AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD CA                        
930 AM PDT SUN JUL 23 2006                                                      
.SHORT TERM...NO CHANGE IN THE CURRENT WEATHER PATTERN THIS MORNING             
AS THE STRONG UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE WEST. MAY SEE               
RECORD TEMPERATURES AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON AS MORNING LOWS OVER THE               
LOWER ELEVATIONS WERE ONLY ABLE TO REACH THE UPPER 80S. AT 800 AM...            
VALLEY LOCATIONS HAD READINGS IN THE 90S...KFAT AT 98...AND EXPECTED            
TO CONTINUE RISING THROUGH OUT THE DAY. LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY              
ALONG WITH RUC80 ANALYSIS SHOWS EVEN MORE MOISTURE PUSHING INTO THE             
REGION UNDER AS SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW ALOFT. THEREFORE...WITH CAPE                 
VALUES RISING BACK UP TO AROUND 1500J/KG...WILL SEE ANOTHER DAY OF              
THUNDERSTORMS. AGAIN...AS MORE MOISTURE CONTINUES TO PUSH IN...THE              
POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING WILL REMAIN OVER THE MOUNTAINS. WILL               
THEREFORE...ALLOW THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH TO REMAIN IN EFFECT UNTIL 9             
PM TONIGHT. THE HEAT AND HUMIDITY COMBINED WILL A FACTOR TODAY AS               
HEAT INDEXES REACH BACK INTO THE +110 DEG-F RANGE. WILL ALSO ALLOW              
THE HEAT ADVISORY TO REMAIN IN EFFECT TODAY AS RECORD TEMPERATURES              
MAY BE OBSERVED.                                                                
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR OVER THE             
SOUTHERN SIERRA NEVADA AS WELL AS THE KERN COUNTY MOUNTAINS AND                 
DESERT FROM 19Z SUNDAY TO 07Z MONDAY. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS                
WILL PREVAIL THROUGH 12Z MONDAY. DUE TO UNUSUALLY HIGH                          
TEMPERATURES...HIGH DENSITY ALTITUDES CONTINUE TO PREVAIL ACROSS THE            
AREA...ESPECIALLY AT THE HIGHER ELEVATION AIRPORTS. FOR SPECIFIC                
DETAILS...PLEASE REFER TO TAFS FOR KMCE...KFAT...AND KBFL.                      
&&                                                                              
.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM TODAY               
     FOR THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY AND ADJACENT               
     SIERRA NEVADA FOOTHILLS.                                                   
  ...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM NOON UNTIL 9 PM PDT TODAY FOR HIGHER                
     ELEVATIONS OF THE SOUTHERN SIERRA NEVADA AND THE TEHACHAPI                 
     MOUNTAINS.                                                                 
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
MOLINA                                                                          
</PRE></TT></td>   ca                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS                                            
945 PM MDT SUN JUL 23 2006                                                      
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATING SHORT WAVE TROUGH SLIDING ACROSS THE             
NEBRASKA AND WYOMING BORDER. LARGE AREA OF CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED             
AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE...AND IS SLOWLY MOVING SOUTHEAST. NONE OF THE             
SHORT RANGE MODELS REALLY PICKING UP ON SITUATION WELL. NAM/RUC                 
INHIBITION FIELDS INDICATE STORMS SHOULD MAKE IT INTO CWA...BUT                 
SOUTHERN EXTENT REMAINS QUESTIONABLE. HAVE UPDATED POPS TO ACCOUNT              
FOR THIS...BUT DUE TO  UNCERTAINTY WITH SOUTHERN EXTENT WILL KEEP               
POPS LOW.                                                                       
&&                                                                              
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
KS...NONE.                                                                      
NE...NONE.                                                                      
CO...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
JRM                                                                             
</PRE></TT></td>   ks                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY                                          
245 PM EDT SUN JUL 23 2006                                                      
.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON)...                               
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS SE CANADA INTO THE SPINE OF THE SOUTHERN              
APPALACHIANS THIS AFTERNOON CONTINUES TO TRACK EAST TOWARDS NEW                 
ENGLAND...AS SFC HIGH REMAINS TO THE WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA                  
CENTERED NEAR THE MO/KS LINE. CURRENT RUC SHOWING H500 TEMPS WARMING            
SO FAR TODAY ABOUT 5C...AND H850 TEMPS ABOUT 3C...THIS WARMING ALOFT            
HAS LESSENED LAPSE RATES ENOUGH TO KEEP ANY SIGNIFICANT CU BUILD UP             
INTO THIS EVENING. SINKING MOTION ACROSS THE SOUTHERN WABASH VALLEY             
EAST INTO THE FORECAST AREA WHERE MID LEVEL WINDS HAVE AN                       
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW OVER THE AREA HAS KEPT MOST OF THE WESTERN HALF OF            
THE CWA NEARLY CLOUD FREE...SCTD CU FIELD ACROSS THE EAST AND SOUTH.            
TEMPS ARE ONLY FORECAST CHALLENGE IN THE SHORT TERM...AND WITH                  
LITTLE VARIANCE IN MOS IT SEEMS NOT MUCH OF ONE AT THAT.                        
TONIGHT CU WILL DISSIPATE COMPLETELY...AND LIGHT WINDS AS THE SFC               
HIGH MOVES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. BELIEVE THAT PATCHY FOG WILL BE            
LIMITED TO LOW LYING AREAS...VALLEYS...AND NEAR WATERWAYS ACROSS                
THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA...WITH SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR                 
ACROSS THE WEST. HAVE LEANED TOWARDS THE UPPER END OF MOS WITH LOWS             
DROPPING INTO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 60S.                                         
WEAK SFC HI JUST TO THE EAST OF THE REGION WILL ALLOW FOR LIGHT                 
WINDS...WITH A SLIGHT SOUTHERLY COMPONENT POSSIBLE. FORECAST                    
SOUNDINGS SHOW DRY AIR THROUGH THE ENTIRE COLUMN...AS DO TIME SERIES            
OF EACH TAF SITE...FEW CU WILL DEVELOP AT BEST ACROSS THE REGION ON             
MONDAY AFTERNOON. WITH H850 TEMPS CLIMBING ANOTHER 1 TO 2C...HAVE               
KEPT TEMPS ON THE LOWER SIDE OF MOS IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 80S                  
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. --SCHOTT                                              
.LONG TERM (MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY                                         
THE DEEP UPPER TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER THE REGION WILL LIFT TO THE                
NORTHEAST BY THE BEGINNING OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD. WE WILL STAY IN             
A WEAK NORTHWEST FLOW EARLY IN THE WEEK AS A COUPLE OF S/W'S MOVE               
THROUGH THE FLOW. HOWEVER THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL REASSERT ITSELF            
LATE IN THE WEEK. AT THE SURFACE WE WILL SEE A COUPLE OF COOL FRONTS            
DROP INTO ILLINOIS AND INDIANA BUT THEY WILL REMAIN NORTH OF OUR                
FORECAST AREA. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT FROM THE LOWER OHIO             
VALLEY MONDAY TO THE EAST COAST WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW A RETURN             
MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW WITH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED THURSDAY             
THROUGH SATURDAY.                                                               
CURRENT FORECAST TEMPERATURES ARE RUNNING 3 TO 5 DEGREES ABOVE                  
NORMAL FOR LATE JULY AND LOOK GOOD. NO CHANGES ARE PLANNED HERE.                
--JA                                                                            
.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
KY...NONE.                                                                      
IN...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</PRE></TT></td>   ky                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA                                          
1006 AM CDT SUN JUL 23 2006                                                     
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
RATHER DIFFUSE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AS OF 14Z APPEARS TO BE LOCATED                 
NEAR A MCB...TYR...CRS LINE AND IS NEARLY STATIONARY. CONVECTION                
EARLY THIS MORNING HAS DIED OFF BUT ELEVATED INSTABILITY EXISTS                 
ALONG AN 850MB THETAE BOUNDARY BEST INDICATED BY THE RUC40 WHICH                
SHOWS THE BOUNDARY ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN PARISHES AND THEN SWINGS                 
NORTHWARD IN THE PINEY WOODS OF NE TX. LATEST LAPSE ANALYSIS SHOWS              
GROWING CAPE AS OF 14Z NEAR 1000 J/KG ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE                    
FRONTAL BOUNDARY. PWATS IN THIS AREA PUSHING 1.75" WITH MUCH DRIER              
AIR TOWARDS S AR...PERHAPS WITH PWATS NEAR 1.25". CURRENT FCST HAS              
CHANCE POPS ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE CURRENT FRONTAL BOUNDARY                     
POSITION AND THIS LOOKS GOOD. WITH ADDITIONAL HEATING...EXPECT                  
SCATTERED CONVECTION TO ONCE AGAIN DEVELOP IN THE VICINITY OF THE               
FRONTAL/850MB THETAE BOUNDARIES. STEERING CURRENTS ARE WEAK AT                  
BEST SO ANY CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS WILL LIKELY RESULT IN LOCALLY              
HEAVY RAINFALL TOTALS. WILL UPDATE TO CLEAN UP SOME WORDING ISSUES              
BUT NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT CHANGES EXPECTED ATTM. UPDATE OUT SHORTLY.             
13                                                                              
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
SHV  92  67  95  72 /   0   0   0   0                                           
MLU  91  67  94  71 /   0   0   0   0                                           
DEQ  92  62  95  66 /   0   0   0   0                                           
TXK  93  65  95  71 /   0   0   0   0                                           
ELD  91  62  95  69 /   0   0   0   0                                           
TYR  92  69  95  73 /  30   0   0   0                                           
GGG  92  67  95  72 /  30   0   0   0                                           
LFK  92  69  92  72 /  30  20  20  20                                           
&&                                                                              
.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
AR...NONE.                                                                      
LA...NONE.                                                                      
OK...NONE.                                                                      
TX...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
13                                                                              
</PRE></TT></td>   la                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME                                             
340 PM EDT SUN JUL 23 2006                                                      
.SYNOPSIS...LOW PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH THE MARITIMES WILL PUSH A               
COLD FRONT OFF THE COAST THIS EVENING. ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE             
WILL LIFT ALONG THE FRONT TOWARD NOVA SCOTIA LATER TONIGHT. A WEAK              
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN WHILE AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE           
MOVES THROUGH THE REGION DURING MONDAY. A SERIES OF FRONTAL SYSTEM              
APPROACHING WILL KEEP CONDITIONS UNSETTLED THROUGH MID WEEK.                    
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...                                  
LATEST RUC ANALYSIS LIFTS A PIECE OF ENERGY WITHIN THE SOUTHWEST                
FLOW ALOFT THROUGH THE REGION EARLY TONIGHT. WILL KEEP SLIGHT                   
CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS OVER THE CWA EARLY TONIGHT...THEN SLOWLY                  
DIMINISH AFTER 06Z EXCEPT FOR THE COAST WHERE ANOTHER LOW LIFTING               
NORTH TOWARD NOVA SCOTIA WILL KEEP CHANCE POPS OVERNIGHT.                       
MESOANALYSIS FIELDS SUGGEST ATMOSHPERE IS FAIRLY STABLE WITH LI'S               
AOA PLUS TWO AND MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES RATES ONLY AROUND FIVE                   
DEG...SO WILL NOT INCLUDE MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS FOR TONIGHT.                 
SURFACE LOW MOVES THROUGH THE MARITIMES ALLOWING WEAK SURFACE                   
RIDGE TO BUILD IN DURING THE DAY. ALOFT...RATHER STRONG SHORT WAVE              
MOVES ACROSS THE REGION ESPECIALLY AROUND THE MAX HEATING TIME OF               
DAY. INCREASED SURFACE INSOLATION INTERACTING WITH COLD POOL ALOFT              
DESTABILIZES ATMOSPHERE. HIGHEST CAPE/LOWEST LI'S OCCUR OVER                    
NORTHERN AREAS...SO HAVE HAVE HIGHEST POPS NORTH AND WEST AND                   
MINIMAL CHANCE DOWNEAST FOR MONDAY.                                             
SHORT WAVE RIDGE KEEP CONDITIONS QUIET FOR A TIME MONDAY NIGHT...               
THEN INCREASED WAA AND AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT WILL REINTRODUCE               
CLOUDS AND -SHRA/-TSRA LATE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. WITH WARM                 
FRONT IN THE VICINITY OR JUST TO THE NORTH WILL KEEP POPS GOING                 
FOR TUESDAY NIGHT.                                                              
LEANED WITH MATCH GUIDANCE ALONG WITH A FEW ADJUSTMENTS FOR                     
TEMPS/DEW POINTS WITHIN THE SHORT TERM.                                         
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...                                        
THE PATTERN WILL REMAIN RATHER UNSETTLED THROUGH THE LONG TERM                  
PORTION OF THE FORECAST. A MORE OR LESS ZONAL FLOW WILL CONTINUE                
THROUGH THE PERIOD. PIECES OF ENERGY ROTATING THROUGH THE FLOW                  
WILL RESULT IN THE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH                
THE PERIOD. THE BEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE              
ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS CLOSER TO A FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT WILL BE                 
NEARLY STATIONARY JUST NORTH OF THE MAINE BORDER INTO FRIDAY. A                 
COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK               
KEEPING THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INTO NEXT WEEKEND.             
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
MVFR CONDITIONS (CIGS/VSBYS) WILL DOMINATE FOR THE TAF SITE                     
TONIGHT. EXPECT VFR CONDITION TO RETURN DURING TUESDAY MORNING.                 
.MARINE...                                                                      
SHORT TERM: WILL CONTINUE THE SCA WITH SEAS AVERAGING IN THE 4 TO               
7 FT RANGE ATTM. AS WEAK SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS IN BEHIND SURFACE                 
LOW LIFTING ACROSS NOVA SCOTIA..EXPECT SEAS TO SUBSIDE DURING                   
MONDAY AFTERNOON AND REMAIN INTO TUESDAY. AS GRADIENT TIGHTENS                  
SEAS SHOULD APPROACH/REACH SCA CRITERIA TUESDAY NIGHT.                          
LONG TERM: NO HEADLINES EXPECTED IN THE LONG TERM. TOOK A FOOT OR               
TWO OFF THE WAVEWATCH WHICH LOOKED A BIT ON THE HIGH SIDE.                      
&&                                                                              
.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
ME...NONE.                                                                      
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ANZ050 UNTIL 3 PM MONDAY.                     
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHORT TERM/MARINE...FITZSIMMONS                                                 
LONG TERM/MARINE...DUDA                                                         
AVIATION...FITZSIMMONS                                                          
</PRE></TT></td>   me                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI                                             
952 PM EDT SUN JUL 23 2006                                                      
.UPDATE...CURRENT WATER VAPOR/IR SAT/SURFACE/RADAR ANALYSIS SHOWS A             
WARM FRONT LAID OUT IN A NORTH/SOUTH ORIENTATION ACROSS NORTHERN                
MINNESOTA...NORTHWARD INTO SOUTHWEST ONTARIO. THIS FRONT INTERSECTS             
A COLD FRONT DROPPING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CANADIAN                    
PROVINCES. A BAND OF MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS...ASSOCIATED WITH THE             
WARM FRONT LIE ACROSS THE UP...AND NOW ENTERING INTO NORTHERN LOWER             
MICHIGAN. A FEW LIGHT RETURNS HAVE BEEN SHOWING UP ON MQT/APX                   
RADARS...BUT HAS BEEN FALLING APART AS IT TRIES TO WORK INTO                    
NORTHERN MICHIGAN WITH ABUNDANT DRY AIR IN THE LOWER LEVELS.                    
REGARDLESS...WILL THROW IN A MENTION OF SPRINKLES INTO NORTHWEST                
LOWER MICHIGAN BEGINNING AT 6Z AS SOME LIGHT PRECIP MAY REACH THE               
GROUND IN SPITE OF THIS DRY AIR. MEANWHILE...STORMS ARE ONGOING IN              
NORTHERN MINNESOTA...ASSOCIATED WITH THE SURFACE WARM FRONT                     
BOUNDARY. THIS ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO WORK SOUTHEASTWARD                     
TONIGHT...AND DO NOT EXPECT THIS AREA OF PRECIPITATION TO ENTER THE             
PICTURE UNTIL TOMORROW MORNING...AND IT MAY NOT EVEN MAKE IT THIS               
FAR.                                                                            
FURTHER NORTH UP STREAM...CONVECTION HAS FIRED ALONG THE COLD FRONT             
IN SOUTHWEST ONTARIO...NEAR THE INTERSECTION OF THE COLD/WARM                   
FRONTS. THIS CONVECTION...WILL HAVE A BIGGER IMPACT ON NORTHERN                 
MICHIGAN. MODELS DEVELOP A LLJ LATER TONIGHT POINTING INTO CENTRAL              
LAKE SUPERIOR...AND THIS CONVECTION WILL FEED OFF THIS FEATURE...AND            
STRENGTHEN AS IT MOVES ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR. PUSHED BACK THE POPS               
UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT AS THINGS APPEAR TO BE A BIT SLOWER ON SETTING             
UP. DO EXPECT THAT THE AREA OF PRECIPITATION THAT DEVELOPS WILL BE              
ON A WEAKENING TREND AS IT GETS INTO UPPER MICHIGAN...AS IT OUT RUNS            
THE FORCING WITH THE COLD FRONT AND THE LLJ BEGINS TO VEER AND                  
WEAKEN. THUS...WILL KEEP POPS ALONG  M-68 AND TO THE NORTH...BUT                
DOWNGRADE TO SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM. THESE             
TRENDS ARE DEPICTED WELL ON THE 21Z RUC THIS EVENING.                           
ALSO INCREASED LOW TEMPERATURES A BIT...AS DEWPOINTS HAVE BEEN                  
RECOVERING BACK INTO THE MID TO UPPER 50S. ALSO CLOUD COVER AND                 
INCREASING WINDS SHOULD HELP KEEP TEMPERATURES A BIT WARMER TONIGHT.            
KAS                                                                             
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION ISSUED AT 335 PM EDT SUN JUL 23 2006                           
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWING MID-UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS NOW OUT                 
ACROSS LAKE HURON WITH WEAK RIDGING OR NEUTRAL FLOW NOSING INTO THE             
WESTERN GREAT LAKES. PER RADAR/SATELLITE OBS... CONVECTIVE TRENDS               
OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS CLEARING SHOWING AFFECTS OF WARMING/CAPPING             
ALOFT AS CONVECTION NOW BEING SUPPRESSED ACROSS NW AND NORTH CENTRAL            
LOWER MICHIGAN...WHILE CONVECTION WEAKENING IN THE EAST.                        
UPSTREAM...WARM FRONT LIFTING INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST ALONG PERIPHERY            
OF UPPER RIDGE...ROUGHLY ACROSS THE ARROWHEAD OF MN AND INTO WESTERN            
LAKE SUPERIOR. ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NOW                   
ONGOING ALONG AND NORTH OF THIS FRONT WORKING ACROSS WESTERN LAKE               
SUPERIOR AND THE WESTERN U.P.                                                   
TONIGHT...KAPX RADAR REVEALING A MYRIAD OF CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW                   
BOUNDARIES ACROSS NRN LOWER MICHIGAN WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO SPARK               
NEW CELLS FOR A FEW MORE HOURS. BUT AS WARMING ALOFT CONTINUES                  
CONVECTION EXPECTED TO COME TO A QUICK END FOR MOST AREAS BY EARLY              
EVENING. GIVEN THE CURRENT COVERAGE...WILL CARRY LIKELY POPS ACROSS             
PORTIONS OF NE LOWER MICHIGAN AND ISOLATED POPS OVER NORTH CENTRAL              
LOWER MI IN THE VERY EARLY GOING. WITH THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS NOW OFF            
TO THE EAST WATERSPOUT THREAT SHOULD BE ABOUT OVER WITH. SO WILL NOT            
INCLUDE IN THE EVENING NEARSHORE FORECASTS.                                     
THEN...UPSTREAM LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AXIS FROM IOWA INTO MN FORECAST              
TO SPREAD EASTWARD INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES...AS 850 MB LLJ                 
INCREASES INTO THE 40-50 KNOT RANGE. THIS SHOULD HELP TO SPREAD                 
UPSTREAM CONVECTION IN ACROSS THE FAR NRN HALF OF THE CWA LATE THIS             
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. THUS NEXT ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS             
NOW UPSTREAM EXPECTED TO MAKE HEADWAY INTO THE FAR NRN PART OF THE              
CWA LATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. THUS...WILL RETAIN LIKELY POPS             
ACROSS EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN AFTER 03Z OR SO...AND A CHANCE OVER               
MOST OF NRN LOWER MICHIGAN NORTH OF M-72.                                       
ADAM                                                                            
EXTENDED DISCUSSION...ACTIVE PATTERN SHAPING THROUGH THE WEEK...AS              
THE AMPLIFIED PATTERN ACROSS NORTH AMERICA DE-AMPLIFIES...LEAVING A             
MORE ZONAL FLOW FOR THE MIDDLE TO END OF THE WEEK.  A SERIES OF                 
SHORTWAVES WILL SKIRT TO THE NORTH OF MICHIGAN...ONE                            
MONDAY...ANOTHER ON WEDNESDAY...AND MAYBE ONE MORE ON FRIDAY.  THESE            
WAVES EACH WILL SEND A COLD FRONT OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND               
EACH FRONT WILL EVENTUALLY STALL OUT CLOSE TO US.  THIS WILL LEAVE A            
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THURSDAY FOR THE CWA.  FOR THE                  
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY TIME PERIOD...NAM APPEARS TO BE THE                    
OUTLIER...AND HAVE LEANED MORE ON THE GFS/UKMET/AND ECMWF.                      
MONDAY...WARM FRONT WILL MOVE FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS MICHIGAN                 
DURING THE MORNING HOURS AND SOME SHOWERS AND STORMS FROM THE                   
OVERNIGHTS MCS MAY TRY TO BUILD BACK SW ALONG THE WESTERN FLANK OF              
THE 30KT LLJ WITHIN THE 850 THETAE AXIS.  THEN THE COLD FRONT                   
SETTLES SOUTH OVER THE CWA BUT THE AMOUNT OF PROGRESS SOUTHWARD IS              
STILL IN QUESTION.  NAM WANTS TO BRING IT OVER CENTRAL                          
MICHIGAN...WHILE THE GFS HANGS IT FARTHER NORTH OVER EASTERN UPPER.             
PREFER THE GFS HERE AS IT IS MORE CLOSELY ALIGNED WITH THE                      
UKMET/ECMWF.  THEREFORE...HAVE INCREASED POPS OVER EASTERN UPPER AND            
TIP OF THE MITT.  THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY IS QUESTIONABLE WITH                
CLOUD COVER PRESENT...BUT A PARCEL OF 82/63 YIELDS A ML CAPE OF 1200            
J/KG WITH NO CIN.  0-6KM SHEAR IS NOT THE GREATEST (25-30KTS)...BUT             
ENOUGH TO SUPPORT MULTICELLULAR ORGANIZATION WITH SMALL HAIL AND                
DAMAGING WINDS.  THERE IS ALSO POTENTIAL FOR A GOOD SOAKING RAIN                
WITH K-INDEX VALUES APPROACHING 35 AND PWATS AROUND 1.5 IN.                     
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...MODELS CONTINUE TO HAVE PROBLEMS WITH            
THE FINAL LOCATION OF THE STALLED OUT FRONT.  NAM IS THE OUTLIER AND            
PLACES THE FRONT ACROSS SOUTHERN LOWER OVER THESE PERIODS (TRENDING             
FURTHER SOUTH THAN PAST RUNS)...WHILE THE GFS/UKMET/ECMWF KEEPS THE             
FRONT OVER NORTHERN LOWER.  WILL BUMP UP POPS OVER NORTHERN LOWER               
WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN THE VICINITY.  SEVERE POTENTIAL ON                 
TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS USUAL WILL LARGELY DEPEND ON CLOUD COVER AS THE            
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT WILL WEAKEN AND 0-6KM BULK SHEAR WILL BE            
AROUND 25KTS...BUT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD NOT BE A PROBLEM WITH              
DEWPOINTS WELL INTO THE 60S.                                                    
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE FRONTAL              
BOUNDARY PARKED OUT OVER MICHIGAN AS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE DIVES OVER               
CENTRAL ONTARIO AND LAKE SUPERIOR.  WITH THE APPROACHING                        
WAVE...SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN AHEAD OF ITS COLD FRONT AND              
THE STALLED OUT BOUNDARY WILL RETURN NORTH AS A WARM FRONT.  GFS                
DEVELOPS A 850MB SSW LLJ AROUND 40 KTS ACROSS THE CWA OVERNIGHT...NO            
DOUBT AIDED BY CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK.  COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL OCCUR            
DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY.  TOO EARLY TO GIVE SPECIFICS ON SEVERE             
POTENTIAL...AS THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE MODELS IN                 
REGARDS TO TIMING (GFS A LITTLE QUICKER THAN THE ECMWF) WHICH WOULD             
AFFECTS ITS ALIGNMENT WITH PEAK HEATING.  BUT WILL BUMP UP POPS OVER            
THESE PERIODS WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.                                         
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...GFS/CANADIAN/ECMWF IN BETTER                        
AGREEMENT... ALBEIT STILL NOT GOOD...WITH THE GENERAL UPPER AIR                 
PATTERN HEADING INTO NEXT WEEKEND...BUT POOR RUN TO RUN CONTINUITY              
CONTINUES TO PREVENT ME FROM ADDING MUCH DETAIL TO THE FORECAST                 
DURING THESE PERIODS.  OVERALL PATTERN WISE...NEGATIVE PNA PATTERN              
IS SHAPING UP FOR NEXT WEEKEND...WITH A LARGE RIDGE BUILDING OVER               
THE NORTH CENTRAL PACIFIC...TROUGHING OVER THE WESTERN NOAM...AND               
FLAT RIDGING OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS.  THIS WOULD FAVOR A WARMER AND             
MORE ACTIVE PATTERN FOR MICHIGAN.  MODELS ARE STILL HAVE PHASING                
ISSUES WITH FEATURES ACROSS CENTRAL CANADA...WHICH MAKES SURFACE                
FEATURE TIMING PROBLEMATIC.  MODELS ARE ATTEMPTING TO SHOW THE COLD             
FRONT WHICH WILL APPROACH THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY GETTING HUNG UP               
OVER THE GREAT LAKES...BEFORE AN ADDITIONAL WAVE ON FRIDAY PASSES               
ACROSS THE AREA.  THIS MAKES SOME SENSE AS ZONAL FLOW WILL REMAIN               
WEAK ALOFT AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER CENTRAL CANADA WILL ALSO              
REMAIN WEAK...SO NOT MUCH TO PUSH THE FRONT TO THE SOUTH. AM NOT TOO            
EXCITED ABOUT ADDING POPS EVERY PERIOD THROUGH FRIDAY.  IT WAS JUST             
A DAY OR TWO AGO WE WERE TALKING ABOUT HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING IN ON             
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.  WILL ADD POPS TO MAINTAIN CONTINUITY AMONG                
SURROUNDING OFFICES...BUT OVERALL...WILL NOT MAKE MANY CHANGES UNTIL            
THERE IS MORE CONFIDENCE AMONGST THE MODELS.                                    
MPC                                                                             
&&                                                                              
.APX...WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</PRE></TT></td>   mi                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI                                     
720 PM EDT SUN JUL 23 2006                                                      
.AVIATION...                                                                    
COMBINATION OF LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARIES AND REMNANT OUTFLOW FROM                  
EARLIER CONVECTION ACROSS THE THUMB HAVE CONCENTRATED CUMULUS                   
DEVELOPMENT- AS EVIDENCE BY GOES-E VIS AND KDTX 88D IMAGERY.                    
HOWEVER...THE LACK OF DEEP MOISTURE ON THE UNSTABLE SIDE OF THE                 
BOUNDARIES HAS PREVENTED SHOWERS AND STORMS TO FIRE EARLY THIS                  
EVENING.  LOCAL POOLING OF MOISTURE NEAR BOUNDARY INTERSECTIONS MAY             
BE ENOUGH TO GET ISOLATED CONVECTION TO DEVELOP PRIOR TO SUNSET...              
BUT NOT EXPECTING MUCH AT THIS TIME. HIGH CLOUDS FROM ACTIVITY OVER             
THE WESTERN U.P. AND NORTHERN MINNESOTA ALREADY MAKING PROGRESS INTO            
NORTHWESTERN SECTIONS OF THE LOWER PENINSULA.  ANTI-CYCLONIC FLOW               
ALOFT SHOULD HELP THIN THESE CLOUDS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.                
WINDS WILL INCREASE QUICKLY MONDAY MORNING AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT             
INCREASES IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT SURFACE BOUNDARY.  FURTHERMORE...              
VIGOROUS BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING WILL PROMOTE GUSTY CONDITIONS FROM               
LATE MORNING ON.  NAM SOUNDINGS SUPPORT SAMPLING >30KT FLOW...WHICH             
SHOULD REALIZE IN THE 20-25KT NEIGHBORHOOD.  LOW-LEVEL TROUGH AXIS              
WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD...HOWEVER             
CONVECTION SHOULD DEVELOP ACROSS NORTHERN/WESTERN LOWER DURING THE              
AFTERNOON AND START TO MAKE INROADS INTO THE FORECAST AREA DURING               
THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.  WILL CARRY PROB GROUP IN THE             
NORTHERN SITES FOR THUNDER IN THE POST 20Z TIME WINDOW.                         
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 404 PM EDT SUN JUL 23 2006                            
SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND MONDAY                                                 
12Z RAOBS/WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOW AN AMPLIFIED PATTERN WITH A STRONG              
RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS AND TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES. ONE               
SHORTWAVE EMBEDDED WITHIN THE LONGWAVE TROUGH WAS OVER LAKE                     
HURON...WHILE OTHERS WERE UPSTREAM NEAR THE APOSTLE ISLANDS AND LAKE            
WINNIPEG. SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS BROAD HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT             
LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY...WITH A WEAKNESS/TROUGH OVER CENTRAL LOWER               
MICHIGAN. VIS SATELLITE SHOWS A RATHER MEAGER CU FIELD...EXCEPT                 
ACROSS THE EASTERN CWA NEAR THE GREAT LAKES WHERE LAKE BREEZE                   
CONVERGENCE HAS LED TO MORE ROBUST CLOUDS AS WELL AS PRECIP.                    
REGIONAL RADARS SHOW CONVECTION HAS BEEN BUBBLING FROM NORTHEAST                
LOWER INTO THE THUMB...WITH A FEW STORMS REACHING A SIGNIFICANT                 
INTENSITY.                                                                      
DECENT INSTABILITY ACROSS SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN...GREAT IN THE THUMB               
WITH UP TO 1500J/KG CAPE. DEWPOINT ACROSS THE INTERIOR OF THE CWA               
HAVE MIXED DOWN INTO THE UPPER 40S/LOW 40S...WHICH HAS SEVERELY                 
LIMITED THE AVAILABLE ENERGY. THE ADDED MOISTURE FLUX IN THE ONSHORE            
FLOW FROM LAKE HURON HAS KEPT DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 50S/LOW 60S                
ACROSS THE THUMB. TAMDAR SOUNDINGS ALSO SHOW A DECENT MID-LEVEL                 
CAP...WHICH HAS LIMITED CONVECTION DEVELOP INLAND AND GROWTH NEAR               
THE LAKES...WITH ONLY A FEW STORMS BEING ABLE TO PUNCH THROUGH IT.              
THE SHORTWAVE OVER LAKE HURON WILL TRACK INTO SOUTHEAST ONTARIO THIS            
EVENING...SO WOULD ONLY EXPECT THE CAP TO STRENGTHEN FURTHER ACROSS             
THE WESTERN CWA. OTHER THAN THE THUMB...AM ALSO A LITTLE CONCERNED              
ABOUT THE BETTER CU FIELD ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN CWA FROM PORT                 
HURON TO MONROE. IT IS POSSIBLE WE COULD SEE SOME ADDITIONAL                    
DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE LAKE ST CLAIR/ERIE LAKE BREEZES...HOWEVER WITH            
THE STRONGER CAP IN PLACE WILL ONLY MENTION A SLIGHT CHANCE TSRA IN             
THE SOUTHEAST...AS OPPOSED TO SCATTERED/ISOLATED ACROSS THE THUMB.              
THE LAKE WINNIPEG SHORTWAVE WILL SWING EASTWARD TONIGHT...PROPELLING            
A WARM FRONT INTO THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES. GFS OVERDEVELOPS A                  
CONVECTIVE COMPLEX ALONG THIS FRONT...AND CONSEQUENTLY IS MUCH                  
SLOWER DROPPING THE BOUNDARY SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION.                       
NAM/NGM/DEVELOPMENTAL RUC SHOW A SIMILAR FASTER TIMING...WHICH IS               
PREFERRED. THE FRONT REMAINS WELL NORTH OF THE CWA TONIGHT...BUT                
THERE IS A INCREASE IN MID-LEVEL MOISTURE OVERNIGHT. SOMEWHAT                   
CONCERNED ABOUT THE NOCTURNAL THETA-E ADVECTION PICKING UP AROUND               
SUNRISE. HOWEVER THE AMOUNT OF CIRRUS IN ADDITION TO THE MID CLOUDS             
UPSTREAM SHOULD LIMIT THE DEGREE OF CLOUD-TOP COOLING OVERNIGHT.                
STILL A DECENT SHOT AT THUNDERSTORMS ON MONDAY...ESPECIALLY WITH THE            
INCREASE IN MONDAY AND MORE FOCUS SYNOPTIC LIFT/CONVERGENCE. WITH AN            
INCREASING WIND FIELD AND ANOTHER DAY OF BETTER INSTABILITY...THERE             
IS A POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER. MAINTAINED CHANCE WORDING...BUT              
TRIED TO ADD ADDITIONAL TIMING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. TEMPS AND                   
DEWPOINTS WILL BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN TODAY. ALSO BUMPED UP               
WIND SPEEDS WITH THE TIGHTENING SOUTHWESTERLY GRADIENT...WHICH WILL             
LEAD TO LOW 80S OUT ACROSS THE THUMB AS WELL AS INLAND.                         
LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY                                         
EXPECT CONVECTION ON MONDAY TO CONTINUE INTO MONDAY EVENING AND                 
DIMINISH OVERNIGHT. MODELS START TO DIFFER ON WEAR THE COLD FRONT               
WASHES OUT OVER LOWER MICHIGAN...WITH THE GFS...CANADIAN...EUROPEAN             
AND UKMET FARTHER NORTH THAN THE NAM AND LOCAL WRF. WHERE EVER THE              
FRONT WASHES OUT...THAT IS WHERE THE CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE            
HIGHER ON TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...AND FOR NOW WILL THE HIGHER               
CHANCE POPS FOR THE TRI CITIES AND THUMB REGION. THERE WILL BE                  
SURFACE AND MLCAPES OF AROUND 1500 TO 2000 J/KG...WEAK SURFACE                  
CONVERGENCE WITH THE WASHED OUT FRONT. THERE WILL BE SEVERAL WEAK               
IMPULSES EMBEDDED IN THE WNW FLOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND THE                  
REGION WILL BE IN AREA OF DEFORMATION. THIS WILL BE ENOUGH FOR                  
CHANCE POPS BOTH TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...AGAIN HIGHER TO THE                
NORTHERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA. SEVERE THREAT LOOKS LIMITED BY              
THE LACK OF A STRONG SYSTEM OR WIND FIELD. GUIDANCE TEMPS ARE IN                
GOOD AGREEMENT FOR THE LOWS AND DID NOT DIFFER. FOR TUESDAY                     
HOWEVER...ETA MOS WAS MUCH LOWER GIVEN THE FARTHER SOUTH FRONTAL                
POSITION WITH MORE CLOUDS AND PRECIP. WENT CLOSER TO THE OLD FWC                
WHICH WAS A COMPROMISE WITH A LEAN TOWARD THE WARMER MAV GUIDANCE.              
THE NEXT MOST SOLID SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN LAKES ON                
WEDNESDAY. BOTH THE NAM AND GFS HAVE SOME ADDITIONAL CONVECTIVE                 
ENERGY TO THE SOUTH OF THAT FOR WEDNESDAY. GIVEN THE INSTABILITY                
THAT WILL BE IN PLACE...WEDNESDAY COULD BE BEST CHANCE AND THE MOST             
WIDESPREAD COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORMS.                                           
IN THE WAKE OF THIS SHORTWAVE...THE BOUNDARY/COLD FRONT PUSHES JUST             
SOUTH OF THE STATE LEAVING THE REGION IN MODEST DRY AIR AND GENERAL             
SUBSIDENCE. THEREFORE...WILL TAKE OUT THE CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS               
AND GO WITH A DRY FORECAST.                                                     
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE AND STRONGER COLD FRONT ARE FORECAST TO MOVE INTO             
THE GREAT LAKES ON FRIDAY BY NEARLY ALL OF THE MODELS (EXCEPT THE               
LOCAL WRF...BUT 12Z RUN IS MOVING TOWARD THAT STRONGER FRIDAY COLD              
FRONT). WITH THE PROGGED STRENGTH AND INSTABILITY AHEAD OF THE COLD             
FRONT...THERE COULD BE SOME SEVERE WEATHER CHANCES ON FRIDAY. BEHIND            
THAT COLD FRONT...VERY DRY AND STABLE AIR IN PLACE FOR SATURDAY WITH            
ONLY SOME MID AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE FOR SUNDAY.                              
&&                                                                              
.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
MI...NONE.                                                                      
LAKE HURON...NONE.                                                              
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.                                                           
MI WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.                                                  
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHORT TERM...BRAVENDER                                                          
LONG TERM....RBP                                                                
AVIATION...MANN                                                                 
YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE            
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).                                    
</PRE></TT></td>   mi                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI                                     
404 PM EDT SUN JUL 23 2006                                                      
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND MONDAY                                                
12Z RAOBS/WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOW AN AMPLIFIED PATTERN WITH A STRONG              
RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS AND TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES. ONE               
SHORTWAVE EMBEDDED WITHIN THE LONGWAVE TROUGH WAS OVER LAKE                     
HURON...WHILE OTHERS WERE UPSTREAM NEAR THE APOSTLE ISLANDS AND LAKE            
WINNIPEG. SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS BROAD HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT             
LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY...WITH A WEAKNESS/TROUGH OVER CENTRAL LOWER               
MICHIGAN. VIS SATELLITE SHOWS A RATHER MEAGER CU FIELD...EXCEPT                 
ACROSS THE EASTERN CWA NEAR THE GREAT LAKES WHERE LAKE BREEZE                   
CONVERGENCE HAS LED TO MORE ROBUST CLOUDS AS WELL AS PRECIP.                    
REGIONAL RADARS SHOW CONVECTION HAS BEEN BUBBLING FROM NORTHEAST                
LOWER INTO THE THUMB...WITH A FEW STORMS REACHING A SIGNIFICANT                 
INTENSITY.                                                                      
DECENT INSTABILITY ACROSS SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN...GREAT IN THE THUMB               
WITH UP TO 1500J/KG CAPE. DEWPOINT ACROSS THE INTERIOR OF THE CWA               
HAVE MIXED DOWN INTO THE UPPER 40S/LOW 40S...WHICH HAS SEVERELY                 
LIMITED THE AVAILABLE ENERGY. THE ADDED MOISTURE FLUX IN THE ONSHORE            
FLOW FROM LAKE HURON HAS KEPT DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 50S/LOW 60S                
ACROSS THE THUMB. TAMDAR SOUNDINGS ALSO SHOW A DECENT MID-LEVEL                 
CAP...WHICH HAS LIMITED CONVECTION DEVELOP INLAND AND GROWTH NEAR               
THE LAKES...WITH ONLY A FEW STORMS BEING ABLE TO PUNCH THROUGH IT.              
THE SHORTWAVE OVER LAKE HURON WILL TRACK INTO SOUTHEAST ONTARIO THIS            
EVENING...SO WOULD ONLY EXPECT THE CAP TO STRENGTHEN FURTHER ACROSS             
THE WESTERN CWA. OTHER THAN THE THUMB...AM ALSO A LITTLE CONCERNED              
ABOUT THE BETTER CU FIELD ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN CWA FROM PORT                 
HURON TO MONROE. IT IS POSSIBLE WE COULD SEE SOME ADDITIONAL                    
DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE LAKE ST CLAIR/ERIE LAKE BREEZES...HOWEVER WITH            
THE STRONGER CAP IN PLACE WILL ONLY MENTION A SLIGHT CHANCE TSRA IN             
THE SOUTHEAST...AS OPPOSED TO SCATTERED/ISOLATED ACROSS THE THUMB.              
THE LAKE WINNIPEG SHORTWAVE WILL SWING EASTWARD TONIGHT...PROPELLING            
A WARM FRONT INTO THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES. GFS OVERDEVELOPS A                  
CONVECTIVE COMPLEX ALONG THIS FRONT...AND CONSEQUENTLY IS MUCH                  
SLOWER DROPPING THE BOUNDARY SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION.                       
NAM/NGM/DEVELOPMENTAL RUC SHOW A SIMILAR FASTER TIMING...WHICH IS               
PREFERRED. THE FRONT REMAINS WELL NORTH OF THE CWA TONIGHT...BUT                
THERE IS A INCREASE IN MID-LEVEL MOISTURE OVERNIGHT. SOMEWHAT                   
CONCERNED ABOUT THE NOCTURNAL THETA-E ADVECTION PICKING UP AROUND               
SUNRISE. HOWEVER THE AMOUNT OF CIRRUS IN ADDITION TO THE MID CLOUDS             
UPSTREAM SHOULD LIMIT THE DEGREE OF CLOUD-TOP COOLING OVERNIGHT.                
STILL A DECENT SHOT AT THUNDERSTORMS ON MONDAY...ESPECIALLY WITH THE            
INCREASE IN MONDAY AND MORE FOCUS SYNOPTIC LIFT/CONVERGENCE. WITH AN            
INCREASING WIND FIELD AND ANOTHER DAY OF BETTER INSTABILITY...THERE             
IS A POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER. MAINTAINED CHANCE WORDING...BUT              
TRIED TO ADD ADDITIONAL TIMING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. TEMPS AND                   
DEWPOINTS WILL BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN TODAY. ALSO BUMPED UP               
WIND SPEEDS WITH THE TIGHTENING SOUTHWESTERLY GRADIENT...WHICH WILL             
LEAD TO LOW 80S OUT ACROSS THE THUMB AS WELL AS INLAND.                         
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY                                        
EXPECT CONVECTION ON MONDAY TO CONTINUE INTO MONDAY EVENING AND                 
DIMINISH OVERNIGHT. MODELS START TO DIFFER ON WEAR THE COLD FRONT               
WASHES OUT OVER LOWER MICHIGAN...WITH THE GFS...CANADIAN...EUROPEAN             
AND UKMET FARTHER NORTH THAN THE NAM AND LOCAL WRF. WHERE EVER THE              
FRONT WASHES OUT...THAT IS WHERE THE CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE            
HIGHER ON TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...AND FOR NOW WILL THE HIGHER               
CHANCE POPS FOR THE TRI CITIES AND THUMB REGION. THERE WILL BE                  
SURFACE AND MLCAPES OF AROUND 1500 TO 2000 J/KG...WEAK SURFACE                  
CONVERGENCE WITH THE WASHED OUT FRONT. THERE WILL BE SEVERAL WEAK               
IMPULSES EMBEDDED IN THE WNW FLOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND THE                  
REGION WILL BE IN AREA OF DEFORMATION. THIS WILL BE ENOUGH FOR                  
CHANCE POPS BOTH TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...AGAIN HIGHER TO THE                
NORTHERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA. SEVERE THREAT LOOKS LIMITED BY              
THE LACK OF A STRONG SYSTEM OR WIND FIELD. GUIDANCE TEMPS ARE IN                
GOOD AGREEMENT FOR THE LOWS AND DID NOT DIFFER. FOR TUESDAY                     
HOWEVER...ETA MOS WAS MUCH LOWER GIVEN THE FARTHER SOUTH FRONTAL                
POSITION WITH MORE CLOUDS AND PRECIP. WENT CLOSER TO THE OLD FWC                
WHICH WAS A COMPROMISE WITH A LEAN TOWARD THE WARMER MAV GUIDANCE.              
THE NEXT MOST SOLID SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN LAKES ON                
WEDNESDAY. BOTH THE NAM AND GFS HAVE SOME ADDITIONAL CONVECTIVE                 
ENERGY TO THE SOUTH OF THAT FOR WEDNESDAY. GIVEN THE INSTABILITY                
THAT WILL BE IN PLACE...WEDNESDAY COULD BE BEST CHANCE AND THE MOST             
WIDESPREAD COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORMS.                                           
IN THE WAKE OF THIS SHORTWAVE...THE BOUNDARY/COLD FRONT PUSHES JUST             
SOUTH OF THE STATE LEAVING THE REGION IN MODEST DRY AIR AND GENERAL             
SUBSIDENCE. THEREFORE...WILL TAKE OUT THE CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS               
AND GO WITH A DRY FORECAST.                                                     
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE AND STRONGER COLD FRONT ARE FORECAST TO MOVE INTO             
THE GREAT LAKES ON FRIDAY BY NEARLY ALL OF THE MODELS (EXCEPT THE               
LOCAL WRF...BUT 12Z RUN IS MOVING TOWARD THAT STRONGER FRIDAY COLD              
FRONT). WITH THE PROGGED STRENGTH AND INSTABILITY AHEAD OF THE COLD             
FRONT...THERE COULD BE SOME SEVERE WEATHER CHANCES ON FRIDAY. BEHIND            
THAT COLD FRONT...VERY DRY AND STABLE AIR IN PLACE FOR SATURDAY WITH            
ONLY SOME MID AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE FOR SUNDAY.                              
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 155 PM EDT SUN JUL 23 2006                            
AVIATION...                                                                     
VIS SATELLITE SHOWS A PRETTY FLOW CU FIELD ACROSS SOUTHEAST                     
MICHIGAN...WITH THE EXCEPTION BEING ACROSS THE THUMB. CONVECTION HAS            
BEEN PERCOLATING IN AN AREA OF ENHANCED CONVERGENCE NEAR THE                    
LAKE...ALTHOUGH IT HAS HAD A DIFFICULT TIME FIGHTING A MID-LEVEL CAP            
AROUND 20KFT OR SO DESPITE AROUND 1500J/KG CAPE. CAP APPEARS TO BE              
WEAKENING WITH THE APPROACH OF THE SHORTWAVE...AS RECENT STORMS HAVE            
BEEN MUCH TALLER/STRONGER. HOWEVER GIVEN THE LIMITED CU FIELD                   
FARTHER SOUTHWEST...WITH THE PRESENCE OF A LOWER INVERSION ON 15Z               
TAMDAR SOUNDINGS AND LIMITED INSTABILITY PER SPC MESOANALYSIS...WILL            
LEAVE ANY THUNDER OR RAIN SHOWERS OUT OF THE TAFS. WEAK GRADIENT AND            
LIMITED CLOUD COVER OVERNIGHT...TO BE REPLACED BY A STRONG/GUSTY                
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ON MONDAY AND AN INCREASE IN MID-LEVEL MOISTURE.             
&&                                                                              
.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
MI...NONE.                                                                      
LAKE HURON...NONE.                                                              
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.                                                           
MI WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.                                                  
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHORT TERM...BRAVENDER                                                          
LONG TERM....RBP                                                                
YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE            
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).                                    
</PRE></TT></td>   mi                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
403 PM EDT SUN JUL 23 2006                                                      
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS ARE PRECIPITATION AND SEVERE WEATHER                     
POTENTIAL TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.                                         
CURRENT WEATHER...19Z WATER VAPOR LOOP AND RUC 500MB HEIGHT ANALYSIS            
SHOWED THE PERSISTENT WESTERN NORTH AMERICA RIDGE/EASTERN NORTH                 
AMERICA TROUGH PATTERN. WITHIN THE TROUGH...THE MOST SIGNIFICANT                
FEATURE TO THE FORECAST IS A SHRTWV AND UPPER LOW OVER NE MANITOBA.             
SOUTH OF THIS SHRTWV...A BAND OF THICK CLOUDS EXTENDS SOUTHWARD INTO            
THE WEST HALF OF UPPER MICHIGAN AND NORTHERN WISCONSIN. THIS BAND IS            
ALSO BEING AIDED BY WARM ADVECTION AS SEEN ON 305-310K ISENTROPIC               
SURFACES. KDLH AND KMQT RADARS SHOW SOME LIGHT SHOWERS/SPRINKLES                
UNDER THIS BAND WHICH ARE IMPACTING WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR AND                   
WESTERN UPPER MICHIGAN. THE INCREASED CLOUD COVER HAS HELPED TO HOLD            
TEMPERATURES DOWN TOO WITH CURRENT READINGS ONLY IN THE 60S AND 70S.            
TO THE WEST OF THE BAND OF THICK CLOUDS...TEMPERATURES HAVE RISEN               
WELL INTO THE 80S (THANKS TO 850MB TEMPS IN THE LOW 20S C SEEN ON               
THE 12Z BIS AND ABR SOUNDINGS)...AND WITH DEWPOINTS ANYWHERE FROM               
THE MID 50S TO MID 60S AHEAD OF A SURFACE WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN              
EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA...100MB MIXED LAYER CAPE HAS RISEN TO 500-1000             
J/KG ACROSS MUCH OF MINNESOTA. THE SURFACE COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS             
NORTH OF THE BORDER JUST AHEAD OF THE MAIN SHRTWV...ACROSS CENTRAL              
LAKE WINNIPEG.                                                                  
TONIGHT...SOME QUESTIONS EXIST REGARDING CONVECTIVE EVOLUTION.                  
FIRST...DIURNAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE TRYING TO POP UP                  
ACROSS NORTHEAST MN AHEAD OF A VERY WEAK SHRTWV DROPPING SE ALONG               
THE MN/ONTARIO BORDER. MORE OF THESE MAY FIRE OVER THE NEXT FEW                 
HOURS AS MORE HEATING OCCURS...POSSIBLY MOVING SE INTO THE WESTERN              
U.P. THIS EVENING. RELATIVELY HIGH CLOUD BASES (6000 FT) AND HIGH               
TEMP/DEWPOINT SPREADS MAY RESULT IN SOME THREAT FOR WIND WITH THESE             
STORMS. SEE ARBSWOMCD ISSUED AT 1931Z FOR MORE INFORMATION.                     
SECOND...INSTABILITY WHICH HAS GROWN ACROSS MINNESOTA HAS RESULTED              
IN SOME HIGH THETA-E VALUES. THIS EVENING...305K PLOTS FROM THE NAM             
AND GFS SUGGEST THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME ELEVATED CONVECTION DEVELOP             
FROM THE KEWEENAW INTO THE EASTERN CWA AS 40-45 KT WINDS RISE UP                
FROM NEAR THE SURFACE TO 770 MB OVER A VERY SHORT DISTANCE (EX:                 
DULUTH TO HOUGHTON). IN FACT...GFS QPF PLOT SHOWS A BULLSEYE OF                 
700MB OMEGA OVER EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR AT THE EASTERN U.P. AT 06Z.              
GIVEN THAT THE LOW LEVELS CONTINUE TO REMAIN DRY AND NOT TOO STABLE             
(THANKS TO INCREASING WINDS AHEAD OF THE WARM FRONT)...AND WET-BULB             
ZERO/FREEZING LEVEL HEIGHTS ARE 11000-12000 FT...SOME THREAT WOULD              
EXIST FOR BOTH SEVERE WIND AND HAIL. THIRDLY...MODELS ARE SUGGESTING            
CONVECTION TO FIRE IN SOUTHERN MANITOBA/NW ONTARIO THIS EVENING                 
AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT/SHRTWV...DROPPING INTO UPPER MICHIGAN AFTER             
MIDNIGHT. THIS TOO WOULD HAVE A THREAT FOR SOME SEVERE. SPC DAY 1               
OUTLOOK CONTINUES TO SHOW A SLIGHT RISK FOR THE WEST HALF OF THE                
CWA...BUT IT SEEMS POSSIBLE THAT MUCH OF THE CWA COULD BE IMPACTED              
BY SEVERE WEATHER IF ALL THREE EVOLUTIONS COME TO PASS. WILL NEED TO            
MONITOR ALL THREE THROUGH THE EVENING.                                          
MONDAY...HAVE MAINTAINED SOME CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN            
THE MORNING FOR MUCH OF THE CWA DUE TO DYING CONVECTION. IT DOES                
APPEAR SOME SUNSHINE WILL BE POSSIBLE AFTER THIS CONVECTION                     
DIMINISHES...WHICH WITH 850MB TEMPS AROUND 18C...TEMPERATURES SHOULD            
RISE PRETTY QUICK. MAV GUIDANCE SHOWS READINGS AT IMT AND IWD                   
CLIMBING INTO THE MID 80S...WHICH WOULD SORT OF MATCH WHAT IS GOING             
ON UPSTREAM OVER SE MANITOBA BUT WITHOUT AS MUCH CLOUD COVER.                   
HOWEVER...THIS HEATING COMBINED WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE (MOISTURE               
FROM EITHER POOLING OR FROM PREVIOUS RAINFALL) AND A WEAKENING COLD             
FRONT/LAKE BREEZES WILL LIKELY RESULT IN THE REDEVELOPMENT OF MORE              
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. GREATEST PROBABILITY OF THIS OCCURRING               
APPEARS TO BE IN THE SOUTHERN U.P. SINCE AREAS SUCH AS THE KEWEENAW             
WILL BE UNDER THE STABLE MARINE AIR. 0-6KM SHEAR VALUES PROGGED AT              
25-30KT WOULD SUGGEST MULTICELL CONVECTION...AND WITH FREEZING                  
LEVELS AND WET BULB ZERO HEIGHTS ARE STILL PROGGED IN THE                       
11000-12000 FT RANGE...SOME THREAT EXISTS FOR HAIL. SPC DAY 2                   
OUTLOOK MAINTAINS A SLIGHT RISK ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE              
CWA AND THIS STILL LOOKS GOOD.                                                  
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...NAM CONTINUES TO DRIVE THE COLD FRONT                
SOUTHWARD TO THE MANITOWOC AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT MONDAY NIGHT BEFORE              
RETURNING IT BACK NORTHWARD ON TUESDAY. THE GFS/UKMET/ECMWF KEEP                
THIS FRONT FARTHER NORTH NEAR MARINETTE AS THEY DID YESTERDAY. WILL             
CONTINUE TO FOLLOW THE FARTHER NORTH SOLUTION...ESPECIALLY SINCE                
THERE ARE INDICATIONS A SHRTWV OVER SOUTHERN ALBERTA WILL BE MOVING             
EASTWARD...WHICH WOULD HELP PREVENT THE FRONT FROM DROPPING TOO FAR             
SOUTH. BECAUSE THE FRONT REMAINS JUST SOUTH OF THE CWA...HAVE                   
MAINTAINED A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE WISCONSIN            
BORDER. THIS FRONT...WHICH ALL MODELS AGAIN PROG TO LIFT BACK                   
NORTH...BUT ONLY OVER THE U.P. DURING THE DAY TUESDAY...WILL LIKELY             
SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR MORE CONVECTION ON TUESDAY. HAVE MAINTAINED                
CHANCE POPS FOR THE WHOLE DAY TUESDAY BECAUSE OF ANY ELEVATED                   
CONVECTION THAT MAY TRY TO FIRE ON THE FRONT AS IT LIFTS BACK                   
NORTHWARD TUESDAY MORNING AND FOR DIURNAL CONVECTION ON THE                     
FRONT/LAKE BREEZES TUESDAY AFTERNOON. HARD TO SAY AT THIS POINT                 
WHETHER ANY SEVERE ACTIVITY WILL OCCUR...BUT IT IS SOMETHING TO                 
WATCH. TEMPERATURES BOTH PERIODS SHOULD BE ON THE WARM                          
SIDE...ESPECIALLY WHEN 850MB TEMPS ARE EXPECTING TO REMAIN AT OR                
AROUND 18C.                                                                     
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...GFS/NAM/UKMET AND ECMWF ALL SHOW THE              
FLOW TURNING MORE ZONAL DURING THIS PERIOD...WITH SOME INDICATION OF            
A SHRTWV MOVING THROUGH THE U.P. LATE TUESDAY NIGHT WITH A WEAK COLD            
FRONT...THEN A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT PERSISTING OVER THE CWA                   
THROUGH THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY. GIVEN THAT TUESDAY\S FRONT WILL STILL             
BE OVER THE AREA AND THE AFOREMENTIONED SHRTWV MAY BE COMING                    
THROUGH...IT IS POSSIBLE FOR MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THESE              
MAY END BRIEFLY WEDNESDAY MORNING...BUT THEN LAKE BREEZES COMBINED              
WITH LOW TO MID 60S DEWPOINTS AND TEMPERATURES CLIMBING INTO 80S MAY            
TRY TO FIRE UP SOME MORE STORMS IN THE AFTERNOON. THEREFORE...                  
CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS PERSIST THROUGH WEDNESDAY.                 
TIMING OF THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BECOME BETTER OVER               
THE NEXT FEW MODEL RUNS AS THE SHRTWV EXPECTED TO MOVE IN TUESDAY               
NIGHT MOVES INTO THE U.S..                                                      
EXTENDED (THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...OPERATIONAL MODELS AND 00Z GFS             
ENSEMBLES ARE FAIRLY SIMILAR TO THE WAY THEY APPEARED YESTERDAY...              
HOWEVER MODEL AGREEMENT IS BECOMING BETTER...LEADING TO INCREASING              
CONFIDENCE. SHRTWV TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT...WHICH WERE                
PROGGED BY THE ECMWF/UKMET CAMP YESTERDAY TO MOVE THROUGH LATE                  
WEDNESDAY...IS NOW PROGGED TO MOVE THROUGH ON THURSDAY. BECAUSE OF              
THIS...HAVE EXTENDED THE CHANCE POPS INTO THURSDAY AND BUMPED UP                
HIGHS ON THURSDAY. ECMWF INDICATES 850MB DEWPOINTS OF 14-16C AHEAD              
OF THIS FRONT...ALONG WITH 16-18C 850MB TEMPS AND A SHRTWV MOVING               
THROUGH...SO SEVERE WEATHER COULD NOT TOTALLY BE RULED OUT AS                   
INDICATED TOO BY SPC\S DAY 4-8 OUTLOOK (TOO FAR OUT TO ASSESS                   
PARAMETERS AT THIS TIME). HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO UPPER MICHIGAN               
BEHIND THIS FRONT ON FRI...SO DRIER AND SLIGHTLY COOLER CONDITIONS              
ARE EXPECTED. PATTERN THEN BEGINS TO AMPLIFY NEXT WEEKEND ACROSS                
NORTH AMERICA AS A TROUGH DIGS INTO AND ALONG THE COAST OF THE                  
PACIFIC NW. THIS TROUGH WILL RESULT IN HEIGHT RISES ACROSS THE                  
CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION...AND THEREFORE START THE            
INCREASE IN 850MB TEMPS. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THIS UPCOMING                  
PATTERN...PREDICTED BY ALL OF THE OPERATIONAL MODELS AND GFS                    
ENSEMBLES...IS OPPOSITE OF CLIMATOLOGY WHICH WOULD FAVOR A RIDGE                
ACROSS THE NORTHERN INTERMOUNTAIN STATES AND A TROUGH OVER THE GREAT            
LAKES AND SE CANADA. SO NOT ONLY IS THERE AN INCREASED CONFIDENCE IN            
THE PATTERN...BUT IT IS LIKELY ANOTHER HEAT WAVE WILL BE DEVELOPING             
IN THE PLAINS WITH MCS CONVECTION MOVING AROUND THE CAP OF THE HOT              
AIR. SATURDAY SHOULD REMAIN DRY WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD...BUT               
850MB TEMPS ARE PROGGED TO RISE TO 16-18C BY 00Z SUN. INCREASED WARM            
ADVECTION SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WITH THE HOT AIR IN THE PLAINS             
MOVING TOWARDS UPPER MICHIGAN MAY RESULT IN A FEW ELEVATED STORMS.              
BY 18Z SUNDAY...THE 06Z GFS INDICATES 850MB TEMPS IN THE LOW 20S                
C...SO SUNDAY LOOKS LIKE IT COULD END UP BEING A HOT DAY AWAY FROM              
LAKE MICHIGAN.                                                                  
&&                                                                              
.MQT...WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
AJ                                                                              
</PRE></TT></td>   mi                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI                                     
155 PM EDT SUN JUL 23 2006                                                      
.AVIATION...                                                                    
VIS SATELLITE SHOWS A PRETTY FLOW CU FIELD ACROSS SOUTHEAST                     
MICHIGAN...WITH THE EXCEPTION BEING ACROSS THE THUMB. CONVECTION HAS            
BEEN PERCOLATING IN AN AREA OF ENHANCED CONVERGENCE NEAR THE                    
LAKE...ALTHOUGH IT HAS HAD A DIFFICULT TIME FIGHTING A MID-LEVEL CAP            
AROUND 20KFT OR SO DESPITE AROUND 1500J/KG CAPE. CAP APPEARS TO BE              
WEAKENING WITH THE APPROACH OF THE SHORTWAVE...AS RECENT STORMS HAVE            
BEEN MUCH TALLER/STRONGER. HOWEVER GIVEN THE LIMITED CU FIELD                   
FARTHER SOUTHWEST...WITH THE PRESENCE OF A LOWER INVERSION ON 15Z               
TAMDAR SOUNDINGS AND LIMITED INSTABILITY PER SPC MESOANALYSIS...WILL            
LEAVE ANY THUNDER OR RAIN SHOWERS OUT OF THE TAFS. WEAK GRADIENT AND            
LIMITED CLOUD COVER OVERNIGHT...TO BE REPLACED BY A STRONG/GUSTY                
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ON MONDAY AND AN INCREASE IN MID-LEVEL MOISTURE.             
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 1117 AM EDT SUN JUL 23 2006                           
UPDATE...                                                                       
SHORTWAVE APPARENT IN WATER VAPOR LOOP NEAR THE STRAITS WILL DROP               
SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS LAKE HURON THIS AFTERNOON. THE SURFACE FRONT               
FROM YESTERDAY HAS ALL BUT WASHED OUT...HOWEVER THERE REMAINS A WEAK            
TROUGH FROM SOUTHEAST ONTARIO AND LOWER MICHIGAN. 12Z RUC LOOKS                 
UNDERDONE IN ITS DEPICTION OF A WEAK THETA-E RIDGE ACROSS NORTHERN              
LOWER/LAKE HURON...WHERE CLOUDS HAVE MAINTAINED AND A FEW SHOWERS               
HAVE BEEN PERCOLATING THIS MORNING. WITH WEAK CONVERGENCE/MOISTURE              
AT THE SURFACE AND THE UPPER SUPPORT AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE...WE                
SHOULD SEE CONVECTION INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY AS WE                  
DESTABILIZE THIS AFTERNOON. KEPT SCATTERED WORDING ACROSS THE                   
SAGINAW VALLEY AND THUMB AND INCREASED THE POPS A BIT GIVEN ACTIVITY            
ALREADY UPSTREAM THIS MORNING. WITH THE SHORTWAVE JUST BRUSHING THE             
NORTHEASTERN CWA...KEPT ISOLATED COVERAGE ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST THIS             
AFTERNOON. 12Z APX/TAMDAR SOUNDINGS DO SHOW A STRONGER MID-LEVEL CAP            
FARTHER NORTH...BUT THIS SHOULD WEAKEN/ERODE WITH THE APPROACH OF               
THE SHORTWAVE. SOUNDINGS ACROSS SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN SHOW A FAIR                  
AMOUNT OF DRY AIR JUST OFF THE SURFACE. DEWPOINTS CLIMBED BACK NEAR             
60F AFTER SUNRISE...BUT AS OF 15Z MANY STATIONS HAVE ALREADY MIXED              
BACK DOWN INTO THE MID/UPPER 50S. WITHOUT ANY REAL MOISTURE                     
ADVECTION...EXPECT THAT INSTABILITY WILL BE LIMITED GIVEN THE AMOUNT            
OF DRY LOW-LEVEL AIR. MODIFIED 12Z DTX SOUNDING FOR 80/55 YIELDS                
1700J/KG CAPE...WHICH IS LIKELY THE HIGH END AS DEWPOINTS WILL MORE             
LIKELY MIX DOWN INTO AT LEAST THE LOW 50S.                                      
SHORT TERM...TODAY AND TONIGHT                                                  
THE HIGHLY AMPLIFIED PATTERN ACROSS NORTH AMERICA IS FORECAST TO                
TRANSITION TO A MORE ZONAL PATTERN DURING THE SHORT TERM AS THE                 
STRONG RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN US FLATTENS AND THE LONG WAVE TROUGH              
OVER THE GREAT LAKES MOVES TO THE NORTHEAST. THE CURRENT WATER VAPOR            
LOOP SHOWS A RATHER STRONG SHORT WAVE EMBEDDED WITHIN THE MEAN                  
TROUGH ROTATING INTO EASTERN UPPER MI. THIS WAVE IS FORECAST TO MOVE            
ACROSS SOUTHERN LAKE HURON EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...SPREADING SOME                
WEAK MID LEVEL LIFT ACROSS SOUTHEAST MI. WOULD EXPECT THAT THIS LIFT            
WILL ENHANCE SURFACE TROUGHING ACROSS SOUTHERN MICHIGAN...AS                    
INDICATED BY MODEL SOLUTIONS. NAM MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW SURFACE BASED            
CAPE OF 1000 TO 1500 J/KG ACROSS THE SAGINAW VALLEY AND THUMB BY                
AFTERNOON...WITH CAPE DECREASING TO 500 TO 800 J/KG AROUND DETROIT              
WHERE THERE IS LESS AVAILABLE MOISTURE BELOW 850MB. FEEL THE                    
INSTABILITY ALONG WITH THE WEAK UPPER SUPPORT AND COLD AIR ALOFT                
WILL WARRANT MAINTAINING A MENTION OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS                 
TODAY. THE NAM AND RUC ACTUALLY SUGGEST SOME CONVECTIVE INITIATION              
IS POSSIBLE BY LATE MORNING ACROSS THE SAGINAW VALLEY AND THUMB.                
HOWEVER...A BIG LIMITING FACTOR FOR MORE WIDESPREAD CONVECTION TODAY            
WILL BE A CAPPING INVERSION NEAR 650MB. THE NAM IS MUCH STRONGER                
WITH THIS CAP COMPARED TO THE GFS. THE GFS ACTUALLY INITIALIZED MID             
LEVEL TEMPS BETTER THAN THE NAM...BUT STILL INDICATES A                         
STRENGTHENING CAPPING INVERSION THROUGH THE DAY. THUS WILL KEEP POPS            
RELATIVELY LOW...CARRYING SCATTERED POPS IN THE SAGINAW VALLEY AND              
THUMB AND JUST ISOLATED TOWARD DETROIT.                                         
AS THE MID LEVEL FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL TONIGHT...LOW LEVEL THETA E            
ADVECTION WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AS WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY               
LOW LEVEL FLOW STRENGTHENS. THE 00Z NCEP SUITE ARE IN STRONG                    
AGREEMENT THAT THE BEST LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT WILL OCCUR                 
ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER MI. SO WILL PLAN TO LEAVE THE FORECAST DRY                
WITH JUST AN INCREASE IN MID CLOUDS EXPECTED.                                   
LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY                                             
GET READY FOR AN ACTIVE WEEK WITH THE POTENTIAL OF SEVERE WEATHER               
AND FLOODING LOOMING FOR MOST OF THIS WEEK.                                     
OUR HIGH AMPLITUDE FLOW WILL BECOME MORE ZONAL THIS MID RANGE PERIOD            
AS A PERSISTENT LOW LEVEL JET AND A SERIES OF WAVES INTERACT WITH A             
QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT ACROSS THE HEART OF THE GREAT LAKES.  SURE               
DETAILS AT THIS TIME ARE NEARLY IMPOSSIBLE TO FORECAST AS SUBTLE                
CHANGES COULD PROVIDE HUGE DIFFERENCES TO SENSIBLE WEATHER.                     
NEVERTHELESS...NUMERICAL SUITE FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK POINT TOWARD AN              
IMPRESSIVE WARM THERMAL ADVECTION WITH THE NOSE OF THE INCREASING               
LOW LEVEL JET POINTING TOWARD THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY                
THEN PROPAGATING ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER MONDAY.  THIS SHOULD SET THE             
STAGE FOR AN MCS DEVELOPMENT AND PERHAPS ADDITIONAL ELEVATED                    
CONVECTION ALONG THE 850MB FRONT FURTHER SOUTH THROUGH MONDAY.                  
MEANWHILE AT THE SURFACE...WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTHWARD AND TIMING            
OF THIS ALONG WITH DAYTIME HEATING COULD PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR                    
CONVECTION AND PERHAPS A ROUND OF SEVERE WEATHER.  AT THIS TIME WE              
WILL RETAIN THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE                 
NORTH IN THE MORNING THEN EXTENDING SOUTH THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON.             
TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS WILL BE ON THE RISE WITH 80S AND 60S...              
RESPECTFULLY.                                                                   
THIS THEME WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEK WITH QUASI-STATIONARY                 
BOUNDARY IN PLACE AND A SERIES OF SHORT WAVES COMING ACROSS THE                 
ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN CONUS. WITH TRAINING ECHOES AND HIGH             
PWATS IN PLACE...THE ADDITIONAL HAZARD WILL BE LOCALIZED                        
FLOODING...ESPECIALLY IF WE SEE SEVERAL MCS/S TRACK ACROSS THE                  
REGION. PERHAPS THE ONLY CONSENSUS WE ARE ABLE TO OBTAIN THIS                   
MORNING IS A REMARKABLE TREND TOWARD SURFACE HIGHER PRESSURES BY                
LATE FRIDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND.  THEREFORE WE WILL EXTEND THE DRY                
WEATHER THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND WITH LOWER DEWPOINTS.  THEN                
LOOKING FURTHER AHEAD...TRENDS IN THE NAO TOWARD THE POSITIVE SIDE              
USUALLY RESULTS IN HIGHER HEIGHTS ACROSS THE CENTER OF THE NATION               
INTO THE GREAT LAKES WHICH SEEMS TO BE OCCURRING IN THE GFS AND                 
ECMWF.  SO WARMER TEMPS MIGHT BE IN THE FORECAST 10 DAYS OUT.                   
&&                                                                              
.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
MI...NONE.                                                                      
LAKE HURON...NONE.                                                              
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.                                                           
MI WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.                                                  
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
AVIATION.....BRAVENDER                                                          
UPDATE.......BRAVENDER                                                          
SHORT TERM...CONSIDINE                                                          
LONG TERM....BGM                                                                
YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE            
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).                                    
</PRE></TT></td>   mi                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI                                     
1117 AM EDT SUN JUL 23 2006                                                     
.UPDATE...                                                                      
SHORTWAVE APPARENT IN WATER VAPOR LOOP NEAR THE STRAITS WILL DROP               
SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS LAKE HURON THIS AFTERNOON. THE SURFACE FRONT               
FROM YESTERDAY HAS ALL BUT WASHED OUT...HOWEVER THERE REMAINS A WEAK            
TROUGH FROM SOUTHEAST ONTARIO AND LOWER MICHIGAN. 12Z RUC LOOKS                 
UNDERDONE IN ITS DEPICTION OF A WEAK THETA-E RIDGE ACROSS NORTHERN              
LOWER/LAKE HURON...WHERE CLOUDS HAVE MAINTAINED AND A FEW SHOWERS               
HAVE BEEN PERCOLATING THIS MORNING. WITH WEAK CONVERGENCE/MOISTURE              
AT THE SURFACE AND THE UPPER SUPPORT AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE...WE                
SHOULD SEE CONVECTION INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY AS WE                  
DESTABILIZE THIS AFTERNOON. KEPT SCATTERED WORDING ACROSS THE                   
SAGINAW VALLEY AND THUMB AND INCREASED THE POPS A BIT GIVEN ACTIVITY            
ALREADY UPSTREAM THIS MORNING. WITH THE SHORTWAVE JUST BRUSHING THE             
NORTHEASTERN CWA...KEPT ISOLATED COVERAGE ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST THIS             
AFTERNOON. 12Z APX/TAMDAR SOUNDINGS DO SHOW A STRONGER MID-LEVEL CAP            
FARTHER NORTH...BUT THIS SHOULD WEAKEN/ERODE WITH THE APPROACH OF               
THE SHORTWAVE. SOUNDINGS ACROSS SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN SHOW A FAIR                  
AMOUNT OF DRY AIR JUST OFF THE SURFACE. DEWPOINTS CLIMBED BACK NEAR             
60F AFTER SUNRISE...BUT AS OF 15Z MANY STATIONS HAVE ALREADY MIXED              
BACK DOWN INTO THE MID/UPPER 50S. WITHOUT ANY REAL MOISTURE                     
ADVECTION...EXPECT THAT INSTABILITY WILL BE LIMITED GIVEN THE AMOUNT            
OF DRY LOW-LEVEL AIR. MODIFIED 12Z DTX SOUNDING FOR 80/55 YIELDS                
1700J/KG CAPE...WHICH IS LIKELY THE HIGH END AS DEWPOINTS WILL MORE             
LIKELY MIX DOWN INTO AT LEAST THE LOW 50S.                                      
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 705 AM EDT SUN JUL 23 2006                            
AVIATION...                                                                     
WITH THE ONSET OF DAYTIME HEATING AND GIVEN THE COLD AIR ALOFT                  
ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE REGION...EXPECT A               
SCATTERED TO BROKEN CU FIELD TO DEVELOP BY AFTERNOON. CEILING                   
HEIGHTS WILL BE VFR. HOWEVER...A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CEILINGS WILL             
BE POSSIBLE THIS MORNING AROUND MBS GIVEN THE SLIGHTLY HIGHER                   
BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE FROM THE SAGINAW VALLEY NORTHWARD. A SHORT              
WAVE TROUGH PASSING ACROSS LAKE HURON THIS MORNING AND EARLY                    
AFTERNOON ALONG WITH INCREASING INSTABILITY THROUGHOUT THE DAY                  
SHOULD TOUCH OFF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS                
THIS AFTERNOON. FEEL THE LIKELIHOOD OF PRECIP HITTING THE TAF SITES             
REMAINS TOO LOW TO PLACE IN THE TAF AT THIS TIME.                               
SHORT TERM...TODAY AND TONIGHT                                                  
THE HIGHLY AMPLIFIED PATTERN ACROSS NORTH AMERICA IS FORECAST TO                
TRANSITION TO A MORE ZONAL PATTERN DURING THE SHORT TERM AS THE                 
STRONG RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN US FLATTENS AND THE LONG WAVE TROUGH              
OVER THE GREAT LAKES MOVES TO THE NORTHEAST. THE CURRENT WATER VAPOR            
LOOP SHOWS A RATHER STRONG SHORT WAVE EMBEDDED WITHIN THE MEAN                  
TROUGH ROTATING INTO EASTERN UPPER MI. THIS WAVE IS FORECAST TO MOVE            
ACROSS SOUTHERN LAKE HURON EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...SPREADING SOME                
WEAK MID LEVEL LIFT ACROSS SOUTHEAST MI. WOULD EXPECT THAT THIS LIFT            
WILL ENHANCE SURFACE TROUGHING ACROSS SOUTHERN MICHIGAN...AS                    
INDICATED BY MODEL SOLUTIONS. NAM MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW SURFACE BASED            
CAPE OF 1000 TO 1500 J/KG ACROSS THE SAGINAW VALLEY AND THUMB BY                
AFTERNOON...WITH CAPE DECREASING TO 500 TO 800 J/KG AROUND DETROIT              
WHERE THERE IS LESS AVAILABLE MOISTURE BELOW 850MB. FEEL THE                    
INSTABILITY ALONG WITH THE WEAK UPPER SUPPORT AND COLD AIR ALOFT                
WILL WARRANT MAINTAINING A MENTION OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS                 
TODAY. THE NAM AND RUC ACTUALLY SUGGEST SOME CONVECTIVE INITIATION              
IS POSSIBLE BY LATE MORNING ACROSS THE SAGINAW VALLEY AND THUMB.                
HOWEVER...A BIG LIMITING FACTOR FOR MORE WIDESPREAD CONVECTION TODAY            
WILL BE A CAPPING INVERSION NEAR 650MB. THE NAM IS MUCH STRONGER                
WITH THIS CAP COMPARED TO THE GFS. THE GFS ACTUALLY INITIALIZED MID             
LEVEL TEMPS BETTER THAN THE NAM...BUT STILL INDICATES A                         
STRENGTHENING CAPPING INVERSION THROUGH THE DAY. THUS WILL KEEP POPS            
RELATIVELY LOW...CARRYING SCATTERED POPS IN THE SAGINAW VALLEY AND              
THUMB AND JUST ISOLATED TOWARD DETROIT.                                         
AS THE MID LEVEL FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL TONIGHT...LOW LEVEL THETA E            
ADVECTION WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AS WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY               
LOW LEVEL FLOW STRENGTHENS. THE 00Z NCEP SUITE ARE IN STRONG                    
AGREEMENT THAT THE BEST LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT WILL OCCUR                 
ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER MI. SO WILL PLAN TO LEAVE THE FORECAST DRY                
WITH JUST AN INCREASE IN MID CLOUDS EXPECTED.                                   
LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY                                             
GET READY FOR AN ACTIVE WEEK WITH THE POTENTIAL OF SEVERE WEATHER               
AND FLOODING LOOMING FOR MOST OF THIS WEEK.                                     
OUR HIGH AMPLITUDE FLOW WILL BECOME MORE ZONAL THIS MID RANGE PERIOD            
AS A PERSISTENT LOW LEVEL JET AND A SERIES OF WAVES INTERACT WITH A             
QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT ACROSS THE HEART OF THE GREAT LAKES.  SURE               
DETAILS AT THIS TIME ARE NEARLY IMPOSSIBLE TO FORECAST AS SUBTLE                
CHANGES COULD PROVIDE HUGE DIFFERENCES TO SENSIBLE WEATHER.                     
NEVERTHELESS...NUMERICAL SUITE FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK POINT TOWARD AN              
IMPRESSIVE WARM THERMAL ADVECTION WITH THE NOSE OF THE INCREASING               
LOW LEVEL JET POINTING TOWARD THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY                
THEN PROPAGATING ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER MONDAY.  THIS SHOULD SET THE             
STAGE FOR AN MCS DEVELOPMENT AND PERHAPS ADDITIONAL ELEVATED                    
CONVECTION ALONG THE 850MB FRONT FURTHER SOUTH THROUGH MONDAY.                  
MEANWHILE AT THE SURFACE...WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTHWARD AND TIMING            
OF THIS ALONG WITH DAYTIME HEATING COULD PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR                    
CONVECTION AND PERHAPS A ROUND OF SEVERE WEATHER.  AT THIS TIME WE              
WILL RETAIN THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE                 
NORTH IN THE MORNING THEN EXTENDING SOUTH THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON.             
TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS WILL BE ON THE RISE WITH 80S AND 60S...              
RESPECTFULLY.                                                                   
THIS THEME WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEK WITH QUASI-STATIONARY                 
BOUNDARY IN PLACE AND A SERIES OF SHORT WAVES COMING ACROSS THE                 
ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN CONUS. WITH TRAINING ECHOES AND HIGH             
PWATS IN PLACE...THE ADDITIONAL HAZARD WILL BE LOCALIZED                        
FLOODING...ESPECIALLY IF WE SEE SEVERAL MCS/S TRACK ACROSS THE                  
REGION. PERHAPS THE ONLY CONSENSUS WE ARE ABLE TO OBTAIN THIS                   
MORNING IS A REMARKABLE TREND TOWARD SURFACE HIGHER PRESSURES BY                
LATE FRIDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND.  THEREFORE WE WILL EXTEND THE DRY                
WEATHER THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND WITH LOWER DEWPOINTS.  THEN                
LOOKING FURTHER AHEAD...TRENDS IN THE NAO TOWARD THE POSITIVE SIDE              
USUALLY RESULTS IN HIGHER HEIGHTS ACROSS THE CENTER OF THE NATION               
INTO THE GREAT LAKES WHICH SEEMS TO BE OCCURRING IN THE GFS AND                 
ECMWF.  SO WARMER TEMPS MIGHT BE IN THE FORECAST 10 DAYS OUT.                   
&&                                                                              
.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
MI...NONE.                                                                      
LAKE HURON...NONE.                                                              
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.                                                           
MI WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.                                                  
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
UPDATE.......BRAVENDER                                                          
AVIATION.....CONSIDINE                                                          
SHORT TERM...CONSIDINE                                                          
LONG TERM....BGM                                                                
YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE            
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).                                    
</PRE></TT></td>   mi                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI                                     
705 AM EDT SUN JUL 23 2006                                                      
.AVIATION...                                                                    
WITH THE ONSET OF DAYTIME HEATING AND GIVEN THE COLD AIR ALOFT                  
ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE REGION...EXPECT A               
SCATTERED TO BROKEN CU FIELD TO DEVELOP BY AFTERNOON. CEILING                   
HEIGHTS WILL BE VFR. HOWEVER...A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CEILINGS WILL             
BE POSSIBLE THIS MORNING AROUND MBS GIVEN THE SLIGHTLY HIGHER                   
BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE FROM THE SAGINAW VALLEY NORTHWARD. A SHORT              
WAVE TROUGH PASSING ACROSS LAKE HURON THIS MORNING AND EARLY                    
AFTERNOON ALONG WITH INCREASING INSTABILITY THROUGHOUT THE DAY                  
SHOULD TOUCH OFF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS                
THIS AFTERNOON. FEEL THE LIKELIHOOD OF PRECIP HITTING THE TAF SITES             
REMAINS TOO LOW TO PLACE IN THE TAF AT THIS TIME.                               
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 315 AM EDT SUN JUL 23 2006                            
SHORT TERM...TODAY AND TONIGHT                                                  
THE HIGHLY AMPLIFIED PATTERN ACROSS NORTH AMERICA IS FORECAST TO                
TRANSITION TO A MORE ZONAL PATTERN DURING THE SHORT TERM AS THE                 
STRONG RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN US FLATTENS AND THE LONG WAVE TROUGH              
OVER THE GREAT LAKES MOVES TO THE NORTHEAST. THE CURRENT WATER VAPOR            
LOOP SHOWS A RATHER STRONG SHORT WAVE EMBEDDED WITHIN THE MEAN                  
TROUGH ROTATING INTO EASTERN UPPER MI. THIS WAVE IS FORECAST TO MOVE            
ACROSS SOUTHERN LAKE HURON EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...SPREADING SOME                
WEAK MID LEVEL LIFT ACROSS SOUTHEAST MI. WOULD EXPECT THAT THIS LIFT            
WILL ENHANCE SURFACE TROUGHING ACROSS SOUTHERN MICHIGAN...AS                    
INDICATED BY MODEL SOLUTIONS. NAM MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW SURFACE BASED            
CAPE OF 1000 TO 1500 J/KG ACROSS THE SAGINAW VALLEY AND THUMB BY                
AFTERNOON...WITH CAPE DECREASING TO 500 TO 800 J/KG AROUND DETROIT              
WHERE THERE IS LESS AVAILABLE MOISTURE BELOW 850MB. FEEL THE                    
INSTABILITY ALONG WITH THE WEAK UPPER SUPPORT AND COLD AIR ALOFT                
WILL WARRANT MAINTAINING A MENTION OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS                 
TODAY. THE NAM AND RUC ACTUALLY SUGGEST SOME CONVECTIVE INITIATION              
IS POSSIBLE BY LATE MORNING ACROSS THE SAGINAW VALLEY AND THUMB.                
HOWEVER...A BIG LIMITING FACTOR FOR MORE WIDESPREAD CONVECTION TODAY            
WILL BE A CAPPING INVERSION NEAR 650MB. THE NAM IS MUCH STRONGER                
WITH THIS CAP COMPARED TO THE GFS. THE GFS ACTUALLY INITIALIZED MID             
LEVEL TEMPS BETTER THAN THE NAM...BUT STILL INDICATES A                         
STRENGTHENING CAPPING INVERSION THROUGH THE DAY. THUS WILL KEEP POPS            
RELATIVELY LOW...CARRYING SCATTERED POPS IN THE SAGINAW VALLEY AND              
THUMB AND JUST ISOLATED TOWARD DETROIT.                                         
AS THE MID LEVEL FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL TONIGHT...LOW LEVEL THETA E            
ADVECTION WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AS WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY               
LOW LEVEL FLOW STRENGTHENS. THE 00Z NCEP SUITE ARE IN STRONG                    
AGREEMENT THAT THE BEST LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT WILL OCCUR                 
ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER MI. SO WILL PLAN TO LEAVE THE FORECAST DRY                
WITH JUST AN INCREASE IN MID CLOUDS EXPECTED.                                   
LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY                                             
GET READY FOR AN ACTIVE WEEK WITH THE POTENTIAL OF SEVERE WEATHER               
AND FLOODING LOOMING FOR MOST OF THIS WEEK.                                     
OUR HIGH AMPLITUDE FLOW WILL BECOME MORE ZONAL THIS MID RANGE PERIOD            
AS A PERSISTENT LOW LEVEL JET AND A SERIES OF WAVES INTERACT WITH A             
QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT ACROSS THE HEART OF THE GREAT LAKES.  SURE               
DETAILS AT THIS TIME ARE NEARLY IMPOSSIBLE TO FORECAST AS SUBTLE                
CHANGES COULD PROVIDE HUGE DIFFERENCES TO SENSIBLE WEATHER.                     
NEVERTHELESS...NUMERICAL SUITE FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK POINT TOWARD AN              
IMPRESSIVE WARM THERMAL ADVECTION WITH THE NOSE OF THE INCREASING               
LOW LEVEL JET POINTING TOWARD THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY                
THEN PROPAGATING ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER MONDAY.  THIS SHOULD SET THE             
STAGE FOR AN MCS DEVELOPMENT AND PERHAPS ADDITIONAL ELEVATED                    
CONVECTION ALONG THE 850MB FRONT FURTHER SOUTH THROUGH MONDAY.                  
MEANWHILE AT THE SURFACE...WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTHWARD AND TIMING            
OF THIS ALONG WITH DAYTIME HEATING COULD PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR                    
CONVECTION AND PERHAPS A ROUND OF SEVERE WEATHER.  AT THIS TIME WE              
WILL RETAIN THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE                 
NORTH IN THE MORNING THEN EXTENDING SOUTH THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON.             
TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS WILL BE ON THE RISE WITH 80S AND 60S...              
RESPECTFULLY.                                                                   
THIS THEME WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEK WITH QUASI-STATIONARY                 
BOUNDARY IN PLACE AND A SERIES OF SHORT WAVES COMING ACROSS THE                 
ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN CONUS. WITH TRAINING ECHOES AND HIGH             
PWATS IN PLACE...THE ADDITIONAL HAZARD WILL BE LOCALIZED                        
FLOODING...ESPECIALLY IF WE SEE SEVERAL MCS/S TRACK ACROSS THE                  
REGION. PERHAPS THE ONLY CONSENSUS WE ARE ABLE TO OBTAIN THIS                   
MORNING IS A REMARKABLE TREND TOWARD SURFACE HIGHER PRESSURES BY                
LATE FRIDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND.  THEREFORE WE WILL EXTEND THE DRY                
WEATHER THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND WITH LOWER DEWPOINTS.  THEN                
LOOKING FURTHER AHEAD...TRENDS IN THE NAO TOWARD THE POSITIVE SIDE              
USUALLY RESULTS IN HIGHER HEIGHTS ACROSS THE CENTER OF THE NATION               
INTO THE GREAT LAKES WHICH SEEMS TO BE OCCURRING IN THE GFS AND                 
ECMWF.  SO WARMER TEMPS MIGHT BE IN THE FORECAST 10 DAYS OUT.                   
&&                                                                              
.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
MI...NONE.                                                                      
LAKE HURON...NONE.                                                              
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.                                                           
MI WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.                                                  
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHORT TERM...CONSIDINE                                                          
LONG TERM....BGM                                                                
AVIATION...CONSIDINE                                                            
YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE            
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).                                    
</PRE></TT></td>   mi                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN                              
343 PM CDT SUN JUL 23 2006                                                      
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE IS WHERE BOUNDARY...MOVING SOUTHEAST OUT                
OF NORTHWEST MINNESOTA...WILL SET UP FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON AND                   
EVENING...AND BEST AREAS FOR ASSOCIATED CONVECTION ON INTO                      
TUESDAY. SOME STRONG CONVECTION DEVELOPING AHEAD OF FRONT IN                    
NORTHEAST MINNESOTA...WITH DECENT SHORT WAVE DROPPING SOUTHEAST.                
SOME CHANCE OF DEVELOPMENT THIS EVENING OVER EAST CENTRAL MN AND                
WESTERN WISCONSIN AHEAD OF WEAK TROF OVER WEST CENTRAL MN. RUC IS               
SHOWING AN AREA OF LOW LEVEL THETA E ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE TROUGH              
AS IT MOVES EAST THIS EVENING. DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS AROUND 35 KNOTS              
OVER AREA. 20Z LAPS CIN SHOWING AROUND 80 OR HIGHER OVER PARTS OF               
CENTRAL MN YET...AND MAY NOT GET MUCH LOWER. NAM HAS COME AROUND                
MORE TO GFS POSITION OF FRONT OVER ABOUT THE CENTER OF THE CWA ON               
MONDAY. BOTH GFS AND NAM DO SHOW 850 TROUGH MOVING THROUGH                      
EASTERN AREAS ON MONDAY MORNING SO IT MAY BE MORE IN LATER                      
AFTERNOON UNTIL CONVECTION GETS GOING. BEST AREA PROBABLY OVER                  
CENTRAL MN NEAR BETTER INSTABILITY GRADIENT. GFS SHOWING A RATHER               
STRONG RETURN OF 850 MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND ASSOCIATED INCREASE              
IN PRECIPITABLE WATER NEAR OR JUST NORTH OF BOUNDARY MONDAY                     
NIGHT. WILL GO MORE WITH THIS SIGNAL FOR HIGHEST POPS DURING                    
PERIOD...STARTING WITH CENTRAL MN AREAS...AND THEN SOUTH                        
OVERNIGHT. IF GFS IS CORRECT...MAIN BOUNDARY MAY BE PUSHED SOUTH                
DURING TUESDAY...SO A LITTLE MORE DIFFICULT TO ASSESS POP LATE                  
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. WILL..HOWEVER..PLACE A LITTLE HIGHER              
POPS SOUTH CENTRAL MN..IN CASE NAM IS CORRECT WITH DEVELOPMENT IN               
THIS AREA.                                                                      
LONGER TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY                                    
12Z OPERATIONAL GFS NOT QUITE AS AMPLIFIED AS BEFORE...AND IN                   
RELATIVELY DECENT AGREEMENT WITH THE 12Z ECMWF AND 12Z UKMET FOR                
THURSDAY. ALL MODELS BRING SHORT WAVE ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST...               
EXITING THE CWA THURSDAY NIGHT. RIDGE BUILDS IN THEREAFTER SO HAVE              
CONTINUED THE DRY WX FORECAST FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. UK AND GFS                  
SUGGEST RIDGE RIDER POSSIBLE SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH ECMWF NOT ALL                
THAT FAR BEHIND. HAVE MENTIONED POPS SAT NIGHT AMID WARM ADVECTION              
WITH ENSEMBLE TEMPS STILL NOT OVERLY WARM. WL KP SUNDAY DRY WHEN MID            
LEVEL TEMPS LOOK LIKE THEY WILL BECOME TOO WARM...THO HPC DOES FLAG             
SUNDAY FOR POSSIBLE PRECIP. SOMETHING TO WATCH. SHOULD SEE MORE 90              
DEGREE MAX TEMPS NEXT WEEKEND.                                                  
&&                                                                              
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
MN...NONE.                                                                      
WI...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
JPR/TDK                                                                         
</PRE></TT></td>   mn                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC                                             
1030 PM EDT SUN JUL 23 2006                                                     
.SHORT TERM /REST OF TONIGHT/...                                                
WIDESPREAD CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON HAS DROPPED MOSTLY TO THE                  
SOUTH OF THE RAH CWA... ALTHOUGH A FEW STORMS ARE LIKELY TO TRACK               
ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHERN COUNTIES OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. CURRENT               
POP FORECAST HAS THIS COVERED WELL. 00Z GSO SOUNDING SHOWS                      
CONSIDERABLE STABILIZATION WITH GOOD MID LEVEL WARMING TAKING                   
PLACE... ALTHOUGH THE LINGERING HIGH SURFACE DEWPOINTS OVER CENTRAL             
NC ARE KEEPING MUCAPES AROUND 500-1000 J/KG WITH WEAK LOW LEVEL                 
CONVERGENCE PERSISTING THROUGH THE PIEDMONT. THE LATEST RUC AND                 
NAM12 DROP THE 925-850 MB TROUGH SOUTHEAST INTO SOUTHEAST NC...                 
POSSIBLY HASTENED BY THE DEPARTURE OF THE 110+ KT UPPER JET'S RIGHT             
ENTRANCE REGION TO OUR NORTHWEST AND THE 500 MB VORTICITY LOBE                  
SWINGING THROUGH. THE DRY AIR PUSH NEAR THE SURFACE IS LESS PROFOUND            
HOWEVER... WITH A FAIRLY WEAK SURFACE HIGH EASING INTO THE AREA FROM            
THE NORTHWEST GIVING MINIMAL PUSH TO THE BAGGY SURFACE FRONT... AND             
EXPECT DEWPOINTS AND THUS TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN UP A BIT OVERNIGHT.            
AS A RESULT... MINIMUM TEMPS HAVE BEEN RAISED 1-3 DEGREES TONIGHT.              
WILL ALSO INCLUDE A MENTION OF PATCHY FOG... AS NEARLY THE ENTIRE               
AREA HAS SEEN RAIN AND THE MID AND HIGH CLOUDS ARE THINNING/EXITING.            
AREAS OF STRATUS ARE LIKELY AS WELL AS TRAJECTORIES USING THE 00Z               
REGIONAL SOUNDINGS INDICATE CONTINUED MOIST AIR ADVECTION BELOW 850             
MB OVERNIGHT. WILL INCREASE LATE NIGHT SKY COVER. -GIH                          
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION...                                                             
 (ISSUED 243 PM EDT SUN JUL 23 2006)                                            
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...                                   
LATEST MSAS ANALYSIS SHOWING FOCUSED SURFACE CONVERGENCE FROM ABOUT             
ROCKY MOUNT/WILSON TO ROCKINGHAM...WITH THE BEST MOISTURE AND                   
INSTABILITY ALONG AND EAST OF THAT LINE.  A COUPLE OF SHOWERS OR                
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN PLACE IN THE FOOTHILLS...BUT VISIBLE                  
IMAGES SHOW WHAT APPEARS TO BE INCREASING STABILITY IN A CLEARING               
ZONE JUST WEST OF THE TRIAD.  OVERNIGHT...BOTH THE GFS AND THE NAM              
FORECAST INCREASING SUBSIDENCE AND DIMINISHING THETA-E AIR...WITH               
CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA LARGELY IN SUBSIDENCE BY 06Z.  WILL TAKE A               
LOOK AT THE LATEST RADAR IMAGES AND TRENDS JUST PRIOR TO GRIDDED AND            
DIGITAL FORECAST ISSUANCES...BUT AT THIS POINT FOR THE EVENING PLAN             
TO HAVE LITTLE OR NO POPS IN THE TRIAD TO SCATTERED CENTRAL AND                 
ESPECIALLY SOUTHEAST...DIMINISHING DURING THE EVENING WITH NO                   
SHOWERS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT.                                                     
LIKE WAS THE CASE ON THE 12Z SATURDAY NAM AND GFS...THE GFS                     
CONTINUES TO BE MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH THE NORTHWARD RETURN OF THE                
SURFACE TROUGH AND THE INCREASE IN MOISTURE FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON.               
LIKE WAS THE CASE YESTERDAY...LIKE THE NAM A LITTLE MORE GIVEN THE              
SHORTWAVE RIDGING ALOFT AND THE FACT THAT BOTH THE GFS AND THE NAM              
PROVIDE FOR 850MB RIDGING OVER MUCH OF THE AREA WELL INTO MONDAY                
AFTERNOON WITH THE BEST 850MB CONVERGENCE TOWARD THE SOUTH CAROLINA             
BORDER.  BOTH MODELS FORECAST A FAIRLY TIGHT GRADIENT OF 700MB AND              
850MB THETA-E SOUTH-TO-NORTH OVER CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA...AND                  
DESPITE THEIR MOISTURE DIFFERENCES...BOTH MODELS FOCUS THEIR BEST               
LIFT AND INSTABILITY IN THE SOUTH MONDAY AFTERNOON.  WITHOUT MUCH               
UPPER DIFFLUENCE...THE 850MB RIDGE NOSING OVER NORTHERN ZONES WELL              
INTO MONDAY AFTERNOON...AND ZERO QPF BY THE NAM...HAVE OPTED TO                 
CONTINUE CHANCES OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE SOUTH            
WITH NONE NORTH MONDAY AFTERNOON.                                               
MONDAY NIGHT...BOTH THE NAM AND THE GFS BRING AMPLE QPF OVER CENTRAL            
NORTH CAROLINA WITH GOOD UVV BY 06Z TUESDAY.  THE NAM IS ACTUALLY               
STRONGER WITH ITS COMBINATION OF LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND                      
UPPER-LEVEL DIVERGENCE...ALBEIT WEAK TO MODERATE AT BEST...WHILE                
BOTH MODELS INCREASE PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES TO NEAR 2 INCHES AS              
THE SURFACE TROUGH MOVES NORTH.  CONSIDERED LIKELY POPS ESPECIALLY              
SOUTHEAST ZONES MONDAY NIGHT...BUT WOULD LIKE TO SEE MORE IN THE WAY            
OF MID-LEVEL SUPPORT IN TERMS OF A DECENT TROUGH OR SHORTWAVE                   
COMBINED WITH JET SUPPORT TO RAISE POPS THAT HIGH AT THIS TIME.  GFS            
HAS VERY WEAK LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE DESPITE THE PRESENCE OF THE                 
TROUGH...SO AT THIS POINT WILL MAINTAIN CHANCE POPS THOUGH IN SOME              
AREAS...ESPECIALLY EAST WHERE THE GREATER MOISTURE WILL BE...HIGH               
CHANCE POPS WILL BE FORECAST.                                                   
PREFER THE GFS ON TUESDAY...BELIVING ITS MOUNTAIN INFLUENCE ON                  
THE SURFACE PATTERN AND SHOWING MORE OF A NORTHEAST/SOUTHWEST                   
ORIENTATION OF THE SURFACE TROUGH VERSUS A WEST/EAST ORIENTATION                
ON THE NAM.  WITH THIS IN MIND...BETTER INSTABILITY AND LIFT FOCUS              
IN EASTERN ZONES AND ESSENTIALLY CHANCES FOR RAIN MONDAY NIGHT ARE              
MIRRORED TUESDAY.  CAPE ON THE GFS IS MAXIMIZED IN THE COASTAL PLAIN            
TUESDAY.  TUESDAY NIGHT...GOOD NVA OCCURS ON THE GFS OVER CENTRAL               
NORTH CAROLINA ALONG WITH A SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR MASS AND WEAK                    
SUBSIDENCE.  PLAN TO FOCUS ANY CHANCE FOR RAIN TUESDAY NIGHT IN THE             
EVENING.                                                                        
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD NEAR NORMAL...GENERALLY 85-90 FOR               
HIGHS AND MID 60S TO LOWER 70S FOR LOWS.  THANKS TO AKQ FOR                     
AFTERNOON COLLABORATION.  PLAN TO HAVE GRIDDED AND WORDED FORECASTS             
ISSUED BY 330 PM...IF NOT BEFORE.                                               
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...                                         
THERE IS BETTER CONSENSUS TODAY AMONG THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS IN                
MAINTAINING A WEAK MID AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS            
THROUGH THE PERIOD. DOWNSTAIRS...WESTWARD EXTENSION OF BERMUDA HIGH             
WILL PROVIDE WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS THROUGH THE BOUNDARY LAYER.              
DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION POSSIBLE EACH DAY...ENHANCED BY WEAK MID            
LEVEL IMPULSES THAT ARE BEYOND CURRENT MODEL RESOLUTION. SEABREEZE              
INTERACTION IS ALSO EXPECTED TO BE A FACTOR WITH PROLONGED PERIOD OF            
S/SW FLOW. SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD.                 
HIGHS 88 TO 93. LOWS 68 TO 73.                                                  
AVIATION...                                                                     
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE AND INTENSIFY SOME EAST AS              
THEY MOVE FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE                
EVENING HOURS. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TRANSVERSES THE AREA AND                      
WEAKENING SURFACE FRONT CURRENTLY BETWEEN THE TRIAD AND TRIANGLE                
CRAWLS SLOWLY SOUTHEAST. FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MORE THAN LIKELY                 
STALL OUT ALONG THE SANDHILLS OR COASTAL PLAIN OVERNIGHT BEFORE                 
FINALLY SHIFTING JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA MONDAY MORNING.                         
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATING DRIER AIR ALOFT BEGINNING TO ADVECT                
INTO WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE STATE...SCATTERING OUT CLOUD COVER.                
WILL CONTINUE THIS TREND THROUGH THE EVENING ACROSS THE NORTH                   
INCLUDING RDU AND RWI TAF SITES. MAYBE SOME MINOR MVFR FOG AROUND               
DAYBREAK...OTHERWISE NSW.                                                       
ACROSS THE SOUTH...SHORT TERM MODELS INDICATE MOISTURE WILL PERSIST             
ALONG STALLED BOUNDARY. MVFR CEILINGS AND FOG ARE POSSIBLE ALONG AND            
EAST THE BOUNDARY OVERNIGHT...LIFTING BY MID MORNING.                           
SMALL CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE SOUTH NEAR LINGERING                         
BOUNDARY...OTHERWISE SCATTERED TO BKN STRATOCU BY EARLY AFTERNOON               
WITH A LIGHT ESE BREEZE.                                                        
&&                                                                              
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
NONE.                                                                           
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHORT TERM...HARTFIELD                                                          
</PRE></TT></td>   nc                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC                                             
1055 AM EDT SUN JUL 23 2006                                                     
.SHORT TERM /REST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT/...                                      
MSAS SHOWS AXIS OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND CONVERGENCE TAKING SHAPE              
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PIEDMONT...ACROSS THE SANDHILLS INTO THE                    
COASTAL PLAIN...WITH LIFTED INDICES AROUND -3C. THIS COINCIDES                  
WITH THE RUC AND NAM FORECAST OF HIGHEST CONVERGENCE AND THETA-E                
AT 850MB AND 700MB...ALONG WITH CAPE OVER 2000J/KG AND LOWER                    
LIFTED INDICES...BY 21Z THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH-DETAIL LOOK AT RUC                 
AND NAM SURFACE FORECAST FOR LATE THIS AFTERNOON SUGGESTS A SURFACE             
TROUGH WILL FOCUS IN SOUTHERN AND EASTERN ZONES...AND WITH BETTER               
MOISTURE AND THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF A MID-LEVEL 45KT JET                  
JUST TO OUR NORTH...PRECIPITATION CHANCES LOOK BEST IN SOUTH AND                
SOUTHEAST ZONES THIS AFTERNOON. RUC MODEL SOUNDING TOWARD THE                   
TRIAD STILL HAS SOME INSTABILITY LATE THIS AFTERNOON ALTHOUGH                   
CAPPING IS FORECAST TO TAKE PLACE THERE BY 00Z OR SO. SEVERE                    
WEATHER POTENTIAL APPEARS TO BE HIGHEST IN CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA               
ALONG AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM ABOUT ALBEMARLE TO WILSON...WHERE                
BETTER SUPPORT WILL LIE ALONG WITH BETTER CHANCES FOR INSOLATION                
NEAR WHAT MAY SET UP AS A DIFFERENTIAL HEATING BOUNDARY DUE TO                  
PERSISTENT CLOUDS.                                                              
RUC RELATIVE HUMIDITY FORECASTS AT VARIOUS LEVELS DO NOT SEEM                   
OPTIMISTIC FOR A LOT OF SUN...ALTHOUGH HEATING SHOULD BE MAXIMIZED              
SOUTHEAST. HAVE OPTED TO LEAVE TEMPERATURES ABOUT AS IS SOUTHERN                
ZONES...ACTUALLY LOWERING THEM A DEGREE OR TWO TOWARD THE                       
NORTHWEST. IF THE OVERNIGHT WRF IS CORRECT...CHANCES FOR SHOWERS                
AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DIMINISH RAPIDLY TOWARD THE COAST EARLY                
THIS EVENING...WITH SMALL CHANCES LINGERING POSSIBLY A LITTLE                   
LONGER IN THE FAR SOUTHERNMOST ZONES. GRIDDED AND WORDED FORECASTS              
ALREADY ISSUED. THANKS TO RNK AND AKQ FOR MORNING COLLABORATION.                
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION...                                                             
 (ISSUED 638 AM EDT SUN JUL 23 2006)                                            
SHORT TERM /REST OF TODAY/...                                                   
QUICK UPDATE TO SIGNIFICANTLY LOWER POPS AND REMOVE MENTION OF                  
THUNDER THIS MORNING ACROSS THE AREA AS PRECIP HAS WEAKENED AND                 
DISSIPATED OR MOVED NORTH OF THE CWA. FORECAST FOR THE REMAINDER                
OF THE DAY APPEARS ON TRACK WITH SFC FRONT AND POTENT UPPER TROF                
POISED TO AFFECT THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. -VINCENT                              
PREV DISCUSSION...                                                              
 (ISSUED 245 AM EDT SUN JUL 23 2006)                                            
SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...                                      
MANUAL SFC ANALYSIS EARLY...EARLY THIS MORNING SHOWS AN UNUSUAL JULY            
COLD FRONT ALONG THE APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS STRETCHING FROM ALABAMA              
NORTHEAST INTO NJ/NY. A TROF ASSOC/W A SFC LOW OVER NEW ENGLAND                 
STRETCHED SOUTH INTO CENTRAL VA AND THE NW PIEDMONT OF NC. DIFFUSE              
5-8F TEMP/DEWPOINT DROPS WERE OBSERVED BEHIND THE FRONT WEST OF THE             
MOUNTAINS. AN AREA OF SFC CONVERGENCE ASSOC/W A WIND SHIFT WAS                  
LOCATED AHEAD OF THE FRONT ALONG THE NC/SC/GA COASTAL PLAIN. A 100              
MILE WIDE AREA OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WAS LOCATED                
ALONG AND EAST OF THE SFC FRONT...INDICATING FORWARD SLOPING ASCENT.            
MOST IMPRESSIVE THIS MORNING IS THE STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROF                     
AFFECTING THE EASTERN HALF OF THE US! 250 MB WINDS ARE AROUND                   
100-110 KTS ALONG THE US/CA BORDER IN THE NORTHEAST AND UPPER                   
MIDWEST PER 00Z RAOBS...WITH MAX WINDS OF 50-70 KTS ACROSS THE                  
MID-ATLANTIC. WINDS WILL INCREASE ALOFT OVER THE AREA TODAY AS THE              
UPPER TROF PROGRESSES TOWARDS THE EAST DURING THE DAY. THE 250 MB               
TROF WILL COME CLOSE TO CENTRAL NC THIS AFTERNOON...PROGGED TO BE               
JUST NORTH OF THE AREA IN SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL VA. THE COMBINATION              
OF STRONG CYCLONIC CURVATURE AND A JET ENTRANCE WILL YIELD                      
COMPELLING UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT IN N/NE NC NORTHWARDS INTO VA.                   
MODEL THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES SUPPORT SHRA/TSRA ACTIVITY INTO THIS               
AFTERNOON AS THE SFC FRONT OVER THE MOUNTAINS SLOWLY CROSSES INTO               
CENTRAL/EASTERN NC. WITH DRIER SFC DEWPOINTS (MID 60S) AND A                    
DECENT AMOUNT OF DRY AIR ALOFT ENTERING THE AREA FROM WEST TO EAST              
BEHIND THE UPPER TROF...CHANCES FOR PRECIP WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH               
IN THE WEST AS THE EVENING PROGRESSES...SPREADING EAST TONIGHT AS               
THE SFC FRONT MAKES IT INTO EASTERN NC AND THE UPPER LEVEL TROF                 
BEGINS TO LIFT INTO THE NORTHEAST.                                              
AS FAR AS THE SEVERE THREAT IS CONCERNED THIS AFTERNOON...THERE IS A            
SLIGHT RISK FOR THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE CWA. AREA OF CONCERN FOR             
SEVERE CONVECTION TODAY WILL BE IN THE VICINITY OF THE SFC FRONT                
ALONG AND EAST OF A LINE FROM SOUTHERN PINES NORTH TO                           
RALEIGH...NORTH TO ROXBORO. WITHIN THIS AREA...THE BEST CHANCE                  
APPEARS TO BE IN NORTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE CWA...INCLUDING ROCKY                
MOUNT...ROANOKE RAPIDS...LOUISBURG AND WARRENTON WHERE THE SFC FRONT            
AND UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS ARE MOST LIKELY TO COMBINE FORCES.                     
SOUTHEAST PORTIONS WILL HAVE STRONGER INSTABILITY...BUT WILL BE                 
FURTHER REMOVED FROM THE BEST DYNAMICS. PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT WILL              
BE DAMAGING DOWNBURST WINDS.                                                    
ON MONDAY THE GFS DEPICTS THE SFC FRONT HANGING UP ALONG THE CAROLINA           
COAST...THEN MOVING SLOWLY BACK TO THE NORTH AND MEANDERING OVER THE            
AREA ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THE NAM SHOWS THE SFC FRONT HANGING              
UP FURTHER TO THE SOUTH...STAYING SOUTH OF THE AREA THROUGH                     
WEDNESDAY. AT THIS POINT...WILL GO WITH A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THESE              
TWO SOLUTIONS AND CONTINUE ENHANCED DIURNAL POPS (30-40) ACROSS THE             
AREA ON MON-TUE-WED...WITH BEST CHANCES TO THE SOUTH. NEAR AVERAGE              
HIGH AND LOW TEMPS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS.                       
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...                                         
CENTRAL NC REMAINS ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE BERMUDA HIGH                 
DURING THIS TIME FRAME WITH LOW AMPLITUDE MERIDIONAL FLOW AND                   
SEVERAL UPPER LEVEL IMPULSES PROGGED TO CROSS THE AREA. MODEL                   
SOUNDINGS SHOW THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES BECOMING INCREASINGLY MORE                
MOIST IN THE EXTENDED. THESE FACTORS SUGGEST A CHANCE OF DIURNAL                
CONVECTION EACH DAY...BECOMING MORE LIKELY AND POSSIBLY EXTENDING               
INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS MODULATED BY UPPER LEVEL IMPULSES                   
CROSSING THE AREA. NEAR AVERAGE HIGH/LOW TEMPS EXPECTED AT THIS                 
POINT.                                                                          
AVIATION...                                                                     
AN UNUSUALLY LARGE AMPLITUDE TROUGH FOR JULY PUSHES A COLD FRONT                
SLOWLY ACROSS WESTERN SECTIONS EARLY THIS MORNING AND THROUGH                   
EASTERN SECTIONS BY MID AFTERNOON.  A BROAD BAND OF MVFR AND OCNL               
IFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED IN NMRS SHWRS AND ISOLTD TSTMS WITH              
AN AHEAD OF THE FRONT.  LOW LEVEL FLOW SHOULD TURN MORE NORTHERLY               
BEHIND THE FRONT AND BRING DRIER AIR WITH VFR CONDITIONS LATER THIS             
EVENING. DIMINISHING SURFACE WIND AND CLEARING SKIES WILL PROMPT                
AREAS OF FOG LATE TONIGHT. -RFG                                                 
&&                                                                              
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
NONE.                                                                           
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHORT TERM...DJF                                                                
</PRE></TT></td>   nc                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND                                         
830 PM CDT SUN JUL 23 2006                                                      
FORECAST CHALLENGE FOR UPDATE CONCERNS PCPN CHANCES AND AREAL                   
COVERAGE.                                                                       
NE-SW ORIENTED PREFRONTAL TROUGH HAS SHIFTED EAST OF FA WITH COOL               
FRONT ORIENTED E-W ALONG INTERNATIONAL BORDER. MAIN SHORTWAVE                   
ASSISTING IN STRONG/DEEP CONVECTION OVER MN ARROWHEAD AREA SHIFTING             
SE WITH SECONDARY IMPULSE WORKING ON WEAK CONVECTION IN SLIGHTLY                
UNSTABLE AIRMASS AHEAD OF COOL FRONT ALONG INTERNATIONAL BORDER. CAP            
APPEARS TO HOLDING AS CONVECTION HAS WEAKENED CONSIDERABLY AND NOW              
NEARLY NON-EXISTENT. CU FIELD ALSO WEAK MAINLY CONFINED ALONG COLD              
FRONT ENTERING NORTHERN FA. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED                    
WEAKENING CONVECTION OVER FAR NW ND PROPAGATING SE. WITH LOSS OF                
SURFACE HEATING AND NIL LOW LEVEL JET LOSING CONFIDENCE ON ANY                  
ADDITIONAL CONVECTION FOR THE FA OVERNIGHT. RUC WHICH IS HANDLING               
ABOVE FEATURES PRETTY WELL ALSO NOT SHOWING ANY ACTION OVERNIGHT. TO            
BE SAFE WILL MAINTAIN ISOLD MENTION OVER NORTHERN THIRD DROPPING                
POPS ELSEWHERE. COLUMN COOLS A LITTLE OVERNIGHT HOWEVER WARMER DAY              
SHOULD OFFSET RESULTING IN TEMPS SIMILAR TO THIS MORNING.                       
&&                                                                              
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
ND...NONE.                                                                      
MN...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
VOELKER                                                                         
</PRE></TT></td>   nd                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OHIO                                         
1027 AM EDT SUN JUL 23 2006                                                     
.SHORT TERM UPDATE (THIS AFTERNOON)...                                          
AREA OF SHOWERS MOVING OFF THE LAKE THIS MORNING INTO NE                        
OH...THEREFORE MAINTAINED CHC POPS ACROSS NE OH/NW PA ZONES INTO                
THIS AFTN. MOST SITES SHOWING VISBYS UP ABOVE 6SM AT THIS TIME SO               
REMOVED MENTION OF MORNING FOG.                                                 
CONCERN THROUGH AFTN WILL BE THE CHC OF SHRA OR TSTMS AS UPPER                  
TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH AREA.                                                     
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION(12Z-12Z)...                                                           
SOME STRATUS AND FOG...IFR OR LESS HAS DEVELOPED...THESE CONDITIONS             
SHOULD QUICKLY IMPROVE AFTER 13Z. THEY DEVELOPED ESPECIALLY IN THE              
EASTERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA BECAUSE OF ALL THE RAIN THAT               
FELL SATURDAY AND THEN THE SKIES CLEARED. THE NEXT QUESTION IS WILL             
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON. WRF/NAM...NGM...GFS AND RUC               
ALL INDICATE THAT WIDELY SCATTERED LOW TOP CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP              
BECAUSE OF THE STEEP LAPSE RATES AND MODERATE INSTABILITY. CAPE NOT             
EXCESSIVELY HIGH. CONVECTION TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE MID 70S...THIS             
SHOULD BE REACH BY NOON AND A SHORT WAVE ACCORDING TO THE RUC AND               
WRF/NAM SHOULD CROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON. CONVECTION               
COULD START QUICKLY. ANY SEVERE WEATHER SHOULD BE ISOLATED BECAUSE              
OF THE LIMITED MOISTURE. THE ONLY FLY IN THE OINTMENT IS THAT HIGH              
PRESSURE IS BUILDING IN AT THE SURFACE THIS AM. HOWEVER...THE COLD              
AIR ALOFT AND SHORT WAVE SHOULD OVERCOME THIS. CLEARING SKIES                   
TONIGHT. SOME MOISTURE WILL STILL BE AROUND FOR AREAS OF MVFR FOG.              
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)...                                      
SURFACE HIGH BUILDING SE TODAY BUT TROUGH ALOFT MOVG EAST AS WELL               
ACROSS E GRTLKS. COLDEST AIR ALOFT WILL BE OVER E GRTLKS FOR MUCH OF            
THE DAY. MODEL SOUNDINGS DO NOT SHOW A LOT OF CAPE (FOR MID SUMMER)             
BUT WET BULB ZERO PROGGED TO BE LOW...AROUND 9K WITH A CONVECTIVE               
TEMPS IN THE MID AND UPPER 70S AND THERE WAS QUITE A BIT OF ACTIVITY            
OVER NORTH AND CENTRAL LOWER MI WEST TO WISCONSIN ON SATURDAY.                  
BELIEVE THIS ACTIVITY WILL DEVELOP TODAY ACROSS NORTHERN OHIO AND               
NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA BUT COVERAGE WILL STILL BE IN THE 20-40%                 
RANGE AND WILL USE "CHANCE" IN FCST. COULD BE A BIT OF A LAKE SHADOW            
ALONG IMMEDIATE LAKESHORE WITH NNW BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW. ONE WOULD               
THINK THAT THERE SHOULD BE A BETTER CHANCE FOR POP UP STORMS OVER NE            
OH/NW PA WHERE COLDEST AIR ALOFT WILL BE PRESENT AND I THINK THAT               
WILL BE THE CASE BUT CAPE WILL BE A BIT HIGHER OVER NW OHIO WHERE               
TEMPS WILL SNEAK INTO LOWER 80S SO WILL PROB BE A FEW STORMS OVER NW            
OHIO AS WELL. WITH LOW FREEZING LEVEL AND SFC DELTA THETA-E -15 TO              
-20 WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR ISOLATED HAIL/GUSTY WINDS.                           
ANY ACTIVITY WILL DISSIPATE THIS EVENING. TROUGH ALOFT VERY                     
PROGRESSIVE ALTHOUGH SURFACE HIGH IS BROAD AND WILL LINGER ACROSS               
OHIO VALLEY MONDAY. SW RETURN FLOW WILL DEVELOP MONDAY AND TEMPS                
SHOULD REBOUND SEVERAL CATEGORIES ESPECIALLY NW OHIO ALTHOUGH                   
DEWPOINTS SHOULD REMAIN IN CHECK DURING THE DAY MONDAY (LOWER 60S).             
WARM FRONT WILL BE PASSING NORTH OF AREA BY MONDAY NIGHT AND TSTORMS            
SHOULD INITIALLY STAY NORTH OF THE AREA.                                        
BASED ON UPSTREAM TEMPS AND BOUNDARY LAYER THERMAL FIELDS THE GFS               
TEMP GUIDANCE MAY BE A DEGREE OR TWO TOO WARM TODAY MOST SITES AND              
PERHAPS AGAIN TOMORROW OVER EXTREME NE OH/NW PA OTHERWISE GFS                   
GUIDANCE TEMPS LOOK GOOD AND SIMILAR TOO OTHER TEMP GUIDANCE.                   
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM(TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...                                         
DID NOT CHANGE LONG TERM GRAPHICS/FCST BEYOND TUESDAY BUT DID UP THE            
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/STORMS ON TUESDAY TO 30 PERCENT MOST AREAS TO GET            
IT MENTIONED IN FCST. SEEMS LIKELY THAT TSTORMS WILL OCCUR ACROSS               
NORTHERN GREAT LAKES AND SW ONTARIO AND OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES COULD GET            
DRAWN SOUTH FAR ENOUGH TO DEVELOP NEW STORMS SOUTH OF LAKE ERIE ON              
TUESDAY...AT LEAST A SMALL CHANCE...AS TEMPS AND DEWPOINTS WILL BE              
COMING UP AND INSTABILITY WILL INCREASE. BEST CHANCE FOR STORMS WILL            
PROBABLY OCCUR LATER IN THE WEEK AS TRUE COLD FRONT EVENTUALLY DROPS            
SOUTHEAST ACROSS GREAT LAKES. YESTERDAYS LONG TERM DISCUSSION                   
FOLLOWS...                                                                      
ALL 3 MODELS IN AGREEMENT WITH TREND OF UPPER LEVEL PATTERN.                    
AMPLIFIED RIDGE OVER WRN US AND DEEP TROUGH OVER ERN US BECOMES MORE            
ZONAL BY MID WEEK WITH A SERIES OF DEEP LOWS ROTATING ACROSS EXTREME            
NRN CANADA.  BY THE END OF THE WORK WEEK ANOTHER IMPULSE DROPS OUT              
OF CANADA HELPING DIG ANOTHER TROUGH (THOUGH NOT AS DEEP) OVER ERN              
US.  BASICALLY FROM THURSDAY ON SERIES OF WEAK SHORT WAVES MOVE                 
ACROSS THE AREA BRINING CHC POPS...WITH TEMPERATURES FAIRLY CLOSE TO            
NORMALS.                                                                        
&&                                                                              
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
.OH...NONE.                                                                     
.PA...NONE.                                                                     
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHORT TERM UPDATE...ABE                                                         
SHORT TERM...KOSARIK                                                            
LONG TERM...KOSARIK/DJB                                                         
AVIATION...KIELTYKA                                                             
</PRE></TT></td>   oh                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OHIO                                         
727 AM EDT SUN JUL 23 2006                                                      
.AVIATION(12Z-12Z)...                                                           
SOME STRATUS AND FOG...IFR OR LESS HAS DEVELOPED...THESE CONDITIONS             
SHOULD QUICKLY IMPROVE AFTER 13Z. THEY DEVELOPED ESPECIALLY IN THE              
EASTERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA BECAUSE OF ALL THE RAIN THAT               
FELL SATURDAY AND THEN THE SKIES CLEARED. THE NEXT QUESTION IS WILL             
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON. WRF/NAM...NGM...GFS AND RUC               
ALL INDICATE THAT WIDELY SCATTERED LOW TOP CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP              
BECAUSE OF THE STEEP LAPSE RATES AND MODERATE INSTABILITY. CAPE NOT             
EXCESSIVELY HIGH. CONVECTION TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE MID 70S...THIS             
SHOULD BE REACH BY NOON AND A SHORT WAVE ACCORDING TO THE RUC AND               
WRF/NAM SHOULD CROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON. CONVECTION               
COULD START QUICKLY. ANY SEVERE WEATHER SHOULD BE ISOLATED BECAUSE              
OF THE LIMITED MOISTURE. THE ONLY FLY IN THE OINTMENT IS THAT HIGH              
PRESSURE IS BUILDING IN AT THE SURFACE THIS AM. HOWEVER...THE COLD              
AIR ALOFT AND SHORT WAVE SHOULD OVERCOME THIS. CLEARING SKIES                   
TONIGHT. SOME MOISTURE WILL STILL BE AROUND FOR AREAS OF MVFR FOG.              
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)...                                      
SURFACE HIGH BUILDING SE TODAY BUT TROUGH ALOFT MOVG EAST AS WELL               
ACROSS E GRTLKS. COLDEST AIR ALOFT WILL BE OVER E GRTLKS FOR MUCH OF            
THE DAY. MODEL SOUNDINGS DO NOT SHOW A LOT OF CAPE (FOR MID SUMMER)             
BUT WET BULB ZERO PROGGED TO BE LOW...AROUND 9K WITH A CONVECTIVE               
TEMPS IN THE MID AND UPPER 70S AND THERE WAS QUITE A BIT OF ACTIVITY            
OVER NORTH AND CENTRAL LOWER MI WEST TO WISCONSIN ON SATURDAY.                  
BELIEVE THIS ACTIVITY WILL DEVELOP TODAY ACROSS NORTHERN OHIO AND               
NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA BUT COVERAGE WILL STILL BE IN THE 20-40%                 
RANGE AND WILL USE "CHANCE" IN FCST. COULD BE A BIT OF A LAKE SHADOW            
ALONG IMMEDIATE LAKESHORE WITH NNW BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW. ONE WOULD               
THINK THAT THERE SHOULD BE A BETTER CHANCE FOR POP UP STORMS OVER NE            
OH/NW PA WHERE COLDEST AIR ALOFT WILL BE PRESENT AND I THINK THAT               
WILL BE THE CASE BUT CAPE WILL BE A BIT HIGHER OVER NW OHIO WHERE               
TEMPS WILL SNEAK INTO LOWER 80S SO WILL PROB BE A FEW STORMS OVER NW            
OHIO AS WELL. WITH LOW FREEZING LEVEL AND SFC DELTA THETA-E -15 TO              
-20 WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR ISOLATED HAIL/GUSTY WINDS.                           
ANY ACTIVITY WILL DISSIPATE THIS EVENING. TROUGH ALOFT VERY                     
PROGRESSIVE ALTHOUGH SURFACE HIGH IS BROAD AND WILL LINGER ACROSS               
OHIO VALLEY MONDAY. SW RETURN FLOW WILL DEVELOP MONDAY AND TEMPS                
SHOULD REBOUND SEVERAL CATEGORIES ESPECIALLY NW OHIO ALTHOUGH                   
DEWPOINTS SHOULD REMAIN IN CHECK DURING THE DAY MONDAY (LOWER 60S).             
WARM FRONT WILL BE PASSING NORTH OF AREA BY MONDAY NIGHT AND TSTORMS            
SHOULD INITIALLY STAY NORTH OF THE AREA.                                        
BASED ON UPSTREAM TEMPS AND BOUNDARY LAYER THERMAL FIELDS THE GFS               
TEMP GUIDANCE MAY BE A DEGREE OR TWO TOO WARM TODAY MOST SITES AND              
PERHAPS AGAIN TOMORROW OVER EXTREME NE OH/NW PA OTHERWISE GFS                   
GUIDANCE TEMPS LOOK GOOD AND SIMILAR TOO OTHER TEMP GUIDANCE.                   
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM(TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...                                         
DID NOT CHANGE LONG TERM GRAPHICS/FCST BEYOND TUESDAY BUT DID UP THE            
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/STORMS ON TUESDAY TO 30 PERCENT MOST AREAS TO GET            
IT MENTIONED IN FCST. SEEMS LIKELY THAT TSTORMS WILL OCCUR ACROSS               
NORTHERN GREAT LAKES AND SW ONTARIO AND OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES COULD GET            
DRAWN SOUTH FAR ENOUGH TO DEVELOP NEW STORMS SOUTH OF LAKE ERIE ON              
TUESDAY...AT LEAST A SMALL CHANCE...AS TEMPS AND DEWPOINTS WILL BE              
COMING UP AND INSTABILITY WILL INCREASE. BEST CHANCE FOR STORMS WILL            
PROBABLY OCCUR LATER IN THE WEEK AS TRUE COLD FRONT EVENTUALLY DROPS            
SOUTHEAST ACROSS GREAT LAKES. YESTERDAYS LONG TERM DISCUSSION                   
FOLLOWS...                                                                      
ALL 3 MODELS IN AGREEMENT WITH TREND OF UPPER LEVEL PATTERN.                    
AMPLIFIED RIDGE OVER WRN US AND DEEP TROUGH OVER ERN US BECOMES MORE            
ZONAL BY MID WEEK WITH A SERIES OF DEEP LOWS ROTATING ACROSS EXTREME            
NRN CANADA.  BY THE END OF THE WORK WEEK ANOTHER IMPULSE DROPS OUT              
OF CANADA HELPING DIG ANOTHER TROUGH (THOUGH NOT AS DEEP) OVER ERN              
US.  BASICALLY FROM THURSDAY ON SERIES OF WEAK SHORT WAVES MOVE                 
ACROSS THE AREA BRINING CHC POPS...WITH TEMPERATURES FAIRLY CLOSE TO            
NORMALS.                                                                        
&&                                                                              
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
.OH...NONE.                                                                     
.PA...NONE.                                                                     
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHORT TERM...KOSARIK                                                            
LONG TERM...KOSARIK/DJB                                                         
AVIATION...KIELTYKA                                                             
</PRE></TT></td>   oh                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA                                          
213 PM EDT SUN JUL 23 2006                                                      
.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH MON)...                                            
BASED ON RECENT RADAR DATA AND RUC MODEL, A COLD TROUGH ALOFT MOVING            
ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES, EXPECT ISOLATED SHOWERS TO MOVE EWD             
ACROSS NW PENNSYLVANIA UNTIL SUNSET.                                            
FORECASTED PATCHY FOG MON MORNING, AS NAM FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW A             
STRONG SURFACE INVERSION MON MORNING; AND NAM AND GFS MOS VALUES SHOW           
LOW TEMPERATURES GOING NEAR OR BELOW CROSSOVER VALUES BASED ON CURRENT          
SURFACE DEW POINTS IN THE WELL MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER.                            
DAYTIME MON SHOULD BE MAINLY SUNNY AS ONLY SCATTERED DAYTIME CUMULUS            
EXPECTED UNDER SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE. HIGH TEMPS WILL BE CLOSE TO NAM           
AND GFS VALUES.                                                                 
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM (TUE THROUGH SUN)...                                                 
FOR MID WEEK, FRONT SAGS ACRS THE LAKES. 30% CHC TUE IN NRN ZONES; 20%          
S. ONLY 20% CHC TUE NIGHT, BEHIND H5 VORT, IF WE CAN BELIEVE THE TIMING         
OF GFS. 30% CHC WED AFTN IS MAINTAINED, AS ANOTHER SHORT WAVE MOVES E.          
AND THE SAME THING HAPPENS EARLY THU (RAIN ENDS) AND THU AFTN (DIURNAL          
TSTMS). ANOTHER SHORT WAVES COMES IN THU NIGHT, SO DROPS STAY ABV 30%,          
AND EVEN REACH 45% FRI, WHEN MORE VIGOROUS FRONT ENTIRELY ACROSS FCST           
AREA. BEHIND THE FRONT SAT, TEMPS AND DEWPTS GO DOWN A FEW DEGREES, BUT         
POPS STAYS 30-40%. CONTINUED TROFFINESS SAT MAY PROVIDE WEATHER MUCH            
LIKE THE TROFFINESS OF TODAY. POPS FALL INTO THE 20S% SUN, WHICH MIGHT          
BE THE DAY WITH THE LEAST PRECIP OF THIS NEXT ZONAL FLOW REGIME.                
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
PREVAILING VISIBILITY UNRESTRICTED (P6SM) INTO LATE TONIGHT WITH                
SCATTERED TO BROKEN CUMULUS CLOUDS (SCT-BKN030-040) UNTIL SUNSET.               
ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA.              
LATE TONIGHT, NAM MODEL RUN SOUNDINGS SHOW A STRONG SURFACE INVERSION           
FORMING. WITH CURRENT SURFACE DEW POINTS IN A WELL MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER         
INDICATING A CROSSOVER VALUE IN THE UPPER 50S AND MORNING LOW TEMPS             
GOING NEAR OR BELOW THAT VALUE, EXPECT PATCHY FOG WITH IFR VISIBILITIES         
(2SM BR) 08Z-12Z.                                                               
DURING MON, EXPECT DAYTIME CUMULUS TO REDEVELOP BUT WITH LESS COVERAGE          
THAN TODAY (SCT040).                                                            
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT TONIGHT, AND SOUTHWEST 5-8KTS MONDAY, AS SURFACE            
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY AND ADJOINING                  
APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS.                                                          
&&                                                                              
.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
MD...NONE.                                                                      
OH...NONE.                                                                      
PA...NONE.                                                                      
WV...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</PRE></TT></td>   pa                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX                                          
1137 AM CDT SUN JUL 23 2006                                                     
.AVIATION...                                                                    
SOME MID-HIGH CLOUDS MOVING IN FROM EAST. NOT TOO CONCERNED ABOUT               
THE SHOWERS THERE...WEAK FRONTOGENESIS AT 700MB HELPING THEM                    
GO...BUT TOPS ARE GENERALLY BELOW FL200 AND INSTABILITY IS MARGINAL.            
MODELS NOT HANDLING THIS AREA TOO WELL...WITH GFS TRYING TO MOVE IT             
EAST AND WEAKEN AND RUC MOVING IT SW AND WEAKEN. OVERNIGHT...NORTH              
FLOW WILL WEAKEN AND TURN BACK SOUTH BY MORNING. GFS INDICATING SEA             
BREEZE TYPE TSTMS TOMORROW FOR WACO AREA...BUT IT HAS BEEN OVERDOING            
THAT KIND OF PRECIP LATELY AND I WILL NOT BITE ON IT JUST YET.   84             
&&                                                                              
.UPDATE...                                                                      
1055 AM                                                                         
ISOLATED SHOWERS CONTINUE OVER THE NORTHEAST ZONES.  THESE ELEVATED             
SHOWERS ARE A RESULT OF WEAK LIFT AND INSTABILITY ASSOCIATED WITH A             
MID LEVEL TROUGH ROTATING THROUGH THAT REGION.  WE EXPECT THE                   
ACTIVITY TO SHIFT SOUTHWARD THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE TROUGH. WILL                
KEEP SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS MENTIONED IN THE NORTHEAST TO                 
ACCOUNT FOR LINGERING EARLY AFTERNOON ACTIVITY.                                 
AM A LITTLE CONCERNED ABOUT AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES BASED ON                
YESTERDAYS POST FRONTAL WARMUP.  EVEN THOUGH CURRENT TEMPERATURES               
ARE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE WHERE THEY WERE YESTERDAY...850 TEMPS ARE            
ABOUT 6 DEGREES COOLER THAN YESTERDAY.  HAVE DECIDED TO BUMP TEMPS              
UP A DEGREE OR TWO FROM THE CURRENT FORECASTED HIGHS DUE TO ABUNDANT            
SUN AND EXTREMELY DRY GROUND.                                                   
ONLY OTHER CHANGES WILL BE SOME MINOR TEMP/DEWPOINT AND CLOUD                   
TWEAKS...79                                                                     
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
555 AM CDT...                                                                   
WEAK COOL FRONT ALONG A KLFK-KSJT LINE AT 1030Z MOVING SLOWLY SOUTH.            
EXPECTED FRONT TO STALL BEFORE REACHING THE COAST AND THEN MOVE BACK            
NORTH LATE TONIGHT. SCT TSRA ARE EXPECTED SOUTHEAST OF A KPRX-KBBD              
LINE THROUGH TONIGHT.  HOWEVER...WITH THE FRONT SOUTH OF                        
KACT...DOUBT IF ANY WILL AFFECT KACT UNTIL MONDAY. SKIES SHOULD                 
REMAIN VFR THIS TAF CYCLE. WINDS NE LT 10KTS TODAY THEN TURNING TO              
THE SE LATE TONIGHT. 75                                                         
&&                                                                              
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
313 AM.                                                                         
COLD FRONT BROUGHT DRIER AND SOMEWHAT COOLER AIR....ALTHOUGH MID                
TO UPPER 90S IS MORE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. STILL...IT WILL              
BE A PLEASANT MORNING TODAY AND MONDAY BEFORE RETURN FLOW BRINGS                
WARMER TEMPS AND HIGHER DEW POINTS BACK TO THE REGION.                          
WITH THE FRONT LAYING CLOSE TO THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE                      
CWA...WE CAN EXPECT TO SEE SOME CONVECTION CONTINUE THIS MORNING                
AND REDEVELOP AGAIN LATER TODAY ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN PORTION.                
IN FACT...THIS AREA WILL LIKELY BE THE ONLY AREA TO SEE RAIN                    
DURING THE COMING WEEK. AFTER SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNS...A WEAK                   
UPPER LOW WITH TROPICAL CONNECTIONS WILL MAKE ITS WAY ONTO THE                  
UPPER TEXAS COAST. THIS WILL BRING A CHANCE OF RAIN INTO OUR                    
SOUTHEASTERN CWA DURING THE WEEK. SHOWERS MAY WORK THEIR WAY UP                 
TO SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE METROPLEX BUT DO NOT SEE MUCH OF THE                
AREA RECEIVING ANY RAIN...ESPECIALLY TO THE NORTH AND WEST.                     
THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN STATES WILL GRADUALLY FLATTEN AS               
THE WESTERLIES KEEP A TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN PART OF THE NATION.               
WHILE WE WILL BE NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES EARLY...WE WILL WARM UP               
TOWARD THE CENTURY MARK AS THE WEEK PROGRESSES.                                 
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  95  72  96  75 /  10   0  10  10                          
WACO, TX              96  71  95  73 /  20  10  10  10                          
PARIS, TX             92  68  94  71 /  10   0  10  10                          
DENTON, TX            94  71  96  74 /  10   0  10  10                          
MCKINNEY, TX          94  71  96  74 /  10   0  10  10                          
DALLAS, TX            95  73  96  75 /  10   0  10  10                          
TERRELL, TX           95  71  95  74 /  10  10  10  10                          
CORSICANA, TX         95  71  95  73 /  20  10  10  10                          
TEMPLE, TX            96  71  94  72 /  20  20  20  20                          
&&                                                                              
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
NONE.                                                                           
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
75/42                                                                           
</PRE></TT></td>   tx                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA                                           
1210 PM EDT SUN JUL 23 2006                                                     
.SHORT TERM /REST OF TONIGHT/...                                                
SENT ANOTHER UPDATE...FRONT PASSED THRU AKQ WITH BRIEF HVY SHWR                 
HERE AT THE OFFICE A FEW MINUTES AGO. NNE FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT                 
WILL LIMIT THUNDER ACTIVITY...BUT STRG UPR DIV AND DECENT MID LVL               
LAPSE RATES MAY SET OFF AN ISO TSTM THRU MID AFTN SO HAVE LEFT                  
SCHC THUNDER MENTION FOR CNTRL VA/MD. STILL HIGHEST CHC FOR                     
SHWRS/TSTMS ACRS FAR SE VA/NE NC.                                               
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION...                                                             
 (ISSUED 915 AM EDT SUN JUL 23 2006)                                            
SHORT TERM /REST OF TODAY/...                                                   
HAVE UPDATED ZONES BASED ON CURRENT RADAR AND SATL TRENDS. FRONT                
CURRENTLY ALIGNED FROM NEAR DCA TO FVX...A BIT FURTHER INTO OUR                 
CWA THAN PREV EXPECTED. DEW PTS INTO THE 60S AT CHO AND DAN. MCLDY              
SKIES PREVAIL FOR ALL BUT SE ZONES. FOR REMAINDER OF TODAY HAVE                 
DROPPED THE HVY RAIN WORDING FOR ALL EXCEPT SE ZONES (WHERE SOME                
SOME THIS MRNG WILL AID HTG/INSTABILITY)...AND HAVE DROPPED IT                  
ALTOGETHER FOR TONIGHT. HAVE ALSO SCALED BACK TO JUST CHC OR SCHC FOR           
THUNDER FOR THIS AFTN ACRS CNTRL VA AND MD. THE SE ZONES WILL ALSO              
REMAIN IN THE MORE SOUPY LWR TO MID 70 DEW PTS...AND THIS LINES UP              
WELL W/ LOCATION OF SLGT RSK FOR SVR THIS AFTN. TEMPS GNRLY LEFT                
AS IS.                                                                          
PREV DISCUSSION...                                                              
 (ISSUED 437 AM EDT SUN JUL 23 2006)                                            
SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT/...                                           
MODELS CONTINUE TO WREAK HAVOC ON SHORT TERM FORECAST. UTILIZING                
BLEND OF RUC/NAM FOR THIS AM. FRONT HAVING A SLOWER PROGRESSION OF              
ITS MOVEMENT SOUTHWARD AND WILL PLAY THE SLOWER ROLE OF PROGRESSION             
SOUTHWARD THAN SHORT RANGE GUIDANCE CURRENTLY PREDICTS. LAST                    
EVENINGS ACTIVITY PRODUCED A LARGE SWATH OF 1 TO 2 INCHES OF PRECIP             
OVER THE NWRN 2/3RDS WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS WHERE STORMS                   
CONTINUED TO MOVE OVER.                                                         
CURRENTLY QUASI STATIONARY FRONT SITUATED FROM NEW ENGL INTO GA.                
NUMEROUS SHRTWVS CONTINUE TO RIDE NORTHEASTWARD ALONG IT. THIS                  
EARLY AM ONE CURRENTLY SPREADING A BATCH OF PRECIP OVER NWRN 1/3RD              
OF CWA. WENT LOW POP OVER FAR SE WITH BETTER FORCING/DYNAMICS RIGHT             
ALONG FRONT. SHOULD SEE BREAKS IN CLOUD SHIELD OVER SERN THIRD OF               
CWA ADDING TO INSTABILITY TO DVLP. FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL SLOWLY PUSH              
ESE THIS AFTN-EVE AS H50 LOW OVER INDIANA ACTS AS A KICKER.                     
INTERESTING THAT THE GFS/NAM ALREADY TO FAR EAST WITH H50 LOW SHOWN             
WELL ON WV IMAGERY (GFS FURTHER OFF). UNTIL THIS SYSTEM MOVES INTO              
THE MID-ATL THERE WILL BE NO REASON FOR FRONT TO SAG FURTHER TO THE             
SE.                                                                             
SHRTWV THIS AFTN/EVE WILL MOVE NE ALONG FRONT FROM THE CAROLINAS                
INTO SE VA. THIS WILL ACT AS A BLOCKING MECHANISM...ALSO AIDING TO              
THE SLOWER TIMING OF A SOUTHEASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THE FRONT AND               
MAY ENHANCE PRECIP TO LINGER ALONG THE COAST ZONES. BUFKIT CLOUD                
VECTOR LAYER DOES NOT MOVE FROM NE TO W/NW TILL LATE EVE OVER NWRN              
THIRD OF CWA (CUTTING OFF PRECIP POTENTIAL). PRECIP MAY LINGER                  
HALFWAY THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT OVER SOUTHEASTERN THIRD SO KEPT LOW               
CHC POPS IN BEFORE FRONT FINALLY SAGS SOUTH OF CWA. THE SOUTHEASTERN            
THIRD OF THE CWA SHOULD SEE A GOOD DOSE OF MAIN...MUCH LIKE THE NW              
DID LAST EVENING. GENERALLY A SWATH OF 1 TO 2 INCHES WILL BE                    
POSSIBLE WITH LOCALLY HIGHER/LOWER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE. STORM                      
MOVEMENT WILL ONCE AGAIN CONTINUE TO BE MAINLY SW TO NE.                        
FAR SE IS IN OUTLOOK FOR SVR THREAT THIS AFTN/EVE. VAD WIND PROFILE             
ALREADY SHOWING LOW LVL JET ENHANCEMENT ALREADY IN PLACE OVER                   
REGION.  ENTRANCE RGN OF UPR LVL JET CURRENTLY OVER CNTRL KY WILL               
SLIDE SE AS H50 LOW MOVES INTO WV/PA. TIMING OF UPR LVL JET FORCING             
WILL BE CRITICAL TO THE CHC FOR SVR WX TO DVLP OVER FAR SE CWA LATER            
TODAY (MAINLY TWDS EVE). MAIN THREAT WILL BE FOR DAMAGING WINDS.                
THINKING BEST CHANCES FOR SVR WX THREAT WILL BE OVER THE                        
CAROLINAS. IF CONVECTION KICKS UP BY LATE MORNING OVER SC THIS MAY              
INHIBIT WIDESPREAD STRONG TO SVR STORM DVLPMNT FURTHER N INTO OUR               
NECK OF THE WOODS.                                                              
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...                                          
MON LOOKS DRY FOR THE REGION...BUT GFS HINTING AT ANOTHER SHRTWV                
MOVING OUT OF THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS INTO THE CAROLINAS ALONG THE               
SLOWLY SAGGING (OR STALLED) FRONT MON NIGHT INTO TUE. FOR NOW LEFT              
DRY ON MON AND WENT LOW POPS FOR TUE AS NAM NOT AS AGGRESSIVE WITH              
NORTHWARD PUSH OF SHRTWV.                                                       
FURTHER OUT COMPLICATED WITH SHRTWVS RIDING ALONG NRN PERIPHERY OF              
RIDGE THAT WILL BE SITUATED OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CONUS. UPR             
LVL JET STREAKS WILL PUSH OUT OF CENTRAL CANADA INTO THE MISSISSIPPI            
VLY AIDING TO TROF ENHANCEMENT OVER THE EASTERN CONUS AT TIMES. TOO             
EARLY TO TIME/PINPOINT PRECIP CHCS MID/LATE WK...BUT MAINLY ANY                 
ACTIVITY LIKELY WOULD BE LATE DAY.                                              
AVIATION...                                                                     
SCT MVFR...ISLD IFR CONDITIONS CURRENTLY BEING OBSERVED EARLY THIS              
MORNING WILL CONTINUE PERIODICALLY THROUGH THE DAY AS ADDITIONAL                
SHOWERS AND TSTMS FROM ALONG AND E-SE OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY.                  
ANTICIPATE GRADUALLY CLEARING TONIGHT FROM N-S...HOWEVER SINCE                  
GROUND WILL BE RELATIVELY MOIST GIVEN VERY LITTLE MIXING/DRYING                 
TODAY...WOULD EXPECT AREAS OF FOG (MVFR/IFR VSBYS) TO DEVELOP.                  
MARINE...                                                                       
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES OVER CHES BAY AND CURRITUCK SOUND WILL BE                
ENDING WITHIN A FEW HOURS...AS THE SW LOW LEVEL JET (35-40 KTS AT               
2-3 KFT) SHIFTS OFF TO THE EAST. OVER THE COASTAL WATERS WILL                   
MAINTAIN THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH NOON...AS THE FLOW BECOMES            
MORE OFFSHORE AND SEAS BEGIN TO TAPER BELOW SCA CRITERIA.                       
&&                                                                              
.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
MD...NONE.                                                                      
NC...NONE.                                                                      
VA...NONE.                                                                      
MARINE...NONE.                                                                  
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHORT TERM...BROWN                                                              
</PRE></TT></td>   va                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA                                           
915 AM EDT SUN JUL 23 2006                                                      
.SHORT TERM /REST OF TODAY/...                                                  
HAVE UPDATED ZONES BASED ON CURRENT RADAR AND SATL TRENDS. FRONT                
CURRENTLY ALIGNED FROM NEAR DCA TO FVX...A BIT FURTHER INTO OUR                 
CWA THAN PREV EXPECTED. DEW PTS INTO THE 60S AT CHO AND DAN. MCLDY              
SKIES PREVAIL FOR ALL BUT SE ZONES. FOR REMAINDER OF TODAY HAVE                 
DROPPED THE HVY RAIN WORDING FOR ALL EXCEPT SE ZONES (WHERE SOME                
SOME THIS MRNG WILL AID HTG/INSTABILITY)...AND HAVE DROPPED IT                  
ALTOGETHER FOR TONIGHT. HAVE ALSO SCALED BACK TO JUST CHC OR SCHC FOR           
THUNDER FOR THIS AFTN ACRS CNTRL VA AND MD. THE SE ZONES WILL ALSO              
REMAIN IN THE MORE SOUPY LWR TO MID 70 DEW PTS...AND THIS LINES UP              
WELL W/ LOCATION OF SLGT RSK FOR SVR THIS AFTN. TEMPS GNRLY LEFT                
AS IS.                                                                          
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION...                                                             
 (ISSUED 437 AM EDT SUN JUL 23 2006)                                            
SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT/...                                           
MODELS CONTINUE TO WREAK HAVOC ON SHORT TERM FORECAST. UTILIZING                
BLEND OF RUC/NAM FOR THIS AM. FRONT HAVING A SLOWER PROGRESSION OF              
ITS MOVEMENT SOUTHWARD AND WILL PLAY THE SLOWER ROLE OF PROGRESSION             
SOUTHWARD THAN SHORT RANGE GUIDANCE CURRENTLY PREDICTS. LAST                    
EVENINGS ACTIVITY PRODUCED A LARGE SWATH OF 1 TO 2 INCHES OF PRECIP             
OVER THE NWRN 2/3RDS WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS WHERE STORMS                   
CONTINUED TO MOVE OVER.                                                         
CURRENTLY QUASI STATIONARY FRONT SITUATED FROM NEW ENGL INTO GA.                
NUMEROUS SHRTWVS CONTINUE TO RIDE NORTHEASTWARD ALONG IT. THIS                  
EARLY AM ONE CURRENTLY SPREADING A BATCH OF PRECIP OVER NWRN 1/3RD              
OF CWA. WENT LOW POP OVER FAR SE WITH BETTER FORCING/DYNAMICS RIGHT             
ALONG FRONT. SHOULD SEE BREAKS IN CLOUD SHIELD OVER SERN THIRD OF               
CWA ADDING TO INSTABILITY TO DVLP. FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL SLOWLY PUSH              
ESE THIS AFTN-EVE AS H50 LOW OVER INDIANA ACTS AS A KICKER.                     
INTERESTING THAT THE GFS/NAM ALREADY TO FAR EAST WITH H50 LOW SHOWN             
WELL ON WV IMAGERY (GFS FURTHER OFF). UNTIL THIS SYSTEM MOVES INTO              
THE MID-ATL THERE WILL BE NO REASON FOR FRONT TO SAG FURTHER TO THE             
SE.                                                                             
SHRTWV THIS AFTN/EVE WILL MOVE NE ALONG FRONT FROM THE CAROLINAS                
INTO SE VA. THIS WILL ACT AS A BLOCKING MECHANISM...ALSO AIDING TO              
THE SLOWER TIMING OF A SOUTHEASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THE FRONT AND               
MAY ENHANCE PRECIP TO LINGER ALONG THE COAST ZONES. BUFKIT CLOUD                
VECTOR LAYER DOES NOT MOVE FROM NE TO W/NW TILL LATE EVE OVER NWRN              
THIRD OF CWA (CUTTING OFF PRECIP POTENTIAL). PRECIP MAY LINGER                  
HALFWAY THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT OVER SOUTHEASTERN THIRD SO KEPT LOW               
CHC POPS IN BEFORE FRONT FINALLY SAGS SOUTH OF CWA. THE SOUTHEASTERN            
THIRD OF THE CWA SHOULD SEE A GOOD DOSE OF MAIN...MUCH LIKE THE NW              
DID LAST EVENING. GENERALLY A SWATH OF 1 TO 2 INCHES WILL BE                    
POSSIBLE WITH LOCALLY HIGHER/LOWER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE. STORM                      
MOVEMENT WILL ONCE AGAIN CONTINUE TO BE MAINLY SW TO NE.                        
FAR SE IS IN OUTLOOK FOR SVR THREAT THIS AFTN/EVE. VAD WIND PROFILE             
ALREADY SHOWING LOW LVL JET ENHANCEMENT ALREADY IN PLACE OVER                   
REGION.  ENTRANCE RGN OF UPR LVL JET CURRENTLY OVER CNTRL KY WILL               
SLIDE SE AS H50 LOW MOVES INTO WV/PA. TIMING OF UPR LVL JET FORCING             
WILL BE CRITICAL TO THE CHC FOR SVR WX TO DVLP OVER FAR SE CWA LATER            
TODAY (MAINLY TWDS EVE). MAIN THREAT WILL BE FOR DAMAGING WINDS.                
THINKING BEST CHANCES FOR SVR WX THREAT WILL BE OVER THE                        
CAROLINAS. IF CONVECTION KICKS UP BY LATE MORNING OVER SC THIS MAY              
INHIBIT WIDESPREAD STRONG TO SVR STORM DVLPMNT FURTHER N INTO OUR               
NECK OF THE WOODS.                                                              
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...                                          
MON LOOKS DRY FOR THE REGION...BUT GFS HINTING AT ANOTHER SHRTWV                
MOVING OUT OF THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS INTO THE CAROLINAS ALONG THE               
SLOWLY SAGGING (OR STALLED) FRONT MON NIGHT INTO TUE. FOR NOW LEFT              
DRY ON MON AND WENT LOW POPS FOR TUE AS NAM NOT AS AGGRESSIVE WITH              
NORTHWARD PUSH OF SHRTWV.                                                       
FURTHER OUT COMPLICATED WITH SHRTWVS RIDING ALONG NRN PERIPHERY OF              
RIDGE THAT WILL BE SITUATED OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CONUS. UPR             
LVL JET STREAKS WILL PUSH OUT OF CENTRAL CANADA INTO THE MISSISSIPPI            
VLY AIDING TO TROF ENHANCEMENT OVER THE EASTERN CONUS AT TIMES. TOO             
EARLY TO TIME/PINPOINT PRECIP CHCS MID/LATE WK...BUT MAINLY ANY                 
ACTIVITY LIKELY WOULD BE LATE DAY.                                              
AVIATION...                                                                     
SCT MVFR...ISLD IFR CONDITIONS CURRENTLY BEING OBSERVED EARLY THIS              
MORNING WILL CONTINUE PERIODICALLY THROUGH THE DAY AS ADDITIONAL                
SHOWERS AND TSTMS FROM ALONG AND E-SE OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY.                  
ANTICIPATE GRADUALLY CLEARING TONIGHT FROM N-S...HOWEVER SINCE                  
GROUND WILL BE RELATIVELY MOIST GIVEN VERY LITTLE MIXING/DRYING                 
TODAY...WOULD EXPECT AREAS OF FOG (MVFR/IFR VSBYS) TO DEVELOP.                  
MARINE...                                                                       
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES OVER CHES BAY AND CURRITUCK SOUND WILL BE                
ENDING WITHIN A FEW HOURS...AS THE SW LOW LEVEL JET (35-40 KTS AT               
2-3 KFT) SHIFTS OFF TO THE EAST. OVER THE COASTAL WATERS WILL                   
MAINTAIN THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH NOON...AS THE FLOW BECOMES            
MORE OFFSHORE AND SEAS BEGIN TO TAPER BELOW SCA CRITERIA.                       
&&                                                                              
.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
MD...NONE.                                                                      
NC...NONE.                                                                      
VA...NONE.                                                                      
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ANZ650-652-654 UNTIL NOON SUNDAY.             
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHORT TERM UPDATE...BROWN                                                       
</PRE></TT></td>   va                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI                                           
300 PM CDT SUN JUL 23 2006                                                      
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT                                   
FORECAST CONCERNS CENTERED ON PRECIPITATION CHANCES THROUGH THE                 
PERIOD ALONG WITH TEMPERATURES. ALSO SEVERE WEATHER THREAT MONDAY A             
CONCERN.                                                                        
18Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM                 
CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA INTO NORTHWEST MINNESOTA. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY              
SHOWS A SHORTWAVE JUST SOUTH OF LAKE WINNIPEG MOVING SOUTHWARD IN               
THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. CONVECTION DEVELOPED EARLIER TODAY AHEAD              
OF THE FRONT AND SHORTWAVE AND IS NOW LOCATED FROM THE ARROWHEAD OF             
MINNESOTA INTO UPPER MICHIGAN. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS                  
CUMULUS FIELD DEVELOPING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.                    
12 23JUL06 IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH THE OVERALL PATTERN...BUT STILL             
SHOW DIFFERENCES IN THE DETAILS...ESPECIALLY WITH THE HANDLING OF               
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY ON MONDAY. NAM CONTINUES TO BE A LITTLE                    
FASTER THAN THE GFS AND IN FACT ITS TREND FROM ITS PREVIOUS RUNS                
HAVE BEEN FASTER AND WEAKER. HAVE USED A BEND OF THE GFS/NAM IN                 
HANDLING THE FRONTAL POSITION ON MONDAY.                                        
FOR TONIGHT...SHORTWAVE TO DIVE INTO THE AREA. THE NAM/GFS                      
AND RUC ALL SIMILAR IN DEVELOPING SOME QPF ACROSS THE AREA DURING               
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. WITH NAM INDICATING MOISTURE TRANSPORT ACROSS              
THE AREA TONIGHT AND COMBINED WITH SOME 850MB THETA E ADVECTION AND             
WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE TROUGH HAVE DECIDED TO ADD SOME LOW POPS            
ACROSS THE AREA. FEEL NAM BY BE A LITTLE TOO ROBUST WITH ITS QPF                
THOUGH. BUT CERTAINLY ENOUGH SIGNAL THERE TO WARRANT POPS.                      
FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO SAG INTO THE AREA ON MONDAY AS MAIN SHORTWAVE               
ROTATES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ONTARIO. SURFACE DEW POINTS IN THE LOWER            
TO MIDDLE 60S WILL CONTRIBUTE TO MLCAPES BETWEEN 1000 AND 2000                  
J/KG. HOWEVER...STRONG SHEAR TO REMAIN WELL NORTH OF THE AREA IN                
VICINITY OF SHORTWAVE...WITH MODELS ONLY SHOWING AROUND 20 TO 25                
KNOTS OF SHEAR IN THE LOWEST 3 KM OF THE ATMOSPHERE. WITH                       
CONVERGENCE ALONG BOUNDARY WILL SEE STRONGER CONVECTION IN THE                  
AFTERNOON.                                                                      
THE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT TIME FRAME WILL DOMINATED              
BY A NEARLY ZONAL FLOW. BIGGEST QUESTION WILL BE POSITIONING OF THE             
AFOREMENTIONED FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND TIMING OF IMPULSES IN THE FLOW.             
EXPECT BOUNDARY TO HANG AROUND THE AREA THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD.             
RATHER DIFFICULT TO ADD ANY DETAIL TO THE GRIDS SO NO CHANGES MADE AS           
LOW POPS THROUGH THIS TIME FRAME LOOKS GOOD.                                    
EXACT POSITION OF FRONT ON MONDAY WILL HAVE INFLUENCE ON                        
TEMPERATURES. WITH THE NAM BEING THE FASTEST...ITS CORRESPONDING                
TEMPERATURES ARE COOLER THAN THE GFS...THIS ESPECIALLY TRUE ACROSS              
OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES. NOTICED THAT MET NUMBERS ARE A LITTLE HIGHER             
THAN YESTERDAY BUT STILL NOT AS WARM AS THE MAV. WITH QUESTIONS                 
ABOUT FRONTAL POSITION/CONVECTION AND CLOUDS...HAVE USED A COMPROMISE           
OF GUIDANCE VALUES...WHICH IS IN LINE WITH THE CURRENT GRIDDED DATA             
BASE.                                                                           
.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY                                            
STILL SOME PROBLEMS WITH THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS WITH THE DAY TO DAY            
DETAILS. NCEP ENSEMBLE MEANS IS SHOWING A RATHER ZONAL FLOW PATTERN             
ACROSS MOST OF THE CONUS DURING THIS PERIOD. MODEL SOLUTIONS HAVE               
BEEN CONSISTENT LAST SEVERAL RUNS IN WANTING TO BUILD A RIDGE OUT               
IN THE PACIFIC BETWEEN ALASKA AND HAWAII. THIS IN TURN WOULD RESULT             
IN WEAK TROUGHING NEAR THE WEST COAST WITH WEAK RIDGING ACROSS THE              
CENTRAL CONUS. SEVERAL WAVES LOOK TO AFFECT THE AREA DURING THE                 
EARLY PART OF THE PERIOD PUSHING THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY THROUGH THE               
FORECAST AREA. THUS HAVE CONTINUED LOW POPS THURSDAY. STILL SOME                
QUESTION AS TO HOW FAR SOUTH THIS GETS PUSHED. HOWEVER...WITH                   
ENSEMBLES INDICATING RISING HEIGHTS INTO THE WEEKEND...EXPECT FRONT             
TO LAY UP SOMEWHERE SOUTH OF THE REGION WITH DRY WEATHER EXPECTED               
ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. IN ADDITION ALSO EXPECT              
RATHER WARM CONDITIONS...WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER            
80S.                                                                            
&&                                                                              
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
WI...NONE.                                                                      
MN...NONE.                                                                      
IA...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
RABERDING                                                                       
</PRE></TT></td>   wi                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA                                       
405 AM EDT MON JUL 24 2006                                                      
.SHORT TERM...                                                                  
TODAY AND TONIGHT.                                                              
RIDGE AXIS HAS NOW SHIFTED EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA...ALLOWING WAA             
TO BEGIN. 850 MB TEMPS WILL CLIMB INTO THE UPPER TEENS BY AFTERNOON.            
THIS COMBINED WITH WHAT SHOULD BE A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE...AT LEAST            
TO START WITH...WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO CLIMB BACK TO NORMAL OR EVEN                
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS TODAY. DEWPTS WILL ALSO BE ON THE                  
INCREASE WITH READINGS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S COMMON UPSTREAM.                   
FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAKING SLOW PROGRESS SOUTH FROM MINNESOTA AND LK               
SUPERIOR. LINE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS IN ADVANCE OF THIS DIVING SOUTH            
AND EAST INTO NORTHERN LWR MI...POSING NO CONCERN. A SMALL LINE OF              
SHOWERS AND STORMS HAS DEVELOPED OVER THE PAST HOUR EAST OF LACROSSE            
WISCONSIN. PROFILER DATA IS MISSING AT THIS TIME...BUT RUC SHOWS A              
30+KT LLJ FEEDING INTO THIS AREA WITH INCREASING LOW LEVEL THETA-E.             
TRENDS AND 850-300 MB THICKNESS PLOTS SHOW THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD ALSO            
DRIFT INTO MICHIGAN AND POSE NO THREAT. WILL NEED TO MONITOR TRENDS             
TO MAKE SURE BUT WILL MAINTAIN A DRY FORECAST TODAY. CU RULE SHOWS              
DIURNAL DEVELOPMENT ONCE AGAIN...BUT VALUES NOT AS HIGH AS                      
YESTERDAY. ALSO WITH INCREASING SFC WINDS AS GRADIENT INCREASES AND             
STRONGER WIND FLOW IS MIXED DOWN SOMEWHAT...LAKE BREEZE DEVELOPMENT             
UNLIKELY. SCT CU WILL DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN...BUT CU RULE SHOWING NOT              
AS MUCH COVERAGE AS TODAY.                                                      
FOCUS BEGINS TO TURN TONIGHT ONTO ABOVE MENTIONED FRONTAL BOUNDARY              
ACROSS LWR MI THAT WILL BE MAKING SLOW PROGRESS SOUTH. COMPLEX OF               
STORMS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND MOVE ALONG IT TONIGHT. TRACK OF THIS             
SHOULD REMAIN FAR ENOUGH NORTH TO ALLOW CONTINUED DRY FORECAST                  
TONIGHT. WITH CONTINUED WAA AND INCREASING MSTR LOWS WILL BE A GOOD             
10 DEGREE WARMER IN MANY LOCATIONS TONIGHT...DROPPING ONLY TO THE               
MID TO UPPER 60S.                                                               
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM...                                                                   
TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. NOT QUITE READY TO THROW LATEST NAM OUT                 
THE WINDOW. SHORTWAVE ENERGY OVER NORTHEAST MT SHOULD CONTINUE TO               
DAMPEN AS LONGWAVE TROF ACROSS EASTERN STATES DEAMPLIFIES AS NEW                
ENGLAND WAVE LIFTS NORTHEAST AND GREAT BASIN HIGH SLOWLY WEAKENS AND            
PUSHES SOUTH WHERE NAM HAS SHOWN RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY HERE. GFS               
AND NAM WITH HUGE DISPARITIES WITH REGARDS TO MOS POPS TUESDAY                  
NIGHT...CATAGORICAL VS. LT 20. TUE NIGHT MCS GENERATION PER GFS A               
BIT SUSPECT WITH CONVECTIVE SCALE FEEDBACK. PREFERENCE LIES TOWARD              
CONSISTENCY AND NAM AND AWAIT MORE STRONGER ENERGY OVER NORTHWEST               
TERRITORIES TO DIVE SOUTHEAST INTO CENTRAL CANADA/UPPER PLAINS BY               
MIDWEEK. DEEP MOIST TRANSPORT AHEAD OF SYSTEM WITH PWAT INCREASING              
TO NEAR 2 INCHES AND ARRIVAL OF BETTER KINEMATICS/INSTABILITY LATE              
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WITH POTENTIAL MCS DEVELOPMENT UPSTREAM TO MOVE             
ESE THROUGH SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES WED NIGHT....HAVE RAISED TSRA POPS             
TO HIGH CHANCE RANGE WED NIGHT AND THROUGH THU FOR POTENTIAL AIRMASS            
DESTABILIZATION AND LOW LEVEL VEERING AHEAD OF APPROACHING MID LEVEL            
WAVE THU. NO OTHER CHANGES REMAINDER OF FORECAST.                               
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
SFC RIDGE WILL CONTINUE ITS EASTWARD TRACK...BUT STILL ALLOW FOR VFR            
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD. SOME PASSING CU MAY DEVELOP ONCE                 
AGAIN AND ANY LAKE BREEZE DEVELOPMENT MAY NEED TO BE MONITORED FOR              
ISOL CONVECTION LIKE YESTERDAY. WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN FOCUS WITH               
SOME GUSTS IN THE 20 TO 25 KT RANGE POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTN AS                 
STRONG MIXING TAKES PLACE OF HIGHER WINDS IN LOW LEVELS. LATER                  
PERIODS OF THE TAF WILL SEE CLOUDS BEGIN TO STREAM SOUTH FROM                   
UPSTREAM CONVECTION...BUT STILL NO REAL IMPACT ON AVIATION INTERESTS.           
&&                                                                              
.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
IN...NONE.                                                                      
MI...NONE.                                                                      
OH...NONE.                                                                      
LM...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
AVIATION/SHORT TERM...FISHER                                                    
LONG TERM....MURPHY                                                             
</PRE></TT></td>   in                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
343 AM EDT MON JUL 24 2006                                                      
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
THE MAIN CONCERN WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR                
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AND TONIGHT.                                    
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC SHOWING A LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE                  
EASTERN AND SOUTHERN CONUS...A CLOSED LOW OVER NORTHEAST MANITOBA...            
AND LARGE RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES. A WEAK SHORTWAVE SLIDING             
DOWN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES RIDGE IS PASSING THROUGH THE WESTERN                
U.P. ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE IS MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHERN PART OF              
THE RIDGE AND IS OVER MONTANA. SURFACE ANALYSIS DEPICTS A LOW OVER              
NORTHERN ONTARIO IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW. A COLD                
FRONT DRAPED FROM THIS LOW IS OVER NORTHWEST MINNESOTA...NORTH                  
DAKOTA...AND NORTHEAST MONTANA THIS MORNING. A 1009MB HIGH IS                   
PUSHING THIS FRONTAL SYSTEM SOUTH.                                              
THE MID LEVEL LOW WILL SLIDE INTO NORTHERN ONTARIO. A SHORTWAVE                 
WRAPPING AROUND THE BASE OF THIS LOW WILL SWEEP INTO CENTRAL                    
ONTARIO. THE WEAK SHORTWAVE OVER WESTERN U.P. WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE             
REST OF THE FORECAST AREA BY 18Z. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL BE TO THE              
SOUTHWEST OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE COLD FRONT WILL REACH LAKE                  
SUPERIOR BY SUNRISE...AND WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA DURING THE DAY.            
THE HIGH OVER CANADA WILL START TO BUILD INTO NORTH DAKOTA.                     
850-500MB Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE WILL BE STRONGEST THIS MORNING OVER              
THE CENTRAL U.P. THIS WILL SLIDE INTO NORTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN BY                 
NOON. MUCAPE WILL BE AROUND 800J/KG OVER NORTHERN WISCONSIN WITH                
LOWER AMOUNTS MOVING THROUGH THE U.P. AN 850MB THETA-E RIDGE WILL               
EXTEND FROM NORTHERN WISCONSIN THROUGH CENTRAL U.P. BY SUNRISE AND              
THROUGH NORTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN BY LATE AFTERNOON. 300K ISENTROPIC               
ANALYSIS INDICATE STRONG ASCENT AHEAD OF THE FRONT OVER THE FORECAST            
AREA THIS MORNING. BY 18Z MOST OF THE ASCENT WILL BE GONE AS THE                
FRONT MOVES INTO NORTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN. THUS IT LOOKS AS IF SHOWERS            
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY OVER THE SOUTHERN U.P.            
AND OVER THE NORTHERN LAKE SUPERIOR TODAY. A SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF            
THE FRONT WILL HELP TO PUSH TEMPERATURES UP AS TEMPERATURES OVER                
WISCONSIN REMAINED IN THE LOW 70S THIS MORNING. THE TEMPERATURES                
WILL RISE INTO THE MID 80S BY LATE AFTERNOON AND START TO FALL OFF              
AFTER THE FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH.                                                 
ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL SWEEP INTO WESTERN U.P. TONIGHT. A                  
SURFACE LOW WILL DEVELOP OVER CENTRAL CANADA AND MOVE TO NORTHEAST              
MANITOBA. DRIER AIR WILL MOVE OVER THE NORTHERN PART OF THE FORECAST            
AREA. HIGHER SURFACE-500MB RH WILL BE OVER NORTHERN WISCONSIN...AND             
SOUTHERN U.P. MUCAPE ANALYSIS INDICATE THAT THERE WILL BE VALUES                
AROUND 1000J/KG ALONG THE WISCONSIN BORDER AND OVER THE SOUTHERN                
U.P. WILL LEAVE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR TONIGHT IN            
THOSE AREAS.                                                                    
THE WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL SLIDE INTO EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR ON TUESDAY.            
MEANWHILE...ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL DEVELOP OVER CENTRAL CANADA AND              
MOVE INTO ONTARIO JUST NORTHWEST OF LAKE SUPERIOR. A WEAK CLOSED LOW            
IS EXPECT TO DEVELOP OVER WISCONSIN. CAPE VALUES WILL REACH                     
1300-1700J/KG ACROSS THE U.P. JUST NORTHEAST OF THIS LOW. AN 850MB              
THETA-E RIDGE WILL BECOME FOCUSED ACROSS THE U.P. FROM WEST TO EAST             
AS WILL THE HIGHEST RH. A SURFACE LOW WILL DEVELOP OVER SOUTH                   
CENTRAL CANADA AND MOVE INTO NORTHERN MINNESOTA. ISENTROPIC ASCENT              
WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF THIS LOW. THUS WILL KEEP THUNDERSTORMS                   
POSSIBLE THROUGH TUESDAY.                                                       
AS THE WISCONSIN SHORTWAVE MOVES EAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN U.P.                  
TUESDAY NIGHT...ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE NORTH PART              
OF THE FORECAST AREA AS AN EVEN DEEPER SHORTWAVE WILL SWING INTO                
WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR. THE SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE OUT OF MINNESOTA               
INTO NORTHWEST WISCONSIN. THE MEAN SURFACE-500MB RH AND ASSOCIATED              
850MB THETA-E RIDGE WILL SLIDE INTO WESTERN U.P. AS ANOTHER LEAVES              
THE AREA. A SERIES OF WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL SLIDE THROUGH THE FORECAST            
AREA WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE...ISENTROPIC              
ASCENT...AND ACCOMPANYING THETA-E RIDGES SUGGEST A CHANCE OF                    
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THIS PERIOD. DRIER...MORE STABLE AIR MASS WILL            
DOMINATE THE FORECAST AREA ON FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY MORNING. A                   
SHORTWAVE WILL SLIDE INTO THE WISCONSIN AS AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE                
RIDGE STARTS TO SLIDE OFF TO THE EAST. A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND                  
THUNDERSTORMS WILL THUS RETURN SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY.               
&&                                                                              
.MQT...WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
DLG                                                                             
</PRE></TT></td>   mi                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI                                     
101 AM EDT MON JUL 24 2006                                                      
.AVIATION...                                                                    
THINNING CIRRUS SHIELD WILL BE THE ONLY STORY TONIGHT. ON                       
MONDAY...WINDS WILL FRESHEN QUICKLY DURING THE MORNING AS THE                   
PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT SURFACE                      
BOUNDARY.  VIGOROUS BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING WILL PROMOTE GUSTY                    
CONDITIONS FROM LATE MORNING ON.  NAM SOUNDINGS STILL SUPPORT                   
SAMPLING 30+KT FLOW...WHICH SHOULD REALIZE IN THE 20-25KT                       
NEIGHBORHOOD. LOW-LEVEL TROUGH AXIS WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE                    
FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD...HOWEVER CONVECTION SHOULD DEVELOP            
ACROSS NORTHERN/WESTERN LOWER DURING THE AFTERNOON AND START TO MAKE            
INROADS INTO THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY              
EVENING.  WILL CARRY PROB GROUP IN THE NORTHERN SITES FOR THUNDER IN            
THE POST 22Z TIME WINDOW...BUT WITH THE BOUNDARY HANGING OUT ACROSS             
NORTHERN LOWER WILL REFRAIN FROM THUNDER MENTION AT THE SOUTHERN                
SITES.                                                                          
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 404 PM EDT SUN JUL 23 2006                            
SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND MONDAY                                                 
12Z RAOBS/WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOW AN AMPLIFIED PATTERN WITH A STRONG              
RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS AND TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES. ONE               
SHORTWAVE EMBEDDED WITHIN THE LONGWAVE TROUGH WAS OVER LAKE                     
HURON...WHILE OTHERS WERE UPSTREAM NEAR THE APOSTLE ISLANDS AND LAKE            
WINNIPEG. SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS BROAD HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT             
LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY...WITH A WEAKNESS/TROUGH OVER CENTRAL LOWER               
MICHIGAN. VIS SATELLITE SHOWS A RATHER MEAGER CU FIELD...EXCEPT                 
ACROSS THE EASTERN CWA NEAR THE GREAT LAKES WHERE LAKE BREEZE                   
CONVERGENCE HAS LED TO MORE ROBUST CLOUDS AS WELL AS PRECIP.                    
REGIONAL RADARS SHOW CONVECTION HAS BEEN BUBBLING FROM NORTHEAST                
LOWER INTO THE THUMB...WITH A FEW STORMS REACHING A SIGNIFICANT                 
INTENSITY.                                                                      
DECENT INSTABILITY ACROSS SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN...GREAT IN THE THUMB               
WITH UP TO 1500J/KG CAPE. DEWPOINT ACROSS THE INTERIOR OF THE CWA               
HAVE MIXED DOWN INTO THE UPPER 40S/LOW 40S...WHICH HAS SEVERELY                 
LIMITED THE AVAILABLE ENERGY. THE ADDED MOISTURE FLUX IN THE ONSHORE            
FLOW FROM LAKE HURON HAS KEPT DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 50S/LOW 60S                
ACROSS THE THUMB. TAMDAR SOUNDINGS ALSO SHOW A DECENT MID-LEVEL                 
CAP...WHICH HAS LIMITED CONVECTION DEVELOP INLAND AND GROWTH NEAR               
THE LAKES...WITH ONLY A FEW STORMS BEING ABLE TO PUNCH THROUGH IT.              
THE SHORTWAVE OVER LAKE HURON WILL TRACK INTO SOUTHEAST ONTARIO THIS            
EVENING...SO WOULD ONLY EXPECT THE CAP TO STRENGTHEN FURTHER ACROSS             
THE WESTERN CWA. OTHER THAN THE THUMB...AM ALSO A LITTLE CONCERNED              
ABOUT THE BETTER CU FIELD ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN CWA FROM PORT                 
HURON TO MONROE. IT IS POSSIBLE WE COULD SEE SOME ADDITIONAL                    
DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE LAKE ST CLAIR/ERIE LAKE BREEZES...HOWEVER WITH            
THE STRONGER CAP IN PLACE WILL ONLY MENTION A SLIGHT CHANCE TSRA IN             
THE SOUTHEAST...AS OPPOSED TO SCATTERED/ISOLATED ACROSS THE THUMB.              
THE LAKE WINNIPEG SHORTWAVE WILL SWING EASTWARD TONIGHT...PROPELLING            
A WARM FRONT INTO THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES. GFS OVERDEVELOPS A                  
CONVECTIVE COMPLEX ALONG THIS FRONT...AND CONSEQUENTLY IS MUCH                  
SLOWER DROPPING THE BOUNDARY SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION.                       
NAM/NGM/DEVELOPMENTAL RUC SHOW A SIMILAR FASTER TIMING...WHICH IS               
PREFERRED. THE FRONT REMAINS WELL NORTH OF THE CWA TONIGHT...BUT                
THERE IS A INCREASE IN MID-LEVEL MOISTURE OVERNIGHT. SOMEWHAT                   
CONCERNED ABOUT THE NOCTURNAL THETA-E ADVECTION PICKING UP AROUND               
SUNRISE. HOWEVER THE AMOUNT OF CIRRUS IN ADDITION TO THE MID CLOUDS             
UPSTREAM SHOULD LIMIT THE DEGREE OF CLOUD-TOP COOLING OVERNIGHT.                
STILL A DECENT SHOT AT THUNDERSTORMS ON MONDAY...ESPECIALLY WITH THE            
INCREASE IN MONDAY AND MORE FOCUS SYNOPTIC LIFT/CONVERGENCE. WITH AN            
INCREASING WIND FIELD AND ANOTHER DAY OF BETTER INSTABILITY...THERE             
IS A POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER. MAINTAINED CHANCE WORDING...BUT              
TRIED TO ADD ADDITIONAL TIMING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. TEMPS AND                   
DEWPOINTS WILL BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN TODAY. ALSO BUMPED UP               
WIND SPEEDS WITH THE TIGHTENING SOUTHWESTERLY GRADIENT...WHICH WILL             
LEAD TO LOW 80S OUT ACROSS THE THUMB AS WELL AS INLAND.                         
LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY                                         
EXPECT CONVECTION ON MONDAY TO CONTINUE INTO MONDAY EVENING AND                 
DIMINISH OVERNIGHT. MODELS START TO DIFFER ON WEAR THE COLD FRONT               
WASHES OUT OVER LOWER MICHIGAN...WITH THE GFS...CANADIAN...EUROPEAN             
AND UKMET FARTHER NORTH THAN THE NAM AND LOCAL WRF. WHERE EVER THE              
FRONT WASHES OUT...THAT IS WHERE THE CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE            
HIGHER ON TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...AND FOR NOW WILL THE HIGHER               
CHANCE POPS FOR THE TRI CITIES AND THUMB REGION. THERE WILL BE                  
SURFACE AND MLCAPES OF AROUND 1500 TO 2000 J/KG...WEAK SURFACE                  
CONVERGENCE WITH THE WASHED OUT FRONT. THERE WILL BE SEVERAL WEAK               
IMPULSES EMBEDDED IN THE WNW FLOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND THE                  
REGION WILL BE IN AREA OF DEFORMATION. THIS WILL BE ENOUGH FOR                  
CHANCE POPS BOTH TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...AGAIN HIGHER TO THE                
NORTHERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA. SEVERE THREAT LOOKS LIMITED BY              
THE LACK OF A STRONG SYSTEM OR WIND FIELD. GUIDANCE TEMPS ARE IN                
GOOD AGREEMENT FOR THE LOWS AND DID NOT DIFFER. FOR TUESDAY                     
HOWEVER...ETA MOS WAS MUCH LOWER GIVEN THE FARTHER SOUTH FRONTAL                
POSITION WITH MORE CLOUDS AND PRECIP. WENT CLOSER TO THE OLD FWC                
WHICH WAS A COMPROMISE WITH A LEAN TOWARD THE WARMER MAV GUIDANCE.              
THE NEXT MOST SOLID SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN LAKES ON                
WEDNESDAY. BOTH THE NAM AND GFS HAVE SOME ADDITIONAL CONVECTIVE                 
ENERGY TO THE SOUTH OF THAT FOR WEDNESDAY. GIVEN THE INSTABILITY                
THAT WILL BE IN PLACE...WEDNESDAY COULD BE BEST CHANCE AND THE MOST             
WIDESPREAD COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORMS.                                           
IN THE WAKE OF THIS SHORTWAVE...THE BOUNDARY/COLD FRONT PUSHES JUST             
SOUTH OF THE STATE LEAVING THE REGION IN MODEST DRY AIR AND GENERAL             
SUBSIDENCE. THEREFORE...WILL TAKE OUT THE CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS               
AND GO WITH A DRY FORECAST.                                                     
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE AND STRONGER COLD FRONT ARE FORECAST TO MOVE INTO             
THE GREAT LAKES ON FRIDAY BY NEARLY ALL OF THE MODELS (EXCEPT THE               
LOCAL WRF...BUT 12Z RUN IS MOVING TOWARD THAT STRONGER FRIDAY COLD              
FRONT). WITH THE PROGGED STRENGTH AND INSTABILITY AHEAD OF THE COLD             
FRONT...THERE COULD BE SOME SEVERE WEATHER CHANCES ON FRIDAY. BEHIND            
THAT COLD FRONT...VERY DRY AND STABLE AIR IN PLACE FOR SATURDAY WITH            
ONLY SOME MID AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE FOR SUNDAY.                              
&&                                                                              
.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
MI...NONE.                                                                      
LAKE HURON...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...NEARSHORE WATERS FROM PORT AUSTIN TO        
   PORT HURON INCLUDING SAGINAW BAY...10 AM MONDAY TO 8 PM MONDAY.              
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.                                                           
MI WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.                                                  
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHORT TERM...BRAVENDER                                                          
LONG TERM....RBP                                                                
AVIATION...MANN                                                                 
YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE            
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).                                    
</PRE></TT></td>   mi                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC                                          
323 AM EDT MON JUL 24 2006                                                      
.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...SO FAR TONIGHT THE RADAR                
SCOPE HAS BEEN NEARLY CLEAR OF ACTIVITY EXCEPT FOR A STRONG                     
CLUSTER OF STORMS JUST EAST OF BULLS BAY OFF THE CHARLESTON COUNTY              
COAST. SFC OBS THIS MORNING SHOW THE BL FLOW PARALLEL TO THE COAST              
OR SLIGHTLY OFFSHORE...WHICH YIELDS SLIGHT DRY ADVECTION. THIS                  
WOULD EXPLAIN THE LACK OF SHOWERS OVER MOST OF THE WATERS OR ALONG              
OUR COAST. BOTH THE WRF AND RUC SHOW A VEERING TREND IN THE BL                  
WINDS...MAKING FOR AN EVEN MORE OFFSHORE FETCH AND SEVERELY LIMITING            
SHOWER DEVELOPMENT FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. A QUASI-STATIONARY           
FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS ACROSS UPSTATE SC AND CENTRAL NC. NOW                  
THAT THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH HAS PULLED OFF TO THE                          
NORTHEAST...THIS FRONT HAS MISSED ITS CHANCE OF PUSHING THROUGH                 
THE CWFA. THEREFORE...IT SHOULD GENERALLY REMAIN FAR ENOUGH                     
NORTHWEST OF OUR AREA TO REDUCE OR ELIMINATE ANY DIRECT EFFECTS. A              
WEAKER SHORTWAVE IS CURRENTLY DIGGING ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI              
VALLEY...WITH A LARGE SHIELD OF ASSOCIATED MID AND HIGH LEVEL                   
CLOUDINESS SEEN ON IR SATELLITE IMAGERY ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST U.S.               
THIS FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO DEAMPLIFY TODAY...LESSENING THE PVA IN              
OUR AREA. ALSO...THE SIGNIFICANT CLOUD SHIELD SHOULD TEND TO LIMIT              
INSOLATION AND INSTABILITY. HOWEVER...POCKETS OF STRONG HEATING WILL            
PROBABLY OCCUR...LIKELY RESULTING IN THE FIRST SHOWERS OR STORMS OF             
THE DAY. THE BEST CHANCE OF PARTIAL CLEARING LOOKS TO BE ACROSS                 
SOUTHEAST GEORGIA DUE TO SOME WEAK NVA AND SUBSIDENCE. BL MOISTURE              
SHOULD MIX OUT A LITTLE MORE IN THIS AREA AS WELL...DUE TO A                    
WESTERLY FLOW FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE AFTERNOON. WILL START THE               
DAY WITH SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS...THEN SLOWLY RAMP UP              
TO CHANCE FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE AFTERNOON AND LIKELY ALL                    
TERRESTRIAL LOCATIONS FOR THE LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING.            
MUCH LIKE YESTERDAY...SEVERE WX PARAMETERS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN               
MARGINAL DUE TO MEDIOCRE SFC HEATING AND NO REAL MID-LEVEL COLD                 
POOL. ALSO...H7 FLOW SHOULD ONLY BE ABOUT 10 KTS WHICH WILL LIMIT               
THE ABILITY OF STORMS TO ORGANIZE. THEREFORE...WILL NOT ISSUE A                 
SEVERE WX OUTLOOK OR INCLUDE SEVERE WORDING IN ZONES. LATEST DAY 1              
CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK FROM SPC ALSO CONFIRMS THIS ASSESSMENT...WITH NO             
RISK AREAS COVERING OUR CWA.                                                    
NUDGED HIGH TEMPS UP A FEW DEGREES ABOVE MOS ACROSS SOUTHEAST                   
GEORGIA TODAY. THE LAST TWO DAYS ALL MOS BULLETINS HAVE BEEN                    
SIGNIFICANTLY TOO LOW IN THIS AREA. WRF HINTS AT A PERIOD OF                    
WESTERLY SFC FLOW INTO THIS AREA WITH SOME DRIER AIR MIXING                     
DOWN...WHICH WHEN COMBINED WITH POCKETS OF SUN SHOULD YIELD TEMPS IN            
THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 90S.                                                        
CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO TAPER OFF PRETTY QUICKLY TONIGHT WITH THE             
LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. THEREFORE WENT WITH ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE               
FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. AS THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH FLATTENS OUT ON                
TUE...A NEARLY ZONAL UPPER FLOW IS EXPECTED. WITH WESTERLY FLOW IN              
MOST OF THE LOWER 500 MB...LAPSE RATES SHOULD REMAIN PRETTY WEAK.               
SOME WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY MAY AFFECT THE SC AREAS ASSUMING THE WRF             
PROG IS CORRECT. PLAN ON ONLY A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS ON TUE.            
TEMPS COULD AGAIN BE PRETTY WARM ACROSS OUR WRN ZONES DUE TO                    
CONSIDERABLE SUN AND WLY FLOW. HAVE BUMPED HIGHS A DEGREE OR TWO                
ABOVE MOS NUMBERS.                                                              
POPS DIMINISH EVEN FURTHER FOR WED DUE TO WEAK UPPER RIDGING OVER               
THE SOUTHEAST. WILL CARRY 30 POP OVER LAND AREAS WITH 20S OVER THE              
WATERS. TEMPS AGAIN A DEGREE OR TWO ABOVE NORMAL.                               
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...BERMUDA HIGH                      
PRESSURE LOOKS TO REBUILD ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLC AND MOST OF THE               
CWFA LATE IN THE WEEK. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN A RETURN TO TYPICAL                
DIURNAL CONVECTION AND TEMPS NEAR NORMAL.                                       
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WL PREVAIL THROUGH THE MRNG HRS...AFT                
WHICH NUMEROUS TSTMS ARE XPCTD TO DVLP ACROSS THE RGN. THE SEA                  
BREEZE WL MEANDER THROUGH THE KSAV AND KCHS TERMINALS BY MID AFTN               
AND WL PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR TSTM DVLPMNT SIMILAR TO WHAT TRANSPIRED              
YDA AFTN/EVNG. UNFORTUNATELY THE 00Z SHORT TERM MODEL GUIDANCE IS               
PROVING TO BE USELESS IN DETERMINING POSSIBLE TSTM IMPACTS AT                   
EITHER TERMINAL TDA. WE HAVE THEREFORE OPTED TO KEEP MENTION OF                 
TSTMS OUT OF THE TAFS FOR NOW AND JUST GO WITH MENTIONS OF CB/S                 
AND VCTS FOR NOW. HOPEFULLY THE 06Z AND 12Z MODEL RUNS WL CONVERGE              
ON A MORE CLR CUT CONVECTIVE SOLN LTR THIS MRNG.                                
&&                                                                              
.MARINE...A WELL DEFINED LAND BREEZE IS NOTED ALONG LWR SC COAST                
THIS MRNG...ROUGHLY FROM HUNTING ISLAND TO ABOUT 8 NM E OF CAPE                 
ROMAIN. AHEAD OF THE LAND BREEZE A STRONG NOCTURNAL SURGE IS IN                 
PROGRESS WITH WNDS SOLIDLY IN THE 15-20 KT RANGE...WHILE BEHIND IT              
WNDS HAVE BECOME WLY 10-15 KT. THE BNDRY HAS SHOWN LTL MOVEMENT OVR             
THE PAST FEW HRS PER MESONET AND CARO-COOP OBSERVATIONS SO XPCT                 
WINDY AND CHOPPY CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL ACROSS MOST OF THE MARINE                
AREA THROUGH SUNRISE...AFT WHICH WNDS WL QUICKLY DIMINISH. WNDS WL              
BACK MORE SLY THIS AFTN WITH THE DVLPMNT OF ANOTHER ROBUST SEA                  
BREEZE. FCST SOUNDINGS AND 24/00Z MMG GUIDANCE SUGGEST WNDS ALONG               
THE COAST AND IN THE CHARLESTON HARBOR WL NOT BE QUITE A STRONG AS              
PREVIOUS DAYS.                                                                  
ATLC HIGH PRES WL REMAIN ANCHORED WELL TO THE E OF THE RGN FOR THE              
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK WHICH WL KEEP A SLY FLOW REGIME IN PLACE.                 
DIURNAL SURGES CAN BE XPCTD THROUGH THE PERIOD.                                 
&&                                                                              
.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
GA...NONE.                                                                      
SC...NONE.                                                                      
MARINE...NONE.                                                                  
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
JRL/ST                                                                          
</PRE></TT></td>   sc                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA                                       
1210 PM EDT MON JUL 24 2006                                                     
.UPDATE...                                                                      
KIWX RADAR WAS SHOWING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACRS                 
SOUTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.  THESE SHOWERS AND                 
THUNDERSTORMS WERE IN ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPR LVL S/WV THAT STRETCHED            
FROM NRN LOWER MICHIGAN SOUTHWEST INTO SRN WISCONSIN.  THIS S/WV                
WILL SLOWLY MOVE SE INTO THE FCST AREA THROUGH THIS EVENING.  HAVE              
INTRODUCED A 30 PERCENT CHC OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACRS                   
SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN AND FAR NORTHWEST INDIANA TO ACCOUNT FOR               
THE POSSIBILITY OF PCPN IN THESE AREAS AS THEY WILL BE THE MOST                 
LIKELY REGION TO SEE SOME ACTIVITY THIS AFTN AND EVENING.  WILL                 
INTERROGATE MODEL DATA AND OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS TO SEE IF THE AREA              
HAS TO BE EXPANDED AND/OR EXTENDED IN TIME BEYOND THIS EVENING WITH             
THE AFTN FCST PACKAGE. CURRENT FCST TEMPS ARE STILL ON TRACK...SO NO            
CHANGES NEEDED.                                                                 
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION...                                                             
AVIATION...                                                                     
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL WITH CONVECTION EXPECTED TO REMAIN NORTH            
OF BOTH SITES. WINDS STILL EXPECTED TO PICK UP WITH A FEW GUSTS IN              
THE 20 TO 25 KT RANGE POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON. SKY COVER WILL             
BE LIMITED TO SOME DIURNAL CU AS WELL AS PASSING MID/HIGH CLOUDS. .             
SHORT TERM...                                                                   
TODAY AND TONIGHT.                                                              
RIDGE AXIS HAS NOW SHIFTED EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA...ALLOWING WAA             
TO BEGIN. 850 MB TEMPS WILL CLIMB INTO THE UPPER TEENS BY AFTERNOON.            
THIS COMBINED WITH WHAT SHOULD BE A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE...AT LEAST            
TO START WITH...WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO CLIMB BACK TO NORMAL OR EVEN                
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS TODAY. DEWPTS WILL ALSO BE ON THE                  
INCREASE WITH READINGS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S COMMON UPSTREAM.                   
FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAKING SLOW PROGRESS SOUTH FROM MINNESOTA AND LK               
SUPERIOR. LINE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS IN ADVANCE OF THIS DIVING SOUTH            
AND EAST INTO NORTHERN LWR MI...POSING NO CONCERN. A SMALL LINE OF              
SHOWERS AND STORMS HAS DEVELOPED OVER THE PAST HOUR EAST OF LACROSSE            
WISCONSIN. PROFILER DATA IS MISSING AT THIS TIME...BUT RUC SHOWS A              
30+KT LLJ FEEDING INTO THIS AREA WITH INCREASING LOW LEVEL THETA-E.             
TRENDS AND 850-300 MB THICKNESS PLOTS SHOW THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD ALSO            
DRIFT INTO MICHIGAN AND POSE NO THREAT. WILL NEED TO MONITOR TRENDS             
TO MAKE SURE BUT WILL MAINTAIN A DRY FORECAST TODAY. CU RULE SHOWS              
DIURNAL DEVELOPMENT ONCE AGAIN...BUT VALUES NOT AS HIGH AS                      
YESTERDAY. ALSO WITH INCREASING SFC WINDS AS GRADIENT INCREASES AND             
STRONGER WIND FLOW IS MIXED DOWN SOMEWHAT...LAKE BREEZE DEVELOPMENT             
UNLIKELY. SCT CU WILL DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN...BUT CU RULE SHOWING NOT              
AS MUCH COVERAGE AS TODAY.                                                      
FOCUS BEGINS TO TURN TONIGHT ONTO ABOVE MENTIONED FRONTAL BOUNDARY              
ACROSS LWR MI THAT WILL BE MAKING SLOW PROGRESS SOUTH. COMPLEX OF               
STORMS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND MOVE ALONG IT TONIGHT. TRACK OF THIS             
SHOULD REMAIN FAR ENOUGH NORTH TO ALLOW CONTINUED DRY FORECAST                  
TONIGHT. WITH CONTINUED WAA AND INCREASING MSTR LOWS WILL BE A GOOD             
10 DEGREE WARMER IN MANY LOCATIONS TONIGHT...DROPPING ONLY TO THE               
MID TO UPPER 60S.                                                               
LONG TERM...                                                                    
TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. NOT QUITE READY TO THROW LATEST NAM OUT                 
THE WINDOW. SHORTWAVE ENERGY OVER NORTHEAST MT SHOULD CONTINUE TO               
DAMPEN AS LONGWAVE TROF ACROSS EASTERN STATES DEAMPLIFIES AS NEW                
ENGLAND WAVE LIFTS NORTHEAST AND GREAT BASIN HIGH SLOWLY WEAKENS AND            
PUSHES SOUTH WHERE NAM HAS SHOWN RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY HERE. GFS               
AND NAM WITH HUGE DISPARITIES WITH REGARDS TO MOS POPS TUESDAY                  
NIGHT...CATEGORICAL VS. LT 20. TUE NIGHT MCS GENERATION PER GFS A               
BIT SUSPECT WITH CONVECTIVE SCALE FEEDBACK. PREFERENCE LIES TOWARD              
CONSISTENCY AND NAM AND AWAIT MORE STRONGER ENERGY OVER NORTHWEST               
TERRITORIES TO DIVE SOUTHEAST INTO CENTRAL CANADA/UPPER PLAINS BY               
MIDWEEK. DEEP MOIST TRANSPORT AHEAD OF SYSTEM WITH PWAT INCREASING              
TO NEAR 2 INCHES AND ARRIVAL OF BETTER KINEMATICS/INSTABILITY LATE              
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WITH POTENTIAL MCS DEVELOPMENT UPSTREAM TO MOVE             
ESE THROUGH SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES WED NIGHT....HAVE RAISED TSRA POPS             
TO HIGH CHANCE RANGE WED NIGHT AND THROUGH THU FOR POTENTIAL AIRMASS            
DESTABILIZATION AND LOW LEVEL VEERING AHEAD OF APPROACHING MID LEVEL            
WAVE THU. NO OTHER CHANGES REMAINDER OF FORECAST.                               
&&                                                                              
.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
IN...NONE.                                                                      
MI...NONE.                                                                      
OH...NONE.                                                                      
LM...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
UPDATE...HICKMAN                                                                
AVIATION/SHORT TERM...FISHER                                                    
LONG TERM....MURPHY                                                             
</PRE></TT></td>   in                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA                                       
725 AM EDT MON JUL 24 2006                                                      
.AVIATION...                                                                    
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL WITH CONVECTION EXPECTED TO REMAIN NORTH            
OF BOTH SITES. WINDS STILL EXPECTED TO PICK UP WITH A FEW GUSTS IN              
THE 20 TO 25 KT RANGE POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON. SKY COVER WILL             
BE LIMITED TO SOME DIURNAL CU AS WELL AS PASSING MID/HIGH CLOUDS.               
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION...                                                             
SHORT TERM...                                                                   
TODAY AND TONIGHT.                                                              
RIDGE AXIS HAS NOW SHIFTED EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA...ALLOWING WAA             
TO BEGIN. 850 MB TEMPS WILL CLIMB INTO THE UPPER TEENS BY AFTERNOON.            
THIS COMBINED WITH WHAT SHOULD BE A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE...AT LEAST            
TO START WITH...WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO CLIMB BACK TO NORMAL OR EVEN                
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS TODAY. DEWPTS WILL ALSO BE ON THE                  
INCREASE WITH READINGS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S COMMON UPSTREAM.                   
FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAKING SLOW PROGRESS SOUTH FROM MINNESOTA AND LK               
SUPERIOR. LINE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS IN ADVANCE OF THIS DIVING SOUTH            
AND EAST INTO NORTHERN LWR MI...POSING NO CONCERN. A SMALL LINE OF              
SHOWERS AND STORMS HAS DEVELOPED OVER THE PAST HOUR EAST OF LACROSSE            
WISCONSIN. PROFILER DATA IS MISSING AT THIS TIME...BUT RUC SHOWS A              
30+KT LLJ FEEDING INTO THIS AREA WITH INCREASING LOW LEVEL THETA-E.             
TRENDS AND 850-300 MB THICKNESS PLOTS SHOW THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD ALSO            
DRIFT INTO MICHIGAN AND POSE NO THREAT. WILL NEED TO MONITOR TRENDS             
TO MAKE SURE BUT WILL MAINTAIN A DRY FORECAST TODAY. CU RULE SHOWS              
DIURNAL DEVELOPMENT ONCE AGAIN...BUT VALUES NOT AS HIGH AS                      
YESTERDAY. ALSO WITH INCREASING SFC WINDS AS GRADIENT INCREASES AND             
STRONGER WIND FLOW IS MIXED DOWN SOMEWHAT...LAKE BREEZE DEVELOPMENT             
UNLIKELY. SCT CU WILL DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN...BUT CU RULE SHOWING NOT              
AS MUCH COVERAGE AS TODAY.                                                      
FOCUS BEGINS TO TURN TONIGHT ONTO ABOVE MENTIONED FRONTAL BOUNDARY              
ACROSS LWR MI THAT WILL BE MAKING SLOW PROGRESS SOUTH. COMPLEX OF               
STORMS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND MOVE ALONG IT TONIGHT. TRACK OF THIS             
SHOULD REMAIN FAR ENOUGH NORTH TO ALLOW CONTINUED DRY FORECAST                  
TONIGHT. WITH CONTINUED WAA AND INCREASING MSTR LOWS WILL BE A GOOD             
10 DEGREE WARMER IN MANY LOCATIONS TONIGHT...DROPPING ONLY TO THE               
MID TO UPPER 60S.                                                               
LONG TERM...                                                                    
TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. NOT QUITE READY TO THROW LATEST NAM OUT                 
THE WINDOW. SHORTWAVE ENERGY OVER NORTHEAST MT SHOULD CONTINUE TO               
DAMPEN AS LONGWAVE TROF ACROSS EASTERN STATES DEAMPLIFIES AS NEW                
ENGLAND WAVE LIFTS NORTHEAST AND GREAT BASIN HIGH SLOWLY WEAKENS AND            
PUSHES SOUTH WHERE NAM HAS SHOWN RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY HERE. GFS               
AND NAM WITH HUGE DISPARITIES WITH REGARDS TO MOS POPS TUESDAY                  
NIGHT...CATEGORICAL VS. LT 20. TUE NIGHT MCS GENERATION PER GFS A               
BIT SUSPECT WITH CONVECTIVE SCALE FEEDBACK. PREFERENCE LIES TOWARD              
CONSISTENCY AND NAM AND AWAIT MORE STRONGER ENERGY OVER NORTHWEST               
TERRITORIES TO DIVE SOUTHEAST INTO CENTRAL CANADA/UPPER PLAINS BY               
MIDWEEK. DEEP MOIST TRANSPORT AHEAD OF SYSTEM WITH PWAT INCREASING              
TO NEAR 2 INCHES AND ARRIVAL OF BETTER KINEMATICS/INSTABILITY LATE              
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WITH POTENTIAL MCS DEVELOPMENT UPSTREAM TO MOVE             
ESE THROUGH SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES WED NIGHT....HAVE RAISED TSRA POPS             
TO HIGH CHANCE RANGE WED NIGHT AND THROUGH THU FOR POTENTIAL AIRMASS            
DESTABILIZATION AND LOW LEVEL VEERING AHEAD OF APPROACHING MID LEVEL            
WAVE THU. NO OTHER CHANGES REMAINDER OF FORECAST.                               
&&                                                                              
.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
IN...NONE.                                                                      
MI...NONE.                                                                      
OH...NONE.                                                                      
LM...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
AVIATION/SHORT TERM...FISHER                                                    
LONG TERM....MURPHY                                                             
</PRE></TT></td>   in                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY                                             
1022 AM EDT MON JUL 24 2006                                                     
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
UPDATED THE FORECAST TO ADD ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER             
OUR SOUTHERN AND EASTERN CWA. RUC...WRF AND GFS ARE SHOWING AN AREA OF          
INCREASED MEAN RH AND OMEGA MOVING NORTHWARD FROM ERN TENNESSEE. THIS           
APPEARS TO BE ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK INVERTED SURFACE TROF OVER ERN             
TENNESSEE INDICATED ON THE 13Z SURFACE ANALYSIS. MORNING SOUNDINGS              
SHOW A WEAK MID LEVEL CAP IN PLACE...BUT MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW THIS              
CAP WEAKENING LATER THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE SRN AND SE PORTIONS OF              
THE CWA. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO AT LEAST ISOLATED CONVECTION FIRING.               
CONVECTIVE TEMPS SHOULD LOWER INTO THE UPPER 70S IN SOME AREAS...WITH           
MID 80S REMAINING IN THE CENTRAL AND NRN PORTION OF THE CWA WHERE THE           
CAP REMAINS A LITTLE STRONGER. ALSO LOWERED TEMPS A FEW                         
DEGREES...ESPECIALLY WHERE THE CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO FIRE. ALSO             
INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND MENTIONED PARTLY CLOUDY IN OUR ENTIRE                 
CWA...WITH CU DEVELOPING IN THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. UPDATED             
TEXT AND GRAPHICAL FORECASTS HAVE BEEN SENT.                                    
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION...                                                             
300 AM EDT MON JUL 24 2006                                                      
DISCUSSION...                                                                   
HIGH PRESSURE STILL FIRMLY IN CONTROL OF WEATHER ACROSS FORECAST                
AREA. 0Z 500 AND 850 HPA CHART ANALYSIS SHOW RIDGING ALSO IN PLACE              
AT MIDLEVELS...WITH LARGE AREA OF 500 HPA HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE                
OVER WESTERN UNITED STATES...WHICH SHOULD PUSH EASTERN TROUGH OUT OF            
THE STATES IN THE NEXT DAY OR SO. CURRENT WATER VAPOR AND IR                    
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATING THAT A LARGE AMOUNT OF DRY AIR IS                  
CURRENTLY IN PLACE ACROSS MUCH OF THE MIDWEST. WITH THIS IN                     
MIND...AND WITH NO STRONG SYSTEM TO PUSH HIGH PRESSURE OUT OF                   
AREA...ANTICIPATE A DRY FORECAST ONCE AGAIN THROUGH MIDWEEK THIS                
WEEK. WENT WITH GFS SOLUTION ONCE AGAIN FOR CONSISTENCY.                        
MADE A FEW MINOR TWEAKS TO CLOUD COVER FORECAST...GENERALLY                     
DECREASING CLOUD COVER THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WITH A GRADUAL INCREASE              
IN CLOUD COVER TO MOSTLY CLOUDY FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.              
MODELS INDICATING THAT STRONG LOW LEVEL JET WILL DEVELOP AND MOVE               
INTO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST WEDNESDAY NIGHT. AT THIS TIME                  
MODELS ARE NOT MOVING ANY ORGANIZED WEATHER SYSTEMS ACROSS THE                  
EASTER HALF OF THE UNITED STATES WEDNESDAY NIGHT...SO DECIDED TO                
REMOVE POPS FROM FORECAST THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY. IT APPEARS THAT               
THE INGREDIENTS FOR PRECIPITATION WONT FULLY COME TOGETHER UNTIL                
THURSDAY AFTERNOON.                                                             
WINDS WERE TWEAKED SLIGHTLY ALSO TO REFLECT CURRENT MODEL                       
OUTPUT...WITH A PERSISTENT SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WIND DIRECTION                    
ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME THROUGH DAY 3. DEWPOINTS LOOKED GOOD AND               
WERE UNCHANGED. ADJUSTMENTS WERE ALSO MADE TO WEATHER AND QPF GRIDS             
TO REFLECT CHANGES MADE TO POP GRIDS. STILL LEAVING IN MENTION OF               
VALLEY FOG FOR TONIGHT AND TUESDAY NIGHT.                                       
900 PM EDT SUN JUL 23 2006                                                      
HIGH PRESSURE IS FIRMLY IN CONTROL THIS EVENING WITH THE AFTERNOON CU           
FIELD NOW LARGELY DISSIPATED. SKIES SHOULD REMAIN CLEAR OVERNIGHT...            
EXCEPT WHERE FOG AND STRATUS FORM TOWARD DAWN. ONLY POINT OF                    
CONTENTION WITH THE INHERITED FORECAST IS MIN TEMPS TONIGHT. BELIEVE            
WE/LL BE ABLE TO DROP A LITTLE LOWER THAN OBSERVED LAST NIGHT WITH              
BETTER RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS...I.E. LESS CLOUD COVER AND               
SLIGHTLY LOWER SURFACE DEWPOINTS. FULLY EXPECT A FEW MID 50S IN THE             
MORE SHELTERED VALLEY LOCATIONS AND WILL ADJUST MIN TEMP GRID TO                
REFLECT THIS. MAJORITY OF LOCATIONS WILL SETTLE AROUND 60                       
HOWEVER...SO WILL ELECT NOT TO UPDATE THE ZONES AT THIS TIME.                   
327 PM EDT SUN JUL 23 2006                                                      
SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...                                   
CU THAT DEVELOPED THIS AFTERNOON WILL BEGIN TO DISSIPATE LATE THIS              
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. LOOKING OUTSIDE HERE AT JKL...THE CU HAS                 
ALREADY BEGUN TO SHOW LESS VERTICAL DEVELOPMENT THAN EARLIER IN THE             
AFTERNOON. WILL GO WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES OVERNIGHT WITH HIGH                  
PRESSURE OVER THE AREA. IT WILL BE COOLER THAN IT HAS BEEN FOR A                
WHILE WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S. DRY AIR                
MIXING DOWN THIS AFTERNOON HAS LEAD TO DEW POINTS IN THE UPPER 50S TO           
LOWER 60S. BELIEVE WITH GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING OVERNIGHT WE WILL BE           
ABLE TO REACH THESE TEMPS. WILL ALSO MENTION AREAS OF VALLEY FOG                
DEVELOPING TONIGHT INTO EARLY TOMORROW MORNING.                                 
FOR MONDAY NGM...WRF AND GFS ARE SHOWING HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED JUST            
EAST OF KENTUCKY. CONVECTIVE TEMPS ARE IN THE UPPER 80S...AND MODEL             
SOUNDINGS SHOW A GOOD MID LEVEL CAP. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR ONLY A FEW           
CU TO DEVELOP DURING THE DAY. MIXING DOWN 850 MB TEMPS...HIGHS SHOULD           
BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S. THIS MATCHES CLOSELY WITH MOS.                      
MONDAY NIGHT A SURFACE WAVE MOVES ACROSS GEORGIA TO SOUTH CAROLINA.             
THIS COULD SPREAD A FEW MORE CLOUDS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF              
OUR CWA...BUT NO PRECIP IS EXPECTED.                                            
TUESDAY THE SURFACE WAVE CONTINUES MOVING NE ALONG THE US COAST. A              
WEAK H5 TROF WILL ALSO SWING THROUGH THE AREA. GFS APPEARS A LITTLE             
STRONGER THAN THE OTHER MODELS WITH THE ASSOCIATED VORT MAX MOVING              
ACROSS THE AREA. I AM SIDING MORE WITH THE WRF ATTM. CONSIDERED                 
PUTTING IN A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR PRECIP...BUT FEEL THERE IS NOT QUITE             
ENOUGH SUPPORT FOR SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT OVER EASTERN              
KENTUCKY. MIXING DOWN 850 MB TEMPS...HIGHS SHOULD BE IN THE MID 80S             
TO AROUND 90.                                                                   
TUESDAY NIGHT THE UPPER TROUGH SHOULD BE EAST OF THE AREA. IT SHOULD            
REMAIN DRY.                                                                     
LOW TEMPS WILL SEE A WARMING TREND THROUGHOUT THE SHORT TERM PERIOD             
AS MORE MOISTURE BEGINS TO ADVECT IN. MY LOW TEMP FORECAST CAME OUT             
CLOSE TO MOS GUIDANCE.                                                          
LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...                                         
THE MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT. THE GENERAL PATTERN IS THE             
SAME...THE BIGGEST DIFFERENCES ARE IN THE TIMING AND RELATIVE                   
STRENGTH OF SHORT WAVES. THE ECMWF WAS A BIT STRONGER AND FASTER WITH           
A SHORT WAVE ON THURSDAY NIGHT. THE GFS WAS CONSIDERED THE MODEL OF             
THE DAY FOR THE EXTENDED FORECAST. THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE AREA               
WILL BE MOVING OFF TO THE NORTHEAST LEAVING A MORE ZONAL UPPER LEVEL            
FLOW PATTERN OVER THE AREA WITH TRANSITORY SHORT WAVES. AT THE                  
SURFACE...THE BERMUDA HIGH WILL BUILD BACK INTO THE SOUTHEAST ALLOW             
FOR A RETURN OF GULF MOISTURE. THIS WILL HILL TO SPARK SOME ISOLATED            
TO SCATTERED...MOSTLY AFTERNOON...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS              
THE REGION FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.                                       
THE TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITIES SHOULD BOTH RISE AS WARM MOIST GULF             
AIR WILL ONCE AGAIN BE MOVING INTO THE AREA. THE HIGH TEMPERATURES              
ARE EXPECTED TO STAY MOSTLY IN THE MID 80S THROUGH THE PERIOD. JUST             
TWEAKED THE MOS A DEGREE OR TWO. NO HUGE DIFFERENCES.                           
&&                                                                              
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                        
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
WJM                                                                             
</PRE></TT></td>   ky                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA                                          
1021 AM CDT MON JUL 24 2006                                                     
.UPDATE...                                                                      
OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAS BEGUN ITS SLOW RETURN NORTHWARD WITH                   
DEWPOINTS RETURNING TO THE LOWER 70S ACROSS DEEP EAST TEXAS.                    
CONVECTION THUS FAR HAS BEEN CONFINED TO SE TX/SW LA BUT ISOLATED               
CONVECTION HAS JUST RECENTLY DEVELOPED FURTHER NORTH INTO CLL AND               
PSN WITH THE RETURNING FRONT. CURRENT FCST HAS LOW POPS INTO N LA               
BY THIS AFTERNOON...THIS MAY BE A LITTLE TOO FAR NORTH AS PWATS                 
CURRENTLY RUNNING ONLY 1.25 ON THIS MORNINGS 12Z RAOB. WILL NOT                 
CHANGE AS THE MOISTURE IS RETURNING QUICKLY FROM THE SOUTH...BUT                
HAVE ADDED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FURTHER WEST TO ENCOMPASS THE I-20                
CORRIDOR OF NE TX AS THIS REGION IS BETTER CO-LOCATED WITH 850MB                
THETAE AXIS DEPICTED WELL BY LATEST RUC40 PROG. ALSO ADJUSTED                   
CLOUD COVER SOMEWHAT DOWN SOUTH AS MID AND HIGH CLOUD DECK QUICKLY              
RETURNING NORTHWARD. TEMPS IN GOOD SHAPE SO MADE NO CHANGES ATTM.               
UPDATE OUT SHORTLY...13.                                                        
&&                                                                              
.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
AR...NONE.                                                                      
LA...NONE.                                                                      
OK...NONE.                                                                      
TX...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
13                                                                              
</PRE></TT></td>   la                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
1110 AM EDT MON JUL 24 2006                                                     
.UPDATE...                                                                      
WEAK SHRTWV AND BAND OF 300K-305K ISENTROPIC LIFT THAT SUPPORTED                
AREA OF SHRA/TSRA OVER CNTRL UPR MI AND NRN LK MI HAS MOVED E OF UPR            
MI. HOWEVER ADDITIONAL SHRA AND WEAKER ISOLD TSRA HAD DEVELOPED                 
ALONG AND AHEAD OF A SFC FRONT/TROF FROM NRN LK SUPERIOR INTO W UPR             
MI AND NW WI.                                                                   
EXPECT THAT THE COMBINATION OF THE FRONT ALONG WITH CONTRIBUTIONS               
FROM LK BREEZE BOUNDARIES AND SFC HEATING WILL PROVIDE ADDITIONAL               
SUPPORT FOR SHRA/TSRA THIS AFTERNOON. SO...BEST CHANCES FOR TSTMS               
WILL BE MAINLY SOUTH OF A LINE FROM MQT-WATERSMEET LINE.                        
MODIFIED FCST SNDGS AND WITH TEMPS INTO THE MID 80S AND DEWPOINTS IN            
THE MID 60S GIVE SBCAPE VALUES BTWN 1500-2500 J/KG. 0-6KM WIND SHEAR            
VALUES AROUND 35 KT WILL BE ENOUGH TO AID STORM ORGANIZATION.                   
ALTHOUGH FREEZING LEVELS ARE FCST NEAR 14.5K FT...WET-BULB ZERO                 
VALUES NEAR 10.5K FT WILL BE MORE FAVORABLE FOR HAIL DEVELOPMENT. IN            
ADDITION...SFC-H7 THETA-E DIFFERENCE NEAR 30C WILL COULD ALSO                   
PROMOTE STRONG/SVR WINDS WITH ANY STRONGER STORMS THAT DEVELOP.                 
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED AT 343 AM EDT MON JUL 24 2006                         
THE MAIN CONCERN WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR                
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AND TONIGHT.                                    
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC SHOWING A LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE                  
EASTERN AND SOUTHERN CONUS...A CLOSED LOW OVER NORTHEAST MANITOBA...            
AND LARGE RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES. A WEAK SHORTWAVE SLIDING             
DOWN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES RIDGE IS PASSING THROUGH THE WESTERN                
U.P. ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE IS MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHERN PART OF              
THE RIDGE AND IS OVER MONTANA. SURFACE ANALYSIS DEPICTS A LOW OVER              
NORTHERN ONTARIO IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW. A COLD                
FRONT DRAPED FROM THIS LOW IS OVER NORTHWEST MINNESOTA...NORTH                  
DAKOTA...AND NORTHEAST MONTANA THIS MORNING. A 1009MB HIGH IS                   
PUSHING THIS FRONTAL SYSTEM SOUTH.                                              
THE MID LEVEL LOW WILL SLIDE INTO NORTHERN ONTARIO. A SHORTWAVE                 
WRAPPING AROUND THE BASE OF THIS LOW WILL SWEEP INTO CENTRAL                    
ONTARIO. THE WEAK SHORTWAVE OVER WESTERN U.P. WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE             
REST OF THE FORECAST AREA BY 18Z. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL BE TO THE              
SOUTHWEST OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE COLD FRONT WILL REACH LAKE                  
SUPERIOR BY SUNRISE...AND WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA DURING THE DAY.            
THE HIGH OVER CANADA WILL START TO BUILD INTO NORTH DAKOTA.                     
850-500MB Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE WILL BE STRONGEST THIS MORNING OVER              
THE CENTRAL U.P. THIS WILL SLIDE INTO NORTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN BY                 
NOON. MUCAPE WILL BE AROUND 800J/KG OVER NORTHERN WISCONSIN WITH                
LOWER AMOUNTS MOVING THROUGH THE U.P. AN 850MB THETA-E RIDGE WILL               
EXTEND FROM NORTHERN WISCONSIN THROUGH CENTRAL U.P. BY SUNRISE AND              
THROUGH NORTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN BY LATE AFTERNOON. 300K ISENTROPIC               
ANALYSIS INDICATE STRONG ASCENT AHEAD OF THE FRONT OVER THE FORECAST            
AREA THIS MORNING. BY 18Z MOST OF THE ASCENT WILL BE GONE AS THE                
FRONT MOVES INTO NORTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN. THUS IT LOOKS AS IF SHOWERS            
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY OVER THE SOUTHERN U.P.            
AND OVER THE NORTHERN LAKE SUPERIOR TODAY. A SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF            
THE FRONT WILL HELP TO PUSH TEMPERATURES UP AS TEMPERATURES OVER                
WISCONSIN REMAINED IN THE LOW 70S THIS MORNING. THE TEMPERATURES                
WILL RISE INTO THE MID 80S BY LATE AFTERNOON AND START TO FALL OFF              
AFTER THE FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH.                                                 
ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL SWEEP INTO WESTERN U.P. TONIGHT. A                  
SURFACE LOW WILL DEVELOP OVER CENTRAL CANADA AND MOVE TO NORTHEAST              
MANITOBA. DRIER AIR WILL MOVE OVER THE NORTHERN PART OF THE FORECAST            
AREA. HIGHER SURFACE-500MB RH WILL BE OVER NORTHERN WISCONSIN...AND             
SOUTHERN U.P. MUCAPE ANALYSIS INDICATE THAT THERE WILL BE VALUES                
AROUND 1000J/KG ALONG THE WISCONSIN BORDER AND OVER THE SOUTHERN                
U.P. WILL LEAVE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR TONIGHT IN            
THOSE AREAS.                                                                    
THE WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL SLIDE INTO EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR ON TUESDAY.            
MEANWHILE...ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL DEVELOP OVER CENTRAL CANADA AND              
MOVE INTO ONTARIO JUST NORTHWEST OF LAKE SUPERIOR. A WEAK CLOSED LOW            
IS EXPECT TO DEVELOP OVER WISCONSIN. CAPE VALUES WILL REACH                     
1300-1700J/KG ACROSS THE U.P. JUST NORTHEAST OF THIS LOW. AN 850MB              
THETA-E RIDGE WILL BECOME FOCUSED ACROSS THE U.P. FROM WEST TO EAST             
AS WILL THE HIGHEST RH. A SURFACE LOW WILL DEVELOP OVER SOUTH                   
CENTRAL CANADA AND MOVE INTO NORTHERN MINNESOTA. ISENTROPIC ASCENT              
WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF THIS LOW. THUS WILL KEEP THUNDERSTORMS                   
POSSIBLE THROUGH TUESDAY.                                                       
AS THE WISCONSIN SHORTWAVE MOVES EAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN U.P.                  
TUESDAY NIGHT...ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE NORTH PART              
OF THE FORECAST AREA AS AN EVEN DEEPER SHORTWAVE WILL SWING INTO                
WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR. THE SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE OUT OF MINNESOTA               
INTO NORTHWEST WISCONSIN. THE MEAN SURFACE-500MB RH AND ASSOCIATED              
850MB THETA-E RIDGE WILL SLIDE INTO WESTERN U.P. AS ANOTHER LEAVES              
THE AREA. A SERIES OF WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL SLIDE THROUGH THE FORECAST            
AREA WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE...ISENTROPIC              
ASCENT...AND ACCOMPANYING THETA-E RIDGES SUGGEST A CHANCE OF                    
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THIS PERIOD. DRIER...MORE STABLE AIR MASS WILL            
DOMINATE THE FORECAST AREA ON FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY MORNING. A                   
SHORTWAVE WILL SLIDE INTO THE WISCONSIN AS AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE                
RIDGE STARTS TO SLIDE OFF TO THE EAST. A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND                  
THUNDERSTORMS WILL THUS RETURN SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY.               
&&                                                                              
.MQT...WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
JLB(UPDATE)                                                                     
DLG(PREV DISC)                                                                  
</PRE></TT></td>   mi                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN                              
1019 AM CDT MON JUL 24 2006                                                     
.UPDATE...                                                                      
WITH SHORT WAVE DROPPING DOWN FROM EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA AND 12Z RUC             
SHOWING THETA E ADVECTION CONCENTRATING OVER EAST CENTRAL AND                   
SOUTHEAST MN...AND WESTERN WI FOR AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WILL UP               
POPS FOR THIS AREA. PLUME OF STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES                        
ADVECTING INTO THIS AREA AS WELL.                                               
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 402 AM CDT MON JUL 24 2006/                         
DISCUSSION...                                                                   
THUNDERSTORMS IN PROGRESS EARLY THIS MORNING JUST EAST OF THE CWA               
AHEAD OF A SURFACE TROF AND 1000-850MB THETA-E ADVECTION. ANOTHER               
AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NORTH OF THE CWA AHEAD OF AN                  
APPROACHING COOL FRONT.  SHORT TERM FORECAST RATHER PROBLEMATIC.                
ALTHOUGH THE COOL FRONT TO OUR NORTH WILL SETTLE INTO THE CWA                   
TODAY AND THEN TURN STATIONARY...AS A STRONG SHORT WAVE OVER THE                
UPPER GREAT LAKES MOVES EAST...DIFFERENCES ARE NOTED IN THE TIMING              
OF ADDITIONAL SHORT WAVES IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW INTO THURSDAY                   
BETWEEN THE NAM-WRF AND GFS. THIS PLAYS HAVOC WITH POTENTIAL                    
CONVECTIVE EVENTS. SOME SIMILARITY EXISTS BETWEEN THE TWO MODELS                
TODAY AND TONIGHT. BELIEVE CONVECTION WILL REDEVELOP THIS                       
AFTERNOON OVER CENTRAL MN AND WEST CENTRAL WI AND DROP SE DURING                
THE EVENING. RATHER STRONG INSTABILITY DEVELOPS AHEAD OF THE FRONT              
THIS AFTERNOON ALONG WITH CONVERGENCE NOTED ALONG THE 850MB TROF                
AXIS. SMALL CONVECTIVE CHANCES ON TUESDAY WITH THE STATIONARY                   
FRONT MEANDERING ACROSS THE REGION. TUESDAY NIGHT LOOKING                       
INTERESTING AND INCREASED POPS INTO THE LIKELY CATEGORY ACROSS                  
THE EASTERN CWA. THIS WAS BASED ON AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE ECMWF                  
AND NAM-WRF ON THE NEXT SHORT WAVE AND DEVELOPING WARM FRONT. PW'S              
INCREASE TO AROUND 1.75 INCHES WITH THE 310K THETA SURFACE FROM                 
THE NAM-WRF SHOWING STRONG ADIABATIC OMEGA DEVELOPING OVER THE                  
EASTERN CWA IN THE EVENING AND PERSISTING THROUGH MUCH OF THE                   
NIGHT. INCLUDED HEAVY RAIN WORDING FOR EASTERN AREAS AS WELL. POPS              
DIMINISH ON WEDNESDAY AS THE SHORT WAVE MOVES SOUTHEAST. HIGH                   
TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN WARM...UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S...WITH 850MB               
TEMPERATURES RUNNING AT LEAST 20 DEG C OR WARMER. EXPECT THE                    
WARMEST READINGS OVER WEST CENTRAL MN.                                          
LONGER TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY                                           
00Z GFS AND ECMWF ARE ACTUALLY IN FAIRLY CLOSE AGREEMENT ON THE                 
OVERALL PATTERN THRU THE EXTENDED...WITH BOTH SHOWING A FLATTENING              
OF THE UPR RDG /AND A MORE ZONAL FLO PATTERN/ LATE IN THE WK...AND              
AN AMPLIFICATION OF THE UPR RDG INTO THE NRN PLAINS BY THE END OF               
THE WKEND. HAVE KEPT THE CHC POPS GOING FOR THU AND THE SLGT CHC                
POPS FOR THU NGT WITH FRONT COMING THRU...AND S/WVS MOVING THRU THE             
FA. BY MID TO LATE WKEND...PRE- FRONTAL THERMAL RDG SETS IN...WHICH             
SHUD BRING SOME LO TO MID 90 MAX TEMPS TO THE AREA. TWEAKED THE                 
POP/WX GRIDS ON SAT AFTN AND NGT...WITH LO LVL WAA AND PARADE OF                
S/WVS BEING CONDUCIVE TO SOME SHWR/TSTM ACTIVITY...BEFORE LO TO MID             
LVL TEMPS GET A LITTLE TOO WARM FOR SUCH ACTIVITY. TEMPS SHUD DROP              
OFF A LITTLE ON MON...AS SFC HI DROPS THRU THE AREA.                            
&&                                                                              
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
MN...NONE.                                                                      
WI...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
RAH/KAT/JPR                                                                     
</PRE></TT></td>   mn                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC                               
1017 AM EDT MON JUL 24 2006                                                     
.SHORT TERM /TODAY/...MJRTY OF PCPN HAS MVD OFFSHR. FRNT IS ALSO                
OFFSHR WI N AND NE FLO OVR CWA. FOG AND ST BEING REPRTD IN SRN HALF             
OF CWA. SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A HINT OF A SFC WV FRMG OFF THE SC CST.              
THIS IS IN AGREEMENT WITH THE MDLS AND WL HELP BRING THE FRNT BCK N             
TDY. POPS WL INCRS FRM S TO N AS FRNT MVS N. 06Z GFS BRINGS IT N OF             
CWA LTR TNGT. HWVR LATEST RUC KPS IT FRTHR S THAN GFS TIL AT LEAST              
SS. WL KP TREND IN GRIDS AS IS. WL PIDDLE WI SKY AND TEMP TO MATCH              
CURRNT TREND. OTHRWS NO CHCS XPCTD.                                             
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...CURRENTLY HAVE MVFR CIGS OVER THE TERMINALS BUT EXPECT              
IMPROVING CONDITIONS TO VFR IN THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO. LIGHT NORTHEAST            
WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHEASTERLY BY LATE AFTERNOON AS FRONT TO THE               
SOUTH TRIES TO LIFT NORTH. WITH FRONT IN THE AREA EXPECT SCT SHRA/TS            
TO DEVELOP DURING PEAK HEATING.                                                 
&&                                                                              
.MARINE...NO UPDATE NEEDED THIS MORNING AS MARINE GRIDS IN GOOD                 
SHAPE. LIGHT NORTHEAST WINDS AOB 12 KT WILL VEER TO THE EAST OVER               
THE NORTH AND SOUTHEAST OVER SOUTHERN WATERS BY LATE AFTERNOON AS               
FRONTAL BOUNDARY BEGINS LIFTING NORTH. SEAS WILL AVERAGE 2 TO 4                 
FT.                                                                             
&&                                                                              
.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
NC...NONE.                                                                      
MARINE...NONE.                                                                  
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
CGG/JW                                                                          
</PRE></TT></td>   nc                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND                                         
1021 AM CDT MON JUL 24 2006                                                     
.UPDATE...MAIN CHALLENGE TODAY WILL BE ONGOING CONVECTION AND                   
RESULTANT EFFECTS OF CLOUD COVER ON TEMPERATURES. SHORTWAVE                     
EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR ACROSS E ND PRODUCING CLUSTER OF                         
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SE ND NOW PROPAGATING INTO WC MN. 12Z RUC                  
SHOWS INSTABILITY AXIS INTO CENTRAL MN AND WOULD EXPECT THESE                   
STORMS TO FOLLOW EXITING FA BY 18Z. MAIN SFC BOUNDARY WILL BE WELL              
S OF FA THIS AFTERNOON...AND WOULD EXPECT ANY ISOLD STORMS ACROSS               
S FA TO END BY MID-AFTERNOON. WILL ADJUST GRIDED POPS ACCORDING TO              
CURRENT SITUATION AND EXPECTATIONS ABOVE. MOST OF FA SHOULD SEE                 
AMPLE TIME TO HEAT...EXCEPT WC FA WHICH WILL BE UNDER CLOUD COVER               
INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON. WILL LOWER TEMPS ABOUT 5F ACROSS THIS                 
AREA.                                                                           
&&                                                                              
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
ND...NONE.                                                                      
MN...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
TG                                                                              
</PRE></TT></td>   nd                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI                                           
1035 AM CDT MON JUL 24 2006                                                     
.UPDATE...CURRENT GOES WATER VAPOR LOOPS INDICATING AN ORGANIZED                
SHORTWAVE TROUGH NEAR KFAR MOVING SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE FORECAST                 
AREA. THIS HAS ORGANIZED A SHOWER AREA WITH CG LIGHTNING                        
ACTIVITY OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS. MEANWHILE...THE LATEST SURFACE                
ANALYSES FROM 13/14Z INDICATE A CONVERGENCE FRONTAL BOUNDARY                    
ASSOCIATED WITH SYSTEM OVER QUEBEC DRAGGING SOUTH INTO NRN WI/MN                
ALONG A KPBH-KRPD-KSTC LINE. KDLH RADAR SHOWS ECHOES ON AND NORTH OF            
THIS BOUNDARY WITH CG ACTIVITY TOO. 12Z RUC INDICATES THIS FRONT WILL           
BE SUPPORTED BY 850MB THETA-E CONVERGENCE LATER THIS AFTERNOON NEAR             
I-90. INSTABILITY IS GROWING IN CLEAR SKIES WITH A MOISTURE POOL                
ALONG THE FRONT OF 65-70F DEWPOINTS. LAPS DATA SHOWING AROUND                   
1000J/KG OF MLCAPE AHEAD OF FRONT KEAU-KMDZ AND MORE HEATING ON THE             
WAY. DEWPOINTS SHOULD POOL ALONG THE FRONT AND THIS POOL WILL DROP              
SOUTH TODAY SO 67-70F WILL BE FOUND ALONG I-90 AND NORTH.                       
OVERALL...WITH SHORTWAVE TROUGH RIDING THE POLEWARD SIDE OF A WEAK              
UPPER LEVEL SPEED MAX MOVING RIGHT AT THE FORECAST AREA....THE                  
FRONTAL POSITION TO BE JUST NORTH OF I-90 BY LATER AFTERNOON...AND              
INSTABILITY THAT SHOULD BE AROUND 2000 J/KG MLCAPE WILL PROVIDE UPPER           
FORCING...SURFACE TRIGGER...AND ENERGY FOR ENHANCED STORM COVERAGE              
LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. HAVE INCREASED THE CHANGE               
FOR RAIN TO 40/50 BUT MAY NEED TO INCREASE THIS AGAIN BASED ON                  
EARLY AFTERNOON DEVELOPMENTS.                                                   
SEVERE THREAT...WITH THE INSTABILITY...HAIL AND WIND WILL BE THE                
THREATS AS MIDSHIFT ADVERTISED. THE WIND SHEAR IS STILL IN THE VERY             
LOW-LEVELS AND NOT DEEP SUPERCELL SHEAR. THE 0-3KM SHEAR TO ORGANIZE            
THE COLD POOL IS MODERATE SO THIS COULD PROVIDE BRIEF MULTICELL                 
ORGANIZATION. THE BEST ORGANIZATION MAY COME FROM THE SHORTWAVE                 
TROUGH WHICH COULD PROVIDE AN ORGANIZED LINE MODE IN                            
HIGH INSTABILITY...POSSIBLY ENHANCING THE WIND THREAT. OUTLIER                  
MODES...POSSIBLY A SPIN UP TORNADO ON THE FRONT IF UPDRAFTS CAN TAP             
THE LOW-LEVEL HELICITY PRESENT AND PERSIST. IF THE BOUNDARY                     
SLOWS/STOPS OVER THE FORECAST AREA...NON-SUPERCELL TORS COULD BE A              
THREAT. HOWEVER...THIS SEEMS MUCH LESS LIKELY FOR TODAY.                        
TIMING...LATER THIS AFTERNOON NORTH OF I-90 WILL BE THE MAIN                    
THREAT...SLOWLY SHIFTING SOUTH/EAST WITH SHORTWAVE IN THE EARLY                 
EVENING. LEADING EDGE OF SHORTWAVE WILL BE ON A WABASHA-TAYLOR LINE             
AROUND 5 PM.                                                                    
UPDATE SENT.                                                                    
&&                                                                              
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
WI...NONE.                                                                      
MN...NONE.                                                                      
IA...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
BAUMGARDT                                                                       
</PRE></TT></td>   wi                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL                                         
330 PM EDT MON JUL 24 2006                                                      
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
19Z WATER VAPOR AND 500MB RUC ANALYSIS SHOW LARGE DOMINANT UPPER                
RIDGE CENTERED OF THE SOUTHWEST UNITED STATES BEGINNING TO                      
DE-AMPLIFY SLIGHTLY AS WEAK SHORT-WAVE ENERGY MOVES ASHORE ACROSS               
PACIFIC NORTHWEST. ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE IS SEEN CROSSING THE UPPER            
MS VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES WHICH IS HELPING TO KICK OUT AND                      
DE-AMPLIFY THE EAST COAST TROUGH. GLOBAL MODELS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT            
ON UPPER LEVEL PATTERN EVOLUTION ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER OF THE                
UNITED STATES. ALL SHOWING SHORTWAVES ENERGY/DYNAMICS REMAINING WELL            
TO THE NORTH THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD...ALTHOUGH THE DETAILS OF              
SHORTWAVE TIMING/STRENGTH DIFFER. STRONG UPPER RIDGE OVER THE                   
EASTERN SUBTROPICAL ATLANTIC CONTINUES TO SLOWLY BUILD ACROSS THE               
SOUTHEAST AND EASTERN GOMEX THOUGH TUESDAY...AND IS OVERHEAD AND IN             
CONTROL BY LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. THIS EVOLUTION WILL HELP               
BRING TEMPS BACK TOWARD CLIMO OR EVEN A BIT ABOVE BY THE MIDDLE/END             
OF THE WEEK. POPS LOOK TO BE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL FOR                  
WED/THU BEFORE RETURNING TO NEAR NORMAL BY FRIDAY.                              
AT THE SURFACE...SUBTROPICAL RIDGE LYING ACROSS CENTRAL/SOUTHERN                
FLORIDA DOWN INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN GOMEX BEGINS TO LIFT BACK NORTH              
OVERNIGHT AND THEN HOLDS OVER OR JUST SOUTH OF THE COASTAL WATERS               
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK. GRADIENT BECOME VERY WEAK BY            
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY ALLOWING AFTERNOON SEA-BREEZE                 
DEVELOPMENT TO BECOME THE MAIN FOCUS FOR WIDELY SCATTERED-SCATTERED             
CONVECTION.                                                                     
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)...                                       
REST OF THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS WILL SEE CONTINUED AREAS OF             
CONVECTION ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. STILL CAN NOT RULE OUT SOME                
ISOLATED HAIL AND STRONGER WINDS ACROSS OUR NORTHERN GA/AL ZONES                
WHERE BETTER MIXING TOOK PLACE DURING THE EARLIER PART OF THE                   
DAY...HOWEVER...THIS SHOULD BE LIMITED TO ONLY THE STRONGEST STORMS             
SINCE SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION DURING THE AFTERNOON IS BEGINNING TO               
LIMIT CAPE/INSTABILITY AROUND THE AREA. MODELS (ESPECIALLY THE NAM)             
CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE A LOW/MIDDLE LEVEL WIND MAX BETWEEN 30-35KTS              
AROUND 850MB MOVING ACROSS THE PANHANDLE AND ESPECIALLY BIG                     
BEND/COASTAL WATERS AREAS DURING THE EVENING/OVERNIGHT HOURS.                   
STRONGER STORMS ACROSS THIS REGION MAY BE ABLE TO TAP SOME OF THIS              
WIND ENERGY DESPITE THE NEARLY MOIST ADIABATIC THERMO PROFILE. WILL             
HAVE TO KEEP AN CLOSE EYE ON THE OFFSHORE NOCTURNAL CONVECTION AS A             
FEW OF THESE STORMS MAY BE QUITE GUSTY.                                         
UPPER RIDGE AND SURFACE RIDGE COME OVERHEAD OR JUST SOUTH OF AREA ON            
TUESDAY. ALTHOUGH AVAILABLE MOISTURE...THERMODYNAMICS DO NOT LOOK AS            
ABUNDANT AS THE PAST TWO DAYS...ENOUGH RESIDUAL MOISTURE IS LEFT TO             
STILL EXPECT A FAIRLY ACTIVE SEABREEZE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND                 
EVENING. OLD OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES WILL ALSO BE IGNITION POINTS FOR                
CONVECTION UP ACROSS OUR AL/GA ZONES. MODIFIED AFTERNOON SOUNDING               
STILL SHOWING BETWEEN 1800 AND 2300 J/KG OF CAPE FROM NORTH TO SOUTH            
WITH LI'S -4 TO -5C AND PW VALUES OVER 2". BY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY            
...THE UPPER RIDGE IS CLEARLY IN CONTROL OF OUR WEATHER...AND FOR               
THAT REASON...TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY TO BE BACK SEVERAL DEGREES                
ABOVE NORMAL ACROSS THE INTERIOR FOR LOCATIONS THAT REMAIN DRY.                 
GENERALLY WENT WITH POPS ABOUT 10% BELOW CLIMO...BUT STILL IN THE               
CHANCE CATEGORY. UPPER RIDGE DIRECTLY OVERHEAD WILL CONTRIBUTE TO A             
WEAK CAP IN THE MIDLEVELS. DESPITE THIS CAP...EXPECTING MORE WIDELY             
SCATTERED ACTIVITY TO DEVELOP ALONG THE INLAND PENETRATING SEABREEZE            
AS FORECASTED CAPE VALUES ARE STILL AROUND 2000 J/KG WITH PW VALUES             
BETWEEN 1.8 AND 2.0" (NEAR NORMAL).                                             
.LONG TERM (FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)...                                           
WE WILL THEN SEE A RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL TEMPS AND POPS FOR THE                 
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE DEEP LAYER RIDGE E OF THE AREA            
SHOULD KEEP ANY FRONTS FROM PENETRATING THIS FAR S, AND THERE DO NOT            
APPEAR TO BE ANY TROPICAL SYSTEMS ON THE HORIZON.                               
&&                                                                              
.MARINE...                                                                      
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS LOCATED JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE COASTAL                 
WATERS TONIGHT WILL SLIDE BACK NORTH THROUGH THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY               
AND THEN REMAIN ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.               
THE RIDGE AXIS IS THEN FORECAST TO LIFT NORTH OF THE WATERS TOWARD              
THE END OF THE WORK WEEK AND BEGINNING OF THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. WITH            
THE RIDGE AXIS NEARBY THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD...WIND AND SEAS               
ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW CAUTION LEVELS.                                    
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO BUFFET THE TAF SITES               
FROM TIME TO TIME THIS AFTERNOON...WITH IFR VIS AND WIND GUSTS TO 30            
KTS IN THE STRONGER CELLS. THESE STORMS WILL GRADUALLY WIND DOWN                
FROM SW TO NE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING...WITH DECENT               
FOG POTENTIAL ONCE AGAIN OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY AT ANY OF THE SITES             
WHICH RECEIVE RAINFALL AFTER SUNSET.                                            
&&                                                                              
.FIRE WEATHER...                                                                
A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE                                
REGION WILL LIFT NORTHWARD DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...AS                  
A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM BUILDS IN OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF                      
MEXICO. THIS WILL RESULT IN A GRADUAL DECREASE IN SHOWERS AND                   
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE AREA...ALONG WITH INCREASING AFTERNOON                   
HIGH TEMPERATURES.                                                              
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
TALLAHASSEE  74 91 73 95 / 50 60 30 30                                          
PANAMA CITY  78 90 77 92 / 40 40 20 20                                          
DOTHAN       73 91 73 94 / 50 50 30 30                                          
ALBANY       73 92 73 94 / 50 50 30 30                                          
VALDOSTA     73 91 73 95 / 50 60 30 40                                          
CROSS CITY   74 89 73 93 / 40 50 20 40                                          
&&                                                                              
.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
AL...NONE.                                                                      
GA...NONE.                                                                      
FL...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
AVIATION/FIRE WX...GOULD                                                        
PUBLIC/MARINE...MROCZKA                                                         
LONG TERM...WOOL                                                                
</PRE></TT></td>   fl                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL                                  
315 PM CDT MON JUL 24 2006                                                      
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
315 PM                                                                          
THE SURFACE BASE CONVECTIVE AVAILABLE ENERGY ARE FORECAST TO BE                 
HIGHEST OVER WILL COUNTY IN NORTHEAST ILLINOIS AROUND 22 UTC. THESE             
VALUES WERE FROM THE RUC40 MODEL. THE MAXIMUM IS FORECAST TO MOVE               
INTO COOK AND DUPAGE COUNTY BY 00 UTC. THE INSTABILITY IS THERE BUT             
THERE IS NO LARGE SCALE FORCING. THE WRF_ARW SHOWS A WAVE PATTERN               
ACROSS CENTRAL WISCONSIN. THERE IS A NEAR ZONAL FLOW AT 700 MB. THIS            
MAY INDICATE SOME WAVES GENERATED BY FRONTOGENESIS IN CENTRAL                   
WISCONSIN. THE WRF KEEPS THIS FEATURE NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA.               
THROUGH THE NIGHT.  AN UPPER AIR WAVE IS SEEN TO IN THE NORTHERN                
PARTS OF WISCONSIN. THIS MAY MOVE SOUTH AND PUSH THE FRONT SOUTH.               
WILL LEAVE A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FOR TUESDAY AS THE FRONT AND               
ITS UPPER AIR SUPPORT MAY MOVE SOUTH. THE RADAR SHOWS KELVIN                    
HELMHOLTZ WAVES OVER THE FORECAST AREA. WE MAY HAVE THE SAME MIXED              
LAYER TUESDAY DURING THE DAY WITH CUMULUS CLOUDS FROM THE THERMALS              
AND SOUTH WIND IN THE MORNING. THERE IS FORECAST SOME CONVECTIVE                
AVAILABLE POTENTIAL ENERGY FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THIS IS FROM THE              
GFS MODEL.                                                                      
WILL KEEP THE CHANCE PROBABILITY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. THERE WILL BE            
SEVERAL SHORT WAVE TROUGHS MOVING THROUGH. THE GFS MAINTAINS THE                
FORECAST INSTABILITY THROUGH THE PERIOD. MADE LITTLE CHANGE FOR THE             
TEMPERATURE FORECASTS.                                                          
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR 18Z TAFS...                                            
1250 PM CDT                                                                     
FORECAST ISSUE OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD IS THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND             
THUNDERSTORMS THAT COULD POP UP LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.               
MAIN FORCING FOR THE CURRENT ISOLATED SHOWERS SEEMS TO BE A MID                 
LEVEL TROUGH WORKING THROUGH WESTERN WISCONSIN/EASTERN IOWA AT 12Z.             
THE PREVIOUS CU HAVE FLATTENED OUT THERE DOESN'T SEEM TO BE MUCH                
FORCING LEFT WITH THIS WAVE FOR THE TAF SITES.  AS THIS CLOUD DECK              
MOVES OFF TO THE SOUTH...SOME AFTERNOON HEATING COULD POP UP A FEW              
THUNDERSTORMS...BUT WILL BE TOO ISOLATED THAT CHANCES ARE VERY LOW              
OF THEM REACHING THE TAF SITES.                                                 
THE OTHER MAIN FORECAST ISSUE IS THE WINDS.  SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS                
WILL BE THE NORM THROUGHOUT AS HIGH PRESSURE MAINTAINS ITS HOLD OVER            
THE SOUTHEAST US AND A FRONTAL BOUNDARY HANGS OUT OVER NORTHERN                 
WISCONSIN.  WINDS BETWEEN 900-850MB ARE BETWEEN 25-30 KTS.  SO IF               
THESE WINDS MIX TO THE SFC...THERE COULD BE SOME GUSTS THAT REACH 25            
KTS OR SO.                                                                      
WITH A FAIRLY HIGH TEMPERATURE/DEW POINT DEPRESSION IN PLACE FROM               
THE SFC UP TO 10KFT...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE TAF            
FORECAST PERIOD...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A SHOWER PASSING NEAR A SITE.           
HALBACH                                                                         
&&                                                                              
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
.IL...NONE.                                                                     
.IN...NONE.                                                                     
.LM...NONE.                                                                     
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</PRE></TT></td>   il                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA                                       
125 PM EDT MON JUL 24 2006                                                      
.AVIATION...                                                                    
SFC ANALYSIS AT 17Z DEPICTED A COLD FRONT FROM CNTRL ONTARIO                    
...SOUTHWEST INTO NRN WISCONSIN AND SRN MN.  THIS FRONT IS NOT                  
EXPECTED TO MAKE IT INTO OUR REGION.  OF GREATER SIGNIFICANCE OVER              
THE NEXT 24 HOURS WILL BE HOW SVRL S/WVS IN THE WNW FLOW ALOFT WILL             
AFFECT THE REGION.  ONE SUCH DISTURBANCE WAS LOCATED FROM NRN LOWER             
MICHIGAN INTO SRN WISCONSIN.  THIS FEATURE IS FCST TO BE SE OF THE              
REGION BY 06Z.  SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM HAD DEVELOPED                
WITH THIS SYSTEM EARLIER THIS MORNING...AND SOME OF THE ACTIVITY WAS            
STILL HANGING ON ACRS SOUTHEAST LAKE MICHIGAN.  AT THIS TIME...THERE            
IS A SMALL CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACRS SOUTHWEST LOWER             
MICHIGAN INTO FAR NORTHWEST INDIANA THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS AS                
SOME SFC BASED CONVECTION MY INITIATE.  HOWEVER...THE PROBABILITY               
REMAINS TOO LOW AT THIS POINT TO MENTION AT KSBN...AND WILL MONITOR             
RADAR TRENDS THROUGH THE AFTN HOURS.                                            
ANOTHER S/WV ENTERING WRN MN AT THIS TIME IS FCST TO DROP SE THIS               
EVENING...THEN IT WILL MOVE MORE EASTERLY ACRS SRN WISCONSIN/LOWER              
MICHIGAN LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY.  BEST LOW LVL FORCING/MOISTURE              
CONVERGENCE/INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE REGION THROUGH                 
TUESDAY...AND AS A RESULT WILL KEEP TAFS DRY.  THERE WILL                       
BE...HOWEVER...AN INCREASE IN MID AND HIGH LVL CLOUDS FROM THE                  
CONVECTION UPSTREAM THAT WILL SPILL SOUTHEAST INTO THE REGION                   
OVERNIGHT AND ON TUESDAY.                                                       
SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 10 TO 20 KNOTS WITH LOCAL GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS            
THIS AFTN WILL SUBSIDE ONCE THE SUN SETS AROUND 01Z.                            
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION...                                                             
UPDATE...                                                                       
KIWX RADAR WAS SHOWING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACRS                 
SOUTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.  THESE SHOWERS AND                 
THUNDERSTORMS WERE IN ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPR LVL S/WV THAT STRETCHED            
FROM NRN LOWER MICHIGAN SOUTHWEST INTO SRN WISCONSIN.  THIS S/WV                
WILL SLOWLY MOVE SE INTO THE FCST AREA THROUGH THIS EVENING.  HAVE              
INTRODUCED A 30 PERCENT CHC OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACRS                   
SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN AND FAR NORTHWEST INDIANA TO ACCOUNT FOR               
THE POSSIBILITY OF PCPN IN THESE AREAS AS THEY WILL BE THE MOST                 
LIKELY REGION TO SEE SOME ACTIVITY THIS AFTN AND EVENING.  WILL                 
INTERROGATE MODEL DATA AND OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS TO SEE IF THE AREA              
HAS TO BE EXPANDED AND/OR EXTENDED IN TIME BEYOND THIS EVENING WITH             
THE AFTN FCST PACKAGE. CURRENT FCST TEMPS ARE STILL ON TRACK...SO NO            
CHANGES NEEDED.                                                                 
SHORT TERM...                                                                   
TODAY AND TONIGHT.                                                              
RIDGE AXIS HAS NOW SHIFTED EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA...ALLOWING WAA             
TO BEGIN. 850 MB TEMPS WILL CLIMB INTO THE UPPER TEENS BY AFTERNOON.            
THIS COMBINED WITH WHAT SHOULD BE A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE...AT LEAST            
TO START WITH...WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO CLIMB BACK TO NORMAL OR EVEN                
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS TODAY. DEWPTS WILL ALSO BE ON THE                  
INCREASE WITH READINGS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S COMMON UPSTREAM.                   
FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAKING SLOW PROGRESS SOUTH FROM MINNESOTA AND LK               
SUPERIOR. LINE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS IN ADVANCE OF THIS DIVING SOUTH            
AND EAST INTO NORTHERN LWR MI...POSING NO CONCERN. A SMALL LINE OF              
SHOWERS AND STORMS HAS DEVELOPED OVER THE PAST HOUR EAST OF LACROSSE            
WISCONSIN. PROFILER DATA IS MISSING AT THIS TIME...BUT RUC SHOWS A              
30+KT LLJ FEEDING INTO THIS AREA WITH INCREASING LOW LEVEL THETA-E.             
TRENDS AND 850-300 MB THICKNESS PLOTS SHOW THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD ALSO            
DRIFT INTO MICHIGAN AND POSE NO THREAT. WILL NEED TO MONITOR TRENDS             
TO MAKE SURE BUT WILL MAINTAIN A DRY FORECAST TODAY. CU RULE SHOWS              
DIURNAL DEVELOPMENT ONCE AGAIN...BUT VALUES NOT AS HIGH AS                      
YESTERDAY. ALSO WITH INCREASING SFC WINDS AS GRADIENT INCREASES AND             
STRONGER WIND FLOW IS MIXED DOWN SOMEWHAT...LAKE BREEZE DEVELOPMENT             
UNLIKELY. SCT CU WILL DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN...BUT CU RULE SHOWING NOT              
AS MUCH COVERAGE AS TODAY.                                                      
FOCUS BEGINS TO TURN TONIGHT ONTO ABOVE MENTIONED FRONTAL BOUNDARY              
ACROSS LWR MI THAT WILL BE MAKING SLOW PROGRESS SOUTH. COMPLEX OF               
STORMS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND MOVE ALONG IT TONIGHT. TRACK OF THIS             
SHOULD REMAIN FAR ENOUGH NORTH TO ALLOW CONTINUED DRY FORECAST                  
TONIGHT. WITH CONTINUED WAA AND INCREASING MSTR LOWS WILL BE A GOOD             
10 DEGREE WARMER IN MANY LOCATIONS TONIGHT...DROPPING ONLY TO THE               
MID TO UPPER 60S.                                                               
LONG TERM...                                                                    
TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. NOT QUITE READY TO THROW LATEST NAM OUT                 
THE WINDOW. SHORTWAVE ENERGY OVER NORTHEAST MT SHOULD CONTINUE TO               
DAMPEN AS LONGWAVE TROF ACROSS EASTERN STATES DEAMPLIFIES AS NEW                
ENGLAND WAVE LIFTS NORTHEAST AND GREAT BASIN HIGH SLOWLY WEAKENS AND            
PUSHES SOUTH WHERE NAM HAS SHOWN RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY HERE. GFS               
AND NAM WITH HUGE DISPARITIES WITH REGARDS TO MOS POPS TUESDAY                  
NIGHT...CATEGORICAL VS. LT 20. TUE NIGHT MCS GENERATION PER GFS A               
BIT SUSPECT WITH CONVECTIVE SCALE FEEDBACK. PREFERENCE LIES TOWARD              
CONSISTENCY AND NAM AND AWAIT MORE STRONGER ENERGY OVER NORTHWEST               
TERRITORIES TO DIVE SOUTHEAST INTO CENTRAL CANADA/UPPER PLAINS BY               
MIDWEEK. DEEP MOIST TRANSPORT AHEAD OF SYSTEM WITH PWAT INCREASING              
TO NEAR 2 INCHES AND ARRIVAL OF BETTER KINEMATICS/INSTABILITY LATE              
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WITH POTENTIAL MCS DEVELOPMENT UPSTREAM TO MOVE             
ESE THROUGH SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES WED NIGHT....HAVE RAISED TSRA POPS             
TO HIGH CHANCE RANGE WED NIGHT AND THROUGH THU FOR POTENTIAL AIRMASS            
DESTABILIZATION AND LOW LEVEL VEERING AHEAD OF APPROACHING MID LEVEL            
WAVE THU. NO OTHER CHANGES REMAINDER OF FORECAST.                               
&&                                                                              
.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
IN...NONE.                                                                      
MI...NONE.                                                                      
OH...NONE.                                                                      
LM...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
UPDATE/AVIATION...HICKMAN                                                       
SHORT TERM...FISHER                                                             
LONG TERM....MURPHY                                                             
</PRE></TT></td>   in                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL                                      
311 PM CDT MON JUL 24 2006                                                      
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
EARLIER SHOWERS HAVE DISSIPATED OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN CWA AND CLOUDS            
ARE BREAKING.  MEANWHILE...CONVECTION IS FIRING IN MN/WI ALONG THE              
SURFACE BOUNDARY...AND ELEVATED ECHOES ARE SHOWING UP IN NORTHERN IA            
BENEATH THE ACCAS FIELD.  19Z MSAS ANALYSIS INDICATES SURFACE LOW               
CENTERED OVER THE UP OF MI/NORTHERN LAKE MI WITH SECONDARY LOW OVER             
CENTRAL SD.  SURFACE BOUNDARY EXTENDS BETWEEN LOW CENTERS AND IS THE            
FOCUS OF THE MN/WI CONVECTION.  PRESSURE FALLS OF 2MB/3HR WERE                  
CENTERED OVER SOUTHEASTERN IA AT 19Z.  SUBJECTIVE 12Z UPPER AIR                 
ANALYSIS INDICATES NORTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER THE REGION...WITH UPPER              
TROUGH PASSING EAST OVER THE GREAT LAKES...UPPER HIGH CENTERED OVER             
THE FOUR CORNERS...AND SEVERAL WEAK WAVES UPSTREAM EMBEDDED IN THE              
FLOW.  BROAD AREA OF 500MB HEIGHT FALLS AT THE TOP OF THE RIDGE                 
INDICATE SOME FLATTENING AND MAKE PROGRESSION OF INDIVIDUAL WAVES               
HARDER TO PICK OUT.  850MB LOW WAS CENTERED IN NORTHERN ONT WITH                
SECONDARY LOW OVER NORTHERN WY/SOUTHERN MT.  MOISTURE WAS POOLING               
ALONG THE BOUNDARY EXTENDING BETWEEN LOWS AND WAS ALSO STARTING TO              
RETURN FROM THE GULF.                                                           
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND TOMORROW...                                           
FORECAST FOCUS IS MAINLY ON POTENTIAL FOR PRECIP TO GRAZE THE                   
NORTHERN CWA TONIGHT...FOLLOWED BY POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTIVE                     
DEVELOPMENT TOMORROW AFTERNOON.  ELEVATED STORMS IN NRN IA ARE                  
PROGRESSING SOUTHEASTWARD AND SHOULD REACH THE CWA BY ABOUT 00Z.                
MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WERE STRONG IN THE 12Z KDVN SOUNDING AND WERE             
STILL AROUND 7.5 C/KM OVER NORTHERN IA AT 19Z ACCORDING TO RUC                  
ANALYSIS...BUT STORMS WILL OUTRUN 850MB SUPPORT AS THEY PROGRESS                
EASTWARD AWAY FROM THE ELEVATED BOUNDARY AND SHOULD WEAKEN AS THEY              
APPROACH THE CWA.  LOW-LEVEL JET LATER TONIGHT MAY HELP FUEL A                  
RESURGENCE OF THESE STORMS...BUT AGAIN EXPECT THEM TO REMAIN                    
NON-SEVERE THIS FAR SOUTH OF THE 850MB BOUNDARY.  MODELS PROGRESS               
THE TSRA ACROSS THE NORTHERN CWA THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING                      
HOURS...AND WOULD AGREE WITH THIS SCENARIO WITH LOW-LEVEL JET FEED              
AND BUILDING MOISTURE.  ACTIVITY SHOULD KEEP TEMPS UP TONIGHT IN THE            
NORTH...AND HAVE BUMPED UP MINS THERE BY A FEW DEGREES.  ACTIVITY               
MAY TAKE SOME TIME TO CLEAR THE NORTHEASTERN CWA IN THE                         
MORNING...ALSO HOLDING MAX TEMPS TOMORROW DOWN BY A FEW DEGREES.                
OTHERWISE...EXPECT TEMPS TOMORROW TO BE SIMILAR TO TODAY WITH                   
WARMING 850MB TEMPS AND CONTINUED SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WITH STRONG                
MIXING COUNTERED BY INCREASED MOISTURE AND A GREATER AMOUNT OF                  
CLOUDS THAN TODAY.  MODELS INDICATE CONVECTION INITIATING IN                    
WESTERN/NORTHERN IA TOMORROW LATE AFTERNOON ALONG THE SURFACE                   
BOUNDARY AS IT DRIFTS EASTWARD...SUPPORTED BY A SHORTWAVE ROTATING              
THROUGH THE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW.  HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN THE                 
NORTHEASTERN THIRD OR SO TO CAPTURE POTENTIAL FOR INITIATION NEAR               
THE CWA...BUT BELIEVE MAIN SHOW WILL OCCUR BEGINNING TUESDAY EVENING.           
..MAYES..                                                                       
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM...TOMORROW NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...                                   
NW FLOW WITH EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES KEEP THUNDERSTORM CHANCES IN                   
FORECAST THROUGH FRIDAY...THEN UPPER RIDGE OUT WEST BEGINS TO                   
FLATTEN AND SHIFT EAST TOWARD LOCAL AREA OVER WEEKEND INTO NEXT                 
WEEK. WARMER TEMPERATURES ALOFT UNDER RIDGE EXPECTED TO END STRETCH             
OF ACTIVE WEATHER...WITH ASSOCIATED CAP PROVIDING HOT BUT DRY                   
WEATHER SAT THROUGH MON.                                                        
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY LOOKS TO HAVE BEST CHANCES FOR                     
WIDESPREAD RAIN AS UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY TOPPING               
RIDGE OVER MT AND ALBERTA SLIDES SE OVER AREA. AT THE SAME TIME...H8            
RETURN FLOW OF GULF MOISTURE CREEPING NORTH INTO SOUTHERN PLAINS                
TODAY...WILL ALREADY BE WELL ENTRENCHED OVER AREA. SHORT TERM MODELS            
IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH MCS DEVELOPING UPSTREAM OVER NW IA OR SW              
MN TUE NIGHT... SPREADING SE OVER LOCAL AREA BY MORNING. GFS                    
HAS CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK ISSUES WITH LARGE QPF BULLSEYE OVER 3 INCHES            
NE OF DVN 00-06Z. HOWEVER...WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER SHOWN EXCEEDING             
2 INCHES OVER MUCH OF AREA...HEAVY RAIN IS DEFINITE POSSIBILITY IF              
LARGE MCS MATERIALIZE OR TRAINING OF CELLS OCCURS. DISSIPATING MCS              
WILL LIKELY LEAVE MESO BOUNDARIES ON WED ALTHOUGH MAIN COLD FRONT               
DEPICTED TO REMAIN WELL W-NW OF AREA. ADDITIONAL MID LEVEL                      
SHORTWAVES DEPICTED WED WILL PRODUCE ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS ALONG             
THESE BOUNDARIES WITH PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY              
LINGERING. HAVE INCREASED POPS TO LIKELY FOR TUE NIGHT INTO WED.                
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH LINGERS OVER AREA WED NIGHT INTO THU WITH                
WEAK BOUNDARIES AND ABUNDANT MOISTURE AT H8 CONTINUING THUNDERSTORM             
CHANCES THROUGH FRIDAY. UPPER RIDGE AND ASSOCIATED CAPPING BUILDS               
OVER AREA LATE FRI INTO SATURDAY TO END MENTIONABLE CHANCES OF                  
PRECIPITATION. WENT A FEW DEGREES ABOVE GUIDANCE SUN AND MON WITH               
HIGHS IN 90S MOST AREAS FAVORING CONSISTENT ECMWF SOLUTION WITH                 
HIGHER UPPER LEVEL HTS.                                                         
..SHEETS..                                                                      
&&                                                                              
.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
IA...NONE.                                                                      
IL...NONE.                                                                      
MO...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
MAYES/SHEETS                                                                    
</PRE></TT></td>   ia                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY                                             
347 PM EDT MON JUL 24 2006                                                      
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...                                 
18Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS AN INVERTED SURFACE TROF OVER ERN                    
TENNESSEE TO ERN KENTUCKY. MODELS WERE INDICATING INCREASED MEAN RH             
VALUES AND OMEGA MOVING NORTHWARD OVER EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN KENTUCKY.           
VISIBLE SATELLITE WAS SHOWING A MORE EXTENSIVE CU FIELD IN THE SE               
PORTION OF OUR CWA. A LESS DEVELOPED CU FIELD WAS OVER THE REMAINDER            
OF THE AREA. THIS INDICATES MODEL SOUNDINGS ARE DEPICTING THE                   
ATMOSPHERE ACCURATELY THIS AFTERNOON WITH LOWER CONVECTIVE TEMPS AND            
A WEAKER CAP IN THE SE PORTION OF THE CWA. JACKSON WEATHER SERVICE              
DOPPLER RADAR SHOWED SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS FIRING AS OF 3 PM IN BELL            
COUNTY...AND IN EASTERN TENNESSEE AND WESTERN VIRGINIA. I KEPT THE              
MENTION OF ISOLATED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EVENING IN THE              
SOUTHERN AND EASTERN PORTION OF THE CWA. AFTER THE CONVECTION                   
DISSIPATES THIS EVENING...SOME AREAS OF MAINLY VALLEY FOG WILL FORM             
AGAIN TONIGHT. WENT WITH LOWS GENERALLY IN THE MID 60S IN MOST AREAS            
TONIGHT.                                                                        
FOR TUESDAY NGM...WRF AND GFS ARE SHOWING A WEAK H5 TROF AND AN                 
ASSOCIATED VORT MAX MOVING THROUGH. MODELS ARE INDICATING CAPES OF              
AROUND 1000 TO 1500 J/KG IN THE AFTERNOON. MODEL SOUNDINGS ARE                  
SHOWING A WEAK CAP IN PLACE...BUT WITH CONVECTIVE TEMPS IN THE MID              
80S WE SHOULD BE ABLE TO BREAK THROUGH THE CAP. SHOULD SEE SOME                 
ISOLATED CONVECTION FIRING AGAIN IN THE AFTERNOON. MIXING DOWN 850 MB           
TEMPS...AND ACCOUNTING FOR SOME CLOUD COVER...I WENT WITH MAX TEMPS             
IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S.                                                        
TUESDAY NIGHT ANY ISOLATED CONVECTION FROM THE DAYTIME HEATING AND              
THE UPPER WAVE SHOULD DISSIPATE IN THE EVENING. WENT WITH MIN TEMPS             
AROUND 65 IN THE VALLEYS TO AROUND 70 ON THE RIDGES.                            
WEDNESDAY THE WRF MODEL IS SHOWING A WEAK VORT MAX MOVING THROUGH.              
MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE ANOTHER WEAK MID LEVEL CAP...BUT AGAIN WITH            
CONVECTIVE TEMPS IN THE MID 80S WE SHOULD BE ABLE TO BREAK THROUGH              
THE CAP. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN SOME ISOLATED CONVECTION FIRING AGAIN            
IN THE AFTERNOON. MIXING DOWN 850 MB TEMPS AND ACCOUNTING FOR SOME              
CLOUDS YIELDS HIGH TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S OVER THE AREA.                 
GENERALLY SHOULD BE A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER THAN TUESDAY.                        
FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT I KEPT A MENTION OF ISOLATED SHOWERS OR                     
THUNDERSTORMS EARLY. OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD BE FROM THE UPPER 60S TO             
THE LOWER 70S WITH A LITTLE CLOUD COVER AND INCREASED DEW POINTS.               
LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...                                          
THE MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT AND HAVE HAD GOOD RUN TO RUN            
CONSISTENCY. EVEN THE ENSEMBLES ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT. AS                
SUCH...JUST MADE A COUPLE OF MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE PREVIOUS                  
FORECAST. THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE AREA IS IN THE PROCESS OF                   
TRANSITIONING TO MORE ZONE PATTERN. AT THE SURFACE...THE BERMUDA HIGH           
WILL BUILD BACK INTO THE SOUTHEAST US ALLOWING FOR A RETURN OF GULF             
MOISTURE TO THE AREA. THIS WILL HELP TO SPARK SOME SCATTERED...MOSTLY           
AFTERNOON...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION FROM THURSDAY           
THROUGH SUNDAY. THE FORECAST AREA WILL STAY IN THE WARM SECTOR AS ALL           
THE FRONTAL SYSTEMS ATTEMPTING TO OVERCOME THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL BE            
REPULSED AND WILL STAY TO THE NORTH.                                            
THE TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITIES SHOULD STAY ABOVE SEASONABLE NORMS              
DURING THE PERIOD. ONLY MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENT TO THE TEMPERATURE                
FORECASTS SINCE THE MODELS HAVE BEEN BEHAVING SO WELL.                          
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION...                                                             
1022 AM EDT MON JUL 24 2006                                                     
DISCUSSION...                                                                   
UPDATED THE FORECAST TO ADD ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER             
OUR SOUTHERN AND EASTERN CWA. RUC...WRF AND GFS ARE SHOWING AN AREA OF          
INCREASED MEAN RH AND OMEGA MOVING NORTHWARD FROM ERN TENNESSEE. THIS           
APPEARS TO BE ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK INVERTED SURFACE TROF OVER ERN             
TENNESSEE INDICATED ON THE 13Z SURFACE ANALYSIS. MORNING SOUNDINGS              
SHOW A WEAK MID LEVEL CAP IN PLACE...BUT MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW THIS              
CAP WEAKENING LATER THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE SRN AND SE PORTIONS OF              
THE CWA. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO AT LEAST ISOLATED CONVECTION FIRING.               
CONVECTIVE TEMPS SHOULD LOWER INTO THE UPPER 70S IN SOME AREAS...WITH           
MID 80S REMAINING IN THE CENTRAL AND NRN PORTION OF THE CWA WHERE THE           
CAP REMAINS A LITTLE STRONGER. ALSO LOWERED TEMPS A FEW                         
DEGREES...ESPECIALLY WHERE THE CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO FIRE. ALSO             
INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND MENTIONED PARTLY CLOUDY IN OUR ENTIRE                 
CWA...WITH CU DEVELOPING IN THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. UPDATED             
TEXT AND GRAPHICAL FORECASTS HAVE BEEN SENT.                                    
300 AM EDT MON JUL 24 2006                                                      
DISCUSSION...                                                                   
HIGH PRESSURE STILL FIRMLY IN CONTROL OF WEATHER ACROSS FORECAST                
AREA. 0Z 500 AND 850 HPA CHART ANALYSIS SHOW RIDGING ALSO IN PLACE              
AT MIDLEVELS...WITH LARGE AREA OF 500 HPA HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE                
OVER WESTERN UNITED STATES...WHICH SHOULD PUSH EASTERN TROUGH OUT OF            
THE STATES IN THE NEXT DAY OR SO. CURRENT WATER VAPOR AND IR                    
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATING THAT A LARGE AMOUNT OF DRY AIR IS                  
CURRENTLY IN PLACE ACROSS MUCH OF THE MIDWEST. WITH THIS IN                     
MIND...AND WITH NO STRONG SYSTEM TO PUSH HIGH PRESSURE OUT OF                   
AREA...ANTICIPATE A DRY FORECAST ONCE AGAIN THROUGH MIDWEEK THIS                
WEEK. WENT WITH GFS SOLUTION ONCE AGAIN FOR CONSISTENCY.                        
MADE A FEW MINOR TWEAKS TO CLOUD COVER FORECAST...GENERALLY                     
DECREASING CLOUD COVER THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WITH A GRADUAL INCREASE              
IN CLOUD COVER TO MOSTLY CLOUDY FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.              
MODELS INDICATING THAT STRONG LOW LEVEL JET WILL DEVELOP AND MOVE               
INTO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST WEDNESDAY NIGHT. AT THIS TIME                  
MODELS ARE NOT MOVING ANY ORGANIZED WEATHER SYSTEMS ACROSS THE                  
EASTER HALF OF THE UNITED STATES WEDNESDAY NIGHT...SO DECIDED TO                
REMOVE POPS FROM FORECAST THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY. IT APPEARS THAT               
THE INGREDIENTS FOR PRECIPITATION WONT FULLY COME TOGETHER UNTIL                
THURSDAY AFTERNOON.                                                             
WINDS WERE TWEAKED SLIGHTLY ALSO TO REFLECT CURRENT MODEL                       
OUTPUT...WITH A PERSISTENT SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WIND DIRECTION                    
ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME THROUGH DAY 3. DEWPOINTS LOOKED GOOD AND               
WERE UNCHANGED. ADJUSTMENTS WERE ALSO MADE TO WEATHER AND QPF GRIDS             
TO REFLECT CHANGES MADE TO POP GRIDS. STILL LEAVING IN MENTION OF               
VALLEY FOG FOR TONIGHT AND TUESDAY NIGHT.                                       
900 PM EDT SUN JUL 23 2006                                                      
HIGH PRESSURE IS FIRMLY IN CONTROL THIS EVENING WITH THE AFTERNOON CU           
FIELD NOW LARGELY DISSIPATED. SKIES SHOULD REMAIN CLEAR OVERNIGHT...            
EXCEPT WHERE FOG AND STRATUS FORM TOWARD DAWN. ONLY POINT OF                    
CONTENTION WITH THE INHERITED FORECAST IS MIN TEMPS TONIGHT. BELIEVE            
WE/LL BE ABLE TO DROP A LITTLE LOWER THAN OBSERVED LAST NIGHT WITH              
BETTER RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS...I.E. LESS CLOUD COVER AND               
SLIGHTLY LOWER SURFACE DEWPOINTS. FULLY EXPECT A FEW MID 50S IN THE             
MORE SHELTERED VALLEY LOCATIONS AND WILL ADJUST MIN TEMP GRID TO                
REFLECT THIS. MAJORITY OF LOCATIONS WILL SETTLE AROUND 60                       
HOWEVER...SO WILL ELECT NOT TO UPDATE THE ZONES AT THIS TIME.                   
&&                                                                              
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                        
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
WJM/JJ                                                                          
</PRE></TT></td>   ky                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
354 PM EDT MON JUL 24 2006                                                      
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
MAIN FORECAST CONCERN IS THUNDERSTORM CHANCES THROUGH THE NEXT FEW              
DAYS AND ANY SEVERE WEATHER CONCERNS WITH THOSE.                                
CURRENT WEATHER...19Z WATER VAPOR LOOP AND RUC 500MB HEIGHT ANALYSIS            
STILL SHOW A RIDGE IN THE WESTERN U.S. AND A TROUGH IN THE EASTERN              
U.S....BUT THESE ARE A LOT LESS AMPLIFIED THAN THE PAST FEW DAYS.               
NONETHELESS...THERE IS STILL PLENTY OF ACTION. CURRENT SHRTWV OF                
INTEREST...AIDING THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTH HALF OF THE U.P.               
AND NORTHERN WISCONSIN. AT THE MOMENT...IS MOVING THROUGH LAKE                  
SUPERIOR. THIS SHRTWV IS REFLECTED AT THE SURFACE BY A WEAKENING                
COLD FRONT/TROUGH... STRETCHING FROM JUST SOUTH OF DULUTH TO                    
RHINELANDER AND NORTHEAST TO WHITEFISH POINT. THE COLD FRONT/TROUGH             
IS ALSO BEING ENHANCED BY LAKE BREEZES OFF OF LAKES MICHIGAN AND                
SUPERIOR DUE TO INLAND TEMPERATURES AWAY FROM CONVECTION WARMING                
INTO THE 80S. SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS HAVE PRODUCED HAIL ACROSS               
NORTHERN WISCONSIN. OTHER SHRTWVS...SOMEWHAT WEAKER THAN THE ONE                
MOVING THROUGH NOW...CAN BE SEEN OFF TO THE WEST TOO. THESE ARE OVER            
EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA...NE MONTANA...NORTH CENTRAL MONTANA AND NE                
WASHINGTON. NONE OF THESE HAVE ANY TRUE SURFACE REFLECTION OTHER                
THAN RESULTING IN BROAD LOW PRESSURE ACROSS MUCH OF THE NORTHERN                
PLAINS. ALSO TO NOTE...FAIRLY WARM AIR EXISTS ALOFT ACROSS MUCH OF              
THE NORTHERN U.S....WITH 850MB TEMPS ON THE 12Z RAOBS BETWEEN 19-23C            
FROM GREEN BAY WESTWARD INTO MONTANA. THIS WARM AIR ALOFT IS WHAT               
ALSO HELPED TEMPERATURES CLIMB INTO THE 80S.                                    
TONIGHT...UPPER LEVEL FLOW IS PROGGED TO TURN SLIGHTLY MORE ZONAL               
THROUGH THE COURSE OF THE NIGHT. SO ALTHOUGH THE COLD FRONT/TROUGH              
IS MAKING ITS WAY SOUTH THROUGH UPPER MICHIGAN...IT IS EXPECTED TO              
STALL PROBABLY IN THE VICINITY OF GREEN BAY THIS EVENING.                       
NONETHELESS...WITH THE FRONT MOVING OUT OF THE CWA...MUCH OF THE                
CONVECTION OCCURRING ACROSS SOUTHERN UPPER MICHIGAN WILL END THIS               
EVENING. MODELS THEN SHOW A SLIGHT DRIFT BACK TO THE NORTH WITH THE             
TROUGH OVERNIGHT...SO A CONCERN WOULD EXIST ABOUT ELEVATED                      
PRECIPITATION DEVELOPING. LOOKING AT 305-310K SURFACES...THERE IS               
SOME WEAK LIFT PRESENT...HOWEVER CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS ARE             
ON THE HIGH SIDE (150-200MB)...AT LEAST OVER UPPER MICHIGAN. IN                 
FACT...MODEL QPF FIELDS FROM THE NAM...GFS...13 KM EXPERIMENTAL RUC             
AND A LOCAL WRF RUN HERE ALL INDICATE DRY CONDITIONS. BETTER                    
ISENTROPIC LIFT WITH LOWER PRESSURE DEFICITS ARE IN WISCONSIN...SO              
SOME SHOWERS MAY POP UP OVERNIGHT IN WISCONSIN PERHAPS ALONG OR                 
SOUTH OF THE TROUGH AS THE GFS INDICATES. DECREASE WINDS TONIGHT                
COMBINED WITH SOME DECREASE IN CLOUD COVER SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES            
TO DROP TO THE DEWPOINTS. HAVE DECIDED TO INSERT SOME PATCHY FOG                
OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN U.P. DUE TO THE RAIN THAT              
HAS OCCURRED TODAY.                                                             
TUESDAY...WARM ADVECTION IS PROGGED TO CONTINUE DURING THE                      
MORNING...PUSHING THE SURFACE TROUGH BACK INTO THE CWA. THIS WARM               
ADVECTION MAY RESULT IN SOME ELEVATED PRECIPITATION IN THE MORNING              
AS THE GFS SUGGESTS...BUT CONFIDENCE IN THIS OCCURRING IS NOT HIGH              
GIVEN THAT THE NAM AND UKMET ARE DRY. NONETHELESS...AT LEAST SOME               
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ARE REQUIRED SINCE MODELS INDICATE THE SHRTWV                
OVER NE MONTANA MAY BE MOVING OVER. BETTER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND              
THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY IN THE INTERIOR...WILL COME IN THE                   
AFTERNOON AS TEMPERATURES HEAT UP AND LAKE BREEZES FORM. HAVE RAISED            
POPS TO 50 IN THE INTERIOR. LOOKS LIKE THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA WILL              
BE IN THE STABLE MARINE AIR SO HAVE REMOVE POPS FOR THERE IN THE                
AFTERNOON. AS FOR THE TEMPERATURES...MODELS SUGGEST 850MB TEMPS OF              
18-20C...SIMILAR TO TODAY. THEREFORE HIGHS SHOULD BE SIMILAR TOO.               
SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL LOOKS MARGINAL SINCE 0-6KM SHEAR IS ONLY               
15-20 KT (MAINLY PULSE STORMS). HOWEVER...WITH MLCAPE VALUES OF                 
1000-2000 J/KG AND WET BULB ZERO HEIGHTS REMAINING LOW (11000 FT                
WEST TO 9000 FT EAST)...SOME CONCERN EXISTS FOR HAIL. SPC DAY 2                 
OUTLOOK ONLY HAS 5 PERCENT PROBABILITIES OVER THE U.P. AND THIS                 
SEEMS REASONABLE.                                                               
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT...CONVECTION THROUGH THIS PERIOD             
IS HARD TO TIME AND FIGURE OUT AS MODELS ARE SUGGESTING NEARLY ZONAL            
FLOW FROM THE NORTHERN INTERMOUNTAIN STATES ACROSS INTO UPPER                   
MICHIGAN. THIS PATTERN WOULD FAVOR WEAK SHRTWVS CROSSING THE AREA               
AND ANY OF THEM COULD RESULT IN BRIEF LOW LEVEL JET INCREASES TO                
PRODUCE CONVECTION AT NIGHT...OR BRING COOLER AIR ALOFT DURING THE              
DAY WHICH WOULD COMBINE WITH LAKE BREEZES AND RESULT IN DIURNAL                 
AFTERNOON CONVECTION. BECAUSE OF THE UNCERTAINTY REGARDING TIMING OF            
THE SHRTWVS...HAVE DECIDED TO MAINTAIN A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND                  
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE PERIOD. DID KEEP POPS SLIGHTLY HIGHER                 
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING OF WEDNESDAY BECAUSE OF LAKE                   
BREEZES HELPING CONVECTION. FREEZING AND WET-BULB ZERO HEIGHTS ARE              
HIGHER DURING THIS PERIOD...SO THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT MAY NOT BE             
AS HIGH. LITTLE CHANGE IS PROGGED WITH REGARDS TO BOTH 850MB TEMPS              
AND DEWPOINTS...SO READINGS BOTH ON TEMPS AND DEWPOINTS SHOULD BE               
SIMILAR TO TUESDAY.                                                             
THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT...GFS/UKMET/ECMWF ALL SHOW A SHRTWV                
TROUGH DROPPING SOUTH OUT OF CENTRAL CANADA INTO THE GREAT LAKES                
REGION. THIS TROUGH WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH A SURFACE COLD                      
FRONT...EXPECTED OVER WESTERN MN THURSDAY MORNING AND MOVING ACROSS             
THE U.P. THURSDAY NIGHT. IT IS LIKELY MORE DIURNAL SHOWERS AND                  
THUNDERSTORMS WILL FORM ON THURSDAY ALONG LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARIES                
SINCE THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE RELATIVELY WEAK. WE SHOULD ALSO             
SEE SOME STORMS FIRE ALONG THE COLD FRONT...MOVING INTO THE CWA                 
THURSDAY NIGHT. THEREFORE CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS                  
PERSIST FOR UPPER MICHIGAN. 850MB TEMPS ARE AGAIN NOT EXPECTED TO BE            
ALL THAT DIFFERENT THAN THE PAST FEW DAYS...SO LITTLE CHANGE IS                 
EXPECTED REGARDING HIGH TEMPERATURES BETWEEN WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.            
RELATIVELY HIGH DEWPOINTS THURSDAY NIGHT WILL HELP KEEP LOW                     
TEMPERATURES UP...SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS FEW NIGHTS.                           
EXTENDED (FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)...MODEL AGREEMENT BETWEEN                      
OPERATIONAL MODELS AND 00Z GFS ENSEMBLES IS NOT AS GREAT TODAY...               
WITH VARYING DEGREES ON HOW MUCH TROUGHING DEVELOPS NEAR/ALONG THE              
PACIFIC NW COAST AND OVER SOUTHEAST CANADA INTO NEW ENGLAND. BOTH OF            
THESE FACTOR IN HOW MUCH RIDGING BUILDS TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES                 
REGION DURING THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. OVERALL MODELS ARE              
IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON FRIDAY...INDICATING A TROUGH DROPPING THROUGH              
WESTERN BRITISH COLUMBIA...RESULTING IN SOME RIDGING DOWNSTREAM IN              
SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA WHILE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO UPPER MICHIGAN             
AHEAD OF THIS AT THE SURFACE. AFTER FRIDAY...THE 00Z ECMWF BECOMES              
VERY AMPLIFIED WITH THE FLOW...DEVELOPING A 540 DAM LOW NEAR JAMES              
BAY BY 00Z SUNDAY. NO OTHER MODEL SHOWS THIS STRONG OF A TROUGH...              
NOR DOES ITS PREVIOUS RUN...SO HAVE CONSIDERED IT AN OUTLIER. NEW               
12Z ECMWF LOOKS MORE LIKE THE 00Z UKMET. PREFER A SOLUTION MORE                 
ALONG THE LINES OF THE 00Z UKMET/06Z GFS WHICH KEEPS UPPER MICHIGAN             
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE HIGH PRESSURE AREA AS THE RIDGE OVER                 
SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA IS PUSHED EAST SLIGHTLY. THIS IS SUPPORTED TOO             
BY THE 00Z GFS ENSEMBLES AND SOMEWHAT BY THE 00Z CANADIAN. SO A DRY             
WEATHER FORECAST INTO SATURDAY STILL SEEMS GOOD.                                
THE UPPER TROUGH NEAR/OVER THE PACIFIC NW IS THEN SHOWN BY MOST                 
MODELS TO BECOME LESS AMPLIFIED...AND BECOME A MORE BROAD TROUGH                
FROM THE GULF OF ALASKA INTO SW CANADA. THIS WILL RESULT IN PUSHING             
RIDGING OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS/UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO THE              
GREAT LAKES...WITH TROUGHING FURTHER DOWNSTREAM IN THE CANADIAN                 
MARITIMES. AS THIS RIDGE BUILDS TOWARDS UPPER MICHIGAN...WARM                   
ADVECTION MAY RESULT IN CLUSTERS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVING            
OUT OF NORTHERN MINNESOTA INTO UPPER MICHIGAN BOTH SUNDAY AND                   
MONDAY...ASSUMING WE STAY ON THE EDGE OF THE CAP WHICH SHOULD BE                
FIRMLY IN PLACE ACROSS MUCH OF THE PLAINS. SPC DAY 4-8 OUTLOOK                  
MAINTAINS A RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER FOR THE SUNDAY TIMEFRAME. 06Z               
GFS INDICATES SOME PRETTY WARM AIR HEADING TOWARDS THE CWA...WITH               
850MB TEMPS OF 18-20C ON SUNDAY AND AROUND 20C FOR MONDAY. IF PLENTY            
OF SUNSHINE CAN OCCUR...HIGHS WOULD TOP OUT AROUND 90 AWAY FROM LAKE            
MICHIGAN. HOWEVER...CONVECTION CHANCES AND UNCERTAINTY THAT FAR OUT             
RESULTS IN KEEPING TEMPERATURES LOWER THAN THAT...BUT STILL ABOVE               
NORMAL.                                                                         
&&                                                                              
.MQT...WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
AJ                                                                              
</PRE></TT></td>   mi                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY                                             
306 PM EDT MON JUL 24 2006                                                      
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES REGION AND                     
NORTHEAST COASTLINE...WITH A WEAK RIDGE OVERHEAD. A SHORTWAVE IS                
MOVING INTO LOWER MI...BUT CONVECTION IS HAVING A HARD TIME                     
GETTING GOING AS SHORTWAVE MOVES INTO THE RIDGE.  OUT WEST...A LARGE FOUR       
CORNERS HIGH CAN BE FOUND IN THE WESTERN US WITH LOTS OF MOISTURE               
AND DAILY CONVECTION. SEVERAL SHORTWAVES ARE ROTATING AROUND THIS               
HIGH...WITH SOME FEATURES OF INTEREST MOVING TOWARD THE DAKOTAS                 
AND MONTANA.  THESE WILL BE POSSIBLE PLAYERS FOR WEDNESDAY AND                  
THURSDAY. AT THE SURFACE...A RIDGE IS OVERHEAD WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW              
UPSTREAM...ALTHOUGH NOT CARRYING MUCH MOISTURE AT THIS TIME AS                  
DEWPOINTS IN THE OHIO VALLEY ARE NOT RESPONDING TOO MUCH.                       
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...                                       
TONIGHT...SHORTWAVE UPSTREAM IN MI WILL MOSTLY PASS BY TO OUR NORTH.            
CURRENTLY...CONVECTION STRUGGLING IN MI THIS AFTERNOON AS SHORTWAVE             
MOVES INTO RIDGE. NAM-WRF TRIES TO REGENERATE SOME PRECIP LATER                 
THIS AFTERNOON...BUT IT MAY BE A BIT OVERDONE AS ITS LOW LEVEL JET              
APPEARS TOO STRONG WHEN COMPARED TO RUC ANALYSIS DATA.                          
REGARDLESS...PRECIP AMOUNTS ARE PRETTY LOW...ONLY A FEW HUNDREDTHS              
TO A TENTH OR SO IN SOUTHERN ONTARIO BY 12Z TUESDAY. PRECIP MAY                 
SKIRT THE NORTH SIDE OF LAKE ONTARIO OVERNIGHT. WILL LEAVE ALL                  
AREAS DRY WITH CLOUDS CLOSER TO LAKE ONTARIO...AND PATCHY FOG LATE              
IN THE VALLEY AREAS WITHIN THE SOUTHERN TIER IN FINGER LAKES                    
REGIONS.                                                                        
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...NO REAL CHANGE TO FORECAST...WITH A                  
GENERAL BROADBRUSH OF A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND                                   
THUNDERSTORMS...HIGHEST OVER THE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION ON TUESDAY.        
INITIALLY...WILL HAVE TO DEAL WITH A SAGGING TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER              
THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES REGION. MODELS DO NOT APPEAR TO HAVE A                 
GOOD HANDLE ON SHORTWAVE MOVING INTO WI AT THIS TIME...AND THEY                 
WASH OUT A FEW VORT CENTERS READILY SEEN IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY                 
NEAR WESTERN IL AND OVER LAKE MICHIGAN.                                         
ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...SHORTWAVE ENERGY CURRENTLY NEAR THE DAKOTAS         
WILL BE APPROACHING. BOTH OPERATIONAL MODELS PICK UP ON THIS TO                 
SOME DEGREE SO FORECAST CONFIDENCE EVER SO SLIGHTLY HIGHER. WILL                
BUMP PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION UP FROM ABOUT 30 PERCENT IN                   
WESTERN NY TUESDAY TO A WHOPPING 40 PERCENT ON WEDNESDAY. MORE                  
SHORTWAVES FOR THURSDAY FOR A CONTINUED CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION                 
AND THUNDERSTORMS. CONFIDENCE LOW ON TIMING ANY FEATURES.                       
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...                                   
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA ON FRIDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL                 
TROUGH MOVES THROUGH...BUT IT MAY NEVER QUITE GET THROUGH WESTERN NY.           
THERE IS VERY LITTLE EVIDENCE OF IT ALOFT BY FRIDAY NIGHT. THE                  
FOUR CORNERS HIGH WILL MOVE INTO THE PLAINS STATES OVER THE                     
WEEKEND.  WILL FOLLOW HPC GUIDANCE FOR THE EXTENDED...ONLY NOTING               
THAT THE GFS DOES HAVE A FEW NICE SHORTWAVES MOVING OVER THE RIDGE              
ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THESE WOULD BE MCS-LIKE EVENTS. OF                        
COURSE...ITS TOO FAR OUT TO TIME AND PLACE SUCH EVENTS.                         
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. HIGH PRESSURE               
PRIDED ACROSS THE AREA WILL KEEP FAIR WEATHER ACROSS THE AREA                   
THROUGH THIS EVENING. ANY DIURNAL CUMULUS WILL DISSIPATE THIS                   
EVENING. WARM AIR ADVECTION MID AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUDINESS ACROSS               
THE CENTRAL AND UPPER GREAT LAKES WILL TRANSLATE EASTWARD AND SPREAD            
OVER THE AREA TONIGHT. OPERATIONAL MODELS SUGGESTING A FEW SHOWERS              
MAY REACH THE AREA BY THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD AS THE SHORTWAVE                
PRODUCING CONVECTION ACROSS WESTERN GREAT LAKES WEAKEN ACROSS NEW               
YORK STATE TUESDAY MORNING. THIS HAS BEEN SUGGESTING AT ALL TAF                 
SITES BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.                                                 
&&                                                                              
.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
NY...NONE.                                                                      
MARINE...NONE.                                                                  
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SYNOPSIS...ZAFF                                                                 
SHORT TERM...ZAFF                                                               
LONG TERM...ZAFF                                                                
AVIATION...TMA                                                                  
</PRE></TT></td>   ny                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI                                  
302 PM CDT MON JUL 24 2006                                                      
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
FORECAST DISCUSSION REMAINS CENTERED ON ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN                  
THROUGH MID WEEK.                                                               
IN THE SHORT TERM...FRONTAL BOUNDARY AS ADVERTISED BY NGM/WRF-                  
NAM/GFS/RUC PROGS HAS SETTLED ACROSS NORTHERN WISCONSIN.                        
WEATHER PATTERN EVOLUTION THROUGH WEDNESDAY BY PROGS WILL RESULT                
IN AN ACTIVE...WET AND UNSETTLED PERIOD OVER CWA. POTENTIAL EXISTS              
FOR MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS CWA THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT               
ALONG WITH PERIODS OF SEVERE WEATHER. POSITION OF FRONTAL BOUNDARY              
HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON STRENGTH AND DURATION OF CONVECTION ALONG IT.               
FRONT BECOMES DIFFUSE TUESDAY AS PROGGED CONVECTION YIELDS                      
DIFFERING PRESSURE PATTERNS. HOWEVER STEADY STREAM OF LOW LEVEL                 
MOIST WARM AND UNSTABLE AIR WILL CONTINUE TO FEED INTO CWA DESPITE              
POSITION OF BOUNDARY AND AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF CONVECTION IS                    
EXPECTED. HAVE BOOSTED RAIN CHANCES THROUGH WEDNESDAY BUT UNABLE                
TO FORECAST ANY EXTENDED PERIODS WHEN CONVECTION WOULD BE ABSENT                
LONG ENOUGH TO REMOVE RAIN CHANCES FROM FORECAST.                               
IN THE LONG TERM...GFS SHOWING SIGNS OF BACKING OFF ON DRY WEEKEND              
AS PREVIOUSLY PROGGED HIGH PRESSURE QUITE WEAK WITH A STRONG LOW                
PRESSURE DEVELOPING OVER PLAINS STATES. THIS MAINTAINS MOIST                    
SOUTHERLY FLOW AND COULD RESULT IN SCATTERED CONVECTION. WILL                   
AWAIT FURTHER PROG RUNS BEFORE CHANGING FORECAST FOR NOW.                       
&&                                                                              
.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
NONE.                                                                           
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
ZAJDEL                                                                          
</PRE></TT></td>   wi