FXUS04 KWBC 261950
QPFPFD
 
QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
349 PM EDT MON APR 26 2004
 
PRELIM DAY 1 AND DAY 2 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID APR 28/0000 UTC THRU APR 29/0000 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR
 
               
DAY 1....


...ERN U.S...

MDLS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT MASS FIELD-WISE IN THEIR
HANDLING OF THE SYS MOVG THRU THE ERN STATES THIS PD..AND THEY
ARE ALSO IN GOOD AGREEMENT QPF-WISE..XCP FOR FL.    IN FL..THE GFS
IS MUCH WETTER AND SOMEWHAT SLOER THAN THE ETA IS..AND ALTHO
THERE WL BE A POOL OF HIER PWS ALG/PRECEDING THE FNT WHICH SHLD
SUPPORT ORGANIZED CNVCTN..THE GFS APPEARS TO BE SUFFERING FM
GRID SCALE FEEDBACK PROBS..SO AM SUSPICIOUS OF ITS SOLN.  
ALSO..SYS
SHLD BE PROGRESSIVE..LENDING SUPPORT TO THE ETA SOLN.   THUS..AT
LEAST IN FL..WL LEAN TWDS A NOT SO WET ETA QPF IDEA.    FARTHER
N..SLUG OF HIER PWS..UP TO 1.50 INCHES..IN PLACE AHD OF THE
MID/UPR LVL
TROF WL LEAD TO A SWATH OF MDT TO LCLY HVY RNFL/CNVCTN FM THE ERN
CAROLINAS NNEWD INTO CSTL NEW ENG..WITH THE RAINS SUPPORTED
ADDITIONALLY BY DECENT HGT FALLS AND FNTL WVS MOVG ALG THE
SFC BNDRY.   HIEST PWS AND GREATEST INSTABILITY SHLD RESULT
IN THE HVIEST RAINS OCCURRING IN THE ERN CAROLINAS..WHERE SOME 1-2
INCH AMTS ARE LIKELY.   LEANED A LTL MORE TWDS THE GFS QPF SOLN
HERE.


...PAC NW/NRN GT BASIN...

XCP FOR SOME VRY SLGT TIMING/STRENGTH DIFFS..MDLS ARE OTRW IN VRY
GOOD AGREEMENT IN DROPPING THE NRN B.C. SYS INTO THE PAC NW/NRN
GT BASIN LTR TUE.   WITH THE SYS COMING IN FM THE NNW..WON'T BE A
LOT
OF MSTR AVBL..BUT SOME HGT FALLS/MID LVL DYNAMICS AND AN INCREASE
IN LOW LVL ONSHORE FLO SHLD SUPPORT SOME GENLY LGT PCPN
AMTS..ESP OVR THE WA CASCADES.    THE GFS AND ETA QPFS WERE QUITE
SIMILAR HERE..AND WERE GENLY FOLLOWED.



DAY 2...

IN THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND THE NRN HIGH PLAINS...  THE ETA IS A
LITTLE SLOWER THAN THE GFS IN DIGGING A SHORT WAVE FROM CANADA
S SEWD INTO THE REGION.  BUT THE GFS IS DEEPER WITH THE SYSTEM.
THE UKMET AND THE CANADIAN GLOBAL ARE DEEPER AND FARTHER TO
THE WEST WITH THE TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM.  CONSIDERING THE
STRENGTH OF THE UPSTREAM RIDGE... DEEPER IS PROBABLY BETTER. 
THEREFORE WILL GO WITH A TRACK BETWEEN THE ETA AND THE FOREIGN
MODELS... BUT WITH MORE DEPTH THAN THE ETA.  THE RESULTING PCPN
PATTERN IS MORE LIKE THE ETA THAN THE GFS... WITH ADDITIONAL
SPREAD SWD OF LIGHT AMOUNTS INTO UT AND CO.  

IN THE NORTHEAST...  THE UKMET SUPPORTS THE SLIGHTLY SLOWER ETA
RATHER THAN THE FASTER GFS WITH THE SHORT WAVE TROF SWINGING
ACROSS THE AREA.  THEREFORE HAVE GONE ALONG WITH THE ETA PCPN
PATTERN.

IN THE SOUTHWEST...  THE UKMET AND THE CANADIAN SUGGEST THE ETA
IS A LITTLE ON THE WEAK SIDE IN BRINGING A SRN STREAM SHORT WAVE
NORTHEASTWARD INTO TX.  THEREFORE... HAVE GONE ALONG WITH A
GFS/UKMET BLEND... WHICH CARRIES LIGHT PCPN INTO SOUTHWESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE STATE.  

TERRY/LINDNER

GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT WWW.HPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV
 
24HR QP VT 28/00Z
 0.01 453866 458855 463852 474856 483855 486844 487823 488804 
      487789 484770 497767 512760 516748 509718 495706 483689 
      479667 479639 473617 468615 464612 457610 455611 451614 
      432634 418651 378696 337733 309758 286774 265790 254800 
      243816 241825 240834 242844 250853 262862 271864 282861 
      304847 323834 348813 368790 387772 407751 413747 418754 
      414765 410774 406785 399790 390794 384797 378800 374808 
      374816 380819 384824 387830 397829 405825 406826 407831 
      407835 409839 415837 424830 433835 437839 439848 439855 
      442867 443871 445872 448871 453866 
 0.01 541197 536191 533181 531165 529153 524133 520119 515110 
      511105 506102 501101 496104 493108 489117 487121 484124 
      478129 476133 477142 474150 471154 468161 467169 469175 
      486178 491184 491188 490195 489198 486201 483202 480204 
      477203 463210 456215 454219 454223 459229 466229 475226 
      478225 483225 486228 486232 485237 480237 478234 475232 
      473232 473236 474242 481258 490275 496282 498284 499289 
      501299 504303 508303 
 0.01 522012 534034 545040 551021 544971 521918 507896 499893 
      492897 487907 488917 489927 494940 499952 511984 515995 
      522012 
 0.01 322138 321129 319124 317118 315108 309098 307093 307089 
      305077 299068 293059 288051 285043 282029 278016 276013 
      271006 266995 262986 261975 260964 257955 251955 244962 
      240971 237982 237992 237007 238019 241033 244046 248058 
      253066 256075 266093 276109 288122 295129 299133 305135 
      322138 
 0.25 464639 460630 456626 450627 443633 431648 421662 413673 
      402686 386699 374710 343740 335747 311772 300781 289786 
      279789 270795 260802 255810 252817 253825 255834 260843 
      269846 278843 287834 301817 306812 309810 313809 318814 
      325816 331813 335810 346798 366775 374765 385755 400742 
      413730 423721 434708 438701 442692 448684 452678 459669 
      463660 465654 465648 464639 
 0.25 531209 531202 528195 524183 523178 519173 514165 511164 
      508164 502162 493164 491166 491170 495175 498177 502182 
      504187 508193 516200 524207 526210 529212 531209 
 0.25 506244 503235 500228 497218 494212 490210 485209 479210 
      473214 472216 473219 475218 484218 487220 491222 493226 
      497236 500242 502246 504247 506244 
 0.25 297091 296085 295081 292078 289075 286072 280073 280078 
      280081 280084 283086 285090 288093 291094 294094 297091 
 0.25 248015 250022 255026 258023 256006 252995 247997 247009 
      248015 
 0.50 457640 455637 451635 447637 442641 433652 427662 422670 
      415680 408690 400697 392703 382711 374718 365727 353740 
      345748 338758 330771 325780 322789 320797 321800 323803 
      325805 329806 333804 340797 352784 367767 371761 376752 
      380748 386744 392742 397738 412724 420716 427707 433698 
      437689 440683 445678 452668 455662 456656 458650 458644 
      457640 
 0.50 519191 518186 518184 517181 515177 515176 513173 510173 
      508174 507179 508184 509185 511189 511190 514192 517193 
      519191 
 0.50 276833 283828 292819 297812 298807 296804 292801 283798 
      275798 269800 266803 262807 261810 266815 268822 265827 
      264834 267836 272835 276833 
 1.00 343786 350776 357765 368751 374739 374735 367736 359743 
      350753 342765 335780 333786 333791 338790 343786  
 
24HR QP VT 29/00Z
 0.01 518672 512653 508642 505633 486595 479578 477574 473572 
      469568 464569 458578 449589 444594 439601 436606 432609 
      419621 407631 384650 381653 380655 380661 384678 387685 
      391690 393691 397689 403685 409680 415674 422669 429664 
      430665 428672 424686 422693 421699 423705 428710 437711 
      439716 442719 443723 441729 437736 427742 421745 419747 
      419750 421753 424753 429752 434752 433755 435757 439763 
      441764 447752 454740 459734 463733 475732 484734 495736 
      500736 504734 507730 510725 512715 513706 513698 515693 
      519687 519683 518672 
 0.01 564973 563959 563953 561948 557935 557928 555925 553919 
      552914 550908 550900 550890 551884 550878 545851 541837 
      538830 528810 517788 513785 508782 496776 484770 471764 
      468764 464768 459772 452779 449782 450786 453795 457808 
      455829 453836 452844 452854 455868 457878 461886 472899 
      473904 471908 466914 456929 458932 467931 470931 474933 
      474942 469980 468987 465990 461996 452008 446015 440016 
      424017 422014 421008 420995 419971 418967 415972 405984 
      402992 400000 397008 397014 398019 405035 404046 400051 
      387058 377061 369061 362062 358063 357065 365076 373086 
      378093 381096 386097 393098 389104 385109 379113 376115 
      371115 361115 356114 352116 350118 351121 357124 363126 
      371128 374129 377132 387142 390144 392145 395143 398139 
      405133 408131 412132 416134 419138 423140 425138 431135 
      431143 431150 432156 435161 438168 440174 442182 443188 
      446191 449195 453196 457197 462196 467192 472185 477180 
      480181 480184 482190 482196 482200 481203 479206 476207 
      471209 468211 466215 465218 467221 469222 473226 477227 
      482226 490227 495226 501225 503222 503208 504199 506190 
      509184 513195 518196 521196 525197 532201 535200 537196 
      538191 537186 536181 533175 529165 523153 518144 514136 
      513130 513124 516115 523101 525088 525072 524055 524048 
      525039 551021 555009 559996 564973 
 0.01 435763 433760 430758 426760 425765 426769 426778 425783 
      423787 420793 417801 418803 421805 424801 427794 432788 
      434781 435772 435763 
 0.01 391735 385735 381737 375738 369736 366735 367730 368721 
      366711 361700 358698 355697 350703 345711 342718 340727 
      340736 343744 348748 351751 351755 354757 357753 362751 
      369752 375754 378756 381756 384753 388746 391739 391735 
 0.01 294759 292752 289747 284743 280741 274743 269748 263758 
      260761 255765 249774 241791 236801 231810 228820 228824 
      231831 235831 238828 244819 249810 252807 254805 256805 
      260805 267802 270800 272797 275792 277788 277782 279777 
      284773 286770 291766 294759 
 0.01 349065 349062 347059 344058 338055 335055 330054 324055 
      321057 319062 318065 319069 324070 330069 335069 339068 
      344067 349065 
 0.01 344096 344094 343092 343089 342085 341084 340082 338079 
      338078 335076 333078 333079 332082 332085 332088 332090 
      333092 334095 335097 338099 339099 341099 342099 344097 
      344096 
 0.01 333998 332994 328990 324988 319986 308983 298982 292981 
      286982 283986 285994 286998 289003 288006 283004 279007 
      279013 270020 268023 267028 269041 263039 257032 257025 
      259020 262011 265001 265997 264994 262990 259984 256981 
      250982 248986 248989 246991 240992 236994 234999 233003 
      233010 234025 236037 240045 248054 253060 259068 265075 
      273082 280087 285089 292089 302087 307084 310081 312079 
      313074 312065 309062 307057 307052 309046 321029 326022 
      329014 333003 333998 
 0.01 330115 331112 329110 326107 326102 324098 321095 317095 
      315100 315104 313111 312115 311120 313124 317127 319127 
      323125 325121 328118 330115 
 0.25 502649 500641 496633 494631 492633 491640 490645 486652 
      484656 479662 475667 475674 467682 466686 467690 468692 
      471697 475703 478705 482705 488701 492695 499687 505675 
      506669 505662 502649 
 0.25 476590 470576 468575 465576 460582 456586 452593 445602 
      441614 438618 435623 426633 416642 406648 396651 392655 
      390660 392672 395678 398679 404675 409671 418662 427652 
      434646 443634 445631 450627 453625 458620 467612 472608 
      476601 477594 476590 
 0.25 534870 532854 529838 527833 523828 521828 519830 518834 
      515844 513855 511868 511881 506888 503886 500883 494877 
      491874 486871 485871 484878 488892 495916 500922 505923 
      506927 507938 506957 506967 505980 503994 502000 502008 
      507014 508021 507025 504036 502050 506049 511039 514027 
      515020 516016 520005 521992 524962 526952 531951 535950 
      538944 539937 537929 530903 532891 534875 534870 
 0.25 503100 504093 504084 502079 499079 497081 493090 488094 
      486094 485097 485105 484110 483116 480116 481098 472095 
      467097 464100 461102 458102 455098 455089 456075 455066 
      453063 448060 446056 444049 444047 441047 439056 437061 
      435064 427069 424076 424080 429099 419111 413115 423117 
      429117 434116 438115 443117 446124 447131 445135 444141 
      445145 450157 452166 455170 460169 466162 470159 473155 
      476154 480152 489150 494144 497136 497126 500112 503100 
 0.25 485863 485858 484854 482850 481848 480847 478843 476840 
      472837 471837 469836 466837 465840 466844 468848 468852 
      470856 472859 474862 475862 478865 482868 484866 485863 
 0.25 286753 284750 281749 278751 272758 267766 265773 262778 
      260780 255788 263791 266791 269788 271779 271771 280764 
      285757 286753 
 0.25 308072 305066 299062 294059 288056 283056 277058 272061 
      272067 275072 281075 288078 294080 302080 305079 307075 
      308072 
 0.25 245022 245019 246016 245013 243010 242010 240009 237010 
      237013 237016 237019 238022 238024 239025 241026 242025 
      244024 245022 
 0.50 471132 471128 469125 467120 461120 454110 452106 452113 
      452118 455121 457122 460127 462131 462140 460148 462153 
      465150 467145 467136 471132 
 0.50 470592 469587 467584 464583 462586 457591 453596 449602 
      447605 446612 447615 449618 452616 454613 458607 462601 
      467596 470592 
 0.50 498669 497665 495661 493658 491658 489662 485667 482673 
      479677 475684 475689 478696 483696 488693 492686 494681 
      497675 498669 
 0.50 526873 524869 523867 521867 520870 519876 517882 516891 
      513908 512915 512927 511946 511965 510973 511977 514975 
      516970 519963 519952 520944 522936 523925 524917 524904 
      525889 526873 
 0.50 437629 433631 429634 422641 415648 407652 401655 398657 
      394660 393666 395671 397672 401672 405669 412663 419656 
      426649 430644 435636 437629 
 0.50 453097 452093 450090 447091 445092 444093 441096 440100 
      441104 444102 445101 447100 450100 453097 
 0.50 453080 454076 453073 453072 450068 447069 445072 445076 
      447078 449080 450082 453082 453080 
 0.50 303075 304072 302069 301068 299066 297065 296065 294064 
      291063 288063 285063 283065 283066 283068 286071 286072 
      288073 291074 294075 296075 299075 302076 303075 
 1.00 519915 519911 519909 516914 515935 518933 519917 519915  
 
$$