FXUS04 KWBC 181848
QPFPFD
 
QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
247 PM EDT MON OCT 18 2004
 
PRELIM DAY 1 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID OCT 19/0000 UTC THRU OCT 20/0000 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR
 
 
DAY 1...

...ERN HALF OF THE NATION...

THE MDLS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT MASS FIELD AND QPF-WISE
REGARDING THE SYS MOVG THRU THE ERN STATES THIS PD..WITH A LRG
AREA OF OVRRNG RNFL LIKELY MID ATLC STATES NWD INTO NEW ENG
AND ORGANIZED CNVCTN LIKELY TN VLY AND GULF CST STATES..IN
FAVORABLE REGION BTWN THE POLAR AND SUBTROP JETS.    THE WELL
DEFINED H5 S/WV FCST TO MOV FM THE MID MS VLY ATTM INTO NEW ENG
BY TUE EVE WL BE PRECEDED BY A STG LOW LVL WAA PATN..WITH UP TO
40-50KTS OF SSWLY TO WSWLY LLJ BRINGING IN PWS IN EXCESS OF 1.50
INCHES.   THIS MSTR ADVECTION AND LOW LVL CNVGNC VCNTY OF THE
FNTL BNDRY AND FNTL WV WL SUPPORT THE WIDESPREAD MDT TO LCLY
HVY RNFL AMTS..AS PER BOTH THE ETA AND GFS QPF SOLNS.   RNFL
TOTALS BTWN 1 AND 2 INCHES PROBABLE FM PTNS OF THE UPR OH VLY
AND ESP INTO NEW ENG.   FARTHER TO THE S AND W..SLOLY
PROGRESSIVE AND COINCIDENT LLJ AND HIEST PW AXES LIKELY TO
SUPPORT ORGANIZED CNVCTN MOVG ACRS THE TN VLY AND GULF CST
STATES IN FAVORABLE REGION BTWN THE POLAR AND SUBTROP
JETS..WITH SOME LEFT EXIT REGION JET DYNAMICS FM THE SUBTROP
JET STGLY IN PLACE BY LTR TUE MRNG AND AFTN.   AGAIN..THE GFS AND
ETA QPFS WERE SIMILAR HERE..SO DIDN'T HAVE TO MAKE SIGNIFICANT
CHGS.

...WRN STATES...

MDLS CONT TO BRING THE STG SRN GULF OF AK MID/UPR LVL TROF INTO
THE PAC NW AND NRN CA BY THE END OF THIS PD..PRECEDED BY AN
INCREASE IN LOW LVL ONSHORE FLO AND ACCOMPANIED BY DECENT
FNTL CNVGNC.     WITH UP TO 50KTS OF SWLY/WSWLY LLJ..STG FNTL
CNVGNC AND POOLING OF PWS TO GTR THAN 1 INCH VCNTY OF THE
FNT..XPC THERE TO BE MDT TO LCLY HVY RNFL AMTS ESP ALG THE CSTL
RANGES..WITH SOME VRY HVY HIER ELEV SNOWS INT THE SIERRA.  
LEANED A LTL MORE TWDS THE HIER RES ETA QPF..BUT ALL IN ALL..EVEN
THE GFS QPF LOOKED GOOD AND THERE WASN'T A SIGNIFICANT DIFF
BTWN THEM.   XPC SOME RNFL AMTS GTR THAN INCHES IN THE CSTL
RANGES AND GTR THAN 2 INCH WTR EQUIVALENTS IN THE SIERRA.  
LESSER RNFL AMTS LIKELY FARTHER N IN A LESS FAVORABLE LOW LVL
FLO REGIME AND WHERE MID/UPR LVL FORCING NOT AS GOOD.

TERRY

GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT WWW.HPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV 
24HR QP VT 20/00Z
 0.01 427923 439949 442962 442978 437987 432995 426005 424014 
      426023 434036 445043 483061 512071 524070 534059 539047 
      544003 542974 536955 526933 505905 495893 484881 473868 
      468861 464856 459850 454840 452835 451828 449817 448806 
      447795 445782 444771 441733 439712 436691 430667 428659 
      424649 419645 413644 410643 407645 399652 394658 390664 
      389667 385674 383682 379692 375698 371704 364711 354722 
      345738 330762 316787 309794 302798 294801 288802 282802 
      275800 272799 270801 268804 269807 279814 292819 304821 
      308821 312819 316817 320813 324807 328805 332804 345806 
      347809 342815 327827 308849 303855 299862 294874 288888 
      284906 285917 292926 298937 302945 311951 316959 323962 
      332955 349935 360920 364911 370910 373911 375913 379919 
      383920 387919 394915 397913 400909 404903 406901 409901 
      412902 416905 418908 427923 
 0.01 531204 533193 533185 528173 522163 514153 500140 491131 
      487127 481125 472124 462126 458127 451128 446126 443122 
      442116 447114 450111 448106 449103 451102 453101 453097 
      450096 444095 437095 432092 429089 422088 417089 411088 
      407088 404090 400092 398093 397090 400086 403083 408081 
      411079 415075 418071 418067 415061 411059 408056 406055 
      403056 395061 389062 385061 376062 372059 369059 367061 
      372072 371080 372087 377095 380099 381105 374109 366115 
      360121 356124 354131 356136 358138 361135 368137 371141 
      374152 377163 376169 374173 365175 360176 356179 348183 
      346175 345167 343163 341160 339158 336159 326159 323161 
      322164 324171 327180 330189 342216 368240 395259 417266 
      443269 449268 458267 468270 477278 487285 493287 497288 
      502287 504287 507283 513274 517270 519267 517253 516248 
      518243 524236 529216 529209 530205 531204 
 0.25 527995 525983 522971 517961 512954 505948 499944 491941 
      486941 481943 476945 471945 463942 460941 457942 456948 
      458954 466973 472995 474999 478002 486005 502008 509013 
      514015 519014 524011 525007 527995 
 0.25 501270 503266 503262 504253 505243 505238 501226 499214 
      497199 494186 490182 485182 485192 478199 471203 465204 
      461204 456206 453208 436213 425214 422215 420213 415208 
      412206 405205 400201 385190 377185 368182 364183 361186 
      360192 358196 348196 343198 342202 344210 351218 365230 
      380242 387248 399253 411257 421259 460259 480264 492268 
      501270 
 0.25 430687 427675 424669 421665 419663 415663 412664 408666 
      403672 399680 392693 385709 380724 375732 373740 374744 
      376748 379757 378765 376773 370787 365800 360815 357823 
      354828 340833 331842 320854 316859 313865 310872 309879 
      310886 312892 318899 319910 319916 322923 327930 327936 
      328940 333941 337936 346923 352911 359898 362894 365892 
      369891 373890 379892 383898 385901 390900 393892 399877 
      403864 406856 410852 414850 421851 425845 427836 428828 
      432791 435774 437755 437735 436719 433700 430687 
 0.25 454184 453182 450182 449183 450186 453186 454184 
 0.25 417119 417118 415114 414114 412110 412109 410106 409105 
      406104 405106 403108 402110 400113 402117 403117 406118 
      408119 411120 414120 417119 417119 
 0.50 492253 490243 484236 479231 477228 476216 468213 463211 
      459211 446216 430222 426223 424228 421225 418221 418217 
      415214 407210 392199 379189 372185 367185 365187 364190 
      366195 366198 364201 360202 349200 346203 346206 348210 
      353215 359220 365227 371233 378238 385243 393248 400251 
      410254 418255 426255 443254 459254 476255 487256 492253 
 0.50 497982 496981 494978 493977 491978 490980 487981 486979 
      484978 483980 485981 487984 488985 491986 493987 494987 
      496983 497982 
 0.50 429692 426681 424677 421673 416671 410674 406679 402685 
      396699 393712 391721 391728 390741 389749 387754 383769 
      382776 381784 379796 374810 369822 366829 362834 358838 
      352840 346839 340840 335843 331848 323858 320864 321869 
      324874 325884 329890 328895 328902 330907 334911 339912 
      344909 348903 355892 359887 363883 369879 376878 378878 
      381880 384887 388890 391883 393868 396856 400841 403834 
      406828 419819 423813 425807 427792 433760 434752 434745 
      434729 434719 432710 429692 
 1.00 425691 422684 420681 415681 412683 408687 405692 403697 
      402705 401714 399725 399734 401744 399752 397757 398763 
      401768 401774 401784 399793 396803 395810 385826 382834 
      379840 375849 373853 373858 375862 378863 380862 383857 
      389842 394826 399817 404810 408803 412799 416797 421790 
      423779 426769 428763 430741 430732 429720 426704 425691 
 1.00 437242 435237 430236 425235 420233 416230 415225 415220 
      413217 409214 392201 383194 379191 373190 371191 372194 
      375199 376205 375208 373210 367209 360208 355205 352204 
      351208 353211 357214 361217 365221 372229 381235 390242 
      399247 406249 411250 423250 431247 437242 
 1.50 425719 421709 418707 415711 413716 412727 413731 415737 
      419742 423741 425736 425727 425719 
 1.50 426243 424238 419236 413232 412227 412223 410218 402211 
      394204 387198 378193 375195 378199 383207 388213 395220 
      400224 397228 394229 391228 387223 383221 380222 376221 
      373216 370215 367215 364218 366220 374226 389237 397243 
      403246 408246 414247 418246 423246 426243 
 2.00 398240 400242 402243 404243 406243 408243 412243 415243 
      416240 413237 411235 407234 404232 401232 396234 395233 
      394237 395238 398240 
 2.00 405217 402214 400210 396207 392204 389202 384198 381196 
      378195 381199 383204 385207 388209 393213 396216 401219 
      405217  
 
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