESDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS TO REMAIN A CHALLENGE WITH               
 DEVELOPING LEE TROUGHING ACROSS THE PLAINS AND SOME INCREASING HIGH            
 CLOUDS TO HELP KEEP TEMPS UP...HOWEVER DO BELIEVE THERE WILL BE A              
 WINDOW THIS EVENING WHERE COLD AND SNOW COVERED AREAS ACROSS THE               
 LOWER ARKANSAS AND SAN LUIS VALLEY WILL TANK BEFORE STEADYING OUT              
 OR WARMING INTO THE EARLY MORNING.                                             
 WEDNESDAY...PASSING TROUGH SENDS ANOTHER FRONT AND RE-ENFORCING                
 SURGE OF COLD AIR ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO EARLY WEDNESDAY                      
 MORNING...WITH FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE PALMER DVD BETWEEN 15Z AND              
 17Z AND ACROSS THE REST OF THE PLAINS BY EARLY AFTERNOON. WITH LIFT            
 AND MOISTURE INCREASING ACROSS THE  REGION AHEAD OF TROUGH AXIS HAVE           
 GONE WITH LIKELY POPS ACROSS MOST OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND                    
 IMMEDIATE ADJACENT PLAINS AND MAINLY CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE FAR                
 EASTERN PLAINS. MODEL CROSS SECTIONS INDICATING GOOD DENDRITIC GROWTH          
 POTENTIAL WITH TEMPS BETWEEN -14C AND -20C WITHIN THE MOIST                    
 LAYER...WITH LATER SHIFTS POSSIBLY HOISTING HIGHLIGHTS ACROSS                  
 THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN MTS WITH SNOW ACCUMS BETWEEN 4-8 INCHES                
 POSSIBLE. WITH THE FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE PLAINS IN THE MORNING               
 WILL LIKELY SEE HIGHS BY THE LATE MORNING WITH DECREASING                      
 TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. -MW                                        
 .LONG TERM...                                                                  
 (WED NIGHT THROUGH TUE)                                                        
 ...WINTRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST SUN...                        
 ...PREPARE NOW FOR EXTREMELY COLD TEMPERATURES FRI-WEEKEND...                  
 WED NIGHT AND THU...THE COMBINATION OF A LONGWAVE TROUGH AND YET               
 ANOTHER COLD FRONTAL SURGE SHOULD BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR FLUFFY               
 SNOWFALL AND COLD TEMPERATURES. H7 TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO                
 RANGE FROM -12C TO -15C. SHOULD SEE PLENTY OF SYNOPTIC SCALE ASCENT            
 TO SQUEEZE OUT SNOWFLAKES FROM THE CLOUD COVER. COULD SEE ANOTHER              
 3-5 INCHES OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND 1-3 INCHES ACROSS THE LOWER                  
 ELEVATIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST CO. MIGHT NEED AN ADVISORY           
 FOR OUR EASTERN CO MOUNTAINS AND ADJACENT I-25 CORRIDOR THROUGH WED            
 EVENING...IF THE POTENTIAL SNOW EVENT STILL LOOKS GOOD. IT APPEARS             
 THE PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL SHOULD DIMINISH LATE WED NIGHT AND COULD           
 PICKUP AGAIN AROUND THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE THU AFTERNOON. THERE                
 COULD BE A BRIEF RESPITE OF THE FLUFFY SNOW POTENTIAL ON THU UNTIL             
 THE NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM TAKES AIM FOR THU NIGHT THROUGH FRI NIGHT. I           
 HAVE INCREASE POPS TO CATEGORICAL ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS               
 HIGHER TERRAIN WED EVENING GIVEN THE SNOW ADVISORY. ALSO...INCREASED           
 POPS TO HIGH "CHANCE" AND "LIKELY" FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE                    
 MOUNTAINS AND I-25 CORRIDOR FOR WED EVENING. DECREASED OR REMOVED              
 POPS FOR THU...BUT MAINTAINED SOME LOW POPS AROUND THE CONTINENTAL             
 DIVIDE.                                                                        
 FRI THROUGH SUN...DEEP LONGWAVE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE POLAR LOW              
 OVER CENTRAL CANADA INTO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. THERE HAS BEEN                   
 RELATIVELY GOOD CONSISTENCY ON THIS PATTERN DEVELOPING FOR LATE THIS           
 WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. FOLLOWED THE 06Z/30 DGEX GIVEN THE FINER                
 TERRAIN RESOLUTION. H7 TEMPERATURES ARE PROGGED TO RANGE FROM -18C             
 TO -28C FRI AND SLIGHTLY WARMING THROUGH THE WEEKEND. HIGH AND LOW             
 TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY BE IN THE SUB-ZERO VALUES FOR OUR MOUNTAINS           
 AND HIGH VALLEYS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. ALSO...THE SOUTHEAST CO PLAINS           
 WILL RANGE FROM SUB-ZERO VALUES INTO THE TEENS. FRI COULD BE A                 
 BRUTAL DAY. GIVEN THE POTENTIAL SYNOPTIC ASCENT AND THERMAL                    
 STRUCTURE PROJECTED FOR FRI-SAT...HIGH SNOW RATIOS WILL BE LIKELY              
 20-1 TO 40-1...SO JUST A MINUTE AMOUNT OF QPF COULD PRODUCE 1-6                
 INCHES OF FLUFFY SNOW. INCREASED POPS TO HIGH "CHANCE" FOR THE                 
 MOUNTAINS AND I-25 CORRIDOR ON FRI...AND CONTINUED "SLIGHT CHANCE"             
 TO NO MENTION OVER THE WEEKEND. WHILE WIND SPEEDS WILL NOT BE ALL              
 THAT STRONG...IT WILL NOT TAKE MUCH WIND SPEED TO DROP THE WIND                
 CHILL VALUES GIVEN THE EXTREMELY COLD TEMPERATURES.  WIND CHILL                
 READINGS OF -25F TO -35F IN THE MOUNTAINS AND -20F TO 0F WILL BE               
 COMMON FRI THROUGH THE WEEKEND.                                                
 MON AND TUE...MEDIUM RANGE MODELS PROJECTING NORTHWEST FLOW TO                 
 DEVELOP OVER THE ROCKIES AS THE EXTREMELY COLD LONGWAVE TROUGH                 
 MIGRATES EASTWARD. A BIG CHALLENGE IF AND WHEN THE MODIFIED ARCTIC AIR         
 MASS WILL RECEDE ACROSS EASTERN CO. AGAIN...FOLLOWED THE 06Z/30 DGEX           
 FINER TERRAIN RESOLUTION MODULE. WILL PLAY A MODERATING TEMPERATURE            
 TREND...EXCEPT FOR THE LOWER AR RIVER VALLEY IN EXTREME SOUTHEAST CO           
 GIVEN THE 1-2 FEET OF SNOW PACK...AND POSSIBLY MORE...THAT WILL BE OVER        
 THIS AREA. MOS/HPC GUIDANCE HAS BEEN 10-20 DEGREES TOO WARM IN THESE           
 DENSE SNOW PACK AREAS. IT HAS BEEN SEVERAL WEEKS SINCE KLAA WAS 35F            
 OR GREATER...SO WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES ON THE COLD SIDE UNTIL THEY             
 REACH ABOVE 35F. METZE                                                         
 &&                                                                             
 .PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                            
 SNOW ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 11 PM MST WEDNESDAY FOR               
 COZ066-068.                                                                    
 &&                                                                             
 $$                                                                             
 23/17                                                                          
</pre> co                                                                       

 AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                       
 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL                                          
 954 AM EST WED JAN 31 2007                                                     
 .DISCUSSION...                                                                 
 CURRENT...WRN ATLC LOW PRES HAS DRAGGED A WEAK FRONTAL TROUGH ACROSS           
 NRN/CTRL FL. DUE TO DVLPG LOW PRES OVER THE WRN GOMEX THE TROUGH HAS           
 SLOWED CONSIDERABLY AND IS ALREADY FALLING APART AS I TYPE. NORTH OF           
 THIS DISSIPATING FEATURE...EXPANSIVE SFC HIGH PRES RIDGE HAS MOVED             
 INTO THE MID MS/OH/TN VLYS. MORNING RAOBS/RUC ANLYS FIELDS INDICATE            
 THE LARGE SWATH OF >90% H70-H50 RH WHICH MOVED OVER THE STATE LAST             
 NIGHT...PRODUCING NMRS SPRINKLES IS MOVING OFF TO THE EAST. FIRST              
 HR OR SO OF VIS SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT LAST NIGHT`S EXTENSIVE            
 MID LEVEL CLOUD CANOPY IS THINNING OUT QUITE A BIT ATTM.                       
 TODAY...EXPECT ENOUGH BREAKS TO DEVELOP THIS AFTN FOR SKIES TO WIND            
 UP AVGING "PSUNNY"...HOWEVER WILL KEEP AN EYE ON WHAT APPEARS TO BE            
 A WEAK LOW/MID LEVEL VORT IN THE GOMEX BTWN BUOYS 42001/42003 TO SEE           
 IF IT MIGHT HAVE THE POTENTIAL SPREAD ADDITIONAL CLOUDS THIS WAY BY            
 LATE AFTN...BUT FOR NOW IT APPEARS THAT THIS WON`T BE THE CASE.                
 GIVEN THIS...WE SHOULD WIND REACHING FCSTR MAX TEMPS CWA-WIDE...AND            
 DON`T SEE A PRESSING NEED FOR A ZFP UPDATE.                                    
 &&                                                                             
 .AVIATION...VFR WITH DCRSG COVRG OF BKN MID LEVEL CIGS.                        
 &&                                                                             
 .MARINE...LATEST BUOY OBS CONTINUE TO SHOW N-NNW WINDS OF 15-20KT.             
 NEAR SHORE. OVER THE LAST 2HR...SCRIPPS BUOY 41114 (OFFSHORE FPR)              
 HAS ACTUALLY NUDGED INTO THE 3-4FT RANGE...ABOVE THE CURRENT FCST.             
 ALL INDICATIONS FOR THE SHORT RANGE GUIDANCE IS THAT THE LOCAL PGRAD           
 WILL SLACKEN THIS AFTN...ALLOWING WINDS TO DROP OFF TO 10-15KT AS              
 THE FLOW VEERS FROM N TO NE. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE CURRENT CONDS...              
 PLAN TO KEEP CAUTIONARY STMT FOR THE FLG-COF 20-60NM LEG GOING THRU            
 EARLY AFTN. WILL ALSO TWEAK SEAS OVER THE 0-20NM COF-JUP LEG UP TO             
 2-4FT TO ACCT FOR CURRENT CONDS.                                               
 &&                                                                             
 .MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                            
 FL...NONE.                                                                     
 AM...NONE.                                                                     
 &&                                                                             
 $$                                                                             
 CRISTALDI                                                                      
</pre> fl                                                                       

 AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                       
 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL                                        
 500 AM EST WED JAN 31 2007                                                     
 .SYNOPSIS...                                                                   
 07Z WATER VAPOR AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOWING A FAIRLY ACTIVE PATTERN               
 ACROSS THE CONUS. SEVERAL VERY DISTINCT SHORTWAVES CAN BE SEEN                 
 RIDING THE NORTHERN STREAM...ONE DROPPING OUT OF SOUTH-CENTRAL                 
 CANADA INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND ANOTHER ABOUT TO EXIT THE                  
 CAROLINA COAST. WEAKLY AMPLIFIED RIDING IS SEEN ACROSS THE LOWER               
 MISSISSIPPI VALLEY FOLLOWED CLOSELY BY ENERGY PUSHING ACROSS THE               
 SOUTHWEST UNITED STATES.                                                       
 AT THE SURFACE WE SEE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING TO OUR NORTH ACROSS THE           
 TENNESSEE VALLEY. A COLD FRONT ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF THIS HIGH             
 IS NOW PUSHING THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA BRINGING ANOTHER SHOT OF              
 COOL AND DRY AIR FOR TODAY. LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE BACK            
 EDGE OF THE CLOUDS CONTINUING TO PROGRESS EAST AND SOUTHEAST ACROSS            
 THE AREA. MOST LOCATIONS SHOULD SEE A PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY MORNING           
 WITH THE EXCEPTION THE THE SOUTHEAST BIG BEND WHICH WILL TAKE A BIT            
 LONGER TO CLEAR OUT. NEARLY STATIONARY WEAK LOW PRESSURE CAN ALSO BE           
 SEEN IN THE WESTERN GULF. THIS LOW WILL WEAKEN TODAY AND THEN BE               
 REPLACED BY A MUCH MORE DYNAMIC SYSTEM THAT SHOULD BE OUR NEXT                 
 WEATHER MAKER STARTING LATE TONIGHT AND THROUGH THE DAY ON THURSDAY.           
 &&                                                                             
 .SHORT TERM...                                                                 
 (TODAY-FRIDAY) AS MENTIONED ABOVE COLD FRONT WILL CLEAR SOUTH OF THE           
 FORECAST AREA DURING THE MORNING HOURS TODAY. THE CLOUDS WILL                  
 CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTH AS WELL WITH PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES FOR           
 MOST LOCATIONS THIS MORNING. LOW PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO TAKE SHAPE             
 IN THE WESTERN GULF THIS AFTERNOON WITH A DEVELOPING WARM FRONT                
 MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-CENTRAL GULF COAST BY LATE IN THE DAY. WOULD           
 EXPECT TO SEE HIGH CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE BEGIN TO                
 OVERSPREAD OUR SKIES BY LATER TODAY AND ESPECIALLY DURING THE                  
 EVENING HOURS. WITH COLD AIR ADVECTION THROUGH THE DAY...HIGH                  
 TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON THE COOL SIDE ONLY REACHING INTO THE MIDDLE            
 50 MOST LOCATIONS.                                                             
 RAIN CHANCES WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST TONIGHT AS THE           
 WARM FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEVELOPING STORM IN THE WESTERN GULF            
 BEGINS TO APPROACH. NOT THINKING THAT THE RAIN TONIGHT WILL BE ALL             
 THAT HEAVY...BUT COVERAGE COULD BECOME QUITE WIDESPREAD AFTER                  
 MIDNIGHT IN THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CWA.                                       
 LOW BEINGS TO INTENSIFY AND MOVE NORTHEAST ON THURSDAY. GUIDANCE IS            
 IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON A LOW POSITION SOMEWHERE NEAR OR JUST              
 NORTH OF MOBILE ALABAMA BY THURSDAY EVENING. THE WARMFRONT SHOULD              
 SLOWLY PUSH NORTH THROUGH THE DAY...ALTHOUGH WIDESPREAD AREAS OF               
 SHOWER AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL HELP TO SLOW THE FRONTS                 
 PROGRESS. RAINFALL ON THURSDAY MAY BE MODERATE TO HEAVY AT                     
 TIMES...ESPECIALLY FROM THE AFTERNOON INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.                
 TEMPERATURES WILL BE QUITE TRICKY. MOST SO ACROSS THE NORTH. RIGHT             
 NOW WILL BE GOING WITH HIGHS FROM NEAR 60 NORTH TO THE MIDDLE/UPPER            
 60 SOUTH. TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE NORTH ARE LIKELY TO BE RATHER COOL           
 THROUGH A GOOD PORTION OF THE DAY UNTIL THE WARM FRONT CAN PUSH                
 THROUGH. FOR THAT REASON THE HIGH NEAR 60 ACROSS OUR NORTHERN AL/GA            
 COUNTIES WILL LIKELY WAIT TO VERY LATE IN THE DAY. ALSO AS THE DAY             
 PROGRESSES...JUST ENOUGH INSTABILITY IS POSSIBLE FOR ISOLATED TO               
 SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE WARM SECTOR BEHIND THE WARM FRONT.              
 SHEAR PROFILES LOOK IMPRESSIVE ENOUGH TO PRODUCE A FEW STRONG                  
 THUNDERSTORMS AND SPC HAS OUTLOOKED PORTIONS OF OUR AREA FOR A                 
 SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER.                                                 
 THE LOW WILL PUSH OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST LATE THURSDAY NIGHT                  
 DRAGGING AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT THROUGH AREA. SHOWERS AND ISOLATED           
 THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT UNTIL THIS               
 FRONT HAS PASSES...ESPECIALLY IN THE EAST. ONCE AGAIN SOME OF THE              
 RAINFALL MAY BE ON THE HEAVY SIDE AT TIMES. EXACT AMOUNTS ARE                  
 UNCERTAIN BUT A GOOD PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA IS LIKELY TO SEE             
 1"+ RAINFALL WITH THIS SYSTEM WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR MORE. WILL                
 OUTLOOK AS WELL IN THE HWO. COLD FRONT WILL BE SLOW TO CLEAR THE               
 SOUTHEAST BIG BEND WITH A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS LIKELY INTO FRIDAY             
 MORNING. GUIDANCE SPLITS AT THIS POINT...WITH THE GFS CLEARING US              
 OUT AND THE NAM HOLDING THE FRONT AND SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS OUR               
 SOUTHERN ZONES. NAM IS AN OUTLIER IN ITS SOLUTION WITH THE GFS                 
 HAVING STRONG BACKING FROM THE ECMWF. FOR THIS REASON DROPPED POPS             
 BY LATE FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT FOR MOST LOCATIONS.                        
 .LONG TERM...                                                                  
 (SATURDAY-WEDNESDAY) AREA IS IN THE SQUEEZE ON SATURDAY AND SATURDAY           
 NIGHT BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR NORTH AND THE FRONT TO SOUTH                
 SOUTH TRYING TO COME BACK NORTH. GFS HAS BEEN VERY PERSISTENT ON               
 BRINGING QPF BACK INTO THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE AREA BY LATE                  
 SATURDAY AND THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. RAN THE FORECAST IN A SIMILAR             
 FASHION WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS NORTHWEST TO LIKELY POPS IN THE FAR            
 SOUTHEAST. EITHER WAY...HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH LOOKS TO WIN THE            
 BATTLE BY SUNDAY WITH THE PRECIP PUSHING SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA            
 BY EARLY AFTERNOON. JUST FOR MENTIONING...THE AIRMASS COMING INTO              
 THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY IS RATHER COLD. IF...IF THERE            
 WAS ANY LINGERING LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS SOUTHEAST ALABAMA OR            
 SOUTHWEST GEORGIA...THICKNESS VALUES BOTH (1000-850/850-700) WOULD             
 INDICATED THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW FLAKES OF SNOW TO MIX IN. AT THIS            
 TIME THE THINKING IS THAT THE PRECIP WILL EXIT TO RAPIDLY...BUT                
 THERE IS A CHANCE. EITHER WAY ANY LINGERING PRECIP WOULD BE VERY               
 LIGHT AND ANY FROZEN PRECIP WOULD NOT AMOUNT TO MUCH.                          
 UPPER PATTERN FOR THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK WILL FEATURE A VERY              
 DEEP AND COLD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IN THE EASTERN CONUS AND SURFACE              
 HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR NORTH. AT THIS TIME IT LOOKS DRY BUT COOL FOR             
 THE MONDAY-WEDNESDAY TIMEFRAME.                                                
 &&                                                                             
 .AVIATION...                                                                   
 DESPITE WIDESPREAD OVERCAST CONDITIONS AND OCCASIONAL                          
 SPRINKLES SO FAR TONIGHT...VFR WEATHER IS BEING REPORTED AT                    
 ALL OF OUR LOCAL STATIONS. THE CEILINGS (AROUND 8K FT) WILL                    
 GRADUALLY DISSIPATE FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST BETWEEN NOW                    
 AND DAY BREAK...AS WILL THE VERY LIGHT SHOWERS. IN FACT...ANY                  
 SHOWERS THAT OCCUR TONIGHT WILL BE OF LITTLE IMPACT TO                         
 OPERATIONS. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE 10 KT OR LESS TONIGHT                      
 AND WEDNESDAY...AND QUICKLY VEER FROM NORTHWEST EARLY                          
 TODAY...TO EAST BY WEDNESDAY EVENING. A MORE SIGNIFICANT                       
 WEATHER SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP IN THE GULF AND APPROACH LATER                     
 TODAY AND TONIGHT...BUT IT IS STILL A BIT TOO EARLY TO                         
 FORECAST ANY RAIN THROUGH 06 UTC.                                              
 &&                                                                             
 .MARINE...                                                                     
 HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDS ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS                         
 TODAY BEFORE RAPIDLY MOVING OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST AS LOW                     
 PRESSURE DEVELOPS IN THE WESTERN GULF. THE TIGHTENING GRADIENT                 
 BETWEEN THIS HIGH AND THE DEVELOPING LOW WILL INCREASE WINDS AND               
 SEAS TO CAUTION LEVELS IN THE OFFSHORE LEGS TODAY AND FOR ALL LEGS             
 TONIGHT. THIS LOW WILL INTENSIFY AS IT MOVES NORTH OF THE COASTAL              
 WATERS THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. WIND AND SEAS ARE ANTICIPATED              
 TO REACH ADVISORY LEVELS THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT WITH                     
 WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. SOME OF THE STORMS WILL HAVE             
 THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE. COLD FRONT WILL CROSS                
 THE WATERS THURSDAY NIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE                  
 BRIEFLY BUILDING IN BY LATE IN THE DAY. GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN ONCE             
 AGAIN FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND BETWEEN THE FRONT TO OUR SOUTH AND              
 STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING TO OUR NORTH. EXPECT AN EXTENDED                 
 PERIOD OF CAUTION LEVEL WINDS FROM THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST BOTH                
 SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.                                                           
 &&                                                                             
 .FIRE WEATHER...                                                               
 CANCELLED THE RED FLAG WARNING FOR OUR GEORGIA COUNTIES FOR THIS               
 AFTERNOON...DEWPOINTS HAVE BEEN PERSISTENTLY TOO LOW IN THE GUIDANCE           
 AND ADJUSTED CURRENT GRIDS TO REFLECT THIS. RH VALUES ARE NO LONGER            
 ANTICIPTATED TO REACH CRITICAL DURATIONS. RED FLAG WARNING REMAIN IN           
 EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND BIG BEND              
 REGIONS. INCREASING MOISTUREA AND RAIN CHANCES FOR THURSDAY WILL END           
 ANY FIRE WX THREAT.                                                            
 &&                                                                             
 .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                               
 TALLAHASSEE  54  43  67  56  66 /  10  60  90  90  30                          
 PANAMA CITY  54  49  67  56  65 /  10  70  90  90  20                          
 DOTHAN       51  43  62  49  63 /  10  70  90  80  20                          
 ALBANY       51  41  62  49  64 /   0  50  90  90  20                          
 VALDOSTA     54  42  68  57  66 /  10  40  80  90  30                          
 CROSS CITY   57  46  69  61  69 /  10  40  70  80  50                          
 &&                                                                             
 .TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                            
 AL...NONE.                                                                     
 GA...NONE.                                                                     
 FL...RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON EST /11AM CST/ TODAY TO 5 PM EST               
 /4 PM CST/ THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: CALHOUN...DIXIE             
 ...GADSDEN...HOLMES...INLAND WALTON...JACKSON...JEFFERSON...LAFAYETTE          
 ...LEON...LIBERTY...MADISON...TAYLOR...WAKULLA...AND WASHINGTON.               
 GMZ750...NONE.                                                                 
 GMZ755...NONE.                                                                 
 GMZ770...NONE.                                                                 
 GMZ775...NONE.                                                                 
 &&                                                                             
 $$                                                                             
 AVIATION...FOURNIER                                                            
 REST OF DISCUSSION...MROCZKA                                                   
</pre> fl                                                                       

 AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                       
 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA                                      
 226 AM EST TUE JAN 30 2007                                                     
 .AVIATION...                                                                   
 NEXT MESO VORT WILL MOVE SOUTH DOWN LAKE MICHIGAN AND SHOULD                   
 EVENTUALLY TURN SE. LATEST NAM/WRF WHICH APPEARS TO HAVE A GOOD                
 HANDLE ON THIS SYSTEM AS LATEST RADAR AND SATELLITE ALREADY STARTING           
 TO SHOW THIS SYSTEM TURNING TO THE SOUTHEAST. SBN AND FWA SHOULD BE            
 WITHIN OR CLOSE TO THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY SO HAVE TRIED TO INDICATE            
 SOME TIMING HERE. WINDS SHOULD BACK TO THE SW OVERNIGHT...WITH SNOW            
 DIMINISHING TO FLURRIES OR ENDING. THE SYSTEM SHOULD TEND TO WEAKEN            
 SOME AS IT MOVE FARTHER INLAND.                                                
 &&                                                                             
 .UPDATE...                                                                     
 HAVE UPDATED FOR SMALL LOW/MESO LOW ASSOCIATED WITH IMPRESSIVE SHORT           
 TERM SNOWFALL AMOUNTS. THIS SYSTEM HAS BEEN TRACKING SE OVER FAR               
 SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN AND NORTHERN INDIANA. SBN MEDIA REPORTED               
 AMOUNTS SIMILAR TO WEEKEND BERRIEN COUNTY SNOWFALL RATES OF 5 INCHES           
 IN 3 HOURS. WITH LIGHTER/DRIER SNOW AND WINDS 15 TO 25 MPH...PLENTY            
 OF BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW ALREADY AND SHOULD PERSIST. EXPECT                
 SNOWFALL TO DROP OFF AS MESO LOW MOVES DEEPER INLAND. GIVEN ANOTHER            
 IN A SERIES OF MESO LOWS UPSTREAM OVER CENTRAL LAKE MICHIGAN...HAVE            
 ADDED A SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW ADVISORY THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT...                
 ALTHOUGH SHOULD BE SOMEWHAT OF A BREAK IN SNOWFALL THIS AFTERNOON              
 BETWEEN SYSTEMS... EXCEPT FOR AREAS CLOSER TO DOWNSTREAM OF LAKE               
 MICHIGAN.                                                                      
 &&                                                                             
 .PREV DISCUSSION...                                                            
 /ISSUED 404 AM EST TUE JAN 30 2007/                                            
 SHORT TERM...                                                                  
 TODAY AND TONIGHT.                                                             
 WILL BE USING THE LATEST RUC AND 00Z NAM-WRF FOR THE SHORT TERM FCST           
 AS THEY SEEM TO HAVE A DECENT HANDLE ON THE SYNOPTIC AND MESOSCALE             
 SITUATION.                                                                     
 SFC ANALYSIS AT 08Z DEPICTED A CLIPPER SYSTEM ACRS THE WRN GREAT               
 LAKES REGION.  THE MAIN SFC LOW WAS LOCATED OVER WRN MICHIGAN WITH A           
 COLD FRONT TRAILING FROM THE LOW INTO WRN INDIANA...THEN BACK INTO             
 THE SRN PLAINS.  THE MAIN SFC LOW AND COLD FRONT WILL MOVE RAPIDLY             
 EAST THIS MORNING AWAY FROM THE REGION.  KIWX RADAR WAS SHOWING A              
 DECENT SIZE OF SNOW OUT AHEAD OF THIS FRONT OVER THE ERN TWO THIRDS            
 OF THE FCST AREA. SOME OF THE SNOW WAS LOCALLY HEAVY IN SPOTS AS               
 INDICATED BY THE 08Z KFWA OBSERVATION WHICH REPORTED AN INCH IN ONE            
 HOUR.  THIS SNOW WILL QUICKLY MOVE EAST EARLY THIS MORNING...AND               
 SHOULD BE EXISTING THE ERN FCST AREA BETWEEN 5 AND 6 AM.  TO THE               
 WEST...AN UPR LVL VORT MAX WAS LOCATED OVER NRN IL.  THIS FEATURE              
 WILL SWEEP ACRS NRN INDIANA BETWEEN 12Z AND 18Z...BRINING A ROUND OF           
 SNOW SHOWERS.  TO ADD TO THE MIX...LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL               
 DEVELOP AFTER 15Z AS THE MEAN LOW LVL FLOW VEERS TO A 290                      
 DIRECTION.  MODELS INDICATE THERE COULD BE A BREAK IN THE WIDESPREAD           
 PCPN...EXCEPT IN THE LAKE EFFECT REGIONS OF MICHIGAN AND FAR NRN               
 INDIANA...BY THIS AFTN...BUT WILL NOT TRY TO TIME THIS ATTM.  GUSTY            
 WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS OF 25 TO 30 MPH WILL CAUSE SOME BLOWING OF             
 SNOW...AND HAVE ADDED THIS TO THE ZONES ACRS NRN INDIANA...SRN                 
 MICHIGAN AND FAR NORTHWEST OHIO.  SNOWFALL AMOUNTS TODAY WILL RANGE            
 FROM AROUND A HALF INCH SOUTH TO 4 INCHES IN BERRIEN AND CASS                  
 COUNTIES...WHERE A LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT.            
 FOR TONIGHT...MEAN LOW LVL FLOW WILL VEER A LITTLE MORE TO THE                 
 NORTHWEST...ABOUT 300 DEGREES.  ONE LAST SURGE OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW             
 IS EXPECTED DOWNWIND OF LAKE MICHIGAN DURING THE EVENING.                      
 THEREAFTER...INVERSION HEIGHTS WILL BEGIN TO LOWER AND DRIER AIR               
 WILL GRADUALLY WORK INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST TO CAUSE THE LAKE            
 EFFECT PCPN TO DWINDLE CONSIDERABLY AFTER 06Z WEDNESDAY.  WILL RAISE           
 POPS ACRS THE MICHIGAN/FAR NRN INDIANA COUNTIES THIS EVENING IN                
 ANTICIPATION OF THE LAST ROUND OF LAKE EFFECT PCPN.  ADDITIONAL                
 SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WILL RANGE FROM A TRACE SOUTH (FLURRIES) TO 1 TO 2            
 INCHES ACRS FAR NRN INDIANA/SOUTHERN MICHIGAN.  SINCE POPS WILL BE             
 RAISED TO LIKELY ACRS THE NORTH...WILL EXTEND THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW             
 ADVISORY FOR BERRIEN AND CASS COUNTIES TO 06Z...OR 1 AM EDT.  TOTAL            
 SNOW ACCUMULATION WILL RANGE BETWEEN 4 AND 7 INCHES ACRS THE                   
 ADVISORY AREA.                                                                 
 AS FOR TEMPS TODAY...THEY WILL BE TRICKY AS COLD ARCTIC AIR WILL               
 CAUSE TEMPS TO TUMBLE INTO THE 10 TO 15 DEGREE RANGE BY MID MORNING            
 ACRS THE SWRN CWFA. TEMPS WILL REMAIN SLIGHTLY WARMER DOWNWIND OF              
 LAKE MICHIGAN.  THEREAFTER...ONLY A SLIGHT DIURNAL RISE IS EXPECTED            
 THIS AFTN.  FOR TONIGHT...LOWS WILL DIP INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS ACRS            
 MOST OF THE REGION...EXCEPT FOR LOCATIONS NEAR THE LAKE. WHERE TEMPS           
 WILL REMAIN IN THE 10 TO 15 DEGREE RANGE.                                      
 LONG TERM...                                                                   
 WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.                                                      
 THE ARCTIC EXPRESS CONTINUES TO BE THE WX FOCUS THROUGH THE FORECAST           
 PERIOD. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND PERIODS OF SNOW WILL BE THE              
 RULE.                                                                          
 FORECAST MODELS HAVE BEEN RELATIVELY STABLE IN SOLUTION...SO NO                
 REASON TO MAKE BIG CHANGES TO ONGOING FORECAST. AS POLAR VORTEX                
 GRADUALLY SINKS SOUTH INTO SOUTHERN CANADA...SURGES OF COLDER AIR              
 CONTINUE TO REINFORCE THE ALREADY BELOW NORMAL CONDITIONS. THE COLD            
 AIR CONTINUES TO CAUSE LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS TO DEVELOP WHEN THE            
 WIND DIRECTION IS FAVORABLE. WITH THE UPPER LOW IN THE AREA...A VERY           
 UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN CONTINUES AS SPOKES OF ENERGY ROTATE                 
 AROUND THE UPPER LOW. THEREFORE...MOST PERIODS HAVE A MENTION OF               
 SNOW THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.                                              
 COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON IS FORECAST INTO THE AREA THIS WEEKEND.              
 WITH FRESH SNOW COVER AND STRONG CAA...MIN TEMPS COULD APPROACH OR             
 FALL BELOW ZERO AND MAXS WOULD STRUGGLE TO CLIMB OUT OF THE SINGLE             
 DIGITS.                                                                        
 &&                                                                             
 .IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                            
 IN...SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY                   
      FOR INZ004>009-016>018.                                                   
 MI...SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR               
      MIZ079>081.                                                               
      LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR                     
 MIZ077-078.                                                                    
 OH...NONE.                                                                     
 LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR LMZ043-046.             
 &&                                                                             
 $$                                                                             
 SHORT TERM...SKIPPER                                                           
 AVIATION...HICKMAN                                                             
 LONG TERM....EDDY                                                              
</pre> in                                                                       

 AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                       
 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA                                      
 1150 AM EST TUE JAN 30 2007                                                    
 .UPDATE...                                                                     
 HAVE UPDATED FOR SMALL LOW/MESO LOW ASSOCIATED WITH IMPRESSIVE SHORT           
 TERM SNOWFALL AMOUNTS. THIS SYSTEM HAS BEEN TRACKING SE OVER FAR               
 SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN AND NORTHERN INDIANA. SBN MEDIA REPORTED               
 AMOUNTS SIMILAR TO WEEKEND BERRIEN COUNTY SNOWFALL RATES OF 5 INCHES           
 IN 3 HOURS. WITH LIGHTER/DRIER SNOW AND WINDS 15 TO 25 MPH...PLENTY            
 OF BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW ALREADY AND SHOULD PERSIST. EXPECT                
 SNOWFALL TO DROP OFF AS MESO LOW MOVES DEEPER INLAND. GIVEN ANOTHER            
 IN A SERIES OF MESO LOWS UPSTREAM OVER CENTRAL LAKE MICHIGAN...HAVE            
 ADDED A SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW ADVISORY THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT...                
 ALTHOUGH SHOULD BE SOMEWHAT OF A BREAK IN SNOWFALL THIS AFTERNOON              
 BETWEEN SYSTEMS... EXCEPT FOR AREAS CLOSER TO DOWNSTREAM OF LAKE               
 MICHIGAN.                                                                      
 &&                                                                             
 .AVIATION...                                                                   
 AN UPR LVL VORT MAX AND ASSOCD SFC TROF WILL MOVE ACRS NRN INDIANA             
 BETWEEN 12Z AND 18Z.  LATEST KIWX RADAR INDICATED A LOW LVL                    
 MESOSCALE LAKE MICHIGAN VORTICITY MOVING INTO SOUTHWEST LOWER                  
 MICHIGAN AND FAR NORTHWEST INDIANA.  THIS FEATURE WILL LIKELY DROP             
 VSBYS TO A 1/2SM MILE FOR A COUPLE HOURS AT KSBN.  THEREAFTER...ONLY           
 SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS AND MVFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED AT KSBN             
 UNTIL THIS EVENING.  FOR KFWA...MVFR CIGS/VSBYS CAN BE EXPECTED                
 THROUGH 15Z...THEN VSBYS WILL IMPROVE TO P6SM WITH ONLY A SCATTERING           
 OF LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS IN THE VICINITY.                                         
 FOR TONIGHT...ANOTHER SFC TROF AND LAST SURGE OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW IS           
 FORECAST TO MOVE ACRS THE KSBN TAF SITE BETWEEN 00Z AND 06Z.  WILL             
 INCLUDE A PERIOD OF IFR CONDITIONS DURING THIS TIME FRAME.  LAKE               
 EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH TO FLURRIES AND WILL PUSH NORTH              
 INTO MICHIGAN AFTER 06Z.                                                       
 SFC HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO BUILD INTO THE REGION AFTER 12Z               
 WEDNESDAY WITH VFR CONDITIONS RETURNING TO THE REGION.                         
 &&                                                                             
 .PREV DISCUSSION...                                                            
 /ISSUED 404 AM EST TUE JAN 30 2007/                                            
 SHORT TERM...                                                                  
 TODAY AND TONIGHT.                                                             
 WILL BE USING THE LATEST RUC AND 00Z NAM-WRF FOR THE SHORT TERM FCST           
 AS THEY SEEM TO HAVE A DECENT HANDLE ON THE SYNOPTIC AND MESOSCALE             
 SITUATION.                                                                     
 SFC ANALYSIS AT 08Z DEPICTED A CLIPPER SYSTEM ACRS THE WRN GREAT               
 LAKES REGION.  THE MAIN SFC LOW WAS LOCATED OVER WRN MICHIGAN WITH A           
 COLD FRONT TRAILING FROM THE LOW INTO WRN INDIANA...THEN BACK INTO             
 THE SRN PLAINS.  THE MAIN SFC LOW AND COLD FRONT WILL MOVE RAPIDLY             
 EAST THIS MORNING AWAY FROM THE REGION.  KIWX RADAR WAS SHOWING A              
 DECENT SIZE OF SNOW OUT AHEAD OF THIS FRONT OVER THE ERN TWO THIRDS            
 OF THE FCST AREA. SOME OF THE SNOW WAS LOCALLY HEAVY IN SPOTS AS               
 INDICATED BY THE 08Z KFWA OBSERVATION WHICH REPORTED AN INCH IN ONE            
 HOUR.  THIS SNOW WILL QUICKLY MOVE EAST EARLY THIS MORNING...AND               
 SHOULD BE EXISTING THE ERN FCST AREA BETWEEN 5 AND 6 AM.  TO THE               
 WEST...AN UPR LVL VORT MAX WAS LOCATED OVER NRN IL.  THIS FEATURE              
 WILL SWEEP ACRS NRN INDIANA BETWEEN 12Z AND 18Z...BRINING A ROUND OF           
 SNOW SHOWERS.  TO ADD TO THE MIX...LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL               
 DEVELOP AFTER 15Z AS THE MEAN LOW LVL FLOW VEERS TO A 290                      
 DIRECTION.  MODELS INDICATE THERE COULD BE A BREAK IN THE WIDESPREAD           
 PCPN...EXCEPT IN THE LAKE EFFECT REGIONS OF MICHIGAN AND FAR NRN               
 INDIANA...BY THIS AFTN...BUT WILL NOT TRY TO TIME THIS ATTM.  GUSTY            
 WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS OF 25 TO 30 MPH WILL CAUSE SOME BLOWING OF             
 SNOW...AND HAVE ADDED THIS TO THE ZONES ACRS NRN INDIANA...SRN                 
 MICHIGAN AND FAR NORTHWEST OHIO.  SNOWFALL AMOUNTS TODAY WILL RANGE            
 FROM AROUND A HALF INCH SOUTH TO 4 INCHES IN BERRIEN AND CASS                  
 COUNTIES...WHERE A LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT.            
 FOR TONIGHT...MEAN LOW LVL FLOW WILL VEER A LITTLE MORE TO THE                 
 NORTHWEST...ABOUT 300 DEGREES.  ONE LAST SURGE OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW             
 IS EXPECTED DOWNWIND OF LAKE MICHIGAN DURING THE EVENING.                      
 THEREAFTER...INVERSION HEIGHTS WILL BEGIN TO LOWER AND DRIER AIR               
 WILL GRADUALLY WORK INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST TO CAUSE THE LAKE            
 EFFECT PCPN TO DWINDLE CONSIDERABLY AFTER 06Z WEDNESDAY.  WILL RAISE           
 POPS ACRS THE MICHIGAN/FAR NRN INDIANA COUNTIES THIS EVENING IN                
 ANTICIPATION OF THE LAST ROUND OF LAKE EFFECT PCPN.  ADDITIONAL                
 SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WILL RANGE FROM A TRACE SOUTH (FLURRIES) TO 1 TO 2            
 INCHES ACRS FAR NRN INDIANA/SOUTHERN MICHIGAN.  SINCE POPS WILL BE             
 RAISED TO LIKELY ACRS THE NORTH...WILL EXTEND THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW             
 ADVISORY FOR BERRIEN AND CASS COUNTIES TO 06Z...OR 1 AM EDT.  TOTAL            
 SNOW ACCUMULATION WILL RANGE BETWEEN 4 AND 7 INCHES ACRS THE                   
 ADVISORY AREA.                                                                 
 AS FOR TEMPS TODAY...THEY WILL BE TRICKY AS COLD ARCTIC AIR WILL               
 CAUSE TEMPS TO TUMBLE INTO THE 10 TO 15 DEGREE RANGE BY MID MORNING            
 ACRS THE SWRN CWFA. TEMPS WILL REMAIN SLIGHTLY WARMER DOWNWIND OF              
 LAKE MICHIGAN.  THEREAFTER...ONLY A SLIGHT DIURNAL RISE IS EXPECTED            
 THIS AFTN.  FOR TONIGHT...LOWS WILL DIP INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS ACRS            
 MOST OF THE REGION...EXCEPT FOR LOCATIONS NEAR THE LAKE. WHERE TEMPS           
 WILL REMAIN IN THE 10 TO 15 DEGREE RANGE.                                      
 LONG TERM...                                                                   
 WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.                                                      
 THE ARCTIC EXPRESS CONTINUES TO BE THE WX FOCUS THROUGH THE FORECAST           
 PERIOD. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND PERIODS OF SNOW WILL BE THE              
 RULE.                                                                          
 FORECAST MODELS HAVE BEEN RELATIVELY STABLE IN SOLUTION...SO NO                
 REASON TO MAKE BIG CHANGES TO ONGOING FORECAST. AS POLAR VORTEX                
 GRADUALLY SINKS SOUTH INTO SOUTHERN CANADA...SURGES OF COLDER AIR              
 CONTINUE TO REINFORCE THE ALREADY BELOW NORMAL CONDITIONS. THE COLD            
 AIR CONTINUES TO CAUSE LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS TO DEVELOP WHEN THE            
 WIND DIRECTION IS FAVORABLE. WITH THE UPPER LOW IN THE AREA...A VERY           
 UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN CONTINUES AS SPOKES OF ENERGY ROTATE                 
 AROUND THE UPPER LOW. THEREFORE...MOST PERIODS HAVE A MENTION OF               
 SNOW THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.                                              
 COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON IS FORECAST INTO THE AREA THIS WEEKEND.              
 WITH FRESH SNOW COVER AND STRONG CAA...MIN TEMPS COULD APPROACH OR             
 FALL BELOW ZERO AND MAXS WOULD STRUGGLE TO CLIMB OUT OF THE SINGLE             
 DIGITS.                                                                        
 &&                                                                             
 .IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                            
 IN...SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY                   
      FOR INZ004>009-016>018.                                                   
 MI...SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR               
      MIZ079>081.                                                               
      LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR                     
 MIZ077-078.                                                                    
 OH...NONE.                                                                     
 LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR LMZ043-046.             
 &&                                                                             
 $$                                                                             
 SHORT TERM...SKIPPER                                                           
 AVIATION...HICKMAN                                                             
 LONG TERM....EDDY                                                              
</pre> in                                                                       

 AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                       
 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA                                      
 635 AM EST TUE JAN 30 2007                                                     
 .AVIATION...                                                                   
 AN UPR LVL VORT MAX AND ASSOCD SFC TROF WILL MOVE ACRS NRN INDIANA             
 BETWEEN 12Z AND 18Z.  LATEST KIWX RADAR INDICATED A LOW LVL                    
 MESOSCALE LAKE MICHIGAN VORTICITY MOVING INTO SOUTHWEST LOWER                  
 MICHIGAN AND FAR NORTHWEST INDIANA.  THIS FEATURE WILL LIKELY DROP             
 VSBYS TO A 1/2SM MILE FOR A COUPLE HOURS AT KSBN.  THEREAFTER...ONLY           
 SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS AND MVFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED AT KSBN             
 UNTIL THIS EVENING.  FOR KFWA...MVFR CIGS/VSBYS CAN BE EXPECTED                
 THROUGH 15Z...THEN VSBYS WILL IMPROVE TO P6SM WITH ONLY A SCATTERING           
 OF LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS IN THE VICINITY.                                         
 FOR TONIGHT...ANOTHER SFC TROF AND LAST SURGE OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW IS           
 FORECAST TO MOVE ACRS THE KSBN TAF SITE BETWEEN 00Z AND 06Z.  WILL             
 INCLUDE A PERIOD OF IFR CONDITIONS DURING THIS TIME FRAME.  LAKE               
 EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH TO FLURRIES AND WILL PUSH NORTH              
 INTO MICHIGAN AFTER 06Z.                                                       
 SFC HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO BUILD INTO THE REGION AFTER 12Z               
 WEDNESDAY WITH VFR CONDITIONS RETURNING TO THE REGION.                         
 &&                                                                             
 .PREV DISCUSSION...                                                            
 /ISSUED 404 AM EST TUE JAN 30 2007/                                            
 SHORT TERM...                                                                  
 TODAY AND TONIGHT.                                                             
 WILL BE USING THE LATEST RUC AND 00Z NAM-WRF FOR THE SHORT TERM FCST           
 AS THEY SEEM TO HAVE A DECENT HANDLE ON THE SYNOPTIC AND MESOSCALE             
 SITUATION.                                                                     
 SFC ANALYSIS AT 08Z DEPICTED A CLIPPER SYSTEM ACRS THE WRN GREAT               
 LAKES REGION.  THE MAIN SFC LOW WAS LOCATED OVER WRN MICHIGAN WITH A           
 COLD FRONT TRAILING FROM THE LOW INTO WRN INDIANA...THEN BACK INTO             
 THE SRN PLAINS.  THE MAIN SFC LOW AND COLD FRONT WILL MOVE RAPIDLY             
 EAST THIS MORNING AWAY FROM THE REGION.  KIWX RADAR WAS SHOWING A              
 DECENT SIZE OF SNOW OUT AHEAD OF THIS FRONT OVER THE ERN TWO THIRDS            
 OF THE FCST AREA. SOME OF THE SNOW WAS LOCALLY HEAVY IN SPOTS AS               
 INDICATED BY THE 08Z KFWA OBSERVATION WHICH REPORTED AN INCH IN ONE            
 HOUR.  THIS SNOW WILL QUICKLY MOVE EAST EARLY THIS MORNING...AND               
 SHOULD BE EXISTING THE ERN FCST AREA BETWEEN 5 AND 6 AM.  TO THE               
 WEST...AN UPR LVL VORT MAX WAS LOCATED OVER NRN IL.  THIS FEATURE              
 WILL SWEEP ACRS NRN INDIANA BETWEEN 12Z AND 18Z...BRINING A ROUND OF           
 SNOW SHOWERS.  TO ADD TO THE MIX...LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL               
 DEVELOP AFTER 15Z AS THE MEAN LOW LVL FLOW VEERS TO A 290                      
 DIRECTION.  MODELS INDICATE THERE COULD BE A BREAK IN THE WIDESPREAD           
 PCPN...EXCEPT IN THE LAKE EFFECT REGIONS OF MICHIGAN AND FAR NRN               
 INDIANA...BY THIS AFTN...BUT WILL NOT TRY TO TIME THIS ATTM.  GUSTY            
 WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS OF 25 TO 30 MPH WILL CAUSE SOME BLOWING OF             
 SNOW...AND HAVE ADDED THIS TO THE ZONES ACRS NRN INDIANA...SRN                 
 MICHIGAN AND FAR NORTHWEST OHIO.  SNOWFALL AMOUNTS TODAY WILL RANGE            
 FROM AROUND A HALF INCH SOUTH TO 4 INCHES IN BERRIEN AND CASS                  
 COUNTIES...WHERE A LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT.            
 FOR TONIGHT...MEAN LOW LVL FLOW WILL VEER A LITTLE MORE TO THE                 
 NORTHWEST...ABOUT 300 DEGREES.  ONE LAST SURGE OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW             
 IS EXPECTED DOWNWIND OF LAKE MICHIGAN DURING THE EVENING.                      
 THEREAFTER...INVERSION HEIGHTS WILL BEGIN TO LOWER AND DRIER AIR               
 WILL GRADUALLY WORK INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST TO CAUSE THE LAKE            
 EFFECT PCPN TO DWINDLE CONSIDERABLY AFTER 06Z WEDNESDAY.  WILL RAISE           
 POPS ACRS THE MICHIGAN/FAR NRN INDIANA COUNTIES THIS EVENING IN                
 ANTICIPATION OF THE LAST ROUND OF LAKE EFFECT PCPN.  ADDITIONAL                
 SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WILL RANGE FROM A TRACE SOUTH (FLURRIES) TO 1 TO 2            
 INCHES ACRS FAR NRN INDIANA/SOUTHERN MICHIGAN.  SINCE POPS WILL BE             
 RAISED TO LIKELY ACRS THE NORTH...WILL EXTEND THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW             
 ADVISORY FOR BERRIEN AND CASS COUNTIES TO 06Z...OR 1 AM EDT.  TOTAL            
 SNOW ACCUMULATION WILL RANGE BETWEEN 4 AND 7 INCHES ACRS THE                   
 ADVISORY AREA.                                                                 
 AS FOR TEMPS TODAY...THEY WILL BE TRICKY AS COLD ARCTIC AIR WILL               
 CAUSE TEMPS TO TUMBLE INTO THE 10 TO 15 DEGREE RANGE BY MID MORNING            
 ACRS THE SWRN CWFA. TEMPS WILL REMAIN SLIGHTLY WARMER DOWNWIND OF              
 LAKE MICHIGAN.  THEREAFTER...ONLY A SLIGHT DIURNAL RISE IS EXPECTED            
 THIS AFTN.  FOR TONIGHT...LOWS WILL DIP INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS ACRS            
 MOST OF THE REGION...EXCEPT FOR LOCATIONS NEAR THE LAKE. WHERE TEMPS           
 WILL REMAIN IN THE 10 TO 15 DEGREE RANGE.                                      
 LONG TERM...                                                                   
 WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.                                                      
 THE ARCTIC EXPRESS CONTINUES TO BE THE WX FOCUS THROUGH THE FORECAST           
 PERIOD. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND PERIODS OF SNOW WILL BE THE              
 RULE.                                                                          
 FORECAST MODELS HAVE BEEN RELATIVELY STABLE IN SOLUTION...SO NO                
 REASON TO MAKE BIG CHANGES TO ONGOING FORECAST. AS POLAR VORTEX                
 GRADUALLY SINKS SOUTH INTO SOUTHERN CANADA...SURGES OF COLDER AIR              
 CONTINUE TO REINFORCE THE ALREADY BELOW NORMAL CONDITIONS. THE COLD            
 AIR CONTINUES TO CAUSE LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS TO DEVELOP WHEN THE            
 WIND DIRECTION IS FAVORABLE. WITH THE UPPER LOW IN THE AREA...A VERY           
 UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN CONTINUES AS SPOKES OF ENERGY ROTATE                 
 AROUND THE UPPER LOW. THEREFORE...MOST PERIODS HAVE A MENTION OF               
 SNOW THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.                                              
 COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON IS FORECAST INTO THE AREA THIS WEEKEND.              
 WITH FRESH SNOW COVER AND STRONG CAA...MIN TEMPS COULD APPROACH OR             
 FALL BELOW ZERO AND MAXS WOULD STRUGGLE TO CLIMB OUT OF THE SINGLE             
 DIGITS.                                                                        
 &&                                                                             
 .IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                            
 IN...NONE.                                                                     
 MI...LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR MIZ077-            
      078.                                                                      
 OH...NONE.                                                                     
 LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR LMZ043-046.             
 &&                                                                             
 $$                                                                             
 SHORT TERM/AVIATION...HICKMAN                                                  
 LONG TERM....EDDY                                                              
</pre> in                                                                       

 AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                       
 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA                                      
 404 AM EST TUE JAN 30 2007                                                     
 .SHORT TERM...                                                                 
 TODAY AND TONIGHT.                                                             
 WILL BE USING THE LATEST RUC AND 00Z NAM-WRF FOR THE SHORT TERM FCST           
 AS THEY SEEM TO HAVE A DECENT HANDLE ON THE SYNOPTIC AND MESOSCALE             
 SITUATION.                                                                     
 SFC ANALYSIS AT 08Z DEPICTED A CLIPPER SYSTEM ACRS THE WRN GREAT               
 LAKES REGION.  THE MAIN SFC LOW WAS LOCATED OVER WRN MICHIGAN WITH A           
 COLD FRONT TRAILING FROM THE LOW INTO WRN INDIANA...THEN BACK INTO             
 THE SRN PLAINS.  THE MAIN SFC LOW AND COLD FRONT WILL MOVE RAPIDLY             
 EAST THIS MORNING AWAY FROM THE REGION.  KIWX RADAR WAS SHOWING A              
 DECENT SIZE OF SNOW OUT AHEAD OF THIS FRONT OVER THE ERN TWO THIRDS            
 OF THE FCST AREA. SOME OF THE SNOW WAS LOCALLY HEAVY IN SPOTS AS               
 INDICATED BY THE 08Z KFWA OBSERVATION WHICH REPORTED AN INCH IN ONE            
 HOUR.  THIS SNOW WILL QUICKLY MOVE EAST EARLY THIS MORNING...AND               
 SHOULD BE EXISTING THE ERN FCST AREA BETWEEN 5 AND 6 AM.  TO THE               
 WEST...AN UPR LVL VORT MAX WAS LOCATED OVER NRN IL.  THIS FEATURE              
 WILL SWEEP ACRS NRN INDIANA BETWEEN 12Z AND 18Z...BRINING A ROUND OF           
 SNOW SHOWERS.  TO ADD TO THE MIX...LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL               
 DEVELOP AFTER 15Z AS THE MEAN LOW LVL FLOW VEERS TO A 290                      
 DIRECTION.  MODELS INDICATE THERE COULD BE A BREAK IN THE WIDESPREAD           
 PCPN...EXCEPT IN THE LAKE EFFECT REGIONS OF MICHIGAN AND FAR NRN               
 INDIANA...BY THIS AFTN...BUT WILL NOT TRY TO TIME THIS ATTM.  GUSTY            
 WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS OF 25 TO 30 MPH WILL CAUSE SOME BLOWING OF             
 SNOW...AND HAVE ADDED THIS TO THE ZONES ACRS NRN INDIANA...SRN                 
 MICHIGAN AND FAR NORTHWEST OHIO.  SNOWFALL AMOUNTS TODAY WILL RANGE            
 FROM AROUND A HALF INCH SOUTH TO 4 INCHES IN BERRIEN AND CASS                  
 COUNTIES...WHERE A LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT.            
 FOR TONIGHT...MEAN LOW LVL FLOW WILL VEER A LITTLE MORE TO THE                 
 NORTHWEST...ABOUT 300 DEGREES.  ONE LAST SURGE OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW             
 IS EXPECTED DOWNWIND OF LAKE MICHIGAN DURING THE EVENING.                      
 THEREAFTER...INVERSION HEIGHTS WILL BEGIN TO LOWER AND DRIER AIR               
 WILL GRADUALLY WORK INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST TO CAUSE THE LAKE            
 EFFECT PCPN TO DWINDLE CONSIDERABLY AFTER 06Z WEDNESDAY.  WILL RAISE           
 POPS ACRS THE MICHIGAN/FAR NRN INDIANA COUNTIES THIS EVENING IN                
 ANTICIPATION OF THE LAST ROUND OF LAKE EFFECT PCPN.  ADDITIONAL                
 SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WILL RANGE FROM A TRACE SOUTH (FLURRIES) TO 1 TO 2            
 INCHES ACRS FAR NRN INDIANA/SOUTHERN MICHIGAN.  SINCE POPS WILL BE             
 RAISED TO LIKELY ACRS THE NORTH...WILL EXTEND THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW             
 ADVISORY FOR BERRIEN AND CASS COUNTIES TO 06Z...OR 1 AM EDT.  TOTAL            
 SNOW ACCUMULATION WILL RANGE BETWEEN 4 AND 7 INCHES ACRS THE                   
 ADVISORY AREA.                                                                 
 AS FOR TEMPS TODAY...THEY WILL BE TRICKY AS COLD ARCTIC AIR WILL               
 CAUSE TEMPS TO TUMBLE INTO THE 10 TO 15 DEGREE RANGE BY MID MORNING            
 ACRS THE SWRN CWFA. TEMPS WILL REMAIN SLIGHTLY WARMER DOWNWIND OF              
 LAKE MICHIGAN.  THEREAFTER...ONLY A SLIGHT DIURNAL RISE IS EXPECTED            
 THIS AFTN.  FOR TONIGHT...LOWS WILL DIP INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS ACRS            
 MOST OF THE REGION...EXCEPT FOR LOCATIONS NEAR THE LAKE. WHERE TEMPS           
 WILL REMAIN IN THE 10 TO 15 DEGREE RANGE.                                      
 &&                                                                             
 .LONG TERM...                                                                  
 WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.                                                      
 THE ARCTIC EXPRESS CONTINUES TO BE THE WX FOCUS THROUGH THE FORECAST           
 PERIOD. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND PERIODS OF SNOW WILL BE THE              
 RULE.                                                                          
 FORECAST MODELS HAVE BEEN RELATIVELY STABLE IN SOLUTION...SO NO                
 REASON TO MAKE BIG CHANGES TO ONGOING FORECAST. AS POLAR VORTEX                
 GRADUALLY SINKS SOUTH INTO SOUTHERN CANADA...SURGES OF COLDER AIR              
 CONTINUE TO REINFORCE THE ALREADY BELOW NORMAL CONDITIONS. THE COLD            
 AIR CONTINUES TO CAUSE LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS TO DEVELOP WHEN THE            
 WIND DIRECTION IS FAVORABLE. WITH THE UPPER LOW IN THE AREA...A VERY           
 UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN CONTINUES AS SPOKES OF ENERGY ROTATE                 
 AROUND THE UPPER LOW. THEREFORE...MOST PERIODS HAVE A MENTION OF               
 SNOW THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.                                              
 COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON IS FORECAST INTO THE AREA THIS WEEKEND.              
 WITH FRESH SNOW COVER AND STRONG CAA...MIN TEMPS COULD APPROACH OR             
 FALL BELOW ZERO AND MAXS WOULD STRUGGLE TO CLIMB OUT OF THE SINGLE             
 DIGITS.                                                                        
 &&                                                                             
 .PREV DISCUSSION...                                                            
 /ISSUED 1229 AM EST TUE JAN 30 2007/                                           
 AVIATION...                                                                    
 A FAST MOVING CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL PUSH ACRS THE WESTERN GREAT                  
 LAKES THROUGH 12Z...THEN IT WILL MOVE EAST INTO THE ERN GREAT                  
 LAKES BY 18Z. SVRL UPR LVL WX DISTURBANCES ALOFT WILL ACCOMPANY                
 THIS SYSTEM OVERNIGHT. THE COMBINATION OF UPR LVL LIFT AND LOW LVL             
 CONVERGENCE AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WILL BRING WIDESPREAD SNOW TO                
 NRN INDIANA ANS SUBSEQUENT TAF SITES THROUGH AT LEAST 15Z.                     
 THEREAFTER...COLD AIR FLOWING OVER THE RELATIVELY WARM WATERS OF               
 LAKE MICHIGAN WILL GENERATE LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS...WHICH                   
 SHOULD MAINLY AFFECT THE KSBN TAF SITE. MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS CAN BE             
 EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST 15Z...WITH MVFR AND POSSIBLE IFR                     
 CONDITIONS BEYOND 15Z WITH LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS. WIND GUSTS                
 AROUND 25 KNOTS CAN BE EXPECTED IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD                        
 FRONT...WHICH WILL CAUSE SOME BLOWING SNOW TO OCCUR AT KSBN BEYOND             
 12Z.                                                                           
 &&                                                                             
 .IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                            
 IN...NONE.                                                                     
 MI...LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR MIZ077-            
      078.                                                                      
 OH...NONE.                                                                     
 LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR LMZ043-046.             
 &&                                                                             
 $$                                                                             
 SHORT TERM/AVIATION...HICKMAN                                                  
 LONG TERM....EDDY                                                              
</pre> in                                                                       

 AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                       
 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY                                         
 945 PM EST WED JAN 31 2007                                                     
 .EVENING UPDATE DISCUSSION:                                                    
 LATEST IR SATELLITE LOOP IS SHOWING SOME ENHANCEMENT IN THE CLOUD              
 ELEMENTS OVER CENTRAL AND NORTHERN AR AND NRN AL ...LOOKING AT THE             
 RADAR TRENDS THAT AREA...THEY ARE SHOWING SOME INCREASE IN COVERAGE            
 TOO. BOTH THE CLOUDS AND PCPN ARE MOVING TO THE NORTHEAST TOWARDS              
 SRN KY.                                                                        
 A PRELIMINARY LOOK AT THE NEW 00Z NAM MODEL DATA IS NOT AS PROMISING           
 FOR SNOWFALL. THE AIR ALOFT WAS INITIALLY QUITE DRY TODAY AND IF               
 THE AIR DOESN`T BECOME SUFFICIENTLY SATURATED IN THE LOWER LEVELS...           
 ANY PRECIP THAT DOES FALL WILL EVAPORATE BEFORE REACHING THE GROUND.           
 THE 18Z GFS DID SHOW SUFFICIENT SATURATION AND ENOUGH SYNOPTIC LIFT            
 FOR AN INCH OR TWO OF SNOWFALL ESPECIALLY DURING THE 10Z-18Z TIME              
 FRAME ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN KENTUCKY. THIS MATCHES WELL WITH             
 OUR SNOW ADVISORY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE FA.                       
 THE LATEST RUC40 RH TRENDS SHOW A MAJOR INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL RH               
 SW TO NE ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION OVERNIGHT...THIS TOO WUD                    
 SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL FOR MEASURABLE SNOW LATER TONIGHT.                       
 BEFORE MAKING ANY MAJOR CHANGES...WE NEED TO LOOK AT THE FULL SUITE            
 OF 00Z MODEL RUNS...PLUS CHECK WITH THE NEXT HPC SNOW FCSTS AND                
 CONSIDER THEIR ANALYSIS TOO.                                                   
 COORDINATED WITH JKL AND THEY WERE PLANNING TO LEAVE THEIR ADVISORY            
 INTACT.                                                                        
 AT THIS TIME WE ARE NOT MAKING ANY CHANGES IN THE CURRENT FCST. --21           
 ....PREVIOUS FCST DISCUSSIONS FOR TODAY ARE BELOW:...                          
 .AVIATION DISCUSSION (00Z) FCSTS...                                            
 GENERAL AC CIGS 10 THSD OR ABOVE TO START OUT TAFS...WITH GRADUAL              
 INCREASE IN LOW AND MID LEVEL RH DURING THE NIGHT WHICH WILL                   
 EVENTUALLY LEAD TO SOME LIGHT SNOW...RIGHT NOW IT LOOKS AS THOUGH              
 THE MAIN BAND OF LIGHT SNOW WILL BE ACROSS SRN KY...SO WILL                    
 EVENTUALLY LOWER CIG AND VSBY CONDITIONS TO IFR FOR BWG AND MVFR FOR           
 LEX AND SDF. STILL SOME DOUBT ABOUT HOW MUCH SNOW WE WILL GET. WE              
 WILL HAVE TO CONTINUE TO MONITOR WX AND MODEL TRENDS CLOSELY. --21             
 .SHORT TERM...                                                                 
 (TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)...                                            
 ...SNOW ADVISORY ACROSS SOUTHERN KY AND SOUTHERN BLUEGRASS...                  
 SHORT-TERM FORECAST REVOLVES AROUND SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEMS AND SNOW           
 ACCUMULATION CHANCES WITH EACH.                                                
 TONIGHT-MIDDAY THURS...                                                        
 HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST TONIGHT...AS AN               
 INVERTED TROUGH OVER THE GULF MOVES FROM TEXAS TOWARD THE CAROLINAS.           
 MOISTURE IS NOT TOO IMPRESSIVE WITH THIS SYSTEM...HOWEVER THE                  
 DYNAMICS ARE STRONG. SOUTHERN JET OF ROUGHLY 150 KTS OR SO WILL BE             
 OVERHEAD...WITH THE CWA UNDER THE LEFT-EXIT REGION AFTER MIDNIGHT.             
 AMPLE LIFT WILL THUS HELP SNOW DEVELOP AFTER MIDNIGHT TOWARD                   
 MORNING. AREA SOUNDINGS INDICATE THE BEST CHANCE OF SNOW WILL BE               
 BETWEEN 10-17Z. SOME HEAVIER SNOW MAY MIX IN AT TIMES GIVEN UPSTREAM           
 REPORTS AND PROGGED -EPV ALOFT CO-LOCATED WITH MAX OMEGAS. BUT GIVEN           
 THE LACK OF MOISTURE AND SPEED OF SYSTEM...WILL NOT GET CARRIED AWAY           
 WITH SNOW AMOUNTS. THUS...WILL ISSUE A SNOW ADVSY FROM 1-2 INCHES              
 POSSIBLE MAINLY SE OF A LINE FROM MORGANTOWN TO LEBANON. MAY BE A              
 BIT TOO FAR NORTH WITH THE ADVY GIVEN THE NAM 18Z RUN...BUT 12Z                
 GFS/NAM AND HPC INDICATE FAR SRN KY COULD GET THESE ACCUMULATING               
 SNOWS. THE BIGGER PROBLEM WILL BE TIMING NOT THE ACTUAL ACCUMS. GIVEN          
 TIME OF DAY (NEAR MORNING COMMUTE TIME) FELT IT WAS WORTH BUMPING              
 UP THE SPS TO AN ADVSY. WILL KEEP THE HIGHER SNOW AMOUNTS ACROSS               
 THE FAR SERN CWA.                                                              
 ELSEWHERE...WILL CONTINUE SPS FOR AROUND AN INCH OF ACCUMULATION.              
 FEEL THAT THE THREAT IS MINIMIZED ACROSS CENTRAL KY...HOWEVER A                
 BETTER CHANCE MAY EXIST NEAR THE OHIO RIVER WITH THE DEFORMATION               
 ZONE DEVELOPING FROM KC TO WICHITA. THIS SHOULD ALIGN SOMEWHERE                
 ACROSS OUR NRN CWA...POSSIBLY NEAR THE KY/IN BORDER. SNOWFALL                  
 AMOUNTS WITHIN THE SPS AREA WILL BE HIGHER IN THE DEFORMATION                  
 ZONE...BUT IT IS STILL EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT SNOW ONLY.                         
 MAIN PRECIP WILL END BY MIDDAY (ADVY ENDS AT 18Z)...THOUGH LOW                 
 CLOUDS MAY CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. WITH THIS...EVEN A FEW              
 LIGHT SHOWERS/FLURRIES MAY CONTINUE INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. SFC              
 TEMPS MAY INCREASE ENOUGH ACROSS THE SOUTH WHERE A CHANGEOVER TO               
 LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE MAY OCCUR. HAVE A RAIN/SNOW MIX ACROSS THE                  
 SOUTH FOR NOW.                                                                 
 MIDDAY THURS-OVERNIGHT THURS...                                                
 SECOND WAVE IN SOUTHERN STREAM WILL QUICKLY MOVE TOWARD THE EAST               
 COAST RIGHT ON THE HEELS OF THE FIRST SYSTEM. THIS SYSTEM IS MORE OF           
 A CLOSED SFC LOW AS OPPOSED TO A SFC TROUGH...AND IS COMBINED WITH             
 EVEN STRONGER DYNAMICS ALOFT. HOWEVER MOISTURE IS EVEN MORE                    
 LACKING...BUT THE DYNAMICS ARE THERE FOR YET ANOTHER POSSIBLE                  
 ADVSY SITUATION THRS NIGHT-FRI MORN. WILL LOOK MORE AT IT TONIGHT              
 AND TOMORROW MORNING...BUT WILL HIT IT HARD IN THE HWO. THIS                   
 LATTER SYSTEM WOULD BE MORE OF A CWA-WIDE EVENT TOO. WILL CONTINUE             
 WITH ONE-INCH ACCUMS FOR NOW.                                                  
 AS FAR AS TEMPS GO THROUGH THE PERIOD...WILL ONLY DROP ABOUT 5                 
 DEGREES TONIGHT BEFORE CLOUDS INCREASE OVERNIGHT AND KEEP OUR TEMPS            
 STEADY. TOMORROW...WILL LIKELY HEAT UP...ESPECIALLY IN THE                     
 AFTERNOON. HOWEVER WILL UNDERCUT RUC13/GFS AS I FEEL THESE ARE                 
 RUNNING A BIT TOO HIGH. LOW TO MID 30S LOOK LIKELY FOR HIGHS THURS.            
 AL                                                                             
 .LONG TERM (FRI THRU WED)...                                                   
 FRI THRU SAT NGT...                                                            
 SHRTWV TROF WILL BE DROPPING DOWN INTO THE UPR MS VLY/WRN GREAT                
 LAKES AT THE START OF THE PERIOD WITH MORE ENERGY ROUNDING THE BASE            
 OF THE UPR LEVEL BROAD TROF TOWARD THE LOWER MS VLY. THIS ELONGATED            
 AXIS OF HIER VORTICITY BECOMES INCREASINGLY SHEARED AS IT MOVES THRU           
 OUR FA FRI WITH AFOREMENTIONED SHRTWV MOVG WELL TO OUR NORTH...ACRS            
 THE GREAT LAKES. AFTERWARD...WE REMAIN IN A BROAD TROF THRU THE END            
 OF THE PERIOD WITH ANOTHER IMPLSE APPROACHING OUR FA SAT NIGHT.                
 ASSOCIATED CDFNT WILL MOVE THRU FRI...WITH A RIDGE OF HI PRES IN ITS           
 WAKE FOR FRI NIGHT AND MUCH OF SAT. WILL CONTINUE CHC POPS FOR LIGHT           
 SNOW PRECEDING FRONT...MAINLY IN THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY.                    
 A REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR...ASSOCIATED WITH AFOREMENTIONED                
 IMPULSE...WILL LIKELY MOVE THRU OUR FA SAT NIGHT. WILL DOWNPLAY                
 THE NAM/WRF DEEPER MOISTURE PRECEDING AND WITH FRONT AND CONT A                
 PARTLY CLOUDY FCST...CLOSER TO THE GFS.                                        
 11                                                                             
 SUN THRU WED...                                                                
 VERY COLD AND MAINLY DRY THRU THIS PERIOD.                                     
 BROAD UPR LEVEL TROF WILL RESIDE ACRS THE OH VLY THRU LATE MON WITH            
 AXIS SHIFTING INTO NEW ENGLAND TUE AND OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST               
 WED. AFTER AXIS PASSAGE MON...OUR REGION WILL BE IN COLD NW FLO                
 THRU THE END OF THE PERIOD. 00Z MEDIUM RANGE MODELS AND 12Z GFS                
 ARE SIMILAR WITH SHOWING A FAST MOVG CLIPPER SYS/WEAK SFC LO                   
 MOVING INTO THE LOWER OH VLY SUN NGT AND EXITING MON MORNING. THIS             
 APPEARS TO BE OUR BEST CHC FOR A MEASURABLE SNOW DURING THIS                   
 PERIOD WITH POSSIBLY A 1 TO 3 INCH DRY FLUFFY SNOW ACRS OUR                    
 FORECAST AREA(FA)...MOSTLY OVER OUR NRN/ERN FA. TEMPS WILL BE                  
 UNSEASONALLY COLD...ESPECIALLY AFTER CLIPPER PASSAGE MON WITH                  
 SINGLE DIGIT READINGS MON AND TUE NGT AS ARCTIC HI PRES BUILDS                 
 INTO AND OVER THE LOWER OH VLY.                                                
 AFTER POPULATING WITH HPC GRIDS FOR TUE AND WED...WILL MAKE THE                
 FOLLOWING CHGS TO TEMP GRIDS. WILL RAISE SUN NGT MINS CONSIDERABLY             
 TO ACCOUNT FOR INCREASING CLOUDS/A BRIEF PERIOD OF WARM ADVECTION              
 AHEAD OF CLIPPER. WILL RAISE MAXS MON A FEW DEGREES CLOSER TO                  
 ENSEMBLE MEANS AND HPC AND TO AGREE BETTER WITH OUR NEIGHBORS.                 
 IF WE GET AN INCH OR TWO OF SNOW COVER BEFORE THIS PERIOD AND ON SUN           
 NGT AS WELL...THESE TEMPS WILL NEED TO BE ADJUSTED DOWN...IN OTHER             
 WORDS...BELOW ZERO FOR MINS BEGINNING MON NGT.                                 
 DK                                                                             
 &&                                                                             
 .AVIATION (18Z TAFS)...                                                        
 VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE SDF...LEX AND BWG TAF SITES               
 THROUGH THE FIRST SIX HOURS OF THIS TAF FORECAST. HIGH PRESSURE                
 OVERHEAD WILL KEEP MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT VARIABLE TO              
 SOUTH WINDS...5 TO 10 MPH.                                                     
 MID-LEVEL DECK WILL FILTER IN FROM THE WEST FROM 21-00Z THIS                   
 EVENING. CIGS SHOULD STAY VFR UNTIL 06Z FOR BWG...AND BY 10Z AND 12Z           
 FOR SDF AND LEX RESPECTIVELY...WHERE LIGHT SNOW MAY REDUCE VISBYS              
 DOWN TO ONE MILE OR SO AT TIMES. ONSET OF -SN WILL BE LIGHT DUE TO             
 LOWER LEVELS NOT BEING FULLY SATURATED. MAY CARRY A TEMPO FOR                  
 HEAVIER SNOW FOR THE BWG TAF ROUGHLY FROM 10-14Z. ONCE SNOW                    
 BEGINS...MAY TREND TOWARD LOWER END MVFR CIGS AND IFR VISBYS WITH              
 THE HEAVIER SNOW SOMETIME BETWEEN 12-18Z FOR ALL TAF SITES.                    
 AL                                                                             
 &&                                                                             
 .LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                            
 KY...SNOW ADVISORY FROM 5 AM EST /4 AM CST/ TO 1 PM EST /12 PM CST/            
      THURSDAY FOR KYZ062>066-070>078-081-082.                                  
 IN...NONE.                                                                     
 &&                                                                             
 $$                                                                             
</pre> ky                                                                       

 AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                       
 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY                                         
 624 PM EST WED JAN 31 2007                                                     
 .AVIATION DISCUSSION (00Z) FCSTS...                                            
 GENERAL AC CIGS 10 THSD OR ABOVE TO START OUT TAFS...WITH GRADUAL              
 INCREASE IN LOW AND MID LEVEL RH DURING THE NIGHT WHICH WILL                   
 EVENTUALLY LEAD TO SOME LIGHT SNOW...RIGHT NOW IT LOOKS AS THOUGH              
 THE MAIN BAND OF LIGHT SNOW WILL BE ACROSS SRN KY...SO WILL                    
 EVENTUALLY LOWER CIG AND VSBY CONDITIONS TO IFR FOR BWG AND MVFR FOR           
 LEX AND SDF. STILL SOME DOUBT ABOUT HOW MUCH SNOW WE WILL GET. WE              
 WILL HAVE TO CONTINUE TO MONITOR WX AND MODEL TRENDS CLOSELY. --21             
 .SHORT TERM...                                                                 
 (TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)...                                            
 ...SNOW ADVISORY ACROSS SOUTHERN KY AND SOUTHERN BLUEGRASS...                  
 SHORT-TERM FORECAST REVOLVES AROUND SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEMS AND SNOW           
 ACCUMULATION CHANCES WITH EACH.                                                
 TONIGHT-MIDDAY THURS...                                                        
 HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST TONIGHT...AS AN               
 INVERTED TROUGH OVER THE GULF MOVES FROM TEXAS TOWARD THE CAROLINAS.           
 MOISTURE IS NOT TOO IMPRESSIVE WITH THIS SYSTEM...HOWEVER THE                  
 DYNAMICS ARE STRONG. SOUTHERN JET OF ROUGHLY 150 KTS OR SO WILL BE             
 OVERHEAD...WITH THE CWA UNDER THE LEFT-EXIT REGION AFTER MIDNIGHT.             
 AMPLE LIFT WILL THUS HELP SNOW DEVELOP AFTER MIDNIGHT TOWARD                   
 MORNING. AREA SOUNDINGS INDICATE THE BEST CHANCE OF SNOW WILL BE               
 BETWEEN 10-17Z. SOME HEAVIER SNOW MAY MIX IN AT TIMES GIVEN UPSTREAM           
 REPORTS AND PROGGED -EPV ALOFT CO-LOCATED WITH MAX OMEGAS. BUT GIVEN           
 THE LACK OF MOISTURE AND SPEED OF SYSTEM...WILL NOT GET CARRIED AWAY           
 WITH SNOW AMOUNTS. THUS...WILL ISSUE A SNOW ADVSY FROM 1-2 INCHES              
 POSSIBLE MAINLY SE OF A LINE FROM MORGANTOWN TO LEBANON. MAY BE A              
 BIT TOO FAR NORTH WITH THE ADVY GIVEN THE NAM 18Z RUN...BUT 12Z                
 GFS/NAM AND HPC INDICATE FAR SRN KY COULD GET THESE ACCUMULATING               
 SNOWS. THE BIGGER PROBLEM WILL BE TIMING NOT THE ACTUAL ACCUMS. GIVEN          
 TIME OF DAY (NEAR MORNING COMMUTE TIME) FELT IT WAS WORTH BUMPING              
 UP THE SPS TO AN ADVSY. WILL KEEP THE HIGHER SNOW AMOUNTS ACROSS               
 THE FAR SERN CWA.                                                              
 ELSEWHERE...WILL CONTINUE SPS FOR AROUND AN INCH OF ACCUMULATION.              
 FEEL THAT THE THREAT IS MINIMIZED ACROSS CENTRAL KY...HOWEVER A                
 BETTER CHANCE MAY EXIST NEAR THE OHIO RIVER WITH THE DEFORMATION               
 ZONE DEVELOPING FROM KC TO WICHITA. THIS SHOULD ALIGN SOMEWHERE                
 ACROSS OUR NRN CWA...POSSIBLY NEAR THE KY/IN BORDER. SNOWFALL                  
 AMOUNTS WITHIN THE SPS AREA WILL BE HIGHER IN THE DEFORMATION                  
 ZONE...BUT IT IS STILL EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT SNOW ONLY.                         
 MAIN PRECIP WILL END BY MIDDAY (ADVY ENDS AT 18Z)...THOUGH LOW                 
 CLOUDS MAY CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. WITH THIS...EVEN A FEW              
 LIGHT SHOWERS/FLURRIES MAY CONTINUE INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. SFC              
 TEMPS MAY INCREASE ENOUGH ACROSS THE SOUTH WHERE A CHANGEOVER TO               
 LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE MAY OCCUR. HAVE A RAIN/SNOW MIX ACROSS THE                  
 SOUTH FOR NOW.                                                                 
 MIDDAY THURS-OVERNIGHT THURS...                                                
 SECOND WAVE IN SOUTHERN STREAM WILL QUICKLY MOVE TOWARD THE EAST               
 COAST RIGHT ON THE HEELS OF THE FIRST SYSTEM. THIS SYSTEM IS MORE OF           
 A CLOSED SFC LOW AS OPPOSED TO A SFC TROUGH...AND IS COMBINED WITH             
 EVEN STRONGER DYNAMICS ALOFT. HOWEVER MOISTURE IS EVEN MORE                    
 LACKING...BUT THE DYNAMICS ARE THERE FOR YET ANOTHER POSSIBLE                  
 ADVSY SITUATION THRS NIGHT-FRI MORN. WILL LOOK MORE AT IT TONIGHT              
 AND TOMORROW MORNING...BUT WILL HIT IT HARD IN THE HWO. THIS                   
 LATTER SYSTEM WOULD BE MORE OF A CWA-WIDE EVENT TOO. WILL CONTINUE             
 WITH ONE-INCH ACCUMS FOR NOW.                                                  
 AS FAR AS TEMPS GO THROUGH THE PERIOD...WILL ONLY DROP ABOUT 5                 
 DEGREES TONIGHT BEFORE CLOUDS INCREASE OVERNIGHT AND KEEP OUR TEMPS            
 STEADY. TOMORROW...WILL LIKELY HEAT UP...ESPECIALLY IN THE                     
 AFTERNOON. HOWEVER WILL UNDERCUT RUC13/GFS AS I FEEL THESE ARE                 
 RUNNING A BIT TOO HIGH. LOW TO MID 30S LOOK LIKELY FOR HIGHS THURS.            
 AL                                                                             
 .LONG TERM (FRI THRU WED)...                                                   
 FRI THRU SAT NGT...                                                            
 SHRTWV TROF WILL BE DROPPING DOWN INTO THE UPR MS VLY/WRN GREAT                
 LAKES AT THE START OF THE PERIOD WITH MORE ENERGY ROUNDING THE BASE            
 OF THE UPR LEVEL BROAD TROF TOWARD THE LOWER MS VLY. THIS ELONGATED            
 AXIS OF HIER VORTICITY BECOMES INCREASINGLY SHEARED AS IT MOVES THRU           
 OUR FA FRI WITH AFOREMENTIONED SHRTWV MOVG WELL TO OUR NORTH...ACRS            
 THE GREAT LAKES. AFTERWARD...WE REMAIN IN A BROAD TROF THRU THE END            
 OF THE PERIOD WITH ANOTHER IMPLSE APPROACHING OUR FA SAT NIGHT.                
 ASSOCIATED CDFNT WILL MOVE THRU FRI...WITH A RIDGE OF HI PRES IN ITS           
 WAKE FOR FRI NIGHT AND MUCH OF SAT. WILL CONTINUE CHC POPS FOR LIGHT           
 SNOW PRECEDING FRONT...MAINLY IN THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY.                    
 A REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR...ASSOCIATED WITH AFOREMENTIONED                
 IMPULSE...WILL LIKELY MOVE THRU OUR FA SAT NIGHT. WILL DOWNPLAY                
 THE NAM/WRF DEEPER MOISTURE PRECEDING AND WITH FRONT AND CONT A                
 PARTLY CLOUDY FCST...CLOSER TO THE GFS.                                        
 11                                                                             
 SUN THRU WED...                                                                
 VERY COLD AND MAINLY DRY THRU THIS PERIOD.                                     
 BROAD UPR LEVEL TROF WILL RESIDE ACRS THE OH VLY THRU LATE MON WITH            
 AXIS SHIFTING INTO NEW ENGLAND TUE AND OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST               
 WED. AFTER AXIS PASSAGE MON...OUR REGION WILL BE IN COLD NW FLO                
 THRU THE END OF THE PERIOD. 00Z MEDIUM RANGE MODELS AND 12Z GFS                
 ARE SIMILAR WITH SHOWING A FAST MOVG CLIPPER SYS/WEAK SFC LO                   
 MOVING INTO THE LOWER OH VLY SUN NGT AND EXITING MON MORNING. THIS             
 APPEARS TO BE OUR BEST CHC FOR A MEASURABLE SNOW DURING THIS                   
 PERIOD WITH POSSIBLY A 1 TO 3 INCH DRY FLUFFY SNOW ACRS OUR                    
 FORECAST AREA(FA)...MOSTLY OVER OUR NRN/ERN FA. TEMPS WILL BE                  
 UNSEASONALLY COLD...ESPECIALLY AFTER CLIPPER PASSAGE MON WITH                  
 SINGLE DIGIT READINGS MON AND TUE NGT AS ARCTIC HI PRES BUILDS                 
 INTO AND OVER THE LOWER OH VLY.                                                
 AFTER POPULATING WITH HPC GRIDS FOR TUE AND WED...WILL MAKE THE                
 FOLLOWING CHGS TO TEMP GRIDS. WILL RAISE SUN NGT MINS CONSIDERABLY             
 TO ACCOUNT FOR INCREASING CLOUDS/A BRIEF PERIOD OF WARM ADVECTION              
 AHEAD OF CLIPPER. WILL RAISE MAXS MON A FEW DEGREES CLOSER TO                  
 ENSEMBLE MEANS AND HPC AND TO AGREE BETTER WITH OUR NEIGHBORS.                 
 IF WE GET AN INCH OR TWO OF SNOW COVER BEFORE THIS PERIOD AND ON SUN           
 NGT AS WELL...THESE TEMPS WILL NEED TO BE ADJUSTED DOWN...IN OTHER             
 WORDS...BELOW ZERO FOR MINS BEGINNING MON NGT.                                 
 DK                                                                             
 &&                                                                             
 .AVIATION (18Z TAFS)...                                                        
 VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE SDF...LEX AND BWG TAF SITES               
 THROUGH THE FIRST SIX HOURS OF THIS TAF FORECAST. HIGH PRESSURE                
 OVERHEAD WILL KEEP MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT VARIABLE TO              
 SOUTH WINDS...5 TO 10 MPH.                                                     
 MID-LEVEL DECK WILL FILTER IN FROM THE WEST FROM 21-00Z THIS                   
 EVENING. CIGS SHOULD STAY VFR UNTIL 06Z FOR BWG...AND BY 10Z AND 12Z           
 FOR SDF AND LEX RESPECTIVELY...WHERE LIGHT SNOW MAY REDUCE VISBYS              
 DOWN TO ONE MILE OR SO AT TIMES. ONSET OF -SN WILL BE LIGHT DUE TO             
 LOWER LEVELS NOT BEING FULLY SATURATED. MAY CARRY A TEMPO FOR                  
 HEAVIER SNOW FOR THE BWG TAF ROUGHLY FROM 10-14Z. ONCE SNOW                    
 BEGINS...MAY TREND TOWARD LOWER END MVFR CIGS AND IFR VISBYS WITH              
 THE HEAVIER SNOW SOMETIME BETWEEN 12-18Z FOR ALL TAF SITES.                    
 AL                                                                             
 &&                                                                             
 .LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                            
 KY...SNOW ADVISORY FROM 5 AM EST /4 AM CST/ TO 1 PM EST /12 PM CST/            
      THURSDAY FOR KYZ062>066-070>078-081-082.                                  
 IN...NONE.                                                                     
 &&                                                                             
 $$                                                                             
</pre> ky                                                                       

 AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                       
 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY                                         
 324 PM EST WED JAN 31 2007                                                     
 .SHORT TERM...                                                                 
 (TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)...                                            
 ...SNOW ADVISORY ACROSS SOUTHERN KY AND SOUTHERN BLUEGRASS...                  
 SHORT-TERM FORECAST REVOLVES AROUND SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEMS AND SNOW           
 ACCUMULATION CHANCES WITH EACH.                                                
 TONIGHT-MIDDAY THURS...                                                        
 HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST TONIGHT...AS AN               
 INVERTED TROUGH OVER THE GULF MOVES FROM TEXAS TOWARD THE CAROLINAS.           
 MOISTURE IS NOT TOO IMPRESSIVE WITH THIS SYSTEM...HOWEVER THE                  
 DYNAMICS ARE STRONG. SOUTHERN JET OF ROUGHLY 150 KTS OR SO WILL BE             
 OVERHEAD...WITH THE CWA UNDER THE LEFT-EXIT REGION AFTER MIDNIGHT.             
 AMPLE LIFT WILL THUS HELP SNOW DEVELOP AFTER MIDNIGHT TOWARD                   
 MORNING. AREA SOUNDINGS INDICATE THE BEST CHANCE OF SNOW WILL BE               
 BETWEEN 10-17Z. SOME HEAVIER SNOW MAY MIX IN AT TIMES GIVEN UPSTREAM           
 REPORTS AND PROGGED -EPV ALOFT CO-LOCATED WITH MAX OMEGAS. BUT GIVEN           
 THE LACK OF MOISTURE AND SPEED OF SYSTEM...WILL NOT GET CARRIED AWAY           
 WITH SNOW AMOUNTS. THUS...WILL ISSUE A SNOW ADVSY FROM 1-2 INCHES              
 POSSIBLE MAINLY SE OF A LINE FROM MORGANTOWN TO LEBANON. MAY BE A              
 BIT TOO FAR NORTH WITH THE ADVY GIVEN THE NAM 18Z RUN...BUT 12Z                
 GFS/NAM AND HPC INDICATE FAR SRN KY COULD GET THESE ACCUMULATING               
 SNOWS. THE BIGGER PROBLEM WILL BE TIMING NOT THE ACTUAL ACCUMS. GIVEN          
 TIME OF DAY (NEAR MORNING COMMUTE TIME) FELT IT WAS WORTH BUMPING              
 UP THE SPS TO AN ADVSY. WILL KEEP THE HIGHER SNOW AMOUNTS ACROSS               
 THE FAR SERN CWA.                                                              
 ELSEWHERE...WILL CONTINUE SPS FOR AROUND AN INCH OF ACCUMULATION.              
 FEEL THAT THE THREAT IS MINIMIZED ACROSS CENTRAL KY...HOWEVER A                
 BETTER CHANCE MAY EXIST NEAR THE OHIO RIVER WITH THE DEFORMATION               
 ZONE DEVELOPING FROM KC TO WICHITA. THIS SHOULD ALIGN SOMEWHERE                
 ACROSS OUR NRN CWA...POSSIBLY NEAR THE KY/IN BORDER. SNOWFALL                  
 AMOUNTS WITHIN THE SPS AREA WILL BE HIGHER IN THE DEFORMATION                  
 ZONE...BUT IT IS STILL EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT SNOW ONLY.                         
 MAIN PRECIP WILL END BY MIDDAY (ADVY ENDS AT 18Z)...THOUGH LOW                 
 CLOUDS MAY CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. WITH THIS...EVEN A FEW              
 LIGHT SHOWERS/FLURRIES MAY CONTINUE INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. SFC              
 TEMPS MAY INCREASE ENOUGH ACROSS THE SOUTH WHERE A CHANGEOVER TO               
 LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE MAY OCCUR. HAVE A RAIN/SNOW MIX ACROSS THE                  
 SOUTH FOR NOW.                                                                 
 MIDDAY THURS-OVERNIGHT THURS...                                                
 SECOND WAVE IN SOUTHERN STREAM WILL QUICKLY MOVE TOWARD THE EAST               
 COAST RIGHT ON THE HEELS OF THE FIRST SYSTEM. THIS SYSTEM IS MORE OF           
 A CLOSED SFC LOW AS OPPOSED TO A SFC TROUGH...AND IS COMBINED WITH             
 EVEN STRONGER DYNAMICS ALOFT. HOWEVER MOISTURE IS EVEN MORE                    
 LACKING...BUT THE DYNAMICS ARE THERE FOR YET ANOTHER POSSIBLE                  
 ADVSY SITUATION THRS NIGHT-FRI MORN. WILL LOOK MORE AT IT TONIGHT              
 AND TOMORROW MORNING...BUT WILL HIT IT HARD IN THE HWO. THIS                   
 LATTER SYSTEM WOULD BE MORE OF A CWA-WIDE EVENT TOO. WILL CONTINUE             
 WITH ONE-INCH ACCUMS FOR NOW.                                                  
 AS FAR AS TEMPS GO THROUGH THE PERIOD...WILL ONLY DROP ABOUT 5                 
 DEGREES TONIGHT BEFORE CLOUDS INCREASE OVERNIGHT AND KEEP OUR TEMPS            
 STEADY. TOMORROW...WILL LIKELY HEAT UP...ESPECIALLY IN THE                     
 AFTERNOON. HOWEVER WILL UNDERCUT RUC13/GFS AS I FEEL THESE ARE                 
 RUNNING A BIT TOO HIGH. LOW TO MID 30S LOOK LIKELY FOR HIGHS THURS.            
 AL                                                                             
 .LONG TERM (FRI THRU WED)...                                                   
 FRI THRU SAT NGT...                                                            
 SHRTWV TROF WILL BE DROPPING DOWN INTO THE UPR MS VLY/WRN GREAT                
 LAKES AT THE START OF THE PERIOD WITH MORE ENERGY ROUNDING THE BASE            
 OF THE UPR LEVEL BROAD TROF TOWARD THE LOWER MS VLY. THIS ELONGATED            
 AXIS OF HIER VORTICITY BECOMES INCREASINGLY SHEARED AS IT MOVES THRU           
 OUR FA FRI WITH AFOREMENTIONED SHRTWV MOVG WELL TO OUR NORTH...ACRS            
 THE GREAT LAKES. AFTERWARD...WE REMAIN IN A BROAD TROF THRU THE END            
 OF THE PERIOD WITH ANOTHER IMPLSE APPROACHING OUR FA SAT NIGHT.                
 ASSOCIATED CDFNT WILL MOVE THRU FRI...WITH A RIDGE OF HI PRES IN ITS           
 WAKE FOR FRI NIGHT AND MUCH OF SAT. WILL CONTINUE CHC POPS FOR LIGHT           
 SNOW PRECEDING FRONT...MAINLY IN THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY.                    
 A REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR...ASSOCIATED WITH AFOREMENTIONED                
 IMPULSE...WILL LIKELY MOVE THRU OUR FA SAT NIGHT. WILL DOWNPLAY                
 THE NAM/WRF DEEPER MOISTURE PRECEDING AND WITH FRONT AND CONT A                
 PARTLY CLOUDY FCST...CLOSER TO THE GFS.                                        
 11                                                                             
 SUN THRU WED...                                                                
 VERY COLD AND MAINLY DRY THRU THIS PERIOD.                                     
 BROAD UPR LEVEL TROF WILL RESIDE ACRS THE OH VLY THRU LATE MON WITH            
 AXIS SHIFTING INTO NEW ENGLAND TUE AND OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST               
 WED. AFTER AXIS PASSAGE MON...OUR REGION WILL BE IN COLD NW FLO                
 THRU THE END OF THE PERIOD. 00Z MEDIUM RANGE MODELS AND 12Z GFS                
 ARE SIMILAR WITH SHOWING A FAST MOVG CLIPPER SYS/WEAK SFC LO                   
 MOVING INTO THE LOWER OH VLY SUN NGT AND EXITING MON MORNING. THIS             
 APPEARS TO BE OUR BEST CHC FOR A MEASURABLE SNOW DURING THIS                   
 PERIOD WITH POSSIBLY A 1 TO 3 INCH DRY FLUFFY SNOW ACRS OUR                    
 FORECAST AREA(FA)...MOSTLY OVER OUR NRN/ERN FA. TEMPS WILL BE                  
 UNSEASONALLY COLD...ESPECIALLY AFTER CLIPPER PASSAGE MON WITH                  
 SINGLE DIGIT READINGS MON AND TUE NGT AS ARCTIC HI PRES BUILDS                 
 INTO AND OVER THE LOWER OH VLY.                                                
 AFTER POPULATING WITH HPC GRIDS FOR TUE AND WED...WILL MAKE THE                
 FOLLOWING CHGS TO TEMP GRIDS. WILL RAISE SUN NGT MINS CONSIDERABLY             
 TO ACCOUNT FOR INCREASING CLOUDS/A BRIEF PERIOD OF WARM ADVECTION              
 AHEAD OF CLIPPER. WILL RAISE MAXS MON A FEW DEGREES CLOSER TO                  
 ENSEMBLE MEANS AND HPC AND TO AGREE BETTER WITH OUR NEIGHBORS.                 
 IF WE GET AN INCH OR TWO OF SNOW COVER BEFORE THIS PERIOD AND ON SUN           
 NGT AS WELL...THESE TEMPS WILL NEED TO BE ADJUSTED DOWN...IN OTHER             
 WORDS...BELOW ZERO FOR MINS BEGINNING MON NGT.                                 
 DK                                                                             
 &&                                                                             
 .AVIATION (18Z TAFS)...                                                        
 VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE SDF...LEX AND BWG TAF SITES               
 THROUGH THE FIRST SIX HOURS OF THIS TAF FORECAST. HIGH PRESSURE                
 OVERHEAD WILL KEEP MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT VARIABLE TO              
 SOUTH WINDS...5 TO 10 MPH.                                                     
 MID-LEVEL DECK WILL FILTER IN FROM THE WEST FROM 21-00Z THIS                   
 EVENING. CIGS SHOULD STAY VFR UNTIL 06Z FOR BWG...AND BY 10Z AND 12Z           
 FOR SDF AND LEX RESPECTIVELY...WHERE LIGHT SNOW MAY REDUCE VISBYS              
 DOWN TO ONE MILE OR SO AT TIMES. ONSET OF -SN WILL BE LIGHT DUE TO             
 LOWER LEVELS NOT BEING FULLY SATURATED. MAY CARRY A TEMPO FOR                  
 HEAVIER SNOW FOR THE BWG TAF ROUGHLY FROM 10-14Z. ONCE SNOW                    
 BEGINS...MAY TREND TOWARD LOWER END MVFR CIGS AND IFR VISBYS WITH              
 THE HEAVIER SNOW SOMETIME BETWEEN 12-18Z FOR ALL TAF SITES.                    
 AL                                                                             
 &&                                                                             
 .LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                            
 KY...SNOW ADVISORY FROM 5 AM EST /4 AM CST/ TO 1 PM EST /12 PM CST/            
      THURSDAY FOR KYZ062>066-070>078-081-082.                                  
 IN...NONE.                                                                     
 &&                                                                             
 $$                                                                             
</pre> ky                                                                       

 AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                       
 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY                                         
 1107 AM EST WED JAN 31 2007                                                    
 .MORNING UPDATE...                                                             
 DOING A QUICK UPDATE TO REMOVE MORNING WORDING. LOWERED HIGH TEMPS             
 A FEW DEGREES TODAY AS HOURLIES WERE RUNNING A BIT COOLER THAN                 
 WHAT THE GRIDS REFLECTED.                                                      
 SHOULD BE MOSTLY SUNNY AND TEMPS WILL WARM UP TO THE MID AND UPPER             
 20S...WITH NEAR FREEZING TEMPS ACROSS SRN KY UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.              
 SINCE THE WINDS ARE LIGHT...WIND CHILLS NOT A FACTOR TODAY DESPITE             
 IT BEING COLD.                                                                 
 CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE LATER THIS AFTERNOON...WITH MID TO              
 UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS FILTERING IN DOWNSTREAM OF GULF COAST SYSTEM.               
 UPDATE OUT SHORTLY.                                                            
 AL                                                                             
 &&                                                                             
 .PREV DISCUSSION...                                                            
 SHORT TERM (TODAY-FRIDAY)...                                                   
 TODAY...                                                                       
 SCT STRATOCU CURRENTLY FROM NEAR CVG TO SDF TO OWB FCST TO SLIDE ESE           
 THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. A COUPLE FLURRIES NOT OUT OF THE              
 QUESTION ASSOC WITH THESE CLOUDS. MOST OF THE CWA WILL START OFF               
 PARTLY CLOUDY BEFORE DAWN...BUT QUICKLY GO SUNNY THIS MORNING. TEMPS           
 WILL BE QUITE COLD...MOST LOCATIONS IN THE LOWER TEENS TO UPPER                
 SINGLE DIGITS. HOWEVER HIGH PRES MOVING INTO THE AREA WILL RESULT IN           
 LIGHT WESTERLY WINDS...SO WIND CHILLS WILL NOT BE A SIGNIFICANT                
 PROBLEM. THERE IS AN APPRECIABLE SPREAD IN THE MOS GUIDANCE FOR HIGH           
 TEMPS TODAY...BIGGEST AT LEX WHERE NAM-MOS SHOWS 27 WHILE GFS-MOS              
 PREDICTS A HIGH OF 35! NGM NUMBERS ARE CLOSER TO COOLER NAM-MOS. A             
 BLEND OF RAW GFS/NAM DATA YIELD HIGHS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 20S FAR           
 NORTHEAST TO THE MIDDLE 30S IN THE SOUTHWEST...AND THIS SEEMS                  
 REASONABLE.                                                                    
 CS                                                                             
 TONIGHT-FRIDAY...                                                              
 THE TIMING AND AMOUNTS OF WINTERY PRECIP ARE THE MAIN CONCERNS FOR             
 LATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.                                           
 UPPER AIR PATTERN WILL HAVE A BROAD POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH                   
 CENTERED ACROSS THE ROCKIES...WITH ZONAL FLOW DOWNSTREAM ACROSS THE            
 SOUTHERN STATES. WITH THIS PATTERN...ANY UPPER AIR DISTURBANCES WILL           
 BE QUITE SHEARED IN A CONFLUENT UPPER PATTERN ACROSS THE LOWER OHIO            
 VALLEY. ONE THING TO NOTE IS A SHARPENING JET STREAK THAT WILL                 
 DEVELOP AND MOVE ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY EARLY THURSDAY. LIFT              
 ASSOCIATED WITH THE LEFT FRONT QUADRANT OF THIS JET WILL MOVE ACROSS           
 THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY AND PROVIDE A CHANCE OF SNOW BEGINNING EARLY             
 THURSDAY.                                                                      
 AT THE SURFACE...ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC           
 SEABOARD EARLY THURSDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW SOUTHWESTERLY MID LEVEL               
 FLOW TO RESUME ABOVE COLDER AIR IN PLACE WITHIN THE BOUNDARY LAYER.            
 MAIN AXIS OF MOISTURE WILL REMAIN SOUTH...WHERE PLENTY OF RAIN IS              
 EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF STATES ASSOCIATED WITH AN ELEVATED           
 WARM FRONT. FARTHER NORTH...LIFT WILL OCCUR WITH MUCH LESS MOISTURE            
 AVAILABLE AND WILL BE A RESULT OF UPPER AIR DYNAMICS.                          
 BOTH ETA AND GFS HINT AT POSSIBLY TWO SEPARATE EPISODES OF WINTERY             
 PRECIPITATION. THE FIRST WILL MOVE ACROSS OUR CWA EARLY                        
 THURSDAY...AND THE SECOND...LATE THURSDAY AND EARLY FRIDAY. FORECAST           
 SOUNDINGS SHOW BASICALLY ALL OF CENTRAL KENTUCKY COLD ENOUGH FOR ALL           
 SNOW WITH THIS FIRST EPISODE. MOISTURE WILL BE SCANT...BUT WITH                
 RAIN/SNOW RATIOS GREATER THAN 10 TO 1 SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS...              
 PERHAPS AN INCH OR TWO...LOOK LIKELY. INITIALLY...VERY DRY LOW                 
 LEVEL AIR WILL BE IN PLACE EARLY THURSDAY...THIS I THINK WILL HELP             
 KEEP PRECIP ALL SNOW AT THE BEGINNING...BUT ALSO MAY DELAY THE                 
 ONSET...WHICH SHOULD BE DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS.                             
 BY LATE THURSDAY...A WEAK UPPER AIR DISTURBANCE IS FORECAST BY BOTH            
 THE NAM AND THE GFS TO MOVE ACROSS OUR REGION. A SECOND ROUND OF               
 LIGHT PRECIP WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS...BUT WARMER BOUNDARY                
 LAYER TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF KENTUCKY MAY ALLOW             
 SOME RAIN TO MIX IN WITH THE SNOW. ANY SNOW AMOUNTS WITH THIS WILL             
 BE LIGHT AS WELL...WITH SNOW ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLY APPROACHING ONE            
 INCH. WIND WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS A SURFACE                
 TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. COLDER AIR WILL ARRIVE FRIDAY             
 AFTERNOON AS FLURRIES WILL BE ENDING.                                          
 TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY                      
 MORNING...WITH HIGHS AS WARM AS THE MID 30S THURSDAY AFTERNOON                 
 ACROSS THE SOUTH.                                                              
 JSD                                                                            
 LONG TERM (SATURDAY-TUESDAY)...                                                
 DEEP POLAR VORTEX JUST SOUTHWEST OF HUDSON`S BAY WILL KEEP VERY COLD           
 AIR LOCKED IN PLACE ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST AND THE GREAT LAKES.              
 COLD AIR WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY AS HIGH                   
 PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. FRIGID AIR WILL ARRIVE LATE           
 SATURDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY TWO ARCTIC FRONTS ARE FORECAST           
 TO MOVE THROUGH KENTUCKY...ONE LATE SATURDAY AND THE SECOND ONE                
 EARLY MONDAY. IT`S POSSIBLE THAT MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL HAVE THE              
 COLDEST TEMPERATURES SINCE LATE DECEMBER 2004.                                 
 JSD                                                                            
 AVIATION (12Z TAFS)...                                                         
 BAND OF STRATOCU HAS BEEN PERSISTENT...CURRENTLY POSITIONED FROM               
 NEAR SDF TO LEX. BASED ON SATELLITE TRENDS AND LATEST RUC RH                   
 FIELDS...EXPECT CLOUDS TO PROGRESS OFF TO THE ESE AFFECTING THE SDF            
 TAF SITE THROUGH 12-13Z...LEX THROUGH 14Z. CIGS ARE NOT TOO LOW...             
 AROUND 2.5KFT. A FEW FLURRIES POSSIBLE WITHIN THIS BAND OF CLOUDS              
 BUT VSBYS WILL BE UNRESTRICTED. VFR/SKC FROM MID MORNING INTO THE              
 AFTN HOURS AT ALL TAF SITES. MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS FCST TO MOVE INTO           
 THE REGION TOWARD 21Z...WITH CIGS DROPPING BELOW 10KFT AFTER 0Z.               
 BASED ON LATEST NAM BUFKIT DATA...WILL INTRODUCE -SN AFTER 6Z FROM             
 SW TO NE...BUT WILL KEEP CIGS AOA 2KFT THROUGH 12Z/THU.                        
 CS                                                                             
 &&                                                                             
 .LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                            
 KY...NONE.                                                                     
 IN...NONE.                                                                     
 &&                                                                             
 $$                                                                             
</pre> ky                                                                       

 AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                       
 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY                                         
 605 AM EST WED JAN 31 2007                                                     
 .AVIATION (12Z TAFS)...                                                        
 BAND OF STRATOCU HAS BEEN PERSISTENT...CURRENTLY POSITIONED FROM               
 NEAR SDF TO LEX. BASED ON SATELLITE TRENDS AND LATEST RUC RH                   
 FIELDS...EXPECT CLOUDS TO PROGRESS OFF TO THE ESE AFFECTING THE SDF            
 TAF SITE THROUGH 12-13Z...LEX THROUGH 14Z. CIGS ARE NOT TOO LOW...             
 AROUND 2.5KFT. A FEW FLURRIES POSSIBLE WITHIN THIS BAND OF CLOUDS              
 BUT VSBYS WILL BE UNRESTRICTED. VFR/SKC FROM MID MORNING INTO THE              
 AFTN HOURS AT ALL TAF SITES. MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS FCST TO MOVE INTO           
 THE REGION TOWARD 21Z...WITH CIGS DROPPING BELOW 10KFT AFTER 0Z.               
 BASED ON LATEST NAM BUFKIT DATA...WILL INTRODUCE -SN AFTER 6Z FROM             
 SW TO NE...BUT WILL KEEP CIGS AOA 2KFT THROUGH 12Z/THU.                        
 CS                                                                             
 .SHORT TERM (TODAY-FRIDAY)...                                                  
 TODAY...                                                                       
 SCT STRATOCU CURRENTLY FROM NEAR CVG TO SDF TO OWB FCST TO SLIDE ESE           
 THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. A COUPLE FLURRIES NOT OUT OF THE              
 QUESTION ASSOC WITH THESE CLOUDS. MOST OF THE CWA WILL START OFF               
 PARTLY CLOUDY BEFORE DAWN...BUT QUICKLY GO SUNNY THIS MORNING. TEMPS           
 WILL BE QUITE COLD...MOST LOCATIONS IN THE LOWER TEENS TO UPPER                
 SINGLE DIGITS. HOWEVER HIGH PRES MOVING INTO THE AREA WILL RESULT IN           
 LIGHT WESTERLY WINDS...SO WIND CHILLS WILL NOT BE A SIGNIFICANT                
 PROBLEM. THERE IS AN APPRECIABLE SPREAD IN THE MOS GUIDANCE FOR HIGH           
 TEMPS TODAY...BIGGEST AT LEX WHERE NAM-MOS SHOWS 27 WHILE GFS-MOS              
 PREDICTS A HIGH OF 35! NGM NUMBERS ARE CLOSER TO COOLER NAM-MOS. A             
 BLEND OF RAW GFS/NAM DATA YIELD HIGHS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 20S FAR           
 NORTHEAST TO THE MIDDLE 30S IN THE SOUTHWEST...AND THIS SEEMS                  
 REASONABLE.                                                                    
 CS                                                                             
 TONIGHT-FRIDAY...                                                              
 THE TIMING AND AMOUNTS OF WINTERY PRECIP ARE THE MAIN CONCERNS FOR             
 LATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.                                           
 UPPER AIR PATTERN WILL HAVE A BROAD POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH                   
 CENTERED ACROSS THE ROCKIES...WITH ZONAL FLOW DOWNSTREAM ACROSS THE            
 SOUTHERN STATES. WITH THIS PATTERN...ANY UPPER AIR DISTURBANCES WILL           
 BE QUITE SHEARED IN A CONFLUENT UPPER PATTERN ACROSS THE LOWER OHIO            
 VALLEY. ONE THING TO NOTE IS A SHARPENING JET STREAK THAT WILL                 
 DEVELOP AND MOVE ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY EARLY THURSDAY. LIFT              
 ASSOCIATED WITH THE LEFT FRONT QUADRANT OF THIS JET WILL MOVE ACROSS           
 THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY AND PROVIDE A CHANCE OF SNOW BEGINNING EARLY             
 THURSDAY.                                                                      
 AT THE SURFACE...ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC           
 SEABOARD EARLY THURSDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW SOUTHWESTERLY MID LEVEL               
 FLOW TO RESUME ABOVE COLDER AIR IN PLACE WITHIN THE BOUNDARY LAYER.            
 MAIN AXIS OF MOISTURE WILL REMAIN SOUTH...WHERE PLENTY OF RAIN IS              
 EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF STATES ASSOCIATED WITH AN ELEVATED           
 WARM FRONT. FARTHER NORTH...LIFT WILL OCCUR WITH MUCH LESS MOISTURE            
 AVAILABLE AND WILL BE A RESULT OF UPPER AIR DYNAMICS.                          
 BOTH ETA AND GFS HINT AT POSSIBLY TWO SEPARATE EPISODES OF WINTERY             
 PRECIPITATION. THE FIRST WILL MOVE ACROSS OUR CWA EARLY                        
 THURSDAY...AND THE SECOND...LATE THURSDAY AND EARLY FRIDAY. FORECAST           
 SOUNDINGS SHOW BASICALLY ALL OF CENTRAL KENTUCKY COLD ENOUGH FOR ALL           
 SNOW WITH THIS FIRST EPISODE. MOISTURE WILL BE SCANT...BUT WITH                
 RAIN/SNOW RATIOS GREATER THAN 10 TO 1 SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS...              
 PERHAPS AN INCH OR TWO...LOOK LIKELY. INITIALLY...VERY DRY LOW                 
 LEVEL AIR WILL BE IN PLACE EARLY THURSDAY...THIS I THINK WILL HELP             
 KEEP PRECIP ALL SNOW AT THE BEGINNING...BUT ALSO MAY DELAY THE                 
 ONSET...WHICH SHOULD BE DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS.                             
 BY LATE THURSDAY...A WEAK UPPER AIR DISTURBANCE IS FORECAST BY BOTH            
 THE NAM AND THE GFS TO MOVE ACROSS OUR REGION. A SECOND ROUND OF               
 LIGHT PRECIP WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS...BUT WARMER BOUNDARY                
 LAYER TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF KENTUCKY MAY ALLOW             
 SOME RAIN TO MIX IN WITH THE SNOW. ANY SNOW AMOUNTS WITH THIS WILL             
 BE LIGHT AS WELL...WITH SNOW ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLY APPROACHING ONE            
 INCH. WIND WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS A SURFACE                
 TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. COLDER AIR WILL ARRIVE FRIDAY             
 AFTERNOON AS FLURRIES WILL BE ENDING.                                          
 TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY                      
 MORNING...WITH HIGHS AS WARM AS THE MID 30S THURSDAY AFTERNOON                 
 ACROSS THE SOUTH.                                                              
 JSD                                                                            
 .LONG TERM (SATURDAY-TUESDAY)...                                               
 DEEP POLAR VORTEX JUST SOUTHWEST OF HUDSON`S BAY WILL KEEP VERY COLD           
 AIR LOCKED IN PLACE ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST AND THE GREAT LAKES.              
 COLD AIR WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY AS HIGH                   
 PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. FRIGID AIR WILL ARRIVE LATE           
 SATURDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY TWO ARCTIC FRONTS ARE FORECAST           
 TO MOVE THROUGH KENTUCKY...ONE LATE SATURDAY AND THE SECOND ONE                
 EARLY MONDAY. IT`S POSSIBLE THAT MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL HAVE THE              
 COLDEST TEMPERATURES SINCE LATE DECEMBER 2004.                                 
 JSD                                                                            
 &&                                                                             
 .LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                            
 KY...NONE.                                                                     
 IN...NONE.                                                                     
 &&                                                                             
 $$                                                                             
</pre> ky                                                                       

 AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                       
 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY                                         
 1220 PM EST TUE JAN 30 2007                                                    
 .AVIATION (18Z TAFS)...                                                        
 GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS TO 22KTS ARE EXPECTED IN THE WAKE OF A COLD              
 FRONT WHICH HAS MOVED EAST OF THE TAF SITES. THESE GUSTY WINDS WILL            
 DIMINISH AROUND 00Z. SCT TO BKN CU WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS SDF AND             
 LEX THIS AFTERNOON AS AN UPPER TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE LOWER OHIO             
 VALLEY. CLEAR SKIES AND VFR VSBYS EXPECTED AFTER 02Z.  --JA                    
 .SHORT TERM (THIS AFTERNOON)...                                                
 AT 16Z A COLD FRONT WAS LOCATED EAST OF A LINE FROM WINCHESTER IN              
 CENTRAL KY TO GLASGOW. TEMPERATURES HAD DROPPED 5 TO 10 DEGREES JUST           
 AFTER THE FRONTAL PASSAGE AND LOOKING UP STREAM READINGS WERE IN THE           
 TEENS. JUST LIKE SUNDAY... DEW POINTS HAVE DROPPED INTO THE SINGLE             
 DIGITS ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE CWFA.                                
 WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION ISOLATED TO LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS THIS                   
 AFTERNOON AS CU FIELD DEVELOPS BEHIND THE FRONT AND WITH STEEPENING            
 LAPSE RATES. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THEIR SLOW DOWNWARD TREND              
 EVEN WITH SOME SUNSHINE. UPDATED FORECAST OUT BY 1115. --JA                    
 PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW.                                                     
 CLIPPER SHORT WAVE MOVING ESE THROUGH IOWA INTO IL/IN ATTM...WITH              
 ASSOC SFC TROF/FRONT STRETCHING FROM NEAR IND TO PAH AS OF 6Z.                 
 MOISTURE POOLING ALONG THE FRONT...WITH DEWPOINTS RISING INTO THE              
 MID 20S. SCT SHSN HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG/AHEAD OF THE SFC FRONT...WITH           
 A FEW MOVING INTO THE LMK CWA AND AS FAR S AS NEAR LEITCHFIELD.                
 RECENT ACARS DATA AT KSDF SHOW VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES TO 700MB...              
 HELPING PROMOTE THIS PRECIP.                                                   
 EXPECT ISLTD-SCT SHSN TO REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH THE MORNING                   
 HOURS...WITH HIGHEST CHCS OVER THE N 1/2 OF THE CWA...DECREASING               
 SOUTHWARD. ANY SNOW AMTS SHOULD BE MINOR AT BEST THOUGH SOME OF THE            
 SHSN HAVE BEEN INTENSE OVER IL/IN/OH BASED ON RADAR REFLECTIVITIES             
 NEAR 35DBZ OR HIGHER...SO IF SOME OF THESE WERE TO AFFECT OUR CWA              
 THERE COULD BE LOCALIZED ACCUMS OF A COUPLE TENTHS OF AN INCH IN A             
 SHORT PERIOD OF TIME. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR AS WE GET CLOSER TO             
 THE MORNING DRIVE.                                                             
 BASED ON NAM/RUC...SFC FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH WRN COUNTIES AROUND             
 10-12Z...INTO ERN/SRN COUNTIES 12-14Z TIMEFRAME. THIS WILL BRING A             
 ROUND OF GUSTY W/NW WINDS TODAY. BUFKIT DIAGNOSTICS INDICATE GUSTS             
 TO 20-25KTS POSSIBLE AND THIS SEEMS REASONABLE BASED ON UPSTREAM               
 OBSERVATIONS. THIS WILL ALSO BRING STEADY OR FALLING TEMPS (EXCEPT             
 PERHAPS THE FAR SE COUNTIES). HAVE FOLLOWED A RUC/NAM BLEND FOR                
 TEMPS TODAY INTO TONIGHT.                                                      
 CHANCES FOR SHSN WILL CONTINUE INTO THE AFTN WITH STEEP LAPSE                  
 RATES...THOUGH FEEL THAT OVERALL THREAT WILL BE LOWER THAN IN THE              
 MORNING DUE TO SIGNIFICANTLY DRIER AIR ADVECTING INTO THE LOWER OHIO           
 VALLEY. DEWPOINTS WILL LIKELY FALL INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS THIS AFTN.           
 WILL WORD AFTERNOON POPS AS CHANCE VERSUS MORNING COVERAGE WORDING.            
 GUSTY WINDS WILL LIGHTEN AFTER SUNSET...THOUGH BEFORE THAT OCCURS              
 WIND CHILL VALUES THIS AFTN INTO THE EARLY EVENING WILL LIKELY DROP            
 INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS WITH A FEW NEAR-ZERO VALUES POSSIBLE. HAVE              
 ALLOWED SKIES TO CLEAR OVERNIGHT...THOUGH DID NOT GO WITH COMPLETE             
 CLEARING SINCE NAM AND TO A LESSER EXTENT GFS SUGGEST AN AREA OF               
 3-5KFT CLOUDS SWEEPING ACROSS THE CWA BETWEEN 6-9Z/WED (OVERNIGHT).            
 CS                                                                             
 &&                                                                             
 .LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                            
 KY...NONE.                                                                     
 IN...NONE.                                                                     
 &&                                                                             
 $$                                                                             
</pre> ky                                                                       

 AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                       
 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY                                         
 1105 AM EST TUE JAN 30 2007                                                    
 .SHORT TERM (THIS AFTERNOON)...                                                
 AT 16Z A COLD FRONT WAS LOCATED EAST OF A LINE FROM WINCHESTER IN              
 CENTRAL KY TO GLASGOW. TEMPERATURES HAD DROPPED 5 TO 10 DEGREES JUST           
 AFTER THE FRONTAL PASSAGE AND LOOKING UP STREAM READINGS WERE IN THE           
 TEENS. JUST LIKE SUNDAY... DEW POINTS HAVE DROPPED INTO THE SINGLE             
 DIGITS ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE CWFA.                                
 WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION ISOLATED TO LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS THIS                   
 AFTERNOON AS CU FIELD DEVELOPS BEHIND THE FRONT AND WITH STEEPENING            
 LAPSE RATES. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THEIR SLOW DOWNWARD TREND              
 EVEN WITH SOME SUNSHINE. UPDATED FORECAST OUT BY 1115. --JA                    
 PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW.                                                     
 CLIPPER SHORT WAVE MOVING ESE THROUGH IOWA INTO IL/IN ATTM...WITH              
 ASSOC SFC TROF/FRONT STRETCHING FROM NEAR IND TO PAH AS OF 6Z.                 
 MOISTURE POOLING ALONG THE FRONT...WITH DEWPOINTS RISING INTO THE              
 MID 20S. SCT SHSN HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG/AHEAD OF THE SFC FRONT...WITH           
 A FEW MOVING INTO THE LMK CWA AND AS FAR S AS NEAR LEITCHFIELD.                
 RECENT ACARS DATA AT KSDF SHOW VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES TO 700MB...              
 HELPING PROMOTE THIS PRECIP.                                                   
 EXPECT ISLTD-SCT SHSN TO REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH THE MORNING                   
 HOURS...WITH HIGHEST CHCS OVER THE N 1/2 OF THE CWA...DECREASING               
 SOUTHWARD. ANY SNOW AMTS SHOULD BE MINOR AT BEST THOUGH SOME OF THE            
 SHSN HAVE BEEN INTENSE OVER IL/IN/OH BASED ON RADAR REFLECTIVITIES             
 NEAR 35DBZ OR HIGHER...SO IF SOME OF THESE WERE TO AFFECT OUR CWA              
 THERE COULD BE LOCALIZED ACCUMS OF A COUPLE TENTHS OF AN INCH IN A             
 SHORT PERIOD OF TIME. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR AS WE GET CLOSER TO             
 THE MORNING DRIVE.                                                             
 BASED ON NAM/RUC...SFC FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH WRN COUNTIES AROUND             
 10-12Z...INTO ERN/SRN COUNTIES 12-14Z TIMEFRAME. THIS WILL BRING A             
 ROUND OF GUSTY W/NW WINDS TODAY. BUFKIT DIAGNOSTICS INDICATE GUSTS             
 TO 20-25KTS POSSIBLE AND THIS SEEMS REASONABLE BASED ON UPSTREAM               
 OBSERVATIONS. THIS WILL ALSO BRING STEADY OR FALLING TEMPS (EXCEPT             
 PERHAPS THE FAR SE COUNTIES). HAVE FOLLOWED A RUC/NAM BLEND FOR                
 TEMPS TODAY INTO TONIGHT.                                                      
 CHANCES FOR SHSN WILL CONTINUE INTO THE AFTN WITH STEEP LAPSE                  
 RATES...THOUGH FEEL THAT OVERALL THREAT WILL BE LOWER THAN IN THE              
 MORNING DUE TO SIGNIFICANTLY DRIER AIR ADVECTING INTO THE LOWER OHIO           
 VALLEY. DEWPOINTS WILL LIKELY FALL INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS THIS AFTN.           
 WILL WORD AFTERNOON POPS AS CHANCE VERSUS MORNING COVERAGE WORDING.            
 GUSTY WINDS WILL LIGHTEN AFTER SUNSET...THOUGH BEFORE THAT OCCURS              
 WIND CHILL VALUES THIS AFTN INTO THE EARLY EVENING WILL LIKELY DROP            
 INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS WITH A FEW NEAR-ZERO VALUES POSSIBLE. HAVE              
 ALLOWED SKIES TO CLEAR OVERNIGHT...THOUGH DID NOT GO WITH COMPLETE             
 CLEARING SINCE NAM AND TO A LESSER EXTENT GFS SUGGEST AN AREA OF               
 3-5KFT CLOUDS SWEEPING ACROSS THE CWA BETWEEN 6-9Z/WED (OVERNIGHT).            
 CS                                                                             
 .AVIATION (12Z TAFS)...                                                        
 COLD FRONT NOW ROLLING THROUGH THE LMK CWA AS OF 11Z...WITH WINDS AT           
 HNB SOLIDLY NW WHILE DIRECTIONS AT SDF/FTK SWITCHING SOON. WITH                
 FROPA...WE EXPECT WNW WINDS WILL INCREASE AND BECOME GUSTY. GUSTS TO           
 20-25KTS ARE LIKELY THROUGH AT LEAST MID-AFTERNOON TODAY. SHSN ARE             
 WIDELY SCATTERED AT THIS POINT AND CIGS ARE VFR-MVFR UPSTREAM OVER             
 SRN IL AND SW IN. LATEST NAM SHOWS CIGS DROPPING TO AROUND 3000 FEET           
 THIS MORNING AT SDF/LEX...THEN RISING TO NEAR 5KFT WITH SKIES                  
 ACTUALLY GOING SCT (EVEN FEW OVER SRN KY).                                     
 -SHSN THREAT FOR THE TAF SITES SEEMS MINIMAL...WILL NOT MENTION IN             
 PREVAILING GROUPS AND HANDLE ANY -SHSN WITH TEMPO GROUPS IF                    
 NECESSARY. GFS/NAM HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT IN BRINGING AN AREA OF LOWER           
 CIGS (~2KFT) TONIGHT BETWEEN 0Z-6Z...AND WILL ACCOUNT FOR THIS.                
 WINDS WILL SUBSIDE CONSIDERABLY AFTER 3Z AS SFC HIGH PRES SLIDES               
 INTO THE REGION.                                                               
 CS                                                                             
 &&                                                                             
 .LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                            
 KY...NONE.                                                                     
 IN...NONE.                                                                     
 &&                                                                             
 $$                                                                             
</pre> ky                                                                       

 AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                       
 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY                                         
 605 AM EST TUE JAN 30 2007                                                     
 .AVIATION (12Z TAFS)...                                                        
 COLD FRONT NOW ROLLING THROUGH THE LMK CWA AS OF 11Z...WITH WINDS AT           
 HNB SOLIDLY NW WHILE DIRECTIONS AT SDF/FTK SWITCHING SOON. WITH                
 FROPA...WE EXPECT WNW WINDS WILL INCREASE AND BECOME GUSTY. GUSTS TO           
 20-25KTS ARE LIKELY THROUGH AT LEAST MID-AFTERNOON TODAY. SHSN ARE             
 WIDELY SCATTERED AT THIS POINT AND CIGS ARE VFR-MVFR UPSTREAM OVER             
 SRN IL AND SW IN. LATEST NAM SHOWS CIGS DROPPING TO AROUND 3000 FEET           
 THIS MORNING AT SDF/LEX...THEN RISING TO NEAR 5KFT WITH SKIES                  
 ACTUALLY GOING SCT (EVEN FEW OVER SRN KY).                                     
 -SHSN THREAT FOR THE TAF SITES SEEMS MINIMAL...WILL NOT MENTION IN             
 PREVAILING GROUPS AND HANDLE ANY -SHSN WITH TEMPO GROUPS IF                    
 NECESSARY. GFS/NAM HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT IN BRINGING AN AREA OF LOWER           
 CIGS (~2KFT) TONIGHT BETWEEN 0Z-6Z...AND WILL ACCOUNT FOR THIS.                
 WINDS WILL SUBSIDE CONSIDERABLY AFTER 3Z AS SFC HIGH PRES SLIDES               
 INTO THE REGION.                                                               
 CS                                                                             
 &&                                                                             
 .SHORT TERM (TODAY-TONIGHT)...                                                 
 CLIPPER SHORT WAVE MOVING ESE THROUGH IOWA INTO IL/IN ATTM...WITH              
 ASSOC SFC TROF/FRONT STRETCHING FROM NEAR IND TO PAH AS OF 6Z.                 
 MOISTURE POOLING ALONG THE FRONT...WITH DEWPOINTS RISING INTO THE              
 MID 20S. SCT SHSN HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG/AHEAD OF THE SFC FRONT...WITH           
 A FEW MOVING INTO THE LMK CWA AND AS FAR S AS NEAR LEITCHFIELD.                
 RECENT ACARS DATA AT KSDF SHOW VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES TO 700MB...              
 HELPING PROMOTE THIS PRECIP.                                                   
 EXPECT ISLTD-SCT SHSN TO REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH THE MORNING                   
 HOURS...WITH HIGHEST CHCS OVER THE N 1/2 OF THE CWA...DECREASING               
 SOUTHWARD. ANY SNOW AMTS SHOULD BE MINOR AT BEST THOUGH SOME OF THE            
 SHSN HAVE BEEN INTENSE OVER IL/IN/OH BASED ON RADAR REFLECTIVITIES             
 NEAR 35DBZ OR HIGHER...SO IF SOME OF THESE WERE TO AFFECT OUR CWA              
 THERE COULD BE LOCALIZED ACCUMS OF A COUPLE TENTHS OF AN INCH IN A             
 SHORT PERIOD OF TIME. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR AS WE GET CLOSER TO             
 THE MORNING DRIVE.                                                             
 BASED ON NAM/RUC...SFC FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH WRN COUNTIES AROUND             
 10-12Z...INTO ERN/SRN COUNTIES 12-14Z TIMEFRAME. THIS WILL BRING A             
 ROUND OF GUSTY W/NW WINDS TODAY. BUFKIT DIAGNOSTICS INDICATE GUSTS             
 TO 20-25KTS POSSIBLE AND THIS SEEMS REASONABLE BASED ON UPSTREAM               
 OBSERVATIONS. THIS WILL ALSO BRING STEADY OR FALLING TEMPS (EXCEPT             
 PERHAPS THE FAR SE COUNTIES). HAVE FOLLOWED A RUC/NAM BLEND FOR                
 TEMPS TODAY INTO TONIGHT.                                                      
 CHANCES FOR SHSN WILL CONTINUE INTO THE AFTN WITH STEEP LAPSE                  
 RATES...THOUGH FEEL THAT OVERALL THREAT WILL BE LOWER THAN IN THE              
 MORNING DUE TO SIGNIFICANTLY DRIER AIR ADVECTING INTO THE LOWER OHIO           
 VALLEY. DEWPOINTS WILL LIKELY FALL INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS THIS AFTN.           
 WILL WORD AFTERNOON POPS AS CHANCE VERSUS MORNING COVERAGE WORDING.            
 GUSTY WINDS WILL LIGHTEN AFTER SUNSET...THOUGH BEFORE THAT OCCURS              
 WIND CHILL VALUES THIS AFTN INTO THE EARLY EVENING WILL LIKELY DROP            
 INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS WITH A FEW NEAR-ZERO VALUES POSSIBLE. HAVE              
 ALLOWED SKIES TO CLEAR OVERNIGHT...THOUGH DID NOT GO WITH COMPLETE             
 CLEARING SINCE NAM AND TO A LESSER EXTENT GFS SUGGEST AN AREA OF               
 3-5KFT CLOUDS SWEEPING ACROSS THE CWA BETWEEN 6-9Z/WED (OVERNIGHT).            
 CS                                                                             
 .LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY-MONDAY)...                                               
 ...ACTIVE WEATHER PERIOD WITH POTENTIAL FOR ACCUMULATING SNOWS LATE            
 WED THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...                                                  
 WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...                                              
 FAIRLY ACTIVE AND CHALLENGING FORECAST PERIOD APPEARS TO BE IN STORE           
 FOR THIS PART OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.  LATE EVENING MODELS CONTINUE            
 TO BE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH SOUTHWESTERN U.S. UPPER LEVEL WAVE             
 EJECTING EASTWARD DURING THE PERIOD.  ALL THE MODELS INDUCE SFC                
 CYCLOGENESIS ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH AND BRING A SFC LOW EASTWARD                
 ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF STATES.  THE PAST FEW RUNS OF THE MODELS              
 HAVE BEEN TRENDING NORTHWARD WITH THE TRACK OF THE SFC LOW ACROSS              
 THE SOUTHEAST U.S.  WE STILL HAVE TWO CAMPS OF TRACKS TONIGHT...WITH           
 THE CANADIAN GLOBAL AND NAM-WRF BEING THE FARTHEST NORTH WITH THE              
 LOW COMING ACROSS THE FA...WHILE THE UKMET AND EURO ARE FURTHER                
 SOUTH.  THE 00Z OP GFS IS BETWEEN THESE TWO CAMPS AND OFFERS A                 
 PRETTY GOOD COMPROMISE.                                                        
 USING A CONSENSUS OF THE MODEL DATA...WEDNESDAY WILL GENERALLY BE A            
 DRY DAY WITH MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS INCREASING FROM WEST TO EAST.               
 ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE WILL INCREASE WEDNESDAY EVENING AS SFC LOW BEGINS           
 ITS TREK TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST.  ANTECEDENT DRY AIRMASS WILL TAKE              
 SOME TIME TO MOISTEN UP WEDNESDAY NIGHT SO PRECIPITATION MAY NOT               
 START UNTIL LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT.  NONETHELESS...IT DOES APPEAR                
 PRECIPITATION WILL BE LIKELY AND THUS HAVE INCREASED POPS TO LIKELY            
 FOR THIS PERIOD.  MODEL PROFILES FROM THE GFS SUGGEST ALL SNOW AS              
 THE PRECIPITATION TYPE FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT.                                    
 MAIN BULK OF PRECIPITATION WILL FALL ON THURSDAY AS ISENTROPIC LIFT            
 AND FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING WILL BE MAXIMIZED OVER KENTUCKY.  BANDED           
 PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY LIFT NORTHWARD THROUGH THE DAY AND BE                
 ORIENTED ALONG THE OHIO RIVER BY EVENING.  HAVE GONE WITH LIKELY               
 POPS HERE BUT PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL BE CHALLENGING.  IN THE PAST             
 SEVERAL EVENTS...WE HAVE SEEN STORMS SYSTEMS OUT IN THE LONG RANGE             
 BEING FORECAST TO GO SOUTH...ONLY TO SEE A NORTHWARD TRACK VERIFY AS           
 THE EVENT CAME CLOSER/UNFOLDED.  IN ADDITION...THE NUMERICAL MODELS            
 HAVE HAD A TOUGH TIME ESTIMATING THE AMOUNT OF WARM AIR ADVECTING IN           
 ALOFT...WHICH HAS RESULTED IN MORE LIQUID PRECIPITATION OCCURRING.             
 TONIGHT...WE ARE IN THE SAME DILEMMA.                                          
 BASED ON ALL THE AVAILABLE DATA...AND NOT COMPLETELY THROWING OUT              
 THE NAM-WRF...AM INCLINED TO LEAVE A MIX OF RAIN/SLEET/SNOW IN                 
 ACROSS THE SOUTHERN FA SOUTH OF A LINE FROM NEAR HARTFORD TO JUST              
 SOUTH OF RICHMOND.  NORTH OF THAT LINE...FEEL THAT DOMINANT                    
 PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL BE SNOW.  AS SFC LOW HEADS EAST THU                    
 NIGHT...SHOULD SEE ALL AREAS GO TO SNOW.  ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOW                
 APPEAR LIKELY AT THIS TIME WITH TWO TO FOUR INCHES ACROSS THE                  
 NORTHERN HALF OF THE FA WITH ONE TO TWO ACROSS SOUTHERN KY.                    
 HOWEVER...IF THE NORTHWARD TREND IN THE SURFACE TRACK OCCURS...LESS            
 SNOW WILL BE LIKELY IN THE SOUTH AND THE 2-4 INCH BAND WOULD BE                
 DISPLACED FURTHER NORTH...PROBABLY NORTH OF THE OHIO RIVER. GIVEN              
 THIS EVENT IS SOME 60-72 HORUS...WILL ISSUE A SPECIAL WX STMT THIS             
 MORNING HIGHLIGHT IMPACTS OF THE EVENT.                                        
 SNOW WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THURSDAY NIGHT AND DIMINISH SOME BY                  
 FRIDAY.  SECONDARY CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO SWING THROUGH            
 THE REGION FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND MAY BRING ANOTHER ROUND            
 OF SNOW SHOWERS TO THE REGION.  THUS...HAVE PRETTY MUCH LEFT ONGOING           
 FORECAST INTACT FOR FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT.  AS FOR TEMPERATURES              
 THROUGH THE PERIOD...GENERALLY FOLLOWED A BLEND OF OP GFS RAW SFC              
 TEMPS WITH A SPLASH OF THE MOS STAT GUIDANCE.                                  
 JARVIS                                                                         
 FORECAST FROM SATURDAY ONWARD WAS LEFT AS IS...PREVIOUS FORECAST               
 DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...                                                          
 WILL STAY CLOSE TO THE EURO THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH SOME SUPPORT             
 FROM THE GFS THROUGH THIS PERIOD AS WELL. INDICES (PNA/EPO/AO) STILL           
 SUPPORT THE COLDER AIR TO CONTINUE TO REPLENISH ITSELF THROUGH THE             
 NEXT FEW WEEKS. DEEP LONGWAVE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM HUDSON BAY POLAR             
 VORTEX(PV) ROTATING FROM THE MS VALLEY THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY OVER            
 THE WEEKEND...WITH POSSIBLY THE COLDEST AIR OF THE WINTER TO DATE IN           
 THIS PERIOD. SFC HI PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY INTO             
 SUNDAY...WEAK CLIPPER STILL LOOKS POSSIBLE SUNDAY EVENING INTO EARLY           
 MONDAY BEFORE ANOTHER VERY COLD ARCTIC AIR MASS DROPS INTO THE                 
 CENTRAL US AND INTO THE OHIO VALLEY EARLY NEXT WEEK. AS MENTIONED              
 EARLIER IF AN SNOW COVER ON THE GROUND DURING THIS PERIOD...MAY SEE            
 TEMPS APPROACH ZERO FOR LOWS...WILL NOT ADJUST THAT WAY AS OF                  
 NOW...BUT HAVE TRENDED COLDER THRU THE PERIOD.                                 
 -SCHOTT                                                                        
 &&                                                                             
 .LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                            
 KY...NONE.                                                                     
 IN...NONE.                                                                     
 &&                                                                             
 $$                                                                             
</pre> ky                                                                       

 AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                       
 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY                                         
 240 AM EST TUE JAN 30 2007                                                     
 .SHORT TERM (TODAY-TONIGHT)...                                                 
 CLIPPER SHORT WAVE MOVING ESE THROUGH IOWA INTO IL/IN ATTM...WITH              
 ASSOC SFC TROF/FRONT STRETCHING FROM NEAR IND TO PAH AS OF 6Z.                 
 MOISTURE POOLING ALONG THE FRONT...WITH DEWPOINTS RISING INTO THE              
 MID 20S. SCT SHSN HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG/AHEAD OF THE SFC FRONT...WITH           
 A FEW MOVING INTO THE LMK CWA AND AS FAR S AS NEAR LEITCHFIELD.                
 RECENT ACARS DATA AT KSDF SHOW VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES TO 700MB...              
 HELPING PROMOTE THIS PRECIP.                                                   
 EXPECT ISLTD-SCT SHSN TO REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH THE MORNING                   
 HOURS...WITH HIGHEST CHCS OVER THE N 1/2 OF THE CWA...DECREASING               
 SOUTHWARD. ANY SNOW AMTS SHOULD BE MINOR AT BEST THOUGH SOME OF THE            
 SHSN HAVE BEEN INTENSE OVER IL/IN/OH BASED ON RADAR REFLECTIVITIES             
 NEAR 35DBZ OR HIGHER...SO IF SOME OF THESE WERE TO AFFECT OUR CWA              
 THERE COULD BE LOCALIZED ACCUMS OF A COUPLE TENTHS OF AN INCH IN A             
 SHORT PERIOD OF TIME. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR AS WE GET CLOSER TO             
 THE MORNING DRIVE.                                                             
 BASED ON NAM/RUC...SFC FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH WRN COUNTIES AROUND             
 10-12Z...INTO ERN/SRN COUNTIES 12-14Z TIMEFRAME. THIS WILL BRING A             
 ROUND OF GUSTY W/NW WINDS TODAY. BUFKIT DIAGNOSTICS INDICATE GUSTS             
 TO 20-25KTS POSSIBLE AND THIS SEEMS REASONABLE BASED ON UPSTREAM               
 OBSERVATIONS. THIS WILL ALSO BRING STEADY OR FALLING TEMPS (EXCEPT             
 PERHAPS THE FAR SE COUNTIES). HAVE FOLLOWED A RUC/NAM BLEND FOR                
 TEMPS TODAY INTO TONIGHT.                                                      
 CHANCES FOR SHSN WILL CONTINUE INTO THE AFTN WITH STEEP LAPSE                  
 RATES...THOUGH FEEL THAT OVERALL THREAT WILL BE LOWER THAN IN THE              
 MORNING DUE TO SIGNIFICANTLY DRIER AIR ADVECTING INTO THE LOWER OHIO           
 VALLEY. DEWPOINTS WILL LIKELY FALL INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS THIS AFTN.           
 WILL WORD AFTERNOON POPS AS CHANCE VERSUS MORNING COVERAGE WORDING.            
 GUSTY WINDS WILL LIGHTEN AFTER SUNSET...THOUGH BEFORE THAT OCCURS              
 WIND CHILL VALUES THIS AFTN INTO THE EARLY EVENING WILL LIKELY DROP            
 INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS WITH A FEW NEAR-ZERO VALUES POSSIBLE. HAVE              
 ALLOWED SKIES TO CLEAR OVERNIGHT...THOUGH DID NOT GO WITH COMPLETE             
 CLEARING SINCE NAM AND TO A LESSER EXTENT GFS SUGGEST AN AREA OF               
 3-5KFT CLOUDS SWEEPING ACROSS THE CWA BETWEEN 6-9Z/WED (OVERNIGHT).            
 CS                                                                             
 .LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY-MONDAY)...                                               
 ...ACTIVE WEATHER PERIOD WITH POTENTIAL FOR ACCUMULATING SNOWS LATE            
 WED THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...                                                  
 WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...                                              
 FAIRLY ACTIVE AND CHALLENGING FORECAST PERIOD APPEARS TO BE IN STORE           
 FOR THIS PART OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.  LATE EVENING MODELS CONTINUE            
 TO BE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH SOUTHWESTERN U.S. UPPER LEVEL WAVE             
 EJECTING EASTWARD DURING THE PERIOD.  ALL THE MODELS INDUCE SFC                
 CYCLOGENESIS ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH AND BRING A SFC LOW EASTWARD                
 ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF STATES.  THE PAST FEW RUNS OF THE MODELS              
 HAVE BEEN TRENDING NORTHWARD WITH THE TRACK OF THE SFC LOW ACROSS              
 THE SOUTHEAST U.S.  WE STILL HAVE TWO CAMPS OF TRACKS TONIGHT...WITH           
 THE CANADIAN GLOBAL AND NAM-WRF BEING THE FARTHEST NORTH WITH THE              
 LOW COMING ACROSS THE FA...WHILE THE UKMET AND EURO ARE FURTHER                
 SOUTH.  THE 00Z OP GFS IS BETWEEN THESE TWO CAMPS AND OFFERS A                 
 PRETTY GOOD COMPROMISE.                                                        
 USING A CONSENSUS OF THE MODEL DATA...WEDNESDAY WILL GENERALLY BE A            
 DRY DAY WITH MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS INCREASING FROM WEST TO EAST.               
 ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE WILL INCREASE WEDNESDAY EVENING AS SFC LOW BEGINS           
 ITS TREK TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST.  ANTECEDENT DRY AIRMASS WILL TAKE              
 SOME TIME TO MOISTEN UP WEDNESDAY NIGHT SO PRECIPITATION MAY NOT               
 START UNTIL LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT.  NONETHELESS...IT DOES APPEAR                
 PRECIPITATION WILL BE LIKELY AND THUS HAVE INCREASED POPS TO LIKELY            
 FOR THIS PERIOD.  MODEL PROFILES FROM THE GFS SUGGEST ALL SNOW AS              
 THE PRECIPITATION TYPE FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT.                                    
 MAIN BULK OF PRECIPITATION WILL FALL ON THURSDAY AS ISENTROPIC LIFT            
 AND FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING WILL BE MAXIMIZED OVER KENTUCKY.  BANDED           
 PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY LIFT NORTHWARD THROUGH THE DAY AND BE                
 ORIENTED ALONG THE OHIO RIVER BY EVENING.  HAVE GONE WITH LIKELY               
 POPS HERE BUT PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL BE CHALLENGING.  IN THE PAST             
 SEVERAL EVENTS...WE HAVE SEEN STORMS SYSTEMS OUT IN THE LONG RANGE             
 BEING FORECAST TO GO SOUTH...ONLY TO SEE A NORTHWARD TRACK VERIFY AS           
 THE EVENT CAME CLOSER/UNFOLDED.  IN ADDITION...THE NUMERICAL MODELS            
 HAVE HAD A TOUGH TIME ESTIMATING THE AMOUNT OF WARM AIR ADVECTING IN           
 ALOFT...WHICH HAS RESULTED IN MORE LIQUID PRECIPITATION OCCURRING.             
 TONIGHT...WE ARE IN THE SAME DILEMMA.                                          
 BASED ON ALL THE AVAILABLE DATA...AND NOT COMPLETELY THROWING OUT              
 THE NAM-WRF...AM INCLINED TO LEAVE A MIX OF RAIN/SLEET/SNOW IN                 
 ACROSS THE SOUTHERN FA SOUTH OF A LINE FROM NEAR HARTFORD TO JUST              
 SOUTH OF RICHMOND.  NORTH OF THAT LINE...FEEL THAT DOMINANT                    
 PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL BE SNOW.  AS SFC LOW HEADS EAST THU                    
 NIGHT...SHOULD SEE ALL AREAS GO TO SNOW.  ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOW                
 APPEAR LIKELY AT THIS TIME WITH TWO TO FOUR INCHES ACROSS THE                  
 NORTHERN HALF OF THE FA WITH ONE TO TWO ACROSS SOUTHERN KY.                    
 HOWEVER...IF THE NORTHWARD TREND IN THE SURFACE TRACK OCCURS...LESS            
 SNOW WILL BE LIKELY IN THE SOUTH AND THE 2-4 INCH BAND WOULD BE                
 DISPLACED FURTHER NORTH...PROBABLY NORTH OF THE OHIO RIVER. GIVEN              
 THIS EVENT IS SOME 60-72 HORUS...WILL ISSUE A SPECIAL WX STMT THIS             
 MORNING HIGHLIGHT IMPACTS OF THE EVENT.                                        
 SNOW WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THURSDAY NIGHT AND DIMINISH SOME BY                  
 FRIDAY.  SECONDARY CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO SWING THROUGH            
 THE REGION FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND MAY BRING ANOTHER ROUND            
 OF SNOW SHOWERS TO THE REGION.  THUS...HAVE PRETTY MUCH LEFT ONGOING           
 FORECAST INTACT FOR FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT.  AS FOR TEMPERATURES              
 THROUGH THE PERIOD...GENERALLY FOLLOWED A BLEND OF OP GFS RAW SFC              
 TEMPS WITH A SPLASH OF THE MOS STAT GUIDANCE.                                  
 JARVIS                                                                         
 FORECAST FROM SATURDAY ONWARD WAS LEFT AS IS...PREVIOUS FORECAST               
 DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...                                                          
 WILL STAY CLOSE TO THE EURO THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH SOME SUPPORT             
 FROM THE GFS THROUGH THIS PERIOD AS WELL. INDICES (PNA/EPO/AO) STILL           
 SUPPORT THE COLDER AIR TO CONTINUE TO REPLENISH ITSELF THROUGH THE             
 NEXT FEW WEEKS. DEEP LONGWAVE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM HUDSON BAY POLAR             
 VORTEX(PV) ROTATING FROM THE MS VALLEY THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY OVER            
 THE WEEKEND...WITH POSSIBLY THE COLDEST AIR OF THE WINTER TO DATE IN           
 THIS PERIOD. SFC HI PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY INTO             
 SUNDAY...WEAK CLIPPER STILL LOOKS POSSIBLE SUNDAY EVENING INTO EARLY           
 MONDAY BEFORE ANOTHER VERY COLD ARCTIC AIR MASS DROPS INTO THE                 
 CENTRAL US AND INTO THE OHIO VALLEY EARLY NEXT WEEK. AS MENTIONED              
 EARLIER IF AN SNOW COVER ON THE GROUND DURING THIS PERIOD...MAY SEE            
 TEMPS APPROACH ZERO FOR LOWS...WILL NOT ADJUST THAT WAY AS OF                  
 NOW...BUT HAVE TRENDED COLDER THRU THE PERIOD.                                 
 -SCHOTT                                                                        
 &&                                                                             
 .AVIATION (06Z TAFS)...                                                        
 FOCUS FOR THE NEXT 6-12 HOURS IN THE TAFS CENTERS ON CHCS FOR SNOW             
 SHOWERS ALONG WITH WIND SHIFT AS CLIPPER/COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH             
 THE REGION. AREA RADARS SHOW SCT SHSN OVER IL/IN...BASED ON TRENDS             
 AND LATEST RUC/NAM DATA...A FEW OF THESE MAY AFFECT LEX/SDF TAF                
 SITES THROUGH 15Z...THOUGH COVERAGE WILL LIKELY BE ISLTD SUCH THAT             
 WE WILL NOT CARRY A PREVAILING SHSN GROUP IN THE TAFS...WILL RATHER            
 HANDLE WITH TEMPOS AS NEEDED.                                                  
 CIGS OVER THE REGION ARE NOT TERRIBLY LOW (GENERALLY MVFR-VFR) AND             
 PLAN ON CONTINUING THAT BASED ON FCST SOUNDINGS. SOME CIGS CLOSE TO            
 1-1.5KFT AGL MAY DROP INTO SRN IND AND PARTS OF CNTRL KY NORTH OF              
 I-64 BETWEEN 12-15Z (PER NAM)...BUT WILL NOT MENTION THOSE IN THE              
 TAFS AT THIS TIME. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE W/NW AS COLD FRONT PUSHES           
 THROUGH THE AREA THIS MORNING (11-14Z TIMEFRAME). WHEN THIS HAPPENS            
 WINDS WILL GET GUSTY (GUSTS TO 20-23KTS OR SO) FOR THE BALANCE OF              
 THE DAYLIGHT HOURS.                                                            
 CS                                                                             
 &&                                                                             
 .LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                            
 KY...NONE.                                                                     
 IN...NONE.                                                                     
 &&                                                                             
 $$                                                                             
</pre> ky                                                                       

 AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                       
 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY                                         
 1210 AM EST TUE JAN 30 2007                                                    
 .AVIATION (06Z TAFS)...                                                        
 FOCUS FOR THE NEXT 6-12 HOURS IN THE TAFS CENTERS ON CHCS FOR SNOW             
 SHOWERS ALONG WITH WIND SHIFT AS CLIPPER/COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH             
 THE REGION. AREA RADARS SHOW SCT SHSN OVER IL/IN...BASED ON TRENDS             
 AND LATEST RUC/NAM DATA...A FEW OF THESE MAY AFFECT LEX/SDF TAF                
 SITES THROUGH 15Z...THOUGH COVERAGE WILL LIKELY BE ISLTD SUCH THAT             
 WE WILL NOT CARRY A PREVAILING SHSN GROUP IN THE TAFS...WILL RATHER            
 HANDLE WITH TEMPOS AS NEEDED.                                                  
 CIGS OVER THE REGION ARE NOT TERRIBLY LOW (GENERALLY MVFR-VFR) AND             
 PLAN ON CONTINUING THAT BASED ON FCST SOUNDINGS. SOME CIGS CLOSE TO            
 1-1.5KFT AGL MAY DROP INTO SRN IND AND PARTS OF CNTRL KY NORTH OF              
 I-64 BETWEEN 12-15Z (PER NAM)...BUT WILL NOT MENTION THOSE IN THE              
 TAFS AT THIS TIME. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE W/NW AS COLD FRONT PUSHES           
 THROUGH THE AREA THIS MORNING (11-14Z TIMEFRAME). WHEN THIS HAPPENS            
 WINDS WILL GET GUSTY (GUSTS TO 20-23KTS OR SO) FOR THE BALANCE OF              
 THE DAYLIGHT HOURS.                                                            
 CS                                                                             
 &&                                                                             
 .UPDATE...                                                                     
 DOING A QUICK UPDATE TO ADD MENTION OF ISLTD -SHSN FOR SRN                     
 INDIANA OVERNIGHT. AREA OF SNOW SHOWERS OVER IL/IN WILL AFFECT NRN             
 SECTIONS OF OUR CWA OVERNIGHT AS UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE DROPS SE                
 FROM IA INTO IL. WILL ALSO INCREASE CLOUD COVER ACCORDINGLY...AND              
 ADD MENTION OF FLURRIES FOR THE LOU/LEX VICINITIES.                            
 CS                                                                             
 &&                                                                             
 .SHORT TERM (TONIGHT AND TUESDAY)...                                           
 LONG LOOP WATER VAPOR PICTURES INDICATE YET ANOTHER CLIPPER TYPE               
 SYSTEM DROPPING THROUGH THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON.           
 TEMPERATURE HAVE SURGED INTO THE UPPER 20S AND LOWER 30S AHEAD OF A            
 COLD FRONT LOCATED ACROSS ILLINOIS AND MISSOURI. THIS FRONT WILL               
 SWEEP ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA BETWEEN 9-15Z TUESDAY. IN THE WAKE OF           
 THE FRONT STEEP LAPSE RATES WILL PRODUCE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SNOW            
 SHOWERS. PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE LESS THAN SUNDAY MORNING AS THE               
 ATMOSPHERE IS VERY DRY BUT A FEW LOCATIONS ACROSS THE BLUEGRASS                
 REGION MAY SEE UP TO A HALF INCH OF SNOW IN HEAVIER SHOWERS. COLD              
 AIR WILL ADVECT INTO THE AREA TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND I HAVE GONE                
 SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW MOS HIGHS TUESDAY WITH THE WARMEST                       
 TEMPERATURES OCCURING IN THE MORNING AND FALLING TEMPERATURES DURING           
 THE AFTERNOON.                                                                 
 FOR TONIGHT WE WILL SEE PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND WESTERLY WINDS. MOS            
 TEMPERATURES FOR THIS PERIOD LOOK GOOD. --JA                                   
 .LONG TERM (TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)...                                   
 TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...                                             
 GREAT CONFIDENCE IN THIS PERIOD AS NEARLY UNANIMOUS SOLUTION AMONG             
 THE SHORT RANGE MODELS. WILL USED THE 09Z SREF AS A BASIS FOR THE              
 FORECAST AND HOURLY GRIDS...THOUGH LITTLE IF ANY CHANGE FROM                   
 PREVIOUS FORECAST. TUESDAY NIGHT SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BE EXITING              
 ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS AS LARGE AREA OF SFC HI PRESSURE WORKS EAST            
 INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. BEHIND THE TROUGH ANOTHER REINFORCING SHOT OF            
 COLDER AIR. SFC HI PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY...SOME           
 HIGH CLOUDS WILL START TO STREAM ACROSS THE SKIES DURING THE                   
 AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS AHEAD OF DEVELOPING SOUTHERN                  
 SYSTEM. LOWS WEDNESDAY MORNING WILL DROP INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE              
 TEENS.                                                                         
 THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...                                                         
 AS MENTIONED YESTERDAY...THESE TWO DAYS ARE THE BIGGEST CHALLENGE IN           
 THE FORECAST THROUGH THE NEXT WEEK DUE TO JUMPY MODELS AND THE                 
 ALWAYS PRESENT POSSIBILITY THAT MODELS ARE UNDERPLAYING THE STRENGTH           
 OF SOUTHERN FLOW AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM AND CONTAIN A COLD BIAS                   
 ALOFT...THIS ESPECIALLY GOES FOR THE GFS. ONE THING THAT DOES ADD              
 MUCH MORE CONFIDENCE TO THE FORECAST AS A WHOLE IS THE SOLUTIONS               
 HAVE CONVERGED SOMEWHAT FOR EACH DAY...ESPECIALLY THE 12Z ECMWF AND            
 12Z GFS RUNS FROM TODAY. THEREFORE WILL USE A BLEND OF THE TWO FOR             
 THIS 48 HOUR PERIOD. THE CANADIAN IS NOT TOO FAR OFF BUT HAS A                 
 SLIGHTLY WEAKER SOLUTION...BUT THE UKMET DOES LEND SOME SUPPORT TO             
 THE BLENDED SOLUTION ALLOWING FOR SLIGHTLY INCREASED CONFIDENCE OF             
 THEIR SOLUTIONS.                                                               
 EARLY THURSDAY...ISENTROPIC LIFT IS VERY APPARENT IN BOTH THE GFS              
 AND THE NAM THRU EARLY AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY IN THE 280 TO 290K               
 SURFACES...AS WELL AS MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO THE REGION. SOME                 
 UNCERTAINTY WILL EXIST TO HOW LONG IT TAKES FOR THE VERY DRY LOW               
 LEVELS TO MOISTEN UP...WOULD THINK THAT NO PRECIP SHOULD REACH                 
 GROUND UNTIL THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...MAINLY AFTER 1AM TO 4AM                 
 ACROSS THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA...SPREADING EAST              
 AFTER 7AM. MODEST FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING ACROSS THE REGION...WHICH            
 WOULD BE MAXIMIZED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA           
 THURSDAY MORNING...THEN ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA EAST OF I-65 FROM THE           
 LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. ALONG WITH A 130 TO 140KT JET                 
 STREAK PASSING ACROSS THE MID OHIO VALLEY DURING THE MORNING INTO              
 THE AFTERNOON THURSDAY. ALL TOGETHER IT MEANS A DECENT SHOT A SOME             
 ACCUMULATING SNOW ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...CURRENTLY THE HIGHEST             
 POSSIBLE ACCUMS LOOK TO BE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA            
 SOUTH OF A LINE FROM HARTFORD TO RICHMOND. FORECAST SOUNDINGS                  
 INDICATE THE DOMINATE PRECIP TYPE TO BE SNOW...THOUGH AS MENTIONED             
 EARLIER WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR TREND OF STRONGER SW WINDS ALOFT                
 WHICH MAY CREATE MORE OF A MIX ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KENTUCKY. AS               
 USUAL AT 3 DAYS OUT OR MORE SOME CHANGES IN TRACK CAN BE EXPECTED IF           
 THE TRACK SHIFTS SLIGHTLY FURTHER NORTH THEN MORE MOISTURE MAY BE              
 BROUGHT INTO THE REGION AND BETTER CHANCES FOR MORE SNOW...LIQUID              
 EQUIV CURRENTLY SUGGEST THAT SOUTHERN KY MAY SEE 1 TO 3 INCHES IF NO           
 MIX WERE TO OCCUR...WITH AROUND AN INCH NORTH OF THERE AT THIS TIME.           
 ENOUGH COLD AIR SHOULD BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF             
 THE FORECAST AREA SO A MIX IS VERY UNLIKELY AS FORECAST SOUNDINGS              
 ALOFT NEVER WARM HIGHER THAN -2C DUE TO THE LOW LEVEL JET. HAVE                
 UNDERCUT MOS TEMPS HERE WITH EVAP COOLING AND CLOUDS/PRECIP IN PLACE           
 DURING THE PEAK HEATING HOURS.                                                 
 FRIDAY IS A DIFFERENT STORY WITH RESPECT TO CONFIDENCE...THOUGH THE            
 MODELS HAVE CLOSED SOMEWHAT ON A SOLUTION. STILL MUCH MORE                     
 UNCERTAINTY HERE THAN ON THURSDAY. GFS LOOKS ODD...IF YOU USE THE              
 HIGHER RESOLUTION VERSION SAY 40KM...PULL BACK TO THE 90KM VERSION             
 AND IT LOOKS MUCH LIKE THE 12Z EURO SOLUTION. OVERALL LESSER CHANCES           
 FOR ACCUMS ON FRIDAY BUT STILL A CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW AS A FRONT              
 WILL SWING THRU THE REGION DURING THE MORNING OR AFTERNOON. MODEST             
 FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING SEEN THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON AND STRONG JET            
 STREAK MAY HELP WITH LIFT...ONLY CONCERN LOOKS TO BE MOISTURE SO               
 HAVE LOWERED POPS TO 30 ACROSS THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL START             
 TO TUMBLE FROM FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND AS ARCTIC AIR WORKS ACROSS              
 THE REGION. IF ANY SIGNIFICANT SNOWCOVER EXISTS THEN WE WILL HAVE TO           
 LOWER TEMPERATURES FROM FRIDAY THRU THE EARLY PORTIONS OF NEXT WEEK.           
 SATURDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...                                               
 WILL STAY CLOSE TO THE EURO THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH SOME SUPPORT             
 FROM THE GFS THROUGH THIS PERIOD AS WELL. INDICES (PNA/EPO/AO) STILL           
 SUPPORT THE COLDER AIR TO CONTINUE TO REPLENISH ITSELF THROUGH THE             
 NEXT FEW WEEKS. DEEP LONGWAVE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM HUDSON BAY POLAR             
 VORTEX(PV) ROTATING FROM THE MS VALLEY THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY OVER            
 THE WEEKEND...WITH POSSIBLY THE COLDEST AIR OF THE WINTER TO DATE IN           
 THIS PERIOD. SFC HI PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY INTO             
 SUNDAY...WEAK CLIPPER STILL LOOKS POSSIBLE SUNDAY EVENING INTO EARLY           
 MONDAY BEFORE ANOTHER VERY COLD ARCTIC AIR MASS DROPS INTO THE                 
 CENTRAL US AND INTO THE OHIO VALLEY EARLY NEXT WEEK. AS MENTIONED              
 EARLIER IF AN SNOW COVER ON THE GROUND DURING THIS PERIOD...MAY SEE            
 TEMPS APPROACH ZERO FOR LOWS...WILL NOT ADJUST THAT WAY AS OF                  
 NOW...BUT HAVE TRENDED COLDER THRU THE PERIOD.                                 
 SCHOTT                                                                         
 &&                                                                             
 .LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                            
 KY...NONE.                                                                     
 IN...NONE.                                                                     
 &&                                                                             
 $$                                                                             
</pre> ky                                                                       

 AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                       
 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA                                         
 958 PM CST WED JAN 31 2007                                                     
 .DISCUSSION...                                                                 
 AREAS OF RAIN...POSSIBLY MIXED WITH A FEW IP/S...CONTINUES ACROSS              
 NORTHCENTRAL/NE LA THIS EVENING...MAINLY IN ASSOCIATION OF STRONG              
 ISENTROPIC ASCENT ALONG THE 295-305K SURFACES. HOWEVER...IP THREAT             
 WILL BE SHORT LIVED HERE AS 00Z KSHV RAOB INDICATES THAT WEAK WARM             
 ADVECTION HAS WARMED/MOISTENED THE AIR COLUMN ENOUGH BELOW 9KFT                
 SUCH THAT EVAPORATIVE COOLING IS NO LONGER BECOMING AN ISSUE FOR               
 IP FORMATION. FARTHER N...SN/IP HAS TAPERED THIS EVENING AS                    
 ISENTROPIC FORCING ALONG THE 295K SURFACE HAS SHIFTED E OF THE                 
 REGION. BELIEVE THE REST OF THE NIGHT WILL BE SOMEWHAT                         
 QUIET...UNTIL MAIN SHORTWAVE ENERGY APPROACHES THE REGION FROM THE             
 W...IN ASSOCIATED WITH THE MERGING OF THE BAJA LOW WITH THE NEXT               
 SHORTWAVE ROUNDING THE N STREME JET. NAM/RUC SOUNDINGS INDICATE                
 A WARM NOSE DEVELOPING AROUND 3500FT ACROSS SW/SOUTHCENTRAL AR                 
 /TXK AND ELD/...SUCH THAT FROZEN HYRDROMETEORS WILL MELT ENOUGH                
 FOR A RAIN/IP MIX. HOWEVER...EXPECTING TEMPS TO REMAIN JUST ABOVE              
 FREEZING OVERNIGHT AT TXK...THUS HAVE CANCELLED THE WINTER ADV.                
 FOR BOWIE AND MILLER COUNTIES. ALTHOUGH TEMPS WILL REMAIN NEAR                 
 FREEZING AT ELD. HOWEVER...HAVE ENOUGH CONFIDENCE IN KEEPING A                 
 WINTER WX ADVISORY OUT OF ELD FOR NOW...AS THE WINTRY MIX SHOULD               
 AWAIT UNTIL AFTER 12Z THURSDAY. EVEN FORECATS SOUNDINGS HERE                   
 SUPPORT CONSIDERABLE WARM NOSING AFTER 6Z AND THEREAFTER...SUCH                
 THAT ANY RAIN THAT FALLS THROUGH THE WARMER AIR WILL TEND TO                   
 SLIGHTLY WARM SURFACE TEMPS/DEWPOINTS. HOWEVER...WILL ADDRESS                  
 LEFTOVER WATER/ADDITIONAL LIGHT PRECIP. THAT OCCURS TONIGHT IN AN              
 SPS FOR THIS AREA...AS WELL AS A COUPLE OF N LA PARISHES...AS RAWS             
 REPORTS INDICATE THEM NEAR FREEZING AS WELL.                                   
 ELSEWHERE...FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUPPORT A MIX OF SN/IP MIX LATE                 
 ACROSS RED RIVER...MCCURTAIN...SEVIER AND HOWARD COUNTIES WITH                 
 THE NEXT SHORTWAVE APPROACHING...BUT ADDITIONAL SNOW/ICE                       
 ACCUMULATIONS THROUGH 12Z WILL BE LIGHT. THUS...HAVE OPTED TO                  
 RETAIN THE WINTER ADV. FOR THESE AREAS...AS WELL AS                            
 HEMPSTEAD/NEVADA COUNTIES AS THESE AREAS WILL REMAIN NEAR/BELOW                
 FREEZING. TOUGH CALL IN TERMS OF HOW LONG THESE AREAS WILL SUPPORT             
 FROZEN PRECIP. THURSDAY...AS WARM ADVECTION REGIME                             
 CONTINUES...ALTHOUGH FAR NW COUNTIES MAY SEE MIXED WINTRY PRECIP.              
 FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. WARM ADVECTION MAY CHANGEOVER PRECIP. TO RAIN             
 BY MIDDAY/EARLY AFTERNOON OVER HEMPSTEAD/NEVADA COUNTIES...BUT                 
 WILL LET THE MID SHIFT ADDRESS THIS ISSUE. COULD STILL SEE 1-3" OF             
 SNOW ACROSS N MCCURTAIN COUNTY AND POSSIBLY SEVIER/HOWARD COUNTIES             
 BEFORE THE PRECIP. WANES LATE THURSDAY...WITH ICE ACCUMULATIONS OF             
 ONE TENTH TO ONE QUARTER OF AN INCH ELSEWHERE IN THE ADVISORY                  
 AREA...BUT THIS WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON AMOUNT OF WARMING                  
 /ABOVE FREEZING/ THROUGH THE DAY.                                              
 IN ALL...ADJUSTED POPS TONIGHT DOWN EXCEPT WHERE PRECIP. LINGERS CURRENTLY.    
 ALSO TOOK OUT FROZEN PRECIP. MENTION THURSDAY MORNING ACROSS E TX/N LA         
 S OF I-20...AND MADE MINOR TWEAKS TO THE MIN TEMPS GRIDS TONIGHT...WITH        
 LITTLE CHANGE/SLOW WARMING EXPECTED OVERNIGHT.                                 
 OTHERWISE...REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE. UPDATED                
 FORECAST/WSW ALREADY OUT...SPS WILL BE ISSUED SHORTLY.                         
 15                                                                             
 &&                                                                             
 .AVIATION...                                                                   
 A LARGE AREA OF RAIN MIXED WITH ISOLATED AREAS OF LIGHT SLEET                  
 WILL COVER MUCH OF DEEP EAST TEXAS ACROSS LOWER PARTS OF NORTHWEST             
 LOUISIANA INTO NORTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA AND SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS.                 
 LUCKILY TEMPERATURES WITHIN THIS LARGE AREA REMAIN AND SHOULD REMAIN           
 BELOW FREEZING KEEPING THE PRECIPITATION LIQUID...WITH JUST A FEW              
 SLEET PELLETS. LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION SHOULD ALLOW MOST OF THE               
 MIXED PRECIPITATION TO BECOME MOSTLY RAIN OVER DEEP E TX AND                   
 ACROSS LA BY LATE TONIGHT. THIS RAIN AREA WILL ALSO DECREASE IN                
 AREAL COVERAGE BY 01/12Z. MOST PRECIPITATION HAS ENDED OVER NORTHEAST          
 TEXAS INTO SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA...SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS...AND NORTHWEST             
 LOUISIANA. CEILINGS THIS EVENING HAVE BEEN RANGING FROM AROUND 1 KFT           
 TO 2.5 KFT FOR MUCH OF THE FOUR STATE REGION...WITH CEILINGS ACROSS            
 DEEP EAST TEXAS ACROSS LOWER SECTIONS OF NORTHWEST AND INTO                    
 LOWER NORTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA RANGING FROM NEAR 4 HND TO 8 HND FEET.           
 VISIBILITIES HAVE BEEN GTE 6 STATUE MILES EXCEPT IN THE HEAVIER                
 RAIN AREAS WHERE THEY HAVE LOWERED TO 1 TO 3 STATUE MILES.                     
 AFTER 01/06Z TOWARD 01/12Z EXPECTING ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN TO                  
 RETURN AS A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SLIDES EAST ACROSS THE GULF            
 OF MEXICO AND HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED ALONG THE COAST OF THE CAROLINAS          
 SHIFTS EAST. ANOTHER LOW OVER W TX WILL ADVANCE EAST. ABUNDANT MOISTURE        
 RIDING OVER THE FOUR STATE REGION WILL PRODUCE RAIN AND A WINTERY              
 MIX ESPECIALLY OVER PARTS OF NE TX...SE OK...AND SW AR NEAR AND ALONG          
 THE INTERSTATE 30 CORRIDOR WITH MOSTLY RAIN ALONG AND NEAR THE                 
 INTERSTATE 20 CORRIDOR. AFTER 01/12Z RAIN WILL BE INCREASING AND               
 SPREADING AREA WIDE WITH CEILINGS FROM 4 TO 8 HND FEET. IN THE COLDER          
 AREAS THERE WILL BE A MIX OF SNOW...SLEET...AND WITH EARLY START MIX           
 OF FREEZING RAIN NEAR INTERSTATE 30. /06/                                      
 &&                                                                             
 .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                               
 SHV  35  41  35  45 /  40  90  20  10                                          
 MLU  34  40  36  48 /  80  90  20  10                                          
 DEQ  29  36  28  42 /  50  90  20  10                                          
 TXK  33  37  31  44 /  50  90  20  10                                          
 ELD  32  39  32  46 /  40  90  20  10                                          
 TYR  36  42  34  45 /  50  90  10  10                                          
 GGG  35  43  34  45 /  50  90  10  10                                          
 LFK  39  46  38  50 /  70  90  10  10                                          
 &&                                                                             
 .SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                            
 AR...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM THURSDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING             
      ZONES: HEMPSTEAD...HOWARD...LITTLE RIVER...NEVADA...AND                   
      SEVIER.                                                                   
 LA...NONE.                                                                     
 OK...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM THURSDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING             
      ZONES: MCCURTAIN.                                                         
 TX...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM THURSDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING             
      ZONES: RED RIVER.                                                         
 &&                                                                             
 $$                                                                             
 15/06                                                                          
</pre> la                                                                       

 AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                       
 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA                                         
 208 PM EST TUE JAN 30 2007                                                     
 .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...                                     
 RUC AND NAM-WRF SHOW THAT THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE                   
 CLIPPER-TYPE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL HAVE MOVED THROUGH THE UPPER             
 OHIO VALLEY BY EVENING. HENCE, TONIGHT THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY WILL BE           
 MAINLY AFFECTED BY POSTFRONTAL COLD-ADVECTION LIFT/INSTABILITY AND             
 LAKE-ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS. THIS WILL GENERATE SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ON           
 THE ORDER OF AN INCH FOR MOST PLACES, BUT AS MUCH AS 3 INCHES NEAR             
 THE MOUNTAINS AND ALONG THE INTERSTATE 80 CORRIDOR.                            
 BASED ON NAM-WRF FORECAST SOUNDINGS, EXPECT THE UNSTABLE BOUNDARY              
 LAYER TO SHRINK TO A HEIGHT OF LESS THAN 6 KFT AGL AFTER MIDNIGHT.             
 THEREFORE, THE PRECIPITATION WILL DIMINISH TO MAINLY FLURRIES BY               
 WEDNESDAY DAYTIME. SO WILL KEEP ENDING TIME OF CURRENT SNOW/LAKE               
 SNOW ADVISORIES AS IS.                                                         
 FOR TEMPERATURES, WILL KEEP WITH RECENT NAM AND GFS MOS VALUES.                
 WINDS WILL BE MAINLY WESTERLY INTO WEDNESDAY AT 10 TO 15 MPH, ALBEIT           
 SOME GUSTS CAN BRIEFLY REACH 20-25 MPH.                                        
 &&                                                                             
 .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...                                
 RECENT GFS AND ECMWF MODEL RUNS SHOW LITTLE CHANGE IN THE CURRENT              
 UPPER FLOW PATTERN OVER NORTH AMERICA OVER THE NEXT WEEK, AND                  
 PERHAPS INTO MID FEBRUARY, WITH A CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER EASTERN                
 CANADA PROVIDING A CYCLONIC NORTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES              
 AND UPPER OHIO VALLEY. SO THE CURRENT EPISODE OF COLDER THAN NORMAL            
 TEMPERATURES AND ACCOMPANYING CLIPPER-RELATED PERIODS OF LIGHT BUT             
 PESKY SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE THE RULE INTO NEXT WEEK. IT DOES APPEAR             
 THE START OF NEXT WEEK WILL BE COLDER THAN THIS WEEK AS 850MB                  
 TEMPERATURES WILL BE FREQUENTLY COLDER THAN M20C AND SURFACE                   
 TEMPERATURES WILL BE MAINLY IN THE ZERO TO 15 ABOVE RANGE AS                   
 INDICATED BY RECENT HPC GUIDANCE AND GFS MOS VALUES.                           
 &&                                                                             
 .AVIATION /19Z-18Z/...                                                         
 COLD FRONT IS CROSSING PITTSBURGH AT THE MOMENT BRINGING A BAND OF             
 HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS. SNOW SHOWERS ARE KEEPING CONDITIONS IN THE IFR           
 RANGE WITH VISIBILITIES AROUND 2SM OR LOWER. CEILINGS ARE GENERALLY            
 MVFR RANGING FROM 1000 TO 2000 FEET. THESE CONDITIONS SHOULD                   
 CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT EXCEPT FOR THE VISIBILITIES IMPROVING TO            
 MVFR OR VFR OVERNIGHT AS THE SNOW SHOWERS MOVE IN AND OUT OF THE               
 AIRPORT AREAS AND DECREASE IN COVERAGE BY DAYTIME WEDNESDAY.                   
 &&                                                                             
 .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                            
 MD...SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR MDZ001.                        
 OH...NONE.                                                                     
 PA...SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR PAZ030-032.                    
      LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR                    
      PAZ007>009.                                                               
 WV...SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR WVZ023-041.                    
 &&                                                                             
 $$                                                                             
 66/11/66/                                                                      
</pre> md                                                                       

 AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                             
 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC                            
 1248 PM EST TUE JAN 30 2007                                                    
 .MARINE...                                                                     
 WNDS ABV SCA CRITERIA AT TPLM2...AND GUSTS ARND 20 KT REPORTED AT              
 ERN MTR SITES. SEEMS THO SUFFICIENT MIXING TAKING PLACE IN SPITE               
 OF IMPENDING CLDCVR AND COLD WATER. WL RAISE FLAGS NOW...AND FIRE              
 OFF A QUICK MARINE UPDT.                                                       
 &&                                                                             
 .AVIATION /18Z-18Z/...                                                         
 VFR CONDS WL PREVAIL...W/ CHC -SHSN ALL SITES XCPT CHO LT AFTN                 
 INVOF FROPA. SHUD HV LTL TO NO VSBY RESTRICTIONS...AND THUS NO                 
 OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLY FLOW /G20 KT/ WL VEER NW BY 00Z. HIER                  
 GUSTS PROBABLE...SPCLY RIGHT BHD FROPA.                                        
 &&                                                                             
 .PREV DISCUSSION...                                                            
 /ISSUED 1005 AM EST TUE JAN 30 2007/                                           
 SHORT TERM /REST OF TODAY/...                                                  
 VORT MAX CNTRD IN SRN OH ATTM PER VAPOR LOOP. RGNL RADARS DEPICT               
 SHSN HAS SPREAD E OF THAT TO THE WRN RDGS OF CWFA. AFTR GLANCING               
 AT 12Z RUNS OF RUC AND NAM...IT APPRS THAT MOST OF THE DEEP MSTR               
 WL BE CONFINED TO THOSE RDGS. TRACK OF SHEARED VORT WL BE W-E ACRS             
 CWFA...PASSING NEAR OF JUST N OF DC. SFC REFLECTION WL CROSS PA...             
 WELL N OF US. THUS...DONT HV MUCH HOPE THAT SNW WL FALL E OF FVRD              
 UPSLOPE TRRN. GOING FCST CVRS THAT. WL HOLD ONTO SNW ADVY AREA AS              
 THESE ZNS CARRY HIEST RISK. AM A LTL CONCERNED THAT MAXT MAY BE A              
 CPL TICKS TOO HIGH PER MRNG RAOBS. BUT DUE TO AMPLE SUN ATTM AND               
 BRIEF PD OF SW FLOW AHD OF S/WV...WL LV THAT AS IS ALSO. THUS...HV             
 TOUCHED UP A FEW GRIDS...BUT NO UPDT TO TXT PRODUCTS XPCTD ATTM.               
 AVIATION /15Z-12Z/...                                                          
 VFR CONDS THRU PD...W/ 5000 FT CIGS LT TAFTN-ELY EVE. MAYBE A                  
 PD OF FLURRIES AT MRB AS CLIPPER PASSES N OF AREA. CUD EVEN BE A               
 FLURRY OR TWO DC-BALT AREA AIRPORTS...BUT RISK TOO SLIM FOR TAF                
 MNTN. SHUD HV NO IMPACT TO OPS.                                                
 MARINE...                                                                      
 LGT SLY FLOW AHD OF CLIPPER SYSTM. WNDS WL VEER NW AND PICK UP                 
 TNGT IN WAKE OF SYSTM. WL HOLD ONTO SCA HEADLINE FOR TNGT.                     
 PREV DISCUSSION...                                                             
 /ISSUED 320 AM EST TUE JAN 30 2007/                                            
 SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...                                    
 A BIT OF A COMPLEX FORECAST WITH SOME CONFLICTING INFO FROM THE                
 MODELS ABOUT A CLIPPER COMING THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. THE SFC LOW              
 WAS MOVING THRU THE MIDWEST EARLY THIS MORNING AND PRESSING EAST. IT           
 WILL BE SLOWLY STRENGTHENING AS IT MOVES THROUGH OUR AREA AND OUT              
 OVER THE OCEAN. THE VORT ASSOCIATED WITH IT IS SHEARED VORTICITY               
 MOVING ACROSS THE MID ATL AND NOT A STRONG PACKET SO NOT IMPRESSED             
 WITH SNOWFALL POTENTIAL EAST OF THE MTNS. THERE IS SOME FN VECTR               
 CONVERGENCE BETWEEN 700 AND 500MB THAT EXTENDS S FROM THE VORT                 
 MOVING THROUGH LIKE A COLD FRONT DURING THE AFTERNOON. THAT IS ONE             
 INDICATOR THAT A SMALL SNOW BAND COULD MOVE THROUGH IN THE                     
 AFTERNOON. HOWEVER WITH THE SHEARED VORT THAT MOVES EAST THRU DC...            
 THE BEST CHC WOULD BE N OF THAT AND WITH THE SHEARED NATURE OF THE             
 SYSTEM... A SLIM CHC EVEN THERE. ALSO HIGH TEMPS TODAY ARE FORECAST            
 ABOVE FREEZING EXCEPT FOR AT ELEVATION... AND CURRENT RADAR EXTENT             
 OF THE SYSTEM IS LIMITED. PUT ALL OF THAT TOGETHER AND THE BEST CHC            
 IS THAT NO MEASURABLE SNOW MAKES IT EAST OF THE MTNS. THERE IS                 
 AROUND A 30 PERCENT CHC FOR A DUSTING FOR THE N TIER OF MD... AND AN           
 EVEN SMALLER 10-20 PERCENT CHC OF A DUSTING SOUTH OF THAT.                     
 ONCE THE CLIPPER ROLLS THRU... SKIES CLEAR OUT AGAIN AND NW WINDS              
 KICK UP AGAIN BRINGING COLD TEMPS AROUND 20 FOR MANY BY WED MORNING            
 WITH WIND CHILLS BACK DOWN AROUND ZERO IN THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS AND            
 IN THE TEENS AND SINGLE DIGITS FOR THE REST.                                   
 IN THE WESTERN UPSLOPE AREAS OF W GRANT W MINERAL AND W ALLEGANY               
 COUNTIES THERE WILL BE A SNOW ADV ISSUED FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND                
 OVERNIGHT. 1 TO 3 INCHES WILL LIKELY PILE UP AGAIN AS SNOW SHOWERS             
 RETURN.                                                                        
 AVIATION /09Z-12Z/...                                                          
 VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THRU THE TAF PERIOD FOR THE MOST PART. MAY             
 BRIEFLY TOUCH MVFR CONDTIONS WHEN THE CLIPPER ACTUALLY MOVES THRU IN           
 THE AFTERNOON... BUT BETTER CHC THAT IT WILL REMAIN VFR. SW WINDS              
 WILL FLIP TO NW AND BECOME GUSTY AGAIN THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT.               
 SNOW SHOWERS IN THE MOUNTAINS WILL BE REFLECTED IN THE TWEBS. THERE            
 IS A SLIGHT CHC OF A CONVECTIVE BAND OF SNOW SHOWERS DEVELOPING                
 ALONG THE CLIPPER...BUT AGAIN A BETTER CHC THAT SNOW SHOWERS WILL              
 NOT MAKE IT EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS.                                             
 MARINE...                                                                      
 AFTER THE CLIPPER LOW MOVES THRU AND STRENGTHENS A LITTLE BIT WINDS            
 WILL KICK UP ONCE AGAIN AND A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN PLACE FOR             
 9 PM TONIGHT THROUGH 10 AM WEDNESDAY.                                          
 SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS THIS WEEKEND IN THE WAKE OF THE LOW            
 PRESSURE SYSTEM AFFECTING THE WATERS THURSDAY NIGHT.                           
 LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...                                        
 BUSY MEDIUM RANGE FORECAST WITH A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MAKING ITS WAY           
 FROM THE CENTRAL GULF COAST NORTHEAST ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES           
 THURSDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUSH THIS SYSTEM OUT TO SEA FOR             
 THE WEEKEND...PROVIDING COOL AND DRY CONDITIONS FOR MOST LOCATIONS             
 THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE                  
 CONTINUED CHANCES FOR UPSLOPE SHOWERS WEST OF THE ALLEGANY FRONT.              
 MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE IS WITH THE SOUTHERN STREAM LOW APPROACHING            
 THURSDAY. MODELS CONTINUE THEIR INCONSISTENCIES WITH THIS SYSTEM               
 FROM TIMING AND LOCATION TO PRECIPITATION TYPE. WHILE THE TRACK OF             
 THE ACTUAL LOW IS STILL UNCERTAIN...BUT GUIDANCE COMES BACK IN LINE            
 WITH THE LOW PLACED OFF THE NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC COAST FRIDAY                 
 MORNING AT 12Z. THE ECMWF IS THE FASTER MODEL WHILE THE NAM IS THE             
 SLOWEST AND THE GFS IN BETWEEN. TOOK A BLEND OF THE THREE USING THE            
 GFS. WHILE EARLIER RUNS BROUGHT PRECIPITATION IN FASTER...GUIDANCE             
 HAS SINCE BACKED OFF. EXPECT PRECIPITATION TO SPREAD NORTHEAST                 
 ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY AFTERNOON...WITH HIGHEST POPS MOST           
 LIKELY THURSDAY NIGHT. PRECIPITATION TYPES WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE            
 INTERESTING TO WATCH OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. WITH THE VARYING                
 TRACKS OF THE LOW...TYPE FORECASTING HAS BEEN MORE OF A CHALLENGE.             
 USING HPC GUIDANCE AND BUFKIT MODEL SOUNDINGS...A CHANGE OVER FROM             
 SNOW TO FREEZING RAIN IS A POSSIBILITY ACROSS THE CENTRAL FORECAST             
 AREA...AND SWITCHING FROM SNOW TO RAIN IN THE FAR NORTHEAST. HAVE              
 ADDED THE MENTION OF SNOW AND FREEZING RAIN TO THE GRIDS FOR                   
 WASHINGTON DC WEST TO THE BLUE RIDGE AND SOUTH THROUGH THE                     
 SHENANDOAH VALLEY...WITH A RAIN AND SNOW MIX ACROSS BALTIMORE.                 
 CONFIDENCE WITH PRECIPITATION TYPE IS LOW GIVEN VARIANCE OF RECENT             
 MODEL RUNS...SO THIS WILL MOST LIKELY CHANGE OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 48            
 HOURS.                                                                         
 &&                                                                             
 .LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                            
 DC...NONE.                                                                     
 MD...SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR MDZ501.                        
 VA...NONE.                                                                     
 WV...SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR WVZ501-503.                    
 MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR                    
 ANZ530>537.                                                                    
 &&                                                                             
 $$                                                                             
 UPDATES...HTS                                                                  
 ORIGINAL DISCUSSION...STRONG/SAR                                               
</pre> md                                                                       

 AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                       
 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC                            
 1005 AM EST TUE JAN 30 2007                                                    
 .SHORT TERM /REST OF TODAY/...                                                 
 VORT MAX CNTRD IN SRN OH ATTM PER VAPOR LOOP. RGNL RADARS DEPICT               
 SHSN HAS SPREAD E OF THAT TO THE WRN RDGS OF CWFA. AFTR GLANCING               
 AT 12Z RUNS OF RUC AND NAM...IT APPRS THAT MOST OF THE DEEP MSTR               
 WL BE CONFINED TO THOSE RDGS. TRACK OF SHEARED VORT WL BE W-E ACRS             
 CWFA...PASSING NEAR OF JUST N OF DC. SFC REFLECTION WL CROSS PA...             
 WELL N OF US. THUS...DONT HV MUCH HOPE THAT SNW WL FALL E OF FVRD              
 UPSLOPE TRRN. GOING FCST CVRS THAT. WL HOLD ONTO SNW ADVY AREA AS              
 THESE ZNS CARRY HIEST RISK. AM A LTL CONCERNED THAT MAXT MAY BE A              
 CPL TICKS TOO HIGH PER MRNG RAOBS. BUT DUE TO AMPLE SUN ATTM AND               
 BRIEF PD OF SW FLOW AHD OF S/WV...WL LV THAT AS IS ALSO. THUS...HV             
 TOUCHED UP A FEW GRIDS...BUT NO UPDT TO TXT PRODUCTS XPCTD ATTM.               
 &&                                                                             
 .AVIATION /15Z-12Z/...                                                         
 VFR CONDS THRU PD...W/ 5000 FT CIGS LT TAFTN-ELY EVE. MAYBE A                  
 PD OF FLURRIES AT MRB AS CLIPPER PASSES N OF AREA. CUD EVEN BE A               
 FLURRY OR TWO DC-BALT AREA AIRPORTS...BUT RISK TOO SLIM FOR TAF                
 MNTN. SHUD HV NO IMPACT TO OPS.                                                
 &&                                                                             
 .MARINE...                                                                     
 LGT SLY FLOW AHD OF CLIPPER SYSTM. WNDS WL VEER NW AND PICK UP                 
 TNGT IN WAKE OF SYSTM. WL HOLD ONTO SCA HEADLINE FOR TNGT.                     
 &&                                                                             
 .PREV DISCUSSION...                                                            
 /ISSUED 320 AM EST TUE JAN 30 2007/                                            
 SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...                                    
 A BIT OF A COMPLEX FORECAST WITH SOME CONFLICTING INFO FROM THE                
 MODELS ABOUT A CLIPPER COMING THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. THE SFC LOW              
 WAS MOVING THRU THE MIDWEST EARLY THIS MORNING AND PRESSING EAST. IT           
 WILL BE SLOWLY STRENGTHENING AS IT MOVES THROUGH OUR AREA AND OUT              
 OVER THE OCEAN. THE VORT ASSOCIATED WITH IT IS SHEARED VORTICITY               
 MOVING ACROSS THE MID ATL AND NOT A STRONG PACKET SO NOT IMPRESSED             
 WITH SNOWFALL POTENTIAL EAST OF THE MTNS. THERE IS SOME FN VECTR               
 CONVERGENCE BETWEEN 700 AND 500MB THAT EXTENDS S FROM THE VORT                 
 MOVING THROUGH LIKE A COLD FRONT DURING THE AFTERNOON. THAT IS ONE             
 INDICATOR THAT A SMALL SNOW BAND COULD MOVE THROUGH IN THE                     
 AFTERNOON. HOWEVER WITH THE SHEARED VORT THAT MOVES EAST THRU DC...            
 THE BEST CHC WOULD BE N OF THAT AND WITH THE SHEARED NATURE OF THE             
 SYSTEM... A SLIM CHC EVEN THERE. ALSO HIGH TEMPS TODAY ARE FORECAST            
 ABOVE FREEZING EXCEPT FOR AT ELEVATION... AND CURRENT RADAR EXTENT             
 OF THE SYSTEM IS LIMITED. PUT ALL OF THAT TOGETHER AND THE BEST CHC            
 IS THAT NO MEASURABLE SNOW MAKES IT EAST OF THE MTNS. THERE IS                 
 AROUND A 30 PERCENT CHC FOR A DUSTING FOR THE N TIER OF MD... AND AN           
 EVEN SMALLER 10-20 PERCENT CHC OF A DUSTING SOUTH OF THAT.                     
 ONCE THE CLIPPER ROLLS THRU... SKIES CLEAR OUT AGAIN AND NW WINDS              
 KICK UP AGAIN BRINGING COLD TEMPS AROUND 20 FOR MANY BY WED MORNING            
 WITH WIND CHILLS BACK DOWN AROUND ZERO IN THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS AND            
 IN THE TEENS AND SINGLE DIGITS FOR THE REST.                                   
 IN THE WESTERN UPSLOPE AREAS OF W GRANT W MINERAL AND W ALLEGANY               
 COUNTIES THERE WILL BE A SNOW ADV ISSUED FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND                
 OVERNIGHT. 1 TO 3 INCHES WILL LIKELY PILE UP AGAIN AS SNOW SHOWERS             
 RETURN.                                                                        
 AVIATION /09Z-12Z/...                                                          
 VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THRU THE TAF PERIOD FOR THE MOST PART. MAY             
 BRIEFLY TOUCH MVFR CONDTIONS WHEN THE CLIPPER ACTUALLY MOVES THRU IN           
 THE AFTERNOON... BUT BETTER CHC THAT IT WILL REMAIN VFR. SW WINDS              
 WILL FLIP TO NW AND BECOME GUSTY AGAIN THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT.               
 SNOW SHOWERS IN THE MOUNTAINS WILL BE REFLECTED IN THE TWEBS. THERE            
 IS A SLIGHT CHC OF A CONVECTIVE BAND OF SNOW SHOWERS DEVELOPING                
 ALONG THE CLIPPER...BUT AGAIN A BETTER CHC THAT SNOW SHOWERS WILL              
 NOT MAKE IT EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS.                                             
 MARINE...                                                                      
 AFTER THE CLIPPER LOW MOVES THRU AND STRENGTHENS A LITTLE BIT WINDS            
 WILL KICK UP ONCE AGAIN AND A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN PLACE FOR             
 9 PM TONIGHT THROUGH 10 AM WEDNESDAY.                                          
 SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS THIS WEEKEND IN THE WAKE OF THE LOW            
 PRESSURE SYSTEM AFFECTING THE WATERS THURSDAY NIGHT.                           
 LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...                                        
 BUSY MEDIUM RANGE FORECAST WITH A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MAKING ITS WAY           
 FROM THE CENTRAL GULF COAST NORTHEAST ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES           
 THURSDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUSH THIS SYSTEM OUT TO SEA FOR             
 THE WEEKEND...PROVIDING COOL AND DRY CONDITIONS FOR MOST LOCATIONS             
 THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE                  
 CONTINUED CHANCES FOR UPSLOPE SHOWERS WEST OF THE ALLEGANY FRONT.              
 MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE IS WITH THE SOUTHERN STREAM LOW APPROACHING            
 THURSDAY. MODELS CONTINUE THEIR INCONSISTENCIES WITH THIS SYSTEM               
 FROM TIMING AND LOCATION TO PRECIPITATION TYPE. WHILE THE TRACK OF             
 THE ACTUAL LOW IS STILL UNCERTAIN...BUT GUIDANCE COMES BACK IN LINE            
 WITH THE LOW PLACED OFF THE NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC COAST FRIDAY                 
 MORNING AT 12Z. THE ECMWF IS THE FASTER MODEL WHILE THE NAM IS THE             
 SLOWEST AND THE GFS IN BETWEEN. TOOK A BLEND OF THE THREE USING THE            
 GFS. WHILE EARLIER RUNS BROUGHT PRECIPITATION IN FASTER...GUIDANCE             
 HAS SINCE BACKED OFF. EXPECT PRECIPITATION TO SPREAD NORTHEAST                 
 ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY AFTERNOON...WITH HIGHEST POPS MOST           
 LIKELY THURSDAY NIGHT. PRECIPITATION TYPES WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE            
 INTERESTING TO WATCH OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. WITH THE VARYING                
 TRACKS OF THE LOW...TYPE FORECASTING HAS BEEN MORE OF A CHALLENGE.             
 USING HPC GUIDANCE AND BUFKIT MODEL SOUNDINGS...A CHANGE OVER FROM             
 SNOW TO FREEZING RAIN IS A POSSIBILITY ACROSS THE CENTRAL FORECAST             
 AREA...AND SWITCHING FROM SNOW TO RAIN IN THE FAR NORTHEAST. HAVE              
 ADDED THE MENTION OF SNOW AND FREEZING RAIN TO THE GRIDS FOR                   
 WASHINGTON DC WEST TO THE BLUE RIDGE AND SOUTH THROUGH THE                     
 SHENANDOAH VALLEY...WITH A RAIN AND SNOW MIX ACROSS BALTIMORE.                 
 CONFIDENCE WITH PRECIPITATION TYPE IS LOW GIVEN VARIANCE OF RECENT             
 MODEL RUNS...SO THIS WILL MOST LIKELY CHANGE OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 48            
 HOURS.                                                                         
 &&                                                                             
 .LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                            
 DC...NONE.                                                                     
 MD...SNOW ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 AM EST WEDNESDAY              
      FOR MDZ501.                                                               
 VA...NONE.                                                                     
 WV...SNOW ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 AM EST WEDNESDAY              
      FOR WVZ501-503.                                                           
 MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EST              
      WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ530>537.                                                 
 &&                                                                             
 $$                                                                             
 PREV DISCUSSION...STRONG/SAR                                                   
 UPDATED SHORT TERM/AVIATION/MARINE...HTS                                       
</pre> md                                                                       

 AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                       
 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI                                    
 651 PM EST WED JAN 31 2007                                                     
 .AVIATION...                                                                   
 MID AND HIGH CLOUDS FORESEEN FOR MOST OF THE NIGHT...WITH THE MID              
 CLOUDS THICKENING/LOWERING WITH TIME AS PER MODEL SOUNDINGS AND                
 MOISTURE TIME SECTIONS. TOWARD DAYBREAK AT KMBS AND EARLY FORENOON             
 AT THE OTHER SITES...EXPECT LOWERING CEILINGS INTO MVFR AS DEARTH              
 OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ENDS...WITH THE NORTH AIDED BY TRAJECTORY                
 OFF OF LAKE MICHIGAN. NEARLY ADIABATIC LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES                   
 DEVELOPING THURSDAY AS COLD TEMPERATURES ALOFT PROMOTE EXPECT                  
 DIURNAL BOOST FOR SNOW SHOWERS. TAFS ARE INDICATING A PROB30 GROUP             
 BETWEEN 17Z TO 21Z OR 18Z TO 22Z FOR MVFR IN SNOW SHOWERS. NOT                 
 ENOUGH CONFIDENCE IN POTENTIAL TONIGHT TO MENTION ANY                          
 PRECIPITATION...AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE SPARSE.                          
 &&                                                                             
 .PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 434 PM EST WED JAN 31 2007                           
 SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND THURSDAY                                              
 OVERNIGHT LOWS LIKELY TO OCCUR SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET...ESPECIALLY               
 ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA WHERE CURRENT TEMPS REMAIN            
 IN THE TEENS...15 AT ADRIAN. THUS...LOWEST OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE                  
 EXPECTED IN THAT AREA. THEN TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO LEVEL OFF AND                
 POSSIBLY CLIMB A LITTLE OVERNIGHT UNDER A WEAK WARM AIR ADVECTION              
 REGIME. THE POTENTIAL FOR SCATTERED LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ARRIVES                 
 AFTER MIDNIGHT AND WILL EXIST THROUGH THURSDAY. LIMITED MOISTURE               
 AND A WEAKENING SYSTEM WILL KEEP SNOW SHOWERS ON THE LIGHT SIDE                
 WITH LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATION EXPECTED. THE SAGINAW VALLEY STANDS             
 TO SEE THE BEST ACTIVITY AS THAT IS THE FAVORED AREA FOR LAKE LAKE             
 ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS WITHIN SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW REGIME.                        
 LATEST RUC ANALYSIS/SATELLITE DATA SUPPORTS THE MODELS CONSISTENT              
 FORECAST OF THE SHORT WAVE SHEARING OUT WITHIN CONFLUENT FLOW ALOFT            
 OVER THE GREAT LAKES EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. UPPER                             
 DIVERGENCE...WITHIN RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF DEPARTING JET STREAK...           
 WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF EXTRA LIFT OVERNIGHT...MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTH           
 HALF OF THE CWA. MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT THE VERY DRY 900 TO             
 700 MB COLUMN OF AIR WILL THEN MOISTEN UP CONSIDERABLY DURING THE              
 EARLY MORNING HOURS. BUT WITH VERY LITTLE INSTABILITY AND LACK OF              
 LOW LEVEL SUPPORT...ANY SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD REMAIN ON THE TAME                 
 SIDE.                                                                          
 BY THE TIME BETTER LOW LEVEL SUPPORT ARRIVES ON THURSDAY...THE MID             
 AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO STRIP AWAY AS THE UPPER                 
 SUPPORT BECOMES SHEARED OUT. HOWEVER WITH INVERSION HEIGHTS AROUND             
 800 MB ON THURSDAY NORTH OF DETROIT...LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS CANNOT            
 BE RULED OUT.                                                                  
 LONG TERM...                                                                   
 THE PLAINS WAVE WILL HAVE SHEARED TO OUR EAST BY THURSDAY NIGHT                
 LEAVING ONLY A CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES UNTIL THE              
 NEXT SYSTEM ARRIVES FROM CENTRAL CANADA ON FRIDAY. THIS FEATURE                
 LOOKS TO BE HANDLED WELL JUDGING FROM SATELLITE IMAGERY TODAY BUT IT           
 IS HARD TO GET EXCITED ABOUT THE PROSPECTS FOR SNOW AS IT MOVES                
 THROUGH OUR AREA FRIDAY AFTERNOON. MID LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE AT A             
 PREMIUM AS THE WAVE WILL BE CUT OFF FROM BOTH GULF AND PACIFIC                 
 MOISTURE SOURCES. HOWEVER, A BOOST FROM LAKE MICHIGAN LOOKS                    
 REASONABLE AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH LOWER MICHIGAN FRIDAY               
 AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THIS IS WORTH CHANCE/SCATTERED POPS FOR SNOW            
 SHOWERS.                                                                       
 OUR FIRST SURGE OF ARCTIC AIR WILL ARRIVE BEHIND THIS SYSTEM FRIDAY            
 NIGHT. THE 12Z MODELS ALL SHOW 850 MB TEMPS DROPPING TO AROUND -20C            
 BY SUNRISE SATURDAY MORNING. A SW COMPONENT TO THE WIND WILL                   
 INITIALLY HELP WITH SINGLE DIGIT LOW TEMPERATURES, DESPITE SOME                
 CLOUD COVER, AS COLDER SURFACE AIR FLOWS AROUND THE SOUTH END OF               
 LAKE MICHIGAN AND INTO OUR AREA. HOWEVER, THIS SAME SW FLOW WILL               
 STRENGTHEN AND ADVECT SOMEWHAT WARMER AIR INTO THE REGION AS THE               
 SURFACE HIGH DRIFTS EAST AND AHEAD OF THE NEXT WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE            
 SCHEDULED TO ARRIVE ON SATURDAY. IN THIS REGARD, GUIDANCE                      
 TEMPERATURES CALLING FOR HIGHS IN THE TEENS LOOK OK BUT THESE                  
 READINGS WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY A 10 TO 20 MPH WIND AND WIND CHILLS            
 NEAR 10 BELOW ZERO.                                                            
 THERE ARE SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES IN THE 12Z MODELS ON THE HANDLING            
 OF THE SATURDAY WAVE. PREFER THE FASTER SOLUTIONS, OF WHICH THE GFS            
 IS ONE, AS RENEWED HEIGHT FALLS GET UNDERWAY IN CENTRAL CANADA AND             
 ANCHOR THE POLAR VORTEX OVER NORTHERN ONTARIO. THIS SYSTEM WILL                
 BRING OUR BEST CHANCE OF SNOW DURING THE WEEKEND AND REPLENISH THE             
 ARCTIC AIR MASS SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. THIS WILL BE THE MOST               
 BRUTAL PORTION OF THE COLD OUTBREAK WHEN FACTORING IN BOTH                     
 TEMPERATURE AND WIND TAKING WIND CHILL TO AROUND -20F. THE GFS                 
 FORECASTS 850 MB TEMPS TO DROP DOWN NEAR -28C WHICH CORRESPONDS TO             
 DAYTIME TEMPERATURES NO BETTER THAN THE SINGLE DIGITS ON SUNDAY. IN            
 FACT, DAYTIME TEMPERATURES TODAY IN REGIONS OF NORTHERN CANADA SHOW            
 A FEW READINGS STILL BELOW ZERO WITH SIMILAR 850 MB TEMPERATURES. IN           
 ADDITION, THERE WILL LIKELY BE CONSIDERABLY MORE OF A SURFACE                  
 PRESSURE TROUGH IN THE LEE OF LAKE MICHIGAN WHICH WILL DIRECT A SW             
 FLOW OF LESS MODIFIED AIR INTO SE MICHIGAN. THE LAST TIME METRO                
 DETROIT HAD AT LEAST TWO CONSECUTIVE DAYS OF SINGLE DIGIT HIGH                 
 TEMPERATURES WAS IN JANUARY 1994.                                              
 VERY LITTLE TEMPERATURE MODERATION IS EXPECTED ON MONDAY AS THE CORE           
 OF THE POLAR VORTEX MOVES OVER THE GREAT LAKES. THE GLOBAL MODELS DO           
 SHOW THE VORTEX MOVING EAST BY TUESDAY BUT DEEP NW FLOW WILL                   
 CONTINUE THE SUPPLY OF ARCTIC AIR THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.             
 SOME MODERATION IS POSSIBLE ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS THE WIND               
 BACKS TOWARD THE WEST AND NORTHWEST, PREVENTING THE LESS MODIFIED              
 AIR FROM MOVING INTO THE REGION.                                               
 &&                                                                             
 .DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                            
 MI...NONE.                                                                     
 LAKE HURON...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...LHZ421...NEARSHORE WATERS FROM             
              PORT AUSTIN TO PORT HURON...UNTIL 3 PM THURSDAY.                  
              SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS...LHZ422...                        
              UNTIL 10 AM THURSDAY.                                             
 LAKE ST CLAIR...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS...UNTIL 10 AM                   
                 THURSDAY.                                                      
 MI WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS...                     
 &&                                                                             
 $$                                                                             
 AVIATION...DWD                                                                 
 SHORT TERM...JDS                                                               
 LONG TERM....BT                                                                
 YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE           
 AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).                                   
</pre> mi                                                                       

 AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                       
 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI                                    
 434 PM EST WED JAN 31 2007                                                     
 .SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND THURSDAY                                             
 OVERNIGHT LOWS LIKELY TO OCCUR SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET...ESPECIALLY               
 ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA WHERE CURRENT TEMPS REMAIN            
 IN THE TEENS...15 AT ADRIAN. THUS...LOWEST OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE                  
 EXPECTED IN THAT AREA. THEN TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO LEVEL OFF AND                
 POSSIBLY CLIMB A LITTLE OVERNIGHT UNDER A WEAK WARM AIR ADVECTION              
 REGIME. THE POTENTIAL FOR SCATTERED LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ARRIVES                 
 AFTER MIDNIGHT AND WILL EXIST THROUGH THURSDAY. LIMITED MOISTURE               
 AND A WEAKENING SYSTEM WILL KEEP SNOW SHOWERS ON THE LIGHT SIDE                
 WITH LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATION EXPECTED. THE SAGINAW VALLEY STANDS             
 TO SEE THE BEST ACTIVITY AS THAT IS THE FAVORED AREA FOR LAKE LAKE             
 ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS WITHIN SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW REGIME.                        
 LATEST RUC ANALYSIS/SATELLITE DATA SUPPORTS THE MODELS CONSISTENT              
 FORECAST OF THE SHORT WAVE SHEARING OUT WITHIN CONFLUENT FLOW ALOFT            
 OVER THE GREAT LAKES EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. UPPER                             
 DIVERGENCE...WITHIN RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF DEPARTING JET STREAK...           
 WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF EXTRA LIFT OVERNIGHT...MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTH           
 HALF OF THE CWA. MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT THE VERY DRY 900 TO             
 700 MB COLUMN OF AIR WILL THEN MOISTEN UP CONSIDERABLY DURING THE              
 EARLY MORNING HOURS. BUT WITH VERY LITTLE INSTABILITY AND LACK OF              
 LOW LEVEL SUPPORT...ANY SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD REMAIN ON THE TAME                 
 SIDE.                                                                          
 BY THE TIME BETTER LOW LEVEL SUPPORT ARRIVES ON THURSDAY...THE MID             
 AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO STRIP AWAY AS THE UPPER                 
 SUPPORT BECOMES SHEARED OUT. HOWEVER WITH INVERSION HEIGHTS AROUND             
 800 MB ON THURSDAY NORTH OF DETROIT...LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS CANNOT            
 BE RULED OUT.                                                                  
 &&                                                                             
 .LONG TERM...THE PLAINS WAVE WILL HAVE SHEARED TO OUR EAST BY THURSDAY NIGHT   
 LEAVING ONLY A CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES UNTIL THE              
 NEXT SYSTEM ARRIVES FROM CENTRAL CANADA ON FRIDAY. THIS FEATURE                
 LOOKS TO BE HANDLED WELL JUDGING FROM SATELLITE IMAGERY TODAY BUT IT           
 IS HARD TO GET EXCITED ABOUT THE PROSPECTS FOR SNOW AS IT MOVES                
 THROUGH OUR AREA FRIDAY AFTERNOON. MID LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE AT A             
 PREMIUM AS THE WAVE WILL BE CUT OFF FROM BOTH GULF AND PACIFIC                 
 MOISTURE SOURCES. HOWEVER, A BOOST FROM LAKE MICHIGAN LOOKS                    
 REASONABLE AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH LOWER MICHIGAN FRIDAY               
 AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THIS IS WORTH CHANCE/SCATTERED POPS FOR SNOW            
 SHOWERS.                                                                       
 OUR FIRST SURGE OF ARCTIC AIR WILL ARRIVE BEHIND THIS SYSTEM FRIDAY            
 NIGHT. THE 12Z MODELS ALL SHOW 850 MB TEMPS DROPPING TO AROUND -20C            
 BY SUNRISE SATURDAY MORNING. A SW COMPONENT TO THE WIND WILL                   
 INITIALLY HELP WITH SINGLE DIGIT LOW TEMPERATURES, DESPITE SOME                
 CLOUD COVER, AS COLDER SURFACE AIR FLOWS AROUND THE SOUTH END OF               
 LAKE MICHIGAN AND INTO OUR AREA. HOWEVER, THIS SAME SW FLOW WILL               
 STRENGTHEN AND ADVECT SOMEWHAT WARMER AIR INTO THE REGION AS THE               
 SURFACE HIGH DRIFTS EAST AND AHEAD OF THE NEXT WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE            
 SCHEDULED TO ARRIVE ON SATURDAY. IN THIS REGARD, GUIDANCE                      
 TEMPERATURES CALLING FOR HIGHS IN THE TEENS LOOK OK BUT THESE                  
 READINGS WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY A 10 TO 20 MPH WIND AND WIND CHILLS            
 NEAR 10 BELOW ZERO.                                                            
 THERE ARE SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES IN THE 12Z MODELS ON THE HANDLING            
 OF THE SATURDAY WAVE. PREFER THE FASTER SOLUTIONS, OF WHICH THE GFS            
 IS ONE, AS RENEWED HEIGHT FALLS GET UNDERWAY IN CENTRAL CANADA AND             
 ANCHOR THE POLAR VORTEX OVER NORTHERN ONTARIO. THIS SYSTEM WILL                
 BRING OUR BEST CHANCE OF SNOW DURING THE WEEKEND AND REPLENISH THE             
 ARCTIC AIR MASS SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. THIS WILL BE THE MOST               
 BRUTAL PORTION OF THE COLD OUTBREAK WHEN FACTORING IN BOTH                     
 TEMPERATURE AND WIND TAKING WIND CHILL TO AROUND -20F. THE GFS                 
 FORECASTS 850 MB TEMPS TO DROP DOWN NEAR -28C WHICH CORRESPONDS TO             
 DAYTIME TEMPERATURES NO BETTER THAN THE SINGLE DIGITS ON SUNDAY. IN            
 FACT, DAYTIME TEMPERATURES TODAY IN REGIONS OF NORTHERN CANADA SHOW            
 A FEW READINGS STILL BELOW ZERO WITH SIMILAR 850 MB TEMPERATURES. IN           
 ADDITION, THERE WILL LIKELY BE CONSIDERABLY MORE OF A SURFACE                  
 PRESSURE TROUGH IN THE LEE OF LAKE MICHIGAN WHICH WILL DIRECT A SW             
 FLOW OF LESS MODIFIED AIR INTO SE MICHIGAN. THE LAST TIME METRO                
 DETROIT HAD AT LEAST TWO CONSECUTIVE DAYS OF SINGLE DIGIT HIGH                 
 TEMPERATURES WAS IN JANUARY 1994.                                              
 VERY LITTLE TEMPERATURE MODERATION IS EXPECTED ON MONDAY AS THE CORE           
 OF THE POLAR VORTEX MOVES OVER THE GREAT LAKES. THE GLOBAL MODELS DO           
 SHOW THE VORTEX MOVING EAST BY TUESDAY BUT DEEP NW FLOW WILL                   
 CONTINUE THE SUPPLY OF ARCTIC AIR THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.             
 SOME MODERATION IS POSSIBLE ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS THE WIND               
 BACKS TOWARD THE WEST AND NORTHWEST, PREVENTING THE LESS MODIFIED              
 AIR FROM MOVING INTO THE REGION.                                               
 &&                                                                             
 .AVIATION...ISSUED AT 104 PM EST                                               
 SOUTHWEST FLOW AND WEAK WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO                    
 SUPPORT MID CLOUDS TODAY. MARINE CLOUDS TO CONTINUE                            
 THIS AFTERNOON AT THE FNT AND MBS TERMINALS...WITH MVFR CEILINGS               
 EXPECTED PERIODICALLY. MVFR CEILINGS TO MOVE IN AGAIN AND BECOME               
 MORE WIDESPREAD AFTER MIDNIGHT...IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE APPROACH              
 OF A WEAK CLIPPER SYSTEM. MVFR CEILINGS ARE THEN EXPECTED TO                   
 REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THIS TAF PERIOD. THERE WILL BE SCATTERED               
 LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS AROUND ON THURSDAY. SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW TO                   
 PROVIDE FNT AND MBS WITH AN OPPORTUNITY FOR SOME LAKE ENHANCED                 
 SNOW SHOWERS...THUS THE REASONING FOR A PERIOD OF MVFR                         
 VISIBILITIES IN THAT AREA.                                                     
 &&                                                                             
 .DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                            
 MI...NONE.                                                                     
 LAKE HURON...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...LHZ421...NEARSHORE WATERS FROM PORT AUSTIN 
      THURSDAY.                                                                 
      SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS...LHZ422 UNTIL 10 AM THURSDAY.             
 LAKE ST CLAIR...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS...LCZ460 UNTIL 10 AM THURSDAY.  
 MI WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS...UNTIL 10 AM THURSDAY.
 &&                                                                             
 $$                                                                             
 SHORT TERM...JDS                                                               
 LONG TERM....BT                                                                
 AVIATION...JDS                                                                 
 YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE           
 AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).                                   
</pre> mi                                                                       

 AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                       
 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                          
 330 PM EST WED JAN 31 2007                                                     
 ...SEVERAL DAYS OF VERY COLD AIR EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT               
 WEEK...                                                                        
 .SYNOPSIS...                                                                   
 20Z WATER VAPOR LOOP AND RUC 500MB HEIGHT ANALYSIS SHOWED OVERALL              
 UPPER TROUGHING COVERING MUCH OF NORTH AMERICA...EXCEPT ALONG THE              
 WEST COAST INTO ALASKA WHERE A VERY AMPLIFIED RIDGE EXISTS.                    
 FAIRBANKS 850MB TEMP WAS 10C! WITHIN THE UPPER TROUGH...THERE ARE A            
 FEW FEATURES OF INTEREST. THE FIRST IS A SHRTWV TROUGH OVER WESTERN            
 MINNESOTA. DPVA/ISENTROPIC LIFT AHEAD OF THE TROUGH AND A LITTLE               
 MORE MOISTURE HAS ALLOWED FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF AN AREA OF LIGHT              
 SNOW ON THE MINNEAPOLIS RADAR ACROSS THE MINNEAPOLIS AREA INTO SW              
 WISCONSIN. HOWEVER...THE NORTH END OF THIS REFLECTIVITY SHIELD IS              
 MAINLY VIRGA...DUE TO DRY LOW LEVEL AIR AS NOTED BY THE 12Z MPX                
 SOUNDING AND SURFACE DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS OF 10-20F. THIS DRY LOW              
 LEVEL AIR...COMBINED WITH A SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF A 1007MB LOW               
 WEST OF DULUTH...HAS HELPED PUSH THE LAKE EFFECT CONVERGENT BAND               
 AFFECTING THE KEWEENAW BACK OUT OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL PART OF                 
 LAKE SUPERIOR. THE RESULT IS NOW ONLY A FEW MID/HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS             
 THE CWA. AS FAR AS AMOUNTS GO REGARDING THE EXPIRED HEADLINES...               
 PLACES ACROSS THE KEWEENAW ENDING UP WITH 4 TO 6 INCHES WHILE THOSE            
 BETWEEN THE PICTURED ROCKS NATIONAL LAKESHORE AND TAHQUAMENON FALLS            
 ENDED UP WITH 4 TO 7 INCHES. ACROSS THE LUCE COUNTY LINE IN                    
 PARADISE...HOWEVER...SPOTTERS HAVE REPORTED 10 TO 15 INCHES. THE               
 SECOND FEATURE OF INTEREST...WHICH IS EXPECTED TO BRING THE COLD AIR           
 ALONG WITH A PERIOD OF HEAVY LES TO WESTERN UPPER MICHIGAN...IS A              
 STRONGER SHRTWV LOCATED OVER NORTHERN SASKATCHEWAN. BEHIND THIS                
 SHRTWV...850MB TEMPS ON 12Z RAOBS WERE OBSERVED NEAR -30C. THE                 
 ACTUAL ARCTIC FRONTAL BOUNDARY CAN BE SEEN DROPPING THROUGH CENTRAL            
 SASKATCHEWAN/MANITOBA...WITH FALLING TEMPERATURES BEHIND IT.                   
 &&                                                                             
 .SHORT TERM (TONIGHT AND THU)...                                               
 TONIGHT...THE SHRTWV TROUGH OVER MINNESOTA IS PROGGED TO TRACK                 
 ACROSS MUCH OF UPPER MICHIGAN BY 06Z. ALL MODELS SEEM TO HAVE A GOOD           
 HANDLE ON THE SNOW AFFECTING THE MINNEAPOLIS AREA AND BASICALLY HAVE           
 MUCH OF IT GOING ACROSS WISCONSIN INTO LOWER MICHIGAN. IT APPEARS              
 THE NORTHERN END MAY CLIP THE SOUTH CENTRAL COUNTIES...BUT AGAIN               
 GIVEN THE LOW LEVEL DRY AIR SEEN ACROSS THE CWA AND ON THE 12Z GRB             
 SOUNDING...DO NOT BELIEVE MUCH SNOWFALL WILL OCCUR. MEANWHILE...HIGH           
 RESOLUTION MODELS DEPICT THAT THE SURFACE LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE              
 SHRTWV WILL REDEVELOP OVER CENTRAL LAKE SUPERIOR THIS EVENING...THEN           
 MOVE TO EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE TROUGH EXTENDING             
 SW FROM THE LOW WILL LIKELY CONTAIN SOME LES ALONG IT...PERHAPS EVEN           
 THE CURRENT LES BAND THAT EXISTS ON THE WESTERN PORTION OF LAKE                
 SUPERIOR. HOWEVER...MODELS DEPICT THE CONVERGENCE TO NOT BE AS                 
 STRONG AS EXPERIENCED LAST NIGHT ALONG THIS TROUGH...AND THUS THE              
 QPF AMOUNTS ARE NOT NEARLY AS GREAT. HAVE SLOWED DOWN THE MOVEMENT             
 OF THE LES INTO THE KEWEENAW BASED ON THE 13 KM RUC AND OUR HIGH               
 RESOLUTION WRF RUN SINCE LOW LEVEL WINDS ARE PROGGED TO STAY SW                
 UNTIL AFTER 06Z. THEREFORE SNOW AMOUNTS HAVE BEEN CUT BACK TONIGHT.            
 THU...AS THE SHRTWV OVER NORTHERN SASKATCHEWAN PLOWS SOUTHWARD INTO            
 THE NORTHERN PLAINS...RESULTING IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SURFACE LOW            
 WHICH TRACKS TO DULUTH BY 00Z...SW FLOW REDEVELOPS AT THE SURFACE.             
 HOWEVER...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT AHEAD OF THIS LOW IS NOT ALL THAT              
 STRONG...WHICH MEANS THAT THE TROUGH THAT MOVES INTO THE KEWEENAW              
 PENINSULA TONIGHT MAY GET HUNG UP OVER KEWEENAW COUNTY ON THU. THIS            
 SCENARIO IS DEPICTED WELL IN HIGH RESOLUTION RUNS AND THE GFS.                 
 THEREFORE HAVE RAISED BOTH POPS AND SNOW AMOUNTS FOR THE KEWEENAW.             
 KEPT AMOUNTS JUST BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA...THOUGH...SINCE THE                 
 CONVERGENCE DOES NOT LOOK PARTICULARLY STRONG WITH ONLY A 90 DEGREE            
 CHANGE IN DIRECTION ALONG THE BOUNDARY (COMPARED TO 180 DEGREES WITH           
 THIS PAST EVENT). ELSEWHERE...DRY AIR FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF                 
 TONIGHTS SHRTWV LOOKS TO STAY IN PLACE...WHICH WILL HELP KEEP THE              
 CWA DRY.                                                                       
 ONLY MADE A FEW TWEAKS TO GOING FORECAST TEMPERATURES FOR TONIGHT              
 AND THU BASED ON INCREASES/DECREASES IN CLOUD COVER AFFECTING                  
 RADIATION PROCESSES. NOTE THAT THESE READINGS WILL BE THE WARMEST              
 THAT WEST AND CENTRAL UPPER MICHIGAN WILL SEE FOR AWHILE...PROBABLY            
 THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.                                                     
 .LONG TERM (THU NIGHT THROUGH NEXT WED)...                                     
 FCST FOCUS FOR THU NGT/FRI CONCERNS TIMING/IMPACT OF FAIRLY SHARP              
 SHRTWV FCST TO DROP FM SCNTRL CAN INTO THE UPR GRT LKS. MODEL TREND            
 HAS BEEN TO SPEED UP THIS FEATURE AND ASSOCIATED SFC LO/ARCTIC                 
 FNT...SO FOLLOWED THE FASTER GFS/UKMET/CNDN MODELS FOR TIMING THE              
 ARCTIC BNDRY PER NCEP PREFERENCE OVER THE SLOWER NAM. GFS SHOWS                
 HEALTHY DPVA/H85-5 QVECTOR CNVGC/UPR DVGC/12HR H5 HGT FALLS NEAR               
 150M ASSOCIATED WITH SHRTWV MOVING INTO WI AT 12Z FRI AND THEN TO LK           
 HURON BY 00Z SAT. ARCTIC FNT PROGGED TO REACH THE WRN ZNS BY 12Z FRI           
 BEFORE PASSING ERY SHORTLY AFT 18Z. CONSIDERING THESE POTENT                   
 DYNAMICS AND DEEP MSTR DEPICTED ON THE GFS FCST SDNGS...WL MAINTAIN            
 CATEGORICAL POPS AOA MOS FCST OVER THE W AS EARLY AS LATE THU NGT              
 AND THEN ACRS ALL BUT THE SCNTRL ON FRI. SINCE THE SHRTWV IS PROGGED           
 TO MOVE QUICKER WITH EARLIER ARRIVAL OF DPVA THU NGT AND THEN                  
 DNVA/H85-5 QVECTOR DVGC/LARGER SCALE SUBSIDENCE ON FRI...THE ONLY              
 ADJUSTMENTS TO GOING FCST WX WL BE TO START THE HIER POPS EARLIER              
 W-E THU NGT AND THEN END SYNOPTIC SN POPS EARLIER FRI AFTN. ARRIVAL            
 OF ARCTIC AIR WL SPUR ONSET OF LES OFF LK SUP ON FRI...AND THERE               
 APPEARS TO BE AT LEAST A 6-HR PD OF LK ENHANCEMENT OVER THE W BEFORE           
 THE DYNAMICS EXIT FRI AFTN AND THE ACTIVITY EVOLVES TO PURE LES.               
 SINCE FINER SCALE EXTENDED RUC13 GUIDANCE HINTS THE SFC LO MAY GET             
 STUCK OVER ERN LK SUP WITH LATENT HEATING OFF THE WARM LK SUP                  
 WATERS...THINK THE MORE W LLVL WIND FIELD WL BE LESS FVRBL FOR LK              
 ENHANCEMENT E OF THE HURON MTNS. ALTHOUGH THE ARRIVAL OF THE VERY LO           
 H85 TEMPS (DOWN TO -25C AT IWD BY 00Z SAT) WL NEGATIVELY IMPACT SN             
 GROWTH MICROPHYSICS...HAVE OPTED TO ISSUE WINTER STORM WATCH FOR               
 LATE THU NGT THRU FRI FOR WRN COUNTIES BORDERING LK SUP AS WELL AS             
 BARAGA COUNTY. WL GO WITH FALLING TEMPS OVER THE W ON FRI WITH                 
 ARRIVAL OF COLDER AIR.                                                         
 12Z UKMET/GFS/ECMWF SHOW REINFORCING SHRTWV/DPVA/H85-5 QVECTOR CNVGC           
 ARRIVING FRI NGT BEFORE DEPARTING ON SAT. ARRIVAL OF THIS SHRTWV/              
 DYNAMICS/DEEPER MSTR WL MAINTAIN HIER POPS FOR LK ENHANCED SN...BUT            
 AIR IS SO COLD (H85 TEMPS FCST IN THE -24C TO -28C RANGE) LES                  
 OVERALL WL BE RELATIVELY LGT WITH POOR DENDRITIC SN GROWTH                     
 MICROPHYSICS. ONLY CONCERN WL BE BAND OF HEAVIER SHSN THAT COULD               
 DVLP IN SHARP CNVGC BTWN MORE WLY LAND BREEZE FLOW OVER LAND AND               
 SYNOPTIC SCALE NW WIND OVER LK SUP. LATER SHIFTS WL NEED TO EVALUATE           
 THE NEED FOR ANY HEADLINES ONCE THE LOCATION OF THESE LLVL CNVGC               
 AREAS CAN BE DETERMINED WITH MORE CONFIDENCE. WITH MORE WLY LAND               
 BREEZE FLOW FRI NGT IN BACKED WINDS AHEAD OF APRCHG SHRTWV...PREFER            
 LO END OF MOS GUIDANCE FOR LO TEMPS. GOING FCST HI TEMPS BLO ZERO              
 OVER THE INTERIOR W SEEM RSNBL ON SAT GIVEN GFS/ECMWF FCST OF H85              
 TEMPS APRCHG -30C BY 00Z SUN IN WAKE OF SHRTWV.                                
 00Z-12Z OPS MODELS/00Z GFS REFCST ENSEMBLE MEAN IN GOOD AGREEMENT              
 SHOWING HI AMPLITUDE TROF IN ERN NAMERICA PERSISTING THIS WEEKEND              
 INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. GFS/ECMWF BOTH FCST H85 TEMP BOTTOMING OUT AS            
 LO AS -28C TO -32C THIS WEEKEND BEFORE MODERATING MON-WED. 12Z                 
 TRENDS ARE SIMILAR...BUT LESS AGGRESSIVE AT RAISING THE H85 TEMPS              
 THAN EARLIER RUNS. HOWEVER...GFS REFCST ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE HINT THAT            
 CORE OF COLDEST AIR (H85 TEMPS AOA 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS BLO NORMAL)           
 WL NOT ARRIVE UNTIL MON/TUE FOLLOWING REINFORCING SHRTWV/SFC LO ON             
 SUN/MON AS FCST BY 06Z GFS. THIS FCST WOULD SUG SGNFT MODERATION WL            
 NOT ARRIVE UNTIL WED. WL GO WITH FCST TEMPS NR THE LO END OF MOS               
 GUIDANCE FOR SAT-TUE. FCST SOMEWHAT HIER...MORE WDSPRD POPS ON                 
 SUN/SUN NGT TO ACCOUNT FOR PSBL REINFORCING SHRTWV. THE OPS MODELS             
 DO SHOW A SOMEWHAT SHARPER PRES GRADIENT ON MON IN THE WAKE OF THIS            
 SHRTWV AND IN ADVANCE OF ARCTIC HI PRES BLDG INTO THE NRN                      
 PLAINS...WHICH ALG WITH SAT (SHARPER PRES GRADIENT IN THE WAKE OF              
 FRI LO) MIGHT END UP BEING THE DAYS WITH THE LOWEST WIND CHILLS AT             
 LEAST CLOSE TO WRNG CRITERIA. OTRW...THE ONLY PCPN THRU THE PD WL BE           
 LES MAINLY IN THE NW WIND SN BELTS LIMITED BY VERY COLD AIR THAT WL            
 HAVE A NEGATIVE IMPACT ON SN GROWTH. BUT... SMALL SNFLAKE SIZE WL BE           
 EFFECTIVE AT LIMITING VSBY.                                                    
 COORDINATED WITH DLH/GRB.                                                      
 &&                                                                             
 .MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                            
  WINTER STORM WATCH THU NIGHT AND FRI MIZ001>004-009-084.                      
 &&                                                                             
 $$                                                                             
 AJ (SHORT TERM)                                                                
 KC (LONG TERM)                                                                 
</pre> mi                                                                       

 AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                       
 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                          
 1056 AM EST WED JAN 31 2007                                                    
 ...SEVERAL DAYS OF VERY COLD AIR EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY              
 NEXT WEEK...                                                                   
 .SYNOPSIS...                                                                   
 15Z WATER VAPOR LOOP AND 12Z RAOBS SHOW WEAK RIDGING OCCURRING OVER            
 UPPER MICHIGAN AHEAD OF A SHRTWV TROUGH WHICH EXTENDS FROM NW                  
 MINNESOTA INTO SE WYOMING. WARM ADVECTION MID AND HIGH CLOUDS                  
 CONTINUE TO BE GENERATED AHEAD OF THIS SHRTWV TROUGH...THOUGH VERY             
 DRY AIR BETWEEN 650-900MB AS SEEN ON THE 12Z MPX...GRB AND INL                 
 SOUNDINGS HAVE KEPT SNOWFALL PRODUCTION AT A MINIMUM. IN FACT...THE            
 ONLY SNOW OCCURRING IS BACK IN THE FARGO AREA...WHICH HAPPENS TO BE            
 ON THE BACK SIDE OF A 1010MB LOW IN NW MINNESOTA. A TROUGH EXISTS TO           
 THE E OF THE LOW...ACROSS CENTRAL LAKE SUPERIOR AND SE TO WHITEFISH            
 BAY. KMQT RADAR LOOP CONTINUES TO SHOW SOME DECENT BANDS ALONG THIS            
 TROUGH NEAR GRAND MARAIS EASTWARD ACROSS NORTHERN LUCE COUNTY. THE             
 HOUGHTON COUNTY AIRPORT IS ALSO ON THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE BAND AS            
 NOTED BY VISIBILITIES OF 1SM OR LESS FOR THE PAST 5 HOURS. HAVE MADE           
 NUMEROUS CALLS TO COOP OBSERVERS THIS MORNING FOR VERIFICATION OF              
 THE WARNINGS/ADVISORIES AND FOUND THAT SNOWFALL RATES WERE AS                  
 EXPECTED...BETWEEN 1 AND 2 INCHES AN HOUR. HOWEVER...GIVEN THAT THE            
 CONVERGENT BANDS (WHICH LOOK DECENT ON VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY               
 RIGHT NOW) NEVER STAYED IN ONE PLACE FOR MORE THAN 4 HOURS...MOST OF           
 THE AMOUNTS HAVE BEEN UNDER 6 INCHES IN THE PAST 12 HOURS. THE                 
 COMBINATION OF LAND BREEZES AND HEIGHT RISES AHEAD OF THE SHRTWV               
 TROUGH HAVE HELPED TO PUSH THE TROUGH AND HEAVIER LES NORTHWARD...             
 AND THIS TREND CAN BE OBSERVED IN THE LATEST RADAR LOOP. LASTLY...             
 TO OUR N...THE POLAR VORTEX STILL SITS UP IN HUDSON BAY...THOUGH IS            
 EXPECTED TO DROP S THIS WEEKEND TO BRING THE UPCOMING COLD WAVE.               
 &&                                                                             
 .UPDATE...                                                                     
 MAIN UPDATE CONCERN IS ONGOING HEADLINES.                                      
 THE 12Z RUC SEEMED TO HAVE THE BEST HANDLE ON THE CURRENT PRESSURE             
 FIELD AND CONVERGENT AREAS FOR THE PAST FEW HOURS...THUS HAVE                  
 FOLLOWED IT FOR THE UPDATE. THE SURFACE TROUGH IS PROGGED TO                   
 CONTINUE LIFTING NORTHWARD...WITH PERHAPS THE DEVELOPMENT OF A                 
 SURFACE LOW/MESO-LOW OVER CENTRAL LAKE SUPERIOR BY 00Z. THIS SHOULD            
 HELP PULL MOST...IF NOT ALL THE LAKE EFFECT...OUT OF UPPER MICHIGAN.           
 STILL KEPT SOME ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS OVER KEWEENAW COUNTY AFTER 20Z           
 IN THE EVENT THAT THE BAND IS SLOWER TO MOVE NORTH. AS FAR AS                  
 HEADLINES GO...WILL LET THEM EXPIRE ON SCHEDULE SINCE THERE STILL IS           
 SOME DECENT SNOWFALL RATES OCCURRING WITH THE LAKE EFFECT BANDS.               
 SNOW AMOUNTS AND QPF FORECAST LOOK ON TRACK. OUTSIDE OF THE LAKE               
 EFFECT...MID AND HIGH CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE SPREADING                
 ACROSS THE CWA SINCE WE REMAIN DOWNSTREAM OF THE NW MINNESOTA SHRTWV           
 TROUGH. THESE CLOUDS WILL KEEP SOLAR INSOLATION LOW...HOWEVER A 5 TO           
 15 MPH SW WIND SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB TO GOING FORECAST            
 HIGHS. NO CHANGES MADE TO TEMPS OR SKY COVER.                                  
 GRID UPDATE...ARBWSWMQT AND ARBZFPMQT UPDATES ALREADY ISSUED.                  
 &&                                                                             
 .PREV DISCUSSION...                                                            
 MAIN FCST ISSUES REVOLVE AROUND ONGOING HEADLINE LES EVENT...ANOTHER           
 POSSIBLE SIGNIFICANT LAKE EFFECT/LAKE ENHANCED EVENT FRI WITH                  
 SHORTWAVE PASSAGE...AND THEN THE VERY COLD AIR TO SETTLE OVER THE              
 AREA IN ITS WAKE.                                                              
 WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND GFS ANALYSIS SHOW A VERY PRONOUNCED RIDGE              
 ALONG THE W COAST OF NAMERICA. 500MB HEIGHTS THERE ARE 2.5                     
 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL WHICH TRANSLATES TO 370M ABOVE                
 NORMAL IN THE CORE OF THE ANOMALY OVER SE ALASKA/SRN YUKON.                    
 DOWNSTREAM TROF IS DOMINATING THE ERN 2/3RDS OF NAMERICA...AND THE             
 TROF WILL ONLY BECOME DEEPER DUE TO THE UPSTREAM POSTIVE HEIGHT                
 ANOMALY. IN THE NW FLOW...ONE SHORTWAVE WAS DROPPING SE THRU THE               
 DAKOTAS WHILE ANOTHER WAS TRACKING SE JUST TO THE E OF LAKE                    
 SUPERIOR. THE LATTER SHORTWAVE HAS HELPED INTENSIFY LES OVER ERN               
 LAKE SUPERIOR WHICH IS OCCURRING IN A CONVERGENCE ZONE BTWN WRLY               
 WINDS OVER UPPER MI AND NW WINDS OVER THE LAKE. LES BANDS HAVE HAD A           
 FAIR AMOUNT OF SEPARATION WHICH WILL LIMIT THE AREAL COVERAGE OF               
 HIGHER ACCUMULATIONS. MOST INTENSE BANDS ARE WIDELY SEPARATED.                 
 SFC WIND FIELDS SHOW CONVERGENCE ZONE EXTENDING W ACROSS THE                   
 KEWEENAW (WIND DIRECTION WAS SSW AT ONTONAGON AND NW AT HOUGHTON).             
 WOULD EXPECT SOME HEAVIER SNOW TO BE OCCURRING IN THE PAINESDALE               
 VCNTY. EVEN SO...DRIER UPSTREAM AIRMASS PER 00Z KINL SOUNDING IS               
 PROBABLY HAVING A NEGATIVE IMPACT ON SNOW INTENSITY OVER THE NW FCST           
 AREA.                                                                          
 WITH PASSAGE OF SHORTWAVE JUST E OF LAKE SUPERIOR...WINDS WILL VEER            
 A BIT MORE ACROSS ERN LAKE SUPERIOR OVER THE NEXT FEW HRS...AND                
 SPEEDS WILL DECREASE. THE VEERING WINDS OVER THE LAKE WILL CONTINUE            
 TO FOCUS CONVERGENCE ACROSS ERN ALGER/NRN LUCE COUNTIES EARLY THIS             
 MORNING WHILE CONVERGENCE ZONE TO THE NW WILL REMAIN NEARLY                    
 STATIONARY ACROSS CNTRL HOUGHTON COUNTY. FROM MID MORNING INTO THE             
 AFTN...WINDS WILL BACK SW IN RESPONSE TO APPROACH OF THE NRN                   
 EXTENSION OF SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY OVER THE DAKOTAS. MODELS ARE                  
 ACTUALLY IN DECENT AGREEMENT ON THE WIND FIELD RESPONSE. IT APPEARS            
 WINDS WILL BE SUFFICIENTLY BACKED TO END LES OVER ALGER/LUCE AROUND            
 18Z. SO...WILL ALLOW ONGOING WARNING FOR THAT AREA TO CONTINUE AS IS           
 UNTIL EXPIRATION AT 18Z. WIDE SEPARATION BTWN STRONGEST LES BANDS              
 WILL PROBABLY RESULT IN ONLY A FEW LOCATIONS REACHING THE WARNING              
 CRITERIA OF 10 INCHES FOR THIS EVENT. MEANWHILE...THERE IS A BIT               
 MORE UNCERTAINTY ON WIND FIELDS OVER/NEAR THE KEWEENAW DUE TO SMALL            
 BUT IMPORTANT DIFFERENCES IN TIMING THE NWD MOVEMENT OF CONVERGENCE            
 ZONE. HOWEVER...IT DOES APPEAR THAT BY LATE AFTN...MAIN CONVERGENCE            
 WILL HAVE SHIFTED JUST N AND NW OF THE KEWEENAW. WITH WIND FIELDS              
 DIMINISHING SUBSTANTIALLY THRU THE DAY AND THUS WEAKENING THE                  
 CONVERGENCE...WOULD EXPECT LES IN THE MAIN BAND TO DIMINISH AS IT              
 LIFTS N ACROSS THE KEWEENAW. OF COURSE...THAT IS NOT ALWAYS THE                
 CASE. IT LOOKS LIKE MUCH OF ONTONAGON/SRN HOUGHTON COUNTIES HAVE               
 SEEN VERY LITTLE/NO SNOW. RECENT REPORT FROM MASS CITY WAS JUST                
 LIGHT SNOW. PERHAPS THE AREA JUST N OF M-38 HAS SEEN SOME                      
 ACCUMULATION...BUT THERE IS NO WAY TO KNOW AT THIS TIME OF DAY.                
 BASED ON THE SOLID SSW WIND AT ONTONAGON AND REPORT FROM MASS                  
 CITY...WILL DROP WARNING FOR ONTONAGON COUNTY AS CONVERGENCE AREA IS           
 PROBABLY JUST N OF COUNTY. WILL THUS ALSO DROP SRN HOUGHTON COUNTY             
 ADVY. NOT SURE WARNING WILL VERIFY FOR NRN HOUGHTON COUNTY...BUT               
 WITH CONVERGENCE ZONE THERE...WILL LET IT RIDE. IT`S POSSIBLE THAT             
 HEADLINE FOR KEWEENAW COUNTY MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED BEYOND                    
 18Z...BUT IT SEEMS REASONABLE AT THIS POINT TO SEE HOW THE WIND                
 FIELDS ACTUALLY EVOVLE DURING THE MID/LATE MORNING BEFORE MAKING ANY           
 NECESSARY HEADLINE ADJUSTMENTS. AWAY FROM LES...EXPECT DRY WEATHER             
 TODAY.                                                                         
 PASSAGE OF SHORTWAVE TONIGHT WILL RESULT IN WINDS VEERING MORE WRLY            
 AGAIN OVER WRN LAKE SUPERIOR. IF A BAND OF HEAVIER LES REMAINS INTO            
 THE EVENING OVER THE LAKE IN THE CONVERGENT ZONE THAT LIFTED N                 
 TODAY...IT WILL MOVE BACK ONSHORE OVER THE KEWEENAW. WHILE GFS FCST            
 SOUNDING FOR KCMX INDICATES MIDLEVEL DRYING AND INVERSION SETTLING             
 DOWN TO 4-5KFT...NAM LOOKS MORE PROMISING FOR HEAVIER SNOW WITH                
 INVERSION AT 6-7KFT AND DEEP LAYER OF FAVORABLE DENDRITIC SNOW                 
 CRYSTAL GROWTH TEMPS. FOW NOW...WILL PAINT NEAR ADVY LEVEL SNOW                
 ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS THE KEWEENAW. TROF HANGS UP OVER ERN LAKE                 
 SUPERIOR SO WSW WINDS WILL KEEP LES OFFSHORE OF THE ERN FCST AREA.             
 WINDS BACK TOWARD THE SW OVER NRN LAKE MICHIGAN...BUT ALL THE MODELS           
 SUGGEST WINDS WILL HAVE JUST ENOUGH WRLY COMPONENT TO KEEP LES E OF            
 FCST AREA. OTHERWISE...MIGHT SEEM PATCHY -SN/FLURRIES WITH PASSAGE             
 OF SHORTWAVE.                                                                  
 EXPECT A RELATIVELY QUIET DAY THU UNDER WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDGING                 
 DOWNSTREAM OF SHORTWAVE TROF DROPPING INTO THE NRN PLAINS. THIS WILL           
 BE THE SYSTEM INITIATING THE ARCTIC BLAST FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.             
 WINDS WILL MAINTAIN ENOUGH OF WRLY COMPONENT THU OVER WRN LAKE                 
 SUPERIOR TO KEEP LES IN THE PICTURE FOR THE KEWEENAW. HOWEVER...               
 DRYING EVIDENT IN GFS/NAM FCST SOUNDINGS AND INVERSION DROPPING TO             
 3-4KFT WILL KEEP LES ON THE LIGHT SIDE...PERHAPS NOT MUCH MORE THAN            
 FLURRIES BY AFTN.                                                              
 SHORTWAVE WILL SWING THRU THE WRN GREAT LAKES FRI WITH SFC LOW PRES            
 ORGANIZING AND THEN DEEPENING MOST LIKELY OVER ERN LAKE SUPERIOR DUE           
 TO HEAT/MOISTURE FLUXES (850MB TEMPS WILL BE AROUND -16C FRI                   
 MORNING). GIVEN THE INSTABILITY OVER THE LAKE AND DEEP LAYER FORCING           
 WITH SHORTWAVE STRENGTHENING WITH TIME PER NAM/GFS 850-500MB QVECTOR           
 CONVERGENCE...SFC LOW AND THE WIND FIELDS TO THE W AND N OF SFC LOW            
 WILL PROBABLY BE STRONGER THAN WHAT ANY OF THE 00Z MODELS SHOW.                
 SHOULD BE A GOOD SETUP FOR A PERIOD OF HVY SNOW NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR             
 AS WINDS SWING SHARPLY AND STRONGLY TO THE NW. WILL LIKELY BE A                
 HEADLINE EVENT FOR MOST IF NOT ALL OF THE COUNTIES BORDERING LAKE              
 SUPERIOR. TEMPS WILL RISE LITTLE OVER THE W WITH EARLY FROPA.                  
 OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...THE COLDEST AIR OF THE             
 SEASON WILL SETTLE OVER THE AREA. ACTUALLY...THE COLD WILL RIVAL               
 SOME OF THE COLDEST OUTBREAKS DURING THE LAST 10 YEARS. MEDIUM RANGE           
 MODELS FOR OVER A WEEK HAVE BEEN INDICATING THIS SCENARIO...AND IT             
 IS NOW ONLY THE EXACT DETAILS OF HOW COLD IT WILL GET THAT REMAIN IN           
 QUESTION. CONSENSUS OF THE LAST FEW DAYS OF ECWMF/GFS RUNS IS THAT             
 850MB TEMPS WILL BOTTOM OUT IN THE -28 TO -32C RANGE LATE IN THE               
 WEEKEND. NOGAPS AND SEVERAL RECENT LOCAL HEMISPHERIC WRF-ARW RUNS              
 HAVE INDICATED 850MB TEMPS OF -34C TO AS LOW AS -38C. IT IS VERY               
 RARE TO SEE AIR THAT COLD HERE...SO THOSE SOLUTIONS ARE VIEWED AS              
 OUTLIER SOLUTIONS FOR NOW. IN ANYCASE...SAT THRU TUE WILL BE AN                
 EXTREMELY COLD PERIOD...ESPECIALLY SAT/SUN/MON. IT IS CERTAINLY                
 POSSIBLE THAT SOME LOCATIONS OVER THE W HALF OF UPPER MI AWAY FROM             
 LAKE SUPERIOR INFLUENCE WILL SEE TEMPS REMAIN BLO ZERO FROM FRI                
 NIGHT UNTIL TUE AFTN. MIN TEMPS WILL DEPEND ON CLOUD                           
 COVER/WINDS...BUT -10F TO -20F SHOULD BE THE RULE AWAY FROM LAKE               
 SUPERIOR INFLUENCE. IF SFC HIGH PRES RIDGE CAN SETTLE OVER THE AREA            
 ONE NIGHT EARLY NEXT WEEK...MIN TEMPS IN THE USUAL WEST HALF COLD              
 SPOTS WOULD EASILY PLUMMET BLO -30F. WINDS DON`T LOOK TOO STRONG               
 THRU THE PERIOD...SO WIND CHILLS WON`T BE AS LOW AS COULD BE THE               
 CASE. AS FOR LAKE EFFECT...GFS FCST SOUNDINGS ARE ACTUALLY FAIRLY              
 MOIST WITH HIGH INVERSIONS 8KFT TO AS MUCH AS 15KFT. HOWEVER...AN              
 OVERWHELMING NEGATIVE FOR SIGNIFICANT SNOW IS THE VERY COLD AIR                
 WHICH WILL SEVERELY LIMIT SNOW CRYSTAL GROWTH AND THUS                         
 ACCUMULATIONS. ALTHOUGH ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE FAIRLY                
 LIGHT EACH DAY...DURING SNOW SHOWERS THE AIR WILL BE THICK WITH                
 SMALL SNOWFLAKES WHICH WILL BE EXTREMELY EFFECTIVE AT REDUCING                 
 VISIBILITY TO NEAR ZERO.                                                       
 &&                                                                             
 .MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                            
  LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL 1 PM TODAY MIZ003.                             
  LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL 1 PM TODAY MIZ006-007.                         
  LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM TODAY MIZ001.                            
 &&                                                                             
 $$                                                                             
 AJ (UPDATE)                                                                    
 ROLFSON (PREV DISCUSSION)                                                      
</pre> mi                                                                       

 AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                             
 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                          
 1035 PM EST TUE JAN 30 2007                                                    
 .UPDATE...                                                                     
 MAIN FCST CONCERN IS LOCATION/STRENGTH OF LES BANDS.                           
 RADAR INDICATED A PROMINENT WEST TO EAST LES BAND FROM JUST SOUTH OF           
 STANNARD ROCK TO WHITEFHISH POINT. SIGNFICANT LOW LVL CONVERGENCE              
 WAS EVIDENT WITH W OR SW WINDS FROM MARQUETTE TO GRAND MARAIS AND NW           
 WINDS FROM THE KEWEENAW AND STANNARD ROCK. OVER THE WEST...SFC OBS             
 SUGGEST LOW LVL CONV WAS FOCUSED BETWEEN ONTONAGON AND KCMX. 00Z               
 TAMDAR SNDG SHOWED TEMPS TO NEAR -19C AT 850 MB (5K FT) INVERSION              
 WHILE UPSTREAM KDLH SNDG SHOWED A LOWER INVERSION(AROUND 900 MB) AND           
 A SIGNIFICANTLY DRIER PROFILE.                                                 
 MESO MODELS SHOWED SLIGHTLY DIFFERENT POSITION FOR BEST LOW LVL CONV           
 AND LIKELY LOCATION FOR STRONGEST LES OVER THE WEST. THE NAM                   
 CONTINUED TO FOCUS LES BAND FARTHER NORTH...INTO HOUGHTON...THAN THE           
 LAPS WRF-ARW (JUST N OF M-38) OR THE RUC13(SOUTH OF M-38). THE GOING           
 FCST ADEQUATELY REFLECTS POTENTIAL FOR 3-6 INCH FROM ROCKLAND TO               
 CALUMET. HOWEVER...ONLY MORE LOCALIZED HEAVIER AMOUNTS ARE                     
 EXPECTED...MOST LIKELY S OF HOUGHTON.                                          
 RADAR TREND AND MESO MODELS STILL SUGGEST SIGNFICANT LES POTENTIAL             
 ALONG THE LAKE SUPERIOR SHORE E OF GRAND MARAIS THAT EVENTUALLY                
 WOULD SAG FARTHER S INTO ERN ALGER COUNTY AND NRN LUCE COUNTY BY               
 DAYBREAK. AGAIN...THERE IS LITTLE NEED AT THIS POINT TO ALTER GOING            
 FCST AS POTENTIAL REMAINS FOR LOCAL 4-8 INCH AMOUNTS BY DAYBREAK.              
 &&                                                                             
 JLB                                                                            
 .PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 325 PM EST TUE JAN 30 2007                           
 ...ARCTIC AIR TO INVADE WEST AND CENTRAL UPPER MICHIGAN THIS                   
 WEEKEND...                                                                     
 .SYNOPSIS...                                                                   
 20Z WATER VAPOR LOOP AND RUC 500MB HEIGHT ANALYSIS SHOWED UPPER                
 TROUGHING COVERING MUCH OF SE CANADA INTO THE GREAT LAKES...WITH THE           
 CENTER BEING A 498 DAM POLAR VORTEX OVER HUDSON BAY. ON THE WEST               
 SIDE OF THE VORTEX WAS A SHRTWV OVER FAR NORTHERN ONTARIO...                   
 ACCOMPANIED BY A 90 KT JET STREAK NEAR THE TROPOPAUSE. THIS SHRTWV             
 IS ALSO ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH...WHICH EXTENDS FROM             
 NE MANITOBA INTO NORTHERN ONTARIO JUST N OF PICKLE LAKE. ALTHOUGH              
 12Z SOUNDINGS FROM NEARBY CANADIAN RAOBS DO NOT INDICATE A LOT OF              
 MOISTURE WITH THE SHRTWV...SURFACE OBS AND VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY           
 DOES SHOW A STRATUS DECK ALONG AND BEHIND THIS TROUGH...WITH                   
 OVERCAST CEILINGS BETWEEN 5000-8000 FT. EVEN A LITTLE LIGHT SNOW HAS           
 BEEN REPORTED...WITH A 2 1/2 SM VISIBILITY RECENTLY AT PICKLE LAKE.            
 850MB TEMPS ARE STILL CHILLY NEAR THIS TROUGH...WITH THE PICKLE LAKE           
 ONTARIO 12Z SOUNDING REPORTING AROUND -17C. CLOSER TO HOME...A                 
 1018MB HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS IS BUILDING OVER UPPER MICHIGAN...             
 WHICH EXTENDS WESTWARD TO A 1034MB HIGH CENTERED OVER NEBRASKA. THE            
 COMBINATION OF DRIER AIR (SEE 12Z INL SOUNDING) AND DEVELOPING                 
 ANTICYCLONIC FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE SURFACE RIDGE HAS HELPED TO              
 GREATLY DIMINISH THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW FROM WHAT OCCURRED LAST NIGHT.           
 HOWEVER...WEAK RETURN FLOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE RIDGE AXIS HAS              
 ALLOWED LAKE EFFECT TO RAPIDLY DEVELOP ON WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR.               
 FARTHER TO THE WEST...A STRONG SHRTWV CAN BE SEEN DIVING SOUTHWARD             
 THROUGH SASKATCHEWAN ON THE EAST SIDE OF A VERY AMPLIFIED RIDGE                
 WHEICH EXTENDS UP INTO ALASKA. ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THIS RIDGE OVER            
 THE ARCTIC OCEAN IS YET A STRONGER SHRTWV...AND THIS IS THE ONE THAT           
 WILL BRING THE ARCTIC AIR IN FOR THE WEEKEND.                                  
 &&                                                                             
 .SHORT TERM (TONIGHT AND WED)...                                               
 MAIN FORECAST CONCERN IS LES WITH APPROACHING SHRTWV.                          
 WINDS CONTINUING TO BACK TO THE WEST...ALONG WITH THE APPROACHING              
 SHRTWV AND SURFACE TROUGHS...WILL SET UP AN INTERESTING SCENARIO               
 FOR TONIGHT. AS TEMPERATURES COOL DOWN THIS EVENING IN THE INTERIOR            
 AND OVER ONTARIO...LAND BREEZES ARE LIKELY TO SET UP. THESE LAND               
 BREEZES WILL HELP TO FOCUS STRONG CONVERGENCE ALONG THE SURFACE                
 TROUGH...WHICH IS PROGGED TO REACH THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA AND THE              
 LAKE SUPERIOR SHORELINE NEAR GRAND MARAIS AROUND 03Z. THIS                     
 CONVERGENCE...COMBINED WITH PLENTY OF OVER-WATER INSTABILITY (AS               
 NOTED WITH PICKLE LAKES RAOB) AND SYNOPTIC MOISTURE SHOULD HELP                
 GENERATE SOME HEAVY LES...ESPECIALLY SINCE THE OMEGA INDUCED FROM              
 THE LAKE EFFECT WILL INTERSECT A 50-75MB DEEP SNOW GROWTH LAYER PER            
 MODEL SOUNDINGS. EXACTLY HOW STRONG THE LAND BREEZE IS WILL DICTATE            
 HOW FAR SOUTH THE CONVERGENCE AND HEAVY SNOW GOES...PARTICULARLY IN            
 THE WESTERN U.P. THE 13 KM RUC...WHICH HAS HAD A GOOD HANDLE ON                
 LATEST LES EVENTS...SUGGESTS THE BAND WILL FOCUS IN THE AREA BETWEEN           
 ROCKLAND AND BARAGA. HOWEVER THE NAM...REGIONAL CANADIAN AND LOCAL             
 HIGH RESOLUTION WRF RUNS KEEP THE BAND FARTHER NORTH...ACROSS                  
 PAINESDALE AND HOUGHTON. THE LATEST 15Z AND 18Z RUC RUNS APPEAR TO             
 BE FOLLOWING THE NAM SCENARIO TOO. SINCE ALL SOLUTIONS SEEM                    
 PLAUSIBLE...HAVE DECIDED TO FOLLOW A COMPROMISE. WHEREVER IT SETS              
 UP...IT WILL LIKELY REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY FOR 9 TO 12 HOURS                 
 BEFORE THE CONVERGENCE ZONE MOVES NORTHWARD...AND GIVEN GREAT SNOW             
 GROWTH ON MODEL SOUNDINGS...DECIDED TO HOIST WARNINGS EARLIER FOR NE           
 ONTONAGON AND NORTHERN HOUGHTON COUNTIES. ADVISORIES ARE POSTED FOR            
 KEWEENAW AND SOUTHERN HOUGHTON FOR BOTH UNCERTAINTY REGARDING BAND             
 PLACEMENT AND POSSIBLE OTHER BANDS THAT ARE AIDED BY UPSLOPE.                  
 KEWEENAW COUNTY WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED A LITTLE MORE TOMORROW AS              
 THE CONVERGENCE ZONE MAY GET STUCK THERE. DECIDED NOT TO GO WITH A             
 WARNING...THOUGH...AS THE CONVERGENCE WEAKENS DRAMATICALLY FROM THAT           
 OBSERVED TONIGHT.                                                              
 FOR THE EASTERN CWA...UPGRADED THE WATCH EARLIER TO A WARNING AS               
 MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT HERE WITH THE CONVERGENCE AREA. LOCAL             
 HIGH RESOLUTION WRF RUN SUGGESTS UP TO 0.60 OF QPF UNDER THIS                  
 CONVERGENCE...WHICH GIVEN RECENT SNOW TO WATER RATIOS WOULD SUGGEST            
 UP TO 18 INCHES OF SNOW. DID NOT GO THIS HIGH AT THE PRESENT                   
 TIME...BUT IT WOULD NOT BE A SURPRISE IF AMOUNTS THAT HIGH                     
 OCCUR...ESPECIALLY GIVEN EXTRA CONVERGENCE HELP FROM LAND BREEZES              
 OFF ONTARIO.                                                                   
 AWAY FROM THE LES DURING THE SHORT TERM PERIOD...CONDITIONS LOOK               
 FAIRLY QUIET. ALTHOUGH THE STRATUS DECK OVER ONTARIO IS EXPECTED TO            
 MOVE OVER THE CWA THIS EVENING...MUCH OF THE SHRTWV FORCING WHICH              
 HAS HELPED PRODUCE THE LIGHT SNOW AT PICKLE LAKE IS PROGGED TO MOVE            
 OFF TO THE E. THEREFORE HAVE REMOVED ANY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR                
 SYNOPTIC SNOW. ALSO REMOVED POPS FOR SYNOPTIC SNOW ON WED SINCE MUCH           
 OF THE CWA IS PROGGED TO BE IN WEAK SHRTWV RIDGING BETWEEN TONIGHTS            
 SHRTWV AND THE SASKATCHEWAN SHRTWV TROUGH.                                     
 GOING FORECAST TEMPERATURES THROUGH WED LOOK REASONABLE AND HAVE               
 MADE VERY FEW CHANGES TO THEM.                                                 
 .LONG TERM (WED NIGHT THROUGH NEXT TUE)...                                     
 ON WED NGT...SHRTWV TROF/DEEPER MSTR WL BE PUSHING TO THE E WED                
 NGT...AND GUIDANCE SHOWS LLVL FLOW VEERING MORE W OVERNGT W-E IN ITS           
 WAKE AND GRDLY BECMG MORE ACYC WITH APRCH OF SHRTWV RDGING/DNVA/               
 H85-5 QVECTOR DVGC. THESE EVENTS SHOULD CAUSE LES BANDS NEAR THE TIP           
 OF THE KEWEENAW TO MIGRATE TO THE S IN LINE WITH GFS/NAM FCST                  
 SHARPER LLVL CNVGC. HOWEVER...SHIFTING WINDS/MORE TRANSIENT CNVGC/             
 NEGATIVE DYNAMICS MIGHT LIMIT SN ACCUMULATION WED NGT. WL GO WITH              
 LIKELY POPS OVER THE W FM ONTONAGON COUNTY TO THE N. SINCE GUIDANCE            
 SHOWS FOCUSED LLVL CNVGC REMAINING TO THE N OF THE ERN ZNS...WL GO             
 WITH JUST CHC POPS NR LK SUP E OF P53. OTRW...ANY PTCHY -SN/                   
 FLURRIES ACCOMPANYING SHRTWV WL TEND TO DIMINISH OVERNGT ONCE DEEPER           
 MSTR/DYNAMICS EXIT TO THE E. PREFER LOWER GOING FCST MIN TEMPS WITH            
 PROSPECT OF DRYING ALF LATE AS SHOWN ON GFS FCST SDNGS EVEN THOUGH             
 BKN-OVC SC SHOULD LINGER UNDER DVLPG SUBSIDENCE INVRN.                         
 EXPECT A RELATIVELY QUIET DAY ON THU UNDER WEAK SHRTWV RDG                     
 DOWNSTREAM OF A DEEPENING TROF IN THE NRN PLAINS AND LLVL FLOW                 
 SLOWLY BACKING MORE SW. EVEN THOUGH QUITE A BIT OF SC WL LINGER                
 UNDER MID LVL DRY AIR/SUBSIDENCE INVRN SHOWN ON GFS FCST SDNGS....WL           
 RESTRICT MENTION OF POPS ON THU TO AREAS DOWNWIND OF LK SUP IN                 
 EXPECTED WSW FLOW. PREFER SOMEWHAT LOWER GFS MOS TEMPS GIVEN                   
 EXPECTED CLD COVER/H85 TEMPS -15C TO -17C OR SO.                               
 AS SHRTWV FM THE NRN PLAINS MOVES INTO THE UPR MS VALLEY BY 12Z FRI            
 AND THEN INTO ERN LK SUP BY 00Z FRI ACCOMPANINED BY SOME FAIRLY                
 HEALTHY DPVA/H85-5 QVECTOR CNVGC/12 HR H5 HGT FALLS APRCHG 80M...              
 EXPECT A RELATIVELY WDSPRD SN TO DVLP...WITH THE HEAVIEST SN FALLING           
 OVER THE NW HALF OF THE FA ON CYC SIDE OF H5 VORT TRACK WHERE LLVL             
 NW FLOW WL OFFER THE OPPORTUNITY FOR SOME LK ENHANCEMENT AS H85                
 TEMPS TUMBLE IN THE AFTN AND GFS FCST SDNGS SHOW DEEP MSTR THRU THE            
 TROP. DECIDED TO BUMP POPS UP TO LIKELY EVERYWHERE WITH CATEGORICAL            
 POPS FM IWD-CMX-HURON MTNS ON FRI. LATER SHIFTS WL LIKELY NEED TO              
 ISSUE HEADLINE FOR THIS EVENT EVEN THOUGH LATEST NCEP FCST SN AMTS             
 JUST A FEW INCHES.                                                             
 BITTER COLD WL BE THE MAIN WX STORY THIS WEEKEND/EARLY NEXT WEEK IN            
 PERSISENT HI AMPLITUDE NEGATIVE NAO/POSTIVE PNA DEEP UPR TROF                  
 CENTERED BTWN ERN PAC RDG NOSING INTO AK AND BLOCKING UPR HI IN THE            
 N ATLANTIC OCEAN. ALTHOUGH THERE ARE SOME SLGT TIMING DIFFERENCES...           
 00Z>12Z MID RANGE GUIDANCE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH 0Z GFS                
 REFCST ENSEMBLE MEAN DEPICTING SFC LO CROSSING LK SUP ON FRI (SEE              
 ABV) IN ADVANCE OF INCOMING WAVE OF ARCTIC AIR. CORE OF ARCTIC COLD            
 WITH H85 TEMPS IN THE -28C TO -32C RANGE FCST BY BOTH 06Z GFS/12Z              
 ECMWF TO INVADE SAT AND PERSIST INTO TUE. GFS REFCST ENSEMBLE MEAN             
 SHOWS AVERAGE H1000-5 THKNS ARND 488DM WITH H85 TEMPS FCST IN EXCESS           
 OF 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS BLO NORMAL. AS A COMPARISON TO RECENT COLD            
 WAVES...H85 TEMPS IN THE EARLY FEB 1996 COLD WAVE WERE -30C TO                 
 -35C...SO THIS EVENT MAY END UP MARGINALLY WARMER THAN THE COLD                
 OBSVD IN EARLY FEB 1996. GIVEN AGREEMENT AMONG OPS MODELS/ENSEMBLE             
 MEAN...WL GO TOWARD THE LO END OF GFS MOS GUIDANCE FOR THE                     
 WEEKEND/EARLY NEXT WEEK... WITH SOME MIN TEMPS AOB -30F/MAX TEMPS              
 REMAINING BLO 0F A GOOD BET FOR INTERIOR AREAS. ALTHOUGH LES WL BE             
 ONGOING NR LK SUP WITH CORE OF COLD PASSING OVER LK SUP ESPECIALLY             
 IN NW FLOW BELTS TO THE S OF LK INDUCED TROF NR LK SUP...SUCH FRIGID           
 TEMPS WL NOT BE CONDUCIVE FOR FVRBL SN GROWTH.                                 
 COORDINATED WITH GRB.                                                          
 &&                                                                             
 .MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                            
 LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 PM WED MIZ002-003              
 LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 PM WED MIZ006-007             
 LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 PM WED MIZ001                 
 LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM WED MIZ084                
 HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING LAKE SUPERIOR.                                    
 &&                                                                             
 $$                                                                             
 AJ (SHORT TERM)                                                                
 KC (LONG TERM)                                                                 
</pre> mi                                                                       

 AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                       
 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                          
 325 PM EST TUE JAN 30 2007                                                     
 ...ARCTIC AIR TO INVADE WEST AND CENTRAL UPPER MICHIGAN THIS                   
 WEEKEND...                                                                     
 .SYNOPSIS...                                                                   
 20Z WATER VAPOR LOOP AND RUC 500MB HEIGHT ANALYSIS SHOWED UPPER                
 TROUGHING COVERING MUCH OF SE CANADA INTO THE GREAT LAKES...WITH THE           
 CENTER BEING A 498 DAM POLAR VORTEX OVER HUDSON BAY. ON THE WEST               
 SIDE OF THE VORTEX WAS A SHRTWV OVER FAR NORTHERN ONTARIO...                   
 ACCOMPANIED BY A 90 KT JET STREAK NEAR THE TROPOPAUSE. THIS SHRTWV             
 IS ALSO ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH...WHICH EXTENDS FROM             
 NE MANITOBA INTO NORTHERN ONTARIO JUST N OF PICKLE LAKE. ALTHOUGH              
 12Z SOUNDINGS FROM NEARBY CANADIAN RAOBS DO NOT INDICATE A LOT OF              
 MOISTURE WITH THE SHRTWV...SURFACE OBS AND VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY           
 DOES SHOW A STRATUS DECK ALONG AND BEHIND THIS TROUGH...WITH                   
 OVERCAST CEILINGS BETWEEN 5000-8000 FT. EVEN A LITTLE LIGHT SNOW HAS           
 BEEN REPORTED...WITH A 2 1/2 SM VISIBILITY RECENTLY AT PICKLE LAKE.            
 850MB TEMPS ARE STILL CHILLY NEAR THIS TROUGH...WITH THE PICKLE LAKE           
 ONTARIO 12Z SOUNDING REPORTING AROUND -17C. CLOSER TO HOME...A                 
 1018MB HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS IS BUILDING OVER UPPER MICHIGAN...             
 WHICH EXTENDS WESTWARD TO A 1034MB HIGH CENTERED OVER NEBRASKA. THE            
 COMBINATION OF DRIER AIR (SEE 12Z INL SOUNDING) AND DEVELOPING                 
 ANTICYCLONIC FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE SURFACE RIDGE HAS HELPED TO              
 GREATLY DIMINISH THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW FROM WHAT OCCURRED LAST NIGHT.           
 HOWEVER...WEAK RETURN FLOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE RIDGE AXIS HAS              
 ALLOWED LAKE EFFECT TO RAPIDLY DEVELOP ON WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR.               
 FARTHER TO THE WEST...A STRONG SHRTWV CAN BE SEEN DIVING SOUTHWARD             
 THROUGH SASKATCHEWAN ON THE EAST SIDE OF A VERY AMPLIFIED RIDGE                
 WHEICH EXTENDS UP INTO ALASKA. ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THIS RIDGE OVER            
 THE ARCTIC OCEAN IS YET A STRONGER SHRTWV...AND THIS IS THE ONE THAT           
 WILL BRING THE ARCTIC AIR IN FOR THE WEEKEND.                                  
 &&                                                                             
 .SHORT TERM (TONIGHT AND WED)...                                               
 MAIN FORECAST CONCERN IS LES WITH APPROACHING SHRTWV.                          
 WINDS CONTINUING TO BACK TO THE WEST...ALONG WITH THE APPROACHING              
 SHRTWV AND SURFACE TROUGHS...WILL SET UP AN INTERESTING SCENARIO               
 FOR TONIGHT. AS TEMPERATURES COOL DOWN THIS EVENING IN THE INTERIOR            
 AND OVER ONTARIO...LAND BREEZES ARE LIKELY TO SET UP. THESE LAND               
 BREEZES WILL HELP TO FOCUS STRONG CONVERGENCE ALONG THE SURFACE                
 TROUGH...WHICH IS PROGGED TO REACH THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA AND THE              
 LAKE SUPERIOR SHORELINE NEAR GRAND MARAIS AROUND 03Z. THIS                     
 CONVERGENCE...COMBINED WITH PLENTY OF OVER-WATER INSTABILITY (AS               
 NOTED WITH PICKLE LAKES RAOB) AND SYNOPTIC MOISTURE SHOULD HELP                
 GENERATE SOME HEAVY LES...ESPECIALLY SINCE THE OMEGA INDUCED FROM              
 THE LAKE EFFECT WILL INTERSECT A 50-75MB DEEP SNOW GROWTH LAYER PER            
 MODEL SOUNDINGS. EXACTLY HOW STRONG THE LAND BREEZE IS WILL DICTATE            
 HOW FAR SOUTH THE CONVERGENCE AND HEAVY SNOW GOES...PARTICULARLY IN            
 THE WESTERN U.P. THE 13 KM RUC...WHICH HAS HAD A GOOD HANDLE ON                
 LATEST LES EVENTS...SUGGESTS THE BAND WILL FOCUS IN THE AREA BETWEEN           
 ROCKLAND AND BARAGA. HOWEVER THE NAM...REGIONAL CANADIAN AND LOCAL             
 HIGH RESOLUTION WRF RUNS KEEP THE BAND FARTHER NORTH...ACROSS                  
 PAINESDALE AND HOUGHTON. THE LATEST 15Z AND 18Z RUC RUNS APPEAR TO             
 BE FOLLOWING THE NAM SCENARIO TOO. SINCE ALL SOLUTIONS SEEM                    
 PLAUSIBLE...HAVE DECIDED TO FOLLOW A COMPROMISE. WHEREVER IT SETS              
 UP...IT WILL LIKELY REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY FOR 9 TO 12 HOURS                 
 BEFORE THE CONVERGENCE ZONE MOVES NORTHWARD...AND GIVEN GREAT SNOW             
 GROWTH ON MODEL SOUNDINGS...DECIDED TO HOIST WARNINGS EARLIER FOR NE           
 ONTONAGON AND NORTHERN HOUGHTON COUNTIES. ADVISORIES ARE POSTED FOR            
 KEWEENAW AND SOUTHERN HOUGHTON FOR BOTH UNCERTAINTY REGARDING BAND             
 PLACEMENT AND POSSIBLE OTHER BANDS THAT ARE AIDED BY UPSLOPE.                  
 KEWEENAW COUNTY WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED A LITTLE MORE TOMORROW AS              
 THE CONVERGENCE ZONE MAY GET STUCK THERE. DECIDED NOT TO GO WITH A             
 WARNING...THOUGH...AS THE CONVERGENCE WEAKENS DRAMATICALLY FROM THAT           
 OBSERVED TONIGHT.                                                              
 FOR THE EASTERN CWA...UPGRADED THE WATCH EARLIER TO A WARNING AS               
 MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT HERE WITH THE CONVERGENCE AREA. LOCAL             
 HIGH RESOLUTION WRF RUN SUGGESTS UP TO 0.60 OF QPF UNDER THIS                  
 CONVERGENCE...WHICH GIVEN RECENT SNOW TO WATER RATIOS WOULD SUGGEST            
 UP TO 18 INCHES OF SNOW. DID NOT GO THIS HIGH AT THE PRESENT                   
 TIME...BUT IT WOULD NOT BE A SURPRISE IF AMOUNTS THAT HIGH                     
 OCCUR...ESPECIALLY GIVEN EXTRA CONVERGENCE HELP FROM LAND BREEZES              
 OFF ONTARIO.                                                                   
 AWAY FROM THE LES DURING THE SHORT TERM PERIOD...CONDITIONS LOOK               
 FAIRLY QUIET. ALTHOUGH THE STRATUS DECK OVER ONTARIO IS EXPECTED TO            
 MOVE OVER THE CWA THIS EVENING...MUCH OF THE SHRTWV FORCING WHICH              
 HAS HELPED PRODUCE THE LIGHT SNOW AT PICKLE LAKE IS PROGGED TO MOVE            
 OFF TO THE E. THEREFORE HAVE REMOVED ANY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR                
 SYNOPTIC SNOW. ALSO REMOVED POPS FOR SYNOPTIC SNOW ON WED SINCE MUCH           
 OF THE CWA IS PROGGED TO BE IN WEAK SHRTWV RIDGING BETWEEN TONIGHTS            
 SHRTWV AND THE SASKATCHEWAN SHRTWV TROUGH.                                     
 GOING FORECAST TEMPERATURES THROUGH WED LOOK REASONABLE AND HAVE               
 MADE VERY FEW CHANGES TO THEM.                                                 
 .LONG TERM (WED NIGHT THROUGH NEXT TUE)...                                     
 ON WED NGT...SHRTWV TROF/DEEPER MSTR WL BE PUSHING TO THE E WED                
 NGT...AND GUIDANCE SHOWS LLVL FLOW VEERING MORE W OVERNGT W-E IN ITS           
 WAKE AND GRDLY BECMG MORE ACYC WITH APRCH OF SHRTWV RDGING/DNVA/               
 H85-5 QVECTOR DVGC. THESE EVENTS SHOULD CAUSE LES BANDS NEAR THE TIP           
 OF THE KEWEENAW TO MIGRATE TO THE S IN LINE WITH GFS/NAM FCST                  
 SHARPER LLVL CNVGC. HOWEVER...SHIFTING WINDS/MORE TRANSIENT CNVGC/             
 NEGATIVE DYNAMICS MIGHT LIMIT SN ACCUMULATION WED NGT. WL GO WITH              
 LIKELY POPS OVER THE W FM ONTONAGON COUNTY TO THE N. SINCE GUIDANCE            
 SHOWS FOCUSED LLVL CNVGC REMAINING TO THE N OF THE ERN ZNS...WL GO             
 WITH JUST CHC POPS NR LK SUP E OF P53. OTRW...ANY PTCHY -SN/                   
 FLURRIES ACCOMPANYING SHRTWV WL TEND TO DIMINISH OVERNGT ONCE DEEPER           
 MSTR/DYNAMICS EXIT TO THE E. PREFER LOWER GOING FCST MIN TEMPS WITH            
 PROSPECT OF DRYING ALF LATE AS SHOWN ON GFS FCST SDNGS EVEN THOUGH             
 BKN-OVC SC SHOULD LINGER UNDER DVLPG SUBSIDENCE INVRN.                         
 EXPECT A RELATIVELY QUIET DAY ON THU UNDER WEAK SHRTWV RDG                     
 DOWNSTREAM OF A DEEPENING TROF IN THE NRN PLAINS AND LLVL FLOW                 
 SLOWLY BACKING MORE SW. EVEN THOUGH QUITE A BIT OF SC WL LINGER                
 UNDER MID LVL DRY AIR/SUBSIDENCE INVRN SHOWN ON GFS FCST SDNGS....WL           
 RESTRICT MENTION OF POPS ON THU TO AREAS DOWNWIND OF LK SUP IN                 
 EXPECTED WSW FLOW. PREFER SOMEWHAT LOWER GFS MOS TEMPS GIVEN                   
 EXPECTED CLD COVER/H85 TEMPS -15C TO -17C OR SO.                               
 AS SHRTWV FM THE NRN PLAINS MOVES INTO THE UPR MS VALLEY BY 12Z FRI            
 AND THEN INTO ERN LK SUP BY 00Z FRI ACCOMPANINED BY SOME FAIRLY                
 HEALTHY DPVA/H85-5 QVECTOR CNVGC/12 HR H5 HGT FALLS APRCHG 80M...              
 EXPECT A RELATIVELY WDSPRD SN TO DVLP...WITH THE HEAVIEST SN FALLING           
 OVER THE NW HALF OF THE FA ON CYC SIDE OF H5 VORT TRACK WHERE LLVL             
 NW FLOW WL OFFER THE OPPORTUNITY FOR SOME LK ENHANCEMENT AS H85                
 TEMPS TUMBLE IN THE AFTN AND GFS FCST SDNGS SHOW DEEP MSTR THRU THE            
 TROP. DECIDED TO BUMP POPS UP TO LIKELY EVERYWHERE WITH CATEGORICAL            
 POPS FM IWD-CMX-HURON MTNS ON FRI. LATER SHIFTS WL LIKELY NEED TO              
 ISSUE HEADLINE FOR THIS EVENT EVEN THOUGH LATEST NCEP FCST SN AMTS             
 JUST A FEW INCHES.                                                             
 BITTER COLD WL BE THE MAIN WX STORY THIS WEEKEND/EARLY NEXT WEEK IN            
 PERSISENT HI AMPLITUDE NEGATIVE NAO/POSTIVE PNA DEEP UPR TROF                  
 CENTERED BTWN ERN PAC RDG NOSING INTO AK AND BLOCKING UPR HI IN THE            
 N ATLANTIC OCEAN. ALTHOUGH THERE ARE SOME SLGT TIMING DIFFERENCES...           
 00Z>12Z MID RANGE GUIDANCE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH 0Z GFS                
 REFCST ENSEMBLE MEAN DEPICTING SFC LO CROSSING LK SUP ON FRI (SEE              
 ABV) IN ADVANCE OF INCOMING WAVE OF ARCTIC AIR. CORE OF ARCTIC COLD            
 WITH H85 TEMPS IN THE -28C TO -32C RANGE FCST BY BOTH 06Z GFS/12Z              
 ECMWF TO INVADE SAT AND PERSIST INTO TUE. GFS REFCST ENSEMBLE MEAN             
 SHOWS AVERAGE H1000-5 THKNS ARND 488DM WITH H85 TEMPS FCST IN EXCESS           
 OF 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS BLO NORMAL. AS A COMPARISON TO RECENT COLD            
 WAVES...H85 TEMPS IN THE EARLY FEB 1996 COLD WAVE WERE -30C TO                 
 -35C...SO THIS EVENT MAY END UP MARGINALLY WARMER THAN THE COLD                
 OBSVD IN EARLY FEB 1996. GIVEN AGREEMENT AMONG OPS MODELS/ENSEMBLE             
 MEAN...WL GO TOWARD THE LO END OF GFS MOS GUIDANCE FOR THE                     
 WEEKEND/EARLY NEXT WEEK... WITH SOME MIN TEMPS AOB -30F/MAX TEMPS              
 REMAINING BLO 0F A GOOD BET FOR INTERIOR AREAS. ALTHOUGH LES WL BE             
 ONGOING NR LK SUP WITH CORE OF COLD PASSING OVER LK SUP ESPECIALLY             
 IN NW FLOW BELTS TO THE S OF LK INDUCED TROF NR LK SUP...SUCH FRIGID           
 TEMPS WL NOT BE CONDUCIVE FOR FVRBL SN GROWTH.                                 
 COORDINATED WITH GRB.                                                          
 &&                                                                             
 .MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                            
 LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 PM WED MIZ002-003              
 LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 PM WED MIZ006-007             
 LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 PM WED MIZ001                 
 LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM WED MIZ084                
 HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING LAKE SUPERIOR.                                    
 &&                                                                             
 $$                                                                             
 AJ (SHORT TERM)                                                                
 KC (LONG TERM)                                                                 
</pre> mi                                                                       

 AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                       
 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                          
 1207 PM EST TUE JAN 30 2007                                                    
 .SYNOPSIS...                                                                   
 16Z WATER VAPOR LOOP...RUC 500MB HEIGHT ANALYSIS AND 12Z RAOBS                 
 SHOWED UPPER TROUGHING COVERING MUCH OF SE CANADA INTO THE GREAT               
 LAKES...WITH THE CENTER BEING A 498 DAM POLAR VORTEX OVER HUDSON               
 BAY. ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE VORTEX WAS A SHRTWV OVER FAR NORTHERN             
 ONTARIO...ACCOMPANIED BY A 90 KT JET STREAK NEAR THE TROPOPAUSE.               
 THIS SHRTWV IS ALSO ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH...WHICH              
 EXTENDS FROM NE MANITOBA INTO NORTHERN ONTARIO JUST N OF PICKLE                
 LAKE. ALTHOUGH 12Z SOUNDINGS FROM NEARBY CANADIAN RAOBS DO NOT                 
 INDICATE A LOT OF MOISTURE WITH THE SHRTWV...SURFACE OBS AND VISIBLE           
 SATELLITE IMAGERY DOES SHOW A STRATUS DECK ALONG AND BEHIND THIS               
 TROUGH...WITH OVERCAST CEILINGS BETWEEN 5000-8000 FT. 850MB TEMPS              
 ARE STILL CHILLY NEAR THIS TROUGH...WITH THE PICKLE LAKE ONTARIO               
 SOUNDING REPORTING AROUND -17C. CLOSER TO HOME...A 1018MB HIGH                 
 PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS IS BUILDING INTO UPPER MICHIGAN FROM LAKE                  
 SUPERIOR...WHICH EXTENDS OFF A 1034MB HIGH CENTERED OVER NEBRASKA.             
 THE COMBINATION OF DRIER AIR (SEE 12Z INL SOUNDING) AND DEVELOPING             
 ANTICYCLONIC FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE SURFACE RIDGE HAS HELPED TO              
 GREATLY DIMINISH THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW FROM WHAT OCCURRED LAST NIGHT.           
 IN FACT...ALMOST ALL OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR IS CLEAR WITH BANDS              
 ONLY EXTENDING OUT ABOUT 25 MILES OFFSHORE. NONETHELESS...WITH THE             
 GREATER FETCH LENGTH OF NORTHWEST WINDS ON EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR TO            
 HELP WITH MOISTENING... SOME BANDS STILL CONTAIN 24-28DBZ                      
 REFLECTIVITIES ON THE CURRENT RADAR LOOP.                                      
 &&                                                                             
 .UPDATE...                                                                     
 MAIN UPDATE CONCERN IS DEVELOPING LES TONIGHT                                  
 FOR THIS AFTERNOON...WIND FLOW SHOULD CONTINUE TO BACK TOWARDS THE             
 WEST AS BOTH THE SHRTWV AND SURFACE TROUGH OVER NORTHERN                       
 ONTARIO...AND THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER LAKE SUPERIOR...DRIFT               
 SOUTH. THIS SHOULD CAUSE THE BANDS OVER THE EASTERN CWA TO CONTINUE            
 MOVING EASTWARD...THEN LIFT OUT OVER LAKE SUPERIOR LATE WHEN THE               
 WIND IS PROGGED TO TURN DUE WEST. GOING FORECAST HAS THE SCENARIO              
 HANDLED WELL AND ONLY A FEW MINOR TWEAKS WERE MADE TO THE SNOW                 
 COVERAGE AREA BASED ON RADAR TRENDS.                                           
 THE WIND SWITCHING TO THE WEST...ALONG WITH THE APPROACHING SHRTWV             
 AND SURFACE TROUGHS...SETS UP AN INTERESTING SCENARIO FOR TONIGHT.             
 AS TEMPERATURES COOL DOWN THIS EVENING IN THE INTERIOR AND OVER                
 ONTARIO...LAND BREEZES ARE LIKELY TO SET UP. THESE LAND BREEZES WILL           
 HELP TO FOCUS STRONG CONVERGENCE ALONG THE SURFACE TROUGH...WHICH IS           
 PROGGED TO REACH THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA AND THE LAKE SUPERIOR                  
 SHORELINE NEAR GRAND MARAIS AROUND 03Z. THIS CONVERGENCE...COMBINED            
 WITH PLENTY OF OVER-WATER INSTABILITY (AS NOTED WITH PICKLE LAKES              
 RAOB) AND SYNOPTIC MOISTURE SHOULD HELP GENERATE SOME HEAVY                    
 LES...ESPECIALLY SINCE THE OMEGA INDUCED FROM THE LAKE EFFECT WILL             
 INTERSECT A 50-75MB DEEP SNOW GROWTH LAYER PER MODEL SOUNDINGS.                
 EXACTLY HOW STRONG THE LAND BREEZE IS WILL DICTATE HOW FAR SOUTH THE           
 CONVERGENCE AND HEAVY SNOW GOES...PARTICULARLY IN THE WESTERN U.P.             
 THE 13 KM RUC...WHICH HAS HAD A GOOD HANDLE ON LATEST LES                      
 EVENTS...SUGGESTS THE BAND WILL FOCUS IN THE AREA BETWEEN ROCKLAND             
 AND BARAGA. HOWEVER THE NAM AND LOCAL HIGH RESOLUTION WRF RUNS KEEP            
 THE BAND FARTHER NORTH...ACROSS PAINESDALE AND HOUGHTON. THE LATEST            
 15Z RUC APPEARS TO BE FOLLOWING THE NAM SCENARIO TOO. SINCE ALL                
 SOLUTIONS SEEM PLAUSIBLE...HAVE DECIDED TO FOLLOW A COMPROMISE.                
 WHEREVER IT SETS UP...IT WILL LIKELY REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY FOR 9            
 TO 12 HOURS BEFORE THE CONVERGENCE ZONE MOVES NORTHWARD...AND GIVEN            
 GREAT SNOW GROWTH ON MODEL SOUNDINGS...DECIDED TO HOIST WARNINGS FOR           
 NE ONTONAGON AND NORTHERN HOUGHTON COUNTIES. ADVISORIES ARE POSTED             
 FOR KEWEENAW AND SOUTHERN HOUGHTON FOR BOTH UNCERTAINTY REGARDING              
 BAND PLACEMENT AND POSSIBLE OTHER BANDS THAT ARE AIDED BY UPSLOPE.             
 FOR THE EASTERN CWA...UPGRADED THE WATCH TO A WARNING AS MODELS ARE            
 IN GOOD AGREEMENT HERE WITH THE CONVERGENCE AREA. LOCAL HIGH                   
 RESOLUTION WRF RUN SUGGESTS UP TO 0.60 OF QPF UNDER THIS                       
 CONVERGENCE...WHICH GIVEN RECENT SNOW TO WATER RATIOS WOULD SUGGEST            
 UP TO 18 INCHES OF SNOW. DID NOT GO THIS HIGH AT THE PRESENT                   
 TIME...BUT IT WOULD NOT BE A SURPRISE IF AMOUNTS THAT HIGH                     
 OCCUR...ESPECIALLY GIVEN EXTRA CONVERGENCE HELP FROM LAND BREEZES              
 OFF ONTARIO.                                                                   
 .PREV DISCUSSION...                                                            
 LARGE SCALE SHOWS RIDGE OVER PACIFIC COAST INTO WESTERN CANADA AND             
 ALASKA WHILE TROUGHING DOMINATES EASTERN CANADA INTO GREAT LAKES.              
 THIS PATTERN WILL STAY AROUND FOR FORSEEABLE FUTURE. TROUGH ONLY               
 DEEPENS LATE THIS WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND AND MOST LIKELY STAYING THAT           
 WAY UNTIL EARLY NEXT WEEK. VERY COLD AIR WILL DECEND INTO MUCH OF              
 THE CONUS...INCLUDING THE UPR GREAT LAKES REGION. SHORTWAVE THAT HAS           
 PRODUCED STEADY LIGHT SNOW OVR MAINLY SOUTH CWA SINCE YDY AFTN IS              
 MOVING INTO N LWR MI. SHORTWAVE AND DEEP MOISTURE WITH IT ALLOWED LK           
 EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS TO INTENSIFY TREMENDOUSLY SINCE LATE LAST                  
 EVENING. HOWEVER...BANDS OF MOST INTENSE SNOW ARE ISOLATED. ONE BAND           
 WAS AFFECTING SW SCHOOLCRAFT COUNTY FOR MUCH OF NIGHT. NOTHING HEARD           
 FM THIS AREA YET...BUT WITH ECHOES PINGING 12KFT ON MQT RADAR OUT              
 OVR N LK MI STAYING STATIONARY OVR SAME AREA FOR 5 HOURS OR SO                 
 SUGGESTS THAT AMOUNTS OF A FOOT WOULD NOT BE OUT OF QUESTION. THAT             
 AREA OF ENHANCED SNOW IS BEGINNING TO SHIFT OFFSHORE AS WINDS JUST             
 OFF SFC ARE INCREASING FM NORTH. MEANWHILE...STRONG SNOW BAND OVR              
 LAKE SUPERIOR...THAT PRODUCED 6 INCHES OF SNOW LAST EVENING AT                 
 COPPER HARBOR PER LOCAL MEDIA REPORT...MIGRATED SOUTH AND HIT THE              
 HIGHER TERRAIN OF NCNTRL UPR MI WITHIN THE LAST HOUR. BAND WAS                 
 PRETTY NARROW...BUT VERY INTENSE...DROPPING 4 INCHES OF SNOW IN ONE            
 HOUR AT THE NWS OFFICE IN NEGAUNEE TOWNSHIP. FORTUNATELY...BAND IS             
 TRANSITORY AND IS SHIFTING STEADILY INLAND. OPTED TO COVER QUICK               
 MOVING BAND WITH SHORT TERM FORECASTS INSTEAD OF AN ADVISORY. EXPECT           
 HEAVIEST SNOW...AIDED BY SYNOPTIC SUPPORT...TO DIMINISH BY MID                 
 MORNING IF NOT SOONER. ONLY REAL CHANGE TO PREV GRIDS FOR TODAY WAS            
 TO KEEP LIKELY POPS OVR NE CWA INTO THE AFTN THOUGH SNOW INTENSITY             
 SHOULD GREATLY DIMINISH BY THEN.                                               
 TURNING TO TONIGHT. SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY NEAR CHURCHILL MANITOBA                
 TRUCKS SSE AND REACHES NE LK SUPERIOR BY LATE TONIGHT. BRIEF PERIOD            
 OF SYNOPTIC UPWARD MOTION AND DEEPER MOISTURE TO 10KFT WILL SPIKE              
 LES AGAIN. GFS APPEARED TOO WEST WITH BLYR WINDS CONSIDERING                   
 CLOSENESS OF TROUGH...SO FOLLOWED NAM/RUC13/CAN GEM WITH IDEA OF               
 NW WINDS DEVELOPING ON N HALF OF LK SUPERIOR TOWARD WHITEFISH BAY              
 AND MORE W WINDS REMAINING ON W HALF OF LK SUPERIOR OVR KEWEENAW.              
 THIS RESULTS IN A QUITE STRONG AREA OF CONVERGENCE DEVELOPING OVER             
 FAR NE CWA TOWARD WHITEFISH POINT IN APX CWA. ANY DOMINANT BAND                
 STREAMING INTO THIS AREA WILL ALSO HAVE ADDED BENEFIT OF MAXIMUM               
 OVER WATER FETCH OVR THE STILL OPEN WATERS OF LK SUPERIOR. ONE OR              
 TWO BANDS OF HEAVY SNOW SEEM PROBABLE IN THESE AREAS WITH SNOWFALL             
 RATES SIMILAR TO THOSE SEEN TONIGHT. ALTHOUGH THE AREA IS RELATIVELY           
 SMALL...POTENTIAL FOR LARGE AMOUNTS OF LES ARE THERE. SO...COORD               
 WITH APX AND ISSUED A LK EFFECT SNOW WATCH FOR ALGER AND LUCE                  
 COUNTIES TONIGHT INTO WED FOR AREAS MOSTLY EAST OF GRAND MARAIS.               
 FARTHER WEST OVER KEWEENAW...DID NOT GO WITH WATCH DUE TO THAT AREA            
 BEING FARTHER DISPLACED FM SYNOPIC LIFT/MOISTURE AND A SHORTER OVER            
 WATER FETCH. IF CONVERGENCE STRENGTHENS IN VCNTY OF APOSTLE ISLANDS            
 (AS GFS INDICATES) THEN HEAVY SNOW COULD AFFECT PORTIONS OF KEWEENAW           
 PENINSULA AS WELL. JUST HAVE ADVY AMOUNTS IN GRIDS ATTM. WINDS                 
 BACKING TO WSW SHOULD PUSH MOST OF HEAVY SNOW OFFSHORE OF ALGER/LUCE           
 BY LATE MORNING ON WED...BUT SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ON THE                 
 KEWEENAW.                                                                      
 ONLY MADE MINOR CHANGES TO WED NIGHT THROUGH FRI FORECAST PERIODS.             
 SOME LIGHT OVERRUNNING SNOW SEEMS POSSIBLE THU-THU NIGHT AHEAD OF              
 PRIMARY SHORTWAVE THAT BEGINS TO BRING IN BITTER COLD AIR LATE FRI.            
 SOME CONCERN THAT FRI AFTN-FRI EVENING PERIOD MAY BE QUITE HAZARDOUS           
 DUE TO A PERIOD OF HEAVY SNOW...INCREASING WINDS...BLOWING SNOW...             
 REDUCED VISIBILITIES. NOT TO MENTION...TUMBLING TEMPERATURES AND NO            
 DOUBT WIND CHILL ISSUES. LOWERED TEMPS IN FRI NIGHT-SAT PERIODS FOR            
 WEST HALF INTERIOR. WINDS BY LATE FRI NIGHT ARE MOSTLY FM WEST                 
 WHICH WILL LEAD TO MOSTLY OVER LAND TRAJECTORIES...LIMITING LAKE               
 SUPERIOR MODERATION. THIS SHOULD ALLOW EFFICIENT TRANSPORT OF BITTER           
 COLD AIR BANKED TO THE WEST AND NORTH INTO THE UPR LAKES. MEX                  
 GUIDANCE FOR FRI NIGHT SHOWED -10F TO -15F INLAND INTERIOR WHICH               
 SEEMED FEASIBLE AND THAT WOULD LIKELY MEAN SOME LOCALES SAT WILL               
 NOT HIT ZERO INLAND. IN FACT...LATEST GFS...WHICH AGREES WITH THE              
 ECMWF...SHOWS TEMPS AT KIWD REMAINING BLO ZERO FM FRI NIGHT THROUGH            
 MON. WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT THE UPCOMING COLD IN HWO.                      
 &&                                                                             
 .MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                            
 LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 PM WED MIZ002-003              
 LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 PM WED MIZ006-007             
 LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 PM WED MIZ001                 
 LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM WED MIZ084                
 HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING EAST 1/2 LAKE SUPERIOR.                           
 &&                                                                             
 $$                                                                             
 AJ (UPDATE)                                                                    
 JLA (PREV DISCUSSION)                                                          
</pre> mi                                                                       

 AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                       
 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN                             
 335 PM CST WED JAN 31 2007                                                     
 .DISCUSSION...                                                                 
 BAND OF SNOW WITH FAIRLY SIG 850-700 MB THETA E ADVECTION AS                   
 DEPICTED BUT RUC HAS MOSTLY MOVED OFF INTO WI BUT REMAINS OF UPPER TROF        
 MOVING ACROSS REST OF AREA THIS EVENING. FAIRLY SIG TROP LOWERING              
 WITH THIS TROF..AND SIMILAR FORCING WILL BE MOVING INTO THE AREA               
 BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND AGAIN FRIDAY AFTERNOON. WILL FOLLOW THE              
 GFS ON TIMING AND IS VERY CLOSE TO ECMWF/UKMET. THE FIRST BLAST OF             
 COLD AIR ARRIVES THURSDAY NIGHT...BUT THE STRONGER SURGE WILL BE               
 FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH MORE DANGEROUS WIND CHILLS. THE UPPER JET WILL             
 BE CLOSER TO THE AXIS OF STRONG LOW LEVEL COLD ADVECTION ON                    
 FRIDAY NIGHT. STILL MAY NEED AN ADVISORY IN WESTERN CWA ON THURSDAY            
 NIGHT WITH THE COLD ADVECTION/WIND CHILLS/BLOWING SNOW POTENTIAL.              
 THE LIKELY POPS STILL LOOK GOOD FOR THE TROUGH THURSDAY                        
 AFTERNOON/NIGHT BUT WILL SPEED UP THE ONSET A BIT. HAVE PAINTED                
 IN A SMALL POP/ABOVE GUID/ FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT BASED ON                 
 THE ABOVE MENTIONED FORCING AS WELL. THE ARCTIC AIR REMAINS                    
 ENTRENCHED FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEK WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.             
 HAVE DECREASED CLOUD COVER DRAMATICALLY IN THE SKY GRIDS WITH THE              
 ARCTIC AIR IN PLACE.                                                           
 &&                                                                             
 .MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                            
 MN...NONE.                                                                     
 WI...NONE.                                                                     
 &&                                                                             
 $$                                                                             
 JPR                                                                            
</pre> mn                                                                       

 AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                       
 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS                                            
 830 PM CST WED JAN 31 2007                                                     
 .DISCUSSION...SO FAR THE FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK. AFTER AN EARLIER             
 UPDATE TO EXPAND THE ADV AREA FOR THREE MORE COUNTIES THE FORECAST             
 HAS GONE ABOUT AS EXPECTED. MOST PLACES ACROSS NRN MS AND SERN AR              
 HAVE REPORTED SLEET WITH EVEN SOME LIGHT SN AT THE ONSET. THE WAY              
 EVERYTHING IS GOING WE WILL LIKELY NEED TO SEE THE INTENSITY PICK UP           
 BEFORE WE START TO SEE ANY ISSUES ACROSS OUR NORTH. THIS WILL LIKELY           
 HAPPEN IN A FEW HRS AS HEAVIER BANDS OF PRECIP HAVE BEEN WORKING NE            
 THROUGH WRN LOUISIANA FROM THE COAST. LOOK FOR THESE BANDS TO MOVE             
 INTO THE DELTA AREA AROUND 4Z WITH MODERATE SLEET...SNOW TO START.             
 IT STILL LOOKS LIKE THE SRN 2/3RDS OF THE CWA WILL ALL TRANSITION TO           
 LIQUID AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE NRN 3RD COULD BECOME TRICKY AS THE LL               
 WARM PROVIDING MORE OF A CONCERN FOR FZRA AFTER MIDNIGHT. THIS IS              
 ESPECIALLY SO NORTH OF THE HWY 82 CORRIDOR AROUND LOCATIONS LIKE               
 CLEVELAND AND GRENADA WHERE THE RUC SNDGS SHOW THE POSSIBILITY OF              
 FZRA FOR A 3 TO 6 HRS. WILL KEEP AN EYE ON THIS TO SEE IF ANY                  
 UPDATES NEED TO BE MADE TO THE FORECAST AND ADV. NO UPDATE NEEDED TO           
 THE ZFP OR GRIDS AT THIS TIME. /CAB/                                           
 &&                                                                             
 .PREV DISCUSSION...ADVISORY ISSUED FOR NRN TIER ZONES FOR WINTER               
 WEATHER TONIGHT. WILL SEE A RAIN/SLEET MIX AS FAR SOUTH AS                     
 INTERSTATE 20 TONIGHT BUT THE BEST CHANCE FOR LIGHT ACCUMULATION               
 WILL BE IN THE COLDEST AIR THAT SITS ALONG THE NRN EDGE OF THE                 
 FORECAST AREA.                                                                 
 A COLD AND VERY DRY AIR MASS HAS SETTLED OVER THE REGION.                      
 EVAPORATIVE COOLING WILL PRODUCE FREEZING TEMPERATURES AT AND JUST             
 ABOVE THE SURFACE OVER NRN ZONES AT THE ONSET OF PRECIP THIS                   
 EVENING. FREEZING TEMPERATURES IN THE ADVISORY AREA...FROM CLEVELAND           
 TO COLUMBUS...WILL BE DEEP ENOUGH FOR A MIXTURE OF SNOW AND SLEET              
 EARLY TONIGHT. THE TIER FURTHER S WILL SEE RAIN AND SLEET MIXED WITH           
 SNOW AND FREEZING RAIN BUT LITTLE OR NO ACCUMULATION OF WINTER                 
 PRECIP IS EXPECTED. WET BULB ZERO TEMPS WILL HOVER IN A LAYER ABOVE            
 THE SURFACE INTO CENTRAL ZONES RESULTING IN THE POSSIBILITY OF A               
 RAIN AND SLEET MIXTURE INTO THE I-20 CORRIDOR BUT SLEET WILL MELT              
 RAPIDLY ON CONTACT WITH THE GROUND. THE ADVECTION OF WARMER AIR                
 AROUND 850 MB AND COOLING OF LOWER LEVELS NEAR THE SURFACE AFTER THE           
 ONSET OF RAIN HAS REQUIRED A VARIED PATTERN OF WEATHER TYPES FROM              
 NORTH TO SOUTH FOR TONIGHT. DIFFERENCES IN FORECAST                            
 TEMPERATURES...ESPECIALLY AT THE SURFACE...OF ONLY A DEGREE OR TWO             
 WILL MEAN A POTENTIAL CHANGE IN THE WEATHER TYPE FOR MANY NRN AND              
 CENTRAL ZONES. PRECIP HAS DEVELOPED OVER WRN ZONES THIS AFTERNOON              
 WITH RAIN/SLEET MIXTURE ALREADY REPORTED OVER NE LA. TEMPERATURES              
 WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE BY MIDNIGHT OVER MOST AREAS WHEN THE AIR                
 COLUMN BEGINS TO MOISTEN AND EVAPORATIVE COOLING IS SHUT DOWN. WE              
 WILL MAINTAIN A CHANCE OF A RAIN/SLEET MIX FOR AREAS ALONG AND N OF            
 THE HIGHWAY 82 CORRIDOR AFTER MIDNIGHT BUT MOST OTHER AREAS WILL SEE           
 PRECIP TURN TO ALL RAIN BY OR SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT.                          
 RAIN WILL BE WIDESPREAD OVER THE FORECAST AREA BY SUNRISE THURSDAY             
 AND TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE FREEZING ACROSS THE REGION. THE                 
 SURFACE TROUGH LIFTS INTO SRN ZONES BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON...                   
 POSITIONING THE ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT IN SE MS BY 18Z. WILL MAINTAIN           
 CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS THOSE AREAS TOMORROW AFTERNOON BUT THE TRACK           
 LOOKS TOO FAR S TO SUPPORT ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR SEVERE CONVECTION.           
 UNDERCUT MOS HIGH TEMPS SLIGHTLY FOR TOMORROW CONSIDERING RAIN                 
 SHIELD AND SRN EXTENT OF SURFACE TROUGH.                                       
 THE BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA BY THURSDAY                  
 EVENING. BEHIND THIS SYSTEM...SFC HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT                 
 PLAINS STATES WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST.             
 ISENTROPIC ANALYSIS AT THE 285-295K LEVEL AND REMAINING MOISTURE               
 (PWATS AROUND 0.5-0.8 INCH) SHOW A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS FOR               
 FRIDAY...MAINLY IN THE MORNING. WENT AHEAD AND STAYED WITH GUI FOR             
 THU NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING.  ANY SHOWERS WILL NOT LAST LONG AS            
 THE ECMWF AND GFS BOTH SHOW HIGH PRESSURE AND NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT             
 TAKING OVER THE REGION TO START CLEARING OVER THE ARKLAMISS BY                 
 SATURDAY AFTERNOON.  THE ARCTIC AIRMASS THAT IS MOVING INTO THE                
 REGION WILL COMBINE WITH CLEAR SKIES TO ALLOW LOW TEMPERATURES TO              
 AGAIN DIP DOWN INTO THE 20S FOR THE END OF THE WEEKEND INTO THE                
 BEGINNING OF THE WORK WEEK.  THE MAIN CHANGES MADE TO TEMPERATURES             
 WERE TO LOWER JUST A BIT ON FRIDAY NIGHT.  SKIES WILL BE CLEARING AS           
 HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN...AND 925MB TEMPS LOOK TO RANGE FROM 0C TO              
 -8C FOR THIS TIME PERIOD.  DECIDED TO JUST BUMP TEMPERATURES DOWN A            
 DEGREE OR TWO FOR THIS TIME PERIOD.                                            
 FOR THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST (PAST SATURDAY NIGHT)...NO            
 MAJOR CHANGES WERE NECESSARY.  THE PREVIOUS LONG TERM DISCUSSION               
 FOLLOWS. /14/                                                                  
 PREVIOUS LONG TERM DISCUSSION...THE DOMINANT HUDSON BAY LOW PATTERN            
 WILL CONTINUE TO BRING SEVERAL COLD EPISODES FOR THE NEXT ONE TO TWO           
 WEEKS IN MOSTLY DRY NORTHWEST FLOW. WITHOUT MUCH TO FOCUS ON                   
 PRECIP-WISE...THE PRIMARY FORECAST QUESTIONS CONCERN THE INTENSITY             
 OF COLD AS THE FORECAST AREA WILL EXIST ON THE SRN EDGE OF THE POLAR           
 VORTEX. AT THIS TIME...IT LOOKS AS IF THE CENTER OF COLD AIR                   
 ANOMALIES WILL STAY NORTH OF THE REGION...BUT THE NEXT FEW SURGES OF           
 COLD AIR WILL BE SHALLOW AND OF TRUE ARCTIC ORIGINS FROM NEAR THE              
 NORTH POLE. GIVEN RECENT GFS PERFORMANCES WITH SUCH AIRMASSES...HAVE           
 OPTED TO TREND TOWARD COOLER GFS MEAN ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE AND CUT MEX            
 GUIDANCE FROM FRIDAY NIGHT ONWARD (AT LEAST FOR PORTIONS OF THE                
 FORECAST AREA). /EC/                                                           
 &&                                                                             
 .AVIATION...WIDESPREAD WINTER PRECIP WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION            
 THIS EVENING ALONG AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 20 WITH THE BEST COVERAGE           
 OVER AREAS ALONG AND NORTH OF HIGHWAY 82. HAVE RECEIVED REPORTS OF             
 SLEET OVER NE LA AND TVR THIS AFTERNOON AS INITIAL PRECIP AREA MOVES           
 IN. CLOUD HEIGHTS WILL GRADUALLY DROP AS PRECIP INCREASES IN                   
 COVERAGE AND INTENSITY TONIGHT WITH MVFR CONDITIONS MANY LOCATIONS             
 BY MIDNIGHT AND IFR CONDITIONS BY SUNRISE.                                     
 &&                                                                             
 .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                               
 JACKSON       36  45  36  51 /  98  97  25  16                                 
 MERIDIAN      35  49  37  53 / 100  96  33  16                                 
 VICKSBURG     36  42  37  50 /  96  89  25  17                                 
 HATTIESBURG   40  53  39  57 / 100  99  29  16                                 
 NATCHEZ       38  46  34  53 /  98  91  22  16                                 
 GREENVILLE    32  38  33  43 /  99  95  39  18                                 
 GREENWOOD     30  39  34  46 / 100  97  37  18                                 
 &&                                                                             
 .JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                            
 MS...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST THURSDAY FOR MSZ018-019-           
      025>034.                                                                  
 LA...NONE.                                                                     
 AR...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST THURSDAY FOR ARZ074-075.           
 &&                                                                             
 $$                                                                             
 03/14                                                                          
</pre> ms                                                                       

 AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                       
 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS                                            
 725 PM CST WED JAN 31 2007                                                     
 .DISCUSSION...DOING A QUICK UPDATE TO INCLUDE EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN             
 ARKANSAS AND WASHINGTON COUNTY IN THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY.                 
 CURRENT OBS AND RUC DATA SHOWS THAT FROZEN PRECIP MAY BECOME MORE OF           
 A PROBLEM IN THOSE AREAS. RUC IS NOW SHOWING THE WET BULB ZERO LINE            
 SOUTH TO THE LA BORDER AND DUE EAST ACROSS CENTRAL MS. DECENT PRECIP           
 IS CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS THE DELTA WITH ANOTHER BATCH OF PRECIP              
 HOT ON ITS HEELS. THIS WILL LIKELY CAUSE HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS ON               
 BRIDGES AND EXPOSED SFCS IN THE NEXT FEW HRS. /CAB/                            
 &&                                                                             
 .PREV DISCUSSION...ADVISORY ISSUED FOR NRN TIER ZONES FOR WINTER               
 WEATHER TONIGHT. WILL SEE A RAIN/SLEET MIX AS FAR SOUTH AS                     
 INTERSTATE 20 TONIGHT BUT THE BEST CHANCE FOR LIGHT ACCUMULATION               
 WILL BE IN THE COLDEST AIR THAT SITS ALONG THE NRN EDGE OF THE                 
 FORECAST AREA.                                                                 
 A COLD AND VERY DRY AIR MASS HAS SETTLED OVER THE REGION.                      
 EVAPORATIVE COOLING WILL PRODUCE FREEZING TEMPERATURES AT AND JUST             
 ABOVE THE SURFACE OVER NRN ZONES AT THE ONSET OF PRECIP THIS                   
 EVENING. FREEZING TEMPERATURES IN THE ADVISORY AREA...FROM CLEVELAND           
 TO COLUMBUS...WILL BE DEEP ENOUGH FOR A MIXTURE OF SNOW AND SLEET              
 EARLY TONIGHT. THE TIER FURTHER S WILL SEE RAIN AND SLEET MIXED WITH           
 SNOW AND FREEZING RAIN BUT LITTLE OR NO ACCUMULATION OF WINTER                 
 PRECIP IS EXPECTED. WET BULB ZERO TEMPS WILL HOVER IN A LAYER ABOVE            
 THE SURFACE INTO CENTRAL ZONES RESULTING IN THE POSSIBILITY OF A               
 RAIN AND SLEET MIXTURE INTO THE I-20 CORRIDOR BUT SLEET WILL MELT              
 RAPIDLY ON CONTACT WITH THE GROUND. THE ADVECTION OF WARMER AIR                
 AROUND 850 MB AND COOLING OF LOWER LEVELS NEAR THE SURFACE AFTER THE           
 ONSET OF RAIN HAS REQUIRED A VARIED PATTERN OF WEATHER TYPES FROM              
 NORTH TO SOUTH FOR TONIGHT. DIFFERENCES IN FORECAST                            
 TEMPERATURES...ESPECIALLY AT THE SURFACE...OF ONLY A DEGREE OR TWO             
 WILL MEAN A POTENTIAL CHANGE IN THE WEATHER TYPE FOR MANY NRN AND              
 CENTRAL ZONES. PRECIP HAS DEVELOPED OVER WRN ZONES THIS AFTERNOON              
 WITH RAIN/SLEET MIXTURE ALREADY REPORTED OVER NE LA. TEMPERATURES              
 WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE BY MIDNIGHT OVER MOST AREAS WHEN THE AIR                
 COLUMN BEGINS TO MOISTEN AND EVAPORATIVE COOLING IS SHUT DOWN. WE              
 WILL MAINTAIN A CHANCE OF A RAIN/SLEET MIX FOR AREAS ALONG AND N OF            
 THE HIGHWAY 82 CORRIDOR AFTER MIDNIGHT BUT MOST OTHER AREAS WILL SEE           
 PRECIP TURN TO ALL RAIN BY OR SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT.                          
 RAIN WILL BE WIDESPREAD OVER THE FORECAST AREA BY SUNRISE THURSDAY             
 AND TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE FREEZING ACROSS THE REGION. THE                 
 SURFACE TROUGH LIFTS INTO SRN ZONES BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON...                   
 POSITIONING THE ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT IN SE MS BY 18Z. WILL MAINTAIN           
 CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS THOSE AREAS TOMORROW AFTERNOON BUT THE TRACK           
 LOOKS TOO FAR S TO SUPPORT ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR SEVERE CONVECTION.           
 UNDERCUT MOS HIGH TEMPS SLIGHTLY FOR TOMORROW CONSIDERING RAIN                 
 SHIELD AND SRN EXTENT OF SURFACE TROUGH.                                       
 THE BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA BY THURSDAY                  
 EVENING. BEHIND THIS SYSTEM...SFC HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT                 
 PLAINS STATES WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST.             
 ISENTROPIC ANALYSIS AT THE 285-295K LEVEL AND REMAINING MOISTURE               
 (PWATS AROUND 0.5-0.8 INCH) SHOW A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS FOR               
 FRIDAY...MAINLY IN THE MORNING. WENT AHEAD AND STAYED WITH GUI FOR             
 THU NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING.  ANY SHOWERS WILL NOT LAST LONG AS            
 THE ECMWF AND GFS BOTH SHOW HIGH PRESSURE AND NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT             
 TAKING OVER THE REGION TO START CLEARING OVER THE ARKLAMISS BY                 
 SATURDAY AFTERNOON.  THE ARCTIC AIRMASS THAT IS MOVING INTO THE                
 REGION WILL COMBINE WITH CLEAR SKIES TO ALLOW LOW TEMPERATURES TO              
 AGAIN DIP DOWN INTO THE 20S FOR THE END OF THE WEEKEND INTO THE                
 BEGINNING OF THE WORK WEEK.  THE MAIN CHANGES MADE TO TEMPERATURES             
 WERE TO LOWER JUST A BIT ON FRIDAY NIGHT.  SKIES WILL BE CLEARING AS           
 HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN...AND 925MB TEMPS LOOK TO RANGE FROM 0C TO              
 -8C FOR THIS TIME PERIOD.  DECIDED TO JUST BUMP TEMPERATURES DOWN A            
 DEGREE OR TWO FOR THIS TIME PERIOD.                                            
 FOR THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST (PAST SATURDAY NIGHT)...NO            
 MAJOR CHANGES WERE NECESSARY.  THE PREVIOUS LONG TERM DISCUSSION               
 FOLLOWS. /14/                                                                  
 PREVIOUS LONG TERM DISCUSSION...THE DOMINANT HUDSON BAY LOW PATTERN            
 WILL CONTINUE TO BRING SEVERAL COLD EPISODES FOR THE NEXT ONE TO TWO           
 WEEKS IN MOSTLY DRY NORTHWEST FLOW. WITHOUT MUCH TO FOCUS ON                   
 PRECIP-WISE...THE PRIMARY FORECAST QUESTIONS CONCERN THE INTENSITY             
 OF COLD AS THE FORECAST AREA WILL EXIST ON THE SRN EDGE OF THE POLAR           
 VORTEX. AT THIS TIME...IT LOOKS AS IF THE CENTER OF COLD AIR                   
 ANOMALIES WILL STAY NORTH OF THE REGION...BUT THE NEXT FEW SURGES OF           
 COLD AIR WILL BE SHALLOW AND OF TRUE ARCTIC ORIGINS FROM NEAR THE              
 NORTH POLE. GIVEN RECENT GFS PERFORMANCES WITH SUCH AIRMASSES...HAVE           
 OPTED TO TREND TOWARD COOLER GFS MEAN ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE AND CUT MEX            
 GUIDANCE FROM FRIDAY NIGHT ONWARD (AT LEAST FOR PORTIONS OF THE                
 FORECAST AREA). /EC/                                                           
 &&                                                                             
 .AVIATION...WIDESPREAD WINTER PRECIP WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION            
 THIS EVENING ALONG AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 20 WITH THE BEST COVERAGE           
 OVER AREAS ALONG AND NORTH OF HIGHWAY 82. HAVE RECEIVED REPORTS OF             
 SLEET OVER NE LA AND TVR THIS AFTERNOON AS INITIAL PRECIP AREA MOVES           
 IN. CLOUD HEIGHTS WILL GRADUALLY DROP AS PRECIP INCREASES IN                   
 COVERAGE AND INTENSITY TONIGHT WITH MVFR CONDITIONS MANY LOCATIONS             
 BY MIDNIGHT AND IFR CONDITIONS BY SUNRISE.                                     
 &&                                                                             
 .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                               
 JACKSON       36  45  36  51 /  98  97  25  16                                 
 MERIDIAN      35  49  37  53 / 100  96  33  16                                 
 VICKSBURG     36  42  37  50 /  96  89  25  17                                 
 HATTIESBURG   40  53  39  57 / 100  99  29  16                                 
 NATCHEZ       38  46  34  53 /  98  91  22  16                                 
 GREENVILLE    32  38  33  43 /  99  95  39  18                                 
 GREENWOOD     30  39  34  46 / 100  97  37  18                                 
 &&                                                                             
 .JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                            
 MS...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST THURSDAY FOR MSZ018-019-           
      025>034.                                                                  
 LA...NONE.                                                                     
 AR...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST THURSDAY FOR ARZ074-075.           
 &&                                                                             
 $$                                                                             
 03/14                                                                          
</pre> ms                                                                       

 AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                       
 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC                                            
 940 PM EST TUE JAN 30 2007                                                     
 .UPDATE...                                                                     
 &&                                                                             
 .SHORT TERM /REST OF TONIGHT/...                                               
 DRY COLD FRONT THAT WILL BRING THE SECOND ARCTIC SURGE INTO CENTRAL            
 NC IN THE PAST FEW DAYS...IS CURRENTLY LOCATED BETWEEN THE TRIAD AND           
 TRIANGLE. THE WEAK LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE FROPA IS PRODUCING A               
 BAND OF BROKEN MID CLOUDS WITH CEILINGS AOA 7.5KFT...WHICH MATCHES             
 UP WELL WITH THE SHALLOW MOIST LAYER BETWEEN 700-800MB SEEN ON THE             
 00Z/31 GSO RAOB. LIGHT WINDS AND ABSENCE OF CLOUDS HAS ALLOWED                 
 TEMPERATURES IN THE NE PIEDMONT AND COASTAL PLAIN TO COOL FASTER               
 THAN OTHER AREAS THIS EVENING...WHILE TEMPERATURES HAVE ACTUALLY ROSE          
 A FEW DEGREES IN THE PAST HOUR OR TWO IN WESTERN AND CENTRAL AREAS             
 WHERE THE CLOUDS AND STRONGER WINDS HAVE PROMOTED MIXING. RUC TIMING           
 OF PUSHING THE COLD FRONT EAST OF THE AREA SHORTLY AFTER 06Z APPEARS           
 REALISTIC...WITH CAA RESULTING IN TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS                   
 GRADUALLY FALLING OVERNIGHT. THE STRONGEST CAA WILL OCCUR AFTER                
 DAYBREAK...BEHIND THE VIGOROUS VORT. MAX CURRENTLY DIVING SOUTHEAST            
 INTO THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY. TOUGH CALL ON WHETHER CAA WILL BE STRONG           
 ENOUGH TO RESULT IN UPPER TEENS TO AROUND 20 IN THE NW PIEDMONT AS             
 CURRENT MIN GRIDS INDICATE...AS MIXING WILL BE SUFFICE AS NOT TO               
 ALLOW FURTHER COOLING. WILL RAISE MINS TONIGHT IN THE WEST TO LOWER            
 20S...OTHERWISE NO OTHER CHANGES EXPECTED.                                     
 &&                                                                             
 .PREV DISCUSSION...                                                            
 /ISSUED 230 PM EST TUE JAN 30 2007/                                            
 SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...                                         
 TONIGHT/WEDNESDAY: THE DRY SURFACE COLD FRONT AND ATTENDANT MID                
 LEVEL VORTICITY MAX WILL DROP THROUGH THE AREA LATE TONIGHT...                 
 INTRODUCING THE POLAR AIR MASS BENEATH WHICH DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE              
 SINGLE DIGITS TO JUST BELOW ZERO. EXPECT A FEW CLOUDS THIS EVENING             
 THEN MOSTLY CLEAR OVERNIGHT WITH WINDS SWINGING AROUND TO NW. LOWS             
 19 TO 26. WEDNESDAY SHOULD START OFF WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE... THEN           
 MID AND HIGH CLOUDINESS OVER NM AND W TX WILL SWEEP OVER THE AREA...           
 RESULTING IN INCREASED CLOUDS INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING. THICKNESSES              
 INDICATE HIGHS OF 37 TO 43.                                                    
 WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY: ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE BEGINS IN EARNEST           
 LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING AS A 40-50 KT 850 MB JET            
 LIFTS OUT OF THE GULF COAST STATES. THE 12Z NAM HAS SPED UP ITS                
 PRECIP ONSET CONSIDERABLY AND IS NOW CLOSER TO THE GFS SOLUTION.               
 HAVE GONE CLOSER TO THE GFS BASED ON ITS BETTER CONSISTENCY. OVERALL           
 PATTERN LOOKS TO BE AN IN SITU DAMMING EVENT WITH A MILLER B                   
 CYCLOGENESIS PATTERN. DESPITE THE FACT THAT THE PARENT HIGH CONTAINS           
 AND WILL BE DEPOSITING SOME VERY COLD DRY AIR OVER THE REGION...               
 SINCE IT IS TRANSITORY IN NATURE AND WILL BE SHIFTING OUT INTO THE             
 ATLANTIC... THE LOW LEVEL FEED OF COLD AIR IS UNLIKELY TO BE                   
 SUFFICIENTLY LONG LASTING THURSDAY FOR ANY MAJOR ICE ACCUMULATION...           
 AND EXPECT ACCRUAL TO BE SHUT OFF BY LATENT HEAT RELEASE BY THURSDAY           
 AFTERNOON. WILL ISSUE A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT FOR THE WINTRY               
 WEATHER POTENTIAL... BUT HOLD OFF ON SPECIFIC AMOUNTS.                         
 GFS PARTIAL THICKNESSES AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE AN ONSET OF            
 PRIMARILY SNOW MIXED WITH SLEET IN THE WEST PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NC             
 THURSDAY MORNING... WITH A SMALLER CHANCE OF A WINTRY MIX IN THE               
 EAST. SOUNDINGS START OUT NEAR FREEZING ISOTHERMAL... BUT AT THIS              
 TIME... WITH THE ABSENCE OF STRONG PVA OR JET FORCING... IT LOOKS              
 LIKE PRECIP RATES WILL NOT BE STRONG ENOUGH THURSDAY MORNING TO                
 ALLOW FOR BURSTS OF SNOW THAT COULD LEAD TO NOTABLE ACCUMULATION...            
 ALTHOUGH THIS POTENTIAL CERTAINLY MUST BE WATCHED. THE MID LEVELS              
 THEN WARM RAPIDLY IN THE AFTERNOON... LEADING TO A QUICK TRANSITION            
 TO MOSTLY RAIN EVERYWHERE BY 00Z FRIDAY. HAVE LOWS OF 23-27                    
 WEDNESDAY NIGHT... THEN HAVE A NON-DIURNAL TEMPERATURE TREND... WITH           
 HIGHS THURSDAY 32-39... AND ABOUT 2 DEGREES LOWER FOR LOWS THURSDAY            
 NIGHT. WITH A WEAK SURFACE PATTERN BEHIND THE SPINUP COASTAL LOW AND           
 PLENTY OF RESIDUAL MOISTURE FRIDAY MORNING... EXPECT SLOW CLEARING             
 DURING THE DAY. WILL HAVE HIGHS 45-52... ALTHOUGH IF CLEARING IS               
 MUCH SLOWER FRIDAY... THESE READINGS MAY NEED TO COME DOWN MORE IN             
 LATER FORECASTS. -GIH                                                          
 LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...                                    
 BROAD L/W TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN U.S. WILL RESULT IN DRY AND CHILLY           
 CONDITIONS ACROSS CENTRAL NC THROUGH THE EXTENDED. MODEL GUIDANCE              
 OFFER VARYING TIMING SOLUTIONS TO THE NEXT SYSTEM IN THE SOUTHERN              
 STREAM. THE ECMWF KEEPS BEST MOISTURE AND LIFT SUPPRESSED WELL SOUTH           
 OF THE AREA. PREVIOUS RUNS OF THE GFS HAD SPREAD MOISTURE WELL NWWD            
 INTO THE COLDER AIR SUN BUT THE RECENT RUN HAS RETRACTED AND HAS               
 DEEPEST MOISTURE S-SE OF AREA. THE CANADIAN PLACES MORE EMPHASIS ON            
 THE NORTHERN STREAM WITH A MILLER A SCENARIO ON SATURDAY WITH LOW              
 TRACKING WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS. ECMWF HAS BEEN CONSISTENT AND WITH             
 THE LATEST GFS TRENDING TOWARD A SIMILAR SCENARIO, PLAN TO KEEP                
 SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY PERIOD DRY FOR NOW.                                   
 GFS ADVECTS BITTERLY COLD AIR INTO REGION DAY 6 AND 7 WITH LOW LEVEL           
 THICKNESSES FALLING INTO THE 1220S BY TUESDAY MORNING. SAW A SIMILAR           
 TREND YESTERDAY FOR MON AND IT HAS SINCE RECOVERED INTO THE 1250S.             
 NEEDLESS...EXPECT MAX TEMPS TO AVERAGE 10-15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL              
 THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH THE COLDEST WEATHER EXPECTED MON INTO TUE.             
 POTENTIAL FOR MAX TEMPS TO BE COLDER BY DAY6/7 BUT PLENTY OF TIME TO           
 FINE TUNE. -WSS                                                                
 AVIATION /18Z-18Z/...                                                          
 DRY AIR MASS OVER REGION WILL RESULT IN CLEAR SKIES THROUGH 18Z                
 WEDNESDAY. MAY SEE AN INCREASE IN CIRRUS TOWARD 18Z WED AHEAD OF               
 APPROACHING/DEVELOPING SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM. REINFORCING SHOT OF             
 COLD DRY AIR WILL OVERSPREAD CENTRAL NC TONIGHT. SURFACE FRONT                 
 ASSOCIATED WITH NEW SURGE WILL CROSS REGION BETWEEN 00-05Z. THIS               
 WILL RESULT IN A STEADY NW WIND OVERNIGHT WITH PERIODIC GUSTS AROUND           
 20KTS. -WSS                                                                    
 &&                                                                             
 .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                            
 NONE.                                                                          
 &&                                                                             
 $$                                                                             
 SHORT TERM...CBL                                                               
</pre> nc                                                                       

 AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                       
 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND                                        
 809 PM CST TUE JAN 30 2007                                                     
 .UPDATE...                                                                     
 MAIN UPDATE CONCERN IS WITH TEMPERATURES. SFC LOW LOCATED OVER                 
 YORKTON SASK AT 00Z AND THIS IS RIGHT ON WITH MODEL LOCATION.                  
 USING 21Z AND INCOMING 00Z RUC FOR GUIDANCE SHOWS LOW DROPPING                 
 SOUTHEAST TO NEAR THE GRAND FORKS AREA AROUND 12Z. THIS ALSO FITS              
 THE INCOMING 00Z NAM GUIDANCE AS WELL. CANADIAN RADARS AND METARS              
 SHOW LIGHT SNOW NORTHEAST OF SFC LOW CENTER...WITH ANOTHER AREA OF             
 SNOW FURTHER WEST ASSOC WITH VORT MAX AND 500 MB HEIGHT FALL                   
 CENTER IN SE ALBERTA/SW SASK. THE VORT OUT WEST WILL DROP INTO ERN             
 MT AND SW ND DURING THE NEXT 12 HOURS AND NOT GREATLY AFFECT OUR               
 AREA. LIGHT SNOW ASSOC WITH SFC LOW WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST AND LIKELY             
 AFFECT NORTHEAST ND AFTER 08Z AND THEN SPREAD THROUGH THE FCST                 
 AREA DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS THRU MID MORNING ON WEDNESDAY. DID              
 SLIGHT POP TIMING RE-ADJUSTMENTS FOR THIS THINKING. AS FOR                     
 TEMPS...SOME DROP SEEN IN THE SOUTHEASTERN FCST AREA WITH WADENA               
 AT ZERO...BUT OTHERWISE SOUTHWEST WIND AND THICKENING HIGH CLOUDS              
 HOLDING TEMPS UP WITH ONLY MINIMAL FALL SINCE 22Z. WITH THICKER                
 CLOUDS TO CONTINUE TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA WOULD EXPECT LITTLE                  
 CHANGE IN TEMPS TONIGHT AND MIGHT RISE IN SPOTS. DID ADJUST TEMP               
 GRIDDS TONIGHT THRU 18Z WED FOR THIS THINKING.                                 
 &&                                                                             
 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 228 PM CST TUE JAN 30 2007/                        
 SHORT TERM...                                                                  
 CURRENTLY...ONLY HIGH CLOUDINESS COMBINED WITH SOME MIXING IS                  
 ALLOWING DECENT TEMPERATURE RECOVERY THIS AFTERNOON AS A MORE                  
 SUBSTANTIAL MID LEVEL DECK MOVES FROM MONTANA/SASKATCHEWAN INTO                
 NW ND AHEAD OF VORT/SHORT WAVE IN CENTRAL SASKATCHEWAN. WITH                   
 RESPECT TO GUIDANCE...WILL TEND TOWARDS THE GFS AND ITS                        
 PROGRESSIVE MOVEMENT OF SYSTEMS AND ITS RECENT CONSISTENCY.                    
 TONIGHT/WEDNESDAY...FIRST OF TWO CLIPPERS DESCENDS THIS EVENING                
 INTO NORTHERN FORECAST AREA DURING THE OVERNIGHT. FCST SOUNDINGS               
 INDICATE ENOUGH MOISTURE TO GO WITH AT LEAST CHANCE POPS                       
 PROGRESSING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF SYSTEM                
 ALONG WITH THICKENING CLOUD AND SW WIND MAY YIELD NON- DIURNAL                 
 TEMP TREND OVERNIGHT...THIS CAN BE REFINED BY THE EVENING CREW                 
 MEMBERS. DON`T SEE MUCH COLD PUNCH BEHIND THIS FIRST SYSTEM SO                 
 MINIMAL PROBLEMS WITH BLOWING/DRIFTING ARE ANTICIPATED AT THIS                 
 TIME. HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY NUDGES IN BEHIND DEPARTING CLIPPER                 
 LATER WEDNESDAY...WHICH WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS THE MORE POTENT                 
 SYSTEM LURKING TO THE NORTH TAKES AIM ON THE FORECAST AREA FOR                 
 THURSDAY.                                                                      
 THURSDAY/FRIDAY...NEXT SYSTEM MORE LOADED IN TERMS OF LIFT...GRADIENT          
 AND DEEP LAYERED MOISTURE. THESE FACTORS COMPUTE TO LIKELY POPS THURSDAY       
 AFTERNOON FOLLOWED BY ROBUST SURGE OF COLD AIR ADVECTION THURSDAY              
 NIGHT. NORTHERLY WINDS WITH SOLID LINKAGE (ALBEIT PERHAPS NOT AS               
 STRONG AS PRIOR RUNS) WILL PRODUCE VENTURI EFFECT FOR THE VALLEY.              
 ALL IN ALL THIS INCREASES THE POTENTIAL FOR A BLOWING SNOW/VERY                
 LOW VISIBILITY EVENT PRIMARILY OVER OPEN COUNTRY...H925 LEVEL                  
 WINDS CLOSE TO 30 KTS LIKELY TO TRANSLATE DOWN TO 20-25 KTS WITH               
 HIGHER GUSTS AT SURFACE...WITH AREA OF MAXIMUM PRESSURE RISES                  
 LOOKING NOW TO BE OVER CENTRAL ND.                                             
 SATURATED COLUMN TO AT LEAST 600 MB SHOULD PERSIST ON                          
 FRIDAY...WINDS DIMINISH...BUT EVEN WITH LACK OF OTHER                          
 PARAMETERS...MOISTURE WILL BE SUFFICIENT TO KEEP SNOW SHOWER                   
 ACTIVITY ALIVE.                                                                
 LONG TERM (SAT THROUGH TUE)...LONG RANGE MODELS REMAIN IN PRETTY               
 GOOD AGREEMENT FOR EXTENDED FORECAST. 500MB TROF AND SURFACE LOW               
 START MOVING E OF THE AREA ON SAT...KEEPING A NW FLOW OVER THE                 
 REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND. VERY COLD TEMPERATURES WITH WIND WILL              
 CONTINUE ON SAT...UNTIL THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM BUILDS IN             
 FOR SUN. THEN...THE COLD TEMPERATURES REMAIN...BUT WITH LESS WIND              
 FOR SUN AND SUN NIGHT. ON MON...THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE STARTS               
 MOVING E AND S-SE RETURN FLOW SETS UP...KEEPING THE COLD AIR MASS              
 OVER THE REGION FOR ONE MORE DAY.  AS FAR AS TEMPERATURES...KEPT               
 MUCH BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE EXTENDED FORECAST.                               
 FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
 ND...NONE.                                                                     
 MN...NONE.                                                                     
 $$                                                                             
 RIDDLE/                                                                        
</pre> nd                                                                       

 AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                       
 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK                                             
 954 PM CST WED JAN 31 2007                                                     
 .UPDATE...                                                                     
 A FEW AREAS OF LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE/RAIN CONTINUE OVER PORTIONS              
 OF OKLAHOMA THIS EVENING. SECOND ROUND ORGANIZING OVER WEST TEXAS              
 THIS EVENING AND APPEARS TO BE GOING AS PLANNED. LATEST NAM RUN                
 CONTINUES TO INDICATE FAIRLY PRONOUNCED BAND OF FRONTOGENETICAL                
 FORCING NEAR THE I-40 CORRIDOR TOMORROW MORNING...WHICH RAISES A               
 CONCERN FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF 4 TO 6 INCH TOTALS. LAST RUN OF THE             
 SREF AND 00Z GFS HAVE BACKED OFF...GFS WAY OFF...FROM PREVIOUS                 
 POTENTIAL. GIVEN THE LATEST GUIDANCE...AND THE FACT THAT WE ARE                
 ALREADY MENTIONING BANDED TOTALS OF 4+...WILL HOLD OFF ON A HEAVY              
 SNOW WARNING. MIDSHIFT WILL MONITOR RADAR/SATELLITE TRENDS AND                 
 LATEST GUIDANCE AND ISSUE IF NECESSARY.                                        
 ALSO RAISED POPS CONSIDERABLY ACROSS MAINLY NORTHWEST THIRD OF                 
 OKLAHOMA THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY AS NORTHWEST FLOW SYSTEM MOVES              
 IN. THESE SYSTEM CAN BE VERY EFFICIENT...ESPECIALLY GIVEN                      
 ACCOMPANYING LOW-MID LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE.                                    
 &&                                                                             
 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 406 PM CST WED JAN 31 2007/                        
 DISCUSSION...SNOW THIS MORNING WAS MOST CONCENTRATED OVER                      
 NORTHERN OKLAHOMA...WITH 1 TO 2 INCHES. LIGHT SNOW AND SLEET                   
 ELSEWHERE WAS MORE INTERMITTENT...BUT THE FREEZING DRIZZLE WHICH               
 FOLLOWED HAS GREATLY IMPACTED TRAVEL. THIS OCCURRED AS WESTERLY                
 MID LEVEL WINDS AND SUBSIDENCE REMOVED MOISTURE FROM THE ICE                   
 CRYSTAL GROWTH ZONE...WHILE MOIST ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE CONTINUED AT              
 LOWER LEVELS. THERE IS A DISTINCT BACK EDGE TO THE UPGLIDE PUSHING             
 THROUGH CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA THIS AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT             
 WILL ALSO MOVE INTO WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTH TEXAS THIS                      
 EVENING...SO LOW LEVEL DOWNGLIDE WILL BE THE RULE                              
 OVERNIGHT...HOPEFULLY PREVENTING ANY MORE FREEZING DRIZZLE.                    
 MEANWHILE...WE STILL APPEAR ON TRACK TO RECEIVE A SWATH OF SNOW                
 LATE TONIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING. ALTHOUGH NOT ESPECIALLY                     
 HEAVY...ACCUMULATIONS WILL OCCUR EITHER SIDE OF THE THURSDAY                   
 MORNING COMMUTE...AGAIN IMPACTING TRAVEL. WE ARE ALSO CONCERNED                
 THAT FREEZING RAIN WILL IMPACT PARTS OF SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA AND                  
 WESTERN NORTH TEXAS LATER TONIGHT. ORIGINALLY...THIS WAS EXPECTED              
 TO BE RAIN...BUT TEMPERATURES ARE A COUPLE OF DEGREES COOLER THAN              
 EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON. DEWPOINTS ARE STILL WELL BELOW                        
 FREEZING...AND SURFACE WINDS WILL SWING AROUND TO EAST AND                     
 NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT. THEREFORE...WILL ISSUE A WINTER WEATHER                   
 ADVISORY FOR A ROW OF COUNTIES SOUTH OF THE SNOW ADVISORY. REALLY              
 DIFFICULT TO DRAW THE FREEZING LINE EVEN 12 HOURS AHEAD OF                     
 TIME...BUT OUR ADVISORY WILL BE BASED LARGELY ON THE 18Z RUC                   
 SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND SHORT RANGE ENSEMBLE 850 MB TEMPS.                    
 WHILE MOST AREAS WILL SEE ADDITIONAL PRECIP...THERE IS STILL BELOW             
 AVERAGE CONFIDENCE IN WHERE TO PLACE THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS. THE NAM              
 HAS LATCHED ONTO THE LOW LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS NEAR THE RED                      
 RIVER...WHILE THE GFS PAINTS MORE SNOW ALONG THE MID LEVEL FRONT               
 FROM WESTERN INTO CENTRAL OKLAHOMA. BOTH AREAS ARE LIKELY TO SEE               
 LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS...BUT THE MORE CONSISTENT SIGNAL...AND LESS                
 CHANCE FOR MELTING IS WITH THE ACTIVITY FORECAST TO SURROUND INTERSTATE        
 40 BOTH NORTH AND SOUTH. WILL CONTINUE WITH OUR FORECAST OF 1 TO 3             
 INCHES OF SNOW OVER A BROAD AREA...BUT MESOSCALE BANDING AND/OR                
 SOME WEAK CONVECTION MAY LEAD TO HIGHER TOTALS IN SMALL AREAS.                 
 WHATEVER DOES FALL WILL LIKELY REMAIN ON THE GROUND THROUGH THE                
 WEEKEND...AS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT REMAIN CLOUDY...AND AN               
 ARCTIC FRONT ARRIVES FRIDAY. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL ALSO LINGER               
 IN THE AREA LATE THURSDAY...AND LIGHT SNOW OR FREEZING RAIN SEEMS              
 A POSSIBILITY. WILL INCREASE TO CHANCE POPS ALONG THE STALLED LOW              
 LEVEL FRONT NEAR THE RED RIVER...AND ALONG THE APPROACHING ARCTIC              
 FRONT IN THE NORTHWEST. EXPECT THIS PRECIP WOULD BE LIGHT...BUT AS             
 WE HAVE SEEN...IT DOES NOT TAKE MUCH TO CAUSE PROBLEMS.                        
 IN THE EXTENDED...THE LONGWAVE PATTERN SEEMS UNLIKELY TO                       
 BUDGE...WITH WHAT LOOKS LIKE AN OMEGA BLOCK ON AN UNUSUALLY LARGE              
 SCALE...FROM THE PACIFIC ACROSS NORTH AMERICA. THE RIDGE IN THE                
 BLOCK MAY TEND TO MOVE EAST BUT ALSO BE BATTED BACK BY LOW LEVEL               
 COLD AIR INTRUSIONS OUT OF CENTRAL CANADA. SO WILL CONTINUE A COOL             
 FORECAST...BUT WITH A VERY SLOW WARMING TREND.                                 
 &&                                                                             
 .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                               
 OKLAHOMA CITY OK  25  32  20  26 /  90  80  40  40                             
 HOBART OK         26  31  21  28 /  90  60  40  40                             
 WICHITA FALLS TX  32  36  26  32 /  80  50  30  30                             
 GAGE OK           20  29  16  21 /  60  20  60  60                             
 PONCA CITY OK     20  29  16  22 /  60  50  40  40                             
 DURANT OK         32  38  28  35 /  80  80  20  30                             
 &&                                                                             
 .OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                            
 OK...SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 12 PM CST THURSDAY FOR OKZ004>044.                    
      WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 12 PM CST THURSDAY FOR OKZ045>048-          
      051-052.                                                                  
 TX...SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 12 PM CST THURSDAY FOR TXZ083.                        
      WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 12 PM CST THURSDAY FOR TXZ084>086.          
 &&                                                                             
 $$                                                                             
 11/25                                                                          
</pre> ok                                                                       

 AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                       
 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK                                             
 406 PM CST WED JAN 31 2007                                                     
 .DISCUSSION...SNOW THIS MORNING WAS MOST CONCENTRATED OVER                     
 NORTHERN OKLAHOMA...WITH 1 TO 2 INCHES. LIGHT SNOW AND SLEET                   
 ELSEWHERE WAS MORE INTERMITTENT...BUT THE FREEZING DRIZZLE WHICH               
 FOLLOWED HAS GREATLY IMPACTED TRAVEL. THIS OCCURRED AS WESTERLY                
 MID LEVEL WINDS AND SUBSIDENCE REMOVED MOISTURE FROM THE ICE                   
 CRYSTAL GROWTH ZONE...WHILE MOIST ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE CONTINUED AT              
 LOWER LEVELS. THERE IS A DISTINCT BACK EDGE TO THE UPGLIDE PUSHING             
 THROUGH CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA THIS AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT             
 WILL ALSO MOVE INTO WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTH TEXAS THIS                      
 EVENING...SO LOW LEVEL DOWNGLIDE WILL BE THE RULE                              
 OVERNIGHT...HOPEFULLY PREVENTING ANY MORE FREEZING DRIZZLE.                    
 MEANWHILE...WE STILL APPEAR ON TRACK TO RECEIVE A SWATH OF SNOW                
 LATE TONIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING. ALTHOUGH NOT ESPECIALLY                     
 HEAVY...ACCUMULATIONS WILL OCCUR EITHER SIDE OF THE THURSDAY                   
 MORNING COMMUTE...AGAIN IMPACTING TRAVEL. WE ARE ALSO CONCERNED                
 THAT FREEZING RAIN WILL IMPACT PARTS OF SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA AND                  
 WESTERN NORTH TEXAS LATER TONIGHT. ORIGINALLY...THIS WAS EXPECTED              
 TO BE RAIN...BUT TEMPERATURES ARE A COUPLE OF DEGREES COOLER THAN              
 EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON. DEWPOINTS ARE STILL WELL BELOW                        
 FREEZING...AND SURFACE WINDS WILL SWING AROUND TO EAST AND                     
 NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT. THEREFORE...WILL ISSUE A WINTER WEATHER                   
 ADVISORY FOR A ROW OF COUNTIES SOUTH OF THE SNOW ADVISORY. REALLY              
 DIFFICULT TO DRAW THE FREEZING LINE EVEN 12 HOURS AHEAD OF                     
 TIME...BUT OUR ADVISORY WILL BE BASED LARGELY ON THE 18Z RUC                   
 SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND SHORT RANGE ENSEMBLE 850 MB TEMPS.                    
 WHILE MOST AREAS WILL SEE ADDITIONAL PRECIP...THERE IS STILL BELOW             
 AVERAGE CONFIDENCE IN WHERE TO PLACE THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS. THE NAM              
 HAS LATCHED ONTO THE LOW LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS NEAR THE RED                      
 RIVER...WHILE THE GFS PAINTS MORE SNOW ALONG THE MID LEVEL FRONT               
 FROM WESTERN INTO CENTRAL OKLAHOMA. BOTH AREAS ARE LIKELY TO SEE               
 LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS...BUT THE MORE CONSISTENT SIGNAL...AND LESS                
 CHANCE FOR MELTING IS WITH THE ACTIVITY FORECAST TO SURROUND INTERSTATE        
 40 BOTH NORTH AND SOUTH. WILL CONTINUE WITH OUR FORECAST OF 1 TO 3             
 INCHES OF SNOW OVER A BROAD AREA...BUT MESOSCALE BANDING AND/OR                
 SOME WEAK CONVECTION MAY LEAD TO HIGHER TOTALS IN SMALL AREAS.                 
 WHATEVER DOES FALL WILL LIKELY REMAIN ON THE GROUND THROUGH THE                
 WEEKEND...AS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT REMAIN CLOUDY...AND AN               
 ARCTIC FRONT ARRIVES FRIDAY. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL ALSO LINGER               
 IN THE AREA LATE THURSDAY...AND LIGHT SNOW OR FREEZING RAIN SEEMS              
 A POSSIBILITY. WILL INCREASE TO CHANCE POPS ALONG THE STALLED LOW              
 LEVEL FRONT NEAR THE RED RIVER...AND ALONG THE APPROACHING ARCTIC              
 FRONT IN THE NORTHWEST. EXPECT THIS PRECIP WOULD BE LIGHT...BUT AS             
 WE HAVE SEEN...IT DOES NOT TAKE MUCH TO CAUSE PROBLEMS.                        
 IN THE EXTENDED...THE LONGWAVE PATTERN SEEMS UNLIKELY TO                       
 BUDGE...WITH WHAT LOOKS LIKE AN OMEGA BLOCK ON AN UNUSUALLY LARGE              
 SCALE...FROM THE PACIFIC ACROSS NORTH AMERICA. THE RIDGE IN THE                
 BLOCK MAY TEND TO MOVE EAST BUT ALSO BE BATTED BACK BY LOW LEVEL               
 COLD AIR INTRUSIONS OUT OF CENTRAL CANADA. SO WILL CONTINUE A COOL             
 FORECAST...BUT WITH A VERY SLOW WARMING TREND.                                 
 &&                                                                             
 .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                               
 OKLAHOMA CITY OK  27  32  20  26 /  90  70  20  30                             
 HOBART OK         27  31  21  28 /  90  40  30  30                             
 WICHITA FALLS TX  32  36  26  32 /  80  40  30  30                             
 GAGE OK           20  29  16  21 /  60  20  30  30                             
 PONCA CITY OK     21  29  16  22 /  60  50  20  20                             
 DURANT OK         32  38  28  35 /  80  70  30  20                             
 &&                                                                             
 .OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                            
 OK...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR                 
      OKZ014>019-021>032-040-042.                                               
      SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 12 PM CST THURSDAY FOR OKZ014>019-021>044.            
      SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 12 PM CST THURSDAY FOR OKZ004>013-020.                
      WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 12 PM CST THURSDAY FOR OKZ045>048-          
      051-052.                                                                  
 TX...SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 12 PM CST THURSDAY FOR TXZ083.                        
      WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 12 PM CST THURSDAY FOR TXZ084>086.          
 &&                                                                             
 $$                                                                             
 BURKE/SIX                                                                      
</pre> ok                                                                       

 AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                             
 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA                                      
 107 AM EST WED JAN 31 2007                                                     
 .AVIATION /06Z-06Z/...                                                         
 IR SAT IMAGERY SHOWING SOME CONSIDERABLE BINOVC SC DECK...WITH                 
 SOME SITES SCOURING OUT TO SKC-SCT. UPSLOPE/LAKE SNOW SHOWERS                  
 WILL KEEP IFR/MVFR CONDS ACROSS THE WESTERN TAFS /KBFD- KJST/                  
 WITH DOWNSLOPING WRLY COMPNT TO THE LLVL WND FIELD AIDING IN VFR               
 CONDS ELSEWHERE. HOWEVER...STILL CANNOT RULE OF A BRIEF REDUCTION              
 TO MVFR AT KUNV/KIPT/KAOO THRU THE EARLY MORNING HOURS WITH OCNL               
 -SHSN. WEST TO WNW SFC WNDS 10-15KTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS...ESP AT                
 KJST AND KMDT.                                                                 
 HI PRES CURRENTLY OVR THE MID MS VLY WILL MOVE EWD INTO THE SRN                
 MID ATLANTIC STATES...EFFECTIVELY LOWERING INVERSION HGTS AND                  
 SHUTTING DOWN THE LAKE SNOWS - ALLOWING KBFD/KJST TO IMPROVE BY                
 LATE MORNING OR EARLY AFT.                                                     
 &&                                                                             
 .PREV DISCUSSION...                                                            
 /ISSUED 1223 AM EST WED JAN 31 2007/                                           
 SHORT TERM /REST OF TONIGHT/...                                                
 JUST A QUICK UPDATE TO DROP THE ADVISORY FOR THE NRN MTS/POCONOS.              
 ONLY A FEW FLURRIES WILL BE LEFT THERE...AS LOW IS WELL TO THE                 
 EAST AND INVERSION LOWERING SFC PRESSURES RISING. WILL TWEAK JUST              
 THE FIRST PD WORDING FOR NOW. ALSO RE-ISSUED THE WSW FOR                       
 NOW...WITH LIGHT SNOW CONTINUING AS THE UPSLOPE AND CROSS-LAKE                 
 FETCH CONTINUES. SO WILL JUST CONTINUE THEM FOR NOW.                           
 PREV DISCUSSION...                                                             
 /ISSUED 1012 PM EST TUE JAN 30 2007/                                           
 SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...                                          
 WILL SEND OUT A QUICK...LATE EVENING ZONE UPDATE TO FRESHEN UP                 
 THE WORDING FOR SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION. ARCTIC FRONT HAS               
 PUSHED EAST OF THE SUSI VALLEY...TAKING THE HEAVY SQUALLS WITH IT.             
 WEAKENING MID LEVEL DEFORMATION SNOWS ACROSS THE NCENT MTNS WILL               
 BRING ANOTHER INCH OR TWO TO SOME LOCATIONS OVER THE NEXT FEW                  
 HOURS WITHIN THE SNOW ADVISORY...WHICH SET TO EXPIRE AT MIDNIGHT EST.          
 PERSISTENT LAKE EFFECT/OROGRAPHIC SNOWS ACROSS THE NW MTNS AND                 
 LAUREL HIGHLANDS RESPECTIVELY WILL CONTINUE TO ACCUMULATE A FEW                
 MORE INCHES OVERNIGHT...SO NO CHANGES TO THE LAKE EFFECT/SNOW                  
 ADVISORIES FOR THOSE AREAS.                                                    
 ELSEWHERE...EXPECT FLURRIES AND A BRIEF HEAVIER SNOW SHOWER                    
 OVERNIGHT AS THE PRIMARY 700-500 HPA THERMAL TROUGH MOVES SE FROM              
 THE GLAKES. ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE LESS THAN AN INCH ACROSS THE                 
 CENTRAL RIDGE AND VALLEY REGION. OVC LAYER WILL BREAK UP AFTER                 
 MIDNIGHT ACROSS THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY AS DRIER DEWPOINTS IN THE                
 UPPER SINGLE DIGITS ADVECT EAST VIA A DOWNSLOPE LLVL FLOW.                     
 TRIMMED HOURLY AND MIN TEMPS OVERNIGHT BY 2-4 DEG F IN MANY                    
 LOCATIONS.                                                                     
 PREV DISCUSSION...                                                             
 /ISSUED 728 PM EST TUE JAN 30 2007/                                            
 SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...                                                
 AREA OF INSTABILITY WITH TOTAL TOTALS NEAR 50 CROSSING THE SUSQ                
 VALLEY...ALONG WITH A RATHER STRONG...ALBEIT COMPACT UPPER SHORT               
 WAVE MOVE EAST OVER THE NCENT MTNS WILL BRING NUMEROUS SNOW                    
 SHOWERS AND LOCALLY HEAVY SNOW SQUALLS EARLY TONIGHT.                          
 ISSUED A SNOW ADVISORY ACROSS THE NCENT MTNS THROUGH MIDNIGHT                  
 WHERE A MESO-B MID LVL DEFORMATION ZONE AND CORRESPONDING                      
 EAST/WEST BELT OF ENHANCED 850-700 HPA OMEGA WILL LEAD TO SEVERAL              
 INCHES OF NEW SNOW.                                                            
 SNOW SHOWERS AND SQUALLS WILL DIMINISH TO SCATTERED FLURRIES                   
 ACROSS THE CENTRAL VALLEYS AND SUSQ RIVER VALLEY LATE THIS EVENING.            
 PREV DISCUSSION...                                                             
 /ISSUED 325 PM EST TUE JAN 30 2007/                                            
 SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...                                      
 MESO ANAL SHOWS SFC LOW JUST WEST OF BFD AT 18Z...WITH THE COLD                
 FRONT MOVING THRU SWRN PA. RUC SHOWS A POCKET OF RELATIVELY UNSTABLE           
 AIR...LOW-MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES IN EXCESS OF 6C/KM AND T-TOTALS                
 TOPPING 50...HELPING TRIGGER THE CURRENT SNOW SHOWERS AND SQUALLS              
 MOVING ACROSS THE AREA. THE BEST FORCING/INSTABILITY STARTS TO WANE            
 AFTER ABOUT 21Z ACCORDING TO SHORT TERM GUIDANCE...WITH THE FRONT              
 EXPECTED TO CLEAR MY EASTERN ZONES BY 00Z.                                     
 AFTER THE FROPA...WE WILL TRANSITION INTO A MORE TYPICAL NW FLOW               
 REGIME WITH LAKE EFFECT AND OROGRAPHICALLY FORCED SNOWS IN THE                 
 WEST...AND ACTIVITY TAPERING OFF TO JUST SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS AND            
 FLURRIES THE FURTHER DOWNWIND OF THE LAKES AND LAURELS ONE GETS.               
 ONLY CONCERN IS A HINT IN THE MODELS THAT THE UPPER-AIR PORTION OF             
 THE OCCLUDED FRONT HANGS TOUGH FOR A TIME INTO NW PA...ENHANCING THE           
 CONVERGENCE THERE INTO THE EVENING. THIS SHOWS UP AS A WELL DEFINED            
 THERMAL RIDGE UP THRU ABOUT 850MB IN ALL THE SHORT RANGE GUIDANCE.             
 THEY SHIFT THIS EAST OF THE AREA AFTER 03Z.                                    
 WEDNESDAY WILL SEE CONDITIONS IMPROVING AS INVERSION HEIGHTS LOWER             
 THROUGHOUT THE DAY. THE BEST CHANCE OF LINGERING SNOW WILL BE OVER             
 WESTERN HIGH TERRAIN. ELSEWHERE WE SHUD SEE LITTLE MORE THAN                   
 FLURRIES.                                                                      
 LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...                                 
 UPPER TROFFING OVER EASTERN NORTH AMERICA LOOKS TO DOMINATE THE LONG           
 TERM PERIOD. THIS WILL LEAD TO NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES               
 EARLY IN THE PERIOD AND POSSIBLY SIGNIFICANTLY BELOW NORMAL                    
 TEMPERATURES LATE IN THE PERIOD.                                               
 MOST OF THE PERIOD LOOKS DRY...BUT TWO OPPORTUNITIES FOR PCPN STAND            
 OUT. A WEATHER SYSTEM THAT HAS BEEN ADVERTISED FOR SEVERAL DAYS TO             
 AFFECT THE REGION LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY CONTINUES TO LOOK                  
 COMPLEX...WITH VARYING RUN TO RUN MODEL SOLUTIONS. A SOUTHERN STREAM           
 TROF IS FORECAST TO INDUCE CYCLOGENESIS OVER THE SOUTHEAST U.S.                
 THURSDAY NIGHT WITH A NORTHERN STREAM TROF FORECAST TO SWING THROUGH THE       
 REGION LATER FRIDAY. MUCH YET DEPENDS ON THE TRACK OF THE COASTAL              
 LOW AND ANY PHASING THAT MAY TAKE PLACE BETWEEN THE TWO STREAMS. AT            
 THIS TIME...THERE IS A HIGH PROBABILITY OF MEASURABLE ACROSS ALL OF            
 THE CWA...WITH POTENTIAL FOR A SEVERAL INCH SNOWFALL ACROSS THE                
 REGION...EVEN THE LOWER SUSQUEHANNA VALLEY...WHERE SNOWFALL SO FAR             
 THIS SEASON IS LESS THAN AN INCH TOTAL.                                        
 A PRONOUNCED ARCTIC TROF IS FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST              
 AREA ON MONDAY...POTENTIALLY BRINGING IN THE COLDEST AIR YET THIS              
 WINTER.                                                                        
 AVIATION /20Z-18Z/...                                                          
 THE AFTERNOON`S WIDESPREAD IFR CAUSED BY THE SHORTWAVE AND SNOW                
 SHOWERS SHUD BEGIN TO IMPROVE IN MOST AREAS THIS EVENING AS THE                
 UPPER TROF MOVES EAST OF THE REGION AND A WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW                  
 DEVELOPS. LIKE A BROKEN RECORD THOUGH...JST/BFD WILL NOT SHARE IN              
 THE IMPROVEMENT AS UPSLOPE AND PROXIMITY TO LAKE ERIE CONSPIRE TO              
 KEEP BOTH TERMINALS MAINLY DOWN BELOW 3000/3 WITH FREQUENT SNOW                
 SHOWERS BRINGING EVEN LOWER CONDITIONS. WILL PROB SEE AOO/UNV/IPT              
 IMPROVE TO MVFR CEILINGS AND MOSTLY UNLIMITED VIS WITH ONLY OCNL               
 SNOW SHOWERS BRINGING BRIEFLY REDUCED VIS AFTER 00Z...WITH VFR                 
 DEVELOPING SLOWLY LATER TONIGHT INTO EARLY WED MORNING. STILL A                
 QUESTION AS TO WHETHER THE FAR SERN TERMINALS WILL SEE MUCH                    
 INCLEMENT WX AT ALL AS THE SYSTEM IS ALREADY MOISTURE STARVED AND              
 DOWN-SLOPING FLOW WILL ONLY HELP IN MAKING MUCH OF THE SNOW SHOWER             
 ACTIVITY DRY UP BEFORE IT MAKES IT INTO THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY. THINK           
 THERE IS A CHC OF SNOW SHOWERS AND BRIEFLY LOWER CONDITIONS THRU THE           
 EVENING...BUT AFTER THAT CIG/VIS SHUD NOT POSE MUCH OF A CHALLENGE             
 THERE.                                                                         
 &&                                                                             
 .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                            
 LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR                     
 PAZ004-005-010.                                                                
 SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR PAZ024-033.                     
 &&                                                                             
 $$                                                                             
 AVIATION...STEINBUGL                                                           
</pre> pa                                                                       

 AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                       
 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA                                      
 1223 AM EST WED JAN 31 2007                                                    
 .SHORT TERM /REST OF TONIGHT/...                                               
 JUST A QUICK UPDATE TO DROP THE ADVISORY FOR THE NRN MTS/POCONOS.              
 ONLY A FEW FLURRIES WILL BE LEFT THERE...AS LOW IS WELL TO THE                 
 EAST AND INVERSION LOWERING SFC PRESSURES RISING. WILL TWEAK JUST              
 THE FIRST PD WORDING FOR NOW. ALSO RE-ISSUED THE WSW FOR                       
 NOW...WITH LIGHT SNOW CONTINUING AS THE UPSLOPE AND CROSS-LAKE                 
 FETCH CONTINUES. SO WILL JUST CONTINUE THEM FOR NOW.                           
 &&                                                                             
 .PREV DISCUSSION...                                                            
 /ISSUED 1012 PM EST TUE JAN 30 2007/                                           
 SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...                                          
 WILL SEND OUT A QUICK...LATE EVENING ZONE UPDATE TO FRESHEN UP                 
 THE WORDING FOR SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION. ARCTIC FRONT HAS               
 PUSHED EAST OF THE SUSI VALLEY...TAKING THE HEAVY SQUALLS WITH IT.             
 WEAKENING MID LEVEL DEFORMATION SNOWS ACROSS THE NCENT MTNS WILL               
 BRING ANOTHER INCH OR TWO TO SOME LOCATIONS OVER THE NEXT FEW                  
 HOURS WITHIN THE SNOW ADVISORY...WHICH SET TO EXPIRE AT MIDNIGHT EST.          
 PERSISTENT LAKE EFFECT/OROGRAPHIC SNOWS ACROSS THE NW MTNS AND                 
 LAUREL HIGHLANDS RESPECTIVELY WILL CONTINUE TO ACCUMULATE A FEW                
 MORE INCHES OVERNIGHT...SO NO CHANGES TO THE LAKE EFFECT/SNOW                  
 ADVISORIES FOR THOSE AREAS.                                                    
 ELSEWHERE...EXPECT FLURRIES AND A BRIEF HEAVIER SNOW SHOWER                    
 OVERNIGHT AS THE PRIMARY 700-500 HPA THERMAL TROUGH MOVES SE FROM              
 THE GLAKES. ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE LESS THAN AN INCH ACROSS THE                 
 CENTRAL RIDGE AND VALLEY REGION. OVC LAYER WILL BREAK UP AFTER                 
 MIDNIGHT ACROSS THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY AS DRIER DEWPOINTS IN THE                
 UPPER SINGLE DIGITS ADVECT EAST VIA A DOWNSLOPE LLVL FLOW.                     
 TRIMMED HOURLY AND MIN TEMPS OVERNIGHT BY 2-4 DEG F IN MANY                    
 LOCATIONS.                                                                     
 PREV DISCUSSION...                                                             
 /ISSUED 728 PM EST TUE JAN 30 2007/                                            
 SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...                                                
 AREA OF INSTABILITY WITH TOTAL TOTALS NEAR 50 CROSSING THE SUSQ                
 VALLEY...ALONG WITH A RATHER STRONG...ALBEIT COMPACT UPPER SHORT               
 WAVE MOVE EAST OVER THE NCENT MTNS WILL BRING NUMEROUS SNOW                    
 SHOWERS AND LOCALLY HEAVY SNOW SQUALLS EARLY TONIGHT.                          
 ISSUED A SNOW ADVISORY ACROSS THE NCENT MTNS THROUGH MIDNIGHT                  
 WHERE A MESO-B MID LVL DEFORMATION ZONE AND CORRESPONDING                      
 EAST/WEST BELT OF ENHANCED 850-700 HPA OMEGA WILL LEAD TO SEVERAL              
 INCHES OF NEW SNOW.                                                            
 SNOW SHOWERS AND SQUALLS WILL DIMINISH TO SCATTERED FLURRIES                   
 ACROSS THE CENTRAL VALLEYS AND SUSQ RIVER VALLEY LATE THIS EVENING.            
 PREV DISCUSSION...                                                             
 /ISSUED 325 PM EST TUE JAN 30 2007/                                            
 SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...                                      
 MESO ANAL SHOWS SFC LOW JUST WEST OF BFD AT 18Z...WITH THE COLD                
 FRONT MOVING THRU SWRN PA. RUC SHOWS A POCKET OF RELATIVELY UNSTABLE           
 AIR...LOW-MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES IN EXCESS OF 6C/KM AND T-TOTALS                
 TOPPING 50...HELPING TRIGGER THE CURRENT SNOW SHOWERS AND SQUALLS              
 MOVING ACROSS THE AREA. THE BEST FORCING/INSTABILITY STARTS TO WANE            
 AFTER ABOUT 21Z ACCORDING TO SHORT TERM GUIDANCE...WITH THE FRONT              
 EXPECTED TO CLEAR MY EASTERN ZONES BY 00Z.                                     
 AFTER THE FROPA...WE WILL TRANSITION INTO A MORE TYPICAL NW FLOW               
 REGIME WITH LAKE EFFECT AND OROGRAPHICALLY FORCED SNOWS IN THE                 
 WEST...AND ACTIVITY TAPERING OFF TO JUST SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS AND            
 FLURRIES THE FURTHER DOWNWIND OF THE LAKES AND LAURELS ONE GETS.               
 ONLY CONCERN IS A HINT IN THE MODELS THAT THE UPPER-AIR PORTION OF             
 THE OCCLUDED FRONT HANGS TOUGH FOR A TIME INTO NW PA...ENHANCING THE           
 CONVERGENCE THERE INTO THE EVENING. THIS SHOWS UP AS A WELL DEFINED            
 THERMAL RIDGE UP THRU ABOUT 850MB IN ALL THE SHORT RANGE GUIDANCE.             
 THEY SHIFT THIS EAST OF THE AREA AFTER 03Z.                                    
 WEDNESDAY WILL SEE CONDITIONS IMPROVING AS INVERSION HEIGHTS LOWER             
 THROUGHOUT THE DAY. THE BEST CHANCE OF LINGERING SNOW WILL BE OVER             
 WESTERN HIGH TERRAIN. ELSEWHERE WE SHUD SEE LITTLE MORE THAN                   
 FLURRIES.                                                                      
 LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...                                 
 UPPER TROFFING OVER EASTERN NORTH AMERICA LOOKS TO DOMINATE THE LONG           
 TERM PERIOD. THIS WILL LEAD TO NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES               
 EARLY IN THE PERIOD AND POSSIBLY SIGNIFICANTLY BELOW NORMAL                    
 TEMPERATURES LATE IN THE PERIOD.                                               
 MOST OF THE PERIOD LOOKS DRY...BUT TWO OPPORTUNITIES FOR PCPN STAND            
 OUT. A WEATHER SYSTEM THAT HAS BEEN ADVERTISED FOR SEVERAL DAYS TO             
 AFFECT THE REGION LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY CONTINUES TO LOOK                  
 COMPLEX...WITH VARYING RUN TO RUN MODEL SOLUTIONS. A SOUTHERN STREAM           
 TROF IS FORECAST TO INDUCE CYCLOGENESIS OVER THE SOUTHEAST U.S.                
 THURSDAY NIGHT WITH A NORTHERN STREAM TROF FORECAST TO SWING THROUGH THE       
 REGION LATER FRIDAY. MUCH YET DEPENDS ON THE TRACK OF THE COASTAL              
 LOW AND ANY PHASING THAT MAY TAKE PLACE BETWEEN THE TWO STREAMS. AT            
 THIS TIME...THERE IS A HIGH PROBABILITY OF MEASURABLE ACROSS ALL OF            
 THE CWA...WITH POTENTIAL FOR A SEVERAL INCH SNOWFALL ACROSS THE                
 REGION...EVEN THE LOWER SUSQUEHANNA VALLEY...WHERE SNOWFALL SO FAR             
 THIS SEASON IS LESS THAN AN INCH TOTAL.                                        
 A PRONOUNCED ARCTIC TROF IS FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST              
 AREA ON MONDAY...POTENTIALLY BRINGING IN THE COLDEST AIR YET THIS              
 WINTER.                                                                        
 AVIATION /20Z-18Z/...                                                          
 THE AFTERNOON`S WIDESPREAD IFR CAUSED BY THE SHORTWAVE AND SNOW                
 SHOWERS SHUD BEGIN TO IMPROVE IN MOST AREAS THIS EVENING AS THE                
 UPPER TROF MOVES EAST OF THE REGION AND A WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW                  
 DEVELOPS. LIKE A BROKEN RECORD THOUGH...JST/BFD WILL NOT SHARE IN              
 THE IMPROVEMENT AS UPSLOPE AND PROXIMITY TO LAKE ERIE CONSPIRE TO              
 KEEP BOTH TERMINALS MAINLY DOWN BELOW 3000/3 WITH FREQUENT SNOW                
 SHOWERS BRINGING EVEN LOWER CONDITIONS. WILL PROB SEE AOO/UNV/IPT              
 IMPROVE TO MVFR CEILINGS AND MOSTLY UNLIMITED VIS WITH ONLY OCNL               
 SNOW SHOWERS BRINGING BRIEFLY REDUCED VIS AFTER 00Z...WITH VFR                 
 DEVELOPING SLOWLY LATER TONIGHT INTO EARLY WED MORNING. STILL A                
 QUESTION AS TO WHETHER THE FAR SERN TERMINALS WILL SEE MUCH                    
 INCLEMENT WX AT ALL AS THE SYSTEM IS ALREADY MOISTURE STARVED AND              
 DOWN-SLOPING FLOW WILL ONLY HELP IN MAKING MUCH OF THE SNOW SHOWER             
 ACTIVITY DRY UP BEFORE IT MAKES IT INTO THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY. THINK           
 THERE IS A CHC OF SNOW SHOWERS AND BRIEFLY LOWER CONDITIONS THRU THE           
 EVENING...BUT AFTER THAT CIG/VIS SHUD NOT POSE MUCH OF A CHALLENGE             
 THERE.                                                                         
 &&                                                                             
 .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                            
 LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR                     
 PAZ004-005-010.                                                                
 SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR PAZ024-033.                     
 &&                                                                             
 $$                                                                             
 SHORT TERM...DANGELO                                                           
</pre> pa                                                                       

 AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                       
 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA                                      
 1012 PM EST TUE JAN 30 2007                                                    
 .SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...                                         
 WILL SEND OUT A QUICK...LATE EVENING ZONE UPDATE TO FRESHEN UP                 
 THE WORDING FOR SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION. ARCTIC FRONT HAS               
 PUSHED EAST OF THE SUSI VALLEY...TAKING THE HEAVY SQUALLS WITH IT.             
 WEAKENING MID LEVEL DEFORMATION SNOWS ACROSS THE NCENT MTNS WILL               
 BRING ANOTHER INCH OR TWO TO SOME LOCATIONS OVER THE NEXT FEW                  
 HOURS WITHIN THE SNOW ADVISORY...WHICH SET TO EXPIRE AT MIDNIGHT EST.          
 PERSISTENT LAKE EFFECT/OROGRAPHIC SNOWS ACROSS THE NW MTNS AND                 
 LAUREL HIGHLANDS RESPECTIVELY WILL CONTINUE TO ACCUMULATE A FEW                
 MORE INCHES OVERNIGHT...SO NO CHANGES TO THE LAKE EFFECT/SNOW                  
 ADVISORIES FOR THOSE AREAS.                                                    
 ELSEWHERE...EXPECT FLURRIES AND A BRIEF HEAVIER SNOW SHOWER                    
 OVERNIGHT AS THE PRIMARY 700-500 HPA THERMAL TROUGH MOVES SE FROM              
 THE GLAKES. ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE LESS THAN AN INCH ACROSS THE                 
 CENTRAL RIDGE AND VALLEY REGION. OVC LAYER WILL BREAK UP AFTER                 
 MIDNIGHT ACROSS THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY AS DRIER DEWPOINTS IN THE                
 UPPER SINGLE DIGITS ADVECT EAST VIA A DOWNSLOPE LLVL FLOW.                     
 TRIMMED HOURLY AND MIN TEMPS OVERNIGHT BY 2-4 DEG F IN MANY                    
 LOCATIONS.                                                                     
 &&                                                                             
 .PREV DISCUSSION...                                                            
 /ISSUED 728 PM EST TUE JAN 30 2007/                                            
 SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...                                                
 AREA OF INSTABILITY WITH TOTAL TOTALS NEAR 50 CROSSING THE SUSQ                
 VALLEY...ALONG WITH A RATHER STRONG...ALBEIT COMPACT UPPER SHORT               
 WAVE MOVE EAST OVER THE NCENT MTNS WILL BRING NUMEROUS SNOW                    
 SHOWERS AND LOCALLY HEAVY SNOW SQUALLS EARLY TONIGHT.                          
 ISSUED A SNOW ADVISORY ACROSS THE NCENT MTNS THROUGH MIDNIGHT                  
 WHERE A MESO-B MID LVL DEFORMATION ZONE AND CORRESPONDING                      
 EAST/WEST BELT OF ENHANCED 850-700 HPA OMEGA WILL LEAD TO SEVERAL              
 INCHES OF NEW SNOW.                                                            
 SNOW SHOWERS AND SQUALLS WILL DIMINISH TO SCATTERED FLURRIES                   
 ACROSS THE CENTRAL VALLEYS AND SUSQ RIVER VALLEY LATE THIS EVENING.            
 PREV DISCUSSION...                                                             
 /ISSUED 325 PM EST TUE JAN 30 2007/                                            
 SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...                                      
 MESO ANAL SHOWS SFC LOW JUST WEST OF BFD AT 18Z...WITH THE COLD                
 FRONT MOVING THRU SWRN PA. RUC SHOWS A POCKET OF RELATIVELY UNSTABLE           
 AIR...LOW-MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES IN EXCESS OF 6C/KM AND T-TOTALS                
 TOPPING 50...HELPING TRIGGER THE CURRENT SNOW SHOWERS AND SQUALLS              
 MOVING ACROSS THE AREA. THE BEST FORCING/INSTABILITY STARTS TO WANE            
 AFTER ABOUT 21Z ACCORDING TO SHORT TERM GUIDANCE...WITH THE FRONT              
 EXPECTED TO CLEAR MY EASTERN ZONES BY 00Z.                                     
 AFTER THE FROPA...WE WILL TRANSITION INTO A MORE TYPICAL NW FLOW               
 REGIME WITH LAKE EFFECT AND OROGRAPHICALLY FORCED SNOWS IN THE                 
 WEST...AND ACTIVITY TAPERING OFF TO JUST SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS AND            
 FLURRIES THE FURTHER DOWNWIND OF THE LAKES AND LAURELS ONE GETS.               
 ONLY CONCERN IS A HINT IN THE MODELS THAT THE UPPER-AIR PORTION OF             
 THE OCCLUDED FRONT HANGS TOUGH FOR A TIME INTO NW PA...ENHANCING THE           
 CONVERGENCE THERE INTO THE EVENING. THIS SHOWS UP AS A WELL DEFINED            
 THERMAL RIDGE UP THRU ABOUT 850MB IN ALL THE SHORT RANGE GUIDANCE.             
 THEY SHIFT THIS EAST OF THE AREA AFTER 03Z.                                    
 WEDNESDAY WILL SEE CONDITIONS IMPROVING AS INVERSION HEIGHTS LOWER             
 THROUGHOUT THE DAY. THE BEST CHANCE OF LINGERING SNOW WILL BE OVER             
 WESTERN HIGH TERRAIN. ELSEWHERE WE SHUD SEE LITTLE MORE THAN                   
 FLURRIES.                                                                      
 LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...                                 
 UPPER TROFFING OVER EASTERN NORTH AMERICA LOOKS TO DOMINATE THE LONG           
 TERM PERIOD. THIS WILL LEAD TO NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES               
 EARLY IN THE PERIOD AND POSSIBLY SIGNIFICANTLY BELOW NORMAL                    
 TEMPERATURES LATE IN THE PERIOD.                                               
 MOST OF THE PERIOD LOOKS DRY...BUT TWO OPPORTUNITIES FOR PCPN STAND            
 OUT. A WEATHER SYSTEM THAT HAS BEEN ADVERTISED FOR SEVERAL DAYS TO             
 AFFECT THE REGION LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY CONTINUES TO LOOK                  
 COMPLEX...WITH VARYING RUN TO RUN MODEL SOLUTIONS. A SOUTHERN STREAM           
 TROF IS FORECAST TO INDUCE CYCLOGENESIS OVER THE SOUTHEAST U.S.                
 THURSDAY NIGHT WITH A NORTHERN STREAM TROF FORECAST TO SWING THROUGH THE       
 REGION LATER FRIDAY. MUCH YET DEPENDS ON THE TRACK OF THE COASTAL              
 LOW AND ANY PHASING THAT MAY TAKE PLACE BETWEEN THE TWO STREAMS. AT            
 THIS TIME...THERE IS A HIGH PROBABILITY OF MEASURABLE ACROSS ALL OF            
 THE CWA...WITH POTENTIAL FOR A SEVERAL INCH SNOWFALL ACROSS THE                
 REGION...EVEN THE LOWER SUSQUEHANNA VALLEY...WHERE SNOWFALL SO FAR             
 THIS SEASON IS LESS THAN AN INCH TOTAL.                                        
 A PRONOUNCED ARCTIC TROF IS FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST              
 AREA ON MONDAY...POTENTIALLY BRINGING IN THE COLDEST AIR YET THIS              
 WINTER.                                                                        
 AVIATION /20Z-18Z/...                                                          
 THE AFTERNOON`S WIDESPREAD IFR CAUSED BY THE SHORTWAVE AND SNOW                
 SHOWERS SHUD BEGIN TO IMPROVE IN MOST AREAS THIS EVENING AS THE                
 UPPER TROF MOVES EAST OF THE REGION AND A WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW                  
 DEVELOPS. LIKE A BROKEN RECORD THOUGH...JST/BFD WILL NOT SHARE IN              
 THE IMPROVEMENT AS UPSLOPE AND PROXIMITY TO LAKE ERIE CONSPIRE TO              
 KEEP BOTH TERMINALS MAINLY DOWN BELOW 3000/3 WITH FREQUENT SNOW                
 SHOWERS BRINGING EVEN LOWER CONDITIONS. WILL PROB SEE AOO/UNV/IPT              
 IMPROVE TO MVFR CEILINGS AND MOSTLY UNLIMITED VIS WITH ONLY OCNL               
 SNOW SHOWERS BRINGING BRIEFLY REDUCED VIS AFTER 00Z...WITH VFR                 
 DEVELOPING SLOWLY LATER TONIGHT INTO EARLY WED MORNING. STILL A                
 QUESTION AS TO WHETHER THE FAR SERN TERMINALS WILL SEE MUCH                    
 INCLEMENT WX AT ALL AS THE SYSTEM IS ALREADY MOISTURE STARVED AND              
 DOWN-SLOPING FLOW WILL ONLY HELP IN MAKING MUCH OF THE SNOW SHOWER             
 ACTIVITY DRY UP BEFORE IT MAKES IT INTO THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY. THINK           
 THERE IS A CHC OF SNOW SHOWERS AND BRIEFLY LOWER CONDITIONS THRU THE           
 EVENING...BUT AFTER THAT CIG/VIS SHUD NOT POSE MUCH OF A CHALLENGE             
 THERE.                                                                         
 &&                                                                             
 .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                            
 LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR PAZ004-                
 005-010.                                                                       
 SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR PAZ024-033.                        
 SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR PAZ041-042-046-                   
 053.                                                                           
 &&                                                                             
 $$                                                                             
 SHORT TERM...LAMBERT                                                           
</pre> pa                                                                       

 AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                       
 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA                                      
 728 PM EST TUE JAN 30 2007                                                     
 .SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...                                               
 AREA OF INSTABILITY WITH TOTAL TOTALS NEAR 50 CROSSING THE SUSQ                
 VALLEY...ALONG WITH A RATHER STRONG...ALBEIT COMPACT UPPER SHORT               
 WAVE MOVE EAST OVER THE NCENT MTNS WILL BRING NUMEROUS SNOW                    
 SHOWERS AND LOCALLY HEAVY SNOW SQUALLS EARLY TONIGHT.                          
 ISSUED A SNOW ADVISORY ACROSS THE NCENT MTNS THROUGH MIDNIGHT                  
 WHERE A MESO-B MID LVL DEFORMATION ZONE AND CORRESPONDING                      
 EAST/WEST BELT OF ENHANCED 850-700 HPA OMEGA WILL LEAD TO SEVERAL              
 INCHES OF NEW SNOW.                                                            
 SNOW SHOWERS AND SQUALLS WILL DIMINISH TO SCATTERED FLURRIES                   
 ACROSS THE CENTRAL VALLEYS AND SUSQ RIVER VALLEY LATE THIS EVENING.            
 &&                                                                             
 .PREV DISCUSSION...                                                            
 /ISSUED 325 PM EST TUE JAN 30 2007/                                            
 SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...                                      
 MESO ANAL SHOWS SFC LOW JUST WEST OF BFD AT 18Z...WITH THE COLD                
 FRONT MOVING THRU SWRN PA. RUC SHOWS A POCKET OF RELATIVELY UNSTABLE           
 AIR...LOW-MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES IN EXCESS OF 6C/KM AND T-TOTALS                
 TOPPING 50...HELPING TRIGGER THE CURRENT SNOW SHOWERS AND SQUALLS              
 MOVING ACROSS THE AREA. THE BEST FORCING/INSTABILITY STARTS TO WANE            
 AFTER ABOUT 21Z ACCORDING TO SHORT TERM GUIDANCE...WITH THE FRONT              
 EXPECTED TO CLEAR MY EASTERN ZONES BY 00Z.                                     
 AFTER THE FROPA...WE WILL TRANSITION INTO A MORE TYPICAL NW FLOW               
 REGIME WITH LAKE EFFECT AND OROGRAPHICALLY FORCED SNOWS IN THE                 
 WEST...AND ACTIVITY TAPERING OFF TO JUST SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS AND            
 FLURRIES THE FURTHER DOWNWIND OF THE LAKES AND LAURELS ONE GETS.               
 ONLY CONCERN IS A HINT IN THE MODELS THAT THE UPPER-AIR PORTION OF             
 THE OCCLUDED FRONT HANGS TOUGH FOR A TIME INTO NW PA...ENHANCING THE           
 CONVERGENCE THERE INTO THE EVENING. THIS SHOWS UP AS A WELL DEFINED            
 THERMAL RIDGE UP THRU ABOUT 850MB IN ALL THE SHORT RANGE GUIDANCE.             
 THEY SHIFT THIS EAST OF THE AREA AFTER 03Z.                                    
 WEDNESDAY WILL SEE CONDITIONS IMPROVING AS INVERSION HEIGHTS LOWER             
 THROUGHOUT THE DAY. THE BEST CHANCE OF LINGERING SNOW WILL BE OVER             
 WESTERN HIGH TERRAIN. ELSEWHERE WE SHUD SEE LITTLE MORE THAN                   
 FLURRIES.                                                                      
 LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...                                 
 UPPER TROFFING OVER EASTERN NORTH AMERICA LOOKS TO DOMINATE THE LONG           
 TERM PERIOD. THIS WILL LEAD TO NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES               
 EARLY IN THE PERIOD AND POSSIBLY SIGNIFICANTLY BELOW NORMAL                    
 TEMPERATURES LATE IN THE PERIOD.                                               
 MOST OF THE PERIOD LOOKS DRY...BUT TWO OPPORTUNITIES FOR PCPN STAND            
 OUT. A WEATHER SYSTEM THAT HAS BEEN ADVERTISED FOR SEVERAL DAYS TO             
 AFFECT THE REGION LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY CONTINUES TO LOOK                  
 COMPLEX...WITH VARYING RUN TO RUN MODEL SOLUTIONS. A SOUTHERN STREAM           
 TROF IS FORECAST TO INDUCE CYCLOGENESIS OVER THE SOUTHEAST U.S.                
 THURSDAY NIGHT WITH A NORTHERN STREAM TROF FORECAST TO SWING THROUGH THE       
 REGION LATER FRIDAY. MUCH YET DEPENDS ON THE TRACK OF THE COASTAL              
 LOW AND ANY PHASING THAT MAY TAKE PLACE BETWEEN THE TWO STREAMS. AT            
 THIS TIME...THERE IS A HIGH PROBABILITY OF MEASURABLE ACROSS ALL OF            
 THE CWA...WITH POTENTIAL FOR A SEVERAL INCH SNOWFALL ACROSS THE                
 REGION...EVEN THE LOWER SUSQUEHANNA VALLEY...WHERE SNOWFALL SO FAR             
 THIS SEASON IS LESS THAN AN INCH TOTAL.                                        
 A PRONOUNCED ARCTIC TROF IS FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST              
 AREA ON MONDAY...POTENTIALLY BRINGING IN THE COLDEST AIR YET THIS              
 WINTER.                                                                        
 AVIATION /20Z-18Z/...                                                          
 THE AFTERNOON`S WIDESPREAD IFR CAUSED BY THE SHORTWAVE AND SNOW                
 SHOWERS SHUD BEGIN TO IMPROVE IN MOST AREAS THIS EVENING AS THE                
 UPPER TROF MOVES EAST OF THE REGION AND A WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW                  
 DEVELOPS. LIKE A BROKEN RECORD THOUGH...JST/BFD WILL NOT SHARE IN              
 THE IMPROVEMENT AS UPSLOPE AND PROXIMITY TO LAKE ERIE CONSPIRE TO              
 KEEP BOTH TERMINALS MAINLY DOWN BELOW 3000/3 WITH FREQUENT SNOW                
 SHOWERS BRINGING EVEN LOWER CONDITIONS. WILL PROB SEE AOO/UNV/IPT              
 IMPROVE TO MVFR CEILINGS AND MOSTLY UNLIMITED VIS WITH ONLY OCNL               
 SNOW SHOWERS BRINGING BRIEFLY REDUCED VIS AFTER 00Z...WITH VFR                 
 DEVELOPING SLOWLY LATER TONIGHT INTO EARLY WED MORNING. STILL A                
 QUESTION AS TO WHETHER THE FAR SERN TERMINALS WILL SEE MUCH                    
 INCLEMENT WX AT ALL AS THE SYSTEM IS ALREADY MOISTURE STARVED AND              
 DOWN-SLOPING FLOW WILL ONLY HELP IN MAKING MUCH OF THE SNOW SHOWER             
 ACTIVITY DRY UP BEFORE IT MAKES IT INTO THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY. THINK           
 THERE IS A CHC OF SNOW SHOWERS AND BRIEFLY LOWER CONDITIONS THRU THE           
 EVENING...BUT AFTER THAT CIG/VIS SHUD NOT POSE MUCH OF A CHALLENGE             
 THERE.                                                                         
 &&                                                                             
 .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                            
 LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR PAZ004-                
 005-010.                                                                       
 SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR PAZ024-033.                        
 SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR PAZ011-012-041-                   
 042-046-053.                                                                   
 &&                                                                             
 $$                                                                             
 SHORT TERM...LAMBERT                                                           
</pre> pa                                                                       

 AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                       
 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN                                          
 813 PM CST WED JAN 31 2007                                                     
 .DISCUSSION...                                                                 
 ALREADY HAVE HAD A QUICK SHOT OF SNOW ACROSS SOUTHERN HALF OF                  
 MIDDLE TN THIS EVE...WITH AREAS OVER ERN AR AND WRN TN GETTING UP              
 TO 2 INCHES AS IT MOVED ACROSS THAT AREA. SOME OF OUR COUNTIES                 
 HAVE LIKELY HAD A DUSTING...A PREVIEW IF YOU WILL. LOOKING NOW AT              
 BAND OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SLEET ACROSS CNTRL MS MOVING NE...THIS               
 WILL POSSIBLY BE OUR FIRST MEASURABLE EPISODE FOR THIS EVENT...AND             
 SHOULD BE IN FORM OF SNOW AS RUC SOUNDING FOR FYM SHOWS ALL SNOW               
 ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN TN UNTIL ABOUT 09Z. MAY HAVE TO UPDATE FOR                 
 TIMING IF THIS BAND MOVES IN B4 MIDNITE.                                       
 &&                                                                             
 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 149 PM CST WED JAN 31 2007/                        
 SHORT TERM...MODELS ARE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT FOR MID TN                     
 WX...ESPECIALLY FOR A WINTER EVENT. GFS SEEMS CONSISTENT WITH                  
 THERMAL PROFILES FROM PREVIOUS RUN AND NAM ACTUALLY APPEARS A                  
 LITTLE COLDER IN THE NORTH AND PLATEAU. THIS MAY MEAN                          
 PRECIPITATION WILL STAY SNOW LONGER THEN PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT FOR                
 THE NORTH HALF. QPF AND SNOWFALL OUTPUT FROM MODELS ACTUALLY IN                
 PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT AS WELL FOR MID TN. WITH ALL OF THIS                     
 SAID...SNOW IS HARD TO COME BY IN THIS REGION SO THERE ARE MANY                
 THINGS THAT CAN SPOIL THIS EVENT (LACK OF MOISTURE...TOO WARM).                
 THIS FORECAST IS NOT A BIG CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS PACKAGE...BUT                  
 THE LATEST MODEL DATA HAVE HELPED LEAN US TOWARD A STRONGER                    
 HEADLINE ON THE NORTH PLATEAU.                                                 
 AIR MASS IN PLACE IS COLD...TEMPERATURES NOT REACHING PROJECTED                
 HIGHS TODAY ALTHOUGH WE MAY JUMP A FEW MORE DEGREES INTO THE LOW               
 30S LATE THIS AFTERNOON. MOISTURE WILL SPREAD RAPIDLY ACROSS THE               
 REGION TONIGHT WITH ALL SIGNS POINTING TOWARD SNOW. VERY DRY LOW               
 LEVELS WILL TAKE A WHILE TO MOISTEN...BUT MOST AREAS COULD HAVE                
 AROUND 1 INCH BY DAYBREAK THURSDAY.                                            
 FOR SOUTHERN TIER OF COUNTIES...SNOW WILL OCCUR TONIGHT WITH MAYBE             
 AN INCH...BUT WILL QUICKLY TRANSITION TO RAIN THURSDAY MORNING.                
 THERE MAY BE A MESSY TIME WITH FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET...BUT                   
 TEMPERATURES SHOULD WARM WELL INTO THE 30S BY LATE MORNING.                    
 FOR AREAS FARTHER NORTH...SNOW WILL DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT AND                   
 CONTINUE THROUGH MID MORNING THURSDAY. THEN THE MIX OF CHANGE TO               
 SLEET AND RAIN WILL OCCUR AFTER 16Z WITH TEMPERATURES RISING ABOVE             
 FREEZING. THESE AREAS INCLUDING NASHVILLE WILL PROBABLY SEE 1 TO 2             
 INCHES BEFORE MIDDAY.                                                          
 MOST OF THE MID STATE WILL BE UNDER AN ADVISORY WHILE THE HIGHER               
 ELEVATIONS OF THE NORTH PLATEAU ARE EXPECTED TO REACH WINTER STORM             
 WARNING CRITERIA. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST MAINLY SNOW THROUGH               
 MUCH OF THE DAY FOR CROSSVILLE AND JAMESTOWN...SO WE ARE FORECASTING UP        
 TO 4 INCHES THERE.                                                             
 STILL A CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION LATE THURSDAY AND INTO THE                     
 NIGHT...BUT MARGINAL TEMPERATURES AND LIGHT PRECIP...SO NOT                    
 CALLING FOR ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS AT THIS TIME. TEMPERATES MAY              
 FALL BELOW FREEZING CAUSING MORE TRAVEL PROBLEMS.                              
 LONG TERM...A SERIES OF COLD BLASTS WILL INVADE THE REGION IN THE              
 EXTENDED FORECAST. DISTURBANCES MAY BRING PERIODS OF SNOW SHOWERS              
 AND LOCALIZED MINOR SNOW ACCUMULATIONS. FOR NOW JUST MENTIONING                
 SOME FLURRIES WITH MOST SIGNIFICANT FRONTS. FOCUS SHOULD BE ON                 
 VERY COLD READINGS...WHICH WILL HAVE MOST AREAS IN THE SINGLE                  
 DIGITS FOR LOWS AND ONLY 20S FOR HIGHS EARLY NEXT WEEK.                        
 &&                                                                             
 .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                               
 NASHVILLE    26  37  30  36 /  90 100  70  10                                  
 CLARKSVILLE  26  33  28  34 /  90 100  70  10                                  
 CROSSVILLE   25  33  29  33 /  90 100  70  20                                  
 &&                                                                             
 .OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                            
 WINTER STORM WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT THURSDAY TO 4 PM THURSDAY FOR               
 THE FOLLOWING ZONES: CUMBERLAND...FENTRESS...OVERTON...PICKETT...              
 PUTNAM...VAN BUREN...AND WHITE.                                                
 WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT THURSDAY TO 4 PM THURSDAY                
 FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: BENTON...CANNON...CHEATHAM...CLAY...                  
 DAVIDSON...DEKALB...DICKSON...HICKMAN...HOUSTON...HUMPHREYS...                 
 JACKSON...MACON...MONTGOMERY...PERRY...ROBERTSON...RUTHERFORD...               
 SMITH...STEWART...SUMNER...TROUSDALE...WARREN...WILLIAMSON...AND               
 WILSON.                                                                        
 WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT THURSDAY TO 10 AM THURSDAY               
 FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: BEDFORD...COFFEE...GILES...GRUNDY...                  
 LAWRENCE...LEWIS...MARSHALL...MAURY...AND WAYNE.                               
 &&                                                                             
 $$                                                                             
 MAG                                                                            
</pre> tn                                                                       

 AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                       
 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN                                            
 342 PM CST WED JAN 31 2007                                                     
 .UPDATE...                                                                     
 QUICK UPDATE TO ADD MISSISSIPPI COUNTY IN ARKANSAS AND LAKE...DYER             
 AND OBION COUNTIES IN TENNESSEE TO THE SNOW ADVISORTY. RADAR AND SURFACE       
 TRENDS INDICATE THE SNOW MOVING EAST. ROAD CONDITIONS GETTING                  
 SLIPPERY VERY QUICKLY DUE TO COLD TEMPERATURES. LATEST RUC MODEL SOME          
 HELP WITH PROGRESSION OF SNOWFALL...BUT STRONGER LOW LEVEL COLD AIR THAN       
 ANTICIPATED PROVIDING BETTER THAN FORECAST ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE FOR              
 LIFTED MOTION                                                                  
 &&                                                                             
 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 302 PM CST WED JAN 31 2007/                        
 SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
 COLD HIGH RETREATING OFF THE EAST COAST.  RADAR TRENDS SHOW                    
 PRECIPITATION BREAKING OUT ACROSS THE PLAINS AND ARKANSAS THIS AFTERNOON.      
 WITH THE LOW LEVELS SO DRY...MUCH OF THE PRECIPITATION INDICATED               
 ON RADAR IS NOT REACHING THE GROUND. HOWEVER OVER NORTHEAST                    
 ARKANSAS IT IS. WITH LOW LEVELS SO COLD SNOWFALL ACCUMULATING ON               
 ROADS FAST. ACTUAL TEMPERATURES COLDER THAN THE MODELS BY                      
 GENERALLY 5 DEGREES. WITH MODELS NOT HANDLING THE LOW LEVEL                    
 TEMPERATURES AT THIS TIME THIS MAY HAVE IMPLICATIONS TO OUR SHORT              
 TERM FORECAST.                                                                 
 SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)...                                 
 RADAR TRENDS SHOW SNOWFALL TO CONTINUE OVER NORTHEAST ARKANSAS FOR             
 SOME TIME. ACCUMULATIONS OF AROUND AN INCH ARE EXPECTED. WITH                  
 TEMPS IN THE LOWER 20S ALL OF THE SNOW IS STICKING NICELY. HAVE                
 DECIDED TO GO WITH AN ADVISORY THROUGH MID-MORNING THURSDAY.                   
 FOR THE REST OF THE AREA MIXED PRECIPITATION EXPECTED AFTER                    
 MIDNIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY FOR MUCH OF THE MID-SOUTH. MUCH OF THE               
 LIFT FOR THIS EVENT IS ISENTROPIC AND BROAD IN NATURE. ALTHOUGH                
 JET STREAK IS FAIRLY STRONG THERE IS LITTLE IN THE WAY OF SURFACE              
 CYCLOGENESIS. CONSEQUENTLY PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WILL BE BROAD AND             
 LIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. REGARDLESS...IT DOESN`T TAKE MUCH                
 WINTER PRECIPITATION TO CAUSE TRAVEL ISSUES IN THE MIDSOUTH. THIS              
 COUPLED WITH THE FIRST EVENT OF THE SEASON AND WE HAVE A NEED TO               
 PINPOINT THE IMPACTS.                                                          
 OUR PRECIPITATION WILL COME IN TWO BURSTS. TONIGHT...MIXED                     
 PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP WITH THE HEAVIEST OCCURRING               
 IN NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI IN THE LOCATION OF THE BEST ISENTROPIC                
 LIFT AND MOISTURE. THE PROBLEM IS THERMAL PROFILES INDICATE AN                 
 ONSET OF FREEZING RAIN FROM FULTON TO TUPELO TO OXFORD. THIS IS                
 WHERE TRAVEL WILL BE IMPACTED MOST WITH PRECIPITATION TURNING OVER             
 TO RAIN LATER ON THURSDAY. AN ADVISORY WILL BE NEEDED IN THIS AREA             
 LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY.                                               
 TO THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST OF THIS AREA...THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD             
 BEGIN AS SNOW...HOWEVER AMOUNTS ARE IN QUESTION WITH ACCUMULATIONS             
 RANGING FROM AN INCH TO ONLY A DUSTING. THIS MAKES IT HARD TO                  
 DETERMINE WHETHER WE SHOULD ISSUE AN ADVISORY. FOR NOW WE`LL HOLD              
 OFF AND WAIT ON ANY WIDESPREAD ADVISORIES...EXCEPT IN NORTHEAST                
 ARKANSAS AND MISSOURI BOOTHEEL...UNTIL WE CAN GET A BETTER HANDLE              
 ON THE EVOLUTION OF THE PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS.                                 
 THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT ARE PROBLEMATIC.  ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE           
 MOVES INTO MS/AL RESULTING IN PRECIPITATION REDEVELOPING IN THE                
 AFTERNOON.  AGAIN QUESTION WILL BE THE TYPE.  FOR NOW BELIEVE THE              
 MODEL THERMAL PROFILES MAY BE TOO WARM IN THE LOWER LEVELS (THEY               
 SUGGEST A DRY ADIABATIC PROFILE WITH PRECIPITATION?) WILL KEEP RAIN            
 FOR THE SOUTH THIRD OF THE FORECAST AREA...A MIX OF THE MIDDLE THIRD           
 AND ALL SNOW TO THE NORTH.  AGAIN PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WILL BE                
 LIGHT...BUT DEPENDING ON HOW TEMPERATURES PLAY OUT A WINTER WEATHER            
 ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED.                                                        
 WILL USE THE UKMET/GFS/CANADIAN FOR THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY.  NAM            
 IS TOO SLOW WITH COLD AIR SEEPING IN.  CONSEQUENTLY WILL GO LOWER              
 THAN GUIDANCE WITH FLURRIES POSSIBLE IN THE STRONG COLD AIR                    
 ADVECTION.  OVERALL THE TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE THROUGH THIS PERIOD               
 LOOKS WARM.  BUT THIS SHOULD NOT BE SURPRISING WITH LOW LEVEL COLD             
 AIR IN PLACE. ...BELLES...                                                     
 LONG TERM (SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...LONG RANGE MODELS IN                  
 GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH AN ARCTIC LOW PINWHEELING AROUND HUDSON BAY             
 THROUGH THE PERIOD AND A LONGWAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE LOWER              
 MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ON SUNDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH             
 THE REGION ON MONDAY WITH COLD HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING BACK INTO                
 THE AREA FOR NEXT WEEK. ADJUSTED TEMPERATURES TOWARD THE LOW END               
 OF THE GFS ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE SINCE OPERATIONAL GFS NUMERICAL                   
 GUIDANCE SEEMS TO BE TOO WARM THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK                
 BASED ON UPPER AIR PATTERN AND VERY COLD 850MB TEMPERATURES.                   
  ...CJC...                                                                     
 &&                                                                             
 .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                               
 MEM  27  38  30  38 /  80 100  60  10                                          
 MKL  23  36  28  35 /  80  90  60  10                                          
 JBR  20  34  24  34 /  80  90  60  10                                          
 TUP  29  39  33  41 /  90 100  60  10                                          
 &&                                                                             
 .MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                            
 AR...SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST THURSDAY FOR CLAY-CRAIGHEAD-GREENE-          
      LAWRENCE-MISSISSIPPI-RANDOLPH.                                            
 MO...SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST THURSDAY FOR DUNKLIN-PEMISCOT.               
 MS...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM CST                 
      THURSDAY FOR ALCORN-BENTON(MS)-ITAWAMBA-LAFAYETTE-LEE(MS)-                
      MARSHALL-PONTOTOC-PRENTISS-TIPPAH-TISHOMINGO-UNION.                       
 TN...SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST THURSDAY FOR DYER-LAKE-OBION.                
      WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM CST                 
      THURSDAY FOR HARDEMAN-HARDIN-MCNAIRY.                                     
 &&                                                                             
 $$                                                                             
</pre> tn                                                                       

 AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE                                              
 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX                                         
 730 PM CST WED JAN 31 2007                                                     
 .UPDATE...                                                                     
 LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE BEHIND EXITING SHORT WAVE IS CURRENTLY IN               
 PLACE OVER NORTH TEXAS.  OTHER THAN A FEW SPRINKLES DEVELOPING                 
 LATE IN THE EVENING IT NOW APPEARS THAT ANY MEASURABLE RAIN WILL               
 HOLD OFF OVER NORTH TEXAS UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT.  THEREFORE...WE WILL           
 LOWER POPS TO SLIGHT CHANCES THE REST OF THE EVENING...BUT KEEP HIGH           
 RAIN CHANCES OVERNIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING.                                   
 THE COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO SURGE SOUTHWARD OVER WEST TEXAS BUT THE            
 EASTERN PORTION OF THE FRONT IS STILL NORTH OF OKC. WE EXPECT THE              
 FRONT TO MOVE THROUGH THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF NORTH TEXAS AFTER                
 MIDNIGHT AND THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION AFTER SUNRISE                 
 THURSDAY.  AS OF NOW...LOW LEVEL TEMPERATURE PROFILES SUGGEST THAT             
 ALL PRECIPITAION SHOULD FALL AS RAIN SO WE WILL LEAVE THE FORECAST             
 AS SUCH.  HOWEVER...WE WILL BE EXAMINING THE 00Z MODELS AS WELL AS             
 SURFACE TRENDS CLOSELY THROUGH THE EVENING.                                    
 OTHER THAN LOWERING THE EVENING POPS...WE WILL ADJUST CLOUD                    
 COVER...TEMPS...DEW POINTS AND WINDS BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS.                  
 79.                                                                            
 &&                                                                             
 .AVIATION...                                                                   
 520 PM CST                                                                     
 SHORT TERM CLEARING AREAS HAS MOVED INTO THE DFW TRACON AREA WITH              
 BOTH IR AND VIS SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING THE BACK EDGE NEAR A                 
 SPS-DFW-ACT LINE.  LOOKING AT THE FORECAST TRENDS OVERNIGHT RUC AND            
 GFS BOTH INDICATING RETURN MOISTURE FROM LOW LEVEL JET WITH THE                
 LAYER FROM SURFACE TO 2K FEET NEARLY SATURATED BY 09Z SO EXPECT IFR            
 CONDITIONS FOR AIRPORTS THURSDAY AM.  WILL CONTINUE WITH LIGHT RAIN OR         
 DRIZZLE DEVELOPING BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND 300 AM THURSDAY MORNING AND            
 CONTINUING THROUGH MOST OF THURSDAY.  WIND SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST                  
 OVERNIGHT BECOMING MORE EASTERLY THURSDAY AM AND NORTHERLY THURSDAY            
 AFTERNOON WITH WIND SPEED BETWEEN 6-10 KNOTS.                                  
 50                                                                             
 &&                                                                             
 .DISCUSSION...                                                                 
 MUCH OF NORTH TEXAS IS EXPERIENCING A BRIEF BREAK IN PRECIP                    
 COURTEOUSY OF SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE DEPARTING SHORTWAVE. LIGHT                 
 RETURNS OF MOSTLY RAIN CONTINUE ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN                
 ZONES. TEMPERATURES OUTSIDE OF THE PRECIP AREAS ARE NOW REACHING               
 THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S.                                                      
 THE NEXT SHORTWAVE TO AFFECT NORTH TEXAS LATER TONIGHT THROUGH                 
 TOMORROW IS NOW LOCATED NEAR BAJA. A WEAK COLD FRONT NOW BISECTING             
 THE COUNTRY WILL MOVE INTO NORTH TEXAS TOMORROW. THIS FRONT WILL               
 LIKELY SLOW DOWN AND BECOME SOMEWHAT ILL-DEFINED AS UPPER LEVEL                
 ENERGY BECOMES STRUNG OUT IN STRONG FLOW ALOFT. PRECIP CHANCES                 
 THROUGH TOMORROW WILL BE THE BEST IN THE SOUTH AND EAST...WHERE                
 FRONTOGENESIS WILL BE MAXIMIZED. EXPECT THIS ROUND OF PRECIP TO BE             
 ALL LIQUID AS CLOUDS AND RAIN WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES ABOVE                     
 FREEZING...ALTHOUGH 18Z RUNS HAVE TRENDED SLIGHTLY COLDER THAN                 
 THE 12Z RUNS. IF THE COLD AIR ARRIVES EARLIER AND DEEPER THAN THE              
 CURRENT THINKING...A WINTRY MIX MAY NEED TO BE INCLUDED IN THE                 
 NORTHERN ZONES. THE FRONT WILL REMAIN IN THE SOUTHERN CWA                      
 TOMORROW...EFFECTIVELY KEEPING THE COLDER AIR BOTTLED UP IN THE                
 NORTHERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE CWA. THIS WILL CREATE QUITE A                       
 DIFFERENCE BETWEEN DIURNAL TEMPERATURES IN THE NORTH AND THE                   
 SOUTH.                                                                         
 UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL BECOME MORE MERIDIONAL OVER THE NEXT FEW              
 DAYS AS TALL RIDGING COMES ASHORE ON THE WEST COAST...PUSHING THE              
 BROAD TROUGH FARTHER EAST. SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL ROUND THE BASE OF             
 THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND SKIRT THE NORTHERN SECTIONS FRIDAY AND              
 SATURDAY. IN ADDITION...A STRONG ARCTIC FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH                
 NORTH TEXAS ON FRIDAY. MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED...AND HAVE ONLY                
 INCLUDED A SLIGHT CHANCE IN THE NORTHERN ZONES. TEMPERATURE                    
 PROFILES WILL BE COLD ENOUGH IN THE CHILLY AIR BEHIND THE FRONT                
 FOR PRECIP TO FALL AS A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW.                                  
 TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO REBOUND SOMEWHAT BY SUNDAY. HOWEVER...              
 THIS WILL BE TEMPERED BY A REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR ON MONDAY.             
 THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN LOOKS TO BE NEXT TUESDAY AS ISENTROPIC                 
 LIFT BECOMES ESTABLISHED ON THE 285K AND 290K PLANES.  /13                     
 &&                                                                             
 .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                               
 DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  37  46  31  41  26 /  70  50  10  10  10                 
 WACO, TX              42  54  36  51  34 /  80  50  10  10  10                 
 PARIS, TX             33  40  32  39  22 /  70  80  20  20  10                 
 DENTON, TX            34  45  30  37  23 /  60  50  10  10  10                 
 MCKINNEY, TX          37  44  31  38  24 /  70  70  10  10  10                 
 DALLAS, TX            38  48  36  43  30 /  70  60  10  10  10                 
 TERRELL, TX           37  47  33  42  30 /  80  80  10  10  10                 
 CORSICANA, TX         38  51  35  46  31 /  80  80  10  10  10                 
 TEMPLE, TX            41  56  38  56  34 /  80  50  10  10  10                 
 &&                                                                             
 .FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                            
 NONE.                                                                          
 &&                                                                             
 $$                                                                             
 42/13                                                                          
</pre> tx                                                                       

 AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                       
 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX                                         
 322 PM CST WED JAN 31 2007                                                     
 ...AVIATION                                                                    
 SHORT TERM CLEARING AREAS HAS MOVED INTO THE DFW TRACON AREA WITH              
 BOTH IR AND VIS SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING THE BACK EDGE NEAR A                 
 SPS-DFW-ACT LINE.  LOOKING AT THE FORECAST TRENDS OVERNIGHT RUC AND            
 GFS BOTH INDICATING RETURN MOISTURE FROM LOW LEVEL JET WITH THE                
 LAYER FROM SURFACE TO 2K FEET NEARLY SATURATED BY 09Z SO EXPECT IFR            
 CONDITIONS FOR AIRPORTS THURSDAY AM.  WILL CONTINUE WITH LIGHT RAIN            
 OR DRIZZLE DEVELOPING BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND 300 AM THURSDAY MORNING             
 AND CONTINUING THROUGH MOST OF THURSDAY.  WIND SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST              
 OVERNIGHT BECOMING MORE EASTERLY THURSDAY AM AND NORTHERLY THURSDAY            
 AFTERNOON WITH WIND SPEED BETWEEN 6-10 KNOTS.                                  
 50                                                                             
 &&                                                                             
 .DISCUSSION...                                                                 
 MUCH OF NORTH TEXAS IS EXPERIENCING A BRIEF BREAK IN PRECIP                    
 COURTEOUSY OF SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE DEPARTING SHORTWAVE. LIGHT                 
 RETURNS OF MOSTLY RAIN CONTINUE ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN                
 ZONES. TEMPERATURES OUTSIDE OF THE PRECIP AREAS ARE NOW REACHING               
 THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S.                                                      
 THE NEXT SHORTWAVE TO AFFECT NORTH TEXAS LATER TONIGHT THROUGH                 
 TOMORROW IS NOW LOCATED NEAR BAJA. A WEAK COLD FRONT NOW BISECTING             
 THE COUNTRY WILL MOVE INTO NORTH TEXAS TOMORROW. THIS FRONT WILL               
 LIKELY SLOW DOWN AND BECOME SOMEWHAT ILL-DEFINED AS UPPER LEVEL                
 ENERGY BECOMES STRUNG OUT IN STRONG FLOW ALOFT. PRECIP CHANCES                 
 THROUGH TOMORROW WILL BE THE BEST IN THE SOUTH AND EAST...WHERE                
 FRONTOGENESIS WILL BE MAXIMIZED. EXPECT THIS ROUND OF PRECIP TO BE             
 ALL LIQUID AS CLOUDS AND RAIN WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES ABOVE                     
 FREEZING...ALTHOUGH 18Z RUNS HAVE TRENDED SLIGHTLY COLDER THAN                 
 THE 12Z RUNS. IF THE COLD AIR ARRIVES EARLIER AND DEEPER THAN THE              
 CURRENT THINKING...A WINTRY MIX MAY NEED TO BE INCLUDED IN THE                 
 NORTHERN ZONES. THE FRONT WILL REMAIN IN THE SOUTHERN CWA                      
 TOMORROW...EFFECTIVELY KEEPING THE COLDER AIR BOTTLED UP IN THE                
 NORTHERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE CWA. THIS WILL CREATE QUITE A                       
 DIFFERENCE BETWEEN DIURNAL TEMPERATURES IN THE NORTH AND THE                   
 SOUTH.                                                                         
 UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL BECOME MORE MERIDIONAL OVER THE NEXT FEW              
 DAYS AS TALL RIDGING COMES ASHORE ON THE WEST COAST...PUSHING THE              
 BROAD TROUGH FARTHER EAST. SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL ROUND THE BASE OF             
 THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND SKIRT THE NORTHERN SECTIONS FRIDAY AND              
 SATURDAY. IN ADDITION...A STRONG ARCTIC FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH                
 NORTH TEXAS ON FRIDAY. MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED...AND HAVE ONLY                
 INCLUDED A SLIGHT CHANCE IN THE NORTHERN ZONES. TEMPERATURE                    
 PROFILES WILL BE COLD ENOUGH IN THE CHILLY AIR BEHIND THE FRONT                
 FOR PRECIP TO FALL AS A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW.                                  
 TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO REBOUND SOMEWHAT BY SUNDAY. HOWEVER...              
 THIS WILL BE TEMPERED BY A REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR ON MONDAY.             
 THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN LOOKS TO BE NEXT TUESDAY AS ISENTROPIC                 
 LIFT BECOMES ESTABLISHED ON THE 285K AND 290K PLANES.  /13                     
 &&                                                                             
 .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                               
 DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  37  46  31  41  26 /  70  50  10  10  10                 
 WACO, TX              42  54  36  51  34 /  80  50  10  10  10                 
 PARIS, TX             33  40  32  39  22 /  70  80  20  20  10                 
 DENTON, TX            34  45  30  37  23 /  60  50  10  10  10                 
 MCKINNEY, TX          37  44  31  38  24 /  70  70  10  10  10                 
 DALLAS, TX            38  48  36  43  30 /  70  60  10  10  10                 
 TERRELL, TX           37  47  33  42  30 /  80  80  10  10  10                 
 CORSICANA, TX         38  51  35  46  31 /  80  80  10  10  10                 
 TEMPLE, TX            41  56  38  56  34 /  80  50  10  10  10                 
 &&                                                                             
 .FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                            
 NONE.                                                                          
 &&                                                                             
 $$                                                                             
 42/13                                                                          
</pre> tx                                                                       

 AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                       
 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX                                         
 1152 PM CST TUE JAN 30 2007                                                    
 .UPDATE...                                                                     
 LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATES TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE BIG                  
 COUNTRY HAVE FALLEN A LITTLE FASTER THAN WE WERE ANTICIPATING. THE             
 STRATUS...CURRENTLY MOVING NORTH ACROSS THE CONCHO VALLEY...WILL               
 LIKELY NOT MAKE IT INTO THE BIG COUNTRY FOR ANOTHER COUPLE HOURS.              
 THUS...JUST SENT AN UPDATE TO LOWER OVERNIGHT LOWS A COUPLE                    
 DEGREES...MAINLY ACROSS THE BIG COUNTRY. ALSO...ADJUSTED SKY                   
 CONDITIONS FOR THE REMAINDER OF TONIGHT. AS FOR PRECIPITATION FOR              
 THE REMAINDER OF TONIGHT...LATEST RUC SOUNDING DATA SUGGESTS                   
 COLUMN OVER THE BIG COUNTRY WILL CONTINUE TO SATURATE AND REMAIN               
 AT OR JUST BELOW THE FREEZING MARK UNTIL AROUND 12Z. THEN...A                  
 WARMER LAYER...CENTERED AROUND 800 MB...EDGES A COUPLE DEGREES C               
 ABOVE FREEZING. SO...DECIDED TO MAINTAIN THE MENTION OF SNOW FOR               
 THE REMAINDER OF TONIGHT ACROSS THE BIG COUNTRY. HOWEVER...AS                  
 BEFORE...WE EXPECT LITTLE OR NO ACCUMULATION. ELSEWHERE...LIQUID               
 PRECIPITATION STILL LOOKS BEST.                                                
 23/HUBER                                                                       
 &&                                                                             
 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1127 PM CST TUE JAN 30 2007/                       
 AVIATION...                                                                    
 AREAS OF MVFR CIGS OF BKN010-020 ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS                
 WEST CENTRAL TEXAS AFTER 31/11Z...WITH MVFR CIGS BECOMING MORE                 
 WIDESPREAD AFTER 31/14Z. SCT SHRA WILL DEVELOP ACROSS WEST                     
 CENTRAL TEXAS AFTER 31/09Z...POSSIBLY MIXED WITH SLEET AND SNOW                
 ACROSS THE BIG COUNTRY UNTIL 31/18Z. ALSO...SURFACE WINDS WILL                 
 BECOME SOUTHERLY AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS LATE TONIGHT AND                            
 WEDNESDAY.  21                                                                 
 PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 914 PM CST TUE JAN 30 2007/                         
 UPDATE...                                                                      
 LATEST SATELLITE AND WSR-88D DATA INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR                   
 SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTHERN BIG COUNTRY...WITH THE BEST RADAR                  
 RETURN CURRENTLY OVER HASKELL COUNTY AND THROCKMORTON COUNTY.                  
 SURFACE WINDS ACROSS WEST CENTRAL TEXAS REMAIN MAINLY NORTHEAST.               
 HOWEVER...LATEST RUC DATA INDICATE WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHEAST                 
 OVERNIGHT. THUS...CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK.                             
 23/HUBER                                                                       
 PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 327 PM CST TUE JAN 30 2007/                         
 SHORT TERM...                                                                  
 UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS WERE REDEVELOPING FROM THE WEST WITH UPSLOPE                
 FLOW BEHIND COLD FRONT THIS AFTERNOON (AT LEAST SOUTH OF                       
 INTERSTATE 20). WATER VAPOR LOOP INDICATED UPPER LEVEL LOW WAS                 
 OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA...WITH SOME LIFT INDICATED AHEAD OF THE               
 SYSTEM OVER ARIZONA AND NEW MEXICO.                                            
 MID LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES LATE TONIGHT AS UPPER LEVEL LOW                   
 SHEARS OUT AND MOVES TOWARD THE REGION...AND RIDING OVER THE COLD              
 FRONT. MAY SEE SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION TOWARD MORNING. GFS                    
 FORECAST SOUNDING INDICATE THIS TO BE SNOW OR SNOW/RAIN MIXTURE IN             
 THE BIG COUNTRY...IF IT OCCURS. DO NOT ANTICIPATED ACCUMULATIONS.              
 WENT A LITTLE LOWER ON TEMPERATURES (FROM MAV GUIDANCE) ACROSS THE             
 BIG COUNTRY WHERE IT MAY TAKE A LITTLE LONGER FOR CLOUD COVER TO               
 COME IN TONIGHT.                                                               
 LONG TERM...                                                                   
 BEST SHORTWAVE/LIFT COMES IN WEDNESDAY TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES                   
 PROFILES INDICATE THIS TO BE MAINLY RAIN...THROUGH ITS POSSIBLE                
 SOME SLEET MAY OCCUR IN NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE BIG COUNTRY.                  
 RAIN CHANCES TAPER OFF THURSDAY MORNING. NEXT COLD FRONT COMES IN              
 ON FRIDAY...KEEPING TEMPERATURES ON THE COOL SIDE THIS WEEKEND.                
 MOISTURE TOO SHALLOW FOR ANY SIGNIFICANT RAIN THIS                             
 WEEKEND...THOUGH CANT RULE OUT A SPRINKLE OR TWO.                              
 ECMWF DIFFER IN HANDLING ANOTHER COLD FRONT NEXT WEEK. ECMWF HAS               
 COLD FRONT MONDAY...WHICH BUILDS IN VERY STRONGLY THROUGH                      
 TUESDAY. THE GFS PUSHES MOST OF THE COLD AIR TO THE EAST ON                    
 MONDAY...WITH ONLY A WEAKER COLD FRONT. IT THEN BRINGS WEST CENTRAL            
 TEXAS IN SOUTHERLY WARM ADVECTION TUESDAY...BEFORE A SECOND                    
 STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES IN TUESDAY NIGHT. WILL GO WITH THE COLDER              
 ECMWF SOLUTION FOR NOW...AS A LOT OF TIMES FRONT GETS CHANNELS                 
 AGAINST THE ROCKY MOUNTAINS.                                                   
 &&                                                                             
 .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                               
 ABILENE  29  48  37  48 /  20  30  50  20                                      
 SAN ANGELO  34  51  40  55 /  20  20  50  20                                   
 JUNCTION  37  49  44  60 /  20  20  50  20                                     
 &&                                                                             
 .SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                            
 NONE.                                                                          
 &&                                                                             
 $$                                                                             
 23/23                                                                          
</pre> tx                                                                       

 AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                       
 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX                                         
 1127 PM CST TUE JAN 30 2007                                                    
 .AVIATION...                                                                   
 AREAS OF MVFR CIGS OF BKN010-020 ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS                
 WEST CENTRAL TEXAS AFTER 31/11Z...WITH MVFR CIGS BECOMING MORE                 
 WIDESPREAD AFTER 31/14Z. SCT SHRA WILL DEVELOP ACROSS WEST                     
 CENTRAL TEXAS AFTER 31/09Z...POSSIBLY MIXED WITH SLEET AND SNOW                
 ACROSS THE BIG COUNTRY UNTIL 31/18Z. ALSO...SURFACE WINDS WILL                 
 BECOME SOUTHERLY AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS LATE TONIGHT AND                            
 WEDNESDAY.  21                                                                 
 &&                                                                             
 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 914 PM CST TUE JAN 30 2007/                        
 UPDATE...                                                                      
 LATEST SATELLITE AND WSR-88D DATA INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR                   
 SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTHERN BIG COUNTRY...WITH THE BEST RADAR                  
 RETURN CURRENTLY OVER HASKELL COUNTY AND THROCKMORTON COUNTY.                  
 SURFACE WINDS ACROSS WEST CENTRAL TEXAS REMAIN MAINLY NORTHEAST.               
 HOWEVER...LATEST RUC DATA INDICATE WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHEAST                 
 OVERNIGHT. THUS...CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK.                             
 23/HUBER                                                                       
 PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 327 PM CST TUE JAN 30 2007/                         
 SHORT TERM...                                                                  
 UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS WERE REDEVELOPING FROM THE WEST WITH UPSLOPE                
 FLOW BEHIND COLD FRONT THIS AFTERNOON (AT LEAST SOUTH OF                       
 INTERSTATE 20). WATER VAPOR LOOP INDICATED UPPER LEVEL LOW WAS                 
 OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA...WITH SOME LIFT INDICATED AHEAD OF THE               
 SYSTEM OVER ARIZONA AND NEW MEXICO.                                            
 MID LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES LATE TONIGHT AS UPPER LEVEL LOW                   
 SHEARS OUT AND MOVES TOWARD THE REGION...AND RIDING OVER THE COLD              
 FRONT. MAY SEE SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION TOWARD MORNING. GFS                    
 FORECAST SOUNDING INDICATE THIS TO BE SNOW OR SNOW/RAIN MIXTURE IN             
 THE BIG COUNTRY...IF IT OCCURS. DO NOT ANTICIPATED ACCUMULATIONS.              
 WENT A LITTLE LOWER ON TEMPERATURES (FROM MAV GUIDANCE) ACROSS THE             
 BIG COUNTRY WHERE IT MAY TAKE A LITTLE LONGER FOR CLOUD COVER TO               
 COME IN TONIGHT.                                                               
 LONG TERM...                                                                   
 BEST SHORTWAVE/LIFT COMES IN WEDNESDAY TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES                   
 PROFILES INDICATE THIS TO BE MAINLY RAIN...THROUGH ITS POSSIBLE                
 SOME SLEET MAY OCCUR IN NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE BIG COUNTRY.                  
 RAIN CHANCES TAPER OFF THURSDAY MORNING. NEXT COLD FRONT COMES IN              
 ON FRIDAY...KEEPING TEMPERATURES ON THE COOL SIDE THIS WEEKEND.                
 MOISTURE TOO SHALLOW FOR ANY SIGNIFICANT RAIN THIS                             
 WEEKEND...THOUGH CANT RULE OUT A SPRINKLE OR TWO.                              
 ECMWF DIFFER IN HANDLING ANOTHER COLD FRONT NEXT WEEK. ECMWF HAS               
 COLD FRONT MONDAY...WHICH BUILDS IN VERY STRONGLY THROUGH                      
 TUESDAY. THE GFS PUSHES MOST OF THE COLD AIR TO THE EAST ON                    
 MONDAY...WITH ONLY A WEAKER COLD FRONT. IT THEN BRINGS WEST CENTRAL            
 TEXAS IN SOUTHERLY WARM ADVECTION TUESDAY...BEFORE A SECOND                    
 STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES IN TUESDAY NIGHT. WILL GO WITH THE COLDER              
 ECMWF SOLUTION FOR NOW...AS A LOT OF TIMES FRONT GETS CHANNELS                 
 AGAINST THE ROCKY MOUNTAINS.                                                   
 &&                                                                             
 .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                               
 ABILENE  31  48  37  48 /  20  30  50  20                                      
 SAN ANGELO  34  51  40  55 /  20  20  50  20                                   
 JUNCTION  37  49  44  60 /  20  20  50  20                                     
 &&                                                                             
 .SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                            
 NONE.                                                                          
 &&                                                                             
 $$                                                                             
</pre> tx                                                                       

 AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                       
 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX                                         
 914 PM CST TUE JAN 30 2007                                                     
 .UPDATE...                                                                     
 LATEST SATELLITE AND WSR-88D DATA INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR                   
 SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTHERN BIG COUNTRY...WITH THE BEST RADAR                  
 RETURN CURRENTLY OVER HASKELL COUNTY AND THROCKMORTON COUNTY.                  
 SURFACE WINDS ACROSS WEST CENTRAL TEXAS REMAIN MAINLY NORTHEAST.               
 HOWEVER...LATEST RUC DATA INDICATE WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHEAST                 
 OVERNIGHT. THUS...CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK.                             
 23/HUBER                                                                       
 &&                                                                             
 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 533 PM CST TUE JAN 30 2007/                        
 AVIATION...                                                                    
 COLD FRONT HAS MOVED SOUTH OF WEST CENTRAL TEXAS...WITH SURFACE                
 NORTH TO NORTHEAST OF AROUND 10 KNOTS. SURFACE WINDS WILL RETURN               
 TO SOUTHERLY AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS ON WEDNESDAY. AREAS OF MVFR CIGS                
 OF BKN010-020 ARE EXPECTED ACROSS WEST CENTRAL TEXAS AFTER 31/09Z              
 ..WITH MVFR CIGS BECOMING MORE WIDESPREAD AFTER 31/13Z. SCT SHRA               
 WILL DEVELOP ACROSS WEST CENTRAL TEXAS AFTER 31/09Z...POSSIBLY                 
 MIXED WITH SLEET AND SNOW ACROSS THE BIG COUNTRY.  21                          
 PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 327 PM CST TUE JAN 30 2007/                         
 SHORT TERM...                                                                  
 UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS WERE REDEVELOPING FROM THE WEST WITH UPSLOPE                
 FLOW BEHIND COLD FRONT THIS AFTERNOON (AT LEAST SOUTH OF                       
 INTERSTATE 20). WATER VAPOR LOOP INDICATED UPPER LEVEL LOW WAS                 
 OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA...WITH SOME LIFT INDICATED AHEAD OF THE               
 SYSTEM OVER ARIZONA AND NEW MEXICO.                                            
 MID LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES LATE TONIGHT AS UPPER LEVEL LOW                   
 SHEARS OUT AND MOVES TOWARD THE REGION...AND RIDING OVER THE COLD              
 FRONT. MAY SEE SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION TOWARD MORNING. GFS                    
 FORECAST SOUNDING INDICATE THIS TO BE SNOW OR SNOW/RAIN MIXTURE IN             
 THE BIG COUNTRY...IF IT OCCURS. DO NOT ANTICIPATED ACCUMULATIONS.              
 WENT A LITTLE LOWER ON TEMPERATURES (FROM MAV GUIDANCE) ACROSS THE             
 BIG COUNTRY WHERE IT MAY TAKE A LITTLE LONGER FOR CLOUD COVER TO               
 COME IN TONIGHT.                                                               
 LONG TERM...                                                                   
 BEST SHORTWAVE/LIFT COMES IN WEDNESDAY TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES                   
 PROFILES INDICATE THIS TO BE MAINLY RAIN...THROUGH ITS POSSIBLE                
 SOME SLEET MAY OCCUR IN NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE BIG COUNTRY.                  
 RAIN CHANCES TAPER OFF THURSDAY MORNING. NEXT COLD FRONT COMES IN              
 ON FRIDAY...KEEPING TEMPERATURES ON THE COOL SIDE THIS WEEKEND.                
 MOISTURE TOO SHALLOW FOR ANY SIGNIFICANT RAIN THIS                             
 WEEKEND...THOUGH CANT RULE OUT A SPRINKLE OR TWO.                              
 ECMWF DIFFER IN HANDLING ANOTHER COLD FRONT NEXT WEEK. ECMWF HAS               
 COLD FRONT MONDAY...WHICH BUILDS IN VERY STRONGLY THROUGH                      
 TUESDAY. THE GFS PUSHES MOST OF THE COLD AIR TO THE EAST ON                    
 MONDAY...WITH ONLY A WEAKER COLD FRONT. IT THEN BRINGS WEST CENTRAL            
 TEXAS IN SOUTHERLY WARM ADVECTION TUESDAY...BEFORE A SECOND                    
 STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES IN TUESDAY NIGHT. WILL GO WITH THE COLDER              
 ECMWF SOLUTION FOR NOW...AS A LOT OF TIMES FRONT GETS CHANNELS                 
 AGAINST THE ROCKY MOUNTAINS.                                                   
 &&                                                                             
 .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                               
 ABILENE  31  48  37  48 /  20  30  50  20                                      
 SAN ANGELO  34  51  40  55 /  20  20  50  20                                   
 JUNCTION  37  49  44  60 /  20  20  50  20                                     
 &&                                                                             
 .SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                            
 NONE.                                                                          
 &&                                                                             
 $$                                                                             
 23/HUBER                                                                       
</pre> tx                                                                       

 AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                       
 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX                                        
 1257 PM CST TUE JAN 30 2007                                                    
 .DISCUSSION...SFC LOW OVER NWRN GULF CONTINUES TO MOVE AWAY WITH HIGH          
 PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE REGION. NRLY LLVL WINDS COMBINED WITH               
 SW WINDS ALOFT MAINTAINING MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES TODAY. SFC WINDS                
 WILL VEER TO THE SE THEN S WED AS A SFC LOW MOVES OUT OF THE SIERRA            
 MADRE ORIENTAL. THE APPROACHING LOW WILL COMBINE WITH INCREASED LLVL           
 MOISTURE PRODUCE MOSTLY CLOUDY TO CLOUDY SKIES...SCHC POPS...AREAS             
 OF FG AND PATCHY DZ. THIS PATTERN WILL CONTINUE UNTIL SFC LOW                  
 MOVES E ALLOWING DRIER AIR TO ADVECT INTO CWA ON NW WINDS. A                   
 SECONDARY FRONT PUSHES THROUGH SAT BEFORE STALLING ACROSS OR JUST              
 S OF CWA. THE PROXIMITY OF THE FRONT WILL COMBINE WITH WEAK                    
 COASTAL TROUGHING TO PRODUCE CHC POPS AND DZ THROUGH THE WEEKEND.              
 CONDITIONS IMPROVE EARLY NEXT WEEK AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS                 
 INTO THE REGION.                                                               
 &&                                                                             
 .MARINE...SURFACE WINDS AT BUOY020 HAVE TAKEN A JUMP IN THE LAST               
 HOUR REACHING TO NEAR 14 KTS WHICH IS LIKELY DUE TO THE FORMATION OF           
 THE MARINE SURFACE LOW OVER THE NORTHWESTERN GULF OF MEX. A BEST               
 GUESS FOR THE LOCATION OF THE SURFACE LOW UTILIZING SURFACE                    
 OBS...BUOY DATA AND THE LATEST RUC MSL FIELDS SEEMS TO BE ABOUT                
 HALFWAY BETWEEN BUOY019 AND BUOY002. THE CLOSE PROXIMITY OF THIS LOW           
 WILL LIKELY TIGHTEN THE PGF OFFSHORE TO PUSH WINDS TO NEAR SCA                 
 LEVELS TONIGHT. THIS LOOKS REASONABLE AND WILL ISSUE AN SCA FOR THE            
 OFFSHORE WATERS FOR THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS. AS THIS SURFACE           
 LOW MOVES FURTHER AWAY FROM THE LOWER TX COASTLINE...THE PGF WILL              
 RELAX SOME TOMORROW ALLOWING THE WINDS AND SEAS TO WEAKEN INTO                 
 WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY. HOWEVER...ANOTHER PUSH OF                  
 STRONGER NORTHERLY SURFACE WINDS WILL BEGIN LATE FRIDAY WITH STRONG            
 NORTHEAST WINDS CONTINUING INTO SAT AND SUN. THE PGF WILL WEAKEN               
 ONCE AGAIN ACROSS THE AREA ON MON INTO TUES AS THE CENTER OF THE               
 STRONG SURFACE HIGH OVER THE EASTERN U.S. LIFTS OUT TO THE EAST AND            
 SURFACE TROFFING ACROSS THE GULF OF MEX DIMINISHES.  GWW GUIDANCE              
 KEEPS 2 TO 3 METER SWELLS IN PLACE FOR THE OFFSHORE AREAS LATE SAT             
 AND SUN AND IN THE 1 TO 2 METER RANGE FOR MON AND TUES.  THIS LOOKS            
 REASONABLE AND IS PRETTY WELL REFLECTED IN THE CURRENT CWF WORDING.            
 &&                                                                             
 .AVIATION...VSBL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS PRETTY EXTENSIVE AND THICK            
 LOW LEVEL SC IN PLACE OVER THE REGION. ACCORDINGLY...LOW CEILINGS              
 WILL LIKELY HOLD ON THROUGHOUT THE DAY. FWC/MAV AND MET VSBY                   
 GUIDANCE ALL INDICATE THAT FOG WILL LIKELY REFORM LATER TONIGHT WITH           
 THE CONTINUED NORTHERLY SURFACE FLOW CONTINUING AND THE FAIRLY                 
 NARROW TEMP/DEWPOINT SPREADS PERSISTING INTO THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD.             
 IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN TONIGHT FOR ALL OF THE              
 LOWER RGV AIRPORTS.  INCREASED LOW LEVEL MIXING TOMORROW WILL                  
 GRADUALLY IMPROVE CEILINGS AND VSBYS ONCE AGAIN.  HOWEVER...THE                
 CEILINGS WILL LIKELY REMAIN SOMEWHAT LOW ONCE AGAIN ON WED.                    
 &&                                                                             
 .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                               
 BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL  55  67  59  71  57 /  20  20  20  20  10                  
 BROWNSVILLE          54  67  58  75  55 /  20  20  20  20  10                  
 HARLINGEN            52  67  57  76  52 /  20  20  20  20  10                  
 MCALLEN              53  64  56  75  53 /  20  20  20  20  10                  
 RIO GRANDE CITY      53  61  53  76  52 /  20  20  20  10  10                  
 SOUTH PADRE ISLAND   55  67  59  71  57 /  20  20  20  20  10                  
 &&                                                                             
 .BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                            
 SCA GMZ 150-155-170-175 AFTER 6 PM CST.                                        
 &&                                                                             
 $$                                                                             
 THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON OUR INTERNET WEB PAGE AT:                    
 HTTP://WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/BRO                                                    
 55/60/VEGA                                                                     
</pre> tx                                                                       

 AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                       
 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL                                        
 430 AM EST THU FEB 01 2007                                                     
 .SYNOPSIS...                                                                   
 07Z WATER VAPOR AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOWING A MUCH MORE ZONAL PATTERN             
 ALONG THE EAST COAST AND DOWN TO THE GULF COAST. THIS WILL BE VERY             
 SHORT LIVED AS ENERGY NOW DIVING THROUGH THE MID SECTION OF THE                
 COUNTY WILL CONTINUE TO DIG SOUTH AND EAST AND AMPLIFY THE PATTERN             
 THROUGH THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS.                                               
 AT THE SURFACE WE SEE HIGH PRESSURE BEGINNING TO SLIP OFF THE                  
 CAROLINA COAST AS LOW PRESSURE ORGANIZES IN THE WESTERN GULF OF                
 MEXICO. A WARM FRONT EXTENDING EAST FROM THIS LOW IS NOW MOVING UP             
 INTO THE CENTRAL AND NORTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. THIS LOW WILL BE             
 OUR WEATHER MAKER INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. AS THE LOW HAS                    
 ORGANIZED OVERNIGHT PLENTY OF CLOUDS HAVE SPILLED EASTWARD OVER THE            
 SOUTHEAST. AREAS OF PRECIPITATION HAVE ALSO BEEN ON THE MOVE TOWARD            
 THE EAST AND NORTHEAST WITH THE MAIN THRUST OF THE PRECIP UP ACROSS            
 MS/AL/AND NORTHERN GEORGIA SO FAR. ACROSS THESE AREAS THE COLD AIR             
 IS MORE DEEPLY ENTRENCHED AND AREAS OF SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN HAVE            
 BEEN OCCURRING.                                                                
 &&                                                                             
 .SHORT TERM...                                                                 
 (TODAY-SATURDAY) LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE              
 NORTH-CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO TODAY WITH AREAS OF RAIN AND ISOLATED             
 THUNDERSTORMS SPREADING EAST THROUGH THE DAY. THE EASTERN PORTION OF           
 THE CWA IS LIKELY TO BE INITIALLY FAIRLY DRY WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A           
 FEW WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND HAVE LOWERED POPS FOR THE FIRST               
 HALF OF THE DAY. AREAS OF RAIN WILL THEN OVERSPREAD THE ENTIRE AREA            
 THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS THE LOW AND BETTER DYNAMICS APPROACH. SO              
 FAR THE BEST ISENTROPIC LIFT HAS REMAINED TO OUR NORTH WHERE AREAS             
 OF RAIN/FREEZING RAIN/SLEET AND SNOW HAVE BEEN WIDESPREAD THIS                 
 OVERNIGHT. WITH THE FORECAST LOW TRACK...THE WARMFRONT IS NOT LIKELY           
 TO PENETRATE INLAND VERY RAPIDLY. HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MIDDLE TO           
 UPPER 50S ACROSS OUR NORTHERN ZONES WILL LIKELY NOT BE REALIZED                
 UNTIL LATE IN THE DAY WITH COOL CONDITIONS BEING EXPERIENCE IN THESE           
 AREAS NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT. SPC CONTINUES TO COVER PORTIONS OF              
 NORTH FLORIDA INTO FAR SOUTHERN GEORGIA WITH A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE           
 WEATHER THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. AT THIS TIME THINK ANY                
 SEVERE WEATHER LOOKS TO BE ISOLATED IN NATURE...BUT SHEAR PROFILES             
 DO INDICATE THAT ANY SURFACE BASED STORMS THAT GET GOING IN THE                
 WARM SECTOR WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE DAMAGING WINDS AND              
 ISOLATED TORNADOES. WILL CONTINUE TO WATCH THE SITUATION AND HAVE              
 HIGHLIGHTED THE SEVERE THREAT IN THE GRIDS AND HWO.                            
 COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT BRINGING A END TO THE               
 SEVERE THREAT FROM WEST TO EAST. FRONT AND QPF FIELDS SHOULD CLEAR             
 OUR AREA BY LATE MORNING ALTHOUGH CLOUDS MAY BE A BIT MORE                     
 STUBBORN... ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE FLORIDA BIG BEND. FURTHER WEST AND           
 NORTH WILL EXPECT AT LEAST SOME SUN BY THE AFTERNOON. HIGH                     
 TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL FRIDAY AFTERNOON            
 WITH MAINLY UPPER 50S TO MIDDLE 60S AS THERE IS NOT A SIGNIFICANT              
 COOL PUSH BEHIND THIS SYSTEM. HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUE TO BUILD EAST             
 ALONG THE GULF COAST FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. THIS IS WHERE THE             
 FORECAST BECOME A BIT TRICKY. GUIDANCE IS SHOWING THE FRONT TO OUR             
 SOUTH MAKING SOME HEADWAY BACK NORTH WITH A BAND OF ISENTROPIC LIFT            
 ON THE 295-300K SURFACES TRYING TO GET BACK UP INTO OUR AREA. THE              
 NAM IS MUCH MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH THIS FEATURE AND SPREADS WIDESPREAD           
 QPF BACK OVER THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT.            
 THE GFS IS SHOWING THE HIGH TO OUR WEST NOSING IN SIGNIFICANTLY MORE           
 AND HOLDING MUCH OF THIS LIFT AND MOISTURE INTO NORTH FLORIDA AND              
 THE NORTHEASTERN GULF. THE GFS HAS STRONG SUPPORT FROM BOTH THE                
 ECMWF AND UKMET ON THIS SCENARIO. DISCUSSIONS WITH SURROUNDING                 
 OFFICES AND HPC SHOW AN AGREEMENT THAT THIS MORE SUPPRESSED SOLUTION           
 IS THE BETTER WAY TO GO AND HAVE DRAWN MY POP GRIDS TO REPRESENT.              
 ONLY HAVE SLIGHT TO LOW END CHANCE POPS FOR SHOWERS OVER THE NORTH             
 WITH MID TO HIGH CHANCE POPS OVER NORTH FLORIDA SAT/SAT NIGHT. AS              
 WAS MENTIONED LAST NIGHT THIS IS A RATHER COOL AIRMASS TRYING TO               
 COME IN SATURDAY NIGHT AND A FEW FLAKES OF SNOW OR A FEW ICE PELLETS           
 CAN NOT BE RULED OUT OVER PORTIONS OF THE AREAS SAT NIGHT...BUT                
 STILL BELIEVE THE QPF WILL EXIT AHEAD OF THE REAL COOL AIR PUSH.               
 EITHER WAY ANY FROZEN PRECIP WOULD BE LIGHT AND NOT AMOUNT TO MUCH             
 OF ANYTHING...WILL CONTINUE TO WATCH.                                          
 .LONG TERM...                                                                  
 (SUNDAY-THURSDAY) ANY LINGERING SHOWERS WILL EXIT SOUTH OF THE AREA            
 EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. AS IT LOOKS NOW AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF DRY AND            
 COOL WEATHER WILL THEN BE WITH US INTO THE MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK.           
 BOTH GFS/ECMWF SHOWING HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION BY SUNDAY                 
 EVENING INTO MONDAY. THIS HIGH THEN BRIEFLY WEAKENS MONDAY NIGHT               
 BEFORE A STRONGER AND MORE DOMINANT HIGH BUILDS JUST NORTH OF THE              
 AREA FOR TUESDAY INTO THURSDAY. THIS HIGH IS LIKELY TO BRING WITH IT           
 PLENTY OF COOL AND DRY AIR ON NORTHERLY TO NORTHEASTERLY FLOW. AT              
 THIS TIME THE POSITION OF THE HIGH WOULD BE TO FAR NORTH TO ALLOW              
 ANY NIGHTS OF SIGNIFICANT RADIATIONAL COOLING...BUT THIS IS QUITE A            
 WAY INTO THE FUTURE FOR DETAILS.                                               
 &&                                                                             
 .AVIATION...                                                                   
 LOCAL RADARS AND AIRPORT OBSERVATIONS SHOW THAT SO FAR THE LOWER               
 ATMOSPHERE IS TOO DRY TO ALLOW THE LIGHT RAIN TO FALL TO THE                   
 SURFACE. WE EXPECT THESE CONDITIONS TO PERSIST THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT           
 AND EARLY MORNING HOURS. IT APPEARS THAT THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN              
 WILL BE THIS AFTERNOON...EARLY AFTERNOON FOR KDHN AND KPFN...AND MID           
 TO LATE AFTERNOON FOR KTLH...KABY...AND KVLD. OCCASIONAL THUNDER IS            
 EXPECTED...MAINLY AT KPFN...KTLH...AND KVLD...WHERE THE INSTABILITY            
 IS GREATER. VFR CEILINGS ARE FORECAST FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...BUT            
 THE CEILINGS WILL GRADUALLY LOWER TO MVFR (AROUND 2500 FT) THIS                
 MORNING AND REMAIN MVFR THROUGHOUT THE DAY. THE VISIBILITY WILL ALSO           
 BE REDUCED TO MVFR IN AREAS OF MODERATE RAIN...BUT LOCAL IFR                   
 CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE HEAVIER SHOWERS. WE THINK THE                   
 HEAVIEST RAIN WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH FROM WEST TO EAST THIS                   
 EVENING...FOLLOWED BY A LONGER PERIOD OF MOSTLY LIGHT RAIN UNTIL               
 ABOUT 06 UTC.                                                                  
 &&                                                                             
 .MARINE...                                                                     
 LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING IN THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO WILL MOVE                
 NORTHEAST TODAY PASSING NORTH OF THE COASTAL WATERS TONIGHT. WIND              
 AND SEAS HAVE INCREASED TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS AND WILL                
 CONTINUE ELEVATED THROUGH TONIGHT. WINDS INITIALLY OUT OF THE                  
 SOUTHEAST WILL COME AROUND TO SOUTHWEST BY THIS EVENING. NUMEROUS              
 SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THIS EVENING WITH A             
 FEW OF THE STORMS REACHING SEVERE LIMITS. COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE            
 WATERS TONIGHT WITH WINDS COMING AROUND TO THE NORTHWEST AND                   
 DECREASING BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS. HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS ACROSS             
 THE WATERS THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. THE GRADIENT WILL INCREASE AGAIN              
 FROM SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY WITH NEAR CAUTION LEVEL WINDS AND                 
 SEAS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE OFFSHORE LEGS.                                    
 &&                                                                             
 .FIRE WEATHER...                                                               
 A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED FRONT WILL                                
 MOVE EAST ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST U.S. TODAY AND TONIGHT...BRINGING               
 WITH IT WIDESPREAD RAIN TO THE REGION. THE RAIN WILL GRADUALLY END             
 FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY AS A                 
 COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTH INTO THE GULF. THIS FRONT WILL STALL                    
 ACROSS THE GULF THIS WEEKEND...BRINGING A BRIEF RETURN OF RAIN                 
 CHANCES UNTIL SUNDAY AFTERNOON...WHEN ANOTHER PUSH OF DRY AIR FORCES           
 THE CLOUDS AND SHOWERS FAR DOWN INTO THE GULF.                                 
 &&                                                                             
 .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                               
 TALLAHASSEE  65  54  64  45  53 /  90  90  20  20  50                          
 PANAMA CITY  65  54  62  45  55 /  90  90  10  20  50                          
 DOTHAN       59  48  60  39  53 /  90  80  10  10  30                          
 ALBANY       57  49  62  40  52 /  90  90  10  10  30                          
 VALDOSTA     64  54  65  45  54 /  80  90  20  20  40                          
 CROSS CITY   69  62  69  49  60 /  60  90  40  30  50                          
 &&                                                                             
 .TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                            
 AL...NONE.                                                                     
 GA...NONE.                                                                     
 FL...NONE.                                                                     
 GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT ALL ZONES THROUGH 7 AM EST /6 AM           
 CST/ FRIDAY MORNING.                                                           
 &&                                                                             
 $$                                                                             
 AVIATION...FOURNIER                                                            
 REST OF DISCUSSION...MROCZKA                                                   
</pre> fl                                                                       

 AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                       
 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL                                     
 330 AM CST THU FEB 1 2007                                                      
 .SYNOPSIS...                                                                   
 COLD FRONT WAS JUST ENTERING NWRN CWA EARLY THIS MORNING.  NARROW              
 BAND OF LIGHT...ACCUMULATING...SNOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT WAS STILL               
 OVER THE FAR EASTERN COUNTIES EARLY THIS MORNING WITH SCATTERED                
 FLURRIES EXTENDING BACK TO THE WEST.  LOW CLOUDS  HAVE SCATTERED               
 OUT CONSIDERABLY WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER AND NORTH OF I80 WITH           
 DEFINITE CLEARING LINE FROM KMCW TO JUST WEST OF KDSM AT 09Z. LITTLE           
 CHANGE WAS NOTED IN THE UPPER AIR PATTERN FROM THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS.          
  REGION REMAINS UNDER BROAD MID LEVEL TROF WITH SHARP H5 RIDGE                 
 ANCHORED JUST OFF THE WEST COAST.  S/W TROF ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD           
 FRONT OVER THE REGION THIS MORNING...EXTENDED FROM MN SW THROUGH WRN           
 NE AT 00Z.  ANOTHER POTENT S/W WAS LOCATED UPSTREAM OVER NRN                   
 SASKATCHEWAN AND ALBERTA.                                                      
 &&                                                                             
 .SHORT TERM...TODAY AND TONIGHT...                                             
 SHORT RANGE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH RAPID SUCCESSION OF              
 FRONTS MOVING THROUGH THE CWA TODAY AND TONIGHT.  FRONT CURRENTLY              
 CROSSING CWA SHOULD BE EAST OF THE AREA THIS MORNING WITH ASSOCIATED           
 S/W TROF REACHING THE MS RIVER BY MIDDAY.  WEAK SURFACE RIDGE TO               
 CROSS CWA THIS AFTERNOON...THEN RETURN FLOW DEVELOPS FOR BRIEF TIME            
 THIS EVENING INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.  NEXT S/W DROPS INTO WRN IA            
 BY 12Z FRIDAY WITH SURFACE COLD FRONT PROGGED TO BE JUST WEST OF THE           
 MS RIVER.  INITIAL CHALLENGE WILL CONCERN CLOUD TRENDS TODAY WITH              
 BACK OF EDGE OF LOW CLOUDS ALREADY INTO CENTRAL IA...WELL EAST OF              
 NAM/GFS SHOW BACK EDGE OF LOW LEVEL RH THIS MORNING.  BASED ON                 
 CURRENT TRENDS AND MORE REALISTIC 925 RH PROGS OFF THE RUC...HAVE              
 DECREASED SKY COVER OVER CWA CONSIDERABLY THIS MORNING...BEFORE HIGH           
 CLOUDS AHEAD OF NEXT S/W SWEEP OVER CWA THIS AFTERNOON.  MAX TEMPS             
 TODAY OFFER ANOTHER CHALLENGE WITH LESS CLOUDS THAN MOS SHOWS                  
 FAVORING WARMER TEMPS.  HOWEVER LIGHT WINDS IN SURFACE RIDGE AND               
 FRESH DUSTING OF NEW SNOW ALONG WITH LOW LEVEL CAA MOST OF THE DAY             
 POINTING TO COLDER TEMPS SHOULD OFFSET ANY ADDITIONAL SUN.  KEPT MAX           
 TEMPS AT OR JUST BELOW COLDER MET GUIDANCE.   NEXT S/W PROGGED TO              
 MOVE THROUGH CWA BY FRIDAY.  QVECTOR CONVERGENCE SUGGESTS BEST                 
 SYNOPTIC FORCING AHEAD OF TROF WILL STAY TO OUR NORTH...SO KEPT LOW            
 CHANCE POPS GOING FOR TONIGHT.  SURFACE FRONT SHOULD BE ENTERING               
 NORTHWEST CWA AFTER 09Z WITH STRONG NW WINDS KICKING RIGHT AFTER               
 FROPA. WITH HALF INCH TO INCH OF FLUFF THAT FELL WEDNESDAY EVENING             
 ...FELT THAT BLSN CURRENTLY IN GRIDS WAS WORTH KEEPING.     ..DLF..            
 .LONGER TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY...A RATHER VIGOROUS               
 VORT COMPLEX NOW SEEN ON W/V IMAGERY WEST OF HUDSON BAY...IS STILL             
 PROGGED BY LATEST SUITE OF SHORT RANGE MODEL RUNS TO ROTATE DOWN               
 ACRS THE AREA IN STEEPENING CYCLONIC UPPER FLOW ON FRI AS POLAR                
 VORTEX BECOMES ENTRENCHED OVER WESTERN ONTARIO. LOW TO MID LEVEL               
 SATURATION FOR MUCH OF ANYTHING TO GET WRUNG OUT BY THE INCOMING               
 LIFT OTHER THAN SOME FLURRIES STILL AT QUESTION...BUT LATEST FCST              
 PROFILES/SOUNDINGS SHOW ENOUGH FOR MORE OF A LIGHT SNOW AS OPPOSED             
 TO SPORADIC FLURRIES THROUGH AT LEAST MIDDAY ACRS THE NORTHEAST 2/3`S          
 OF THE FCST AREA. WITH EXPECTED MOMENTUM WIND SURGE/ABOVE THAT                 
 ADVERTISED BY THE MODELS/ BEHIND FROPA AS ARCTIC FRONT PLOWS ITS WAY           
 THRU AND EAST OF THE AREA FRI MORNING...SOME BLOWING OF THE POWDER/            
 THAT COULD ACCUMULATE FROM .5 TO AN INCH BY LATE FRI MORNING/ ACRS             
 ROADS AND OPEN FIELDS WILL BE LIKELY AND WILL INCLUDE WORDING FOR              
 THIS IN THE GRIDS. AS FOR TEMPS...MAYBE A FEW DEGREES RECOVER FROM             
 12Z VALUES DURING LATE FRI MORNING AND MIDDAY...BUT EXPECT A THERMAL           
 DROP OFF AS THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES AS YET ANOTHER -20 C AND COLDER           
 H85 MB COLD POOL SEEPS RIGHT OVER THE FCST AREA. WIND CHILLS DURING            
 THE DAY DIP INTO THE MID TO UPPER TEENS BELOW ZERO FOR AWHILE IN THE           
 NORTHWESTERN CWA...BUT DON/T QUITE REACH ADVISORY CRITERIA. THAT WILL          
 CHANGE BY FRI NIGHT AS WINDS AND STOUT CAA MAINTAIN. A WIND CHILL              
 ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED LATER FRI NIGHT AND INTO SAT FOR MUCH           
 OF THE DVN CWA.                                                                
 AS FOR ANOTHER CLIPPER SKIRTING DOWN ACRS THE AREA FRI NIGHT...THE             
 GFS IS AGAIN THE MOST BULLISH WITH LIFT AND SATURATION AND LOOKS               
 OVERDONE...BUT WILL KEEP CHC POPS FOR LIGHT SNOW AFTER MIDNIGHT AND            
 INTO EARLY SAT MORNING. OTHERWISE OCCASIONAL FLURRIES WILL ACCOMPANY           
 AND CLOUD COVER THAT SWEEPS ON THRU IN STEEP NORTHWEST FLOW WITH ANY           
 SATURATION EASILY IN THE -10 C OR COLDER RANGE. 3RD NIGHT IN A ROW             
 WHERE LATEST RUN AND ACCEPTED/FAVORED MEDIUM RANGE MODEL RUNS                  
 ADVERTISE MERIDIONAL FETCH FROM NORTHWEST OF THE HUDSON BAY REGION-            
 ARCTIC BRINGING NEAR -30 C H85 COLD POOL DOWN NEAR THE FCST AREA SAT           
 NIGHT INTO SUN. WILL CONTINUE TO MAKE MINOR TWEAKS/DOWN TRENDS IN              
 BOTH HIGHS AND LOWS OVER THE WEEKEND...WITH THE CONTINUING THOUGHT OF          
 AT LEAST SOME -20 F VALUES BEING REACHED IN PORTIONS OF THE FCST AREA          
 EITHER SUNDAY MORNING OR MONDAY LOOKING ON TARGET. ONLY WEAKENING SFC          
 WINDS WITH SOME LLVL RIDGING MAKING ITS WAY ACRS THE AREA LATER SAT            
 NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MAY PRECLUDE A WIND CHILL WARNING FOR THAT TIME              
 PERIOD...BUT STILL NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. NO CHANGES INTO EARLY              
 NEXT WEEK FOR NOW.     ..12..                                                  
 &&                                                                             
 .DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                            
 IA...NONE.                                                                     
 IL...NONE.                                                                     
 MO...NONE.                                                                     
 &&                                                                             
 $$                                                                             
 DLF/12                                                                         
</pre> ia                                                                       

 AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                       
 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY                                         
 1210 AM EST THU FEB 01 2007                                                    
 .AVIATION DISCUSSION (06Z) TAFS...                                             
 CEILINGS WILL LOWER TO MVFR CONDITIONS BY 10Z ACROSS ALL OF THE TAF            
 SITES AS AN AREA OF LIGHT SNOW ARRIVES. LIGHT SNOW...WITH                      
 VISIBILITIES GENERALLY REMAINING AROUND 2SM OR ABOVE WILL BEGIN AT             
 BWG AFTER 6Z...SDF FROM 08-10Z AND AT LEX AND BWG AROUND 09-11Z.               
 CEILINGS IN THE SNOW WILL FALL TO 2-3 THOUSAND FEET. SURFACE WINDS             
 WILL REMAIN LIGHT OVERNIGHT WITH 20 KT SW FLOW AT AROUND 2000 FEET.            
 LIGHT SNOW WILL CHANGE TO FLURRIES BY MID MORNING WITH ACCUMULATIONS           
 REMAINING AT OR BELOW 1 INCH...BUT CEILINGS WILL REMAIN MVFR                   
 THROUGHOUT TODAY. ANOTHER ROUND OF LIGHT SNOW IS EXPECTED AFTER 00Z            
 FRIDAY. JSD                                                                    
 &&                                                                             
 .EVENING UPDATE (WEDS EVENING 9 PM)                                            
 LATEST IR SATELLITE LOOP IS SHOWING SOME ENHANCEMENT IN THE CLOUD              
 ELEMENTS OVER CENTRAL AND NORTHERN AR AND NRN AL ...LOOKING AT THE             
 RADAR TRENDS THAT AREA...THEY ARE SHOWING SOME INCREASE IN COVERAGE            
 TOO. BOTH THE CLOUDS AND PCPN ARE MOVING TO THE NORTHEAST TOWARDS              
 SRN KY.                                                                        
 A PRELIMINARY LOOK AT THE NEW 00Z NAM MODEL DATA IS NOT AS PROMISING           
 FOR SNOWFALL. THE AIR ALOFT WAS INITIALLY QUITE DRY TODAY AND IF               
 THE AIR DOESN`T BECOME SUFFICIENTLY SATURATED IN THE LOWER LEVELS...           
 ANY PRECIP THAT DOES FALL WILL EVAPORATE BEFORE REACHING THE GROUND.           
 THE 18Z GFS DID SHOW SUFFICIENT SATURATION AND ENOUGH SYNOPTIC LIFT            
 FOR AN INCH OR TWO OF SNOWFALL ESPECIALLY DURING THE 10Z-18Z TIME              
 FRAME ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN KENTUCKY. THIS MATCHES WELL WITH             
 OUR SNOW ADVISORY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE FA.                       
 THE LATEST RUC40 RH TRENDS SHOW A MAJOR INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL RH               
 SW TO NE ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION OVERNIGHT...THIS TOO WUD                    
 SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL FOR MEASURABLE SNOW LATER TONIGHT.                       
 BEFORE MAKING ANY MAJOR CHANGES...WE NEED TO LOOK AT THE FULL SUITE            
 OF 00Z MODEL RUNS...PLUS CHECK WITH THE NEXT HPC SNOW FCSTS AND                
 CONSIDER THEIR ANALYSIS TOO.                                                   
 COORDINATED WITH JKL AND THEY WERE PLANNING TO LEAVE THEIR ADVISORY            
 INTACT.                                                                        
 AT THIS TIME WE ARE NOT MAKING ANY CHANGES IN THE CURRENT FCST. --21           
 ....PREVIOUS FCST DISCUSSIONS FOR TODAY ARE BELOW:...                          
 .SHORT TERM...                                                                 
 (TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)...                                            
 ...SNOW ADVISORY ACROSS SOUTHERN KY AND SOUTHERN BLUEGRASS...                  
 SHORT-TERM FORECAST REVOLVES AROUND SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEMS AND SNOW           
 ACCUMULATION CHANCES WITH EACH.                                                
 TONIGHT-MIDDAY THURS...                                                        
 HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST TONIGHT...AS AN               
 INVERTED TROUGH OVER THE GULF MOVES FROM TEXAS TOWARD THE CAROLINAS.           
 MOISTURE IS NOT TOO IMPRESSIVE WITH THIS SYSTEM...HOWEVER THE                  
 DYNAMICS ARE STRONG. SOUTHERN JET OF ROUGHLY 150 KTS OR SO WILL BE             
 OVERHEAD...WITH THE CWA UNDER THE LEFT-EXIT REGION AFTER MIDNIGHT.             
 AMPLE LIFT WILL THUS HELP SNOW DEVELOP AFTER MIDNIGHT TOWARD                   
 MORNING. AREA SOUNDINGS INDICATE THE BEST CHANCE OF SNOW WILL BE               
 BETWEEN 10-17Z. SOME HEAVIER SNOW MAY MIX IN AT TIMES GIVEN UPSTREAM           
 REPORTS AND PROGGED -EPV ALOFT CO-LOCATED WITH MAX OMEGAS. BUT GIVEN           
 THE LACK OF MOISTURE AND SPEED OF SYSTEM...WILL NOT GET CARRIED AWAY           
 WITH SNOW AMOUNTS. THUS...WILL ISSUE A SNOW ADVSY FROM 1-2 INCHES              
 POSSIBLE MAINLY SE OF A LINE FROM MORGANTOWN TO LEBANON. MAY BE A              
 BIT TOO FAR NORTH WITH THE ADVY GIVEN THE NAM 18Z RUN...BUT 12Z                
 GFS/NAM AND HPC INDICATE FAR SRN KY COULD GET THESE ACCUMULATING               
 SNOWS. THE BIGGER PROBLEM WILL BE TIMING NOT THE ACTUAL ACCUMS. GIVEN          
 TIME OF DAY (NEAR MORNING COMMUTE TIME) FELT IT WAS WORTH BUMPING              
 UP THE SPS TO AN ADVSY. WILL KEEP THE HIGHER SNOW AMOUNTS ACROSS               
 THE FAR SERN CWA.                                                              
 ELSEWHERE...WILL CONTINUE SPS FOR AROUND AN INCH OF ACCUMULATION.              
 FEEL THAT THE THREAT IS MINIMIZED ACROSS CENTRAL KY...HOWEVER A                
 BETTER CHANCE MAY EXIST NEAR THE OHIO RIVER WITH THE DEFORMATION               
 ZONE DEVELOPING FROM KC TO WICHITA. THIS SHOULD ALIGN SOMEWHERE                
 ACROSS OUR NRN CWA...POSSIBLY NEAR THE KY/IN BORDER. SNOWFALL                  
 AMOUNTS WITHIN THE SPS AREA WILL BE HIGHER IN THE DEFORMATION                  
 ZONE...BUT IT IS STILL EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT SNOW ONLY.                         
 MAIN PRECIP WILL END BY MIDDAY (ADVY ENDS AT 18Z)...THOUGH LOW                 
 CLOUDS MAY CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. WITH THIS...EVEN A FEW              
 LIGHT SHOWERS/FLURRIES MAY CONTINUE INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. SFC              
 TEMPS MAY INCREASE ENOUGH ACROSS THE SOUTH WHERE A CHANGEOVER TO               
 LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE MAY OCCUR. HAVE A RAIN/SNOW MIX ACROSS THE                  
 SOUTH FOR NOW.                                                                 
 MIDDAY THURS-OVERNIGHT THURS...                                                
 SECOND WAVE IN SOUTHERN STREAM WILL QUICKLY MOVE TOWARD THE EAST               
 COAST RIGHT ON THE HEELS OF THE FIRST SYSTEM. THIS SYSTEM IS MORE OF           
 A CLOSED SFC LOW AS OPPOSED TO A SFC TROUGH...AND IS COMBINED WITH             
 EVEN STRONGER DYNAMICS ALOFT. HOWEVER MOISTURE IS EVEN MORE                    
 LACKING...BUT THE DYNAMICS ARE THERE FOR YET ANOTHER POSSIBLE                  
 ADVSY SITUATION THRS NIGHT-FRI MORN. WILL LOOK MORE AT IT TONIGHT              
 AND TOMORROW MORNING...BUT WILL HIT IT HARD IN THE HWO. THIS                   
 LATTER SYSTEM WOULD BE MORE OF A CWA-WIDE EVENT TOO. WILL CONTINUE             
 WITH ONE-INCH ACCUMS FOR NOW.                                                  
 AS FAR AS TEMPS GO THROUGH THE PERIOD...WILL ONLY DROP ABOUT 5                 
 DEGREES TONIGHT BEFORE CLOUDS INCREASE OVERNIGHT AND KEEP OUR TEMPS            
 STEADY. TOMORROW...WILL LIKELY HEAT UP...ESPECIALLY IN THE                     
 AFTERNOON. HOWEVER WILL UNDERCUT RUC13/GFS AS I FEEL THESE ARE                 
 RUNNING A BIT TOO HIGH. LOW TO MID 30S LOOK LIKELY FOR HIGHS THURS.            
 AL                                                                             
 .LONG TERM (FRI THRU WED)...                                                   
 FRI THRU SAT NGT...                                                            
 SHRTWV TROF WILL BE DROPPING DOWN INTO THE UPR MS VLY/WRN GREAT                
 LAKES AT THE START OF THE PERIOD WITH MORE ENERGY ROUNDING THE BASE            
 OF THE UPR LEVEL BROAD TROF TOWARD THE LOWER MS VLY. THIS ELONGATED            
 AXIS OF HIER VORTICITY BECOMES INCREASINGLY SHEARED AS IT MOVES THRU           
 OUR FA FRI WITH AFOREMENTIONED SHRTWV MOVG WELL TO OUR NORTH...ACRS            
 THE GREAT LAKES. AFTERWARD...WE REMAIN IN A BROAD TROF THRU THE END            
 OF THE PERIOD WITH ANOTHER IMPLSE APPROACHING OUR FA SAT NIGHT.                
 ASSOCIATED CDFNT WILL MOVE THRU FRI...WITH A RIDGE OF HI PRES IN ITS           
 WAKE FOR FRI NIGHT AND MUCH OF SAT. WILL CONTINUE CHC POPS FOR LIGHT           
 SNOW PRECEDING FRONT...MAINLY IN THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY.                    
 A REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR...ASSOCIATED WITH AFOREMENTIONED                
 IMPULSE...WILL LIKELY MOVE THRU OUR FA SAT NIGHT. WILL DOWNPLAY                
 THE NAM/WRF DEEPER MOISTURE PRECEDING AND WITH FRONT AND CONT A                
 PARTLY CLOUDY FCST...CLOSER TO THE GFS.                                        
 11                                                                             
 SUN THRU WED...                                                                
 VERY COLD AND MAINLY DRY THRU THIS PERIOD.                                     
 BROAD UPR LEVEL TROF WILL RESIDE ACRS THE OH VLY THRU LATE MON WITH            
 AXIS SHIFTING INTO NEW ENGLAND TUE AND OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST               
 WED. AFTER AXIS PASSAGE MON...OUR REGION WILL BE IN COLD NW FLO                
 THRU THE END OF THE PERIOD. 00Z MEDIUM RANGE MODELS AND 12Z GFS                
 ARE SIMILAR WITH SHOWING A FAST MOVG CLIPPER SYS/WEAK SFC LO                   
 MOVING INTO THE LOWER OH VLY SUN NGT AND EXITING MON MORNING. THIS             
 APPEARS TO BE OUR BEST CHC FOR A MEASURABLE SNOW DURING THIS                   
 PERIOD WITH POSSIBLY A 1 TO 3 INCH DRY FLUFFY SNOW ACRS OUR                    
 FORECAST AREA(FA)...MOSTLY OVER OUR NRN/ERN FA. TEMPS WILL BE                  
 UNSEASONALLY COLD...ESPECIALLY AFTER CLIPPER PASSAGE MON WITH                  
 SINGLE DIGIT READINGS MON AND TUE NGT AS ARCTIC HI PRES BUILDS                 
 INTO AND OVER THE LOWER OH VLY.                                                
 AFTER POPULATING WITH HPC GRIDS FOR TUE AND WED...WILL MAKE THE                
 FOLLOWING CHGS TO TEMP GRIDS. WILL RAISE SUN NGT MINS CONSIDERABLY             
 TO ACCOUNT FOR INCREASING CLOUDS/A BRIEF PERIOD OF WARM ADVECTION              
 AHEAD OF CLIPPER. WILL RAISE MAXS MON A FEW DEGREES CLOSER TO                  
 ENSEMBLE MEANS AND HPC AND TO AGREE BETTER WITH OUR NEIGHBORS.                 
 IF WE GET AN INCH OR TWO OF SNOW COVER BEFORE THIS PERIOD AND ON SUN           
 NGT AS WELL...THESE TEMPS WILL NEED TO BE ADJUSTED DOWN...IN OTHER             
 WORDS...BELOW ZERO FOR MINS BEGINNING MON NGT.                                 
 DK                                                                             
 &&                                                                             
 .LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                            
 KY...SNOW ADVISORY FROM 5 AM EST /4 AM CST/ TO 1 PM EST /12 PM CST/            
      THURSDAY FOR KYZ062>066-070>078-081-082.                                  
 IN...NONE.                                                                     
 &&                                                                             
 $$                                                                             
</pre> ky                                                                       

 AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                       
 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI                                    
 1152 PM EST WED JAN 31 2007                                                    
 .AVIATION...                                                                   
 EXAMINATION OF AVAILABLE 00Z MODEL RUNS REVEALS GOOD CONTINUITY                
 WITH THE DAYTIME/18Z RUNS.                                                     
 MID AND HIGH CLOUDS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL FOR MOST OF THE                        
 NIGHT...WITH THE MID CLOUDS CURRENTLY THICKENING/LOWERING WITH                 
 TIME IN AGREEMENT WITH MODEL SOUNDINGS AND MOISTURE TIME                       
 SECTIONS. BY 09Z AT KMBS AND EARLY FORENOON AT THE OTHER TAF                   
 SITES...EXPECT LOWERING CEILINGS INTO MVFR AS DEARTH OF LOW LEVEL              
 MOISTURE ENDS...WITH THE NORTH AIDED BY TRAJECTORY OFF OF LAKE                 
 MICHIGAN. NEARLY ADIABATIC LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES DEVELOPING                    
 THURSDAY AS COLD TEMPERATURES ALOFT PROMOTE EXPECTED DIURNAL BOOST             
 FOR SNOW SHOWERS. TAFS WILL CONTINUE A PROB30 GROUP BETWEEN 17Z TO             
 21Z OR 18Z TO 22Z FOR MVFR VISIBILITIES IN SNOW SHOWERS. NOT                   
 ENOUGH CONFIDENCE IN POTENTIAL OVERNIGHT TO MENTION ANY VISIBILITY             
 RESTRICTING SNOWFALL...AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE SPARSE.                   
 MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO INDICATE LOTS OF LOW LEVEL                
 MOISTURE/CLOUDS THURSDAY EVENING...THOUGH WITH LOSS OF DIURNAL                 
 INFLUENCES WILL NOT MENTION ANY VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS.                       
 &&                                                                             
 .PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 434 PM EST WED JAN 31 2007                           
 SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND THURSDAY                                              
 OVERNIGHT LOWS LIKELY TO OCCUR SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET...ESPECIALLY               
 ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA WHERE CURRENT TEMPS REMAIN            
 IN THE TEENS...15 AT ADRIAN. THUS...LOWEST OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE                  
 EXPECTED IN THAT AREA. THEN TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO LEVEL OFF AND                
 POSSIBLY CLIMB A LITTLE OVERNIGHT UNDER A WEAK WARM AIR ADVECTION              
 REGIME. THE POTENTIAL FOR SCATTERED LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ARRIVES                 
 AFTER MIDNIGHT AND WILL EXIST THROUGH THURSDAY. LIMITED MOISTURE               
 AND A WEAKENING SYSTEM WILL KEEP SNOW SHOWERS ON THE LIGHT SIDE                
 WITH LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATION EXPECTED. THE SAGINAW VALLEY STANDS             
 TO SEE THE BEST ACTIVITY AS THAT IS THE FAVORED AREA FOR LAKE LAKE             
 ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS WITHIN SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW REGIME.                        
 LATEST RUC ANALYSIS/SATELLITE DATA SUPPORTS THE MODELS CONSISTENT              
 FORECAST OF THE SHORT WAVE SHEARING OUT WITHIN CONFLUENT FLOW ALOFT            
 OVER THE GREAT LAKES EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. UPPER                             
 DIVERGENCE...WITHIN RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF DEPARTING JET STREAK...           
 WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF EXTRA LIFT OVERNIGHT...MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTH           
 HALF OF THE CWA. MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT THE VERY DRY 900 TO             
 700 MB COLUMN OF AIR WILL THEN MOISTEN UP CONSIDERABLY DURING THE              
 EARLY MORNING HOURS. BUT WITH VERY LITTLE INSTABILITY AND LACK OF              
 LOW LEVEL SUPPORT...ANY SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD REMAIN ON THE TAME                 
 SIDE.                                                                          
 BY THE TIME BETTER LOW LEVEL SUPPORT ARRIVES ON THURSDAY...THE MID             
 AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO STRIP AWAY AS THE UPPER                 
 SUPPORT BECOMES SHEARED OUT. HOWEVER WITH INVERSION HEIGHTS AROUND             
 800 MB ON THURSDAY NORTH OF DETROIT...LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS CANNOT            
 BE RULED OUT.                                                                  
 LONG TERM...                                                                   
 THE PLAINS WAVE WILL HAVE SHEARED TO OUR EAST BY THURSDAY NIGHT                
 LEAVING ONLY A CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES UNTIL THE              
 NEXT SYSTEM ARRIVES FROM CENTRAL CANADA ON FRIDAY. THIS FEATURE                
 LOOKS TO BE HANDLED WELL JUDGING FROM SATELLITE IMAGERY TODAY BUT IT           
 IS HARD TO GET EXCITED ABOUT THE PROSPECTS FOR SNOW AS IT MOVES                
 THROUGH OUR AREA FRIDAY AFTERNOON. MID LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE AT A             
 PREMIUM AS THE WAVE WILL BE CUT OFF FROM BOTH GULF AND PACIFIC                 
 MOISTURE SOURCES. HOWEVER, A BOOST FROM LAKE MICHIGAN LOOKS                    
 REASONABLE AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH LOWER MICHIGAN FRIDAY               
 AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THIS IS WORTH CHANCE/SCATTERED POPS FOR SNOW            
 SHOWERS.                                                                       
 OUR FIRST SURGE OF ARCTIC AIR WILL ARRIVE BEHIND THIS SYSTEM FRIDAY            
 NIGHT. THE 12Z MODELS ALL SHOW 850 MB TEMPS DROPPING TO AROUND -20C            
 BY SUNRISE SATURDAY MORNING. A SW COMPONENT TO THE WIND WILL                   
 INITIALLY HELP WITH SINGLE DIGIT LOW TEMPERATURES, DESPITE SOME                
 CLOUD COVER, AS COLDER SURFACE AIR FLOWS AROUND THE SOUTH END OF               
 LAKE MICHIGAN AND INTO OUR AREA. HOWEVER, THIS SAME SW FLOW WILL               
 STRENGTHEN AND ADVECT SOMEWHAT WARMER AIR INTO THE REGION AS THE               
 SURFACE HIGH DRIFTS EAST AND AHEAD OF THE NEXT WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE            
 SCHEDULED TO ARRIVE ON SATURDAY. IN THIS REGARD, GUIDANCE                      
 TEMPERATURES CALLING FOR HIGHS IN THE TEENS LOOK OK BUT THESE                  
 READINGS WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY A 10 TO 20 MPH WIND AND WIND CHILLS            
 NEAR 10 BELOW ZERO.                                                            
 THERE ARE SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES IN THE 12Z MODELS ON THE HANDLING            
 OF THE SATURDAY WAVE. PREFER THE FASTER SOLUTIONS, OF WHICH THE GFS            
 IS ONE, AS RENEWED HEIGHT FALLS GET UNDERWAY IN CENTRAL CANADA AND             
 ANCHOR THE POLAR VORTEX OVER NORTHERN ONTARIO. THIS SYSTEM WILL                
 BRING OUR BEST CHANCE OF SNOW DURING THE WEEKEND AND REPLENISH THE             
 ARCTIC AIR MASS SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. THIS WILL BE THE MOST               
 BRUTAL PORTION OF THE COLD OUTBREAK WHEN FACTORING IN BOTH                     
 TEMPERATURE AND WIND TAKING WIND CHILL TO AROUND -20F. THE GFS                 
 FORECASTS 850 MB TEMPS TO DROP DOWN NEAR -28C WHICH CORRESPONDS TO             
 DAYTIME TEMPERATURES NO BETTER THAN THE SINGLE DIGITS ON SUNDAY. IN            
 FACT, DAYTIME TEMPERATURES TODAY IN REGIONS OF NORTHERN CANADA SHOW            
 A FEW READINGS STILL BELOW ZERO WITH SIMILAR 850 MB TEMPERATURES. IN           
 ADDITION, THERE WILL LIKELY BE CONSIDERABLY MORE OF A SURFACE                  
 PRESSURE TROUGH IN THE LEE OF LAKE MICHIGAN WHICH WILL DIRECT A SW             
 FLOW OF LESS MODIFIED AIR INTO SE MICHIGAN. THE LAST TIME METRO                
 DETROIT HAD AT LEAST TWO CONSECUTIVE DAYS OF SINGLE DIGIT HIGH                 
 TEMPERATURES WAS IN JANUARY 1994.                                              
 VERY LITTLE TEMPERATURE MODERATION IS EXPECTED ON MONDAY AS THE CORE           
 OF THE POLAR VORTEX MOVES OVER THE GREAT LAKES. THE GLOBAL MODELS DO           
 SHOW THE VORTEX MOVING EAST BY TUESDAY BUT DEEP NW FLOW WILL                   
 CONTINUE THE SUPPLY OF ARCTIC AIR THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.             
 SOME MODERATION IS POSSIBLE ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS THE WIND               
 BACKS TOWARD THE WEST AND NORTHWEST, PREVENTING THE LESS MODIFIED              
 AIR FROM MOVING INTO THE REGION.                                               
 &&                                                                             
 .DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                            
 MI...NONE.                                                                     
 LAKE HURON...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...LHZ421...NEARSHORE WATERS FROM             
              PORT AUSTIN TO PORT HURON...UNTIL 3 PM THURSDAY.                  
              SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS...LHZ422...                        
              UNTIL 10 AM THURSDAY.                                             
 LAKE ST CLAIR...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS...UNTIL 10 AM                   
                 THURSDAY.                                                      
 MI WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS...                     
 &&                                                                             
 $$                                                                             
 AVIATION...DWD                                                                 
 SHORT TERM...JDS                                                               
 LONG TERM....BT                                                                
 YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE           
 AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).                                   
</pre> mi                                                                       

 AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                       
 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX                                         
 416 AM CST THU FEB 1 2007                                                      
 .DISCUSSION...                                                                 
 SHORTWAVE ENERGY IS ENTERING WEST TEXAS THIS MORNING...AND MID LEVEL           
 SHEAR AXIS ORIENTATION IS ALIGNED WELL WITH PRECIP SHIELD. RAIN                
 EXTENDS FROM NEAR DFW TO SOUTH OF SJT AT 10Z. SURFACE TEMPS ALONG              
 THE RED RIVER ARE THE MAIN SHORT TERM FOCUS AS PRECIP MOVES INTO THE           
 AREA. RUC ANALYSIS OF 850MB TEMPS KEEPS THE PUSH OF BELOW 0C TEMPS             
 BEHIND THE PROGRESSION OF PRECIPITATION. THIS ANALYSIS SEEMS TO FIT            
 WELL WITH THE PUSH OF THE COLD AIR AT THE SURFACE /PER SFC OBS/                
 WHICH IS BEST OVER FAR WESTERN OK AND THE TX PANHANDLE. FOR                    
 NOW...WILL KEEP PRECIP LIQUID IN THE ZONES TODAY...BUT WILL                    
 REEVALUATE POST 12Z SOUNDINGS AND INCOMING OBS...AND UPDATE IF                 
 NEEDED.                                                                        
 BOTH THE GFS AND NAM MAINTAIN A SATURATED THERMAL PROFILE BELOW                
 FREEZING AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT ALONG THE RED RIVER. WE WILL                   
 INCREASE POPS INTO THE CHC CATEGORY FOR OUR NORTHERN TIER OF ZONES             
 AND EXPAND SLT CHC SOUTHWARD TO JUST NORTH OF THE METROPLEX. LITTLE            
 SNOW ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED...BUT WILL LET DAYSHIFT REEVALUATE AND           
 DETERMINE THE NEED FOR HEADLINES. WE EXPECT THE COLUMN TO QUICKLY              
 DRY FROM THE TOP DOWN...RESULTING IN JUST A SLT CHC FOR FLURRIES               
 AFTER SUNRISE ON FRIDAY OVER OUR NORTHERN ZONES. ATTM...PROFILES               
 APPEAR TOO DRY ON SAT FOR ANY PRECIP AND HAVE REMOVED ISOLATED                 
 FLURRIES FROM THE GRIDS.                                                       
 PATTERN WISE...AMPLIFIED RIDGE MOVING ONTO THE PACIFIC COAST AND               
 STRONG HUDSON BAY LOW WILL SET THE STAGE FOR SEVERAL SHOTS OF COLD             
 AIR TO DROP DOWN INTO THE CENTRAL CONUS. SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL                
 SETTLE INTO NORTH TX ON FRIDAY. THE AREA CAN EXPECT BELOW NORMAL               
 TEMPS...RANGING FROM THE MID 30S TO THE LOWER 50S. AS THE UPPER                
 RIDGE AND TROUGH BOTH TRANSLATE A BIT FARTHER EAST...COLD HIGH                 
 PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL SHOOT NORTHEAST OF OUR AREA...RESULTING IN               
 MINIMAL INFLUENCE OVER OUR NORTHEASTERN ZONES. SOME RETURN FLOW AND            
 BUILDING HEIGHTS SHOULD SET UP A SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST GRADIENT ON            
 TEMPS SUN THROUGH TUES. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE                    
 EXTENDED. JUST BEYOND THE SCOPE OF THIS FORECAST...ECMWF AND UKMET             
 SUGGEST A STRONG SURFACE HIGH WILL PLUNGE INTO THE CENTRAL CONUS               
 LATE NEXT WEEK AND PUSH ANOTHER COLD FRONT INTO NORTH TX.                      
 SCHULTZ                                                                        
 &&                                                                             
 .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                               
 DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  42  30  38  23  41 /  80  10  10  10  10                 
 WACO, TX              51  36  45  27  47 /  90  10  10  10  10                 
 PARIS, TX             40  27  35  22  39 / 100  30  10  10  10                 
 DENTON, TX            40  29  36  23  40 /  80  20  10  10  10                 
 MCKINNEY, TX          40  29  35  23  39 / 100  20  10  10  10                 
 DALLAS, TX            41  31  38  24  42 /  90  10  10  10  10                 
 TERRELL, TX           43  31  39  23  43 / 100  10  10  10  10                 
 CORSICANA, TX         48  33  40  24  44 /  90  10  10  10  10                 
 TEMPLE, TX            53  37  50  29  48 /  90  10  10  10  10                 
 &&                                                                             
 .FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                            
 NONE.                                                                          
 &&                                                                             
 $$                                                                             
 21/05/92                                                                       
</pre> tx                                                                       

 AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                       
 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL                                          
 1025 AM EST THU FEB 1 2007                                                     
 ...WARM AND WINDY TODAY WITH GUSTS NEAR GALE FORCE POSSIBLE                    
     OVER THE OFFSHORE ATLANTIC WATERS TONIGHT...                               
 ...FAST-MOVING SHOWERS AND POTENTIALLY STRONG STORMS MOVING                    
    THROUGH TONIGHT...                                                          
 .DISCUSSION...                                                                 
 CURRENT...STATE 88D MOSAIC SHOWS THAT THE FEW SPRINKLES AROUND                 
 EARLIER THIS MORNING HAVE DISSIPATED. AS EXPECTED BRISK SRLY FLOW              
 HAS DEVELOPED OVER THE CWA THIS MORNING WITH WINDS ALREADY UP TO               
 15G25MPH AT MOST METAR SITES. VIS IMAGERY SHOWS BKN LOW-MID LEVEL              
 CLOUDS TRAVERSING MAINLY THE NRN CWA. WATERVAPOR IMAGERY/RUC ANLYS             
 FIELDS SHOWS AN IMPRESSIVE SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING INTO WEST                  
 TX...CAUSING THE TAIL OF STRENGTHENING 160-180KT+ JETSTREAK TO DIP             
 SWD ACROSS THE SERN CONUS. DVLPG SFC LOW PRES CTR CURRENTLY TUCKED             
 UP AGAINST THE TX GULF COAST WITH QSTNY FRONT SNAKING ENE FROM IT              
 OFFSHORE TX/WRN LA...AND THEN INLAND NEAR KMSY AND OVER SRN AL/GA.             
 FCST...WDSPRD L80S (PERHAPS A FEW INTR READINGS NR 85F) ON TAP AS              
 BRISK/GUSTY SSE-S FLOW VEERS TO S-SSW DURING THE AFTN...ALTHOUGH               
 PROBABLY NOT QUITE UP TO NPW/LAKE WIND ADV CRITERIA. LOW PRES CTR              
 STILL PROGGED TO INTENSIFY AND ROCKET ENE-WD ALONG THE FRONTAL                 
 BDRY...BRINGING INCRSG RAIN CHCS AND THREAT FOR SVR STORMS (MAINLY             
 STRAIGHT LINE WINDS AS DIRECTIONAL SHEAR DOESN`T LOOK LIKE IT WILL             
 CONTRIBUTE A WHOLE LOT TO TOTAL 0-1KM HELICITY PROFILE. IN ADDITION            
 ...WITH M-U50 TD`S IN PLACE...THE LOCAL AIR MASS HAS A WAYS TO GO TO           
 MODIFY TO WHERE ENOUGH CONDITIONAL INSTABILITY WILL EXIST TO SUPPORT           
 CONVECTION OVERNIGHT. INDEED...06Z BUFKIT DATA INDICATED MARGINAL              
 INSTABILITY (500-800 J/KG) WITH THE TIME OF PEAK CAPE SEVERAL HRS              
 PRIOR TO THE APPROACH OF PRIMARY CONVECTIVE BAND TO THE FAR NRN CWA            
 @09Z-12Z...WHICH IS NEAR THE DIURNAL CONVECTIVE MINIMUM OVER LAND.             
 THAT BEING SAID...ANTICIPATED DEVELOPMENT OF A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET            
 (H85 WINDS OF 50-70KT ACROSS THE NRN PENINSULA) WILL HELP OVERCOME             
 CONVECTIVE INHIBITION OF LOCAL AIR MASS. PWATS ARE PROGGED TO RISE             
 TO NEARLY 2.0". SO WITH STRONG FORCING/IMPRESSIVE DEEP LAYER WIND              
 FIELDS GOING UP AGAINST MARGINAL INSTABILITY...WILL BE INTERESTING             
 TO SEE HOW THIS ALL PLAYS OUT AS CONVECTION IS JUST NOW BEGINNING TO           
 FORM OVER THE GOMEX.                                                           
 WILL UPDATE ZFP TO REMOVE MENTION OF SPRINKLES AND TO ADJUST SKY               
 COVER ACROSS THE SRN HALF CWA TO "PSUNNY".                                     
 &&                                                                             
 .AVIATION...VFR WITH BKN TO LCLLY OVC CIGS FL050-080 ACROSS THE                
 MCO/ORL/SFB/DAB AERODROMES. A FEW MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN DIURNAL SHRA              
 PSBL ~19Z-23Z. INCRSG RAIN CHCS ACROSS MOVING TWD THE NRN AERODROMES           
 AFT 08Z TONIGHT.                                                               
 &&                                                                             
 .MARINE...CURRENT BUOY/C-MAN OBS SHOW SSE-S WINDS ALEADY AROUND 20KT           
 SUSTAINED ACROSS MUCH OF THE MARINE AREA. EXPECT SOME ADDITIONAL               
 STRENGTHENING THIS AFTN/EVENING...PEAKING @25-30KT OUT OF S-SSW WITH           
 GALE FORCE GUSTS. CURRENT CWF IS ON TOP OF THIS. NO CHGS NECESSARY.            
 &&                                                                             
 .FIRE WEATHER...STRONG SURFACE/TRANSPORT WINDS THIS AFTN WILL RESULT           
 IN VERY HIGH DISPERSION VALUES. BURN ACTIVITIES WILL BE PROBLEMATIC.           
 &&                                                                             
 .MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                            
 FL...NONE.                                                                     
 AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS THROUGH 10 AM EST FRIDAY FROM              
      FLAGLER BEACH TO JUPITER INLET OUT 20 NM-                                 
      SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH PM EST FRIDAY FROM FLAGLER BEACH             
      TO JUPITER INLET 20 TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-                                    
 &&                                                                             
 $$                                                                             
 CRISTALDI                                                                      
</pre> fl                                                                       

 AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                       
 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC                                         
 1103 AM EST THU FEB 1 2007                                                     
 .SHORT TERM /REST OF TODAY/...                                                 
 1021 MB SFC HIGH CURRENTLY CENTERED NEAR THE OUTER BANKS OF NC                 
 WITH ITS SWRN SECTION WEDGING DOWN THE E SIDE OF THE APPALACHIANS.             
 THE SHARP AIRMASS DELINEATION BETWEEN STRONG WARM ADVECTION TO THE             
 S AND COOL STABLE LAYER TO THE N IS VERY EVIDENT ON MSAS ANALYSES              
 AND MESONET OBS. ON THE SRN EDGE...IT APPEARS TO BE JUST N OF                  
 SAVANNAH AND HILTON HEAD...WHILE S OF BEAUFORT. LITTLE MOVEMENT IS             
 ANTICIPATED TODAY AS WIDESPREAD LIGHT TO MODERATE PRECIP IS NOW                
 FALLING INTO THE WEDGE AND MAINTAINING ITS POSITION. UPDATED POPS              
 TO INDICATE HIGHEST VALUES ACROSS SC WITH A SOMEWHAT DELAYED ONSET             
 ACROSS EXTREME SE GA AND THE WATERS. ALSO HAVE REWORKED TEMPS AND              
 DEWPTS ON AN HOURLY BASIS USING LATEST RUC/WRF GUIDANCE. THIS                  
 KEEPS FAR INLAND SC IN THE LOWER 40S WHILE EXTREME SE GA COULD                 
 REACH THE MID 60S.                                                             
 &&                                                                             
 .MARINE...                                                                     
 SFC OBS SHOW THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED RIGHT ACROSS OUR                      
 NEARSHORE WATERS THIS MORNING WITH SMALL OSCILLATIONS N OR S. 12               
 KM WRF AND 40 KM RUC ARE BOTH INITIALIZED PRETTY WELL AND SHOW THE             
 BOUNDARY REMAINING NEARLY STATIONARY TODAY. A SMALL JOG TO THE N               
 IS POSSIBLE LATE IN THE AFTERNOON AS THE 50-60 KT H85 JET DEVELOPS             
 ALONG THE COAST. NEARSHORE WINDS ARE GENERALLY BELOW 20 KT WHILE               
 THE OUTER GA WATERS HAVE SHOWN A STEADY INCREASE TO BETWEEN 25 AND             
 30 KT AT 10Z. HOWEVER...THE SENSOR ON THE R2 TOWER OVER AMZ374 IS              
 ELEVATED...THUS SAMPLING THE LLJ MUCH BETTER. WAVE HEIGHTS OF 4.3              
 FT INDICATE MUCH LESS WIND MIXING TO THE SEA SFC.                              
 HAVE ADJUSTED WIND DIRECTIONS PER LATEST HIGH-RES MODEL                        
 GUIDANCE...KEEPING WINDS NE RIGHT ALONG THE COAST FOR THE FIRST                
 HALF OF THE AFTERNOON WHILE SLY ALL OTHER AREAS. ONLY MADE ONE                 
 CHANGE TO FLAGS...TO DELAY ONSET OF THE SCA IN THE HARBOR UNTIL                
 23Z. THE WEDGE BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN JUST OFFSHORE                    
 THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND WINDS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW 20 KT. WILL               
 HEADLINE EXERCISE CAUTION FOR 15-20 KT. ALSO TWEAKED SEAS TO DELAY             
 BUILDING OF HIGHEST SEAS.                                                      
 &&                                                                             
 .HIGH SURF/COASTAL FLOOD/BEACH EROSION...                                      
 NO REAL CHANGES TO PREVIOUS THINKING ON THESE TOPICS. WILL NOT GO              
 ANY HIGHER THAN 7 FT ON THE NEARBY COASTAL WATERS TODAY AND EARLY              
 TONIGHT...SO NO NEED FOR ANY HIGH SURF ADVISORY AT THIS TIME.                  
 HOWEVER...DEPENDING UPON THE STRENGTH OF THE LOW MOVING IN FROM                
 THE WSW TONIGHT... THERE COULD BE A BRIEF PERIOD WHERE THE SURGING             
 WINDS ALLOW FOR SEAS TO APPROACH 8 FT TONIGHT...ESP ON THE SC                  
 WATERS AND WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR A HIGH SURF ADVISORY.                  
 TIDE LEVELS HAVE CHANGED DRAMATICALLY IN THE PAST 24 HOURS...WITH              
 CURRENT TIDES RUNNING ABOVE PREDICTED VALUES. FORTUNATELY THE HIGHER           
 OF THE 2 TIDES TODAY IS EARLY THIS MORNING...AND BY THE TIME WE SEE            
 THE NEXT HIGHER TIDE FRI MORNING THE FLOW IS OFFSHORE. THEREFORE THE           
 RISK OF ANY SHALLOW COASTAL FLOODING APPEARS TO BE LOW.                        
 CERTAINLY COULD SEE SOME BEACH EROSION TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH                  
 INCREASING ONSHORE WINDS AND BUILDING SEAS AND WILL ADDRESS THIS               
 CONCERN IN THE HWO.                                                            
 &&                                                                             
 .AVIATION /16Z-12Z/...                                                         
 LOWER CIGS JUST NOW ARRIVING AT TERMS AS LLVL MOISTURE INCREASES.              
 CIGS WILL CONTINUE TO FALL WITH LOWERING INVERSION THIS AFTN AND               
 TONIGHT. WIND FCST DURING THE PERIOD IS TOUGH GIVEN THE UNCERTAIN              
 OSCILLATIONS OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. ONE CERTAINTY IS THE WIND                
 SHEAR. MODERATE TO STRONG S-SW WINDS WILL PREVAIL ABOVE THE                    
 INVERSION AND HAVE INCLUDED WIND SHEAR AT BOTH KCHS AND KSAV THRU              
 THE REST OF THE FCST PERIOD. BEST CHANCE FOR HEAVIER PRECIP STILL              
 LOOKS TO BE IN THE LATE AFTN INTO THE EVE.                                     
 &&                                                                             
 .CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                            
 GA...NONE.                                                                     
 SC...NONE.                                                                     
 MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 5 AM EST FRIDAY        
      FOR AMZ330.                                                               
      SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST FRIDAY FOR AMZ352-354.               
      SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EST FRIDAY FOR AMZ350.                    
      SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR AMZ374.             
      GALE WARNING FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 5 AM EST FRIDAY FOR               
      AMZ374.                                                                   
 &&                                                                             
 $$                                                                             
 JRL                                                                            
</pre> ga                                                                       

 AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                       
 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY                                            
 1026 AM CST THU FEB 1 2007                                                     
 .UPDATE...                                                                     
 FORECAST UPDATED FOR THIS AFTERNOON TO ACCOUNT FOR RADAR TRENDS AND            
 LATEST 12Z RUC AND NAM RUNS. LIGHT SNOW CONTINUES TO DIMINISH THIS             
 MORNING...WITH NO RADAR OR SURFACE INDICATIONS OF PRECIP WEST OF A             
 PAH TO MVN LINE AT 16Z. OCNL LIGHT SNOW WILL END OVER REMAINDER OF             
 FORECAST AREA IN NEXT FEW HOURS...FOLLOWED BY NOTHING MORE THAN SCTD           
 FLURRIES. NEW 12Z RUC/NAM RUNS AND LATEST RADAR AND SFC REPORTS                
 INDICATE ANY MEASURABLE SNOW WITH THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL NOT ARRIVE              
 BEFORE 00Z...EXCEPT POSSIBLY OVER SE MISSOURI. CHANCE POPS FOR LATE            
 AFTERNOON WILL COVER THESE AREAS.                                              
 TEMPS ARE RUNNING 2 TO 3 DEGREES HIGHER THAN FORECAST. RAISED HIGHS            
 2 OR 3 DEGREES MOST AREAS.                                                     
 &&                                                                             
 .PREV DISCUSSION...                                                            
 GOING FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE. AT 08Z...INITIAL BATCH OF LIGHT                  
 SNOW WAS MOSTLY EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. AMOUNTS HAVE                    
 GENERALLY BEEN A DUSTING TO 1/2 INCH...WITH SPOTTY 1 INCH AMOUNTS              
 REPORTED. RADAR AND SATELLITE TRENDS CONFIRM THERE SHOULD BE A                 
 LULL THIS MORNING IN THE LIGHT SNOW ACTIVITY. CANNOT RULE OUT SOME             
 TRACE WINTRY PRECIP THIS MORNING. BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON...THE               
 SECOND ROUND OF LIGHT SNOW SHOULD DEVELOP INTO SOUTHEAST MISSOURI              
 AND EVENTUALLY FAR WEST KENTUCKY. THIS AREA SHOULD TRANSLATE ENE               
 ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE EVENING...WITH HIGHEST POPS ACROSS                
 THE SOUTHERN 1/2 OF THE FA. THE SREF CONGLOMERATE AND NAM ARE A                
 TAD MORE AGGRESSIVE THAN THE GFS LATE TODAY. WILL TREND TOWARD THE             
 SLIGHTLY QUICKER SOLUTIONS SEEN IN THE SREF / NAM OUTPUT. MODELS               
 REMAIN FAIRLY CONSISTENT IN ADVERTISING UPWARDS OF 1 INCH OF SNOW              
 WITH THE SECOND BATCH LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT ACROSS SOUTHERN SECTIONS          
 OF THE FA. THERE MAY BE ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS OF PERHAPS 1 1/2               
 INCHES OR SO. PRECIP TYPE IS STILL A QUESTION MARK ACROSS THE                  
 HOPKINSVILLE AREA...EAST OF THE LAND BETWEEN THE LAKES. THE NAM                
 AND GFS BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPS ARE COOLER FOR 00Z TONIGHT THAN WHAT              
 WAS SHOWN 24 HOURS AGO. 925/850MB UA CHARTS SHOW IT IS STILL VERY              
 COLD OFF THE DECK. SO WE ARE THINKING MAINLY SNOW. HOWEVER WE WILL             
 MAINTAIN A SMALL RAIN CHANCE WITH THE SNOW IN THE AFOREMENTIONED               
 AREA LATE TODAY JUST IN CASE. FURTHER NORTH INTO SOUTHERN ILLINOIS             
 AND SOUTHWEST INDIANA...THE CHANCE OF SNOW EXISTS...BUT THE                    
 PROBABILITY IS LOWER. THUS OUR ACCUMULATION FORECAST FOR THIS AREA             
 WILL BE LOWER AS WELL. AT THIS TIME DO NOT PLAN ON AN ADVISORY.                
 WILL CONTINUE TO HANDLE THIS EVENT WITH THE SPECIAL WEATHER                    
 STATEMENT PRODUCT. WE DO EXPECT THE SNOW CHANCE TO DIMINISH FROM               
 WEST TO EAST OVERNIGHT. SO WE KEPT WITH OUR GOING CHANCE OF SOME               
 LINGERING VERY LIGHT SNOW OR FREEZING DRIZZLE.                                 
 NO CHANGES WERE MADE BEYOND TONIGHT. STILL A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW             
 FOR FRIDAY. THE NEXT SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO AFFECT THE AREA SUNDAY              
 INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. THERE IS A CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW WITH THIS                   
 SYSTEM. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THROUGHOUT THE SEVEN             
 DAY PERIOD.                                                                    
 &&                                                                             
 .PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                            
 KY...NONE.                                                                     
 MO...NONE.                                                                     
 IL...NONE.                                                                     
 IN...NONE.                                                                     
 &&                                                                             
 $$                                                                             
 UPDATE...MY                                                                    
 PREVIOUS...CN                                                                  
</pre> ky                                                                       

 AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                       
 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY                                         
 1118 AM EST THU FEB 1 2007                                                     
 .UPDATE...                                                                     
 PARTLY SUNNY SKIES ACRS THE RGN...SKY GRIDS AND ZONES UPDATED                  
 ACCORDINGLY.                                                                   
 &&                                                                             
 .PREV DISCUSSION...                                                            
 /ISSUED 903 AM EST THU FEB 1 2007/                                             
 UPDATE...                                                                      
 SOME MID LVL DRYING ACRS THE BGM FCST AREA TDA, WITH DEEPER MSTR               
 ARRIVING FROM THE SOUTH TWDS EVNG. SAT PIX SHOW SIG BREAKS IN THE              
 MID/UPR DECK TO OUR W AND SW, AND WILL BE MORE OPTIMISTIC WITH SKY             
 COVER (LEANING TWDS RUC SKY GRIDS WITH PC TO MC SKIES). SOME                   
 --SHSN ACRS ERN ZONES, BUT THESE ARE DSPTNG AND XPCT TREND TO                  
 CONTINUE, SO A DRY FCST FOR THIS AFTN.                                         
 PREV DISCUSSION...                                                             
 /ISSUED 618 AM EST THU FEB 1 2007/                                             
 AVIATION /12Z-12Z/...                                                          
 BROKEN MID DECK THIS MORNING WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE DAY. WINDS               
 WILL BE LIGHT OUT OF THE SOUTH THIS MORNING, AND WILL INCREASE TO              
 8-12 KTS OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON. A STRAY LIGHT SNOW               
 SHOWER IS POSSIBLE BUT VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST.                            
 LIGHT SNOW WILL OVERSPREAD EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. EXPECT CIGS TO                
 LOWER TO MVFR AROUND 06Z WITH VIS FALLING TO 2-4SM IN LIGHT SNOW               
 MAINLY FROM ITH-BGM SOUTHWARD TO ELM-AVP.  DJP                                 
 PREV DISCUSSION...                                                             
 /ISSUED 305 AM EST THU FEB 1 2007/                                             
 SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...                                     
 HIGH PRESSURE IS SLIDING OFF THE EAST COAST THIS MORNING. RISING               
 MOTION TO THE WEST IS IMPORTING A MID DECK OF CLOUD COVER, AND MAY             
 PRODUCE A FEW STRAY SNOW SHOWERS TODAY. MEANWHILE A WAVE MOVING                
 THROUGH THE GULF STATES WILL CAUSE A STRONGER CYCLONE TO FORM                  
 TONIGHT. THIS STORM WILL QUICKLY MOVE UP THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD.                
 MODEL TRENDS REMAIN SIMILAR TO WHAT WE SAW PVS 24H...THAT SYSTEM               
 WILL REMAIN FAR ENOUGH OUT TO SEA TO KEEP SIG SNOW WELL EAST OF                
 OUR FA. HOWEVER SYSTEM WILL BE RESPONSIBLE FOR LIGHT SNOW OVER                 
 MUCH OF THE REGION, WITH POSSIBILITY OF AN INCH OR TWO                         
 ACCUMULATION OVER SOUTHEASTERN ZONES.                                          
 WILL KEEP LIKELY POPS FOR LIGHT SNOW OVER ENTIRE REGION, FIRST                 
 SPREADING INTO NE PA LATE TONIGHT AND THEN OVER REMAINDER OF                   
 REGION BETWEEN 11Z-15Z.                                                        
 COLD AIR WILL POUR DOWN FROM CANADA BEHIND THE CYCLONE AS TROF                 
 DEEPENS INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. WITH THE AXIS UPSTREAM, WE WILL BE               
 IN A COLD SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW, WHICH SHOULD KEEP LAKE EFFECT MAINLY             
 NORTH OF THE REGION. HAVE ADJUSTED GRIDS TO REFLECT PERIPHERY OF               
 POSSIBLE SNOW BANDS OVER NORTHERN FINGER LAKES, AND NORTHWESTERN               
 PORTION OF MOHAWK VALLEY. DJP                                                  
 LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...                                      
 HAVE PRETTY MUCH FOLLOWED HPC GUIDANCE THRU EXTENDED. STILL LOOKING            
 AT BLO NORMAL TEMPS TO CONTINUE DURG THE PERIOD.  HIGHS EXPECTED TO            
 BE IN THE TEENS AND LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND/OR BLO ZERO. WK              
 ISENTROPIC LIFT EXPECTED ON SATURDAY WITH SCTD SNOW SHOWERS. CLIPPER           
 COMES THRU ON SAT NIGHT INTO SUN WITH LAKE EFFECT KICKING IN BEHIND            
 IT.  BOTH 06Z/12Z GFS KICKS OUT SFC LOW INTO CNTRL PLAIN ON MONDAY             
 AND TRACKS IT ALONG MASON-DIXON LINE MON AND MON NIGHT.  EURO KEEPS            
 LOW FURTHER SOUTH WITH CANADIAN FASTER AND FURTHER NORTH.  STILL A             
 LOT OF UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS SYSTEM...ALTHOUGH 12Z GFS SLIGHTLY                
 FURTHER SOUTH WITH QPF AMTS THAN THE 06Z RUN.  THIS WOULD KEEP MOST            
 OF SNOW SOUTH OF FA.  HAVE OPTED TO GO WITH MORE LES DURING THIS               
 PERIOD THAN SYNOPTIC SCALE SNOWS BUT THIS WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED. PB          
 AVIATION /08Z-06Z/...                                                          
 VERY QUIET TODAY WITH JUST A FEW FLURRIES OR LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS                
 EXPECTED. THESE WILL BE WIDELY SCATTERED, SO DID NOT INCLUDE IN                
 TERMINAL FORECASTS. MID DECK WILL LOWER TO A VFR STRATOCU DECK                 
 LATER TODAY.  DJP                                                              
 &&                                                                             
 .BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                            
 NY...NONE.                                                                     
 PA...NONE.                                                                     
 &&                                                                             
 $$                                                                             
</pre> ny                                                                       

 AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                       
 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY                                         
 903 AM EST THU FEB 1 2007                                                      
 .UPDATE...                                                                     
 SOME MID LVL DRYING ACRS THE BGM FCST AREA TDA, WITH DEEPER MSTR               
 ARRIVING FROM THE SOUTH TWDS EVNG. SAT PIX SHOW SIG BREAKS IN THE              
 MID/UPR DECK TO OUR W AND SW, AND WILL BE MORE OPTIMISTIC WITH SKY             
 COVER (LEANING TWDS RUC SKY GRIDS WITH PC TO MC SKIES). SOME                   
 --SHSN ACRS ERN ZONES, BUT THESE ARE DSPTNG AND XPCT TREND TO                  
 CONTINUE, SO A DRY FCST FOR THIS AFTN.                                         
 &&                                                                             
 .PREV DISCUSSION...                                                            
 /ISSUED 618 AM EST THU FEB 1 2007/                                             
 AVIATION /12Z-12Z/...                                                          
 BROKEN MID DECK THIS MORNING WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE DAY. WINDS               
 WILL BE LIGHT OUT OF THE SOUTH THIS MORNING, AND WILL INCREASE TO              
 8-12 KTS OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON. A STRAY LIGHT SNOW               
 SHOWER IS POSSIBLE BUT VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST.                            
 LIGHT SNOW WILL OVERSPREAD EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. EXPECT CIGS TO                
 LOWER TO MVFR AROUND 06Z WITH VIS FALLING TO 2-4SM IN LIGHT SNOW               
 MAINLY FROM ITH-BGM SOUTHWARD TO ELM-AVP.  DJP                                 
 PREV DISCUSSION...                                                             
 /ISSUED 305 AM EST THU FEB 1 2007/                                             
 SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...                                     
 HIGH PRESSURE IS SLIDING OFF THE EAST COAST THIS MORNING. RISING               
 MOTION TO THE WEST IS IMPORTING A MID DECK OF CLOUD COVER, AND MAY             
 PRODUCE A FEW STRAY SNOW SHOWERS TODAY. MEANWHILE A WAVE MOVING                
 THROUGH THE GULF STATES WILL CAUSE A STRONGER CYCLONE TO FORM                  
 TONIGHT. THIS STORM WILL QUICKLY MOVE UP THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD.                
 MODEL TRENDS REMAIN SIMILAR TO WHAT WE SAW PVS 24H...THAT SYSTEM               
 WILL REMAIN FAR ENOUGH OUT TO SEA TO KEEP SIG SNOW WELL EAST OF                
 OUR FA. HOWEVER SYSTEM WILL BE RESPONSIBLE FOR LIGHT SNOW OVER                 
 MUCH OF THE REGION, WITH POSSIBILITY OF AN INCH OR TWO                         
 ACCUMULATION OVER SOUTHEASTERN ZONES.                                          
 WILL KEEP LIKELY POPS FOR LIGHT SNOW OVER ENTIRE REGION, FIRST                 
 SPREADING INTO NE PA LATE TONIGHT AND THEN OVER REMAINDER OF                   
 REGION BETWEEN 11Z-15Z.                                                        
 COLD AIR WILL POUR DOWN FROM CANADA BEHIND THE CYCLONE AS TROF                 
 DEEPENS INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. WITH THE AXIS UPSTREAM, WE WILL BE               
 IN A COLD SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW, WHICH SHOULD KEEP LAKE EFFECT MAINLY             
 NORTH OF THE REGION. HAVE ADJUSTED GRIDS TO REFLECT PERIPHERY OF               
 POSSIBLE SNOW BANDS OVER NORTHERN FINGER LAKES, AND NORTHWESTERN               
 PORTION OF MOHAWK VALLEY. DJP                                                  
 LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...                                      
 HAVE PRETTY MUCH FOLLOWED HPC GUIDANCE THRU EXTENDED. STILL LOOKING            
 AT BLO NORMAL TEMPS TO CONTINUE DURG THE PERIOD.  HIGHS EXPECTED TO            
 BE IN THE TEENS AND LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND/OR BLO ZERO. WK              
 ISENTROPIC LIFT EXPECTED ON SATURDAY WITH SCTD SNOW SHOWERS. CLIPPER           
 COMES THRU ON SAT NIGHT INTO SUN WITH LAKE EFFECT KICKING IN BEHIND            
 IT.  BOTH 06Z/12Z GFS KICKS OUT SFC LOW INTO CNTRL PLAIN ON MONDAY             
 AND TRACKS IT ALONG MASON-DIXON LINE MON AND MON NIGHT.  EURO KEEPS            
 LOW FURTHER SOUTH WITH CANADIAN FASTER AND FURTHER NORTH.  STILL A             
 LOT OF UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS SYSTEM...ALTHOUGH 12Z GFS SLIGHTLY                
 FURTHER SOUTH WITH QPF AMTS THAN THE 06Z RUN.  THIS WOULD KEEP MOST            
 OF SNOW SOUTH OF FA.  HAVE OPTED TO GO WITH MORE LES DURING THIS               
 PERIOD THAN SYNOPTIC SCALE SNOWS BUT THIS WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED. PB          
 AVIATION /08Z-06Z/...                                                          
 VERY QUIET TODAY WITH JUST A FEW FLURRIES OR LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS                
 EXPECTED. THESE WILL BE WIDELY SCATTERED, SO DID NOT INCLUDE IN                
 TERMINAL FORECASTS. MID DECK WILL LOWER TO A VFR STRATOCU DECK                 
 LATER TODAY.  DJP                                                              
 &&                                                                             
 .BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                            
 NY...NONE.                                                                     
 PA...NONE.                                                                     
 &&                                                                             
 $$                                                                             
</pre> ny                                                                       

 AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                       
 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC                              
 1020 AM EST THU FEB 1 2007                                                     
 .SHORT TERM /TODAY/...PRIMARILY SNOW FALLING ALONG AND WEST OF THE             
 HIGHWAY 17 CORRIDOR AND HAVE ISSUED SNOW ADVISORIES FOR THESE                  
 AREAS UNTIL NOON. STILL ANTICIPATE ENOUGH WARMING IN THE LOW                   
 LEVELS TO CHANGE ALL PRECIPITATION TO RAIN BY MIDDAY. HAVE ALREADY             
 SEEN SOME ACCUMULATIONS OVER GREENE...PITT...LENOIR AND DUPLIN                 
 COUNTIES WITH UP TO AN INCH AND A HALF IN LENOIR COUNTY. REST OF               
 THE CWA WILL HAVE ALL RAIN WITH SOME DECENT QPF AMOUNTS NEAR THE               
 COAST. HAVE ADJUSTED MAX TEMPS DOWN A COUPLE OF DEGREES AS WELL                
 FOR THE AFTERNOON.                                                             
 &&                                                                             
 .AVIATION /15Z-12Z/...GENERALLY IFR WITH RAIN WITH SOME SNOW AT                
 THE WESTERN TAF SITES (PGV, ISO) UNTIL AROUND 16 OR 17Z.                       
 &&                                                                             
 .MARINE...WILL MAKE SOME MINOR TWEAKS TO WIND DIRECTION BASED ON               
 CURRENT OBS AND BLEND IT INTO THE RUC SOLUTIONS FOR THE AFTERNOON.             
 &&                                                                             
 .MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                            
 NC...SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR NCZ029-044-045-079-080-            
      090-091.                                                                  
 MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 AM EST FRIDAY        
      FOR AMZ130-135-150.                                                       
      SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EST                  
      SATURDAY FOR AMZ154-156-158.                                              
      SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EST                 
      SATURDAY FOR AMZ152.                                                      
 &&                                                                             
 $$                                                                             
 COLLINS                                                                        
</pre> nc                                                                       

 AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                       
 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC                                         
 839 AM EST THU FEB 1 2007                                                      
 .UPDATE...                                                                     
 CANCELED THE FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY. ALL ASOS AND MESONET SITES                
 SEEM TO BE ABOVE FREEZING. NRN ZONES STILL SHOWING SOME SUB-                   
 FREEZING DEWPOINTS BUT WET BULB TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE 32. KLTX             
 SHOWING A WELL DEFINED BRIGHTBAND ACRS NRN BLADEN AND ROBESON AND              
 TO A LESSER EXTENT MARLBORO. REPORTS FROM THESE LOCALES INDICATE               
 THAT SOME IP AND WET SNOWFLAKES ARE MIXING WITH THE RAIN. ZFP AND              
 GRIDS WILL IDICATE AS SUCH. RUC SOUNDINGS INIDCATE THAT BY 15Z OR              
 16Z THAT WETBULB TEMP WILL BE FREEZING OR ABOVE THROUGH ABOUT                  
 800MB AT WHICH TIME ANY AND ALL MIXING SHOULD BE OVER WITH.                    
 &&                                                                             
 .PREV DISCUSSION...                                                            
 /ISSUED 645 AM EST THU FEB 1 2007/                                             
 SHORT TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...                                                  
 REGIONAL RADAR LOOPS AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOW PRECIPITATION HAS           
 BEEN SLOW TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA. IT APPEARS THE GFS                       
 DEPICTION...WHICH HAS BEEN THE MODEL OF CHOICE...IS A LITTLE TOO               
 QUICK TO DEVELOP PRECIP. NONETHELESS...LIGHT RAIN WILL STILL DEVELOP           
 LATER THIS MORNING ACROSS WESTERN AREAS WHERE TEMPERATURES ARE                 
 CRITICAL.                                                                      
 INTENSE SOUNDING SCRUTINY SHOW A WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR SOME                
 LIGHT FREEZING RAIN ACROSS WEST AND NORTHWESTERN AREAS AS WET BULB             
 TEMPS ARE AT OR SLIGHTLY BELOW FREEZING. INTERESTING ENOUGH...IN THE           
 FAR NORTHWEST CORNER OF THE AREA TOP DOWN ANALYSIS ACTUALLY SHOWS              
 THE POSSIBILITY FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF SNOW...WITH WARM NOSE TEMPS.             
 AROUND 2 DEGREES CELSIUS. WILL REFRAIN FROM THE MENTION OF SNOW                
 HOWEVER. ALL OF THIS SAID...HAVE EXPANDED THE FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY           
 TO INCLUDE ROBESON...BLADEN COUNTIES IN NORTH CAROLINA WHILE ADDING            
 DILLON...FLORENCE...AND MARION COUNTIES IN SOUTH CAROLINA. ALL                 
 PRECIP. SHOULD BE RAIN BY 1500 UTC.                                            
 FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY...DEEP LAYER OMEGA...MAXIMIZED AROUND             
 1800 UTC...WARRANTS CATEGORICAL POPS ALL AREAS. BASICALLY USED A               
 BLEND OF GUIDANCE NUMBERS AS THERE ARE NO DISCERNIBLE TRENDS IN THE            
 PRODUCTS. SHOULD SEE UPPER 40S ALONG THE COAST WITH AROUND 40                  
 WESTERN AREAS.                                                                 
 MID TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...                                         
 NO CONCERNS ABOUT WINTRY PRECIPITATION THIS PERIOD AS TEMPS WILL               
 STAY ABOVE FREEZING THROUGH TONIGHT. TWO MAIN AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE            
 WILL MOVE NE ALONG A COASTAL TROUGH TONIGHT EACH ACCOMPANIED BY A              
 SLUG OF DEEP MOISTURE EMBEDDED IN A DEEP SW FLOW. JUXTAPOSITION OF             
 THE TROUGH WILL ULTIMATELY DETERMINE THE TRACK OF LOW PRESSURE AND             
 THE AMOUNT OF RAINFALL THE AREA RECEIVES. AT THIS TIME...STORM TOTAL           
 QPF LOOKS TO BE HIGHEST ALONG THE COAST WHERE AROUND 2 INCHES COULD            
 FALL WITH AMOUNTS CLOSER TO AN INCH WELL INLAND. HOWEVER...THAT                
 BEING SAID...AMOUNTS OVER 3 INCHES WILL LIKELY BE LURKING JUST                 
 OFFSHORE. ONE INCH TO AROUND TWO INCHES OF RAIN WILL BE ENOUGH FOR             
 SIGNIFICANT PONDING OF WATER IN LOW LYING AREA...BUT A FLOOD WATCH             
 IS NOT WARRANTED. THIS AMOUNT OF RAIN WILL LIKELY BE ENOUGH TO SEND            
 SOME RIVERS TO OR OVER FLOOD STAGE DURING THE WEEKEND. RAIN SHOULD             
 COME TO AN END FROM SW TO NE LATE TONIGHT...PERHAPS LINGERING TO               
 AROUND DAYBREAK FAR NE.                                                        
 LOW LEVEL INVERSION IS EXPECTED TO BREAK MID TO LATE MORNING ON FRI            
 AND THIS SHOULD ALLOW DRIER AIR AND STRONGER WINDS ALOFT TO MIX DOWN           
 TO THE SURFACE. SW TO W WINDS WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO REBOUND NICELY SO            
 MOST AREAS SHOULD CRACK 50 DEG...PERHAPS TOUCHING NEAR 60 IN A FEW             
 SPOTS.                                                                         
 HIGH PRESSURE OF PACIFIC ORIGIN WILL BUILD SOLIDLY ACROSS THE                  
 CAROLINAS FRI NIGHT AND SAT. TEMPS WILL BE NEAR NORMAL TO SLIGHTLY             
 ABOVE AND NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED.                                        
 LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...HIGH PRESSURE WILL              
 GET SHUNTED S AND E LATE IN THE WEEKEND. MONDAY NIGHT...AN ARCTIC              
 FRONT WILL BLAST ACROSS THE EASTERN CAROLINAS BRINGING IN THE                  
 COLDEST AIRMASS OF THE SEASON. 1000-500 MB THICKNESSES ON THE 12Z              
 GFS DROP AS LOW AS 519DM ACROSS THE NORTH CAROLINA                             
 COUNTIES...EQUATING TO HIGHS ONLY IN THE 30S-LOW 40S WITH LOWS DEEP            
 INTO THE TEENS. TUESDAY NIGHT WILL LIKELY BE THE COLDEST NIGHT EVEN            
 IF THE GFS IS CORRECT IN KEEPING WINDS UP AND THE ATMOSPHERE FROM              
 DECOUPLING. IF THE HIGH IS A LITTLE FARTHER EAST AND WINDS DO                  
 DECOUPLE...WATCH FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF SINGLE-DIGIT LOWS FOR SOME             
 INLAND AREAS...AND POTENTIALLY THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES SINCE FEB 5            
 1996.                                                                          
 AVIATION...UPDATED                                                             
 LOOKS LIKE ONLY CHANCE OF FROZEN OR FREEZING PRECIP WILL BE FOR LBT            
 ONLY THROUGH 14Z WITH ALL RAIN AFTERWARDS. CEILINGS WILL LOWER TO              
 IFR OVER WESTERN TERMINALS BY MID MORNING WITH IFR CEILINGS ALONG              
 THE COAST BY EARLY AFTERNOON. PRECIP WILL GET FAIRLY HEAVY LATER               
 TODAY AS COASTAL LOW DEVELOPS ALONG WITH STRONG OMEGA. CEILINGS/VIS            
 WILL STABLIZE...BOTH IFR...FOR ALMOST THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST            
 PERIOD. WINDS WILL LIKLY BE VARIABLE ALONG THE COAST THIS AFTERNOON            
 AND EVENING AS THE LOW TRACKS NORTHEASTWARD...WITH ALL NORTHEAST               
 WINDS OVER FLO AND LBT.                                                        
 MARINE...                                                                      
 SHORT TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...                                                  
 STRONG SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE COASTAL             
 WATERS LATER TODAY AS COASTAL TROUGH DEVELOPS AND HOVERS ALONG THE             
 COAST. ALTHOUGH THE TIMING WILL BE DELAYED SOMEWHAT...WILL MAINTAIN            
 SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY ALL WATERS BEGINNING AT 9 AM THIS MORNING FOR             
 THE SAKE OF CONTINUITY.                                                        
 MID TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...                                         
 COASTAL TROUGH WILL BE SITUATED ACROSS THE WATERS TONIGHT...WITH TWO           
 AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE EXPECTED TO MOVE ALONG THIS TROUGH. WINDS WILL           
 GET A LITTLE ERRATIC AS THESE AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE MOVE ACROSS THE            
 AREA. GENERALLY STRONG SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED            
 TONIGHT WITH THE PREDOMINATE WIND DIRECTION FROM THE N...SHIFTING TO           
 THE NW OVERNIGHT. SEAS WILL BE PEAKING TONIGHT IN 6 TO 9 FT RANGE.             
 NEAR SHORE...OFFSHORE WINDS WILL KEEP SEAS CLOSER TO 5 FT. WINDS               
 WILL BE SLOW TO DIMINISH ON FRI AS GRADIENT WILL BE SLOW TO RELAX              
 DUE TO PRESSURE DIFFERENCES BETWEEN DEPARTING AND INTENSIFYING AREA            
 OF LOW PRESSURE TO NE AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE W.                
 WINDS AND SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO LOWER FRI NIGHT AND SAT AS HIGH                
 PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE WATERS.                                             
 LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...                                   
 A STALLED FRONT WILL REMAIN WELL OFFSHORE THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH              
 COLD NORTHERLY FLOW CONTINUING THROUGH THE WEEKEND. RAW...BLUSTERY             
 WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS                   
 MOISTURE OVERRUNNING THE FRONT PRODUCES AREAS OF RAIN ACROSS THE               
 COASTAL WATERS. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST FROM THE           
 MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY SATURDAY INTO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS BY               
 SUNDAY EVENING. THE 12Z GFS LOOKS VERY SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS                 
 FORECAST AND IS THE BASIS FOR THIS WIND FORECAST. WAVEWATCH SEAS               
 ALSO LOOK GOOD.                                                                
 &&                                                                             
 .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                            
 NC...NONE.                                                                     
 SC...NONE.                                                                     
 MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 4 PM EST FRIDAY FOR           
      AMZ254-256.                                                               
      SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 7 PM EST FRIDAY FOR               
      AMZ250-252.                                                               
 &&                                                                             
 $$                                                                             
 UPDATE...MBB                                                                   
 SHORT TERM...SHK                                                               
 MID TERM...RJD                                                                 
 LONG TERM...TRA                                                                
 AVIATION...DL                                                                  
</pre> nc                                                                       

 AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                       
 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND                                        
 433 AM CST THU FEB 1 2007                                                      
 .SHORT TERM (TODAY-SUN)...LIGHT SNOW IS ONGOING ACROSS THE AREA                
 AND ALREADY APPROACHING A HALF INCH ACCUMULATED FOR SOME PLACES.               
 ARCTIC FRONT WILL SOON REACH YBR AND YWG AND ENTER THE U.S. AT                 
 LEAST BY 15Z. CLEARING LINE FOLLOWS THE FRONT BUT ANY CLEARING                 
 WILL LAST ONLY A FEW HOURS WITH MORE HIGH CLOUDS ALREADY MOVING                
 SOUTH IN CENTRAL MANITOBA. AND CLEARING MIGHT NOT AS NOTICEABLE                
 ANYWAY BECAUSE OF BLOWING SNOW.                                                
 ONLY 25 TO 30 KNOTS OF WIND IS AVAILABLE TO MIX TOWARDS SURFACE                
 TODAY FROM 925-850 MB. SUFFICIENTLY ADIABATIC LAPSE RATE SHOULD                
 ALLOW THIS TO OCCUR AS COLD ADVECTION AT THOSE LEVELS CONTINUE                 
 THROUGH THE DAY. BUT THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT ALONE IS                    
 ENOUGH TO PRODUCE ABOUT 20 KNOTS SUSTAINED WHICH MAY PICK THE                  
 ACCUMULATING FLUFF AND SUBSTANTIALLY REDUCE VISIBILITIES MOST OF               
 TODAY. RUC SHOWS BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS IN EXCESS OF 20 KNOTS FROM               
 THE NORTHERN RED RIVER VALLEY WESTWARD BY 18Z AND BELIEVE THIS IS              
 SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW ADVISORY CONDITIONS...             
 AND DID SO FOR JUST WEST OF THE VALLEY. BUT WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR             
 A POSSIBLE EXTENSION OF THE ADVISORY THROUGH THE VALLEY NORTH OF               
 FARGO.                                                                         
 BITTER COLD FOLLOWS FOR TONIGHT AND A LONG TERM WIND CHILL                     
 ADVISORY WILL ALMOST CERTAINLY BE NECESSARY...POSSIBLY LASTING                 
 UNTIL WE REACH WIND CHILL WARNING CRITERIA ACROSS MOST OF THE                  
 REGION FOR FRIDAY NIGHT/SAT MORNING. MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS                  
 FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY WILL NOT HELP KEEP THE SURFACE MUCH                    
 WARMER AS THEY USUALLY DO THIS TIME OF YEAR. IN-CLOUD TEMPERATURES             
 IN EXCESS OF -30C WILL NOT RADIATE ENOUGH TO WARM THE SURFACE.                 
 .LONG TERM...NO CHANGE TO EXTENDED FORECAST BEYOND SUNDAY. MEX                 
 GUIDANCE AND GFS SHOW GOOD PERSISTENCE.                                        
 &&                                                                             
 .FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                            
 ND...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM CST THIS           
      AFTERNOON FOR NDZ006-007-014-015-024-026-054.                             
      WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 9 PM CST THIS EVENING          
      FOR NDZ028-038-049-052-053.                                               
 MN...NONE.                                                                     
 &&                                                                             
 $$                                                                             
 GV/                                                                            
</pre> nd                                                                       

 AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                       
 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX                                         
 936 AM CST THU FEB 1 2007                                                      
 .DISCUSSION...                                                                 
 HAVE UPDATED ZONES TO INCLUDE THUNDER IN THE WESTERN HALF OF THE               
 FORECAST AREA AS BOTH THE NAM AND GFS INDICATED 700-500MB LAPSE                
 RATES INCREASING TO 7.0-7.5 C/KM IN THIS AREA. THERE ARE A COUPLE              
 DECENT STORMS JUST TO THE SW OF THE CWA ALREADY. ALSO...WILL                   
 CONTINUE MENTION OF AREAS OF FOG AREAWIDE AT LEAST THROUGH 18Z                 
 WITH MANY STATIONS STILL REPORTING VISBYS IN THE 1-2 MI RANGE.                 
 ALSO ADJUSTED DEWPOINTS.  /13                                                  
 &&                                                                             
 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 539 AM CST THU FEB 1 2007/                         
 UPDATE...                                                                      
 PRECIP SHIELD IS EXPANDING A BIT MORE THAN EARLIER ANTICIPATED. HAVE           
 INCREASED POPS THIS MORNING AND LINGERED PRECIP LONGER THIS                    
 AFTERNOON AND EVENING DUE TO SECOND IMPULSE TRIGGERING MORE PRECIP             
 OVER WEST TX. UPDATED PRODUCTS AVAILABLE SHORTLY.                              
 SCHULTZ                                                                        
 AVIATION...                                                                    
 FOR THE 12Z TAFS...-RA SHOULD BE PREVAILING THROUGH THE MID                    
 AFTERNOON HOURS. VSBYS MAY TEMPORARILY DROP INTO IFR/LIFR CAT THIS             
 MORNING...WITH LIFR/VLIFR CIGS. VSBYS AND CIGS SHOULD RECOVER INTO             
 MVFR CAT BY THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING HOURS AS PRECIP                 
 TAPERS OFF.                                                                    
 05/21                                                                          
 DISCUSSION..../ISSUED 416 AM CST THU FEB 1 2007/                               
 SHORTWAVE ENERGY IS ENTERING WEST TEXAS THIS MORNING...AND MID LEVEL           
 SHEAR AXIS ORIENTATION IS ALIGNED WELL WITH PRECIP SHIELD. RAIN                
 EXTENDS FROM NEAR DFW TO SOUTH OF SJT AT 10Z. SURFACE TEMPS ALONG              
 THE RED RIVER ARE THE MAIN SHORT TERM FOCUS AS PRECIP MOVES INTO THE           
 AREA. RUC ANALYSIS OF 850MB TEMPS KEEPS THE PUSH OF BELOW 0C TEMPS             
 BEHIND THE PROGRESSION OF PRECIPITATION. THIS ANALYSIS SEEMS TO FIT            
 WELL WITH THE PUSH OF THE COLD AIR AT THE SURFACE /PER SFC OBS/                
 WHICH IS BEST OVER FAR WESTERN OK AND THE TX PANHANDLE. FOR                    
 NOW...WILL KEEP PRECIP LIQUID IN THE ZONES TODAY...BUT WILL                    
 REEVALUATE POST 12Z SOUNDINGS AND INCOMING OBS...AND UPDATE IF                 
 NEEDED.                                                                        
 BOTH THE GFS AND NAM MAINTAIN A SATURATED THERMAL PROFILE BELOW                
 FREEZING AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT ALONG THE RED RIVER. WE WILL                   
 INCREASE POPS INTO THE CHC CATEGORY FOR OUR NORTHERN TIER OF ZONES             
 AND EXPAND SLT CHC SOUTHWARD TO JUST NORTH OF THE METROPLEX. LITTLE            
 SNOW ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED...BUT WILL LET DAYSHIFT REEVALUATE AND           
 DETERMINE THE NEED FOR HEADLINES. WE EXPECT THE COLUMN TO QUICKLY              
 DRY FROM THE TOP DOWN...RESULTING IN JUST A SLT CHC FOR FLURRIES               
 AFTER SUNRISE ON FRIDAY OVER OUR NORTHERN ZONES. ATTM...PROFILES               
 APPEAR TOO DRY ON SAT FOR ANY PRECIP AND HAVE REMOVED ISOLATED                 
 FLURRIES FROM THE GRIDS.                                                       
 PATTERN WISE...AMPLIFIED RIDGE MOVING ONTO THE PACIFIC COAST AND               
 STRONG HUDSON BAY LOW WILL SET THE STAGE FOR SEVERAL SHOTS OF COLD             
 AIR TO DROP DOWN INTO THE CENTRAL CONUS. SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL                
 SETTLE INTO NORTH TX ON FRIDAY. THE AREA CAN EXPECT BELOW NORMAL               
 TEMPS...RANGING FROM THE MID 30S TO THE LOWER 50S. AS THE UPPER                
 RIDGE AND TROUGH BOTH TRANSLATE A BIT FARTHER EAST...COLD HIGH                 
 PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL SHOOT NORTHEAST OF OUR AREA...RESULTING IN               
 MINIMAL INFLUENCE OVER OUR NORTHEASTERN ZONES. SOME RETURN FLOW AND            
 BUILDING HEIGHTS SHOULD SET UP A SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST GRADIENT ON            
 TEMPS SUN THROUGH TUES. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE                    
 EXTENDED. JUST BEYOND THE SCOPE OF THIS FORECAST...ECMWF AND UKMET             
 SUGGEST A STRONG SURFACE HIGH WILL PLUNGE INTO THE CENTRAL CONUS               
 LATE NEXT WEEK AND PUSH ANOTHER COLD FRONT INTO NORTH TX.                      
 SCHULTZ                                                                        
 &&                                                                             
 .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                               
 DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  42  30  38  23 / 100  20  10  10                         
 WACO, TX              50  36  45  27 / 100  10  10  10                         
 PARIS, TX             40  27  35  22 / 100  30  10  10                         
 DENTON, TX            40  29  36  23 / 100  20  10  10                         
 MCKINNEY, TX          40  29  35  23 / 100  20  10  10                         
 DALLAS, TX            41  31  38  24 / 100  20  10  10                         
 TERRELL, TX           43  31  39  23 / 100  20  10  10                         
 CORSICANA, TX         46  33  40  24 / 100  20  10  10                         
 TEMPLE, TX            53  37  50  29 / 100  10  10  10                         
 &&                                                                             
 .FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                            
 NONE.                                                                          
 &&                                                                             
 $$                                                                             
 99/99                                                                          
</pre> tx                                                                       

 AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE                                              
 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX                                         
 539 AM CST THU FEB 1 2007                                                      
 .UPDATE...                                                                     
 PRECIP SHIELD IS EXPANDING A BIT MORE THAN EARLIER ANTICIPATED. HAVE           
 INCREASED POPS THIS MORNING AND LINGERED PRECIP LONGER THIS                    
 AFTERNOON AND EVENING DUE TO SECOND IMPULSE TRIGGERING MORE PRECIP             
 OVER WEST TX. UPDATED PRODUCTS AVAILABLE SHORTLY.                              
 SCHULTZ                                                                        
 &&                                                                             
 .AVIATION...                                                                   
 FOR THE 12Z TAFS...-RA SHOULD BE PREVAILING THROUGH THE MID                    
 AFTERNOON HOURS. VSBYS MAY TEMPORARILY DROP INTO IFR/LIFR CAT THIS             
 MORNING...WITH LIFR/VLIFR CIGS. VSBYS AND CIGS SHOULD RECOVER INTO             
 MVFR CAT BY THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING HOURS AS PRECIP                 
 TAPERS OFF.                                                                    
 05/21                                                                          
 &&                                                                             
 .DISCUSSION..../ISSUED 416 AM CST THU FEB 1 2007/                              
 SHORTWAVE ENERGY IS ENTERING WEST TEXAS THIS MORNING...AND MID LEVEL           
 SHEAR AXIS ORIENTATION IS ALIGNED WELL WITH PRECIP SHIELD. RAIN                
 EXTENDS FROM NEAR DFW TO SOUTH OF SJT AT 10Z. SURFACE TEMPS ALONG              
 THE RED RIVER ARE THE MAIN SHORT TERM FOCUS AS PRECIP MOVES INTO THE           
 AREA. RUC ANALYSIS OF 850MB TEMPS KEEPS THE PUSH OF BELOW 0C TEMPS             
 BEHIND THE PROGRESSION OF PRECIPITATION. THIS ANALYSIS SEEMS TO FIT            
 WELL WITH THE PUSH OF THE COLD AIR AT THE SURFACE /PER SFC OBS/                
 WHICH IS BEST OVER FAR WESTERN OK AND THE TX PANHANDLE. FOR                    
 NOW...WILL KEEP PRECIP LIQUID IN THE ZONES TODAY...BUT WILL                    
 REEVALUATE POST 12Z SOUNDINGS AND INCOMING OBS...AND UPDATE IF                 
 NEEDED.                                                                        
 BOTH THE GFS AND NAM MAINTAIN A SATURATED THERMAL PROFILE BELOW                
 FREEZING AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT ALONG THE RED RIVER. WE WILL                   
 INCREASE POPS INTO THE CHC CATEGORY FOR OUR NORTHERN TIER OF ZONES             
 AND EXPAND SLT CHC SOUTHWARD TO JUST NORTH OF THE METROPLEX. LITTLE            
 SNOW ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED...BUT WILL LET DAYSHIFT REEVALUATE AND           
 DETERMINE THE NEED FOR HEADLINES. WE EXPECT THE COLUMN TO QUICKLY              
 DRY FROM THE TOP DOWN...RESULTING IN JUST A SLT CHC FOR FLURRIES               
 AFTER SUNRISE ON FRIDAY OVER OUR NORTHERN ZONES. ATTM...PROFILES               
 APPEAR TOO DRY ON SAT FOR ANY PRECIP AND HAVE REMOVED ISOLATED                 
 FLURRIES FROM THE GRIDS.                                                       
 PATTERN WISE...AMPLIFIED RIDGE MOVING ONTO THE PACIFIC COAST AND               
 STRONG HUDSON BAY LOW WILL SET THE STAGE FOR SEVERAL SHOTS OF COLD             
 AIR TO DROP DOWN INTO THE CENTRAL CONUS. SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL                
 SETTLE INTO NORTH TX ON FRIDAY. THE AREA CAN EXPECT BELOW NORMAL               
 TEMPS...RANGING FROM THE MID 30S TO THE LOWER 50S. AS THE UPPER                
 RIDGE AND TROUGH BOTH TRANSLATE A BIT FARTHER EAST...COLD HIGH                 
 PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL SHOOT NORTHEAST OF OUR AREA...RESULTING IN               
 MINIMAL INFLUENCE OVER OUR NORTHEASTERN ZONES. SOME RETURN FLOW AND            
 BUILDING HEIGHTS SHOULD SET UP A SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST GRADIENT ON            
 TEMPS SUN THROUGH TUES. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE                    
 EXTENDED. JUST BEYOND THE SCOPE OF THIS FORECAST...ECMWF AND UKMET             
 SUGGEST A STRONG SURFACE HIGH WILL PLUNGE INTO THE CENTRAL CONUS               
 LATE NEXT WEEK AND PUSH ANOTHER COLD FRONT INTO NORTH TX.                      
 SCHULTZ                                                                        
 &&                                                                             
 .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                               
 DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  42  30  38  23  41 /  80  10  10  10  10                 
 WACO, TX              51  36  45  27  47 /  90  10  10  10  10                 
 PARIS, TX             40  27  35  22  39 / 100  30  10  10  10                 
 DENTON, TX            40  29  36  23  40 /  80  20  10  10  10                 
 MCKINNEY, TX          40  29  35  23  39 / 100  20  10  10  10                 
 DALLAS, TX            41  31  38  24  42 /  90  10  10  10  10                 
 TERRELL, TX           43  31  39  23  43 / 100  10  10  10  10                 
 CORSICANA, TX         48  33  40  24  44 /  90  10  10  10  10                 
 TEMPLE, TX            53  37  50  29  48 /  90  10  10  10  10                 
 &&                                                                             
 .FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                            
 NONE.                                                                          
 &&                                                                             
 $$                                                                             
 21/05/92                                                                       
</pre> tx                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO                                              
254 PM MST WED JAN 31 2007                                                      
.SHORT TERM...                                                                  
(TONIGHT AND THURSDAY)                                                          
MAIN FORECAST CONCERN REMAIN SNOW AMOUNTS TONIGHT.                              
CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATING               
BROAD UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES BACK THROUGH THE                
ROCKIES WITH TROUGH AXIS MOVING ACROSS NORTHWEST COLORADO ATTM.                 
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY ALSO INDICATING YET ANOTHER SYSTEM DIVING NORTH             
OUT OF CENTRAL CANADA AND INTO THE NORTHERN TIER STATES ATTM. AT THE            
SFC...COLD FRONT WHICH BLASTED ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO EARLY THIS               
MORNING IS CURRENTLY BACKED UP ACROSS THE EASTERN MTS THROUGH                   
EASTERN NEW MEXICO AND ACROSS WESTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE ATTM AS HIGH              
PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD INTO THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS. REGIONAL             
SATELLITE AND RADARS INDICATING CLOUD TOP COOLING AND WIDESPREAD                
ECHOES ACROSS WESTERN AND SOUTH CENTRAL COLORADO ATTM.                          
FOR TONIGHT...UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO TRANSLATE ACROSS THE STATE              
WITH TROUGH AXIS MOVING ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL COLORADO AROUND 06Z THU            
AND INTO SOUTHWEST KANSAS BY 12Z...AS NEXT CANADIAN SYSTEM CONTINUES            
TO MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. MOISTURE AND LIFT ASSOCIATED                 
WITH PASSING SYSTEM SHOULD CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL                
COLORADO THIS EVENING AND INTO WESTERN KANSAS OVERNIGHT WITH                    
ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION DIMINISHING QUICKLY FROM WEST TO EAST                  
WITH PASSAGE OF TROUGH AXIS...SAVE THE CENTRAL MTS WITH CONTINUED               
OROGRAPHIC FLOWS. HAVE KEPT CURRENT HIGHLIGHTS IN PLACE ACROSS THE              
SW AND CENTRAL MTS WITH ANOTHER 1 TO 4 INCHES EXPECTED THROUGH THE              
EVENING. SPOTTER REPORTS INDICATING GENERALLY UNDER 2 INCHES HAS                
FALLEN ACROSS THE EASTERN MTS ATTM...THOUGH WITH EAST TO NORTHEAST              
LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE CONTINUING TO DEVELOP...WILL KEPT CURRENT                     
HIGHLIGHTS ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN MTS AS WELL...WITH ADDITIONAL                
ACCUMS BETWEEN 2 AND 6 INCHES EXPECTED...WITH HIGHEST AMOUNTS ACROSS            
THE SOUTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTO MTS. SNOW HAS BEEN RATHER SPOTTY                  
ACROSS THE I-25 CORRIDOR THUS FAR...BUT EXPECT THAT TO INCREASE AS              
TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE AREA WITH AN ADDITIONAL 1 TO 3 INCHES                   
POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY WESTERN AREAS CLOSER TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN.               
NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF ACCUMULATING PRECIP ACROSS THE FAR             
EASTERN PLAINS...BUT CANT RULE OUT A FEW SNOW SHOWERS OVERNIGHT                 
AHEAD OF PASSING SYSTEM. WITH COLD AIR IN PLACE...OVERNIGHT LOWS TO             
REMAIN BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES...AND HAVE GONE AOB COOLEST                      
GUIDANCE...ESPECIALLY THE SAN LUIS AND LOWER ARKANSAS VALLEYS WITH              
PARTIAL CLEARING EXPECTED BY MORNING.                                           
ON THURSDAY...NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT INCREASES ACROSS THE STATE AS                
NEXT SYSTEM CONTINUES TO DIVE INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES WITH                    
ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY PROGGED TO MOVE ACROSS NORTHEAST                    
COLORADO BY LATE AFTERNOON. HAVE FOLLOWED CLOSER TO GFS SOLUTION                
WITH FASTER MOVEMENT OF FRONTAL BOUNDARY...AND HAVE INTRODUCED                  
CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE EASTERN MTS AND ALONG THE PALMER DVD FOR THE             
AFTERNOON. WITH MOISTURE AND LIFT AND OROGRAPHIC FLOW INCREASING                
ACROSS THE CENTRAL MTS...HAVE GONE WITH LIKELY POPS WITH 1 TO 3                 
INCHES POSSIBLE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. -MW                                      
.LONG TERM...                                                                   
(THU NIGHT THROUGH WED)                                                         
...FLUFFY SNOW ANTICIPATED FOR THU NIGHT INTO FRI...                            
...PREPARE NOW FOR EXTREMELY COLD TEMPERATURES FRI-WEEKEND...                   
...DANGEROUS WIND CHILL VALUES POSSIBLE FRI NIGHT-SAT...                        
THU NIGHT AND FRI...NEXT CANADIAN WEATHER SYSTEM WILL BE TAKING AIM             
ON THE CENTRAL ROCKIES AND THIS IS STRONGEST ONE OF THE ARCTIC                  
SYSTEM INTRUSIONS. SIGNIFICANT COLD FRONT SHOULD BE BLASTING THROUGH            
CO THU NIGHT AND COULD BE FASTER. A LITTLE BETTER AND DEEPER                    
SYNOPTIC SCALE ASCENT IMPLIED GIVEN THE DYNAMICS. H5-H3 DIV-Q                   
IMPLIED UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION JUXTAPOSED WITH H8-H7 AND                        
H7-H6 IMPLIED UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION PER 2-D PETTERSON ANALYSES.                
BOTH 12KM WRF AND GFS HAVE THIS SCENARIO FOR THU NIGHT INTO FRI                 
MORNING...SO CONFIDENCE IS SOMEWHAT HIGH OF PRECIPITATION AND                   
ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL. HAVE INCREASED POPS TO HIGH "LIKELYS" FOR THU            
NIGHT INTO FRI MORNING FOR THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN MOUNTAINS                    
INCLUDING THE I-25 CORRIDOR. GIVEN THE THERMAL STRUCTURE ALONG THE              
FRONT...EXCELLENT DENDRITIC SNOW GROWTH WILL BE LIKELY IN THE MOIST             
LAYER RESULTING IN 20-1 TO 40-1 SNOW RATIOS PRODUCING FLUFFY SNOW               
THAT CAN ADD UP QUICKLY IN LOW WATER CONTENT SNOWFALL. MIGHT NEED               
SOME ADVISORIES FOR OUR EASTERN CO MOUNTAINS AND I-25 CORRIDOR AS               
THE EVENT NEARS. PRECIPITATION CHANCES SHOULD BE DIMINISHING BY FRI             
AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY BE STEADY OR SLOWLY FALLING                 
FRI...BUT IF THE PRECIPITATION STOPS DURING THE THE AFTERNOON...THEN            
THERE COULD BE A COUPLE OF DEGREES RECOVERY. CURRENT TEMPERATURES               
FORECAST LOOKS ON TARGET AND ONLY MINOR SPATIAL CONSISTENCY ISSUES              
WERE TAKEN CARE OF.                                                             
FRI NIGHT AND SAT...12KM WRF AND GFS KIND OF DIVERGE IN TERMS OF THE            
AMOUNT OF MIDLEVEL TEMPERATURES WARMING THAT OCCURS. THE GFS IS                 
SLIGHTLY WARMER IN THE MIDLEVEL FRI NIGHT THROUGH SAT...WHILE THE               
WRF HAS H7 TEMPERATURES -18C TO -26C EVEN DURING THE DAYTIME PERIOD             
SAT. IT SHOULD BE MUCH BELOW AVERAGE CHILLY TEMPERATURES...EITHER               
EXTREMELY COLD OR VERY COLD. SUB-ZERO LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE                  
HIGHLY PROBABLE ACROSS MUCH SOUTHERN CO LOCATIONS FRI NIGHT AND                 
STRUGGLING TO WARM SAT...ESPECIALLY IN TRAPPED VALLEYS AND OVER                 
DENSE SNOW-PACK. A BIG FORECAST CONCERN WILL BE DANGEROUS WIND                  
CHILLS FRI NIGHT INTO SAT. COULD REACH WARNING VALUES IN THE                    
MOUNTAINS(E.G. -35F OR LOWER) AND ADVISORY TO MAYBE WARNING VALUES              
AT THE LOWER ELEVATIONS. MOST AREAS WILL SEE WIND CHILL VALUES OF               
-15F TO -35F LATE FRI NIGHT AND SAT MORNING. WIND CHILL HEADLINES               
MAY BE NEEDED AS THE EVENT GETS CLOSER AND THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER                
OUTLOOK HAS THIS HANDLED WELL RIGHT NOW. ANY PRECIPITATION                      
POTENTIAL WOULD LIKELY BY AROUND THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE GIVEN THE               
WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.                                                      
SUN THROUGH WED...NORTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPS SUN AND INTO EARLY NEXT               
WEEK AS THE EXTREMELY COLD TROUGH MIGRATES EASTWARD. MIDLEVEL                   
WARMING STARTS SUN AND THE BIGGEST CHALLENGE WILL BE WHEN AND IF THE            
LOW LEVEL ARCTIC AIR MASS RECEDES FROM EASTERN CO AND GETS "MIXED               
OUT" FROM THE HIGH MOUNTAIN VALLEYS. HAVE TRENDED TOWARDS A                     
MODERATING TEMPERATURE TREND...BUT HELD TEMPERATURES BACK A LITTLE              
IN HIGH VALLEYS AND DENSE SNOW-PACK AREAS LIKE KLAA. HPC GUIDANCE               
HAS A SIGNIFICANT WARM-UP FORECAST FOR TUE AND WED. THIS MAY BE                 
VALID AS A PATTERN CHANGE TO WESTERLY FLOW GIVEN MANY OF THE                    
ENSEMBLE MEMBERS. THE CHALLENGE WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE WARM-UP OVER            
DENSE SNOW-PACK...WHERE HPC AND MOS GUIDANCE HAVE BEEN TOO                      
WARM PER GRIDDED VERIFICATION DATA. METZE                                       
&&                                                                              
.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR COZ058>060-066-                  
068-072>075-079-080.                                                            
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
23/17                                                                           
</pre> co                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL                                           
1025 AM EST THU FEB 1 2007                                                      
...WARM AND WINDY TODAY WITH GUSTS NEAR GALE FORCE POSSIBLE                     
    OVER THE OFFSHORE ATLANTIC WATERS TONIGHT...                                
...FAST-MOVING SHOWERS AND POTENTIALLY STRONG STORMS MOVING                     
   THROUGH TONIGHT...                                                           
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
CURRENT...STATE 88D MOSAIC SHOWS THAT THE FEW SPRINKLES AROUND                  
EARLIER THIS MORNING HAVE DISSIPATED. AS EXPECTED BRISK SRLY FLOW               
HAS DEVELOPED OVER THE CWA THIS MORNING WITH WINDS ALREADY UP TO                
15G25MPH AT MOST METAR SITES. VIS IMAGERY SHOWS BKN LOW-MID LEVEL               
CLOUDS TRAVERSING MAINLY THE NRN CWA. WATERVAPOR IMAGERY/RUC ANLYS              
FIELDS SHOWS AN IMPRESSIVE SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING INTO WEST                   
TX...CAUSING THE TAIL OF STRENGTHENING 160-180KT+ JETSTREAK TO DIP              
SWD ACROSS THE SERN CONUS. DVLPG SFC LOW PRES CTR CURRENTLY TUCKED              
UP AGAINST THE TX GULF COAST WITH QSTNY FRONT SNAKING ENE FROM IT               
OFFSHORE TX/WRN LA...AND THEN INLAND NEAR KMSY AND OVER SRN AL/GA.              
FCST...WDSPRD L80S (PERHAPS A FEW INTR READINGS NR 85F) ON TAP AS               
BRISK/GUSTY SSE-S FLOW VEERS TO S-SSW DURING THE AFTN...ALTHOUGH                
PROBABLY NOT QUITE UP TO NPW/LAKE WIND ADV CRITERIA. LOW PRES CTR               
STILL PROGGED TO INTENSIFY AND ROCKET ENE-WD ALONG THE FRONTAL                  
BDRY...BRINGING INCRSG RAIN CHCS AND THREAT FOR SVR STORMS (MAINLY              
STRAIGHT LINE WINDS AS DIRECTIONAL SHEAR DOESN`T LOOK LIKE IT WILL              
CONTRIBUTE A WHOLE LOT TO TOTAL 0-1KM HELICITY PROFILE. IN ADDITION             
...WITH M-U50 TD`S IN PLACE...THE LOCAL AIR MASS HAS A WAYS TO GO TO            
MODIFY TO WHERE ENOUGH CONDITIONAL INSTABILITY WILL EXIST TO SUPPORT            
CONVECTION OVERNIGHT. INDEED...06Z BUFKIT DATA INDICATED MARGINAL               
INSTABILITY (500-800 J/KG) WITH THE TIME OF PEAK CAPE SEVERAL HRS               
PRIOR TO THE APPROACH OF PRIMARY CONVECTIVE BAND TO THE FAR NRN CWA             
@09Z-12Z...WHICH IS NEAR THE DIURNAL CONVECTIVE MINIMUM OVER LAND.              
THAT BEING SAID...ANTICIPATED DEVELOPMENT OF A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET             
(H85 WINDS OF 50-70KT ACROSS THE NRN PENINSULA) WILL HELP OVERCOME              
CONVECTIVE INHIBITION OF LOCAL AIR MASS. PWATS ARE PROGGED TO RISE              
TO NEARLY 2.0". SO WITH STRONG FORCING/IMPRESSIVE DEEP LAYER WIND               
FIELDS GOING UP AGAINST MARGINAL INSTABILITY...WILL BE INTERESTING              
TO SEE HOW THIS ALL PLAYS OUT AS CONVECTION IS JUST NOW BEGINNING TO            
FORM OVER THE GOMEX.                                                            
WILL UPDATE ZFP TO REMOVE MENTION OF SPRINKLES AND TO ADJUST SKY                
COVER ACROSS THE SRN HALF CWA TO "PSUNNY".                                      
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...VFR WITH BKN TO LCLLY OVC CIGS FL050-080 ACROSS THE                 
MCO/ORL/SFB/DAB AERODROMES. A FEW MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN DIURNAL SHRA               
PSBL ~19Z-23Z. INCRSG RAIN CHCS ACROSS MOVING TWD THE NRN AERODROMES            
AFT 08Z TONIGHT.                                                                
&&                                                                              
.MARINE...CURRENT BUOY/C-MAN OBS SHOW SSE-S WINDS ALEADY AROUND 20KT            
SUSTAINED ACROSS MUCH OF THE MARINE AREA. EXPECT SOME ADDITIONAL                
STRENGTHENING THIS AFTN/EVENING...PEAKING @25-30KT OUT OF S-SSW WITH            
GALE FORCE GUSTS. CURRENT CWF IS ON TOP OF THIS. NO CHGS NECESSARY.             
&&                                                                              
.FIRE WEATHER...STRONG SURFACE/TRANSPORT WINDS THIS AFTN WILL RESULT            
IN VERY HIGH DISPERSION VALUES. BURN ACTIVITIES WILL BE PROBLEMATIC.            
&&                                                                              
.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
FL...NONE.                                                                      
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS THROUGH 10 AM EST FRIDAY FROM               
     FLAGLER BEACH TO JUPITER INLET OUT 20 NM-                                  
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH PM EST FRIDAY FROM FLAGLER BEACH              
     TO JUPITER INLET 20 TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-                                     
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
CRISTALDI                                                                       
</pre> fl                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL                                         
430 AM EST THU FEB 01 2007                                                      
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
07Z WATER VAPOR AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOWING A MUCH MORE ZONAL PATTERN              
ALONG THE EAST COAST AND DOWN TO THE GULF COAST. THIS WILL BE VERY              
SHORT LIVED AS ENERGY NOW DIVING THROUGH THE MID SECTION OF THE                 
COUNTY WILL CONTINUE TO DIG SOUTH AND EAST AND AMPLIFY THE PATTERN              
THROUGH THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS.                                                
AT THE SURFACE WE SEE HIGH PRESSURE BEGINNING TO SLIP OFF THE                   
CAROLINA COAST AS LOW PRESSURE ORGANIZES IN THE WESTERN GULF OF                 
MEXICO. A WARM FRONT EXTENDING EAST FROM THIS LOW IS NOW MOVING UP              
INTO THE CENTRAL AND NORTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. THIS LOW WILL BE              
OUR WEATHER MAKER INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. AS THE LOW HAS                     
ORGANIZED OVERNIGHT PLENTY OF CLOUDS HAVE SPILLED EASTWARD OVER THE             
SOUTHEAST. AREAS OF PRECIPITATION HAVE ALSO BEEN ON THE MOVE TOWARD             
THE EAST AND NORTHEAST WITH THE MAIN THRUST OF THE PRECIP UP ACROSS             
MS/AL/AND NORTHERN GEORGIA SO FAR. ACROSS THESE AREAS THE COLD AIR              
IS MORE DEEPLY ENTRENCHED AND AREAS OF SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN HAVE             
BEEN OCCURRING.                                                                 
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM...                                                                  
(TODAY-SATURDAY) LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE               
NORTH-CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO TODAY WITH AREAS OF RAIN AND ISOLATED              
THUNDERSTORMS SPREADING EAST THROUGH THE DAY. THE EASTERN PORTION OF            
THE CWA IS LIKELY TO BE INITIALLY FAIRLY DRY WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A            
FEW WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND HAVE LOWERED POPS FOR THE FIRST                
HALF OF THE DAY. AREAS OF RAIN WILL THEN OVERSPREAD THE ENTIRE AREA             
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS THE LOW AND BETTER DYNAMICS APPROACH. SO               
FAR THE BEST ISENTROPIC LIFT HAS REMAINED TO OUR NORTH WHERE AREAS              
OF RAIN/FREEZING RAIN/SLEET AND SNOW HAVE BEEN WIDESPREAD THIS                  
OVERNIGHT. WITH THE FORECAST LOW TRACK...THE WARMFRONT IS NOT LIKELY            
TO PENETRATE INLAND VERY RAPIDLY. HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MIDDLE TO            
UPPER 50S ACROSS OUR NORTHERN ZONES WILL LIKELY NOT BE REALIZED                 
UNTIL LATE IN THE DAY WITH COOL CONDITIONS BEING EXPERIENCE IN THESE            
AREAS NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT. SPC CONTINUES TO COVER PORTIONS OF               
NORTH FLORIDA INTO FAR SOUTHERN GEORGIA WITH A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE            
WEATHER THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. AT THIS TIME THINK ANY                 
SEVERE WEATHER LOOKS TO BE ISOLATED IN NATURE...BUT SHEAR PROFILES              
DO INDICATE THAT ANY SURFACE BASED STORMS THAT GET GOING IN THE                 
WARM SECTOR WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE DAMAGING WINDS AND               
ISOLATED TORNADOES. WILL CONTINUE TO WATCH THE SITUATION AND HAVE               
HIGHLIGHTED THE SEVERE THREAT IN THE GRIDS AND HWO.                             
COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT BRINGING A END TO THE                
SEVERE THREAT FROM WEST TO EAST. FRONT AND QPF FIELDS SHOULD CLEAR              
OUR AREA BY LATE MORNING ALTHOUGH CLOUDS MAY BE A BIT MORE                      
STUBBORN... ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE FLORIDA BIG BEND. FURTHER WEST AND            
NORTH WILL EXPECT AT LEAST SOME SUN BY THE AFTERNOON. HIGH                      
TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL FRIDAY AFTERNOON             
WITH MAINLY UPPER 50S TO MIDDLE 60S AS THERE IS NOT A SIGNIFICANT               
COOL PUSH BEHIND THIS SYSTEM. HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUE TO BUILD EAST              
ALONG THE GULF COAST FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. THIS IS WHERE THE              
FORECAST BECOME A BIT TRICKY. GUIDANCE IS SHOWING THE FRONT TO OUR              
SOUTH MAKING SOME HEADWAY BACK NORTH WITH A BAND OF ISENTROPIC LIFT             
ON THE 295-300K SURFACES TRYING TO GET BACK UP INTO OUR AREA. THE               
NAM IS MUCH MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH THIS FEATURE AND SPREADS WIDESPREAD            
QPF BACK OVER THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT.             
THE GFS IS SHOWING THE HIGH TO OUR WEST NOSING IN SIGNIFICANTLY MORE            
AND HOLDING MUCH OF THIS LIFT AND MOISTURE INTO NORTH FLORIDA AND               
THE NORTHEASTERN GULF. THE GFS HAS STRONG SUPPORT FROM BOTH THE                 
ECMWF AND UKMET ON THIS SCENARIO. DISCUSSIONS WITH SURROUNDING                  
OFFICES AND HPC SHOW AN AGREEMENT THAT THIS MORE SUPPRESSED SOLUTION            
IS THE BETTER WAY TO GO AND HAVE DRAWN MY POP GRIDS TO REPRESENT.               
ONLY HAVE SLIGHT TO LOW END CHANCE POPS FOR SHOWERS OVER THE NORTH              
WITH MID TO HIGH CHANCE POPS OVER NORTH FLORIDA SAT/SAT NIGHT. AS               
WAS MENTIONED LAST NIGHT THIS IS A RATHER COOL AIRMASS TRYING TO                
COME IN SATURDAY NIGHT AND A FEW FLAKES OF SNOW OR A FEW ICE PELLETS            
CAN NOT BE RULED OUT OVER PORTIONS OF THE AREAS SAT NIGHT...BUT                 
STILL BELIEVE THE QPF WILL EXIT AHEAD OF THE REAL COOL AIR PUSH.                
EITHER WAY ANY FROZEN PRECIP WOULD BE LIGHT AND NOT AMOUNT TO MUCH              
OF ANYTHING...WILL CONTINUE TO WATCH.                                           
.LONG TERM...                                                                   
(SUNDAY-THURSDAY) ANY LINGERING SHOWERS WILL EXIT SOUTH OF THE AREA             
EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. AS IT LOOKS NOW AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF DRY AND             
COOL WEATHER WILL THEN BE WITH US INTO THE MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK.            
BOTH GFS/ECMWF SHOWING HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION BY SUNDAY                  
EVENING INTO MONDAY. THIS HIGH THEN BRIEFLY WEAKENS MONDAY NIGHT                
BEFORE A STRONGER AND MORE DOMINANT HIGH BUILDS JUST NORTH OF THE               
AREA FOR TUESDAY INTO THURSDAY. THIS HIGH IS LIKELY TO BRING WITH IT            
PLENTY OF COOL AND DRY AIR ON NORTHERLY TO NORTHEASTERLY FLOW. AT               
THIS TIME THE POSITION OF THE HIGH WOULD BE TO FAR NORTH TO ALLOW               
ANY NIGHTS OF SIGNIFICANT RADIATIONAL COOLING...BUT THIS IS QUITE A             
WAY INTO THE FUTURE FOR DETAILS.                                                
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
LOCAL RADARS AND AIRPORT OBSERVATIONS SHOW THAT SO FAR THE LOWER                
ATMOSPHERE IS TOO DRY TO ALLOW THE LIGHT RAIN TO FALL TO THE                    
SURFACE. WE EXPECT THESE CONDITIONS TO PERSIST THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT            
AND EARLY MORNING HOURS. IT APPEARS THAT THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN               
WILL BE THIS AFTERNOON...EARLY AFTERNOON FOR KDHN AND KPFN...AND MID            
TO LATE AFTERNOON FOR KTLH...KABY...AND KVLD. OCCASIONAL THUNDER IS             
EXPECTED...MAINLY AT KPFN...KTLH...AND KVLD...WHERE THE INSTABILITY             
IS GREATER. VFR CEILINGS ARE FORECAST FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...BUT             
THE CEILINGS WILL GRADUALLY LOWER TO MVFR (AROUND 2500 FT) THIS                 
MORNING AND REMAIN MVFR THROUGHOUT THE DAY. THE VISIBILITY WILL ALSO            
BE REDUCED TO MVFR IN AREAS OF MODERATE RAIN...BUT LOCAL IFR                    
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE HEAVIER SHOWERS. WE THINK THE                    
HEAVIEST RAIN WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH FROM WEST TO EAST THIS                    
EVENING...FOLLOWED BY A LONGER PERIOD OF MOSTLY LIGHT RAIN UNTIL                
ABOUT 06 UTC.                                                                   
&&                                                                              
.MARINE...                                                                      
LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING IN THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO WILL MOVE                 
NORTHEAST TODAY PASSING NORTH OF THE COASTAL WATERS TONIGHT. WIND               
AND SEAS HAVE INCREASED TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS AND WILL                 
CONTINUE ELEVATED THROUGH TONIGHT. WINDS INITIALLY OUT OF THE                   
SOUTHEAST WILL COME AROUND TO SOUTHWEST BY THIS EVENING. NUMEROUS               
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THIS EVENING WITH A              
FEW OF THE STORMS REACHING SEVERE LIMITS. COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE             
WATERS TONIGHT WITH WINDS COMING AROUND TO THE NORTHWEST AND                    
DECREASING BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS. HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS ACROSS              
THE WATERS THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. THE GRADIENT WILL INCREASE AGAIN               
FROM SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY WITH NEAR CAUTION LEVEL WINDS AND                  
SEAS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE OFFSHORE LEGS.                                     
&&                                                                              
.FIRE WEATHER...                                                                
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED FRONT WILL                                 
MOVE EAST ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST U.S. TODAY AND TONIGHT...BRINGING                
WITH IT WIDESPREAD RAIN TO THE REGION. THE RAIN WILL GRADUALLY END              
FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY AS A                  
COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTH INTO THE GULF. THIS FRONT WILL STALL                     
ACROSS THE GULF THIS WEEKEND...BRINGING A BRIEF RETURN OF RAIN                  
CHANCES UNTIL SUNDAY AFTERNOON...WHEN ANOTHER PUSH OF DRY AIR FORCES            
THE CLOUDS AND SHOWERS FAR DOWN INTO THE GULF.                                  
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
TALLAHASSEE  65  54  64  45  53 /  90  90  20  20  50                           
PANAMA CITY  65  54  62  45  55 /  90  90  10  20  50                           
DOTHAN       59  48  60  39  53 /  90  80  10  10  30                           
ALBANY       57  49  62  40  52 /  90  90  10  10  30                           
VALDOSTA     64  54  65  45  54 /  80  90  20  20  40                           
CROSS CITY   69  62  69  49  60 /  60  90  40  30  50                           
&&                                                                              
.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
AL...NONE.                                                                      
GA...NONE.                                                                      
FL...NONE.                                                                      
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT ALL ZONES THROUGH 7 AM EST /6 AM            
CST/ FRIDAY MORNING.                                                            
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
AVIATION...FOURNIER                                                             
REST OF DISCUSSION...MROCZKA                                                    
</pre> fl                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC                                          
1159 AM EST THU FEB 1 2007                                                      
.MARINE UPDATE...LATEST OBS FROM FBIS C-MAN SITE INDICATE THE                   
PRESSURE GRADIENT HAS RAPIDLY TIGHTENED RIGHT ALONG THE CHS COUNTY              
COAST. SUSTAINED WINDS AROUND 20 KT WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS HAVE                 
NOW APPEARED AT FBIS AS WELL AS BEACH LOCATIONS IN CHARLESTON                   
COUNTY. DOWNTOWN CHS SENSOR JUST RECENTLY REPORTED SUSTAINED WINDS              
OF 20-25 KT...WITH THE CHS PILOT BOAT REPORTING SIMILAR READINGS.               
WAVES OF 1 FT NEAR THE PILOT BOAT DOCK WERE SEEN...WITH 2-3 FT                  
NEAR THE HARBOR ENTRANCE. PLAN TO HOIST A SMALL CRAFT ADVY FOR                  
THE CHS HARBOR FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT. UPDATED CWF OUT SHORTLY.                  
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION...                                                             
/ISSUED 1103 AM EST THU FEB 1 2007/                                             
SHORT TERM /REST OF TODAY/...                                                   
1021 MB SFC HIGH CURRENTLY CENTERED NEAR THE OUTER BANKS OF NC                  
WITH ITS SWRN SECTION WEDGING DOWN THE E SIDE OF THE APPALACHIANS.              
THE SHARP AIRMASS DELINEATION BETWEEN STRONG WARM ADVECTION TO THE              
S AND COOL STABLE LAYER TO THE N IS VERY EVIDENT ON MSAS ANALYSES               
AND MESONET OBS. ON THE SRN EDGE...IT APPEARS TO BE JUST N OF                   
SAVANNAH AND HILTON HEAD...WHILE S OF BEAUFORT. LITTLE MOVEMENT IS              
ANTICIPATED TODAY AS WIDESPREAD LIGHT TO MODERATE PRECIP IS NOW                 
FALLING INTO THE WEDGE AND MAINTAINING ITS POSITION. UPDATED POPS               
TO INDICATE HIGHEST VALUES ACROSS SC WITH A SOMEWHAT DELAYED ONSET              
ACROSS EXTREME SE GA AND THE WATERS. ALSO HAVE REWORKED TEMPS AND               
DEWPTS ON AN HOURLY BASIS USING LATEST RUC/WRF GUIDANCE. THIS                   
KEEPS FAR INLAND SC IN THE LOWER 40S WHILE EXTREME SE GA COULD                  
REACH THE MID 60S.                                                              
MARINE...                                                                       
SFC OBS SHOW THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED RIGHT ACROSS OUR                       
NEARSHORE WATERS THIS MORNING WITH SMALL OSCILLATIONS N OR S. 12                
KM WRF AND 40 KM RUC ARE BOTH INITIALIZED PRETTY WELL AND SHOW THE              
BOUNDARY REMAINING NEARLY STATIONARY TODAY. A SMALL JOG TO THE N                
IS POSSIBLE LATE IN THE AFTERNOON AS THE 50-60 KT H85 JET DEVELOPS              
ALONG THE COAST. NEARSHORE WINDS ARE GENERALLY BELOW 20 KT WHILE                
THE OUTER GA WATERS HAVE SHOWN A STEADY INCREASE TO BETWEEN 25 AND              
30 KT AT 10Z. HOWEVER...THE SENSOR ON THE R2 TOWER OVER AMZ374 IS               
ELEVATED...THUS SAMPLING THE LLJ MUCH BETTER. WAVE HEIGHTS OF 4.3               
FT INDICATE MUCH LESS WIND MIXING TO THE SEA SFC.                               
HAVE ADJUSTED WIND DIRECTIONS PER LATEST HIGH-RES MODEL                         
GUIDANCE...KEEPING WINDS NE RIGHT ALONG THE COAST FOR THE FIRST                 
HALF OF THE AFTERNOON WHILE SLY ALL OTHER AREAS. ALSO TWEAKED                   
SEAS TO DELAY BUILDING OF HIGHEST SEAS.                                         
HIGH SURF/COASTAL FLOOD/BEACH EROSION...                                        
NO REAL CHANGES TO PREVIOUS THINKING ON THESE TOPICS. WILL NOT GO               
ANY HIGHER THAN 7 FT ON THE NEARBY COASTAL WATERS TODAY AND EARLY               
TONIGHT...SO NO NEED FOR ANY HIGH SURF ADVISORY AT THIS TIME.                   
HOWEVER...DEPENDING UPON THE STRENGTH OF THE LOW MOVING IN FROM                 
THE WSW TONIGHT... THERE COULD BE A BRIEF PERIOD WHERE THE SURGING              
WINDS ALLOW FOR SEAS TO APPROACH 8 FT TONIGHT...ESP ON THE SC                   
WATERS AND WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR A HIGH SURF ADVISORY.                   
TIDE LEVELS HAVE CHANGED DRAMATICALLY IN THE PAST 24 HOURS...WITH               
CURRENT TIDES RUNNING ABOVE PREDICTED VALUES. FORTUNATELY THE HIGHER            
OF THE 2 TIDES TODAY IS EARLY THIS MORNING...AND BY THE TIME WE SEE             
THE NEXT HIGHER TIDE FRI MORNING THE FLOW IS OFFSHORE. THEREFORE THE            
RISK OF ANY SHALLOW COASTAL FLOODING APPEARS TO BE LOW.                         
CERTAINLY COULD SEE SOME BEACH EROSION TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH                   
INCREASING ONSHORE WINDS AND BUILDING SEAS AND WILL ADDRESS THIS                
CONCERN IN THE HWO.                                                             
AVIATION /16Z-12Z/...                                                           
LOWER CIGS JUST NOW ARRIVING AT TERMS AS LLVL MOISTURE INCREASES.               
CIGS WILL CONTINUE TO FALL WITH LOWERING INVERSION THIS AFTN AND                
TONIGHT. WIND FCST DURING THE PERIOD IS TOUGH GIVEN THE UNCERTAIN               
OSCILLATIONS OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. ONE CERTAINTY IS THE WIND                 
SHEAR. MODERATE TO STRONG S-SW WINDS WILL PREVAIL ABOVE THE                     
INVERSION AND HAVE INCLUDED WIND SHEAR AT BOTH KCHS AND KSAV THRU               
THE REST OF THE FCST PERIOD. BEST CHANCE FOR HEAVIER PRECIP STILL               
LOOKS TO BE IN THE LATE AFTN INTO THE EVE.                                      
&&                                                                              
.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
GA...NONE.                                                                      
SC...NONE.                                                                      
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY AMZ330-352-354-350.                               
         GALE WARNING AMZ374.                                                   
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
JRL                                                                             
</pre> ga                                                                       

 AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                       
 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC                                         
 1159 AM EST THU FEB 1 2007                                                     
 .MARINE UPDATE...LATEST OBS FROM FBIS C-MAN SITE INDICATE THE                  
 PRESSURE GRADIENT HAS RAPIDLY TIGHTENED RIGHT ALONG THE CHS COUNTY             
 COAST. SUSTAINED WINDS AROUND 20 KT WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS HAVE                
 NOW APPEARED AT FBIS AS WELL AS BEACH LOCATIONS IN CHARLESTON                  
 COUNTY. DOWNTOWN CHS SENSOR JUST RECENTLY REPORTED SUSTAINED WINDS             
 OF 20-25 KT...WITH THE CHS PILOT BOAT REPORTING SIMILAR READINGS.              
 WAVES OF 1 FT NEAR THE PILOT BOAT DOCK WERE SEEN...WITH 2-3 FT                 
 NEAR THE HARBOR ENTRANCE. PLAN TO HOIST A SMALL CRAFT ADVY FOR                 
 THE CHS HARBOR FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT. UPDATED CWF OUT SHORTLY.                 
 &&                                                                             
 .PREV DISCUSSION...                                                            
 /ISSUED 1103 AM EST THU FEB 1 2007/                                            
 SHORT TERM /REST OF TODAY/...                                                  
 1021 MB SFC HIGH CURRENTLY CENTERED NEAR THE OUTER BANKS OF NC                 
 WITH ITS SWRN SECTION WEDGING DOWN THE E SIDE OF THE APPALACHIANS.             
 THE SHARP AIRMASS DELINEATION BETWEEN STRONG WARM ADVECTION TO THE             
 S AND COOL STABLE LAYER TO THE N IS VERY EVIDENT ON MSAS ANALYSES              
 AND MESONET OBS. ON THE SRN EDGE...IT APPEARS TO BE JUST N OF                  
 SAVANNAH AND HILTON HEAD...WHILE S OF BEAUFORT. LITTLE MOVEMENT IS             
 ANTICIPATED TODAY AS WIDESPREAD LIGHT TO MODERATE PRECIP IS NOW                
 FALLING INTO THE WEDGE AND MAINTAINING ITS POSITION. UPDATED POPS              
 TO INDICATE HIGHEST VALUES ACROSS SC WITH A SOMEWHAT DELAYED ONSET             
 ACROSS EXTREME SE GA AND THE WATERS. ALSO HAVE REWORKED TEMPS AND              
 DEWPTS ON AN HOURLY BASIS USING LATEST RUC/WRF GUIDANCE. THIS                  
 KEEPS FAR INLAND SC IN THE LOWER 40S WHILE EXTREME SE GA COULD                 
 REACH THE MID 60S.                                                             
 MARINE...                                                                      
 SFC OBS SHOW THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED RIGHT ACROSS OUR                      
 NEARSHORE WATERS THIS MORNING WITH SMALL OSCILLATIONS N OR S. 12               
 KM WRF AND 40 KM RUC ARE BOTH INITIALIZED PRETTY WELL AND SHOW THE             
 BOUNDARY REMAINING NEARLY STATIONARY TODAY. A SMALL JOG TO THE N               
 IS POSSIBLE LATE IN THE AFTERNOON AS THE 50-60 KT H85 JET DEVELOPS             
 ALONG THE COAST. NEARSHORE WINDS ARE GENERALLY BELOW 20 KT WHILE               
 THE OUTER GA WATERS HAVE SHOWN A STEADY INCREASE TO BETWEEN 25 AND             
 30 KT AT 10Z. HOWEVER...THE SENSOR ON THE R2 TOWER OVER AMZ374 IS              
 ELEVATED...THUS SAMPLING THE LLJ MUCH BETTER. WAVE HEIGHTS OF 4.3              
 FT INDICATE MUCH LESS WIND MIXING TO THE SEA SFC.                              
 HAVE ADJUSTED WIND DIRECTIONS PER LATEST HIGH-RES MODEL                        
 GUIDANCE...KEEPING WINDS NE RIGHT ALONG THE COAST FOR THE FIRST                
 HALF OF THE AFTERNOON WHILE SLY ALL OTHER AREAS. ALSO TWEAKED                  
 SEAS TO DELAY BUILDING OF HIGHEST SEAS.                                        
 HIGH SURF/COASTAL FLOOD/BEACH EROSION...                                       
 NO REAL CHANGES TO PREVIOUS THINKING ON THESE TOPICS. WILL NOT GO              
 ANY HIGHER THAN 7 FT ON THE NEARBY COASTAL WATERS TODAY AND EARLY              
 TONIGHT...SO NO NEED FOR ANY HIGH SURF ADVISORY AT THIS TIME.                  
 HOWEVER...DEPENDING UPON THE STRENGTH OF THE LOW MOVING IN FROM                
 THE WSW TONIGHT... THERE COULD BE A BRIEF PERIOD WHERE THE SURGING             
 WINDS ALLOW FOR SEAS TO APPROACH 8 FT TONIGHT...ESP ON THE SC                  
 WATERS AND WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR A HIGH SURF ADVISORY.                  
 TIDE LEVELS HAVE CHANGED DRAMATICALLY IN THE PAST 24 HOURS...WITH              
 CURRENT TIDES RUNNING ABOVE PREDICTED VALUES. FORTUNATELY THE HIGHER           
 OF THE 2 TIDES TODAY IS EARLY THIS MORNING...AND BY THE TIME WE SEE            
 THE NEXT HIGHER TIDE FRI MORNING THE FLOW IS OFFSHORE. THEREFORE THE           
 RISK OF ANY SHALLOW COASTAL FLOODING APPEARS TO BE LOW.                        
 CERTAINLY COULD SEE SOME BEACH EROSION TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH                  
 INCREASING ONSHORE WINDS AND BUILDING SEAS AND WILL ADDRESS THIS               
 CONCERN IN THE HWO.                                                            
 AVIATION /16Z-12Z/...                                                          
 LOWER CIGS JUST NOW ARRIVING AT TERMS AS LLVL MOISTURE INCREASES.              
 CIGS WILL CONTINUE TO FALL WITH LOWERING INVERSION THIS AFTN AND               
 TONIGHT. WIND FCST DURING THE PERIOD IS TOUGH GIVEN THE UNCERTAIN              
 OSCILLATIONS OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. ONE CERTAINTY IS THE WIND                
 SHEAR. MODERATE TO STRONG S-SW WINDS WILL PREVAIL ABOVE THE                    
 INVERSION AND HAVE INCLUDED WIND SHEAR AT BOTH KCHS AND KSAV THRU              
 THE REST OF THE FCST PERIOD. BEST CHANCE FOR HEAVIER PRECIP STILL              
 LOOKS TO BE IN THE LATE AFTN INTO THE EVE.                                     
 &&                                                                             
 .CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                            
 GA...NONE.                                                                     
 SC...NONE.                                                                     
 MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY AMZ330-352-354-350.                              
          GALE WARNING AMZ374.                                                  
 &&                                                                             
 $$                                                                             
 JRL                                                                            
</pre> ga                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC                                          
1103 AM EST THU FEB 1 2007                                                      
.SHORT TERM /REST OF TODAY/...                                                  
1021 MB SFC HIGH CURRENTLY CENTERED NEAR THE OUTER BANKS OF NC                  
WITH ITS SWRN SECTION WEDGING DOWN THE E SIDE OF THE APPALACHIANS.              
THE SHARP AIRMASS DELINEATION BETWEEN STRONG WARM ADVECTION TO THE              
S AND COOL STABLE LAYER TO THE N IS VERY EVIDENT ON MSAS ANALYSES               
AND MESONET OBS. ON THE SRN EDGE...IT APPEARS TO BE JUST N OF                   
SAVANNAH AND HILTON HEAD...WHILE S OF BEAUFORT. LITTLE MOVEMENT IS              
ANTICIPATED TODAY AS WIDESPREAD LIGHT TO MODERATE PRECIP IS NOW                 
FALLING INTO THE WEDGE AND MAINTAINING ITS POSITION. UPDATED POPS               
TO INDICATE HIGHEST VALUES ACROSS SC WITH A SOMEWHAT DELAYED ONSET              
ACROSS EXTREME SE GA AND THE WATERS. ALSO HAVE REWORKED TEMPS AND               
DEWPTS ON AN HOURLY BASIS USING LATEST RUC/WRF GUIDANCE. THIS                   
KEEPS FAR INLAND SC IN THE LOWER 40S WHILE EXTREME SE GA COULD                  
REACH THE MID 60S.                                                              
&&                                                                              
.MARINE...                                                                      
SFC OBS SHOW THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED RIGHT ACROSS OUR                       
NEARSHORE WATERS THIS MORNING WITH SMALL OSCILLATIONS N OR S. 12                
KM WRF AND 40 KM RUC ARE BOTH INITIALIZED PRETTY WELL AND SHOW THE              
BOUNDARY REMAINING NEARLY STATIONARY TODAY. A SMALL JOG TO THE N                
IS POSSIBLE LATE IN THE AFTERNOON AS THE 50-60 KT H85 JET DEVELOPS              
ALONG THE COAST. NEARSHORE WINDS ARE GENERALLY BELOW 20 KT WHILE                
THE OUTER GA WATERS HAVE SHOWN A STEADY INCREASE TO BETWEEN 25 AND              
30 KT AT 10Z. HOWEVER...THE SENSOR ON THE R2 TOWER OVER AMZ374 IS               
ELEVATED...THUS SAMPLING THE LLJ MUCH BETTER. WAVE HEIGHTS OF 4.3               
FT INDICATE MUCH LESS WIND MIXING TO THE SEA SFC.                               
HAVE ADJUSTED WIND DIRECTIONS PER LATEST HIGH-RES MODEL                         
GUIDANCE...KEEPING WINDS NE RIGHT ALONG THE COAST FOR THE FIRST                 
HALF OF THE AFTERNOON WHILE SLY ALL OTHER AREAS. ONLY MADE ONE                  
CHANGE TO FLAGS...TO DELAY ONSET OF THE SCA IN THE HARBOR UNTIL                 
23Z. THE WEDGE BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN JUST OFFSHORE                     
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND WINDS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW 20 KT. WILL                
HEADLINE EXERCISE CAUTION FOR 15-20 KT. ALSO TWEAKED SEAS TO DELAY              
BUILDING OF HIGHEST SEAS.                                                       
&&                                                                              
.HIGH SURF/COASTAL FLOOD/BEACH EROSION...                                       
NO REAL CHANGES TO PREVIOUS THINKING ON THESE TOPICS. WILL NOT GO               
ANY HIGHER THAN 7 FT ON THE NEARBY COASTAL WATERS TODAY AND EARLY               
TONIGHT...SO NO NEED FOR ANY HIGH SURF ADVISORY AT THIS TIME.                   
HOWEVER...DEPENDING UPON THE STRENGTH OF THE LOW MOVING IN FROM                 
THE WSW TONIGHT... THERE COULD BE A BRIEF PERIOD WHERE THE SURGING              
WINDS ALLOW FOR SEAS TO APPROACH 8 FT TONIGHT...ESP ON THE SC                   
WATERS AND WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR A HIGH SURF ADVISORY.                   
TIDE LEVELS HAVE CHANGED DRAMATICALLY IN THE PAST 24 HOURS...WITH               
CURRENT TIDES RUNNING ABOVE PREDICTED VALUES. FORTUNATELY THE HIGHER            
OF THE 2 TIDES TODAY IS EARLY THIS MORNING...AND BY THE TIME WE SEE             
THE NEXT HIGHER TIDE FRI MORNING THE FLOW IS OFFSHORE. THEREFORE THE            
RISK OF ANY SHALLOW COASTAL FLOODING APPEARS TO BE LOW.                         
CERTAINLY COULD SEE SOME BEACH EROSION TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH                   
INCREASING ONSHORE WINDS AND BUILDING SEAS AND WILL ADDRESS THIS                
CONCERN IN THE HWO.                                                             
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION /16Z-12Z/...                                                          
LOWER CIGS JUST NOW ARRIVING AT TERMS AS LLVL MOISTURE INCREASES.               
CIGS WILL CONTINUE TO FALL WITH LOWERING INVERSION THIS AFTN AND                
TONIGHT. WIND FCST DURING THE PERIOD IS TOUGH GIVEN THE UNCERTAIN               
OSCILLATIONS OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. ONE CERTAINTY IS THE WIND                 
SHEAR. MODERATE TO STRONG S-SW WINDS WILL PREVAIL ABOVE THE                     
INVERSION AND HAVE INCLUDED WIND SHEAR AT BOTH KCHS AND KSAV THRU               
THE REST OF THE FCST PERIOD. BEST CHANCE FOR HEAVIER PRECIP STILL               
LOOKS TO BE IN THE LATE AFTN INTO THE EVE.                                      
&&                                                                              
.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
GA...NONE.                                                                      
SC...NONE.                                                                      
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 5 AM EST FRIDAY         
     FOR AMZ330.                                                                
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST FRIDAY FOR AMZ352-354.                
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EST FRIDAY FOR AMZ350.                     
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR AMZ374.              
     GALE WARNING FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 5 AM EST FRIDAY FOR                
     AMZ374.                                                                    
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
JRL                                                                             
</pre> ga                                                                       

 AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                       
 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA                                      
 347 PM EST THU FEB 1 2007                                                      
 .SHORT TERM...                                                                 
 SEVERAL MINOR CHALLENGES IN THE SHORT TERM PACKAGE. MODELS NOT                 
 HANDLING OVERALL PATTERN WELL GIVEN SUBTLE SHORT WAVES AND SHALLOW             
 MOISTURE. HAVE GENERALLY FOLLOWED THE NAM12 AND RUC40 ALONG WITH               
 RADAR AND SATELLITE TRENDS FOR THE SHORT TERM.                                 
 WATER VAPOR SHOWS POTENT ARCTIC WAVE DIVING SOUTH THROUGH CENTRAL              
 CANADA THIS AFTERNOON. DOWNSTREAM FLOW RESPONDING ALREADY WITH                 
 BACKING WINDS AND SOUTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPING AHEAD OF MAIN TROUGH.              
 SEVERAL WEAK SHORT WAVES EMBEDDED IN THIS SOUTHWEST FLOW AND COUPLED           
 WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ARE GENERATING AREAS OF LIGHT SNOW ACROSS              
 THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES REGIONS. THE SOUTHWEST FLOW             
 ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN IS ALSO GENERATING PERSISTENT LAKE EFFECT SNOW            
 BANDS ACROSS MAINLY BERRIEN COUNTY.                                            
 LATEST RADAR AND SATELLITE SHOWS A SHORT WAVE AND EMBEDDED VORTICITY           
 MAX MOVING THROUGH ILLINOIS THIS AFTERNOON. KLOT AND KILX 88D ALONG            
 WITH SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOWING LIGHT SNOW DEVELOPING WITH THIS              
 WAVE. IT SHOULD QUICKLY MOVE NORTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON BUT LOOKS TO             
 GRAZE NORTHWEST INDIANA AND SOUTHWEST MICHIGAN WITH A BRIEF PERIOD             
 OF LIGHT SNOW INTO THIS EVENING. THIS SHOULD ALSO ACT TO ENHANCE LAKE          
 SNOW IN BERRIEN COUNTY THIS EVENING. ANOTHER INCH OR TWO ACCUM                 
 POSSIBLE THERE WITH MAYBE UP TO AN INCH AWAY FROM                              
 LAKE...MAINLY NORTHWEST INDIANA AND SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN.                  
 ANOTHER STRONGER WAVE MOVING THROUGH ARKANSAS THIS AFTERNOON IS                
 PROGGED BY MODELS TO STAY SOUTHEAST OF OUR AREA LATER TONIGHT.                 
 HOWEVER...WATER VAPOR SEEMS TO INDICATE THIS WAVE GETTING LIFTED               
 FURTHER NORTH MUCH QUICKER GIVEN UPSTREAM AMPLIFICATION FROM ARCTIC            
 WAVE. WILL LEAVE LIGHT SNOW MENTION IN ALL AREAS FOR OVERNIGHT AS I            
 SUSPECT WE WILL SEE LIGHT SNOW WITH THIS SYSTEM SPREAD ACROSS                  
 CENTRAL AND EASTERN AREAS OVERNIGHT.                                           
 FINALLY...THE ARCTIC FRONT WILL BLAST ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY MORNING           
 WITH MORNING HIGHS AND FALLING AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES. 850MB TEMPS             
 CRASH TO NEAR -22C IN THE NORTHWEST BY 00Z/03. INCREASING LOW LEVEL            
 MOISTURE WITH ARCTIC SURGE SHOULD ONCE AGAIN ALLOW FOR LIGHT SNOW TO           
 DEVELOP NEAR SURFACE FRONT. HAVE KEPT POPS IN THE CHANCE CATEGORY              
 GIVEN LITTLE MOISTURE TO WORK WITH BUT HIGH LIQUID TO SNOW RATIOS.             
 MAY SEE HALF INCH AMOUNTS WITH TRACE LIQUID. MID SHIFT CAN INCREASE            
 AS RADAR TRENDS DICTATE BY EARLY MORNING. HAVE USED RUC40 AND NAM12            
 TEMPS AND WINDS FOR FRIDAY WITH A DOWNWARD ADJUSTMENT AS THEY ARE              
 LIKELY TOO SLOW WITH FALLING TEMPS. WILL ALSO SEE LAKE EFFECT SNOW             
 SHOWERS INCREASE IN INTENSITY ONCE AGAIN FRIDAY AFTERNOON WITH 1 TO            
 3 INCH ACCUMS POSSIBLE WITH GENERAL WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW. NO                 
 HEADLINES PLANNED AT THIS TIME AS AMOUNTS WILL BE SPREAD OUT THROUGH           
 THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WITH 2 TO 4 AND LOCAL 5 INCH AMOUNTS EXPECTED.           
 $$                                                                             
 .LONG TERM...                                                                  
 POLAR VORTEX OVER HUDSON BAY IS FCST SIMILARLY BY THE MODELS TO                
 MOVE SOUTH ACROSS ONTARIO AND THEN NE ACROSS QUEBEC THIS WEEKEND               
 AND THEN GRADUALLY FILL AND DRIFT SLOWLY EAST TO CANADIAN MARITIMES            
 BY NEXT THU. ECMWF IS SLOWER TO WEAKEN THE UPPER LOW NEXT WEEK AND             
 IS PREFERRED IN THIS RESPECT OVER THE GFS AS SUCH A STRONG AND                 
 LARGE CIRCULATION WILL BE SLOW TO BREAK DOWN. OTRWS, OVER THE                  
 WEEKEND THE MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT. ARCTIC AIR                    
 EXPECTED TO BE ADVECTING INTO THE CWA AT START OF THE PERIOD FRI               
 NGT. WNW LOW LEVEL FLOW SHOULD RESULT IN SNOW SHOWERS ACRS SRN MI              
 AND ADJACENT COUNTIES IN NRN INDIANA AT LEAST THROUGH THE EVENING              
 WITH A WK SHRTWV PASSAGE SUPPORTING GOING CHC POPS JUST TO SOUTH               
 OF THIS AREA. ALTHOUGH LAKE INDUCED INSTABILITY WILL BE EXTREME,               
 KEPT AMOUNTS IN THE 1-3" RANGE DUE TO LOW INVERSION                            
 HEIGHT/DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE AND SHALLOW MOISTURE. ON SATURDAY A               
 REINFORCING SHOT OF THE ARCTIC AIR FCST BY BOTH THE GFS/NAM TO                 
 MOVE INTO THE AREA. SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES AS GFS ABOUT 6HRS                  
 FASTER TO MOVE THIS CDFNT THROUGH THE AREA. SIDED WITH THE SLOWER              
 NAM TIMING FOR NOW...KEEPING HIGHS IN THE TEENS WITH WK WAA                    
 EXPECTED AT DURING THE MORNING WITH CAA RETURNING IN THE AFTN. FAIRLY          
 STRONG LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG THIS FRONT SHOULD SQUEEZE OUT               
 SOME LIGHT SNOW SATURDAY, ESPECIALLY ACROSS NRN PORTIONS OF THE                
 CWA WHERE THERE WILL BE SOME LAKE ENHANCEMENT. WINDS WILL BECOME               
 BRISK ALONG AND BEHIND THE ARCTIC FRONT. THIS MAY LEAD TO SOME                 
 BLOWING/DRIFTING SNOW PROBLEMS SAT NGT BUT OPTED TO LEAVE                      
 CATEGORICAL MENTION OF THIS OUT OF ZFP ATTM. BY SUNDAY MORNING,                
 850MB TEMPS FCST TO FALL TO AROUND -25C. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN SFC             
 TEMPS FALLING BELOW ZERO OVER ALL OF THE CWA WITH THE EXCEPTION OF             
 AREA NEAR LM WITH WIND CHILL READINGS POSSIBLY BLO ADVISORY CRITERIA.          
 THIS AIRMASS LOOKS VERY SIMILAR TO THE ONE WHICH SET RECORD LOWS               
 HERE IN FEB96 (WITH 850MB TEMPS AROUND -25C), AND AS SUCH CAN SEE              
 FURTHER DOWNSIDE POTENTIAL FOR TEMPS EARLY NEXT WEEK. WITH W-WNW               
 FLOW CONTINUING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT, SNOW SHOWERS WILL LIKELY                 
 CONTINUE OVER SW MI AND ADJACENT AREAS OF NRN INDIANA. LIMITING                
 FACTORS MENTIONED PREVIOUSLY MAY KEEP SNOW ACCUMS FROM GETTING                 
 HEAVY IN ANY GIVEN PERIOD, BUT WILL LIKELY BE PERSISTENT ACCUMS.               
 GFS INDICATING FLOW WILL VEER MORE NWLY ON MONDAY AS A WK TROF                 
 MOVES THROUGH THE AREA WHICH COULD RESULT IN MORE SGFNT LAKE                   
 EFFECT SNOWS. ARCTIC AIR WILL REMAIN ENTRENCHED OVER THE AREA                  
 EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH SLOW MODIFICATION EXPECTED BY THURSDAY. LAKE              
 EFFECT SNOW CHANCES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS PERIOD WITH POPS                
 GRADUALLY PULLED NORTHWARD AS LOW LEVEL WINDS SLOWLY BACK WITH                 
 PASSAGE OF ARCTIC HIGH. 12Z GFS IS SLOWER TO MOVE THE HIGH                     
 THROUGH, CONTINUING NW FLOW THROUGH THU. FOR NOW WENT DRY ON DAY7              
 BUT IF THIS SOLUTION PERSISTS WOULD HAVE TO EXTEND LAKE EFFECT                 
 SNOW SHOWERS LONGER.                                                           
 &&                                                                             
 .IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                            
 IN...NONE.                                                                     
 MI...NONE.                                                                     
 OH...NONE.                                                                     
 LM...NONE.                                                                     
 &&                                                                             
 $$                                                                             
 SHORT TERM...LASHLEY                                                           
 LONG TERM....TAYLOR                                                            
</pre> in                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA                                       
347 PM EST THU FEB 1 2007                                                       
.SHORT TERM...                                                                  
SEVERAL MINOR CHALLENGES IN THE SHORT TERM PACKAGE. MODELS NOT                  
HANDLING OVERALL PATTERN WELL GIVEN SUBTLE SHORT WAVES AND SHALLOW              
MOISTURE. HAVE GENERALLY FOLLOWED THE NAM12 AND RUC40 ALONG WITH                
RADAR AND SATELLITE TRENDS FOR THE SHORT TERM.                                  
WATER VAPOR SHOWS POTENT ARCTIC WAVE DIVING SOUTH THROUGH CENTRAL               
CANADA THIS AFTERNOON. DOWNSTREAM FLOW RESPONDING ALREADY WITH                  
BACKING WINDS AND SOUTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPING AHEAD OF MAIN TROUGH.               
SEVERAL WEAK SHORT WAVES EMBEDDED IN THIS SOUTHWEST FLOW AND COUPLED            
WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ARE GENERATING AREAS OF LIGHT SNOW ACROSS               
THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES REGIONS. THE SOUTHWEST FLOW              
ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN IS ALSO GENERATING PERSISTENT LAKE EFFECT SNOW             
BANDS ACROSS MAINLY BERRIEN COUNTY.                                             
LATEST RADAR AND SATELLITE SHOWS A SHORT WAVE AND EMBEDDED VORTICITY            
MAX MOVING THROUGH ILLINOIS THIS AFTERNOON. KLOT AND KILX 88D ALONG             
WITH SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOWING LIGHT SNOW DEVELOPING WITH THIS               
WAVE. IT SHOULD QUICKLY MOVE NORTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON BUT LOOKS TO              
GRAZE NORTHWEST INDIANA AND SOUTHWEST MICHIGAN WITH A BRIEF PERIOD              
OF LIGHT SNOW INTO THIS EVENING. THIS SHOULD ALSO ACT TO ENHANCE LAKE           
SNOW IN BERRIEN COUNTY THIS EVENING. ANOTHER INCH OR TWO ACCUM                  
POSSIBLE THERE WITH MAYBE UP TO AN INCH AWAY FROM                               
LAKE...MAINLY NORTHWEST INDIANA AND SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN.                   
ANOTHER STRONGER WAVE MOVING THROUGH ARKANSAS THIS AFTERNOON IS                 
PROGGED BY MODELS TO STAY SOUTHEAST OF OUR AREA LATER TONIGHT.                  
HOWEVER...WATER VAPOR SEEMS TO INDICATE THIS WAVE GETTING LIFTED                
FURTHER NORTH MUCH QUICKER GIVEN UPSTREAM AMPLIFICATION FROM ARCTIC             
WAVE. WILL LEAVE LIGHT SNOW MENTION IN ALL AREAS FOR OVERNIGHT AS I             
SUSPECT WE WILL SEE LIGHT SNOW WITH THIS SYSTEM SPREAD ACROSS                   
CENTRAL AND EASTERN AREAS OVERNIGHT.                                            
FINALLY...THE ARCTIC FRONT WILL BLAST ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY MORNING            
WITH MORNING HIGHS AND FALLING AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES. 850MB TEMPS              
CRASH TO NEAR -22C IN THE NORTHWEST BY 00Z/03. INCREASING LOW LEVEL             
MOISTURE WITH ARCTIC SURGE SHOULD ONCE AGAIN ALLOW FOR LIGHT SNOW TO            
DEVELOP NEAR SURFACE FRONT. HAVE KEPT POPS IN THE CHANCE CATEGORY               
GIVEN LITTLE MOISTURE TO WORK WITH BUT HIGH LIQUID TO SNOW RATIOS.              
MAY SEE HALF INCH AMOUNTS WITH TRACE LIQUID. MID SHIFT CAN INCREASE             
AS RADAR TRENDS DICTATE BY EARLY MORNING. HAVE USED RUC40 AND NAM12             
TEMPS AND WINDS FOR FRIDAY WITH A DOWNWARD ADJUSTMENT AS THEY ARE               
LIKELY TOO SLOW WITH FALLING TEMPS. WILL ALSO SEE LAKE EFFECT SNOW              
SHOWERS INCREASE IN INTENSITY ONCE AGAIN FRIDAY AFTERNOON WITH 1 TO             
3 INCH ACCUMS POSSIBLE WITH GENERAL WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW. NO                  
HEADLINES PLANNED AT THIS TIME AS AMOUNTS WILL BE SPREAD OUT THROUGH            
THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WITH 2 TO 4 AND LOCAL 5 INCH AMOUNTS EXPECTED.            
$$                                                                              
.LONG TERM...                                                                   
POLAR VORTEX OVER HUDSON BAY IS FCST SIMILARLY BY THE MODELS TO                 
MOVE SOUTH ACROSS ONTARIO AND THEN NE ACROSS QUEBEC THIS WEEKEND                
AND THEN GRADUALLY FILL AND DRIFT SLOWLY EAST TO CANADIAN MARITIMES             
BY NEXT THU. ECMWF IS SLOWER TO WEAKEN THE UPPER LOW NEXT WEEK AND              
IS PREFERRED IN THIS RESPECT OVER THE GFS AS SUCH A STRONG AND                  
LARGE CIRCULATION WILL BE SLOW TO BREAK DOWN. OTRWS, OVER THE                   
WEEKEND THE MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT. ARCTIC AIR                     
EXPECTED TO BE ADVECTING INTO THE CWA AT START OF THE PERIOD FRI                
NGT. WNW LOW LEVEL FLOW SHOULD RESULT IN SNOW SHOWERS ACRS SRN MI               
AND ADJACENT COUNTIES IN NRN INDIANA AT LEAST THROUGH THE EVENING               
WITH A WK SHRTWV PASSAGE SUPPORTING GOING CHC POPS JUST TO SOUTH                
OF THIS AREA. ALTHOUGH LAKE INDUCED INSTABILITY WILL BE EXTREME,                
KEPT AMOUNTS IN THE 1-3" RANGE DUE TO LOW INVERSION                             
HEIGHT/DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE AND SHALLOW MOISTURE. ON SATURDAY A                
REINFORCING SHOT OF THE ARCTIC AIR FCST BY BOTH THE GFS/NAM TO                  
MOVE INTO THE AREA. SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES AS GFS ABOUT 6HRS                   
FASTER TO MOVE THIS CDFNT THROUGH THE AREA. SIDED WITH THE SLOWER               
NAM TIMING FOR NOW...KEEPING HIGHS IN THE TEENS WITH WK WAA                     
EXPECTED AT DURING THE MORNING WITH CAA RETURNING IN THE AFTN. FAIRLY           
STRONG LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG THIS FRONT SHOULD SQUEEZE OUT                
SOME LIGHT SNOW SATURDAY, ESPECIALLY ACROSS NRN PORTIONS OF THE                 
CWA WHERE THERE WILL BE SOME LAKE ENHANCEMENT. WINDS WILL BECOME                
BRISK ALONG AND BEHIND THE ARCTIC FRONT. THIS MAY LEAD TO SOME                  
BLOWING/DRIFTING SNOW PROBLEMS SAT NGT BUT OPTED TO LEAVE                       
CATEGORICAL MENTION OF THIS OUT OF ZFP ATTM. BY SUNDAY MORNING,                 
850MB TEMPS FCST TO FALL TO AROUND -25C. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN SFC              
TEMPS FALLING BELOW ZERO OVER ALL OF THE CWA WITH THE EXCEPTION OF              
AREA NEAR LM WITH WIND CHILL READINGS POSSIBLY BLO ADVISORY CRITERIA.           
THIS AIRMASS LOOKS VERY SIMILAR TO THE ONE WHICH SET RECORD LOWS                
HERE IN FEB96 (WITH 850MB TEMPS AROUND -25C), AND AS SUCH CAN SEE               
FURTHER DOWNSIDE POTENTIAL FOR TEMPS EARLY NEXT WEEK. WITH W-WNW                
FLOW CONTINUING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT, SNOW SHOWERS WILL LIKELY                  
CONTINUE OVER SW MI AND ADJACENT AREAS OF NRN INDIANA. LIMITING                 
FACTORS MENTIONED PREVIOUSLY MAY KEEP SNOW ACCUMS FROM GETTING                  
HEAVY IN ANY GIVEN PERIOD, BUT WILL LIKELY BE PERSISTENT ACCUMS.                
GFS INDICATING FLOW WILL VEER MORE NWLY ON MONDAY AS A WK TROF                  
MOVES THROUGH THE AREA WHICH COULD RESULT IN MORE SGFNT LAKE                    
EFFECT SNOWS. ARCTIC AIR WILL REMAIN ENTRENCHED OVER THE AREA                   
EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH SLOW MODIFICATION EXPECTED BY THURSDAY. LAKE               
EFFECT SNOW CHANCES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS PERIOD WITH POPS                 
GRADUALLY PULLED NORTHWARD AS LOW LEVEL WINDS SLOWLY BACK WITH                  
PASSAGE OF ARCTIC HIGH. 12Z GFS IS SLOWER TO MOVE THE HIGH                      
THROUGH, CONTINUING NW FLOW THROUGH THU. FOR NOW WENT DRY ON DAY7               
BUT IF THIS SOLUTION PERSISTS WOULD HAVE TO EXTEND LAKE EFFECT                  
SNOW SHOWERS LONGER.                                                            
&&                                                                              
.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
IN...NONE.                                                                      
MI...NONE.                                                                      
OH...NONE.                                                                      
LM...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHORT TERM...LASHLEY                                                            
LONG TERM....TAYLOR                                                             
</pre> in                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL                                      
1048 AM CST THU FEB 1 2007                                                      
.UPDATE...                                                                      
ISSUING A QUICK FORECAST UPDATE FOR TEMPS AND SKY TRENDS.  CLEARING             
LINE IS WORKING THROUGH THE CWA THIS MORNING...AND AT 1630Z WAS                 
ROUGHLY ALONG A LINE FROM KSQI TO KIRK.  AFTER A COLD START THIS                
MORNING AND WITH COLD AIR ADVECTION FOR MUCH OF TODAY...HAVE LOWERED            
MAX TEMP FORECAST DESPITE SUNNY SKIES.  CLOUDS AHEAD OF NEXT                    
SHORTWAVE/SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL REACH NRN CWA THIS                            
AFTERNOON...PUSHING THROUGH THE REST OF THE CWA OVERNIGHT.  STILL               
EXPECT FLURRIES BENEATH STRATUS DECK AS IT WORKS EWD THROUGH THE                
REST OF THE MORNING AND INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON.  HAVE LOWERED MIN             
TEMP FORECAST TONIGHT AND LIKELY WILL NEED TO LOWER IT FURTHER IN               
THE AFTERNOON FORECAST PACKAGE AS CLEAR SLOT WILL ALLOW A QUICK DROP            
IN TEMPS...AND MIN TEMP FORECASTS HAVE PERSISTENLY BEEN TOO WARM                
THIS WEEK.                                                                      
..MAYES..                                                                       
&&                                                                              
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...ISSUED AT 330 AM...                                      
COLD FRONT WAS JUST ENTERING NWRN CWA EARLY THIS MORNING.  NARROW               
BAND OF LIGHT...ACCUMULATING...SNOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT WAS STILL                
OVER THE FAR EASTERN COUNTIES EARLY THIS MORNING WITH SCATTERED                 
FLURRIES EXTENDING BACK TO THE WEST.  LOW CLOUDS  HAVE SCATTERED                
OUT CONSIDERABLY WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER AND NORTH OF I80 WITH            
DEFINITE CLEARING LINE FROM KMCW TO JUST WEST OF KDSM AT 09Z. LITTLE            
CHANGE WAS NOTED IN THE UPPER AIR PATTERN FROM THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS.           
 REGION REMAINS UNDER BROAD MID LEVEL TROF WITH SHARP H5 RIDGE                  
ANCHORED JUST OFF THE WEST COAST.  S/W TROF ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD            
FRONT OVER THE REGION THIS MORNING...EXTENDED FROM MN SW THROUGH WRN            
NE AT 00Z.  ANOTHER POTENT S/W WAS LOCATED UPSTREAM OVER NRN                    
SASKATCHEWAN AND ALBERTA.                                                       
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM...TODAY AND TONIGHT...                                              
SHORT RANGE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH RAPID SUCCESSION OF               
FRONTS MOVING THROUGH THE CWA TODAY AND TONIGHT.  FRONT CURRENTLY               
CROSSING CWA SHOULD BE EAST OF THE AREA THIS MORNING WITH ASSOCIATED            
S/W TROF REACHING THE MS RIVER BY MIDDAY.  WEAK SURFACE RIDGE TO                
CROSS CWA THIS AFTERNOON...THEN RETURN FLOW DEVELOPS FOR BRIEF TIME             
THIS EVENING INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.  NEXT S/W DROPS INTO WRN IA             
BY 12Z FRIDAY WITH SURFACE COLD FRONT PROGGED TO BE JUST WEST OF THE            
MS RIVER.  INITIAL CHALLENGE WILL CONCERN CLOUD TRENDS TODAY WITH               
BACK OF EDGE OF LOW CLOUDS ALREADY INTO CENTRAL IA...WELL EAST OF               
NAM/GFS SHOW BACK EDGE OF LOW LEVEL RH THIS MORNING.  BASED ON                  
CURRENT TRENDS AND MORE REALISTIC 925 RH PROGS OFF THE RUC...HAVE               
DECREASED SKY COVER OVER CWA CONSIDERABLY THIS MORNING...BEFORE HIGH            
CLOUDS AHEAD OF NEXT S/W SWEEP OVER CWA THIS AFTERNOON.  MAX TEMPS              
TODAY OFFER ANOTHER CHALLENGE WITH LESS CLOUDS THAN MOS SHOWS                   
FAVORING WARMER TEMPS.  HOWEVER LIGHT WINDS IN SURFACE RIDGE AND                
FRESH DUSTING OF NEW SNOW ALONG WITH LOW LEVEL CAA MOST OF THE DAY              
POINTING TO COLDER TEMPS SHOULD OFFSET ANY ADDITIONAL SUN.  KEPT MAX            
TEMPS AT OR JUST BELOW COLDER MET GUIDANCE.   NEXT S/W PROGGED TO               
MOVE THROUGH CWA BY FRIDAY.  QVECTOR CONVERGENCE SUGGESTS BEST                  
SYNOPTIC FORCING AHEAD OF TROF WILL STAY TO OUR NORTH...SO KEPT LOW             
CHANCE POPS GOING FOR TONIGHT.  SURFACE FRONT SHOULD BE ENTERING                
NORTHWEST CWA AFTER 09Z WITH STRONG NW WINDS KICKING RIGHT AFTER                
FROPA. WITH HALF INCH TO INCH OF FLUFF THAT FELL WEDNESDAY EVENING              
...FELT THAT BLSN CURRENTLY IN GRIDS WAS WORTH KEEPING.     ..DLF..             
.LONGER TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY...A RATHER VIGOROUS                
VORT COMPLEX NOW SEEN ON W/V IMAGERY WEST OF HUDSON BAY...IS STILL              
PROGGED BY LATEST SUITE OF SHORT RANGE MODEL RUNS TO ROTATE DOWN                
ACRS THE AREA IN STEEPENING CYCLONIC UPPER FLOW ON FRI AS POLAR                 
VORTEX BECOMES ENTRENCHED OVER WESTERN ONTARIO. LOW TO MID LEVEL                
SATURATION FOR MUCH OF ANYTHING TO GET WRUNG OUT BY THE INCOMING                
LIFT OTHER THAN SOME FLURRIES STILL AT QUESTION...BUT LATEST FCST               
PROFILES/SOUNDINGS SHOW ENOUGH FOR MORE OF A LIGHT SNOW AS OPPOSED              
TO SPORADIC FLURRIES THROUGH AT LEAST MIDDAY ACRS THE NORTHEAST 2/3`S           
OF THE FCST AREA. WITH EXPECTED MOMENTUM WIND SURGE/ABOVE THAT                  
ADVERTISED BY THE MODELS/ BEHIND FROPA AS ARCTIC FRONT PLOWS ITS WAY            
THRU AND EAST OF THE AREA FRI MORNING...SOME BLOWING OF THE POWDER/             
THAT COULD ACCUMULATE FROM .5 TO AN INCH BY LATE FRI MORNING/ ACRS              
ROADS AND OPEN FIELDS WILL BE LIKELY AND WILL INCLUDE WORDING FOR               
THIS IN THE GRIDS. AS FOR TEMPS...MAYBE A FEW DEGREES RECOVER FROM              
12Z VALUES DURING LATE FRI MORNING AND MIDDAY...BUT EXPECT A THERMAL            
DROP OFF AS THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES AS YET ANOTHER -20 C AND COLDER            
H85 MB COLD POOL SEEPS RIGHT OVER THE FCST AREA. WIND CHILLS DURING             
THE DAY DIP INTO THE MID TO UPPER TEENS BELOW ZERO FOR AWHILE IN THE            
NORTHWESTERN CWA...BUT DON/T QUITE REACH ADVISORY CRITERIA. THAT WILL           
CHANGE BY FRI NIGHT AS WINDS AND STOUT CAA MAINTAIN. A WIND CHILL               
ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED LATER FRI NIGHT AND INTO SAT FOR MUCH            
OF THE DVN CWA.                                                                 
AS FOR ANOTHER CLIPPER SKIRTING DOWN ACRS THE AREA FRI NIGHT...THE              
GFS IS AGAIN THE MOST BULLISH WITH LIFT AND SATURATION AND LOOKS                
OVERDONE...BUT WILL KEEP CHC POPS FOR LIGHT SNOW AFTER MIDNIGHT AND             
INTO EARLY SAT MORNING. OTHERWISE OCCASIONAL FLURRIES WILL ACCOMPANY            
AND CLOUD COVER THAT SWEEPS ON THRU IN STEEP NORTHWEST FLOW WITH ANY            
SATURATION EASILY IN THE -10 C OR COLDER RANGE. 3RD NIGHT IN A ROW              
WHERE LATEST RUN AND ACCEPTED/FAVORED MEDIUM RANGE MODEL RUNS                   
ADVERTISE MERIDIONAL FETCH FROM NORTHWEST OF THE HUDSON BAY REGION-             
ARCTIC BRINGING NEAR -30 C H85 COLD POOL DOWN NEAR THE FCST AREA SAT            
NIGHT INTO SUN. WILL CONTINUE TO MAKE MINOR TWEAKS/DOWN TRENDS IN               
BOTH HIGHS AND LOWS OVER THE WEEKEND...WITH THE CONTINUING THOUGHT OF           
AT LEAST SOME -20 F VALUES BEING REACHED IN PORTIONS OF THE FCST AREA           
EITHER SUNDAY MORNING OR MONDAY LOOKING ON TARGET. ONLY WEAKENING SFC           
WINDS WITH SOME LLVL RIDGING MAKING ITS WAY ACRS THE AREA LATER SAT             
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MAY PRECLUDE A WIND CHILL WARNING FOR THAT TIME               
PERIOD...BUT STILL NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. NO CHANGES INTO EARLY               
NEXT WEEK FOR NOW.     ..12..                                                   
&&                                                                              
.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
IA...NONE.                                                                      
IL...NONE.                                                                      
MO...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
MAYES                                                                           
</pre> ia                                                                       

 AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                       
 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL                                     
 1048 AM CST THU FEB 1 2007                                                     
 .UPDATE...                                                                     
 ISSUING A QUICK FORECAST UPDATE FOR TEMPS AND SKY TRENDS.  CLEARING            
 LINE IS WORKING THROUGH THE CWA THIS MORNING...AND AT 1630Z WAS                
 ROUGHLY ALONG A LINE FROM KSQI TO KIRK.  AFTER A COLD START THIS               
 MORNING AND WITH COLD AIR ADVECTION FOR MUCH OF TODAY...HAVE LOWERED           
 MAX TEMP FORECAST DESPITE SUNNY SKIES.  CLOUDS AHEAD OF NEXT                   
 SHORTWAVE/SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL REACH NRN CWA THIS                           
 AFTERNOON...PUSHING THROUGH THE REST OF THE CWA OVERNIGHT.  STILL              
 EXPECT FLURRIES BENEATH STRATUS DECK AS IT WORKS EWD THROUGH THE               
 REST OF THE MORNING AND INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON.  HAVE LOWERED MIN            
 TEMP FORECAST TONIGHT AND LIKELY WILL NEED TO LOWER IT FURTHER IN              
 THE AFTERNOON FORECAST PACKAGE AS CLEAR SLOT WILL ALLOW A QUICK DROP           
 IN TEMPS...AND MIN TEMP FORECASTS HAVE PERSISTENLY BEEN TOO WARM               
 THIS WEEK.                                                                     
 ..MAYES..                                                                      
 &&                                                                             
 .PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...ISSUED AT 330 AM...                                     
 COLD FRONT WAS JUST ENTERING NWRN CWA EARLY THIS MORNING.  NARROW              
 BAND OF LIGHT...ACCUMULATING...SNOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT WAS STILL               
 OVER THE FAR EASTERN COUNTIES EARLY THIS MORNING WITH SCATTERED                
 FLURRIES EXTENDING BACK TO THE WEST.  LOW CLOUDS  HAVE SCATTERED               
 OUT CONSIDERABLY WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER AND NORTH OF I80 WITH           
 DEFINITE CLEARING LINE FROM KMCW TO JUST WEST OF KDSM AT 09Z. LITTLE           
 CHANGE WAS NOTED IN THE UPPER AIR PATTERN FROM THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS.          
  REGION REMAINS UNDER BROAD MID LEVEL TROF WITH SHARP H5 RIDGE                 
 ANCHORED JUST OFF THE WEST COAST.  S/W TROF ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD           
 FRONT OVER THE REGION THIS MORNING...EXTENDED FROM MN SW THROUGH WRN           
 NE AT 00Z.  ANOTHER POTENT S/W WAS LOCATED UPSTREAM OVER NRN                   
 SASKATCHEWAN AND ALBERTA.                                                      
 &&                                                                             
 .SHORT TERM...TODAY AND TONIGHT...                                             
 SHORT RANGE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH RAPID SUCCESSION OF              
 FRONTS MOVING THROUGH THE CWA TODAY AND TONIGHT.  FRONT CURRENTLY              
 CROSSING CWA SHOULD BE EAST OF THE AREA THIS MORNING WITH ASSOCIATED           
 S/W TROF REACHING THE MS RIVER BY MIDDAY.  WEAK SURFACE RIDGE TO               
 CROSS CWA THIS AFTERNOON...THEN RETURN FLOW DEVELOPS FOR BRIEF TIME            
 THIS EVENING INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.  NEXT S/W DROPS INTO WRN IA            
 BY 12Z FRIDAY WITH SURFACE COLD FRONT PROGGED TO BE JUST WEST OF THE           
 MS RIVER.  INITIAL CHALLENGE WILL CONCERN CLOUD TRENDS TODAY WITH              
 BACK OF EDGE OF LOW CLOUDS ALREADY INTO CENTRAL IA...WELL EAST OF              
 NAM/GFS SHOW BACK EDGE OF LOW LEVEL RH THIS MORNING.  BASED ON                 
 CURRENT TRENDS AND MORE REALISTIC 925 RH PROGS OFF THE RUC...HAVE              
 DECREASED SKY COVER OVER CWA CONSIDERABLY THIS MORNING...BEFORE HIGH           
 CLOUDS AHEAD OF NEXT S/W SWEEP OVER CWA THIS AFTERNOON.  MAX TEMPS             
 TODAY OFFER ANOTHER CHALLENGE WITH LESS CLOUDS THAN MOS SHOWS                  
 FAVORING WARMER TEMPS.  HOWEVER LIGHT WINDS IN SURFACE RIDGE AND               
 FRESH DUSTING OF NEW SNOW ALONG WITH LOW LEVEL CAA MOST OF THE DAY             
 POINTING TO COLDER TEMPS SHOULD OFFSET ANY ADDITIONAL SUN.  KEPT MAX           
 TEMPS AT OR JUST BELOW COLDER MET GUIDANCE.   NEXT S/W PROGGED TO              
 MOVE THROUGH CWA BY FRIDAY.  QVECTOR CONVERGENCE SUGGESTS BEST                 
 SYNOPTIC FORCING AHEAD OF TROF WILL STAY TO OUR NORTH...SO KEPT LOW            
 CHANCE POPS GOING FOR TONIGHT.  SURFACE FRONT SHOULD BE ENTERING               
 NORTHWEST CWA AFTER 09Z WITH STRONG NW WINDS KICKING RIGHT AFTER               
 FROPA. WITH HALF INCH TO INCH OF FLUFF THAT FELL WEDNESDAY EVENING             
 ...FELT THAT BLSN CURRENTLY IN GRIDS WAS WORTH KEEPING.     ..DLF..            
 .LONGER TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY...A RATHER VIGOROUS               
 VORT COMPLEX NOW SEEN ON W/V IMAGERY WEST OF HUDSON BAY...IS STILL             
 PROGGED BY LATEST SUITE OF SHORT RANGE MODEL RUNS TO ROTATE DOWN               
 ACRS THE AREA IN STEEPENING CYCLONIC UPPER FLOW ON FRI AS POLAR                
 VORTEX BECOMES ENTRENCHED OVER WESTERN ONTARIO. LOW TO MID LEVEL               
 SATURATION FOR MUCH OF ANYTHING TO GET WRUNG OUT BY THE INCOMING               
 LIFT OTHER THAN SOME FLURRIES STILL AT QUESTION...BUT LATEST FCST              
 PROFILES/SOUNDINGS SHOW ENOUGH FOR MORE OF A LIGHT SNOW AS OPPOSED             
 TO SPORADIC FLURRIES THROUGH AT LEAST MIDDAY ACRS THE NORTHEAST 2/3`S          
 OF THE FCST AREA. WITH EXPECTED MOMENTUM WIND SURGE/ABOVE THAT                 
 ADVERTISED BY THE MODELS/ BEHIND FROPA AS ARCTIC FRONT PLOWS ITS WAY           
 THRU AND EAST OF THE AREA FRI MORNING...SOME BLOWING OF THE POWDER/            
 THAT COULD ACCUMULATE FROM .5 TO AN INCH BY LATE FRI MORNING/ ACRS             
 ROADS AND OPEN FIELDS WILL BE LIKELY AND WILL INCLUDE WORDING FOR              
 THIS IN THE GRIDS. AS FOR TEMPS...MAYBE A FEW DEGREES RECOVER FROM             
 12Z VALUES DURING LATE FRI MORNING AND MIDDAY...BUT EXPECT A THERMAL           
 DROP OFF AS THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES AS YET ANOTHER -20 C AND COLDER           
 H85 MB COLD POOL SEEPS RIGHT OVER THE FCST AREA. WIND CHILLS DURING            
 THE DAY DIP INTO THE MID TO UPPER TEENS BELOW ZERO FOR AWHILE IN THE           
 NORTHWESTERN CWA...BUT DON/T QUITE REACH ADVISORY CRITERIA. THAT WILL          
 CHANGE BY FRI NIGHT AS WINDS AND STOUT CAA MAINTAIN. A WIND CHILL              
 ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED LATER FRI NIGHT AND INTO SAT FOR MUCH           
 OF THE DVN CWA.                                                                
 AS FOR ANOTHER CLIPPER SKIRTING DOWN ACRS THE AREA FRI NIGHT...THE             
 GFS IS AGAIN THE MOST BULLISH WITH LIFT AND SATURATION AND LOOKS               
 OVERDONE...BUT WILL KEEP CHC POPS FOR LIGHT SNOW AFTER MIDNIGHT AND            
 INTO EARLY SAT MORNING. OTHERWISE OCCASIONAL FLURRIES WILL ACCOMPANY           
 AND CLOUD COVER THAT SWEEPS ON THRU IN STEEP NORTHWEST FLOW WITH ANY           
 SATURATION EASILY IN THE -10 C OR COLDER RANGE. 3RD NIGHT IN A ROW             
 WHERE LATEST RUN AND ACCEPTED/FAVORED MEDIUM RANGE MODEL RUNS                  
 ADVERTISE MERIDIONAL FETCH FROM NORTHWEST OF THE HUDSON BAY REGION-            
 ARCTIC BRINGING NEAR -30 C H85 COLD POOL DOWN NEAR THE FCST AREA SAT           
 NIGHT INTO SUN. WILL CONTINUE TO MAKE MINOR TWEAKS/DOWN TRENDS IN              
 BOTH HIGHS AND LOWS OVER THE WEEKEND...WITH THE CONTINUING THOUGHT OF          
 AT LEAST SOME -20 F VALUES BEING REACHED IN PORTIONS OF THE FCST AREA          
 EITHER SUNDAY MORNING OR MONDAY LOOKING ON TARGET. ONLY WEAKENING SFC          
 WINDS WITH SOME LLVL RIDGING MAKING ITS WAY ACRS THE AREA LATER SAT            
 NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MAY PRECLUDE A WIND CHILL WARNING FOR THAT TIME              
 PERIOD...BUT STILL NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. NO CHANGES INTO EARLY              
 NEXT WEEK FOR NOW.     ..12..                                                  
 &&                                                                             
 .DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                            
 IA...NONE.                                                                     
 IL...NONE.                                                                     
 MO...NONE.                                                                     
 &&                                                                             
 $$                                                                             
 MAYES                                                                          
</pre> ia                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL                                      
330 AM CST THU FEB 1 2007                                                       
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
COLD FRONT WAS JUST ENTERING NWRN CWA EARLY THIS MORNING.  NARROW               
BAND OF LIGHT...ACCUMULATING...SNOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT WAS STILL                
OVER THE FAR EASTERN COUNTIES EARLY THIS MORNING WITH SCATTERED                 
FLURRIES EXTENDING BACK TO THE WEST.  LOW CLOUDS  HAVE SCATTERED                
OUT CONSIDERABLY WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER AND NORTH OF I80 WITH            
DEFINITE CLEARING LINE FROM KMCW TO JUST WEST OF KDSM AT 09Z. LITTLE            
CHANGE WAS NOTED IN THE UPPER AIR PATTERN FROM THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS.           
 REGION REMAINS UNDER BROAD MID LEVEL TROF WITH SHARP H5 RIDGE                  
ANCHORED JUST OFF THE WEST COAST.  S/W TROF ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD            
FRONT OVER THE REGION THIS MORNING...EXTENDED FROM MN SW THROUGH WRN            
NE AT 00Z.  ANOTHER POTENT S/W WAS LOCATED UPSTREAM OVER NRN                    
SASKATCHEWAN AND ALBERTA.                                                       
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM...TODAY AND TONIGHT...                                              
SHORT RANGE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH RAPID SUCCESSION OF               
FRONTS MOVING THROUGH THE CWA TODAY AND TONIGHT.  FRONT CURRENTLY               
CROSSING CWA SHOULD BE EAST OF THE AREA THIS MORNING WITH ASSOCIATED            
S/W TROF REACHING THE MS RIVER BY MIDDAY.  WEAK SURFACE RIDGE TO                
CROSS CWA THIS AFTERNOON...THEN RETURN FLOW DEVELOPS FOR BRIEF TIME             
THIS EVENING INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.  NEXT S/W DROPS INTO WRN IA             
BY 12Z FRIDAY WITH SURFACE COLD FRONT PROGGED TO BE JUST WEST OF THE            
MS RIVER.  INITIAL CHALLENGE WILL CONCERN CLOUD TRENDS TODAY WITH               
BACK OF EDGE OF LOW CLOUDS ALREADY INTO CENTRAL IA...WELL EAST OF               
NAM/GFS SHOW BACK EDGE OF LOW LEVEL RH THIS MORNING.  BASED ON                  
CURRENT TRENDS AND MORE REALISTIC 925 RH PROGS OFF THE RUC...HAVE               
DECREASED SKY COVER OVER CWA CONSIDERABLY THIS MORNING...BEFORE HIGH            
CLOUDS AHEAD OF NEXT S/W SWEEP OVER CWA THIS AFTERNOON.  MAX TEMPS              
TODAY OFFER ANOTHER CHALLENGE WITH LESS CLOUDS THAN MOS SHOWS                   
FAVORING WARMER TEMPS.  HOWEVER LIGHT WINDS IN SURFACE RIDGE AND                
FRESH DUSTING OF NEW SNOW ALONG WITH LOW LEVEL CAA MOST OF THE DAY              
POINTING TO COLDER TEMPS SHOULD OFFSET ANY ADDITIONAL SUN.  KEPT MAX            
TEMPS AT OR JUST BELOW COLDER MET GUIDANCE.   NEXT S/W PROGGED TO               
MOVE THROUGH CWA BY FRIDAY.  QVECTOR CONVERGENCE SUGGESTS BEST                  
SYNOPTIC FORCING AHEAD OF TROF WILL STAY TO OUR NORTH...SO KEPT LOW             
CHANCE POPS GOING FOR TONIGHT.  SURFACE FRONT SHOULD BE ENTERING                
NORTHWEST CWA AFTER 09Z WITH STRONG NW WINDS KICKING RIGHT AFTER                
FROPA. WITH HALF INCH TO INCH OF FLUFF THAT FELL WEDNESDAY EVENING              
...FELT THAT BLSN CURRENTLY IN GRIDS WAS WORTH KEEPING.     ..DLF..             
.LONGER TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY...A RATHER VIGOROUS                
VORT COMPLEX NOW SEEN ON W/V IMAGERY WEST OF HUDSON BAY...IS STILL              
PROGGED BY LATEST SUITE OF SHORT RANGE MODEL RUNS TO ROTATE DOWN                
ACRS THE AREA IN STEEPENING CYCLONIC UPPER FLOW ON FRI AS POLAR                 
VORTEX BECOMES ENTRENCHED OVER WESTERN ONTARIO. LOW TO MID LEVEL                
SATURATION FOR MUCH OF ANYTHING TO GET WRUNG OUT BY THE INCOMING                
LIFT OTHER THAN SOME FLURRIES STILL AT QUESTION...BUT LATEST FCST               
PROFILES/SOUNDINGS SHOW ENOUGH FOR MORE OF A LIGHT SNOW AS OPPOSED              
TO SPORADIC FLURRIES THROUGH AT LEAST MIDDAY ACRS THE NORTHEAST 2/3`S           
OF THE FCST AREA. WITH EXPECTED MOMENTUM WIND SURGE/ABOVE THAT                  
ADVERTISED BY THE MODELS/ BEHIND FROPA AS ARCTIC FRONT PLOWS ITS WAY            
THRU AND EAST OF THE AREA FRI MORNING...SOME BLOWING OF THE POWDER/             
THAT COULD ACCUMULATE FROM .5 TO AN INCH BY LATE FRI MORNING/ ACRS              
ROADS AND OPEN FIELDS WILL BE LIKELY AND WILL INCLUDE WORDING FOR               
THIS IN THE GRIDS. AS FOR TEMPS...MAYBE A FEW DEGREES RECOVER FROM              
12Z VALUES DURING LATE FRI MORNING AND MIDDAY...BUT EXPECT A THERMAL            
DROP OFF AS THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES AS YET ANOTHER -20 C AND COLDER            
H85 MB COLD POOL SEEPS RIGHT OVER THE FCST AREA. WIND CHILLS DURING             
THE DAY DIP INTO THE MID TO UPPER TEENS BELOW ZERO FOR AWHILE IN THE            
NORTHWESTERN CWA...BUT DON/T QUITE REACH ADVISORY CRITERIA. THAT WILL           
CHANGE BY FRI NIGHT AS WINDS AND STOUT CAA MAINTAIN. A WIND CHILL               
ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED LATER FRI NIGHT AND INTO SAT FOR MUCH            
OF THE DVN CWA.                                                                 
AS FOR ANOTHER CLIPPER SKIRTING DOWN ACRS THE AREA FRI NIGHT...THE              
GFS IS AGAIN THE MOST BULLISH WITH LIFT AND SATURATION AND LOOKS                
OVERDONE...BUT WILL KEEP CHC POPS FOR LIGHT SNOW AFTER MIDNIGHT AND             
INTO EARLY SAT MORNING. OTHERWISE OCCASIONAL FLURRIES WILL ACCOMPANY            
AND CLOUD COVER THAT SWEEPS ON THRU IN STEEP NORTHWEST FLOW WITH ANY            
SATURATION EASILY IN THE -10 C OR COLDER RANGE. 3RD NIGHT IN A ROW              
WHERE LATEST RUN AND ACCEPTED/FAVORED MEDIUM RANGE MODEL RUNS                   
ADVERTISE MERIDIONAL FETCH FROM NORTHWEST OF THE HUDSON BAY REGION-             
ARCTIC BRINGING NEAR -30 C H85 COLD POOL DOWN NEAR THE FCST AREA SAT            
NIGHT INTO SUN. WILL CONTINUE TO MAKE MINOR TWEAKS/DOWN TRENDS IN               
BOTH HIGHS AND LOWS OVER THE WEEKEND...WITH THE CONTINUING THOUGHT OF           
AT LEAST SOME -20 F VALUES BEING REACHED IN PORTIONS OF THE FCST AREA           
EITHER SUNDAY MORNING OR MONDAY LOOKING ON TARGET. ONLY WEAKENING SFC           
WINDS WITH SOME LLVL RIDGING MAKING ITS WAY ACRS THE AREA LATER SAT             
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MAY PRECLUDE A WIND CHILL WARNING FOR THAT TIME               
PERIOD...BUT STILL NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. NO CHANGES INTO EARLY               
NEXT WEEK FOR NOW.     ..12..                                                   
&&                                                                              
.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
IA...NONE.                                                                      
IL...NONE.                                                                      
MO...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
DLF/12                                                                          
</pre> ia                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY                                             
1026 AM CST THU FEB 1 2007                                                      
.UPDATE...                                                                      
FORECAST UPDATED FOR THIS AFTERNOON TO ACCOUNT FOR RADAR TRENDS AND             
LATEST 12Z RUC AND NAM RUNS. LIGHT SNOW CONTINUES TO DIMINISH THIS              
MORNING...WITH NO RADAR OR SURFACE INDICATIONS OF PRECIP WEST OF A              
PAH TO MVN LINE AT 16Z. OCNL LIGHT SNOW WILL END OVER REMAINDER OF              
FORECAST AREA IN NEXT FEW HOURS...FOLLOWED BY NOTHING MORE THAN SCTD            
FLURRIES. NEW 12Z RUC/NAM RUNS AND LATEST RADAR AND SFC REPORTS                 
INDICATE ANY MEASURABLE SNOW WITH THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL NOT ARRIVE               
BEFORE 00Z...EXCEPT POSSIBLY OVER SE MISSOURI. CHANCE POPS FOR LATE             
AFTERNOON WILL COVER THESE AREAS.                                               
TEMPS ARE RUNNING 2 TO 3 DEGREES HIGHER THAN FORECAST. RAISED HIGHS             
2 OR 3 DEGREES MOST AREAS.                                                      
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION...                                                             
GOING FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE. AT 08Z...INITIAL BATCH OF LIGHT                   
SNOW WAS MOSTLY EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. AMOUNTS HAVE                     
GENERALLY BEEN A DUSTING TO 1/2 INCH...WITH SPOTTY 1 INCH AMOUNTS               
REPORTED. RADAR AND SATELLITE TRENDS CONFIRM THERE SHOULD BE A                  
LULL THIS MORNING IN THE LIGHT SNOW ACTIVITY. CANNOT RULE OUT SOME              
TRACE WINTRY PRECIP THIS MORNING. BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON...THE                
SECOND ROUND OF LIGHT SNOW SHOULD DEVELOP INTO SOUTHEAST MISSOURI               
AND EVENTUALLY FAR WEST KENTUCKY. THIS AREA SHOULD TRANSLATE ENE                
ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE EVENING...WITH HIGHEST POPS ACROSS                 
THE SOUTHERN 1/2 OF THE FA. THE SREF CONGLOMERATE AND NAM ARE A                 
TAD MORE AGGRESSIVE THAN THE GFS LATE TODAY. WILL TREND TOWARD THE              
SLIGHTLY QUICKER SOLUTIONS SEEN IN THE SREF / NAM OUTPUT. MODELS                
REMAIN FAIRLY CONSISTENT IN ADVERTISING UPWARDS OF 1 INCH OF SNOW               
WITH THE SECOND BATCH LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT ACROSS SOUTHERN SECTIONS           
OF THE FA. THERE MAY BE ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS OF PERHAPS 1 1/2                
INCHES OR SO. PRECIP TYPE IS STILL A QUESTION MARK ACROSS THE                   
HOPKINSVILLE AREA...EAST OF THE LAND BETWEEN THE LAKES. THE NAM                 
AND GFS BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPS ARE COOLER FOR 00Z TONIGHT THAN WHAT               
WAS SHOWN 24 HOURS AGO. 925/850MB UA CHARTS SHOW IT IS STILL VERY               
COLD OFF THE DECK. SO WE ARE THINKING MAINLY SNOW. HOWEVER WE WILL              
MAINTAIN A SMALL RAIN CHANCE WITH THE SNOW IN THE AFOREMENTIONED                
AREA LATE TODAY JUST IN CASE. FURTHER NORTH INTO SOUTHERN ILLINOIS              
AND SOUTHWEST INDIANA...THE CHANCE OF SNOW EXISTS...BUT THE                     
PROBABILITY IS LOWER. THUS OUR ACCUMULATION FORECAST FOR THIS AREA              
WILL BE LOWER AS WELL. AT THIS TIME DO NOT PLAN ON AN ADVISORY.                 
WILL CONTINUE TO HANDLE THIS EVENT WITH THE SPECIAL WEATHER                     
STATEMENT PRODUCT. WE DO EXPECT THE SNOW CHANCE TO DIMINISH FROM                
WEST TO EAST OVERNIGHT. SO WE KEPT WITH OUR GOING CHANCE OF SOME                
LINGERING VERY LIGHT SNOW OR FREEZING DRIZZLE.                                  
NO CHANGES WERE MADE BEYOND TONIGHT. STILL A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW              
FOR FRIDAY. THE NEXT SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO AFFECT THE AREA SUNDAY               
INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. THERE IS A CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW WITH THIS                    
SYSTEM. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THROUGHOUT THE SEVEN              
DAY PERIOD.                                                                     
&&                                                                              
.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
KY...NONE.                                                                      
MO...NONE.                                                                      
IL...NONE.                                                                      
IN...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
UPDATE...MY                                                                     
PREVIOUS...CN                                                                   
</pre> ky                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY                                          
1210 AM EST THU FEB 01 2007                                                     
.AVIATION DISCUSSION (06Z) TAFS...                                              
CEILINGS WILL LOWER TO MVFR CONDITIONS BY 10Z ACROSS ALL OF THE TAF             
SITES AS AN AREA OF LIGHT SNOW ARRIVES. LIGHT SNOW...WITH                       
VISIBILITIES GENERALLY REMAINING AROUND 2SM OR ABOVE WILL BEGIN AT              
BWG AFTER 6Z...SDF FROM 08-10Z AND AT LEX AND BWG AROUND 09-11Z.                
CEILINGS IN THE SNOW WILL FALL TO 2-3 THOUSAND FEET. SURFACE WINDS              
WILL REMAIN LIGHT OVERNIGHT WITH 20 KT SW FLOW AT AROUND 2000 FEET.             
LIGHT SNOW WILL CHANGE TO FLURRIES BY MID MORNING WITH ACCUMULATIONS            
REMAINING AT OR BELOW 1 INCH...BUT CEILINGS WILL REMAIN MVFR                    
THROUGHOUT TODAY. ANOTHER ROUND OF LIGHT SNOW IS EXPECTED AFTER 00Z             
FRIDAY. JSD                                                                     
&&                                                                              
.EVENING UPDATE (WEDS EVENING 9 PM)                                             
LATEST IR SATELLITE LOOP IS SHOWING SOME ENHANCEMENT IN THE CLOUD               
ELEMENTS OVER CENTRAL AND NORTHERN AR AND NRN AL ...LOOKING AT THE              
RADAR TRENDS THAT AREA...THEY ARE SHOWING SOME INCREASE IN COVERAGE             
TOO. BOTH THE CLOUDS AND PCPN ARE MOVING TO THE NORTHEAST TOWARDS               
SRN KY.                                                                         
A PRELIMINARY LOOK AT THE NEW 00Z NAM MODEL DATA IS NOT AS PROMISING            
FOR SNOWFALL. THE AIR ALOFT WAS INITIALLY QUITE DRY TODAY AND IF                
THE AIR DOESN`T BECOME SUFFICIENTLY SATURATED IN THE LOWER LEVELS...            
ANY PRECIP THAT DOES FALL WILL EVAPORATE BEFORE REACHING THE GROUND.            
THE 18Z GFS DID SHOW SUFFICIENT SATURATION AND ENOUGH SYNOPTIC LIFT             
FOR AN INCH OR TWO OF SNOWFALL ESPECIALLY DURING THE 10Z-18Z TIME               
FRAME ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN KENTUCKY. THIS MATCHES WELL WITH              
OUR SNOW ADVISORY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE FA.                        
THE LATEST RUC40 RH TRENDS SHOW A MAJOR INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL RH                
SW TO NE ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION OVERNIGHT...THIS TOO WUD                     
SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL FOR MEASURABLE SNOW LATER TONIGHT.                        
BEFORE MAKING ANY MAJOR CHANGES...WE NEED TO LOOK AT THE FULL SUITE             
OF 00Z MODEL RUNS...PLUS CHECK WITH THE NEXT HPC SNOW FCSTS AND                 
CONSIDER THEIR ANALYSIS TOO.                                                    
COORDINATED WITH JKL AND THEY WERE PLANNING TO LEAVE THEIR ADVISORY             
INTACT.                                                                         
AT THIS TIME WE ARE NOT MAKING ANY CHANGES IN THE CURRENT FCST. --21            
....PREVIOUS FCST DISCUSSIONS FOR TODAY ARE BELOW:...                           
.SHORT TERM...                                                                  
(TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)...                                             
...SNOW ADVISORY ACROSS SOUTHERN KY AND SOUTHERN BLUEGRASS...                   
SHORT-TERM FORECAST REVOLVES AROUND SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEMS AND SNOW            
ACCUMULATION CHANCES WITH EACH.                                                 
TONIGHT-MIDDAY THURS...                                                         
HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST TONIGHT...AS AN                
INVERTED TROUGH OVER THE GULF MOVES FROM TEXAS TOWARD THE CAROLINAS.            
MOISTURE IS NOT TOO IMPRESSIVE WITH THIS SYSTEM...HOWEVER THE                   
DYNAMICS ARE STRONG. SOUTHERN JET OF ROUGHLY 150 KTS OR SO WILL BE              
OVERHEAD...WITH THE CWA UNDER THE LEFT-EXIT REGION AFTER MIDNIGHT.              
AMPLE LIFT WILL THUS HELP SNOW DEVELOP AFTER MIDNIGHT TOWARD                    
MORNING. AREA SOUNDINGS INDICATE THE BEST CHANCE OF SNOW WILL BE                
BETWEEN 10-17Z. SOME HEAVIER SNOW MAY MIX IN AT TIMES GIVEN UPSTREAM            
REPORTS AND PROGGED -EPV ALOFT CO-LOCATED WITH MAX OMEGAS. BUT GIVEN            
THE LACK OF MOISTURE AND SPEED OF SYSTEM...WILL NOT GET CARRIED AWAY            
WITH SNOW AMOUNTS. THUS...WILL ISSUE A SNOW ADVSY FROM 1-2 INCHES               
POSSIBLE MAINLY SE OF A LINE FROM MORGANTOWN TO LEBANON. MAY BE A               
BIT TOO FAR NORTH WITH THE ADVY GIVEN THE NAM 18Z RUN...BUT 12Z                 
GFS/NAM AND HPC INDICATE FAR SRN KY COULD GET THESE ACCUMULATING                
SNOWS. THE BIGGER PROBLEM WILL BE TIMING NOT THE ACTUAL ACCUMS. GIVEN           
TIME OF DAY (NEAR MORNING COMMUTE TIME) FELT IT WAS WORTH BUMPING               
UP THE SPS TO AN ADVSY. WILL KEEP THE HIGHER SNOW AMOUNTS ACROSS                
THE FAR SERN CWA.                                                               
ELSEWHERE...WILL CONTINUE SPS FOR AROUND AN INCH OF ACCUMULATION.               
FEEL THAT THE THREAT IS MINIMIZED ACROSS CENTRAL KY...HOWEVER A                 
BETTER CHANCE MAY EXIST NEAR THE OHIO RIVER WITH THE DEFORMATION                
ZONE DEVELOPING FROM KC TO WICHITA. THIS SHOULD ALIGN SOMEWHERE                 
ACROSS OUR NRN CWA...POSSIBLY NEAR THE KY/IN BORDER. SNOWFALL                   
AMOUNTS WITHIN THE SPS AREA WILL BE HIGHER IN THE DEFORMATION                   
ZONE...BUT IT IS STILL EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT SNOW ONLY.                          
MAIN PRECIP WILL END BY MIDDAY (ADVY ENDS AT 18Z)...THOUGH LOW                  
CLOUDS MAY CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. WITH THIS...EVEN A FEW               
LIGHT SHOWERS/FLURRIES MAY CONTINUE INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. SFC               
TEMPS MAY INCREASE ENOUGH ACROSS THE SOUTH WHERE A CHANGEOVER TO                
LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE MAY OCCUR. HAVE A RAIN/SNOW MIX ACROSS THE                   
SOUTH FOR NOW.                                                                  
MIDDAY THURS-OVERNIGHT THURS...                                                 
SECOND WAVE IN SOUTHERN STREAM WILL QUICKLY MOVE TOWARD THE EAST                
COAST RIGHT ON THE HEELS OF THE FIRST SYSTEM. THIS SYSTEM IS MORE OF            
A CLOSED SFC LOW AS OPPOSED TO A SFC TROUGH...AND IS COMBINED WITH              
EVEN STRONGER DYNAMICS ALOFT. HOWEVER MOISTURE IS EVEN MORE                     
LACKING...BUT THE DYNAMICS ARE THERE FOR YET ANOTHER POSSIBLE                   
ADVSY SITUATION THRS NIGHT-FRI MORN. WILL LOOK MORE AT IT TONIGHT               
AND TOMORROW MORNING...BUT WILL HIT IT HARD IN THE HWO. THIS                    
LATTER SYSTEM WOULD BE MORE OF A CWA-WIDE EVENT TOO. WILL CONTINUE              
WITH ONE-INCH ACCUMS FOR NOW.                                                   
AS FAR AS TEMPS GO THROUGH THE PERIOD...WILL ONLY DROP ABOUT 5                  
DEGREES TONIGHT BEFORE CLOUDS INCREASE OVERNIGHT AND KEEP OUR TEMPS             
STEADY. TOMORROW...WILL LIKELY HEAT UP...ESPECIALLY IN THE                      
AFTERNOON. HOWEVER WILL UNDERCUT RUC13/GFS AS I FEEL THESE ARE                  
RUNNING A BIT TOO HIGH. LOW TO MID 30S LOOK LIKELY FOR HIGHS THURS.             
AL                                                                              
.LONG TERM (FRI THRU WED)...                                                    
FRI THRU SAT NGT...                                                             
SHRTWV TROF WILL BE DROPPING DOWN INTO THE UPR MS VLY/WRN GREAT                 
LAKES AT THE START OF THE PERIOD WITH MORE ENERGY ROUNDING THE BASE             
OF THE UPR LEVEL BROAD TROF TOWARD THE LOWER MS VLY. THIS ELONGATED             
AXIS OF HIER VORTICITY BECOMES INCREASINGLY SHEARED AS IT MOVES THRU            
OUR FA FRI WITH AFOREMENTIONED SHRTWV MOVG WELL TO OUR NORTH...ACRS             
THE GREAT LAKES. AFTERWARD...WE REMAIN IN A BROAD TROF THRU THE END             
OF THE PERIOD WITH ANOTHER IMPLSE APPROACHING OUR FA SAT NIGHT.                 
ASSOCIATED CDFNT WILL MOVE THRU FRI...WITH A RIDGE OF HI PRES IN ITS            
WAKE FOR FRI NIGHT AND MUCH OF SAT. WILL CONTINUE CHC POPS FOR LIGHT            
SNOW PRECEDING FRONT...MAINLY IN THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY.                     
A REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR...ASSOCIATED WITH AFOREMENTIONED                 
IMPULSE...WILL LIKELY MOVE THRU OUR FA SAT NIGHT. WILL DOWNPLAY                 
THE NAM/WRF DEEPER MOISTURE PRECEDING AND WITH FRONT AND CONT A                 
PARTLY CLOUDY FCST...CLOSER TO THE GFS.                                         
11                                                                              
SUN THRU WED...                                                                 
VERY COLD AND MAINLY DRY THRU THIS PERIOD.                                      
BROAD UPR LEVEL TROF WILL RESIDE ACRS THE OH VLY THRU LATE MON WITH             
AXIS SHIFTING INTO NEW ENGLAND TUE AND OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST                
WED. AFTER AXIS PASSAGE MON...OUR REGION WILL BE IN COLD NW FLO                 
THRU THE END OF THE PERIOD. 00Z MEDIUM RANGE MODELS AND 12Z GFS                 
ARE SIMILAR WITH SHOWING A FAST MOVG CLIPPER SYS/WEAK SFC LO                    
MOVING INTO THE LOWER OH VLY SUN NGT AND EXITING MON MORNING. THIS              
APPEARS TO BE OUR BEST CHC FOR A MEASURABLE SNOW DURING THIS                    
PERIOD WITH POSSIBLY A 1 TO 3 INCH DRY FLUFFY SNOW ACRS OUR                     
FORECAST AREA(FA)...MOSTLY OVER OUR NRN/ERN FA. TEMPS WILL BE                   
UNSEASONALLY COLD...ESPECIALLY AFTER CLIPPER PASSAGE MON WITH                   
SINGLE DIGIT READINGS MON AND TUE NGT AS ARCTIC HI PRES BUILDS                  
INTO AND OVER THE LOWER OH VLY.                                                 
AFTER POPULATING WITH HPC GRIDS FOR TUE AND WED...WILL MAKE THE                 
FOLLOWING CHGS TO TEMP GRIDS. WILL RAISE SUN NGT MINS CONSIDERABLY              
TO ACCOUNT FOR INCREASING CLOUDS/A BRIEF PERIOD OF WARM ADVECTION               
AHEAD OF CLIPPER. WILL RAISE MAXS MON A FEW DEGREES CLOSER TO                   
ENSEMBLE MEANS AND HPC AND TO AGREE BETTER WITH OUR NEIGHBORS.                  
IF WE GET AN INCH OR TWO OF SNOW COVER BEFORE THIS PERIOD AND ON SUN            
NGT AS WELL...THESE TEMPS WILL NEED TO BE ADJUSTED DOWN...IN OTHER              
WORDS...BELOW ZERO FOR MINS BEGINNING MON NGT.                                  
DK                                                                              
&&                                                                              
.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
KY...SNOW ADVISORY FROM 5 AM EST /4 AM CST/ TO 1 PM EST /12 PM CST/             
     THURSDAY FOR KYZ062>066-070>078-081-082.                                   
IN...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</pre> ky                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY                                          
945 PM EST WED JAN 31 2007                                                      
.EVENING UPDATE DISCUSSION:                                                     
LATEST IR SATELLITE LOOP IS SHOWING SOME ENHANCEMENT IN THE CLOUD               
ELEMENTS OVER CENTRAL AND NORTHERN AR AND NRN AL ...LOOKING AT THE              
RADAR TRENDS THAT AREA...THEY ARE SHOWING SOME INCREASE IN COVERAGE             
TOO. BOTH THE CLOUDS AND PCPN ARE MOVING TO THE NORTHEAST TOWARDS               
SRN KY.                                                                         
A PRELIMINARY LOOK AT THE NEW 00Z NAM MODEL DATA IS NOT AS PROMISING            
FOR SNOWFALL. THE AIR ALOFT WAS INITIALLY QUITE DRY TODAY AND IF                
THE AIR DOESN`T BECOME SUFFICIENTLY SATURATED IN THE LOWER LEVELS...            
ANY PRECIP THAT DOES FALL WILL EVAPORATE BEFORE REACHING THE GROUND.            
THE 18Z GFS DID SHOW SUFFICIENT SATURATION AND ENOUGH SYNOPTIC LIFT             
FOR AN INCH OR TWO OF SNOWFALL ESPECIALLY DURING THE 10Z-18Z TIME               
FRAME ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN KENTUCKY. THIS MATCHES WELL WITH              
OUR SNOW ADVISORY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE FA.                        
THE LATEST RUC40 RH TRENDS SHOW A MAJOR INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL RH                
SW TO NE ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION OVERNIGHT...THIS TOO WUD                     
SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL FOR MEASURABLE SNOW LATER TONIGHT.                        
BEFORE MAKING ANY MAJOR CHANGES...WE NEED TO LOOK AT THE FULL SUITE             
OF 00Z MODEL RUNS...PLUS CHECK WITH THE NEXT HPC SNOW FCSTS AND                 
CONSIDER THEIR ANALYSIS TOO.                                                    
COORDINATED WITH JKL AND THEY WERE PLANNING TO LEAVE THEIR ADVISORY             
INTACT.                                                                         
AT THIS TIME WE ARE NOT MAKING ANY CHANGES IN THE CURRENT FCST. --21            
....PREVIOUS FCST DISCUSSIONS FOR TODAY ARE BELOW:...                           
.AVIATION DISCUSSION (00Z) FCSTS...                                             
GENERAL AC CIGS 10 THSD OR ABOVE TO START OUT TAFS...WITH GRADUAL               
INCREASE IN LOW AND MID LEVEL RH DURING THE NIGHT WHICH WILL                    
EVENTUALLY LEAD TO SOME LIGHT SNOW...RIGHT NOW IT LOOKS AS THOUGH               
THE MAIN BAND OF LIGHT SNOW WILL BE ACROSS SRN KY...SO WILL                     
EVENTUALLY LOWER CIG AND VSBY CONDITIONS TO IFR FOR BWG AND MVFR FOR            
LEX AND SDF. STILL SOME DOUBT ABOUT HOW MUCH SNOW WE WILL GET. WE               
WILL HAVE TO CONTINUE TO MONITOR WX AND MODEL TRENDS CLOSELY. --21              
.SHORT TERM...                                                                  
(TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)...                                             
...SNOW ADVISORY ACROSS SOUTHERN KY AND SOUTHERN BLUEGRASS...                   
SHORT-TERM FORECAST REVOLVES AROUND SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEMS AND SNOW            
ACCUMULATION CHANCES WITH EACH.                                                 
TONIGHT-MIDDAY THURS...                                                         
HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST TONIGHT...AS AN                
INVERTED TROUGH OVER THE GULF MOVES FROM TEXAS TOWARD THE CAROLINAS.            
MOISTURE IS NOT TOO IMPRESSIVE WITH THIS SYSTEM...HOWEVER THE                   
DYNAMICS ARE STRONG. SOUTHERN JET OF ROUGHLY 150 KTS OR SO WILL BE              
OVERHEAD...WITH THE CWA UNDER THE LEFT-EXIT REGION AFTER MIDNIGHT.              
AMPLE LIFT WILL THUS HELP SNOW DEVELOP AFTER MIDNIGHT TOWARD                    
MORNING. AREA SOUNDINGS INDICATE THE BEST CHANCE OF SNOW WILL BE                
BETWEEN 10-17Z. SOME HEAVIER SNOW MAY MIX IN AT TIMES GIVEN UPSTREAM            
REPORTS AND PROGGED -EPV ALOFT CO-LOCATED WITH MAX OMEGAS. BUT GIVEN            
THE LACK OF MOISTURE AND SPEED OF SYSTEM...WILL NOT GET CARRIED AWAY            
WITH SNOW AMOUNTS. THUS...WILL ISSUE A SNOW ADVSY FROM 1-2 INCHES               
POSSIBLE MAINLY SE OF A LINE FROM MORGANTOWN TO LEBANON. MAY BE A               
BIT TOO FAR NORTH WITH THE ADVY GIVEN THE NAM 18Z RUN...BUT 12Z                 
GFS/NAM AND HPC INDICATE FAR SRN KY COULD GET THESE ACCUMULATING                
SNOWS. THE BIGGER PROBLEM WILL BE TIMING NOT THE ACTUAL ACCUMS. GIVEN           
TIME OF DAY (NEAR MORNING COMMUTE TIME) FELT IT WAS WORTH BUMPING               
UP THE SPS TO AN ADVSY. WILL KEEP THE HIGHER SNOW AMOUNTS ACROSS                
THE FAR SERN CWA.                                                               
ELSEWHERE...WILL CONTINUE SPS FOR AROUND AN INCH OF ACCUMULATION.               
FEEL THAT THE THREAT IS MINIMIZED ACROSS CENTRAL KY...HOWEVER A                 
BETTER CHANCE MAY EXIST NEAR THE OHIO RIVER WITH THE DEFORMATION                
ZONE DEVELOPING FROM KC TO WICHITA. THIS SHOULD ALIGN SOMEWHERE                 
ACROSS OUR NRN CWA...POSSIBLY NEAR THE KY/IN BORDER. SNOWFALL                   
AMOUNTS WITHIN THE SPS AREA WILL BE HIGHER IN THE DEFORMATION                   
ZONE...BUT IT IS STILL EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT SNOW ONLY.                          
MAIN PRECIP WILL END BY MIDDAY (ADVY ENDS AT 18Z)...THOUGH LOW                  
CLOUDS MAY CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. WITH THIS...EVEN A FEW               
LIGHT SHOWERS/FLURRIES MAY CONTINUE INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. SFC               
TEMPS MAY INCREASE ENOUGH ACROSS THE SOUTH WHERE A CHANGEOVER TO                
LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE MAY OCCUR. HAVE A RAIN/SNOW MIX ACROSS THE                   
SOUTH FOR NOW.                                                                  
MIDDAY THURS-OVERNIGHT THURS...                                                 
SECOND WAVE IN SOUTHERN STREAM WILL QUICKLY MOVE TOWARD THE EAST                
COAST RIGHT ON THE HEELS OF THE FIRST SYSTEM. THIS SYSTEM IS MORE OF            
A CLOSED SFC LOW AS OPPOSED TO A SFC TROUGH...AND IS COMBINED WITH              
EVEN STRONGER DYNAMICS ALOFT. HOWEVER MOISTURE IS EVEN MORE                     
LACKING...BUT THE DYNAMICS ARE THERE FOR YET ANOTHER POSSIBLE                   
ADVSY SITUATION THRS NIGHT-FRI MORN. WILL LOOK MORE AT IT TONIGHT               
AND TOMORROW MORNING...BUT WILL HIT IT HARD IN THE HWO. THIS                    
LATTER SYSTEM WOULD BE MORE OF A CWA-WIDE EVENT TOO. WILL CONTINUE              
WITH ONE-INCH ACCUMS FOR NOW.                                                   
AS FAR AS TEMPS GO THROUGH THE PERIOD...WILL ONLY DROP ABOUT 5                  
DEGREES TONIGHT BEFORE CLOUDS INCREASE OVERNIGHT AND KEEP OUR TEMPS             
STEADY. TOMORROW...WILL LIKELY HEAT UP...ESPECIALLY IN THE                      
AFTERNOON. HOWEVER WILL UNDERCUT RUC13/GFS AS I FEEL THESE ARE                  
RUNNING A BIT TOO HIGH. LOW TO MID 30S LOOK LIKELY FOR HIGHS THURS.             
AL                                                                              
.LONG TERM (FRI THRU WED)...                                                    
FRI THRU SAT NGT...                                                             
SHRTWV TROF WILL BE DROPPING DOWN INTO THE UPR MS VLY/WRN GREAT                 
LAKES AT THE START OF THE PERIOD WITH MORE ENERGY ROUNDING THE BASE             
OF THE UPR LEVEL BROAD TROF TOWARD THE LOWER MS VLY. THIS ELONGATED             
AXIS OF HIER VORTICITY BECOMES INCREASINGLY SHEARED AS IT MOVES THRU            
OUR FA FRI WITH AFOREMENTIONED SHRTWV MOVG WELL TO OUR NORTH...ACRS             
THE GREAT LAKES. AFTERWARD...WE REMAIN IN A BROAD TROF THRU THE END             
OF THE PERIOD WITH ANOTHER IMPLSE APPROACHING OUR FA SAT NIGHT.                 
ASSOCIATED CDFNT WILL MOVE THRU FRI...WITH A RIDGE OF HI PRES IN ITS            
WAKE FOR FRI NIGHT AND MUCH OF SAT. WILL CONTINUE CHC POPS FOR LIGHT            
SNOW PRECEDING FRONT...MAINLY IN THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY.                     
A REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR...ASSOCIATED WITH AFOREMENTIONED                 
IMPULSE...WILL LIKELY MOVE THRU OUR FA SAT NIGHT. WILL DOWNPLAY                 
THE NAM/WRF DEEPER MOISTURE PRECEDING AND WITH FRONT AND CONT A                 
PARTLY CLOUDY FCST...CLOSER TO THE GFS.                                         
11                                                                              
SUN THRU WED...                                                                 
VERY COLD AND MAINLY DRY THRU THIS PERIOD.                                      
BROAD UPR LEVEL TROF WILL RESIDE ACRS THE OH VLY THRU LATE MON WITH             
AXIS SHIFTING INTO NEW ENGLAND TUE AND OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST                
WED. AFTER AXIS PASSAGE MON...OUR REGION WILL BE IN COLD NW FLO                 
THRU THE END OF THE PERIOD. 00Z MEDIUM RANGE MODELS AND 12Z GFS                 
ARE SIMILAR WITH SHOWING A FAST MOVG CLIPPER SYS/WEAK SFC LO                    
MOVING INTO THE LOWER OH VLY SUN NGT AND EXITING MON MORNING. THIS              
APPEARS TO BE OUR BEST CHC FOR A MEASURABLE SNOW DURING THIS                    
PERIOD WITH POSSIBLY A 1 TO 3 INCH DRY FLUFFY SNOW ACRS OUR                     
FORECAST AREA(FA)...MOSTLY OVER OUR NRN/ERN FA. TEMPS WILL BE                   
UNSEASONALLY COLD...ESPECIALLY AFTER CLIPPER PASSAGE MON WITH                   
SINGLE DIGIT READINGS MON AND TUE NGT AS ARCTIC HI PRES BUILDS                  
INTO AND OVER THE LOWER OH VLY.                                                 
AFTER POPULATING WITH HPC GRIDS FOR TUE AND WED...WILL MAKE THE                 
FOLLOWING CHGS TO TEMP GRIDS. WILL RAISE SUN NGT MINS CONSIDERABLY              
TO ACCOUNT FOR INCREASING CLOUDS/A BRIEF PERIOD OF WARM ADVECTION               
AHEAD OF CLIPPER. WILL RAISE MAXS MON A FEW DEGREES CLOSER TO                   
ENSEMBLE MEANS AND HPC AND TO AGREE BETTER WITH OUR NEIGHBORS.                  
IF WE GET AN INCH OR TWO OF SNOW COVER BEFORE THIS PERIOD AND ON SUN            
NGT AS WELL...THESE TEMPS WILL NEED TO BE ADJUSTED DOWN...IN OTHER              
WORDS...BELOW ZERO FOR MINS BEGINNING MON NGT.                                  
DK                                                                              
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION (18Z TAFS)...                                                         
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE SDF...LEX AND BWG TAF SITES                
THROUGH THE FIRST SIX HOURS OF THIS TAF FORECAST. HIGH PRESSURE                 
OVERHEAD WILL KEEP MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT VARIABLE TO               
SOUTH WINDS...5 TO 10 MPH.                                                      
MID-LEVEL DECK WILL FILTER IN FROM THE WEST FROM 21-00Z THIS                    
EVENING. CIGS SHOULD STAY VFR UNTIL 06Z FOR BWG...AND BY 10Z AND 12Z            
FOR SDF AND LEX RESPECTIVELY...WHERE LIGHT SNOW MAY REDUCE VISBYS               
DOWN TO ONE MILE OR SO AT TIMES. ONSET OF -SN WILL BE LIGHT DUE TO              
LOWER LEVELS NOT BEING FULLY SATURATED. MAY CARRY A TEMPO FOR                   
HEAVIER SNOW FOR THE BWG TAF ROUGHLY FROM 10-14Z. ONCE SNOW                     
BEGINS...MAY TREND TOWARD LOWER END MVFR CIGS AND IFR VISBYS WITH               
THE HEAVIER SNOW SOMETIME BETWEEN 12-18Z FOR ALL TAF SITES.                     
AL                                                                              
&&                                                                              
.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
KY...SNOW ADVISORY FROM 5 AM EST /4 AM CST/ TO 1 PM EST /12 PM CST/             
     THURSDAY FOR KYZ062>066-070>078-081-082.                                   
IN...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</pre> ky                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY                                          
624 PM EST WED JAN 31 2007                                                      
.AVIATION DISCUSSION (00Z) FCSTS...                                             
GENERAL AC CIGS 10 THSD OR ABOVE TO START OUT TAFS...WITH GRADUAL               
INCREASE IN LOW AND MID LEVEL RH DURING THE NIGHT WHICH WILL                    
EVENTUALLY LEAD TO SOME LIGHT SNOW...RIGHT NOW IT LOOKS AS THOUGH               
THE MAIN BAND OF LIGHT SNOW WILL BE ACROSS SRN KY...SO WILL                     
EVENTUALLY LOWER CIG AND VSBY CONDITIONS TO IFR FOR BWG AND MVFR FOR            
LEX AND SDF. STILL SOME DOUBT ABOUT HOW MUCH SNOW WE WILL GET. WE               
WILL HAVE TO CONTINUE TO MONITOR WX AND MODEL TRENDS CLOSELY. --21              
.SHORT TERM...                                                                  
(TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)...                                             
...SNOW ADVISORY ACROSS SOUTHERN KY AND SOUTHERN BLUEGRASS...                   
SHORT-TERM FORECAST REVOLVES AROUND SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEMS AND SNOW            
ACCUMULATION CHANCES WITH EACH.                                                 
TONIGHT-MIDDAY THURS...                                                         
HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST TONIGHT...AS AN                
INVERTED TROUGH OVER THE GULF MOVES FROM TEXAS TOWARD THE CAROLINAS.            
MOISTURE IS NOT TOO IMPRESSIVE WITH THIS SYSTEM...HOWEVER THE                   
DYNAMICS ARE STRONG. SOUTHERN JET OF ROUGHLY 150 KTS OR SO WILL BE              
OVERHEAD...WITH THE CWA UNDER THE LEFT-EXIT REGION AFTER MIDNIGHT.              
AMPLE LIFT WILL THUS HELP SNOW DEVELOP AFTER MIDNIGHT TOWARD                    
MORNING. AREA SOUNDINGS INDICATE THE BEST CHANCE OF SNOW WILL BE                
BETWEEN 10-17Z. SOME HEAVIER SNOW MAY MIX IN AT TIMES GIVEN UPSTREAM            
REPORTS AND PROGGED -EPV ALOFT CO-LOCATED WITH MAX OMEGAS. BUT GIVEN            
THE LACK OF MOISTURE AND SPEED OF SYSTEM...WILL NOT GET CARRIED AWAY            
WITH SNOW AMOUNTS. THUS...WILL ISSUE A SNOW ADVSY FROM 1-2 INCHES               
POSSIBLE MAINLY SE OF A LINE FROM MORGANTOWN TO LEBANON. MAY BE A               
BIT TOO FAR NORTH WITH THE ADVY GIVEN THE NAM 18Z RUN...BUT 12Z                 
GFS/NAM AND HPC INDICATE FAR SRN KY COULD GET THESE ACCUMULATING                
SNOWS. THE BIGGER PROBLEM WILL BE TIMING NOT THE ACTUAL ACCUMS. GIVEN           
TIME OF DAY (NEAR MORNING COMMUTE TIME) FELT IT WAS WORTH BUMPING               
UP THE SPS TO AN ADVSY. WILL KEEP THE HIGHER SNOW AMOUNTS ACROSS                
THE FAR SERN CWA.                                                               
ELSEWHERE...WILL CONTINUE SPS FOR AROUND AN INCH OF ACCUMULATION.               
FEEL THAT THE THREAT IS MINIMIZED ACROSS CENTRAL KY...HOWEVER A                 
BETTER CHANCE MAY EXIST NEAR THE OHIO RIVER WITH THE DEFORMATION                
ZONE DEVELOPING FROM KC TO WICHITA. THIS SHOULD ALIGN SOMEWHERE                 
ACROSS OUR NRN CWA...POSSIBLY NEAR THE KY/IN BORDER. SNOWFALL                   
AMOUNTS WITHIN THE SPS AREA WILL BE HIGHER IN THE DEFORMATION                   
ZONE...BUT IT IS STILL EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT SNOW ONLY.                          
MAIN PRECIP WILL END BY MIDDAY (ADVY ENDS AT 18Z)...THOUGH LOW                  
CLOUDS MAY CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. WITH THIS...EVEN A FEW               
LIGHT SHOWERS/FLURRIES MAY CONTINUE INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. SFC               
TEMPS MAY INCREASE ENOUGH ACROSS THE SOUTH WHERE A CHANGEOVER TO                
LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE MAY OCCUR. HAVE A RAIN/SNOW MIX ACROSS THE                   
SOUTH FOR NOW.                                                                  
MIDDAY THURS-OVERNIGHT THURS...                                                 
SECOND WAVE IN SOUTHERN STREAM WILL QUICKLY MOVE TOWARD THE EAST                
COAST RIGHT ON THE HEELS OF THE FIRST SYSTEM. THIS SYSTEM IS MORE OF            
A CLOSED SFC LOW AS OPPOSED TO A SFC TROUGH...AND IS COMBINED WITH              
EVEN STRONGER DYNAMICS ALOFT. HOWEVER MOISTURE IS EVEN MORE                     
LACKING...BUT THE DYNAMICS ARE THERE FOR YET ANOTHER POSSIBLE                   
ADVSY SITUATION THRS NIGHT-FRI MORN. WILL LOOK MORE AT IT TONIGHT               
AND TOMORROW MORNING...BUT WILL HIT IT HARD IN THE HWO. THIS                    
LATTER SYSTEM WOULD BE MORE OF A CWA-WIDE EVENT TOO. WILL CONTINUE              
WITH ONE-INCH ACCUMS FOR NOW.                                                   
AS FAR AS TEMPS GO THROUGH THE PERIOD...WILL ONLY DROP ABOUT 5                  
DEGREES TONIGHT BEFORE CLOUDS INCREASE OVERNIGHT AND KEEP OUR TEMPS             
STEADY. TOMORROW...WILL LIKELY HEAT UP...ESPECIALLY IN THE                      
AFTERNOON. HOWEVER WILL UNDERCUT RUC13/GFS AS I FEEL THESE ARE                  
RUNNING A BIT TOO HIGH. LOW TO MID 30S LOOK LIKELY FOR HIGHS THURS.             
AL                                                                              
.LONG TERM (FRI THRU WED)...                                                    
FRI THRU SAT NGT...                                                             
SHRTWV TROF WILL BE DROPPING DOWN INTO THE UPR MS VLY/WRN GREAT                 
LAKES AT THE START OF THE PERIOD WITH MORE ENERGY ROUNDING THE BASE             
OF THE UPR LEVEL BROAD TROF TOWARD THE LOWER MS VLY. THIS ELONGATED             
AXIS OF HIER VORTICITY BECOMES INCREASINGLY SHEARED AS IT MOVES THRU            
OUR FA FRI WITH AFOREMENTIONED SHRTWV MOVG WELL TO OUR NORTH...ACRS             
THE GREAT LAKES. AFTERWARD...WE REMAIN IN A BROAD TROF THRU THE END             
OF THE PERIOD WITH ANOTHER IMPLSE APPROACHING OUR FA SAT NIGHT.                 
ASSOCIATED CDFNT WILL MOVE THRU FRI...WITH A RIDGE OF HI PRES IN ITS            
WAKE FOR FRI NIGHT AND MUCH OF SAT. WILL CONTINUE CHC POPS FOR LIGHT            
SNOW PRECEDING FRONT...MAINLY IN THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY.                     
A REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR...ASSOCIATED WITH AFOREMENTIONED                 
IMPULSE...WILL LIKELY MOVE THRU OUR FA SAT NIGHT. WILL DOWNPLAY                 
THE NAM/WRF DEEPER MOISTURE PRECEDING AND WITH FRONT AND CONT A                 
PARTLY CLOUDY FCST...CLOSER TO THE GFS.                                         
11                                                                              
SUN THRU WED...                                                                 
VERY COLD AND MAINLY DRY THRU THIS PERIOD.                                      
BROAD UPR LEVEL TROF WILL RESIDE ACRS THE OH VLY THRU LATE MON WITH             
AXIS SHIFTING INTO NEW ENGLAND TUE AND OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST                
WED. AFTER AXIS PASSAGE MON...OUR REGION WILL BE IN COLD NW FLO                 
THRU THE END OF THE PERIOD. 00Z MEDIUM RANGE MODELS AND 12Z GFS                 
ARE SIMILAR WITH SHOWING A FAST MOVG CLIPPER SYS/WEAK SFC LO                    
MOVING INTO THE LOWER OH VLY SUN NGT AND EXITING MON MORNING. THIS              
APPEARS TO BE OUR BEST CHC FOR A MEASURABLE SNOW DURING THIS                    
PERIOD WITH POSSIBLY A 1 TO 3 INCH DRY FLUFFY SNOW ACRS OUR                     
FORECAST AREA(FA)...MOSTLY OVER OUR NRN/ERN FA. TEMPS WILL BE                   
UNSEASONALLY COLD...ESPECIALLY AFTER CLIPPER PASSAGE MON WITH                   
SINGLE DIGIT READINGS MON AND TUE NGT AS ARCTIC HI PRES BUILDS                  
INTO AND OVER THE LOWER OH VLY.                                                 
AFTER POPULATING WITH HPC GRIDS FOR TUE AND WED...WILL MAKE THE                 
FOLLOWING CHGS TO TEMP GRIDS. WILL RAISE SUN NGT MINS CONSIDERABLY              
TO ACCOUNT FOR INCREASING CLOUDS/A BRIEF PERIOD OF WARM ADVECTION               
AHEAD OF CLIPPER. WILL RAISE MAXS MON A FEW DEGREES CLOSER TO                   
ENSEMBLE MEANS AND HPC AND TO AGREE BETTER WITH OUR NEIGHBORS.                  
IF WE GET AN INCH OR TWO OF SNOW COVER BEFORE THIS PERIOD AND ON SUN            
NGT AS WELL...THESE TEMPS WILL NEED TO BE ADJUSTED DOWN...IN OTHER              
WORDS...BELOW ZERO FOR MINS BEGINNING MON NGT.                                  
DK                                                                              
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION (18Z TAFS)...                                                         
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE SDF...LEX AND BWG TAF SITES                
THROUGH THE FIRST SIX HOURS OF THIS TAF FORECAST. HIGH PRESSURE                 
OVERHEAD WILL KEEP MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT VARIABLE TO               
SOUTH WINDS...5 TO 10 MPH.                                                      
MID-LEVEL DECK WILL FILTER IN FROM THE WEST FROM 21-00Z THIS                    
EVENING. CIGS SHOULD STAY VFR UNTIL 06Z FOR BWG...AND BY 10Z AND 12Z            
FOR SDF AND LEX RESPECTIVELY...WHERE LIGHT SNOW MAY REDUCE VISBYS               
DOWN TO ONE MILE OR SO AT TIMES. ONSET OF -SN WILL BE LIGHT DUE TO              
LOWER LEVELS NOT BEING FULLY SATURATED. MAY CARRY A TEMPO FOR                   
HEAVIER SNOW FOR THE BWG TAF ROUGHLY FROM 10-14Z. ONCE SNOW                     
BEGINS...MAY TREND TOWARD LOWER END MVFR CIGS AND IFR VISBYS WITH               
THE HEAVIER SNOW SOMETIME BETWEEN 12-18Z FOR ALL TAF SITES.                     
AL                                                                              
&&                                                                              
.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
KY...SNOW ADVISORY FROM 5 AM EST /4 AM CST/ TO 1 PM EST /12 PM CST/             
     THURSDAY FOR KYZ062>066-070>078-081-082.                                   
IN...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</pre> ky                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY                                             
252 PM CST WED JAN 31 2007                                                      
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...                                   
BASED ON SURFACE REPORTS...THE LEADING EDGE OF THE SNOW IS A FEW                
HOURS AHEAD OF SCHEDULE. AT 20Z...SPOTTERS REPORTED SNOW ALREADY                
BEGINNING IN CARTER AND RIPLEY COUNTIES IN SE MISSOURI. AT                      
19Z...STEADY SNOW WAS FALLING AT JBR/UNO/VIH. THE 09Z SREF AND 18Z              
RUC ARE AMONG THE FASTEST OF THE MODELS AND APPEAR TO HAVE THE BEST             
HANDLE ON TIMING.  EXPECT SNOW TO OVERSPREAD SE MISSOURI BY AROUND              
00Z...REACHING EVV AND HOP AREAS BY 06Z.                                        
RADAR RETURNS AND SURFACE OBS INDICATE SOME POCKETS OF MODERATE TO              
HEAVY SNOW...WITH VSBY ON OCCASION ONE HALF MILE OR LESS AT JBR AND             
HRO. THE SNOW IS LIKELY TO VARY IN INTENSITY...AS SHOWN BY                      
VISIBILITIES RANGING FROM 1/2 TO 7 MILES OVER NRN ARKANSAS. THIS                
AREA OF SNOW CORRELATES WELL WITH STRONG LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION               
PATTERN AND ASSOCIATED ISENTROPIC ASCENT ON 295K SURFACE. NAM/GFS               
DEPICT THIS AREA OF ASCENT SHIFTING EASTWARD ACROSS THE MID                     
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TONIGHT...EXITING THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY EARLY                
THURSDAY. HPC AND MODEL QPF GUIDANCE IS UNANIMOUS...INDICATING                  
AROUND ONE TENTH INCH OR LESS TONIGHT. THIS TRANSLATES TO GENERALLY             
AN INCH OR LESS OF SNOW. SREF INDICATES CLOSE TO ONE TENTH LIQUID               
EQUIVALENT OVER FAR WESTERN COUNTIES...WHICH MAY YIELD A COUPLE OF              
INCHES OF DRY POWDERY SNOW IN SPOTS.                                            
AFTER THE DEPARTURE OF THE MAIN PRECIP AREA EARLY THURSDAY...A 500              
MB SHORTWAVE WILL TRACK NORTHEAST FROM TEXAS. MODELS ARE NOT IN GOOD            
AGREEMENT REGARDING THE STRENGTH AND PATH OF THIS                               
SYSTEM...ESPECIALLY CONSIDERING ITS ONLY 24 TO 36 HOURS OUT. THE                
MODEL CONSENSUS IS THAT THE SHORTWAVE WILL FLATTEN OUT AS IT                    
APPROACHES THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY IN THE VICINITY OF WEST                 
TENNESSEE. THE 12Z OPERATIONAL NAM/GFS SPREAD QPF INTO SOUTHERN                 
PARTS OF MISSOURI AND WEST KENTUCKY LATE IN THE DAY WITH THIS                   
FEATURE.                                                                        
PROLONGED SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW TONIGHT AND THURSDAY WILL                    
EVENTUALLY WARM THE BOUNDARY LAYER ENOUGH THAT PRECIP TYPE IS AN                
ISSUE BY THURSDAY EVENING. SURFACE AND BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPS SHOULD              
CLIMB SLIGHTLY ABOVE FREEZING THURSDAY SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER.                 
WHILE SNOW SHOULD BE THE PREDOMINANT PRECIP TYPE DUE TO LOW FREEZING            
LEVELS...COULD NOT RULE OUT SOME RAIN IN FAR SOUTHERN COUNTIES.                 
GIVEN THE RAPID SPEED OF THE SYSTEM...12Z MODEL QPF OF UP TO ONE                
TENTH INCH OVER 6 HOURS LOOKS REASONABLE. THIS WOULD YIELD ANOTHER              
INCH OR SO. A QUICK PEEK AT THE ARRIVING 15Z SREF GUIDANCE IS                   
CONSIDERABLY FURTHER NORTH AND A LITTLE HEAVIER WITH QPF WITH THIS              
SYSTEM...VERSUS THE FURTHER SOUTH APPEARANCE OF THE 12Z OPERATIONAL             
RUNS AND 09Z SREF RUNS. WILL MAINTAIN POPS AS IS.                               
AFTER THE DEPARTURE OF THE THURSDAY EVENING SHORTWAVE...THE LOW                 
LEVEL FLOW WILL GRADUALLY TURN NORTHWEST AND BRING SOME COLDER AIR              
IN. MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE PLENTY OF LOW AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE            
LINGERING THROUGH FRIDAY. A 500 MB SHORTWAVE OVER THE FOUR CORNERS              
REGION AT 12Z FRIDAY WILL RACE EAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS                  
DURING THE DAY. THIS RESULTS IN SOME LIGHT QPF OVER OUR REGION PER              
THE NAM MODEL...AND CHANCE POPS IN GFS/NAM MOS GUIDANCE. WILL                   
INTRODUCE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR FRIDAY...ALTHOUGH FLURRIES ARE                 
ALREADY MENTIONED.                                                              
SOME PARTIAL CLEARING IS EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT AS STRONG SURFACE                
HIGH BUILDS EAST ACROSS THE PLAINS.                                             
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...                                      
MAIN CONCERN IN THE LONG TERM IS ANOTHER ARCTIC FRONT SUNDAY                    
AFTERNOON AND NIGHT.  THE 06Z AND 12Z GFS AND 06Z MREF DATA SUPPORT             
A MENTION OF LIGHT SNOW WITH THE FRONT.  THE FRONT WILL LEAD A LARGE            
1040+ SURFACE HIGH INTO THE REGION...SO THE WELL BELOW NORMAL                   
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH NEXT WEEK.  THE GFS INDICATES                
ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM MOVING TOWARD THE REGION FOR WEDNESDAY INTO                
THURSDAY.  FOR NOW DECIDED TO LEAVE IT DRY AND WAIT FOR SOME                    
CONTINUITY BEFORE INTRODUCING PRECIPITATION TO THE FORECAST.                    
&&                                                                              
.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
KY...NONE.                                                                      
MO...NONE.                                                                      
IL...NONE.                                                                      
IN...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
MY/DRS                                                                          
</pre> ky                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA                                          
958 PM CST WED JAN 31 2007                                                      
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
AREAS OF RAIN...POSSIBLY MIXED WITH A FEW IP/S...CONTINUES ACROSS               
NORTHCENTRAL/NE LA THIS EVENING...MAINLY IN ASSOCIATION OF STRONG               
ISENTROPIC ASCENT ALONG THE 295-305K SURFACES. HOWEVER...IP THREAT              
WILL BE SHORT LIVED HERE AS 00Z KSHV RAOB INDICATES THAT WEAK WARM              
ADVECTION HAS WARMED/MOISTENED THE AIR COLUMN ENOUGH BELOW 9KFT                 
SUCH THAT EVAPORATIVE COOLING IS NO LONGER BECOMING AN ISSUE FOR                
IP FORMATION. FARTHER N...SN/IP HAS TAPERED THIS EVENING AS                     
ISENTROPIC FORCING ALONG THE 295K SURFACE HAS SHIFTED E OF THE                  
REGION. BELIEVE THE REST OF THE NIGHT WILL BE SOMEWHAT                          
QUIET...UNTIL MAIN SHORTWAVE ENERGY APPROACHES THE REGION FROM THE              
W...IN ASSOCIATED WITH THE MERGING OF THE BAJA LOW WITH THE NEXT                
SHORTWAVE ROUNDING THE N STREME JET. NAM/RUC SOUNDINGS INDICATE                 
A WARM NOSE DEVELOPING AROUND 3500FT ACROSS SW/SOUTHCENTRAL AR                  
/TXK AND ELD/...SUCH THAT FROZEN HYRDROMETEORS WILL MELT ENOUGH                 
FOR A RAIN/IP MIX. HOWEVER...EXPECTING TEMPS TO REMAIN JUST ABOVE               
FREEZING OVERNIGHT AT TXK...THUS HAVE CANCELLED THE WINTER ADV.                 
FOR BOWIE AND MILLER COUNTIES. ALTHOUGH TEMPS WILL REMAIN NEAR                  
FREEZING AT ELD. HOWEVER...HAVE ENOUGH CONFIDENCE IN KEEPING A                  
WINTER WX ADVISORY OUT OF ELD FOR NOW...AS THE WINTRY MIX SHOULD                
AWAIT UNTIL AFTER 12Z THURSDAY. EVEN FORECATS SOUNDINGS HERE                    
SUPPORT CONSIDERABLE WARM NOSING AFTER 6Z AND THEREAFTER...SUCH                 
THAT ANY RAIN THAT FALLS THROUGH THE WARMER AIR WILL TEND TO                    
SLIGHTLY WARM SURFACE TEMPS/DEWPOINTS. HOWEVER...WILL ADDRESS                   
LEFTOVER WATER/ADDITIONAL LIGHT PRECIP. THAT OCCURS TONIGHT IN AN               
SPS FOR THIS AREA...AS WELL AS A COUPLE OF N LA PARISHES...AS RAWS              
REPORTS INDICATE THEM NEAR FREEZING AS WELL.                                    
ELSEWHERE...FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUPPORT A MIX OF SN/IP MIX LATE                  
ACROSS RED RIVER...MCCURTAIN...SEVIER AND HOWARD COUNTIES WITH                  
THE NEXT SHORTWAVE APPROACHING...BUT ADDITIONAL SNOW/ICE                        
ACCUMULATIONS THROUGH 12Z WILL BE LIGHT. THUS...HAVE OPTED TO                   
RETAIN THE WINTER ADV. FOR THESE AREAS...AS WELL AS                             
HEMPSTEAD/NEVADA COUNTIES AS THESE AREAS WILL REMAIN NEAR/BELOW                 
FREEZING. TOUGH CALL IN TERMS OF HOW LONG THESE AREAS WILL SUPPORT              
FROZEN PRECIP. THURSDAY...AS WARM ADVECTION REGIME                              
CONTINUES...ALTHOUGH FAR NW COUNTIES MAY SEE MIXED WINTRY PRECIP.               
FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. WARM ADVECTION MAY CHANGEOVER PRECIP. TO RAIN              
BY MIDDAY/EARLY AFTERNOON OVER HEMPSTEAD/NEVADA COUNTIES...BUT                  
WILL LET THE MID SHIFT ADDRESS THIS ISSUE. COULD STILL SEE 1-3" OF              
SNOW ACROSS N MCCURTAIN COUNTY AND POSSIBLY SEVIER/HOWARD COUNTIES              
BEFORE THE PRECIP. WANES LATE THURSDAY...WITH ICE ACCUMULATIONS OF              
ONE TENTH TO ONE QUARTER OF AN INCH ELSEWHERE IN THE ADVISORY                   
AREA...BUT THIS WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON AMOUNT OF WARMING                   
/ABOVE FREEZING/ THROUGH THE DAY.                                               
IN ALL...ADJUSTED POPS TONIGHT DOWN EXCEPT WHERE PRECIP. LINGERS CURRENTLY.     
ALSO TOOK OUT FROZEN PRECIP. MENTION THURSDAY MORNING ACROSS E TX/N LA          
S OF I-20...AND MADE MINOR TWEAKS TO THE MIN TEMPS GRIDS TONIGHT...WITH         
LITTLE CHANGE/SLOW WARMING EXPECTED OVERNIGHT.                                  
OTHERWISE...REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE. UPDATED                 
FORECAST/WSW ALREADY OUT...SPS WILL BE ISSUED SHORTLY.                          
15                                                                              
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
A LARGE AREA OF RAIN MIXED WITH ISOLATED AREAS OF LIGHT SLEET                   
WILL COVER MUCH OF DEEP EAST TEXAS ACROSS LOWER PARTS OF NORTHWEST              
LOUISIANA INTO NORTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA AND SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS.                  
LUCKILY TEMPERATURES WITHIN THIS LARGE AREA REMAIN AND SHOULD REMAIN            
BELOW FREEZING KEEPING THE PRECIPITATION LIQUID...WITH JUST A FEW               
SLEET PELLETS. LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION SHOULD ALLOW MOST OF THE                
MIXED PRECIPITATION TO BECOME MOSTLY RAIN OVER DEEP E TX AND                    
ACROSS LA BY LATE TONIGHT. THIS RAIN AREA WILL ALSO DECREASE IN                 
AREAL COVERAGE BY 01/12Z. MOST PRECIPITATION HAS ENDED OVER NORTHEAST           
TEXAS INTO SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA...SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS...AND NORTHWEST              
LOUISIANA. CEILINGS THIS EVENING HAVE BEEN RANGING FROM AROUND 1 KFT            
TO 2.5 KFT FOR MUCH OF THE FOUR STATE REGION...WITH CEILINGS ACROSS             
DEEP EAST TEXAS ACROSS LOWER SECTIONS OF NORTHWEST AND INTO                     
LOWER NORTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA RANGING FROM NEAR 4 HND TO 8 HND FEET.            
VISIBILITIES HAVE BEEN GTE 6 STATUE MILES EXCEPT IN THE HEAVIER                 
RAIN AREAS WHERE THEY HAVE LOWERED TO 1 TO 3 STATUE MILES.                      
AFTER 01/06Z TOWARD 01/12Z EXPECTING ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN TO                   
RETURN AS A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SLIDES EAST ACROSS THE GULF             
OF MEXICO AND HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED ALONG THE COAST OF THE CAROLINAS           
SHIFTS EAST. ANOTHER LOW OVER W TX WILL ADVANCE EAST. ABUNDANT MOISTURE         
RIDING OVER THE FOUR STATE REGION WILL PRODUCE RAIN AND A WINTERY               
MIX ESPECIALLY OVER PARTS OF NE TX...SE OK...AND SW AR NEAR AND ALONG           
THE INTERSTATE 30 CORRIDOR WITH MOSTLY RAIN ALONG AND NEAR THE                  
INTERSTATE 20 CORRIDOR. AFTER 01/12Z RAIN WILL BE INCREASING AND                
SPREADING AREA WIDE WITH CEILINGS FROM 4 TO 8 HND FEET. IN THE COLDER           
AREAS THERE WILL BE A MIX OF SNOW...SLEET...AND WITH EARLY START MIX            
OF FREEZING RAIN NEAR INTERSTATE 30. /06/                                       
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
SHV  35  41  35  45 /  40  90  20  10                                           
MLU  34  40  36  48 /  80  90  20  10                                           
DEQ  29  36  28  42 /  50  90  20  10                                           
TXK  33  37  31  44 /  50  90  20  10                                           
ELD  32  39  32  46 /  40  90  20  10                                           
TYR  36  42  34  45 /  50  90  10  10                                           
GGG  35  43  34  45 /  50  90  10  10                                           
LFK  39  46  38  50 /  70  90  10  10                                           
&&                                                                              
.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
AR...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM THURSDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING              
     ZONES: HEMPSTEAD...HOWARD...LITTLE RIVER...NEVADA...AND                    
     SEVIER.                                                                    
LA...NONE.                                                                      
OK...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM THURSDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING              
     ZONES: MCCURTAIN.                                                          
TX...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM THURSDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING              
     ZONES: RED RIVER.                                                          
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
15/06                                                                           
</pre> la                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
515 PM EST THU FEB 1 2007                                                       
...SEVERAL DAYS OF VERY COLD AIR EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT                
WEEK...                                                                         
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
MAIN CONCERN FOR SHORT TERMS IS HEADLINES IN EFFECT ALONG NRN TIER              
OF CWFA. SHORTWAVE MOVING EWD FROM THE NRN PLAINS WILL SWEEP THROUGH            
THE AREA TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY. THE ARCTIC BOUNDARY                      
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SHORTWAVE HAS ALREADY MOVED THROUGH WRN UPR MI             
THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL CONTINUE TO SURGE SOUTH AND EAST TONIGHT                
THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY AS THE SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH. THE BOUNDARY               
WILL THEN DRIFT BACK TO THE NORTH LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY             
NIGHT...BEFORE IT IS GETS PUSHED SOUTHWARD AGAIN BY ANOTHER                     
SHORTWAVE FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. THIS SECOND SHORTWAVE IS                   
CURRENTLY DIVING THROUGH SASKATCHEWAN AND MANITOBA ROTATING AROUND              
THE UPPER LOW OVER ERN CANADA.                                                  
LOCATIONS THAT WILL BE IMPACTED BY SIGNIFICANT LAKE ENHANCED SNOW               
TONIGHT AND FRIDAY IS TOUGH TO PIN DOWN SINCE MUCH WILL DEPEND ON               
THE BOUNDARY LAYER WIND FLOW AND ASSOC LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE. ALL               
OTHER FACTORS ARE SUGGESTING THE POTENTIAL OF A GOOD LAKE ENHANCED              
EVENT...WITH DECENT Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE...DEEP MOISTURE (APPARENT              
ON 12Z KINL SOUNDING) AND GOOD SNOW GROWTH POTENTIAL IN THE POSITIVE            
AREA OF THE CBL. THE WARNING PUT UP OVER THE KEWEENAW THIS AFTERNOON            
THROUGH SATURDAY LOOKS GOOD AS LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE WILL BE                    
MAXIMIZED FOR A LONGER PERIOD THERE. WITH THE ARCTIC BOUNDARY                   
DROPPING SOUTH THROUGH ONTONAGON AND INTO GOGEBIC COUNTY THIS                   
EVENING...WARNING POSTED THERE AS WELL WITH HEAVY LES ACCUMS TONIGHT            
INTO MIDDAY FRI. AS THE BOUNDARY LIFT BACK TO THE NORTH ON FRIDAY               
LES WILL TAPER OFF OVER GOGEBIC AND ONTONAGON COUNTIES...BUT                    
CONVERGENCE AXIS LINGERS OVER THE KEWEENAW UNTIL THE NEXT SHORTWAVE             
ARRIVES FRI NIGHT.                                                              
THE FCST WILL BE TRICKIER FOR NCNTRL AND ERN COUNTIES AS BOUNDARY               
LAYER WIND DIRECTIONS ARE SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN DUE TO POSITION OF LOW             
FCST TO DEVELOP OVER ERN LAKE SUPERIOR LATE TONIGHT. USED A BLEND OF            
THE NAM...RUC13...LOCAL 5KM WRF-ARW...AND REGIONAL GEM TO AID IN                
FCST WINDS FOR NORTH CENTRAL UPPER MICHIGAN LATE TONIGHT INTO FRI.              
THERE IS GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND ASSOCIATED             
CONVERGENCE AXIS WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA LATE TONIGHT AND LINGER                
INTO FRIDAY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...WITH THE MODELS SUGGESTING A CLOSED            
LOW DEVELOPING OVER SOUTHEAST LAKE SUPERIOR...THE BL WIND DIRECTIONS            
AND TIMING OF WIND SHIFT WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON WHERE THE LOW              
WILL BE LOCATED. FOLLOWING A BLEND OF THE RUC13 AND 18Z                         
NAM...BELIEVE A BURST OF HEAVIER SNOW WILL REACH INTO BARAGA AND MQT            
COUNTIES AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT AND THEN INTO ALGER COUNTY FRI INTO             
FRI EVENING. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY WITH THE WINDS WILL KEEP GOING               
ADVISORIES UP FOR THESE COUNTIES. LUCE AND NRN SCHOOLCRAFT COUNTIES             
WILL LIKELY NEED A HEADLINE AS WELL FOR FRI INTO FRI EVENING. LATER             
SHIFTS WILL DEFINITELY NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON THINGS...SINCE SUBTLE             
DIFFERENCES IN THE SURFACE LOW LOCATION AND WIND FIELD WILL HAVE A              
BIG IMPACT ON THE LOCATIONS IMPACTED AND PERHAPS ADVISORIES MAY BE              
NEED TO BE UPGRADED TO WARNINGS FOR A FEW COUNTIES.                             
AS THE POLAR VORTEX HEADS S...THE SHORTWAVE DIVING THROUGH                      
SASKATCHEWAN AND MANITOBA WILL MOVE THROUGH THE UPPER LAKES FRI                 
NIGHT. DEEP Q-VECT CONV AND MOISTURE ASSOC WITH THIS SHORTWAVE WILL             
BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF HVY LAKE ENHANCED SNOW TO WRN UPR MI FRI                 
NIGHT AS MODELS INDICATE ANOTHER SFC LOW DEVELOPING OVER ERN LAKE               
SUPERIOR. ENHANCED LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE FROM THIS DEVELOPING SFC               
LOW WILL HELP FOCUS LAKE ENHANCED SNOW INTO NW UPPER MI FRI NIGHT IN            
NWRLY FLOW. ALSO...MODELS INDICATE THAT AIRMASS INITIALLY WILL NOT              
BE TOO COLD TO INHIBIT SNOW GROWTH MICROPHYSICS...SO SNOW                       
ACCUMULATIONS POTENTIALLY COULD BE HVY...ESPECIALLY CONSIDERING THE             
LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE. DEVELOPMENT OF ERN LAKE SUPERIOR LOW PRES AND            
STRENGTHENING LAND BREEZE SHOULD RESULT IN WINDS BACKING ENOUGH TO              
KEEP HEAVIEST LES OFFSHORE OF THE NE FCST AREA FRI NIGHT. AS SFC LOW            
PASSES E OF THE FCST AREA ON SAT...CONVERGENT N-NW THEN SHIFTS                  
ONSHORE INTO ALGER AND LUCE COUNTIES. FOR THESE ERN COUNTIES....SNOW            
GROWTH INITIALLY MAY BE SOMEWHAT FAVORABLE ON SAT AND THERE COULD BE            
SOME ENHANCEMENT AS MODELS HINT AT A SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS ERN                
LAKE SUPERIOR. GIVEN ABOVE FACTORS/REASONING AND FACT THAT BITTER               
COLD AIRMASS WILL FOLLOW HEAVY LES INTO SUN...WILL NEED TO ISSUE A              
WINTER STORM WATCH FOR ONTONAGON AND SRN HOUGHTON COUNTIES LATE FRI             
NIGHT THROUGH SAT. WILL MAINTAIN WINTER STORM WARNING CURRENTLY IN              
EFFECT FOR NRN HOUGHTON AND KEWEENAW COUNTIES THROUGH SAT. WILL ALSO            
ISSUE A WINTER STORM WATCH FOR ALGER AND LUCE COUNTIES SAT THROUGH              
SUN.                                                                            
REST OF THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...THE COLDEST AIR OF               
THE SEASON WILL SETTLE OVER THE REGION SAT NIGHT AND INTO MON.                  
CONSENSUS OF MODELS INDICATES THAT 850MB TEMPS WILL LOWER INTO THE              
-28 TO -33C RANGE. THERE IS A VERY GOOD CHANCE THAT SOME LOCATIONS              
OVER THE W HALF OF UPPER MI (AWAY FROM LAKE SUPERIOR) MAY REMAIN BLO            
ZERO FROM FRI NIGHT THROUGH TUE MORNING. MIN TEMPS WILL LIKELY                  
PLUMMET INTO THE -10F TO -20F RANGE AWAY FROM LAKE SUPERIOR/S                   
MODERATING INFLUENCE. AS FOR LAKE EFFECT POTENTIAL...ALTHOUGH GFS               
FCST SOUNDINGS INDICATE FAIRLY MOIST CONDITIONS AND RELATIVELY HIGH             
INVERSIONS...POOR SNOWFLAKE GROWTH DUE TO VERY COLD AIRMASS WILL                
PROBABLY BE A BIG LIMITING FACTOR ON SNOW ACCUMULATIONS. IT REMAINS             
TO BE SEEN IF ENHANCED LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE FROM LAND BREEZES COULD            
YIELD HEAVIER LES OVER ONTONAGON-HOUGHTON AND ERN SHORELINE COUNTIES            
DESPITE COLD AIRMASS. EXPECTED SMALL SNOWFLAKES AND ANY ACCOMPANYING            
WIND COULD STILL BE VERY EFFECTIVE AT REDUCING VISIBILITY TO NEAR               
ZERO AT TIMES IN SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW.                                         
MODEL CONSENSUS SHOWS A SLIGHT MODERATION IN 850 MB TEMPS (AROUND               
-18C) BY WED/THU WHICH SHOULD HELP BRING DAYTIME TEMPS UP INTO                  
TEENS. LOOK FOR NIGHTTIME LOWS TO STILL FALL BELOW ZERO...ESPECIALLY            
OVER THE INTERIOR WEST HALF. SNOW GROWTH FOR LES ALONG LAKE SUPERIOR            
COUNTIES MAY BE SLIGHTLY MORE FAVORABLE AS AIRMASS MODIFIES A                   
BIT.                                                                            
&&                                                                              
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
 WINTER STORM WARNING THROUGH 6PM EST SATURDAY MIZ001-003.                      
 WINTER STORM WARNING 10 PM EST THIS EVENING THROUGH 4 PM EST                   
  FRIDAY MIZ002.                                                                
 WINTER STORM WARNING 9 PM CST THIS EVENING THROUGH 9 AM CST FRIDAY             
 MIZ009.                                                                        
 WINTER STORM WARNING MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT THROUGH 4 PM EST FRIDAY              
 MIZ084.                                                                        
 WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT THROUGH 4 PM EST                  
 FRIDAY MIZ004.                                                                 
 WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY 1 AM EST TONIGHT THROUGH 4 PM EST FRIDAY               
 MIZ005.                                                                        
 WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY 7 AM EST THROUGH 10 PM EST FRIDAY MIZ006.              
 WINTER STORM WATCH LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY                          
 MIZ002-004-084.                                                                
 WINTER STORM WATCH SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY MIZ006-007.                         
 HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING LAKE SUPERIOR.                                    
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
VOSS                                                                            
</pre> mi                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI                                     
1152 PM EST WED JAN 31 2007                                                     
.AVIATION...                                                                    
EXAMINATION OF AVAILABLE 00Z MODEL RUNS REVEALS GOOD CONTINUITY                 
WITH THE DAYTIME/18Z RUNS.                                                      
MID AND HIGH CLOUDS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL FOR MOST OF THE                         
NIGHT...WITH THE MID CLOUDS CURRENTLY THICKENING/LOWERING WITH                  
TIME IN AGREEMENT WITH MODEL SOUNDINGS AND MOISTURE TIME                        
SECTIONS. BY 09Z AT KMBS AND EARLY FORENOON AT THE OTHER TAF                    
SITES...EXPECT LOWERING CEILINGS INTO MVFR AS DEARTH OF LOW LEVEL               
MOISTURE ENDS...WITH THE NORTH AIDED BY TRAJECTORY OFF OF LAKE                  
MICHIGAN. NEARLY ADIABATIC LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES DEVELOPING                     
THURSDAY AS COLD TEMPERATURES ALOFT PROMOTE EXPECTED DIURNAL BOOST              
FOR SNOW SHOWERS. TAFS WILL CONTINUE A PROB30 GROUP BETWEEN 17Z TO              
21Z OR 18Z TO 22Z FOR MVFR VISIBILITIES IN SNOW SHOWERS. NOT                    
ENOUGH CONFIDENCE IN POTENTIAL OVERNIGHT TO MENTION ANY VISIBILITY              
RESTRICTING SNOWFALL...AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE SPARSE.                    
MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO INDICATE LOTS OF LOW LEVEL                 
MOISTURE/CLOUDS THURSDAY EVENING...THOUGH WITH LOSS OF DIURNAL                  
INFLUENCES WILL NOT MENTION ANY VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS.                        
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 434 PM EST WED JAN 31 2007                            
SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND THURSDAY                                               
OVERNIGHT LOWS LIKELY TO OCCUR SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET...ESPECIALLY                
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA WHERE CURRENT TEMPS REMAIN             
IN THE TEENS...15 AT ADRIAN. THUS...LOWEST OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE                   
EXPECTED IN THAT AREA. THEN TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO LEVEL OFF AND                 
POSSIBLY CLIMB A LITTLE OVERNIGHT UNDER A WEAK WARM AIR ADVECTION               
REGIME. THE POTENTIAL FOR SCATTERED LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ARRIVES                  
AFTER MIDNIGHT AND WILL EXIST THROUGH THURSDAY. LIMITED MOISTURE                
AND A WEAKENING SYSTEM WILL KEEP SNOW SHOWERS ON THE LIGHT SIDE                 
WITH LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATION EXPECTED. THE SAGINAW VALLEY STANDS              
TO SEE THE BEST ACTIVITY AS THAT IS THE FAVORED AREA FOR LAKE LAKE              
ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS WITHIN SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW REGIME.                         
LATEST RUC ANALYSIS/SATELLITE DATA SUPPORTS THE MODELS CONSISTENT               
FORECAST OF THE SHORT WAVE SHEARING OUT WITHIN CONFLUENT FLOW ALOFT             
OVER THE GREAT LAKES EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. UPPER                              
DIVERGENCE...WITHIN RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF DEPARTING JET STREAK...            
WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF EXTRA LIFT OVERNIGHT...MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTH            
HALF OF THE CWA. MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT THE VERY DRY 900 TO              
700 MB COLUMN OF AIR WILL THEN MOISTEN UP CONSIDERABLY DURING THE               
EARLY MORNING HOURS. BUT WITH VERY LITTLE INSTABILITY AND LACK OF               
LOW LEVEL SUPPORT...ANY SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD REMAIN ON THE TAME                  
SIDE.                                                                           
BY THE TIME BETTER LOW LEVEL SUPPORT ARRIVES ON THURSDAY...THE MID              
AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO STRIP AWAY AS THE UPPER                  
SUPPORT BECOMES SHEARED OUT. HOWEVER WITH INVERSION HEIGHTS AROUND              
800 MB ON THURSDAY NORTH OF DETROIT...LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS CANNOT             
BE RULED OUT.                                                                   
LONG TERM...                                                                    
THE PLAINS WAVE WILL HAVE SHEARED TO OUR EAST BY THURSDAY NIGHT                 
LEAVING ONLY A CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES UNTIL THE               
NEXT SYSTEM ARRIVES FROM CENTRAL CANADA ON FRIDAY. THIS FEATURE                 
LOOKS TO BE HANDLED WELL JUDGING FROM SATELLITE IMAGERY TODAY BUT IT            
IS HARD TO GET EXCITED ABOUT THE PROSPECTS FOR SNOW AS IT MOVES                 
THROUGH OUR AREA FRIDAY AFTERNOON. MID LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE AT A              
PREMIUM AS THE WAVE WILL BE CUT OFF FROM BOTH GULF AND PACIFIC                  
MOISTURE SOURCES. HOWEVER, A BOOST FROM LAKE MICHIGAN LOOKS                     
REASONABLE AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH LOWER MICHIGAN FRIDAY                
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THIS IS WORTH CHANCE/SCATTERED POPS FOR SNOW             
SHOWERS.                                                                        
OUR FIRST SURGE OF ARCTIC AIR WILL ARRIVE BEHIND THIS SYSTEM FRIDAY             
NIGHT. THE 12Z MODELS ALL SHOW 850 MB TEMPS DROPPING TO AROUND -20C             
BY SUNRISE SATURDAY MORNING. A SW COMPONENT TO THE WIND WILL                    
INITIALLY HELP WITH SINGLE DIGIT LOW TEMPERATURES, DESPITE SOME                 
CLOUD COVER, AS COLDER SURFACE AIR FLOWS AROUND THE SOUTH END OF                
LAKE MICHIGAN AND INTO OUR AREA. HOWEVER, THIS SAME SW FLOW WILL                
STRENGTHEN AND ADVECT SOMEWHAT WARMER AIR INTO THE REGION AS THE                
SURFACE HIGH DRIFTS EAST AND AHEAD OF THE NEXT WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE             
SCHEDULED TO ARRIVE ON SATURDAY. IN THIS REGARD, GUIDANCE                       
TEMPERATURES CALLING FOR HIGHS IN THE TEENS LOOK OK BUT THESE                   
READINGS WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY A 10 TO 20 MPH WIND AND WIND CHILLS             
NEAR 10 BELOW ZERO.                                                             
THERE ARE SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES IN THE 12Z MODELS ON THE HANDLING             
OF THE SATURDAY WAVE. PREFER THE FASTER SOLUTIONS, OF WHICH THE GFS             
IS ONE, AS RENEWED HEIGHT FALLS GET UNDERWAY IN CENTRAL CANADA AND              
ANCHOR THE POLAR VORTEX OVER NORTHERN ONTARIO. THIS SYSTEM WILL                 
BRING OUR BEST CHANCE OF SNOW DURING THE WEEKEND AND REPLENISH THE              
ARCTIC AIR MASS SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. THIS WILL BE THE MOST                
BRUTAL PORTION OF THE COLD OUTBREAK WHEN FACTORING IN BOTH                      
TEMPERATURE AND WIND TAKING WIND CHILL TO AROUND -20F. THE GFS                  
FORECASTS 850 MB TEMPS TO DROP DOWN NEAR -28C WHICH CORRESPONDS TO              
DAYTIME TEMPERATURES NO BETTER THAN THE SINGLE DIGITS ON SUNDAY. IN             
FACT, DAYTIME TEMPERATURES TODAY IN REGIONS OF NORTHERN CANADA SHOW             
A FEW READINGS STILL BELOW ZERO WITH SIMILAR 850 MB TEMPERATURES. IN            
ADDITION, THERE WILL LIKELY BE CONSIDERABLY MORE OF A SURFACE                   
PRESSURE TROUGH IN THE LEE OF LAKE MICHIGAN WHICH WILL DIRECT A SW              
FLOW OF LESS MODIFIED AIR INTO SE MICHIGAN. THE LAST TIME METRO                 
DETROIT HAD AT LEAST TWO CONSECUTIVE DAYS OF SINGLE DIGIT HIGH                  
TEMPERATURES WAS IN JANUARY 1994.                                               
VERY LITTLE TEMPERATURE MODERATION IS EXPECTED ON MONDAY AS THE CORE            
OF THE POLAR VORTEX MOVES OVER THE GREAT LAKES. THE GLOBAL MODELS DO            
SHOW THE VORTEX MOVING EAST BY TUESDAY BUT DEEP NW FLOW WILL                    
CONTINUE THE SUPPLY OF ARCTIC AIR THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.              
SOME MODERATION IS POSSIBLE ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS THE WIND                
BACKS TOWARD THE WEST AND NORTHWEST, PREVENTING THE LESS MODIFIED               
AIR FROM MOVING INTO THE REGION.                                                
&&                                                                              
.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
MI...NONE.                                                                      
LAKE HURON...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...LHZ421...NEARSHORE WATERS FROM              
             PORT AUSTIN TO PORT HURON...UNTIL 3 PM THURSDAY.                   
             SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS...LHZ422...                         
             UNTIL 10 AM THURSDAY.                                              
LAKE ST CLAIR...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS...UNTIL 10 AM                    
                THURSDAY.                                                       
MI WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS...                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
AVIATION...DWD                                                                  
SHORT TERM...JDS                                                                
LONG TERM....BT                                                                 
YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE            
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).                                    
</pre> mi                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI                                     
651 PM EST WED JAN 31 2007                                                      
.AVIATION...                                                                    
MID AND HIGH CLOUDS FORESEEN FOR MOST OF THE NIGHT...WITH THE MID               
CLOUDS THICKENING/LOWERING WITH TIME AS PER MODEL SOUNDINGS AND                 
MOISTURE TIME SECTIONS. TOWARD DAYBREAK AT KMBS AND EARLY FORENOON              
AT THE OTHER SITES...EXPECT LOWERING CEILINGS INTO MVFR AS DEARTH               
OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ENDS...WITH THE NORTH AIDED BY TRAJECTORY                 
OFF OF LAKE MICHIGAN. NEARLY ADIABATIC LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES                    
DEVELOPING THURSDAY AS COLD TEMPERATURES ALOFT PROMOTE EXPECT                   
DIURNAL BOOST FOR SNOW SHOWERS. TAFS ARE INDICATING A PROB30 GROUP              
BETWEEN 17Z TO 21Z OR 18Z TO 22Z FOR MVFR IN SNOW SHOWERS. NOT                  
ENOUGH CONFIDENCE IN POTENTIAL TONIGHT TO MENTION ANY                           
PRECIPITATION...AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE SPARSE.                           
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 434 PM EST WED JAN 31 2007                            
SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND THURSDAY                                               
OVERNIGHT LOWS LIKELY TO OCCUR SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET...ESPECIALLY                
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA WHERE CURRENT TEMPS REMAIN             
IN THE TEENS...15 AT ADRIAN. THUS...LOWEST OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE                   
EXPECTED IN THAT AREA. THEN TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO LEVEL OFF AND                 
POSSIBLY CLIMB A LITTLE OVERNIGHT UNDER A WEAK WARM AIR ADVECTION               
REGIME. THE POTENTIAL FOR SCATTERED LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ARRIVES                  
AFTER MIDNIGHT AND WILL EXIST THROUGH THURSDAY. LIMITED MOISTURE                
AND A WEAKENING SYSTEM WILL KEEP SNOW SHOWERS ON THE LIGHT SIDE                 
WITH LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATION EXPECTED. THE SAGINAW VALLEY STANDS              
TO SEE THE BEST ACTIVITY AS THAT IS THE FAVORED AREA FOR LAKE LAKE              
ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS WITHIN SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW REGIME.                         
LATEST RUC ANALYSIS/SATELLITE DATA SUPPORTS THE MODELS CONSISTENT               
FORECAST OF THE SHORT WAVE SHEARING OUT WITHIN CONFLUENT FLOW ALOFT             
OVER THE GREAT LAKES EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. UPPER                              
DIVERGENCE...WITHIN RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF DEPARTING JET STREAK...            
WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF EXTRA LIFT OVERNIGHT...MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTH            
HALF OF THE CWA. MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT THE VERY DRY 900 TO              
700 MB COLUMN OF AIR WILL THEN MOISTEN UP CONSIDERABLY DURING THE               
EARLY MORNING HOURS. BUT WITH VERY LITTLE INSTABILITY AND LACK OF               
LOW LEVEL SUPPORT...ANY SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD REMAIN ON THE TAME                  
SIDE.                                                                           
BY THE TIME BETTER LOW LEVEL SUPPORT ARRIVES ON THURSDAY...THE MID              
AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO STRIP AWAY AS THE UPPER                  
SUPPORT BECOMES SHEARED OUT. HOWEVER WITH INVERSION HEIGHTS AROUND              
800 MB ON THURSDAY NORTH OF DETROIT...LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS CANNOT             
BE RULED OUT.                                                                   
LONG TERM...                                                                    
THE PLAINS WAVE WILL HAVE SHEARED TO OUR EAST BY THURSDAY NIGHT                 
LEAVING ONLY A CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES UNTIL THE               
NEXT SYSTEM ARRIVES FROM CENTRAL CANADA ON FRIDAY. THIS FEATURE                 
LOOKS TO BE HANDLED WELL JUDGING FROM SATELLITE IMAGERY TODAY BUT IT            
IS HARD TO GET EXCITED ABOUT THE PROSPECTS FOR SNOW AS IT MOVES                 
THROUGH OUR AREA FRIDAY AFTERNOON. MID LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE AT A              
PREMIUM AS THE WAVE WILL BE CUT OFF FROM BOTH GULF AND PACIFIC                  
MOISTURE SOURCES. HOWEVER, A BOOST FROM LAKE MICHIGAN LOOKS                     
REASONABLE AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH LOWER MICHIGAN FRIDAY                
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THIS IS WORTH CHANCE/SCATTERED POPS FOR SNOW             
SHOWERS.                                                                        
OUR FIRST SURGE OF ARCTIC AIR WILL ARRIVE BEHIND THIS SYSTEM FRIDAY             
NIGHT. THE 12Z MODELS ALL SHOW 850 MB TEMPS DROPPING TO AROUND -20C             
BY SUNRISE SATURDAY MORNING. A SW COMPONENT TO THE WIND WILL                    
INITIALLY HELP WITH SINGLE DIGIT LOW TEMPERATURES, DESPITE SOME                 
CLOUD COVER, AS COLDER SURFACE AIR FLOWS AROUND THE SOUTH END OF                
LAKE MICHIGAN AND INTO OUR AREA. HOWEVER, THIS SAME SW FLOW WILL                
STRENGTHEN AND ADVECT SOMEWHAT WARMER AIR INTO THE REGION AS THE                
SURFACE HIGH DRIFTS EAST AND AHEAD OF THE NEXT WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE             
SCHEDULED TO ARRIVE ON SATURDAY. IN THIS REGARD, GUIDANCE                       
TEMPERATURES CALLING FOR HIGHS IN THE TEENS LOOK OK BUT THESE                   
READINGS WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY A 10 TO 20 MPH WIND AND WIND CHILLS             
NEAR 10 BELOW ZERO.                                                             
THERE ARE SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES IN THE 12Z MODELS ON THE HANDLING             
OF THE SATURDAY WAVE. PREFER THE FASTER SOLUTIONS, OF WHICH THE GFS             
IS ONE, AS RENEWED HEIGHT FALLS GET UNDERWAY IN CENTRAL CANADA AND              
ANCHOR THE POLAR VORTEX OVER NORTHERN ONTARIO. THIS SYSTEM WILL                 
BRING OUR BEST CHANCE OF SNOW DURING THE WEEKEND AND REPLENISH THE              
ARCTIC AIR MASS SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. THIS WILL BE THE MOST                
BRUTAL PORTION OF THE COLD OUTBREAK WHEN FACTORING IN BOTH                      
TEMPERATURE AND WIND TAKING WIND CHILL TO AROUND -20F. THE GFS                  
FORECASTS 850 MB TEMPS TO DROP DOWN NEAR -28C WHICH CORRESPONDS TO              
DAYTIME TEMPERATURES NO BETTER THAN THE SINGLE DIGITS ON SUNDAY. IN             
FACT, DAYTIME TEMPERATURES TODAY IN REGIONS OF NORTHERN CANADA SHOW             
A FEW READINGS STILL BELOW ZERO WITH SIMILAR 850 MB TEMPERATURES. IN            
ADDITION, THERE WILL LIKELY BE CONSIDERABLY MORE OF A SURFACE                   
PRESSURE TROUGH IN THE LEE OF LAKE MICHIGAN WHICH WILL DIRECT A SW              
FLOW OF LESS MODIFIED AIR INTO SE MICHIGAN. THE LAST TIME METRO                 
DETROIT HAD AT LEAST TWO CONSECUTIVE DAYS OF SINGLE DIGIT HIGH                  
TEMPERATURES WAS IN JANUARY 1994.                                               
VERY LITTLE TEMPERATURE MODERATION IS EXPECTED ON MONDAY AS THE CORE            
OF THE POLAR VORTEX MOVES OVER THE GREAT LAKES. THE GLOBAL MODELS DO            
SHOW THE VORTEX MOVING EAST BY TUESDAY BUT DEEP NW FLOW WILL                    
CONTINUE THE SUPPLY OF ARCTIC AIR THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.              
SOME MODERATION IS POSSIBLE ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS THE WIND                
BACKS TOWARD THE WEST AND NORTHWEST, PREVENTING THE LESS MODIFIED               
AIR FROM MOVING INTO THE REGION.                                                
&&                                                                              
.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
MI...NONE.                                                                      
LAKE HURON...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...LHZ421...NEARSHORE WATERS FROM              
             PORT AUSTIN TO PORT HURON...UNTIL 3 PM THURSDAY.                   
             SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS...LHZ422...                         
             UNTIL 10 AM THURSDAY.                                              
LAKE ST CLAIR...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS...UNTIL 10 AM                    
                THURSDAY.                                                       
MI WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS...                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
AVIATION...DWD                                                                  
SHORT TERM...JDS                                                                
LONG TERM....BT                                                                 
YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE            
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).                                    
</pre> mi                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI                                     
434 PM EST WED JAN 31 2007                                                      
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND THURSDAY                                              
OVERNIGHT LOWS LIKELY TO OCCUR SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET...ESPECIALLY                
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA WHERE CURRENT TEMPS REMAIN             
IN THE TEENS...15 AT ADRIAN. THUS...LOWEST OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE                   
EXPECTED IN THAT AREA. THEN TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO LEVEL OFF AND                 
POSSIBLY CLIMB A LITTLE OVERNIGHT UNDER A WEAK WARM AIR ADVECTION               
REGIME. THE POTENTIAL FOR SCATTERED LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ARRIVES                  
AFTER MIDNIGHT AND WILL EXIST THROUGH THURSDAY. LIMITED MOISTURE                
AND A WEAKENING SYSTEM WILL KEEP SNOW SHOWERS ON THE LIGHT SIDE                 
WITH LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATION EXPECTED. THE SAGINAW VALLEY STANDS              
TO SEE THE BEST ACTIVITY AS THAT IS THE FAVORED AREA FOR LAKE LAKE              
ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS WITHIN SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW REGIME.                         
LATEST RUC ANALYSIS/SATELLITE DATA SUPPORTS THE MODELS CONSISTENT               
FORECAST OF THE SHORT WAVE SHEARING OUT WITHIN CONFLUENT FLOW ALOFT             
OVER THE GREAT LAKES EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. UPPER                              
DIVERGENCE...WITHIN RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF DEPARTING JET STREAK...            
WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF EXTRA LIFT OVERNIGHT...MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTH            
HALF OF THE CWA. MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT THE VERY DRY 900 TO              
700 MB COLUMN OF AIR WILL THEN MOISTEN UP CONSIDERABLY DURING THE               
EARLY MORNING HOURS. BUT WITH VERY LITTLE INSTABILITY AND LACK OF               
LOW LEVEL SUPPORT...ANY SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD REMAIN ON THE TAME                  
SIDE.                                                                           
BY THE TIME BETTER LOW LEVEL SUPPORT ARRIVES ON THURSDAY...THE MID              
AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO STRIP AWAY AS THE UPPER                  
SUPPORT BECOMES SHEARED OUT. HOWEVER WITH INVERSION HEIGHTS AROUND              
800 MB ON THURSDAY NORTH OF DETROIT...LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS CANNOT             
BE RULED OUT.                                                                   
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM...THE PLAINS WAVE WILL HAVE SHEARED TO OUR EAST BY THURSDAY NIGHT    
LEAVING ONLY A CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES UNTIL THE               
NEXT SYSTEM ARRIVES FROM CENTRAL CANADA ON FRIDAY. THIS FEATURE                 
LOOKS TO BE HANDLED WELL JUDGING FROM SATELLITE IMAGERY TODAY BUT IT            
IS HARD TO GET EXCITED ABOUT THE PROSPECTS FOR SNOW AS IT MOVES                 
THROUGH OUR AREA FRIDAY AFTERNOON. MID LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE AT A              
PREMIUM AS THE WAVE WILL BE CUT OFF FROM BOTH GULF AND PACIFIC                  
MOISTURE SOURCES. HOWEVER, A BOOST FROM LAKE MICHIGAN LOOKS                     
REASONABLE AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH LOWER MICHIGAN FRIDAY                
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THIS IS WORTH CHANCE/SCATTERED POPS FOR SNOW             
SHOWERS.                                                                        
OUR FIRST SURGE OF ARCTIC AIR WILL ARRIVE BEHIND THIS SYSTEM FRIDAY             
NIGHT. THE 12Z MODELS ALL SHOW 850 MB TEMPS DROPPING TO AROUND -20C             
BY SUNRISE SATURDAY MORNING. A SW COMPONENT TO THE WIND WILL                    
INITIALLY HELP WITH SINGLE DIGIT LOW TEMPERATURES, DESPITE SOME                 
CLOUD COVER, AS COLDER SURFACE AIR FLOWS AROUND THE SOUTH END OF                
LAKE MICHIGAN AND INTO OUR AREA. HOWEVER, THIS SAME SW FLOW WILL                
STRENGTHEN AND ADVECT SOMEWHAT WARMER AIR INTO THE REGION AS THE                
SURFACE HIGH DRIFTS EAST AND AHEAD OF THE NEXT WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE             
SCHEDULED TO ARRIVE ON SATURDAY. IN THIS REGARD, GUIDANCE                       
TEMPERATURES CALLING FOR HIGHS IN THE TEENS LOOK OK BUT THESE                   
READINGS WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY A 10 TO 20 MPH WIND AND WIND CHILLS             
NEAR 10 BELOW ZERO.                                                             
THERE ARE SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES IN THE 12Z MODELS ON THE HANDLING             
OF THE SATURDAY WAVE. PREFER THE FASTER SOLUTIONS, OF WHICH THE GFS             
IS ONE, AS RENEWED HEIGHT FALLS GET UNDERWAY IN CENTRAL CANADA AND              
ANCHOR THE POLAR VORTEX OVER NORTHERN ONTARIO. THIS SYSTEM WILL                 
BRING OUR BEST CHANCE OF SNOW DURING THE WEEKEND AND REPLENISH THE              
ARCTIC AIR MASS SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. THIS WILL BE THE MOST                
BRUTAL PORTION OF THE COLD OUTBREAK WHEN FACTORING IN BOTH                      
TEMPERATURE AND WIND TAKING WIND CHILL TO AROUND -20F. THE GFS                  
FORECASTS 850 MB TEMPS TO DROP DOWN NEAR -28C WHICH CORRESPONDS TO              
DAYTIME TEMPERATURES NO BETTER THAN THE SINGLE DIGITS ON SUNDAY. IN             
FACT, DAYTIME TEMPERATURES TODAY IN REGIONS OF NORTHERN CANADA SHOW             
A FEW READINGS STILL BELOW ZERO WITH SIMILAR 850 MB TEMPERATURES. IN            
ADDITION, THERE WILL LIKELY BE CONSIDERABLY MORE OF A SURFACE                   
PRESSURE TROUGH IN THE LEE OF LAKE MICHIGAN WHICH WILL DIRECT A SW              
FLOW OF LESS MODIFIED AIR INTO SE MICHIGAN. THE LAST TIME METRO                 
DETROIT HAD AT LEAST TWO CONSECUTIVE DAYS OF SINGLE DIGIT HIGH                  
TEMPERATURES WAS IN JANUARY 1994.                                               
VERY LITTLE TEMPERATURE MODERATION IS EXPECTED ON MONDAY AS THE CORE            
OF THE POLAR VORTEX MOVES OVER THE GREAT LAKES. THE GLOBAL MODELS DO            
SHOW THE VORTEX MOVING EAST BY TUESDAY BUT DEEP NW FLOW WILL                    
CONTINUE THE SUPPLY OF ARCTIC AIR THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.              
SOME MODERATION IS POSSIBLE ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS THE WIND                
BACKS TOWARD THE WEST AND NORTHWEST, PREVENTING THE LESS MODIFIED               
AIR FROM MOVING INTO THE REGION.                                                
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...ISSUED AT 104 PM EST                                                
SOUTHWEST FLOW AND WEAK WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO                     
SUPPORT MID CLOUDS TODAY. MARINE CLOUDS TO CONTINUE                             
THIS AFTERNOON AT THE FNT AND MBS TERMINALS...WITH MVFR CEILINGS                
EXPECTED PERIODICALLY. MVFR CEILINGS TO MOVE IN AGAIN AND BECOME                
MORE WIDESPREAD AFTER MIDNIGHT...IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE APPROACH               
OF A WEAK CLIPPER SYSTEM. MVFR CEILINGS ARE THEN EXPECTED TO                    
REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THIS TAF PERIOD. THERE WILL BE SCATTERED                
LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS AROUND ON THURSDAY. SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW TO                    
PROVIDE FNT AND MBS WITH AN OPPORTUNITY FOR SOME LAKE ENHANCED                  
SNOW SHOWERS...THUS THE REASONING FOR A PERIOD OF MVFR                          
VISIBILITIES IN THAT AREA.                                                      
&&                                                                              
.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
MI...NONE.                                                                      
LAKE HURON...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...LHZ421...NEARSHORE WATERS FROM PORT AUSTIN T
     THURSDAY.                                                                  
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS...LHZ422 UNTIL 10 AM THURSDAY.              
LAKE ST CLAIR...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS...LCZ460 UNTIL 10 AM THURSDAY.   
MI WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS...UNTIL 10 AM THURSDAY. 
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHORT TERM...JDS                                                                
LONG TERM....BT                                                                 
AVIATION...JDS                                                                  
YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE            
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).                                    
</pre> mi                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN                              
335 PM CST THU FEB 1 2007                                                       
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
EARLY AFTERNOON SURFACE OBS ILLUSTRATE THE COLD FRONT STRETCHING FROM           
LAKE SUPERIOR TO THE TWIN CITIES AND FAIRMONT...WHILE WATER VAPOR               
IMAGERY SHOWS A MID LEVEL TROUGH PLUNGING INTO THE NORTHERN                     
PLAINS. ASSOCIATED LIGHT SNOW CORRELATES WELL WITH RUC PROGGED                  
700-500MB Q VECTOR CONVERGENCE AND ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE ON THE GFS                
280K SURFACE. THESE FEATURES...ALONG WITH WEAK 850-750MB 2D                     
FRONTOGENESIS...SWING EAST/SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE FORECAST THIS                   
EVENING AND TONIGHT. WHILE FORECAST POPS ARE HIGH...ACCUMULATIONS               
WILL BE LIGHT AND GENERALLY UNDER AN INCH.                                      
STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION AND PRESSURE RISES WILL ENSUE TONIGHT IN              
THE WAKE OF THE FRONT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS WESTERN AND SOUTH                     
CENTRAL MINNESOTA. BRISK WINDS SUSTAINED IN THE 15 TO 25 MPH RANGE              
WITH GUSTS TO 30 MPH WILL PERSIST TONIGHT. EXPECT CLOUDS TO                     
PARTIALLY SCATTER OUT TONIGHT...WITH TEMPERATURES PLUMMETING TO                 
BETWEEN ZERO AND 10 BELOW. HAVE LEANED TOWARD THE COLD SIDE OF                  
NUMERICAL GUIDANCE...DUE TO THE EXPECTED SCATTERING TREND. THE                  
COMBINATION OF BREEZY WINDS AND SUB-ZERO TEMPS WILL YIELD WIND                  
CHILLS READINGS IN THE 25-35 BELOW RANGE ACROSS THE WESTERN THREE               
QUARTERS OF THE CWA THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING...WHERE/WHEN AN                      
ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED. EXPECT A RESPITE FROM ADVISORY LEVEL                  
/-25 AND BELOW/ WIND CHILL VALUES ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON...BUT                     
SUBSEQUENT WIND CHILL HEADLINES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED OVER THE                  
WEEKEND FOR THE EVENING-MORNING TIMEFRAMES.                                     
ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE/FRONT WILL ARRIVE FRIDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT...WHERE         
30 POPS HAVE BEEN MAINTAINED. SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE                  
MINIMAL DUE TO THE WEAK NATURE OF THE LIFT ACCOMPANYING THIS WAVE.              
925MB TEMPERATURES DROP TO -24C TO -26C BY SATURDAY AND STAY                    
INTO NEXT WEEK. MOST LOCATIONS WILL NOT RISE ABOVE THE ZERO DEGREE              
MARK FOR THE ENTIRE WEEKEND. A BROAD TROUGH WILL PLAGUE THE                     
EASTERN HALF OF THE CONUS INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. WHILE HIGH              
TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE GRADUALLY EACH DAY NEXT WEEK...LOW                   
TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE IN THE 10 TO 15 BELOW RANGE THROUGH                  
WEDNESDAY.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
MN...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 12 PM CST FRIDAY            
     FOR ANOKA-BENTON-BLUE EARTH-BROWN-CARVER-CHIPPEWA-DAKOTA-                  
     DOUGLAS-FARIBAULT-FREEBORN-HENNEPIN-ISANTI-KANABEC-                        
     KANDIYOHI-LAC QUI PARLE-LE SUEUR-MARTIN-MCLEOD-MEEKER-MILLE                
     LACS-MORRISON-NICOLLET-POPE-RAMSEY-REDWOOD-RENVILLE-RICE-                  
     SCOTT-SHERBURNE-SIBLEY-STEARNS-STEELE-STEVENS-SWIFT-TODD-                  
     WASECA-WATONWAN-WRIGHT-YELLOW MEDICINE COUNTY(IES).                        
WI...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
LS                                                                              
</pre> mn                                                                       

 AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                       
 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN                             
 335 PM CST THU FEB 1 2007                                                      
 .DISCUSSION...                                                                 
 EARLY AFTERNOON SURFACE OBS ILLUSTRATE THE COLD FRONT STRETCHING FROM          
 LAKE SUPERIOR TO THE TWIN CITIES AND FAIRMONT...WHILE WATER VAPOR              
 IMAGERY SHOWS A MID LEVEL TROUGH PLUNGING INTO THE NORTHERN                    
 PLAINS. ASSOCIATED LIGHT SNOW CORRELATES WELL WITH RUC PROGGED                 
 700-500MB Q VECTOR CONVERGENCE AND ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE ON THE GFS               
 280K SURFACE. THESE FEATURES...ALONG WITH WEAK 850-750MB 2D                    
 FRONTOGENESIS...SWING EAST/SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE FORECAST THIS                  
 EVENING AND TONIGHT. WHILE FORECAST POPS ARE HIGH...ACCUMULATIONS              
 WILL BE LIGHT AND GENERALLY UNDER AN INCH.                                     
 STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION AND PRESSURE RISES WILL ENSUE TONIGHT IN             
 THE WAKE OF THE FRONT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS WESTERN AND SOUTH                    
 CENTRAL MINNESOTA. BRISK WINDS SUSTAINED IN THE 15 TO 25 MPH RANGE             
 WITH GUSTS TO 30 MPH WILL PERSIST TONIGHT. EXPECT CLOUDS TO                    
 PARTIALLY SCATTER OUT TONIGHT...WITH TEMPERATURES PLUMMETING TO                
 BETWEEN ZERO AND 10 BELOW. HAVE LEANED TOWARD THE COLD SIDE OF                 
 NUMERICAL GUIDANCE...DUE TO THE EXPECTED SCATTERING TREND. THE                 
 COMBINATION OF BREEZY WINDS AND SUB-ZERO TEMPS WILL YIELD WIND                 
 CHILLS READINGS IN THE 25-35 BELOW RANGE ACROSS THE WESTERN THREE              
 QUARTERS OF THE CWA THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING...WHERE/WHEN AN                     
 ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED. EXPECT A RESPITE FROM ADVISORY LEVEL                 
 /-25 AND BELOW/ WIND CHILL VALUES ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON...BUT                    
 SUBSEQUENT WIND CHILL HEADLINES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED OVER THE                 
 WEEKEND FOR THE EVENING-MORNING TIMEFRAMES.                                    
 ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE/FRONT WILL ARRIVE FRIDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT...WHERE        
 30 POPS HAVE BEEN MAINTAINED. SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE                 
 MINIMAL DUE TO THE WEAK NATURE OF THE LIFT ACCOMPANYING THIS WAVE.             
 925MB TEMPERATURES DROP TO -24C TO -26C BY SATURDAY AND STAY                   
 INTO NEXT WEEK. MOST LOCATIONS WILL NOT RISE ABOVE THE ZERO DEGREE             
 MARK FOR THE ENTIRE WEEKEND. A BROAD TROUGH WILL PLAGUE THE                    
 EASTERN HALF OF THE CONUS INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. WHILE HIGH             
 TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE GRADUALLY EACH DAY NEXT WEEK...LOW                  
 TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE IN THE 10 TO 15 BELOW RANGE THROUGH                 
 WEDNESDAY.                                                                     
 &&                                                                             
 .MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                            
 MN...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 12 PM CST FRIDAY           
      FOR ANOKA-BENTON-BLUE EARTH-BROWN-CARVER-CHIPPEWA-DAKOTA-                 
      DOUGLAS-FARIBAULT-FREEBORN-HENNEPIN-ISANTI-KANABEC-                       
      KANDIYOHI-LAC QUI PARLE-LE SUEUR-MARTIN-MCLEOD-MEEKER-MILLE               
      LACS-MORRISON-NICOLLET-POPE-RAMSEY-REDWOOD-RENVILLE-RICE-                 
      SCOTT-SHERBURNE-SIBLEY-STEARNS-STEELE-STEVENS-SWIFT-TODD-                 
      WASECA-WATONWAN-WRIGHT-YELLOW MEDICINE COUNTY(IES).                       
 WI...NONE.                                                                     
 &&                                                                             
 $$                                                                             
 LS                                                                             
</pre> mn                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN                              
335 PM CST WED JAN 31 2007                                                      
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
BAND OF SNOW WITH FAIRLY SIG 850-700 MB THETA E ADVECTION AS                    
DEPICTED BUT RUC HAS MOSTLY MOVED OFF INTO WI BUT REMAINS OF UPPER TROF         
MOVING ACROSS REST OF AREA THIS EVENING. FAIRLY SIG TROP LOWERING               
WITH THIS TROF..AND SIMILAR FORCING WILL BE MOVING INTO THE AREA                
BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND AGAIN FRIDAY AFTERNOON. WILL FOLLOW THE               
GFS ON TIMING AND IS VERY CLOSE TO ECMWF/UKMET. THE FIRST BLAST OF              
COLD AIR ARRIVES THURSDAY NIGHT...BUT THE STRONGER SURGE WILL BE                
FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH MORE DANGEROUS WIND CHILLS. THE UPPER JET WILL              
BE CLOSER TO THE AXIS OF STRONG LOW LEVEL COLD ADVECTION ON                     
FRIDAY NIGHT. STILL MAY NEED AN ADVISORY IN WESTERN CWA ON THURSDAY             
NIGHT WITH THE COLD ADVECTION/WIND CHILLS/BLOWING SNOW POTENTIAL.               
THE LIKELY POPS STILL LOOK GOOD FOR THE TROUGH THURSDAY                         
AFTERNOON/NIGHT BUT WILL SPEED UP THE ONSET A BIT. HAVE PAINTED                 
IN A SMALL POP/ABOVE GUID/ FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT BASED ON                  
THE ABOVE MENTIONED FORCING AS WELL. THE ARCTIC AIR REMAINS                     
ENTRENCHED FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEK WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.              
HAVE DECREASED CLOUD COVER DRAMATICALLY IN THE SKY GRIDS WITH THE               
ARCTIC AIR IN PLACE.                                                            
&&                                                                              
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
MN...NONE.                                                                      
WI...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
JPR                                                                             
</pre> mn                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS                                             
830 PM CST WED JAN 31 2007                                                      
.DISCUSSION...SO FAR THE FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK. AFTER AN EARLIER              
UPDATE TO EXPAND THE ADV AREA FOR THREE MORE COUNTIES THE FORECAST              
HAS GONE ABOUT AS EXPECTED. MOST PLACES ACROSS NRN MS AND SERN AR               
HAVE REPORTED SLEET WITH EVEN SOME LIGHT SN AT THE ONSET. THE WAY               
EVERYTHING IS GOING WE WILL LIKELY NEED TO SEE THE INTENSITY PICK UP            
BEFORE WE START TO SEE ANY ISSUES ACROSS OUR NORTH. THIS WILL LIKELY            
HAPPEN IN A FEW HRS AS HEAVIER BANDS OF PRECIP HAVE BEEN WORKING NE             
THROUGH WRN LOUISIANA FROM THE COAST. LOOK FOR THESE BANDS TO MOVE              
INTO THE DELTA AREA AROUND 4Z WITH MODERATE SLEET...SNOW TO START.              
IT STILL LOOKS LIKE THE SRN 2/3RDS OF THE CWA WILL ALL TRANSITION TO            
LIQUID AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE NRN 3RD COULD BECOME TRICKY AS THE LL                
WARM PROVIDING MORE OF A CONCERN FOR FZRA AFTER MIDNIGHT. THIS IS               
ESPECIALLY SO NORTH OF THE HWY 82 CORRIDOR AROUND LOCATIONS LIKE                
CLEVELAND AND GRENADA WHERE THE RUC SNDGS SHOW THE POSSIBILITY OF               
FZRA FOR A 3 TO 6 HRS. WILL KEEP AN EYE ON THIS TO SEE IF ANY                   
UPDATES NEED TO BE MADE TO THE FORECAST AND ADV. NO UPDATE NEEDED TO            
THE ZFP OR GRIDS AT THIS TIME. /CAB/                                            
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION...ADVISORY ISSUED FOR NRN TIER ZONES FOR WINTER                
WEATHER TONIGHT. WILL SEE A RAIN/SLEET MIX AS FAR SOUTH AS                      
INTERSTATE 20 TONIGHT BUT THE BEST CHANCE FOR LIGHT ACCUMULATION                
WILL BE IN THE COLDEST AIR THAT SITS ALONG THE NRN EDGE OF THE                  
FORECAST AREA.                                                                  
A COLD AND VERY DRY AIR MASS HAS SETTLED OVER THE REGION.                       
EVAPORATIVE COOLING WILL PRODUCE FREEZING TEMPERATURES AT AND JUST              
ABOVE THE SURFACE OVER NRN ZONES AT THE ONSET OF PRECIP THIS                    
EVENING. FREEZING TEMPERATURES IN THE ADVISORY AREA...FROM CLEVELAND            
TO COLUMBUS...WILL BE DEEP ENOUGH FOR A MIXTURE OF SNOW AND SLEET               
EARLY TONIGHT. THE TIER FURTHER S WILL SEE RAIN AND SLEET MIXED WITH            
SNOW AND FREEZING RAIN BUT LITTLE OR NO ACCUMULATION OF WINTER                  
PRECIP IS EXPECTED. WET BULB ZERO TEMPS WILL HOVER IN A LAYER ABOVE             
THE SURFACE INTO CENTRAL ZONES RESULTING IN THE POSSIBILITY OF A                
RAIN AND SLEET MIXTURE INTO THE I-20 CORRIDOR BUT SLEET WILL MELT               
RAPIDLY ON CONTACT WITH THE GROUND. THE ADVECTION OF WARMER AIR                 
AROUND 850 MB AND COOLING OF LOWER LEVELS NEAR THE SURFACE AFTER THE            
ONSET OF RAIN HAS REQUIRED A VARIED PATTERN OF WEATHER TYPES FROM               
NORTH TO SOUTH FOR TONIGHT. DIFFERENCES IN FORECAST                             
TEMPERATURES...ESPECIALLY AT THE SURFACE...OF ONLY A DEGREE OR TWO              
WILL MEAN A POTENTIAL CHANGE IN THE WEATHER TYPE FOR MANY NRN AND               
CENTRAL ZONES. PRECIP HAS DEVELOPED OVER WRN ZONES THIS AFTERNOON               
WITH RAIN/SLEET MIXTURE ALREADY REPORTED OVER NE LA. TEMPERATURES               
WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE BY MIDNIGHT OVER MOST AREAS WHEN THE AIR                 
COLUMN BEGINS TO MOISTEN AND EVAPORATIVE COOLING IS SHUT DOWN. WE               
WILL MAINTAIN A CHANCE OF A RAIN/SLEET MIX FOR AREAS ALONG AND N OF             
THE HIGHWAY 82 CORRIDOR AFTER MIDNIGHT BUT MOST OTHER AREAS WILL SEE            
PRECIP TURN TO ALL RAIN BY OR SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT.                           
RAIN WILL BE WIDESPREAD OVER THE FORECAST AREA BY SUNRISE THURSDAY              
AND TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE FREEZING ACROSS THE REGION. THE                  
SURFACE TROUGH LIFTS INTO SRN ZONES BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON...                    
POSITIONING THE ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT IN SE MS BY 18Z. WILL MAINTAIN            
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS THOSE AREAS TOMORROW AFTERNOON BUT THE TRACK            
LOOKS TOO FAR S TO SUPPORT ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR SEVERE CONVECTION.            
UNDERCUT MOS HIGH TEMPS SLIGHTLY FOR TOMORROW CONSIDERING RAIN                  
SHIELD AND SRN EXTENT OF SURFACE TROUGH.                                        
THE BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA BY THURSDAY                   
EVENING. BEHIND THIS SYSTEM...SFC HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT                  
PLAINS STATES WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST.              
ISENTROPIC ANALYSIS AT THE 285-295K LEVEL AND REMAINING MOISTURE                
(PWATS AROUND 0.5-0.8 INCH) SHOW A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS FOR                
FRIDAY...MAINLY IN THE MORNING. WENT AHEAD AND STAYED WITH GUI FOR              
THU NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING.  ANY SHOWERS WILL NOT LAST LONG AS             
THE ECMWF AND GFS BOTH SHOW HIGH PRESSURE AND NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT              
TAKING OVER THE REGION TO START CLEARING OVER THE ARKLAMISS BY                  
SATURDAY AFTERNOON.  THE ARCTIC AIRMASS THAT IS MOVING INTO THE                 
REGION WILL COMBINE WITH CLEAR SKIES TO ALLOW LOW TEMPERATURES TO               
AGAIN DIP DOWN INTO THE 20S FOR THE END OF THE WEEKEND INTO THE                 
BEGINNING OF THE WORK WEEK.  THE MAIN CHANGES MADE TO TEMPERATURES              
WERE TO LOWER JUST A BIT ON FRIDAY NIGHT.  SKIES WILL BE CLEARING AS            
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN...AND 925MB TEMPS LOOK TO RANGE FROM 0C TO               
-8C FOR THIS TIME PERIOD.  DECIDED TO JUST BUMP TEMPERATURES DOWN A             
DEGREE OR TWO FOR THIS TIME PERIOD.                                             
FOR THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST (PAST SATURDAY NIGHT)...NO             
MAJOR CHANGES WERE NECESSARY.  THE PREVIOUS LONG TERM DISCUSSION                
FOLLOWS. /14/                                                                   
PREVIOUS LONG TERM DISCUSSION...THE DOMINANT HUDSON BAY LOW PATTERN             
WILL CONTINUE TO BRING SEVERAL COLD EPISODES FOR THE NEXT ONE TO TWO            
WEEKS IN MOSTLY DRY NORTHWEST FLOW. WITHOUT MUCH TO FOCUS ON                    
PRECIP-WISE...THE PRIMARY FORECAST QUESTIONS CONCERN THE INTENSITY              
OF COLD AS THE FORECAST AREA WILL EXIST ON THE SRN EDGE OF THE POLAR            
VORTEX. AT THIS TIME...IT LOOKS AS IF THE CENTER OF COLD AIR                    
ANOMALIES WILL STAY NORTH OF THE REGION...BUT THE NEXT FEW SURGES OF            
COLD AIR WILL BE SHALLOW AND OF TRUE ARCTIC ORIGINS FROM NEAR THE               
NORTH POLE. GIVEN RECENT GFS PERFORMANCES WITH SUCH AIRMASSES...HAVE            
OPTED TO TREND TOWARD COOLER GFS MEAN ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE AND CUT MEX             
GUIDANCE FROM FRIDAY NIGHT ONWARD (AT LEAST FOR PORTIONS OF THE                 
FORECAST AREA). /EC/                                                            
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...WIDESPREAD WINTER PRECIP WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION             
THIS EVENING ALONG AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 20 WITH THE BEST COVERAGE            
OVER AREAS ALONG AND NORTH OF HIGHWAY 82. HAVE RECEIVED REPORTS OF              
SLEET OVER NE LA AND TVR THIS AFTERNOON AS INITIAL PRECIP AREA MOVES            
IN. CLOUD HEIGHTS WILL GRADUALLY DROP AS PRECIP INCREASES IN                    
COVERAGE AND INTENSITY TONIGHT WITH MVFR CONDITIONS MANY LOCATIONS              
BY MIDNIGHT AND IFR CONDITIONS BY SUNRISE.                                      
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
JACKSON       36  45  36  51 /  98  97  25  16                                  
MERIDIAN      35  49  37  53 / 100  96  33  16                                  
VICKSBURG     36  42  37  50 /  96  89  25  17                                  
HATTIESBURG   40  53  39  57 / 100  99  29  16                                  
NATCHEZ       38  46  34  53 /  98  91  22  16                                  
GREENVILLE    32  38  33  43 /  99  95  39  18                                  
GREENWOOD     30  39  34  46 / 100  97  37  18                                  
&&                                                                              
.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
MS...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST THURSDAY FOR MSZ018-019-            
     025>034.                                                                   
LA...NONE.                                                                      
AR...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST THURSDAY FOR ARZ074-075.            
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
03/14                                                                           
</pre> ms                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS                                             
725 PM CST WED JAN 31 2007                                                      
.DISCUSSION...DOING A QUICK UPDATE TO INCLUDE EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN              
ARKANSAS AND WASHINGTON COUNTY IN THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY.                  
CURRENT OBS AND RUC DATA SHOWS THAT FROZEN PRECIP MAY BECOME MORE OF            
A PROBLEM IN THOSE AREAS. RUC IS NOW SHOWING THE WET BULB ZERO LINE             
SOUTH TO THE LA BORDER AND DUE EAST ACROSS CENTRAL MS. DECENT PRECIP            
IS CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS THE DELTA WITH ANOTHER BATCH OF PRECIP               
HOT ON ITS HEELS. THIS WILL LIKELY CAUSE HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS ON                
BRIDGES AND EXPOSED SFCS IN THE NEXT FEW HRS. /CAB/                             
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION...ADVISORY ISSUED FOR NRN TIER ZONES FOR WINTER                
WEATHER TONIGHT. WILL SEE A RAIN/SLEET MIX AS FAR SOUTH AS                      
INTERSTATE 20 TONIGHT BUT THE BEST CHANCE FOR LIGHT ACCUMULATION                
WILL BE IN THE COLDEST AIR THAT SITS ALONG THE NRN EDGE OF THE                  
FORECAST AREA.                                                                  
A COLD AND VERY DRY AIR MASS HAS SETTLED OVER THE REGION.                       
EVAPORATIVE COOLING WILL PRODUCE FREEZING TEMPERATURES AT AND JUST              
ABOVE THE SURFACE OVER NRN ZONES AT THE ONSET OF PRECIP THIS                    
EVENING. FREEZING TEMPERATURES IN THE ADVISORY AREA...FROM CLEVELAND            
TO COLUMBUS...WILL BE DEEP ENOUGH FOR A MIXTURE OF SNOW AND SLEET               
EARLY TONIGHT. THE TIER FURTHER S WILL SEE RAIN AND SLEET MIXED WITH            
SNOW AND FREEZING RAIN BUT LITTLE OR NO ACCUMULATION OF WINTER                  
PRECIP IS EXPECTED. WET BULB ZERO TEMPS WILL HOVER IN A LAYER ABOVE             
THE SURFACE INTO CENTRAL ZONES RESULTING IN THE POSSIBILITY OF A                
RAIN AND SLEET MIXTURE INTO THE I-20 CORRIDOR BUT SLEET WILL MELT               
RAPIDLY ON CONTACT WITH THE GROUND. THE ADVECTION OF WARMER AIR                 
AROUND 850 MB AND COOLING OF LOWER LEVELS NEAR THE SURFACE AFTER THE            
ONSET OF RAIN HAS REQUIRED A VARIED PATTERN OF WEATHER TYPES FROM               
NORTH TO SOUTH FOR TONIGHT. DIFFERENCES IN FORECAST                             
TEMPERATURES...ESPECIALLY AT THE SURFACE...OF ONLY A DEGREE OR TWO              
WILL MEAN A POTENTIAL CHANGE IN THE WEATHER TYPE FOR MANY NRN AND               
CENTRAL ZONES. PRECIP HAS DEVELOPED OVER WRN ZONES THIS AFTERNOON               
WITH RAIN/SLEET MIXTURE ALREADY REPORTED OVER NE LA. TEMPERATURES               
WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE BY MIDNIGHT OVER MOST AREAS WHEN THE AIR                 
COLUMN BEGINS TO MOISTEN AND EVAPORATIVE COOLING IS SHUT DOWN. WE               
WILL MAINTAIN A CHANCE OF A RAIN/SLEET MIX FOR AREAS ALONG AND N OF             
THE HIGHWAY 82 CORRIDOR AFTER MIDNIGHT BUT MOST OTHER AREAS WILL SEE            
PRECIP TURN TO ALL RAIN BY OR SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT.                           
RAIN WILL BE WIDESPREAD OVER THE FORECAST AREA BY SUNRISE THURSDAY              
AND TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE FREEZING ACROSS THE REGION. THE                  
SURFACE TROUGH LIFTS INTO SRN ZONES BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON...                    
POSITIONING THE ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT IN SE MS BY 18Z. WILL MAINTAIN            
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS THOSE AREAS TOMORROW AFTERNOON BUT THE TRACK            
LOOKS TOO FAR S TO SUPPORT ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR SEVERE CONVECTION.            
UNDERCUT MOS HIGH TEMPS SLIGHTLY FOR TOMORROW CONSIDERING RAIN                  
SHIELD AND SRN EXTENT OF SURFACE TROUGH.                                        
THE BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA BY THURSDAY                   
EVENING. BEHIND THIS SYSTEM...SFC HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT                  
PLAINS STATES WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST.              
ISENTROPIC ANALYSIS AT THE 285-295K LEVEL AND REMAINING MOISTURE                
(PWATS AROUND 0.5-0.8 INCH) SHOW A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS FOR                
FRIDAY...MAINLY IN THE MORNING. WENT AHEAD AND STAYED WITH GUI FOR              
THU NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING.  ANY SHOWERS WILL NOT LAST LONG AS             
THE ECMWF AND GFS BOTH SHOW HIGH PRESSURE AND NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT              
TAKING OVER THE REGION TO START CLEARING OVER THE ARKLAMISS BY                  
SATURDAY AFTERNOON.  THE ARCTIC AIRMASS THAT IS MOVING INTO THE                 
REGION WILL COMBINE WITH CLEAR SKIES TO ALLOW LOW TEMPERATURES TO               
AGAIN DIP DOWN INTO THE 20S FOR THE END OF THE WEEKEND INTO THE                 
BEGINNING OF THE WORK WEEK.  THE MAIN CHANGES MADE TO TEMPERATURES              
WERE TO LOWER JUST A BIT ON FRIDAY NIGHT.  SKIES WILL BE CLEARING AS            
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN...AND 925MB TEMPS LOOK TO RANGE FROM 0C TO               
-8C FOR THIS TIME PERIOD.  DECIDED TO JUST BUMP TEMPERATURES DOWN A             
DEGREE OR TWO FOR THIS TIME PERIOD.                                             
FOR THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST (PAST SATURDAY NIGHT)...NO             
MAJOR CHANGES WERE NECESSARY.  THE PREVIOUS LONG TERM DISCUSSION                
FOLLOWS. /14/                                                                   
PREVIOUS LONG TERM DISCUSSION...THE DOMINANT HUDSON BAY LOW PATTERN             
WILL CONTINUE TO BRING SEVERAL COLD EPISODES FOR THE NEXT ONE TO TWO            
WEEKS IN MOSTLY DRY NORTHWEST FLOW. WITHOUT MUCH TO FOCUS ON                    
PRECIP-WISE...THE PRIMARY FORECAST QUESTIONS CONCERN THE INTENSITY              
OF COLD AS THE FORECAST AREA WILL EXIST ON THE SRN EDGE OF THE POLAR            
VORTEX. AT THIS TIME...IT LOOKS AS IF THE CENTER OF COLD AIR                    
ANOMALIES WILL STAY NORTH OF THE REGION...BUT THE NEXT FEW SURGES OF            
COLD AIR WILL BE SHALLOW AND OF TRUE ARCTIC ORIGINS FROM NEAR THE               
NORTH POLE. GIVEN RECENT GFS PERFORMANCES WITH SUCH AIRMASSES...HAVE            
OPTED TO TREND TOWARD COOLER GFS MEAN ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE AND CUT MEX             
GUIDANCE FROM FRIDAY NIGHT ONWARD (AT LEAST FOR PORTIONS OF THE                 
FORECAST AREA). /EC/                                                            
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...WIDESPREAD WINTER PRECIP WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION             
THIS EVENING ALONG AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 20 WITH THE BEST COVERAGE            
OVER AREAS ALONG AND NORTH OF HIGHWAY 82. HAVE RECEIVED REPORTS OF              
SLEET OVER NE LA AND TVR THIS AFTERNOON AS INITIAL PRECIP AREA MOVES            
IN. CLOUD HEIGHTS WILL GRADUALLY DROP AS PRECIP INCREASES IN                    
COVERAGE AND INTENSITY TONIGHT WITH MVFR CONDITIONS MANY LOCATIONS              
BY MIDNIGHT AND IFR CONDITIONS BY SUNRISE.                                      
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
JACKSON       36  45  36  51 /  98  97  25  16                                  
MERIDIAN      35  49  37  53 / 100  96  33  16                                  
VICKSBURG     36  42  37  50 /  96  89  25  17                                  
HATTIESBURG   40  53  39  57 / 100  99  29  16                                  
NATCHEZ       38  46  34  53 /  98  91  22  16                                  
GREENVILLE    32  38  33  43 /  99  95  39  18                                  
GREENWOOD     30  39  34  46 / 100  97  37  18                                  
&&                                                                              
.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
MS...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST THURSDAY FOR MSZ018-019-            
     025>034.                                                                   
LA...NONE.                                                                      
AR...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST THURSDAY FOR ARZ074-075.            
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
03/14                                                                           
</pre> ms                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY                                          
1236 PM EST THU FEB 1 2007                                                      
.AVIATION /18Z-18Z/...                                                          
VFR CONDS UNDER MOSTLY HIGH CIRRUS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND                  
EVENING. CLD BASES ARND 2500 FEET WILL SPREAD INTO KELM AFTER 06Z               
WITH LIGHT SNOW EXPECTED. MVFR CIGS GRADUALLY WORK THEIR WAY WEST               
AND MOVE INTO KITH/KBGM AT 08Z AND KSYR/KRME BY 09Z.                            
SNOW OVERSPREADS TERMINALS AFTER MIDNIGHT. OCNL VSBY RESTRICTIONS               
TO LIFR EXPECTED OVER SRN TERMINALS BTWN 10Z-14Z OVER CENTRAL                   
THREE TAF SITES AND BTWN 14Z-18Z AT KAVP. GENERAL LIGHT SNOW WITH               
MVFR CONDS AT KSYR/KRME AFTER 12Z.                                              
WINDS FROM SOUTHWEST AT 10-15KTS THIS AFTERNOON BCMG SOUTHEAST                  
AFTER MIDNIGHT. GENERALLY LIGHT SPEEDS ARND 5KTS ALL SITES.                     
&&                                                                              
PREV DISCUSSION...                                                              
/ISSUED 903 AM EST THU FEB 1 2007/                                              
UPDATE...                                                                       
SOME MID LVL DRYING ACRS THE BGM FCST AREA TAD, WITH DEEPER MSTR                
ARRIVING FROM THE SOUTH TWD EVNG. SAT PIX SHOW SIG BREAKS IN THE                
MID/UPR DECK TO OUR W AND SW, AND WILL BE MORE OPTIMISTIC WITH SKY              
COVER (LEANING TWD RUC SKY GRIDS WITH PC TO MC SKIES). SOME                     
--SHSN ACRS ERN ZONES, BUT THESE ARE DSPTNG AND XPCT TREND TO                   
CONTINUE, SO A DRY FCST FOR THIS AFTN.                                          
PREV DISCUSSION...                                                              
/ISSUED 305 AM EST THU FEB 1 2007/                                              
SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...                                      
HIGH PRESSURE IS SLIDING OFF THE EAST COAST THIS MORNING. RISING                
MOTION TO THE WEST IS IMPORTING A MID DECK OF CLOUD COVER, AND MAY              
PRODUCE A FEW STRAY SNOW SHOWERS TODAY. MEANWHILE A WAVE MOVING                 
THROUGH THE GULF STATES WILL CAUSE A STRONGER CYCLONE TO FORM                   
TONIGHT. THIS STORM WILL QUICKLY MOVE UP THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD.                 
MODEL TRENDS REMAIN SIMILAR TO WHAT WE SAW PVS 24H...THAT SYSTEM                
WILL REMAIN FAR ENOUGH OUT TO SEA TO KEEP SIG SNOW WELL EAST OF                 
OUR FA. HOWEVER SYSTEM WILL BE RESPONSIBLE FOR LIGHT SNOW OVER                  
MUCH OF THE REGION, WITH POSSIBILITY OF AN INCH OR TWO                          
ACCUMULATION OVER SOUTHEASTERN ZONES.                                           
WILL KEEP LIKELY POPS FOR LIGHT SNOW OVER ENTIRE REGION, FIRST                  
SPREADING INTO NE PA LATE TONIGHT AND THEN OVER REMAINDER OF                    
REGION BETWEEN 11Z-15Z.                                                         
COLD AIR WILL POUR DOWN FROM CANADA BEHIND THE CYCLONE AS TROF                  
DEEPENS INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. WITH THE AXIS UPSTREAM, WE WILL BE                
IN A COLD SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW, WHICH SHOULD KEEP LAKE EFFECT MAINLY              
NORTH OF THE REGION. HAVE ADJUSTED GRIDS TO REFLECT PERIPHERY OF                
POSSIBLE SNOW BANDS OVER NORTHERN FINGER LAKES, AND NORTHWESTERN                
PORTION OF MOHAWK VALLEY. DJP                                                   
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...                                       
HAVE PRETTY MUCH FOLLOWED HPC GUIDANCE THRU EXTENDED. STILL LOOKING             
AT BLO NORMAL TEMPS TO CONTINUE DURG THE PERIOD.  HIGHS EXPECTED TO             
BE IN THE TEENS AND LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND/OR BLO ZERO. WK               
ISENTROPIC LIFT EXPECTED ON SATURDAY WITH SCTD SNOW SHOWERS. CLIPPER            
COMES THRU ON SAT NIGHT INTO SUN WITH LAKE EFFECT KICKING IN BEHIND             
IT.  BOTH 06Z/12Z GFS KICKS OUT SFC LOW INTO CNTRL PLAIN ON MONDAY              
AND TRACKS IT ALONG MASON-DIXON LINE MON AND MON NIGHT.  EURO KEEPS             
LOW FURTHER SOUTH WITH CANADIAN FASTER AND FURTHER NORTH.  STILL A              
LOT OF UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS SYSTEM...ALTHOUGH 12Z GFS SLIGHTLY                 
FURTHER SOUTH WITH QPF AMTS THAN THE 06Z RUN.  THIS WOULD KEEP MOST             
OF SNOW SOUTH OF FA.  HAVE OPTED TO GO WITH MORE LES DURING THIS                
PERIOD THAN SYNOPTIC SCALE SNOWS BUT THIS WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED. PB           
&&                                                                              
.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
NY...NONE.                                                                      
PA...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
AVIATION...PB                                                                   
</pre> ny                                                                       

 AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                       
 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY                                         
 1236 PM EST THU FEB 1 2007                                                     
 .AVIATION /18Z-18Z/...                                                         
 VFR CONDS UNDER MOSTLY HIGH CIRRUS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND                 
 EVENING. CLD BASES ARND 2500 FEET WILL SPREAD INTO KELM AFTER 06Z              
 WITH LIGHT SNOW EXPECTED. MVFR CIGS GRADUALLY WORK THEIR WAY WEST              
 AND MOVE INTO KITH/KBGM AT 08Z AND KSYR/KRME BY 09Z.                           
 SNOW OVERSPREADS TERMINALS AFTER MIDNIGHT. OCNL VSBY RESTRICTIONS              
 TO LIFR EXPECTED OVER SRN TERMINALS BTWN 10Z-14Z OVER CENTRAL                  
 THREE TAF SITES AND BTWN 14Z-18Z AT KAVP. GENERAL LIGHT SNOW WITH              
 MVFR CONDS AT KSYR/KRME AFTER 12Z.                                             
 WINDS FROM SOUTHWEST AT 10-15KTS THIS AFTERNOON BCMG SOUTHEAST                 
 AFTER MIDNIGHT. GENERALLY LIGHT SPEEDS ARND 5KTS ALL SITES.                    
 &&                                                                             
 PREV DISCUSSION...                                                             
 /ISSUED 903 AM EST THU FEB 1 2007/                                             
 UPDATE...                                                                      
 SOME MID LVL DRYING ACRS THE BGM FCST AREA TAD, WITH DEEPER MSTR               
 ARRIVING FROM THE SOUTH TWD EVNG. SAT PIX SHOW SIG BREAKS IN THE               
 MID/UPR DECK TO OUR W AND SW, AND WILL BE MORE OPTIMISTIC WITH SKY             
 COVER (LEANING TWD RUC SKY GRIDS WITH PC TO MC SKIES). SOME                    
 --SHSN ACRS ERN ZONES, BUT THESE ARE DSPTNG AND XPCT TREND TO                  
 CONTINUE, SO A DRY FCST FOR THIS AFTN.                                         
 PREV DISCUSSION...                                                             
 /ISSUED 305 AM EST THU FEB 1 2007/                                             
 SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...                                     
 HIGH PRESSURE IS SLIDING OFF THE EAST COAST THIS MORNING. RISING               
 MOTION TO THE WEST IS IMPORTING A MID DECK OF CLOUD COVER, AND MAY             
 PRODUCE A FEW STRAY SNOW SHOWERS TODAY. MEANWHILE A WAVE MOVING                
 THROUGH THE GULF STATES WILL CAUSE A STRONGER CYCLONE TO FORM                  
 TONIGHT. THIS STORM WILL QUICKLY MOVE UP THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD.                
 MODEL TRENDS REMAIN SIMILAR TO WHAT WE SAW PVS 24H...THAT SYSTEM               
 WILL REMAIN FAR ENOUGH OUT TO SEA TO KEEP SIG SNOW WELL EAST OF                
 OUR FA. HOWEVER SYSTEM WILL BE RESPONSIBLE FOR LIGHT SNOW OVER                 
 MUCH OF THE REGION, WITH POSSIBILITY OF AN INCH OR TWO                         
 ACCUMULATION OVER SOUTHEASTERN ZONES.                                          
 WILL KEEP LIKELY POPS FOR LIGHT SNOW OVER ENTIRE REGION, FIRST                 
 SPREADING INTO NE PA LATE TONIGHT AND THEN OVER REMAINDER OF                   
 REGION BETWEEN 11Z-15Z.                                                        
 COLD AIR WILL POUR DOWN FROM CANADA BEHIND THE CYCLONE AS TROF                 
 DEEPENS INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. WITH THE AXIS UPSTREAM, WE WILL BE               
 IN A COLD SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW, WHICH SHOULD KEEP LAKE EFFECT MAINLY             
 NORTH OF THE REGION. HAVE ADJUSTED GRIDS TO REFLECT PERIPHERY OF               
 POSSIBLE SNOW BANDS OVER NORTHERN FINGER LAKES, AND NORTHWESTERN               
 PORTION OF MOHAWK VALLEY. DJP                                                  
 LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...                                      
 HAVE PRETTY MUCH FOLLOWED HPC GUIDANCE THRU EXTENDED. STILL LOOKING            
 AT BLO NORMAL TEMPS TO CONTINUE DURG THE PERIOD.  HIGHS EXPECTED TO            
 BE IN THE TEENS AND LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND/OR BLO ZERO. WK              
 ISENTROPIC LIFT EXPECTED ON SATURDAY WITH SCTD SNOW SHOWERS. CLIPPER           
 COMES THRU ON SAT NIGHT INTO SUN WITH LAKE EFFECT KICKING IN BEHIND            
 IT.  BOTH 06Z/12Z GFS KICKS OUT SFC LOW INTO CNTRL PLAIN ON MONDAY             
 AND TRACKS IT ALONG MASON-DIXON LINE MON AND MON NIGHT.  EURO KEEPS            
 LOW FURTHER SOUTH WITH CANADIAN FASTER AND FURTHER NORTH.  STILL A             
 LOT OF UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS SYSTEM...ALTHOUGH 12Z GFS SLIGHTLY                
 FURTHER SOUTH WITH QPF AMTS THAN THE 06Z RUN.  THIS WOULD KEEP MOST            
 OF SNOW SOUTH OF FA.  HAVE OPTED TO GO WITH MORE LES DURING THIS               
 PERIOD THAN SYNOPTIC SCALE SNOWS BUT THIS WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED. PB          
 &&                                                                             
 .BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                            
 NY...NONE.                                                                     
 PA...NONE.                                                                     
 &&                                                                             
 $$                                                                             
 AVIATION...PB                                                                  
</pre> ny                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY                                          
1118 AM EST THU FEB 1 2007                                                      
.UPDATE...                                                                      
PARTLY SUNNY SKIES ACRS THE RGN...SKY GRIDS AND ZONES UPDATED                   
ACCORDINGLY.                                                                    
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION...                                                             
/ISSUED 903 AM EST THU FEB 1 2007/                                              
UPDATE...                                                                       
SOME MID LVL DRYING ACRS THE BGM FCST AREA TDA, WITH DEEPER MSTR                
ARRIVING FROM THE SOUTH TWDS EVNG. SAT PIX SHOW SIG BREAKS IN THE               
MID/UPR DECK TO OUR W AND SW, AND WILL BE MORE OPTIMISTIC WITH SKY              
COVER (LEANING TWDS RUC SKY GRIDS WITH PC TO MC SKIES). SOME                    
--SHSN ACRS ERN ZONES, BUT THESE ARE DSPTNG AND XPCT TREND TO                   
CONTINUE, SO A DRY FCST FOR THIS AFTN.                                          
PREV DISCUSSION...                                                              
/ISSUED 618 AM EST THU FEB 1 2007/                                              
AVIATION /12Z-12Z/...                                                           
BROKEN MID DECK THIS MORNING WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE DAY. WINDS                
WILL BE LIGHT OUT OF THE SOUTH THIS MORNING, AND WILL INCREASE TO               
8-12 KTS OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON. A STRAY LIGHT SNOW                
SHOWER IS POSSIBLE BUT VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST.                             
LIGHT SNOW WILL OVERSPREAD EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. EXPECT CIGS TO                 
LOWER TO MVFR AROUND 06Z WITH VIS FALLING TO 2-4SM IN LIGHT SNOW                
MAINLY FROM ITH-BGM SOUTHWARD TO ELM-AVP.  DJP                                  
PREV DISCUSSION...                                                              
/ISSUED 305 AM EST THU FEB 1 2007/                                              
SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...                                      
HIGH PRESSURE IS SLIDING OFF THE EAST COAST THIS MORNING. RISING                
MOTION TO THE WEST IS IMPORTING A MID DECK OF CLOUD COVER, AND MAY              
PRODUCE A FEW STRAY SNOW SHOWERS TODAY. MEANWHILE A WAVE MOVING                 
THROUGH THE GULF STATES WILL CAUSE A STRONGER CYCLONE TO FORM                   
TONIGHT. THIS STORM WILL QUICKLY MOVE UP THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD.                 
MODEL TRENDS REMAIN SIMILAR TO WHAT WE SAW PVS 24H...THAT SYSTEM                
WILL REMAIN FAR ENOUGH OUT TO SEA TO KEEP SIG SNOW WELL EAST OF                 
OUR FA. HOWEVER SYSTEM WILL BE RESPONSIBLE FOR LIGHT SNOW OVER                  
MUCH OF THE REGION, WITH POSSIBILITY OF AN INCH OR TWO                          
ACCUMULATION OVER SOUTHEASTERN ZONES.                                           
WILL KEEP LIKELY POPS FOR LIGHT SNOW OVER ENTIRE REGION, FIRST                  
SPREADING INTO NE PA LATE TONIGHT AND THEN OVER REMAINDER OF                    
REGION BETWEEN 11Z-15Z.                                                         
COLD AIR WILL POUR DOWN FROM CANADA BEHIND THE CYCLONE AS TROF                  
DEEPENS INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. WITH THE AXIS UPSTREAM, WE WILL BE                
IN A COLD SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW, WHICH SHOULD KEEP LAKE EFFECT MAINLY              
NORTH OF THE REGION. HAVE ADJUSTED GRIDS TO REFLECT PERIPHERY OF                
POSSIBLE SNOW BANDS OVER NORTHERN FINGER LAKES, AND NORTHWESTERN                
PORTION OF MOHAWK VALLEY. DJP                                                   
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...                                       
HAVE PRETTY MUCH FOLLOWED HPC GUIDANCE THRU EXTENDED. STILL LOOKING             
AT BLO NORMAL TEMPS TO CONTINUE DURG THE PERIOD.  HIGHS EXPECTED TO             
BE IN THE TEENS AND LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND/OR BLO ZERO. WK               
ISENTROPIC LIFT EXPECTED ON SATURDAY WITH SCTD SNOW SHOWERS. CLIPPER            
COMES THRU ON SAT NIGHT INTO SUN WITH LAKE EFFECT KICKING IN BEHIND             
IT.  BOTH 06Z/12Z GFS KICKS OUT SFC LOW INTO CNTRL PLAIN ON MONDAY              
AND TRACKS IT ALONG MASON-DIXON LINE MON AND MON NIGHT.  EURO KEEPS             
LOW FURTHER SOUTH WITH CANADIAN FASTER AND FURTHER NORTH.  STILL A              
LOT OF UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS SYSTEM...ALTHOUGH 12Z GFS SLIGHTLY                 
FURTHER SOUTH WITH QPF AMTS THAN THE 06Z RUN.  THIS WOULD KEEP MOST             
OF SNOW SOUTH OF FA.  HAVE OPTED TO GO WITH MORE LES DURING THIS                
PERIOD THAN SYNOPTIC SCALE SNOWS BUT THIS WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED. PB           
AVIATION /08Z-06Z/...                                                           
VERY QUIET TODAY WITH JUST A FEW FLURRIES OR LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS                 
EXPECTED. THESE WILL BE WIDELY SCATTERED, SO DID NOT INCLUDE IN                 
TERMINAL FORECASTS. MID DECK WILL LOWER TO A VFR STRATOCU DECK                  
LATER TODAY.  DJP                                                               
&&                                                                              
.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
NY...NONE.                                                                      
PA...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</pre> ny                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY                                          
903 AM EST THU FEB 1 2007                                                       
.UPDATE...                                                                      
SOME MID LVL DRYING ACRS THE BGM FCST AREA TDA, WITH DEEPER MSTR                
ARRIVING FROM THE SOUTH TWDS EVNG. SAT PIX SHOW SIG BREAKS IN THE               
MID/UPR DECK TO OUR W AND SW, AND WILL BE MORE OPTIMISTIC WITH SKY              
COVER (LEANING TWDS RUC SKY GRIDS WITH PC TO MC SKIES). SOME                    
--SHSN ACRS ERN ZONES, BUT THESE ARE DSPTNG AND XPCT TREND TO                   
CONTINUE, SO A DRY FCST FOR THIS AFTN.                                          
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION...                                                             
/ISSUED 618 AM EST THU FEB 1 2007/                                              
AVIATION /12Z-12Z/...                                                           
BROKEN MID DECK THIS MORNING WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE DAY. WINDS                
WILL BE LIGHT OUT OF THE SOUTH THIS MORNING, AND WILL INCREASE TO               
8-12 KTS OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON. A STRAY LIGHT SNOW                
SHOWER IS POSSIBLE BUT VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST.                             
LIGHT SNOW WILL OVERSPREAD EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. EXPECT CIGS TO                 
LOWER TO MVFR AROUND 06Z WITH VIS FALLING TO 2-4SM IN LIGHT SNOW                
MAINLY FROM ITH-BGM SOUTHWARD TO ELM-AVP.  DJP                                  
PREV DISCUSSION...                                                              
/ISSUED 305 AM EST THU FEB 1 2007/                                              
SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...                                      
HIGH PRESSURE IS SLIDING OFF THE EAST COAST THIS MORNING. RISING                
MOTION TO THE WEST IS IMPORTING A MID DECK OF CLOUD COVER, AND MAY              
PRODUCE A FEW STRAY SNOW SHOWERS TODAY. MEANWHILE A WAVE MOVING                 
THROUGH THE GULF STATES WILL CAUSE A STRONGER CYCLONE TO FORM                   
TONIGHT. THIS STORM WILL QUICKLY MOVE UP THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD.                 
MODEL TRENDS REMAIN SIMILAR TO WHAT WE SAW PVS 24H...THAT SYSTEM                
WILL REMAIN FAR ENOUGH OUT TO SEA TO KEEP SIG SNOW WELL EAST OF                 
OUR FA. HOWEVER SYSTEM WILL BE RESPONSIBLE FOR LIGHT SNOW OVER                  
MUCH OF THE REGION, WITH POSSIBILITY OF AN INCH OR TWO                          
ACCUMULATION OVER SOUTHEASTERN ZONES.                                           
WILL KEEP LIKELY POPS FOR LIGHT SNOW OVER ENTIRE REGION, FIRST                  
SPREADING INTO NE PA LATE TONIGHT AND THEN OVER REMAINDER OF                    
REGION BETWEEN 11Z-15Z.                                                         
COLD AIR WILL POUR DOWN FROM CANADA BEHIND THE CYCLONE AS TROF                  
DEEPENS INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. WITH THE AXIS UPSTREAM, WE WILL BE                
IN A COLD SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW, WHICH SHOULD KEEP LAKE EFFECT MAINLY              
NORTH OF THE REGION. HAVE ADJUSTED GRIDS TO REFLECT PERIPHERY OF                
POSSIBLE SNOW BANDS OVER NORTHERN FINGER LAKES, AND NORTHWESTERN                
PORTION OF MOHAWK VALLEY. DJP                                                   
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...                                       
HAVE PRETTY MUCH FOLLOWED HPC GUIDANCE THRU EXTENDED. STILL LOOKING             
AT BLO NORMAL TEMPS TO CONTINUE DURG THE PERIOD.  HIGHS EXPECTED TO             
BE IN THE TEENS AND LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND/OR BLO ZERO. WK               
ISENTROPIC LIFT EXPECTED ON SATURDAY WITH SCTD SNOW SHOWERS. CLIPPER            
COMES THRU ON SAT NIGHT INTO SUN WITH LAKE EFFECT KICKING IN BEHIND             
IT.  BOTH 06Z/12Z GFS KICKS OUT SFC LOW INTO CNTRL PLAIN ON MONDAY              
AND TRACKS IT ALONG MASON-DIXON LINE MON AND MON NIGHT.  EURO KEEPS             
LOW FURTHER SOUTH WITH CANADIAN FASTER AND FURTHER NORTH.  STILL A              
LOT OF UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS SYSTEM...ALTHOUGH 12Z GFS SLIGHTLY                 
FURTHER SOUTH WITH QPF AMTS THAN THE 06Z RUN.  THIS WOULD KEEP MOST             
OF SNOW SOUTH OF FA.  HAVE OPTED TO GO WITH MORE LES DURING THIS                
PERIOD THAN SYNOPTIC SCALE SNOWS BUT THIS WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED. PB           
AVIATION /08Z-06Z/...                                                           
VERY QUIET TODAY WITH JUST A FEW FLURRIES OR LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS                 
EXPECTED. THESE WILL BE WIDELY SCATTERED, SO DID NOT INCLUDE IN                 
TERMINAL FORECASTS. MID DECK WILL LOWER TO A VFR STRATOCU DECK                  
LATER TODAY.  DJP                                                               
&&                                                                              
.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
NY...NONE.                                                                      
PA...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</pre> ny                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC                                             
215 PM EST THU FEB 1 2007                                                       
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...                                         
TONIGHT...SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A SERIES OF WAVES EMBEDDED IN THE             
LONG EXTENSION OF THE 150KT SUBTROPICAL JET...EXTENDING FROM THE                
MEXICAN PLATEAU INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION. THE FIRST S/W                     
DISTURBANCE IS CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA...AS THE              
HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION SHIFTS TO THE EASTERN CWA. THERE WILL BE A               
LULL IN PRECIPITATION ACROSS CENTRAL NC THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY                
EVENING...UNTIL THE SECOND MORE ROBUST UPPER WAVE(CURRENTLY ROUNDING            
BASE OF THE LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER TEXAS)APPROACHES THE AREA BETWEEN             
06Z TO 12Z. PRECIP WILL FILL BACK INTO THE AREA AS FORCING ALOFT                
FROM LF EXIT REGION AND POSITIVE VORTICITY ADVECTION SPREADS                    
FROM SW TO NE OVER THE AREA. THE LATEST RUC AND MESONAM SOUNDINGS               
AND SFC TW SUPPORT ALL RAIN ACROSS THE ADVISORY AREA BY 00Z...WITH              
FURTHER SUPPORT FROM PARTIAL THICKNESS NOMOGRAM AND CONSENSUS OF THE            
VARIOUS P-TYPE ALGORITHMS(RAMER...BOURGOUIN...REVISED NCEP). AS A               
RESULT CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT THE THREAT OF FREEZING RAIN WILL BE              
OVER BY 6PM(IF NOT EARLIER)...AND THUS WILL NOT BE EXTENDED.                    
WILL ADJUST GRIDS TO SHOW RAIN INCREASING LATE IN THE EVENING... AND            
THEN GRADUALLY TAPERING OFF INTO DRIZZLE AS MID-LEVELS BEGIN TO                 
DRY OUT BY AROUND DAYBREAK. TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT WILL BE STEADY OR            
SLIGHTLY RISING WITH ABSENCE OF CAA AND AS THE RAIN FALLS INTO THE              
3 TO 5C WARM NOSE. TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT IN THE LOWER TO MID 30S.              
FRIDAY...A CHANCE OF RAIN IN THE MORNING...THEN RAIN ENDING WEST TO             
EAST. CENTRAL NC REMAINS IN WARM SECTOR AND LOW-LEVELS REMAIN                   
SATURATED UNTIL FROPA WHICH OCCURRS AROUND 00Z. HIGHS 45 TO 50.                 
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...                                   
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY..DRY SURGE COMMENCES FRIDAY NIGHT WITH              
CLEARING SKIES. NAM/GFS REMAIN A BIT AT ODDS CONCERNING THE                     
DEEPENING TROF OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS...WITH THE NAM BEING                 
CLOSER TO CONSENSUS WITH THE UKMET/ECMWF...HAVING A MORE AMPLIFIED              
UPPER TROF AND DELAYING THE COLD AIR PUSH INTO THE EASTERN CONUS.               
THE RESULTING MOS MAX TEMPS ARE THUS A BIT IN QUESTION...BUT WILL               
TOP OUT MAINLY IN THE MID AND UPPER 40S REGARDLESS.                             
THE SURFACE HIGH AND THE UPPER TROF EDGE EAST ON SUNDAY. NAM IS                 
SLOWER WITH THIS PROGRESSION AS IT DRIVES ARTIC AIR DEEPER INTO THE             
MIDWEST...CONTINUING TO AMPLIFY THE UPPER TROF AND DELAY THE COLDEST            
AIR. WILL CONTINUE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WITH HIGHS STRUGGLING INTO THE            
40 TO 45 DEGREE RANGE.                                                          
THE FLOW ALOFT IS DOMINATED BY A BROAD LARGE SCALE TROUGH OVER THE              
EASTERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE CONUS WITH A TROUGH AXIS THAT STEEPENS                
OVER THE APPALACHIANS AROUND TUE NIGHT...THEN FLATTENS AS THE TROUGH            
LOSES AMPLITUDE BY THU. SURFACE FEATURES SHOW WEAK HIGH PRESSURE                
DRIFTING ACROSS THE AREA SUN NGT AND MON AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT MON              
NIGHT THAT USHERS ANOTHER ARCTIC AIRMASS SOUTHEASTWARD OUT OF THE               
NORTHERN PLAINS.  THE OVERNIGHT GFS SHOWS A WEAK LOW FORMATION IN               
THE LEE OF THE APPALACHIANS WITH THE COLD FRONT LATE MON...                     
SUGGESTING SOME MOISTURE CONVERGENCE IN LOWER TO MID LEVELS. OTHER              
MODELS DO NOT RESOLVE THIS FEATURE.  THE SURFACE LAYER IS EXPECTED              
TO BE VERY DRY WITH DEW POINTS OF 10-15 DEGREES AND CHANCES OF                  
PRECIPITATION HITTING THE GROUND REMAIN LESS THAN 15 PERCENT IN THE             
RAH CWA.  TEMPERATURES DROP TO BETWEEN 10 AND 20 DEGREES BELOW                  
NORMAL FOLLOWING THE ARCTIC COLD FRONT FOR TUE AND WED MODERATING               
BUT STILL BELOW NORMAL ON THU.                                                  
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION /18Z-18Z/...                                                          
A COOL SATURATED AIRMASS IN THE WAKE OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE NC               
COAST WILL MAINTAIN IFR AND LIFR CONDITIONS ACROSS CENTRAL NC                   
THROUGH TONIGHT AND FRI MORNING.  WIDESPREAD RAIN...WITH SOME                   
FREEZING RAIN POSSIBLE AT KINT AND KGSO EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...WILL             
TAPER TO DRIZZLE EARLY THIS EVENING.  MORE AREAS OF RAIN WILL LIKELY            
CROSS CENTRAL NC IN THE PREDAWN HOURS FRI MORNING...ENDING SHORTLY              
AFTERNOON DAYBREAK.  CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE TO ABOVE IFR             
FRI AFTERNOON AS A SURGE OF DRIER AIR PUSHES IN FROM THE WEST.                  
&&                                                                              
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR                       
NCZ007-008-021>025-038>040.                                                     
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHORT TERM...CBL                                                                
LONG TERM...RFG/MLM                                                             
AVIATION...RFG                                                                  
</pre> nc                                                                       

 AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                       
 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC                                            
 215 PM EST THU FEB 1 2007                                                      
 .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...                                        
 TONIGHT...SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A SERIES OF WAVES EMBEDDED IN THE            
 LONG EXTENSION OF THE 150KT SUBTROPICAL JET...EXTENDING FROM THE               
 MEXICAN PLATEAU INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION. THE FIRST S/W                    
 DISTURBANCE IS CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA...AS THE             
 HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION SHIFTS TO THE EASTERN CWA. THERE WILL BE A              
 LULL IN PRECIPITATION ACROSS CENTRAL NC THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY               
 EVENING...UNTIL THE SECOND MORE ROBUST UPPER WAVE(CURRENTLY ROUNDING           
 BASE OF THE LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER TEXAS)APPROACHES THE AREA BETWEEN            
 06Z TO 12Z. PRECIP WILL FILL BACK INTO THE AREA AS FORCING ALOFT               
 FROM LF EXIT REGION AND POSITIVE VORTICITY ADVECTION SPREADS                   
 FROM SW TO NE OVER THE AREA. THE LATEST RUC AND MESONAM SOUNDINGS              
 AND SFC TW SUPPORT ALL RAIN ACROSS THE ADVISORY AREA BY 00Z...WITH             
 FURTHER SUPPORT FROM PARTIAL THICKNESS NOMOGRAM AND CONSENSUS OF THE           
 VARIOUS P-TYPE ALGORITHMS(RAMER...BOURGOUIN...REVISED NCEP). AS A              
 RESULT CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT THE THREAT OF FREEZING RAIN WILL BE             
 OVER BY 6PM(IF NOT EARLIER)...AND THUS WILL NOT BE EXTENDED.                   
 WILL ADJUST GRIDS TO SHOW RAIN INCREASING LATE IN THE EVENING... AND           
 THEN GRADUALLY TAPERING OFF INTO DRIZZLE AS MID-LEVELS BEGIN TO                
 DRY OUT BY AROUND DAYBREAK. TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT WILL BE STEADY OR           
 SLIGHTLY RISING WITH ABSENCE OF CAA AND AS THE RAIN FALLS INTO THE             
 3 TO 5C WARM NOSE. TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT IN THE LOWER TO MID 30S.             
 FRIDAY...A CHANCE OF RAIN IN THE MORNING...THEN RAIN ENDING WEST TO            
 EAST. CENTRAL NC REMAINS IN WARM SECTOR AND LOW-LEVELS REMAIN                  
 SATURATED UNTIL FROPA WHICH OCCURRS AROUND 00Z. HIGHS 45 TO 50.                
 &&                                                                             
 .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...                                  
 FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY..DRY SURGE COMMENCES FRIDAY NIGHT WITH             
 CLEARING SKIES. NAM/GFS REMAIN A BIT AT ODDS CONCERNING THE                    
 DEEPENING TROF OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS...WITH THE NAM BEING                
 CLOSER TO CONSENSUS WITH THE UKMET/ECMWF...HAVING A MORE AMPLIFIED             
 UPPER TROF AND DELAYING THE COLD AIR PUSH INTO THE EASTERN CONUS.              
 THE RESULTING MOS MAX TEMPS ARE THUS A BIT IN QUESTION...BUT WILL              
 TOP OUT MAINLY IN THE MID AND UPPER 40S REGARDLESS.                            
 THE SURFACE HIGH AND THE UPPER TROF EDGE EAST ON SUNDAY. NAM IS                
 SLOWER WITH THIS PROGRESSION AS IT DRIVES ARTIC AIR DEEPER INTO THE            
 MIDWEST...CONTINUING TO AMPLIFY THE UPPER TROF AND DELAY THE COLDEST           
 AIR. WILL CONTINUE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WITH HIGHS STRUGGLING INTO THE           
 40 TO 45 DEGREE RANGE.                                                         
 THE FLOW ALOFT IS DOMINATED BY A BROAD LARGE SCALE TROUGH OVER THE             
 EASTERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE CONUS WITH A TROUGH AXIS THAT STEEPENS               
 OVER THE APPALACHIANS AROUND TUE NIGHT...THEN FLATTENS AS THE TROUGH           
 LOSES AMPLITUDE BY THU. SURFACE FEATURES SHOW WEAK HIGH PRESSURE               
 DRIFTING ACROSS THE AREA SUN NGT AND MON AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT MON             
 NIGHT THAT USHERS ANOTHER ARCTIC AIRMASS SOUTHEASTWARD OUT OF THE              
 NORTHERN PLAINS.  THE OVERNIGHT GFS SHOWS A WEAK LOW FORMATION IN              
 THE LEE OF THE APPALACHIANS WITH THE COLD FRONT LATE MON...                    
 SUGGESTING SOME MOISTURE CONVERGENCE IN LOWER TO MID LEVELS. OTHER             
 MODELS DO NOT RESOLVE THIS FEATURE.  THE SURFACE LAYER IS EXPECTED             
 TO BE VERY DRY WITH DEW POINTS OF 10-15 DEGREES AND CHANCES OF                 
 PRECIPITATION HITTING THE GROUND REMAIN LESS THAN 15 PERCENT IN THE            
 RAH CWA.  TEMPERATURES DROP TO BETWEEN 10 AND 20 DEGREES BELOW                 
 NORMAL FOLLOWING THE ARCTIC COLD FRONT FOR TUE AND WED MODERATING              
 BUT STILL BELOW NORMAL ON THU.                                                 
 &&                                                                             
 .AVIATION /18Z-18Z/...                                                         
 A COOL SATURATED AIRMASS IN THE WAKE OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE NC              
 COAST WILL MAINTAIN IFR AND LIFR CONDITIONS ACROSS CENTRAL NC                  
 THROUGH TONIGHT AND FRI MORNING.  WIDESPREAD RAIN...WITH SOME                  
 FREEZING RAIN POSSIBLE AT KINT AND KGSO EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...WILL            
 TAPER TO DRIZZLE EARLY THIS EVENING.  MORE AREAS OF RAIN WILL LIKELY           
 CROSS CENTRAL NC IN THE PREDAWN HOURS FRI MORNING...ENDING SHORTLY             
 AFTERNOON DAYBREAK.  CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE TO ABOVE IFR            
 FRI AFTERNOON AS A SURGE OF DRIER AIR PUSHES IN FROM THE WEST.                 
 &&                                                                             
 .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                            
 WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR                      
 NCZ007-008-021>025-038>040.                                                    
 &&                                                                             
 $$                                                                             
 SHORT TERM...CBL                                                               
 LONG TERM...RFG/MLM                                                            
 AVIATION...RFG                                                                 
</pre> nc                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC                                             
1045 AM EST THU FEB 1 2007                                                      
.UPDATE...                                                                      
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM /REST OF TODAY/...                                                  
THE INITIAL HEAVY BURST OF SNOW HAS RESULTED IN HEAVIEST SNOWFALL               
TOTALS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF CWA...SEEN CLEARLY EARLIER ON THE            
KRAX RADAR IMAGERY WITH THE BRIGHT BAND REFLECTIVITY EXTENDING                  
OVER THE SOUTHERN SECTOR. REPORTS INDICATE THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS                  
ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST PIEDMONT...STANLY...ANSON...AND MONTGOMERY                 
AND MOORE COUNTIES. 1 TO 1.5 INCHES WAS REPORTED IN THE SANDHILLS               
AND SOUTHERN COASTAL PLAIN...WHICH PROMPTED RAISING A WINTER WX                 
ADVISORY THROUGH NOON. MEANWHILE ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF...SNOW                
AMOUNTS ARE LESS THAN AN INCH WITH THE TRIAD AND COUNTIES                       
ALONG THE VA BORDER REPORTING ONLY A TRACE.                                     
CURRENTLY...                                                                    
REAL TIME REPORTS...AIRCRAFT(AMDAR)SOUNDINGS...AND THE                          
MRR-VERTICALLY POINTING RADAR...ARE ALL SHOWING THE ADVERTISED                  
WARMING NOSE ALOFT ADVANCING NORTH WITH THE MELTING LAYER STARTING              
TO DESCEND DOWN TO THE SURFACE. REPORTS EXTENDING FROM                          
ALBEMARLE...MOORE... FAYETTEVILLE HAVE CHANGED OVER TO SLEET OR                 
FREEZING RAIN. THE LATEST RUC IS MODELING THE THERMAL PROFILE FAIRLY            
WELL WHEN COMPARED TO THE LATEST AMDAR SOUNDING FROM GSO...WITH IT A            
LITTLE TOO COOL ALOFT AND SLIGHTLY TOO WARM NEAR THE SURFACE                    
SURFACE.                                                                        
WITH THE MAIN WARM/MOIST AIR CONVEYOR BELT DIRECTED IN A MORE                   
SW TO NE FASHION AND TRANSLATING IN A MORE EASTERLY                             
DIRECTION...RADARS RETURNS HAVE BEEN HARD TO COME BY ACROSS THE                 
TRIAD. IT APPEARS THAT THE PREDICTED SNOWFALL OF 1 TO 2 INCHES                  
WILL NOT BE REALIZED. HOWEVER...PRECIP WILL SPREAD BACK NORTH                   
THIS AFTERNOON AS THE WELL-DEFINED WAVE OVER ALABAMA TRANSLATES                 
NE TOWARDS CENTRAL NC. BY THAT TIME...THE THERMAL PROFILE WILL                  
BE WARMING TO SUPPORT A TRANSITION TO SLEET AND THE ANTICIPATED                 
FREEZING RAIN. THERE IS STILL YET ANOTHER WAVE OVER THE TEXAS AND               
OKLAHOMA THIS IS PROGGED TO APPROACH THE AREA BETWEEN 00Z TO 06Z.               
SO BY NO MEANS IS THE TRIAD OUT OF THE WOODS...WITH A QUARTER OF AN             
INCH ICE STILL VERY POSSIBLE. WILL BE KEEPING ALL WARNINGS AND                  
ADVISORIES UP...BUT LOWER THE SNOWFALL AMOUNTS AND POPS.                        
OTHERWISE...MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO FORECAST OF P-TYPE AND TIMING OF               
CHANGEOVER.                                                                     
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...                                   
THE FLOW ALOFT IS DOMINATED BY A BROAD LARGE SCALE TROUGH OVER THE              
EASTERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE CONUS WITH A TROUGH AXIS THAT STEEPENS                
OVER THE APPALACHIANS AROUND TUE NIGHT...THEN FLATTENS AS THE TROUGH            
LOSES AMPLITUDE BY THU. SURFACE FEATURES SHOW WEAK HIGH PRESSURE                
DRIFTING ACROSS THE AREA SUN NGT AND MON AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT MON              
NIGHT THAT USHERS ANOTHER ARCTIC AIRMASS SOUTHEASTWARD OUT OF THE               
NORTHERN PLAINS.  THE OVERNIGHT GFS SHOWS A WEAK LOW FORMATION IN               
THE LEE OF THE APPALACHIANS WITH THE COLD FRONT LATE MON...                     
SUGGESTING SOME MOISTURE CONVERGENCE IN LOWER TO MID LEVELS. OTHER              
MODELS DO NOT RESOLVE THIS FEATURE.  THE SURFACE LAYER IS EXPECTED              
TO BE VERY DRY WITH DEW POINTS OF 10-15 DEGREES AND CHANCES OF                  
PRECIPITATION HITTING THE GROUND REMAIN LESS THAN 15 PERCENT IN THE             
RAH CWA.  TEMPERATURES DROP TO BETWEEN 10 AND 20 DEGREES BELOW                  
NORMAL FOLLOWING THE ARCTIC COLD FRONT FOR TUE AND WED MODERATING               
BUT STILL BELOW NORMAL ON THU.                                                  
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION...                                                             
/ISSUED 312 AM EST THU FEB 1 2007/                                              
SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...                                    
TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY...                                                         
INTERESTING AND SOMEWHAT TRICKY FORECAST FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS OVER             
A LARGE PORTION OF CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA. MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS                
SPREADING INTO AREA RESULTING IN TEMPERATURES BOUNCING AROUND                   
SHOWING RISES WHICH MAKES FORECAST ALL THE MORE TRICKY. BUT                     
DEWPOINTS ARE QUITE LOW...STILL SINGLE DIGITS  IN NORTHWEST BUT A               
SLIGHT RISE OVER SOUTH/SOUTHWEST SECTIONS. HOWEVER EXPECT                       
TEMPERATURES TO FALL ONCE PRECIP STARTS. ONSET TIMING AND QPF                   
AMOUNTS ARE THE KEY FACTORS. PRECIPITATION CURRENTLY OVER DEEP SOUTH            
HANDLED QUITE WELL BY GFS. LATEST RADAR TRENDS SHOW AREA ADVANCING              
NORTHEAST/EAST FAIRLY QUICKLY. HEAVIER MIX PRECIP CURRENTLY INTO                
NORTH AND NORTH CENTRAL GEORGIA WITH SOME LIGHTER ECHOES ALOFT NOW              
OVER CENTRAL CWA. SOME DIFFERENCES EXIST BETWEEN NAM/GFS WHILE THERE            
ARE SIMILARITIES. NAM IS THE COLDEST AND WETTEST. NAM BRINGS CORE OF            
HIGHEST PRECIP ACROSS THE CWA WHILE GFS MOVES ACROSS MAINLY SOUTHERN            
SECTIONS. ALSO NAM HAS MORE PRONOUNCED INSITU WEDGE AND PROFILES FOR            
GSO/RDU BELOW FREEZING THROUGH 18Z INDICATING A LONGER PERIOD OF                
SNOW. GFS WEAKER ON INSITU WEDGE AND PROFILES INDICATE PRECIP                   
TRANSITIONING OVER SLEET/FREEZING RAIN BY THE AFTERNOON. TOUGH CALL             
AS GFS HAS BEEN FAIRLY CONSISTENT AND PERFORMANCE GOOD SO FAR THIS              
WINTER. GFS PARTIALS ARE MORE IN LINE WITH LATEST GSO RAOB (06Z).               
06Z GSO SOUNDING SHOWING QUITE A BIT OF MID LEVEL DRY AIR. PER GFS              
GOOD ISENTROPIC LIFT COMMENCES OVER CWA AT 12Z WHILE NAM FURTHER                
SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST. BOTH NAM/GFS SHOWING TWO ROUNDS OF PRECIP                  
MOVING ACROSS THE AREA...ONE DURING THE DAY...THEN ANOTHER WITH                 
SECOND WAVE 00Z-06Z.  OVERALL WILL LEAN TOWARD GFS WITH                         
MODIFICATION. WILL HOLD ON TO ALL SNOW LONGER IN NORTHWEST PIEDMONT.            
ALSO SLOWER TREND ON TRANSITION OF PRECIP IN EASTERN PIEDMONT TO ALL            
RAIN. ADDITIONALLY WILL ADJUST TEMPERATURE TRENDS TO KEEP COLDER                
THROUGH 00Z. FOR FRIDAY WILL KEEP DRIZZLE MENTIONED THROUGH MID                 
MORNING. --RA                                                                   
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...                                          
AT THIS POINT WILL CONTINUE CURRENT FORECAST TREND. DRY AND COLD.               
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...                                         
BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH REMAIN ANCHORED OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE              
PERIOD TO REINFORCE COLD AIR OVER THE AREA. AT THE SURFACE HIGH                 
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA SUNDAY. SUNDAY NIGHT...A BOUNDARY                 
DEVELOPS ALONG THE VIRGINIA/NORTH CAROLINA BORDER AND EXTENDS WEST              
AND SOUTHWEST TO TENNESSEE...THEN TO A LOW OVER EASTERN TEXAS. THERE            
IS SOME MOISTURE AND WEAK UPPER SUPPORT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE            
..HOWEVER WILL LEAVE FORECAST DRY AT THE PRESENT TIME. THIS SYSTEM              
WILL BE PUSHED TO THE SOUTHEAST LATE MONDAY AND EARLY TUESDAY AS                
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA...AND REMAINS OVER THE                
REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE RESULT OF THIS ARCTIC AIRMASS WILL BE             
BELOW TO MUCH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. -RHJ                                   
AVIATION /07Z-06Z/...                                                           
ALTOCUMULUS BEGINNING TO MOVE INTO THE FOOTHILLS AT THIS TIME.                  
CLOUDS WILL LOWER OVERNIGHT AND LIKELY DROP BELOW VFR A COUPLE OF               
HOURS AFTER SUNRISE AT THE TAF LOCATIONS. CEILINGS BELOW 1000 FEET              
ONCE PRECIPITATION BEGINS WITH MVFR VISIBILITIES IN GENERAL.                    
CEILINGS BELOW 600 FEET MOST OF THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE NIGHT.               
ALL TAF SITES EXPECTING SOME NON-LIQUID PRECIPITATION THURSDAY WITH             
FAYETTEVILLE HAVING THE LEAST IMPACT AND SHORTEST DURATION...AND                
GREENSBORO AND WINSTON-SALEM MOST IMPACTED BY WINTER WEATHER.                   
ACCUMULATING SNOW THURSDAY MORNING WILL MIX WITH SLEET AND CHANGE TO            
FREEZING RAIN IN THE AFTERNOON. LESSER AMOUNTS OF SNOW AND SLEET AS             
ONE MOVES EAST BUT FREEZING RAIN WILL BE A CONCERN. -RLH/VINCENT                
&&                                                                              
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR NCZ078-085-                    
086-088-089.                                                                    
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR NCZ007>010-                 
021>025-038>040-073-074.                                                        
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR NCZ011-                  
026>028-041>043-075>077-083-084.                                                
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHORT TERM...CBL                                                                
</pre> nc                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC                               
1020 AM EST THU FEB 1 2007                                                      
.SHORT TERM /TODAY/...PRIMARILY SNOW FALLING ALONG AND WEST OF THE              
HIGHWAY 17 CORRIDOR AND HAVE ISSUED SNOW ADVISORIES FOR THESE                   
AREAS UNTIL NOON. STILL ANTICIPATE ENOUGH WARMING IN THE LOW                    
LEVELS TO CHANGE ALL PRECIPITATION TO RAIN BY MIDDAY. HAVE ALREADY              
SEEN SOME ACCUMULATIONS OVER GREENE...PITT...LENOIR AND DUPLIN                  
COUNTIES WITH UP TO AN INCH AND A HALF IN LENOIR COUNTY. REST OF                
THE CWA WILL HAVE ALL RAIN WITH SOME DECENT QPF AMOUNTS NEAR THE                
COAST. HAVE ADJUSTED MAX TEMPS DOWN A COUPLE OF DEGREES AS WELL                 
FOR THE AFTERNOON.                                                              
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION /15Z-12Z/...GENERALLY IFR WITH RAIN WITH SOME SNOW AT                 
THE WESTERN TAF SITES (PGV, ISO) UNTIL AROUND 16 OR 17Z.                        
&&                                                                              
.MARINE...WILL MAKE SOME MINOR TWEAKS TO WIND DIRECTION BASED ON                
CURRENT OBS AND BLEND IT INTO THE RUC SOLUTIONS FOR THE AFTERNOON.              
&&                                                                              
.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
NC...SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR NCZ029-044-045-079-080-             
     090-091.                                                                   
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 AM EST FRIDAY         
     FOR AMZ130-135-150.                                                        
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EST                   
     SATURDAY FOR AMZ154-156-158.                                               
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EST                  
     SATURDAY FOR AMZ152.                                                       
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
COLLINS                                                                         
</pre> nc                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC                                          
839 AM EST THU FEB 1 2007                                                       
.UPDATE...                                                                      
CANCELED THE FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY. ALL ASOS AND MESONET SITES                 
SEEM TO BE ABOVE FREEZING. NRN ZONES STILL SHOWING SOME SUB-                    
FREEZING DEWPOINTS BUT WET BULB TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE 32. KLTX              
SHOWING A WELL DEFINED BRIGHTBAND ACRS NRN BLADEN AND ROBESON AND               
TO A LESSER EXTENT MARLBORO. REPORTS FROM THESE LOCALES INDICATE                
THAT SOME IP AND WET SNOWFLAKES ARE MIXING WITH THE RAIN. ZFP AND               
GRIDS WILL IDICATE AS SUCH. RUC SOUNDINGS INIDCATE THAT BY 15Z OR               
16Z THAT WETBULB TEMP WILL BE FREEZING OR ABOVE THROUGH ABOUT                   
800MB AT WHICH TIME ANY AND ALL MIXING SHOULD BE OVER WITH.                     
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION...                                                             
/ISSUED 645 AM EST THU FEB 1 2007/                                              
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...                                                   
REGIONAL RADAR LOOPS AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOW PRECIPITATION HAS            
BEEN SLOW TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA. IT APPEARS THE GFS                        
DEPICTION...WHICH HAS BEEN THE MODEL OF CHOICE...IS A LITTLE TOO                
QUICK TO DEVELOP PRECIP. NONETHELESS...LIGHT RAIN WILL STILL DEVELOP            
LATER THIS MORNING ACROSS WESTERN AREAS WHERE TEMPERATURES ARE                  
CRITICAL.                                                                       
INTENSE SOUNDING SCRUTINY SHOW A WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR SOME                 
LIGHT FREEZING RAIN ACROSS WEST AND NORTHWESTERN AREAS AS WET BULB              
TEMPS ARE AT OR SLIGHTLY BELOW FREEZING. INTERESTING ENOUGH...IN THE            
FAR NORTHWEST CORNER OF THE AREA TOP DOWN ANALYSIS ACTUALLY SHOWS               
THE POSSIBILITY FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF SNOW...WITH WARM NOSE TEMPS.              
AROUND 2 DEGREES CELSIUS. WILL REFRAIN FROM THE MENTION OF SNOW                 
HOWEVER. ALL OF THIS SAID...HAVE EXPANDED THE FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY            
TO INCLUDE ROBESON...BLADEN COUNTIES IN NORTH CAROLINA WHILE ADDING             
DILLON...FLORENCE...AND MARION COUNTIES IN SOUTH CAROLINA. ALL                  
PRECIP. SHOULD BE RAIN BY 1500 UTC.                                             
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY...DEEP LAYER OMEGA...MAXIMIZED AROUND              
1800 UTC...WARRANTS CATEGORICAL POPS ALL AREAS. BASICALLY USED A                
BLEND OF GUIDANCE NUMBERS AS THERE ARE NO DISCERNIBLE TRENDS IN THE             
PRODUCTS. SHOULD SEE UPPER 40S ALONG THE COAST WITH AROUND 40                   
WESTERN AREAS.                                                                  
MID TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...                                          
NO CONCERNS ABOUT WINTRY PRECIPITATION THIS PERIOD AS TEMPS WILL                
STAY ABOVE FREEZING THROUGH TONIGHT. TWO MAIN AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE             
WILL MOVE NE ALONG A COASTAL TROUGH TONIGHT EACH ACCOMPANIED BY A               
SLUG OF DEEP MOISTURE EMBEDDED IN A DEEP SW FLOW. JUXTAPOSITION OF              
THE TROUGH WILL ULTIMATELY DETERMINE THE TRACK OF LOW PRESSURE AND              
THE AMOUNT OF RAINFALL THE AREA RECEIVES. AT THIS TIME...STORM TOTAL            
QPF LOOKS TO BE HIGHEST ALONG THE COAST WHERE AROUND 2 INCHES COULD             
FALL WITH AMOUNTS CLOSER TO AN INCH WELL INLAND. HOWEVER...THAT                 
BEING SAID...AMOUNTS OVER 3 INCHES WILL LIKELY BE LURKING JUST                  
OFFSHORE. ONE INCH TO AROUND TWO INCHES OF RAIN WILL BE ENOUGH FOR              
SIGNIFICANT PONDING OF WATER IN LOW LYING AREA...BUT A FLOOD WATCH              
IS NOT WARRANTED. THIS AMOUNT OF RAIN WILL LIKELY BE ENOUGH TO SEND             
SOME RIVERS TO OR OVER FLOOD STAGE DURING THE WEEKEND. RAIN SHOULD              
COME TO AN END FROM SW TO NE LATE TONIGHT...PERHAPS LINGERING TO                
AROUND DAYBREAK FAR NE.                                                         
LOW LEVEL INVERSION IS EXPECTED TO BREAK MID TO LATE MORNING ON FRI             
AND THIS SHOULD ALLOW DRIER AIR AND STRONGER WINDS ALOFT TO MIX DOWN            
TO THE SURFACE. SW TO W WINDS WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO REBOUND NICELY SO             
MOST AREAS SHOULD CRACK 50 DEG...PERHAPS TOUCHING NEAR 60 IN A FEW              
SPOTS.                                                                          
HIGH PRESSURE OF PACIFIC ORIGIN WILL BUILD SOLIDLY ACROSS THE                   
CAROLINAS FRI NIGHT AND SAT. TEMPS WILL BE NEAR NORMAL TO SLIGHTLY              
ABOVE AND NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED.                                         
LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...HIGH PRESSURE WILL               
GET SHUNTED S AND E LATE IN THE WEEKEND. MONDAY NIGHT...AN ARCTIC               
FRONT WILL BLAST ACROSS THE EASTERN CAROLINAS BRINGING IN THE                   
COLDEST AIRMASS OF THE SEASON. 1000-500 MB THICKNESSES ON THE 12Z               
GFS DROP AS LOW AS 519DM ACROSS THE NORTH CAROLINA                              
COUNTIES...EQUATING TO HIGHS ONLY IN THE 30S-LOW 40S WITH LOWS DEEP             
INTO THE TEENS. TUESDAY NIGHT WILL LIKELY BE THE COLDEST NIGHT EVEN             
IF THE GFS IS CORRECT IN KEEPING WINDS UP AND THE ATMOSPHERE FROM               
DECOUPLING. IF THE HIGH IS A LITTLE FARTHER EAST AND WINDS DO                   
DECOUPLE...WATCH FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF SINGLE-DIGIT LOWS FOR SOME              
INLAND AREAS...AND POTENTIALLY THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES SINCE FEB 5             
1996.                                                                           
AVIATION...UPDATED                                                              
LOOKS LIKE ONLY CHANCE OF FROZEN OR FREEZING PRECIP WILL BE FOR LBT             
ONLY THROUGH 14Z WITH ALL RAIN AFTERWARDS. CEILINGS WILL LOWER TO               
IFR OVER WESTERN TERMINALS BY MID MORNING WITH IFR CEILINGS ALONG               
THE COAST BY EARLY AFTERNOON. PRECIP WILL GET FAIRLY HEAVY LATER                
TODAY AS COASTAL LOW DEVELOPS ALONG WITH STRONG OMEGA. CEILINGS/VIS             
WILL STABLIZE...BOTH IFR...FOR ALMOST THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST             
PERIOD. WINDS WILL LIKLY BE VARIABLE ALONG THE COAST THIS AFTERNOON             
AND EVENING AS THE LOW TRACKS NORTHEASTWARD...WITH ALL NORTHEAST                
WINDS OVER FLO AND LBT.                                                         
MARINE...                                                                       
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...                                                   
STRONG SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE COASTAL              
WATERS LATER TODAY AS COASTAL TROUGH DEVELOPS AND HOVERS ALONG THE              
COAST. ALTHOUGH THE TIMING WILL BE DELAYED SOMEWHAT...WILL MAINTAIN             
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY ALL WATERS BEGINNING AT 9 AM THIS MORNING FOR              
THE SAKE OF CONTINUITY.                                                         
MID TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...                                          
COASTAL TROUGH WILL BE SITUATED ACROSS THE WATERS TONIGHT...WITH TWO            
AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE EXPECTED TO MOVE ALONG THIS TROUGH. WINDS WILL            
GET A LITTLE ERRATIC AS THESE AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE MOVE ACROSS THE             
AREA. GENERALLY STRONG SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED             
TONIGHT WITH THE PREDOMINATE WIND DIRECTION FROM THE N...SHIFTING TO            
THE NW OVERNIGHT. SEAS WILL BE PEAKING TONIGHT IN 6 TO 9 FT RANGE.              
NEAR SHORE...OFFSHORE WINDS WILL KEEP SEAS CLOSER TO 5 FT. WINDS                
WILL BE SLOW TO DIMINISH ON FRI AS GRADIENT WILL BE SLOW TO RELAX               
DUE TO PRESSURE DIFFERENCES BETWEEN DEPARTING AND INTENSIFYING AREA             
OF LOW PRESSURE TO NE AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE W.                 
WINDS AND SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO LOWER FRI NIGHT AND SAT AS HIGH                 
PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE WATERS.                                              
LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...                                    
A STALLED FRONT WILL REMAIN WELL OFFSHORE THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH               
COLD NORTHERLY FLOW CONTINUING THROUGH THE WEEKEND. RAW...BLUSTERY              
WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS                    
MOISTURE OVERRUNNING THE FRONT PRODUCES AREAS OF RAIN ACROSS THE                
COASTAL WATERS. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST FROM THE            
MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY SATURDAY INTO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS BY                
SUNDAY EVENING. THE 12Z GFS LOOKS VERY SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS                  
FORECAST AND IS THE BASIS FOR THIS WIND FORECAST. WAVEWATCH SEAS                
ALSO LOOK GOOD.                                                                 
&&                                                                              
.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
NC...NONE.                                                                      
SC...NONE.                                                                      
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 4 PM EST FRIDAY FOR            
     AMZ254-256.                                                                
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 7 PM EST FRIDAY FOR                
     AMZ250-252.                                                                
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
UPDATE...MBB                                                                    
SHORT TERM...SHK                                                                
MID TERM...RJD                                                                  
LONG TERM...TRA                                                                 
AVIATION...DL                                                                   
</pre> nc                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND                                         
433 AM CST THU FEB 1 2007                                                       
.SHORT TERM (TODAY-SUN)...LIGHT SNOW IS ONGOING ACROSS THE AREA                 
AND ALREADY APPROACHING A HALF INCH ACCUMULATED FOR SOME PLACES.                
ARCTIC FRONT WILL SOON REACH YBR AND YWG AND ENTER THE U.S. AT                  
LEAST BY 15Z. CLEARING LINE FOLLOWS THE FRONT BUT ANY CLEARING                  
WILL LAST ONLY A FEW HOURS WITH MORE HIGH CLOUDS ALREADY MOVING                 
SOUTH IN CENTRAL MANITOBA. AND CLEARING MIGHT NOT AS NOTICEABLE                 
ANYWAY BECAUSE OF BLOWING SNOW.                                                 
ONLY 25 TO 30 KNOTS OF WIND IS AVAILABLE TO MIX TOWARDS SURFACE                 
TODAY FROM 925-850 MB. SUFFICIENTLY ADIABATIC LAPSE RATE SHOULD                 
ALLOW THIS TO OCCUR AS COLD ADVECTION AT THOSE LEVELS CONTINUE                  
THROUGH THE DAY. BUT THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT ALONE IS                     
ENOUGH TO PRODUCE ABOUT 20 KNOTS SUSTAINED WHICH MAY PICK THE                   
ACCUMULATING FLUFF AND SUBSTANTIALLY REDUCE VISIBILITIES MOST OF                
TODAY. RUC SHOWS BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS IN EXCESS OF 20 KNOTS FROM                
THE NORTHERN RED RIVER VALLEY WESTWARD BY 18Z AND BELIEVE THIS IS               
SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW ADVISORY CONDITIONS...              
AND DID SO FOR JUST WEST OF THE VALLEY. BUT WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR              
A POSSIBLE EXTENSION OF THE ADVISORY THROUGH THE VALLEY NORTH OF                
FARGO.                                                                          
BITTER COLD FOLLOWS FOR TONIGHT AND A LONG TERM WIND CHILL                      
ADVISORY WILL ALMOST CERTAINLY BE NECESSARY...POSSIBLY LASTING                  
UNTIL WE REACH WIND CHILL WARNING CRITERIA ACROSS MOST OF THE                   
REGION FOR FRIDAY NIGHT/SAT MORNING. MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS                   
FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY WILL NOT HELP KEEP THE SURFACE MUCH                     
WARMER AS THEY USUALLY DO THIS TIME OF YEAR. IN-CLOUD TEMPERATURES              
IN EXCESS OF -30C WILL NOT RADIATE ENOUGH TO WARM THE SURFACE.                  
.LONG TERM...NO CHANGE TO EXTENDED FORECAST BEYOND SUNDAY. MEX                  
GUIDANCE AND GFS SHOW GOOD PERSISTENCE.                                         
&&                                                                              
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
ND...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM CST THIS            
     AFTERNOON FOR NDZ006-007-014-015-024-026-054.                              
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 9 PM CST THIS EVENING           
     FOR NDZ028-038-049-052-053.                                                
MN...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
GV/                                                                             
</pre> nd                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK                                              
954 PM CST WED JAN 31 2007                                                      
.UPDATE...                                                                      
A FEW AREAS OF LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE/RAIN CONTINUE OVER PORTIONS               
OF OKLAHOMA THIS EVENING. SECOND ROUND ORGANIZING OVER WEST TEXAS               
THIS EVENING AND APPEARS TO BE GOING AS PLANNED. LATEST NAM RUN                 
CONTINUES TO INDICATE FAIRLY PRONOUNCED BAND OF FRONTOGENETICAL                 
FORCING NEAR THE I-40 CORRIDOR TOMORROW MORNING...WHICH RAISES A                
CONCERN FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF 4 TO 6 INCH TOTALS. LAST RUN OF THE              
SREF AND 00Z GFS HAVE BACKED OFF...GFS WAY OFF...FROM PREVIOUS                  
POTENTIAL. GIVEN THE LATEST GUIDANCE...AND THE FACT THAT WE ARE                 
ALREADY MENTIONING BANDED TOTALS OF 4+...WILL HOLD OFF ON A HEAVY               
SNOW WARNING. MIDSHIFT WILL MONITOR RADAR/SATELLITE TRENDS AND                  
LATEST GUIDANCE AND ISSUE IF NECESSARY.                                         
ALSO RAISED POPS CONSIDERABLY ACROSS MAINLY NORTHWEST THIRD OF                  
OKLAHOMA THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY AS NORTHWEST FLOW SYSTEM MOVES               
IN. THESE SYSTEM CAN BE VERY EFFICIENT...ESPECIALLY GIVEN                       
ACCOMPANYING LOW-MID LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE.                                     
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 406 PM CST WED JAN 31 2007/                         
DISCUSSION...SNOW THIS MORNING WAS MOST CONCENTRATED OVER                       
NORTHERN OKLAHOMA...WITH 1 TO 2 INCHES. LIGHT SNOW AND SLEET                    
ELSEWHERE WAS MORE INTERMITTENT...BUT THE FREEZING DRIZZLE WHICH                
FOLLOWED HAS GREATLY IMPACTED TRAVEL. THIS OCCURRED AS WESTERLY                 
MID LEVEL WINDS AND SUBSIDENCE REMOVED MOISTURE FROM THE ICE                    
CRYSTAL GROWTH ZONE...WHILE MOIST ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE CONTINUED AT               
LOWER LEVELS. THERE IS A DISTINCT BACK EDGE TO THE UPGLIDE PUSHING              
THROUGH CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA THIS AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT              
WILL ALSO MOVE INTO WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTH TEXAS THIS                       
EVENING...SO LOW LEVEL DOWNGLIDE WILL BE THE RULE                               
OVERNIGHT...HOPEFULLY PREVENTING ANY MORE FREEZING DRIZZLE.                     
MEANWHILE...WE STILL APPEAR ON TRACK TO RECEIVE A SWATH OF SNOW                 
LATE TONIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING. ALTHOUGH NOT ESPECIALLY                      
HEAVY...ACCUMULATIONS WILL OCCUR EITHER SIDE OF THE THURSDAY                    
MORNING COMMUTE...AGAIN IMPACTING TRAVEL. WE ARE ALSO CONCERNED                 
THAT FREEZING RAIN WILL IMPACT PARTS OF SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA AND                   
WESTERN NORTH TEXAS LATER TONIGHT. ORIGINALLY...THIS WAS EXPECTED               
TO BE RAIN...BUT TEMPERATURES ARE A COUPLE OF DEGREES COOLER THAN               
EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON. DEWPOINTS ARE STILL WELL BELOW                         
FREEZING...AND SURFACE WINDS WILL SWING AROUND TO EAST AND                      
NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT. THEREFORE...WILL ISSUE A WINTER WEATHER                    
ADVISORY FOR A ROW OF COUNTIES SOUTH OF THE SNOW ADVISORY. REALLY               
DIFFICULT TO DRAW THE FREEZING LINE EVEN 12 HOURS AHEAD OF                      
TIME...BUT OUR ADVISORY WILL BE BASED LARGELY ON THE 18Z RUC                    
SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND SHORT RANGE ENSEMBLE 850 MB TEMPS.                     
WHILE MOST AREAS WILL SEE ADDITIONAL PRECIP...THERE IS STILL BELOW              
AVERAGE CONFIDENCE IN WHERE TO PLACE THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS. THE NAM               
HAS LATCHED ONTO THE LOW LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS NEAR THE RED                       
RIVER...WHILE THE GFS PAINTS MORE SNOW ALONG THE MID LEVEL FRONT                
FROM WESTERN INTO CENTRAL OKLAHOMA. BOTH AREAS ARE LIKELY TO SEE                
LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS...BUT THE MORE CONSISTENT SIGNAL...AND LESS                 
CHANCE FOR MELTING IS WITH THE ACTIVITY FORECAST TO SURROUND INTERSTATE         
40 BOTH NORTH AND SOUTH. WILL CONTINUE WITH OUR FORECAST OF 1 TO 3              
INCHES OF SNOW OVER A BROAD AREA...BUT MESOSCALE BANDING AND/OR                 
SOME WEAK CONVECTION MAY LEAD TO HIGHER TOTALS IN SMALL AREAS.                  
WHATEVER DOES FALL WILL LIKELY REMAIN ON THE GROUND THROUGH THE                 
WEEKEND...AS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT REMAIN CLOUDY...AND AN                
ARCTIC FRONT ARRIVES FRIDAY. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL ALSO LINGER                
IN THE AREA LATE THURSDAY...AND LIGHT SNOW OR FREEZING RAIN SEEMS               
A POSSIBILITY. WILL INCREASE TO CHANCE POPS ALONG THE STALLED LOW               
LEVEL FRONT NEAR THE RED RIVER...AND ALONG THE APPROACHING ARCTIC               
FRONT IN THE NORTHWEST. EXPECT THIS PRECIP WOULD BE LIGHT...BUT AS              
WE HAVE SEEN...IT DOES NOT TAKE MUCH TO CAUSE PROBLEMS.                         
IN THE EXTENDED...THE LONGWAVE PATTERN SEEMS UNLIKELY TO                        
BUDGE...WITH WHAT LOOKS LIKE AN OMEGA BLOCK ON AN UNUSUALLY LARGE               
SCALE...FROM THE PACIFIC ACROSS NORTH AMERICA. THE RIDGE IN THE                 
BLOCK MAY TEND TO MOVE EAST BUT ALSO BE BATTED BACK BY LOW LEVEL                
COLD AIR INTRUSIONS OUT OF CENTRAL CANADA. SO WILL CONTINUE A COOL              
FORECAST...BUT WITH A VERY SLOW WARMING TREND.                                  
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  25  32  20  26 /  90  80  40  40                              
HOBART OK         26  31  21  28 /  90  60  40  40                              
WICHITA FALLS TX  32  36  26  32 /  80  50  30  30                              
GAGE OK           20  29  16  21 /  60  20  60  60                              
PONCA CITY OK     20  29  16  22 /  60  50  40  40                              
DURANT OK         32  38  28  35 /  80  80  20  30                              
&&                                                                              
.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
OK...SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 12 PM CST THURSDAY FOR OKZ004>044.                     
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 12 PM CST THURSDAY FOR OKZ045>048-           
     051-052.                                                                   
TX...SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 12 PM CST THURSDAY FOR TXZ083.                         
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 12 PM CST THURSDAY FOR TXZ084>086.           
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
11/25                                                                           
</pre> ok                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK                                              
406 PM CST WED JAN 31 2007                                                      
.DISCUSSION...SNOW THIS MORNING WAS MOST CONCENTRATED OVER                      
NORTHERN OKLAHOMA...WITH 1 TO 2 INCHES. LIGHT SNOW AND SLEET                    
ELSEWHERE WAS MORE INTERMITTENT...BUT THE FREEZING DRIZZLE WHICH                
FOLLOWED HAS GREATLY IMPACTED TRAVEL. THIS OCCURRED AS WESTERLY                 
MID LEVEL WINDS AND SUBSIDENCE REMOVED MOISTURE FROM THE ICE                    
CRYSTAL GROWTH ZONE...WHILE MOIST ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE CONTINUED AT               
LOWER LEVELS. THERE IS A DISTINCT BACK EDGE TO THE UPGLIDE PUSHING              
THROUGH CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA THIS AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT              
WILL ALSO MOVE INTO WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTH TEXAS THIS                       
EVENING...SO LOW LEVEL DOWNGLIDE WILL BE THE RULE                               
OVERNIGHT...HOPEFULLY PREVENTING ANY MORE FREEZING DRIZZLE.                     
MEANWHILE...WE STILL APPEAR ON TRACK TO RECEIVE A SWATH OF SNOW                 
LATE TONIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING. ALTHOUGH NOT ESPECIALLY                      
HEAVY...ACCUMULATIONS WILL OCCUR EITHER SIDE OF THE THURSDAY                    
MORNING COMMUTE...AGAIN IMPACTING TRAVEL. WE ARE ALSO CONCERNED                 
THAT FREEZING RAIN WILL IMPACT PARTS OF SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA AND                   
WESTERN NORTH TEXAS LATER TONIGHT. ORIGINALLY...THIS WAS EXPECTED               
TO BE RAIN...BUT TEMPERATURES ARE A COUPLE OF DEGREES COOLER THAN               
EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON. DEWPOINTS ARE STILL WELL BELOW                         
FREEZING...AND SURFACE WINDS WILL SWING AROUND TO EAST AND                      
NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT. THEREFORE...WILL ISSUE A WINTER WEATHER                    
ADVISORY FOR A ROW OF COUNTIES SOUTH OF THE SNOW ADVISORY. REALLY               
DIFFICULT TO DRAW THE FREEZING LINE EVEN 12 HOURS AHEAD OF                      
TIME...BUT OUR ADVISORY WILL BE BASED LARGELY ON THE 18Z RUC                    
SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND SHORT RANGE ENSEMBLE 850 MB TEMPS.                     
WHILE MOST AREAS WILL SEE ADDITIONAL PRECIP...THERE IS STILL BELOW              
AVERAGE CONFIDENCE IN WHERE TO PLACE THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS. THE NAM               
HAS LATCHED ONTO THE LOW LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS NEAR THE RED                       
RIVER...WHILE THE GFS PAINTS MORE SNOW ALONG THE MID LEVEL FRONT                
FROM WESTERN INTO CENTRAL OKLAHOMA. BOTH AREAS ARE LIKELY TO SEE                
LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS...BUT THE MORE CONSISTENT SIGNAL...AND LESS                 
CHANCE FOR MELTING IS WITH THE ACTIVITY FORECAST TO SURROUND INTERSTATE         
40 BOTH NORTH AND SOUTH. WILL CONTINUE WITH OUR FORECAST OF 1 TO 3              
INCHES OF SNOW OVER A BROAD AREA...BUT MESOSCALE BANDING AND/OR                 
SOME WEAK CONVECTION MAY LEAD TO HIGHER TOTALS IN SMALL AREAS.                  
WHATEVER DOES FALL WILL LIKELY REMAIN ON THE GROUND THROUGH THE                 
WEEKEND...AS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT REMAIN CLOUDY...AND AN                
ARCTIC FRONT ARRIVES FRIDAY. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL ALSO LINGER                
IN THE AREA LATE THURSDAY...AND LIGHT SNOW OR FREEZING RAIN SEEMS               
A POSSIBILITY. WILL INCREASE TO CHANCE POPS ALONG THE STALLED LOW               
LEVEL FRONT NEAR THE RED RIVER...AND ALONG THE APPROACHING ARCTIC               
FRONT IN THE NORTHWEST. EXPECT THIS PRECIP WOULD BE LIGHT...BUT AS              
WE HAVE SEEN...IT DOES NOT TAKE MUCH TO CAUSE PROBLEMS.                         
IN THE EXTENDED...THE LONGWAVE PATTERN SEEMS UNLIKELY TO                        
BUDGE...WITH WHAT LOOKS LIKE AN OMEGA BLOCK ON AN UNUSUALLY LARGE               
SCALE...FROM THE PACIFIC ACROSS NORTH AMERICA. THE RIDGE IN THE                 
BLOCK MAY TEND TO MOVE EAST BUT ALSO BE BATTED BACK BY LOW LEVEL                
COLD AIR INTRUSIONS OUT OF CENTRAL CANADA. SO WILL CONTINUE A COOL              
FORECAST...BUT WITH A VERY SLOW WARMING TREND.                                  
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  27  32  20  26 /  90  70  20  30                              
HOBART OK         27  31  21  28 /  90  40  30  30                              
WICHITA FALLS TX  32  36  26  32 /  80  40  30  30                              
GAGE OK           20  29  16  21 /  60  20  30  30                              
PONCA CITY OK     21  29  16  22 /  60  50  20  20                              
DURANT OK         32  38  28  35 /  80  70  30  20                              
&&                                                                              
.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
OK...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR                  
     OKZ014>019-021>032-040-042.                                                
     SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 12 PM CST THURSDAY FOR OKZ014>019-021>044.             
     SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 12 PM CST THURSDAY FOR OKZ004>013-020.                 
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 12 PM CST THURSDAY FOR OKZ045>048-           
     051-052.                                                                   
TX...SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 12 PM CST THURSDAY FOR TXZ083.                         
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 12 PM CST THURSDAY FOR TXZ084>086.           
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
BURKE/SIX                                                                       
</pre> ok                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN                                           
813 PM CST WED JAN 31 2007                                                      
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
ALREADY HAVE HAD A QUICK SHOT OF SNOW ACROSS SOUTHERN HALF OF                   
MIDDLE TN THIS EVE...WITH AREAS OVER ERN AR AND WRN TN GETTING UP               
TO 2 INCHES AS IT MOVED ACROSS THAT AREA. SOME OF OUR COUNTIES                  
HAVE LIKELY HAD A DUSTING...A PREVIEW IF YOU WILL. LOOKING NOW AT               
BAND OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SLEET ACROSS CNTRL MS MOVING NE...THIS                
WILL POSSIBLY BE OUR FIRST MEASURABLE EPISODE FOR THIS EVENT...AND              
SHOULD BE IN FORM OF SNOW AS RUC SOUNDING FOR FYM SHOWS ALL SNOW                
ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN TN UNTIL ABOUT 09Z. MAY HAVE TO UPDATE FOR                  
TIMING IF THIS BAND MOVES IN B4 MIDNITE.                                        
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 149 PM CST WED JAN 31 2007/                         
SHORT TERM...MODELS ARE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT FOR MID TN                      
WX...ESPECIALLY FOR A WINTER EVENT. GFS SEEMS CONSISTENT WITH                   
THERMAL PROFILES FROM PREVIOUS RUN AND NAM ACTUALLY APPEARS A                   
LITTLE COLDER IN THE NORTH AND PLATEAU. THIS MAY MEAN                           
PRECIPITATION WILL STAY SNOW LONGER THEN PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT FOR                 
THE NORTH HALF. QPF AND SNOWFALL OUTPUT FROM MODELS ACTUALLY IN                 
PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT AS WELL FOR MID TN. WITH ALL OF THIS                      
SAID...SNOW IS HARD TO COME BY IN THIS REGION SO THERE ARE MANY                 
THINGS THAT CAN SPOIL THIS EVENT (LACK OF MOISTURE...TOO WARM).                 
THIS FORECAST IS NOT A BIG CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS PACKAGE...BUT                   
THE LATEST MODEL DATA HAVE HELPED LEAN US TOWARD A STRONGER                     
HEADLINE ON THE NORTH PLATEAU.                                                  
AIR MASS IN PLACE IS COLD...TEMPERATURES NOT REACHING PROJECTED                 
HIGHS TODAY ALTHOUGH WE MAY JUMP A FEW MORE DEGREES INTO THE LOW                
30S LATE THIS AFTERNOON. MOISTURE WILL SPREAD RAPIDLY ACROSS THE                
REGION TONIGHT WITH ALL SIGNS POINTING TOWARD SNOW. VERY DRY LOW                
LEVELS WILL TAKE A WHILE TO MOISTEN...BUT MOST AREAS COULD HAVE                 
AROUND 1 INCH BY DAYBREAK THURSDAY.                                             
FOR SOUTHERN TIER OF COUNTIES...SNOW WILL OCCUR TONIGHT WITH MAYBE              
AN INCH...BUT WILL QUICKLY TRANSITION TO RAIN THURSDAY MORNING.                 
THERE MAY BE A MESSY TIME WITH FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET...BUT                    
TEMPERATURES SHOULD WARM WELL INTO THE 30S BY LATE MORNING.                     
FOR AREAS FARTHER NORTH...SNOW WILL DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT AND                    
CONTINUE THROUGH MID MORNING THURSDAY. THEN THE MIX OF CHANGE TO                
SLEET AND RAIN WILL OCCUR AFTER 16Z WITH TEMPERATURES RISING ABOVE              
FREEZING. THESE AREAS INCLUDING NASHVILLE WILL PROBABLY SEE 1 TO 2              
INCHES BEFORE MIDDAY.                                                           
MOST OF THE MID STATE WILL BE UNDER AN ADVISORY WHILE THE HIGHER                
ELEVATIONS OF THE NORTH PLATEAU ARE EXPECTED TO REACH WINTER STORM              
WARNING CRITERIA. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST MAINLY SNOW THROUGH                
MUCH OF THE DAY FOR CROSSVILLE AND JAMESTOWN...SO WE ARE FORECASTING UP         
TO 4 INCHES THERE.                                                              
STILL A CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION LATE THURSDAY AND INTO THE                      
NIGHT...BUT MARGINAL TEMPERATURES AND LIGHT PRECIP...SO NOT                     
CALLING FOR ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS AT THIS TIME. TEMPERATES MAY               
FALL BELOW FREEZING CAUSING MORE TRAVEL PROBLEMS.                               
LONG TERM...A SERIES OF COLD BLASTS WILL INVADE THE REGION IN THE               
EXTENDED FORECAST. DISTURBANCES MAY BRING PERIODS OF SNOW SHOWERS               
AND LOCALIZED MINOR SNOW ACCUMULATIONS. FOR NOW JUST MENTIONING                 
SOME FLURRIES WITH MOST SIGNIFICANT FRONTS. FOCUS SHOULD BE ON                  
VERY COLD READINGS...WHICH WILL HAVE MOST AREAS IN THE SINGLE                   
DIGITS FOR LOWS AND ONLY 20S FOR HIGHS EARLY NEXT WEEK.                         
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
NASHVILLE    26  37  30  36 /  90 100  70  10                                   
CLARKSVILLE  26  33  28  34 /  90 100  70  10                                   
CROSSVILLE   25  33  29  33 /  90 100  70  20                                   
&&                                                                              
.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT THURSDAY TO 4 PM THURSDAY FOR                
THE FOLLOWING ZONES: CUMBERLAND...FENTRESS...OVERTON...PICKETT...               
PUTNAM...VAN BUREN...AND WHITE.                                                 
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT THURSDAY TO 4 PM THURSDAY                 
FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: BENTON...CANNON...CHEATHAM...CLAY...                   
DAVIDSON...DEKALB...DICKSON...HICKMAN...HOUSTON...HUMPHREYS...                  
JACKSON...MACON...MONTGOMERY...PERRY...ROBERTSON...RUTHERFORD...                
SMITH...STEWART...SUMNER...TROUSDALE...WARREN...WILLIAMSON...AND                
WILSON.                                                                         
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT THURSDAY TO 10 AM THURSDAY                
FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: BEDFORD...COFFEE...GILES...GRUNDY...                   
LAWRENCE...LEWIS...MARSHALL...MAURY...AND WAYNE.                                
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
MAG                                                                             
</pre> tn                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN                                             
342 PM CST WED JAN 31 2007                                                      
.UPDATE...                                                                      
QUICK UPDATE TO ADD MISSISSIPPI COUNTY IN ARKANSAS AND LAKE...DYER              
AND OBION COUNTIES IN TENNESSEE TO THE SNOW ADVISORTY. RADAR AND SURFACE        
TRENDS INDICATE THE SNOW MOVING EAST. ROAD CONDITIONS GETTING                   
SLIPPERY VERY QUICKLY DUE TO COLD TEMPERATURES. LATEST RUC MODEL SOME           
HELP WITH PROGRESSION OF SNOWFALL...BUT STRONGER LOW LEVEL COLD AIR THAN        
ANTICIPATED PROVIDING BETTER THAN FORECAST ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE FOR               
LIFTED MOTION                                                                   
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 302 PM CST WED JAN 31 2007/                         
SYNOPSIS...                                                                     
COLD HIGH RETREATING OFF THE EAST COAST.  RADAR TRENDS SHOW                     
PRECIPITATION BREAKING OUT ACROSS THE PLAINS AND ARKANSAS THIS AFTERNOON.       
WITH THE LOW LEVELS SO DRY...MUCH OF THE PRECIPITATION INDICATED                
ON RADAR IS NOT REACHING THE GROUND. HOWEVER OVER NORTHEAST                     
ARKANSAS IT IS. WITH LOW LEVELS SO COLD SNOWFALL ACCUMULATING ON                
ROADS FAST. ACTUAL TEMPERATURES COLDER THAN THE MODELS BY                       
GENERALLY 5 DEGREES. WITH MODELS NOT HANDLING THE LOW LEVEL                     
TEMPERATURES AT THIS TIME THIS MAY HAVE IMPLICATIONS TO OUR SHORT               
TERM FORECAST.                                                                  
SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)...                                  
RADAR TRENDS SHOW SNOWFALL TO CONTINUE OVER NORTHEAST ARKANSAS FOR              
SOME TIME. ACCUMULATIONS OF AROUND AN INCH ARE EXPECTED. WITH                   
TEMPS IN THE LOWER 20S ALL OF THE SNOW IS STICKING NICELY. HAVE                 
DECIDED TO GO WITH AN ADVISORY THROUGH MID-MORNING THURSDAY.                    
FOR THE REST OF THE AREA MIXED PRECIPITATION EXPECTED AFTER                     
MIDNIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY FOR MUCH OF THE MID-SOUTH. MUCH OF THE                
LIFT FOR THIS EVENT IS ISENTROPIC AND BROAD IN NATURE. ALTHOUGH                 
JET STREAK IS FAIRLY STRONG THERE IS LITTLE IN THE WAY OF SURFACE               
CYCLOGENESIS. CONSEQUENTLY PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WILL BE BROAD AND              
LIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. REGARDLESS...IT DOESN`T TAKE MUCH                 
WINTER PRECIPITATION TO CAUSE TRAVEL ISSUES IN THE MIDSOUTH. THIS               
COUPLED WITH THE FIRST EVENT OF THE SEASON AND WE HAVE A NEED TO                
PINPOINT THE IMPACTS.                                                           
OUR PRECIPITATION WILL COME IN TWO BURSTS. TONIGHT...MIXED                      
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP WITH THE HEAVIEST OCCURRING                
IN NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI IN THE LOCATION OF THE BEST ISENTROPIC                 
LIFT AND MOISTURE. THE PROBLEM IS THERMAL PROFILES INDICATE AN                  
ONSET OF FREEZING RAIN FROM FULTON TO TUPELO TO OXFORD. THIS IS                 
WHERE TRAVEL WILL BE IMPACTED MOST WITH PRECIPITATION TURNING OVER              
TO RAIN LATER ON THURSDAY. AN ADVISORY WILL BE NEEDED IN THIS AREA              
LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY.                                                
TO THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST OF THIS AREA...THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD              
BEGIN AS SNOW...HOWEVER AMOUNTS ARE IN QUESTION WITH ACCUMULATIONS              
RANGING FROM AN INCH TO ONLY A DUSTING. THIS MAKES IT HARD TO                   
DETERMINE WHETHER WE SHOULD ISSUE AN ADVISORY. FOR NOW WE`LL HOLD               
OFF AND WAIT ON ANY WIDESPREAD ADVISORIES...EXCEPT IN NORTHEAST                 
ARKANSAS AND MISSOURI BOOTHEEL...UNTIL WE CAN GET A BETTER HANDLE               
ON THE EVOLUTION OF THE PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS.                                  
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT ARE PROBLEMATIC.  ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE            
MOVES INTO MS/AL RESULTING IN PRECIPITATION REDEVELOPING IN THE                 
AFTERNOON.  AGAIN QUESTION WILL BE THE TYPE.  FOR NOW BELIEVE THE               
MODEL THERMAL PROFILES MAY BE TOO WARM IN THE LOWER LEVELS (THEY                
SUGGEST A DRY ADIABATIC PROFILE WITH PRECIPITATION?) WILL KEEP RAIN             
FOR THE SOUTH THIRD OF THE FORECAST AREA...A MIX OF THE MIDDLE THIRD            
AND ALL SNOW TO THE NORTH.  AGAIN PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WILL BE                 
LIGHT...BUT DEPENDING ON HOW TEMPERATURES PLAY OUT A WINTER WEATHER             
ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED.                                                         
WILL USE THE UKMET/GFS/CANADIAN FOR THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY.  NAM             
IS TOO SLOW WITH COLD AIR SEEPING IN.  CONSEQUENTLY WILL GO LOWER               
THAN GUIDANCE WITH FLURRIES POSSIBLE IN THE STRONG COLD AIR                     
ADVECTION.  OVERALL THE TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE THROUGH THIS PERIOD                
LOOKS WARM.  BUT THIS SHOULD NOT BE SURPRISING WITH LOW LEVEL COLD              
AIR IN PLACE. ...BELLES...                                                      
LONG TERM (SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...LONG RANGE MODELS IN                   
GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH AN ARCTIC LOW PINWHEELING AROUND HUDSON BAY              
THROUGH THE PERIOD AND A LONGWAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE LOWER               
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ON SUNDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH              
THE REGION ON MONDAY WITH COLD HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING BACK INTO                 
THE AREA FOR NEXT WEEK. ADJUSTED TEMPERATURES TOWARD THE LOW END                
OF THE GFS ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE SINCE OPERATIONAL GFS NUMERICAL                    
GUIDANCE SEEMS TO BE TOO WARM THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK                 
BASED ON UPPER AIR PATTERN AND VERY COLD 850MB TEMPERATURES.                    
 ...CJC...                                                                      
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
MEM  27  38  30  38 /  80 100  60  10                                           
MKL  23  36  28  35 /  80  90  60  10                                           
JBR  20  34  24  34 /  80  90  60  10                                           
TUP  29  39  33  41 /  90 100  60  10                                           
&&                                                                              
.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
AR...SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST THURSDAY FOR CLAY-CRAIGHEAD-GREENE-           
     LAWRENCE-MISSISSIPPI-RANDOLPH.                                             
MO...SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST THURSDAY FOR DUNKLIN-PEMISCOT.                
MS...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM CST                  
     THURSDAY FOR ALCORN-BENTON(MS)-ITAWAMBA-LAFAYETTE-LEE(MS)-                 
     MARSHALL-PONTOTOC-PRENTISS-TIPPAH-TISHOMINGO-UNION.                        
TN...SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST THURSDAY FOR DYER-LAKE-OBION.                 
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM CST                  
     THURSDAY FOR HARDEMAN-HARDIN-MCNAIRY.                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</pre> tn                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE                                               
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX                                          
300 PM CST THU FEB 1 2007                                                       
.AVIATION...                                                                    
300 PM CST THU FEB 1 2007                                                       
HAVE UPDATED THE METROPLEX AIRPORT FOR TWO REASONS:                             
1. THE RAIN IS STARTING TO MIX WITH SLEET AND SNOW ACROSS THE                   
   THE AREA NORTH AND WEST OF THE TAF SITES. ALSO KAFW REPORTED                 
   -RAPL DURING THE LAST HOUR AND WE HAVE HAD -RASN HERE AT THE                 
   WFO. THUS HAVE ADDED -RAPLSN TO THE TAFS. TEMPERATURES                       
   ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING AT THE METROPLEX                       
   TAF SITES THROUGH MIDNIGHT...BUT A MIXTURE OF RAIN AND SNOW                  
   MAY CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS.                                      
2. THE PREVIOUS FORECAST FOR AN IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR CEILINGS                    
   EARLY THIS EVENING LOOKS TO BE TOO OPTIMISTIC. WITH ON-GOING                 
   PRECIPITATION...THE CEILINGS ARE UNLIKELY TO IMPROVE MUCH.  #58              
1145 AM CST THU FEB 1 2007                                                      
LOW CLOUDS AND REDUCED VISIBILITIES WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE TAF                
SITES FOR THE REST OF TODAY. CEILINGS MAY BRIEFLY RISE TO MVFR                  
BUT HAVE GENERALLY KEPT PREVAILING IFR CEILINGS THROUGH 23Z.                    
AFTERWARDS...WE SHOULD SEE A SLIGHT IMPROVEMENT TO LOW END MVFR                 
INTO THE EVENING...BEFORE CEILINGS FALL BACK INTO THE IFR CATEGORY              
AFTER MIDNIGHT. PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN JUST RAIN                   
THROUGH THIS EVENING AT THE METROPLEX SITES. HAVE LEFT OUT ANY                  
MENTION OF PRECIPITATION FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD...AS POPS WILL BE             
LOW. HOWEVER...IF PRECIPITATION DOES CONTINUE...WE COULD SEE SOME               
SLEET MIX IN WITH THE RAIN TOWARD MIDNIGHT...AND A SOME LIGHT                   
SLEET/SNOW LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. WE WILL KEEP KEEP AN               
EYE ON THE DEVELOPING SITUATION...AND MAY NEED TO ADD SOME WINTRY               
PRECIPITATION FOR THE METROPLEX TAFS WITH AN UPDATE LATER THIS                  
AFTERNOON. FARTHER SOUTH...IT WILL BE JUST RAIN AT WACO...WITH AN               
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON. NORTHERLY FLOW WILL              
PREVAIL AT THE METROPLEX TAF SITES. SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW AT WACO WILL             
COME AROUND TO THE EAST AND NORTHEAST LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING.             
#58                                                                             
&&                                                                              
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
936 AM CST THU FEB 1 2007                                                       
HAVE UPDATED ZONES TO INCLUDE THUNDER IN THE WESTERN HALF OF THE                
FORECAST AREA AS BOTH THE NAM AND GFS INDICATED 700-500MB LAPSE                 
RATES INCREASING TO 7.0-7.5 C/KM IN THIS AREA. THERE ARE A COUPLE               
DECENT STORMS JUST TO THE SW OF THE CWA ALREADY. ALSO...WILL                    
CONTINUE MENTION OF AREAS OF FOG AREAWIDE AT LEAST THROUGH 18Z                  
WITH MANY STATIONS STILL REPORTING VISBYS IN THE 1-2 MI RANGE.                  
ALSO ADJUSTED DEWPOINTS.  /13                                                   
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 539 AM CST THU FEB 1 2007/                          
UPDATE...                                                                       
PRECIP SHIELD IS EXPANDING A BIT MORE THAN EARLIER ANTICIPATED. HAVE            
INCREASED POPS THIS MORNING AND LINGERED PRECIP LONGER THIS                     
AFTERNOON AND EVENING DUE TO SECOND IMPULSE TRIGGERING MORE PRECIP              
OVER WEST TX. UPDATED PRODUCTS AVAILABLE SHORTLY.                               
SCHULTZ                                                                         
AVIATION...                                                                     
FOR THE 12Z TAFS...-RA SHOULD BE PREVAILING THROUGH THE MID                     
AFTERNOON HOURS. VSBYS MAY TEMPORARILY DROP INTO IFR/LIFR CAT THIS              
MORNING...WITH LIFR/VLIFR CIGS. VSBYS AND CIGS SHOULD RECOVER INTO              
MVFR CAT BY THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING HOURS AS PRECIP                  
TAPERS OFF.                                                                     
05/21                                                                           
DISCUSSION..../ISSUED 416 AM CST THU FEB 1 2007/                                
SHORTWAVE ENERGY IS ENTERING WEST TEXAS THIS MORNING...AND MID LEVEL            
SHEAR AXIS ORIENTATION IS ALIGNED WELL WITH PRECIP SHIELD. RAIN                 
EXTENDS FROM NEAR DFW TO SOUTH OF SJT AT 10Z. SURFACE TEMPS ALONG               
THE RED RIVER ARE THE MAIN SHORT TERM FOCUS AS PRECIP MOVES INTO THE            
AREA. RUC ANALYSIS OF 850MB TEMPS KEEPS THE PUSH OF BELOW 0C TEMPS              
BEHIND THE PROGRESSION OF PRECIPITATION. THIS ANALYSIS SEEMS TO FIT             
WELL WITH THE PUSH OF THE COLD AIR AT THE SURFACE /PER SFC OBS/                 
WHICH IS BEST OVER FAR WESTERN OK AND THE TX PANHANDLE. FOR                     
NOW...WILL KEEP PRECIP LIQUID IN THE ZONES TODAY...BUT WILL                     
REEVALUATE POST 12Z SOUNDINGS AND INCOMING OBS...AND UPDATE IF                  
NEEDED.                                                                         
BOTH THE GFS AND NAM MAINTAIN A SATURATED THERMAL PROFILE BELOW                 
FREEZING AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT ALONG THE RED RIVER. WE WILL                    
INCREASE POPS INTO THE CHC CATEGORY FOR OUR NORTHERN TIER OF ZONES              
AND EXPAND SLT CHC SOUTHWARD TO JUST NORTH OF THE METROPLEX. LITTLE             
SNOW ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED...BUT WILL LET DAYSHIFT REEVALUATE AND            
DETERMINE THE NEED FOR HEADLINES. WE EXPECT THE COLUMN TO QUICKLY               
DRY FROM THE TOP DOWN...RESULTING IN JUST A SLT CHC FOR FLURRIES                
AFTER SUNRISE ON FRIDAY OVER OUR NORTHERN ZONES. ATTM...PROFILES                
APPEAR TOO DRY ON SAT FOR ANY PRECIP AND HAVE REMOVED ISOLATED                  
FLURRIES FROM THE GRIDS.                                                        
PATTERN WISE...AMPLIFIED RIDGE MOVING ONTO THE PACIFIC COAST AND                
STRONG HUDSON BAY LOW WILL SET THE STAGE FOR SEVERAL SHOTS OF COLD              
AIR TO DROP DOWN INTO THE CENTRAL CONUS. SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL                 
SETTLE INTO NORTH TX ON FRIDAY. THE AREA CAN EXPECT BELOW NORMAL                
TEMPS...RANGING FROM THE MID 30S TO THE LOWER 50S. AS THE UPPER                 
RIDGE AND TROUGH BOTH TRANSLATE A BIT FARTHER EAST...COLD HIGH                  
PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL SHOOT NORTHEAST OF OUR AREA...RESULTING IN                
MINIMAL INFLUENCE OVER OUR NORTHEASTERN ZONES. SOME RETURN FLOW AND             
BUILDING HEIGHTS SHOULD SET UP A SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST GRADIENT ON             
TEMPS SUN THROUGH TUES. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE                     
EXTENDED. JUST BEYOND THE SCOPE OF THIS FORECAST...ECMWF AND UKMET              
SUGGEST A STRONG SURFACE HIGH WILL PLUNGE INTO THE CENTRAL CONUS                
LATE NEXT WEEK AND PUSH ANOTHER COLD FRONT INTO NORTH TX.                       
SCHULTZ                                                                         
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  42  30  38  23 / 100  20  10  10                          
WACO, TX              50  36  45  27 / 100  10  10  10                          
PARIS, TX             40  27  35  22 / 100  30  10  10                          
DENTON, TX            40  29  36  23 / 100  20  10  10                          
MCKINNEY, TX          40  29  35  23 / 100  20  10  10                          
DALLAS, TX            41  31  38  24 / 100  20  10  10                          
TERRELL, TX           43  31  39  23 / 100  20  10  10                          
CORSICANA, TX         46  33  40  24 / 100  20  10  10                          
TEMPLE, TX            53  37  50  29 / 100  10  10  10                          
&&                                                                              
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
NONE.                                                                           
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
99/99                                                                           
</pre> tx                                                                       

 AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTION                                          
 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX                                         
 1145 AM CST THU FEB 1 2007                                                     
 .AVIATION...                                                                   
 LOW CLOUDS AND REDUCED VISIBILITIES WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE TAF               
 SITES FOR THE REST OF TODAY. CEILINGS MAY BRIEFLY RISE TO MVFR                 
 BUT HAVE GENERALLY KEPT PREVAILING IFR CEILINGS THROUGH 23Z.                   
 AFTERWARDS...WE SHOULD SEE A SLIGHT IMPROVEMENT TO LOW END MVFR                
 INTO THE EVENING...BEFORE CEILINGS FALL BACK INTO THE IFR CATEGORY             
 AFTER MIDNIGHT. PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN JUST RAIN                  
 THROUGH THIS EVENING AT THE METROPLEX SITES. HAVE LEFT OUT ANY                 
 MENTION OF PRECIPITATION FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD...AS POPS WILL BE            
 LOW. HOWEVER...IF PRECIPITATION DOES CONTINUE...WE COULD SEE SOME              
 SLEET MIX IN WITH THE RAIN TOWARD MIDNIGHT...AND A SOME LIGHT                  
 SLEET/SNOW LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. WE WILL KEEP KEEP AN              
 EYE ON THE DEVELOPING SITUATION...AND MAY NEED TO ADD SOME WINTRY              
 PRECIPITATION FOR THE METROPLEX TAFS WITH AN UPDATE LATER THIS                 
 AFTERNOON. FARTHER SOUTH...IT WILL BE JUST RAIN AT WACO...WITH AN              
 ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON. NORTHERLY FLOW WILL             
 PREVAIL AT THE METROPLEX TAF SITES. SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW AT WACO WILL            
 COME AROUND TO THE EAST AND NORTHEAST LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING.            
 #58                                                                            
 &&                                                                             
 .DISCUSSION...                                                                 
 936 AM CST THU FEB 1 2007                                                      
 HAVE UPDATED ZONES TO INCLUDE THUNDER IN THE WESTERN HALF OF THE               
 FORECAST AREA AS BOTH THE NAM AND GFS INDICATED 700-500MB LAPSE                
 RATES INCREASING TO 7.0-7.5 C/KM IN THIS AREA. THERE ARE A COUPLE              
 DECENT STORMS JUST TO THE SW OF THE CWA ALREADY. ALSO...WILL                   
 CONTINUE MENTION OF AREAS OF FOG AREAWIDE AT LEAST THROUGH 18Z                 
 WITH MANY STATIONS STILL REPORTING VISBYS IN THE 1-2 MI RANGE.                 
 ALSO ADJUSTED DEWPOINTS.  /13                                                  
 &&                                                                             
 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 539 AM CST THU FEB 1 2007/                         
 UPDATE...                                                                      
 PRECIP SHIELD IS EXPANDING A BIT MORE THAN EARLIER ANTICIPATED. HAVE           
 INCREASED POPS THIS MORNING AND LINGERED PRECIP LONGER THIS                    
 AFTERNOON AND EVENING DUE TO SECOND IMPULSE TRIGGERING MORE PRECIP             
 OVER WEST TX. UPDATED PRODUCTS AVAILABLE SHORTLY.                              
 SCHULTZ                                                                        
 AVIATION...                                                                    
 FOR THE 12Z TAFS...-RA SHOULD BE PREVAILING THROUGH THE MID                    
 AFTERNOON HOURS. VSBYS MAY TEMPORARILY DROP INTO IFR/LIFR CAT THIS             
 MORNING...WITH LIFR/VLIFR CIGS. VSBYS AND CIGS SHOULD RECOVER INTO             
 MVFR CAT BY THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING HOURS AS PRECIP                 
 TAPERS OFF.                                                                    
 05/21                                                                          
 DISCUSSION..../ISSUED 416 AM CST THU FEB 1 2007/                               
 SHORTWAVE ENERGY IS ENTERING WEST TEXAS THIS MORNING...AND MID LEVEL           
 SHEAR AXIS ORIENTATION IS ALIGNED WELL WITH PRECIP SHIELD. RAIN                
 EXTENDS FROM NEAR DFW TO SOUTH OF SJT AT 10Z. SURFACE TEMPS ALONG              
 THE RED RIVER ARE THE MAIN SHORT TERM FOCUS AS PRECIP MOVES INTO THE           
 AREA. RUC ANALYSIS OF 850MB TEMPS KEEPS THE PUSH OF BELOW 0C TEMPS             
 BEHIND THE PROGRESSION OF PRECIPITATION. THIS ANALYSIS SEEMS TO FIT            
 WELL WITH THE PUSH OF THE COLD AIR AT THE SURFACE /PER SFC OBS/                
 WHICH IS BEST OVER FAR WESTERN OK AND THE TX PANHANDLE. FOR                    
 NOW...WILL KEEP PRECIP LIQUID IN THE ZONES TODAY...BUT WILL                    
 REEVALUATE POST 12Z SOUNDINGS AND INCOMING OBS...AND UPDATE IF                 
 NEEDED.                                                                        
 BOTH THE GFS AND NAM MAINTAIN A SATURATED THERMAL PROFILE BELOW                
 FREEZING AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT ALONG THE RED RIVER. WE WILL                   
 INCREASE POPS INTO THE CHC CATEGORY FOR OUR NORTHERN TIER OF ZONES             
 AND EXPAND SLT CHC SOUTHWARD TO JUST NORTH OF THE METROPLEX. LITTLE            
 SNOW ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED...BUT WILL LET DAYSHIFT REEVALUATE AND           
 DETERMINE THE NEED FOR HEADLINES. WE EXPECT THE COLUMN TO QUICKLY              
 DRY FROM THE TOP DOWN...RESULTING IN JUST A SLT CHC FOR FLURRIES               
 AFTER SUNRISE ON FRIDAY OVER OUR NORTHERN ZONES. ATTM...PROFILES               
 APPEAR TOO DRY ON SAT FOR ANY PRECIP AND HAVE REMOVED ISOLATED                 
 FLURRIES FROM THE GRIDS.                                                       
 PATTERN WISE...AMPLIFIED RIDGE MOVING ONTO THE PACIFIC COAST AND               
 STRONG HUDSON BAY LOW WILL SET THE STAGE FOR SEVERAL SHOTS OF COLD             
 AIR TO DROP DOWN INTO THE CENTRAL CONUS. SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL                
 SETTLE INTO NORTH TX ON FRIDAY. THE AREA CAN EXPECT BELOW NORMAL               
 TEMPS...RANGING FROM THE MID 30S TO THE LOWER 50S. AS THE UPPER                
 RIDGE AND TROUGH BOTH TRANSLATE A BIT FARTHER EAST...COLD HIGH                 
 PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL SHOOT NORTHEAST OF OUR AREA...RESULTING IN               
 MINIMAL INFLUENCE OVER OUR NORTHEASTERN ZONES. SOME RETURN FLOW AND            
 BUILDING HEIGHTS SHOULD SET UP A SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST GRADIENT ON            
 TEMPS SUN THROUGH TUES. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE                    
 EXTENDED. JUST BEYOND THE SCOPE OF THIS FORECAST...ECMWF AND UKMET             
 SUGGEST A STRONG SURFACE HIGH WILL PLUNGE INTO THE CENTRAL CONUS               
 LATE NEXT WEEK AND PUSH ANOTHER COLD FRONT INTO NORTH TX.                      
 SCHULTZ                                                                        
 &&                                                                             
 .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                               
 DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  42  30  38  23 / 100  20  10  10                         
 WACO, TX              50  36  45  27 / 100  10  10  10                         
 PARIS, TX             40  27  35  22 / 100  30  10  10                         
 DENTON, TX            40  29  36  23 / 100  20  10  10                         
 MCKINNEY, TX          40  29  35  23 / 100  20  10  10                         
 DALLAS, TX            41  31  38  24 / 100  20  10  10                         
 TERRELL, TX           43  31  39  23 / 100  20  10  10                         
 CORSICANA, TX         46  33  40  24 / 100  20  10  10                         
 TEMPLE, TX            53  37  50  29 / 100  10  10  10                         
 &&                                                                             
 .FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                            
 NONE.                                                                          
 &&                                                                             
 $$                                                                             
 99/99                                                                          
</pre> tx                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTION                                           
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX                                          
1145 AM CST THU FEB 1 2007                                                      
.AVIATION...                                                                    
LOW CLOUDS AND REDUCED VISIBILITIES WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE TAF                
SITES FOR THE REST OF TODAY. CEILINGS MAY BRIEFLY RISE TO MVFR                  
BUT HAVE GENERALLY KEPT PREVAILING IFR CEILINGS THROUGH 23Z.                    
AFTERWARDS...WE SHOULD SEE A SLIGHT IMPROVEMENT TO LOW END MVFR                 
INTO THE EVENING...BEFORE CEILINGS FALL BACK INTO THE IFR CATEGORY              
AFTER MIDNIGHT. PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN JUST RAIN                   
THROUGH THIS EVENING AT THE METROPLEX SITES. HAVE LEFT OUT ANY                  
MENTION OF PRECIPITATION FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD...AS POPS WILL BE             
LOW. HOWEVER...IF PRECIPITATION DOES CONTINUE...WE COULD SEE SOME               
SLEET MIX IN WITH THE RAIN TOWARD MIDNIGHT...AND A SOME LIGHT                   
SLEET/SNOW LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. WE WILL KEEP KEEP AN               
EYE ON THE DEVELOPING SITUATION...AND MAY NEED TO ADD SOME WINTRY               
PRECIPITATION FOR THE METROPLEX TAFS WITH AN UPDATE LATER THIS                  
AFTERNOON. FARTHER SOUTH...IT WILL BE JUST RAIN AT WACO...WITH AN               
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON. NORTHERLY FLOW WILL              
PREVAIL AT THE METROPLEX TAF SITES. SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW AT WACO WILL             
COME AROUND TO THE EAST AND NORTHEAST LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING.             
#58                                                                             
&&                                                                              
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
936 AM CST THU FEB 1 2007                                                       
HAVE UPDATED ZONES TO INCLUDE THUNDER IN THE WESTERN HALF OF THE                
FORECAST AREA AS BOTH THE NAM AND GFS INDICATED 700-500MB LAPSE                 
RATES INCREASING TO 7.0-7.5 C/KM IN THIS AREA. THERE ARE A COUPLE               
DECENT STORMS JUST TO THE SW OF THE CWA ALREADY. ALSO...WILL                    
CONTINUE MENTION OF AREAS OF FOG AREAWIDE AT LEAST THROUGH 18Z                  
WITH MANY STATIONS STILL REPORTING VISBYS IN THE 1-2 MI RANGE.                  
ALSO ADJUSTED DEWPOINTS.  /13                                                   
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 539 AM CST THU FEB 1 2007/                          
UPDATE...                                                                       
PRECIP SHIELD IS EXPANDING A BIT MORE THAN EARLIER ANTICIPATED. HAVE            
INCREASED POPS THIS MORNING AND LINGERED PRECIP LONGER THIS                     
AFTERNOON AND EVENING DUE TO SECOND IMPULSE TRIGGERING MORE PRECIP              
OVER WEST TX. UPDATED PRODUCTS AVAILABLE SHORTLY.                               
SCHULTZ                                                                         
AVIATION...                                                                     
FOR THE 12Z TAFS...-RA SHOULD BE PREVAILING THROUGH THE MID                     
AFTERNOON HOURS. VSBYS MAY TEMPORARILY DROP INTO IFR/LIFR CAT THIS              
MORNING...WITH LIFR/VLIFR CIGS. VSBYS AND CIGS SHOULD RECOVER INTO              
MVFR CAT BY THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING HOURS AS PRECIP                  
TAPERS OFF.                                                                     
05/21                                                                           
DISCUSSION..../ISSUED 416 AM CST THU FEB 1 2007/                                
SHORTWAVE ENERGY IS ENTERING WEST TEXAS THIS MORNING...AND MID LEVEL            
SHEAR AXIS ORIENTATION IS ALIGNED WELL WITH PRECIP SHIELD. RAIN                 
EXTENDS FROM NEAR DFW TO SOUTH OF SJT AT 10Z. SURFACE TEMPS ALONG               
THE RED RIVER ARE THE MAIN SHORT TERM FOCUS AS PRECIP MOVES INTO THE            
AREA. RUC ANALYSIS OF 850MB TEMPS KEEPS THE PUSH OF BELOW 0C TEMPS              
BEHIND THE PROGRESSION OF PRECIPITATION. THIS ANALYSIS SEEMS TO FIT             
WELL WITH THE PUSH OF THE COLD AIR AT THE SURFACE /PER SFC OBS/                 
WHICH IS BEST OVER FAR WESTERN OK AND THE TX PANHANDLE. FOR                     
NOW...WILL KEEP PRECIP LIQUID IN THE ZONES TODAY...BUT WILL                     
REEVALUATE POST 12Z SOUNDINGS AND INCOMING OBS...AND UPDATE IF                  
NEEDED.                                                                         
BOTH THE GFS AND NAM MAINTAIN A SATURATED THERMAL PROFILE BELOW                 
FREEZING AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT ALONG THE RED RIVER. WE WILL                    
INCREASE POPS INTO THE CHC CATEGORY FOR OUR NORTHERN TIER OF ZONES              
AND EXPAND SLT CHC SOUTHWARD TO JUST NORTH OF THE METROPLEX. LITTLE             
SNOW ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED...BUT WILL LET DAYSHIFT REEVALUATE AND            
DETERMINE THE NEED FOR HEADLINES. WE EXPECT THE COLUMN TO QUICKLY               
DRY FROM THE TOP DOWN...RESULTING IN JUST A SLT CHC FOR FLURRIES                
AFTER SUNRISE ON FRIDAY OVER OUR NORTHERN ZONES. ATTM...PROFILES                
APPEAR TOO DRY ON SAT FOR ANY PRECIP AND HAVE REMOVED ISOLATED                  
FLURRIES FROM THE GRIDS.                                                        
PATTERN WISE...AMPLIFIED RIDGE MOVING ONTO THE PACIFIC COAST AND                
STRONG HUDSON BAY LOW WILL SET THE STAGE FOR SEVERAL SHOTS OF COLD              
AIR TO DROP DOWN INTO THE CENTRAL CONUS. SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL                 
SETTLE INTO NORTH TX ON FRIDAY. THE AREA CAN EXPECT BELOW NORMAL                
TEMPS...RANGING FROM THE MID 30S TO THE LOWER 50S. AS THE UPPER                 
RIDGE AND TROUGH BOTH TRANSLATE A BIT FARTHER EAST...COLD HIGH                  
PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL SHOOT NORTHEAST OF OUR AREA...RESULTING IN                
MINIMAL INFLUENCE OVER OUR NORTHEASTERN ZONES. SOME RETURN FLOW AND             
BUILDING HEIGHTS SHOULD SET UP A SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST GRADIENT ON             
TEMPS SUN THROUGH TUES. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE                     
EXTENDED. JUST BEYOND THE SCOPE OF THIS FORECAST...ECMWF AND UKMET              
SUGGEST A STRONG SURFACE HIGH WILL PLUNGE INTO THE CENTRAL CONUS                
LATE NEXT WEEK AND PUSH ANOTHER COLD FRONT INTO NORTH TX.                       
SCHULTZ                                                                         
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  42  30  38  23 / 100  20  10  10                          
WACO, TX              50  36  45  27 / 100  10  10  10                          
PARIS, TX             40  27  35  22 / 100  30  10  10                          
DENTON, TX            40  29  36  23 / 100  20  10  10                          
MCKINNEY, TX          40  29  35  23 / 100  20  10  10                          
DALLAS, TX            41  31  38  24 / 100  20  10  10                          
TERRELL, TX           43  31  39  23 / 100  20  10  10                          
CORSICANA, TX         46  33  40  24 / 100  20  10  10                          
TEMPLE, TX            53  37  50  29 / 100  10  10  10                          
&&                                                                              
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
NONE.                                                                           
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
99/99                                                                           
</pre> tx                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX                                          
936 AM CST THU FEB 1 2007                                                       
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
HAVE UPDATED ZONES TO INCLUDE THUNDER IN THE WESTERN HALF OF THE                
FORECAST AREA AS BOTH THE NAM AND GFS INDICATED 700-500MB LAPSE                 
RATES INCREASING TO 7.0-7.5 C/KM IN THIS AREA. THERE ARE A COUPLE               
DECENT STORMS JUST TO THE SW OF THE CWA ALREADY. ALSO...WILL                    
CONTINUE MENTION OF AREAS OF FOG AREAWIDE AT LEAST THROUGH 18Z                  
WITH MANY STATIONS STILL REPORTING VISBYS IN THE 1-2 MI RANGE.                  
ALSO ADJUSTED DEWPOINTS.  /13                                                   
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 539 AM CST THU FEB 1 2007/                          
UPDATE...                                                                       
PRECIP SHIELD IS EXPANDING A BIT MORE THAN EARLIER ANTICIPATED. HAVE            
INCREASED POPS THIS MORNING AND LINGERED PRECIP LONGER THIS                     
AFTERNOON AND EVENING DUE TO SECOND IMPULSE TRIGGERING MORE PRECIP              
OVER WEST TX. UPDATED PRODUCTS AVAILABLE SHORTLY.                               
SCHULTZ                                                                         
AVIATION...                                                                     
FOR THE 12Z TAFS...-RA SHOULD BE PREVAILING THROUGH THE MID                     
AFTERNOON HOURS. VSBYS MAY TEMPORARILY DROP INTO IFR/LIFR CAT THIS              
MORNING...WITH LIFR/VLIFR CIGS. VSBYS AND CIGS SHOULD RECOVER INTO              
MVFR CAT BY THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING HOURS AS PRECIP                  
TAPERS OFF.                                                                     
05/21                                                                           
DISCUSSION..../ISSUED 416 AM CST THU FEB 1 2007/                                
SHORTWAVE ENERGY IS ENTERING WEST TEXAS THIS MORNING...AND MID LEVEL            
SHEAR AXIS ORIENTATION IS ALIGNED WELL WITH PRECIP SHIELD. RAIN                 
EXTENDS FROM NEAR DFW TO SOUTH OF SJT AT 10Z. SURFACE TEMPS ALONG               
THE RED RIVER ARE THE MAIN SHORT TERM FOCUS AS PRECIP MOVES INTO THE            
AREA. RUC ANALYSIS OF 850MB TEMPS KEEPS THE PUSH OF BELOW 0C TEMPS              
BEHIND THE PROGRESSION OF PRECIPITATION. THIS ANALYSIS SEEMS TO FIT             
WELL WITH THE PUSH OF THE COLD AIR AT THE SURFACE /PER SFC OBS/                 
WHICH IS BEST OVER FAR WESTERN OK AND THE TX PANHANDLE. FOR                     
NOW...WILL KEEP PRECIP LIQUID IN THE ZONES TODAY...BUT WILL                     
REEVALUATE POST 12Z SOUNDINGS AND INCOMING OBS...AND UPDATE IF                  
NEEDED.                                                                         
BOTH THE GFS AND NAM MAINTAIN A SATURATED THERMAL PROFILE BELOW                 
FREEZING AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT ALONG THE RED RIVER. WE WILL                    
INCREASE POPS INTO THE CHC CATEGORY FOR OUR NORTHERN TIER OF ZONES              
AND EXPAND SLT CHC SOUTHWARD TO JUST NORTH OF THE METROPLEX. LITTLE             
SNOW ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED...BUT WILL LET DAYSHIFT REEVALUATE AND            
DETERMINE THE NEED FOR HEADLINES. WE EXPECT THE COLUMN TO QUICKLY               
DRY FROM THE TOP DOWN...RESULTING IN JUST A SLT CHC FOR FLURRIES                
AFTER SUNRISE ON FRIDAY OVER OUR NORTHERN ZONES. ATTM...PROFILES                
APPEAR TOO DRY ON SAT FOR ANY PRECIP AND HAVE REMOVED ISOLATED                  
FLURRIES FROM THE GRIDS.                                                        
PATTERN WISE...AMPLIFIED RIDGE MOVING ONTO THE PACIFIC COAST AND                
STRONG HUDSON BAY LOW WILL SET THE STAGE FOR SEVERAL SHOTS OF COLD              
AIR TO DROP DOWN INTO THE CENTRAL CONUS. SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL                 
SETTLE INTO NORTH TX ON FRIDAY. THE AREA CAN EXPECT BELOW NORMAL                
TEMPS...RANGING FROM THE MID 30S TO THE LOWER 50S. AS THE UPPER                 
RIDGE AND TROUGH BOTH TRANSLATE A BIT FARTHER EAST...COLD HIGH                  
PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL SHOOT NORTHEAST OF OUR AREA...RESULTING IN                
MINIMAL INFLUENCE OVER OUR NORTHEASTERN ZONES. SOME RETURN FLOW AND             
BUILDING HEIGHTS SHOULD SET UP A SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST GRADIENT ON             
TEMPS SUN THROUGH TUES. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE                     
EXTENDED. JUST BEYOND THE SCOPE OF THIS FORECAST...ECMWF AND UKMET              
SUGGEST A STRONG SURFACE HIGH WILL PLUNGE INTO THE CENTRAL CONUS                
LATE NEXT WEEK AND PUSH ANOTHER COLD FRONT INTO NORTH TX.                       
SCHULTZ                                                                         
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  42  30  38  23 / 100  20  10  10                          
WACO, TX              50  36  45  27 / 100  10  10  10                          
PARIS, TX             40  27  35  22 / 100  30  10  10                          
DENTON, TX            40  29  36  23 / 100  20  10  10                          
MCKINNEY, TX          40  29  35  23 / 100  20  10  10                          
DALLAS, TX            41  31  38  24 / 100  20  10  10                          
TERRELL, TX           43  31  39  23 / 100  20  10  10                          
CORSICANA, TX         46  33  40  24 / 100  20  10  10                          
TEMPLE, TX            53  37  50  29 / 100  10  10  10                          
&&                                                                              
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
NONE.                                                                           
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
99/99                                                                           
</pre> tx                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE                                               
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX                                          
539 AM CST THU FEB 1 2007                                                       
.UPDATE...                                                                      
PRECIP SHIELD IS EXPANDING A BIT MORE THAN EARLIER ANTICIPATED. HAVE            
INCREASED POPS THIS MORNING AND LINGERED PRECIP LONGER THIS                     
AFTERNOON AND EVENING DUE TO SECOND IMPULSE TRIGGERING MORE PRECIP              
OVER WEST TX. UPDATED PRODUCTS AVAILABLE SHORTLY.                               
SCHULTZ                                                                         
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
FOR THE 12Z TAFS...-RA SHOULD BE PREVAILING THROUGH THE MID                     
AFTERNOON HOURS. VSBYS MAY TEMPORARILY DROP INTO IFR/LIFR CAT THIS              
MORNING...WITH LIFR/VLIFR CIGS. VSBYS AND CIGS SHOULD RECOVER INTO              
MVFR CAT BY THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING HOURS AS PRECIP                  
TAPERS OFF.                                                                     
05/21                                                                           
&&                                                                              
.DISCUSSION..../ISSUED 416 AM CST THU FEB 1 2007/                               
SHORTWAVE ENERGY IS ENTERING WEST TEXAS THIS MORNING...AND MID LEVEL            
SHEAR AXIS ORIENTATION IS ALIGNED WELL WITH PRECIP SHIELD. RAIN                 
EXTENDS FROM NEAR DFW TO SOUTH OF SJT AT 10Z. SURFACE TEMPS ALONG               
THE RED RIVER ARE THE MAIN SHORT TERM FOCUS AS PRECIP MOVES INTO THE            
AREA. RUC ANALYSIS OF 850MB TEMPS KEEPS THE PUSH OF BELOW 0C TEMPS              
BEHIND THE PROGRESSION OF PRECIPITATION. THIS ANALYSIS SEEMS TO FIT             
WELL WITH THE PUSH OF THE COLD AIR AT THE SURFACE /PER SFC OBS/                 
WHICH IS BEST OVER FAR WESTERN OK AND THE TX PANHANDLE. FOR                     
NOW...WILL KEEP PRECIP LIQUID IN THE ZONES TODAY...BUT WILL                     
REEVALUATE POST 12Z SOUNDINGS AND INCOMING OBS...AND UPDATE IF                  
NEEDED.                                                                         
BOTH THE GFS AND NAM MAINTAIN A SATURATED THERMAL PROFILE BELOW                 
FREEZING AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT ALONG THE RED RIVER. WE WILL                    
INCREASE POPS INTO THE CHC CATEGORY FOR OUR NORTHERN TIER OF ZONES              
AND EXPAND SLT CHC SOUTHWARD TO JUST NORTH OF THE METROPLEX. LITTLE             
SNOW ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED...BUT WILL LET DAYSHIFT REEVALUATE AND            
DETERMINE THE NEED FOR HEADLINES. WE EXPECT THE COLUMN TO QUICKLY               
DRY FROM THE TOP DOWN...RESULTING IN JUST A SLT CHC FOR FLURRIES                
AFTER SUNRISE ON FRIDAY OVER OUR NORTHERN ZONES. ATTM...PROFILES                
APPEAR TOO DRY ON SAT FOR ANY PRECIP AND HAVE REMOVED ISOLATED                  
FLURRIES FROM THE GRIDS.                                                        
PATTERN WISE...AMPLIFIED RIDGE MOVING ONTO THE PACIFIC COAST AND                
STRONG HUDSON BAY LOW WILL SET THE STAGE FOR SEVERAL SHOTS OF COLD              
AIR TO DROP DOWN INTO THE CENTRAL CONUS. SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL                 
SETTLE INTO NORTH TX ON FRIDAY. THE AREA CAN EXPECT BELOW NORMAL                
TEMPS...RANGING FROM THE MID 30S TO THE LOWER 50S. AS THE UPPER                 
RIDGE AND TROUGH BOTH TRANSLATE A BIT FARTHER EAST...COLD HIGH                  
PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL SHOOT NORTHEAST OF OUR AREA...RESULTING IN                
MINIMAL INFLUENCE OVER OUR NORTHEASTERN ZONES. SOME RETURN FLOW AND             
BUILDING HEIGHTS SHOULD SET UP A SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST GRADIENT ON             
TEMPS SUN THROUGH TUES. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE                     
EXTENDED. JUST BEYOND THE SCOPE OF THIS FORECAST...ECMWF AND UKMET              
SUGGEST A STRONG SURFACE HIGH WILL PLUNGE INTO THE CENTRAL CONUS                
LATE NEXT WEEK AND PUSH ANOTHER COLD FRONT INTO NORTH TX.                       
SCHULTZ                                                                         
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  42  30  38  23  41 /  80  10  10  10  10                  
WACO, TX              51  36  45  27  47 /  90  10  10  10  10                  
PARIS, TX             40  27  35  22  39 / 100  30  10  10  10                  
DENTON, TX            40  29  36  23  40 /  80  20  10  10  10                  
MCKINNEY, TX          40  29  35  23  39 / 100  20  10  10  10                  
DALLAS, TX            41  31  38  24  42 /  90  10  10  10  10                  
TERRELL, TX           43  31  39  23  43 / 100  10  10  10  10                  
CORSICANA, TX         48  33  40  24  44 /  90  10  10  10  10                  
TEMPLE, TX            53  37  50  29  48 /  90  10  10  10  10                  
&&                                                                              
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
NONE.                                                                           
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
21/05/92                                                                        
</pre> tx                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX                                          
416 AM CST THU FEB 1 2007                                                       
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
SHORTWAVE ENERGY IS ENTERING WEST TEXAS THIS MORNING...AND MID LEVEL            
SHEAR AXIS ORIENTATION IS ALIGNED WELL WITH PRECIP SHIELD. RAIN                 
EXTENDS FROM NEAR DFW TO SOUTH OF SJT AT 10Z. SURFACE TEMPS ALONG               
THE RED RIVER ARE THE MAIN SHORT TERM FOCUS AS PRECIP MOVES INTO THE            
AREA. RUC ANALYSIS OF 850MB TEMPS KEEPS THE PUSH OF BELOW 0C TEMPS              
BEHIND THE PROGRESSION OF PRECIPITATION. THIS ANALYSIS SEEMS TO FIT             
WELL WITH THE PUSH OF THE COLD AIR AT THE SURFACE /PER SFC OBS/                 
WHICH IS BEST OVER FAR WESTERN OK AND THE TX PANHANDLE. FOR                     
NOW...WILL KEEP PRECIP LIQUID IN THE ZONES TODAY...BUT WILL                     
REEVALUATE POST 12Z SOUNDINGS AND INCOMING OBS...AND UPDATE IF                  
NEEDED.                                                                         
BOTH THE GFS AND NAM MAINTAIN A SATURATED THERMAL PROFILE BELOW                 
FREEZING AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT ALONG THE RED RIVER. WE WILL                    
INCREASE POPS INTO THE CHC CATEGORY FOR OUR NORTHERN TIER OF ZONES              
AND EXPAND SLT CHC SOUTHWARD TO JUST NORTH OF THE METROPLEX. LITTLE             
SNOW ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED...BUT WILL LET DAYSHIFT REEVALUATE AND            
DETERMINE THE NEED FOR HEADLINES. WE EXPECT THE COLUMN TO QUICKLY               
DRY FROM THE TOP DOWN...RESULTING IN JUST A SLT CHC FOR FLURRIES                
AFTER SUNRISE ON FRIDAY OVER OUR NORTHERN ZONES. ATTM...PROFILES                
APPEAR TOO DRY ON SAT FOR ANY PRECIP AND HAVE REMOVED ISOLATED                  
FLURRIES FROM THE GRIDS.                                                        
PATTERN WISE...AMPLIFIED RIDGE MOVING ONTO THE PACIFIC COAST AND                
STRONG HUDSON BAY LOW WILL SET THE STAGE FOR SEVERAL SHOTS OF COLD              
AIR TO DROP DOWN INTO THE CENTRAL CONUS. SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL                 
SETTLE INTO NORTH TX ON FRIDAY. THE AREA CAN EXPECT BELOW NORMAL                
TEMPS...RANGING FROM THE MID 30S TO THE LOWER 50S. AS THE UPPER                 
RIDGE AND TROUGH BOTH TRANSLATE A BIT FARTHER EAST...COLD HIGH                  
PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL SHOOT NORTHEAST OF OUR AREA...RESULTING IN                
MINIMAL INFLUENCE OVER OUR NORTHEASTERN ZONES. SOME RETURN FLOW AND             
BUILDING HEIGHTS SHOULD SET UP A SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST GRADIENT ON             
TEMPS SUN THROUGH TUES. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE                     
EXTENDED. JUST BEYOND THE SCOPE OF THIS FORECAST...ECMWF AND UKMET              
SUGGEST A STRONG SURFACE HIGH WILL PLUNGE INTO THE CENTRAL CONUS                
LATE NEXT WEEK AND PUSH ANOTHER COLD FRONT INTO NORTH TX.                       
SCHULTZ                                                                         
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  42  30  38  23  41 /  80  10  10  10  10                  
WACO, TX              51  36  45  27  47 /  90  10  10  10  10                  
PARIS, TX             40  27  35  22  39 / 100  30  10  10  10                  
DENTON, TX            40  29  36  23  40 /  80  20  10  10  10                  
MCKINNEY, TX          40  29  35  23  39 / 100  20  10  10  10                  
DALLAS, TX            41  31  38  24  42 /  90  10  10  10  10                  
TERRELL, TX           43  31  39  23  43 / 100  10  10  10  10                  
CORSICANA, TX         48  33  40  24  44 /  90  10  10  10  10                  
TEMPLE, TX            53  37  50  29  48 /  90  10  10  10  10                  
&&                                                                              
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
NONE.                                                                           
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
21/05/92                                                                        
</pre> tx                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE                                               
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX                                          
730 PM CST WED JAN 31 2007                                                      
.UPDATE...                                                                      
LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE BEHIND EXITING SHORT WAVE IS CURRENTLY IN                
PLACE OVER NORTH TEXAS.  OTHER THAN A FEW SPRINKLES DEVELOPING                  
LATE IN THE EVENING IT NOW APPEARS THAT ANY MEASURABLE RAIN WILL                
HOLD OFF OVER NORTH TEXAS UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT.  THEREFORE...WE WILL            
LOWER POPS TO SLIGHT CHANCES THE REST OF THE EVENING...BUT KEEP HIGH            
RAIN CHANCES OVERNIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING.                                    
THE COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO SURGE SOUTHWARD OVER WEST TEXAS BUT THE             
EASTERN PORTION OF THE FRONT IS STILL NORTH OF OKC. WE EXPECT THE               
FRONT TO MOVE THROUGH THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF NORTH TEXAS AFTER                 
MIDNIGHT AND THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION AFTER SUNRISE                  
THURSDAY.  AS OF NOW...LOW LEVEL TEMPERATURE PROFILES SUGGEST THAT              
ALL PRECIPITAION SHOULD FALL AS RAIN SO WE WILL LEAVE THE FORECAST              
AS SUCH.  HOWEVER...WE WILL BE EXAMINING THE 00Z MODELS AS WELL AS              
SURFACE TRENDS CLOSELY THROUGH THE EVENING.                                     
OTHER THAN LOWERING THE EVENING POPS...WE WILL ADJUST CLOUD                     
COVER...TEMPS...DEW POINTS AND WINDS BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS.                   
79.                                                                             
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
520 PM CST                                                                      
SHORT TERM CLEARING AREAS HAS MOVED INTO THE DFW TRACON AREA WITH               
BOTH IR AND VIS SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING THE BACK EDGE NEAR A                  
SPS-DFW-ACT LINE.  LOOKING AT THE FORECAST TRENDS OVERNIGHT RUC AND             
GFS BOTH INDICATING RETURN MOISTURE FROM LOW LEVEL JET WITH THE                 
LAYER FROM SURFACE TO 2K FEET NEARLY SATURATED BY 09Z SO EXPECT IFR             
CONDITIONS FOR AIRPORTS THURSDAY AM.  WILL CONTINUE WITH LIGHT RAIN OR          
DRIZZLE DEVELOPING BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND 300 AM THURSDAY MORNING AND             
CONTINUING THROUGH MOST OF THURSDAY.  WIND SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST                   
OVERNIGHT BECOMING MORE EASTERLY THURSDAY AM AND NORTHERLY THURSDAY             
AFTERNOON WITH WIND SPEED BETWEEN 6-10 KNOTS.                                   
50                                                                              
&&                                                                              
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
MUCH OF NORTH TEXAS IS EXPERIENCING A BRIEF BREAK IN PRECIP                     
COURTEOUSY OF SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE DEPARTING SHORTWAVE. LIGHT                  
RETURNS OF MOSTLY RAIN CONTINUE ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN                 
ZONES. TEMPERATURES OUTSIDE OF THE PRECIP AREAS ARE NOW REACHING                
THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S.                                                       
THE NEXT SHORTWAVE TO AFFECT NORTH TEXAS LATER TONIGHT THROUGH                  
TOMORROW IS NOW LOCATED NEAR BAJA. A WEAK COLD FRONT NOW BISECTING              
THE COUNTRY WILL MOVE INTO NORTH TEXAS TOMORROW. THIS FRONT WILL                
LIKELY SLOW DOWN AND BECOME SOMEWHAT ILL-DEFINED AS UPPER LEVEL                 
ENERGY BECOMES STRUNG OUT IN STRONG FLOW ALOFT. PRECIP CHANCES                  
THROUGH TOMORROW WILL BE THE BEST IN THE SOUTH AND EAST...WHERE                 
FRONTOGENESIS WILL BE MAXIMIZED. EXPECT THIS ROUND OF PRECIP TO BE              
ALL LIQUID AS CLOUDS AND RAIN WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES ABOVE                      
FREEZING...ALTHOUGH 18Z RUNS HAVE TRENDED SLIGHTLY COLDER THAN                  
THE 12Z RUNS. IF THE COLD AIR ARRIVES EARLIER AND DEEPER THAN THE               
CURRENT THINKING...A WINTRY MIX MAY NEED TO BE INCLUDED IN THE                  
NORTHERN ZONES. THE FRONT WILL REMAIN IN THE SOUTHERN CWA                       
TOMORROW...EFFECTIVELY KEEPING THE COLDER AIR BOTTLED UP IN THE                 
NORTHERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE CWA. THIS WILL CREATE QUITE A                        
DIFFERENCE BETWEEN DIURNAL TEMPERATURES IN THE NORTH AND THE                    
SOUTH.                                                                          
UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL BECOME MORE MERIDIONAL OVER THE NEXT FEW               
DAYS AS TALL RIDGING COMES ASHORE ON THE WEST COAST...PUSHING THE               
BROAD TROUGH FARTHER EAST. SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL ROUND THE BASE OF              
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND SKIRT THE NORTHERN SECTIONS FRIDAY AND               
SATURDAY. IN ADDITION...A STRONG ARCTIC FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH                 
NORTH TEXAS ON FRIDAY. MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED...AND HAVE ONLY                 
INCLUDED A SLIGHT CHANCE IN THE NORTHERN ZONES. TEMPERATURE                     
PROFILES WILL BE COLD ENOUGH IN THE CHILLY AIR BEHIND THE FRONT                 
FOR PRECIP TO FALL AS A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW.                                   
TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO REBOUND SOMEWHAT BY SUNDAY. HOWEVER...               
THIS WILL BE TEMPERED BY A REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR ON MONDAY.              
THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN LOOKS TO BE NEXT TUESDAY AS ISENTROPIC                  
LIFT BECOMES ESTABLISHED ON THE 285K AND 290K PLANES.  /13                      
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  37  46  31  41  26 /  70  50  10  10  10                  
WACO, TX              42  54  36  51  34 /  80  50  10  10  10                  
PARIS, TX             33  40  32  39  22 /  70  80  20  20  10                  
DENTON, TX            34  45  30  37  23 /  60  50  10  10  10                  
MCKINNEY, TX          37  44  31  38  24 /  70  70  10  10  10                  
DALLAS, TX            38  48  36  43  30 /  70  60  10  10  10                  
TERRELL, TX           37  47  33  42  30 /  80  80  10  10  10                  
CORSICANA, TX         38  51  35  46  31 /  80  80  10  10  10                  
TEMPLE, TX            41  56  38  56  34 /  80  50  10  10  10                  
&&                                                                              
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
NONE.                                                                           
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
42/13                                                                           
</pre> tx                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX                                          
322 PM CST WED JAN 31 2007                                                      
...AVIATION                                                                     
SHORT TERM CLEARING AREAS HAS MOVED INTO THE DFW TRACON AREA WITH               
BOTH IR AND VIS SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING THE BACK EDGE NEAR A                  
SPS-DFW-ACT LINE.  LOOKING AT THE FORECAST TRENDS OVERNIGHT RUC AND             
GFS BOTH INDICATING RETURN MOISTURE FROM LOW LEVEL JET WITH THE                 
LAYER FROM SURFACE TO 2K FEET NEARLY SATURATED BY 09Z SO EXPECT IFR             
CONDITIONS FOR AIRPORTS THURSDAY AM.  WILL CONTINUE WITH LIGHT RAIN             
OR DRIZZLE DEVELOPING BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND 300 AM THURSDAY MORNING              
AND CONTINUING THROUGH MOST OF THURSDAY.  WIND SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST               
OVERNIGHT BECOMING MORE EASTERLY THURSDAY AM AND NORTHERLY THURSDAY             
AFTERNOON WITH WIND SPEED BETWEEN 6-10 KNOTS.                                   
50                                                                              
&&                                                                              
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
MUCH OF NORTH TEXAS IS EXPERIENCING A BRIEF BREAK IN PRECIP                     
COURTEOUSY OF SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE DEPARTING SHORTWAVE. LIGHT                  
RETURNS OF MOSTLY RAIN CONTINUE ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN                 
ZONES. TEMPERATURES OUTSIDE OF THE PRECIP AREAS ARE NOW REACHING                
THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S.                                                       
THE NEXT SHORTWAVE TO AFFECT NORTH TEXAS LATER TONIGHT THROUGH                  
TOMORROW IS NOW LOCATED NEAR BAJA. A WEAK COLD FRONT NOW BISECTING              
THE COUNTRY WILL MOVE INTO NORTH TEXAS TOMORROW. THIS FRONT WILL                
LIKELY SLOW DOWN AND BECOME SOMEWHAT ILL-DEFINED AS UPPER LEVEL                 
ENERGY BECOMES STRUNG OUT IN STRONG FLOW ALOFT. PRECIP CHANCES                  
THROUGH TOMORROW WILL BE THE BEST IN THE SOUTH AND EAST...WHERE                 
FRONTOGENESIS WILL BE MAXIMIZED. EXPECT THIS ROUND OF PRECIP TO BE              
ALL LIQUID AS CLOUDS AND RAIN WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES ABOVE                      
FREEZING...ALTHOUGH 18Z RUNS HAVE TRENDED SLIGHTLY COLDER THAN                  
THE 12Z RUNS. IF THE COLD AIR ARRIVES EARLIER AND DEEPER THAN THE               
CURRENT THINKING...A WINTRY MIX MAY NEED TO BE INCLUDED IN THE                  
NORTHERN ZONES. THE FRONT WILL REMAIN IN THE SOUTHERN CWA                       
TOMORROW...EFFECTIVELY KEEPING THE COLDER AIR BOTTLED UP IN THE                 
NORTHERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE CWA. THIS WILL CREATE QUITE A                        
DIFFERENCE BETWEEN DIURNAL TEMPERATURES IN THE NORTH AND THE                    
SOUTH.                                                                          
UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL BECOME MORE MERIDIONAL OVER THE NEXT FEW               
DAYS AS TALL RIDGING COMES ASHORE ON THE WEST COAST...PUSHING THE               
BROAD TROUGH FARTHER EAST. SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL ROUND THE BASE OF              
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND SKIRT THE NORTHERN SECTIONS FRIDAY AND               
SATURDAY. IN ADDITION...A STRONG ARCTIC FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH                 
NORTH TEXAS ON FRIDAY. MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED...AND HAVE ONLY                 
INCLUDED A SLIGHT CHANCE IN THE NORTHERN ZONES. TEMPERATURE                     
PROFILES WILL BE COLD ENOUGH IN THE CHILLY AIR BEHIND THE FRONT                 
FOR PRECIP TO FALL AS A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW.                                   
TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO REBOUND SOMEWHAT BY SUNDAY. HOWEVER...               
THIS WILL BE TEMPERED BY A REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR ON MONDAY.              
THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN LOOKS TO BE NEXT TUESDAY AS ISENTROPIC                  
LIFT BECOMES ESTABLISHED ON THE 285K AND 290K PLANES.  /13                      
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  37  46  31  41  26 /  70  50  10  10  10                  
WACO, TX              42  54  36  51  34 /  80  50  10  10  10                  
PARIS, TX             33  40  32  39  22 /  70  80  20  20  10                  
DENTON, TX            34  45  30  37  23 /  60  50  10  10  10                  
MCKINNEY, TX          37  44  31  38  24 /  70  70  10  10  10                  
DALLAS, TX            38  48  36  43  30 /  70  60  10  10  10                  
TERRELL, TX           37  47  33  42  30 /  80  80  10  10  10                  
CORSICANA, TX         38  51  35  46  31 /  80  80  10  10  10                  
TEMPLE, TX            41  56  38  56  34 /  80  50  10  10  10                  
&&                                                                              
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
NONE.                                                                           
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
42/13                                                                           
</pre> tx                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI                                           
1100 AM CST THU FEB 1 2007                                                      
.UPDATE...                                                                      
UPDATED FORECAST FOR REMOVAL OF FLURRIES IN THE ERN CWA...AND DROP              
TEMPERATURES CWA-WIDE A FEW DEGREES GIVEN SUBZERO                               
START...ESPECIALLY WESTERN CWA.                                                 
01.12Z RAOBS AND RUC 925MB TEMPS ANALYSIS SHOWING CORE OF COLDEST               
LOW LEVEL AIRMASS /-16C/ OVER CWA THROUGH THE MORNING                           
HOURS...BEFORE SHIFTING EAST AND MODERATING THIS AFTERNOON. SHOULD              
SEE TEMPERATURES RESPOND A LITTLE MORE THAN THEY HAVE THUS FAR.                 
STILL A FEW SITES IN RWIS/AWOS NETWORK BELOW ZERO AS OF 16Z ACROSS              
NERN IA AND SERN MN...SO EVEN A 10 DEGREE RISE LATE THIS MORNING                
INTO EARLY AFTERNOON WILL YIELD MAX TEMPS 2-4 DEGREES LOWER THAN                
PVS FORECASTED IN WRN CWA.                                                      
HIGH CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO STREAM INTO CWA THOUGH AFTERNOON...AHEAD              
OF DEEP LAYER SHORTWAVE TROUGH ROTATING OUT OF DAKOTAS/MN. ARCTIC               
FRONT ALIGNED FROM LAKE SUPERIOR/ALEXANDRIA MN/ABERDEEN SD AT                   
16Z...WITH PLETHORA OF -SN/FLURRIES ALONG/BEHIND FRONT. THIS TO                 
MOVE THROUGH MOST CWA BY FRIDAY MORNING. CURRENT SHIFT IS                       
CONTEMPLATING ISSUANCE OF ADVISORIES /EITHER WIND CHILL OR WINTER               
WEATHER/...DEPENDING ON WHETHER COMBINATION OF BLOWING SNOW/AREAS               
OF LIGHT SNOW WILL BE ENOUGH TO MENTION...OR WHETHER WIND CHILLS                
WILL EXCEED CRITERIA /-20F/.                                                    
&&                                                                              
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
WI...NONE.                                                                      
MN...NONE.                                                                      
IA...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
BINAU                                                                           
</pre> wi                                                                       

 AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                       
 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI                                          
 1100 AM CST THU FEB 1 2007                                                     
 .UPDATE...                                                                     
 UPDATED FORECAST FOR REMOVAL OF FLURRIES IN THE ERN CWA...AND DROP             
 TEMPERATURES CWA-WIDE A FEW DEGREES GIVEN SUBZERO                              
 START...ESPECIALLY WESTERN CWA.                                                
 01.12Z RAOBS AND RUC 925MB TEMPS ANALYSIS SHOWING CORE OF COLDEST              
 LOW LEVEL AIRMASS /-16C/ OVER CWA THROUGH THE MORNING                          
 HOURS...BEFORE SHIFTING EAST AND MODERATING THIS AFTERNOON. SHOULD             
 SEE TEMPERATURES RESPOND A LITTLE MORE THAN THEY HAVE THUS FAR.                
 STILL A FEW SITES IN RWIS/AWOS NETWORK BELOW ZERO AS OF 16Z ACROSS             
 NERN IA AND SERN MN...SO EVEN A 10 DEGREE RISE LATE THIS MORNING               
 INTO EARLY AFTERNOON WILL YIELD MAX TEMPS 2-4 DEGREES LOWER THAN               
 PVS FORECASTED IN WRN CWA.                                                     
 HIGH CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO STREAM INTO CWA THOUGH AFTERNOON...AHEAD             
 OF DEEP LAYER SHORTWAVE TROUGH ROTATING OUT OF DAKOTAS/MN. ARCTIC              
 FRONT ALIGNED FROM LAKE SUPERIOR/ALEXANDRIA MN/ABERDEEN SD AT                  
 16Z...WITH PLETHORA OF -SN/FLURRIES ALONG/BEHIND FRONT. THIS TO                
 MOVE THROUGH MOST CWA BY FRIDAY MORNING. CURRENT SHIFT IS                      
 CONTEMPLATING ISSUANCE OF ADVISORIES /EITHER WIND CHILL OR WINTER              
 WEATHER/...DEPENDING ON WHETHER COMBINATION OF BLOWING SNOW/AREAS              
 OF LIGHT SNOW WILL BE ENOUGH TO MENTION...OR WHETHER WIND CHILLS               
 WILL EXCEED CRITERIA /-20F/.                                                   
 &&                                                                             
 .ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                            
 WI...NONE.                                                                     
 MN...NONE.                                                                     
 IA...NONE.                                                                     
 &&                                                                             
 $$                                                                             
 BINAU                                                                          
</pre> wi