AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                             
 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR                                        
 949 PM CST SUN JAN 14 2007                                                     
 .UPDATE...                                                                     
 EASTERN PART OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAS BEEN DISPLACED WESTWARD               
 AS EVIDENCED BY RISING TEMPERATURES AT BOTH NEWPORT AND                        
 BATESVILLE. LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS NOW PLACES THE BOUNDARY                    
 ROUGHLY ALONG AN KELD TO KLIT TO KRAV LINE. DEW POINTS HAVE ALSO               
 SURGED OVER THIS PART OF THE STATE.                                            
 WEAK SURFACE REFLECTION FORMED ON THE FRONT EARLIER THIS EVENING AND           
 IS NOW LOCATED OVER FAR NORTHERN SHARP COUNTY. LOW TAPPED INTO                 
 THIS MOISTURE AND THE RESULT WAS A RETURN TO HEAVY RAIN OVER THE               
 NORTHEAST PART OF THE FORECAST AREA AND ADDITIONAL FLASH FLOOD                 
 WARNINGS. LOCALLY RUN WRF10KM SHOWS THE POSITION OF THE WARM/MOIST             
 SURGE EXCEPTIONALLY WELL.                                                      
 STILL ONE MORE WAVE TO KICK OUT OF CENTRAL TEXAS THIS EVENING                  
 WHICH SHOULD KEEP THE RAIN GOING OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTH AND                
 WILL LEAVE CURRENT FLOOD WATCH AS IS.                                          
 STILL EXPECTING FRONT TO SLIDE BACK TO THE SOUTH OVERNIGHT AS WEAK             
 SURFACE LOW PULLS TO THE NORTHEAST AND COLDER AIR BEGINS TO SURGE              
 BACK IN. LATEST RUC13 AND LOCALLY RUN WRF10KM BOTH SHOW THIS                   
 PROGRESSION AND EXPECT THE BOUNDARY TO BE BACK OVER THE SOUTH BY               
 MORNING.                                                                       
 FARTHER NORTHWEST...IT WILL BE TURNING COLDER...WITH RAIN CHANGING             
 TO LIGHT FREEZING RAIN. IN GENERAL...ICING AMOUNTS WILL REMAIN                 
 UNDER WARNING CRITERIA...AND WENT WITH A FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY                
 FOR AREAS NORTH OF MENA TO DANVILLE TO CLINTON TO SALEM. BASED ON              
 CURRENT TEMPERATURE TREND AND AVAILABLE MOISTURE WHEN THE COLDER               
 AIR ARRIVES...ANY FREEZING PRECIPITATION WILL BE CONFINED TO JUST              
 A FEW HOURS BEFORE SUNRISE.                                                    
 MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST LOOKS GOOD BUT SOME SERIOUS TWEAKING WAS              
 DONE TO TEMPS...DEW POINTS AND WINDS BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS.                  
 UPDATED PRODUCTS OUT SHORTLY.                                                  
 &&                                                                             
 .PREV DISCUSSION.../ISSUED 543 PM CST SUN JAN 14 2007/                         
 AVIATION...                                                                    
 THE COLD AIR WILL MAKE ITS WAY INTO THE STATE OVERNIGHT AT LAST.               
 THIS WILL BRING A CHANCE TO GET SOME FREEZING RAIN OVER OUR                    
 NORTHWEST SECTIONS DURING THE NIGHT. KHRO STILL HAS AN EAST WIND               
 WITH TEMPS IN THE UPPER 30S...SO ATTEMPTED TO TIME THE EASTWARD                
 MOVEMENT OF THE SURFACE BOUNDARY RUNNING NORTH TO SOUTH OVER                   
 EXTREME WESTERN ARKANSAS. PRECIPITATION WILL BE ENDING FROM                    
 NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST AS MUCH LOWER TEMPS AND DEW POINTS INVADE               
 FROM THE WEST OR NORTHWEST.                                                    
 PREV DISCUSSION.../ISSUED 347 PM CST SUN JAN 14 2007/                          
 SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT                                      
 LATEST STORM WILL START WINDING DOWN TONIGHT/MONDAY...WITH COLDER              
 AIR TO FOLLOW. SYSTEM WILL ARRIVE FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...WITH              
 ONE MORE ROUND OF PRECIPITATION.                                               
 WILL BE WIDESPREAD RAIN THIS EVENING...AND COULD BE HEAVY AT TIMES             
 IN THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE STATE NEAR A STALLED FRONT. KEPT A                
 FLASH FLOOD WATCH GOING OVERNIGHT ACROSS SOUTHERN/EASTERN                      
 ARKANSAS. FARTHER NORTHWEST...WILL TURN COLDER...WITH RAIN                     
 CHANGING TO LIGHT FREEZING RAIN. IN GENERAL...ICING AMOUNTS WILL               
 REMAIN UNDER WARNING CRITERIA...AND WENT WITH A FREEZING RAIN                  
 ADVISORY.                                                                      
 FRONT WILL HEAD TO THE SOUTHEAST ON MONDAY...WITH COLDER AIR                   
 CONTINUING TO SPREAD THROUGH THE REGION. HAVE FALLING TEMPERATURES             
 IN MOST AREAS. PRECIPITATION WILL END PRETTY QUICKLY ACROSS THE                
 NORTH/WEST...WITH RAIN CONTINUING SOUTH/EAST. RAIN SHOULD END BY EVENING       
 AS MOISTURE GETS SHUNTED TO THE SOUTHEAST BY ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE              
 IN THE PLAINS.                                                                 
 SHORT TERM WILL END WILL THE SKY CLEARING...AND COLD/DRY WEATHER               
 MONDAY NIGHT. (46)                                                             
 LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY                                             
 ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE MOVING SOUTH TUESDAY...BRINGING DRY               
 WEATHER AND COOLER TEMPS. THIS FEATURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH            
 THURSDAY. SIGNIFICANT MODEL DIFFERENCES ARE NOTED IN THE LONG TERM             
 FOR THURSDAY NIGHT AND BEYOND. CONTINUED TREND OF PREVIOUS FORECAST            
 WITH MENTION OF PRECIP ACROSS THE SOUTH FOR THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH             
 FRIDAY NIGHT. GFS HAS ANOTHER SYSTEM MOVING IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST              
 SATURDAY WITH ANOTHER POTENTIAL FOR WINTER PRECIP. HAVE HELD OFF ON            
 INTRODUCING PRECIP YET...DUE TO MODEL INCONSISTENCIES...BUT WILL               
 CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR FUTURE FORECASTS. (58)                                 
 &&                                                                             
 .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                               
 LITTLE ROCK   AR  38  40  23  36 /  90  50  10  10                             
 HARRISON AR       26  28  14  29 /  90  10   0   0                             
 HOT SPRINGS AR    35  38  22  35 /  90  50  10  10                             
 PINE BLUFF AR     41  42  26  38 /  90  70  10  10                             
 MOUNTAIN HOME AR  29  31  15  31 /  90  10   0   0                             
 MONTICELLO AR     43  44  29  39 /  90  70  10  10                             
 SEARCY AR         37  39  22  36 /  90  50  10  10                             
 MOUNT IDA AR      33  36  20  34 /  90  30  10  10                             
 RUSSELLVILLE AR   33  36  17  32 /  90  30  10  10                             
 &&                                                                             
 .LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                            
 FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY FOR ARZ003-ARZ004-                    
 ARZ005-ARZ006-ARZ012-ARZ013-ARZ014-ARZ015-ARZ021-ARZ022-ARZ023-                
 ARZ030-ARZ037-ARZ038-ARZ040-ARZ041.                                            
 FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY FOR ARZ016-ARZ024-ARZ025-                  
 ARZ031-ARZ032-ARZ033-ARZ034-ARZ039-ARZ042-ARZ043-ARZ044-ARZ045-                
 ARZ046-ARZ047-ARZ052-ARZ053-ARZ054-ARZ055-ARZ056-ARZ057-ARZ062-                
 ARZ063-ARZ064-ARZ065-ARZ066-ARZ067-ARZ068-ARZ069.                              
 &&                                                                             
 $$                                                                             
 56                                                                             
</pre> ar                                                                       

 AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR AVIATION DISCUSSION                     
 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR                                        
 1123 PM CST SAT JAN 13 2007                                                    
 .AVIATION...                                                                   
 WATER VAPOR IMAGES SHOW THE BACK EDGE OF THE RAIN PRODUCING CLOUDS             
 ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. RADAR ECHOES HAVE DECREASED CONSIDERABLY             
 OVER THE NORTHWEST SECTIONS IN GOOD CORRELATION TO THE WATER VAPOR             
 PICTURES. LOW CLOUDS WILL LINGER BEHIND THE PRECIPITATION..AND                 
 COOLING WILL BRING DOWN CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES. RAIN WILL                   
 CONTINUE PUSHING EAST AS THE SURFACE BOUNDARY SAGS EASTWARD. THE               
 FRONT STRETCHED FROM NEAR MEMPHIS TO NORTHEAST OF TEXARKANA TO THE             
 SHREVEPORT AREA. ELEVATED CONVECTION HAS DECREASED SIGNIFICANTLY...            
 SO WILL LEAVE OUT ALL MENTION OF LIGHTNING AND THUNDER.                        
 &&                                                                             
 .PREV DISCUSSION.../ISSUED 930 PM CST SAT JAN 13 2007/                         
 UPDATE...                                                                      
 WIDESPREAD FLASH FLOODING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING                
 AS MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINS CONTINUE TO FALL. LATEST SURFACE                    
 ANALYSIS PLACES SURFACE BOUNDARY FROM NEAR TEXARKANAA TO SOUTH OF              
 PINE BLUFF TO NEAR HELENA AND HAS MOVED VERY LITTLE OVER THE PAST              
 SEVERAL HOURS. FRONT CONTINUES TO ACT AS LIFTING MECHANISMS AIDED              
 BY SEVERAL WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES KICKING OUT OF THE STRONG             
 WESTERN US TROF.                                                               
 WITH FRONT NOT EXPECTED TO MOVE MUCH TONIGHT... PERIODS OF RAIN                
 WILL CONTINUE AND ADDITIONAL FLASH FLOODING IS LIKELY. LATEST                  
 BUFKIT AND RUC DATA STILL KEEPING TEMPERATURES JUST WARM ENOUGH                
 ACROSS THE NORTHWEST ZONES FOR JUST A COLD RAIN BUT A BRIEF CHANGE             
 OVER TO WINTER PRECIP NEAR SUNRISE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION.                    
 WATER CONTINUES TO CAUSE PROBLEMS ON AREA RIVERS AS WELL AND ARE               
 ADDRESSED IN VARIOUS RIVER PRODUCTS.                                           
 RAIN EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY UNTIL MAIN SYSTEM IN THE              
 ROCKIES IS KICKED OUT AND THE FRONT IS FINALLY FORCED THROUGH THE              
 STATE AND THEN THE COLDER AIR IS FORECAST TO SWEEP THROUGH.                    
 NOT TOO MANY CHANGES NEEDED TO THE GOING FORECAST OTHER THAN TO                
 TWEAK THE GRIDS/ZONES FOR CURRENT TRENDS AND CONDITIONS. UPDATES               
 OUT SHORTLY.                                                                   
 PREV DISCUSSION.../ISSUED 551 PM CST SAT JAN 13 2007/                          
 AVIATION...                                                                    
 SURFACE BOUNDARY IS CROSSING THE STATE FROM NORTHEAST TO                       
 SOUTHWEST. THE NORTHWEST SECTION IS RECEIVING STEADY RAINS WHILE               
 THE SOUTHEAST IS MORE UNSTABLE AND IT IS RECEIVING RAIN WITH                   
 EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS. THE SURFACE PATTERN WILL BE SLOW CHANGING              
 SO KEPT TERMINALS IN A RATHER PESSIMISTIC FORECAST AS FAR AND                  
 CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES GO.                                                  
 PREV DISCUSSION.../ISSUED 457 PM CST SAT JAN 13 2007/                          
 SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT                                     
 HEAVY RAIN AFFECTED NORTHERN/CENTRAL ARKANSAS THIS MORNING/EARLY               
 THIS AFTERNOON...WITH TWO TO THREE INCH AMOUNTS COMMON. RAIN                   
 FOCUSED ALONG AND NORTH OF A STALLED FRONT IN SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF             
 THE STATE.                                                                     
 ANOTHER ROUND OF HEAVY RAIN WILL BREAK OUT TONIGHT...WITH AXIS                 
 FROM DEQUEEN TO CONWAY AND JONESBORO. ANOTHER TWO TO FOUR INCHES               
 OF RAIN COULD OCCUR...WITH FLASH FLOODING LIKELY.                              
 STILL ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN EXPECTED ON SUNDAY AS STORM SYSTEM TO              
 THE WEST ARRIVES. ONE TO TWO INCHES OF RAIN POSSIBLE.                          
 CONTINUED FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY IN NORTHERN/CENTRAL                 
 ARKANSAS...OR IN AREAS NORTH OF ARKADELPHIA...PINE BLUFF AND                   
 BRINKLEY.                                                                      
 EXCESS WATER WILL EVENTUALLY MAKE ITS WAY INTO AREA RIVERS...WITH              
 FLOODING ADDRESSED IN RIVER FORECASTS.                                         
 OTHER ASPECT OF THIS EVENT WILL BE WINTER WEATHER. COULD BE A                  
 BRIEF PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN IN BOONE/NEWTON/NORTHERN MARION                  
 COUNTIES OVERNIGHT AND INTO SUNDAY MORNING AS TEMPERATURES TEETER              
 AROUND 32 DEGREES. ANY ICING WILL NOT AMOUNT TO MUCH...AND HAVE NO             
 HEADLINES IN THESE AREAS.                                                      
 SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY...FRONT WILL MOVE TO THE SOUTH...AND MOISTURE              
 WILL FOLLOW. HOWEVER...SO WILL COLD AIR TO THE NORTHWEST. APPEARS              
 THAT COLD AIR WILL CATCH UP WITH THE MOISTURE...WITH SOME FREEZING             
 RAIN/SLEET MAINLY NORTH AND WEST OF LITTLE ROCK. AMOUNTS LOOK LIKE             
 THEY WILL REMAIN BELOW WARNING CRITERIA...BUT ADVISORIES MAY BE                
 REQUIRED.                                                                      
 MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY...MOISTURE WILL FINALLY EXIT TO THE                       
 SOUTH...WITH DRY AND COLD CONDITIONS TO FINISH THE SHORT TERM. (46)            
 LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY                                         
 DRIER AND COLDER AIRMASS WL BE BLDG INTO THE FA AT THE START OF THE            
 PD THANKS TO ARCTIC HIGH PRES. THE CENTER OF THE HIGH WL SETTLE OVR            
 AR BY MIDWEEK AND THEN BEGIN SHIFTING OFF THE E. TEMPS WL SHOW A               
 GRADUAL MODERATING TREND THRU THE PD. SUBTROPICAL JET WILL BRING               
 MOISTURE ALONG THE GULF COAST...WITH SOME OF THIS MOISTURE                     
 AFFECTING CENTRAL/SOUTHERN ARKANSAS MAINLY THURSDAY THROUGH                    
 SATURDAY. FOR NOW...HAVE SLIGHT CHANCES FOR RAIN IN THESE                      
 AREAS...BUT MAY NEED TO INCREASE POPS IN LATER FORECASTS. (58)                 
 &&                                                                             
 .LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                            
 FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 6 PM SUNDAY FOR ARZ003-ARZ004-ARZ005-                  
 ARZ006-ARZ007-ARZ012-ARZ013-ARZ014-ARZ015-ARZ016-ARZ021-ARZ022-                
 ARZ023-ARZ024-ARZ025-ARZ030-ARZ031-ARZ032-ARZ033-ARZ034-ARZ037-                
 ARZ038-ARZ039-ARZ040-ARZ041-ARZ042-ARZ043-ARZ044-ARZ045-ARZ046-                
 ARZ052-ARZ053-ARZ054.                                                          
 &&                                                                             
 $$                                                                             
 AVIATION...32                                                                  
</pre> ar                                                                       

 AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                             
 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR                                        
 930 PM CST SAT JAN 13 2007                                                     
 .UPDATE...                                                                     
 WIDESPREAD FLASH FLOODING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING                
 AS MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINS CONTINUE TO FALL. LATEST SURFACE                    
 ANALYSIS PLACES SURFACE BOUNDARY FROM NEAR TEXARKANAA TO SOUTH OF              
 PINE BLUFF TO NEAR HELENA AND HAS MOVED VERY LITTLE OVER THE PAST              
 SEVERAL HOURS. FRONT CONTINUES TO ACT AS LIFTING MECHANISMS AIDED              
 BY SEVERAL WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES KICKING OUT OF THE STRONG             
 WESTERN US TROF.                                                               
 WITH FRONT NOT EXPECTED TO MOVE MUCH TONIGHT... PERIODS OF RAIN                
 WILL CONTINUE AND ADDITIONAL FLASH FLOODING IS LIKELY. LATEST                  
 BUFKIT AND RUC DATA STILL KEEPING TEMPERATURES JUST WARM ENOUGH                
 ACROSS THE NORTHWEST ZONES FOR JUST A COLD RAIN BUT A BRIEF CHANGE             
 OVER TO WINTER PRECIP NEAR SUNRISE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION.                    
 WATER CONTINUES TO CAUSE PROBLEMS ON AREA RIVERS AS WELL AND ARE               
 ADDRESSED IN VARIOUS RIVER PRODUCTS.                                           
 RAIN EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY UNTIL MAIN SYSTEM IN THE              
 ROCKIES IS KICKED OUT AND THE FRONT IS FINALLY FORCED THROUGH THE              
 STATE AND THEN THE COLDER AIR IS FORECAST TO SWEEP THROUGH.                    
 NOT TOO MANY CHANGES NEEDED TO THE GOING FORECAST OTHER THAN TO                
 TWEAK THE GRIDS/ZONES FOR CURRENT TRENDS AND CONDITIONS. UPDATES               
 OUT SHORTLY.                                                                   
 &&                                                                             
 .PREV DISCUSSION.../ISSUED 551 PM CST SAT JAN 13 2007/                         
 AVIATION...                                                                    
 SURFACE BOUNDARY IS CROSSING THE STATE FROM NORTHEAST TO                       
 SOUTHWEST. THE NORTHWEST SECTION IS RECEIVING STEADY RAINS WHILE               
 THE SOUTHEAST IS MORE UNSTABLE AND IT IS RECEIVING RAIN WITH                   
 EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS. THE SURFACE PATTERN WILL BE SLOW CHANGING              
 SO KEPT TERMINALS IN A RATHER PESSIMISTIC FORECAST AS FAR AND                  
 CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES GO.                                                  
 PREV DISCUSSION.../ISSUED 457 PM CST SAT JAN 13 2007/                          
 SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT                                     
 HEAVY RAIN AFFECTED NORTHERN/CENTRAL ARKANSAS THIS MORNING/EARLY               
 THIS AFTERNOON...WITH TWO TO THREE INCH AMOUNTS COMMON. RAIN                   
 FOCUSED ALONG AND NORTH OF A STALLED FRONT IN SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF             
 THE STATE.                                                                     
 ANOTHER ROUND OF HEAVY RAIN WILL BREAK OUT TONIGHT...WITH AXIS                 
 FROM DEQUEEN TO CONWAY AND JONESBORO. ANOTHER TWO TO FOUR INCHES               
 OF RAIN COULD OCCUR...WITH FLASH FLOODING LIKELY.                              
 STILL ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN EXPECTED ON SUNDAY AS STORM SYSTEM TO              
 THE WEST ARRIVES. ONE TO TWO INCHES OF RAIN POSSIBLE.                          
 CONTINUED FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY IN NORTHERN/CENTRAL                 
 ARKANSAS...OR IN AREAS NORTH OF ARKADELPHIA...PINE BLUFF AND                   
 BRINKLEY.                                                                      
 EXCESS WATER WILL EVENTUALLY MAKE ITS WAY INTO AREA RIVERS...WITH              
 FLOODING ADDRESSED IN RIVER FORECASTS.                                         
 OTHER ASPECT OF THIS EVENT WILL BE WINTER WEATHER. COULD BE A                  
 BRIEF PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN IN BOONE/NEWTON/NORTHERN MARION                  
 COUNTIES OVERNIGHT AND INTO SUNDAY MORNING AS TEMPERATURES TEETER              
 AROUND 32 DEGREES. ANY ICING WILL NOT AMOUNT TO MUCH...AND HAVE NO             
 HEADLINES IN THESE AREAS.                                                      
 SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY...FRONT WILL MOVE TO THE SOUTH...AND MOISTURE              
 WILL FOLLOW. HOWEVER...SO WILL COLD AIR TO THE NORTHWEST. APPEARS              
 THAT COLD AIR WILL CATCH UP WITH THE MOISTURE...WITH SOME FREEZING             
 RAIN/SLEET MAINLY NORTH AND WEST OF LITTLE ROCK. AMOUNTS LOOK LIKE             
 THEY WILL REMAIN BELOW WARNING CRITERIA...BUT ADVISORIES MAY BE                
 REQUIRED.                                                                      
 MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY...MOISTURE WILL FINALLY EXIT TO THE                       
 SOUTH...WITH DRY AND COLD CONDITIONS TO FINISH THE SHORT TERM. (46)            
 LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY                                         
 DRIER AND COLDER AIRMASS WL BE BLDG INTO THE FA AT THE START OF THE            
 PD THANKS TO ARCTIC HIGH PRES. THE CENTER OF THE HIGH WL SETTLE OVR            
 AR BY MIDWEEK AND THEN BEGIN SHIFTING OFF THE E. TEMPS WL SHOW A               
 GRADUAL MODERATING TREND THRU THE PD. SUBTROPICAL JET WILL BRING               
 MOISTURE ALONG THE GULF COAST...WITH SOME OF THIS MOISTURE                     
 AFFECTING CENTRAL/SOUTHERN ARKANSAS MAINLY THURSDAY THROUGH                    
 SATURDAY. FOR NOW...HAVE SLIGHT CHANCES FOR RAIN IN THESE                      
 AREAS...BUT MAY NEED TO INCREASE POPS IN LATER FORECASTS. (58)                 
 &&                                                                             
 .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                               
 LITTLE ROCK   AR  54  46  59  37 / 100 100 100  90                             
 HARRISON AR       36  33  35  26 / 100 100 100  90                             
 HOT SPRINGS AR    55  45  57  36 / 100 100 100  90                             
 PINE BLUFF AR     67  54  64  40 /  90  90  90  90                             
 MOUNTAIN HOME AR  37  35  37  26 / 100 100 100  90                             
 MONTICELLO AR     70  59  69  44 /  80  80  80  90                             
 SEARCY AR         49  42  57  36 / 100 100 100  90                             
 MOUNT IDA AR      49  43  52  33 / 100 100 100  90                             
 RUSSELLVILLE AR   43  41  46  32 / 100 100 100  90                             
 &&                                                                             
 .LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                            
 FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 6 PM SUNDAY FOR ARZ003-ARZ004-ARZ005-                  
 ARZ006-ARZ007-ARZ012-ARZ013-ARZ014-ARZ015-ARZ016-ARZ021-ARZ022-                
 ARZ023-ARZ024-ARZ025-ARZ030-ARZ031-ARZ032-ARZ033-ARZ034-ARZ037-                
 ARZ038-ARZ039-ARZ040-ARZ041-ARZ042-ARZ043-ARZ044-ARZ045-ARZ046-                
 ARZ052-ARZ053-ARZ054.                                                          
 &&                                                                             
 $$                                                                             
 56                                                                             
</pre> ar                                                                       

 AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                       
 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO                                             
 418 AM MST SUN JAN 14 2007                                                     
 .SHORT TERM...                                                                 
 (TODAY AND TONIGHT)                                                            
 ...SNOW AND COLD TODAY...                                                      
 ...VERY COLD TEMPERATURES/WIND CHILLS TONIGHT...                               
 CURRENTLY...PUB RADAR SHOWING NICE SNOW BANDS FROM LA VETA TO                  
 COLORADO CITY TO PUEBLO TO JUST EAST OF COLORADO SPRINGS TO LIMON.             
 IN THE HIGHER REFLECTIVITY...PROBABLY GETTING 1/2 TO 1 1/2 INCH PER            
 HOUR SNOWFALL RATES WITH SNOW RATIOS OF 20-1 TO 30-1. THERE HAS NOT            
 BEEN MUCH SNOWFALL ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST CO PLAINS...AS MIDLEVEL                
 "DRY" SLOT CONTINUES OVER THAT AREA EARLY THIS MORNING...BUT THAT              
 MAY BE CHANGING AS MIDLEVEL CLOUD DECK HAS COOLING TOPS ACROSS                 
 NORTHEAST NM/PANHANDLES OF OK/TX. CLOSED LOW FINALLY BECAME A                  
 LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE GREAT BASIN AND SLOWLY MOVING EASTWARD PER            
 WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC MODEL UPPER AIR ANALYSES. CLOUDS AND               
 PRECIPITATION ARE JUST EAST OF THE LONGWAVE TROUGH AXIS AND NOT MUCH           
 IN THE WAY OF CLOUD COVER IN THE TROUGH AXIS AND WESTWARD PER IR               
 SATELLITE IMAGERY. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK AND ASSOCIATED               
 SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS DIGGING ACROSS THE WESTERN UNITED STATE...BUT             
 THIS SHOULD REMAIN FURTHER WEST OF THE CENTRAL ROCKIES TODAY AND               
 TONIGHT. EARLY MORNING TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ACROSS           
 OUR EASTERN CO MOUNTAINS AND PLAINS. TEMPERATURES REMAIN IN THE                
 SINGLE DIGITS TO 20S ACROSS THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE AND HIGH MOUNTAIN           
 VALLEYS.                                                                       
 TODAY...LONGWAVE TROUGH IS PROJECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE CENTRAL               
 ROCKIES TODAY...AND THEN SLOWLY EASTWARD TONIGHT. SYNOPTIC SCALE               
 VERTICAL MOTION ANALYSES SHOWED THE BEST IMPLIED ASCENT THIS MORNING           
 AND EARLY AFTERNOON ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWFA AND THEN SHIFTS                    
 NORTHEASTWARD OR WEAKENS BY MIDDLE TO LATE AFTERNOON. TOTAL SNOW               
 ACCUMULATION OF 5 TO 10 INCHES ACROSS PIKES PEAK...SANGRE DE CRISTO            
 AND WET MOUNTAINS...AND 3-7 INCHES ALONG THE I-25 CORRIDOR AND WET             
 MOUNTAIN VALLEY LOOKS ON TARGET. SNOW RATIOS SHOULD REMAIN                     
 RELATIVELY HIGH WITH FLUFFY SNOW BEING PRODUCED. GIVEN THE HIGH SNOW           
 RATIO POTENTIAL THERE COULD BE A FEW SPOTS THAT MEET MARGINAL                  
 WARNING CRITERIA...BUT IT SHOULD NOT BE THAT WIDESPREAD.                       
 THEREFORE...WILL STICK WITH ADVISORY. THE WIND WILL CERTAINLY NOT BE           
 A PROBLEM IN TERMS OF BLOWING SNOW...SO WILL STICK WITH SNOW                   
 ADVISORY. MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL...AGAIN...BE A CHALLENGE. MET              
 MOS IS WAY TOO WARM ALONG I-25 CORRIDOR AND SOUTHEAST CO PLAINS.               
 SHOULD SEE LITTLE DIURNAL TEMPERATURE SWINGS TODAY. THE SAN LUIS               
 VALLEY MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE WILL BE CHALLENGING...BECAUSE IT COULD              
 OCCUR THIS MORNING OR THE AFTERNOON. CURRENTLY...ALAMOSA/S                     
 TEMPERATURE IS IN THE MIDDLE 20S AND THERE COULD BE A FEW DEGREES OF           
 RECOVERY. TWEAKED THE SAN LUIS VALLEY MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE UP A                 
 LITTLE TODAY.                                                                  
 TONIGHT...WEAKENING LONGWAVE TROUGH FLATTENS OUT OVER THE CENTRAL              
 ROCKIES. CLOUD COVER COULD BE A LITTLE TRICKY. WITH THE LOSE OF                
 SYNOPTIC SCALE ASCENT...MIDLEVEL CLOUDS SHOULD BREAKUP. ALSO...LOW             
 LEVEL CLOUDS MAY TEND TO BREAK UP. WILL PLAY A CLEARING SKY DURING             
 THE NIGHT. GIVEN THE COLD TEMPERATURES ALREADY IN PLACE...RELATIVELY           
 LIGHT WINDS...AND POSSIBLY A CLEARING SKY...TEMPERATURES MAY TANK              
 TONIGHT/EARLY MON MORNING. MOS HAS 14 TO 21 BELOW ZERO FOR                     
 LEADVILLE...WHICH IS CERTAINLY DOABLE. MUCH OF SOUTHERN CO COULD BE            
 BELOW ZERO LATE TONIGHT/EARLY MON MORNING. WITH SUCH COLD                      
 TEMPERATURES...WIND CHILL READINGS MAY RANGE FROM 15 BELOW TO 30               
 BELOW ZERO IN THE MOUNTAINS AND ZERO TO 15 BELOW ZERO FOR THE VALLEYS.         
 DEPENDING ON THE WIND SPEED...A FEW AREAS MIGHT REACH WIND CHILL               
 ADVISORY ACROSS THE NON-MOUNTAIN ZONES. LEADVILLE COULD REACH WIND             
 CHILL WARNING LATE TONIGHT/EARLY MON MORNING. WILL HOLD OFF ISSUING            
 ANY WIND CHILL HEADLINES...BUT WILL ADDRESS IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER           
 OUTLOOK AND IT WILL BE IN THE ZFP. METZE                                       
 .LONG TERM...                                                                  
 (MONDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)                                                        
 FCST CHALLENGES WILL BE PERSISTENCE OF COLD TEMPS EARLY IN THE                 
 WEEK...THEN TRACK AND TIMING OF NEXT UPPER TROF FOR THE THURS/FRI              
 TIME FRAME.                                                                    
 UPPER TROF SLOWING DEPARTS TO THE SOUTH AND EAST ON MONDAY WITH                
 DRY CONDITIONS RETURNING TO THE FCST AREA.  THIS ALLOWS 1040 MB SFC            
 HIGH TO DESCEND THROUGH THE SE PLAINS WHICH SHOULD KEEP VERY COLD              
 TEMPS ACROSS THE AREA ON MONDAY.  SHOULD BE MORE SUNSHINE THIS                 
 DAY...HOWEVER WITH ARCTIC AIR MASS STILL IN PLACE...THINK GUIDANCE             
 TEMPS ARE STILL WAY TOO WARM AND HAVE COOLED THEM OFF A COUPLE MORE            
 DEGREES.  OF COURSE WITH CLEARING SKIES AND VERY COLD DRY AIR MASS OVER        
 THE REGION...MON NIGHT SHAPING UP TO BE THE COLDEST NIGHT OF THE               
 WEEK.  MIN TEMPS WILL LIKELY BE IN THE -10 TO -25 DEGREE RANGE                 
 ACROSS THE MTS/HIGH VALLEYS...WITH NEGATIVE SINGLE DIGITS ACROSS THE           
 SOUTHEAST PLAINS.   ARCTIC AIR MASS STARTS TO SHALLOW OUT ON TUESDAY           
 AS THE SFC HIGH PUSHES EASTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS.  SHOULD SEE           
 SOME MINOR RECOVERY IN TEMPS ACROSS THE EASTERN SLOPES AS COLD AIR             
 RECEDES...HOWEVER...GUIDANCE STILL LOOKS TO WARM...ESP ACROSS THE              
 SE PLAINS CONSIDERING FRESH SNOW COVER AND WINDS WILL BE FAIRLY                
 LIGHT. IN FACT...SAN LUIS VALLEY WILL PROBABLY ONLY MAX OUT IN THE             
 TEENS...CONSIDERABLY COLDER THAN OPTIMISTIC MOS GUIDANCE OF THE                
 MID 20S.                                                                       
 SWRN PORTION OF THE UPPER TROF WHICH CUTS OFF ACROSS AZ MON                    
 NIGHT/TUES LIFTS OUT ACROSS CO ON WED AS NEXT SYSTEM DIVES SOUTHWARD           
 THROUGH THE WRN US.  DOESN`T APPEAR TO BE MUCH MOISTURE WITH THIS              
 SYSTEM ON WED...BUT ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SOME ISOLATED POPS ACROSS THE            
 WRN MTS.  MAIN AFFECT WILL BE TO INCREASE WINDS ACROSS THE AREA AS             
 THE TROF MOVES ACROSS...WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN A BETTER WARM                   
 UP...AND FIRST DAY TO BRING SOME MINOR MELTING.  BUMPED UP MAX TEMPS           
 A FEW DEGREES IN AREAS MOST LIKELY TO REALIZE THE GUSTY WINDS.                 
 GFS BRINGS THE NEXT TROF ACROSS CO THURS/FRI...WHICH SHOULD BRING              
 ANOTHER REINFORCING COLD SURGE THROUGH CO ALONG WITH AN UPSWING IN             
 PRECIPITATION. FOR NOW LOOKS LIKE A LIGHT SNOWFALL EVENT FOR                   
 SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST CO...WITH EASTERN SAN JUANS SEEING                 
 BEST POTENTIAL FOR MODERATE ACCUMULATIONS DUE TO SOUTHWEST UPSLOPE             
 FLOW. HOWEVER...00Z ECMWF IS CONSIDERABLY DIFFERENT WITH ITS                   
 SOLUTION WHICH KEEPS THE UPPER LOW OFF THE WEST COAST THROUGH THE              
 END OF THE WEEK BEFORE BRINGING IT INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST BY                
 SUN. A FEW GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS SUPPORT THIS FARTHER SOUTH AND                 
 WEST CUT OFF SOLUTION...BUT THE MAJORITY ADVERTISE A MORE                      
 PROGRESSIVE TROF. GIVEN UNCERTAINTIES...WILL NOT MAKE ANY MAJOR                
 CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED GRIDS. -KT                                             
 &&                                                                             
 .PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                            
 SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM MST THIS AFTERNOON FOR COZ072>088.                    
 &&                                                                             
 $$                                                                             
 17/31                                                                          
</pre> co                                                                       

 AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                       
 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID                                              
 940 PM MST SAT JAN 13 2007                                                     
 .DISCUSSION...STRONG VORT MAX MOVING RAPIDLY SOUTH FROM NORTHEAST              
 OREGON AT THIS TIME.  LATEST RUC TAKES THIS FEATURE SOUTHWARD ACROSS           
 EASTERN OREGON AND EXTREME SOUTHWEST IDAHO DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS           
 WITH BROKEN TO OVERCAST MID DECK. SYSTEM HAS LIMITED MOISTURE BUT              
 HAS BEEN SQUEEZING OUT A FEW FLURRIES OVER AREAS IN EASTERN                    
 WASHINGTON AND NORTHEAST OREGON. LATEST RADAR LOOPS SHOWING BANDS OF           
 CLOUDS MOVING OVER THE AREA AND SUSPECT THERE COULD BE SOME LIGHT              
 SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY AS WELL. OTHERWISE...TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN               
 STEADY DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS WITH THICKER CLOUD COVER OVER THE             
 AREA.  THIS COULD BE DECEIVING HOWEVER AS RAPID CLEARING IS                    
 DEVELOPING NORTH OF VORT FEATURE AND TEMPS MAY PLUMMET AGAIN AROUND            
 DAYBREAK SUNDAY IN THE WAKE OF THIS WEAK SYSTEM. WILL STAY THE                 
 COURSE ON OVERNIGHT MINS EVEN THOUGH TEMPS ARE NOT FALLING MUCH AT             
 THE MOMENT. REST OF FORECAST REMAINS UNCHANGED.                                
 &&                                                                             
 .PREV DISCUSSION...CLOUDS COMING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL MODERATE           
 MIN TEMPERATURES TONIGHT BUT MOST IDAHO MOUNTAIN SITES WILL STILL              
 DROP TO ZERO TO 10 BELOW.  FAIRFIELD WILL START FROM A HIGH TODAY              
 NEAR ZERO AND WILL ALSO STAY CLEAR LONGER THIS EVENING SO MIN TEMP             
 OF 18 BELOW HAS BEEN FORECAST THERE.  VALLEY SITES WILL BE 2-4                 
 DEGREES MILDER THAN LAST NIGHT.  SHORT WAVE TROUGH FROM THE                    
 NORTHWEST WILL BRING 20-30 POP TO OUR NORTHERN AND EASTERN MOUNTAIN            
 ZONES LATE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING...EXITING SOUTH VIA SOUTHERN             
 SAWTOOTHS SUNDAY.  CLEARING AFTER THAT AND A REINFORCEMENT OF COLD             
 AIR BUT NOT AS COLD AS TODAY/S AIR MASS AS SOURCE REGION IS NOT AS             
 FAR NORTH.  MOSTLY CLEAR AND CONTINUED COLD MONDAY...SLIGHT MILDER             
 IN OREGON ZONES.  LIGHT WINDS THROUGH MONDAY.                                  
 LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...MODELS IN AGREEMENT THAT           
 UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL MOVE TO THE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA BY                
 WEDNESDAY MORNING.  WHERE THE MODELS DIFFER IS IN THE STRENGTH AND             
 TIMING OF THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT WILL BE MOVING INTO THE             
 PACIFIC NORTHWEST.  MODELS STILL HINTING AT THIS TROUGH SPLITTING              
 AND THAT WOULD MEAN DRIER CONDITIONS FOR THE FORECAST AREA FOR                 
 TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.  WILL LEAN TOWARDS THE SPLIT FOR MAINLY              
 DRY CONDITIONS FOR MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY.  FOR FRIDAY AND              
 SATURDAY NO REAL RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY WITH THE PATTERN SO WILL               
 KEEP POPS AS IS.  TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BE A           
 FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL AND SLOWLY WARM TO NORMAL BY SATURDAY.                
 &&                                                                             
 AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS MOST AREAS FOR THE REST OF TONIGHT UNDER             
 MID-LEVEL CEILINGS. ISOLATED IFR VISIBILITIES IN SNOW SHOWERS OVER             
 WEST CENTRAL AND BOISE MOUNTAINS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING AND                
 DEVELOPING OVER HIGHER TERRAIN ALONG ID/NV BORDER AFTER 12Z SUNDAY             
 MORNING. MID-LEVEL CEILINGS WILL REMAIN BETWEEN 10-12K FEET MSL.               
 CEILINGS WILL BREAK OUT LATE SUNDAY MORNING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. DUE           
 TO CLOUDS...NOT EXPECTING ANY FOG DEVELOPMENT IN VALLEYS. LIGHT                
 NORTHERLY WINDS ALOFT THROUGH 20K MSL.                                         
 &&                                                                             
 .BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                            
 ID...NONE.                                                                     
 OR...NONE.                                                                     
 &&                                                                             
 $$                                                                             
 DISCUSSION...GS                                                                
 PREV DISCUSSION...LC                                                           
 LONG TERM....JA/DD                                                             
 AVIATION.....DG                                                                
</pre> id                                                                       

 AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                       
 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL                                            
 907 PM CST SUN JAN 14 2007                                                     
 .UPDATE...                                                                     
 MAIN CONCERNS ARE PRECIP TYPE AND AMOUNTS OF ICE OR SNOW ACCUM THE             
 REST OF THE NIGHT AND TOMORROW MORNING. THE BACK EDGE OF THE MAIN              
 AREA RAIN AND FREEZING RAIN SEEMS TO BE APPROACHING OUR SW CWA                 
 SOON. IR SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW BANDED WAVES HELPING TO GENERATE ENHANCE        
 PRECIP ACROSS EASTERN MISSOURI AND WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS ATTM.                 
 THIS PUSH IS MATCHING UP WELL WITH THE BACK EDGE OF THE MAIN AREA              
 OF RAIN. FEEL THERE WILL BE A BIG DROP OFF IN MEASURABLE RAIN AND              
 FREEZING RAIN AFTER MIDNIGHT IN MUCH OF CENTRAL ILLINOIS. THERE                
 DOES APPEAR TO BE ADDITIONAL MOISTURE AND COLD CLOUD TOPS BEHIND               
 THIS RAIN BAND. THE INVERTED TROUGH HAS YET TO ENTER INTO ILLINOIS             
 AS WELL...SO LIGHT RAIN...FREEZING RAIN...OR SNOW SHOULD CONTINUE              
 INTO MONDAY MORNING...BUT AT MUCH SLOWER RATES THAN THIS EVENING.              
 WORKING ON UPDATING THE GRIDS FOR PLACEMENT OF THE MOST FREEZING               
 RAIN AND SNOW. FREEZING LINE SEEMED TO BE PERSISTING MUCH FARTHER              
 NORTHWEST THAN PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED. I SEE THE BLOOMINGTON HAS JUST             
 NOW FINALLY REPORTED FREEZING RAIN...BUT LINCOLN REMAINS 34 AND                
 SPRINGFIELD IS 35. THAT CORRIDOR OF CENTRAL ILLINOIS IS A TOUGH                
 CALL ON WHEN THEY WILL GO BELOW FREEZING. RUC METEOGRAMS ARE                   
 KEEPING SPI ABOVE FREEZING THROUGH AT LEAST 12Z...SO I AM HAVING               
 TROUBLE FORECASTING ICE ACCUM THERE. WILL GO ON PREMISE THAT                   
 ELEVATED TREE LIMBS AND POWER LINES WILL SEE FREEZING AND ICE                  
 ACCUM...AND THAT IS WHERE THE PUBLIC IMPACT WILL BE GREATEST...IF              
 THE BRANCHES BREAK AND POWER LINES COME DOWN.                                  
 IN KNOX...STARK AND NORTHERN FULTON COUNTIES...TEMPS HAVE REMAINED             
 BELOW FREEZING DURING THE RAIN THIS EVENING...AS ICE ACCUMS ON                 
 TREES AND POWERLINES ARE NEARING A QUARTER INCH. NORTHWEST WINDS               
 HAVE SUBSIDED TO LESS THAN 10 MPH IN MOST AREAS...BUT STILL SOME               
 SWAYING OF THE TREES MAY CAUSE BRANCHES TO SNAP. SNOW AMOUNTS IN               
 THAT AREA SHOULD NOT CLIMB MUCH OVER AN INCH...AS THE BULK OF THE              
 PRECIPITATION WILL BE OVER BEFORE THE SNOW STARTS ACCUMULATING.                
 WILL KEEP THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY GOING AS IS...WITH THE                   
 FREEZING RAIN THROUGH MIDNIGHT...THEN THE FREEZING DRIZZLE OR SNOW             
 THE REST OF THE NIGHT...ESPECIALLY NORTHWEST OF THE ILLINOIS                   
 RIVER...AND LESS ICE AND SNOW BETWEEN THE ILLINOIS RIVER AND THE               
 I-55 CORRIDOR. EAST OF I-55 WILL NOT SEE MUCH FREEZING RAIN                    
 THROUGH MIDNIGHT. PRECIP IN THAT AREA WILL CHANGE TO DRIZZLE OR                
 SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS AFTER MIDNIGHT UNTIL MORNING...THEN MIX                 
 WITH OR CHANGE TO SNOW DURING THE MORNING.                                     
 UPDATED ZONES WILL BE OUT SHORTLY...WITH MAIN CHANGES TO THE                   
 PRECIP WORDING AND SNOW AMOUNTS /LESS SNOW/.                                   
 &&                                                                             
 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 330 PM CST SUN JAN 14 2007/                        
 DISCUSSION...                                                                  
 WINTER WEATHER SYSTEM IS MAIN CONCERN...WITH PCPN TYPE OVERNIGHT AS            
 THE SYSTEM CONTINUES AS PLANNED JUST WITH LITTLE WARMER SURFACE                
 TEMPS THAN ORIGINALLY THOUGHT. HOWEVER SFC TEMPS ARE STILL 1-2 DEGS            
 BELOW NAM AND GFS MODEL. SO...ACTUALLY APPEARS THAT SFC TEMPS VERIFY           
 BEST WITH EITHER NGM OR THE RUC MODELS. THEREFORE WILL FOLLOW THOSE            
 IN THE VERY SHORT TERM AND THEN ADJUST NAM/GFS FURTHER OUT.                    
 SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...                                      
 SFC LOW SITTING IN WESTERN ARK AT 20Z AND IS SHOWING SIGNS OF                  
 DEEPENING AS SFC HEIGHT FALLS OF 4 TO 5 MB IS SEEN IN THE SFC DATA             
 TO THE NORTH ACRS SOUTHERN MO AND INTO NERN KS. A SFC TROUGH IS ALSO           
 EVIDENT IN THE SFC DATA FROM SOUTHERN IL INTO EASTERN IA.                      
 THEREFORE...NEUTRAL TEMP ADVECTION CAN BE EXPECTED INTO THE EARLY              
 EVENING HOURS. THIS MEANS THAT MOST OF PCPN MOVING INTO AREA WILL              
 START AS RAIN AND THEN CHANGE TO FREEZING RAIN...FROM WEST TO                  
 EAST...AS THE NIGHT PROGRESSES. BELIEVE AREAS ALONG AND NORTHWEST OF           
 IL RIVER WILL QUICKLY CHANGE TO FREEZING RAIN THIS EVENING AND THEN            
 MIX WITH SLEET BEFORE CHANGING TO SNOW BY MIDNIGHT. AREAS ALONG I-55           
 WILL START AS RAIN AND THEN CHANGE TO FREEZING RAIN BEFORE MIDNIGHT            
 AND THEN MIX WITH SOME SLEET AND SNOW AFTER MIDNIGHT. AREAS TO THE             
 EAST WILL SEE ALL RAIN UNTIL MIDNIGHT AND THEN CHANGE TO A MIX OF              
 FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET AFTER MIDNIGHT BEFORE CHANGING TO SNOW IN              
 THE MORNING. WITH THE LINE OF FREEZING RAIN/SLEET BETWEEN RAIN STILL           
 BEING ALONG A BLOOMINGTON TO DECATUR TO TAYLORVILLE LINE...WILL                
 LEAVE THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY AS IS...BUT JUST CHANGE THE ENDING           
 TIME TO NOON TOMORROW. WITH SYSTEM LIFTING NORTHEAST TONIGHT AND               
 LITTLE FURTHER NORTH THAN ORIGINALLY THOUGHT...SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WILL           
 BE ON THE ADVISORY SIDE OR LESS IN MOST AREA. TOTAL SNOWFALL WILL BE           
 AN INCH OR LESS ALONG I-72 CORRIDOR WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS FURTHER                
 NORTH...REACHING TO JUST UNDER 4 INCHES IN THE FAR NORTH OF THE CWA.           
 PIA AROUND 2 INCHES AND BLOOMINGTON AROUND 1.5 INCHES.                         
 PCPN WILL END DURING THE DAY TOMORROW WITH LITTLE IF ANY ADDITIONAL            
 ACCUMULATION OF EITHER SNOW OR ICE. STILL AREAS IN THE SOUTHEAST               
 COULD STILL BE WARM ENOUGH THAT THE PCPN COULD BE A MIX OF RAIN AND            
 SNOW.                                                                          
 AFTER THIS SYSTEM MOVES OUT...COLDER AIR WILL ADVECT INTO THE                  
 AREA...WITH THE COLDEST TEMPS IN THE NORTH WITH THE SNOW COVER.                
 COLDEST TEMPS EXPECTED TO BE TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT AS CENTER OF            
 THE HIGH SETTLES OVER THE AREA...CLOUDS DISAPPEAR AND WINDS BECOME             
 LIGHT. THEN WEDNESDAY...TEMPS WILL SLOWLY CLIMB BACK TO NEAR NORMAL.           
 LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...                                         
 MODIFY ZONAL PATTERN WILL BECOME THE RULE DURING THE EXTENDED WITH             
 SEVERAL MINOR WAVES FORECAST TO MOVE ACRS THE AREA. WITH LITTLE                
 MOISTURE TO WORK WITH AND STILL SOME UNCERTAINTIES ON STRENGTH AND             
 TIMING OF WAVES...WILL KEEP EXTENDED DRY.                                      
 TEMPS THROUGH THE EXTENDED WILL REMAIN CLOSE TO NORMAL WITH A SLIGHT           
 WARMING TREND NEXT WEEKEND.                                                    
 &&                                                                             
 .ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                            
 WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 12 PM CST MONDAY FOR ILZ027>031-                 
 036>038-040>043-047>053.                                                       
 &&                                                                             
 $$                                                                             
 SHIMON/AUTEN                                                                   
</pre> il                                                                       

 AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                       
 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL                                            
 330 PM CST SUN JAN 14 2007                                                     
 .DISCUSSION...                                                                 
 WINTER WEATHER SYSTEM IS MAIN CONCERN...WITH PCPN TYPE OVERNIGHT AS            
 THE SYSTEM CONTINUES AS PLANNED JUST WITH LITTLE WARMER SURFACE                
 TEMPS THAN ORIGINALLY THOUGHT. HOWEVER SFC TEMPS ARE STILL 1-2 DEGS            
 BELOW NAM AND GFS MODEL. SO...ACTUALLY APPEARS THAT SFC TEMPS VERIFY           
 BEST WITH EITHER NGM OR THE RUC MODELS. THEREFORE WILL FOLLOW THOSE            
 IN THE VERY SHORT TERM AND THEN ADJUST NAM/GFS FURTHER OUT.                    
 SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...                                      
 SFC LOW SITTING IN WESTERN ARK AT 20Z AND IS SHOWING SIGNS OF                  
 DEEPENING AS SFC HEIGHT FALLS OF 4 TO 5 MB IS SEEN IN THE SFC DATA             
 TO THE NORTH ACRS SOUTHERN MO AND INTO NERN KS. A SFC TROUGH IS ALSO           
 EVIDENT IN THE SFC DATA FROM SOUTHERN IL INTO EASTERN IA.                      
 THEREFORE...NEUTRAL TEMP ADVECTION CAN BE EXPECTED INTO THE EARLY              
 EVENING HOURS. THIS MEANS THAT MOST OF PCPN MOVING INTO AREA WILL              
 START AS RAIN AND THEN CHANGE TO FREEZING RAIN...FROM WEST TO                  
 EAST...AS THE NIGHT PROGRESSES. BELIEVE AREAS ALONG AND NORTHWEST OF           
 IL RIVER WILL QUICKLY CHANGE TO FREEZING RAIN THIS EVENING AND THEN            
 MIX WITH SLEET BEFORE CHANGING TO SNOW BY MIDNIGHT. AREAS ALONG I-55           
 WILL START AS RAIN AND THEN CHANGE TO FREEZING RAIN BEFORE MIDNIGHT            
 AND THEN MIX WITH SOME SLEET AND SNOW AFTER MIDNIGHT. AREAS TO THE             
 EAST WILL SEE ALL RAIN UNTIL MIDNIGHT AND THEN CHANGE TO A MIX OF              
 FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET AFTER MIDNIGHT BEFORE CHANGING TO SNOW IN              
 THE MORNING. WITH THE LINE OF FREEZING RAIN/SLEET BETWEEN RAIN STILL           
 BEING ALONG A BLOOMINGTON TO DECATUR TO TAYLORVILLE LINE...WILL                
 LEAVE THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY AS IS...BUT JUST CHANGE THE ENDING           
 TIME TO NOON TOMORROW. WITH SYSTEM LIFTING NORTHEAST TONIGHT AND               
 LITTLE FURTHER NORTH THAN ORIGINALLY THOUGHT...SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WILL           
 BE ON THE ADVISORY SIDE OR LESS IN MOST AREA. TOTAL SNOWFALL WILL BE           
 AN INCH OR LESS ALONG I-72 CORRIDOR WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS FURTHER                
 NORTH...REACHING TO JUST UNDER 4 INCHES IN THE FAR NORTH OF THE CWA.           
 PIA AROUND 2 INCHES AND BLOOMINGTON AROUND 1.5 INCHES.                         
 PCPN WILL END DURING THE DAY TOMORROW WITH LITTLE IF ANY ADDITIONAL            
 ACCUMULATION OF EITHER SNOW OR ICE. STILL AREAS IN THE SOUTHEAST               
 COULD STILL BE WARM ENOUGH THAT THE PCPN COULD BE A MIX OF RAIN AND            
 SNOW.                                                                          
 AFTER THIS SYSTEM MOVES OUT...COLDER AIR WILL ADVECT INTO THE                  
 AREA...WITH THE COLDEST TEMPS IN THE NORTH WITH THE SNOW COVER.                
 COLDEST TEMPS EXPECTED TO BE TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT AS CENTER OF            
 THE HIGH SETTLES OVER THE AREA...CLOUDS DISAPPEAR AND WINDS BECOME             
 LIGHT. THEN WEDNESDAY...TEMPS WILL SLOWLY CLIMB BACK TO NEAR NORMAL.           
 LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...                                         
 MODIFY ZONAL PATTERN WILL BECOME THE RULE DURING THE EXTENDED WITH             
 SEVERAL MINOR WAVES FORECAST TO MOVE ACRS THE AREA. WITH LITTLE                
 MOISTURE TO WORK WITH AND STILL SOME UNCERTAINTIES ON STRENGTH AND             
 TIMING OF WAVES...WILL KEEP EXTENDED DRY.                                      
 TEMPS THROUGH THE EXTENDED WILL REMAIN CLOSE TO NORMAL WITH A SLIGHT           
 WARMING TREND NEXT WEEKEND.                                                    
 &&                                                                             
 .ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                            
 WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON MONDAY FOR                                  
 ILZ027>031-036>038-040>043-047>053.                                            
 &&                                                                             
 $$                                                                             
 AUTEN                                                                          
</pre> il                                                                       

 AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                       
 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA                                      
 1059 PM EST SUN JAN 14 2007                                                    
 .UPDATE...                                                                     
 GETTING 1/8" GLAZING REPORTS ON TREES JUST NORTH OF SOUTH BEND LATE            
 THIS EVE. BASED ON SFC OBS EXPECT SIMILAR CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT THE            
 ADVISORY AREA WITH THE PSBL EXCEPTION OF URBAN AREAS OF SOUTH                  
 BEND/ELKHART DECIDED TO UPGRADE FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY TO AN ICE               
 STORM WARNING. ALSO GETTING SCT REPORTS OF ICING FARTHER SOUTH AND             
 WITH DFI TEMP AT 32 LAST SEVERAL HOURS AND FWA TEMP/DWPT FALLING               
 SLOWLY, WILL ISSUE FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY AREA SOUTH OF ICE STORM              
 WARNING A COUPLE TIERS OF COUNTIES. EXPECT ICING IN THIS AREA WILL             
 MAINLY BE ON ELEVATED SURFACES, BUT STILL COULD BE SUFFICIENT TO               
 CAUSE SOME PROBLEMS.                                                           
 &&                                                                             
 .UPDATE...                                                                     
 EVE RAOB/TAMDAR SOUNDINGS SHOWING WARM LAYER OF GENERALLY +2 TO +6C            
 OVER OUR AREA RESULTING IN INITIAL PRECIP REACHING THE GROUND AS               
 RN/ZR. SFC OBS AND CALLS TO POLICE IN THE AREA INDICATE SO FAR ONLY            
 PATCHY REPORTS OF GLAZING IN NRN INDIANA AND NW OH EVEN THOUGH SOME            
 ASOS/AWOS SITES REPORTING TEMPS AT FREEZING. THIS PRBLY A RESULT OF            
 TEMPERATURE OF HEAVY RAINFALL GENERALLY REACHING THE GROUND ABOVE              
 FREEZING. IN MICHIGAN WHERE SFC TEMPS HAVE BEEN RUNNING A DEGREE OR            
 TWO BELOW FREEZING ALL DAY AND THIS EVE, MORE WIDESPREAD GLAZING IS            
 BEING REPORTED. WITH WAA OVERNIGHT AS SFC LOW MOVES NE FROM SRN MO             
 TO WEST CENTRAL OH, THE RN/SN LINE, WHICH IS EXPECTED TO SETUP FROM            
 JUST NORTH OF CHICAGO TO JUST NORTH OF DETROIT THIS EVE, WILL PRBLY            
 SHIFT SLIGHTLY NORTH. THUS, AS IN GOING FCST STILL EXPECTING A                 
 MAINLY LIQUID EVENT WITH MAIN THREAT FOR ICE ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS              
 OUR NRN COUNTIES. MAIN QUESTIONS ARE HOW MUCH OF THE HEAVY RAIN WILL           
 ACCUMULATE AS ICE IN THE ADVISORY AREAS AND IF SFC TEMPS WILL FALL             
 SUFFICIENTLY SOUTH OF THE ADVISORY AREA TO WARRANT EXPANSION. FOR              
 NOW FEEL THINGS ARE ON TRACK AND WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR BUT NO               
 CHANGES TO HEADLINES OR FCSTS PLANNED THIS EVE.                                
 &&                                                                             
 .AVIATION...                                                                   
 ONLY MINOR CHANGES TO PREVIOUS TAFS. AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DVLPG OVER           
 SWRN MO THIS EVE WAS CAUSING OVER-RUNNING PRECIP TO DVLP NORTH OF              
 STNRY FRONT ALONG OH RVR. THIS SHOULD SPREAD INTO NRN INDIANA OVER             
 THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS WITH HEAVIEST RAINFALL INITIALLY MOVG INTO            
 THE FWA AREA. CIGS/VSBYS WERE ALREADY LOWERING IN ADVANCE OF THE               
 RAINFALL THIS EVE APPARENTLY IN RESPONSE TO DIURNAL COOLING OF THE             
 VERY MOIST LOW LEVELS. TEMPS EXPECTED TO REMAIN JUST COLD ENOUGH FOR           
 FREEZING RAIN AT SBN AND JUST WARM ENOUGH FOR RAIN NOT TO FREEZE AT            
 FWA AS THE LOW MOVES NE ACROSS SRN INDIANA TONIGHT. PRECIP INTENSITY           
 SHOULD DIMINISH ON MONDAY AS MID LEVEL DRY SLOT MOVES OVER THE AREA.           
 WITH COLD AIR WRAPPING AROUND THE LOW AS IT DEPARTS THE AREA TO OUR            
 EAST ON MONDAY, PRECIP SHOULD CHANGE OVER TO SNOW AT SBN EARLY IN              
 THE AFTN. POTENTIAL FOR LAKE ENHANCEMENT TO INTENSIFY SNOWFALL LATE            
 AFTN BUT SINCE NEAR END OF TAF PD DID NOT ADD TO TAFS YET. LIKEWISE            
 AT FWA COLDER AIR FILLING IN BEHIND THE LOW COULD CHANGE PRECIP TO             
 -ZL OR -SN LATE IN THE AFTN BUT HELD OFF MENTIONING THIS CHANGE IN             
 THE TAF FOR NOW.                                                               
 &&                                                                             
 .SHORT TERM...                                                                 
 TONIGHT AND MONDAY.                                                            
 ...SIGNIFICANT ICING EXPECTED ACROSS SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN TONIGHT           
 INTO MONDAY MORNING...                                                         
 ...SOME ICING EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHERN INDIANA AND NORTHWEST OHIO              
 TONIGHT AND MONDAY...                                                          
 12Z NAM-WRF AND 12Z GFS CONTINUE TO TREND NEXT WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE            
 FARTHER NORTHWEST.  THE NAM-WRF IS THE FARTHEST NORTHWEST OF THE               
 TWO...PLACING THE WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE OVER NW OHIO BY 12Z MONDAY.             
 BASED ON THE TREND OF BRINGING THE LOW FARTHER NORTHWEST...FEEL MORE           
 INCLINED TO SIDE WITH THE NAM-WRF AND THUS WILL USE ITS SOLUTION AS            
 A BACKBONE TO THE SHORT TERM FORECAST.  ITS WARMER THERMAL PROFILE             
 WILL RESULT IN MOSTLY FREEZING RAIN TONIGHT ACRS THE NRN CWFA.                 
 AT 20Z...LOW PRESSURE WAS DEVELOPING ALONG A STATIONARY FRONT OVER             
 NW ARKANSAS.  AS A STRONG S/WV AND JET PIVOT NORTHEAST INTO THE                
 CNTRL PLAINS TONIGHT AND THEN INTO THE WRN GREAT LAKES ON                      
 MONDAY...THE LOW WILL MOVE NORTHEAST AND DEEPEN WITH TIME...BEING              
 LOCATED NEAR SW INDIANA AT 06Z MONDAY AND NEAR NW OHIO BY 12Z MONDAY.          
 THE LOW WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH STRONG...MOIST LOW LVL WARM                    
 ADVECTION.  THIS STRONG ASCENT WILL TEAM UP WITH UPR LVL DIVERGENCE            
 FROM A STRONG JET ALOFT.  THIS WILL RESULT IN WIDESPREAD PCPN ACRS             
 THE CWFA OVERNIGHT.  IN FACT...LATEST MOSAIC RADAR WAS SHOWING A               
 LARGE AREA OF PCPN BLOSSOMING ACRS THE CNTRL AND SRN PLAINS.  THIS             
 PCPN WILL CONTINUE TO EXPAND AND MOVE NE INTO THE REGION TONIGHT.              
 THERE IS A LOT TO BE CONCERNED ABOUT OVERNIGHT INTO THE FIRST PART             
 OF MONDAY AS COLD AIR REMAINS TRAPPED NEAR THE SFC ACRS THE FAR NRN            
 CWFA.  LATEST OBSERVATIONS SHOW TEMPS HOVERING BETWEEN 30 AND 33               
 DEGREES ACRS FAR NRN INDIANA...SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN AND FAR                 
 NORTHWEST OHIO.  THESE TEMPS WILL NOT BUDGE MUCH OVERNIGHT...AND MAY           
 SLIGHTLY DROP A DEGREE OR TWO.  FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE                       
 REGION...TEMPS WILL REMAIN STEADY STATE IN THE LOWER TO MID                    
 30S...EXPECT FOR THE FAR SOUTHEAST WHERE WARMER AIR WILL BE PULLED             
 WESTWARD AS THE LOW APPROACHES.   WITH ABOUT THREE QUARTERS TO                 
 AROUND ONE INCH OF QPF EXPECTED OVERNIGHT...SIGNIFICANT ICING WILL             
 OCCUR ACRS THE MICHIGAN COUNTIES WHERE ABOUT A HALF INCH OF ICE                
 ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED.  FOR THE FAR NRN INDIANA AND NORTHWEST               
 OHIO COUNTIES...ICE ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE LESS THAN A QUARTER INCH.            
 FARTHER SOUTH...MAINLY RAIN IS EXPECTED.  AN ICE STORM WARNING WILL            
 BE ISSUED FOR THE MICHIGAN COUNTIES UNTIL 17Z MONDAY...WHILE A                 
 FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED FOR THE FAR NRN INDIANA/NW               
 OHIO COUNTIES THROUGH 17Z MONDAY. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL ACRS THE FAR             
 SOUTH/SOUTHEAST WILL LIKELY LEAD TO RIVER FLOODING ALONG THE UPPER             
 WABASH AND MAUMEE RIVER BASINS..SO WILL MAINTAIN FLOOD WATCH FOR               
 THIS LOCATION THROUGH 18Z MONDAY.                                              
 ON MONDAY...AS SFC LOW PRESSURE PULLS AWAY TO THE NE...COLDER AIR              
 WILL BEGIN TO FILTER SE INTO THE FCST AREA.  THERE WILL LIKELY BE              
 FREEZING PCPN ACRS THE NW HALF OF THE CWFA...BUT THIS SHOULD BE ON             
 THE LIGHT SIDE.  FOR THE SOUTHEAST...LIGHT RAIN IS EXPECTED.  MODELS           
 CONTINUE TO SHOW A DRY SLOT WORKING INTO THE REGION BY MID MORNING.            
 THIS MAY CHC PCPN TO DRIZZLE OR FREEZING DRIZZLE.  HAVE OPTED TO GO            
 WITH THE LIGHT FREEZING RAIN/LIGHT RAIN WORDING DUE TO LINGER PCPN             
 EARLY IN THE MORNING IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE LOW AND FOR THE FACT              
 THAT SOME OF THE DRIZZLE MAY MEASURE.  AS COLDER AIR AND DEEPER                
 ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE FILTER INTO THE REGION DURING THE                         
 AFTERNOON...ANY DRIZZLE WILL CHANGEOVER TO SOME LIGHT SNOW.  MAIN              
 LAKE EFFECT EVENT LOOKS TO HOLD OFF UNTIL MONDAY NIGHT AND WILL                
 LEAVE THOSE DETAILS TO THE LONG TERM FORECASTER.                               
 &&                                                                             
 .LONG TERM...                                                                  
 MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY                                                    
 ...SIGNIFICANT LAKE EFFECT SNOW POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH                  
 TUESDAY...                                                                     
 MAIN CONCERN FOR THE LONG TERM TODAY REVOLVES AROUND LAKE EFFECT               
 POTENTIAL AT THE START OF THE PERIOD. MODERATE LOW/MID LEVEL CAA               
 FOLLOWING MAJOR FRONTAL WAVE ON MON WILL BRING MUCH COLDER AIR                 
 ACROSS THE LAKE WITH AMPLE LAKE INSTABILITY DEVELOPING. NEAR RECORD            
 WARM LAKE TEMPERATURE OF AROUND 5C PER LATEST SATELLITE DERIVED DATA           
 WILL CONTRIBUTE TO MODERATE COLLIER INDEX WITH LAKE INDUCED CAPE               
 AROUND 500J/KG AND LAKE INDUCED EQUILIBRIUM LEVELS AROUND 10K FEET.            
 INSTABILITY IS CERTAINLY MORE THAN AMPLE...HOWEVER MUCH UNCERTAINTY            
 LIES WITH BAND MODE...PLACEMENT...AND AMOUNT OF SHEAR. FROM A                  
 PATTERN RECOGNITION PROSPECTIVE...SETUP LOOKS VERY FAVORABLE WITH A            
 1040+MB HIGH BUILDING SOUTH THROUGH THE PLAINS AND FAVORABLE N/NNW             
 FLOW DEVELOPING DOWN A SUBSTANTIAL FETCH OF LAKE MICHIGAN. A                   
 POTENTIAL NEGATIVE...BOTH NAM/GFS SUGGEST THERE WILL BE SOME SHEAR             
 NEAR THE TOP OF THE LAKE INDUCED MIXED LAYER WITH A MORE WESTERLY              
 COMPONENT AT 700MB AND MORE NW/NNW AT 850MB. NAM-WRF PLUME ANALYSIS            
 CONTINUES TO SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR A TYPE I LAKE EFFECT                    
 BAND...MEANING A DOMINANT BAND PARALLEL TO THE MAJOR AXIS OF THE               
 LAKE.                                                                          
 NAM-WRF HAS BEEN FLIP-FLOPPING WILDLY FROM RUN TO RUN WITH RESPECT             
 TO DIRECTION OF LOW LEVEL FLOW...WITH 00Z AND 06Z RUNS SUGGESTING A            
 NEAR DUE NORTH FETCH...WHILE 12Z RUN SUGGESTS MORE NW FETCH. A LOOK            
 AT SOME OTHER MESOSCALE GUIDANCE SUCH AS THE FSL EXPERIMENTAL RUC              
 AND THE CANADIAN GEM SHOW MORE UNCERTAINTY...WITH BOTH THOSE MODELS            
 DEPICTING MORE NORTHERLY FLOW AND A MORE WESTWARD BAND PLACEMENT.              
 TYPICAL BIAS OF MESOSCALE MODELS ARE TO BE TOO FAR WEST WITH A                 
 DOMINANT BAND AT THE SOUTHERN END OF LAKE MICHIGAN. WITH THE VERY              
 POOR MODEL AGREEMENT AND CONSISTENCY...JUST NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE              
 ON BAND PLACEMENT OR MODE TO GO WITH AN LES WATCH YET. STILL ENOUGH            
 TIME FOR A SHORTER RANGE WATCH FROM THE MIDNIGHT SHIFT IF MODEL                
 GUIDANCE STARTS TO CONVERGE ON A COMMON SOLUTION. THIS DOES HAVE THE           
 POTENTIAL TO BE A MAJOR EVENT GIVEN STRONG THERMODYNAMICS...BUT ONLY           
 IF A DOMINANT BAND FORMS...AND THAT IS STILL QUITE UNCERTAIN.                  
 CP SURFACE HIGH BUILDS ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY LATER TUE NGT INTO WED           
 WITH CRASHING INVERSION HEIGHTS AND BACKING LOW LEVEL FLOW CUTTING             
 OFF ANY REMAINING LAKE EFFECT. SHOULD SEE A DRY PERIOD FOR WED AND             
 THU WITH A MODERATING TREND AS HEIGHTS RISE IN RESPONSE TO DIGGING             
 UPSTREAM TROUGH. VERY LITTLE CHANGE MADE TO CONTINUITY IN THE LATER            
 PERIODS WITH PRIMARY CONCERNS IN SHORT TERM HIGH IMPACT WEATHER.               
 STILL APPEARS THAT ONE OR SEVERAL CLIPPER TYPE SHORTWAVES WILL CROSS           
 THE GREAT LAKES STARTING AT THE END OF THE WEEK AND HAVE CONTINUED             
 WITH LOW CHANCE POPS...MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE               
 CWA. TEMPS WILL AVERAGE AROUND NORMAL FOR MUCH OF THE LONG TERM...             
 BUT THIS WILL FEEL COLD AFTER THE INCREDIBLE STRETCH OF WARM WEATHER           
 THE PAST MONTH.                                                                
 &&                                                                             
 .IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                            
 IN...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON FOR INZ020-INZ022-INZ023-            
      INZ024-INZ025-INZ026-INZ027-INZ032-INZ033-INZ034.                         
      FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 12 PM EST /11 AM CST/ MONDAY FOR             
      INZ008-INZ009-INZ012-INZ013-INZ014-INZ015-INZ016-INZ017-                  
      INZ018.                                                                   
      ICE STORM WARNING UNTIL 12 PM EST /11 AM CST/ MONDAY FOR INZ003-          
      INZ004-INZ005-INZ006-INZ007.                                              
 MI...ICE STORM WARNING UNTIL 12 PM EST MONDAY FOR MIZ077-MIZ078-               
      MIZ079-MIZ080-MIZ081.                                                     
 OH...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON FOR OHZ016-OHZ024-OHZ025.            
      FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 12 PM EST MONDAY FOR OHZ004-OHZ005-          
      OHZ015.                                                                   
      ICE STORM WARNING UNTIL 12 PM EST MONDAY FOR OHZ001-OHZ002.               
 LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EST TUESDAY FOR LMZ043-LMZ046.            
 $$                                                                             
 AVIATION/UPDATE...TAYLOR                                                       
 SHORT TERM...HICKMAN                                                           
 LONG TERM....HITCHCOCK                                                         
</pre> in                                                                       

 AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                       
 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA                                      
 937 PM EST SUN JAN 14 2007                                                     
 .UPDATE...                                                                     
 EVE RAOB/TAMDAR SOUNDINGS SHOWING WARM LAYER OF GENERALLY +2 TO +6C            
 OVER OUR AREA RESULTING IN INITIAL PRECIP REACHING THE GROUND AS               
 RN/ZR. SFC OBS AND CALLS TO POLICE IN THE AREA INDICATE SO FAR ONLY            
 PATCHY REPORTS OF GLAZING IN NRN INDIANA AND NW OH EVEN THOUGH SOME            
 ASOS/AWOS SITES REPORTING TEMPS AT FREEZING. THIS PRBLY A RESULT OF            
 TEMPERATURE OF HEAVY RAINFALL GENERALLY REACHING THE GROUND ABOVE              
 FREEZING. IN MICHIGAN WHERE SFC TEMPS HAVE BEEN RUNNING A DEGREE OR            
 TWO BELOW FREEZING ALL DAY AND THIS EVE, MORE WIDESPREAD GLAZING IS            
 BEING REPORTED. WITH WAA OVERNIGHT AS SFC LOW MOVES NE FROM SRN MO             
 TO WEST CENTRAL OH, THE RN/SN LINE, WHICH IS EXPECTED TO SETUP FROM            
 JUST NORTH OF CHICAGO TO JUST NORTH OF DETROIT THIS EVE, WILL PRBLY            
 SHIFT SLIGHTLY NORTH. THUS, AS IN GOING FCST STILL EXPECTING A                 
 MAINLY LIQUID EVENT WITH MAIN THREAT FOR ICE ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS              
 OUR NRN COUNTIES. MAIN QUESTIONS ARE HOW MUCH OF THE HEAVY RAIN WILL           
 ACCUMULATE AS ICE IN THE ADVISORY AREAS AND IF SFC TEMPS WILL FALL             
 SUFFICIENTLY SOUTH OF THE ADVISORY AREA TO WARRANT EXPANSION. FOR              
 NOW FEEL THINGS ARE ON TRACK AND WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR BUT NO               
 CHANGES TO HEADLINES OR FCSTS PLANNED THIS EVE.                                
 &&                                                                             
 .AVIATION...                                                                   
 ONLY MINOR CHANGES TO PREVIOUS TAFS. AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DVLPG OVER           
 SWRN MO THIS EVE WAS CAUSING OVER-RUNNING PRECIP TO DVLP NORTH OF              
 STNRY FRONT ALONG OH RVR. THIS SHOULD SPREAD INTO NRN INDIANA OVER             
 THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS WITH HEAVIEST RAINFALL INITIALLY MOVG INTO            
 THE FWA AREA. CIGS/VSBYS WERE ALREADY LOWERING IN ADVANCE OF THE               
 RAINFALL THIS EVE APPARENTLY IN RESPONSE TO DIURNAL COOLING OF THE             
 VERY MOIST LOW LEVELS. TEMPS EXPECTED TO REMAIN JUST COLD ENOUGH FOR           
 FREEZING RAIN AT SBN AND JUST WARM ENOUGH FOR RAIN NOT TO FREEZE AT            
 FWA AS THE LOW MOVES NE ACROSS SRN INDIANA TONIGHT. PRECIP INTENSITY           
 SHOULD DIMINISH ON MONDAY AS MID LEVEL DRY SLOT MOVES OVER THE AREA.           
 WITH COLD AIR WRAPPING AROUND THE LOW AS IT DEPARTS THE AREA TO OUR            
 EAST ON MONDAY, PRECIP SHOULD CHANGE OVER TO SNOW AT SBN EARLY IN              
 THE AFTN. POTENTIAL FOR LAKE ENHANCEMENT TO INTENSIFY SNOWFALL LATE            
 AFTN BUT SINCE NEAR END OF TAF PD DID NOT ADD TO TAFS YET. LIKEWISE            
 AT FWA COLDER AIR FILLING IN BEHIND THE LOW COULD CHANGE PRECIP TO             
 -ZL OR -SN LATE IN THE AFTN BUT HELD OFF MENTIONING THIS CHANGE IN             
 THE TAF FOR NOW.                                                               
 &&                                                                             
 .SHORT TERM...                                                                 
 TONIGHT AND MONDAY.                                                            
 ...SIGNIFICANT ICING EXPECTED ACROSS SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN TONIGHT           
 INTO MONDAY MORNING...                                                         
 ...SOME ICING EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHERN INDIANA AND NORTHWEST OHIO              
 TONIGHT AND MONDAY...                                                          
 12Z NAM-WRF AND 12Z GFS CONTINUE TO TREND NEXT WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE            
 FARTHER NORTHWEST.  THE NAM-WRF IS THE FARTHEST NORTHWEST OF THE               
 TWO...PLACING THE WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE OVER NW OHIO BY 12Z MONDAY.             
 BASED ON THE TREND OF BRINGING THE LOW FARTHER NORTHWEST...FEEL MORE           
 INCLINED TO SIDE WITH THE NAM-WRF AND THUS WILL USE ITS SOLUTION AS            
 A BACKBONE TO THE SHORT TERM FORECAST.  ITS WARMER THERMAL PROFILE             
 WILL RESULT IN MOSTLY FREEZING RAIN TONIGHT ACRS THE NRN CWFA.                 
 AT 20Z...LOW PRESSURE WAS DEVELOPING ALONG A STATIONARY FRONT OVER             
 NW ARKANSAS.  AS A STRONG S/WV AND JET PIVOT NORTHEAST INTO THE                
 CNTRL PLAINS TONIGHT AND THEN INTO THE WRN GREAT LAKES ON                      
 MONDAY...THE LOW WILL MOVE NORTHEAST AND DEEPEN WITH TIME...BEING              
 LOCATED NEAR SW INDIANA AT 06Z MONDAY AND NEAR NW OHIO BY 12Z MONDAY.          
 THE LOW WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH STRONG...MOIST LOW LVL WARM                    
 ADVECTION.  THIS STRONG ASCENT WILL TEAM UP WITH UPR LVL DIVERGENCE            
 FROM A STRONG JET ALOFT.  THIS WILL RESULT IN WIDESPREAD PCPN ACRS             
 THE CWFA OVERNIGHT.  IN FACT...LATEST MOSAIC RADAR WAS SHOWING A               
 LARGE AREA OF PCPN BLOSSOMING ACRS THE CNTRL AND SRN PLAINS.  THIS             
 PCPN WILL CONTINUE TO EXPAND AND MOVE NE INTO THE REGION TONIGHT.              
 THERE IS A LOT TO BE CONCERNED ABOUT OVERNIGHT INTO THE FIRST PART             
 OF MONDAY AS COLD AIR REMAINS TRAPPED NEAR THE SFC ACRS THE FAR NRN            
 CWFA.  LATEST OBSERVATIONS SHOW TEMPS HOVERING BETWEEN 30 AND 33               
 DEGREES ACRS FAR NRN INDIANA...SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN AND FAR                 
 NORTHWEST OHIO.  THESE TEMPS WILL NOT BUDGE MUCH OVERNIGHT...AND MAY           
 SLIGHTLY DROP A DEGREE OR TWO.  FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE                       
 REGION...TEMPS WILL REMAIN STEADY STATE IN THE LOWER TO MID                    
 30S...EXPECT FOR THE FAR SOUTHEAST WHERE WARMER AIR WILL BE PULLED             
 WESTWARD AS THE LOW APPROACHES.   WITH ABOUT THREE QUARTERS TO                 
 AROUND ONE INCH OF QPF EXPECTED OVERNIGHT...SIGNIFICANT ICING WILL             
 OCCUR ACRS THE MICHIGAN COUNTIES WHERE ABOUT A HALF INCH OF ICE                
 ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED.  FOR THE FAR NRN INDIANA AND NORTHWEST               
 OHIO COUNTIES...ICE ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE LESS THAN A QUARTER INCH.            
 FARTHER SOUTH...MAINLY RAIN IS EXPECTED.  AN ICE STORM WARNING WILL            
 BE ISSUED FOR THE MICHIGAN COUNTIES UNTIL 17Z MONDAY...WHILE A                 
 FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED FOR THE FAR NRN INDIANA/NW               
 OHIO COUNTIES THROUGH 17Z MONDAY. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL ACRS THE FAR             
 SOUTH/SOUTHEAST WILL LIKELY LEAD TO RIVER FLOODING ALONG THE UPPER             
 WABASH AND MAUMEE RIVER BASINS..SO WILL MAINTAIN FLOOD WATCH FOR               
 THIS LOCATION THROUGH 18Z MONDAY.                                              
 ON MONDAY...AS SFC LOW PRESSURE PULLS AWAY TO THE NE...COLDER AIR              
 WILL BEGIN TO FILTER SE INTO THE FCST AREA.  THERE WILL LIKELY BE              
 FREEZING PCPN ACRS THE NW HALF OF THE CWFA...BUT THIS SHOULD BE ON             
 THE LIGHT SIDE.  FOR THE SOUTHEAST...LIGHT RAIN IS EXPECTED.  MODELS           
 CONTINUE TO SHOW A DRY SLOT WORKING INTO THE REGION BY MID MORNING.            
 THIS MAY CHC PCPN TO DRIZZLE OR FREEZING DRIZZLE.  HAVE OPTED TO GO            
 WITH THE LIGHT FREEZING RAIN/LIGHT RAIN WORDING DUE TO LINGER PCPN             
 EARLY IN THE MORNING IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE LOW AND FOR THE FACT              
 THAT SOME OF THE DRIZZLE MAY MEASURE.  AS COLDER AIR AND DEEPER                
 ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE FILTER INTO THE REGION DURING THE                         
 AFTERNOON...ANY DRIZZLE WILL CHANGEOVER TO SOME LIGHT SNOW.  MAIN              
 LAKE EFFECT EVENT LOOKS TO HOLD OFF UNTIL MONDAY NIGHT AND WILL                
 LEAVE THOSE DETAILS TO THE LONG TERM FORECASTER.                               
 &&                                                                             
 .LONG TERM...                                                                  
 MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY                                                    
 ...SIGNIFICANT LAKE EFFECT SNOW POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH                  
 TUESDAY...                                                                     
 MAIN CONCERN FOR THE LONG TERM TODAY REVOLVES AROUND LAKE EFFECT               
 POTENTIAL AT THE START OF THE PERIOD. MODERATE LOW/MID LEVEL CAA               
 FOLLOWING MAJOR FRONTAL WAVE ON MON WILL BRING MUCH COLDER AIR                 
 ACROSS THE LAKE WITH AMPLE LAKE INSTABILITY DEVELOPING. NEAR RECORD            
 WARM LAKE TEMPERATURE OF AROUND 5C PER LATEST SATELLITE DERIVED DATA           
 WILL CONTRIBUTE TO MODERATE COLLIER INDEX WITH LAKE INDUCED CAPE               
 AROUND 500J/KG AND LAKE INDUCED EQUILIBRIUM LEVELS AROUND 10K FEET.            
 INSTABILITY IS CERTAINLY MORE THAN AMPLE...HOWEVER MUCH UNCERTAINTY            
 LIES WITH BAND MODE...PLACEMENT...AND AMOUNT OF SHEAR. FROM A                  
 PATTERN RECOGNITION PROSPECTIVE...SETUP LOOKS VERY FAVORABLE WITH A            
 1040+MB HIGH BUILDING SOUTH THROUGH THE PLAINS AND FAVORABLE N/NNW             
 FLOW DEVELOPING DOWN A SUBSTANTIAL FETCH OF LAKE MICHIGAN. A                   
 POTENTIAL NEGATIVE...BOTH NAM/GFS SUGGEST THERE WILL BE SOME SHEAR             
 NEAR THE TOP OF THE LAKE INDUCED MIXED LAYER WITH A MORE WESTERLY              
 COMPONENT AT 700MB AND MORE NW/NNW AT 850MB. NAM-WRF PLUME ANALYSIS            
 CONTINUES TO SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR A TYPE I LAKE EFFECT                    
 BAND...MEANING A DOMINANT BAND PARALLEL TO THE MAJOR AXIS OF THE               
 LAKE.                                                                          
 NAM-WRF HAS BEEN FLIP-FLOPPING WILDLY FROM RUN TO RUN WITH RESPECT             
 TO DIRECTION OF LOW LEVEL FLOW...WITH 00Z AND 06Z RUNS SUGGESTING A            
 NEAR DUE NORTH FETCH...WHILE 12Z RUN SUGGESTS MORE NW FETCH. A LOOK            
 AT SOME OTHER MESOSCALE GUIDANCE SUCH AS THE FSL EXPERIMENTAL RUC              
 AND THE CANADIAN GEM SHOW MORE UNCERTAINTY...WITH BOTH THOSE MODELS            
 DEPICTING MORE NORTHERLY FLOW AND A MORE WESTWARD BAND PLACEMENT.              
 TYPICAL BIAS OF MESOSCALE MODELS ARE TO BE TOO FAR WEST WITH A                 
 DOMINANT BAND AT THE SOUTHERN END OF LAKE MICHIGAN. WITH THE VERY              
 POOR MODEL AGREEMENT AND CONSISTENCY...JUST NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE              
 ON BAND PLACEMENT OR MODE TO GO WITH AN LES WATCH YET. STILL ENOUGH            
 TIME FOR A SHORTER RANGE WATCH FROM THE MIDNIGHT SHIFT IF MODEL                
 GUIDANCE STARTS TO CONVERGE ON A COMMON SOLUTION. THIS DOES HAVE THE           
 POTENTIAL TO BE A MAJOR EVENT GIVEN STRONG THERMODYNAMICS...BUT ONLY           
 IF A DOMINANT BAND FORMS...AND THAT IS STILL QUITE UNCERTAIN.                  
 CP SURFACE HIGH BUILDS ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY LATER TUE NGT INTO WED           
 WITH CRASHING INVERSION HEIGHTS AND BACKING LOW LEVEL FLOW CUTTING             
 OFF ANY REMAINING LAKE EFFECT. SHOULD SEE A DRY PERIOD FOR WED AND             
 THU WITH A MODERATING TREND AS HEIGHTS RISE IN RESPONSE TO DIGGING             
 UPSTREAM TROUGH. VERY LITTLE CHANGE MADE TO CONTINUITY IN THE LATER            
 PERIODS WITH PRIMARY CONCERNS IN SHORT TERM HIGH IMPACT WEATHER.               
 STILL APPEARS THAT ONE OR SEVERAL CLIPPER TYPE SHORTWAVES WILL CROSS           
 THE GREAT LAKES STARTING AT THE END OF THE WEEK AND HAVE CONTINUED             
 WITH LOW CHANCE POPS...MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE               
 CWA. TEMPS WILL AVERAGE AROUND NORMAL FOR MUCH OF THE LONG TERM...             
 BUT THIS WILL FEEL COLD AFTER THE INCREDIBLE STRETCH OF WARM WEATHER           
 THE PAST MONTH.                                                                
 &&                                                                             
 .IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                            
 IN...FLOOD WATCH FROM 7 PM EST THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON           
      FOR INZ020-INZ022-INZ023-INZ024-INZ025-INZ026-INZ027-INZ032-              
      INZ033-INZ034.                                                            
      FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 12 PM EST /11 AM CST/ MONDAY FOR             
      INZ003-INZ004-INZ005-INZ006-INZ007.                                       
 MI...ICE STORM WARNING UNTIL 12 PM EST MONDAY FOR MIZ077-MIZ078-               
      MIZ079-MIZ080-MIZ081.                                                     
 OH...FLOOD WATCH FROM 7 PM EST THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON           
      FOR OHZ016-OHZ024-OHZ025.                                                 
      FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 12 PM EST MONDAY FOR OHZ001-OHZ002.          
 LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT EST UNTIL 5PM EST TUESDAY              
      FOR LMZ043-LMZ046.                                                        
 &&                                                                             
 $$                                                                             
 AVIATION/UPDATE...TAYLOR                                                       
 SHORT TERM...HICKMAN                                                           
 LONG TERM....HITCHCOCK                                                         
</pre> in                                                                       

 AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                       
 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA                                      
 627 PM EST SUN JAN 14 2007                                                     
 .AVIATION...                                                                   
 ONLY MINOR CHANGES TO PREVIOUS TAFS. AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DVLPG OVER           
 SWRN MO THIS EVE WAS CAUSING OVER-RUNNING PRECIP TO DVLP NORTH OF              
 STNRY FRONT ALONG OH RVR. THIS SHOULD SPREAD INTO NRN INDIANA OVER             
 THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS WITH HEAVIEST RAINFALL INITIALLY MOVG INTO            
 THE FWA AREA. CIGS/VSBYS WERE ALREADY LOWERING IN ADVANCE OF THE               
 RAINFALL THIS EVE APPARENTLY IN RESPONSE TO DIURNAL COOLING OF THE             
 VERY MOIST LOW LEVELS. TEMPS EXPECTED TO REMAIN JUST COLD ENOUGH FOR           
 FREEZING RAIN AT SBN AND JUST WARM ENOUGH FOR RAIN NOT TO FREEZE AT            
 FWA AS THE LOW MOVES NE ACROSS SRN INDIANA TONIGHT. PRECIP INTENSITY           
 SHOULD DIMINISH ON MONDAY AS MID LEVEL DRY SLOT MOVES OVER THE AREA.           
 WITH COLD AIR WRAPPING AROUND THE LOW AS IT DEPARTS THE AREA TO OUR            
 EAST ON MONDAY, PRECIP SHOULD CHANGE OVER TO SNOW AT SBN EARLY IN              
 THE AFTN. POTENTIAL FOR LAKE ENHANCEMENT TO INTENSIFY SNOWFALL LATE            
 AFTN BUT SINCE NEAR END OF TAF PD DID NOT ADD TO TAFS YET. LIKEWISE            
 AT FWA COLDER AIR FILLING IN BEHIND THE LOW COULD CHANGE PRECIP TO             
 -ZL OR -SN LATE IN THE AFTN BUT HELD OFF MENTIONING THIS CHANGE IN             
 THE TAF FOR NOW.                                                               
 &&                                                                             
 .SHORT TERM...                                                                 
 TONIGHT AND MONDAY.                                                            
 ...SIGNIFICANT ICING EXPECTED ACROSS SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN TONIGHT           
 INTO MONDAY MORNING...                                                         
 ...SOME ICING EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHERN INDIANA AND NORTHWEST OHIO              
 TONIGHT AND MONDAY...                                                          
 12Z NAM-WRF AND 12Z GFS CONTINUE TO TREND NEXT WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE            
 FARTHER NORTHWEST.  THE NAM-WRF IS THE FARTHEST NORTHWEST OF THE               
 TWO...PLACING THE WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE OVER NW OHIO BY 12Z MONDAY.             
 BASED ON THE TREND OF BRINGING THE LOW FARTHER NORTHWEST...FEEL MORE           
 INCLINED TO SIDE WITH THE NAM-WRF AND THUS WILL USE ITS SOLUTION AS            
 A BACKBONE TO THE SHORT TERM FORECAST.  ITS WARMER THERMAL PROFILE             
 WILL RESULT IN MOSTLY FREEZING RAIN TONIGHT ACRS THE NRN CWFA.                 
 AT 20Z...LOW PRESSURE WAS DEVELOPING ALONG A STATIONARY FRONT OVER             
 NW ARKANSAS.  AS A STRONG S/WV AND JET PIVOT NORTHEAST INTO THE                
 CNTRL PLAINS TONIGHT AND THEN INTO THE WRN GREAT LAKES ON                      
 MONDAY...THE LOW WILL MOVE NORTHEAST AND DEEPEN WITH TIME...BEING              
 LOCATED NEAR SW INDIANA AT 06Z MONDAY AND NEAR NW OHIO BY 12Z MONDAY.          
 THE LOW WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH STRONG...MOIST LOW LVL WARM                    
 ADVECTION.  THIS STRONG ASCENT WILL TEAM UP WITH UPR LVL DIVERGENCE            
 FROM A STRONG JET ALOFT.  THIS WILL RESULT IN WIDESPREAD PCPN ACRS             
 THE CWFA OVERNIGHT.  IN FACT...LATEST MOSAIC RADAR WAS SHOWING A               
 LARGE AREA OF PCPN BLOSSOMING ACRS THE CNTRL AND SRN PLAINS.  THIS             
 PCPN WILL CONTINUE TO EXPAND AND MOVE NE INTO THE REGION TONIGHT.              
 THERE IS A LOT TO BE CONCERNED ABOUT OVERNIGHT INTO THE FIRST PART             
 OF MONDAY AS COLD AIR REMAINS TRAPPED NEAR THE SFC ACRS THE FAR NRN            
 CWFA.  LATEST OBSERVATIONS SHOW TEMPS HOVERING BETWEEN 30 AND 33               
 DEGREES ACRS FAR NRN INDIANA...SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN AND FAR                 
 NORTHWEST OHIO.  THESE TEMPS WILL NOT BUDGE MUCH OVERNIGHT...AND MAY           
 SLIGHTLY DROP A DEGREE OR TWO.  FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE                       
 REGION...TEMPS WILL REMAIN STEADY STATE IN THE LOWER TO MID                    
 30S...EXPECT FOR THE FAR SOUTHEAST WHERE WARMER AIR WILL BE PULLED             
 WESTWARD AS THE LOW APPROACHES.   WITH ABOUT THREE QUARTERS TO                 
 AROUND ONE INCH OF QPF EXPECTED OVERNIGHT...SIGNIFICANT ICING WILL             
 OCCUR ACRS THE MICHIGAN COUNTIES WHERE ABOUT A HALF INCH OF ICE                
 ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED.  FOR THE FAR NRN INDIANA AND NORTHWEST               
 OHIO COUNTIES...ICE ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE LESS THAN A QUARTER INCH.            
 FARTHER SOUTH...MAINLY RAIN IS EXPECTED.  AN ICE STORM WARNING WILL            
 BE ISSUED FOR THE MICHIGAN COUNTIES UNTIL 17Z MONDAY...WHILE A                 
 FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED FOR THE FAR NRN INDIANA/NW               
 OHIO COUNTIES THROUGH 17Z MONDAY. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL ACRS THE FAR             
 SOUTH/SOUTHEAST WILL LIKELY LEAD TO RIVER FLOODING ALONG THE UPPER             
 WABASH AND MAUMEE RIVER BASINS..SO WILL MAINTAIN FLOOD WATCH FOR               
 THIS LOCATION THROUGH 18Z MONDAY.                                              
 ON MONDAY...AS SFC LOW PRESSURE PULLS AWAY TO THE NE...COLDER AIR              
 WILL BEGIN TO FILTER SE INTO THE FCST AREA.  THERE WILL LIKELY BE              
 FREEZING PCPN ACRS THE NW HALF OF THE CWFA...BUT THIS SHOULD BE ON             
 THE LIGHT SIDE.  FOR THE SOUTHEAST...LIGHT RAIN IS EXPECTED.  MODELS           
 CONTINUE TO SHOW A DRY SLOT WORKING INTO THE REGION BY MID MORNING.            
 THIS MAY CHC PCPN TO DRIZZLE OR FREEZING DRIZZLE.  HAVE OPTED TO GO            
 WITH THE LIGHT FREEZING RAIN/LIGHT RAIN WORDING DUE TO LINGER PCPN             
 EARLY IN THE MORNING IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE LOW AND FOR THE FACT              
 THAT SOME OF THE DRIZZLE MAY MEASURE.  AS COLDER AIR AND DEEPER                
 ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE FILTER INTO THE REGION DURING THE                         
 AFTERNOON...ANY DRIZZLE WILL CHANGEOVER TO SOME LIGHT SNOW.  MAIN              
 LAKE EFFECT EVENT LOOKS TO HOLD OFF UNTIL MONDAY NIGHT AND WILL                
 LEAVE THOSE DETAILS TO THE LONG TERM FORECASTER.                               
 &&                                                                             
 .LONG TERM...                                                                  
 MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY                                                    
 ...SIGNIFICANT LAKE EFFECT SNOW POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH                  
 TUESDAY...                                                                     
 MAIN CONCERN FOR THE LONG TERM TODAY REVOLVES AROUND LAKE EFFECT               
 POTENTIAL AT THE START OF THE PERIOD. MODERATE LOW/MID LEVEL CAA               
 FOLLOWING MAJOR FRONTAL WAVE ON MON WILL BRING MUCH COLDER AIR                 
 ACROSS THE LAKE WITH AMPLE LAKE INSTABILITY DEVELOPING. NEAR RECORD            
 WARM LAKE TEMPERATURE OF AROUND 5C PER LATEST SATELLITE DERIVED DATA           
 WILL CONTRIBUTE TO MODERATE COLLIER INDEX WITH LAKE INDUCED CAPE               
 AROUND 500J/KG AND LAKE INDUCED EQUILIBRIUM LEVELS AROUND 10K FEET.            
 INSTABILITY IS CERTAINLY MORE THAN AMPLE...HOWEVER MUCH UNCERTAINTY            
 LIES WITH BAND MODE...PLACEMENT...AND AMOUNT OF SHEAR. FROM A                  
 PATTERN RECOGNITION PROSPECTIVE...SETUP LOOKS VERY FAVORABLE WITH A            
 1040+MB HIGH BUILDING SOUTH THROUGH THE PLAINS AND FAVORABLE N/NNW             
 FLOW DEVELOPING DOWN A SUBSTANTIAL FETCH OF LAKE MICHIGAN. A                   
 POTENTIAL NEGATIVE...BOTH NAM/GFS SUGGEST THERE WILL BE SOME SHEAR             
 NEAR THE TOP OF THE LAKE INDUCED MIXED LAYER WITH A MORE WESTERLY              
 COMPONENT AT 700MB AND MORE NW/NNW AT 850MB. NAM-WRF PLUME ANALYSIS            
 CONTINUES TO SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR A TYPE I LAKE EFFECT                    
 BAND...MEANING A DOMINANT BAND PARALLEL TO THE MAJOR AXIS OF THE               
 LAKE.                                                                          
 NAM-WRF HAS BEEN FLIP-FLOPPING WILDLY FROM RUN TO RUN WITH RESPECT             
 TO DIRECTION OF LOW LEVEL FLOW...WITH 00Z AND 06Z RUNS SUGGESTING A            
 NEAR DUE NORTH FETCH...WHILE 12Z RUN SUGGESTS MORE NW FETCH. A LOOK            
 AT SOME OTHER MESOSCALE GUIDANCE SUCH AS THE FSL EXPERIMENTAL RUC              
 AND THE CANADIAN GEM SHOW MORE UNCERTAINTY...WITH BOTH THOSE MODELS            
 DEPICTING MORE NORTHERLY FLOW AND A MORE WESTWARD BAND PLACEMENT.              
 TYPICAL BIAS OF MESOSCALE MODELS ARE TO BE TOO FAR WEST WITH A                 
 DOMINANT BAND AT THE SOUTHERN END OF LAKE MICHIGAN. WITH THE VERY              
 POOR MODEL AGREEMENT AND CONSISTENCY...JUST NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE              
 ON BAND PLACEMENT OR MODE TO GO WITH AN LES WATCH YET. STILL ENOUGH            
 TIME FOR A SHORTER RANGE WATCH FROM THE MIDNIGHT SHIFT IF MODEL                
 GUIDANCE STARTS TO CONVERGE ON A COMMON SOLUTION. THIS DOES HAVE THE           
 POTENTIAL TO BE A MAJOR EVENT GIVEN STRONG THERMODYNAMICS...BUT ONLY           
 IF A DOMINANT BAND FORMS...AND THAT IS STILL QUITE UNCERTAIN.                  
 CP SURFACE HIGH BUILDS ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY LATER TUE NGT INTO WED           
 WITH CRASHING INVERSION HEIGHTS AND BACKING LOW LEVEL FLOW CUTTING             
 OFF ANY REMAINING LAKE EFFECT. SHOULD SEE A DRY PERIOD FOR WED AND             
 THU WITH A MODERATING TREND AS HEIGHTS RISE IN RESPONSE TO DIGGING             
 UPSTREAM TROUGH. VERY LITTLE CHANGE MADE TO CONTINUITY IN THE LATER            
 PERIODS WITH PRIMARY CONCERNS IN SHORT TERM HIGH IMPACT WEATHER.               
 STILL APPEARS THAT ONE OR SEVERAL CLIPPER TYPE SHORTWAVES WILL CROSS           
 THE GREAT LAKES STARTING AT THE END OF THE WEEK AND HAVE CONTINUED             
 WITH LOW CHANCE POPS...MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE               
 CWA. TEMPS WILL AVERAGE AROUND NORMAL FOR MUCH OF THE LONG TERM...             
 BUT THIS WILL FEEL COLD AFTER THE INCREDIBLE STRETCH OF WARM WEATHER           
 THE PAST MONTH.                                                                
 &&                                                                             
 .IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                            
 IN...FLOOD WATCH FROM 7 PM EST THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON           
      FOR INZ020-INZ022-INZ023-INZ024-INZ025-INZ026-INZ027-INZ032-              
      INZ033-INZ034.                                                            
      FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 12 PM EST /11 AM CST/ MONDAY FOR             
      INZ003-INZ004-INZ005-INZ006-INZ007.                                       
 MI...ICE STORM WARNING UNTIL 12 PM EST MONDAY FOR MIZ077-MIZ078-               
      MIZ079-MIZ080-MIZ081.                                                     
 OH...FLOOD WATCH FROM 7 PM EST THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON           
      FOR OHZ016-OHZ024-OHZ025.                                                 
      FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 12 PM EST MONDAY FOR OHZ001-OHZ002.          
 LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT EST UNTIL 5PM EST TUESDAY              
      FOR LMZ043-LMZ046.                                                        
 &&                                                                             
 $$                                                                             
 AVIATION...TAYLOR                                                              
 SHORT TERM...HICKMAN                                                           
 LONG TERM....HITCHCOCK                                                         
</pre> in                                                                       

 AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                       
 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA                                      
 357 PM EST SUN JAN 14 2007                                                     
 .SHORT TERM...                                                                 
 TONIGHT AND MONDAY.                                                            
 ...SIGNIFICANT ICING EXPECTED ACROSS SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN TONIGHT           
 INTO MONDAY MORNING...                                                         
 ...SOME ICING EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHERN INDIANA AND NORTHWEST OHIO              
 TONIGHT AND MONDAY...                                                          
 12Z NAM-WRF AND 12Z GFS CONTINUE TO TREND NEXT WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE            
 FARTHER NORTHWEST.  THE NAM-WRF IS THE FARTHEST NORTHWEST OF THE               
 TWO...PLACING THE WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE OVER NW OHIO BY 12Z MONDAY.             
 BASED ON THE TREND OF BRINGING THE LOW FARTHER NORTHWEST...FEEL MORE           
 INCLINED TO SIDE WITH THE NAM-WRF AND THUS WILL USE ITS SOLUTION AS            
 A BACKBONE TO THE SHORT TERM FORECAST.  ITS WARMER THERMAL PROFILE             
 WILL RESULT IN MOSTLY FREEZING RAIN TONIGHT ACRS THE NRN CWFA.                 
 AT 20Z...LOW PRESSURE WAS DEVELOPING ALONG A STATIONARY FRONT OVER             
 NW ARKANSAS.  AS A STRONG S/WV AND JET PIVOT NORTHEAST INTO THE                
 CNTRL PLAINS TONIGHT AND THEN INTO THE WRN GREAT LAKES ON                      
 MONDAY...THE LOW WILL MOVE NORTHEAST AND DEEPEN WITH TIME...BEING              
 LOCATED NEAR SW INDIANA AT 06Z MONDAY AND NEAR NW OHIO BY 12Z MONDAY.          
 THE LOW WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH STRONG...MOIST LOW LVL WARM                    
 ADVECTION.  THIS STRONG ASCENT WILL TEAM UP WITH UPR LVL DIVERGENCE            
 FROM A STRONG JET ALOFT.  THIS WILL RESULT IN WIDESPREAD PCPN ACRS             
 THE CWFA OVERNIGHT.  IN FACT...LATEST MOSAIC RADAR WAS SHOWING A               
 LARGE AREA OF PCPN BLOSSOMING ACRS THE CNTRL AND SRN PLAINS.  THIS             
 PCPN WILL CONTINUE TO EXPAND AND MOVE NE INTO THE REGION TONIGHT.              
 THERE IS A LOT TO BE CONCERNED ABOUT OVERNIGHT INTO THE FIRST PART             
 OF MONDAY AS COLD AIR REMAINS TRAPPED NEAR THE SFC ACRS THE FAR NRN            
 CWFA.  LATEST OBSERVATIONS SHOW TEMPS HOVERING BETWEEN 30 AND 33               
 DEGREES ACRS FAR NRN INDIANA...SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN AND FAR                 
 NORTHWEST OHIO.  THESE TEMPS WILL NOT BUDGE MUCH OVERNIGHT...AND MAY           
 SLIGHTLY DROP A DEGREE OR TWO.  FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE                       
 REGION...TEMPS WILL REMAIN STEADY STATE IN THE LOWER TO MID                    
 30S...EXPECT FOR THE FAR SOUTHEAST WHERE WARMER AIR WILL BE PULLED             
 WESTWARD AS THE LOW APPROACHES.   WITH ABOUT THREE QUARTERS TO                 
 AROUND ONE INCH OF QPF EXPECTED OVERNIGHT...SIGNIFICANT ICING WILL             
 OCCUR ACRS THE MICHIGAN COUNTIES WHERE ABOUT A HALF INCH OF ICE                
 ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED.  FOR THE FAR NRN INDIANA AND NORTHWEST               
 OHIO COUNTIES...ICE ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE LESS THAN A QUARTER INCH.            
 FARTHER SOUTH...MAINLY RAIN IS EXPECTED.  AN ICE STORM WARNING WILL            
 BE ISSUED FOR THE MICHIGAN COUNTIES UNTIL 17Z MONDAY...WHILE A                 
 FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED FOR THE FAR NRN INDIANA/NW               
 OHIO COUNTIES THROUGH 17Z MONDAY. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL ACRS THE FAR             
 SOUTH/SOUTHEAST WILL LIKELY LEAD TO RIVER FLOODING ALONG THE UPPER             
 WABASH AND MAUMEE RIVER BASINS..SO WILL MAINTAIN FLOOD WATCH FOR               
 THIS LOCATION THROUGH 18Z MONDAY.                                              
 ON MONDAY...AS SFC LOW PRESSURE PULLS AWAY TO THE NE...COLDER AIR              
 WILL BEGIN TO FILTER SE INTO THE FCST AREA.  THERE WILL LIKELY BE              
 FREEZING PCPN ACRS THE NW HALF OF THE CWFA...BUT THIS SHOULD BE ON             
 THE LIGHT SIDE.  FOR THE SOUTHEAST...LIGHT RAIN IS EXPECTED.  MODELS           
 CONTINUE TO SHOW A DRY SLOT WORKING INTO THE REGION BY MID MORNING.            
 THIS MAY CHC PCPN TO DRIZZLE OR FREEZING DRIZZLE.  HAVE OPTED TO GO            
 WITH THE LIGHT FREEZING RAIN/LIGHT RAIN WORDING DUE TO LINGER PCPN             
 EARLY IN THE MORNING IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE LOW AND FOR THE FACT              
 THAT SOME OF THE DRIZZLE MAY MEASURE.  AS COLDER AIR AND DEEPER                
 ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE FILTER INTO THE REGION DURING THE                         
 AFTERNOON...ANY DRIZZLE WILL CHANGEOVER TO SOME LIGHT SNOW.  MAIN              
 LAKE EFFECT EVENT LOOKS TO HOLD OFF UNTIL MONDAY NIGHT AND WILL                
 LEAVE THOSE DETAILS TO THE LONG TERM FORECASTER.                               
 &&                                                                             
 .LONG TERM...                                                                  
 MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY                                                    
 ...SIGNIFICANT LAKE EFFECT SNOW POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH                  
 TUESDAY...                                                                     
 MAIN CONCERN FOR THE LONG TERM TODAY REVOLVES AROUND LAKE EFFECT               
 POTENTIAL AT THE START OF THE PERIOD. MODERATE LOW/MID LEVEL CAA               
 FOLLOWING MAJOR FRONTAL WAVE ON MON WILL BRING MUCH COLDER AIR                 
 ACROSS THE LAKE WITH AMPLE LAKE INSTABILITY DEVELOPING. NEAR RECORD            
 WARM LAKE TEMPERATURE OF AROUND 5C PER LATEST SATELLITE DERIVED DATA           
 WILL CONTRIBUTE TO MODERATE COLLIER INDEX WITH LAKE INDUCED CAPE               
 AROUND 500J/KG AND LAKE INDUCED EQUILIBRIUM LEVELS AROUND 10K FEET.            
 INSTABILITY IS CERTAINLY MORE THAN AMPLE...HOWEVER MUCH UNCERTAINTY            
 LIES WITH BAND MODE...PLACEMENT...AND AMOUNT OF SHEAR. FROM A                  
 PATTERN RECOGNITION PROSPECTIVE...SETUP LOOKS VERY FAVORABLE WITH A            
 1040+MB HIGH BUILDING SOUTH THROUGH THE PLAINS AND FAVORABLE N/NNW             
 FLOW DEVELOPING DOWN A SUBSTANTIAL FETCH OF LAKE MICHIGAN. A                   
 POTENTIAL NEGATIVE...BOTH NAM/GFS SUGGEST THERE WILL BE SOME SHEAR             
 NEAR THE TOP OF THE LAKE INDUCED MIXED LAYER WITH A MORE WESTERLY              
 COMPONENT AT 700MB AND MORE NW/NNW AT 850MB. NAM-WRF PLUME ANALYSIS            
 CONTINUES TO SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR A TYPE I LAKE EFFECT                    
 BAND...MEANING A DOMINANT BAND PARALLEL TO THE MAJOR AXIS OF THE               
 LAKE.                                                                          
 NAM-WRF HAS BEEN FLIP-FLOPPING WILDLY FROM RUN TO RUN WITH RESPECT             
 TO DIRECTION OF LOW LEVEL FLOW...WITH 00Z AND 06Z RUNS SUGGESTING A            
 NEAR DUE NORTH FETCH...WHILE 12Z RUN SUGGESTS MORE NW FETCH. A LOOK            
 AT SOME OTHER MESOSCALE GUIDANCE SUCH AS THE FSL EXPERIMENTAL RUC              
 AND THE CANADIAN GEM SHOW MORE UNCERTAINTY...WITH BOTH THOSE MODELS            
 DEPICTING MORE NORTHERLY FLOW AND A MORE WESTWARD BAND PLACEMENT.              
 TYPICAL BIAS OF MESOSCALE MODELS ARE TO BE TOO FAR WEST WITH A                 
 DOMINANT BAND AT THE SOUTHERN END OF LAKE MICHIGAN. WITH THE VERY              
 POOR MODEL AGREEMENT AND CONSISTENCY...JUST NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE              
 ON BAND PLACEMENT OR MODE TO GO WITH AN LES WATCH YET. STILL ENOUGH            
 TIME FOR A SHORTER RANGE WATCH FROM THE MIDNIGHT SHIFT IF MODEL                
 GUIDANCE STARTS TO CONVERGE ON A COMMON SOLUTION. THIS DOES HAVE THE           
 POTENTIAL TO BE A MAJOR EVENT GIVEN STRONG THERMODYNAMICS...BUT ONLY           
 IF A DOMINANT BAND FORMS...AND THAT IS STILL QUITE UNCERTAIN.                  
 CP SURFACE HIGH BUILDS ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY LATER TUE NGT INTO WED           
 WITH CRASHING INVERSION HEIGHTS AND BACKING LOW LEVEL FLOW CUTTING             
 OFF ANY REMAINING LAKE EFFECT. SHOULD SEE A DRY PERIOD FOR WED AND             
 THU WITH A MODERATING TREND AS HEIGHTS RISE IN RESPONSE TO DIGGING             
 UPSTREAM TROUGH. VERY LITTLE CHANGE MADE TO CONTINUITY IN THE LATER            
 PERIODS WITH PRIMARY CONCERNS IN SHORT TERM HIGH IMPACT WEATHER.               
 STILL APPEARS THAT ONE OR SEVERAL CLIPPER TYPE SHORTWAVES WILL CROSS           
 THE GREAT LAKES STARTING AT THE END OF THE WEEK AND HAVE CONTINUED             
 WITH LOW CHANCE POPS...MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE               
 CWA. TEMPS WILL AVERAGE AROUND NORMAL FOR MUCH OF THE LONG TERM...             
 BUT THIS WILL FEEL COLD AFTER THE INCREDIBLE STRETCH OF WARM WEATHER           
 THE PAST MONTH.                                                                
 &&                                                                             
 .AVIATION...                                                                   
 LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING IN THE LOWER MS RIVER VLY THIS AFTN WILL               
 MOVE NORTHEAST INTO THE MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY BY 06Z...AND ACRS                   
 NORTHWEST OHIO BY 12Z. WITH DECENT UPR LVL DIVERGENCE PROVIDED BY              
 A STRONG JET...AND INCREASING STRONG LOW LVL MOIST ASCENT...PCPN               
 WILL ONCE AGAIN BECOME WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE FCST AREA AFTER 02Z               
 MONDAY. IT SHOULD REMAIN COLD ENOUGH AT THE SFC AT THE KSBN                    
 TERMINAL TO KEEP PCPN AS FZRA. TEMPS WILL REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING AT             
 KFWA...SO ONLY RAIN IS EXPECTED THERE FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.                 
 PCPN WILL TRANSITION OVER TO SOME -DZ OR -FZDZ AFTER 12Z AS DRY                
 SLOT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION...CAUSING A LACK OF ICE NUCLEATION.               
 CIGS WILL REMAIN IN THE IFR CATEGORY THROUGH THIS EVENING...THEN               
 DROP TO LIFR OVERNIGHT. VSBYS WILL DETERIORATE TO IFR OVERNIGHT AS             
 MODERATE PCPN IS EXPECTED.                                                     
 &&                                                                             
 .IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                            
 IN...FLOOD WATCH FROM 7 PM EST THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON           
      FOR INZ020-INZ022-INZ023-INZ024-INZ025-INZ026-INZ027-INZ032-              
      INZ033-INZ034.                                                            
      FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 12 PM EST /11 AM CST/ MONDAY FOR             
      INZ003-INZ004-INZ005-INZ006-INZ007.                                       
 MI...ICE STORM WARNING UNTIL 12 PM EST MONDAY FOR MIZ077-MIZ078-               
      MIZ079-MIZ080-MIZ081.                                                     
 OH...FLOOD WATCH FROM 7 PM EST THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON           
      FOR OHZ016-OHZ024-OHZ025.                                                 
      FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 12 PM EST MONDAY FOR OHZ001-OHZ002.          
 LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT EST UNTIL 7PM EST TUESDAY              
      FOR LMZ043-LMZ046.                                                        
 &&                                                                             
 $$                                                                             
 SHORT TERM/AVIATION...HICKMAN                                                  
 LONG TERM....HITCHCOCK                                                         
</pre> in                                                                       

 AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                       
 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA                                      
 105 AM EST SAT JAN 13 2007                                                     
 .AVIATION...                                                                   
 COLD FRONT HAD MOVED SOUTH OF FWA BY 06Z...WITH MUCH COLDER AIR                
 SPREADING IN FROM THE NORTH. PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE ENDING VERY               
 CLOSE TO THE TIME IT WILL BE COLD ENOUGH FOR SLEET AT SBN...SO HAVE            
 INCLUDED A BRIEF MENTION OF SLEET AT SBN. NEXT ROUND OF                        
 PRECIPITATION TONIGHT SHOULD STILL BE A CLOSE CALL BETWEEN                     
 LIQUID...FREEZING AND FROZEN...BUT FOR NOW WENT WITH LIGHT FREEZING            
 RAIN/SLEET AT SBN AND JUST RAIN AT FWA. CIGS SHOULD BE MAINLY IFR              
 THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.                                                        
 &&                                                                             
 .UPDATE...                                                                     
 AT 02Z...A COLD FRONT WAS LOCATED FROM SRN ONTARIO...FAR SE                    
 MICHIGAN...THEN IT EXTENDED SW INTO NE...CNTRL...AND SW INDIANA.               
 THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SAG THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FCST               
 AREA OVERNIGHT.                                                                
 UPR LVL DIVERGENCE IN ASSOCIATION WITH WEAK WX DISTURBANCES AND UPR            
 LVL JET DYNAMICS WILL TEAM UP WITH ISENTROPIC LIFT/OVERRUNNING OVER            
 THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONTAL BOUNDARY TONIGHT. HENCE...PCPN WILL BE              
 WIDESPREAD FOR MOST OF THE REGION.  LATEST RUC SOUNDINGS SUGGEST               
 THAT SOME SLEET MAY MIX IN ACRS THE NRN AND NWRN CWFA LATE TONIGHT             
 AS COLDER AIR IN THE LOW LVLS SLOWLY FILTERS SOUTHEAST.  HAVE MADE             
 SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE ZONES/GRIDS.  BELIEVE CHC/S FOR SNOW             
 ARE SLIM TONIGHT BASED ON LATEST MODEL SOUNDINGS...SO HAVE REMOVED             
 SNOW AND HAVE GONE WITH JUST A CHC OF SLEET.  HAVE ALSO MODIFIED               
 OVERNIGHT LOWS A TAD...WHICH WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 30S N AND NW            
 TO THE UPPER 30S SOUTHEAST.  TEMPERATURES WILL FALL TO AROUND 32               
 DEGREES IN THE N AND NW BY SATURDAY MORNING. HAVE OPTED TO LEAVE OUT           
 FREEZING RAIN CHC/S DUE TO THE BORDERLINE VALUE.  THERE COULD BE A             
 CHC OF FREEZING RAIN EARLY ON SATURDAY IF TEMPS DIP TO 31 DEGREES              
 BRIEFLY.  MIDNIGHT SHIFT SHOULD HAVE A BETTER HANDLE ON THIS                   
 POSSIBILITY AS THEY WATCH HOW FAR TEMPERATURES DROP OVERNIGHT.                 
 &&                                                                             
 .PREV DISCUSSION...                                                            
 SHORT TERM...                                                                  
 BETWEEN TONIGHT AND TOMORROW THE BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION IS              
 TONIGHT. THE SURFACE TROUGH IS IN THE AREA THROUGH TONIGHT AND WILL            
 BE PULLING AWAY SOME FROM THE CWA TOMORROW. EVEN TOMORROW THE                  
 MORNING HOURS HAVE A BETTER CHANCE THAN THE AFTERNOON HOURS DO. WITH           
 THE TROUGH SLIDING THROUGH THE SOUTHEASTERN HALF OF THE CWA THIS               
 EVENING AND JUST TO OUR EAST AND SOUTHEAST TONIGHT...THIS WILL GIVE            
 THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE CWA A BETTER CHANCE FOR PRECIP THAN THE               
 NORTHERN PART. ALSO THIS WILL CAUSE TEMPERATURE PROFILES TO BE                 
 COLDER IN THE NORTHERN PART THAN IN THE SOUTHERN PART AND MORE SO              
 NEAR THE SURFACE. THEREFORE AS TONIGHT WEARS ON FROM NORTH TO                  
 SOUTH...A MIX OF PRECIP HAS A CHANCE TO FORM. A LITTLE TRICKY TO SEE           
 IF SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE GOING TO GET COLD ENOUGH TONIGHT FOR               
 FREEZING RAIN TO COME INTO THE MIX IN OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES...BUT              
 DID NOT LOOK LIKE A BIG ENOUGH CHANCE TO MENTION IN THE FORECAST. IF           
 SURFACE TEMPERATURES START DROPPING OFF MORE THAN EXPECTED AND THE             
 SURFACE TROUGH MOVES FURTHER EAST AND SOUTH THAN EXPECTED...THEN               
 SOME LIGHT FREEZING RAIN IS POSSIBLE FOR LATE TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW            
 FOR OUR NORTHERN PART. BUT THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY IN HOW MUCH               
 COLD AIR IS GOING TO PENETRATE INTO THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA.              
 ANY FREEZING OR FROZEN TYPE PRECIP TO FALL TONIGHT OR TOMORROW IS              
 NOT EXPECTED TO AMOUNT TO AS MUCH AS THE SYSTEM NEXT WEEK IS                   
 LOOKING. LEFT TEMPERATURES ALONE FOR THE MOST PART EXCEPT TO DROP              
 THE NORTH BY A DEGREE FOR TOMORROW.                                            
 LONG TERM...                                                                   
 CDFNT DROPPING SE INTO THE AREA THIS AFTN WILL STALL OVER THE OH RVR           
 VALLEY ON SAT. DEEP TROF OVER WRN U.S. WILL CONT WSW-SW FLOW ALOFT             
 OVER OUR AREA. WK DISTURBANCES MOVG NE AHEAD OF THE MAIN TROF WILL             
 RESULT IN ONCL BACKING OF WINDS ALOFT AND ENHANCED OVER-RUNNING                
 POTENTIAL. TIMING OF THESE WK SHRTWV`S IS HARD TO PIN DOWN AT THIS             
 JUNCTURE AS MODELS NOT SURPRISINGLY ARE IN CONSIDERABLE DISAGREEMENT           
 ON A COUPLE OF SUCH WAVES SAT NGT AND SUND. THUS, LEFT POPS FOR SAT            
 NGT IN CHC CATEGORY FOR NOW AND CONTD WITH LOW QPF.                            
 OVERLAYING MSP SOUNDING WITH MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATES ALL MODELS              
 INITIALIZED THE ARCTIC AIRMASS TOO WARM BELOW 950MB AND NOT QUITE              
 WARM ENOUGH WITH THE WARM LAYER ALOFT AROUND 700MB. THUS, HEDGED               
 TOWARD A LITTLE WARMER AIR ALOFT AND COLDER AIR NEAR THE SFC FOR               
 PTYPE AND MIN/MAX CONSIDERATIONS THIS WEEKEND.                                 
 SGFNT PRECIP FROM THIS SCENARIO IS EXPECTED SUN AFTN-EVE AS STRONG             
 TROF LIFTS ENE ACROSS CENTRAL PLAINS ENHANCING OVER-RUNNING OF SFC             
 BOUNDARY. LEANED TOWARD GFS TIMING WHICH IS FASTER THAN NAM. STILL A           
 GOOD POTENTIAL FOR FREEZING RAIN IN OUR AREA WITH THIS PATTERN. HELD           
 OFF ON WATCH FOR NOW SINCE SGFNT PRECIP EXPECTED TO BEGIN LATE IN              
 4TH PD AT THE EARLIEST. HWVR, THERE IS POTENTIAL THAT WEAKER                   
 SHRTWV`S MOVG THROUGH THE AREA COULD NECESSITATE AN ADVISORY SOONER.           
 NAM/GFS CONSISTENT INDICATING DRY SLOT WILL PUNCH INTO THE AREA LATE           
 SUNDAY NGT BRINGING SGFNT PRECIP TO AN END WITH DEFORMATION ZONE               
 PRECIP STAYING TO THE NORTH OF THE CWA. NORMALLY THIS IS NOT A                 
 SCENARIO FAVORABLE FOR HEAVY SNOW, BUT WITH VERY MOIST AMS (700MB              
 MIXING RATIO AROUND 4G/KG SUN EVE) OVER-RUNNING THE ARCTIC BOUNDARY,           
 CAN`T RULE THIS OUT.                                                           
 SOME LINGERING LIGHT SNOW PSBL MONDAY AS UPPER TROF SHEARS OUT                 
 ACROSS THE GRTLKS. GOING CHC OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUES             
 FOR MON NGT-TUE NGT AS INSTABILITY EXPECTED TO BECOME EXTREME, HWVR,           
 INVERSION HEIGHTS AT THIS POINT LOOK RATHER LOW FOR SGFNT LAKE                 
 EFFECT SNOW. RIDGE EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA WED WITH ANOTHER           
 FRONT APPROACHING ON THU. THIS SHOULD BE A DRY PD BUT WITH PASSAGE             
 OF THE CDFNT WILL BRING A RENEWED CHC OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS              
 ALONG WITH COLDER TEMPS AGAIN FRI.                                             
 &&                                                                             
 .IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                            
 IN...NONE.                                                                     
 MI...NONE.                                                                     
 OH...NONE.                                                                     
 LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM EST FOR LMZ043-LMZ046.                    
 &&                                                                             
 $$                                                                             
 UPDATE...HICKMAN                                                               
 AVIATION...SKIPPER                                                             
 SHORT TERM...98                                                                
 LONG TERM....01                                                                
</pre> in                                                                       

 AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                       
 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA                                         
 926 PM CST SUN JAN 14 2007                                                     
 .UPDATE.../TONIGHT/                                                            
 LARGE AREA OF PCPN ASSOCIATED WITH WARM CONVEYOR BELT AND ISENTROPIC           
 LIFT HAS SHIFTED TO THE EAST OF THE CWA.  HOWEVER...LARGE                      
 DEFORMATION AREA WL CROSS THE STATE OVERNIGHT WITH LIGHT TO                    
 OCCASIONALLY MODERATE SNOW PERSISTING THROUGH DAYBREAK. THIS WL                
 PRODUCE ANOTHER INCH OR TWO OF SNOW IN MOST LOCATIONS AND WL LEAVE             
 ALL HEADLINES INTACT FOR NOW. HOWEVER...HAVE LOWERED OVERALL AMOUNTS           
 SLIGHTLY AS AMOUNTS ARE COMING ON THE LOW END AT THIS POINT.                   
 OTHERWISE...GRADIENT STILL TIGHTENS OVERNIGHT AND DO EXPECT SOME               
 WIND ISSUES AFTER MIDNIGHT AND ESPECIALLY TOWARD DAYBREAK.                     
 COGIL                                                                          
 &&                                                                             
 .SHORT TERM /MONDAY-TUES NIGHT/...                                             
 ONGOING WINTER STORM THE MAIN FOCUS TODAY. UPDATED HEADLINES ARE               
 OUT. IN SUMMARY...UPGRADED SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW ADVISORY IN                   
 NORTHERN IOWA TO A WINTER STORM WARNING FOR 6...POSSIBLY AS HIGH AS            
 9 INCHES OF SNOW...COMPOUNDED BY BLOWING SNOW OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY            
 MORNING. ALSO EXTENDED WARNING TO 9 AM MONDAY. THE SNOW AND BLOWING            
 SNOW ADVISORY AND WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAIN IN EFFECT TO THE              
 SOUTH...ALSO TO 9 AM MONDAY...WITH LESSER AMOUNTS OF 4-6 AND 3-4               
 INCHES...RESPECTIVELY.                                                         
 GFS/NAM/RUC ALL INITIALIZED FAIRLY CLOSELY AT 12Z...ALBEIT ABOUT 2             
 DEGREES TOO WARM AT 850MB...BUT AT 18Z WERE A BIT COOLER COMPARED TO           
 THE KDVN 18Z SPECIAL SOUNDING. MODEL QPF AND HEAVIER SNOW PLACEMENT            
 WERE ALSO FAIRLY SIMILAR FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE EVENT. A RECENT              
 CONCERN FOR THE ONGOING WARNING AREA WOULD BE DRY SLOT NOSING INTO             
 FAR NW IOWA ATTM...HOWEVER ALL MODELS CONTINUE TO BULLSEYE NW IOWA             
 WITH THE STRONGEST SYNOPTIC FORCING THROUGH THIS EVENING...AND                 
 THINKING IS ADDITIONAL AMOUNTS ON TOP OF 1 TO POSSIBLY 3 INCHES SO             
 FAR WOULD PUT AREA INTO WARNING CRITERIA. BANDED SNOW CROSS SECTIONS           
 AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS STILL INDICATE POTENTIAL FOR ENHANCED SNOWS             
 INTO THE EVENING WITH SATURATED DENDRITIC LAYER LIFT...NEGATIVE EPV            
 ABOVE SLOPING FRONTOGENESIS AREA...AND STEEP LAPSE RATE ALOFT FOR A            
 PERIOD LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AREAS TO THE SOUTH MAY ALSO            
 HAVE TO BE WATCHED...WITH A RECENT REPORT OF 4 INCHES IN NEMAHA IN             
 FAR SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA. LOCAL SNOW TOOLS PRODUCED RATIOS OF 10-14:1            
 SE TO CENTRAL...UP TO 14-16:1 NORTHWEST SECTIONS...AND THIS SEEMED             
 REASONABLE GIVEN CLIMO OF 12-13:1 AND MORE FAVORABLE DENDRITIC                 
 PROFILE NW. BLOWING SNOW STILL EXPECTED TO BE AN ISSUE OVERNIGHT               
 INTO MONDAY MORNING WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH AT TIMES. THEN TAPERED             
 SNOW TO FLURRIES MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING EAST. DIDN/T                
 FIDDLE WITH ONGOING TEMPERATURE FORECAST TOO MUCH...AS ADDITIONAL              
 ADJUSTMENTS WILL LIKELY BE NECESSARY DEPENDING ON HOW THE SNOW PANS            
 OUT.                                                                           
 .EXTENDED /WED-SUN/...                                                         
 ADDED SMALL POPS FOR THURSDAY IN THE NORTHERN SECTIONS WITH MODELS             
 ADVERTISING A WEAK COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION. DRY FORECAST                 
 OTHERWISE. ONLY LIMITED ANALYSIS OF EXTENDED PERIOD DUE TO NEAR TERM           
 WINTER STORM. HPC GUIDANCE TEMPS LOOK SUITABLY COLD GIVEN EXPECTED             
 SNOW COVER.                                                                    
 &&                                                                             
 .DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                            
 WINTER STORM WARNING ALONG AND NORTH OF A LINE FROM SAC CITY...TO              
 WEBSTER CITY...TO HAMPTON THROUGH 9 AM MONDAY.                                 
 SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW ADVISORY FOR THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA               
 EXCEPT THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH 9 AM MONDAY.                                      
 WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY SOUTHEAST OF A CORYDON...ALBIA...OSKALOOSA             
 LINE THROUGH 9 AM MONDAY.                                                      
 &&                                                                             
 $$                                                                             
 KINNEY                                                                         
</pre> ia                                                                       

 AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                       
 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA                                         
 338 PM CST SUN JAN 14 2007                                                     
 .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT-TUES NIGHT/...                                            
 ONGOING WINTER STORM THE MAIN FOCUS TODAY. UPDATED HEADLINES ARE               
 OUT. IN SUMMARY...UPGRADED SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW ADVISORY IN                   
 NORTHERN IOWA TO A WINTER STORM WARNING FOR 6...POSSIBLY AS HIGH AS            
 9 INCHES OF SNOW...COMPOUNDED BY BLOWING SNOW OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY            
 MORNING. ALSO EXTENDED WARNING TO 9 AM MONDAY. THE SNOW AND BLOWING            
 SNOW ADVISORY AND WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAIN IN EFFECT TO THE              
 SOUTH...ALSO TO 9 AM MONDAY...WITH LESSER AMOUNTS OF 4-6 AND 3-4               
 INCHES...RESPECTIVELY.                                                         
 GFS/NAM/RUC ALL INITIALIZED FAIRLY CLOSELY AT 12Z...ALBEIT ABOUT 2             
 DEGREES TOO WARM AT 850MB...BUT AT 18Z WERE A BIT COOLER COMPARED TO           
 THE KDVN 18Z SPECIAL SOUNDING. MODEL QPF AND HEAVIER SNOW PLACEMENT            
 WERE ALSO FAIRLY SIMILAR FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE EVENT. A RECENT              
 CONCERN FOR THE ONGOING WARNING AREA WOULD BE DRY SLOT NOSING INTO             
 FAR NW IOWA ATTM...HOWEVER ALL MODELS CONTINUE TO BULLSEYE NW IOWA             
 WITH THE STRONGEST SYNOPTIC FORCING THROUGH THIS EVENING...AND                 
 THINKING IS ADDITIONAL AMOUNTS ON TOP OF 1 TO POSSIBLY 3 INCHES SO             
 FAR WOULD PUT AREA INTO WARNING CRITERIA. BANDED SNOW CROSS SECTIONS           
 AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS STILL INDICATE POTENTIAL FOR ENHANCED SNOWS             
 INTO THE EVENING WITH SATURATED DENDRITIC LAYER LIFT...NEGATIVE EPV            
 ABOVE SLOPING FRONTOGENESIS AREA...AND STEEP LAPSE RATE ALOFT FOR A            
 PERIOD LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AREAS TO THE SOUTH MAY ALSO            
 HAVE TO BE WATCHED...WITH A RECENT REPORT OF 4 INCHES IN NEMAHA IN             
 FAR SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA. LOCAL SNOW TOOLS PRODUCED RATIOS OF 10-14:1            
 SE TO CENTRAL...UP TO 14-16:1 NORTHWEST SECTIONS...AND THIS SEEMED             
 REASONABLE GIVEN CLIMO OF 12-13:1 AND MORE FAVORABLE DENDRITIC                 
 PROFILE NW. BLOWING SNOW STILL EXPECTED TO BE AN ISSUE OVERNIGHT               
 INTO MONDAY MORNING WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH AT TIMES. THEN TAPERED             
 SNOW TO FLURRIES MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING EAST. DIDN/T                
 FIDDLE WITH ONGOING TEMPERATURE FORECAST TOO MUCH...AS ADDITIONAL              
 ADJUSTMENTS WILL LIKELY BE NECESSARY DEPENDING ON HOW THE SNOW PANS            
 OUT.                                                                           
 .EXTENDED /WED-SUN/...                                                         
 ADDED SMALL POPS FOR THURSDAY IN THE NORTHERN SECTIONS WITH MODELS             
 ADVERTISING A WEAK COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION. DRY FORECAST                 
 OTHERWISE. ONLY LIMITED ANALYSIS OF EXTENDED PERIOD DUE TO NEAR TERM           
 WINTER STORM. HPC GUIDANCE TEMPS LOOK SUITABLY COLD GIVEN EXPECTED             
 SNOW COVER.                                                                    
 &&                                                                             
 .DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                            
 WINTER STORM WARNING ALONG AND NORTH OF A LINE FROM SAC CITY...TO              
 WEBSTER CITY...TO HAMPTON THROUGH 9 AM MONDAY.                                 
 SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW ADVISORY FOR THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA               
 EXCEPT THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH 9 AM MONDAY.                                      
 WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY SOUTHEAST OF A CORYDON...ALBIA...OSKALOOSA             
 LINE THROUGH 9 AM MONDAY.                                                      
 &&                                                                             
 $$                                                                             
 KINNEY                                                                         
</pre> ia                                                                       

 AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED WWA SECTION                                 
 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS                                             
 1045 PM CST SAT JAN 13 2007                                                    
 .DISCUSSION...                                                                 
 WENT AHEAD AND REPLACED THE WATCH WITH ADVISORIES. WITH THE                    
 POSSIBILITY FOR A MIX OF SLEET AND SNOW...WENT WITH A WINTER                   
 WEATHER ADVISORY RUFFLY FROM EMPORIA TO HIAWATHA. SNOW IS EXPECTED             
 TO BE THE PRIMARY PRECIP TYPE ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL KS...SO HAVE                
 ISSUED A SNOW ADVISORY FOR THESE AREAS. THE WINTER STORM WARNING               
 REMAINS UNCHANGED FROM PREVIOUS SHIFTS.                                        
 &&                                                                             
 WOLTERS                                                                        
 .PREV DISCUSSION /907 PM CST SAT JAN 13 2007/...                               
 WILL UPDATE THE FORECAST SHORTLY FOR CURRENT CONDITIONS. FOR THE               
 MOST PART...PRECIP HAS ENDED ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA. THERE           
 ARE SOME SMALL BANDS OF VERY LIGHT PRECIP SEEN ON RADAR. IT IS HARD            
 TO TELL IF THE PRECIP FALLING IS LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE OR POSSIBLY            
 SNOW NEEDLES...ITS THAT LIGHT. THE LATEST RUC FORECAST WAS SHOWING             
 SOME VERY LIGHT ISENTROPIC LIFT WITHIN THE CLOUD. THINK THIS MAY BE            
 THE REASON FOR THE LIGHT PRECIP. NEVERTHELESS DO NOT ANTICIPATE ANY            
 ACCUMULATING PRECIP FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT SINCE LARGE SCALE                
 FORCING HAS LEFT THE AREA FOR THE TIME BEING.                                  
 MAIN QUESTION IS WHAT TO DO WITH THE WATCH. AM CONSIDERING REPLACING           
 THE WATCH WITH AN ADVISORY OF SOME SORT. THE 00Z NAM IS COMING IN              
 SHOWING A SIMILAR SOLUTION TO THE DAY TIME RUNS. AS THE BASE OF THE            
 UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ROTATES THROUGH THE SOUTHER ROCKIES AND INTO THE            
 WESTERN CENTRAL PLAINS...LARGE SCALE FORCING IS EXPECTED TO AFFECT             
 THE AREA ONCE AGAIN. HOWEVER THE FORCING DOES NOT LOOK TERRIBLY                
 IMPRESSIVE WITH THE UPPER WAVE SHEARING OUT AS IT MOVES INTO THE               
 PLAINS. WILL WAIT TO REPLACE THE WATCH AND PEEK AT THE 00Z GFS TO              
 SEE IF IT SHOWS SOMETHING DIFFERENT FROM THE EARLIER RUNS. IF THE              
 NAM IS CORRECT...LOOKS LIKE MAINLY SNOW WILL FALL ACROSS AREAS NORTH           
 AND WEST OF MHK WITH AROUND 2 INCHES POSSIBLE. ALONG THE TURNPIKE              
 WILL BE A LITTLE MORE PROBLEMATIC GIVEN FORECAST SOUNDINGS STILL               
 SHOWING A WARM NOSE AROUND 800MB THROUGH 21Z. WILL KEEP THE WINTER             
 STORM WARNING AS IS FOR THE TIME BEING...GIVEN THE POSSIBILITY FOR             
 DECENT SLEET ACCUMULATIONS ONCE AGAIN.                                         
 AVIATION WISE...EXPECT CURRENT CONDITIONS TO REMAIN RELATIVELY                 
 STABLE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. OBVIOUSLY THE LIGHT PRECIP SEEN           
 ON RADAR WILL CAUSE A PROBLEM FOR AIRCRAFT. THIS SHOULD BE SPOTTY              
 THOUGH AND CONFINED TO AREAS BELOW 4000FT. SFC VIS WILL DROP TO                
 AROUND 4SM IN THESE LIGHT BANDS WITH CEILINGS AROUND 800FT.                    
 OTHERWISE ANTICIPATE A SLIGHT IMPROVEMENT TO THE CEILINGS AROUND               
 1000FT AS VERY WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT BREAKS DOWN.                               
 &&                                                                             
 WOLTERS                                                                        
 .PREV DISCUSSION /340 PM CST SAT JAN 13 2007/...                               
 CURRENTLY...SLEET SHOWERS EXITING THE CWA TO THE EAST WITH SOME                
 LIGHT SNOW FILLING IN BEHIND. CONDITIONS HAVE IMPROVED ENOUGH TO               
 LIFT ADVISORY ALL AREAS...AND WILL LET IT GO WITH THE AFTERNOON                
 PACKAGE.                                                                       
 ANTICIPATING A LULL IN THE WEATHER FOR TONIGHT AS TODAYS SYSTEM                
 DEPARTS EAST AND UPPER TROF STILL LUMBERING INTO THE GREAT BASIN.              
 BASE OF THE MAIN TROF PROGGED TO MAKE IT INTO NORTHERN NM BY                   
 MORNING...EJECTING SHORTWAVES INTO SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS AT THAT TIME           
 AS WELL. GFS STRONGER WITH THESE FEATURES...AND WHILE SEVERAL WAVES            
 ARE SEEN OVER THE SW US IN THE WATER VAPOR...STILL DIFFICULT TO                
 DISCERN WHICH WILL MAKE IT HERE AND WHEN. CONSENSUS SEEMS TO BE THAT           
 BEST WINDOW FOR ACCUMULATING SNOWS IS NOW MAINLY IN THE 15Z-0Z                 
 TIMEFRAME. GUIDANCE NUMBERS FOR SNOW HAVE COME DOWN...AND NOT MUCH             
 INSTABILITY IN THE COLUMN. BUT WITH SOME FRONTOGENESIS...POT VORT              
 AND Q VECTOR CONVERGENCE STILL OCCURING OVER OUR AREA AT THIS                  
 TIME...WILL KEEP SOME ADVISORY ACCUMULATIONS IN THE FORECAST FOR               
 MUCH OF THE CWA. FAR SE COUNTIES WHERE WARNING IS IN EFFECT HAVE               
 ALREADY SEEN OVER AN INCH OF SLEET IN PLACES...AND WILL BE                     
 EXACERBATED BY SOME SNOW ACCUMULATION ON TOP OF THIS TOMORROW. WITH            
 PWS AROUND HALF AN INCH AND SNOW RATIOS LIKELY OVER 10/1 IN THE COLD           
 AIR...AM NOT READY TO DROP THE WATCH JUST YET...AND WILL TREND GRIDS           
 TOWARDS ADVISORY NUMBERS.                                                      
 MAIN UPPER LEVEL WAVE FINALLY EJECTS OUT THROUGH THE PLAINS AND                
 EXITS TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE CWA BY 12Z MONDAY...BUT NOT BEFORE               
 PRODUCING SOME LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE CWA...MAINLY DURING THE EVENING           
 ALONG AND NORTH OF I-70 AS DRIER AIR AND SUBSIDENCE INCREASE FROM              
 THE SOUTHWEST. ADDITIONAL AMOUNTS GENERALLY SHOULD BE FROM LESS THAN           
 HALF AN INCH SOUTH TO AN INCH TO AN INCH AND A HALF NORTHEAST CORNER           
 OF THE CWA. ALTHOUGH LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE COLDER...CLOUDS AND             
 INCREASING WINDS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM FALLING AS MUCH AS THEY           
 OTHERWISE WOULD...SO WILL KEEP GENERALLY IN THE 5 TO 12 DEGREE RANGE.          
 THE STRATUS ON MONDAY WILL THEN LINGER IN THE MORNING BUT START TO             
 BREAK UP BY AFTERNOON. STILL...WITH EXPECTED SNOW/ICE COVER...THIS             
 WILL LIMIT HIGHS TO THE TEENS.                                                 
 TUESDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE THE COLDEST NIGHT WITH DIMINISHING                     
 WINDS...DECREASING CLOUDS AND SNOW/ICE COVER. WILL GO WITH MOST                
 TEMPS NEAR ZERO FOR NOW...BUT DEPENDING ON SNOW/ICE DEPTHS...COULD             
 SEE TEMPS A FEW DEGREES COLDER. ALTHOUGH SUNSHINE SHOULD BE THE RULE           
 ON TUESDAY...MIXING WILL BE WEAK FOLLOWING VERY COLD MORNING                   
 LOWS...SO THIS WILL LIMIT HIGHS TO UPPER TEENS TO LOWER 20S. RETURN            
 FLOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE HIGH SHOULD THEN KEEP LOWS ABOVE ZERO             
 INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH MOST HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 20S.             
 WILL KEEP THE REST OF THE FCST DRY ON THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEKEND AS            
 THE GFS/ECMWF SEEMS TOO PROGRESSIVE AND TOO FAR EAST WITH CUTOFF LOW           
 COMING OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST U.S. WEDNESDAY. ALSO LOW CONFIDENCE WITH           
 THE ARRIVAL TIME OF THE NEXT SYSTEM BY SATURDAY.                               
 EITHER WAY...WITH THE SNOW/ICE COVER WILL SEE A "GRADUAL" MODERATION           
 IN TEMPS THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK INTO THE 30S THURSDAY AND                
 FRIDAY AND SOME LOWER 40S SOUTHERN CWA BY NEXT WEEKEND.                        
 &&                                                                             
 .TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                            
 WINTER STORM WARNING THROUGH 06Z MONDAY FOR COFFEY...FRANKLIN AND              
 ANDERSON COUNTIES.                                                             
 WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 16Z SUNDAY UNTIL 06Z MONDAY FOR LYON...           
 MORRIS...WABAUNSEE...OSAGE...SHAWNEE...DOUGLAS...JEFFERSON...JACKSON           
 AND BROWN COUNTIES.                                                            
 SNOW ADVISORY FROM 16Z SUNDAY UNTIL 06Z MONDAY FOR ALL OTHER                   
 COUNTIES.                                                                      
 &&                                                                             
 $$                                                                             
</pre> ks                                                                       

 AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                       
 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS                                             
 907 PM CST SAT JAN 13 2007                                                     
 .DISCUSSION...                                                                 
 WILL UPDATE THE FORECAST SHORTLY FOR CURRENT CONDITIONS. FOR THE               
 MOST PART...PRECIP HAS ENDED ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA. THERE           
 ARE SOME SMALL BANDS OF VERY LIGHT PRECIP SEEN ON RADAR. IT IS HARD            
 TO TELL IF THE PRECIP FALLING IS LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE OR POSSIBLY            
 SNOW NEEDLES...ITS THAT LIGHT. THE LATEST RUC FORECAST WAS SHOWING             
 SOME VERY LIGHT ISENTROPIC LIFT WITHIN THE CLOUD. THINK THIS MAY BE            
 THE REASON FOR THE LIGHT PRECIP. NEVERTHELESS DO NOT ANTICIPATE ANY            
 ACCUMULATING PRECIP FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT SINCE LARGE SCALE                
 FORCING HAS LEFT THE AREA FOR THE TIME BEING.                                  
 MAIN QUESTION IS WHAT TO DO WITH THE WATCH. AM CONSIDERING REPLACING           
 THE WATCH WITH AN ADVISORY OF SOME SORT. THE 00Z NAM IS COMING IN              
 SHOWING A SIMILAR SOLUTION TO THE DAY TIME RUNS. AS THE BASE OF THE            
 UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ROTATES THROUGH THE SOUTHER ROCKIES AND INTO THE            
 WESTERN CENTRAL PLAINS...LARGE SCALE FORCING IS EXPECTED TO AFFECT             
 THE AREA ONCE AGAIN. HOWEVER THE FORCING DOES NOT LOOK TERRIBLY                
 IMPRESSIVE WITH THE UPPER WAVE SHEARING OUT AS IT MOVES INTO THE               
 PLAINS. WILL WAIT TO REPLACE THE WATCH AND PEEK AT THE 00Z GFS TO              
 SEE IF IT SHOWS SOMETHING DIFFERENT FROM THE EARLIER RUNS. IF THE              
 NAM IS CORRECT...LOOKS LIKE MAINLY SNOW WILL FALL ACROSS AREAS NORTH           
 AND WEST OF MHK WITH AROUND 2 INCHES POSSIBLE. ALONG THE TURNPIKE              
 WILL BE A LITTLE MORE PROBLEMATIC GIVEN FORECAST SOUNDINGS STILL               
 SHOWING A WARM NOSE AROUND 800MB THROUGH 21Z. WILL KEEP THE WINTER             
 STORM WARNING AS IS FOR THE TIME BEING...GIVEN THE POSSIBILITY FOR             
 DECENT SLEET ACCUMULATIONS ONCE AGAIN.                                         
 AVIATION WISE...EXPECT CURRENT CONDITIONS TO REMAIN RELATIVELY                 
 STABLE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. OBVIOUSLY THE LIGHT PRECIP SEEN           
 ON RADAR WILL CAUSE A PROBLEM FOR AIRCRAFT. THIS SHOULD BE SPOTTY              
 THOUGH AND CONFINED TO AREAS BELOW 4000FT. SFC VIS WILL DROP TO                
 AROUND 4SM IN THESE LIGHT BANDS WITH CEILINGS AROUND 800FT.                    
 OTHERWISE ANTICIPATE A SLIGHT IMPROVEMENT TO THE CEILINGS AROUND               
 1000FT AS VERY WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT BREAKS DOWN.                               
 &&                                                                             
 WOLTERS                                                                        
 .PREV DISCUSSION /340 PM CST SAT JAN 13 2007/...                               
 CURRENTLY...SLEET SHOWERS EXITING THE CWA TO THE EAST WITH SOME                
 LIGHT SNOW FILLING IN BEHIND. CONDITIONS HAVE IMPROVED ENOUGH TO               
 LIFT ADVISORY ALL AREAS...AND WILL LET IT GO WITH THE AFTERNOON                
 PACKAGE.                                                                       
 ANTICIPATING A LULL IN THE WEATHER FOR TONIGHT AS TODAYS SYSTEM                
 DEPARTS EAST AND UPPER TROF STILL LUMBERING INTO THE GREAT BASIN.              
 BASE OF THE MAIN TROF PROGGED TO MAKE IT INTO NORTHERN NM BY                   
 MORNING...EJECTING SHORTWAVES INTO SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS AT THAT TIME           
 AS WELL. GFS STRONGER WITH THESE FEATURES...AND WHILE SEVERAL WAVES            
 ARE SEEN OVER THE SW US IN THE WATER VAPOR...STILL DIFFICULT TO                
 DISCERN WHICH WILL MAKE IT HERE AND WHEN. CONSENSUS SEEMS TO BE THAT           
 BEST WINDOW FOR ACCUMULATING SNOWS IS NOW MAINLY IN THE 15Z-0Z                 
 TIMEFRAME. GUIDANCE NUMBERS FOR SNOW HAVE COME DOWN...AND NOT MUCH             
 INSTABILITY IN THE COLUMN. BUT WITH SOME FRONTOGENESIS...POT VORT              
 AND Q VECTOR CONVERGENCE STILL OCCURING OVER OUR AREA AT THIS                  
 TIME...WILL KEEP SOME ADVISORY ACCUMULATIONS IN THE FORECAST FOR               
 MUCH OF THE CWA. FAR SE COUNTIES WHERE WARNING IS IN EFFECT HAVE               
 ALREADY SEEN OVER AN INCH OF SLEET IN PLACES...AND WILL BE                     
 EXACERBATED BY SOME SNOW ACCUMULATION ON TOP OF THIS TOMORROW. WITH            
 PWS AROUND HALF AN INCH AND SNOW RATIOS LIKELY OVER 10/1 IN THE COLD           
 AIR...AM NOT READY TO DROP THE WATCH JUST YET...AND WILL TREND GRIDS           
 TOWARDS ADVISORY NUMBERS.                                                      
 MAIN UPPER LEVEL WAVE FINALLY EJECTS OUT THROUGH THE PLAINS AND                
 EXITS TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE CWA BY 12Z MONDAY...BUT NOT BEFORE               
 PRODUCING SOME LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE CWA...MAINLY DURING THE EVENING           
 ALONG AND NORTH OF I-70 AS DRIER AIR AND SUBSIDENCE INCREASE FROM              
 THE SOUTHWEST. ADDITIONAL AMOUNTS GENERALLY SHOULD BE FROM LESS THAN           
 HALF AN INCH SOUTH TO AN INCH TO AN INCH AND A HALF NORTHEAST CORNER           
 OF THE CWA. ALTHOUGH LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE COLDER...CLOUDS AND             
 INCREASING WINDS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM FALLING AS MUCH AS THEY           
 OTHERWISE WOULD...SO WILL KEEP GENERALLY IN THE 5 TO 12 DEGREE RANGE.          
 THE STRATUS ON MONDAY WILL THEN LINGER IN THE MORNING BUT START TO             
 BREAK UP BY AFTERNOON. STILL...WITH EXPECTED SNOW/ICE COVER...THIS             
 WILL LIMIT HIGHS TO THE TEENS.                                                 
 TUESDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE THE COLDEST NIGHT WITH DIMINISHING                     
 WINDS...DECREASING CLOUDS AND SNOW/ICE COVER. WILL GO WITH MOST                
 TEMPS NEAR ZERO FOR NOW...BUT DEPENDING ON SNOW/ICE DEPTHS...COULD             
 SEE TEMPS A FEW DEGREES COLDER. ALTHOUGH SUNSHINE SHOULD BE THE RULE           
 ON TUESDAY...MIXING WILL BE WEAK FOLLOWING VERY COLD MORNING                   
 LOWS...SO THIS WILL LIMIT HIGHS TO UPPER TEENS TO LOWER 20S. RETURN            
 FLOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE HIGH SHOULD THEN KEEP LOWS ABOVE ZERO             
 INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH MOST HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 20S.             
 WILL KEEP THE REST OF THE FCST DRY ON THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEKEND AS            
 THE GFS/ECMWF SEEMS TOO PROGRESSIVE AND TOO FAR EAST WITH CUTOFF LOW           
 COMING OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST U.S. WEDNESDAY. ALSO LOW CONFIDENCE WITH           
 THE ARRIVAL TIME OF THE NEXT SYSTEM BY SATURDAY.                               
 EITHER WAY...WITH THE SNOW/ICE COVER WILL SEE A "GRADUAL" MODERATION           
 IN TEMPS THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK INTO THE 30S THURSDAY AND                
 FRIDAY AND SOME LOWER 40S SOUTHERN CWA BY NEXT WEEKEND.                        
 &&                                                                             
 .TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                            
 WINTER STORM WARNING THROUGH 06Z MONDAY FOR COFFEY...FRANKLIN AND              
 ANDERSON COUNTIES.                                                             
 WINTER STORM WATCH 12Z SUNDAY TO 06Z MONDAY FOR THE REMAINDER OF               
 THE CWA ALONG AND NORTHWEST OF INTERSTATE 35.                                  
 &&                                                                             
 $$                                                                             
</pre> ks                                                                       

 AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                       
 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS                                            
 1059 AM CST SAT JAN 13 2007                                                    
 .UPDATE...                                                                     
 CALLS MADE TO AREA OBSERVERS/SPOTTERS THIS MORNING INDICATE                    
 PRECIPITATION TYPE HAS BEEN PREDOMINATELY SLEET...MIXED WITH SNOW              
 GENERALLY NORTHWEST OF THE TURNPIKE. ACCUMULATIONS HAVE GENERALLY              
 BEEN AROUND 1/2 INCH...WITH ISOLATED 1 INCH AMOUNTS. DESPITE WARM              
 WEDGE AROUND BETWEEN 900-700MB...ENOUGH COLD AIR IS PRESENT BELOW              
 THE INVERSION TO REFREEZE THE RAIN DROPS INTO SLEET OVER SOUTHEAST             
 KANSAS. MAY STILL GET A BIT OF FREEZING RAIN MIXED WITH THE SLEET              
 OVER EXTREME SOUTHEAST KANSAS...BUT NOT ANTICIPATING MAJOR GLAZING             
 ISSUES DUE TO FREEZING RAIN.                                                   
 BATCH OF PRECIPITATION CURRENTLY PUSHING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA IS           
 ASSOCIATED WITH A SUBTLE SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS WESTERN OKLAHOMA.             
 THINKING THE MODERATE TO HEAVY SLEET WILL SLOWLY COME TO AN END FROM           
 WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AS THE AFTERNOON                         
 PROGRESSES...AS LIFT AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE PUSHES OFF TO THE                  
 EAST/NORTHEAST. HOWEVER...WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO GET VERY LIGHT               
 SLEET/SNOW DUE TO RESIDUAL WEAK LIFT AND COLD LOW-LEVEL                        
 TEMPERATURES. ANTICIPATING MAYBE ANOTHER 0.5-1.0 INCHES OF SLEET               
 ACCUMULATION THIS AFTERNOON GENERALLY EAST OF THE TURNPIKE.                    
 SO FAR WINTER STORM WARNING CRITERIA HAS BEEN HARD TO COME BY.                 
 HOWEVER...FOR CONSISTENCY WILL ALLOW THE WINTER STORM WARNING TO               
 CONTINUE UNTIL 6 PM SUNDAY AREAWIDE FOR THE TIME BEING.                        
 FOCUS THIS UPDATE HAS BEEN ON SHORT-TERM ISSUES. AN UPDATE ON THE              
 SNOW POTENTIAL FOR TONIGHT AND SUNDAY WILL BE ISSUED AROUND 3-4 PM.            
 KLEINSASSER                                                                    
 &&                                                                             
 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 720 AM CST SAT JAN 13 2007/                        
 UPDATE...                                                                      
 LATEST RADAR DATA SHOWS SOME IMPRESSIVE RETURNS OVER NORTHERN OKLAHOMA         
 MOVING NORTHEAST INTO SOUTHERN KANSAS...MOST LIKELY AREAS OF VERY              
 HEAVY SLEET. LOCAL 12Z RAB SOUNDINGS SUGGEST MAINLY SLEET FOR                  
 PRECIP TYPE ACROSS SOUTHERN KANSAS WITH A POSSIBLE CHANGE OVER TO              
 SNOW LATER IN THE DAY. IR SATELLITE IMAGERY ACTUALLY SHOWED A FEW              
 POCKETS OF WARMER TEMPS OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL                         
 KANSAS EARLY THIS MORNING...THIS CREATED A VOID OF ICE CRYSTALS IN             
 THE THERMAL PROFILE AND RESULTANT PRECIP WAS FREEZING                          
 DRIZZLE...HOWEVER WE EXPECT MORE SLEET AND SNOW DURING THE DAY AS              
 COOLER CLOUD TOPS MOVE ACROSS THE REGION. SLEET ACCUMULATION IS                
 LIKELY ACROSS SOUTHERN KANSAS WITH SOME LOCATIONS WITNESSING AN                
 INCH OR MORE OF SLEET.                                                         
 MEANWHILE...A BUBBLE OF WARMER AIR ALOFT WAS PRESENT OVER CENTRAL              
 OKLAHOMA EXTENDING NORTHWARD INTO SOUTHEAST KANSAS. THIS COULD                 
 YIELD ANOTHER EPISODE OF FREEZING RAIN ACROSS SOUTHEAST KANSAS. AS             
 A RESULT...WE WILL INSERT A FREEZING RAIN/SLEET MIX FOR TODAY OVER             
 THAT AREA.                                                                     
 JAKUB                                                                          
 PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 508 AM CST SAT JAN 13 2007/                         
 UPDATE...                                                                      
 WE JUST SENT OUT A QUICK UPDATE TO INTRODUCE SLEET AND SNOW MIX                
 THROUGH ABOUT 14Z. JUST MADE A COUPLE OF CALLS TO HARPER AND RUSSELL           
 COUNTIES AND THEY ARE REPORTING SLEET THAT IS COVERING THE GROUND.             
 THIS PRECIPITATION APPEARS TO BE ON THE LEADING EDGE OF THE WAVE               
 MOVING ACROSS THE TEXAS PANHANDLE. LATEST IR SATELLITE LOOP IS                 
 SHOWING HIGHER TOPS MOVING ACROSS THAT REGION WHICH IS AN INDICATION           
 OF MORE GROWTH IN THE DENDRITE REGION WHICH WOULD SUPPORT MORE IN              
 THE WAY OF SNOW. AS A RESULT...IT STILL LOOKS LIKE WE COULD GET SOME           
 DECENT SNOW LATE THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON.                              
 COX                                                                            
 DISCUSSION...                                                                  
 WE JUST SENT OUT A QUICK UPDATE TO INTRODUCE SLEET AND SNOW MIX                
 THROUGH ABOUT 14Z. JUST MADE A COUPLE OF CALLS TO HARPER AND RUSSELL           
 COUNTIES AND THEY ARE REPORTING SLEET THAT IS COVERING THE GROUND.             
 THIS PRECIPITATION APPEARS TO BE ON THE LEADING EDGE OF THE WAVE               
 MOVING ACROSS THE TEXAS PANHANDLE. LATEST IR SATELLITE LOOP IS                 
 SHOWING HIGHER TOPS MOVING ACROSS THAT REGION WHICH IS AN INDICATION           
 OF MORE GROWTH IN THE DENDRITE REGION WHICH WOULD SUPPORT MORE IN              
 THE WAY OF SNOW. AS A RESULT...IT STILL LOOKS LIKE WE COULD GET SOME           
 DECENT SNOW LATE THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON.                              
 PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 331 AM CST SAT JAN 13 2007/                         
 DISCUSSION...                                                                  
 THE MAIN CONCERN FOR TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY WILL BE PRECIPITATION TYPE           
 AND HOW MUCH SNOW OR ICE WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF            
 DAYS.                                                                          
 TODAY:                                                                         
 LATEST IR LOOP AND SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWING A FAIRLY STRONG WAVE               
 MOVING THROUGH THE TEXAS PANHANDLE WITH EVEN SOME LIGHTNING STRIKES            
 ASSOCIATED WITH IT. THIS WAVE WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTHEAST THIS             
 MORNING AND INCREASE THE ISENTROPIC ASCENT MARKEDLY ACROSS THE                 
 FORECAST AREA TODAY. THE 00Z GFS/RUC SEEM TO HANDLE THE STRENGTH OF            
 THIS WAVE BASED ON THE IR AND WATER VAPOR LOOPS. AS A RESULT...WE              
 ARE FAVORING THESE SOLUTIONS FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME DECENT SNOW            
 AND SLEET ACCUMULATIONS TODAY. WE ARE MAKING SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO THE           
 PRECIPITATION TYPE OVER THE ENTIRE AREA SINCE IT APPEARS LIKE MOST             
 OF BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES AROUND -10 DEG C WHICH IS SUPPORTIVE            
 OF PRECIPITATION REFREEZING BEFORE IT REACHES THE GROUND.                      
 THEREFORE...WE ARE LOOKING AT MORE OF A SNOW OR SLEET POTENTIAL                
 ACROSS SOUTHEAST KANSAS TODAY. THE MAIN CONCERN RIGHT NOW...IS SOUTH           
 CENTRAL KANSAS WHERE THEY COULD SEE MORE IN THE WAY OF SNOW WITH               
 ACCUMULATIONS UP TO 4 INCHES BY LATE AFTERNOON. THE GFS DOES SHOW              
 SOME COOLING AROUND 700MB DUE TO LATENT HEAT PROCESS...BUT WE                  
 BELIEVE IT MAY NOT BE COOLING THAT COLUMN ENOUGH DUE TO SUCH STRONG            
 LIFT IN THAT REGION. THE COBB TECHNIQUE IS ALSO SUPPORTIVE OF THIS.            
 MEANWHILE...FOLKS IN CENTRAL KANSAS COULD SEE AT LEAST 2 INCHES OF             
 SNOW. WE WENT AHEAD AND UPGRADED THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY TO A              
 WINTER STORM WARNING AND CONTINUED IT THROUGH SUNDAY SINCE WE ARE              
 ANTICIPATING THIS WHOLE EVENT TO PRODUCE 6 INCHES OF SNOW OR MORE              
 OVER MOST OF CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. THE WINTER STORM                
 WARNING STILL LOOKS GOOD FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA SINCE THE               
 SLEET AND SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE SIGNIFICANT.                              
 TONIGHT-SUNDAY:                                                                
 THE MODELS ARE ADVERTISING ANOTHER BREAK IN THE PRECIPITATION THIS             
 EVENING...BEFORE THE MAIN UPPER TROF MOVES INTO THE WESTERN                    
 SECTIONS OF OUR FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT. THIS TROF SHOULD BRING                
 ANOTHER ROUND OF SNOW AND SLEET TO THE AREA WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF            
 SNOW ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS WHERE ANOTHER 2 TO 5              
 INCHES OF SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE BY SUNDAY EVENING WITH THE HIGHEST             
 AMOUNTS EXPECTED TO BE IN CENTRAL KANSAS WHERE THEY WILL BE CLOSEST            
 TO THE MID LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE. THERE WILL ALSO BE SOME AID FROM             
 THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE UPPER LEVEL JET WHICH WILL INCREASE           
 THE ISENTROPIC ASCENT WITH ADDITIONAL LIFT FROM MID LEVEL                      
 FRONTOGENETICAL CIRCULATIONS. WE MAY END UP INCREASING SNOW AMOUNTS            
 EVEN MORE IN LATER FORECASTS.                                                  
 SUNDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY:                                                        
 WE SHOULD BEGIN TO SEE THE SNOW MOVING OUT OF THE PICTURE SUNDAY               
 NIGHT. THEN THE ARCTIC HIGH WILL BEGIN TO SETTLE OVER US DURING THE            
 NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. WE LOWERED HIGHS AND LOWS SEVERAL DEGREES                 
 ESPECIALLY ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY WHERE THE SURFACE RIDGE BEGINS TO             
 PARK OVER THE AREA. WITH LOTS OF SNOW COVER AND NORTHERLY FLOW OVER            
 US...WE WILL BE HARD PRESSED TO MAKE INTO THE 20S WITH LOWS POSSIBLY           
 DROPPING BELOW ZERO.                                                           
 COX                                                                            
 &&                                                                             
 .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                               
 WICHITA-KICT    17  12  19  10 / 100  70 100  40                               
 HUTCHINSON      15  10  17   8 / 100  70 100  40                               
 NEWTON          16  11  18   9 / 100  50 100  40                               
 ELDORADO        17  12  18  10 / 100  50 100  40                               
 WINFIELD-KWLD   19  14  19  12 / 100  70 100  30                               
 RUSSELL         13   8  14   5 / 100  70 100  50                               
 GREAT BEND      13   8  16   6 / 100  80 100  50                               
 SALINA          14   9  17   7 / 100  40 100  50                               
 MCPHERSON       15   9  17   7 / 100  50 100  40                               
 COFFEYVILLE     23  17  23  16 / 100  60 100  30                               
 CHANUTE         21  16  21  14 / 100  60 100  40                               
 IOLA            21  15  21  13 / 100  60 100  40                               
 PARSONS-KPPF    22  17  22  15 / 100  60 100  30                               
 &&                                                                             
 .ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                            
 WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM CST SUNDAY FOR KSZ032-033-                     
 047>053-067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100.                                       
 &&                                                                             
 $$                                                                             
</pre> ks                                                                       

 AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                       
 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS                                            
 720 AM CST SAT JAN 13 2007                                                     
 .UPDATE...                                                                     
 LATEST RADAR DATA SHOWS SOME IMPRESSIVE RETURNS OVER NORTHERN OKLAHOMA         
 MOVING NORTHEAST INTO SOUTHERN KANSAS...MOST LIKELY AREAS OF VERY              
 HEAVY SLEET. LOCAL 12Z RAOB SOUNDINGS SUGGEST MAINLY SLEET FOR                 
 PRECIP TYPE ACROSS SOUTHERN KANSAS WITH A POSSIBLE CHANGE OVER TO              
 SNOW LATER IN THE DAY. IR SATELLITE IMAGERY ACTUALLY SHOWED A FEW              
 POCKETS OF WARMER TEMPS OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL                         
 KANSAS EARLY THIS MORNING...THIS CREATED A VOID OF ICE CRYSTALS IN             
 THE THERMAL PROFILE AND RESULTANT PRECIP WAS FREEZING                          
 DRIZZLE...HOWEVER WE EXPECT MORE SLEET AND SNOW DURING THE DAY AS              
 COOLER CLOUD TOPS MOVE ACROSS THE REGION. SLEET ACCUMULATION IS                
 LIKELY ACROSS SOUTHERN KANSAS WITH SOME LOCATIONS WITNESSING AN                
 INCH OR MORE OF SLEET.                                                         
 MEANWHILE...A BUBBLE OF WARMER AIR ALOFT WAS PRESENT OVER CENTRAL              
 OKLAHOMA EXTENDING NORTHWARD INTO SOUTHEAST KANSAS. THIS COULD                 
 YIELD ANOTHER EPISODE OF FREEZING RAIN ACROSS SOUTHEAST KANSAS. AS             
 A RESULT...WE WILL INSERT A FREEZING RAIN/SLEET MIX FOR TODAY OVER             
 THAT AREA.                                                                     
 JAKUB                                                                          
 &&                                                                             
 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 508 AM CST SAT JAN 13 2007/                        
 UPDATE...                                                                      
 WE JUST SENT OUT A QUICK UPDATE TO INTRODUCE SLEET AND SNOW MIX                
 THROUGH ABOUT 14Z. JUST MADE A COUPLE OF CALLS TO HARPER AND RUSSELL           
 COUNTIES AND THEY ARE REPORTING SLEET THAT IS COVERING THE GROUND.             
 THIS PRECIPITATION APPEARS TO BE ON THE LEADING EDGE OF THE WAVE               
 MOVING ACROSS THE TEXAS PANHANDLE. LATEST IR SATELLITE LOOP IS                 
 SHOWING HIGHER TOPS MOVING ACROSS THAT REGION WHICH IS AN INDICATION           
 OF MORE GROWTH IN THE DENDRITE REGION WHICH WOULD SUPPORT MORE IN              
 THE WAY OF SNOW. AS A RESULT...IT STILL LOOKS LIKE WE COULD GET SOME           
 DECENT SNOW LATE THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON.                              
 COX                                                                            
 DISCUSSION...                                                                  
 WE JUST SENT OUT A QUICK UPDATE TO INTRODUCE SLEET AND SNOW MIX                
 THROUGH ABOUT 14Z. JUST MADE A COUPLE OF CALLS TO HARPER AND RUSSELL           
 COUNTIES AND THEY ARE REPORTING SLEET THAT IS COVERING THE GROUND.             
 THIS PRECIPITATION APPEARS TO BE ON THE LEADING EDGE OF THE WAVE               
 MOVING ACROSS THE TEXAS PANHANDLE. LATEST IR SATELLITE LOOP IS                 
 SHOWING HIGHER TOPS MOVING ACROSS THAT REGION WHICH IS AN INDICATION           
 OF MORE GROWTH IN THE DENDRITE REGION WHICH WOULD SUPPORT MORE IN              
 THE WAY OF SNOW. AS A RESULT...IT STILL LOOKS LIKE WE COULD GET SOME           
 DECENT SNOW LATE THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON.                              
 PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 331 AM CST SAT JAN 13 2007/                         
 DISCUSSION...                                                                  
 THE MAIN CONCERN FOR TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY WILL BE PRECIPITATION TYPE           
 AND HOW MUCH SNOW OR ICE WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF            
 DAYS.                                                                          
 TODAY:                                                                         
 LATEST IR LOOP AND SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWING A FAIRLY STRONG WAVE               
 MOVING THROUGH THE TEXAS PANHANDLE WITH EVEN SOME LIGHTNING STRIKES            
 ASSOCIATED WITH IT. THIS WAVE WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTHEAST THIS             
 MORNING AND INCREASE THE ISENTROPIC ASCENT MARKEDLY ACROSS THE                 
 FORECAST AREA TODAY. THE 00Z GFS/RUC SEEM TO HANDLE THE STRENGTH OF            
 THIS WAVE BASED ON THE IR AND WATER VAPOR LOOPS. AS A RESULT...WE              
 ARE FAVORING THESE SOLUTIONS FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME DECENT SNOW            
 AND SLEET ACCUMULATIONS TODAY. WE ARE MAKING SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO THE           
 PRECIPITATION TYPE OVER THE ENTIRE AREA SINCE IT APPEARS LIKE MOST             
 OF BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES AROUND -10 DEG C WHICH IS SUPPORTIVE            
 OF PRECIPITATION REFREEZING BEFORE IT REACHES THE GROUND.                      
 THEREFORE...WE ARE LOOKING AT MORE OF A SNOW OR SLEET POTENTIAL                
 ACROSS SOUTHEAST KANSAS TODAY. THE MAIN CONCERN RIGHT NOW...IS SOUTH           
 CENTRAL KANSAS WHERE THEY COULD SEE MORE IN THE WAY OF SNOW WITH               
 ACCUMULATIONS UP TO 4 INCHES BY LATE AFTERNOON. THE GFS DOES SHOW              
 SOME COOLING AROUND 700MB DUE TO LATENT HEAT PROCESS...BUT WE                  
 BELIEVE IT MAY NOT BE COOLING THAT COLUMN ENOUGH DUE TO SUCH STRONG            
 LIFT IN THAT REGION. THE COBB TECHNIQUE IS ALSO SUPPORTIVE OF THIS.            
 MEANWHILE...FOLKS IN CENTRAL KANSAS COULD SEE AT LEAST 2 INCHES OF             
 SNOW. WE WENT AHEAD AND UPGRADED THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY TO A              
 WINTER STORM WARNING AND CONTINUED IT THROUGH SUNDAY SINCE WE ARE              
 ANTICIPATING THIS WHOLE EVENT TO PRODUCE 6 INCHES OF SNOW OR MORE              
 OVER MOST OF CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. THE WINTER STORM                
 WARNING STILL LOOKS GOOD FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA SINCE THE               
 SLEET AND SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE SIGNIFICANT.                              
 TONIGHT-SUNDAY:                                                                
 THE MODELS ARE ADVERTISING ANOTHER BREAK IN THE PRECIPITATION THIS             
 EVENING...BEFORE THE MAIN UPPER TROF MOVES INTO THE WESTERN                    
 SECTIONS OF OUR FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT. THIS TROF SHOULD BRING                
 ANOTHER ROUND OF SNOW AND SLEET TO THE AREA WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF            
 SNOW ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS WHERE ANOTHER 2 TO 5              
 INCHES OF SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE BY SUNDAY EVENING WITH THE HIGHEST             
 AMOUNTS EXPECTED TO BE IN CENTRAL KANSAS WHERE THEY WILL BE CLOSEST            
 TO THE MID LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE. THERE WILL ALSO BE SOME AID FROM             
 THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE UPPER LEVEL JET WHICH WILL INCREASE           
 THE ISENTROPIC ASCENT WITH ADDITIONAL LIFT FROM MID LEVEL                      
 FRONTOGENETICAL CIRCULATIONS. WE MAY END UP INCREASING SNOW AMOUNTS            
 EVEN MORE IN LATER FORECASTS.                                                  
 SUNDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY:                                                        
 WE SHOULD BEGIN TO SEE THE SNOW MOVING OUT OF THE PICTURE SUNDAY               
 NIGHT. THEN THE ARCTIC HIGH WILL BEGIN TO SETTLE OVER US DURING THE            
 NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. WE LOWERED HIGHS AND LOWS SEVERAL DEGREES                 
 ESPECIALLY ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY WHERE THE SURFACE RIDGE BEGINS TO             
 PARK OVER THE AREA. WITH LOTS OF SNOW COVER AND NORTHERLY FLOW OVER            
 US...WE WILL BE HARD PRESSED TO MAKE INTO THE 20S WITH LOWS POSSIBLY           
 DROPPING BELOW ZERO.                                                           
 COX                                                                            
 &&                                                                             
 .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                               
 WICHITA-KICT    20  15  19  10 / 100  70 100  40                               
 HUTCHINSON      18  14  17   8 / 100  70 100  40                               
 NEWTON          19  14  18   9 / 100  50 100  40                               
 ELDORADO        20  14  18  10 / 100  50 100  40                               
 WINFIELD-KWLD   20  15  19  12 / 100  70 100  30                               
 RUSSELL         15  10  14   5 / 100  70 100  50                               
 GREAT BEND      17  12  16   6 / 100  80 100  50                               
 SALINA          18  14  17   7 / 100  40 100  50                               
 MCPHERSON       18  14  17   7 / 100  50 100  40                               
 COFFEYVILLE     22  19  23  16 / 100  60 100  30                               
 CHANUTE         21  17  21  14 / 100  60 100  40                               
 IOLA            21  17  21  13 / 100  60 100  40                               
 PARSONS-KPPF    21  19  22  15 / 100  60 100  30                               
 &&                                                                             
 .ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                            
 WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM CST SUNDAY FOR KSZ032-033-                     
 047>053-067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100.                                       
 &&                                                                             
 $$                                                                             
</pre> ks                                                                       

 AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                       
 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS                                            
 508 AM CST SAT JAN 13 2007                                                     
 .UPDATE...                                                                     
 WE JUST SENT OUT A QUICK UPDATE TO INTRODUCE SLEET AND SNOW MIX                
 THROUGH ABOUT 14Z. JUST MADE A COUPLE OF CALLS TO HARPER AND RUSSELL           
 COUNTIES AND THEY ARE REPORTING SLEET THAT IS COVERING THE GROUND.             
 THIS PRECIPITATION APPEARS TO BE ON THE LEADING EDGE OF THE WAVE               
 MOVING ACROSS THE TEXAS PANHANDLE. LATEST IR SATELLITE LOOP IS                 
 SHOWING HIGHER TOPS MOVING ACROSS THAT REGION WHICH IS AN INDICATION           
 OF MORE GROWTH IN THE DENDRITE REGION WHICH WOULD SUPPORT MORE IN              
 THE WAY OF SNOW. AS A RESULT...IT STILL LOOKS LIKE WE COULD GET SOME           
 DECENT SNOW LATE THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON.                              
 COX                                                                            
 &&                                                                             
 .DISCUSSION...                                                                 
 WE JUST SENT OUT A QUICK UPDATE TO INTRODUCE SLEET AND SNOW MIX                
 THROUGH ABOUT 14Z. JUST MADE A COUPLE OF CALLS TO HARPER AND RUSSELL           
 COUNTIES AND THEY ARE REPORTING SLEET THAT IS COVERING THE GROUND.             
 THIS PRECIPITATION APPEARS TO BE ON THE LEADING EDGE OF THE WAVE               
 MOVING ACROSS THE TEXAS PANHANDLE. LATEST IR SATELLITE LOOP IS                 
 SHOWING HIGHER TOPS MOVING ACROSS THAT REGION WHICH IS AN INDICATION           
 OF MORE GROWTH IN THE DENDRITE REGION WHICH WOULD SUPPORT MORE IN              
 THE WAY OF SNOW. AS A RESULT...IT STILL LOOKS LIKE WE COULD GET SOME           
 DECENT SNOW LATE THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON.                              
 &&                                                                             
 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 331 AM CST SAT JAN 13 2007/                        
 DISCUSSION...                                                                  
 THE MAIN CONCERN FOR TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY WILL BE PRECIPITATION TYPE           
 AND HOW MUCH SNOW OR ICE WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF            
 DAYS.                                                                          
 TODAY:                                                                         
 LATEST IR LOOP AND SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWING A FAIRLY STRONG WAVE               
 MOVING THROUGH THE TEXAS PANHANDLE WITH EVEN SOME LIGHTNING STRIKES            
 ASSOCIATED WITH IT. THIS WAVE WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTHEAST THIS             
 MORNING AND INCREASE THE ISENTROPIC ASCENT MARKEDLY ACROSS THE                 
 FORECAST AREA TODAY. THE 00Z GFS/RUC SEEM TO HANDLE THE STRENGTH OF            
 THIS WAVE BASED ON THE IR AND WATER VAPOR LOOPS. AS A RESULT...WE              
 ARE FAVORING THESE SOLUTIONS FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME DECENT SNOW            
 AND SLEET ACCUMULATIONS TODAY. WE ARE MAKING SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO THE           
 PRECIPITATION TYPE OVER THE ENTIRE AREA SINCE IT APPEARS LIKE MOST             
 OF BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES AROUND -10 DEG C WHICH IS SUPPORTIVE            
 OF PRECIPITATION REFREEZING BEFORE IT REACHES THE GROUND.                      
 THEREFORE...WE ARE LOOKING AT MORE OF A SNOW OR SLEET POTENTIAL                
 ACROSS SOUTHEAST KANSAS TODAY. THE MAIN CONCERN RIGHT NOW...IS SOUTH           
 CENTRAL KANSAS WHERE THEY COULD SEE MORE IN THE WAY OF SNOW WITH               
 ACCUMULATIONS UP TO 4 INCHES BY LATE AFTERNOON. THE GFS DOES SHOW              
 SOME COOLING AROUND 700MB DUE TO LATENT HEAT PROCESS...BUT WE                  
 BELIEVE IT MAY NOT BE COOLING THAT COLUMN ENOUGH DUE TO SUCH STRONG            
 LIFT IN THAT REGION. THE COBB TECHNIQUE IS ALSO SUPPORTIVE OF THIS.            
 MEANWHILE...FOLKS IN CENTRAL KANSAS COULD SEE AT LEAST 2 INCHES OF             
 SNOW. WE WENT AHEAD AND UPGRADED THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY TO A              
 WINTER STORM WARNING AND CONTINUED IT THROUGH SUNDAY SINCE WE ARE              
 ANTICIPATING THIS WHOLE EVENT TO PRODUCE 6 INCHES OF SNOW OR MORE              
 OVER MOST OF CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. THE WINTER STORM                
 WARNING STILL LOOKS GOOD FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA SINCE THE               
 SLEET AND SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE SIGNIFICANT.                              
 TONIGHT-SUNDAY:                                                                
 THE MODELS ARE ADVERTISING ANOTHER BREAK IN THE PRECIPITATION THIS             
 EVENING...BEFORE THE MAIN UPPER TROF MOVES INTO THE WESTERN                    
 SECTIONS OF OUR FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT. THIS TROF SHOULD BRING                
 ANOTHER ROUND OF SNOW AND SLEET TO THE AREA WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF            
 SNOW ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS WHERE ANOTHER 2 TO 5              
 INCHES OF SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE BY SUNDAY EVENING WITH THE HIGHEST             
 AMOUNTS EXPECTED TO BE IN CENTRAL KANSAS WHERE THEY WILL BE CLOSEST            
 TO THE MID LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE. THERE WILL ALSO BE SOME AID FROM             
 THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE UPPER LEVEL JET WHICH WILL INCREASE           
 THE ISENTROPIC ASCENT WITH ADDITIONAL LIFT FROM MID LEVEL                      
 FRONTOGENETICAL CIRCULATIONS. WE MAY END UP INCREASING SNOW AMOUNTS            
 EVEN MORE IN LATER FORECASTS.                                                  
 SUNDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY:                                                        
 WE SHOULD BEGIN TO SEE THE SNOW MOVING OUT OF THE PICTURE SUNDAY               
 NIGHT. THEN THE ARCTIC HIGH WILL BEGIN TO SETTLE OVER US DURING THE            
 NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. WE LOWERED HIGHS AND LOWS SEVERAL DEGREES                 
 ESPECIALLY ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY WHERE THE SURFACE RIDGE BEGINS TO             
 PARK OVER THE AREA. WITH LOTS OF SNOW COVER AND NORTHERLY FLOW OVER            
 US...WE WILL BE HARD PRESSED TO MAKE INTO THE 20S WITH LOWS POSSIBLY           
 DROPPING BELOW ZERO.                                                           
 COX                                                                            
 &&                                                                             
 .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                               
 WICHITA-KICT    20  15  19  10 / 100  70 100  40                               
 HUTCHINSON      18  14  17   8 / 100  70 100  40                               
 NEWTON          19  14  18   9 / 100  80 100  40                               
 ELDORADO        20  14  18  10 / 100  90 100  40                               
 WINFIELD-KWLD   20  15  19  12 / 100  80 100  30                               
 RUSSELL         15  10  14   5 / 100  70 100  50                               
 GREAT BEND      17  12  16   6 / 100  80 100  50                               
 SALINA          18  14  17   7 / 100  80 100  50                               
 MCPHERSON       18  14  17   7 / 100  70 100  40                               
 COFFEYVILLE     22  19  23  16 / 100 100 100  30                               
 CHANUTE         21  17  21  14 / 100 100 100  40                               
 IOLA            21  17  21  13 / 100 100 100  40                               
 PARSONS-KPPF    21  19  22  15 / 100 100 100  30                               
 &&                                                                             
 .ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                            
 WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM CST SUNDAY FOR KSZ032-033-                     
 047>053-067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100.                                       
 &&                                                                             
 $$                                                                             
</pre> ks                                                                       

 AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                       
 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS                                            
 331 AM CST SAT JAN 13 2007                                                     
 .DISCUSSION...                                                                 
 THE MAIN CONCERN FOR TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY WILL BE PRECIPITATION TYPE           
 AND HOW MUCH SNOW OR ICE WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF            
 DAYS.                                                                          
 TODAY:                                                                         
 LATEST IR LOOP AND SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWING A FAIRLY STRONG WAVE               
 MOVING THROUGH THE TEXAS PANHANDLE WITH EVEN SOME LIGHTNING STRIKES            
 ASSOCIATED WITH IT. THIS WAVE WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTHEAST THIS             
 MORNING AND INCREASE THE ISENTROPIC ASCENT MARKEDLY ACROSS THE                 
 FORECAST AREA TODAY. THE 00Z GFS/RUC SEEM TO HANDLE THE STRENGTH OF            
 THIS WAVE BASED ON THE IR AND WATER VAPOR LOOPS. AS A RESULT...WE              
 ARE FAVORING THESE SOLUTIONS FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME DECENT SNOW            
 AND SLEET ACCUMULATIONS TODAY. WE ARE MAKING SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO THE           
 PRECIPITATION TYPE OVER THE ENTIRE AREA SINCE IT APPEARS LIKE MOST             
 OF BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES AROUND -10 DEG C WHICH IS SUPPORTIVE            
 OF PRECIPITATION REFREEZING BEFORE IT REACHES THE GROUND.                      
 THEREFORE...WE ARE LOOKING AT MORE OF A SNOW OR SLEET POTENTIAL                
 ACROSS SOUTHEAST KANSAS TODAY. THE MAIN CONCERN RIGHT NOW...IS SOUTH           
 CENTRAL KANSAS WHERE THEY COULD SEE MORE IN THE WAY OF SNOW WITH               
 ACCUMULATIONS UP TO 4 INCHES BY LATE AFTERNOON. THE GFS DOES SHOW              
 SOME COOLING AROUND 700MB DUE TO LATENT HEAT PROCESS...BUT WE                  
 BELIEVE IT MAY NOT BE COOLING THAT COLUMN ENOUGH DUE TO SUCH STRONG            
 LIFT IN THAT REGION. THE COBB TECHNIQUE IS ALSO SUPPORTIVE OF THIS.            
 MEANWHILE...FOLKS IN CENTRAL KANSAS COULD SEE AT LEAST 2 INCHES OF             
 SNOW. WE WENT AHEAD AND UPGRADED THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY TO A              
 WINTER STORM WARNING AND CONTINUED IT THROUGH SUNDAY SINCE WE ARE              
 ANTICIPATING THIS WHOLE EVENT TO PRODUCE 6 INCHES OF SNOW OR MORE              
 OVER MOST OF CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. THE WINTER STORM                
 WARNING STILL LOOKS GOOD FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA SINCE THE               
 SLEET AND SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE SIGNIFICANT.                              
 TONIGHT-SUNDAY:                                                                
 THE MODELS ARE ADVERTISING ANOTHER BREAK IN THE PRECIPITATION THIS             
 EVENING...BEFORE THE MAIN UPPER TROF MOVES INTO THE WESTERN                    
 SECTIONS OF OUR FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT. THIS TROF SHOULD BRING                
 ANOTHER ROUND OF SNOW AND SLEET TO THE AREA WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF            
 SNOW ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS WHERE ANOTHER 2 TO 5              
 INCHES OF SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE BY SUNDAY EVENING WITH THE HIGHEST             
 AMOUNTS EXPECTED TO BE IN CENTRAL KANSAS WHERE THEY WILL BE CLOSEST            
 TO THE MID LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE. THERE WILL ALSO BE SOME AID FROM             
 THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE UPPER LEVEL JET WHICH WILL INCREASE           
 THE ISENTROPIC ASCENT WITH ADDITIONAL LIFT FROM MID LEVEL                      
 FRONTOGENETICAL CIRCULATIONS. WE MAY END UP INCREASING SNOW AMOUNTS            
 EVEN MORE IN LATER FORECASTS.                                                  
 SUNDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY:                                                        
 WE SHOULD BEGIN TO SEE THE SNOW MOVING OUT OF THE PICTURE SUNDAY               
 NIGHT. THEN THE ARCTIC HIGH WILL BEGIN TO SETTLE OVER US DURING THE            
 NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. WE LOWERED HIGHS AND LOWS SEVERAL DEGREES                 
 ESPECIALLY ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY WHERE THE SURFACE RIDGE BEGINS TO             
 PARK OVER THE AREA. WITH LOTS OF SNOW COVER AND NORTHERLY FLOW OVER            
 US...WE WILL BE HARD PRESSED TO MAKE INTO THE 20S WITH LOWS POSSIBLY           
 DROPPING BELOW ZERO.                                                           
 COX                                                                            
 &&                                                                             
 .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                               
 WICHITA-KICT    20  15  19  10 / 100  70 100  40                               
 HUTCHINSON      18  14  17   8 / 100  70 100  40                               
 NEWTON          19  14  18   9 / 100  80 100  40                               
 ELDORADO        20  14  18  10 / 100  90 100  40                               
 WINFIELD-KWLD   20  15  19  12 / 100  80 100  30                               
 RUSSELL         15  10  14   5 / 100  70 100  50                               
 GREAT BEND      17  12  16   6 / 100  80 100  50                               
 SALINA          18  14  17   7 / 100  80 100  50                               
 MCPHERSON       18  14  17   7 / 100  70 100  40                               
 COFFEYVILLE     22  19  23  16 / 100 100 100  30                               
 CHANUTE         21  17  21  14 / 100 100 100  40                               
 IOLA            21  17  21  13 / 100 100 100  40                               
 PARSONS-KPPF    21  19  22  15 / 100 100 100  30                               
 &&                                                                             
 .ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                            
 WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM CST SUNDAY FOR KSZ032-033-                     
 047>053-067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100.                                       
 &&                                                                             
 $$                                                                             
</pre> ks                                                                       

 AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                       
 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY                                            
 1111 AM EST SUN JAN 14 2007                                                    
 .SHORT TERM.../TODAY/...UPDATED                                                
 MAIN CHANGES TO THE FORECAST FOR TODAY WAS TO LOWER POPS...AND RAISE           
 TEMPERATURES. TEMPERATURES WERE RUNNING IN THE MID 60S ALREADY IN THE          
 SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE CWA...TAPERING TO THE UPPER 50S IN THE NORTH.          
 MORNING RADIOSONDE SOUNDINGS WOULD YIELD HIGH TEMPS AROUND 70 IN THE           
 SOUTH...WITH LOWER TO MID 60S IN THE NORTH. THESE WILL LIKELY NEAR             
 RECORD VALUES IN THE NORTH...AND EXCEED THEM IN THE SOUTH. THE RECORD          
 HIGH TODAY AT JKL IS 68...AND 64 AT LOZ. MUCH OF THE PRECIP HAS MOVED          
 NORTH OF THE CWA AS THE QUASI STATIONARY FRONT OSCILLATES BACK NORTH           
 AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING WAVE. WENT WITH LIKELY POPS ACROSS THE                 
 EXTREME NORTH FOR THE AFTERNOON. WENT WITH LOW CHANCE POPS FOR MOST            
 OF THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA. IN THE SOUTHEAST...WENT WITH A SLIGHT            
 CHANCE. ALL MODELS SHOW A LULL IN THE PRECIP TODAY. WILL KEEP FLOOD            
 WATCH GOING TODAY. EVEN WITH A LULL IN THE PRECIP...STREAMS AND                
 CREEKS ARE RUNNING HIGH IN THE WATCH AREA. ANY ADDITIONAL PRECIP               
 DURING THE AFTERNOON COULD SEND THESE TO NEAR BANK FULL OR ABOVE. THE          
 BEST CHANCE FOR FLOODING WILL BE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. AFTERNOON QPF            
 SHOULD RANGE FROM NEAR ZERO IN THE SOUTH...TO NEAR 0.20 IN THE NORTH.          
 SURFACE FRONT IS CURRENTLY RUNNING FROM JUST NORTH OF CVG...TO PAH.            
 MOST OF THE PRECIP TODAY WILL BE FOCUSED NEAR THE FRONT. NO OTHER              
 CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE FORECAST ATTM. THE EARLIER MORNING                    
 DISCUSSION IS BELOW.                                                           
 /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/                                                      
 FRONT SHOULD EVENTUALLY MAKE ITS EASTWARD PUSH TONIGHT...AS A STRONG           
 SHORT WAVE EJECTS OUT OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. WITH STRONG HIGH                 
 PRESSURE STILL SITTING OF THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES...FRONT WILL          
 BE SLOW TO EXIT REGION. ANTICIPATING THAT FRONT WONT MOVE EAST OF JKL          
 CWA UNTIL SOMETIME MONDAY NIGHT. LEFT IN FLOOD WATCH FOR NORTHWESTERN          
 COUNTIES DUE TO PERSISTANT RAINS THERE. SOUTHERN HALF OF CWA HADNT             
 SEEN NEARLY AS MUCH RAIN AS THE NORTHWEST...SO FLOODING IS NOT MUCH            
 OF A CONCERN.                                                                  
 WINDS AND DEWPOINTS WERE ALREADY IN GOOD SHAPE WITH ONLY A FEW MINOR           
 TWEAKS MADE BASED UPON LATEST MODEL RUNS AND MOS GUIDANCE. MADE A              
 FEW CHANGES TO SKY COVER FOR TONIGHT...MAINLY TO REFLECT SLOWER                
 EASTWARD PROGRESS OF FRONT. POP FORECAST ALSO MODIFIED QUITE A                 
 BIT...WITH LOWER POPS INTRODUCED TO SOUTHERN HALF OF CWA AND A MUCH            
 SLOWER ONSET OF MAIN PRECIPITATION EVENT. LOOKING FOR MAIN PUSH OF             
 RAIN TO MOVE THROUGH THE CWA BEGINNING LATER TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY            
 NIGHT. SOME AREAS IN THE NORTHERN PORTION OF CWA COULD RECEIVE A               
 COUPLE OF INCHES OF RAIN OUT THIS NEXT ROUND OF PRECIP. EVERYWHERE             
 ELSE SHOULD RECEIVE LESS THAN AN INCH. COULD ALSO SEE SNOW SHOWERS             
 LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...AS THE COLDEST AIR OF THE WINTER              
 SEASON BEGINS TO FILTER INTO THE AREA BEHIND A DEPARTING COLD FRONT.           
 FOR TEMPERATURES...WENT WITH A BLEND OF MAV/MET MOS ACROSS THE                 
 BOARD. WENT BELOW MOS FOR DAYTIME HIGHS...DUE TO EXTENSIVE CLOUD               
 COVER...AND A BIT WARMER THAN MOS FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT              
 AND MONDAY NIGHT. WENT VERY CLOSE TO MEXMOS NUMBERS FOR WEDNESDAYS             
 HIGHS. DEPENDING ON AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER IN PLACE...A FEW AREAS               
 COULD BE A BIT COOLER THAN MOS.                                                
 .LONG TERM.../WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/                                      
 MODELS SOLUTIONS FOR THE END OF THE WEEK HAVE CHANGED FROM THE                 
 PREVIOUS RUNS. GFS BRINGS MOISTURE...AND A SURFACE WAVE...UP FROM              
 THE GULF OF MEXICO ON FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. ECMWF HAS ALSO TRENDED             
 FURTHER NORTH WITH THIS SYSTEM. DGEX AND NOGAPS KEEPS THIS FURTHER             
 SOUTH. ALL MODELS SHOW AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT FOR LATER FRIDAY.             
 INTRODUCED CHANCE POPS FOR FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WITH ALL OF THIS IN            
 MIND. ATTM...THINK THE COLD FRONT WILL LIKELY HAVE ENOUGH MOISTURE             
 TO AT LEAST WARRANT CHANCE POPS FOR NOW. PRECIP TYPE IS IN                     
 QUESTION...WITH MARGINAL TEMPERATURES AT ALL LEVELS. FOR NOW...WENT            
 WITH A MENTION OF RAIN AND SNOW. COLDER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE               
 AREA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH.               
 THERE IS STILL UNCERTAINTY IN THE LATER PORTION OF THE EXTENDED...SO           
 THE FORECAST WILL LIKELY NEED TO BE FINE TUNED AS TIME GOES ON.                
 &&                                                                             
 .AVIATION.../12Z TO 12Z/                                                       
 FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLED JUST NORTHWEST OF THE AREA CONTINUES TO               
 SEND WAVES OF SHOWERS NORTH OF INTERSTATE 64. NO REAL REASON FOR THE           
 FRONT TO PUSH SOUTH...AND IN FACT IT WILL LIKELY WAFFLE BACK NORTH             
 SOME TODAY AS LOW PRESSURE FORMS OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY             
 AND THEN HEADS NORTH. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN AREA TAF SITES REMAINING           
 VFR THROUGH THE DAY. ONE WRINKLE IN THIS THEORY IS A CONVECTIVELY              
 INDUCED VORTICITY MAXIMUM WHICH SHOWS UP ON WATER VAPOR SATELLITE              
 IMAGERY OVER MISSISSIPPI. RUC...AND TO SOME EXTENT THE NAM...PICK UP           
 ON THIS FEATURE AND MOVE IT NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA THIS                     
 AFTERNOON. THIS MAY PROVIDE ENOUGH LIFT FOR SOME SHOWERS...BUT WILL            
 MAINTAIN VFR CONDITIONS FOR NOW.                                               
 CONDITIONS SHOULD FINALLY DETERIORATE LATER TONIGHT AS THE SURFACE             
 WAVE MOVES NORTHEAST ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE STATE. HAVE                
 DELAYED ONSET OF MVFR CIGS/VSBYS A FEW HOURS FROM EARLIER THINKING             
 AS LATEST GUIDANCE IS A TOUCH SLOWER AND FARTHER WEST WITH THE                 
 SURFACE LOW. WINDS WILL ALSO BECOME GUSTY AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH SOME             
 BORDERLINE LLWS AS MODELS DEVELOP A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET IN EXCESS             
 OF 40 KT AROUND 2K FT AGL AND ABOVE.                                           
 &&                                                                             
 .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                            
 FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON FOR KYZ044-050>052-058>060-               
 104-106-108.                                                                   
 &&                                                                             
 $$                                                                             
 SHORT TERM...WJM/AR                                                            
 LONG TERM...WJM                                                                
 AVIATION...ABE                                                                 
</pre> ky                                                                       

 AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                       
 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY                                         
 1032 AM EST SUN JAN 14 2007                                                    
 .MORNING UPDATE...                                                             
 QUASI STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS STILL DRAPED ACROSS THE AREA              
 THIS MORNING.  LOTS OF CLOUDS AND SEVERAL AREAS OF LIGHT                       
 PRECIPITATION WERE NOTED ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING.  GENERAL              
 DOWNWARD TREND IN PRECIPITATION HAS BEEN NOTED AND THIS WILL LIKELY            
 CONTINUE THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON AS EARLY MORNING SFC WAVE                 
 CONTINUES TO MOVE NE AND AWAY FROM THE REGION.                                 
 FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON...LOOKS LIKE           
 WE`LL SEE A SHORT LULL IN THE ACTION AS WE WILL BE IN BETWEEN SFC              
 WAVES.  AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS           
 THE REGION WITH BEST PRECIP CHANCES ALONG AND NORTH OF A LINE FROM             
 ALLEN COUNTY TO LINCOLN COUNTY.  THOSE FAR SE COUNTIES MAY STAY                
 FAIRLY DRY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.  AS FOR TEMPERATURES...WE WILL               
 CONTINUE TO SEE A DECENT GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION.  AFTERNOON                
 HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S WILL BE SEEN IN SOUTHERN INDIANA WITH            
 60S ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL AND THE             
 BLUEGRASS REGION OF KY.  62-66 DEGREE READINGS WILL BE POSSIBLE                
 ACROSS THE SE THIRD OF THE REGION.  CURRENT FCST HAS THIS WELL IN              
 HAND AND ONLY SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPS WILL BE NEEDED.                  
 GENERAL CONSENSUS OF 06Z AND EARLY 12Z MODEL DATA SUGGEST NEXT WAVE            
 TO MOVE INTO THE REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.  LIGHT TO             
 MODERATE RAIN WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION FROM WEST TO EAST TONIGHT.            
 AXIS OF HIGHEST PRECIPITATION AGAIN LOOKS TO BE ALONG THE OHIO RIVER           
 WITH THE HIGHEST QPF IN OUR WEST CENTRAL SECTIONS (SOUTH OF THE OHIO           
 AND WEST OF I-65).  THEREFORE...WILL ALLOW POPS TO RAPIDLY INCREASE            
 FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS.                             
 HYDRO ISSUES...PRECIP AMOUNTS FROM THE PAST 24 HOURS HAVE BEEN                 
 BETWEEN 0.75 AND A LITTLE OVER ONE INCH.  THIS HAS RESULTED IN RISES           
 ON AREA RIVERS...BUT AS A WHOLE...THINGS HAVE BEEN OKAY SO FAR.                
 GROUND SATURATION HAS NOW BEEN REACHED OVER MUCH OF THE REGION AND             
 FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO DROP.  THUS...WITH ADDITIONAL                
 RAINFALL LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...WE COULD START SEEING               
 SOME HYDRO ISSUES IN OUR WESTERN COUNTIES.  THERE IS SOME CONCERN              
 THAT THE FLOODING AND HYDRO ISSUES MAY NOT BE REALIZED IN THE SE               
 SECTIONS OF THE FA.  HOWEVER...THE 06Z GFS SOLUTIONS DO BRING DECENT           
 QPF AMOUNTS INTO THE AREA LATE TONIGHT AND MONDAY.  THEREFORE...WE             
 MAY NEED TO EXTEND THE FLOOD WATCH IN TIME THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.             
 DECISIONS ON THE FLOOD WATCH WILL BE MADE DURING THE AFTERNOON                 
 PACKAGE AS FULL 12Z MODEL DATA WILL BE AVAILABLE.                              
 AS FOR RIVER IMPACTS...WITH THE RAIN THATS ALREADY FALLEN AND                  
 EXPECTED QPF FOR TONIGHT...OUR OHIO RIVER POINTS STILL LOOK TO GO              
 INTO MINOR FLOOD IN THE NEXT FEW DAYS.  WE`RE ALSO WATCHING THE                
 ROLLING FOR RIVER AND GREEN RIVERS IN KY AS EXPECTED QPF WILL PUSH             
 THEM INTO MINOR FLOODING AS WELL.                                              
 UPDATED FCST SUITE AND PRODUCTS WILL BE AVAILABLE BY 1130 AM EST.              
 -MJ                                                                            
 PREVIOUS FCST DISCUSSION...                                                    
 .SHORT TERM (TODAY AND TONIGHT)...                                             
 CURRENTLY...A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT IS ALIGNED ROUGHLY FROM SOUTH             
 OF CINCINNATI...TO LOUISVILLE...TO MEMPHIS. SFC LOW PRESSURE                   
 WAVES RIDING ALONG THIS FRONT AND AMPLE MOISTURE HAVE BEEN                     
 RESPONSIBLE FOR THE RAINFALL OVER THE PAST 1-2 DAYS. RAINFALL                  
 TOTALS ACROSS THE CWA OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS HAVE RANGED FROM                  
 AROUND A TENTH OF AN INCH ACROSS THE SERN CWA TO ROUGHLY THREE-                
 QUARTERS OF AN INCH ACROSS THE WNW. ANOTHER SFC WAVE OVER WRN TN               
 IS HELPING PUMP MOISTURE NORTHWARD ALONG THE FRONT INTO OUR WRN                
 CWA ATTM. THIS WILL BE THE FIRST OF TWO MAIN WAVES OF MOD-TO-HEAVY             
 RAINFALL FOR THE CWA.                                                          
 BASED OFF THE 00Z NAM (WHICH HAS THE BEST HANDLE ON CURRENT RADAR              
 IMAGERY)...THE TN SFC WAVE WILL RIDE ALONG THE FRONT WHICH WILL BE             
 NEARLY PARALLEL TO THE OHIO RIVER. THUS THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL IS               
 EXPECTED ALONG AND AROUND THE OHIO RIVER THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS             
 AND PERHAPS INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. BOTH THE NAM AND RUC               
 (AND WRF) THINK THAT OUR SERN CWA COULD GET BY TODAY WITH ONLY A               
 FEW LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS. HAVE BACKED OFF ON POPS DOWN THERE TO                  
 ACCOUNT FOR THIS TREND. EVEN THOUGHT OF CANCELING THE WATCH                    
 ACROSS OUR FAR SERN CWA...BUT WE MAY SEE ENOUGH PRECIP WITH THE                
 SECOND WAVE TO JUSTIFY IT. SOMETHING THE NEXT SHIFT WILL CERTAINLY             
 HAVE TO CONSIDER THOUGH. WELL...THE FIRST WAVE OF POTENTIALLY HEAVY            
 RAIN IS CURRENTLY CAUSING MINOR FLOODING PROBLEMS IN PAH`S                     
 CWA...BUT OTHER THAN SOME HEAVY RAIN AT TIMES AND STANDING WATER               
 IN LOW-LYING AREAS...IT SHOULD NOT POSE A FLOOD THREAT YET. RAIN               
 TOTALS AFTER THIS FIRST WAVE COULD RANGE FROM A HALF INCH UP TO                
 OVER AN INCH OF RAINFALL BY MIDDAY.                                            
 OTHER THAN OFF AND ON RAIN...THE NEXT MAIN WAVE OF PRECIP WILL                 
 COME THROUGH LATE TONIGHT AS THE MAIN SFC LOW RIDES UP ALONG THE               
 FRONT TONIGHT. THIS SHOULD SUPPORT THE BEST CHANCE AT FLOODING                 
 RAINS...WITH AID FROM THE RIGHT-ENTRANCE REGION OF 120-KT UPPER                
 JET AND STRONG LLJ OF 60KTS. THUS WE COULD SEE ADDITIONAL RAINFALL             
 AMOUNTS OF ANOTHER ONE TO MAYBE TWO INCHES. DO NOT SEE CONVECTION              
 BEING A THREAT AS NAM AND GFS SFC AND ELEVATED INSTABILITY IS NON-             
 EXISTENT FROM THE 00Z RUNS. THUS WILL REMOVE THUNDER WORDING.                  
 DESPITE LACK OF CONVECTION...THINK RAINFALL TOTALS COULD RANGE                 
 FROM 2-3 INCHES...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS. THIS COULD LEAD TO              
 MINOR FLOODING...WITH THE BEST CHANCE OCCURRING FOR SRN IN AND NRN             
 KY LATE TONIGHT WITH THE SECOND WAVE OF PRECIP. THUS...FLOOD WATCH             
 STILL SEEMS WARRANTED AND AM ACTUALLY INCLINED TO EXTEND IT TO 12Z             
 MONDAY. MAY DEFER THIS TO DAY SHIFT THOUGH.                                    
 FOR AVIATION CONCERNS...OTHER THAN VARIABLE LIFR CIGS AND                      
 VIS`S...WILL HAVE LLWS TONIGHT WITH STRONG 850MB JET.                          
 WILL HAVE QUITE THE TEMP GRADIENT FOR HIGHS TODAY...WITH LOW 60S               
 SE TO AROUND 50 NW. ADDITIONALLY...WINDS MAY BE GUSTY TODAY AND                
 TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SRN AND SERN CWA WITH GUSTS AROUND             
 20 MPH OR SO POSSIBLE.                                                         
 AL                                                                             
 .LONG TERM (MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...                                        
 MONDAY AND TUESDAY...                                                          
 AT THE BEGINNING OF THIS PERIOD WE FIND AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE PARKED            
 OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO AND FLORIDA WITH A TROUGH WORKING              
 ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THE LAST WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE             
 ALONG THE ARCTIC FRONT WILL MOVE FROM THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY ON ITS             
 WAY TO THE NORTHEAST COAST. AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP                
 ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE DAY MONDAY. IN ITS WAKE A                  
 NORTHERLY FLOW WILL BRING MORE WINTER LIKE TEMPERATURES INTO THE               
 LOWER OHIO VALLEY. PRECIPITATION (HEAVY AT TIMES ACROSS THE                    
 SOUTHEAST MONDAY MORNING) WILL END AS THE COLD AIR ARRIVES ALTHOUGH            
 THERE MAY BE SOME RAIN AND SNOW MIXED ACROSS SOUTHERN INDIANA MONDAY           
 AFTERNOON. COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE MONDAY NIGHT INTO                  
 TUESDAY AND THE MODELS HINT AT SOME MOISTURE FROM LAKE MICHIGAN                
 DROPPING SOUTH INTO THE REGION. WE WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION FLURRIES           
 MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.                                                     
 TEMPERATURES AT THE BEGINNING OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD (12Z) MONDAY             
 WILL RANGE FROM AROUND 40 OVER THE NORTHWEST PORTION OF THE                    
 FORECAST AREA TO THE UPPER 50S ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST. TEMPERATURES              
 WILL FALL THROUGH THE DAY. NORMAL LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE MID AND              
 UPPER 20S MONDAY NIGHT WILL FEEL VERY COLD COMPARED TO THE RECENT              
 WARM SPELL. TUESDAYS HIGHS WILL REACH THE MID 30S WITH LOWS                    
 TUESDAY NIGHT FALLING INTO THE UPPER TEENS AND LOW 20S. --JA                   
 WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...                                                  
 MORE OR LESS OF A CONSENSUS FOR A SPLIT FLOW PATTERN SHAPING UP                
 FOR THIS PERIOD. THE NORTHERLY BRANCH LOOKS TO BE THE STRONGEST                
 AND THE CONTROLLING WEATHER FEATURE FOR OUR REGION. ONE OR TWO                 
 SYSTEMS ROTATING ESE ACROSS SRN CANADA INTO THE NORTHEASTERN U.S.              
 DURING THIS TIME FRAME WOULD BRING BURSTS OF REINFORCING COLDER                
 AND DRY AIR INTO THE REGION. ALL IN ALL...WE AGREE WITH THE HPC                
 TRENDS FOR A MUCH NEEDED DRY PERIOD WITH TEMPS NEAR OR ONLY A FEW              
 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.                                                          
 --21                                                                           
 &&                                                                             
 .LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                            
 KY...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR KYZ023>043-045>049-053>057-          
      061>067-070>078-081-082.                                                  
 IN...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR INZ076>079-083-084-089>092.          
 &&                                                                             
 $$                                                                             
</pre> ky                                                                       

 AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                       
 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY                                            
 640 AM EST SUN JAN 14 2007                                                     
 .SHORT TERM.../TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY/                                          
 WENT WITH GFS SOLUTION FOR SHORT TERM. BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS...              
 SLOWED DOWN EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF FRONT BY A FEW HOURS...CONFINING           
 HIGHEST PRECIP CHANCES TO NORTHWEST COUNTIES OF CWA THIS MORNING.              
 FRONT SHOULD EVENTUALLY MAKE ITS EASTWARD PUSH LATER THIS AFTERNOON            
 INTO TONIGHT...AS A STRONG SHORT WAVE EJECTS OUT OF THE SOUTHERN               
 PLAINS. WITH STRONG HIGH PRESSURE STILL SITTING OF THE SOUTHEASTERN            
 UNITED STATES...FRONT WILL BE SLOW TO EXIT REGION. ANTICIPATING THAT           
 FRONT WONT MOVE EAST OF JKL CWA UNTIL SOMETIME MONDAY NIGHT. LEFT IN           
 FLOOD WATCH FOR NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES DUE TO PERSISTANT RAINS THERE.           
 SOUTHERN HALF OF CWA HADNT SEEN NEARLY AS MUCH RAIN AS THE                     
 NORTHWEST...SO FLOODING IS NOT MUCH OF A CONCERN.                              
 WINDS AND DEWPOINTS WERE ALREADY IN GOOD SHAPE WITH ONLY A FEW MINOR           
 TWEAKS MADE BASED UPON LATEST MODEL RUNS AND MOS GUIDANCE. MADE A              
 FEW CHANGES TO SKY COVER FOR THE TODAY AND TONIGHT...MAINLY TO                 
 REFLECT SLOWER EASTWARD PROGRESS OF FRONT. POP FORECAST ALSO                   
 MODIFIED QUITE A BIT...WITH LOWER POPS INTRODUCED TO SOUTHERN HALF             
 OF CWA AND A MUCH SLOWER ONSET OF MAIN PRECIPITATION EVENT. LOOKING            
 FOR MAIN PUSH OF RAIN TO MOVE THROUGH THE CWA BEGINNING LATER                  
 TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. SOME AREAS IN THE NORTHERN PORTION OF            
 CWA COULD RECEIVE A COUPLE OF INCHES OF RAIN OUT THIS NEXT ROUND OF            
 PRECIP. EVERYWHERE ELSE SHOULD RECEIVE LESS THAN AN INCH. COULD ALSO           
 SEE SNOW SHOWERS LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...AS THE COLDEST               
 AIR OF THE WINTER SEASON BEGINS TO FILTER INTO THE AREA BEHIND A               
 DEPARTING COLD FRONT.                                                          
 FOR TEMPERATURES...WENT WITH A BLEND OF MAV/MET MOS ACROSS THE                 
 BOARD. WENT BELOW MOS FOR DAYTIME HIGHS...DUE TO EXTENSIVE CLOUD               
 COVER...AND A BIT WARMER THAN MOS FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT              
 AND MONDAY NIGHT. WENT VERY CLOSE TO MEXMOS NUMBERS FOR WEDNESDAYS             
 HIGHS. DEPENDING ON AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER IN PLACE...A FEW AREAS               
 COULD BE A BIT COOLER THAN MOS.                                                
 .LONG TERM.../WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/                                        
 MODELS SOLUTIONS FOR THE END OF THE WEEK HAVE CHANGED FROM THE                 
 PREVIOUS RUNS. GFS BRINGS MOISTURE...AND A SURFACE WAVE...UP FROM              
 THE GULF OF MEXICO ON FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. ECMWF HAS ALSO TRENDED             
 FURTHER NORTH WITH THIS SYSTEM. DGEX AND NOGAPS KEEPS THIS FURTHER             
 SOUTH. ALL MODELS SHOW AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT FOR LATER FRIDAY.             
 INTRODUCED CHANCE POPS FOR FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WITH ALL OF THIS IN            
 MIND. ATTM...THINK THE COLD FRONT WILL LIKELY HAVE ENOUGH MOISTURE             
 TO AT LEAST WARRANT CHANCE POPS FOR NOW. PRECIP TYPE IS IN                     
 QUESTION...WITH MARGINAL TEMPERATURES AT ALL LEVELS. FOR NOW...WENT            
 WITH A MENTION OF RAIN AND SNOW. COLDER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE               
 AREA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH.               
 THERE IS STILL UNCERTAINTY IN THE LATER PORTION OF THE EXTENDED...SO           
 THE FORECAST WILL LIKELY NEED TO BE FINE TUNED AS TIME GOES ON.                
 &&                                                                             
 .AVIATION.../12Z TO 12Z/...UPDATED                                             
 FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLED JUST NORTHWEST OF THE AREA CONTINUES TO               
 SEND WAVES OF SHOWERS NORTH OF INTERSTATE 64. NO REAL REASON FOR THE           
 FRONT TO PUSH SOUTH...AND IN FACT IT WILL LIKELY WAFFLE BACK NORTH             
 SOME TODAY AS LOW PRESSURE FORMS OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY             
 AND THEN HEADS NORTH. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN AREA TAF SITES REMAINING           
 VFR THROUGH THE DAY. ONE WRINKLE IN THIS THEORY IS A CONVECTIVELY              
 INDUCED VORTICITY MAXIMUM WHICH SHOWS UP ON WATER VAPOR SATELLITE              
 IMAGERY OVER MISSISSIPPI. RUC...AND TO SOME EXTENT THE NAM...PICK UP           
 ON THIS FEATURE AND MOVE IT NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA THIS                     
 AFTERNOON. THIS MAY PROVIDE ENOUGH LIFT FOR SOME SHOWERS...BUT WILL            
 MAINTAIN VFR CONDITIONS FOR NOW.                                               
 CONDITIONS SHOULD FINALLY DETERIORATE LATER TONIGHT AS THE SURFACE             
 WAVE MOVES NORTHEAST ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE STATE. HAVE                
 DELAYED ONSET OF MVFR CIGS/VSBYS A FEW HOURS FROM EARLIER THINKING             
 AS LATEST GUIDANCE IS A TOUCH SLOWER AND FARTHER WEST WITH THE                 
 SURFACE LOW. WINDS WILL ALSO BECOME GUSTY AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH SOME             
 BORDERLINE LLWS AS MODELS DEVELOP A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET IN EXCESS             
 OF 40 KT AROUND 2K FT AGL AND ABOVE.                                           
 &&                                                                             
 .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                            
 FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON FOR KYZ044-050>052-058>060-               
 104-106-108.                                                                   
 &&                                                                             
 $$                                                                             
 SHORT TERM...AR                                                                
 LONG TERM...WJM                                                                
 AVIATION...ABE                                                                 
</pre> ky                                                                       

 AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                       
 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY                                         
 309 AM EST SUN JAN 14 2007                                                     
 .SHORT TERM (TODAY AND TONIGHT)...                                             
 CURRENTLY...A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT IS ALIGNED ROUGHLY FROM SOUTH             
 OF CINCINNATI...TO LOUISVILLE...TO MEMPHIS. SFC LOW PRESSURE                   
 WAVES RIDING ALONG THIS FRONT AND AMPLE MOISTURE HAVE BEEN                     
 RESPONSIBLE FOR THE RAINFALL OVER THE PAST 1-2 DAYS. RAINFALL                  
 TOTALS ACROSS THE CWA OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS HAVE RANGED FROM                  
 AROUND A TENTH OF AN INCH ACROSS THE SERN CWA TO ROUGHLY THREE-                
 QUARTERS OF AN INCH ACROSS THE WNW. ANOTHER SFC WAVE OVER WRN TN               
 IS HELPING PUMP MOISTURE NORTHWARD ALONG THE FRONT INTO OUR WRN                
 CWA ATTM. THIS WILL BE THE FIRST OF TWO MAIN WAVES OF MOD-TO-HEAVY             
 RAINFALL FOR THE CWA.                                                          
 BASED OFF THE 00Z NAM (WHICH HAS THE BEST HANDLE ON CURRENT RADAR              
 IMAGERY)...THE TN SFC WAVE WILL RIDE ALONG THE FRONT WHICH WILL BE             
 NEARLY PARALLEL TO THE OHIO RIVER. THUS THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL IS               
 EXPECTED ALONG AND AROUND THE OHIO RIVER THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS             
 AND PERHAPS INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. BOTH THE NAM AND RUC               
 (AND WRF) THINK THAT OUR SERN CWA COULD GET BY TODAY WITH ONLY A               
 FEW LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS. HAVE BACKED OFF ON POPS DOWN THERE TO                  
 ACCOUNT FOR THIS TREND. EVEN THOUGHT OF CANCELING THE WATCH                    
 ACROSS OUR FAR SERN CWA...BUT WE MAY SEE ENOUGH PRECIP WITH THE                
 SECOND WAVE TO JUSTIFY IT. SOMETHING THE NEXT SHIFT WILL CERTAINLY             
 HAVE TO CONSIDER THOUGH. WELL...THE FIRST WAVE OF POTENTIALLY HEAVY            
 RAIN IS CURRENTLY CAUSING MINOR FLOODING PROBLEMS IN PAH`S                     
 CWA...BUT OTHER THAN SOME HEAVY RAIN AT TIMES AND STANDING WATER               
 IN LOW-LYING AREAS...IT SHOULD NOT POSE A FLOOD THREAT YET. RAIN               
 TOTALS AFTER THIS FIRST WAVE COULD RANGE FROM A HALF INCH UP TO                
 OVER AN INCH OF RAINFALL BY MIDDAY.                                            
 OTHER THAN OFF AND ON RAIN...THE NEXT MAIN WAVE OF PRECIP WILL                 
 COME THROUGH LATE TONIGHT AS THE MAIN SFC LOW RIDES UP ALONG THE               
 FRONT TONIGHT. THIS SHOULD SUPPORT THE BEST CHANCE AT FLOODING                 
 RAINS...WITH AID FROM THE RIGHT-ENTRANCE REGION OF 120-KT UPPER                
 JET AND STRONG LLJ OF 60KTS. THUS WE COULD SEE ADDITIONAL RAINFALL             
 AMOUNTS OF ANOTHER ONE TO MAYBE TWO INCHES. DO NOT SEE CONVECTION              
 BEING A THREAT AS NAM AND GFS SFC AND ELEVATED INSTABILITY IS NON-             
 EXISTENT FROM THE 00Z RUNS. THUS WILL REMOVE THUNDER WORDING.                  
 DESPITE LACK OF CONVECTION...THINK RAINFALL TOTALS COULD RANGE                 
 FROM 2-3 INCHES...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS. THIS COULD LEAD TO              
 MINOR FLOODING...WITH THE BEST CHANCE OCCURRING FOR SRN IN AND NRN             
 KY LATE TONIGHT WITH THE SECOND WAVE OF PRECIP. THUS...FLOOD WATCH             
 STILL SEEMS WARRANTED AND AM ACTUALLY INCLINED TO EXTEND IT TO 12Z             
 MONDAY. MAY DEFER THIS TO DAY SHIFT THOUGH.                                    
 FOR AVIATION CONCERNS...OTHER THAN VARIABLE LIFR CIGS AND                      
 VIS`S...WILL HAVE LLWS TONIGHT WITH STRONG 850MB JET.                          
 WILL HAVE QUITE THE TEMP GRADIENT FOR HIGHS TODAY...WITH LOW 60S               
 SE TO AROUND 50 NW. ADDITIONALLY...WINDS MAY BE GUSTY TODAY AND                
 TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SRN AND SERN CWA WITH GUSTS AROUND             
 20 MPH OR SO POSSIBLE.                                                         
 AL                                                                             
 .LONG TERM (MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...                                        
 MONDAY AND TUESDAY...                                                          
 AT THE BEGINNING OF THIS PERIOD WE FIND AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE PARKED            
 OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO AND FLORIDA WITH A TROUGH WORKING              
 ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THE LAST WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE             
 ALONG THE ARCTIC FRONT WILL MOVE FROM THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY ON ITS             
 WAY TO THE NORTHEAST COAST. AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP                
 ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE DAY MONDAY. IN ITS WAKE A                  
 NORTHERLY FLOW WILL BRING MORE WINTER LIKE TEMPERATURES INTO THE               
 LOWER OHIO VALLEY. PRECIPITATION (HEAVY AT TIMES ACROSS THE                    
 SOUTHEAST MONDAY MORNING) WILL END AS THE COLD AIR ARRIVES ALTHOUGH            
 THERE MAY BE SOME RAIN AND SNOW MIXED ACROSS SOUTHERN INDIANA MONDAY           
 AFTERNOON. COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE MONDAY NIGHT INTO                  
 TUESDAY AND THE MODELS HINT AT SOME MOISTURE FROM LAKE MICHIGAN                
 DROPPING SOUTH INTO THE REGION. WE WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION FLURRIES           
 MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.                                                     
 TEMPERATURES AT THE BEGINNING OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD (12Z) MONDAY             
 WILL RANGE FROM AROUND 40 OVER THE NORTHWEST PORTION OF THE                    
 FORECAST AREA TO THE UPPER 50S ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST. TEMPERATURES              
 WILL FALL THROUGH THE DAY. NORMAL LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE MID AND              
 UPPER 20S MONDAY NIGHT WILL FEEL VERY COLD COMPARED TO THE RECENT              
 WARM SPELL. TUESDAYS HIGHS WILL REACH THE MID 30S WITH LOWS                    
 TUESDAY NIGHT FALLING INTO THE UPPER TEENS AND LOW 20S. --JA                   
 WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...                                                  
 MORE OR LESS OF A CONSENSUS FOR A SPLIT FLOW PATTERN SHAPING UP                
 FOR THIS PERIOD. THE NORTHERLY BRANCH LOOKS TO BE THE STRONGEST                
 AND THE CONTROLLING WEATHER FEATURE FOR OUR REGION. ONE OR TWO                 
 SYSTEMS ROTATING ESE ACROSS SRN CANADA INTO THE NORTHEASTERN U.S.              
 DURING THIS TIME FRAME WOULD BRING BURSTS OF REINFORCING COLDER                
 AND DRY AIR INTO THE REGION. ALL IN ALL...WE AGREE WITH THE HPC                
 TRENDS FOR A MUCH NEEDED DRY PERIOD WITH TEMPS NEAR OR ONLY A FEW              
 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.                                                          
 --21                                                                           
 &&                                                                             
 .LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                            
 KY...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR KYZ023>043-045>049-053>057-          
      061>067-070>078-081-082.                                                  
 IN...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR INZ076>079-083-084-089>092.          
 &&                                                                             
 $$                                                                             
</pre> ky                                                                       

 AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                             
 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY                                         
 820 PM EST SAT JAN 13 2007                                                     
 ...FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...                               
 .UPDATE...                                                                     
 MAINLY LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN HAS CONTINUED OVER THE LMK CWA THIS              
 EVENING SUPPORTED BY MODEST LOW LEVEL WARM/MOIST ADVECTION                     
 INTERSECTING WITH NEARLY STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY. BASED ON MOST            
 RECENT LAPS ANALYSIS...FRONTAL BOUNDARY LOCATED FROM ROUGHLY MADISON           
 TO NEW ALBANY TO MORGANTOWN AS OF 1Z.                                          
 CONSENSUS OF LATEST MODEL OUTPUT INDICATES THIS FRONT WILL DROP                
 SLIGHTLY S THROUGH THE EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS...THEN LIFT BACK TO THE           
 N AS A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRES RIDES NE ALONG THE FRONT AND THROUGH              
 THE CWA BETWEEN 12-18Z/SUN. AS A RESULT...TEMPS OVERNIGHT WILL                 
 LIKELY RANGE FROM NEAR 60 OVER OUR FAR SE TO THE MID 40S IN SRN IND.           
 READINGS SUNDAY MAY REACH INTO THE MIDDLE 60S OVER OUR SE                      
 COUNTIES...ESPECIALLY IF RAINS ARE MORE SCATTERED THERE. HAVE RAISED           
 FCST MAX TEMPS SUNDAY TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS.                                     
 REGARDING PRECIP AMOUNTS...THUS FAR TODAY THE AMOUNTS HAVE NOT BEEN            
 EXCESSIVE...HOWEVER WITH AFOREMENTIONED SFC WAVE FCST TO MOVE ACROSS           
 THE AREA LATE TONIGHT-SUNDAY MORNING...ANOTHER ROUND OF MDT-HVY                
 RAINS IS LIKELY...MAINLY OVER CNTRL/NRN PARTS OF THE CWA PER LATEST            
 RUC AND RADAR TRENDS. WITHIN THIS BURST OF RAIN...SOME SPOTS MAY GET           
 IN EXCESS OF 1" OF RAIN WITHIN 3-6 HRS...SO FLOODING REMAINS A                 
 CONCERN THROUGH AT LEAST SUNDAY MORNING. NEW HPC EXCESSIVE RAINFALL            
 GRAPHIC THROUGH 0Z/MON NOW PLACES MODERATE RISK OVER NW 1/3 OF THE             
 LMK CWA. SRN SECTIONS OF THE CWA...ESPECIALLY THE SE...ARE DISPLACED           
 FROM BEST LIFT SO HAVE LOWERED POPS OVERNIGHT...BUT STILL                      
 CATEGORICAL. A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES AS FAR N AS LITTLE ROCK THIS              
 EVENING...BUT RUC DOES SHOW SOME WEAK ELEVATED INSTABILITY WORKING             
 INTO SRN KY OVERNIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING...SO WILL CONTINUE MENTION            
 OF ISLTD EMBEDDED THUNDER DOWNSTATE.                                           
 AVIATION WISE...CIGS WILL BE LOW (IFR OR LESS) NEAR OR NORTH OF THE            
 FRONT...BUT INTO THE MVFR OR EVEN VFR CATEGORIES SOUTH OF THE FRONT            
 OVERNIGHT. HAVE ATTEMPTED TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS IN THE TAFS.                     
 UPDATED FCST OUT BY 9 PM EST.                                                  
 CS                                                                             
 &&                                                                             
 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 301 PM EST SAT JAN 13 2007/                        
 SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)...                                   
 AFTERNOON SFC ANALYSIS REVEALS SLOW MOVING FRONTAL BOUNDARY JUST               
 WEST OF A LINE FROM CVG TO LMK TO MEM.  IMPRESSIVE GRADIENT OF                 
 TEMPERATURES NOTED ON THE ANALYSIS AS WELL...ESPECIALLY BETWEEN                
 PADUCAH AND CLARKSVILLE TN WHERE AT 18Z THERE WAS A 19 DEGREE                  
 DIFFERENCE.  CONSENSUS OF THE SHORT TERM MODELS FOR THE REMAINDER OF           
 THE AFTERNOON SUGGEST THAT THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAY MOVE SLIGHTLY             
 MORE EAST BEFORE STALLING OUT ALONG THE OHIO RIVER TONIGHT.  AREA              
 RADARS SHOWING QUITE A BIT OF SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE DISTRICT.             
 A BIT OF BREAK IN THE ACTION WAS NOTED OVER SOUTHERN INDIANA...BUT             
 SECONDARY BATCH OF RAIN IS MOVING NORTHEAST OUT OF THE NW AR AND NW            
 TN WHICH WILL IMPACT THE AREA LATER TONIGHT.  TEMPERATURES IN THE NW           
 WERE IN THE MID 40S WITH UPPER 50S TO NEAR 60 IN THE SOUTHEASTERN              
 SECTIONS.                                                                      
 FOR TONIGHT...SHORT TERM MODEL SOLUTIONS FOR THE PD SHOW ANOTHER               
 ROUND OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL MOVING ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT.            
 THIS ROUND OF RAIN IS NOW LOCATED TO OUR SOUTHWEST AND WILL MOVE               
 NORTHEAST AS WEAK WAVE ALONG FRONT SCOOTS NORTHEAST.  PERIODS OF               
 RAIN...HEAVY AT TIMES LOOKS LIKE A GOOD BET.  AXIS OF PRECIPITATION            
 IS FORECAST TO BE ALIGNED ALONG AND JUST SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER.              
 LATEST MODEL RUNS SUGGEST AROUND THREE QUARTERS TO ONE INCH OF                 
 PRECIPITATION WITH THIS AS IT MOVES THROUGH.  WHILE INSTABILITY                
 REMAINS RATHER WEAK ACROSS THE REGION...APPROACH OF SFC LOW AND                
 INCREASED SFC CONVERGENCE MAY ALLOW A FEW ISO STORMS TO                        
 DEVELOP...MAINLY ACROSS SOUTHERN SECTIONS.  THEREFORE WILL CONTINUE            
 THUNDER WORDING IN THE SOUTH.  MINIMUM TEMPS WILL BE TRICKY                    
 DEPENDING ON WHERE FRONTAL BOUNDARY LINES UP.  RIGHT                           
 NOW...TEMPERATURES NORTH OF THE RIVER SHOULD MAINTAIN READINGS IN              
 THE 44 TO 49 DEGREE RANGE WHILE AREAS SOUTH WILL REMAIN IN THE LOW             
 TO MID 50S OVERNIGHT.                                                          
 SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...DEEP SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW IS FORECAST TO               
 CONTINUE AS FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS FORECAST TO REMAIN QUASI-STATIONARY            
 ACROSS THE REGION.  ONE FINAL ROUND OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN IS               
 FORECAST TO IMPACT THE AREA LATE SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT AS FINAL              
 SFC WAVE PASSES NE THROUGH THE REGION.  WITH THIS FEATURE ANOTHER              
 THREE QUARTERS TO ONE INCH OF QPF CAN BE EXPECTED.  AGAIN THE MODELS           
 SUGGEST THE AXIS OF HEAVIEST RAIN TO BE CENTERED FIRMLY ACROSS                 
 CENTRAL KY...SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER.  TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS            
 FROM NOW THROUGH MONDAY MORNING LOOK TO BE IN THE 2 TO 4 INCH                  
 RANGE...THOUGH SOME ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS WILL BE POSSIBLE.                  
 THEREFORE...CURRENT FLOOD WATCH WILL CONTINUE.  INSTABILITY IS                 
 FAIRLY WEAK AGAIN ON SUNDAY...SO AN ISOLATED STORM OR TWO WOULD BE             
 POSSIBLE...MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND SE SECTIONS.  TEMPERATURES           
 WILL RISE A BIT ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS SFC WAVE APPROACHES.  HIGHS             
 IN THE SOUTH WILL WARM INTO THE UPPER 50S WITH READINGS IN SOUTHERN            
 INDIANA WILL RISE INTO THE UPPER 40S.  MODELS ARE CONSISTENT ON                
 DRIVING SFC LOW NE OF THE REGION BY MONDAY MORNING WITH AXIS OF                
 PRECIPITATION SLOWLY DROPPING SOUTHEASTWARD WITH TIME.                         
 HYDRO ISSUES...AS OF RIGHT NOW...THINGS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD SHAPE               
 ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.  WE HAVE SEEN A QUICK RISE ON THE                    
 MUSCATATUCK RIVER NEAR DEPUTY AND A FLOOD WARNING FOR THAT FORECAST            
 POINT HAS BEEN ISSUED.  OF PARTICULAR CONCERN IS THE FORECAST HEAVY            
 RAINFALL POSSIBLE ACROSS KENTUCKY LATER TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY                 
 NIGHT.  SHOULD THE TWO TO FOUR INCHES OF RAIN MATERIALIZE...WE WILL            
 HAVE QUICK RISES ON THE ROLLING FORK...SALT...GREEN AND THE OHIO               
 RIVER BY LATE IN THE WEEKEND.  AS A RESULT...A FLOOD WATCH FOR                 
 FORECAST POINTS ALONG THE OHIO RIVER HAS BEEN ISSUED.                          
 -MJ                                                                            
 LONG TERM (MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...                                         
 MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...                                                     
 FINAL SHORT WAVE MOVES BY LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY AND THIS WILL           
 FORCE THE SURFACE COLD FRONT RAPIDLY SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE FA LATE              
 SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. ESSENTIALLY WILL GO WITH STEADY OR FALLING            
 TEMPS ACROSS THE FA ON MONDAY...THE DAYTIME HIGHS WILL OCCUR DURING            
 THE MORNING...THEN BREEZY AND COLDER WITH FALLING TEMPS DURING THE             
 DAY. WILL GO WITH HIGH POPS MONDAY MORNING DROPPING TO SLIGHT CHANCE           
 NW TO SE DURING THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. FOR CONSISTENCY WITH           
 SURROUNDING FA`S WILL MENTION POSSIBLE RW-/SW- MIX MONDAY                      
 AFTERNOON...DURING MONDAY NIGHT WENT CHC OF SW-- WITH POPS AT 14               
 PERCENT.                                                                       
 TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT....                                                  
 WENT WITH DRY WEATHER...GRADUAL CLEARING AND OF COURSE COLDER BUT              
 NOT REALLY COLD TEMPS. CURRENT FCST TOO SLOW WITH THE DRYING AND               
 CLEARING TREND.                                                                
 WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...                                                  
 MORE A LESS OF A CONSENSUS FOR A SPLIT FLOW PATTERN SHAPING UP FOR             
 THIS PERIOD. THE NORTHERLY BRANCH LOOKS TO BE THE STRONGEST AND THE            
 CONTROLLING WEATHER FEATURE FOR OUR REGION. ONE OR TWO SYSTEMS                 
 ROTATING ESE ACROSS SRN CANADA INTO THE NORTHEASTERN U.S. DURING               
 THIS TIME FRAME...THIS WOULD BRING ONE OR TWO WEAK BURSTS OF                   
 REINFORCING BURST OF COLDER AND DRY AIR INTO THE REGION DURING THIS            
 PERIOD. ALL IN ALL...WE AGREE WITH THE HPC TRENDS FOR A MUCH NEEDED            
 DRY PERIOD WITH TEMPS NEAR OR ONLY A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.                 
 --21                                                                           
 &&                                                                             
 .LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                            
 KY...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT FOR KYZ023>043-045>049-             
      053>057-061>067-070>078-081-082.                                          
 IN...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT FOR INZ076>079-083-084-             
      089>092.                                                                  
 &&                                                                             
 $$                                                                             
</pre> ky                                                                       

 AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                       
 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY                                         
 1016 AM EST SAT JAN 13 2007                                                    
 .MORNING UPDATE (THIS AFTERNOON/TONIGHT)...                                    
 CURRENT MORNING SFC ANALYSIS REVEALS COLD FRONT FROM NEAR CMH SW TO            
 JUST WEST OF MEM.  PRETTY GOOD TEMPERATURE GRADIENT NOTED ACROSS THE           
 FAR NW PORTION OF THE DISTRICT WITH READINGS IN THE MID AND UPPER              
 50S ACROSS MUCH OF THE FA...BUT UP NEAR JASPER TEMPERATURES HAVE               
 DROPPED INTO THE MID 40S.  AREA RADARS SHOWING NEXT ROUND OF LIGHT             
 TO MODERATE RAIN MOVING IN FROM THE WEST WHICH WILL PASS THROUGH THE           
 FA THIS AFTERNOON.  EASTERN SECTIONS WILL SEE A GENERAL DOWNWARD               
 TREND IN PRECIPITATION LATE THIS MORNING BEFORE INCREASING AGAIN IN            
 THE AFTERNOON.                                                                 
 LOOKING AT THE LATEST SHORT TERM GUIDANCE...THE RUC MODELS                     
 (13KM/40KM) SEEM TO HAVE A VERY GOOD HANDLE ON TEMPERATURES THIS               
 MORNING.  THE RUC MODELS SEEM TO BRING THE FRONT TO ABOUT LOUISVILLE           
 LATE THIS EVENING AND THEN STALLING IT OUT.  THE NET RESULT WOULD BE           
 TEMPERATURES ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN INDIANA COUNTIES WOULD FALL DURING            
 THE AFTERNOON INTO THE MID AND UPPER 40S WITH ALL OF THE KY COUNTIES           
 TEMPERATURES HOLDING STEADY IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S.                           
 CURRENT FORECAST IS GOOD SHAPE RIGHT NOW...BUT WILL NEED TO MAKE               
 SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE TEMP GRIDS TO REFLECT CURRENT RUC                
 TRENDS.                                                                        
 ON THE HYDROLOGICAL SIDE...AT THE PRESENT TIME WE ARE IN GOOD                  
 SHAPE.  THE LIGHT TO MODERATE RAINS THUS FAR HAVE NOT RESULTED IN              
 EXCESSIVE RUNOFF.  HOWEVER...MAIN BULK OF PRECIPITATION ACCUMULATION           
 IS FORECAST TO IMPACT THE REGION LATE TONIGHT AND ON SUNDAY.                   
 THEREFORE...CURRENT FLOOD WATCH WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT.                         
 UPDATED FORECAST SUITE WILL BE AVAILABLE BY 1100 AM EST.                       
 -MJ                                                                            
 PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...                                                 
 .SHORT TERM (TODAY AND TONIGHT)...                                             
 CURRENTLY...DEEP SWRLY FLOW IS DOMINATING ACROSS THE REGION. A COLD            
 FRONT IS QUICKLY APPROACHING FROM THE WEST AND IS PUSHING THROUGH              
 EVV ATTM. LOW-LEVEL COLD AIR IS FILTERING IN BEHIND THE FRONT FASTER           
 THAN MODELS HAD ANTICIPATED. LARGE AMOUNT OF ISENTROPIC LIFT OVER              
 THE COLD AIR HAS LED TO QUITE AN ICING EVENT OVER PORTIONS OF OK               
 INTO MO. LARGE TEMP GRADIENT PRESENT AS WELL...AS PAH WAS AT 60                
 DEGREES AND CAPE GIRARDEAU AT 39 DEGREES AT 2AM EST.                           
 DESPITE COLD FRONT QUICKLY APPROACHING...A LOW PRESSURE WAVE OVER              
 THE TEXARKANA REGION RIDING NEWD ALONG THE FRONT WILL HELP SLOW THE            
 FRONT`S PROGRESSION...AND WILL BE RESPONSIBLE FOR OUR FIRST WAVE OF            
 POTENTIALLY HEAVY PRECIP...WHICH IS CURRENTLY OVER WRN KY. THIS AREA           
 SHOULD EXPAND AND FILTER INTO OUR CWA THROUGHOUT THE MORNING. MAY              
 EVEN SEE A RUMBLE OF THUNDER OR TWO WITH THIS FIRST BATCH OF                   
 RAINFALL GIVEN UPSTREAM TRENDS. WILL ONLY MENTION ISLD THREAT WEST             
 OF I-65 THIS MORNING. AFTER THIS MORNING`S MAIN AREA OF PRECIP...A             
 LULL IN THE PRECIP SHOULD OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE ANOTHER LOW              
 PRESSURE WAVE RIDES NEWD ALONG THE FRONT TONIGHT...CAUSING ANOTHER             
 BOUT OF POTENTIALLY HEAVY RAIN.                                                
 THOUGH RAIN ONSET IS LATER THAN ANTICIPATED...STILL THINK THE FLOOD            
 WATCH IS WARRANTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND. PWATS ARE OVER AN INCH                 
 NOW...AND NAM BUFKIT SOUNDINGS INDICATE NEAR 1.5 INCHES THIS                   
 EVENING...WHICH IS SUPPORTED BY THE 4-5 STD DEVIATIONS ABV NORMAL              
 POSED BY THE SHORT-RANGE ENSEMBLES. ALSO...NAM AND GFS INDICATE SOME           
 ELEVATED INSTABILITY WITH LI`S AROUND ZERO TONIGHT...WHICH WILL AID            
 IN OVERALL PRECIP AMOUNTS GIVEN THIS CONVECTION. STILL THINK SOME              
 LOCATIONS COULD SEE 2-3 INCHES OF RAINFALL...WITH ISOLATED LOCATIONS           
 SEEING 4 INCHES OR MORE. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE SLOW ONSET THINK A                
 WIDESPREAD FLOODING EVENT IS NOT LIKELY...THOUGH A MINOR AND MORE              
 ISOLATED FLOODING EVENT IS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE...SO WILL CONTINUE               
 FLOOD WATCH. MAY DOWN PLAY AMOUNTS A WEE BIT BUT THAT IS ALL.                  
 THE FRONT WILL BE CLOSELY ALIGNED WITH THE OHIO RIVER AROUND SUNRISE           
 AND SHOULD BE IN NEARLY THE SAME LOCATION OR JUST SE BY MIDNIGHT               
 TONIGHT. WILL KEEP CATEGORICAL POPS GOING...WITH MENTION OF LOCALLY            
 HEAVY RAINFALL.                                                                
 FOR AVIATION CONCERNS...HAVE LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR IN ALL THE TAF               
 SITES THIS MORNING GIVEN THE STRONG SWRLY JET OF 40-45 KTS OVER THE            
 CWA NOW...EVIDENT FROM AREA VWPS AND SDF ACARS SOUNDINGS. MAY SEE              
 SOME GUSTY WINDS HERE AND THERE...BUT NOTHING OUT OF HAND AS CLOUDY            
 SKIES SHOULD HELP INHIBIT LARGER GUSTS.                                        
 TEMPS WILL BE TRICKY TODAY...AND COULD HAVE QUITE THE GRADIENT                 
 ACROSS THE CWA...ESPECIALLY BY MIDDAY. TEMPS MAY DROP AND/OR STEADY            
 OUT ACROSS THE NW...WITH CURRENT READINGS IN THE UPPER 50S DROPPING            
 TO THE UPPER 40S AND HOLDING THERE. THE SERN CWA COULD SEE HIGHS A             
 FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN CURRENT READINGS...AND SHOULD STICK AROUND             
 60 FOR THE MOST PART. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL NOT BUDGE MUCH AND SHOULD            
 BE JUST A FEW DEGREES COLDER THAN HIGHS TODAY.                                 
 AL                                                                             
 .LONG TERM (SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...                                          
 SUNDAY AND MONDAY...                                                           
 FORECAST CHALLENGE WILL BE PLACEMENT OF THE COLD FRONT AT THE                  
 BEGINNING OF THIS PERIOD. LATEST SHORT RANGE MODELS DID NOT                    
 INITIALIZE SHALLOW COLD AIR WELL AND FEEL IT WILL BE FURTHER SOUTH             
 THAN MODELS SUGGEST. SURFACE WAVE SHOULD SHIFT THE COLD AIR NORTH              
 SOME DURING THE AFTERNOON SUNDAY AND AT THIS TIME WE WILL KEEP                 
 PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE NORTH IN THE FORM OF RAIN. THE AXIS OF                
 HEAVY RAIN SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT STILL LOOKS TO BE ALONG THE OHIO            
 RIVER WHERE AN INCH TO AN INCH AND A HALF WILL BE POSSIBLE. LIGHTEST           
 AMOUNTS WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST PORTION OF THE COUNTY                  
 FORECAST AREA. WE WILL HOLD ONTO ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS SOUTH OF THE           
 OHIO RIVER SUNDAY WHERE BEST DYNAMICS EXIST...ALTHOUGH INSTABILITY             
 WILL BE LACKING.                                                               
 TEMPERATURES WILL BE A CONCERN AS WELL AS A 10 TO 15 DEGREE GRADIENT           
 WILL BE NOTED ACROSS THE COLD FRONT. HIGHS SUNDAY WILL TOP OUT IN              
 THE LOWER 40S ACROSS SOUTHERN INDIANA WITH UPPER 50S EXPECTED NEAR             
 THE TENNESSEE BORDER.                                                          
 ONCE THE SURFACE LOW MOVES NORTHEAST OF THE REGION THE MODIFIED                
 ARCTIC AIR WILL ENTER THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY. HIGHEST TEMPERATURES           
 WILL OCCUR DURING THE MORNING. LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE             
 MONDAY BUT NO ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED.                                        
 JA                                                                             
 TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...                                                      
 NOT MUCH CHANGE IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THIS TIME PERIOD.  WITH                
 FRONT CONTINUING TO OUR SOUTH AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE           
 UPPER PLAINS...NORTHERLY WINDS WILL GET THE LAKE-EFFECT SNOW MACHINE           
 GOING TO OUR NORTH. DOWN THIS FAR SOUTH...FEEL THAT SCT FLURRIES               
 WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY AND WILL LEAVE AS SUCH.             
 BETTER CHC FOR SNOW SHOWERS WOULD EXIST OVER FAR EAST KY IN THE                
 FAVORED UPSLOPE REGIONS. DRY FORECAST IS ANTICIPATED FOR WEDNESDAY             
 THROUGH FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD OVER THE REGION.            
 TEMPERATURES AT THE BEGINNING OF THIS PD WILL BE WELL BELOW NORMAL             
 WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE             
 UPPER TEENS. SOME MODERATION IN THE TEMPERATURES WILL OCCUR BY                 
 THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING SLIGHTLY INTO THE                
 MID AND UPPER 30S. GENERALLY STUCK CLOSE TO THE HPC GUIDANCE                   
 THROUGH THIS PERIOD.                                                           
 MJ                                                                             
 &&                                                                             
 .LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                            
 KY...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT FOR KYZ023>043-045>049-             
      053>057-061>067-070>078-081-082.                                          
 IN...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT FOR INZ076>079-083-084-             
      089>092.                                                                  
 &&                                                                             
 $$                                                                             
</pre> ky                                                                       

 AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                       
 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA                                         
 403 PM CST SAT JAN 13 2007                                                     
 .DISCUSSION...                                                                 
 LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL CONTINUES ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF NORTHEAST         
 TEXAS...SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS THIS AFTERNOON AND           
 NOT EXPECTING THIS TO CHANGE MUCH ANY TIME SOON. FLASH FLOOD WATCHES           
 WERE POSTED EARLY THIS MORNING FOR THIS REGION AND THE ONLY ADJUSTMENT         
 WAS TO EXTEND THE WATCH INTO SUNDAY EVENING AS THE HEAVY RAIN SHOULD           
 BE COMING TO AND END SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS LARGE AREA OF PRECIPITATION            
 WILL EVENTUALLY BEGIN TO FILL IN FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST THUS HAVE              
 KEPT POPS RATHER HIGH ACROSS NORTHWEST LOUISIANA BUT HAVE TRIMED               
 POPS BACK TO CHANCE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY ACROSS OUR EXTREME EASTERN              
 PARISHES.                                                                      
 COLD FRONT HAS SLOWED TO A CRAWL TODAY...NOW LOCATED NEAR A HOT                
 SPRINGS...TEXARKANA...MARSHALL...MOUNT ENTERPRISE LINE. HAVE                   
 FOLLOWED THE RUC FCST CLOSELY OVER THE NEXT 12HRS WHICH ONLY                   
 BRINGS THE FRONT A LITTLE FURTHER EAST OVERNIGHT...INTO THE                    
 SHREVEPORT/BOSSIER CITY AREA NEAR OR SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT.                   
 THIS FRONT WILL AGAIN PULL UP NEARLY STATIONARY DURING THE                     
 DAY SUNDAY AS A SECONDARY SHOT OF COLD ARCTIC AREA DIVES DOWN                  
 OUT OF SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTH TEXAS WHICH PROMISES TO                     
 KICK THE ORIGIONAL BOUNDARY THROUGH ALL OF THE REGION BY LATE                  
 SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY. MEDIUM RANGE PROGS REMAIN                      
 UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME CONCERNING THE DEGREE OF OVERRUNNING                    
 MOISTURE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY BUT THE NAM PROG...WHICH OF                  
 LATE HAS BEEN FAR SUPERIOR TO THE GFS...PUSHES THE 32 DEGREE                   
 ISOTHERM INTO A GOOD PORTION OF NORTHEAST TEXAS...SOUTHEAST                    
 OKLAHOMA AND SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS BEGINNING LATE SUNDAY NIGHT                    
 THROUGH AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY MONDAY. FOR THIS                    
 REASON...HAVE POSTED A WINTER STORM WATCH FOR SUNDAY NIGHT AND                 
 MONDAY ALONG AND NORTH OF A LINE FROM JACKSONVILLE AND TEXARKANA               
 TEXAS TO LEWISVILLE AND PRESCOTT ARKANSAS. AT THIS TIME...IT DOES              
 NOT APPEAR THAT FREEZING RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE EXCESSIVE BUT                
 THE WATCH IS A GOOD START THIS FAR IN ADVANCE SUCH THAT IF IT                  
 APPEARS LIKE CONDITIONS WARRANT...THE WATCH CAN BE EXPANDED OR                 
 UPGRADED TO AN ADVISORY OR WARNING ISSUED BY LATER SHIFTS.                     
 FOR THE EXTENDED PACKAGE...TROUGH CONTINUES TO RELOAD ACROSS THE               
 SOUTHWEST CONUS AND THUS WE REMAIN IN A MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW                   
 REGIME THROUGH THE WEEK AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND. HAVE INTRODUCED                 
 SLIGHT CHANCE POPS THROUGH MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK AND BETTER                
 CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS BY LATE NEXT WEEK/ NEXT WEEKEND WITH THE             
 APPROACH OF ANOTHER COLD FRONT.                                                
 13                                                                             
 &&                                                                             
 .AVIATION...                                                                   
 IFR/LIFR CIGS WILL CONTINUE UNDER THE RAIN AREA ALONG/BEHIND THE               
 COLD FRONT...WHICH HAS NOW SHIFTED JUST E OF TXK...TO N CADDO                  
 PARISH...TO JUST E OF MARSHALL...TO DKR AS OF 21Z. EMBEDDED THUNDER            
 CONTINUES AS WELL...ALTHOUGH THESE CAN BE HANDLED IN TEMPO GROUPS IN           
 THE 00Z TAF ISSUANCE. CIGS HAVE BECOME VFR FARTHER E ACROSS DEEP E             
 TX AND MUCH OF N LA...ALTHOUGH THIS WILL NOT LAST LONG AS MVFR/IFR             
 STRATUS DEVELOPS TONIGHT. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL REDEVELOPMENT WILL               
 OCCUR FARTHER E INTO SW AR/NW LA/DEEP E TX...INCLUDING THE                     
 ELD/SHV/LFK TERMINALS...THUS WILL PREVAIL MVFR/IFR CIGS/VSBYS AT               
 THESE LOCATIONS TONIGHT. RAINFALL WILL REMAIN PERSISTENT OVER ALL              
 BUT THE MLU TERMINAL THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE TAF PERIOD. FROZEN PCP             
 WILL REMAIN ACROSS E/S OK AND N TX THROUGH 00Z MONDAY...BEFORE RAIN            
 BEGINS TO CHANGE OVER TO -FZRA OVER MCCURTAIN CO. OK/DEQ PRIOR TO              
 6Z. /15/                                                                       
 &&                                                                             
 .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                               
 SHV  56  58  37  40 /  80  90 100  70                                          
 MLU  65  74  48  48 /  50  50 100  70                                          
 DEQ  40  40  31  38 / 100 100 100  50                                          
 TXK  48  50  32  38 / 100 100 100  50                                          
 ELD  57  64  39  41 /  80 100 100  70                                          
 TYR  39  40  31  38 / 100 100 100  50                                          
 GGG  47  47  32  39 / 100 100 100  50                                          
 LFK  58  64  37  40 /  80  90 100  70                                          
 &&                                                                             
 .SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                            
 AR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 9 PM SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:              
      HEMPSTEAD...HOWARD...LAFAYETTE...LITTLE                                   
      RIVER...MILLER...NEVADA...AND SEVIER.                                     
      WINTER STORM WATCH FROM 9 PM SUNDAY TO NOON MONDAY FOR THE                
      FOLLOWING ZONES: HEMPSTEAD...HOWARD...LAFAYETTE...LITTLE                  
      RIVER...MILLER...NEVADA...AND SEVIER.                                     
 LA...NONE.                                                                     
 OK...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 9 PM SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: AND          
      MCCURTAIN.                                                                
      WINTER STORM WATCH FROM 9 PM SUNDAY TO NOON MONDAY FOR THE                
      FOLLOWING ZONES: AND MCCURTAIN.                                           
 TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 9 PM SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:              
      BOWIE...CAMP...CASS...CHEROKEE...FRANKLIN...GREGG...HARRISON...           
      MARION...MORRIS...RED RIVER...RUSK...SMITH...TITUS...UPSHUR...            
      AND WOOD.                                                                 
      WINTER STORM WATCH FROM 9 PM SUNDAY TO NOON MONDAY FOR THE                
      FOLLOWING ZONES:                                                          
      BOWIE...CAMP...CASS...CHEROKEE...FRANKLIN...GREGG...HARRISON...           
      MARION...MORRIS...PANOLA...RED RIVER...RUSK...SMITH...TITUS...            
      UPSHUR...AND WOOD.                                                        
 &&                                                                             
 $$                                                                             
 13/15                                                                          
</pre> la                                                                       

 AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                       
 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA                                         
 749 PM EST SUN JAN 14 2007                                                     
 .UPDATE/SHORT TERM /REST OF TONIGHT/...                                        
 ADDED MENTION OF AREAS OF FOG INTO MONDAY MORNING...AS LOW LEVELS ARE          
 SATURATED WITH RAIN CONTINUING TO FALL...AND WINDS ARE LIGHT.                  
 ALSO DELAYED ONSET OF HEAVIER RAIN ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY                
 UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT...BASED ON LATEST RUC MODEL AND RECENT RADAR              
 DATA. MAINTAINING FLOOD WATCH AS IS.                                           
 &&                                                                             
 .PREV DISCUSSION...                                                            
 /ISSUED 245 PM EST SUN JAN 14 2007/                                            
 SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...                                         
 RAIN DRIZZLE AND FOG INTO TONIGHT AS SURFACE WAVE APPROACHES FROM              
 SOUTHERN PLAINS AND MOVES ALONG BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS REGION.                 
 EXPECT RAIN TO INTENSIFY TONIGHT WITH HIGHEST AMOUNTS ALONG AND WEST           
 OF LOW TRACK INTO SOUTHWEST PA. FLOOD WATCH FOR AREA FROM PITTSBURGH           
 EAST ACROSS CWA AS HEAVIEST RAIN WILL OCCUR LATER TONIGHT INTO THE             
 FIRST HALF OF MONDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE TRICKY AS FRONT TRIES TO            
 SHIFT NORTH LATER TONIGHT AND IS PUSHED NORTH BY SURFACE WAVE                  
 MONDAY. WILL HAVE STEADY OR SLOWLY RISING TEMPS TONIGHT AND PUSH MAX           
 TEMPS UP SIGNIFICANTLY FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST FOR MONDAY CLOSER TO             
 MODEL GUIDANCE.                                                                
 LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...                                     
 CLOSED SURFACE LOW MOVES THROUGH THE AREA DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY             
 WITH COLDER AIR MOVING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST MONDAY NIGHT. COLD                
 NORTHWEST FLOW COMING IN OVER THE RELATIVELY WARMER LAKE ERIE WILL             
 BRING A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. THIS             
 RUN IS THE SAME AS LAST AND BY 06Z TUESDAY H8 TEMP MINUS 8 AT PIT              
 TO MINUS 10 ALONG THE ERIE LAKESHORE. LAKE ERIE TEMP IS PLUS 2. DRY            
 TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. CHANCE               
 PCPN FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT AS TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH FROM THE                 
 NORTHWEST. SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT HIGH PRESSURE COVERS THE                
 AREA. DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY ANOTHER WEAK TROUGH APPROACHES FROM             
 THE NORTHWEST.                                                                 
 AVIATION /20Z-18Z/...                                                          
 STATIONARY FRONT WILL REMAIN ALONG THE OHIO RIVER TODAY WITH NEXT              
 SURFACE WAVE TRACKING ALONG BOUNDARY INTO WESTERN PA BY LATE                   
 TONIGHT. WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS ALONG AND NORTH OF FRONT BUT AS             
 FRONT BEGINS TO SHIFT NORTH LATER TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MVFR WILL                
 BEGIN TO SHIFT NORTH BEHIND FRONT. PERIODS OF RAIN AND DRIZZLE                 
 THROUGH THE PERIOD.                                                            
 &&                                                                             
 .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                            
 MD...NONE.                                                                     
 OH...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON FOR OHZ039>041-048>050-              
      057>059-068-069.                                                          
 PA...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON FOR PAZ007-013-020-021-              
      029-031.                                                                  
 WV...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON FOR WVZ001>004-012.                  
 &&                                                                             
 $$                                                                             
 11                                                                             
</pre> md                                                                       

 AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                       
 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI                                    
 951 PM EST SUN JAN 14 2007                                                     
 .UPDATE...                                                                     
 OBSERVATIONS AND NEW 00Z MODEL DATA SUPPORTED THE GOING FORECAST               
 WITH NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES. FORECAST CONCERNS DURING THE                      
 OVERNIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING REVOLVED AROUND REFINEMENT OF                     
 PRECIPITATION TYPE AND AMOUNT, ALONG WITH THE DEGREE OF ICING IN               
 SOUTH SECTIONS OF THE AREA.                                                    
 THE SYSTEM HAD A LOT GOING FOR IT FROM THE COUPLED UPPER JET                   
 SUPPORTING THE MID LEVEL WAVE TO STRONG MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND                 
 LOW STATIC STABILITY. THERE IS EVEN SOME CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY                
 INDICATED IN MODEL CROSS SECTIONS NEAR THE OHIO BORDER THROUGH THE             
 EVENT. RAIN AND FREEZING RAIN WAS GETTING UNDERWAY NEAR THE OHIO               
 BORDER SINCE ABOUT 01Z AND SPREADING NORTHWARD ON STRONG MOISTURE              
 TRANSPORT/THETA-E ADVECTION. THIS WILL TRANSITION TO STRONG                    
 DYNAMIC FORCING IN THE MIDST OF THE MID LEVEL TROWAL AS THE                    
 SURFACE LOW TRACKS TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST. THE STRONG FORCING AND               
 HIGH PRECIPITATION RATES WILL KEEP PRECIPITATION TYPE ON THE COLD              
 END OF THE SPECTRUM IN CENTRAL AND SOUTH LOCATIONS WHERE THE                   
 THERMAL PROFILE ALLOWS MIXED PRECIPITATION. ALL SNOW IN THE TRI                
 CITIES AND THUMB LOOKS GOOD WITH BRIEF MIXES OF SLEET. PLAN TO KEEP            
 ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOW AND ICE AS IS WITH THE 00Z MODELS COMING IN              
 MORE IN LINE WITH RESPECT TO QPF. THE ONLY LIMITING FACTOR FOR                 
 ICING WILL BE NEAR THE OHIO BORDER WHERE TEMPERATURES WILL HOVER               
 AROUND THE FREEZING MARK NEAR THE LAKE ERIE SHORELINE, AT LEAST                
 UNTIL THE NORTHEAST WINDS INCREASE LATER IN THE NIGHT.                         
 &&                                                                             
 .PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 648 PM EST SUN JAN 14 2007                           
 AVIATION...                                                                    
 ANOTHER ROUND OF MIXED PRECIPITATION IS ON TAP FOR TONIGHT AND                 
 MONDAY MORNING IN SE MICHIGAN. THE AMOUNT AND DURATION WILL HAVE               
 GREATER IMPACTS ON AVIATION THAN WHAT OCCURRED THIS MORNING. THE               
 DOMINANT PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL BE FREEZING RAIN AT DTW/DET,                  
 SLEET AND SNOW AT FNT, AND SNOW AT MBS. THE WINDOW OF HEAVIEST                 
 PRECIPITATION WILL BE 06Z-14Z AT ALL TERMINALS MARKED BY IFR                   
 CEILING AND VISIBILITY.                                                        
 SOME LIGHT SNOW AT MBS AND LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE ELSEWHERE WILL               
 LINGER TOWARD NOON, FOLLOWED BY VISIBILITY AND CEILING CONDITIONS              
 IMPROVING TO VFR AND MVFR RESPECTIVELY BY SUNSET MONDAY EVENING.               
 PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 329 PM EST SUN JAN 14 2007                            
 SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND MONDAY                                                
 NOW THAT THE ROUND OF MIXED PRECIPITATION FROM THIS MORNING HAS                
 ENDED...THE ATTENTION TURNS TO A GATHERING STORM OVER THE SOUTHERN             
 PLAINS. A STRONG SHORTWAVE THAT HAS LIFTED AROUND THE BASE OF THE              
 MEAN WESTERN CONUS TROUGH INTO THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS WILL BE             
 RESPONSIBLE FOR AN EXPANDING AREA OF PRECIPITATION...WHICH WILL                
 PROGRESS QUICKLY INTO THE AREA TOWARD MIDNIGHT. THIS FEATURE HAS               
 ALREADY BEEN RESPONSIBLE FOR SIGNIFICANT FREEZING RAIN/SLEET OVER              
 PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TODAY...WITH QUITE A BIT OF THUNDER            
 OVER OKLAHOMA/NORTHERN TEXAS.                                                  
 12Z NAM HAS EXPANDED UPON "ITS" 06Z IDEA OF THROWING MORE MOISTURE             
 AND HENCE QPF INTO THE AREA LATE TONIGHT. THIS LEADS TO WIDESPREAD             
 75 TO NEAR 1.00 INCH TOTALS. IT ALSO BRINGS IN A STRONG ELEVATED               
 WARM LAYER WITH THIS SURGE...LEADING TO MORE FREEZING RAIN/SLEET.              
 GFS REMAINS MORE SUBDUED IN BOTH RESPECTS. THESE DIFFERENCES DO POSE           
 PROBLEMS IN BOTH PRECIPITATION TYPE/AMOUNT FORECASTS...WITH THE NAM            
 SUPPORTING SOLID WARNING CRITERIA CWA-WIDE...AND GFS NOT.                      
 NGM/GEM/LOCALWRF AND VARIOUS EXPERIMENTAL FSL RUC RUNS SUGGEST A               
 BLEND OF THE TWO...WHICH IS NOT TOO SURPRISING. THESE SOLUTIONS                
 SUPPORT WARNING CRITERIA FOR MOST COUNTIES...WITH ONLY A FEW ON THE            
 EDGE. IT IS WORTH NOTING THAT NAM WAS FAR SUPERIOR WITH THE QUARTER            
 INCH BAND OF SNOW/SLEET THAT MOVED THROUGH THE AREA THIS MORNING.              
 GIVEN THIS FACT...AND RADAR TRENDS THROUGH THE PLAINS/MISSISSIPPI              
 VALLEY SO FAR...FEEL THAT GIVING A BIT MORE WEIGHT TO THE NAM IS               
 PROBABLY THE WAY TO GO...SO AN UPGRADE TO VARIOUS WARNINGS SEEMS               
 REASONABLE. EVEN IF A 50/50 COMPROMISE IS USED...MOST COUNTIES                 
 SHOULD RECEIVE ENOUGH SNOW AND/OR ICE ACCUMULATIONS TO SUPPORT THE             
 WARNING CRITERIA.                                                              
 SO...THE PLAN IS TO GO WITH A HEAVY SNOW WARNING ACROSS THE SAGINAW            
 VALLEY AND NORTHERN THUMB WHERE PRECIPITATION WILL BE PRETTY MUCH              
 ALL SNOW. COUNTIES ALONG I-69 WILL HAVE A WINTER STORM WARNING FOR             
 THE MIXTURE OF SNOW/SLEET SOME FREEZING RAIN. MEANWHILE...THE MAIN             
 HAZARD FOR THE "M-59" COUNTIES SOUTH WILL BE FREEZING RAIN...SO AN             
 ICE STORM WARNING FITS WELL. THERE MAY BE SOME LOCATIONS NEAR LAKES            
 ERIE/ST CLAIR THAT WILL HOVER AT/ABOVE FREEZING...BUT MOST AREAS               
 SHOULD RECEIVED A PROLONGED FREEZING RAIN EVENT.                               
 ALMOST ALL THE THE PRECIPITATION FALLS BETWEEN 04Z-12Z...WITH THE              
 TAIL END OF THE EVENT LINGERING INTO MONDAY MORNING. WARNINGS WILL             
 BE TIMED ACCORDINGLY.                                                          
 LONG TERM...LATE MONDAY THROUGH SUNDAY                                         
 LAKE ENHANCED SNOWS WITHIN THE RESIDUAL DEFORMATION AXIS SHOULD                
 TRANSITION TO CLEANER BANDED STRUCTURES ACROSS LAKE HURON LATE                 
 MONDAY.  INVERSION HEIGHTS...AS PER THE 12Z NAM...ARE PROJECTED TO             
 START AROUND 5-6KFT MONDAY AFTERNOON AND LIFT TO 8-9KFT MONDAY                 
 NIGHT.  THERE WILL BE AMPLE MOISTURE WITHIN AND ABOVE THE CONVECTIVE           
 LAYER TO SUPPORT LAKE-EFFECT SNOWS.  THE PRIMARY LIMITING FACTOR               
 WILL BE THAT THE WINDS ARE BACKING THROUGH THE TIME PERIOD...HELPING           
 TO DISTRIBUTE THE SNOWFALL COVERAGE AND REDUCING THE CHANCES THAT              
 ANY ONE LOCATION SEES A PROLONGED PERIOD OF SNOW.  BY TUESDAY                  
 MORNING THE CONVECTIVE LAYER FLOW SHOULD BE NORTHWESTERLY...KEEPING            
 THE THUMB OUT OF THE SITES.                                                    
 THE ATMOSPHERE WILL SETTLE DOWN ACROSS THE REGION FOR THE REMAINING            
 PORTION OF THE FORECAST.  WEAK RIDGING IN THE PRESENCE OF A GENERAL            
 LOWERING OF HEIGHTS ALOFT WILL SET THE STAGE FOR SEASONABLE                    
 CONDITIONS.  THE NEXT SHOT AT SNOW HOLDS OFF UNTIL THE END OF                  
 WEEK...ONCE THE LONG WAVE TROUGHS TRIES TO RE-ESTABLISH ACROSS                 
 EASTERN NORTH AMERICA.  ONCE THIS OCCURS...NORTHWEST FLOW AND                  
 EMBEDDED FAST SHORTWAVES WILL BEGIN TO FREQUENT THE REGION.                    
 &&                                                                             
 .DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                            
 MI...ICE STORM WARNING...MIZ068-MIZ069-MIZ070-MIZ075-MIZ076-MIZ082-            
      MIZ083 UNTIL NOON MONDAY.                                                 
      HEAVY SNOW WARNING...MIZ047-MIZ048-MIZ049-MIZ053-MIZ054-MIZ055            
      UNTIL NOON MONDAY.                                                        
      WINTER STORM WARNING...MIZ060-MIZ061-MIZ062-MIZ063 UNTIL NOON             
      MONDAY.                                                                   
 LAKE HURON...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...NEARSHORE WATERS FROM PORT                 
              AUSTIN TO PORT HURON INCLUDING SAGINAW BAY...1 AM                 
              MONDAY TO 7 AM TUESDAY.                                           
 LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.                                                          
 MI WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...1 AM MONDAY TO 5 PM MONDAY.    
 &&                                                                             
 $$                                                                             
 UPDATE/AVIATION...BT                                                           
 SHORT TERM...DG                                                                
 LONG TERM....MANN                                                              
 YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE           
 AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).                                   
</pre> mi                                                                       

 AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                       
 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI                                       
 915 PM EST SUN JAN 14 2007                                                     
 .UPDATE...                                                                     
 ALL FCST DETAILS AND HEADLINES FOR TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY APPEAR TO            
 BE IN EXCELLENT SHAPE. NO CHANGES TO OUR HEADLINES OR FCST CHANGES             
 WILL BE NECESSARY. 00Z NAM GUIDANCE IS BEGINNING TO ROLL IN AND                
 STILL SUGGESTS POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT SNOW ACCUMS FROM LATE                 
 TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING ACROSS OUR CENTRAL AND NORTHERN CWA.            
 THE ICE STORM WARNING FOR OUR SOUTHERN TWO TIERS OF COUNTIES STILL             
 LOOKS GOOD AS WELL. KGRR 88D RADAR TRENDS SUGGEST A MIX OF FZRA AND            
 SLEET WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE I-94 CORRIDOR DURING THE NEXT 1 TO 2              
 HRS. A SAMPLING OF RUC FCST SOUNDINGS TAKEN ALONG I-94 FROM AZO EAST           
 TO JXN SUGGESTS THAT PCPN DOWN THERE MAY BEGIN AS A PERIOD OF SLEET            
 (AND PERHAPS SNOW) BEFORE WARMER AIR ALOFT (FROM AROUND 750 TO 900             
 MB) MOVES IN BETWEEN 04Z AND 06Z AS THE SW LLJ INCREASES... THUS               
 INCREASING THE THREAT FOR MDT FZRA AFTER 11 PM THROUGH AROUND                  
 DAYBREAK MONDAY.                                                               
 OUR FCST AND ALL HEADLINES LOOK EXCELLENT. WE WILL ISSUE A QUICK               
 ZONE UPDATE JUST TO TWEAK FCST WORDING FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD.               
 &&                                                                             
 .GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                            
 ICE STORM WARNING 10 PM TONIGHT TO NOON MONDAY...                              
 ALLEGAN-BARRY-EATON-INGHAM-VAN BUREN-KALAMAZOO-CALHOUN-JACKSON-                
 HEAVY SNOW WARNING MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO NOON MONDAY...                          
 MASON-LAKE-OSCEOLA-CLARE-OCEANA-NEWAYGO-MECOSTA-ISABELLA-MUSKEGON-             
 MONTCALM-GRATIOT-                                                              
 WINTER STORM WARNING 10 PM TONIGHT TO NOON MONDAY...                           
 OTTAWA-KENT-IONIA-CLINTON-                                                     
 SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ST JOE TO MANISTEE MIDNIGHT TONIGHT THROUGH           
 TUESDAY EVENING.                                                               
 &&                                                                             
 $$                                                                             
 LAURENS                                                                        
</pre> mi                                                                       

 AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                       
 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI                                    
 648 PM EST SUN JAN 14 2007                                                     
 .AVIATION...                                                                   
 ANOTHER ROUND OF MIXED PRECIPITATION IS ON TAP FOR TONIGHT AND                 
 MONDAY MORNING IN SE MICHIGAN. THE AMOUNT AND DURATION WILL HAVE               
 GREATER IMPACTS ON AVIATION THAN WHAT OCCURRED THIS MORNING. THE               
 DOMINANT PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL BE FREEZING RAIN AT DTW/DET,                  
 SLEET AND SNOW AT FNT, AND SNOW AT MBS. THE WINDOW OF HEAVIEST                 
 PRECIPITATION WILL BE 06Z-14Z AT ALL TERMINALS MARKED BY IFR                   
 CEILING AND VISIBILITY.                                                        
 SOME LIGHT SNOW AT MBS AND LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE ELSEWHERE WILL               
 LINGER TOWARD NOON, FOLLOWED BY VISIBILITY AND CEILING CONDITIONS              
 IMPROVING TO VFR AND MVFR RESPECTIVELY BY SUNSET MONDAY EVENING.               
 &&                                                                             
 .PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 329 PM EST SUN JAN 14 2007                           
 SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND MONDAY                                                
 NOW THAT THE ROUND OF MIXED PRECIPITATION FROM THIS MORNING HAS                
 ENDED...THE ATTENTION TURNS TO A GATHERING STORM OVER THE SOUTHERN             
 PLAINS. A STRONG SHORTWAVE THAT HAS LIFTED AROUND THE BASE OF THE              
 MEAN WESTERN CONUS TROUGH INTO THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS WILL BE             
 RESPONSIBLE FOR AN EXPANDING AREA OF PRECIPITATION...WHICH WILL                
 PROGRESS QUICKLY INTO THE AREA TOWARD MIDNIGHT. THIS FEATURE HAS               
 ALREADY BEEN RESPONSIBLE FOR SIGNIFICANT FREEZING RAIN/SLEET OVER              
 PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TODAY...WITH QUITE A BIT OF THUNDER            
 OVER OKLAHOMA/NORTHERN TEXAS.                                                  
 12Z NAM HAS EXPANDED UPON "ITS" 06Z IDEA OF THROWING MORE MOISTURE             
 AND HENCE QPF INTO THE AREA LATE TONIGHT. THIS LEADS TO WIDESPREAD             
 75 TO NEAR 1.00 INCH TOTALS. IT ALSO BRINGS IN A STRONG ELEVATED               
 WARM LAYER WITH THIS SURGE...LEADING TO MORE FREEZING RAIN/SLEET.              
 GFS REMAINS MORE SUBDUED IN BOTH RESPECTS. THESE DIFFERENCES DO POSE           
 PROBLEMS IN BOTH PRECIPITATION TYPE/AMOUNT FORECASTS...WITH THE NAM            
 SUPPORTING SOLID WARNING CRITERIA CWA-WIDE...AND GFS NOT.                      
 NGM/GEM/LOCALWRF AND VARIOUS EXPERIMENTAL FSL RUC RUNS SUGGEST A               
 BLEND OF THE TWO...WHICH IS NOT TOO SURPRISING. THESE SOLUTIONS                
 SUPPORT WARNING CRITERIA FOR MOST COUNTIES...WITH ONLY A FEW ON THE            
 EDGE. IT IS WORTH NOTING THAT NAM WAS FAR SUPERIOR WITH THE QUARTER            
 INCH BAND OF SNOW/SLEET THAT MOVED THROUGH THE AREA THIS MORNING.              
 GIVEN THIS FACT...AND RADAR TRENDS THROUGH THE PLAINS/MISSISSIPPI              
 VALLEY SO FAR...FEEL THAT GIVING A BIT MORE WEIGHT TO THE NAM IS               
 PROBABLY THE WAY TO GO...SO AN UPGRADE TO VARIOUS WARNINGS SEEMS               
 REASONABLE. EVEN IF A 50/50 COMPROMISE IS USED...MOST COUNTIES                 
 SHOULD RECEIVE ENOUGH SNOW AND/OR ICE ACCUMULATIONS TO SUPPORT THE             
 WARNING CRITERIA.                                                              
 SO...THE PLAN IS TO GO WITH A HEAVY SNOW WARNING ACROSS THE SAGINAW            
 VALLEY AND NORTHERN THUMB WHERE PRECIPITATION WILL BE PRETTY MUCH              
 ALL SNOW. COUNTIES ALONG I-69 WILL HAVE A WINTER STORM WARNING FOR             
 THE MIXTURE OF SNOW/SLEET SOME FREEZING RAIN. MEANWHILE...THE MAIN             
 HAZARD FOR THE "M-59" COUNTIES SOUTH WILL BE FREEZING RAIN...SO AN             
 ICE STORM WARNING FITS WELL. THERE MAY BE SOME LOCATIONS NEAR LAKES            
 ERIE/ST CLAIR THAT WILL HOVER AT/ABOVE FREEZING...BUT MOST AREAS               
 SHOULD RECEIVED A PROLONGED FREEZING RAIN EVENT.                               
 ALMOST ALL THE THE PRECIPITATION FALLS BETWEEN 04Z-12Z...WITH THE              
 TAIL END OF THE EVENT LINGERING INTO MONDAY MORNING. WARNINGS WILL             
 BE TIMED ACCORDINGLY.                                                          
 LONG TERM...LATE MONDAY THROUGH SUNDAY                                         
 LAKE ENHANCED SNOWS WITHIN THE RESIDUAL DEFORMATION AXIS SHOULD                
 TRANSITION TO CLEANER BANDED STRUCTURES ACROSS LAKE HURON LATE                 
 MONDAY.  INVERSION HEIGHTS...AS PER THE 12Z NAM...ARE PROJECTED TO             
 START AROUND 5-6KFT MONDAY AFTERNOON AND LIFT TO 8-9KFT MONDAY                 
 NIGHT.  THERE WILL BE AMPLE MOISTURE WITHIN AND ABOVE THE CONVECTIVE           
 LAYER TO SUPPORT LAKE-EFFECT SNOWS.  THE PRIMARY LIMITING FACTOR               
 WILL BE THAT THE WINDS ARE BACKING THROUGH THE TIME PERIOD...HELPING           
 TO DISTRIBUTE THE SNOWFALL COVERAGE AND REDUCING THE CHANCES THAT              
 ANY ONE LOCATION SEES A PROLONGED PERIOD OF SNOW.  BY TUESDAY                  
 MORNING THE CONVECTIVE LAYER FLOW SHOULD BE NORTHWESTERLY...KEEPING            
 THE THUMB OUT OF THE SITES.                                                    
 THE ATMOSPHERE WILL SETTLE DOWN ACROSS THE REGION FOR THE REMAINING            
 PORTION OF THE FORECAST.  WEAK RIDGING IN THE PRESENCE OF A GENERAL            
 LOWERING OF HEIGHTS ALOFT WILL SET THE STAGE FOR SEASONABLE                    
 CONDITIONS.  THE NEXT SHOT AT SNOW HOLDS OFF UNTIL THE END OF                  
 WEEK...ONCE THE LONG WAVE TROUGHS TRIES TO RE-ESTABLISH ACROSS                 
 EASTERN NORTH AMERICA.  ONCE THIS OCCURS...NORTHWEST FLOW AND                  
 EMBEDDED FAST SHORTWAVES WILL BEGIN TO FREQUENT THE REGION.                    
 &&                                                                             
 .DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                            
 MI...ICE STORM WARNING...MIZ068-MIZ069-MIZ070-MIZ075-MIZ076-MIZ082-            
      MIZ083...10 PM SUNDAY TO NOON MONDAY.                                     
      HEAVY SNOW WARNING...MIZ047-MIZ048-MIZ049-MIZ053-MIZ054-                  
      MIZ055...MIDNIGHT MONDAY TO NOON MONDAY.                                  
      WINTER STORM WARNING...MIZ060-MIZ061-MIZ062-MIZ063...MIDNIGHT             
      MONDAY TO NOON MONDAY.                                                    
 LAKE HURON...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...NEARSHORE WATERS FROM PORT                 
              AUSTIN TO PORT HURON INCLUDING SAGINAW BAY...1 AM                 
              MONDAY TO 7 AM TUESDAY.                                           
 LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.                                                          
 MI WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...1 AM MONDAY TO 5 PM MONDAY.    
 &&                                                                             
 $$                                                                             
 AVIATION...BT                                                                  
 SHORT TERM...DG                                                                
 LONG TERM....MANN                                                              
 YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE           
 AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).                                   
</pre> mi                                                                       

 AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                       
 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                          
 430 PM EST SUN JAN 14 2007                                                     
 .SYNOPSIS AND SHORT TERM...                                                    
 WATER VAPOR LOOP AND RUC/LAPS ANALYSIS SHOW SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT BUT           
 COLDER AIR REMAINS ENTRENCHED OVR PLAINS INTO UPR LAKES. FRONTAL               
 BOUNDARY HAS SLIPPED SOUTH OF UPR MI ATTM. WINDS BECOMING NORTHERLY            
 IN WAKE OF TROUGH. DESPITE LOW INVERSION AROUND 3 KFT PER MIDDAY               
 TAMDAR DATA AT CYQT AND KSAW...LK EFFECT HAS BEEN PROFICIENT WITH              
 SOME ACCUMS REPORTED BY SPOTTER IN MOHAWK IN HOUGHTON COUNTY. LATEST           
 RADAR AND VIS SAT EVEN SHOW ENHANCED CONVERGENCE BAND BTWN MQT AND             
 STDM4 OVR SCNTRL LK SUPERIOR. TO THE SW OF UPR LAKES LARGE AREA OF             
 MOSTLY SNOW IS LIFTING NE ACROSS NEB AND WESTERN IA. THIS SNOW IS              
 ASSOCIATED WITH MID LEVEL LOW IN CNTRL KS AND IT NOW LOOKS LIKE THIS           
 SNOW WILL MAKE IT INTO UPR MI LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. SNOW AMOUNTS           
 AND HEADLINES ARE MAIN CONCERNS IN SHORT TERM.                                 
 NORTHERLY FLOW TONIGHT WITH TEMPS AT TOP OF INVERSION AROUND -17C              
 WILL KEEP LK EFFECT GOING THROUGH EVENING. NOTED CONVERGENCE BAND              
 MAY ENHANCE SNOWFALL BRIEFLY THIS EVENING OVR NCNTRL. OTHERWISE...             
 EXPECT SNOW TO INCREASE AFTER MIDNIGHT AS SYNOPTIC SNOW ARRIVES FM             
 THE SOUTH. HOW FAR NORTH WILL SHIELD OF DEEPER MOISTURE/UPR LEVEL              
 FORCING AND SYNOPTIC SNOW SURGE WAS MAIN QUESTION OF THE SHIFT.                
 UNLIKE YDY FOR THE MOST PART GFS/NAM/UKMET/ECMWF/CANADIAN GEM ARE              
 ALL ON SAME PAGE. BLEND OF QPF OUTPUT GIVES MOST AREAS A SOLID 0.20            
 TO 0.25 INCHES OF LIQUID 00Z MON THROUGH 00Z TUE. USING BUFKIT COBB            
 SNOW-WATER RATIOS AND UWM ROEBBER SNOW RATIO FORECAST PAGE GIVES               
 HIGHER RATIO THAN TYPICAL SYNOPTIC EVENT...MORE IN LINE WITH 15-20             
 TO 1. IN GENERAL...THIS GIVES TOTAL AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES OVR               
 SOUTHERN TIER...WHICH JUSTIFIES AN ADVY THROUGH LATE TOMORROW. COORD           
 THIS WITH DLH AND GRB.                                                         
 BASED ON AIRMASS OVERHEAD AND WAY LK EFFECT HAS TURNED OUT LAST                
 FEW DAYS...EXPECT EVEN HIGHER RATIOS OVR PRONE LK EFFECT AREAS.                
 LOWER LEVEL WINDS THROUGH H85 ON AVERAGE FM 360 DIRECTION...ALTHOUGH           
 NAM/CANADIAN GEM ARE A BIT MORE TOWARD 030. INVERSION HEIGHTS ARE              
 FAIRLY LOW...5-7KFT...BUT WITH DEEP MOISTURE PRESENT...AND TEMPS AT            
 TOP OF INVERSION TOWARD -18C...SIGNIFICANT LAKE CONTRIBUTION IS                
 EXPECTED. UPGRADED TO LK EFFECT SNOW WARNING FOR FAR WEST AND NCNTRL           
 UPR MI. SOME LOCALIZED AREAS MAY SEE AROUND A FOOT OF SNOW FM THE              
 EVENT. ALTHOUGH WINDS ARE NOT AS FAVORABLE FOR OTHER ZONES NEAR LK             
 SUPERIOR...SYNOPTIC MOISTURE AND SOME LAKE CONTRIBUTION TIPS SCALES            
 TOWARD ADVY FOR ALL BUT LUCE COUNTY AS NORTHEAST WINDS DO NOT                  
 PRODUCE PROVIDE SUITABLE FETCH FOR LK INDUCED CONVECTION. ONE NOTE             
 ABOUT THE KEWEENAW. AIRMASS LURKING OVER NORTHERN LAKE SUPERIOR IS             
 QUITE DRY AND SOUNDINGS EVEN FM THE HIGHER RESOLUTION MODELS                   
 INDICATE SHARP CUTOFF TO DEEPER MOISTURE. THIS MAY IMPACT INTENSITY            
 OF INDIVIDUAL SNOW BANDS. STILL...SINCE LAKE IS SHOWING NO ICE ON IT           
 AND WATER TEMPS ARE RUNNING +3C TO +4C AND THERE IS SOME SYNOPTIC              
 SUPPORT...BELIEVE THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NORTHERN KEWEENAW AND TOWARD           
 ONTONAGON COUNTY COULD EEK INTO ADVY CRITERIA. ALL LK SUPERIOR                 
 HEADLINES EXPIRE LATE MON EVENING.                                             
 .LONG TERM...(MON NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)                                        
 MON NIGHT...AS THE SYNOPTIC SCALE SUPPORT WITH THE QVECTOR CONV WITH           
 THE MID LVL TROF AND DEEPER MOISTURE DEPARTS THE SNOW OVER SOUTH               
 UPPER MICHIGAN WILL TAPER OFF QUICKLY EARLY IN THE EVENING...AND THE           
 LES INTENSITY NORTH WILL DIMINISH SIGNIFICANTLY. HOWEVER...THE NAM             
 AND GFS CONTINUE TO INDICATE DECENT LOW LEVEL CONV INTO N CNTRL                
 UPPER MI (VCNTY MARQEUTTE) AND OVER THE WEST(NEAR KIWD) THROUGH 06Z.           
 TEMPS OF -18C NEAR THE TOP OF THE 4K FT INVERSION SHOULD STILL FAVOR           
 BANDS OF LIGHT TO MODERATE LES. AS THE WINDS BACK TO NW OVERNIGHT              
 THE LES FOCUS WILL SHIFT INTO AREAS FROM KP53 EASTWARD. THE SHORTER            
 FETCH INTO W UPR MI AND EVEN LOWER INVERSION HEIGHTS SHOULD ALLOW              
 LES TO TAPER OFF TO JUST LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES WITH ONLY MINOR                
 AMOUNTS AFT 06Z.                                                               
 TUE...ALTHOUGH THE SFC RDG WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA...LAKE INDUCED             
 TROUGHING WILL KEEP NW OR NW WINDS GOING WITH BEST LOW LVL CONV EAST           
 OF MARQEUTTE. BY AFTERNOON...THE COMBINATION BACKING WINDS AND                 
 ADDITIONAL LOW LEVEL DRYING...WAA AND BACKING WINDS SHOULD BRING AN            
 END TO ANY SIGNIFICANT LES. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE OVER THE FAR E CWA           
 WHERE LONGER FETCH AND CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE DEPARTING 850 MB                
 THERMAL TROF WILL KEEP LIGHT LES GOING.                                        
 WED INTO THU...GLBL MDLS ARE CONSISTENT WITH PATTERN WITH STRONG WAA           
 DEVELOPING AS THE SFC RDG SINKS SE AND A PLAINS SHRTWV AND SFC TROF            
 MOVE TOWARD THE AREA. AS A RESULT...TEMPS SHOULD REBOUND TO READINGS           
 AOA NORMAL WED. MODERATE QVECTOR CONV WITH THE PROMINENT 500 MB TROF           
 WARRANT AT LEAST CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE CWA WITH LES CHANCES                   
 INCREASING BY LATE THU AS CAA TAKES OVER BEHIND THE SFC FRONT/TROF             
 AS 850 MB TEMPS FALL TO NEAR -15C.                                             
 FRI THROUGH SUN...GOOD LES CHANCES CONTINUE IN GENERAL FOR NW FLOW             
 FAVORED LOCATIONS. NW NORTHERN STREAM FLOW WILL BRING A FEW CLIPPER            
 SHRTWVS THROUGH THE AREA BUT LESS CERTAINTY WITH TIMING/STRENGTH OF            
 THESE FEATURES AND IMPACT ON WIND DIRECTION.                                   
 &&                                                                             
 .MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                            
 LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 11 PM EST                 
 MONDAY FOR MIZ001>004-006-084-085.                                             
 LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING FROM 11 PM EST /10 PM CST/ THIS EVENING               
 TO 11 PM EST /10 PM CST/ MONDAY FOR MIZ005-009.                                
 SNOW ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 11 PM EST MONDAY FOR MIZ013.                        
 SNOW ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6 PM CST MONDAY FOR                     
 MIZ010>012.                                                                    
 &&                                                                             
 $$                                                                             
 JLA(SHORT TERM)                                                                
 JLB(LONG TERM)                                                                 
</pre> mi                                                                       

 AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                       
 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI                                    
 329 PM EST SUN JAN 14 2007                                                     
 .SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND MONDAY                                               
 NOW THAT THE ROUND OF MIXED PRECIPITATION FROM THIS MORNING HAS                
 ENDED...THE ATTENTION TURNS TO A GATHERING STORM OVER THE SOUTHERN             
 PLAINS. A STRONG SHORTWAVE THAT HAS LIFTED AROUND THE BASE OF THE              
 MEAN WESTERN CONUS TROUGH INTO THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS WILL BE             
 RESPONSIBLE FOR AN EXPANDING AREA OF PRECIPITATION...WHICH WILL                
 PROGRESS QUICKLY INTO THE AREA TOWARD MIDNIGHT. THIS FEATURE HAS               
 ALREADY BEEN RESPONSIBLE FOR SIGNIFICANT FREEZING RAIN/SLEET OVER              
 PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TODAY...WITH QUITE A BIT OF THUNDER            
 OVER OKLAHOMA/NORTHERN TEXAS.                                                  
 12Z NAM HAS EXPANDED UPON "ITS" 06Z IDEA OF THROWING MORE MOISTURE             
 AND HENCE QPF INTO THE AREA LATE TONIGHT. THIS LEADS TO WIDESPREAD             
 .75 TO NEAR 1.00 INCH TOTALS. IT ALSO BRINGS IN A STRONG ELEVATED              
 WARM LAYER WITH THIS SURGE...LEADING TO MORE FREEZING RAIN/SLEET.              
 GFS REMAINS MORE SUBDUED IN BOTH RESPECTS. THESE DIFFERENCES DO POSE           
 PROBLEMS IN BOTH PRECIPITATION TYPE/AMOUNT FORECASTS...WITH THE NAM            
 SUPPORTING SOLID WARNING CRITERIA CWA-WIDE...AND GFS NOT.                      
 NGM/GEM/LOCALWRF AND VARIOUS EXPERIMENTAL FSL RUC RUNS SUGGEST A               
 BLEND OF THE TWO...WHICH IS NOT TOO SURPRISING. THESE SOLUTIONS                
 SUPPORT WARNING CRITERIA FOR MOST COUNTIES...WITH ONLY A FEW ON THE            
 EDGE. IT IS WORTH NOTING THAT NAM WAS FAR SUPERIOR WITH THE QUARTER            
 INCH BAND OF SNOW/SLEET THAT MOVED THROUGH THE AREA THIS MORNING.              
 GIVEN THIS FACT...AND RADAR TRENDS THROUGH THE PLAINS/MISSISSIPPI              
 VALLEY SO FAR...FEEL THAT GIVING A BIT MORE WEIGHT TO THE NAM IS               
 PROBABLY THE WAY TO GO...SO AN UPGRADE TO VARIOUS WARNINGS SEEMS               
 REASONABLE. EVEN IF A 50/50 COMPROMISE IS USED...MOST COUNTIES                 
 SHOULD RECEIVE ENOUGH SNOW AND/OR ICE ACCUMULATIONS TO SUPPORT THE             
 WARNING CRITERIA.                                                              
 SO...THE PLAN IS TO GO WITH A HEAVY SNOW WARNING ACROSS THE SAGINAW            
 VALLEY AND NORTHERN THUMB WHERE PRECIPITATION WILL BE PRETTY MUCH              
 ALL SNOW. COUNTIES ALONG I-69 WILL HAVE A WINTER STORM WARNING FOR             
 THE MIXTURE OF SNOW/SLEET SOME FREEZING RAIN. MEANWHILE...THE MAIN             
 HAZARD FOR THE "M-59" COUNTIES SOUTH WILL BE FREEZING RAIN...SO AN             
 ICE STORM WARNING FITS WELL. THERE MAY BE SOME LOCATIONS NEAR LAKES            
 ERIE/ST CLAIR THAT WILL HOVER AT/ABOVE FREEZING...BUT MOST AREAS               
 SHOULD RECEIVED A PROLONGED FREEZING RAIN EVENT.                               
 ALMOST ALL THE THE PRECIPITATION FALLS BETWEEN 04Z-12Z...WITH THE              
 TAIL END OF THE EVENT LINGERING INTO MONDAY MORNING. WARNINGS WILL             
 BE TIMED ACCORDINGLY.                                                          
 &&                                                                             
 .LONG TERM...LATE MONDAY THROUGH SUNDAY                                        
 LAKE ENHANCED SNOWS WITHIN THE RESIDUAL DEFORMATION AXIS SHOULD                
 TRANSITION TO CLEANER BANDED STRUCTURES ACROSS LAKE HURON LATE                 
 MONDAY.  INVERSION HEIGHTS...AS PER THE 12Z NAM...ARE PROJECTED TO             
 START AROUND 5-6KFT MONDAY AFTERNOON AND LIFT TO 8-9KFT MONDAY                 
 NIGHT.  THERE WILL BE AMPLE MOISTURE WITHIN AND ABOVE THE CONVECTIVE           
 LAYER TO SUPPORT LAKE-EFFECT SNOWS.  THE PRIMARY LIMITING FACTOR               
 WILL BE THAT THE WINDS ARE BACKING THROUGH THE TIME PERIOD...HELPING           
 TO DISTRIBUTE THE SNOWFALL COVERAGE AND REDUCING THE CHANCES THAT              
 ANY ONE LOCATION SEES A PROLONGED PERIOD OF SNOW.  BY TUESDAY                  
 MORNING THE CONVECTIVE LAYER FLOW SHOULD BE NORTHWESTERLY...KEEPING            
 THE THUMB OUT OF THE SITES.                                                    
 THE ATMOSPHERE WILL SETTLE DOWN ACROSS THE REGION FOR THE REMAINING            
 PORTION OF THE FORECAST.  WEAK RIDGING IN THE PRESENCE OF A GENERAL            
 LOWERING OF HEIGHTS ALOFT WILL SET THE STAGE FOR SEASONABLE                    
 CONDITIONS.  THE NEXT SHOT AT SNOW HOLDS OFF UNTIL THE END OF                  
 WEEK...ONCE THE LONG WAVE TROUGHS TRIES TO RE-ESTABLISH ACROSS                 
 EASTERN NORTH AMERICA.  ONCE THIS OCCURS...NORTHWEST FLOW AND                  
 EMBEDDED FAST SHORTWAVES WILL BEGIN TO FREQUENT THE REGION.                    
 &&                                                                             
 .PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 1208 PM EST SUN JAN 14 2007                          
 AVIATION...                                                                    
 FIRST WAVE OF SNOW/SLEET/FREEZING RAIN IS MOVING OUT OF THE AREA AND           
 SHOULD PRETTY MUCH BE CLEAR OF THE FORECAST SITES BY 18Z...LEAVING             
 VARIOUS LEVELS OF STRATUS...WITH CEILINGS EITHER SIDE OF 1000 FEET.            
 THIS LULL IS RATHER BRIEF...HOWEVER...AS A MUCH STRONG WAVE WITH A             
 BETTER TAP OF GULF MOISTURE IS ALREADY HEADING OUT OF THE SOUTHERN             
 PLAINS TOWARDS THE LOWER LAKES/OHIO VALLEY. THIS WILL SPREAD A MUCH            
 LARGER AREA OF PRECIPITATION INTO THE AREA BY AROUND MIDNIGHT...W/             
 HEAVIER AMOUNTS EXPECTED CWA-WIDE. WILL USE A 12Z NAM SOLUTION THAT            
 IS MODIFIED SLIGHTLY TOWARD THE FURTHER SOUTH/COLDER GFS TO GIVE A             
 FIRST APPROXIMATION OF PRECIPITATION TYPE. THIS GIVES KMBS PRETTY              
 MUCH ALL SNOW...KFNT A MIX OF SN/PL AND PERHAPS SOME FZRA...WHILE              
 KDET/KDTW RECEIVE MAINLY FZRA...W/ TEMPERATURES EVENTUALLY EDGING              
 CLOSE TO OR ABOVE FREEZING BY MONDAY MORNING. EXPECT CONDITIONS TO             
 DETERIORATE VERY QUICKLY AROUND MIDNIGHT...WITH SIGNIFICANT SNOW               
 AND/OR ICE ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED.                                             
 &&                                                                             
 .DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                            
 MI...ICE STORM WARNING...MIZ068-MIZ069-MIZ070-MIZ075-MIZ076-MIZ082-            
      MIZ083...10 PM SUNDAY TO NOON MONDAY.                                     
      HEAVY SNOW WARNING...MIZ047-MIZ048-MIZ049-MIZ053-MIZ054-                  
      MIZ055...MIDNIGHT MONDAY TO NOON MONDAY.                                  
      WINTER STORM WARNING...MIZ060-MIZ061-MIZ062-MIZ063...MIDNIGHT             
      MONDAY TO NOON MONDAY.                                                    
 LAKE HURON...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...NEARSHORE WATERS FROM PORT AUSTIN TO PORT H
      MONDAY TO 7 AM TUESDAY.                                                   
 LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.                                                          
 MI WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...LEZ444...1 AM MONDAY TO 5 PM MO
 &&                                                                             
 $$                                                                             
 SHORT TERM...DG                                                                
 LONG TERM....MANN                                                              
 YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE           
 AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).                                   
</pre> mi                                                                       

 AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                       
 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                          
 550 AM EST SUN JAN 14 2007                                                     
 .DISCUSSION...                                                                 
 WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATED PLENTY OF MOISTURE STRETCHING FROM               
 NORTHWESTERN MEXICO...INTO THE NEW ENGLAND STATES ALONG AN                     
 ELONGATED LINE OF LOW PRESSURE.  SOME DRY AIR WAS ATTEMPTING TO                
 SLIDE INTO SOUTHERN ARIZONA AND NEW MEXICO.  THE RUC SHOWED THE                
 500MB CLOSED LOW STRETCHING FROM WYOMING THROUGH SOUTHERN UTAH.  THE           
 250MB JET...WITH A MAX SPEED OF 80KT WAS DIVING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE           
 PACIFIC COASTLINE...BEFORE KINKING BACK NORTHEASTWARD AT 110KT FROM            
 NORTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO THROUGH NEBRASKA...AND EASTWARD THROUGH NEW            
 YORK AT 130KT.  CLOSER TO HOME...A WEAK COLD FRONT WAS SLIDING                 
 SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS SOUTHERN LAKE SUPERIOR.  COLDEST -35C 850MB AIR           
 WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE AREA...CURRENTLY SLIDING EASTWARD OVER                  
 NORTHWESTERN JAMES BAY.  THIS IS MUCH COOLER THAN OUR -12 TO -15C              
 OVER THE UPPER PENINSULA.  STILL THIS WILL BE ENOUGH FOR LIGHT LAKE            
 EFFECT PRECIPITATION TODAY...GENERALLY AROUND AN INCH OR LESS.                 
 THE RELATIVELY DRY COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY SWEEP ACROSS             
 THE CWA THIS MORNING...WITH ENHANCED LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND                 
 VEERING WINDS AND INVERSION HEIGHTS BETWEEN 3 AND 4FT.  THE BEST               
 QVECTOR CONVERGENCE IS REMAINING WELL TO THE NORTH...SO CONDITIONS             
 WILL BE MARGINAL FOR MORE THEN LIGHT LES AS PREVIOUSLY                         
 STATED...AROUND AN INCH OR LESS. LOOKING AT THE IR SATELLITE...BANDS           
 ARE BEGINNING TO FORM ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF LAKE SUPERIOR.               
 THE SHOW SHOWERS SHOULD DIMINISH AND SPREAD OUT ACROSS THE AREA LATE           
 IN THE AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE SINKS SOUTHEASTWARD FROM CENTRAL             
 SASKATCHEWAN.                                                                  
 SOME VARIABILITY STILL REMAINS WITH THE FORECAST TRACK OF THE                  
 SURFACE LOW THAT WE ARE MOST INTERESTED IN.  THIS ONE IS MORE                  
 DIFFICULT TO PIN DOWN ON THE SURFACE MAP AS IT IS MORE                         
 ELONGATED...STRETCHING ACROSS SOUTHERN TEXAS...NORTHEASTWARD ALONG             
 THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY AND INTO THE SOUTHERN OHIO VALLEY.  BY            
 12Z MONDAY...MODELS ARE HAVING A TOUGH TIME FIGURING OUT WHERE THE             
 CENTER OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BE LOCATED.  IT WILL BE SOMEWHERE IN THE           
 CENTRAL TO NORTHERN OHIO VALLEY...EITHER ACROSS NE OHIO (00Z NAM               
 SOLUTION)...SOUTHWESTERN OHIO (12Z CANADIAN)...NORTHWESTERN                    
 PENNSYLVANIA (00Z RUC)...OR NORTHERN WEST VIRGINIA (18Z AND 00Z                
 GFS).  YES...THE LOCATION WILL HAVE AN AFFECT ON OUR REGION...AS THE           
 NORTHERN SHIELD OF PRECIPITATION HEADS OUR WAY AFTER 03Z                       
 MONDAY...AND POSSIBLY MAKING IT AS FAR NORTH AS HOUGHTON.  ADDED               
 LIKELY POPS FOR SOUTHERN AREA MONDAY AS THE BULK OF PRECIPITATION              
 HEADS OUR WAY.  PLENTY OF CLOUDS WILL ALSO BEGIN TO INVADE SUNDAY              
 NIGHT...AND REMAIN OVER THE CWA THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.                          
 ALSO FOR THIS TIME PERIOD...WE WILL BE MONITORING LAKE SUPERIOR AND            
 WINDS...AS A LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY HAS BEEN POSTED FOR MARQUETTE           
 AND ALGER COUNTIES FROM 4 AM UNTIL 7 PM MONDAY.  BUFKIT SOUNDING               
 INDICATE THAT THE NAM HAS DEEPER MOISTURE AVAILABLE NEAR THE                   
 MARQUETTE AREA...PARTICULARLY WHEN COMPARED TO THE DRIER SOUNDING AT           
 HOUGHTON.  THE NAM AND GFS ARE PRETTY CLOSE WITH THEIR SFC                     
 WINDS...UNTIL MONDAY NIGHT WHEN THE NAM BECOMES MORE NORTHWESTERLY             
 GIVEN THE DEEPER AND MORE WESTWARD SURFACE LOW ACROSS THE MID                  
 ATLANTIC...AND THE LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE APPROACHING FROM THE            
 WEST.  IN GENERAL...HAVE ANGLED THE FORECAST MORE IN LINE WITH THE             
 MORE MOIST GFS FOR THIS PERIOD.  WILL NEED TO MONITOR THE EXTREME              
 WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA FOR A POSSIBLE EXPANSION OF THE                    
 ADVISORY...WITH IMPRESSIVE LOOKING SOUNDING INFO AT IWD TONIGHT AS             
 WELL.                                                                          
 THEN FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...AS HIGH PRESSURE TRIES TO                 
 INVADE FROM THE WEST...A POSITIVELY TILTED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL             
 BE SLIDING ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST.  SHIFTING WINDS WILL NOT BE               
 FAVORABLE FOR ANY SUSTAINED LAKE EFFECT SNOW WITH HEAVY SNOWFALL               
 WITH THIS SYSTEM.  HOWEVER...HAVE STILL KEPT LIKELY POPS ACROSS THE            
 LAKE SHORE...WITH AN INCH OR TWO OF SNOW POSSIBLE.                             
 OTHER CHANGES FURTHER OUT IN THE FORECAST...DRIED THINGS OUT EARLIER           
 TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY.  ALSO WARMED UP TEMPERATURE DAY 4            
 (WEDNESDAY) BY SEVERAL DEGREES...GIVEN SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AND ONLY             
 SCT CLOUDS MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE FORECAST AREA                
 DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.                                                    
 &&                                                                             
 .MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                            
 LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 7 PM EST MONDAY FOR                     
 MIZ005-006.                                                                    
 &&                                                                             
 $$                                                                             
 KF                                                                             
</pre> mi                                                                       

 AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                       
 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI                                       
 1015 PM EST SAT JAN 13 2007                                                    
 .UPDATE...                                                                     
 AT 03Z THE KGRR 88D AND SFC OBS INDICATE NO PCPN IS OCCURRING IN OUR           
 CWA AT THE MOMENT. RGNL RADAR TRENDS ALSO INDICATE THAT NOT MUCH IS            
 OCCURRING OFF TO OUR WEST AND SW OTHER THAN A SMALL AREA OF LIGHT              
 SNOW OVER SOUTH CENTRAL WI. 00Z NAM GUIDANCE AS WELL AS THE LATEST             
 RUC DO NOT INDICATE VERY MUCH POTENTIAL FOR PCPN OVERNIGHT.                    
 THEREFORE BASED ON THIS AND CURRENT RADAR TRENDS WE WILL ISSUE AN              
 EVENING UPDATE TO LOWER POPS RATHER SIGNIFICANTLY (TO LOW CHC ALL              
 AREAS) FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. WE STRONGLY CONSIDERED MAKING                 
 CHANGES TO THE WINTER WX ADVISORY HEADLINE TOO. HOWEVER WE WILL                
 OPT TO KEEP IT GOING FROM MIDNIGHT THROUGH 4 PM FOR OUR SOUTHERN               
 CWA. HOWEVER IT SHOULD BE STRESSED THAT BASED ON RGNL RADAR TRENDS             
 AND LATEST GUIDANCE I BELIEVE THAT THE BETTER CHC FOR A WINTRY MIX             
 OF PCPN IN THE ADVISORY AREA WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL MAINLY SUNDAY                 
 MORNING AND AFTERNOON. THE HEADLINE IS KEPT INTACT SINCE THE WINTRY            
 MIX OF LIGHT FZRA AND SLEET COULD COMMENCE VERY LATE TONIGHT.                  
 &&                                                                             
 .GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM                
 MIDNIGHT TONIGHT THROUGH 4 PM SUNDAY FOR THE SRN HALF OF THE GRR               
 CWFA.                                                                          
 &&                                                                             
 $$                                                                             
 LAURENS                                                                        
</pre> mi                                                                       

 AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                       
 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO                                           
 1138 PM CST SAT JAN 13 2007                                                    
 .UPDATE...                                                                     
 HAVE UPDATED FORECAST TO REFLECT THE DECREASING CHC OF MEASURABLE              
 PRECIP OVER NWRN PART OF THE CWA OVERNIGHT. RADAR SHOWS THAT                   
 PRECIP IS SOUTH OF A COU-PPQ LINE CURRENTLY...AND FORCING FIELDS               
 FROM THE MODELS SUGGEST LACK OF LARGE SCALE ASCENT...SO HAVE                   
 LOWERED POPS TO THE CHC CATEGORY HERE AND INCLUDED MENTION OF                  
 FZDZ. FARTHER SOUTH...STILL SEE DECENT AMOUNT LOW LEVEL                        
 CONVERGENCE AND TRANSPORT ASSOCIATED WITH LOW LEVEL JET TO KEEP                
 CATEGORICAL POPS FOR RAIN OR FREEZING RAIN.                                    
 00Z RUNS OF THE GFS/NAM ARE DISAGREEING ON TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF             
 QPF TOMORROW/TOMORROW NIGHT ASSOCIATED WITH THE THIRD SHORTWAVE                
 INCREASING UNCERTAINTY IN FORECAST. SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL BE               
 PROBLEMATIC AS NAM/GFS/21Z SREF 2M TEMPS AND NAM MOS GUIDANCE GO               
 ABOVE FREEZING OVER E CNTRL AND SERN MO/SWRN AND S CNTRL IL                    
 TOMORROW/ TOMORROW EVENING. THE RUC40 TEMPS ARE VERIFYING BETTER               
 THAN THESE...AND HAVE SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS THAN THESE AT ITS 12               
 HOUR FORECAST. THINK GOING FORECAST HANDLES THIS OK...AND WARNINGS             
 STILL LOOK GOOD FOR NOW.                                                       
 BRITT                                                                          
 &&                                                                             
 .DISCUSSION...                                                                 
 SECOND IN A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES IS HEADED FOR THE                           
 AREA.  THE PRECIPITATION FROM THIS WILL BE LIGHT BUT WITH                      
 TEMPERATURES BELOW FREEZING IN MOST OF THE AREA IT WILL ADD                    
 AGGRAVITING CONDITIONS TO THE AREA FOR THE NIGHT.                              
 TEMPS HELD PRETTY STEADY TODAY...RISING SLIGHTLY OVER SOUTHERN                 
 ILLINOIS AND HOLDING STEADY IN THE COLD AIR ACROSS MISSOURI.                   
 OVER A 100,000 PEOPLE ARE STILL WITHOUT POWER ACCORDING TO AMEREN              
 ELECTRIC COMPANY...PRIMARILY JUST WEST TO NORTH OF ST LOUIS AND                
 CENTERED IN ST. CHARLES COUNTY.                                                
 ICE STORM WARNING CONTINUES ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION THROUGH                  
 SUNDAY NIGHT.                                                                  
 THE MAIN EVENT IS GOING TO DEVELOP NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA                   
 SUNDAY AND SUNDAY EVENING. LOOK FOR SIGNIFICANT ICING CENTERED                 
 FROM JEFFERSON CITY NORTHEAST TO 60 MILES NORTH OF ST LOUIS.                   
 THIS WILL MORE OR LESS PARALLEL THE FIRST WAVE OF ICING WHICH                  
 OCCURED YESTERDAY. THIS WILL BRING ICING TOTALS IN SOME AREAS                  
 TO AN INCH OR SO WHICH WILL CREATE HAVOC WITH TREES AND                        
 PROPERTY.                                                                      
 AS THE TROF APPROACHES A SURFACE LOW IS FORECAST TO FORM OVER                  
 EASTERN ARKANSAS TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND DEEPEN NORTHEAST ALONG THE             
 OHIO RIVER BY MONDAY MORNING. MEANWHILE THE CANADIAN HIGH OVER THE             
 PLAINS WILL STRENGTHEN AND CREATE NORTHWEST SURFACE WINDS OF 15 TO             
 25 MPH ON MONDAY. THIS WILL BE THE REAL KILLER FOR TREE DAMAGE AND             
 POWER OUTAGES. IN ADDITION TEMPERATURES WILL BE FALLING SLOWLY                 
 THROUGH THE DAY AND THEN TUMBLE TO SINGLE DIGITS MONDAY NIGHT IN               
 THE ICE COVERED AREA. WIND CHILLS WILL FALL BELOW ZERO CREATING                
 DANGEROUS CONDITIONS FOR THOSE WITHOUT POWER.                                  
 FAR NORTHERN COUNTIES WILL HAVE SLEET AND SNOW MIXED AND REACH                 
 1 TO 4 INCHES ACROSS THAT AREA.                                                
 FINALLY...THE RAIN HAS BEGUN TO IMPACT SOME OF THE RIVERS AND                  
 STREAMS ACROSS SRN MO. WE RECEIVED 1.5 TO 2.5 INCHES OF RAIN                   
 ACROSS THAT AREA AND HEAVY AMOUNTW WILL RE-OCCUR SUNDAY AND                    
 SUNDAY NIGHT. THOSE SAME AREAS WILL LIKELY RECEIVE 1 TO 3 INCHES.              
 THEREFORE WE ARE KEEPING THE FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FOR SEVERAL                 
 SOUTHERN COUNTIES THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.                                        
 PEDIGO                                                                         
 &&                                                                             
 .AVIATION...                                                                   
 FOR THE 06Z TAFS...IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL...WITH FEW               
 INTERRUPTIONS...THRU THE VALID TAF PERIOD. LOOK FOR A EPISODES OF              
 FZDZ THROUGH MIDDAY SUNDAY BEFORE NEXT SHOT OF PCPN ARRIVES. WILL              
 BE INITIALLY FZRA MOST LOCATIONS...BUT AS COLDER AND DEEPER AIR                
 FILLS IN OVER THE NWRN FA AND BUILDS SEWD...LOOK FOR PL AND                    
 EVENTUALLY SN TO APPEAR...HOWEVER FOR ALL AREAS EXCEPT KUIN...THIS             
 WILL BE JUST BEFORE PCPN ENDS. WINDS WILL REMAIN NLY BETWEEN 5                 
 AND 10 KTS.                                                                    
 TES                                                                            
 &&                                                                             
 .LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                            
 MO...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT FOR CRAWFORD-IRON-MADISON-          
      REYNOLDS-ST. FRANCOIS-STE. GENEVIEVE-WASHINGTON.                          
      ICE STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 AM CST MONDAY FOR AUDRAIN-BOONE-                
      CALLAWAY-COLE-CRAWFORD-FRANKLIN-GASCONADE-JEFFERSON-KNOX-                 
      LEWIS-LINCOLN-MARION-MONITEAU-MONROE-MONTGOMERY-OSAGE-PIKE-               
      RALLS-SHELBY-ST. CHARLES-ST. LOUIS-ST. LOUIS CITY-WARREN-                 
      WASHINGTON.                                                               
 IL...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT FOR RANDOLPH IL-WASHINGTON          
      IL.                                                                       
      ICE STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 AM CST MONDAY FOR ADAMS IL-BOND IL-             
      BROWN IL-CALHOUN IL-CLINTON IL-FAYETTE IL-GREENE IL-JERSEY                
      IL-MACOUPIN IL-MADISON IL-MONROE IL-MONTGOMERY IL-PIKE IL-                
      ST. CLAIR IL.                                                             
 &&                                                                             
 $$                                                                             
 WFO LSX                                                                        
</pre> mo                                                                       

 AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                       
 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO                                           
 1050 AM CST SAT JAN 13 2007                                                    
 .UPDATE...                                                                     
 SECOND WAVE OF WINTRY PRECIP TO ARRIVE THIS AFTERNOON AS REGIONAL              
 RADAR SHOWS IMPRESSIVE PRECIPITATION DEVELOPMENT TO THE SOUTHWEST.             
 NORTHWEST COUNTIES SHOULD SEE A SLEET/FZRA MIX WITH UP TO AN                   
 ADDITIONAL INCH OF SLEET ACCUMULATION...WHILE THE REMAINDER OF THE             
 ADVISED AND WARNED AREA SEES FREEZING RAIN...WITH BETWEEN A TENTH              
 AND A QUARTER OF AN INCH OF ADDITIONAL ICE ACCUMULATION.                       
 OVER A 100,000 PEOPLE ARE NOW WITHOUT POWER ACCORDING TO AMEREN                
 ELECTRIC COMPANY.                                                              
 CVKING                                                                         
 &&                                                                             
 .DISCUSSION...                                                                 
 ...ICE STORM WARNING CONTINUES ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION THROUGH               
 SUNDAY NIGHT...                                                                
 THE FIRST WAVE OF THE STORM HAS PRODUCED A PRETTY GOOD HIT ON THE              
 AREA. IF THERE IS ANY SAVING GRACE IT IS THAT A GOOD DEAL OF THE               
 PCPN ACRS NE MO/WEST CENTRAL IL INTO CENTRAL MO HAS BEEN IN THE                
 FORM OF SLEET AND THIS HAS REDUCED THE AMOUNT OF ICE GLAZE FROM                
 FREEZING RAIN. SLEET HAS BEEN REPORTED AS FAR EAST AS TROY AND                 
 WARRENTON. OUR BEST ESTIMATE FROM SPOTTER REPORTS IS THE ZR ICE                
 GLAZE RANGES FROM AROUND ONE-QUARTER INCH FROM WESTERN ST LOUIS                
 METRO UPWARDS TO A HALF-INCH HEADING TOWARDS COLUMBIA. WE ARE GETTING          
 REPORTS OF DOWNED TREES AND POWER LINES AND ASSOCIATED POWER OUTAGES           
 WITHIN THIS CORRIDOR.                                                          
 THE CURRENT SOLID WAVE OF PCPN IS SHOWING A DECIDED BACK EDGE...RUNNING        
 THRU NE AND CNTRL MO. THIS WAVE OF PCPN SHOULD CONT TO SHIFT EAST              
 THIS MORNING...AND BELIEVE IT WILL EXIT MOST OF THE REGION WITH                
 MAYBE THE EXCEPTION OF FAR SE MO AND SRN IL BY MID MORNING. WEAK               
 LOW LEVEL CAA IS CONTINUING WITH THE NNWLY WINDS ACROSS THE REGION...          
 AND KFAM IS NOW DOWN TO FREEZING. AS A RESULT HAVE ISSUED A                    
 FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY TODAY FOR THE REGION FROM FARMINGTON TO                 
 SPARTA TO NASHVILLE. ADDITIONAL ICE GLAZE THIS MORNING EXPECTED TO             
 REMAIN LESS THAN A QUARTER INCH OVER PORTIONS OF ECNTRL MO INTO SW             
 IL. AFTER THIS MAIN BATCH OF PCPN EXITS EAST...THINK WE WILL ONLY              
 SEE PERIODIC BATCHES OF LIGHT PCPN SKIRT ACROSS THE AREA...NOTHING             
 LIKE THE INTENSITY WE HAVE SEEN THE LAST 18H OR SO. THIS SHOULD                
 CONTRIBUTE NO MORE THAN A LIGHT ICE GLAZE. EXPECTING PCPN TNGT                 
 WILL ALSO BE RELATIVELY LIGHT WITHIN THE COLD AIR...WITH THE                   
 HEAVIEST PCPN HAVING SHIFTED S AND SE OF THE CWFA. ONCE AGAIN ANY              
 ADDITIONAL ICE GLAZE TONIGHT WILL BE LIGHT.                                    
 THE FINAL ROUND OF PCPN ASSOCIATED WITH THIS PROLONGED EVENT WILL              
 IMPACT THE REGION ON SUNDAY AS STRONG LARGE SCALE ASCENT OVERSPREADS           
 THE REGION IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE EJECTING MID-UPR LEVEL TROF. THIS           
 ROUND OF THE STORM SHOULD BE AS BAD OR WORSE THAN THIS FIRST WAVE              
 WE HAVE BEEN EXPERIENCING WITH WDSPRD PCPN AMOUNTS OF AT LEAST ONE-            
 HALF INCH. MODEL SOUNDINGS AND P-TYPE ALGORITHMS SHOW THE MAJORITY             
 OF THE PCPN FROM CENTRAL MO INTO WEST CENTRAL IL SHOULD BE IN THE              
 FORM OF SLEET. SIGNIFICANT ICING FROM FREEZING RAIN LIKELY IN MUCH             
 THE SAME LOCATION WE HAVE JUST EXPERIENCED...NAMELY ST LOUIS METRO             
 TO ABOUT 50 MILES WEST. ADDITIONAL ICE ACCUMS OF AROUND ONE-HALF               
 INCH APPEAR QUITE REASONABLE GIVEN QPF IN THE .50-.75 RANGE. THIS              
 ADDITIONAL ICE ACCUMULATION ALONG WITH GUSTY NW WINDS LATE SUNDAY              
 NIGHT AND MONDAY COULD BE DEVASTATING GIVEN OUR CURRENT SITUATION              
 WITH ICE ALREADY WEIGHING HEAVILY ON TREES AND POWER LINES. THE                
 POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD POWER OUTAGES ACROSS EASTERN MO INTO                  
 WESTERN ILLINOIS IS VERY REAL. ACROSS NE MO INTO WEST CENTRAL                  
 ILLINOIS THE COLD AIR SHOULD DEEPEN ENUF BY SUNDAY EVENING FOR A               
 BAND OF 2-3 INCHES OF SNOW.                                                    
 FINALLY...THE RAIN HAS BEGUN TO IMPACT SOME OF THE RIVERS AND                  
 STREAMS ACROSS SRN MO. WE HAVE SOME REPORTS OF THE TYPICAL FLOODED             
 LOW WATER CROSSINGS AND THE RIVERS SHOULD BEGIN TO RESPOND TODAY.              
 THUS THE FLOOD WATCH STILL LOOKS QUITE GOOD IN THIS AREA.                      
 A SIDE NOTE - THE NORMAL MODEL GUIDANCE SUITE OF THE GFS AND NAM               
 CONTINUES TO HAVE PROBLEMS WITH THE INTENSITY AND EXTENT OF THE                
 COLD AIR. THE OPERATIONAL RUC AND DEVELOPMENTAL RUC THROUGH 48H                
 APPEAR TO HAVE THE BEST HANDLE ON THE SURFACE TEMPERATURE PROFILE.             
 GLASS                                                                          
 &&                                                                             
 .AVIATION...                                                                   
 FOR THE 18Z TAFS...                                                            
 IFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THROUGH TAF PERIOD WITH A PERIOD OF FREEZING        
 RAIN AND SLEET EXPECTED TO BEGIN THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE INTO              
 THIS EVENING. WINDS WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE NORTH BETWEEN 5 AND 10              
 KTS.                                                                           
 CVKING                                                                         
 &&                                                                             
 .LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                            
 MO...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT FOR CRAWFORD-IRON-MADISON-          
      REYNOLDS-ST. FRANCOIS-STE. GENEVIEVE-WASHINGTON.                          
      ICE STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 AM CST MONDAY FOR AUDRAIN-BOONE-                
      CALLAWAY-COLE-CRAWFORD-FRANKLIN-GASCONADE-JEFFERSON-KNOX-                 
      LEWIS-LINCOLN-MARION-MONITEAU-MONROE-MONTGOMERY-OSAGE-PIKE-               
      RALLS-SHELBY-ST. CHARLES-ST. LOUIS-ST. LOUIS CITY-WARREN-                 
      WASHINGTON.                                                               
      FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR ST.              
      FRANCOIS-STE. GENEVIEVE.                                                  
 IL...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT FOR RANDOLPH IL-WASHINGTON          
      IL.                                                                       
      ICE STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 AM CST MONDAY FOR ADAMS IL-BOND IL-             
      BROWN IL-CALHOUN IL-CLINTON IL-FAYETTE IL-GREENE IL-JERSEY                
      IL-MACOUPIN IL-MADISON IL-MONROE IL-MONTGOMERY IL-PIKE IL-                
      ST. CLAIR IL.                                                             
      FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR                  
      RANDOLPH IL-WASHINGTON IL.                                                
 &&                                                                             
 $$                                                                             
 WFO LSX                                                                        
</pre> mo                                                                       

 AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                       
 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO                                           
 556 AM CST SAT JAN 13 2007                                                     
 .DISCUSSION...                                                                 
 ...ICE STORM WARNING CONTINUES ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION THROUGH               
 SUNDAY NIGHT...                                                                
 THE FIRST WAVE OF THE STORM HAS PRODUCED A PRETTY GOOD HIT ON THE              
 AREA. IF THERE IS ANY SAVING GRACE IT IS THAT A GOOD DEAL OF THE               
 PCPN ACRS NE MO/WEST CENTRAL IL INTO CENTRAL MO HAS BEEN IN THE                
 FORM OF SLEET AND THIS HAS REDUCED THE AMOUNT OF ICE GLAZE FROM                
 FREEZING RAIN. SLEET HAS BEEN REPORTED AS FAR EAST AS TROY AND                 
 WARRENTON. OUR BEST ESTIMATE FROM SPOTTER REPORTS IS THE ZR ICE                
 GLAZE RANGES FROM AROUND ONE-QUARTER INCH FROM WESTERN ST LOUIS                
 METRO UPWARDS TO A HALF-INCH HEADING TOWARDS COLUMBIA. WE ARE GETTING          
 REPORTS OF DOWNED TREES AND POWER LINES AND ASSOCIATED POWER OUTAGES           
 WITHIN THIS CORRIDOR.                                                          
 THE CURRENT SOLID WAVE OF PCPN IS SHOWING A DECIDED BACK EDGE...RUNNING        
 THRU NE AND CNTRL MO. THIS WAVE OF PCPN SHOULD CONT TO SHIFT EAST              
 THIS MORNING...AND BELIEVE IT WILL EXIT MOST OF THE REGION WITH                
 MAYBE THE EXCEPTION OF FAR SE MO AND SRN IL BY MID MORNING. WEAK               
 LOW LEVEL CAA IS CONTINUING WITH THE NNWLY WINDS ACROSS THE REGION...          
 AND KFAM IS NOW DOWN TO FREEZING. AS A RESULT HAVE ISSUED A                    
 FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY TODAY FOR THE REGION FROM FARMINGTON TO                 
 SPARTA TO NASHVILLE. ADDITIONAL ICE GLAZE THIS MORNING EXPECTED TO             
 REMAIN LESS THAN A QUARTER INCH OVER PORTIONS OF ECNTRL MO INTO SW             
 IL. AFTER THIS MAIN BATCH OF PCPN EXITS EAST...THINK WE WILL ONLY              
 SEE PERIODIC BATCHES OF LIGHT PCPN SKIRT ACROSS THE AREA...NOTHING             
 LIKE THE INTENSITY WE HAVE SEEN THE LAST 18H OR SO. THIS SHOULD                
 CONTRIBUTE NO MORE THAN A LIGHT ICE GLAZE. EXPECTING PCPN TNGT                 
 WILL ALSO BE RELATIVELY LIGHT WITHIN THE COLD AIR...WITH THE                   
 HEAVIEST PCPN HAVING SHIFTED S AND SE OF THE CWFA. ONCE AGAIN ANY              
 ADDITIONAL ICE GLAZE TONIGHT WILL BE LIGHT.                                    
 THE FINAL ROUND OF PCPN ASSOCIATED WITH THIS PROLONGED EVENT WILL              
 IMPACT THE REGION ON SUNDAY AS STRONG LARGE SCALE ASCENT OVERSPREADS           
 THE REGION IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE EJECTING MID-UPR LEVEL TROF. THIS           
 ROUND OF THE STORM SHOULD BE AS BAD OR WORSE THAN THIS FIRST WAVE              
 WE HAVE BEEN EXPERIENCING WITH WDSPRD PCPN AMOUNTS OF AT LEAST ONE-            
 HALF INCH. MODEL SOUNDINGS AND P-TYPE ALGORITHMS SHOW THE MAJORITY             
 OF THE PCPN FROM CENTRAL MO INTO WEST CENTRAL IL SHOULD BE IN THE              
 FORM OF SLEET. SIGNIFICANT ICING FROM FREEZING RAIN LIKELY IN MUCH             
 THE SAME LOCATION WE HAVE JUST EXPERIENCED...NAMELY ST LOUIS METRO             
 TO ABOUT 50 MILES WEST. ADDITIONAL ICE ACCUMS OF AROUND ONE-HALF               
 INCH APPEAR QUITE REASONABLE GIVEN QPF IN THE .50-.75 RANGE. THIS              
 ADDITIONAL ICE ACCUMULATION ALONG WITH GUSTY NW WINDS LATE SUNDAY              
 NIGHT AND MONDAY COULD BE DEVASTATING GIVEN OUR CURRENT SITUATION              
 WITH ICE ALREADY WEIGHING HEAVILY ON TREES AND POWER LINES. THE                
 POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD POWER OUTAGES ACROSS EASTERN MO INTO                  
 WESTERN ILLINOIS IS VERY REAL. ACROSS NE MO INTO WEST CENTRAL                  
 ILLINOIS THE COLD AIR SHOULD DEEPEN ENUF BY SUNDAY EVENING FOR A               
 BAND OF 2-3 INCHES OF SNOW.                                                    
 FINALLY...THE RAIN HAS BEGUN TO IMPACT SOME OF THE RIVERS AND                  
 STREAMS ACROSS SRN MO. WE HAVE SOME REPORTS OF THE TYPICAL FLOODED             
 LOW WATER CROSSINGS AND THE RIVERS SHOULD BEGIN TO RESPOND TODAY.              
 THUS THE FLOOD WATCH STILL LOOKS QUITE GOOD IN THIS AREA.                      
 A SIDE NOTE - THE NORMAL MODEL GUIDANCE SUITE OF THE GFS AND NAM               
 CONTINUES TO HAVE PROBLEMS WITH THE INTENSITY AND EXTENT OF THE                
 COLD AIR. THE OPERATIONAL RUC AND DEVELOPMENTAL RUC THROUGH 48H                
 APPEAR TO HAVE THE BEST HANDLE ON THE SURFACE TEMPERATURE PROFILE.             
 GLASS                                                                          
 &&                                                                             
 .AVIATION...                                                                   
 FOR THE 12Z TAFS...FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET HAS FINALLY ENDED IN                
 UIN AND COU. LOOKING AT RADAR TRENDS PCPN SHOULD BE PULLING E OF               
 STL AND SUS BY 14Z SAT. ALTHOUGH THE P TYPE HAS BEEN FZRA IN STL               
 AND SUS THRU THE LT NGT HRS...INCLUDED A TEMPO GRP OF PL TIL 14Z               
 AS WFO LSX JUST W OF SUS HAS BEEN EXPERIENCING BOTH FZRA AND PL                
 DURING THE LAST HR. CEILING HGTS SHOULD RISE SLIGHTLY LTR THIS                 
 MRNG TO ARND 1500-2000 FT WITH NLY SFC WNDS CONTG N-NW OF ARCTIC               
 CDFNT. LOOKING AT MDL QPF FCSTS AND UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION FIELDS              
 IT APRS THAT THERE MAY BE A BATCH OF LGT FREEZING RAIN/SLEET MOVG              
 THRU THE CWA DURING THE LT AFTN AND EVNG HRS. INCLUDED 5SM WITH                
 -FZRAPL IN UIN AND COU...AND -FZRA IN STL AND SUS LT THIS AFTN AND             
 THIS EVNG.                                                                     
 GKS                                                                            
 &&                                                                             
 .LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                            
 MO...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT FOR CRAWFORD-IRON-MADISON-          
      REYNOLDS-ST. FRANCOIS-STE. GENEVIEVE-WASHINGTON.                          
      ICE STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 AM CST MONDAY FOR AUDRAIN-BOONE-                
      CALLAWAY-COLE-CRAWFORD-FRANKLIN-GASCONADE-JEFFERSON-KNOX-                 
      LEWIS-LINCOLN-MARION-MONITEAU-MONROE-MONTGOMERY-OSAGE-PIKE-               
      RALLS-SHELBY-ST. CHARLES-ST. LOUIS-ST. LOUIS CITY-WARREN-                 
      WASHINGTON.                                                               
      FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR ST.              
      FRANCOIS-STE. GENEVIEVE.                                                  
 IL...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT FOR RANDOLPH IL-WASHINGTON          
      IL.                                                                       
      ICE STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 AM CST MONDAY FOR ADAMS IL-BOND IL-             
      BROWN IL-CALHOUN IL-CLINTON IL-FAYETTE IL-GREENE IL-JERSEY                
      IL-MACOUPIN IL-MADISON IL-MONROE IL-MONTGOMERY IL-PIKE IL-                
      ST. CLAIR IL.                                                             
      FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR                  
      RANDOLPH IL-WASHINGTON IL.                                                
 &&                                                                             
 $$                                                                             
 WFO LSX                                                                        
</pre> mo                                                                       

 AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                       
 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO                                           
 1152 PM CST FRI JAN 12 2007                                                    
 .UPDATE...                                                                     
 HAVE GONE AHEAD AND ADDED BOND...FAYETTE AND CLINTON COUNTIES TO               
 THE ICE STORM WARNING. THE RUC SEEMS TO HAVE THE BEST HANDLE ON THE            
 SURFACE TEMPERATURES...AND IT MOVES THE FREEZING LINE INTO THESE               
 COUNTIES BETWEEN 06-09Z. WHERE FREEZING RAIN HAS STARTED...MOST                
 LOCATIONS HAVE RECEIVED AT LEAST A LIGHT GLAZE ON TREES AND SIGNS.             
 PRECIPITATION TYPE IS MOSTLY SLEET NORTH OF A JEF-TROY MO-WHITE                
 HALL LINE...WITH 1 INCH ACCUMULATIONS SLEET ACCUMULATION REPORTED              
 ALREADY IN QUINCY AND NORTHERN LINCOLN COUNTY. BASED ON THE RADAR              
 AND MODELS...STILL THINK THAT THE PRECIPITATION WILL FILL IN OVER              
 THE SRN COUNTIES LATER TONIGHT...AND PRETTY MUCH THE ENTIRE CWA                
 WILL SEE STEADY PRECIPITATION TONIGHT...SOME OF IT HEAVY AT TIMES.             
 BRITT                                                                          
 &&                                                                             
 .DISCUSSION...                                                                 
 ICE STORM TO LAST THROUGH SUNDAY...SOME LOCATIONS MAY SEE GREATER              
 THAN AN INCH OF ICE ACCUMULATION. EXTREMELY DANGEROUS SITUATION                
 UNFOLDING ACROSS THE MIDWEST.                                                  
 COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO MOVE SOUTH THROUGH THE CWA WITH FREEZING               
 TEMPERATURES FOLLOWING QUICK BEHIND. RAIN CHANGING TO FREEZING RAIN            
 AND SLEET...WITH SOME MINOR ACCUMULATION OR GLAZING ALREADY REPORTED           
 ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST MISSOURI THIS AFTERNOON. FIRST OF THREE           
 DISTURBANCES TO AFFECT THE REGION TAKING SHAPE...WITH LARGE                    
 PRECIPITATION SHIELD EXPANDING NORTHEAST FROM OKLAHOMA INTO                    
 SOUTHWEST MISSOURI.                                                            
 DECIDED TO UPDATE EVERYONE TO ICE STORM WARNING AROUND NOON                    
 TODAY...AS MODELS STILL ARE UNDERESTIMATING THE COLD AIR INTRUSION.            
 UNBELIEVABLE...AT 130 PM KIRKSVILLE SITTING AT 18 DEGREES WITH A               
 DEWPOINT OF 16 DEGREES AND NORTH WIND OF 11KTS. SHOULD SEE FREEZING            
 LINE ENTER ST. LOUIS METROPOLITAN AREA DURING THIS EVENINGS RUSH               
 HOUR..AS OFFICE TEMPERATURE IN WELDON SPRING IS ALREADY 36 DEGREES.            
 STILL MAY NOT HAVE FREEZING LINE FAR ENOUGH SOUTH GIVEN UPSTREAM               
 OBSERVATIONS BUT WILL LET LATER SHIFTS DETERMINE IF ICE WARNING                
 SHOULD BE EXPANDED FURTHER SOUTH.                                              
 SIGNIFICANT ICING UP TO ONE INCH WILL OCCUR TONIGHT...WITH THE                 
 GREATEST ACCUMULATIONS BETWEEN THE INTERSTATE 70 AND 44                        
 CORRIDORS...INCLUDING THE ST. LOUIS METROPOLITAN AREA. GIVEN WHAT              
 HAS HAPPENED IN THE PAST...EXPECT WIDESPREAD POWER OUTAGES.                    
 A LITTLE RELIEF ON SATURDAY...AS ONLY MINOR ADDITIONAL ICE                     
 ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED AS THIS FIRST WAVE EXITS..BUT                       
 TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW FREEZING. BY SATURDAY NIGHT...THE               
 SECOND WAVE ARRIVES WITH UP TO ANOTHER QUARTER INCH OF ICE POSSIBLE.           
 THE THIRD WAVE ARRIVES SUNDAY WITH UP TO ANOTHER INCH OF ICE                   
 POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SAME PORTIONS OF THE CWA. ARCTIC AIR BUILDS IN             
 BEHIND THIS FINAL WAVE WITH BITTERLY COLD TEMPERATURES EXPECTED.               
 GIVEN POTENTIAL OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE SOUTH OF            
 INTERSTATE 70 HAVE DECIDED TO ISSUE A FLOOD WATCH FOR SOUTHERN                 
 COUNTIES AND MENTION HEAVY RAIN/FREEZING RAIN IN ZONE FORECAST.                
 ARCTIC AIR MASS BUILDS ACROSS REGION THROUGH THE EXTENDED WITH BELOW           
 NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED.                                                  
 CVKING                                                                         
 &&                                                                             
 .AVIATION...                                                                   
 FOR THE 06Z TAFS...FIRST AND VERY SIGNIFCANT WAVE OF PCPN MOVING               
 THRU THE FA NOW. WITH VERY LARGE WARM WEDGE OF AIR ALOFT...AND                 
 THIS IS INTERSECTING SHALLOW LAYER AND LEADING EDGE OF ARCTIC AIR              
 AT THE SURFACE...LOOK FOR PROLONGED PERIOD OF FZRA TONIGHT.                    
 DYNAMICAL COOLING HAS ERODED THIS SOMEWHAT ON ITS NRN/WRN                      
 PERIPHERY...AND SO LOOK FOR MORE OF A SLEET MIXTURE IN THOSE                   
 AREAS. THIS FIRST WAVE IS EXPECTED TO EXIT EITHER LATE                         
 TONIGHT...FOR KUIN AND KCOU TERMINALS...OR EARLY SATURDAY MORNING              
 FOR KSTL/KSUS TERMINALS. AFTER THIS...PCPN WILL BE VERY SPOTTY IN              
 COVERAGE UNTIL WAVE NUMBER TWO HITS LATER IN THE DAY ON                        
 SATURDAY...BUT THE INTENSITY NOT EXPECTED TO BE AS GREAT AS THE                
 FIRST SHOT OF PCPN. OTHERWISE...LO CIGS AND OCCASIONALLY LO VSBYS              
 TO CONTINUE THRU THE VALID TAF PERIOD.                                         
 TES                                                                            
 &&                                                                             
 .LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                            
 MO...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT FOR CRAWFORD-IRON-MADISON-          
      REYNOLDS-ST. FRANCOIS-STE. GENEVIEVE-WASHINGTON.                          
      ICE STORM WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST SUNDAY NIGHT FOR AUDRAIN-            
      BOONE-CALLAWAY-COLE-CRAWFORD-FRANKLIN-GASCONADE-JEFFERSON-                
      KNOX-LEWIS-LINCOLN-MARION-MONITEAU-MONROE-MONTGOMERY-OSAGE-               
      PIKE-RALLS-SHELBY-ST. CHARLES-ST. LOUIS-ST. LOUIS CITY-                   
      WARREN-WASHINGTON.                                                        
 IL...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT FOR RANDOLPH IL-WASHINGTON          
      IL.                                                                       
      ICE STORM WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST SUNDAY NIGHT FOR ADAMS IL-           
      BOND IL-BROWN IL-CALHOUN IL-CLINTON IL-FAYETTE IL-GREENE IL-              
      JERSEY IL-MACOUPIN IL-MADISON IL-MONROE IL-MONTGOMERY IL-                 
      PIKE IL-ST. CLAIR IL.                                                     
 &&                                                                             
 $$                                                                             
 WFO LSX                                                                        
</pre> mo                                                                       

 AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                       
 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY                                         
 1157 AM EST SUN JAN 14 2007                                                    
 .SHORT TERM /REST OF TODAY/...                                                 
 LOTS OF MESONET SITES STILL BELOW FREEZING TO THE NORTH OF A                   
 BATH...WATKINS GLEN...HAMILTON AND UTICA LINE. WITH A LIGHT NORTH              
 WIND REINFORCING COLD AIR FROM THE NORTH...DECIDED TO EXTEND THE               
 ADVISORY UNTIL LATER THIS AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY SINCE NEXT SLUG               
 OF MDT PRECIP MOVING INTO WRN NY MAY CHANGE THERMAL PROFILE TO                 
 CREATE MORE OF A MIX. STILL THINK LIGHT ICING WILL OCCUR ACROSS                
 THE FINGER LAKES AND WRN MHWK VALLEY. ELSEWHERE...JUST MINOR TWEEKS            
 TO THE POSITION OF WHERE IT IS MAINLY RAIN...VERSUS THE MIX AND TO             
 LOWER TEMPS UP NORTH A TAD. RADAR TRENDS AND LATEST GUIDANCE                   
 SUGGESTS THAT PRECIP TAPERS OFF TO MIXED DRIZZLE OR FLURRIES FOR               
 A WHILE EARLY THIS EVENING WITH COLDER SFC HIGH BUILDING FURTHER               
 SWD. WILL COMMENT MORE ABOUT STRONGER WAVE LATER THIS AFTERNOON                
 AFTER WE IRON OUT MORE DETAILS...BUT INITIAL THOUGHTS HAVE US                  
 WORRIED ABOUT A MAJOR ICE STORM IN THE FINGER LAKES AND UPPER                  
 SUSQUEHANNA REGION...AS WELL AS THE MOUNTAIN TOPS OF THE WRN                   
 CATSKILLS. PROBABLY COLD ENOUGH FOR DECENT ACCUMULATING SNOWS FOR              
 A WHILE NORTH OF SYR-UCA.                                                      
 &&                                                                             
 .PREV DISCUSSION...                                                            
 /ISSUED 932 AM EST SUN JAN 14 2007/                                            
 SHORT TERM /REST OF TODAY/...                                                  
 THE BATTLE GROUND WITH THIS EVENT HAS BEEN DECIDED...AND IT IS                 
 HERE IN CNY...PERIOD. FREEZING PRECIP DEMARCATION RIGHT NOW IS                 
 NORTH OF A LINE FROM HORNELL-ITH-CORTLAND-OIC-COOPERSTOWN WITH                 
 REPORTS OF GLAZING AND TRAVEL PROBLEMS ACROSS THE FINGER                       
 LAKES...WRN MHWK VALLEY AND UPPER SUSQUEHANNA REGIONS. CAA AT                  
 1000-925 MB PROGGED TO INCREASE SLOWLY SOUTHWARD BY THE RUC/NAM                
 MODELS THIS AFTERNOON...AND THIS IS BEING REALIZED ALREADY WITH                
 CHANGEOVER TO SNOW AT ROC-FZY. SRN EXTENT OF AIRMASS NOT LIKELY TO             
 BUDGE MUCH TODAY WITH TYPICAL DIURNAL TRENDS CAUSING A FEW DEGREE              
 RISES ABOVE FRZG. THIS LATEST UPDATE WAS TO INCREASE TO                        
 CATEGORICAL POPS AS WAVE PRODUCING MIXED PRECIP OVER MI MOVES EAST             
 THIS AFTERNOON WITH ANOTHER SLUG OF MOISTURE. CHANGED SOME PTYPES              
 THIS AFTERNOON UP NORTH TO INCLUDE BURSTS OF SLEET/SNOW AND EVEN RAIN...BUT    
 DID NOT EXTEND ADVISORIES ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY JUST YET SO WE              
 CAN WATCH SFC TEMP TRENDS UNTIL 11 AM OR SO TO SEE IF THEY RECOVER.            
 OUR HUNCH IS THOUGH THAT AN EXTENSION OF ADVISORIES THROUGH THE                
 AFTERNOON IS LIKELY ACROSS THE NORTH. TONIGHT STILL LOOKS VERY                 
 INTERESTING...WITH POTENTIAL FOR DANGEROUS ICE STORM STILL LOOMING             
 OVER OUR NORTHERN AREAS ESPECIALLY. MORE LATER.                                
 PREV DISCUSSION...                                                             
 /ISSUED 703 AM EST SUN JAN 14 2007/                                            
 UPDATE...                                                                      
 ADDED NRN ZONES TO ADVISORY THIS MRNG DUE TO FZDZ AND FZRA.                    
 PREV DISCUSSION...                                                             
 /ISSUED 642 AM EST SUN JAN 14 2007/                                            
 AVIATION /12Z-12Z/...                                                          
 IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS WILL BE WDSPRD ACRS THE RGN TDA AND TNGT                
 WITH LOW CLDS, FOG AND PCPN. OCNL VLIFR CONDITIONS AT ITH/BGM AND              
 AVP THRU 16Z THIS MRNG. -FZRA SHUD CHGOVR TO -RA AT ACRS THE SRN               
 TIER OF NY BETWEEN 14-16Z...AND ARND 16Z AT SYR. MORE MIXED PCPN               
 WILL MOVE IN TNGT ACRS UPSTATE NY, WITH -RA AT AVP, AND A                      
 CONTINUATION OF IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS ALL SITES. WINDS < 10 KTS.              
 PREV DISCUSSION...                                                             
 /ISSUED 210 AM EST SUN JAN 14 2007/                                            
 SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...                                     
 LATEST MODEL RUNS DID NOT SHOW AS MUCH CHANGE AS DID PRIOR RUNS,               
 THOUGH BOTH NAM AND COOLER GFS CONTINUE TO PUSH WARM AIR FURTHER               
 NORTHWARD. WHAT IS OBVIOUS IS NORTHERN PORTION OF FA WILL                      
 EXPERIENCE A SIGNIFICANT MIXED PRECIPITATION EVENT, WITH AN                    
 ELONGATED PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN EXPECTED. EXACTLY WHERE TO DRAW              
 THE LINE IS THE DIFFICULT PART.                                                
 BASED ON CURRENT OBS SHOWING COLD AIR PUSHING SOUTHEAST UNDER DOME             
 OF HIGH PRESSURE, WE WENT A TAD COOLER THAN THE CURRENT NAM                    
 SOLUTION AT THE LOWEST LEVELS. THE AREA FROM SYR OVER TO RME/UCA               
 LOOKS MOST DANGEROUS, WITH FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGESTING                       
 PREDOMINANT FREEZING RAIN THIS EVENING INTO MONDAY EVENING. SLEET              
 AND SNOW WILL MIX IN TOO, BUT WE THINK SNOW ACCUMS WILL BE IN 1-4              
 INCH RANGE WITH THE HIGHEST AMTS ON THE HIGH TERRAIN OF                        
 ONEIDA/MADISON COUNTIES, AND POSSIBLY DOWN TOWARD CICERO IN                    
 ONONDAGA. JUST CANNOT GET EXCITED ABOUT SNOW IN THIS REGION GIVEN              
 HEIGHT OF DENDRITE LAYER. THE MAIN STORY WILL BE THE FREEZING                  
 RAIN.                                                                          
 SOUTH TO THE TWIN TIERS, THE SOUNDINGS ARE NOT AS CLEAR CUT. ITH               
 NAM SOUNDING, AGAIN WITH SOME SFC MODIFICATION, SUGGESTS FREEZING              
 RAIN MUCH OF SUNDAY NIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY MORNING. THEN ENOUGH                
 WARM AIR PUSHES NORTH TO CHANGE PRECIP TO ALL RAIN. ELM AND BGM                
 PAINT SIMILAR PICTURES.                                                        
 THE COLD FRONT RIPS THROUGH AROUND 0Z TUESDAY. THERE COULD BE A                
 2-4 HOUR PERIOD OF SNOW SHOWERS, PROBABLY WITH SOME ACCUMULATION               
 AS DENDRITE LAYER LOWERS FAST. HOWEVER DRIER AIR WORKS IN QUICKLY              
 AND SHOULD CUT OFF BULK OF PRECIP.                                             
 WITH THAT IN MIND WE ARE ISSUING A WINTER STORM WARNING FOR OUR                
 NORTHERN FA, DOWN THROUGH CORTLAND-CHENANGO COUNTIES. THE TWIN                 
 TIERS WILL BE PLACED IN A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY.  DJP                        
 PREV DISCUSSION...                                                             
 /ISSUED 1037 PM EST SAT JAN 13 2007/                                           
 SHORT TERM /REST OF TONIGHT/...                                                
 FREEZING LINE HAS EASED SLOWLY SOUTH REACHING TO ABOUT THE NY/PA               
 BORDER AS OF LATE THIS EVENING. PRECIPITATION SO FAR HAS BEEN NOT              
 MUCH MORE THAN SOME VERY LIGHT DRIZZLE, FREEZING DRIZZLE OR A FEW              
 ICE PELLETS. EXPECT SPOTTY LIGHT PRECPITATION TO DEVELOP OVER PA               
 DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS IN AREA OF WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT... THEN MOVE         
 NORTHEAST REACHING NORTHERN PA AND SOUTHERN NY SHORTLY AFTER                   
 MIDNIGHT... AND THE NORTHERN FINGER LAKES TO WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY             
 AREA SHORTLY BEFORE DAYBREAK. PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS OVERNIGHT                  
 ACROSS THE CWA WILL BE A TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS... BUT THIS COULD            
 STILL CAUSE SOME ICING ACROSS NORTHERN PA AND NY STATE AS TEMPS                
 WILL BE NEAR TO BELOW FREEZING. HOWEVER OVERALL THREAT FOR A                   
 HIGH-END ADVISORY EVENT APPEARS TO BE DIMINISHING.                             
 TEMPERATURES WILL RISE ABOVE FREEZING IN MOST AREAS BY LATE SUNDAY             
 MORNING. BEFORE THAT HAPPENS THERE COULD STILL BE SOME SPOTTY                  
 LIGHT FREEZING RAIN ACROSS FAR NRN PA AND SOUTHERN NY... AND SOME              
 SPOTTY LIGHT SNOW... SLEET OR FREEZING RAIN IN THE NORTHERN FINGER             
 LAKES AND WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY. ANY LIGHT PRECIPITATION THAT                  
 OCCURS SUNDAY AFTERNOON SHOULD BE IN LIQUID FORM AS SFC                        
 TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL ABOVE FREEZING EVEN ACROSS THE NORTH.                
 MODELS STILL IN SOME DISAGREEMENT ON THE TRACK OF THE SFC LOW AND              
 CHARACTERISTICS OF THERMAL FIELDS FOR SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. NAM             
 IS FARTHER NORTH AND WARMER THAN THE GFS. 18Z NAM TRENDED SOUTH                
 AND SLIGHTLY COOLER... HOWEVER THE 00Z NAM HAS SHIFTED SLIGHTLY                
 BACK TO THE NORTH. THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE WATCH AREA STILL                   
 APPEARS TO HAVE A GOOD CHANCE FOR SIGNIFICANT ICING LATE SUNDAY                
 NIGHT OR MONDAY... ESPECIALLY IF THE COLDER GFS VERIFIES. NORTHERN             
 AREAS UP NEAR THE NY THRUWAY ARE LOOKING AT THE POTENTIAL FOR                  
 SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS OF ICE IF THE NAM VERIFIES... AND A MIX              
 OF ICE AND SNOW IF THE GFS IS BETTER.                                          
 &                                                                              
 PREV DISCUSSION...                                                             
 /ISSUED 701 PM EST SAT JAN 13 2007/                                            
 AVIATION /00Z-24Z/...                                                          
 FOR KELM/KITH/KBGM/KAVP IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS WILL DOMINATE THROUGH              
 MIDDAY SUNDAY DUE TO CIGS. AFTER 06Z, LIGHT FREEZING RAIN WILL                 
 OVERSPREAD THE REGION WITH JUST PLAIN RAIN AT KAVP. AFTER 12Z-13Z,             
 THE FREEZING RAIN AT KELM/KITH/KBGM WILL CHANGE TO DRIZZLE AND END             
 AROUND 16Z. AFTER 16Z, CIGS MAY LIFT TO LOW MVFR. AT KRME/KSYR,                
 MVFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE PERIOD. BTW 08Z-12Z                   
 LIGHT FREEZING RAIN AND SNOW IS POSSIBLE WITH OCCASIONAL IFR CIGS              
 AT KRME. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT THROUGH THE PERIOD GENERALLY LESS                 
 THAN 5 KNOTS.                                                                  
 PREV DISCUSSION...                                                             
 /ISSUED 358 PM EST SAT JAN 13 2007/                                            
 LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...                                   
 A PTRN MORE TYPICAL OF MID WINTER WILL BE THE MAIN THEME IN THE                
 XTNDD FCST, WITH MEAN TROF PSN OVER THE ERN U.S..                              
 SYSTEM RESPONSIBLE FOR THIS WEEKEND`S MIXED PCPN WILL BE DEPARTING,            
 LEAVING COLD TEMPS AND NW FLOW IN IT`S WAKE. WE RAISED POPS AND SKY            
 COVER ABV HPC GUIDANCE FOR TUES/TUES NGT GIVEN LIKLIHOOD OF LES                
 ACTIVITY. DIFFERING SIGS W/RESPECT TO ACCUM POTNL...EARLIER GFS RUNS           
 WERE PAINTING NNW FLOW...FAVORING LES ACTIVITY ACRS THE FINGER                 
 LAKES AND CNRTL SRN TIER....AND POTNL DVLPMNT OF FINGER LAKES                  
 BANDS...BUT LATEST RUNS INDICATE FLOW MAY BE MORE NWLY WHICH WOULD             
 INDICATE INCREASED POTNL FOR SOME ADVISORY ACCUMS. THIS WILL HAVE TO           
 BE ADDRESSED IN LATER PCKGS. FAIR WX FOR MID WEEK AS HIGH PRES                 
 BUILDS IN WITH MODERATING TEMPS, THEN ERN U.S. TROF RE-AMPLIFIES WITH          
 CHC FOR PCPN LATE IN THE WEEK.                                                 
 &&                                                                             
 .BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                            
 NY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 PM EST               
      MONDAY FOR NYZ022-024-055>057-062.                                        
      WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 PM EST                  
      MONDAY FOR NYZ009-015>018-023-025-036-037-044>046.                        
      WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR                 
      NYZ009-015>018-022-023-025-036-037.                                       
 PA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 PM EST               
      MONDAY FOR PAZ038>040.                                                    
 &&                                                                             
 $$                                                                             
 SHORT TERM...JAB                                                               
</pre> ny                                                                       

 AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                       
 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY                                         
 932 AM EST SUN JAN 14 2007                                                     
 .SHORT TERM /REST OF TODAY/...                                                 
 THE BATTLE GROUND WITH THIS EVENT HAS BEEN DECIDED...AND IT IS                 
 HERE IN CNY...PERIOD. FREEZING PRECIP DEMARCATION RIGHT NOW IS                 
 NORTH OF A LINE FROM HORNELL-ITH-CORTLAND-OIC-COOPERSTOWN WITH                 
 REPORTS OF GLAZING AND TRAVEL PROBLEMS ACROSS THE FINGER                       
 LAKES...WRN MHWK VALLEY AND UPPER SUSQUEHANNA REGIONS. CAA AT                  
 1000-925 MB PROGGED TO INCREASE SLOWLY SOUTHWARD BY THE RUC/NAM                
 MODELS THIS AFTERNOON...AND THIS IS BEING REALIZED ALREADY WITH                
 CHANGEOVER TO SNOW AT ROC-FZY. SRN EXTENT OF AIRMASS NOT LIKELY TO             
 BUDGE MUCH TODAY WITH TYPICAL DIURNAL TRENDS CAUSING A FEW DEGREE              
 RISES ABOVE FRZG. THIS LATEST UPDATE WAS TO INCREASE TO                        
 CATEGORICAL POPS AS WAVE PRODUCING MIXED PRECIP OVER MI MOVES EAST             
 THIS AFTERNOON WITH ANOTHER SLUG OF MOISTURE. CHANGED SOME PTYPES              
 THIS AFTERNOON UP NORTH TO INCLUDE BURSTS OF SLEET/SNOW AND EVEN RAIN...BUT    
 DID NOT EXTEND ADVISORIES ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY JUST YET SO WE              
 CAN WATCH SFC TEMP TRENDS UNTIL 11 AM OR SO TO SEE IF THEY RECOVER.            
 OUR HUNCH IS THOUGH THAT AN EXTENSION OF ADVISORIES THROUGH THE                
 AFTERNOON IS LIKELY ACROSS THE NORTH. TONIGHT STILL LOOKS VERY                 
 INTERESTING...WITH POTENTIAL FOR DANGEROUS ICE STORM STILL LOOMING             
 OVER OUR NORTHERN AREAS ESPECIALLY. MORE LATER.                                
 &&                                                                             
 .PREV DISCUSSION...                                                            
 /ISSUED 703 AM EST SUN JAN 14 2007/                                            
 UPDATE...                                                                      
 ADDED NRN ZONES TO ADVISORY THIS MRNG DUE TO FZDZ AND FZRA.                    
 PREV DISCUSSION...                                                             
 /ISSUED 642 AM EST SUN JAN 14 2007/                                            
 AVIATION /12Z-12Z/...                                                          
 IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS WILL BE WDSPRD ACRS THE RGN TDA AND TNGT                
 WITH LOW CLDS, FOG AND PCPN. OCNL VLIFR CONDITIONS AT ITH/BGM AND              
 AVP THRU 16Z THIS MRNG. -FZRA SHUD CHGOVR TO -RA AT ACRS THE SRN               
 TIER OF NY BETWEEN 14-16Z...AND ARND 16Z AT SYR. MORE MIXED PCPN               
 WILL MOVE IN TNGT ACRS UPSTATE NY, WITH -RA AT AVP, AND A                      
 CONTINUATION OF IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS ALL SITES. WINDS < 10 KTS.              
 PREV DISCUSSION...                                                             
 /ISSUED 210 AM EST SUN JAN 14 2007/                                            
 SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...                                     
 LATEST MODEL RUNS DID NOT SHOW AS MUCH CHANGE AS DID PRIOR RUNS,               
 THOUGH BOTH NAM AND COOLER GFS CONTINUE TO PUSH WARM AIR FURTHER               
 NORTHWARD. WHAT IS OBVIOUS IS NORTHERN PORTION OF FA WILL                      
 EXPERIENCE A SIGNIFICANT MIXED PRECIPITATION EVENT, WITH AN                    
 ELONGATED PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN EXPECTED. EXACTLY WHERE TO DRAW              
 THE LINE IS THE DIFFICULT PART.                                                
 BASED ON CURRENT OBS SHOWING COLD AIR PUSHING SOUTHEAST UNDER DOME             
 OF HIGH PRESSURE, WE WENT A TAD COOLER THAN THE CURRENT NAM                    
 SOLUTION AT THE LOWEST LEVELS. THE AREA FROM SYR OVER TO RME/UCA               
 LOOKS MOST DANGEROUS, WITH FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGESTING                       
 PREDOMINANT FREEZING RAIN THIS EVENING INTO MONDAY EVENING. SLEET              
 AND SNOW WILL MIX IN TOO, BUT WE THINK SNOW ACCUMS WILL BE IN 1-4              
 INCH RANGE WITH THE HIGHEST AMTS ON THE HIGH TERRAIN OF                        
 ONEIDA/MADISON COUNTIES, AND POSSIBLY DOWN TOWARD CICERO IN                    
 ONONDAGA. JUST CANNOT GET EXCITED ABOUT SNOW IN THIS REGION GIVEN              
 HEIGHT OF DENDRITE LAYER. THE MAIN STORY WILL BE THE FREEZING                  
 RAIN.                                                                          
 SOUTH TO THE TWIN TIERS, THE SOUNDINGS ARE NOT AS CLEAR CUT. ITH               
 NAM SOUNDING, AGAIN WITH SOME SFC MODIFICATION, SUGGESTS FREEZING              
 RAIN MUCH OF SUNDAY NIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY MORNING. THEN ENOUGH                
 WARM AIR PUSHES NORTH TO CHANGE PRECIP TO ALL RAIN. ELM AND BGM                
 PAINT SIMILAR PICTURES.                                                        
 THE COLD FRONT RIPS THROUGH AROUND 0Z TUESDAY. THERE COULD BE A                
 2-4 HOUR PERIOD OF SNOW SHOWERS, PROBABLY WITH SOME ACCUMULATION               
 AS DENDRITE LAYER LOWERS FAST. HOWEVER DRIER AIR WORKS IN QUICKLY              
 AND SHOULD CUT OFF BULK OF PRECIP.                                             
 WITH THAT IN MIND WE ARE ISSUING A WINTER STORM WARNING FOR OUR                
 NORTHERN FA, DOWN THROUGH CORTLAND-CHENANGO COUNTIES. THE TWIN                 
 TIERS WILL BE PLACED IN A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY.  DJP                        
 PREV DISCUSSION...                                                             
 /ISSUED 1037 PM EST SAT JAN 13 2007/                                           
 SHORT TERM /REST OF TONIGHT/...                                                
 FREEZING LINE HAS EASED SLOWLY SOUTH REACHING TO ABOUT THE NY/PA               
 BORDER AS OF LATE THIS EVENING. PRECIPITATION SO FAR HAS BEEN NOT              
 MUCH MORE THAN SOME VERY LIGHT DRIZZLE, FREEZING DRIZZLE OR A FEW              
 ICE PELLETS. EXPECT SPOTTY LIGHT PRECPITATION TO DEVELOP OVER PA               
 DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS IN AREA OF WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT... THEN MOVE         
 NORTHEAST REACHING NORTHERN PA AND SOUTHERN NY SHORTLY AFTER                   
 MIDNIGHT... AND THE NORTHERN FINGER LAKES TO WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY             
 AREA SHORTLY BEFORE DAYBREAK. PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS OVERNIGHT                  
 ACROSS THE CWA WILL BE A TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS... BUT THIS COULD            
 STILL CAUSE SOME ICING ACROSS NORTHERN PA AND NY STATE AS TEMPS                
 WILL BE NEAR TO BELOW FREEZING. HOWEVER OVERALL THREAT FOR A                   
 HIGH-END ADVISORY EVENT APPEARS TO BE DIMINISHING.                             
 TEMPERATURES WILL RISE ABOVE FREEZING IN MOST AREAS BY LATE SUNDAY             
 MORNING. BEFORE THAT HAPPENS THERE COULD STILL BE SOME SPOTTY                  
 LIGHT FREEZING RAIN ACROSS FAR NRN PA AND SOUTHERN NY... AND SOME              
 SPOTTY LIGHT SNOW... SLEET OR FREEZING RAIN IN THE NORTHERN FINGER             
 LAKES AND WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY. ANY LIGHT PRECIPITATION THAT                  
 OCCURS SUNDAY AFTERNOON SHOULD BE IN LIQUID FORM AS SFC                        
 TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL ABOVE FREEZING EVEN ACROSS THE NORTH.                
 MODELS STILL IN SOME DISAGREEMENT ON THE TRACK OF THE SFC LOW AND              
 CHARACTERISTICS OF THERMAL FIELDS FOR SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. NAM             
 IS FARTHER NORTH AND WARMER THAN THE GFS. 18Z NAM TRENDED SOUTH                
 AND SLIGHTLY COOLER... HOWEVER THE 00Z NAM HAS SHIFTED SLIGHTLY                
 BACK TO THE NORTH. THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE WATCH AREA STILL                   
 APPEARS TO HAVE A GOOD CHANCE FOR SIGNIFICANT ICING LATE SUNDAY                
 NIGHT OR MONDAY... ESPECIALLY IF THE COLDER GFS VERIFIES. NORTHERN             
 AREAS UP NEAR THE NY THRUWAY ARE LOOKING AT THE POTENTIAL FOR                  
 SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS OF ICE IF THE NAM VERIFIES... AND A MIX              
 OF ICE AND SNOW IF THE GFS IS BETTER.                                          
 &                                                                              
 PREV DISCUSSION...                                                             
 /ISSUED 701 PM EST SAT JAN 13 2007/                                            
 AVIATION /00Z-24Z/...                                                          
 FOR KELM/KITH/KBGM/KAVP IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS WILL DOMINATE THROUGH              
 MIDDAY SUNDAY DUE TO CIGS. AFTER 06Z, LIGHT FREEZING RAIN WILL                 
 OVERSPREAD THE REGION WITH JUST PLAIN RAIN AT KAVP. AFTER 12Z-13Z,             
 THE FREEZING RAIN AT KELM/KITH/KBGM WILL CHANGE TO DRIZZLE AND END             
 AROUND 16Z. AFTER 16Z, CIGS MAY LIFT TO LOW MVFR. AT KRME/KSYR,                
 MVFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE PERIOD. BTW 08Z-12Z                   
 LIGHT FREEZING RAIN AND SNOW IS POSSIBLE WITH OCCASIONAL IFR CIGS              
 AT KRME. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT THROUGH THE PERIOD GENERALLY LESS                 
 THAN 5 KNOTS.                                                                  
 PREV DISCUSSION...                                                             
 /ISSUED 358 PM EST SAT JAN 13 2007/                                            
 LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...                                   
 A PTRN MORE TYPICAL OF MID WINTER WILL BE THE MAIN THEME IN THE                
 XTNDD FCST, WITH MEAN TROF PSN OVER THE ERN U.S..                              
 SYSTEM RESPONSIBLE FOR THIS WEEKEND`S MIXED PCPN WILL BE DEPARTING,            
 LEAVING COLD TEMPS AND NW FLOW IN IT`S WAKE. WE RAISED POPS AND SKY            
 COVER ABV HPC GUIDANCE FOR TUES/TUES NGT GIVEN LIKLIHOOD OF LES                
 ACTIVITY. DIFFERING SIGS W/RESPECT TO ACCUM POTNL...EARLIER GFS RUNS           
 WERE PAINTING NNW FLOW...FAVORING LES ACTIVITY ACRS THE FINGER                 
 LAKES AND CNRTL SRN TIER....AND POTNL DVLPMNT OF FINGER LAKES                  
 BANDS...BUT LATEST RUNS INDICATE FLOW MAY BE MORE NWLY WHICH WOULD             
 INDICATE INCREASED POTNL FOR SOME ADVISORY ACCUMS. THIS WILL HAVE TO           
 BE ADDRESSED IN LATER PCKGS. FAIR WX FOR MID WEEK AS HIGH PRES                 
 BUILDS IN WITH MODERATING TEMPS, THEN ERN U.S. TROF RE-AMPLIFIES WITH          
 CHC FOR PCPN LATE IN THE WEEK.                                                 
 &&                                                                             
 .BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                            
 NY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR NYZ009-                  
      015>018-022>025-036-037-044>046-055>057-062.                              
      WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 PM EST               
      MONDAY FOR NYZ022-024-055>057-062.                                        
      WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 PM EST                  
      MONDAY FOR NYZ009-015>018-023-025-036-037-044>046.                        
 PA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR PAZ038>040.              
      WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 PM EST               
      MONDAY FOR PAZ038>040.                                                    
 &&                                                                             
 $$                                                                             
 SHORT TERM...JAB                                                               
</pre> ny                                                                       

 AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                       
 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND                                        
 845 PM CST SAT JAN 13 2007                                                     
 FORECAST CHALLENGE CONCERNS MAINLY TEMPERATURES.                               
 AREA OF SKC ACROSS FA SANDWICHED BETWEEN NORTHERN FRINGE OF CLOUD              
 SHIELD FROM SOUTHERN STORM REACHING TO ND/SD BORDER AND RIBBON OF              
 CLOUDS ALONG BAROCLINIC ZONE/COLD FRONT APPROACHING CANADIAN/ND                
 BORDER. CLOUD BANDS CONVERGING ON REGION OVERNIGHT WILL HAVE SOME              
 IMPACT ON TEMPERATURES.  TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN SLOW TO DROP WITH              
 COLDER AIR BEHIND BOUNDARY PUSHING SOUTHWARD THROUGH MANITOBA LAKES            
 AREA. RUC SEEMS TO HAVE A PRETTY GOOD HANDLE ON BOUNDARY BRINGING              
 COLDER AIR INTO NORTHERN THIRD OF FA BY MORNING. FAR SOUTH HAVING              
 MORE CLOUDS AND NOT INTO COLDER AIRMASS WILL LIKELY HOLD TEMPS UP              
 SOME AND WILL ADJUST ACCORDINGLY. CHANGES TO REMAINDER OF FORECAST             
 WILL BE MINOR.                                                                 
 &&                                                                             
 .FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                            
 ND...NONE.                                                                     
 MN...NONE.                                                                     
 &&                                                                             
 $$                                                                             
 VOELKER                                                                        
</pre> nd                                                                       

 AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                       
 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH                                         
 941 PM EST SUN JAN 14 2007                                                     
 .AVIATION /00Z-24Z/...                                                         
 WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER SOUTHERN MO...WITH A QUASI-                      
 STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDING EASTWARD ACROSS SOUTHERN OH AND                     
 NORTHERN KY...WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE ILN CWA INTO MONDAY.                 
 THIS LOW SHOULD CONTINUE TO MOVE NE DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS                 
 KEEPING THE AREA IN PREDOMINANTLY IFR CONDITIONS WITH LOCALLY LIFR             
 CONDITIONS. THE BETTER FORCING IS FORECAST AFTER 06Z OVER THE SW               
 PART OF OUR AREA...THEN SPREADING NNE AFTER 06Z. HAVE INDICATED                
 AREAS OF MODERATE RAIN BETWEEN 06Z AND 12Z OVER THE SW TAF SITES               
 AND FROM ABOUT 08Z TO 14Z ACROSS THE NE SITES. FRONTAL PASSAGE                 
 EXPECTED TOMORROW WITH MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.                               
 &&                                                                             
 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 730 PM EST SUN JAN 14 2007/                        
 SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...                                                        
 ADJUSTED HOURLY TEMPERATURES DOWN SLIGHTLY TO REFLECT CURRENT                  
 CONDITIONS. REST OF FORECAST UNCHANGED.                                        
 SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...                                  
 FRONT REMAINS DRAPED ACROSS THE AREA. SHOWERS CONTINUE...MAINLY TO             
 THE NORTH OF THE FRONT. A STRONG WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING UP THE            
 FRONT WILL ENHANCE THE PRECIPITATION AND RESULT IN WIDESPREAD                  
 RAINFALL TONIGHT. FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT ALL ZONES.                          
 AS THE LOW CONTINUES ON A NORTHEASTERLY TRACK ON MONDAY...IT WILL              
 DRAG THE FRONT EAST OF THE AREA AND ALLOW COLDER AND DRIER AIR TO              
 FILTER IN. TEMPERATURES WILL BE COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW BY MONDAY                 
 NIGHT...AND THOUGH MOISTURE WITH THE LOW WILL BE GONE...THE FLOW               
 BEHIND THE LOW WILL BE CONDUCIVE FOR LAKE ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS. 850           
 MB TO LAKE SURFACE TEMPERATURE DIFFERENTIALS WILL BE IMPRESSIVE AT             
 GREATER THAN 15 DEGREES CELSIUS. IN ADDITION...THE RELATIVELY STRONG           
 850 MB WINDS OF ABOUT 20 KTS AND THE SHALLOW DEPTH OF THE UNSTABLE             
 LAYER WILL ALLOW THE LAKE MOISTURE TO REACH THIS FAR INLAND. WENT              
 WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY                     
 AFTERNOON. AS USUAL WITH LAKE EFFECT SITUATIONS IN THE ILN AREA...WE           
 ARE EXPECTING LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS. SNOW SHOWERS WILL END                  
 TUESDAY AFTERNOON WHEN THE AIRMASS BECOMES TO DRY FOR SNOW TO FORM.            
 SKIES WILL BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR TUESDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS           
 IN.                                                                            
 TEMPERATURES ARE VERY TRICKY WITH THE FRONT OVERHEAD. RUC                      
 TEMPERATURES APPEARED TO WORK BEST FOR TONIGHT. KEPT CLOSE TO                  
 PREVIOUS FORECAST AND BELOW MOS GUIDANCE MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.               
 INCREASED TUESDAY NIGHT SLIGHTLY BUT IT MAY STILL BE THE COLDEST               
 NIGHT SO FAR THIS MONTH. DAYTON AND COLUMBUS HAVE BEEN ABOVE NORMAL            
 EVERY DAY SINCE DECEMBER 9...BUT THE STREAK MAY END ON TUESDAY.                
 RIVER FLOODING PROBLEMS PERSIST...THOUGH LAST NIGHT`S RAINFALL WAS             
 NOT AS GREAT AS EXPECTED AND RIVER LEVELS ARE NOT FORECAST TO BE AS            
 HIGH AS PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT. RIVERS FOR WHICH FLOOD WARNINGS HAVE               
 BEEN ISSUED INCLUDE THE SCIOTO RIVER AT CIRCLEVILLE AND                        
 PIKETON...THE GREAT MIAMI RIVER AT SIDNEY AND MIAMITOWN...THE                  
 HOCKING RIVER AT ENTERPRISE...AND THE OHIO BRUSH CREEK AT WEST UNION.          
 CONIGLIO                                                                       
 LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...                                        
 ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD SE BECOMING CENTERED OVER OHIO                   
 ON WED IN NWRLY FLOW ALOFT. THIS HIGH WL PROVIDE DRY WX AND COLDER             
 TEMPS INTO THURSDAY. ARCTIC AIRMASS VERY DRY AND HAVE KNOCKED DOWN             
 SKY COVER AND GENERALLY PREFER TEMPS AT OR SLIGHTLY COLDER THAN GUID           
 VALUES.                                                                        
 IN SPLIT FLO REGIME CONFIDENCE ON PRECIP EVENTS AND TIMING IS                  
 NOT HIGH. WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE OFF TO THE EAST ON THU FLO                    
 TO BACK WITH WAA PATTERN DEVELOPING. PRECIP POSSIBLE AS EARLY AS               
 THU...BUT WITH OHIO BTWN SRN AND NRN STREAM MOISTURE...WL MAINTAIN             
 A DRY FCST. HAVE HELD BACK THE INTRODUCTION OF PRECIP UNTIL FRIDAY             
 MORNING. MODELS SHOWING SRN MSTR ADVECTING NEWD AHD OF NRN FRONTAL             
 SYSTEM. AT THIS TIME HAVE ONLY OPTD FOR SLIGHT CHC POPS AND BASED              
 ON TOP DOWN APPROACH EXPECT SNOW NORTH AND RAIN AND SNOW SOUTH.                
 THE AREA LOOKS TO DRY OUT LATER ON FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SAT WITH                  
 SFC HI PRESSURE BUILDING BACK IN WITH NWRLY FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPING.             
 AVIATION /18Z-18Z/...                                                          
 FRONT CURRENTLY ANALYZED FROM JUST N OF KCVG AND KILN...TO JUST S              
 OF KLCK. WIDESPREAD -RA CONTINUES TO LIFT NE ACROSS MUCH OF IN/OH              
 WITH A BREAK IN PRECIP APPROACHING KCVG. WIDESPREAD LIFR CIGS                  
 ALONG AND N OF THE FRONT WITH SOME MVFR CIGS NOTED S OF THE FRONT              
 AND BEHIND THE PRECIP ACRS KY. THERE IS A CHANCE CIGS COULD LIFT               
 FOR A SHORT PERIOD AT KCVG/KLUK...WITH THE NAM FORECASTING THEM                
 TO STAY JUST S OF THE FRONT FOR A FEW MORE HOURS BEFORE BNDRY                  
 SLIDES INTO NRN KENTUCKY AND S OF ALL TERMINALS. 2ND BATCH OF                  
 WIDESPREAD RAIN TO COME IN FROM THE SW AROUND 00Z AND LAST THRU                
 09-12Z...WITH RETURN TO LIFR CIGS/VSBYS. SFC LOW TRACKS INTO NW                
 OH BY 12Z AND BRINGS FRONT EWRD ACROSS THE AREA. THIS WILL SWITCH              
 WINDS TO THE WSW...AND STEEP LAPSE RATES BLO 850 HPA WILL ALLOW                
 FOR 30-40 KT 925 HPA WINDS TO MIX DOWN TO SFC AFTER 12Z.                       
 HAWBLITZEL                                                                     
 &&                                                                             
 .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                            
 OH...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR OHZ026-034-035-042>046-            
      051>056-060>065-070>074-077>082-088.                                      
 KY...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR KYZ089>100.                        
 IN...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR INZ050-058-059-066-073>075-        
      080.                                                                      
 &&                                                                             
 $$                                                                             
</pre> oh                                                                       

 AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                       
 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH                                         
 730 PM EST SUN JAN 14 2007                                                     
 .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...                                                       
 ADJUSTED HOURLY TEMPERATURES DOWN SLIGHTLY TO REFLECT CURRENT                  
 CONDITIONS. REST OF FORECAST UNCHANGED.                                        
 &&                                                                             
 .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...                                 
 FRONT REMAINS DRAPED ACROSS THE AREA. SHOWERS CONTINUE...MAINLY TO             
 THE NORTH OF THE FRONT. A STRONG WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING UP THE            
 FRONT WILL ENHANCE THE PRECIPITATION AND RESULT IN WIDESPREAD                  
 RAINFALL TONIGHT. FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT ALL ZONES.                          
 AS THE LOW CONTINUES ON A NORTHEASTERLY TRACK ON MONDAY...IT WILL              
 DRAG THE FRONT EAST OF THE AREA AND ALLOW COLDER AND DRIER AIR TO              
 FILTER IN. TEMPERATURES WILL BE COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW BY MONDAY                 
 NIGHT...AND THOUGH MOISTURE WITH THE LOW WILL BE GONE...THE FLOW               
 BEHIND THE LOW WILL BE CONDUCIVE FOR LAKE ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS. 850           
 MB TO LAKE SURFACE TEMPERATURE DIFFERENTIALS WILL BE IMPRESSIVE AT             
 GREATER THAN 15 DEGREES CELSIUS. IN ADDITION...THE RELATIVELY STRONG           
 850 MB WINDS OF ABOUT 20 KTS AND THE SHALLOW DEPTH OF THE UNSTABLE             
 LAYER WILL ALLOW THE LAKE MOISTURE TO REACH THIS FAR INLAND. WENT              
 WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY                     
 AFTERNOON. AS USUAL WITH LAKE EFFECT SITUATIONS IN THE ILN AREA...WE           
 ARE EXPECTING LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS. SNOW SHOWERS WILL END                  
 TUESDAY AFTERNOON WHEN THE AIRMASS BECOMES TO DRY FOR SNOW TO FORM.            
 SKIES WILL BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR TUESDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS           
 IN.                                                                            
 TEMPERATURES ARE VERY TRICKY WITH THE FRONT OVERHEAD. RUC                      
 TEMPERATURES APPEARED TO WORK BEST FOR TONIGHT. KEPT CLOSE TO                  
 PREVIOUS FORECAST AND BELOW MOS GUIDANCE MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.               
 INCREASED TUESDAY NIGHT SLIGHTLY BUT IT MAY STILL BE THE COLDEST               
 NIGHT SO FAR THIS MONTH. DAYTON AND COLUMBUS HAVE BEEN ABOVE NORMAL            
 EVERY DAY SINCE DECEMBER 9...BUT THE STREAK MAY END ON TUESDAY.                
 RIVER FLOODING PROBLEMS PERSIST...THOUGH LAST NIGHT`S RAINFALL WAS             
 NOT AS GREAT AS EXPECTED AND RIVER LEVELS ARE NOT FORECAST TO BE AS            
 HIGH AS PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT. RIVERS FOR WHICH FLOOD WARNINGS HAVE               
 BEEN ISSUED INCLUDE THE SCIOTO RIVER AT CIRCLEVILLE AND                        
 PIKETON...THE GREAT MIAMI RIVER AT SIDNEY AND MIAMITOWN...THE                  
 HOCKING RIVER AT ENTERPRISE...AND THE OHIO BRUSH CREEK AT WEST UNION.          
 CONIGLIO                                                                       
 &&                                                                             
 .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...                                       
 ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD SE BECOMING CENTERED OVER OHIO                   
 ON WED IN NWRLY FLOW ALOFT. THIS HIGH WL PROVIDE DRY WX AND COLDER             
 TEMPS INTO THURSDAY. ARCTIC AIRMASS VERY DRY AND HAVE KNOCKED DOWN             
 SKY COVER AND GENERALLY PREFER TEMPS AT OR SLIGHTLY COLDER THAN GUID           
 VALUES.                                                                        
 IN SPLIT FLO REGIME CONFIDENCE ON PRECIP EVENTS AND TIMING IS                  
 NOT HIGH. WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE OFF TO THE EAST ON THU FLO                    
 TO BACK WITH WAA PATTERN DEVELOPING. PRECIP POSSIBLE AS EARLY AS               
 THU...BUT WITH OHIO BTWN SRN AND NRN STREAM MOISTURE...WL MAINTAIN             
 A DRY FCST. HAVE HELD BACK THE INTRODUCTION OF PRECIP UNTIL FRIDAY             
 MORNING. MODELS SHOWING SRN MSTR ADVECTING NEWD AHD OF NRN FRONTAL             
 SYSTEM. AT THIS TIME HAVE ONLY OPTD FOR SLIGHT CHC POPS AND BASED              
 ON TOP DOWN APPROACH EXPECT SNOW NORTH AND RAIN AND SNOW SOUTH.                
 THE AREA LOOKS TO DRY OUT LATER ON FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SAT WITH                  
 SFC HI PRESSURE BUILDING BACK IN WITH NWRLY FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPING.             
 &&                                                                             
 .AVIATION /18Z-18Z/...                                                         
 FRONT CURRENTLY ANALYZED FROM JUST N OF KCVG AND KILN...TO JUST S              
 OF KLCK. WIDESPREAD -RA CONTINUES TO LIFT NE ACROSS MUCH OF IN/OH              
 WITH A BREAK IN PRECIP APPROACHING KCVG. WIDESPREAD LIFR CIGS                  
 ALONG AND N OF THE FRONT WITH SOME MVFR CIGS NOTED S OF THE FRONT              
 AND BEHIND THE PRECIP ACRS KY. THERE IS A CHANCE CIGS COULD LIFT               
 FOR A SHORT PERIOD AT KCVG/KLUK...WITH THE NAM FORECASTING THEM                
 TO STAY JUST S OF THE FRONT FOR A FEW MORE HOURS BEFORE BNDRY                  
 SLIDES INTO NRN KENTUCKY AND S OF ALL TERMINALS. 2ND BATCH OF                  
 WIDESPREAD RAIN TO COME IN FROM THE SW AROUND 00Z AND LAST THRU                
 09-12Z...WITH RETURN TO LIFR CIGS/VSBYS. SFC LOW TRACKS INTO NW                
 OH BY 12Z AND BRINGS FRONT EWRD ACROSS THE AREA. THIS WILL SWITCH              
 WINDS TO THE WSW...AND STEEP LAPSE RATES BLO 850 HPA WILL ALLOW                
 FOR 30-40 KT 925 HPA WINDS TO MIX DOWN TO SFC AFTER 12Z.                       
 HAWBLITZEL                                                                     
 &&                                                                             
 .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                            
 OH...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR OHZ053>055-060>065-                
      070>074-077>082-088.                                                      
      FLOOD WATCH FROM 7 PM EST THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY MORNING             
      FOR OHZ026-034-035-042>046-051-052-056.                                   
 KY...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR KYZ089>100.                        
 IN...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR INZ050-058-059-066-                
      073>075-080.                                                              
 &&                                                                             
 $$                                                                             
</pre> oh                                                                       

 AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                       
 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH                                         
 525 PM EST SUN JAN 14 2007                                                     
 .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...                                 
 FRONT REMAINS DRAPED ACROSS THE AREA. SHOWERS CONTINUE...MAINLY TO             
 THE NORTH OF THE FRONT. A STRONG WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING UP THE            
 FRONT WILL ENHANCE THE PRECIPITATION AND RESULT IN WIDESPREAD                  
 RAINFALL TONIGHT. FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT ALL ZONES.                          
 AS THE LOW CONTINUES ON A NORTHEASTERLY TRACK ON MONDAY...IT WILL              
 DRAG THE FRONT EAST OF THE AREA AND ALLOW COLDER AND DRIER AIR TO              
 FILTER IN. TEMPERATURES WILL BE COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW BY MONDAY                 
 NIGHT...AND THOUGH MOISTURE WITH THE LOW WILL BE GONE...THE FLOW               
 BEHIND THE LOW WILL BE CONDUCIVE FOR LAKE ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS. 850           
 MB TO LAKE SURFACE TEMPERATURE DIFFERENTIALS WILL BE IMPRESSIVE AT             
 GREATER THAN 15 DEGREES CELSIUS. IN ADDITION...THE RELATIVELY STRONG           
 850 MB WINDS OF ABOUT 20 KTS AND THE SHALLOW DEPTH OF THE UNSTABLE             
 LAYER WILL ALLOW THE LAKE MOISTURE TO REACH THIS FAR INLAND. WENT              
 WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY                     
 AFTERNOON. AS USUAL WITH LAKE EFFECT SITUATIONS IN THE ILN AREA...WE           
 ARE EXPECTING LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS. SNOW SHOWERS WILL END                  
 TUESDAY AFTERNOON WHEN THE AIRMASS BECOMES TO DRY FOR SNOW TO FORM.            
 SKIES WILL BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR TUESDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS           
 IN.                                                                            
 TEMPERATURES ARE VERY TRICKY WITH THE FRONT OVERHEAD. RUC                      
 TEMPERATURES APPEARED TO WORK BEST FOR TONIGHT. KEPT CLOSE TO                  
 PREVIOUS FORECAST AND BELOW MOS GUIDANCE MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.               
 INCREASED TUESDAY NIGHT SLIGHTLY BUT IT MAY STILL BE THE COLDEST               
 NIGHT SO FAR THIS MONTH. DAYTON AND COLUMBUS HAVE BEEN ABOVE NORMAL            
 EVERY DAY SINCE DECEMBER 9...BUT THE STREAK MAY END ON TUESDAY.                
 RIVER FLOODING PROBLEMS PERSIST...THOUGH LAST NIGHT`S RAINFALL WAS             
 NOT AS GREAT AS EXPECTED AND RIVER LEVELS ARE NOT FORECAST TO BE AS            
 HIGH AS PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT. RIVERS FOR WHICH FLOOD WARNINGS HAVE               
 BEEN ISSUED INCLUDE THE SCIOTO RIVER AT CIRCLEVILLE AND                        
 PIKETON...THE GREAT MIAMI RIVER AT SIDNEY AND MIAMITOWN...THE                  
 HOCKING RIVER AT ENTERPRISE...AND THE OHIO BRUSH CREEK AT WEST UNION.          
 CONIGLIO                                                                       
 &&                                                                             
 .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...                                       
 ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD SE BECOMING CENTERED OVER OHIO                   
 ON WED IN NWRLY FLOW ALOFT. THIS HIGH WL PROVIDE DRY WX AND COLDER             
 TEMPS INTO THURSDAY. ARCTIC AIRMASS VERY DRY AND HAVE KNOCKED DOWN             
 SKY COVER AND GENERALLY PREFER TEMPS AT OR SLIGHTLY COLDER THAN GUID           
 VALUES.                                                                        
 IN SPLIT FLO REGIME CONFIDENCE ON PRECIP EVENTS AND TIMING IS                  
 NOT HIGH. WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE OFF TO THE EAST ON THU FLO                    
 TO BACK WITH WAA PATTERN DEVELOPING. PRECIP POSSIBLE AS EARLY AS               
 THU...BUT WITH OHIO BTWN SRN AND NRN STREAM MOISTURE...WL MAINTAIN             
 A DRY FCST. HAVE HELD BACK THE INTRODUCTION OF PRECIP UNTIL FRIDAY             
 MORNING. MODELS SHOWING SRN MSTR ADVECTING NEWD AHD OF NRN FRONTAL             
 SYSTEM. AT THIS TIME HAVE ONLY OPTD FOR SLIGHT CHC POPS AND BASED              
 ON TOP DOWN APPROACH EXPECT SNOW NORTH AND RAIN AND SNOW SOUTH.                
 THE AREA LOOKS TO DRY OUT LATER ON FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SAT WITH                  
 SFC HI PRESSURE BUILDING BACK IN WITH NWRLY FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPING.             
 &&                                                                             
 .AVIATION /18Z-18Z/...                                                         
 FRONT CURRENTLY ANALYZED FROM JUST N OF KCVG AND KILN...TO JUST S              
 OF KLCK. WIDESPREAD -RA CONTINUES TO LIFT NE ACROSS MUCH OF IN/OH              
 WITH A BREAK IN PRECIP APPROACHING KCVG. WIDESPREAD LIFR CIGS                  
 ALONG AND N OF THE FRONT WITH SOME MVFR CIGS NOTED S OF THE FRONT              
 AND BEHIND THE PRECIP ACRS KY. THERE IS A CHANCE CIGS COULD LIFT               
 FOR A SHORT PERIOD AT KCVG/KLUK...WITH THE NAM FORECASTING THEM                
 TO STAY JUST S OF THE FRONT FOR A FEW MORE HOURS BEFORE BNDRY                  
 SLIDES INTO NRN KENTUCKY AND S OF ALL TERMINALS. 2ND BATCH OF                  
 WIDESPREAD RAIN TO COME IN FROM THE SW AROUND 00Z AND LAST THRU                
 09-12Z...WITH RETURN TO LIFR CIGS/VSBYS. SFC LOW TRACKS INTO NW                
 OH BY 12Z AND BRINGS FRONT EWRD ACROSS THE AREA. THIS WILL SWITCH              
 WINDS TO THE WSW...AND STEEP LAPSE RATES BLO 850 HPA WILL ALLOW                
 FOR 30-40 KT 925 HPA WINDS TO MIX DOWN TO SFC AFTER 12Z.                       
 HAWBLITZEL                                                                     
 &&                                                                             
 .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                            
 OH...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR OHZ053>055-060>065-                
      070>074-077>082-088.                                                      
      FLOOD WATCH FROM 7 PM EST THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY MORNING             
      FOR OHZ026-034-035-042>046-051-052-056.                                   
 KY...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR KYZ089>100.                        
 IN...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR INZ050-058-059-066-                
      073>075-080.                                                              
 &&                                                                             
 $$                                                                             
</pre> oh                                                                       

 AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                       
 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH                                         
 1244 PM EST SAT JAN 13 2007                                                    
 .AVIATION /18Z-18Z/...                                                         
 THE MORE CONCENTRATED AREA OF RAINFALL HAS REALIGNED ITSELF ALONG              
 AND SOUTH OF THE FRNTL BNDRY POSN EXTNDG FROM NEAR KCVG TO KILN TO             
 KLHQ. NORTH OF THE BNDRY...-RA AND/OR -DZ WAS BEING REPORTED. THE              
 BNDRY WILL CONTINUE TO DROP SOUTH THIS AFTN...EVENTUALLY STALLING              
 OUT SOMEWHERE FAIRLY CLOSE TO THE OHIO RIVER. THIS WILL MAKE THE WIND          
 DIR SOMEWHAT PROBLEMATIC FOR ALL TAFS BUT KDAY OVERNIGHT DUE TO                
 RELATIVE PROXIMITY OF BNDRY. HAVE LEFT -RA IN TAFS THIS AFTN WITH              
 THE BULK OF THE PCPN SETTLING SOUTH OF THE TAFS IN NRN KY BY 00Z               
 IN ACCORDANCE WITH THE FRNTL BNDRY. MODEL SOUNDINGS THIS EVNG DO               
 SUPPORT SOME -DZ POTENTIAL...AND HAVE INCLUDED IN TEMPOS AT                    
 KCMH/KLCK/KDAY/KILN.                                                           
 ANOTHER WAVE OF LO PRES CURRENTLY IN ARKANSAS WILL LIFT NORTH                  
 ALONG FRNTL BNDRY AND MOVE INTO THE REGION TOWARDS DAYBREAK SUN.               
 THIS WILL KEEP THE BREAK FROM MORE SUBSTANTIAL PCPN FAIRLY                     
 SHORTLIVED THIS EVNG...WITH WIDESPREAD PCPN COVERAGE AFFECTING ALL             
 TAFS BTWN 06-10Z AND CONTINUING THRU THE REMAINDER OF THE FCST                 
 PERIOD. VSBYS MAY IMPROVE SOME THIS AFTN...OSCILLATING BTWN IFR                
 AND VFR. AFT DARK...PREDOMINANT MVFR VSBYS ARE EXPECTED WITH IFR               
 VSBYS WITH HEVAIER RAIN LATE TONIGHT INTO SUN. WITH STRONG                     
 INVERSION NOTED ON MODEL SOUNDINGS AT AROUND 1000 FT AGL...EXPECT              
 CIGS TO REMAIN AT IFR AND LOWER THRU FCST PERIOD.                              
 RYAN                                                                           
 &&                                                                             
 .PREV DISCUSSION...                                                            
  /ISSUED 1140 AM EST SAT JAN 13 2007/                                          
 SHORT TERM /THIS AFTERNOON/...                                                 
 FRNTL BNDRY SLOWLY DROPPING SOUTH THIS MRNG...AND IS NOW LOCATED               
 FROM SRN INDIANA NE THRU NRN CINCY SUBURBS...TO JUST NORTH OF KILN             
 CONTINUING NE INTO NRN FAIRFIELD CO JUST SOUTH OF CMH METRO. PCPN              
 COVERAGE AND INTENSITY HAS DIMINISHED AS FIRST SFC WAVE HAS MOVED              
 WELL TO EAST INTO CNTRL PA...AND AXIS OF BNDRY LYR FORCING ALONG               
 850 LLJ HAS SHIFTED SOUTH TO NEAR THE OHIO RIVER. HEAVIEST RAIN SO             
 FAR HAS FALLEN FROM THE WHITEWATER VLY EAST INTO THE SRN DAYTON                
 METRO AREA IN GREENE AND NRN WARREN COS WITH 1.25-1.5 INCHES...THE             
 BULK OF WHICH HAS OCCURRED SINCE LAST EVNG. A SOLID 0.75 TO 1 INCH             
 HAS FALLEN ELSEWHERE ACRS NRN FCST AREA...WITH LIGHTER AMOUNTS                 
 NEAR AND SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER.                                              
 FCST UPDATE MAINLY TO FOCUS ON PCPN COVERAGE AND TEMP PROFILES FOR             
 AFTN. 12Z NAM/RUC BOTH HAVE A NICE HANDLE ON CURRENT FRNTL BNDRY               
 POSN. FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE SOUTH THIS AFTN...EVENTUALLY                
 STALLING OUT SOMEWHERE ACRS SRN PORTIONS OF FCST AREA THIS EVNG.               
 LOWERED POPS FASTER ALONG AND NORTH OF I-70 THIS AFTN AS THIS AREA             
 SHOULD SEE A SVRL HOUR BREAK FROM HEAVIER PCPN. MODEL SOUNDINGS                
 AND CURRENT OBS THOUGH DO SUPPORT POTENTIAL FOR -SHRA AND/OR -DZ               
 THRU AFTN HOURS. CAT POPS WILL CONTINUE ACRS SRN 1/2 FCST AREA                 
 INTO TONIGHT AS BNDRY STALLS AND NEXT SFC WAVE OVER SW ARKANSAS                
 LIFTS NE ALONG BNDRY. HAVE INDICATED STEADY OR FALLING TEMPS JUST              
 ABOUT EVERYWHERE THIS AFTN AS TEMPS ARE AND WILL CONTINUE TO                   
 TUMBLE WITH FROPA. THIS FORCED A CHANGE IN TEMPS TONIGHT AS                    
 EVENING LOWS ARE EXPECTED WITH SFC WAVE APPCHG FROM THE SW. THIS               
 SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO REMAIN STEADY...OR BEGIN TO RISE LATER IN                
 THE OVERNIGHT.                                                                 
 FCST UPDATE OUT...PREV DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.                                     
 RYAN                                                                           
 PREV DISCUSSION...                                                             
 /ISSUED 412 AM EST SAT JAN 13 2007/                                            
 SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH MONDAY/...                                           
 CDFNT IS NOW INTO THE EXTREME NW COUNTIES RUNNING FROM NR FDY-                 
 AOH-MIE ATTM. CDFNT WILL SLOWLY DROP THRU THE FA AREA                          
 TODAY...PUSHING AXIS OF HEAVY RAINS SOUTHWARD TOWARDS SRN OH/NRN               
 KY. THE NRN COUNTIES WILL SEE A DRYING TREND DURING THE AFTN.                  
 BY 00Z SUN THE FRONT WILL STRETCH FROM NE TN INTO CNTRL WV. 40 KT              
 H8 JET WILL HELP ENHANCE PCPN ACROSS THE SOUTH TONIGHT. MODELS                 
 BEGIN TO DIFFER TONIGHT. NAM PUSHES A LOW ACROSS THE                           
 REGION...WHILE THE GFS JUST ENHANCES AN INVERTED TROF. EITHER WAY              
 CATEGORICAL POPS CAN BE EXPECTED. BOTH MODELS HAVE INCREASED THE               
 WARMTH OF THE ATMOSPHERE...SO DONT EXPECT ANY FREEZING/FROZEN PCPN             
 ON THE NORTHERN EDGE.                                                          
 ON SUNDAY...ADDITIONAL ISENTROPIC LIFT IS PROVIDED AS LOW                      
 PRESSURE WAVES RUN ALONG THE FRONT...WHICH HAS WORKED BACK NORTH               
 INTO THE REGION.                                                               
 GFS AND NAM DIVERGE ONCE AGAIN LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. THE              
 GFS PUSHES A WEAKER LOW INTO WV BY 12Z...WHILE THE NAM WINDS UP A              
 LOW AND PULLS IT NORTH ALONG THE OHIO/INDIANA BORDER. PREFER THE               
 GFS SOLUTION...THEREFORE WILL MIX A LITTLE SLEET ON THE BACKSIDE               
 BEFORE THE RAIN CHANGES TO SNOW AS THE COLDER AIR WORDS IN. THE                
 THREAT OF A HEAVY FREEZING RAIN/SLEET EVENT HAS DIMINISHED WITH                
 THIS RUN. WE WILL SEE IF THE MODELS CONTINUE WITH THIS TREND.                  
 AS FOR TEMPS. IT WAS TRICKY TODAY...TRYING TO FIGURE WHERE THE                 
 CDFNT WOULD BE AT 12Z. IS APPEARS THAT THE FNT IS A LITTLE FARTHER             
 NORTH THAN THE MODELS THOUGHT AT 06Z...SO WENT WITH A WARMER TEMPS             
 THAN THE GFS MOS WAS GIVING...ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTH. WENT CLOSER             
 TO THE ETA MOS. WENT A BLEND OF THE ETA/GFS MOS FOR TONIGHT...THEN             
 WENT CLOSE TO GFS MOS FOR PERIODS 3 THRU 5.                                    
 SITES                                                                          
 LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...                                     
 SLOWED THE CHANGE OVER TO SNOW IN THE E/SE MONDAY NIGHT BY STARTING            
 OFF WITH EITHER A MIX OR ALL RAIN. ALSO PUSHED LOW TEMPS MONDAY                
 NIGHT UP A COUPLE OF DEGREES.                                                  
 SITES                                                                          
 &&                                                                             
 .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                            
 OH...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR OHZ053>055-060>065-070>074-        
      077>082-088.                                                              
 KY...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR KYZ089>100.                        
 IN...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR INZ050-058-059-066-073>075-        
      080.                                                                      
 &&                                                                             
 $$                                                                             
</pre> oh                                                                       

 AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                       
 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH                                         
 1140 AM EST SAT JAN 13 2007                                                    
 .SHORT TERM /THIS AFTERNOON/...                                                
 FRNTL BNDRY SLOWLY DROPPING SOUTH THIS MRNG...AND IS NOW LOCATED               
 FROM SRN INDIANA NE THRU NRN CINCY SUBURBS...TO JUST NORTH OF KILN             
 CONTINUING NE INTO NRN FAIRFIELD CO JUST SOUTH OF CMH METRO. PCPN              
 COVERAGE AND INTENSITY HAS DIMINISHED AS FIRST SFC WAVE HAS MOVED              
 WELL TO EAST INTO CNTRL PA...AND AXIS OF BNDRY LYR FORCING ALONG               
 850 LLJ HAS SHIFTED SOUTH TO NEAR THE OHIO RIVER. HEAVIEST RAIN SO             
 FAR HAS FALLEN FROM THE WHITEWATER VLY EAST INTO THE SRN DAYTON                
 METRO AREA IN GREENE AND NRN WARREN COS WITH 1.25-1.5 INCHES...THE             
 BULK OF WHICH HAS OCCURRED SINCE LAST EVNG. A SOLID 0.75 TO 1 INCH             
 HAS FALLEN ELSEWHERE ACRS NRN FCST AREA...WITH LIGHTER AMOUNTS                 
 NEAR AND SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER.                                              
 FCST UPDATE MAINLY TO FOCUS ON PCPN COVERAGE AND TEMP PROFILES FOR             
 AFTN. 12Z NAM/RUC BOTH HAVE A NICE HANDLE ON CURRENT FRNTL BNDRY               
 POSN. FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE SOUTH THIS AFTN...EVENTUALLY                
 STALLING OUT SOMEWHERE ACRS SRN PORTIONS OF FCST AREA THIS EVNG.               
 LOWERED POPS FASTER ALONG AND NORTH OF I-70 THIS AFTN AS THIS AREA             
 SHOULD SEE A SVRL HOUR BREAK FROM HEAVIER PCPN. MODEL SOUNDINGS                
 AND CURRENT OBS THOUGH DO SUPPORT POTENTIAL FOR -SHRA AND/OR -DZ               
 THRU AFTN HOURS. CAT POPS WILL CONTINUE ACRS SRN 1/2 FCST AREA                 
 INTO TONIGHT AS BNDRY STALLS AND NEXT SFC WAVE OVER SW ARKANSAS                
 LIFTS NE ALONG BNDRY. HAVE INDICATED STEADY OR FALLING TEMPS JUST              
 ABOUT EVERYWHERE THIS AFTN AS TEMPS ARE AND WILL CONTINUE TO                   
 TUMBLE WITH FROPA. THIS FORCED A CHANGE IN TEMPS TONIGHT AS                    
 EVENING LOWS ARE EXPECTED WITH SFC WAVE APPCHG FROM THE SW. THIS               
 SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO REMAIN STEADY...OR BEGIN TO RISE LATER IN                
 THE OVERNIGHT.                                                                 
 FCST UPDATE OUT...PREV DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.                                     
 RYAN                                                                           
 &&                                                                             
 .PREV DISCUSSION...                                                            
 /ISSUED 642 AM EST SAT JAN 13 2007/                                            
 AVIATION /12Z-12Z/...                                                          
 FCST IS NOT CHANGING MUCH FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PROXIMITY OF THE              
 FRONT WILL KEEP CIGS AOB 1KFT FOR THE MOST PART ACROSS THE BOARD.              
 ONE OR TWO SITES WILL POP OUT OF THE LOW STUFF FROM TIME TO                    
 TIME...BUT THIS WILL BE THE EXCEPTION VERSUS THE RULE FOR THIS SET             
 OF TAFS.                                                                       
 HAVE TRIED TO LOWER THE CHANCES FOR RAIN LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND              
 EVENING FOR MUCH OF THE REGION AS THE PRECIP SHOULD TURN OFF FROM              
 NW-SE. HOWEVER...COULDN`T IN GOOD CONSCIENCE GO ENTIRELY DRY SO I              
 ADDED A FEW HOURS OF DZ UNDERNEATH THE CONTINUED LOW CIGS. ANOTHER             
 WAVE WILL THEN APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE SOUTHWEST                          
 OVERNIGHT...SPREADING MORE CATEGORICAL POPS FROM SW-NE AFTER ABOUT             
 6Z.                                                                            
 FRANKS                                                                         
 SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH MONDAY/...                                           
 CDFNT IS NOW INTO THE EXTREME NW COUNTIES RUNNING FROM NR FDY-                 
 AOH-MIE ATTM. CDFNT WILL SLOWLY DROP THRU THE FA AREA                          
 TODAY...PUSHING AXIS OF HEAVY RAINS SOUTHWARD TOWARDS SRN OH/NRN               
 KY. THE NRN COUNTIES WILL SEE A DRYING TREND DURING THE AFTN.                  
 BY 00Z SUN THE FRONT WILL STRETCH FROM NE TN INTO CNTRL WV. 40 KT              
 H8 JET WILL HELP ENHANCE PCPN ACROSS THE SOUTH TONIGHT. MODELS                 
 BEGIN TO DIFFER TONIGHT. NAM PUSHES A LOW ACROSS THE                           
 REGION...WHILE THE GFS JUST ENHANCES AN INVERTED TROF. EITHER WAY              
 CATEGORICAL POPS CAN BE EXPECTED. BOTH MODELS HAVE INCREASED THE               
 WARMTH OF THE ATMOSPHERE...SO DONT EXPECT ANY FREEZING/FROZEN PCPN             
 ON THE NORTHERN EDGE.                                                          
 ON SUNDAY...ADDITIONAL ISENTROPIC LIFT IS PROVIDED AS LOW                      
 PRESSURE WAVES RUN ALONG THE FRONT...WHICH HAS WORKED BACK NORTH               
 INTO THE REGION.                                                               
 GFS AND NAM DIVERGE ONCE AGAIN LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. THE              
 GFS PUSHES A WEAKER LOW INTO WV BY 12Z...WHILE THE NAM WINDS UP A              
 LOW AND PULLS IT NORTH ALONG THE OHIO/INDIANA BORDER. PREFER THE               
 GFS SOLUTION...THEREFORE WILL MIX A LITTLE SLEET ON THE BACKSIDE               
 BEFORE THE RAIN CHANGES TO SNOW AS THE COLDER AIR WORDS IN. THE                
 THREAT OF A HEAVY FREEZING RAIN/SLEET EVENT HAS DIMINISHED WITH                
 THIS RUN. WE WILL SEE IF THE MODELS CONTINUE WITH THIS TREND.                  
 AS FOR TEMPS. IT WAS TRICKY TODAY...TRYING TO FIGURE WHERE THE                 
 CDFNT WOULD BE AT 12Z. IS APPEARS THAT THE FNT IS A LITTLE FARTHER             
 NORTH THAN THE MODELS THOUGHT AT 06Z...SO WENT WITH A WARMER TEMPS             
 THAN THE GFS MOS WAS GIVING...ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTH. WENT CLOSER             
 TO THE ETA MOS. WENT A BLEND OF THE ETA/GFS MOS FOR TONIGHT...THEN             
 WENT CLOSE TO GFS MOS FOR PERIODS 3 THRU 5.                                    
 SITES                                                                          
 LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...                                     
 SLOWED THE CHANGE OVER TO SNOW IN THE E/SE MONDAY NIGHT BY STARTING            
 OFF WITH EITHER A MIX OR ALL RAIN. ALSO PUSHED LOW TEMPS MONDAY                
 NIGHT UP A COUPLE OF DEGREES.                                                  
 SITES                                                                          
 &&                                                                             
 .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                            
 OH...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR OHZ053>055-060>065-                
      070>074-077>082-088.                                                      
 KY...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR KYZ089>100.                        
 IN...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR INZ050-058-059-066-                
      073>075-080.                                                              
 &&                                                                             
 $$                                                                             
</pre> oh                                                                       

 AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                       
 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA                                      
 1016 PM EST SUN JAN 14 2007                                                    
 .SHORT TERM /REST OF TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...                                
 PREVIOUS FORECAST APPEARS IN VERY GOOD SHAPE THANKS IN PART TO A               
 VERY STAGNANT...SHALLOW COOL AIRMASS ACROSS NRN PENN SEPARATED                 
 BY A STATIONARY FRONT FROM UNSEASONABLY MILD AIR IN THE 50S ACROSS             
 SRN PENN.                                                                      
 BACKING AND INCREASING 925-800 HPA WINDS WILL HELP TO PUSH MOIST               
 AND EVEN MILDER AIR ALOFT OVER THE REGION LATE TONIGHT. THE MAIN               
 AREA OF STRONGER UVVEL AND QPF WILL OCCUR ACROSS NRN PENN. THIS IS             
 DEPICTED WELL BY THE RATHER STRONG NW/SE GRADIENT OF POPS FOR 0.30             
 OF AN INCH OF QPF VIA THE SHORT RANGE ENSEMBLES. RAINFALL THROUGH              
 12Z MONDAY WILL RANGE FROM JUST AROUND ONE TENTH OF AN INCH ACROSS             
 THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY...TO NEAR 0.75 OF AN INCH ACROSS THE FAR NW              
 ZONES. SREF POINT PLUME DIAGRAMS INDICATE AT LEAST SEVERAL MEMBERS             
 WITH FZRA ACROSS THE KBFD AREA WITH A MEAN ICE ACCUMULATION NEAR               
 0.20 OF AN INCH. SIMILAR AMOUNTS OF ICE ARE NOTED FURTHER EAST                 
 INTO TIOGA COUNTY PENN. 00Z RUC SFC TEMPS ARE IN EXCELLENT                     
 AGREEMENT WITH MESO OBS IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S IN THE                   
 COUNTIES JUST SOUTH OF THE NEW YORK BORDER WHERE OUR CURRENT FZRA              
 ADVISORY RUNS UNTIL 11 AM MONDAY. LIGHT...NEAR SFC WINDS ARE                   
 EXPECTED TO SLOWLY VEER FROM THE NE...TO THE SE AND INCREASE TO 5              
 TO 10 MPH EARLY MONDAY...WHICH MAY ALLOW TEMPS TO RISE TO 33-35F               
 IN MANY LOCATIONS BY 13Z...EXCEPT FOR THE DEEPER VALLEYS.                      
 STORM TOTAL QPF BY LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON WILL RANGE FROM AROUND                
 ONE INCH IN THE NORTH...TO JUST UNDER ONE HALF OF AN INCH IN THE               
 FAR SOUTH.                                                                     
 SFC COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION LATER MONDAY...FOLLOWED BY                   
 INCREASING WIND AND A STEADY DROP IN TEMPS TO NEAR NORMAL VALUES               
 BY TUESDAY MORNING.                                                            
 &&                                                                             
 .PREV DISCUSSION...                                                            
 /ISSUED 335 PM EST SUN JAN 14 2007/                                            
 SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...                                         
 QUASI STATIONARY FRONT REMAINS DRAPED ACROSS CENTRAL PA THIS                   
 AFTERNOON WITH WEAK WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE RIPPLING EASTWARD ALONG              
 THE FRONT. MAIN SURFACE LOW TAKING SHAPE OVER SOUTHERN ARKANSAS THIS           
 AFTERNOON AND EVENING WL TRACK NORTHEASTWARD OVERNIGHT BRINGING A              
 SURGE OF MOISTURE AND MOSTLY RAINFALL TO CENTRAL PA. SREF PLUMES               
 CONTINUE TO INDICATE FZRA POTENTIAL WELL TO THE NORTH OF I-80 WHERE            
 FZRA ADVISORY WILL BE CONTINUED FROM 7PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 11 AM            
 MONDAY.                                                                        
 QPF ISSUES: SREF PLUMES ALSO SHOW MEDIAN VALUES OF .9 TO 1.2                   
 THROUGHOUT CENTRAL AND NORTHERN SECTIONS OF CENTRAL PA WITH LESSER             
 AMOUNTS TO THE SOUTH. THESE AMOUNTS NOT ENOUGH TO CAUSE HEADLINABLE            
 PROBLEMS ON AREA RIVERS...ALTHOUGH WILLIAMSPORT IS STILL FORECAST TO           
 REACH CAUTION STAGE (NOW EXPECTED TOMORROW AFTERNOON).                         
 SFC LOW WILL TRACK FROM KCAK NORTHEASTWARD TO KELM AND KBGM MONDAY             
 AFTERNOON EVENTUALLY BRINGING MUCH COLDER (AND MORE SEASONABLE) BACK           
 INTO PA LATER MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...SIGNALING A PATTERN CHANGE            
 TO MORE SEASONABLE CONDITIONS THAT APPEARS WILL BE WITH US FOR THE             
 NEXT 2 WEEKS.                                                                  
 LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...                                     
 COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT AND THE FIRST HALF OF            
 TUESDAY BRINGING NOTICEABLE CHANGES TO THE WEATHER AS WE RETURN TO             
 MORE SEASONABLE CONDITIONS.  AS COLDER AND DRIER AIR PUSH IN BEHIND            
 THE FRONT...TUESDAY WILL BE A BREEZY DAY.  TEMPS WILL BE FALLING               
 THROUGH THE DAY AND WITH VERY MILD CONDITIONS RECENTLY IT WILL FEEL            
 QUITE CHILLY.  WINDS LINE UP UNIDIRECTIONALLY ACROSS THE LAKES TUE             
 AFTERNOON AND LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP BY TUE NIGHT AND           
 WILL ONLY LAST INTO WED BEFORE FLOW BREAKS DOWN AS SURFACE HIGH                
 MOVES IN.  TEMPS MODERATE A BIT FOR LATE WEEK BEFORE CLIPPER SLIPS             
 THROUGH LATER THU BRINGING A CHANCE FOR SNOW SHOWERS TO THE NORTH.             
 TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE NW FRI INTO SAT...AND CENTER OF SURFACE             
 LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS S CANADA BRINGING NW FLOW TO THE REGION ALONG             
 WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF SNOW SHOWERS UNDER BASE OF TROUGH.                       
 AVIATION /21Z-18Z/...                                                          
 IFR/LIFR CONDS WILL PERSIST OVR ALL OF CENTRAL PA THROUGH MONDAY               
 MORNING...AS A STATIONARY FRONT IS DRAPED ALONG THE SOUTHERN TIER OF           
 THE STATE...AND MAIN SFC LOW TRACKS FROM AR THIS AFTERNOON TO N                
 CENTRAL PA MIDDAY MONDAY. RELATIVELY COOL AIR AT THE SFC WILL BE               
 OVERRUN BY A WARM SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...CREATING PERIODS OF                   
 RAIN...ALONG WITH LOW CLDS AND FOG NORTH OF THE FRONT.                         
 &&                                                                             
 .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                            
 FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST MONDAY FOR PAZ004>006-                  
 037-041-042.                                                                   
 &&                                                                             
 $$                                                                             
 SHORT TERM...LAMBERT                                                           
</pre> pa                                                                       

 AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                             
 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD                                           
 828 PM CST SUN JAN 14 2007                                                     
 .UPDATE...                                                                     
 UPDATED FORECAST AND GRIDS TO LOWER OVERNIGHT LOW SEVERAL DEGREES IN           
 MOST AREAS.  TEMPERATURES DROPPED TO -7F OR MORE IN THE NORTHERN               
 COUNTIES AND EXPECT FURTHER FALLS BEFORE MORNING.  THIS ALSO DROPS             
 EXPECTED WIND CHILL VALUES BUT STILL IN THE SAME GENERAL                       
 CATEGORY...COLD.  WILL NEED TO KEEP CLOSE EYE ON SOUTHEAST PART OF             
 THIS AREA.  AS COLD PUSHES FARTHER SOUTH IT IS ALSO LIMITING                   
 NORTHERN EXTENT OF PRECIPITATION AREA.  WILL STAY WITH WINTER                  
 WEATHER ADVISORY AT THIS TIME FOR THE COMBINATION OF LOW WIND CHILL            
 AND SNOW OR BLOWING SNOW.  LATEST WSR-88D DEPICTING AREA OF                    
 INCREASING RETURNS OVER THIS AREA AT THIS TIME.                                
 &&                                                                             
 .SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT                                  
 NUMBER OF ISSUES TO DEAL WITH OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...MOST                    
 NOTABLY THE SNOWFALL EXPECTED ACROSS THE SE CORNER OF THE                      
 CWA...AND WIND CHILLS.                                                         
 STEADY AREA OF PRECIPITATION HAS BEEN WORKING ITS WAY NORTHWARD                
 ALL AFTERNOON. FINALLY SEEING SOME REPORTS OF SNOW IN KSFD AND                 
 KFSD. AS THE UPPER LOW CURRENTLY OVER NE COLORADO...CONTINUES TO               
 LIFT NE AREA OF SNOW SHOULD ALSO CONTINUE TO PUSH NORTHEASTWARD.               
 HOWEVER EXACTLY HOW FAR NORTH WILL BE TRICKY...AS LARGE AMOUNT OF              
 COLD DRY AIR PUSHING SOUTH FROM CANADA WILL AID IN HEAVIEST                    
 PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS STAYING TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE CWA.                
 NAM/GFS/RUC ALL IN AGREEMENT THAT SOME PRECIP SHOULD MAKE IT INTO              
 AT LEAST THE EASTERN CWA THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.                
 BEST OMEGA ADVERTISED OVER THAT AREA FROM 00Z TO 06Z TONIGHT. ALSO             
 BEST LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE Q-VECTOR FIELD STAYS TO THE SOUTH                
 AND EAST OF THE AREA...WITH SOME SLIGHT DIVERGENCE NOTED THIS                  
 EVENING IN THE KATY AREA. AS THE SNOW IN CENTRAL NEBRASKA PUSHES               
 NORTHWARD SHOULD SEE SOME PUSH THROUGH LYMAN COUNTY INTO BUFFALO               
 COUNTY...WITH THE REMAINDER OF CENTRAL SD REMAINING FAIRLY DRY FOR             
 TONIGHT AS THE PRECIPITATION AREA SHIFTS EASTWARD WITH THE UPPER               
 LOW LIFTING OUT. WITH SOME WIND EXPECTED 15 TO 20 MPH ACROSS THE               
 EASTERN CWA...COULD END UP WITH SOME BLOWING SNOW. ALSO WITH THE               
 COLD AIR IN PLACE...AND THE WIND...WILL HAVE VERY COLD WIND CHILLS             
 AS WELL. THEREFORE ACROSS THE EXTREME SE CORNER OF THE CWA HAVE                
 GONE WITH A WINTER WX ADVISORY FOR THE COMBINATION OF                          
 SNOW...PATCHY BLOWING SNOW...AND WIND CHILLS. AS FOR THE REMAINDER             
 OF THE CWA...HAVE A WIND CHILL ADVISORY OUT FOR NORTHEAST SOUTH                
 DAKOTA...AND WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA FOR TONIGHT INTO MONDAY                    
 MORNING. WINDS SHOULD FALL OFF ENOUGH ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL SD...SO             
 WILL ONLY KEEP THE WIND CHILL ADVISORY OUT THROUGH 00Z THIS                    
 EVENING.                                                                       
 FOCUS THEN SHIFTS TO WEAK WAVE DROPPING SOUTHEAST LATER TONIGHT                
 OUT OF NE MONTANA. WEAK LIFT AND SOME MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA                 
 WITH THIS WAVE...SO HAVE MENTIONED SOME FLURRIES SPREADING ACROSS              
 THE AREA BY LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY. MONDAY NIGHT WILL                  
 REMAIN COLD WITH CLEAR SKIES...AND ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE             
 EAST. EXPECT WINDS TO BE BELOW 10 MPH...BUT WILL HAVE TO MONITOR               
 FOR POSSIBILITY OF THE COLD WIND CHILLS AGAIN. OTHERWISE HAVE WAA              
 INTO THE AREA TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...WITH SOME RECOVERY IN TEMPS             
 EXPECTED. DO HAVE ANOTHER SHORTWAVE SLATED TO PUSH NE THROUGH THE              
 CWA LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AND HAVE ADDED IN A MENTION OF SNOW                 
 WITH THIS SYSTEM.                                                              
 .LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY                                           
 NO BIG CHANGES MADE TO PREVIOUS FORECAST. ONLY CONCERN IN LONG TERM            
 PORTION OF THE FORECAST IS HOW THE CUT OFF LOW OVER THE                        
 SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES WILL EITHER KEEP A SPLIT FLOW OVER THE              
 NORTHERN PLAINS OR IF THE LOW WILL EVOLVE INTO A MOVING WAVE IN THE            
 FLOW. HPC IS FAVORING A NON-PROGRESSIVE SOLUTION WHICH KEEPS THIS              
 AREA IN NORTHWESTERLY FLOW THROUGH THE PERIOD. THIS WILL MAKE THE              
 CURRENT DRY FORECAST HOLD THROUGH SATURDAY.                                    
 SOME MODIFICATIONS TO COLD AIR MASS ARE IN STORE BY LATE THIS WEEK             
 AS FRONT THAT COMES THOUGH AT THE START OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD IS              
 SUPPORTED BY A MORE MARITIME-INFLUENCED AIRMASS AND THUS EXPECT                
 TEMPERATURES TO RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL BY LATE THIS WEEK. A RATHER              
 COLD HIGH PRESSURE LOOKS TO SLIDE EAST OF THIS AREA BY                         
 SATURDAY...WITH COLDEST AIR STAYING TO THE EAST OF THIS HIGH.                  
 &&                                                                             
 .ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                            
 SD...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 12 PM CST MONDAY FOR                            
      BROWN-CLARK-DAY-EDMUNDS-FAULK-MARSHALL-MCPHERSON-ROBERTS-SPINK.           
      WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 12 PM CST MONDAY FOR                            
      BUFFALO-HAND-HYDE.                                                        
      WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST MONDAY FOR CODINGTON-              
      DEUEL-GRANT-HAMLIN.                                                       
 MN...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 12 PM CST MONDAY FOR BIG STONE-                 
      TRAVERSE.                                                                 
 &&                                                                             
 $$                                                                             
 KEEFE/ALBRECHT/HARDING                                                         
</pre> sd                                                                       

 AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                       
 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD                                           
 551 PM CST SUN JAN 14 2007                                                     
 .UPDATE...                                                                     
 UPDATED FORECAST AND GRIDS TO CANCEL WINF CHILL ADVISORY IN PARTS OF           
 NORTHCENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA.                                                     
 &&                                                                             
 .SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT                                  
 NUMBER OF ISSUES TO DEAL WITH OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...MOST                    
 NOTABLY THE SNOWFALL EXPECTED ACROSS THE SE CORNER OF THE                      
 CWA...AND WIND CHILLS.                                                         
 STEADY AREA OF PRECIPITATION HAS BEEN WORKING ITS WAY NORTHWARD                
 ALL AFTERNOON. FINALLY SEEING SOME REPORTS OF SNOW IN KSFD AND                 
 KFSD. AS THE UPPER LOW CURRENTLY OVER NE COLORADO...CONTINUES TO               
 LIFT NE AREA OF SNOW SHOULD ALSO CONTINUE TO PUSH NORTHEASTWARD.               
 HOWEVER EXACTLY HOW FAR NORTH WILL BE TRICKY...AS LARGE AMOUNT OF              
 COLD DRY AIR PUSHING SOUTH FROM CANADA WILL AID IN HEAVIEST                    
 PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS STAYING TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE CWA.                
 NAM/GFS/RUC ALL IN AGREEMENT THAT SOME PRECIP SHOULD MAKE IT INTO              
 AT LEAST THE EASTERN CWA THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.                
 BEST OMEGA ADVERTISED OVER THAT AREA FROM 00Z TO 06Z TONIGHT. ALSO             
 BEST LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE Q-VECTOR FIELD STAYS TO THE SOUTH                
 AND EAST OF THE AREA...WITH SOME SLIGHT DIVERGENCE NOTED THIS                  
 EVENING IN THE KATY AREA. AS THE SNOW IN CENTRAL NEBRASKA PUSHES               
 NORTHWARD SHOULD SEE SOME PUSH THROUGH LYMAN COUNTY INTO BUFFALO               
 COUNTY...WITH THE REMAINDER OF CENTRAL SD REMAINING FAIRLY DRY FOR             
 TONIGHT AS THE PRECIPITATION AREA SHIFTS EASTWARD WITH THE UPPER               
 LOW LIFTING OUT. WITH SOME WIND EXPECTED 15 TO 20 MPH ACROSS THE               
 EASTERN CWA...COULD END UP WITH SOME BLOWING SNOW. ALSO WITH THE               
 COLD AIR IN PLACE...AND THE WIND...WILL HAVE VERY COLD WIND CHILLS             
 AS WELL. THEREFORE ACROSS THE EXTREME SE CORNER OF THE CWA HAVE                
 GONE WITH A WINTER WX ADVISORY FOR THE COMBINATION OF                          
 SNOW...PATCHY BLOWING SNOW...AND WIND CHILLS. AS FOR THE REMAINDER             
 OF THE CWA...HAVE A WIND CHILL ADVISORY OUT FOR NORTHEAST SOUTH                
 DAKOTA...AND WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA FOR TONIGHT INTO MONDAY                    
 MORNING. WINDS SHOULD FALL OFF ENOUGH ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL SD...SO             
 WILL ONLY KEEP THE WIND CHILL ADVISORY OUT THROUGH 00Z THIS                    
 EVENING.                                                                       
 FOCUS THEN SHIFTS TO WEAK WAVE DROPPING SOUTHEAST LATER TONIGHT                
 OUT OF NE MONTANA. WEAK LIFT AND SOME MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA                 
 WITH THIS WAVE...SO HAVE MENTIONED SOME FLURRIES SPREADING ACROSS              
 THE AREA BY LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY. MONDAY NIGHT WILL                  
 REMAIN COLD WITH CLEAR SKIES...AND ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE             
 EAST. EXPECT WINDS TO BE BELOW 10 MPH...BUT WILL HAVE TO MONITOR               
 FOR POSSIBILITY OF THE COLD WIND CHILLS AGAIN. OTHERWISE HAVE WAA              
 INTO THE AREA TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...WITH SOME RECOVERY IN TEMPS             
 EXPECTED. DO HAVE ANOTHER SHORTWAVE SLATED TO PUSH NE THROUGH THE              
 CWA LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AND HAVE ADDED IN A MENTION OF SNOW                 
 WITH THIS SYSTEM.                                                              
 .LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY                                           
 NO BIG CHANGES MADE TO PREVIOUS FORECAST. ONLY CONCERN IN LONG TERM            
 PORTION OF THE FORECAST IS HOW THE CUT OFF LOW OVER THE                        
 SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES WILL EITHER KEEP A SPLIT FLOW OVER THE              
 NORTHERN PLAINS OR IF THE LOW WILL EVOLVE INTO A MOVING WAVE IN THE            
 FLOW. HPC IS FAVORING A NON-PROGRESSIVE SOLUTION WHICH KEEPS THIS              
 AREA IN NORTHWESTERLY FLOW THROUGH THE PERIOD. THIS WILL MAKE THE              
 CURRENT DRY FORECAST HOLD THROUGH SATURDAY.                                    
 SOME MODIFICATIONS TO COLD AIR MASS ARE IN STORE BY LATE THIS WEEK             
 AS FRONT THAT COMES THOUGH AT THE START OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD IS              
 SUPPORTED BY A MORE MARITIME-INFLUENCED AIRMASS AND THUS EXPECT                
 TEMPERATURES TO RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL BY LATE THIS WEEK. A RATHER              
 COLD HIGH PRESSURE LOOKS TO SLIDE EAST OF THIS AREA BY                         
 SATURDAY...WITH COLDEST AIR STAYING TO THE EAST OF THIS HIGH.                  
 &&                                                                             
 .ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                            
 SD...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 12 PM CST MONDAY FOR                            
      BROWN-CLARK-DAY-EDMUNDS-FAULK-MARSHALL-MCPHERSON-ROBERTS-SPINK.           
      WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 12 PM CST MONDAY FOR                            
      BUFFALO-HAND-HYDE.                                                        
      WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST MONDAY FOR CODINGTON-              
      DEUEL-GRANT-HAMLIN.                                                       
 MN...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 12 PM CST MONDAY FOR BIG STONE-                 
      TRAVERSE.                                                                 
 &&                                                                             
 $$                                                                             
 KEEFE/ALBRECHT/HARDING                                                         
</pre> sd                                                                       

 AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                       
 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD                                           
 323 PM CST SUN JAN 14 2007                                                     
 .SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT                                  
 NUMBER OF ISSUES TO DEAL WITH OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...MOST                    
 NOTABLY THE SNOWFALL EXPECTED ACROSS THE SE CORNER OF THE                      
 CWA...AND WIND CHILLS.                                                         
 STEADY AREA OF PRECIPITATION HAS BEEN WORKING ITS WAY NORTHWARD                
 ALL AFTERNOON. FINALLY SEEING SOME REPORTS OF SNOW IN KSFD AND                 
 KFSD. AS THE UPPER LOW CURRENTLY OVER NE COLORADO...CONTINUES TO               
 LIFT NE AREA OF SNOW SHOULD ALSO CONTINUE TO PUSH NORTHEASTWARD.               
 HOWEVER EXACTLY HOW FAR NORTH WILL BE TRICKY...AS LARGE AMOUNT OF              
 COLD DRY AIR PUSHING SOUTH FROM CANADA WILL AID IN HEAVIEST                    
 PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS STAYING TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE CWA.                
 NAM/GFS/RUC ALL IN AGREEMENT THAT SOME PRECIP SHOULD MAKE IT INTO              
 AT LEAST THE EASTERN CWA THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.                
 BEST OMEGA ADVERTISED OVER THAT AREA FROM 00Z TO 06Z TONIGHT. ALSO             
 BEST LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE Q-VECTOR FIELD STAYS TO THE SOUTH                
 AND EAST OF THE AREA...WITH SOME SLIGHT DIVERGENCE NOTED THIS                  
 EVENING IN THE KATY AREA. AS THE SNOW IN CENTRAL NEBRASKA PUSHES               
 NORTHWARD SHOULD SEE SOME PUSH THROUGH LYMAN COUNTY INTO BUFFALO               
 COUNTY...WITH THE REMAINDER OF CENTRAL SD REMAINING FAIRLY DRY FOR             
 TONIGHT AS THE PRECIPITATION AREA SHIFTS EASTWARD WITH THE UPPER               
 LOW LIFTING OUT. WITH SOME WIND EXPECTED 15 TO 20 MPH ACROSS THE               
 EASTERN CWA...COULD END UP WITH SOME BLOWING SNOW. ALSO WITH THE               
 COLD AIR IN PLACE...AND THE WIND...WILL HAVE VERY COLD WIND CHILLS             
 AS WELL. THEREFORE ACROSS THE EXTREME SE CORNER OF THE CWA HAVE                
 GONE WITH A WINTER WX ADVISORY FOR THE COMBINATION OF                          
 SNOW...PATCHY BLOWING SNOW...AND WIND CHILLS. AS FOR THE REMAINDER             
 OF THE CWA...HAVE A WIND CHILL ADVISORY OUT FOR NORTHEAST SOUTH                
 DAKOTA...AND WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA FOR TONIGHT INTO MONDAY                    
 MORNING. WINDS SHOULD FALL OFF ENOUGH ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL SD...SO             
 WILL ONLY KEEP THE WIND CHILL ADVISORY OUT THROUGH 00Z THIS                    
 EVENING.                                                                       
 FOCUS THEN SHIFTS TO WEAK WAVE DROPPING SOUTHEAST LATER TONIGHT                
 OUT OF NE MONTANA. WEAK LIFT AND SOME MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA                 
 WITH THIS WAVE...SO HAVE MENTIONED SOME FLURRIES SPREADING ACROSS              
 THE AREA BY LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY. MONDAY NIGHT WILL                  
 REMAIN COLD WITH CLEAR SKIES...AND ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE             
 EAST. EXPECT WINDS TO BE BELOW 10 MPH...BUT WILL HAVE TO MONITOR               
 FOR POSSIBILITY OF THE COLD WIND CHILLS AGAIN. OTHERWISE HAVE WAA              
 INTO THE AREA TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...WITH SOME RECOVERY IN TEMPS             
 EXPECTED. DO HAVE ANOTHER SHORTWAVE SLATED TO PUSH NE THROUGH THE              
 CWA LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AND HAVE ADDED IN A MENTION OF SNOW                 
 WITH THIS SYSTEM.                                                              
 .LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY                                           
 NO BIG CHANGES MADE TO PREVIOUS FORECAST. ONLY CONCERN IN LONG TERM            
 PORTION OF THE FORECAST IS HOW THE CUT OFF LOW OVER THE                        
 SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES WILL EITHER KEEP A SPLIT FLOW OVER THE              
 NORTHERN PLAINS OR IF THE LOW WILL EVOLVE INTO A MOVING WAVE IN THE            
 FLOW. HPC IS FAVORING A NON-PROGRESSIVE SOLUTION WHICH KEEPS THIS              
 AREA IN NORTHWESTERLY FLOW THROUGH THE PERIOD. THIS WILL MAKE THE              
 CURRENT DRY FORECAST HOLD THROUGH SATURDAY.                                    
 SOME MODIFICATIONS TO COLD AIR MASS ARE IN STORE BY LATE THIS WEEK             
 AS FRONT THAT COMES THOUGH AT THE START OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD IS              
 SUPPORTED BY A MORE MARITIME-INFLUENCED AIRMASS AND THUS EXPECT                
 TEMPERATURES TO RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL BY LATE THIS WEEK. A RATHER              
 COLD HIGH PRESSURE LOOKS TO SLIDE EAST OF THIS AREA BY                         
 SATURDAY...WITH COLDEST AIR STAYING TO THE EAST OF THIS HIGH.                  
 &&                                                                             
 .ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                            
 SD...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST /5 PM MST/ THIS AFTERNOON FOR          
      CAMPBELL-CORSON-DEWEY-POTTER-WALWORTH.                                    
      WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 12 PM CST MONDAY FOR BROWN-CLARK-DAY-           
      EDMUNDS-FAULK-MARSHALL-MCPHERSON-ROBERTS-SPINK.                           
      WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 12 PM CST MONDAY FOR BUFFALO-HAND-HYDE.         
      WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST MONDAY FOR CODINGTON-              
      DEUEL-GRANT-HAMLIN.                                                       
 MN...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 12 PM CST MONDAY FOR BIG STONE-                 
      TRAVERSE.                                                                 
 &&                                                                             
 $$                                                                             
 ALBRECHT/HARDING                                                               
</pre> sd                                                                       

 AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED                                           
 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX                                         
 1205 PM CST SUN JAN 14 2007                                                    
 .AVIATION...                                                                   
 1205 PM CST                                                                    
 BULK OF RA/FZRA HAS EVACUATED METRO TAFS. SOME LINGERING FZDZ THIS             
 AFTERNOON. REINFORCING COLD AIR WILL IMPROVE VSBY...BUT ANOTHER                
 ROUND OF WINTRY PRECIP THIS EVENING AS NEXT IMPULSE APPROACHES. SOME           
 SLEET POSSIBLE AS DEPTH OF COLD AIR INCREASES. BRISK NORTH WINDS ON            
 MONDAY...BUT RAPIDLY IMPROVING CIGS.                                           
 FOR WACO...ONSET OF FREEZING TEMPS AND FZRA MAY BE DELAYED UNTIL               
 MID-EVENING...BUT PRECIP IN CENTRAL TEXAS WILL LINGER WELL AFTER               
 06Z. 25                                                                        
 &&                                                                             
 .UPDATE...                                                                     
 1125 AM CST                                                                    
 CURRENT FORECAST PACKAGE INCLUDING WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES LOOK            
 OK FOR NOW.  THE FREEZING LINE HAS NOT MOVED MUCH IN THE LAST 8                
 HOURS.  LARGEST ACCUMULATIONS OF FREEZING RAIN WILL BE NORTH OF AN             
 EASTLAND...MINERAL WELLS...TO GAINESVILLE LINE WHERE PERIODS OF                
 MODERATE TO HEAVY FREEZING RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO CAUSE TRAVEL                  
 PROBLEMS.  ELEVATED...EXPOSED SURFACES FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST IN THE           
 ICE STORM WARNING WILL REMAIN FROZEN BUT AS OF NOW MANY ROADS ARE              
 STILL WET.  TRAVEL IS STILL DISCOURAGED IN THE ICE STORM WARNING DUE           
 TO THE LIKELIHOOD OF ICE ON BRIDGES...OVERPASSES...AND FLY OVERS.              
 STILL APPEARS THAT THE FREEZING LINE WILL SLIDE THROUGH NEARLY ALL             
 OF NORTH TEXAS TONIGHT. WE WILL MOST LIKELY CHANGE THE WINTER STORM            
 WATCH IN THE SOUTHEAST TO A FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY TONIGHT AND                 
 MONDAY AS ICE ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE LESS THAN 1/4 INCH AND MOST              
 ROADS SHOULD NOT ICE OVER.                                                     
 NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST ARE NEEDED AT THIS TIME.                            
 79                                                                             
 &&                                                                             
 .AVIATION...                                                                   
 550 AM CST                                                                     
 DIFFICULT FORECAST...AND AMENDMENTS ARE LIKELY AS TRENDS BECOME MORE           
 APPARENT.  CIGS ARE LOWERING...LIKELY IN RESPONSE TO THE                       
 APPROACHING SHORTWAVE...WITH PRESSURE FALLS NOTED ACROSS THE STATE.            
 VSBYS WILL ALSO FALL TO MVFR/IFR DURING THE MORNING HOURS WITH FZDZ            
 ACCOMPANYING THE BR AT TIMES. INCREASING 850 MB FLOW SHOULD ENHANCE            
 ISENTROPIC LIFT DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS WITH AN INCREASE IN SHRA.            
 RUC/NAM FORECASTS ARE DEPICTING A TRAJECTORY OFF THE MEXICAN                   
 MOUNTAINS WHICH BRINGS DRY AIR INTO THE AREA AND ALTERS QPF                    
 PLACEMENT. PREFER THE GFS/UKMET/ECMWF LOW LEVEL WIND FORECAST WHICH            
 ALIGNS WITH THE CURRENT TRENDS...AND SUGGESTS BEST CHANCE OF FZRA              
 OVER THE METROPLEX AFTER 9 AM AND LASTING THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON.              
 SUSPECT THAT BATCH OF SHOWERS NEAR AUSTIN IS THE BEGINNINGS OF THE             
 ACTIVITY THAT WILL AFFECT THE METROPLEX.  FOR ACT SAME TRENDS WITH             
 CIGS/VSBYS HAVE BEEN FORECAST...BUT HAVE KEPT PRECIP LIQUID THROUGH            
 THIS EVENING...BUT CHANGED IT TO FZRA THEREAFTER.  WITH COLD                   
 ADVECTION INCREASING AFTER 0Z...HAVE RAISED CIGS/VSBYS AS COLD LAYER           
 DEEPENS OVER METROPLEX.  SOME SLEET MAY BE POSSIBLE AS WELL.  TR.92            
 &&                                                                             
 .PREV DISCUSSION...                                                            
 431 AM CST                                                                     
 NORTH TEXAS WEATHER REMAINS VERY INTERESTING TODAY AS WE WILL                  
 CONTINUE TO SEE FREEZING RAIN IN THE WEST...AND A CHANCE OF                    
 FLOODING IN THE EAST. THE FREEZE LINE WILL ALSO NOT MOVE                       
 SIGNIFICANTLY TODAY BUT A SURGE OF MUCH COLDER AIR TONIGHT WILL                
 PUSH IT INTO SOUTHERN ZONES BY MORNING. IN TURN...PRECIP SHOULD                
 END IN NORTHERN PORTIONS TONIGHT...WITH LIGHT WINTER PRECIP                    
 DEVELOPING IN THE SOUTH.  CURRENT ONGOING CONVECTION IN THE                    
 SOUTHEAST WILL BE A PROBLEM AGAIN TODAY. AS FOR HEAVY                          
 RAINS...WHILE WE DO NOT ANTICIPATE THE HEAVY RAINFALL AMOUNTS AS               
 YESTERDAY...IT WILL NOT TAKE MUCH TO CAUSE FLOODING PROBLEMS.                  
 HENCE...WE WILL NOT CHANGE THE CURRENT WATCHES...WARNING OR                    
 ADVISORY.                                                                      
 NEXT WAVE OF ENERGY IS EJECTING NORTHEAST INTO THE REGION THIS                 
 MORNING WITH RAIN AREA INCREASING AND MOVING INTO THE WESTERN CWA.             
 THIS WILL BE A SIGNIFICANT PROBLEM AS TEMPERATURES WILL NOT WARM               
 MUCH TODAY...KEEPING WESTERN PORTIONS AT OR BELOW FREEZING AS ICE              
 CONTINUES TO ACCUMULATE. ON RADAR THE RETURNS MAY NOT LOOK                     
 SIGNIFICANT BUT WITH THE TEMPERATURE AT OR BELOW FREEZING FOR SUCH             
 A LONG TIME...EVEN SMALL AMOUNTS CAN CAUSE SIGNIFICANT PROBLEMS ON             
 BRIDGES...OVERPASSES...TREES AND POWER LINES. TOTAL ICE AMOUNTS                
 THROUGH TONIGHT IN THE ICE STORM WARNING AREA WILL RANGE BETWEEN               
 ONE QUARTER AND THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH. SOME MINOR AMOUNTS OF               
 SLEET WILL BE POSSIBLE LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT.                                
 WINTER PRECIP WILL MOVE INTO THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS LATER TONIGHT AS            
 TEMPERATURES FINALLY BEGIN TO FALL. AT THE SAME TIME...THE SYSTEM              
 WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN...LESSENING THE CHANCE FOR SIGNIFICANT WINTER             
 PRECIP. HOWEVER...AS EVENTS DEVELOP TODAY AND ADDITIONAL MODEL                 
 DATA IS REVIEWED...THE WATCH WILL BE MODIFIED AS NEEDED.                       
 IN THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST TEMPERATURES REMAIN BELOW              
 NORMAL...BUT SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING...WITH PERIODS OF RAIN               
 TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK.                                                    
 42                                                                             
 &&                                                                             
 .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                               
 DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  33  24  31  20  33 / 100  80  30  10  10                 
 WACO, TX              34  29  32  23  32 / 100  80  70  20  10                 
 PARIS, TX             36  26  32  17  31 / 100  80  50  10  10                 
 DENTON, TX            31  23  31  19  33 / 100  80  30  10  10                 
 MCKINNEY, TX          32  24  31  19  32 / 100  80  30  10  10                 
 DALLAS, TX            33  25  31  19  32 / 100  80  50  10  10                 
 TERRELL, TX           34  27  32  19  32 / 100  80  50  10  10                 
 CORSICANA, TX         35  29  32  21  31 / 100 100  70  20  10                 
 TEMPLE, TX            36  29  32  23  31 / 100 100  70  40  20                 
 &&                                                                             
 .FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                            
 ICE STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 AM CST MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:               
 TXZ091>094-100>104-115>120-129>133-141>144-156-157.                            
 FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE FOLLOWING                     
 ZONES: TXZ095-105>107-121>123-134-135-145>148-158>162-174-175.                 
 WINTER STORM WATCH FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON                  
 FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:                                                       
 TXZ107-122-123-135-146>148-158>162-174-175.                                    
 FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING                 
 ZONES: TXZ095-105-106-121-134-145.                                             
 &&                                                                             
 $$                                                                             
 79/25                                                                          
 07/09/77/20                                                                    
</pre> tx                                                                       

 AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                             
 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX                                         
 1125 AM CST SUN JAN 14 2007                                                    
 .UPDATE...                                                                     
 CURRENT FORECAST PACKAGE INCLUDING WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES LOOK            
 OK FOR NOW.  THE FREEZING LINE HAS NOT MOVED MUCH IN THE LAST 8                
 HOURS.  LARGEST ACCUMULATIONS OF FREEZING RAIN WILL BE NORTH OF AN             
 EASTLAND...MINERAL WELLS...TO GAINESVILLE LINE WHERE PERIODS OF                
 MODERATE TO HEAVY FREEZING RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO CAUSE TRAVEL                  
 PROBLEMS.  ELEVATED...EXPOSED SURFACES FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST IN THE           
 ICE STORM WARNING WILL REMAIN FROZEN BUT AS OF NOW MANY ROADS ARE              
 STILL WET.  TRAVEL IS STILL DISCOURAGED IN THE ICE STORM WARNING DUE           
 TO THE LIKELIHOOD OF ICE ON BRIDGES...OVERPASSES...AND FLY OVERS.              
 STILL APPEARS THAT THE FREEZING LINE WILL SLIDE THROUGH NEARLY ALL             
 OF NORTH TEXAS TONIGHT. WE WILL MOST LIKELY CHANGE THE WINTER STORM            
 WATCH IN THE SOUTHEAST TO A FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY TONIGHT AND                 
 MONDAY AS ICE ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE LESS THAN 1/4 INCH AND MOST              
 ROADS SHOULD NOT ICE OVER.                                                     
 NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST ARE NEEDED AT THIS TIME.                            
 79.                                                                            
 &&                                                                             
 .AVIATION...                                                                   
 550 AM                                                                         
 DIFFICULT FORECAST...AND AMENDMENTS ARE LIKELY AS TRENDS BECOME MORE           
 APPARENT.  CIGS ARE LOWERING...LIKELY IN RESPONSE TO THE                       
 APPROACHING SHORTWAVE...WITH PRESSURE FALLS NOTED ACROSS THE STATE.            
 VSBYS WILL ALSO FALL TO MVFR/IFR DURING THE MORNING HOURS WITH FZDZ            
 ACCOMPANYING THE BR AT TIMES. INCREASING 850 MB FLOW SHOULD ENHANCE            
 ISENTROPIC LIFT DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS WITH AN INCREASE IN SHRA.            
 RUC/NAM FORECASTS ARE DEPICTING A TRAJECTORY OFF THE MEXICAN                   
 MOUNTAINS WHICH BRINGS DRY AIR INTO THE AREA AND ALTERS QPF                    
 PLACEMENT. PREFER THE GFS/UKMET/ECMWF LOW LEVEL WIND FORECAST WHICH            
 ALIGNS WITH THE CURRENT TRENDS...AND SUGGESTS BEST CHANCE OF FZRA              
 OVER THE METROPLEX AFTER 9 AM AND LASTING THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON.              
 SUSPECT THAT BATCH OF SHOWERS NEAR AUSTIN IS THE BEGINNINGS OF THE             
 ACTIVITY THAT WILL AFFECT THE METROPLEX.  FOR ACT SAME TRENDS WITH             
 CIGS/VSBYS HAVE BEEN FORECAST...BUT HAVE KEPT PRECIP LIQUID THROUGH            
 THIS EVENING...BUT CHANGED IT TO FZRA THEREAFTER.  WITH COLD                   
 ADVECTION INCREASING AFTER 0Z...HAVE RAISED CIGS/VSBYS AS COLD LAYER           
 DEEPENS OVER METROPLEX.  SOME SLEET MAY BE POSSIBLE AS WELL.  TR.92            
 &&                                                                             
 .DISCUSSION...                                                                 
 NORTH TEXAS WEATHER REMAINS VERY INTERESTING TODAY AS WE WILL                  
 CONTINUE TO SEE FREEZING RAIN IN THE WEST...AND A CHANCE OF                    
 FLOODING IN THE EAST. THE FREEZE LINE WILL ALSO NOT MOVE                       
 SIGNIFICANTLY TODAY BUT A SURGE OF MUCH COLDER AIR TONIGHT WILL                
 PUSH IT INTO SOUTHERN ZONES BY MORNING. IN TURN...PRECIP SHOULD                
 END IN NORTHERN PORTIONS TONIGHT...WITH LIGHT WINTER PRECIP                    
 DEVELOPING IN THE SOUTH.  CURRENT ONGOING CONVECTION IN THE                    
 SOUTHEAST WILL BE A PROBLEM AGAIN TODAY. AS FOR HEAVY                          
 RAINS...WHILE WE DO NOT ANTICIPATE THE HEAVY RAINFALL AMOUNTS AS               
 YESTERDAY...IT WILL NOT TAKE MUCH TO CAUSE FLOODING PROBLEMS.                  
 HENCE...WE WILL NOT CHANGE THE CURRENT WATCHES...WARNING OR                    
 ADVISORY.                                                                      
 NEXT WAVE OF ENERGY IS EJECTING NORTHEAST INTO THE REGION THIS                 
 MORNING WITH RAIN AREA INCREASING AND MOVING INTO THE WESTERN CWA.             
 THIS WILL BE A SIGNIFICANT PROBLEM AS TEMPERATURES WILL NOT WARM               
 MUCH TODAY...KEEPING WESTERN PORTIONS AT OR BELOW FREEZING AS ICE              
 CONTINUES TO ACCUMULATE. ON RADAR THE RETURNS MAY NOT LOOK                     
 SIGNIFICANT BUT WITH THE TEMPERATURE AT OR BELOW FREEZING FOR SUCH             
 A LONG TIME...EVEN SMALL AMOUNTS CAN CAUSE SIGNIFICANT PROBLEMS ON             
 BRIDGES...OVERPASSES...TREES AND POWER LINES. TOTAL ICE AMOUNTS                
 THROUGH TONIGHT IN THE ICE STORM WARNING AREA WILL RANGE BETWEEN               
 ONE QUARTER AND THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH. SOME MINOR AMOUNTS OF               
 SLEET WILL BE POSSIBLE LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT.                                
 WINTER PRECIP WILL MOVE INTO THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS LATER TONIGHT AS            
 TEMPERATURES FINALLY BEGIN TO FALL. AT THE SAME TIME...THE SYSTEM              
 WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN...LESSENING THE CHANCE FOR SIGNIFICANT WINTER             
 PRECIP. HOWEVER...AS EVENTS DEVELOP TODAY AND ADDITIONAL MODEL                 
 DATA IS REVIEWED...THE WATCH WILL BE MODIFIED AS NEEDED.                       
 IN THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST TEMPERATURES REMAIN BELOW              
 NORMAL...BUT SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING...WITH PERIODS OF RAIN               
 TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK.                                                    
 &&                                                                             
 .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                               
 DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  33  24  31  20  33 / 100  80  30  10  10                 
 WACO, TX              34  29  32  23  32 / 100  80  70  20  10                 
 PARIS, TX             36  26  32  17  31 / 100  80  50  10  10                 
 DENTON, TX            31  23  31  19  33 / 100  80  30  10  10                 
 MCKINNEY, TX          32  24  31  19  32 / 100  80  30  10  10                 
 DALLAS, TX            33  25  31  19  32 / 100  80  50  10  10                 
 TERRELL, TX           34  27  32  19  32 / 100  80  50  10  10                 
 CORSICANA, TX         35  29  32  21  31 / 100 100  70  20  10                 
 TEMPLE, TX            36  29  32  23  31 / 100 100  70  40  20                 
 &&                                                                             
 .FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                            
 ICE STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 AM CST MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:               
 TXZ091>094-100>104-115>120-129>133-141>144-156-157.                            
 FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE FOLLOWING                     
 ZONES: TXZ095-105>107-121>123-134-135-145>148-158>162-174-175.                 
 WINTER STORM WATCH FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON                  
 FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:                                                       
 TXZ107-122-123-135-146>148-158>162-174-175.                                    
 FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING                 
 ZONES: TXZ095-105-106-121-134-145.                                             
 &&                                                                             
 $$                                                                             
 92/42                                                                          
</pre> tx                                                                       

 AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                             
 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX                                         
 840 AM CST SUN JAN 14 2007                                                     
 .UPDATE...                                                                     
 AFTER REVIEWING THE MORNING SOUNDING AND CURRENT RADAR TRENDS WE               
 WILL SEND OUT A QUICK UPDATE TO INCLUDE SOME ISOLATED THUNDER WHERE            
 THE CURRENT ICE STORM WARNING RESIDES.  WILL ALSO ADD THE MENTION OF           
 SLEET IN THE EXTREME NORTHWEST THIS MORNING AND A LITTLE FURTHER               
 SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON.                                                          
 NO OTHER CHANGES WITH THIS UPDATE.                                             
 .79                                                                            
 &&                                                                             
 .AVIATION...                                                                   
 550 AM                                                                         
 DIFFICULT FORECAST...AND AMENDMENTS ARE LIKELY AS TRENDS BECOME MORE           
 APPARENT.  CIGS ARE LOWERING...LIKELY IN RESPONSE TO THE                       
 APPROACHING SHORTWAVE...WITH PRESSURE FALLS NOTED ACROSS THE STATE.            
 VSBYS WILL ALSO FALL TO MVFR/IFR DURING THE MORNING HOURS WITH FZDZ            
 ACCOMPANYING THE BR AT TIMES. INCREASING 850 MB FLOW SHOULD ENHANCE            
 ISENTROPIC LIFT DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS WITH AN INCREASE IN SHRA.            
 RUC/NAM FORECASTS ARE DEPICTING A TRAJECTORY OFF THE MEXICAN                   
 MOUNTAINS WHICH BRINGS DRY AIR INTO THE AREA AND ALTERS QPF                    
 PLACEMENT. PREFER THE GFS/UKMET/ECMWF LOW LEVEL WIND FORECAST WHICH            
 ALIGNS WITH THE CURRENT TRENDS...AND SUGGESTS BEST CHANCE OF FZRA              
 OVER THE METROPLEX AFTER 9 AM AND LASTING THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON.              
 SUSPECT THAT BATCH OF SHOWERS NEAR AUSTIN IS THE BEGINNINGS OF THE             
 ACTIVITY THAT WILL AFFECT THE METROPLEX.  FOR ACT SAME TRENDS WITH             
 CIGS/VSBYS HAVE BEEN FORECAST...BUT HAVE KEPT PRECIP LIQUID THROUGH            
 THIS EVENING...BUT CHANGED IT TO FZRA THEREAFTER.  WITH COLD                   
 ADVECTION INCREASING AFTER 0Z...HAVE RAISED CIGS/VSBYS AS COLD LAYER           
 DEEPENS OVER METROPLEX.  SOME SLEET MAY BE POSSIBLE AS WELL.  TR.92            
 &&                                                                             
 .DISCUSSION...                                                                 
 NORTH TEXAS WEATHER REMAINS VERY INTERESTING TODAY AS WE WILL                  
 CONTINUE TO SEE FREEZING RAIN IN THE WEST...AND A CHANCE OF                    
 FLOODING IN THE EAST. THE FREEZE LINE WILL ALSO NOT MOVE                       
 SIGNIFICANTLY TODAY BUT A SURGE OF MUCH COLDER AIR TONIGHT WILL                
 PUSH IT INTO SOUTHERN ZONES BY MORNING. IN TURN...PRECIP SHOULD                
 END IN NORTHERN PORTIONS TONIGHT...WITH LIGHT WINTER PRECIP                    
 DEVELOPING IN THE SOUTH.  CURRENT ONGOING CONVECTION IN THE                    
 SOUTHEAST WILL BE A PROBLEM AGAIN TODAY. AS FOR HEAVY                          
 RAINS...WHILE WE DO NOT ANTICIPATE THE HEAVY RAINFALL AMOUNTS AS               
 YESTERDAY...IT WILL NOT TAKE MUCH TO CAUSE FLOODING PROBLEMS.                  
 HENCE...WE WILL NOT CHANGE THE CURRENT WATCHES...WARNING OR                    
 ADVISORY.                                                                      
 NEXT WAVE OF ENERGY IS EJECTING NORTHEAST INTO THE REGION THIS                 
 MORNING WITH RAIN AREA INCREASING AND MOVING INTO THE WESTERN CWA.             
 THIS WILL BE A SIGNIFICANT PROBLEM AS TEMPERATURES WILL NOT WARM               
 MUCH TODAY...KEEPING WESTERN PORTIONS AT OR BELOW FREEZING AS ICE              
 CONTINUES TO ACCUMULATE. ON RADAR THE RETURNS MAY NOT LOOK                     
 SIGNIFICANT BUT WITH THE TEMPERATURE AT OR BELOW FREEZING FOR SUCH             
 A LONG TIME...EVEN SMALL AMOUNTS CAN CAUSE SIGNIFICANT PROBLEMS ON             
 BRIDGES...OVERPASSES...TREES AND POWER LINES. TOTAL ICE AMOUNTS                
 THROUGH TONIGHT IN THE ICE STORM WARNING AREA WILL RANGE BETWEEN               
 ONE QUARTER AND THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH. SOME MINOR AMOUNTS OF               
 SLEET WILL BE POSSIBLE LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT.                                
 WINTER PRECIP WILL MOVE INTO THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS LATER TONIGHT AS            
 TEMPERATURES FINALLY BEGIN TO FALL. AT THE SAME TIME...THE SYSTEM              
 WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN...LESSENING THE CHANCE FOR SIGNIFICANT WINTER             
 PRECIP. HOWEVER...AS EVENTS DEVELOP TODAY AND ADDITIONAL MODEL                 
 DATA IS REVIEWED...THE WATCH WILL BE MODIFIED AS NEEDED.                       
 IN THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST TEMPERATURES REMAIN BELOW              
 NORMAL...BUT SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING...WITH PERIODS OF RAIN               
 TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK.                                                    
 &&                                                                             
 .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                               
 DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  33  24  31  20  33 / 100  80  30  10  10                 
 WACO, TX              34  29  32  23  32 / 100  80  70  20  10                 
 PARIS, TX             36  26  32  17  31 / 100  80  50  10  10                 
 DENTON, TX            31  23  31  19  33 / 100  80  30  10  10                 
 MCKINNEY, TX          32  24  31  19  32 / 100  80  30  10  10                 
 DALLAS, TX            33  25  31  19  32 / 100  80  50  10  10                 
 TERRELL, TX           34  27  32  19  32 / 100  80  50  10  10                 
 CORSICANA, TX         35  29  32  21  31 / 100 100  70  20  10                 
 TEMPLE, TX            36  29  32  23  31 / 100 100  70  40  20                 
 &&                                                                             
 .FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                            
 ICE STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 AM CST MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:               
 TXZ091>094-100>104-115>120-129>133-141>144-156-157.                            
 FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE FOLLOWING                     
 ZONES: TXZ095-105>107-121>123-134-135-145>148-158>162-174-175.                 
 WINTER STORM WATCH FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON                  
 FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:                                                       
 TXZ107-122-123-135-146>148-158>162-174-175.                                    
 FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING                 
 ZONES: TXZ095-105-106-121-134-145.                                             
 &&                                                                             
 $$                                                                             
 92/42                                                                          
</pre> tx                                                                       

 AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR AVIATION                                
 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX                                         
 550 AM CST SUN JAN 14 2007                                                     
 .AVIATION...                                                                   
 DIFFICULT FORECAST...AND AMENDMENTS ARE LIKELY AS TRENDS BECOME MORE           
 APPARENT.  CIGS ARE LOWERING...LIKELY IN RESPONSE TO THE                       
 APPROACHING SHORTWAVE...WITH PRESSURE FALLS NOTED ACROSS THE STATE.            
 VSBYS WILL ALSO FALL TO MVFR/IFR DURING THE MORNING HOURS WITH FZDZ            
 ACCOMPANYING THE BR AT TIMES. INCREASING 850 MB FLOW SHOULD ENHANCE            
 ISENTROPIC LIFT DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS WITH AN INCREASE IN SHRA.            
 RUC/NAM FORECASTS ARE DEPICTING A TRAJECTORY OFF THE MEXICAN                   
 MOUNTAINS WHICH BRINGS DRY AIR INTO THE AREA AND ALTERS QPF                    
 PLACEMENT. PREFER THE GFS/UKMET/ECMWF LOW LEVEL WIND FORECAST WHICH            
 ALIGNS WITH THE CURRENT TRENDS...AND SUGGESTS BEST CHANCE OF FZRA              
 OVER THE METROPLEX AFTER 9 AM AND LASTING THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON.              
 SUSPECT THAT BATCH OF SHOWERS NEAR AUSTIN IS THE BEGINNINGS OF THE             
 ACTIVITY THAT WILL AFFECT THE METROPLEX.  FOR ACT SAME TRENDS WITH             
 CIGS/VSBYS HAVE BEEN FORECAST...BUT HAVE KEPT PRECIP LIQUID THROUGH            
 THIS EVENING...BUT CHANGED IT TO FZRA THEREAFTER.  WITH COLD                   
 ADVECTION INCREASING AFTER 0Z...HAVE RAISED CIGS/VSBYS AS COLD LAYER           
 DEEPENS OVER METROPLEX.  SOME SLEET MAY BE POSSIBLE AS WELL.  TR.92            
 &&                                                                             
 .DISCUSSION...                                                                 
 NORTH TEXAS WEATHER REMAINS VERY INTERESTING TODAY AS WE WILL                  
 CONTINUE TO SEE FREEZING RAIN IN THE WEST...AND A CHANCE OF                    
 FLOODING IN THE EAST. THE FREEZE LINE WILL ALSO NOT MOVE                       
 SIGNIFICANTLY TODAY BUT A SURGE OF MUCH COLDER AIR TONIGHT WILL                
 PUSH IT INTO SOUTHERN ZONES BY MORNING. IN TURN...PRECIP SHOULD                
 END IN NORTHERN PORTIONS TONIGHT...WITH LIGHT WINTER PRECIP                    
 DEVELOPING IN THE SOUTH.  CURRENT ONGOING CONVECTION IN THE                    
 SOUTHEAST WILL BE A PROBLEM AGAIN TODAY. AS FOR HEAVY                          
 RAINS...WHILE WE DO NOT ANTICIPATE THE HEAVY RAINFALL AMOUNTS AS               
 YESTERDAY...IT WILL NOT TAKE MUCH TO CAUSE FLOODING PROBLEMS.                  
 HENCE...WE WILL NOT CHANGE THE CURRENT WATCHES...WARNING OR                    
 ADVISORY.                                                                      
 NEXT WAVE OF ENERGY IS EJECTING NORTHEAST INTO THE REGION THIS                 
 MORNING WITH RAIN AREA INCREASING AND MOVING INTO THE WESTERN CWA.             
 THIS WILL BE A SIGNIFICANT PROBLEM AS TEMPERATURES WILL NOT WARM               
 MUCH TODAY...KEEPING WESTERN PORTIONS AT OR BELOW FREEZING AS ICE              
 CONTINUES TO ACCUMULATE. ON RADAR THE RETURNS MAY NOT LOOK                     
 SIGNIFICANT BUT WITH THE TEMPERATURE AT OR BELOW FREEZING FOR SUCH             
 A LONG TIME...EVEN SMALL AMOUNTS CAN CAUSE SIGNIFICANT PROBLEMS ON             
 BRIDGES...OVERPASSES...TREES AND POWER LINES. TOTAL ICE AMOUNTS                
 THROUGH TONIGHT IN THE ICE STORM WARNING AREA WILL RANGE BETWEEN               
 ONE QUARTER AND THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH. SOME MINOR AMOUNTS OF               
 SLEET WILL BE POSSIBLE LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT.                                
 WINTER PRECIP WILL MOVE INTO THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS LATER TONIGHT AS            
 TEMPERATURES FINALLY BEGIN TO FALL. AT THE SAME TIME...THE SYSTEM              
 WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN...LESSENING THE CHANCE FOR SIGNIFICANT WINTER             
 PRECIP. HOWEVER...AS EVENTS DEVELOP TODAY AND ADDITIONAL MODEL                 
 DATA IS REVIEWED...THE WATCH WILL BE MODIFIED AS NEEDED.                       
 IN THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST TEMPERATURES REMAIN BELOW              
 NORMAL...BUT SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING...WITH PERIODS OF RAIN               
 TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK.                                                    
 &&                                                                             
 .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                               
 DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  33  24  31  20  33 / 100  80  30  10  10                 
 WACO, TX              34  29  32  23  32 / 100  80  70  20  10                 
 PARIS, TX             36  26  32  17  31 / 100  80  50  10  10                 
 DENTON, TX            31  23  31  19  33 / 100  80  30  10  10                 
 MCKINNEY, TX          32  24  31  19  32 / 100  80  30  10  10                 
 DALLAS, TX            33  25  31  19  32 / 100  80  50  10  10                 
 TERRELL, TX           34  27  32  19  32 / 100  80  50  10  10                 
 CORSICANA, TX         35  29  32  21  31 / 100 100  70  20  10                 
 TEMPLE, TX            36  29  32  23  31 / 100 100  70  40  20                 
 &&                                                                             
 .FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                            
 ICE STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 AM CST MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:               
 TXZ091>094-100>104-115>120-129>133-141>144-156-157.                            
 FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE FOLLOWING                     
 ZONES: TXZ095-105>107-121>123-134-135-145>148-158>162-174-175.                 
 WINTER STORM WATCH FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON                  
 FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:                                                       
 TXZ107-122-123-135-146>148-158>162-174-175.                                    
 FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING                 
 ZONES: TXZ095-105-106-121-134-145.                                             
 &&                                                                             
 $$                                                                             
 92/42                                                                          
</pre> tx                                                                       

 AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                       
 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX                                         
 1110 PM CST FRI JAN 12 2007                                                    
 .AVIATION...                                                                   
 SCATTERED AREAS OF PCPN WILL CONTINUE ACROSS WEST CENTRAL TEXAS                
 TONIGHT. THE PCPN WILL REMAIN FZRA ACROSS THE BIG COUNTRY. THE                 
 ARCTIC COLD FRONT IS LOCATED JUST NORTH OF THE I-10 CORRIDOR. PCPN             
 WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD ON SATURDAY AS A STRONG UPPER LEVEL                
 SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE ARCTIC AIRMASS OVER NORTHERN AND CENTRAL               
 TEXAS. THE PCPN TYPE WILL REMAIN FZRA ACROSS THE BIG COUNTRY THROUGH           
 SATURDAY...WITH POSSIBLE FZRA ALONG A KBWD TO KSJT TO MERTZON LINE             
 ON SATURDAY. IFR CIGS OF BLO OVC010 ARE EXPECTED ACROSS WEST CENTRAL           
 TEXAS THROUGH 14/06Z.  21                                                      
 &&                                                                             
 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1105 PM CST FRI JAN 12 2007/                       
 UPDATE...UPDATED ONCE MORE TO ACCOUNT FOR CURRENT TEMPERATURE                  
 TRENDS WHICH WERE SLIGHTLY COOLER BEHIND THE FRONT THAN FORECAST.              
 EXTRAPOLATED TRENDS OUT THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING AND PUSHED THE                
 FRONT A LITTLE FURTHER TO THE SOUTH OF I-10. WHILE MUCH OF THE                 
 WIDESPREAD RAIN HAS ENDED FOR THE TIME BEING...KSJT RADAR                      
 INDICATES ISENTROPIC LIFT IS INCREASING AND ECHOES ARE ONCE AGAIN              
 BEGINNING TO INCREASE. EXPECT THIS TREND TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE               
 REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT AS NEXT DISTURBANCE IS CURRENTLY MOVING             
 INTO THE BIG BEND REGION. PERIODIC DISTURBANCES WILL CONTINUE TO               
 MOVE ACROSS THE REGION. FREEZING LINE PER MESONET DATA FROM ROBERT             
 LEE TO NEAR BROWNWOOD. WHERE THE LIGHT FREEZING RAIN IS NOT                    
 OCCURRING NORTH OF THIS LINE...AREAS OF FOG AND FREEZING DRIZZLE               
 WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE LIGHT ICE ACCUMULATIONS UNTIL MORE                    
 SUBSTANTIAL PRECIPITATION STARTS LATER.                                        
 BRAZZELL                                                                       
 PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 913 PM CST FRI JAN 12 2007/                         
 UPDATE...                                                                      
 UPDATE IS MAINLY FOR EXTENDING THE ICE STORM WARNING ONE SET OF                
 COUNTIES FURTHER SOUTH WHICH INCLUDES THE NORTHERN CONCHO VALLEY               
 AND NORTHERN HEARTLAND. ARCTIC COLD FRONT IS NOW LOCATED SOUTH OF              
 A KBWD TO KSJT LINE...AND TEMPERATURES HAVE FALLEN INTO THE MID TO             
 UPPER 20S ACROSS THE BIG COUNTRY. STRONG SUB TROPICAL JET WITH                 
 DISTURBANCES MOVING NORTHEAST SHOULD KEEP SCATTERED AREAS OF PCPN              
 GOING THROUGH TONIGHT. LATEST MODEL RUN INDICATING MAIN UPPER                  
 LEVEL TROF LIFTING NORTHEAST ACROSS AREA SATURDAY NIGHT AND                    
 SUNDAY...LEADING TO NEXT ROUND OF FZRA AND POSSIBLE SIGNIFICANT                
 ICE ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF WEST CENTRAL TEXAS.              
 PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 557 PM CST FRI JAN 12 2007/                         
 UPDATE...UPDATE ALREADY ISSUED TO ACCOUNT FOR TEMEPRATURE TRENDS               
 ALREADY COOLER THAN GRIDS. FREEZING LINE NOW APPROACHING KABI WITH             
 SOME TROUBLE SPOTS ACROSS HASKELL AND THROCKMORTON COUNTIES                    
 ALREADY OCCURING. ANTICIPATE THAT WE MAY HAVE TO PUSH THE WARNING              
 ONE MORE ROW OF COUNTIES TO THE SOUTH THIS EVENING...BUT WOULD                 
 LIKE TO LOOK AT A LITTLE MORE INFORMATION BEFORE MAKING THAT FINAL             
 CALL THIS EVENING.                                                             
 BRAZZELL                                                                       
 PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 310 PM CST FRI JAN 12 2007/                         
 WINTER RETURNS WITH A VENGEANCE...                                             
 SHORT TERM...                                                                  
 A DIFFICULT FORECAST OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS AN ARCTIC AIR MASS              
 MOVES SOUTH ACROSS THE CWA. THE CHALLENGES WITH THIS FORECAST ARE              
 HOW FAR SOUTH THE FREEZING PRECIPITATION WILL OCCUR AND HOW MUCH               
 WILL ACCUMULATE. THERE IS A GOOD CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION THIS                 
 WEEKEND BUT HOW FAR SOUTH THE ARCTIC FRONT PROGRESSES BEFORE IT                
 STALLS WILL BE THE DETERMINING FACTOR. THE MODELS HAVE BEEN TOO                
 SLOW WITH THE SOUTHWARD PROGRESSION OF THE ARCTIC FRONT...WITH THE             
 RUC/NAM MODELS APPEARING TO HAVE THE BEST HANDLE ON THE ARCTIC                 
 FRONT. THE FRONT IS ALREADY ALONG THE I-20 CORRIDOR AND                        
 TEMPERATURES ARE FALLING. TEMPERATURES ARE AT OR BELOW FREEZING                
 ACROSS THE NORTHERN BIG COUNTRY AND THE RAIN THAT IS FALLING                   
 ACROSS THE BIG COUNTRY WILL CHANGE OVER TO FREEZING RAIN AFTER                 
 SUNSET. WITH THE STRONGEST LIFT ON SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY                   
 MORNING EXPECT THE LARGEST FREEZING RAIN ACCUMULATIONS TO OCCUR                
 DURING THIS TIME PERIOD.                                                       
 ACROSS THE BIG COUNTRY IN GENERAL EXPECT ICE ACCUMULATIONS TONIGHT             
 THROUGH SUNDAY TO BE BETWEEN ONE QUARTER TO ONE HALF OF INCH...SOME            
 ISOLATED AREAS COULD SEE ICE ACCUMULATIONS UP TO ONE INCH.                     
 ACROSS THE HEARTLAND AND CONCHO VALLEY EXPECT LESS ICE ACCUMULATION            
 TO OCCUR WITH TOTALS SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY LESS THAN ONE               
 QUARTER OF AN INCH.                                                            
 TEMPERATURES WILL NOT REBOUND QUICKLY SO WHAT ICE THAT ACCUMULATES WILL STAY   
 AROUND THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK.                                    
 LONG TERM...                                                                   
 MODELS DIVERGE THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEK WITH THE GFS SHOWING AN               
 UPPER RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE WEST COAST WITH THE MAIN LOBE OF THE             
 UPPER TROUGH DIGGING FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE SOUTHWEST                
 UNDERCUTTING THE ADVANCING WEST COAST RIDGE. GFS EVENTUALLY MERGES             
 THIS FEATURE WITH A WEST COAST TROUGH MOVING SOUTH ALONG THE PACIFIC           
 COAST AND RETROGRADES THE ENTIRE PACKAGE. PREFER THE NAM THAT HAS              
 THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS MOVING EAST OF THE AREA LATE SUNDAY AND            
 THE WEST COAST RIDGE BUILDING EAST INTO THE WESTERN STATES. WITH THIS          
 SCENARIO...PRECIPITATION ENDS QUICKER OVER THE FORECAST AREA WITH              
 THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD MOVING EAST AHEAD OF THE UPPER TROUGH BY              
 MONDAY AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB SLOWLY THROUGH THE END OF            
 THE WEEK TO AROUND SEASONAL NORMALS BY THE COMING WEEKEND.                     
 &&                                                                             
 .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                               
 ABILENE  25  29  28  31 /  70  60  70  70                                      
 SAN ANGELO  31  36  32  40 /  60  60  70  70                                   
 JUNCTION  41  47  39  46 /  60  70  70  70                                     
 &&                                                                             
 .SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                            
 ICE STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM CST SUNDAY FOR CALLAHAN-FISHER-                   
 HASKELL-JONES-NOLAN-SHACKELFORD-TAYLOR-THROCKMORTON.                           
 WINTER STORM WATCH FROM 6 AM CST SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY                       
 AFTERNOON FOR CONCHO-IRION-MCCULLOCH-SAN SABA-TOM GREEN.                       
 ICE STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM CST SUNDAY FOR BROWN-COKE-COLEMAN-                
 RUNNELS-STERLING.                                                              
 &&                                                                             
 $$                                                                             
</pre> tx                                                                       

 AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                       
 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX                                         
 1105 PM CST FRI JAN 12 2007                                                    
 .UPDATE...UPDATED ONCE MORE TO ACCOUNT FOR CURRENT TEMPERATURE                 
 TRENDS WHICH WERE SLIGHTLY COOLER BEHIND THE FRONT THAN FORECAST.              
 EXTRAPOLATED TRENDS OUT THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING AND PUSHED THE                
 FRONT A LITTLE FURTHER TO THE SOUTH OF I-10. WHILE MUCH OF THE                 
 WIDESPREAD RAIN HAS ENDED FOR THE TIME BEING...KSJT RADAR                      
 INDICATES ISENTROPIC LIFT IS INCREASING AND ECHOES ARE ONCE AGAIN              
 BEGINNING TO INCREASE. EXPECT THIS TREND TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE               
 REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT AS NEXT DISTURBANCE IS CURRENTLY MOVING             
 INTO THE BIG BEND REGION. PERIODIC DISTURBANCES WILL CONTINUE TO               
 MOVE ACROSS THE REGION. FREEZING LINE PER MESONET DATA FROM ROBERT             
 LEE TO NEAR BROWNWOOD. WHERE THE LIGHT FREEZING RAIN IS NOT                    
 OCCURRING NORTH OF THIS LINE...AREAS OF FOG AND FREEZING DRIZZLE               
 WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE LIGHT ICE ACCUMULATIONS UNTIL MORE                    
 SUBSTANTIAL PRECIPITATION STARTS LATER.                                        
 BRAZZELL                                                                       
 &&                                                                             
 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 913 PM CST FRI JAN 12 2007/                        
 UPDATE...                                                                      
 UPDATE IS MAINLY FOR EXTENDING THE ICE STORM WARNING ONE SET OF                
 COUNTIES FURTHER SOUTH WHICH INCLUDES THE NORTHERN CONCHO VALLEY               
 AND NORTHERN HEARTLAND. ARCTIC COLD FRONT IS NOW LOCATED SOUTH OF              
 A KBWD TO KSJT LINE...AND TEMPERATURES HAVE FALLEN INTO THE MID TO             
 UPPER 20S ACROSS THE BIG COUNTRY. STRONG SUB TROPICAL JET WITH                 
 DISTURBANCES MOVING NORTHEAST SHOULD KEEP SCATTERED AREAS OF PCPN              
 GOING THROUGH TONIGHT. LATEST MODEL RUN INDICATING MAIN UPPER                  
 LEVEL TROF LIFTING NORTHEAST ACROSS AREA SATURDAY NIGHT AND                    
 SUNDAY...LEADING TO NEXT ROUND OF FZRA AND POSSIBLE SIGNIFICANT                
 ICE ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF WEST CENTRAL TEXAS.              
 PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 618 PM CST FRI JAN 12 2007/                         
 AVIATION...                                                                    
 WIDESPREAD PCPN CONTINUES ACROSS THE EASTERN 2/3 WEST CENTRAL TEXAS.           
 THE PCPN IS IN THE FORM OF FZRA ACROSS THE NORTHERN BIG COUNTRY. THE           
 ARCTIC COLD FRONT IS LOCATED NEAR A KDFW-KBWD-KSJT LINE. THE FRONT             
 WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTH DURING TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. THERE MAY             
 BE A BREAK IN THE PCPN LATER TONIGHT...AND THEN BECOME WIDESPREAD ON           
 SATURDAY AS A STRONG UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE ARCTIC                
 AIRMASS OVER NORTHERN AND CENTRAL TEXAS. THE PCPN TYPE WILL REMAIN             
 FZRA ACROSS THE BIG COUNTRY THROUGH SATURDAY...WITH POSSIBLE FZRA              
 ALONG A KBWD TO KSJT TO MERTZON LINE ON SATURDAY. IFR CIGS OF BLO              
 OVC010 EXPECTED ACROSS THE MUCH OF WEST CENTRAL TEXAS THROUGH                  
 14/00Z.                                                                        
 PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 557 PM CST FRI JAN 12 2007/                         
 UPDATE...UPDATE ALREADY ISSUED TO ACCOUNT FOR TEMEPRATURE TRENDS               
 ALREADY COOLER THAN GRIDS. FREEZING LINE NOW APPROACHING KABI WITH             
 SOME TROUBLE SPOTS ACROSS HASKELL AND THROCKMORTON COUNTIES                    
 ALREADY OCCURING. ANTICIPATE THAT WE MAY HAVE TO PUSH THE WARNING              
 ONE MORE ROW OF COUNTIES TO THE SOUTH THIS EVENING...BUT WOULD                 
 LIKE TO LOOK AT A LITTLE MORE INFORMATION BEFORE MAKING THAT FINAL             
 CALL THIS EVENING.                                                             
 BRAZZELL                                                                       
 PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 310 PM CST FRI JAN 12 2007/                         
 WINTER RETURNS WITH A VENGEANCE...                                             
 SHORT TERM...                                                                  
 A DIFFICULT FORECAST OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS AN ARCTIC AIR MASS              
 MOVES SOUTH ACROSS THE CWA. THE CHALLENGES WITH THIS FORECAST ARE              
 HOW FAR SOUTH THE FREEZING PRECIPITATION WILL OCCUR AND HOW MUCH               
 WILL ACCUMULATE. THERE IS A GOOD CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION THIS                 
 WEEKEND BUT HOW FAR SOUTH THE ARCTIC FRONT PROGRESSES BEFORE IT                
 STALLS WILL BE THE DETERMINING FACTOR. THE MODELS HAVE BEEN TOO                
 SLOW WITH THE SOUTHWARD PROGRESSION OF THE ARCTIC FRONT...WITH THE             
 RUC/NAM MODELS APPEARING TO HAVE THE BEST HANDLE ON THE ARCTIC                 
 FRONT. THE FRONT IS ALREADY ALONG THE I-20 CORRIDOR AND                        
 TEMPERATURES ARE FALLING. TEMPERATURES ARE AT OR BELOW FREEZING                
 ACROSS THE NORTHERN BIG COUNTRY AND THE RAIN THAT IS FALLING                   
 ACROSS THE BIG COUNTRY WILL CHANGE OVER TO FREEZING RAIN AFTER                 
 SUNSET. WITH THE STRONGEST LIFT ON SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY                   
 MORNING EXPECT THE LARGEST FREEZING RAIN ACCUMULATIONS TO OCCUR                
 DURING THIS TIME PERIOD.                                                       
 ACROSS THE BIG COUNTRY IN GENERAL EXPECT ICE ACCUMULATIONS TONIGHT             
 THROUGH SUNDAY TO BE BETWEEN ONE QUARTER TO ONE HALF OF INCH...SOME            
 ISOLATED AREAS COULD SEE ICE ACCUMULATIONS UP TO ONE INCH.                     
 ACROSS THE HEARTLAND AND CONCHO VALLEY EXPECT LESS ICE ACCUMULATION            
 TO OCCUR WITH TOTALS SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY LESS THAN ONE               
 QUARTER OF AN INCH.                                                            
 TEMPERATURES WILL NOT REBOUND QUICKLY SO WHAT ICE THAT ACCUMULATES WILL STAY   
 AROUND THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK.                                    
 LONG TERM...                                                                   
 MODELS DIVERGE THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEK WITH THE GFS SHOWING AN               
 UPPER RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE WEST COAST WITH THE MAIN LOBE OF THE             
 UPPER TROUGH DIGGING FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE SOUTHWEST                
 UNDERCUTTING THE ADVANCING WEST COAST RIDGE. GFS EVENTUALLY MERGES             
 THIS FEATURE WITH A WEST COAST TROUGH MOVING SOUTH ALONG THE PACIFIC           
 COAST AND RETROGRADES THE ENTIRE PACKAGE. PREFER THE NAM THAT HAS              
 THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS MOVING EAST OF THE AREA LATE SUNDAY AND            
 THE WEST COAST RIDGE BUILDING EAST INTO THE WESTERN STATES. WITH THIS          
 SCENARIO...PRECIPITATION ENDS QUICKER OVER THE FORECAST AREA WITH              
 THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD MOVING EAST AHEAD OF THE UPPER TROUGH BY              
 MONDAY AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB SLOWLY THROUGH THE END OF            
 THE WEEK TO AROUND SEASONAL NORMALS BY THE COMING WEEKEND.                     
 &&                                                                             
 .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                               
 ABILENE  62  25  29  28 /  50  70  60  70                                      
 SAN ANGELO  67  31  36  32 /  50  60  60  70                                   
 JUNCTION  67  41  47  39 /  60  60  70  70                                     
 &&                                                                             
 .SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                            
 ICE STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM CST SUNDAY FOR CALLAHAN-FISHER-                   
 HASKELL-JONES-NOLAN-SHACKELFORD-TAYLOR-THROCKMORTON.                           
 WINTER STORM WATCH FROM 6 AM CST SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY                       
 AFTERNOON FOR CONCHO-IRION-MCCULLOCH-SAN SABA-TOM GREEN.                       
 ICE STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM CST SUNDAY FOR BROWN-COKE-COLEMAN-                
 RUNNELS-STERLING.                                                              
 &&                                                                             
 $$                                                                             
 27/27                                                                          
</pre> tx                                                                       

 AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                       
 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPOKANE WA                                            
 1021 PM PST SAT JAN 13 2007                                                    
 .SYNOPSIS...A COLD AIR MASS WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION THROUGH                
 THE WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION THROUGH                 
 MONDAY NIGHT. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW WILL BE ON TUESDAY                
 AS A WEAKENING WEATHER DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH WASHINGTON.                   
 &&                                                                             
 .DISCUSSION...                                                                 
 SNOW HAS CLEARED ALL OF THE SPOKANE FORECAST AREA...WITH THE                   
 POSSIBLE EXCEPTION OF THE CAMAS PRAIRIE AND THE NORTHEAST BLUE                 
 MOUNTAINS. THE 06Z RUC ANALYSIS SHOW THE 500MB SHORTWAVE TROUGH                
 AXIS FROM NEAR BAKER CITY OREGON TO SALMON IDAHO. DESPITE WEAK LOW             
 LEVEL MIXING BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE...EASTERN WASHINGTON AND FAR                 
 NORTHERN IDAHO HAVE CLEARED OUT. THE FOG PRODUCT SHOWS POCKETS OF              
 LOW STRATUS DEVELOPING IN THE NORTHERN OKANOGAN VALLEY AS WELL AS              
 ALONG THE COLUMBIA RIVER NEAR KETTLE FALLS. SOME OF THE FOG AND                
 STRATUS MAY DEVELOP AS FAR SOUTH AS SPOKANE BY SUNDAY MORNING.                 
 ANY FOG AND STRATUS WILL BE PATCHY...AND SHOULD BE SHORT LIVED                 
 SINCE FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST MOISTURE IS CONFINED TO THE                   
 BOUNDARY LAYER. /GKOCH                                                         
 &&                                                                             
 .AVIATION...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH 06Z MONDAY              
 OVER CENTRAL AND EASTERN WASHINGTON...AS WELL AS THE NORTHERN                  
 IDAHO PANHANDLE. STRATUS IS EXPECTED TO CLEAR THE LEWISTON AREA BY             
 08Z AS THE SHORTWAVE THAT PRODUCED THE LIGHT SNOW IN THE AREA                  
 SINKS INTO EASTERN OREGON. SOME AREAS OF MVFR TO IFR VISIBILITIES              
 ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE SUNRISE SUNDAY ESPECIALLY NEAR OPEN WATER                
 SOURCES...BUT CONDITIONS SHOULD QUICKLY IMPROVE WITH DRY SURFACE               
 HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION. /GKOCH                                          
 &&                                                                             
 .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                               
 SPOKANE         1  18   6  21  10  24 /  10   0   0   0   0  20                
 COEUR D`ALENE   0  18   6  21  12  25 /  10   0   0   0   0  20                
 PULLMAN         3  19   7  23  15  26 /  50   0   0   0   0  20                
 LEWISTON        7  19  10  26  18  29 /  60   0   0   0   0  10                
 COLVILLE        0  16   0  19   7  22 /   0   0   0   0   0  20                
 SANDPOINT       2  17   3  20   7  22 /  10   0   0   0   0  20                
 KELLOGG         4  18   7  21  11  26 /  40   0   0   0   0  20                
 MOSES LAKE      7  21   9  24  13  27 /  10   0   0   0   0  20                
 WENATCHEE       9  21  10  24  14  28 /   0   0   0   0   0  20                
 OMAK           -4  17   3  20  11  22 /   0   0   0   0   0  20                
 &&                                                                             
 .OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                            
 ID...NONE.                                                                     
 WA...NONE.                                                                     
 &&                                                                             
 $$                                                                             
</pre> wa                                                                       

 AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                       
 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI                                          
 930 PM CST SUN JAN 14 2007                                                     
 .UPDATE...LATEST RADAR AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATED AN                   
 EXPANSIVE AREA OF SNOW ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.                    
 FORCING MECHANISMS ASSOCIATED WITH SNOW MANIFESTED BY ISENTROPIC               
 LIFT ON THE 285K SURFACE...UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE AND DEEP LAYERED             
 Q-G CONVERGENCE. IN FACT...LATEST RUC AND NAM/WRF SUGGESTED                    
 HEAVIER SNOW BANDS ASSOCIATED WITH Q-G CONVERGENCE STILL TO COME               
 DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS UNTIL ABATING AFTER ABOUT 09Z 15JAN07.              
 CURRENT FORECAST APPEARS TO BE IN GOOD SHAPE FOR THE OVERNIGHT                 
 HOURS. NO UPDATES PLANNED AT THIS TIME...BUT PLEASE REFERENCE                  
 LATEST SHORT TERM FORECASTS AND WINTER WEATHER STATEMENTS. IN                  
 ADDITION...WE WILL BE SENDING A LIST OF LATEST SNOWFALL REPORTS                
 IN A PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT BEFORE 04Z THIS EVENING. THANKS              
 TO MEDIA PARTNERS AND WEATHER OBSERVERS FOR THE REPORTS SO FAR                 
 THIS EVENING.                                                                  
 &&                                                                             
 .ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                            
 WI...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 12 PM CST MONDAY FOR WIZ029-WIZ032-            
      WIZ033-WIZ034-WIZ041-WIZ042-WIZ043-WIZ044-WIZ053-WIZ054-                  
      WIZ055-WIZ061.                                                            
      SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 12 PM CST MONDAY FOR WIZ017.                          
 MN...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 12 PM CST MONDAY FOR MNZ079-MNZ086-            
      MNZ087-MNZ088-MNZ094-MNZ095-MNZ096.                                       
 IA...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 12 PM CST MONDAY FOR IAZ008-IAZ009-            
      IAZ010-IAZ011-IAZ018-IAZ019-IAZ029-IAZ030.                                
 &&                                                                             
 $$                                                                             
 THOMPSON                                                                       
</pre> wi                                                                       

 AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                       
 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI                                 
 244 PM CST SUN JAN 14 2007                                                     
 .DISCUSSION...FORECAST FOCUS ON APPROACHING WINTER STORM.                      
 .SHORT TERM...HAVE UPGRADED TO WINTER STORM WARNING FOR TONIGHT                
 AND MONDAY FOR ENTIRE CWA.                                                     
 CURRENT PRESENT WEATHER TRENDS CONTINUE TO BE IMPRESSIVE WITH                  
 STORM SYSTEM OVER CENTRAL US. EARLIER EVALUATION OF 12Z                        
 RUC/NGM/NAM MODELS APPEAR TO STILL BE OUTPERFORMING 12Z GFS PROG               
 WITH REGARDS TO STRENGTH OF SYSTEM. THEREFORE HAVE LEANED TOWARD               
 NAM SOLUTION AS MANY FACTORS CONTINUE TO COME INTO FOCUS FOR A                 
 DECENT WINTER STORM FOR SOUTHERN WISCONSIN. AMONG THEM...A DEEPER              
 SURFACE LOW WITH A TRACK MOVEMENT MORE NORTHWEST OF PREVIOUS                   
 POSITIONS...STRONGER DEVELOPMENT OF 925 MILLIBAR AND 850 MILLIBAR              
 LOW WITH TRACK OVER SWEET SPOT FROM EASTERN ILLINOIS TO NORTHWEST              
 INDIANA...AND INFLUX OF MORE MOISTURE WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER                  
 VALUES APPROACHING 1 INCH OVER SOUTHEAST CORNER OF STATE. ALSO A               
 STRONG JET...WITH POSSIBLE COUPLING OF UPPER JET MAXIMA...IN                   
 SOUTHWEST FLOW WITH IMPRESSIVE 250/300 MILLIBAR DIVERGENCE                     
 BULLSEYE OVER SOUTHERN WISCONSIN CENTERED AT 06Z MONDAY.                       
 BUFKIT DATA SHOWS LAKE CONTRIBUTION AND SOME INSTABILITY TO HELP               
 ENHANCE SNOW AMOUNTS ALONG LAKE SHORE AREAS. THEREFORE HAVE BEEFED             
 UP SNOWFALL AMOUNTS ALONG LAKE SHORE AREA. ALSO DECENT NORTHEAST               
 SURFACE WINDS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO SOME BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW.               
 BUFKIT DATA ALSO SHOWS EFFECT OF DRY SLOT ENTERING INTO SOUTHERN               
 WISCONSIN AFTER 3AM TONIGHT. THIS DRY SLOT MAY RETARD SNOWFALL                 
 RATES FOR A TIME AS WELL AS PRODUCE SLEET OR FREEZING DRIZZLE. AT              
 THE MOMENT THIS DRY SLOT WILL AFFECT MAINLY SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF               
 THE CWA. COBB SNOW RATIOS AROUND 13:1 USED BUT TREND TOWARD 20:1               
 MONDAY AS COLDER AIR ENTRAINS INTO REGION.                                     
 .LONG TERM...A MAINLY DRY AND COLD PERIOD WILL BE THE WEATHER                  
 RULE AS WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW DOMINATES THE WEATHER PATTERN. ANY              
 WEATHER SYSTEMS IN THIS FLOW WILL CONTAIN LIMITED MOISTURE.                    
 &&                                                                             
 .MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                            
 WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM CST MONDAY                 
 FOR WIZ046-WIZ047-WIZ051-WIZ052-WIZ056-WIZ057-WIZ058-WIZ059-                   
 WIZ060-WIZ062-WIZ063-WIZ064-WIZ065-WIZ066-WIZ067-WIZ068-WIZ069-                
 WIZ070-WIZ071-WIZ072.                                                          
 &&                                                                             
 $$                                                                             
 ZAJDEL                                                                         
</pre> wi                                                                       

 AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                       
 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI                                 
 1018 AM CST SUN JAN 14 2007                                                    
 .UPDATE...HAVE ISSUED WINTER STORM WATCH VALID FOR TONIGHT AND                 
 MONDAY FOR ENTIRE CWA. CURRENT PRESENT WEATHER TRENDS WITH STORM               
 SYSTEM OVER CENTRAL US...12Z UPPER AIR ANALYSIS...AND EVALUATIONS              
 OF 12Z RUC/NGM/NAM MODELS SHOW MANY FACTORS NOW COMING INTO FOCUS              
 FOR A DECENT WINTER STORM FOR SOUTHERN WISCONSIN. AMONG NEW TRENDS             
 IS A TREND TOWARD A DEEPER SURFACE LOW WITH A TRACK MOVEMENT MORE              
 NORTHWEST OF PREVIOUS POSITIONS...STRONGER DEVELOPMENT OF 925                  
 MILLIBAR AND 850 MILLIBAR LOW WITH TRACK OVER SWEET SPOT FROM                  
 EASTERN ILLINOIS TO NORTHWEST INDIANA...AND INFLUX OF MORE                     
 MOISTURE WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES APPROACHING 1 INCH OVER                
 SOUTHEAST CORNER OF STATE. A STRONGER JET IN SOUTHWEST FLOW WITH               
 IMPRESSIVE 250/300 MILLIBAR DIVERGENCE BULLSEYE OVER SOUTHERN                  
 WISCONSIN CENTERED AT 06Z MONDAY. QUICK EVALUATION OF BUFKIT DATA              
 SHOWS LAKE CONTRIBUTION AND SOME INSTABILITY TO HELP ENHANCE SNOW              
 AMOUNTS ALONG LAKE SHORE AREAS. WILL AWAIT 12Z GFS AND WATCH                   
 CURRENT WEATHER TRENDS FOR POSSIBLE UPGRADE TO WARNING LATER                   
 TODAY.                                                                         
 &&                                                                             
 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 314 AM CST SUN JAN 14 2007/                        
 DISCUSSION...FORECAST FOCUS IS ON WEATHER EVENT TONIGHT AND EARLY              
 MONDAY MORNING.                                                                
 MODELS HAVE COME INTO GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS NEXT SYSTEM...AS                
 FAR AS MID AND HIGH LEVEL DYNAMICS ARE CONCERNED. THE SURFACE                  
 SYSTEM IS STILL EXPECTED TO TRACK WELL SOUTH OF WISCONSIN.                     
 HOWEVER...THE H850 BAROCLINIC ZONE IS NOW EXPECTED TO BE MAINLY                
 ACROSS NORTHERN ILLINOIS...WITH WEAK SOME WEAK OVERRUNNING INTO                
 SOUTHERN WISCONSIN.                                                            
 THE MOST SIGNIFICANT DYNAMICS WILL BE IN THE MID LEVELS WITH A                 
 PERIOD OF STRONG OMEGA CENTERED AROUND 06Z MONDAY. THERE WILL ALSO             
 BE SOME PERSISTENT MODERATE FRONTOGENETIC FORCING BETWEEN H850 AND             
 H700. THERE IS LITTLE EVIDENCE OF THETA-E RIDGING...BUT THERE                  
 SHOULD BE SOME H500 DIVERGENCE.                                                
 THE PROBLEM IS THAT THE TEMPERATURE PROFILES ARE NEARLY                        
 ISOTHERMAL...RANGING FROM AROUND -5 TO -10 FROM THE SURFACE TO                 
 AROUND 12K FEET. BUFFY IS INDICATING THAT NO ICE CRYSTALS WILL BE              
 PRESENT IN THE CLOUDS...AND TO CONSIDER FREEZING DRIZZLE. COBB                 
 WATER/SNOW RATIO IS EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 9:1 OVERNIGHT. HPC..GFS              
 AND WRF 12 HOUR QPF ARE GENERALLY IDENTICAL...THE NAM IS A BIT                 
 HIGHER. USING A 13:1 PESSIMISTIC RATIO...I CAN ONLY GET AROUND 3               
 INCHES OVERNIGHT...AND ONLY 1 INCH OR SO MONDAY MORNING. I WILL                
 HOLD OFF ON AN ADVISORY AT THIS TIME DUE TO LACK OF CONFIDENCE                 
 THAT THE SITUATION WILL DEVELOP.                                               
 MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
 NONE.                                                                          
 $$                                                                             
 &&                                                                             
 .MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                            
 WINTER STORM WATCH FROM 6 PM CST THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY                   
 AFTERNOON FOR WIZ046-WIZ047-WIZ051-WIZ052-WIZ056-WIZ057-WIZ058-                
 WIZ059-WIZ060-WIZ062-WIZ063-WIZ064-WIZ065-WIZ066-WIZ067-WIZ068-                
 WIZ069-WIZ070-WIZ071-WIZ072.                                                   
 &&                                                                             
 $$                                                                             
 ZAJDEL/FOWLE                                                                   
</pre> wi                                                                       

 AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                       
 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI                                          
 1115 PM CST SAT JAN 13 2007                                                    
 .UPDATE...CLOUDS PRODUCING ICE CRYSTALS TO SUPPORT MAINLY SNOW                 
 SHOULD BE GIVING WAY TO CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES OF WARMER THAN                  
 MINUS 10C. THEREFORE...FREEZING DRIZZLE SHOULD BE MORE OF A THREAT             
 IN THE SOUTHWEST CORNER OF WI AND ADJACENT PARTS OF NORTHEAST IOWA.            
 LATEST RUC FORECAST SOUNDINGS...AS WELL AS KDMX RADAR IMAGE AND                
 SURFACE OBSERVATIONS UPSTREAM OVER CENTRAL IOWA SUPPORT THIS.                  
 UPDATED APPROPRIATE ZONES AT 0445Z IN AFOREMENTIONED AREAS FOR                 
 WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS TONIGHT.                   
 &&                                                                             
 .ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                            
 WI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM CST SUNDAY FOR WIZ054-WIZ055-          
      WIZ061.                                                                   
 MN...NONE.                                                                     
 IA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM CST SUNDAY FOR IAZ029-IAZ030.          
 &&                                                                             
 $$                                                                             
 THOMPSON                                                                       
</pre> wi                                                                       

 AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                       
 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI                                          
 945 PM CST SAT JAN 13 2007                                                     
 .UPDATE...BASED ON LATEST RADAR AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS...LIGHT               
 SNOW FALLING OVER SOUTHWEST CORNER OF WI AND ADJACENT AREAS OF                 
 NORTHEAST IOWA. RECEIVED A GROUND TRUTH REPORT FROM WEATHER OBSERVER           
 BETWEEN KDPC AND KOLZ THAT WHEN SNOW STOPPED...FREEZING DRIZZLE                
 BEGAN. WITH BROAD...ALBEIT WEAK...UPWARD VERTICAL MOTIONS INDICATED            
 IN LATEST NAM/WRF AND RUC...WOULD EXPECT PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE               
 POTENTIAL TO CONTINUE INTO THE NIGHT.                                          
 ONCE AGAIN...HAVE UPDATED DATA BASE TO INCLUDE LATEST PRECIPITATION            
 TRENDS AND ISSUED ZONE UPDATE AT 0335Z. WILL ALSO UPDATE OUR                   
 HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK TO INCLUDE PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE IN                
 AFOREMENTIONED AREAS.                                                          
 &&                                                                             
 .ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                            
 WI...NONE.                                                                     
 MN...NONE.                                                                     
 IA...NONE.                                                                     
 &&                                                                             
 $$                                                                             
 THOMPSON                                                                       
</pre> wi                                                                       

 AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                       
 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI                                 
 830 PM CST SAT JAN 13 2007                                                     
 .DISCUSSION...REGIONAL MOSAIC SHOWING INCREASING ECHOES ACROSS                 
 EASTERN IOWA INTO SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA AND FAR SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN.             
 INCREASING RETURNS TIED IN NICELY WITH APPROACHING WEAK SHORT WAVE             
 OVER CENTRAL IOWA.  BOTH RUC AND NAM ISENTROPIC 295 THETA SURFACE              
 SHOWS CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS RAPIDLY LOWERING TO LESS THAN             
 10MB NEXT SEVERAL HOURS ACROSS ALL OF SOUTHERN WISCONSIN WITH WEAK             
 ISENTROPIC OMEGA DEVELOPING BY MIDNIGHT.  PROBLEM IS PRECIPITATION             
 TYPE. LOCAL THICKNESSES SHOW CONTINUED POTENTIAL FOR SLEET AND EVEN            
 SOME FREEZING RAIN/DRIZZLE IN THE SOUTH AND KDVN 00Z SOUNDING HAS              
 ABOVE FREEZING PORTION /+2/ BETWEEN 750 AND 850 MB. IN                         
 ADDITION...CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES AT KDVN AROUND -1 WHILE FARTHER              
 NORTH...RUC SOUNDINGS FOR MADISON SHOW TEMPERATURES BETWEEN -5 AND             
 -10.  INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGE WITH ICE ENHANCEMENT CURVE SHOWS                
 WARMER TEMPERATURES THAN -10 ACROSS CENTRAL IOWA INTO FAR SOUTHWEST            
 WISCONSIN.  HENCE WILL BE GOING WITH MORE OF A MIXTURE OF PRECIP FOR           
 THE OVERNIGHT WITH CONTINUED LIKELY WORDING.  ADDED MIXTURE THREAT             
 TO HWO FOR THE OVERNIGHT.                                                      
 &&                                                                             
 .MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                       
 &&                                                                             
 $$                                                                             
 MBK                                                                            
</pre> wi                                                                       

 AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                       
 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI                                 
 1148 AM CST SAT JAN 13 2007                                                    
 .UPDATE...                                                                     
 UPDATED FORECAST TO INCLUDE CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW OVER MAINLY                   
 WESTERN HALF OF CWA. RUC SEEMS TO HAVE BEST HANDLE ON THE ONGOING              
 PRECIP /LIGHT SNOW/ OVER IA ATTM...AND BRINGS BRIEF PERIOD OF LIFT             
 AND DEEP SATURATION ACROSS THE CWA DURING THE AFTERNOON. QPF                   
 AMOUNTS SHOULD BE LIGHT...WITH RUC GENERATING A COUPLE                         
 HUNDREDTHS...HOWEVER WITH VSBYS UPSTEAM DROPPING AROUND 1SM AT                 
 TIMES...COULD SEE UP TO HALF INCH OF SNOW. MAY NEED TO EVENTUALLY              
 DRAG SNOW CHANCES FURTHER EAST...BUT WILL HOLD OFF FOR TIME BEING.             
 ALSO WATCHING THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW LAKE EFFECT SNOW                         
 SHOWERS FM LAKE MICHIGAN...WITH MILWAUKEE TERMINAL DOPPLER RADAR               
 INDICATING A VERY WEAK BAND TRYING TO FORM ATTM. WITH RETURNS                  
 GNRLLY AOB 15DBZ...WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP MENTION OF A FEW FLURRIES.            
 MAF                                                                            
 &&                                                                             
 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 257 AM CST SAT JAN 13 2007/                        
 DISCUSSION...FORECAST FOCUS IS ON ACCUMULATION SNOW FOR SUNDAY                 
 EVENING THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.                                                
 TODAY SHOULD GENERALLY BE QUIET WITH ONLY SOME LAKE EFFECT FLURRIES            
 OR PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE. INVERSION IS ONLY AROUND 3K FEET AND               
 BUFFY IS INDICATING THE POSSIBILITY OF PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE DUE             
 TO THE LACK OF ICE CRYSTALS ABOVE 7K FEET. DELTA-T AROUND 12 DEGREES.          
 A MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS THE CWA TONIGHT. THERE IS SOME            
 FRONTOGENETIC FORCING BETWEEN H850 AND H700...BUT LITTLE ADDITIONAL            
 DYNAMICS. THE NAM SOLUTION TONIGHT IS MUCH STRONGER WITH THE MID               
 AND UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS...AND CONSEQUENTLY CRANKS OUT BETWEEN 1               
 AND 2 INCHES. THE NAM HOWEVER SEEMS TOO STRONG COMPARED TO THE                 
 REST OF THE MODELS. I WILL GENERALLY STAY WITH GFS POPS. SNOW                  
 ACCUMULATIONS WILL MAINLY BE LESS THAN 1/2 INCH.                               
 A MORE VIGOROUS SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN FROM SUNDAY             
 EVENING THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. THERE IS SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES               
 BETWEEN GFS AND NAM SOLUTION...WITH THE NAM BRINGING THE SURFACE               
 LOW AND H850 BAROCLINIC ZONE MUCH FURTHER NORTH. THE NAM APPEARS               
 TO BE THE OUTLIER HERE. I PREFER THE GFS SOLUTION WHICH KEEPS THE              
 SURFACE SYSTEM AND H850 BAROCLINIC ZONE MUCH FURTHER SOUTH. HPC                
 ALSO FAVORS GFS AND ECMWF SOLUTION. HPC SNOW AMOUNTS BRINGS 4                  
 INCHES TO NEAR THE ILLINOIS BORDER...BUT SOUTHERN WISCONSIN HAS                
 2-3 INCHES AS PER THE GFS QPF WITH A 15 TO 1 RATIO. WITHOUT THE                
 LOWER LEVEL FORCING...ONLY SOME VORTICITY CENTERS AND MID LEVEL                
 FRONTOGENETIC FORCING IS AVAILABLE.                                            
 AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS THAT THE LAKE WILL HAVE MINIMAL                      
 INFLUENCE ON SNOW AMOUNTS. THE INVERSION STAYS BETWEEN 3-5K FEET               
 THROUGH THE CRITICAL PERIOD...AND DELTA-T NEVER EXCEEDS 14                     
 DEGREES. WILL STAY CLOSE TO GFS SOLUTION WITH POPS AND SNOW                    
 AMOUNTS.                                                                       
 MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
 NONE.                                                                          
 $$                                                                             
 &&                                                                             
 .MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                            
 NONE.                                                                          
 &&                                                                             
 $$                                                                             
 99/99                                                                          
</pre> wi                                                                       

 AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR AVIATION DISCUSSION                     
 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR                                        
 1225 AM CST MON JAN 15 2007                                                    
 .AVIATION...                                                                   
 THE COLD AIR WILL MAKE ITS WAY INTO THE STATE FROM THE NORTHWEST               
 TONIGHT. A SURFACE LOW TOOK SHAPE OVER NORTHERN ARKANSAS...AND IT              
 HAS BEEN GAINING STRENGTH AND PULLING THE FRONT INTO THE STATE.                
 RADAR STILL HAS A FULL SCOPE. SOON A WINTRY MIX WILL BE AFFECTING              
 THE NORTHERN TERMINALS...AND ATTEMPTED TO REFLECT THAT FOR HARRISON            
 AND MOUNTAIN HOME. NORTHWEST WINDS SHOULD START TO CEILINGS AND TO             
 IMPROVE VISIBILITIES WHERE SMALL TO NO TEMPERATURE DEW POINT SPREADS           
 WERE PRODUCING VSBYS AT OR BELOW 3 MI. DRIER AIR WILL MOVE IN FOR              
 MONDAY...BUT TEMPERATURES WILL BE PLUMMETING. 32                               
 &&                                                                             
 .PREV DISCUSSION.../ISSUED 949 PM CST SUN JAN 14 2007/                         
 UPDATE...                                                                      
 EASTERN PART OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAS BEEN DISPLACED WESTWARD               
 AS EVIDENCED BY RISING TEMPERATURES AT BOTH NEWPORT AND                        
 BATESVILLE. LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS NOW PLACES THE BOUNDARY                    
 ROUGHLY ALONG AN KELD TO KLIT TO KRAV LINE. DEW POINTS HAVE ALSO               
 SURGED OVER THIS PART OF THE STATE.                                            
 WEAK SURFACE REFLECTION FORMED ON THE FRONT EARLIER THIS EVENING AND           
 IS NOW LOCATED OVER FAR NORTHERN SHARP COUNTY. LOW TAPPED INTO                 
 THIS MOISTURE AND THE RESULT WAS A RETURN TO HEAVY RAIN OVER THE               
 NORTHEAST PART OF THE FORECAST AREA AND ADDITIONAL FLASH FLOOD                 
 WARNINGS. LOCALLY RUN WRF10KM SHOWS THE POSITION OF THE WARM/MOIST             
 SURGE EXCEPTIONALLY WELL.                                                      
 STILL ONE MORE WAVE TO KICK OUT OF CENTRAL TEXAS THIS EVENING                  
 WHICH SHOULD KEEP THE RAIN GOING OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTH AND                
 WILL LEAVE CURRENT FLOOD WATCH AS IS.                                          
 STILL EXPECTING FRONT TO SLIDE BACK TO THE SOUTH OVERNIGHT AS WEAK             
 SURFACE LOW PULLS TO THE NORTHEAST AND COLDER AIR BEGINS TO SURGE              
 BACK IN. LATEST RUC13 AND LOCALLY RUN WRF10KM BOTH SHOW THIS                   
 PROGRESSION AND EXPECT THE BOUNDARY TO BE BACK OVER THE SOUTH BY               
 MORNING.                                                                       
 FARTHER NORTHWEST...IT WILL BE TURNING COLDER...WITH RAIN CHANGING             
 TO LIGHT FREEZING RAIN. IN GENERAL...ICING AMOUNTS WILL REMAIN                 
 UNDER WARNING CRITERIA...AND WENT WITH A FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY                
 FOR AREAS NORTH OF MENA TO DANVILLE TO CLINTON TO SALEM. BASED ON              
 CURRENT TEMPERATURE TREND AND AVAILABLE MOISTURE WHEN THE COLDER               
 AIR ARRIVES...ANY FREEZING PRECIPITATION WILL BE CONFINED TO JUST              
 A FEW HOURS BEFORE SUNRISE.                                                    
 MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST LOOKS GOOD BUT SOME SERIOUS TWEAKING WAS              
 DONE TO TEMPS...DEW POINTS AND WINDS BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS.                  
 UPDATED PRODUCTS OUT SHORTLY.                                                  
 &&                                                                             
 .LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                            
 FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY FOR ARZ003-ARZ004-                    
 ARZ005-ARZ006-ARZ012-ARZ013-ARZ014-ARZ015-ARZ021-ARZ022-ARZ023-                
 ARZ030-ARZ037-ARZ038-ARZ040-ARZ041.                                            
 FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY FOR ARZ016-ARZ024-ARZ025-                  
 ARZ031-ARZ032-ARZ033-ARZ034-ARZ039-ARZ042-ARZ043-ARZ044-ARZ045-                
 ARZ046-ARZ047-ARZ052-ARZ053-ARZ054-ARZ055-ARZ056-ARZ057-ARZ062-                
 ARZ063-ARZ064-ARZ065-ARZ066-ARZ067-ARZ068-ARZ069.                              
 &&                                                                             
 $$                                                                             
</pre> ar                                                                       

 AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                       
 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA                                      
 401 AM EST MON JAN 15 2007                                                     
 .SHORT TERM...                                                                 
 TODAY AND TONIGHT...                                                           
 ...SIGNIFICANT LAKE EFFECT SNOW POSSIBLE TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...                
 NUMEROUS ISSUES IN THE SHORT TERM BEGINNING WITH ONGOING HEADLINES             
 AND ENDING WITH HEAVY LAKE EFFECT SNOW POTENTIAL TONIGHT INTO                  
 TUESDAY.                                                                       
 AS WE HAVE BEEN SAYING FOR DAYS...SURFACE LOW IS TRACKING WELL                 
 NORTHWEST OF WHERE MODELS HAD BEEN INDICATING...CURRENTLY NEAR KBMG            
 IN SOUTH CENTRAL INDIANA AT 07Z. THIS IS FURTHER NORTH THAN EVEN THE           
 NAM-WRF BUT CLOSE TO RUC40. LATEST 3HR PRESSURE FALLS ARE CENTERED             
 ACROSS NORTHEAST INDIANA AND INTO NORTHWEST OHIO...INDICATING LOW              
 WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK NORTHEAST. SINCE WE HAVE BEEN EXPECTING                 
 THIS...CURRENT GRIDS ARE IN RELATIVELY GOOD SHAPE.                             
 SURFACE TEMPERATURES HOVERING NEAR 30 ACROSS FAR NORTH WHERE WARNING           
 IS IN PLACE...RIGHT AROUND 32 IN ADVISORY AREA...AND 33 TO 35 IN               
 SOUTH WITH MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN. EXPECT TEMPS TO RISE MAYBE A                
 DEGREE IN THE NORTH THIS MORNING BUT SEVERAL DEGREES IN THE                    
 SOUTHEAST AS SURFACE LOW TRACKS TO NEAR KAOH AND WARM AIR SURGES               
 NORTH. RUC40 HAS A GOOD HANDLE ON SURFACE LOW AND TEMPS SO USED THIS           
 ALONG WITH ETA12 FOR TEMPS TODAY. PLAN ON LEAVING HEADLINES AS IS              
 WITH INITIAL ISSUANCE GIVEN WIDESPREAD RAIN AND FREEZING RAIN STILL            
 ACROSS ENTIRE AREA. EXPECT PCPN TO DIMINISH IN WEST SHORTLY WITH               
 DECREASING TREND ACROSS CWA THIS MORNING. COLDER AIR ALREADY MAKING            
 A MOVE WITH SURFACE OBS IN WESTERN MICHIGAN SHOWING FALLING TEMPS              
 AND NORTH WINDS. EXPECT RESIDUAL DRIZZLE OR FREEZING DRIZZLE LATER             
 IN THE MORNING THEN LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES THIS AFTERNOON. NOT GOING           
 TO GET THAT DETAILED WITH GRIDS. WILL TRANSITION FROM CURRENT RAIN             
 TO LIGHT SNOW CHANCES THIS AFTERNOON. HAVE ISSUED SEVERAL FLOOD                
 WARNINGS FOR RIVERS EARLY THIS MORNING. WILL HOLD ONTO FLOOD WATCH             
 UNTIL RAIN ENDS.                                                               
 FOCUS THEN SHIFTS TO LAKE EFFECT POTENTIAL TONIGHT AND INTO TUESDAY.           
 AS SURFACE LOW MOVES EAST...ARCTIC AIR PLUNGES INTO FORECAST AREA              
 WITH 850MB TEMPS DROPPING TO -12 TO -14C TONIGHT AND TO NEAR -16C ON           
 TUESDAY. THIS COUPLED WITH WARM LAKE TEMPERATURES AROUND 5C YIELDS             
 DELTA T VALUES AROUND 20C. THIS EXTREME INSTABILITY WILL BE COUPLED            
 WITH HIGH LAKE INDUCED EQUILIBRIUM LEVELS AROUND 10K FEET AND LAKE             
 INDUCED CAPE NEARING 600 J/KG TUE MORNING. SYNOPTIC SETUP REMAINS              
 FAVORABLE WITH SURFACE LOW TO THE EAST AND ARCTIC HIGH IN THE PLAINS           
 CREATING A NEARLY NORTHERLY CYCLONIC FETCH DOWN LENGTH OF LAKE                 
 MICHIGAN. THIS USUALLY ALLOWS PRECONDITIONING FROM LAKE SUPERIOR AS            
 WELL. NAM-WRF AND EVEN GFS CONTINUE TO PICK UP ON THESE FEATURES AND           
 GENERATE STRONG 925-850MB OMEGA FROM 00Z TUE THROUGH 18Z TUE. THE              
 NEGATIVE FACTOR REMAINS THE WIND SHEAR NEAR THE TOP OF THE MIXED               
 LAYER...AS NOTED BY PREVIOUS DAY SHIFT. 700MB WIND COMPONENT STILL             
 REMAINS MORE WESTERLY THAN LOWER LEVELS. ALSO A BIT CONCERNED FOR              
 UPSTREAM SHORT WAVE THAT DROPS SOUTH LATE TONIGHT. THESE WAVES HAVE            
 BEEN KNOWN TO DISRUPT BANDS AND LIMIT HEAVY ACCUMULATIONS. AFTER               
 WEIGHING ALL THE PROS AND CONS...FEEL ENOUGH ELEMENTS IN PLACE TO              
 WARRANT A LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH FOR TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. GIVEN THE            
 NAM-WRF PLUME ANALYSIS SHOWING POTENTIAL WAVY BAND AND TO ACCOUNT              
 FOR MODELS WESTWARD BIAS...HAVE MADE THE WATCH AREA FAIRLY                     
 LARGE...ENCOMPASSING WESTERN AREAS FOR POTENTIAL SINGLE BAND DOWN              
 THE LENGTH OF LAKE...BUT ALSO ADDING CASS...ELKHART AND KOSCIUSKO              
 GIVEN PLUME ANALYSIS OF 925-850MB OMEGA FIELDS AND MODEL BIAS. WILL            
 HIT POTENTIAL FOR 6 TO 10 INCHES WITH THIS EVENT GIVEN THE MOVEMENT            
 OF SINGLE BAND. HOWEVER...IF THIS TYPE I BAND IS REALIZED AND                  
 BECOMES STATIONARY FOR A PERIOD OF TIME...LOCALLY HEAVIER AMOUNTS              
 WILL BE POSSIBLE.                                                              
 &&                                                                             
 .LONG TERM...                                                                  
 TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOULD BE                      
 DIMINISHING TUESDAY NIGHT AS INVERSION HEIGHTS FALL AND AS WINDS               
 BACK TO THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST. THE GFS CONTINUES TO RETREAT ON THE            
 VERY COLD AIR ADVERTISED DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK ON SEVERAL              
 PREVIOUS RUNS. HIGHS WEDNESDAY WERE IN THE LOWER 20S ON PREVIOUS MEX           
 MOS...BUT NOW IN THE MID 30S. CAN NOT SEEM TO GET ANY COLD IN HERE             
 AS THE LAST DAY BELOW NORMAL WAS DECEMBER 9. NEXT UPPER TROF WILL              
 DROP RAPIDLY SOUTH LATE THIS WEEK OVER THE WEST CONUS AS THE                   
 DOWNSTREAM TROF OVER THE MIDWEST MOVES RAPIDLY EAST. HAVE RAISED               
 HIGH AND LOWS TEMPS SOME TO ACCOMMODATE THIS PATTERN. THE NEXT                 
 CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION WILL ARRIVE LATE IN THE WEEK AS THIS NEXT             
 SYSTEM MOVES EAST INTO THE FORECAST AREA. THE GFS AND ECMWF WERE               
 BRINGING COLDER AIR IN FRIDAY...WITH 850 MB TEMP DROPPING TO -20C BY           
 LATE IN THE DAY. LAKE EFFECT SNOW IN ONGOING GRIDS/ZFP LOOKS GOOD. ONCE        
 AGAIN...THIS TROF SHOULD LIFT EAST AS ANOTHER DEEP TROF DIGS OVER              
 THE WESTERN CONUS. THE ECMWF WAS EVEN INDICATING SOME NEGATIVE TILT            
 WITH THIS TROF...BUT THE MAIN WEATHER INDICATION FOR THE FORECAST              
 AREA WILL BE LAKE EFFECT ENDING LATE SATURDAY WITH TEMPERATURES                
 RETURNING TO NORMAL BY SUNDAY. NEW CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEMBERS SUPPORT           
 THIS PATTERN WITH A BROAD TROF OVER THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES.                 
 &&                                                                             
 .AVIATION...                                                                   
 WIDESPREAD RAIN AND FREEZING RAIN ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. KFWA                
 HOVERING JUST ABOVE FREEZING AND KSBN RIGHT AT FREEZING. PREDOMINATE           
 FREEZING RAIN EXPECTED AT KSBN REST OF NIGHT WHILE FORT WAYNE LIKELY           
 TO BE MAINLY RAIN BUT FREEZING AT TIMES WITH TEMPERATURE WAVERING              
 BETWEEN 32 AND 33. LARGE RAIN SHIELD EXTENDS BACK INTO IL SO EXPECT            
 THIS TO CONTINUE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. DRY SLOT WORKS IN AFTER                   
 DAYBREAK BUT ENOUGH LOW LEVEL RESIDUAL MOISTURE TO SUPPORT FREEZING            
 DRIZZLE OR FLURRIES WITH VIS RESTRICTIONS DUE TO BR. LAKE EFFECT               
 SNOW BAND EXPECTED TO SET UP LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING.           
 HAVE ONLY TAKEN SBN VIS DOWN TO 3SM -SN FOR NOW GIVEN UNCERTAINTY OF           
 WHERE BAND WILL BE. VERY LIKELY MUCH LOWER RESTRICTIONS AND POSSIBLE           
 HEAVY SNOW WILL BE NEEDED FROM BETWEEN 03Z AND 12Z TUE. MORE                   
 REFINEMENT IN LATER ISSUANCES.                                                 
 &&                                                                             
 .IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                            
 IN...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR INZ020-INZ022-              
      INZ023-INZ024-INZ025-INZ026-INZ027-INZ032-INZ033-INZ034.                  
      FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST /11 AM CST/ TODAY FOR               
      INZ008-INZ009-INZ012-INZ013-INZ014-INZ015-INZ016-INZ017-                  
      INZ018.                                                                   
      ICE STORM WARNING UNTIL NOON EST /11 AM CST/ TODAY FOR INZ003-            
      INZ004-INZ005-INZ006-INZ007.                                              
      LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY                  
      AFTERNOON FOR INZ003-INZ004-INZ005-INZ012-INZ014-INZ016.                  
 MI...ICE STORM WARNING UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR MIZ077-MIZ078-MIZ079-          
      MIZ080-MIZ081.                                                            
      LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY                  
      AFTERNOON FOR MIZ077-MIZ078.                                              
 OH...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR OHZ016-OHZ024-              
      OHZ025.                                                                   
      FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR OHZ004-OHZ005-            
      OHZ015.                                                                   
      ICE STORM WARNING UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR OHZ001-OHZ002.                 
 LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EST TUESDAY FOR LMZ043-LMZ046.            
 &&                                                                             
 $$                                                                             
 SHORT TERM/AVIATION...LASHLEY                                                  
 LONG TERM...SKIPPER                                                            
</pre> in                                                                       

 AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                       
 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA                                      
 1245 AM EST MON JAN 15 2007                                                    
 .AVIATION...                                                                   
 WIDESPREAD RAIN AND FREEZING RAIN ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. KFWA                
 HOVERING JUST ABOVE FREEZING AND KSBN RIGHT AT FREEZING. PREDOMINATE           
 FREEZING RAIN EXPECTED AT KSBN REST OF NIGHT WHILE FORT WAYNE LIKELY           
 TO BE MAINLY RAIN BUT FREEZING AT TIMES WITH TEMPERATURE WAVERING              
 BETWEEN 32 AND 33. LARGE RAIN SHIELD EXTENDS BACK INTO IL SO EXPECT            
 THIS TO CONTINUE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. DRY SLOT WORKS IN AFTER                   
 DAYBREAK BUT ENOUGH LOW LEVEL RESIDUAL MOISTURE TO SUPPORT FREEZING            
 DRIZZLE OR FLURRIES WITH VIS RESTRICTIONS DUE TO BR. LAKE EFFECT               
 SNOW BAND EXPECTED TO SET UP LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING.           
 HAVE ONLY TAKEN SBN VIS DOWN TO 3SM -SN FOR NOW GIVEN UNCERTAINTY OF           
 WHERE BAND WILL BE. VERY LIKELY MUCH LOWER RESTRICTIONS AND POSSIBLE           
 HEAVY SNOW WILL BE NEEDED FROM BETWEEN 03Z AND 12Z TUE. MORE                   
 REFINEMENT IN LATER ISSUANCES.                                                 
 &&                                                                             
 .UPDATE...                                                                     
 GETTING 1/8" GLAZING REPORTS ON TREES JUST NORTH OF SOUTH BEND LATE            
 THIS EVE. BASED ON SFC OBS EXPECT SIMILAR CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT THE            
 ADVISORY AREA WITH THE PSBL EXCEPTION OF URBAN AREAS OF SOUTH                  
 BEND/ELKHART DECIDED TO UPGRADE FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY TO AN ICE               
 STORM WARNING. ALSO GETTING SCT REPORTS OF ICING FARTHER SOUTH AND             
 WITH DFI TEMP AT 32 LAST SEVERAL HOURS AND FWA TEMP/DWPT FALLING               
 SLOWLY, WILL ISSUE FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY AREA SOUTH OF ICE STORM              
 WARNING A COUPLE TIERS OF COUNTIES. EXPECT ICING IN THIS AREA WILL             
 MAINLY BE ON ELEVATED SURFACES, BUT STILL COULD BE SUFFICIENT TO               
 CAUSE SOME PROBLEMS.                                                           
 &&                                                                             
 .PREV DISCUSSION...                                                            
 PREVIOUS UPDATE...                                                             
 EVE RAOB/TAMDAR SOUNDINGS SHOWING WARM LAYER OF GENERALLY +2 TO +6C            
 OVER OUR AREA RESULTING IN INITIAL PRECIP REACHING THE GROUND AS               
 RN/ZR. SFC OBS AND CALLS TO POLICE IN THE AREA INDICATE SO FAR ONLY            
 PATCHY REPORTS OF GLAZING IN NRN INDIANA AND NW OH EVEN THOUGH SOME            
 ASOS/AWOS SITES REPORTING TEMPS AT FREEZING. THIS PRBLY A RESULT OF            
 TEMPERATURE OF HEAVY RAINFALL GENERALLY REACHING THE GROUND ABOVE              
 FREEZING. IN MICHIGAN WHERE SFC TEMPS HAVE BEEN RUNNING A DEGREE OR            
 TWO BELOW FREEZING ALL DAY AND THIS EVE, MORE WIDESPREAD GLAZING IS            
 BEING REPORTED. WITH WAA OVERNIGHT AS SFC LOW MOVES NE FROM SRN MO             
 TO WEST CENTRAL OH, THE RN/SN LINE, WHICH IS EXPECTED TO SETUP FROM            
 JUST NORTH OF CHICAGO TO JUST NORTH OF DETROIT THIS EVE, WILL PRBLY            
 SHIFT SLIGHTLY NORTH. THUS, AS IN GOING FCST STILL EXPECTING A                 
 MAINLY LIQUID EVENT WITH MAIN THREAT FOR ICE ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS              
 OUR NRN COUNTIES. MAIN QUESTIONS ARE HOW MUCH OF THE HEAVY RAIN WILL           
 ACCUMULATE AS ICE IN THE ADVISORY AREAS AND IF SFC TEMPS WILL FALL             
 SUFFICIENTLY SOUTH OF THE ADVISORY AREA TO WARRANT EXPANSION. FOR              
 NOW FEEL THINGS ARE ON TRACK AND WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR BUT NO               
 CHANGES TO HEADLINES OR FCSTS PLANNED THIS EVE.                                
 SHORT TERM...                                                                  
 TONIGHT AND MONDAY.                                                            
 ...SIGNIFICANT ICING EXPECTED ACROSS SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN TONIGHT           
 INTO MONDAY MORNING...                                                         
 ...SOME ICING EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHERN INDIANA AND NORTHWEST OHIO              
 TONIGHT AND MONDAY...                                                          
 12Z NAM-WRF AND 12Z GFS CONTINUE TO TREND NEXT WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE            
 FARTHER NORTHWEST.  THE NAM-WRF IS THE FARTHEST NORTHWEST OF THE               
 TWO...PLACING THE WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE OVER NW OHIO BY 12Z MONDAY.             
 BASED ON THE TREND OF BRINGING THE LOW FARTHER NORTHWEST...FEEL MORE           
 INCLINED TO SIDE WITH THE NAM-WRF AND THUS WILL USE ITS SOLUTION AS            
 A BACKBONE TO THE SHORT TERM FORECAST.  ITS WARMER THERMAL PROFILE             
 WILL RESULT IN MOSTLY FREEZING RAIN TONIGHT ACRS THE NRN CWFA.                 
 AT 20Z...LOW PRESSURE WAS DEVELOPING ALONG A STATIONARY FRONT OVER             
 NW ARKANSAS.  AS A STRONG S/WV AND JET PIVOT NORTHEAST INTO THE                
 CNTRL PLAINS TONIGHT AND THEN INTO THE WRN GREAT LAKES ON                      
 MONDAY...THE LOW WILL MOVE NORTHEAST AND DEEPEN WITH TIME...BEING              
 LOCATED NEAR SW INDIANA AT 06Z MONDAY AND NEAR NW OHIO BY 12Z MONDAY.          
 THE LOW WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH STRONG...MOIST LOW LVL WARM                    
 ADVECTION.  THIS STRONG ASCENT WILL TEAM UP WITH UPR LVL DIVERGENCE            
 FROM A STRONG JET ALOFT.  THIS WILL RESULT IN WIDESPREAD PCPN ACRS             
 THE CWFA OVERNIGHT.  IN FACT...LATEST MOSAIC RADAR WAS SHOWING A               
 LARGE AREA OF PCPN BLOSSOMING ACRS THE CNTRL AND SRN PLAINS.  THIS             
 PCPN WILL CONTINUE TO EXPAND AND MOVE NE INTO THE REGION TONIGHT.              
 THERE IS A LOT TO BE CONCERNED ABOUT OVERNIGHT INTO THE FIRST PART             
 OF MONDAY AS COLD AIR REMAINS TRAPPED NEAR THE SFC ACRS THE FAR NRN            
 CWFA.  LATEST OBSERVATIONS SHOW TEMPS HOVERING BETWEEN 30 AND 33               
 DEGREES ACRS FAR NRN INDIANA...SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN AND FAR                 
 NORTHWEST OHIO.  THESE TEMPS WILL NOT BUDGE MUCH OVERNIGHT...AND MAY           
 SLIGHTLY DROP A DEGREE OR TWO.  FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE                       
 REGION...TEMPS WILL REMAIN STEADY STATE IN THE LOWER TO MID                    
 30S...EXPECT FOR THE FAR SOUTHEAST WHERE WARMER AIR WILL BE PULLED             
 WESTWARD AS THE LOW APPROACHES.   WITH ABOUT THREE QUARTERS TO                 
 AROUND ONE INCH OF QPF EXPECTED OVERNIGHT...SIGNIFICANT ICING WILL             
 OCCUR ACRS THE MICHIGAN COUNTIES WHERE ABOUT A HALF INCH OF ICE                
 ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED.  FOR THE FAR NRN INDIANA AND NORTHWEST               
 OHIO COUNTIES...ICE ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE LESS THAN A QUARTER INCH.            
 FARTHER SOUTH...MAINLY RAIN IS EXPECTED.  AN ICE STORM WARNING WILL            
 BE ISSUED FOR THE MICHIGAN COUNTIES UNTIL 17Z MONDAY...WHILE A                 
 FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED FOR THE FAR NRN INDIANA/NW               
 OHIO COUNTIES THROUGH 17Z MONDAY. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL ACRS THE FAR             
 SOUTH/SOUTHEAST WILL LIKELY LEAD TO RIVER FLOODING ALONG THE UPPER             
 WABASH AND MAUMEE RIVER BASINS..SO WILL MAINTAIN FLOOD WATCH FOR               
 THIS LOCATION THROUGH 18Z MONDAY.                                              
 ON MONDAY...AS SFC LOW PRESSURE PULLS AWAY TO THE NE...COLDER AIR              
 WILL BEGIN TO FILTER SE INTO THE FCST AREA.  THERE WILL LIKELY BE              
 FREEZING PCPN ACRS THE NW HALF OF THE CWFA...BUT THIS SHOULD BE ON             
 THE LIGHT SIDE.  FOR THE SOUTHEAST...LIGHT RAIN IS EXPECTED.  MODELS           
 CONTINUE TO SHOW A DRY SLOT WORKING INTO THE REGION BY MID MORNING.            
 THIS MAY CHC PCPN TO DRIZZLE OR FREEZING DRIZZLE.  HAVE OPTED TO GO            
 WITH THE LIGHT FREEZING RAIN/LIGHT RAIN WORDING DUE TO LINGER PCPN             
 EARLY IN THE MORNING IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE LOW AND FOR THE FACT              
 THAT SOME OF THE DRIZZLE MAY MEASURE.  AS COLDER AIR AND DEEPER                
 ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE FILTER INTO THE REGION DURING THE                         
 AFTERNOON...ANY DRIZZLE WILL CHANGEOVER TO SOME LIGHT SNOW.  MAIN              
 LAKE EFFECT EVENT LOOKS TO HOLD OFF UNTIL MONDAY NIGHT AND WILL                
 LEAVE THOSE DETAILS TO THE LONG TERM FORECASTER.                               
 LONG TERM...                                                                   
 MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY                                                    
 ...SIGNIFICANT LAKE EFFECT SNOW POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH                  
 TUESDAY...                                                                     
 MAIN CONCERN FOR THE LONG TERM TODAY REVOLVES AROUND LAKE EFFECT               
 POTENTIAL AT THE START OF THE PERIOD. MODERATE LOW/MID LEVEL CAA               
 FOLLOWING MAJOR FRONTAL WAVE ON MON WILL BRING MUCH COLDER AIR                 
 ACROSS THE LAKE WITH AMPLE LAKE INSTABILITY DEVELOPING. NEAR RECORD            
 WARM LAKE TEMPERATURE OF AROUND 5C PER LATEST SATELLITE DERIVED DATA           
 WILL CONTRIBUTE TO MODERATE COLLIER INDEX WITH LAKE INDUCED CAPE               
 AROUND 500J/KG AND LAKE INDUCED EQUILIBRIUM LEVELS AROUND 10K FEET.            
 INSTABILITY IS CERTAINLY MORE THAN AMPLE...HOWEVER MUCH UNCERTAINTY            
 LIES WITH BAND MODE...PLACEMENT...AND AMOUNT OF SHEAR. FROM A                  
 PATTERN RECOGNITION PROSPECTIVE...SETUP LOOKS VERY FAVORABLE WITH A            
 1040+MB HIGH BUILDING SOUTH THROUGH THE PLAINS AND FAVORABLE N/NNW             
 FLOW DEVELOPING DOWN A SUBSTANTIAL FETCH OF LAKE MICHIGAN. A                   
 POTENTIAL NEGATIVE...BOTH NAM/GFS SUGGEST THERE WILL BE SOME SHEAR             
 NEAR THE TOP OF THE LAKE INDUCED MIXED LAYER WITH A MORE WESTERLY              
 COMPONENT AT 700MB AND MORE NW/NNW AT 850MB. NAM-WRF PLUME ANALYSIS            
 CONTINUES TO SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR A TYPE I LAKE EFFECT                    
 BAND...MEANING A DOMINANT BAND PARALLEL TO THE MAJOR AXIS OF THE               
 LAKE.                                                                          
 NAM-WRF HAS BEEN FLIP-FLOPPING WILDLY FROM RUN TO RUN WITH RESPECT             
 TO DIRECTION OF LOW LEVEL FLOW...WITH 00Z AND 06Z RUNS SUGGESTING A            
 NEAR DUE NORTH FETCH...WHILE 12Z RUN SUGGESTS MORE NW FETCH. A LOOK            
 AT SOME OTHER MESOSCALE GUIDANCE SUCH AS THE FSL EXPERIMENTAL RUC              
 AND THE CANADIAN GEM SHOW MORE UNCERTAINTY...WITH BOTH THOSE MODELS            
 DEPICTING MORE NORTHERLY FLOW AND A MORE WESTWARD BAND PLACEMENT.              
 TYPICAL BIAS OF MESOSCALE MODELS ARE TO BE TOO FAR WEST WITH A                 
 DOMINANT BAND AT THE SOUTHERN END OF LAKE MICHIGAN. WITH THE VERY              
 POOR MODEL AGREEMENT AND CONSISTENCY...JUST NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE              
 ON BAND PLACEMENT OR MODE TO GO WITH AN LES WATCH YET. STILL ENOUGH            
 TIME FOR A SHORTER RANGE WATCH FROM THE MIDNIGHT SHIFT IF MODEL                
 GUIDANCE STARTS TO CONVERGE ON A COMMON SOLUTION. THIS DOES HAVE THE           
 POTENTIAL TO BE A MAJOR EVENT GIVEN STRONG THERMODYNAMICS...BUT ONLY           
 IF A DOMINANT BAND FORMS...AND THAT IS STILL QUITE UNCERTAIN.                  
 CP SURFACE HIGH BUILDS ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY LATER TUE NGT INTO WED           
 WITH CRASHING INVERSION HEIGHTS AND BACKING LOW LEVEL FLOW CUTTING             
 OFF ANY REMAINING LAKE EFFECT. SHOULD SEE A DRY PERIOD FOR WED AND             
 THU WITH A MODERATING TREND AS HEIGHTS RISE IN RESPONSE TO DIGGING             
 UPSTREAM TROUGH. VERY LITTLE CHANGE MADE TO CONTINUITY IN THE LATER            
 PERIODS WITH PRIMARY CONCERNS IN SHORT TERM HIGH IMPACT WEATHER.               
 STILL APPEARS THAT ONE OR SEVERAL CLIPPER TYPE SHORTWAVES WILL CROSS           
 THE GREAT LAKES STARTING AT THE END OF THE WEEK AND HAVE CONTINUED             
 WITH LOW CHANCE POPS...MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE               
 CWA. TEMPS WILL AVERAGE AROUND NORMAL FOR MUCH OF THE LONG TERM...             
 BUT THIS WILL FEEL COLD AFTER THE INCREDIBLE STRETCH OF WARM WEATHER           
 THE PAST MONTH.                                                                
 &&                                                                             
 .IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                            
 IN...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON FOR INZ020-INZ022-INZ023-            
      INZ024-INZ025-INZ026-INZ027-INZ032-INZ033-INZ034.                         
      FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 12 PM EST /11 AM CST/ MONDAY FOR             
      INZ008-INZ009-INZ012-INZ013-INZ014-INZ015-INZ016-INZ017-                  
      INZ018.                                                                   
      ICE STORM WARNING UNTIL 12 PM EST /11 AM CST/ MONDAY FOR INZ003-          
      INZ004-INZ005-INZ006-INZ007.                                              
 MI...ICE STORM WARNING UNTIL 12 PM EST MONDAY FOR MIZ077-MIZ078-               
      MIZ079-MIZ080-MIZ081.                                                     
 OH...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON FOR OHZ016-OHZ024-OHZ025.            
      FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 12 PM EST MONDAY FOR OHZ004-OHZ005-          
      OHZ015.                                                                   
      ICE STORM WARNING UNTIL 12 PM EST MONDAY FOR OHZ001-OHZ002.               
 LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EST TUESDAY FOR LMZ043-LMZ046.            
 $$                                                                             
 AVIATION/UPDATE...LASHLEY/TAYLOR                                               
 SHORT TERM...HICKMAN                                                           
 LONG TERM....HITCHCOCK                                                         
</pre> in                                                                       

 AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                       
 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI                                    
 442 AM EST MON JAN 15 2007                                                     
 .SHORT TERM...TODAY                                                            
 THE 09Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A 1009MB LOW NEAR INDIANAPOLIS...               
 WHICH IS ASSOCIATED WITH A MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE OVER THE MID                   
 MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THIS WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW            
 IN ADVANCE OF THE LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL               
 PLAINS. MID LEVEL FRONTAL FORCING WITHIN THE ENTRANCE REGION OF A              
 170KT UPPER LEVEL JET OVER SOUTHERN QUEBEC HAS PROVIDED WIDESPREAD             
 PRECIPITATION ACROSS SOUTHERN MICHIGAN OVERNIGHT. LOW LEVEL                    
 SOUTHERLY FLOW HAS ADVECTED A SIGNIFICANT ENOUGH WEDGE OF WARM AIR             
 ALOFT TO ALLOW MOST OF THE PRECIP ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE I 69                  
 CORRIDOR TO FALL AS FREEZING RAIN...WITH SNOW AND SLEET MAINLY                 
 CONFINED TO THE SAGINAW VALLEY AND NORTHERN THUMB.                             
 SURFACE OBSERVATIONS ACROSS SE MI SHOW THE FREEZING LINE EXTENDING             
 ALONG AND NORTH OF A DETROIT TO ADRIAN LINE. IT APPEARS FROM THE               
 SURFACE OBSERVATIONS THAT THE LACK OF LOW LEVEL COLD AIR ADVECTION             
 HAS NOT BEEN ABLE TO OVERCOME THE LATENT HEAT RELEASE DUE TO                   
 FREEZING NEAR THE SURFACE. THUS TEMPS HAVE INCREASED A COUPLE                  
 DEGREES OVER THE LAST TWO HOURS. IN FACT...MOST OF WAYNE AND MONROE            
 COUNTIES ARE NOW ABOVE FREEZING. THE LATEST AREA RADAR DATA SHOWS              
 THE BACK EDGE OF THE PRECIP NOW MOVING INTO SW LOWER MI...SUPPORTING           
 THE FASTER GFS AND RUC SOLUTIONS. BASED ON MODEL SOUNDINGS...PRECIP            
 SHOULD TRANSITION TO FREEZING DRIZZLE BETWEEN 12Z AND 15Z AS                   
 MOISTURE ABOVE -10 C IS STRIPPED AWAY. THE NAM HOWEVER SHOWS SOME              
 LINGERING FRONTOGENESIS IN THE 700-600MB LAYER ACROSS THE NORTHERN             
 HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH 15Z WHICH CAN NOT BE RULED OUT               
 GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE UPPER JET.                                           
 WITH THE EXCEPTION OF WAYNE AND MONROE COUNTIES...WILL KEEP THE                
 WARNINGS GOING THROUGH THE REST OF THE MORNING. WARNINGS MAY BE ABLE           
 TO BE DOWNGRADED TO FREEZING DRIZZLE ADVISORIES LATE THIS MORNING.             
 HAVE RECEIVED SEVERAL REPORTS OF QUARTER TO HALF INCH ICE                      
 ACCUMULATIONS. WITH SURFACE TEMPS HOVERING IN THE LOWER 30S...THE              
 MOST SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS HAVE BEEN ON ELEVATED SURFACES LIKE             
 TREES AND POWER LINES. THE MAIN UPDATE TO THE HEADLINES THIS MORNING           
 WAS TO ADJUST FOR MORE FREEZING RAIN FROM FNT TO PHN AS A LITTLE               
 MORE WARM AIR ALOFT ADVECTED INTO THE FORECAST AREA THAN EARLIER               
 MODELS SUGGESTED. THE ONLY OTHER MAJOR ADJUSTMENTS WAS TO DOWNGRADE            
 MONROE AND WAYNE COUNTIES TO AN ADVISORY WITH CURRENT TEMPS NOW                
 ABOVE FREEZING AT DTW/DET/TTF/DUH. CURRENT TRENDS ALSO SUPPORT A               
 LITTLE LOWER SNOWFALL TOTALS ACROSS THE SAGINAW VALLEY AND THUMB               
 REGION.                                                                        
 LOW LEVEL COLD AIR ADVECTION AND DEEPER MOISTURE WILL WRAP BACK INTO           
 THE AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON...TRANSITIONING ANY LINGERING DRIZZLE             
 TO LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS. WINDS WILL INCREASE TO THE 10 TO 20 MPH RANGE           
 BY THIS AFTERNOON...MAINLY NORTH OF M 59...WHICH MAY CAUSE SOME                
 ADDITIONAL PROBLEMS WITH TREES AND POWER LINES WEIGHTED DOWN WITH              
 ICE.                                                                           
 &&                                                                             
 .LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY                                       
 BY MONDAY NIGHT THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT BROUGHT A WINTER STORM            
 TO LOWER MICHIGAN WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE NEW ENGLAND                        
 STATES...WITH A THERMAL TROUGH EXTENDING BACK ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES           
 REGION. THE NAM SEEMS TO HAVE A BETTER HANDLE ON SHORTWAVE ENERGY              
 DROPPING SOUTH OUT OF CANADA BASED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND                  
 REINFORCES THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE REGION. A NUMBER OF                 
 SHORTWAVES WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. LIGHT             
 SNOW WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING ON MONDAY BEFORE SNOW SHOWERS              
 BECOME PRIMARILY DRIVEN BY LAKE EFFECT AND DECREASE IN COVERAGE                
 OVERNIGHT. THE NAM12 DOES INDICATE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE OVER THE              
 THUMB...SHIFTING OFFSHORE BY LATE AT NIGHT. GIVEN THE SHIFTING                 
 TRAJECTORY FOR LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS ...WILL KEEP ACCUMULATIONS ON THE           
 LOW SIDE IN THE 1-3 INCH RANGE.                                                
 ON TUESDAY A WEAK 850MB TROUGH COMBINED WITH CONTINUED CYCLONIC FLOW           
 AT THE SURFACE SHOULD YIELD NUMEROUS SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA.             
 THE SHOWERY NATURE OF THE SNOW WILL MAKE ACCUMULATIONS VARY                    
 WIDELY...BUT WILL EXPECT ACCUMULATIONS TO GENERALLY REMAIN AROUND AN           
 INCH OR LESS. INSTABILITY WILL PEAK TUESDAY EVENING AS THE UPPER               
 LEVEL COLD POOL MOVES SOUTH OVER THE AREA. MODEL SOUNDINGS OVER                
 SOUTHERN LAKE HURON INDICATE 850 J/KG OF LAKE INDUCED CAPE AND                 
 EQUILIBRIUM LEVELS OVER 14000 FEET. WILL EXPECT ANOTHER ROUND OF               
 SNOW SHOWERS AS THE 700MB TROUGH AXIS PASSES AND WILL CONTINUE TO              
 CARRY SOME ADDITIONAL LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS OVER THE THUMB INTO THE              
 OVERNIGHT HOURS.                                                               
 SKIES WILL START TO SCATTER OUT LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE            
 BUILDS FROM THE SOUTHWEST. WILL GO SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW GUIDANCE              
 OVER OUR SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES THAT ARE CLOSER TO THE SURFACE HIGH.            
 THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY WITH WARM              
 AIR ADVECTION BEGINNING AS SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW INCREASES ON THE WEST            
 SIDE OF THE SURFACE HIGH. MODELS ADVERTISE THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL                
 TROUGH TO QUICKLY APPROACH BY THE END OF THE WEEK WITH A NUMBER OF             
 WAVES MOVING OVER THE REGION IN THE THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY TIME                 
 FRAME. THIS WILL BRING THE NEXT CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW AND ANOTHER               
 COLD FRONT TO REINFORCE THE COLD AIR OVER THE REGION.                          
 &&                                                                             
 .PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 1255 AM EST MON JAN 15 2007                          
 AVIATION...                                                                    
 PRECIPITATION HAD SPREAD OVER MOST OF SE MICHIGAN AT PRESS TIME,               
 AND ALL TERMINAL SITES. OBSERVATIONS, ESPECIALLY RADAR DATA, SHOW              
 THE AMOUNT AND DURATION WILL HAVE CONSIDERABLY GREATER IMPACTS ON              
 AVIATION THAN WHAT OCCURRED ON SUNDAY. THE DOMINANT PRECIPITATION              
 TYPE WILL BE FREEZING RAIN AT DTW/DET, SLEET AND SNOW AT FNT, AND              
 SNOW AT MBS. THE 06Z-14Z WINDOW STILL LOOKS GOOD FOR THE HEAVIEST              
 PRECIPITATION AT ALL TERMINALS, PUNCTUATED BY IFR CEILING AND                  
 VISIBILITY.                                                                    
 SOME LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE WILL OCCUR DURING THE LATE MORNING AND             
 EARLY AFTERNOON AS DRY AIR MOVES IN THROUGH THE MID LEVELS AND AS              
 THE SYSTEM DEPARTS OUR AREA. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY VISIBILITY               
 AND CEILING CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO VFR AND MVFR RESPECTIVELY BY               
 SUNSET MONDAY EVENING CONTINUING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.                         
 &&                                                                             
 .DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                            
 MI...ICE STORM WARNING...MIZ061-MIZ062-MIZ063-MIZ068-MIZ069-MIZ070-            
      MIZ075-MIZ082 UNTIL NOON MONDAY.                                          
      HEAVY SNOW WARNING...MIZ047-MIZ048-MIZ049-MIZ053-MIZ054 UNTIL             
      NOON MONDAY.                                                              
      WINTER STORM WARNING...MIZ055-MIZ060 UNTIL NOON MONDAY.                   
      FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY...MIZ076-MIZ083 UNTIL NOON MONDAY.                 
 LAKE HURON...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...INNER SAGINAW BAY UNTIL 7 PM               
      TUESDAY.                                                                  
      SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...OUTER SAGINAW BAY AND NEARSHORE WATERS             
      FROM PORT AUSTIN TO PORT HURON UNTIL 7 AM WEDNESDAY.                      
 LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.                                                          
 MI WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...UNTIL 5 PM MONDAY.             
 &&                                                                             
 $$                                                                             
 SHORT TERM...CONSIDINE                                                         
 LONG TERM....KAHL                                                              
 AVIATION...BT                                                                  
 YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE           
 AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).                                   
</pre> mi                                                                       

 AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                       
 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                          
 330 AM EST MON JAN 15 2007                                                     
 .DISCUSSION...                                                                 
 TAKING A LOOK AT THE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY THIS MORNING...THE BULK OF            
 MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTHWEST HAS BEGUN TO INVADE THE UPPER                      
 PENINSULA.  THE CENTER OF THE SURFACE LOW WAS LOCATED ACROSS                   
 SOUTHERN INDIANA...AS WAS CONTINUING TO TRACK NORTHEASTWARD.                   
 COMPARING THIS POSITION TO THE MODEL GUIDANCE OF 24 HOURS AGO...IT             
 LOOKS LIKE THE NAM HAD A BETTER HANDLE ON ITS POSITION THAN THE                
 FURTHER EASTWARD GFS.  EVEN BETTER THOUGH WAS PROBABLY THE CANADIAN            
 MODEL WHICH HAD ITS 12Z MON POSITION ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN OHIO.  IN             
 GENERAL...THE CANADIAN MODEL SEEMS TO BE DOING BETTER THAN MANY OF             
 THE OTHER MODELS CURRENTLY...AND THROUGH MUCH OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.          
 ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE NATION...HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATED MUCH           
 OF THE AREA.  THIS WAS RESULTING IN A LACK OF PRECIPITATION WEST OF            
 A LINE FROM NORTHERN MINNESOTA THROUGH NEBRASKA AND INTO WESTERN               
 TEXAS.  HOWEVER...EAST OF THIS LINE THE NATION IS BEING AFFECTED BY            
 THE LARGE STORM SYSTEM CENTERED TO OUR SOUTH.  MUCH OF THIS MID                
 JANUARY PRECIPITATION IS FALLING AS RAIN ACROSS THE LOWER 48...WITH            
 A CHANGEOVER TO SNOW ACROSS SOUTHERN MICHIGAN AND NORTHERN                     
 ILLINOIS...AND THEN ALONG THE BACK EDGE OF THE PRECIPITATION BAND              
 FURTHER SOUTH.                                                                 
 CLOSER TO HOME...THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA CONTINUES TO            
 SEE NEARLY CONSTANT MODERATE SNOW.  THIS AREA IS ALSO IN A FAVORABLE           
 LOCATION...IN THE RIGHT REAR QUADRANT OF AN EXITING 130KT JET AS               
 SHOWN ON THE RUC.  THE ACTUAL JET MAX OF 170KT IS LOCATION ACROSS              
 SOUTHERN QUEBEC.  THE 500MB TROUGH IS ALSO NEARING THE                         
 REGION...CURRENTLY CENTERED ACROSS NORTHEASTERN NORTH DAKOTA THROUGH           
 NORTHEASTERN COLORADO...ATTEMPTING TO PUSH THIS SYSTEM OUT OF THE              
 CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS.  SURFACE WINDS CURRENTLY 10 TO 30                 
 DEGREES SHOULD BECOME MORE NORTHWARD AFTER 18Z 360 TO 20                       
 DEGREES...AND THEN BACK SLIGHTLY MORE NORTHWESTERLY AROUND AND AFTER           
 06Z TUESDAY TO 320 TO 350 DEGREES...LIMITING A GOOD FETCH FOR LAKE             
 EFFECT ACROSS THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE LAKE SUPERIOR                           
 SHORELINE...WITH THE FOCUS THEN SHIFTING TO THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN            
 UPPER PENINSULA.  WITH THAT SAID...NO CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE                 
 CURRENT WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES.  ALREADY HAVE ABOUT 5 INCHES AT WFO           
 MQT SINCE THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING WENT INTO EFFECT...SO IT                
 LOOKS LIKE IT SHOULD PAN OUT.                                                  
 OTHERWISE...NEARLY STEADY TEMPERATURES FIGURED TODAY.  WARMED UP               
 OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES TONIGHT ACROSS THE WEST CENTRAL PORTIONS OF             
 THE CWA...GIVEN WARMER GUIDANCE NUMBERS FROM THE MODELS AND THE FACT           
 THAT PLENTY OF CLOUDS SHOULD STILL BE AROUND AT THAT TIME.                     
 FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON...COLDEST AIR WILL BE OVERHEAD ACROSS THE                
 EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA WITH 850MB TEMPS OF -20 TO -22C.  WITH THIS            
 AND NORTHWESTERLY SURFACE WINDS...CLOUDS SHOULD HAVE A DIFFICULT               
 TIME EXITING THIS AREA.  SO...HAVE PLACED THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES             
 ACROSS THE LAKE MICHIGAN SHORELINE FOR TUESDAY.                                
 TUESDAY NIGHT IS EXPECTED TO BE THE COLDEST NIGHT IN THE NEAR                  
 FUTURE...WITH GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING ANTICIPATED PARTICULARLY                
 ACROSS THE SW PENINSULA.  SO...STAYED ON THE COOLER SIDE OF GUIDANCE           
 GENERALLY SIDING WITH THE MET HERE.                                            
 FROM THE 500MB TROUGH CURRENTLY STRETCHING FROM NORTHEAST TO                   
 SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE NATIONS MIDSECTION...A CUT OFF LOW IS EXPECTED            
 TO REMAIN.  THIS LOW SHOULD DEEPEN OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION                
 THROUGH MIDWEEK...BEFORE EJECTING NORTHEASTWARD TOWARDS THE GREAT              
 LAKES.  THIS WILL RESULT IN ONLY A SHORT BREAK IN PRECIPITATION FOR            
 OUR AREA.  HAVE A BRIEF DRY PERIOD GENERALLY FROM TUESDAY NIGH                 
 THOUGH WEDNESDAY.  IF THE QUICKER AND SLIGHTLY MORE FAVORED CANADIAN           
 AND UKMET PAN OUT...WE MAY NEED TO ADD POPS BACK A LITTLE QUICKER              
 THAN PREVIOUSLY ANTICIPATED.                                                   
 AS FOR TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY NIGHT...DISCREPANCIES AND FORECASTER             
 CONFIDENCE BEGINS TO COME INTO PLAY.  SO...FEW CHANCES WERE MADE               
 BEYOND THIS POINT.  STILL...FOLLOWING A SLIGHTLY CANADIAN AND UKMET            
 QUICKER SOLUTION...OUR LATEST WIND GRIDS DO REFLECT A SLIGHTLY                 
 QUICKER FRONT FOR THURSDAY.                                                    
 &&                                                                             
 .MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                            
 LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 11 PM EST                 
 MONDAY FOR MIZ001>004-006-084-085.                                             
 LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING FROM 11 PM EST /10 PM CST/ THIS EVENING               
 TO 11 PM EST /10 PM CST/ MONDAY FOR MIZ005-009.                                
 SNOW ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 11 PM EST MONDAY FOR MIZ013.                        
 SNOW ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6 PM CST MONDAY FOR                     
 MIZ010>012.                                                                    
 &&                                                                             
 $$                                                                             
 KF                                                                             
</pre> mi                                                                       

 AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                       
 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI                                    
 1255 AM EST MON JAN 15 2007                                                    
 .AVIATION...                                                                   
 PRECIPITATION HAD SPREAD OVER MOST OF SE MICHIGAN AT PRESS TIME,               
 AND ALL TERMINAL SITES. OBSERVATIONS, ESPECIALLY RADAR DATA, SHOW              
 THE AMOUNT AND DURATION WILL HAVE CONSIDERABLY GREATER IMPACTS ON              
 AVIATION THAN WHAT OCCURRED ON SUNDAY. THE DOMINANT PRECIPITATION              
 TYPE WILL BE FREEZING RAIN AT DTW/DET, SLEET AND SNOW AT FNT, AND              
 SNOW AT MBS. THE 06Z-14Z WINDOW STILL LOOKS GOOD FOR THE HEAVIEST              
 PRECIPITATION AT ALL TERMINALS, PUNCTUATED BY IFR CEILING AND                  
 VISIBILITY.                                                                    
 SOME LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE WILL OCCUR DURING THE LATE MORNING AND             
 EARLY AFTERNOON AS DRY AIR MOVES IN THROUGH THE MID LEVELS AND AS              
 THE SYSTEM DEPARTS OUR AREA. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY VISIBILITY               
 AND CEILING CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO VFR AND MVFR RESPECTIVELY BY               
 SUNSET MONDAY EVENING CONTINUING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.                         
 &&                                                                             
 .PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 951 PM EST SUN JAN 14 2007                           
 UPDATE...                                                                      
 OBSERVATIONS AND NEW 00Z MODEL DATA SUPPORTED THE GOING FORECAST               
 WITH NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES. FORECAST CONCERNS DURING THE                      
 OVERNIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING REVOLVED AROUND REFINEMENT OF                     
 PRECIPITATION TYPE AND AMOUNT, ALONG WITH THE DEGREE OF ICING IN               
 SOUTH SECTIONS OF THE AREA.                                                    
 THE SYSTEM HAD A LOT GOING FOR IT FROM THE COUPLED UPPER JET                   
 SUPPORTING THE MID LEVEL WAVE TO STRONG MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND                 
 LOW STATIC STABILITY. THERE IS EVEN SOME CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY                
 INDICATED IN MODEL CROSS SECTIONS NEAR THE OHIO BORDER THROUGH THE             
 EVENT. RAIN AND FREEZING RAIN WAS GETTING UNDERWAY NEAR THE OHIO               
 BORDER SINCE ABOUT 01Z AND SPREADING NORTHWARD ON STRONG MOISTURE              
 TRANSPORT/THETA-E ADVECTION. THIS WILL TRANSITION TO STRONG                    
 DYNAMIC FORCING IN THE MIDST OF THE MID LEVEL TROWAL AS THE                    
 SURFACE LOW TRACKS TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST. THE STRONG FORCING AND               
 HIGH PRECIPITATION RATES WILL KEEP PRECIPITATION TYPE ON THE COLD              
 END OF THE SPECTRUM IN CENTRAL AND SOUTH LOCATIONS WHERE THE                   
 THERMAL PROFILE ALLOWS MIXED PRECIPITATION. ALL SNOW IN THE TRI                
 CITIES AND THUMB LOOKS GOOD WITH BRIEF MIXES OF SLEET. PLAN TO KEEP            
 ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOW AND ICE AS IS WITH THE 00Z MODELS COMING IN              
 MORE IN LINE WITH RESPECT TO QPF. THE ONLY LIMITING FACTOR FOR                 
 ICING WILL BE NEAR THE OHIO BORDER WHERE TEMPERATURES WILL HOVER               
 AROUND THE FREEZING MARK NEAR THE LAKE ERIE SHORELINE, AT LEAST                
 UNTIL THE NORTHEAST WINDS INCREASE LATER IN THE NIGHT.                         
 PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 329 PM EST SUN JAN 14 2007                            
 SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND MONDAY                                                
 NOW THAT THE ROUND OF MIXED PRECIPITATION FROM THIS MORNING HAS                
 ENDED...THE ATTENTION TURNS TO A GATHERING STORM OVER THE SOUTHERN             
 PLAINS. A STRONG SHORTWAVE THAT HAS LIFTED AROUND THE BASE OF THE              
 MEAN WESTERN CONUS TROUGH INTO THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS WILL BE             
 RESPONSIBLE FOR AN EXPANDING AREA OF PRECIPITATION...WHICH WILL                
 PROGRESS QUICKLY INTO THE AREA TOWARD MIDNIGHT. THIS FEATURE HAS               
 ALREADY BEEN RESPONSIBLE FOR SIGNIFICANT FREEZING RAIN/SLEET OVER              
 PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TODAY...WITH QUITE A BIT OF THUNDER            
 OVER OKLAHOMA/NORTHERN TEXAS.                                                  
 12Z NAM HAS EXPANDED UPON "ITS" 06Z IDEA OF THROWING MORE MOISTURE             
 AND HENCE QPF INTO THE AREA LATE TONIGHT. THIS LEADS TO WIDESPREAD             
 75 TO NEAR 1.00 INCH TOTALS. IT ALSO BRINGS IN A STRONG ELEVATED               
 WARM LAYER WITH THIS SURGE...LEADING TO MORE FREEZING RAIN/SLEET.              
 GFS REMAINS MORE SUBDUED IN BOTH RESPECTS. THESE DIFFERENCES DO POSE           
 PROBLEMS IN BOTH PRECIPITATION TYPE/AMOUNT FORECASTS...WITH THE NAM            
 SUPPORTING SOLID WARNING CRITERIA CWA-WIDE...AND GFS NOT.                      
 NGM/GEM/LOCALWRF AND VARIOUS EXPERIMENTAL FSL RUC RUNS SUGGEST A               
 BLEND OF THE TWO...WHICH IS NOT TOO SURPRISING. THESE SOLUTIONS                
 SUPPORT WARNING CRITERIA FOR MOST COUNTIES...WITH ONLY A FEW ON THE            
 EDGE. IT IS WORTH NOTING THAT NAM WAS FAR SUPERIOR WITH THE QUARTER            
 INCH BAND OF SNOW/SLEET THAT MOVED THROUGH THE AREA THIS MORNING.              
 GIVEN THIS FACT...AND RADAR TRENDS THROUGH THE PLAINS/MISSISSIPPI              
 VALLEY SO FAR...FEEL THAT GIVING A BIT MORE WEIGHT TO THE NAM IS               
 PROBABLY THE WAY TO GO...SO AN UPGRADE TO VARIOUS WARNINGS SEEMS               
 REASONABLE. EVEN IF A 50/50 COMPROMISE IS USED...MOST COUNTIES                 
 SHOULD RECEIVE ENOUGH SNOW AND/OR ICE ACCUMULATIONS TO SUPPORT THE             
 WARNING CRITERIA.                                                              
 SO...THE PLAN IS TO GO WITH A HEAVY SNOW WARNING ACROSS THE SAGINAW            
 VALLEY AND NORTHERN THUMB WHERE PRECIPITATION WILL BE PRETTY MUCH              
 ALL SNOW. COUNTIES ALONG I-69 WILL HAVE A WINTER STORM WARNING FOR             
 THE MIXTURE OF SNOW/SLEET SOME FREEZING RAIN. MEANWHILE...THE MAIN             
 HAZARD FOR THE "M-59" COUNTIES SOUTH WILL BE FREEZING RAIN...SO AN             
 ICE STORM WARNING FITS WELL. THERE MAY BE SOME LOCATIONS NEAR LAKES            
 ERIE/ST CLAIR THAT WILL HOVER AT/ABOVE FREEZING...BUT MOST AREAS               
 SHOULD RECEIVED A PROLONGED FREEZING RAIN EVENT.                               
 ALMOST ALL THE THE PRECIPITATION FALLS BETWEEN 04Z-12Z...WITH THE              
 TAIL END OF THE EVENT LINGERING INTO MONDAY MORNING. WARNINGS WILL             
 BE TIMED ACCORDINGLY.                                                          
 LONG TERM...LATE MONDAY THROUGH SUNDAY                                         
 LAKE ENHANCED SNOWS WITHIN THE RESIDUAL DEFORMATION AXIS SHOULD                
 TRANSITION TO CLEANER BANDED STRUCTURES ACROSS LAKE HURON LATE                 
 MONDAY.  INVERSION HEIGHTS...AS PER THE 12Z NAM...ARE PROJECTED TO             
 START AROUND 5-6KFT MONDAY AFTERNOON AND LIFT TO 8-9KFT MONDAY                 
 NIGHT.  THERE WILL BE AMPLE MOISTURE WITHIN AND ABOVE THE CONVECTIVE           
 LAYER TO SUPPORT LAKE-EFFECT SNOWS.  THE PRIMARY LIMITING FACTOR               
 WILL BE THAT THE WINDS ARE BACKING THROUGH THE TIME PERIOD...HELPING           
 TO DISTRIBUTE THE SNOWFALL COVERAGE AND REDUCING THE CHANCES THAT              
 ANY ONE LOCATION SEES A PROLONGED PERIOD OF SNOW.  BY TUESDAY                  
 MORNING THE CONVECTIVE LAYER FLOW SHOULD BE NORTHWESTERLY...KEEPING            
 THE THUMB OUT OF THE SITES.                                                    
 THE ATMOSPHERE WILL SETTLE DOWN ACROSS THE REGION FOR THE REMAINING            
 PORTION OF THE FORECAST.  WEAK RIDGING IN THE PRESENCE OF A GENERAL            
 LOWERING OF HEIGHTS ALOFT WILL SET THE STAGE FOR SEASONABLE                    
 CONDITIONS.  THE NEXT SHOT AT SNOW HOLDS OFF UNTIL THE END OF                  
 WEEK...ONCE THE LONG WAVE TROUGHS TRIES TO RE-ESTABLISH ACROSS                 
 EASTERN NORTH AMERICA.  ONCE THIS OCCURS...NORTHWEST FLOW AND                  
 EMBEDDED FAST SHORTWAVES WILL BEGIN TO FREQUENT THE REGION.                    
 &&                                                                             
 .DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                            
 MI...ICE STORM WARNING...MIZ068-MIZ069-MIZ070-MIZ075-MIZ076-MIZ082-            
      MIZ083 UNTIL NOON MONDAY.                                                 
      HEAVY SNOW WARNING...MIZ047-MIZ048-MIZ049-MIZ053-MIZ054-MIZ055            
      UNTIL NOON MONDAY.                                                        
      WINTER STORM WARNING...MIZ060-MIZ061-MIZ062-MIZ063 UNTIL NOON             
      MONDAY.                                                                   
 LAKE HURON...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...NEARSHORE WATERS FROM PORT AUSTIN          
              TO PORT HURON INCLUDING SAGINAW BAY UNTIL                         
              7 AM TUESDAY.                                                     
 LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.                                                          
 MI WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...UNTIL 5 PM MONDAY.             
 &&                                                                             
 $$                                                                             
 AVIATION/UPDATE...BT                                                           
 SHORT TERM...DG                                                                
 LONG TERM....MANN                                                              
 YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE           
 AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).                                   
</pre> mi                                                                       

 AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                             
 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN                                             
 429 AM CST MON JAN 15 2007                                                     
 .UPDATE...                                                                     
 NO SNOWFALL SPOTTERS HAVE REPORTED OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER...CALLS TO COUNTY LAW    
 ENFORCEMENT HAVE INFORMED ME THAT NEW SNOWFALL OF 2 TO 4 INCHES                
 FELL OVERNIGHT ACROSS WASHBURN...SAWYER AND PRICE COUNTIES. SINCE              
 PINE...DOUGLAS AND BURNETT COUNTIES ALL REPORTED AROUND AN INCH                
 OVERNIGHT...AND THE MAIN FORCING AND STRONGER RADAR RETURNS HAVE               
 ALL PROCEEDED TO THE EAST..CANCELLED THE SN ADVISORY FOR THESE                 
 COUNTIES. DOUGLAS COUNTY MAY SEE SOME ACCUMULATION YET DUE TO LAKE             
 EFFECT...WITH UP TO 2 INCHES OF ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION NEAR LAKE              
 SUPERIOR.                                                                      
 &&                                                                             
 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 314 AM CST MON JAN 15 2007/                        
 DISCUSSION...                                                                  
 SYNOPTIC SNOW CONTINUES TO TRACK NE ACROSS NRN WISCONSIN WHILE LES             
 SNOW IS FOUND ALONG THE SNOW BELT REGION OF THE SOUTH SHORE. FIRST FCST        
 FOCUS ON TIMING THE BACK EDGE OF THE SNOW...AS WELL AS TOTAL SN                
 AMOUNTS. NO SIG CHANGES TO FCST. PREVIOUS FCST IN GOOD SHAPE WITH              
 LIKELY/DEF POPS ACROSS WI ZONES WHERE VARIOUS HEADLINES ARE IN                 
 EFFECT. THE GFS/NAM AGREE THAT THE FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE                 
 SYNOPTIC SN WILL MOVE EAST AND DIMINISH OVER THE ERN FA THROUGH                
 THIS MORNING...TAPERING OFF FROM WEST TO EAST THIS AFTERNOON. WILL             
 KEEP HEADLINE TIMING AS IS. THE GREATEST SNOWFALL AMOUNTS AWAY                 
 FROM LAKE SUPERIOR WILL BE ACROSS THE FAR SE ZONES /SAWYER AND                 
 PRICE COUNTIES/.                                                               
 SECOND FCST DIFFICULTY...LES TODAY. CURRENT SFC OBSERVATIONS AND               
 LOCAL WEB CAMS SHOW THAT THE LES HAS WEAKENED. ALTHOUGH THERE ARE              
 LIGHT RADAR RETURNS...AND THE COLD AIR AND TRAJECTORIES ARE IN                 
 PLACE...CIGS ARE INCREASING ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE. THE 08Z MSAS                
 AND NAM12 ANALYSIS ARE PICKING UP ON A VERY TIGHT LW LVL RH                    
 GRADIENT SITTING PARALLEL AND JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE SOUTH SHORE             
 OF LS. THIS ARCTIC DRY-LINE IS DEPICTED IN BOTH THE 1000-850 MB AND            
 925-850 MB RH FIELDS...WHERE VALUES OF 35-40 PERCENT ARE FOUND NORTH           
 OF THE THE BOUNDARY ALONG THE NORTH SHORE...AND OVER 80 PERCENT RH             
 JUST INLAND IN NW WIS. THE NAM/RUC BRING THIS DRY AIR OVER THE                 
 WRN TIP OF LS AND INTO THE FAR NW CORNER OF WIS THROUGH 12Z...THEN             
 RETREAT IT BACK OVER LS MID MORNING AS THE WINDS BACK TO THE                   
 N AND INCREASE BY 18Z. THE 2 AM OBSERVATIONS REFLECT THIS DRY POCKET           
 AS VSBYS HAVE INCREASED TO 8SM AT ASX AND 4SM AT IWD. IN                       
 ADDITION...THE HURLEY WEB CAM ALSO SHOWS NON-RESTRICTED VSBYS WITH             
 NO SNOWFALL AT THIS HOUR. AS LONG AS THIS DRY LAYER DOES NOT                   
 INTRUDE ANY FURTHER AND RETREATS TO THE NW AS THE MODELS                       
 SUGGEST...THE LES SHOWERS SHOULD QUICKLY COMMENCE AFTER SUNRISE.               
 ATTM...WILL KEEP LES WARNING AS IS WITH SLIGHTLY LOWER SN TOTALS               
 DUE TO LATER START. DAY SHIFT WILL NEED TO MONITOR.                            
 ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY.             
 THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING CLEARING SKIES WITH LIGHT WINDS                   
 OVERNIGHT. TONIGHT WILL LIKELY BE THE COLDEST OF YET...WITH THE                
 MID 20S BELOW ZERO ACROSS THE IRON RANGE AND ARROWHEAD...AND EVEN              
 SOME FAVORED LOCATIONS AS LOW AS THE 40S BELOW.                                
 &&                                                                             
 POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                            
 DLH   7 -17   5  -3 /  20  10   0  10                                          
 INL  -5 -26   1 -12 /   0   0   0  10                                          
 BRD   4 -16   8  -2 /  10   0   0  10                                          
 HYR  11  -9   7  -5 /  80  10   0  10                                          
 ASX  13  -2   7   0 / 100  40  20  10                                          
 &&                                                                             
 .DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                            
 MN...NONE.                                                                     
 WI...SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR PRICE-SAWYER-             
      WASHBURN.                                                                 
      LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR                
      ASHLAND-BAYFIELD-IRON.                                                    
 LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CST TUESDAY FOR LSZ121-LSZ146-           
      LSZ147-LSZ148.                                                            
 $$                                                                             
 GRANING                                                                        
</pre> mn                                                                       

 AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                       
 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN                                             
 314 AM CST MON JAN 15 2007                                                     
 .DISCUSSION...                                                                 
 SYNOPTIC SNOW CONTINUES TO TRACK NE ACROSS NRN WISCONSIN WHILE LES             
 SNOW IS FOUND ALONG THE SNOW BELT REGION OF THE SOUTH SHORE. FIRST FCST        
 FOCUS ON TIMING THE BACK EDGE OF THE SNOW...AS WELL AS TOTAL SN                
 AMOUNTS. NO SIG CHANGES TO FCST. PREVIOUS FCST IN GOOD SHAPE WITH              
 LIKELY/DEF POPS ACROSS WI ZONES WHERE VARIOUS HEADLINES ARE IN                 
 EFFECT. THE GFS/NAM AGREE THAT THE FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE                 
 SYNOPTIC SN WILL MOVE EAST AND DIMINISH OVER THE ERN FA THROUGH                
 THIS MORNING...TAPERING OFF FROM WEST TO EAST THIS AFTERNOON. WILL             
 KEEP HEADLINE TIMING AS IS. THE GREATEST SNOWFALL AMOUNTS AWAY                 
 FROM LAKE SUPERIOR WILL BE ACROSS THE FAR SE ZONES /SAWYER AND                 
 PRICE COUNTIES/. AS OF 2 AM...PRICE COUNTY SHERIFF REPORTED 4                  
 INCHES IN PHILLIPS AND 2 INCHES IN PARK FALLS. NOT ANTICIPATING AN             
 UPGRADE FOR THESE COUNTIES...BUT LOCATIONS IN FAR SRN PORTIONS OF              
 THESE COUNTIES WILL SEE SN TOTALS UP TO 6 INCHES...WITH POSSIBLE               
 LOCALIZED HIGHER AMOUNTS ALONG AND SOUTH OF HWY 8 NEAR PRENTICE.               
 SECOND FCST DIFFICULTY...LES TODAY. CURRENT SFC OBSERVATIONS AND               
 LOCAL WEB CAMS SHOW THAT THE LES HAS WEAKENED. ALTHOUGH THERE ARE              
 LIGHT RADAR RETURNS...AND THE COLD AIR AND TRAJECTORIES ARE IN                 
 PLACE...CIGS ARE INCREASING ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE. THE 08Z MSAS                
 AND NAM12 ANALYSIS ARE PICKING UP ON A VERY TIGHT LW LVL RH                    
 GRADIENT SITTING PARALLEL AND JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE SOUTH SHORE             
 OF LS. THIS ARCTIC DRY-LINE IS DEPICTED IN BOTH THE 1000-850 MB AND            
 925-850 MB RH FIELDS...WHERE VALUES OF 35-40 PERCENT ARE FOUND NORTH           
 OF THE THE BOUNDARY ALONG THE NORTH SHORE...AND OVER 80 PERCENT RH             
 JUST INLAND IN NW WIS. THE NAM/RUC BRING THIS DRY AIR OVER THE                 
 WRN TIP OF LS AND INTO THE FAR NW CORNER OF WIS THROUGH 12Z...THEN             
 RETREAT IT BACK OVER LS MID MORNING AS THE WINDS BACK TO THE                   
 N AND INCREASE BY 18Z. THE 2 AM OBSERVATIONS REFLECT THIS DRY POCKET           
 AS VSBYS HAVE INCREASED TO 8SM AT ASX AND 4SM AT IWD. IN                       
 ADDITION...THE HURLEY WEB CAM ALSO SHOWS NON-RESTRICTED VSBYS WITH             
 NO SNOWFALL AT THIS HOUR. AS LONG AS THIS DRY LAYER DOES NOT                   
 INTRUDE ANY FURTHER AND RETREATS TO THE NW AS THE MODELS                       
 SUGGEST...THE LES SHOWERS SHOULD QUICKLY COMMENCE AFTER SUNRISE.               
 ATTM...WILL KEEP LES WARNING AS IS WITH SLIGHTLY LOWER SN TOTALS               
 DUE TO LATER START. DAY SHIFT WILL NEED TO MONITOR.                            
 ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY.             
 THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING CLEARING SKIES WITH LIGHT WINDS                   
 OVERNIGHT. TONIGHT WILL LIKELY BE THE COLDEST OF YET...WITH THE                
 MID 20S BELOW ZERO ACROSS THE IRON RANGE AND ARROWHEAD...AND EVEN              
 SOME FAVORED LOCATIONS AS LOW AS THE 40S BELOW.                                
 &&                                                                             
 POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                            
 DLH   7 -17   5  -7 /  40  10  10  10                                          
 INL  -5 -26   1 -14 /   0   0   0  10                                          
 BRD   4 -16   8  -4 /  10   0   0  10                                          
 HYR  11 -10   7  -7 /  80  20  10  10                                          
 ASX  12  -5   7  -2 /  90  40  30  10                                          
 &&                                                                             
 .DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                            
 MN...SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR PINE.                              
 WI...SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR BURNETT.                           
      SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR PRICE-SAWYER-             
      WASHBURN.                                                                 
      LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR                
      ASHLAND-BAYFIELD-IRON.                                                    
      LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR               
      DOUGLAS.                                                                  
 LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CST TUESDAY FOR LSZ121-LSZ146-           
      LSZ147-LSZ148.                                                            
 $$                                                                             
 GRANING                                                                        
</pre> mn                                                                       

 AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                       
 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO                                           
 206 AM CST MON JAN 15 2007                                                     
 .DISCUSSION...                                                                 
 CLASSIC COMMA PCPN STRUCTURE ON RADAR WITH SNOW OVR IA IN THE COMMA            
 HEAD AND A TRAILING BAND OF RAIN ACRS THE SRN AND ERN PTN OF THE               
 CWA IN THE WRM CONVEYOR BELT. PATCHY DRIZZLE OR FREEZING DRIZZLE               
 IS BEING REPORTED ACRS THE NRN AND WRN PTN OF THE CWA...N AND W OF             
 STL...WITH A FEW RPTS OF LGT SLEET AS WELL. MAY STILL HAVE SOME                
 LGT RAIN OVR THE EXTREME SRN AND ERN PTN OF THE CWA ARND 12Z MON               
 AS BOTH NAM AND GFS MDLS STILL DEPICT SOME UPR LVL DIVERGENCE S                
 AND E OF STL ARND 12Z MON AHD OF POSITIVELY TILTED UPR TROF EXTDG              
 FM THE NRN PLAINS SW THRU THE SRN RCKYS. MOST OF THE MEASUREABLE               
 PCPN SHOULD END SHORTLY AFTER 12Z MON THOUGH AS VORT MAX DEPICTED              
 BY LATEST RUC ANLYS OVR W CNTRL MO MOVES NE OF THE CWA LTR THIS                
 MRNG AND THE MOISTURE PROFILE BCMS SHALLOW AFTER 12Z MON AS                    
 DISPLAYED ON MDL TIME HGT SECTIONS OF RH. NOT MUCH FORCING FOR                 
 UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION BY LT MRNG AND AFTN WITH STG 850 MB CAA                 
 BHND 850 MB TROF AND SUBSIDENCE INCRSG WITH STG ARCTIC SFC RDG                 
 BLDG SEWD INTO MO BHND SFC LOW AND ATTENDANT CDFNT. MAY STILL SEE              
 SOME PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE OR FLURRIES FM COU TO UIN AND PATCHY              
 DRIZZLE CHANGING TO PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE AND FLURRIES IN STL                
 AND FAM LT THIS MRNG AND THIS AFTN WITH CYCLONIC MID-UPR LVL FLOW              
 AHD OF THE POSITIVELY TILTED TROF AND A SHALOW MOISTURE PROFILE FM             
 THE SFC TO ARND 850 MB. TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY SLOWLY FALL                   
 DURING THE DAY WITH STG LOW LVL CAA COMBINED WITH A STRATUS OVC                
 SKY ALL DAY. SHOULD HAVE RELATIVELY STG NWLY SFC WNDS TDA DUE TO               
 A TIGHT SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT BTWN SFC LOW MOVG NEWD THRU THE OH               
 VLY REGION AND STG SFC RDG BLDG SEWD THRU THE PLAINS. COLD                     
 TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TGT WITH CONTD NWLY LOW LVL WNDS AND CAA.                
 MDLS FCSTG 850 MB TEMPS TO FALL TO ARND -12 TO -15 DGRS C BY 06Z TUE           
 AND SFC DWPTS FALLING TO ARND 10 TO 15 DGRS F BY LT TGT. SHOULD                
 FINALLY SEE SUNSHINE ON TUE WITH MOS GUIDANCE INDICATING DCRSG                 
 CLOUDINESS LT MON NGT AND MDL RH FCSTS SHOWING DCRSG LOW LVL RH ON             
 TUE. TEMPERATURES SHOULD STILL REMAIN BLW FREEZING ON TUE DESPITE              
 PLENTY OF SUNSHINE DURING THE AFTN WITH THE STG ARCTIC SFC HI                  
 CNTRD OVR THE PLAINS. ANOTHER COLD NGT ON TUE NGT WITH GOOD                    
 RADIATIONAL COOLING DUE TO THE SFC RDG OVR THE CWA BRINGING A CLR              
 SKY...LGT SFC WNDS AND SFC DWPTS ONLY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS.                    
 TEMPERATURES SHOULD GET ABV THE FREEZING MARK ON WED WITH RISING               
 MID-UPR LVL HGTS AND A RETURN SLY LOW LVL FLOW BGNG ON THE WEST                
 SIDE OF SFC/850 MB RDG.                                                        
 GKS                                                                            
 &&                                                                             
 .AVIATION...                                                                   
 FOR THE 06Z TAFS...IFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THRU MUCH OF THE                  
 EARLY PART OF VALID TAF PERIOD...AT LEAST THRU MID MORNING ON                  
 MONDAY. PCPN AREAS HAS NOW BEEN SHUNTED EWD WHERE IT ONLY AFFECTS              
 THE KSTL/KSUS TAF SITES AND IS ALL LIQUID THANKS TO ABOVE 32F SFC              
 TEMPS. THIS AREA EXPECTED TO BE E OF THESE TAF SITES BY 08Z.                   
 OTHERWISE...LOOK FOR PROLOGED PERIOD OF PATCHY FZDZ/FLURRIES AS                
 SYSTEM PULLS AWAY...AND SHOULD CONTINUE TIL LATE MORNING/EARLY                 
 AFTERNOON ON MONDAY. SFC WINDS NOW IN THE PROCESS OF SHIFTING TO               
 THE NW AND WILL INCREASE AS THE LO PULLS AWAY...WITH SPEEDS TO                 
 AROUND 15KTS OR SO AS THE PRES GRADIENT TIGHTENS DURING THE DAY ON             
 MONDAY.                                                                        
 TES                                                                            
 &&                                                                             
 .LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                            
 MO...NONE.                                                                     
 IL...NONE.                                                                     
 &&                                                                             
 $$                                                                             
 WFO LSX                                                                        
</pre> mo                                                                       

 AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                       
 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY                                         
 209 AM EST MON JAN 15 2007                                                     
 .HYDROLOGY...                                                                  
 SOME CONCERN THIS MORNING ABOUT FLOOD POTENTIAL. PRECIP TYPE MIX               
 OF FREEZING RAIN AND RAIN MOST AREAS WITH MORE ICE IN THE NORTH.               
 FORECASTED RAINFALL AMOUNTS AROUND AN INCH. MARFC HEADWATER                    
 GUIDANCE SHOWS MONROETON AND SHERBURNE AT 1 AND 1.2 INCHES                     
 RESPECTIVELY IN 6 AND ALSO 12 HOURS. OTHER HEADWATER AND FLASH FLOOD           
 GUIDANCE FROM BOTH RFCS HIGHER MOSTLY BETWEEN 1.5 AND 2.5 INCHES.              
 STREAMS AND RIVERS RUNNING UNSEASONABLY HIGH WITH SATURATED OR                 
 FROZEN GROUND. WITH AFTN TEMPS INTO 40S ALL BUT FAR N AND E ANY                
 ICE ACCUMULATED THIS MORNING WILL MELT AND RUNOFF. IN THE FAR N                
 AND E THERE WILL BE MORE ICE SO EXPECTED PRECIP TOTALS WILL NOT                
 ALL RUN OFF LIKE SRN TIER NY AND NE PA.                                        
 AFTER CHAT WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES WILL HOLD OFF ON A FLOOD WATCH             
 ATTM. ANY FLOOD PROBLEMS WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL MIDDAY AND SHOULD BE              
 MINOR AT WORST. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR AS ALWAYS. TAC                        
 &&                                                                             
 .PREV DISCUSSION...                                                            
 /ISSUED 125 AM EST MON JAN 15 2007/                                            
 SHORT TERM /TODAY/...                                                          
 WE ANTICIPATE AN EARLY ISSUANCE OF THE FORECAST PRODUCTS THIS                  
 MORNING TO GET AS MUCH LEAD TIME AS POSSIBLE FOR FLAG UPGRADES.                
 A POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS SITUATION IS SETTING UP FOR THE EASTERN                
 FORECAST AREA. WHILE THE FOCUS HAS RIGHTLY BEEN ON ICE                         
 ACCUMULATION OVER THE FINGER LAKES, ONONDAGA, MADISON, AND ONEIDA              
 COUNTIES, NEW MESOSCALE MODEL GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING SIGNIFICANT               
 ICE ACCUMULATION INTO THE CATSKILLS REGION, AND MAYBE EVEN THE POCONOS.        
 A LARGE POOL OF VERY COLD AIR IS IN PLACE OVER EXTREME NORTHERN                
 NEW YORK AND NEW ENGLAND, INTO QUEBEC PROVINCE. RUC40 AND NAM12                
 SFC TEMP FIELDS EACH SHOW THIS COLD AIR BLEEDING SOUTHWARD INTO                
 THE CATSKILLS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS, AND REMAINING FIXED FOR             
 A GOOD PORTION OF TODAY. THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH CLIMATOLOGY...WE              
 HAVE SEEN THIS MANY TIMES. IN THE MEANTIME MOISTURE IS STREAMING               
 NORTHWARD AS ANTICIPATED. GIVEN THE STRONG TEMP GRADIENT FORECAST              
 OVER THE EASTERN FA, PLUS THE ADDED TERRAIN LIFT, THINK THIS AREA              
 COULD RECEIVE MORE FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET THAN PREVIOUSLY                     
 EXPECTED THIS MORNING/AFTERNOON. IF ONE IS TO BUY THE SFC GUIDANCE             
 AS ADVERTISED, THE FREEZING LINE DIPS SOUTHWESTWARD INTO                       
 PIKE/WAYNE COUNTIES. THIS REGION WILL BE "ON THE EDGE." SO WHAT WE             
 PROPOSE TO DO IS UPGRADE EASTERN NY COUNTIES TO A WINTER STORM                 
 WARNING, AND ADD AN ADVISORY FOR PIKE/SOUTHERN WAYNE.                          
 DIFFERENT TIMING SCENARIO BUT SIMILAR RESULTS FOR SOUTHERN TIER OF             
 NY AND OTHER PORTIONS OF NORTHEASTERN PA. COLD AIR IS ALREADY IN               
 PLACE OVER TWIN TIERS, WITH STEUBEN CTY IN MID 20S EARLY THIS                  
 MORNING AND UPPER 20S EXTENDING EASTWARD THROUGH BROOME COUNTY.                
 WITH TEMPERATURES THIS FAR BELOW FREEZING, AND EXPECTED TO REMAIN              
 BELOW FREEZING A FEW HOURS LONGER THAN EXPECTED THIS MORNING, WE               
 WILL UPGRADE THIS REGION TO A WARNING TOO FOR FREEZING RAIN AND                
 SLEET.                                                                         
 MESO-OBS SHOW TEMPS OVER SULLIVAN AND WYOMING CTYS IN PA HOVERING              
 AROUND FREEZING MARK TOO. AN ADVISORY IS NEEDED HERE. THE LATER                
 CREWS SHOULD BE ABLE TO DROP THIS ADVISORY BY MID MORNING, BUT FOR             
 NOW IT NEEDS TO BE ADDED TO THE SUITE.                                         
 COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH TONIGHT. GIVEN VERY TIGHT TEMP GRADIENT,             
 AND FORECASTED FORCING/OMEGA ALONG THE FRONT, CAN SEE POTENTIAL                
 FOR A SQUALL DROPPING SOUTHEASTWARD WITH FRONT DURING EVENING                  
 HOURS. THIS IS SOMETHING WE NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON UPSTREAM, AS IT             
 WOULD ENTER THE NORTHWESTERN FORECAST AREA JUST AN HOUR OR TWO                 
 AFTER PEAK DRIVE TIME.                                                         
 MUCH COLDER AIR WILL SPAWN LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS TUESDAY AND                
 TUESDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER ORGANIZATION LOOKS WEAK AT THIS POINT, AND              
 AM NOT YET SOLD ON ANYTHING BUT LIGHT ACCUMULATION.  DJP                       
 LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...                                          
 WITH FOCUS ON THE SHORT TERM, WE FOLLOWED HPC GUIDANCE CLOSELY WHICH           
 LOOKED VERY GOOD. SOME LES LIKELY TUES NGT INTO WED ON A COLD NW               
 FLOW, WHICH SHUD DIMINISH ON WED AFTN. THE LAKES ARE VERY MILD FOR             
 THIS TIME OF YEAR, AND COLD AIR TEMPS SUGGEST AT LEAST MDT                     
 INSTABILITY. LATEST PROFILES SHOW FAIRLY WELL ALIGNED NW FLOW TUES             
 NGT INTO WED MRNG, WITH INVERSION NEAR 850 MB TUES NGT THEN LOWERING           
 ON WED. LOOKS LIKE POTNL FOR SOME ADVISORY ACCUMS ACRS PORTIONS OF             
 THE FINGER LAKES AND SUSQ RGN. HIGH PRES BUILDS IN FOR WED NGT AND             
 THU WITH FAIR WX. ANOTHER REINFORCING SURGE OF COLD AIR LATE IN THE            
 WEEK WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS.                                            
 AVIATION /06Z-06Z/...                                                          
 STARTING CONDITIONS MOSTLY MVFR TO VFR. EXCEPTION IS BGM WITH IFR              
 VSBY AND LIFR CIG. AS STEADY PRECIP MOVES IN THE NEXT 3 HOURS                  
 CONDITIONS WILL DROP TO IFR/LIFR CIGS EVERYWHERE FROM SW TO NE.                
 VSBYS MAY STAY AT MVFR ALL BUT BGM. PRECIP TYPES WILL BE RAIN AT               
 AVP...SNPL AT RME AND MAYBE SYR...AND FZRA ALL OTHERS. WINDS NE TO             
 E AT 5 TO 10 KTS.                                                              
 PRECIP TO CHANGE TO JUST RAIN FROM SW TO NE DURING THE DAY MONDAY              
 AS CIGS RISE SOME TO MVFR AS THE WARM FRONT LIFTS THROUGH IN THE               
 AFTN BRIEFLY. WINDS SHIFT TO S TO SW AT 5 TO 10 KTS. COLD FRONT                
 FROM 23Z TO 02Z WILL SHIFT THE WINDS TO W TO NW AT 5 TO 10 KTS.                
 ALL SITES IMPROVE TO MVFR/VFR CIGS AND VSBYS. STEADY PRECIP ENDS.              
 IF ANYTHING THEN SOME SCT LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS BUT NOT MENTIONED                 
 THAT FAR OUT IN TAFS. TAC                                                      
 &&                                                                             
 .BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                            
 NY...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR NYZ009-            
      015>018-022>025-036-037-044>046-055>057-062.                              
 PA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR                 
      PAZ038>040-043-044-048-072.                                               
 &&                                                                             
 $$                                                                             
</pre> ny                                                                       

 AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                       
 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY                                         
 125 AM EST MON JAN 15 2007                                                     
 .SHORT TERM /TODAY/...                                                         
 WE ANTICIPATE AN EARLY ISSUANCE OF THE FORECAST PRODUCTS THIS                  
 MORNING TO GET AS MUCH LEAD TIME AS POSSIBLE FOR FLAG UPGRADES.                
 A POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS SITUATION IS SETTING UP FOR THE EASTERN                
 FORECAST AREA. WHILE THE FOCUS HAS RIGHTLY BEEN ON ICE                         
 ACCUMULATION OVER THE FINGER LAKES, ONONDAGA, MADISON, AND ONEIDA              
 COUNTIES, NEW MESOSCALE MODEL GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING SIGNIFICANT               
 ICE ACCUMULATION INTO THE CATSKILLS REGION, AND MAYBE EVEN THE POCONOS.        
 A LARGE POOL OF VERY COLD AIR IS IN PLACE OVER EXTREME NORTHERN                
 NEW YORK AND NEW ENGLAND, INTO QUEBEC PROVINCE. RUC40 AND NAM12                
 SFC TEMP FIELDS EACH SHOW THIS COLD AIR BLEEDING SOUTHWARD INTO                
 THE CATSKILLS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS, AND REMAINING FIXED FOR             
 A GOOD PORTION OF TODAY. THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH CLIMATOLOGY...WE              
 HAVE SEEN THIS MANY TIMES. IN THE MEANTIME MOISTURE IS STREAMING               
 NORTHWARD AS ANTICIPATED. GIVEN THE STRONG TEMP GRADIENT FORECAST              
 OVER THE EASTERN FA, PLUS THE ADDED TERRAIN LIFT, THINK THIS AREA              
 COULD RECEIVE MORE FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET THAN PREVIOUSLY                     
 EXPECTED THIS MORNING/AFTERNOON. IF ONE IS TO BUY THE SFC GUIDANCE             
 AS ADVERTISED, THE FREEZING LINE DIPS SOUTHWESTWARD INTO                       
 PIKE/WAYNE COUNTIES. THIS REGION WILL BE "ON THE EDGE." SO WHAT WE             
 PROPOSE TO DO IS UPGRADE EASTERN NY COUNTIES TO A WINTER STORM                 
 WARNING, AND ADD AN ADVISORY FOR PIKE/SOUTHERN WAYNE.                          
 DIFFERENT TIMING SCENARIO BUT SIMILAR RESULTS FOR SOUTHERN TIER OF             
 NY AND OTHER PORTIONS OF NORTHEASTERN PA. COLD AIR IS ALREADY IN               
 PLACE OVER TWIN TIERS, WITH STEUBEN CTY IN MID 20S EARLY THIS                  
 MORNING AND UPPER 20S EXTENDING EASTWARD THROUGH BROOME COUNTY.                
 WITH TEMPERATURES THIS FAR BELOW FREEZING, AND EXPECTED TO REMAIN              
 BELOW FREEZING A FEW HOURS LONGER THAN EXPECTED THIS MORNING, WE               
 WILL UPGRADE THIS REGION TO A WARNING TOO FOR FREEZING RAIN AND                
 SLEET.                                                                         
 MESO-OBS SHOW TEMPS OVER SULLIVAN AND WYOMING CTYS IN PA HOVERING              
 AROUND FREEZING MARK TOO. AN ADVISORY IS NEEDED HERE. THE LATER                
 CREWS SHOULD BE ABLE TO DROP THIS ADVISORY BY MID MORNING, BUT FOR             
 NOW IT NEEDS TO BE ADDED TO THE SUITE.                                         
 COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH TONIGHT. GIVEN VERY TIGHT TEMP GRADIENT,             
 AND FORECASTED FORCING/OMEGA ALONG THE FRONT, CAN SEE POTENTIAL                
 FOR A SQUALL DROPPING SOUTHEASTWARD WITH FRONT DURING EVENING                  
 HOURS. THIS IS SOMETHING WE NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON UPSTREAM, AS IT             
 WOULD ENTER THE NORTHWESTERN FORECAST AREA JUST AN HOUR OR TWO                 
 AFTER PEAK DRIVE TIME.                                                         
 MUCH COLDER AIR WILL SPAWN LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS TUESDAY AND                
 TUESDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER ORGANIZATION LOOKS WEAK AT THIS POINT, AND              
 AM NOT YET SOLD ON ANYTHING BUT LIGHT ACCUMULATION.  DJP                       
 &&                                                                             
 .LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...                                         
 WITH FOCUS ON THE SHORT TERM, WE FOLLOWED HPC GUIDANCE CLOSELY WHICH           
 LOOKED VERY GOOD. SOME LES LIKELY TUES NGT INTO WED ON A COLD NW               
 FLOW, WHICH SHUD DIMINISH ON WED AFTN. THE LAKES ARE VERY MILD FOR             
 THIS TIME OF YEAR, AND COLD AIR TEMPS SUGGEST AT LEAST MDT                     
 INSTABILITY. LATEST PROFILES SHOW FAIRLY WELL ALIGNED NW FLOW TUES             
 NGT INTO WED MRNG, WITH INVERSION NEAR 850 MB TUES NGT THEN LOWERING           
 ON WED. LOOKS LIKE POTNL FOR SOME ADVISORY ACCUMS ACRS PORTIONS OF             
 THE FINGER LAKES AND SUSQ RGN. HIGH PRES BUILDS IN FOR WED NGT AND             
 THU WITH FAIR WX. ANOTHER REINFORCING SURGE OF COLD AIR LATE IN THE            
 WEEK WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS.                                            
 &&                                                                             
 .AVIATION /06Z-06Z/...                                                         
 STARTING CONDITIONS MOSTLY MVFR TO VFR. EXCEPTION IS BGM WITH IFR              
 VSBY AND LIFR CIG. AS STEADY PRECIP MOVES IN THE NEXT 3 HOURS                  
 CONDITIONS WILL DROP TO IFR/LIFR CIGS EVERYWHERE FROM SW TO NE.                
 VSBYS MAY STAY AT MVFR ALL BUT BGM. PRECIP TYPES WILL BE RAIN AT               
 AVP...SNPL AT RME AND MAYBE SYR...AND FZRA ALL OTHERS. WINDS NE TO             
 E AT 5 TO 10 KTS.                                                              
 PRECIP TO CHANGE TO JUST RAIN FROM SW TO NE DURING THE DAY MONDAY              
 AS CIGS RISE SOME TO MVFR AS THE WARM FRONT LIFTS THROUGH IN THE               
 AFTN BRIEFLY. WINDS SHIFT TO S TO SW AT 5 TO 10 KTS. COLD FRONT                
 FROM 23Z TO 02Z WILL SHIFT THE WINDS TO W TO NW AT 5 TO 10 KTS.                
 ALL SITES IMPROVE TO MVFR/VFR CIGS AND VSBYS. STEADY PRECIP ENDS.              
 IF ANYTHING THEN SOME SCT LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS BUT NOT MENTIONED                 
 THAT FAR OUT IN TAFS. TAC                                                      
 &&                                                                             
 .BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                            
 NY...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR NYZ009-            
      015>018-022>025-036-037-044>046-055>057-062.                              
 PA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR                 
      PAZ038>040-043-044-048-072.                                               
 &&                                                                             
 $$                                                                             
 SHORT TERM...DJP                                                               
 AVIATION...TAC                                                                 
</pre> ny                                                                       

 AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                       
 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH                                         
 349 AM EST MON JAN 15 2007                                                     
 .SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...                                       
 SFC LOW IS NR OF IND...WITH A WRMFNT RUNNING NE UP TO NR AOH AND               
 FDY. POSITION OF THE LOW IS WEST OF ALL THE MODELS...WHICH SHOULD              
 MEAN THAT TEMPS AT 12Z WILL BE WARMER THAN GUIDANCE. USED THE RAW              
 RUC/NAM12 SFC TEMPS FOR MY 12Z TEMPS AND MADE THEM MY HIGH TEMPS.              
 WITH LOW PULLS NE COLDER AIR WILL WORK INTO THE REGION THIS                    
 AFTERNOON. RAIN WILL GRADUALLY CHANGE TO SNOW IN THE NW HALF                   
 TODAY...THEN ACROSS THE SE TONIGHT. MODELS DRAG A PERIOD OF                    
 MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN ACRS THE FA THIS MORNING. WILL LEAVE FFA                
 UP THRU EXPIRATION TIME.                                                       
 PCPN WILL TAPER OFF QUICKLY THIS AFTERNOON.                                    
 NORTHERLY FLOW OVER THE LAKES WILL PRODUCE SNOW SHOWERS TONIGHT                
 INTO EARLY TUE EVENING.                                                        
 HIGH BUILDS IN TUE NGT INTO WED.                                               
 FOR TEMPS THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD....USED A BLEND OF GUIDANCE.         
 SITES                                                                          
 &&                                                                             
 .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...                                 
 NO CHANGE TO PREVIOUS FORECAST.                                                
 &&                                                                             
 .AVIATION /06Z-06Z/... SFC LOW HAS TRANSLATED A GOOD BIT OF ENERGY             
 TO THE NE ALONG THE FRONT AND IS CURRENTLY LOCATED JUST NW OF                  
 KY/IL/IN BORDER. FRONT TRAVELS ENE THROUGH OHVLY...STAYING JUST N              
 OF OHRIVER AS IT CUTS THROUGH ILN AND PBZ. CIGS AND VSBYS SE OF                
 THE FRONT WILL REMAIN VFR AS WINDS PICK UP FROM THE S AROUND                   
 8-12KTS. THE SFC LOW TRACKS QUICKLY NE THROUGH IN AND                          
 OH...REACHING WRN NY BY NOON. FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE                          
 MORNING...WINDS WILL PICK UP FROM THE SW AND BE GUSTY IN A FAIRLY              
 STEADY RAINFALL. A WEAK WIND SHIFT TO THE WEST WILL MARK THE                   
 FRONAL PASSAGE...QUICKLY TURNING OFF THE RAINFALL THIS AFTERNOON               
 FROM NW-SE.                                                                    
 WAS A LITTLE MORE OPTIMISTIC IN THE CIGS TODAY...ONCE WINDS PICK UP            
 THEY SHOULD STAY OUT OF THE PESKY IFR/LIFR CATEGORY THAT HAS                   
 PREVAILED FOR THE PAST FEW DAYS. ISOLD -SHSN MAY OCCUR FROM 0Z TO 6Z           
 BUT THERE IS NOT ANY PARTICULAR AREA FOR THEM TO OCCUR...HAVE LEFT             
 OUT ATTM AS THEY SHOULDN`T AFFECT VSBYS ALL THAT MUCH...OR AT LEAST            
 BE MORE MISS THAN HIT.                                                         
 &&                                                                             
 &&                                                                             
 .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                            
 OH...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR OHZ026-034-035-              
      042>046-051>056-060>065-070>074-077>082-088.                              
 KY...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR KYZ089>100.                  
 IN...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR INZ050-058-059-              
      066-073>075-080.                                                          
 &&                                                                             
 $$                                                                             
</pre> oh                                                                       

 AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                       
 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH                                         
 111 AM EST MON JAN 15 2007                                                     
 .AVIATION /6Z-6Z/...                                                           
 SFC LOW HAS TRANSLATED A GOOD BIT OF ENERGY TO THE NE ALONG THE                
 FRONT AND IS CURRENTLY LOCATED JUST NW OF KY/IL/IN BORDER. FRONT               
 TRAVELS ENE THROUGH OHVLY...STAYING JUST N OF OHRIVER AS IT CUTS               
 THROUGH ILN AND PBZ. CIGS AND VSBYS SE OF THE FRONT WILL REMAIN VFR            
 AS WINDS PICK UP FROM THE S AROUND 8-12KTS. THE SFC LOW TRACKS                 
 QUICKLY NE THROUGH IN AND OH...REACHING WRN NY BY NOON. FOR THE                
 MAJORITY OF THE MORNING...WINDS WILL PICK UP FROM THE SW AND BE                
 GUSTY IN A FAIRLY STEADY RAINFALL. A WEAK WIND SHIFT TO THE WEST               
 WILL MARK THE FRONAL PASSAGE...QUICKLY TURNING OFF THE RAINFALL THIS           
 AFTERNOON FROM NW-SE.                                                          
 WAS A LITTLE MORE OPTIMISTIC IN THE CIGS TODAY...ONCE WINDS PICK UP            
 THEY SHOULD STAY OUT OF THE PESKY IFR/LIFR CATEGORY THAT HAS                   
 PREVAILED FOR THE PAST FEW DAYS. ISOLD -SHSN MAY OCCUR FROM 0Z TO 6Z           
 BUT THERE IS NOT ANY PARTICULAR AREA FOR THEM TO OCCUR...HAVE LEFT             
 OUT ATTM AS THEY SHOULDN`T AFFECT VSBYS ALL THAT MUCH...OR AT LEAST            
 BE MORE MISS THAN HIT.                                                         
 &&                                                                             
 .PREVIOUS DISCUSSIONS...                                                       
 ISSUED 730 PM EST SUN JAN 14 2007                                              
 SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/                                                           
 ADJUSTED HOURLY TEMPERATURES DOWN SLIGHTLY TO REFLECT CURRENT                  
 CONDITIONS. REST OF FORECAST UNCHANGED.                                        
 ISSUED 525 PM EST SUN JAN 14 2007                                              
 SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...                                  
 FRONT REMAINS DRAPED ACROSS THE AREA. SHOWERS CONTINUE...MAINLY TO             
 THE NORTH OF THE FRONT. A STRONG WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING UP THE            
 FRONT WILL ENHANCE THE PRECIPITATION AND RESULT IN WIDESPREAD                  
 RAINFALL TONIGHT. FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT ALL ZONES.                          
 AS THE LOW CONTINUES ON A NORTHEASTERLY TRACK ON MONDAY...IT WILL              
 DRAG THE FRONT EAST OF THE AREA AND ALLOW COLDER AND DRIER AIR TO              
 FILTER IN. TEMPERATURES WILL BE COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW BY MONDAY                 
 NIGHT...AND THOUGH MOISTURE WITH THE LOW WILL BE GONE...THE FLOW               
 BEHIND THE LOW WILL BE CONDUCIVE FOR LAKE ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS. 850           
 MB TO LAKE SURFACE TEMPERATURE DIFFERENTIALS WILL BE IMPRESSIVE AT             
 GREATER THAN 15 DEGREES CELSIUS. IN ADDITION...THE RELATIVELY STRONG           
 850 MB WINDS OF ABOUT 20 KTS AND THE SHALLOW DEPTH OF THE UNSTABLE             
 LAYER WILL ALLOW THE LAKE MOISTURE TO REACH THIS FAR INLAND. WENT              
 WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY                     
 AFTERNOON. AS USUAL WITH LAKE EFFECT SITUATIONS IN THE ILN AREA...WE           
 ARE EXPECTING LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS. SNOW SHOWERS WILL END                  
 TUESDAY AFTERNOON WHEN THE AIRMASS BECOMES TO DRY FOR SNOW TO FORM.            
 SKIES WILL BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR TUESDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS           
 IN.                                                                            
 TEMPERATURES ARE VERY TRICKY WITH THE FRONT OVERHEAD. RUC                      
 TEMPERATURES APPEARED TO WORK BEST FOR TONIGHT. KEPT CLOSE TO                  
 PREVIOUS FORECAST AND BELOW MOS GUIDANCE MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.               
 INCREASED TUESDAY NIGHT SLIGHTLY BUT IT MAY STILL BE THE COLDEST               
 NIGHT SO FAR THIS MONTH. DAYTON AND COLUMBUS HAVE BEEN ABOVE NORMAL            
 EVERY DAY SINCE DECEMBER 9...BUT THE STREAK MAY END ON TUESDAY.                
 RIVER FLOODING PROBLEMS PERSIST...THOUGH LAST NIGHT`S RAINFALL WAS             
 NOT AS GREAT AS EXPECTED AND RIVER LEVELS ARE NOT FORECAST TO BE AS            
 HIGH AS PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT. RIVERS FOR WHICH FLOOD WARNINGS HAVE               
 BEEN ISSUED INCLUDE THE SCIOTO RIVER AT CIRCLEVILLE AND                        
 PIKETON...THE GREAT MIAMI RIVER AT SIDNEY AND MIAMITOWN...THE                  
 HOCKING RIVER AT ENTERPRISE...AND THE OHIO BRUSH CREEK AT WEST UNION.          
 CONIGLIO                                                                       
 LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...                                        
 ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD SE BECOMING CENTERED OVER OHIO                   
 ON WED IN NWRLY FLOW ALOFT. THIS HIGH WL PROVIDE DRY WX AND COLDER             
 TEMPS INTO THURSDAY. ARCTIC AIRMASS VERY DRY AND HAVE KNOCKED DOWN             
 SKY COVER AND GENERALLY PREFER TEMPS AT OR SLIGHTLY COLDER THAN GUID           
 VALUES.                                                                        
 IN SPLIT FLO REGIME CONFIDENCE ON PRECIP EVENTS AND TIMING IS                  
 NOT HIGH. WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE OFF TO THE EAST ON THU FLO                    
 TO BACK WITH WAA PATTERN DEVELOPING. PRECIP POSSIBLE AS EARLY AS               
 THU...BUT WITH OHIO BTWN SRN AND NRN STREAM MOISTURE...WL MAINTAIN             
 A DRY FCST. HAVE HELD BACK THE INTRODUCTION OF PRECIP UNTIL FRIDAY             
 MORNING. MODELS SHOWING SRN MSTR ADVECTING NEWD AHD OF NRN FRONTAL             
 SYSTEM. AT THIS TIME HAVE ONLY OPTD FOR SLIGHT CHC POPS AND BASED              
 ON TOP DOWN APPROACH EXPECT SNOW NORTH AND RAIN AND SNOW SOUTH.                
 THE AREA LOOKS TO DRY OUT LATER ON FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SAT WITH                  
 SFC HI PRESSURE BUILDING BACK IN WITH NWRLY FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPING.             
 &&                                                                             
 .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                            
 OH...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR OHZ026-034-035-042>046-            
      051>056-060>065-070>074-077>082-088.                                      
 KY...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR KYZ089>100.                        
 IN...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR INZ050-058-059-066-073>            
      075-080.                                                                  
 &&                                                                             
 $$                                                                             
</pre> oh                                                                       

 AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                       
 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA                                      
 1119 AM EST MON JAN 15 2007                                                    
 .UPDATE...                                                                     
 ISSUED AN UPDATE TO REMOVE ALL MEASURABLE PRECIP FOR THE NEXT                  
 SEVERAL HOURS. MID LEVEL DRY SLOT HAS MOVED OVERHEAD AND ENDED                 
 RAINFALL ACROSS THE REGION. GIVEN DEEP LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FIELD AND            
 WEAK LOW LEVEL LIFT IN PLACE...WILL MENTION PATCHY DRIZZLE THROUGH             
 MID AFTERNOON FOR MOST AREAS...PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE IN AREAS                
 WHICH REMAIN BELOW FREEZING. BY LATER THIS AFTERNOON...EXPANSIVE               
 AREA OF LIGHT SNOW SHOWN ON UPSTREAM RADARS OVER WISCONSIN MAY REACH           
 INTO THE NW CWA AS MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS SHIFTS EAST AND LOW LEVEL             
 ARCTIC COLD FRONT APPROACHES. HAVE CONTINUED WITH LIKELY POPS LATE             
 THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE NW COUNTIES AND WORDED AS LIGHT SNOW LIKELY.           
 OTHERWISE MAIN CONCERN IS LAKE EFFECT SNOW POTENTIAL. STILL LOOKING            
 LIKE A SIGNIFICANT EVENT TONIGHT INTO TUE. WILL PERUSE FULL 12Z                
 MODEL SUITE BEFORE MAKING ANY CHANGES...BUT AT EARLY GLANCE IT                 
 APPEARS WARNINGS WILL BE NEEDED FOR A PORTION OF THE WATCH AREA AS A           
 MAJOR SINGLE BAND DEVELOPS IN RESPONSE TO CONVERGENT CYCLONIC FLOW             
 DOWN THE MAJOR AXIS OF LAKE MICHIGAN.                                          
 &&                                                                             
 .PREV DISCUSSION...                                                            
 AVIATION...                                                                    
 RADAR SHOWING PCPN ENDING AT BOTH SITES. SOME LIGHT DRIZZLE OR                 
 FLURRIES POSSIBLE THIS MORNING. WRAP AROUND MOISTURE THIS AFTERNOON            
 WITH SHORT WAVE MAY BRING SNOW SHOWERS BACK TO THE AREA WITH COLD              
 AIR ADVECTION. BEEN A BIT MORE OPTIMISTIC WITH VIS. LAKE EFFECT SNOW           
 SHOWERS TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY AT KSBN. DROPPED VIS TO 1SM THERE BUT             
 LOWER RESTRICTIONS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE AND EXPECTED. WILL REFINE AS             
 EVENT DRAWS CLOSER AND SNOW BAND BECOMES EVIDENT ON RADAR.                     
 SHORT TERM...                                                                  
 TODAY AND TONIGHT...                                                           
 ...SIGNIFICANT LAKE EFFECT SNOW POSSIBLE TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...                
 NUMEROUS ISSUES IN THE SHORT TERM BEGINNING WITH ONGOING HEADLINES             
 AND ENDING WITH HEAVY LAKE EFFECT SNOW POTENTIAL TONIGHT INTO                  
 TUESDAY.                                                                       
 AS WE HAVE BEEN SAYING FOR DAYS...SURFACE LOW IS TRACKING WELL                 
 NORTHWEST OF WHERE MODELS HAD BEEN INDICATING...CURRENTLY NEAR KBMG            
 IN SOUTH CENTRAL INDIANA AT 07Z. THIS IS FURTHER NORTH THAN EVEN THE           
 NAM-WRF BUT CLOSE TO RUC40. LATEST 3HR PRESSURE FALLS ARE CENTERED             
 ACROSS NORTHEAST INDIANA AND INTO NORTHWEST OHIO...INDICATING LOW              
 WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK NORTHEAST. SINCE WE HAVE BEEN EXPECTING                 
 THIS...CURRENT GRIDS ARE IN RELATIVELY GOOD SHAPE.                             
 SURFACE TEMPERATURES HOVERING NEAR 30 ACROSS FAR NORTH WHERE WARNING           
 IS IN PLACE...RIGHT AROUND 32 IN ADVISORY AREA...AND 33 TO 35 IN               
 SOUTH WITH MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN. EXPECT TEMPS TO RISE MAYBE A                
 DEGREE IN THE NORTH THIS MORNING BUT SEVERAL DEGREES IN THE                    
 SOUTHEAST AS SURFACE LOW TRACKS TO NEAR KAOH AND WARM AIR SURGES               
 NORTH. RUC40 HAS A GOOD HANDLE ON SURFACE LOW AND TEMPS SO USED THIS           
 ALONG WITH ETA12 FOR TEMPS TODAY. PLAN ON LEAVING HEADLINES AS IS              
 WITH INITIAL ISSUANCE GIVEN WIDESPREAD RAIN AND FREEZING RAIN STILL            
 ACROSS ENTIRE AREA. EXPECT PCPN TO DIMINISH IN WEST SHORTLY WITH               
 DECREASING TREND ACROSS CWA THIS MORNING. COLDER AIR ALREADY MAKING            
 A MOVE WITH SURFACE OBS IN WESTERN MICHIGAN SHOWING FALLING TEMPS              
 AND NORTH WINDS. EXPECT RESIDUAL DRIZZLE OR FREEZING DRIZZLE LATER             
 IN THE MORNING THEN LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES THIS AFTERNOON. NOT GOING           
 TO GET THAT DETAILED WITH GRIDS. WILL TRANSITION FROM CURRENT RAIN             
 TO LIGHT SNOW CHANCES THIS AFTERNOON. HAVE ISSUED SEVERAL FLOOD                
 WARNINGS FOR RIVERS EARLY THIS MORNING. WILL HOLD ONTO FLOOD WATCH             
 UNTIL RAIN ENDS.                                                               
 FOCUS THEN SHIFTS TO LAKE EFFECT POTENTIAL TONIGHT AND INTO TUESDAY.           
 AS SURFACE LOW MOVES EAST...ARCTIC AIR PLUNGES INTO FORECAST AREA              
 WITH 850MB TEMPS DROPPING TO -12 TO -14C TONIGHT AND TO NEAR -16C ON           
 TUESDAY. THIS COUPLED WITH WARM LAKE TEMPERATURES AROUND 5C YIELDS             
 DELTA T VALUES AROUND 20C. THIS EXTREME INSTABILITY WILL BE COUPLED            
 WITH HIGH LAKE INDUCED EQUILIBRIUM LEVELS AROUND 10K FEET AND LAKE             
 INDUCED CAPE NEARING 600 J/KG TUE MORNING. SYNOPTIC SETUP REMAINS              
 FAVORABLE WITH SURFACE LOW TO THE EAST AND ARCTIC HIGH IN THE PLAINS           
 CREATING A NEARLY NORTHERLY CYCLONIC FETCH DOWN LENGTH OF LAKE                 
 MICHIGAN. THIS USUALLY ALLOWS PRECONDITIONING FROM LAKE SUPERIOR AS            
 WELL. NAM-WRF AND EVEN GFS CONTINUE TO PICK UP ON THESE FEATURES AND           
 GENERATE STRONG 925-850MB OMEGA FROM 00Z TUE THROUGH 18Z TUE. THE              
 NEGATIVE FACTOR REMAINS THE WIND SHEAR NEAR THE TOP OF THE MIXED               
 LAYER...AS NOTED BY PREVIOUS DAY SHIFT. 700MB WIND COMPONENT STILL             
 REMAINS MORE WESTERLY THAN LOWER LEVELS. ALSO A BIT CONCERNED FOR              
 UPSTREAM SHORT WAVE THAT DROPS SOUTH LATE TONIGHT. THESE WAVES HAVE            
 BEEN KNOWN TO DISRUPT BANDS AND LIMIT HEAVY ACCUMULATIONS. AFTER               
 WEIGHING ALL THE PROS AND CONS...FEEL ENOUGH ELEMENTS IN PLACE TO              
 WARRANT A LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH FOR TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. GIVEN THE            
 NAM-WRF PLUME ANALYSIS SHOWING POTENTIAL WAVY BAND AND TO ACCOUNT              
 FOR MODELS WESTWARD BIAS...HAVE MADE THE WATCH AREA FAIRLY                     
 LARGE...ENCOMPASSING WESTERN AREAS FOR POTENTIAL SINGLE BAND DOWN              
 THE LENGTH OF LAKE...BUT ALSO ADDING CASS...ELKHART AND KOSCIUSKO              
 GIVEN PLUME ANALYSIS OF 925-850MB OMEGA FIELDS AND MODEL BIAS. WILL            
 HIT POTENTIAL FOR 6 TO 10 INCHES WITH THIS EVENT GIVEN THE MOVEMENT            
 OF SINGLE BAND. HOWEVER...IF THIS TYPE I BAND IS REALIZED AND                  
 BECOMES STATIONARY FOR A PERIOD OF TIME...LOCALLY HEAVIER AMOUNTS              
 WILL BE POSSIBLE.                                                              
 LONG TERM...                                                                   
 TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOULD BE                      
 DIMINISHING TUESDAY NIGHT AS INVERSION HEIGHTS FALL AND AS WINDS               
 BACK TO THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST. THE GFS CONTINUES TO RETREAT ON THE            
 VERY COLD AIR ADVERTISED DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK ON SEVERAL              
 PREVIOUS RUNS. HIGHS WEDNESDAY WERE IN THE LOWER 20S ON PREVIOUS MEX           
 MOS...BUT NOW IN THE MID 30S. CAN NOT SEEM TO GET ANY COLD IN HERE             
 AS THE LAST DAY BELOW NORMAL WAS DECEMBER 9. NEXT UPPER TROF WILL              
 DROP RAPIDLY SOUTH LATE THIS WEEK OVER THE WEST CONUS AS THE                   
 DOWNSTREAM TROF OVER THE MIDWEST MOVES RAPIDLY EAST. HAVE RAISED               
 HIGH AND LOWS TEMPS SOME TO ACCOMMODATE THIS PATTERN. THE NEXT                 
 CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION WILL ARRIVE LATE IN THE WEEK AS THIS NEXT             
 SYSTEM MOVES EAST INTO THE FORECAST AREA. THE GFS AND ECMWF WERE               
 BRINGING COLDER AIR IN FRIDAY...WITH 850 MB TEMP DROPPING TO -20C BY           
 LATE IN THE DAY. LAKE EFFECT SNOW IN ONGOING GRIDS/ZFP LOOKS GOOD.             
 ONCE AGAIN...THIS TROF SHOULD LIFT EAST AS ANOTHER DEEP TROF DIGS              
 OVER THE WESTERN CONUS. THE ECMWF WAS EVEN INDICATING SOME NEGATIVE            
 TILT WITH THIS TROF...BUT THE MAIN WEATHER INDICATION FOR THE                  
 FORECAST AREA WILL BE LAKE EFFECT ENDING LATE SATURDAY WITH                    
 TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO NORMAL BY SUNDAY. NEW CANADIAN ENSEMBLE              
 MEMBERS SUPPORT THIS PATTERN WITH A BROAD TROF OVER THE CENTRAL                
 UNITED STATES.                                                                 
 &&                                                                             
 .IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                            
 IN...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY                  
      AFTERNOON FOR INZ003-INZ004-INZ005-INZ012-INZ014-INZ016.                  
 MI...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY                  
      AFTERNOON FOR MIZ077-MIZ078.                                              
 OH...NONE.                                                                     
 LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EST TUESDAY FOR LMZ043-LMZ046.            
 &&                                                                             
 $$                                                                             
 UPDATE...HITCHCOCK                                                             
 SHORT TERM/AVIATION...LASHLEY                                                  
 LONG TERM...SKIPPER                                                            
</pre> in                                                                       

 AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                       
 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA                                      
 640 AM EST MON JAN 15 2007                                                     
 .AVIATION...                                                                   
 RADAR SHOWING PCPN ENDING AT BOTH SITES. SOME LIGHT DRIZZLE OR                 
 FLURRIES POSSIBLE THIS MORNING. WRAP AROUND MOISTURE THIS AFTERNOON            
 WITH SHORT WAVE MAY BRING SNOW SHOWERS BACK TO THE AREA WITH COLD              
 AIR ADVECTION. BEEN A BIT MORE OPTIMISTIC WITH VIS. LAKE EFFECT SNOW           
 SHOWERS TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY AT KSBN. DROPPED VIS TO 1SM THERE BUT             
 LOWER RESTRICTIONS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE AND EXPECTED. WILL REFINE AS             
 EVENT DRAWS CLOSER AND SNOW BAND BECOMES EVIDENT ON RADAR.                     
 &&                                                                             
 .UPDATE...                                                                     
 TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED ABOVE FREEZING MOST AREAS. SURFACE LOW                
 TRACKING TO NEAR KAOH AT 11Z AND ALLOWED WARM SURGE OF AIR INTO THE            
 AREA. FAR NORTHEAST HANGING AROUND 32F WITH RAIN ENDING. WITH MOST             
 ICING OVER AND MOST TEMPS ABOVE FREEZING...HAVE CANCELLED HEADLINES.           
 WILL HAVE TO SEE HOW MUCH FREEZING DRIZZLE DEVELOPS FOR ANY POSSIBLE           
 ADVISORIES...BUT TEMPS HOVERING NEAR 32 TO 34 AND POTENT DRY                   
 SLOT...THIS MAY NOT BE AN ISSUE. COLD AIR ADVECTION THIS MORNING               
 SHOULD COOL COLUMN ENOUGH FOR CHANGEOVER TO FLURRIES OR LIGHT SNOW             
 WITH NEXT SHORT WAVE. CONTINUED FLOOD WATCH WHERE RAIN STILL                   
 OCCURRING. SOUTHEAST AREAS HAVE SEEN MOST RAIN AND WILL EXPERIENCE             
 MOST PROBLEMS.                                                                 
 &&                                                                             
 .SHORT TERM...                                                                 
 TODAY AND TONIGHT...                                                           
 ...SIGNIFICANT LAKE EFFECT SNOW POSSIBLE TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...                
 NUMEROUS ISSUES IN THE SHORT TERM BEGINNING WITH ONGOING HEADLINES             
 AND ENDING WITH HEAVY LAKE EFFECT SNOW POTENTIAL TONIGHT INTO                  
 TUESDAY.                                                                       
 AS WE HAVE BEEN SAYING FOR DAYS...SURFACE LOW IS TRACKING WELL                 
 NORTHWEST OF WHERE MODELS HAD BEEN INDICATING...CURRENTLY NEAR KBMG            
 IN SOUTH CENTRAL INDIANA AT 07Z. THIS IS FURTHER NORTH THAN EVEN THE           
 NAM-WRF BUT CLOSE TO RUC40. LATEST 3HR PRESSURE FALLS ARE CENTERED             
 ACROSS NORTHEAST INDIANA AND INTO NORTHWEST OHIO...INDICATING LOW              
 WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK NORTHEAST. SINCE WE HAVE BEEN EXPECTING                 
 THIS...CURRENT GRIDS ARE IN RELATIVELY GOOD SHAPE.                             
 SURFACE TEMPERATURES HOVERING NEAR 30 ACROSS FAR NORTH WHERE WARNING           
 IS IN PLACE...RIGHT AROUND 32 IN ADVISORY AREA...AND 33 TO 35 IN               
 SOUTH WITH MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN. EXPECT TEMPS TO RISE MAYBE A                
 DEGREE IN THE NORTH THIS MORNING BUT SEVERAL DEGREES IN THE                    
 SOUTHEAST AS SURFACE LOW TRACKS TO NEAR KAOH AND WARM AIR SURGES               
 NORTH. RUC40 HAS A GOOD HANDLE ON SURFACE LOW AND TEMPS SO USED THIS           
 ALONG WITH ETA12 FOR TEMPS TODAY. PLAN ON LEAVING HEADLINES AS IS              
 WITH INITIAL ISSUANCE GIVEN WIDESPREAD RAIN AND FREEZING RAIN STILL            
 ACROSS ENTIRE AREA. EXPECT PCPN TO DIMINISH IN WEST SHORTLY WITH               
 DECREASING TREND ACROSS CWA THIS MORNING. COLDER AIR ALREADY MAKING            
 A MOVE WITH SURFACE OBS IN WESTERN MICHIGAN SHOWING FALLING TEMPS              
 AND NORTH WINDS. EXPECT RESIDUAL DRIZZLE OR FREEZING DRIZZLE LATER             
 IN THE MORNING THEN LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES THIS AFTERNOON. NOT GOING           
 TO GET THAT DETAILED WITH GRIDS. WILL TRANSITION FROM CURRENT RAIN             
 TO LIGHT SNOW CHANCES THIS AFTERNOON. HAVE ISSUED SEVERAL FLOOD                
 WARNINGS FOR RIVERS EARLY THIS MORNING. WILL HOLD ONTO FLOOD WATCH             
 UNTIL RAIN ENDS.                                                               
 FOCUS THEN SHIFTS TO LAKE EFFECT POTENTIAL TONIGHT AND INTO TUESDAY.           
 AS SURFACE LOW MOVES EAST...ARCTIC AIR PLUNGES INTO FORECAST AREA              
 WITH 850MB TEMPS DROPPING TO -12 TO -14C TONIGHT AND TO NEAR -16C ON           
 TUESDAY. THIS COUPLED WITH WARM LAKE TEMPERATURES AROUND 5C YIELDS             
 DELTA T VALUES AROUND 20C. THIS EXTREME INSTABILITY WILL BE COUPLED            
 WITH HIGH LAKE INDUCED EQUILIBRIUM LEVELS AROUND 10K FEET AND LAKE             
 INDUCED CAPE NEARING 600 J/KG TUE MORNING. SYNOPTIC SETUP REMAINS              
 FAVORABLE WITH SURFACE LOW TO THE EAST AND ARCTIC HIGH IN THE PLAINS           
 CREATING A NEARLY NORTHERLY CYCLONIC FETCH DOWN LENGTH OF LAKE                 
 MICHIGAN. THIS USUALLY ALLOWS PRECONDITIONING FROM LAKE SUPERIOR AS            
 WELL. NAM-WRF AND EVEN GFS CONTINUE TO PICK UP ON THESE FEATURES AND           
 GENERATE STRONG 925-850MB OMEGA FROM 00Z TUE THROUGH 18Z TUE. THE              
 NEGATIVE FACTOR REMAINS THE WIND SHEAR NEAR THE TOP OF THE MIXED               
 LAYER...AS NOTED BY PREVIOUS DAY SHIFT. 700MB WIND COMPONENT STILL             
 REMAINS MORE WESTERLY THAN LOWER LEVELS. ALSO A BIT CONCERNED FOR              
 UPSTREAM SHORT WAVE THAT DROPS SOUTH LATE TONIGHT. THESE WAVES HAVE            
 BEEN KNOWN TO DISRUPT BANDS AND LIMIT HEAVY ACCUMULATIONS. AFTER               
 WEIGHING ALL THE PROS AND CONS...FEEL ENOUGH ELEMENTS IN PLACE TO              
 WARRANT A LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH FOR TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. GIVEN THE            
 NAM-WRF PLUME ANALYSIS SHOWING POTENTIAL WAVY BAND AND TO ACCOUNT              
 FOR MODELS WESTWARD BIAS...HAVE MADE THE WATCH AREA FAIRLY                     
 LARGE...ENCOMPASSING WESTERN AREAS FOR POTENTIAL SINGLE BAND DOWN              
 THE LENGTH OF LAKE...BUT ALSO ADDING CASS...ELKHART AND KOSCIUSKO              
 GIVEN PLUME ANALYSIS OF 925-850MB OMEGA FIELDS AND MODEL BIAS. WILL            
 HIT POTENTIAL FOR 6 TO 10 INCHES WITH THIS EVENT GIVEN THE MOVEMENT            
 OF SINGLE BAND. HOWEVER...IF THIS TYPE I BAND IS REALIZED AND                  
 BECOMES STATIONARY FOR A PERIOD OF TIME...LOCALLY HEAVIER AMOUNTS              
 WILL BE POSSIBLE.                                                              
 &&                                                                             
 .LONG TERM...                                                                  
 TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOULD BE                      
 DIMINISHING TUESDAY NIGHT AS INVERSION HEIGHTS FALL AND AS WINDS               
 BACK TO THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST. THE GFS CONTINUES TO RETREAT ON THE            
 VERY COLD AIR ADVERTISED DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK ON SEVERAL              
 PREVIOUS RUNS. HIGHS WEDNESDAY WERE IN THE LOWER 20S ON PREVIOUS MEX           
 MOS...BUT NOW IN THE MID 30S. CAN NOT SEEM TO GET ANY COLD IN HERE             
 AS THE LAST DAY BELOW NORMAL WAS DECEMBER 9. NEXT UPPER TROF WILL              
 DROP RAPIDLY SOUTH LATE THIS WEEK OVER THE WEST CONUS AS THE                   
 DOWNSTREAM TROF OVER THE MIDWEST MOVES RAPIDLY EAST. HAVE RAISED               
 HIGH AND LOWS TEMPS SOME TO ACCOMMODATE THIS PATTERN. THE NEXT                 
 CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION WILL ARRIVE LATE IN THE WEEK AS THIS NEXT             
 SYSTEM MOVES EAST INTO THE FORECAST AREA. THE GFS AND ECMWF WERE               
 BRINGING COLDER AIR IN FRIDAY...WITH 850 MB TEMP DROPPING TO -20C BY           
 LATE IN THE DAY. LAKE EFFECT SNOW IN ONGOING GRIDS/ZFP LOOKS GOOD.             
 ONCE AGAIN...THIS TROF SHOULD LIFT EAST AS ANOTHER DEEP TROF DIGS              
 OVER THE WESTERN CONUS. THE ECMWF WAS EVEN INDICATING SOME NEGATIVE            
 TILT WITH THIS TROF...BUT THE MAIN WEATHER INDICATION FOR THE                  
 FORECAST AREA WILL BE LAKE EFFECT ENDING LATE SATURDAY WITH                    
 TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO NORMAL BY SUNDAY. NEW CANADIAN ENSEMBLE              
 MEMBERS SUPPORT THIS PATTERN WITH A BROAD TROF OVER THE CENTRAL                
 UNITED STATES.                                                                 
 &&                                                                             
 .IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                            
 IN...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR                             
      INZ023-INZ024-INZ025-INZ026-INZ027-INZ032-INZ033-INZ034.                  
      LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY                  
      AFTERNOON FOR INZ003-INZ004-INZ005-INZ012-INZ014-INZ016.                  
 MI...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY                  
      AFTERNOON FOR MIZ077-MIZ078.                                              
 OH...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR OHZ016-OHZ024-              
      OHZ025.                                                                   
 LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EST TUESDAY FOR LMZ043-LMZ046.            
 &&                                                                             
 $$                                                                             
 SHORT TERM/AVIATION...LASHLEY                                                  
 LONG TERM...SKIPPER                                                            
</pre> in                                                                       

 AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                       
 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI                                    
 801 AM EST MON JAN 15 2007                                                     
 .UPDATE...                                                                     
 BASED ON RADAR RETURNS...WILL BE DROPPING ALL WINTER WEATHER                   
 HEADLINES WITHIN THE NEXT HALF HOUR. THE REMAINDER OF THE                      
 PRECIPITATION TODAY WILL REMAIN LIGHT.                                         
 &&                                                                             
 .PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 629 AM EST MON JAN 15 2007                           
 AVIATION...                                                                    
 THE BACK EDGE OF THE WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION IS MOVING INTO SE MI             
 AS OF 11Z. BASED ON EXTRAPOLATION FROM RADAR...THE WIDESPREAD                  
 PRECIP WILL EXIT TO THE EAST OF THE TAF SITES SHORTLY AFTER 12Z.               
 BASED ON MODEL SOUNDINGS...WOULD EXPECT SOME DRIZZLE/FREEZING                  
 DRIZZLE IN THE WAKE OF THE WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION. MBS WILL BE               
 INTO THE COLDER AIR AND MAY BE ABLE TO REMAIN LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES              
 INTO THE AFTERNOON. DTW/DET HAVE BEEN HOVERING AROUND 33/34                    
 DEGREES FOR SEVERAL HOURS. THE TEMPERATURES AROUND DETROIT WILL                
 FALL TO THE FREEZING MARK OR SLIGHTLY LOWER BY 15Z AS THE COLDER               
 AIR STARTS FILTERING INTO SE MICHIGAN IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING             
 SURFACE LOW OVER OHIO. SO THERE IS STILL A CHANCE FOR SOME                     
 FREEZING DRIZZLE AT DETROIT LATER THIS MORNING.                                
 WIDESPREAD IFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE                    
 MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON. COLDER AND DRIER AIR WILL ADVANCE              
 INTO THE REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON. CEILINGS WILL GRADUALLY                  
 RESPOND BY LIFTING TO THE VFR CATEGORY BY 20Z.                                 
 &&                                                                             
 .PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 442 AM EST MON JAN 15 2007                           
 SHORT TERM...TODAY                                                             
 THE 09Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A 1009MB LOW NEAR INDIANAPOLIS...               
 WHICH IS ASSOCIATED WITH A MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE OVER THE MID                   
 MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THIS WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW            
 IN ADVANCE OF THE LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL               
 PLAINS. MID LEVEL FRONTAL FORCING WITHIN THE ENTRANCE REGION OF A              
 170KT UPPER LEVEL JET OVER SOUTHERN QUEBEC HAS PROVIDED WIDESPREAD             
 PRECIPITATION ACROSS SOUTHERN MICHIGAN OVERNIGHT. LOW LEVEL                    
 SOUTHERLY FLOW HAS ADVECTED A SIGNIFICANT ENOUGH WEDGE OF WARM AIR             
 ALOFT TO ALLOW MOST OF THE PRECIP ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE I 69                  
 CORRIDOR TO FALL AS FREEZING RAIN...WITH SNOW AND SLEET MAINLY                 
 CONFINED TO THE SAGINAW VALLEY AND NORTHERN THUMB.                             
 SURFACE OBSERVATIONS ACROSS SE MI SHOW THE FREEZING LINE EXTENDING             
 ALONG A DETROIT TO ADRIAN LINE. IT APPEARS FROM THE SURFACE                    
 OBSERVATIONS THAT THE WEAK LOW LEVEL COLD AIR ADVECTION HAS NOT BEEN           
 ABLE TO OVERCOME THE LATENT HEAT RELEASE DUE TO FREEZING NEAR THE              
 SURFACE. THUS TEMPS HAVE INCREASED A COUPLE DEGREES OVER THE LAST              
 TWO HOURS. IN FACT...MOST OF WAYNE AND MONROE COUNTIES ARE NOW                 
 ABOVE FREEZING. THE LATEST AREA RADAR DATA SHOWS THE BACK EDGE OF              
 THE PRECIP NOW MOVING INTO SW LOWER MI...SUPPORTING THE FASTER GFS             
 AND RUC SOLUTIONS. BASED ON MODEL SOUNDINGS...PRECIP SHOULD                    
 TRANSITION TO FREEZING DRIZZLE BETWEEN 12Z AND 15Z AS MOISTURE                 
 ABOVE -10 C IS STRIPPED AWAY. THE NAM HOWEVER SHOWS SOME LINGERING             
 FRONTOGENESIS IN THE 700-600MB LAYER ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF               
 THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH 15Z WHICH CAN NOT BE RULED OUT GIVEN THE             
 STRENGTH OF THE UPPER JET.                                                     
 WITH THE EXCEPTION OF WAYNE AND MONROE COUNTIES...WILL KEEP THE                
 WARNINGS GOING THROUGH THE REST OF THE MORNING. WARNINGS MAY BE ABLE           
 TO BE DOWNGRADED TO FREEZING DRIZZLE ADVISORIES LATE THIS MORNING.             
 HAVE RECEIVED SEVERAL REPORTS OF QUARTER TO HALF INCH ICE                      
 ACCUMULATIONS. WITH SURFACE TEMPS HOVERING IN THE LOWER 30S...THE              
 MOST SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS HAVE BEEN ON ELEVATED SURFACES LIKE             
 TREES AND POWER LINES. THE MAIN UPDATE TO THE HEADLINES THIS MORNING           
 WAS TO ADJUST FOR MORE FREEZING RAIN FROM FNT TO PHN AS A LITTLE               
 MORE WARM AIR ALOFT ADVECTED INTO THE FORECAST AREA THAN EARLIER               
 MODELS SUGGESTED. THE ONLY OTHER MAJOR ADJUSTMENTS WAS TO DOWNGRADE            
 MONROE AND WAYNE COUNTIES TO AN ADVISORY WITH CURRENT TEMPS NOW                
 ABOVE FREEZING AT DTW/DET/TTF/DUH. CURRENT TRENDS ALSO SUPPORT A               
 LITTLE LOWER SNOWFALL TOTALS ACROSS THE SAGINAW VALLEY AND THUMB               
 REGION.                                                                        
 LOW LEVEL COLD AIR ADVECTION AND DEEPER MOISTURE WILL WRAP BACK INTO           
 THE AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON...TRANSITIONING ANY LINGERING DRIZZLE             
 TO LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS. WINDS WILL INCREASE TO THE 10 TO 20 MPH RANGE           
 BY THIS AFTERNOON...MAINLY NORTH OF M 59...WHICH MAY CAUSE SOME                
 ADDITIONAL PROBLEMS WITH TREES AND POWER LINES WEIGHTED DOWN WITH              
 ICE.                                                                           
 LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY                                        
 BY MONDAY NIGHT THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT BROUGHT A WINTER STORM            
 TO LOWER MICHIGAN WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE NEW ENGLAND                        
 STATES...WITH A THERMAL TROUGH EXTENDING BACK ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES           
 REGION. THE NAM SEEMS TO HAVE A BETTER HANDLE ON SHORTWAVE ENERGY              
 DROPPING SOUTH OUT OF CANADA BASED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND                  
 REINFORCES THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE REGION. A NUMBER OF                 
 SHORTWAVES WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. LIGHT             
 SNOW WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING ON MONDAY BEFORE SNOW SHOWERS              
 BECOME PRIMARILY DRIVEN BY LAKE EFFECT AND DECREASE IN COVERAGE                
 OVERNIGHT. THE NAM12 DOES INDICATE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE OVER THE              
 THUMB...SHIFTING OFFSHORE BY LATE AT NIGHT. GIVEN THE SHIFTING                 
 TRAJECTORY FOR LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS ...WILL KEEP ACCUMULATIONS ON THE           
 LOW SIDE IN THE 1-3 INCH RANGE.                                                
 ON TUESDAY A WEAK 850MB TROUGH COMBINED WITH CONTINUED CYCLONIC FLOW           
 AT THE SURFACE SHOULD YIELD NUMEROUS SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA.             
 THE SHOWERY NATURE OF THE SNOW WILL MAKE ACCUMULATIONS VARY                    
 WIDELY...BUT WILL EXPECT ACCUMULATIONS TO GENERALLY REMAIN AROUND AN           
 INCH OR LESS. INSTABILITY WILL PEAK TUESDAY EVENING AS THE UPPER               
 LEVEL COLD POOL MOVES SOUTH OVER THE AREA. MODEL SOUNDINGS OVER                
 SOUTHERN LAKE HURON INDICATE 850 J/KG OF LAKE INDUCED CAPE AND                 
 EQUILIBRIUM LEVELS OVER 14000 FEET. WILL EXPECT ANOTHER ROUND OF               
 SNOW SHOWERS AS THE 700MB TROUGH AXIS PASSES AND WILL CONTINUE TO              
 CARRY SOME ADDITIONAL LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS OVER THE THUMB INTO THE              
 OVERNIGHT HOURS.                                                               
 SKIES WILL START TO SCATTER OUT LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE            
 BUILDS FROM THE SOUTHWEST. WILL GO SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW GUIDANCE              
 OVER OUR SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES THAT ARE CLOSER TO THE SURFACE HIGH.            
 THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY WITH WARM              
 AIR ADVECTION BEGINNING AS SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW INCREASES ON THE WEST            
 SIDE OF THE SURFACE HIGH. MODELS ADVERTISE THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL                
 TROUGH TO QUICKLY APPROACH BY THE END OF THE WEEK WITH A NUMBER OF             
 WAVES MOVING OVER THE REGION IN THE THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY TIME                 
 FRAME. THIS WILL BRING THE NEXT CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW AND ANOTHER               
 COLD FRONT TO REINFORCE THE COLD AIR OVER THE REGION.                          
 &&                                                                             
 .DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                            
 MI...NONE.                                                                     
 LAKE HURON...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...SAGINAW BAY UNTIL 5 PM TUESDAY.            
      SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...NEARSHORE WATERS FROM PORT AUSTIN TO PORT          
      HURON UNTIL 5 AM WEDNESDAY.                                               
 LAKE ST CLAIR...ICE STORM WARNING...LCZ422-LCZ460 UNTIL NOON MONDAY.           
 MI WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...UNTIL 5 PM MONDAY.             
 &&                                                                             
 $$                                                                             
 AVIATION...CONSIDINE                                                           
 SHORT TERM...CONSIDINE                                                         
 LONG TERM....KAHL                                                              
 YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE           
 AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).                                   
</pre> mi                                                                       

 AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                       
 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI                                    
 629 AM EST MON JAN 15 2007                                                     
 .AVIATION...                                                                   
 THE BACK EDGE OF THE WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION IS MOVING INTO SE MI             
 AS OF 11Z. BASED ON EXTRAPOLATION FROM RADAR...THE WIDESPREAD                  
 PRECIP WILL EXIT TO THE EAST OF THE TAF SITES SHORTLY AFTER 12Z.               
 BASED ON MODEL SOUNDINGS...WOULD EXPECT SOME DRIZZLE/FREEZING                  
 DRIZZLE IN THE WAKE OF THE WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION. MBS WILL BE               
 INTO THE COLDER AIR AND MAY BE ABLE TO REMAIN LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES              
 INTO THE AFTERNOON. DTW/DET HAVE BEEN HOVERING AROUND 33/34                    
 DEGREES FOR SEVERAL HOURS. THE TEMPERATURES AROUND DETROIT WILL                
 FALL TO THE FREEZING MARK OR SLIGHTLY LOWER BY 15Z AS THE COLDER               
 AIR STARTS FILTERING INTO SE MICHIGAN IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING             
 SURFACE LOW OVER OHIO. SO THERE IS STILL A CHANCE FOR SOME                     
 FREEZING DRIZZLE AT DETROIT LATER THIS MORNING.                                
 WIDESPREAD IFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE                    
 MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON. COLDER AND DRIER AIR WILL ADVANCE              
 INTO THE REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON. CEILINGS WILL GRADUALLY                  
 RESPOND BY LIFTING TO THE VFR CATEGORY BY 20Z.                                 
 &&                                                                             
 .PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 442 AM EST MON JAN 15 2007                           
 SHORT TERM...TODAY                                                             
 THE 09Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A 1009MB LOW NEAR INDIANAPOLIS...               
 WHICH IS ASSOCIATED WITH A MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE OVER THE MID                   
 MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THIS WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW            
 IN ADVANCE OF THE LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL               
 PLAINS. MID LEVEL FRONTAL FORCING WITHIN THE ENTRANCE REGION OF A              
 170KT UPPER LEVEL JET OVER SOUTHERN QUEBEC HAS PROVIDED WIDESPREAD             
 PRECIPITATION ACROSS SOUTHERN MICHIGAN OVERNIGHT. LOW LEVEL                    
 SOUTHERLY FLOW HAS ADVECTED A SIGNIFICANT ENOUGH WEDGE OF WARM AIR             
 ALOFT TO ALLOW MOST OF THE PRECIP ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE I 69                  
 CORRIDOR TO FALL AS FREEZING RAIN...WITH SNOW AND SLEET MAINLY                 
 CONFINED TO THE SAGINAW VALLEY AND NORTHERN THUMB.                             
 SURFACE OBSERVATIONS ACROSS SE MI SHOW THE FREEZING LINE EXTENDING             
 ALONG A DETROIT TO ADRIAN LINE. IT APPEARS FROM THE SURFACE                    
 OBSERVATIONS THAT THE WEAK LOW LEVEL COLD AIR ADVECTION HAS NOT BEEN           
 ABLE TO OVERCOME THE LATENT HEAT RELEASE DUE TO FREEZING NEAR THE              
 SURFACE. THUS TEMPS HAVE INCREASED A COUPLE DEGREES OVER THE LAST              
 TWO HOURS. IN FACT...MOST OF WAYNE AND MONROE COUNTIES ARE NOW                 
 ABOVE FREEZING. THE LATEST AREA RADAR DATA SHOWS THE BACK EDGE OF              
 THE PRECIP NOW MOVING INTO SW LOWER MI...SUPPORTING THE FASTER GFS             
 AND RUC SOLUTIONS. BASED ON MODEL SOUNDINGS...PRECIP SHOULD                    
 TRANSITION TO FREEZING DRIZZLE BETWEEN 12Z AND 15Z AS MOISTURE                 
 ABOVE -10 C IS STRIPPED AWAY. THE NAM HOWEVER SHOWS SOME LINGERING             
 FRONTOGENESIS IN THE 700-600MB LAYER ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF               
 THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH 15Z WHICH CAN NOT BE RULED OUT GIVEN THE             
 STRENGTH OF THE UPPER JET.                                                     
 WITH THE EXCEPTION OF WAYNE AND MONROE COUNTIES...WILL KEEP THE                
 WARNINGS GOING THROUGH THE REST OF THE MORNING. WARNINGS MAY BE ABLE           
 TO BE DOWNGRADED TO FREEZING DRIZZLE ADVISORIES LATE THIS MORNING.             
 HAVE RECEIVED SEVERAL REPORTS OF QUARTER TO HALF INCH ICE                      
 ACCUMULATIONS. WITH SURFACE TEMPS HOVERING IN THE LOWER 30S...THE              
 MOST SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS HAVE BEEN ON ELEVATED SURFACES LIKE             
 TREES AND POWER LINES. THE MAIN UPDATE TO THE HEADLINES THIS MORNING           
 WAS TO ADJUST FOR MORE FREEZING RAIN FROM FNT TO PHN AS A LITTLE               
 MORE WARM AIR ALOFT ADVECTED INTO THE FORECAST AREA THAN EARLIER               
 MODELS SUGGESTED. THE ONLY OTHER MAJOR ADJUSTMENTS WAS TO DOWNGRADE            
 MONROE AND WAYNE COUNTIES TO AN ADVISORY WITH CURRENT TEMPS NOW                
 ABOVE FREEZING AT DTW/DET/TTF/DUH. CURRENT TRENDS ALSO SUPPORT A               
 LITTLE LOWER SNOWFALL TOTALS ACROSS THE SAGINAW VALLEY AND THUMB               
 REGION.                                                                        
 LOW LEVEL COLD AIR ADVECTION AND DEEPER MOISTURE WILL WRAP BACK INTO           
 THE AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON...TRANSITIONING ANY LINGERING DRIZZLE             
 TO LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS. WINDS WILL INCREASE TO THE 10 TO 20 MPH RANGE           
 BY THIS AFTERNOON...MAINLY NORTH OF M 59...WHICH MAY CAUSE SOME                
 ADDITIONAL PROBLEMS WITH TREES AND POWER LINES WEIGHTED DOWN WITH              
 ICE.                                                                           
 LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY                                        
 BY MONDAY NIGHT THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT BROUGHT A WINTER STORM            
 TO LOWER MICHIGAN WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE NEW ENGLAND                        
 STATES...WITH A THERMAL TROUGH EXTENDING BACK ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES           
 REGION. THE NAM SEEMS TO HAVE A BETTER HANDLE ON SHORTWAVE ENERGY              
 DROPPING SOUTH OUT OF CANADA BASED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND                  
 REINFORCES THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE REGION. A NUMBER OF                 
 SHORTWAVES WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. LIGHT             
 SNOW WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING ON MONDAY BEFORE SNOW SHOWERS              
 BECOME PRIMARILY DRIVEN BY LAKE EFFECT AND DECREASE IN COVERAGE                
 OVERNIGHT. THE NAM12 DOES INDICATE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE OVER THE              
 THUMB...SHIFTING OFFSHORE BY LATE AT NIGHT. GIVEN THE SHIFTING                 
 TRAJECTORY FOR LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS ...WILL KEEP ACCUMULATIONS ON THE           
 LOW SIDE IN THE 1-3 INCH RANGE.                                                
 ON TUESDAY A WEAK 850MB TROUGH COMBINED WITH CONTINUED CYCLONIC FLOW           
 AT THE SURFACE SHOULD YIELD NUMEROUS SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA.             
 THE SHOWERY NATURE OF THE SNOW WILL MAKE ACCUMULATIONS VARY                    
 WIDELY...BUT WILL EXPECT ACCUMULATIONS TO GENERALLY REMAIN AROUND AN           
 INCH OR LESS. INSTABILITY WILL PEAK TUESDAY EVENING AS THE UPPER               
 LEVEL COLD POOL MOVES SOUTH OVER THE AREA. MODEL SOUNDINGS OVER                
 SOUTHERN LAKE HURON INDICATE 850 J/KG OF LAKE INDUCED CAPE AND                 
 EQUILIBRIUM LEVELS OVER 14000 FEET. WILL EXPECT ANOTHER ROUND OF               
 SNOW SHOWERS AS THE 700MB TROUGH AXIS PASSES AND WILL CONTINUE TO              
 CARRY SOME ADDITIONAL LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS OVER THE THUMB INTO THE              
 OVERNIGHT HOURS.                                                               
 SKIES WILL START TO SCATTER OUT LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE            
 BUILDS FROM THE SOUTHWEST. WILL GO SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW GUIDANCE              
 OVER OUR SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES THAT ARE CLOSER TO THE SURFACE HIGH.            
 THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY WITH WARM              
 AIR ADVECTION BEGINNING AS SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW INCREASES ON THE WEST            
 SIDE OF THE SURFACE HIGH. MODELS ADVERTISE THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL                
 TROUGH TO QUICKLY APPROACH BY THE END OF THE WEEK WITH A NUMBER OF             
 WAVES MOVING OVER THE REGION IN THE THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY TIME                 
 FRAME. THIS WILL BRING THE NEXT CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW AND ANOTHER               
 COLD FRONT TO REINFORCE THE COLD AIR OVER THE REGION.                          
 &&                                                                             
 .DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                            
 MI...ICE STORM WARNING...MIZ061-MIZ062-MIZ063-MIZ068-MIZ069-MIZ070-            
      MIZ075-MIZ082 UNTIL NOON MONDAY.                                          
      HEAVY SNOW WARNING...MIZ047-MIZ048-MIZ049-MIZ053-MIZ054 UNTIL             
      NOON MONDAY.                                                              
      WINTER STORM WARNING...MIZ055-MIZ060 UNTIL NOON MONDAY.                   
      FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY...MIZ076-MIZ083 UNTIL NOON MONDAY.                 
 LAKE HURON...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...SAGINAW BAY UNTIL 5 PM TUESDAY.            
      SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...NEARSHORE WATERS FROM PORT AUSTIN TO PORT HURON UNT
 LAKE ST CLAIR...ICE STORM WARNING...LCZ422-LCZ460 UNTIL NOON MONDAY.           
 MI WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...UNTIL 5 PM MONDAY.             
 &&                                                                             
 $$                                                                             
 AVIATION...CONSIDINE                                                           
 SHORT TERM...CONSIDINE                                                         
 LONG TERM....KAHL                                                              
 YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE           
 AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).                                   
</pre> mi                                                                       

 AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                       
 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY                                         
 1031 AM EST MON JAN 15 2007                                                    
 .UPDATE...                                                                     
 FOR THE 11 AM UPDATE THE PLAN IS TO LET EXPIRE/CANCEL THE                      
 ADVISORY/WARNINGS FOR STEUBEN, SCHUYLER, TOMPKINS, CORTLAND,                   
 CHENANGO, OTSEGO, DELAWARE, AND SULLIVAN IN NY AND WAYNE/PIKE IN               
 NE PA. THERE MAY BE SOME ISOLD POCKETS PERSISTING IN THESE                     
 AREAS...SPCLY THE WRN CATSKILLS BUT TEMPS CONTINUE THEIR SLOW                  
 CLIMB. WILL LEAVE WARNING UP FOR THE NRN COUNTIES BUT WILL PRBLY               
 BE ABLE TO CANCEL THEM THIS AFTN.                                              
 &&                                                                             
 .PREV DISCUSSION...                                                            
 /ISSUED 822 AM EST MON JAN 15 2007/                                            
 UPDATE...                                                                      
 SFC TEMP ANYLS SHOWS A THERMAL RDG XTNDG FROM THE WYOMING VLY INTO             
 THE SRN TIER OF NY...WITH COLDER TEMPS AOA 32F PERSISTING ACRS                 
 THE FINGER LAKES...WRN MOHAWK VLY INTO THE WRN CATSKILLS. WE HAVE              
 RECIEVED A RPT FROM SRN CAYUGA COUNTY WHERE TREE LIMBS WERE COMING             
 DOWN DUE TO THE ICE. WE WILL INCREMENTALLY BEGIN TO TAKE DOWN SOME             
 OF THE ADVISORIES/WARNINGS WHERE TEMPS HAVE RISEN ABV FREEZING.                
 HYDROWISE... WE COULD SEE SOME OF OUR HEADWATER PTS APRCH FS...BUT             
 ATTM FEEL THAT ANY FLOODING CONCERNS WOULD BE FAIRLY MINOR.                    
 PREV DISCUSSION...                                                             
 /ISSUED 659 AM EST MON JAN 15 2007/                                            
 SHORT TERM /REST OF TODAY/...                                                  
 JUST SENT A REFRESHER BATCH OF ZONES AND STATEMENTS. WARM AIR HAS              
 MADE INTO WYOMING AND LACKAWANNA COUNTIES. MESO OBS STILL SHOW                 
 TEMPS CLOSE TO FREEZING AT HIGH ELEVATIONS IN THIS RANGE, BUT                  
 CLEARLY THE EVENT SHOULD BE ENDING SOON FOR THIS AREA. AS                      
 FORECAST, COLD AIR DAMMING IS SHOWING UP OVER EASTERN ZONES AND                
 SHOULD KEEP ICE ACCUMULATION CONTINUING.                                       
 CURRENT THINKING IS TEMPS WILL WARM INTO 33F-35F BY 10 AM OVER SO              
 TIER OF NY. COULD TAKE UNTIL EARLY AFTERNOON HOWEVER OVER FINGER               
 LAKES CATSKILLS. NORTHERN ONEIDA MAY NOT EVER GET THAT HIGH, BUT               
 SHOULD SEE A PRECIP TYPE CHANGEOVER TO SNOW WITH THE COLD FRONT                
 LATE AFTERNOON.                                                                
 DJP                                                                            
 PREV DISCUSSION...                                                             
 /ISSUED 651 AM EST MON JAN 15 2007/                                            
 AVIATION /151200Z-161200Z/...                                                  
 CENTRAL NY SITES HAVE STEADY FZRA WITH MAINLY IFR CIGS AND MVFR                
 VSBYS. AVP THE BEST TO START AND IN GENERAL WITH MVFR CIGS AND VFR             
 TO MVFR VSBYS. CIGS MAY DIP DOWN TO IFR AS HEAVIER RAIN MOVES IN               
 LATER THIS MORNING.                                                            
 SFC LOW TRACKS TO NW BRINGING A WARM FRONT AND IMPROVING                       
 CONDITIONS THIS AFTN FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT THIS EVENING. NY                 
 SITES SHOULD REMAIN THE SAME WITH VSBY AND CIGS EVEN AS FZRA                   
 CHANGES TO RA THIS MORNING. CIG AND VSBY IMPROVEMENT WITH WARM                 
 FRONT. WINDS SHIFT FROM SE TO SW AND REMAINING AT 5 TO 10 KTS.                 
 COLD FRONT WILL BRING ANOTHER WIND SHIFT TO NW. GENERALLY MVFR                 
 CONDITIONS LATE TODAY AND OVERNIGHT. SOME SNOW SHOWERS LATE IN                 
 PERIOD WITH MUCH COLDER AIR RACING IN FOR SYR...RME...AND ITH.                 
 PREV DISCUSSION...                                                             
 /ISSUED 209 AM EST MON JAN 15 2007/                                            
 HYDROLOGY...                                                                   
 SOME CONCERN THIS MORNING ABOUT FLOOD POTENTIAL. PRECIP TYPE MIX               
 OF FREEZING RAIN AND RAIN MOST AREAS WITH MORE ICE IN THE NORTH.               
 FORECASTED RAINFALL AMOUNTS AROUND AN INCH. MARFC HEADWATER                    
 GUIDANCE SHOWS MONROETON AND SHERBURNE AT 1 AND 1.2 INCHES                     
 RESPECTIVELY IN 6 AND ALSO 12 HOURS. OTHER HEADWATER AND FLASH FLOOD           
 GUIDANCE FROM BOTH RFCS HIGHER MOSTLY BETWEEN 1.5 AND 2.5 INCHES.              
 STREAMS AND RIVERS RUNNING UNSEASONABLY HIGH WITH SATURATED OR                 
 FROZEN GROUND. WITH AFTN TEMPS INTO 40S ALL BUT FAR N AND E ANY                
 ICE ACCUMULATED THIS MORNING WILL MELT AND RUNOFF. IN THE FAR N                
 AND E THERE WILL BE MORE ICE SO EXPECTED PRECIP TOTALS WILL NOT                
 ALL RUN OFF LIKE SRN TIER NY AND NE PA.                                        
 AFTER CHAT WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES WILL HOLD OFF ON A FLOOD WATCH             
 ATTM. ANY FLOOD PROBLEMS WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL MIDDAY AND SHOULD BE              
 MINOR AT WORST. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR AS ALWAYS. TAC                        
 PREV DISCUSSION...                                                             
 /ISSUED 125 AM EST MON JAN 15 2007/                                            
 SHORT TERM /TODAY/...                                                          
 WE ANTICIPATE AN EARLY ISSUANCE OF THE FORECAST PRODUCTS THIS                  
 MORNING TO GET AS MUCH LEAD TIME AS POSSIBLE FOR FLAG UPGRADES.                
 A POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS SITUATION IS SETTING UP FOR THE EASTERN                
 FORECAST AREA. WHILE THE FOCUS HAS RIGHTLY BEEN ON ICE                         
 ACCUMULATION OVER THE FINGER LAKES, ONONDAGA, MADISON, AND ONEIDA              
 COUNTIES, NEW MESOSCALE MODEL GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING SIGNIFICANT               
 ICE ACCUMULATION INTO THE CATSKILLS REGION, AND MAYBE EVEN THE POCONOS.        
 A LARGE POOL OF VERY COLD AIR IS IN PLACE OVER EXTREME NORTHERN                
 NEW YORK AND NEW ENGLAND, INTO QUEBEC PROVINCE. RUC40 AND NAM12                
 SFC TEMP FIELDS EACH SHOW THIS COLD AIR BLEEDING SOUTHWARD INTO                
 THE CATSKILLS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS, AND REMAINING FIXED FOR             
 A GOOD PORTION OF TODAY. THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH CLIMATOLOGY...WE              
 HAVE SEEN THIS MANY TIMES. IN THE MEANTIME MOISTURE IS STREAMING               
 NORTHWARD AS ANTICIPATED. GIVEN THE STRONG TEMP GRADIENT FORECAST              
 OVER THE EASTERN FA, PLUS THE ADDED TERRAIN LIFT, THINK THIS AREA              
 COULD RECEIVE MORE FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET THAN PREVIOUSLY                     
 EXPECTED THIS MORNING/AFTERNOON. IF ONE IS TO BUY THE SFC GUIDANCE             
 AS ADVERTISED, THE FREEZING LINE DIPS SOUTHWESTWARD INTO                       
 PIKE/WAYNE COUNTIES. THIS REGION WILL BE "ON THE EDGE." SO WHAT WE             
 PROPOSE TO DO IS UPGRADE EASTERN NY COUNTIES TO A WINTER STORM                 
 WARNING, AND ADD AN ADVISORY FOR PIKE/SOUTHERN WAYNE.                          
 DIFFERENT TIMING SCENARIO BUT SIMILAR RESULTS FOR SOUTHERN TIER OF             
 NY AND OTHER PORTIONS OF NORTHEASTERN PA. COLD AIR IS ALREADY IN               
 PLACE OVER TWIN TIERS, WITH STEUBEN CTY IN MID 20S EARLY THIS                  
 MORNING AND UPPER 20S EXTENDING EASTWARD THROUGH BROOME COUNTY.                
 WITH TEMPERATURES THIS FAR BELOW FREEZING, AND EXPECTED TO REMAIN              
 BELOW FREEZING A FEW HOURS LONGER THAN EXPECTED THIS MORNING, WE               
 WILL UPGRADE THIS REGION TO A WARNING TOO FOR FREEZING RAIN AND                
 SLEET.                                                                         
 MESO-OBS SHOW TEMPS OVER SULLIVAN AND WYOMING CTYS IN PA HOVERING              
 AROUND FREEZING MARK TOO. AN ADVISORY IS NEEDED HERE. THE LATER                
 CREWS SHOULD BE ABLE TO DROP THIS ADVISORY BY MID MORNING, BUT FOR             
 NOW IT NEEDS TO BE ADDED TO THE SUITE.                                         
 COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH TONIGHT. GIVEN VERY TIGHT TEMP GRADIENT,             
 AND FORECASTED FORCING/OMEGA ALONG THE FRONT, CAN SEE POTENTIAL                
 FOR A SQUALL DROPPING SOUTHEASTWARD WITH FRONT DURING EVENING                  
 HOURS. THIS IS SOMETHING WE NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON UPSTREAM, AS IT             
 WOULD ENTER THE NORTHWESTERN FORECAST AREA JUST AN HOUR OR TWO                 
 AFTER PEAK DRIVE TIME.                                                         
 MUCH COLDER AIR WILL SPAWN LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS TUESDAY AND                
 TUESDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER ORGANIZATION LOOKS WEAK AT THIS POINT, AND              
 AM NOT YET SOLD ON ANYTHING BUT LIGHT ACCUMULATION.  DJP                       
 LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...                                          
 WITH FOCUS ON THE SHORT TERM, WE FOLLOWED HPC GUIDANCE CLOSELY WHICH           
 LOOKED VERY GOOD. SOME LES LIKELY TUES NGT INTO WED ON A COLD NW               
 FLOW, WHICH SHUD DIMINISH ON WED AFTN. THE LAKES ARE VERY MILD FOR             
 THIS TIME OF YEAR, AND COLD AIR TEMPS SUGGEST AT LEAST MDT                     
 INSTABILITY. LATEST PROFILES SHOW FAIRLY WELL ALIGNED NW FLOW TUES             
 NGT INTO WED MRNG, WITH INVERSION NEAR 850 MB TUES NGT THEN LOWERING           
 ON WED. LOOKS LIKE POTNL FOR SOME ADVISORY ACCUMS ACRS PORTIONS OF             
 THE FINGER LAKES AND SUSQ RGN. HIGH PRES BUILDS IN FOR WED NGT AND             
 THU WITH FAIR WX. ANOTHER REINFORCING SURGE OF COLD AIR LATE IN THE            
 WEEK WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS.                                            
 &&                                                                             
 .BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                            
 NY...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR NYZ022-057-062.             
      WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR NYZ009-            
      015>018-023-025-036-037-044>046.                                          
 PA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR                  
      PAZ040-048-072.                                                           
 &&                                                                             
 $$                                                                             
</pre> ny                                                                       

 AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                       
 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY                                         
 822 AM EST MON JAN 15 2007                                                     
 .UPDATE...                                                                     
 SFC TEMP ANYLS SHOWS A THERMAL RDG XTNDG FROM THE WYOMING VLY INTO             
 THE SRN TIER OF NY...WITH COLDER TEMPS AOA 32F PERSISTING ACRS                 
 THE FINGER LAKES...WRN MOHAWK VLY INTO THE WRN CATSKILLS. WE HAVE              
 RECIEVED A RPT FROM SRN CAYUGA COUNTY WHERE TREE LIMBS WERE COMING             
 DOWN DUE TO THE ICE. WE WILL INCREMENTALLY BEGIN TO TAKE DOWN SOME             
 OF THE ADVISORIES/WARNINGS WHERE TEMPS HAVE RISEN ABV FREEZING.                
 HYDROWISE... WE COULD SEE SOME OF OUR HEADWATER PTS APRCH FS...BUT             
 ATTM FEEL THAT ANY FLOODING CONCERNS WOULD BE FAIRLY MINOR.                    
 &&                                                                             
 .PREV DISCUSSION...                                                            
 /ISSUED 659 AM EST MON JAN 15 2007/                                            
 SHORT TERM /REST OF TODAY/...                                                  
 JUST SENT A REFRESHER BATCH OF ZONES AND STATEMENTS. WARM AIR HAS              
 MADE INTO WYOMING AND LACKAWANNA COUNTIES. MESO OBS STILL SHOW                 
 TEMPS CLOSE TO FREEZING AT HIGH ELEVATIONS IN THIS RANGE, BUT                  
 CLEARLY THE EVENT SHOULD BE ENDING SOON FOR THIS AREA. AS                      
 FORECAST, COLD AIR DAMMING IS SHOWING UP OVER EASTERN ZONES AND                
 SHOULD KEEP ICE ACCUMULATION CONTINUING.                                       
 CURRENT THINKING IS TEMPS WILL WARM INTO 33F-35F BY 10 AM OVER SO              
 TIER OF NY. COULD TAKE UNTIL EARLY AFTERNOON HOWEVER OVER FINGER               
 LAKES CATSKILLS. NORTHERN ONEIDA MAY NOT EVER GET THAT HIGH, BUT               
 SHOULD SEE A PRECIP TYPE CHANGEOVER TO SNOW WITH THE COLD FRONT                
 LATE AFTERNOON.                                                                
 DJP                                                                            
 PREV DISCUSSION...                                                             
 /ISSUED 651 AM EST MON JAN 15 2007/                                            
 AVIATION /151200Z-161200Z/...                                                  
 CENTRAL NY SITES HAVE STEADY FZRA WITH MAINLY IFR CIGS AND MVFR                
 VSBYS. AVP THE BEST TO START AND IN GENERAL WITH MVFR CIGS AND VFR             
 TO MVFR VSBYS. CIGS MAY DIP DOWN TO IFR AS HEAVIER RAIN MOVES IN               
 LATER THIS MORNING.                                                            
 SFC LOW TRACKS TO NW BRINGING A WARM FRONT AND IMPROVING                       
 CONDITIONS THIS AFTN FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT THIS EVENING. NY                 
 SITES SHOULD REMAIN THE SAME WITH VSBY AND CIGS EVEN AS FZRA                   
 CHANGES TO RA THIS MORNING. CIG AND VSBY IMPROVEMENT WITH WARM                 
 FRONT. WINDS SHIFT FROM SE TO SW AND REMAINING AT 5 TO 10 KTS.                 
 COLD FRONT WILL BRING ANOTHER WIND SHIFT TO NW. GENERALLY MVFR                 
 CONDITIONS LATE TODAY AND OVERNIGHT. SOME SNOW SHOWERS LATE IN                 
 PERIOD WITH MUCH COLDER AIR RACING IN FOR SYR...RME...AND ITH.                 
 PREV DISCUSSION...                                                             
 /ISSUED 209 AM EST MON JAN 15 2007/                                            
 HYDROLOGY...                                                                   
 SOME CONCERN THIS MORNING ABOUT FLOOD POTENTIAL. PRECIP TYPE MIX               
 OF FREEZING RAIN AND RAIN MOST AREAS WITH MORE ICE IN THE NORTH.               
 FORECASTED RAINFALL AMOUNTS AROUND AN INCH. MARFC HEADWATER                    
 GUIDANCE SHOWS MONROETON AND SHERBURNE AT 1 AND 1.2 INCHES                     
 RESPECTIVELY IN 6 AND ALSO 12 HOURS. OTHER HEADWATER AND FLASH FLOOD           
 GUIDANCE FROM BOTH RFCS HIGHER MOSTLY BETWEEN 1.5 AND 2.5 INCHES.              
 STREAMS AND RIVERS RUNNING UNSEASONABLY HIGH WITH SATURATED OR                 
 FROZEN GROUND. WITH AFTN TEMPS INTO 40S ALL BUT FAR N AND E ANY                
 ICE ACCUMULATED THIS MORNING WILL MELT AND RUNOFF. IN THE FAR N                
 AND E THERE WILL BE MORE ICE SO EXPECTED PRECIP TOTALS WILL NOT                
 ALL RUN OFF LIKE SRN TIER NY AND NE PA.                                        
 AFTER CHAT WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES WILL HOLD OFF ON A FLOOD WATCH             
 ATTM. ANY FLOOD PROBLEMS WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL MIDDAY AND SHOULD BE              
 MINOR AT WORST. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR AS ALWAYS. TAC                        
 PREV DISCUSSION...                                                             
 /ISSUED 125 AM EST MON JAN 15 2007/                                            
 SHORT TERM /TODAY/...                                                          
 WE ANTICIPATE AN EARLY ISSUANCE OF THE FORECAST PRODUCTS THIS                  
 MORNING TO GET AS MUCH LEAD TIME AS POSSIBLE FOR FLAG UPGRADES.                
 A POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS SITUATION IS SETTING UP FOR THE EASTERN                
 FORECAST AREA. WHILE THE FOCUS HAS RIGHTLY BEEN ON ICE                         
 ACCUMULATION OVER THE FINGER LAKES, ONONDAGA, MADISON, AND ONEIDA              
 COUNTIES, NEW MESOSCALE MODEL GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING SIGNIFICANT               
 ICE ACCUMULATION INTO THE CATSKILLS REGION, AND MAYBE EVEN THE POCONOS.        
 A LARGE POOL OF VERY COLD AIR IS IN PLACE OVER EXTREME NORTHERN                
 NEW YORK AND NEW ENGLAND, INTO QUEBEC PROVINCE. RUC40 AND NAM12                
 SFC TEMP FIELDS EACH SHOW THIS COLD AIR BLEEDING SOUTHWARD INTO                
 THE CATSKILLS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS, AND REMAINING FIXED FOR             
 A GOOD PORTION OF TODAY. THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH CLIMATOLOGY...WE              
 HAVE SEEN THIS MANY TIMES. IN THE MEANTIME MOISTURE IS STREAMING               
 NORTHWARD AS ANTICIPATED. GIVEN THE STRONG TEMP GRADIENT FORECAST              
 OVER THE EASTERN FA, PLUS THE ADDED TERRAIN LIFT, THINK THIS AREA              
 COULD RECEIVE MORE FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET THAN PREVIOUSLY                     
 EXPECTED THIS MORNING/AFTERNOON. IF ONE IS TO BUY THE SFC GUIDANCE             
 AS ADVERTISED, THE FREEZING LINE DIPS SOUTHWESTWARD INTO                       
 PIKE/WAYNE COUNTIES. THIS REGION WILL BE "ON THE EDGE." SO WHAT WE             
 PROPOSE TO DO IS UPGRADE EASTERN NY COUNTIES TO A WINTER STORM                 
 WARNING, AND ADD AN ADVISORY FOR PIKE/SOUTHERN WAYNE.                          
 DIFFERENT TIMING SCENARIO BUT SIMILAR RESULTS FOR SOUTHERN TIER OF             
 NY AND OTHER PORTIONS OF NORTHEASTERN PA. COLD AIR IS ALREADY IN               
 PLACE OVER TWIN TIERS, WITH STEUBEN CTY IN MID 20S EARLY THIS                  
 MORNING AND UPPER 20S EXTENDING EASTWARD THROUGH BROOME COUNTY.                
 WITH TEMPERATURES THIS FAR BELOW FREEZING, AND EXPECTED TO REMAIN              
 BELOW FREEZING A FEW HOURS LONGER THAN EXPECTED THIS MORNING, WE               
 WILL UPGRADE THIS REGION TO A WARNING TOO FOR FREEZING RAIN AND                
 SLEET.                                                                         
 MESO-OBS SHOW TEMPS OVER SULLIVAN AND WYOMING CTYS IN PA HOVERING              
 AROUND FREEZING MARK TOO. AN ADVISORY IS NEEDED HERE. THE LATER                
 CREWS SHOULD BE ABLE TO DROP THIS ADVISORY BY MID MORNING, BUT FOR             
 NOW IT NEEDS TO BE ADDED TO THE SUITE.                                         
 COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH TONIGHT. GIVEN VERY TIGHT TEMP GRADIENT,             
 AND FORECASTED FORCING/OMEGA ALONG THE FRONT, CAN SEE POTENTIAL                
 FOR A SQUALL DROPPING SOUTHEASTWARD WITH FRONT DURING EVENING                  
 HOURS. THIS IS SOMETHING WE NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON UPSTREAM, AS IT             
 WOULD ENTER THE NORTHWESTERN FORECAST AREA JUST AN HOUR OR TWO                 
 AFTER PEAK DRIVE TIME.                                                         
 MUCH COLDER AIR WILL SPAWN LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS TUESDAY AND                
 TUESDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER ORGANIZATION LOOKS WEAK AT THIS POINT, AND              
 AM NOT YET SOLD ON ANYTHING BUT LIGHT ACCUMULATION.  DJP                       
 LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...                                          
 WITH FOCUS ON THE SHORT TERM, WE FOLLOWED HPC GUIDANCE CLOSELY WHICH           
 LOOKED VERY GOOD. SOME LES LIKELY TUES NGT INTO WED ON A COLD NW               
 FLOW, WHICH SHUD DIMINISH ON WED AFTN. THE LAKES ARE VERY MILD FOR             
 THIS TIME OF YEAR, AND COLD AIR TEMPS SUGGEST AT LEAST MDT                     
 INSTABILITY. LATEST PROFILES SHOW FAIRLY WELL ALIGNED NW FLOW TUES             
 NGT INTO WED MRNG, WITH INVERSION NEAR 850 MB TUES NGT THEN LOWERING           
 ON WED. LOOKS LIKE POTNL FOR SOME ADVISORY ACCUMS ACRS PORTIONS OF             
 THE FINGER LAKES AND SUSQ RGN. HIGH PRES BUILDS IN FOR WED NGT AND             
 THU WITH FAIR WX. ANOTHER REINFORCING SURGE OF COLD AIR LATE IN THE            
 WEEK WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS.                                            
 &&                                                                             
 .BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                            
 NY...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR NYZ009-            
      015>018-022>025-036-037-044>046-055>057-062.                              
 PA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR                 
      PAZ038>040-043-044-048-072.                                               
 &&                                                                             
 $$                                                                             
</pre> ny                                                                       

 AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                       
 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY                                         
 659 AM EST MON JAN 15 2007                                                     
 .SHORT TERM /REST OF TODAY/...                                                 
 JUST SENT A REFRESHER BATCH OF ZONES AND STATEMENTS. WARM AIR HAS              
 MADE INTO WYOMING AND LACKAWANNA COUNTIES. MESO OBS STILL SHOW                 
 TEMPS CLOSE TO FREEZING AT HIGH ELEVATIONS IN THIS RANGE, BUT                  
 CLEARLY THE EVENT SHOULD BE ENDING SOON FOR THIS AREA. AS                      
 FORECAST, COLD AIR DAMMING IS SHOWING UP OVER EASTERN ZONES AND                
 SHOULD KEEP ICE ACCUMULATION CONTINUING.                                       
 CURRENT THINKING IS TEMPS WILL WARM INTO 33F-35F BY 10 AM OVER SO              
 TIER OF NY. COULD TAKE UNTIL EARLY AFTERNOON HOWEVER OVER FINGER               
 LAKES CATSKILLS. NORTHERN ONEIDA MAY NOT EVER GET THAT HIGH, BUT               
 SHOULD SEE A PRECIP TYPE CHANGEOVER TO SNOW WITH THE COLD FRONT                
 LATE AFTERNOON.                                                                
 DJP                                                                            
 &&                                                                             
 .PREV DISCUSSION...                                                            
 /ISSUED 651 AM EST MON JAN 15 2007/                                            
 AVIATION /151200Z-161200Z/...                                                  
 CENTRAL NY SITES HAVE STEADY FZRA WITH MAINLY IFR CIGS AND MVFR                
 VSBYS. AVP THE BEST TO START AND IN GENERAL WITH MVFR CIGS AND VFR             
 TO MVFR VSBYS. CIGS MAY DIP DOWN TO IFR AS HEAVIER RAIN MOVES IN               
 LATER THIS MORNING.                                                            
 SFC LOW TRACKS TO NW BRINGING A WARM FRONT AND IMPROVING                       
 CONDITIONS THIS AFTN FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT THIS EVENING. NY                 
 SITES SHOULD REMAIN THE SAME WITH VSBY AND CIGS EVEN AS FZRA                   
 CHANGES TO RA THIS MORNING. CIG AND VSBY IMPROVEMENT WITH WARM                 
 FRONT. WINDS SHIFT FROM SE TO SW AND REMAINING AT 5 TO 10 KTS.                 
 COLD FRONT WILL BRING ANOTHER WIND SHIFT TO NW. GENERALLY MVFR                 
 CONDITIONS LATE TODAY AND OVERNIGHT. SOME SNOW SHOWERS LATE IN                 
 PERIOD WITH MUCH COLDER AIR RACING IN FOR SYR...RME...AND ITH.                 
 PREV DISCUSSION...                                                             
 /ISSUED 209 AM EST MON JAN 15 2007/                                            
 HYDROLOGY...                                                                   
 SOME CONCERN THIS MORNING ABOUT FLOOD POTENTIAL. PRECIP TYPE MIX               
 OF FREEZING RAIN AND RAIN MOST AREAS WITH MORE ICE IN THE NORTH.               
 FORECASTED RAINFALL AMOUNTS AROUND AN INCH. MARFC HEADWATER                    
 GUIDANCE SHOWS MONROETON AND SHERBURNE AT 1 AND 1.2 INCHES                     
 RESPECTIVELY IN 6 AND ALSO 12 HOURS. OTHER HEADWATER AND FLASH FLOOD           
 GUIDANCE FROM BOTH RFCS HIGHER MOSTLY BETWEEN 1.5 AND 2.5 INCHES.              
 STREAMS AND RIVERS RUNNING UNSEASONABLY HIGH WITH SATURATED OR                 
 FROZEN GROUND. WITH AFTN TEMPS INTO 40S ALL BUT FAR N AND E ANY                
 ICE ACCUMULATED THIS MORNING WILL MELT AND RUNOFF. IN THE FAR N                
 AND E THERE WILL BE MORE ICE SO EXPECTED PRECIP TOTALS WILL NOT                
 ALL RUN OFF LIKE SRN TIER NY AND NE PA.                                        
 AFTER CHAT WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES WILL HOLD OFF ON A FLOOD WATCH             
 ATTM. ANY FLOOD PROBLEMS WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL MIDDAY AND SHOULD BE              
 MINOR AT WORST. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR AS ALWAYS. TAC                        
 PREV DISCUSSION...                                                             
 /ISSUED 125 AM EST MON JAN 15 2007/                                            
 SHORT TERM /TODAY/...                                                          
 WE ANTICIPATE AN EARLY ISSUANCE OF THE FORECAST PRODUCTS THIS                  
 MORNING TO GET AS MUCH LEAD TIME AS POSSIBLE FOR FLAG UPGRADES.                
 A POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS SITUATION IS SETTING UP FOR THE EASTERN                
 FORECAST AREA. WHILE THE FOCUS HAS RIGHTLY BEEN ON ICE                         
 ACCUMULATION OVER THE FINGER LAKES, ONONDAGA, MADISON, AND ONEIDA              
 COUNTIES, NEW MESOSCALE MODEL GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING SIGNIFICANT               
 ICE ACCUMULATION INTO THE CATSKILLS REGION, AND MAYBE EVEN THE POCONOS.        
 A LARGE POOL OF VERY COLD AIR IS IN PLACE OVER EXTREME NORTHERN                
 NEW YORK AND NEW ENGLAND, INTO QUEBEC PROVINCE. RUC40 AND NAM12                
 SFC TEMP FIELDS EACH SHOW THIS COLD AIR BLEEDING SOUTHWARD INTO                
 THE CATSKILLS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS, AND REMAINING FIXED FOR             
 A GOOD PORTION OF TODAY. THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH CLIMATOLOGY...WE              
 HAVE SEEN THIS MANY TIMES. IN THE MEANTIME MOISTURE IS STREAMING               
 NORTHWARD AS ANTICIPATED. GIVEN THE STRONG TEMP GRADIENT FORECAST              
 OVER THE EASTERN FA, PLUS THE ADDED TERRAIN LIFT, THINK THIS AREA              
 COULD RECEIVE MORE FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET THAN PREVIOUSLY                     
 EXPECTED THIS MORNING/AFTERNOON. IF ONE IS TO BUY THE SFC GUIDANCE             
 AS ADVERTISED, THE FREEZING LINE DIPS SOUTHWESTWARD INTO                       
 PIKE/WAYNE COUNTIES. THIS REGION WILL BE "ON THE EDGE." SO WHAT WE             
 PROPOSE TO DO IS UPGRADE EASTERN NY COUNTIES TO A WINTER STORM                 
 WARNING, AND ADD AN ADVISORY FOR PIKE/SOUTHERN WAYNE.                          
 DIFFERENT TIMING SCENARIO BUT SIMILAR RESULTS FOR SOUTHERN TIER OF             
 NY AND OTHER PORTIONS OF NORTHEASTERN PA. COLD AIR IS ALREADY IN               
 PLACE OVER TWIN TIERS, WITH STEUBEN CTY IN MID 20S EARLY THIS                  
 MORNING AND UPPER 20S EXTENDING EASTWARD THROUGH BROOME COUNTY.                
 WITH TEMPERATURES THIS FAR BELOW FREEZING, AND EXPECTED TO REMAIN              
 BELOW FREEZING A FEW HOURS LONGER THAN EXPECTED THIS MORNING, WE               
 WILL UPGRADE THIS REGION TO A WARNING TOO FOR FREEZING RAIN AND                
 SLEET.                                                                         
 MESO-OBS SHOW TEMPS OVER SULLIVAN AND WYOMING CTYS IN PA HOVERING              
 AROUND FREEZING MARK TOO. AN ADVISORY IS NEEDED HERE. THE LATER                
 CREWS SHOULD BE ABLE TO DROP THIS ADVISORY BY MID MORNING, BUT FOR             
 NOW IT NEEDS TO BE ADDED TO THE SUITE.                                         
 COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH TONIGHT. GIVEN VERY TIGHT TEMP GRADIENT,             
 AND FORECASTED FORCING/OMEGA ALONG THE FRONT, CAN SEE POTENTIAL                
 FOR A SQUALL DROPPING SOUTHEASTWARD WITH FRONT DURING EVENING                  
 HOURS. THIS IS SOMETHING WE NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON UPSTREAM, AS IT             
 WOULD ENTER THE NORTHWESTERN FORECAST AREA JUST AN HOUR OR TWO                 
 AFTER PEAK DRIVE TIME.                                                         
 MUCH COLDER AIR WILL SPAWN LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS TUESDAY AND                
 TUESDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER ORGANIZATION LOOKS WEAK AT THIS POINT, AND              
 AM NOT YET SOLD ON ANYTHING BUT LIGHT ACCUMULATION.  DJP                       
 LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...                                          
 WITH FOCUS ON THE SHORT TERM, WE FOLLOWED HPC GUIDANCE CLOSELY WHICH           
 LOOKED VERY GOOD. SOME LES LIKELY TUES NGT INTO WED ON A COLD NW               
 FLOW, WHICH SHUD DIMINISH ON WED AFTN. THE LAKES ARE VERY MILD FOR             
 THIS TIME OF YEAR, AND COLD AIR TEMPS SUGGEST AT LEAST MDT                     
 INSTABILITY. LATEST PROFILES SHOW FAIRLY WELL ALIGNED NW FLOW TUES             
 NGT INTO WED MRNG, WITH INVERSION NEAR 850 MB TUES NGT THEN LOWERING           
 ON WED. LOOKS LIKE POTNL FOR SOME ADVISORY ACCUMS ACRS PORTIONS OF             
 THE FINGER LAKES AND SUSQ RGN. HIGH PRES BUILDS IN FOR WED NGT AND             
 THU WITH FAIR WX. ANOTHER REINFORCING SURGE OF COLD AIR LATE IN THE            
 WEEK WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS.                                            
 &&                                                                             
 .BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                            
 NY...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR NYZ009-            
      015>018-022>025-036-037-044>046-055>057-062.                              
 PA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR                 
      PAZ038>040-043-044-048-072.                                               
 &&                                                                             
 $$                                                                             
 SHORT TERM...                                                                  
</pre> ny                                                                       

 AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                       
 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY                                         
 651 AM EST MON JAN 15 2007                                                     
 .AVIATION /151200Z-161200Z/...                                                 
 CENTRAL NY SITES HAVE STEADY FZRA WITH MAINLY IFR CIGS AND MVFR                
 VSBYS. AVP THE BEST TO START AND IN GENERAL WITH MVFR CIGS AND VFR             
 TO MVFR VSBYS. CIGS MAY DIP DOWN TO IFR AS HEAVIER RAIN MOVES IN               
 LATER THIS MORNING.                                                            
 SFC LOW TRACKS TO NW BRINGING A WARM FRONT AND IMPROVING                       
 CONDITIONS THIS AFTN FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT THIS EVENING. NY                 
 SITES SHOULD REMAIN THE SAME WITH VSBY AND CIGS EVEN AS FZRA                   
 CHANGES TO RA THIS MORNING. CIG AND VSBY IMPROVEMENT WITH WARM                 
 FRONT. WINDS SHIFT FROM SE TO SW AND REMAINING AT 5 TO 10 KTS.                 
 COLD FRONT WILL BRING ANOTHER WIND SHIFT TO NW. GENERALLY MVFR                 
 CONDITIONS LATE TODAY AND OVERNIGHT. SOME SNOW SHOWERS LATE IN                 
 PERIOD WITH MUCH COLDER AIR RACING IN FOR SYR...RME...AND ITH.                 
 &&                                                                             
 .PREV DISCUSSION...                                                            
 /ISSUED 209 AM EST MON JAN 15 2007/                                            
 HYDROLOGY...                                                                   
 SOME CONCERN THIS MORNING ABOUT FLOOD POTENTIAL. PRECIP TYPE MIX               
 OF FREEZING RAIN AND RAIN MOST AREAS WITH MORE ICE IN THE NORTH.               
 FORECASTED RAINFALL AMOUNTS AROUND AN INCH. MARFC HEADWATER                    
 GUIDANCE SHOWS MONROETON AND SHERBURNE AT 1 AND 1.2 INCHES                     
 RESPECTIVELY IN 6 AND ALSO 12 HOURS. OTHER HEADWATER AND FLASH FLOOD           
 GUIDANCE FROM BOTH RFCS HIGHER MOSTLY BETWEEN 1.5 AND 2.5 INCHES.              
 STREAMS AND RIVERS RUNNING UNSEASONABLY HIGH WITH SATURATED OR                 
 FROZEN GROUND. WITH AFTN TEMPS INTO 40S ALL BUT FAR N AND E ANY                
 ICE ACCUMULATED THIS MORNING WILL MELT AND RUNOFF. IN THE FAR N                
 AND E THERE WILL BE MORE ICE SO EXPECTED PRECIP TOTALS WILL NOT                
 ALL RUN OFF LIKE SRN TIER NY AND NE PA.                                        
 AFTER CHAT WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES WILL HOLD OFF ON A FLOOD WATCH             
 ATTM. ANY FLOOD PROBLEMS WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL MIDDAY AND SHOULD BE              
 MINOR AT WORST. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR AS ALWAYS. TAC                        
 PREV DISCUSSION...                                                             
 /ISSUED 125 AM EST MON JAN 15 2007/                                            
 SHORT TERM /TODAY/...                                                          
 WE ANTICIPATE AN EARLY ISSUANCE OF THE FORECAST PRODUCTS THIS                  
 MORNING TO GET AS MUCH LEAD TIME AS POSSIBLE FOR FLAG UPGRADES.                
 A POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS SITUATION IS SETTING UP FOR THE EASTERN                
 FORECAST AREA. WHILE THE FOCUS HAS RIGHTLY BEEN ON ICE                         
 ACCUMULATION OVER THE FINGER LAKES, ONONDAGA, MADISON, AND ONEIDA              
 COUNTIES, NEW MESOSCALE MODEL GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING SIGNIFICANT               
 ICE ACCUMULATION INTO THE CATSKILLS REGION, AND MAYBE EVEN THE POCONOS.        
 A LARGE POOL OF VERY COLD AIR IS IN PLACE OVER EXTREME NORTHERN                
 NEW YORK AND NEW ENGLAND, INTO QUEBEC PROVINCE. RUC40 AND NAM12                
 SFC TEMP FIELDS EACH SHOW THIS COLD AIR BLEEDING SOUTHWARD INTO                
 THE CATSKILLS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS, AND REMAINING FIXED FOR             
 A GOOD PORTION OF TODAY. THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH CLIMATOLOGY...WE              
 HAVE SEEN THIS MANY TIMES. IN THE MEANTIME MOISTURE IS STREAMING               
 NORTHWARD AS ANTICIPATED. GIVEN THE STRONG TEMP GRADIENT FORECAST              
 OVER THE EASTERN FA, PLUS THE ADDED TERRAIN LIFT, THINK THIS AREA              
 COULD RECEIVE MORE FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET THAN PREVIOUSLY                     
 EXPECTED THIS MORNING/AFTERNOON. IF ONE IS TO BUY THE SFC GUIDANCE             
 AS ADVERTISED, THE FREEZING LINE DIPS SOUTHWESTWARD INTO                       
 PIKE/WAYNE COUNTIES. THIS REGION WILL BE "ON THE EDGE." SO WHAT WE             
 PROPOSE TO DO IS UPGRADE EASTERN NY COUNTIES TO A WINTER STORM                 
 WARNING, AND ADD AN ADVISORY FOR PIKE/SOUTHERN WAYNE.                          
 DIFFERENT TIMING SCENARIO BUT SIMILAR RESULTS FOR SOUTHERN TIER OF             
 NY AND OTHER PORTIONS OF NORTHEASTERN PA. COLD AIR IS ALREADY IN               
 PLACE OVER TWIN TIERS, WITH STEUBEN CTY IN MID 20S EARLY THIS                  
 MORNING AND UPPER 20S EXTENDING EASTWARD THROUGH BROOME COUNTY.                
 WITH TEMPERATURES THIS FAR BELOW FREEZING, AND EXPECTED TO REMAIN              
 BELOW FREEZING A FEW HOURS LONGER THAN EXPECTED THIS MORNING, WE               
 WILL UPGRADE THIS REGION TO A WARNING TOO FOR FREEZING RAIN AND                
 SLEET.                                                                         
 MESO-OBS SHOW TEMPS OVER SULLIVAN AND WYOMING CTYS IN PA HOVERING              
 AROUND FREEZING MARK TOO. AN ADVISORY IS NEEDED HERE. THE LATER                
 CREWS SHOULD BE ABLE TO DROP THIS ADVISORY BY MID MORNING, BUT FOR             
 NOW IT NEEDS TO BE ADDED TO THE SUITE.                                         
 COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH TONIGHT. GIVEN VERY TIGHT TEMP GRADIENT,             
 AND FORECASTED FORCING/OMEGA ALONG THE FRONT, CAN SEE POTENTIAL                
 FOR A SQUALL DROPPING SOUTHEASTWARD WITH FRONT DURING EVENING                  
 HOURS. THIS IS SOMETHING WE NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON UPSTREAM, AS IT             
 WOULD ENTER THE NORTHWESTERN FORECAST AREA JUST AN HOUR OR TWO                 
 AFTER PEAK DRIVE TIME.                                                         
 MUCH COLDER AIR WILL SPAWN LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS TUESDAY AND                
 TUESDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER ORGANIZATION LOOKS WEAK AT THIS POINT, AND              
 AM NOT YET SOLD ON ANYTHING BUT LIGHT ACCUMULATION.  DJP                       
 LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...                                          
 WITH FOCUS ON THE SHORT TERM, WE FOLLOWED HPC GUIDANCE CLOSELY WHICH           
 LOOKED VERY GOOD. SOME LES LIKELY TUES NGT INTO WED ON A COLD NW               
 FLOW, WHICH SHUD DIMINISH ON WED AFTN. THE LAKES ARE VERY MILD FOR             
 THIS TIME OF YEAR, AND COLD AIR TEMPS SUGGEST AT LEAST MDT                     
 INSTABILITY. LATEST PROFILES SHOW FAIRLY WELL ALIGNED NW FLOW TUES             
 NGT INTO WED MRNG, WITH INVERSION NEAR 850 MB TUES NGT THEN LOWERING           
 ON WED. LOOKS LIKE POTNL FOR SOME ADVISORY ACCUMS ACRS PORTIONS OF             
 THE FINGER LAKES AND SUSQ RGN. HIGH PRES BUILDS IN FOR WED NGT AND             
 THU WITH FAIR WX. ANOTHER REINFORCING SURGE OF COLD AIR LATE IN THE            
 WEEK WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS.                                            
 &&                                                                             
 .BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                            
 NY...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR NYZ009-            
      015>018-022>025-036-037-044>046-055>057-062.                              
 PA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR                 
      PAZ038>040-043-044-048-072.                                               
 &&                                                                             
 $$                                                                             
</pre> ny                                                                       

 AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                       
 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH                                         
 650 AM EST MON JAN 15 2007                                                     
 .AVIATION /12Z-12Z/...                                                         
 SFC LOW QUICLY MOVING NE THROUGH OHVLY...CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER                
 LIMA. NEARLY STATIONARY COLD FRONT BISECTING THE REGION FROM SW-NE             
 WILL MAKE AN EASTWARD PUSH AS SFC COLD AIR SWINGS THROUGH THE                  
 REGION. TRIED TO BE A LITTLE OPTIMISTIC ON CIGS FOR ALL BUT KDAY               
 TAFS TODAY...AT LEAST UNTIL WINDS SHIFT MORE WESTERLY AND CIGS DROP            
 TOWARDS THE IFR CATEGORY.                                                      
 COLD POOL WILL HAVE MORE OF AN EFFECT OF DRYING OUT THE AIR THIS               
 AFTERNOON AND EVENING VERSUS CHANGING RAIN OVER TO SNOW. BELIEVE               
 THAT ISOLD -SHSN WILL OCCUR THIS EVENING BUT THERE IS NOT ANY                  
 PARTICULAR AREA FOR DEVELOPMENT. CONTINUE TO LEAVE OUT OF FCST AS              
 THEY SHOULDN`T AFFECT VSBYS ALL THAT MUCH...OR AT LEAST BE MORE MISS           
 THAN HIT.                                                                      
 FRANKS                                                                         
 &&                                                                             
 .SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...                                       
 SFC LOW IS NR OF IND...WITH A WRMFNT RUNNING NE UP TO NR AOH AND               
 FDY. POSITION OF THE LOW IS WEST OF ALL THE MODELS...WHICH SHOULD              
 MEAN THAT TEMPS AT 12Z WILL BE WARMER THAN GUIDANCE. USED THE RAW              
 RUC/NAM12 SFC TEMPS FOR MY 12Z TEMPS AND MADE THEM MY HIGH TEMPS.              
 WITH LOW PULLS NE COLDER AIR WILL WORK INTO THE REGION THIS                    
 AFTERNOON. RAIN WILL GRADUALLY CHANGE TO SNOW IN THE NW HALF                   
 TODAY...THEN ACROSS THE SE TONIGHT. MODELS DRAG A PERIOD OF                    
 MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN ACRS THE FA THIS MORNING. WILL LEAVE FFA                
 UP THRU EXPIRATION TIME.                                                       
 PCPN WILL TAPER OFF QUICKLY THIS AFTERNOON.                                    
 NORTHERLY FLOW OVER THE LAKES WILL PRODUCE SNOW SHOWERS TONIGHT                
 INTO EARLY TUE EVENING.                                                        
 HIGH BUILDS IN TUE NGT INTO WED.                                               
 FOR TEMPS THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD....USED A BLEND OF                   
 GUIDANCE.                                                                      
 SITES                                                                          
 &&                                                                             
 .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...                                 
 NO CHANGE TO PREVIOUS FORECAST.                                                
 &&                                                                             
 .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                            
 OH...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR OHZ026-034-035-              
      042>046-051>056-060>065-070>074-077>082-088.                              
 KY...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR KYZ089>100.                  
 IN...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR INZ050-058-059-              
      066-073>075-080.                                                          
 &&                                                                             
 $$                                                                             
</pre> oh                                                                       

 AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                             
 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA                                         
 1032 AM EST MON JAN 15 2007                                                    
 .SHORT TERM /REST OF TODAY/...                                                 
 LATEST RUC AND 06Z NAM HAD THE BEST HANDLE ON THE TIMING AND                   
 LOCATION OF THE FRONT THIS MORNING. HAVE SLOWED DOWN THE ARRIVAL               
 OF THE RAIN BY A COUPLE OF HOURS. WINDS IN THE PIEDMONT ARE                    
 ALREADY GUSTING UP TO 20 KNOTS. GSO 12Z SOUNDING HAD 35 KNOT WINDS             
 BELOW 2000 FEET SO HAVE RAISED WIND SPEEDS...ESPECIALLY AT HIGHER              
 ELEVATIONS. ALSO MADE SLIGHT TWEAKS TO HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY                 
 BASED ON THE LATEST LAMP GUIDANCE AND CURRENT TEMPERATURES. NO                 
 OTHER CHANGES AT THIS TIME.                                                    
 &&                                                                             
 .PREV DISCUSSION...                                                            
 /ISSUED 621 AM EST MON JAN 15 2007/                                            
 AVIATION /12Z-12Z/...                                                          
 MOISTURE WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY WITH OCNL MVFR IN               
 LOW CLOUDS ACROSS THE SOUTH THIS MORNING AND AT BLF/LWB THIS                   
 AFTERNOON. EXPECT ANY REDUCTIONS IN VSBY DUE TO -SHRA TO HOLD OFF              
 ACROSS SE WVA UNTIL EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AND ELSEWHERE BY EARLY                
 EVENING. STRONG SW JET ALOFT WILL MAKE FOR EARLY WIND SHEAR                    
 PROBLEMS ESPCLY WHERE SURFACE REMAIN LIGHT SO WILL INCLUDE IN A                
 FEW SPOTS UNTIL BETTER MIXING DEVELOPS. COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH               
 FROM THE WEST OVERNIGHT PRECEDED BY A BAND OF SHRA. THIS SHOULD                
 KEEP PREVAILING MVFR CONDITIONS AT LWB/BLF BUT MAINLY VFR IN THE               
 EAST WHERE PRECIP SHOULD BE RATHER LIGHT. MAY HAVE A PERIOD OF IFR             
 ESPCLY BLF BY 12Z TUE WHEN RAIN WILL HAVE LIKELY CHANGED TO                    
 -SHSN...OTRW RANGE FROM CONTINUED MVFR SE WVA TO VFR CEILINGS                  
 ELSEWHERE INTO EARLY TUE.                                                      
 PREV DISCUSSION...                                                             
 /ISSUED 251 AM EST MON JAN 15 2007/                                            
 SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...                                          
 COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE OHIO VALLEY SW TO THE ARKLATEX WILL              
 FINALLY START TO SHIFT EAST TODAY AS FINAL SURFACE LOW AND UPPER               
 SYSTEM SHEAR BY TO THE NW. HOWEVER STRONG UPPER RIDGE OVER THE SE              
 SHOULD BE ABLE TO AGAIN SLOW THE FRONT AND ASSOCIATED DEEP MOISTURE            
 ENOUGH TO ALLOW ANOTHER VERY MILD DAY ACROSS THE AREA. THIS SUPPORTED          
 BY MODEL RH SECTIONS WHICH INDICATE MID/HIGH CLOUDS EARLY THEN                 
 INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BEFORE ARC OF SHRA WORKS INTO THE                
 FAR WESTERN ZONES BY MID OR LATE AFTERNOON. ALSO GIVEN PARALLEL                
 NATURE OF BOUNDARY TO UPPER FLOW AND RAIN BEING WELL WEST EARLY                
 THIS MORNING...PLAN TO SLOW POPS...WITH ANY CHANCES FAR WESTERN                
 SLOPES TOWARD EARLY AFTERNOON...THEN QUICKLY INCREASING TO                     
 LIKELY/CAT LATE AS EDGE OF PRECIP SHIELD ARRIVES. MAY BE TOUGH TO              
 SEE MUCH PRECIP AT ALL EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE UNTIL THIS                       
 EVENING...SO CUTTING BACK TO 20/30 POP AND BASICALLY DRY SOUTHSIDE             
 VA. ALTHO NOT QUITE AS WARM ALOFT TODAY...WARM START AND                       
 INCREASING SW TRAJECTORY SHOULD AGAIN SEND HIGHS ABOVE 70                      
 EAST...AND INTO THE 60S WEST PENDING AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE.                       
 FRONT SHOULD CROSS THE MOUNTAINS THIS EVENING AND EXIT THE COAST TUE           
 MORNING. PRE-FRONTAL MOISTURE GETS QUITE STRETCHED OUT CROSSING                
 THE RIDGES WITH BEST SUPPORT EXITING NORTH WHILE INSTABILITY WELL              
 TO THE SOUTH. EXPECT BEST COVERAGE FAR WEST EARLY ON AS BAND OF                
 SHRA NUDGES EAST AND WEAKENS BEFORE JUMPING INTO THE PIEDMONT                  
 TOWARD MORNING AS NEXT WEAK IMPULSE RIDES UP THE FRONT. THEREFORE              
 LIKELY POPS WEST AND FAR SE...WITH MAINLY CHANCE BLUE RIDGE WHERE              
 RH LOOKS LIMITED BY LEFTOVER MID LEVEL DRY AIR PER RAOBS. 85H                  
 FRONT SHOULD CHASE DOWN ANY LINGERING SHRA FAR NW TOWARD MORNING               
 WITH CHANGE TO -SHSN LIKELY BY 12Z. END OF WARMTH WILL BE MARKED               
 BY STRONG COLD ADVECTION AIDED BY GUSTY NW WINDS AND TEMPS GOING               
 NOWHERE ON TUE. MAY HAVE A FEW LINGERING SHRA PIEDMONT TUE                     
 MORNING...OTRW LOOKING AT A PERIOD OF UPSLOPE -SHSN ESPCLY NW                  
 SLOPES WHERE AN INCH OR TWO OF SNOW POSSIBLE. ELSEWHERE WILL CUT               
 BACK POPS GIVEN DOWNSLOPE DRYING AND LOWERING DEWPTS. COULD BE A               
 PERIOD OF WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA BLUE RIDGE AS COLD AIR SURGES IN              
 EARLY TUE...OTRW BLUSTERY/COLD WITH HIGHS 30S WEST AND STEADY IN               
 THE 40S OUT EAST.                                                              
 LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...                                    
 QUIET BUT COLD WEATHER IN STORE EARLY IN THE PERIOD AS LARGE SURFACE           
 HIGH BUILDS EAST AND THEN SHIFTS OFFSHORE THU. FORTUNATELY CORE OF             
 ARCTIC AIR WILL SLIDE BY TO THE NORTH...WITH COLDER 85H TEMPS                  
 LIFTING OUT THRU THURSDAY ALLOWING A SLOW TEMP MODERATION UNDER                
 SUNSHINE. NEXT 5H TROF WILL SWING SE TOWARD THE MID ATLANTIC BY                
 FRIDAY AS QUICK SHOT OF SOUTHERN STREAM RH ATTEMPTS TO LINK UP ALONG           
 THE COAST LATE THU NIGHT/EARLY FRIDAY. GFS FARTHEST WEST OF ANY                
 MODELS WITH SECONDARY WEAK SURFACE LOW WHILE THE REST WELL                     
 SOUTH/EAST WITH RH LINKAGE. SINCE APPEARS FLOW TOO FAST FOR MUCH               
 PHASING...WILL CONTINUE WITH ISOLATED POPS WITH THE NEXT FRONT FOR             
 NOW. OTRW LOOKS LIKE YET ANOTHER COLD SHOT FOR NEXT WEEKEND BUT DRY            
 OUTSIDE UPSLOPE -SHSN UNDER NORTHERN STREAM TROF. WILL LOWER HIGHS A           
 BIT SAT/SUNDAY AS AIRMASS LOOKS COLDER OTRW FEW CHANGES.                       
 CLIMATE...                                                                     
 RECORD HIGHS FOR JAN 15TH                                                      
  BLACKSBURG...61 IN 1971                                                       
  ROANOKE......73 IN 1952                                                       
  LYHCHBURG....75 IN 1932                                                       
  DANVILLE.....74 IN 1952                                                       
  BLUEFIELD....60 IN 1995                                                       
 PREV DISCUSSION...                                                             
 /ISSUED 1245 AM EST MON JAN 15 2007/                                           
 AVIATION...                                                                    
 GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH AT                 
 LEAST THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. COLD FRONT POISED TO SLOWLY MOVE              
 INTO THE AREA BY THE LATE AFTERNOON. THIS FEATURE WILL BRING MVFR              
 CONDITIONS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS TO SE WV AND THEN THESE WILL                  
 PROGRESS THROUGH THE AREA IN ASSOCIATION TO THE FRONT. BY MONDAY               
 EVENING THE FRONT SHOULD BE THROUGH THE REGION WITH WINDS WESTERLY             
 ACROSS THE AREA WITH CEILINGS RETURNING TO VFR LEVELS.                         
 STRONG LOW LEVEL JET IN ADVANCE OF THE COLD FRONT SHOULD HELP                  
 MAINTAIN LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR ABOVE THE WV TAF SITES THROUGH                   
 SUNRISE TODAY.                                                                 
 PREV DISCUSSION...                                                             
 /ISSUED 920 PM EST SUN JAN 14 2007/                                            
 UPDATE...                                                                      
 MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPS OVERNIGHT...MOSTLY UP A DEG OR TWO.             
 ITS GOING TO BE ANOTHER MILD NIGHT WITH PERIODS OF CLOUDINESS AND              
 LOW LEVEL MIXING INCREASING LATE AS SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT                      
 TIGHTENS. OTHERWISE NO CHGS.                                                   
 PREV DISCUSSION...                                                             
 /ISSUED 618 PM EST SUN JAN 14 2007/                                            
 AVIATION /23Z-18Z/...                                                          
 LARGE SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OFF THE MID ATLANTIC             
 AND SOUTHEASTERN COAST WILL GRADUALLY RETREAT EAST THROUGH THE                 
 PERIOD AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER NORTHEASTERN TEXAS AND LIFTS              
 NORTHEAST INTO THE OHIO VALLEY BY SUNRISE. INCREASING PRESSURE                 
 GRADIENT BETWEEN THE TWO SYSTEMS...AND SCATTERED TO BROKEN CANOPY OF           
 MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS...SHOULD MINIMIZE POTENTIAL FOR                      
 SIGNIFICANT RADIATIONAL COOLING AND KEEP THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE                  
 ADEQUATELY MIXED TO PREVENT DEVELOPMENT OF ANY WIDESPREAD FOG OR LOW           
 CEILING CONDITIONS.                                                            
 DESPITE THE ABOVE...THE REDEVELOPMENT OF SOME LOCALIZED FOG IN THE             
 MOST SHELTERED OF LOW LYING AREAS SUCH AS LEWISBURG WILL LIKELY                
 OCCUR AGAIN TONIGHT UNTIL SHORTLY AFTER DAYBREAK.                              
 OTHERWISE...THE APPROACH OF A STRONG COLD FRONT FROM THE NORTHWEST             
 WILL RESULT IN AN INCREASE OF CLOUDS AND THREAT OF PRECIPITATION               
 AS MONDAY PROGRESSES. THE BEST THREAT OF PRECIPITATION WILL ARRIVE             
 AFTER 18Z. VFR CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE TO MVFR...POSSIBLY IFR              
 ALONG WESTERN SLOPES DURING THE AFTERNOON. ALSO BEFORE THE FRONTAL             
 PRECIP ARRIVES...INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY JET WILL MIX TO THE                  
 SURFACE FROM MID MONDAY MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON. SUSTAINED              
 WINDS WILL BE ON THE ORDER OF 12-18KTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 25-30KTS.              
 HIGHER WINDS SPEEDS ARE POSSIBLE ABOVE 5KFT WITH A 50+KT LOW LEVEL             
 JET TRANSVERSING THE REGION.                                                   
 PREV DISCUSSION...                                                             
 /ISSUED 153 PM EST SUN JAN 14 2007/                                            
 SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...                                
 STRONG SHORT WAVE IN THE CENTRAL ROCKIES LIFTS INTO THE GREAT LAKES            
 ON MONDAY AND PUSHES THE UPPER TROF THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA ON               
 TUESDAY NIGHT.                                                                 
 IN AN EFFORT TO NARROW DOWN WHEN BEST CHANCE OF RAIN WILL BE WILL              
 REMOVE ANY CHANCE BEFORE NOON ON MONDAY. MODELS HAVE A SHORT WAVE              
 COMING THROUGH ON MONDAY EVENING WITH Q-V FORCING AND SOME                     
 FRONTOGENESIS. THERE ARE WEST TO SOUTHWEST LOW LEVEL WINDS AND NO              
 ISENTROPIC LIFT ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT HOWEVER...SO                      
 PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WILL BE LOW. GUIDANCE IS STILL SHOWING A SPLIT           
 IN RAINFALL AMOUNTS TO THE NORTHWEST AND SOUTH OF THE COUNTY WARNING           
 AREA.                                                                          
 BASING THE TIMING OF THE FRONT ON THE GFS. THE SURFACE FRONT COMES             
 THROUGH THE COUNTY WARNING AREA ON MONDAY EVENING...WITH THE 850 MB            
 FRONTAL PASSAGE ON TUESDAY MORNING. DEEP MOISTURE CROSSES THE                  
 FORECAST AREA BETWEEN 18Z MONDAY AND 06Z TUESDAY. THEN CLOUDS WILL             
 CLEAR IN THE SOUTHEAST ON TUESDAY AND IN THE NORTHWEST ON WEDNESDAY            
 MORNING. VERY DRY AIRMASS WILL THEN RESULT IN LITTLE TO NO CLOUD               
 COVER THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING.                                                
 HIGH PRESSURE NOW OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE           
 SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS...AND SURFACE DEWPOINTS AROUND ZERO BUILDS             
 IN BEHIND THE FRONT...CROSSES THE FORECAST AREA ON WEDNESDAY THEN              
 MOVES OFFSHORE BY THURSDAY MORNING. THE ARCTIC AIRMASS WILL MODIFY             
 BY THE TIME IT REACHES THE MID ATLANTIC STATES...BUT AREA IS STILL             
 LOOKING AT TEMPERATURES BY TUESDAY AROUND 25 DEGREES COLDER THAN THE           
 RECORD SETTING WARMTH TODAY. WILL HAVE STEADY OR FALLING TEMPERATURE           
 TRENDS ON TUESDAY ALONG WITH GUSTY WINDS. SURFACE WINDS WILL START             
 TO DIMINISH ON TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE HIGH APPROACHES.                           
 USED CURRENT TRENDS OF THE MAV GUIDANCE FOR LOWS TONIGHT AND HIGHS             
 ON MONDAY. BIGGEST DEPARTURE FROM MAV NUMBERS WAS TO RAISE MAXIMUM             
 TEMPERATURES FOR LEWISBURG.                                                    
 LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...                                         
 LARGE RANGE OF SOLUTIONS BETWEEN DIFFERENT MODELS BY THE END OF THE            
 WEEK. OPERATIONAL GFS HAS MORE PROGRESSIVE SOUTHWEST UNITED STATES             
 LOW AND STRONGER UPPER RIDGE IN THE SOUTHEAST WHILE ECMWF HAS A                
 DEEPER TROF IN THE NORTHEAST. GFS ENSEMBLES ARE A COMPROMISE BETWEEN           
 THESE SOLUTIONS WITH TROFING IN THE WEST AND ZONAL FLOW IN THE EAST            
 THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH A LONG WAVE TROF DIGGING IN THE NORTHEAST             
 UNTIED STATES BY SATURDAY.                                                     
 THIS WILL INFLUENCE HOW FAST ANY MOISTURE WILL RETURN IN THE WEST              
 SIDE OF THE ARCTIC HIGH. ALSO INDICATES ANY ORGANIZED SYNOPTIC LIFT            
 WILL BE IN THE REGION ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AS THE TROF DEEPENS IN            
 THE NORTHEAST. WILL INTRODUCE LOW CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION ON FRIDAY            
 AND SATURDAY. ALSO HAVE TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN MEX                  
 GUIDANCE FOR FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.                                            
 &&                                                                             
 .RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                            
 VA...NONE.                                                                     
 NC...NONE.                                                                     
 WV...NONE.                                                                     
 &&                                                                             
 $$                                                                             
 SHORT TERM...AMS                                                               
</pre> va                                                                       

 AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                       
 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA                                      
 314 PM EST MON JAN 15 2007                                                     
 .SHORT TERM...                                                                 
 TONIGHT AND TUESDAY                                                            
 ...MAJOR LAKE EFFECT SNOW EVENT TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY...                        
 FORECAST CONCERN IN THE SHORT TERM REVOLVES AROUND LAKE EFFECT SNOW            
 POTENTIAL LATER THIS EVENING THROUGH TUE AFTERNOON. FIRST...OUTSIDE            
 OF LAKE EFFECT AREAS A BAND OF SNOW IS MOVING THROUGH THE N/NW                 
 PORTION OF THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON ALONG FIRST OF SEVERAL SECONDARY             
 COLD FRONTS. THE TRUE ARCTIC FRONT LIES OVER SOUTHERN WISCONSIN AND            
 CENTRAL LOWER MICHIGAN WITH REGIONAL RADARS SHOWING ANOTHER BAND OF            
 ENHANCED SNOW ALONG AND BEHIND THIS FEATURE. ALSO A LARGE AREA OF              
 LIGHT SNOW ASSOCIATED WITH DECAYING DEFORMATION AXIS UPSTREAM FROM             
 NORTHERN ILLINOIS INTO LOWER MICHIGAN. GIVEN LOOK OF UPSTREAM RADARS           
 AND EXPECTED PASSAGE OF MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS AND ASSOCIATED LIFT...           
 MAY SEE A GENERAL LIGHT SNOWFALL ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA TONIGHT.               
 WILL PROBABLY END UP GOING WITH LOW LIKELY POPS AND A COATING OF               
 ACCUMS IN MOST AREAS...EXCEPT FOR THE FAR SOUTH.                               
 NOW FOR THE LAKE EFFECT. FORECAST SURFACE PRESSURE FIELDS SHOW A               
 CLASSIC PATTERN RECOGNITION FOR A BIG SOUTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN EVENT             
 WITH A 1040+MB ARCTIC HIGH BUILDING SOUTH DOWN THE PLAINS. UPSTREAM            
 RADARS SHOWING HEALTHY BANDS OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW DEVELOPING ON                 
 NORTHERLY FETCH OF LAKE SUPERIOR AND ANOTHER OFF GREEN BAY AFFECTING           
 THE DOOR PENINSULA. LAST FEW RUNS OF THE NAM-WRF AND THE FSL                   
 EXPERIMENTAL 13KM RUC HAVE BEEN REASONABLY CONSISTENT IN DEVELOPING            
 A WELL DEFINED SINGLE BAND TONIGHT DOWN THE LONG AXIS OF LAKE                  
 MICHIGAN. INSTABILITY IS VERY GOOD WITH LAKE INDUCED CAPES EXCEEDING           
 500J/KG AND EQUILIBRIUM LEVELS ABOVE 700MB. CLOUD BEARING LAYER AND            
 ASSOCIATED MODEL INDUCED OMEGA SHOWING A NICE BULLSEYE SIGNATURE               
 INTERSECTING THE FAVORED DENDRITIC SNOW GROWTH ZONE. MESOSCALE                 
 MODELS ALSO SUGGESTING AN UPSTREAM CONNECTION TO LAKE SUPERIOR FOR             
 AWHILE TONIGHT...WHICH IS A CLASSIC HALLMARK OF OUR BIG EVENTS AT              
 THE SOUTH END OF LAKE MICHIGAN. CONVERGENCE ALREADY BEGINNING TO               
 DEVELOP DOWN THE AXIS OF THE LAKE AS NOTED IN SURFACE OBS ALONG THE            
 E AND W SHORELINES...AND NAM-WRF STRENGTHENS LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE             
 FIELD AS IT ARCS CYCLONICALLY INTO NW INDIANA AND SW LOWER MICHIGAN.           
 ALL SIGNS POINT TOWARDS THE POTENTIAL OF A MAJOR LAKE EFFECT SNOW              
 EVENT...WHICH HAS BEEN A RARITY AROUND HERE THE PAST FEW SEASONS               
 GIVEN THE WARM TEMPERATURES.                                                   
 THE FORECAST DETAILS...WILL BE UPGRADING THE LES WATCH TO A WARNING            
 FOR BERRIEN...CASS...ST JOSEPH...AND ELKHART COUNTIES. THE REMAINDER           
 OF THE COUNTIES IN THE WATCH WILL BE UPGRADED TO AN ADVISORY. MAY              
 SEE A RATHER INTENSE BAND ACROSS PARTS OF LAPORTE...STARKE...                  
 MARSHALL...AND KOSCIUSKO COUNTIES...HOWEVER EXPECT THE BAND TO                 
 REMAIN TRANSIENT THROUGH THESE COUNTIES AND NOT STAY OVER ONE SPOT             
 LONG ENOUGH TO DROP WARNING CRITERIA. IF IT BECOMES APPARENT THAT              
 THE BAND WILL GO STATIONARY FOR SEVERAL HOURS OVER ONE OF THESE                
 COUNTIES THAN AN UPGRADE MAY BE NEEDED. EXPECT THE MAJOR SINGLE BAND           
 TO BREAK APART INTO MULTIPLE BANDS...WEAKEN...AND SPREAD EAST ON TUE           
 AFTERNOON AS FLOW BACKS AND SYNOPTIC SCALE SUBSIDENCE INCREASES.               
 STORM TOTALS OF 6 TO 12 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE IN SOME LOCATIONS IN THE           
 WARNING COUNTIES...WITH LOCAL AMOUNTS OF OVER A FOOT POSSIBLE WHERE            
 BANDS PERSIST THE LONGEST.                                                     
 &&                                                                             
 .LONG TERM...                                                                  
 TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY                                                   
 RATHER DRAMATIC PATTN SHIFT HAS COMMENCED W/DEEP NEG HGT ANOMALY               
 FORECAST TO DVLP ACRS ERN CANADA BY THIS WEEKEND AND OF WHICH                  
 CONSIDERING THE BACKDROP OF NAO/AO TELECONNECTIONS GOING SLIGHTLY              
 NEGATIVE SUGGEST A CONTD INFLUX OF ARCTIC AIR INTO THE NC/NE US AND            
 ESP SO EARLY NXT WEEK IF PROGGED CROSS POLAR FLW DVLPS AS SUGGESTED            
 PER GFS ENSEMBLES.                                                             
 MAIN STORY IS ARRIVAL OF TRUE WINTERTIME AIRMASS W/TEMPS AOB NORMAL            
 FOR A CHANGE THIS WEEK AND SNOW POTENTIAL W/SHARPENING ERN US                  
 TROUGHING AND NXT ARCTIC INTRUSION BY WEEKS END.                               
 COLDER SLANT OF 12Z GFS PREFERRED ESP IN LIGHT OF SHRT TERM LK                 
 EFFECT SNOW POTENTIAL AND SUPPRESSION OF ANY SIG SRN STREAM DVLPMNT            
 THIS WEEK BOTH OF WHICH KEEPS SEASONABLY COLD AIR IN PLACE. DIFFS              
 AMG MED RANGE GUIDANCE REMAIN W/DEPTH/INTENSITY OF SHARPENING NRN              
 STREAM TROUGH FRI/SAT AND MORE IMPORTANTLY LL FLW TRAJECTORIES                 
 DOWNSTREAM OF LK MI. CURRENT GRIDS HAVE THIS IN MIND W/LOW CHC POPS            
 FAVORED FRI-SAT AND LEFT AS IS. OTHERWISE BIGGER ISSUES CROP UP                
 W/HANDLING OF SRN STREAM CUTOFF LATE THIS WEEKEND AND EARLY NXT WEEK           
 W/BULK OF MED RANGE GUIDANCE SUGGESTING THIS SYS WILL KICK OUT INTO            
 THE PLAINS LATE THIS WEEKEND AHD OF RENEWED NRN STREAM FORCED WRN              
 TROUGH DVLPMNT...AND W/COLD AIR IN PLACE DOWNSTREAM THINGS MAY GET             
 INTERESTING SUNDAY AND MONDAY W/AT LEAST LOW CHC POPS WARRANTED FOR            
 MAINLY SNOW THEN.                                                              
 &&                                                                             
 .IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                            
 IN...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 PM EST              
      TUESDAY FOR INZ004-INZ005.                                                
      LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 AM CST              
      TUESDAY FOR INZ003-INZ012.                                                
      LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 PM EST             
      TUESDAY FOR INZ014-INZ016.                                                
 MI...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 PM EST              
      TUESDAY FOR MIZ077-MIZ078.                                                
 OH...NONE.                                                                     
 LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EST TUESDAY FOR LMZ043-LMZ046.            
 &&                                                                             
 $$                                                                             
 SHORT TERM...HITCHCOCK                                                         
 LONG TERM...HOLSTEN                                                            
</pre> in                                                                       

 AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                       
 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS                                         
 154 PM CST MON JAN 15 2007                                                     
 .DAYS 1-2...                                                                   
 MAIN CHALLENGE IS THE FIRST PERIOD AND JUST HOW COLD IT WILL GET               
 TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY OUT WEST OVER THE HIGH PLAINS "GLACIER".                  
 NORTHWEST WINDS WILL ABATE BY EARLY EVENING AND SHOULD SEE                     
 TEMPERATURES DROP RAPIDLY INTO THE 3 TO 6F DEGREE RANGE JUST BEFORE            
 MIDNIGHT.  THE AMOUNT OF CONTINUED DROPPING OF TEMPERATURE WILL BE             
 CONTROLLED BY HOW MUCH WIND THERE WILL BE...THE NAM AND RUC BOTH               
 SUGGEST JUST ENOUGH OF A NORTHWEST WIND AROUND 4 TO 6 KNOTS TO KEEP            
 FROM WIDESPREAD BELOW ZERO READINGS.  HOWEVER IF WINDS DO SLACKEN              
 OFF TO DEAD CALM FOR A FEW HOURS...THEN WE SHOULD SEE QUITE A FEW              
 READINGS IN THE -4 TO -8F RANGE...THIS IS STILL RATHER UNCERTAIN SO            
 WILL GO WITH AROUND -2 TO -3 OVER THE SNOWPACK IN THE WEST TO AROUND           
 +2 OR +3 OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN CWA.                                            
 FOR TUESDAY...CENTER OF 900MB ANTICYCLONE WILL BE PRETTY MUCH                  
 CENTERED OVER SOUTHWEST KANSAS BY LATE AFTERNOON.  WINDS WILL BE               
 VERY LIGHT DURING THE DAY...AND AM NOT EXPECTING MUCH OF A WARM-UP             
 OVER WHAT WE ARE SEEING TODAY FOR HIGHS...WITH PERHAPS A FEW UPPER             
 20S READINGS WHERE THERE IS MORE BARE GROUND OVER CENTRAL PORTIONS             
 OF THE CWA.                                                                    
 TUESDAY NIGHT...LOW LEVEL ANTICYCLONE FINALLY SHIFTS FAR ENOUGH                
 SOUTHEAST TO PUT SOUTHWEST KS INA RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW...IT                   
 CERTAINLY WILL NOT BE A WARM WIND THOUGH.  LOWS TUES NIGHT WILL NOT            
 BE AS COLD WITH STRONGER SOUTH WINDS EXPECTED.  LEESIDE PRESSURE               
 FALLS WILL OCCUR IN ADVANCE OF BOTH A NORTHERN STREAM MID LEVEL                
 TROUGH AND A WEAK SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM.                                      
 WEDNESDAY...SOUTH WINDS WILL INCREASE QUITE A BIT WITH LEE TROUGH              
 BECOMING STRONGER TO THE NORTHWEST AS MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH               
 PASS THROUGH THE PLAINS.  A NORTHWARD SURGE OF LOWER-MID                       
 TROPOSPHERIC MOISTURE IS ALSO EXPECTED...HOWEVER LIMITED LIFT AND              
 BAROCLINICITY WILL NEGATE PRECIPITATION FORMATION...JUST AN INCREASE           
 IN CLOUDS BY MIDDAY. -UMSCHEID                                                 
 .DAYS 3-7...                                                                   
 MODELS DIFFER SLIGHTLY ON LOCATION OF UPPER CLOSED LOW LINGERING               
 OVER THE PACIFIC JUST WEST OF THE SOUTHERN CA COAST. ALSO SEEING               
 DISCREPANCIES BETWEEN MODELS REGARDING DEPTH OF TROUGHING ACROSS THE           
 CENTRAL PLAINS (MAINLY ACROSS WESTERN KS). GFS/CANADIAN ARE A BIT              
 DEEPER ALLOWING SLIGHTLY COLDER H85 TEMPERATURES TO SPILL ACROSS THE           
 CWA. UKMET IS SLOWEST SOLUTION BRINGING THE H5 CLOSED LOW INTO THE             
 CONUS. OTHER MODELS ALL MOVE LOW ONSHORE BY 00Z SUN. FOR NOW, A                
 MODEL BLEND WITH LESS WEIGHT ON THE OUTLIER, THE UKMET, WILL BE USED.          
 MAIN QUESTION CONTINUES TO BE PRECIPITATION CHANCES INTO THE WEEKEND.          
 MUCH UNCERTAINTY REMAINS ON HOW/WHEN UPPER LOW WILL MOVE INTO                  
 SOUTHERN CA. ONCE ONSHORE, THE SYSTEM LOCATION WILL MAKE A BIG                 
 DIFFERENCE ON WHETHER OR NOT WESTERN KS WILL RECEIVE ANY                       
 PRECIPITATION. MODELS DO HANG ONTO A DECENT SUBTROPICAL JET ALLOWING           
 PLENTY OF MOISTURE RETURN ACROSS WESTERN TX. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE              
 FORECAST TO MOVE SOUTH THUS KEEPING BULK OF PRECIP SOUTH OF CWA.               
 EVEN IF MOISTURE DOES MAKE IT INTO SOUTHWEST KS, IT DOES NOT APPEAR            
 THAT IT WILL ARRIVE UNTIL LATE SATURDAY NIGHT OR SUNDAY (GIVE                  
 SOLUTION IS CORRECT). DECIDED TO BACK OFF ON POPS ACROSS CWA DURING            
 THIS PERIOD. HAVE LEFT A SLIGHT CHANCE ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN                 
 COUNTIES STARTING SATURDAY NIGHT SINCE IT IS POSSIBLE THAT SOME                
 MOISTURE WILL MAKE IT INTO THIS REGION. REMAINDER OF CWA WILL BE               
 DRY. ONCE AGAIN, WILL HAVE TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON EVOLUTION OF THIS            
 SYSTEM SINCE DETAILS ARE RATHER SKETCHY AT PRESENT.                            
 BESIDES WEATHER AND POPS, NO OTHER MAJOR GRID CHANGES WERE MADE.               
 &&                                                                             
 .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                               
 DDC   1  27   9  33 /   0   0   0   0                                          
 GCK  -3  26   7  31 /   0   0   0   0                                          
 EHA   1  27  13  32 /   0   0   0   0                                          
 LBL   2  29  13  33 /   0   0   0   0                                          
 HYS   0  24   9  33 /   0   0   0   0                                          
 P28   2  24   6  30 /   0   0   0   0                                          
 &&                                                                             
 .DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                            
 NONE.                                                                          
 &&                                                                             
 $$                                                                             
 FN25/30                                                                        
</pre> ks                                                                       

 AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                       
 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY                                         
 328 PM EST MON JAN 15 2007                                                     
 .SHORT TERM (TONIGHT AND TUESDAY)..                                            
 FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT HAS BEEN RESPONSIBLE FOR THE RAINY WEATHER OF            
 LATE CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST THROUGH THE COMMONWEALTH.  LARGE POST              
 FRONTAL BAND OF PRECIPITATION CONTINUES TO AFFECT THE SOUTHEASTERN             
 HALF OF THE FA.  PRECIPITATION CONTINUES TO MOVE STEADILY EASTWARD             
 AND SHOULD EXIT THE LMK FORECAST AREA BETWEEN 400 AND 500 PM EST.              
 TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO FALL IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT.                        
 SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER AIR STILL RESIDES WELL WEST OF THE FA.                    
 TEMPERATURES ARE FALLING INTO THE UPPER 30S NOW ACROSS THE NORTHWEST           
 CWA AND THIS TREND SHOULD CONTINUE.  THE RUC SFC TEMP FCST HAS BEEN            
 DOING A BANG UP JOB WITH THIS AND WILL FOLLOW ITS FORECAST CLOSELY             
 FOR TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.  WITH THE THREAT OF               
 EXCESSIVE RAIN COMING TO AN END...THE FLOOD WATCH WILL BE ALLOWED TO           
 EXPIRE AT 400 PM EST/300 PM CST.                                               
 FOR TONIGHT...SHORT TERM MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN GOOD AGREEMENT               
 THROUGH THE FIRST 24 HOURS OF THE FCST PD.  POST FRONTAL PRECIP IS             
 FCST TO BE WELL EAST OF THE FA BY 00Z TONIGHT.  LATEST RUC AND WRF             
 SOUNDINGS SUPPORT STEEPENING LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES THROUGH THE                 
 EVENING THAT WOULD PROMOTE AREAS OF DRIZZLE INITIALLY THROUGH ABOUT            
 03Z.  AFTER THAT...SUFFICIENT TOP-DOWN COOLING WOULD RESULT IN A               
 TRANSITION OVER TO SNOW FLURRIES FROM WEST TO EAST.  UPSTREAM RADARS           
 SHOWING SOME LIGHT SNOWS ACROSS NORTHERN MISSOURI AND NW ILLINOIS              
 DROPPING EAST-SOUTHEAST. MODELS GENERALLY WEAKEN THIS AREA AND SHIFT           
 IT NORTH OF THE OHIO RIVER. HOWEVER...WILL NEED TO WATCH THIS                  
 CLOSELY AS THE EVENING PROGRESSES. SFC TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO           
 SLOWLY FALL THROUGH THE EVENING...WITH TEMPERATURES DROPPING TO NEAR           
 FREEZING AROUND BETWEEN 06-08Z.  OVERNIGHT MINIMUMS LOOKS TO COOL              
 INTO THE MID AND UPPER 20S.                                                    
 TUESDAY...AS FRONTAL BOUNDARY CONTINUES EAST...HIGH PRESSURE IS                
 FORECAST TO BUILD IN ACROSS THE MIDWEST.  RESULTANT LOW-LEVEL FLOW             
 WITH BE FROM THE NORTH/NORTH-NORTHWEST. WITH THE LAKES FAIRLY WARM             
 DUE TO RECENT MILD WEATHER...LAKE EFFECT SNOW MACHINE IS FORECAST TO           
 CRANK UP.  BOTH WRF AND GFS SOLUTIONS SHOW BEST LAPSE RATES FOR SNOW           
 SHOWERS ACROSS THE NE THIRD OF OUR FA (BLUEGRASS REGION).  THUS WILL           
 CONTINUE CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THAT AREA.  STRONG COLD                 
 ADVECTION IS FCST TO CONTINUE AND AFTERNOON TEMPS WILL NOT RISE MUCH           
 DURING THE AFTERNOON.  HIGHS IN THE UPPER 20S TO THE VERY LOW 30S              
 LOOK LIKELY.  GENERALLY TRENDED TEMPS CLOSER TO RAW 2M SFC TEMPS               
 FROM OUR LOCAL HI-REZ WRF AND GFS SOLUTIONS.                                   
 -MJ                                                                            
 .LONG TERM (TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)...                                   
 TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...                                                 
 WE WILL FINALLY SEE A GENERAL CLEARING TAKE PLACE ON LATE ON                   
 TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE                   
 REGION AND THEN SHIFTS OFF TO THE EAST ON WEDNESDAY. A RETURN TO               
 MUCH COLDER BUT MORE NORMAL TEMPS.                                             
 WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...                                            
 WE WILL PRIMARILY BE UNDER A NORTHWESTERLY FLOW REGIME AT 500 MB               
 AS THE WESTERN RIDGE...INITIALLY FLATTENED BY A SHORT WAVE ON TUESDAY          
 THEN REBUILDS INTO SOUTHWESTERN CANADA...THE ABOVE MENTIONED SHORT             
 WAVE WILL DROP ESE THROUGH THE CENTRAL U.S. AND BRING ANOTHER SURGE            
 OF SEASONABLY COLD ARCTIC AIR INTO THE REGION AS A SURFACE RIDGE               
 BUILDS SOUTHEAST INTO THE WESTERN PLAINS. A SERIES OF WEAKER SYSTEMS           
 DRIFTING BY TO OUR NORTH AND EAST SHOULD HELP TO REINFORCE AND KEEP            
 THE COLD AND DRY AIR IN PLACE THROUGH THE REST OF THIS PERIOD. THIS            
 COULD LEAD TO SOME MIXED WINTERY PRECIPITATION LATER.                          
 .SUNDAY AND MONDAY...                                                          
 THE GENERAL CONSENSUS IS THAT A CLOSED LOW WILL SETUP OFF THE                  
 SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST LATE THIS WEEK. OVER THE WEEKEND THIS                
 SYSTEM OPEN AND TREK ENE INTO THE CENTRAL U.S. BY LATE ON SUNDAY               
 INTO MONDAY. INITIAL INDICATIONS ARE THAT THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BE               
 COLD ENOUGH FOR A POSSIBLE SNOW TO RAIN SCENARIO ON SUNDAY NIGHT               
 THAT DOES CHANGE OVER TO ALL RAIN ON MONDAY AS A SURFACE LOW MOVES             
 INTO THE CENTRAL U.S. FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. --21                           
 &&                                                                             
 .LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                            
 KY...NONE.                                                                     
 IN...NONE.                                                                     
 &&                                                                             
 $$                                                                             
 WFO LMK                                                                        
</pre> ky                                                                       

 AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                       
 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                          
 410 PM EST MON JAN 15 2007                                                     
 .DISCUSSION...                                                                 
 MAIN FCST CONCERNS ARE LES TRENDS TONIGHT INTO TUE AND SNOW/LES                
 POTENTIAL WITH NEXT MID LVL TROF AND COLD FRONT THU INTO FRI.                  
 WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS INDICATED A MID/UPPER LEVEL TROF FROM              
 NRN QUEBEC THROUGH NRN MN AND THE CNTRL PLAINS TO THE SW CONUS AND             
 RDG FROM THE PAC NW INTO NRN ALBERTA. AN INCREASINGLY SHEARED SHRTWV           
 WAS SLIDING E THROUGH E UPR MI AND ERN WI. AT THE SFC...BRISK NRLY             
 WINDS PREVAILED ACRS THE WRN GRT LAKES BTWN LOW PRES OVER NY AND A             
 RDG FROM NRN ONTARIO INTO THE NRN PLAINS. RADARS INDICATED THAT                
 LIGHT SNOW SUPPORTED BY 700-300 QVECTOR AHEAD OF THE MID LVL TROF              
 WAS DIMINISHING BUT VSBYS REMAINED GENERALLY IN THE 2-4SM RANGE FROM           
 NRN WI INTO SRN UPR MI AT 20Z. MULTIPLE WIND PARALLEL LES BANDS INTO           
 NRN UPR MI WERE BRINGING OCNLY HEAVY SNOW ESPECIALLY INTO THE HIGHER           
 TERRAIN. BANDS WERE SHIFTING THOUGH AS WINDS BACK FROM NNE TO N.               
 PLENTY OF INSTABILITY/MOISTURE AVBL FOR LES AS 17Z KSAW/KCMX TAMDAR            
 SNDGS INDICATED DEEP MOISTURE OVER THE AREA WITH -19C/-21C AT TOP OF           
 6K FT INVERSION AND 850 MB TEMPS OF -17C/-20C. UPSTREAM...VERY DRY             
 ARCTIC AIR WAS FILTERING INTO N AND W LK SUPERIOR WHERE SFC                    
 DEWPOINTS WERE -10F TO -20F. AS A RESULT...LAKE CLOUDS WERE                    
 DEVELOPING CLOSER TO THE SOUTH SHORE OF THE LAKE.                              
 TONIGHT...EXPECT THE REMAINING LIGHT SNOW OVER S UPR MI TO TAPER OFF           
 TO SCT LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES EARLY THIS EVENING...PER RADAR           
 AND SATELLITE TRENDS. SO...THE SNOW ADVY OVER THE SOUTH WILL BE                
 DROPPED. GIVEN THE CLOUD TRENDS OVER THE WEST AND UPSTREAM 1000-850            
 RH IN THE 30-50 PCT RANGE...THE LES SHOULD ALSO DIMINISH THIS                  
 EVENING. SINCE SOME MINOR ACCUMULATIONS OF AN INCH OR TWO ARE STILL            
 POSSIBLE WILL LEAVE THE WARNING/ADVISORIES INTACT. THE LONGER FETCH            
 WILL HELP SUSTAIN THE LES INTO N CNTRL AND E UPR MI EVEN WITH THE              
 DEPARTURE OF THE 850-700 MB MOISTURE. MDLS ARE CONSISTENT WITH THE             
 GRADUAL BACKING TREND WHICH WILL MOVE THE BEST LOW LVL CONV FROM               
 MARQUETTE COUNTY TO ALGER/LUCE COUNTIES OVERNIGHT. SINCE LES                   
 INTENSITY IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH BY LATE THIS EVENING...NO                    
 ADJUSTMENT TO 04Z WARNING/ADVISORY EXPIRATIONS EWAS MADE. ADDITIONAL           
 ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE GREATEST THIS EVENING IN THE 1-4 INCH RANGE              
 WITH ONLY 1-2 INCH AMOUNTS...MAINLY E OF MARQUETTE AFT 04Z.                    
 TUE...NW FLOW LES WILL CONTINUE WITH ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED MAINLY             
 OVER THE ERN CWA. ALTHOUGH 850 TEMP TEMPS WILL REMAIN NEAR                     
 -20C...THE RELATIVELY SHALLOW COLD AIR(INVERSION HEIGHT NEAR 4K FT)            
 WILL NOT BE FAVORABLE FOR SNOW GROWTH OR FORMATION OF STRONGER                 
 DOMINANT BANDS. SO...EXPECT AMOUNTS TO REMAIN IN THE 2-4 INCH RANGE            
 WITH THE GREATEST AMOUNTS BTWN MUNISING AND NEWBERRY. THE SHORTER              
 FETCH INTO W UPR MI WILL LEAD TO ONLY MINOR ACCUMULATIONS. WINDS               
 WILL BACK SWRLY TUE NIGHT...PUSHING ANY REMAINING LES OFFSHORE WITH            
 ONLY MINOR ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS OVER THE FAR NE CWA.                       
 WED...BRISK SW FLOW AND WAA DEVELOPING BTWN THE DEPARTING SFC RDG              
 AND TROF DEVELOPING OVER THE PLAINS WILL BRING A QUICK WARMUP WITH             
 TEMPS AOA NORMAL INTO THE MID AND UPPER 20S ALONG WITH PARTLY TO               
 MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES.                                                            
 THU INTO FRI...THE GFS TIMING LAGGED THE PREFERRED                             
 UKMET/ECMWF/CANADIAN WITH THE NEXT MID LVL TROF MOVING INTO THE                
 AREA. ALTHOUGH LITTLE MOISTURE WILL BE AVAILABLE WITH THE SYSTEM AND           
 THE GFS IS LIKELY A BIT GENEROUS WITH THE QPF...THE TROF                       
 STRENGTH/DYNAMICS JUSTIFY -SN CHANCES ACRS THE CWA. LES WILL RETURN            
 IN THE WAKE OF THE SYSTEM AS THE ECMWF/GFS SHOW CAA DROPPING 850 MB            
 TEMPS INTO THE -16C TO -20C BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. NW FLOW FAVORED             
 AREAS SHOULD SEE BEST CHANCE FOR SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS ALTHOUGH            
 THE GFS HINTS AT POSSIBILITY OF WINDS VEERING MORE NRLY FOR A TIME             
 FRI AS A SECONDARY TROF AND WEAK SHRTWV MOVES THROUGH.                         
 SAT THROUGH MON...GENERALLY FOLLOWING THE HPC PREFERRED 00Z                    
 ECMWF/NCEP ENS MEAN WOULD SHIFT LES FOCUS TO W FLOW FAVORED                    
 LOCATIONS BY SAT WITH LES DIMINISHING SUN AS 850 TEMPS CLIMB ABOVE             
 -10C. AND WINDS BECOME VARIABLE AND E LATE SUN. UNCERTAINTY                    
 INCREASES SIGNIFICANTLY...PER MDLS AND ENSEMBLES SPREAD...BY MON               
 WITH POSITION AND STRENGTH OF THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT MID LVL TROF AND            
 SFC LOW WHICH BRINGS CHANCE OF SNOW ACRS THE CWA.                              
 &&                                                                             
 .MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                            
 LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR                     
 MIZ001>004-006-084-085.                                                        
 LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL 11 PM EST /10 PM CST/ THIS                      
 EVENING FOR MIZ005-009.                                                        
 &&                                                                             
 $$                                                                             
 JLB                                                                            
</pre> mi                                                                       

 AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                       
 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI                                    
 329 PM EST MON JAN 15 2007                                                     
 .SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND TUESDAY                                              
 WITH OUR RECENT STORM TRACKING EAST OF THE GREAT LAKES...RESIDUAL              
 DEFORMATION AXIS OF SNOW WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING.             
 CROSS SECTIONS NICELY DEPICT THIS DEFORMATION ZONE CENTERED BETWEEN            
 600-700MB WITH VISIBILITIES UNDER THE BAND OF SNOW DROPPING TO LESS            
 THAN 1 MILE.  IN FACT...SOME LAKE HURON CONTRIBUTION IS NOTED WITH A           
 NARROW BAND OF SNOW COMING DOWN ACROSS SAGINAW BAY INTO MBS WITH 1/4           
 MILE VISIBILITY.  LATEST RUC INCLUDING THE 12Z MODEL SUITE SUGGEST             
 THE 1000-850MB WIND WILL BACK TOWARD THE NORTH THIS EVENING AS THIS            
 DEFORMATION AXIS SWINGS SOUTH-SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE STATE.  SPECIFIC            
 HUMIDITIES ARE RUNNING AROUND 1 G/KG AND ACCUMULATIONS COULD ADD UP            
 TO ANOTHER 1 INCH NORTH OF M59 THIS EVENING.  FURTHER SOUTH...WITH             
 THE BOUNDARY LAYER BECOMING MORE NORTHERLY...EXPECT SOME DOWNSLOPING           
 INFLUENCES TO REDUCE THE SNOWFALL AMOUNTS AND DEFORMATION AXIS                 
 WEAKENING AS THE SURFACE TROUGH AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SWING                   
 SOUTHEAST OF THE STATE.  THEN THE REAL COLD ADVECTION TAKES SHAPE              
 TONIGHT WITH CONCERN SHIFTING TOWARD LAKE EFFECT SNOW FOR PORTIONS             
 OF THE THUMB.                                                                  
 BOTH THE NAM AND GFS ARE IN RATHER GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE                     
 1000-850MB FLOW WHICH IS RATHER PERSISTENT (360 DEGREES) FOR MOST OF           
 THE NIGHT.  TOWARD 09Z-12Z...FLOW BACKS A LITTLE MORE TAKING THE               
 BAND OFFSHORE BUT STILL TOUCHING THE M10 CORRIDOR IN HURON COUNTY.             
 INVERSION HEIGHTS CLIMB...PER BUFKIT PROFILES...FROM NEAR 850MB TO             
 BETWEEN 800-750MB WITH LAKE INDUCED CAPES CLIMBING TOWARD 300 J/KG             
 AND LAKE DELTA T/S INTO THE MIDDLE TEENS CELSIUS.  925MB CONVERGENCE           
 AND OMEGA FIELDS LOOK RATHER IMPRESSIVE ACROSS HURON...SANILAC AND             
 TOUCHING NORTHEAST ST CLAIR COUNTY OVERNIGHT SO ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL            
 IS EXPECTED.  LOCAL DECISION TREE SUGGESTS ANOTHER 2-4"/12HRS BUT              
 WITH THE BAND MOVING OFFSHORE...WILL CUT THOSE VALUES TO ANOTHER               
 1-3" AND MENTION BRIEF PERIODS OF HEAVY SNOW IN THE FORECAST/GRIDS.            
 WEATHER DOES QUIET DOWN ON TUESDAY WITH A COLD NORTHERLY FLOW AND              
 MOISTURE DECREASING.  THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME SUNNY BREAKS YET              
 THAT COULD HELP STEEPEN THE LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES...AND WOULD NOT BE           
 SURPRISED TO SEE SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS MOVING ACROSS THE CWA.                
 WILL KEEP THE LOW POPS FOR MOST AREAS AWAY FROM LAKE HURON...AS LAKE           
 BAND COULD STILL IMPACT THE M10 CORRIDOR IN HURON COUNTY.                      
 TEMPERATURES WILL BE QUITE CHILLY (OR SEASONABLE) TONIGHT AND                  
 TUESDAY WITH LOWS TONIGHT DROPPING BACK INTO THE TEENS.  ON TUESDAY            
 WITH 850MB TEMPS INTO THE NEGATIVE MID TEENS...WE WILL BE LUCKY TO             
 TOUCH 30F.                                                                     
 &&                                                                             
 .LONG TERM...                                                                  
 MODIFYING TREND WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY BEFORE ANOTHER SURGE                    
 OF ARCTIC AIR ARRIVES BY FRIDAY.                                               
 MEDIUM RANGE MODELS (12Z EUROPEAN/CANADIAN GLOBAL/GFS) IN DECENT               
 AGREEMENT THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND. AMPLIFIED UPPER               
 LEVEL RIDGE TO BUILD INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES ON WEDNESDAY.                
 TUESDAY NIGHT IS SHAPING UP TO BE THE COLDEST NIGHT OF THE SEASON              
 THUS FAR AS 1040+ MB HIGH SETS UP OVER THE NORTHERN OHIO VALLEY                
 WEDNESDAY MORNING. HOWEVER...RELATIVELY WARM GROUND AND LACK OF                
 SIGNIFICANT SNOW DEPTH OVER MUCH OF SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN SHOULD FACTOR           
 IN. WENT FAIRLY CLOSE TO GFS MOS GUIDANCE...UPPER SINGLE NUMBERS TO            
 LOWER TEENS. IF THIS WAS A MORE TYPICAL WINTER...WOULD HAVE EXPECTED           
 MINS DOWN AROUND ZERO.                                                         
 TRAILING UPPER WAVE OVER FAR SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA IS FORECASTED TO              
 EJECT OFF TO THE NORTHEAST...AS MORE VIGOROUS UPPER WAVES OVER THE             
 GULF OF ALASKA AND ALASKA EVENTUALLY CARVE OUT ANOTHER TROUGH OVER             
 THE NORTH CENTRAL CONUS ON THURSDAY. SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH              
 THE SOUTHERN WAVE...ALONG WITH MEAGER MOISTURE INDICATED BY MODELS             
 ON THURSDAY. NONE-THE-LESS...IT IS A DECENT WAVE AND POSSIBLE HELP             
 FROM LAKE MICHIGAN...PREFER TO CARRY A LOW CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW OR             
 FLURRIES BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THERE IS SOME SEMBLANCE OF AN                  
 850-700 MB THETA-E RIDGE/WEAK MOISTURE TRANSPORT MOVING THROUGH AS             
 WELL. A LITTLE BETTER CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS THURSDAY NIGHT AND                
 ESPECIALLY FRIDAY WITH COLD FRONT SLIDING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT AND           
 LAKE EFFECT LIKELY KICKING IN BY FRIDAY AS 850 MB TEMPS DROP TO -16            
 TO -18 C. ARCTIC AIRMASS LOOKS TO BE SLOW TO PUSH EAST ON                      
 SATURDAY...WITH A CONTINUED CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS.                            
 &&                                                                             
 .PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 1228 PM EST MON JAN 15 2007                          
 AVIATION...                                                                    
 WITH THE STORM TRACKING WELL TO OUR EAST...DEFORMATION AXIS SNOW               
 WILL IMPACT THE TRI CITIES REGION FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE                     
 AFTERNOON. WHILE THIS DEFORMATION AXIS WILL WEAKEN                             
 FURTHER...850-700MB TROUGH WILL SWING THROUGH TONIGHT AND MAY                  
 PROVIDE ADDITIONAL LIGHT SNOWFALL FOR THE ENTIRE REGION. THIS                  
 COULD BRING ABOUT BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS WITH MAINLY MVFR EXPECTED.              
 SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF THIS TROUGH COMBINING WITH NORTHWEST                 
 FLOW AND FAVORABLE DOWNSLOPING WILL OVERTAKE THE REGION LATE                   
 TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL REMAIN UP WITH              
 GENERALLY 10-15KTS...AND GUSTS AS HIGH AS 20KTS.                               
 &&                                                                             
 .DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                            
 MI...NONE.                                                                     
 LAKE HURON...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...SAGINAW BAY UNTIL 5 PM TUESDAY.            
      SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...NEARSHORE WATERS FROM PORT AUSTIN TO PORT HURON UNT
 LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.                                                          
 MI WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.                                                 
 &&                                                                             
 $$                                                                             
 SHORT TERM...BGM                                                               
 LONG TERM....SF                                                                
 YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE           
 AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).                                   
</pre> mi                                                                       

 AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                       
 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI                                    
 1228 PM EST MON JAN 15 2007                                                    
 .AVIATION...                                                                   
 WITH THE STORM TRACKING WELL TO OUR EAST...DEFORMATION AXIS SNOW               
 WILL IMPACT THE TRI CITIES REGION FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE                     
 AFTERNOON. WHILE THIS DEFORMATION AXIS WILL WEAKEN                             
 FURTHER...850-700MB TROUGH WILL SWING THROUGH TONIGHT AND MAY                  
 PROVIDE ADDITIONAL LIGHT SNOWFALL FOR THE ENTIRE REGION. THIS                  
 COULD BRING ABOUT BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS WITH MAINLY MVFR EXPECTED.              
 SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF THIS TROUGH COMBINING WITH NORTHWEST                 
 FLOW AND FAVORABLE DOWNSLOPING WILL OVERTAKE THE REGION LATE                   
 TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL REMAIN UP WITH              
 GENERALLY 10-15KTS...AND GUSTS AS HIGH AS 20KTS.                               
 &&                                                                             
 .PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 801 AM EST MON JAN 15 2007                           
 UPDATE...                                                                      
 BASED ON RADAR RETURNS...WILL BE DROPPING ALL WINTER WEATHER                   
 HEADLINES WITHIN THE NEXT HALF HOUR. THE REMAINDER OF THE                      
 PRECIPITATION TODAY WILL REMAIN LIGHT.                                         
 PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 629 AM EST MON JAN 15 2007                            
 SHORT TERM...TODAY                                                             
 THE 09Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A 1009MB LOW NEAR INDIANAPOLIS...               
 WHICH IS ASSOCIATED WITH A MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE OVER THE MID                   
 MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THIS WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW            
 IN ADVANCE OF THE LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL               
 PLAINS. MID LEVEL FRONTAL FORCING WITHIN THE ENTRANCE REGION OF A              
 170KT UPPER LEVEL JET OVER SOUTHERN QUEBEC HAS PROVIDED WIDESPREAD             
 PRECIPITATION ACROSS SOUTHERN MICHIGAN OVERNIGHT. LOW LEVEL                    
 SOUTHERLY FLOW HAS ADVECTED A SIGNIFICANT ENOUGH WEDGE OF WARM AIR             
 ALOFT TO ALLOW MOST OF THE PRECIP ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE I 69                  
 CORRIDOR TO FALL AS FREEZING RAIN...WITH SNOW AND SLEET MAINLY                 
 CONFINED TO THE SAGINAW VALLEY AND NORTHERN THUMB.                             
 SURFACE OBSERVATIONS ACROSS SE MI SHOW THE FREEZING LINE EXTENDING             
 ALONG A DETROIT TO ADRIAN LINE. IT APPEARS FROM THE SURFACE                    
 OBSERVATIONS THAT THE WEAK LOW LEVEL COLD AIR ADVECTION HAS NOT BEEN           
 ABLE TO OVERCOME THE LATENT HEAT RELEASE DUE TO FREEZING NEAR THE              
 SURFACE. THUS TEMPS HAVE INCREASED A COUPLE DEGREES OVER THE LAST              
 TWO HOURS. IN FACT...MOST OF WAYNE AND MONROE COUNTIES ARE NOW                 
 ABOVE FREEZING. THE LATEST AREA RADAR DATA SHOWS THE BACK EDGE OF              
 THE PRECIP NOW MOVING INTO SW LOWER MI...SUPPORTING THE FASTER GFS             
 AND RUC SOLUTIONS. BASED ON MODEL SOUNDINGS...PRECIP SHOULD                    
 TRANSITION TO FREEZING DRIZZLE BETWEEN 12Z AND 15Z AS MOISTURE                 
 ABOVE -10 C IS STRIPPED AWAY. THE NAM HOWEVER SHOWS SOME LINGERING             
 FRONTOGENESIS IN THE 700-600MB LAYER ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF               
 THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH 15Z WHICH CAN NOT BE RULED OUT GIVEN THE             
 STRENGTH OF THE UPPER JET.                                                     
 WITH THE EXCEPTION OF WAYNE AND MONROE COUNTIES...WILL KEEP THE                
 WARNINGS GOING THROUGH THE REST OF THE MORNING. WARNINGS MAY BE ABLE           
 TO BE DOWNGRADED TO FREEZING DRIZZLE ADVISORIES LATE THIS MORNING.             
 HAVE RECEIVED SEVERAL REPORTS OF QUARTER TO HALF INCH ICE                      
 ACCUMULATIONS. WITH SURFACE TEMPS HOVERING IN THE LOWER 30S...THE              
 MOST SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS HAVE BEEN ON ELEVATED SURFACES LIKE             
 TREES AND POWER LINES. THE MAIN UPDATE TO THE HEADLINES THIS MORNING           
 WAS TO ADJUST FOR MORE FREEZING RAIN FROM FNT TO PHN AS A LITTLE               
 MORE WARM AIR ALOFT ADVECTED INTO THE FORECAST AREA THAN EARLIER               
 MODELS SUGGESTED. THE ONLY OTHER MAJOR ADJUSTMENTS WAS TO DOWNGRADE            
 MONROE AND WAYNE COUNTIES TO AN ADVISORY WITH CURRENT TEMPS NOW                
 ABOVE FREEZING AT DTW/DET/TTF/DUH. CURRENT TRENDS ALSO SUPPORT A               
 LITTLE LOWER SNOWFALL TOTALS ACROSS THE SAGINAW VALLEY AND THUMB               
 REGION.                                                                        
 LOW LEVEL COLD AIR ADVECTION AND DEEPER MOISTURE WILL WRAP BACK INTO           
 THE AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON...TRANSITIONING ANY LINGERING DRIZZLE             
 TO LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS. WINDS WILL INCREASE TO THE 10 TO 20 MPH RANGE           
 BY THIS AFTERNOON...MAINLY NORTH OF M 59...WHICH MAY CAUSE SOME                
 ADDITIONAL PROBLEMS WITH TREES AND POWER LINES WEIGHTED DOWN WITH              
 ICE.                                                                           
 LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY                                        
 BY MONDAY NIGHT THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT BROUGHT A WINTER STORM            
 TO LOWER MICHIGAN WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE NEW ENGLAND                        
 STATES...WITH A THERMAL TROUGH EXTENDING BACK ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES           
 REGION. THE NAM SEEMS TO HAVE A BETTER HANDLE ON SHORTWAVE ENERGY              
 DROPPING SOUTH OUT OF CANADA BASED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND                  
 REINFORCES THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE REGION. A NUMBER OF                 
 SHORTWAVES WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. LIGHT             
 SNOW WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING ON MONDAY BEFORE SNOW SHOWERS              
 BECOME PRIMARILY DRIVEN BY LAKE EFFECT AND DECREASE IN COVERAGE                
 OVERNIGHT. THE NAM12 DOES INDICATE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE OVER THE              
 THUMB...SHIFTING OFFSHORE BY LATE AT NIGHT. GIVEN THE SHIFTING                 
 TRAJECTORY FOR LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS ...WILL KEEP ACCUMULATIONS ON THE           
 LOW SIDE IN THE 1-3 INCH RANGE.                                                
 ON TUESDAY A WEAK 850MB TROUGH COMBINED WITH CONTINUED CYCLONIC FLOW           
 AT THE SURFACE SHOULD YIELD NUMEROUS SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA.             
 THE SHOWERY NATURE OF THE SNOW WILL MAKE ACCUMULATIONS VARY                    
 WIDELY...BUT WILL EXPECT ACCUMULATIONS TO GENERALLY REMAIN AROUND AN           
 INCH OR LESS. INSTABILITY WILL PEAK TUESDAY EVENING AS THE UPPER               
 LEVEL COLD POOL MOVES SOUTH OVER THE AREA. MODEL SOUNDINGS OVER                
 SOUTHERN LAKE HURON INDICATE 850 J/KG OF LAKE INDUCED CAPE AND                 
 EQUILIBRIUM LEVELS OVER 14000 FEET. WILL EXPECT ANOTHER ROUND OF               
 SNOW SHOWERS AS THE 700MB TROUGH AXIS PASSES AND WILL CONTINUE TO              
 CARRY SOME ADDITIONAL LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS OVER THE THUMB INTO THE              
 OVERNIGHT HOURS.                                                               
 SKIES WILL START TO SCATTER OUT LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE            
 BUILDS FROM THE SOUTHWEST. WILL GO SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW GUIDANCE              
 OVER OUR SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES THAT ARE CLOSER TO THE SURFACE HIGH.            
 THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY WITH WARM              
 AIR ADVECTION BEGINNING AS SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW INCREASES ON THE WEST            
 SIDE OF THE SURFACE HIGH. MODELS ADVERTISE THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL                
 TROUGH TO QUICKLY APPROACH BY THE END OF THE WEEK WITH A NUMBER OF             
 WAVES MOVING OVER THE REGION IN THE THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY TIME                 
 FRAME. THIS WILL BRING THE NEXT CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW AND ANOTHER               
 COLD FRONT TO REINFORCE THE COLD AIR OVER THE REGION.                          
 &&                                                                             
 .DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                            
 MI...NONE.                                                                     
 LAKE HURON...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...SAGINAW BAY UNTIL 5 PM TUESDAY.            
      SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...NEARSHORE WATERS FROM                              
      PORT AUSTIN TO PORT HURON UNTIL 5 AM WEDNESDAY.                           
 LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.                                                          
 MI WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...UNTIL 5 PM MONDAY.             
 &&                                                                             
 $$                                                                             
 SHORT TERM...CONSIDINE                                                         
 LONG TERM....KAHL                                                              
 AVIATION...BGM                                                                 
 YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE           
 AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).                                   
</pre> mi                                                                       

 AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                       
 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                          
 1130 AM EST MON JAN 15 2007                                                    
 .DISCUSSION...                                                                 
 THE MAIN CONCERN WITH THIS FORECAST UPDATE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SNOW           
 THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.                                                        
 WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC/NAM SHOWING A LONGWAVE TROUGH EXTENDING            
 FROM NORTHERN JAMES BAY SOUTHWEST INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS THEN TO              
 NORTHERN BAJA. A RIDGE STRETCHES ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST INTO             
 THE ALBERTA. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH EJECTED OUT OF THE TROUGH IS OVER              
 WESTERN U.P. AND WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR. OTHERS UPSTREAM SHORTWAVES             
 ARE OVER KANSAS...ARIZONA AND WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA. SURFACE ANALYSIS           
 DEPICT A LOW OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES...A WEAK TROUGH EXTENDING              
 WEST TO NORTHERN IOWA...AND A RIDGE BLANKETING MUCH OF NORTHERN                
 PLAINS AND MANITOBA. AN 850MB THERMAL TROUGH (-20C) RUNS FROM                  
 EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA INTO WESTERN MANITOBA CAUSES TEMPERATURES OVER            
 WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR TO BE AROUND -17C AND -15C OVER THE PART OF              
 THE LAKE. BOTH COOL ENOUGH TO PRODUCE LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY FOR LAKE           
 EFFECT SNOWS ENHANCEMENT. LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE CONTINUE TO PRODUCE            
 HEAVY SNOW FALL OVER NORTHERN U.P. LOWEST INVERSION IS AROUND 3.5K             
 FEET. DEEP (SURFACE-850MB) MOISTURE IS 80 TO 85 PERCENT. PW IS IN              
 THE .25 TO .3 INCH RANGE WHICH IS FAIRLY DRY. THE HEAVIEST SNOW ARE            
 OCCURRING WHERE THE STRONGEST LAKE EFFECT SNOWS ARE OCCURRING OVER             
 NORTH CENTRAL U.P. AND EXTREME WESTERN SHORE OF THE FORECAST AREA.             
 THE LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL EDGE A LITTLE EAST BECOMING MORE CENTERED             
 OVER THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON. THE LOWER GREAT LAKES LOW               
 WILL SHIFT TO NEW ENGLAND AS THE NORTHERN PLAINS RIDGE EDGES ONLY A            
 FEW MILES EAST. SURFACE WINDS WILL BACK A LITTLE MORE TO THE NORTH.            
 SYSTEM SNOW CONTINUE OVER THE FORECAST AREA MAINLY ALONG THE LAKE              
 MICHIGAN SHORE. KMQT-88D INDICATES LES BANDS DEVELOPING OVER                   
 MARQUETTE COUNTY AND WESTERN ALGER. SURFACE REPORTS ALSO INDICATE              
 HEAVY LES OVER EXTREMELY WESTERN U.P. RUC CONTINUES TO SHOW                    
 CONVERGENCE OVER CENTRAL LAKE SUPERIOR. 280K ISENTROPIC ANALYSIS               
 INDICATES MOSTLY DESCENT ACROSS THE AREA. MIXING RATIO ABOUT 1 G/KG            
 ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST PART OF THE FORECAST AREA. QUESTION WHETHER TO            
 EXTEND THE WARNING TO WESTERN ALGER COUNTY. AS THE WINDS BACK THIS             
 AFTERNOON THE BANDS WILL SHIFT THROUGH THE DAY AND DRY AIR WILL                
 ADVANCE INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST WHICH SHOULD WEAKEN THE LES                
 ACROSS THE AREA. UP TO 7 INCHES OVER WILL FALL OVER WESTERN ALGER              
 COUNTY. SO WILL LEAVE IT WITH AN ADVISORY.                                     
 THIS EVENING THE SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE EAST. DRY AIR WILL MOVE INTO              
 THE AREA. SURFACE TEMPERATURE WILL REMAIN COOL ENOUGH TO KEEP LAKE             
 EFFECT SNOWS GOING. HOWEVER...THE DRYNESS WILL LIMIT SNOWFALL.                 
 &&                                                                             
 .MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                            
 LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 11 PM EST                 
 MONDAY FOR MIZ001>004-006-084-085.                                             
 LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING FROM 11 PM EST /10 PM CST/ THIS EVENING               
 TO 11 PM EST /10 PM CST/ MONDAY FOR MIZ005-009.                                
 SNOW ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 11 PM EST MONDAY FOR MIZ013.                        
 SNOW ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6 PM CST MONDAY FOR                     
 MIZ010>012.                                                                    
 &&                                                                             
 $$                                                                             
 DLG                                                                            
</pre> mi                                                                       

 AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                             
 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN                                             
 1104 AM CST MON JAN 15 2007                                                    
 .UPDATE...CANCELLED SNOW ADVISORY WILL LITTLE OR NO ADDITIONAL                 
 ACCUMULATION EXPECTED. WILL KEEP LAKE EFFECT WARNING OUT THROUGH               
 6PM (AT LEAST). BANDS ARE REALLY ISOLATED IN NATURE AND HARD TO                
 LOCATE. WITH DEPARTURE OF MID LEVEL CLOUDS...VISIBLE SATELLITE                 
 IMAGERY SHOULD GIVE A MUCH BETTER VIEW OF BANDS THIS AFTERNOON.                
 KIWD OBSERVATION HAS DROPPED TO 1/2 MILE THIS PAST HOUR...AND                  
 REPORTS FROM SNOW OBSERVERS INDICATED SOME HEAVY SNOW STILL                    
 ONGOING ATTM...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN IRON AND NORTHEAST                   
 ASHLAND COUNTIES. BAYFIELD COUNTY IS A BIT MORE PROBLEMATIC...WITH             
 REPORTS GENERALLY RANGING FROM THE 2.5 TO 3 INCHES. EXPECT POSSIBLE            
 BORDERLINE WARNING CRITERIA IN VERY ISOLATED LOCATIONS THERE. REST             
 OF FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK WITH VERY COLD NIGHT ON TAP TONIGHT FOR             
 THE NORTHLAND.                                                                 
 &&                                                                             
 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 429 AM CST MON JAN 15 2007/                        
 UPDATE...                                                                      
 NO SNOWFALL SPOTTERS HAVE REPORTED OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER...CALLS TO               
 COUNTY LAW ENFORCEMENT HAVE INFORMED ME THAT NEW SNOWFALL OF 2 TO              
 4 INCHES FELL OVERNIGHT ACROSS WASHBURN...SAWYER AND PRICE                     
 COUNTIES. SINCE PINE...DOUGLAS AND BURNETT COUNTIES ALL REPORTED               
 AROUND AN INCH OVERNIGHT...AND THE MAIN FORCING AND STRONGER RADAR             
 RETURNS HAVE ALL PROCEEDED TO THE EAST..CANCELLED THE SN ADVISORY              
 FOR THESE COUNTIES. DOUGLAS COUNTY MAY SEE SOME ACCUMULATION YET               
 DUE TO LAKE EFFECT...WITH UP TO 2 INCHES OF ADDITIONAL                         
 ACCUMULATION NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR.                                               
 GRANING                                                                        
 PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 314 AM CST MON JAN 15 2007/                         
 DISCUSSION...                                                                  
 SYNOPTIC SNOW CONTINUES TO TRACK NE ACROSS NRN WISCONSIN WHILE LES             
 SNOW IS FOUND ALONG THE SNOW BELT REGION OF THE SOUTH SHORE. FIRST FCST        
 FOCUS ON TIMING THE BACK EDGE OF THE SNOW...AS WELL AS TOTAL SN                
 AMOUNTS. NO SIG CHANGES TO FCST. PREVIOUS FCST IN GOOD SHAPE WITH              
 LIKELY/DEF POPS ACROSS WI ZONES WHERE VARIOUS HEADLINES ARE IN                 
 EFFECT. THE GFS/NAM AGREE THAT THE FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE                 
 SYNOPTIC SN WILL MOVE EAST AND DIMINISH OVER THE ERN FA THROUGH                
 THIS MORNING...TAPERING OFF FROM WEST TO EAST THIS AFTERNOON. WILL             
 KEEP HEADLINE TIMING AS IS. THE GREATEST SNOWFALL AMOUNTS AWAY                 
 FROM LAKE SUPERIOR WILL BE ACROSS THE FAR SE ZONES /SAWYER AND                 
 PRICE COUNTIES/.                                                               
 SECOND FCST DIFFICULTY...LES TODAY. CURRENT SFC OBSERVATIONS AND               
 LOCAL WEB CAMS SHOW THAT THE LES HAS WEAKENED. ALTHOUGH THERE ARE              
 LIGHT RADAR RETURNS...AND THE COLD AIR AND TRAJECTORIES ARE IN                 
 PLACE...CIGS ARE INCREASING ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE. THE 08Z MSAS                
 AND NAM12 ANALYSIS ARE PICKING UP ON A VERY TIGHT LW LVL RH                    
 GRADIENT SITTING PARALLEL AND JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE SOUTH SHORE             
 OF LS. THIS ARCTIC DRY-LINE IS DEPICTED IN BOTH THE 1000-850 MB AND            
 925-850 MB RH FIELDS...WHERE VALUES OF 35-40 PERCENT ARE FOUND NORTH           
 OF THE THE BOUNDARY ALONG THE NORTH SHORE...AND OVER 80 PERCENT RH             
 JUST INLAND IN NW WIS. THE NAM/RUC BRING THIS DRY AIR OVER THE                 
 WRN TIP OF LS AND INTO THE FAR NW CORNER OF WIS THROUGH 12Z...THEN             
 RETREAT IT BACK OVER LS MID MORNING AS THE WINDS BACK TO THE                   
 N AND INCREASE BY 18Z. THE 2 AM OBSERVATIONS REFLECT THIS DRY POCKET           
 AS VSBYS HAVE INCREASED TO 8SM AT ASX AND 4SM AT IWD. IN                       
 ADDITION...THE HURLEY WEB CAM ALSO SHOWS NON-RESTRICTED VSBYS WITH             
 NO SNOWFALL AT THIS HOUR. AS LONG AS THIS DRY LAYER DOES NOT                   
 INTRUDE ANY FURTHER AND RETREATS TO THE NW AS THE MODELS                       
 SUGGEST...THE LES SHOWERS SHOULD QUICKLY COMMENCE AFTER SUNRISE.               
 ATTM...WILL KEEP LES WARNING AS IS WITH SLIGHTLY LOWER SN TOTALS               
 DUE TO LATER START. DAY SHIFT WILL NEED TO MONITOR.                            
 ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY.             
 THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING CLEARING SKIES WITH LIGHT WINDS                   
 OVERNIGHT. TONIGHT WILL LIKELY BE THE COLDEST OF YET...WITH THE                
 MID 20S BELOW ZERO ACROSS THE IRON RANGE AND ARROWHEAD...AND EVEN              
 SOME FAVORED LOCATIONS AS LOW AS THE 40S BELOW.                                
 GRANING                                                                        
 &&                                                                             
 POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                            
 DLH   7 -17   5  -3 /  20  10   0  10                                          
 INL  -6 -26   1 -12 /   0   0   0  10                                          
 BRD   4 -16   8  -2 /  10   0   0  10                                          
 HYR  15  -9   7  -5 /  80  10   0  10                                          
 ASX  15  -2   7   0 / 100  40  20  10                                          
 &&                                                                             
 .DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                            
 MN...NONE.                                                                     
 WI...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR                
      ASHLAND-BAYFIELD-IRON.                                                    
 LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CST TUESDAY FOR LSZ121-LSZ146-           
      LSZ147-LSZ148.                                                            
 $$                                                                             
 LILES                                                                          
</pre> mn                                                                       

 AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                       
 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO                                           
 245 PM CST MON JAN 15 2007                                                     
 THREE LAYERED STORM WHICH CREATED HAVOC ACROSS MISSOURI THROUGH                
 THE WEEKEND IS NOW WELL TO THE EAST. THE LAST HURRAH FROM THIS                 
 SYSTEM IS A NARROW BAND OF LIGHT SNOW WHICH EXTENDS FROM                       
 WISCONSIN SOUTH THROUGH NORTHERN ILLINOIS INTO NORTHEAST AND                   
 EAST CENTRAL MISSOURI. TEMPERATURES HAVE FALLEN SLOWLY THROUGH                 
 THE DAY AND AT FORECAST TIME WILL START IN THE MIDDLE TO                       
 UPPER 20S IN ILLINOIS DOWN TO THE MIDDLE TEENS ACROSS CENTRAL                  
 MISSOURI. MODIFIED ARCTIC AIR WILL SETTLE DOWN ACROSS THE BISTATE              
 AREA DROPPING OVERNIGHT LOWS TO 5 TO 10 ABOVE NORTHWEST WITH                   
 WIND CHILL VALUES 0 TO 10 BELOW THERE. THE EASTERN COUNTIES WON`T              
 GET AS COLD BECAUSE THE CLOUDS WILL HANG IN LONGER.                            
 WINDS WILL SETTLE TO 10 TO 15 MPH THROUGH THE NIGHT AND THEN                   
 DIE OUT TOMORROW AND TOMORROW NIGHT AS THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE                 
 LIES OVERHEAD.  SOME WARMING IF YOU CAN CALL IT THAT IS ANTICIPATED            
 FOR WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 30S.                                           
 THE NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM IS FROM THE TAIL OF THE TROUGH THAT GAVE               
 US THIS WEEKEND WEATHER. IT GOT CUT OFF OVER THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES              
 BUT GETS KICKED EAST INTO THE PLAINS BY ANOTHER SHORT WAVE THAT                
 DROPS INTO ITS PLACE. THE AIR WILL BE TOO DRY AND NOTHING OF                   
 CONSEQUENCE IS ANTICIPATED WITH IT.                                            
 OF INTEREST HOWEVER IS THE WEEKEND OUTLOOK.  SURROUNDING OFFICES               
 DID NOT WANT TO PUT PRECIPITATION IN UNTIL MONDAY. HOWEVER THE                 
 EUROPEAN MODEL HAS BEEN DOING PRETTY WELL OF LATE IN THE MEDIUM                
 RANGE SYNOPTIC PATTERN AND IT HAS A PRETTY DECENT CHUNK OF ENERGY              
 MOVING OUT OF THE ROCKIES INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND PRECIPITATION            
 WILL PROBABLY BREAK OUT FOR SUNDAY INTO MONDAY ACROSS OUR FORECAST             
 AREA. THE EUROPEAN WOULD POINT TO MIXED PRECIPITATION...RAIN SOUTH...          
 MIXED CENTRAL AND SNOW TO MIXED NORTH. WE WILL WAIT TO TAKE A                  
 CLOSER LOOK AT IT TOMORROW AND SEE IF THE MODELS CONTINUE TO                   
 BRING IT ALONG.                                                                
 IN THE LONGER RANGE IT APPEARS ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL DRIFT                   
 SOUTHEAST REINFORCING THE COOL AIR FOR FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.                   
 PEDIGO                                                                         
 &&                                                                             
 .DISCUSSION...                                                                 
 CLASSIC COMMA PCPN STRUCTURE ON RADAR WITH SNOW OVR IA IN THE COMMA            
 HEAD AND A TRAILING BAND OF RAIN ACRS THE SRN AND ERN PTN OF THE               
 CWA IN THE WRM CONVEYOR BELT. PATCHY DRIZZLE OR FREEZING DRIZZLE               
 IS BEING REPORTED ACRS THE NRN AND WRN PTN OF THE CWA...N AND W OF             
 STL...WITH A FEW RPTS OF LGT SLEET AS WELL. MAY STILL HAVE SOME                
 LGT RAIN OVR THE EXTREME SRN AND ERN PTN OF THE CWA ARND 12Z MON               
 AS BOTH NAM AND GFS MDLS STILL DEPICT SOME UPR LVL DIVERGENCE S                
 AND E OF STL ARND 12Z MON AHD OF POSITIVELY TILTED UPR TROF EXTDG              
 FM THE NRN PLAINS SW THRU THE SRN RCKYS. MOST OF THE MEASUREABLE               
 PCPN SHOULD END SHORTLY AFTER 12Z MON THOUGH AS VORT MAX DEPICTED              
 BY LATEST RUC ANLYS OVR W CNTRL MO MOVES NE OF THE CWA LTR THIS                
 MRNG AND THE MOISTURE PROFILE BCMS SHALLOW AFTER 12Z MON AS                    
 DISPLAYED ON MDL TIME HGT SECTIONS OF RH. NOT MUCH FORCING FOR                 
 UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION BY LT MRNG AND AFTN WITH STG 850 MB CAA                 
 BHND 850 MB TROF AND SUBSIDENCE INCRSG WITH STG ARCTIC SFC RDG                 
 BLDG SEWD INTO MO BHND SFC LOW AND ATTENDANT CDFNT. MAY STILL SEE              
 SOME PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE OR FLURRIES FM COU TO UIN AND PATCHY              
 DRIZZLE CHANGING TO PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE AND FLURRIES IN STL                
 AND FAM LT THIS MRNG AND THIS AFTN WITH CYCLONIC MID-UPR LVL FLOW              
 AHD OF THE POSITIVELY TILTED TROF AND A SHALOW MOISTURE PROFILE FM             
 THE SFC TO ARND 850 MB. TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY SLOWLY FALL                   
 DURING THE DAY WITH STG LOW LVL CAA COMBINED WITH A STRATUS OVC                
 SKY ALL DAY. SHOULD HAVE RELATIVELY STG NWLY SFC WNDS TDA DUE TO               
 A TIGHT SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT BTWN SFC LOW MOVG NEWD THRU THE OH               
 VLY REGION AND STG SFC RDG BLDG SEWD THRU THE PLAINS. COLD                     
 TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TGT WITH CONTD NWLY LOW LVL WNDS AND CAA.                
 MDLS FCSTG 850 MB TEMPS TO FALL TO ARND -12 TO -15 DGRS C BY 06Z TUE           
 AND SFC DWPTS FALLING TO ARND 10 TO 15 DGRS F BY LT TGT. SHOULD                
 FINALLY SEE SUNSHINE ON TUE WITH MOS GUIDANCE INDICATING DCRSG                 
 CLOUDINESS LT MON NGT AND MDL RH FCSTS SHOWING DCRSG LOW LVL RH ON             
 TUE. TEMPERATURES SHOULD STILL REMAIN BLW FREEZING ON TUE DESPITE              
 PLENTY OF SUNSHINE DURING THE AFTN WITH THE STG ARCTIC SFC HI                  
 CNTRD OVR THE PLAINS. ANOTHER COLD NGT ON TUE NGT WITH GOOD                    
 RADIATIONAL COOLING DUE TO THE SFC RDG OVR THE CWA BRINGING A CLR              
 SKY...LGT SFC WNDS AND SFC DWPTS ONLY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS.                    
 TEMPERATURES SHOULD GET ABV THE FREEZING MARK ON WED WITH RISING               
 MID-UPR LVL HGTS AND A RETURN SLY LOW LVL FLOW BGNG ON THE WEST                
 SIDE OF SFC/850 MB RDG.                                                        
 GKS                                                                            
 &&                                                                             
 .AVIATION...                                                                   
 FOR THE 18Z TAFS...                                                            
 CEILINGS TO CONTINUE TO RISE THIS AFTERNOON TO MVFR CATEGORY EVEN              
 WITH BAND OF SNOW THAT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE CWA FROM WEST TO EAST.             
 HAVE INCLUDED A 4 TO 5 HOUR WINDOW OF SNOW AT ALL THE TAF                      
 SITES WITH VISIBILITIES DROPPING TO 2 OR 3 MILES.                              
 OTHERWISE...GUSTY WEST/NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE               
 EARLY EVENING BEFORE SLACKING.                                                 
 CVKING                                                                         
 &&                                                                             
 .LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                            
 MO...NONE.                                                                     
 IL...NONE.                                                                     
 &&                                                                             
 $$                                                                             
 WFO LSX                                                                        
</pre> mo                                                                       

 AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                       
 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO                                           
 1112 AM CST MON JAN 15 2007                                                    
 .UPDATE...                                                                     
 PLAN TO UPDATE FORECAST FOR THIS AFTERNOON TO ACCOUNT FOR BAND OF              
 LIGHT SNOW THAT WILL CROSS CWA FROM WEST TO EAST. CALLS OUT WEST               
 TO KANSAS CITY INDICATE LITTLE IF ANY ACCUMULATION...BUT                       
 VISIBILITIES HAVE DROPPED AS LOW AS A MILE AND A HALF WITHIN THIS              
 BAND. OTHERWISE WINDS HAVE INCREASED AS EXPECTED...AND                         
 TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO FALL AS COLD AIR ADVECTION TAKES OVER.                
 CVKING                                                                         
 &&                                                                             
 .DISCUSSION...                                                                 
 CLASSIC COMMA PCPN STRUCTURE ON RADAR WITH SNOW OVR IA IN THE COMMA            
 HEAD AND A TRAILING BAND OF RAIN ACRS THE SRN AND ERN PTN OF THE               
 CWA IN THE WRM CONVEYOR BELT. PATCHY DRIZZLE OR FREEZING DRIZZLE               
 IS BEING REPORTED ACRS THE NRN AND WRN PTN OF THE CWA...N AND W OF             
 STL...WITH A FEW RPTS OF LGT SLEET AS WELL. MAY STILL HAVE SOME                
 LGT RAIN OVR THE EXTREME SRN AND ERN PTN OF THE CWA ARND 12Z MON               
 AS BOTH NAM AND GFS MDLS STILL DEPICT SOME UPR LVL DIVERGENCE S                
 AND E OF STL ARND 12Z MON AHD OF POSITIVELY TILTED UPR TROF EXTDG              
 FM THE NRN PLAINS SW THRU THE SRN RCKYS. MOST OF THE MEASUREABLE               
 PCPN SHOULD END SHORTLY AFTER 12Z MON THOUGH AS VORT MAX DEPICTED              
 BY LATEST RUC ANLYS OVR W CNTRL MO MOVES NE OF THE CWA LTR THIS                
 MRNG AND THE MOISTURE PROFILE BCMS SHALLOW AFTER 12Z MON AS                    
 DISPLAYED ON MDL TIME HGT SECTIONS OF RH. NOT MUCH FORCING FOR                 
 UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION BY LT MRNG AND AFTN WITH STG 850 MB CAA                 
 BHND 850 MB TROF AND SUBSIDENCE INCRSG WITH STG ARCTIC SFC RDG                 
 BLDG SEWD INTO MO BHND SFC LOW AND ATTENDANT CDFNT. MAY STILL SEE              
 SOME PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE OR FLURRIES FM COU TO UIN AND PATCHY              
 DRIZZLE CHANGING TO PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE AND FLURRIES IN STL                
 AND FAM LT THIS MRNG AND THIS AFTN WITH CYCLONIC MID-UPR LVL FLOW              
 AHD OF THE POSITIVELY TILTED TROF AND A SHALOW MOISTURE PROFILE FM             
 THE SFC TO ARND 850 MB. TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY SLOWLY FALL                   
 DURING THE DAY WITH STG LOW LVL CAA COMBINED WITH A STRATUS OVC                
 SKY ALL DAY. SHOULD HAVE RELATIVELY STG NWLY SFC WNDS TDA DUE TO               
 A TIGHT SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT BTWN SFC LOW MOVG NEWD THRU THE OH               
 VLY REGION AND STG SFC RDG BLDG SEWD THRU THE PLAINS. COLD                     
 TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TGT WITH CONTD NWLY LOW LVL WNDS AND CAA.                
 MDLS FCSTG 850 MB TEMPS TO FALL TO ARND -12 TO -15 DGRS C BY 06Z TUE           
 AND SFC DWPTS FALLING TO ARND 10 TO 15 DGRS F BY LT TGT. SHOULD                
 FINALLY SEE SUNSHINE ON TUE WITH MOS GUIDANCE INDICATING DCRSG                 
 CLOUDINESS LT MON NGT AND MDL RH FCSTS SHOWING DCRSG LOW LVL RH ON             
 TUE. TEMPERATURES SHOULD STILL REMAIN BLW FREEZING ON TUE DESPITE              
 PLENTY OF SUNSHINE DURING THE AFTN WITH THE STG ARCTIC SFC HI                  
 CNTRD OVR THE PLAINS. ANOTHER COLD NGT ON TUE NGT WITH GOOD                    
 RADIATIONAL COOLING DUE TO THE SFC RDG OVR THE CWA BRINGING A CLR              
 SKY...LGT SFC WNDS AND SFC DWPTS ONLY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS.                    
 TEMPERATURES SHOULD GET ABV THE FREEZING MARK ON WED WITH RISING               
 MID-UPR LVL HGTS AND A RETURN SLY LOW LVL FLOW BGNG ON THE WEST                
 SIDE OF SFC/850 MB RDG.                                                        
 GKS                                                                            
 &&                                                                             
 .AVIATION...                                                                   
 FOR THE 18Z TAFS...                                                            
 CEILINGS TO CONTINUE TO RISE THIS AFTERNOON TO MVFR CATEGORY EVEN              
 WITH BAND OF SNOW THAT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE CWA FROM WEST TO EAST.             
 HAVE INCLUDED A 4 TO 5 HOUR WINDOW OF SNOW AT ALL THE TAF                      
 SITES WITH VISIBILITIES DROPPING TO 2 OR 3 MILES.                              
 OTHERWISE...GUSTY WEST/NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE               
 EARLY EVENING BEFORE SLACKING.                                                 
 CVKING                                                                         
 &&                                                                             
 .LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                            
 MO...NONE.                                                                     
 IL...NONE.                                                                     
 &&                                                                             
 $$                                                                             
 WFO LSX                                                                        
</pre> mo                                                                       

 AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                       
 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY                                         
 1220 PM EST MON JAN 15 2007                                                    
 .UPDATE...                                                                     
 GIVEN CRNT MESONET/ASOS TEMPS...WE WILL CANCEL THE WINTER STORM                
 WARNING FOR ALL ZONES WITH XCPTN OF ONEIDA, WHERE TEMPS STILL ARND             
 FREEZING. SOME ISOLD -FZRA STILL PSBL FOR THE NXT HR OR SO ACRS                
 FAR NRN ONONDADA BUT THREAT IS DIMINISHING. COULD SEE A BRIEF PD               
 OF MIXED PCPN BEFORE IT TRANSITIONS TO -SHSN ACRS THE FINGER LAKES             
 LATE TDA OR THIS EVNG, BUT ATTM DON`T XPCT MUCH IN THE WAY OF                  
 PRBLMS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAYLIGHT HRS.                                  
 &&                                                                             
 .PREV DISCUSSION...                                                            
 /ISSUED 1031 AM EST MON JAN 15 2007/                                           
 UPDATE...                                                                      
 FOR THE 11 AM UPDATE THE PLAN IS TO LET EXPIRE/CANCEL THE                      
 ADVISORY/WARNINGS FOR STEUBEN, SCHUYLER, TOMPKINS, CORTLAND,                   
 CHENANGO, OTSEGO, DELAWARE, AND SULLIVAN IN NY AND WAYNE/PIKE IN               
 NE PA. THERE MAY BE SOME ISOLD POCKETS PERSISTING IN THESE                     
 AREAS...SPCLY THE WRN CATSKILLS BUT TEMPS CONTINUE THEIR SLOW                  
 CLIMB. WILL LEAVE WARNING UP FOR THE NRN COUNTIES BUT WILL PRBLY               
 BE ABLE TO CANCEL THEM THIS AFTN.                                              
 PREV DISCUSSION...                                                             
 /ISSUED 822 AM EST MON JAN 15 2007/                                            
 UPDATE...                                                                      
 SFC TEMP ANYLS SHOWS A THERMAL RDG XTNDG FROM THE WYOMING VLY INTO             
 THE SRN TIER OF NY...WITH COLDER TEMPS AOA 32F PERSISTING ACRS                 
 THE FINGER LAKES...WRN MOHAWK VLY INTO THE WRN CATSKILLS. WE HAVE              
 RECIEVED A RPT FROM SRN CAYUGA COUNTY WHERE TREE LIMBS WERE COMING             
 DOWN DUE TO THE ICE. WE WILL INCREMENTALLY BEGIN TO TAKE DOWN SOME             
 OF THE ADVISORIES/WARNINGS WHERE TEMPS HAVE RISEN ABV FREEZING.                
 HYDROWISE... WE COULD SEE SOME OF OUR HEADWATER PTS APRCH FS...BUT             
 ATTM FEEL THAT ANY FLOODING CONCERNS WOULD BE FAIRLY MINOR.                    
 PREV DISCUSSION...                                                             
 /ISSUED 659 AM EST MON JAN 15 2007/                                            
 SHORT TERM /REST OF TODAY/...                                                  
 JUST SENT A REFRESHER BATCH OF ZONES AND STATEMENTS. WARM AIR HAS              
 MADE INTO WYOMING AND LACKAWANNA COUNTIES. MESO OBS STILL SHOW                 
 TEMPS CLOSE TO FREEZING AT HIGH ELEVATIONS IN THIS RANGE, BUT                  
 CLEARLY THE EVENT SHOULD BE ENDING SOON FOR THIS AREA. AS                      
 FORECAST, COLD AIR DAMMING IS SHOWING UP OVER EASTERN ZONES AND                
 SHOULD KEEP ICE ACCUMULATION CONTINUING.                                       
 CURRENT THINKING IS TEMPS WILL WARM INTO 33F-35F BY 10 AM OVER SO              
 TIER OF NY. COULD TAKE UNTIL EARLY AFTERNOON HOWEVER OVER FINGER               
 LAKES CATSKILLS. NORTHERN ONEIDA MAY NOT EVER GET THAT HIGH, BUT               
 SHOULD SEE A PRECIP TYPE CHANGEOVER TO SNOW WITH THE COLD FRONT                
 LATE AFTERNOON.                                                                
 DJP                                                                            
 PREV DISCUSSION...                                                             
 /ISSUED 651 AM EST MON JAN 15 2007/                                            
 AVIATION /151200Z-161200Z/...                                                  
 CENTRAL NY SITES HAVE STEADY FZRA WITH MAINLY IFR CIGS AND MVFR                
 VSBYS. AVP THE BEST TO START AND IN GENERAL WITH MVFR CIGS AND VFR             
 TO MVFR VSBYS. CIGS MAY DIP DOWN TO IFR AS HEAVIER RAIN MOVES IN               
 LATER THIS MORNING.                                                            
 SFC LOW TRACKS TO NW BRINGING A WARM FRONT AND IMPROVING                       
 CONDITIONS THIS AFTN FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT THIS EVENING. NY                 
 SITES SHOULD REMAIN THE SAME WITH VSBY AND CIGS EVEN AS FZRA                   
 CHANGES TO RA THIS MORNING. CIG AND VSBY IMPROVEMENT WITH WARM                 
 FRONT. WINDS SHIFT FROM SE TO SW AND REMAINING AT 5 TO 10 KTS.                 
 COLD FRONT WILL BRING ANOTHER WIND SHIFT TO NW. GENERALLY MVFR                 
 CONDITIONS LATE TODAY AND OVERNIGHT. SOME SNOW SHOWERS LATE IN                 
 PERIOD WITH MUCH COLDER AIR RACING IN FOR SYR...RME...AND ITH.                 
 PREV DISCUSSION...                                                             
 /ISSUED 209 AM EST MON JAN 15 2007/                                            
 HYDROLOGY...                                                                   
 SOME CONCERN THIS MORNING ABOUT FLOOD POTENTIAL. PRECIP TYPE MIX               
 OF FREEZING RAIN AND RAIN MOST AREAS WITH MORE ICE IN THE NORTH.               
 FORECASTED RAINFALL AMOUNTS AROUND AN INCH. MARFC HEADWATER                    
 GUIDANCE SHOWS MONROETON AND SHERBURNE AT 1 AND 1.2 INCHES                     
 RESPECTIVELY IN 6 AND ALSO 12 HOURS. OTHER HEADWATER AND FLASH FLOOD           
 GUIDANCE FROM BOTH RFCS HIGHER MOSTLY BETWEEN 1.5 AND 2.5 INCHES.              
 STREAMS AND RIVERS RUNNING UNSEASONABLY HIGH WITH SATURATED OR                 
 FROZEN GROUND. WITH AFTN TEMPS INTO 40S ALL BUT FAR N AND E ANY                
 ICE ACCUMULATED THIS MORNING WILL MELT AND RUNOFF. IN THE FAR N                
 AND E THERE WILL BE MORE ICE SO EXPECTED PRECIP TOTALS WILL NOT                
 ALL RUN OFF LIKE SRN TIER NY AND NE PA.                                        
 AFTER CHAT WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES WILL HOLD OFF ON A FLOOD WATCH             
 ATTM. ANY FLOOD PROBLEMS WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL MIDDAY AND SHOULD BE              
 MINOR AT WORST. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR AS ALWAYS. TAC                        
 PREV DISCUSSION...                                                             
 /ISSUED 125 AM EST MON JAN 15 2007/                                            
 SHORT TERM /TODAY/...                                                          
 WE ANTICIPATE AN EARLY ISSUANCE OF THE FORECAST PRODUCTS THIS                  
 MORNING TO GET AS MUCH LEAD TIME AS POSSIBLE FOR FLAG UPGRADES.                
 A POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS SITUATION IS SETTING UP FOR THE EASTERN                
 FORECAST AREA. WHILE THE FOCUS HAS RIGHTLY BEEN ON ICE                         
 ACCUMULATION OVER THE FINGER LAKES, ONONDAGA, MADISON, AND ONEIDA              
 COUNTIES, NEW MESOSCALE MODEL GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING SIGNIFICANT               
 ICE ACCUMULATION INTO THE CATSKILLS REGION, AND MAYBE EVEN THE POCONOS.        
 A LARGE POOL OF VERY COLD AIR IS IN PLACE OVER EXTREME NORTHERN                
 NEW YORK AND NEW ENGLAND, INTO QUEBEC PROVINCE. RUC40 AND NAM12                
 SFC TEMP FIELDS EACH SHOW THIS COLD AIR BLEEDING SOUTHWARD INTO                
 THE CATSKILLS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS, AND REMAINING FIXED FOR             
 A GOOD PORTION OF TODAY. THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH CLIMATOLOGY...WE              
 HAVE SEEN THIS MANY TIMES. IN THE MEANTIME MOISTURE IS STREAMING               
 NORTHWARD AS ANTICIPATED. GIVEN THE STRONG TEMP GRADIENT FORECAST              
 OVER THE EASTERN FA, PLUS THE ADDED TERRAIN LIFT, THINK THIS AREA              
 COULD RECEIVE MORE FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET THAN PREVIOUSLY                     
 EXPECTED THIS MORNING/AFTERNOON. IF ONE IS TO BUY THE SFC GUIDANCE             
 AS ADVERTISED, THE FREEZING LINE DIPS SOUTHWESTWARD INTO                       
 PIKE/WAYNE COUNTIES. THIS REGION WILL BE "ON THE EDGE." SO WHAT WE             
 PROPOSE TO DO IS UPGRADE EASTERN NY COUNTIES TO A WINTER STORM                 
 WARNING, AND ADD AN ADVISORY FOR PIKE/SOUTHERN WAYNE.                          
 DIFFERENT TIMING SCENARIO BUT SIMILAR RESULTS FOR SOUTHERN TIER OF             
 NY AND OTHER PORTIONS OF NORTHEASTERN PA. COLD AIR IS ALREADY IN               
 PLACE OVER TWIN TIERS, WITH STEUBEN CTY IN MID 20S EARLY THIS                  
 MORNING AND UPPER 20S EXTENDING EASTWARD THROUGH BROOME COUNTY.                
 WITH TEMPERATURES THIS FAR BELOW FREEZING, AND EXPECTED TO REMAIN              
 BELOW FREEZING A FEW HOURS LONGER THAN EXPECTED THIS MORNING, WE               
 WILL UPGRADE THIS REGION TO A WARNING TOO FOR FREEZING RAIN AND                
 SLEET.                                                                         
 MESO-OBS SHOW TEMPS OVER SULLIVAN AND WYOMING CTYS IN PA HOVERING              
 AROUND FREEZING MARK TOO. AN ADVISORY IS NEEDED HERE. THE LATER                
 CREWS SHOULD BE ABLE TO DROP THIS ADVISORY BY MID MORNING, BUT FOR             
 NOW IT NEEDS TO BE ADDED TO THE SUITE.                                         
 COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH TONIGHT. GIVEN VERY TIGHT TEMP GRADIENT,             
 AND FORECASTED FORCING/OMEGA ALONG THE FRONT, CAN SEE POTENTIAL                
 FOR A SQUALL DROPPING SOUTHEASTWARD WITH FRONT DURING EVENING                  
 HOURS. THIS IS SOMETHING WE NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON UPSTREAM, AS IT             
 WOULD ENTER THE NORTHWESTERN FORECAST AREA JUST AN HOUR OR TWO                 
 AFTER PEAK DRIVE TIME.                                                         
 MUCH COLDER AIR WILL SPAWN LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS TUESDAY AND                
 TUESDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER ORGANIZATION LOOKS WEAK AT THIS POINT, AND              
 AM NOT YET SOLD ON ANYTHING BUT LIGHT ACCUMULATION.  DJP                       
 LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...                                          
 WITH FOCUS ON THE SHORT TERM, WE FOLLOWED HPC GUIDANCE CLOSELY WHICH           
 LOOKED VERY GOOD. SOME LES LIKELY TUES NGT INTO WED ON A COLD NW               
 FLOW, WHICH SHUD DIMINISH ON WED AFTN. THE LAKES ARE VERY MILD FOR             
 THIS TIME OF YEAR, AND COLD AIR TEMPS SUGGEST AT LEAST MDT                     
 INSTABILITY. LATEST PROFILES SHOW FAIRLY WELL ALIGNED NW FLOW TUES             
 NGT INTO WED MRNG, WITH INVERSION NEAR 850 MB TUES NGT THEN LOWERING           
 ON WED. LOOKS LIKE POTNL FOR SOME ADVISORY ACCUMS ACRS PORTIONS OF             
 THE FINGER LAKES AND SUSQ RGN. HIGH PRES BUILDS IN FOR WED NGT AND             
 THU WITH FAIR WX. ANOTHER REINFORCING SURGE OF COLD AIR LATE IN THE            
 WEEK WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS.                                            
 &&                                                                             
 .BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                            
 NY...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 3 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR NYZ009-            
      015>018-036-037-046.                                                      
 PA...NONE.                                                                     
 &&                                                                             
 $$                                                                             
</pre> ny                                                                       

 AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                       
 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH                                         
 1256 PM EST MON JAN 15 2007                                                    
 .AVIATION /18Z-18Z/...                                                         
 RAIN WILL MOVE EAST OF THE TERMINALS WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR.                     
 CEILINGS WILL GENERALLY BE MVFR ALTHOUGH SOME AREAS OF IFR WILL                
 OCCUR INTO THE EVENING. THERE COULD BE SOME TEMPORARY BREAKS IN                
 THE CEILING BETWEEN 06Z AND 12Z BUT MVFR SHOULD PREVAIL TO THE END             
 OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. FLURRIES OR SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE              
 TOMORROW BUT THE PROBABILITY OF THEM OCCURRING AT ANY ONE SITE IS              
 TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME. WINDS WILL VEER TO                
 WEST THIS EVENING AND THEN WEST NORTHWEST ON TUESDAY.                          
 &&                                                                             
 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1135 AM EST MON JAN 15 2007/                       
 SHORT TERM /REST OF TODAY/...                                                  
 BACK EDGE OF THE RAIN IS FINALLY MOVING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA               
 AND SHOULD CONTINUE TO DO SO THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. DECIDED TO                 
 EXTEND THE FLOOD WATCH FOR THE SOUTHEAST HALF WHERE SOME MODERATE              
 RAIN IS STILL POSSIBLE. MADE SOME MINOR MODIFICATIONS TO                       
 TEMPERATURES BASED ON LATEST OBSERVATIONS AND SHORT TERM MODEL                 
 GUIDANCE.                                                                      
 SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...                                        
 SFC LOW IS NR OF IND...WITH A WRMFNT RUNNING NE UP TO NR AOH AND               
 FDY. POSITION OF THE LOW IS WEST OF ALL THE MODELS...WHICH SHOULD              
 MEAN THAT TEMPS AT 12Z WILL BE WARMER THAN GUIDANCE. USED THE RAW              
 RUC/NAM12 SFC TEMPS FOR MY 12Z TEMPS AND MADE THEM MY HIGH TEMPS.              
 WITH LOW PULLS NE COLDER AIR WILL WORK INTO THE REGION THIS                    
 AFTERNOON. RAIN WILL GRADUALLY CHANGE TO SNOW IN THE NW HALF                   
 TODAY...THEN ACROSS THE SE TONIGHT. MODELS DRAG A PERIOD OF                    
 MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN ACRS THE FA THIS MORNING. WILL LEAVE FFA UP             
 THRU EXPIRATION TIME.                                                          
 PCPN WILL TAPER OFF QUICKLY THIS AFTERNOON.                                    
 NORTHERLY FLOW OVER THE LAKES WILL PRODUCE SNOW SHOWERS TONIGHT                
 INTO EARLY TUE EVENING.                                                        
 HIGH BUILDS IN TUE NGT INTO WED.                                               
 FOR TEMPS THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD....USED A BLEND OF                   
 GUIDANCE.                                                                      
 SITES                                                                          
 LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...                                  
 NO CHANGE TO PREVIOUS FORECAST.                                                
 &&                                                                             
 .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                            
 OH...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR OHZ054>056-063>065-         
      070>074-077>082-088.                                                      
 KY...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR KYZ089>100.                 
 IN...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR INZ066-073>075-080.         
 &&                                                                             
 $$                                                                             
</pre> oh                                                                       

 AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                       
 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH                                         
 1135 AM EST MON JAN 15 2007                                                    
 .SHORT TERM /REST OF TODAY/...                                                 
 BACK EDGE OF THE RAIN IS FINALLY MOVING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA               
 AND SHOULD CONTINUE TO DO SO THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. DECIDED TO                 
 EXTEND THE FLOOD WATCH FOR THE SOUTHEAST HALF WHERE SOME MODERATE              
 RAIN IS STILL POSSIBLE. MADE SOME MINOR MODIFICATIONS TO                       
 TEMPERATURES BASED ON LATEST OBSERVATIONS AND SHORT TERM MODEL                 
 GUIDANCE.                                                                      
 &&                                                                             
 .PREV DISCUSSION...                                                            
 /ISSUED 650 AM EST MON JAN 15 2007/                                            
 AVIATION /12Z-12Z/...                                                          
 SFC LOW QUICLY MOVING NE THROUGH OHVLY...CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER                
 LIMA. NEARLY STATIONARY COLD FRONT BISECTING THE REGION FROM SW-NE             
 WILL MAKE AN EASTWARD PUSH AS SFC COLD AIR SWINGS THROUGH THE                  
 REGION. TRIED TO BE A LITTLE OPTIMISTIC ON CIGS FOR ALL BUT KDAY               
 TAFS TODAY...AT LEAST UNTIL WINDS SHIFT MORE WESTERLY AND CIGS DROP            
 TOWARDS THE IFR CATEGORY.                                                      
 COLD POOL WILL HAVE MORE OF AN EFFECT OF DRYING OUT THE AIR THIS               
 AFTERNOON AND EVENING VERSUS CHANGING RAIN OVER TO SNOW. BELIEVE               
 THAT ISOLD -SHSN WILL OCCUR THIS EVENING BUT THERE IS NOT ANY                  
 PARTICULAR AREA FOR DEVELOPMENT. CONTINUE TO LEAVE OUT OF FCST AS              
 THEY SHOULDN`T AFFECT VSBYS ALL THAT MUCH...OR AT LEAST BE MORE MISS           
 THAN HIT.                                                                      
 FRANKS                                                                         
 SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...                                        
 SFC LOW IS NR OF IND...WITH A WRMFNT RUNNING NE UP TO NR AOH AND               
 FDY. POSITION OF THE LOW IS WEST OF ALL THE MODELS...WHICH SHOULD              
 MEAN THAT TEMPS AT 12Z WILL BE WARMER THAN GUIDANCE. USED THE RAW              
 RUC/NAM12 SFC TEMPS FOR MY 12Z TEMPS AND MADE THEM MY HIGH TEMPS.              
 WITH LOW PULLS NE COLDER AIR WILL WORK INTO THE REGION THIS                    
 AFTERNOON. RAIN WILL GRADUALLY CHANGE TO SNOW IN THE NW HALF                   
 TODAY...THEN ACROSS THE SE TONIGHT. MODELS DRAG A PERIOD OF                    
 MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN ACRS THE FA THIS MORNING. WILL LEAVE FFA                
 UP THRU EXPIRATION TIME.                                                       
 PCPN WILL TAPER OFF QUICKLY THIS AFTERNOON.                                    
 NORTHERLY FLOW OVER THE LAKES WILL PRODUCE SNOW SHOWERS TONIGHT                
 INTO EARLY TUE EVENING.                                                        
 HIGH BUILDS IN TUE NGT INTO WED.                                               
 FOR TEMPS THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD....USED A BLEND OF                   
 GUIDANCE.                                                                      
 SITES                                                                          
 LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...                                  
 NO CHANGE TO PREVIOUS FORECAST.                                                
 &&                                                                             
 .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                            
 OH...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR OHZ054>056-                 
      063>065-070>074-077>082-088.                                              
 KY...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR KYZ089>100.                 
 IN...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR INZ066-073>075-             
      080.                                                                      
 &&                                                                             
 $$                                                                             
</pre> oh                                                                       

 AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                       
 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX                                        
 225 PM CST MON JAN 15 2007                                                     
 .DISCUSSION...SURFACE OBS FROM AROUND THE REGION SHOW THE GOOD CAA             
 CONTINUING ON THE NORTH-NORTHWEST SURFACE WINDS BLOWING AT 15 TO 25            
 KNOTS ACROSS THE REGION. CURRENT TEMPS RANGE FROM 37 AT BOTH                   
 HEBBRONVILLE AND FALFURRIAS TO 45 DEGREES AT WESLACO AND BAYVIEW.              
 GFS AND ETA FORECAST SOUNDINGS BOTH SHOW TEMPS DROPPING BELOW                  
 FREEZING FROM AROUND 850 TO 975 MB BY 18Z TUESDAY WHICH WILL                   
 PROVIDE A PRETTY SUBSTANTIAL FREEZING LAYER. ANY SIGNIFICANT RAIN              
 THAT FALLS THROUGH THIS LAYER HAS THE POTENTIAL FOR SLEET FORMATION            
 LATER TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY. HOWEVER...SOME MAJOR DIFFENCES SHOW UP             
 CONCERNING PROGGED MOISTURE LEVELS NEAR THIS COLD LAYER. THE ETA               
 SHOWS PRETTY SIGNIFICANT DRYING OCCURRING THROUGH 18Z TUES IN                  
 COMPARISON TO THE GFS WHICH HAS A MORE SATURATED FREEZING LAYER                
 ALOFT. THIS IS THE BIG FLY IN THE OINTMENT. IF THIS ELEVATED COLD              
 LAYER DOES DRY OUT SOMEWHAT...THIS WILL IN TURN DIMINISH POPS AND              
 ACCORDINGLY...WILL DIMINISH THE SLEET CHCS. HOWEVER...AM HESITANT TO           
 REDUCE POPS VERY MUCH DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD DUE TO A COUPLE OF           
 REASONS. FIRST...THE GFS CONTINUES TO ADVERTISE SOME POTENTIAL FOR             
 SOME WEAK COASTAL SURFACE TROFFING INTO TOMORROW WHICH WOULD HELP              
 WITH LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ACROSS THE EASTERN SECTIONS. SECOND...              
 THE GFS AND RUC GUIDANCE SHOW SOME BETTER 500 MB PVA SKIRTING THE              
 BRO CWA JUST TO THE NORTH AND WEST WHICH MAY ALSO ENHANCE THE LIFT             
 SOMEWHAT ALLOWING A RAIN/SLEET MIXTURE TO BEGIN LATER TONIGHT. THE             
 NAM AND GFS SHOW SOME BETTER AGREEMENT CONCERNING POPS AFTER TONIGHT           
 AS THE NAM PICKS UP ON SOME INVERTED COASTAL SURFACE TROFFING                  
 TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY WHICH ALSO HELPS MAINTAIN SOME CHC POPS OUT             
 INTO PERIODS 3 AND 4. THE AIRMASS BEGINS TO MODERATE ON WED AS THE             
 CAA WEAKENS AND WARMER SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT TRIES TO BUILD DOWN            
 TO THE SURFACE FINALLY ERODING AWAY THE SUB-FREEZING LAYER AROUND              
 18Z WED. HOWEVER...ENOUGH MOISTURE LINGERS AROUND THE AREA AND THE             
 LOW LEVEL INVERSION HOLDS ON THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK TO MAINTAIN           
 THE CLOUD COVER...FAIRLY COOL TEMPS AND SLGT CHC/CHC POPS INTO NEXT            
 WEEKEND.  FOR TEMPS WILL GO CLOSER TO THE COOLER MET GUIDANCE FOR              
 BOTH HRL AND BRO.  FURTHER WEST...THE MAV GUIDANCE IS COOLER THAN              
 THE MET AND WILL GO CLOSER TO THESE FOR MFE TEMPS. ALSO...WILL                 
 UPGRADE THE CURRENT FREEZE WATCH TO A WARNING FOR THE NORTHERN FOUR            
 COUNTIES AND WILL ISSUE A WINTER WX ADVISORY FOR MOST OF THE BRO CWA           
 TO ACCOUNT FOR ANY RAIN/SLEET MIXTURE OVERNIGHT INTO TUES.                     
 &&                                                                             
 .MARINE...AT 1PM BUOY020 REPORTED NORTH WINDS AT 27G33KTS WHILE                
 BUOY019 REPORTED SEAS OF 8.5 FEET. LIGHT RAIN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT            
 WILL CONTINUE TO OVERSPREAD THE REGION THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS.              
 WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO RUSH IN FROM THE NORTHWEST AROUND 30 KTS WITH           
 GUSTS ABOVE 35 KNOTS POSSIBLE. AS A RESULT...GALE WARNINGS ARE IN              
 EFFECT FOR THE COASTAL WATERS. WINDS WILL REMAIN BELOW 35 KNOTS                
 ALONG THE LAGUNA MADRE...SO ONLY SCA WILL BE NEEDED. THESE                     
 CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS COLD AIR              
 CONTINUES TO POUR IN FROM THE NORTH UNDERNEATH SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.           
 &&                                                                             
 .AVIATION...CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN BORDERLINE IFR THROUGH 24 HOURS             
 AS LOW CLOUD DECK HOVERS AROUND 1KFT. EXPECT GUSTY NORTH WINDS OF 20           
 TO 25KTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS TO CONTINUE AS WELL. LIGHT RAIN AND                 
 DRIZZLE WILL CONTINUE WITH ICING CONDITIONS POSSIBLE JUST ABOVE THE            
 SURFACE.                                                                       
 &&                                                                             
 .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                               
 BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL  38  42  37  48  43 /  60  60  50  30  30                  
 BROWNSVILLE          37  42  36  48  43 /  60  60  50  30  30                  
 HARLINGEN            36  40  35  48  42 /  60  60  50  30  30                  
 MCALLEN              35  39  34  46  40 /  60  60  50  30  30                  
 RIO GRANDE CITY      34  38  32  45  38 /  50  60  50  30  30                  
 SOUTH PADRE ISLAND   41  44  40  48  45 /  60  60  50  30  30                  
 &&                                                                             
 .BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                            
 WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR TXZ248>253 FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT                   
 THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY                                                           
 FREEZE WARNING FOR TXZ248>251 FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT THROUGH 7 AM               
 TUESDAY.                                                                       
 GALE WARNING FOR GMZ150-155-170-175 IN EFFECT THROUGH MIDNIGHT                 
 WEDNESDAY.                                                                     
 SCA FOR GMZ130-132-135 15Z IN EFFECT THROUGH MIDNIGHT WEDNESDAY.               
 &&                                                                             
 $$                                                                             
 THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON OUR INTERNET WEB PAGE AT:                    
 HTTP://WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/BRO                                                    
 SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...60                                                            
 MARINE/AVIATION...64                                                           
 MESO...VEGA                                                                    
</pre> tx                                                                       

 AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                             
 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX                                         
 1130 AM CST MON JAN 15 2007                                                    
 .AVIATION...                                                                   
 BL MSTR STILL PREVELANT WITH SUBLIMATION/EVAPORATION OCCURING IN               
 SUB-FREEZING AIRMASS. ALSO AS CWSU NOTES...CAA/LOW-LVL THICKNESS               
 PACKING TO BE STRONG...ALONG WITH UNIDIRECTIONAL NNW FLOW IN LOWER             
 5 KFT OR SO. THUS...EXPECT PREVALING MVFR CIGS/TEMPO SCT VFR D/FW TAF          
 SITES WITH GSTY N/NW WNDS 15-20 KTS...GSTS TO 25 KTS THRU 00Z                  
 TUES...BEFORE DECOUPLING TAKES HOLD. EVEN SO...CAA TO HOLD N WNDS              
 ARND 10 KTS INTO EARLY TUES...AS MVFR CIGS DISSIPATE WITH VFR CIGS             
 (CS/AS) TAKE HOLD. KACT...NOT MUCH DIFFERENCE...EXCEPT A LITTLE                
 DELAYED ON MVFR CIGS.                                                          
 &&                                                                             
 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1056 AM CST MON JAN 15 2007/                       
 UPDATE...                                                                      
 PROGRESSION OF WINTRY MIX OF PRECIPITATION...AND SUBSEQUENT DRYING/            
 SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE BAND HAS BEEN MORE PROGRESSIVE THAN EARLIER              
 EXPECTED AND MORE IN LINE WITH THE NAM/RUC MODELS...ESPECIALLY                 
 THEIR NEW 12Z RUNS...AS BEST MID LVL FRONTOGENESIS HAS SHIFTED                 
 OVER SE CWA. EXPECT DISTURBANCES IN SUBTROPICAL JET BRANCH TO                  
 CONTINUE TO GRAZE FAR SE COUNTIES THROUGH AT LEAST 00Z TUES.                   
 ALSO...DEEPER ARCTIC AIRMASS IS NOW ARRIVING PER LATEST VWP AND                
 AREA SOUNDINGS (THOUGH 12Z FWD WAS A NO GO). DESPITE SUNSHINE OVER             
 NW 1/2 OF N TX...DEEP/DENSE AIRMASS THROUGH 5 KFT WON`T ALLOW MUCH             
 IN THE WAY OF WARMING...THOUGH INSOLATION AND TRAFFIC SHOULD HELP              
 IN THE SUBLIMATION AFFECTS OF EARLIER ICE ACCUMULATIONS.                       
 AS A RESULT...ICE STORM WARNING HAS BEEN CANCELED OVER THE NW 1/2...           
 WITH THE FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY CANCELED OVER NE COUNTIES. FREEZING            
 RAIN ADVISORY CONTS OVER SE COUNTIES (SE OF A LAMPASAS...WACO...               
 CORSICANA...CANTON LINE). SEE ADVISORY LINE BELOW. ADVISORY/WARNING            
 INFORMATION ALREADY SENT VIA FTWWSWFWD. FORECASTS AND HAZARDOUS                
 WX OUTLOOK UPDATED FOR CURRENT TRENDS AS WELL.                                 
 WE WILL BE ISSUING AN SPS FOR CONTINUED ICY ROADS/HIGHWAYS SHORTLY...          
 NAMELY FOR BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES AND SECONDARY ROADS.                         
 PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 541 AM CST MON JAN 15 2007/                         
 12Z AVIATION UPDATE...BACK EDGE OF THE PRECIPITATION IS MOVING                 
 THROUGH THE METROPLEX NOW...BUT SEVERAL OB SITES STILL REPORTING               
 SOME LIGHT FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS SOME               
 CLEARING TO THE WEST...BUT STRONG SW FLOW ALOFT MAY KEEP SOME HIGH             
 CLOUDINESS AROUND FOR A WHILE. WILL START OUT WITH IMPROVING CONDS             
 AND ONLY KEEP A TEMPO GROUP IN UNTIL 14Z TO COVER LINGERING SLEET              
 SHOWERS. CIGS IMPROVE TO VFR BY MID MORNING BUT GUSTY NORTHERLY                
 WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON. EXPECT VFR                     
 CIGS/VIS THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.                                        
 91/DUNN                                                                        
 PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 409 AM CST MON JAN 15 2007/                         
 MOST OF THE WINTER PRECIPITATION WILL SLOWLY COME TO AN END                    
 TODAY...AT LEAST IN THE ICE STORM WARNING AREA. HOWEVER...LIGHT                
 PRECIP WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING IN THE FAR SOUTH. WITH THE               
 PRECIP SLOW TO END...WE WILL EXTEND THE ICE STORM WARNING UNTIL                
 NOON TODAY AND CONTINUE THE FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY IN THE EAST.                
 THE ADVISORY MAY HAVE TO BE ADJUSTED FOR TONIGHT BUT CONSIDERING               
 THE SLOW MOVEMENT AND OTHER FACTORS...THIS WILL BE BETTER HANDLED              
 BY THE DAY CREW.                                                               
 ADDITIONAL ICE ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE LESS THAN ONE QUARTER OF AN               
 INCH IN THE WARNING AREA. MOST OF THE AREA IS WELL BELOW FREEZING              
 THIS MORNING AND WITH OVERNIGHT RAIN...ICE HAS BECOME MORE OF A                
 PROBLEM...ESPECIALLY ON ELEVATED SURFACES. THE MORNING COMMUTE                 
 WILL BE EXTREMELY DIFFICULT FOR MANY. WITH CONDITIONS IMPROVING                
 LATER THIS MORNING AS THE PRECIP MOVES OUT...HOPEFULLY MANY WILL               
 BE ABLE TO DELAY THEIR TRAVELS A FEW HOURS. STILL...WHERE THE                  
 TEMPERATURE HAS BEEN BELOW FREEZING FOR THE LAST DAY OR SO...ICE               
 HAS BEGUN TO ACCUMULATE ON SURFACES SUCH AS SIDEWALKS...MAKING                 
 EVEN WALKING DIFFICULT AT TIMES. THIS SHOULD ALSO IMPROVE AFTER                
 THE PRECIP ENDS WITH GUSTY NORTH WINDS DRYING SURFACES.                        
 TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW NORMAL THIS WEEK...IN FACT                 
 RATHER COLD THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS NORTH WINDS AND CLOUDINESS                    
 PERSIST. LIGHT PRECIP WILL PERSIST TONIGHT IN THE SOUTH BUT DO                 
 NOT ANTICIPATE SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS...AND TUESDAY WILL BE                 
 DRY. HOWEVER...ON WEDNESDAY WE WILL SEE ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL                    
 DISTURBANCE MOVE ACROSS THE AREA. WITH MORNING SURFACE LOWS WELL               
 BELOW FREEZING...ALONG WITH THE COLUMN OF AIR ABOVE...WE COULD SEE             
 SOME LIGHT SNOW IN THE MORNING...CHANGING MORE TO RAIN BY                      
 AFTERNOON.                                                                     
 TEMPERATURES SHOULD SLOWLY WARM TO MORE NORMAL READINGS AFTER                  
 WEDNESDAY...WITH A CHANCE FOR RAIN BY THE WEEKEND.                             
 &&                                                                             
 .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                               
 DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  29  24  35  23  35 /  10   0  10  10  20                 
 WACO, TX              30  25  34  25  35 /  40  10  10  10  20                 
 PARIS, TX             29  21  34  20  36 /  10   0  10  10  20                 
 DENTON, TX            29  20  35  22  35 /  10   0  10  10  20                 
 MCKINNEY, TX          29  22  34  22  36 /  10   0  10  10  20                 
 DALLAS, TX            29  25  35  23  38 /  10   0  10  10  20                 
 TERRELL, TX           30  24  34  23  37 /  20  10  10  10  20                 
 CORSICANA, TX         31  25  34  25  35 /  60  10  10  10  20                 
 TEMPLE, TX            31  26  33  25  35 /  60  20  20  10  20                 
 &&                                                                             
 .FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                            
 FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE                   
 FOLLOWING ZONES: TXZ135-146>148-158>162-174-175.                               
 &&                                                                             
 $$                                                                             
 05/42/05                                                                       
</pre> tx                                                                       

 AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                             
 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX                                         
 1056 AM CST MON JAN 15 2007                                                    
 .UPDATE...                                                                     
 PROGRESSION OF WINTRY MIX OF PRECIPITATION...AND SUBSEQUENT DRYING/            
 SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE BAND HAS BEEN MORE PROGRESSIVE THAN EARLIER              
 EXPECTED AND MORE IN LINE WITH THE NAM/RUC MODELS...ESPECIALLY                 
 THEIR NEW 12Z RUNS...AS BEST MID LVL FRONTOGENESIS HAS SHIFTED                 
 OVER SE CWA. EXPECT DISTURBANCES IN SUBTROPICAL JET BRANCH TO                  
 CONTINUE TO GRAZE FAR SE COUNTIES THROUGH AT LEAST 00Z TUES.                   
 ALSO...DEEPER ARCTIC AIRMASS IS NOW ARRIVING PER LATEST VWP AND                
 AREA SOUNDINGS (THOUGH 12Z FWD WAS A NO GO). DESPITE SUNSHINE OVER             
 NW 1/2 OF N TX...DEEP/DENSE AIRMASS THROUGH 5 KFT WON`T ALLOW MUCH             
 IN THE WAY OF WARMING...THOUGH INSOLATION AND TRAFFIC SHOULD HELP              
 IN THE SUBLIMATION AFFECTS OF EARLIER ICE ACCUMULATIONS.                       
 AS A RESULT...ICE STORM WARNING HAS BEEN CANCELED OVER THE NW 1/2...           
 WITH THE FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY CANCELED OVER NE COUNTIES. FREEZING            
 RAIN ADVISORY CONTS OVER SE COUNTIES (SE OF A LAMPASAS...WACO...               
 CORSICANA...CANTON LINE). SEE ADVISORY LINE BELOW. ADVISORY/WARNING            
 INFORMATION ALREADY SENT VIA FTWWSWFWD. FORECASTS AND HAZARDOUS                
 WX OUTLOOK UPDATED FOR CURRENT TRENDS AS WELL.                                 
 WE WILL BE ISSUING AN SPS FOR CONTINUED ICY ROADS/HIGHWAYS SHORTLY...          
 NAMELY FOR BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES AND SECONDARY ROADS.                         
 &&                                                                             
 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 541 AM CST MON JAN 15 2007/                        
 12Z AVIATION UPDATE...BACK EDGE OF THE PRECIPITATION IS MOVING                 
 THROUGH THE METROPLEX NOW...BUT SEVERAL OB SITES STILL REPORTING               
 SOME LIGHT FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS SOME               
 CLEARING TO THE WEST...BUT STRONG SW FLOW ALOFT MAY KEEP SOME HIGH             
 CLOUDINESS AROUND FOR A WHILE. WILL START OUT WITH IMPROVING CONDS             
 AND ONLY KEEP A TEMPO GROUP IN UNTIL 14Z TO COVER LINGERING SLEET              
 SHOWERS. CIGS IMPROVE TO VFR BY MID MORNING BUT GUSTY NORTHERLY                
 WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON. EXPECT VFR                     
 CIGS/VIS THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.                                        
 91/DUNN                                                                        
 PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 409 AM CST MON JAN 15 2007/                         
 MOST OF THE WINTER PRECIPITATION WILL SLOWLY COME TO AN END                    
 TODAY...AT LEAST IN THE ICE STORM WARNING AREA. HOWEVER...LIGHT                
 PRECIP WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING IN THE FAR SOUTH. WITH THE               
 PRECIP SLOW TO END...WE WILL EXTEND THE ICE STORM WARNING UNTIL                
 NOON TODAY AND CONTINUE THE FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY IN THE EAST.                
 THE ADVISORY MAY HAVE TO BE ADJUSTED FOR TONIGHT BUT CONSIDERING               
 THE SLOW MOVEMENT AND OTHER FACTORS...THIS WILL BE BETTER HANDLED              
 BY THE DAY CREW.                                                               
 ADDITIONAL ICE ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE LESS THAN ONE QUARTER OF AN               
 INCH IN THE WARNING AREA. MOST OF THE AREA IS WELL BELOW FREEZING              
 THIS MORNING AND WITH OVERNIGHT RAIN...ICE HAS BECOME MORE OF A                
 PROBLEM...ESPECIALLY ON ELEVATED SURFACES. THE MORNING COMMUTE                 
 WILL BE EXTREMELY DIFFICULT FOR MANY. WITH CONDITIONS IMPROVING                
 LATER THIS MORNING AS THE PRECIP MOVES OUT...HOPEFULLY MANY WILL               
 BE ABLE TO DELAY THEIR TRAVELS A FEW HOURS. STILL...WHERE THE                  
 TEMPERATURE HAS BEEN BELOW FREEZING FOR THE LAST DAY OR SO...ICE               
 HAS BEGUN TO ACCUMULATE ON SURFACES SUCH AS SIDEWALKS...MAKING                 
 EVEN WALKING DIFFICULT AT TIMES. THIS SHOULD ALSO IMPROVE AFTER                
 THE PRECIP ENDS WITH GUSTY NORTH WINDS DRYING SURFACES.                        
 TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW NORMAL THIS WEEK...IN FACT                 
 RATHER COLD THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS NORTH WINDS AND CLOUDINESS                    
 PERSIST. LIGHT PRECIP WILL PERSIST TONIGHT IN THE SOUTH BUT DO                 
 NOT ANTICIPATE SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS...AND TUESDAY WILL BE                 
 DRY. HOWEVER...ON WEDNESDAY WE WILL SEE ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL                    
 DISTURBANCE MOVE ACROSS THE AREA. WITH MORNING SURFACE LOWS WELL               
 BELOW FREEZING...ALONG WITH THE COLUMN OF AIR ABOVE...WE COULD SEE             
 SOME LIGHT SNOW IN THE MORNING...CHANGING MORE TO RAIN BY                      
 AFTERNOON.                                                                     
 TEMPERATURES SHOULD SLOWLY WARM TO MORE NORMAL READINGS AFTER                  
 WEDNESDAY...WITH A CHANCE FOR RAIN BY THE WEEKEND.                             
 &&                                                                             
 .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                               
 DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  29  24  35  23  35 /  10   0  10  10  20                 
 WACO, TX              30  25  34  25  35 /  40  10  10  10  20                 
 PARIS, TX             29  21  34  20  36 /  10   0  10  10  20                 
 DENTON, TX            29  20  35  22  35 /  10   0  10  10  20                 
 MCKINNEY, TX          29  22  34  22  36 /  10   0  10  10  20                 
 DALLAS, TX            29  25  35  23  38 /  10   0  10  10  20                 
 TERRELL, TX           30  24  34  23  37 /  20  10  10  10  20                 
 CORSICANA, TX         31  25  34  25  35 /  60  10  10  10  20                 
 TEMPLE, TX            31  26  33  25  35 /  60  20  20  10  20                 
 &&                                                                             
 .FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                            
 FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE                   
 FOLLOWING ZONES: TXZ135-146>148-158>162-174-175.                               
 &&                                                                             
 $$                                                                             
 05/42                                                                          
</pre> tx                                                                       

 AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                             
 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA                                         
 100 PM EST MON JAN 15 2007                                                     
 .AVIATION /18Z-18Z/...                                                         
 MVFR CEILINGS AT DAN WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT THIS AFTERNOON WITH                 
 CONDITIONS BECOMING VFR BY 21Z.                                                
 SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY MOVE WEST INTO THE MOUNTAINS THIS EVENING.              
 CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN VFR WITH MVFR VISIBILITIES IN THE              
 RAIN. FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT BETWEEN 06-12Z                   
 TUESDAY...CEILINGS WILL DROP TO MVFR IN THE MOUNTAINS. WINDS WILL              
 ALSO BE GUSTY OUT OF THE NORTHWEST BEHIND THE FRONT.                           
 &&                                                                             
 .PREV DISCUSSION...                                                            
 /ISSUED 1032 AM EST MON JAN 15 2007/                                           
 SHORT TERM /REST OF TODAY/...                                                  
 LATEST RUC AND 06Z NAM HAD THE BEST HANDLE ON THE TIMING AND                   
 LOCATION OF THE FRONT THIS MORNING. HAVE SLOWED DOWN THE ARRIVAL               
 OF THE RAIN BY A COUPLE OF HOURS. WINDS IN THE PIEDMONT ARE                    
 ALREADY GUSTING UP TO 20 KNOTS. GSO 12Z SOUNDING HAD 35 KNOT WINDS             
 BELOW 2000 FEET SO HAVE RAISED WIND SPEEDS...ESPECIALLY AT HIGHER              
 ELEVATIONS. ALSO MADE SLIGHT TWEAKS TO HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY                 
 BASED ON THE LATEST LAMP GUIDANCE AND CURRENT TEMPERATURES. NO                 
 OTHER CHANGES AT THIS TIME.                                                    
 PREV DISCUSSION...                                                             
 /ISSUED 621 AM EST MON JAN 15 2007/                                            
 AVIATION /12Z-12Z/...                                                          
 MOISTURE WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY WITH OCNL MVFR IN               
 LOW CLOUDS ACROSS THE SOUTH THIS MORNING AND AT BLF/LWB THIS                   
 AFTERNOON. EXPECT ANY REDUCTIONS IN VSBY DUE TO -SHRA TO HOLD OFF              
 ACROSS SE WVA UNTIL EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AND ELSEWHERE BY EARLY                
 EVENING. STRONG SW JET ALOFT WILL MAKE FOR EARLY WIND SHEAR                    
 PROBLEMS ESPCLY WHERE SURFACE REMAIN LIGHT SO WILL INCLUDE IN A                
 FEW SPOTS UNTIL BETTER MIXING DEVELOPS. COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH               
 FROM THE WEST OVERNIGHT PRECEDED BY A BAND OF SHRA. THIS SHOULD                
 KEEP PREVAILING MVFR CONDITIONS AT LWB/BLF BUT MAINLY VFR IN THE               
 EAST WHERE PRECIP SHOULD BE RATHER LIGHT. MAY HAVE A PERIOD OF IFR             
 ESPCLY BLF BY 12Z TUE WHEN RAIN WILL HAVE LIKELY CHANGED TO                    
 -SHSN...OTRW RANGE FROM CONTINUED MVFR SE WVA TO VFR CEILINGS                  
 ELSEWHERE INTO EARLY TUE.                                                      
 PREV DISCUSSION...                                                             
 /ISSUED 251 AM EST MON JAN 15 2007/                                            
 SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...                                          
 COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE OHIO VALLEY SW TO THE ARKLATEX WILL              
 FINALLY START TO SHIFT EAST TODAY AS FINAL SURFACE LOW AND UPPER               
 SYSTEM SHEAR BY TO THE NW. HOWEVER STRONG UPPER RIDGE OVER THE SE              
 SHOULD BE ABLE TO AGAIN SLOW THE FRONT AND ASSOCIATED DEEP MOISTURE            
 ENOUGH TO ALLOW ANOTHER VERY MILD DAY ACROSS THE AREA. THIS SUPPORTED          
 BY MODEL RH SECTIONS WHICH INDICATE MID/HIGH CLOUDS EARLY THEN                 
 INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BEFORE ARC OF SHRA WORKS INTO THE                
 FAR WESTERN ZONES BY MID OR LATE AFTERNOON. ALSO GIVEN PARALLEL                
 NATURE OF BOUNDARY TO UPPER FLOW AND RAIN BEING WELL WEST EARLY                
 THIS MORNING...PLAN TO SLOW POPS...WITH ANY CHANCES FAR WESTERN                
 SLOPES TOWARD EARLY AFTERNOON...THEN QUICKLY INCREASING TO                     
 LIKELY/CAT LATE AS EDGE OF PRECIP SHIELD ARRIVES. MAY BE TOUGH TO              
 SEE MUCH PRECIP AT ALL EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE UNTIL THIS                       
 EVENING...SO CUTTING BACK TO 20/30 POP AND BASICALLY DRY SOUTHSIDE             
 VA. ALTHO NOT QUITE AS WARM ALOFT TODAY...WARM START AND                       
 INCREASING SW TRAJECTORY SHOULD AGAIN SEND HIGHS ABOVE 70                      
 EAST...AND INTO THE 60S WEST PENDING AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE.                       
 FRONT SHOULD CROSS THE MOUNTAINS THIS EVENING AND EXIT THE COAST TUE           
 MORNING. PRE-FRONTAL MOISTURE GETS QUITE STRETCHED OUT CROSSING                
 THE RIDGES WITH BEST SUPPORT EXITING NORTH WHILE INSTABILITY WELL              
 TO THE SOUTH. EXPECT BEST COVERAGE FAR WEST EARLY ON AS BAND OF                
 SHRA NUDGES EAST AND WEAKENS BEFORE JUMPING INTO THE PIEDMONT                  
 TOWARD MORNING AS NEXT WEAK IMPULSE RIDES UP THE FRONT. THEREFORE              
 LIKELY POPS WEST AND FAR SE...WITH MAINLY CHANCE BLUE RIDGE WHERE              
 RH LOOKS LIMITED BY LEFTOVER MID LEVEL DRY AIR PER RAOBS. 85H                  
 FRONT SHOULD CHASE DOWN ANY LINGERING SHRA FAR NW TOWARD MORNING               
 WITH CHANGE TO -SHSN LIKELY BY 12Z. END OF WARMTH WILL BE MARKED               
 BY STRONG COLD ADVECTION AIDED BY GUSTY NW WINDS AND TEMPS GOING               
 NOWHERE ON TUE. MAY HAVE A FEW LINGERING SHRA PIEDMONT TUE                     
 MORNING...OTRW LOOKING AT A PERIOD OF UPSLOPE -SHSN ESPCLY NW                  
 SLOPES WHERE AN INCH OR TWO OF SNOW POSSIBLE. ELSEWHERE WILL CUT               
 BACK POPS GIVEN DOWNSLOPE DRYING AND LOWERING DEWPTS. COULD BE A               
 PERIOD OF WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA BLUE RIDGE AS COLD AIR SURGES IN              
 EARLY TUE...OTRW BLUSTERY/COLD WITH HIGHS 30S WEST AND STEADY IN               
 THE 40S OUT EAST.                                                              
 LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...                                    
 QUIET BUT COLD WEATHER IN STORE EARLY IN THE PERIOD AS LARGE SURFACE           
 HIGH BUILDS EAST AND THEN SHIFTS OFFSHORE THU. FORTUNATELY CORE OF             
 ARCTIC AIR WILL SLIDE BY TO THE NORTH...WITH COLDER 85H TEMPS                  
 LIFTING OUT THRU THURSDAY ALLOWING A SLOW TEMP MODERATION UNDER                
 SUNSHINE. NEXT 5H TROF WILL SWING SE TOWARD THE MID ATLANTIC BY                
 FRIDAY AS QUICK SHOT OF SOUTHERN STREAM RH ATTEMPTS TO LINK UP ALONG           
 THE COAST LATE THU NIGHT/EARLY FRIDAY. GFS FARTHEST WEST OF ANY                
 MODELS WITH SECONDARY WEAK SURFACE LOW WHILE THE REST WELL                     
 SOUTH/EAST WITH RH LINKAGE. SINCE APPEARS FLOW TOO FAST FOR MUCH               
 PHASING...WILL CONTINUE WITH ISOLATED POPS WITH THE NEXT FRONT FOR             
 NOW. OTRW LOOKS LIKE YET ANOTHER COLD SHOT FOR NEXT WEEKEND BUT DRY            
 OUTSIDE UPSLOPE -SHSN UNDER NORTHERN STREAM TROF. WILL LOWER HIGHS A           
 BIT SAT/SUNDAY AS AIRMASS LOOKS COLDER OTRW FEW CHANGES.                       
 CLIMATE...                                                                     
 RECORD HIGHS FOR JAN 15TH                                                      
  BLACKSBURG...61 IN 1971                                                       
  ROANOKE......73 IN 1952                                                       
  LYHCHBURG....75 IN 1932                                                       
  DANVILLE.....74 IN 1952                                                       
  BLUEFIELD....60 IN 1995                                                       
 PREV DISCUSSION...                                                             
 /ISSUED 1245 AM EST MON JAN 15 2007/                                           
 AVIATION...                                                                    
 GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH AT                 
 LEAST THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. COLD FRONT POISED TO SLOWLY MOVE              
 INTO THE AREA BY THE LATE AFTERNOON. THIS FEATURE WILL BRING MVFR              
 CONDITIONS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS TO SE WV AND THEN THESE WILL                  
 PROGRESS THROUGH THE AREA IN ASSOCIATION TO THE FRONT. BY MONDAY               
 EVENING THE FRONT SHOULD BE THROUGH THE REGION WITH WINDS WESTERLY             
 ACROSS THE AREA WITH CEILINGS RETURNING TO VFR LEVELS.                         
 STRONG LOW LEVEL JET IN ADVANCE OF THE COLD FRONT SHOULD HELP                  
 MAINTAIN LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR ABOVE THE WV TAF SITES THROUGH                   
 SUNRISE TODAY.                                                                 
 PREV DISCUSSION...                                                             
 /ISSUED 920 PM EST SUN JAN 14 2007/                                            
 UPDATE...                                                                      
 MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPS OVERNIGHT...MOSTLY UP A DEG OR TWO.             
 ITS GOING TO BE ANOTHER MILD NIGHT WITH PERIODS OF CLOUDINESS AND              
 LOW LEVEL MIXING INCREASING LATE AS SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT                      
 TIGHTENS. OTHERWISE NO CHGS.                                                   
 PREV DISCUSSION...                                                             
 /ISSUED 618 PM EST SUN JAN 14 2007/                                            
 AVIATION /23Z-18Z/...                                                          
 LARGE SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OFF THE MID ATLANTIC             
 AND SOUTHEASTERN COAST WILL GRADUALLY RETREAT EAST THROUGH THE                 
 PERIOD AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER NORTHEASTERN TEXAS AND LIFTS              
 NORTHEAST INTO THE OHIO VALLEY BY SUNRISE. INCREASING PRESSURE                 
 GRADIENT BETWEEN THE TWO SYSTEMS...AND SCATTERED TO BROKEN CANOPY OF           
 MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS...SHOULD MINIMIZE POTENTIAL FOR                      
 SIGNIFICANT RADIATIONAL COOLING AND KEEP THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE                  
 ADEQUATELY MIXED TO PREVENT DEVELOPMENT OF ANY WIDESPREAD FOG OR LOW           
 CEILING CONDITIONS.                                                            
 DESPITE THE ABOVE...THE REDEVELOPMENT OF SOME LOCALIZED FOG IN THE             
 MOST SHELTERED OF LOW LYING AREAS SUCH AS LEWISBURG WILL LIKELY                
 OCCUR AGAIN TONIGHT UNTIL SHORTLY AFTER DAYBREAK.                              
 OTHERWISE...THE APPROACH OF A STRONG COLD FRONT FROM THE NORTHWEST             
 WILL RESULT IN AN INCREASE OF CLOUDS AND THREAT OF PRECIPITATION               
 AS MONDAY PROGRESSES. THE BEST THREAT OF PRECIPITATION WILL ARRIVE             
 AFTER 18Z. VFR CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE TO MVFR...POSSIBLY IFR              
 ALONG WESTERN SLOPES DURING THE AFTERNOON. ALSO BEFORE THE FRONTAL             
 PRECIP ARRIVES...INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY JET WILL MIX TO THE                  
 SURFACE FROM MID MONDAY MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON. SUSTAINED              
 WINDS WILL BE ON THE ORDER OF 12-18KTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 25-30KTS.              
 HIGHER WINDS SPEEDS ARE POSSIBLE ABOVE 5KFT WITH A 50+KT LOW LEVEL             
 JET TRANSVERSING THE REGION.                                                   
 PREV DISCUSSION...                                                             
 /ISSUED 153 PM EST SUN JAN 14 2007/                                            
 SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...                                
 STRONG SHORT WAVE IN THE CENTRAL ROCKIES LIFTS INTO THE GREAT LAKES            
 ON MONDAY AND PUSHES THE UPPER TROF THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA ON               
 TUESDAY NIGHT.                                                                 
 IN AN EFFORT TO NARROW DOWN WHEN BEST CHANCE OF RAIN WILL BE WILL              
 REMOVE ANY CHANCE BEFORE NOON ON MONDAY. MODELS HAVE A SHORT WAVE              
 COMING THROUGH ON MONDAY EVENING WITH Q-V FORCING AND SOME                     
 FRONTOGENESIS. THERE ARE WEST TO SOUTHWEST LOW LEVEL WINDS AND NO              
 ISENTROPIC LIFT ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT HOWEVER...SO                      
 PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WILL BE LOW. GUIDANCE IS STILL SHOWING A SPLIT           
 IN RAINFALL AMOUNTS TO THE NORTHWEST AND SOUTH OF THE COUNTY WARNING           
 AREA.                                                                          
 BASING THE TIMING OF THE FRONT ON THE GFS. THE SURFACE FRONT COMES             
 THROUGH THE COUNTY WARNING AREA ON MONDAY EVENING...WITH THE 850 MB            
 FRONTAL PASSAGE ON TUESDAY MORNING. DEEP MOISTURE CROSSES THE                  
 FORECAST AREA BETWEEN 18Z MONDAY AND 06Z TUESDAY. THEN CLOUDS WILL             
 CLEAR IN THE SOUTHEAST ON TUESDAY AND IN THE NORTHWEST ON WEDNESDAY            
 MORNING. VERY DRY AIRMASS WILL THEN RESULT IN LITTLE TO NO CLOUD               
 COVER THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING.                                                
 HIGH PRESSURE NOW OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE           
 SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS...AND SURFACE DEWPOINTS AROUND ZERO BUILDS             
 IN BEHIND THE FRONT...CROSSES THE FORECAST AREA ON WEDNESDAY THEN              
 MOVES OFFSHORE BY THURSDAY MORNING. THE ARCTIC AIRMASS WILL MODIFY             
 BY THE TIME IT REACHES THE MID ATLANTIC STATES...BUT AREA IS STILL             
 LOOKING AT TEMPERATURES BY TUESDAY AROUND 25 DEGREES COLDER THAN THE           
 RECORD SETTING WARMTH TODAY. WILL HAVE STEADY OR FALLING TEMPERATURE           
 TRENDS ON TUESDAY ALONG WITH GUSTY WINDS. SURFACE WINDS WILL START             
 TO DIMINISH ON TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE HIGH APPROACHES.                           
 USED CURRENT TRENDS OF THE MAV GUIDANCE FOR LOWS TONIGHT AND HIGHS             
 ON MONDAY. BIGGEST DEPARTURE FROM MAV NUMBERS WAS TO RAISE MAXIMUM             
 TEMPERATURES FOR LEWISBURG.                                                    
 LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...                                         
 LARGE RANGE OF SOLUTIONS BETWEEN DIFFERENT MODELS BY THE END OF THE            
 WEEK. OPERATIONAL GFS HAS MORE PROGRESSIVE SOUTHWEST UNITED STATES             
 LOW AND STRONGER UPPER RIDGE IN THE SOUTHEAST WHILE ECMWF HAS A                
 DEEPER TROF IN THE NORTHEAST. GFS ENSEMBLES ARE A COMPROMISE BETWEEN           
 THESE SOLUTIONS WITH TROFING IN THE WEST AND ZONAL FLOW IN THE EAST            
 THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH A LONG WAVE TROF DIGGING IN THE NORTHEAST             
 UNTIED STATES BY SATURDAY.                                                     
 THIS WILL INFLUENCE HOW FAST ANY MOISTURE WILL RETURN IN THE WEST              
 SIDE OF THE ARCTIC HIGH. ALSO INDICATES ANY ORGANIZED SYNOPTIC LIFT            
 WILL BE IN THE REGION ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AS THE TROF DEEPENS IN            
 THE NORTHEAST. WILL INTRODUCE LOW CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION ON FRIDAY            
 AND SATURDAY. ALSO HAVE TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN MEX                  
 GUIDANCE FOR FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.                                            
 &&                                                                             
 .RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                            
 VA...NONE.                                                                     
 NC...NONE.                                                                     
 WV...NONE.                                                                     
 &&                                                                             
 $$                                                                             
 AVIATION...AMS                                                                 
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