FXUS04 KWBC 120640
QPFPFD
 
QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
240 AM EDT MON JUL 12 2004
 
PRELIM DAY 1 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID JUL 12/1200 UTC THRU JUL 13/1200 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR
 


...THE ERN U.S...

THE 0000 UTC MODELS AGREE THAT SHRTWV ENERGY ASOCTD WITH THE
MID LVL TROF WORKING ACROSS THE UPPER LAKES REGION WILL DIG
INTO THE BACKSIDE OF THE WEAK MID LVL SYSTEM ADVANCING ACROSS
THE OH VLY.   THE NET RESULT WILL BE AN AMPLIFYING MID LVL
TROF THAT TAKES ON A STG NEG TILT WITH TIME THAT WILL IMPART
STG DYNAMIC FORCING TO THE LIFTING PROCESS INVOF THE MID ATLC
REGION.   THIS FORCING IN COMBINATION WITH AN AREA OF STG LVL
MSTR CNVGNC THAT IS FCST TO PIVOT INVOF THE NRN MID ATLC
REGION WILL SET THE STAGE FOR A WIDESPREAD HVY TO EXCESSIVE
RNFL EVENT.   ALL AVAILABLE MODEL QPF GUIDANCE SUPPORTS THIS
SCENARIO AND FOR THE MOMENT SEE LITTLE REASON TO DIFFER FM
GUIDANCE IN THIS REGARD.

MEANWHILE...HI PWS REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE SE ATLC COASTAL
STATES INCDLG FL TO SUPPORT LCLY HVY CNVCTV RAINS.  SEVERAL
MECHANISMS WILL BE IN PLACE TO SUPPORT/TRIGGER ACTVTY ALONG
THIS ELONGATED AXIS.  CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT ASOCTD WITH EITHER
THE APCHG AFOREMENTIONED OH VLY SYSTEM OR THE UPPER LO NOW
ADVANCING EWD SOUTH OF CUBA WILL AID THE LIFTING PROCESS
WHILE MSTR FOCUSES ALONG LAND/SEA BNDRYS AND/OR A SFC TROF
AXIS THAT WILL DVLP IN THE LEE OF THE APLCNS AS A SFC LO
EVOLVES OVR THE MID ATLC REGION.   THE ETA AND GFS 24HR QPFS
ARE SIMILAR HERE... BUT THE TIMING OF THE RNFL IS DIFFICULT
GIVEN MODEL 6HR FCSTS THAT ARE VERY DIFFERENT.   

...UPPER OH/TN VLY AREA...

VERY DIFFICULT TO GET A HANDLE ON THE QPF HERE AS A WEAK
FRONTAL ZONE...OUTFLOW BNDRYS...AND BROAD BUT WEAK CYCLONIC
FLOW ALOFT WILL ALL CONTRIBUTE TO THE LIFTING PROCESS.  
OPTED TO BASICALLY BLEND THE GFS AND ETA QPF SOLUTIONS HERE.

...N CNTRL U.S...

AN UPPER TROF MOVG ACROSS SRN CANADA WILL TRIGGER CNVCTN
ALONG THE ASOCTD CDFNT PUSHING ACROSS THE ERN SECTIONS OF THE
NRN PLAINS BY THIS EVNG.   IN ADDITION...IT WILL ALSO HELP TO
FIRE AND OVRRNG RNFL EVENT ALONG AN OLD NW/SE ORIENTED FRONT
LYING ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST.  INTERESTINGLY
BOTH THE ETA AND GFS SUPPORT THE OVRRNG SCENARIO BUT ONLY
DEPICT LGT AMTS GIVEN THE WARM AIR ALOFT TO INHIBIT CNVCTV
DVLPMNT.  OPTED TO BE MORE AGGRESSIVE THAN BOTH OF THE MODELS
GIVEN THE MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR PRESENT BUT STILL PLAYED THE
EVENT CONSERVATIVELY FOR NOW.

...NAME AREA/SWRN U.S...

XPCT RATHER LGT PCPN THIS PD ACROSS THE NAME AREA AS DRY AIR
ASSOCD WITH THE APRCHG TUTT LOW BRINGS DEEPER DRY AIR ACRS
THE REGION.  EXPECT AFTN AND EVNG CNVCTN TO REDVLP FM CO TO
AZ ASOCTD WITH AN AREA OF HIER MSTR TRAPPED UNDER THE CNTRL
ROCKIES UPPER HI CELL.

KORTY

GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT WWW.HPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV



                                   
 
24HR QP VT 13/12Z
 0.01 224073 231074 235077 245086 255095 264102 273109 284116 
      308133 318139 322140 325138 327134 328129 329121 334119 
      337121 339125 342130 349134 353134 357132 360126 359117 
      354110 352104 356103 363105 366101 369094 372090 375089 
      380093 382095 387096 390089 392079 395072 398068 400068 
      405067 408065 414061 418053 418046 416040 412034 406027 
      400023 395021 391021 389024 380036 378039 375041 372043 
      368044 364045 359047 354051 348054 345053 340052 338049 
      332048 327050 322056 321059 323061 330064 316083 308081 
      304077 302074 299072 294068 281062 269057 261051 250039 
      242030 237026 230024 
 0.01 514242 513237 512233 511232 509230 507229 505230 503231 
      502233 503235 505239 508242 510245 514242 514242 
 0.01 520953 520946 519941 516925 514920 510914 503908 497903 
      489899 482898 469900 449907 446907 440905 434901 427897 
      420892 406881 404885 403890 401901 400913 398918 399925 
      400931 402937 406947 408950 409959 411972 414982 415988 
      418995 419999 419004 417011 417018 421021 424022 429032 
      433034 437031 442023 452008 457001 465993 472990 483988 
      503986 510983 513979 514973 515964 518959 520953 
 0.01 476732 475724 473719 471716 468713 464710 459710 456709 
      455704 455700 452693 448694 445697 442701 435710 430716 
      425718 419715 414712 411710 406710 396713 377709 368708 
      363708 357711 351717 348720 344724 340730 336737 333747 
      330752 328758 327768 323778 317787 309795 303797 298798 
      261797 251798 247798 244800 241803 241809 242815 245821 
      248825 254831 257833 258837 258842 261848 267855 269859 
      269863 269868 269875 271881 275886 280887 290885 298881 
      306874 316867 325863 326864 325871 324878 324883 323889 
      326897 330900 336899 340897 343893 347884 353879 357881 
      360887 363895 365900 368907 371912 374916 377923 379927 
      381930 385929 388920 389916 390908 390894 389879 390874 
      392867 393861 395855 398849 402844 408844 413846 428853 
      435865 441879 446893 449898 453898 455896 457888 458884 
      458874 456866 455858 456853 457846 456838 453830 451821 
      449811 447802 442786 441776 443772 457762 462758 469752 
      473742 476732 
 0.01 504272 504267 504266 503262 502258 501256 500253 498251 
      498250 495249 494249 491253 491257 493260 494263 495266 
      497269 498269 500272 503272 504272 
 0.01 301956 301951 299947 296946 290948 286953 281957 275961 
      265965 256966 249968 246975 244983 246992 251997 253000 
      256001 266002 272004 275005 280003 282001 285000 285990 
      289983 293977 296970 299963 301956 
 0.25 224063 234068 242073 258086 268089 280093 287098 296105 
      303111 307114 315117 318117 319114 322108 325103 324100 
      321099 315098 311096 302091 294082 287075 269065 260060 
      251054 245048 236040 234037 228035 
 0.25 501953 501947 499942 499936 494930 488929 484928 479928 
      474929 468934 464941 462950 464954 466957 474960 480961 
      486962 490962 495961 497959 500956 501953 
 0.25 444736 443731 441729 434730 428732 423732 420731 414727 
      408724 394723 383721 376720 369722 360727 354734 347740 
      343746 338758 336765 335773 331788 327796 324801 314809 
      307814 299818 290820 282819 272815 262809 256809 253814 
      256822 261827 267831 272832 283837 294843 300843 308841 
      323830 334823 339819 345821 347825 348831 347842 347849 
      350855 361862 366866 369866 373865 378860 379852 379842 
      381835 385829 390824 398819 404818 411818 418820 430826 
      433825 434822 434813 433802 430792 427780 428775 430771 
      438757 442750 444745 444736 
 0.25 452964 443951 443946 446937 441931 435927 424919 414910 
      411912 410917 410926 416942 420963 422974 426981 433996 
      436995 441990 445983 447974 452964 
 0.25 376072 375068 372065 369063 368061 367060 364061 361062 
      358064 357065 356068 356072 358073 361073 363072 364071 
      367069 369069 372070 374072 375072 376072 
 0.25 341099 342096 341092 341091 340089 338085 335084 333085 
      333086 332088 332090 333092 333095 335099 338101 341102 
      341099 
 0.50 433747 429741 422739 416737 410732 403729 397728 382725 
      376725 370727 365729 362732 356739 352745 348752 347758 
      350764 345779 339794 334807 333814 336814 343809 352805 
      360803 363807 365812 368818 371821 374821 389810 397808 
      404807 419809 422805 422801 420790 421780 423771 433747 
 0.50 436959 435956 433948 430945 428941 429937 428933 426930 
      423926 419925 417928 418932 420939 423942 424950 425958 
      427963 430966 434964 436959 
 0.50 226060 237065 246071 256078 261081 269084 282087 285084 
      276075 272071 266068 261065 256062 250059 245054 237047 
      232043 227040 
 1.00 418752 415746 409741 404736 399734 385731 379731 373733 
      366738 363744 362747 362752 366762 370767 376772 380778 
      386780 391784 394787 398788 403789 406790 411790 413781 
      414772 415764 418757 418752 
 1.00 267075 266074 264074 263075 264075 266076 267075 
 1.00 226054 229055 231054 232054 233051 231050 230048 229048 
      226046 
 1.50 412752 410749 405743 399739 390737 383736 377736 375738 
      374742 375746 374753 377760 385767 391774 398779 401780 
      404779 407776 409766 412756 412752 
 2.00 408754 406749 403745 398741 391739 385739 381743 380746 
      380754 382757 385759 390764 394770 399773 403770 404767 
      406759 408754 
 3.00 401758 401754 400751 398749 397748 394747 392747 390746 
      390748 389752 389753 390753 392755 394758 395759 397761 
      399761 401759 401758  
 
$$