AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO                                      
845 PM MST SAT DEC 13 2008                                                      
.830PM UPDATE...WIDESPREAD SNOWFALL OCCURRING NORTH OF THE ROAN                 
TAVAPUTS WITH HIGHWAY 40 CLOSED FOR AWHILE THIS EVENING...HIGHWAY               
13 REPORTED CLOSED AT 8PM BETWEEN RIFLE AND MEEKER. 6 INCHES                    
REPORTED IN MEEKER AT 8PM. VERNAL HAS YET TO REPORT ANY SNOWFALL...             
BUT ENHANCEMENT IS APPROACHING THE UINTA BASIN. THE FRONT IS SLOW TO            
PUSH SOUTH OF THE ROAN-TAVAPUTS...SURPRISING CONSIDERING ITS STRENGTH           
AND DEPTH. FRONT PASSED GRAND JUNCTION AT 730 WITH SNOW STARTING AT             
830. RIFLE TOO HAD A BIT OF DELAY BUT THEN G52MPH AND SNOW OCCURRED             
AT 820. THE COLD FRONT IS APPROACHING GATEWAY TO MONTROSE WITH                  
LIGHTNING STRIKES OBSERVED SOUTH OF UNAWEEP CANYON. FRONTOGENETICAL             
FORCING IN THE 00Z RUC INDICATES THE FRONT WILL ADVANCE INTO SE UTAH            
FASTER OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS WITH SLOWER PROGRESSION IN NW                    
COLORADO. BY MIDNIGHT IT WILL BE ORIENTED FROM KREMMLING SW TO THE NW           
SAN JUAN MTNS. THEN IT IS PROGGED TO PUSH QUICKLY EAST BY 3AM WITH              
FRONTAL PASSAGE IN DURANGO-PAGOSA BY 5-6AM. MOST VALLEY LOCATIONS               
WILL HAVE ONLY LIGHT PRECIP UNTIL FRONTAL PASSAGE WHILE MOST MTNS               
WILL ACCUMULATE SNOW THROUGHOUT TONIGHT. WILL UPDATE FORECAST TO                
TRY TO REFLECT THIS SITUATION.                                                  
&&                                                                              
...MAJOR WINTER STORM WILL IMPACT THE REGION THROUGH SUNDAY...                  
...ANOTHER STRONG STORM ARRIVES MONDAY AFTERNOON...                             
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...                                         
SNOW MACHINE IS TURNING ON THE GUNS ACROSS WESTERN COLORADO AND                 
EASTERN UTAH THIS AFTERNOON AS A STRONG PACIFIC STORM DROPS ACROSS              
THE GREAT BASIN. FAIRLY SIGNIFICANT WARM-UP OUT AHEAD OF THE COLD               
FRONT THIS AFTERNOON...WITH SEVERAL OF THE LOWER VALLEYS TOPPING 50             
DEGREES. THIS WILL RESULT IN SOME AREAS OF RAIN UNTIL THE COLDER AIR            
ARRIVES WITH THE FRONT LATER THE EVENING.                                       
EXPECT PRECIPITATION TO CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND                    
INTENSITY THIS EVENING...WITH THE ENTIRE CWA BECOMING ALL SNOW BY               
10 PM.  STRONG H3 JET WILL CONTINUE TO DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE                    
FORECAST AREA AS ENERGY DIVES INTO THE GREAT BASIN FROM THE                     
PACNW. THIS WILL KEEP STRONG DYNAMIC FORCING OVER THE REGION                    
TONIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY. MAIN TROUGH SLIDES THROUGH TONIGHT WITH               
VERY COLD AIRMASS SETTLING IN. CONDITIONS STABILIZE SOMEWHAT                    
DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY...SO INTENSITY OF SNOWFALL WILL DECREASE               
ALONG WITH COVERAGE DISSIPATING FROM WEST TO EAST AS THE                        
AFTERNOON ROLLS ON. CURRENT HIGHLIGHTS REMAIN WELL PLACED AND                   
AMOUNTS REMAIN REASONABLE...SO NO MAJOR ADJUSTMENTS FOR THIS STORM              
WITH MOUNTAINS AMOUNTS FROM 1 TO 3 FEET AND VALLEYS RANGING FROM 2              
TO 12 INCHES.  WILL MAKE SPECIAL NOTE THAT SEVERAL OF OUR SPOTTERS              
HAVE CALLED IN TODAY COMMENTING ABOUT PRESSURE READINGS BEING SOME              
OF THE LOWEST THEY HAVE RECORDED...WHICH FURTHER EMPHASIZES THE                 
STRENGTH OF THE APPROACHING SYSTEM.                                             
SNOW IS EXPECTED TO TAPER OFF ENOUGH SUNDAY NIGHT WITH ENOUGH                   
BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER TO RESULT IN THE COLDEST NIGHT OF THE                 
SEASON SO FAR. THIS WILL ALSO ALLOW US TO DROP WINTER HIGHLIGHTS AS             
WE BRACE FOR THE NEXT SYSTEM SCHEDULED TO ROLL IN MONDAY AFTERNOON.             
THIS NEXT SYSTEM BEING ACCOMPANIED BY A 160+ KT JET WITH DEEP                   
PACIFIC MOISTURE STREAMING INTO THE AREA. TARGETED AREA WILL BE OVER            
THE SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS AND CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO INCREASE WITH                
THIS SOLUTION AS THE MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT. AS A RESULT...            
HAVE DECIDED TO ISSUE A WINTER STORM WATCH FOR THE SOUTHERN                     
MOUNTAINS STARTING MONDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING THROUGH TUESDAY              
AFTERNOON.  TEMPERATURES REMAIN COLD THROUGH THE PERIOD.                        
.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...                                   
UNSETTLED PATTERN THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. UPPER LEVEL BROAD EXTENDS               
OVER THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL ROCKIES MONDAY NIGHT. SHORTWAVE TRACKS            
THROUGH THE FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH STRONG JET OF 170KTS AT 250 MB OVER            
THE FOUR CORNERS REGION ACCORDING TO THE GFS. SFC WINDS WILL INCREASE           
AS THE JET MOVES OVERHEAD AND CAUSE BLOWING SNOW ESPECIALLY FOR THE             
SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL MOUNTAINS OF WESTERN COLORADO AND SOUTHEASTERN             
MOUNTAINS OF UTAH. FLOW TURNS TO THE SOUTHWEST MONDAY NIGHT HELPING             
TO BRING ADDITIONAL MOISTURE AS THE LOW PINCHES OFF. THE NORTHERN               
PORTION EXITS EAST OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES BY EARLY WED. THE SOUTHERN           
PORTION CUTS OFF AND DIGS SOUTHWEST OVER THE GREAT BASIN AND THEN OUT           
ALONG THE CA COAST. THIS LOW WILL REVISIT THE FOUR CORNERS REGION               
AGAIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. INCREASED POPS DURING THIS TIME            
PERIOD ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH IN THE TIMING. SHOWERS LINGER               
OVER THE MOUNTAINS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS UPPER LEVEL GRADIENT                  
REMAINS TIGHT AND A FEW WEAK EMBEDDED DISTURBANCES ARE NOTED IN THE             
MODELS.                                                                         
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
EXPECT MODERATE TO SEVERE TURBULENCE THROUGH TONIGHT AS 10,000 FOOT             
WINDS CONTINUE IN THE 50 TO 60 KNOT RANGE. EXPECT FAIRLY                        
WIDESPREAD IFR CIGS AND VSBYS THROUGHOUT THE REGION BY 03Z                      
THIS EVENING...WITH LITTLE IMPROVING UNTIL MIDDAY SUNDAY.  EXPECT               
SOME IMPROVEMENT IN CEILINGS AND VSBYS OVER EASTERN UTAH AND                    
EXTREME WESTERN COLORADO SUNDAY AFTERNOON. ANOTHER STRONG STORM                 
MOVES INTO THE REGION ON MONDAY...BRINGING MORE SNOW AND WIND TO THE            
REGION.                                                                         
&&                                                                              
.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
.CO...WINTER STORM WARNING THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON...MOUNTAIN                  
       ZONES 3/4/9/10/12/13/17/18/19 AND VALLEY ZONES 2/5.                      
      WINTER STORM WARNING THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON FOR THE                     
       INTERSTATE-70 CORRIDOR EAST OF NEW CASTLE...AND THE                      
       UPPER GUNNISON VALLEY...ZONES 8 AND 14.                                  
      WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON FOR THE                  
       LOWER COLORADO VALLEYS...ZONES 1/6/7/11/20/21/22.                        
      WINTER STORM WATCH MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON             
       FOR THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS...ZONES                          
       9/12/17/18/19.                                                           
.UT...WINTER STORM WARNING THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON...MOUNTAIN                  
       ZONES 23/25 AND 28.                                                      
      WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON FOR THE                  
       EASTERN UINTA BASIN...ZONE 24.                                           
      WINTER STORM WATCH MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON             
       FOR THE LA SAL AND ABAJO MOUNTAINS...ZONE 28.                            
$$                                                                              
UPDATE.........JOE                                                              
SHORT TERM.....JDC                                                              
LONG TERM......AS                                                               
AVIATION.......JDC                                                              
</pre> co                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO                                              
904 AM MST SAT DEC 13 2008                                                      
.UPDATE...                                                                      
QUICK UPDATE TO THE FORECAST GRIDS TO START ALL HIGHLIGHTS RIGHT                
AWAY INSTEAD OF WAITING TO 18Z. 5 TO 8 INCHES OF SNOW HAS ALREADY               
BEEN REPORTED AT WOLF CREEK AND MONARCH SKI AREAS.                              
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 436 AM MST SAT DEC 13 2008/                         
SHORT TERM...                                                                   
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)                                                             
..COMPLEX WEATHER PATTERN TODAY AND TONIGHT...                                  
..HIGH RISK OF HAZARDOUS WINTER WEATHER CONTINENTAL DIVIDE...                   
..WINDY TO VERY WINDY MUCH OF SOUTHERN CO TODAY...                              
CURRENTLY...PUB RADAR SHOWING "WIND SIGNATURE" ALONG THE LEE OF THE             
RAMPART RANGE...PIKES PEAK...WET MOUNTAINS...AND SOUTHERN SANGRE DE             
CRISTO MOUNTAINS. MOUNTAIN WAVE WIND EVENT BEGINNING TO TAKE                    
SHAPE...THE BIGGEST QUESTION IS THE SEVERITY. SURFACE WINDS HAVE                
BEEN GUSTING TO 45-55KT ALONG THE RAMPART RANGE PER AIR FORCE                   
ACADEMY SENSORS...BUT AIR FORCE ACADEMY AIRPORT IS LIGHT EASTERLY               
ALONG WITH THE COLORADO SPRINGS AIRPORT. MOUNTAIN WAVE ROTOR LIKELY             
GIVEN THE EASTERLY WINDS THAT DEVELOP FROM THE AIR FORCE ACADEMY AND            
COLORADO SPRINGS AIRPORT. MEANWHILE...FROM LA VETA PASS TO                      
WALSENBURG(GAP FLOW) INCLUDING THE LEE OF THE SOUTHERN SANGRE DE                
CRISTO MOUNTAINS(MOUNTAIN WAVE)...WINDS HAVE BEEN GUSTING TO                    
30-40KTS.  FURTHERMORE...THE HIGH TERRAIN MONARCH AWOS SENSOR HAS               
BEEN SUSTAINED AROUND 40KTS AND GUSTING 60KTS. QUITE THE TEMPERATURE            
CONTRAST IN THE WINDY AND NON-WINDY AREAS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS PUEBLO            
COUNTY...MID 20S AT PUEBLO AIRPORT AND 40S NEAR THE MOUNTAINS.  NOT             
MUCH SNOW ACROSS WESTERN CO...BUT THAT WILL LIKELY SOON CHANGE.                 
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC MODEL UPPER AIR ANALYSES SHOWED THE NEXT            
UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK AND ASSOCIATED TROUGHS/MOISTURE DRIVING                  
THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN...AND TAKING AIR ON CO EARLY THIS MORNING.              
TODAY...WELL ADVERTISED UPPER LEVEL 100-140KTS JET STREAK TO MOVE               
INTO CO LATER TODAY. SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP ACROSS            
SOUTHEASTERN WY WITH A LEE SIDE TROUGH EXTENDING ACROSS EASTERN CO              
PLAINS. THE BULLSEYE FOR QPF/SNOW AMOUNTS/POPS APPEARS TO BE AROUND             
THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE GIVEN THE COMBINATION OF SYNOPTIC SCALE                  
ASCENT AND FAVORED WEST-SOUTHWEST OROGRAPHIC FLOW LATER THIS                    
AFTERNOON. SNOW...HEAVY AT TIMES...AND BLOWING SNOW WILL DEVELOP                
ACROSS THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE THIS AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE...EAST OF               
THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE...WINDY TO VERY WINDY CONDITIONS WILL                    
PROBABLY BE THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN TODAY. HAVE WIND GUSTS JUST               
BELOW WARNING CRITERIA FOR THE MOUNTAINS AND NON-MOUNTAINS GENERALLY            
ALONG AND WEST OF THE I-25 CORRIDOR. THERE IS A LOT OF WIND ALOFT               
AND WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW WIND GUSTS TO AROUND 50KTS              
ACROSS THE SAN LUIS VALLEY...MOUNTAIN VALLEYS...AND WEST OF THE                 
I-25. WARMER TEMPERATURES STILL LOOK ON TARGET FOR TODAY GIVEN THE              
INCREASED WIND SPEEDS.                                                          
TONIGHT...RELATIVELY STRONG UPPER LEVEL JET STREAM TO REMAIN OVER               
MUCH OF CO. WINDY TO VERY WINDY CONDITIONS LIKELY ACROSS MUCH OF                
SOUTHERN CO TONIGHT...WHICH MAKES THE LOW TEMPERATURE FORECAST VERY             
PROBLEMATIC. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY OCCUR AROUND 14Z/15Z                  
TOMORROW MORNING...WHICH COULD TURN OUT TO BE TOMORROW`S HIGH                   
TEMPERATURES. THUS...RELATIVELY WARM TEMPERATURES MAY ACTUALLY OCCUR            
MUCH OF THE NIGHT TONIGHT ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN CO. PERIODS OF SNOW               
AND AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW WILL CONTINUE AROUND THE CONTINENTAL                  
DIVIDE. WILL ADD A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR ZONES 61/62/63/64/67.            
MODIFIED ARCTIC AIR MASS TO DROP INTO THE PALMER DIVIDE AND EAST                
CENTRAL CO AROUND 09Z-12Z/14. GFS HAS A LITTLE MORE QPF LATE TONIGHT            
ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS/HIGH VALLEYS INTO THE PALMER DIVIDE...SO WILL              
ADJUST FORECAST BASED ON THIS AND BOU`S ADJUSTMENTS FOR A FASTER                
SYSTEM. 17                                                                      
LONG TERM...                                                                    
(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)                                                         
HEAVY SNOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST SUNDAY MORNING ACROSS                 
THE WESTERN MTNS/HIGH VALLEYS AS DYNAMICS ASSOC WITH UPPER JET                  
MOVING ACROSS NRN NM/SRN CO MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. LAPSE RATES                  
STILL FAIRLY STEEP ACROSS THE MTS AND EXPECT CAA TO CONTINUE                    
THROUGH THE DAY. BY AFTN...BEST DYNAMICS WILL BE MOVING INTO THE                
CENTRAL PLAINS...THOUGH THERE WILL STILL BE ENOUGH MOISTURE PINNED              
UP ALONG THE CONTDVD IN WESTERLY OROGRAPHIC FLOW TO KEEP HIGHER                 
MTS ALONG THE CONTDVD SOCKED IN ALL DAY. ATTENTION TURNS TOWARDS                
ARCTIC FRONT WHICH WILL SURGE THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS EARLY                
SUNDAY MORNING. IN FACT...HIGH TEMPS WILL LIKELY BE THE SAME AS                 
THE LOW TEMPS FROM THE NIGHT BEFORE (OCCURRING AROUND 15Z) WITH                 
TEMPS FALLING THROUGH THE AFTN. C51ENGE WILL BE SNOW POTENTIAL                  
ACROSS THE PLAINS. FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING DURING THE MORNING                   
SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO PRODUCE SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SNOW SHOWERS              
ACROSS THE SE PLAINS...WITH BEST POTENTIAL LINGERING ALONG THE                  
LOWER EASTERN SLOPES OF THE SE MTS/ADJACENT PLAINS IN S51OW POST                
FRONTAL UPSLOPE LAYER. FOR NOW...DO NOT THINK SNOWFALL WILL BE                  
PARTICULARLY HEAVY ACROSS THE EASTERN MTS/ADJACENT PLAINS AS                    
ISENTROPIC ANALYSIS SUGGESTS NEUTRAL BECOMING DOWNGLIDE BY THE                  
AFTERNOON. HOWEVER THERE IS SOME INSTABILITY AND A BRIEF SHOT OF                
DYNAMICS IN THE MORNING AND WITH MODEL SOUNDINGS SATURATED THROUGH              
THE FAVORABLE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONES -12 TO -18C RANGE...A FEW                  
INCHES OF FLUFFY SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY UNDER THE                   
HEAVIER SNOW BANDS. HAVE BUMPED UP POPS INTO THE LIKELY CATEGORY                
FOR THE EASTERN MTS/ADJACENT I-25 CORRIDOR. GUSTY NORTH WINDS                   
BEHIND THE FRONT WILL MAKE FOR A RAW DAY ACROSS ALL OF THE SE                   
PLAINS WITH WINTER MAKING A RATHER BRUTAL RE-APPEARANCE.                        
TROF RELOADS IN THE WEST AS MORE ENERGY DROPS SOUTH OUT OF CANADA.              
THIS KEEPS COLD AND UNSETTLED CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA FOR                    
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. NEXT PIECE OF ENERGY LIFTS OUT OF THE              
WESTERN US MEAN TROF LATE MONDAY AFTN/MONDAY NIGHT WITH SNOW                    
INTENSIFYING ACROSS THE WRN MTS ONCE AGAIN. ANTICIPATE THAT WE                  
WILL NEED ANOTHER WINTER STORM WATCH FOR MONDAY AFTN/MONDAY NIGHT               
ACROSS THE WESTERN MTS. MID LVL FLOW TURNS MORE SOUTHERLY AS UPPER              
JET APPROACHES MONDAY NIGHT AND SE PLAINS COMES UNDER A PERIOD OF               
ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE. THIS WILL SPREAD ANOTHER ROUND OF SNOW ACROSS               
THE EASTERN PLAINS MON NIGHT. WINDOW FOR SNOWFALL LOOKS FAIRLY BRIEF AS         
ENERGY SHOOTS OFF INT THE CENTRAL PLAINS BY EARLY TUES                          
MORNING...SO NOT EXPECTING A HEAVY SNOW EVENT...BUT AGAIN WITH                  
FAVORABLE TEMPS IN THE SATURATED LAYER...COULD SEE A COUPLE INCHES              
OF FLUFFY SNOW ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE ADJACENT PLAINS MONDAY                    
NIGHT.                                                                          
UPPER JET AXIS SHIFTS NORTHWARD INTO CEN CO ON TUES WITH GFS                    
SUGGESTING FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL LIFT BACK NORTHWARD DURING THE                 
DAY. SRN I-25 CORRIDOR COULD WARM BACK UP BUT THINK THE COLD AIR                
ACROSS THE PLAINS WILL HAVE A TOUGHER TIME ERODING BACK                         
NORTH...EVEN BENEATH STRONG WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. WILL KEEP TEMP GRIDS           
BELOW GUIDANCE VALUES FOR NOW.                                                  
UNSETTLED CONDITIONS CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS BOTH                      
GFS/ECMWF KEEP TROF OVER THE WRN US. GFS IS QUICKEST TO WEAKEN THE              
TROF AND MOVE IT ACROSS THE AREA WED NIGHT...WHILE ECMWF HANGS ENERGY           
BACK OVER THE GREAT BASIN BEFORE MOVING IT ACROSS THE AREA ON                   
THURSDAY. HOWEVER BOTH MODELS SUGGEST A TRANSITION TO WESTERLY                  
FLOW BY NEXT WEEKEND WHICH SHOULD MEAN A TREND TOWARDS DRIER AND                
WARMER CONDITIONS WITH PERIODIC LIGHT SNOWS POSSIBLE ALONG THE                  
CONTDVD REGION. -KT                                                             
AVIATION...                                                                     
PER SHORT TERM DISCUSSION...WINDY TO VERY WINDY CONDITIONS WILL                 
LIKELY DEVELOP FOR ALL TERMINAL FORECAST POINTS LATER THIS MORNING              
AND AFTERNOON. APPARENT ROTOR WILL BE AROUND KCOS THIS MORNING WITH             
THE WIND EXTREMELY VARIABLE SWITCHING FROM EASTERLY TO PERIOD                   
WESTERLY GUSTY WINDS BACK TO EASTERLY. 17                                       
&&                                                                              
.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM MST SUNDAY FOR COZ059-061>064-               
067.                                                                            
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 5 PM MST SUNDAY FOR COZ058-060-066-                  
068.                                                                            
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
27/10                                                                           
</pre> co                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO                                              
436 AM MST SAT DEC 13 2008                                                      
.SHORT TERM...                                                                  
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)                                                             
...COMPLEX WEATHER PATTERN TODAY AND TONIGHT...                                 
...HIGH RISK OF HAZARDOUS WINTER WEATHER CONTINENTAL DIVIDE...                  
...WINDY TO VERY WINDY MUCH OF SOUTHERN CO TODAY...                             
CURRENTLY...PUB RADAR SHOWING "WIND SIGNATURE" ALONG THE LEE OF THE             
RAMPART RANGE...PIKES PEAK...WET MOUNTAINS...AND SOUTHERN SANGRE DE             
CRISTO MOUNTAINS. MOUNTAIN WAVE WIND EVENT BEGINNING TO TAKE                    
SHAPE...THE BIGGEST QUESTION IS THE SEVERITY. SURFACE WINDS HAVE                
BEEN GUSTING TO 45-55KT ALONG THE RAMPART RANGE PER AIR FORCE                   
ACADEMY SENSORS...BUT AIR FORCE ACADEMY AIRPORT IS LIGHT EASTERLY               
ALONG WITH THE COLORADO SPRINGS AIRPORT. MOUNTAIN WAVE ROTOR LIKELY             
GIVEN THE EASTERLY WINDS THAT DEVELOP FROM THE AIR FORCE ACADEMY AND            
COLORADO SPRINGS AIRPORT. MEANWHILE...FROM LA VETA PASS TO                      
WALSENBURG(GAP FLOW) INCLUDING THE LEE OF THE SOUTHERN SANGRE DE                
CRISTO MOUNTAINS(MOUNTAIN WAVE)...WINDS HAVE BEEN GUSTING TO                    
30-40KTS.  FURTHERMORE...THE HIGH TERRAIN MONARCH AWOS SENSOR HAS               
BEEN SUSTAINED AROUND 40KTS AND GUSTING 60KTS. QUITE THE TEMPERATURE            
CONTRAST IN THE WINDY AND NON-WINDY AREAS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS PUEBLO            
COUNTY...MID 20S AT PUEBLO AIRPORT AND 40S NEAR THE MOUNTAINS.  NOT             
MUCH SNOW ACROSS WESTERN CO...BUT THAT WILL LIKELY SOON CHANGE.                 
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC MODEL UPPER AIR ANALYSES SHOWED THE NEXT            
UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK AND ASSOCIATED TROUGHS/MOISTURE DRIVING                  
THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN...AND TAKING AIR ON CO EARLY THIS MORNING.              
TODAY...WELL ADVERTISED UPPER LEVEL 100-140KTS JET STREAK TO MOVE               
INTO CO LATER TODAY. SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP ACROSS            
SOUTHEASTERN WY WITH A LEE SIDE TROUGH EXTENDING ACROSS EASTERN CO              
PLAINS. THE BULLSEYE FOR QPF/SNOW AMOUNTS/POPS APPEARS TO BE AROUND             
THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE GIVEN THE COMBINATION OF SYNOPTIC SCALE                  
ASCENT AND FAVORED WEST-SOUTHWEST OROGRAPHIC FLOW LATER THIS                    
AFTERNOON. SNOW...HEAVY AT TIMES...AND BLOWING SNOW WILL DEVELOP                
ACROSS THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE THIS AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE...EAST OF               
THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE...WINDY TO VERY WINDY CONDITIONS WILL                    
PROBABLY BE THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN TODAY. HAVE WIND GUSTS JUST               
BELOW WARNING CRITERIA FOR THE MOUNTAINS AND NON-MOUNTAINS GENERALLY            
ALONG AND WEST OF THE I-25 CORRIDOR. THERE IS A LOT OF WIND ALOFT               
AND WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW WIND GUSTS TO AROUND 50KTS              
ACROSS THE SAN LUIS VALLEY...MOUNTAIN VALLEYS...AND WEST OF THE                 
I-25. WARMER TEMPERATURES STILL LOOK ON TARGET FOR TODAY GIVEN THE              
INCREASED WIND SPEEDS.                                                          
TONIGHT...RELATIVELY STRONG UPPER LEVEL JET STREAM TO REMAIN OVER               
MUCH OF CO. WINDY TO VERY WINDY CONDITIONS LIKELY ACROSS MUCH OF                
SOUTHERN CO TONIGHT...WHICH MAKES THE LOW TEMPERATURE FORECAST VERY             
PROBLEMATIC. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY OCCUR AROUND 14Z/15Z                  
TOMORROW MORNING...WHICH COULD TURN OUT TO BE TOMORROW`S HIGH                   
TEMPERATURES. THUS...RELATIVELY WARM TEMPERATURES MAY ACTUALLY OCCUR            
MUCH OF THE NIGHT TONIGHT ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN CO. PERIODS OF SNOW               
AND AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW WILL CONTINUE AROUND THE CONTINENTAL                  
DIVIDE. WILL ADD A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR ZONES 61/62/63/64/67.            
MODIFIED ARCTIC AIR MASS TO DROP INTO THE PALMER DIVIDE AND EAST                
CENTRAL CO AROUND 09Z-12Z/14. GFS HAS A LITTLE MORE QPF LATE TONIGHT            
ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS/HIGH VALLEYS INTO THE PALMER DIVIDE...SO WILL              
ADJUST FORECAST BASED ON THIS AND BOU`S ADJUSTMENTS FOR A FASTER                
SYSTEM. METZE                                                                   
.LONG TERM...                                                                   
(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)                                                         
HEAVY SNOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST SUNDAY MORNING ACROSS                 
THE WESTERN MTNS/HIGH VALLEYS AS DYNAMICS ASSOC WITH UPPER JET                  
MOVING ACROSS NRN NM/SRN CO MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. LAPSE RATES                  
STILL FAIRLY STEEP ACROSS THE MTS AND EXPECT CAA TO CONTINUE                    
THROUGH THE DAY. BY AFTN...BEST DYNAMICS WILL BE MOVING INTO THE                
CENTRAL PLAINS...THOUGH THERE WILL STILL BE ENOUGH MOISTURE PINNED              
UP ALONG THE CONTDVD IN WESTERLY OROGRAPHIC FLOW TO KEEP HIGHER                 
MTS ALONG THE CONTDVD SOCKED IN ALL DAY. ATTENTION TURNS TOWARDS                
ARCTIC FRONT WHICH WILL SURGE THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS EARLY                
SUNDAY MORNING. IN FACT...HIGH TEMPS WILL LIKELY BE THE SAME AS                 
THE LOW TEMPS FROM THE NIGHT BEFORE (OCCURRING AROUND 15Z) WITH                 
TEMPS FALLING THROUGH THE AFTN. CHALLENGE WILL BE SNOW POTENTIAL                
ACROSS THE PLAINS. FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING DURING THE MORNING                   
SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO PRODUCE SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SNOW SHOWERS              
ACROSS THE SE PLAINS...WITH BEST POTENTIAL LINGERING ALONG THE                  
LOWER EASTERN SLOPES OF THE SE MTS/ADJACENT PLAINS IN SHALLOW POST              
FRONTAL UPSLOPE LAYER. FOR NOW...DO NOT THINK SNOWFALL WILL BE                  
PARTICULARLY HEAVY ACROSS THE EASTERN MTS/ADJACENT PLAINS AS                    
ISENTROPIC ANALYSIS SUGGESTS NEUTRAL BECOMING DOWNGLIDE BY THE                  
AFTERNOON. HOWEVER THERE IS SOME INSTABILITY AND A BRIEF SHOT OF                
DYNAMICS IN THE MORNING AND WITH MODEL SOUNDINGS SATURATED THROUGH              
THE FAVORABLE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONES -12 TO -18C RANGE...A FEW                  
INCHES OF FLUFFY SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY UNDER THE                   
HEAVIER SNOW BANDS. HAVE BUMPED UP POPS INTO THE LIKELY CATEGORY                
FOR THE EASTERN MTS/ADJACENT I-25 CORRIDOR. GUSTY NORTH WINDS                   
BEHIND THE FRONT WILL MAKE FOR A RAW DAY ACROSS ALL OF THE SE                   
PLAINS WITH WINTER MAKING A RATHER BRUTAL RE-APPEARANCE.                        
TROF RELOADS IN THE WEST AS MORE ENERGY DROPS SOUTH OUT OF CANADA.              
THIS KEEPS COLD AND UNSETTLED CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA FOR                    
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. NEXT PIECE OF ENERGY LIFTS OUT OF THE              
WESTERN US MEAN TROF LATE MONDAY AFTN/MONDAY NIGHT WITH SNOW                    
INTENSIFYING ACROSS THE WRN MTS ONCE AGAIN. ANTICIPATE THAT WE                  
WILL NEED ANOTHER WINTER STORM WATCH FOR MONDAY AFTN/MONDAY NIGHT               
ACROSS THE WESTERN MTS. MID LVL FLOW TURNS MORE SOUTHERLY AS UPPER              
JET APPROACHES MONDAY NIGHT AND SE PLAINS COMES UNDER A PERIOD OF               
ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE. THIS WILL SPREAD ANOTHER ROUND OF SNOW ACROSS               
THE EASTERN PLAINS MON NIGHT. WINDOW FOR SNOWFALL LOOKS FAIRLY BRIEF AS         
ENERGY SHOOTS OFF INT THE CENTRAL PLAINS BY EARLY TUES                          
MORNING...SO NOT EXPECTING A HEAVY SNOW EVENT...BUT AGAIN WITH                  
FAVORABLE TEMPS IN THE SATURATED LAYER...COULD SEE A COUPLE INCHES              
OF FLUFFY SNOW ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE ADJACENT PLAINS MONDAY                    
NIGHT.                                                                          
UPPER JET AXIS SHIFTS NORTHWARD INTO CEN CO ON TUES WITH GFS                    
SUGGESTING FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL LIFT BACK NORTHWARD DURING THE                 
DAY. SRN I-25 CORRIDOR COULD WARM BACK UP BUT THINK THE COLD AIR                
ACROSS THE PLAINS WILL HAVE A TOUGHER TIME ERODING BACK                         
NORTH...EVEN BENEATH STRONG WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. WILL KEEP TEMP GRIDS           
BELOW GUIDANCE VALUES FOR NOW.                                                  
UNSETTLED CONDITIONS CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS BOTH                      
GFS/ECMWF KEEP TROF OVER THE WRN US. GFS IS QUICKEST TO WEAKEN THE              
TROF AND MOVE IT ACROSS THE AREA WED NIGHT...WHILE ECMWF HANGS ENERGY           
BACK OVER THE GREAT BASIN BEFORE MOVING IT ACROSS THE AREA ON                   
THURSDAY. HOWEVER BOTH MODELS SUGGEST A TRANSITION TO WESTERLY                  
FLOW BY NEXT WEEKEND WHICH SHOULD MEAN A TREND TOWARDS DRIER AND                
WARMER CONDITIONS WITH PERIODIC LIGHT SNOWS POSSIBLE ALONG THE                  
CONTDVD REGION. -KT                                                             
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
PER SHORT TERM DISCUSSION...WINDY TO VERY WINDY CONDITIONS WILL                 
LIKELY DEVELOP FOR ALL TERMINAL FORECAST POINTS LATER THIS MORNING              
AND AFTERNOON. APPARENT ROTOR WILL BE AROUND KCOS THIS MORNING WITH             
THE WIND EXTREMELY VARIABLE SWITCHING FROM EASTERLY TO PERIOD                   
WESTERLY GUSTY WINDS BACK TO EASTERLY. METZE                                    
&&                                                                              
.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 5 PM MST                     
SUNDAY FOR COZ059-061>064-067.                                                  
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 5 PM MST SUNDAY                 
FOR COZ058-060-066-068.                                                         
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
17/31                                                                           
</pre> co                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY                                              
1243 AM EST FRI DEC 12 2008                                                     
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
A COMPLEX WINTER STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTHEAST ALONG                         
THE MID ATLANTIC REGION OVERNIGHT.  THIS STORM WILL BE NEAR THE                 
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST FRIDAY MORNING.  A WINTRY MIX OF                     
PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE ACROSS EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW             
ENGLAND THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING...WITH SIGNIFICANT ICE ACCUMULATIONS             
FROM THE CAPITAL REGION SOUTH AND EAST.  HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN            
FROM THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES REGION FRIDAY NIGHT WITH COLD AND DRY             
WEATHER TO OPEN THE WEEKEND.                                                    
&&                                                                              
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...                                                  
...MESOSCALE UPDATE ON THE STORM...                                             
SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORM CONTINUES TO IMPACT THE REGION THIS                    
EVENING WITH A VARIETY OF PCPN TYPES. THE 00Z RUC HAS THE SFC LOW               
/1000 HPA/ JUST W/NW OF KGSO WITH A THERMAL TROUGH/WARM FRONT                   
EXTENDING NORTHEAST FROM THE MID ATLANTIC REGION INTO THE                       
NORTHEAST WITH TREMENDOUS OVER RUNNING OCCURRING ALONG THE LOW                  
LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE. WE ARE EXPECTING PCPN RATES TO BE                        
WIDESPREAD IN THE ONE TO TWO TENTHS ON AN INCH HOUR RANGE BASED ON              
THE OBSERVATIONS FROM NRN NJ...ERN PA...AND LONG ISLAND OVER THE                
NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. KTTN IS COMING IN CLOSE TO A QUARTER AN INCH                
AN HOUR AT THIS HOUR. A TROPICAL CONNECTION OF MOISTURE IS ONGOING              
WITH THE ANOMALOUS SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL JET /50-60 KTS!/ TAPPING                 
INTO THE ANOMALOUS PRECIPITABLE WATER AIR FROM THE GULF STREAM AND              
GULF OF MEXICO. STRONG LOW TO MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS WILL PERSIST              
PRIOR TO 1200 UTC/FRI FROM THE CAPITAL REGION SOUTH AND EAST KEEP               
THE PCPN RATES INTENSE.                                                         
THE 00Z KALY SOUNDING IS IN SHOWING A TREND TO FREEZING RAIN WITH               
THE SUBFREEZING LAYER ONLY FROM THE SFC TO ABOUT 900 HPA. THE                   
WARM NOSE ISN/T SUPER IMPRESSIVE...BUT WITH TEMPS ABOVE FREEZING                
FROM /PEAKING ABOUT +2C/ 900 HPA TO 750 HPA.  GROUND TRUTH FROM                 
NORTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION HAS BEEN MOSTLY SLEET AND SNOW WITH A               
FEW INCHES OF ACCUMULATION.  A TRANSITION TO ALL FREEZING RAIN HAS              
OCCURRED IN MOST OF THE CAPITAL REGION...PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN VT                
AND THE BERKSHIRES...WE EVEN HAVE SOME TEMPS ABOVE FREEZING WITH                
PLAIN RAIN...IN THE BERKS...AND PARTS OF RENSSELAER COUNTY WITH                 
DOWN SLOPING. LOCATIONS SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION CONTINUE TO BE              
MAINLY FREEZING RAIN...WITH POSSIBLE POCKETS OF RAIN WITH TEMPS                 
GETTING ABOVE 32 DEGREES. THE TREND WILL BE FOR THE MID HUDSON                  
VALLEY TO HEAD ABOVE FREEZING PRIOR TO MIDNIGHT.                                
ICE ACCRETIONS OF TWO TO FOUR TENTHS OF AN INCH HAVE BEEN REPORTED              
THUS FAR...MAINLY FROM THE CAPITAL REGION SOUTH AND EAST.  WE WILL              
BE ISSUING AN UPDATE TO REMOVE SNOW FROM THE CAPITAL                            
REGION...BERKSHIRES...CNTRL MOHAWK VALLEY SOUTH. WE WILL KEEP                   
SLEET IN PRIOR TO MIDNIGHT BASED ON THE LATEST RADAR AND                        
OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS...AND A CHANCE OF SLEET AFTER MIDNIGHT.  ICE               
ACCUMULATIONS OF A HALF AN INCH TO AN INCH LOOK LIKELY FROM THE                 
CAPITAL REGION...SOUTHERN VERMONT...AND CNTRL MOHAWK VALLEY SOUTH.              
NUMEROUS REPORTS OF POWER OUTAGES /DUE TO TREES...TREE LIMBS AND                
WIRES DOWN/ ARE COMING IN FROM THE MID HUDSON                                   
VALLEY...BERKSHIRES...AND THE ERN CATSKILLS SOUTH. TEMPS SHOULD                 
RISE ABOVE FREEZING IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY/SRN TACONICS AFTER                 
MIDNIGHT WITH PLAIN RAIN. WE ACCOUNTED FOR THIS IN THE GRIDS.                   
LOCATIONS NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION ENTRENCHED IN THE                
COLDER AIR...WILL SEE SNOW RATES UP TO AN INCH AN HOUR...WITH                   
SLEET. PORTIONS OF THE SRN ADIRONDACKS COULD RECEIVE SIX TO                     
TWELVE INCHES OF SNOW. EXPECT SIGNIFICANT SLEET ACCUMULATIONS IN THE            
LAKE GEORGE REGION.                                                             
PLEASE SEE OUR LATEST PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT...WITH                       
SNOW...SLEET...AND ICE AMOUNTS. ALSO SEE OUR LOCAL STORM REPORT                 
WITH THE POWER OUTAGES AND DAMAGE.                                              
HEADLINES WILL REMAIN AS IS...ESPECIALLY WITH ALL THE DAMAGE                    
COMING IN SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION AT THIS TIME.                             
 &&                                                                             
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...                                    
IN THE WAKE OF THE STORM...THERE MAY BE SOME LINGERING LAKE EFFECT              
SNOW SHOWERS INTO THE FAR WESTERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA.                   
OTHERWISE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO NOSE INTO REGION FROM THE               
SOUTHWEST FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE NIGHT...WHICH WILL HELP LOWER              
THE INVERSION HEIGHT AND SQUELCH ANY REMAINING LAKE EFFECT.                     
THE HIGH PRESSURE AREA WILL BE OVER THE REGION ON SATURDAY...AND                
JUST EAST OF THE REGION BY SUNDAY. THIS WILL PROVIDE FOR A DRY                  
WEEKEND WITH MAINLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES FOR MOST OF THE                
REGION...BUT WEAK WARM FRONTAL OVERUNNING COULD PRODUCE MOSTLY                  
CLOUDY CONDITIONS OVER THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA                  
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING.                                             
TEMPERATURES WILL BE VERY COLD ON SATURDAY...IN THE MID TEENS TO MID            
20S...BUT WILL WARM UP TO HIGHS IN THE 30S ON SUNDAY.                           
VERY COLD TEMPS FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY NIGHT WITH LOW TEMPS                  
RANGING FROM THE SINGLE NUMBERS BELOW ZERO TO THE MID TEENS.                    
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...                                    
IN THE WAKE OF THE STORM...THERE MAY BE SOME LINGERING LAKE                     
EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS INTO THE FAR WESTERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST                  
AREA. OTHERWISE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO NOSE INTO REGION FROM             
THE SOUTHWEST FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE NIGHT...WHICH WILL HELP                
LOWER THE INVERSION HEIGHT AND SQUELCH ANY REMAINING LAKE EFFECT.               
THE HIGH PRESSURE AREA WILL BE OVER THE REGION ON SATURDAY...AND                
JUST EAST OF THE REGION BY SUNDAY. THIS WILL PROVIDE FOR A DRY                  
WEEKEND WITH MAINLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES FOR MOST OF THE                
REGION...BUT WEAK WARM FRONTAL OVERRUNNING COULD PRODUCE MOSTLY                 
CLOUDY CONDITIONS OVER THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA                  
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING.                                             
TEMPERATURES WILL BE VERY COLD ON SATURDAY...IN THE MID TEENS TO MID            
20S...BUT WILL WARM UP TO HIGHS IN THE 30S ON SUNDAY.                           
VERY COLD TEMPS FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY NIGHT WITH LOW TEMPS                  
RANGING FROM THE SINGLE NUMBERS BELOW ZERO TO THE MID TEENS.                    
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...                                   
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE OUR WEATHER FOR SUNDAY...WITH PARTLY                
CLOUDY SKIES AND AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO SEASONAL NORMAL.               
THE HIGH SLIDES EAST OFF THE COAST SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE NEXT SURFACE             
LOW BRINGS THE LOW LEVEL WINDS BACK TO A SOUTHWESTERLY                          
DIRECTION...BRINGING IN WARMTH AND MOISTURE FROM THE GULF. THE                  
SURFACE LOW MOVES NORTH INTO CANADA MONDAY...WITH OVERRUNNING PRECIP            
SPREADING INTO THE REGION WHICH IS LIKELY TO CHANGE FROM SNOW TO                
FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET AND LATER TO RAIN AS SURFACE TEMPERATURES               
CLIMB ABOVE FREEZING. A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE REGION LATE            
MONDAY NIGHT WHICH WILL TURN ANY LIQUID OR FREEZING PRECIPITATION               
BACK TO SNOW TOWARD DAYBREAK...BUT AS TEMPERATURES WARM FROM                    
DOWNSLOPING AND SUBSIDENCE THE PRECIPITATION WILL CHANGE TO RAIN                
ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION FROM THE MOHAWK VALLEY SOUTH DURING THE               
DAY ON TUESDAY. ANOTHER WEAK LOW WILL MOVE ALONG THE AIR MASS                   
BOUNDARY WEDNESDAY AND KEEP THE WEATHER OVER THE REGION UNSETTLED.              
WITH THE REGION IN THE COLD AIR MASS THE P-TYPE WILL MOST LIKELY BE             
SNOW EXCEPT FOR A SMALL AREA OF MIX IN THE MID HUDSON REGION OF NY              
AND SOUTHERN LITCHFIELD COUNTY CT. HIGH PRESSURE THEN WEDGES ITS WAY            
INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST ON THURSDAY TO GIVE US A BRIEF BREAK              
IN THE ACTION...WITH MIDDAY TEMPERATURES FROM THE MID 20S TO THE MID            
30S...JUST SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.                         
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...                                       
IFR/LIFR WILL PERSIST THE REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD.  A                 
VARIETY OF PRECIP TYPES WITH MAINLY SLEET/FREEZING RAIN EXPECTED                
OVERNIGHT WITH THE TREMENDOUS WARM AIR ALOFT AND SURFACE                        
TEMPERATURES AT OR JUST BELOW THE FREEZING MARK.                                
MID LEVEL DRY SLOT APPROACHES AROUND 10-12Z FRIDAY WHICH WILL CUT               
OFF ICE NUCLEI AND RESULT PERIODS OF DRIZZLE/FREEZING DRIZZLE BUT               
STILL IFR BUT IMPROVING TO MVFR LATER IN THE MORNING.  DEFORMATION              
/WRAP AROUND/ ZONE APPROACHES TOWARD 15Z WITH A PERIOD OF SNOW                  
AND/OR SLEET FOR MOST AREAS /WOULD NEED TO WATCH FOR LOCAL EFFECT               
FROM GFL-ALB FOR BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS/...UNTIL THIS AFTERNOON WHEN              
DRIER AIR CONTINUES TO FILTER IN THE WAKE OF THIS STORM WITH VFR                
CONDITIONS RETURNING.                                                           
OUTLOOK...                                                                      
FRI NT-MON AM...VFR. NO SIG WX.                                                 
MON PM-TUE...MVFR...POSS IFR. CIG/VIS. CHC SHRAS.                               
&&                                                                              
.HYDROLOGY...                                                                   
A FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHEASTERN CATSKILLS...               
THE MID HUDSON AND TACONIC REGIONS OF NEW YORK...BERKSHIRE COUNTY IN            
MASSACHUSETTS AND LITCHFIELD COUNTY CONNECTICUT.                                
THE TOPIC OF MOST CONCERN IS THE HOUSATONIC RIVER. RAIN AND MELTING             
SNOW OVER THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY BROUGHT THE              
HOUSATONIC RIVER UP ONE TO TWO FEET IN WESTERN MASSACHUSETTS AND                
CONNECTICUT. TWO TO THREE INCHES OF ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION ARE                
FORECAST ACROSS THE HOUSATONIC VALLEY...WITH MOST FALLING BETWEEN               
7 PM THURSDAY AND 7 AM FRIDAY. ALTHOUGH TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED               
TO BE COLD ENOUGH AT THE GROUND FOR FREEZING RAIN...FORECAST                    
PRECIPITATION RATES OF ONE QUARTER TO ONE THIRD OF AN INCH PER HOUR             
WOULD BE HIGH ENOUGH SO THAT MUCH OF THE RAIN WILL RUN OFF THE                  
GROUND INTO STREAMS AND RIVERS BEFORE FREEZING. RIVER MODELS                    
INDICATE THAT RIVERS IN THE WATCH AREA COULD REACH MINOR FLOOD                  
LEVELS. IN ADDITION...URBAN AND POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING IS ALSO                  
POSSIBLE. LAST WINTER WE HAD A COUPLE OF EVENTS WHERE FREEZING RAIN             
OCCURRED WITH HIGH RAINFALL RATES AND FLOODING WAS ALSO REPORTED IN             
THE SAME AREA. WITH TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO CLIMB A BIT ABOVE                  
FREEZING FOR SOUTHERN LITCHFIELD...FLOOD CONCERNS HERE ARE MORE LI              
A FLOOD WARNING ISSUED WEDNESDAY FOR THE BATTENKILL IN SOUTHERN                 
VERMONT WAS CANCELED THIS MORNING AS THE RIVER DROPPED BELOW ITS                
6 FOOT FLOOD STAGE OVERNIGHT. IT WILL RECEDE A FEW INCHES MORE                  
TODAY...AND CONTINUE TO RECEDE FRIDAY AS TEMPERATURES ACROSS                    
SOUTHERN VERMONT WILL REMAIN BELOW FREEZING.                                    
RIVER ICE/ICE JAMS WILL NOT BE A CONCERN.                                       
FOR DETAILS ON THE RIVERS...PLEASE VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC                
PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.                                
&&                                                                              
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
CT...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING FOR CTZ001-013.                         
     ICE STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST FRIDAY FOR CTZ001.                        
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST FRIDAY FOR CTZ013.                  
NY...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING FOR NYZ058>061-063>066.                 
     ICE STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST FRIDAY FOR NYZ058>061-063>066.            
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST FRIDAY FOR NYZ032-033-                 
     038>043-047>054-082>084.                                                   
MA...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING FOR MAZ001-025.                         
     ICE STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST FRIDAY FOR MAZ001-025.                    
VT...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST FRIDAY FOR VTZ013>015.                 
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SYNOPSIS...WASULA                                                               
NEAR TERM...WASULA                                                              
SHORT TERM...MAGLARAS                                                           
LONG TERM...RCK                                                                 
AVIATION...BGM                                                                  
HYDROLOGY...RCK                                                                 
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ALBANY                                                          
</pre> ct                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL                                         
225 PM EST SAT DEC 13 2008                                                      
...WARMING TREND IN STORE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...                               
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
19Z WATER VAPOR AND H4 RUC ANALYSIS SHOWING MAINLY ZONAL AND QUIET              
WEATHER ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST. THINGS ARE NOT AS QUIET                  
ELSEWHERE IN THE NATION WITH A SIGNIFICANT SYSTEM DIGGING AND                   
EVOLVING ACROSS THE INTER-MOUNTAIN WEST AND NORTHERN PLAINS. WV                 
IMAGERY SHOWS SHARP TROUGHING IN THE MID/UPPER LEVELS DIGGING ACROSS            
IDAHO...MONTANA AND WYOMING. THIS IS A RATHER ENERGETIC SYSTEM WITH             
EVEN A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES SHOWING UP EARLIER TODAY NEAR NEAR SALT            
LAKE CITY. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROUGH WILL                
EJECT ACROSS WYOMING AND INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS TONIGHT. VERY                 
LARGE AREA OF THE COUNTRY AHEAD OF AN TO THE NORTH OF THIS FEATURE              
NOW UNDER WINTER STORM OR BLIZZARD WARNINGS. FURTHER DOWNSTREAM WE              
FIND A WEAK MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCE EJECTING EASTWARD ACROSS THE                  
SOUTHERN PLAINS. LARGE EXPANSE OF HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS HAS BEEN                    
STREAMING AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE ACROSS OUR SKIES TODAY.                         
AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS CENTERED TO OUR NORTHEAST                
OVER THE CAROLINAS WITH RIDGING BACK TO THE SOUTHWEST OVER OUR AREA             
INTO THE NORTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO. LIGHT EASTERLY FLOW ON THE                   
SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THIS RIDGE WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT            
HOURS AS THE HIGH CENTER NUDGES EASTWARD OFF THE CAROLINA COAST.                
CURRENT TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON RISING SLOWLY THROUGH THE LOWER             
AND MIDDLE 50S UNDER THE FILTERED SUNSHINE.                                     
.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)...                                   
SURFACE HIGH CENTER MOVES EAST OFF THE CAROLINA COAST TONIGHT INTO              
SUNDAY MORNING. THE COMBINATION OF THIS MOVEMENT AND LOW PRESSURE               
ARRIVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL U.S. WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY VEER OUR               
LOW LEVEL WINDS TO THE SOUTHEAST.                                               
WEAK MID-LEVEL IMPULSE CURRENTLY OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL                  
EJECT RAPIDLY EASTWARD TO OUR NORTH THIS EVENING. HOWEVER BEHIND                
THIS FEATURE WILL SEE A SERIES OF SOUTHERN STREAM IMPULSES RIDING               
NORTHEAST ALONG THE TEXAS/NORTH-CENTRAL GULF COAST INTO MONDAY.                 
STILL EXPECTING COOL CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT...HOWEVER NOT NEARLY AS               
COLD AS THIS PAST MORNING. SLOWLY INCREASING MOISTURE ARRIVING ON               
THE EASTERLY FLOW COMBINED WITH CONTINUED PERIODS OF HIGH LEVEL                 
CIRRUS SHOULD PREVENT EVEN THE COLDEST LOCATIONS FROM APPROACHING               
THE FREEZING MARK. EVEN LEANING TOWARD THE SLIGHTLY COOLER MAV                  
NUMBERS WILL RESULTS IN LOWS GENERALLY FROM THE MIDDLE 30S TO AROUND            
40 INLAND AND MIDDLE 40S ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST.                             
LOW LEVEL FLOW BECOMES SOUTHEAST AREA-WIDE FOR SUNDAY WITH A                    
SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE (AT LEAST COMPARED TO                
TODAY). ONCE AGAIN WITH THE LEADING SOUTHERN STREAM IMPULSE PASSING             
TO OUR NORTHWEST...WOULD EXPECT PERIODS OF HIGH LEVEL CIRRUS TO                 
CONTINUE TO OVERSPREAD FROM THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST. AS THIS IMPULSE             
PASSES BY WILL SEE A BROAD AREA OF WEAK SYNOPTIC FORCING SLIDING                
OVER THE WESTERN ZONES. LOOKING AT A WEST-EAST CROSS-SECTION OF THE             
AREA...GFS/NAM ARE SHOWING SOME WEAK LIFT BELOW 500MB WITH THE                  
FORCING...HOWEVER THE AIRMASS IS STILL VERY DRY BETWEEN 850MB AND               
500MB. MOST GUIDANCE PACKAGES ARE TRYING TO PRODUCE SOME VERY LIGHT             
QPF ACROSS THE WEST DURING THE DAY SUNDAY...BUT EXPECT EVEN THESE               
LIGHT AMOUNTS TO BE OVERDONE. BETTER MOISTURE PROFILES (DEEPER                  
MOISTURE) IS FURTHER WEST OVER TOWARD PENSACOLA/MOBILE THROUGH THE              
AFTERNOON AND WOULD EXPECT ANY MEASURABLE RAINFALL FROM SHOWERS TO              
BE CONFINED TO THESE AREAS. CAN NOT RULE OUT A FEW RAINDROPS                    
(SPRINKLES) INTO THE EASTERN FL PANHANDLE...HOWEVER IMPACTS WOULD               
BE VERY LIMITED OR NONE FOR OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES. WARMING TEMPERATURES            
FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH NEAR CLIMO READING IN THE LOWER AND MIDDLE            
60S NORTH AND UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70 SOUTH. BIT COOLER TEMPS                    
(HOLDING IN THE MIDDLE 60S) CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG THE WAKULLA AND               
FRANKLIN COUNTY COASTS WITH THE STEADY FLOW OFF THE COOLER SHELF                
WATERS OF APALACHEE BAY.                                                        
PLEASANT CONDITIONS FOR MID-DECEMBER ON TAP FOR SUNDAY NIGHT. THE               
HIGHER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND CONTINUED SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL RESULT              
IN LOW TEMPS ONLY DROPPING TO AROUND 50 FOR THE COLDEST INLAND                  
LOCATIONS AND THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 50S ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST.               
ANOTHER WEAK IMPULSE IS FORECAST TO APPROACH FROM THE WEST AND                  
WEAKEN OVERNIGHT. AGAIN ONLY A CHANCE OF A SPRINKLE OR TWO ROLLING              
INTO THE EASTERN PANHANDLE OFF THE GULF WITH BETTER CHANCES FOR                 
PASSING SHOWERS REMAINING WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA.                            
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...VERY PLEASANT TEMPERATURES FOR MID-DEC                
ANTICIPATED. SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL BE SAGGING SOUTHEAST ACROSS MS/AL            
THROUGH THE DAY. GFS/NAM BOTH SHOW THIS FRONT STALLING NEAR OR JUST             
OUTSIDE OF OUR WESTERN AND NORTHERN ZONES MONDAY NIGHT. BY THIS                 
TIME...MOST OF THE MID-LEVEL DRY AIR WILL HAVE BEEN ERODED. THE                 
ADDED LOW LEVEL FOCUS FROM THIS FRONT...COMBINED WITH THE MORE                  
FAVORABLE MOISTURE PROFILES AND SOME WEAK SYNOPTIC FORCING WILL                 
BRING SLIGHT TO LOW END CHANCE POPS (SCT SHOWERS) BACK TO THE                   
FORECAST AREA. HOWEVER...ANY PASSING SHOWERS SHOULD BE GENERALLY                
OF THE LIGHT VARIETY WITH SMALL ACCUMULATIONS AND LIMITED IMPACTS               
TO OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES. THE AIRMASS POTENTIAL FOR MONDAY WILL BE                 
QUITE WARM...AND WILL ONLY TAKE A FEW BREAKS OF SUN THROUGH THE DAY             
TO REACH THE LOWER 70S. LOW TEMPS MONDAY NIGHT MAY FAIL TO DROP                 
BELOW THE MIDDLE 50S FOR EVEN THE COOLEST LOCATIONS.                            
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM (TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...                                        
LARGE SCALE PATTERN IN THE EXTENDED TO BE QUITE DIFFERENT FROM THAT             
OF THE LAST MONTH. THE MEAN EASTERN TROUGH WILL REDEVELOP OVER THE              
WESTERN STATES WITH A GENERALLY FLAT RIDGE DEVELOPING ACROSS THE                
GULF OF MEXICO.                                                                 
TUESDAY WILL SEE A STRONG SFC HIGH OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC                    
WITH MOIST LOW LEVEL EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW OVER THE CWA. MAY SEE A             
FEW SHOWERS DEVELOP DURING THIS PERIOD WITH THE MOIST LOW LEVEL                 
FLOW...BUT NOT EXPECTING ANY SIGNIFICANT RAIN AMOUNTS.                          
BY WEDNESDAY...SFC HIGH IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AS THE UPPER RIDGE                
AMPLIFIES A BIT. THIS WILL DRY THINGS OUT FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE              
FORECAST PERIOD...WITH THE RIDGE KEEPING FRONTAL SYSTEMS STALLED TO             
THE NORTH.                                                                      
TEMPERATURES WILL RUN ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD DUE              
TO THE INFLUENCE OF THE UPPER RIDGE.                                            
&&                                                                              
.MARINE...                                                                      
FORECAST WATERS REMAIN ON THE SOUTHWEST PERIPHERY OF A SURFACE                  
RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE CAROLINA COAST TO THE NORTHEAST GULF OF                
MEXICO. SEEING A SLIGHT DECREASE IN WINDS THIS AFTERNOON...HOWEVER              
SOLID CAUTIONARY LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW SHOULD RESUME THIS EVENING                 
AS FLOW CONTINUES TO SWING AROUND TO THE EAST. AS IS OFTEN                      
THE CASE WITH EASTERLY FLOW...EXPECTING A SLIGHT NOCTURNAL SURGE IN             
THE WINDS OVERNIGHT AND WILL LIKELY REACH ADVISORY LEVELS FOR A                 
TIME INTO SUNDAY MORNING. CAUTIONARY LEVEL WINDS AND SEAS ARE                   
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY NIGHT OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST...                  
ESPECIALLY OVER THE WESTERN LEGS. THEREAFTER ANTICIPATING A                     
CONTINUED PERIOD OF SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH                
WINDS AND SEAS GENERALLY BELOW HEADLINE CRITERIA.                               
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
AS THE LOW LEVEL FLOW GRADUALLY BECOMES MORE EASTERLY AND THEN VEERS            
MORE TO THE SOUTHEAST TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND               
CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS INTO THE EARLY            
MORNING HOURS SUNDAY...FOLLOWED BY INCREASING CLOUDS AT AROUND 3 TO             
4 THOUSAND FEET SPREADING FROM EAST TO WEST ACROSS THE TRI STATE                
AREA...WHILE MID AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS SPREAD FROM WEST TO EAST AND            
GRADUALLY THICKEN OVERNIGHT. WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL REMAIN EAST TO                
SOUTHEAST AT AROUND 5 KNOTS. BY DAYBREAK...AREAS OF FOG AND MVFR                
CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP...MAINLY ACROSS SOUTHEAST                      
ALABAMA...SOUTH CENTRAL GEORGIA AND THE EASTERN FLORIDA BIG BEND.               
LOOKING AHEAD...A WARMER MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL ENSURE THE                   
DEVELOPMENT OF MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES DURING THE NIGHT AND              
EARLY MORNING HOURS ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA INTO THE COMING WEEK.               
&&                                                                              
.FIRE WX...                                                                     
INCREASING CLOUD COVER LIMITED DAYTIME HEATING AND THE RED FLAG                 
WARNING FOR OUR FLORIDA COUNTIES WAS CANCELLED EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.            
THE LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO VEER TO THE EAST AND THEN THE               
SOUTHEAST...BRINGING INCREASING MOISTURE ACROSS THE TRI STATE AREA              
DURING THE COMING WEEK...AND RED FLAG CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED               
THROUGH THE COMING WEEK.                                                        
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
TALLAHASSEE  41  68  53  73  57 /  05  10  10  20  20                           
PANAMA CITY  47  68  59  70  61 /  10  10  20  30  20                           
DOTHAN       40  65  55  69  56 /  10  10  10  30  20                           
ALBANY       37  65  50  73  55 /  05  10  10  20  20                           
VALDOSTA     39  68  51  74  56 /  05  10  10  20  20                           
CROSS CITY   42  72  52  76  55 /  05  10  10  20  20                           
&&                                                                              
.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
AL...NONE.                                                                      
GA...NONE.                                                                      
FL...NONE.                                                                      
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 11 AM EST                  
     SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM OCHLOCKONEE            
     RIVER TO APALACHICOLA FL OUT TO 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM                
     APALACHICOLA TO DESTIN FL OUT 20 NM...WATERS FROM SUWANNEE                 
     RIVER TO APALACHICOLA FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM                    
     APALACHICOLA TO DESTIN FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM.                                
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM/MARINE...MROCZKA                                            
AVIATION/FIRE WEATHER...DUVAL                                                   
LONG TERM...CAMP                                                                
</pre> fl                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL                                         
930 AM EST SAT DEC 13 2008                                                      
...WARMING TREND IN STORE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...                               
.SYNOPSIS/UPDATE...                                                             
14Z WATER VAPOR AND H4 RUC ANALYSIS SHOWING ZONAL AND QUIET WEATHER             
ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST THIS MORNING. THINGS ARE NOT AS QUIET             
ELSEWHERE IN THE NATION WITH A SIGNIFICANT SYSTEM DIGGING AND                   
EVOLVING ACROSS THE INTER-MOUNTAIN WEST AND NORTHERN PLAINS. WV                 
IMAGERY SHOWS SHARP TROUGHING IN THE MID/UPPER LEVELS DIGGING                   
ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST/IDAHO AND MONTANA. THIS IS A RATHER                
ENERGETIC SYSTEM WITH EVEN A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES SHOWING UP NEAR              
SALT LAKE CITY THIS MORNING. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH               
THIS TROUGH WILL EJECT ACROSS WYOMING AND INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS              
TONIGHT. VERY LARGE AREA OF THE COUNTRY AHEAD OF AN TO THE NORTH OF             
THIS FEATURE NOW UNDER WINTER STORM OR BLIZZARD WARNINGS. FURTHER               
DOWNSTREAM WE FIND A WEAK MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCE EJECTING OUT OF NEW             
MEXICO INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. LARGE EXPANSE OF HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS             
STREAMING AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE WILL INVADE OUR SKIES INTO TONIGHT              
AND WILL FILTER THE SUNSHINE FOR MOST AREAS BY THIS AFTERNOON.                  
AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE CAROLINAS CONTINUES            
TO RIDGE BACK OVER OUR AREA. THE CLEAR SKIES AND CALM WINDS UNDER               
THE RIDGE ALLOWED FOR MANY INLAND SPOTS TO REACH OR DROP A FEW                  
DEGREES BELOW FREEZING AROUND SUNRISE THIS MORNING. CURRENT                     
TEMPERATURES AS OF 9 AM ARE REBOUNDING BACK THROUGH THE 40S ON THEIR            
WAY TO AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 50S NORTH AND UPPER              
50S TO LOWER 60S SOUTH. THE FOLLOWING ARE LOW TEMPS FROM A FEW                  
SELECT LOCATIONS ACROSS THE AREA:                                               
TALLAHASSEE...28 F                                                              
VALDOSTA...28 F                                                                 
ALBANY...28 F                                                                   
CROSS CITY...31 F                                                               
DOTHAN...31 F                                                                   
MARIANNA...31 F                                                                 
PERRY...32 F                                                                    
PANAMA CITY...36 F                                                              
APALACHICOLA...37 F                                                             
AS WAS MENTIONED ABOVE...WILL BE LOOKING AT MOSTLY SUNNY BUT                    
FILTERED SKIES THROUGH SOME HIGH LEVEL CIRRUS STREAMING IN FROM THE             
WEST. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED TO OUR NORTH WILL CONTINUE TO              
SLIDE EAST REACHING THE CAROLINA COAST THIS EVENING...AND THEN OFF              
THE COAST SUNDAY MORNING. THE COMBINATION OF THIS HIGH MOVING EAST              
AND LOW PRESSURE ARRIVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL U.S. WILL SLOWLY TURN              
OUR WINDS FROM THE NORTHEAST TO THE SOUTHEAST OVER THE NEXT 12 TO 24            
HOURS. WHILE STILL LOOKING AT VERY DRY LOW LEVEL CONDITIONS THROUGH             
THIS AFTERNOON...MOISTURE WILL ONCE AGAIN BEGIN TO INCREASE FOR                 
SUNDAY WITH THE EASTERLY/SOUTHEASTERLY REGIME.                                  
WITH A SERIES OF WEAK SOUTHERN STREAM IMPULSES RIDING NORTHEAST                 
ALONG THE TEXAS/NORTH-CENTRAL GULF COAST TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY...WILL             
CONTINUE TO SEE PERIODS OF MAINLY HIGH LEVEL CIRRUS TO FINISH OFF               
THE WEEKEND. THIS PAST MORNING REPRESENTS THAT LAST SIGNIFICANT COLD            
AIR FOR A WHILE WITH A WARMING TREND OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS                 
BRINGING TEMPS BACK WELL ABOVE NORMAL FOR MID-DECEMBER. LOW                     
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING REGION-WIDE WITH              
UPPER 30S TO AROUND 40 COMMON INLAND AND LOWER TO MIDDLE 40S ALONG              
THE COAST. SUNDAY AFTERNOON SHOULD SEE TEMPERATURES RIGHT AROUND                
CLIMO WITH MIDDLE 60S NORTH AND MIDDLE 60S TO AROUND 70 SOUTH. THE              
TREND ONLY GETS WARMER INTO THE EARLY AND MIDDLE PART OF NEXT                   
WEEK.                                                                           
&&                                                                              
.MARINE...                                                                      
FORECAST WATERS REMAIN ON THE SOUTHWEST PERIPHERY OF SURFACE RIDGE              
EXTENDING FROM THE CAROLINAS TO THE NORTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO.                   
CAUTIONARY LEVEL NORTHEAST FLOW WILL SWING AROUND TO THE EAST BY                
LATER TODAY AND INTO TONIGHT. AS IS OFTEN THE CASE WITH EASTERLY                
FLOW...EXPECTING A SLIGHT NOCTURNAL SURGE IN THE WINDS OVERNIGHT                
AND APPROACHING ADVISORY LEVELS FOR A TIME INTO SUNDAY MORNING.                 
THEREAFTER ANTICIPATING A PROLONGED PERIOD OF SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW                
INTO TUESDAY OF NEXT WEEK.                                                      
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE                                
FORECAST PERIOD...WITH ONLY A GRADUAL INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUDS FROM              
WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE DAY TODAY. LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL VEER TO THE            
EAST THIS MORNING AND THEN GRADUALLY BECOME MORE SOUTHEAST DURING               
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH SPEEDS 5 TO 10 KNOTS. EXPECT WINDS             
TO REMAIN 3 TO 5 KNOTS EAST TO SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT. WITH THE                    
INCREASING EASTERLY WIND COMPONENT...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BEGIN              
TO SPREAD BACK ACROSS THE TRI STATE AREA...AND THIS WILL RESULT IN              
AN INCREASE IN LOWER CLOUDS OVERNIGHT...MAINLY BETWEEN 3 AND 4                  
THOUSAND FEET... THOUGH PATCHES OF MVFR CEILINGS ARE POSSIBLE BY                
AROUND DAYBREAK ON SUNDAY.                                                      
&&                                                                              
.FIRE WX...                                                                     
THE DRY AIR MASS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE FOR TODAY LEADING TO RED FLAG             
CONDITIONS OVER FLORIDA THIS AFTERNOON. WILL CONTINUE THE RED FLAG              
WARNING. THEREAFTER...INCREASING MOIST EAST TO SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW               
WILL KEEP RH VALUES ABOVE CRITICAL LEVELS FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.            
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
TALLAHASSEE  59 40 67 53 72/ 0 0 10 10 20                                       
PANAMA CITY  60 46 69 57 73/ 0 0 10 10 20                                       
DOTHAN       55 40 65 52 71/ 0 0 10 10 20                                       
ALBANY       57 37 64 51 72/ 0 0 10 10 20                                       
VALDOSTA     58 39 67 52 73/ 0 0 10 10 20                                       
CROSS CITY   62 42 74 54 75/ 0 0 10 10 20                                       
&&                                                                              
.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
AL...NONE.                                                                      
GA...NONE.                                                                      
FL...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 1 PM EST /12 PM CST/ UNTIL 6 PM EST                  
     /5 PM CST/ THIS AFTERNOON FOR ALL ZONES.                                   
GM...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SYNOPSIS/UPDATE...MROCZKA                                                       
AVIATION...DUVAL                                                                
FIRE WEATHER...CAMP                                                             
</pre> fl                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID                                           
916 AM MST SAT DEC 13 2008                                                      
.UPDATE...CENTER OF VERY DEEP COMPLEX LOW NEAR NORTHWESTERN CORNER              
OF FCST AREA THIS MORNING PER WV SAT IMAGERY. IR SHOWS DRAMATIC                 
DRY SLOW WORKING SOUTHEAST ACROSS FCST AREA THROUGH CENTRAL MTNS                
ANT INTO THE EDGES OF THE SNAKE VALLEY. INSTABILITY CLOUDS/SHOWERS              
WORKING INTO CENTRAL MTNS BEHIND THE DRY SLOT. MEANWHILE...DEEPER               
MOISTURE OVER EASTERN EDGES OF FCST AREA KEEPING SNOW IN PLACE                  
ALONG EASTERN HIGHLANDS. WINDS CONTINUE TO BE A PROBLEM. SFC OBS                
SHOW WIDESPREAD WINDY CONDITIONS WITH A FEW LOCATIONS GUSTING OVER              
40 MPH PER MESOWEST DATA. THE SNOW THAT HAD FALLEN EARLIER                      
PRODUCING SOME BLOWING AND DRIFTING PER AREA WEBCAMS. GIVEN                     
COMPLEX SCENARIO HAVE MADE THE FOLLOWING HEADLINE/GRID UPDATES.                 
HAVE DROPPED THE WARNING FOR THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN ZONES AND                     
LOWERED POPS SLIGHTLY. SHOULD SEE MAINLY CONVECTIVE SHOWERS THERE               
TODAY WITH WINDS STICKING TO THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. FOR THE SNAKE               
VALLEY...HAVE CHANGED WINTER WX ADVISORY TO SIMPLY A WIND                       
ADVISORY. WILL MENTION BLOWING/DRIFTING ALONG INTERSTATE 15 WHERE               
MOST OF THE SNOW APPEARED TO HAVE FALLEN OVERNIGHT. HAVE LEFT REST              
OF THE MOUNTAIN ZONES IN WINTER STORM WARNINGS. THE EASTERN                     
HIGHLANDS CONTINUE TO SEE BOTH SNOW AND WIND TODAY...BUT THE ONLY               
STICKLER IS ZONE 22. SNOW HAS STOPPED AND THEY WILL BE DRY SLOTTED              
BUT THE STRONGER WINDS THERE WILL KEEP BLOWING SNOW A HAZARD                    
PARTICULARLY FOR INTERSTATE 84. TEXT PRODUCT UPDATES FORTHCOMING. DMH           
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 342 AM MST SAT DEC 13 2008/                         
SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. STRONG COLD FRONT HAS                  
ENTERED IDAHO AND IS QUICKLY MOVING THROUGH OUR REGION. WEBCAMS                 
AROUND THE AREA SHOW SNOW OVER MUCH OF THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF OUR              
FORECAST AREA. AS SUCH...WINTER STORM WARNINGS CONTINUE FOR CENTRAL             
MTNS THROUGH 5PM THIS EVENING AND ERN AND SRN HIGHLANDS CONTINUE                
THROUGH 5AM TOMORROW MORNING. IN ADDITION...WINTER WX ADVISORY                  
WILL CONTINUE FOR SNAKE RIVER PLAIN THROUGH 11PM TONIGHT. LATEST                
WSR-88D IMAGERY SHOWING LARGE SWATH OF MOISTURE MOVING FROM SW TO               
NE OVER BURLEY UP TO IDAHO FALLS PRODUCING SOME HEAVIER SNOW AND                
RAIN SHOWERS. LATEST RUC/GFS/NAM-12 MODELS HIGHLIGHTING CHANGE IN               
AREAL COVERAGE OF PRECIP AS MOST OF MOISTURE PROGGED TO AFFECT ERN              
AND SRN HIGHLANDS WITH LESS SNOW AMTS OVER CENTRAL MTNS. UPPER                  
LEVEL LOW IS STILL OVER OR/WA BORDER...HOWEVER...AND WILL PRODUCE               
MORE SNOW FOR THE MTNS AS IT APPROACHES AND MOVES OFF TO THE E.                 
SNOW AMTS STILL LOOK REASONABLE WITH 6 TO 12" OVER ALL MTN REGIONS              
AND 2 TO 4" ACROSS SNAKE RIVER PLAIN. STRONG WINDS WILL USHER IN                
THE COLD FRONT THIS MORNING WITH GUSTS OF 35 MPH AND ABOVE...MAX                
WINDS ARE EXPECTED WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE. TEMPERATURES WILL TAKE A               
NOSEDIVE ONCE FRONT MOVES THROUGH AS SEVERAL SITES INDICATED 10                 
DEGREE DROP IN TEMPERATURE OVER 1 HR PERIOD AFTER FROTNAL                       
PASSAGE...A STRONG FRONT TO SAY THE LEAST.                                      
ONCE FRONT MOVES THROUGH AREA THIS AFTERNOON...ALL MODELS SHOWING               
WEAK DISTURBANCES MOVING THROUGH LONGWAVE PATTERN WITH SOME MODEST              
ASSOCIATED AREAS OF PRECIP. ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS VERY LIKELY                
UNDER THESE QUICK MOVING DISTURBANCES. RENWICK                                  
LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. BOTH THE GFS AND ECM SHOW                  
GOOD AGREEMENT WITH CLOSED LOW DROPPING SOUTH ALONG THE OREGON                  
COAST AND A WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVING NORTHWARD INTO FORECAST                
AREA. FORECAST FOLLOWS TIMING OF THESE MODELS. NAM TIMING IS MUCH               
SLOWER. CONFIDENCE RUNNING HIGHER AND POPS WERE PUSHED A BIT                    
HIGHER...PARTICULARLY FOR THE EASTERN HIGHLANDS. THE NEXT ARCTIC                
DISTURBANCE DROPS OVER THE RIDGE AND SOUTHWARD INTO IDAHO BY                    
THURSDAY. THE 13/00Z ECMWF MODEL RUN IS MUCH MORE CONSISTENT WITH               
THE GFS DROPPING THIS DISTURBANCE THROUGH SOUTHEAST IDAHO THURSDAY              
NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING AND POPS               
WERE RAISED SOME HERE AS WELL. GFS 700 MB WINDS AND TEMPERATURES                
BRING FAIRLY COLD AIR DOWN INTO IDAHO TOO. DETAILS OF COLD BOX CAR              
AIR MASS MAKING IT INTO SOUTHEAST IDAHO STILL A LITTLE FUZZY. HAVE              
NUDGED FORECAST TEMPERATURES DOWN A FEW DEGREES IN CONSERVATIVE                 
FASHION. RS                                                                     
AVIATION...AT 13/10Z SURFACE COLD FRONT IS JUST WEST OF KBYI WITH A             
FEW GUSTS TO THE MID 40 MPH RANGE NOTED ON MESONET SITES. FRONT                 
EXPECTED TO REACH KPIH BETWEEN 1100-1130Z. LATEST RUC UPDATE ENDS               
SNOW AT KIDA AND KPIH AFTER 15Z...ABOUT 3 HOURS QUICKER THAN                    
PREVIOUSLY ANTICIPATED. SOUTHWEST WINDS 20 TO 30 MPH WILL PERSIST               
THROUGH AT LEAST 21Z...BY THAT TIME THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT               
DECREASES PER THE NAM12. WINDS COULD HANG IN THERE A BIT LONGER AS              
THE SURFACE LOW HAS NOT MOVED EAST OF WYOMING JUST YET. PERSISTENT              
MVFR CEILINGS CONTINUE OVER NIGHT IN AN UNSETTLED PATTERN. NEXT                 
DISTURBANCE SHOULD PUSH SHOWERS THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY                
AFTERNOON. RS                                                                   
&&                                                                              
.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR IDZ017-020-021.                   
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 11 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR IDZ019-023-               
025.                                                                            
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 8 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR IDZ022-024.                
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</pre> id                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID                                           
342 AM MST SAT DEC 13 2008                                                      
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. STRONG COLD FRONT HAS                 
ENTERED IDAHO AND IS QUICKLY MOVING THROUGH OUR REGION. WEBCAMS                 
AROUND THE AREA SHOW SNOW OVER MUCH OF THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF OUR              
FORECAST AREA. AS SUCH...WINTER STORM WARNINGS CONTINUE FOR CENTRAL             
MTNS THROUGH 5PM THIS EVENING AND ERN AND SRN HIGHLANDS CONTINUE                
THROUGH 5AM TOMORROW MORNING. IN ADDITION...WINTER WX ADVISORY                  
WILL CONTINUE FOR SNAKE RIVER PLAIN THROUGH 11PM TONIGHT. LATEST                
WSR-88D IMAGERY SHOWING LARGE SWATH OF MOISTURE MOVING FROM SW TO               
NE OVER BURLEY UP TO IDAHO FALLS PRODUCING SOME HEAVIER SNOW AND                
RAIN SHOWERS. LATEST RUC/GFS/NAM-12 MODELS HIGHLIGHTING CHANGE IN               
AREAL COVERAGE OF PRECIP AS MOST OF MOISTURE PROGGED TO AFFECT ERN              
AND SRN HIGHLANDS WITH LESS SNOW AMTS OVER CENTRAL MTNS. UPPER                  
LEVEL LOW IS STILL OVER OR/WA BORDER...HOWEVER...AND WILL PRODUCE               
MORE SNOW FOR THE MTNS AS IT APPROACHES AND MOVES OFF TO THE E.                 
SNOW AMTS STILL LOOK REASONABLE WITH 6 TO 12" OVER ALL MTN REGIONS              
AND 2 TO 4" ACROSS SNAKE RIVER PLAIN. STRONG WINDS WILL USHER IN                
THE COLD FRONT THIS MORNING WITH GUSTS OF 35 MPH AND ABOVE...MAX                
WINDS ARE EXPECTED WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE. TEMPERATURES WILL TAKE A               
NOSEDIVE ONCE FRONT MOVES THROUGH AS SEVERAL SITES INDICATED 10                 
DEGREE DROP IN TEMPERATURE OVER 1 HR PERIOD AFTER FROTNAL                       
PASSAGE...A STRONG FRONT TO SAY THE LEAST.                                      
ONCE FRONT MOVES THROUGH AREA THIS AFTERNOON...ALL MODELS SHOWING               
WEAK DISTURBANCES MOVING THROUGH LONGWAVE PATTERN WITH SOME MODEST              
ASSOCIATED AREAS OF PRECIP. ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS VERY LIKELY                
UNDER THESE QUICK MOVING DISTURBANCES. RENWICK                                  
.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. BOTH THE GFS AND ECM SHOW                 
GOOD AGREEMENT WITH CLOSED LOW DROPPING SOUTH ALONG THE OREGON                  
COAST AND A WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVING NORTHWARD INTO FORECAST                
AREA. FORECAST FOLLOWS TIMING OF THESE MODELS. NAM TIMING IS MUCH               
SLOWER. CONFIDENCE RUNNING HIGHER AND POPS WERE PUSHED A BIT                    
HIGHER...PARTICULARLY FOR THE EASTERN HIGHLANDS. THE NEXT ARCTIC                
DISTURBANCE DROPS OVER THE RIDGE AND SOUTHWARD INTO IDAHO BY                    
THURSDAY. THE 13/00Z ECMWF MODEL RUN IS MUCH MORE CONSISTENT WITH               
THE GFS DROPPING THIS DISTURBANCE THROUGH SOUTHEAST IDAHO THURSDAY              
NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING AND POPS               
WERE RAISED SOME HERE AS WELL. GFS 700 MB WINDS AND TEMPERATURES                
BRING FAIRLY COLD AIR DOWN INTO IDAHO TOO. DETAILS OF COLD BOX CAR              
AIR MASS MAKING IT INTO SOUTHEAST IDAHO STILL A LITTLE FUZZY. HAVE              
NUDGED FORECAST TEMPERATURES DOWN A FEW DEGREES IN CONSERVATIVE                 
FASHION. RS                                                                     
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...AT 13/10Z SURFACE COLD FRONT IS JUST WEST OF KBYI WITH A            
FEW GUSTS TO THE MID 40 MPH RANGE NOTED ON MESONET SITES. FRONT                 
EXPECTED TO REACH KPIH BETWEEN 1100-1130Z. LATEST RUC UPDATE ENDS               
SNOW AT KIDA AND KPIH AFTER 15Z...ABOUT 3 HOURS QUICKER THAN                    
PREVIOUSLY ANTICIPATED. SOUTHWEST WINDS 20 TO 30 MPH WILL PERSIST               
THROUGH AT LEAST 21Z...BY THAT TIME THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT               
DECREASES PER THE NAM12. WINDS COULD HANG IN THERE A BIT LONGER AS              
THE SURFACE LOW HAS NOT MOVED EAST OF WYOMING JUST YET. PERSISTENT              
MVFR CEILINGS CONTINUE OVER NIGHT IN AN UNSETTLED PATTERN. NEXT                 
DISTURBANCE SHOULD PUSH SHOWERS THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY                
AFTERNOON. RS                                                                   
&&                                                                              
.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR IDZ017-                
020-021.                                                                        
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 5 AM MST SUNDAY FOR IDZ019-023-025.                  
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 11 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR IDZ022-024.               
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 5 PM MST THIS AFTERNOON FOR IDZ018-                  
031-032.                                                                        
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</pre> id                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA                                          
1149 AM CST FRI DEC 12 2008                                                     
.UPDATED 12/18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...                                          
.SHORT TERM...TODAY                                                             
BIGGEST CONCERN TODAY WILL BE TEMPS.  08Z SFC ANLYS PLACES HIGH OVER            
SWRN MN WITH CDFNT PUSHING THROUGH WI INTO NRN IA...BECOMING A                  
WRMFNT THROUGH THE ERN DAKOTAS.  SFC RIDGE THROUGH HIGH                         
CENTER...FROM KS INTO MN...WILL KEEP WINDS LIGHT AND MIXING DOWN                
WITH OCCASIONAL STRATUS SO EXPECT LITTLE REBOUND THROUGH AT LEAST               
MIDDAY.  HOWEVER HIGH DOES RETREAT WITH INCREASING SWLY WNDS BY                 
AFTERNOON.  GFS RAW TEMPS MOST BULLISH ON WARM UP...WITH NAM/SREF               
NUMBERS COOLER.  CONSIDERING THE MAGNITUDE OF THE COLD AIR IS NOT               
BEING HANDLED BY THE MODELS WELL...HAVE TOWARD OR BELOW EVEN THE                
COOLEST NAM MOS.                                                                
STRATUS MAY BE IN AND OUT TODAY...WITH NAM/GFS/RUC DENDRITIC RH ALL             
SUGGESTING SOME FLURRIES ARE POSSIBLE WITH PATCH OF LOW CLOUDS                  
EXITING SIOUXLAND REGION.                                                       
.LONG TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY                                           
HIGH BUILDS EAST TONIGHT WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION ALREADY ADVANCING              
ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. MODELS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE POSSIBLE                
STRATUS...FOG AND POSSIBLE DRIZZLE ALREADY BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON                
OVER NORTHERN IOWA. FOR THE MOMENT...NOT MUCH SNOW SOUTHWEST OF THE             
AREA THOUGH ANY RETURN OF MOISTURE OVER THE SNOW COVER REMAINING                
ACROSS SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL IOWA IS LIKELY TO PRODUCE SOME FOG AND              
OR STRATUS BY SATURDAY...POSSIBLY LINGERING ACROSS THE AREA INTO                
SUNDAY. BEST AREAS CONTINUE TO APPEAR TO BE THE NORTH AND EAST.                 
SOUNDINGS ALSO SUGGEST SOME DRIZZLE AND LOWER VSBYS WILL CONTINUE               
INTO SATURDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF THE STRONGER WAVE CROSSING THE STATE.              
TEMPS SOMEWHAT OF A CHALLENGE THE NEXT FEW DAYS WITH WARM AIR                   
ARRIVING TONIGHT. SHOULD NOT SEE MUCH OF A DROP IN OVERNIGHT LOWS               
FRI NIGHT WITH DECENT WARM UP ON SATURDAY. GUIDANCE SEEMS A BIT HIGH            
...ESPECIALLY MAV AND HAVE RAISED HIGHS A FEW DEGREES SOUTH AND                 
CENTRAL WHILE LEAVING THE NORTH IN LINE WITH PREVIOUS PACKAGE. THE              
WARMEST AIR SHOULD CROSS THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT...KEEPING MINS               
WELL ABOVE NORMAL. AHEAD OF THE STRONG ARCTIC FRONT ON SUNDAY...SOME            
LIGHT RAIN SHOULD DEVELOP IN THE WARM SECTOR AND SOME SNOW SHOWERS              
BEHIND THE BOUNDARY FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON. RATHER COLD AIR POISED TO             
DROP SOUTH SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY THOUGH MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF ON             
VALUES OF -20C AT H850 WITH THE COLDER AIR LAGGING OVER THE DAKOTAS             
AND MN. WINDS WILL BE QUITE BRISK SUNDAY NIGHT WITH GUSTS TO 30 TO              
35 MPH AND GRADUALLY DIMINISHING MONDAY AS THE HIGH BUILDS ACROSS               
THE REGION. BOTH THE EURO/GFS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT FOR MONDAY NIGHT             
AND TUESDAY WITH HIGH SLIDING EAST AND ZONE OF WARM AIR ADVECTION               
SETTING UP ACROSS A BAROCLINIC ZONE JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE STATE.             
THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF PRECIP...IN THE FORM               
OF LIGHT SNOW. HAVE ADDED CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE SOUTH AND SLIGHTS              
NORTH FOR NOW...FROM PREVIOUS PACKAGE WHICH WAS DRY. IN THE OUT                 
PERIODS EURO HAS BACKED OFF ON PRECIP ON WED NIGHT WHILE GFS STILL              
SHOWS A WEAK SIGNATURE. TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL CONTINUE TO BE            
COLD WITH MONDAY AND TUES NIGHT IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE AND BELOW            
ZERO OVER AT LEAST THE NORTH HALF...AND LOWER TEENS SOUTH. ANOTHER              
WAVE IS EXPECTED BY THE END OF THE WEEK. GFS CONTINUES FASTER AT                
THIS TIME WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE PRECIP BY THURSDAY WHILE THE EURO             
IS ABOUT 12 HOURS SLOWER. PREFER THE SLOWER SOLN AT THIS TIME.                  
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...12/12Z                                                              
STRATUS SHIELD CURRENTLY BISECTS THE FORECAST AREA FROM NW TO SE AND            
WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH EAST OUT OF THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON                 
HOURS. SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL INCREASE TONIGHT AND TRANSPORT LOW LEVEL             
MOISTURE INTO THE NORTH. EXPECT MVFR CIGS SPREADING FROM NW TO SE               
ACROSS IOWA SATURDAY MORNING WITH SOME LIGHT BR ALSO POSSIBLE.                  
&&                                                                              
.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                        
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHORT TERM...BSS                                                                
AVIATION...KINNEY                                                               
LONG TERM...REV                                                                 
</pre> ia                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA                                          
614 AM CST FRI DEC 12 2008                                                      
.SHORT TERM...TODAY                                                             
BIGGEST CONCERN TODAY WILL BE TEMPS.  08Z SFC ANLYS PLACES HIGH OVER            
SWRN MN WITH CDFNT PUSHING THROUGH WI INTO NRN IA...BECOMING A                  
WRMFNT THROUGH THE ERN DAKOTAS.  SFC RIDGE THROUGH HIGH                         
CENTER...FROM KS INTO MN...WILL KEEP WINDS LIGHT AND MIXING DOWN                
WITH OCCASIONAL STRATUS SO EXPECT LITTLE REBOUND THROUGH AT LEAST               
MIDDAY.  HOWEVER HIGH DOES RETREAT WITH INCREASING SWLY WNDS BY                 
AFTERNOON.  GFS RAW TEMPS MOST BULLISH ON WARM UP...WITH NAM/SREF               
NUMBERS COOLER.  CONSIDERING THE MAGNITUDE OF THE COLD AIR IS NOT               
BEING HANDLED BY THE MODELS WELL...HAVE TOWARD OR BELOW EVEN THE                
COOLEST NAM MOS.                                                                
STRATUS MAY BE IN AND OUT TODAY...WITH NAM/GFS/RUC DENDRITIC RH ALL             
SUGGESTING SOME FLURRIES ARE POSSIBLE WITH PATCH OF LOW CLOUDS                  
EXITING SIOUXLAND REGION.                                                       
.LONG TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY                                           
HIGH BUILDS EAST TONIGHT WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION ALREADY ADVANCING              
ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. MODELS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE POSSIBLE                
STRATUS...FOG AND POSSIBLE DRIZZLE ALREADY BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON                
OVER NORTHERN IOWA. FOR THE MOMENT...NOT MUCH SNOW SOUTHWEST OF THE             
AREA THOUGH ANY RETURN OF MOISTURE OVER THE SNOW COVER REMAINING                
ACROSS SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL IOWA IS LIKELY TO PRODUCE SOME FOG AND              
OR STRATUS BY SATURDAY...POSSIBLY LINGERING ACROSS THE AREA INTO                
SUNDAY. BEST AREAS CONTINUE TO APPEAR TO BE THE NORTH AND EAST.                 
SOUNDINGS ALSO SUGGEST SOME DRIZZLE AND LOWER VSBYS WILL CONTINUE               
INTO SATURDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF THE STRONGER WAVE CROSSING THE STATE.              
TEMPS SOMEWHAT OF A CHALLENGE THE NEXT FEW DAYS WITH WARM AIR                   
ARRIVING TONIGHT. SHOULD NOT SEE MUCH OF A DROP IN OVERNIGHT LOWS               
FRI NIGHT WITH DECENT WARM UP ON SATURDAY. GUIDANCE SEEMS A BIT HIGH            
...ESPECIALLY MAV AND HAVE RAISED HIGHS A FEW DEGREES SOUTH AND                 
CENTRAL WHILE LEAVING THE NORTH IN LINE WITH PREVIOUS PACKAGE. THE              
WARMEST AIR SHOULD CROSS THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT...KEEPING MINS               
WELL ABOVE NORMAL. AHEAD OF THE STRONG ARCTIC FRONT ON SUNDAY...SOME            
LIGHT RAIN SHOULD DEVELOP IN THE WARM SECTOR AND SOME SNOW SHOWERS              
BEHIND THE BOUNDARY FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON. RATHER COLD AIR POISED TO             
DROP SOUTH SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY THOUGH MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF ON             
VALUES OF -20C AT H850 WITH THE COLDER AIR LAGGING OVER THE DAKOTAS             
AND MN. WINDS WILL BE QUITE BRISK SUNDAY NIGHT WITH GUSTS TO 30 TO              
35 MPH AND GRADUALLY DIMINISHING MONDAY AS THE HIGH BUILDS ACROSS               
THE REGION. BOTH THE EURO/GFS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT FOR MONDAY NIGHT             
AND TUESDAY WITH HIGH SLIDING EAST AND ZONE OF WARM AIR ADVECTION               
SETTING UP ACROSS A BAROCLINIC ZONE JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE STATE.             
THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF PRECIP...IN THE FORM               
OF LIGHT SNOW. HAVE ADDED CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE SOUTH AND SLIGHTS              
NORTH FOR NOW...FROM PREVIOUS PACKAGE WHICH WAS DRY. IN THE OUT                 
PERIODS EURO HAS BACKED OFF ON PRECIP ON WED NIGHT WHILE GFS STILL              
SHOWS A WEAK SIGNATURE. TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL CONTINUE TO BE            
COLD WITH MONDAY AND TUES NIGHT IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE AND BELOW            
ZERO OVER AT LEAST THE NORTH HALF...AND LOWER TEENS SOUTH. ANOTHER              
WAVE IS EXPECTED BY THE END OF THE WEEK. GFS CONTINUES FASTER AT                
THIS TIME WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE PRECIP BY THURSDAY WHILE THE EURO             
IS ABOUT 12 HOURS SLOWER. PREFER THE SLOWER SOLN AT THIS TIME.                  
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...12/12Z                                                              
PRIMARY CONCERN THROUGH PERIOD WILL BE CLOUD TRENDS.  PATCHY MVFR               
STRATUS WILL AFFECT ALL SITES THIS MORNING.  PREVIOUS POTENTIAL FOR             
IFR CIGS HAS DIMINISHED.  ADDITIONAL MVFR CIGS MAY DEVELOP THIS                 
AFTERNOON OR TONIGHT AT ALL SITES...BUT POTENTIAL NOT GREAT ENOUGH              
TO MENTION AT THE MOMENT.                                                       
&&                                                                              
.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                        
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHORT TERM/AVIATION...BSS                                                       
LONG TERM...REV                                                                 
</pre> ia                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA                                          
1239 AM CST FRI DEC 12 2008                                                     
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT                                                           
A BAND OF PRECIP IS HEADING QUICKLY SOUTH OUT OF IOWA THIS AFTERNOON            
AFTER DEPOSITING A LIGHT DUSTING AT A FEW LOCATIONS. MORE LIGHT SNOW            
IS UPSTREAM OVER PORTIONS OF THE DAKOTAS AND MINNESOTA...AND WILL               
IMPACT THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT. OF THE SHORT RANGE DETERMINISTIC              
MODELS AND THE SREF...THE GFS AND RUC HAVE THE BEST HANDLE ON THE               
CURRENT SNOW IN THE DAKOTAS. THE RUC ALSO MODELED THE MORNING                   
WEATHER WELL. ADDITIONAL SHORT WAVE ENERGY DROPPING SOUTHEAST ALONG             
A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH WILL SUPPORT ADDITIONAL LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS                
TONIGHT. MODEST FORCING AND MOISTURE WILL LIMIT ANY ACCUMULATION TO             
A HALF INCH OR LESS. A STRATUS DECK SHOULD KEEP OVERNIGHT TEMPS FROM            
COMPLETELY BOTTOMING OUT...BUT STILL STAYED BELOW THE COOLEST                   
FWC/NGM MOS GIVEN THE STRONG CAA AND LINGERING SNOW PACK.                       
.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THRU THURSDAY                                               
WL SEE TRANSITION FROM PREDOMINANT NORTHWEST FLOW TO SOUTHWEST FLOW             
DURING THIS PERIOD.  SOME LINGERING SNOW FLURRIES MAY REMAIN ON                 
FRIDAY MORNING ACRS THE NORTHWEST...HOWEVER WL BEGIN TO SEE WAA                 
INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY AS SFC RIDGING SLIDES TO THE EAST.  HAVE               
STAYED AT OR ABOVE GUIDANCE IN THE SOUTH AND WEST WHERE CONDITIONS              
WL BE GOOD FAR WARMING...LITTLE SNOW COVER AND DECENT SOUTH TO                  
SOUTHWEST SFC WINDS.  FARTHER NORTH...SNOW COVER AND MORE CLOUDINESS            
WL PUT SOME LIMIT ON THE AMOUNT OF WARMING. THE WARMING WL CONTINUE             
INTO FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY AS HEIGHTS INCREASE IN RESPONSE TO               
DEEPENING WESTERN TROF.  WL BEGIN TO SEE HIGHER DEWPOINTS IMPINGE               
UPON THE STATE ON SATURDAY AND ANTICIPATE THE DEVELOPMENT OF STRATUS            
AS THE WARMER AND RELATIVELY MORE MOIST AIR TRAVERSES THE COOLER                
GROUND.  NAM AND GFS PRODUCE SOME LIGHT PCPN FROM A FAIR AMOUNT OF              
ISENTROPIC LIFT AND HAVE INCLUDED SOME LOW POPS AS WELL.  SOUNDINGS             
ARE QUITE SATURATED IN THE LOWER LEVELS BY LATE SATURDAY AND THIS               
CONTINUES INTO EARLY SUNDAY.  ANTICIPATE LOW CLOUDS AND DRIZZLE/LGT             
RAIN INTO SATURDAY NIGHT AS WARM SECTOR REMAINS OVER THE STATE.                 
WITH MORE MOISTURE PULLING INTO IA OVER THE SNOW COVER IN THE                   
NORTH...WOULDN/T BE SURPRISED TO HAVE ADVECTION FOG DEVELOP IN THOSE            
LOCATIONS.  TEMPS WL HOLD STEADY ON SATURDAY NIGHT AS WARM SOUTHERLY            
FLOW PERSIST ALL NIGHT.  SFC LOW TRANSITS WESTERN IA ON SUNDAY                  
MORNING WITH COLD FRONT QUICKLY PUSHING THROUGH THE STATE BY                    
AFTERNOON. ANTICIPATE EARLY HIGHS IN THE WEST WITH TEMPERATURES                 
CRASHING FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE AFTERNOON BEHIND THE FRONT. WL            
LIKELY SEE SOME SHOWERS DEVELOP EAST OF I35 BY LATE MORNING/EARLY               
AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY BUT MOST SIGNIFICANT PCPN WL BE TO              
THE EAST AS THE MOISTURE AXIS SHIFTS INTO IL/WI BY SUNDAY EVENING.              
PCPN WL REMAIN IN THE FAR SOUTHEAST DURING THE NIGHT AND MAY SEE                
SOME FREEZING RAIN AS THE SHALLOW COLD AIR UNDERCUTS THE STRONG                 
SOUTHERLY AND MOIST FLOW.  HOWEVER...ONLY ANTICIPATE A BRIEF PERIOD             
OF THIS BEFORE SOUNDING CRASH BELOW FREEZING WITH ALL SNOW BEFORE               
ENDING IN MOST LOCATIONS BY EARLY MONDAY MORNING.  ARCTIC AIR THEN              
SETTLES INTO THE STATE WITH TEMPERATURES A GOOD 20 TO 30 DEGREES                
COOLER THAN SUNDAY.                                                             
CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST BEYOND MONDAY IS RATHER LOW AS SOUTHWEST             
FLOW PERSISTS.  NEW 12Z RUNS OF THE GFS AND ECMWF WOULD INDICATE                
ANOTHER SYSTEM BRINGING SNOW TO THE STATE BY TUESDAY WITH SOME BREAK            
ON WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY THURSDAY PRIOR TO ANOTHER SYSTEM LATE IN THE            
WORK WEEK.  THE GRIDS DONT NECESSARILY REFLECT THIS NEWER DATA AS               
EXTENDED GRIDS HAD ALREADY BEEN COMPLETED.  SOME MODIFICATION TO                
THESE LATER PERIODS WL BE LIKELY AS TIMING BECOME BETTER DEFINED.               
TEMPS AT OR BELOW NORMAL APPEAR TO REMAIN FOR MUCH OF THE EXTENDED              
AS WELL.                                                                        
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...12/06Z                                                              
PRIMARY CONCERN THROUGH PERIOD WILL BE CLOUD TRENDS.  PERIODS OF                
MVFR STRATUS WILL AFFECT ALL SITES EXCEPT MCW EARLY THIS MORNING.               
THERE IS ALSO SOME POTENTIAL FOR IFR CIGS AT FOD WITH SUB 1000FT                
CIGS OVER SERN MN MOVE SW BUT CHANCES NOT GREAT ENOUGH TO MENTION AT            
THE MOMENT.  ADDITIONAL MVFR CIGS MAY DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AT ALL             
SITES...BUT ONLY MENTIONED AT MCW/ALO WHERE CHANCES APPEAR BETTER               
FOR NOW.                                                                        
&&                                                                              
.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                        
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHORT TERM...KINNEY/DONAVON                                                     
LONG TERM...COGIL                                                               
AVIATION...SMALL                                                                
</pre> ia                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS                                          
259 PM CST SAT DEC 13 2008                                                      
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
DAYS 1-2...                                                                     
MAIN QUESTIONS WILL BE WHAT HAPPENS WITH THE FRONT COMING DOWN,                 
HOW FAST TEMPS FALL, WHAT THE WINDS WILL DO, AND IF WE GET ANY PRECIP.          
00Z UPPER AIR OBS CONTINUE TO SHOW A LARGE TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE              
WESTERN CONUS WITH 200-230 M HEIGHT FALLS AT 500MB. THE SFC LOW                 
HAS BEEN DEEPENING ACROSS WY THIS MORNING, WITH GOOD SOUTHERLY                  
WINDS CONTINUING OVER WESTERN KS. GRADIENT HAS WEAKENED IN ALL BUT              
THE SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES, SO WILL KEEP THE WIND ADVISORY FOR                   
THERE GOING UNTIL 00Z BUT HAVE CANCELED THE WESTERN COUNTIES. WARM              
POCKET AT 850MB CONTINUES ACROSS THE WESTERN PLAINS WITH TEMPS AT               
12Z AROUND 10 C. HOWEVER, THE COLD AIR IS JUST TO OUR NORTH, WITH               
THE ARCTIC FRONT ALREADY DOWN INTO SD AND WY AS OF 20Z. THE FRONT               
SHOULD CONTINUE TO PLUNGE SOUTH TONIGHT, MOVING INTO OUR FAR                    
NORTHERN COUNTIES AROUND 12Z. THINK THAT SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF                
THE FRONT SHOULD KEEP READINGS TONIGHT FAIRLY MILD, SO CONTINUED                
WITH LOWS IN THE 30S AND 40S.                                                   
THE FRONT SHOULD PUSH THROUGH FAIRLY QUICKLY TOMORROW MORNING,                  
PASSING THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF OUR COUNTIES BY 18Z. GOING                      
FORECAST HAD FALLING TEMPS AFTER THE FRONT COMES THROUGH, AND THIS              
CONTINUES TO SEEM REASONABLE. NORTHERLY WINDS WILL ALSO BECOME                  
FAIRLY STRONG BEHIND THE FRONT, ALTHOUGH WITH THE 850MB TROUGH                  
AXIS OVERHEAD THERE IS SOME QUESTION ON HOW STRONG WINDS WILL GET.              
NAM AND GFS BOTH HAVE ONLY 20 TO 25 KTS OFF THE DECK DURING THE                 
PEAK PERIOD OF MOMENTUM TRANSFER IN THE AFTERNOON. THE NORMALLY                 
FAIRLY WINDY RUC ALSO KEEPS THE HIGHEST WINDS TO OUR NORTHEAST.                 
THINK THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SOME BRIEF ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS RIGHT               
BEHIND THE FRONT, BUT WILL HOLD OFF ON HEADLINES FOR NOW.                       
THE UPPER TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS                   
SHOULD ALSO HELP BRING SOME PRECIP TO THE REGION. HOWEVER, IT                   
LOOKS LIKE MOST OF THE LIFT WILL BE CONCENTRATED TO OUR NORTH, AND              
THERE WILL NOT BE MUCH MOISTURE TO WORK WITH. STILL, THERE IS A                 
DECENT MID LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE HEADED DOWN INTO THE CWA BY                    
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING, AND MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW A GOOD                   
SATURATED LAYER FROM 600MB DOWN CLOSE TO THE SFC. CANNOT                        
COMPLETELY RULE OUT SOME LIGHT SNOW BEING SQUEEZED OUT, SO WILL                 
KEEP SOME LOW POPS IN FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WHAT                    
LITTLE MOISTURE WE HAVE DISAPPEARS AFTER 06Z, SO ANYTHING THAT IS               
GOING SHOULD TAPER OFF BY THEN.                                                 
THE NORTHERN BRANCH OF THE UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE EASTWARD                  
INTO THE MIDWEST WHILE THE REST OF IT REMAINS OVER THE WESTERN                  
CONUS. THE ARCTIC SFC HIGH WILL BUILD DOWN INTO THE PLAINS BY                   
TOMORROW NIGHT, AND WITH WINDS DIMINISHING WE SHOULD GET DOWN INTO              
THE SINGLE DIGITS DESPITE CLOUDS. THE COLD SFC HIGH WILL REMAIN IN              
PLACE FOR MONDAY WITH UPSLOPE KEEPING MUCH OF OUR CLOUDS AROUND,                
ALTHOUGH SOME BREAKS ARE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. 850MB TEMPS WILL              
BE AROUND -10 C, AND NOT MUCH MIXING WILL BE GOING ON. WILL                     
CONTINUE TO KEEP HIGHS RANGING FROM THE MID TEENS F IN THE NORTH                
TO THE LOW 20S IN THE FAR SOUTH.                                                
DAYS 3-7...                                                                     
ALL THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO POINT TOWARD A WEEK MARKED              
BY PERIODS OF MUCH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND A FEW PERIODS OF               
MAINLY LIGHT FREEZING OR FROZEN PRECIPITATION. THE GFS/ECMWF/UKMET              
AND CANADIAN ALL INDICATE THAT THE 500 MB RIDGE HAS SHIFTED WEST                
INTO THE GULF OF ALASKA AND EASTERN PACIFIC. THIS IS ALLOWING THE               
MEAN TROUGH POSITION TO SET UP OVER WESTERN PORTIONS OF NORTH                   
AMERICA. OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS THE UPPER FLOW WILL HAVE A                      
SOUTHWESTERLY COMPONENT.                                                        
VERY COLD TEMPERATURES THAT WERE PUSHING DOWN INTO THE NORTHERN                 
CONUS THIS AFTERNOON WILL PUSH SOUTH AND TAKE UP RESIDENCE OVER THE             
CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.  THE HI-RES ECMWF            
AND GFS BOTH SHOW THIS SIGNAL.  THE MODELS ALSO INDICATE A WEAK WAVE            
MOVING THROUGH THE UPPER FLOW ON TUESDAY AND THEN SHOW A CLOSED                 
UPPER LOW ALONG THE WEST COAST EJECTING EASTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL               
PLAINS AROUND THURSDAY. THE MODELS SHOW SOME WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF            
BOTH WAVE WITH ABOVE FREEZING 850 MB TEMPERATURES MOVING BACK INTO              
SW KANSAS. THIS FAR OUT IS WILL BE DIFFICULT TO PIN DOWN THESE FINER            
DETAILS IN THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST AS ANY WEAK DISTURBANCES IN THE             
FLOW WILL CAUSE THE ARCTIC AIR TO UNDULATE BACK AND FORTH. THE                  
MODELS INDICATE THAT TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB BACK ABOVE FREEZING ON             
THURSDAY AHEAD OF THE STRONGER WAVE BUT THERE IS A LOT OF                       
UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS DUE TO THE NATURE OF THE ARCTIC AIR IN THE                
LOWER LEVELS.  ONE CHANGE WAS TO INTRODUCE FREEZING PRECIPITATION TO            
THE FORECAST ON TUESDAY AND AGAIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.                
MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT THE MOISTURE WILL BE FAIRLY                       
SHALLOW...ONLY UP TO ABOUT 850 MB. WARM ADVECTION IN THE SATURATED              
LAYER SHOULD RESULT IN FREEZING DRIZZLE AS RETURN FLOW SETS UP AHEAD            
OF THE UPPER DISTURBANCES.                                                      
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD.  AN ARCTIC              
COLD FRONT WILL PLUNGE SOUTH ACROSS SOUTHWEST KANSAS SUNDAY MORNING             
WITH MVFR CIGS DEVELOPING BEHIND THE FRONT.                                     
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
DDC  42  45   6  18 /   0  20  20   0                                           
GCK  35  37   4  18 /   0  20  10   0                                           
EHA  40  43   9  23 /   0  10  10   0                                           
LBL  41  45   9  21 /   0  10  10   0                                           
HYS  34  34   3  15 /   0  20  10   0                                           
P28  46  55   7  20 /   0  20  20   0                                           
&&                                                                              
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR KSZ046-065-066-                 
079>081-089-090.                                                                
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
FN26/02/02                                                                      
</pre> ks                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS                                             
1232 PM CST SAT DEC 13 2008                                                     
.UPDATE...                                                                      
PER PREVIOUS DISCUSSION/THOUGHTS AND AFTER COLLABORATION...HAVE                 
UPGRADED TO HIGH WIND WARNING FOR A PORTION OF SOUTHEAST KANSAS                 
AND THE FLINT HILLS UNTIL 6 PM. FREQUENT GUSTS TO 50 MPH HAVE                   
BEEN OCCURRING...WITH INCREASED SUN/MIXING RESULTING IN POTENTIAL               
FOR LOCALIZED GUSTS OF 55 TO 60 MPH THIS AFTERNOON.                             
ALSO EXPANDED THE RED FLAG WARNING FOR THE REST OF SOUTHEAST                    
KANSAS AS WELL.                                                                 
KED                                                                             
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1132 AM CST SAT DEC 13 2008/                        
UPDATE...                                                                       
VERY STRONG SOUTH WINDS WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE               
EVENING. LOCAL PRESSURE GRADIENT MAGNITUDE OFF THE RUC/GFS ALONE                
SUPPORT THE GOING WIND ADVISORY...WITH ADDED CONTRIBUTION OF LOW                
LEVEL MIXING/MOMENTUM TRANSFER MAKING FOR HIGH END EVENT FOR AREAS              
EAST OF THE KANSAS TURNPIKE THIS AFTERNOON. SATELLITE TRENDS DO                 
SUGGEST A BIT MORE SUNSHINE IS IN THE OFFING FOR THE FLINT HILLS                
AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS SO HAVE CONTEMPLATED THE POSSIBILITY OF AN                 
UPGRADE TO HEADLINE. ALREADY HAVE SEEN GUST TO 55 MPH AT CFV AT                 
17Z...WITH THE PROFILER AT NEODESHA SHOWING 55-60KTS AT 750                     
METERS. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR TRENDS THRU 18Z AND COLLABORATE                
WITH ADJACENT OFFICES ON ANY POSSIBLE UPGRADE OF WIND HEADLINE.                 
KED                                                                             
AVIATION...18Z TAFS KRSL/KSLN/KHUT/KICT/KCNU                                    
VERY STRONG SOUTH WINDS WILL CONTINUE THRU MUCH OF THE FORECAST                 
VALID PERIOD...BEFORE A STRONG ARCTIC COLD FRONT SWEEPS SOUTH                   
ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS TOWARD END OF FORECAST PERIOD...WITH WIND                 
SHIFT TO THE NORTH. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED...THOUGH SOME CHANCE                
FOR MVFR CIGS TO AFFECT SOUTHEAST KANSAS/KCNU TAF TONIGHT INTO                  
SUNDAY MORNING AHEAD OF FRONTAL PASSAGE.                                        
KED                                                                             
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 544 AM CST SAT DEC 13 2008/                          
AVIATION...12Z TAFS KRSL/KSLN/KHUT/KICT/KCNU                                    
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR ALL TERMINALS INTO THE AFTERNOON                
HOURS...HOWEVER SOUTH WINDS WILL INCREASE DRAMATICALLY OVER SOUTH               
CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS TODAY. SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS OVER                  
30KTS...WITH GUSTS AROUND 45KTS ARE EXPECTED TO AFFECT ALL TAF                  
SITES EXCEPT FOR RSL TAF SITE WHERE WIND SPEEDS COULD BE SLIGHTLY               
LOWER BUT STILL GUSTY NONE THE LESS. MVFR CIGS WILL MATERIALIZE OVER            
CNU TAF SITE LATER THIS AFTERNOON AS LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE                         
INCREASES...SOUTHEAST KANSAS COULD EVEN SEE SOME IFR CIGS EARLY                 
SUNDAY MORNING.                                                                 
JAKUB                                                                           
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 345 AM CST SAT DEC 13 2008/                          
DISCUSSION...                                                                   
TODAY:                                                                          
ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN UNDERWAY. SURFACE WINDS WILL GRADUALLY                   
INCREASE THROUGHOUT THE MORNING..WITH ADVISORY CRITERIA LIKELY                  
BEING MET PRIOR TO GOING ADVISORY AND WILL RAMP IT UP SOONER.                   
FORECAST MEAN SEA LEVEL PRESSURE GRADIENT SUGGEST WINDS COULD                   
FLIRT WITH WARNING CRITERIA WITH ADDITIONAL MIXING. WHERE GRADIENT              
IS TIGHTEST...COMBO OF CLOUDS/ROUGHER TERRAIN IN SOUTHEAST KS AND               
CLIMATOLOGY WOULD FAVOR HOLDING OFF ON A HIGH WIND WARNING. RAPID               
INFLUX OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TOWARDS 0000 UTC IN FAR SOUTHEAST KS               
COULD LEAD TO STRAY SHOWERS/SPRINKLES/DRIZZLE. GIVEN MODEL                      
PROPENSITY TO BE FAST WITH MOISTURE AND INITIAL DRY AIR...WILL                  
KEEP AFTERNOON FORECAST DRY AND START PRECIPITATION AT 0000 UTC.                
WILL ALSO EXPAND RED FLAG WARNING A BIT BASED ON LATEST FIRE                    
DANGER GRIDS.                                                                   
TONIGHT:                                                                        
MEAN SEA LEVEL PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS AT OR ABOVE ADVISORY                   
CRITERIA WELL INTO THE NIGHT AND HAVE EXTENDED IT UNTIL MIDNIGHT.               
SUSPECT DAY SHIFT WILL EXTEND THROUGH 1200 UTC IN FAR SOUTHEAST                 
KS...GIVEN STOUT GRADIENT. STRONG WINDS WILL LEAD TO RATHER BALMY               
MINIMUMS FOR MOST AREAS. FRONT WILL LIKELY BE THROUGH RSL AT 1200               
UTC AND COULD BE CLOSE TO SLN/GBD BY THEN IF FASTER EUROPEAN                    
CENTRE FOR MEDIUM RANGE WEATHER FORECASTS MODEL VERIFIES. GIVEN                 
THE MAGNITUDE OF THE COLD AIR...THAT IS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE.                     
SUN-SUN NIGHT:                                                                  
LATEST NORTH AMERICAN MODEL/GLOBAL FORECAST SYSTEM MODEL RATHER                 
CLOSE WITH TIMING OF FRONTAL PASSAGE DURING THE DAY...BUT ARE BOTH              
SLOWER THAN THE 1200 UTC EUROPEAN CENTRE FOR MEDIUM RANGE WEATHER               
FORECASTS MODEL. SUSPECT SOMETHING IN BETWEEN IS PROBABLY THE BEST              
BET AT THIS TIME. REGARDLESS...TEMPERATURES WILL PLUMMET BEHIND                 
FRONT AS COLD/DRY AIR SPILLS INTO THE AREA. PRECIPITATION CHANCES               
ARE LOOKING LESS LIKELY IN MOISTURE AHEAD FRONT WHICH APPEARS TO                
BE SHIFTING EAST. BETTER CHANCES APPEAR TO BE SUN NIGHT IN WARM                 
AIR ADVECTION AHEAD OF ELEVATED COLD FRONT. PRECIPITATION TYPE                  
WILL TRANSITION FROM RAIN TO WINTRY MIX DURING THE EVENING                      
GENERALLY EAST OF I-35. DO NOT EXPECT ANY SIGNIFICANT ICING OR                  
SNOW ACCUMULATION AT THIS TIME...BUT COULD WARRANT AN ADVISORY DUE              
TO RAPID FREEZING OF MOISTURE ON ROADS FROM LIGHT RAIN AND/OR                   
BRIEF FREEZING RAIN. PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE ALL SNOW BY MIDNIGHT               
IN SOUTHEAST KS. STARTED TRENDING DOWN DEWPOINTS...BUT LIKELY NOT               
FAR ENOUGH GIVEN READINGS UPSTREAM.                                             
MON-TUE:                                                                        
NIXED RESIDUAL CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION DURING THE DAY ON                       
MON...BUT BOTH GLOBAL FORECAST SYSTEM MODEL/EUROPEAN CENTRE FOR                 
MEDIUM RANGE WEATHER FORECASTS MODEL SHOWING RETURN FLOW                        
DEVELOPING WITH A BETTER CHANCE OF OVERRUNNING OVER THE ENTIRE                  
AREA. INTIALLY IT SHOULD BE SNOW OVER THE ENTIRE AREA...BUT AS                  
LEVELS WARM...MAY SEE SWITCH TO LIGHT FREEZING RAIN MAINLY OVER                 
SOUTHEAST KS TUE AFTERNOON.                                                     
WED-FRI:                                                                        
NO CHANGES TO GOING FORECAST. -HOWERTON                                         
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
WICHITA-KICT    61  50  56  12 /  10  10  10  20                                
HUTCHINSON      61  45  50   9 /   0  10  10  20                                
NEWTON          60  48  56   9 /  10  10  10  20                                
ELDORADO        59  51  56  11 /  10  10  10  30                                
WINFIELD-KWLD   62  52  59  14 /  10  10  10  30                                
RUSSELL         63  33  33   4 /   0  10  20  20                                
GREAT BEND      63  37  37   4 /   0  10  20  20                                
SALINA          61  39  41   8 /   0  10  10  20                                
MCPHERSON       60  43  48   8 /   0  10  10  20                                
COFFEYVILLE     59  54  63  22 /  10  10  20  50                                
CHANUTE         58  52  61  15 /  10  10  20  40                                
IOLA            58  52  62  13 /  10  10  20  40                                
PARSONS-KPPF    58  53  62  21 /  10  10  20  40                                
&&                                                                              
.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR KSZ072-                     
093>096-098>100.                                                                
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR KSZ049>053-                  
067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100.                                                
WIND ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR                
KSZ072-093>096-098>100.                                                         
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR KSZ047>052-067-068-               
082-083-091-092.                                                                
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR KSZ053-069>071.                    
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</pre> ks                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS                                             
1132 AM CST SAT DEC 13 2008                                                     
.UPDATE...                                                                      
VERY STRONG SOUTH WINDS WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE               
EVENING. LOCAL PRESSURE GRADIENT MAGNITUDE OFF THE RUC/GFS ALONE                
SUPPORT THE GOING WIND ADVISORY...WITH ADDED CONTRIBUTION OF LOW                
LEVEL MIXING/MOMENTUM TRANSFER MAKING FOR HIGH END EVENT FOR AREAS              
EAST OF THE KANSAS TURNPIKE THIS AFTERNOON. SATELLITE TRENDS DO                 
SUGGEST A BIT MORE SUNSHINE IS IN THE OFFING FOR THE FLINT HILLS                
AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS SO HAVE CONTEMPLATED THE POSSIBILITY OF AN                 
UPGRADE TO HEADLINE. ALREADY HAVE SEEN GUST TO 55 MPH AT CFV AT                 
17Z...WITH THE PROFILER AT NEODESHA SHOWING 55-60KTS AT 750                     
METERS. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR TRENDS THRU 18Z AND COLLABORATE                
WITH ADJACENT OFFICES ON ANY POSSIBLE UPGRADE OF WIND HEADLINE.                 
KED                                                                             
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...18Z TAFS KRSL/KSLN/KHUT/KICT/KCNU                                   
VERY STRONG SOUTH WINDS WILL CONTINUE THRU MUCH OF THE FORECAST                 
VALID PERIOD...BEFORE A STRONG ARCTIC COLD FRONT SWEEPS SOUTH                   
ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS TOWARD END OF FORECAST PERIOD...WITH WIND                 
SHIFT TO THE NORTH. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED...THOUGH SOME CHANCE                
FOR MVFR CIGS TO AFFECT SOUTHEAST KANSAS/KCNU TAF TONIGHT INTO                  
SUNDAY MORNING AHEAD OF FRONTAL PASSAGE.                                        
KED                                                                             
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 544 AM CST SAT DEC 13 2008/                         
AVIATION...12Z TAFS KRSL/KSLN/KHUT/KICT/KCNU                                    
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR ALL TERMINALS INTO THE AFTERNOON                
HOURS...HOWEVER SOUTH WINDS WILL INCREASE DRAMATICALLY OVER SOUTH               
CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS TODAY. SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS OVER                  
30KTS...WITH GUSTS AROUND 45KTS ARE EXPECTED TO AFFECT ALL TAF                  
SITES EXCEPT FOR RSL TAF SITE WHERE WIND SPEEDS COULD BE SLIGHTLY               
LOWER BUT STILL GUSTY NONE THE LESS. MVFR CIGS WILL MATERIALIZE OVER            
CNU TAF SITE LATER THIS AFTERNOON AS LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE                         
INCREASES...SOUTHEAST KANSAS COULD EVEN SEE SOME IFR CIGS EARLY                 
SUNDAY MORNING.                                                                 
JAKUB                                                                           
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 345 AM CST SAT DEC 13 2008/                          
DISCUSSION...                                                                   
TODAY:                                                                          
ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN UNDERWAY. SURFACE WINDS WILL GRADUALLY                   
INCREASE THROUGHOUT THE MORNING..WITH ADVISORY CRITERIA LIKELY                  
BEING MET PRIOR TO GOING ADVISORY AND WILL RAMP IT UP SOONER.                   
FORECAST MEAN SEA LEVEL PRESSURE GRADIENT SUGGEST WINDS COULD                   
FLIRT WITH WARNING CRITERIA WITH ADDITIONAL MIXING. WHERE GRADIENT              
IS TIGHTEST...COMBO OF CLOUDS/ROUGHER TERRAIN IN SOUTHEAST KS AND               
CLIMATOLOGY WOULD FAVOR HOLDING OFF ON A HIGH WIND WARNING. RAPID               
INFLUX OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TOWARDS 0000 UTC IN FAR SOUTHEAST KS               
COULD LEAD TO STRAY SHOWERS/SPRINKLES/DRIZZLE. GIVEN MODEL                      
PROPENSITY TO BE FAST WITH MOISTURE AND INITIAL DRY AIR...WILL                  
KEEP AFTERNOON FORECAST DRY AND START PRECIPITATION AT 0000 UTC.                
WILL ALSO EXPAND RED FLAG WARNING A BIT BASED ON LATEST FIRE                    
DANGER GRIDS.                                                                   
TONIGHT:                                                                        
MEAN SEA LEVEL PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS AT OR ABOVE ADVISORY                   
CRITERIA WELL INTO THE NIGHT AND HAVE EXTENDED IT UNTIL MIDNIGHT.               
SUSPECT DAY SHIFT WILL EXTEND THROUGH 1200 UTC IN FAR SOUTHEAST                 
KS...GIVEN STOUT GRADIENT. STRONG WINDS WILL LEAD TO RATHER BALMY               
MINIMUMS FOR MOST AREAS. FRONT WILL LIKELY BE THROUGH RSL AT 1200               
UTC AND COULD BE CLOSE TO SLN/GBD BY THEN IF FASTER EUROPEAN                    
CENTRE FOR MEDIUM RANGE WEATHER FORECASTS MODEL VERIFIES. GIVEN                 
THE MAGNITUDE OF THE COLD AIR...THAT IS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE.                     
SUN-SUN NIGHT:                                                                  
LATEST NORTH AMERICAN MODEL/GLOBAL FORECAST SYSTEM MODEL RATHER                 
CLOSE WITH TIMING OF FRONTAL PASSAGE DURING THE DAY...BUT ARE BOTH              
SLOWER THAN THE 1200 UTC EUROPEAN CENTRE FOR MEDIUM RANGE WEATHER               
FORECASTS MODEL. SUSPECT SOMETHING IN BETWEEN IS PROBABLY THE BEST              
BET AT THIS TIME. REGARDLESS...TEMPERATURES WILL PLUMMET BEHIND                 
FRONT AS COLD/DRY AIR SPILLS INTO THE AREA. PRECIPITATION CHANCES               
ARE LOOKING LESS LIKELY IN MOISTURE AHEAD FRONT WHICH APPEARS TO                
BE SHIFTING EAST. BETTER CHANCES APPEAR TO BE SUN NIGHT IN WARM                 
AIR ADVECTION AHEAD OF ELEVATED COLD FRONT. PRECIPITATION TYPE                  
WILL TRANSITION FROM RAIN TO WINTRY MIX DURING THE EVENING                      
GENERALLY EAST OF I-35. DO NOT EXPECT ANY SIGNIFICANT ICING OR                  
SNOW ACCUMULATION AT THIS TIME...BUT COULD WARRANT AN ADVISORY DUE              
TO RAPID FREEZING OF MOISTURE ON ROADS FROM LIGHT RAIN AND/OR                   
BRIEF FREEZING RAIN. PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE ALL SNOW BY MIDNIGHT               
IN SOUTHEAST KS. STARTED TRENDING DOWN DEWPOINTS...BUT LIKELY NOT               
FAR ENOUGH GIVEN READINGS UPSTREAM.                                             
MON-TUE:                                                                        
NIXED RESIDUAL CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION DURING THE DAY ON                       
MON...BUT BOTH GLOBAL FORECAST SYSTEM MODEL/EUROPEAN CENTRE FOR                 
MEDIUM RANGE WEATHER FORECASTS MODEL SHOWING RETURN FLOW                        
DEVELOPING WITH A BETTER CHANCE OF OVERRUNNING OVER THE ENTIRE                  
AREA. INTIALLY IT SHOULD BE SNOW OVER THE ENTIRE AREA...BUT AS                  
LEVELS WARM...MAY SEE SWITCH TO LIGHT FREEZING RAIN MAINLY OVER                 
SOUTHEAST KS TUE AFTERNOON.                                                     
WED-FRI:                                                                        
NO CHANGES TO GOING FORECAST. -HOWERTON                                         
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
WICHITA-KICT    61  50  56  12 /  10  10  10  20                                
HUTCHINSON      61  45  50   9 /   0  10  10  20                                
NEWTON          60  48  56   9 /  10  10  10  20                                
ELDORADO        59  51  56  11 /  10  10  10  30                                
WINFIELD-KWLD   62  52  59  14 /  10  10  10  30                                
RUSSELL         63  33  33   4 /   0  10  20  20                                
GREAT BEND      63  37  37   4 /   0  10  20  20                                
SALINA          61  39  41   8 /   0  10  10  20                                
MCPHERSON       60  43  48   8 /   0  10  10  20                                
COFFEYVILLE     59  54  63  22 /  10  20  20  50                                
CHANUTE         58  52  61  15 /  10  20  20  40                                
IOLA            58  52  62  13 /  10  20  20  40                                
PARSONS-KPPF    58  53  62  21 /  10  20  20  40                                
&&                                                                              
.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR KSZ053-069>072-                    
093>096-098>100.                                                                
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR KSZ049>053-                  
067>072-082-083-091>094-098.                                                    
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR KSZ047>052-067-068-               
082-083-091-092.                                                                
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</pre> ks                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME                                             
933 PM EST SAT DEC 13 2008                                                      
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT WITH MOSTLY CLEAR                   
SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. CLOUDS WILL MOVE IN FROM THE WEST SUNDAY                 
INTO MONDAY WHILE WARMER AIR BEGINS TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION. A                
COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT...WITH HIGH PRESSURE              
BUILDING EAST LATER TUESDAY.                                                    
&&                                                                              
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...                                                  
SEE MARINE SECTION.                                                             
UPDATED THE GRIDS/ZFP TONIGHT FOR TEMPS TO DROP THEM BACK ESP                   
DOWNEAST AND EASTERN SECTIONS. LATEST RUC13 SFC TEMPS SPOT ON FOR               
THE MOST PART W/READINGS ACROSS THE N AND W ALREADY DROPPING BELOW              
ZERO. DOWNEAST AND THE COAST FALLING BACK INTO THE LOWER TEENS                  
ATTM AND STILL PLENTY OF TIME FOR MORE DROP TO HAPPEN.                          
THEREFORE...WENT W/10-15 BELOW ACROSS THE FAR N AND W ESP SAINT                 
JOHN VALLEY...HOULTON AND NORTHERN WASHINGTON COUNTY WHERE COLD                 
AIR DRAINAGE WILL OCCUR. 10 TO 15 BELOW IN SOME OF THESE AREAS NOT              
OUT OF THE QUESTION. DECIDED ON SINGLE NUMBERS W/SOME AREAS SEEING              
AROUND ZERO FOR THE INTERIOR DOWNEAST AND THE COAST. CLOUDS MOVING              
IN FROM THE W WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO LEVEL OFF ACROSS THE W AND NW BY              
SUNDAY MORNING.                                                                 
CONVECTIVE STRATOCUMULUS ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL SECTIONS WILL              
DISSIPATE LATER THIS AFTERNOON WITH DECREASE IN SOLAR RADIATION.                
COULDN`T RULE OUT SOME SCATTERED FLURRIES BEFORE CLOUDS DISSIPATE.              
CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS FOR MOST OF THE REGION TONIGHT WILL                 
ALLOW STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING WITH TEMPERATURES DROPPING TO                  
BELOW ZERO ACROSS THE NORTH AND CENTRAL SECTIONS WITH SINGLE                    
DIGITS FOR DOWNEAST. PREFER THE COLDER FWC GUIDANCE AS MET AND MAV              
HAVE BEEN TOO WARM FOR TEMPERATURES TODAY. AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES               
EAST OF THE REGION AFTER MIDNIGHT...MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL                    
APPROACH FROM THE WEST WHICH MAY PREVENT TEMPERATURES FROM REALLY               
BOMBING OVER EXTREME WESTERN SECTIONS. WARM AIR ADVECTION MID AND               
HIGH CLOUDS WILL QUICKLY OVERSPREAD THE REGION AFTER SUNRISE                    
SUNDAY CREATING A MOSTLY CLOUDY TO OVERCAST DAY. A WEAK                         
DISTURBANCE IN THE FLOW ALOFT MAY BE ENOUGH TO CREATE SOME LIGHT                
SNOW ACROSS THE NORTH SUNDAY AFTERNOON BUT ANY AMOUNTS WILL BE                  
VERY LIGHT.                                                                     
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT/...                                                   
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE TO THE EAST SUNDAY NIGHT WHILE LOW                      
PRESSURE LIFTS THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES. WARM AIR ADVECTION BETWEEN              
THESE SYSTEMS WILL BRING MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES TO THE REGION. ACROSS              
NORTHERN AREAS...THERE IS A CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW TRANSITIONING TO               
LIGHT FREEZING RAIN SUNDAY NIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING                      
THROUGH THE NIGHT AT BOTH THE SURFACE AND ALOFT. THE LOW WILL                   
TRACK NORTHWEST OF THE REGION MONDAY...DRAWING A COLD FRONT TOWARD              
WESTERN MAINE LATE. LIGHT FREEZING RAIN COULD LINGER ACROSS                     
NORTHERN AREAS EARLY MONDAY MORNING. OTHERWISE...TEMPERATURES WILL              
BE WARM ENOUGH FOR RAIN ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION WITH INCREASING                
RAIN CHANCES DURING THE AFTERNOON IN ADVANCE OF THE APPROACHING                 
COLD FRONT. THE COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY                  
NIGHT. RAIN SHOWERS WILL OCCUR IN ADVANCE OF THE COLD FRONT...WITH              
THE PRECIPITATION TRANSITIONING TO SNOW SHOWERS IN THE WAKE OF THE              
COLD FRONT. THE TRANSITION TO SNOW WILL INITIALLY OCCUR ACROSS                  
NORTHERN AREAS...NOT REACHING THE DOWNEAST COAST UNTIL LATE. SNOW               
SHOWERS COULD LINGER EARLY TUESDAY...WITH CLOUD COVER THEN                      
DIMINISHING WHILE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST. HIGH PRESSURE WILL                 
CROSS THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT. CLOUD COVER WILL THEN BEGIN TO                  
INCREASE LATER TUESDAY NIGHT TO THE NORTH OF LOW PRESSURE TRACKING              
SOUTH OF THE REGION...WITH A CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW LATE ACROSS                   
CENTRAL/DOWNEAST PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL               
BE AT ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS MONDAY...WITH NEAR NORMAL LEVEL                       
TEMPERATURES TUESDAY.                                                           
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...                                         
THE START OF THE LONG TERM FINDS THE GFS AND ECMWF IN GOOD                      
GENERAL AGREEMENT. A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE RIDGED ACROSS                 
THE REGION. BY MIDDAY ON WED THE HIGH WILL HAVE MOVED TO THE E.                 
THE MODELS ARE A BIT AT ODDS WITH POSITION OF THE LOW THE GFS HAS               
THE LOW OVER THE SRN GULF OF MAINE WATERS...THE ECMWF HAS THE LOW               
TRACKING E ALONG THE COAST OF MAINE. BY THUR MORNING THE LOW WILL               
BE E OF THE AREA OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES...WITH THE FRONT                   
EXTENDING BACK ACROSS THE S GULF OF MAINE WATERS. THE MODELS ARE                
AGAIN IN GENERAL AGREEMENT...BUT THE TIMING IS A BIT OFF ABOUT 6                
HRS OUT OF PHASE. THE NEXT LOW WILL TRACK INTO THE AREA FRI MORN                
ACCORDING TO THE GFS...FRI AFTERNOON ECMWF. OTHER THAN TIMING                   
ISSUES THE POSITION AND MOVEMENT ARE SIMILAR. BY 06Z SAT THE LOW                
WILL BE EAST OF THE AREA AND HIGHER PRESS WILL ONCE AGAIN BUILD                 
ACROSS THE AREA. LOADED THE GMOS AND ADJUSTED SKY AND POPS TO                   
BETTER SUPPORT ONE ANOTHER. SOME UNCERTAINTY REMAINS THROUGH THE                
MIDDLE PORTION OF THE LONG TERM AS TO THE TRACK OF THE LOW. THE                 
GFS TRACK WOULD BRING THE PRECIP BAND FARTHER N INTO CTRL                       
ME...WERE THE ECMWF`S TRACK WOULD TAKE IT FARTHER S CONFINING THE               
PRECIP TO THE COASTAL AREA.                                                     
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION /03Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...                                      
MVFR CEILINGS OVER THE NORTH WILL DISSIPATE LATER THIS AFTERNOON WITH           
CLEAR CONDITIONS FOR THE ENTIRE AREA TONIGHT. MID AND HIGH CLOUDS               
WILL QUICKLY OVERSPREAD THE REGION ON SUNDAY BUT CONDITIONS TO                  
REMAIN VFR. CEILINGS/VISIBILITIES SHOULD LOWER TO MVFR LEVELS                   
ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS LATER SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH GENERALLY VFR                   
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REST OF THE REGION. OCCASIONAL MVFR                       
CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS MONDAY...WITH                       
OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS DEVELOPING DOWNEAST. MVFR/IFR                        
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED MONDAY NIGHT WITH THE COLD FRONT CROSSING               
THE REGION. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR LEVELS TUESDAY.                      
OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS COULD THEN OCCUR ACROSS THE REGION WITH              
SNOW SHOWERS WEDNESDAY THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY.                                  
&&                                                                              
.MARINE...                                                                      
NEAR TERM: EXTENDED THE SCA UNTIL 10Z FOR OUTER MARINE ZONES PER                
COLLABORATION W/GYX. WINDS/SEAS HOLDING AOA SCA LEVELS. THE                     
GUIDANCE IS TOO FAST IN BRINGING THE CONDITIONS DOWN PER 00Z OBS.               
CONDITIONS IN THE INLETS HAVE DROPPED BELOW SCA CRITERIA SO WILL                
DROP SCA FOR ANZ052 WITH THIS ISSUANCE. USED A BLEND OF THE GFS                 
AND NAM12 FOR WINDS AND A BLEND OF THE WNAWAVE AND SWAN FOR SEAS.               
SHORT TERM: WINDS/SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO BE ABOVE SMALL CRAFT                     
ADVISORY LEVELS SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY...WITH SEAS                  
REMAINING ABOVE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS TUESDAY NIGHT. SMALL                
CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE THEN POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY THROUGH                   
THURSDAY. VISIBILITIES WILL BE REDUCED IN SHOWERS MONDAY AFTERNOON              
THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY...THEN AGAIN TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY.              
&&                                                                              
.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
ME...NONE.                                                                      
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ050-051.             
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
NEAR TERM...HEWITT                                                              
SHORT TERM...NORCROSS                                                           
LONG TERM...NORTON                                                              
AVIATION...HEWITT                                                               
MARINE...HEWITT/NORCROSS                                                        
</pre> me                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA                                           
1235 AM EST SAT DEC 13 2008                                                     
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY.                 
THE HIGH WILL THEN MOVE OFFSHORE ON SUNDAY. A SERIES OF COLD                    
FRONTS AND AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION                   
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.                                                       
&&                                                                              
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...                                         
HI PRES WILL BLD TO JUST W OF THE AREA TNGT. UNDR A CLR OR MSTLY                
CLR SKY...MIN TEMPS WILL RANGE THRU THE 20S TO LWR 30S.                         
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...                               
QUIET WX IN STORE FOR THE WKND THRU MON...AS HI PRES WILL BLD ACRS              
THE REGION ON SAT...THEN SLIDE INTO THE ATLC FOR SUN AND MON.                   
DESPITE A SNY SKY...IT WILL BE CHILLY ON SAT WITH MAX TEMPS                     
RANGING FM THE UPR 30S TO UPR 40S. MSTLY CLR AND COLD SAT NGT WITH              
MIN TEMPS RANGING FM THE UPR TEENS (SBY) TO THE LWR 30S.                        
TEMPS WILL REBOUND TO NR NORMAL ON SUN...WITH THE HI OFFSHR                     
PROVIDING SE OR S WNDS. UNDR A PRTLY TO MSTLY SNY SKY...MAX TEMPS               
WILL RANGE FM THE UPR 40S TO MID 50S. MILD CONDS THEN EXPECTED ON               
MON...DUE TO THE COMBINATION OF HI PRES OVR THE ATLC AND AN                     
APPROACHING FRNT FM THE W PROVIDING SSW WNDS INTO THE REGION.                   
PRTLY SNY WITH MAX TEMPS IN THE LWR TO MID 60S...CUD END UP WRMER.              
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...                                     
BOTH THE 12Z RUNS OF THE GFS AND ECMWF MOVE A SERIES OF LOW PRES                
SYSTEMS AND ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARIES THRU THE REGION MON NIGHT             
THRU WED NIGHT...AND WILL CARRY CHANCE POPS (25-40%) DURING THAT                
TIME. DO NOT EXPECT ANYTHING OTHER THAN LIQUID PRECIP WITH TEMPS                
REMAINING ABOVE FRZ. LOWS WILL BE IN THE MID 40S TO LWR 50S MON                 
NIGHT...THEN NEAR 40 TO NEAR 50 TUE NIGHT. HIGHS IN THE MID 50S                 
TO MID 60S ON BOTH TUE AND WED.                                                 
BEYOND WED NIGHT THE MODELS START TO DIVERGE WITH THE GFS BRINING               
ANOTHER LOW UP THRU THE REGION FROM THE SW THRU THE END OF THE                  
WEEK...WHILE THE ECMWF HAS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN BRIEFLY THU                
THRU FRI. WILL TAKE A MIDDLE OF THE ROAD APPROACH AND FOLLOW CLOSE              
TO HPC GUIDANCE...ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN (20%) FOR THE END OF             
NEXT WEEK. HIGHS THU WILL BE NEAR 50 TO NEAR 60...WITH LOWS IN THE              
UPR 20S TO UPR 30S THU NIGHT.                                                   
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...                                   
SCT TO BKN SC DECK ARND 5K FT AND SOME GUSTY N-NW WNDS WILL CONT                
NXT SVRL HRS AS AN UPR LVL TROF CROSSES AREA NXT. XPCT THE STRNGR               
GUSTS (20-25KTS) ACROSS SERN TAF SITES. OTW...HIGH PRS BLDS INTO                
RGN THRU MONDAY RESULTING IN ONLY SCT CLDS AND LGHTR WNDS.                      
A SERIES OF FRONTS & LOW PRESSURE SYSTMS WILL BRING SCT SHWRS &                 
PSBL MVFR OR IFR CONDITIONS TUE & WED.                                          
&&                                                                              
.MARINE...                                                                      
N-NW SURGE CRNTLY ONGOING ERLY THIS AM WITH GUSTS BTWN 25-30 KTS                
ATTM. RUC KEEPS THESE WNDS GOING FOR SVRL MORE HRS B4 DMNSHG LATER              
THIS AM. SEAS STILL RANGING BTWN 5-6 FT. THUS...HAVE CONTD SCA ALL              
AREAS WITH 1 AM UPDATE. XPCT WNDS TO SLOWLY SUBSIDE BLO SCA LVLS                
AFTR SR. MUCH MORE TRANQUIL BOATING CONDITIONS RETURN THIS WEEKEND              
AS HIGH PRES MOVES OVERHEAD ON SAT...THEN OFFSHORE ON SUN.                      
THE NEXT CHANCE FOR HEADLINES (MARGINAL SCA`S AT THIS POINT) WOULD              
OCCUR MON AFTERNOON/NIGHT WITH THE INCREASING S/SW FLOW AHEAD OF THE            
NEXT COLD FRONT. ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS THEN EXPECTED TO MOVE THRU               
THE WATERS TUE THRU WED.                                                        
&&                                                                              
.HYDROLOGY...                                                                   
ON AVERAGE...A GENERAL SWATH OF 1 TO 4 INCHES OF RAIN OCCURRED OVER             
THE REGION FROM THIS PAST SYSTEM (LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS OVER 4                 
INCHES WERE RECORDED OVER THE MD/VA ERN SHORE). RUNOFF WILL                     
PRODUCE RIVER RISES WELL INTO THE THREE-QUARTER BANKFULL RANGE                  
OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS.                                                   
AS OF 3PM THE MEHERRIN RIVER LEVEL AT LAWRENCEVILLE WAS 15.23 FT                
AND RISING. IT IS FORECAST TO CREST TONIGHT AROUND 1AM JUST SHY OF              
16 FT...ONE FOOT ABOVE FLOOD STAGE. A FLOOD WARNING IS OUT FOR                  
BRUNSWICK COUNTY. PLEASE REFER TO THE FLWAKQ AND                                
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/AKQ (CLICK ON RIVERS & LAKES AHPS) FOR FURTHER                  
INFORMATION AND UPDATES.                                                        
$$                                                                              
&&                                                                              
.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
MD...NONE.                                                                      
NC...NONE.                                                                      
VA...NONE.                                                                      
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR             
     ANZ630>633-656-658.                                                        
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR ANZ650-              
     652-654.                                                                   
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SYNOPSIS...TMG                                                                  
NEAR TERM...TMG                                                                 
SHORT TERM...TMG                                                                
LONG TERM...JRL                                                                 
AVIATION...MPR                                                                  
MARINE...JRL/MPR                                                                
HYDROLOGY...                                                                    
</pre> md                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
1205 AM EST SAT DEC 13 2008                                                     
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW POLAR VORTEX IN THE VCNTY             
OF NW HUDSON BAY. ONE TROF EXTENDS S THRU INTO THE ERN CONUS WHILE              
ANOTHER TROF EXTENDS SW TO BRITISH COLUMIBA/PACIFIC NW. SHORTWAVE               
CURRENTLY SLAMMING ONSHORE OVER THE PACIFIC NW WILL BE THE NEXT                 
IMPORTANT FEATURE OF INTEREST FOR THE FCST AREA AS IT DROPS SE AND              
THEN LIFTS NE INTO THE UPPER LAKES REGION LATE IN THE WEEKEND. AT               
THE CURRENT TIME...NW FLOW CONTINUES INTO THE GREAT LAKES ON THE                
BACKSIDE OF THE ERN CONUS TROF. SHORTWAVE OVER SASKATCHEWAN/SRN                 
MANITOBA WILL PASS OVER THE UPPER LAKES TONIGHT BEFORE FLOW BACKS SW            
AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE DROPPING SE INTO THE ROCKIES.                            
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT/SAT)...                                                    
AS SHORTWAVE STREAKS INTO THE UPPER LAKES TONIGHT...FAIRLY STRONG               
PUSH OF ISENTROPIC ASCENT PER 285K SFC (AROUND 700MB) SPREADS ACROSS            
THE AREA. 18Z NAM NET ISENTROPIC ADIABATIC OMEGA MATCHES UP WELL                
WITH WHERE HIGHER RADAR REFLECTIVITIES ARE NOW SHOWING UP IN NRN MN.            
MIXING RATIOS OF 1-2G/KG ARE AVBL...SUGGESTING 6HR SNOW                         
ACCUMULATIONS OF ROUGHLY 1-2 INCHES. HOWEVER...QUICK MOVEMENT WILL              
LIMIT AMOUNTS. EXPECT ACCUMULATIONS UNDER 1 INCH ACROSS THE SW                  
PORTION OF THE FCST AREA AND AROUND 1 INCH ACROSS THE N. LOW-LEVEL              
WINDS MAY HAVE ENOUGH OF A SRLY COMPONENT TO ADD A LITTLE LAKE                  
ENHANCMENT OVER PORTIONS OF SCHOOLCRAFT/LUCE...BUT WINDS A BIT                  
HIGHER UP AROUND 850MB HAVE TOO MUCH OF A WRLY COMPONENT. SO ANY                
LAKE ENHANCMENT WILL BE MINIMAL. HAVE KEPT ACCUMULATIONS TO NO MORE             
THAN 2 INCHES IN THAT AREA. MIN TEMPS WILL OCCUR THIS EVENING AND               
WILL BE AT OR JUST A FEW DEGREES LWR THAN CURRENT TEMPS. EXPECT A               
STEADY RISING TREND DURING THE NIGHT UNDER THICKENING CLOUDS/WAA AND            
MOISTURE ADVECTION.                                                             
WAA/ISENTROPIC ASCENT CONTINUES THRU THE DAY SAT...BUT ASCENT IS                
LESS FOCUSED THAN WHAT OCCURS TONIGHT. IT SHOULD RESULT IN PERIODIC             
-SN...BUT PTYPE MAY BECOME AN ISSUE. FCST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT                
ENOUGH DRYING MAY OCCUR ABOVE THE LOW-LEVELS THAT MOISTURE MAY NO               
LONGER EXTEND TO THE -10C ISOTHERM. HAVE THUS INCLUDED A SLIGHT CHC             
MENTION OF -FZDZ EXCEPT IN THE AREAS NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR THAT                    
DOWNSLOPE WITH SRLY WINDS.                                                      
.LONG TERM (SAT NIGHT THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY)...                                   
PERIOD BEGINS WITH DEEPENING TROUGH OVER THE WRN CONUS AND SW FLOW              
OVER THE CNTRL CONUS. AT THE SFC...BROAD INVERTED TROUGH STRETCHES              
NE...ACROSS MN...WRN WI...AND WRN LK SUP...FROM 988MB LOW IN THE LEE            
OF THE ROCKIES. BROAD AREA OF WAA AND ISENTROPIC LIFT ON 280-285K               
SFC AS SWRLY WINDS INCREASE THROUGH THE NIGHT. EXPECT PCPN ACROSS               
THE ENTIRE AREA ON SAT NIGHT...WITH BEST CHANCES OVER LK SUP AND ERN            
HALF OF THE CWA. LK SUP IS UNDER TIGHTENING H850-700 THERMAL                    
GRADIENT ALONG INVERTED TROUGH AND BEST H500-300 Q-VECT CONV...WHILE            
ERN HALF HAS BEST 280-290K LIFT AND COND PRES DEF. IN                           
ADDITION...EXPECT FAR ERN PART OF CWA TO HAVE SOME LK ENHANCEMENT               
OFF LK MI WITH MARGINAL DELTA T VALUES...AROUND 8-10C. EXPECT THIS              
ENHANCEMENT TO MAINLY BE DURING THE THE EVENING HOURS...AS H850                 
TEMPS GRADUALLY RISE TOWARDS -3C BY 12Z. EXPECT PCPN TO REMAIN SNOW             
ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA THROUGH THE NIGHT...AS BUFKIT SOUNDINGS KEEP            
TEMP PROFILE BELOW ZERO. THERE IS A HINT OF SOME MID LEVEL DRY AIR              
OVER THE CWA BETWEEN PCPN WAVES...WHICH MAY LIMIT ICE IN THE CLOUDS             
AND PRODUCE SOME FZDZ...BUT LEFT OUT FOR NOW. OTHERWISE....IT LOOKS             
LIKE RAIN MAY START TO MIX IN WITH THE SNOW ALONG THE LK MI                     
SHORELINE AFTER 06Z...AS WBZ VALUES APPROACH 1.2-1.5KFT. THUS...HAVE            
CONTINUED THE MENTION OF RAIN IN THOSE AREAS.                                   
FOR SUN...THERE HAS BEEN A SLIGHT WNW SHIFT OF THE LOW TRACK ACROSS             
UPPER MI. 12Z NAM STRONGEST AND FARTHEST NW...AROUND 992MB AND                  
TRACKING IT ACROSS THE KEWEENAW...WHILE 12Z GFS AND 00Z ECMWF SEND              
THE MID 990S LOW BETWEEN LANSE AND MQT. LATEST 12Z ECMWF CAME IN                
THIS AFTN AND SHIFTED THE LOW AND COLDER AIR SLIGHTLY TO THE                    
EAST...WITH THE LOW LOCATED AROUND IRON RIVER AT 00Z MON...COMPARED             
TO MARENISCO/WATERSMEET AREA ON 00Z RUN. LOW TRACK AND WARM AIR                 
WRAPPING AROUND WILL HAVE THE LARGEST EFFECT ON PCPN TYPE OVER FAR              
WRN UP. LOOKING LIKE MORE OF A MIX OF RAIN/SNOW OVER THE FAR WEST               
NOW...BASED ON 12Z LOCAL REGWRF AND 12Z NAM BUFKIT SOUNDINGS...AS               
ISOTHERMAL LAYER AROUND 0C STRETCHES FROM THE SFC TO H800 AT KIWD.              
12Z GFS HAS TRENDED A LITTLE WARMER...WITH TEMPS WARMING TO 2-3C                
BETWEEN SFC AND H800. HAVE DECIDED TO KEEP RAIN/SNOW MIX OVER SW                
PART OF CWA AND HAVE ADJUSTED DOWN SNOW AMOUNTS IN THAT AREA.                   
KEWEENAW WILL BE ON THE EDGE OF RAIN/SNOW...AS WARM AIR ATTEMPTS TO             
WRAP UP ON SUN. LATEST LOCAL REGWRF / GFS BUFKIT SOUNDINGS AT CMX               
HINT AT A LONGER RAIN POSSIBLY MIXED WITH SNOW SITUATION LATE SUN               
AFTN/EVENING. ALSO CONTINUED MENTION OF FZRA OVER THE W CNTRL PART              
OF THE CWA SUN MORN. SFC TEMPS WILL BE RIGHT AROUND FREEZING...BUT              
DO NOT HAVE ENOUGH CONFIDENCE ON SFC TEMPS FOR AMOUNT OF FZRA. WITH             
TEMPS NEARLY STEADY ON SAT NIGHT AND THEN STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS                
BRINGING MORE WARM AIR N...DO NOT SEE ENOUGH COLD AIR AT THE SFC TO             
HAVE WIDESPREAD FZRA...EVEN THOUGH SNOW COVER AND RECENT COLD TEMPS             
HAVE GROUND TEMPS JUST BELOW FREEZING. WILL NEED TO CONTINUE TO FINE            
TUNE PCPN TYPE WITH FUTURE SHIFTS. STILL EXPECTING A FAIRLY STRONG              
AREA OF PCPN TO MOVE FROM S TO N ACROSS THE CWA ON SUN MORN INTO                
EARLY AFTN...AS LEFT EXIT REGION OF 130KT JET PUSHES INTO NRN WI AND            
PWAT VALUES PEAK AROUND 0.6-0.8IN. STRONG MID LVL LAPSE RATES                   
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS...AROUND 7C/KM BETWEEN H700-500 MAY BE ENOUGH              
TO GENERATE A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER. SHOWALTERS ARE STILL                      
MARGINAL...2C...SO CONTINUED TO LEAVE OUT THUNDER. NO HEADLINES AT              
THIS TIME...BUT THINKING THAT ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED AT SOME POINT            
ALONG THE WRN TIER OF COUNTIES...DUE TO A FEW INCHES OF SNOW AND THE            
MIX OF PCPN AT TIME...MAKING ROADS A LITTLE SLICK.                              
MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO THE POPS ON SUN NIGHT...AS DRIER AIR MOVES             
IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AND THE LES STARTS TO KICK IN. BIGGEST ITEM            
OF NOTE IS THE RAPID DROP IN TEMPS EXPECTED FROM W TO E ACROSS THE              
CWA. AFTER THE NEARLY STEADY TEMPS ON SUN...EXPECT TEMPS OVER THE W             
TO DROP FROM AROUND FREEZING TO THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO BY                 
DAYBREAK MON. THE CNTRL CWA WILL ALSO SEE A DROP...BUT NOT AS                   
SUBSTANTIAL AS THE W...WHILE THE E IS NOT EXPECTED TO DROP MUCH                 
UNTIL MON. THIS SHOULD RAPIDLY FREEZE ANY WATER/MOISTURE ON THE                 
ROADWAYS AND MAKE FOR A VERY DIFFICULT TRAVEL PERIOD SUN NIGHT INTO             
MON. EXPECT A GRADUAL DROP IN TEMPS THROUGH THE DAY ON MON...WITH               
THE DAYS HIGHS OCCURRING AROUND DAYBREAK. LES WILL DEVELOP OVER THE             
W ON SUN NIGHT AND CONTINUE INTO TUES...AS H850 TEMPS DROP INTO THE             
LOW -20S. WITH A WNW WIND...EXPECT THE TRADITIONAL LES AREAS OVER               
THE WEST AND NEAR LK SUP E OF MQT TO SEE THE MOST SNOW. STRONG WINDS            
ON MON SHOULD CAUSE SOME BLOWING AND DRIFTING OF THE SNOW OVER THE              
W...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE LK SUP SHORELINE. KEWEENAW SHOULD SEE THE              
STRONGEST WINDS ON MON...WITH GUSTS TOWARDS 40MPH...AS THE LOW EXITS            
AND PRESS RISE/FALL COUPLET MOVES THROUGH. DO NOT EXPECT MUCH LES               
ACCUMULATION OVER THE W...WITH MOST OF THE SNOW BEING PLATE/COLUMN              
TYPE...AS DGZ DROPS TO THE SFC WITH THE CAA AND STRONG WINDS BREAK              
UP ANY OF THE LARGER FLAKES. ;ES WILL START TO SHIFT OVER LK SUP ON             
MON NIGHT AND TUES...AS WINDS BACK TO THE SW AHEAD OF A HIGH SLIDING            
OUT OF THE PLAINS.                                                              
MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST PAST DAY 4...AS MODELS HAVE SOME            
DIFFERENCES IN THEIR UPR LVL AND SFC SOLNS. BOTH 00Z GFS/ECMWF                  
SHOWING SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW AND ACROSS THE CWA                    
SOMETIME ON TUES NIGHT OR WED...WHICH DEVELOPS A LOW OVER THE SRN               
GREAT LKS OR OHIO VALLEY. HAVE CONTINUED LOW CHANCE POPS DURING THAT            
TIME PERIOD FOR THE PASSAGE OF THE WAVE. BEHIND THE WAVE...HIGH                 
PRESS EXPECTED OVER THE PLAINS...WHICH WILL GIVE US NW FLOW OFF LK              
SUP. WITH H850 TEMPS IN THE LOW -20C RANGE...HAVE CHANCE POPS IN                
TRADITIONAL NW WIND LES LOCATIONS FOR WED NIGHT THROUGH THURS NIGHT.            
WINDS BEGIN TO BACK A LITTLE MORE WRLY ON FRI...SO HAVE TRANSITIONED            
POPS TO BE MAINLY OVER W AND KEWEENAW. OVERALL...TEMPS WILL BE BELOW            
NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEK...WITH HIGHS IN THE TEENS AND SOME                      
MODERATION TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK.                                         
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION (FOR THE 06Z TAF ISSUANCE)...                                         
AT KCMX...IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH -SN AS MOISTURE AND                  
WARMER AIR STREAM NE INTO THE UPPER LAKES IN CONJUNCTION WITH A                 
DISTURBANCE THROUGH THE REST OF THE NIGHT. AFTER PASSAGE OF                     
DISTURBANCE...MVFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL AT KCMX SAT MORNING                
UNDER CONTINUED ADVECTION OF WARMER/MOIST AIR. IN THE                           
AFTERNOON...LOWER CIGS AND VIS WILL BE COMING IN WITH A LOWER                   
STRATUS DECK AND POSSIBLY SOME FOG WITH THIS AS WELL AS WAA OUT                 
AHEAD OF NEXT WAVE WITH LIGHT SNOW MOVES IN. DOWNSLOPE COMES INTO               
PLAY WITH A SOUTHEAST WIND IN THE EVENING...SO CONDITIONS COULD GO              
BACK TO MVFR AT KCMX WITH A SE WIND CAUSED BY DOWNSLOPE OFF THE                 
HURON MOUNTAINS.                                                                
AT KSAW...CONDITIONS WILL FALL TO IFR AS -SN DEVELOPS WITH PASSING              
DISTURBANCE. UNDER CONTINUED ADVECTION OF WARMER/MOIST AIR...MVFR               
CONDITIONS EXPECTED SAT MORNING AFTER -SN ENDS. ALSO...INCREASING               
LOW-LEVEL JET SHOULD RESULT IN LLWS OVERNIGHT THRU MID MORNING SAT.             
IN THE AFTERNOON...LOWER CIGS AND VIS WILL BE COMING IN WITH A LOWER            
STRATUS DECK AND POSSIBLY SOME FOG WITH THIS AS WELL AS WAA OUT                 
AHEAD OF NEXT WAVE WITH LIGHT SNOW MOVES IN.                                    
&&                                                                              
.MARINE (FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)...                       
SRLY WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 20-30KT ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR TONIGHT AS             
HIGH PRES RIDGE MOVES E OF THE AREA. STRONGEST WINDS WILL OCCUR OVER            
ERN LAKE SUPERIOR WHERE A FEW GUSTS MAY APPROACH GALE FORCE LATE                
TONIGHT/EARLY SAT. WINDS WILL THEN DIMINISH SOME SAT AS PRES                    
GRADIENT SLACKENS...ESPECIALLY OVER WRN LAKE SUPERIOR. LOW PRES WILL            
THEN TRACK NE...CROSSING LAKE SUPERIOR SUN NIGHT. AHEAD OF THE                  
LOW...SRLY WINDS WILL RAMP UP TO 20-30KT SAT NIGHT OVER ERN LAKE                
SUPERIOR. INCREASE IN WINDS WILL HOLD OFF OVER WRN LAKE SUPERIOR                
UNTIL SUN WHEN NE WINDS WILL INCREASE TO GALE FORCE ON THE BACKSIDE             
OF A SW-NE ORIENTED TROF BISECTING THE LAKE. LOW WILL TRACK ALONG               
THE TROF SUN NIGHT. IN THE WAKE OF THE LOW...EXPECT GALE FORCE W TO             
NW WINDS ACROSS MOST OF LAKE SUPERIOR LATE SUN NIGHT/MON UNDER                  
INTENSE CAA REGIME.                                                             
&&                                                                              
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
UPPER MICHIGAN...NONE.                                                          
LAKE SUPERIOR...NONE.                                                           
LAKE MICHIGAN...                                                                
    GALE WARNING 5 AM SAT TO 1 PM EST MON LMZ248-250.                           
    GALE WATCH SUN AFTN THRU MON AFTN LMZ221.                                   
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM...ROLFSON                                                   
LONG TERM...SRF                                                                 
AVIATION...GM                                                                   
MARINE...ROLFSON                                                                
</pre> mi                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN                              
814 AM CST FRI DEC 12 2008                                                      
.UPDATE...TO AVIATION FORECAST DISCUSSION BELOW                                 
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION.../341 AM CST FRI DEC 12 2008/                                 
..A HIGH IMPACT STORM SYSTEM WILL LIKELY AFFECT THE REGION THIS                 
WEEKEND...                                                                      
BUSY FORECAST PERIOD AHEAD WITH WARM ADVECTION AND LOW SNOW CHANCES             
COMING UP TODAY WITH A SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORM IN THE WORKS FOR THE            
REGION BEGINNING SATURDAY AND WINDING DOWN MONDAY. THE FORECAST AREA            
IS EXPECTED TO AVOID THE MOST SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION AMOUNT WISE             
WITH THAT REMAINING ACROSS NORTHERN MINNESOTA...WISCONSIN AND INTO              
THE U.P. OF MICHIGAN. HOWEVER...A MIX OF PRECIPITATION WILL ARRIVE              
AHEAD OF THE LOW LATER SATURDAY AND TURN TO SNOW BY LATE SUNDAY AS A            
BLAST OF ARCTIC AIR ARRIVES WITH 25 TO 35+ MPH NORTHWESTERLY WINDS              
POSSIBLE ACROSS WESTERN AREAS. WEST CENT MN AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF            
CENTRAL MN WILL SEE THE MOST SNOW ACCUMULATION IN THE CWA /WITH MUCH            
MORE SNOW TO THE NORTH OF THE CWA/ BY MONDAY MORNING. SOME OF THE               
COLDEST TEMPERATURES OF THE SEASON THUS FAR WILL BE FOUND INTO                  
TUESDAY. MORE DETAILS FOLLOW BELOW.                                             
EARLY MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS VERY AMPLIFIED PATTERN OVER             
EASTERN NORTH AMERICA WHERE LONGWAVE TROUGH REMAINS IN PLACE IN TWO             
STREAMS. THE NORTHERN STREAM STEMS FROM A MULTI-SPOKED UPPER LOW                
OVER HUDSON BAY AND IS PROVIDING CONTINUED NORTHWEST FLOW OVERHEAD              
OF THE LOCAL AREA. THE SOUTHERN STREAM WHICH EXTENDS FROM THE OHIO              
RIVER VALLEY SOUTHWARD HAS A WELL ORGANIZED CLOSED LOW WORKING                  
NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE APPALACHIANS WITH A DEEP COASTAL LOW                     
DEVELOPING IN ASSOCIATION WITH IT. LOOKING IN A BIT MORE DETAIL...A             
SERIES OF WEAK SHORTWAVES APPEAR IN THE LOCAL AREA WITH ONE SUCH                
WAVE EXITING TO THE SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING AND                 
ANOTHER MORE SHEARED WAVE DROPPING SOUTHEAST ACROSS ALBERTA TOWARDS             
THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER. THE WESTERN U.S. IS SEEING A TROUGH DROP              
SOUTHWARD ALONG THE CALIFORNIA COAST BUT THE TROUGH THAT IS OF                  
GREATER INTEREST IS JUST OFF THE CENTRAL BRITISH COLUMBIA COAST.                
THIS TROUGH WILL PLAY A KEY ROLE IN DEVELOPING THE UPCOMING WINTER              
STORM.                                                                          
TODAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT TO THE EAST TODAY ALLOWING WINDS TO            
SHIFT TO THE SOUTH. CLIPPER TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE AREA WILL DROP              
SOUTHEASTWARD HELPING TO TIGHTEN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT AS WELL AS               
ESTABLISH WARM ADVECTION OVER THE AREA. SHOULD SEE A NICE RECOVERY              
OF TEMPS FROM THEIR CURRENT SUB-ZERO VALUES INTO THE UPPER 20S IN               
THE WEST AND MID/UPPER TEENS EAST. THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR            
SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTH THIRD OR SO OF THE AREA LATER THIS                
AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER WAVE PASSES AND BEST MID LEVEL TEMPERATURE               
GRADIENT LINES UP WITH SUFFICIENTLY DEEP MOISTURE. SOUTH WINDS WILL             
KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM FALLING MUCH IF AT ALL TONIGHT...WITH A RISE             
EVEN POSSIBLE TOWARDS DAYBREAK SATURDAY. LIGHT SNOW CHANCES WILL                
LINGER IN THE NORTHEAST CWA.                                                    
SATURDAY-MONDAY...MODELS ARE STILL IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH                
REGARD TO THE BRITISH COLUMBIA LOW REACHING THE PAC NORTHWEST LATER             
TONIGHT. ITS ASSOCIATED SFC LOW COMES ASHORE OVER WASHINGTON STATE              
THIS AFTERNOON AS THE SFC LOW ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK CLIPPER                    
PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED TO BE DROPPING ACROSS ALBERTA THIS MORNING                 
REACHES THE U.S./CANADIAN BORDER. THE SFC PATTERN BECOMES RATHER                
COMPLEX ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER BETWEEN THESE TWO SYSTEMS AS             
LOW-MID LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE TIGHTENS AS SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AHEAD              
OF THE WEST COAST UPPER TROUGH SENDS WARM AIR NORTH AND THE CLIPPER             
SENDS COLD AIR SOUTH WITH 80-90KT UPPER JET DEVELOPING ABOVE. THE               
ADVANCING TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED HEIGHT FALLS SPAWN STRONG SFC                   
CYCLOGENESIS OVER MONTANA AND WYOMING TONIGHT WITH DEVELOPING WARM              
FRONTAL BOUNDARY/INVERTED TROUGH SETTING UP FROM SOUTHWEST TO                   
NORTHEAST FROM WESTERN SODAK INTO NORTHWESTERN MN SATURDAY AFTERNOON            
AS THE SFC LOW SETTLES INTO NE COLORADO. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT                  
ACROSS THE CENTRAL U.S. TIGHTENS PROVIDING STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS               
INTO THE LOCAL AREA. LOW/MID LEVEL WARM ADVECTION WILL BE STRONGEST             
OVER NORTHERN AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA THIS EVENING WITH H85             
TEMPS HOVERING AROUND 0C DURING THE DAY SATURDAY. MID LEVEL DRY AIR             
IS ABUNDANT THOUGH WEAK ASCENT REMAINS SO PRECIPITATION CHANCES                 
SATURDAY DON/T LOOK ALL THAT HIGH UNTIL AFTERNOON WHEN A MID LEVEL              
TROUGH SPEEDS NORTHEASTWARD BRINGING ENHANCED WARM ADVECTION AND                
SLIGHTLY DEEPER MOISTURE. THE STRONGER PORTION OF THE WAVE WILL BE              
ACROSS IOWA AND INTO CENTRAL WISCONSIN.                                         
BETTER FORCING WILL WORK IN SATURDAY EVENING/NIGHT ACROSS WESTERN               
AND NORTHERN PARTS OF THE AREA. PRECIP TYPE WILL BE THE MAIN                    
CHALLENGE ALONG WITH SFC TEMPS. NAM AND GFS FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE              
DIFFERENT IN THE DETAILS...AND IT IS STILL A BIT FAR OUT TO COUNT ON            
SPECIFICS FROM THEM BUT THEY SHOULD PROVIDE A GENERAL IDEA OF HOW               
P-TYPE WILL PAN OUT. TOP DOWN ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT SNOW AND                  
SLEET WOULD BE THE DOMINANT P-TYPES ACROSS THE NORTH SATURDAY                   
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING WITH SOUNDINGS ONLY WARM ENOUGH TO                  
SUPPORT PARTIAL MELTING. SFC TEMPS SHOULD HOVER AROUND FREEZING                 
DURING THE AFTERNOON BUT SOUNDINGS SHOW AIR COLD ENOUGH ABOVE THE               
SFC TO ALLOW RE-FREEZING. PROFILES WARM SATURDAY NIGHT AS PRECIP                
CHANCES EXPAND WITH RAIN BECOMING MORE LIKELY TO MIX IN ACROSS EAST             
CENTRAL MN AND WEST CENT WI. FZRA WILL BECOME A CONCERN ACROSS                  
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF EAST CENT MN TOWARDS LATE EVENING/EARLY                    
OVERNIGHT WITH SFC TEMPS CONTINUING TO HOVER AROUND FREEZING. SFC               
TEMPS MAY EVEN RISE OVERNIGHT. SOUNDINGS IN THESE AREAS LOOK MORE               
CONDUCIVE FOR RAIN OR SNOW. ACROSS SOUTHERN AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF             
THE CWA WESTERN AREAS WILL SEE COLD AIR DROP BY DAYBREAK SUNDAY                 
ALLOWING A QUICK TRANSITION TO ALL SNOW.                                        
THE SFC LOW WILL MOVE INTO SOUTHERN MINNESOTA SUNDAY MORNING WITH               
THE INVERTED TROUGH POSITIONED OVER EASTERN MINNESOTA AND SHIFTING              
EAST AS THE LOW MOVES NORTHEAST. COLD AIR WILL RAPIDLY MOVE IN FROM             
THE NORTH AND WEST CHANGING PRECIP OVER TO ALL SNOW FROM WEST TO                
EAST THROUGH THE DAY. VERY WARM AIR RIDES UP AHEAD OF THE LOW INTO              
FAR EAST CENT MN AND WEST CENT WI SO A PERIOD OF STRAIGHT RAIN IS               
POSSIBLE THERE. MODELS STILL SHOW DEEP LAYER MOISTURE DECREASING                
ACROSS THE EAST HALF OF THE AREA WHICH SEEMS REASONABLE. THIS WILL              
LIMIT PRECIP AMOUNTS IN THE WARM AIR AND TO AN EXTENT ACROSS THE                
WESTERN CWA IN THE COLD AIR VS. AREAS TO THE NORTH. HANDLING OF THE             
UPPER TROUGH VARIES BY MODEL WITH THE POSITION OF THE SFC LOW NOW               
VARYING BY SUNDAY EVENING. ALL OF THIS CREATES COMPLICATIONS WITH               
POSITION OF ANY DRY SLOT AND LOCATION OF BETTER BANDING OF SNOW.                
STILL EXPECT THAT PRIMARY BANDING WILL BE TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA              
BUT HAVE CONCERNS ABOUT HEAVY SNOW POTENTIAL ACROSS NORTHWEST                   
PORTIONS OF THE CWA FROM CANBY TOWARDS ST. CLOUD. WINDS WILL                    
INCREASE MARKEDLY FROM THE NORTHWEST AS THE LOW LIFTS NORTHEAST. 25             
TO 35 MPH WINDS ARE LIKELY WITH GUSTS OVER 35 MPH EXPECTED. THE                 
STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE ACROSS WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA.                          
WATCH REASONING...DECIDED TO ISSUE A BLIZZARD WATCH FOR THE WESTERN             
TIER OF COUNTIES OR FROM STEVENS TO YELLOW MEDICINE FROM 12Z SUNDAY             
TO 12Z MONDAY. MAIN CONCERN HERE IS THE WIND. SNOW AMOUNTS LOOK TO              
RANGE FROM 2 TO PERHAPS 6 INCHES ACROSS THESE COUNTIES WITH THE MOST            
NORTH BUT WITH OPEN COUNTRY AND 35 MPH WINDS WITH FALLING SNOW VIS              
DOWN TO A QUARTER MILE WITH SIGNIFICANT DRIFTING LOOKS LIKELY. ALSO             
DECIDED TO ISSUE A WINTER STORM WATCH FOR AREAS EAST OF THE BLIZZARD            
WATCH OR NORTH OF A LINE FROM REDWOOD FALLS TO LITCHFIELD TO BUFFALO            
TO MILACA TO MORA FROM 12Z SUNDAY TO 12Z MONDAY. WINDS ARE AGAIN THE            
MAIN CONCERN BUT SHOULD BE OF LOWER SPEEDS THAN IN THE BLIZZARD                 
WATCH AREA. SNOW AMOUNTS AGAIN LOOK TO BE FROM 2 TO 5 OR MAYBE 6                
INCHES WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS IN THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE WATCH            
AREA BUT CONSIDERABLE BLOWING IS EXPECTED. THERE IS UNCERTAINTY OF              
THE DRY SLOT AND SOME POSSIBLE FLUCTUATIONS IN THE TRACK DUE TO                 
VARIATIONS IN THE HANDLING OF THE UPPER LOW WHICH HAS YET TO COME               
ONSHORE WHICH MAY RESULT IN THIS WATCH BEING A BIT TOO FAR SOUTH.               
OTHER COMPLICATING FACTOR IS MIXED PRECIP SATURDAY NIGHT. AT THIS               
POINT FEEL THAT AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT...BUT COULD REACH ADVISORY                
LEVELS. NOT ENOUGH CERTAINTY RELATIVE TO THE SNOW/WIND SUNDAY TO                
CARRY THE WATCH SATURDAY NIGHT AS WELL. TRAVEL SUNDAY LOOKS TO                  
BECOME VERY TREACHEROUS IF NOT IMPOSSIBLE ACROSS THE WATCH AREAS                
WITH THE BLOWING AND DRIFTING.                                                  
SNOW WILL WRAP UP SUNDAY NIGHT BUT WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE STRONG             
THROUGH MONDAY BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE ARRIVES MONDAY NIGHT. VERY COLD             
AIR WILL BE IN PLACE STARTING SUNDAY NIGHT AS H85 TEMPS FALL TO                 
COLDER THAN -20C. ANOTHER TROUGH WILL WORK INTO THE WESTERN U.S.                
BRINGING A RETURN OF WARM ADVECTION TUESDAY WITH ANOTHER CHANCE FOR             
PRECIPITATION WITH A BRIEF PERIOD OF MODERATING TEMPERATURES.                   
THANKS TO WFOS FSD/ABR/FGF/DLH FOR THE COORDINATION THIS MORNING                
REGARDING THE WINTER STORM. ..MDB...                                            
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION... /UPDATES TO 12 TAF ISSUANCE/                                       
BAND OF MVFR CEILINGS OVER WEST CENTRAL MN AT 14Z IS EXPECTED TO                
EXPAND EASTWARD THIS MORNING AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH/EAST                   
ACROSS MN. HAVE UPDATED THE 12Z TAFS TO REFLECT THE CURRENT                     
OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS...AND THE 12Z NAM/RUC 925-850 RH PROGS. HAVE               
THEREFORE INCLUDED AN MVFR DECK BETWEEN 1500 AND 2500 FEET RIGHT                
OUT OF THE GATE FOR KAXN AND KRWF...AND INTRODUCED IT MID/LATE                  
MORNING AT KSTC AND KMSP. EXPECT MVFR CIGS TO REACH KRNH/KEAU BY                
EARLY AFTERNOON. A PERIOD OF VFR CONDITIONS IS THEN EXPECTED LATE               
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS CLOUDS SCATTER OUT BEHIND THE FRONT.              
MVFR CIGS WILL THEN RE-ENTER THE TAF ON SATURDAY AS THE WINTER                  
STORM SETS IN.                                                                  
&&                                                                              
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
MN...BLIZZARD WATCH FROM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT FOR           
     CHIPPEWA-LAC QUI PARLE-STEVENS-SWIFT-YELLOW MEDICINE.                      
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT           
     FOR BENTON-DOUGLAS-KANABEC-KANDIYOHI-MEEKER-MILLE LACS-                    
     MORRISON-POPE-RENVILLE-SHERBURNE-STEARNS-TODD-WRIGHT.                      
WI...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
LS/MDB                                                                          
</pre> mn                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS                                             
356 PM CST SAT DEC 13 2008                                                      
.DISCUSSION...OUR STRING OF UNSEASONABLY COOL WEATHER WILL BE COMING            
TO AN END THIS WEEK AS SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BRING AN INCREASE IN                
MOISTURE ACROSS THE ARKLAMISS. CURRENT RUC ANALYSIS INDICATES HIGH              
PRESSURE CONTINUING TO SLIDE OFF TO THE EAST AND BECOMING CENTERED              
OVER NJ/DE/MD. AS THIS MOVES OFF...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER IDAHO AND            
SFC LOW OVER COLORADO CONTINUE TO DROP SOUTHEAST. THIS IS CREATING A            
TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT AND VERY GUSTY WINDS OVER THE PLAINS               
INTO TEXAS. DENSE CIRRUS HAS COVERED MOST OF THE CWA AND THIS HAS               
ALLOWED TEMPERATURES TO ONLY WARM INTO THE MID TO UPPER 40S. AREAS              
THAT HAVE SEEN BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS HAVE REACHED INTO THE 50S.                  
FOR TONIGHT...EXPECT LOW PRESSURE OUT WEST TO CONTINUE TO TRACK                 
EAST/SOUTHEAST. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE WINDS AHEAD OF THE               
ASSOCIATED FRONT AND CAUSE GUSTY WINDS OVER MAINLY THE NW PORTIONS              
OF THE CWA. WITH THIS SAID...HAVE GONE AND EXPANDED THE LAKE WIND               
ADVISORY TO COVER GENERALLY THE AREAS BOUNDED BY INTERSTATE 55 AND              
INTERSTATE 20. THIS AREA IS LIKELY TO SEE THE GREATEST WINDS                    
OVERNIGHT. IN ADDITION...GIVEN SOUTHERLY FLOW...EXPECT SOME WARM                
ADVECTION RAIN TO OCCUR OVERNIGHT TONIGHT...MAINLY WEST OF THE MS               
RIVER AFTER MIDNIGHT.                                                           
SUNDAY...AS SOUTHERN STREAM 120KT 200MB JET MOVES OVER THE CWA...AND            
FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST...CONTINUED GUSTY WINDS WILL PREVAIL.            
THE HIGHEST SPEEDS WILL AGAIN BE IN THE MS DELTA AND AR COUNTIES.               
WITH THIS SAID HAVE ISSUED A WIND ADVISORY AS SPEEDS WILL LIKELY AT             
LEAST BRIEFLY REACH CRITERIA. THE REST OF THE CWA...WITH EXCEPTION              
OF GENERALLY THE I-59 CORRIDOR...HAVE GONE WITH LAKE WIND ADVISORY.             
WARM ADVECTION RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR ALL LOCATIONS EXCEPT THE               
NORTHEAST AS RETURN FLOW STEADILY BRINGS PWATS INTO THE 1-1.15                  
RANGE.                                                                          
BY SUNDAY NIGHT...WINDS SHOULD BEGIN TO SUBSIDE SOME. WARM ADVECTION            
RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA AS MOISTURE STREAMS                
INTO REGION AND THE FRONT CONTINUES TO TRACK CLOSER TO THE REGION.              
ON MONDAY...AHEAD OF THE FRONT THERE IS THE CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT               
RAIN. THE FRONT WILL TRAVERSE THE REGION DURING THE DAY. THERE IS               
LIMITED INSTABILITY WHICH MAY ALLOW FOR SOME THUNDER. LOOKS LIKE THE            
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH JUST ABOUT THE ENTIRE AREA BY                           
MIDNIGHT...LEAVING LIGHT STRATIFORM RAIN IN ITS WAKE ACROSS MUCH OF             
MS AND LA.                                                                      
AS FOR TEMPS...WENT WITH GUIDANCE THROUGH THE PERIOD AS WARM                    
ADVECTION WILL ALLOW FOR TEMPERATURES TO WARM INTO THE 60S AND 70S              
DURING THE DAY. CLOUD COVER AND RAIN WILL LIMIT THE DIURNAL RANGE OF            
TEMPS AND BRING WARMER LOWS FOR THE CWA THAN WHAT WE HAVE BEEN                  
SEEING OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF WEEKS.                                           
AS FOR POPS...GENERALLY WENT WITH GUI POPS. DID RAISE POPS ON MON               
NIGHT/TUES MORNING AS GUI CAME IN MUCH LOWER THAN WHAT WAS                      
PREVIOUSLY FORECAST. BUMPED UP VALUES TO BLEND A LITTLE MORE WITH               
PREVIOUS IN THE THINKING THERE MIGHT BE SOME POST FRONTAL RAIN.                 
OTHERWISE...PREVIOUS FORECAST STILL STANDS FOR TUESDAY AND BEYOND.              
/28/                                                                            
THE GFS/GFES/ECMWF AND UKMET ALL INDICATE THE CP BOUNDARY WILL AT               
LEAST REACH THE ARKLAMISS AND STALL IN THE VICINITY TUESDAY. THE                
ENERGETIC SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND OCCASIONAL PERTURBATIONS WILL                
BUCKLE THE BOUNDARY RESULTING IN A FEW ROUNDS OF LIGHT TO MODERATE              
RAINFALL AND WIDE TEMPERATURE RANGES. THE BEST CHANCE OF RAIN LOOKS             
TO AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY. DO NOT SEE ANY KIND OF SIGNIFICANT WEATHER AS            
FAR AS SEVERE AND HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL ARE CONCERNED.                           
OVERALL...EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO BE A BIT MILDER THAN EXPECTED THIS             
TIME OF THE YEAR. /EC/17/                                                       
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...THE GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR EAST AND LOW              
PRESSURE TO OUR NORTHWEST WILL MAINTAIN SOUTHERLY WINDS AROUND 15               
KTS TONIGHT AND INCREASE TO 15 TO 25KTS OVER THE AREA SUNDAY. THE               
STRONGEST AND GUSTIEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE DELTA REGION.                
HIGH CLOUDS HAVE INCREASED FROM THE WEST TODAY BUT VFR CONDITIONS               
PREVAILED. VFR CONDITIONS WILL GIVE WAY TO MVFR AND OCCASIONAL IFR              
CONDITIONS AFTER MIDNIGHT FROM THE SOUTHWEST AS A LAYER OF STRATUS              
DEVELOPS AND MOVES OVER THE AREA. A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED              
TO DEVELOP FROM WEST LATE TONIGHT AS WELL. THIS WILL BE AHEAD OF A              
COLD FRONT THAT WILL DROP INTO THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT. /22/                      
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
JACKSON       47  67  58  68 /  12  15  37  40                                  
MERIDIAN      41  63  56  69 /   5  10  53  43                                  
VICKSBURG     50  70  58  65 /  24  22  26  42                                  
HATTIESBURG   44  67  58  73 /   9  15  38  25                                  
NATCHEZ       53  69  60  70 /  22  21  17  31                                  
GREENVILLE    48  67  55  55 /  23  26  45  53                                  
GREENWOOD     48  65  56  60 /   9  19  51  54                                  
&&                                                                              
.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
MS...LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO 6 PM CST SUNDAY FOR MSZ029>033-            
     037>039-043>045-047>051-053>056-059>063.                                   
     LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST SUNDAY FOR MSZ040>042.                   
     LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST SUNDAY FOR MSZ025>028-035-036.           
     WIND ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO 6 PM CST SUNDAY FOR MSZ018-019-                 
     025>028-034>036.                                                           
     LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST SUNDAY FOR MSZ018-019-034.               
LA...LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO 6 PM CST SUNDAY FOR LAZ015-016-            
     023>026.                                                                   
     LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST SUNDAY FOR LAZ007>009.                   
AR...WIND ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO 6 PM CST SUNDAY FOR ARZ074-075.                 
     LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST SUNDAY FOR ARZ074-075.                   
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
28/22/17/EC                                                                     
</pre> ms                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE                                        
334 PM CST SAT DEC 13 2008                                                      
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY.                                          
WE HAVE A COUPLE OF STORM SYSTEMS TO CONSIDER IN THE SHORT TERM.                
HEADLINES...MIXED PRECIP...SNOW AMTS...AND WIND WILL ALL BE OF                  
CONCERN LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING...THEN LOW WIND CHILLS              
MONDAY MORNING.                                                                 
THE UA CHARTS FROM THIS MORNING HAD A 160KT JET DIVING SOUTHWARD                
ON THE BACKSIDE OF A TROF OVR THE PACIFIC OCEAN TOWARD CA. 220M HT              
FALLS WERE NOTED OVR OREGON AND SRN ID WITH COLD -35 DEG TEMPS AT               
H5. AT H7 STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WERE NOTED AHEAD OF THE MID               
LEVEL TROF. AT H85 A 70 KT JET WAS REPORTED AT TOPEKA. BY                       
20Z...THE RUC WAS SHOWING A 120-140KT JET OVR CO AND THIS WAS                   
AIDING RIPPLES IN THE FLOW ACRS THE PLAINS. THE GFS DID A BETTER                
JOB WITH THE PRECIP THAT DEVELOPED OVR MO WITH THE MOISTURE RETURN              
AND STRONG WAA.                                                                 
THE LATEST SFC ANALYSIS HAD THE TIGHTEST SFC PRES GRADIENT OVR MO               
AND VERY WARM TEMPS IN OUR CWA IN THE 40S AND 50S. SFC LOW PRES                 
WAS ORGANIZING OVR WY/CO. THE CDFNT WAS SOUTH OF PIR SD AND                     
STRETCHED EASTWARD TO AROUND ST. CLOUD MN. IN OUR AREA...WE HAVE A              
PSEUDO WRMFNT NORTH OF TQE AND NR DENISON...SOUTH OF THIS                       
BOUNDARY...THERE IS GOOD MIXING WITH TEMPS IN THE 50S AND NORTH OF              
THE BOUNDARY...TEMPS ARE IN THE 40S WITH LIGHTER SFC WINDS.                     
DECIDED TO GO WITH A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY STARTING AT MIDNIGHT               
FOR THE FOUR NORTHERN COUNTIES IN OUR CWA. THE PRECIPITATION MAY                
START OUT AS FREEZING DRIZZLE OR LIGHT FREEZING RAIN BEFORE                     
SWITCHING OVER TO SNOW. THE TIMING OF THE START OF THE                          
PRECIPITATION IS STILL BTWN 06-09Z WITH THE CD AIR BARRELING IN TO              
THE NORTHEAST BETWEEN 09-12Z THEN THROUGHOUT THE MORNING FOR THE                
REST OF THE CWA. IN ADDITION...THE LIGHT SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW                  
WILL REDUCE VISIBILITIES. THE SNOW STILL APPEARS TO BE LIGHT AND                
COULD SEE A COUPLE OF INCHES AND WILL MENTION 1 TO AS HIGH AS 2 OR              
3 NEAR THE SD BORDER. THERE IS A GOOD AGEOSTROPHIC CIRCULATION IN               
THE NORTH ALONG WITH UVV AND FRONTOGENSIS. Q-VECTO FORCING IS                   
BETTER NORTH AND THE MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS APPEARS TO REMAIN IN               
THE DAKOTAS AND MINNESOTA...THEN TRIES TO DEVELOP OVR SE NEB                    
DURING THE EVENING...BUT IS BETTER ORGANIZED OVR KS AND MO. WITH                
THE 20-30KT WINDS AND GUSTS 35 TO 40KT ISSUED WIND ADVISORIES FOR               
SUNDAY ACRS THE REST OF THE CWA. THE WINDS REMAIN STRONG INTO THE               
EVENING. LEFT SNOWSHOWERS AND FLURRIES IN DURING THE EVENING. THE               
SOUTHERN SNOWBAND THAT IS PROGGED TO DEVELOP SHOULD REMAIN SOUTH                
OF THE CWA. WITH THE COLD TEMPERATURE AND STRONG WINDS MONDAY                   
MORNING...WIND CHILL ADVISORY CRITERIA SHOULD BE MET.                           
THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM FOR LATE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY ALSO LOOKS              
POTENT AND A BETTER SNOW PRODUCER. STRONG H85 WAA SETS UP AND WITH              
CD AIR IN PLACE AND STRONG LIFT AND BETTER PV SIGNALS...INCREASED               
POPS TO THE LIKELY CATEGORY AND ADDED QPF/SNOWAMTS OF 1-4 INCHES.               
TEMPS STILL 10 TO 20 DEG BELOW NORMAL BOTH MON AND TUESDAY.                     
.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY.                                    
12Z GFS IS IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT WITH BOTH 00Z AND 12Z ECMWF                  
CONSIDERING THE RATHER LARGE UNCERTAINTIES INHERENT IN A PATTERN OF             
SW FLOW ALOFT.  THESE ARISE FROM SHORT WAVES IN BOTH BRANCHES OF                
PARTIALLY SPLIT FLOW.  SOUTHERN STREAM WAVES TAP INTO GOOD MOISTURE             
SOURCE TO THE SOUTH...WHILE NORTHERN STREAM PRODUCES NEW SURGES OF              
ARCTIC AIR.  THUS...THE DETAILS OF TIMING THESE WAVES CAN BE                    
EXPECTED TO GO WRONG DURING THIS FORECAST PERIOD.  HOWEVER...THERE              
IS BETTER CONFIDENCE THAT SNOW COVER WILL EXIST OVER MOST OR ALL OF             
THE AREA...HELPING TO KEEP NEAR SURFACE AIR WELL REFRIGERATED                   
DESPITE OCCASIONAL WARMING ALOFT.                                               
EXPECT SEVERAL PUSHES OF ARCTIC AIR...LIKELY ONGOING EARLY                      
WED...THEN AGAIN NEXT FRI OR SAT.  IN BETWEEN...WARM ADVECTION WILL             
SET UP A CHC OF PRECIP MOSTLY THURSDAY INTO EARLY FRIDAY.  BOTH GFS             
AND ECMWF WARM UP THICKNESSES AND TEMPS ALOFT ENOUGH TO SUGGEST THAT            
THERE COULD BE FREEZING RAIN AT LEAST IN THE SOUTHEAST CORNER OF                
NEBRASKA AND SW IA DURING THE DAY THU...AS SFC AIR TEMPS ARE NOT                
EXPECTED TO RISE ABOVE FREEZING.  FLURRIES ARE ALSO LIKELY EARLY WED            
NIGHT AS THE ARCTIC AIR SURGES...AND WITH ANY OTHER LATER SURGE.                
TEMPS THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL MOSTLY RANGE BETWEEN 0 AND               
32...BUT COULD EASILY GO COLDER IF TIMING ALLOWS GOOD RADIATION SOME            
NIGHT.                                                                          
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
FOR TAF SITES KOFK/KOMA/KLNK THROUGH 14/18Z.                                    
STRONG ARCTIC FRONT PUSHING SWD INTO CNTRL PLAINS DURING THE PD. AT             
THIS POINT...STRONG WIND THREAT AND CROSS WIND ACTIVITY IS THE MAIN             
CONCERN ALL SITES. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL REMAIN STRONG UNTIL                     
FROPA...AROUND 08Z AT KOFK/13Z KLNK/14Z KOMA. CROSS WIND ACTIVITY               
WITH GUSTS 30KT OR GREATER WILL BE DEFINITE FACTOR ALL SITES                    
GENERALLY 2 HOURS LEADING UP TO FROPA. OTHERWISE...CHANCE FOR -SN               
MAINLY AT KOFK BTW 14/12Z-18Z TIME FRAME. WILL OPT TO NOT INCLUDE               
-FZRASN MIX FOR KOFK AT THIS TIME...AND WILL REEVALUATE AT NEXT TAF             
ISSUANCE 14/00Z.                                                                
&&                                                                              
.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
NE...WIND ADVISORY FROM 9 AM TO 9 PM CST SUNDAY FOR NEZ045-052-053-             
     067-068-089>093.                                                           
     WIND ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO 9 PM CST SUNDAY FOR NEZ015-018-                 
     030>034-042>044-050-051-065-066-078-088.                                   
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 PM CST SUNDAY           
     FOR NEZ011-012-016-017.                                                    
IA...WIND ADVISORY FROM 9 AM TO 9 PM CST SUNDAY FOR IAZ043-055-056-             
     069-079-080-090-091.                                                       
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
ZAPOTOCNY/POLLACK/DEE                                                           
</pre> ne                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE                                            
1149 PM CST THU DEC 11 2008                                                     
.AVIATION...06Z KGRI TAF. VFR CONDITIONS REFLECTED THROUGHOUT THE               
FORECAST PERIOD...BUT THERE ARE A FEW THINGS TO ADDRESS. FIRST OF               
ALL...AT THE VERY BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD TONIGHT THERE COULD BE A              
LIGHT SNOW SHOWER WITH BRIEF MVFR CEILINGS. HOWEVER...WITH CLEARING             
SKIES LIKELY MOVING INTO THE TERMINAL WITHIN AN HOUR...HAVE OPTED               
TO LEAVE OUT MENTION OF THIS. THE SECOND ISSUE IS THE POSSIBILITY               
OF SOME SHALLOW FOG AND POSSIBLE MVFR VISIBILITY DEVELOPING BEFORE              
DAWN. ALTHOUGH THIS SCENARIO WAS COVERED WITH A TEMPO GROUP IN THE              
PREVIOUS FORECAST...AFTER SOME DEBATE HAVE DECIDED TO PULL OUT                  
THIS TEMPO GROUP AS IT NOW SEEMS THAT BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING SHOULD              
REMAIN STRONG ENOUGH TO PREVENT VISIBILITIES UNDER 5 SM. OF                     
COURSE...THIS WILL BEAR WATCHING. AFTER DAYBREAK...THE MAIN ISSUE               
WILL BE INCREASING SOUTHERLY BREEZES...WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 20KTS               
LIKELY DURING THE AFTERNOON. A SECONDARY INCREASE IN WINDS WILL                 
LIKELY KICK UP BY LATE FRIDAY EVENING AS MIXING INCREASES                       
UNDERNEATH A STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET.                                       
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 947 PM CST THU DEC 11 2008/                         
DISCUSSION...UPDATED THE FORECAST FOR THIS EVENING. INCLUDED SOME               
SPRINKLES ALONG WITH FLURRIES IN THE FORECAST FOR THIS EVENING.                 
PRECIPITATION HEADING IN FROM THE NORTH IS WANING AND WILL                      
PROBABLY CONTINUE TO WANE AS THE NIGHT WEARS ON. ANOTHER AREA OF                
ECHOES SHOWING UP IN WESTERN NEBRASKA COULD MAKE ITS WAY INTO THE               
CENTRAL CWA LATER ON TONIGHT AS THE RIGHT REAR QUADRANT OF AN                   
UPPER JET WILL BE NEARBY...AND COULD KICK UP SOME FLURRIES WITH                 
A RELATIVELY NARROW AND WEAK STRAND OF MID-LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS                  
POSSIBLE. CLIPPER TROUGH AXIS WILL BE TO THE EAST...SO NO HELP FOR              
PRECIPITATION PRODUCTION THERE. RAISED TEMPERATURES A BIT FOR THE               
NEBRASKA SIDE OF THE CWA TO KEEP EVERYONE ESSENTIALLY IN THE 20S                
FOR LOWS FOR FRIDAY MORNING. BOIVERIFY SUGGESTS THAT IT COULD BE A              
TAD WARMER BASED ON RECENT MODEL OUTPUT...PLUS WIND LOOKS LIKE IT               
WILL STAY UP JUST A BIT. FOG CHANCES ARE LOOKING LESS IMPRESSIVE.               
BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT ETA AND GFS ARE NOT GOING TO BE                   
DEPENDABLE FOR FOG FORECASTS OVERNIGHT...BUT THE RUC LOOKS MORE                 
REASONABLE...SUGGESTING PATCHY SHALLOW FOG AT THE MOST.                         
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 300 PM CST THU DEC 11 2008/                          
SHORT TERM...FOR TONIGHT THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY.                                  
PAST MORNING UPPER AIR DATA ALONG WITH RECENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY               
REVEALS A DEEP UPPER TROUGH POSITIONED FROM THE HUDSON BAY REGION               
INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY.  THIS PATTERN IS LEAVING               
THE PLAINS UNDER A COLD BUT PROGRESSIVE NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME ALOFT             
AS A 120KT UPPER JET STREAK IS SEEN DIVING SLOWLY SOUTH FROM THE                
NORTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS.  THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF              
THIS JET STREAK HAS BEEN POSITIONED ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS MOST OF           
THE DAY.  THE INDIRECT CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE EXIT                     
REGION...HAS ENHANCED THE MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS ENOUGH TO BRING A             
BROKEN BAND OF LIGHT SNOW/RAIN FROM THE BLACK HILLS REGION INTO                 
SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA.                                                         
AS THE AREA HEADS INTO TONIGHT...THE LEFT EXIT REGION WILL CONTINUE             
TO SINK SLOWLY TO THE SOUTHEAST WITH BOTH THE NAM AND GFS SHOWING A             
BAND OF ENHANCED FRONTOGENESIS AROUND THE 800-700MB LAYER DROPPING              
FROM NORTH TO SOUTH ACROSS THE CWA AS WELL.  ALTHOUGH MOISTURE WITH THIS        
SYSTEM WILL REMAIN LIMITED...CAN/T RULE OUT A CONTINUED THREAT FOR              
SOME ISOLATED SNOW FLURRIES THROUGH THE EVENING TO EARLY OVERNIGHT              
HOURS. FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...ANTICIPATE CLOUD              
COVER TO ERODE OVER MOST IF NOT ALL OF THE FORECAST AREA AS                     
SUBSIDENCE TAKES CONTROL OF THE AREA.  WITH LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED AND            
GOOD RADIATING CONDITIONS EXISTING...APPEARS CONDITIONS WILL FAVOR              
AT LEAST SOME PATCHY FOG ACROSS THE AREA UNTIL SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE            
ON FRIDAY.                                                                      
FOR FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...THE UPPER PATTERN TURNS MORE ZONAL AS            
THE UPPER TROUGH PUSHES EAST TOWARD THE EAST COAST WHILE ANOTHER                
WAVE DIGS INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.  THE STRONGER ZONAL COMPONENT             
TO THE WIND FLOWING ACROSS THE ROCKIES...WILL ALLOW THE LEE TROUGH              
TO DEEPEN OVER THIS TIME PERIOD WITH WINDS TURNING BACK TO THE SOUTH            
AND INCREASING ABOVE 10 KTS.  THIS SHOULD PUSH THE CORE OF THE                  
COLDER AIR OUT OF THE REGION AS 850MB TEMPERATURES ARE SHOWN TO                 
CLIMB ABOVE 0C.  HOWEVER...THE ORIENTATION OF THE UPPER JET WILL                
ALLOW A PLUME OF CIRRUS TO STREAM OFF THE ROCKIES INTO THE PLAINS.              
THIS SHOULD LIMIT FULL MIXING/HEATING AND WILL AIM FOR HIGHS IN THE             
UPPER 30S TO MID 40S.                                                           
LONG TERM...12Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. FORECAST FOCUS IS ON                 
ARRIVAL OF MUCH COLDER AIR AND INTERMITTENT CHANCES FOR LIGHT SNOW.             
SATURDAY MARKS THE FINAL DAY OF MILD TEMPERATURES BEFORE THE ARCTIC             
AIR INTRUDES. A SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT PREVAILS ACROSS THE REGION                 
AHEAD OF UPPER LOW DIGGING OVER THE WESTERN CONUS. BREEZY SOUTH TO              
SOUTHWEST WINDS IN A TIGHTENED GRADIENT EAST OF SURFACE LOW/TROUGH              
THROUGH THE HIGH PLAINS ADVECT H85 TEMPS OF 6-10C INTO THE                      
AREA...MAKING FOR A WARM DAY ALTHOUGH IT WILL BE BREEZY TO WINDY                
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST CWA. THINGS THEN CHANGE QUICKLY AS              
STRONG COLD FRONT PUNCHES INTO THE CWA SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH ARCTIC             
AIR POURING SOUTH THROUGH THE DAY ON SUNDAY. HIGHS ON SUNDAY WILL BE            
REACHED EARLY IN THE MORNING WITH TEMPS FALLING THROUGH THE DAY PER             
STRONG CAA. BETTER DYNAMICS WITH MID-LEVEL WAVE LIFTING NORTHEAST               
OUT OF WESTERN TROUGH STAY NORTH OF THE CWA ON SUNDAY...HOWEVER A               
STRONG BAND OF LOW TO MID-LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS WORKS ITS WAY ACROSS              
THE AREA FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST WITH SOME UPPER SUPPORT FROM               
LEFT EXIT REGION OF UPPER JET STREAK. THIS FORCING SHOULD BE                    
SUFFICIENT TO PRODUCE SOME LIGHT SNOW GIVEN MOISTURE PRESENT IN THE             
LOWERING DENDRITIC LAYER. ANY ACCUMULATIONS AT THIS POINT LOOK TO BE            
LIGHT AT A HALF INCH OR LESS. MAY SEE SOME LIGHT SNOW LINGERING INTO THE        
EVENING AND HAVE KEPT SOME LOW POPS IN...ALTHOUGH MOST RECENT MODEL             
TRENDS SUGGEST A FASTER EXIT OF THIS PRECIP TO THE SOUTHEAST SO MAY             
BE ABLE TO CUT BACK FURTHER ON THESE SUNDAY NIGHT POPS WITH                     
SUBSEQUENT FORECASTS.                                                           
THE ARCTIC AIR IS FULLY ENTRENCHED BY MONDAY AND HIGHS ARE ONLY                 
FORECAST TO REACH AROUND 10F NORTH TO 15F SOUTH. SHOULD BE A DRY DAY            
WITH SUBSIDENCE AND STRONG SURFACE RIDGE BUILDING IN BEHIND INITIAL             
WAVE. COLD TEMPERATURES CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE                   
PERIOD. AFTER ANOTHER COLD DAY ON TUESDAY...WE SEE SOME SLIGHT                  
MODERATION WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY ALTHOUGH STILL HIGHS NOT EXPECTED             
TO GET OUT OF THE 20S THROUGH THIS TIME. WITH UPPER TROUGH                      
PERSISTING OVER THE WESTERN CONUS...INTERMITTENT CHANCES FOR LIGHT              
SNOW CONTINUE FROM MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD AS               
INDIVIDUAL SHORTWAVES ARE EJECTED FROM THE MEAN TROUGH                          
EAST/NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION. WITH SUCH A COLD AIRMASS IN PLACE             
AND HENCE LOW DENDRITIC LAYER...IT WON/T TAKE MUCH TO SQUEEZE OUT               
SOME LIGHT SNOW AS THESE WAVES MOVE ACROSS.                                     
AVIATION...FOR THE 18Z KGRI TAF. VFR CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED TO                  
CONTINUE FOR THE GRAND ISLAND TERMINAL THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS.               
FOR THIS AFTERNOON...A FEW SNOW FLURRIES MAY SLIP PAST THE                      
TERMINAL BUT THE COVERAGE OF ANY FLURRIES LOOKS SMALL ENOUGH TO                 
LEAVE OUT OF THE FORECAST. OTHERWISE...LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS                 
SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH SUNSET. THE EVENING TO EARLY OVERNIGHT                   
HOURS IS SOMEWHAT OF A CHALLENGE AS THE MODEL GUIDANCE ATTEMPTS TO              
LOWER CLOUD CEILINGS TO BELOW 1000 FT. HOWEVER...QUICK EXAMINATION              
OF REGIONAL SURFACE OBS SHOWS ONLY SOME SPOTTY PATCHES OF STRATUS               
WITH IFR CEILINGS. BASED ON THIS INFO...IT APPEARS AS THOUGH A DRY              
BOUNDARY LAYER WILL INHIBIT ANY STRATUS WITH IFR CEILINGS FROM                  
BECOMING WIDESPREAD AND WILL OPT TO LEAVE THE CLOUD CEILING ABOVE               
2000 FT. SIMILAR TO THIS AFTERNOON...A FEW SNOW FLURRIES MAY SLIP               
PAST THE TERMINAL AREA...BUT WITH A LOW PROBABILITY OF                          
OCCURRING...WILL LEAVE THIS OUT OF THE FORECAST. OTHERWISE...THIS               
STRATUS SHOULD ERODE AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH EITHER A SCATTERED TO                  
BROKEN CEILING NEAR 10 KFT LEFT OVER OR ALL CLOUD COVER ERODES                  
WITH AN UNLIMITED CEILING EXPECTED.                                             
&&                                                                              
.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
NE...NONE.                                                                      
KS...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
AVIATION...PFANNKUCH                                                            
</pre> ne                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE                                               
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV                                           
608 PM PST SAT DEC 13 2008                                                      
.SYNOPSIS...A SERIES OF STORM SYSTEMS WILL AFFECT THE DESERT                    
SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. WINDS WILL                 
DECREASE OVERNIGHT FOLLOWED BY MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES SUNDAY                  
THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK ALONG WITH CHANCES FOR RAIN AND SNOW. THE              
SNOW LEVEL WILL BE UNUSUALLY LOW AFTER SUNDAY NIGHT...AND SNOW MAY              
FALL DOWN TO THE DESERT FLOORS.                                                 
&&                                                                              
.UPDATE...LIGHT SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS LINCOLN                 
COUNTY THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS...BUT NO ADDITIONAL SNOW                 
ACCUMULATIONS IS EXPECTED...THUS HAVE ALLOWED THE SNOW ADVISORY TO              
EXPIRE. COLD FRONT SHIFTING SOUTH SLIGHT FASTER THAN EARLIER THOUGHT            
WITH FRONT CROSSING OVER THE KLAS VALLEY AS OF 02Z. WINDS REMAIN A              
PROBLEM ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE CWA WITH THE ADVISORIES              
STILL IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS EVENING.                                           
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...FOR MCCARRAN...COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE KLAS VALLEY             
AT 02Z WITH WINDS SWITCHING TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST. LOOK FOR WESTERLY            
FLOW ACROSS KLAS THROUGH 03Z...THEN BECOMING MORE NORTHWEST THROUGH             
05Z...BEFORE SWITCHING BACK TO MORE WESTERLY AND THEN BECOMING                  
VARIABLE AFT 08Z. CIGS TO LOWER TO NEAR 80KT FT THROUGH 08Z THEN                
BECOMING SCT CLOUD DECKS THROUGH SUNDAY. DUST WILL SLOWLY SETTLE                
WITHIN THE AREA...BUT VSBY SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE 6SM THROUGH THE                  
REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR            
CIGS BELOW 5K FEET AND SHOWERS TO THE AREA BY 12Z MONDAY WITH A MIX             
RAIN/SNOW PRECIPITATION POSSIBLE...LOWERING VSBY BLO 3SM.                       
ANOTHER SYSTEM LOOKS TO AFFECT THE AREA WEDNESDAY WITH ANOTHER                  
CHANCE FOR LOW CIGS AND SHOWERS...WITH YET ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SNOW              
OR A RAIN/SNOW MIX.                                                             
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION...420 PM PST SHORT TERM...PREFRONTAL WINDS WERE                
STRONG ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA TODAY BUT THE              
LATEST OBSERVATIONS WERE INDICATING A SLIGHT DECREASING TREND. HIGH             
DOWNSLOPE WINDS ON THE EAST SLOPES OF THE SPRING MOUNTAINS DECREASED            
AFTER 21Z AND WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.             
A WIND ADVISORY WILL REPLACE HIGH WIND WARNINGS FOR THE SPRING                  
MOUNTAINS...WESTERN SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY AND THE EASTERN SIERRA                
SLOPES. THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WAS STILL 14-15 MB BETWEEN LAX            
AND LAS BUT THE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH CLARK COUNTY BY 03Z AND            
WINDS WILL DIMINISH BEHIND IT. THE 18Z NAM AND LATEST RUC INDICATE              
THE FRONT WILL WASH OUT AS IT MOVES THROUGH WITH NO STRONG PUSH OF              
NORTH WINDS MAKING IT INTO FAR SOUTHERN NEVADA. SNOW SHOWERS OVER               
LINCOLN COUNTY SHOULD DIMINISH AFTER 02Z BEHIND THE FRONT AND ONLY              
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED OVER NORTHERN MOHAVE COUNTY. THE                 
BROAD UPPER LOW SETTLES IN AND ZONAL FLOW SHOULD KEEP THE AREA                  
MAINLY DRY AND COLD SUNDAY BEFORE A SUBSTANTIAL PLUME OF MOISTURE               
MOVES ACROSS SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA INTO ARIZONA MONDAY. THE NORTHERN              
EDGE OF THE PLUME WILL BE PULLED ACROSS SOUTHERN NEVADA AND THE                 
LATEST GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE TRACK OF THE                
UPPER LOW AND MOISTURE. THE SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL BRING SLIGHT WARMING            
ALOFT BUT SNOW LEVELS WILL STILL BE 2500-3000 FEET OVER SOUTHERN                
NEVADA MONDAY MORNING. HOWEVER...IT LOOKS LIKE THE MOISTURE SHOT                
WILL BE RATHER QUICK...BETWEEN 12Z AND 18Z FOR THE VALLEYS. THE                 
MOUNTAINS WILL SEE MORE PROLONGED OROGRAPHICALLY ENHANCED PRECIP.               
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WHICH WOULD WARRANT A WATCH SHOULD BE CONFINED TO            
TERRAIN ABOVE 4000 FEET. HOWEVER...A FEW INCHES OF SNOW                         
ACCUMULATION...ESPECIALLY ON GRASSY SURFACES...ALONG THE FOOTHILLS              
AROUND THE LAS VEGAS VALLEY STILL LOOK LIKE A DECENT BET. THE GFS               
BUFR FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW A WARMER BOUNDARY LAYER WITH SOUTHERLY             
WINDS THAN THE NAM BUFR...INDICATING HIGHER WET BULB ZEROS AND SNOW             
LEVELS CLOSER TO 3000 FEET. PRECIPITATION WILL TAPER OFF MONDAY                 
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS THE MOISTURE PLUME MOVES ENTIRELY INTO                 
ARIZONA.                                                                        
.LONG TERM...AN UPPER LOW WILL MOVE SOUTHWARD INTO NORCAL BY TUESDAY            
AFTERNOON WITH ADDITIONAL RIPPLES OF ENERGY MOVING THROUGH THE BASE             
OF THE UPPER TROUGH WHICH WILL BE RIGHT ACROSS SOCAL/SOUTHERN NEVADA            
AND NORTHERN AZ. BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON THE LEFT REAR QUAD A 130 KT+              
JETSTREAK WILL BE ACROSS THE MOJAVE DESERT ACCOMPANIED BY A PLUME OF            
PACIFIC MOISTURE. THIS SHOULD PUT THE AREA IN A FAVORABLE REGION TO             
SEE ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. AS THE                
UPPER LOW SINKS FURTHER SOUTH TO NEAR POINT CONCEPTION BY WEDNESDAY             
AFTERNOON THE PROXIMITY OF THE UPPER LOW AS WELL AS A PLUME OF                  
PACIFIC MOISTURE STREAMING INTO THE AREA SHOULD HELP TO INCREASE THE            
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS TO OCCUR...AND POSSIBLY MORE A STEADIER                     
STRATIFORM TYPE PRECIPITATION EVENT IN THE MOJAVE DESERT. WITH                  
PLENTY OF CHILL AIR ACROSS THE REGION SNOW LEVELS WILL REMAIN QUITE             
LOW ALLOWING FOR SNOW TO FALL IN AREAS THAT DO NOT OFTEN SEE IT. ONE            
ISSUE REMAINS JUST HOW FAR NORTHWEST THE MAIN MOISTURE PLUME GETS AS            
NORTHWEST PARTS OF THE CWFA MAY NOT SEE MUCH IF ANY PRECIP. IN LAS              
VEGAS...THERE COULD BE THE POTENTIAL ONCE AGAIN FOR SNOW OR A                   
RAIN/SNOW MIX ON WEDNESDAY AS MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST                  
P-TYPE COULD BE AN ISSUE. AGAIN THE ISSUE OF EVAPORATIONAL COOLING              
COULD COME INTO PLAY AS WELL ENHANCING THE PROSPECTS FOR SNOW OR A              
RAIN/SNOW MIX. WINTER WEATHER PRODUCTS MAY BE NEEDED FOR PARTS OF               
THE AREA AS THE MOISTURE SUPPLY WILL BE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT                       
ACCUMULATING SNOW IN AT LEAST THE HIGHER PORTIONS OF THE MOJAVE                 
DESERT. BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT THE SYSTEM FINALLY EXITS TO THE EAST AND             
A DRIER NORTHWEST FLOW TAKES OVER FOR THURSDAY. THE GENERAL                     
CONSENSUS FROM THE OPERATIONAL MODELS AND GFS ENSEMBLES WERE IN                 
DECENT AGREEMENT TO SUPPORT LOWERING POPS SHARPLY AND BRIGHTENING               
SKIES SOME BUT IT SHOULD STILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL WITH A SUBTLE                
RISE IN TEMPS. NEVERTHELESS WE SHOULD CATCH A BREAK FROM THE CLOUDS             
AND SHOWERS LATER IN THE WEEK. ANOTHER SYSTEM MAY DROP DOWN FROM THE            
NORTH BY NEXT WEEKEND BUT MODELS REMAIN IN DISAGREEMENT WITH JUST               
HOW FAR SOUTH IT GETS OR WHEN IT MAY EVEN SHOW UP.                              
&&                                                                              
FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA...NORTHWEST ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST             
CALIFORNIA...WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN HAZARD TODAY WITH MECHANICAL                
TURBULENCE DUE TO THE STRONG WINDS ALOFT AND MOUNTAIN WAVE POTENTIAL            
WILL EXIST TO THE LEE OF MOUNTAINS. IN THE OWENS VALLEY...GUSTY                 
NORTH WINDS THIS EVENING OF 30-40 KTS WILL LESSEN BY AROUND 6Z SUN.             
IN THE MOJAVE DESERT...GUSTY WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS IN EXCESS OF 35            
KTS WILL OCCUR WITH THE STRONGEST GUSTS EXCEEDING 50 KTS. BLOWING               
DUST IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO EARLY TONIGHT AND REDUCE VSBY.                
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO LESSEN AREAWIDE THIS EVENING FROM WEST TO EAST            
AND BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE TOWARDS DAYBREAK TOMORROW. SHSN                   
ACCOMPANIED BY LOW CIGS AND MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS IN LINCOLN AND                
NORTHERN MOHAVE COUNTY TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW MORNING. WINDS WILL                
THEN BECOME SOUTHWEST TOMORROW AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM               
WHICH WILL BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR CIGS BELOW 5K FEET AND SHOWERS TO            
THE AREA LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. MOUNTAIN                        
OBSCURATIONS ARE POSSIBLE AND SNOW LEVELS WILL BE QUITE LOW ALLOWING            
FOR THE POTENTIAL OF LOW ELEVATION SNOW. ANOTHER SYSTEM LOOKS TO                
MOVE IN WEDNESDAY WITH ANOTHER CHANCE FOR LOW CIGS AND SHOWERS WITH             
YET ANOTHER CHANCE FOR MANY LOW ELEVATIONS TO SEE SNOW. &&                      
.VEF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
NV...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH LATE                     
     MONDAY NIGHT FOR NVZ018-019.                                               
     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT PST TONIGHT FOR NVZ016-017-020>022.           
AZ...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM MST SUNDAY FOR AZZ001>003-036.                    
CA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT PST TONIGHT FOR CAZ524>527.                   
     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM PST THIS EVENING FOR CAZ520. &&                   
$$                                                                              
JENSEN/ADAIR/STACHELSKI                                                         
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/LASVEGAS                                                     
</pre> nv                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM                                         
733 PM MST SAT DEC 13 2008                                                      
.UPDATE...                                                                      
NO CHANGES MADE TO ONGOING HEADLINES. MADE A FEW CHANGES TO THE                 
DETAILS FOR WINTER STORM TONIGHT AND WINDS THROUGH SUNDAY. ALSO                 
USED OPPORTUNITY TO TWEAK MEDIUM RANGE FORECAST MONDAY NIGHT INTO               
WEDNESDAY BY RAISING POPS ACROSS THE NORTH AND WEST. THE LATEST                 
SURFACE AND UPPER AIR ANALYSIS SHOW THE ARCTIC FRONT APPROACHING                
THE NW PLATEAU WITH THE MID LEVEL VORTICITY AXIS FOLLOWING SUIT.                
THE NEWEST 00Z NAM/RUC SHOW SNOW WILL DEVELOP QUICKLY AFTER 1 AM                
ACROSS THE WEST SLOPES OF THE CHUSKAS...SAN JUANS...JEMEZ...AND                 
SANGRES THEN SPREAD SOUTHEAST THROUGH DAYBREAK BEFORE DISSIPATING               
TO SHOWERS DURING THE AFTERNOON. SNOW AMOUNTS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES                 
LOOK ON TARGET OVER THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS...WITH ADVISORY LEVELS               
OVER NMZ001-003-008-010-014. WINDS WILL ALSO BE PROBLEMATIC OVER                
THE HIGHER TERRAIN WITH GUSTS UP TO 65 MPH NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION              
ALONG THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN INTO SUNDAY. UTILIZED THE METMOS               
TEMPERATURE CURVE FOR SUNDAY AS HIGHS WILL LIKELY BE EARLY IN THE               
DAY ALONG AND NORTH OF I40 BEFORE TEMPS TUMBLE IN THE AFTERNOON.                
THIS FIRST SYSTEM STILL APPEARS TO BE JUST AN APPETIZER BEFORE A                
POSSIBLE MAJOR SNOW EVENT DEVELOPS MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY                
ACROSS THE NORTH AND WEST.                                                      
GUYER                                                                           
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION...304 PM MST SAT DEC 13 2008...                                
A 150 KT JET CONTINUES TO DIVE SOUTHEASTWARD PARALLEL TO THE                    
WESTERN COAST WITH A BROAD TROUGH TAKING SHAPE OVER THE                         
INTER MOUNTAIN WEST. SPEEDS AROUND THE BASE OF THIS FEATURE ARE                 
UPWARDS OF 125 KT INTO NORTHWESTERN NEW MEXICO WHILE WHITE SANDS                
AND TUCUMCARI WIND PROFILERS REVEAL SPEEDS AOA 50 KT AT H7 AND                  
ABOVE. SURFACE OBS ARE INDICATING THAT WINDS ARE JUST A FEW KNOTS               
SHY OF HIGH WIND CRITERIA ACROSS SOME CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN                    
LOCALES...BUT IT IS QUITE WINDY NONETHELESS. ONLY A FEW RADAR                   
ECHOES ARE EVIDENT OVER NORTH CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE STATE...BUT               
THIS WILL CHANGE AND INCREASE AS APPROACHING TROUGH AXIS FORCES                 
ENERGY INTO THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA TONIGHT.               
FORECAST MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT AND CONSENSUS FOR THE MOST                
PART...THUS FOCUS HAS BEEN ON HIGHLIGHTS/HAZARDS AND GENERAL                    
IMPACTS OF THIS FIRST STORM THROUGH SUNDAY AND SUBSEQUENT                       
AFTERSHOCK STORMS TRAILING INTO THE FIRST AND MIDDLE PARTS OF THE               
WORK WEEK. BEST VORTICITY ADVECTION WILL OCCUR AFTER SUNSET ACROSS              
NORTHWESTERN SECTIONS OF THE STATE WHERE PRECIP WILL BECOME MORE                
WIDESPREAD. SNOW LEVELS WILL LOWER FROM ROUGHLY 7500 FEET DOWN TO               
VALLEY FLOORS BY EARLY MORNING...THEREFORE ZONES 001 AND 003 WILL KEEP          
ADVISORIES POSTED FOR GENERALLY 1 TO 3 INCHES OF ACCUMULATION BY                
LATE SUNDAY. OTHER WINTER STORM WARNING AND ADVISORY SEGMENTS WILL              
ALSO REMAIN IN TACT AS IS. OROGRAPHICALLY ENHANCED DYNAMICS STILL               
LOOK TO FAVOR WESTERN SLOPES OF NORTHWESTERN MOUNTAINS...ALTHOUGH               
SANGRES ARE EXPECTED TO PICK UP SUFFICIENT AMOUNTS FOR WARNING.                 
WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN H7 WIND FLOW...STRONG WINDS WILL ALSO KEEP                
THINGS INTERESTING WITH VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS. WINDS WILL BE                    
STRONGEST MOSTLY ALONG RIDGE TOPS IN CENTRAL TO WESTERN AREAS OF                
THE STATE...HOWEVER LESS CLOUD COVER AND BETTER MIXING WILL KEEP                
THINGS WINDY IN THE EASTERN PLAINS. WIND ADVISORY MAY NEED TO BE                
RECONSIDERED FOR CENTRAL RIO GRANDE VALLY TOMORROW DUE TO CLOUD                 
COVER AND LESS MIXING...HOWEVER ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY WOULD QUICKLY               
TRANSFER MOMENTUM ALOFT DOWN TO THE SURFACE. WILL LET NEXT                      
SHIFT MAKE THE FINAL CALL.                                                      
BY SUNDAY NIGHT THE FOCUS TURNS MORE OROGRAPHIC AS INITIAL PULSE                
EXITS THE AREA. THINGS QUICKLY RAMP BACK UP BY MID DAY MONDAY AS                
NEXT TROUGH AXIS ROTATES THROUGH THE BROADER FEATURE. THIS POSES                
AN INTERESTING DILEMMA REGARDING THE EXPIRATION TIME OF THE WINTER              
STORM ADVISORY/WARNING. GUT FEELING IS THAT THE BEST AND LEAST                  
CONFUSING METHOD WILL BE TO ALLOW THE CURRENT WSW PRODUCT TO                    
EXPIRE SUNDAY AFTERNOON...AND ALTHOUGH SOME ADDITIONAL LIGHT                    
ACCUMULATIONS COULD OCCUR SUNDAY NIGHT IN HIGHEST TERRAIN...A NEW               
AND SEPARATE HAZARD PRODUCT WILL PROBABLY NEED TO BE ISSUED FOR                 
SECOND UPCOMING STORM FOR MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.                                  
HAVE ONLY MADE MINOR TWEAKS TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST...MOSTLY IN                
THE NORTHEAST WHERE TEMPERATURES WERE LOWERED SOME. UNSETTLED                   
PATTERN LOOKS TO CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY BEFORE A QUICK LIVED DRIER              
SLUG OF WEST SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW SETS UP. BY NEXT SUNDAY ADDITIONAL              
ENERGY MIGRATES INTO THE SOUTHWEST WITH ELEVATED PRECIPITATION                  
CHANCES RETURNING.                                                              
52                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
STRONG TO VERY STRONG WEST AND SOUTHWEST WINDS...MORE OFTEN THAN                
NOT...WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY ALONG AND EAST OF THE CENTRAL MT             
CHAIN...WITH SOMEWHAT LOWER BUT STILL BRISK WINDS WEST OF THE                   
CENTRAL MT CHAIN. SOME MT WAVE ACTIVITY IS LIKELY TO CONTINUE                   
THROUGH THE PERIOD TO THE EAST OF MOST OF THE HIGHER RANGES OF THE              
STATE...BUT WILL LIKELY BE MOST PRONOUNCED TO THE EAST OF THE                   
CENTRAL MT CHAIN. THE STRONGEST SURFACE WINDS OF 25 TO NEARLY 40 KTS            
WITH SOME GUSTS BETWEEN 40 AND 55 KTS...EVEN STRONGER ALOFT...SHOULD            
BE JUST TO THE LEE OF THE CENTRAL MT CHAIN INTO MID EVE OR SO...THEN            
IT MAY SUBSIDE A LITTLE ONLY TO INCREASE AFTER MIDNIGHT IN A MORE               
SPOTTY AND ERRATIC FASHION COMPARED WITH THIS AFTN. DURING THE LATE             
MORN AND AFTN SUNDAY...THE STRONGER WINDS SHOULD BECOME MORE                    
WIDESPREAD AGAIN. AREAS OF RAIN AND SNOW WILL SPREAD INTO THE W AND             
NW LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY...SPREADING EASTWARD ACROSS THE                
REST OF N AND W WITH SOME OF IT MAKING IT INTO CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST            
NM. CIGS WILL FREQUENTLY BE IN THE IFR AND MVFR RANGE VERY LATE                 
TONIGHT THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY AFTN SUNDAY W OF A LINE FROM ROUGHLY             
KRTN TO SOCORRO...WHILE ELSEWHERE VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD DOMINATE                
THOUGH SOME PATCHY BLOWING DUST IS LIKELY TO THE E OF THE CENTRAL MT            
CHAIN.                                                                          
43                                                                              
NEXT AVIATION DISCUSSION SCHEDULED FOR 10Z. 43                                  
.FIRE WEATHER...                                                                
UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE FOR THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE...THOUGH             
A 2 OR 3 DAY BREAK IS POSSIBLE BETWEEN FRI AND SUN OF NEXT WEEK.                
MAJOR SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE HIGHER                     
TERRAIN...ESPECIALLY W AND N NM...WHERE 1 1/2 TO POSSIBLY 3 OR 4 FT             
OF SNOW IS POSSIBLE. THE HIGHER END AMOUNTS SHOULD BE LIMITED TO                
HIGH TERRAIN NEAR THE CO AND AZ STATE LINE. WIND WILL BE THE OTHER              
STORY THROUGH THE NEXT 2 DAYS OR SO. STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE FROM               
THIS LATE AFTN INTO SUNDAY AFTERNOON...FAVORING THE CENTRAL MTN                 
CHAIN AND POINTS JUST TO THE EAST. GUSTS BETWEEN 45 AND 60 MPH WILL             
BE POSSIBLE THERE. HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL TREND HIGHER ON SUNDAY AND              
MONDAY AND REMAIN THAT WAY THROUGH MOST OF NEXT WEEK.                           
43                                                                              
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS UPDATE...                                         
FARMINGTON......................  31  32  20  35 /  60  60  10  40              
GALLUP..........................  29  31  18  35 /  60  70  20  50              
GRANTS..........................  30  34  17  37 /  50  60  10  30              
GLENWOOD........................  35  46  27  48 /  20  60  20  20              
CHAMA...........................  24  26   1  27 /  90  80  20  50              
LOS ALAMOS......................  27  33  17  35 /  30  50  20  50              
RED RIVER.......................  23  24   3  23 /  70  90  20  30              
TAOS............................  27  30  13  31 /  50  60  10  30              
SANTA FE........................  31  35  18  38 /  20  40  10  50              
SANTA FE AIRPORT................  30  37  20  37 /  20  40  10  50              
ESPANOLA........................  24  41  19  41 /  30  40  10  30              
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS.............  36  43  29  43 /  10  20  10  40              
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY..............  32  44  24  46 /  10  20  10  40              
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS...........  33  42  24  42 /  10  20  10  40              
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA...........  33  44  25  47 /  10  20  10  40              
SOCORRO.........................  31  56  27  49 /   5  20   5  10              
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST.........  27  36  17  38 /  10  30  10  50              
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA...............  26  42  21  40 /  10  30  10  40              
CARRIZOZO.......................  40  55  30  44 /   5  20   5  10              
RUIDOSO.........................  35  48  28  42 /   5  20   5  20              
RATON...........................  31  42  11  30 /  10  20  10  20              
LAS VEGAS.......................  34  39  14  32 /  10  20  10  30              
ROY.............................  34  43  18  31 /  10  20   5  20              
CLAYTON.........................  35  42  13  28 /   5  10   5  10              
SANTA ROSA......................  39  54  23  43 /   5  20   5  10              
TUCUMCARI.......................  43  53  20  36 /   0  10   5  10              
FORT SUMNER.....................  37  59  23  41 /   5  10   5   5              
CLOVIS..........................  42  60  20  37 /   0   5   5   5              
PORTALES........................  40  61  19  40 /   0   5   5   5              
ROSWELL.........................  43  67  34  46 /   0   0   5   5              
&&                                                                              
.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 5 PM MST SUNDAY              
FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...NMZ001-003.                                           
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 5 PM MST SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING                    
ZONES...NMZ002-004.                                                             
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM MST SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...                  
NMZ006-007-009-013-015-018>021.                                                 
HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 5 PM MST SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...              
NMZ005-010>012-016-017-026.                                                     
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM MST SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING                 
ZONES...NMZ008-014.                                                             
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
GUYER                                                                           
</pre> nm                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY                                          
1225 AM EST FRI DEC 12 2008                                                     
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
A STORM SYSTEM MOVING UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD WILL CONTINUE THE                 
WINTRY MIX OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS NORTHEASTERN PENNSYLVANIA AND                
CENTRAL NEW YORK TONIGHT. PRECIPITATION WILL BECOME ALL SNOW BY FRIDAY          
MORNING BEFORE ENDING. COLDER AIR AND LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS                  
WILL RETURN TO UPSTATE NEW YORK FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH HIGH PRESSURE               
AND MAINLY FAIR WEATHER SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.                                   
&&                                                                              
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...                                         
AS OF 930 PM EST...                                                             
FCST HAS BEEN A NIGHTMARE SO FAR TONIGHT. WIDESPREAD PCPN HAS                   
OVRSPRD CWA WITH ICING FROM THE POCONOS AND CATSKILLS INTO THE SRN              
TIER. QUITE A BIT OF ICING BEING REPORTED ACRS SULLIVAN CNTY AND                
ALSO IN BRADFORD/SUSQUEHANNA WITH FAIRLY RECENT REPORTS FROM                    
LUZERNE AND LACKAWANNA. OF COURSE...THIS IS ALL ELEVATION DRIVEN                
WITH VALLEYS SEEING ALL RAIN.                                                   
FURTHER NORTH INTO SRN TIER...MIXING LINE HAS MADE IT TO ITHACA                 
AND UTICA WHICH LOOKED TO BE OUT OF REACH EARLIER. THIS IS A MAJOR              
FLY IN THE OINTMENT AS FAR AS HEADLINES GO. HV GOTTEN SEVERAL 3-4               
INCH REPORTS ON EXTREME NW PORTION OF STORM FROM HORSEHEADS TO                  
ITHACA TO NRN OTSEGO CNTY. BUT EVEN THESE AREAS ARE MIXING AT                   
TIMES AND PLAYING HAVOC AS TO WHAT WE THOUGHT WUD BE GOING ON AT                
THIS POINT.                                                                     
LATEST RUC ANALYSIS IS EXTREMELY DISCOURAGING WHEN VIEWING CURRENT              
HEADLINES. HOWEVER...GUT INSTINCT TELLS ME IT IS PROBABLY CLOSEST TO            
BEING RIGHT. 0C 850 LINE NOT PUSHING INTO SRN TIER UNTIL AFT 06Z.               
THIS IS SIGNIFICANTLY DELAYING TURNOVER TO SNOW AND IS CUTTING                  
INTO SNOW ACCUM TIME. MODERATE FZRA OCCURRING AT BGM ALONG WITH                 
OCNL SLEET AND A FEW FLAKES OF SNOW. THUS HV SHOVED LINE OF                     
SNOW/SLEET AND FZRA AS FAR NORTH AS ITH...CORTLAND AND UTICA THRU               
06Z WITH A TRANSITION OVR TO SNOW AFT THIS TIME AS LOPRES HEADS                 
UP THE COAST AND WINDS GO MORE NORTHERLY BHND IT.                               
AFT THIS POINT...SHUD SEE A TRANSITION TO SNOW AT LEAST ACRS THE                
SRN TIER AND INTO OTSEGO AND CHENANGO CNTYS. FURTHER SOUTH IS                   
STILL UP FOR GRABS AS 0C LINE DOES NOT EVEN MAKE IT TO SERN ZONES               
UNTIL AFT 12Z WITH FZRA AND SLEET EXPECTED THRU THIS TIME.                      
HAVING SAID THAT...FLIES CONTINUE TO CONGREGATE IN THE OINTMENT AS              
DRY SLOT WORKING INTO NRN VIRGINIA SHUD EFFECTIVELY SHUT MOST OF                
THE PCPN OFF ACRS THE ERN SXNS BTWN 09Z-12Z...JUST AS COLDEST AIR               
MVS IN. WILL HV TO WAIT UNTIL BTWN 12Z-18Z TO SEE WRAP-ARND PCPN                
ON BACKSIDE FOR POSSIBLY THE BEST CHC FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW.                    
HV MADE MAJOR CHGS TO NR TERM GRIDS. HV ESSENTIALLY NO SNOW ACCUMS              
IN VALLEYS TONIGHT EXCEPT OVR CNTRL SRN TIER WHERE AREA IS IN ALL               
SNOW OUT TWD ELM AND TEMP SITS AT 29 DEGREES. HV ALSO TWEAKED                   
TEMPS TO HOLD FAIRLY STEADY TONIGHT. ALSO MADE CHGS TO P-TYPES                  
EARLY ON AND TO POPS LATER IN THE PD. UPDATED GRIDS ARE OUT. TEXT               
PRODUCTS WILL BE OUT SOON.                                                      
PREV DISCUSSION...                                                              
MIXED WINTER STORM WELL UNDERWAY WITH PRECIP STRUNG OUT                         
UNDERNEATH POLAR JET ENTRANCE REGION TO OUR NORTH. MAIN LOW                     
PRESSURE TRUCKING AT US...AND THINGS WILL GET WORSE. 12Z MDL                    
GUIDANCE SEEMS TO BE LOCKED IN NOW. SIGNIFICANT QPF IN EXCESS OF                
AN INCH OVER NEPA...WITH ABOUT A HALF INCH EXTENDING BACK TO THE                
FINGER LAKES EXPECTED.                                                          
PTYPE REMAINS THE MAIN HEADACHE. EXPECT BAROCLINIC ZONE AND                     
FREEZING/FROZEN LINE TO BE FAIRLY STEADY AS MAIN SYSTEM APPROACHES.             
INCREASING AGEO NELY FLOW WITHIN JET ENTRANCE CIRCULATION SHOULD                
TEND TO DRAW COLDER AIR FROM NY SWD INTO NEPA. ANY AREAS THAT ARE               
MARGINALLY MIXED RIGHT NOW WILL GO OVER TO HEAVY SNOW AS FCST                   
SOUNDINGS INDICATE ISOTHERMAL NEAR ZERO ATMOS AT BGM WHEN BEST                  
OMEGA KICKS IN THIS EVE. SOUNDINGS ACROSS NEPA AND CATSKILLS HOLD               
FZRA PROFILE UNTIL LATE.                                                        
IN A GENERAL SENSE...EXPECT SNOW BECOMING HEAVY NORTH OF I-88/RT-17.            
FZRA/IP MIX HEAVY AT TIMES OVER NRN TIER COUNTIES OF PA AND                     
DELAWARE/SULLIVAN NY. VALLEY RAIN/MOUNTAIN FZRA EXPECTED IN NEPA.               
ALL PROLONGED ICING AREAS STAND TO BE IN EXCESS OF HALF INCH...WORST            
CASE SCENARIO UP TO AN INCH ACCRETION. BELIEVE MORE SNOW AMOUNTS                
WILL PILE UP NORTH OF CURRENT WARNING...SO HAVE EXTENDED ANOTHER                
TIER OF COUNTIES TO THE NORTH TO INCLUDE ALL OF CNTRL SRN                       
TIER...PORTIONS OF FINGER LAKES AND THE MOHAWK VALLEY. SEE WARNING              
AND FCSTS FOR TOTALS. HOPE WE DIDN/T GO TOO CONSERVATIVE IN THE                 
COLD AIR WITH BUFKIT SOUNDING AT ITH/BGM INDICATING 1.5 INCH                    
LIQUID.                                                                         
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...                               
STORM DEPARTS FRIDAY MORNING. HAD TO INCREASE POPS FOR LINGERING                
SNOW SHOWERS IN A DEFORMATION ZONE SHOWING UP IN THE PROGS ACROSS               
EASTERN ZONES...POSSIBLY THROUGH 18Z. LAKE EFFECT DEVELOPS FOR THE              
MOHAWK VALLEY-SYR CORRIDOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. LOOKS QUITE              
UNSTABLE...BUT INVERSION HEIGHT DROPS DOWN TO BELOW 850 MB.                     
COULDN/T SPEND TOO MUCH TIME ON THE DETAILS RIGHT NOW...BUT I HAVE              
A HUNCH WE MAY BE LOOKING AT ADVISORY SNOWFALL.                                 
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. MOS GUIDANCE                   
TEMPS MAY NOT BE PICKING UP ON THE UPCOMING SNOW PACK...AND MAY                 
HAVE WARMED A BIT TOO MUCH. PICKED THE COLDEST SOLUTION FOR NOW                 
AND WILL REFINE THESE IDEAS TOMORROW.                                           
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...                                   
FOLLOWED HPC GUIDANCE FOR EXTENDED PERIOD. INITIALLY H5 RIDGE OVER              
NORTHEAST WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH FROPA MONDAY NIGHT THEN                  
AREA IN MORE OF A SOUTHWEST UPPER LEVEL FLOW WITH TROF NEAR FOUR                
CORNERS AND SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE BUILDING ACROSS THE SE US.                       
TEMPS WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT THEN               
CLOSER TO NORMAL REST OF PERIOD. BEST CHC FOR PRECIP LATE MONDAY                
THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING WITH FROPA. WEAK WAVES PASSING TO OUR                   
SOUTH REST OF EXTENDED WILL KEEP CHC POPS FOR REMAINDER OF                      
FORECAST ESP SOUTHERN PTN OF CWA.                                               
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...                                       
DRYSLOT RAPIDLY TAPERING PRECIP OFF FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST                 
ATTM...WITH SYR/RME SEEING THE HEAVIEST SNOW AND ITH/BGM/ELM                    
TAPERING OFF WITH ITH/BGM IFR DUE TO CIGS AND ELM IMPROVING TO                  
MVFR. RAIN IS TAPERING TO SHRA AT AVP WITH MVFR VSBYS/CIGS.                     
SNOW MAY NOT FULLY TAPER OFF AT SYR/RME AS A BAND OF SNOW WEST OF               
THE DRYSLOT PULLS EAST TOWARDS DAYBREAK...LIKELY GIVING ALL SITES               
EXCEPT AVP ANOTHER BOUT OF IFR SN WITH AVP CHANGING TO MVFR SHSN                
BEFORE TAPERING OFF BY LATE MORNING. THIS SNOW BAND WILL PULL EAST OF           
THE AREA BY EARLY AFTERNOON WITH MVFR CIGS /IFR AT ITH-BGM/                     
PERSISTING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON EXCEPT IMPROVEMENT TO LOW VFR AT               
AVP. THIS EVENING...SOME LAKE EFFECT SHSN POSSIBLE AT SYR WITH                  
MVFR CIGS PERSISTING OVER CNY SITES...AND AVP VFR.                              
NORTHERLY WINDS AROUND 10KTS WILL BECOME NORTHWEST 10-15KTS THIS                
MORNING AND THROUGH THE DAY TODAY BEFORE DIMINISHING TO 5-10KTS                 
THIS EVENING.                                                                   
OUTLOOK...                                                                      
SATURDAY-SUNDAY NIGHT...VFR.                                                    
MONDAY...CHC MVFR SHRA...ESP IN THE AFTERNOON FOR CNY SITES AS                  
COLD FRONT APPROACHES.                                                          
MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY...MVFR IN SHRA CHANGING TO SHSN AS COLD FRONT              
PASSES THROUGH THE AREA.                                                        
&&                                                                              
.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
PA...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR                      
     PAZ038>040-043-044-047-048-072.                                            
NY...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR NYZ009-              
     022>025-036-037-044>046-055>057-062.                                       
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR                   
     NYZ015>018.                                                                
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SYNOPSIS...JAB/PVN                                                              
NEAR TERM...PVN                                                                 
SHORT TERM...JAB                                                                
LONG TERM...RRM                                                                 
AVIATION...JMA                                                                  
</pre> ny                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC                                             
1225 PM EST SAT DEC 13 2008                                                     
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVER CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA THIS                      
AFTERNOON. AS THE SURFACE HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE TONIGHT...A SOUTHERLY             
RETURN FLOW WILL DEVELOP OVER THE AREA...BRINGING INCREASED CLOUD               
COVER...WARMER TEMPERATURES...AND A CHANCE FOR LIGHT RAIN BY MONDAY.            
&&                                                                              
.NEAR TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/...                                               
AS OF 1000 AM SATURDAY...                                                       
CHANGES NEARLY INSIGNIFICANT THIS MORNING...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE               
HAS MIGRATED NORTHEASTWARD INTO NE ALABAMA...WITH SURFACE WINDS OVER            
THE NC BECOMING MORE NORTHERLY.  THE 12Z RAOB FROM GSO FEATURED A               
STRONG SUBSIDENCE INVERSION WITH ITS BASE JUST ABOVE 850MB.  VERY               
DRY AIR JUST ABOVE THE INVERSION WAS QUITE DRIER THAN FORECAST IN               
BUFR SOUNDINGS.  THE CIRRUS SHIELD AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE            
MOVING OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS IS JUST BEGINNING TO REACH THE                   
APPALACHIANS.                                                                   
ONLY CHANGES WILL BE TO LOWER TEMPS AN DEWPOINTS JUST A TAD.  THE               
12Z OBSERVED THICKNESS AT GSO WAS 1284M...3 METERS LOWER THAN                   
FORECAST...WHICH SUGGEST HIGHS A DEGREE OR TWO COOLER THAN                      
FORECAST.  WITH INCREASING CLOUD COVER AND CAA (ALTHOUGH                        
WEAKENING)...THIS SEEMS REASONABLE.  WILL ALSO LOWER DEWPOINTS                  
MINIMALLY...SINCE MUCH DRIER AIR THAN FORECAST ABOVE THE SUBSIDENCE             
INVERSION SHOULD KEEP DEWPOINTS IN THE MID TO UPPER TEENS THROUGH               
DAYTIME MIXING. -SMITH                                                          
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...                                                          
SFC ANALYSIS THIS MORNING SHOWED 1029 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER            
ALABAMA...WITH A SFC RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING NORTH INTO THE OH VALLEY.             
A SFC TROUGH AXIS WAS LOCATED ACROSS THE WESTERN CAROLINAS. ALOFT...            
WV IMAGERY AND RUC MODEL DATA SHOW A POTENT SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY                 
TRAVERSING THE AREA.                                                            
TODAY AND TONIGHT:                                                              
STRONG SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE POTENT SHORTWAVE CROSSING THE AREA                 
EARLY THIS MORNING WILL HELP SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILD EAST OVER THE              
CAROLINAS THIS AFTERNOON. THE ~1030 MB SFC HIGH IS EXPECTED TO BE               
CENTERED DIRECTLY OVER CENTRAL NC AT ROUGHLY 18Z...MOVING OFFSHORE              
THE MID-ATLANTIC BY 12Z SUNDAY. WITH SUBSIDENCE AT THE SFC AND                  
ALOFT...EXPECT SUNNY SKIES THROUGH EARLY/MID AFTERNOON. ABUNDANT                
SUNSHINE WILL NOT LAST TOO LONG...HOWEVER...AS UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE             
ASSOC/W A DEEPENING SFC LOW IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES STREAMS                   
EASTWARD TOWARD THE CAROLINAS VIA A 75-100 KT WESTERLY JET. FCST                
SOUNDINGS SHOW BROKEN TO OVERCAST MID/UPPER LEVEL CEILINGS ACROSS               
THE ENTIRE AREA BY ROUGHLY 00Z THIS EVENING. AS SUCH...WILL SHOW                
INCREASING CLOUD COVER FROM WEST TO EAST AFTER 18Z...WITH MOSTLY                
CLOUDY SKIES FROM SUNSET THROUGH AT LEAST MIDNIGHT. FCST SOUNDINGS              
HINT AT SOME CLEARING AFTER MIDNIGHT...AND WILL SHOW A DECREASE TO              
PARTLY CLOUDY FROM MIDNIGHT TO SUNRISE.                                         
FOR TEMPS...MOS GUIDANCE AGREES PRETTY WELL (ALBEIT A FEW DEGREES               
HIGHER) WITH THE 1000-850 MB THICKNESSES OFF THE GFS/NAM...AND WILL             
COMPROMISE BETWEEN MOS GUIDANCE AND THE THICKNESSES AND SHOW A RANGE            
FROM THE MID 40S IN THE NORTHEAST COASTAL PLAIN TO THE UPPER 40S TO             
AROUND 50F IN SOUTHERN AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA. IF                     
EXTENSIVE MID/UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS ARRIVE BY EARLY AFTERNOON IN THE               
WEST...THIS MAY BE TOO WARM IN THE WEST BY A DEGREE OR TWO. LOWS                
TONIGHT SOMEWHAT DIFFICULT WITH PERVASIVE MID/UPPER LEVEL CLOUD                 
COVER EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF THE NIGHT. LOWS               
WILL ENTIRELY DEPEND ON WHICH LOCATIONS HAVE THE OPPORTUNITY TO                 
RADIATE WELL FOR SEVERAL HOURS BEFORE SUNRISE. AT THIS TIME...WILL              
BLEND CLOSE TO WHAT MOS GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING...WITH A RANGE OF                
27-30F ACROSS THE AREA DUE TO THE COOL/DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE ASSOC/W             
THE SFC HIGH. -VINCENT                                                          
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...                                    
AS OF 300 AM SATURDAY...                                                        
SUNDAY:                                                                         
SFC HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES MOVING FURTHER OFFSHORE DURING THE DAY              
SUNDAY...ALLOWING A SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE                 
CAROLINAS. THIS WILL CAUSE WARM ADVECTION TO STRENGTHEN OVER THE                
AREA BY OR SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE...ALLOWING ENOUGH MOISTURE/LIFT FOR            
LOW STRATUS TO DEVELOP. WHILE GFS/NAM FCST SOUNDINGS AGREE THAT THE             
WESTERN PIEDMONT WILL BE COMPLETELY OVERCAST IN LOW STRATUS BY                  
15-18Z...THEY ARE MORE AMBIGUOUS TOWARD THE TRIANGLE AND NORTHEAST              
COASTAL PLAIN. WILL SHOW SKIES BECOMING MOSTLY CLOUDY TO OVERCAST IN            
THE FAR WESTERN PIEDMONT BY EARLY AFTERNOON WHERE AN UPSLOPE                    
COMPONENT IN THE LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL HELP PROVIDE ADDITIONAL LIFT IN            
VICINITY OF THE FOOTHILLS/MOUNTAINS...WITH INCREASING CLOUD COVER               
(PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY) ELSEWHERE THROUGH THE DAY IN ASSOC/W                  
PERSISTENT WARM ADVECTION. A SOMEWHAT DIFFICULT HIGH TEMP FORECAST              
THAT WILL ULTIMATELY DEPEND ON CLOUD COVER. 1000-850MB THICKNESSES              
START OUT AROUND 1310-1320M 12Z SUN...INCREASING TO 1340-1350M BY               
00Z. WITH FULL SUN...THESE THICKNESSES WOULD YIELD HIGHS IN THE                 
UPPER 50S TO NEAR 60F. WITH OVERCAST LOW CLOUD COVER...HOWEVER...               
HIGHS WOULD STRUGGLE TO MAKE IT OUT OF THE 40S. WILL TREND TOWARD               
MOS GUIDANCE...SHOWING A RANGE FROM AROUND 49-50F IN THE TRIAD TO               
THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60F IN THE SE COASTAL PLAIN. WOULD NOT BE               
SURPRISED TO SEE TEMPS BUST 3-5F...DEPENDING ON THE DEGREE OF CLOUD             
COVER ACROSS THE AREA. W/REGARD TO PRECIP CHANCES...BOTH THE GFS/NAM            
SHOW LIGHT QPF IN ASSOC/W WARM ADVECTION IN THE WESTERN PIEDMONT                
AND FOOTHILLS FROM NOON THROUGH SUNSET. HOWEVER...FCST SOUNDINGS                
SHOW RATHER SHALLOW MOISTURE WITH SATURATION NOT EVEN EXTENDING UP              
TO THE 0C ISOTHERM. IT WOULD BE TOUGH TO GET MEASURABLE PRECIP IN               
THE WESTERN PIEDMONT WITH THOSE TYPE OF THERMAL/MOISTURE PROFILES...            
AND HAVE DECIDED TO REMOVE MENTION OF A SLIGHT OR LOW CHANCE OF                 
MEASURABLE RAIN AND REPLACE IT WITH A CHANCE OF DRIZZLE IN THE FAR              
WESTERN PIEDMONT BEGINNING IN THE AFTERNOON. A BETTER CHANCE FOR A              
FEW HUNDREDTHS OF LIGHT RAIN WILL BE FURTHER WEST IN THE FOOTHILLS /            
BLUE RIDGE WHERE UPSLOPE FLOW WILL ENHANCE LIFT.                                
SUNDAY NIGHT:                                                                   
SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW / WARM ADVECTION CONTINUES ON SUNDAY NIGHT             
AS THE GRADIENT ACROSS THE CAROLINAS REMAINS PINCHED BETWEEN STRONG             
HIGH PRESSURE WELL OFFSHORE THE MID-ATLANTIC AND STRONG LOW PRESSURE            
ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. WITH CONTINUED WARM ADVECTION...EXPECT            
MOSTLY CLOUDY TO OVERCAST SKIES ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA. CANNOT RULE             
OUT SOME DRIZZLE ACROSS THE SE COASTAL PLAIN...SANDHILLS...TRIANGLE             
AND WESTERN PIEDMONT WHERE THE BETTER SATURATION IS EXPECTED. FCST              
SOUNDINGS STILL SHOW RATHER SHALLOW MOISTURE WITH SATURATION NOT                
EVEN EXTENDING ABOVE THE 0C ISOTHERM...AND THIS IS THE REASON FOR               
KEEPING MEASURABLE POPS OUT OF THE FCST. DUE TO EXTENSIVE CLOUD                 
COVER AND CONTINUED WARM ADVECTION...EXPECT MUCH MORE MODERATE LOWS             
THAN SAT NIGHT...AND WILL TREND CLOSE TO MOS GUIDANCE SHOWING LOWS              
RANGING FROM 44-50F FROM NW TO SE.                                              
MONDAY:                                                                         
WARM ADVECTION CONTINUES ON MONDAY...ALTHOUGH LOW LEVEL FLOW BECOMES            
MORE SOUTHWESTERLY BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS AS A FRONT ASSOC/W LOW                
PRESSURE NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES CROSSES INTO THE TN/OH VALLEY AND             
APPROACHES THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS BY 00Z TUE. FCST SOUNDINGS SHOW            
A RATHER CONSIDERABLE MID-LEVEL CAP FOR ALMOST THE ENTIRE DAY                   
MONDAY...SO ALTHOUGH TEMPS/DEWPOINTS WILL BE UNSEASONABLY WARM BY               
THE AFTERNOON HOURS...DO NOT EXPECT ANY SUBSTANTIAL (HEAVY) SHOWER              
ACTIVITY GIVEN THAT THE EQUILIBRIUM LEVEL SHOULD BE ONLY 8-10 KFT               
AGL. WILL ADD A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS                
DURING PEAK HEATING. WILL KEEP POPS ONLY AT SLIGHT CHANCE GIVEN NO              
(OR VERY LITTLE) UPPER LEVEL HELP. HIGH TEMPS LOOK WAY ABOVE NORMAL             
WITH RATHER STRONG LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW...IN FACT...GFS/NAM FCST            
SOUNDINGS SHOW AROUND 30 KT FLOW AT 925 MB...AND 35-40 KT FLOW AT               
850 MB. WILL FCST HIGHS RANGING FROM THE MID 60S WEST TO THE LOWER              
70S EAST/SE. IF THERE ARE ENOUGH BREAKS IN CLOUD COVER TO ALLOW                 
MIXING EVEN IN THE LOWEST FEW KFT AGL IT COULD BE RATHER BREEZY MON             
AFTERNOON. FOR NOW...WILL SHOW 10-15 MPH SOUTHERLY WINDS WITH GUSTS             
UP TO 25 MPH.                                                                   
MONDAY NIGHT:                                                                   
THE WEAK FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MAKE IT INTO THE FOOTHILLS AND                    
POSSIBLY THE FAR WESTERN PIEDMONT MONDAY NIGHT BEFORE STALLING OUT.             
NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF LIFT ON MON NIGHT...VIRTUALLY NOTHING IN THE             
UPPER LEVELS...AND ONLY VERY WEAK LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE IN THE LOWER            
LEVELS IN VICINITY OF THE BOUNDARY. BOTH THE GFS/NAM TRY AND SHOW               
LIGHT QPF OVER THE ARE MON NIGHT IN ASSOC/W THE BOUNDARY...SO HAVE              
DECIDED TO LEAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE FCST FOR MONDAY              
NIGHT. DUE TO CONTINUED SOUTHERLY FLOW AND CLOUD COVER...WILL FCST              
MILD LOW TEMPS IN THE LOWER/MID 50S...WHICH IS THE AVERAGE HIGH FOR             
THIS TIME OF YEAR! THESE VALUES ARE CLOSE TO THE MEX MOS GUIDANCE               
NUMBERS. -VINCENT                                                               
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...                                          
AS OF 300 AM SATURDAY...                                                        
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH AND MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY...                
STALLING SOUTH OF THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT. WHILE THERE WILL BE A                 
CHANCE FOR RAIN... THE MOIST LAYER IS VERY SHALLOW... SO RAIN TOTALS            
SHOULD REMAIN RATHER LOW.                                                       
ANOTHER BOUNDARY APPROACHES THE AREA FROM THE NORTH WEDNESDAY AND               
LINGERS ALONG THE NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER THURSDAY... UNTIL A            
STORM SYSTEM OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. WORKS ITS WAY EAST/NORTHEAST                 
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING FROM THE              
FROM THE SOUTH ATLANTIC WEST ACROSS THE GULF COAST STATES WILL SLOW             
THE ADVANCEMENT OF THIS FRONT INTO NORTH CAROLINA UNTIL WELL INTO               
THE DAY FRIDAY. THUS POPS HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED FOR THE FRIDAY TIME                
PERIOD.                                                                         
HIGHS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WILL BE IN THE 60S... FALLING INTO THE              
50S THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL            
BE IN THE 40S... THEN RANGE FROM THE MID 30S NORTHWEST TO LOWER 40S             
SOUTHEAST THURSDAY NIGHT. -RHJ                                                  
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...                                   
AS OF 1225 PM SATURDAY...                                                       
HIGH PRESSURE AND VFR CONDITIONS ARE OBSERVED ACROSS CENTRAL NC.                
INCREASING UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE              
WEST WILL LEAD TO MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS THIS EVENING.                       
MEANWHILE...THE SURFACE HIGH MOVES TO THE NORTHEAST OFF AWAY FROM               
THE AREA...BUT RIDGING WILL CONTINUE TO EXTEND INTO THE AREA.                   
AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE...A GENTLE EAST TO SOUTHEASTERLY              
FLOW WILL DEVELOP THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS...PULLING MOISTURE                  
THROUGH THE SOUTHERN AND WESTERN PIEDMONT.  STRATUS WITH CEILINGS               
AROUND 2K FEET SHOULD DEVELOP AT GSO/INT BY THE END OF THE VALID TAF            
PERIOD.  FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THIS MOISTURE WILL NOT SPREAD               
VERY FAR EASTWARD UNTIL THE SURFACE RIDGE RETREATS FURTHER.                     
THUS...EXPECT FAY AND RDU TO BE ONLY THE EDGE OF THE MVFR CEILINGS.             
ADVERSE AVIATION CONDITIONS IN MVFR/IFR CEILINGS MAY PERSIST THROUGH            
TUESDAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES AND STALLS OUT JUST WEST OF THE              
AREA BY MON NIGHT. CANNOT RULE OUT ISOLD SHOWER ACTIVITY ON MONDAY.             
IN ADDITION... COULD SEE A PERIOD OF LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR THREAT                
LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...AS WINDS AT 2KT FEET APPROACH                   
35-40KT BASED ON CURRENT FORECAST SOUNDINGS.                                    
&&                                                                              
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
NONE.                                                                           
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SYNOPSIS...VINCENT                                                              
NEAR TERM...VINCENT/SMITH                                                       
SHORT TERM...VINCENT                                                            
LONG TERM...RHJ                                                                 
AVIATION...SMITH                                                                
</pre> nc                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC                                             
309 AM EST SAT DEC 13 2008                                                      
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA THIS MORNING...            
THEN SETTLE OVERHEAD THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT.                               
&&                                                                              
.NEAR TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/...                                               
AS OF 130 AM SATURDAY...                                                        
SFC ANALYSIS THIS MORNING SHOWED 1029 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER            
ALABAMA...WITH A SFC RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING NORTH INTO THE OH VALLEY.             
A SFC TROUGH AXIS WAS LOCATED ACROSS THE WESTERN CAROLINAS. ALOFT...            
WV IMAGERY AND RUC MODEL DATA SHOW A POTENT SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY                 
TRAVERSING THE AREA.                                                            
TODAY AND TONIGHT:                                                              
STRONG SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE POTENT SHORTWAVE CROSSING THE AREA                 
EARLY THIS MORNING WILL HELP SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILD EAST OVER THE              
CAROLINAS THIS AFTERNOON. THE ~1030 MB SFC HIGH IS EXPECTED TO BE               
CENTERED DIRECTLY OVER CENTRAL NC AT ROUGHLY 18Z...MOVING OFFSHORE              
THE MID-ATLANTIC BY 12Z SUNDAY. WITH SUBSIDENCE AT THE SFC AND                  
ALOFT...EXPECT SUNNY SKIES THROUGH EARLY/MID AFTERNOON. ABUNDANT                
SUNSHINE WILL NOT LAST TOO LONG...HOWEVER...AS UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE             
ASSOC/W A DEEPENING SFC LOW IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES STREAMS                   
EASTWARD TOWARD THE CAROLINAS VIA A 75-100 KT WESTERLY JET. FCST                
SOUNDINGS SHOW BROKEN TO OVERCAST MID/UPPER LEVEL CEILINGS ACROSS               
THE ENTIRE AREA BY ROUGHLY 00Z THIS EVENING. AS SUCH...WILL SHOW                
INCREASING CLOUD COVER FROM WEST TO EAST AFTER 18Z...WITH MOSTLY                
CLOUDY SKIES FROM SUNSET THROUGH AT LEAST MIDNIGHT. FCST SOUNDINGS              
HINT AT SOME CLEARING AFTER MIDNIGHT...AND WILL SHOW A DECREASE TO              
PARTLY CLOUDY FROM MIDNIGHT TO SUNRISE.                                         
FOR TEMPS...MOS GUIDANCE AGREES PRETTY WELL (ALBEIT A FEW DEGREES               
HIGHER) WITH THE 1000-850 MB THICKNESSES OFF THE GFS/NAM...AND WILL             
COMPROMISE BETWEEN MOS GUIDANCE AND THE THICKNESSES AND SHOW A RANGE            
FROM THE MID 40S IN THE NORTHEAST COASTAL PLAIN TO THE UPPER 40S TO             
AROUND 50F IN SOUTHERN AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA. IF                     
EXTENSIVE MID/UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS ARRIVE BY EARLY AFTERNOON IN THE               
WEST...THIS MAY BE TOO WARM IN THE WEST BY A DEGREE OR TWO. LOWS                
TONIGHT SOMEWHAT DIFFICULT WITH PERVASIVE MID/UPPER LEVEL CLOUD                 
COVER EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF THE NIGHT. LOWS               
WILL ENTIRELY DEPEND ON WHICH LOCATIONS HAVE THE OPPORTUNITY TO                 
RADIATE WELL FOR SEVERAL HOURS BEFORE SUNRISE. AT THIS TIME...WILL              
BLEND CLOSE TO WHAT MOS GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING...WITH A RANGE OF                
27-30F ACROSS THE AREA DUE TO THE COOL/DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE ASSOC/W             
THE SFC HIGH. -VINCENT                                                          
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...                                    
AS OF 300 AM SATURDAY...                                                        
SUNDAY:                                                                         
SFC HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES MOVING FURTHER OFFSHORE DURING THE DAY              
SUNDAY...ALLOWING A SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE                 
CAROLINAS. THIS WILL CAUSE WARM ADVECTION TO STRENGTHEN OVER THE                
AREA BY OR SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE...ALLOWING ENOUGH MOISTURE/LIFT FOR            
LOW STRATUS TO DEVELOP. WHILE GFS/NAM FCST SOUNDINGS AGREE THAT THE             
WESTERN PIEDMONT WILL BE COMPLETELY OVERCAST IN LOW STRATUS BY                  
15-18Z...THEY ARE MORE AMBIGUOUS TOWARD THE TRIANGLE AND NORTHEAST              
COASTAL PLAIN. WILL SHOW SKIES BECOMING MOSTLY CLOUDY TO OVERCAST IN            
THE FAR WESTERN PIEDMONT BY EARLY AFTERNOON WHERE AN UPSLOPE                    
COMPONENT IN THE LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL HELP PROVIDE ADDITIONAL LIFT IN            
VICINITY OF THE FOOTHILLS/MOUNTAINS...WITH INCREASING CLOUD COVER               
(PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY) ELSEWHERE THROUGH THE DAY IN ASSOC/W                  
PERSISTENT WARM ADVECTION. A SOMEWHAT DIFFICULT HIGH TEMP FORECAST              
THAT WILL ULTIMATELY DEPEND ON CLOUD COVER. 1000-850MB THICKNESSES              
START OUT AROUND 1310-1320M 12Z SUN...INCREASING TO 1340-1350M BY               
00Z. WITH FULL SUN...THESE THICKNESSES WOULD YIELD HIGHS IN THE                 
UPPER 50S TO NEAR 60F. WITH OVERCAST LOW CLOUD COVER...HOWEVER...               
HIGHS WOULD STRUGGLE TO MAKE IT OUT OF THE 40S. WILL TREND TOWARD               
MOS GUIDANCE...SHOWING A RANGE FROM AROUND 49-50F IN THE TRIAD TO               
THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60F IN THE SE COASTAL PLAIN. WOULD NOT BE               
SURPRISED TO SEE TEMPS BUST 3-5F...DEPENDING ON THE DEGREE OF CLOUD             
COVER ACROSS THE AREA. W/REGARD TO PRECIP CHANCES...BOTH THE GFS/NAM            
SHOW LIGHT QPF IN ASSOC/W WARM ADVECTION IN THE WESTERN PIEDMONT                
AND FOOTHILLS FROM NOON THROUGH SUNSET. HOWEVER...FCST SOUNDINGS                
SHOW RATHER SHALLOW MOISTURE WITH SATURATION NOT EVEN EXTENDING UP              
TO THE 0C ISOTHERM. IT WOULD BE TOUGH TO GET MEASURABLE PRECIP IN               
THE WESTERN PIEDMONT WITH THOSE TYPE OF THERMAL/MOISTURE PROFILES...            
AND HAVE DECIDED TO REMOVE MENTION OF A SLIGHT OR LOW CHANCE OF                 
MEASURABLE RAIN AND REPLACE IT WITH A CHANCE OF DRIZZLE IN THE FAR              
WESTERN PIEDMONT BEGINNING IN THE AFTERNOON. A BETTER CHANCE FOR A              
FEW HUNDREDTHS OF LIGHT RAIN WILL BE FURTHER WEST IN THE FOOTHILLS /            
BLUE RIDGE WHERE UPSLOPE FLOW WILL ENHANCE LIFT.                                
SUNDAY NIGHT:                                                                   
SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW / WARM ADVECTION CONTINUES ON SUNDAY NIGHT             
AS THE GRADIENT ACROSS THE CAROLINAS REMAINS PINCHED BETWEEN STRONG             
HIGH PRESSURE WELL OFFSHORE THE MID-ATLANTIC AND STRONG LOW PRESSURE            
ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. WITH CONTINUED WARM ADVECTION...EXPECT            
MOSTLY CLOUDY TO OVERCAST SKIES ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA. CANNOT RULE             
OUT SOME DRIZZLE ACROSS THE SE COASTAL PLAIN...SANDHILLS...TRIANGLE             
AND WESTERN PIEDMONT WHERE THE BETTER SATURATION IS EXPECTED. FCST              
SOUNDINGS STILL SHOW RATHER SHALLOW MOISTURE WITH SATURATION NOT                
EVEN EXTENDING ABOVE THE 0C ISOTHERM...AND THIS IS THE REASON FOR               
KEEPING MEASURABLE POPS OUT OF THE FCST. DUE TO EXTENSIVE CLOUD                 
COVER AND CONTINUED WARM ADVECTION...EXPECT MUCH MORE MODERATE LOWS             
THAN SAT NIGHT...AND WILL TREND CLOSE TO MOS GUIDANCE SHOWING LOWS              
RANGING FROM 44-50F FROM NW TO SE.                                              
MONDAY:                                                                         
WARM ADVECTION CONTINUES ON MONDAY...ALTHOUGH LOW LEVEL FLOW BECOMES            
MORE SOUTHWESTERLY BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS AS A FRONT ASSOC/W LOW                
PRESSURE NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES CROSSES INTO THE TN/OH VALLEY AND             
APPROACHES THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS BY 00Z TUE. FCST SOUNDINGS SHOW            
A RATHER CONSIDERABLE MID-LEVEL CAP FOR ALMOST THE ENTIRE DAY                   
MONDAY...SO ALTHOUGH TEMPS/DEWPOINTS WILL BE UNSEASONABLY WARM BY               
THE AFTERNOON HOURS...DO NOT EXPECT ANY SUBSTANTIAL (HEAVY) SHOWER              
ACTIVITY GIVEN THAT THE EQUILIBRIUM LEVEL SHOULD BE ONLY 8-10 KFT               
AGL. WILL ADD A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS                
DURING PEAK HEATING. WILL KEEP POPS ONLY AT SLIGHT CHANCE GIVEN NO              
(OR VERY LITTLE) UPPER LEVEL HELP. HIGH TEMPS LOOK WAY ABOVE NORMAL             
WITH RATHER STRONG LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW...IN FACT...GFS/NAM FCST            
SOUNDINGS SHOW AROUND 30 KT FLOW AT 925 MB...AND 35-40 KT FLOW AT               
850 MB. WILL FCST HIGHS RANGING FROM THE MID 60S WEST TO THE LOWER              
70S EAST/SE. IF THERE ARE ENOUGH BREAKS IN CLOUD COVER TO ALLOW                 
MIXING EVEN IN THE LOWEST FEW KFT AGL IT COULD BE RATHER BREEZY MON             
AFTERNOON. FOR NOW...WILL SHOW 10-15 MPH SOUTHERLY WINDS WITH GUSTS             
UP TO 25 MPH.                                                                   
MONDAY NIGHT:                                                                   
THE WEAK FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MAKE IT INTO THE FOOTHILLS AND                    
POSSIBLY THE FAR WESTERN PIEDMONT MONDAY NIGHT BEFORE STALLING OUT.             
NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF LIFT ON MON NIGHT...VIRTUALLY NOTHING IN THE             
UPPER LEVELS...AND ONLY VERY WEAK LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE IN THE LOWER            
LEVELS IN VICINITY OF THE BOUNDARY. BOTH THE GFS/NAM TRY AND SHOW               
LIGHT QPF OVER THE ARE MON NIGHT IN ASSOC/W THE BOUNDARY...SO HAVE              
DECIDED TO LEAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE FCST FOR MONDAY              
NIGHT. DUE TO CONTINUED SOUTHERLY FLOW AND CLOUD COVER...WILL FCST              
MILD LOW TEMPS IN THE LOWER/MID 50S...WHICH IS THE AVERAGE HIGH FOR             
THIS TIME OF YEAR! THESE VALUES ARE CLOSE TO THE MEX MOS GUIDANCE               
NUMBERS. -VINCENT                                                               
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...                                          
AS OF 300 AM SATURDAY...                                                        
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH AND MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY...                
STALLING SOUTH OF THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT. WHILE THERE WILL BE A                 
CHANCE FOR RAIN... THE MOIST LAYER IS VERY SHALLOW... SO RAIN TOTALS            
SHOULD REMAIN RATHER LOW.                                                       
ANOTHER BOUNDARY APPROACHES THE AREA FROM THE NORTH WEDNESDAY AND               
LINGERS ALONG THE NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER THURSDAY... UNTIL A            
STORM SYSTEM OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. WORKS ITS WAY EAST/NORTHEAST                 
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING FROM THE              
FROM THE SOUTH ATLANTIC WEST ACROSS THE GULF COAST STATES WILL SLOW             
THE ADVANCEMENT OF THIS FRONT INTO NORTH CAROLINA UNTIL WELL INTO               
THE DAY FRIDAY. THUS POPS HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED FOR THE FRIDAY TIME                
PERIOD.                                                                         
HIGHS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WILL BE IN THE 60S... FALLING INTO THE              
50S THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL            
BE IN THE 40S... THEN RANGE FROM THE MID 30S NORTHWEST TO LOWER 40S             
SOUTHEAST THURSDAY NIGHT. -RHJ                                                  
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...                                   
AS OF 1230 AM SATURDAY...                                                       
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL EXIT THE AREA BY 06-09Z THIS                    
MORNING...WHILE HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST            
DURING THE DAY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR VFR CONDITIONS IN CLEAR OR                  
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THROUGH THE ENTIRE TAF PERIOD. ALTHOUGH BKN VFR              
CEILINGS ARE CURRENTLY (AS OF 05Z) LOCATED JUST TO THE WEST OF THE              
TRIAD IN THE NC FOOTHILLS/ MOUNTAINS...DO NOT EXPECT THIS CLOUD                 
COVER TO AFFECT THE KINT/KGSO TAF SITES. EVEN IF IT DID...IT WOULD              
BE FOR JUST A FEW HOURS THIS MORNING...AND CEILINGS WOULD BE VFR IN             
THE 4-5 KFT RANGE. ALTHOUGH WINDS HAVE BECOME LIGHT/VARIABLE OR                 
LIGHT FROM THE NORTHWEST AT KINT/KGSO/KRDU...ENOUGH OF A GRADIENT               
EXISTS TO ALLOW SOME GUSTINESS AT KFAY/KRWI TAF SITES THROUGH                   
ROUGHLY 07-09Z...AFTER WHICH THOSE TAF SITES SHOULD BECOME                      
LIGHT/VARIABLE OR OUT OF THE NORTHWEST AT ~5 KNOTS. WINDS WILL                  
BECOME LIGHT/VARIABLE EVERYWHERE BY 18-21Z THIS AFTERNOON AS HIGH               
PRESSURE BECOMES CENTERED OVERHEAD.                                             
LOOKING BEYOND THIS EVENING...MVFR OR IFR CIGS WITH STRATUS ARE                 
POSSIBLE BY SUNDAY MORNING AS THE HIGH PRESSURE AREA SHIFTS OFFSHORE            
AND RETURN FLOW FROM THE SOUTHEAST ENSUES. THESE LOW CLOUDS ARE                 
LIKELY TO DEVELOP BEFORE DAWN AT FAY AND SPREAD OVER THE REST OF                
CENTRAL NC BY EARLY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THESE ADVERSE CONDITIONS MAY              
PERSIST THROUGH TUESDAY...AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES NC BUT THEN                
STALLS JUST TO OUR NORTHWEST INTO MIDWEEK. WE WILL ALSO SEE RAIN                
CHANCES FROM LATE SUNDAY LASTING INTO WEDNESDAY...PARTICULARLY AT               
INT/GSO...CLOSER TO THE STALLED FRONT. -VINCENT                                 
&&                                                                              
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
NONE.                                                                           
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SYNOPSIS...VINCENT                                                              
NEAR TERM...VINCENT                                                             
SHORT TERM...VINCENT                                                            
LONG TERM...RHJ                                                                 
AVIATION...VINCENT                                                              
</pre> nc                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC                                          
655 AM EST FRI DEC 12 2008                                                      
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER WILL RETURN TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS              
IN FROM THE WEST. THE CENTER OF THE HIGH WILL SHIFT EAST MOVING                 
ACROSS THE CAROLINAS THIS WEEKEND...AND WILL THEN LINGERING OFF THE             
MID-ATLANTIC COAST THROUGH TUESDAY WITH TEMPERATURES REBOUNDING TO              
ABOVE NORMAL. THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL AFFECT THE AREA WEDNESDAY                
INTO THURSDAY.                                                                  
&&                                                                              
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...                                                 
AS OF 4 AM FRIDAY...UPPER MEAN FLOW HAS CAUGHT THE CLOSED LOW IN THE            
NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO AND HAS OPENED IT UP...AND ALREADY HAS                  
ABSORBED A GOOD PART OF IT WITHIN THE MEAN FLOW. THIS IS ILLUSTRATED            
WELL USING THE LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY TOPPED OVER WITH THE                  
LATEST 12 HR RUC MODEL DATA. THE SFC LOW WAS LOCATED OVER NJ AND THE            
OPENED 5H S/W (REMNANT CLOSED LOW) WAS EXITTING THE TARHEEL STATE TO            
THE NE AT THE MOMENT. ALL MAJOR PCPN FOR THE ILM CWA IS OVERWITH.               
COULD OBSERVE SOME RESIDUAL LIGHT SHRA FROM ANY FORCING AND DYNAMICS            
FROM THE EXITING MAIN 5H S/W...HOWEVER WILL ONLY CARRY A 20-30 POP              
AT MOST THRU 6 AM AS NVA BECOMES MORE DOMINANT AND DEEP MOISTURE NO             
LONGER AVAILABLE.                                                               
THE MAIN NEAR TERM DILEMMAS TO THE ILM CWA WILL BE THE PASSAGE OF A             
SECONDARY COLD FRONT AND/OR TROF OF LOW PRESSURE LATER THIS MORNING             
OR MIDDAY TODAY. INITIALLY MOISTURE WILL BE TRAPPED BELOW ROUGHLY               
900MB KEEPING LOW CLOUDINESS PREVAILING THIS MORNING PRIOR TO THE               
2NDRY PASSAGE. THIS ILLUSTRATED VIA MODEL SOUNDINGS OR MODEL TIME               
HEIGHT SECTIONS. ONCE THAT 2NDRY FRONTAL PASSAGE...WINDS AT THE                 
LOWER LEVELS TO BECOME NW AND WILL AID IN SCOURING OUT THIS LOW                 
LEVEL CLOUDINESS. AS A RESULT...EXPECT PTLY/MSTLY CLDY SKIES TO                 
BECOME MSTLY SUNNY THIS AFTERNOON. THE SFC PG WILL REMAIN                       
TIGHTENED...AND COMBINED THAT WITH COLD AIR ADVECTION ESPECIALLY                
MIDDAY AND THIS AFTERNOON...NW WINDS COULD GUST A BIT HIER THEN WHAT            
GUIDANCE IS DICTATING AT THIS TIME. FOR TONIGHT...THE LONGWAVE UPPER            
TROF AMPLIFIES ACROSS THE AREA AND ALLOWS FOR TEMPS THRU THE ATM                
COLUMN TO DROP TO NEAR OR BELOW NORMALS...AFTER HAVING BEEN WELL                
ABOVE THE PAST FEW DAYS. A WEAK S/W TROF TO PASS NORTH OF THE ILM               
CWA OVERNIGHT...WITH ASSOCIATED CLOUDINESS REMAINING JUST NORTH OF              
THE ILM CWA.                                                                    
AS FOR MAX/MIN TEMPS WILL STAY CLOSE TO GUIDANCE...BUT ERR ON THE               
SLITELY MILDER SIDE FOR TONIGHTS LOWS DUE TO A BOUNDARY LAYER THAT              
SHOULD REMAIN ACTIVE ENOUGH TO PREVENT A DECOUPLING OF THE OVERNIGHT            
WINDS.                                                                          
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...                                  
AS OF 3 AM FRIDAY...GRADIENT FLOW WILL WEAKEN INITIALLY AS CENTER               
OF HIGH SHIFTS EAST AND MOVES OVERHEAD THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING.                  
MAX CAA SHUTS OFF SAT MORNING AS HEIGHTS START RISING THROUGH THE               
REST OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD PCP WATER VALUES WILL BE DOWN TO                  
LESS THAN A QUARTER OF AN INCH SAT MORNING. OVERALL EXPECT DRY                  
AND COLD WEATHER THROUGH MOST OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. WINDS WILL              
SHIFT FROM N TO NE AND WILL BECOME ON SHORE THROUGH SUNDAY AS HIGH              
PRESSURE SHIFTS OFF SHORE AND STRENGTHENS. WITH AN INCREASING ON                
SHORE FLOW THROUGH SUNDAY MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE. FOR NOW              
WILL KEEP FORECAST DRY...BUT COULD SEE SOME PERIODS OF CLOUDS                   
HEADING INTO SUNDAY.                                                            
TEMPS WILL START OUT BELOW CLIMO WITH PLENTY OF COLD AIR IN PLACE               
THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEKEND. EXPECT TEMPS TO MAKE IT ONLY UP TO                 
NEAR 50 SAT AFTERNOON AND BACK DOWN NEAR FREEZING BY SUN MORNING. LOW           
LEVEL THICKNESSES REBOUND THROUGH SUNDAY UP TO AROUND 1340.                     
EXPECTING TEMPS TO REBOUND AS WELL UP TO NEAR 60 BY SUNDAY                      
AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE A STEADY RISE HEADING INTO THE LONG TERM                 
PERIOD.                                                                         
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...                                         
AS OF 3 AM FRIDAY...INCREASING RETURN FLOW SETS UP THROUGH MID                  
WEEK AS CENTER OF HIGH CONTINUES TO SHIFT OFF SHORE AND STRENGTHEN              
WHILE A COLD FRONT MOVES EASTWARD. BY TUES NIGHT A COLD FRONT                   
SHOULD MAKE IT AS FAR EAST AS THE WESTERN CAROLINAS...BUT THE FLOW              
AT MID LEVELS WILL REMAIN MORE PARALLEL TO THIS BOUNDARY                        
ELIMINATING ANY STRONG PUSH TO MOVE IT THROUGH. THEREFORE NOT                   
EXPECTING FRONT TO MAKE IT ACROSS AREA BY WED. INSTEAD HIGH                     
PRESSURE WILL REPOSITION ITSELF OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST WITH                    
SOUTHERLY WINDS PERSISTING OVER THE COASTAL CAROLINAS. BY THURS                 
THE FRONT MAY LAY ITSELF ACROSS AREA FROM THE NORTH. THE VICINITY               
OF COLD FRONT AND MOIST RETURN FLOW COULD END UP PRODUCING MORE IN              
THE WAY OF CLOUDS AND WEATHER...BUT FOR NOW PLAYED IT MORE ON THE               
CONSERVATIVE SIDE.                                                              
TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO MODERATE ON MONDAY AND THERE WILL BE AN                  
OVERALL WARMING TREND THROUGH MID WEEK AS HEIGHTS RISE AND WARMER               
RETURN FLOW SETS UP. TEMPS SHOULD REACH WELL INTO THE 60S DURING                
THE DAY WITH 40S AT NIGHT. IF COLD FRONT MAKES IT THROUGH AREA ON               
THURSDAY TEMPS MAY DROP BACK DOWN NEAR CLIMO.                                   
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...                                       
MVFR TO POSSIBLY IFR CONDITIONS ACROSS ALL TERMINALS EXPECTED FROM              
1.5K FOOT TO 2.0K FOOT CEILINGS FOR THE 1ST 4 HRS...LASTING UP TO               
16Z. THIS DUE TO TRAPPED MOISTURE BELOW 900MB. A S/W TROF IN THE                
LOWER LEVELS...WILL LIKELY DISPERSE THIS MOISTURE UNDER NW WINDS BY             
MIDDAY. WITH THE REMAINDER OF THE ATM PROFILE RATHER BONE                       
DRY...EXPECT NO ADDITIONAL CEILINGS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE 12Z TAF            
ISSUANCE PERIOD. NO RESTRICTIONS TO VISIBILITIES ARE EXPECTED. ONLY             
PROBLEM CHILD FOR ALL AREA TERMINALS WILL BE THE GUSTY WINDS. THIS              
MORNING 250-270 DEGREE 15G25KT WINDS WILL VEER TO AROUND 310 DEGREES            
AT 15G25KT THRU DAYLIGHT IN RESPONSE TO THE PASSAGE OF A 2NDARY COLD            
FRONT/SFC TROF OF LOW PRESSURE. PLENTY OF ATM MIXING DUE TO COLD AIR            
ADVECTION WILL KEEP WINDS ON THE GUSTY SIDE. BY SUNSET...SFC WINDS              
TO DROP BELOW 10 KT WITH THE GUSTINESS CEASING FOR THE REMINDER OF              
THE NIGHT.                                                                      
OUTLOOK THROUGH MONDAY...VFR THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH                     
PRESSURE FIRMLY IN CONTROL OF OUR WEATHER. BY EARLY NEXT WEEK THE               
HIGH SLIDES OFF THE COAST AND A FEW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE                 
RETURN FLOW. IN ADDITION POSSIBLE LIGHT FOG MONDAY MORNING DUE TO               
THE FETCH OFF THE OCEAN.                                                        
&&                                                                              
.MARINE...                                                                      
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...                                                  
AS OF 3 AM FRIDAY...STRONG SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED THRU THIS                    
EVENING. HAVE TWEAKED AND EXTENDED THE SCA BY SEVERAL HRS ACROSS ALL            
ZONES...MAINLY DUE TO A SLOWER RETREAT OF THE SEAS. WITH A SE-S WIND            
AND RESULTING FETCH THE PAST FEW DAYS TO BUILD AND AFFECT THE AREA              
WATERS...HAVE NOTICED A FEW TIMES THAT WW3 SOMETIMES WILL BE TOO                
QUICK TO SUBSIDE SEAS GIVEN THIS SCENARIO. GIVEN THIS SAME SCENARIO             
BUT WITH A SW WIND FETCH PRIOR TO THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE...I AM               
MORE INCLINED TO LOWER THE SEAS QUICKLY AFTER THE CFP AS WW3 DOES SO            
VERY WELL. WITH THE 1ST FRONTAL PASSAGE HAVING VEERED WINDS TO THE              
WSW...THE TASK ALREADY HAS BEGUN CUTTING DOWN THE SEAS. THIS MAY                
EVEN TEMPORARILY SLOW THE SEAS FROM SUBSIDING ESPECIALLY ACROSS                 
AMZ252 WHERE A WESTERLY WIND CAN BE MAXIMIZED AND ALTHOUGH NOT AID              
IN BUILDING HIER SEAS AGAINST THE CURRENT SSE 9 SECOND SWELL...A                
WASH MACHINE TYPE SEAS WILL BE TEMPORARILY REALIZED. IN                         
ESSENCE...SCA CRITERIA WILL LIKELY REMAIN NEEDED WITH BOTH SEAS AND             
LIKELY WINDS REMAINING AT OR ABOVE SCA THRESHOLDS.                              
AS FOR THE NEXT FRONTAL PASSAGE OR TROUGH OF LOW PASSAGE                        
OCCURS...WINDS TO FURTHER VEER TO THE NW AT 15-25 KT...AND CONTINUE             
TO CUT DOWN THE SEAS BY EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON TODAY. THIS TRUE                 
OFFSHORE WIND FOR ALL COASTAL WATER ZONES...WILL FINALLY BE CUTTING             
DOWN SEAS BUT STILL AM SUSPECT THAT ALL SEAS WILL BE LOWER THAN SCA             
CRITERIA PRIOR TO SUNSET TODAY. WINDS WILL FURTHER LIGHTEN AND                  
SLIGHTLY VEER BY 20-30 DEGREES AS THE SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES             
AND THE SFC PRESSURE PATTERN BECOMES MORE CONDUCIVE FOR A NNW-N WIND            
DIRECTION BY SATURDAY MORNING. EXPECT ALL ADVISORY CRITERIA LOWERED             
BY SUNRISE SATURDAY.                                                            
SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...                                   
AS OF 3 AM FRIDAY...SEAS WILL CONTINUE ON A DECREASING TREND THROUGH            
SATURDAY IN A WEAKENING NORTHERLY FLOW. OVERALL SEAS WILL BE IN THE             
2 TO 4 FT RANGE. BY SUNDAY CENTER OF HIGH MOVES OVER THE EASTERN                
SEA BOARD AND SHIFTS OFF SHORE THROUGH THE DAY STRENGTHENING                    
BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. THEREFORE WINDS WILL VEER AROUND TO E                 
AND THEN SE BY SUNDAY NIGHT INCREASING TO AROUND 15 KTS. THESE                  
INCREASING ON SHORE WINDS WILL PUSH SEAS UP TO 3 TO 5 FT BY SUNDAY              
NIGHT AND COULD BE INTO SCA CRITERIA IN THE OUTHER WATERS BY THE                
END OF THE PERIOD.                                                              
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...                                           
AS OF 3 AM FRIDAY...WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY VEER AROUND                
TO THE SOUTH THROUGH MONDAY IN A TIGHTENED GRADIENT FLOW BETWEEN                
STRENGTHENING ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE AND A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM                  
OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES. THIS PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY FLOW                   
AROUND 15 KTS THROUGH MONDAY WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SEAS UP TO 4 TO              
6 FT. GRADIENT FLOW MAXIMIZES MONDAY NIGHT WITH THE LATEST                      
GUIDANCE SHOWING SEAS IN THE 4 TO 7 FT RANGE OVERNIGHT. BY TUESDAY              
GRADIENT FLOW WEAKENS AS HIGH PRESSURE WEAKENS AND REPOSITIONS                  
ITSELF OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST AS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LIFTS OFF TO              
THE NE THROUGH CANADA. SEAS WILL THEN GRADUALLY DECREASE THROUGH                
THE DAY ON TUESDAY.                                                             
&&                                                                              
.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
SC...NONE.                                                                      
NC...NONE.                                                                      
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM EST THIS MORNING FOR                   
     AMZ254-256.                                                                
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR AMZ250-             
     252.                                                                       
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SYNOPSIS...GROSS-ZOUZIAS                                                        
NEAR TERM...HOEHLER                                                             
SHORT TERM...GROSS-ZOUZIAS                                                      
LONG TERM...GROSS-ZOUZIAS                                                       
AVIATION...HOEHLER                                                              
</pre> nc                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC                                             
310 AM EST FRI DEC 12 2008                                                      
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE RAPIDLY AWAY TO              
THE NORTHEAST THIS MORNING. BEHIND THE LOW...MUCH DRIER AND COLDER              
AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION BY LATE MORNING TO EARLY AFTERNOON.               
&&                                                                              
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...                                                 
AS OF 200 AM FRIDAY...                                                          
05Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWED SFC LOW PRESSURE CENTERED OVER CENTRAL NC               
AND SOUTHERN VA. A WARM FRONT WAS LOCATED ALONG THE NC/VA                       
BORDER...EXTENDING NORTHEAST THROUGH SOUTHEAST VA INTO THE DELMARVA.            
A COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE AREA WAS LOCATED ROUGHLY FROM HICKORY              
NC SOUTHEAST TO FLORENCE SC. A SFC TROUGH AXIS EXTENDED FROM HICKORY            
NC SOUTHWEST THROUGH UPSTATE SC INTO CENTRAL GA. ALOFT...AS OF                  
05Z...WV IMAGERY AND RUC MODEL DATA SHOWED THE STRONG UPPER LOW                 
CENTERED OVER UPSTATE SC.                                                       
THROUGH THIS MORNING:                                                           
A FAIRLY LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS ASSOC/W THE APPROACHING UPPER LOW                
WILL MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS CENTRAL NC THROUGH SUNRISE THIS MORNING.             
THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE PRIMARILY IN THE FORM OF LIGHT TO               
MODERATE SHOWERS...ALTHOUGH SCT HEAVY SHOWERS AND AN ISOLD                      
THUNDERSTORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT AS MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES STEEPEN               
AND DYNAMIC FORCING STRENGTHENS IN ASSOC/W THE APPROACHING UPPER                
LOW. AS THE SFC AND UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVE NORTHEAST THROUGH CENTRAL              
NC...THE SFC COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN TO SURGE EASTWARD...AND COLD                 
ADVECTION WILL COMMENCE IN EARNEST AFTER 09Z. EXPECT TEMPS TO FALL              
INTO THE MID 40S IN THE WESTERN HALF OF THE AREA BY 12Z...WITH THE              
EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA FALLING INTO THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S BY             
12-15Z. ONCE COLD ADVECTION COMMENCES AND TEMPS/DEWPOINTS BEGIN TO              
FALL BEHIND THE FRONT...WINDS WILL PICK UP OUT OF THE NORTHWEST AT              
10 TO 20 MPH...WITH GUSTS AS HIGH AS 30 MPH. THE BREEZIEST                      
CONDITIONS TODAY SHOULD OCCUR BEFORE NOON...WHEN THE PRESSURE                   
GRADIENT BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW WILL BE THE TIGHTEST.                         
THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING:                                                         
THERE WILL BE A PERIOD OF STRONG SUBSIDENCE ALOFT FROM MID MORNING              
THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON BEHIND THE DEPARTING UPPER LOW...HOWEVER...             
AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE IS EXPECTED TO AMPLIFY AND DIG SOUTHEAST               
THROUGH THE TN/OH VALLEYS THIS MORNING...CROSSING EAST/ESE OVER                 
CENTRAL NC (WITH A 30-35/S VORTMAX) LATER THIS AFT AND EVE. FCST                
SOUNDINGS SHOW NO SATURATION WHAT-SO-EVER IN ASSOC/W THE SHORTWAVE              
PASSAGE THIS EVENING...AND WITH ONGOING (ALBEIT WEAKENING) COLD                 
ADVECTION / NORTHWEST FLOW IN THE LOWER LEVELS...THINK IT WOULD BE              
TOUGH TO GET MUCH CLOUD COVER (OTHER THAN FEW/SCT DIURNAL CU) IN                
ASSOC/W THE PASSAGE OF THE SHORTWAVE DUE TO THE PRESENCE OF A PRETTY            
DRY LOW LEVEL AIRMASS AND SOME CANCELLATION OF THE QG FORCING                   
ASSOC/W THE SHORTWAVE. TEMPS SHOULD STRUGGLE TO RISE MUCH THIS                  
AFTERNOON WITH COLD ADVECTION ONGOING...AND WILL FCST HIGHS RANGING             
FROM THE UPPER 40S IN THE WEST/NW PIEDMONT TO THE LOWER/MID 50S IN              
THE EAST.                                                                       
TONIGHT:                                                                        
THE AMPLIFIED SHORTWAVE WILL PASS EAST OF THE AREA BY 06Z TONIGHT...            
WITH PRONOUNCED SUBSIDENCE ALOFT AND SFC HIGH PRESSURE MOVING INTO              
THE AREA FROM THE WEST BY OR SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE SAT MORNING.                 
THEREFORE...EXPECT A TREND OF CLEARING SKIES TONIGHT (ALTHOUGH THERE            
SHOULD`T BE TOO MUCH CLOUD COVER TO BEGIN WITH)...WITH WINDS                    
BECOMING LIGHT/VARIABLE OR NORTHERLY AT 3-5 KT BY SUNRISE. WILL BASE            
LOW TEMPS CLOSE TO MOS GUIDANCE...RANGING FROM THE MID 20S IN THE               
WEST (WHERE LIGHT/VARIABLE WIND OR CALM CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY BY                
09-12Z) TO THE LOWER 30S IN THE SOUTHEAST. -VINCENT                             
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...                                
AS OF 230 AM FRIDAY...                                                          
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVER THE AREA SATURDAY AFTERNOON. ABUNDANT            
SUNSHINE WILL ALLOW HIGHS TO REACH INTO THE 40S WITH SOME LOWER 50S             
ACROSS THE SOUTH AND EAST. DEPENDING ON YOUR MODEL CHOICE... THERE              
COULD BE SOME HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS MOVE ACROSS THE REGION AS INDICATED             
BY THE GFS... WHILE THE NAM IS DRY. WILL BANK ON THE DRIER MODEL...             
WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR RADIATION... UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT            
WINDS. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM 25 TO 32.                                           
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...                                         
AS OF 300 AM FRIDAY...                                                          
THE HIGH PRESSURE AREA MOVES NORTHEAST OFF THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD...             
WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTHEAST INCREASING MOISTURE OVER THE AREA.            
THERE IS ALSO SOME DISAGREEMENT IN THE AMOUNT OF LOW LEVEL                      
CLOUDINESS... THE GFS BEING THE WETTER OF THE MODELS. THERE IS ALSO             
SOME INDICATION THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE OVER THE             
WEST DUE TO THE UPSLOPE FLOW LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY... HOWEVER WILL            
HOLD OFF AT THE PRESENT TIME. HIGHS SUNDAY WILL BE IN THE 50S                   
...WARMING INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S MONDAY.                              
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA FROM THE WEST LATE MONDAY INTO              
TUESDAY INCREASING THE CHANCE FOR RAIN. THE FRONT WILL LINGER SOUTH             
OF THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT... BEFORE BEING PUSHED BACK NORTH AS A                
WARM FRONT WEDNESDAY. THE FRONT WILL FINALLY PUSH SOUTH THROUGH THE             
REGION THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES RIDGES SOUTH              
THROUGH THE NORTHEAST CONUS. THE TIMING OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL               
DEPEND ON THE STRENGTH AND MOVEMENT OF THESE SYSTEM... SO POPS WILL             
BE KEPT LOW AT THE PRESENT TIME.                                                
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...                                       
AS OF 200 AM THURSDAY...                                                        
PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR CEILINGS AND VISBYS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH            
12Z THIS MORNING IN PRECIPITATION ASSOC/W THE POTENT UPPER LOW                  
MOVING NORTHEAST ACROSS CENTRAL NC. CEILINGS/VISBYS WILL BEGIN TO               
IMPROVE BY OR SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE FROM WEST TO EAST IN ASSOC/W LOW            
LEVEL COLD ADVECTION AND SUBSIDENCE ALOFT BEHIND THE DEPARTING UPPER            
LOW. THIS MEANS THAT FAY/RWI SHOULD BE THE LAST TAF SITES TO IMPROVE            
THIS MORNING. VFR CONDITIONS WILL RULE FROM MID MORNING THROUGH THE             
END OF THE TAF PERIOD. NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL BECOME SUSTAINED AT             
10-20 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH ONCE COLD ADVECTION BEGINS THIS               
MORNING (AFTER 09Z AT KINT/KGSO...AFTER 12Z AT KFAY/KRDU/KRWI).                 
NORTHWEST WINDS SHOULD DECREASE TO AROUND 10 KT BY LATE                         
AFTERNOON...BECOMING LIGHT VARIABLE OR LIGHT NORTHERLY TONIGHT AS               
SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TOWARD THE AREA FROM THE WEST.                         
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED SATURDAY.                  
HOWEVER...AS THE HIGH MOVES OFF TO THE NORTHEAST AND WARM AIR                   
ADVECTION BEGINS AGAIN...PERIODS OF LOW CLOUDS...ESPECIALLY LATE                
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING...AND AGAIN MONDAY NIGHT INTO                  
TUESDAY MORNING...COULD OCCUR. ANY PRECIPITATION...MOSTLY IN THE                
FORM OF DRIZZLE WITH THE BETTER CHANCE IN THE WEST...IS EXPECTED TO             
BE VERY LIGHT. -VINCENT                                                         
&&                                                                              
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
NONE.                                                                           
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SYNOPSIS...VINCENT                                                              
NEAR TERM...VINCENT                                                             
SHORT TERM...RHJ                                                                
LONG TERM...RHJ                                                                 
AVIATION...VINCENT                                                              
</pre> nc                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND                                         
830 PM CST SAT DEC 13 2008                                                      
SHORT TERM...CHALLENGES FOR UPDATE INVOLVE ONGOING HEADLINES AND                
TEMPERATURES. SO FAR EARLY IN THE EVENT NO BIG SURPRISES. SNOW AREA             
CONTINUES TO ORGANIZE ACROSS SOUTHERN HALF OF FA IN AREA OF BEST                
850MB WARM ADVECTION AND ISENTROPIC LIFT FROM 290K SURFACE.                     
CURRENTLY ENHANCED SNOW BAND ROUGHLY ALONG I94/HIGHWAY 10 CORRIDOR              
FROM CENTRAL DAKOTAS TO DTL. SURFACE LOW TO ONLY MOVE SLOWLY EAST               
OVERNIGHT ACROSS NEBRASKA AND WITH NO SIGNIFICANT TIGHTENING OF                 
SURFACE GRADIENT WINDS TO CONTINUE IN THE 20 TO 35 MPH RANGE. AS                
SNOW GRADUALLY INCREASING IN COVERAGE/INTENSITY VISIBILITIES                    
BEGINNING TO DROP WITH SOME LOCAL LAW ENFORCEMENT ADVISING NO TRAVEL            
DUE TO ZERO VSBY. OVER FAR SE FA PRETTY QUIET AS YET HOWEVER KABR               
RADAR INDICATING ENHANCED BAND OF SNOW LIFTING NE AND RUC CONTINUES             
IN AGREEMENT OF LIFTING ENHANCED BAND OF SNOW THROUGH SE THIRD OF FA            
THROUGH SUNDAY. AS A RESULT FEEL CURRENT HEADLINES IN GOOD SHAPE AND            
WILL KEEP TIMING AND BLIZZARD/WINTER STORM COVERAGE GOING FOR NOW.              
TEMPERATURES BEHIND BAROCLINIC RIBBON DROPPING OFF A LITTLE QUICKER             
THAN CURRENT TRENDS INDICATE BUT LOOKING UPSTREAM MINIMUMS SHOULD               
NOT BE TOO FAR OFF. WILL ONLY BE MAKING MINOR TWEAKS TO CURRENT                 
FORECAST.                                                                       
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR CIGS TO REMAIN ACROSS FA OVERNIGHT              
AND EXPECT VSBYS TO CONTINUE TO LOWER AS SNOW BECOMES MORE ORGANIZED            
OVERNIGHT. COMBINED WITH WIND SHOULD BE CONSISTENTLY BLO 1 MILE LATE            
TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY.                                                            
&&                                                                              
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
ND...BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 6 AM CST MONDAY FOR NDZ024-026>030-038-             
     039-049-052.                                                               
     BLIZZARD WARNING FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM CST MONDAY FOR             
     NDZ053.                                                                    
     BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 6 AM CST MONDAY FOR NDZ006>008-014>016-             
     054.                                                                       
MN...BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 6 AM CST MONDAY FOR MNZ001>003-005-007-             
     008-013>015-022.                                                           
     BLIZZARD WARNING FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM CST MONDAY FOR             
     MNZ027-029-030-040.                                                        
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 AM CST MONDAY FOR MNZ006-009-016-             
     017-023-024-028.                                                           
     BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 6 AM CST MONDAY FOR MNZ004.                         
     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6 AM CST MONDAY              
     FOR MNZ031-032.                                                            
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
VOELKER                                                                         
</pre> nd                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND                                         
1033 AM CST SAT DEC 13 2008                                                     
.DISCUSSION...SYSTEM IS UNFOLDING PRETTY MUCH AS EXPECTED SO FAR.               
RADAR IMAGERY IS INDICATING -SN ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL/NW ND WITH                 
RETURNS BEGINNING TO FILL IN TO THE SOUTH. AS SYSTEM CONTINUES TO               
EVOLVE WOULD EXPECT ISENTROPIC LIFT TO STRENGTHEN AND GRADUALLY                 
MOVE INTO THIS FA. CURRENT FORECAST HANDLES THIS WELL. LOW-LEVEL                
(925MB) COLD AIR ADVECTION IS A BIT STRONGER AS SFC TEMPS ACROSS                
THE NW FA CONTINUE TO FALL. 12Z RUC/NAM/GFS ALL SHOW 925MB COLD AIR             
ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY. ADJUSTED HOURLY TEMPS                  
(STEADY OR FALLING) TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS.                                        
MAIN CONCERN WILL BE ONSET OF BLIZZARD CONDITIONS. WITH DECENT                  
LOW-LEVEL COLD AIR ADVECTION WINDS MAY INCREASE A BIT QUICKER THAN              
ORIGINALLY THOUGHT. MUCH WILL DEPEND UPON FALLING SNOW INTENSITY.               
STILL A BIT OF DRY AIR TO OVERCOME...AND THINK 00Z START TIME FOR               
MUCH OF THE BLIZZARD AREA STILL REASONABLE (CONSIDERING EXPECTED                
SNOW INTENSITY AND WIND SPEEDS). WILL KEEP AN EYE ON WIND SPEEDS                
AND SNOW INTENSITY...BUT DO NOT FORESEE NEEDING TO BEGIN BLIZZARD               
ANY EARLIER.                                                                    
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...WINDS WILL TURN NORTH AND NORTHEAST AND INCREASE TO                 
15 TO 25 MPH TODAY AND TO 20 TO 35 MPH TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. PATCHY               
LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WILL GIVE WAY TO MOSTLY MVFR CIGS TODAY. THEN                
INCREASINGLY LOWER VISIBILITIES IN SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW TONIGHT                
INTO SUNDAY CAUSING IFR CONDITIONS.                                             
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 430 AM CST SAT DEC 13 2008/                         
SHORT TERM...                                                                   
TOUGH FCST THIS MORNING...MODELS REMAIN IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT                 
BUT CONTINUE TO HAVE SLIGHT BUT IMPORTANT DIFFERENCES IN SNOW                   
AREA. GFS IS A BIT FARTHER SOUTH AND EAST WITH SFC LOW MORE OVER                
NEBRASKA INTO WESTERN IOWA THEN TO NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN....NAM               
A BIT FARTHER NORTH MORE FROM SIOUX FALLS-BROOKINGS TO NORTHWEST                
WISCONSIN AND THIS IS SIMILAR TO CANADIAN. SOME WRF AND MM5 MODELS              
ON THE WEB VIA UNIVERSITY OF WISCONSIN AND WFO DETROIT INDICATE                 
SFC LOW FARTHER NORTH FROM WATERTOWN TO INTERNATIONAL FALLS. THIS               
ALMOST FITS THE RUC BETTER. THE TRACK OF THE LOW WILL HAVE AN                   
IMPACT ON WHERE THE HEAVIEST SNOWS FALL SUNDAY.                                 
FOR TODAY...THE ARCTIC AIRMASS WILL OOZE SOUTHWARD AND ALREADY                  
SEEING EVIDENCE OF 5-10 DEGREE TEMP FALL ALONG MB/ND BORDER SINCE               
06Z. HOW FAST THIS WILL DROP SOUTH WILL DETERMINE HIGH TEMPS                    
TODAY...BUT FOR MOST AREAS THEY WILL FALL FROM 12Z READINGS EXCEPT              
FOR FAR SE ND/WCNTRL MN. LIGHT SNOW WILL STREAK EAST ALONG                      
CANADIAN BORDER TODAY AND THIS HAS BEEN IN AGREEMENT IN PAST MODEL              
RUNS. AREA OF SNOW CAUSED BY 850 MB SOUTHERLY WINDS AND MOISTURE OVERRUNING     
THE COLD AIRMASS.                                                               
TONIGHT WILL START TO SEE THE AFFECTS OF THE UPPER WAVE AND SFC                 
LOW TAKE OVER. MODEL DATA SHOWS STRONG 850 MB WARM ADVECTION WITH               
EAST WINDS AT 850 MB OVER THE AREA OVER A COOLING SFC-925 MB                    
LAYER. STRONG THETA-E ADVECTION AS WELL AT 850 MB AND TIME HEIGHT               
CROSS SECTIONS AT FARGO AND GRAND FORKS ALL SHOW DEEP VERTICAL                  
MOTION UP TO 300 MB 06Z SUN THRU 00Z MON AS UPPER WAVE MOVES OVER               
THE AREA. TEMPERATURE PROFILES SHOW -11 TO -14C AIR IN THE 700 MB               
LAYER AND IN AREA OF MAX VERTICAL MOTION SO SNOW GROWTH WILL BE                 
EFFICIENT. ANOTHER THING IS JUST HOW MUCH QPF WILL THERE BE AS                  
TEMPS DROP BELOW ZERO LATER TONIGHT AND SUNDAY SHOULD BE VERY HIGH              
SNOW TO WATER RATIOS. ALL IN ALL WOULD APPEAR TO A GOOD SET UP FOR              
HVY SNOW IN ALL AREAS. MAX QPF VALUES FROM THIS EVENT OVER NRN MN               
AND BEST THREAT FOR 12+ WOULD BE IN THE BEMIDJI-PARK RAPIDS AREAS               
WITH A BIT LESS SNOWFALL FARTHER WEST INTO ERN ND. SREF MODEL                   
WOULD INDICATE HIGHEST AMTS NRN ND INTO NRN MN WITH A SHARP CUTOFF              
INTO NRN SD WHILE GFS WOULD HAVE HVY QPF INTO SD.                               
AS FOR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS...WINDS IN THE 925 MB TO SFC LAYER TO                
GET PRETTY STRONG UP TO NR 40 KTS ON SUNDAY AND THEY DO TURN                    
NORTHERLY OVER ERN ND AND THE VALLEY. 850 MB WINDS NEVER REALLY                 
LINK UP BUT THE SFC GRADIENT IS PRETTY TIGHT WHICH USUALLY                      
OVERCOMES ANY LACK OF A DEEP ADIABATIC LAYER. THUS WOULD EXPECT                 
925 MB WINDS OF 35-40 KTS TO MIX DOWN FOR GUSTS WITH SUSTAINED                  
VALUES CLOSER TO 25-30 KTS MOSTLY LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY EVENING.             
THESE WOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO CREATE BLIZZARD CONDITIONS WITH                    
FALLING SNOW. ANOTHER PLUS IS THAT TEMPERATURES AND WIND CHILLS                 
WILL BE DANGEROUSLY LOW. SO ALL IN ALL LOOKS PRETTY CONFIDENT FOR               
BLIZZARD CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY EVEN IF SOME               
AREAS MAY NOT SEE HUGE AMOUNTS OF SNOW.                                         
LONG TERM...                                                                    
NO CHANGES MADE.                                                                
&&                                                                              
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
ND...BLIZZARD WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6 AM CST MONDAY FOR              
     NDZ049-052-053.                                                            
     BLIZZARD WARNING FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM CST MONDAY FOR             
     NDZ006>008-014>016-024-026>030-038-039-054.                                
MN...BLIZZARD WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6 AM CST MONDAY FOR              
     MNZ029-030-040.                                                            
     BLIZZARD WARNING FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM CST MONDAY FOR             
     MNZ001>005-007-008-013>015-022-027.                                        
     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM CST MONDAY             
     FOR MNZ006-009-016-017-023-024-028.                                        
     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6 AM CST MONDAY              
     FOR MNZ031-032.                                                            
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
TG                                                                              
</pre> nd                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND                                         
430 AM CST SAT DEC 13 2008                                                      
.SHORT TERM...                                                                  
TOUGH FCST THIS MORNING...MODELS REMAIN IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT                 
BUT CONTINUE TO HAVE SLIGHT BUT IMPORTANT DIFFERENCES IN SNOW                   
AREA. GFS IS A BIT FARTHER SOUTH AND EAST WITH SFC LOW MORE OVER                
NEBRASKA INTO WESTERN IOWA THEN TO NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN....NAM               
A BIT FARTHER NORTH MORE FROM SIOUX FALLS-BROOKINGS TO NORTHWEST                
WISCONSIN AND THIS IS SIMILAR TO CANADIAN. SOME WRF AND MM5 MODELS              
ON THE WEB VIA UNIVERSITY OF WISCONSIN AND WFO DETROIT INDICATE                 
SFC LOW FARTHER NORTH FROM WATERTOWN TO INTERNATIONAL FALLS. THIS               
ALMOST FITS THE RUC BETTER. THE TRACK OF THE LOW WILL HAVE AN                   
IMPACT ON WHERE THE HEAVIEST SNOWS FALL SUNDAY.                                 
FOR TODAY...THE ARCTIC AIRMASS WILL OOZE SOUTHWARD AND ALREADY                  
SEEING EVIDENCE OF 5-10 DEGREE TEMP FALL ALONG MB/ND BORDER SINCE               
06Z. HOW FAST THIS WILL DROP SOUTH WILL DETERMINE HIGH TEMPS                    
TODAY...BUT FOR MOST AREAS THEY WILL FALL FROM 12Z READINGS EXCEPT              
FOR FAR SE ND/WCNTRL MN. LIGHT SNOW WILL STREAK EAST ALONG                      
CANADIAN BORDER TODAY AND THIS HAS BEEN IN AGREEMENT IN PAST MODEL              
RUNS. AREA OF SNOW CAUSED BY 850 MB SOUTHERLY WINDS AND MOISTURE OVERRUNING     
THE COLD AIRMASS.                                                               
TONIGHT WILL START TO SEE THE AFFECTS OF THE UPPER WAVE AND SFC                 
LOW TAKE OVER. MODEL DATA SHOWS STRONG 850 MB WARM ADVECTION WITH               
EAST WINDS AT 850 MB OVER THE AREA OVER A COOLING SFC-925 MB                    
LAYER. STRONG THETA-E ADVECTION AS WELL AT 850 MB AND TIME HEIGHT               
CROSS SECTIONS AT FARGO AND GRAND FORKS ALL SHOW DEEP VERTICAL                  
MOTION UP TO 300 MB 06Z SUN THRU 00Z MON AS UPPER WAVE MOVES OVER               
THE AREA. TEMPERATURE PROFILES SHOW -11 TO -14C AIR IN THE 700 MB               
LAYER AND IN AREA OF MAX VERTICAL MOTION SO SNOW GROWTH WILL BE                 
EFFICIENT. ANOTHER THING IS JUST HOW MUCH QPF WILL THERE BE AS                  
TEMPS DROP BELOW ZERO LATER TONIGHT AND SUNDAY SHOULD BE VERY HIGH              
SNOW TO WATER RATIOS. ALL IN ALL WOULD APPEAR TO A GOOD SET UP FOR              
HVY SNOW IN ALL AREAS. MAX QPF VALUES FROM THIS EVENT OVER NRN MN               
AND BEST THREAT FOR 12+ WOULD BE IN THE BEMIDJI-PARK RAPIDS AREAS               
WITH A BIT LESS SNOWFALL FARTHER WEST INTO ERN ND. SREF MODEL                   
WOULD INDICATE HIGHEST AMTS NRN ND INTO NRN MN WITH A SHARP CUTOFF              
INTO NRN SD WHILE GFS WOULD HAVE HVY QPF INTO SD.                               
AS FOR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS...WINDS IN THE 925 MB TO SFC LAYER TO                
GET PRETTY STRONG UP TO NR 40 KTS ON SUNDAY AND THEY DO TURN                    
NORTHERLY OVER ERN ND AND THE VALLEY. 850 MB WINDS NEVER REALLY                 
LINK UP BUT THE SFC GRADIENT IS PRETTY TIGHT WHICH USUALLY                      
OVERCOMES ANY LACK OF A DEEP ADIABATIC LAYER. THUS WOULD EXPECT                 
925 MB WINDS OF 35-40 KTS TO MIX DOWN FOR GUSTS WITH SUSTAINED                  
VALUES CLOSER TO 25-30 KTS MOSTLY LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY EVENING.             
THESE WOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO CREATE BLIZZARD CONDITIONS WITH                    
FALLING SNOW. ANOTHER PLUS IS THAT TEMPERATURES AND WIND CHILLS                 
WILL BE DANGEROUSLY LOW. SO ALL IN ALL LOOKS PRETTY CONFIDENT FOR               
BLIZZARD CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY EVEN IF SOME               
AREAS MAY NOT SEE HUGE AMOUNTS OF SNOW.                                         
.LONG TERM...                                                                   
NO CHANGES MADE.                                                                
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
WINDS WILL TURN NORTH AND NORTHEAST AND INCREASE TO 15 TO 25 MPH                
TODAY AND TO 20 TO 35 MPH TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. PATCHY LOW CLOUDS                 
AND FOG WILL GIVE WAY TO MOSTLY MVFR CIGS TODAY. THEN INCREASINGLY              
LOWER VISIBILITIES IN SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY                 
CAUSING IFR CONDITIONS.                                                         
&&                                                                              
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
ND...BLIZZARD WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6 AM CST MONDAY FOR              
     NDZ049-052-053.                                                            
     BLIZZARD WARNING FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM CST MONDAY FOR             
     NDZ006>008-014>016-024-026>030-038-039-054.                                
MN...BLIZZARD WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6 AM CST MONDAY FOR              
     MNZ029-030-040.                                                            
     BLIZZARD WARNING FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM CST MONDAY FOR             
     MNZ001>005-007-008-013>015-022-027.                                        
     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM CST MONDAY             
     FOR MNZ006-009-016-017-023-024-028.                                        
     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6 AM CST MONDAY              
     FOR MNZ031-032.                                                            
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
RIDDLE                                                                          
</pre> nd                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND                                         
222 PM CST FRI DEC 12 2008                                                      
.SHORT TERM... /TONIGHT THROUGH MON/                                            
THE FOCUS FOR THE SHORT TERM WILL BE THE WELL ADVERTISED BLIZZARD               
EVENT EXPECTED TO STRIKE THE NORTHERN TIER SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.                 
FOR TONIGHT...THE RUC40 IS SHOWING SOME WEAK FRONTOGENETIC FORCING              
RESPONSIBLE FOR BRINGING SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS TO PARTS OF                     
NORTHWEST MINNESOTA. WOULD EXPECT LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS OF LESS THAN              
ONE HALF OF AN INCH. RUC PROGS FORCING OUT OF AREA AFT 00Z...SO                 
TOOK LIKELY POPS OUT BETWEEN 00Z AND 03Z.                                       
FOR SAT NIGHT AND SUNDAY...BOTH THE NAM AND GFS 290K ISENTROPIC                 
SFCS ARE SHOWING NEARLY 100 MB OF LIFT ACROSS THE AREA SAT                      
EVENING...HOWEVER THE GFS SATURATES THE COLUMN MUCH QUICKER THAN                
THE NAM. GENERALLY FOLLOWING A GFS SOLUTION. THE 12Z GFS SHOWS                  
FAIRLY HEFTY Q VECTOR CONVERGENCE ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA BY LATE                 
SUN AFTN AND DECENT UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE MID DAY SUNDAY...THUS                
MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW SIGNIFICANT LIFT FROM SAT EVENING THROUGH               
EARLY MONDAY MORNING. ALSO WILL SEE SIG WAA ALOFT COUPLED WITH                  
STRONG COLD ADVECTION AT THE SFC THROUGHOUT THE DAY ON SUNDAY.                  
FOR WIND CONSIDERATIONS...ADIABATIC LAYER IS NOT ALL THAT DEEP AND              
H925 WINDS AVAILABLE FOR MIXING RANGE FROM 30 TO 35 KNOTS.                      
HOWEVER...LOOKING FOR NEARLY A 24 MB PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE               
CWA AND FULLY EXPECT WIND GUSTS IN THE 40 TO 45 MPH RANGE DURING                
THE DAY SUNDAY. THUS...STORM CONTINUES TO LOOK LIKE BLIZZARD CONDS              
WILL OCCUR OVER MAJORITY OF CWA OUTSIDE FORESTED AREAS IN THE FAR               
EAST. EXPECTED WIDESPREAD HEAVY...BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW ESP ON              
SUNDAY. USING HPC QPF VALUES...LOOKS LIKE SNOW ACCUMULATIONS BY                 
MONDAY MORNING COULD BE IN THE 8 TO 12 INCH RANGE IN THE VALLEY                 
AND SLIGHTLY HIGHER IN THE EAST AND NORTHEAST. ASSUMING 00Z MODEL               
RUNS CONTINUE WITH THE EXCELLENT CONSISTENCY...WILL LIKELY UPGRADE              
TO A BLIZZARD WARNING WITH 4 AM PACKAGE.                                        
SYSTEM PULLS OUT AND PRECIP SHOULD PULL OFF TO THE NORTHEAST BY                 
NOON MONDAY...HOWEVER 10 TO 15 MPH NORTHWEST WINDS SHOULD KEEP                  
SOME BLOWING AND DRIFTING GOING THROUGH LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON.                  
.LONG TERM... /TUE THROUGH FRI/                                                 
MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT. GENERAL ZONAL FLOW...WITH VERY COLD                 
AIRMASS TO BEGIN THE PERIOD. AIRMASS LOOKS TO REMAIN COLD UNTIL                 
THE VERY END OF THIS PERIOD. THERE IS SOME CONSISTENCY WITH A WAVE              
TO BRUSH THE SE FA ON TUE...AND WILL LEAVE SLIGHT POPS.                         
OTHERWISE...LOOKS FAIRLY DRY AS COLD AIRMASS TRANSLATES TO DRY                  
AIRMASS.                                                                        
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
BAND OF SNOW WHICH MOVED THROUGH KGFK AND KTVF WILL BE                          
EAST OF KBJI BY 02Z. CIGS WILL GRADUALLY LOWER TONIGHT AHEAD OF                 
APPROACHING STORM SYSTEM. EXPECT MVFR CIGS BY SAT MORNING.                      
&&                                                                              
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
ND...BLIZZARD WATCH FROM SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT             
     FOR NDZ006>008-014>016-024-026>030-038-039-049-052>054.                    
MN...BLIZZARD WATCH FROM SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT             
     FOR MNZ001>005-007-008-013>015-022-027-029-030-040.                        
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH LATE SUNDAY               
     NIGHT FOR MNZ006-009-016-017-023-024-028-031-032.                          
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SPEICHER/TG                                                                     
</pre> nd                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH                                          
1251 PM EST SAT DEC 13 2008                                                     
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
MILDER AIR WILL MOVE IN TODAY AND SUNDAY AS SOUTHERLY FLOW                      
DEVELOPS AHEAD OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE PLAINS. RAIN WILL                
BEGIN TO AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE AREA ON SUNDAY...AS THE FRONT                   
MOVES INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. THE FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE AREA ON              
MONDAY...BRINGING COLDER AIR BACK INTO THE REGION.                              
&&                                                                              
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...                                         
FLO HAS BECOME SRLY THIS MRNG AS SFC LO BEGINS TO GET ITS ACT                   
TOGETHER IN THE SRN PLAINS. WEAK MID LVL DISTURBANCE PASSING TO                 
NORTHWEST OF REGION SPREADING MID LVL CLOUDS INTO FCST AREA. ADDL               
MID/HI LVL CLOUDS OVER MID MISSISSIPPI VLY POISED TO OVERSPREAD                 
MUCH OF THE FCST AREA THIS AFTN. CURRENT RUC ANALYSIS INDCG CROSS-              
CONTOUR ISENT LIFT AND LO LVL WAA BECOMES ESTABLISHED BY MID AFTN               
IN THE MID LVLS (300-305K LEVELS)...AND THAT WILL LIKELY TRANSLATE              
TO MSTLY CLDY SKIES FOR MUCH OF THE FCST AREA. CANNOT COMPLETELY                
RULE OUT A FLURRY LATER THIS AFTN ACRS WEST CNTRL OH BUT MODEL                  
SOUNDINGS INDCG SUCH A DRY BNDRY LYR THAT WILL LEAVE OUT ANY                    
MENTION ATTM. WITH CLOUDS FILLING IN THIS AFTN...HAVE LOWERED FCST              
HIGHS A FEW DEG DESPITE DVLPG WAA. EXPECT AFTN HIGHS WILL RISE                  
MAINLY INTO THE 30S...WITH POTENTIAL AT L40S NEAR AND SOUTH OF THE              
OHIO RIVER.                                                                     
ZONE AND GRID UPDATES ALREADY SENT.                                             
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...                               
GOOD ISENTROPIC LIFT CONTINUES THIS EVENING...AS FA REMAINS                     
BETWEEN RETREATING HIGH AND LOW OVER THE PLAINS. GFS CONTINUES TO               
TRY AND BRING SOME LIGHT PCPN ACRS THE N/NW TONIGHT. IT IS THE                  
OUTLIER...NOT SUPPORTED BY THE NAM/ECMWF OR THE SREF. KEPT FA DRY               
TONIGHT.                                                                        
CDFNT...ASSOCIATED WITH SFC LOW...MOVES INTO THE WRN OH VLY BY                  
LATE SUNDAY. BEST ISENTROPIC LIFT AND P DEFS REMAINS ACRS THE WRN               
HALF OF THE FA. THIS COMBINED WITH RELATIVELY DRY LOW                           
LEVELS...SHOULD KEEP ANY PCPN CHC CONFINED TO THE W ON SUNDAY.                  
PCPN CHCS WILL INCREASE AS SUNDAY NIGHT PROGRESSES AS CDFNT MOVES               
E UP THE OH VLY. AHEAD OF FNT...H8 JET OF 40-50 KTS WILL AFFECT                 
THE FA SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. SUSTAINED WINDS WILL INCREASE                  
ALONG WITH THE GUSTS. AREA COULD SEE GUSTS TO 40 KTS. FOR                       
NOW...THINK THAT WINDS SHOULD STAY BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA...BUT                
WILL MENTION THE WINDS IN THE HWO.                                              
FNT PUSHES INTO THE AREA ON MONDAY. TEMPS MAY RAISE FOR A FEW HOURS             
IN THE MORNING...BUT THEN WILL FALL DURING THE AFTN AS THE COLD                 
AIR WORKS IN.                                                                   
TRENDED TOWARDS THE WARMER MAV LOW TEMPS GUIDANCE FOR                           
TONIGHT...THEN THE ME GUIDANCE ON SUNDAY...SINCE WENT DRIER THAN                
THE GFS. WITH THE WIND AND RAIN AHEAD OF THE FRONT...WENT WITH THE              
WARMER MET TEMPS SUNDAY NIGHT.                                                  
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...                                     
AS COLD AIR CONTINUES TO SPILL IN THE FA BEHIND THE CDFNT MONDAY                
NIGHT...PCPN WILL CHANGE TO SNOW OR A RAIN/SNOW MIX. FRONT STALLS               
IN KY/WV LATE MONDAY NIGHT. BOTH ECMWF AND GFS ARE SHOWING A WAV                
ON FRONT FOR TUE...WITH THICKNESSES PUSHING BACK TO THE N.                      
THICKNESSES ARE WARM ENUF FOR PCPN TO CHANGE BACK TO RAIN IN THE S              
AND A SN/RA MIX IN THE N. GFS IS STRONGER WITH SFC LOW THAT PUSHES              
ACRS THE REGION TUE NGT. WENT CLOSER TO THE WEAKER ECMWF. GFS                   
TRIES TO PUSH ANOTHER WAV N ON WED. STAYED WITH THE ECMWF SOLUTION              
OF A STRONGER HIGH OVER THE OH VLY.                                             
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...                                    
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THRU 18Z SUNDAY. MID/HI LVL CLOUDS                      
CONTINUE TO STREAM ACRS THE TERMINALS THIS AFTN AS ISENT LIFT AND               
LO LVL WAA BECOMES ESTABLISHED ACRS THE REGION. INITIAL SHOT OF                 
MID LVL CLOUDS WILL SHIFT EAST OF THE TERMINALS THIS EVNG WITH                  
ONLY SCT CLOUDS AS DRIER AIR BRIEFLY ADVECTS INTO OH VLY WITH SFC               
HI PRES ANCHORED THRU THE CAROLINAS. 50KT 850 LLJ ROTATES AHEAD OF              
DEEP SFC LO MOVING THRU CNTRL PLAINS AND ACRS REGION LATE TONIGHT.              
SRLY WINDS LIKELY TO BE LIGHT ENUF FOR SVRL HOURS TO ALLOW FOR                  
LLWS CRITERIA TO BE MET AS BNDRY LYR WINDS VEER TO MORE OF A SW                 
DIR. ALL OF THE TERMINALS SHOULD DROP BELOW LLWS CRIT AFTER                     
DAYBREAK SUNDAY AS SFC WINDS INCREASE ABV 15KTS. DEEPER LO LVL                  
MOISTURE WILL OVERSPREAD THE FCST AREA SUN MRNG WITH CIGS LOWERING              
INTO AN OVC SC DECK. MODEL SOUNDINGS INDCG SRLY WINDS GUSTING TO                
30-35KTS BY LATE SUN MRNG AND CONTINUING THRU THE DAY. COULD SEE A              
FEW SPRINKLES OR ISOLD -SHRA AT WESTERN TERMINALS LATE IN THE FCST              
PERIOD...BUT CHANCE REMAINS LOW ENUF TO KEEP OUT OF TERMINALS                   
ATTM.                                                                           
OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE ON MONDAY AND                 
TUESDAY.                                                                        
&&                                                                              
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
OH...NONE.                                                                      
KY...NONE.                                                                      
IN...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SYNOPSIS...SITES                                                                
NEAR TERM...RYAN                                                                
SHORT TERM...SITES                                                              
LONG TERM...SITES                                                               
AVIATION...RYAN                                                                 
</pre> oh                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY                     
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD                                          
656 PM MST SAT DEC 13 2008                                                      
.DISCUSSION...01Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED LOW IN NORTH CENTRAL CO.              
00Z UPPER AIR ANALYSIS HAD 130KT JET STREAK NOSING INTO CO WITH                 
STRONG LIFT IN LEFT EXIT REGION. STRONG LIFT IMPACTING AREA OF                  
STEEP LAPSE ABOVE ARCTIC AIR WHICH HAS SLIPPED INTO NE. FEW                     
LIGHTNING STRIKES NOTED EARLIER. LATEST RADAR MOSAIC SHOWED                     
CONVECTION SN MOVING THROUGH PORTIONS OF THE CWA. 00Z RUC HAS BAND              
OF STRONG FRONTOGENESIS FROM EASTERN WY INTO WESTERN SD THROUGH                 
09Z. SNOW SHOULD CONTINUE TO GENERATE ALONG THIS BOUNDARY AND                   
SHIFT EAST. ANOTHER PUSH OF LIFT WILL BE FURTHER EAST OVER THE CWA              
LATER TONIGHT. WINDS CONTINUE TO INCREASE OVER THE AREA WITH                    
NUMEROUS REPORTS OF NEAR ZERO VISIBILITY. BITTER COLD/WIND CHILLS               
CONTINUE UNABATED INTO THE AREA.                                                
BLIZZARD WARNING LOOKS GOOD. ADDED CUSTER/FALL RIVER TO THE WINTER              
STORM WARNING BASED ON SNOWFALL THIS EVENING.                                   
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...WIDESPREAD LIFR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT DUE TO SN/BLSN.                
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 300 PM MST SAT DEC 13 2008/                         
DISCUSSION...CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES COLD FRONT STRETCHING              
FROM LAKE SUPERIOR THROUGH MINNESOTA INTO SOUTHERN SOUTH                        
DAKOTA...WITH LOW OVER SOUTHEAST WYOMING. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS                  
PLACES SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER OUR AREA AS UPPER TROF WITH AXIS               
STRETCHING FROM FAR WESTERN MONTANA INTO SOUTHEASTERN IDAHO                     
CONTINUES ITS APPROACH. CURRENT RADAR MOSAIC SHOWING BROAD AREA OF              
SNOWFALL OVER EASTERN MONTANA STRETCHING INTO NORTHEAST WYOMING AND             
NUDGING INTO WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA. TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO DIVE                
OVER THE REGION BEHIND THE PROGRESSING FRONT...WITH READINGS AROUND             
0 ALREADY NOTED OVER PARTS OF SOUTH CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST MONTANA. SOME             
FREEZING DRIZZLE AND FOG IS ALSO DEVELOPING AS THE FRONT MARCHES                
THROUGH...THOUGH SHOULD SWITCH TO SNOW QUICKLY.                                 
FOR TONIGHT...AFOREMENTIONED UPPER TROF WILL CONTINUE ITS EASTWARD              
SLIDE WITH SNOW CONTINUING TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE CWFA. SURFACE LOW              
WILL SWING INTO NEBRASKA WITH PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENING. WINDS               
WILL INCREASE GREATLY THIS EVENING BRINGING IN THE VERY COLD AIR.               
UPSLOPE ENHANCEMENT WILL BRING HIGHER SNOW AMOUNTS TO THE NORTHERN              
INTO THE CENTRAL BLACK HILLS. THE SECOND AREA OF HIGHER SNOW AMOUNTS            
IS EXPECTED TO BE TOWARDS SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA LATER TONIGHT              
WHERE TIGHT GRADIENT OF 700 MB FRONTOGENESIS IS NOTED. GFS TENDS TO             
PUT THIS FEATURE FURTHER EAST WITH NAM KEEPING IT OVER OUR AREA.                
WITH THE NAMS RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY WITH THIS FEATURE...HAVE PUT               
MORE VALUE INTO IT.                                                             
FOR SUNDAY...STORM WILL CONTINUE INTO THE MORNING WHILE UPPER TROF              
CONTINUES ITS EASTWARD PUSH...WITH AXIS SLIDING INTO WESTERN                    
SOUTH DAKOTA BY THE EVENING. SNOW WILL TAPER OFF SLOWLY FROM WEST TO            
EAST IN THE AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH WINDS STARTING TO SLOWLY TAPER               
OFF. WITH THE ARCTIC AIRMASS FIRMLY OVER THE AREA...WIND CHILLS WILL            
BECOME DANGEROUSLY LOW OVERNIGHT.                                               
ON MONDAY...TEMPS WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW AVERAGE THOUGH SOME WARMER             
AIR WILL WILL TRY TO NUDGE INTO NORTHEAST WYOMING AND THE BLACK                 
HILLS. WITH THE OVERRUNNING FROM THIS...HAVE GONE WITH A CHANCE OF              
SNOW OVER THE WEST EARLY...PUSHING EAST LATER IN THE EVENING.                   
EXTENDED...THE ARCTIC AIRMASS WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE WX ON               
TUESDAY...ALTHOUGH TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE SLIGHTLY. OVERRUNNING             
WARM AIR WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SNOW ON TUESDAY. WEDNESDAY THROUGH              
SATURDAY WILL SEE TEMPS MODERATE MAINLY INTO 20S...SOME TEENS IN FAR            
NRN SD. WED SHOULD BE DRY WITH A CHC OF SNOW OVER SRN AREAS LATE WED            
NITE INTO THURS AS A SYSTEM MVS SOUTH OF REGION. NEXT CHC OF PCPN               
WILL BE FRIDAY NIGHT THRU THE WEEKEND AS A SERIES OF WEAK UPPER                 
LEVEL DISTURBANCES MOVE THRU THE FLOW AND BRING LOW CHANCES OF SNOW.            
AVIATION...VFR CONDS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THRU 20Z...THEN                   
CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN TO DETERIORATE WITH IFR CONDS IN SNOW/BLSN/LOW            
CIGS LIKELY BY 03Z SUNDAY AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE REST OF THE                
FCST PERIOD.                                                                    
&&                                                                              
.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
SD...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 9 PM MST SUNDAY FOR CENTRAL BLACK               
     HILLS-NORTHERN BLACK HILLS.                                                
     BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 9 PM MST /10 PM CST/ SUNDAY FOR BENNETT-            
     MELLETTE-TODD-TRIPP.                                                       
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM MST SUNDAY FOR FALL RIVER-                 
     SOUTHERN BLACK HILLS-SOUTHERN FOOT HILLS.                                  
     BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 9 PM MST SUNDAY FOR BUTTE-CUSTER CO                 
     PLAINS-HAAKON-HARDING-HERMOSA FOOT HILLS-JACKSON-NORTHERN                  
     FOOT HILLS-NORTHERN MEADE CO PLAINS-PENNINGTON CO PLAINS-                  
     PERKINS-RAPID CITY-SHANNON-SOUTHERN MEADE CO PLAINS-                       
     STURGIS/PIEDMONT FOOT HILLS-ZIEBACH.                                       
WY...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 9 PM MST SUNDAY FOR WYOMING BLACK               
     HILLS.                                                                     
     BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 1 PM MST SUNDAY FOR NORTHEASTERN CROOK-             
     NORTHERN CAMPBELL-SOUTHERN CAMPBELL-WESTERN CROOK-WESTON.                  
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
HELGESON                                                                        
</pre> sd                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA                                          
447 AM EST FRI DEC 12 2008                                                      
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE EAST COAST WILL RAPIDLY MOVE NORTHEAST AND               
AWAY FROM THE AREA TODAY. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE TRAILING                   
THIS SYSTEM WILL PASS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS RESULTING IN LINGERING               
MOUNTIAN SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES THROUGH TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE               
WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION SATURDAY WITH DRY WEATHER FOR THE                    
WEEKEND.                                                                        
&&                                                                              
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...                                                 
GENERALLY FOLLOWING THE 12KM NAM/LOCAL WRF/RUC THROUGH 1ST 12 HOURS.            
THE WRF ESPECIALLY HAS BEEN DOING A PRETTY GOOD JOB WITH THE                    
LOCATION OF PRECIP. GIVEN THIS...LOOKING AT RAIN ENDING EARLY THIS              
MORNING OUT EAST WITH THE DEFORMATION ZONE SNOW PULLING                         
NORTHEASTWARD AWAY FROM THE FAR SW ZONES. WILL SEE SOME SNOW MAINLY             
IN THE MTNS OF SE WV...WHERE UP TO 3 INCHES POSSIBLE ON THE HIGHEST             
RIDGES OF GREENBRIER. OTHERWISE...A GENERAL 1-2 INCH AMOUNT THERE.              
SHOULD SEE A TRANSITION TO ISOLATED/SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS AS NW                
FLOW KICKS IN BEHIND DEPARTING UPPER TROUGH SHEARING NORTHEAST INTO             
THE MID ATLANTIC. SHORTWAVE MOVING EAST ACROSS THE MID                          
MISSISSIPPI/LOWER OH VLY WILL KEEP THE SNOW SHOWERS AROUND THROUGH              
THE DAY IN FAVORED UPSLOPE AREAS...BUT NOTHING MAJOR. THIS WAVE WILL            
MOVE EAST INTO THE NC BY THIS EVENING WITH SNOW SHOWERS DIMINISHING             
AFTER MIDNIGHT. LOOKING AT ADDITIONAL 1 INCH AMOUNTS ON WRN SLOPES.             
WINDS TODAY WILL BE UNDER ADVISORY LEVELS...WITH GUSTS TO 40 MPH                
POSSIBLE THIS MORNIGN ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE IN NC/SW VA.                         
TEMPS TODAY TRICKY WITH ONGOING COLD AIR ADVECTION. GENERALLY RAN               
WITH 3 HOURLY TEMP BLENDS FROM THE 12KM NAM/21Z SREF.                           
OVERALL...SHOULD SEE HIGHS TODAY IN THE WEST WHAT THE TEMPS ARE                 
AROUND 12-15Z. SOME DOWNSLOPE CLEARING/COMPRESSION WILL BUMP TEMPS              
UP A FEW DEGREES OUT EAST.                                                      
TONIGHT...THE GRADIENT RELAXES TOWARD MORNING...AND TEMPS SHOULD                
DROP DOWN COLDER THAN MAV IN THE WEST...CLOSE TO MAV OUT EAST.                  
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...                                  
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED OVERHEADY SATURDAY WITH LIGHT WINDS              
AND MAINLY CLEAR SKIES. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN COOL PER COLD                  
NATURE OF AIRMASS.                                                              
SATURDAY NIGHTS FORECAST TEMPS ARE A BIT OF A CHALLENGE. AS THE                 
SURFACE HIGH SLIDES EAST...WARM AIR ADVECTION CLOUDINESS WILL BE ON             
THE INCREASE. THIS MAY COUNTER ANY SIGNIFICANT RADIATIONAL                      
COOLING. ATTM WILL STICK PRETTY CLOSE TO MOS AND WILL NOT HEDGE                 
EITHER WAY.                                                                     
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY LOSE ITS GRIP ACROSS THE AREA ON SUNDAY               
AS THE CENTER OF THE HIGH SHIFTS INTO NEW ENGLAND. THIS WILL ALLOW              
FOR FLOW ACROSS THE REGION TO GRADUALLY BECOME MORE                             
SOUTHEAST...AND HEIGHTS TO BEGIN TO BUILD. RETURN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE            
IS PROGGED TO CREEP NORTHWARD ALONG THE SPINE OF THE APPALACHIANS               
SUNDAY NIGHT AS SOUTHEAST WINDS INCREASE. SHALLOWNESS OF THE                    
MOISTURE SUGGESTS ANY PRECIP THREAT WILL BE IN THE FORM OF DRIZZLE              
AND MAINLY ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE WHERE OROGRAPHIC LIFT MAY HELP TO               
SATURATE LOW LEVELS. TEMPS WILL BE ON THE RISE PER WARMING                      
THICKNESSES...SO NO PRECIPITATION TYPE ISSUES ARE ANTICIPATED.                  
FOR SUNDAY FOLLOWED THE COOLER NAM MOS. THE GFS MOS LOOKED TOO                  
WARM PER INCREASING CLOUD COVER.                                                
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...                                         
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH AND THEN MOVE INTO AND STALL OVER THE                
AREA. WE SHOULD CONTINUE TO SEE MODERATING TEMPERATURES THROUGH                 
THIS PERIOD AS HEIGHTS CONTINUE TO RISE IN ADVANCE OF THE                       
FRONT...AND ALSO EXPECT SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS ACROSS THE                
REGION...ESPECIALLY TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. WITH TIMING QUESTIONS               
DAY 6 AND BEYOND...I HAVE KEPT POPS CHANCE FOR NOW. COLD AIR WILL               
ALSO BE FILTERING INTO THE AREA BEHIND THE FRONT...SO WE MAY SEE                
SOME SNOW SHOWERS IN THE MTNS BEGINNING TUESDAY NIGHT...AND THEN                
AGAIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT.                                                          
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION /09Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...                                       
CHECK AIRMETS AND SIGMETS FOR TURBULENCE...ICING...IFR/MOUNTAINS                
OBSCURATIONS. POOR FLYING CONDITIONS IN GENERAL EXPECTED WITH LOW               
CLOUDS AND RAIN THRU TONIGHT.                                                   
LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NE AND FINALLY EXIT THE AREA                 
LATER TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY. DEEP MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH                  
THIS SYSTEM WILL RESULT IN CONTINUED PERIODIC RAINFALL ALONG WITH               
IFR/LIFR CIGS THRU MUCH EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. SNOW IS BEGINNING               
TO MOVE INTO SE WV AND WILL BE KEEPING CIGS/VSBYS DOWN FOR A FEW                
HOURS THIS MORNING...BEFORE THE SYSTEM SWINGS NORTHEAST                         
TRANSITIONING IT TO LIGHT FLURRIES BY DAWN. WINDS WILL PICK UP                  
THROUGH THE MORNING BEHIND DEPARTING LOW WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 TO 30              
KNOTS OVER THE MTNS...INCLUDING ROANOKE.                                        
CONDITIONS AT ROA...LYH AND DAN WILL BE IMPROVING ON A COLD                     
NORTHWEST FLOW BY EARLY FRIDAY MORNING AS THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE              
MOVES EAST OF THE AREA. FOR BLF/LWB...MTN SNOW SHOWERS WILL                     
CONTINUE WITH MVFR...POSSIBLY IFR CONDITIONS PERSISTING THROUGH                 
THE MORNING HOURS FRIDAY....WITH SOME IMPROVEMENT BY THE AFTERNOON              
ESPECIALLY AT LWB.                                                              
HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD OVER THE AREA THIS WEEKEND                   
WITH RETURN TO VFR CONDITIONS SATURDAY INTO MONDAY. ANOTHER COLD                
FRONT MAY IMPACT THE AREA WITH MORE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE MVFR                   
CONDITIONS ON TUE.                                                              
&&                                                                              
.HYDROLOGY...                                                                   
A RIVER FLOOD WARNING FOR SOUTH BOSTON REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR                    
MINOR FLOODING TODAY.                                                           
&&                                                                              
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
VA...NONE.                                                                      
NC...NONE.                                                                      
WV...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SYNOPSIS...WP                                                                   
NEAR TERM...WP                                                                  
SHORT TERM...PM                                                                 
LONG TERM...DS/JJ                                                               
AVIATION...JH/WP                                                                
HYDROLOGY...PM                                                                  
</pre> va                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA                                          
202 AM EST FRI DEC 12 2008                                                      
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
STRONG LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTHEAST ALONG THE VIRGINIA NORTH                
CAROLINA BORDER OVERNIGHT...AND PASS NORTHEAST OFF THE MID                      
ATLANTIC COAST BY FRIDAY MORNING. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE                    
TRAILING THIS SYSTEM WILL PASS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS BY FRIDAY                   
MORNING RESULTING IN A PERIOD OF SNOW. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD                 
INTO THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY.                                      
&&                                                                              
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...                                         
LAST BATCH OF HEAVY RAINS WITH SFC/UPPER LOW MOVING OVER SOUTHSIDE              
VA/NW NC PIEDMONT AND SHOULD BE EAST OF HERE BY 12Z. KEPT HIGHEST               
POPS OUT THAT WAY UNTIL THEN...WITH DRY SLOTTING KEEPING IT DRY IN              
BETWEEN THIS AND THE DEFORMATION ZONE SNOW OVER THE CENTRAL APPS                
INTO THE NE TN. STILL LOOKING AT MAINLY SNOW IN SE WV...INTO THE                
MTNS OF SW VA THROUGH 12Z...THEN TAPERING OFF. ACCUMULATIONS                    
SHOULD STAY BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA WITH GENERAL 1-3 INCH AMOUNTS               
AT HIGHEST ELEVATIONS...WITH NO MORE THAN A DUSTING ACROSS THE VALLEYS.         
TEMPERATURES BEGINNING TO DROP IN THE WEST...AND WILL MAKE INROADS              
INTO THE PIEDMONT AROUND 12Z. WINDS HAVE ALSO PICKED UP AS THE SFC              
LOW BEGINS TRACKING SLOWLY EAST...WITH IT PICKING UP SPEED. THE                 
03Z RUC/LOCAL WRF SEEM TO BE HANDLING CURRENT SITUATION BEST.                   
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...                       
THE SURFACE LOW WILL BE MOVING AWAY FROM THE AREA FRIDAY                        
MORNING...AND ALL PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO END QUICKER THAN                 
EARLIER FCST. EVEN IN THE MTNS WHERE THERE WILL BE SOME UPSLOPE FLOW            
AND COLD ADVECTION...THE MOISTURE IS SHALLOW ENOUGH THAT ANY SNOW               
SHOWERS IN THE MORNING WILL BE LIGHT AND BRIEF. STILL AN UPPER LEVEL            
DISTURBANCE PROGGED TO MOVE ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY DURING THE                   
AFTERNOON AND CROSS OUR FORECAST AREA EARLY FRIDAY NIGHT. THERE MAY             
BE A PERIOD OF MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES WITH THIS                     
DISTURBANCE...BUT MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM LOOKS PRETTY             
SCANT. HAVE KEPT POPS CHANCE...AND MAINLY ON THE WESTERN SLOPES                 
FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ANY SNOW ACCUMS WOULD LIKELY BE JUST A            
FEW INCHES OR LESS FROM THIS.                                                   
COLD AIR ADVECTION FRIDAY WILL RESULT IN NEARLY STEADY TEMPS...                 
ESPECIALLY MOUNTAINS WHERE CLOUDS WILL PERSIST. HIGH PRESSURE WILL              
BUILD ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE WEST FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.                 
SKIES SHOULD CLEAR...AND WITH SOME MOUNTAIN SNOW COVER...SATURDAY               
MORNING TEMPS SHOULD SLIP INTO THE TEENS AND 20S.                               
SATURDAY WILL HAVE THE HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD BRINGING PLENTY OF                
SUN...BUT WITH A CHILLY AIRMASS IN PLACE TO KEEP HIGH TEMPS IN THE              
UPPER 30S TO MID 40S. SHOULD BE ANOTHER GOOD RADIATION NIGHT                    
SATURDAY NIGHT...SO HAVE STILL KEPT LOW TEMPS COOLER THAN GUIDANCE.             
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...                                         
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY LOSE ITS GRIP ACROSS THE AREA ON SUNDAY AS            
THE CENTER OF THE HIGH SHIFTS INTO NEW ENGLAND. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR             
FLOW ACROSS THE REGION TO GRADUALLY BECOME MORE SOUTHEAST...AND                 
HEIGHTS TO BEGIN TO BUILD. RETURN MOISTURE MAY GENERATE SOME                    
SHOWERS ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE IN FAR SW VA AND NW NC SUNDAY NIGHT.               
SUNDAY SHOULD BE A BIT WARMER THAN SATURDAY.                                    
MONDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH AND THEN MOVE                
INTO AND STALL OVER THE AREA. WE SHOULD CONTINUE TO SEE MODERATING              
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THIS PERIOD AS HEIGHTS CONTINUE TO RISE IN                 
ADVANCE OF THE FRONT...AND ALSO EXPECT SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS            
ACROSS THE REGION...ESPECIALLY TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. WITH TIMING              
QUESTIONS DAY 6 AND BEYOND...I HAVE KEPT POPS CHANCE FOR NOW. COLD              
AIR WILL ALSO BE FILTERING INTO THE AREA BEHIND THE FRONT...SO WE               
MAY SEE SOME SNOW SHOWERS IN THE MTNS BEGINNING TUESDAY                         
NIGHT...AND THEN AGAIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT.                                         
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION /07Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...                                       
CHECK AIRMETS AND SIGMETS FOR TURBULENCE...ICING...IFR/MOUNTAINS                
OBSCURATIONS. POOR FLYING CONDITIONS IN GENERAL EXPECTED WITH LOW               
CLOUDS AND RAIN THRU TONIGHT.                                                   
LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NE AND FINALLY EXIT THE AREA                 
LATER TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY. DEEP MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH                  
THIS SYSTEM WILL RESULT IN CONTINUED PERIODIC RAINFALL ALONG WITH               
IFR/LIFR CIGS THRU MUCH EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. SNOW IS BEGINNING               
TO MOVE INTO SE WV AND WILL BE KEEPING CIGS/VSBYS DOWN FOR A FEW                
HOURS THIS MORNING...BEFORE THE SYSTEM SWINGS NORTHEAST                         
TRANSITIONING IT TO LIGHT FLURRIES BY DAWN. WINDS WILL PICK UP                  
THROUGH THE MORNING BEHIND DEPARTING LOW WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 TO 30              
KNOTS OVER THE MTNS...INCLUDING ROANOKE.                                        
CONDITIONS AT ROA...LYH AND DAN WILL BE IMPROVING ON A COLD                     
NORTHWEST FLOW BY EARLY FRIDAY MORNING AS THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE              
MOVES EAST OF THE AREA. FOR BLF/LWB...MTN SNOW SHOWERS WILL                     
CONTINUE WITH MVFR...POSSIBLY IFR CONDITIONS PERSISTING THROUGH                 
THE MORNING HOURS FRIDAY....WITH SOME IMPROVEMENT BY THE AFTERNOON              
ESPECIALLY AT LWB.                                                              
HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD OVER THE AREA THIS WEEKEND                   
WITH RETURN TO VFR CONDITIONS SATURDAY INTO MONDAY. ANOTHER COLD                
FRONT MAY IMPACT THE AREA WITH MORE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE MVFR                   
CONDITIONS ON TUE.                                                              
&&                                                                              
.HYDROLOGY...                                                                   
RAINFALL SO FAR HAS RANGED FROM ONE TO THREE INCHES ACROSS MUCH                 
OF THE REGION. A RIVER FLOOD WARNING FOR SOUTH BOSTON REMAINS IN                
EFFECT FOR MINOR FLOODING EXPECTED FRIDAY EVENING.                              
&&                                                                              
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
VA...NONE.                                                                      
NC...NONE.                                                                      
WV...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SYNOPSIS...JH/WP                                                                
NEAR TERM...JH/WP                                                               
SHORT TERM...JJ                                                                 
LONG TERM...DS/JJ                                                               
AVIATION...JH/WP                                                                
HYDROLOGY...                                                                    
</pre> va                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPOKANE WA                                             
232 AM PST SAT DEC 13 2008                                                      
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
THE ARRIVAL OF A STRONG ARCTIC COLD FRONT TODAY WILL BRING                      
SNOW...BITING NORTH WINDS...AND FALLING TEMPERATURES TO THE INLAND              
NORTHWEST. THE COMBINATION OF BLOWING SNOW AND DANGEROUSLY COLD                 
WIND CHILLS WILL CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY. ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL                
REMAIN OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK WITH                 
SOME OF THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES WE HAVE SEEN IN YEARS.                         
&&                                                                              
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
TODAY...THE INLAND NORTHWEST WILL FEEL THE IMPACT OF THE                        
VERTICALLY STACKED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE SLOWLY TRACKING ACROSS THE              
REGION. CURRENTLY...THE CENTER OF THE LOW PRESSURE HAS SLIPPED                  
EAST OF THE CASCADES AND IS NEAR WENATCHEE...WHERE WINDS AND                    
PRECIPITATION ARE LIGHT. THE LOW IS SLOWLY FILLING AND WILL TAKE                
A SSE PATH...SIMILAR TO WHAT IS DEPICTED BY THE 6Z RUC AND NAM.                 
EACH MODEL IS PLAYING CATCH UP WITH THE TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM. THE               
MORE SOUTHERLY TRAJECTORY IS DUE TO THE PUSH OF THE ARCTIC FRONT                
WHICH WILL BE SLIPPING SOUTH AND OOZING SOME FRIGID AIR INTO THE                
NORTHERN VALLEYS TODAY. CURRENTLY SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE QUITE                
MILD...IN THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S...AS THE FORECAST AREA WAS                   
WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT. THESE READINGS WILL               
MOST LIKELY BE THE LOWS FOR THE NIGHT...AND THE HIGHS FOR                       
SATURDAY. ONCE THE ARCTIC AIR INVADES THE REGION...ANTICIPATE                   
FALLING TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE DAY UNDER STIFF NORTH-NORTHEAST                
WINDS WITH SPEEDS OF 20-30 KTS. RECENT RADAR LOOPS SHOW SNOW                    
RETURNS REDEVELOPING AROUND THE CIRCULATION OVER EASTERN                        
WASHINGTON AND ANTICIPATE MORE INTENSIFICATION OF THE SNOW                      
ACTIVITY ACROSS THE NORTHERN ZONES EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. SNOW TO              
WATER RATIOS WILL JUMP FROM AROUND 12 TO 1 TO ALMOST 20 TO 1...MAKING           
THE SNOW DRY AND FLUFFY. THIS COUPLED WITH THE INCREASED WINDS WILL             
LEAD TO BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW IN MOST EXPOSED LOCATIONS.                    
TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...THE ARCTIC BOUNDARY SLIPS INTO THE SOUTHEAST               
ZONES BY THIS EVENING...KEEPING NORTH TO EAST WINDS ACROSS THE                  
REGION. AREAS OF BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW WILL CONTINUE AS                     
TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO PLUMMET. 850MB TEMPS FALL TO -20C UNDER                
STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION. THE FRIGID TEMPERATURES AND THE                      
PERSISTENT WINDS WILL LEAD TO DANGEROUS COLD WIND CHILLS OF -10 TO              
-20 DEGREES INTO THE NIGHT. MEANWHILE...A SHORTWAVE RIDGE ALOFT                 
BUILDS OVER THE REGION WITH MORE STABLE AND DRY CONDITIONS                      
PENETRATING THE NORTHERN TIER ZONES. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE HOLD                 
FIRM INTO SUNDAY DESPITE THE FORCE OF ANOTHER PACIFIC LOW ROLLING               
DOWN THE WA COAST. THIS WILL LEAD TO INCREASED SOUTHERLY FLOW                   
ALOFT...YET THE STABLE LOW LEVEL COLD AIR WEDGE WILL REMAIN UN-                 
BUDGED ACROSS THE REGION. THIS WILL KEEP LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND                   
LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES IN MOST AREAS THROUGH SUNDAY.                    
ANTICIPATE SOME RATHER LOW MAX TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY WITH LITTLE               
RECOVERY ANTICIPATED. CURRENT WINTER WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS WILL                    
CONTINUE THROUGH LATE SATURDAY TO EARLY SUNDAY. /RFOX.                          
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...SUNDAY NIGHT AN AREA OF LOW                    
PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL SLIDE SOUTH ALONG THE                    
WASHINGTON AND OREGON COAST KEEPING SOME SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE                
SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE BEST CHANCE FOR                      
PRECIPITATION WILL BE OVER THE BLUE MTS WHICH WILL BENEFIT FROM THE             
MOISTURE WRAPPING AROUND THE LOW AND THE EASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW.                 
MODEL QPF IS LIGHT BUT A GENEROUS SNOW TO LIQUID RATIO OF 20 TO 1               
WILL RESULT IN A COUPLE OF INCHES OF ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL SUNDAY                 
NIGHT IN BLUE MTS BUT BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA.                                  
THE BIG STORY IS THE VERY COLD TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THROUGH MIDWEEK            
AS ARCTIC AIR SETTLES IN OVER THE INLAND NORTHWEST. AS THE LOW DROPS            
SOUTH...A SURFACE HIGH WILL BUILD OVER BRITISH COLUMBIA. NORTHEAST              
FLOW AROUND THE HIGH WILL DRAG VERY COLD AIR INTO THE FORECAST AREA.            
TEMPERATURES WILL DIP WELL BELOW ZERO ACROSS THE NORTHEAST VALLEYS              
SUNDAY NIGHT AND REMAIN IN THE DEEP FREEZE THROUGH MIDWEEK WITH                 
DAYTIME TEMPERATURES STRUGGLING TO BREAK INTO POSITIVE TERRITORY.               
THESE COLD TEMPERATURES WILL COMBINE WITH 15 TO 25 MPH WINDS TO                 
CREATE DANGEROUS WIND CHILL TEMPERATURES FOR THE START OF THE                   
WORKWEEK. 850MB TEMPERATURES START TO MODERATE A BIT BY WEDNESDAY               
BUT CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS ALLOW BITTER COLD TEMPERATURES TO            
PERSIST.                                                                        
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...THE COLD AIR WILL REMAIN IN PLACE              
AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS            
COULD BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL AS SNOW TO LIQUID             
RATIOS WILL REMAIN HIGH. /KELCH                                                 
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
PRECIPITATION HAS SHIFTED NORTH AND EAST OF THE TAF SITES ATTM.                 
MAIN AREA OF SNOW REMAINS ACROSS EXTREME NORTHEAST WASHINGTON AND               
NORTH IDAHO. AREAS OF FREEZING FOG WILL LINGER NEAR KMWH UNTIL                  
THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE NEARS THE AREA TOWARD 12Z. AREAS OF SNOW               
WILL INCREASE ACROSS KEAT AND KOMK...SPREADING TO KMWH BY 12Z SAT.              
MEANWHILE THE ARCTIC FRONT FROM THE NORTH WILL SPREAD MODERATE TO               
HEAVY SNOW IN FROM THE NORTH BETWEEN 12Z-18Z SAT INTO KGEG-KCOE-                
KPUW...AND FINALLY REACHING KLWS AFTER 18Z. ANTICIPATE LIFR                     
CONDITION WITH SNOW AND BLSN WITH NE WINDS 15G25KTS. CIGS WILL                  
IMPROVE ACROSS THE NORTH IN THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY                        
EVENING...AS SKIES CLEAR AND BLSN DECREASES AFTER 0Z SUN. /RFOX.                
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
SPOKANE        29   1   6  -8   2 -13 / 100  50  30  20  10  10                 
COEUR D`ALENE  30   1   8  -9   2 -11 / 100  50  30  20  10  10                 
PULLMAN        33  10  13  -1   7  -3 / 100  70  50  30  20  10                 
LEWISTON       36  15  20   6  15   3 /  80  90  50  30  20  10                 
COLVILLE       26   0  10  -9   3 -10 /  90  20  20  10  10  10                 
SANDPOINT      23  -3   6 -11   0 -12 /  80  40  20  10  10  10                 
KELLOGG        25  -1   5  -9   0 -10 / 100  70  40  20  20  10                 
MOSES LAKE     28   8  12  -3   9  -6 /  90  50  40  20  10  10                 
WENATCHEE      26   8  14  -3  10  -3 /  80  50  40  20  10  10                 
OMAK           23   8  12  -6   7  -9 / 100  30  30  20  10  10                 
&&                                                                              
.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
ID...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 10 PM PST THIS EVENING FOR NORTHERN             
     PANHANDLE.                                                                 
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 10 AM PST SUNDAY FOR IDAHO PALOUSE.             
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 4 AM PST SUNDAY FOR COEUR D`ALENE               
     AREA.                                                                      
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM PST SUNDAY FOR LEWIS AND               
     SOUTHERN NEZ PERCE COUNTIES...LEWISTON AREA.                               
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 4 AM PST SUNDAY FOR CENTRAL PANHANDLE           
     MOUNTAINS.                                                                 
WA...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 10 PM PST THIS EVENING FOR NORTHEAST            
     MOUNTAINS...OKANOGAN HIGHLANDS...OKANOGAN VALLEY.                          
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 10 AM PST SUNDAY FOR NORTHEAST BLUE             
     MOUNTAINS.                                                                 
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 10 AM PST SUNDAY FOR LOWER GARFIELD             
     AND ASOTIN COUNTIES...WASHINGTON PALOUSE.                                  
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 4 AM PST SUNDAY FOR SPOKANE AREA...             
     UPPER COLUMBIA BASIN.                                                      
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM PST THIS EVENING FOR MOSES             
     LAKE AREA.                                                                 
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM PST THIS EVENING FOR                   
     WENATCHEE AREA.                                                            
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 4 AM PST SUNDAY FOR EAST SLOPES                 
     NORTHERN CASCADES.                                                         
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 10 PM PST THIS EVENING FOR WATERVILLE           
     PLATEAU.                                                                   
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</pre> wa                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA                                          
318 AM CST SUN DEC 14 2008                                                      
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
08Z SFC ANLYS PLACES SFC LOW BETWEEN HSI-LNK WITH TRAILING COLD                 
FRONT ACROSS KS INTO CO.  WRMFNT EXTENDS FROM LOW INTO SRN MN AND WI            
WITH ARCTIC FRONT DRAPED ACROSS MN APPROACHING FSD.  STRONG CAA AND             
PRES RISES BEHIND SYSTEM WITH NEARLY 40F CHANGE ACROSS FRONT BETWEEN            
ONL-FNB.  SEVERAL SHORT WAVES NOTED IN SWLY FLOW AHEAD OF ROCKIES               
TROUGH...BUT GLANCING US TO THE NW WITH MUCH OF FORCING FROM                    
SIOUXLAND AREA W AND N.                                                         
.SHORT TERM...TODAY                                                             
EVOLUTION OF TEMPS/DEWPOINT...WIND AND PRECIP POTENTIAL OBVIOUSLY               
MAIN QUESTIONS TODAY.  AS IS OFTEN THE CASE WITH SYSTEMS OF THIS                
STRENGTH...MODELS ARE NOT CAPTURING TEMP GRADIENT WELL ON EITHER END            
OF THE EXTREME.  NAM AND ESPECIALLY RUC ARE DOING THE BEST AND WILL             
BE FOLLOWED.  THIS RESULTS IN WARMER TEMPS THAN PREVIOUSLY                      
ANTICIPATED AHEAD OF FROPA...WHICH SHOULD MAINLY AFFECT AREA                    
15-21Z...AND COOLER/DRIER CONDITIONS BEHIND.  WITH SHARPLY                      
INCREASING MSLP GRADIENT AND ISALLOBARIC MAX BEHIND SYSTEM...EXPECT             
WINDS TO JUST ECLIPSE SUSTAINED 30 MPH CRITERIA THIS AFTERNOON AND              
EARLY EVE SO WIND ADVY WILL BE IN EFFECT FOR SMALL PARTS OF WRN/NW              
SECTIONS.  WITH COLD AIR SURGE AND MIXED LAYER FAIRLY SHALLOW /500M/            
DO NOT EXPECT MUCH MORE THAN THAT WITH GUSTS.                                   
MODEL HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT SPITTING OUT LIGHT QPF WITH THE PASSAGE              
OF THIS SYSTEM.  HOWEVER THIS MUST BE FROM SHALLOW MOISTURE AS                  
SOUNDINGS SHOW LITTLE ABOVE 2KM.  THIS IS SOMEWHAT OF A CONCERN                 
HOWEVER BECAUSE MODELS HAVE BEEN EMPHATIC DEVELOPING THIS LOW                   
STRATUS BUT NO SIGNS YET...CIGS STILL 2500FT OR HIGHER.  CONSIDERING            
40+ DEWPOINTS ARE SURGING INTO IA...STILL EXPECT THIS TO HAPPEN BUT             
MAY TAKE LONGER THAN MODELS DEPICT.  THUS STILL HAVE CHANCE/LOW END             
LIKELY POPS...BUT THIS IS MAINLY DUE TO MEASURABLE DRIZZLE MORE THAN            
RAIN.  P-TYPE MAY CHANGE TO LIGHT FRZG RAIN OR FRZG DRZL BEHIND                 
FROPA AND THEN POSSIBLY TO LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES AS DENDRITIC MOISTURE            
INCREASES BEHIND FRONT.  DGZ WILL BE QUITE SHALLOW...NO HIGHER THAN             
1.5KM BY LATE AFTERNOON.  QPF VERY MINIMAL SO NO SIGNIFICANT                    
CONCERNS OR HEADLINES IN THAT REGARD.                                           
.LONG TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY                                           
STRONG ARCTIC FRONT TO BE NEARLY EAST OF THE AREA BY EARLY TONIGHT              
BUT PLENTY OF DETAILS TO SORT OUT AS IT PASSES. MODELS CONTINUE TO              
HINT AT A SECONDARY BAND OF PRECIP JUST BEHIND THE BOUNDARY WITH SOME           
FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING BETWEEN H750-H600. FORCING AND QPF COMBINED             
SHOULD RESULT IN A BAND OF ONE TO ONE AND ONE HALF INCH OF SNOW                 
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST DURING THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. WINDS ALREADY              
PICKING UP BY THEN...SO WILL BE LOOKING AT RATHER POOR CONDITIONS               
FOR A BRIEF TIME THERE WITH LOW VSBYS AND BLOWING SNOW. WILL NOT                
ISSUE ANY HEADLINES FOR POTENTIAL NOW GIVEN THE NUMBER OF OTHER                 
CONCERNS TODAY AND TONIGHT. THAT BEING SAID...DAY SHIFT WILL HAVE TO            
WATCH FOR POSSIBLE WINTER WEATHER CONDITIONS THERE LATER TODAY. NEXT            
CONCERN IS THE WIND CHILL FOR TONIGHT. MODELS SETTLING IN ON COLDER             
OVERNIGHT LOWS WITH H850 TEMPS BRUSHING -20C ACROSS THE FAR                     
NORTH/EURO AND EVEN COLDER/GFS. UPSTREAM READINGS OF -10F OR LOWER              
TONIGHT WHERE -20C WAS LOCATED OVER THE NORTHERN DAKOTAS LATE LAST              
NIGHT. FEEL MORE CONFIDENT WITH MINS OF NEARLY -10F ACROSS THE NORTH            
TONIGHT AND NEARING ZERO CENTRAL. WINDS WILL MIX AS THE EVENING                 
PROGRESSES WITH 30 TO 35 MPH GUSTS AND SUSTAINED 25 TO 30 MPH. THIS             
WILL PULL WIND CHILLS DOWN TO -20F OR LOWER FROM HIGHWAY 92 NORTH               
THROUGH AT LEAST 18Z MONDAY. NORTH OF HIGHWAY 20...AM EXPECTING WIND            
CHILL READINGS TO REMAIN BELOW CRITERIA MOST OF MONDAY AND WILL                 
EXTEND THE ADVISORY THERE ALL DAY. SUBSIDENCE RATHER STRONG AS                  
TONIGHT PROGRESSES...RESULTING IN CLEARING MOST AREAS AS HIGH BUILDS            
IN FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS MONDAY WILL MIX BUT DIMINISH DURING              
THE DAY AS THE RIDGE FILES THROUGH THE AREA. DAY TIME HIGHS WILL BE             
VERY COLD...ONLY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO MID TEENS. ANOTHER VERY                
COLD NIGHT IS EXPECTED MONDAY NIGHT BUT CLOUD COVER FROM APPROACHING            
SYSTEM WILL CAP DROP-OFF WEST AND SOUTH. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY                    
CONTINUES TO SHOW PRONOUNCED TROUGH OVER THE WEST COAST TONIGHT WITH            
NUMEROUS WAVES PROPAGATING EAST. MODELS HAVE BEEN ADVERTISING A                 
DECENT OVERRUNNING EVENT FOR TUESDAY FOR THE PAST TWO TO THREE DAYS.            
STRONG BAROCLINIC ZONE IN PLACE WITH QUICK MOVING H500 WAVE AND                 
MODEST MOISTURE TRANSPORT AT H850 WITH 20 TO 25KT WINDS WILL PROMOTE            
A LARGE AREA OF SNOWFALL ACROSS IOWA TUESDAY. CURRENT INDICATIONS               
ARE THAT CONVECTIVE ENHANCEMENT WILL NOT BE A MAJOR ISSUE...THOUGH              
SLIGHTLY NEG EPV VALUES ARE FORECAST. BUT EVEN WITH THAT...SNOWFALL             
RATIOS OF 17:20:1 AND MODEST LIFT IN THE SNOW GROWTH ZONE DURING THE            
DAY SHOULD HELP PRODUCE MODERATE TO POSSIBLE HEAVY SNOWFALL                     
ACCUMULATIONS BETWEEN EARLY AM HOURS SOUTHWEST...TOWARD EAST CENTRAL            
SECTIONS BY LATE AFTERNOON. MOISTURE AMOUNTS POINTING TOWARD .25 TO             
.40 MAX...SO SNOWFALL MAY BE SIGNIFICANT. THE EURO HAS BEEN MOST                
CONSISTENT WITH THIS FEATURE THE PAST TWO DAYS. WIND DOES NOT LOOK              
TO BE A MAJOR FACTOR FOR NOW...BUT MAY IMPACT BLOWING TO SOME                   
DEGREE. IF THIS ISNT ENOUGH FOR NOW ...MODELS EJECT ANOTHER SYSTEM              
TOWARD THE AREA ON THURSDAY. BY MIDWEEK THE DEEP COLD AIR MASS OVER             
THE REGION HAS BEEN DISPLACED SOMEWHAT NORTH. THIS WILL SET THE                 
STAGE FOR A MIXED EVENT ON THURSDAY. EURO IS STILL COLDER THAN THE              
GFS WHICH MAY BE SHOWING A MORE NORTHERLY BIAS WITH THE DISPLACEMENT            
OF THE COLD AIR. BOTH GFS AND EURO SUGGEST STRONG H850 MOISTURE                 
TRANSPORT WITH THE GULF PRETTY MUCH WIDE OPEN. TOO EARLY TO WORRY               
ABOUT AMOUNTS...BUT THE SOUTH MAY EXPERIENCE A FZRA/SN MIX WHILE                
CENTRAL AND AREAS NORTH APPEAR TO BE ALL SNOW. EURO A BIT MORE                  
GENEROUS ON QPF WITH .50 TO .75 FOR THE 14/00Z RUN WHILE THE GFS IS             
CLOSER TO .25 TO .50 AT 14/00Z. ONE OTHER THING TO CONSIDER IS THE              
POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTIVE PRECIP WITH THIS EVENT GIVEN THE STRENGTH              
OF THE WIND FIELD. PLENTY OF TIME TO TRACK THIS EVENT LATER...BUT               
HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BE SIGNIFICANT. INTO THE WEEKEND ANOTHER SHOT              
OF ARCTIC AIR IS EXPECTED TO DROP SOUTHEAST. GIVEN THE CURRENT MODEL            
FORECAST AIRMASS...WEEKEND MAX AND MINS WILL PROBABLY NEED MODEST               
DOWNWARD ADJUSTMENT ONCE SNOW COVER IS REESTABLISHED OVER THE AREA              
AND DEPTH BECOMES REALIZED BY REPORTS.                                          
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...14/06Z                                                              
MAIN CONCERN CONT TO BE WITH THE POTENTIAL FORMATION OF ST AND DZ.              
INIT SOUNDINGS WERE QUITE DRY AT 00Z/14 AND WILL DELAY THE ONSET OF             
IFR CONDS DUE TO THE DRYNESS TO OVERCOME.  EXPECT TO SEE A SUDDEN               
DVLPMT OF LO ST BR AND DZ OVER SERN AND NRN IA AFT 09Z OR SO.  VERY             
SLOW IMPVMT ON SUN UNTIL FROPA.  CDFNT SHUD REACH KMCW-KDSM AREA                
AROUND MID DAY AND PASS EAST OF THE TAF SITES TWD 00Z/15.  EXPECT               
MVFR CIGS POST FROPA WITH SGT WNWLY WINDS.                                      
&&                                                                              
.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
...WIND ADVY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVE /18Z-03Z/                                   
CASS-AUDUBON-CRAWFORD-CARROLL-SAC-CALHOUN-POCAHONTAS-HUMBOLDT-PALO              
ALTO-KOSSUTH-EMMET.                                                             
...WIND CHILL ADVY TONIGHT THROUGH MIDDAY MONDAY /06Z-18Z MONDAY/               
SAC-CALHOUN-WEBSTER-HAMILTON-HARDIN-GRUNDY-BLACK HAWK-CRAWFORD-                 
CARROLL-GREENE-BOONE-STORY-MARSHALL-TAMA-AUDUBON-GUTHRIE-DALLAS-                
POLK-JASPER-POWESHIEK-CASS-ADAIR-MADISON-WARREN-MARION-MAHASKA.                 
...WIND CHILL ADVY TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON /06Z-00Z                    
TUESDAY/ EMMET-KOSSUTH-WINNEBAGO-WORTH-PALO ALTO-HANCOCK-                       
CERRO GORDO-POCAHONTAS-HUMBOLDT-WRIGHT-FRANKLIN-BUTLER-BREMER.                  
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHORT TERM...BSS                                                                
LONG TERM...REV                                                                 
AVIATION...BSS                                                                  
</pre> ia                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS                                            
225 AM MST SUN DEC 14 2008                                                      
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
224 AM MST SUN DEC 14 2008                                                      
04Z WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATED POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH SLIDING              
EAST ACROSS WYOMING...WITH RUC TROP ANALYSIS INDICATING ANOTHER                 
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING INTO ARIZONA. AT THE SFC...ARCTIC COLD FRONT            
MOVING RAPIDLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS...WITH LEADING EDGE              
ALREADY THROUGH YUMA AROUND 4Z. LARGE AREA OF SUB ZERO TEMPS                    
OBSERVED ACROSS WYOMING AND NORTHWEST SOUTH DAKOTA. BOTH THE NAM AND            
GFS OVERALL INITIALIZED DECENT ACROSS THE AREA...ALTHOUGH THERE WERE            
VARIOUS ERRORS IN THE H7 AND H85 THERMAL FIELD WITH RESPECT TO THE              
FRONT.                                                                          
PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN WILL BE WINDS...TEMPS AND SNOWFALL CHANCES             
BEHIND TODAYS ARCTIC FRONT...FOLLOWED BY SNOW CHANCES MONDAY AND                
TUESDAY.                                                                        
TODAY-TONIGHT...MODELS STILL SEEM DIVIDED ON PRECIP CHANCES TODAY               
AND ARE DIVIDED BETWEEN THE FAIRLY DRY NAM AND WETTER GFS. FORCING              
AND INSTABILITY PARAMETERS ALSO REMAIN SIMILAR TO LAST NIGHTS RUN               
WITH PRIMARY FORCING FOR ASCENT BEING STRONG BAND OF FRONTOGENESIS              
MAINLY BETWEEN H7-H6. H5-H3 DIV Q FIELDS SUGGEST SOME UPPER LEVEL               
FORCING FOR ASCENT AS 145KT JET STREAK MOVES INTO SW KANSAS. IT                 
APPEARS THE PROBLEM WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE WHETHER OR NOT FORCING             
WILL BE SUFFICENT TO SATURATE LAYER ABOVE THE FRONTAL ZONE WHICH                
WOULD ALLOW AVAILABLE CONDITIONAL INSTABILITY TO BE RELEASED. IF                
FORCING IS NOT SUFFICENT (AS NAM SUGGESTS) PRECIP PROCESSES WILL                
LIKELY BE VERY SHALLOW AND RESULTING PRECIP MORE OF THE FLURRY                  
VARIETY. IF INSTABILITY IS REALIZED...WOULD EXPECT A DECENT BAND OF             
SNOW TO DEVELOP ALONG AXIS OF FRONTOGENESIS. THE FAST MOVEMENT OF               
THE FRONTAL ZONE...BRIEF WINDOW OF DEEP LAYER ASCENT...AND TIME IT              
WILL TAKE TO SATURATE LEVEL IMMEDIATELY ABOVE FRONTAL ZONE WILL                 
LIKELY LIMIT ANY ACCUMULATIONS EVEN UNDER BEST CIRCUMSTANCES. WELL              
CONTINUE TO MONITOR TRENDS BEFORE ISSUING FORECAST BUT FOR THE TIME             
BEING PLAN TO LIMIT HIGHER POPS/QPF TO WESTERN ZONES AS A COMPROMISE            
BETWEEN AVAILABLE MODEL SOLUTIONS. SUBSIDENCE SHOULD OVERSPREAD THE             
ENTIRE AREA BY 00Z...BRINGING AN END TO ANY PRECIP CHANCES. 06Z NAM             
NOW TRENDING TOWARDS THE GFS...WITH LATEST PRECIP FIELDS LINING UP              
WELL WITH EXPECTED FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING. PLAN ON UPPING POPS TO              
THE 40-60 PERCENT RANGE WITH HIGHEST POPS AND AMOUNTS ACROSS YUMA               
COUNTY. AMOUNTS IN THE 1-2 INCH RANGE LOOK REASONABLE FOR NOW.                  
OTHER CONCERN FOR THE PERIOD WILL BE WINDS AND WIND CHILLS AS COLD              
AIR MOVES INTO THE AREA. CURRENT WIND CHILLS ALREADY NEAR -10 AT                
YMA...AND WITH STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION IN PLACE DOUBT THAT                    
CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE MUCH THROUGH THE DAY. WILL LIKELY SEE WIND              
CHILL ADVISORY CRITERIA CONTINUING THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING UNTIL              
WINDS DECOUPLE...BUT WITH STRENGTH OF THE COLD AIR THINK THERE IS               
POTENTIAL FOR RAPID DECOUPLING SO OVERALL CONFIDENCE IN WIND                    
ADVISORY CRITERIA TONIGHT IS LOW. WITH WIND CHILLS BELOW AT -15F AND            
SOME BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW WILL ISSUE A SMALL WINTER WX ADVISORY            
FOR YUMA COUNTY. WINDS WILL DEFINITELY BE STRONG AROUND 12Z...WITH              
SEVERAL SPOTS LIKELY AT OR JUST BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA. BASED ON               
PATTERN THINK THIS WILL BE CONFINED TO A BRIEF PERIOD AS STRONGEST              
PRESSURE RISES MOVE THROUGH THE AREA. AT THIS TIME WILL NOT ISSUE               
ANY KIND OF HIGHLIGHT...BUT WILL MONITOR THE WINDS AND MAKE A FINAL             
CALL BY SUNRISE.                                                                
MONDAY...SHORT WAVE RIDGING WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH            
THE DAY...WITH MAIN CONCERN BEING TEMPS. WITH STRONG WESTERLY JET               
OVERHEAD...AM A LITTLE CONCERNED THAT TEMPS WILL REALLY STRUGGLE TO             
WARM MUCH...ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE OBSERVED MAGNITUDE OF THE COLD AIR             
UPSTREAM.                                                                       
MONDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY MORNING...WHILE THE SHORT RANGE MODELS WERE IN           
AGREEMENT LAST NIGHT WITH THIS PERIOD...NAM AND GFS HAVE STARTED TO             
DIVERGE WITH RESPECT TO THE HANDLING OF THE NEXT SYSTEM. NAM                    
APPEARS TO BE THE OUTLIER AT THIS TIME WITH SLOWER...MORE AGGRESSIVE            
SOLUTION AND FOR THE TIME BEING WILL TREND FORECAST TOWARDS THE GFS             
WHICH IS SUPPORTED BY THE CANADIAN...UKMET AND SREF MEAN. STRONG WAA            
WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE CWA H3 JET AXIS SHIFTS TO THE NORTH.                    
DIFFERENTIAL TEMP ADVECTION APPEARS SUFFICENT TO RESULT IN SOME                 
INSTABILITY OVERNIGHT...BUT AM CONCERNED ABOUT QUALITY OF MOISTURE              
RETURN ESPECIALLY TO THE NORTH OF SUCH A STRONG COLD FRONT. CONCERNS            
ASIDE...ENOUGH CONSENSUS IN THE MODELS TO UP CHANCES IN THE EASTERN             
CWA. ACTUALLY MAY HAVE SOME PRECIP TYPE CONCERNS AS GFS SUGGESTING A            
WARM LAYER DEVELOPS ACRS THE SOUTHWEST CWA TUESDAY MORNING. COULD               
SEE SNOW TRANSITION TO -FZDZ BEFORE ENDING BUT CURRENT DATA SUGGESTS            
PRECIP WILL END BEFORE THIS LAYER DEVELOPS. JET STREAK WILL CONTINUE            
TO LINGER TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA WITH CWA COMING UNDER THE                    
INFLUENCE OF ENTRANCE REGION OVERNIGHT. GFS INDICATING A FAIRLY                 
STRONG RESPONSE TO THIS FEATURE...WITH A DEEP FRONTOGENETICAL                   
CIRCULATION (H8-H6) DEVELOPING ACROSS THE CWA. WILL ADD SOME LOW                
POPS TO THE PERIOD FOR NOW...BUT WITH ALL THE UNCERTAINTY BEFORE                
THIS POINT DO NOT WANT TO PLACE TO MUCH EMPHASIS ON THIS ONE MODEL              
RUN.                                                                            
WED-SAT...NO CHANGES PLANNED AT THIS TIME.                                      
JRM                                                                             
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...FOR THE 06Z TAFS...COLD FRONT IS MOVING QUICKLY ACROSS              
THE HIGH PLAINS. EXPECT FRONTAL PASSAGE EARLY IN THE FORECAST                   
PERIOD WITH DETERIORATING CONDITIONS THROUGH THE NIGHT. HAVE                    
INDICATED MVFR CONDITIONS AT KGLD/KMCK WITH LIGHT SNOW AROUND                   
10Z-12Z...BUT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE CONDITIONS BRIEFLY                  
DROP TO IFR. NORTH WINDS WITH FRONT WILL BE NORTH AT 20-35 KNOTS                
WITH GUSTS TO 40 KNOTS.                                                         
&&                                                                              
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
KS...NONE.                                                                      
NE...NONE.                                                                      
CO...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM MST THIS AFTERNOON FOR COZ090.          
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</pre> ks                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE                                               
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV                                           
1018 PM PST SAT DEC 13 2008                                                     
.SYNOPSIS...A SERIES OF STORM SYSTEMS WILL AFFECT THE DESERT                    
SOUTHWEST THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL RESULT IN MUCH COLDER            
TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH A CHANCE FOR RAIN AND SNOW. THE SNOW LEVEL              
WILL BE UNUSUALLY LOW AFTER SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH SNOW POTENTIALLY                
DOWN TO THE DESERT FLOORS.                                                      
&&                                                                              
.UPDATE...WIND ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN ALLOWED TO EXPIRE.                          
.905 PM PST UPDATE...COLD FRONT APPEARS TO BE ACROSS THE EASTERN                
HALF OF MOHAVE COUNTY AS OF 9 PM PST. ISOLATED CONVECTION FORMED                
EARLIER ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY...BUT HAS ENDED. SECONDARY                   
MOISTURE BOUNDARY ACROSS SOUTHEAST INYO COUNTY THROUGH SOUTHERN                 
NEVADA WILL BE SHIFTING EAST OVERNIGHT AND WILL PRODUCE ISOLATED                
SHOWERS MAINLY EAST OF LAS VEGAS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT.            
MAIN CONCERN FOR TONIGHT CONTINUES TO BE THE WIND. CURRENT WIND                 
ADVISORIES EXPIRE AS OF 10 PM PST AND ATTM THAT LOOKS TO BE A GOOD              
AS THE FRONT EXITS THE AREA. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR. WILL BE                  
UPDATING ZONES LATER TO REMOVE WIND ADVISORIES AND TO REMOVE EVENING            
WORDING...BUT OVERALL CURRENT SHORT TERM FORECAST ON TRACK AND NO               
FURTHER UPDATES PLANNED FOR TONIGHT.                                            
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...FOR MCCARRAN...WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE AND                  
SLOWLY TURN MORE WESTERLY BEFORE BECOMING VARIABLE AFT 08Z. CIGS                
AROUND 8K FEET UNTIL 08Z THEN BCMG SCT CLOUD DECKS THROUGH SUNDAY.              
THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR CIGS BELOW 5K FEET AND             
SHOWERS TO THE AREA BY 12Z MONDAY WITH MIXED RAIN/SNOW POSSIBLE...              
LOWERING VSBY BLO 3SM THROUGH 18Z MONDAY. ANOTHER SYSTEM MAY AFFECT             
THE AREA WEDNESDAY WITH ANOTHER CHANCE FOR LOW CIGS AND ANOTHER                 
CHANCE FOR MIXED RAIN/SNOW.                                                     
FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA...NORTHWEST ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST             
CALIFORNIA...WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE ACROSS THE AREA                    
OVERNIGHT WITH GENERALLY NORTH WINDS LESS THAN 15KT AFT 08Z SUNDAY.             
CIGS NEAR 8K FEET WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS...MAINLY MORMON MESA TO                 
KLAS TO BAKER LINE SOUTH...THROUGH 08Z SUNDAY THEN BECOMING SCT                 
CLOUD DECKS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF SUNDAY. WINDS WILL BECOMING                
SOUTHWEST AFTER 00Z MONDAY AS NEXT SYSTEM BEGINS TO APPROACH THE                
AREA WHICH WILL BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR CIGS BELOW 5K FEET AND                  
SHOWERS TO THE AREA LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. MOUNTAIN             
OBSCURATIONS ONCE AGAIN LIKELY WITH SNOW LEVELS NEAR THE DESERT                 
FLOORS. ANOTHER SYSTEM LOOKS TO MOVE IN WEDNESDAY WITH ANOTHER                  
CHANCE FOR LOW CIGS AND MIXED RAIN/SNOW IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS.                
&&                                                                              
.608 PM PST UPDATE...LIGHT SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS              
LINCOLN COUNTY THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS...BUT NO ADDITIONAL              
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS IS EXPECTED...THUS HAVE ALLOWED THE SNOW ADVISORY            
TO EXPIRE. COLD FRONT SHIFTING SOUTH SLIGHT FASTER THAN EARLIER                 
THOUGHT WITH FRONT CROSSING OVER THE KLAS VALLEY AS OF 02Z. WINDS               
REMAIN A PROBLEM ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE CWA WITH THE                
ADVISORIES STILL IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS EVENING. &&                             
.420 PM PST DISCUSSION...PREFRONTAL WINDS WERE STRONG ACROSS THE                
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA TODAY BUT THE LATEST OBSERVATIONS            
WERE INDICATING A SLIGHT DECREASING TREND. HIGH DOWNSLOPE WINDS ON              
THE EAST SLOPES OF THE SPRING MOUNTAINS DECREASED AFTER 21Z AND WILL            
CONTINUE TO DIMINISH THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A WIND ADVISORY                
WILL REPLACE HIGH WIND WARNINGS FOR THE SPRING MOUNTAINS...WESTERN              
SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY AND THE EASTERN SIERRA SLOPES. THE SURFACE                
PRESSURE GRADIENT WAS STILL 14-15 MB BETWEEN LAX AND LAS BUT THE                
COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH CLARK COUNTY BY 03Z AND WINDS WILL                 
DIMINISH BEHIND IT. THE 18Z NAM AND LATEST RUC INDICATE THE FRONT               
WILL WASH OUT AS IT MOVES THROUGH WITH NO STRONG PUSH OF NORTH WINDS            
MAKING IT INTO FAR SOUTHERN NEVADA. SNOW SHOWERS OVER LINCOLN COUNTY            
SHOULD DIMINISH AFTER 02Z BEHIND THE FRONT AND ONLY SCATTERED                   
SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED OVER NORTHERN MOHAVE COUNTY. THE BROAD UPPER               
LOW SETTLES IN AND ZONAL FLOW SHOULD KEEP THE AREA MAINLY DRY AND               
COLD SUNDAY BEFORE A SUBSTANTIAL PLUME OF MOISTURE MOVES ACROSS                 
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA INTO ARIZONA MONDAY. THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE               
PLUME WILL BE PULLED ACROSS SOUTHERN NEVADA AND THE LATEST GFS AND              
ECMWF ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE TRACK OF THE UPPER LOW AND                 
MOISTURE. THE SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL BRING SLIGHT WARMING ALOFT BUT                
SNOW LEVELS WILL STILL BE 2500-3000 FEET OVER SOUTHERN NEVADA MONDAY            
MORNING. HOWEVER...IT LOOKS LIKE THE MOISTURE SHOT WILL BE RATHER               
QUICK...BETWEEN 12Z AND 18Z FOR THE VALLEYS. THE MOUNTAINS WILL SEE             
MORE PROLONGED OROGRAPHICALLY ENHANCED PRECIP. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS               
WHICH WOULD WARRANT A WATCH SHOULD BE CONFINED TO TERRAIN ABOVE 4000            
FEET. HOWEVER...A FEW INCHES OF SNOW ACCUMULATION...ESPECIALLY ON               
GRASSY SURFACES...ALONG THE FOOTHILLS AROUND THE LAS VEGAS VALLEY               
STILL LOOK LIKE A DECENT BET. THE GFS BUFR FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW A            
WARMER BOUNDARY LAYER WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS THAN THE NAM                         
BUFR...INDICATING HIGHER WET BULB ZEROS AND SNOW LEVELS CLOSER TO               
3000 FEET. PRECIPITATION WILL TAPER OFF MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING            
AS THE MOISTURE PLUME MOVES ENTIRELY INTO ARIZONA.                              
.LONG TERM...AN UPPER LOW WILL MOVE SOUTHWARD INTO NORCAL BY TUESDAY            
AFTERNOON WITH ADDITIONAL RIPPLES OF ENERGY MOVING THROUGH THE BASE             
OF THE UPPER TROUGH WHICH WILL BE RIGHT ACROSS SOCAL/SOUTHERN NEVADA            
AND NORTHERN AZ. BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON THE LEFT REAR QUAD A 130 KT+              
JETSTREAK WILL BE ACROSS THE MOJAVE DESERT ACCOMPANIED BY A PLUME OF            
PACIFIC MOISTURE. THIS SHOULD PUT THE AREA IN A FAVORABLE REGION TO             
SEE ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. AS THE                
UPPER LOW SINKS FURTHER SOUTH TO NEAR POINT CONCEPTION BY WEDNESDAY             
AFTERNOON THE PROXIMITY OF THE UPPER LOW AS WELL AS A PLUME OF                  
PACIFIC MOISTURE STREAMING INTO THE AREA SHOULD HELP TO INCREASE THE            
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS TO OCCUR...AND POSSIBLY MORE A STEADIER                     
STRATIFORM TYPE PRECIPITATION EVENT IN THE MOJAVE DESERT. WITH                  
PLENTY OF CHILL AIR ACROSS THE REGION SNOW LEVELS WILL REMAIN QUITE             
LOW ALLOWING FOR SNOW TO FALL IN AREAS THAT DO NOT OFTEN SEE IT. ONE            
ISSUE REMAINS JUST HOW FAR NORTHWEST THE MAIN MOISTURE PLUME GETS AS            
NORTHWEST PARTS OF THE CWFA MAY NOT SEE MUCH IF ANY PRECIP. IN LAS              
VEGAS...THERE COULD BE THE POTENTIAL ONCE AGAIN FOR SNOW OR A                   
RAIN/SNOW MIX ON WEDNESDAY AS MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST                  
P-TYPE COULD BE AN ISSUE. AGAIN THE ISSUE OF EVAPORATIONAL COOLING              
COULD COME INTO PLAY AS WELL ENHANCING THE PROSPECTS FOR SNOW OR A              
RAIN/SNOW MIX. WINTER WEATHER PRODUCTS MAY BE NEEDED FOR PARTS OF               
THE AREA AS THE MOISTURE SUPPLY WILL BE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT                       
ACCUMULATING SNOW IN AT LEAST THE HIGHER PORTIONS OF THE MOJAVE                 
DESERT. BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT THE SYSTEM FINALLY EXITS TO THE EAST AND             
A DRIER NORTHWEST FLOW TAKES OVER FOR THURSDAY. THE GENERAL                     
CONSENSUS FROM THE OPERATIONAL MODELS AND GFS ENSEMBLES WERE IN                 
DECENT AGREEMENT TO SUPPORT LOWERING POPS SHARPLY AND BRIGHTENING               
SKIES SOME BUT IT SHOULD STILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL WITH A SUBTLE                
RISE IN TEMPS. NEVERTHELESS WE SHOULD CATCH A BREAK FROM THE CLOUDS             
AND SHOWERS LATER IN THE WEEK. ANOTHER SYSTEM MAY DROP DOWN FROM THE            
NORTH BY NEXT WEEKEND BUT MODELS REMAIN IN DISAGREEMENT WITH JUST               
HOW FAR SOUTH IT GETS OR WHEN IT MAY EVEN SHOW UP.                              
&&                                                                              
.VEF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
NV...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH LATE                     
     MONDAY NIGHT FOR NVZ018-019.                                               
AZ...NONE.                                                                      
CA...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
JENSEN/ADAIR/STACHELSKI                                                         
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/LASVEGAS                                                     
</pre> nv                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC                                             
500 AM EST SUN DEC 14 2008                                                      
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
RETURN FLOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE RECENTLY DEPARTED SURFACE HIGH              
WILL INCREASE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA TODAY            
AND TONIGHT...RESULTING IN AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER...AND A CHANCE            
FOR LIGHT RAIN BY MONDAY.                                                       
&&                                                                              
.NEAR TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/...                                               
AS OF 145 AM SUNDAY...                                                          
SFC ANALYSIS THIS MORNING SHOWED 1035 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED JUST            
OFFSHORE THE MID-ATLANTIC...WITH A SFC RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING                     
SOUTHWEST INTO THE CAROLINAS. ALOFT...THE LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RUC             
MODEL DATA SHOW WSW FLOW ALOFT OVER THE CAROLINAS AND MID-ATLANTIC.             
TODAY:                                                                          
EXTENSIVE MID/UPPER LEVEL CLOUD COVER OVER THE AREA WILL MOVE EAST              
OF CENTRAL NC BY SUNRISE. HOWEVER...EXTENSIVE MID/UPPER LEVEL CLOUD             
COVER REMAINS UPSTREAM OVER TX AND THE DEEP SOUTH...AND WITH WSW                
FLOW ALOFT...EXPECT MORE MID/UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS TO MOVE INTO THE                
AREA BY LATE MORNING TO EARLY AFTERNOON. WARM ADVECTION REALLY                  
BEGINS TO KICK IN AFTER SUNRISE TODAY AS THE SFC HIGH MOVES FURTHER             
OFFSHORE AND LOW LEVEL FLOW BECOMES SOUTHERLY/SOUTHEASTERLY. THIS               
WILL RESULT IN A RAPID INCREASE IN LOW STRATUS ACROSS PORTIONS OF               
THE AREA...ESPECIALLY IN THE WESTERN PIEDMONT ADJACENT TO THE                   
FOOTHILLS WHERE UPSLOPE FLOW WILL SERVE TO LOCALLY ENHANCE LIFT.                
THUS...EXPECT OVERCAST CONDITIONS IN THE WESTERN PIEDMONT BY MID                
MORNING TO NOON...WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ELSEWHERE DUE TO A                   
COMBINATION OF SCT/BKN LOW STRATUS AND TRANSIENT MID/UPPER LEVEL                
CLOUD COVER. W/REGARD TO POPS...EVEN THOUGH BOTH THE GFS/NAM CRANK              
OUT A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH ACROSS THE FAR WESTERN PIEDMONT                 
BETWEEN 18-00Z (GFS ACTUALLY CRANKS OUT A TENTH OF AN INCH IN THE               
TRIAD)...STILL THINK THAT SATURATION SHOULD BE TOO SHALLOW FOR THE              
EFFICIENT PRODUCTION OF PRECIPITATION VIA COLLISION/COALESCENCE...              
WHICH WOULD ARGUE FOR NO MORE THAN DRIZZLE OR A FEW SPRINKLES DURING            
THE AFTERNOON. A CAVEAT TO THIS IS THAT GFS/NAM FCST SOUNDINGS SHOW             
LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASING TO 35-40 KT BY MID/LATE                     
AFTERNOON...AND THIS MAY BE STRONG ENOUGH TO ALLOW SOME LIGHT RAIN              
TO DEVELOP ADJACENT TO THE FOOTHILLS (I.E. NEAR THE TRIAD). IF THIS             
DID OCCUR...THE TRIAD COULD SEE A FEW HUNDREDTHS...ALTHOUGH THE BEST            
CHANCE FOR MEASURABLE RAIN WOULD STILL BE FURTHER WEST TOWARD                   
STATESVILLE AND HICKORY. WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION ONLY PATCHY                   
DRIZZLE THIS AFTERNOON IN THE FAR WESTERN PIEDMONT. HIGH TEMPS TODAY            
SOMEWHAT DIFFICULT WITH STRENGTHENING WARM ADVECTION AND VARIABLE               
CLOUD COVER OVER PORTIONS OF THE AREA. THE LOWEST TEMPS ARE EXPECTED            
IN THE TRIAD/WESTERN PIEDMONT WHERE THICKNESSES ARE LOWEST AND LOW              
CLOUD COVER SHOULD BE QUITE PERVASIVE...AND WILL SHOW HIGHS IN THE              
MID 40S IN THAT AREA. ELSEWHERE...EXPECT HIGHS TO MAKE IT INTO THE              
50S...WITH TEMPS AS HIGH AS 58-62F IN THE SE COASTAL PLAIN.                     
TONIGHT:                                                                        
EXPECT MOSTLY CLOUDY TO OVERCAST CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT             
AS SCATTERED TO OVERCAST LOW STRATUS ASSOC/W WARM ADVECTION                     
PERSISTS...AND MID/UPPER LEVEL CLOUD COVER STREAMS INTO THE AREA VIA            
WSW/SW FLOW ALOFT. AGAIN...THE OVERCAST LOW STRATUS SHOULD REMAIN               
CONFINED PRIMARILY TO THE FAR WESTERN PIEDMONT...WITH SCATTERED TO              
BROKEN LOW STRATUS ELSEWHERE. BASED ON THE REASONING MENTIONED IN               
THE `TODAY` DISCUSSION...WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION ONLY PATCHY                   
DRIZZLE IN THE FAR WESTERN PIEDMONT...WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF                   
DRIZZLE EXTENDING EAST TOWARD THE TRIANGLE/FAY AREA THROUGH SUNRISE.            
ALTHOUGH NO MEASURABLE PRECIP IS EXPECTED...A HUNDREDTH OR TWO                  
CANNOT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT IN THE TRIAD. WITH EXTENSIVE CLOUD               
COVER...IN ADDITION TO ONGOING WARM ADVECTION...EXPECT RELATIVELY               
MILD LOWS TONIGHT...RANGING FROM THE LOWER/MID 40S IN THE TRIAD TO              
THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S IN THE EAST/SE COASTAL PLAIN. -VINCENT               
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...                                 
AS OF 305 AM SUNDAY...                                                          
UPPER FLOW DURING THIS PERIOD IS A GENERAL W TO SW FLOW AT MID AND              
UPPER LEVELS WITH THE POLAR JET CONFINE NORTH OF THE AREA AND                   
CENTRAL NC ON THE PERIPHERY OF THE STORM TRACK TO THE NORTH. MAIN               
WEATHER FEATURE THIS PERIOD WILL BE A COLD FRONT THAT MOVES INTO THE            
APPALACHIANS ON MON NIGHT. LATEST NAM/GFS/SREF GUIDANCE IS                      
CONSISTENT IN BRINGING THE FRONT ACROSS CENTRAL NC AROUND DAYBREAK              
ON TUESDAY AND THEN STALLING IT ACROSS SOUTHERN NC ON TUESDAY AFTN              
AND TUESDAY NIGHT BEFORE LIFTING IT RAPIDLY NORTH ON WEDNESDAY.                 
MAINLY OVERCAST SKIES ARE EXPECTED ON MONDAY WITH A SOUTHERLY FLOW              
AND ISENTROPIC LIFT PRODUCING SOME SPOTTY LIGHT RAIN. CHANCES OF                
RAIN INCREASES LATE IN THE DAY AS BOTH THE NAM/GFS SHOW A SHORT WAVE            
RIDING ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS TOWARD SUNSET.              
WILL INCLUDE LOW CHANCE POPS IN THE W MON AND SLIGHT CHC IN THE                 
EAST. EVEN WITH CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS A SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL DRIVE             
WARMER TEMPS INTO THE AREA. HIGH TEMPS ON MON WILL RANGE IN THE                 
LOWER 60S IN THE TRIAD TO LOWER 70S ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COASTAL                 
PLAIN. TEMPS SHOULD NOT FALL MUCH ON MONDAY NIGHT WITH MAINLY CLOUDY            
SKIES AND A LIGHT BUT STEADY SOUTHERLY WIND. THE COLD FRONT MOVES               
INTO THE TRIAD AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT BUT RECENT STUDIES INDICATE THAT             
LOW TEMPS ARE USUALLY WARMER THEN EXPECTED WITH NOCTURNAL COLD                  
FRONTAL PASSAGES. LOW TEMPS WILL RANGE IN THE LOWER 50S IN THE                  
TRIAD TO UPPER 50S IN THE SOUTHERN COASTAL PLAIN. THE COLD FRONT                
WILL PROVIDE AN ADDITIONAL FOCUS FOR PRECIPITATION ON MONDAY NIGHT.             
INCREASED POPS TO NEAR 50 IN THE TRIAD TO AROUND 30 PERCENT IN THE              
SOUTHERN COASTAL PLAIN WHERE UPPER SUPPORT IS WEAKER.                           
THE COLD AIR BEHIND THE FRONT IS RATHER SHALLOW AND THERE IS NOT A              
GREAT SOUTHWARD PUSH WITH THE COLD AIR AS THE PARENT HIGH IS                    
TRANSIENT AND WEAKENS WITH TIME. THE BULK OF THE COLD AIR REMAINS               
NORTH OF US 64...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE VA/NC BORDER. WHILE THE LOW                
LEVELS COOL NOTICEABLY...A SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW CONTINUES JUST A FEW              
THOUSAND FEET RESULTING IN A FAIR AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER AND A CHANCE            
OF LIGHT RAIN...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF FORECAST                 
AREA.                                                                           
WILL INCLUDE A NON DIURNAL TEMP CURVE ON TUESDAY AS COLD AIR MOVES              
INTO THE NORTHERN PORTION OF FORECAST AREA AS TEMPS REMAIN STEADY OR            
FALL SLIGHTLY ON TUES. HIGH TEMPS WILL RANGE IN THE LOWER 50S NEAR              
THE VA BORDER TO MID 60S ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PIEDMONT AND SOUTHERN              
COASTAL PLAIN. MAINLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY NIGHT             
WITH LOWS RANGING IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S. THE COLD FRONT WILL LIFT             
NORTH ON WEDNESDAY AND TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND INTO THE LOWER 60S             
TO AROUND 70 DEGREES. -BLAES                                                    
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...                                       
AS OF 325 PM...                                                                 
RIDGE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST DOMINATES THE WEATHER THROUGH THIS PERIOD            
WITH A SW FLOW ALOFT. HPC GUIDE NOTES THAT THE GFS APPEARS TOO FAST             
IN BRINING ANOTHER SYSTEM INTO THE OHIO VALLEY AND APPALACHIANS ON              
FRI/SAT...THEY PREFER A SLOWER MORE ECMWF LIKE SOLUTION.                        
THE RESULT WILL BE TEMPS THAT AVERAGE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL DURING              
MOST OF THE PERIOD. FRONTAL PASSAGE EXPECTED LATE FRIDAY OR EARLY               
SATURDAY. LINGERING LOW CHC POPS WILL CONTINUE EARLY ON THURSDAY                
WITH NO POPS INCLUDED ON FRI AND SAT. TRENDS SUGGEST THAT THE COLD              
AIR SURGE BEHIND THIS FRONT MAY BE COLDER THEN CURRENT FORECAST BUT             
WILL HOLD OFF MAKING ANY SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO TEMP FORECAST.                  
-BLAES                                                                          
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...                                      
AS OF 500 AM SUNDAY...                                                          
12Z SUN THROUGH 12Z MON:                                                        
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY/MID MORNING WITH ONLY                
TRANSIENT MID/UPPER LEVEL CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE AREA. HOWEVER...BY             
MID MORNING...STRENGTHENING WARM ADVECTION AND LOW LEVEL                        
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL ALLOW LOW STRATUS TO QUICKLY DEVELOP ACROSS             
THE AREA...PREDOMINATELY IN THE FAR WESTERN PIEDMONT/TRIAD AREA.                
EXPECT MVFR/IFR CEILINGS TO DEVELOP BY 14-17Z AT THE KINT/KGSO TAF              
SITES...WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF PRIMARILY MVFR CEILINGS ELSEWHERE.              
LIFR CEILINGS CANNOT BE RULED OUT AT THE KINT/KGSO TAF SITES LATE               
THIS MORNING THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD. WITH LOW LEVEL            
SOUTHERLY FLOW FURTHER STRENGTHENING TONIGHT...WE WILL LIKELY SEE A             
THREAT OF LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR AFTER SUNSET DUE TO EXCELLENT                    
DIRECTIONAL/SPEED SHEAR IN THE LOWEST 2 KFT. THE THREAT OF LLWS WILL            
BE MOST PRONOUNCED AT THE KINT/KGSO TAF SITES WHERE FCST SOUNDINGS              
SHOW A STRONG INVERSION/STABLE LAYER IN THE LOWEST FEW KFT.                     
ELSEWHERE...THE LLWS THREAT IS NOT AS CLEAR...BUT THE IMPORTANT                 
THING TO REMEMBER IS THAT IT CANNOT BE RULED OUT...AND THE THREAT               
WILL ULTIMATELY DEPEND ON HOW MUCH MIXING IS PRESENT IN THE LOWEST              
FEW KFT AT THE KRDU/KFAY/KRWI TAF SITES.                                        
MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY:                                                        
ADVERSE AVIATION CONDITIONS IN MVFR/IFR CEILINGS SHOULD PERSIST                 
MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES AND STALLS JUST               
WEST OF THE AREA. THE THREAT OF LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR (PRIMARILY AT              
KINT/KGSO) SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST SUNRISE MON MORNING...               
ABATING BY LATE MORNING OR EARLY MON AFTERNOON WHEN FCST SOUNDINGS              
SHOW ENOUGH MIXING TO END THE THREAT. DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH WE MIX              
MON AFTERNOON...WE COULD SEE RATHER BREEZY CONDITIONS...WITH                    
SOUTH/SW WINDS SUSTAINED AT 10-20 MPH GUSTING UP TO 30 MPH...BASED              
ON FCST SOUNDINGS AND THE EXPECTED STRENGTH OF LOW LEVEL FLOW. ISOLD            
SHOWER ACTIVITY CANNOT BE RULED OUT MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY.           
UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.              
SW FLOW ALOFT WILL PERSIST...WHICH WILL ADVECT MID/UPPER LEVEL                  
MOISTURE INTO THE REGION. IN THE LOWER LEVELS...A COLD FRONT WILL               
MOVE SLUGGISHLY SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE REGION CAUSING A THREAT OF                
MVFR/IFR CEILINGS AND/OR VISIBILITY IN RAIN. -VINCENT                           
&&                                                                              
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
NONE.                                                                           
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SYNOPSIS...VINCENT                                                              
NEAR TERM...VINCENT                                                             
SHORT TERM...BLAES                                                              
LONG TERM...BLAES                                                               
AVIATION...VINCENT                                                              
</pre> nc                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL                                         
1045 AM EST SUN DEC 14 2008                                                     
.SYNOPSIS/UPDATE...                                                             
15Z WATER VAPOR AND H4 RUC ANALYSIS SHOWS GENERAL LONGWAVE                      
TROUGHING ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS THIS MORNING WITH LONGWAVE                   
RIDGING ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD. EMBEDDED WITHIN THE MAIN WESTERN            
TROUGH WE FIND A SERIES OF STRONG MID-LEVEL IMPULSES EJECTING OUT OF            
THE FOUR-CORNERS REGION AND INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS/UPPER MIDWEST.              
ASSOCIATED WITH THE LEADING IMPULSE WE ARE FINDING A POTENT AREA OF             
LOW PRESSURE CURRENTLY OVER SOUTHERN MINNESOTA. IMPRESSIVE                      
TEMPERATURE GRADIENT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW ACROSS THE UPPER                  
MIDWEST. SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA CURRENTLY RISING THROUGH THE LOWER 40S             
ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE SYSTEM WHILE WEST-CENTRAL PORTION OF THE             
STATE ARE SEEING TEMPERATURES DROP BELOW ZERO WITH STRONG NORTH FLOW            
AND BLIZZARD CONDITIONS UNDERWAY.                                               
CLOSER TO HOME...SOUTHERN STREAM FLOW IS RIDING NORTHEAST ACROSS                
MEXICO AND THEN ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF COAST THIS MORNING. NO LACK            
OF UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE SPREADING INTO THE SOUTHEAST WITH THIS FLOW.            
WE WILL CONTINUE TO SEE THIS PATTERN OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO WITH              
ANY SIGNIFICANT NORTHERN STREAM WEATHER REMAINING FAR TO OUR NORTH.             
AT THE SURFACE...FORECAST AREA IS LOCATED IN EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW             
BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OFF THE CAROLINA COAST AND THE SYSTEM            
ACROSS THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE COUNTRY. THIS FLOW WILL CONTINUE              
INTO TONIGHT BRINGING PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INTO THE                     
SOUTHEAST.                                                                      
LATEST 12Z KTLH SOUNDING SHOWED ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRAPPED             
UNDER 800MB RESULTING IN THE WIDESPREAD CLOUD DECK BETWEEN 5 AND 7              
KFT. ABOVE 800MB THE AIRMASS IS QUITE DRY AND STABLE. DIFFICULT TO              
SAY JUST HOW MUCH DISSIPATION OF THESE CLOUDS WE WILL SEE THROUGH               
THE DAY. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW BREAKS OF SUN INTO THE             
AFTERNOON HOURS...HOWEVER WITH THE RELATIVELY WEAKER DECEMBER SUN               
AND THE CONTINUED SUPPLY OF MOISTURE...WILL MAINTAIN A FORECAST OF              
MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE DAY. THE MOIST SOUTHEAST FLOW              
WITH SOME LIFT FROM A WEAK SOUTHERN STREAM DISTURBANCE IS RESULTING             
IN A FEW SHOWERS THIS MORNING FROM NEAR PENSACOLA TO MOBILE. NOT                
EXPECTING ANYTHING MORE THAN A FEW PASSING SPRINKLES ACROSS OUR                 
PANHANDLE ZONES INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS WITH REALLY NO IMPACT TO               
ANY OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES EXPECTED. NOT GOING TO MAKE ANY ADJUSTMENTS              
TO THE TEMPERATURE GRIDS YET...BUT IF THE CLOUDS HOLD THROUGH THE               
DAY MAY COME UP A FEW DEGREES SHORT ON HIGHS.                                   
TRAILING SURFACE BOUNDARY FROM LOW PRESSURE PASSING THROUGH THE                 
GREAT LAKES WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST INTO MONDAY. GUIDANCE              
IS UNANIMOUS IN SLOWING THIS BOUNDARY AS IT MOVES INTO THE SOUTHEAST            
AND THEN STALLING THE FRONT JUST OUTSIDE OF OUR WESTERN AND NORTHERN            
ZONES LATER MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. CAN NOT RULE OUT A FEW SHOWERS                 
DURING THIS TIME FRAME AS THE LOW LEVEL FOCUS OF THE FRONT COMBINES             
WITH THE CONTINUED SERIES OF MID-LEVEL IMPULSES RIDING THE SOUTHERN             
STREAM. HOWEVER...THESE WILL NOT BE A BIG DEAL WITH VERY LITTLE IN              
THE WAY OF ACCUMULATION AND WILL KEEP POPS LOW. CERTAINLY NOT                   
EXPECTING ENOUGH TO HAVE AN IMPACT ON THE RIVERS NEAR OR AT FLOOD               
ACROSS THE WESTERN/NORTHERN ZONES.                                              
&&                                                                              
.MARINE...                                                                      
EASTERN ZONES...WINDS AND SEAS HAVE DIMINISHED BELOW ADVISORY                   
LEVELS ACROSS THE EASTERN MARINE ZONES LATE THIS MORNING.                       
HOWEVER...SMALL CRAFT OPERATORS SHOULD CONTINUE TO EXERCISE CAUTION             
INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS BEFORE WINDS AND SEAS DIMINISH BELOW                   
HEADLINE CRITERIA MONDAY.                                                       
WESTERN ZONES...ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO CAUTIONARY                
LEVELS DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. HOWEVER...ADVISORY LEVEL SEAS ARE            
ANTICIPATED TO HOLD FOR MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY WELL                 
OFFSHORE. FOR THESE REASONS THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN            
MARINE ZONES HAS BEEN EXTENDED UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON.                   
ONCE THE ADVISORY HAS EXPIRED LATER THIS AFTERNOON...SMALL                      
CRAFT OPERATORS SHOULD CONTINUE TO EXERCISE CAUTION AS ELEVATED                 
WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO HOLD THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.                
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
12Z TLH SOUNDING MEASURED SOUTHEAST WIND WIND FROM SURFACE TO 6 KFT             
WITH CLOUD DECK AT BASE OF INVERSION AT 6KFT. THIS INVERSION SHOULD             
LOWER WITH TIME TODAY AND TONIGHT AND LOWERING CEILINGS TO MVFR                 
CRITERIA ARE FORECAST FOR TONIGHT. THIS TREND CONTINUES WITH IFR CIG            
AND VIS POSSIBLE DURING EARLY MORNING WITH GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT AFTER            
SUNRISE.                                                                        
&&                                                                              
.FIRE WX...                                                                     
MOIST EAST TO SOUTHEAST LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL KEEP RH VALUES WELL                 
ABOVE CRITICAL LEVELS THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.                            
&&                                                                              
.HYDROLOGY...                                                                   
RESIDENTS LIVING ALONG THE MANY SWOLLEN RIVERS ACROSS THE WESTERN               
AND NORTHERN FORECAST AREA SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE RIVERS AND            
LAKES AHPS WEB PAGE (HTTP://AHPS.SRH.NOAA.GOV/INDEX.PHP?WFO=TAE) FOR            
THE LATEST RIVER STAGES AND FORECASTS. THE LATEST FLOOD WARNINGS AND            
FLOOD STATEMENTS CAN ALSO BE FOUND AT THIS SITE AND ON NOAA WEATHER             
RADIO.                                                                          
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
TALLAHASSEE  66  51  74  57  76 /  10  10  20  20  20                           
PANAMA CITY  68  56  74  60  76 /  10  10  20  20  20                           
DOTHAN       63  53  69  57  75 /  10  10  30  20  20                           
ALBANY       62  51  72  54  76 /  10  10  20  20  20                           
VALDOSTA     64  51  74  55  76 /  10  10  20  20  20                           
CROSS CITY   72  52  77  55  78 /  10  10  20  20  20                           
&&                                                                              
.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
AL...NONE.                                                                      
GA...NONE.                                                                      
FL...NONE.                                                                      
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE                 
     FOLLOWING ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM APALACHICOLA TO DESTIN                
     FL OUT 20 NM...WATERS FROM APALACHICOLA TO DESTIN FL FROM                  
     20 TO 60 NM.                                                               
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SYNOPSIS/UPDATE...MROCZKA                                                       
AVIATION...GOREE                                                                
FIRE WEATHER...CAMP                                                             
</pre> fl                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS                                            
420 AM MST SUN DEC 14 2008                                                      
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 225 AM MST SUN DEC 14 2008/                         
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
224 AM MST SUN DEC 14 2008                                                      
04Z WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATED POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH SLIDING              
EAST ACROSS WYOMING...WITH RUC TROP ANALYSIS INDICATING ANOTHER                 
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING INTO ARIZONA. AT THE SFC...ARCTIC COLD FRONT            
MOVING RAPIDLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS...WITH LEADING EDGE              
ALREADY THROUGH YUMA AROUND 4Z. LARGE AREA OF SUB ZERO TEMPS                    
OBSERVED ACROSS WYOMING AND NORTHWEST SOUTH DAKOTA. BOTH THE NAM AND            
GFS OVERALL INITIALIZED DECENT ACROSS THE AREA...ALTHOUGH THERE WERE            
VARIOUS ERRORS IN THE H7 AND H85 THERMAL FIELD WITH RESPECT TO THE              
FRONT.                                                                          
PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN WILL BE WINDS...TEMPS AND SNOWFALL CHANCES             
BEHIND TODAYS ARCTIC FRONT...FOLLOWED BY SNOW CHANCES MONDAY AND                
TUESDAY.                                                                        
TODAY-TONIGHT...MODELS STILL SEEM DIVIDED ON PRECIP CHANCES TODAY               
AND ARE DIVIDED BETWEEN THE FAIRLY DRY NAM AND WETTER GFS. FORCING              
AND INSTABILITY PARAMETERS ALSO REMAIN SIMILAR TO LAST NIGHTS RUN               
WITH PRIMARY FORCING FOR ASCENT BEING STRONG BAND OF FRONTOGENESIS              
MAINLY BETWEEN H7-H6. H5-H3 DIV Q FIELDS SUGGEST SOME UPPER LEVEL               
FORCING FOR ASCENT AS 145KT JET STREAK MOVES INTO SW KANSAS. IT                 
APPEARS THE PROBLEM WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE WHETHER OR NOT FORCING             
WILL BE SUFFICENT TO SATURATE LAYER ABOVE THE FRONTAL ZONE WHICH                
WOULD ALLOW AVAILABLE CONDITIONAL INSTABILITY TO BE RELEASED. IF                
FORCING IS NOT SUFFICENT (AS NAM SUGGESTS) PRECIP PROCESSES WILL                
LIKELY BE VERY SHALLOW AND RESULTING PRECIP MORE OF THE FLURRY                  
VARIETY. IF INSTABILITY IS REALIZED...WOULD EXPECT A DECENT BAND OF             
SNOW TO DEVELOP ALONG AXIS OF FRONTOGENESIS. THE FAST MOVEMENT OF               
THE FRONTAL ZONE...BRIEF WINDOW OF DEEP LAYER ASCENT...AND TIME IT              
WILL TAKE TO SATURATE LEVEL IMMEDIATELY ABOVE FRONTAL ZONE WILL                 
LIKELY LIMIT ANY ACCUMULATIONS EVEN UNDER BEST CIRCUMSTANCES. WELL              
CONTINUE TO MONITOR TRENDS BEFORE ISSUING FORECAST BUT FOR THE TIME             
BEING PLAN TO LIMIT HIGHER POPS/QPF TO WESTERN ZONES AS A COMPROMISE            
BETWEEN AVAILABLE MODEL SOLUTIONS. SUBSIDENCE SHOULD OVERSPREAD THE             
ENTIRE AREA BY 00Z...BRINGING AN END TO ANY PRECIP CHANCES. 06Z NAM             
NOW TRENDING TOWARDS THE GFS...WITH LATEST PRECIP FIELDS LINING UP              
WELL WITH EXPECTED FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING. PLAN ON UPPING POPS TO              
THE 40-60 PERCENT RANGE WITH HIGHEST POPS AND AMOUNTS ACROSS YUMA               
COUNTY. AMOUNTS IN THE 1-2 INCH RANGE LOOK REASONABLE FOR NOW.                  
OTHER CONCERN FOR THE PERIOD WILL BE WINDS AND WIND CHILLS AS COLD              
AIR MOVES INTO THE AREA. CURRENT WIND CHILLS ALREADY NEAR -10 AT                
YMA...AND WITH STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION IN PLACE DOUBT THAT                    
CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE MUCH THROUGH THE DAY. WILL LIKELY SEE WIND              
CHILL ADVISORY CRITERIA CONTINUING THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING UNTIL              
WINDS DECOUPLE...BUT WITH STRENGTH OF THE COLD AIR THINK THERE IS               
POTENTIAL FOR RAPID DECOUPLING SO OVERALL CONFIDENCE IN WIND                    
ADVISORY CRITERIA TONIGHT IS LOW. WITH WIND CHILLS BELOW AT -15F AND            
SOME BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW WILL ISSUE A SMALL WINTER WX ADVISORY            
FOR YUMA COUNTY. WINDS WILL DEFINITELY BE STRONG AROUND 12Z...WITH              
SEVERAL SPOTS LIKELY AT OR JUST BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA. BASED ON               
PATTERN THINK THIS WILL BE CONFINED TO A BRIEF PERIOD AS STRONGEST              
PRESSURE RISES MOVE THROUGH THE AREA. AT THIS TIME WILL NOT ISSUE               
ANY KIND OF HIGHLIGHT...BUT WILL MONITOR THE WINDS AND MAKE A FINAL             
CALL BY SUNRISE.                                                                
MONDAY...SHORT WAVE RIDGING WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH            
THE DAY...WITH MAIN CONCERN BEING TEMPS. WITH STRONG WESTERLY JET               
OVERHEAD...AM A LITTLE CONCERNED THAT TEMPS WILL REALLY STRUGGLE TO             
WARM MUCH...ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE OBSERVED MAGNITUDE OF THE COLD AIR             
UPSTREAM.                                                                       
MONDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY MORNING...WHILE THE SHORT RANGE MODELS WERE IN           
AGREEMENT LAST NIGHT WITH THIS PERIOD...NAM AND GFS HAVE STARTED TO             
DIVERGE WITH RESPECT TO THE HANDLING OF THE NEXT SYSTEM. NAM                    
APPEARS TO BE THE OUTLIER AT THIS TIME WITH SLOWER...MORE AGGRESSIVE            
SOLUTION AND FOR THE TIME BEING WILL TREND FORECAST TOWARDS THE GFS             
WHICH IS SUPPORTED BY THE CANADIAN...UKMET AND SREF MEAN. STRONG WAA            
WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE CWA H3 JET AXIS SHIFTS TO THE NORTH.                    
DIFFERENTIAL TEMP ADVECTION APPEARS SUFFICENT TO RESULT IN SOME                 
INSTABILITY OVERNIGHT...BUT AM CONCERNED ABOUT QUALITY OF MOISTURE              
RETURN ESPECIALLY TO THE NORTH OF SUCH A STRONG COLD FRONT. CONCERNS            
ASIDE...ENOUGH CONSENSUS IN THE MODELS TO UP CHANCES IN THE EASTERN             
CWA. ACTUALLY MAY HAVE SOME PRECIP TYPE CONCERNS AS GFS SUGGESTING A            
WARM LAYER DEVELOPS ACRS THE SOUTHWEST CWA TUESDAY MORNING. COULD               
SEE SNOW TRANSITION TO -FZDZ BEFORE ENDING BUT CURRENT DATA SUGGESTS            
PRECIP WILL END BEFORE THIS LAYER DEVELOPS. JET STREAK WILL CONTINUE            
TO LINGER TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA WITH CWA COMING UNDER THE                    
INFLUENCE OF ENTRANCE REGION OVERNIGHT. GFS INDICATING A FAIRLY                 
STRONG RESPONSE TO THIS FEATURE...WITH A DEEP FRONTOGENETICAL                   
CIRCULATION (H8-H6) DEVELOPING ACROSS THE CWA. WILL ADD SOME LOW                
POPS TO THE PERIOD FOR NOW...BUT WITH ALL THE UNCERTAINTY BEFORE                
THIS POINT DO NOT WANT TO PLACE TO MUCH EMPHASIS ON THIS ONE MODEL              
RUN.                                                                            
WED-SAT...NO CHANGES PLANNED AT THIS TIME.                                      
JRM                                                                             
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
420 AM MST SUN DEC 14 2008                                                      
FOR THE 12Z TAFS...MVFR CIGS EXPECTED THROUGH 23Z OR SO IN                      
STRATUS AT BOTH KGLD AND KMCK. AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER 23Z CIGS                 
WILL IMPROVE TO VFR WITH SKC CONDITIONS EXPECTED. A BAND OF LIGHT               
TO POSSIBLY MODERATE SNOW IS EXPECTED SHORTLY AFTER 15Z AT BOTH                 
SITES CONTINUING THROUGH 20-21Z WITH VIS BEING REDUCED TO A FEW                 
MILES...POSSIBLY CREATING IFR CONDITIONS. WIND GUSTS OF 35KTS OR                
SO WILL CONTINUE THROUGH 20Z BEFORE SLOWLY DECREASING BELOW 15KTS               
BY 23Z AT BOTH SITES AS WELL.                                                   
07                                                                              
&&                                                                              
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
KS...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR KSZ001-002.          
NE...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM MST /2 PM CST/ THIS AFTERNOON FOR           
     NEZ079>081.                                                                
CO...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM MST THIS AFTERNOON FOR COZ091.              
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM MST THIS AFTERNOON FOR COZ090.          
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</pre> ks                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY                                             
1044 AM EST SUN DEC 14 2008                                                     
.SHORT TERM.../THE REST OF TODAY/...UPDATED                                     
WINDS CONTINUE TO INCREASE THIS MORNING WITH A TIGHTENING PRESSURE              
GRADIENT...AND WINDS ALOFT BEGINNING TO MIX DOWN TO THE SURFACE. HAVE           
ALREADY HAD SOME GUSTS APPROACHING 40 MPH. OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 45 MPH           
ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AT LEAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...AND                   
POSSIBLY EARLY EVENING. THIS COULD BRING DOWN A FEW TREES AND POWER             
LINES. INCREASED CLOUD COVER TODAY...ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTHWEST...             
WHERE AC CONTINUES TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA. LOOKING AT SATELLITE                
IMAGES AND RUC13 MOISTURE FIELDS...THINK THESE CLOUDS WILL PERSIST              
THROUGH THE DAY. ELSEWHERE...AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER CAN BE                  
EXPECTED. OTHER THAN MOSTLY CLOUDY IN THE NORTHWEST...WILL GO WITH              
PARTLY SUNNY WORDING TODAY FOR AN AVERAGE SKY COVER AS MID AND HIGH             
CLOUDS MOVE IN. TEMPS HAVE RISEN QUICKLY THIS MORNING...WITH EVEN THE           
COLDEST VALLEYS RAPIDLY REACHING THE 40S SO FAR. TWEAKED AFTERNOON              
HIGHS SOME BASED ON THE LATEST UPPER AIR DATA AND CURRENT TRENDS.               
UPDATED FORECAST PRODUCTS OUT SOON.                                             
THE PREVIOUS SHORT TERM FORECAST DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...                          
/TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT/                                                         
WAA ALREADY EVIDENT WITH SRLY FLOW AND TEMPS ONLY IN THE MID TO UPPER           
30S ATTM. GUSTY WINDS SHOWING UP ON SOME OF THE RIDGETOP OBS IN TN              
AND ON THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU. OTHERWISE...WINDS GUSTY FROM MIE TO SDF          
TO BWG TO MKL. NOTHING YET TO MEET NPW (WIND ADV) CRITERIA YET BUT              
THIS SHOULD CHANGE AFTER SUNRISE. STILL HAVE SOME SNOW IN OUR CNTRL             
ZONES TO GET RID OF SO TEMPS WILL BE SLOW TO CLIMB BUT SHOULD MAKE IT           
TO AT LEAST THE LOWER 50S IN OUR SNOW BELT ON THE ERN SIDE OF THE DAN           
BOONE NAT FOREST. ELSEWHERE...EXPECT MID 50S FOR HIGHS TODAY. HAVE              
UNDERCUT MOS TEMPS SLIGHTLY AS THEY SEEM TO HAVE BEEN OUT OF TOUCH              
WITH CURRENT SURFACE CONDITIONS. WITH THE EXPECTED WINDS TODAY I AM             
ALSO EXPECTING OVERNIGHT TEMPS TO REMAIN RELATIVELY FLAT AS THE                 
TYPICAL NOCTURNAL INVERSION WILL BE LATE TO ESTABLISH ...IF AT ALL.             
.LONG TERM.../MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/                                          
THE MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT ALOFT CONSIDERING THE COMPLEXITY             
OF THE FORECAST IN THE LONG TERM. A LARGE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL HOLD           
ON OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO AND EXTEND ITS INFLUENCE NORTHEAST ALONG             
THE SOUTHEAST ATLANTIC COASTAL STATES DURING THE BREADTH OF THIS                
PERIOD. IT WILL BE NUDGED AND BUFFETED FROM THE NORTHWEST BY A                  
SEEMINGLY ENDLESS STRING OF SHORTWAVES RUNNING FROM THE BASE OF THE             
DEEP TROUGH OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST NORTHEAST IN FAST AND BROAD               
SOUTHWEST FLOW THROUGH THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY UP INTO THE OHIO            
VALLEY AND THEN TO EASTERN CANADA. NOT SURPRISINGLY...THESE WAVES               
ARE ILL TIMED AND DEFINED AMONGST THE MODELS. A BLENDED SOLUTION WAS            
FOLLOWED...THOUGH THE UPPER PATTERN WILL BE FAR LESS IMPORTANT TO               
THIS FORECAST THAN IT NORMAL IS...GIVEN THE DETERMINATIVE ARCTIC AIR            
AIR MASS SLOSHING AROUND IN OUR NEIGHBORHOOD BENEATH THE UPPER                  
PATTERN. TO THAT END...THE DAY TO DAY EXTENT AND MOVEMENT OF THE COLD           
AIR IN THE LOWEST LAYERS OF THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BE A CRITICAL FACTOR            
IN PRECIPITATION TYPE THROUGH THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THIS FAIRLY WET           
FORECAST. EARLY ON...A BLEND OF OUR PREVIOUS FORECAST AND THE NAM12             
WAS FOLLOWED BEFORE MORE OF A BLEND FROM THE LATEST GFS AND 12Z ECMWF           
WAS PREFERRED FROM TUESDAY ON THROUGH SATURDAY. INITIALLY...THIS                
RESULTED IN A PUSH OF ARCTIC AIR FURTHER EAST THAN DEPICTED BY THE              
INHERITED GRIDS AND THE GFS. FOLLOWING THAT...LATER IN THE WEEK...THE           
SLOSHING OF THE ARCTIC AIR WILL BE BASED MORE ON THE SFC PRESSURE               
FEATURES AND THE RESULTING PATTERN. ACCORDINGLY...FOLLOWED A BLEND OF           
THE HPC PATTERN AND THE MID RANGE MODELS.                                       
SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE AN EXTREME OSCILLATION OF COLD AIR AND            
ITS RESULTS ON THE PRECIPITATION BETWEEN PERIODS OF WARMTH AS LOW               
PRESSURE WAVES PASS THROUGH THE AREA...RUNNING ALONG THE BAROCLINIC             
ZONE. THIS WILL ALSO BE A WET PERIOD WITH THE GULF OF MEXICO FEEDING            
MOISTURE NORTHEAST WITHIN THE BROAD AND FAST...DEEP LAYER...SOUTHWEST           
FLOW. SPECIFICALLY...THE ARCTIC AIR WILL PRESS INTO THE CWA FROM THE            
NORTHWEST LATER MONDAY AS SHOWERS STREAM ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE                 
FRONT. THE UNDERCUTTING COLD WILL BE ENOUGH FOR A THREAT OF MIXED               
PRECIPITATION OVER A GOOD PORTION OF THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT...                   
LINGERING INTO THE MORNING TUESDAY. THE NEXT WAVE THEN SENDS WARMER             
AIR BACK NORTH LATER TUESDAY WHILE THE CHANCE FOR LIQUID PCPN                   
CONTINUES. THIS WAVE PASSES ON WEDNESDAY DRAGGING THE COLD AIR AND              
ANOTHER THREAT FOR LINGERING MIXED PCPN WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY           
MORNING. FOR THURSDAY PROPER...THE NEXT SFC WAVE SENDS WARM AIR BACK            
NORTH...LASTING INTO THE NIGHT WITH COLD AIR PUSHING BACK INTO THE              
REGION ON FRIDAY NIGHT...BUT NOT QUITE ENOUGH...AT THIS POINT FOR               
MIXED PCPN FROM THE OVER RUNNING PCPN THAT WILL WORK BACK OVER THE              
AREA ON SATURDAY...ALL THE WHILE BRINGING THE NEXT BRIEF SURGE OF               
WARM AIR NORTHWARD. AS IT LOOKS NOW...THE GREATEST THREAT FOR MIXED             
PCPN WILL BE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING WITH A LESSER THREAT             
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WAVES OF MOIST AIR WILL KEEP THE CHANCE OF RAIN                
GOING FOR MUCH OF THE TIME THROUGH THE EXTENDED.                                
GIVEN THE NATURE OF THE ARCTIC AIR AFFECTING US EARLY ON...FOLLOWED             
MORE OF A TEMPERATURE CURVE AND SPECIFIC VALUES FROM THE RAW NAM12.             
THIS RESULTED IN TEMPS CLOSER TO THE MET NUMBERS MONDAY NIGHT RATHER            
THAN THE MAV. LATER ON...BLENDED THE RAW ECMWF AND GFS TEMPS                    
RESULTING IN MORE MODERATED MAX AND MIN TEMPS IN THAT PART OF THE               
EXTENDED THAN THE MEX NUMBERS. AS FOR POPS...ENDED UP WITH MORE OF A            
BLEND OF THE MAV AND MET THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE LONG RANGE AND           
THEN NOT QUITE AS HIGH AS THE MEX THROUGH SATURDAY.                             
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION.../06Z TO 06Z/                                                        
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO GIVE WAY TO A DEVELOPING STORM SYSTEM            
THAT IS BREWING IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS. AS THE HIGH WEAKENS AND MOVES           
OFF TO THE EAST SUNDAY EVENING AND NIGHT...SCATTERED TO BROKEN MIDDLE           
AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA FROM THE WEST.              
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF              
PERIOD AT ALL THREE TAF SITES. THE PRIMARY AVIATION CONCERN WILL BE             
WINDS. DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS TONIGHT...LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR WILL           
BE AN ISSUE. THE LATEST NAM12 FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE SHOWING A                  
DESCENDING LAYER OF 35-45KT WINDS BEGINNING AT 8Z. THE 15/0Z 850 HPA            
CHART SUPPORTS THIS SCENARIO AS WELL...WITH A DISTINCT 55-70 KT LOW             
LEVEL JET CORE MOVING IN FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND ACROSS THE MID             
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. WINDS ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF THE LLJ ARE           
IN THE 30-50 KT RANGE...AND AGAIN SUPPORT THE LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR              
MENTIONED IN THE 6Z TAF. WINDS WILL BE CRITICAL DURING THE DAY TODAY            
AS WELL...WITH GUSTS UP TO 45 MPH POSSIBLE BETWEEN 18 AND 22Z...AS              
THE STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET MOVES ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY...AND              
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE DEPARTING HIGH AND THE APPROACHING            
LOW BEGINS TO TIGHTEN. IN FACT...A WIND ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED TO             
ADDRESS THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG WINDS LATER TODAY. ANY PRECIPITATION           
ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEVELOPING NORTHERN PLAINS STORM...WILL NOT MAKE            
IT INTO THE FORECAST AREA UNTIL MONDAY MORNING.                                 
&&                                                                              
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR KYZ044-050>052-                  
058>060-068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120.                                    
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHORT TERM...DUSTY/WJM                                                          
LONG TERM....GREIF                                                              
AVIATION...AR                                                                   
</pre> ky                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN                                              
950 AM CST SUN DEC 14 2008                                                      
.UPDATE...                                                                      
INCREASED WINDS/GUSTS IN FCST TODAY TO BETTER REFLECT CURRENT                   
OBSERVATIONS. FOR PAST SEVERAL HRS KDYT AND DULM5 HAVE BEEN                     
SUSTAINED AROUND 30 KT...WITH GUSTS AROUND 40 KTS. AT 1530Z KDYT                
HAD A GUST TO 45 KT. EXPECTED THESE WINDS TO PERSIST...OR BECOME                
STRONGER THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS THE SFC LOW MOVES INTO NRN WIS.               
UP T0 60 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE AT THE HEAD OF LAKE SUPERIOR IN THE               
DULUTH/SUPERIOR HARBOR THIS AFTERNOON.                                          
AREA OF +SN AND 1/2SM OR LESS VSBY CONTINUING GOOD PACE LIFTING                 
NWRD...WITH LEADING EDGE ON TRACK TO REACH THE TWIN PORTS IN THE                
NEXT 30 MIN.                                                                    
WATCHING SOUTH SHORE ZONES FOR A POSSIBLE UPGRADE TO BLIZZARD                   
WARNING. THE SFC OBSERVATIONS ARE ONLY GUSTING AROUND 25KT...BUT                
WILL KEEP IN CONTACT WITH LOCAL LAW ENFORCEMENT IN                              
BAYFIELD/ASHLAND/IRON COUNTIES IN CASE WHITE OUT CONDITIONS BECOME              
WIDESPREAD.                                                                     
ALSO KEEPING CLOSE WATCH ON RA/SN TRANSITION ZONE THAT IS                       
CURRENTLY SET UP ALONG THE DLH/MPX CWA BORDER IN NRN WISCONSIN.                 
LATEST SFC OBS ARE REPORTING RA FROM OSCEOLA...TO RICE LAKE AND                 
LADYSMITH...AND JUST SN JUST TO THE NORTH FROM CAMBRIDGE...TO                   
SIREN...AND PHILLIPS.                                                           
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 522 AM CST SUN DEC 14 2008/                         
..MAJOR STORM AIMING FOR NORTHLAND...                                           
..SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL FOR MOST LOCATIONS...                                    
...DRAMATIC CHANGES IN TEMPERATURES AND WIND TODAY...                           
....WINTER STORM WARNING NOW INCLUDES MOST OF NORTHWEST WISCONSIN...            
DISCUSSION...                                                                   
WELL ADVERTISED SYSTEM BEHAVING AS EXPECTED WITH ONE EXCEPTION.                 
DOME OF COLD AIR IN SFC/85H LAYER HAS MAINTAINED ITSELF ACROSS NW               
WIS EARLY THIS MORNING. ANIMATION OF RUC13 THERMAL/WIND FIELDS IN               
BDRY LAYER INDICATE THAT COLDER AIR IS UNDERCUTTING SOUTHWEST FLOW              
ALOFT. 925H WINDS HAVE SHIFTED FROM SOUTH TO EAST ALONG A RZN TO                
HYR TO PBH LINE. THIS HAS PUSHED MAIN CONVERGENCE ZONE IN LOW                   
LEVELS FARTHER SOUTH TO ERN PART OF MPX CWA. BAYFIELD PENINSULA                 
APPEARS TO BE EXPERIENCING ENHANCED PRECIP FROM LONG TRAJECTORY                 
DOWN LAKE SUPERIOR. LATEST MSAS SHOWS WELL DEFINED SFC INVERTED                 
TROUGH FROM LOW OVER ERN NEB TO EAX TO HOUGHTON IN UP OF MI. 3HR                
PRESSRR OVER SERN PART OF CWA CURRENTLY. LATEST SAT IMAGERY SHOWS               
LARGE AREA OF COOLING CLOUD TOPS ACROSS ERN DAKOTAS IN VICINITY OF              
DIVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER TROF. STRONG UPPER JETS POISED                 
OVER ONTARIO... WITH NRN BRANCH... AND LEFT EXIT REGION OF SRN                  
PLAINS JET TRANSLATING NE INTO SRN MN/WI.                                       
TODAY/TONIGHT...ONLY SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO EXISTING FCST WAS TO UPGRADE         
BURNETT/WASHBURN/SAWYER COUNTIES TO WSW. THIS IS PRIMARILY BECAUSE              
EXISTING THERMAL BDRY IN LOW LAYERS AND UNDERCUTTING OF COLD AIR                
SHOULD ENSURE MOSTLY SNOW FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE STORM. FSCT                   
SNDGS ALSO REFLECT THIS CHANGE FROM YESTERDAY. BLIZZARD CONDITIONS              
STILL EXPECTED TODAY ALONG HEAD OF LAKE AS FUNNELING OF HIGHER                  
SPEED AIR OCCURS. DYT ALREADY GUSTING TO ABOUT 40MPH. MAJOR                     
FORCING FACTORS STILL IN PLAY. A LARGE AREA OF MDT/STRONG                       
FRONTOGENESIS WILL BE ENHANCED AS UPPER TROF ADVECTS EAST TODAY.                
COUPLED JETS WILL ADD TO SYNOPTIC SCALE ASCENT. SOME MIX OF                     
SN/IP/FZRA ACROSS EXTREME ERN CWA AS SFC LOW GETS CLOSER THIS                   
AFTERNOON. WITH COLD AIR ALREADY IN PLACE AND SATURATION OCCURING               
IN DEEP LAYER SUSPECT THAT POPTYP MAY BE MORE A WET SNOW OR SLEET               
VS COLD RAIN IN THIS AREA. WINDCHILL VALUES APPROACH/EXCEED                     
ADVISORY CATEGORY TONIGHT BUT DID NOT WANT TO ADD ANOTHER ADVISORY              
TO BUSY SLATE. WILL VERBALIZE THE THREAT IN THE WSW AND HWO                     
PRODUCTS. TEMPERATURES WILL DROP BELOW ZERO OVER MOST OF THE                    
REGION TONIGHT AND REMAIN BELOW ZERO PERHAPS UNTIL WEDNESDAY                    
AFTERNOON. PLENTY OF BLOWING SNOW EXPECTED AS GUSTY WINDS PUSH                  
FLUFFY LOW DENSITY FLAKES ALL OVER THE PLACE.                                   
MONDAY...STORM LOOSENS ITS GRIP BY MONDAY AFTERNOON OVER CWA.                   
SN/BS STILL EXPECTED THROUGH MORNING MOST AREAS. WITH 85/70H RH                 
STILL ABOVE 60 PERCENT MOST OF DAY...SHOULD SEE ADDITIONAL SNOW                 
FOR SNOWBELT WITH VERY HIGH SNOW/LIQUID RATIOS. MAY NEED TO EXTEND              
WARNING IN THAT AREA.                                                           
EXTENDED....TUE THRU SAT...                                                     
SEVERAL S/WVS WILL TRANSIT THE REGION...REQUIRING AT LEAST SOME LOW             
POPS. THE DRY ARCTIC AIR THAT WILL BE IN PLACE WILL LIMIT ANY                   
POTENTIAL PRECIP. THE MOST LIKELY DRY PD WILL BE WED/THU UNDER WK               
RIDGING ALOFT...ALTHO SRN ZONES MAY RECEIVE SOME PRECIP BEING ON THE            
NRN FRINGES OF A SFC SYSTEM MOVG UP THE OH VLY. BOTH GFS AND ECMWF              
SHOW THIS SYSTEM...ALTHO THERE ARE TIMING DIFFS.                                
AVIATION...                                                                     
GENERALLY IFR/LIFR CONDS IN SN/FG/BLSN WILL PERSIST THRU THE TAF PD             
AS MAJ WINT STORM MOVES FROM NEB TO LK SUP BY MON MRNG. AT THAT TIME            
CONDS WILL BEGIN TO GRADUALLY IMPROVE AS THE STORM MOVES AWAY.                  
STRONG NE WINDS WILL SIFT TO THE NW AS THE STORM PASSES...THEN                  
GRADUALLY DIMINISH DURING THE DAY ON MON.                                       
&&                                                                              
POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                             
DLH  21 -10  -5 -21 / 100  80  40  10                                           
INL  -1 -11  -6 -28 / 100  80  40  10                                           
BRD  17  -9  -4 -18 / 100  80  20  10                                           
HYR  30  -4   1 -19 / 100  80  30  10                                           
ASX  26  -2   3 -14 / 100  80  50  20                                           
&&                                                                              
.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
MN...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 4 AM CST MONDAY FOR CROW WING-PINE-             
     SOUTHERN AITKIN-SOUTHERN CASS.                                             
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 12 PM CST MONDAY FOR CENTRAL ST.                
     LOUIS-KOOCHICHING-NORTHERN AITKIN-NORTHERN CASS-NORTHERN                   
     COOK/NORTHERN LAKE-NORTHERN ITASCA-NORTHERN ST. LOUIS-                     
     SOUTHERN COOK/LAKESHORE-SOUTHERN ITASCA-SOUTHERN                           
     LAKE/LAKESHORE.                                                            
     BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 12 PM CST MONDAY FOR CARLTON/SOUTHERN ST.           
     LOUIS.                                                                     
WI...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 4 AM CST MONDAY FOR BURNETT-SAWYER-             
     WASHBURN.                                                                  
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 12 PM CST MONDAY FOR ASHLAND-BAYFIELD-          
     IRON.                                                                      
     BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 12 PM CST MONDAY FOR DOUGLAS.                       
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM CST MONDAY FOR PRICE.                   
LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM MONDAY TO 4 AM CST TUESDAY FOR              
     LSZ121-LSZ146-LSZ147-LSZ148.                                               
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 4 AM CST MONDAY FOR LSZ121-LSZ144-LSZ145-               
     LSZ146-LSZ147-LSZ148.                                                      
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 4 PM CST MONDAY FOR LSZ144-              
     LSZ145.                                                                    
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM CST MONDAY FOR LSZ140-LSZ141-              
     LSZ142-LSZ143.                                                             
$$                                                                              
GRANING/EOM                                                                     
</pre> mn                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN                              
930 AM CST SUN DEC 14 2008                                                      
.UPDATE...                                                                      
LATEST RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS BAND OF PCPN LIFTING NORTH AND                       
BEGINNING TO PIVOT OVER THE AREA. PCPN TYPE GOES FROM RAIN TO SNOW              
AS YOU MOVE SOUTHEAST TO NORTHWEST THROUGH THIS PCPN AREA... WITH               
SOME SLEET IN THE TRANSITION ZONE. THERE IS SOME FZDZ AND FREEZING              
RAIN AROUND... ALTHOUGH IT APPEARS TO BE MAINLY IN THE LIGHTER                  
PCPN SOUTH OF THE MAIN AXIS OF PCPN... PRIMARILY FROM NEAR                      
LITCHFIELD SOUTHWEST TO REDWOOD FALLS. THINKING IS THAT THIS AREA               
IS SEEING THE MID-LEVELS DRY OUT A BIT AS THE PCPN MOVES NORTH...               
AND HAS AN ENTIRE SUB-FREEZING SOUNDING... BUT IS NOT COLD ENOUGH               
TO GET ICE CRYSTALS TO FORM IN THE SATURATED LAYER. THIS COULD                  
CONTINUE TO BE A BIT OF A HEADACHE OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTH                       
CENTRAL AND EAST CENTRAL MINNESOTA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS THE                 
COLD AIR SURGES IN... BUT THE MOISTURE DEPTH REMAINS LIMITED... SO              
THERE CONTINUES TO BE A NEED TO MENTION SOME FZRA/FZDZ IN THE                   
FORECAST. DEEPER MOISTURE DOES EVENTUALLY ARRIVE ON THE BACK SIDE               
OF THE SURFACE LOW AS IT MOVE THROUGH THE METRO NORTHEAST INTO                  
WISCONSIN... WHICH WILL WORK TO TAKE CARE OF THIS ISSUE. THE RUC                
HAS A GOOD HANDLE ON THE CURRENT LOW LEVEL TEMPERATURES... WIND                 
FIELDS... AND LOW POSITION... AND FAVOR ITS DEPICTION OF THINGS                 
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY... WHICH LINES UP REASONABLY WELL              
WITH THE PREVIOUS NAM FORECASTS. WITH THAT SAID... THE CURRENT                  
HEADLINES LOOK OK FOR THE MOMENT... BUT THERE MAY BE SOME NEED TO               
EXTEND WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES FARTHER SOUTHEAST IF THERE IS                  
MORE IN THE WAY OF FZDZ/FZRA IN THE AFOREMENTIONED ZONE OF MID-                 
LEVEL DRYING. THE REMAINS ADVISORIES AND WARNINGS STILL LOOK ON                 
TRACK... WITH THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE HEAVIER SNOW/PCPN LIKELY                 
ANCHORING ITSELF VERY SOON BEFORE PIVOTING THEN LIFTING                         
NORTHEAST... KEEPING THE SAME AREAS WITHIN THE ZONE OF FAVORABLE                
UPPER DIVERGENCE AND MID-LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS FOR AN EXTENDED                    
PERIOD OF TIME THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. IT APPEARS THE                      
SOUTHEAST EDGE OF THIS MAIN PCPN BAND WILL ANCHOR FROM NEAR                     
GRANITE FALLS NORTHEAST THROUGH ST CLOUD TO MORA... WITH AREAS                  
NORTH OF THAT SEEING THE GREATEST SNOW POTENTIAL... WHICH LINES UP              
WELL WITH CURRENT WARNINGS. STRONGEST WINDS OWING TO THE PRESSURE               
GRADIENT... ISALLOBARIC CONTRIBUTIONS... AND SURFACE ROUGHNESS                  
ISSUES WILL BE OVER WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE              
FORECAST AREA... WITH THE CURRENT BLIZZARD WARNINGS LOOKING OK                  
WITH RESPECT TO WHERE THOSE STRONG WINDS MESH WITH EXPECTED                     
SNOWFALL. THE METRO AREA WILL LIKELY SEE SOME LIGHT PCPN THROUGH                
MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON... WITH SOME FZDZ/FZRA POSSIBLE TOWARD MID                
AFTERNOON AS THE SOUNDING COOLS BELOW FREEZING YET THE MID LEVELS               
REMAIN TOO DRY TO SEED THINGS WITH ICE NUCLEI. ONCE AGAIN... WILL               
NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON THIS POTENTIAL WITH RESPECT TO EXTENDING                 
THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY. REGARDLESS... THE COLD AIR WILL                    
ARRIVE IN EARNEST ON THE HEELS OF STRONG WESTERLY WINDS AROUND AND              
AFTER 3PM IN THE METRO... WHICH COULD WORK TO QUICKLY ICE UP THE                
CURRENTLY WET SURFACES EVEN IF FREEZING PCPN DOESN/T MATERIALIZE.               
WILL BE WORKING ON SOME UPDATES... WITH UPDATED GRIDS AND ZONE                  
FORECAST COMING... ALTHOUGH CHANGES SHOULD NOT BE TOO SIGNIFICANT.              
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION.../06Z TAF ISSUANCE/                                                  
WRMFNT EXTENDING FM SFC LOW ANCHORED IN NE CO THEN ACRS S MN. -SN               
HAS BEEN SHWG SM EXPANSION ACRS CNTL MN DRNG EVE WITH FAIRLY                    
WDSPRD VSBYS 1-3SM. STG UVV MVS INTO W MN BY 12Z SPRDG RPDLY EWRD               
ACRS CNTRL MN DRNG MRNG AS UPR LOW APRCHS. THIS WL RPDLY DVLP MDT/HVY           
SNW ESP AT AXN BUT ALSO AT STC. INCRSG LOW LVL FLOW/WAA OVERNITE                
MAY DVLP -RA OVER WC WI OVERNITE PERHAPS INTO MSP. SMALL THREAT OF              
-FZRA BUT WITH SFC DWPTS GNRLY AOA 32 DEGREES SHUD BE MAINLY -RA.               
BIG DIFFERENCE IN QPF OUTPUT ACRS N AND CNTL WI BTWN 12Z AND 18Z WITH           
00Z GFS VERY AGGRESSIVE AS 850MB INCRS TO 50 KTS AND SIGNIFICANT                
TIGHTENING OF THERMAL GRADIENT. CONCERN FOR MANY HRS OF BLSN AT                 
AXN DVLPG SUN MRNG AND CONTG INTO SUNDAY EVE WITH NRLY WINDS ON                 
BACKSIDE OF SFC LOW. -RA SHUD RPDLY CHG TO -SN AT RWF SUN MRNG AND              
BY ARND 18Z AT MSP AS COLDER AIR WRAPS IN.                                      
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION...                                                             
DELAY IN DISCUSSION DUE TO COMPLEX YET EXCITING FORECAST.                       
CHALLENGES CENTER ON BLIZZARD CONDITIONS TODAY IN WEST CTRL                     
MN...WITH BLIZZARD-LIKE OBSERVATIONS ALREADY COMING IN FROM                     
MADISON MN AT 630 AM. THEN FOCUS TURNS TO THE SHARP DROP IN                     
TEMPS...WITH READINGS IN JUST 24 HOURS /7 AM MONDAY/ TO BE 35 TO                
45 DEGREES COLDER.                                                              
SURFACE BOUNDARY EXHIBITING COLD FRONTAL CHARACTERISTICS ACROSS                 
WRN MN WITH COLD BOUNDARY LAYER UNDERCUTTING FORCING AND                        
INSTABILITY FOR SNOW ALOFT. SATELLITE REVEALS AN AREA OF IDEAL                  
CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES FOR DENDRITIC GROWTH...AND SHORT TERM MODEL              
AND SIMPLY RADAR TRENDS ARE PORTRAYING VERY GOOD POTENTIAL FOR                  
BANDING SNOW IN WEST CTRL MN THROUGH TODAY. COBB TECHNIQUE FROM                 
NAM/GFS MODELS HAS CONSISTENTLY SHOWN WHAT WILL BE A RAPIDLY                    
INCREASE SNOW TO LIQUID RATIO WITH THE SNOW THANKS TO THE COLD AIR              
ADVECTION. SO FORECAST SNOWFALL AMOUNTS COME OUT TO 5 TO 12 INCHES              
ACROSS WRN AND CTRL MN. THE FOCUS FOR BANDING AND JUST THE                      
PROLONGED DURATION OF SNOW WOULD HIGHLIGHT                                      
MORRIS...ALEXANDRIA...AND LONG PRAIRIE TO SEE 9 TO 12 INCH AMOUNTS              
WITH ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE GIVEN BANDING. THESE                      
FORECAST GENERAL SNOWFALL AMOUNTS FALL OUT WELL WITH EMPIRICAL                  
TECHNIQUES AS WELL. GUIDANCE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT ON MASS FIELD               
PLACEMENT...AND THIS HEAVY SNOW AXIS LIES BETWEEN THE H8 AND H7                 
LOWS AND HELPS LEND EVEN MORE CONFIDENCE. TO THE EAST...MIXED                   
PRECIP...ALBEIT LIGHT IN THE AFTN...MAY STAY MIXED UNTIL VERY LATE              
IN THE DAY. SOME ICE ACCUMULATIONS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE TIGHT                 
H9-H8 BAROCLINIC ZONE /U.S. HIGHWAY 8 CORRIDOR OF WRN WI/ WHERE                 
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW A DEEP ENOUGH NEAR-SURFACE COLD LAYER TO                
PROMOTE FREEZING RAIN. SREF PROBABILITIES ALSO HIGHLIGHT THAT                   
AREA.                                                                           
WINDS FOR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS ALREADY SETTING IN. WHILE NOT THE                 
GREATEST SETUP FOR WESTERN MINNESOTA...THE OVERALL LOW LEVEL PRESSURE           
GRADIENT FORCE IS SO STRONG THAT WINDS WILL GUST TO 35 TO 40 MPH                
THROUGHOUT TODAY. SIMILAR PRESSURE GRADIENT SPACING LED TO SUCH                 
WINDS IN THE DAKOTAS AND THE SIMILARITIES IN TOPOGRAPHY OF WEST                 
CTRL MN TO THE DAKOTAS WILL HELP. ALREADY GUSTS TO 40-45 MPH HAVE               
BEEN OBSERVED IN LAC QUI PARLE COUNTY. BEST ISALLOBARIC                         
COUPLET/COLD AIR ADVECTION/1000-850MB DIVERGENCE MOVES FROM WEST                
TO EAST ACROSS SRN MN THIS AFTN. THIS AREA WILL NOT SEE THAT MUCH               
FRESH SNOW...BUT THE WINDS MAY BE STRONG ENOUGH TO LEAD TO SOME                 
BLOWING SNOW OF WHAT REMAINS. GUSTS OF 40 TO 45 MPH ARE VERY                    
POSSIBLE THIS AFTN AND EVE.                                                     
WIND CHILLS PLUMMET THROUGH THE NIGHT TONIGHT WITH THE WINDS                    
CONTINUING AND COLD AIR ADVECTION AS WELL. TEMPS LIKELY TO FALL                 
ALL THE WAY THROUGH MON MORNING BEFORE CLIMBING ONLY SLIGHTLY                   
DURING THE AFTN. FORECAST WIND CHILLS OF -20 TO -35 ACROSS THE MN               
CWA...THE NATURE IN WHICH IT ARRIVES...AND BEING THE FIRST DOSE OF              
SUCH AIR THIS WINTER...IT ALL WARRANTED WIND CHILL ADVISORY                     
ISSUANCE BEGINNING AT MIDNIGHT. MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED THROUGH                 
MON AFTN.                                                                       
MIN TEMPS MON NIGHT LOOK TO BE -20F OR BELOW IN THE AREA THAT SEES              
THE MOST FRESH SNOW. WITH THE ARCTIC HIGH...THE MSLP AND H8 TEMPS               
WITH FRESH SNOW...IT ALL DOES FAVOR MIN TEMPS OF THAT MAGNITUDE LOOKING         
AT SOME LOCAL CLIMATOLOGY.                                                      
BEYOND...TUES SYSTEM LOOKING MORE INTERESTING WITH SHARP H7 TROUGH              
LIFTING NORTHEAST OVER THE AREA. SOME MINOR ACCUMULATIONS ARE                   
FAVORED WITH THIS SETUP ON TUES AFTN AND NIGHT. WILL NEED TO FOCUS              
ON MORE AS WE GET INTO THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM.                                 
&&                                                                              
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
MN...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 12 PM CST MONDAY              
     FOR ANOKA-BENTON-BLUE EARTH-BROWN-CARVER-CHIPPEWA-DAKOTA-                  
     DOUGLAS-FARIBAULT-FREEBORN-GOODHUE-HENNEPIN-KANDIYOHI-LAC                  
     QUI PARLE-LE SUEUR-MARTIN-MCLEOD-MEEKER-MORRISON-NICOLLET-                 
     POPE-RAMSEY-REDWOOD-RENVILLE-RICE-SCOTT-SHERBURNE-SIBLEY-                  
     STEARNS-STEELE-STEVENS-SWIFT-TODD-WASECA-WASHINGTON-                       
     WATONWAN-WRIGHT-YELLOW MEDICINE.                                           
     BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR CHIPPEWA-DOUGLAS-          
     LAC QUI PARLE-POPE-STEVENS-SWIFT-YELLOW MEDICINE.                          
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR BENTON-                
     KANABEC-KANDIYOHI-MILLE LACS-MORRISON-STEARNS-TODD.                        
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR CHISAGO-            
     ISANTI-MEEKER-REDWOOD-RENVILLE-SHERBURNE-WRIGHT.                           
WI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR BARRON-             
     POLK-RUSK.                                                                 
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
TRH/RAH/MTF                                                                     
</pre> mn                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED                                            
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN                                              
522 AM CST SUN DEC 14 2008                                                      
...MAJOR STORM AIMING FOR NORTHLAND...                                          
...SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL FOR MOST LOCATIONS...                                   
....DRAMATIC CHANGES IN TEMPERATURES AND WIND TODAY...                          
.....WINTER STORM WARNING NOW INCLUDES MOST OF NORTHWEST WISCONSIN...           
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
WELL ADVERTISED SYSTEM BEHAVING AS EXPECTED WITH ONE EXCEPTION.                 
DOME OF COLD AIR IN SFC/85H LAYER HAS MAINTAINED ITSELF ACROSS NW               
WIS EARLY THIS MORNING. ANIMATION OF RUC13 THERMAL/WIND FIELDS IN               
BDRY LAYER INDICATE THAT COLDER AIR IS UNDERCUTTING SOUTHWEST FLOW              
ALOFT. 925H WINDS HAVE SHIFTED FROM SOUTH TO EAST ALONG A RZN TO                
HYR TO PBH LINE. THIS HAS PUSHED MAIN CONVERGENCE ZONE IN LOW                   
LEVELS FARTHER SOUTH TO ERN PART OF MPX CWA. BAYFIELD PENINSULA                 
APPEARS TO BE EXPERIENCING ENHANCED PRECIP FROM LONG TRAJECTORY                 
DOWN LAKE SUPERIOR. LATEST MSAS SHOWS WELL DEFINED SFC INVERTED                 
TROUGH FROM LOW OVER ERN NEB TO EAX TO HOUGHTON IN UP OF MI. 3HR                
PRESSRR OVER SERN PART OF CWA CURRENTLY. LATEST SAT IMAGERY SHOWS               
LARGE AREA OF COOLING CLOUD TOPS ACROSS ERN DAKOTAS IN VICINITY OF              
DIVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER TROF. STRONG UPPER JETS POISED                 
OVER ONTARIO... WITH NRN BRANCH... AND LEFT EXIT REGION OF SRN                  
PLAINS JET TRANSLATING NE INTO SRN MN/WI.                                       
TODAY/TONIGHT...ONLY SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO EXISTING FCST WAS TO UPGRADE         
BURNETT/WASHBURN/SAWYER COUNTIES TO WSW. THIS IS PRIMARILY BECAUSE              
EXISTING THERMAL BDRY IN LOW LAYERS AND UNDERCUTTING OF COLD AIR                
SHOULD ENSURE MOSTLY SNOW FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE STORM. FSCT                   
SNDGS ALSO REFLECT THIS CHANGE FROM YESTERDAY. BLIZZARD CONDITIONS              
STILL EXPECTED TODAY ALONG HEAD OF LAKE AS FUNNELING OF HIGHER                  
SPEED AIR OCCURS. DYT ALREADY GUSTING TO ABOUT 40MPH. MAJOR                     
FORCING FACTORS STILL IN PLAY. A LARGE AREA OF MDT/STRONG                       
FRONTOGENESIS WILL BE ENHANCED AS UPPER TROF ADVECTS EAST TODAY.                
COUPLED JETS WILL ADD TO SYNOPTIC SCALE ASCENT. SOME MIX OF                     
SN/IP/FZRA ACROSS EXTREME ERN CWA AS SFC LOW GETS CLOSER THIS                   
AFTERNOON. WITH COLD AIR ALREADY IN PLACE AND SATURATION OCCURING               
IN DEEP LAYER SUSPECT THAT POPTYP MAY BE MORE A WET SNOW OR SLEET               
VS COLD RAIN IN THIS AREA. WINDCHILL VALUES APPROACH/EXCEED                     
ADVISORY CATEGORY TONIGHT BUT DID NOT WANT TO ADD ANOTHER ADVISORY              
TO BUSY SLATE. WILL VERBALIZE THE THREAT IN THE WSW AND HWO                     
PRODUCTS. TEMPERATURES WILL DROP BELOW ZERO OVER MOST OF THE                    
REGION TONIGHT AND REMAIN BELOW ZERO PERHAPS UNTIL WEDNESDAY                    
AFTERNOON. PLENTY OF BLOWING SNOW EXPECTED AS GUSTY WINDS PUSH                  
FLUFFY LOW DENSITY FLAKES ALL OVER THE PLACE.                                   
MONDAY...STORM LOOSENS ITS GRIP BY MONDAY AFTERNOON OVER CWA.                   
SN/BS STILL EXPECTED THROUGH MORNING MOST AREAS. WITH 85/70H RH                 
STILL ABOVE 60 PERCENT MOST OF DAY...SHOULD SEE ADDITIONAL SNOW                 
FOR SNOWBELT WITH VERY HIGH SNOW/LIQUID RATIOS. MAY NEED TO EXTEND              
WARNING IN THAT AREA.                                                           
EXTENDED....TUE THRU SAT...                                                     
SEVERAL S/WVS WILL TRANSIT THE REGION...REQUIRING AT LEAST SOME LOW             
POPS. THE DRY ARCTIC AIR THAT WILL BE IN PLACE WILL LIMIT ANY                   
POTENTIAL PRECIP. THE MOST LIKELY DRY PD WILL BE WED/THU UNDER WK               
RIDGING ALOFT...ALTHO SRN ZONES MAY RECEIVE SOME PRECIP BEING ON THE            
NRN FRINGES OF A SFC SYSTEM MOVG UP THE OH VLY. BOTH GFS AND ECMWF              
SHOW THIS SYSTEM...ALTHO THERE ARE TIMING DIFFS.                                
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
GENERALLY IFR/LIFR CONDS IN SN/FG/BLSN WILL PERSIST THRU THE TAF PD             
AS MAJ WINT STORM MOVES FROM NEB TO LK SUP BY MON MRNG. AT THAT TIME            
CONDS WILL BEGIN TO GRADUALLY IMPROVE AS THE STORM MOVES AWAY.                  
STRONG NE WINDS WILL SIFT TO THE NW AS THE STORM PASSES...THEN                  
GRADUALLY DIMINISH DURING THE DAY ON MON.                                       
&&                                                                              
POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                             
DLH  21 -10  -5 -21 / 100  80  40  10                                           
INL  -1 -11  -6 -28 / 100  80  40  10                                           
BRD  17  -9  -4 -18 / 100  80  20  10                                           
HYR  30  -4   1 -19 / 100  80  30  10                                           
ASX  26  -2   3 -14 / 100  80  50  20                                           
&&                                                                              
.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
MN...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 4 AM CST MONDAY FOR CROW WING-PINE-             
     SOUTHERN AITKIN-SOUTHERN CASS.                                             
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 12 PM CST MONDAY FOR CENTRAL ST.                
     LOUIS-KOOCHICHING-NORTHERN AITKIN-NORTHERN CASS-NORTHERN                   
     COOK/NORTHERN LAKE-NORTHERN ITASCA-NORTHERN ST. LOUIS-                     
     SOUTHERN COOK/LAKESHORE-SOUTHERN ITASCA-SOUTHERN                           
     LAKE/LAKESHORE.                                                            
     BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 12 PM CST MONDAY FOR CARLTON/SOUTHERN ST.           
     LOUIS.                                                                     
WI...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 12 PM CST MONDAY FOR ASHLAND-BAYFIELD-          
     IRON.                                                                      
     BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 12 PM CST MONDAY FOR DOUGLAS.                       
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 4 AM CST MONDAY FOR BURNETT-SAWYER-             
     WASHBURN.                                                                  
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4AM CST MONDAY FOR PRICE.                    
LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM MONDAY TO 4 AM CST TUESDAY FOR              
     LSZ121-LSZ146-LSZ147-LSZ148.                                               
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 4 AM CST MONDAY FOR LSZ121-LSZ144-LSZ145-               
     LSZ146-LSZ147-LSZ148.                                                      
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 4 PM CST MONDAY FOR LSZ144-              
     LSZ145.                                                                    
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM CST MONDAY FOR LSZ140-LSZ141-              
     LSZ142-LSZ143.                                                             
$$                                                                              
CANNON/04                                                                       
</pre> mn                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK                                               
829 AM CST SUN DEC 14 2008                                                      
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
ARCTIC FRONT BARRELING SOUTH AND AT 8 AM WAS THROUGH WICHITA AND                
EXTENDED BACK INTO NORTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE. WHILE IT MAY SLOW A                
LITTLE DURING THE DAY IT DOES APPEAR TO BE A COUPLE OF HOURS AHEAD              
OF SCHEDULE AND IS EVEN SLIGHTLY FASTER THAN LOCAL WRF AND RUC13.               
WILL BE ISSUING UPDATES AS NECESSARY THIS MORNING TO REFLECT                    
TIMING. PRECIP AMOUNTS STILL LOOK MINIMAL AND MAINLY CONFINED TO                
FAR NE OKLAHOMA THROUGH NW ARKANSAS.                                            
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 550 AM CST SUN DEC 14 2008/                         
DISCUSSION...                                                                   
AVIATION...                                                                     
LOW CLOUDS REMAIN NEAR THE TUL/RVS AREA AND EXTEND                              
SE TO NEAR FSM.  CLOUD DECK WILL LIKELY BECOME                                  
SCATTERED BY MID MORNING/RISING ABOVE 3KFT. GUSTY                               
SOUTH WINDS WILL CONTINUE AHEAD OF STRONG COLD                                  
FRONT...WHICH IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE TUL                                  
AREA AROUND 400 PM. BEST RAIN CHANCES WILL LIKELY                               
REMAIN OVER NW ARK THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT                              
HOURS ALONG THE FRONT AND IS COVERED WITH A                                     
PROB30 GROUP.                                                                   
AVIATION=12                                                                     
PREV DISCUSSION...                                                              
WILD SWINGS AND OSCILLATIONS OF THE WEATHER PENDULUM                            
COMING UP.  UNSEASONABLY MILD  (AT OR NEAR RECORDS)                             
TODAY WITH SOUTH WINDS 20 GUSTING TO ABOUT 40.  NOT                             
QUITE AS WINDY AS YESTERDAY.  10Z SURFACE MAP SHOWS                             
ARCTIC FRONT NOW HALF WAY THROUGH KANSAS. NORTHWEST                             
KANSAS IN THE TEENS AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST KANSAS 60.                            
MODELS HAVE BEEN  CONSISTENT WITH THIS ARCTIC FRONT                             
PLUS OR MINUS A COUPLE HOURS. LOOKS LIKE VERY CLOSE                             
TO INTERSTATE 44 AXIS @ 5PM. COLD AIR COMING FASTER                             
THAN MODELS SIGNAL.  PRECIP ON THE LIGHT SIDE SINCE                             
THE COLD DRY AIR RUSHES IN SO FAST. A WINTRY MIX OF                             
PRECIP CHANGING FROM RAIN TO FREEZING RAIN FREEZING                             
DRIZZLE OR SLEET.  CHANCE OF MEASURABLE PRECIP LESS                             
THAN 50 PERCENT AT MOST EASTERN OKLAHOMA ZONES WITH                             
A BETTER THAN EVEN CHANCE FOR NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.                               
LITTLE CHANCE RESIDUAL PRECIP MONDAY EXCEPT EXTREME                             
SOUTHEAST.   MONDAY WILL BE AS UNSEASONABLY COLD AS                             
TODAY IS UNSEASONABLY WARM.                                                     
LOW CONFIDENCE LEVEL FORECAST TUESDAY - THURSDAY AS                             
BOUNDARY BETWEEN ATTIC AIR AND MUCH WARMER AIR JUST                             
SOUTH OSCILLATES NORTH INTO... OR NEAR OUR FORECAST                             
AREA..THEN EVENTUAL BACK SOUTH. MODEL SURFACE TEMPS                             
VARY BY GREATER  THAN 25 DEGREES FOR FORECAST TEMPS                             
VALID AT THE SAME TIME. ARCTIC AIR ONCE IN PLACE IS                             
OFTEN DIFFICULT TO DISLODGE SO LEANED HEAVILY COLD.                             
MODELS (GFS ECMWF GLOBAL) DO AGREE THAT ANOTHER SHOT                            
OF VERY COLD WEATHER WILL ARRIVE NEXT WEEKEND.   GW                             
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
TUL   72  21  28  20 /  10  30  10  20                                          
FSM   73  31  33  29 /  30  70  10  30                                          
MLC   74  25  32  27 /  10  40  10  20                                          
BVO   68  18  25  20 /  10  30  10  20                                          
FYV   67  22  28  25 /  30  60  10  30                                          
BYV   65  22  25  21 /  40  70  10  30                                          
MKO   72  24  28  21 /  20  30  10  20                                          
MIO   68  20  26  19 /  20  50  10  20                                          
F10   73  24  29  21 /  10  30  10  20                                          
HHW   73  33  37  31 /  20  40  20  40                                          
&&                                                                              
.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
OK...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM SUNDAY FOR OKZ054-OKZ055-OKZ056-OKZ057-           
     OKZ058-OKZ059-OKZ060-OKZ061-OKZ062-OKZ063-OKZ064-OKZ065-                   
     OKZ066-OKZ067-OKZ068-OKZ069-OKZ070-OKZ071-OKZ072-OKZ073-                   
     OKZ074.                                                                    
AR...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM SUNDAY FOR ARZ001-ARZ002-ARZ010-ARZ011.           
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHORT TERM...14                                                                 
LONG TERM....15                                                                 
</pre> ok                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR SOUTHEAST SD/SOUTHWEST MN/NORTHWEST IA             
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD                                         
459 AM CST SUN DEC 14 2008                                                      
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
HAS TAKEN A LITTLE WHILE FOR PRECIP TO PUSH INTO FAR WESTERN CWA THIS           
MORNING...AS MID LEVEL FRONT REMAINED WEST OF THE AREA UNTIL UPPER              
LEVEL WAVE BEGAN TO ADVANCE TOWARD THE AREA OUT OF WYOMING. SURFACE             
OBSERVATIONS IN THE WEST BEGAN REPORTING BLOWING SNOW EVEN IN ADVANCE           
OF THE FALLING PRECIP THOUGH...EVIDENCE OF THE POWERFUL WINDS BEHIND            
THE SURFACE LOW...WHICH IS LOCATED BETWEEN KSUX-KCKP IN NORTHWEST               
IOWA AS OF 10Z. VERY IMPRESSIVE TEMPERATURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE                 
SURFACE BOUNDARY...WITH 10Z OBSERVATIONS SHOWING 20-25F SPREAD                  
BETWEEN I-29 CORRIDOR AND JAMES VALLEY. RUC AND NAM 2 METER TEMPS               
SEEMED TO HAVE TO BEST HANDLE ON THE SHARP GRADIENT SO FAR...AND                
HAVE USED THEM AS A GUIDE FOR PUSHING THE COLD AIR THROUGH EASTERN              
CWA THIS MORNING.                                                               
BACK TO THE PRECIP...ECHOES HAVE EXPANDED WEST OF THE JAMES RIVER IN            
THE LAST HOUR OR TWO...AND GENERAL IDEA OF LIFTING HEAVIEST OF PRECIP           
ACROSS THE WEST AND FAR NORTH PORTIONS OF THE CWA STILL LOOKS VERY              
REASONABLE GIVEN DEEPER MOISTURE AND FOCUS OF DEEP ISENTROPIC LIFT IN           
ADVANCE OF THE UPPER WAVE IN THESE AREAS. WEAKLY STABLE PROFILE ABOVE           
THE MID LEVEL FRONT COULD IN FACT ENHANCE SNOWFALL AMOUNTS...AND HAVE           
BUMPED TOTALS UP TO A MAX AROUND 8 INCHES OR A LITTLE MORE ALONG AND            
NORTH OF HIGHWAY 14 IN EAST CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA...WITH HIGHER                  
AMOUNTS POSSIBLE FARTHER NORTH OF OUR CWA. LITTLE CHANGE TO GOING               
WINTER HEADLINES. WILL KEEP BLIZZARD WARNING GOING IN AREA WHERE                
GREATEST SNOWFALL OF 4 TO 8 INCHES IS EXPECTED...WITH WINTER WEATHER            
ADVISORY MAINLY FOR BLOWING SNOW THREAT FARTHER SOUTHEAST WHERE SNOW            
ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE MORE LIMITED. ONLY REAL CHANGE TO THE HEADLINES           
AT THIS POINT WAS TO EXTEND THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY END TIME TO             
MATCH UP WITH BLIZZARD WARNING EXPIRATION AT 06Z TONIGHT. THOUGH SNOW           
WILL BE WINDING DOWN THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING AS THE WAVE             
LIFTS NORTHEAST...STRONG WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE BLOWING SNOW            
THREAT INTO THE EVENING. WINDS STRONG ENOUGH...IN FACT...THAT EVEN              
OUR FAR SOUTHEAST CWA WILL GET IN ON THE HEADLINES THOUGH...WITH A              
WIND ADVISORY FROM SOUTHEAST OF A KSUX-KSPW LINE INTO THE EARLY                 
EVENING.                                                                        
FOCUS OF CONCERN SHIFTS TO ARCTIC AIR AND DANGEROUS WIND CHILLS                 
VALUES OVERNIGHT AND REALLY THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY BEFORE SURFACE               
RIDGE MOVES IN AND ALLOWS WINDS TO DROP OFF. GOING LOW TEMPS IN THE             
10 TO 15 BELOW RANGE NORTH OF I-90 TONIGHT...COMBINED WITH PERSISTENT           
NORTHWEST WINDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH WILL LIKELY FORCE WIND CHILLS INTO              
WARNING RANGE FOR LATE TONIGHT/EARLY MONDAY. HOWEVER...WITH BLIZZARD            
JUST STARTING TO CRANK UP ACROSS THE AREA...DID NOT WANT TO MUDDLE              
HEADLINES BY ADDING IN WIND CHILL HEADLINE JUST YET. WILL HIGHLIGHT             
BITTERLY COLD WIND CHILLS IN THE FORECAST/HWO FOR NOW.                          
STILL LOOKS FAVORABLE FOR MORE ACCUMULATING SNOW ON TUESDAY AS                  
ANOTHER WAVE LIFTS NORTHEAST THROUGH THE VERY COLD AIR IN PLACE.                
CONTINUED WITH LIKELY POPS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN/SOUTHEASTERN CWA WITH            
2-3 INCHES POSSIBLE.                                                            
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
STRONG STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING WIDESPREAD IFR CIGS AND IFR-LIFR VSBYS           
EXPECTED IN SN/BLSN TO MUCH OF THE AREA TODAY. BLIZZARD CONDITIONS              
WITH SFC WNDS 30-40KTS AND VLIFR VSBYS IN SN/BLSN WILL BE MOST                  
PREVALENT NORTHWEST OF KYKN-KFSD-KMWM LINE THROUGH THE DAY...WITH               
CONDITIONS GRADUALLY IMPROVING FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST TONIGHT              
INTO MONDAY AS LOW PRESSURE LIFTS AWAY FROM THE AREA AND SURFACE                
GRADIENT BEGINS TO RELAX.                                                       
&&                                                                              
.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
IA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR IAZ001-             
     012-020.                                                                   
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR IAZ002-             
     003-013.                                                                   
     WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 9 PM CST THIS EVENING             
     FOR IAZ014-021-022-031-032.                                                
MN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR MNZ080-             
     089-097-098.                                                               
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR MNZ081-             
     090.                                                                       
     BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR MNZ071-072.                
NE...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR NEZ013.             
     WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 9 PM CST THIS EVENING             
     FOR NEZ014.                                                                
SD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR SDZ061-             
     062-065>071.                                                               
     BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR SDZ038>040-050-            
     052>060-063-064.                                                           
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
 JH                                                                             
</pre> sd                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL                                         
305 PM EST SUN DEC 14 2008                                                      
...UPDATED FOR CHANGE IN SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY STATUS...                         
.SYNOPSIS/UPDATE...                                                             
20Z WATER VAPOR AND H4 RUC ANALYSIS SHOWS GENERAL LONGWAVE TROUGHING            
ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS WITH LONGWAVE RIDGING ALONG THE EASTERN                
SEABOARD. EMBEDDED WITHIN THE MAIN WESTERN TROUGH WE FIND A SERIES              
OF STRONG MID-LEVEL IMPULSES EJECTING OUT OF THE FOUR-CORNERS REGION            
AND INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS/UPPER MIDWEST. ASSOCIATED WITH THE                  
LEADING IMPULSE WE ARE FINDING A POTENT AREA OF LOW PRESSURE                    
CURRENTLY OVER WESTERN WISCONSIN. IMPRESSIVE TEMPERATURE GRADIENT               
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST THIS AFTERNOON.               
MUCH OF WISCONSIN CURRENTLY IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S ON THE                
EASTERN SIDE OF THE SYSTEM WHILE LOCATIONS BACK ACROSS MN ARE SEEING            
TEMPERATURES DROPPING THROUGH THE SINGLE DIGITS AND BELOW ZERO WITH             
STRONG NORTH FLOW AND BLIZZARD CONDITIONS UNDERWAY.                             
CLOSER TO HOME...SOUTHERN STREAM FLOW IS RIDING NORTHEAST ACROSS                
MEXICO AND THEN ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF COAST. NO LACK OF UPPER                
LEVEL MOISTURE SPREADING INTO THE SOUTHEAST WITH THIS FLOW. WE WILL             
CONTINUE TO SEE THIS PATTERN OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO WITH PERIODS              
OF MID/UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS...ESPECIALLY OVER THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN            
PORTIONS OF THE AREA. ANY SIGNIFICANT NORTHERN STREAM WEATHER WILL              
REMAIN FAR TO OUR NORTH.                                                        
AT THE SURFACE...FORECAST AREA IS LOCATED IN REGION OF SOUTHEAST                
FLOW BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OFF THE CAROLINA COAST AND A                
STRONG COLD FRONT RUNNING NORTH TO SOUTH THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE              
COUNTRY. THIS FLOW WILL CONTINUE INTO MONDAY BRINGING PLENTY OF LOW             
LEVEL MOISTURE INTO THE SOUTHEAST.                                              
SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)...                                   
THROUGH TONIGHT...CLOUDS HAVE DONE A GOOD JOB OF BREAKING UP TO                 
PRODUCE A MIX OF SUN AND CLOUDS OVER THE WEST THIS AFTERNOON WITH               
THE BACK EDGE OF THE CLOUDS PULLING BACK TO THE EAST ACROSS THE                 
APALACHICOLA RIVER. WILL BE INTERESTING TO SEE JUST HOW MUCH OF THIS            
LOWER TO MID-LEVEL CLOUD REDEVELOP DURING THE OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE              
WEST. THIS IS A TRICKY SKY FORECAST INTO MONDAY MORNING BUT WITH THE            
SOUTHEAST FLOW IN PLACE...WILL ONCE AGAIN GO WITH THE STRATUS                   
DEVELOPMENT EVEN FOR PLACES THAT HAVE BROKEN OUT INTO SUN THIS                  
AFTERNOON. AN AREA OF LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE TO OUR WEST HAS RESULTED            
IN A FEW SHOWERS THROUGH THE DAY OVER TOWARD MOBILE. AS A WEAK                  
MID-LEVEL SOUTHERN STREAM IMPULSE PROGGED BY THE GFS/NAM APPROACHES             
LATER TONIGHT THESE SCT SHOWERS MAY TRY TO MOVE A BIT FURTHER EAST              
AND HAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE POP GENERALLY WEST OF A LINE FROM PANAMA               
CITY TO DOTHAN AFTER MIDNIGHT.                                                  
TRAILING SURFACE BOUNDARY FROM LOW PRESSURE PASSING THROUGH THE                 
GREAT LAKES WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST ON MONDAY. GUIDANCE IS             
UNANIMOUS IN SLOWING THE PROGRESS OF THIS BOUNDARY AS IT RUNS INTO A            
STRONG MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IN PLACE ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO.                
THIS FRONT IS THEN FORECAST TO STALL JUST OUTSIDE OF OUR WESTERN                
AND NORTHERN ZONES LATER MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. CAN NOT RULE OUT A FEW            
SHOWERS DURING THIS TIME FRAME AS THE LOW LEVEL FOCUS OF THE FRONT              
COMBINES WITH THE CONTINUED SERIES OF MID-LEVEL IMPULSES RIDING THE             
SOUTHERN STREAM. THE ORIENTATION OF THE IMPULSES SUGGEST THE BEST               
CHANCES TO SEE A PASSING SHOWER OR TWO WOULD BE ACROSS WALTON COUNTY            
INTO SOUTHEAST ALABAMA. HOWEVER...ANY RAINFALL WILL NOT BE A BIG                
DEAL WITH VERY LITTLE IN THE WAY OF ACCUMULATION AND WILL KEEP POPS             
LOW. NOT ANTICIPATING ANY TYPE OF RAINFALL THAT WOULD HAVE AN                   
ADDITIONAL IMPACT ON THE RIVERS THAT ARE CURRENTLY AT OR NEAR FLOOD             
STAGE ACROSS THE WESTERN/NORTHERN ZONES.                                        
TUESDAY INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY WILL BE WATCHING A STRONG PIECE OF UPPER           
LEVEL ENERGY DIVING SOUTH ALONG THE COAST OF CALIFORNIA. THIS WILL              
RESULT IN AN AMPLIFICATION OF THE WESTERN CONUS TROUGH. IN                      
RESPONSE...SHOULD SEE AN AMPLIFICATION OF THE MID-LEVEL RIDGING TO              
OUR SOUTH UP INTO THE CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST GULF COAST. OLD FRONTAL             
BOUNDARY TO OUR NORTHWEST WILL THEN RETREAT BACK NORTH INTO THE                 
TENNESSEE VALLEY...TAKING THE BEST FOCUS FOR ANY SCATTERED SHOWERS              
WITH IT. THE OVERALL PATTERN ACROSS THE GULF AND OUR FORECAST AREA              
BY THE END OF THE SHORT-TERM PERIOD IS TAKING ON ALMOST A                       
SUMMER-LIKE APPEARANCE WITH A STRONG 590DM H5 RIDGE BUILDING                    
OVERHEAD AND SURFACE RIDGING PUSHING BACK ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF              
OF THE FL PENINSULA.                                                            
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL.            
TONIGHT WILL SEE TEMPS GENERALLY IN THE LOWER 50S INLAND AND THE                
MIDDLE TO UPPER 50S ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST. MONDAY NIGHT AND                 
TUESDAY NIGHT SHOULD EVEN EDGE UP A FEW MORE DEGREES. HIGH                      
TEMPERATURES TOMORROW RANGING FROM THE UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70 FAR                 
NORTHWEST AND THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S ELSEWHERE. ONLY OTHER                     
EXCEPTION WOULD BE ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COASTS OF FRANKLIN AND                   
WAKULLA COUNTIES WHERE THE FLOW OFF THE RELATIVELY COOLER WATERS OF             
APALACHEE BAY WILL HOLD TEMPS BACK IN THE UPPER 60S. WIDESPREAD                 
MIDDLE 70S ARE THEN ANTICIPATED FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON AWAY FROM                 
THE COAST.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...DEEP LAYER RIDGE WILL BE                
THE MAIN WX PLAYER THROUGH MUCH OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD. AS THE RIDGE            
AMPLIFIES WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...ATMOSPHERE SHOULD DRY OUT AND                
WARM UP WITH TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO APPROACH 80 DEGREES AWAY FROM             
THE IMMEDIATE COAST.                                                            
THE RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN ON FRIDAY AS A LONG WAVE TROUGH                  
DEEPENS OVER THE CENTRAL PART OF THE COUNTRY. LONG RANGE GUIDANCE IN            
GOOD AGREEMENT ON PUSHING A MOISTURE STARVED FRONT THROUGH THE                  
REGION SOMETIME LATE SATURDAY OR EARLY SUNDAY. A COOLER AIR MASS                
WILL PUSH IN BEHIND THE FRONT FOR SUNDAY WITH TEMPERATURES DROPPING             
BACK BELOW CLIMO.                                                               
&&                                                                              
.MARINE...                                                                      
FAIRLY TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT CONTINUES THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT                  
BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE WELL TO OUR NORTHEAST AND A SLOWLY APPROACHING            
FRONT WELL TO OUR WEST. ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS ARE SLOWLY SUBSIDING               
ACROSS THE WESTERN MARINE ZONES...HOWEVER SEAS ARE SLOWER TO RESPOND            
AND WILL EXTEND THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN LEGS INTO              
THE MIDDLE EVENING HOURS. HOWEVER...BOATERS SHOULD STILL EXERCISE               
CAUTION ACROSS ALL MARINE ZONES AS WIND AND SEAS REMAIN ELEVATED                
INTO MONDAY MORNING. THE HIGH CENTER WEAKENS TO OUR NORTHEAST DURING            
MONDAY ALLOWING THE GRADIENT TO BEGIN TO RELAX. SHOULD SEE WINDS AND            
SEAS FALL BELOW HEADLINE CRITERIA DURING MONDAY...AND THEN REMAIN               
LOW INTO THE MIDDLE PORTION OF THE WEEK AS A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH                 
PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO.                            
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
LOWERING CEILINGS TONIGHT AS MORE WARM AND MOIST AIR STREAMS IN FROM            
THE SOUTHEAST. EXPECT MVFR CIGS BY LATE EVENING AND IFR CIGS AND                
VISBY BY EARLY MORNING ALL TERMINALS.                                           
&&                                                                              
.FIRE WX...                                                                     
WITH SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH WIND FLOW OVER NEXT SEVERAL DAYS THERE WILL             
BE ENOUGH MOISTURE IN THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE TO KEEP RH LEVELS WELL               
OUT OF CRITICAL RANGE. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN OR SHOWERS WILL BE               
SEEN THROUGH TUESDAY.                                                           
&&                                                                              
.HYDROLOGY...                                                                   
RESIDENTS LIVING ALONG THE MANY SWOLLEN RIVERS ACROSS THE WESTERN               
AND NORTHERN FORECAST AREA SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE RIVERS AND            
LAKES AHPS WEB PAGE (HTTP://AHPS.SRH.NOAA.GOV/INDEX.PHP?WFO=TAE) FOR            
THE LATEST RIVER STAGES AND FORECASTS. THE LATEST FLOOD WARNINGS AND            
FLOOD STATEMENTS CAN ALSO BE FOUND AT THIS SITE AND ON NOAA WEATHER             
RADIO.                                                                          
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
TALLAHASSEE  52  74  55  75  56 /  10  15  10  10  10                           
PANAMA CITY  58  72  59  73  61 /  10  25  10  10  10                           
DOTHAN       52  70  55  74  58 /  20  30  10  20  20                           
ALBANY       50  72  54  75  57 /  10  20  10  10  10                           
VALDOSTA     52  74  54  75  55 /  10  15  10  10  10                           
CROSS CITY   52  77  54  78  55 /  10  15  10  10  10                           
&&                                                                              
.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
AL...NONE.                                                                      
GA...NONE.                                                                      
FL...NONE.                                                                      
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR THE                   
     FOLLOWING ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM APALACHICOLA TO DESTIN FL             
     OUT 20 NM...WATERS FROM APALACHICOLA TO DESTIN FL FROM 20 TO 60            
     NM.                                                                        
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM/MARINE...MROCZKA                                            
AVIATION/FIRE WEATHER...GOREE                                                   
LONG TERM...CAMP                                                                
</pre> fl                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL                                         
305 PM EST SUN DEC 14 2008                                                      
.SYNOPSIS/UPDATE...                                                             
20Z WATER VAPOR AND H4 RUC ANALYSIS SHOWS GENERAL LONGWAVE TROUGHING            
ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS WITH LONGWAVE RIDGING ALONG THE EASTERN                
SEABOARD. EMBEDDED WITHIN THE MAIN WESTERN TROUGH WE FIND A SERIES              
OF STRONG MID-LEVEL IMPULSES EJECTING OUT OF THE FOUR-CORNERS REGION            
AND INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS/UPPER MIDWEST. ASSOCIATED WITH THE                  
LEADING IMPULSE WE ARE FINDING A POTENT AREA OF LOW PRESSURE                    
CURRENTLY OVER WESTERN WISCONSIN. IMPRESSIVE TEMPERATURE GRADIENT               
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST THIS AFTERNOON.               
MUCH OF WISCONSIN CURRENTLY IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S ON THE                
EASTERN SIDE OF THE SYSTEM WHILE LOCATIONS BACK ACROSS MN ARE SEEING            
TEMPERATURES DROPPING THROUGH THE SINGLE DIGITS AND BELOW ZERO WITH             
STRONG NORTH FLOW AND BLIZZARD CONDITIONS UNDERWAY.                             
CLOSER TO HOME...SOUTHERN STREAM FLOW IS RIDING NORTHEAST ACROSS                
MEXICO AND THEN ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF COAST. NO LACK OF UPPER                
LEVEL MOISTURE SPREADING INTO THE SOUTHEAST WITH THIS FLOW. WE WILL             
CONTINUE TO SEE THIS PATTERN OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO WITH PERIODS              
OF MID/UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS...ESPECIALLY OVER THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN            
PORTIONS OF THE AREA. ANY SIGNIFICANT NORTHERN STREAM WEATHER WILL              
REMAIN FAR TO OUR NORTH.                                                        
AT THE SURFACE...FORECAST AREA IS LOCATED IN REGION OF SOUTHEAST                
FLOW BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OFF THE CAROLINA COAST AND A                
STRONG COLD FRONT RUNNING NORTH TO SOUTH THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE              
COUNTRY. THIS FLOW WILL CONTINUE INTO MONDAY BRINGING PLENTY OF LOW             
LEVEL MOISTURE INTO THE SOUTHEAST.                                              
SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)...                                   
THROUGH TONIGHT...CLOUDS HAVE DONE A GOOD JOB OF BREAKING UP TO                 
PRODUCE A MIX OF SUN AND CLOUDS OVER THE WEST THIS AFTERNOON WITH               
THE BACK EDGE OF THE CLOUDS PULLING BACK TO THE EAST ACROSS THE                 
APALACHICOLA RIVER. WILL BE INTERESTING TO SEE JUST HOW MUCH OF THIS            
LOWER TO MID-LEVEL CLOUD REDEVELOP DURING THE OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE              
WEST. THIS IS A TRICKY SKY FORECAST INTO MONDAY MORNING BUT WITH THE            
SOUTHEAST FLOW IN PLACE...WILL ONCE AGAIN GO WITH THE STRATUS                   
DEVELOPMENT EVEN FOR PLACES THAT HAVE BROKEN OUT INTO SUN THIS                  
AFTERNOON. AN AREA OF LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE TO OUR WEST HAS RESULTED            
IN A FEW SHOWERS THROUGH THE DAY OVER TOWARD MOBILE. AS A WEAK                  
MID-LEVEL SOUTHERN STREAM IMPULSE PROGGED BY THE GFS/NAM APPROACHES             
LATER TONIGHT THESE SCT SHOWERS MAY TRY TO MOVE A BIT FURTHER EAST              
AND HAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE POP GENERALLY WEST OF A LINE FROM PANAMA               
CITY TO DOTHAN AFTER MIDNIGHT.                                                  
TRAILING SURFACE BOUNDARY FROM LOW PRESSURE PASSING THROUGH THE                 
GREAT LAKES WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST ON MONDAY. GUIDANCE IS             
UNANIMOUS IN SLOWING THE PROGRESS OF THIS BOUNDARY AS IT RUNS INTO A            
STRONG MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IN PLACE ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO.                
THIS FRONT IS THEN FORECAST TO STALL JUST OUTSIDE OF OUR WESTERN                
AND NORTHERN ZONES LATER MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. CAN NOT RULE OUT A FEW            
SHOWERS DURING THIS TIME FRAME AS THE LOW LEVEL FOCUS OF THE FRONT              
COMBINES WITH THE CONTINUED SERIES OF MID-LEVEL IMPULSES RIDING THE             
SOUTHERN STREAM. THE ORIENTATION OF THE IMPULSES SUGGEST THE BEST               
CHANCES TO SEE A PASSING SHOWER OR TWO WOULD BE ACROSS WALTON COUNTY            
INTO SOUTHEAST ALABAMA. HOWEVER...ANY RAINFALL WILL NOT BE A BIG                
DEAL WITH VERY LITTLE IN THE WAY OF ACCUMULATION AND WILL KEEP POPS             
LOW. NOT ANTICIPATING ANY TYPE OF RAINFALL THAT WOULD HAVE AN                   
ADDITIONAL IMPACT ON THE RIVERS THAT ARE CURRENTLY AT OR NEAR FLOOD             
STAGE ACROSS THE WESTERN/NORTHERN ZONES.                                        
TUESDAY INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY WILL BE WATCHING A STRONG PIECE OF UPPER           
LEVEL ENERGY DIVING SOUTH ALONG THE COAST OF CALIFORNIA. THIS WILL              
RESULT IN AN AMPLIFICATION OF THE WESTERN CONUS TROUGH. IN                      
RESPONSE...SHOULD SEE AN AMPLIFICATION OF THE MID-LEVEL RIDGING TO              
OUR SOUTH UP INTO THE CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST GULF COAST. OLD FRONTAL             
BOUNDARY TO OUR NORTHWEST WILL THEN RETREAT BACK NORTH INTO THE                 
TENNESSEE VALLEY...TAKING THE BEST FOCUS FOR ANY SCATTERED SHOWERS              
WITH IT. THE OVERALL PATTERN ACROSS THE GULF AND OUR FORECAST AREA              
BY THE END OF THE SHORT-TERM PERIOD IS TAKING ON ALMOST A                       
SUMMER-LIKE APPEARANCE WITH A STRONG 590DM H5 RIDGE BUILDING                    
OVERHEAD AND SURFACE RIDGING PUSHING BACK ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF              
OF THE FL PENINSULA.                                                            
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL.            
TONIGHT WILL SEE TEMPS GENERALLY IN THE LOWER 50S INLAND AND THE                
MIDDLE TO UPPER 50S ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST. MONDAY NIGHT AND                 
TUESDAY NIGHT SHOULD EVEN EDGE UP A FEW MORE DEGREES. HIGH                      
TEMPERATURES TOMORROW RANGING FROM THE UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70 FAR                 
NORTHWEST AND THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S ELSEWHERE. ONLY OTHER                     
EXCEPTION WOULD BE ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COASTS OF FRANKLIN AND                   
WAKULLA COUNTIES WHERE THE FLOW OFF THE RELATIVELY COOLER WATERS OF             
APALACHEE BAY WILL HOLD TEMPS BACK IN THE UPPER 60S. WIDESPREAD                 
MIDDLE 70S ARE THEN ANTICIPATED FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON AWAY FROM                 
THE COAST.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...DEEP LAYER RIDGE WILL BE                
THE MAIN WX PLAYER THROUGH MUCH OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD. AS THE RIDGE            
AMPLIFIES WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...ATMOSPHERE SHOULD DRY OUT AND                
WARM UP WITH TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO APPROACH 80 DEGREES AWAY FROM             
THE IMMEDIATE COAST.                                                            
THE RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN ON FRIDAY AS A LONG WAVE TROUGH                  
DEEPENS OVER THE CENTRAL PART OF THE COUNTRY. LONG RANGE GUIDANCE IN            
GOOD AGREEMENT ON PUSHING A MOISTURE STARVED FRONT THROUGH THE                  
REGION SOMETIME LATE SATURDAY OR EARLY SUNDAY. A COOLER AIR MASS                
WILL PUSH IN BEHIND THE FRONT FOR SUNDAY WITH TEMPERATURES DROPPING             
BACK BELOW CLIMO.                                                               
&&                                                                              
.MARINE...                                                                      
FAIRLY TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT CONTINUES THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT                  
BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE WELL TO OUR NORTHEAST AND A SLOWLY APPROACHING            
FRONT WELL TO OUR WEST. ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS AND SEAS ARE SLOWLY                
SUBSIDING ACROSS THE WESTERN MARINE ZONES AND WILL ALLOW THE CURRENT            
ADVISORY TO EXPIRE AT 4 PM. HOWEVER...BOATERS SHOULD STILL EXERCISE             
CAUTION ACROSS ALL MARINE ZONES AS WIND AND SEAS REMAIN ELEVATED                
INTO MONDAY MORNING. THE HIGH CENTER WEAKENS TO OUR NORTHEAST DURING            
MONDAY ALLOWING THE GRADIENT TO BEGIN TO RELAX. SHOULD SEE WINDS AND            
SEAS FALL BELOW HEADLINE CRITERIA DURING MONDAY...AND THEN REMAIN               
LOW INTO THE MIDDLE PORTION OF THE WEEK AS A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH                 
PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO.                            
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
LOWERING CEILINGS TONIGHT AS MORE WARM AND MOIST AIR STREAMS IN FROM            
THE SOUTHEAST. EXPECT MVFR CIGS BY LATE EVENING AND IFR CIGS AND                
VISBY BY EARLY MORNING ALL TERMINALS.                                           
&&                                                                              
.FIRE WX...                                                                     
WITH SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH WIND FLOW OVER NEXT SEVERAL DAYS THERE WILL             
BE ENOUGH MOISTURE IN THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE TO KEEP RH LEVELS WELL               
OUT OF CRITICAL RANGE. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN OR SHOWERS WILL BE               
SEEN THROUGH TUESDAY.                                                           
&&                                                                              
.HYDROLOGY...                                                                   
RESIDENTS LIVING ALONG THE MANY SWOLLEN RIVERS ACROSS THE WESTERN               
AND NORTHERN FORECAST AREA SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE RIVERS AND            
LAKES AHPS WEB PAGE (HTTP://AHPS.SRH.NOAA.GOV/INDEX.PHP?WFO=TAE) FOR            
THE LATEST RIVER STAGES AND FORECASTS. THE LATEST FLOOD WARNINGS AND            
FLOOD STATEMENTS CAN ALSO BE FOUND AT THIS SITE AND ON NOAA WEATHER             
RADIO.                                                                          
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
TALLAHASSEE  52  74  55  75  56 /  10  15  10  10  10                           
PANAMA CITY  58  72  59  73  61 /  10  25  10  10  10                           
DOTHAN       52  70  55  74  58 /  20  30  10  20  20                           
ALBANY       50  72  54  75  57 /  10  20  10  10  10                           
VALDOSTA     52  74  54  75  55 /  10  15  10  10  10                           
CROSS CITY   52  77  54  78  55 /  10  15  10  10  10                           
&&                                                                              
.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
AL...NONE.                                                                      
GA...NONE.                                                                      
FL...NONE.                                                                      
GM...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM/MARINE...MROCZKA                                            
AVIATION/FIRE WEATHER...GOREE                                                   
LONG TERM...CAMP                                                                
</pre> fl                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL                                             
205 PM CST SUN DEC 14 2008                                                      
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
ISSUED 130 PM CST SUN DEC 14 2008                                               
ARCTIC COLD FRONT RACING EWD ACRS EAST CNTRL IOWA EARLY THIS AFTN               
AND THAT WILL BE OUR WX MAKER...AT LEAST IN THE SHORT TERM...WITH               
PRECIP CHANCES...TYPES AND AMOUNTS TNT THE MAIN CONCERN. TEMPERATURES           
DROP OFF RAPIDLY BEHIND THE FRONT AND EXPECT TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY             
TO BE SOME 25 TO 35 DEGREES COLDER THAN TODAY. ALREADY SEEING AN                
INCREASE IN RADAR RETURNS IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE STRONG COLD FRONT              
IN NRN MO AND ERN IOWA...INDICATIVE OF AN INCREASING TREND IN                   
700-500 MB FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING. THIS TREND WL CONTINUE INTO                 
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS THE FRONT PUSHES TO OUR EAST AFTR MIDNIGHT.              
CONCERN ON MONDAY WL BE JUST HOW QUICKLY THE PRECIP ENDS...ESP IN               
THE SOUTHEAST WHERE THE BNDRY IS EXPECTED TO SLOW DOWN SOME.                    
NEXT FORECAST CHALLENGE WL BE WITH SNOW AND OR FREEZING RAIN AMTS               
WITH TUESDAYS SYSTEM...WITH ANOTHER SOUTHWEST WAVE PUSHING IN LATER             
ON THURSDAY BRINGING ADDL PRECIP TO THE FORECAST AREA FOR THE END               
OF THE WEEK.                                                                    
SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY                                          
HAVE USED A BLEND OF THE NAM AND LOCAL ARW MODEL WITH THE TIMING                
OF THE COLD FRONT ACRS THE FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING. SO FAR...THE             
ARW MODEL HAS BEEN THE QUICKEST AND HAS BEEN VERIFYING THRU EARLY               
THIS AFTN. WITH THE INCRG FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING IMMEDIATELY BEHIND            
THE ARCTIC BNDRY...EXPECT THE PRECIP COVERAGE TO INCREASE AS WELL               
AS THE SYSTEM TRANSLATES EAST THIS EVENING. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOWING          
SOME DECENT LAPSE RATES AS WELL...ESP ACRS THE SOUTHEAST LATER                  
THIS EVENING WITH HI RES MODELS SUGGESTING SOME BANDING OF THE                  
PRECIP PSBL EARLY THIS EVENING. COULD SEE SOME ISOLD THUNDER WITH               
THE INITIAL BAND OF RAIN JUST AHEAD OF THE ARCTIC FRONT...ESP ACRS              
THE SOUTHEAST THIS EVENING.                                                     
THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN BECOMES HOW QUICKLY THE COLD AIR GETS                 
INTO THE AREA. BASED ON TIMING OF THE CURRENT POSITION (18Z) OF                 
THE FRONT...WE SHOULD SEE TEMPS START TO DROP OFF RAPIDLY IN THE                
WEST ARND 00Z AND NEAR THE I-55 CORRIDOR ARND 03Z WITH COUNTIES                 
ACRS THE SOUTHEAST SEEING THE BNDRY ENTER THEIR AREA JUST AFTR                  
06Z. NAM BUFKIT SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST A BRIEF PERIOD WHERE              
THE RAIN GOES OVER TO FREEZING RAIN...AND THEN TO SLEET AND SNOW                
BEFORE THE MOISTURE DEPARTS AT THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS LATE THIS               
EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. LOOKING FOR AROUND A TENTH OF AN              
INCH OF ICE WITH AN INCH OR LESS OF SNOW WITH THIS FAST MOVING                  
FRONTAL BOUNDARY. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BOTTOM OUT IN THE                
SINGLE DIGITS NW TO THE UPPER 20S FAR SE BY DAWN MONDAY WITH NEAR               
OR SUBZERO WIND CHILLS WEST OF I-55. QUITE A CHANGE IN 24 HOURS!                
BASED ON THE EXPECTED FREEZING RAIN...SLEET AND LIGHT SNOW TONIGHT              
INTO THE MONDAY MRNG RUSH HOUR...HAVE GONE WITH A WINTER WEATHER                
ADVSY FOR LIGHT ICING THAT WILL EXTEND INTO MONDAY MRNG.                        
MUCH COLDER WEATHER TO FOLLOW FOR MONDAY WITH TEMPERATURES HAVING               
A TOUGH TIME GETTING OUT OF THE TEENS IN THE NW. HAVE TRENDED TWDS              
THE COLDER MET GUIDANCE FOR TOMORROW. MODELS INSIST THE PRECIP                  
SHIELD SHOULD PUSH SOUTH AND EAST OF OUR AREA TMRW AFTN BUT IT WL               
BE CLOSE FOR OUR I-70 COUNTIES. HOWEVER...BASED ON WHAT IS HAPPENING            
WITH THE FRONTAL MOVMENT THIS AFTN OUT TO OUR WEST...FEEL THE ARW               
SOLUTION LOOKS A BIT BETTER THAN THE NAM. THE NAM DOES BRING ANOTHER            
WAVE OF FREEZING RAIN AND SNOW INTO SE IL BY LATE TMRW AFTN AND EVE.            
FOR NOW WL KEEP THE PRECIP JUST TO OUR SOUTH MONDAY AFTN AND EVENING.           
NEXT WAVE WL TRACK INTO THE SRN PLAINS EARLY ON TUESDAY AND BEGIN               
TO SWING NE INTO THE MIDWEST. IMPRESSIVE ISENT LIFT NOTED ON THE                
295K SFC WITH MIXING RATIOS OF 4 TO 6 G/KG UPSTREAM FROM OUR AREA.              
HOWEVER...IT APPEARS THE SYSTEM SPEED WL HELP TO CUT BACK ON THE                
SNOW AMTS ACRS OUR NORTH AND NW...WHILE WARMER THERMAL PROFILES TO              
THE SOUTH SUGGEST MORE OF A MIX OF SNOW...SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN               
ON TUESDAY BEFORE THE SYSTEM PULLS OUT TUE EVENING. SNOWFALL AMTS               
OF 3 TO 5 INCHES LOOK REASONABLE AT THIS POINT...MAINLY NORTH OF                
A RUSHVILLE TO PEORIA TO LACON LINE. MODEL SOUNDINGS HAVE BEEN                  
TRENDING A BIT WARMER OVR THE PAST FEW RUNS...ESP ACRS THE CNTRL                
AND SOUTHERN AREAS...THEREFORE HAVE ADJUSTED MORE TWDS A MIX                    
RATHER THAN STRAIGHT SNOW IN THOSE AREAS.                                       
LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY                                             
ACTIVE WX PATTERN TO CONTINUE ACRS THE FORECAST AREA WITH                       
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW PREVAILING THRU THE PERIOD. NEXT SOUTHWEST WAVE              
WL AFFECT OUR AREA THU AND FRIDAY WITH A MIXED BAG OF PRECIP AT                 
THE ONSET...WITH MODELS TRENDING WARMER WITH THE SFC LOW FCST                   
TO TRACK RIGHT ACRS THE FORECAST AREA. THE LATEST ECMWF INDICATING              
+10 850 TEMPS ACRS OUR SOUTH BY THU AFTN AND EVENING. DEPENDING                 
ON HOW QUICKLY THE ARCTIC AIR MOVES OUT OF THE AREA LATER THIS                  
WEEK WL DETERMINE WHETHER OR NOT WE SEE SIGNIFICANT ICING OR JUST               
RAIN WITH THIS SYSTEM. FOR NOW...WL INCLUDE FREEZING RAIN DURING                
THE MORNING...AND THEN GRDLY TRANSITION TO RAIN FROM SOUTH TO                   
NORTH DURING THE DAY BASED ON THE LATEST ECMWF SFC LOW TRACK.                   
AFTER THE THU AND FRI SYSTEM...ENSEMBLES ARE ALL OVER THE PLACE                 
WITH RESPECT TO THE TIMING OF NEXT SHORTWAVE PRECIP NEXT WEEKEND                
WHICH WILL BE FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER SURGE OF ARCTIC AIR WITH GUID                 
INDICATING -15 TO -20 DEG C AT 850 MB LATE SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY                   
NIGHT.                                                                          
SMITH                                                                           
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
ISSUED 1135 AM CST SUN DEC 14 2008                                              
TIMING OF STRONG COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED WIND/WEATHER IS THE                  
MAIN ISSUE WITH THE 18Z TAFS.                                                   
FRONT HAS PICKED UP SPEED THIS MORNING AND WAS ALREADY MOVING                   
INTO EASTERN IOWA AND NORTH CENTRAL MISSOURI. AWIPS TIME-OF-                    
ARRIVAL TOOL HAS IT REACHING KPIA AROUND 00Z...KSPI/KBMI AROUND                 
02Z...KDEC 04Z AND KCMI 05Z. THIS MATCHES UP WELL WITH THE RUC AND              
ARW-20 MODELS. PRECIPITATION AHEAD OF THIS FRONT WILL START OUT AS              
SOME DRIZZLE...THEN PICK UP IN INTENSITY WITH CEILINGS LOWERING                 
SLIGHTLY. RAPID TEMPERATURE FALLS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL RESULT IN               
PRECIPITATION TRANSITIONING OVER TO FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET FOR                 
2-3 HOURS...BEFORE CHANGING TO SNOW. WESTERN TERMINALS OF                       
KSPI/KPIA SHOULD SEE THE SNOW LARGELY TAPER OFF BY SUNRISE.                     
KEPT MENTION OF WIND SHEAR AT THE BEGINNING OF THE TAF PERIOD.                  
PIREP FROM KMLI AND AIRCRAFT SOUNDING FROM KBMI STILL INDICATE                  
WINDS OF 60-70 KNOTS ONLY ABOUT 2000 FEET OFF THE SURFACE. THE                  
FULL EFFECTS OF THIS HAVENT BEEN ABLE TO MIX DOWN WITH THE                      
INVERSION STILL IN PLACE...BUT SURFACE GUSTS IN THE 30-35 KNOT                  
RANGE ARE STILL EXPECTED TO CONTINUE. WINDS TO REMAIN RATHER GUSTY              
OVERNIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING BEHIND THE FRONT...BUT SHOULD                      
GRADUALLY DIMINISH.                                                             
GEELHART                                                                        
&&                                                                              
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 12 PM CST                      
MONDAY FOR ILZ062-063-066>068-071>073.                                          
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR ILZ038-042>046-                   
051>057-061>063-066>068-071>073.                                                
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM CST                      
MONDAY FOR ILZ027>031-036-037-040-041-047>050.                                  
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 AM CST                      
MONDAY FOR ILZ038-042>046-051>057-061.                                          
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</pre> il                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL                                             
1138 AM CST SUN DEC 14 2008                                                     
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
ISSUED 1104 AM CST SUN DEC 14 2008                                              
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES MADE TO THE GOING FORECAST FOR TONIGHT INTO                 
MONDAY. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOW                  
THE STRONG COLD FRONT MOVING FASTER THAN INITIALLY EXPECTED...HAVING            
ALREADY PASSED DES MOINES AND KANSAS CITY BY 10 AM. FRONT SHOULD                
BE BEGINNING TO MOVE INTO THE WESTERN CWA TOWARD SUNSET...REACHING              
I-55 AROUND 00Z AND THE FAR SOUTHEAST CWA AROUND 08Z. UPSTREAM OBS              
SHOWING CURRENT TEMPERATURES BEHIND THE FRONT IN THE SINGLE DIGITS              
AND TEENS...WITH VERY LOW DEWPOINTS AS WELL. LOW TEMPERATURES WERE              
ADJUSTED DOWNWARD TONIGHT TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS...WITH SOME TWEAKING              
OF THE MONDAY TEMPERATURE GRIDS TO MORE ACCURATELY REFLECT THE                  
HOULRY TRENDS.                                                                  
LATEST NAM-12 MODEL SHOWING PRECIPITATION EXPECTED TO BE MOST                   
WIDESPREAD OVER THE CWA THIS EVENING...TAPERING OFF OVERNIGHT WEST              
OF I-55. MODEL SOUNDINGS STILL SHOWING A TRANSITION TO FREEZING                 
RAIN...SLEET AND SNOW...WITH ONLY A COUPLE HOURS BETWEEN THE                    
LIQUID RAIN AND THE SNOW. AIR TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 40S AND                 
LOWER 50S TODAY SHOULD KEEP THE GROUND LARGELY WARM ENOUGH FROM                 
ANY SIGNIFICANT ICING TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH THE RAIN ON THE GROUND                 
FROM EARLIER WILL QUICKLY FREEZE AS TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN                      
PLUNGING 20-30 DEGREES WITH THE INITIAL FRONTAL PASSAGE.                        
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
ISSUED 1135 AM CST SUN DEC 14 2008                                              
TIMING OF STRONG COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED WIND/WEATHER IS THE                  
MAIN ISSUE WITH THE 18Z TAFS.                                                   
FRONT HAS PICKED UP SPEED THIS MORNING AND WAS ALREADY MOVING                   
INTO EASTERN IOWA AND NORTH CENTRAL MISSOURI. AWIPS TIME-OF-                    
ARRIVAL TOOL HAS IT REACHING KPIA AROUND 00Z...KSPI/KBMI AROUND                 
02Z...KDEC 04Z AND KCMI 05Z. THIS MATCHES UP WELL WITH THE RUC AND              
ARW-20 MODELS. PRECIPITATION AHEAD OF THIS FRONT WILL START OUT AS              
SOME DRIZZLE...THEN PICK UP IN INTENSITY WITH CEILINGS LOWERING                 
SLIGHTLY. RAPID TEMPERATURE FALLS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL RESULT IN               
PRECIPITATION TRANSITIONING OVER TO FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET FOR                 
2-3 HOURS...BEFORE CHANGING TO SNOW. WESTERN TERMINALS OF                       
KSPI/KPIA SHOULD SEE THE SNOW LARGELY TAPER OFF BY SUNRISE.                     
KEPT MENTION OF WIND SHEAR AT THE BEGINNING OF THE TAF PERIOD.                  
PIREP FROM KMLI AND AIRCRAFT SOUNDING FROM KBMI STILL INDICATE                  
WINDS OF 60-70 KNOTS ONLY ABOUT 2000 FEET OFF THE SURFACE. THE                  
FULL EFFECTS OF THIS HAVENT BEEN ABLE TO MIX DOWN WITH THE                      
INVERSION STILL IN PLACE...BUT SURFACE GUSTS IN THE 30-35 KNOT                  
RANGE ARE STILL EXPECTED TO CONTINUE. WINDS TO REMAIN RATHER GUSTY              
OVERNIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING BEHIND THE FRONT...BUT SHOULD                      
GRADUALLY DIMINISH.                                                             
GEELHART                                                                        
&&                                                                              
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR ILZ038-042>046-                   
051>057-061>063-066>068-071>073.                                                
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</pre> il                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA                                          
1135 AM CST SUN DEC 14 2008                                                     
UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION                                                     
.UPDATE /TODAY/...                                                              
COLD FRONT MOVING QUICKER THAN SCHEDULED THROUGH CENTRAL IOWA HAS               
RESULTED IN A COUPLE OF UPDATE CYCLES THIS MORNING. THE LEADING                 
EDGE OF THE ARCTIC AIR IS NOW FROM NEAR MASON CITY TO MARSHALLTOWN              
TO CORYDON. WINDS SHIFT TO THE WEST NORTHWEST BEHIND THE FRONT AND              
STRATUS FILLS IN. FLURRIES OR VERY LIGHT SNOW WILL SPREAD ACROSS                
CENTRAL IOWA THIS AFTERNOON...BUT PROBABLY WON`T AMOUNT TO MUCH                 
ACCUMULATION. TEMPERATURES WILL DROP 25 TO 30 DEGREES IN THE HOUR               
AFTER THE FRONT PASSES...THEN CONTINUE A SLOWER DROP THROUGH                    
TONIGHT. DUE TO FASTER ARRIVAL OF VERY COLD TEMPERATURES ACROSS                 
NORTHWEST IOWA...HAD TO MAKE WIND CHILL ADVISORY IN EFFECT EARLIER              
THAN PREVIOUS HEADLINE INDICATED. HAVE GONE WITH A START TIME OF                
NOON FOR NORTHWEST TIER...AND 6 PM FOR A TIER OF COUNTIES TO THE                
EAST OF THAT. ALL OTHER HEADLINES REMAIN UNCHANGED.                             
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM /TODAY/...                                                          
EVOLUTION OF TEMPS/DEWPOINT...WIND AND PRECIP POTENTIAL OBVIOUSLY               
MAIN QUESTIONS TODAY.  AS IS OFTEN THE CASE WITH SYSTEMS OF THIS                
STRENGTH...MODELS ARE NOT CAPTURING TEMP GRADIENT WELL ON EITHER END            
OF THE EXTREME.  NAM AND ESPECIALLY RUC ARE DOING THE BEST AND WILL             
BE FOLLOWED.  THIS RESULTS IN WARMER TEMPS THAN PREVIOUSLY                      
ANTICIPATED AHEAD OF FROPA...WHICH SHOULD MAINLY AFFECT AREA                    
15-21Z...AND COOLER/DRIER CONDITIONS BEHIND.  WITH SHARPLY                      
INCREASING MSLP GRADIENT AND ISALLOBARIC MAX BEHIND SYSTEM...EXPECT             
WINDS TO JUST ECLIPSE SUSTAINED 30 MPH CRITERIA THIS AFTERNOON AND              
EARLY EVE SO WIND ADVY WILL BE IN EFFECT FOR SMALL PARTS OF WRN/NW              
SECTIONS.  WITH COLD AIR SURGE AND MIXED LAYER FAIRLY SHALLOW /500M/            
DO NOT EXPECT MUCH MORE THAN THAT WITH GUSTS.                                   
MODEL HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT SPITTING OUT LIGHT QPF WITH THE PASSAGE              
OF THIS SYSTEM.  HOWEVER THIS MUST BE FROM SHALLOW MOISTURE AS                  
SOUNDINGS SHOW LITTLE ABOVE 2KM.  THIS IS SOMEWHAT OF A CONCERN                 
HOWEVER BECAUSE MODELS HAVE BEEN EMPHATIC DEVELOPING THIS LOW                   
STRATUS BUT NO SIGNS YET...CIGS STILL 2500FT OR HIGHER.  CONSIDERING            
40+ DEWPOINTS ARE SURGING INTO IA...STILL EXPECT THIS TO HAPPEN BUT             
MAY TAKE LONGER THAN MODELS DEPICT.  THUS STILL HAVE CHANCE/LOW END             
LIKELY POPS...BUT THIS IS MAINLY DUE TO MEASURABLE DRIZZLE MORE THAN            
RAIN.  P-TYPE MAY CHANGE TO LIGHT FRZG RAIN OR FRZG DRZL BEHIND                 
FROPA AND THEN POSSIBLY TO LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES AS DENDRITIC MOISTURE            
INCREASES BEHIND FRONT.  DGZ WILL BE QUITE SHALLOW...NO HIGHER THAN             
1.5KM BY LATE AFTERNOON.  QPF VERY MINIMAL SO NO SIGNIFICANT                    
CONCERNS OR HEADLINES IN THAT REGARD.                                           
.LONG TERM /TONIGHT-SATURDAY/...                                                
STRONG ARCTIC FRONT TO BE NEARLY EAST OF THE AREA BY EARLY TONIGHT              
BUT PLENTY OF DETAILS TO SORT OUT AS IT PASSES. MODELS CONTINUE TO              
HINT AT A SECONDARY BAND OF PRECIP JUST BEHIND THE BOUNDARY WITH                
SOME FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING BETWEEN H750-H600. FORCING AND QPF                 
COMBINED SHOULD RESULT IN A BAND OF ONE TO ONE AND ONE HALF INCH                
OF SNOW ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST DURING THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. WINDS              
ALREADY PICKING UP BY THEN...SO WILL BE LOOKING AT RATHER POOR                  
CONDITIONS FOR A BRIEF TIME THERE WITH LOW VSBYS AND BLOWING SNOW.              
WILL NOT ISSUE ANY HEADLINES FOR POTENTIAL NOW GIVEN THE NUMBER OF              
OTHER CONCERNS TODAY AND TONIGHT. THAT BEING SAID...DAY SHIFT WILL              
HAVE TO WATCH FOR POSSIBLE WINTER WEATHER CONDITIONS THERE LATER                
TODAY. NEXT CONCERN IS THE WIND CHILL FOR TONIGHT. MODELS SETTLING              
IN ON COLDER OVERNIGHT LOWS WITH H850 TEMPS BRUSHING -20C ACROSS                
THE FAR NORTH/EURO AND EVEN COLDER/GFS. UPSTREAM READINGS OF -10F               
OR LOWER TONIGHT WHERE -20C WAS LOCATED OVER THE NORTHERN DAKOTAS               
LATE LAST NIGHT. FEEL MORE CONFIDENT WITH MINS OF NEARLY -10F                   
ACROSS THE NORTH TONIGHT AND NEARING ZERO CENTRAL. WINDS WILL MIX               
AS THE EVENING PROGRESSES WITH 30 TO 35 MPH GUSTS AND SUSTAINED 25              
TO 30 MPH. THIS WILL PULL WIND CHILLS DOWN TO -20F OR LOWER FROM                
HIGHWAY 92 NORTH THROUGH AT LEAST 18Z MONDAY. NORTH OF HIGHWAY                  
20...AM EXPECTING WIND CHILL READINGS TO REMAIN BELOW CRITERIA                  
MOST OF MONDAY AND WILL EXTEND THE ADVISORY THERE ALL DAY.                      
SUBSIDENCE RATHER STRONG AS TONIGHT PROGRESSES...RESULTING IN                   
CLEARING MOST AREAS AS HIGH BUILDS IN FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS               
MONDAY WILL MIX BUT DIMINISH DURING THE DAY AS THE RIDGE FILES                  
THROUGH THE AREA. DAY TIME HIGHS WILL BE VERY COLD...ONLY IN THE                
SINGLE DIGITS TO MID TEENS. ANOTHER VERY COLD NIGHT IS EXPECTED                 
MONDAY NIGHT BUT CLOUD COVER FROM APPROACHING SYSTEM WILL CAP                   
DROP-OFF WEST AND SOUTH. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW                  
PRONOUNCED TROUGH OVER THE WEST COAST TONIGHT WITH NUMEROUS WAVES               
PROPAGATING EAST. MODELS HAVE BEEN ADVERTISING A DECENT                         
OVERRUNNING EVENT FOR TUESDAY FOR THE PAST TWO TO THREE DAYS.                   
STRONG BAROCLINIC ZONE IN PLACE WITH QUICK MOVING H500 WAVE AND                 
MODEST MOISTURE TRANSPORT AT H850 WITH 20 TO 25KT WINDS WILL                    
PROMOTE A LARGE AREA OF SNOWFALL ACROSS IOWA TUESDAY. CURRENT                   
INDICATIONS ARE THAT CONVECTIVE ENHANCEMENT WILL NOT BE A MAJOR                 
ISSUE...THOUGH SLIGHTLY NEG EPV VALUES ARE FORECAST. BUT EVEN WITH              
THAT...SNOWFALL RATIOS OF 17:20:1 AND MODEST LIFT IN THE SNOW                   
GROWTH ZONE DURING THE DAY SHOULD HELP PRODUCE MODERATE TO                      
POSSIBLE HEAVY SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS BETWEEN EARLY AM HOURS                    
SOUTHWEST...TOWARD EAST CENTRAL SECTIONS BY LATE AFTERNOON.                     
MOISTURE AMOUNTS POINTING TOWARD .25 TO                                         
.40 MAX...SO SNOWFALL MAY BE SIGNIFICANT. THE EURO HAS BEEN MOST                
CONSISTENT WITH THIS FEATURE THE PAST TWO DAYS. WIND DOES NOT LOOK              
TO BE A MAJOR FACTOR FOR NOW...BUT MAY IMPACT BLOWING TO SOME                   
DEGREE. IF THIS ISNT ENOUGH FOR NOW ...MODELS EJECT ANOTHER SYSTEM              
TOWARD THE AREA ON THURSDAY. BY MIDWEEK THE DEEP COLD AIR MASS OVER             
THE REGION HAS BEEN DISPLACED SOMEWHAT NORTH. THIS WILL SET THE                 
STAGE FOR A MIXED EVENT ON THURSDAY. EURO IS STILL COLDER THAN THE              
GFS WHICH MAY BE SHOWING A MORE NORTHERLY BIAS WITH THE DISPLACEMENT            
OF THE COLD AIR. BOTH GFS AND EURO SUGGEST STRONG H850 MOISTURE                 
TRANSPORT WITH THE GULF PRETTY MUCH WIDE OPEN. TOO EARLY TO WORRY               
ABOUT AMOUNTS...BUT THE SOUTH MAY EXPERIENCE A FZRA/SN MIX WHILE                
CENTRAL AND AREAS NORTH APPEAR TO BE ALL SNOW. EURO A BIT MORE                  
GENEROUS ON QPF WITH .50 TO .75 FOR THE 14/00Z RUN WHILE THE GFS IS             
CLOSER TO .25 TO .50 AT 14/00Z. ONE OTHER THING TO CONSIDER IS THE              
POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTIVE PRECIP WITH THIS EVENT GIVEN THE STRENGTH              
OF THE WIND FIELD. PLENTY OF TIME TO TRACK THIS EVENT LATER...BUT               
HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BE SIGNIFICANT. INTO THE WEEKEND ANOTHER SHOT              
OF ARCTIC AIR IS EXPECTED TO DROP SOUTHEAST. GIVEN THE CURRENT MODEL            
FORECAST AIRMASS...WEEKEND MAX AND MINS WILL PROBABLY NEED MODEST               
DOWNWARD ADJUSTMENT ONCE SNOW COVER IS REESTABLISHED OVER THE AREA              
AND DEPTH BECOMES REALIZED BY REPORTS.                                          
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...14/12Z                                                              
AVIATION CONCERNS NOW TURN TO STRONG WINDS...AND SECONDARILY THE                
MVFR CEILINGS AND LIGHT SNOW. COLD FRONT WILL BE THRU ALO AND OTM               
RIGHT AROUND 18Z. ALL TAF SITES WILL THEN BE IN STRONG WNW FLOW WITH            
SUSTAINED SPEEDS IN EXCESS OF 20 KTS AND GUSTS 28 TO 35 KTS THRU                
12Z. NOT MUCH FORCING FOR MORE THAN OCCASIONAL LIGHT AND FINE                   
SNOWFALL...EXCEPT AT KOTM WHERE THERE WILL BE A PERIOD OF 4 TO 5                
HOURS THIS EVENING AS FORCING INCREASES ENOUGH TO LIKELY PRODUCE                
ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL. THERE IS STILL UNCERTAINTY REGARDING HOW LOW             
CEILINGS AND VSBY WILL BE IN THIS SNOW. HAVE LEFT THEM IN MVFR FOR              
NOW. ALL SITES GO VFR BY 11Z WITH DIMINISHING WIND.                             
&&                                                                              
.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 12 PM CST MONDAY                   
FOR ADAIR-BLACK HAWK-CASS-DALLAS-GRUNDY-HARDIN-JASPER-MADISON-                  
MAHASKA-MARION-MARSHALL-POLK-POWESHIEK-STORY-TAMA-WARREN.                       
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR AUDUBON-CALHOUN-                  
CARROLL-CASS-CRAWFORD-EMMET-HUMBOLDT-KOSSUTH-PALO ALTO-                         
POCAHONTAS-SAC.                                                                 
WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 12 PM CST MONDAY                  
FOR AUDUBON-BOONE-GREENE-GUTHRIE-HAMILTON-WEBSTER.                              
WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST MONDAY FOR EMMET-PALO ALTO-                  
POCAHONTAS.                                                                     
WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM CST MONDAY                   
FOR CERRO GORDO-FRANKLIN-HANCOCK-HUMBOLDT-KOSSUTH-WINNEBAGO-                    
WORTH-WRIGHT.                                                                   
WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6 PM CST MONDAY FOR                
BREMER-BUTLER.                                                                  
WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 12 PM CST MONDAY FOR CALHOUN-CARROLL-                 
CRAWFORD-SAC.                                                                   
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
UPDATE...MOYER                                                                  
SHORT TERM...SMALL                                                              
LONG TERM...REV                                                                 
AVIATION...MOYER                                                                
</pre> ia                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA                                          
1052 AM CST SUN DEC 14 2008                                                     
.UPDATE /TODAY/...                                                              
COLD FRONT MOVING QUICKER THAN SCHEDULED THROUGH CENTRAL IOWA HAS               
RESULTED IN A COUPLE OF UPDATE CYCLES THIS MORNING. THE LEADING                 
EDGE OF THE ARCTIC AIR IS NOW FROM NEAR MASON CITY TO MARSHALLTOWN              
TO CORYDON. WINDS SHIFT TO THE WEST NORTHWEST BEHIND THE FRONT AND              
STRATUS FILLS IN. FLURRIES OR VERY LIGHT SNOW WILL SPREAD ACROSS                
CENTRAL IOWA THIS AFTERNOON...BUT PROBABLY WON`T AMOUNT TO MUCH                 
ACCUMULATION. TEMPERATURES WILL DROP 25 TO 30 DEGREES IN THE HOUR               
AFTER THE FRONT PASSES...THEN CONTINUE A SLOWER DROP THROUGH                    
TONIGHT. DUE TO FASTER ARRIVAL OF VERY COLD TEMPERATURES ACROSS                 
NORTHWEST IOWA...HAD TO MAKE WIND CHILL ADVISORY IN EFFECT EARLIER              
THAN PREVIOUS HEADLINE INDICATED. HAVE GONE WITH A START TIME OF                
NOON FOR NORTHWEST TIER...AND 6 PM FOR A TIER OF COUNTIES TO THE                
EAST OF THAT. ALL OTHER HEADLINES REMAIN UNCHANGED.                             
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM /TODAY/...                                                          
EVOLUTION OF TEMPS/DEWPOINT...WIND AND PRECIP POTENTIAL OBVIOUSLY               
MAIN QUESTIONS TODAY.  AS IS OFTEN THE CASE WITH SYSTEMS OF THIS                
STRENGTH...MODELS ARE NOT CAPTURING TEMP GRADIENT WELL ON EITHER END            
OF THE EXTREME.  NAM AND ESPECIALLY RUC ARE DOING THE BEST AND WILL             
BE FOLLOWED.  THIS RESULTS IN WARMER TEMPS THAN PREVIOUSLY                      
ANTICIPATED AHEAD OF FROPA...WHICH SHOULD MAINLY AFFECT AREA                    
15-21Z...AND COOLER/DRIER CONDITIONS BEHIND.  WITH SHARPLY                      
INCREASING MSLP GRADIENT AND ISALLOBARIC MAX BEHIND SYSTEM...EXPECT             
WINDS TO JUST ECLIPSE SUSTAINED 30 MPH CRITERIA THIS AFTERNOON AND              
EARLY EVE SO WIND ADVY WILL BE IN EFFECT FOR SMALL PARTS OF WRN/NW              
SECTIONS.  WITH COLD AIR SURGE AND MIXED LAYER FAIRLY SHALLOW /500M/            
DO NOT EXPECT MUCH MORE THAN THAT WITH GUSTS.                                   
MODEL HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT SPITTING OUT LIGHT QPF WITH THE PASSAGE              
OF THIS SYSTEM.  HOWEVER THIS MUST BE FROM SHALLOW MOISTURE AS                  
SOUNDINGS SHOW LITTLE ABOVE 2KM.  THIS IS SOMEWHAT OF A CONCERN                 
HOWEVER BECAUSE MODELS HAVE BEEN EMPHATIC DEVELOPING THIS LOW                   
STRATUS BUT NO SIGNS YET...CIGS STILL 2500FT OR HIGHER.  CONSIDERING            
40+ DEWPOINTS ARE SURGING INTO IA...STILL EXPECT THIS TO HAPPEN BUT             
MAY TAKE LONGER THAN MODELS DEPICT.  THUS STILL HAVE CHANCE/LOW END             
LIKELY POPS...BUT THIS IS MAINLY DUE TO MEASURABLE DRIZZLE MORE THAN            
RAIN.  P-TYPE MAY CHANGE TO LIGHT FRZG RAIN OR FRZG DRZL BEHIND                 
FROPA AND THEN POSSIBLY TO LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES AS DENDRITIC MOISTURE            
INCREASES BEHIND FRONT.  DGZ WILL BE QUITE SHALLOW...NO HIGHER THAN             
1.5KM BY LATE AFTERNOON.  QPF VERY MINIMAL SO NO SIGNIFICANT                    
CONCERNS OR HEADLINES IN THAT REGARD.                                           
.LONG TERM /TONIGHT-SATURDAY/...                                                
STRONG ARCTIC FRONT TO BE NEARLY EAST OF THE AREA BY EARLY TONIGHT              
BUT PLENTY OF DETAILS TO SORT OUT AS IT PASSES. MODELS CONTINUE TO              
HINT AT A SECONDARY BAND OF PRECIP JUST BEHIND THE BOUNDARY WITH                
SOME FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING BETWEEN H750-H600. FORCING AND QPF                 
COMBINED SHOULD RESULT IN A BAND OF ONE TO ONE AND ONE HALF INCH                
OF SNOW ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST DURING THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. WINDS              
ALREADY PICKING UP BY THEN...SO WILL BE LOOKING AT RATHER POOR                  
CONDITIONS FOR A BRIEF TIME THERE WITH LOW VSBYS AND BLOWING SNOW.              
WILL NOT ISSUE ANY HEADLINES FOR POTENTIAL NOW GIVEN THE NUMBER OF              
OTHER CONCERNS TODAY AND TONIGHT. THAT BEING SAID...DAY SHIFT WILL              
HAVE TO WATCH FOR POSSIBLE WINTER WEATHER CONDITIONS THERE LATER                
TODAY. NEXT CONCERN IS THE WIND CHILL FOR TONIGHT. MODELS SETTLING              
IN ON COLDER OVERNIGHT LOWS WITH H850 TEMPS BRUSHING -20C ACROSS                
THE FAR NORTH/EURO AND EVEN COLDER/GFS. UPSTREAM READINGS OF -10F               
OR LOWER TONIGHT WHERE -20C WAS LOCATED OVER THE NORTHERN DAKOTAS               
LATE LAST NIGHT. FEEL MORE CONFIDENT WITH MINS OF NEARLY -10F                   
ACROSS THE NORTH TONIGHT AND NEARING ZERO CENTRAL. WINDS WILL MIX               
AS THE EVENING PROGRESSES WITH 30 TO 35 MPH GUSTS AND SUSTAINED 25              
TO 30 MPH. THIS WILL PULL WIND CHILLS DOWN TO -20F OR LOWER FROM                
HIGHWAY 92 NORTH THROUGH AT LEAST 18Z MONDAY. NORTH OF HIGHWAY                  
20...AM EXPECTING WIND CHILL READINGS TO REMAIN BELOW CRITERIA                  
MOST OF MONDAY AND WILL EXTEND THE ADVISORY THERE ALL DAY.                      
SUBSIDENCE RATHER STRONG AS TONIGHT PROGRESSES...RESULTING IN                   
CLEARING MOST AREAS AS HIGH BUILDS IN FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS               
MONDAY WILL MIX BUT DIMINISH DURING THE DAY AS THE RIDGE FILES                  
THROUGH THE AREA. DAY TIME HIGHS WILL BE VERY COLD...ONLY IN THE                
SINGLE DIGITS TO MID TEENS. ANOTHER VERY COLD NIGHT IS EXPECTED                 
MONDAY NIGHT BUT CLOUD COVER FROM APPROACHING SYSTEM WILL CAP                   
DROP-OFF WEST AND SOUTH. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW                  
PRONOUNCED TROUGH OVER THE WEST COAST TONIGHT WITH NUMEROUS WAVES               
PROPAGATING EAST. MODELS HAVE BEEN ADVERTISING A DECENT                         
OVERRUNNING EVENT FOR TUESDAY FOR THE PAST TWO TO THREE DAYS.                   
STRONG BAROCLINIC ZONE IN PLACE WITH QUICK MOVING H500 WAVE AND                 
MODEST MOISTURE TRANSPORT AT H850 WITH 20 TO 25KT WINDS WILL                    
PROMOTE A LARGE AREA OF SNOWFALL ACROSS IOWA TUESDAY. CURRENT                   
INDICATIONS ARE THAT CONVECTIVE ENHANCEMENT WILL NOT BE A MAJOR                 
ISSUE...THOUGH SLIGHTLY NEG EPV VALUES ARE FORECAST. BUT EVEN WITH              
THAT...SNOWFALL RATIOS OF 17:20:1 AND MODEST LIFT IN THE SNOW                   
GROWTH ZONE DURING THE DAY SHOULD HELP PRODUCE MODERATE TO                      
POSSIBLE HEAVY SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS BETWEEN EARLY AM HOURS                    
SOUTHWEST...TOWARD EAST CENTRAL SECTIONS BY LATE AFTERNOON.                     
MOISTURE AMOUNTS POINTING TOWARD .25 TO                                         
.40 MAX...SO SNOWFALL MAY BE SIGNIFICANT. THE EURO HAS BEEN MOST                
CONSISTENT WITH THIS FEATURE THE PAST TWO DAYS. WIND DOES NOT LOOK              
TO BE A MAJOR FACTOR FOR NOW...BUT MAY IMPACT BLOWING TO SOME                   
DEGREE. IF THIS ISNT ENOUGH FOR NOW ...MODELS EJECT ANOTHER SYSTEM              
TOWARD THE AREA ON THURSDAY. BY MIDWEEK THE DEEP COLD AIR MASS OVER             
THE REGION HAS BEEN DISPLACED SOMEWHAT NORTH. THIS WILL SET THE                 
STAGE FOR A MIXED EVENT ON THURSDAY. EURO IS STILL COLDER THAN THE              
GFS WHICH MAY BE SHOWING A MORE NORTHERLY BIAS WITH THE DISPLACEMENT            
OF THE COLD AIR. BOTH GFS AND EURO SUGGEST STRONG H850 MOISTURE                 
TRANSPORT WITH THE GULF PRETTY MUCH WIDE OPEN. TOO EARLY TO WORRY               
ABOUT AMOUNTS...BUT THE SOUTH MAY EXPERIENCE A FZRA/SN MIX WHILE                
CENTRAL AND AREAS NORTH APPEAR TO BE ALL SNOW. EURO A BIT MORE                  
GENEROUS ON QPF WITH .50 TO .75 FOR THE 14/00Z RUN WHILE THE GFS IS             
CLOSER TO .25 TO .50 AT 14/00Z. ONE OTHER THING TO CONSIDER IS THE              
POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTIVE PRECIP WITH THIS EVENT GIVEN THE STRENGTH              
OF THE WIND FIELD. PLENTY OF TIME TO TRACK THIS EVENT LATER...BUT               
HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BE SIGNIFICANT. INTO THE WEEKEND ANOTHER SHOT              
OF ARCTIC AIR IS EXPECTED TO DROP SOUTHEAST. GIVEN THE CURRENT MODEL            
FORECAST AIRMASS...WEEKEND MAX AND MINS WILL PROBABLY NEED MODEST               
DOWNWARD ADJUSTMENT ONCE SNOW COVER IS REESTABLISHED OVER THE AREA              
AND DEPTH BECOMES REALIZED BY REPORTS.                                          
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...14/12Z                                                              
VERY CHANGEABLE WEATHER CONDITIONS TODAY.  MVFR CIGS SHOULD                     
GRADUALLY LOWER IN SLY FLOW WITH SOME POTENTIAL TO GO IFR BUT THAT              
IS NOT INCLUDED IN THE FORECAST AT THE MOMENT.  PATCHY DRIZZLE MAY              
OCCUR AS WELL.  STRONG COLD FRONT WILL THEN AFFECT SITES 14-19Z WITH            
WINDS BECOMING NWLY AND SUSTAINED SPEEDS EXCEEDING 20KTS.  IFR                  
CLOUDS WILL BRIEFLY OCCUR WITH COLD AIR SURGE BEFORE LIFTING BACK TO            
MVFR FOR A PROLONGED PERIOD.  INCREASING CROSSWINDS...20KTS OR                  
MORE...MAY OCCUR MAINLY AT SW-NE RUNWAYS.  FLURRIES MAY OCCUR WELL              
BEHIND THE FRONT TOO AND THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR BRIEF FREEZING             
DRIZZLE...BUT THREAT NOT ENOUGH TO INCLUDE.                                     
&&                                                                              
.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 12 PM CST MONDAY                   
FOR ADAIR-BLACK HAWK-CASS-DALLAS-GRUNDY-HARDIN-JASPER-MADISON-                  
MAHASKA-MARION-MARSHALL-POLK-POWESHIEK-STORY-TAMA-WARREN.                       
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR AUDUBON-CALHOUN-                  
CARROLL-CASS-CRAWFORD-EMMET-HUMBOLDT-KOSSUTH-PALO ALTO-                         
POCAHONTAS-SAC.                                                                 
WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 12 PM CST MONDAY                  
FOR AUDUBON-BOONE-GREENE-GUTHRIE-HAMILTON-WEBSTER.                              
WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST MONDAY FOR EMMET-PALO ALTO-                  
POCAHONTAS.                                                                     
WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM CST MONDAY                   
FOR CERRO GORDO-FRANKLIN-HANCOCK-HUMBOLDT-KOSSUTH-WINNEBAGO-                    
WORTH-WRIGHT.                                                                   
WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6 PM CST MONDAY FOR                
BREMER-BUTLER.                                                                  
WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 12 PM CST MONDAY FOR CALHOUN-CARROLL-                 
CRAWFORD-SAC.                                                                   
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
UPDATE...MOYER                                                                  
SHORT TERM...SMALL                                                              
LONG TERM...REV                                                                 
AVIATION...SMALL                                                                
</pre> ia                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED                                            
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS                                             
332 PM CST SUN DEC 14 2008                                                      
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
THE MAIN CONCERN WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE WILL BE THE WIND                    
CHILL VALUES TONIGHT AND SNOW CHANCES ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS MONDAY              
NIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING. THE NEXT CONCERN WILL BE THE FREEZING                
DRIZZLE AND FREEZING RAIN POTENTIAL WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY               
MORNING.                                                                        
TONIGHT:                                                                        
LATEST WATER VAPOR LOOP WAS SHOWING THE POTENTIAL VORTICITY ANOMALY             
MOVING THROUGH NORTHWEST KANSAS. LATEST PROFILERS/RUC WERE ALSO                 
SHOWING A BAROCLINIC ZONE AROUND 700MB NEAR THAT AREA. LATEST RADAR             
LOOP WAS ALSO SHOWING SOME NARROW BANDS OF LIGHT SNOW DEVELOPING                
ACROSS SOUTHWEST KANSAS EXTENDING INTO CENTRAL KANSAS. THESE                    
INSTABILITY BANDS OF SNOW ARE ASSOCIATED WITH STEEPER LAPSE RATES               
ABOVE 750MB. THESE BANDS APPEARS TO FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE WHICH WILL               
LIMIT ANY SNOWFALL ACCUMULATION. AS A RESULT...WE HAVE LOWERED                  
SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS TO ONE HALF INCH OR LESS THIS EVENING.                   
MEANWHILE...MODELS CONTINUE TO UNDERESTIMATE THE AMOUNT OF COLD AIR             
POURING INTO THE AREA. AS A RESULT...WE HAVE LOWERED TEMPERATURES A             
COUPLE MORE DEGREES FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS. THESE LOWER TEMPERATURES                
COMBINED WITH GUSTY NORTH WINDS AT 10 TO 20 MPH WILL PRODUCE WIND               
CHILL VALUES NEAR 15 BELOW ZERO FOR A COUPLE OF HOURS OVERNIGHT IN              
RUSSELL AND LINCOLN COUNTIES. AFTER COLLABORATING WITH SURROUNDING              
FORECAST OFFICES...WE HAVE ELECTED NOT ISSUE A WIND CHILL                       
ADVISORY. ALTHOUGH...LATER SHIFTS MAY NEED CONSIDER THIS DEPENDING              
IF TEMPERATURES DROP LOWER THAN THE CURRENT FORECAST.                           
MONDAY:                                                                         
THE ARCTIC HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE EAST INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST.             
HOWEVER...THE POLAR AIR MASS WILL NOT BUDGE WITH HIGHS STRUGGLING TO            
GET OUT OF THE TEENS. WIND CHILL VALUES WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE                
SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO.                                                       
MONDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY:                                                           
ANOTHER POTENTIAL VORTICITY ANOMALY IS EXPECTED TO RIDE THROUGH                 
NORTHWEST KANSAS AGAIN ON MONDAY NIGHT. THE GFS SEEMS TO HAVE A GOOD            
HANDLE ON THIS FEATURE WITH THE WAVE CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH THE               
PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THIS FEATURE SHOULD PROVIDE AMPLE ISENTROPIC LIFT            
BETWEEN 290-295K MAINLY OVER NORTHERN KANSAS AND SOUTHERN NEBRASKA              
LATE MONDAY NIGHT. FORTUNATELY...IT APPEARS LIKE MOST OF THE                    
ACTIVITY SHOULD BE OF THE FROZEN VARIETY. SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS                
SHOULD GENERALLY BE LESS THAN ONE INCH WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS                 
EXPECTED IN RUSSELL...LINCOLN AND SALINE COUNTIES.                              
TUESDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY NIGHT:                                                   
THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW IS PROGGED TO REMAIN OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST WHICH            
WILL PROVIDE AN UNSETTLED PATTERN DURING THIS TIMEFRAME. THE MAIN               
QUESTION WILL BE THE POSITION OF THE ELEVATED BAROCLINIC ZONE. RIGHT            
NOW WE ARE FAVORING MORE OF THE ECMWF/GFS ENSEMBLES ON THE TIMING OF            
THE FEATURES MOVING FROM THE ROCKIES AND NORTHERN PLAINS. THE ECMWF             
AND GFS ENSEMBLES ARE A LITTLE MORE AMPLIFIED WITH A WAVE MOVING                
THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.               
HOWEVER...THIS WAVE WILL JUST HELP SHOVE THE SURFACE FRONTAL                    
BOUNDARY SOUTH THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA AND BRING A SHOT OF                    
MODIFIED CANADIAN AIR WITH LITTLE IF ANY PRECIP. HOWEVER...THE GFS              
ENSEMBLES/ECMWF/UKMET ARE PICKING UP ON A STRONGER WAVE MOVING OUT              
OF THE ROCKIES WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. THE ECMWF IS TRENDING              
ON PLACING THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY FURTHER SOUTH THAN PREVIOUS RUNS.              
THIS WOULD FAVOR MORE OF A FREEZING RAIN EVENT IF THIS PANS OUT.                
THE GFS ON THE OTHER HAND...PLACES THIS BOUNDARY FURTHER NORTH                  
BISECTING CENTRAL KANSAS. AT THIS TIME...WE ARE FAVORING THE                    
ECMWF SOLUTION WHICH KEEPS THIS BOUNDARY FURTHER SOUTH WHILE                    
CYCLOGENESIS GETS GOING ACROSS THE ROCKIES. THIS TIMEFRAME WILL                 
NEED TO BE WATCHED WITH LATER RUNS.                                             
FRIDAY-SUNDAY:                                                                  
THE GFS/ECMWF ARE BOTH SHOWING A 1042MB HIGH DEVELOPING OVER ALASKA             
WHICH MAY BUILD SOUTH INTO THE PLAINS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. AS            
A RESULT...MORE COLD WEATHER IS ON THE HORIZON THIS WEEKEND.                    
COX                                                                             
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...18Z TAFS KRSL/KSLN/KHUT/KICT/KCNU                                   
ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE MOVING THROUGH SOUTHEAST KANSAS                 
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. BLUSTERY AND OCCASIONALLY STRONG NORTH TO                 
NORTHWEST WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE ACROSS MUCH OF THE               
AREA INTO THE EVENING. A NARROW AND TRANSIENT BAND OF LIFT IS                   
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BEHIND THE FRONT LATE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS                 
CENTRAL KANSAS AND SHIFT SOUTH ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA INTO                 
THE EARLY EVENING. THIS MAY RESULT IN A BRIEF PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW              
OR VERY LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE. MVFR CIGS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE               
AREA FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST VALID PERIOD.                                     
KED                                                                             
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
WICHITA-KICT     8  19  13  26 /  40  10  20  20                                
HUTCHINSON       7  18  11  24 /  40  10  30  20                                
NEWTON           7  17  13  24 /  40  10  30  30                                
ELDORADO         8  18  13  25 /  40  10  20  30                                
WINFIELD-KWLD   10  20  15  29 /  30  10  20  20                                
RUSSELL          0  15   6  20 /  20  10  50  50                                
GREAT BEND       4  16   9  23 /  30  10  40  20                                
SALINA           4  16   8  22 /  30  10  40  50                                
MCPHERSON        6  17  10  24 /  40  10  30  40                                
COFFEYVILLE     12  24  15  30 /  40  10  20  30                                
CHANUTE         10  20  14  27 /  40  10  20  40                                
IOLA             9  19  13  26 /  40  10  20  40                                
PARSONS-KPPF    11  22  14  29 /  40  10  20  30                                
&&                                                                              
.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
NONE.                                                                           
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</pre> ks                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY                                             
1248 PM EST SUN DEC 14 2008                                                     
.SHORT TERM.../THE REST OF TODAY/                                               
WINDS CONTINUE TO INCREASE THIS MORNING WITH A TIGHTENING PRESSURE              
GRADIENT...AND WINDS ALOFT BEGINNING TO MIX DOWN TO THE SURFACE. HAVE           
ALREADY HAD SOME GUSTS APPROACHING 40 MPH. OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 45 MPH           
ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AT LEAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...AND                   
POSSIBLY EARLY EVENING. THIS COULD BRING DOWN A FEW TREES AND POWER             
LINES. INCREASED CLOUD COVER TODAY...ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTHWEST...             
WHERE AC CONTINUES TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA. LOOKING AT SATELLITE                
IMAGES AND RUC13 MOISTURE FIELDS...THINK THESE CLOUDS WILL PERSIST              
THROUGH THE DAY. ELSEWHERE...AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER CAN BE                  
EXPECTED. OTHER THAN MOSTLY CLOUDY IN THE NORTHWEST...WILL GO WITH              
PARTLY SUNNY WORDING TODAY FOR AN AVERAGE SKY COVER AS MID AND HIGH             
CLOUDS MOVE IN. TEMPS HAVE RISEN QUICKLY THIS MORNING...WITH EVEN THE           
COLDEST VALLEYS RAPIDLY REACHING THE 40S SO FAR. TWEAKED AFTERNOON              
HIGHS SOME BASED ON THE LATEST UPPER AIR DATA AND CURRENT TRENDS.               
UPDATED FORECAST PRODUCTS OUT SOON.                                             
THE PREVIOUS SHORT TERM FORECAST DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...                          
/TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT/                                                         
WAA ALREADY EVIDENT WITH SRLY FLOW AND TEMPS ONLY IN THE MID TO UPPER           
30S ATTM. GUSTY WINDS SHOWING UP ON SOME OF THE RIDGETOP OBS IN TN              
AND ON THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU. OTHERWISE...WINDS GUSTY FROM MIE TO SDF          
TO BWG TO MKL. NOTHING YET TO MEET NPW (WIND ADV) CRITERIA YET BUT              
THIS SHOULD CHANGE AFTER SUNRISE. STILL HAVE SOME SNOW IN OUR CNTRL             
ZONES TO GET RID OF SO TEMPS WILL BE SLOW TO CLIMB BUT SHOULD MAKE IT           
TO AT LEAST THE LOWER 50S IN OUR SNOW BELT ON THE ERN SIDE OF THE DAN           
BOONE NAT FOREST. ELSEWHERE...EXPECT MID 50S FOR HIGHS TODAY. HAVE              
UNDERCUT MOS TEMPS SLIGHTLY AS THEY SEEM TO HAVE BEEN OUT OF TOUCH              
WITH CURRENT SURFACE CONDITIONS. WITH THE EXPECTED WINDS TODAY I AM             
ALSO EXPECTING OVERNIGHT TEMPS TO REMAIN RELATIVELY FLAT AS THE                 
TYPICAL NOCTURNAL INVERSION WILL BE LATE TO ESTABLISH ...IF AT ALL.             
.LONG TERM.../MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/                                          
THE MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT ALOFT CONSIDERING THE COMPLEXITY             
OF THE FORECAST IN THE LONG TERM. A LARGE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL HOLD           
ON OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO AND EXTEND ITS INFLUENCE NORTHEAST ALONG             
THE SOUTHEAST ATLANTIC COASTAL STATES DURING THE BREADTH OF THIS                
PERIOD. IT WILL BE NUDGED AND BUFFETED FROM THE NORTHWEST BY A                  
SEEMINGLY ENDLESS STRING OF SHORTWAVES RUNNING FROM THE BASE OF THE             
DEEP TROUGH OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST NORTHEAST IN FAST AND BROAD               
SOUTHWEST FLOW THROUGH THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY UP INTO THE OHIO            
VALLEY AND THEN TO EASTERN CANADA. NOT SURPRISINGLY...THESE WAVES               
ARE ILL TIMED AND DEFINED AMONGST THE MODELS. A BLENDED SOLUTION WAS            
FOLLOWED...THOUGH THE UPPER PATTERN WILL BE FAR LESS IMPORTANT TO               
THIS FORECAST THAN IT NORMAL IS...GIVEN THE DETERMINATIVE ARCTIC AIR            
AIR MASS SLOSHING AROUND IN OUR NEIGHBORHOOD BENEATH THE UPPER                  
PATTERN. TO THAT END...THE DAY TO DAY EXTENT AND MOVEMENT OF THE COLD           
AIR IN THE LOWEST LAYERS OF THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BE A CRITICAL FACTOR            
IN PRECIPITATION TYPE THROUGH THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THIS FAIRLY WET           
FORECAST. EARLY ON...A BLEND OF OUR PREVIOUS FORECAST AND THE NAM12             
WAS FOLLOWED BEFORE MORE OF A BLEND FROM THE LATEST GFS AND 12Z ECMWF           
WAS PREFERRED FROM TUESDAY ON THROUGH SATURDAY. INITIALLY...THIS                
RESULTED IN A PUSH OF ARCTIC AIR FURTHER EAST THAN DEPICTED BY THE              
INHERITED GRIDS AND THE GFS. FOLLOWING THAT...LATER IN THE WEEK...THE           
SLOSHING OF THE ARCTIC AIR WILL BE BASED MORE ON THE SFC PRESSURE               
FEATURES AND THE RESULTING PATTERN. ACCORDINGLY...FOLLOWED A BLEND OF           
THE HPC PATTERN AND THE MID RANGE MODELS.                                       
SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE AN EXTREME OSCILLATION OF COLD AIR AND            
ITS RESULTS ON THE PRECIPITATION BETWEEN PERIODS OF WARMTH AS LOW               
PRESSURE WAVES PASS THROUGH THE AREA...RUNNING ALONG THE BAROCLINIC             
ZONE. THIS WILL ALSO BE A WET PERIOD WITH THE GULF OF MEXICO FEEDING            
MOISTURE NORTHEAST WITHIN THE BROAD AND FAST...DEEP LAYER...SOUTHWEST           
FLOW. SPECIFICALLY...THE ARCTIC AIR WILL PRESS INTO THE CWA FROM THE            
NORTHWEST LATER MONDAY AS SHOWERS STREAM ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE                 
FRONT. THE UNDERCUTTING COLD WILL BE ENOUGH FOR A THREAT OF MIXED               
PRECIPITATION OVER A GOOD PORTION OF THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT...                   
LINGERING INTO THE MORNING TUESDAY. THE NEXT WAVE THEN SENDS WARMER             
AIR BACK NORTH LATER TUESDAY WHILE THE CHANCE FOR LIQUID PCPN                   
CONTINUES. THIS WAVE PASSES ON WEDNESDAY DRAGGING THE COLD AIR AND              
ANOTHER THREAT FOR LINGERING MIXED PCPN WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY           
MORNING. FOR THURSDAY PROPER...THE NEXT SFC WAVE SENDS WARM AIR BACK            
NORTH...LASTING INTO THE NIGHT WITH COLD AIR PUSHING BACK INTO THE              
REGION ON FRIDAY NIGHT...BUT NOT QUITE ENOUGH...AT THIS POINT FOR               
MIXED PCPN FROM THE OVER RUNNING PCPN THAT WILL WORK BACK OVER THE              
AREA ON SATURDAY...ALL THE WHILE BRINGING THE NEXT BRIEF SURGE OF               
WARM AIR NORTHWARD. AS IT LOOKS NOW...THE GREATEST THREAT FOR MIXED             
PCPN WILL BE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING WITH A LESSER THREAT             
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WAVES OF MOIST AIR WILL KEEP THE CHANCE OF RAIN                
GOING FOR MUCH OF THE TIME THROUGH THE EXTENDED.                                
GIVEN THE NATURE OF THE ARCTIC AIR AFFECTING US EARLY ON...FOLLOWED             
MORE OF A TEMPERATURE CURVE AND SPECIFIC VALUES FROM THE RAW NAM12.             
THIS RESULTED IN TEMPS CLOSER TO THE MET NUMBERS MONDAY NIGHT RATHER            
THAN THE MAV. LATER ON...BLENDED THE RAW ECMWF AND GFS TEMPS                    
RESULTING IN MORE MODERATED MAX AND MIN TEMPS IN THAT PART OF THE               
EXTENDED THAN THE MEX NUMBERS. AS FOR POPS...ENDED UP WITH MORE OF A            
BLEND OF THE MAV AND MET THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE LONG RANGE AND           
THEN NOT QUITE AS HIGH AS THE MEX THROUGH SATURDAY.                             
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION.../18Z TO 18Z/...UPDATED                                              
WINDS ARE THE MAIN CONCERN TODAY INTO TONIGHT...AS A TIGHT PRESSURE             
GRADIENT EXISTS BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR EAST AND A COLD FRONT              
FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST TO THE PLAINS. SOUTH WINDS WITH GUSTS NEAR 40            
KT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...WITH SOME MID AND HIGH                 
CLOUDS MOVING INTO THE AREA. THE SURFACE GUSTS WILL SUBSIDE IN THE              
VALLEYS TONIGHT...BUT WINDS ABOVE THE SURFACE STRENGTHEN SOME. WILL             
INCLUDE WIND SHEAR FOR LOZ AND SME...BUT WILL KEEP GUSTS TO AROUND 25           
KT AT JKL ON THE RIDGE TOP. SURFACE WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY AGAIN AS            
THE FRONT APPROACHES ON MONDAY. SOUTHWEST WINDS GUSTING TO 25 KT ARE            
EXPECTED...WITH STRATOCU AND A FEW -SHRA MOVING IN AFTER 15Z.                   
EXPECTING LOWER CIGS AND VIS AFTER THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.                   
&&                                                                              
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR KYZ044-050>052-                  
058>060-068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120.                                    
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHORT TERM...DUSTY/WJM                                                          
LONG TERM....GREIF                                                              
AVIATION...WJM                                                                  
</pre> ky                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN                                              
410 PM CST SUN DEC 14 2008                                                      
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
NO CHANGES TO ANY HEADLINES ATTM. AT 4 PM...THE SFC LOW WAS SE OF               
SIREN...WITH NORTHWEST WINDS AND 12 DEGREES AT MOOSE LAKE...AND 41              
DEGREES AND A SOUTH WIND AT LADYSMITH. HEAVY SNOW AND WIDESPREAD                
HALF MILE OR LESS VISIBILITIES WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE                         
EVENING...GRADUALLY IMPROVING AFTER MIDNIGHT. HOWEVER...MUCH                    
COLDER AIR WILL BLAST INTO THE REGION OVERNIGHT AND THE                         
COMBINATION OF WIND AND COLD FOR MOST AREAS THROUGH NOON ON                     
MONDAY.                                                                         
AS SFC LOW PUSHES INTO NRN WIS...TRANSITIONS ZONE HAS PIVOTED NOW               
INTO THE SE ZONES...GENERALLY FROM ASKOV IN PINE COUNTY...TO                    
HAYWARD...AND NE HURLEY. THE SFC LOW HAS TAKEN A SLIGHTLY FURTHER               
WEST TRACK THAN PREV ANTICIPATED. THIS HAS ALLOWED THE RA/FZRA                  
ZONE TO SHIFT SLIGHTLY FURTHER WEST...INTO PINE COUNTY. THE                     
FREEZING PCPN WILL CHANGE OVER TO ALL SN FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH              
8 PM...AS WINDS SWITCH TO THE NW AND TEMPERATURES DRASTICALLY FALL              
15-20 DEGREES F IN A VERY SHORT TIME.                                           
AS WINDS SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST THIS EVENING... IT IS LIKELY THAT               
BLIZZARD CONDITIONS WILL SUBSIDE INT THE TWIN PORTS REGION.                     
HOWEVER...WINDS TO 30 MPH OR HIGHER WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE                
NIGHT...ALLOWING FOR BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW TO PERSIST INTO                  
MONDAY MORNING.                                                                 
INCREASED POPS AND SN AMOUNTS ALONG SOUTH SHORE OF LAKE SUPERIOR                
ON MONDAY WHERE FAVORABLE LAPSE RATES AND TRAJECTORIES IS EXPECTED              
TO BRING ANOTHER 3 TO 6 INCHES TO THE SNOW BELT REGION OF NORTHERN              
WISCONSIN.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 151 PM CST SUN DEC 14 2008/                         
UPDATE...                                                                       
CURRENT RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS A LARGE SWATH OF +SN OVER THE NRN HALF              
OF MN. MOST SNOWFALL OBSERVERS IN NE MN ARE REPORTING 5-7 INCHES                
OF SN ACCUMULATIONS AS OF 1 PM WITH +SN CONTINUING. SEVERAL                     
SPOTTERS IN THE HEAVIER BANDS HAVE MEASURED 1.5-2 INCHES PER HR                 
RATES. THE GREATEST STORM TOTAL ATTM...IS 9 INCHES IN WEST                      
DULUTH. THE STRONG WINDS AND DRIFTING ARE PROVING TO MAKE ACCURATE              
SNOWFALL MEASUREMENTS DIFFICULT.                                                
A VERY STRONG BAROCLINIC ZONE IS DEPICTED IN THE 19Z SFC                        
OBS. TEMPS RANGING FROM 8F BELOW ZERO AT BAUDETTE MN...18F ABOVE                
ZERO AT THE DULUTH AP...AND 36F WITH RA AT PHILLIPS WI. THE TIGHT               
PRESSURE GRADIENT HAS ALSO RESULTED IN STRONG WINDS WITH MOST                   
LOCATIONS IN NRN MN GUSTING AROUND 30KT. THE WX STATIONS AT                     
KDYT/DULM5 CONTINUE TO REPORT A SUSTAINED 30-35 KT WIND WITH GUSTS              
AROUND 45 KT. WIDESPREAD WHITE OUT CONDITIONS WITH VSBYS OF 1/4SM               
OR LESS PERSIST IN THE TWIN PORTS REGION.                                       
TURNING TO RA/SN TRANSITION ZONE IN NW WIS. THE ASOS AT KHYR IS                 
CURRENTLY REPORTING 30F AND FZRA...WHILE JUST TO THE ESE AT KPBH                
THE SFC STATION IS REPORTING 36F AND RA. THIS LINES UP WELL WITH                
THE CURRENT FCST SO NO SIG CHANGES MADE. THIS ZONE WILL SLOWLY                  
SHIFT EAST AS IT PIVOTS BACK TO THE NW...AND IS NOT EXPECTED TO                 
BUILD FURTHER W. ONCE WINDS BACK TO THE N THEN NW...STRONG CAA                  
WITH A 30KT LLJ WILL COOL THE COLUMN QUICKLY FOR ALL SN.                        
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 950 AM CST SUN DEC 14 2008/                          
UPDATE...                                                                       
INCREASED WINDS/GUSTS IN FCST TODAY TO BETTER REFLECT CURRENT                   
OBSERVATIONS. FOR PAST SEVERAL HRS KDYT AND DULM5 HAVE BEEN                     
SUSTAINED AROUND 30 KT...WITH GUSTS AROUND 40 KTS. AT 1530Z KDYT                
HAD A GUST TO 45 KT. EXPECTED THESE WINDS TO PERSIST...OR BECOME                
STRONGER THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS THE SFC LOW MOVES INTO NRN WIS.               
UP T0 60 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE AT THE HEAD OF LAKE SUPERIOR IN THE               
DULUTH/SUPERIOR HARBOR THIS AFTERNOON.                                          
AREA OF +SN AND 1/2SM OR LESS VSBY CONTINUING GOOD PACE LIFTING                 
NWRD...WITH LEADING EDGE ON TRACK TO REACH THE TWIN PORTS IN THE                
NEXT 30 MIN.                                                                    
WATCHING SOUTH SHORE ZONES FOR A POSSIBLE UPGRADE TO BLIZZARD                   
WARNING. THE SFC OBSERVATIONS ARE ONLY GUSTING AROUND 25KT...BUT                
WILL KEEP IN CONTACT WITH LOCAL LAW ENFORCEMENT IN                              
BAYFIELD/ASHLAND/IRON COUNTIES IN CASE WHITE OUT CONDITIONS BECOME              
WIDESPREAD.                                                                     
ALSO KEEPING CLOSE WATCH ON RA/SN TRANSITION ZONE THAT IS                       
CURRENTLY SET UP ALONG THE DLH/MPX CWA BORDER IN NRN WISCONSIN.                 
LATEST SFC OBS ARE REPORTING RA FROM OSCEOLA...TO RICE LAKE AND                 
LADYSMITH...AND JUST SN JUST TO THE NORTH FROM CAMBRIDGE...TO                   
SIREN...AND PHILLIPS.                                                           
PREV DISCUSSION...                                                              
WELL ADVERTISED SYSTEM BEHAVING AS EXPECTED WITH ONE EXCEPTION.                 
DOME OF COLD AIR IN SFC/85H LAYER HAS MAINTAINED ITSELF ACROSS NW               
WIS EARLY THIS MORNING. ANIMATION OF RUC13 THERMAL/WIND FIELDS IN               
BDRY LAYER INDICATE THAT COLDER AIR IS UNDERCUTTING SOUTHWEST FLOW              
ALOFT. 925H WINDS HAVE SHIFTED FROM SOUTH TO EAST ALONG A RZN TO                
HYR TO PBH LINE. THIS HAS PUSHED MAIN CONVERGENCE ZONE IN LOW                   
LEVELS FARTHER SOUTH TO ERN PART OF MPX CWA. BAYFIELD PENINSULA                 
APPEARS TO BE EXPERIENCING ENHANCED PRECIP FROM LONG TRAJECTORY                 
DOWN LAKE SUPERIOR. LATEST MSAS SHOWS WELL DEFINED SFC INVERTED                 
TROUGH FROM LOW OVER ERN NEB TO EAX TO HOUGHTON IN UP OF MI. 3HR                
PRESSRR OVER SERN PART OF CWA CURRENTLY. LATEST SAT IMAGERY SHOWS               
LARGE AREA OF COOLING CLOUD TOPS ACROSS ERN DAKOTAS IN VICINITY OF              
DIVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER TROF. STRONG UPPER JETS POISED                 
OVER ONTARIO... WITH NRN BRANCH... AND LEFT EXIT REGION OF SRN                  
PLAINS JET TRANSLATING NE INTO SRN MN/WI.                                       
TODAY/TONIGHT...ONLY SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO EXISTING FCST WAS TO UPGRADE         
BURNETT/WASHBURN/SAWYER COUNTIES TO WSW. THIS IS PRIMARILY BECAUSE              
EXISTING THERMAL BDRY IN LOW LAYERS AND UNDERCUTTING OF COLD AIR                
SHOULD ENSURE MOSTLY SNOW FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE STORM. FSCT                   
SNDGS ALSO REFLECT THIS CHANGE FROM YESTERDAY. BLIZZARD CONDITIONS              
STILL EXPECTED TODAY ALONG HEAD OF LAKE AS FUNNELING OF HIGHER                  
SPEED AIR OCCURS. DYT ALREADY GUSTING TO ABOUT 40MPH. MAJOR                     
FORCING FACTORS STILL IN PLAY. A LARGE AREA OF MDT/STRONG                       
FRONTOGENESIS WILL BE ENHANCED AS UPPER TROF ADVECTS EAST TODAY.                
COUPLED JETS WILL ADD TO SYNOPTIC SCALE ASCENT. SOME MIX OF                     
SN/IP/FZRA ACROSS EXTREME ERN CWA AS SFC LOW GETS CLOSER THIS                   
AFTERNOON. WITH COLD AIR ALREADY IN PLACE AND SATURATION OCCURING               
IN DEEP LAYER SUSPECT THAT POPTYP MAY BE MORE A WET SNOW OR SLEET               
VS COLD RAIN IN THIS AREA. WINDCHILL VALUES APPROACH/EXCEED                     
ADVISORY CATEGORY TONIGHT BUT DID NOT WANT TO ADD ANOTHER ADVISORY              
TO BUSY SLATE. WILL VERBALIZE THE THREAT IN THE WSW AND HWO                     
PRODUCTS. TEMPERATURES WILL DROP BELOW ZERO OVER MOST OF THE                    
REGION TONIGHT AND REMAIN BELOW ZERO PERHAPS UNTIL WEDNESDAY                    
AFTERNOON. PLENTY OF BLOWING SNOW EXPECTED AS GUSTY WINDS PUSH                  
FLUFFY LOW DENSITY FLAKES ALL OVER THE PLACE.                                   
MONDAY...STORM LOOSENS ITS GRIP BY MONDAY AFTERNOON OVER CWA.                   
SN/BS STILL EXPECTED THROUGH MORNING MOST AREAS. WITH 85/70H RH                 
STILL ABOVE 60 PERCENT MOST OF DAY...SHOULD SEE ADDITIONAL SNOW                 
FOR SNOWBELT WITH VERY HIGH SNOW/LIQUID RATIOS. MAY NEED TO EXTEND              
WARNING IN THAT AREA.                                                           
EXTENDED....TUE THRU SAT...                                                     
SEVERAL S/WVS WILL TRANSIT THE REGION...REQUIRING AT LEAST SOME LOW             
POPS. THE DRY ARCTIC AIR THAT WILL BE IN PLACE WILL LIMIT ANY                   
POTENTIAL PRECIP. THE MOST LIKELY DRY PD WILL BE WED/THU UNDER WK               
RIDGING ALOFT...ALTHO SRN ZONES MAY RECEIVE SOME PRECIP BEING ON THE            
NRN FRINGES OF A SFC SYSTEM MOVG UP THE OH VLY. BOTH GFS AND ECMWF              
SHOW THIS SYSTEM...ALTHO THERE ARE TIMING DIFFS.                                
AVIATION...                                                                     
GENERALLY IFR/LIFR CONDS IN SN/FG/BLSN WILL PERSIST THRU THE TAF PD             
AS MAJ WINT STORM MOVES FROM NEB TO LK SUP BY MON MRNG. AT THAT TIME            
CONDS WILL BEGIN TO GRADUALLY IMPROVE AS THE STORM MOVES AWAY.                  
STRONG NE WINDS WILL SIFT TO THE NW AS THE STORM PASSES...THEN                  
GRADUALLY DIMINISH DURING THE DAY ON MON.                                       
&&                                                                              
POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                             
DLH -10  -5 -25  -7 / 100  30  10  20                                           
INL -11  -6 -33  -9 / 100  30  10  10                                           
BRD  -9  -4 -25  -3 / 100  20  10  30                                           
HYR  -4   1 -25  -1 /  80  30  10  30                                           
ASX  -2   3 -20   0 /  90  60  10  20                                           
&&                                                                              
.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
MN...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 4 AM CST MONDAY FOR CROW WING-PINE-             
     SOUTHERN AITKIN-SOUTHERN CASS.                                             
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 12 PM CST MONDAY FOR CENTRAL ST.                
     LOUIS-KOOCHICHING-NORTHERN AITKIN-NORTHERN CASS-NORTHERN                   
     COOK/NORTHERN LAKE-NORTHERN ITASCA-NORTHERN ST. LOUIS-                     
     SOUTHERN COOK/LAKESHORE-SOUTHERN ITASCA-SOUTHERN                           
     LAKE/LAKESHORE.                                                            
     BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 12 PM CST MONDAY FOR CARLTON/SOUTHERN ST.           
     LOUIS.                                                                     
WI...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 4 AM CST MONDAY FOR BURNETT-SAWYER-             
     WASHBURN.                                                                  
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 12 PM CST MONDAY FOR ASHLAND-BAYFIELD-          
     IRON.                                                                      
     BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 12 PM CST MONDAY FOR DOUGLAS.                       
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM CST MONDAY FOR PRICE.                   
LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM MONDAY TO 10 AM CST TUESDAY FOR             
     LSZ121-LSZ146-LSZ147-LSZ148.                                               
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 4 AM CST MONDAY FOR LSZ121-LSZ144-LSZ145-               
     LSZ146-LSZ147-LSZ148.                                                      
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM MONDAY TO 4 AM CST TUESDAY FOR              
     LSZ144-LSZ145.                                                             
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM CST TUESDAY FOR LSZ140-LSZ141-             
     LSZ142-LSZ143.                                                             
$$                                                                              
GRANING/EOM                                                                     
</pre> mn                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN                                              
151 PM CST SUN DEC 14 2008                                                      
.UPDATE...                                                                      
CURRENT RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS A LARGE SWATH OF +SN OVER THE NRN HALF              
OF MN. MOST SNOWFALL OBSERVERS IN NE MN ARE REPORTING 5-7 INCHES                
OF SN ACCUMULATIONS AS OF 1 PM WITH +SN CONTINUING. SEVERAL                     
SPOTTERS IN THE HEAVIER BANDS HAVE MEASURED 1.5-2 INCHES PER HR                 
RATES. THE GREATEST STORM TOTAL ATTM...IS 9 INCHES IN WEST                      
DULUTH. THE STRONG WINDS AND DRIFTING ARE PROVING TO MAKE ACCURATE              
SNOWFALL MEASUREMENTS DIFFICULT.                                                
A VERY STRONG BAROCLINIC ZONE IS DEPICTED IN THE 19Z SFC                        
OBS. TEMPS RANGING FROM 8F BELOW ZERO AT BAUDETTE MN...18F ABOVE                
ZERO AT THE DULUTH AP...AND 36F WITH RA AT PHILLIPS WI. THE TIGHT               
PRESSURE GRADIENT HAS ALSO RESULTED IN STRONG WINDS WITH MOST                   
LOCATIONS IN NRN MN GUSTING AROUND 30KT. THE WX STATIONS AT                     
KDYT/DULM5 CONTINUE TO REPORT A SUSTAINED 30-35 KT WIND WITH GUSTS              
AROUND 45 KT. WIDESPREAD WHITE OUT CONDITIONS WITH VSBYS OF 1/4SM               
OR LESS PERSIST IN THE TWIN PORTS REGION.                                       
TURNING TO RA/SN TRANSITION ZONE IN NW WIS. THE ASOS AT KHYR IS                 
CURRENTLY REPORTING 30F AND FZRA...WHILE JUST TO THE ESE AT KPBH                
THE SFC STATION IS REPORTING 36F AND RA. THIS LINES UP WELL WITH                
THE CURRENT FCST SO NO SIG CHANGES MADE. THIS ZONE WILL SLOWLY                  
SHIFT EAST AS IT PIVOTS BACK TO THE NW...AND IS NOT EXPECTED TO                 
BUILD FURTHER W. ONCE WINDS BACK TO THE N THEN NW...STRONG CAA                  
WITH A 30KT LLJ WILL COOL THE COLUMN QUICKLY FOR ALL SN.                        
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 950 AM CST SUN DEC 14 2008/                         
UPDATE...                                                                       
INCREASED WINDS/GUSTS IN FCST TODAY TO BETTER REFLECT CURRENT                   
OBSERVATIONS. FOR PAST SEVERAL HRS KDYT AND DULM5 HAVE BEEN                     
SUSTAINED AROUND 30 KT...WITH GUSTS AROUND 40 KTS. AT 1530Z KDYT                
HAD A GUST TO 45 KT. EXPECTED THESE WINDS TO PERSIST...OR BECOME                
STRONGER THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS THE SFC LOW MOVES INTO NRN WIS.               
UP T0 60 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE AT THE HEAD OF LAKE SUPERIOR IN THE               
DULUTH/SUPERIOR HARBOR THIS AFTERNOON.                                          
AREA OF +SN AND 1/2SM OR LESS VSBY CONTINUING GOOD PACE LIFTING                 
NWRD...WITH LEADING EDGE ON TRACK TO REACH THE TWIN PORTS IN THE                
NEXT 30 MIN.                                                                    
WATCHING SOUTH SHORE ZONES FOR A POSSIBLE UPGRADE TO BLIZZARD                   
WARNING. THE SFC OBSERVATIONS ARE ONLY GUSTING AROUND 25KT...BUT                
WILL KEEP IN CONTACT WITH LOCAL LAW ENFORCEMENT IN                              
BAYFIELD/ASHLAND/IRON COUNTIES IN CASE WHITE OUT CONDITIONS BECOME              
WIDESPREAD.                                                                     
ALSO KEEPING CLOSE WATCH ON RA/SN TRANSITION ZONE THAT IS                       
CURRENTLY SET UP ALONG THE DLH/MPX CWA BORDER IN NRN WISCONSIN.                 
LATEST SFC OBS ARE REPORTING RA FROM OSCEOLA...TO RICE LAKE AND                 
LADYSMITH...AND JUST SN JUST TO THE NORTH FROM CAMBRIDGE...TO                   
SIREN...AND PHILLIPS.                                                           
PREV DISCUSSION...                                                              
WELL ADVERTISED SYSTEM BEHAVING AS EXPECTED WITH ONE EXCEPTION.                 
DOME OF COLD AIR IN SFC/85H LAYER HAS MAINTAINED ITSELF ACROSS NW               
WIS EARLY THIS MORNING. ANIMATION OF RUC13 THERMAL/WIND FIELDS IN               
BDRY LAYER INDICATE THAT COLDER AIR IS UNDERCUTTING SOUTHWEST FLOW              
ALOFT. 925H WINDS HAVE SHIFTED FROM SOUTH TO EAST ALONG A RZN TO                
HYR TO PBH LINE. THIS HAS PUSHED MAIN CONVERGENCE ZONE IN LOW                   
LEVELS FARTHER SOUTH TO ERN PART OF MPX CWA. BAYFIELD PENINSULA                 
APPEARS TO BE EXPERIENCING ENHANCED PRECIP FROM LONG TRAJECTORY                 
DOWN LAKE SUPERIOR. LATEST MSAS SHOWS WELL DEFINED SFC INVERTED                 
TROUGH FROM LOW OVER ERN NEB TO EAX TO HOUGHTON IN UP OF MI. 3HR                
PRESSRR OVER SERN PART OF CWA CURRENTLY. LATEST SAT IMAGERY SHOWS               
LARGE AREA OF COOLING CLOUD TOPS ACROSS ERN DAKOTAS IN VICINITY OF              
DIVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER TROF. STRONG UPPER JETS POISED                 
OVER ONTARIO... WITH NRN BRANCH... AND LEFT EXIT REGION OF SRN                  
PLAINS JET TRANSLATING NE INTO SRN MN/WI.                                       
TODAY/TONIGHT...ONLY SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO EXISTING FCST WAS TO UPGRADE         
BURNETT/WASHBURN/SAWYER COUNTIES TO WSW. THIS IS PRIMARILY BECAUSE              
EXISTING THERMAL BDRY IN LOW LAYERS AND UNDERCUTTING OF COLD AIR                
SHOULD ENSURE MOSTLY SNOW FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE STORM. FSCT                   
SNDGS ALSO REFLECT THIS CHANGE FROM YESTERDAY. BLIZZARD CONDITIONS              
STILL EXPECTED TODAY ALONG HEAD OF LAKE AS FUNNELING OF HIGHER                  
SPEED AIR OCCURS. DYT ALREADY GUSTING TO ABOUT 40MPH. MAJOR                     
FORCING FACTORS STILL IN PLAY. A LARGE AREA OF MDT/STRONG                       
FRONTOGENESIS WILL BE ENHANCED AS UPPER TROF ADVECTS EAST TODAY.                
COUPLED JETS WILL ADD TO SYNOPTIC SCALE ASCENT. SOME MIX OF                     
SN/IP/FZRA ACROSS EXTREME ERN CWA AS SFC LOW GETS CLOSER THIS                   
AFTERNOON. WITH COLD AIR ALREADY IN PLACE AND SATURATION OCCURING               
IN DEEP LAYER SUSPECT THAT POPTYP MAY BE MORE A WET SNOW OR SLEET               
VS COLD RAIN IN THIS AREA. WINDCHILL VALUES APPROACH/EXCEED                     
ADVISORY CATEGORY TONIGHT BUT DID NOT WANT TO ADD ANOTHER ADVISORY              
TO BUSY SLATE. WILL VERBALIZE THE THREAT IN THE WSW AND HWO                     
PRODUCTS. TEMPERATURES WILL DROP BELOW ZERO OVER MOST OF THE                    
REGION TONIGHT AND REMAIN BELOW ZERO PERHAPS UNTIL WEDNESDAY                    
AFTERNOON. PLENTY OF BLOWING SNOW EXPECTED AS GUSTY WINDS PUSH                  
FLUFFY LOW DENSITY FLAKES ALL OVER THE PLACE.                                   
MONDAY...STORM LOOSENS ITS GRIP BY MONDAY AFTERNOON OVER CWA.                   
SN/BS STILL EXPECTED THROUGH MORNING MOST AREAS. WITH 85/70H RH                 
STILL ABOVE 60 PERCENT MOST OF DAY...SHOULD SEE ADDITIONAL SNOW                 
FOR SNOWBELT WITH VERY HIGH SNOW/LIQUID RATIOS. MAY NEED TO EXTEND              
WARNING IN THAT AREA.                                                           
EXTENDED....TUE THRU SAT...                                                     
SEVERAL S/WVS WILL TRANSIT THE REGION...REQUIRING AT LEAST SOME LOW             
POPS. THE DRY ARCTIC AIR THAT WILL BE IN PLACE WILL LIMIT ANY                   
POTENTIAL PRECIP. THE MOST LIKELY DRY PD WILL BE WED/THU UNDER WK               
RIDGING ALOFT...ALTHO SRN ZONES MAY RECEIVE SOME PRECIP BEING ON THE            
NRN FRINGES OF A SFC SYSTEM MOVG UP THE OH VLY. BOTH GFS AND ECMWF              
SHOW THIS SYSTEM...ALTHO THERE ARE TIMING DIFFS.                                
AVIATION...                                                                     
GENERALLY IFR/LIFR CONDS IN SN/FG/BLSN WILL PERSIST THRU THE TAF PD             
AS MAJ WINT STORM MOVES FROM NEB TO LK SUP BY MON MRNG. AT THAT TIME            
CONDS WILL BEGIN TO GRADUALLY IMPROVE AS THE STORM MOVES AWAY.                  
STRONG NE WINDS WILL SIFT TO THE NW AS THE STORM PASSES...THEN                  
GRADUALLY DIMINISH DURING THE DAY ON MON.                                       
&&                                                                              
POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                             
DLH -10  -5 -21   0 /  80  40  10  20                                           
INL -11  -6 -28  -5 /  80  40  10  20                                           
BRD  -9  -4 -18   1 /  80  20  10  20                                           
HYR  -4   1 -19   2 /  80  30  10  20                                           
ASX  -2   3 -14   5 /  80  50  20  20                                           
&&                                                                              
.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
MN...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 4 AM CST MONDAY FOR CROW WING-PINE-             
     SOUTHERN AITKIN-SOUTHERN CASS.                                             
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 12 PM CST MONDAY FOR CENTRAL ST.                
     LOUIS-KOOCHICHING-NORTHERN AITKIN-NORTHERN CASS-NORTHERN                   
     COOK/NORTHERN LAKE-NORTHERN ITASCA-NORTHERN ST. LOUIS-                     
     SOUTHERN COOK/LAKESHORE-SOUTHERN ITASCA-SOUTHERN                           
     LAKE/LAKESHORE.                                                            
     BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 12 PM CST MONDAY FOR CARLTON/SOUTHERN ST.           
     LOUIS.                                                                     
WI...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 4 AM CST MONDAY FOR BURNETT-SAWYER-             
     WASHBURN.                                                                  
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 12 PM CST MONDAY FOR ASHLAND-BAYFIELD-          
     IRON.                                                                      
     BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 12 PM CST MONDAY FOR DOUGLAS.                       
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM CST MONDAY FOR PRICE.                   
LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM MONDAY TO 4 AM CST TUESDAY FOR              
     LSZ121-LSZ146-LSZ147-LSZ148.                                               
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 4 AM CST MONDAY FOR LSZ121-LSZ144-LSZ145-               
     LSZ146-LSZ147-LSZ148.                                                      
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 4 PM CST MONDAY FOR LSZ144-              
     LSZ145.                                                                    
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM CST MONDAY FOR LSZ140-LSZ141-              
     LSZ142-LSZ143.                                                             
$$                                                                              
GRANING/EOM                                                                     
</pre> mn                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN                              
1218 PM CST SUN DEC 14 2008                                                     
.AVIATION.../18Z TAF ISSUANCE/                                                  
NOT MUCH CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST EXPECTATIONS THROUGH THE                 
PERIOD. SURFACE LOW IS CURRENTLY IN THE VICINITY OF KMSP AND WILL               
LIFT NORTHEAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. COLD AIR HAS WRAPPED AROUND               
THE WESTERN AND SOUTHERN SIDES OF THE LOW... CHANGES PCPN TO SNOW               
IN MOST OF THAT AREA. NEAR AND EAST OF THE LOW TEMPERATURES REMAIN              
ABOVE FREEZING... HOWEVER AS COLD AIR ARRIVES NEAR AND SOUTH OF                 
THE LOW THERE WILL BE A WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR SOME LIGHT                    
FREEZING PRECIPITATION DUE TO DRIER AIR ALOFT AND THE PRESENCE OF               
SUPERCOOLED DROPS IN THE LOW LEVELS. IN GENERAL... THESE                        
CONDITIONS WILL GIVE WAY TO AN INCREASE IN DEEP LAYER MOISTURE                  
OVER THE ENTIRE AREA BY THIS EVENING... WITH ANY PCPN EXPECTED TO               
BE IN THE FORM OF SNOW AT ALL LOCATIONS... WITH KMSP... KRNH...                 
AND KEAU BEING THE ONLY SITES WITH ANY REAL PCPN TYPE ISSUES FROM               
18Z THROUGH 00Z. VISIBILITIES WILL BE EXTREMELY LOW OVER THE WEST               
WHERE FALLING AND BLOWING SNOW WILL HOLD THEM BELOW 1/2 MILE AND                
BELOW 1/4 MILE AT TIMES. ELSEWHERE... VISIBILITIES WILL GENERALLY               
VARY FROM IFR TO MVFR THROUGH THE EVENING. CEILINGS ACROSS THE                  
AREA WILL BE IFR FOR MOST OF THE PERIOD... IMPROVING TO MVFR                    
OVERNIGHT... BUT WITH SOME PERIODS OF LIFR THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS                
WILL BE QUITE STRONG ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE SURFACE LOW...                      
SUSTAINED NEAR 20KT AND GUSTING ABOVE 30KT FOR MUCH OF THE                      
NIGHT... BEFORE WINDING DOWN ON MONDAY. THANKS TO CWSU ZMP FOR                  
COLLABORATION ON KMSP CONDITIONS... THEIR FORECAST THOUGHTS ARE                 
INCLUDED BELOW.                                                                 
INPUT FROM CWSU ZMP... CURRENTLY WE HAVE A LOW OVR NE IA... A WRM               
AND QS FNT N OF MSP AND THRU THE U.P. MICH... AND A COLD FNT DOWN               
OVR ERN NE. LOW IS XPCTD TO DEEPEN AS IT MOVS THRU SE MN... INCRSG              
THE SFC PRES GRAD... AND THEN BEGIN TO OCLD AS LOW MOVS OVR THE U.P.            
AT THE 24-HR POINT. LOCAL SFC TEMPS ARE XPCTD TO DROP AT A RATE OF              
5 F DEGREES PER HR WITH PASSAGE OF COLD FNT AFT 12Z. WITH ATMOS                 
COLUMN DROPPING ENTIRELY BLO FZG BY 20Z... PCPN WILL TURN OVR TO SN.            
ALTHOUGH THE MDLS ARE LESS DIVERGENT IN THEIR SOLUTIONS TODAY...                
ONCE AGAIN NO ONE MDL SEEMS TO HAVE ALL THE ANSWERS. I BELIEVE MM5              
IS BETTER HANDLING THE CLDS... WHILE NAM HAS A MORE REASONABLE PCPN             
OUTLOOK. I`D START THE CLDS AT BKN005 OVC010... DROPPING TO OVC005              
FROM 21Z THRU 01Z. AFTER THAT THE CIGS RISE TO 015 THRU 06Z... THEN             
025 THRU 18Z. THE MM5 WOULD LEAD ONE TO XPCT CIGS NEAR THE SFC                  
TOMMOROW AM... BUT THE GUSTY SFC WNDS AND LOWERING BNDRY LYR                    
ABSOLUTE HUM CONVINCE ME THAT THAT WON/T HAPPEN. I/M FINE WITH THE              
VIS TREND AS FCSTD IN THE 18Z TAF. THE LOWERING VIS TONIGHT ARE                 
MORE A RESULT OF GUSTY WNDS BLOWING THE SN AROUND THAN THE ACTUAL               
SN RATE; NO MDL SEEMS TO ACCOUNT FOR BLSN. I ALSO AGREE WITH                    
ENDING THE SN BY 12Z. THE WNDS ARE ALMOST A STRAIGHT-FORWARD FCST               
COMPARED TO EVERYTHING ELSE. FROPA SHOULD OCCUR RIGHT AT TAF                    
TIME... SWITCHING THE DIR TO 290-300. STEADY SPDS COULD BE ABV                  
20KT BY 21Z... RISING TO 24KT BY 06Z. AFT 06Z SPDS DROP STEADILY                
TO 10KT BY 00Z AND 5KT BY END OF TAF.                                           
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION...                                                             
/ISSUED 930 AM CST SUN DEC 14 2008/                                             
LATEST RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS BAND OF PCPN LIFTING NORTH AND                       
BEGINNING TO PIVOT OVER THE AREA. PCPN TYPE GOES FROM RAIN TO SNOW              
AS YOU MOVE SOUTHEAST TO NORTHWEST THROUGH THIS PCPN AREA... WITH               
SOME SLEET IN THE TRANSITION ZONE. THERE IS SOME FZDZ AND FREEZING              
RAIN AROUND... ALTHOUGH IT APPEARS TO BE MAINLY IN THE LIGHTER                  
PCPN SOUTH OF THE MAIN AXIS OF PCPN... PRIMARILY FROM NEAR                      
LITCHFIELD SOUTHWEST TO REDWOOD FALLS. THINKING IS THAT THIS AREA               
IS SEEING THE MID-LEVELS DRY OUT A BIT AS THE PCPN MOVES NORTH...               
AND HAS AN ENTIRE SUB-FREEZING SOUNDING... BUT IS NOT COLD ENOUGH               
TO GET ICE CRYSTALS TO FORM IN THE SATURATED LAYER. THIS COULD                  
CONTINUE TO BE A BIT OF A HEADACHE OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL               
AND EAST CENTRAL MINNESOTA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS THE COLD AIR                
SURGES IN... BUT THE MOISTURE DEPTH REMAINS LIMITED... SO THERE                 
CONTINUES TO BE A NEED TO MENTION SOME FZRA/FZDZ IN THE FORECAST.               
DEEPER MOISTURE DOES EVENTUALLY ARRIVE ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE                  
SURFACE LOW AS IT MOVE THROUGH THE METRO NORTHEAST INTO                         
WISCONSIN... WHICH WILL WORK TO TAKE CARE OF THIS ISSUE. THE RUC                
HAS A GOOD HANDLE ON THE CURRENT LOW LEVEL TEMPERATURES... WIND                 
FIELDS... AND LOW POSITION... AND FAVOR ITS DEPICTION OF THINGS                 
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY... WHICH LINES UP REASONABLY WELL              
WITH THE PREVIOUS NAM FORECASTS. WITH THAT SAID... THE CURRENT                  
HEADLINES LOOK OK FOR THE MOMENT... BUT THERE MAY BE SOME NEED TO               
EXTEND WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES FARTHER SOUTHEAST IF THERE IS                  
MORE IN THE WAY OF FZDZ/FZRA IN THE AFOREMENTIONED ZONE OF MID-                 
LEVEL DRYING. THE REMAINS ADVISORIES AND WARNINGS STILL LOOK ON                 
TRACK... WITH THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE HEAVIER SNOW/PCPN LIKELY                 
ANCHORING ITSELF VERY SOON BEFORE PIVOTING THEN LIFTING                         
NORTHEAST... KEEPING THE SAME AREAS WITHIN THE ZONE OF FAVORABLE                
UPPER DIVERGENCE AND MID-LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS FOR AN EXTENDED                    
PERIOD OF TIME THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. IT APPEARS THE                      
SOUTHEAST EDGE OF THIS MAIN PCPN BAND WILL ANCHOR FROM NEAR                     
GRANITE FALLS NORTHEAST THROUGH ST CLOUD TO MORA... WITH AREAS                  
NORTH OF THAT SEEING THE GREATEST SNOW POTENTIAL... WHICH LINES UP              
WELL WITH CURRENT WARNINGS. STRONGEST WINDS OWING TO THE PRESSURE               
GRADIENT... ISALLOBARIC CONTRIBUTIONS... AND SURFACE ROUGHNESS                  
ISSUES WILL BE OVER WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE              
FORECAST AREA... WITH THE CURRENT BLIZZARD WARNINGS LOOKING OK                  
WITH RESPECT TO WHERE THOSE STRONG WINDS MESH WITH EXPECTED                     
SNOWFALL. THE METRO AREA WILL LIKELY SEE SOME LIGHT PCPN THROUGH                
MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON... WITH SOME FZDZ/FZRA POSSIBLE TOWARD MID                
AFTERNOON AS THE SOUNDING COOLS BELOW FREEZING YET THE MID LEVELS               
REMAIN TOO DRY TO SEED THINGS WITH ICE NUCLEI. ONCE AGAIN... WILL               
NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON THIS POTENTIAL WITH RESPECT TO EXTENDING                 
THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY. REGARDLESS... THE COLD AIR WILL                    
ARRIVE IN EARNEST ON THE HEELS OF STRONG WESTERLY WINDS AROUND AND              
AFTER 3PM IN THE METRO... WHICH COULD WORK TO QUICKLY ICE UP THE                
CURRENTLY WET SURFACES EVEN IF FREEZING PCPN DOESN/T MATERIALIZE.               
WILL BE WORKING ON SOME UPDATES... WITH UPDATED GRIDS AND ZONE                  
FORECAST COMING... ALTHOUGH CHANGES SHOULD NOT BE TOO SIGNIFICANT.              
&&                                                                              
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
MN...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 12 PM CST MONDAY              
     FOR ANOKA-BENTON-BLUE EARTH-BROWN-CARVER-CHIPPEWA-DAKOTA-                  
     DOUGLAS-FARIBAULT-FREEBORN-GOODHUE-HENNEPIN-KANDIYOHI-LAC                  
     QUI PARLE-LE SUEUR-MARTIN-MCLEOD-MEEKER-MORRISON-NICOLLET-                 
     POPE-RAMSEY-REDWOOD-RENVILLE-RICE-SCOTT-SHERBURNE-SIBLEY-                  
     STEARNS-STEELE-STEVENS-SWIFT-TODD-WASECA-WASHINGTON-                       
     WATONWAN-WRIGHT-YELLOW MEDICINE.                                           
     BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR CHIPPEWA-DOUGLAS-          
     LAC QUI PARLE-POPE-STEVENS-SWIFT-YELLOW MEDICINE.                          
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR BENTON-                
     KANABEC-KANDIYOHI-MILLE LACS-MORRISON-STEARNS-TODD.                        
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR CHISAGO-            
     ISANTI-MEEKER-REDWOOD-RENVILLE-SHERBURNE-WRIGHT.                           
WI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR BARRON-             
     POLK-RUSK.                                                                 
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
TRH/PDP                                                                         
</pre> mn                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK                                               
1127 AM CST SUN DEC 14 2008                                                     
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
GUSTY SOUTH WINDS CONTINUING AHEAD OF APPROACHING STRONG COLD                   
FRONT...WITH MVFR CIGS GOING SCATTERED IN NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS.                 
COLD FRONT WILL BE IN THE TULSA AREA AROUND 21Z...THEN SE TO KMLC-              
KXNA NEAR 00Z AND THROUGH FSM BY 04Z. PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS BEHIND                
FRONT MOST AREAS...WITH SOME LIGHT -SHRA POSSIBLE OVER NW ARKANSAS              
ALONG AND IMMEDIATELY BEHIND FRONT. BRIEF PERIOD OF LIGHT FREEZING              
RAIN OR DRIZZLE MENTIONED AT KXNA/KFYV BUT LITTLE OR NO ACCUM.                  
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 829 AM CST SUN DEC 14 2008/                         
DISCUSSION...                                                                   
ARCTIC FRONT BARRELING SOUTH AND AT 8 AM WAS THROUGH WICHITA AND                
EXTENDED BACK INTO NORTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE. WHILE IT MAY SLOW A                
LITTLE DURING THE DAY IT DOES APPEAR TO BE A COUPLE OF HOURS AHEAD              
OF SCHEDULE AND IS EVEN SLIGHTLY FASTER THAN LOCAL WRF AND RUC13.               
WILL BE ISSUING UPDATES AS NECESSARY THIS MORNING TO REFLECT                    
TIMING. PRECIP AMOUNTS STILL LOOK MINIMAL AND MAINLY CONFINED TO                
FAR NE OKLAHOMA THROUGH NW ARKANSAS.                                            
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 550 AM CST SUN DEC 14 2008/                          
DISCUSSION...                                                                   
AVIATION...                                                                     
LOW CLOUDS REMAIN NEAR THE TUL/RVS AREA AND EXTEND                              
SE TO NEAR FSM.  CLOUD DECK WILL LIKELY BECOME                                  
SCATTERED BY MID MORNING/RISING ABOVE 3KFT. GUSTY                               
SOUTH WINDS WILL CONTINUE AHEAD OF STRONG COLD                                  
FRONT...WHICH IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE TUL                                  
AREA AROUND 400 PM. BEST RAIN CHANCES WILL LIKELY                               
REMAIN OVER NW ARK THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT                              
HOURS ALONG THE FRONT AND IS COVERED WITH A                                     
PROB30 GROUP.                                                                   
AVIATION=12                                                                     
PREV DISCUSSION...                                                              
WILD SWINGS AND OSCILLATIONS OF THE WEATHER PENDULUM                            
COMING UP.  UNSEASONABLY MILD  (AT OR NEAR RECORDS)                             
TODAY WITH SOUTH WINDS 20 GUSTING TO ABOUT 40.  NOT                             
QUITE AS WINDY AS YESTERDAY.  10Z SURFACE MAP SHOWS                             
ARCTIC FRONT NOW HALF WAY THROUGH KANSAS. NORTHWEST                             
KANSAS IN THE TEENS AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST KANSAS 60.                            
MODELS HAVE BEEN  CONSISTENT WITH THIS ARCTIC FRONT                             
PLUS OR MINUS A COUPLE HOURS. LOOKS LIKE VERY CLOSE                             
TO INTERSTATE 44 AXIS @ 5PM. COLD AIR COMING FASTER                             
THAN MODELS SIGNAL.  PRECIP ON THE LIGHT SIDE SINCE                             
THE COLD DRY AIR RUSHES IN SO FAST. A WINTRY MIX OF                             
PRECIP CHANGING FROM RAIN TO FREEZING RAIN FREEZING                             
DRIZZLE OR SLEET.  CHANCE OF MEASURABLE PRECIP LESS                             
THAN 50 PERCENT AT MOST EASTERN OKLAHOMA ZONES WITH                             
A BETTER THAN EVEN CHANCE FOR NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.                               
LITTLE CHANCE RESIDUAL PRECIP MONDAY EXCEPT EXTREME                             
SOUTHEAST.   MONDAY WILL BE AS UNSEASONABLY COLD AS                             
TODAY IS UNSEASONABLY WARM.                                                     
LOW CONFIDENCE LEVEL FORECAST TUESDAY - THURSDAY AS                             
BOUNDARY BETWEEN ATTIC AIR AND MUCH WARMER AIR JUST                             
SOUTH OSCILLATES NORTH INTO... OR NEAR OUR FORECAST                             
AREA..THEN EVENTUAL BACK SOUTH. MODEL SURFACE TEMPS                             
VARY BY GREATER  THAN 25 DEGREES FOR FORECAST TEMPS                             
VALID AT THE SAME TIME. ARCTIC AIR ONCE IN PLACE IS                             
OFTEN DIFFICULT TO DISLODGE SO LEANED HEAVILY COLD.                             
MODELS (GFS ECMWF GLOBAL) DO AGREE THAT ANOTHER SHOT                            
OF VERY COLD WEATHER WILL ARRIVE NEXT WEEKEND.   GW                             
&&                                                                              
.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
OK...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM SUNDAY FOR OKZ054-OKZ055-OKZ056-OKZ057-           
     OKZ058-OKZ059-OKZ060-OKZ061-OKZ062-OKZ063-OKZ064-OKZ065-                   
     OKZ066-OKZ067-OKZ068-OKZ069-OKZ070-OKZ071-OKZ072-OKZ073-                   
     OKZ074.                                                                    
AR...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM SUNDAY FOR ARZ001-ARZ002-ARZ010-ARZ011.           
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHORT TERM...99                                                                 
LONG TERM....99                                                                 
AVIATION...14                                                                   
</pre> ok                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX                                             
343 PM CST SUN DEC 14 2008                                                      
.SHORT TERM...                                                                  
RUC APPEARS TO HAVE BEST HANDLE WITH COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE               
TEXAS PANHANDLE THIS AFTERNOON. WILL THUS TREND TOWARD ITS                      
SOLUTION. THAT WILL BRING THE FRONT INTO MY NORTHERN ZONES AT                   
AROUND 4 PM TO LUBBOCK BETWEEN 5 AND 6 PM AND THROUGH THE SOUTH                 
PLAINS BY 8 PM. STRONG GUSTY WINDS HAVE BEEN REPORTED BY TEXAS                  
MESONET SITES AHEAD OF COLD FRONT...HOWEVER EXPECT WINDS WILL                   
DIMINISH SLIGHTLY AS FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION AND WILL LET                
WIND WARNING AND ADVISORY EXPIRE AT 4 PM. CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED               
TO INCREASE WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE. ALSO TEMPERATURES TO PLUNGE                   
RAPIDLY THIS EVENING AND THUS CANNOT CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT                 
POSSIBILITY OF SOME LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE OR A FEW FLURRIES...                 
WILL HOWEVER CONTINUE TO LEAVE POPS BELOW MENTIONABLE LEVELS.                   
ARCTIC AIR MASS EXPECTED TO BE IN REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE                    
REGION ON MONDAY AND WILL THUS CONTINUE TO UNDERCUT GUIDANCE FOR                
HIGHS.                                                                          
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM...                                                                   
MOST DIFFICULT PART OF THE FCST CONTINUES TO BE WHAT TEMPERATURES               
WILL DO. CONTINUED PREV FCST WHICH KEEPS COOL AIR IN PLACE ACROSS               
THE NORTHEAST AND AREAS OFF THE CAPROCK...WHILE THE SOUTHWESTERN                
PORTIONS OF THE AREA HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO CLIMB INTO THE 50S                   
STARTING TUESDAY. SHOULD FINALLY SEE THE AIRMASS MODIFY BY THURSDAY             
THANKS TO CONTINUED SWLY FLOW FINALLY HELPING TO MIX OUT THE COLD               
AIR...AND TEMPS AREA WIDE SHOULD FINALLY GET BACK INTO THE MID TO               
UPPER 50S BY FRI.                                                               
MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW ANOTHER DUMP OF COLD ARCTIC AIR MOVING                  
INTO THE AREA BY FRIDAY ALTHOUGH THE TIMINGS HAVE SWITCHED. THE                 
GFS IS NOW THE FASTER THAN THE ECMWF. REGARDLESS...TEMPERATURES                 
WILL ONCE AGAIN GO WELL BELOW NORMAL FOR THE END OF THE WEEK INTO               
THE WEEKEND. CONTINUES TO APPEAR THAT THIS WILL BE ANOTHER DRY                  
FRONTAL PASSAGE WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF WINDY AND DUSTY CONDITIONS              
AHEAD OF THE FRONT.                                                             
JORDAN                                                                          
 &&                                                                             
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
FRIONA        17  29  19  51  23 /  10  10  10   0   0                          
TULIA         16  28  17  40  24 /  10  10   0   0   0                          
PLAINVIEW     18  29  18  44  25 /  10  10   0   0   0                          
LEVELLAND     22  32  21  53  29 /  10  10  10   0   0                          
LUBBOCK       22  30  20  49  28 /  10  10   0   0   0                          
DENVER CITY   25  35  23  55  37 /  10  10  10   0   0                          
BROWNFIELD    25  32  22  53  33 /  10  10   0   0   0                          
CHILDRESS     19  25  17  35  24 /  10  10   0   0   0                          
SPUR          24  29  18  42  29 /  10  10   0   0   0                          
ASPERMONT     24  28  17  42  31 /  10  10   0   0   0                          
&&                                                                              
.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 4 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE                         
FOLLOWING ZONES: TXZ027-033>035-039-040.                                        
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE FOLLOWING                   
ZONES: TXZ021>024-028>030-036-041-042.                                          
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
08/14                                                                           
</pre> tx