SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                         
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA                                  
1054 PM PST MON NOV 3 2008                                                      
...UPDATED AVIATION SECTION...                                                  
.UPDATE...RAIN WILL BECOME LIKELY OVER PORTIONS OF THE TONIGHT                  
THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. RAIN WILL BE A QUICK SHOT SOUTH OF               
POINT CONCEPTION...AND SOME CONCERN IS THAT POPS MAY BE OVERDONE                
SOUTH OF POINT CONCEPTION. WITH LITTLE WARM AIR ADVECTION AND A                 
LACK OF SOUTHWEST LOW-LEVEL FLOW IN PLACE...RAIN BAND ASSOCIATED                
WITH FRONT COULD FIZZLE SOUTH OF POINT CONCEPTION...HOWEVER...WITH              
SATELLITE IMAGERY STILL INDICATING A DECENT CLOUD BAND PUSHING                  
SOUTH OVER THE AREA...FORECAST WAS UPDATED TO SPEED UP                          
PRECIPITATION AND HIGH CHANCES WERE LEFT IN FOR NOW.                            
ADDITIONAL CONCERNS HAVE DEVELOPED WITH WINDS DEVELOPING OVER THE               
ANTELOPE VALLEY THIS EVENING. WITH NAM-WRF...GFS...AND 13 KM RUC                
INDICATE 850 MB WINDS INCREASING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...UPPER-                 
LEVEL SUPPORT AT 700 MB...AND DECENT THERMAL GRADIENTS AT 850 MB                
AND 700 MB. A WIND ADVISORY WAS ISSUED FOR THE LOS ANGELES COUNTY               
MOUNTAINS AND THE ANTELOPE VALLEY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT THROUGH                 
TUESDAY NIGHT. NAM-WRF AND 13 KM RUC INDICATE GOOD BOUNDARY LAYER               
WINDS DEVELOPING AS WELL. WIND FOCUS SHOULD BE ON THE ANTELOPE                  
VALLEY AND NON-COASTAL SLOPES OF THE MOUNTAINS THROUGH LATE                     
TONIGHT...THEN BEHIND THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY THE FOCUS WILL SHIFT TO              
AREAS OF THE ANTELOPE VALLEY THAT RESPOND WELL IN NORTHWEST WINDS.              
THESE AREAS ARE MAINLY WEST OF SR-14. IN ADDITION...THE FOCUS OF                
THE WINDS IN THE MOUNTAINS WILL LIKELY BECOME THE I-5 CORRIDOR ON               
TUESDAY. KSDB MOS GUIDANCE INDICATES NEAR ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS                  
EARLY TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING. WIND ADVISORY WAS                
ISSUED TO ADD THE VENTURA COUNTY MOUNTAINS BY DAYBREAK.                         
WIND ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR THE CENTRAL                           
COAST...SOUTHERN SANTA BARBARA COUNTY...AND POSSIBLY THE VENTURA                
COUNTY COASTAL PLAIN FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MOS                     
GUIDANCE VALUE SUPPORT WIND ADVISORY LEVELS AND NAM-WRF BOUNDARY                
LAYER AND 950 MB LEVELS INDICATE ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS DEVELOP                   
TUESDAY AFTERNOON. LATEST MOS GUIDANCE SEEMS TO BE GOING LIGHTER                
THAN PAST RUNS AT KOXR...BUT THE VENTURA COUNTY COASTAL PLAIN                   
SEEMS TO GET SLIGHTLY STRONGER WIND CHANCES IN NORTHWEST FLOW.                  
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 200 PM PST MON NOV 3 2008/                          
SHORT TERM (TODAY-THURSDAY)...                                                  
TEMPS REMAIN ON THE COOL SIDE AS A COOL AIRMASS WITH SHADING CLOUD              
COVER HAS KEPT TEMPS ON PAR TO A BIT COOLER THAN YESTERDAY. A SMALL             
BUT NEGATIVELY-TILTING TROUGH OVER THE NRN CA COAST HAS SPAWNED A               
WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM. THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT THAT WAS JUST                    
REACHING THE SFO AREA WILL CONTINUE TO WORK ITS WAY DOWN THE COAST              
TONIGHT. ALTHOUGH THIS FRONT DOES NOT LOOK ALL THAT IMPRESSIVE ON               
SATELLITE...RADARS UP NORTH CONFIRM A STEADY AMOUNT OF RAINFALL                 
THANKS TO THE AMPLE MOISTURE STILL IN PLACE. STILL EXPECTING                    
MEASURABLE RAINFALL FOR THE ENTIRE AREA TONIGHT INTO TUE...BUT                  
AMOUNTS SHOULD BE ON THE LIGHTER SIDE. EXPECTING BETWEEN ONE QUARTER            
AND ONE HALF OF AN INCH NORTH OF PT CONCEPTION...WHILE A QUARTER OF             
AN INCH OR LESS SEEMS APPROPRIATE TO THE SOUTH. SNOW LEVELS SHOULD              
LOWER TO THE 6000 TO 7000 FT RANGE BY TUE MORNING...SO A LIGHT                  
DUSTING IS EXPECTED OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF LA/VTU CO MTNS.               
THE PRECIP SHOULD BE OUT OF THE AREA BY TUE EVE. THE REST OF THE                
WEEK LOOKS TO STAY DRY...EXCEPT FOR SOME NORTH SLOPE STUFF POSSIBLE             
TUE NIGHT INTO WED.                                                             
BESIDES THE CLOUDS AND PRECIP...WINDS WILL BE ON THE RISE AHEAD AND             
BEHIND OF THIS FRONT. GUSTY WEST WINDS SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH MOST             
OF TONIGHT IN MUCH OF THE AREA...ESPECIALLY IN THE MTNS AND THE                 
ANTELOPE VLY...WHERE SOME SPOTS MAY FLIRT WITH ADVISORY. ONCE THE               
FRONT PASSES...A MODERATE COLD AIR-ADVECTING NWLY JET COUPLED WITH A            
SURFACE HIGH QUICKLY BUILDING IN NEAR THE NRN CA COAST WILL INCREASE            
NORTH WINDS. EXPECTING ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS FOR THE LA/VTU/SBA MTNS             
TUE NIGHT INTO WED...INCLUDING THE SBA SOUTH COAST AND WESTERN                  
ANTELOPE VLY. WE SHOULD SEE PEAK GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH. GUSTY WINDS ARE            
ALSO EXPECTED ALONG THE COASTAL AREAS...ESPECIALLY THE CENTRAL COAST.           
TO FINISH OFF THE WIND STORY...THESE NORTHERLY WINDS LOOK TO SHIFT              
TO THE NORTHEAST WED NIGHT INTO THU...AS THE HIGH PRESSURE                      
PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED PUSHES INTO UTAH. DOES NOT LOOK LIKE AN                    
ADVISORY EVENT...BUT COULD SEE SOME GUSTIES IN THE MTNS.                        
TEMPS SHOULD BE ABOUT THE SAME ON TUE AS TODAY ALONG THE COAST AND              
VLYS. MTNS AND DESERTS SHOULD SEE A HEALTHY DROP HOWEVER...TAPPING              
INTO THE COLDER AIR ALOFT AND TO THE EAST. AS THE SYSTEM THAT                   
AFFECTS US TONIGHT MOVES FURTHER EAST...A RIDGE WILL BUILD IN FROM              
THE WEST. ADD THAT TO OFFSHORE TRENDING GRADIENTS...AND TEMPS WILL              
BE ON THE REBOUND...MAX AND MINS. SOME SPOTS LIKE THE CENTRAL                   
COASTAL MAY EVEN SEE A MUCH LARGER JUMP THAN EVERYWHERE ELSE...AS               
MODELS ARE HINTING AT OFFSHORE GRADS THROUGH THE DAY AND EARLY                  
AFTERNOON NORTHEAST FLOW.                                                       
LONG TERM (FRIDAY-MONDAY)...                                                    
TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN WARM ON FRIDAY...AS OFFSHORE FLOW WEAKENS BUT               
CONTINUES...AND THE RIDGE AMPLIFIES. THE 12Z ECMWF BREAKS THE RIDGE             
DOWN EARLIER THAN ITS GFS COUSIN...SO FRI MAY BE A LITTLE COOLER OR             
A LITTLE WARMER THAN FRI. CURRENT FORECAST IS LEANING ON THE GFS.               
BOTH MODELS PRODUCE AN INSIDE SLIDER DROPPING DOWN FROM THE NORTH ON            
SAT AND SUN. TO NO SURPRISE THIS FAR OUT...THE MODELS AND ENSEMBLES             
ARE ALL OVER THE PLACE ON THE POSITION OF THIS LOW. FOR THIS                    
REASON...WE COULD GET SOME RAIN OR SOME NORTH WIND...OR A LITTLE OF             
BOTH. WILL JUST HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON IT AND SEE HOW IT PLAYS OUT.             
EITHER WAY...GRADS SHOULD TURN ONSHORE AND THICKS SHOULD FALL RATHER            
QUICKLY...AND TEMPS SHOULD DROP BACK DOWN.                                      
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...04/0654Z.                                                           
MVFR TO VFR CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR OVER MUCH OF THE AREA THROUGHOUT              
THE NIGHT AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHES SOUTH OVER THE AREA. LOCAL             
IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL BETWEEN               
NOW AND 15Z. VFR CONDITIONS WITH LOCAL MVFR CONDITIONS SHOULD                   
REDEVELOP OVER THE ENTIRE AREA AFTER 15Z.                                       
KLAX...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST 08Z...OR 10Z AT             
THE LATEST OVER THE KLAX AREA...WITH MVFR CONDITIONS MOVING OVER THE            
TERMINAL. A 30 PERCENT CHANCE EXISTS THAT IFR CONDITIONS COULD                  
DEVELOP BETWEEN 12Z AND 14Z WHEN PRECIPITATION IS MORE LIKELY. AFTER            
16Z...OR 18Z AT THE LATEST...VFR CONDITIONS WILL REDEVELOP OVER KLAX.           
KBUR...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST AT KBUR THROUGH AT LEAST 08Z...OR            
10Z AT THE LATEST. MVFR CONDITIONS SHOULD MOVE OVER THE TERMINAL                
BETWEEN 08Z AND 10Z. IFR CONDITIONS HAVE A 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF                 
DEVELOPING BETWEEN 11Z AND 14Z WHEN PRECIPITATION IS MORE LIKELY.               
PRECIPITATION SHOULD BECOME MORE SHOWERY AFTER 15Z WITH THE EARLIEST            
DEVELOPMENT OF VFR CONDITION AFTER 18Z...OR 20Z AT THE LATEST.                  
&&                                                                              
.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
WIND ADVISORY (SEE LAXNPWLOX).                                                  
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).                                           
GALE WARNING (SEE LAXMWWLOX).                                                   
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
PUBLIC...HALL/KITTELL                                                           
AVIATION...HALL/MEIER                                                           
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES                                                      
</pre> ca                                                                       

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                   
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA                                  
1011 PM PST MON NOV 3 2008                                                      
.UPDATE...RAIN WILL BECOME LIKELY OVER PORTIONS OF THE TONIGHT                  
THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. RAIN WILL BE A QUICK SHOT SOUTH OF               
POINT CONCEPTION...AND SOME CONCERN IS THAT POPS MAY BE OVERDONE                
SOUTH OF POINT CONCEPTION. WITH LITTLE WARM AIR ADVECTION AND A                 
LACK OF SOUTHWEST LOW-LEVEL FLOW IN PLACE...RAIN BAND ASSOCIATED                
WITH FRONT COULD FIZZLE SOUTH OF POINT CONCEPTION...HOWEVER...WITH              
SATELLITE IMAGERY STILL INDICATING A DECENT CLOUD BAND PUSHING                  
SOUTH OVER THE AREA...FORECAST WAS UPDATED TO SPEED UP                          
PRECIPITATION AND HIGH CHANCES WERE LEFT IN FOR NOW.                            
ADDITIONAL CONCERNS HAVE DEVELOPED WITH WINDS DEVELOPING OVER THE               
ANTELOPE VALLEY THIS EVENING. WITH NAM-WRF...GFS...AND 13 KM RUC                
INDICATE 850 MB WINDS INCREASING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...UPPER-                 
LEVEL SUPPORT AT 700 MB...AND DECENT THERMAL GRADIENTS AT 850 MB                
AND 700 MB. A WIND ADVISORY WAS ISSUED FOR THE LOS ANGELES COUNTY               
MOUNTAINS AND THE ANTELOPE VALLEY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT THROUGH                 
TUESDAY NIGHT. NAM-WRF AND 13 KM RUC INDICATE GOOD BOUNDARY LAYER               
WINDS DEVELOPING AS WELL. WIND FOCUS SHOULD BE ON THE ANTELOPE                  
VALLEY AND NON-COASTAL SLOPES OF THE MOUNTAINS THROUGH LATE                     
TONIGHT...THEN BEHIND THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY THE FOCUS WILL SHIFT TO              
AREAS OF THE ANTELOPE VALLEY THAT RESPOND WELL IN NORTHWEST WINDS.              
THESE AREAS ARE MAINLY WEST OF SR-14. IN ADDITION...THE FOCUS OF                
THE WINDS IN THE MOUNTAINS WILL LIKELY BECOME THE I-5 CORRIDOR ON               
TUESDAY. KSDB MOS GUIDANCE INDICATES NEAR ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS                  
EARLY TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING. WIND ADVISORY WAS                
ISSUED TO ADD THE VENTURA COUNTY MOUNTAINS BY DAYBREAK.                         
WIND ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR THE CENTRAL                           
COAST...SOUTHERN SANTA BARBARA COUNTY...AND POSSIBLY THE VENTURA                
COUNTY COASTAL PLAIN FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MOS                     
GUIDANCE VALUE SUPPORT WIND ADVISORY LEVELS AND NAM-WRF BOUNDARY                
LAYER AND 950 MB LEVELS INDICATE ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS DEVELOP                   
TUESDAY AFTERNOON. LATEST MOS GUIDANCE SEEMS TO BE GOING LIGHTER                
THAN PAST RUNS AT KOXR...BUT THE VENTURA COUNTY COASTAL PLAIN                   
SEEMS TO GET SLIGHTLY STRONGER WIND CHANCES IN NORTHWEST FLOW.                  
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 200 PM PST MON NOV 3 2008/                          
SHORT TERM (TODAY-THURSDAY)...                                                  
TEMPS REMAIN ON THE COOL SIDE AS A COOL AIRMASS WITH SHADING CLOUD              
COVER HAS KEPT TEMPS ON PAR TO A BIT COOLER THAN YESTERDAY. A SMALL             
BUT NEGATIVELY-TILTING TROUGH OVER THE NRN CA COAST HAS SPAWNED A               
WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM. THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT THAT WAS JUST                    
REACHING THE SFO AREA WILL CONTINUE TO WORK ITS WAY DOWN THE COAST              
TONIGHT. ALTHOUGH THIS FRONT DOES NOT LOOK ALL THAT IMPRESSIVE ON               
SATELLITE...RADARS UP NORTH CONFIRM A STEADY AMOUNT OF RAINFALL                 
THANKS TO THE AMPLE MOISTURE STILL IN PLACE. STILL EXPECTING                    
MEASURABLE RAINFALL FOR THE ENTIRE AREA TONIGHT INTO TUE...BUT                  
AMOUNTS SHOULD BE ON THE LIGHTER SIDE. EXPECTING BETWEEN ONE QUARTER            
AND ONE HALF OF AN INCH NORTH OF PT CONCEPTION...WHILE A QUARTER OF             
AN INCH OR LESS SEEMS APPROPRIATE TO THE SOUTH. SNOW LEVELS SHOULD              
LOWER TO THE 6000 TO 7000 FT RANGE BY TUE MORNING...SO A LIGHT                  
DUSTING IS EXPECTED OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF LA/VTU CO MTNS.               
THE PRECIP SHOULD BE OUT OF THE AREA BY TUE EVE. THE REST OF THE                
WEEK LOOKS TO STAY DRY...EXCEPT FOR SOME NORTH SLOPE STUFF POSSIBLE             
TUE NIGHT INTO WED.                                                             
BESIDES THE CLOUDS AND PRECIP...WINDS WILL BE ON THE RISE AHEAD AND             
BEHIND OF THIS FRONT. GUSTY WEST WINDS SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH MOST             
OF TONIGHT IN MUCH OF THE AREA...ESPECIALLY IN THE MTNS AND THE                 
ANTELOPE VLY...WHERE SOME SPOTS MAY FLIRT WITH ADVISORY. ONCE THE               
FRONT PASSES...A MODERATE COLD AIR-ADVECTING NWLY JET COUPLED WITH A            
SURFACE HIGH QUICKLY BUILDING IN NEAR THE NRN CA COAST WILL INCREASE            
NORTH WINDS. EXPECTING ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS FOR THE LA/VTU/SBA MTNS             
TUE NIGHT INTO WED...INCLUDING THE SBA SOUTH COAST AND WESTERN                  
ANTELOPE VLY. WE SHOULD SEE PEAK GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH. GUSTY WINDS ARE            
ALSO EXPECTED ALONG THE COASTAL AREAS...ESPECIALLY THE CENTRAL COAST.           
TO FINISH OFF THE WIND STORY...THESE NORTHERLY WINDS LOOK TO SHIFT              
TO THE NORTHEAST WED NIGHT INTO THU...AS THE HIGH PRESSURE                      
PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED PUSHES INTO UTAH. DOES NOT LOOK LIKE AN                    
ADVISORY EVENT...BUT COULD SEE SOME GUSTIES IN THE MTNS.                        
TEMPS SHOULD BE ABOUT THE SAME ON TUE AS TODAY ALONG THE COAST AND              
VLYS. MTNS AND DESERTS SHOULD SEE A HEALTHY DROP HOWEVER...TAPPING              
INTO THE COLDER AIR ALOFT AND TO THE EAST. AS THE SYSTEM THAT                   
AFFECTS US TONIGHT MOVES FURTHER EAST...A RIDGE WILL BUILD IN FROM              
THE WEST. ADD THAT TO OFFSHORE TRENDING GRADIENTS...AND TEMPS WILL              
BE ON THE REBOUND...MAX AND MINS. SOME SPOTS LIKE THE CENTRAL                   
COASTAL MAY EVEN SEE A MUCH LARGER JUMP THAN EVERYWHERE ELSE...AS               
MODELS ARE HINTING AT OFFSHORE GRADS THROUGH THE DAY AND EARLY                  
AFTERNOON NORTHEAST FLOW.                                                       
LONG TERM (FRIDAY-MONDAY)...                                                    
TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN WARM ON FRIDAY...AS OFFSHORE FLOW WEAKENS BUT               
CONTINUES...AND THE RIDGE AMPLIFIES. THE 12Z ECMWF BREAKS THE RIDGE             
DOWN EARLIER THAN ITS GFS COUSIN...SO FRI MAY BE A LITTLE COOLER OR             
A LITTLE WARMER THAN FRI. CURRENT FORECAST IS LEANING ON THE GFS.               
BOTH MODELS PRODUCE AN INSIDE SLIDER DROPPING DOWN FROM THE NORTH ON            
SAT AND SUN. TO NO SURPRISE THIS FAR OUT...THE MODELS AND ENSEMBLES             
ARE ALL OVER THE PLACE ON THE POSITION OF THIS LOW. FOR THIS                    
REASON...WE COULD GET SOME RAIN OR SOME NORTH WIND...OR A LITTLE OF             
BOTH. WILL JUST HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON IT AND SEE HOW IT PLAYS OUT.             
EITHER WAY...GRADS SHOULD TURN ONSHORE AND THICKS SHOULD FALL RATHER            
QUICKLY...AND TEMPS SHOULD DROP BACK DOWN.                                      
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...04/0000Z.                                                           
FAST MOVING COLD FRONT ACROSS CENTRAL CALIFORNIA BRINGING                       
PRECIPITATION AS FAR SOUTH AS SOUTHERN MONTERY COUNTY AS OF 00Z.                
AHEAD OF THE FRONT...WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY NORTH OF POINT                 
CONCEPTION...BUT WINDS ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED TO REMAIN WESTERLY FOR            
AREAS SOUTH OF POINT CONCEPTION AS THE FRONT ARRIVES THERE                      
OVERNIGHT. WOULD EXPECT MOST AREAS TO RECEIVE 3 TO 6 HOURS OF LIGHT             
RAIN WITH THE FRONT...WITH A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE BEFORE AND AFTER              
FRONT. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS EXPECTED TO BUILD BEHIND THE FRONT ON              
TUESDAY...WITH INCREASING WESTERLY WINDS ACROSS THE ANTELOPE                    
VALLEY.                                                                         
KLAX...WOULD EXPECT WESTERLY WINDS TO REAMIN IN THE 10 TO 15 KNOT RANGE         
FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT AHEAD OF THE FRONT. CEILING HEIGHT BETWEEN 2500           
AND 4000 FEET EXPECTED BEFORE FRONT ARRIVAL...WITH POSSIBILITY OF LIGHT         
SHOWERS BY AROUND 08Z. BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE              
BETWEEN 11Z-15Z. BEHIND FRONT...EXPECT GUSTY WEST WINDS 15 TO 20 KNOTS          
ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON.                                                           
KBUR...CEILINGS EXPECTED TO LOWER OVERNIGHT AS FRONT APPROACHES THE             
AREA. JUST BEFORE FRONT ARRIVAL...SHOULD SEE SOME SOUTHEAST WINDS               
IN THE 6 TO 10 KNOT RANGE. POSSIBILITY OF LIGHT SHOWERS AS EARLY AS             
08Z...BUT BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE BETWEEN                   
11Z-16Z.                                                                        
&&                                                                              
.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
WIND ADVISORY (SEE LAXNPWLOX).                                                  
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).                                           
GALE WARNING (SEE LAXMWWLOX).                                                   
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
PUBLIC...HALL/KITTELL                                                           
AVIATION...GOMBERG                                                              
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES                                                      
</pre> ca                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED                                            
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE UPTON NY                                               
132 PM EST WED NOV 5 2008                                                       
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
LOW PRES DEEPENING EAST OF CAPE HATTERAS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WILL              
MOVE N TO A POSITION E OF THE DELMARVA EARLY THU MORNING BEFORE                 
MOVING E WELL OFFSHORE FRIDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA                 
SATURDAY...FOLLOWED BY UNSETTLED WEATHER SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS A                 
SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL IMPULSES MOVES THROUGH.                                   
&&                                                                              
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...                                                 
UPR LOW CUTTING OFF NEAR THE NC COAST EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. SFC                 
LOW CONTS TO INTENSIFY E OF HATTERAS AND WILL MOVE SLOWLY N                     
THROUGH TONIGHT.                                                                
THROUGH EARLY EVENING NAM/GFS ARE FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH THE                    
TIMING OF PCPN... HOLDING OFF UNTIL LATER THIS AFTERNOON. LINEAR                
EXTRAPOLATION OF RADAR IMAGERY WOULD PUT LEADING EDGE OF THE                    
RAINFALL REACHING THE SOUTH SHORE OF LI AROUND 20Z. HOWEVER...88D               
ALSO SHOWING SOME VIRGA OVER THE AREA...WHICH IS CONSISTENT WITH                
ISENTROPIC ANALYSIS SHOWING COND PRES DEFICITS STAYING PRETTY HIGH              
THROUGH LATER THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE CRASHING BY EARLY EVENING                   
OBVIOUSLY COINCIDENT WITH THE ONSET OF PCPN. CURIOUSLY...THE RUC                
SHOWS A SIMILAR ISENTROPIC SETUP YET GENERATES LITTLE OR NO                     
PRECIPITATION THROUGH 00Z. HAVE BACKED OFF A BIT ON EARLY                       
AFTERNOON POPS WITH RAPID INCREASE IN POPS AS THE AFTERNOON GOES                
ON.                                                                             
NE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN AS SURFACE LOW INTENSIFIES                 
THROUGH THIS EVENING. SCA LOOKS FINE AS IS AND GOOD POTENTIAL FOR               
GALES TONIGHT.                                                                  
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...                                        
MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH STACKED LOW PRESSURE SLOWLY FILLING               
AND DRIFTING EAST FROM THE VIRGINIA CAPES THURS INTO THURS NIGHT.               
STACKED LOW OPENS UP AND BEGINS LIFTING NE TO NEAR CAPE COD BY                  
FRIDAY EVENING.                                                                 
AS THE STACKED LOW DRIFTS OFF TO THE ENE AND SLOWLY WEAKENS                     
THU/FRI...PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER EXPECTED. LOW LIKELY/HIGH CHANCE                
FOR LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE THROUGH THU...SLIDING EAST THU NIGHT INTO                
FRI. THIS WILL BE SUPPORTED BY LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE VIA                 
ONSHORE FLOW AND WEAK LIFT VIA LOW LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW AND WEAK                 
MID LEVEL SHORTWAVES PIVOTING AROUND THE CLOSED LOW.                            
GUSTY CONDITIONS...10 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH...THURSDAY              
MORNING...GRADUALLY WEAKENING THURS AFTERNOON INTO THURS NIGHT.                 
SUBTROPICAL AIRMASS AND CLOUD COVER WILL HAVE TEMPS ABOUT 5                     
DEGREES ABOVE SEASONABLE THURS (LOWER 60S)...AND 8 TO 10 DEGREES                
ABOVE SEASONABLE THURS NIGHT (50S).                                             
SHORTWAVE RIDGING BUILDS IN BY LATE FRIDAY AND COULD EVEN GET A                 
FEW GLIMPSES OF SUN ACROSS WESTERN SECTIONS. HIGHS WELL ABOVE                   
SEASONABLE...LOWER TO MID 60S.                                                  
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...                                    
PRECIP CHANCES DIMINISH FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE COASTAL LOW MOVES TO THE            
EAST. ON SATURDAY...A CLOSED H5 LOW IS PROGGED TO MOVE INTO THE                 
GREAT LAKES REGION WITH THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT SWEEPING THROUGH              
THE AREA LATE ON SATURDAY. THE UPPER LOW THEN LIFTS NORTHEAST INTO              
EASTERN CANADA SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH A SERIES OF SHORTWAVE IMPULSES            
MOVING THROUGH OR JUST NORTH OF THE REGION. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE               
BUILDS IN ON TUESDAY...WITH THE NEXT SURFACE SYSTEM APPROACHING LATE            
IN THE DAY.                                                                     
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...                                     
CONVERSION TO 30 HR TAF FORMAT COMPLETE. PLEASE SEE THE LINK BELOW              
FOR DETAILS.                                                                    
COASTAL LOW OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WORKS SLOWLY NORTHWARD THE NEXT          
12 HOURS BEFORE COMING TO A HALT. MVFR CEILINGS TO DEVELOP LATE                 
THIS AFT/EARLY THIS EVE AS DRY SUB CLOUD LAYER SLOWLY SATURATES.                
LIGHT RAIN WILL DEVELOP AT ABOUT THE SAME TIME WITH THE HEAVIEST                
RAIN FALLING BETWEEN 00Z AND 06Z...SPREADING IN OFF THE ATLANTIC FROM           
SE TO NW. LI AND NYC TERMINALS WILL BE ON THE EARLY END OF THE                  
DETERIORATING CONDITIONS WITH THE INLAND TERMINALS...KHPN AND KSWF              
LIKELY NOT SUB-VFR UNTIL AFTER 03Z.                                             
IN ADDITION...NE WINDS WILL RAMP UP TO 15 TO 20 KT...WITH GUSTS AS              
HIGH AS 30 KT AFTER 00Z. WITH THE TIGHTEST GRADIENT AND HEAVIEST                
RAINS BEING ALONG THE COAST...INLAND LOCATIONS WILL BE LOWER BY                 
ABOUT 5 KT.                                                                     
ON THU...DEEP LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE...WEAK LIFT AND A STRENGTHENING                
LOW-LEVEL INVERSION WILL RESULT IN WIDESPREAD IFR/MVFR CEILINGS                 
AND DRIZZLE. NE WINDS WILL HAVE DIMINISHED TO 10 TO 15 KT...WITH                
A FEW GUSTS TO 20 KT EARLY IN THE DAY.                                          
OUTLOOK FOR 18Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...                                      
SUB-VFR CEILINGS POSSIBLY INTO SAT WITH AN ONSHORE FLOW AND                     
SHALLOW LOW-LEVEL INVERSION IN PLACE. COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE SAT EVE              
FOLLOWED BY VFR CONDITIONS SUN AND MON.                                         
 ................................................                               
     TAF CODE CHANGED NOVEMBER 5TH AT 00Z...                                    
     PLEASE SEE...                                                              
     HTTP:/AVIATIONWEATHER.GOV/NOTICE/TAF30.PHP                                 
 ...................................................                            
&&                                                                              
.MARINE...                                                                      
NE WINDS INCREASE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY WITH APPROACH                
OF COASTAL LOW. SWELL FROM THE STORM HAS HELPED BUILD WAVES TO                  
SLIGHTLY NEAR 7 FEET AT 44025 ALREADY. HAVE MADE MINOR CHANGES TO               
WAVE GRIDS THROUGH THIS EVENING TO ACCOUNT FOR INCREASING SWELL.                
STRONGEST...GUSTIEST WINDS TO ARRIVE LATE AFTERNOON AND THIS                    
EVENING. SCA LOOKS FINE WHERE IT IS CURRENTLY. REMAINDER OF THE                 
MARINE FORECAST UNCHANGED.                                                      
LOOKS LIKE WE`LL REACH GALE FORCE GUSTS ON THE OCEAN WATERS                     
TONIGHT...BUT DON`T THINK IT WILL ADVANCE FARTHER NORTH. THE HARBOR             
WILL BE A CLOSE CALL...BUT THINK IT`LL FALL JUST SHY OF 35 KT. SO               
WILL GO WITH GALE WARNING TONIGHT ON THE OCEAN...AND SCA ELSEWHERE.             
PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE WATERS WEAKENS THROUGH THE DAY ON                    
THURSDAY...BUT WITH RESIDUAL SWELL...OCEAN WATERS WILL EASILY REMAIN            
SCA. SCA ELSEWHERE MAY HAVE TO BE EXTENDED INTO PART OF THURSDAY                
MORNING...BUT NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO DO THAT JUST YET.                        
SWELL FORECAST TO KEEP OCEAN WATERS AT SCA THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY              
NIGHT. APPROACHING COLD FRONT MAY BUMP SEAS OVER 5 FT ONCE AGAIN ON             
SATURDAY.                                                                       
&&                                                                              
.HYDROLOGY...                                                                   
LITTLE IF ANY RAINFALL IS EXPECTED THROUGH MID AFTERNOON. RAIN                  
EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THU                      
MORNING...WITH WITH MESOSCALE BAND OF 3/4 TO 1 INCH POSSIBLE                    
ACROSS LONG ISLAND...SE CONN...AND POSSIBLY AS FAR WEST AS NYC                  
METRO. FURTHER NORTH AND WEST...GENERALLY 1/4 TO 1/2 INCH RAIN.                 
FLOODING IS NOT A LARGE CONCERN...WITH ONLY SOME URBAN AND POOR                 
DRAINAGE PONDING DUE TO FALLEN LEAVES. LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN                  
INCH RAIN EXPECTED REST OF THURS INTO EARLY FRI...HIGHEST AMOUNTS               
EAST...IN LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE.                                               
&&                                                                              
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...                                                      
WITH PERSISTENT NE FLOW THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR COASTAL FLOODING                 
MAINLY WITH TONIGHT`S HIGH TIDE CYCLE. WINDS WON`T BE TOO MUCH OF               
FACTOR WITH THIS AFTERNOON`S CYCLE...SO NO CONCERNS THERE. THURSDAY             
AFTERNOON`S HIGH TIDE CYCLE LIKELY WON`T POSE ANY PROBLEMS EITHER               
AS WINDS ARE FORECAST TO SUBSIDE THROUGH THE DAY...BUT WILL                     
HOWEVER HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON TIDAL PILING.                                    
FOR TONIGHT AND THURSDAY AFTERNOON...WOULD NEED DEPARTURES                      
OF AROUND 2 1/2 FT FOR MINOR COASTAL FLOODING DURING TIMES OF HIGH              
TIDE. DEPARTURES OF 3.5-4 FT ARE NEEDED FOR MODERATE.                           
PERHAPS THE BIGGEST THREAT OF ANY FLOODING WILL BE ACROSS THE                   
WESTERN SOUND...WHERE DEPARTURES OF 2 1/2 TO 3 FT WILL BE NEEDED FOR            
MINOR FLOODING DURING TONIGHT`S AND THURSDAY AFTERNOON`S HIGH TIDE              
CYCLES. FORECAST GUIDANCE COMES UP SHORT BY ALMOST A FOOT                       
TONIGHT...AND BY EVEN MORE FOR THURSDAY. NO ADVISORIES THEREFORE                
NEEDED AT THIS TIME.                                                            
&&                                                                              
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
CT...NONE.                                                                      
NY...NONE.                                                                      
NJ...NONE.                                                                      
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM EST                
     THURSDAY FOR ANZ330-335-338-340-345.                                       
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ350-             
     353-355.                                                                   
     GALE WARNING FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM EST THURSDAY FOR               
     ANZ350-353-355.                                                            
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
AVIATION...DW                                                                   
</pre> ct                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE UPTON NY                                               
131 PM EST WED NOV 5 2008                                                       
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
LOW PRES DEEPENING EAST OF CAPE HATTERAS LATE THIS MORNING WILL                 
MOVE N TO A POSITION E OF THE DELMARVA EARLY THU MORNING BEFORE                 
MOVING E WELL OFFSHORE FRIDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA                 
SATURDAY...FOLLOWED BY UNSETTLED WEATHER SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS A                 
SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL IMPULSES MOVES THROUGH.                                   
&&                                                                              
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...                                                 
UPR LOW CUTTING OFF NEAR THE NC COAST LATE THIS MORNING. SFC LOW                
CONTS TO INTENSIFY E OF HATTERAS AND WILL MOVE SLOWLY N THROUGH                 
TONIGHT.                                                                        
THROUGH EARLY EVENING NAM/GFS ARE FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH THE                    
TIMING OF PCPN... HOLDING OFF UNTIL LATER THIS AFTERNOON. LINEAR                
EXTRAPOLATION OF RADAR IMAGERY WOULD PUT LEADING EDGE OF THE                    
RAINFALL REACHING THE SOUTH SHORE OF LI AROUND 20Z. HOWEVER...88D               
ALSO SHOWING SOME VIRGA OVER THE AREA...WHICH IS CONSISTENT WITH                
ISENTROPIC ANALYSIS SHOWING COND PRES DEFICITS STAYING PRETTY HIGH              
THROUGH LATER THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE CRASHING BY EARLY EVENING                   
OBVIOUSLY COINCIDENT WITH THE ONSET OF PCPN. CURIOUSLY...THE RUC                
SHOWS A SIMILAR ISENTROPIC SETUP YET GENERATES LITTLE OR NO                     
PRECIPITATION THROUGH 00Z. HAVE BACKED OFF A BIT ON EARLY                       
AFTERNOON POPS WITH RAPID INCREASE IN POPS AS THE AFTERNOON GOES                
ON.                                                                             
NE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN AS SURFACE LOW INTENSIFIES                 
THROUGH THIS EVENING. SCA LOOKS FINE AS IS AND GOOD POTENTIAL FOR               
GALES TONIGHT.                                                                  
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...                                        
MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH STACKED LOW PRESSURE SLOWLY FILLING               
AND DRIFTING EAST FROM THE VIRGINIA CAPES THURS INTO THURS NIGHT.               
STACKED LOW OPENS UP AND BEGINS LIFTING NE TO NEAR CAPE COD BY                  
FRIDAY EVENING.                                                                 
AS THE STACKED LOW DRIFTS OFF TO THE ENE AND SLOWLY WEAKENS                     
THU/FRI...PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER EXPECTED. LOW LIKELY/HIGH CHANCE                
FOR LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE THROUGH THU...SLIDING EAST THU NIGHT INTO                
FRI. THIS WILL BE SUPPORTED BY LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE VIA                 
ONSHORE FLOW AND WEAK LIFT VIA LOW LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW AND WEAK                 
MID LEVEL SHORTWAVES PIVOTING AROUND THE CLOSED LOW.                            
GUSTY CONDITIONS...10 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH...THURSDAY              
MORNING...GRADUALLY WEAKENING THURS AFTERNOON INTO THURS NIGHT.                 
SUBTROPICAL AIRMASS AND CLOUD COVER WILL HAVE TEMPS ABOUT 5                     
DEGREES ABOVE SEASONABLE THURS (LOWER 60S)...AND 8 TO 10 DEGREES                
ABOVE SEASONABLE THURS NIGHT (50S).                                             
SHORTWAVE RIDGING BUILDS IN BY LATE FRIDAY AND COULD EVEN GET A                 
FEW GLIMPSES OF SUN ACROSS WESTERN SECTIONS. HIGHS WELL ABOVE                   
SEASONABLE...LOWER TO MID 60S.                                                  
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...                                    
PRECIP CHANCES DIMINISH FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE COASTAL LOW MOVES TO THE            
EAST. ON SATURDAY...A CLOSED H5 LOW IS PROGGED TO MOVE INTO THE                 
GREAT LAKES REGION WITH THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT SWEEPING THROUGH              
THE AREA LATE ON SATURDAY. THE UPPER LOW THEN LIFTS NORTHEAST INTO              
EASTERN CANADA SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH A SERIES OF SHORTWAVE IMPULSES            
MOVING THROUGH OR JUST NORTH OF THE REGION. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE               
BUILDS IN ON TUESDAY...WITH THE NEXT SURFACE SYSTEM APPROACHING LATE            
IN THE DAY.                                                                     
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...                                     
CONVERSION TO 30 HR TAF FORMAT COMPLETE. PLEASE SEE THE LINK BELOW              
FOR DETAILS.                                                                    
COASTAL LOW OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WORKS SLOWLY NORTHWARD THE NEXT          
12 HOURS BEFORE COMING TO A HALT. MVFR CEILINGS TO DEVELOP LATE                 
THIS AFT/EARLY THIS EVE AS DRY SUB CLOUD LAYER SLOWLY SATURATES.                
LIGHT RAIN WILL DEVELOP AT ABOUT THE SAME TIME WITH THE HEAVIEST                
RAIN FALLING BETWEEN 00Z AND 06Z...SPREADING IN OFF THE ATLANTIC FROM           
SE TO NW. LI AND NYC TERMINALS WILL BE ON THE EARLY END OF THE                  
DETERIORATING CONDITIONS WITH THE INLAND TERMINALS...KHPN AND KSWF              
LIKELY NOT SUB-VFR UNTIL AFTER 03Z.                                             
IN ADDITION...NE WINDS WILL RAMP UP TO 15 TO 20 KT...WITH GUSTS AS              
HIGH AS 30 KT AFTER 00Z. WITH THE TIGHTEST GRADIENT AND HEAVIEST                
RAINS BEING ALONG THE COAST...INLAND LOCATIONS WILL BE LOWER BY                 
ABOUT 5 KT.                                                                     
ON THU...DEEP LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE...WEAK LIFT AND A STRENGTHENING                
LOW-LEVEL INVERSION WILL RESULT IN WIDESPREAD IFR/MVFR CEILINGS                 
AND DRIZZLE. NE WINDS WILL HAVE DIMINISHED TO 10 TO 15 KT...WITH                
A FEW GUSTS TO 20 KT EARLY IN THE DAY.                                          
OUTLOOK FOR 18Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...                                      
SUB-VFR CEILINGS POSSIBLY INTO SAT WITH AN ONSHORE FLOW AND                     
SHALLOW LOW-LEVEL INVERSION IN PLACE. COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE SAT EVE              
FOLLOWED BY VFR CONDITIONS SUN AND MON.                                         
 ................................................                               
     TAF CODE CHANGED NOVEMBER 5TH AT 00Z...                                    
     PLEASE SEE...                                                              
     HTTP:/AVIATIONWEATHER.GOV/NOTICE/TAF30.PHP                                 
 ...................................................                            
&&                                                                              
.MARINE...                                                                      
NE WINDS INCREASE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY WITH APPROACH                
OF COASTAL LOW. SWELL FROM THE STORM HAS HELPED BUILD WAVES TO                  
SLIGHTLY NEAR 7 FEET AT 44025 ALREADY. HAVE MADE MINOR CHANGES TO               
WAVE GRIDS THROUGH THIS EVENING TO ACCOUNT FOR INCREASING SWELL.                
STRONGEST...GUSTIEST WINDS TO ARRIVE LATE AFTERNOON AND THIS                    
EVENING. SCA LOOKS FINE WHERE IT IS CURRENTLY. REMAINDER OF THE                 
MARINE FORECAST UNCHANGED.                                                      
LOOKS LIKE WE`LL REACH GALE FORCE GUSTS ON THE OCEAN WATERS                     
TONIGHT...BUT DON`T THINK IT WILL ADVANCE FARTHER NORTH. THE HARBOR             
WILL BE A CLOSE CALL...BUT THINK IT`LL FALL JUST SHY OF 35 KT. SO               
WILL GO WITH GALE WARNING TONIGHT ON THE OCEAN...AND SCA ELSEWHERE.             
PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE WATERS WEAKENS THROUGH THE DAY ON                    
THURSDAY...BUT WITH RESIDUAL SWELL...OCEAN WATERS WILL EASILY REMAIN            
SCA. SCA ELSEWHERE MAY HAVE TO BE EXTENDED INTO PART OF THURSDAY                
MORNING...BUT NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO DO THAT JUST YET.                        
SWELL FORECAST TO KEEP OCEAN WATERS AT SCA THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY              
NIGHT. APPROACHING COLD FRONT MAY BUMP SEAS OVER 5 FT ONCE AGAIN ON             
SATURDAY.                                                                       
&&                                                                              
.HYDROLOGY...                                                                   
LITTLE IF ANY RAINFALL IS EXPECTED THROUGH MID AFTERNOON. RAIN                  
EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THU                      
MORNING...WITH WITH MESOSCALE BAND OF 3/4 TO 1 INCH POSSIBLE                    
ACROSS LONG ISLAND...SE CONN...AND POSSIBLY AS FAR WEST AS NYC                  
METRO. FURTHER NORTH AND WEST...GENERALLY 1/4 TO 1/2 INCH RAIN.                 
FLOODING IS NOT A LARGE CONCERN...WITH ONLY SOME URBAN AND POOR                 
DRAINAGE PONDING DUE TO FALLEN LEAVES. LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN                  
INCH RAIN EXPECTED REST OF THURS INTO EARLY FRI...HIGHEST AMOUNTS               
EAST...IN LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE.                                               
&&                                                                              
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...                                                      
WITH PERSISTENT NE FLOW THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR COASTAL FLOODING                 
MAINLY WITH TONIGHT`S HIGH TIDE CYCLE. WINDS WON`T BE TOO MUCH OF               
FACTOR WITH THIS AFTERNOON`S CYCLE...SO NO CONCERNS THERE. THURSDAY             
AFTERNOON`S HIGH TIDE CYCLE LIKELY WON`T POSE ANY PROBLEMS EITHER               
AS WINDS ARE FORECAST TO SUBSIDE THROUGH THE DAY...BUT WILL                     
HOWEVER HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON TIDAL PILING.                                    
FOR TONIGHT AND THURSDAY AFTERNOON...WOULD NEED DEPARTURES                      
OF AROUND 2 1/2 FT FOR MINOR COASTAL FLOODING DURING TIMES OF HIGH              
TIDE. DEPARTURES OF 3.5-4 FT ARE NEEDED FOR MODERATE.                           
PERHAPS THE BIGGEST THREAT OF ANY FLOODING WILL BE ACROSS THE                   
WESTERN SOUND...WHERE DEPARTURES OF 2 1/2 TO 3 FT WILL BE NEEDED FOR            
MINOR FLOODING DURING TONIGHT`S AND THURSDAY AFTERNOON`S HIGH TIDE              
CYCLES. FORECAST GUIDANCE COMES UP SHORT BY ALMOST A FOOT                       
TONIGHT...AND BY EVEN MORE FOR THURSDAY. NO ADVISORIES THEREFORE                
NEEDED AT THIS TIME.                                                            
&&                                                                              
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
CT...NONE.                                                                      
NY...NONE.                                                                      
NJ...NONE.                                                                      
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM EST                
     THURSDAY FOR ANZ330-335-338-340-345.                                       
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ350-             
     353-355.                                                                   
     GALE WARNING FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM EST THURSDAY FOR               
     ANZ350-353-355.                                                            
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
AVIATION...DW                                                                   
</pre> ct                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL                                         
810 PM EST TUE NOV 4 2008                                                       
.SYNOPSIS/DISCUSSION...                                                         
00Z WATER VAPOR AND H4 RUC ANALYSIS SHOWING AN INCREASINGLY                     
AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL PATTERN ACROSS NORTH AMERICA. MOST IMPRESSIVE             
FEATURE OF NOTE IS THE DEEP TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE WESTERN THIRD              
OF THE NATION. A STRONG PIECE OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY EVIDENT BY                    
PRONOUNCED DRYING ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY IS DIVING DOWN THE WESTERN             
PERIPHERY OF THE TROUGH ACROSS CALIFORNIA/NEVADA. THIS ENERGY WILL              
HELP TO FURTHER SHARPEN THE TROUGH TONIGHT AS IT ROUNDS THE BASE                
NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. FLOW THEN RIDES BACK NORTH INTO                   
SOUTH-CENTRAL CANADA OVER TOP OF MID-LEVEL RIDGING EXTENDING FROM               
EASTERN TEXAS TO THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES. NORTHERN STREAM FLOW THEN            
REMAINS TO THE NORTH CUTTING ACROSS EASTERN CANADA TO THE MARITIMES.            
UNDERNEATH THIS DOMINANT FLOW WE FIND WEAK TROUGHING HOLDING IN                 
PLACE ALONG THE SPINE OF THE APPALACHIANS TO THE SOUTHEAST COAST.               
AT THE SURFACE...FORECAST AREA REMAINS UNDER NORTHERLY FLOW                     
BETWEEN A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING FROM THE CENTRAL TENNESSEE VALLEY                
TO THE NORTH-CENTRAL GULF COAST AND LOW PRESSURE SOUTHEAST OF THE               
CAROLINA COAST. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTING DOWN FROM THE NORTH                
IS TRAPPED UNDER AN 800MB INVERSION AND HAS KEPT THE LOW CLOUDS                 
QUITE STUBBORN INTO THIS EVENING EAST OF A LINE FROM DOTHAN TO                  
PANAMA CITY. CURRENT TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 50S TO                 
LOWER 60S.                                                                      
THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUE THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS WILL BE THE                   
EXTENT TO WHICH THE LOW CLOUDS HOLD POSITION ACROSS THE EASTERN                 
HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA WHICH WILL HAVE AN EFFECT ON WEDNESDAY`S              
HIGH TEMPERATURES. ALTHOUGH IT MIGHT APPEAR THREATENING UNDER THE               
BLANKET OF CLOUDS OVER OUR EASTERN ZONES...POPS WILL REMAIN NEAR                
ZERO THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS THIS MOISTURE IS ONLY IN THE LOWEST                   
LEVELS WITH VERY DRY AIR DOMINATING THE COLUMN ABOVE 800MB. IN FACT             
DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS ABOVE 750MB ARE ON AVERAGE 40-50C.                         
CROSS SECTIONS FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE AREA SHOW WE WILL LIKELY            
NOT SEE MUCH CHANGE IN PATTERN OVERNIGHT. THOSE AREAS UNDER THE                 
STRATUS SHOULD REMAIN UNDER THE CLOUDS...ESPECIALLY WITH MID-LEVEL              
SHORTWAVE ENERGY PASSING OVERHEAD. WILL TAKE AN OPTIMISTIC VIEW FOR             
THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY IN TERMS OF FINALLY ERODING THE MOST STUBBORN              
CLOUDS OVER THE EAST. THROUGH THE DAY WILL SEE STACKED RIDGING BUILD            
OVER THE AREA AS THE SURFACE RIDGE MOVES OVERHEAD AND MID-LEVEL                 
HEIGHTS RISE IN THE WAKE OF TONIGHTS SHORTWAVE. WEST TO EAST                    
CROSS-SECTIONS STILL SHOW MOISTURE TRAPPED BELOW 850MB OVER THE                 
EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY...HOWEVER THE LAYER IS                    
CONSIDERABLY THINNER AND SHOULD ALLOW FOR DIURNAL HEATING/MIXING TO             
HAVE A MORE SIGNIFICANT INFLUENCE ON ERODING THE CLOUDS THAN IT DID             
THIS PAST AFTERNOON. MAY STILL SEE MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS FOR THE             
FIRST FEW HOURS OF THE MORNING...ESPECIALLY TO THE EAST OF A LINE               
FROM ALBANY TO TALLAHASSEE...BUT WILL ALLOW SKY GRIDS TO BECOME                 
PARTLY SUNNY AT LEAST OVER TO THE I-75 CORRIDOR BY AFTERNOON...IF               
NOT EARLIER.                                                                    
WITH THIS FORECAST PHILOSOPHY OF ALLOWING FOR AT LEAST PARTLY SUNNY             
SKIES DURING THE AFTERNOON...SEE LITTLE REASON TO MAKE A SIGNIFICANT            
CHANGE TO THE INHERITED TEMPERATURE GRIDS. 850MB TEMPS BETWEEN 10               
AND 12C WOULD FAVOR AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 70S.                
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
DIFFICULT TAF FORECAST TONIGHT. SATELLITE IMAGERY IS SHOWING THE                
STRATUS DECK CONTINUING TO STREAM SOUTHWARD. TIME HEIGHTS AND                   
SOUNDING DATA SHOW THE SHALLOW LAYER OF MOISTURE IN PLACE BELOW 850             
MB. WHILE THE MODELS DO SHOW THE CIGS DIMINISHING THROUGHOUT THE                
NIGHT...CONFIDENCE IN THIS OCCURRING IS NOT HIGH. AS THE LOW LEVEL              
INVERSION STRENGTHENS...THIS MAY TRAP THE STRATUS BELOW AND LEAVE               
CIGS IN PLACE THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT. THIS IS MOST LIKELY TO OCCUR AT             
VLD WHERE IFR CONDITIONS ARE INDICATED. MVFR CONDITIONS LOOK GOOD               
THROUGH THE NIGHT AT ABY AND TLH. WHERE IT IS ESSENTIALLY CLEAR NOW             
AT DHN AND PFN...EXPECT NO RESTRICTIONS THERE THROUGH THE NIGHT.                
CLOUD COVER SHOULD CLEAR OUT TOMORROW...UNLIKE TODAY...BY AFTERNOON             
AS HEATING TAKES PLACE. SHOULD FINALLY SEE VFR CONDITIONS ALL SITES             
BY 15Z WITH ALL CIGS GONE BY 19Z.                                               
&&                                                                              
.MARINE...                                                                      
NORTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES OVER THE MARINE ZONES BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE            
TO THE WEST AND A STRENGTHENING LOW OFF THE CAROLINA COAST. THIS                
FLOW WILL KEEP A STEADY 10 TO 15 KNOTS OF WINDS GOING INTO THE EARLY            
MORNING HOURS. THROUGH WEDNESDAY WILL SLOWLY SEE THE SURFACE RIDGE              
BUILD EASTWARD. THIS RIDGE BUILDING EAST SHOULD ALLOW THE WINDS TO              
BEGIN TO DIMINISH ACROSS THE WESTERN LEGS LATE TONIGHT INTO                     
WEDNESDAY MORNING AND BEGIN TO DIMINISH ACROSS THE EASTERN LEGS BY              
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. SURFACE RIDGE AXIS BUILD JUST TO THE NORTH OF              
THE FORECAST WATERS LATER WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. WITH THE RIDGE IN            
CLOSE PROXIMITY WINDS WILL REMAIN BELOW HEADLINE CRITERIA AND SLOWLY            
TURN TO THE NORTHEAST AND EAST WITH TIME.                                       
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
TALLAHASSEE  50  78  48  80  49 /   0   0   0   0   0                           
PANAMA CITY  54  77  55  79  56 /   0   0   0   0   5                           
DOTHAN       49  77  50  80  51 /   0   0   0   0   5                           
ALBANY       50  77  48  80  50 /   0   0   0   0   5                           
VALDOSTA     50  76  49  79  49 /   0   0   0   0   0                           
CROSS CITY   51  77  49  80  49 /   0   0   0   0   0                           
&&                                                                              
.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
AL...NONE.                                                                      
GA...NONE.                                                                      
FL...NONE.                                                                      
GM...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
AVIATION...GODSEY                                                               
SYNOPSIS/DISCUSSION/MARINE...MROCZKA                                            
</pre> fl                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC                                          
1239 AM EST TUE NOV 4 2008                                                      
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
STRONG HIGH PRES CENTERED WELL TO THE N AND A TROUGH OF LOW                     
PRES OFF THE COAST OF THE SOUTHEAST UNTIED STATES WILL REMAIN IN                
PLACE THROUGH TUE. A COMPLEX LOW PRES SYSTEM WILL PULL AWAY FROM                
THE COAST ON WED WITH HIGH PRES BUILDING IN FOR THU AND FRI. A                  
COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA LATE FRI NIGHT AND ON SAT BEFORE                 
HIGH PRES BUILDS BACK IN FOR SUN AND MON.                                       
&&                                                                              
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...                                         
PER RUC AND MSAS ANALYSIS...THE CAROLINA COAST IS BEING SUBJECTED               
TO A WEDGE OF SFC HIGH PRES WELL INLAND...A COASTAL TROF WITH THE               
HEAD OF ITS AXIS OFF THE COAST OF KMYR-KILM AND AN UPPER LEVEL                  
TROF CENTERED OVER WRN NC. THE TROUGH HAS WAVERED IN STRENGTH ALL               
EVENING BUT HAMPERING ITS POTENTIAL FOR BUILDING ANY FURTHER HAS                
BEEN SST/S IN THE 60S. IN ADDITION...WV IMAGERY IS CONFIRMING A                 
NARROW SWATH OF DRIER AIR BECOMING EMBEDDED WITHIN THE WRN                      
PERIPHERY OF THE TROUGH WHICH IS NOT ONLY PREVENTING PRECIP FROM                
DEVELOPING BUT HAS OPENED A FEW HOLES IN THE BROKEN-OVERCAST                    
SKIES. THE LATEST NAM HAS GRASPED THIS CONCEPT SO HAVE USED ITS                 
IDEA TO DEVELOP THE POP SCHEME FOR THE REST OF THE OVERNIGHT.                   
THUS...HAVE BECOME MORE PESSIMISTIC IN TERMS OF POPS AND HAVE                   
NOTHING HIGHER THAN HI CHC POPS...AND EVEN THAT IS FOR A BRIEF                  
PERIOD AFTER MIDNIGHT WHEN THE TROUGH SHIFTS W BEFORE LIFTING OUT               
AND THE HIGHEST POTENTIAL FOR PRECIP OCCURS. EVEN SO...THE BEST                 
CHCS FOR PRECIP WILL BE IN SE SC RATHER THAN SE GA...AND IT                     
APPEARS THAT OUTSIDE OF PATCHY DRIZZLE THAT MUCH OF SE GA WILL                  
REMAIN FREE FROM ORGANIZED RAIN SHOWERS SO HAVE BROUGHT POPS DOWN               
TO SLGT CHC.                                                                    
REGARDLESS OF PRECIP FORMATION...LOW CLOUDS WILL REMAIN PREVALENT               
THROUGHOUT THE OVERNIGHT HOURS TO PREVENT IDEAL RADIATIONAL                     
COOLING CONDITIONS. HOWEVER...THE OCCASIONAL BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS               
COMBINED WITH GOOD NORTHERLY FLOW WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO DROP TO THE               
MID-UPR 50S AWAY FROM THE COAST SO HAVE MAINTAINED THOSE                        
PREVIOUSLY ADVERTISED LOWS.                                                     
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...                       
A STRONG COASTAL TROUGH WILL PERSIST OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST                    
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...WHILE MID AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING                     
CONTINUES EAST OF THE APPALACHIANS AND OVER THE CAROLINAS.                      
MODEL AGREEMENT IS RATHER POOR LEADING TO A LOW CONFIDENCE                      
FORECAST. IT IS DIFFICULT TO FORECAST ANY SIGNIFICANT CHANCE OF                 
PRECIPITATION TUESDAY GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY...BUT THE BEST                      
CHANCES OF SHOWER ACTIVITY APPEAR TO BE ACROSS THE TRI-COUNTY AREA              
AND OTHER PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA WEST OF THE I-95                 
CORRIDOR. IT APPEARS THAT THESE AREAS COULD EXPERIENCE LARGE SCALE              
ASCENT DUE TO THE PROXIMITY OF THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL                          
TROUGHING...AND IT ALSO LOOKS LIKE THE DEEPEST MOISTURE WILL BE IN              
PLACE ACROSS THESE AREAS AS WELL. THEREFORE...A LOW CHANCE OF                   
SHOWERS HAS BEEN FORECAST...WITH ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT                  
RAIN OR DRIZZLE ELSEWHERE AS THERE IS NO STRONG ISENTROPIC LIFT OR              
FORCING TO SPEAK OF.                                                            
CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION WILL TAPER OFF FURTHER TUESDAY                         
NIGHT...WITH ONLY A LOW CHANCE FORECAST ACROSS THE TRI-COUNTY                   
AREA WHICH WILL BE NEAR THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTER.                     
FARTHER SOUTH...PATCHY DRIZZLE IS POSSIBLE BUT THE CHANCE OF                    
MEASURABLE RAINFALL IS VERY LOW.                                                
THE WEDGE PATTERN WILL KEEP THE MOIST LOW LEVEL NORTHERLY FLOW IN               
PLACE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. LOW CLOUDS SHOULD                
REMAIN TRAPPED BENEATH AN INVERSION...WITH NO SIGNIFICANT CLEARING              
EXPECTED.                                                                       
TEMPERATURES WILL BE STRONGLY INFLUENCED BY THE NORTHERLY FLOW AND              
EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER IN PLACE. HIGHS TUESDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE               
LOWER 60S TOWARD THE MIDLANDS OF SOUTH CAROLINA...TO THE MID TO                 
UPPER 60S TOWARD THE COAST AND THE ALTAMAHA RIVER. LOWS TUESDAY                 
NIGHT SHOULD BE IN THE 50S.                                                     
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...                                  
BY WEDNESDAY MORNING AN UPPER TROUGH WILL BE DIGGING INTO THE                   
WESTERN UNITED STATES WHICH SHOULD BUILD AN UPPER RIDGE TOWARD THE              
EASTERN UNITED STATES. AS A MORE PROGRESSIVE PATTERN EVOLVES OVER               
THE REGION THE STUBBORN UPPER LOW SHOULD FINALLY BEGIN TO LIFT OUT              
TO THE NORTHEAST OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST. A RESIDUAL WEDGE                   
PATTERN AT THE SURFACE WILL PROBABLY LINGER EXTENSIVE LOW CLOUDS                
OVER THE AREA AND HOLD HIGH TEMPS DOWN QUITE A BIT ON WED. PRECIP               
CHANCES APPEAR PRETTY LOW EXCEPT FOR SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS OR                  
PATCHY DRIZZLE OVER SOUTHERN SC WHERE A BIT OF RESIDUAL WRAP-AROUND             
ISENTROPIC ASCENT EXISTS. HAVE PARED POPS BACK TO SLIGHT CHANCE ON              
WEDNESDAY WITH DRY CONDITIONS FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY             
NIGHT.                                                                          
SHORTWAVE RIDGE WILL BUILD EAST THURSDAY AND FRIDAY PROVIDING A MUCH            
WARMER AIRMASS WHILE MID-LEVEL SUBSIDENCE WILL ALLOW FOR MOSTLY                 
SUNNY TO SUNNY SKIES. AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT FRI...SOME             
COMPRESSIONAL WARMING IS ALSO POSSIBLE. HIGHS SHOULD PUSH WELL INTO             
THE 70S THU AND FRI WHILE THERE IS STILL AN OUTSIDE SHOT AT 80                  
DEGREES ON FRI ASSUMING CLOUDS DO NOT ENCROACH EARLIER THAN                     
CURRENTLY PROGGED.                                                              
THE GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT CONCERNING THE COLD                 
FRONT LATE IN THE WEEK. A FROPA LATE FRI NIGHT THROUGH MIDDAY SAT IS            
THE PREFERRED TIME WINDOW. WILL MAINTAIN SOLID CHANCE POPS OVER MOST            
AREAS WITH THIS FEATURE WITH PRECIP AND CLOUDS CLEARING FROM THE                
WEST LATE SAT. A ZONAL PATTERN WILL DEVELOP SUN AND MON WITH HIGH               
PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE. TEMPS WILL BE NEAR NORMAL WITH LOW CHANCES             
FOR PRECIPITATION.                                                              
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...                                     
COASTAL CORRIDOR FROM KCHS TO KSAV WILL BE ON THE BACK SIDE OF                  
COASTAL LOW PATTERN DOMINATED BY PERSISTENT CLOUDS IN THE MVFR TO               
IFR RANGE UNDER A STUBBORN INVERSION AND A N WIND REGIME. WE BRING              
BOTH AIRPORTS INTO IFR CIG CATEGORIES OVERNIGHT...THEN LIFT CIGS                
TO MVFR BY THIS AFTERNOON. MVFR CIGS EXPECTED 00Z-06Z/05 AT BOTH                
SITES. THE ONLY PRECIPITATION MENTIONED WAS SOME DRIZZLE AT KCHS                
THROUGH MID MORNING. VSBYS A BIT TRICKIER BUT WE CONTINUED SOME                 
MVFR MENTIONS THROUGH ABOUT 15Z/04.                                             
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...MVFR/IFR OR LOWER CIGS AND MVFR/IFR                 
VSBYS ARE EXPECTED TUE NIGHT THROUGH WED MORNING. VFR CONDITIONS                
WILL RETURN WED NIGHT THROUGH FRI. MVFR CIGS/VSBYS POSSIBLE                     
FRI NIGHT AND SAT WITH A COLD FRONT.                                            
&&                                                                              
.MARINE...                                                                      
DESPITE THE PRESENCE OF A COASTAL TROUGH OFF THE SC/NC SHORES...                
COOLER SST/S ARE PREVENTING GOOD ENOUGH MIXING AND WILL NOT QUITE               
ALLOW 40KT 925MB WINDS TO BLEND TO THE SFC. IN ADDITION...SFC                   
ANALYSIS IS NOT SHOWING THE IDEAL PRES GRAD THAT THE MODELS ARE                 
SHOWING SO HAVE SLIGHTLY NUDGED DOWN WIND SPEEDS THROUGH THE REST               
OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. IN MONITORING WIND SPEEDS THROUGH THE                   
EVENING...NONE OF THE NEARBY BUOYS HAVE SHOWN SUSTAINED WIND                    
SPEEDS IN EXCESS OF 25 KT NOR GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 30 KT...AND THERE              
IS NO REASON TO SUSPECT ENOUGH OVERNIGHT SURGING WILL PRODUCE SUCH              
SPEEDS SO HAVE OPTED TO BRING DOWN ALL GALE WARNINGS TO HIGH-END                
SMALL CRAFT ADVY/S. WIND SPEEDS CAPPED AT 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 30                
KT FROM THE NE WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...AND THIS              
WILL CONTRIBUTE TO THE CONTINUED ELEVATED SEAS. THE STRONG                      
NORTH/NORTHEAST FLOW WILL KEEP SEAS AT DANGEROUS LEVELS ACROSS                  
PARTS OF THE WATERS...AS HIGH AS 9 OR 10 FT 20 NM OFF THE SOUTH                 
CAROLINA COAST AND 10 OR 11 FT 60 NM OFF THE GEORGIA COAST.                     
MODELS SHOW THAT WINDS COULD DECREASE CONSIDERABLY ACROSS PARTS OF              
THE COASTAL WATERS ON TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT...BUT GIVEN THE POOR                
MODEL CONSISTENCY WITH REGARDS TO PLACEMENT/STRENGTH OF THE TROUGH              
AND ANY SURFACE LOW WHICH DEVELOPS ALONG IT...HAVE KEPT WINDS/SEAS              
ELEVATED AT SOLID SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS THROUGH TUESDAY                   
NIGHT.                                                                          
CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY AS THE               
TIGHTEST PRESSURE GRADIENT SHIFTS NORTHEAST WITH THE SURFACE LOW.               
WINDS WILL BACK TO AN OFFSHORE FETCH DURING THE DAY WHICH WILL                  
SIGNIFICANTLY REDUCE SEAS IN THE NEARSHORE WATERS. SEAS OVER THE                
OUTER WATERS WILL REMAIN AT OR ABOVE 6 FT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING              
BEFORE FINALLY DROPPING BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA THURSDAY AFTERNOON.             
QUIET CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED FOR THE REST OF THURSDAY INTO                  
FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT. A                   
SOUTHWESTERLY SURGE WILL PROBABLY OCCUR FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY               
WITH LOW-LEVEL JETTING AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.                      
&&                                                                              
.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
GA...NONE.                                                                      
SC...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR SCZ045.                  
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 12 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR AMZ352-354.         
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR AMZ350.                  
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THURSDAY FOR AMZ374.                  
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR AMZ330.                  
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</pre> ga                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS                                            
448 PM MST WED NOV 5 2008                                                       
.DISCUSSION...THE 20Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A TROUGH EXTENDING FROM            
THE TEXAS PANHANDLE TO EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY                
SHOWING THE UPPER LOW OVER CENTRAL COLORADO. KGLD RADAR DETECTING               
SOME LIGHT SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES MAINLY OVER THE NORTHWEST AND FAR               
SOUTHERN ZONES.                                                                 
THE UPPER LOW IS PROGGED TO MOVE NORTHEAST INTO CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA            
TONIGHT. NORTHWEST FLOW WILL TAKE OVER ON THURSDAY AND CONTINUE                 
THROUGH SATURDAY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EASTWARD INTO THE            
CENTRAL PLAINS BEHIND THE EXITING TROUGH.                                       
THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUES ARE WIND ON THURSDAY AND WHETHER ANY POPS              
WILL BE NEEDED FOR TONIGHT/THURSDAY.                                            
THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS UP THURSDAY BEHIND THE                   
EXITING LOW PRESSURE. LATEST GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT WINDS WILL                 
SATISFY CRITERIA FOR A WIND ADVISORY ON THURSDAY OVER THE CWA. THE              
NAM AND GFS FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE SUSTAINED WINDS OF 30+ KTS              
WITH POTENTIAL GUSTS TO 45KTS OVER MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE               
RUC ALSO SUPPORTS THE WIND ADVISORY WITH SUSTAINED WINDS OF GREATER             
THAN 30KTS AND GUSTS GREATER THAN 40 KTS. BASED ON THIS HAVE ALREADY            
ISSUED A WIND ADVISORY FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA FOR                         
THURSDAY...SEE DETAILS BELOW.                                                   
FOR POPS...DYNAMICS MOVE TO THE SOUTHEAST AND NORTH THIS EVENING AND            
THEN TOWARD 12Z THURSDAY WRAPAROUND DYNAMICS START TO AFFECT THE                
NORTHEAST ZONES. THIS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH ABOUT 18Z THURSDAY.                 
CONSEQUENTLY HAVE RELIED ON SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR THESE BASED UPON             
MARGINAL NATURE OF THIS SYSTEM SO FAR. HOWEVER EXPECT WRAPAROUND TO             
HAVE BETTER MOISTURE THURSDAY MORNING AND FOR THAT REASON HAVE                  
INCREASE POPS TO CHANCE OVER THE MCK AREA. FORECAST SOUNDINGS                   
INDICATE PRECIPITATION EAST OF COLORADO SHOULD BE LIQUID BUT CANNOT             
RULE OUT SOME SNOW MIXING IN OVER YUMA COUNTY COLORADO. SOUNDINGS               
ARE NOT ALL THAT SATURATED AT LOWER LEVELS SO PRECIPITATION MAY HAVE            
DIFFICULTY REACHING THE SURFACE. SUBSIDENCE TAKES OVER ACROSS THE               
ENTIRE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUES THROUGH SATURDAY.             
850MB TEMPERATURES WILL KEEP MAX TEMPERATURES COOL IN THE UPPER 40S ON          
THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL START MODERATING ON FRIDAY WITH ABOVE               
NORMAL READINGS NEAR 60 ON SATURDAY. MIN TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO            
THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.                      
IN THE EXTENDED...DIFFERENCES STILL REMAIN BETWEEN THE GFS AND THE              
ECMWF. THE GFS IS MUCH WEAKER WITH THE SYSTEM THAN THE ECMWF. THE               
ECMWF DIVES SOUTH AND THEN COMES BACK NORTH ACROSS THE FORECAST                 
AREA. DUE TO THE LACK OF AGREEMENT WILL CONTINUE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS             
FOR A RAIN/SNOW MIX FOR SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT ESPECIALLY            
SINCE THE GFS HAS WEAK DYNAMICS. 850 TEMPERATURES FALL BELOW ZERO ON            
MONDAY AND STAY COLD THROUGH WEDNESDAY. MAX TEMPERATURES START IN               
THE LOWER 50S ON SUNDAY AND THEN COOL INTO THE MID 40S MONDAY                   
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. MIN TEMPERATURES SHOULD FALL INTO THE MID/UPPER              
20S.                                                                            
FS                                                                              
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
432 PM MST WED NOV 5 2008                                                       
FOR THE 00Z TAF CYCLE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN AT                
KGLD..ALTHOUGH CEILINGS WILL DROP TO NEAR MVFR CONDITIONS BY 12Z.               
FOR KMCK...MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AFTER 09Z. OF GREATEST CONCERN          
WILL BE THE WINDS TOMORROW. BETWEEN 09Z AND 12Z...EXPECT WINDS                  
FROM THE NORTHWEST TO INCREASE TO THE 20G30KT RANGE. BY                         
15Z...WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE YET AGAIN TO THE 30G45KT                   
RANGE AND LAST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD. LIGHT RAIN              
SHOWERS MAY OCCASIONALLY MIX WITH LIGHT SNOW...BUT DO NOT EXPECT                
ANY SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS.                                                  
BLM                                                                             
&&                                                                              
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
KS...WIND ADVISORY FROM 5 AM MST /6 AM CST/ TO 7 PM MST /8 PM CST/              
     THURSDAY FOR KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-042.                           
NE...WIND ADVISORY FROM 5 AM MST /6 AM CST/ TO 7 PM MST /8 PM CST/              
     THURSDAY FOR NEZ079>081.                                                   
CO...WIND ADVISORY FROM 5 AM TO 7 PM MST THURSDAY FOR COZ090>092.               
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</pre> ks                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS                                          
341 PM CST TUE NOV 4 2008                                                       
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
DAYS 1-2...                                                                     
THE MOST SIGNIFICANT CHALLENGE WILL BE HOW TO HANDLE MULTIPLE                   
STRONG WIND EVENTS WITH HEADLINES. THE TIMING OF THE COLD FRONT                 
WEDNESDAY WILL BE A CHALLENGE WITH TEMPS AS WELL AS THE ADDITIONAL              
SURGE OF VERY STRONG WINDS. PRECIPITATION WILL BE ANOTHER                       
CHALLENGE ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN PORTION OF DDC FA.                            
12Z UA ANALYSIS SHOWED LARGE DEGREE OF H5 HEIGHT FALLS ACROSS THE               
WEST WITH 90 TO 100 METER FALLS AT SEVERAL RAOB SITES. H25 JET                  
CORE OF 150 TO 170 KNOTS WAS ANALYZED OFF THE COAST OF OREGON                   
NOSING SOUTHEAST INTO CALIFORNIA. BY EARLY AFTERNOON...THE NOSE OF              
THIS JET WAS ENTERING CENTRAL CALIFORNIA WITH LEFT-EXIT REGION                  
EXPANDING ACROSS EASTERN NEVADA AND UTAH. LEE TROUGH AT THE                     
SURFACE WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN INTO A LOW TONIGHT WITH SFC LOW                 
CENTER EXPECTED TO BE ACROSS SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA AT AROUND 994 MB.               
TONIGHT/WEDNESDAY...MID TO UPPER 50S DEWPOINTS WILL CONTINUE TO SURGE           
NORTHWARD THROUGH CENTRAL KANSAS. A NARROW CORRIDOR OF SCATTERED                
TO PERHAPS BROKEN STRATUS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP AFTER ~ 04Z PER                   
NAM12 H9 TO H8 RH PROGS. NOT TOO LONG AFTER SUNRISE, WINDS WILL                 
BEGIN TO INCREASE ONCE AGAIN OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST. 25 TO 35 MPH                 
SUSTAINED WILL LIKELY DEVELOP AS A DEEP LAYER OF VERY STRONG WINDS              
FROM THE SOUTHWEST DEVELOPS ON THE APPROACH OF THE MID AND UPPER                
JET CORE. AS THE SURFACE LOW LIFTS NORTHWARD INTO NORTHERN                      
NEBRASKA AND DEEPENS TO ~ 990 MB, COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP SOUTHEAST               
RAPIDLY ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS. THE FRONT SHOULD FIRST ENTER THE                 
FAR NORTHWEST DDC FA ZONES BY 18Z. GIVEN THE ANTICIPATED                        
ISALLOBARIC WIND COMPONENT WITH RAPID PRESSURE RISES BEHIND THE                 
FRONT...SURFACE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO HOWL IN EXCESS OF 35 MPH                  
PERHAPS AT TIMES. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL ONLY BE FOR AN HOUR OR               
TWO IMMEDIATELY AFTER THE FRONT DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY                 
EVENING HOURS. WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR SHOWERS DEVELOPING IN THE                 
STRONGEST H7 COLD FRONTOGENETIC REGION...AND GIVEN SUCH COLD AIR                
ALOFT...THE CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS COULD BRING EVEN STRONGER WINDS TO              
THE SURFACE IN GUSTS WHERE PRECIPITATION DOES OCCUR.                            
WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY...WINDS WILL ABATE OVERNIGHT WEDNESDAY                 
NIGHT. DURING THE NIGHT...THE LOW WILL OCCLUDE RAPIDLY TO THE EAST              
OF THE BLACK HILLS. SURFACE LOW WILL LIKELY WALLOW ABOUT THE                    
EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA/NEBRASKA BORDER WITH A VERY STRONG PRESSURE                
GRADIENT EXTENDING SOUTH INTO WESTERN KANSAS. MODEL FIELDS SUGGEST              
NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND H85 FROM 40 TO 50 KNOTS THURSDAY...MAINLY                
NORTHERN DDC FA WHICH SUPPORTS VERY STRONG WINDS AT THE SURFACE                 
ONCE AGAIN. EXTENT OF CLOUD COVER IS IN QUESTION AND WILL DEPEND                
ON HOW FAR SOUTH THE "COMMA HEAD" OF THE INTENSE CYCLONE REACHES.               
CURRENT THINKING IS THAT MUCH OF THE DDC FA SHOULD SEE MOSTLY                   
SUNNY SKIES THURSDAY WITH STRONG WINDS.  -UMSCHEID                              
DAYS 3-7...                                                                     
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT AT THE START OF THE            
PERIOD, TAKING THE UPPER TROUGH NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST            
BY THURSDAY.  THURSDAY SHOULD HAVE FAIRLY COOL TEMPS BEHIND THE                 
FRONT, WITH BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF KEEPING 850MB READINGS DOWN IN               
THE SINGLE DIGITS.  MADE ONLY MINOR TWEAKS TO THE LOWER THAN AVERAGE            
HIGHS WE HAVE GOING.  THE PLAINS WILL SEE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT              
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES EASTWARD.  TEMPS              
SHOULD SLOWLY RECOVER SOMEWHAT TO LEVELS CLOSER TO CLIMATOLOGY.  BY             
SUNDAY AND MONDAY, MODELS START SHOWING SOME SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES            
WITH THE NEXT SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH.  THE GFS BRINGS A DECENT                
SHORTWAVE OUT INTO THE ROCKIES BY SUNDAY, AND AS THE MOST                       
PROGRESSIVE HAS IT PAST THE PLAINS BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.  THE ECMWF ON            
THE OTHER HAND, CUTS OFF THE SHORTWAVE OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS              
AND THEN SLOWLY BRINGS IT OUT ON MONDAY.  THE CANADIAN HAS A                    
STRONGER LONGWAVE PATTERN WITH A SHORTWAVE COMING DOWN THE BACKSIDE             
OF A LARGE TROUGH IN THE EAST.  THE CANADIAN AND NCEP ENSEMBLES                 
MEANS HAVE SIGNS OF A SHORTWAVE COMING THROUGH SOMETIME DURING THAT             
PERIOD, ALTHOUGH SPREAD IS FAIRLY HIGH.  THUS, WILL KEEP THE LOW                
POPS AND COOL DOWN THAT WE HAVE GOING IN THE DAYS 6-7 GRIDS.                    
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL PICK UP AS THE SFC TROUGH TO OUR WEST DEEPENS,             
APPROACHING 25-30 KTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS THIS AFTERNOON.   RUC HAS               
SOME STRATUS/FOG FORMATION NEAR GCK EARLY THIS MORNING.  SREF ONLY              
HAS LOW PROBABILITIES AND THINK THAT WINDS WILL KEEP US FROM GETTING            
DOWN INTO THE LOWEST CATEGORIES, BUT WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON                
IT.  OTHERWISE, CIRRUS WILL BE THE MAIN CLOUDS AND VFR CONDITIONS               
WILL PREVAIL.                                                                   
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
DDC  55  71  36  54 /  10  10  10   0                                           
GCK  53  66  34  53 /  10  20  20   0                                           
EHA  51  63  33  55 /   0  20  20   0                                           
LBL  53  68  36  57 /  10  10  10   0                                           
HYS  55  72  37  51 /  10  20  20   0                                           
P28  59  75  41  57 /  10  10   0   0                                           
&&                                                                              
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR KSZ030-031-045-                 
046-064>066-077>081-086>090.                                                    
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
FN25/33/33                                                                      
</pre> ks                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS                                            
423 AM MST TUE NOV 4 2008                                                       
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
247 AM MST TUE NOV 4 2008                                                       
FORECAST CONCERNS ARE THE BREEZY WINDS THAT DEVELOP IN THE                      
SOUTHEAST PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND THE                   
PRECIPITATION RELATED TO THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT MOVES ACROSS              
THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY.                                                        
SHORT TERM MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE POSITION                
AND DEPTH OF THE UPPER LOW CENTER MOVING OUT OF THE CENTRAL                     
ROCKIES INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS LATE WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY                   
NIGHT. MODELS ALSO REMAIN CONSISTENT AT THE SURFACE THROUGH 18Z                 
WEDNESDAY BEFORE THE SOLUTIONS BEGIN TO DIVERGE SOMEWHAT AS THE                 
GFS IS INITIALLY MORE PROGRESSIVE LIFTING THE LOW CENTER TOWARDS                
THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION THAN THE NAM ON THURSDAY BEFORE                  
MODELS REGAIN CONSISTENCY BY FRIDAY AS THE LOW CENTERS ARE BACK IN              
AGREEMENT IN PLACEMENT AND DEPTH OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES.                  
THIS IS LIKELY DUE TO THE SLIGHT DIFFERENCES IN HOW EACH ONE IS                 
HANDLING THE SMALLER SHORT WAVES ROTATING THROUGH THE BASE OF THE               
TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS TOWARDS THE                    
CENTRAL PLAINS ON THURSDAY. THE RESULT IN EITHER SITUATION REMAINS              
VERY SIMILAR WITH ONLY MINOR DIFFERENCES SHOWING UP IN THE                      
RESULTING WX AND QPF FIELDS.                                                    
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS                      
INCREASES TODAY AS THE SURFACE TROUGH DEEPENS OVER THE TRI-STATE                
REGION. EXPECT SOUTHERLY WINDS TO INCREASE MAINLY OVER CENTRAL                  
KANSAS AND DO NOT EXPECT WINDS TO REACH ADVISORY CRITERIA TODAY                 
OVER MY FORECAST AREA.                                                          
EXPECT THE NEXT COLD FRONT TO BEGIN PUSHING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE                
FORECAST AREA BETWEEN 09Z AND 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING. EXPECT WINDS               
TO ALSO INCREASE BEHIND THE FRONT AS THEY TURN TO THE                           
NORTHWEST...BUT AGAIN...AM KEEPING SPEEDS TO JUST UNDER ADVISORY                
CRITERIA AND FEEL THE STRONGEST WINDS RIGHT BEHIND THE FRONT WILL               
BE TRANSITORY IN NATURE. HAVE ALSO KEPT THE BEST CHANCE OF LIGHT                
RAIN IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE FRONT DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY                
AS A COUPLE OF VORT CENTERS LIFT OUT ACROSS MAINLY THE SOUTHEAST                
PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA AS THE FRONT IS TRANSITIONING THE                  
AREA. FEEL ONCE THE FRONT IS THROUGH THE REGION THE CHANCE OF                   
PRECIPITATION DIMINISHES RAPIDLY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA EXCEPT                
FOR THE NORTHERN SECTIONS WHERE ADDITIONAL SHORT WAVES ROTATE                   
ACROSS THE CWA. HAVE KEPT PRECIPITATION AS MOSTLY LIQUID WITH A                 
BRIEF MIX AND SMALL AREA OF CHANGE OVER TO SNOW AS TEMPERATURES                 
DROP BELOW FREEZING IN THE NORTHWEST CORNER OF THE FORECAST AREA                
EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.                                                         
FEEL THE COOLEST DAY WILL BE ON THURSDAY. FRIDAY THE UPPER FLOW                 
TURNS NORTHWESTERLY OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS AS THE UPPER LOW               
MOVES INTO THE NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES REGION               
AND A SHORT WAVE RIDGE MOVES EAST OF THE ROCKIES BY SUNDAY AHEAD                
OF THE NEXT WEAKER UPPER TROUGH. TEMPERATURES SHOULD WARM                       
GRADUALLY INTO THE WEEKEND...BUT REMAIN SOMEWHAT NEAR NORMAL.                   
LOCKHART                                                                        
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
423 AM MST MON NOV 3 2008                                                       
FOR THE 12Z TAF CYCLE... POSSIBILITY OF LOW STRATUS AND/OR LIGHT FOG            
DEVELOPING AROUND SUNRISE IS THE MAIN AVIATION PROBLEM. STRATUS                 
FORECAST BY THE NAM AND RUC HAS YET TO MATERIALIZE...THOUGH HAVE                
SEEN SOME PATCHY FOG RIGHT ALONG THE STALLED OUT FRONTAL BOUNDARY               
WHICH LIES ROUGHLY ALONG A LEOTI TO NORTON LINE. WILL CONTINUE TO               
MONITOR SATELLITE PRODUCTS. OTHERWISE...BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS AT               
THE SURFACE BY LATE MORNING WILL BE THE ONLY CONCERN.                           
24                                                                              
&&                                                                              
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
KS...NONE.                                                                      
NE...NONE.                                                                      
CO...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</pre> ks                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC                             
411 AM EST WED NOV 5 2008                                                       
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
LOW PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST WILL TRACK SLOWLY N                        
ALONG THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST. THE SYSTEM WILL SLOWLY LIFT                       
NORTHEAST AWAY FROM OUR REGION TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. WEAK HIGH                  
PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL                 
PASS THROUGH SATURDAY.                                                          
&&                                                                              
.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...                                                           
SOME SMALL VARIANCES IN THE MDL TRACK OF THE CSTL LOW...BUT THIS                
WOULD HV IMPLICATIONS ON WHICH AREAS RECEIVE ADTNL RAFL AND HOW                 
MUCH. SREF KEEPS BULK OF PCPN FM DELMARVA EWD...WHILE RUC HRRR SPREADS          
PCPN INTO THE APLCHNS. BLV LKLY SCENARIO WL SHOW A TIGHT RAFL                   
GRADIENT TDA...AND HV CAT POPS ALONG THE BAY. LKLY POPS BTWN I-81               
TO THE BAY...DROPPING TO ISOLD IN THE HIGHLANDS. THESE WL DIMINISH              
FURTHER BY LATE AFTN. W/ XCPTN OF ALONG THE BAY ALL QPF`S WL BE LGT.            
TEMPS GNRLY REACHING L60S TDA...WHICH IS RIGHT ON CLIMO NORMS FOR               
ERLY NOV.                                                                       
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...                                                        
LOW CONTINUES ITS SLOW TREK N MAINTAINING THE TIGHT PCPN STRIATION              
OVRNGT. LKLY POPS IN THE BAY...ISOLD POPS IN VCNTY I-81...CHC IN BTWN.          
LOW TEMPS IN 40S E OF I-95...L50S E.                                            
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...                                        
A WET MRNG ON THURS FOR LOCALES EAST OF I-95 ON INTO EARLY AFTN.                
THIS IS AN AREA WHERE THE NAM/GFS FINALLY IN AGREEMENT FOR THE SFC              
LOW HALTING IT/S N/WRD MOVEMENT...MEANDERING OFF THE MID ATLNC COAST            
THRU THE DAY ON THURS. THE LOW THEN SLIDES SLOWLY E/WRD ON FRIDAY               
AND REDEVELOPING ANOTHER SFC LOW OFF THE CAPE COD REGION BEFORE                 
FINALLY BEING KICKED-OUT NE/WRD THIS WEEKEND. SO THE REMNANT RAIN               
BANDS FROM THE LOW WILL DISSIPATE GRADUALLY DRNG THE AFTN/EVNG HRS              
ON THURS...W/ MUCH OF CWA DRY BY EARLY FRIDAY. THE WEAK ONSHORE FLOW            
WILL KEEP THE BNDRY LAYER MOIST ACROSS THE PIEDMONT/COASTAL REGIONS.            
WEAK HIPRES RIDGING ON FRIDAY WILL TAKE THE CNTL PIEDMONT OF THE MID            
ATLNC BACK INTO A DRIER AND WARMER REGIME /JUST FOR THE DAY/...AS               
HIGHS CLIMB BACK INTO THE U60S/L70S.                                            
FRIDAY...THE TRANSITION DAY BTWN SYSTEMS W/ AN DISSIPATING COLD                 
FRONT APRCHG THE REGION OVERNIGHT FRIDAY INTO EARLY SAT. THE GFS                
/THE MOST AGGRESSIVE IN PAST DAYS ON DEVELOPING A LEE TROF ACROSS               
THE MID ATLNC/ NOW MAKING A COMMON FRONTAL DISSIPATING OVER THE                 
CNTL APLCHS AND A DRY SATURDAY ACROSS THE MID ATLNC. THE NAM/ECMWF              
WHICH TOOK LONGER INITIALLY W/ DEVELOPING PRECIP ON SAT ARE ALSO                
BACKING OFF AS WELL. DID NOT CHANGE POPS MUCH FOR THE WEEKEND...W/              
A LIKELIHOOD OF SCTD -RA FROM THE PRE-FRONTAL FORCING AND INCRD                 
MOIST S/RLY FLOW.                                                               
ANOTHER NOTEWORTHY CHANGE IS THE DROP IN MAGNITUDE FOR WINDS BEHIND             
THE FRONT LATE SAT AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE MAIN UPPER CLOSED              
LOW RESPONSIBLE FOR THE DYNAMICS OF THE GRT LKS SYSTEM THIS                     
WEEKEND...WILL STALL OVER ERN QUEBEC...PUSHING A TRANSITIONAL ZONAL             
FLOW REGIME OVER THE MID ATLNC SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. WINDS WON/T BE AS            
STRONG...MAINLY IN THE 10-15MPH RANGE AND TEMPS WILL ALSO BE                    
MODERATED INTO THE 50S FOR HIGHS. SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE THE COLDEST              
NIGHT IN THE FORECAST W/ THE WRN HALF OF THE CWA NEAR FRZNG AND THE             
ERN HALF IN THE M/U30S.                                                         
A VERY UNCERTAIN SPIN ON THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST...W/ MODELS              
GUESSING ON THE NEXT MIDWESTERN SYSTEM AND IT/S AFFECT ON THE MID               
ATLNC...PSBLY BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.                                       
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION /TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...                                             
MAJOR AIRPORTS W/ IFR CIGS WL IMPROVE TO MVFR LATER THIS MRNG AND               
RMN THERE INTO THE NGT.                                                         
THE COASTAL LOW PRES SYSTEM WILL KEEP A TIGHT AREA OF SHRA/IFR-MVFR             
CIGS NEAR THE COAST ON THURS...W/ LESSER EFFECTS WEST OF I-95. EARLY            
FRIDAY...THE LOW WILL DRIFT FAR OFF THE MID ATLNC COAST W/ HIGH PRES            
THRU LATE FRI. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE OVER REGION ON SAT...W/             
LITTLE CONCERN OTHER THAN A FEW INTERMITTENT GUSTS AND AND ISLTD                
SHRA. BEHIND THE FRONT...HIGH PRES AND DRIER CONDS THRU THE MIDDLE              
OF NEXT WEEK.                                                                   
&&                                                                              
.MARINE...                                                                      
LOW PRES ADVANCING UP THE COAST WILL CAUSE THE PRES GRAD TO                     
TIGHTEN IN THE ERN PART OF THE CWA. THIS IN TURN WILL CREATE SCA                
WINDS ACROSS THE ENTIRE MARINE AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT.                          
A COASTAL LOW PRES SYSTEM WILL MEANDER OFF THE MID ATLNC COAST ON               
THURS...KEEPING SCA CONDS THRU THE DAY AND GENERALLY SUBSIDING DRNG             
THE EVNG HRS. THE LOW WILL MOVE OFF TO THE NE ON FRIDAY...                      
LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST UNDER MUCH LESS DYNAMIC                   
CONDS OUTSIDE OF A COLD FRONT FOR SAT AFTN/EVNG. THE REST OF THE                
WEEKEND NOT EXPTD TO BE AS WINDY BEHIND THE FRONT. HIGH PRES WILL               
INFLUENCE THE REGION OF EARLY NEXT WEEK.                                        
&&                                                                              
.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
DC...NONE.                                                                      
MD...NONE.                                                                      
VA...NONE.                                                                      
WV...NONE.                                                                      
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EST THURSDAY FOR ANZ531>534-           
     537.                                                                       
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM THIS MORNING TO 5 PM EST                    
     THURSDAY FOR ANZ530-535-536.                                               
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
PRODUCTS..WOODY!/GMS                                                            
</pre> md                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA                                           
1152 AM EST TUE NOV 4 2008                                                      
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP OFF THE CAROLINA               
COAST THIS AFTERNOON...MOVING SLOWLY NORTHEAST ALONG THE COAST                  
THROUGH MIDWEEK. THIS LOW WILL EVENTUALLY MOVE WELL OFF THE MID                 
ATLANTIC COAST BY LATE IN THE WEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH                  
FROM THE WEST AND EFFECT THE REGION OVER THE WEEKEND.                           
&&                                                                              
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...                                                 
LATE MORNING ANALYSIS DEPICTS INVERTED TROF FROM DEVELOPING                     
SOUTHERN STREAM LOW JUST OFF THE SC COAST. COMPLICATED FORECAST                 
TODAY AS MODELS CONTINUE TO DISAGREE WITH OVERALL EVOLUTION OF LOW              
PRESSURE OFFSHORE AND ASSCD PRECIPITATION.                                      
LGT PCPN FROM CONTINUING ISENTROPIC LIFT OVER THE CWA...BUT                     
RETURNS ARE VERY SPARSE ATTM WITH LTL IN THE WAY OF LLVL MIDLVL                 
WNDS THRU MID AFTN. A PEEK AT RUC AND 09Z SREF ARE VERIFYING BEST               
THUS FAR THIS MORNING...AND SEEM TO KEEP PCPN LIGHT OVER THE NWRN               
HALF OF THE AREA...FVX-PTB-SBY AND NORTH...THROUGH AT LEAST 20Z.                
SOUTH OF THIS LINE...LLVL CONVERGENCE AND ISENTROPIC LIFT AHEAD OF              
APPROACHING TROF WOULD PORTEND TO A CHC FOR LOCALLY HVY RAINFALL                
(BRIEFLY) THIS AFTN. STILL...LOOKS MORE LK PERIODS OF RAIN MORE                 
THAN A CONTINUOUS RAINFALL WHICH WAS PRVSLY IN THE GRIDS.                       
REGARDING FLOOD WATCH OVER THE SE...AGREE WITH LATEST HPCQPF                    
DISCUSSION THAT ONGOING CONVECTION OFFSHORE MAY WELL ROB HEADLINE               
AREA OF HEAVIEST RAINS. CONFIDENCE FOR FLOODING IN D2 DROUGHT                   
AREA (NC COUNTIES)...BUT 12Z 4NOV WOULD AT LEAST ARGUE FOR A                    
CHANCE OF SOME URBANIZED FLOODING IN USUAL SPOTS ACROSS THE                     
TIDEWATER AREA TONIGHT AND EARLY WED. RATHER THAN SWITCH                        
MIDSTREAM TO FLASH FLOOD HEADLINE...WL KEEP HEADLINES AS IS FOR                 
THE CWA.                                                                        
AS TO TOTAL EVENT QPF...HAVE CONTINUED IDEA OF AN AVERAGE OF 2 TO               
4 INCHES OF RAINFALL OVER SE CWA (LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS WILL BE                
POSSIBLE) THROUGH 12Z WED. HOWEVER...TWEAKED DOWN RAINFALL THRU                 
THE AFTERNOON AS PER CURRENT SAT/RADAR TRENDS. A GENERAL HALF INCH              
TO AROUND 2 INCHES (FROM WEST TO EAST) ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE              
CWA.                                                                            
BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS WILL BE CONFINED TO ERN THIRD OF THE CWA             
(HIGHEST WINDS ALONG THE EXTREME COAST). WIND GUSTS OF 30-40 MPH                
WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER IMMEDIATE COAST. TOOK TEMPS UPWARD ONLY AN                
ADDITIONAL 3-5 DEGREES THIS AFTN WITH SIG CLD COVER...YIELDING                  
HIGHS NR 60 OVER THE NW...L/M 60S OVER THE SERN CWA.                            
ZFPAKQ SENT 1053 AM.                                                            
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...                                     
WEDNESDAY AND BEYOND STILL VERY UNCERTAIN WITH RESPECT TO HOW LONG THE          
COASTAL LOW WILL EFFECT THE ERN THIRD OF THE CWA. GREATEST CHANCES              
FOR ADDITIONAL PRECIP OVER A HALF INCH BEYOND 12Z WED WILL BE MAINLY            
CONFINED TO THE ERN THIRD OF THE CWA (ESP ERN SHORE).                           
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...                                   
LOW PRES PULLS NE AWAY FROM THE AREA LATER ON THURSDAY. HIGH PRES               
BUILDS BACK IN FOR A BRIEF PERIOD LATE THU THRU FRI AFTN...THEN                 
LOW PRES MOVING EAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES DRAGS A COLD FRONT                  
THRU THE REGION FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND. HIGH TEMPS AOB               
CLIMO FRI/SAT...DROPPING TO MID 50S TO AROUND 60 FOR EARLY PART OF              
NEXT WEEK POST FROPA. MDLS APPEAR TO HAVE SIMILAR TIMING WITH THIS              
FRONT...BUT WITH IT BEING SO EARLY IN THE FORECAST PERIOD...OPTED               
TO INCLUDE CHC POPS ATTM.                                                       
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION /16Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...                                     
WDSPRD IFR/LIFR CNDTNS OVR RGN ATTM XCPT FOR ECG WHERE CIGS HAVE                
REMAINED ABV 3K FT. XPCT CIGS AOB 1K FT...AND LGT TO MDT RAIN /                 
FOG TO REDUCE VSBYS TO BTWN 2-5SM THRU FCST PRD. SOME AREAS OF +RA              
ACROSS SERN TAF SITES CUD REDUCE VSBYS EVEN FRTHR. GUSTS AOA 20KTS              
ALRDY NOTED ACROSS NRN OB AND THESE GUSTY WNDS WILL CONT TO MOVE N              
AS DAY PROGRESSES.                                                              
WDSPRD RAIN / IFR CNDTNS CONTINUE INTO WED. SLOW IMPROVEMENT ON                 
THU AS THE LOW MOVES FURTHER EAST. THE LOW DEEPENS WITH TIME AND                
WINDS WILL BE GUSTY AT ORF AND ECG WED AND THU WITH THE DIRECTION               
GRADUALLY SHIFTING FROM THE NE TO THE N OR NW.                                  
&&                                                                              
.MARINE...                                                                      
SCA HEADLINES IN PLACE AND WILL REMAIN UP THRU AT LEAST WED NITE                
AS LOW PRS INTENSIFYS AS IT MOVES SLOWLY UP THE MID ATLNTC COAST.               
MODELS CONT TO HAVE DFRNT SOLNS WRT STRENGTH AND TRACK BY WED.                  
NOT OUT OF THE QSTN TO SEE SOME GALE FORCE GUSTS ACROSS CSTL WTRS               
BY WED...BUT CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH ENUF ATTM TO GO WITH GALES. HAVE               
KEPT GUSTS CAPPED ARND 30 KTS WITH THIS FCST PACKAGE.                           
SEAS CONT TO BUILD AND SHUD REACH 8 FT ALONG THE NRN OB BEACHES.                
DUE TO THE FLOW BEING ONSHORE...HAVE ISSUED A HIGH SURF FOR CSTL                
WTRS S OF VA/NC BRDR (WILL CARRY IT THRU TIL 15Z WED PER COORD                  
WITH MHX). WILL LET DAY SHIFT EVALUATE WHETHER OR NOT TO GO FRTHR               
N WITH IT LATER TDY ONCE 12Z DATA ARRIVES.                                      
LOW BEGINS TO PULL AWAY FROM RGN WED NITE AND THU...TURNING WNDS                
INTO THE N THEN NW. CNDTNS BEGIN TO SLOWLY IMPROVE MY THU NITE AS               
SYSTMS INFLUENCE BEGINS TO FADE.                                                
&&                                                                              
.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
MD...NONE.                                                                      
NC...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR NCZ014>017-031-032-              
     102.                                                                       
     HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR NCZ102.                   
VA...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR VAZ091-093>098.                  
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST THURSDAY FOR ANZ632-633-           
     650-652-654-656-658.                                                       
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST THURSDAY FOR ANZ630-631.               
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SYNOPSIS...CCW/MAM                                                              
NEAR TERM...CCW/MAM                                                             
SHORT TERM...CCW                                                                
LONG TERM...SMF                                                                 
AVIATION...MPR                                                                  
MARINE...MPR                                                                    
</pre> md                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
645 PM EST WED NOV 5 2008                                                       
UPDATED FOR 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION                                             
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC SHOWING A LOW CENTER EMBEDDED IN DEEP               
TROUGH OVER NORTHERN AND MIDDLE HIGH PLAINS. WEAK SHORTWAVES EJECTED            
OUT AHEAD OF THIS TROUGH ARE OVER CENTRAL MINNESOTA INTO CENTRAL                
ONTARIO. DEEPER SHORTWAVES ARE OVER WESTERN NEBRASKA. SURFACE                   
ANALYSIS DEPICTS A CLOSED LOW NEAR KFSD. A FRONTAL SYSTEM EXTENDS               
NORTHEAST FROM THE LOW THROUGH NORTHERN MINNESOTA TO SOUTHERN TIP OF            
JAMES BAY...WHILE A COLD FRONT DRAPES SOUTH THE CENTRAL PLAINS. A               
STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE LOW CONTINUES TO DRAW WARM MOIST             
AIR INTO THE FORECAST AREA. ISENTROPIC ASCENT...SHORTWAVE ENERGY AND            
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ARE GENERATE SOME THUNDERSTORMS OVER MINNESOTA               
AND IOWA THIS AFTERNOON.                                                        
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT AND THURSDAY)...                                           
THE MID LEVEL WILL OVER WESTERN NEBRASKA WILL SHIFT EAST INTO                   
EASTERN NEBRASKA. SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL SHIFT THROUGH MINNESOTA AND             
WESTERN U.P. THIS AFTERNOON REACHING NORTHEAST NEBRASKA OVERNIGHT.              
THE SURFACE LOW WILL BECOME MORE FOCUSED OVER NORTHERN IOWA AND                 
SOUTHERN MINNESOTA TONIGHT. A FRONTAL SYSTEM LEADING THIS LOW WILL              
CONTINUE TO STRETCH NORTHEAST BUT WILL START TO SETTLE SOUTH INTO               
WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR OVERNIGHT. A TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL BE                  
DRAPED SOUTH INTO MIDDLE AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. WARM               
MOIST AIR WILL CONTINUE TO BE LIFTED NORTH AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL                 
SYSTEM. 850-500MB Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE WILL BE CONFINED TO THE                  
WESTERN U.P. THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. A 45 TO 50 KNOT LOW LEVEL              
JET EAST OF THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO DRAW MORE MOISTURE INTO THE              
AREA. AN UPPER LEVEL JET MAX WILL BE OVER JAMES BAY AND EASTERN                 
NEBRASKA INTO SOUTHERN MINNESOTA. TOGETHER THESE ARE PRODUCING SOME             
UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE OF THE WESTERN U.P. TONIGHT. THUS WILL KEEP A            
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE WEST TONIGHT CLOSER TO             
THE FRONT AND LOW CENTER.                                                       
THE MID LEVEL LOW WILL LIFT INTO SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA. THE WEAK                  
SHORTWAVE EJECTED OUT OF THE BASE OF THE LOW WILL SWEEP INTO                    
SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA AND EASTERN IOWA. THE SURFACE LOW WILL LIFT                 
NORTH INTO CENTRAL MINNESOTA. THE COLD FRONT WILL LIFT OUT OF THE               
UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY INTO NORTHEAST WISCONSIN ON THURSDAY.            
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUE TO SHIFT OVERSPREAD THE AREA AHEAD OF               
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THE STRONGEST Q-VECTORS CONVERGENCE AND                   
ISENTROPIC ASCENT WILL BE OVER THE WESTERN U.P. TEMPTED TO DROP THE             
MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS FOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON DUE TO THE EXPECTED             
LOW CAPE AND K-INDEX AND HIGH LIFTED INDEX READINGS. HOWEVER...THERE            
STILL DOES APPEAR TO BE SOME 300MB DIVERGENCE...MARGINAL 850-500MB              
LAPSE RATES AND STRONG ENOUGH LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR TO AT LEAST KEEP             
A MENTION FOR NOW.                                                              
.LONG TERM (THU NIGHT THROUGH NEXT WED)...                                      
THU NIGHT AND FRI...AT 00Z FRI...A NEARLY VERTICALLY STACKED LOW                
SHOULD BE SITUATED IN SW MN...WITH A 990S MB SFC LOW. THE ASSOCIATED            
UPPER TROUGH THE UPPER LOW IS IN LOOKS TO BE NEUTRAL OR POSSIBLY                
EVEN SOMEWHAT NEGATIVELY TILTED...STRETCHING SE INTO ILLINOIS.                  
MAJORITY OF THE MODELS (EXCLUDING THE NAM) PROG THE UPPER LOW TO                
GRADUALLY PUSH EAST DURING THIS PERIOD WHILE THE NEGATIVELY TILTED              
PORTION LIFTS UP INTO UPPER MI. THE 500MB HEIGHT FALLS THU NIGHT ARE            
QUITE IMPRESSIVE...BETWEEN 100-120 DAM. THESE HEIGHT                            
FALLS...COMBINED WITH A STREAM OF 1-1.25 INCH PRECIPITABLE WATER                
VALUES SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT A BAND OF SHOWERS TO MOVE SW TO              
NE ACROSS UPPER MICHIGAN THU NIGHT. WITH CONTINUED GOOD MODEL                   
AGREEMENT ON QPF...RAISED POPS TO CATEGORICAL IN MOST AREAS. DRY                
SLOT COMES IN BEHIND THIS BAND OF SHOWERS...TAPERING OFF THE PCPN.              
STILL MAINTAINED SOME 20 POPS BEHIND THE PCPN...MOSTLY IF THE TIMING            
NEEDS TO BE ADJUSTED WITH LATER RUNS. HOWEVER...IT STILL SEEMS                  
REASONABLE TO ASSUME THAT THE MAJORITY OF PCPN WILL FALL THU NIGHT.             
DID KEEP SOME LOWER CLOUD COVER...BUT DID NOT GO AS LOW AS MIGHT BE             
EXPECTED AS THE SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THE POSSIBILITY OF A LOW CLOUD                
DECK DEVELOPING IN THE WAKE OF THE RAIN (PER NAM/GFS SOUNDINGS).                
SOME WRAP-AROUND SHOWERS...ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROWAL...COULD WRAP              
BACK INTO WESTERN UPPER MICHIGAN ON THE NW SIDE OF THE UPPER                    
LOW...PRIMARILY IN THE AFTERNOON...AND THEREFORE HAVE SOME HIGHER               
POPS THERE. BROUGHT LOW TEMPERATURES UP A BIT CLOSER TO MET GUIDANCE            
GIVEN PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER...RAIN AND HIGH DEWPOINTS. HIGHS ON                 
FRIDAY WERE ALSO RAISED SLIGHTLY GIVEN POSSIBILITY FOR SOME SUN.                
HOWEVER...LATER FORECASTS MAY NEED TO ASSESS THE NEED FOR FOG.                  
FRI NIGHT AND SAT...THE WARM DAYS WE HAVE HAD LOOK LIKE THEY ARE                
GOING TO COME TO AN END...AT LEAST FOR A WHILE. UPPER LOW SHOULD                
CONTINUE TO PUSH EAST DURING THIS PERIOD...REACHING SE ONTARIO BY               
00Z. AS THE UPPER LOW CROSSES INTO WRN LOWER MI BY 12Z SAT...THE                
AREA BECOMES ENCOMPASSED BY THE TROWAL REGION. PCPN AMOUNTS DO NOT              
LOOK OVERLY IMPRESSIVE AT THIS TIME WITHIN THE TROWAL...ENOUGH TO               
WARRANT CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS. LIKELY POPS ARE MOSTLY CONFINED TO               
AREAS THAT CAN SEE SOME LAKE ENHANCEMENT OR UPSLOPE AS 850MB TEMPS              
FALL TO -2 TO -4C. OVERALL...PCPN TYPE WILL BE RAIN GIVEN THAT THE              
WET-BULB ZERO HEIGHTS ARE PROGGED TO STAY AT 2000-3000 FT OR EVEN               
HIGHER THROUGH THE NIGHT. HOWEVER...MORE COLD AIR IS INDICATED TO               
COME DOWN ON SAT AS THE UPPER LOW HEADS INTO ONTARIO...WITH 850MB               
TEMPS DROPPING TO -4 TO -8C BY 00Z SUN...COOLEST WEST. THE AIR                  
SHOULD BE COLD ENOUGH TO TRANSITION THE PCPN TYPES FROM RAIN TO                 
SNOW. NOT LOOKING FOR MUCH SNOW...THOUGH...DUE TO MOST OF THE                   
VERTICAL MOTION OCCURRING AT TEMPS ABOVE -10C...SFC TEMPS WILL                  
LIKELY BE AT LEAST IN THE MID 30S...AND THE WARM GROUND. ON THE                 
OTHER HAND...ANY SNOW THAT DOES ACCUMULATE SHOULD BE WET GIVEN A                
FAVORABLE PROFILE FOR AGGREGATION. THEREFORE...SNOW TO WATER RATIOS             
ARE EXPECTED AT OR BELOW 10 TO 1. SAT SHOULD BE QUITE BREEZY AS                 
WELL...ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTN AS THE SFC LOW HEADS OFF INTO NE                  
ONTARIO.                                                                        
SAT NIGHT THROUGH WED...UPPER LEVEL PATTERN IS STILL FORECAST TO                
CHANGE TO SPLIT FLOW BY ALL EXTENDED MODELS...PRIMARILY AFTER THE               
UPPER TROUGH THAT IS OVER THE AREA COMPLETELY EJECTS OUT INTO QUEBEC            
AND NEW ENGLAND. THE TIMING OF THIS EJECTION VARIES SOMEWHAT...WITH             
INDICATIONS OF A FEW SHRTWVS ROTATING THROUGH THE UPPER MICHIGAN ON             
THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE TROUGH...WHICH SLOWS DOWN THE EJECTION. IN              
ANY EVENT...ALL OF THE MODELS INDICATE THAT BY TUE MORNING THE                  
TROUGH IS OUT OF THE CWA...RIDGING BUILDS UP OVER THE NORTHERN                  
PLAINS AND A FAIRLY LARGE HIGH BUILDS INTO THE AREA AT THE                      
SURFACE. AFTER TUE...THE RIDGE IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS BUILDS INTO               
UPPER MI...WHILE SOME SHRTWV TROUGH CROSSES THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. NEW            
12Z ECMWF/GFS AGREE WITH THE PREVIOUS RUNS...MAKING THE EXTENDED                
FORECAST A BIT MORE CONFIDENT.                                                  
REGARDING DETAILS...SAT NIGHT THROUGH MON NIGHT WILL BE ON THE COOL             
SIDE THANKS TO NORTH TO NORTHWEST FLOW FROM THE SURFACE TO 500MB                
BRINGING COLD AIR DOWN FROM CENTRAL CANADA. 850MB TEMPS FROM THE 00Z            
ECMWF DROP TO -10 TO -12C BY 12Z SUN...AND THEN EVEN FALL FURTHER TO            
-12 TO -14C BY 12Z MON THANKS TO ONE OF THE SHRTWVS DROPPING SOUTH              
ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE UPPER TROUGH. READINGS THEN START CLIMBING              
UP MON NIGHT TO -8 TO -10C BY 12Z TUE. OVERALL...THE AIR IS PLENTY              
COLD ENOUGH TO PRODUCE LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS...AND SINCE THE WIND            
FLOW IS PRIMARILY OUT OF THE NW...THE NW FLOW AREAS OF THE WESTERN              
U.P. AND EAST OF MARQUETTE ARE FAVORED FOR PCPN. AFTER SAT NIGHT...             
THERE MAY NOT BE MUCH PCPN EITHER OVER THE SRN U.P. SINCE THE                   
SHRTWVS DO NOT HAVE MOISTURE TO WORK WITH. THIS MOISTURE                        
AVAILABILITY WILL ALSO AFFECT THE LAKE EFFECT AS WELL...AND GIVEN               
HOW COLD THE AIR IS COMPARED TO THE LAKE SFC...WOULD NOT BE                     
SURPRISED TO SEE SOME HIGHER CLOUD BASES THAN USUAL. THEREFORE...AT             
LEAST RIGHT NOW...NO MAJOR ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED. HAVE DECIDED TO            
CONTINUE SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS INTO TUE MORNING OVER THE EASTERN              
CWA UNTIL ENOUGH DRY AIR AND SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE HIGH                
COMES IN. TUE SHOULD END UP WARMER AS WELL...BUT STILL ON THE COOL              
SIDE WITH 850MB TEMPS BTWN -6 AND -8C. NO PCPN EXPECTED FOR TUE                 
NIGHT AND WED AS UPPER MI REMAINS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF DRY AIR                
FROM THE SFC HIGH. GRADUAL WARMING WILL OCCUR ON WED AS UPPER MI                
GETS ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE HIGH.                                              
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION (FOR THE 00Z TAF ISSUANCE)...                                         
EVEN THROUGH SCT -SHRA WILL MOVE THROUGH WEST AND CNTRL UPPER                   
MICHIGAN TONIGHT...THE SHOWERS SHOULD BE LIGHT ENOUGH SO THAT                   
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. ENOUGH INSTABILITY REMAINS SO               
THAT ISOLD TSRA ARE ALSO POSSIBLE AT KCMX THIS EVENING. LLWS WILL               
CONTINUE THIS  EVENING TRAPPING STRONGER WINDS JUST ABOVE THE                   
SURFACE. THE LOW LEVEL JET WILL SHIFT OUT OF THE AREA EARLY ON                  
THURSDAY.                                                                       
&&                                                                              
.MARINE (FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)...                       
STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION AHEAD OF A SURFACE LOW OVR THE NORTHERN               
PLAINS WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE GUSTY SOUTH WINDS OVR THE EASTERN               
HALF OF LAKE SUPERIOR THROUGH THURSDAY. HIGH STABILITY WITH NEAR SFC            
BASED INVERSION AND UNFAVORABLE PRESSURE FALL PATTERN FOCUSED TO THE            
SOUTH SHOULD PREVENT ANY GALES. THE SURFACE LOW WILL LIFT TOWARD                
WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR ON FRIDAY THEN ACROSS UPPER MICHIGAN INTO                 
SATURDAY. NORTH WINDS ON BACK SIDE OF THE LOW OVER WESTERN LAKE                 
SUPERIOR LATE FRIDAY NIGHT SHOULD REACH 30 KNOTS PRETTY EASILY WITH             
TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT AND COLD AIR ADVECTION ENHANCING MIXING. THE            
NORTHWEST WINDS TO 30 KNOTS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE REST OF LAKE                 
SUPERIOR SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY...THEN DIMINISH ON MONDAY AS A SURFACE            
RIDGE SETTLES OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS.                                         
&&                                                                              
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
UPPER MICHIGAN...NONE.                                                          
LAKE SUPERIOR...NONE.                                                           
LAKE MICHIGAN...NONE.                                                           
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM...DLG                                                       
LONG TERM...AJ                                                                  
AVIATION...JLB                                                                  
MARINE...DLG/AJ                                                                 
</pre> mi                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
353 PM EST WED NOV 5 2008                                                       
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC SHOWING A LOW CENTER EMBEDDED IN DEEP               
TROUGH OVER NORTHERN AND MIDDLE HIGH PLAINS. WEAK SHORTWAVES EJECTED            
OUT AHEAD OF THIS TROUGH ARE OVER CENTRAL MINNESOTA INTO CENTRAL                
ONTARIO. DEEPER SHORTWAVES ARE OVER WESTERN NEBRASKA. SURFACE                   
ANALYSIS DEPICTS A CLOSED LOW NEAR KFSD. A FRONTAL SYSTEM EXTENDS               
NORTHEAST FROM THE LOW THROUGH NORTHERN MINNESOTA TO SOUTHERN TIP OF            
JAMES BAY...WHILE A COLD FRONT DRAPES SOUTH THE CENTRAL PLAINS. A               
STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE LOW CONTINUES TO DRAW WARM MOIST             
AIR INTO THE FORECAST AREA. ISENTROPIC ASCENT...SHORTWAVE ENERGY AND            
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ARE GENERATE SOME THUNDERSTORMS OVER MINNESOTA               
AND IOWA THIS AFTERNOON.                                                        
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT AND THURSDAY)...                                           
THE MID LEVEL WILL OVER WESTERN NEBRASKA WILL SHIFT EAST INTO                   
EASTERN NEBRASKA. SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL SHIFT THROUGH MINNESOTA AND             
WESTERN U.P. THIS AFTERNOON REACHING NORTHEAST NEBRASKA OVERNIGHT.              
THE SURFACE LOW WILL BECOME MORE FOCUSED OVER NORTHERN IOWA AND                 
SOUTHERN MINNESOTA TONIGHT. A FRONTAL SYSTEM LEADING THIS LOW WILL              
CONTINUE TO STRETCH NORTHEAST BUT WILL START TO SETTLE SOUTH INTO               
WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR OVERNIGHT. A TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL BE                  
DRAPED SOUTH INTO MIDDLE AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. WARM               
MOIST AIR WILL CONTINUE TO BE LIFTED NORTH AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL                 
SYSTEM. 850-500MB Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE WILL BE CONFINED TO THE                  
WESTERN U.P. THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. A 45 TO 50 KNOT LOW LEVEL              
JET EAST OF THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO DRAW MORE MOISTURE INTO THE              
AREA. AN UPPER LEVEL JET MAX WILL BE OVER JAMES BAY AND EASTERN                 
NEBRASKA INTO SOUTHERN MINNESOTA. TOGETHER THESE ARE PRODUCING SOME             
UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE OF THE WESTERN U.P. TONIGHT. THUS WILL KEEP A            
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE WEST TONIGHT CLOSER TO             
THE FRONT AND LOW CENTER.                                                       
THE MID LEVEL LOW WILL LIFT INTO SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA. THE WEAK                  
SHORTWAVE EJECTED OUT OF THE BASE OF THE LOW WILL SWEEP INTO                    
SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA AND EASTERN IOWA. THE SURFACE LOW WILL LIFT                 
NORTH INTO CENTRAL MINNESOTA. THE COLD FRONT WILL LIFT OUT OF THE               
UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY INTO NORTHEAST WISCONSIN ON THURSDAY.            
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUE TO SHIFT OVERSPREAD THE AREA AHEAD OF               
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THE STRONGEST Q-VECTORS CONVERGENCE AND                   
ISENTROPIC ASCENT WILL BE OVER THE WESTERN U.P. TEMPTED TO DROP THE             
MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS FOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON DUE TO THE EXPECTED             
LOW CAPE AND K-INDEX AND HIGH LIFTED INDEX READINGS. HOWEVER...THERE            
STILL DOES APPEAR TO BE SOME 300MB DIVERGENCE...MARGINAL 850-500MB              
LAPSE RATES AND STRONG ENOUGH LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR TO AT LEAST KEEP             
A MENTION FOR NOW.                                                              
.LONG TERM (THU NIGHT THROUGH NEXT WED)...                                      
THU NIGHT AND FRI...AT 00Z FRI...A NEARLY VERTICALLY STACKED LOW                
SHOULD BE SITUATED IN SW MN...WITH A 990S MB SFC LOW. THE ASSOCIATED            
UPPER TROUGH THE UPPER LOW IS IN LOOKS TO BE NEUTRAL OR POSSIBLY                
EVEN SOMEWHAT NEGATIVELY TILTED...STRETCHING SE INTO ILLINOIS.                  
MAJORITY OF THE MODELS (EXCLUDING THE NAM) PROG THE UPPER LOW TO                
GRADUALLY PUSH EAST DURING THIS PERIOD WHILE THE NEGATIVELY TILTED              
PORTION LIFTS UP INTO UPPER MI. THE 500MB HEIGHT FALLS THU NIGHT ARE            
QUITE IMPRESSIVE...BETWEEN 100-120 DAM. THESE HEIGHT                            
FALLS...COMBINED WITH A STREAM OF 1-1.25 INCH PRECIPITABLE WATER                
VALUES SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT A BAND OF SHOWERS TO MOVE SW TO              
NE ACROSS UPPER MICHIGAN THU NIGHT. WITH CONTINUED GOOD MODEL                   
AGREEMENT ON QPF...RAISED POPS TO CATEGORICAL IN MOST AREAS. DRY                
SLOT COMES IN BEHIND THIS BAND OF SHOWERS...TAPERING OFF THE PCPN.              
STILL MAINTAINED SOME 20 POPS BEHIND THE PCPN...MOSTLY IF THE TIMING            
NEEDS TO BE ADJUSTED WITH LATER RUNS. HOWEVER...IT STILL SEEMS                  
REASONABLE TO ASSUME THAT THE MAJORITY OF PCPN WILL FALL THU NIGHT.             
DID KEEP SOME LOWER CLOUD COVER...BUT DID NOT GO AS LOW AS MIGHT BE             
EXPECTED AS THE SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THE POSSIBILITY OF A LOW CLOUD                
DECK DEVELOPING IN THE WAKE OF THE RAIN (PER NAM/GFS SOUNDINGS).                
SOME WRAP-AROUND SHOWERS...ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROWAL...COULD WRAP              
BACK INTO WESTERN UPPER MICHIGAN ON THE NW SIDE OF THE UPPER                    
LOW...PRIMARILY IN THE AFTERNOON...AND THEREFORE HAVE SOME HIGHER               
POPS THERE. BROUGHT LOW TEMPERATURES UP A BIT CLOSER TO MET GUIDANCE            
GIVEN PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER...RAIN AND HIGH DEWPOINTS. HIGHS ON                 
FRIDAY WERE ALSO RAISED SLIGHTLY GIVEN POSSIBILITY FOR SOME SUN.                
HOWEVER...LATER FORECASTS MAY NEED TO ASSESS THE NEED FOR FOG.                  
FRI NIGHT AND SAT...THE WARM DAYS WE HAVE HAD LOOK LIKE THEY ARE                
GOING TO COME TO AN END...AT LEAST FOR A WHILE. UPPER LOW SHOULD                
CONTINUE TO PUSH EAST DURING THIS PERIOD...REACHING SE ONTARIO BY               
00Z. AS THE UPPER LOW CROSSES INTO WRN LOWER MI BY 12Z SAT...THE                
AREA BECOMES ENCOMPASSED BY THE TROWAL REGION. PCPN AMOUNTS DO NOT              
LOOK OVERLY IMPRESSIVE AT THIS TIME WITHIN THE TROWAL...ENOUGH TO               
WARRANT CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS. LIKELY POPS ARE MOSTLY CONFINED TO               
AREAS THAT CAN SEE SOME LAKE ENHANCEMENT OR UPSLOPE AS 850MB TEMPS              
FALL TO -2 TO -4C. OVERALL...PCPN TYPE WILL BE RAIN GIVEN THAT THE              
WET-BULB ZERO HEIGHTS ARE PROGGED TO STAY AT 2000-3000 FT OR EVEN               
HIGHER THROUGH THE NIGHT. HOWEVER...MORE COLD AIR IS INDICATED TO               
COME DOWN ON SAT AS THE UPPER LOW HEADS INTO ONTARIO...WITH 850MB               
TEMPS DROPPING TO -4 TO -8C BY 00Z SUN...COOLEST WEST. THE AIR                  
SHOULD BE COLD ENOUGH TO TRANSITION THE PCPN TYPES FROM RAIN TO                 
SNOW. NOT LOOKING FOR MUCH SNOW...THOUGH...DUE TO MOST OF THE                   
VERTICAL MOTION OCCURRING AT TEMPS ABOVE -10C...SFC TEMPS WILL                  
LIKELY BE AT LEAST IN THE MID 30S...AND THE WARM GROUND. ON THE                 
OTHER HAND...ANY SNOW THAT DOES ACCUMULATE SHOULD BE WET GIVEN A                
FAVORABLE PROFILE FOR AGGREGATION. THEREFORE...SNOW TO WATER RATIOS             
ARE EXPECTED AT OR BELOW 10 TO 1. SAT SHOULD BE QUITE BREEZY AS                 
WELL...ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTN AS THE SFC LOW HEADS OFF INTO NE                  
ONTARIO.                                                                        
SAT NIGHT THROUGH WED...UPPER LEVEL PATTERN IS STILL FORECAST TO                
CHANGE TO SPLIT FLOW BY ALL EXTENDED MODELS...PRIMARILY AFTER THE               
UPPER TROUGH THAT IS OVER THE AREA COMPLETELY EJECTS OUT INTO QUEBEC            
AND NEW ENGLAND. THE TIMING OF THIS EJECTION VARIES SOMEWHAT...WITH             
INDICATIONS OF A FEW SHRTWVS ROTATING THROUGH THE UPPER MICHIGAN ON             
THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE TROUGH...WHICH SLOWS DOWN THE EJECTION. IN              
ANY EVENT...ALL OF THE MODELS INDICATE THAT BY TUE MORNING THE                  
TROUGH IS OUT OF THE CWA...RIDGING BUILDS UP OVER THE NORTHERN                  
PLAINS AND A FAIRLY LARGE HIGH BUILDS INTO THE AREA AT THE                      
SURFACE. AFTER TUE...THE RIDGE IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS BUILDS INTO               
UPPER MI...WHILE SOME SHRTWV TROUGH CROSSES THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. NEW            
12Z ECMWF/GFS AGREE WITH THE PREVIOUS RUNS...MAKING THE EXTENDED                
FORECAST A BIT MORE CONFIDENT.                                                  
REGARDING DETAILS...SAT NIGHT THROUGH MON NIGHT WILL BE ON THE COOL             
SIDE THANKS TO NORTH TO NORTHWEST FLOW FROM THE SURFACE TO 500MB                
BRINGING COLD AIR DOWN FROM CENTRAL CANADA. 850MB TEMPS FROM THE 00Z            
ECMWF DROP TO -10 TO -12C BY 12Z SUN...AND THEN EVEN FALL FURTHER TO            
-12 TO -14C BY 12Z MON THANKS TO ONE OF THE SHRTWVS DROPPING SOUTH              
ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE UPPER TROUGH. READINGS THEN START CLIMBING              
UP MON NIGHT TO -8 TO -10C BY 12Z TUE. OVERALL...THE AIR IS PLENTY              
COLD ENOUGH TO PRODUCE LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS...AND SINCE THE WIND            
FLOW IS PRIMARILY OUT OF THE NW...THE NW FLOW AREAS OF THE WESTERN              
U.P. AND EAST OF MARQUETTE ARE FAVORED FOR PCPN. AFTER SAT NIGHT...             
THERE MAY NOT BE MUCH PCPN EITHER OVER THE SRN U.P. SINCE THE                   
SHRTWVS DO NOT HAVE MOISTURE TO WORK WITH. THIS MOISTURE                        
AVAILABILITY WILL ALSO AFFECT THE LAKE EFFECT AS WELL...AND GIVEN               
HOW COLD THE AIR IS COMPARED TO THE LAKE SFC...WOULD NOT BE                     
SURPRISED TO SEE SOME HIGHER CLOUD BASES THAN USUAL. THEREFORE...AT             
LEAST RIGHT NOW...NO MAJOR ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED. HAVE DECIDED TO            
CONTINUE SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS INTO TUE MORNING OVER THE EASTERN              
CWA UNTIL ENOUGH DRY AIR AND SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE HIGH                
COMES IN. TUE SHOULD END UP WARMER AS WELL...BUT STILL ON THE COOL              
SIDE WITH 850MB TEMPS BTWN -6 AND -8C. NO PCPN EXPECTED FOR TUE                 
NIGHT AND WED AS UPPER MI REMAINS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF DRY AIR                
FROM THE SFC HIGH. GRADUAL WARMING WILL OCCUR ON WED AS UPPER MI                
GETS ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE HIGH.                                              
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION (FOR THE 18Z TAF ISSUANCE)...                                         
CMX...FOCUS IS ON FAIRLY WIDESPREAD AREA OF SHOWERS WITH QUITE A BIT            
OF THUNDER OVER EASTERN IOWA INTO SE MINNESOTA. STRONG MOISTURE                 
ADVECTION GENERATING THE RAIN IS PROJECTED TO MAKE IT TO CMX LATE               
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVEN THOUGH IT IS NOVEMBER...INCREASING                      
INSTABILITY ALOFT ALSO LEADS TO A GOOD CHANCE FOR SOME THUNDER. JUST            
INCLUDED A CB FOR NOW IN CASE THE PCPN DIMINISHES WITH LOSS OF LOW              
LEVEL JET MAX. HIGHEST CHANCES FOR SHRA/TSRA BTWN 20Z AND 00Z AS                
WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH. MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE            
WITH THE RAIN...ESPECIALLY IF IT PERSISTS FOR A FEW HOURS.                      
SAW...A CLUSTER OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD MISS SAW TO THE             
WEST THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. SO...ONLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED              
THROUGH TONIGHT. LLWS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THIS AFTERNOON              
SHOULD ALLOW SOUTHERLY WIND GUSTS TO APPROACH 27 KNOTS. LLWS WILL               
CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING TRAPPING STRONGER WINDS JUST                
ABOVE THE SURFACE. THE LOW LEVEL JET WILL SHIFT OUT OF THE AREA                 
EARLY ON THURSDAY.                                                              
&&                                                                              
.MARINE (FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)...                       
STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION AHEAD OF A SURFACE LOW OVR THE NORTHERN               
PLAINS WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE GUSTY SOUTH WINDS OVR THE EASTERN               
HALF OF LAKE SUPERIOR THROUGH THURSDAY. HIGH STABILITY WITH NEAR SFC            
BASED INVERSION AND UNFAVORABLE PRESSURE FALL PATTERN FOCUSED TO THE            
SOUTH SHOULD PREVENT ANY GALES. THE SURFACE LOW WILL LIFT TOWARD                
WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR ON FRIDAY THEN ACROSS UPPER MICHIGAN INTO                 
SATURDAY. NORTH WINDS ON BACK SIDE OF THE LOW OVER WESTERN LAKE                 
SUPERIOR LATE FRIDAY NIGHT SHOULD REACH 30 KNOTS PRETTY EASILY WITH             
TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT AND COLD AIR ADVECTION ENHANCING MIXING. THE            
NORTHWEST WINDS TO 30 KNOTS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE REST OF LAKE                 
SUPERIOR SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY...THEN DIMINISH ON MONDAY AS A SURFACE            
RIDGE SETTLES OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS.                                         
&&                                                                              
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
UPPER MICHIGAN...NONE.                                                          
LAKE SUPERIOR...NONE.                                                           
LAKE MICHIGAN...NONE.                                                           
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM...DLG                                                       
LONG TERM...AJ                                                                  
AVIATION...DLG                                                                  
MARINE...DLG/AJ                                                                 
</pre> mi                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE                                               
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
1230 PM EST WED NOV 5 2008                                                      
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC SHOWING A SLOW CENTER EMBEDDED IN DEEP              
TROUGH OVER NORTHERN AND MIDDLE HIGH PLAINS. WEAK SHORTWAVES ARE                
BEING EJECTED OUT AHEAD OF THIS TROUGH AND ARE OVER SOUTHERN                    
MINNESOTA AND CENTRAL ONTARIO. OTHER SHORTWAVES ARE OVER WESTERN                
NEBRASKA. SURFACE ANALYSIS DEPICTS A CLOSED LOW OVER EASTERN SOUTH              
DAKOTA AND EASTERN NEBRASKA. A FRONTAL SYSTEM EXTENDS NORTHEAST FROM            
THE LOW THROUGH NORTHERN MINNESOTA TO JAMES BAY. A STRONG SOUTHERLY             
FLOW AHEAD OF THE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO DRAW WARM MOIST AIR INTO THE             
FORECAST AREA. ISENTROPIC ASCENT...SHORTWAVE ENERGY AND LOW LEVEL               
MOISTURE CONTINUES TO GENERATE SOME THUNDERSTORMS OVER MINNESOTA                
AND IOWA THIS MORNING.                                                          
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...                                     
THE MID LEVEL WILL LIFT INTO WESTERN NEBRASKA THIS AFTERNOON.                   
SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL SHIFT THROUGH MINNESOTA AND WESTERN U.P. THIS             
AFTERNOON REACHING NORTHEAST NEBRASKA OVERNIGHT. THE SURFACE LOW                
WILL BECOME MORE FOCUSED OVER EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON               
BEFORE MOVING EAST INTO NORTHERN IOWA AND SOUTHERN MINNESOTA                    
TONIGHT. A FRONTAL SYSTEM LEADING THIS LOW WILL CONTINUE TO STRETCH             
NORTHEAST BUT WILL START TO SETTLE SOUTH INTO NORTHERN LAKE SUPERIOR            
OVERNIGHT. A TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL BE DRAPED SOUTHWEST INTO                  
MIDDLE AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. WARM MOIST AIR WILL                  
CONTINUE TO BE LIFTED NORTH AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL SYSTEM. 850-500MB              
Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE WILL BE CONFINED TO THE WESTERN U.P. THIS                  
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. A 45 TO 50 KNOT LOW WILL JET WILL CONTINUE TO            
DRAW MORE MOISTURE INTO THE AREA. AN UPPER LEVEL JET MAX WILL BE                
OVER JAMES BAY AND EASTERN NEBRASKA INTO SOUTHERN MINNESOTA.                    
TOGETHER THESE ARE PRODUCING SOME UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE OF THE                 
WESTERN U.P. THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. THUS WILL KEEP A CHANCE OF             
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE WEST THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT              
CLOSER TO THE FRONT AND LOW CENTER.                                             
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM...                                                                   
AS THE LOW SHIFTS OUT OF MINNESOTA ON THURSDAY AND BEGINS TO                    
OCCLUDE...MODELS ARE INDICATING THE FORMATION OF A TROWAL                       
FEATURE...WHICH BY FRIDAY MORNING EXTENDS FROM NORTHERN MN ACROSS               
THE NORTH SHORE OF LAKE SUPERIOR BACK INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. AS            
THIS HAPPENS DRY INTRUSION PER 850-500MB RH FIELD MOVES INTO FA FROM            
THE SOUTH. 00Z GFS RUN HAS TRENDED DRIER OVER THE WESTERN U.P. WITH             
THE INITIAL PUSH OF THE DRY SLOT. CAN/T JUSTIFY REMOVING POPS YET               
GIVEN LESS DRY EC SOLUTION...HOWEVER DID TREND POPS DOWN TO                     
ACCOMMODATE PROGRESSION OF DRY SLOT ON FRIDAY.                                  
FOR FRIDAY NIGHT ATTENTION TURNS TO PROGGED LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE               
ASSOCIATED WITH TROWAL FEATURE MIGRATING SOUTH FROM NORTHERN LAKE               
SUPERIOR. NEED TO WATCH LAKE SUPERIOR SHORELINES ALONG WESTERN ZONES            
FOR HEAVY PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL. VERY STRONG CONVERGENCE SIGNAL               
NOTED IN MODEL DERIVED VERTICAL MOTION FIELDS. THOUGH THE                       
OPPORTUNITY FOR HEAVY PRECIPITATION APPEARS BRIEF AS THE TROWAL                 
FEATURE WEAKENS AND SHIFTS QUICKLY EAST ON FRIDAY WITH THE DEPARTING            
LOW. FOR NOW WILL INCREASE POPS A BIT OVER POTENTIAL UPSLOPE AREAS.             
AS THE LOW EXITS TO THE EAST...COLD AIR WILL SLOWLY FILTER IN ACROSS            
THE CWA. MADE SOME CHANGES TO WX GRIDS TO REFLECT CHANGE FROM RAIN              
TO SNOW...THOUGH THIS CHANGE WILL BE GRADUAL. PARTIAL THICKNESS                 
PROGS WOULD SUGGEST AN ALL SNOW PRECIP. TYPE BY SOMETIME SUNDAY                 
MORNING WHEN COLD AIR IS FIRMLY IN PLACE. UNTIL THEN...HAVE                     
RAIN/SNOW MIX GRADUALLY SHIFTING EASTWARD THROUGHOUT SATURDAY INTO              
SUNDAY MORNING. CHANGE OVER TO SNOW IS FURTHER COMPLICATED BY                   
PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED TONGUE OF WARM AIR ALOFT WHICH WILL ONLY DELAY             
THE P-TYPE CHANGE.                                                              
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION (FOR THE 18Z TAF ISSUANCE)...                                         
CMX...FOCUS IS ON FAIRLY WIDESPREAD AREA OF SHOWERS WITH QUITE A BIT            
OF THUNDER OVER EASTERN IOWA INTO SE MINNESOTA. STRONG MOISTURE                 
ADVECTION GENERATING THE RAIN IS PROJECTED TO MAKE IT TO CMX LATE               
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVEN THOUGH IT IS NOVEMBER...INCREASING                      
INSTABILITY ALOFT ALSO LEADS TO A GOOD CHANCE FOR SOME THUNDER. JUST            
INCLUDED A CB FOR NOW IN CASE THE PCPN DIMINISHES WITH LOSS OF LOW              
LEVEL JET MAX. HIGHEST CHANCES FOR SHRA/TSRA BTWN 20Z AND 00Z AS                
WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH. MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE            
WITH THE RAIN...ESPECIALLY IF IT PERSISTS FOR A FEW HOURS.                      
SAW...A CLUSTER OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD MISS SAW TO THE             
WEST THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. SO...ONLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED              
THROUGH TONIGHT. LLWS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THIS AFTERNOON              
SHOULD ALLOW SOUTHERLY WIND GUSTS TO APPROACH 27 KNOTS. LLWS WILL               
CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING TRAPPING STRONGER WINDS JUST                
ABOVE THE SURFACE. THE LOW LEVEL JET WILL SHIFT OUT OF THE AREA                 
EARLY ON THURSDAY.                                                              
&&                                                                              
.MARINE (FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)...                       
STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION AHEAD OF A SFC LOW OVR THE NORTHERN PLAINS            
WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE GUSTY SOUTH WINDS OVR THE EASTERN HALF OF              
LAKE SUPERIOR THROUGH THURSDAY. HIGH STABILITY WITH NEAR SFC BASED              
INVERSION AND UNFAVORABLE PRESSURE FALL PATTERN FOCUSED TO THE SOUTH            
SHOULD PREVENT ANY GALES. SFC LOW LIFTS TOWARD WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR            
ON FRIDAY THEN ACROSS UPPER MICHIGAN INTO SATURDAY. NORTH WINDS ON              
BACK SIDE OF THE LOW OVR WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR FRIDAY NIGHT SHOULD              
REACH 30 KNOTS PRETTY EASILY WITH TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT AND COLD              
AIR ADVECTION ENHANCING MIXING. SOME LOW END GALE FORCE GUSTS TO 35             
KNOTS WERE ALSO INCLUDED. NW WINDS TO 30 KNOTS EXPECTED OVR THE REST            
OF LK SUPERIOR SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT WITH WINDS THEN                     
DIMINISHING ON SUNDAY AS SFC LOW LIFTS AWAY FM THE REGION.                      
&&                                                                              
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
UPPER MICHIGAN...NONE.                                                          
LAKE SUPERIOR...NONE.                                                           
LAKE MICHIGAN...NONE.                                                           
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM...DLG                                                       
LONG TERM...PEARSON                                                             
AVIATION...DLG                                                                  
MARINE...JLA                                                                    
</pre> mi                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN                              
558 PM CST WED NOV 5 2008                                                       
.UPDATE...                                                                      
UPDATED FOR AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.                                          
&&                                                                              
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
/ISSUED 307 PM CST WED NOV 5 2008/                                              
GOES WV LOOP SHOWING A STRONG UPPER JET DIGGING AROUND THE BASE                 
OF THE LONG WAVE TROUGH POISED OVER THE IMMEDIATE LEE OF THE                    
ROCKIES. THIS MAXIMA WILL EXPAND NORTH NORTHEAST THIS                           
EVENING...OVERRIDING A DEEP AND MOIST WARM SECTOR. SFC LOW AT                   
993MB IN SE SD THIS AFTN WITH BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS CONTINUING                 
AHEAD OF THIS. SFC CAPE EXISTS UP TO THE CENTER OF THE LOW                      
ACCORDING TO DIAGNOSTIC ANALYSIS. THIS LOW PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY              
WORK INTO SWRN MN OVERNIGHT TONIGHT.                                            
AS UPPER SPEED MAX APPROACHES WITHIN DIFFLUENT MID AND UPPER FLOW               
PATTERN AND LOW LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS...AREAL COVERAGE OF SHOWERS               
SHOULD INCREASE THIS EVENING BEGINNING IN SRN MN. THOUGH SFC CAPE               
UNLIKELY TO BE REALIZED IN OUR FORECAST AREA...ELEVATED INSTABILITY             
FROM THAT REGION WILL ADVECT NORTH NORTHEAST INTO THE FORECAST AREA             
THIS EVE AND EARLY OVERNIGHT. MUCAPE VALUES FROM THE 18Z RUC AND NAM            
RUNS ARE ON THE ORDER OF 200-600 J/KG. SIMILAR ELEVATED CAPE EXISTED            
THIS MORNING...AND A FEW STORMS WERE ABLE TO HAVE VIGOROUS ENOUGH               
UPDRAFTS TO HAVE BRIEF SEVERE HAIL. THUNDERSTORMS IN GENERAL WERE               
FAIRLY PLENTIFUL AND HAVE CONTINUED AT THIS LATITUDE OR NORTH IN                
ADJACENT AREAS TODAY. WHILE THE LAPSE RATES ASSOCIATED WITH THE                 
INSTABILITY TONIGHT ARE NOT PROJECTED TO BE AS STEEP AS THIS                    
MORNING...DEEP LAYER SHEAR VALUES WILL BE LARGE. SO THIS MAY HELP TO            
CREATE A FEW SEVERE STORMS...AND IF SO LIKELY THE LAST FEW OF THE               
YEAR. OVERNIGHT IS LIKELY TO SEE MORE RAIN COVERAGE ESPECIALLY IN               
ERN MN AND WRN WI UNDER TONGUE OF DEEPER OMEGA AND MOISTURE. SREF               
PROBABILITIES INDICATE THE POSSIBILITY OF A HALF INCH IN 6 HOURS OR             
GREATER INCREASING TO ABOVE 50 PERCENT IN SOUTHEAST FORECAST                    
AREA. WITH SOME TRAINING AND HIGH PRECIP EFFICIENCY...A HALF INCH OR            
MORE MAY INDEED BE REALIZED IN SOME COMMUNITIES OVERNIGHT. FLOOD                
THREAT LOOKS MINIMAL THOUGH AS ANY HEAVY RAIN CORES SHOULD BE                   
QUICKLY MOVING. BACK IN WRN MN...AS LOW MOVES OVER THE AREA TONIGHT             
BOTH FOG AND DRIZZLE ARE MORE LIKELY THAN RAIN SHOWERS. AND ONE MORE            
NIGHT OF MIN TEMPS ABOVE AVG MAX TEMPS FOR EARLY NOV.                           
THE BEST ISENTROPIC ASCENT SHIFTS NORTH OF OUR AREA BY THURSDAY                 
AFTERNOON... AND IS APPEARS THAT A DECENT DRY SLOT WILL OVERSPREAD              
MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA. HOWEVER... THERE IS A FAIR                  
AMOUNT OF SPREAD IN THE SREF AND SOME DISAGREEMENT BETWEEN THE NAM              
AND GFS ON THE DEPTH OF MOISTURE WHICH WILL LINGER BENEATH THE DRY              
SLOT. SO... ALTHOUGH THE BEST CHANCE FOR PCPN APPEARS TO BE IN THE              
MORNING HOURS... WILL KEEP POPS GOING THROUGH THE DAY...                        
PARTICULARLY OVER THE NORTH AND WEST.                                           
THE SIGNIFICANT ACTION WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO OUR WEST               
THURSDAY NIGHT... WITH ALL OF THE GUIDANCE SHOWING AN IMPRESSIVE                
TROWAL FEATURE AROUND THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE                 
UPPER PV ANOMALY. THE MAIN AXIS OF FRONTOGENESIS WILL BE                        
CORRELATED WITH THIS FEATURE... REMAINING TO OUR WEST THROUGHOUT                
THE TIME PERIOD. OVER OUR AREA... SOME Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE IS                  
ADVERTISED THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY OWING TO THE PRESENCE OF               
THE UPPER LOW. DEEP MOISTURE WILL MOVE BACK INTO THE AREA... WHICH              
WILL COMBINE WITH THE FORCING TO PRODUCE OCCASIONAL LIGHT PCPN.                 
THE TRANSITION FROM RAIN TO SNOW WILL OCCUR FROM SOUTHWEST TO                   
NORTHEAST FROM LATE THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH THE DAY ON FRIDAY...               
WITH PRIMARILY SNOW ANTICIPATED BY FRIDAY NIGHT. FORECAST                       
SOUNDINGS DO NOT SHOW AN ELEVATED WARM LAYER IMPACTED OUR AREA...               
WHICH IS REASONABLE GIVEN THE PRIMARY WARM ADVECTION AND                        
FRONTOGENETICAL ZONE TO OUR NORTHWEST... SO THE RAIN/SNOW LINE                  
WILL BE DEPENDENT UPON TEMPERATURES IN THE 1000-850MB LAYER.                    
GENERALLY FOLLOWED A BLEND OF THE 1000-850MB 1300M THICKNESSES AND              
SREF PROBABILITY OF SNOW PROGS TO TRY AND TIME THE TRANSITION FROM              
RAIN TO SNOW... ALTHOUGH ALSO TRIED TO TAKE INTO ACCOUNT FORECAST               
SURFACE TEMPERATURES DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS. THE STRONGEST                    
FORCING OVER OUR AREA... ALONG THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE PV                       
ANOMALY... LOOKS TO BE OVER THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST... SO SOME                   
ACCUMULATING SNOW IS POSSIBLE THERE... BUT AT THIS POINT DO NOT                 
ANTICIPATE ANYTHING MORE THAN LIGHT AMOUNTS. TRACE AMOUNTS ARE                  
EXPECTED TO THE NORTH AND EAST. FORCING WILL CONTINUE TO WANE                   
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY AS THE SYSTEM SLOWLY FILLS AND                    
EVENTUALLY SLIDE OFF TO THE EAST... WITH THE DEEP MOISTURE                      
DEPARTING WITH IT. WILL LOWER POPS STEADILY FROM WEST TO EAST                   
THROUGH THIS TIME PERIOD.                                                       
THE EXTENDED PERIOD OF THE FORECAST... SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...              
CONTINUES TO LOOK FAIRLY BENIGN ACROSS THE AREA. THE MEDIUM RANGE               
DETERMINISTIC SOLUTIONS HAVE SOME SPREAD IN THEIR HANDLING OF                   
FEATURES... WITH THE PRIMARY FEATURE OF INTEREST BEING A WAVE IN THE            
SOUTHERN STREAM WHICH SCOOTS BY TO OUR SOUTH MONDAY THEN LIFTS                  
NORTHEAST TOWARD THE OHIO VALLEY TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. OUR AREA IS            
GENERALLY IN BAGGY MID-UPPER LEVEL FLOW WITH THIS WAVE TO OUR SOUTH             
AND UPPER RIDGING ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA. WILL FOLLOW THE HPC              
GUIDANCE... WHICH IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN FROM 00Z.            
WITH THAT SAID... HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTH FROM CANADA ON                 
SUNDAY... BRINGING SEASONABLY COOL AND DRY WEATHER. THIS AREA OF                
HIGH PRESSURE LOOKS TO HOLD ON ACROSS THE REGION ON MONDAY... AS LOW            
PRESSURE ORGANIZES OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THERE IS SOME                      
POSSIBILITY THAT SOME PCPN COULD SNEAK INTO THE SOUTHERN CWFA IF                
THIS SYSTEM WINDS UP FARTHER NORTH... BUT THE TREND HAS BEEN FOR IT             
TO STAY SOUTH... SO WILL MAINTAIN THE DRY FORECAST. THE SURFACE LOW             
LIFTS NORTHEAST FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE WESTERN OHIO                  
VALLEY ON TUESDAY... WITH RIDGING HOLDING ON ACROSS OUR REGION. ONCE            
AGAIN... ANY NORTHWARD ADJUSTMENT COULD BRING PCPN INTO THE                     
SOUTHERN/SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES... BUT WILL BANK ON RIDGING AND DRY              
AIR KEEPING THINGS PCPN-FREE OVER OUR AREA. BY WEDNESDAY... THE                 
RIDGE WILL SLIDE FARTHER SOUTH ACROSS OUR AREA AS LOW PRESSURE OVER             
THE OHIO VALLEY LIFTS TOWARD THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. FAIR AND COOL             
CONDITIONS SHOULD PERSIST OVER OUR AREA.                                        
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION.../00Z TAF ISSUANCE/                                                  
LINE OF STORMS ATTM FROM EXTREME SW MN SOUTHWARD THROUGH WRN IA                 
AND INTO SERN NEBRASKA. 18Z NAM DID THE BEST AT FLAGGING THIS                   
AREA AHEAD OF TIME. BEST INSTABILITY WITH THIS LIFTS NNE TOWARD                 
RWF/STC/AXN...WHICH MAKES SENSE IN LIGHT OF UPPER AIR PATTERN. WILL             
MENTION TWO OR THREE HOURS OF THUNDER LATER THIS EVENING FOR THESE              
SITES. LINE SHOULD ARC AND/OR DEVELOP EASTWARD INTO MSP AND MAYBE               
RNH BUT WILL ONLY MENTION SHOWERS DUE TO MISSING OUT ON THE BETTER              
INSTABILITY. THEREAFTER...CIGS AND VISBYS WILL GRADUALLY BE ON                  
THEIR WAY DOWN TONIGHT WITH THE AMPLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. WILL                  
CONTINUE FORECAST OF IFR CONDITIONS TOWARD 12Z AND INTO THURSDAY                
MORNING...ESPECIALLY AT SITES WHERE MID-LEVEL DRY SLOT MOVES IN.                
HOWEVER...AMPLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINING IN PLACE AND SOME                  
LIFT SUGGESTS LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE MUCH OF THURSDAY DURING THE                 
DAY.                                                                            
&&                                                                              
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
MN...NONE.                                                                      
WI...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
TRH/TDK                                                                         
</pre> mn                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN                              
307 PM CST WED NOV 5 2008                                                       
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
CORRECTED TO INCLUDE UPDATED FIRST PERIOD DISCUSSION.                           
GOES WV LOOP SHOWING A STRONG UPPER JET DIGGING AROUND THE BASE OF              
THE LONG WAVE TROUGH POISED OVER THE IMMEDIATE LEE OF THE ROCKIES.              
THIS MAXIMA WILL EXPAND NORTH NORTHEAST THIS EVENING...OVERRIDING A             
DEEP AND MOIST WARM SECTOR. SFC LOW AT 993MB IN SE SD THIS AFTN WITH            
BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS CONTINUING AHEAD OF THIS. SFC CAPE EXISTS UP             
TO THE CENTER OF THE LOW ACCORDING TO DIAGNOSTIC ANALYSIS. THIS LOW             
PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY WORK INTO SWRN MN OVERNIGHT TONIGHT.                    
AS UPPER SPEED MAX APPROACHES WITHIN DIFFLUENT MID AND UPPER FLOW               
PATTERN AND LOW LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS...AREAL COVERAGE OF SHOWERS               
SHOULD INCREASE THIS EVENING BEGINNING IN SRN MN. THOUGH SFC CAPE               
UNLIKELY TO BE REALIZED IN OUR FORECAST AREA...ELEVATED INSTABILITY             
FROM THAT REGION WILL ADVECT NORTH NORTHEAST INTO THE FORECAST AREA             
THIS EVE AND EARLY OVERNIGHT. MUCAPE VALUES FROM THE 18Z RUC AND NAM            
RUNS ARE ON THE ORDER OF 200-600 J/KG. SIMILAR ELEVATED CAPE EXISTED            
THIS MORNING...AND A FEW STORMS WERE ABLE TO HAVE VIGOROUS ENOUGH               
UPDRAFTS TO HAVE BRIEF SEVERE HAIL. THUNDERSTORMS IN GENERAL WERE               
FAIRLY PLENTIFUL AND HAVE CONTINUED AT THIS LATITUDE OR NORTH IN                
ADJACENT AREAS TODAY. WHILE THE LAPSE RATES ASSOCIATED WITH THE                 
INSTABILITY TONIGHT ARE NOT PROJECTED TO BE AS STEEP AS THIS                    
MORNING...DEEP LAYER SHEAR VALUES WILL BE LARGE. SO THIS MAY HELP TO            
CREATE A FEW SEVERE STORMS...AND IF SO LIKELY THE LAST FEW OF THE               
YEAR. OVERNIGHT IS LIKELY TO SEE MORE RAIN COVERAGE ESPECIALLY IN               
ERN MN AND WRN WI UNDER TONGUE OF DEEPER OMEGA AND MOISTURE. SREF               
PROBABILITIES INDICATE THE POSSIBILITY OF A HALF INCH IN 6 HOURS OR             
GREATER INCREASING TO ABOVE 50 PERCENT IN SOUTHEAST FORECAST                    
AREA. WITH SOME TRAINING AND HIGH PRECIP EFFICIENCY...A HALF INCH OR            
MORE MAY INDEED BE REALIZED IN SOME COMMUNITIES OVERNIGHT. FLOOD                
THREAT LOOKS MINIMAL THOUGH AS ANY HEAVY RAIN CORES SHOULD BE                   
QUICKLY MOVING. BACK IN WRN MN...AS LOW MOVES OVER THE AREA TONIGHT             
BOTH FOG AND DRIZZLE ARE MORE LIKELY THAN RAIN SHOWERS. AND ONE MORE            
NIGHT OF MIN TEMPS ABOVE AVG MAX TEMPS FOR EARLY NOV.                           
THE BEST ISENTROPIC ASCENT SHIFTS NORTH OF OUR AREA BY THURSDAY                 
AFTERNOON... AND IS APPEARS THAT A DECENT DRY SLOT WILL OVERSPREAD              
MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA. HOWEVER... THERE IS A FAIR                  
AMOUNT OF SPREAD IN THE SREF AND SOME DISAGREEMENT BETWEEN THE NAM              
AND GFS ON THE DEPTH OF MOISTURE WHICH WILL LINGER BENEATH THE DRY              
SLOT. SO... ALTHOUGH THE BEST CHANCE FOR PCPN APPEARS TO BE IN THE              
MORNING HOURS... WILL KEEP POPS GOING THROUGH THE DAY...                        
PARTICULARLY OVER THE NORTH AND WEST.                                           
THE SIGNIFICANT ACTION WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO OUR WEST               
THURSDAY NIGHT... WITH ALL OF THE GUIDANCE SHOWING AN IMPRESSIVE                
TROWAL FEATURE AROUND THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE                 
UPPER PV ANOMALY. THE MAIN AXIS OF FRONTOGENESIS WILL BE                        
CORRELATED WITH THIS FEATURE... REMAINING TO OUR WEST THROUGHOUT                
THE TIME PERIOD. OVER OUR AREA... SOME Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE IS                  
ADVERTISED THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY OWING TO THE PRESENCE OF               
THE UPPER LOW. DEEP MOISTURE WILL MOVE BACK INTO THE AREA... WHICH              
WILL COMBINE WITH THE FORCING TO PRODUCE OCCASIONAL LIGHT PCPN.                 
THE TRANSITION FROM RAIN TO SNOW WILL OCCUR FROM SOUTHWEST TO                   
NORTHEAST FROM LATE THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH THE DAY ON FRIDAY...               
WITH PRIMARILY SNOW ANTICIPATED BY FRIDAY NIGHT. FORECAST                       
SOUNDINGS DO NOT SHOW AN ELEVATED WARM LAYER IMPACTED OUR AREA...               
WHICH IS REASONABLE GIVEN THE PRIMARY WARM ADVECTION AND                        
FRONTOGENETICAL ZONE TO OUR NORTHWEST... SO THE RAIN/SNOW LINE                  
WILL BE DEPENDENT UPON TEMPERATURES IN THE 1000-850MB LAYER.                    
GENERALLY FOLLOWED A BLEND OF THE 1000-850MB 1300M THICKNESSES AND              
SREF PROBABILITY OF SNOW PROGS TO TRY AND TIME THE TRANSITION FROM              
RAIN TO SNOW... ALTHOUGH ALSO TRIED TO TAKE INTO ACCOUNT FORECAST               
SURFACE TEMPERATURES DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS. THE STRONGEST                    
FORCING OVER OUR AREA... ALONG THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE PV                       
ANOMALY... LOOKS TO BE OVER THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST... SO SOME                   
ACCUMULATING SNOW IS POSSIBLE THERE... BUT AT THIS POINT DO NOT                 
ANTICIPATE ANYTHING MORE THAN LIGHT AMOUNTS. TRACE AMOUNTS ARE                  
EXPECTED TO THE NORTH AND EAST. FORCING WILL CONTINUE TO WANE                   
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY AS THE SYSTEM SLOWLY FILLS AND                    
EVENTUALLY SLIDE OFF TO THE EAST... WITH THE DEEP MOISTURE                      
DEPARTING WITH IT. WILL LOWER POPS STEADILY FROM WEST TO EAST                   
THROUGH THIS TIME PERIOD.                                                       
THE EXTENDED PERIOD OF THE FORECAST... SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...              
CONTINUES TO LOOK FAIRLY BENIGN ACROSS THE AREA. THE MEDIUM RANGE               
DETERMINISTIC SOLUTIONS HAVE SOME SPREAD IN THEIR HANDLING OF                   
FEATURES... WITH THE PRIMARY FEATURE OF INTEREST BEING A WAVE IN THE            
SOUTHERN STREAM WHICH SCOOTS BY TO OUR SOUTH MONDAY THEN LIFTS                  
NORTHEAST TOWARD THE OHIO VALLEY TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. OUR AREA IS            
GENERALLY IN BAGGY MID-UPPER LEVEL FLOW WITH THIS WAVE TO OUR SOUTH             
AND UPPER RIDGING ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA. WILL FOLLOW THE HPC              
GUIDANCE... WHICH IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN FROM 00Z.            
WITH THAT SAID... HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTH FROM CANADA ON                 
SUNDAY... BRINGING SEASONABLY COOL AND DRY WEATHER. THIS AREA OF                
HIGH PRESSURE LOOKS TO HOLD ON ACROSS THE REGION ON MONDAY... AS LOW            
PRESSURE ORGANIZES OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THERE IS SOME                      
POSSIBILITY THAT SOME PCPN COULD SNEAK INTO THE SOUTHERN CWFA IF                
THIS SYSTEM WINDS UP FARTHER NORTH... BUT THE TREND HAS BEEN FOR IT             
TO STAY SOUTH... SO WILL MAINTAIN THE DRY FORECAST. THE SURFACE LOW             
LIFTS NORTHEAST FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE WESTERN OHIO                  
VALLEY ON TUESDAY... WITH RIDGING HOLDING ON ACROSS OUR REGION. ONCE            
AGAIN... ANY NORTHWARD ADJUSTMENT COULD BRING PCPN INTO THE                     
SOUTHERN/SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES... BUT WILL BANK ON RIDGING AND DRY              
AIR KEEPING THINGS PCPN-FREE OVER OUR AREA. BY WEDNESDAY... THE                 
RIDGE WILL SLIDE FARTHER SOUTH ACROSS OUR AREA AS LOW PRESSURE OVER             
THE OHIO VALLEY LIFTS TOWARD THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. FAIR AND COOL             
CONDITIONS SHOULD PERSIST OVER OUR AREA.                                        
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION.../18Z TAF ISSUANCE/                                                  
CHALLENGING AVIATION FORECAST THROUGH THE NEXT 24 TO 30 HOURS.                  
DEEP SYSTEM SLOWING MOVING EAST OUT OF THE ROCKIES WITH CONTINUED               
WARM BUT MOISTENING AIR OVER THE REGION. FOR THE FIRST HALF OF                  
THIS AFTN...LACK OF FOCUS FOR WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL KEEP ANY                  
SHOWERS WIDELY ISOLATED. THEN MORE OF A CONCENTRATION IS EXPECTED               
BY LATE AFTN AND ESPECIALLY THIS EVENING AS DEEPER LIFT MOVES ATOP              
THE REGION. POTENTIAL FOR THUNDER WILL REMAIN THROUGH MUCH OF                   
TONIGHT AS MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE INSTABILITY VALUES SIMILAR               
TO THIS MORNING WHEN ALMOST ALL SHOWERS HAD SOME CLOUD-TO-GROUND                
LIGHTNING. CIGS AND VISBYS WILL GRADUALLY BE ON THEIR WAY DOWN                  
TONIGHT WITH THE AMPLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND THE ASSISTANCE OF                 
PRECIPITATION. IFR CONDITIONS STILL EXPECTED NEAR                               
MORNING...ESPECIALLY AT SITES WHERE LIGHTER WINDS DEVELOP. THESE                
WILL BE SEEN MOST NOTABLY AT AXN...STC...AND RWF AS SFC TROUGH                  
GRADUALLY EXPANDS INTO WRN MN. PRIMARY RAIN/SHOWER AREA TO ROTATE               
SLOWLY NORTHWARD ACROSS ERN MN AND WRN WI THU MORNING AS MID-LEVEL              
DRY SLOT ADVECTS AROUND SYSTEM AND INTO SRN MN. THOUGH THE MID-                 
LEVELS ARE DRY WITH THIS...WITH THE SFC LOW OVER CTRL/SRN MN AND                
REMAINING HIGH DEW POINTS...LOW CLOUDS ARE THOUGH TO REMAIN MUCH                
OF THU. THE THOUGH IS IFR CONDITIONS IN THE EARLY-MID MORNING                   
GIVING WAY TO PREVAILING MVFR BY NOON. DRIZZLE IS EXPECTED TO BE                
MORE COMMON THAN RAIN.                                                          
BEYOND TAF PERIOD...BACKSIDE PRECIPITATION WITH THIS SYSTEM AND                 
STRONGER WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO START IN WRN MN THU NIGHT. THERE IS              
POTENTIAL FOR THIS CHANGE TO SNOW AT AXN AND RWF DURING THAT TIME               
WITH AT LEAST SOME SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW LIKELY DURING FRI.                     
&&                                                                              
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
MN...NONE.                                                                      
WI...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
TRH/MTF                                                                         
</pre> mn                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN                              
303 PM CST WED NOV 5 2008                                                       
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
WEATHER OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS WILL BE QUITE BUSY AND VARIED...                 
ALTHOUGH THE MOST SIGNIFICANT ACTIVITY APPEARS AS THOUGH IT WILL                
MISS OUR AREA... BOTH WITH RESPECT TO HEAVY RAINS AND CONVECTIVE                
ACTIVITY OVER THE NEXT 12-24 HOURS AND THE TRANSITION TO SNOW AND               
WIND. LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC UPPER AIR ANALYSES SHOW A              
HIGHLY AMPLIFIED MID-UPPER PATTERN ACROSS THE CONUS... WITH A DEEP              
TROUGH CARVED OUT OVER THE EASTERN ROCKIES WITH IMPRESSIVE                      
DOWNSTREAM RIDGING OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND EASTERN US... ALTHOUGH              
A CUTOFF LOW WAS PERSISTING OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST. A LEAD                  
SHORTWAVE COULD BE SEEN LIFTING INTO EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA... WITH               
THE MAIN SHORTWAVE AND SIGNIFICANT UPPER LEVEL PV ANOMALY ROUNDING              
THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH NEAR THE COLORADO/NEW MEXICO BORDER.               
THIS FEATURE WILL LIFT UP THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE UPPER TROUGH                  
HELPING IT TO BECOME NEGATIVELY TILTED WHILE THE SURFACE LOW NEAR               
THE SOUTH DAKOTA/NEBRASKA BORDER DEEPENS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS                 
BEFORE BECOMING VERTICALLY STACKED OVER MINNESOTA. THE SYSTEM WILL              
THEN SLOWLY FILL AS IT LINGERS OVER OUR AREA FOR A TIME BEFORE                  
LIFTING NORTHEAST INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND ONTARIO. THE 12Z NAM                 
AND GFS ARE REASONABLY SIMILAR WITH THE LARGE SCALE MASS FIELDS...              
ALTHOUGH DO EXHIBIT SOME SUBSTANTIVE DIFFERENCES IN THE HANDLING                
OF THE UPPER AND SURFACE LOWS BEYOND 30 HOURS ONCE THE SYSTEM                   
OCCLUDES AND MEANDERS. WILL GENERALLY FOLLOW A BLEND OF THE SREF                
MEAN AND GFS FOR THE OVERALL HANDLING OF FEATURES... ALTHOUGH WILL              
PUT SOME WEIGHT ON THE NAM THROUGH THE FIRST 24 TO 36 HOURS.                    
MOISTURE TRANSPORT INCREASES OVER THE AREA TONIGHT... PARTICULARLY              
OVER THE SOUTH AND EAST LATE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. WILL                
GENERALLY GO WITH INCREASING POPS FROM SOUTH TO NORTH... FOCUSING               
THE HIGHER POPS OVER THE SOUTH AND EAST LATE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY              
MORNING. ELEVATED POTENTIAL INSTABILITY REMAINS IN PLACE OVER MUCH              
OF THE AREA THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING... BEFORE SLOWLY SLIDING                   
EASTWARD THROUGH THE AFTERNOON... SO WILL CONTINUE TO INCLUDE A                 
MENTION OF THUNDER IN THE FORECAST. THE BEST CHANCES FOR SEVERE                 
WEATHER WILL BE SOUTH OF OUR AREA WHERE THERE IS A BETTER CHANCE                
FOR CONVECTION ROOTED IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER... BUT INCREASING DEEP              
LAYER SHEAR AND ELEVATED INSTABILITY WILL KEEP SOME POTENTIAL FOR               
LARGE HAIL OVER THE SOUTHERN AND SOUTHWESTERN PORTION OF THE CWFA               
THROUGH THIS EVENING. THE BEST ISENTROPIC ASCENT SHIFTS NORTH OF                
OUR AREA THURSDAY AFTERNOON... AND IS APPEARS THAT A DECENT DRY                 
SLOT WILL OVERSPREAD MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA.                        
HOWEVER... THERE IS A FAIR AMOUNT OF SPREAD IN THE SREF AND SOME                
DISAGREEMENT BETWEEN THE NAM AND GFS ON THE DEPTH OF MOISTURE                   
WHICH WILL LINGER BENEATH THE DRY SLOT. SO... ALTHOUGH THE BEST                 
CHANCE FOR PCPN APPEARS TO BE IN THE MORNING HOURS... WILL KEEP                 
POPS GOING THROUGH THE DAY... PARTICULARLY OVER THE NORTH AND                   
WEST.                                                                           
THE SIGNIFICANT ACTION WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO OUR WEST               
THURSDAY NIGHT... WITH ALL OF THE GUIDANCE SHOWING AN IMPRESSIVE                
TROWAL FEATURE AROUND THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE                 
UPPER PV ANOMALY. THE MAIN AXIS OF FRONTOGENESIS WILL BE                        
CORRELATED WITH THIS FEATURE... REMAINING TO OUR WEST THROUGHOUT                
THE TIME PERIOD. OVER OUR AREA... SOME Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE IS                  
ADVERTISED THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY OWING TO THE PRESENCE OF               
THE UPPER LOW. DEEP MOISTURE WILL MOVE BACK INTO THE AREA... WHICH              
WILL COMBINE WITH THE FORCING TO PRODUCE OCCASIONAL LIGHT PCPN.                 
THE TRANSITION FROM RAIN TO SNOW WILL OCCUR FROM SOUTHWEST TO                   
NORTHEAST FROM LATE THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH THE DAY ON FRIDAY...               
WITH PRIMARILY SNOW ANTICIPATED BY FRIDAY NIGHT. FORECAST                       
SOUNDINGS DO NOT SHOW AN ELEVATED WARM LAYER IMPACTED OUR AREA...               
WHICH IS REASONABLE GIVEN THE PRIMARY WARM ADVECTION AND                        
FRONTOGENETICAL ZONE TO OUR NORTHWEST... SO THE RAIN/SNOW LINE                  
WILL BE DEPENDENT UPON TEMPERATURES IN THE 1000-850MB LAYER.                    
GENERALLY FOLLOWED A BLEND OF THE 1000-850MB 1300M THICKNESSES AND              
SREF PROBABILITY OF SNOW PROGS TO TRY AND TIME THE TRANSITION FROM              
RAIN TO SNOW... ALTHOUGH ALSO TRIED TO TAKE INTO ACCOUNT FORECAST               
SURFACE TEMPERATURES DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS. THE STRONGEST                    
FORCING OVER OUR AREA... ALONG THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE PV                       
ANOMALY... LOOKS TO BE OVER THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST... SO SOME                   
ACCUMULATING SNOW IS POSSIBLE THERE... BUT AT THIS POINT DO NOT                 
ANTICIPATE ANYTHING MORE THAN LIGHT AMOUNTS. TRACE AMOUNTS ARE                  
EXPECTED TO THE NORTH AND EAST. FORCING WILL CONTINUE TO WANE                   
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY AS THE SYSTEM SLOWLY FILLS AND                    
EVENTUALLY SLIDE OFF TO THE EAST... WITH THE DEEP MOISTURE                      
DEPARTING WITH IT. WILL LOWER POPS STEADILY FROM WEST TO EAST                   
THROUGH THIS TIME PERIOD.                                                       
THE EXTENDED PERIOD OF THE FORECAST... SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...              
CONTINUES TO LOOK FAIRLY BENIGN ACROSS THE AREA. THE MEDIUM RANGE               
DETERMINISTIC SOLUTIONS HAVE SOME SPREAD IN THEIR HANDLING OF                   
FEATURES... WITH THE PRIMARY FEATURE OF INTEREST BEING A WAVE IN THE            
SOUTHERN STREAM WHICH SCOOTS BY TO OUR SOUTH MONDAY THEN LIFTS                  
NORTHEAST TOWARD THE OHIO VALLEY TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. OUR AREA IS            
GENERALLY IN BAGGY MID-UPPER LEVEL FLOW WITH THIS WAVE TO OUR SOUTH             
AND UPPER RIDGING ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA. WILL FOLLOW THE HPC              
GUIDANCE... WHICH IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN FROM 00Z.            
WITH THAT SAID... HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTH FROM CANADA ON                 
SUNDAY... BRINGING SEASONABLY COOL AND DRY WEATHER. THIS AREA OF                
HIGH PRESSURE LOOKS TO HOLD ON ACROSS THE REGION ON MONDAY... AS LOW            
PRESSURE ORGANIZES OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THERE IS SOME                      
POSSIBILITY THAT SOME PCPN COULD SNEAK INTO THE SOUTHERN CWFA IF                
THIS SYSTEM WINDS UP FARTHER NORTH... BUT THE TREND HAS BEEN FOR IT             
TO STAY SOUTH... SO WILL MAINTAIN THE DRY FORECAST. THE SURFACE LOW             
LIFTS NORTHEAST FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE WESTERN OHIO                  
VALLEY ON TUESDAY... WITH RIDGING HOLDING ON ACROSS OUR REGION. ONCE            
AGAIN... ANY NORTHWARD ADJUSTMENT COULD BRING PCPN INTO THE                     
SOUTHERN/SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES... BUT WILL BANK ON RIDGING AND DRY              
AIR KEEPING THINGS PCPN-FREE OVER OUR AREA. BY WEDNESDAY... THE                 
RIDGE WILL SLIDE FARTHER SOUTH ACROSS OUR AREA AS LOW PRESSURE OVER             
THE OHIO VALLEY LIFTS TOWARD THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. FAIR AND COOL             
CONDITIONS SHOULD PERSIST OVER OUR AREA.                                        
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION.../18Z TAF ISSUANCE/                                                  
CHALLENGING AVIATION FORECAST THROUGH THE NEXT 24 TO 30 HOURS.                  
DEEP SYSTEM SLOWING MOVING EAST OUT OF THE ROCKIES WITH CONTINUED               
WARM BUT MOISTENING AIR OVER THE REGION. FOR THE FIRST HALF OF                  
THIS AFTN...LACK OF FOCUS FOR WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL KEEP ANY                  
SHOWERS WIDELY ISOLATED. THEN MORE OF A CONCENTRATION IS EXPECTED               
BY LATE AFTN AND ESPECIALLY THIS EVENING AS DEEPER LIFT MOVES ATOP              
THE REGION. POTENTIAL FOR THUNDER WILL REMAIN THROUGH MUCH OF                   
TONIGHT AS MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE INSTABILITY VALUES SIMILAR               
TO THIS MORNING WHEN ALMOST ALL SHOWERS HAD SOME CLOUD-TO-GROUND                
LIGHTNING. CIGS AND VISBYS WILL GRADUALLY BE ON THEIR WAY DOWN                  
TONIGHT WITH THE AMPLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND THE ASSISTANCE OF                 
PRECIPITATION. IFR CONDITIONS STILL EXPECTED NEAR                               
MORNING...ESPECIALLY AT SITES WHERE LIGHTER WINDS DEVELOP. THESE                
WILL BE SEEN MOST NOTABLY AT AXN...STC...AND RWF AS SFC TROUGH                  
GRADUALLY EXPANDS INTO WRN MN. PRIMARY RAIN/SHOWER AREA TO ROTATE               
SLOWLY NORTHWARD ACROSS ERN MN AND WRN WI THU MORNING AS MID-LEVEL              
DRY SLOT ADVECTS AROUND SYSTEM AND INTO SRN MN. THOUGH THE MID-                 
LEVELS ARE DRY WITH THIS...WITH THE SFC LOW OVER CTRL/SRN MN AND                
REMAINING HIGH DEW POINTS...LOW CLOUDS ARE THOUGH TO REMAIN MUCH                
OF THU. THE THOUGH IS IFR CONDITIONS IN THE EARLY-MID MORNING                   
GIVING WAY TO PREVAILING MVFR BY NOON. DRIZZLE IS EXPECTED TO BE                
MORE COMMON THAN RAIN.                                                          
BEYOND TAF PERIOD...BACKSIDE PRECIPITATION WITH THIS SYSTEM AND                 
STRONGER WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO START IN WRN MN THU NIGHT. THERE IS              
POTENTIAL FOR THIS CHANGE TO SNOW AT AXN AND RWF DURING THAT TIME               
WITH AT LEAST SOME SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW LIKELY DURING FRI.                     
&&                                                                              
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
MN...NONE.                                                                      
WI...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
TRH/MTF                                                                         
</pre> mn                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN                                              
1244 PM CST WED NOV 5 2008                                                      
.UPDATE...                                                                      
WE STRESSED PRECIPITATION...INCREAING POPS RIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY.              
WE ALSO STRESSED THUNDER BY PUTTING IT AT THE SCATTERED LEVEL                   
THROUGH THURSDAY. WE HELD OFF ON SNOW...NOT BRINGING ANY MIX EAST               
OF OUR WESTERN MARGIN UNTIL FRIDAY NIGHT. ON FRIDAY NIGHT...WE                  
KEPT ALL RAIN ALONG LAKE SUPERIOR AND ACROSS NORTHWEST WISCONSIN                
AND WENT WITH A WINTRY MIX FURTHER WEST. WE WENT TO ALL SNOW                    
FRIDAY NIGHT WEST OF ST LOUIS COUNTY. ON SATURDAY...WE WENT WITH                
ALL SNOW ACROSS NORTHEAST MINNESOTA AND KEPT A MIX ACROSS                       
NORTHWEST WISCONSIN.                                                            
&&                                                                              
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
DEEP SURFACE LOW OVER BUFFALO RIDGE IS BRINGING DEW POINTS IN THE               
10C TO 13C RANGE NORTHWARD...ALONG WITH UNSEASONABLY WARM AIR UP                
ACROSS OUR AREA. THE LOW IS XPCD TO STALL OVER BUFFALO RIDGE INTO               
FRIDAY MORNING...AS THE UPPER TROUGH CATCHES UP TO IT AND CUTS                  
OFF. THE UPPER LOW THAT STACKS OVER IT HAS NINE CLOSED CIRCLES                  
WHICH REMOVES IT FROM THE PREVAILING FLOW AND SETS IT UP AS AN                  
OMEGA BLOCK OF ITS VERY OWN. SURFACE PRESSURES FALLING TO AOB 990               
MB WITH THE SORT OF WARM ADVECTION POURING INTO IT SETS IT UP FOR               
THIS BAROCLINIC-TYPE TRANSITIONING AND EVEOLUTION. SO WE LINGER                 
THE WARM AIR OVER US...ALONG WITH THUNDER...RIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY              
AND WE MAY NEED TO EVENTUALLY PUSH THUNDER OUT FURTHER. DRAMATIC                
COOLING REMAINS WEST AND SOUTH OF THIS SYSTEM...AND WEST AND SOUTH              
OF OUR AREA. AGAIN...WE DON/T FEEL THAT THIS SYSTEM IS GOING TO BE              
VERY PROGRESSIVE AT ALL...SO WE AGREE WITH ALL THE MODELS PREFERENCE            
OF LAGGING EASTWARD OR NORTHWARD PROGRESSION OF COLD AIR. WE HOLD               
ANY CHANGE-OVER TO SNOW TO FRIDAY NIGHT...WHICH WILL BE DIFFICULT               
ANYWAY WITH THE WARMTH OF THE GROUND AND ESPECIALLY THE LAKE AND                
ALSO WITH THE LACK OF A TRUE INTRUSION OF ACTUALLY COLD CANADIAN                
AIR. WE DON/T GO TO ALL SNOW ACROSS ALL OF NORTHEAST MN UNTIL                   
SATURDAY AND ACROSS NORTHWEST WISCONSIN UNTIL LATE SATURDAY. PRIND              
THE SYSTEM FINALLY BECOMES PROGRESSIVE ENOUGH TO START PULLING                  
COLD AIR DOWN INTO OUR AREA AFTER THINGS BEGIN TO DRY OUT EARLY                 
SUNDAY. WE WILL NEED TO EXAMINE THE 12Z EUROPEAN A LITTLE MORE TO               
GET A BETTER MODEL CONSENSUS ON WHEN THE COLD AIR BEGINS TO SETTLE              
INTO OUR AREA.                                                                  
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 359 AM CST WED NOV 5 2008/                          
DISCUSSION...                                                                   
INITIAL BAND OF ELEVATED CONVECTION... ASSOCIATED WITH LLJ IMPINGING            
ON EAST/WEST THERMAL BDRY...HAS SHIFTED NORTH OF CWA. CWA REMAINS               
UNDER INFLUENCE OF RRQ OF UPPER JET OVER ONTARIO EARLY THIS                     
MORNING. LATEST RUC13 SHOWS MAGNITUDE OF LLJ IS DECREASING AS                   
FIRST SHORTWAVE HAS MOVED NE OF AREA. 70/50 LAPSE RATES HAVE                    
INCREASED TO 6/7C/KM SO INSTABILITY WILL NOW ALLOW ADDITIONAL                   
GROWTH OF SPORADIC CONVECTION.                                                  
TODAY/TONIGHT...MAJOR CHANGES UNDERWAY OVER WESTERN CONUS WITH                  
AMPLIFICATION OF PROGRESSIVE UPPER TROF. INTENSIFICATION OF SFC                 
LOW IS OCCURRING AS INITIAL 30H JET MAX SPREADS INTO PLAINS EARLY               
THIS MORNING. STRONGEST JET CORE ON WEST SIDE OF TROF SO                        
AMPLIFICATION OF UPPER TROF WILL CONTINUE WITH EVENTUAL                         
CLOSING/CAPTURING OF MID/SFC LOWS BY 12Z THUR OVER NEBRASKA                     
VICINITY. THIS LEAVES NWRN CORNER OF CWA UNDERNEATH A DEVELOPING                
COUPLED JET TODAY WITH LEFT EXIT REGION OF PLAINS JET INTERACTING               
WITH RRQ OF ONTARIO JET CORE. AN AREA OF COOLING CLOUD TOPS IS                  
OCCURRING JUST NW OF CWA AS LARGE SCALE ASCENT INCREASES. HAVE KEPT             
HIGHEST POPS OVER WRN CWA THROUGH 18Z...THEN SPREAD HIGHER POPS                 
EAST TOWARDS TWIN PORTS THIS AFTERNOON. LATEST 4KM NMM/WRF SIM                  
REFL PRODUCT SUGGESTS INCREASING CORRIDOR OF CONVECTION ALONG ST                
CROIX VALLEY TO NORTH SHORE. PRECIP SHOULD EXPAND TONIGHT AS AREA               
COMES UNDER INCREASING DIFFLUENCE OF MID LVL TROF. MARINE LAYER                 
WILL DEEPEN ALONG SUPERIOR AS ONSHORE WINDS UNDERCUT WARM MOIST                 
AIR ALOFT.                                                                      
THURSDAY...MID LVL CLOSED LOW DEEPENS AS MAIN JET CORE SWINGS OUT               
OF ROCKIES. WELL DEFINED DRY SLOT/TROWAL ROTATES NE TOWARDS CWA BY              
LATE IN THE DAY. MDLS HAVE TIMING DIFFERENCES SO TOUGH TO BE TOO                
SPECIFIC ON MAIN CONVEYOR BELT OF MSTR. WILL NEED TO MONITOR SVR                
POTENTIAL AS MDL SUGGESTS LOW CAPE/MDT 0-6KM BULK SHEAR ENVIRONMENT             
WILL DEVELOP.                                                                   
EXTENDED...FRID THRU SUN...FCST STILL RELATIVELY UNCHANGED WITH RAIN            
TO SNOW TRANSITION DEVELOPING FRIDAY ACROSS WRN CWA. SOME CONCERN               
THAT INTENSITY OF MID LVL LOW MAY PROMOTE ENOUGH COOLING OF DEEP                
LAYER THERMAL FIELD TO MIX SNOW WITH RAIN OVER PARTS OF SRN/SERN                
CWA EARLIER THAN EXPECTED. GIVEN UNCERTAINTY OF MID LVL                         
PLACEMENT/STRENGTH WILL LEAVE JUST LIQUID FOR NOW. COLD AIR RUSHES              
IN FRIDAY EVENING ENSURING CHANGEOVER TO SNOW. SOME ACCUMULATION                
POSSIBLE AND WILL DETAIL IN LATER FCSTS.                                        
AVIATION...                                                                     
VFR CIGS WILL GRADUALLY GIVE WAY TO MVFR CIGS WITH THE                          
ONSET OF THE NEXT ROUND OF PCPN LATER TODAY. VSBYS MAY OCCASIONALLY             
DROP INTO THE MVFR RANGE IN THE VICINITY OF TSRA. GUSTY SFC WINDS               
MAY ALSO ACCOMPANY THE STRONGER STORMS.                                         
&&                                                                              
POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                             
DLH  61  53  56  41 /  70  80  80  60                                           
INL  56  48  53  37 /  70  80  80  80                                           
BRD  60  52  52  36 /  60  80  80  60                                           
HYR  66  55  59  43 /  70  80  80  60                                           
ASX  64  54  58  43 /  70  80  80  40                                           
&&                                                                              
.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
MN...NONE.                                                                      
WI...NONE.                                                                      
LS...NONE.                                                                      
$$                                                                              
EOM/DAP                                                                         
</pre> mn                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN                                              
359 AM CST WED NOV 5 2008                                                       
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
INITIAL BAND OF ELEVATED CONVECTION... ASSOCIATED WITH LLJ IMPINGING            
ON EAST/WEST THERMAL BDRY...HAS SHIFTED NORTH OF CWA. CWA REMAINS               
UNDER INFLUENCE OF RRQ OF UPPER JET OVER ONTARIO EARLY THIS                     
MORNING. LATEST RUC13 SHOWS MAGNITUDE OF LLJ IS DECREASING AS                   
FIRST SHORTWAVE HAS MOVED NE OF AREA. 70/50 LAPSE RATES HAVE                    
INCREASED TO 6/7C/KM SO INSTABILITY WILL NOW ALLOW ADDITIONAL                   
GROWTH OF SPORADIC CONVECTION.                                                  
TODAY/TONIGHT...MAJOR CHANGES UNDERWAY OVER WESTERN CONUS WITH                  
AMPLIFICATION OF PROGRESSIVE UPPER TROF. INTENSIFICATION OF SFC                 
LOW IS OCCURRING AS INITIAL 30H JET MAX SPREADS INTO PLAINS EARLY               
THIS MORNING. STRONGEST JET CORE ON WEST SIDE OF TROF SO                        
AMPLIFICATION OF UPPER TROF WILL CONTINUE WITH EVENTUAL                         
CLOSING/CAPTURING OF MID/SFC LOWS BY 12Z THUR OVER NEBRASKA                     
VICINITY. THIS LEAVES NWRN CORNER OF CWA UNDERNEATH A DEVELOPING                
COUPLED JET TODAY WITH LEFT EXIT REGION OF PLAINS JET INTERACTING               
WITH RRQ OF ONTARIO JET CORE. AN AREA OF COOLING CLOUD TOPS IS                  
OCCURRING JUST NW OF CWA AS LARGE SCALE ASCENT INCREASES. HAVE KEPT             
HIGHEST POPS OVER WRN CWA THROUGH 18Z...THEN SPREAD HIGHER POPS                 
EAST TOWARDS TWIN PORTS THIS AFTERNOON. LATEST 4KM NMM/WRF SIM                  
REFL PRODUCT SUGGESTS INCREASING CORRIDOR OF CONVECTION ALONG ST                
CROIX VALLEY TO NORTH SHORE. PRECIP SHOULD EXPAND TONIGHT AS AREA               
COMES UNDER INCREASING DIFFLUENCE OF MID LVL TROF. MARINE LAYER                 
WILL DEEPEN ALONG SUPERIOR AS ONSHORE WINDS UNDERCUT WARM MOIST                 
AIR ALOFT.                                                                      
THURSDAY...MID LVL CLOSED LOW DEEPENS AS MAIN JET CORE SWINGS OUT               
OF ROCKIES. WELL DEFINED DRY SLOT/TROWAL ROTATES NE TOWARDS CWA BY              
LATE IN THE DAY. MDLS HAVE TIMING DIFFERENCES SO TOUGH TO BE TOO                
SPECIFIC ON MAIN CONVEYOR BELT OF MSTR. WILL NEED TO MONITOR SVR                
POTENTIAL AS MDL SUGGESTS LOW CAPE/MDT 0-6KM BULK SHEAR ENVIRONMENT             
WILL DEVELOP.                                                                   
EXTENDED...FRID THRU SUN...FCST STILL RELATIVELY UNCHANGED WITH RAIN            
TO SNOW TRANSITION DEVELOPING FRIDAY ACROSS WRN CWA. SOME CONCERN               
THAT INTENSITY OF MID LVL LOW MAY PROMOTE ENOUGH COOLING OF DEEP                
LAYER THERMAL FIELD TO MIX SNOW WITH RAIN OVER PARTS OF SRN/SERN                
CWA EARLIER THAN EXPECTED. GIVEN UNCERTAINTY OF MID LVL                         
PLACEMENT/STRENGTH WILL LEAVE JUST LIQUID FOR NOW. COLD AIR RUSHES              
IN FRIDAY EVENING ENSURING CHANGEOVER TO SNOW. SOME ACCUMULATION                
POSSIBLE AND WILL DETAIL IN LATER FCSTS.                                        
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
VFR CIGS WILL GRADUALLY GIVE WAY TO MVFR CIGS WITH THE                          
ONSET OF THE NEXT ROUND OF PCPN LATER TODAY. VSBYS MAY OCCASIONALLY             
DROP INTO THE MVFR RANGE IN THE VICINITY OF TSRA. GUSTY SFC WINDS               
MAY ALSO ACCOMPANY THE STRONGER STORMS.                                         
&&                                                                              
POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                             
DLH  61  50  52  41 /  70  80  80  60                                           
INL  56  48  48  37 /  70  80  80  70                                           
BRD  63  51  51  36 /  70  80  80  60                                           
HYR  65  53  57  41 /  50  80  80  60                                           
ASX  64  51  57  43 /  50  80  80  60                                           
&&                                                                              
.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
MN...NONE.                                                                      
WI...NONE.                                                                      
LS...NONE.                                                                      
$$                                                                              
CANNON/GSF                                                                      
</pre> mn                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE                                            
611 PM CST WED NOV 5 2008                                                       
.AVIATION...00Z TAF. KGRI AREA WILL BE INFLUENCED BY STRONG UPPER               
LEVEL LOW PRESSURE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD...WITH MVFR CIGS AND             
VSBYS DEVELOPING BY THURSDAY MORNING AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE                 
DAY. FEW SHOWERS WEST OF KEAR ATTM...APPEAR AS THOUGH THEY WON/T                
BE AN ISSUE FOR THE KGRI AREA THIS EVENING...SO I LEFT THE TAF                  
DRY. KGRI AREA WILL EXPERIENCE VFR CIGS TONIGHT...BUT DO EXPECT                 
LOWER MVFR CIGS TO SPREAD SOUTHEAST DURING THE DAY THURSDAY AS THE              
WRAP AROUND PRECIPITATION MOVES INTO THE AREA. STRONG                           
WEST/NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BE STEADY TONIGHT...BUT PICK UP AGAIN BY              
MID MORNING THURSDAY AS SHOWERY PRECIPITATION OVERTAKES THE AREA.               
WINDS WILL RANGE FROM 25 TO 35KTS THROUGHOUT THE DAY.                           
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 317 PM CST WED NOV 5 2008/                          
SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...COLD FRONT HAS                    
SLIPPED EAST FASTER THAN EARLIER PREDICTED...THEREFORE PULLED THE               
RUG OUT FROM POPS IN THE EAST CWA. WRAP AROUND WILL EVENTUALLY                  
WORK IN TONIGHT...THURSDAY AND LINGER THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. DOES              
NOT LOOK LIKE VERY MUCH PRECIPITATION AND SNOW AMOUNTS WILL BE                  
LOW. MODELS WERE A BIT ALARMING FROM 06Z RUNS IN REGARD TO                      
POSSIBLE WIND SPEEDS...BUT 12Z RUNS HAVE SHOWN ABOUT A 10 KT                    
REDUCTION...FITTING MORE COMFORTABLY INTO A WIND ADVISORY SCENARIO              
FOR THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT...INSTEAD OF A HIGH WIND WATCH.                     
FOR PRECIPITATION CHANCES...LOOKS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS                       
FORECAST...BUT DID EXTEND LOW CHANCES A BIT FARTHER TO THE SOUTH.               
RE0RIENTED THE SNOW GRIDS A TAD. LOWERED TEMPERATURES A BIT MORE                
FOR THURSDAY HIGHS. HIGHS WILL NOT GO ANYWHERE ON THURSDAY WITH                 
STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION AND PLENTY OF SKY COVER. MAY BE                       
TEMPORARY BOUTS OF REDUCED VISIBILITY WITH SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS               
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...BUT FOR NOW IT DOES NOT LOOK LIKE IT              
WILL BE ENOUGH OF A FACTOR TO INTRODUCE A WINTER WEATHER PRODUCT                
AT THIS TIME. THE MAIN HAZARD WILL BE THE WIND FROM THE NORTHWEST.              
COULD BE A BIT STRONG EXTENDING INTO FRIDAY MORNING...BUT WE CAN                
VISIT THIS LATER AS WE BECOME MORE CONFIDENT. I TENDED TO LIKE THE              
RUC FOR THIS EVENING...THEN LEAN MORE TOWARD A NAM SCENARIO FOR                 
THE PRECIP FIELD FOR THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT.                              
LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.  THE CENTER OF THE POTENT                 
UPPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE LOCATED NEAR THE MINNESOTA AND                
IOWA BORDER ON FRIDAY MORNING.  MODELS DIFFER ON WHETHER OR NOT                 
WRAPAROUND SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES WILL CONTINUE FRIDAY MORNING                
WITH THE GFS MORE ROBUST WITH THIS THAN THE NAM...BUT HAVE CONTINUED            
TO MENTION THE POTENTIAL IN OUR NORTHEAST CWA FOR THE MORNING.                  
LITTLE IF ANY SNOW ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED FRIDAY MORNING.   WINDS             
WILL STILL REMAIN STRONG FROM THE NORTHWEST THROUGH AT LEAST THE                
FIRST HALF OF THE DAY IN A STILL TIGHT SURFACE GRADIENT...UNTIL THE             
SYSTEM LIFTS FARTHER TO THE NORTHEAST AND THE GRADIENT RELAXES.                 
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND THE FRONT ON SATURDAY AND A COOL                 
AIRMASS REMAINS IN PLACE.  MODELS DIVERGE OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO             
NEXT WEEK WITH THE NEXT COUPLE OF SYSTEMS.  THE GFS BACKS IN COLDER             
AIR AND DEVELOPS A FRONTOGENETIC BAND OF PRECIPITATION POSSIBLY                 
BEGINNING AS EARLY AS SATURDAY NIGHT...BUT MORE SO INTO THE SUNDAY              
PERIOD.  THE GFS TEMPERATURE PROFILE IS MUCH COOLER THAN THE ECMWF              
AND SUGGESTS POTENTIAL FOR SOME SNOW.  THE 00Z ECMWF DEVELOPS THE               
PCPN SATURDAY NIGHT TO OUR WEST IN THE HIGH PLAINS IN THE UPSLOPE               
FLOW CONDITIONS...WITH AN OVERALL WARMER/LIQUID TEMPERATURE                     
PROFILE.  THE GEM ALSO SUGGESTS THE POTENTIAL FOR PCPN ON SUNDAY AND            
FEEL BEST BET IS TO MAINTAIN THE STATUS QUO OF LOW POPS FOR NOW                 
UNTIL MODELS COME INTO MORE AGREEMENT.  AND NOW...THE 12Z ECMWF                 
SOLUTION HAS COME AROUND TO MORE OF THE GFS/GEM SOLUTIONS...BUT                 
HOLDS ONTO A WARMER TEMP PROFILE.                                               
ON MONDAY OF NEXT WEEK...A CLOSED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS PROGGED TO             
MOVE EAST ALONG THE SOUTHERN TIER STATES AND LIFT ACROSS OKLAHOMA               
AND KANSAS THRU MONDAY NIGHT.  THE ECMWF FAVORS A STRONGER SOLUTION             
VS THE GFS WHICH FILLS THE SYSTEM AS IT MOVES INTO THE PLAINS.  THE             
GFS IS ALSO COLDER WITH ITS TEMP PROFILE SUGGESTING THE POTENTIAL               
FOR MIXED PCPN OR SNOW...WHEREAS THE ECMWF SUGGESTS MORE OF A                   
RAINFALL EVENT.  HAVE MAINTAINED POPS FOR MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT               
WITH THE INCREASING ISENTROPIC LIFT AND POTENTIAL FOR DEFORMATION               
PCPN.  HAVE KEPT PCPN AS RAIN INITIALLY WITH A R/S MIX AS TEMPS COOL            
ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE SYSTEM MONDAY NIGHT.  THE 12Z ECMWF NOW HAS             
A MORE SOUTHERN TRACK THAN ITS PREVIOUS RUN WHICH SUGGESTS EVEN                 
LESSER OF A CHC FOR PCPN IN OUR CWA...BUT WILL NEED TO WATCH.                   
THE FORECAST DRIES FOR THE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY PERIODS.  OVERALL              
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE EXTENDED HAVE SWUNG TOWARD THE COLDER                  
DIRECTION WITH READINGS BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS.                                 
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1246 PM CST WED NOV 5 2008/                          
AVIATION...18Z KGRI TAF. COLD FRONT IS IN THE PROCESS OF MOVING                 
THROUGH THE AREA AND SHOULD KEEP THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT OFF TO                
THE EAST OF THE TERMINAL. LOWER CEILINGS ASSOCIATED WITH WRAP                   
AROUND MOISTURE LOOKS LIKE IT IS ON ITS WAY LATER ON THIS                       
AFTERNOON/TONIGHT. MAY BE A REDUCTION IN VISIBILITY TO MVFR VERY                
LATE IN THE FORECAST IF PRECIPITATION PICKS UP A BIT MORE...BUT                 
LEFT OUT OF THE FORECAST SINCE TIMING WOULD BE DIFFICULT. WIND                  
SHOULD REACH ADVISORY LEVEL DURING THE MORNING OUT OF THE WEST                  
NORTHWEST.                                                                      
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 412 AM CST WED NOV 5 2008/                           
DISCUSSION...DEFINITELY NOT A QUIET FORECAST FOR THE SHORT TERM                 
PERIOD THROUGH FRIDAY...AS PRECIPITATION CHANCES MAKE A RETURN.                 
THIS IS CAUSED BY AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH/LOW PRESSURE                            
SYSTEM...WHICH 00Z UPPER AIR OBSERVATION DATA AND CURRENT                       
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOW OVER THE ROCKIES. AHEAD OF THIS TROUGH AT                
THE SURFACE...CURRENT ANALYSIS SHOWS LOW PRESSURE/TROUGH DRAPED                 
ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS. AS EXPECTED...A FEW SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED              
IN ASSOCIATION WITH 40-55KT SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL NOSING INTO THE                 
AREA...AND HAVE STAYED TO THE NORTH/EAST OF THE CWA.                            
LITTLE HAS CHANGED LOOKING INTO THE REST OF TODAY...AND MODELS ARE              
IN MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT THAN A FEW DAYS AGO.  AS THE DAYTIME HOURS             
PASS...THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM BECOMES BETTER ORGANIZED AS IT               
SHIFTS EAST...AND BY THIS EVENING IS CENTERED OVER THE PANHANDLE OF             
NEBRASKA.  MEANWHILE AT THE SURFACE...THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE GETS             
PUSHED EAST ACROSS THE CWA...ALONG WITH ITS ACCOMPANYING COLD                   
FRONT. AHEAD OF THIS FRONT...WHILE STILL BREEZY...SOUTHERLY WINDS               
EXPECTED TO STAY IN THE 15 TO 25 MPH RANGE. WITH THE FRONT PASSING              
THROUGH DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS...THIS LEAVES A GRADIENT WITH                
HIGH TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE CWA...WITH WESTERN AREAS EXPECTED TO               
PEAK IN THE LOWER 60S...AND AREAS AHEAD OF THE FRONT IN THE EAST                
IN THE LOWER 70S. THE FRONT IS ALSO THE FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORM                  
DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...BUT UNCERTAINTIES REMAIN               
AS TO JUST HOW MUCH OF OUR CWA ACTUALLY SEES ANY ACTION. MODEL                  
CONTINUE TO BE IN GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING THE FRONT AT 00Z TONIGHT               
RIGHT ON THE EASTERN BORDER OF THE CWA. UPPED POPS A BIT...BUT                  
DIDN/T EXPAND VERY FAR WEST...MAINLY AREAS EAST OF HIGHWAY 281.                 
THERE CONTINUES TO BE THE POSSIBILITY THAT SOME THUNDERSTORMS MAY               
BECOME STRONG/SEVERE...AS MODELS SHOW GOOD SHEAR AND INSTABILITY                
NEAR 1000 J/KG. DURING THE EVENING HOURS...TAPERED BACK POPS A BIT              
AS ANYTHING THAT DEVELOPS IS EXPECTED TO QUICKLY MOVE OFF TO THE                
EAST.                                                                           
LOOKING TO OVERNIGHT TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...ANY CHANCES OF                  
PRECIPITATION THE CWA SEES WILL COME WITH ANY LINGERING                         
SHOWERS/THUNDER EARLY ON...WITH THE SOURCE LATER TONIGHT AND INTO               
THURSDAY BEING WITH MOISTURE WRAPPING AROUND THE BACKSIDE OF THE LOW            
PRESSURE SYSTEM.  MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE PATH OF THE                 
LOW...WHICH CROSSES THROUGH NORTHERN NEBRASKA.  THIS PATH LIMITS THE            
AREAL EXTENT OF PRECIPITATION IN OUR CWA...WITH CHANCES DROPPING                
SIGNIFICANTLY HEADING SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 80. FELT INHERITED POPS               
HAD A GOOD HANDLE ON THE PROGRESSION AND ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS WERE            
MADE.  AS THE SYSTEM MOVES EAST...ALONG WITH MOISTURE GETTING PULLED            
SOUTH INTO THE CWA...SO DOES COLDER AIR.  EVEN STARTING LATER                   
TONIGHT/EARLY THURSDAY MORNING...NORTHERN AREAS COULD SEE A                     
RAIN/SNOW MIX...WHICH WILL EXPAND A BIT FURTHER SOUTH DURING THE DAY            
AS MORE COLD ARE BUILDS IN.  NOT EXPECTING SIGNIFICANT                          
ACCUMULATIONS...AS BEST MOISTURE/FORCING REMAINS TO THE NORTH...BUT             
A DUSTING TO NEAR A HALF INCH IS POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS.                
BIG CONCERN FOR THURSDAY LIES WITH WINDS.  AS THE STORM SYSTEM                  
SHIFTS EAST...NORTHWESTERLY WINDS ON THE BACKSIDE GET CRANKED UP AS             
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS UP AND MIXING IMPROVES.  HIGHEST                 
WINDS LOOK TO REMAIN TO OUR WEST...BUT THERE LOOKS TO BE A GOOD                 
CHANCE FOR SOLID ADV LEVEL WINDS...WITH GUSTS NEAR 50 MPH NOT OUT OF            
THE QUESTION. WITH THIS BEING IN THE THIRD PERIOD AND WITH                      
AGREEMENT AMONG SURROUNDING OFFICES...WILL CONTINUE MENTION IN                  
HWO AND LET DAY SHIFT GET ANOTHER MODEL RUN TO LOOK AT TO NAIL                  
DOWN THE EXACT LOCATION/TIME. WITH THE STRONG WINDS...AND                       
POSSIBILITY OF LIGHT SNOW...COULD CAUSE REDUCED VISIBILITIES IN                 
THE NORTH. SNOW DOESN/T LOOK TO BE HEAVY ENOUGH AT THIS TIME TO                 
CAUSE SIGNIFICANT PROBLEMS...BUT THE AREA WILL BE CLOSELY WATCHED.              
THINGS START TO REALLY WIND DOWN THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH                          
LITTLE/NOTHING EXPECTED BY FRIDAY MORNING...WITH THE REST OF                    
FRIDAY AND INTO THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND REMAINING DRY. AS                 
FAR AS TEMPERATURES GO...THUR/FRI HIGHS EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM                  
RIGHT AROUND 40 NORTH TO NEAR 50 SOUTH...WITH SAT A DEGREE OR TWO               
WARMER.                                                                         
&&                                                                              
.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
NE...WIND ADVISORY FROM 6 AM THURSDAY TO 6 AM CST FRIDAY FOR                    
     NEZ039>041-046>049-060>064-072>077-082>087.                                
KS...WIND ADVISORY FROM 6 AM THURSDAY TO 6 AM CST FRIDAY FOR                    
     KSZ005>007-017>019.                                                        
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</pre> ne                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE                                            
317 PM CST WED NOV 5 2008                                                       
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...COLD FRONT HAS                   
SLIPPED EAST FASTER THAN EARLIER PREDICTED...THEREFORE PULLED THE               
RUG OUT FROM POPS IN THE EAST CWA. WRAP AROUND WILL EVENTUALLY                  
WORK IN TONIGHT...THURSDAY AND LINGER THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. DOES              
NOT LOOK LIKE VERY MUCH PRECIPITATION AND SNOW AMOUNTS WILL BE                  
LOW. MODELS WERE A BIT ALARMING FROM 06Z RUNS IN REGARD TO                      
POSSIBLE WIND SPEEDS...BUT 12Z RUNS HAVE SHOWN ABOUT A 10 KT                    
REDUCTION...FITTING MORE COMFORTABLY INTO A WIND ADVISORY SCENARIO              
FOR THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT...INSTEAD OF A HIGH WIND WATCH.                     
FOR PRECIPITATION CHANCES...LOOKS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS                       
FORECAST...BUT DID EXTEND LOW CHANCES A BIT FARTHER TO THE SOUTH.               
RE0RIENTED THE SNOW GRIDS A TAD. LOWERED TEMPERATURES A BIT MORE                
FOR THURSDAY HIGHS. HIGHS WILL NOT GO ANYWHERE ON THURSDAY WITH                 
STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION AND PLENTY OF SKY COVER. MAY BE                       
TEMPORARY BOUTS OF REDUCED VISIBILITY WITH SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS               
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...BUT FOR NOW IT DOES NOT LOOK LIKE IT              
WILL BE ENOUGH OF A FACTOR TO INTRODUCE A WINTER WEATHER PRODUCT                
AT THIS TIME. THE MAIN HAZARD WILL BE THE WIND FROM THE NORTHWEST.              
COULD BE A BIT STRONG EXTENDING INTO FRIDAY MORNING...BUT WE CAN                
VISIT THIS LATER AS WE BECOME MORE CONFIDENT. I TENDED TO LIKE THE              
RUC FOR THIS EVENING...THEN LEAN MORE TOWARD A NAM SCENARIO FOR                 
THE PRECIP FIELD FOR THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT.                              
.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.  THE CENTER OF THE POTENT                
UPPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE LOCATED NEAR THE MINNESOTA AND                
IOWA BORDER ON FRIDAY MORNING.  MODELS DIFFER ON WHETHER OR NOT                 
WRAPAROUND SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES WILL CONTINUE FRIDAY MORNING                
WITH THE GFS MORE ROBUST WITH THIS THAN THE NAM...BUT HAVE CONTINUED            
TO MENTION THE POTENTIAL IN OUR NORTHEAST CWA FOR THE MORNING.                  
LITTLE IF ANY SNOW ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED FRIDAY MORNING.   WINDS             
WILL STILL REMAIN STRONG FROM THE NORTHWEST THROUGH AT LEAST THE                
FIRST HALF OF THE DAY IN A STILL TIGHT SURFACE GRADIENT...UNTIL THE             
SYSTEM LIFTS FARTHER TO THE NORTHEAST AND THE GRADIENT RELAXES.                 
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND THE FRONT ON SATURDAY AND A COOL                 
AIRMASS REMAINS IN PLACE.  MODELS DIVERGE OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO             
NEXT WEEK WITH THE NEXT COUPLE OF SYSTEMS.  THE GFS BACKS IN COLDER             
AIR AND DEVELOPS A FRONTOGENETIC BAND OF PRECIPITATION POSSIBLY                 
BEGINNING AS EARLY AS SATURDAY NIGHT...BUT MORE SO INTO THE SUNDAY              
PERIOD.  THE GFS TEMPERATURE PROFILE IS MUCH COOLER THAN THE ECMWF              
AND SUGGESTS POTENTIAL FOR SOME SNOW.  THE 00Z ECMWF DEVELOPS THE               
PCPN SATURDAY NIGHT TO OUR WEST IN THE HIGH PLAINS IN THE UPSLOPE               
FLOW CONDITIONS...WITH AN OVERALL WARMER/LIQUID TEMPERATURE                     
PROFILE.  THE GEM ALSO SUGGESTS THE POTENTIAL FOR PCPN ON SUNDAY AND            
FEEL BEST BET IS TO MAINTAIN THE STATUS QUO OF LOW POPS FOR NOW                 
UNTIL MODELS COME INTO MORE AGREEMENT.  AND NOW...THE 12Z ECMWF                 
SOLUTION HAS COME AROUND TO MORE OF THE GFS/GEM SOLUTIONS...BUT                 
HOLDS ONTO A WARMER TEMP PROFILE.                                               
ON MONDAY OF NEXT WEEK...A CLOSED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS PROGGED TO             
MOVE EAST ALONG THE SOUTHERN TIER STATES AND LIFT ACROSS OKLAHOMA               
AND KANSAS THRU MONDAY NIGHT.  THE ECMWF FAVORS A STRONGER SOLUTION             
VS THE GFS WHICH FILLS THE SYSTEM AS IT MOVES INTO THE PLAINS.  THE             
GFS IS ALSO COLDER WITH ITS TEMP PROFILE SUGGESTING THE POTENTIAL               
FOR MIXED PCPN OR SNOW...WHEREAS THE ECMWF SUGGESTS MORE OF A                   
RAINFALL EVENT.  HAVE MAINTAINED POPS FOR MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT               
WITH THE INCREASING ISENTROPIC LIFT AND POTENTIAL FOR DEFORMATION               
PCPN.  HAVE KEPT PCPN AS RAIN INITIALLY WITH A R/S MIX AS TEMPS COOL            
ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE SYSTEM MONDAY NIGHT.  THE 12Z ECMWF NOW HAS             
A MORE SOUTHERN TRACK THAN ITS PREVIOUS RUN WHICH SUGGESTS EVEN                 
LESSER OF A CHC FOR PCPN IN OUR CWA...BUT WILL NEED TO WATCH.                   
THE FORECAST DRIES FOR THE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY PERIODS.  OVERALL              
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE EXTENDED HAVE SWUNG TOWARD THE COLDER                  
DIRECTION WITH READINGS BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS.                                 
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1246 PM CST WED NOV 5 2008/                         
AVIATION...18Z KGRI TAF. COLD FRONT IS IN THE PROCESS OF MOVING                 
THROUGH THE AREA AND SHOULD KEEP THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT OFF TO                
THE EAST OF THE TERMINAL. LOWER CEILINGS ASSOCIATED WITH WRAP                   
AROUND MOISTURE LOOKS LIKE IT IS ON ITS WAY LATER ON THIS                       
AFTERNOON/TONIGHT. MAY BE A REDUCTION IN VISIBILITY TO MVFR VERY                
LATE IN THE FORECAST IF PRECIPITATION PICKS UP A BIT MORE...BUT                 
LEFT OUT OF THE FORECAST SINCE TIMING WOULD BE DIFFICULT. WIND                  
SHOULD REACH ADVISORY LEVEL DURING THE MORNING OUT OF THE WEST                  
NORTHWEST.                                                                      
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 412 AM CST WED NOV 5 2008/                           
DISCUSSION...DEFINITELY NOT A QUIET FORECAST FOR THE SHORT TERM                 
PERIOD THROUGH FRIDAY...AS PRECIPITATION CHANCES MAKE A RETURN.                 
THIS IS CAUSED BY AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH/LOW PRESSURE                            
SYSTEM...WHICH 00Z UPPER AIR OBSERVATION DATA AND CURRENT                       
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOW OVER THE ROCKIES. AHEAD OF THIS TROUGH AT                
THE SURFACE...CURRENT ANALYSIS SHOWS LOW PRESSURE/TROUGH DRAPED                 
ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS. AS EXPECTED...A FEW SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED              
IN ASSOCIATION WITH 40-55KT SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL NOSING INTO THE                 
AREA...AND HAVE STAYED TO THE NORTH/EAST OF THE CWA.                            
LITTLE HAS CHANGED LOOKING INTO THE REST OF TODAY...AND MODELS ARE              
IN MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT THAN A FEW DAYS AGO.  AS THE DAYTIME HOURS             
PASS...THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM BECOMES BETTER ORGANIZED AS IT               
SHIFTS EAST...AND BY THIS EVENING IS CENTERED OVER THE PANHANDLE OF             
NEBRASKA.  MEANWHILE AT THE SURFACE...THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE GETS             
PUSHED EAST ACROSS THE CWA...ALONG WITH ITS ACCOMPANYING COLD                   
FRONT. AHEAD OF THIS FRONT...WHILE STILL BREEZY...SOUTHERLY WINDS               
EXPECTED TO STAY IN THE 15 TO 25 MPH RANGE. WITH THE FRONT PASSING              
THROUGH DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS...THIS LEAVES A GRADIENT WITH                
HIGH TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE CWA...WITH WESTERN AREAS EXPECTED TO               
PEAK IN THE LOWER 60S...AND AREAS AHEAD OF THE FRONT IN THE EAST                
IN THE LOWER 70S. THE FRONT IS ALSO THE FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORM                  
DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...BUT UNCERTAINTIES REMAIN               
AS TO JUST HOW MUCH OF OUR CWA ACTUALLY SEES ANY ACTION. MODEL                  
CONTINUE TO BE IN GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING THE FRONT AT 00Z TONIGHT               
RIGHT ON THE EASTERN BORDER OF THE CWA. UPPED POPS A BIT...BUT                  
DIDN/T EXPAND VERY FAR WEST...MAINLY AREAS EAST OF HIGHWAY 281.                 
THERE CONTINUES TO BE THE POSSIBILITY THAT SOME THUNDERSTORMS MAY               
BECOME STRONG/SEVERE...AS MODELS SHOW GOOD SHEAR AND INSTABILITY                
NEAR 1000 J/KG. DURING THE EVENING HOURS...TAPERED BACK POPS A BIT              
AS ANYTHING THAT DEVELOPS IS EXPECTED TO QUICKLY MOVE OFF TO THE                
EAST.                                                                           
LOOKING TO OVERNIGHT TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...ANY CHANCES OF                  
PRECIPITATION THE CWA SEES WILL COME WITH ANY LINGERING                         
SHOWERS/THUNDER EARLY ON...WITH THE SOURCE LATER TONIGHT AND INTO               
THURSDAY BEING WITH MOISTURE WRAPPING AROUND THE BACKSIDE OF THE LOW            
PRESSURE SYSTEM.  MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE PATH OF THE                 
LOW...WHICH CROSSES THROUGH NORTHERN NEBRASKA.  THIS PATH LIMITS THE            
AREAL EXTENT OF PRECIPITATION IN OUR CWA...WITH CHANCES DROPPING                
SIGNIFICANTLY HEADING SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 80. FELT INHERITED POPS               
HAD A GOOD HANDLE ON THE PROGRESSION AND ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS WERE            
MADE.  AS THE SYSTEM MOVES EAST...ALONG WITH MOISTURE GETTING PULLED            
SOUTH INTO THE CWA...SO DOES COLDER AIR.  EVEN STARTING LATER                   
TONIGHT/EARLY THURSDAY MORNING...NORTHERN AREAS COULD SEE A                     
RAIN/SNOW MIX...WHICH WILL EXPAND A BIT FURTHER SOUTH DURING THE DAY            
AS MORE COLD ARE BUILDS IN.  NOT EXPECTING SIGNIFICANT                          
ACCUMULATIONS...AS BEST MOISTURE/FORCING REMAINS TO THE NORTH...BUT             
A DUSTING TO NEAR A HALF INCH IS POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS.                
BIG CONCERN FOR THURSDAY LIES WITH WINDS.  AS THE STORM SYSTEM                  
SHIFTS EAST...NORTHWESTERLY WINDS ON THE BACKSIDE GET CRANKED UP AS             
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS UP AND MIXING IMPROVES.  HIGHEST                 
WINDS LOOK TO REMAIN TO OUR WEST...BUT THERE LOOKS TO BE A GOOD                 
CHANCE FOR SOLID ADV LEVEL WINDS...WITH GUSTS NEAR 50 MPH NOT OUT OF            
THE QUESTION. WITH THIS BEING IN THE THIRD PERIOD AND WITH                      
AGREEMENT AMONG SURROUNDING OFFICES...WILL CONTINUE MENTION IN                  
HWO AND LET DAY SHIFT GET ANOTHER MODEL RUN TO LOOK AT TO NAIL                  
DOWN THE EXACT LOCATION/TIME. WITH THE STRONG WINDS...AND                       
POSSIBILITY OF LIGHT SNOW...COULD CAUSE REDUCED VISIBILITIES IN                 
THE NORTH. SNOW DOESN/T LOOK TO BE HEAVY ENOUGH AT THIS TIME TO                 
CAUSE SIGNIFICANT PROBLEMS...BUT THE AREA WILL BE CLOSELY WATCHED.              
THINGS START TO REALLY WIND DOWN THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH                          
LITTLE/NOTHING EXPECTED BY FRIDAY MORNING...WITH THE REST OF                    
FRIDAY AND INTO THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND REMAINING DRY. AS                 
FAR AS TEMPERATURES GO...THUR/FRI HIGHS EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM                  
RIGHT AROUND 40 NORTH TO NEAR 50 SOUTH...WITH SAT A DEGREE OR TWO               
WARMER.                                                                         
&&                                                                              
.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
NE...WIND ADVISORY FROM 6 AM THURSDAY TO 6 AM CST FRIDAY FOR                    
     NEZ039>041-046>049-060>064-072>077-082>087.                                
KS...WIND ADVISORY FROM 6 AM THURSDAY TO 6 AM CST FRIDAY FOR                    
     KSZ005>007-017>019.                                                        
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
HEINLEIN/FAY                                                                    
</pre> ne                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE                                        
144 PM CST WED NOV 5 2008                                                       
.UPDATE...                                                                      
SENT EARLY AFTERNOON UPDATE TO ACCOUNT FOR SFC LOW FARTHERN NORTH               
AND DRIER AIR INTO THE NW CWA AND WARMER TEMPS THERE.                           
&&                                                                              
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
18Z SOUNDING IS IN AN SHOWS A STRONG CAPPING INVERSION AT 822MB.                
THIS CAP IS FCST TO WEAKEN AS WE HEAD TOWARD THE SECOND HALF OF                 
THE AFTERNOON. WHILE THE WRN CWA WILL BEGIN TO SEE THE DRIER                    
DEWPOINTS PUSH IN...THERE WILL BE A WINDOW FOR STORMS TO FORM                   
BEFORE THE DRIER AIR MOVES IN. THE GREATER RISK FOR SVR WX                      
CONTINUES TO BE OVR KS AND OK...HOWEVER...SVR WX IS STILL POSSIBLE              
OVR ERN NEB AND WRN IA UNTIL THAT MOISTURE IS PUSHED EAST.                      
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1058 AM CST WED NOV 5 2008/                         
UPDATE...                                                                       
UPDATED GRIDS AND PRODUCTS FOR LATEST RADAR TREND AND FORECAST CONDITIONS.      
DISCUSSION...                                                                   
LATEST SFC ANALYSIS HAS THE CNTR OF LOW PRES OVR SCNTRL SD WITH                 
A SECONDARY AREA OF LOW PRES FM SW KS INTO SE CO. SHOWERS HAVE                  
BEEN NOTED ON RADAR OVR PARTS OF ERN NEB AND SW IA. SFC DEWPOINTS               
ARE IN THE 50S. WITH DEEPER MOISTURE IN PLACE AHEAD OF THE SFC                  
FRONT AND CONTINUED H7 WAA ISO TO SCT SHOWER AND TSRA ACTIVITY                  
WILL CONTINUE. AS A STRONG UPR LEVEL JET SWINGS THRU ALONG WITH INCREASED       
MID LEVEL DYNAMICS AND DESTABILIZATION...THUNDERSTORMS ARE                      
EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE AHEAD OF THE CDFNT THIS AFTERNOON              
AND THIS EVENING. SWODY1 STILL HAS US IN THE SLIGHT RISK FOR SVR                
STORMS WITH SUPERCELLS MORE LIKELY IN KS AND MORE LINEAR                        
DEVELOPMENT WITH THE FNT FOR ERN NEB AND SW IA. WILL CONTINUE TO                
MONITOR THIS AFTERNOON DUE TO HIGH SHEAR ENVIRONMENT AND CONTINUED              
DESTABILIZATION.                                                                
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 246 AM CST WED NOV 5 2008/                           
DISCUSSION...                                                                   
TIMING AND EXTENT OF CONVECTION TODAY WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERN INITIALLY...     
THEN TEMPERATURES AND PRECIP TRANSITION LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY.               
NARROW BAND OF ELEVATED CONVECTION HAD DEVELOPED OVER THE SOUTHEAST             
CORNER OF THE CWA AFTER MIDNIGHT AND WAS MOVING OUT OF THE SW CORNER            
OF IOWA AT 08Z. THIS AREA CORRELATES WELL WITH MID LEVEL INSTABILITY            
POCKET SHOWN BY 06Z RUC WHICH CONTINUES TO SHIFT EAST OF THE AREA INTO          
CENTRAL IOWA THROUGH 12Z.                                                       
LATEST MODEL DATA SUGGEST CONVECTION MAY BE SLOW TO START IN THE                
AREA TODAY WITH FORECAST SOUNDINGS FROM THE GFS...NAM AND RUC                   
EACH SHOWING PROMINANT CAP IN PLACE THRU 18Z AND LIMITED                        
INSTABILITY IN THE MID LEVELS ABOVE THE CAP. POPS ON THE LOW END                
FOR THIS TIME PERIOD AS A RESULT. CAP ERODES DURING THE AFTERNOON               
WITH THE APPROACH OF THE FRONT BUT CAPE VALUES FROM FORECAST                    
SOUNDINGS NOT THAT IMPRESSIVE. WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY BEST POPS                 
FOR STORMS FROM THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING IN ASSOCIATION WITH              
THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.                                                            
COLD AIR SURGES IN BEHIND THE FRONT TONIGHT WITH AREA DRY SLOTTED FOR           
A TIME BEFORE THE WRAP AROUND PRECIP MOVES IN. MODELS VARY IN                   
THEIR DEPICTION OF THE SOUTHERN EXTENT OF PRECIP SO HAVE CONTINUED WITH         
A NORTH SOUTH GRADIENT FOR POPS ON THURSDAY INTO EARLY FRIDAY. SOME             
LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATION UP TO AN INCH INDICATED ACROSS NORTHERN                 
PARTS OF THE CWA IN NORTHEAST NEBRASKA BEFORE ENDING FRIDAY AFTERNOON.          
EXPECT WINDS TODAY TO STAY BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS BASED ON FORECAST              
SOUNDINGS BUT MORE STRONG WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT ON THURSDAY WILL               
HAVE TO BE CONSIDERED IN LATER FORECASTS.                                       
NO CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED PERIOD AT THIS TIME.                                 
AVIATION...                                                                     
FOR TAF SITES KOFK/KOMA/KLNK THROUGH 06/12Z.                                    
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WITH                 
STRONG SOUTH WINDS OF 15 TO 30KTS. LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR IS ALSO                 
LIKELY THROUGH 15Z AS 2000FT WINDS AVERAGE 50KTS. SCATTERED SHOWERS             
OR THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH 00Z...BUT MORE FOCUSED CHANCES            
WILL COME BETWEEN 00Z AND 06Z AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH EASTERN            
NEBRASKA.  ASSOCIATED MVFR/IFR CIGS/VSBYS IN THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE            
REPLACED BY VFR CIGS AFTER 06Z AS SURFACE WINDS BECOME WESTERLY                 
AFTER FRONTAL PASSAGE.                                                          
&&                                                                              
.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
NE...NONE.                                                                      
IA...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
ZAPOTOCNY                                                                       
</pre> ne                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE                                        
1058 AM CST WED NOV 5 2008                                                      
.UPDATE...                                                                      
UPDATED GRIDS AND PRODUCTS FOR LATEST RADAR TREND AND FORECAST CONDITIONS.      
&&                                                                              
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
LATEST SFC ANALYSIS HAS THE CNTR OF LOW PRES OVR SCNTRL SD WITH                 
A SECONDARY AREA OF LOW PRES FM SW KS INTO SE CO. SHOWERS HAVE                  
BEEN NOTED ON RADAR OVR PARTS OF ERN NEB AND SW IA. SFC DEWPOINTS               
ARE IN THE 50S. WITH DEEPER MOISTURE IN PLACE AHEAD OF THE SFC                  
FRONT AND CONTINUED H7 WAA ISO TO SCT SHOWER AND TSRA ACTIVITY                  
WILL CONTINUE. AS A STRONG UPR LEVEL JET SWINGS THRU ALONG WITH INCREASED       
MID LEVEL DYNAMICS AND DESTABILIZATION...THUNDERSTORMS ARE                      
EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE AHEAD OF THE CDFNT THIS AFTERNOON              
AND THIS EVENING. SWODY1 STILL HAS US IN THE SLIGHT RISK FOR SVR                
STORMS WITH SUPERCELLS MORE LIKELY IN KS AND MORE LINEAR                        
DEVELOPMENT WITH THE FNT FOR ERN NEB AND SW IA. WILL CONTINUE TO                
MONITOR THIS AFTERNOON DUE TO HIGH SHEAR ENVIRONMENT AND CONTINUED              
DESTABILIZATION.                                                                
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 246 AM CST WED NOV 5 2008/                          
DISCUSSION...                                                                   
TIMING AND EXTENT OF CONVECTION TODAY WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERN INITIALLY...     
THEN TEMPERATURES AND PRECIP TRANSITION LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY.               
NARROW BAND OF ELEVATED CONVECTION HAD DEVELOPED OVER THE SOUTHEAST             
CORNER OF THE CWA AFTER MIDNIGHT AND WAS MOVING OUT OF THE SW CORNER            
OF IOWA AT 08Z. THIS AREA CORRELATES WELL WITH MID LEVEL INSTABILITY            
POCKET SHOWN BY 06Z RUC WHICH CONTINUES TO SHIFT EAST OF THE AREA INTO          
CENTRAL IOWA THROUGH 12Z.                                                       
LATEST MODEL DATA SUGGEST CONVECTION MAY BE SLOW TO START IN THE                
AREA TODAY WITH FORECAST SOUNDINGS FROM THE GFS...NAM AND RUC                   
EACH SHOWING PROMINANT CAP IN PLACE THRU 18Z AND LIMITED                        
INSTABILITY IN THE MID LEVELS ABOVE THE CAP. POPS ON THE LOW END                
FOR THIS TIME PERIOD AS A RESULT. CAP ERODES DURING THE AFTERNOON               
WITH THE APPROACH OF THE FRONT BUT CAPE VALUES FROM FORECAST                    
SOUNDINGS NOT THAT IMPRESSIVE. WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY BEST POPS                 
FOR STORMS FROM THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING IN ASSOCIATION WITH              
THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.                                                            
COLD AIR SURGES IN BEHIND THE FRONT TONIGHT WITH AREA DRY SLOTTED FOR           
A TIME BEFORE THE WRAP AROUND PRECIP MOVES IN. MODELS VARY IN                   
THEIR DEPICTION OF THE SOUTHERN EXTENT OF PRECIP SO HAVE CONTINUED WITH         
A NORTH SOUTH GRADIENT FOR POPS ON THURSDAY INTO EARLY FRIDAY. SOME             
LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATION UP TO AN INCH INDICATED ACROSS NORTHERN                 
PARTS OF THE CWA IN NORTHEAST NEBRASKA BEFORE ENDING FRIDAY AFTERNOON.          
EXPECT WINDS TODAY TO STAY BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS BASED ON FORECAST              
SOUNDINGS BUT MORE STRONG WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT ON THURSDAY WILL               
HAVE TO BE CONSIDERED IN LATER FORECASTS.                                       
NO CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED PERIOD AT THIS TIME.                                 
AVIATION...                                                                     
FOR TAF SITES KOFK/KOMA/KLNK THROUGH 06/12Z.                                    
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WITH                 
STRONG SOUTH WINDS OF 15 TO 30KTS. LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR IS ALSO                 
LIKELY THROUGH 15Z AS 2000FT WINDS AVERAGE 50KTS. SCATTERED SHOWERS             
OR THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH 00Z...BUT MORE FOCUSED CHANCES            
WILL COME BETWEEN 00Z AND 06Z AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH EASTERN            
NEBRASKA.  ASSOCIATED MVFR/IFR CIGS/VSBYS IN THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE            
REPLACED BY VFR CIGS AFTER 06Z AS SURFACE WINDS BECOME WESTERLY                 
AFTER FRONTAL PASSAGE.                                                          
FOBERT/DERGAN                                                                   
&&                                                                              
.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
NE...NONE.                                                                      
IA...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
ZAPOTOCNY                                                                       
</pre> ne                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE                                        
246 AM CST WED NOV 5 2008                                                       
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
TIMING AND EXTENT OF CONVECTION TODAY WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERN INITIALLY...     
THEN TEMPERATURES AND PRECIP TRANSITION LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY.               
NARROW BAND OF ELEVATED CONVECTION HAD DEVELOPED OVER THE SOUTHEAST             
CORNER OF THE CWA AFTER MIDNIGHT AND WAS MOVING OUT OF THE SW CORNER            
OF IOWA AT 08Z. THIS AREA CORRELATES WELL WITH MID LEVEL INSTABILITY            
POCKET SHOWN BY 06Z RUC WHICH CONTINUES TO SHIFT EAST OF THE AREA INTO          
CENTRAL IOWA THROUGH 12Z.                                                       
LATEST MODEL DATA SUGGEST CONVECTION MAY BE SLOW TO START IN THE                
AREA TODAY WITH FORECAST SOUNDINGS FROM THE GFS...NAM AND RUC                   
EACH SHOWING PROMINANT CAP IN PLACE THRU 18Z AND LIMITED                        
INSTABILITY IN THE MID LEVELS ABOVE THE CAP. POPS ON THE LOW END                
FOR THIS TIME PERIOD AS A RESULT. CAP ERODES DURING THE AFTERNOON               
WITH THE APPROACH OF THE FRONT BUT CAPE VALUES FROM FORECAST                    
SOUNDINGS NOT THAT IMPRESSIVE. WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY BEST POPS                 
FOR STORMS FROM THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING IN ASSOCIATION WITH              
THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.                                                            
COLD AIR SURGES IN BEHIND THE FRONT TONIGHT WITH AREA DRY SLOTTED FOR           
A TIME BEFORE THE WRAP AROUND PRECIP MOVES IN. MODELS VARY IN                   
THEIR DEPICTION OF THE SOUTHERN EXTENT OF PRECIP SO HAVE CONTINUED WITH         
A NORTH SOUTH GRADIENT FOR POPS ON THURSDAY INTO EARLY FRIDAY. SOME             
LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATION UP TO AN INCH INDICATED ACROSS NORTHERN                 
PARTS OF THE CWA IN NORTHEAST NEBRASKA BEFORE ENDING FRIDAY AFTERNOON.          
EXPECT WINDS TODAY TO STAY BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS BASED ON FORECAST              
SOUNDINGS BUT MORE STRONG WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT ON THURSDAY WILL               
HAVE TO BE CONSIDERED IN LATER FORECASTS.                                       
NO CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED PERIOD AT THIS TIME.                                 
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
FOR TAF SITES KOFK/KOMA/KLNK THROUGH 06/12Z.                                    
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WITH                 
STRONG SOUTH WINDS OF 15 TO 30KTS. LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR IS ALSO                 
LIKELY THROUGH 15Z AS 2000FT WINDS AVERAGE 50KTS. SCATTERED SHOWERS             
OR THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH 00Z...BUT MORE FOCUSED CHANCES            
WILL COME BETWEEN 00Z AND 06Z AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH EASTERN            
NEBRASKA.  ASSOCIATED MVFR/IFR CIGS/VSBYS IN THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE            
REPLACED BY VFR CIGS AFTER 06Z AS SURFACE WINDS BECOME WESTERLY                 
AFTER FRONTAL PASSAGE.                                                          
&&                                                                              
.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
NE...NONE.                                                                      
IA...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
FOBERT/DERGAN                                                                   
</pre> ne                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC                                          
1000 PM EST WED NOV 5 2008                                                      
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
DEEP LOW PRESSURE OFFSHORE FROM THE VIRGINIA CAPES...WILL MOVE                  
SLOWLY NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT AND THURSDAY...AWAY FROM NORTH CAROLINA.             
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA LATE TONIGHT AND                  
PERSIST THROUGH FRIDAY. A COLD FRONT MOVING WEST TO EAST...WILL                 
CROSS THE CAROLINAS SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE PLAINS STATES              
WILL RIDGE ACROSS THE AREA LATE SATURDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.               
ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST BY MID-WEEK.                   
&&                                                                              
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...                                                 
AS OF 9 PM WEDNESDAY...BAROTROPIC LOW OFFSHORE FROM THE VA                      
CAPES...TO SLOWLY LIFT NE OVERNIGHT AND THURSDAY. ITS CIRCULATION               
ACROSS THE AREA INVOLVING WINDS AND CLOUDS WILL LIKELY COME TO AN               
END OVERNIGHT...WITH THE COASTAL SE NC THE LAST TO OBSERVE THE                  
CLOUDS AND WINDS.                                                               
MAIN DILEMMA TONIGHT WILL BE THE POSSIBILITY OF FOG AND HOW MUCH OF             
IT. AT 1ST GLANCE...PROCEDURES USING RUC MODEL DATA INDICATE AREAS              
OF FOG WEST OF A LINE FROM ELIZABETHTOWN...WHITEVILLE...AYNOR TO                
KINGSTREE. PATCHY FOG EAST OF THIS LINE TO THE WESTERN COUNTY                   
BOUNDARIES OF PENDER...NEW HANOVER AND BRUNSWICK COUNTIES. THE FOG              
STABILITY INDEX INDICATES DENSE FOG IS A GOOD POSSIBILITY FOR THOSE             
INLAND COUNTIES...IE WEST OF A LINE FROM LUMBERTON...MARION TO                  
KINGSTREE. THE NAMBUFR SOUNDINGS FOR FLO AND LBT ARE MORE                       
REPRESENTATIVE OF A FOG/DENSE FOG OCCURRENCE FOR THURSDAY MORNING.              
ONLY TWEAKED AROUND WITH THE MINS SINCE 1/3RD OF THE AREAS LATEST               
TEMPS HAD REACHED THEIR DEWPOINTS ALREADY...AND DONT SEE MUCH IN THE            
WAY OF CAA TO LOWER THEM TOO MUCH FURTHER.                                      
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...                                  
AS OF 3 PM WEDNESDAY...500 MB HEIGHT RISES WILL OCCUR DURING                    
THURSDAY AS THE UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO LIFT AWAY FROM THE REGION.               
THE H5 RIDGE AXIS WILL PASS OVERHEAD THURSDAY NIGHT...THEN OFF THE              
COAST FRIDAY AS A LARGE UPPER LOW TRANSLATES FROM THE MID-WEST                  
TOWARD THE OH VALLEY. CLOSER TO HOME...WEAK DOWNSLOPE FLOW WILL                 
DEVELOP DURING THURSDAY WHICH WILL HELP TO SCOUR OUT ANY LINGER SCT             
LOW CLOUDS IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING LOW. LOW-LEVEL THICKNESSES              
WILL INCREASE IN THE SHORT TERM TRANSLATING INTO A PERIOD OF ABOVE              
NORMAL TEMPERATURES. HIGHS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WILL GENERALLY BE IN             
THE MID 70S. CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE FROM W-E DURING FRIDAY              
NIGHT AS THE NEXT COLD FRONT APPROACHES. LOW CONFIDENCE IN REGARDS              
TO POPS WITH THIS FEATURE...WITH ONLY SLIGHT CHANCES MAINLY FOR THE             
WESTERN ZONES LATE FRIDAY NIGHT. ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH            
THIS SYSTEM WILL MORE THAN LIKELY BE FOCUSED RIGHT ALONG THE FRONT              
COMING INTO PLAY EARLY ON IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD.                               
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...                                      
AS OF 3 PM WEDNESDAY...THE EXTENDED WILL BE HIGHLIGHTED BY THE                  
PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT SATURDAY FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE WITH YET             
ANOTHER SYSTEM AT THE END OF THE PERIOD. THIS...ALL IN ASSOCIATION              
WITH A PROGRESSIVE PATTERN AT THE MID LEVELS.                                   
THE GFS IS MORE BULLISH IN DEVELOPING AN AREA OF RAIN ACROSS THE                
AREA SATURDAY MORNING MOST LIKELY IN DUE TO INCREASED OMEGA VIA THE             
LEFT EXIT REGION OF THE 200MB JET. MOISTURE REMAINS MARGINAL AND IS             
WITH ALMOST IDENTICAL PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WHEN COMPARED                   
TO YESTERDAYS MODEL RUNS. TWEAKED POPS A BIT TO REPRESENT BETTER                
CHANCES ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES WHERE THE BEST OMEGA                   
RESIDES...OTHERWISE NO CHANGES WITH THIS SYSTEM.                                
A FAST MOVING SHORTWAVE APPROACHES THE AREA TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AT            
THE END OF THE PERIOD AND HAVE MAINTAINED THE LOW CHANCE POPS FOR               
THIS TIME. OBVIOUSLY WITH THE SYSTEM TIMED FOR THE END OF THE PERIOD            
PLUS THE FACT IT APPEARS TO BE EMBEDDED IN A FAST WESTERLY FLOW                 
CONFIDENCE IS LOW. SUNDAY AND MONDAY SHOULD BE DRY.                             
NO CHANGE TO TEMPERATURE FORECAST AS IT APPEARS READINGS WILL NOT               
STRAY A DEGREE OR TWO FROM CLIMATOLOGY.                                         
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION /02Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...                                      
LOW CLOUDS 4K-6K WRAPPING AROUND A SURFACE LOW WELL NORTHEAST OF THE            
TERMINALS STILL AFFECTING ILM AT 02Z. SKIES AT THE REMAINING                    
TERMINALS ARE CLEAR. EXPECT CLOUDS TO SCATTER OUT OF THE ILM                    
TERMINAL BY 04Z. CLEAR SKIES HAVE ALLOWED FOR PATCHY FOG TO DEVELOP.            
VISIBILITIES AT FLO HAVE VARIED FROM P6SM TO A HALF MILE OVER THE               
PAST COUPLE OF HOURS WITH A 3 KNOT WESTERLY WIND HELPING TO DISPERSE            
THE FOG. VISIBILITIES AT LBT HAVE VARIED FROM 4SM TO P6SM AND THE               
TERMINAL ALSO HAS THE SAME 3 KNOT WESTERLY WIND HELPING DISPERSE                
THE FOG. WINDS AT CRE HAVE BECOME CALM OVER THE PAST HOUR OR TWO AND            
VISIBILITIES HAVE BEGUN TO DROP THERE BUT ARE STILL P6SM. WITH THE              
SURFACE LOW FORECAST TO MOVE FURTHER AWAY FROM THE TERMINALS                    
OVERNIGHT CAN ONLY EXPECT CURRENT WIND SPEEDS TO DECREASE WHICH                 
SHOULD ALLOW FOR FURTHER FOG DEVELOPMENT. WILL FORECAST                         
PREDOMINATELY MVFR VISIBILITIES WITH IFR POSSIBLE AFTER 09Z AT                  
FLO/LBT. SINCE THE COASTAL TERMINALS SHOULD HAVE A BIT STRONGER                 
WINDS IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL FORECAST TEMPO MVFR VISIBILITIES AT            
ILM AND MYR AFTER 09Z. BUT AT CRE DUE TO LOCAL EFFECTS WILL SHOW                
PREDOMINATE MVFR VISIBILITIES WITH TEMPO IFR AFTER 09Z. VFR/CLEAR               
SKIES EXPECTED ALL TERMINALS AFTER 13Z-14Z WITH NORTHWEST WINDS                 
AROUND 10 KNOTS BECOMING SOUTHWEST AT THE COASTAL TERMINALS BY                  
AFTERNOON.                                                                      
OUTLOOK THROUGH MONDAY...VFR.                                                   
&&                                                                              
.MARINE...                                                                      
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...                                                  
AS OF 9 PM WEDNESDAY...SCEC WAS RAISED ACROSS THE SAME AMZ ZONES                
THAT A SCA EXPIRED AT 7 PM. ONLY HAD TO TWEAK WINDS UP 1 TO 3 KNOTS             
FOR THE OVERNITE GIVEN LATEST READINGS...TRENDS...MODEL DATA.                   
THE SEAS HAVE BEEN ALSO BEEN TWEAKED A FOOT OR 2 HIER...MAINLY                  
ACROSS THE NEAR SHORE. THE MAIN REASON IS THAT THE ESE SWELL AT 11              
SECOND PERIODS CONTINUES TO PUSH 3 TO 5 FOOT SEAS ACROSS THE ILM                
COASTAL WATERS. WITH ONLY A WEAK OFFSHORE WIND AFFECTING IT THROUGH             
THURSDAY...THE SWELL WILL BE SLOWER TO DETERIORATE. IN ADDITION...              
SURF REPORTS FROM WRIGHTSVILLE BEACH LATE THIS AFTERNOON INDICATED 4            
TO 5 FOOT...AND AS MUCH AS 6 FOOT AT TIMES. WITH AN ESE                         
SWELL...BASICALLY THE ENTIRE CWA COASTAL WATERS IS APT TO OBSERVE               
ALL OR PORTION OF THIS SWELL...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE SHADOW                 
EFFECTS FROM FRYING PAN SHOALS. IF IT WAS A TRUE SE SWELL...THEN THE            
SHADOW EFFECTS COULD BE NEGATED.                                                
SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...                                   
AS OF 3 PM WEDNESDAY...WINDS/SEAS WILL DIMINISH/SUBSIDE THROUGH THE             
FIRST HALF OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD...THEN BEGIN TO INCREASE/BUILD              
FRIDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT. SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO                 
RANGE FROM 4 FT AWAY FROM THE COAST TO 2 FT OR LESS INSHORE                     
THURSDAY...SUBSIDING TO 1-3 FT BY THURSDAY NIGHT. RETURN FLOW FRIDAY            
WILL CREATE A SOUTHWESTERLY FETCH ALLOWING SEAS TO BUILD BACK TO                
AROUND 4 FT BY FRIDAY NIGHT.                                                    
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...                                          
AS OF 3 PM WEDNESDAY...LITTLE CHANGE TO THE EXTENDED COASTAL WATERS             
FORECAST THIS AFTERNOON AS VERY MODEST SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL PREVAIL              
SATURDAY TRANSITIONING TO A WEAK WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW BY SUNDAY               
AFTERNOON. THIS IS THE ONLY CHANGE TO THE FORECAST AS THE PUSH                  
BEHIND THE FRONT NOW APPEARS TO BE WEAKER THAN ADVERTISED. LOOK FOR             
RANGES OF 10-15 KNOTS BUT MORE REALISTICALLY NEAR 10 KNOTS. WAVE                
SPECTRUM WILL BE COMPRISED OF A WEAK SWELL COMPONENT FROM THE                   
EAST/SOUTHEAST AND A WEAK WIND WAVE. THIS EQUATES TO THE STANDARD               
2-4 FEET.                                                                       
&&                                                                              
.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
SC...NONE.                                                                      
NC...NONE.                                                                      
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR                   
     AMZ250-252.                                                                
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SYNOPSIS...HOEHLER                                                              
NEAR TERM...HOEHLER                                                             
SHORT TERM...PFAFF                                                              
LONG TERM...KEEBLER                                                             
AVIATION...ROSS                                                                 
</pre> nc                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC                                          
130 AM EST TUE NOV 4 2008                                                       
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
LOW PRESSURE SITUATED ALONG A COASTAL TROF SE AND OFFSHORE FROM CAPE            
FEAR...WILL SLOWLY MOVE NE AFFECTING THE AREA INTO TUE. ANOTHER AREA            
OF LOW PRESSURE IS POISED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE COASTAL TROF OFFSHORE            
FROM THE SC COAST DURING TUE...AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE NE TO THE                
OFFSHORE WATERS E OF CAPE HATTERAS BY LATE WED. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE              
WILL FOLLOW THU AND FRI. THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA                
FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST DURING SAT.                                         
&&                                                                              
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...                                                 
AS OF 10 PM MONDAY...LATEST SAT IMAGERY INDICATES THE COLDEST CLOUD             
TOPS N THRU E OF THE ILM CWA. 88-D RADAR IMAGERY INDICATES THE                  
HEAVIEST PCPN UNDER THIS CLOUDINESS. MSAS AND LATEST RUC MODEL                  
INDICATE A WEAK SFC LOW LOCATED ALONG THE COASTAL TROF JUST OFFSHORE            
AND SOUTHEAST OF CAPE FEAR. EXPECT THIS LOW TO MOVE NE AND MORE OR              
LESS MESH INTO THE MEAN FLOW. MOST OF THE ACTIVITY EARLIER MORE OR              
LESS DRIVEN BY DYNAMICS ALOFT AND THE INTERACTION WITH THE COASTAL              
TROF...IE. OVERRUNNING. THIS ALL POINTS TO PCPN NOT BEING AS                    
WIDESPREAD OR CONTINUOUS OVERNIGHT. NEVERTHELESS...SHOULD BE ENOUGH             
THROUGH SUNRISE TUE TO JUSTIFY CURRENT POPS ALONG THE COAST. WILL               
HOWEVER LOWER POPS WELL INLAND AND CORRESPONDING QPF. 00Z TUE NAM AS            
OPPOSED TO 18Z MON NAM...IS BACK WITH THE MONSTER LOW OFF CAPE                  
HATTERAS ON WED...WITH SOME INJECTION OF SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE FROM              
ITS STARTING POINT IN THE BAHAMAS. ONLY TWEAKED A DEGREE OR 2 DOWN              
FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS WELL INLAND.                                                 
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...                                
AS OF 3 PM MONDAY...GUIDANCE DISAGREEMENT CONTINUES WITH THE GFS                
CONTINUING TO SHOW MUCH QUICKER EVOLUTION/MOVEMENT OF THE SYSTEM                
WHILE NAM REMAINS THE SLOWEST WITH THE ECMWF/CANADIAN IN THE                    
MIDDLE. PREFERRED THE MIDDLE OF THE ROAD SOLUTIONS THUS FORECAST                
IS IN LINE WITH THE ECMWF/CANADIAN.                                             
PROLONGED PERIOD OF ONSHORE FLOW TUE AND TUE NIGHT WILL RESULT IN               
LONG DURATION LIGHT TO MODERATE PRECIP EVENT WITH LOW LEVEL SPEED               
AND DIRECTION CONVERGENCE AND ISENTROPIC LIFT BEING THE MAIN                    
FACTORS. SFC LOW SE OF THE AREA WILL BE SLOW TO MOVE N WITH RIDGE               
PROVING TO BE A FORMIDABLE ROAD BLOCK. THE LOW WILL ONLY BE ABLE                
TO START MOVING ONCE THE 5H TROF/CUTOFF OVER THE SE CONUS STARTS                
LIFTING OUT. HIGHEST POPS WILL BE ALONG THE COAST...ESPECIALLY                  
ACROSS NC...TUE AND TUE NIGHT. INCREASED POPS ACROSS THE AREA TUE               
BASED ON LATEST TRENDS AND MOS NUMBERS WITH SLIGHT TWEAKS TO POPS               
TUE NIGHT. CLOUD COVER AND PRECIP WILL HOLD HIGHS DOWN BELOW                    
CLIMO...BUT WILL ALSO HELP KEEP LOWS 10 DEGREES OR MORE ABOVE                   
CLIMO.                                                                          
GUIDANCE IS REALLY SPLIT WED WITH GFS SUGGESTING DRYING/CLEARING                
BY MIDDAY WHILE THE NAM/ECMWF/CANADIAN ALL HOLD ONTO PRECIP IN                  
VARYING DEGREES. OVERALL DID NOT MAKE A LOT OF CHANGES TO THE                   
FORECAST FOR WED WITH MANY QUESTIONS YET UNANSWERED.                            
&&                                                                              
.CLIMATE...                                                                     
BETWEEN A HALF OF AN INCH AND ONE INCH OF RAIN HAS ALREADY FALLEN               
ACROSS PENDER...NEW HANOVER...AND BRUNSWICK COUNTIES SINCE THIS                 
MORNING. SOME AREAS RIGHT ALONG THE COAST HAVE PICKED UP MORE THAN              
AN INCH OF RAIN WHILE AREAS FARTHER INLAND HAVE ONLY MEASURED A FEW             
HUNDREDTHS. FOR A MORE DETAILED LOOK AT RAINFALL TOTALS THROUGH 5 PM            
REFER TO OUR PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT (PNS). YOU CAN FIND THIS              
BY GOING TO OUR WEBSITE AT WEATHER.GOV/ILM. YOU WILL FIND THE PNS               
UNDER THE TOP STORIES OF THE DAY SECTION LOCATED AT THE TOP OF THE              
PAGE.                                                                           
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...                                         
AS OF 3 PM MONDAY...SOME LINGERING MOISTURE MAY WRAP AROUND THE                 
EXITING LOW AS IT MOVES OFF TO THE NORTH ON THURS. OVERALL EXPECTING            
DRY DAY ON THURS WITH SOME LINGERING CLOUDS POSSIBLE THROUGH THE                
MORNING HOURS. WEAK RIDGING WILL RESIDE OVER AREA INTO EARLY FRI IN             
AN OFFSHORE W-NW FLOW. THIS SHOULD GIVE US DRY WEATHER INTO FRI AFTN            
WITH A RETURN FLOW OF SOUTHWEST WINDS SETTING UP. THEREFORE MAY SEE             
AN INCREASE IN MID TO HIGH CLOUDS THROUGH LATE FRIDAY. LATEST                   
MOISTURE PROFILES SHOW A PRONOUNCED PERIOD OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE               
ASSOCIATED WITH COLD FRONT...BUT FOR A BRIEF PERIOD ONLY. FOR NOW               
LOOKS LIKE BEST SHOT OF PCP WITH THIS FRONT WILL TAKE PLACE BETWEEN             
06Z AND 18Z ON SAT....BUT IT IS TOO FAR OUT TO SAY WITH ANY HIGH                
LEVEL OF CONFIDENCE. H5 TROUGH MOVES OVER EAST COAST AND AXIS CLEARS            
THE COAST BY SUN MORNING. SAT SHOULD BE A TRANSITIONAL DAY WITH                 
CLOUDS AND PCP ENDING THROUGH THE DAY. COLD AND DRY HIGH PRESSURE               
TAKES HOLD SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.                                                  
THURSDAY INTO FRI WEAK RIDGING WILL TAKE HOLD WITH A GREATER AMOUNT             
OF SUNSHINE AND TEMPS SHOULD REACH INTO THE MID 70S. BY SAT COLD                
FRONT MOVES THROUGH AREA AND CLOUDS AND PCP SHOULD KNOCK TEMPS BACK             
TO LOWER 70S. LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES AND 850 TEMPS SHOW A SHARP                  
DECLINE OVERNIGHT SAT INTO SUN MORNING. THEREFORE EXPECTING COLDER              
WEATHER FOR THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK WITH TEMPS ONLY REACHING                
INTO THE 60S.                                                                   
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...                                       
PRECIPITATION: (THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY)...A COASTAL TROF CONTINUES TO            
SIT JUST OFFSHORE WITH A WEAK SURFACE REFLECTION SHOWING UP                     
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF THE SC/NC BORDER. RADAR SHOWS THAT HEAVY TO                  
MODERATE RAIN OUT OVER THE OCEAN IS AT ROUGHLY THE SAME LATITUDE AS             
KILM AND LIFTING NORTH. MEANWHILE IN RESPONSE TO THE COASTAL TROF               
LIFTING NORTHWARD EARLY THIS MORNING...A DEEP EASTERLY FLOW OF AIR              
CONTINUES TO SHIFT SHOWERS BACK TOWARD THE WEST. TOWARD DAWN THE                
COASTAL TROF WILL SHIFT NORTHWARD. IN RESPONSE THE FLOW BECOMES MORE            
NORTHERLY EARLY THIS MORNING AND EVENTUALLY NORTHWESTERLY BY LATE               
AFTERNOON. THIS WILL PRODUCE MORE OF AN OFFSHORE FLOW AND NOT QUITE             
AS CONDUCIVE FOR A WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAIN. INSTEAD WE CAN EXPECT                 
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND AREAS OF DRIZZLE THROUGH DAWN AT ALL TERMINALS            
WITH VISIBILITIES IN THE MVFR RANGE. WE SHOULD BEGIN TO DRY OUT                 
ALONG THE COAST SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE WITH ONLY LINGERING SHOWERS               
INLAND IN WRAP AROUND MOISTURE.                                                 
CIGS: (THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY)...WHILE THE STEADIER RAIN HAS BEEN                
CONFINED TO THE COAST THE LOWER CEILINGS HAD INITIALLY BEEN AN                  
INLAND AFFAIR DUE TO A CLASSIC WEDGE SETTING UP. NOW ALL TERMINALS              
ARE SEEING MVFR/IFR CEILINGS AND THIS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH DAWN.               
GFS MOS GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THIS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE AFTERNOON AND             
AFTER SEEING ANOTHER RUN OF THE MODELS I HAVE TO BEGIN TO INTRODUCE             
THIS. WE WILL SEE SOME LIFTING OF THE CEILINGS INTO THE MVFR RANGE              
BY AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY AT KFLO. LOW CEILINGS ARE LIKELY AGAIN                
TONIGHT AND DUE TO THE LIGHT WINDS VISIBILITIES MAY DROP AGAIN AFTER            
SUNSET.                                                                         
OUTLOOK THROUGH SATURDAY...LOW CEILINGS ARE POSSIBLE TUESDAY NIGHT              
INTO WEDNESDAY AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES UP THE COAST. WE                
WILL REMAIN IN A COOL NORTHERLY FLOW WHICH WILL KEEP A FEW SHOWERS              
AROUND THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. BY THURSDAY THE INFLUENCE OF THE            
LOW WILL DISSIPATE AND CEILINGS WILL IMPROVE. VFR WEATHER EXPECTED              
THURSDAY THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY. OUR NEXT WEATHER FEATURE WILL BE A             
COLD FRONT SATURDAY THAT WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS.                       
&&                                                                              
.MARINE...                                                                      
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...                                                  
AS OF 10 PM MONDAY...COASTAL TROF HAS BECOME THE FOCI FOR THE NEAR              
TERM. SFC LOW HAVING MOVED ALONG IT...AND NOW LOCATED OFFSHORE FROM             
CAPE FEAR WILL MORE OR LESS MESH WITH THE FLOW AS IT CONTINUES                  
NORTHWARD. DO NOT LIKE WHAT THE RUC MODEL DOES WITH THE COASTAL TROF            
BY TUE MORNING...WHEREBY IT TAKES IT INLAND. PREFER THE NAM/GFS IN              
KEEPING JUST OFFSHORE AND PARALLEL TO THE NC AND SC COASTS. HAVE                
USED THE CORRELATION OF IF THERE IS NO TROFFINESS OVER TX/OK...THEN             
EXPECT NO INLAND MOVEMENT OF THE COASTAL TROF/FRONT ACROSS THE ILM              
CWA. SFC PG TO REMAIN ON THE TIGHTEN SIDE AND AS A RESULT WILL                  
CONTINUE THE STRONG SCA...WITH NE 25-30 KT TONIGHT INTO TUE. BASED              
ON LATEST BUOY READINGS...HAVE INCREASED SEAS ACROSS THE BOARD BY 1             
TO AS MUCH AS 2 FEET OVERNIGHT THRU TUESDAY. THE SHOALS AT FRYING               
PAN WILL ABSORB A GOOD PORTION OF THE HIER SEAS FOR AMZ252 AND WILL             
LIKELY CAST A SHADOW THRU TUE. BUT SHOULD HAVE SOME WRAPAROUND TO               
JUSTIFY 3 TO 5 FT OR 4 TO 6 FT NEAR SHORE FOR THIS ZONE.                        
SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...                                       
AS OF 3 PM MONDAY...SCA CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TUE NIGHT              
AND MAY CONTINUE BEYOND THE CURRENT END TIME OF 12Z WED. GIVEN THE              
LARGE AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY DID NOT FEEL CONFIDENT ENOUGH                       
EXTENDING CURRENT HEADLINES. SFC LOW MOVING N OUT OF THE BAHAMAS                
WILL KEEP ERLY FLOW OVER THE WATERS INTO WED BEFORE WINDS BEGIN                 
BACKING TO NRLY AS SFC LOW APPROACHES. STILL UNSURE OF EXACT                    
TRACK/STRENGTH OF SFC LOW BUT FAIRLY CONFIDENT THE CENTER WILL                  
STAY E OF THE WATERS. PROLONGED PERIOD OF ONSHORE AND THEN NE FLOW              
WILL PUSH SEAS INTO THE DOUBLE DIGIT RANGE AROUND 41013 TUE                     
NIGHT/WED.                                                                      
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...                                        
AS OF 3 PM MONDAY...DECREASING TREND OF WINDS AND SEAS WILL                     
CONTINUE AS LOW MOVES OFF TO THE NORTH AWAY FROM AREA AND WEAK                  
HIGH PRESSURE TAKES HOLD. OFF SHORE NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DECREASE               
THROUGH THURS AS THEY BACK AROUND TO THE WEST AND EVENTUALLY                    
SOUTHWEST BY FRI AS HIGH SHIFTS OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. SEAS WILL              
BASICALLY START OUT IN THE 2 TO 4 FT RANGE BY THURS MORNING AND                 
WILL DECREASE EVEN FURTHER THROUGH EARLY FRI BEFORE INCREASING                  
AGAIN ON FRI. AN INCREASING RETURN FLOW OF SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS                  
WILL SET UP AS COLD FRONT APPROACHES THROUGH FRIDAY WITH WINDS                  
RUNNING SW IN THE 10 TO 15 KT RANGE. SEAS SHOULD INCREASE UP TO 2               
TO 4 FT BY FRI EVENING. MAY SEE SEAS INCREASE UP TO 2 TO 3 FT IN                
SOUTH FACING BEACHES AND UP TO 5 FT OUTER WATERS BEFORE COLD FRONT              
FINALLY PUSHES THROUGH. WINDS SHOULD VEER AROUND TO OFF SHORE BY                
SAT EVENING AND QUICKLY DECREASE BY LATE IN THE PERIOD BUT WINDS                
WILL REMAIN STRONGER SAT NIGHT IN A WELL MIXED ATMOSPHERE AS COLD               
AIR RUSHES OVER THE WARMER WATERS.                                              
&&                                                                              
.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
SC...NONE.                                                                      
NC...NONE.                                                                      
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR                      
     AMZ254-256.                                                                
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR AMZ250-252.              
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SYNOPSIS...HOEHLER                                                              
NEAR TERM...HOEHLER                                                             
SHORT TERM...LEBO                                                               
LONG TERM...GROSS-ZOUZIAS                                                       
AVIATION...HEDEN                                                                
CLIMATE...HEDEN                                                                 
</pre> nc                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND                                         
917 PM CST WED NOV 5 2008                                                       
.DISCUSSION...NO MAJOR UPDATED NEEDED AT THIS POINT. PREVIOUS                   
FORECAST THINKING REMAINS VALID (SEE BELOW). ALL CURRENT HEADLINES              
ON TRACK. CURRENT RAIN AREA LOCATED ALONG AND NORTH OF A                        
COOPERSTOWN-GRAND FORKS-ROSEAU LINE (STRONGEST 850MB WARM AIR                   
ADVECTION). THIS AREA OF RAIN WILL REMAIN MAINLY ACROSS THE DVL                 
BASIN THROUGH 12Z THUR. SE FA WILL PROBABLY BE MAINLY DRY DURING                
THIS TIME (CURRENT FORECAST DOES SHOW LOWER POPS ACROSS THIS                    
AREA). LEADING EDGE OF NEXT SLUG OF MOISTURE SEEN ON RADAR IMAGERY              
ACROSS IOWA/S MN. THIS WILL PROPAGATE INTO THE FA TOMORROW                      
MORNING. THINK CURRENT QPF FORECAST ON TRACK GIVEN THE ABOVE.                   
BIGGEST QUESTION MARK WITH THIS EVENT LOOKS TO BE                               
P-TYPE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE DVL BASIN TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY.                 
CURRENTLY TEMPS ARE NEAR FREEZING (32F-34F). WARM GROUND TEMPS                  
PREVENTING FZRA ATTM...WHICH SHOULD PREVENT ICE ON ROADS THROUGH                
TONIGHT (WILL MONITOR THOUGH). TOMORROW EVEN TRICKIER...AND 00Z NAM             
STRONGER/NW WITH SFC LOW INDICATING CHANGEOVER TO SNOW WILL BE                  
DELAYED. WILL AWAIT ALL 00Z GUIDANCE AND ALLOW MID-SHIFT TO ASSESS              
THE SITUATION. COMPLEX TO SAY THE LEAST.                                        
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...IFR CIGS FOR MOST TAF SITES TODAY THROUGH ABOUT                     
FRIDAY...AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM BRINGS A SIG RAIN EVENT...WHICH               
WILL LIKELY TURN TO SNOW THU NIGHT. COULD SEE SOME TEMPO CONDS                  
WHERE CIGS BECOME MVFR AND MAYBE VFR...BUT PREDOMINANT CONDS BY                 
LATE THIS EVENING SHOULD BE IFR.                                                
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 624 PM CST WED NOV 5 2008/                          
UPDATE...WIND SPEEDS ACROSS THE DEVILS LAKE BASIN CURRENTLY                     
SUSTAINED AOA 30MPH. 21Z RUC SHOWS 925MB WINDS AROUND 40KNTS AND                
REMAIN OR SLIGHTLY INCREASE THROUGH THE NIGHT. SOUNDINGS SHOW                   
UNIDIRECTIONAL UP TO 900MB. THUS...DO NOT SEE WIND SPEEDS                       
DECREASING THROUGH THE NIGHT. WILL ISSUE WIND ADVISORY FOR THIS                 
AREA UNTIL 12Z THUR. WINDS WILL REMAIN STRONG INTO TOMORROW...BUT               
WINTER STORM WARNING TAKES AFFECT. WILL NEED TO MONITOR LOCATIONS               
TO THE EAST FOR POSSIBLE WIND ADVISORY...AND WILL ADDRESS ON                    
ACTUAL EVENING UPDATE (@830PM).                                                 
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 330 PM CST WED NOV 5 2008/                           
SHORT TERM...                                                                   
LOTS OF ISSUES TODAY. ATTM LEANING TOWARD 12Z GFS SOLN WHICH                    
MATCHES VERY WELL WITH 12Z CANADIAN AS WELL IN KEEPING A BIT                    
WARMER 925-850 MB LAYER FURTHER WEST INTO THE RED RIVER VALLEY TIL              
LATE THURSDAY AFTN/NIGHT THAN THE 12Z NAM DOES.                                 
CURRENTLY...SFC LOW DEEPENING BTWN ABERDEEN AND PIERRE WITH                     
PRESSURE FALLS JUST WEST OF ABERDEEN. UPPER LOW AND VORT MOVING                 
INTO WRN NEBRASKA/SW SD ATTM WITH TSTMS DEVELOPING ON NOSE OF DRY               
SLOT ALOFT OVER SE ND MOVING NORTH AND NORTHWEST. RUC SHOWS                     
CONTINUED DESTABILIZATION AS 850 MB JET INCREASES LATE THIS                     
AFTN/EVE OVER ERN ND WITH STRONG UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE DEVELOPING              
OVER THE AREA LEADING TO EXPANDING PCPN FIELD. SFC BOUNDARY                     
EXTENDS FROM SFC LOW IN SOUTH DAKOTA TO JUST SOUTH OF FARGO TO                  
NEAR WASKISH MN AND WILL MOVE LITTLE THRU 12Z THU AS SFC LOW MOVES              
ONLY SLOWLY ENE ALONG IT. AREA OF DEEPER LAYER MOISTURE SEEN ON                 
WATER VAPOR FROM OKLA INTO KS/IA/SRN MN WILL GET ABSORBED INTO                  
SYSTEM AND GET DRAGGED NORTH AND THEN WEST TO THE NORTH OF THE                  
UPPER LOW INTO ERN ND LATE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY SETTING THE STAGE              
FOR A WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINFALL AND SNOWFALL EVENT FOR CNTR/ERN ND              
AND NW MN. SFC LOW WILL MOVE TO NR A WHEATON/ALEXANDRIA AREA BY                 
00Z FRI WITH PCPN CONTINUING TO WRAP AROUND THE SYSTEM OVER                     
ERN/CNTRL ND. CRITICAL THICKNESSES SHOW TRANSITION TO SNOW WITH                 
BRIEF MIX OF SLEET/FZRA PSBL FROM WEST TO EAST THRU ERN ND ON                   
THURSDAY. DVL BASIN TO SEE MOSTLY SNOW EVENT AFTER 12Z THURSDAY                 
INTO THU NIGHT AND AGREE WITH HPC THINKING OF 6-10 INCHES NR                    
LANGDON TO DVL AREA SOUTHWESTWARD SO UPGRADED TO WINTER STORM                   
WARNING IN THAT AREA. WENT WITH WINTER STORM WATCH FOR AREAS                    
EASTWARD TO HALLOCK-GRAND FORKS-VALLEY CITY-LISBON AS RAIN CHANGES              
TO SNOW LATE THU AFTN.                                                          
RAIN TO SNOW WILL TRANSITION EASTWARD THU NIGHT BUT PCPN TO                     
DIMINISH IN INTENSITY SO THREAT FOR HVY SNOW DIMINISHES FOR AREAS               
EAST OF A ROSEAU TO CROOKSTON TO FARGO AND WAHPETON LINE.                       
WIND TO BE AN ISSUE WITH 40-50KTS AT 850 MB OVER DVL BASIN AND THE              
JAMES RIVER BASIN THURSDAY-THU NIGHT SO NR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS                  
VERY PSBL.                                                                      
SYSTEM WILL FILL ON FRIDAY WITH PCPN WINDING DOWN AND WIND                      
DIMINISHING.                                                                    
LONG TERM... /WED THROUGH SAT/                                                  
LONG TERM MODELS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH A CANADIAN HIGH SITTING              
OVER MY FA IN THE LONG TERM. HOWEVER...CANADIAN/ECMWF BOTH SHOW A               
LOW EJECT OUT OF SWRN US TUE INTO WED...WITH THE TRACK BRING MORE               
PRECIP INTO THE GRT LKS STATES. GFS DOES NOT SHOW A CLOSED LOW WITH             
THIS SYSTEM. NOT A FACTOR FOR OUR FA UNLESS THE TRACK STARTS                    
SHIFTING FURTHER WEST...OTHERWISE LOOK FOR A DRY LONG TERM.                     
&&                                                                              
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
ND...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON FOR NDZ008-016-026>030-             
     038-039-049-052>054.                                                       
     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST THURSDAY FOR NDZ006-007-014-015-024.          
     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 6 AM THURSDAY TO 12 PM CST FRIDAY FOR            
     NDZ006-007-014-015-024.                                                    
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY                  
     MORNING FOR NDZ008-016-026>029-038-049-052-054.                            
MN...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON FOR MNZ001>005-007-008-             
     013>015-022-027-029-030-040.                                               
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY                  
     MORNING FOR MNZ004-007.                                                    
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
TG                                                                              
</pre> nd                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND                                         
624 PM CST WED NOV 5 2008                                                       
.UPDATE...WIND SPEEDS ACROSS THE DEVILS LAKE BASIN CURRENTLY                    
SUSTAINED AOA 30MPH. 21Z RUC SHOWS 925MB WINDS AROUND 40KNTS AND                
REMAIN OR SLIGHTLY INCREASE THROUGH THE NIGHT. SOUNDINGS SHOW                   
UNIDIRECTIONAL UP TO 900MB. THUS...DO NOT SEE WIND SPEEDS                       
DECREASING THROUGH THE NIGHT. WILL ISSUE WIND ADVISORY FOR THIS                 
AREA UNTIL 12Z THUR. WINDS WILL REMAIN STRONG INTO TOMORROW...BUT               
WINTER STORM WARNING TAKES AFFECT. WILL NEED TO MONITOR LOCATIONS               
TO THE EAST FOR POSSIBLE WIND ADVISORY...AND WILL ADDRESS ON                    
ACTUAL EVENING UPDATE (@830PM).                                                 
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...IFR CIGS FOR MOST TAF SITES TODAY THROUGH ABOUT                     
FRIDAY...AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM BRINGS A SIG RAIN EVENT...WHICH               
WILL LIKELY TURN TO SNOW THU NIGHT. COULD SEE SOME TEMPO CONDS                  
WHERE CIGS BECOME MVFR AND MAYBE VFR...BUT PREDOMINANT CONDS BY                 
LATE THIS EVENING SHOULD BE IFR.                                                
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 330 PM CST WED NOV 5 2008/                          
SHORT TERM...                                                                   
LOTS OF ISSUES TODAY. ATTM LEANING TOWARD 12Z GFS SOLN WHICH                    
MATCHES VERY WELL WITH 12Z CANADIAN AS WELL IN KEEPING A BIT                    
WARMER 925-850 MB LAYER FURTHER WEST INTO THE RED RIVER VALLEY TIL              
LATE THURSDAY AFTN/NIGHT THAN THE 12Z NAM DOES.                                 
CURRENTLY...SFC LOW DEEPENING BTWN ABERDEEN AND PIERRE WITH                     
PRESSURE FALLS JUST WEST OF ABERDEEN. UPPER LOW AND VORT MOVING                 
INTO WRN NEBRASKA/SW SD ATTM WITH TSTMS DEVELOPING ON NOSE OF DRY               
SLOT ALOFT OVER SE ND MOVING NORTH AND NORTHWEST. RUC SHOWS                     
CONTINUED DESTABILIZATION AS 850 MB JET INCREASES LATE THIS                     
AFTN/EVE OVER ERN ND WITH STRONG UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE DEVELOPING              
OVER THE AREA LEADING TO EXPANDING PCPN FIELD. SFC BOUNDARY                     
EXTENDS FROM SFC LOW IN SOUTH DAKOTA TO JUST SOUTH OF FARGO TO                  
NEAR WASKISH MN AND WILL MOVE LITTLE THRU 12Z THU AS SFC LOW MOVES              
ONLY SLOWLY ENE ALONG IT. AREA OF DEEPER LAYER MOISTURE SEEN ON                 
WATER VAPOR FROM OKLA INTO KS/IA/SRN MN WILL GET ABSORBED INTO                  
SYSTEM AND GET DRAGGED NORTH AND THEN WEST TO THE NORTH OF THE                  
UPPER LOW INTO ERN ND LATE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY SETTING THE STAGE              
FOR A WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINFALL AND SNOWFALL EVENT FOR CNTR/ERN ND              
AND NW MN. SFC LOW WILL MOVE TO NR A WHEATON/ALEXANDRIA AREA BY                 
00Z FRI WITH PCPN CONTINUING TO WRAP AROUND THE SYSTEM OVER                     
ERN/CNTRL ND. CRITICAL THICKNESSES SHOW TRANSITION TO SNOW WITH                 
BRIEF MIX OF SLEET/FZRA PSBL FROM WEST TO EAST THRU ERN ND ON                   
THURSDAY. DVL BASIN TO SEE MOSTLY SNOW EVENT AFTER 12Z THURSDAY                 
INTO THU NIGHT AND AGREE WITH HPC THINKING OF 6-10 INCHES NR                    
LANGDON TO DVL AREA SOUTHWESTWARD SO UPGRADED TO WINTER STORM                   
WARNING IN THAT AREA. WENT WITH WINTER STORM WATCH FOR AREAS                    
EASTWARD TO HALLOCK-GRAND FORKS-VALLEY CITY-LISBON AS RAIN CHANGES              
TO SNOW LATE THU AFTN.                                                          
RAIN TO SNOW WILL TRANSITION EASTWARD THU NIGHT BUT PCPN TO                     
DIMINISH IN INTENSITY SO THREAT FOR HVY SNOW DIMINISHES FOR AREAS               
EAST OF A ROSEAU TO CROOKSTON TO FARGO AND WAHPETON LINE.                       
WIND TO BE AN ISSUE WITH 40-50KTS AT 850 MB OVER DVL BASIN AND THE              
JAMES RIVER BASIN THURSDAY-THU NIGHT SO NR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS                  
VERY PSBL.                                                                      
SYSTEM WILL FILL ON FRIDAY WITH PCPN WINDING DOWN AND WIND                      
DIMINISHING.                                                                    
LONG TERM... /WED THROUGH SAT/                                                  
LONG TERM MODELS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH A CANADIAN HIGH SITTING              
OVER MY FA IN THE LONG TERM. HOWEVER...CANADIAN/ECMWF BOTH SHOW A               
LOW EJECT OUT OF SWRN US TUE INTO WED...WITH THE TRACK BRING MORE               
PRECIP INTO THE GRT LKS STATES. GFS DOES NOT SHOW A CLOSED LOW WITH             
THIS SYSTEM. NOT A FACTOR FOR OUR FA UNLESS THE TRACK STARTS                    
SHIFTING FURTHER WEST...OTHERWISE LOOK FOR A DRY LONG TERM.                     
&&                                                                              
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
ND...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON FOR NDZ008-016-026>030-             
     038-039-049-052>054.                                                       
     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST THURSDAY FOR NDZ006-007-014-015-024.          
     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 6 AM THURSDAY TO 12 PM CST FRIDAY FOR            
     NDZ006-007-014-015-024.                                                    
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY                  
     MORNING FOR NDZ008-016-026>029-038-049-052-054.                            
MN...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON FOR MNZ001>005-007-008-             
     013>015-022-027-029-030-040.                                               
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY                  
     MORNING FOR MNZ004-007.                                                    
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
TG                                                                              
</pre> nd                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND                                         
330 PM CST WED NOV 5 2008                                                       
.SHORT TERM...                                                                  
LOTS OF ISSUES TODAY. ATTM LEANING TOWARD 12Z GFS SOLN WHICH                    
MATCHES VERY WELL WITH 12Z CANADIAN AS WELL IN KEEPING A BIT                    
WARMER 925-850 MB LAYER FURTHER WEST INTO THE RED RIVER VALLEY TIL              
LATE THURSDAY AFTN/NIGHT THAN THE 12Z NAM DOES.                                 
CURRENTLY...SFC LOW DEEPENING BTWN ABERDEEN AND PIERRE WITH                     
PRESSURE FALLS JUST WEST OF ABERDEEN. UPPER LOW AND VORT MOVING                 
INTO WRN NEBRASKA/SW SD ATTM WITH TSTMS DEVELOPING ON NOSE OF DRY               
SLOT ALOFT OVER SE ND MOVING NORTH AND NORTHWEST. RUC SHOWS                     
CONTINUED DESTABLIZATION AS 850 MB JET INCREASES LATE THIS                      
AFTN/EVE OVER ERN ND WITH STRONG UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE DEVELOPING              
OVER THE AREA LEADING TO EXPANDING PCPN FIELD. SFC BOUNDARY                     
EXTENDS FROM SFC LOW IN SOUTH DAKOTA TO JUST SOUTH OF FARGO TO                  
NEAR WASKISH MN AND WILL MOVE LITTLE THRU 12Z THU AS SFC LOW MOVES              
ONLY SLOWLY ENE ALONG IT. AREA OF DEEPER LAYER MOISTURE SEEN ON                 
WATER VAPOR FROM OKLA INTO KS/IA/SRN MN WILL GET ABSORBED INTO                  
SYSTEM AND GET DRAGGED NORTH AND THEN WEST TO THE NORTH OF THE                  
UPPER LOW INTO ERN ND LATE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY SETTING THE STAGE              
FOR A WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINFALL AND SNOWFALL EVENT FOR CNTR/ERN ND              
AND NW MN. SFC LOW WILL MOVE TO NR A WHEATON/ALEXANDRIA AREA BY                 
00Z FRI WITH PCPN CONTINUING TO WRAP AROUND THE SYSTEM OVER                     
ERN/CNTRL ND. CRITICAL THICKENSSES SHOW TRANSITION TO SNOW WITH                 
BRIEF MIX OF SLEET/FZRA PSBL FROM WEST TO EAST THRU ERN ND ON                   
THURSDAY. DVL BASIN TO SEE MOSTLY SNOW EVENT AFTER 12Z THURSDAY                 
INTO THU NIGHT AND AGREE WITH HPC THINKING OF 6-10 INCHES NR                    
LANGDON TO DVL AREA SOUTHWESTWARD SO UPGRADED TO WINTER STORM                   
WARNING IN THAT AREA. WENT WITH WINTER STORM WATCH FOR AREAS                    
EASTWARD TO HALLOCK-GRAND FORKS-VALLEY CITY-LISBON AS RAIN CHANGES              
TO SNOW LATE THU AFTN.                                                          
RAIN TO SNOW WILL TRANSITION EASTWARD THU NIGHT BUT PCPN TO                     
DIMINISH IN INTENSITY SO THREAT FOR HVY SNOW DIMINISHES FOR AREAS               
EAST OF A ROSEAU TO CROOKSTON TO FARGO AND WAHPETON LINE.                       
WIND TO BE AN ISSUE WITH 40-50KTS AT 850 MB OVER DVL BASIN AND THE              
JAMES RIVER BASIN THURSDAY-THU NIGHT SO NR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS                  
VERY PSBL.                                                                      
SYSTEM WILL FILL ON FRIDAY WITH PCPN WINDING DOWN AND WIND                      
DIMINISHING.                                                                    
.LONG TERM... /WED THROUGH SAT/                                                 
LONG TERM MODELS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH A CANADIAN HIGH SITTING              
OVER MY FA IN THE LONG TERM. HOWEVER...CANADIAN/ECMWF BOTH SHOW A               
LOW EJECT OUT OF SWRN US TUE INTO WED...WITH THE TRACK BRING MORE               
PRECIP INTO THE GRT LKS STATES. GFS DOES NOT SHOW A CLOSED LOW WITH             
THIS SYSTEM. NOT A FACTOR FOR OUR FA UNLESS THE TRACK STARTS                    
SHIFTING FURTHER WEST...OTHERWISE LOOK FOR A DRY LONG TERM.                     
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION                                                                       
IFR CIGS FOR MOST TAF SITES TODAY THROUGH ABOUT FRIDAY...AS A LOW               
PRESSURE SYSTEM BRINGS A SIG RAIN EVENT...WHICH WILL LIKELY TURN TO             
SNOW THU NIGHT. COULD SEE SOME TEMPO CONDS WHERE CIGS BECOME MVFR               
AND MAYBE VFR...BUT PREDOMINANT CONDS BY LATE THIS EVENING SHOULD BE            
IFR.                                                                            
&&                                                                              
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
ND...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON FOR NDZ008-016-026>030-             
     038-039-049-052>054.                                                       
     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 6 AM THURSDAY TO 12 PM CST FRIDAY FOR            
     NDZ006-007-014-015-024.                                                    
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY                  
     MORNING FOR NDZ008-016-026>029-038-049-052-054.                            
MN...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON FOR MNZ001>005-007-008-             
     013>015-022-027-029-030-040.                                               
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY                  
     MORNING FOR MNZ004-007.                                                    
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
RIDDLE/SPEICHER                                                                 
</pre> nd                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX                                      
705 PM CST WED NOV 5 2008                                                       
.UPDATE...                                                                      
WE HAVE UPDATED TO REMOVE MENTION OF THE WIND ADVISORY FOR THE                  
SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO PLAINS...PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN PERMIAN                  
BASIN...UPPER TRANS PECOS AND MARFA PLATEAU. THE HIGH WIND WARNING              
FOR THE DAVIS MOUNTAINS ABOVE 6000 FEET HAS ALSO BEEN ALLOWED TO                
EXPIRE. THE HIGH WIND WARNING FOR THE GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS REMAINS               
IN EFFECT. MINOR CHANGES HAVE ALSO BEEN MADE TO THIS EVENING/S                  
WINDS AND DEW POINTS.                                                           
&&                                                                              
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
AREA OBSERVATIONS SHOW WINDS GENERALLY ON THE DECREASE ACROSS WEST              
TEXAS AND SOUTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO. WINDS ACROSS THE GUADALUPES                  
REMAIN AT OR VERY CLOSE TO HIGH WIND LEVELS...SO THE HIGH WIND                  
WARNING WILL REMAIN INTACT THERE UNTIL 8 PM MST. ELSEWHERE...A                  
COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY LOCATED JUST NORTH OF ARTESIA TO                        
LOVINGTON. WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT HAVE BEEN SUSTAINED NEAR 20KTS                
WITH GUSTS AROUND 30KTS. THE LATEST RUC13 AGREES FAIRLY WELL WITH               
THE CURRENT OBSERVATIONS...SO WE HAVE USED IT/S SOLUTION TO UPDATE              
WINDS THIS EVENING. ALL PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN SENT.                                
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 559 PM CST WED NOV 5 2008/                          
DISCUSSION...                                                                   
00Z AVIATION FORECAST DISCUSSION BELOW.                                         
AVIATION...                                                                     
WESTERLY WIND SPEEDS ARE GRADUALLY COMING DOWN ACROSS THE REGION...             
ALTHOUGH SPEEDS BETWEEN 15 AND 20 KNOTS...WITH A FEW GUSTS OVER 25              
KNOTS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST AT KCNM AND KHOB THROUGH 03Z. A COLD              
FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION LATER THIS EVENING...AND WINDS                
WILL BECOME NORTHWESTERLY FOLLOWING FRONTAL PASSAGE. WIND SPEEDS                
SHOULD GENERALLY REMAIN BETWEEN 10 AND 15 KNOTS BEHIND THE                      
FRONT...ALTHOUGH SLIGHTLY HIGHER SPEEDS MAY AFFECT THE KHOB                     
TERMINAL UNTIL AROUND 08Z. OTHERWISE...LOOK FOR VFR CONDITIONS                  
THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A BAND OF HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS THE REGION              
SHOULD GRADUALLY DIMINISH BY LATE EVENING...WITH CLEAR SKIES                    
EXPECTED OVERNIGHT THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY THURSDAY.                            
21                                                                              
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 229 PM CST WED NOV 5 2008/                           
DISCUSSION...                                                                   
RELATIVELY TYPICAL WIND EVENT TODAY DUE TO AN UPPER LEVEL LOW                   
MOVING NORTH OF THE AREA. HAVE CONTINUED THE HIGH WIND WARNING AND              
ADVISORY ACROSS THE AREA AS WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO                 
THE EVENING. SOME LOCATIONS... MOST NOTABLY THE NORTHERN PERMIAN                
BASIN...HAVE NOT YET COME UP TO ADVISORY CRITERIA...BUT THINKING                
IS THAT THEY STILL COULD OVER THE NEXT HANDFUL OF HOURS...GIVEN                 
THAT MANY LOCATIONS HAVE COME CLOSE.                                            
OTHERWISE...WINDS WILL BEGIN TO LAY DOWN TOMORROW AS THE UPPER LEVEL            
SYSTEM CLEARS THE AREA AND GO TO LIGHT AND VARIABLE INTO THE                    
WEEKEND.  AS THE PACIFIC FRONT CONTINUES MOVING THROUGH THE AREA A              
DRIER AIRMASS WILL BEGIN FILTERING INTO THE AREA EARLY TOMORROW.                
DEWPOINTS WILL BEGIN TO DROP AND BE INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS/TEENS                
ACROSS THE AREA BY THURSDAY NIGHT.  THIS...ALONG WITH LIGHTER                   
WINDS...WILL ALLOW OVERNIGHT TEMPS TO DROP DOWN QUITE A BIT.  BE ON             
THE WATCH FOR FREEZE WARNINGS POSSIBLY THURSDAY OR FRIDAY NIGHT AS              
SOME LOCATIONS COULD HIT THE 32F MARK THAT DIDN/T WITH OUR LAST                 
STRONG COLD FRONT.  IN ADDITION...GIVEN THE DRY CONDITIONS...FIRE               
WEATHER CONCERNS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE /SEE FIRE WX DISCO BELOW/.             
EXPECT ANOTHER ROUND OF WINDS...SIMILAR TO TODAY/S AROUND MONDAY OF             
NEXT WEEK AS THE NEXT BIG SYSTEM WINDS UP TO MOVE NORTH OF THE                  
AREA.  MODELS HINT THAT A SHORT WAVE SYSTEM WILL QUICKLY FOLLOW                 
BEHIND IT DURING MID WEEK THAT COULD KEEP WINDS UP ACROSS SOME PARTS            
OF THE AREA.  RAINFALL CHANCES CONTINUE TO LOOK SLIM THROUGH MUCH OF            
THE WEEK...ALTHOUGH SOME RETURN FLOW LATE NEXT WEEK COULD BRING SOME            
MUCH NEEDED MOISTURE WITH THAT MID WEEK SYSTEM.  CROSS YOUR FINGERS             
IF YOU/RE WANTING RAIN.../13/.                                                  
FIRE WEATHER...                                                                 
STRONG WESTERLY WINDS AND MINIMUM AFTERNOON RH/S NEAR 15 PERCENT                
WILL COMBINE TO CREATE NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS OVER               
PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON.                     
ALTHOUGH WEST WINDS WILL DECREASE IN THE 05/23Z TO 06/03Z TIME                  
FRAME...CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE ONLY SLOWLY TONIGHT AS A COLD FRONT             
PUSHES SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT.  MUCH DRIER AIR WILL FILTER              
INTO THE AREA BEHIND THE FRONT WHICH WILL RESULT IN POOR TO FAIR                
RECOVERY OVERNIGHT MOST LOCATIONS.  IN ADDITION...NORTHWEST TO NORTH            
WINDS WILL BE 15 TO 20 MPH FOR A PERIOD OF TIME BEHIND THE FRONT.               
DO NOT EXPECT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS FOR THREE HOURS OR               
LONGER THOUGH...SO WILL NOT ISSUE A RED FLAG WARNING.                           
DESPITE COOLER TEMPERATURES AREAWIDE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...MINIMUM              
AFTERNOON RH/S WILL DIP TO 10 TO 20 PERCENT MOST LOCATIONS AS THE               
DRY AIR REMAINS ENTRENCHED OVER THE AREA.  HOWEVER...WIND SPEEDS                
WILL GENERALLY BE LESS THAN 15 MPH BOTH DAYS.  RECOVERY THURSDAY AND            
FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE POOR TO FAIR.  THE NEXT UPPER STORM SYSTEM WILL            
AFFECT THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.  AT THIS TIME...IT                   
APPEARS CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL NOT BE MET SUNDAY                 
AFTERNOON DESPITE INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS. /67/                          
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
BIG SPRING TX              42  65  33  66  /   0   0   0   0                    
CARLSBAD NM                42  66  32  66  /   0   0   0   0                    
DRYDEN TX                  52  71  42  70  /   0   0   0   0                    
FORT STOCKTON TX           42  67  33  67  /   0   0   0   0                    
GUADALUPE PASS TX          40  60  33  60  /   0   0   0   0                    
HOBBS NM                   41  61  32  63  /   0   0   0   0                    
MARFA TX                   37  64  27  63  /   0   0   0   0                    
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    41  65  32  67  /   0   0   0   0                    
ODESSA TX                  41  65  32  67  /   0   0   0   0                    
WINK TX                    42  67  34  68  /   0   0   0   0                    
&&                                                                              
.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
NM...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 8 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING            
     ZONES... GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS OF EDDY COUNTY.                               
TX...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 8 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING            
     ZONES... GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS.                                              
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
21/06                                                                           
</pre> tx                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA                                          
714 AM EST TUE NOV 4 2008                                                       
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDS FROM THE NORTH ATLANTIC...                         
SOUTHWESTWARD TO THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. A LOW PRESSURE CENTER               
OFF THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST THIS MORNING WILL MOVE SLOWLY                      
NORTHWARD THROUGH THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE                  
AREA FRIDAY NIGHT.                                                              
&&                                                                              
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...                                         
USED THE LATEST SREF AND 09Z RUC TO FINE TO THE WESTWARD SPREAD OF              
THE PRECIPITATION. STILL LOOKS LIKE THE BIGGEST PUSH WEST WILL BE               
AFTER 15Z AND THE WESTERN EDGE MAY NOT GET MUCH PAST A LWB TO BLF               
TO TNB LINE BEFORE 21Z.                                                         
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...                             
PATTERN TRANSITIONS FROM AN UPPER LOW OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION              
TODAY AND TONIGHT TO A DEEPER LOW OFF THE COAST ON WEDNESDAY AND                
THURSDAY. MODELS HAVE THE BEST Q-VECTOR FORCING AND ISENTROPIC LIFT             
TODAY AND TONIGHT. WILL BE PULLING THE CHANCE OF RAIN FARTHER WEST              
THIS TIME FRAME. THEN LITTLE CHANGE NEEDED TO THE CHANCE OF RAIN                
THROUGH FRIDAY. NEXT STRONG FRONT STILL CROSSING THROUGH THE                    
FORECAST AREA ON FRIDAY NIGHT.                                                  
MODELS STILL SHOWING A SPREAD OF SOLUTIONS FOR POSITION OF 500 MB               
AND SURFACE LOW BUT BOTH NAM AND GFS HAD ENHANCED LOW LEVEL                     
CONVERGENCE AND INCREASING 850 MB WINDS...MAYBE THIS AFTERNOON OR               
EVENING...WHICH WOULD RESULT IN A BAND OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN                
WITH SLIGHTLY STRONGER SURFACE WINDS. SO FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT WILL             
ALSO BE INCREASING THE WINDS IN THE SOUTHEAST COUNTY WARNING AREA.              
PLAN ON REDUCING THE DIURNAL SPREAD...ESPECIALLY IN THE EAST FOR                
TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY DUE TO ALL THE CLOUDS AND RAIN...RAISING LOWS             
TONIGHT AND LOWERING MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY.                         
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...                                   
THE OP GFS WAS DISREGARDED FOR THE LONG RANGE...AS ONE CAN SEE LARGE            
DISCREPANCIES BETWEEN ITS H5 FORECAST AND THOSE OF ITS ENSEMBLES.               
CONSIDERING THE UPPER RIDGE WHICH STRETCHES NORTH THROUGH MUCH OF               
THE CANADIAN PRAIRIE...DOES NOT APPEAR THAT THE REGION WILL                     
EXPERIENCE A PURE SHOT OF CONTINENTAL COLD AIR. FOR TEMPS...SPLIT               
THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE ECMWF AND GFS ENSEMBLE H85 TEMPS. AS THE             
FRONT CROSSES FRIDAY NIGHT...A CONSISTENT WESTERLY COMPONENT MAY                
ERODE MUCH IF NOT ALL OF THE PRECIP AS IT TRIES TO CROSS THE                    
MOUNTAINS. HOWEVER...AS THE MAIN LOW CUTS UP THROUGH THE GREAT                  
LAKES...THE OCCLUDED BOUNDARY WILL SLOW IN THE EASTERN CWA...SO LEFT            
CHC POPS THERE A BIT WHILE LONGER INTO SATURDAY. ALSO...LESS                    
AMPLITUDE FROM THE ECMWF/GFS ENSEMBLES...PLUS RESIDUAL LOW AND MID              
CLDS IN THE EASTERN CWA SUGGESTS THAT TEMPS MAY NOT SOAR ABV MEX                
GUIDANCE AS THEY NORMALLY DO AHEAD OF COLD FRONTS HERE. LIKE                    
YESTERDAY...THIS FRONT DOES NOT APPEAR TO HAVE THE DEGREE OF COLD               
WHICH FOLLOWED THE LAST DECENT FRONTAL PASSAGE LAST WEEK. UPSLOPE               
PROSPECTS NOT LOOKING TOO GOOD WITH MORE OF A WEST TO WEST                      
NORTHWEST WIND...SO CONFINED SLT CHC POPS TO WESTERN GREENBRIER FOR             
NOW THIS WEEKEND...LEAVING NW NC DRY FOR NOW.                                   
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...                                     
USED BUFKIT AND THE 09Z RUC TO TIME THE PRECIPITATION AT THE TAF                
SITES. AS THE RAIN SPREAD WEST CEILINGS WILL LOWER TO MVFR THEN                 
IFR. EXPECT LYH/DAN AND ROA TO ALL HAVE IFR CEILINGS AND MVFR                   
VISIBILITY WITH MODERATE RAIN BY 15-17Z. IT MAY TAKE UNTIL 20-22Z               
FOR THE WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION TO REACH LWB AND BLF.                          
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN IFR OVERNIGHT. THE TRACK AND                  
SPEED OF THE COASTAL LOW WILL ALSO KEEP A STRONGER LOW LEVEL JET                
IN CENTRAL AND EASTERN VIRGINIA SO LLWS HAS BEEN ADDED TO THE LYH               
TAF. THE LOW WILL BE EXITING THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND                    
THURSDAY...WITH A RETURN TO VFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES.                      
A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT BRINGING                
A WIND SHIFT AND MVFR SHWS/CIGS.                                                
&&                                                                              
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
VA...NONE.                                                                      
NC...NONE.                                                                      
WV...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SYNOPSIS...AMS                                                                  
NEAR TERM...AMS                                                                 
SHORT TERM...AMS                                                                
LONG TERM...KM                                                                  
AVIATION...AMS/KK                                                               
</pre> va                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI                                           
816 PM CST WED NOV 5 2008                                                       
.UPDATE...EVENING SURFACE ANALYSIS HAD LOW PRESSURE LOCATED OVER                
CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA...WITH COLD FRONT TRAILING SOUTHWARD ACROSS                
MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATED MID LEVEL                  
CIRCULATION SITUATED ALONG THE NEBRASKA/SOUTH DAKOTA BORDER. SHORT              
WAVES EVIDENT MOVING THROUGH EASTERN DAKOTAS...WITH ANOTHER                     
VIGOROUS WAVE ADVANCING ACROSS TX/OK PANHANDLE AREA.                            
850MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT POINTED INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI                     
VALLEY...AS EVIDENCED BY STRONG LOW LEVEL WINDS OF 45-55KT IN                   
PROFILER DATA. IN ADDITION...THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES SHOWED MUCAPE               
OF 500J/KG ELEVATED ATOP MLCIN VALUES OF 250J/KG.                               
BASED ON LATEST RUC...AS WELL AS SREF DATA...RAIN PROBABILITIES                 
EXPECTED TO INCREASE TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI               
RIVER. THIS DUE IN PART TO STRONGLY FORCED LOW LEVEL ENVIRONMENT                
ASSOCIATED WITH APPROACHING COLD FRONT...ALONG WITH UPPER LEVEL                 
DIVERGENCE.                                                                     
CURRENT FORECAST APPEARS TO HANDLE SCENARIO WELL. ONLY CHANGES                  
NECESSARY WILL BE TO SIMPLY ADJUST TRENDS FOR EVOLVING                          
PRECIPITATION...AS INDICATED BY LATEST RADAR AND FORECAST                       
GUIDANCE. AN UPDATED ZONE FORECAST PRODUCT SHOULD BE ISSUED BY                  
06.0330Z THIS EVENING.                                                          
THOMPSON                                                                        
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 245 PM CST WED NOV 5 2008/                          
SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT                                       
FORECAST CONCERNS FOCUS ON THE PCPN CHANCES/TIMING FOR TONIGHT AND              
THURSDAY...FOLLOWED BY THE AMOUNT OF COLD AIR AND THEN SNOW CHANCES.            
CURRENTLY...500 MB TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SHORTWAVE ENERGY DRIVING               
EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS. AN ASSOCIATED SFC LOW WAS              
LOCATED IN THE SD/NEB VICINITY...WITH A COLD FRONT RUNNING SOUTH OF             
THERE. LATEST 88-D RADAR IMAGERY POINTED TO SCT PCPN ALONG AND AHEAD            
OF THIS FRONT...MOSTLY ASSOCIATED WITH BROAD LOW LEVEL MOISTURE                 
TRANSPORT AND THE LOW LEVEL JET. THE 05.12Z NMM AND NAM12 CONTINUE              
THIS SCT ACTIVITY THIS EVENING...BUT START TO SHIFT THE MAIN PCPN               
FOCUS TO THE WEST...WHERE THE BETTER UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS OF THE 500            
MB SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND 300 MB JET WILL LIE. THE 05.12Z GFS SUPPORTS            
THIS. STRONG...CURVED UPPER LEVEL JET PROGGED TO ENHANCE ANY                    
CONVECTION OVER MN/IA...ESPECIALLY BETWEEN 06-12Z. FEEL THE ENHANCED            
QPF SIGNALS IN THE MODELS IN DIRECT RELATION TO THIS STRONG JET.                
MEANWHILE...THE LOW LEVEL THERMODYNAMICS/MOISTURE WOULD SEEM TO                 
SUPPORT PCPN CHANCES A BIT MORE EAST. BOTH THE GFS AND NAM POINT A              
STRONG 850 MB JET AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO THE FORECAST AREA BY              
12Z THU. IN ADDITION...GOOD ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE IS INDICATED IN THE              
295-305 K LAYER IN THIS AREA...ALONG WITH SOME 850-700 MB QG                    
CONVERGENCE. HOWEVER...AS MENTIONED...THE GFS AND NAM SEEM TO KEEP              
THEIR QPF ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL FORCING. THE 05.12Z                   
ARXMESOWRF CHOOSES TO PLACES IT QPF MORE WITH THE LOW LEVEL FORCING.            
THIS HAS A DIRECT BEARING ON THE POPS FOR TONIGHT...AS THE MAJORITY             
OF THE LATEST MODEL RUNS WOULD HOLD OFF ON THE BEST CHANCES UNTIL               
AFTER 12Z...AND THE MODELS HAVE BEEN TRENDING SLOWER OVER THEIR PAST            
COUPLE RUNS. HOWEVER...OTHER THAN THE MESOWRF...FEEL THE MODELS                 
AREN/T CAPTURING THE PCPN POTENTIAL WITH THE LOW LEVEL FORCING. WILL            
LIKELY TRIM BACK POPS A BIT FOR THIS EVENING...WITH BETTER CHANCES              
//MORE WIDESPREAD// OVERNIGHT...BUT CONTINUE THESE CHANCES FARTHER              
EAST THAN THE 12Z RUNS WOULD INDICATE. ONLY A HINT OF SOME MUCAPE               
BETWEEN 06-18Z...BUT WITH THE STRENGTH OF THE LOW LEVEL                         
JET...PROBABLY ENOUGH FOR ISOLATED THUNDER POTENTIAL.                           
THE FRONT WILL SWING NORTHEAST THROUGH THE REGION ON THU...WHILE THE            
SYSTEM ITSELF BECOMES VERTICALLY STACKED FOR A SHORT WHILE. THE                 
BETTER LOW LEVEL FORCING WILL ALSO SHIFT NORTHEAST THROUGH THE DAY              
AS A RESULT...WITH THE SHORTWAVE ENERGY ALSO ON ITS HEELS. THIS                 
SHOULD BRING THE BEST RAIN THREAT WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER IN              
THE MORNING...AND THEN EAST FOR THE AFTERNOON. GOOD ENTRAINMENT OF              
DRY AIR POST THE SFC FRONT...PER TIME/HEIGHT X-SECTIONS...AND WILL              
SERVE TO CUTOFF THE PCPN...BUT DON/T EXPECT MUCH CLEARING AT THE                
MOMENT.                                                                         
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE OVER THE REGION ON FRI...WITH MILD/MOIST AIR               
WRAPPING WELL AROUND THE LOW CENTER. THIS WILL LEAD TO MORE PCPN FOR            
FRI AND SAT...WITH THE SYSTEM EXITING INTO SOUTHEAST CANADA LATE IN             
THE WEEKEND. HOWEVER...COLDER AIR WILL FLOW IN BEHIND THE LOW...AND             
WILL CHANGE THE PCPN CHANCES FROM RAIN TO RAIN/SNOW OR JUST SNOW. AS            
FOR ACCUMULATIONS...RECENT WARMTH SHOULD KEEP MOST ROADS JUST                   
WET...BUT GRASSY SFCS COULD HOLD SOME SNOW. THE 12Z COBB OUTPUT VIA             
THE GFS AND NAM WOULD DROP 1-3 INCHES AT RST FROM LATE FRI NIGHT                
THROUGH SAT. LOOKING AT PREVIOUS COBB OUTPUT...THE TREND IS TO                  
START ACCUMULATIONS SOONER WITH THE 12Z RUN COMPARED TO PREVIOUS                
RUNS...THUS LEADING TO A BIT MORE SNOW ACCUMULATION. FEEL THIS IS               
OVERDONE AT THE MOMENT...ESPECIALLY THE 3 INCH AMOUNT...BUT                     
AGAIN...SOME SNOW ON GRASSY SURFACES ISN/T OUT OF THE QUESTION.                 
BETTER CHANCES LIKELY TO THE WEST...WHERE THE COLDER AIR AND BEST               
FORCING/MOISTURE WILL BE TOGETHER LONGER.                                       
THE STRETCH OF MILD DAYS WILL COME TO AN END ON FRIDAY...AS THE COLD            
AIR WITH THE LOW FULLY SPREADS ACROSS THE REGION. HIGHS IN THE 40S              
WILL RETURN...WITH THIS RETURN TO COLDER TEMPERATURES CONTINUING                
INTO NEXT WEEK.                                                                 
LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY                                            
WHILE THE OVERALL UPPER LEVEL PATTERN IS SIMILAR BETWEEN THE GFS AND            
ECMWF...THE DETAILS ON WHERE VARIOUS PACKETS OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY                
WILL TRACK...TIMING/PLACEMENT...ARE QUITE VARIABLE. THEY DO AGREE               
UPON PUSHING THE 500 MB TROUGH/LOW FROM THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES THIS            
WEEKEND INTO SOUTHEAST CANADA FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS ALLOWS FOR              
SOME WEAK RIDGING TO BUILD IN FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS...WHILE A                
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES EAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE MO              
RIVER VALLEY. AT THE SFC...BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS DROP A CANADIAN               
HIGH ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY FOR THE START OF THE             
NEW WORK WEEK...WHICH WOULD HELP TO KEEP THAT SOUTHERN SHORTWAVE TO             
THE SOUTH. SO...SENSIBLE WEATHER-WISE...THE MODEL DIFFERENCES MAY               
NOT HAVE A BIG IMPACT LOCALLY. THE GFS/ECMWF DO AGREE THAT THE                  
COLDER TEMPS WILL SETTLE IN...WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE 40S THROUGH AT             
LEAST THE MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK.                                             
&&                                                                              
AVIATION...                                                                     
LARGE STORM SYSTEM OVER SOUTH DAKOTA WILL EDGE EAST TOWARD THE AREA             
THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY. BIGGEST QUESTION WITH THIS SYSTEM IS WHEN WILL            
THE ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION IMPACT THE TAF SITES. THE NEW 05.12Z               
NAM AND NMMWRF MODELS NOW SUGGEST THAT THE GREATEST CONCENTRATION OF            
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD OCCUR TO THE SOUTH OF THE TAF SITES            
THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY AS THE MAIN SHORT WAVE TROUGH ROTATES AROUND               
THE BASE OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW AND INTERSECTS THE LOW LEVEL JET TO             
PRODUCE WIDESPREAD RAINS ACROSS CENTRAL IOWA AND POINTS SOUTH. THE              
MAIN BRANCH OF LOW LEVEL JET DOES NOT GET INTO THE AREA UNTIL LATE              
TONIGHT SO HAVE PUSHED BACK THE TIMING OF THE CATEGORICAL RAIN AND              
MVFR VISIBILITY UNTIL THE 12 TO 15Z TIME FRAME. THERE IS ENOUGH                 
MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO THE AREA AFTER 06Z TO MOST LIKELY PRODUCE               
SOME SCATTERED ACTIVITY AND WILL HAVE VICINITY SHOWERS TO COVER                 
THIS. SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY IS PRESENT BUT CONFIDENCE ON WHEN               
AND WHERE ANY THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE                  
ANYTHING MORE THAN A CB QUALIFIER AT THIS POINT. ONCE THE RAIN                  
BEGINS EXPECT BOTH MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITY TO BE PRESENT.                  
04                                                                              
&&                                                                              
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
WI...NONE.                                                                      
MN...NONE.                                                                      
IA...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
RIECK                                                                           
</pre> wi                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA                                       
100 AM EST THU NOV 6 2008                                                       
.AVIATION...                                                                    
EASTERN FRINGE OF LOW LVL JET INVOF 1500FT AGL TO CONTINUE UNTIL                
MID/LATE AM UNTIL SUFFICIENT HEATING WL ALLOW FOR INVERSION TO                  
MIXOUT WITH WIND PROFILE BECMG MORE HOMOGENEOUS. 35KT LLJ PER RUC AT            
925MB INTO KSBN WHILE SIG LESS/AOB 20-25KTS INVOF KFWA WHERE WS                 
PRESENCE SHOULD REMAIN LESS PROBLEMATIC. NEXT FOCUS ON APPROACHING              
COLD FRONT WITH CONVECTIVE POTNL BYD 07/00UTC WHERE TIMING AND                  
LIMITED SFC BASED INSTABILITY PRECLUDES NEED FOR TSRA MENTION ATTM.             
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)                                  
WARM TEMPERATURES AGAIN ON THURSDAY CLOSE OUT A WONDERFUL ABOVE                 
NORMAL STRETCH AS TROFING TAKES OVER BEHIND FRONTAL PASSAGE THURSDAY            
EVENING USHERING IN A RETURN TO REALITY.  UPR TROF CLOSING OFF TODAY            
OVER CENTRAL US MOVES EAST WITH ASSOC SFC LOW AND BECOMES NEARLY                
VERTICALLY STACKED BY FRI NIGHT. MODELS GENERALLY IN GOOD AGREEMENT             
THROUGH THE PD AND WITH SFC LOW OCCLUDING AND STACKED SYSTEM SLOWING            
DOWN...FOLLOWED NAM WHICH IS SLOWEST AMONG MODEL GUIDANCE.                      
INSTABILITY WITH FRONT IS CONFINED TO A NARROW BAND ALONG THE BNDRY             
WHICH LEAVES THE CWA WARM AND SUNNY YET AGAIN FOR THURSDAY.  H85                
TEMPS/TRAJECTORIES/FCST SOUNDINGS ALL POINT TO HEAVILY WEIGHTING                
PERSISTENCE FOR SUNNY HIGH TEMPS IN THE LOW 70S ONCE AGAIN.                     
WITH FRONTAL TIMING SLATED FOR THU EVENING EFFECTS BEGIN TO ARRIVE              
IN WESTERN CWA NEAR 00Z. INSTABILITY IS LACKING IN GENERAL AND WHAT             
IS PRESENT IS LOCATED IN A CORRIDOR ALONG THE BNDRY.  H85/H92 WINDS             
AROUND 40KT ACROSS MOST OF CWA IN 12Z NAM...WHILE GFS CONSERVATIVELY            
BRUSHES ONLY NW PORTIONS AS LL JET TRANSLATES INTO MICHIGAN. COLD               
AIR ALOFT IS LAGGING AND STRONGER MID LEVEL WINDS ALSO REMAIN POST              
FRONTAL. NAM BUFR SOUNDINGS PRODUCE ONLY A THIN WINDOW OF                       
INSTABILITY WITH MUCAPES NEAR 300 J/KG ALONG WESTERN CWA DIMINISHING            
AS BNDRY TRANSLATES EAST IN A 30-40KT 0-3KM BULK SHEAR ENVIRONMENT.             
SIGNS POINT TO A POSSIBLE LINE OF WEAK/MODERATE CONVECTION                      
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST ALONG OR JUST AHEAD OF BNDRY IN AN AXIS OF            
STRONGEST LL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE...WEAKENING AS IT MOVES EWARD                 
THROUGH THE CWA. CONCERN IS FOR STRONG WIND GUSTS POSSIBLE WITH 40              
KT WINDS ALOFT WHICH COULD MIX DOWN...PARTICULARLY NORTHWEST CWA                
WHERE THERE IS BETTER CHANCE OF WEAK INSTABILITY BEING REALIZED.                
MAINTAINED OVERALL THEME OF POP/SKY WITH TWEAKS FOR INITIAL TIMING              
IN THE WEST AS WELL AS CLEARING BEYOND 06Z AS DRY SLOT MOVES INTO               
THE AREA BEHIND THE BNDRY. OVERNIGHT TEMPS REMAIN SIMILAR TO                    
PREVIOUS NIGHTS WITH COLDER AIR NOT ARRIVING IMMEDIATELY BEHIND                 
PASSAGE.                                                                        
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)                                         
...COLD WEEKEND IN STORE FOR THE REGION...                                      
NAM/GFS VARY IN TRACK OF THE UPPER LOW AND ASSOCIATED POOL OF COLD              
AIR. THE TRACK WILL PLAY A KEY ROLE FOR PRECIP CHANCES MAINLY SAT               
AND SUNDAY.                                                                     
AT THE START OF THE PERIOD MODELS SHOW A LARGE GRADIENT IN 850 TEMPS            
FROM WEST TO EAST IN THE WAKE OF THE OCCLUDED FRONT WITH VALUES                 
RANGING FROM +1 WEST TO +8 C EAST. UPPER LOW ON THE NAM IS PROGGED              
TO BE CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN MINNESOTA WITH GFS OVER NW IOWA. MODELS            
GENERALLY AGREE ON WHAT APPEARS TO BE A NICE DRY SLOT IN BETWEEN THE            
OCCLUDED FRONT AND THE MAIN TROUGH AND UPPER LOW. 850 MB TEMPS LOWER            
AS THEY SPREAD ACROSS THE CWA BUT THEN SLOW AS THE UPPER LOW BEGINS             
TO SLOW ITS EASTWARD PROGRESS SOME. THIS WILL MAKE FOR A PROBLEMATIC            
TEMP FORECAST ON FRIDAY WITH TEMPS ACTUALLY WARMING BACK INTO THE               
UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S INTO EARLY AFTERNOON. AFTER COLLABORATION...             
HAVE DECIDED TO ADD SOME DETAIL TO FRIDAY AND REMOVE POPS FOR PARTS             
OF THE DAY WITH LINGERING POPS EAST EARLY THEN A DRY PERIOD FOR ALL             
FOLLOW BY CHC POPS ARRIVING BACK IN THE NW LATE.                                
BY 12Z SAT...MODELS VARY EVEN GREATER ON LOCATION OF UPPER LOW WITH             
GFS HAVING THE LOW OVER SW LWR MI WITH 500 MB TEMPS OF -22 TO -26 C             
AND THE NAM FURTHER WEST AND NORTH OVER SOUTHERN WISCONSIN AND 500              
MB TEMPS OF -23 TO -26 C.  LATE FRI NGT INTO SATURDAY APPEARS TO BE             
THE NEXT BEST WINDOW FOR PRECIP WITH S/W ROUNDING THE                           
TROUGH...COLDEST AIR ALOFT OVERHEAD AND FAVORABLE TIME OF DAY. MAY              
NEED TO INCREASE POPS FURTHER BUT FOR NOW HAVE WENT HIGH CHC NORTH              
TO LOW CHC SOUTH FOR SATURDAY. THERMAL PROFILES WILL ALSO BE A                  
CHALLENGE WITH SOME HINTS OF MAYBE HAVING TO MIX IN A CHC OF SNOW               
AS 1000-850 MB THICKNESSES DROP TO AROUND 1290 M. NO CHANGES BEYOND             
THAT AS NEXT PUSH OF COLD AIR TO ARRIVE ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY.                   
CONCERNED THAT TEMPS MAY NOT BE COLD ENOUGH POSSIBLY INTO MONDAY                
WITH BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SUGGESTING HIGHS STRUGGLING TO CLIMB OUT OF               
THE 30S IN SOME AREAS. WILL HOLD POPS THROUGH SUNDAY BUT SOME CHANCE            
THAT THINGS COULD NEED TO BE EXPANDED IN COLD NW FLOW AND POTENTIAL             
SETUP FOR LAKE EFFECT AGAIN.                                                    
HIGH PRESSURE WILL EVENTUALLY BUILD IN COMPLETELY AND BRING AN END              
TO THE PRECIP CHANCES AND ALSO APPEARS TO KEEP THE NEXT SYSTEM                  
COMPRESSED TO THE SOUTH AT THIS POINT. SO WILL GO DRY INTO THE NEW              
DAY 7.                                                                          
&&                                                                              
.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
IN...NONE.                                                                      
MI...NONE.                                                                      
OH...NONE.                                                                      
LM...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHORT TERM...LUDINGTON                                                          
LONG TERM...FISHER                                                              
AVIATION...MURPHY                                                               
</pre> in                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS                                            
1028 PM MST WED NOV 5 2008                                                      
.UPDATE...QUICK UPDATE SENT TO ISSUE THE HIGH WIND WARNING. LATEST              
MODEL RUNS AND UPSTREAM OBSERVATIONS HAVE PROVIDED ENOUGH CONFIDENCE            
THAT WARNING CRITERIA WILL BE REACHED BASICALLY NORTH OF                        
INTERSTATE 70 NEAR OR SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE. STRONG AREA OF                     
SUBSIDENCE ROUNDING THE UPPER LOW COMBINED WITH PRESSURE GRADIENT               
AT THE SURFACE SHOULD RESULT IN SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 40 MPH AND                 
GUSTS UP TO 60 MPH. WINDS WILL SUBSIDE AROUND SUNSET ON THURSDAY.               
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 448 PM MST WED NOV 5 2008/                          
THE 20Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE TEXAS                
PANHANDLE TO EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWING THE              
UPPER LOW OVER CENTRAL COLORADO. KGLD RADAR DETECTING SOME LIGHT                
SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES MAINLY OVER THE NORTHWEST AND FAR SOUTHERN                 
ZONES.                                                                          
THE UPPER LOW IS PROGGED TO MOVE NORTHEAST INTO CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA            
TONIGHT. NORTHWEST FLOW WILL TAKE OVER ON THURSDAY AND CONTINUE                 
THROUGH SATURDAY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EASTWARD INTO THE            
CENTRAL PLAINS BEHIND THE EXITING TROUGH.                                       
THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUES ARE WIND ON THURSDAY AND WHETHER ANY POPS              
WILL BE NEEDED FOR TONIGHT/THURSDAY.                                            
THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS UP THURSDAY BEHIND THE                   
EXITING LOW PRESSURE. LATEST GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT WINDS WILL                 
SATISFY CRITERIA FOR A WIND ADVISORY ON THURSDAY OVER THE CWA. THE              
NAM AND GFS FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE SUSTAINED WINDS OF 30+ KTS              
WITH POTENTIAL GUSTS TO 45KTS OVER MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE               
RUC ALSO SUPPORTS THE WIND ADVISORY WITH SUSTAINED WINDS OF GREATER             
THAN 30KTS AND GUSTS GREATER THAN 40 KTS. BASED ON THIS HAVE ALREADY            
ISSUED A WIND ADVISORY FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA FOR                         
THURSDAY...SEE DETAILS BELOW.                                                   
FOR POPS...DYNAMICS MOVE TO THE SOUTHEAST AND NORTH THIS EVENING AND            
THEN TOWARD 12Z THURSDAY WRAPAROUND DYNAMICS START TO AFFECT THE                
NORTHEAST ZONES. THIS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH ABOUT 18Z THURSDAY.                 
CONSEQUENTLY HAVE RELIED ON SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR THESE BASED UPON             
MARGINAL NATURE OF THIS SYSTEM SO FAR. HOWEVER EXPECT WRAPAROUND TO             
HAVE BETTER MOISTURE THURSDAY MORNING AND FOR THAT REASON HAVE                  
INCREASE POPS TO CHANCE OVER THE MCK AREA. FORECAST SOUNDINGS                   
INDICATE PRECIPITATION EAST OF COLORADO SHOULD BE LIQUID BUT CANNOT             
RULE OUT SOME SNOW MIXING IN OVER YUMA COUNTY COLORADO. SOUNDINGS               
ARE NOT ALL THAT SATURATED AT LOWER LEVELS SO PRECIPITATION MAY HAVE            
DIFFICULTY REACHING THE SURFACE. SUBSIDENCE TAKES OVER ACROSS THE               
ENTIRE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUES THROUGH SATURDAY.             
850MB TEMPERATURES WILL KEEP MAX TEMPERATURES COOL IN THE UPPER 40S ON          
THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL START MODERATING ON FRIDAY WITH ABOVE               
NORMAL READINGS NEAR 60 ON SATURDAY. MIN TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO            
THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.                      
IN THE EXTENDED...DIFFERENCES STILL REMAIN BETWEEN THE GFS AND THE              
ECMWF. THE GFS IS MUCH WEAKER WITH THE SYSTEM THAN THE ECMWF. THE               
ECMWF DIVES SOUTH AND THEN COMES BACK NORTH ACROSS THE FORECAST                 
AREA. DUE TO THE LACK OF AGREEMENT WILL CONTINUE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS             
FOR A RAIN/SNOW MIX FOR SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT ESPECIALLY            
SINCE THE GFS HAS WEAK DYNAMICS. 850 TEMPERATURES FALL BELOW ZERO ON            
MONDAY AND STAY COLD THROUGH WEDNESDAY. MAX TEMPERATURES START IN               
THE LOWER 50S ON SUNDAY AND THEN COOL INTO THE MID 40S MONDAY                   
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. MIN TEMPERATURES SHOULD FALL INTO THE MID/UPPER              
20S.                                                                            
FS                                                                              
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
432 PM MST WED NOV 5 2008                                                       
FOR THE 00Z TAF CYCLE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN AT                
KGLD..ALTHOUGH CEILINGS WILL DROP TO NEAR MVFR CONDITIONS BY 12Z.               
FOR KMCK...MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AFTER 09Z. OF GREATEST CONCERN          
WILL BE THE WINDS TOMORROW. BETWEEN 09Z AND 12Z...EXPECT WINDS                  
FROM THE NORTHWEST TO INCREASE TO THE 20G30KT RANGE. BY                         
15Z...WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE YET AGAIN TO THE 30G45KT                   
RANGE AND LAST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD. LIGHT RAIN              
SHOWERS MAY OCCASIONALLY MIX WITH LIGHT SNOW...BUT DO NOT EXPECT                
ANY SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS.                                                  
BLM                                                                             
&&                                                                              
&&                                                                              
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
KS...HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 5 AM MST /6 AM CST/ TO 7 PM MST /8 PM               
     CST/ THURSDAY FOR KSZ001>004-013>016.                                      
     WIND ADVISORY FROM 5 AM MST /6 AM CST/ TO 7 PM MST /8 PM CST/              
     THURSDAY FOR KSZ027>029-041-042.                                           
NE...HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 5 AM MST /6 AM CST/ TO 7 PM MST /8 PM               
     CST/ THURSDAY FOR NEZ079>081.                                              
CO...HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 5 AM TO 7 PM MST THURSDAY FOR COZ090-091.           
     WIND ADVISORY FROM 5 AM TO 7 PM MST THURSDAY FOR COZ092.                   
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</pre> ks                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
1240 AM EST WED NOV 5 2008                                                      
UPDATED FOR 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION                                             
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC SHOWING A LOW CENTER EMBEDDED IN DEEP               
TROUGH OVER NORTHERN AND MIDDLE HIGH PLAINS. WEAK SHORTWAVES EJECTED            
OUT AHEAD OF THIS TROUGH ARE OVER CENTRAL MINNESOTA INTO CENTRAL                
ONTARIO. DEEPER SHORTWAVES ARE OVER WESTERN NEBRASKA. SURFACE                   
ANALYSIS DEPICTS A CLOSED LOW NEAR KFSD. A FRONTAL SYSTEM EXTENDS               
NORTHEAST FROM THE LOW THROUGH NORTHERN MINNESOTA TO SOUTHERN TIP OF            
JAMES BAY...WHILE A COLD FRONT DRAPES SOUTH THE CENTRAL PLAINS. A               
STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE LOW CONTINUES TO DRAW WARM MOIST             
AIR INTO THE FORECAST AREA. ISENTROPIC ASCENT...SHORTWAVE ENERGY AND            
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ARE GENERATE SOME THUNDERSTORMS OVER MINNESOTA               
AND IOWA THIS AFTERNOON.                                                        
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT AND THURSDAY)...                                           
THE MID LEVEL WILL OVER WESTERN NEBRASKA WILL SHIFT EAST INTO                   
EASTERN NEBRASKA. SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL SHIFT THROUGH MINNESOTA AND             
WESTERN U.P. THIS AFTERNOON REACHING NORTHEAST NEBRASKA OVERNIGHT.              
THE SURFACE LOW WILL BECOME MORE FOCUSED OVER NORTHERN IOWA AND                 
SOUTHERN MINNESOTA TONIGHT. A FRONTAL SYSTEM LEADING THIS LOW WILL              
CONTINUE TO STRETCH NORTHEAST BUT WILL START TO SETTLE SOUTH INTO               
WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR OVERNIGHT. A TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL BE                  
DRAPED SOUTH INTO MIDDLE AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. WARM               
MOIST AIR WILL CONTINUE TO BE LIFTED NORTH AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL                 
SYSTEM. 850-500MB Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE WILL BE CONFINED TO THE                  
WESTERN U.P. THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. A 45 TO 50 KNOT LOW LEVEL              
JET EAST OF THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO DRAW MORE MOISTURE INTO THE              
AREA. AN UPPER LEVEL JET MAX WILL BE OVER JAMES BAY AND EASTERN                 
NEBRASKA INTO SOUTHERN MINNESOTA. TOGETHER THESE ARE PRODUCING SOME             
UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE OF THE WESTERN U.P. TONIGHT. THUS WILL KEEP A            
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE WEST TONIGHT CLOSER TO             
THE FRONT AND LOW CENTER.                                                       
THE MID LEVEL LOW WILL LIFT INTO SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA. THE WEAK                  
SHORTWAVE EJECTED OUT OF THE BASE OF THE LOW WILL SWEEP INTO                    
SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA AND EASTERN IOWA. THE SURFACE LOW WILL LIFT                 
NORTH INTO CENTRAL MINNESOTA. THE COLD FRONT WILL LIFT OUT OF THE               
UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY INTO NORTHEAST WISCONSIN ON THURSDAY.            
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUE TO SHIFT OVERSPREAD THE AREA AHEAD OF               
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THE STRONGEST Q-VECTORS CONVERGENCE AND                   
ISENTROPIC ASCENT WILL BE OVER THE WESTERN U.P. TEMPTED TO DROP THE             
MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS FOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON DUE TO THE EXPECTED             
LOW CAPE AND K-INDEX AND HIGH LIFTED INDEX READINGS. HOWEVER...THERE            
STILL DOES APPEAR TO BE SOME 300MB DIVERGENCE...MARGINAL 850-500MB              
LAPSE RATES AND STRONG ENOUGH LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR TO AT LEAST KEEP             
A MENTION FOR NOW.                                                              
.LONG TERM (THU NIGHT THROUGH NEXT WED)...                                      
THU NIGHT AND FRI...AT 00Z FRI...A NEARLY VERTICALLY STACKED LOW                
SHOULD BE SITUATED IN SW MN...WITH A 990S MB SFC LOW. THE ASSOCIATED            
UPPER TROUGH THE UPPER LOW IS IN LOOKS TO BE NEUTRAL OR POSSIBLY                
EVEN SOMEWHAT NEGATIVELY TILTED...STRETCHING SE INTO ILLINOIS.                  
MAJORITY OF THE MODELS (EXCLUDING THE NAM) PROG THE UPPER LOW TO                
GRADUALLY PUSH EAST DURING THIS PERIOD WHILE THE NEGATIVELY TILTED              
PORTION LIFTS UP INTO UPPER MI. THE 500MB HEIGHT FALLS THU NIGHT ARE            
QUITE IMPRESSIVE...BETWEEN 100-120 DAM. THESE HEIGHT                            
FALLS...COMBINED WITH A STREAM OF 1-1.25 INCH PRECIPITABLE WATER                
VALUES SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT A BAND OF SHOWERS TO MOVE SW TO              
NE ACROSS UPPER MICHIGAN THU NIGHT. WITH CONTINUED GOOD MODEL                   
AGREEMENT ON QPF...RAISED POPS TO CATEGORICAL IN MOST AREAS. DRY                
SLOT COMES IN BEHIND THIS BAND OF SHOWERS...TAPERING OFF THE PCPN.              
STILL MAINTAINED SOME 20 POPS BEHIND THE PCPN...MOSTLY IF THE TIMING            
NEEDS TO BE ADJUSTED WITH LATER RUNS. HOWEVER...IT STILL SEEMS                  
REASONABLE TO ASSUME THAT THE MAJORITY OF PCPN WILL FALL THU NIGHT.             
DID KEEP SOME LOWER CLOUD COVER...BUT DID NOT GO AS LOW AS MIGHT BE             
EXPECTED AS THE SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THE POSSIBILITY OF A LOW CLOUD                
DECK DEVELOPING IN THE WAKE OF THE RAIN (PER NAM/GFS SOUNDINGS).                
SOME WRAP-AROUND SHOWERS...ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROWAL...COULD WRAP              
BACK INTO WESTERN UPPER MICHIGAN ON THE NW SIDE OF THE UPPER                    
LOW...PRIMARILY IN THE AFTERNOON...AND THEREFORE HAVE SOME HIGHER               
POPS THERE. BROUGHT LOW TEMPERATURES UP A BIT CLOSER TO MET GUIDANCE            
GIVEN PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER...RAIN AND HIGH DEWPOINTS. HIGHS ON                 
FRIDAY WERE ALSO RAISED SLIGHTLY GIVEN POSSIBILITY FOR SOME SUN.                
HOWEVER...LATER FORECASTS MAY NEED TO ASSESS THE NEED FOR FOG.                  
FRI NIGHT AND SAT...THE WARM DAYS WE HAVE HAD LOOK LIKE THEY ARE                
GOING TO COME TO AN END...AT LEAST FOR A WHILE. UPPER LOW SHOULD                
CONTINUE TO PUSH EAST DURING THIS PERIOD...REACHING SE ONTARIO BY               
00Z. AS THE UPPER LOW CROSSES INTO WRN LOWER MI BY 12Z SAT...THE                
AREA BECOMES ENCOMPASSED BY THE TROWAL REGION. PCPN AMOUNTS DO NOT              
LOOK OVERLY IMPRESSIVE AT THIS TIME WITHIN THE TROWAL...ENOUGH TO               
WARRANT CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS. LIKELY POPS ARE MOSTLY CONFINED TO               
AREAS THAT CAN SEE SOME LAKE ENHANCEMENT OR UPSLOPE AS 850MB TEMPS              
FALL TO -2 TO -4C. OVERALL...PCPN TYPE WILL BE RAIN GIVEN THAT THE              
WET-BULB ZERO HEIGHTS ARE PROGGED TO STAY AT 2000-3000 FT OR EVEN               
HIGHER THROUGH THE NIGHT. HOWEVER...MORE COLD AIR IS INDICATED TO               
COME DOWN ON SAT AS THE UPPER LOW HEADS INTO ONTARIO...WITH 850MB               
TEMPS DROPPING TO -4 TO -8C BY 00Z SUN...COOLEST WEST. THE AIR                  
SHOULD BE COLD ENOUGH TO TRANSITION THE PCPN TYPES FROM RAIN TO                 
SNOW. NOT LOOKING FOR MUCH SNOW...THOUGH...DUE TO MOST OF THE                   
VERTICAL MOTION OCCURRING AT TEMPS ABOVE -10C...SFC TEMPS WILL                  
LIKELY BE AT LEAST IN THE MID 30S...AND THE WARM GROUND. ON THE                 
OTHER HAND...ANY SNOW THAT DOES ACCUMULATE SHOULD BE WET GIVEN A                
FAVORABLE PROFILE FOR AGGREGATION. THEREFORE...SNOW TO WATER RATIOS             
ARE EXPECTED AT OR BELOW 10 TO 1. SAT SHOULD BE QUITE BREEZY AS                 
WELL...ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTN AS THE SFC LOW HEADS OFF INTO NE                  
ONTARIO.                                                                        
SAT NIGHT THROUGH WED...UPPER LEVEL PATTERN IS STILL FORECAST TO                
CHANGE TO SPLIT FLOW BY ALL EXTENDED MODELS...PRIMARILY AFTER THE               
UPPER TROUGH THAT IS OVER THE AREA COMPLETELY EJECTS OUT INTO QUEBEC            
AND NEW ENGLAND. THE TIMING OF THIS EJECTION VARIES SOMEWHAT...WITH             
INDICATIONS OF A FEW SHRTWVS ROTATING THROUGH THE UPPER MICHIGAN ON             
THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE TROUGH...WHICH SLOWS DOWN THE EJECTION. IN              
ANY EVENT...ALL OF THE MODELS INDICATE THAT BY TUE MORNING THE                  
TROUGH IS OUT OF THE CWA...RIDGING BUILDS UP OVER THE NORTHERN                  
PLAINS AND A FAIRLY LARGE HIGH BUILDS INTO THE AREA AT THE                      
SURFACE. AFTER TUE...THE RIDGE IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS BUILDS INTO               
UPPER MI...WHILE SOME SHRTWV TROUGH CROSSES THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. NEW            
12Z ECMWF/GFS AGREE WITH THE PREVIOUS RUNS...MAKING THE EXTENDED                
FORECAST A BIT MORE CONFIDENT.                                                  
REGARDING DETAILS...SAT NIGHT THROUGH MON NIGHT WILL BE ON THE COOL             
SIDE THANKS TO NORTH TO NORTHWEST FLOW FROM THE SURFACE TO 500MB                
BRINGING COLD AIR DOWN FROM CENTRAL CANADA. 850MB TEMPS FROM THE 00Z            
ECMWF DROP TO -10 TO -12C BY 12Z SUN...AND THEN EVEN FALL FURTHER TO            
-12 TO -14C BY 12Z MON THANKS TO ONE OF THE SHRTWVS DROPPING SOUTH              
ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE UPPER TROUGH. READINGS THEN START CLIMBING              
UP MON NIGHT TO -8 TO -10C BY 12Z TUE. OVERALL...THE AIR IS PLENTY              
COLD ENOUGH TO PRODUCE LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS...AND SINCE THE WIND            
FLOW IS PRIMARILY OUT OF THE NW...THE NW FLOW AREAS OF THE WESTERN              
U.P. AND EAST OF MARQUETTE ARE FAVORED FOR PCPN. AFTER SAT NIGHT...             
THERE MAY NOT BE MUCH PCPN EITHER OVER THE SRN U.P. SINCE THE                   
SHRTWVS DO NOT HAVE MOISTURE TO WORK WITH. THIS MOISTURE                        
AVAILABILITY WILL ALSO AFFECT THE LAKE EFFECT AS WELL...AND GIVEN               
HOW COLD THE AIR IS COMPARED TO THE LAKE SFC...WOULD NOT BE                     
SURPRISED TO SEE SOME HIGHER CLOUD BASES THAN USUAL. THEREFORE...AT             
LEAST RIGHT NOW...NO MAJOR ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED. HAVE DECIDED TO            
CONTINUE SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS INTO TUE MORNING OVER THE EASTERN              
CWA UNTIL ENOUGH DRY AIR AND SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE HIGH                
COMES IN. TUE SHOULD END UP WARMER AS WELL...BUT STILL ON THE COOL              
SIDE WITH 850MB TEMPS BTWN -6 AND -8C. NO PCPN EXPECTED FOR TUE                 
NIGHT AND WED AS UPPER MI REMAINS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF DRY AIR                
FROM THE SFC HIGH. GRADUAL WARMING WILL OCCUR ON WED AS UPPER MI                
GETS ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE HIGH.                                              
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION (FOR THE 06Z TAF ISSUANCE)...                                         
AT KCMX...PERIODS OF -SHRA ARE EXPECTED WHICH ALONG WITH A                      
RELATIVELY MOIST ESE FLOW SHOULD KEEP AT LEAST MVFR CONDITIONS GOING            
INTO THU. BY LATE THU INTO THU EVENING A PERIOD OF STEADY MODERATE              
RAIN IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN IFR CONDITIONS.                                   
AT KSAW...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AS SOME LIGHT            
SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES WILL NOT BE ENOUGH TO LOWER CIGS OR VSBY TOO               
MUCH. BY LATE THU OR THU EVENING...SHRA MOVING IN AHEAD OF A FRONT              
ALONG WITH MOIST SRLY FLOW WILL LOWER CONDITIONS INTO THE MVFR RANGE            
AND THEN INTO THE IFR RANGE BY LATE EVENING.                                    
&&                                                                              
.MARINE (FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)...                       
STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION AHEAD OF A SURFACE LOW OVR THE NORTHERN               
PLAINS WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE GUSTY SOUTH WINDS OVR THE EASTERN               
HALF OF LAKE SUPERIOR THROUGH THURSDAY. HIGH STABILITY WITH NEAR SFC            
BASED INVERSION AND UNFAVORABLE PRESSURE FALL PATTERN FOCUSED TO THE            
SOUTH SHOULD PREVENT ANY GALES. THE SURFACE LOW WILL LIFT TOWARD                
WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR ON FRIDAY THEN ACROSS UPPER MICHIGAN INTO                 
SATURDAY. NORTH WINDS ON BACK SIDE OF THE LOW OVER WESTERN LAKE                 
SUPERIOR LATE FRIDAY NIGHT SHOULD REACH 30 KNOTS PRETTY EASILY WITH             
TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT AND COLD AIR ADVECTION ENHANCING MIXING. THE            
NORTHWEST WINDS TO 30 KNOTS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE REST OF LAKE                 
SUPERIOR SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY...THEN DIMINISH ON MONDAY AS A SURFACE            
RIDGE SETTLES OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS.                                         
&&                                                                              
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
UPPER MICHIGAN...NONE.                                                          
LAKE SUPERIOR...NONE.                                                           
LAKE MICHIGAN...NONE.                                                           
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM...DLG                                                       
LONG TERM...AJ                                                                  
AVIATION...JLB                                                                  
MARINE...DLG/AJ                                                                 
</pre> mi                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN                                              
338 AM CST THU NOV 6 2008                                                       
.DISCUSSION...SLOW MOVING CUT OFF SYSTEM IN THE DAKOTAS WILL                    
DRIFT E OVER MN/IA TODAY...CENTERING OVER WIS AND THE WRN GREAT                 
LAKES FRIDAY. ADJUSTED POPS DOWN IN ERN WIS ZONES TO CHC WITH SCT               
SHRA ISOLD TSRA WORDING THIS MORNING BASED ON CURRENT RADAR TREND               
AND 06Z MODEL RUNS KEEPING THE WIS ZONES DRY THROUGH 18Z.                       
ELSEWHERE THIS MORNING...AND ALL ZONES THIS AFTERNOON...CONTINUED               
DEF POPS AND ISOLD TSTMS. NO SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED ATTM. AT                
09Z THE SFC LOW PRESSURE WAS 992 MB...DEEPER THAN THE                           
GFS/NAM/SHEF/RUC WERE SUGGESTING FOR THIS HR. INCREASED WIND                    
SPEEDS TODAY. IF THE CURRENT PRESSURE CAN BE MAINTAINED AS LOW                  
APPROACHES WIND SPEEDS WILL NEED TO BE INCREASED EVEN FURTHER.                  
WITH 3 FT WAVES ALREADY BEING REPORTED AT THE DULUTH ENTRY AT 3                 
AM...ISSUED A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY. REFER TO NSH/WSW FOR                        
ADDITIONAL MARINE DETAILS.                                                      
FCST CHALLENGES CONCERNING TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF DRY SLOT                     
WRAPPING INTO THE SYSTEM OVER THE SRN AND ERN ZONES                             
TONIGHT/FRIDAY. MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO POP/QPF GRIDS DURING THIS                  
TIME...MAINLY TO DECREASE POPS IN FAR EAST. UNCERTAINTY REMAINS IN              
TIMING AND STRENGTH OF CAA WITH PHASE TRANSITION FRIDAY/SAT. BUFR               
SOUNDINGS SHOW RA/SN TRANSITION IN THE WRN FA...INL TO BRD...TAKES              
PLACE LATE FRI AFTRN/EARLY EVENING. ELSEWHERE...PROFILE SUPPORTS                
ALL RA FRIDAY. CHANGE OVER TO SN FROM WEST TO EAST EXPECTED                     
THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SAT. ATTM...ALL SN EXPECTED SAT NIGHT/SUN.            
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN LIGHT...A DUSTING UP TO               
AN INCH OR TWO TOTAL. THE GREATEST ACCUMULATIONS...A FEW                        
INCHES...EXPECTED ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE OF LAKE SUPERIOR SATURDAY               
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.                                                              
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE WIDESPREAD THROUGH AT                
LEAST 18Z TODAY AS DEEP MOISTURE FLOWS NORTH AHEAD OF A DEEPENING               
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. RAIN SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS...AND              
AREAS OF FOG...WILL BECOME MORE NUMEROUS EARLY THIS MORNING WHILE               
GRADUALLY SPREADING NORTH AND WEST...WITH THE POOREST CEILINGS AND              
VISIBILITIES LIKELY TO OCCUR FROM 12Z-16Z. AS A COLD FRONT DRAWS                
CLOSER TO THE REGION BY THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY                            
EVENING...CEILINGS MAY LIFT SOMEWHAT AS DRIER AIR IS TEMPORARILY                
ADVECTED INTO THE REGION. TOWARD THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD...BY 06Z             
FRIDAY...CEILINGS WILL LOWER ONCE AGAIN...WITH A CONTINUED CHANCE               
FOR SHOWERS AS LOW PRESSURE SLUGGISHLY PUSHES EAST OF THE AREA.                 
&&                                                                              
POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                             
DLH  56  41  45  29 /  90  70  70  50                                           
INL  53  36  40  28 /  80  80  70  40                                           
BRD  52  39  43  30 /  90  70  70  40                                           
HYR  59  43  47  33 /  90  40  70  60                                           
ASX  58  43  47  34 /  90  70  70  60                                           
&&                                                                              
.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
MN...NONE.                                                                      
WI...NONE.                                                                      
LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR LSZ121-              
     LSZ144-LSZ145-LSZ146-LSZ147-LSZ148.                                        
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST FRIDAY FOR LSZ140-LSZ141-              
     LSZ142-LSZ143.                                                             
$$                                                                              
GRANING/GSF/BETTWY                                                              
</pre> mn                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN                              
1139 PM CST WED NOV 5 2008                                                      
.AVIATION... /06Z TAF ISSUANCE/                                                 
MOISTURE TRANSPORT WELL UNDERWAY ACROSS EASTERN MN AND WESTERN WI               
ATTM. SURFACE LOW KS/MO BORDER AREA EXPECTED TO DEEPEN AS IT MOVES              
NORTH INTO THE CWA ON THURSDAY AS STRONG COUPLED JET APPROACHES                 
FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS. EXPECT SHOWERS TO EXPAND WESTWARD                      
OVERNIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING ACROSS THE FA WITH CEILINGS AND                  
VISIBILITIES DETERIORATING TO IFR FOR THE WESTERN TAFS AND MVFR                 
FOR THE EASTERN SITES. THERE SHOULD BE SOME IMPROVEMENT FROM SW TO              
NE DURING THE AFTERNOON AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES EASTWARD ACROSS                  
THE AREA AND SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR WORKS IN FOR A TIME. THE TREND                  
WILL BE BACK DOWN BY EVENING IN THE WEST WITH DRIZZLE AND FOG AS                
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE PROFILES SATURATE ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE LOW                 
PRESSURE SYSTEM.                                                                
&&                                                                              
.DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 307 PM CST WED NOV 5 2008/                               
GOES WV LOOP SHOWING A STRONG UPPER JET DIGGING AROUND THE BASE                 
OF THE LONG WAVE TROUGH POISED OVER THE IMMEDIATE LEE OF THE                    
ROCKIES. THIS MAXIMA WILL EXPAND NORTH NORTHEAST THIS                           
EVENING...OVERRIDING A DEEP AND MOIST WARM SECTOR. SFC LOW AT                   
993MB IN SE SD THIS AFTN WITH BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS CONTINUING                 
AHEAD OF THIS. SFC CAPE EXISTS UP TO THE CENTER OF THE LOW                      
ACCORDING TO DIAGNOSTIC ANALYSIS. THIS LOW PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY              
WORK INTO SWRN MN OVERNIGHT TONIGHT.                                            
AS UPPER SPEED MAX APPROACHES WITHIN DIFFLUENT MID AND UPPER FLOW               
PATTERN AND LOW LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS...AREAL COVERAGE OF SHOWERS               
SHOULD INCREASE THIS EVENING BEGINNING IN SRN MN. THOUGH SFC CAPE               
UNLIKELY TO BE REALIZED IN OUR FORECAST AREA...ELEVATED INSTABILITY             
FROM THAT REGION WILL ADVECT NORTH NORTHEAST INTO THE FORECAST AREA             
THIS EVE AND EARLY OVERNIGHT. MUCAPE VALUES FROM THE 18Z RUC AND NAM            
RUNS ARE ON THE ORDER OF 200-600 J/KG. SIMILAR ELEVATED CAPE EXISTED            
THIS MORNING...AND A FEW STORMS WERE ABLE TO HAVE VIGOROUS ENOUGH               
UPDRAFTS TO HAVE BRIEF SEVERE HAIL. THUNDERSTORMS IN GENERAL WERE               
FAIRLY PLENTIFUL AND HAVE CONTINUED AT THIS LATITUDE OR NORTH IN                
ADJACENT AREAS TODAY. WHILE THE LAPSE RATES ASSOCIATED WITH THE                 
INSTABILITY TONIGHT ARE NOT PROJECTED TO BE AS STEEP AS THIS                    
MORNING...DEEP LAYER SHEAR VALUES WILL BE LARGE. SO THIS MAY HELP TO            
CREATE A FEW SEVERE STORMS...AND IF SO LIKELY THE LAST FEW OF THE               
YEAR. OVERNIGHT IS LIKELY TO SEE MORE RAIN COVERAGE ESPECIALLY IN               
ERN MN AND WRN WI UNDER TONGUE OF DEEPER OMEGA AND MOISTURE. SREF               
PROBABILITIES INDICATE THE POSSIBILITY OF A HALF INCH IN 6 HOURS OR             
GREATER INCREASING TO ABOVE 50 PERCENT IN SOUTHEAST FORECAST                    
AREA. WITH SOME TRAINING AND HIGH PRECIP EFFICIENCY...A HALF INCH OR            
MORE MAY INDEED BE REALIZED IN SOME COMMUNITIES OVERNIGHT. FLOOD                
THREAT LOOKS MINIMAL THOUGH AS ANY HEAVY RAIN CORES SHOULD BE                   
QUICKLY MOVING. BACK IN WRN MN...AS LOW MOVES OVER THE AREA TONIGHT             
BOTH FOG AND DRIZZLE ARE MORE LIKELY THAN RAIN SHOWERS. AND ONE MORE            
NIGHT OF MIN TEMPS ABOVE AVG MAX TEMPS FOR EARLY NOV.                           
THE BEST ISENTROPIC ASCENT SHIFTS NORTH OF OUR AREA BY THURSDAY                 
AFTERNOON... AND IS APPEARS THAT A DECENT DRY SLOT WILL OVERSPREAD              
MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA. HOWEVER... THERE IS A FAIR                  
AMOUNT OF SPREAD IN THE SREF AND SOME DISAGREEMENT BETWEEN THE NAM              
AND GFS ON THE DEPTH OF MOISTURE WHICH WILL LINGER BENEATH THE DRY              
SLOT. SO... ALTHOUGH THE BEST CHANCE FOR PCPN APPEARS TO BE IN THE              
MORNING HOURS... WILL KEEP POPS GOING THROUGH THE DAY...                        
PARTICULARLY OVER THE NORTH AND WEST.                                           
THE SIGNIFICANT ACTION WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO OUR WEST               
THURSDAY NIGHT... WITH ALL OF THE GUIDANCE SHOWING AN IMPRESSIVE                
TROWAL FEATURE AROUND THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE                 
UPPER PV ANOMALY. THE MAIN AXIS OF FRONTOGENESIS WILL BE                        
CORRELATED WITH THIS FEATURE... REMAINING TO OUR WEST THROUGHOUT                
THE TIME PERIOD. OVER OUR AREA... SOME Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE IS                  
ADVERTISED THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY OWING TO THE PRESENCE OF               
THE UPPER LOW. DEEP MOISTURE WILL MOVE BACK INTO THE AREA... WHICH              
WILL COMBINE WITH THE FORCING TO PRODUCE OCCASIONAL LIGHT PCPN.                 
THE TRANSITION FROM RAIN TO SNOW WILL OCCUR FROM SOUTHWEST TO                   
NORTHEAST FROM LATE THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH THE DAY ON FRIDAY...               
WITH PRIMARILY SNOW ANTICIPATED BY FRIDAY NIGHT. FORECAST                       
SOUNDINGS DO NOT SHOW AN ELEVATED WARM LAYER IMPACTED OUR AREA...               
WHICH IS REASONABLE GIVEN THE PRIMARY WARM ADVECTION AND                        
FRONTOGENETICAL ZONE TO OUR NORTHWEST... SO THE RAIN/SNOW LINE                  
WILL BE DEPENDENT UPON TEMPERATURES IN THE 1000-850MB LAYER.                    
GENERALLY FOLLOWED A BLEND OF THE 1000-850MB 1300M THICKNESSES AND              
SREF PROBABILITY OF SNOW PROGS TO TRY AND TIME THE TRANSITION FROM              
RAIN TO SNOW... ALTHOUGH ALSO TRIED TO TAKE INTO ACCOUNT FORECAST               
SURFACE TEMPERATURES DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS. THE STRONGEST                    
FORCING OVER OUR AREA... ALONG THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE PV                       
ANOMALY... LOOKS TO BE OVER THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST... SO SOME                   
ACCUMULATING SNOW IS POSSIBLE THERE... BUT AT THIS POINT DO NOT                 
ANTICIPATE ANYTHING MORE THAN LIGHT AMOUNTS. TRACE AMOUNTS ARE                  
EXPECTED TO THE NORTH AND EAST. FORCING WILL CONTINUE TO WANE                   
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY AS THE SYSTEM SLOWLY FILLS AND                    
EVENTUALLY SLIDE OFF TO THE EAST... WITH THE DEEP MOISTURE                      
DEPARTING WITH IT. WILL LOWER POPS STEADILY FROM WEST TO EAST                   
THROUGH THIS TIME PERIOD.                                                       
THE EXTENDED PERIOD OF THE FORECAST... SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...              
CONTINUES TO LOOK FAIRLY BENIGN ACROSS THE AREA. THE MEDIUM RANGE               
DETERMINISTIC SOLUTIONS HAVE SOME SPREAD IN THEIR HANDLING OF                   
FEATURES... WITH THE PRIMARY FEATURE OF INTEREST BEING A WAVE IN THE            
SOUTHERN STREAM WHICH SCOOTS BY TO OUR SOUTH MONDAY THEN LIFTS                  
NORTHEAST TOWARD THE OHIO VALLEY TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. OUR AREA IS            
GENERALLY IN BAGGY MID-UPPER LEVEL FLOW WITH THIS WAVE TO OUR SOUTH             
AND UPPER RIDGING ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA. WILL FOLLOW THE HPC              
GUIDANCE... WHICH IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN FROM 00Z.            
WITH THAT SAID... HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTH FROM CANADA ON                 
SUNDAY... BRINGING SEASONABLY COOL AND DRY WEATHER. THIS AREA OF                
HIGH PRESSURE LOOKS TO HOLD ON ACROSS THE REGION ON MONDAY... AS LOW            
PRESSURE ORGANIZES OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THERE IS SOME                      
POSSIBILITY THAT SOME PCPN COULD SNEAK INTO THE SOUTHERN CWFA IF                
THIS SYSTEM WINDS UP FARTHER NORTH... BUT THE TREND HAS BEEN FOR IT             
TO STAY SOUTH... SO WILL MAINTAIN THE DRY FORECAST. THE SURFACE LOW             
LIFTS NORTHEAST FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE WESTERN OHIO                  
VALLEY ON TUESDAY... WITH RIDGING HOLDING ON ACROSS OUR REGION. ONCE            
AGAIN... ANY NORTHWARD ADJUSTMENT COULD BRING PCPN INTO THE                     
SOUTHERN/SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES... BUT WILL BANK ON RIDGING AND DRY              
AIR KEEPING THINGS PCPN-FREE OVER OUR AREA. BY WEDNESDAY... THE                 
RIDGE WILL SLIDE FARTHER SOUTH ACROSS OUR AREA AS LOW PRESSURE OVER             
THE OHIO VALLEY LIFTS TOWARD THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. FAIR AND COOL             
CONDITIONS SHOULD PERSIST OVER OUR AREA.                                        
&&                                                                              
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
MN...NONE.                                                                      
WI...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
RAH/TRH                                                                         
</pre> mn                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS                                             
410 AM CST THU NOV 6 2008                                                       
.DISCUSSION...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY...SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT                  
STARTING TO TIGHTEN UP OVER WRN PORTIONS OF CWFA WITH STRATUS                   
EXPANDING ON LATEST LOW CLOUD SATELLITE IMAGERY. WE ALSO ARE SEEING             
LOW CLOUDS/FOG FORMING OVER SERN MS WHERE A FEW LOCATIONS GETTING               
SOCKED IN. WILL HANDLE THE FOG WITH NOWJAN BUT MAY NEED A DENSE FOG             
ADVSY IF CONDS SPREAD TOO MUCH. THESE AREAS SHOULD IMPROVE RATHER               
QUICKLY AFTER SUNRISE AS MIXING PICKS UP LEADING TO PARTLY CLOUDY               
CONDITIONS FOR MUCH OF TODAY AHEAD OF A MODERATE COLD FRONT HEADING             
OUR WAY.                                                                        
TEMPERATURES HAVE REMAINED QUITE MILD OVERNIGHT IN THE 45-60F RANGE             
AND WE SHOULD SEE WIDESPREAD MIDDLE 70S TO AROUND 80F AGAIN THIS                
AFTERNOON. THE DAYLIGHT HOURS BEING MUCH SHORTER NOW...ANY LINGERING            
CLOUDS OVER ONE AREA COULD INHIBIT READINGS FROM HEATING UP                     
COMPLETELY. OTHERWISE...THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH PERIODS OF SUNSHINE              
AHEAD OF SHRA/TSRA DEVELOPMENT.                                                 
LOCAL WRF...GFS AND NAM12 RUNS BRING FIRST BATCH OF RAIN INTO NERN              
LA...SERN AR AND THE DELTA REGION BETWEEN 18-21Z. BEST 0-3KM VEERING            
WIND SHEAR CROSSES THE REGION THIS MORNING WITH DECREASING LOW LEVEL            
FLOW BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS. HOWEVER...THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH                   
MOISTURE(RUC DEWPOINTS APPEAR TO BE RUNNING TOO LOW AT THE MOMENT)              
AND INSTABILITY WITH POCKETS OF 300-600J/KG MLCAPES FOR NUMEROUS                
SHRA/SCATTERED TSRA TO DEVELOP IN THE PRE-FRONTAL CONVERGENCE ZONE.             
DEWPOINTS WILL APPROACH THE REACH LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S AS DEEPER                 
MOISTURE WILL BE ON THE INCREASE BY MID AFTERNOON WITH PWATS NEAR               
1.7 INCHES. THE BULK OF THE FRONTAL FORCING REMAINS TO OUR NW AND N             
DURING THE DAYLIGHT AND WIND FIELDS BECOME MORE UNIDIRECTIONAL THE              
LATER IN THE DAY WE GET.  THE RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER STILL REMAINS             
IN THE SLIGHT CATEGORY OR LOWER AND CONFINED TO THE NWRN THIRD OF               
THE CWFA AS LACKING INSTABILITY AND THE NIGHT TIME FRONTAL PASSAGE              
SEEMS TO KEEP THIS SYSTEM IN CHECK. WILL KEEP MENTION IN THE HWOJAN             
OF A FEW STRONG AND POSSIBLY A SVR STORM OR TWO JUST AHEAD OF THE               
FRONT. THE BEST TIMING FOR THIS WILL BE FROM ABOUT 20Z-02Z ACROSS               
THE NWRN PORTIONS.                                                              
BY TONIGHT...THE SLOWING FRONT AND DIMINSHING INSTABILITY SHOULD                
YIELD A BAND OF SHRA/ISOLATED TSRA STEADILY CROSSING THE AREA FROM              
NW TO SE. THE MAIN AXIS OF PRECIPITATION SHOULD LIE ALONG THE                   
NATCHEZ TRACE CORRIDOR BY ABOUT MIDNIGHT AND SHIFT TO THE SERN                  
COUNTIES CLOSE TO DAYBREAK. QPF AMOUNTS OF ONE HALF TO ONE INCH                 
APPEAR TO BE MOST LIKELY WITH THIS SYSTEM AS THE FRONT REACHES NEAR             
A MERIDIAN-BROOKHAVEN ARE BY 18Z FRIDAY. EXPECT BROKEN AREA OF                  
SHRA/TSRA EARLY FRIDAY AFTERNOON OVER SERN MS WHILE CLEARING RETURNS            
TO THE DELTA REGION. RATHER WEAK CAA SHOULD PUT MOST HIGHS FRIDAY IN            
THE 65-70F RANGE. /40/                                                          
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY...THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO            
EXIT THE FORECAST AREA TO THE EAST FRIDAY NIGHT. SOME LIGHT SHOWER              
ACTIVITY COULD HOLD ON ACROSS EAST AND SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI EARLY IN           
THE PERIOD...BUT BY MIDNIGHT ALL OF THE RAIN SHOULD BE OFF TO THE               
EAST AND OUT OF THE AREA.                                                       
MEANWHILE...AS THE FRONT EXITS STAGE EAST...A COOLER DRIER AIRMASS              
WILL BEGIN TO FILTER INTO THE FORECAST AREA AS HIGH PRESSURE TO THE             
NORTHWEST BUILDS SOUTHEAST INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY.             
THIS WILL IN TURN PROVIDE US WITH VERY PLEASANT AUTUMN CONDITIONS               
THROUGHOUT THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.  CONDITIONS WILL THEN BEGIN TO WARM            
AND SLIGHTLY MOISTEN ON MONDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN FLATTENS              
OUT AND THE LOW LEVEL FLOW BECOMES MORE FROM THE SOUTHEAST.                     
CONFIDENCE IN HOW THE FORECAST WILL PAN OUT REALLY DROPS OFF AFTER              
MONDAY.  BOTH THE GFS AND THE EUROPEAN ARE AT LEAST BRINGING OUR                
NEXT SYSTEM INTO THE FORECAST AREA ON TUESDAY.  HOWEVER...THAT`S                
ABOUT THE ONLY AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE TWO.  THE GFS IS THE MORE                  
PROGRESSIVE OF THE TWO MODELS WITH PUSHING THE SURFACE LOW AND                  
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA BY TUESDAY NIGHT AND            
ESSENTIALLY DRYING US OUT THROUGH MUCH OF WEDNESDAY.  IT THEN BRINGS            
THE NEXT DISTURBANCE INTO AND THROUGH THE AREA THROUGH THE DAY                  
THURSDAY.                                                                       
THE EUROPEAN ON THE OTHER HAND STALLS THE BOUNDARY ASSOCIATED WITH              
TUESDAY`S SYSTEM OVER THE CWA...THEN DEVELOPS AND SENDS A SERIES OF             
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES THROUGH THE FORECAST WEDNESDAY AND AGAIN               
THURSDAY NIGHT.                                                                 
GIVEN THESE DISCREPANCIES IN THE MODELS DURING THE LATTER HALF OF               
THE FORECAST PERIOD...I`LL STICK CLOSE TO GUIDANCE NUMBERS. /19/                
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...LOCATIONS ACROSS CNTRL...ERN...AND SERN MS WILL DEAL                
WITH PATCHY LIFR FOG/LOW CLOUDS BEFORE 14Z THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE              
INCREASING STRATUS DECK OF NEAR 2K FEET OVER WRN HALF OF THE CWFA               
WILL SPREAD EWD THROUGH MIDDAY. ONCE THE SUN IS UP FOR A FEW HRS                
EVERYONE SHOULD BE VFR BY 17Z WITH CLOUD LAYERS GENERALLY ABOVE 4K              
FEET UNTIL SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA DEVELOP 18-21Z W OF THE MS RIVER.                
THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD SPREAD EWD BY 00-03Z REACHING ABOUT THE                
NWRN HALF OF THE CWFA. MOST TAF LOCATIONS WILL DROP TO MVFR CEILINGS            
AND VSBYS BY 06Z TONIGHT LASTING THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY. /40/                       
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
JACKSON       80  59  67  45 /  35  88  61  12                                  
MERIDIAN      80  57  68  40 /  13  68  73  23                                  
VICKSBURG     80  57  68  45 /  55  89  37   9                                  
HATTIESBURG   80  61  70  46 /  11  40  71  27                                  
NATCHEZ       80  59  69  46 /  51  89  58  10                                  
GREENVILLE    76  52  70  44 /  78  80  11   8                                  
GREENWOOD     76  55  68  44 /  66  89  29   9                                  
&&                                                                              
.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
MS...NONE.                                                                      
LA...NONE.                                                                      
AR...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
40/19                                                                           
</pre> ms                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE                                            
1205 AM CST THU NOV 6 2008                                                      
.AVIATION...06Z KGRI TAF. A STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM              
WILL CONTINUE IMPACTING THE CENTRAL PLAINS THROUGH THIS TAF                     
PERIOD...BRINGING A ROUND OF MVFR CEILINGS...LIGHT                              
PRECIPITATION...AND PLENTY OF WIND. ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IN THE                  
TIMING OF THE ONSET OF LOW CEILINGS IS SOMEWHAT LOW...AN OVERCAST               
DECK BETWEEN 1K AND 3K FT SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH MUCH OF THURSDAY               
AND THURSDAY EVENING. LIGHT RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS WRAPPING IN BEHIND                
THE UPPER LOW ARE ALSO LIKELY...ESPECIALLY FROM MID MORNING                     
THROUGH MID AFTERNOON. SOME OF THIS PRECIPITATION COULD LINGER                  
LATER INTO THE EVENING...BUT WILL DEFER TO LATER FORECASTS TO                   
REFINE THIS MATTER. ONE CERTAINTY IS THAT STRONG WEST/NORTHWEST                 
WINDS GUSTING TO OVER 35 KTS WILL BE AROUND FOR THE MAJORITY OF                 
THE PERIOD.                                                                     
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 317 PM CST WED NOV 5 2008/                          
SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...COLD FRONT HAS                    
SLIPPED EAST FASTER THAN EARLIER PREDICTED...THEREFORE PULLED THE               
RUG OUT FROM POPS IN THE EAST CWA. WRAP AROUND WILL EVENTUALLY                  
WORK IN TONIGHT...THURSDAY AND LINGER THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. DOES              
NOT LOOK LIKE VERY MUCH PRECIPITATION AND SNOW AMOUNTS WILL BE                  
LOW. MODELS WERE A BIT ALARMING FROM 06Z RUNS IN REGARD TO                      
POSSIBLE WIND SPEEDS...BUT 12Z RUNS HAVE SHOWN ABOUT A 10 KT                    
REDUCTION...FITTING MORE COMFORTABLY INTO A WIND ADVISORY SCENARIO              
FOR THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT...INSTEAD OF A HIGH WIND WATCH.                     
FOR PRECIPITATION CHANCES...LOOKS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS                       
FORECAST...BUT DID EXTEND LOW CHANCES A BIT FARTHER TO THE SOUTH.               
RE0RIENTED THE SNOW GRIDS A TAD. LOWERED TEMPERATURES A BIT MORE                
FOR THURSDAY HIGHS. HIGHS WILL NOT GO ANYWHERE ON THURSDAY WITH                 
STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION AND PLENTY OF SKY COVER. MAY BE                       
TEMPORARY BOUTS OF REDUCED VISIBILITY WITH SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS               
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...BUT FOR NOW IT DOES NOT LOOK LIKE IT              
WILL BE ENOUGH OF A FACTOR TO INTRODUCE A WINTER WEATHER PRODUCT                
AT THIS TIME. THE MAIN HAZARD WILL BE THE WIND FROM THE NORTHWEST.              
COULD BE A BIT STRONG EXTENDING INTO FRIDAY MORNING...BUT WE CAN                
VISIT THIS LATER AS WE BECOME MORE CONFIDENT. I TENDED TO LIKE THE              
RUC FOR THIS EVENING...THEN LEAN MORE TOWARD A NAM SCENARIO FOR                 
THE PRECIP FIELD FOR THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT.                              
LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.  THE CENTER OF THE POTENT                 
UPPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE LOCATED NEAR THE MINNESOTA AND                
IOWA BORDER ON FRIDAY MORNING.  MODELS DIFFER ON WHETHER OR NOT                 
WRAPAROUND SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES WILL CONTINUE FRIDAY MORNING                
WITH THE GFS MORE ROBUST WITH THIS THAN THE NAM...BUT HAVE CONTINUED            
TO MENTION THE POTENTIAL IN OUR NORTHEAST CWA FOR THE MORNING.                  
LITTLE IF ANY SNOW ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED FRIDAY MORNING.   WINDS             
WILL STILL REMAIN STRONG FROM THE NORTHWEST THROUGH AT LEAST THE                
FIRST HALF OF THE DAY IN A STILL TIGHT SURFACE GRADIENT...UNTIL THE             
SYSTEM LIFTS FARTHER TO THE NORTHEAST AND THE GRADIENT RELAXES.                 
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND THE FRONT ON SATURDAY AND A COOL                 
AIRMASS REMAINS IN PLACE.  MODELS DIVERGE OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO             
NEXT WEEK WITH THE NEXT COUPLE OF SYSTEMS.  THE GFS BACKS IN COLDER             
AIR AND DEVELOPS A FRONTOGENETIC BAND OF PRECIPITATION POSSIBLY                 
BEGINNING AS EARLY AS SATURDAY NIGHT...BUT MORE SO INTO THE SUNDAY              
PERIOD.  THE GFS TEMPERATURE PROFILE IS MUCH COOLER THAN THE ECMWF              
AND SUGGESTS POTENTIAL FOR SOME SNOW.  THE 00Z ECMWF DEVELOPS THE               
PCPN SATURDAY NIGHT TO OUR WEST IN THE HIGH PLAINS IN THE UPSLOPE               
FLOW CONDITIONS...WITH AN OVERALL WARMER/LIQUID TEMPERATURE                     
PROFILE.  THE GEM ALSO SUGGESTS THE POTENTIAL FOR PCPN ON SUNDAY AND            
FEEL BEST BET IS TO MAINTAIN THE STATUS QUO OF LOW POPS FOR NOW                 
UNTIL MODELS COME INTO MORE AGREEMENT.  AND NOW...THE 12Z ECMWF                 
SOLUTION HAS COME AROUND TO MORE OF THE GFS/GEM SOLUTIONS...BUT                 
HOLDS ONTO A WARMER TEMP PROFILE.                                               
ON MONDAY OF NEXT WEEK...A CLOSED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS PROGGED TO             
MOVE EAST ALONG THE SOUTHERN TIER STATES AND LIFT ACROSS OKLAHOMA               
AND KANSAS THRU MONDAY NIGHT.  THE ECMWF FAVORS A STRONGER SOLUTION             
VS THE GFS WHICH FILLS THE SYSTEM AS IT MOVES INTO THE PLAINS.  THE             
GFS IS ALSO COLDER WITH ITS TEMP PROFILE SUGGESTING THE POTENTIAL               
FOR MIXED PCPN OR SNOW...WHEREAS THE ECMWF SUGGESTS MORE OF A                   
RAINFALL EVENT.  HAVE MAINTAINED POPS FOR MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT               
WITH THE INCREASING ISENTROPIC LIFT AND POTENTIAL FOR DEFORMATION               
PCPN.  HAVE KEPT PCPN AS RAIN INITIALLY WITH A R/S MIX AS TEMPS COOL            
ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE SYSTEM MONDAY NIGHT.  THE 12Z ECMWF NOW HAS             
A MORE SOUTHERN TRACK THAN ITS PREVIOUS RUN WHICH SUGGESTS EVEN                 
LESSER OF A CHC FOR PCPN IN OUR CWA...BUT WILL NEED TO WATCH.                   
THE FORECAST DRIES FOR THE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY PERIODS.  OVERALL              
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE EXTENDED HAVE SWUNG TOWARD THE COLDER                  
DIRECTION WITH READINGS BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS.                                 
&&                                                                              
.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
NE...WIND ADVISORY FROM 6 AM THURSDAY TO 6 AM CST FRIDAY FOR                    
     NEZ039>041-046>049-060>064-072>077-082>087.                                
KS...WIND ADVISORY FROM 6 AM THURSDAY TO 6 AM CST FRIDAY FOR                    
     KSZ005>007-017>019.                                                        
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
AVIATION...PFANNKUCH                                                            
</pre> ne                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC                                          
1230 AM EST THU NOV 6 2008                                                      
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
DEEP LOW PRESSURE OFFSHORE FROM THE VIRGINIA CAPES WILL MOVE SLOWLY             
NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT AND THURSDAY...AWAY FROM NORTH CAROLINA.  WEAK              
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA LATE TONIGHT AND PERSIST               
THROUGH FRIDAY. A COLD FRONT MOVING WEST TO EAST...WILL CROSS THE               
CAROLINAS SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE PLAINS STATES WILL RIDGE             
ACROSS THE AREA LATE SATURDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. ANOTHER STORM            
SYSTEM WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST BY MID-WEEK.                                 
&&                                                                              
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...                                                 
AS OF 9 PM WEDNESDAY...BAROTROPIC LOW OFFSHORE FROM THE VA                      
CAPES...TO SLOWLY LIFT NE OVERNIGHT AND THURSDAY. ITS CIRCULATION               
ACROSS THE AREA INVOLVING WINDS AND CLOUDS WILL LIKELY COME TO AN               
END OVERNIGHT...WITH THE COASTAL SE NC THE LAST TO OBSERVE THE                  
CLOUDS AND WINDS.                                                               
MAIN DILEMMA TONIGHT WILL BE THE POSSIBILITY OF FOG AND HOW MUCH OF             
IT. AT 1ST GLANCE...PROCEDURES USING RUC MODEL DATA INDICATE AREAS              
OF FOG WEST OF A LINE FROM ELIZABETHTOWN...WHITEVILLE...AYNOR TO                
KINGSTREE. PATCHY FOG EAST OF THIS LINE TO THE WESTERN COUNTY                   
BOUNDARIES OF PENDER...NEW HANOVER AND BRUNSWICK COUNTIES. THE FOG              
STABILITY INDEX INDICATES DENSE FOG IS A GOOD POSSIBILITY FOR THOSE             
INLAND COUNTIES...IE WEST OF A LINE FROM LUMBERTON...MARION TO                  
KINGSTREE. THE NAMBUFR SOUNDINGS FOR FLO AND LBT ARE MORE                       
REPRESENTATIVE OF A FOG/DENSE FOG OCCURRENCE FOR THURSDAY MORNING.              
ONLY TWEAKED AROUND WITH THE MINS SINCE 1/3RD OF THE AREAS LATEST               
TEMPS HAD REACHED THEIR DEWPOINTS ALREADY...AND DONT SEE MUCH IN THE            
WAY OF CAA TO LOWER THEM TOO MUCH FURTHER.                                      
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...                                  
AS OF 3 PM WEDNESDAY...500 MB HEIGHT RISES WILL OCCUR DURING                    
THURSDAY AS THE UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO LIFT AWAY FROM THE REGION.               
THE H5 RIDGE AXIS WILL PASS OVERHEAD THURSDAY NIGHT...THEN OFF THE              
COAST FRIDAY AS A LARGE UPPER LOW TRANSLATES FROM THE MID-WEST                  
TOWARD THE OH VALLEY. CLOSER TO HOME...WEAK DOWNSLOPE FLOW WILL                 
DEVELOP DURING THURSDAY WHICH WILL HELP TO SCOUR OUT ANY LINGER SCT             
LOW CLOUDS IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING LOW. LOW-LEVEL THICKNESSES              
WILL INCREASE IN THE SHORT TERM TRANSLATING INTO A PERIOD OF ABOVE              
NORMAL TEMPERATURES. HIGHS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WILL GENERALLY BE IN             
THE MID 70S. CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE FROM W-E DURING FRIDAY              
NIGHT AS THE NEXT COLD FRONT APPROACHES. LOW CONFIDENCE IN REGARDS              
TO POPS WITH THIS FEATURE...WITH ONLY SLIGHT CHANCES MAINLY FOR THE             
WESTERN ZONES LATE FRIDAY NIGHT. ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH            
THIS SYSTEM WILL MORE THAN LIKELY BE FOCUSED RIGHT ALONG THE FRONT              
COMING INTO PLAY EARLY ON IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD.                               
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...                                      
AS OF 3 PM WEDNESDAY...THE EXTENDED WILL BE HIGHLIGHTED BY THE                  
PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT SATURDAY FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE WITH YET             
ANOTHER SYSTEM AT THE END OF THE PERIOD. THIS...ALL IN ASSOCIATION              
WITH A PROGRESSIVE PATTERN AT THE MID LEVELS.                                   
THE GFS IS MORE BULLISH IN DEVELOPING AN AREA OF RAIN ACROSS THE                
AREA SATURDAY MORNING MOST LIKELY IN DUE TO INCREASED OMEGA VIA THE             
LEFT EXIT REGION OF THE 200MB JET. MOISTURE REMAINS MARGINAL AND IS             
WITH ALMOST IDENTICAL PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WHEN COMPARED                   
TO YESTERDAYS MODEL RUNS. TWEAKED POPS A BIT TO REPRESENT BETTER                
CHANCES ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES WHERE THE BEST OMEGA                   
RESIDES...OTHERWISE NO CHANGES WITH THIS SYSTEM.                                
A FAST MOVING SHORTWAVE APPROACHES THE AREA TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AT            
THE END OF THE PERIOD AND HAVE MAINTAINED THE LOW CHANCE POPS FOR               
THIS TIME. OBVIOUSLY WITH THE SYSTEM TIMED FOR THE END OF THE PERIOD            
PLUS THE FACT IT APPEARS TO BE EMBEDDED IN A FAST WESTERLY FLOW                 
CONFIDENCE IS LOW. SUNDAY AND MONDAY SHOULD BE DRY.                             
NO CHANGE TO TEMPERATURE FORECAST AS IT APPEARS READINGS WILL NOT               
STRAY A DEGREE OR TWO FROM CLIMATOLOGY.                                         
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...                                      
SKIES ARE CLEAR AT ALL TERMINALS EARLY THIS MORNING. WINDS HAVE                 
BECOME CALM IN PLACES AND AS A RESULT FOG HAS DEVELOPED AND HAS                 
BECOME BRIEFLY DENSE AT TIMES. THIS WILL BE AN ISSUE AT THESE                   
TERMINALS THROUGH SUNRISE WITH IFR/LIFR VISIBILITIES LIKELY TO                  
OCCUR...ALTHOUGH 15-20 KT WINDS JUST 1000 FT UP SHOULD KEEP                     
VISIBILITIES JUMPING UP AND DOWN THROUGH THE NIGHT. DUE TO STRONGER             
WIND SPEEDS IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER FOG DEVELOPMENT IS LESS LIKELY AT             
THE COASTAL TERMINALS...EXCEPT AT CRE WHERE LOCAL EFFECTS WILL ALLOW            
FOR PREDOMINATE MVFR VISIBILITIES WITH TEMPO IFR VISIBILITIES.                  
VFR/CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED ALL TERMINALS AFTER 13Z-14Z WITH NORTHWEST             
WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS BECOMING SOUTHWEST AT THE COASTAL TERMINALS BY            
AFTERNOON.                                                                      
OUTLOOK THROUGH MONDAY...VFR.                                                   
&&                                                                              
.MARINE...                                                                      
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...                                                  
AS OF 9 PM WEDNESDAY...SCEC WAS RAISED ACROSS THE SAME AMZ ZONES                
THAT A SCA EXPIRED AT 7 PM. ONLY HAD TO TWEAK WINDS UP 1 TO 3 KNOTS             
FOR THE OVERNITE GIVEN LATEST READINGS...TRENDS...MODEL DATA.                   
THE SEAS HAVE BEEN ALSO BEEN TWEAKED A FOOT OR 2 HIER...MAINLY                  
ACROSS THE NEAR SHORE. THE MAIN REASON IS THAT THE ESE SWELL AT 11              
SECOND PERIODS CONTINUES TO PUSH 3 TO 5 FOOT SEAS ACROSS THE ILM                
COASTAL WATERS. WITH ONLY A WEAK OFFSHORE WIND AFFECTING IT THROUGH             
THURSDAY...THE SWELL WILL BE SLOWER TO DETERIORATE. IN ADDITION...              
SURF REPORTS FROM WRIGHTSVILLE BEACH LATE THIS AFTERNOON INDICATED 4            
TO 5 FOOT...AND AS MUCH AS 6 FOOT AT TIMES. WITH AN ESE                         
SWELL...BASICALLY THE ENTIRE CWA COASTAL WATERS IS APT TO OBSERVE               
ALL OR PORTION OF THIS SWELL...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE SHADOW                 
EFFECTS FROM FRYING PAN SHOALS. IF IT WAS A TRUE SE SWELL...THEN THE            
SHADOW EFFECTS COULD BE NEGATED.                                                
SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...                                   
AS OF 3 PM WEDNESDAY...WINDS/SEAS WILL DIMINISH/SUBSIDE THROUGH THE             
FIRST HALF OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD...THEN BEGIN TO INCREASE/BUILD              
FRIDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT. SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO                 
RANGE FROM 4 FT AWAY FROM THE COAST TO 2 FT OR LESS INSHORE                     
THURSDAY...SUBSIDING TO 1-3 FT BY THURSDAY NIGHT. RETURN FLOW FRIDAY            
WILL CREATE A SOUTHWESTERLY FETCH ALLOWING SEAS TO BUILD BACK TO                
AROUND 4 FT BY FRIDAY NIGHT.                                                    
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...                                          
AS OF 3 PM WEDNESDAY...LITTLE CHANGE TO THE EXTENDED COASTAL WATERS             
FORECAST THIS AFTERNOON AS VERY MODEST SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL PREVAIL              
SATURDAY TRANSITIONING TO A WEAK WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW BY SUNDAY               
AFTERNOON. THIS IS THE ONLY CHANGE TO THE FORECAST AS THE PUSH                  
BEHIND THE FRONT NOW APPEARS TO BE WEAKER THAN ADVERTISED. LOOK FOR             
RANGES OF 10-15 KNOTS BUT MORE REALISTICALLY NEAR 10 KNOTS. WAVE                
SPECTRUM WILL BE COMPRISED OF A WEAK SWELL COMPONENT FROM THE                   
EAST/SOUTHEAST AND A WEAK WIND WAVE. THIS EQUATES TO THE STANDARD               
2-4 FEET.                                                                       
&&                                                                              
.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
SC...NONE.                                                                      
NC...NONE.                                                                      
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR                   
     AMZ250-252.                                                                
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SYNOPSIS...HOEHLER                                                              
NEAR TERM...HOEHLER                                                             
SHORT TERM...PFAFF                                                              
LONG TERM...KEEBLER                                                             
AVIATION...ROSS                                                                 
</pre> nc                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY                                              
1045 AM EST THU NOV 6 2008                                                      
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
MILD TEMPERATURES WILL CLOSE OUT THE WORK WEEK...WITH A MORE                    
SEASONABLE AIRMASS ARRIVING OVER THE WEEKEND. AN AREA OF LOW                    
PRESSURE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WILL WEAKEN AND DRIFT EASTWARD              
TODAY AND TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD IN ON FRIDAY. A             
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST FRIDAY NIGHT WITH               
THE SYSTEM`S COLD FRONT CROSSING THE AREA SATURDAY.                             
&&                                                                              
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...                                         
AS OF 1040 AM EST...WE HAVE MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE GRIDDED               
DATABASE...MAINLY TO INCH MAX TEMPS UPWARD ACROSS THE UPPER HUDSON              
VALLEY...SW VT...AS WELL AS WITHIN THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS...WHERE              
THINNER CLOUDS SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO REACH THE LOWER/MID 60S BY                 
EARLY AFTERNOON. ELSEWHERE...THICKER CLOUDS AND SOME LIGHT                      
SHOWERS/DRIZZLE SHOULD LIMIT MAX TEMPS FROM RISING MORE THAN 2-4                
DEGREES OVER CURRENT TEMPS...MAINLY HOLDING IN THE UPPER 50S ACROSS             
THE SE CATSKILLS...LITCHFIELD HILLS AND PORTIONS OF THE BERKS...TO              
THE LOWER 60S ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MID HUDSON VALLEY...WARMEST                
CLOSER TO THE CAPITAL REGION.                                                   
AS FOR RAIN...PATCHY LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE IS OCCURRING ACROSS E-FACING            
SLOPES OF THE CATSKILLS/HELDERBERGS...AND WITHIN PORTIONS OF THE                
BERKS AND MID HUDSON VALLEY. THE AREAL COVERAGE OF THIS LIGHT                   
RAIN/DRIZZLE SHOULD INCREASE THROUGH EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...WITH                
SOME SHOWERS/SPRINKLES POSSIBLY REACHING THE CAPITAL REGION AROUND              
OR AFTER NOONTIME. SHOWERS WILL ALSO INCREASE FURTHER ACROSS                    
PORTIONS OF THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT BY MIDDAY...AS CURRENT              
BAND ACROSS NYC/LI LIFTS NNW. THE RUC13 APPEARS TO BE HANDLING THIS             
BAND RATHER WELL...DEPICTED WITHIN THE 850-700 MOISTURE FLUX                    
CONVERGENCE.                                                                    
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...                               
CLOUDS AND NORTH-NORTHEAST FLOW WILL PERSIST ACROSS REGION TONIGHT              
AS LOW MOVES EASTWARD OUT TO SEA AND WEAKENS. SOME LINGERING                    
PRECIPITATION POSSIBLE. UPPER SYSTEM EXPECTED TO FINALLY OPEN ON                
FRIDAY. RIDGING BUILDS IN BRIEFLY BETWEEN THE DEPARTING LOW AND AN              
ADVANCING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FRIDAY. WESTERN PORTIONS OF FORECAST              
AREA MAY GET TO SEE SOME SUN FRIDAY AFTERNOON. MAIN LOW ASSOCIATED              
WITH NEXT SYSTEM WILL PASS WELL TO OUR NORTH AND WEST SATURDAY.                 
ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL SWING THROUGH ON SATURDAY. HAVE                  
POPS INCREASING FRIDAY NIGHT ESPECIALLY AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH LIKELY              
FOR SATURDAY AND DECREASING POPS SATURDAY NIGHT. DESPITE THE CLOUD              
COVER AND RAIN SHOWERS SATURDAY HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO BE ABOVE                  
NORMAL BUT COOLER THAN PREVIOUS DAYS. THE REINFORCING SHOT OF                   
COLDER AIR NOT EXPECTED UNTIL SUNDAY.                                           
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...                                  
A DEEP UPPER LOW IS FORECAST TO SLOWLY LIFT OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES              
REGION SUNDAY AND STALL OVER CENTRAL QUEBEC ON MONDAY. IT WILL BRING            
UNSETTLED WEATHER TO THE REGION FOR SUNDAY AND MUCH OF THE DAY                  
MONDAY...ESPECIALLY NORTH OF ALBANY...BEFORE A WEAK HIGH OVER THE               
NORTHERN PLAINS WEDGES IN MONDAY NIGHT FOR A BRIEF BREAK IN THE                 
WEATHER LATE MONDAY NIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY. COOLER AIR WILL FLOW               
INTO THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT WITH 850 HPA TEMPERATURES STEADILY                 
DROPPING SUNDAY NIGHT TO MINUS 3 TO MINUS 7 DEGREES OVER THE                    
REGION...ALONG WITH LOW LEVEL WINDS DOWN THE LENGTH OF LAKE ONTARIO             
BRINGING ADDED MOISTURE TO THE ADIRONDACKS AND THE MOHAWK                       
VALLEY...AND WITH 850 TEMPS MINUS 5 TO MINUS 7 IN THESE AREAS SUNDAY            
NIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WILL MIX AND/OR CHANGE TO SNOW                               
SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. THE ONLY DECENT DAY IN            
THE WHOLE EXTENDED PERIOD APPEARS TO BE TUESDAY...AND HIGH CLOUDS               
ASSOCIATED WITH THE NEXT SYSTEM TO AFFECT THE REGION WILL PROBABLY              
SPREAD OVER MOST OF THE REGION SHORTLY AFTER DAYBREAK TUESDAY. AT               
THIS POINT IT LOOKS LIKE THE DAY SHOULD BE CLOUDY...BUT DRY...UNTIL             
EARLY EVENING WHEN OVERRUNNING PRECIPITATION AHEAD OF THE LOW IN THE            
OHIO VALLEY SPREADS INTO THE REGION. WE MAY POSSIBLY HAVE SOME                  
P-TYPE ISSUES TO CONTEND WITH EARLY WEDNESDAY...WITH 850 HPA TEMPS              
RISING TO ABOVE ZERO INTO THE CENTRAL ADIRONDACKS AROUND DAYBREAK               
WEDNESDAY WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOW 20S. AT THIS STAGE IN THE              
GAME WILL SLEW THE MIN TEMPS TO EARLIER IN THE NIGHT WHICH MAY WELL             
END UP BEING THE CASE WITH  TEMPS WARMING UP DURING THE NIGHT AND               
CHANGING SNOW INTO RAIN. IT/S NOT A PLEASANT SCENARIO BY ANY                    
MEANS...WITH HIGHS WEDNESDAY ONLY IN THE LOW 40S...SO IT WILL BE A              
BITING COLD RAIN...AND SHOULD THE RIGHT CONDITIONS MATERIALIZE                  
TUESDAY NIGHT WE COULD END UP WITH SOME PATCHES OF FREEZING RAIN IN             
COLDER VALLEYS. FEEL ITS BEST AT THIS POINT TO ADDRESS THE SITUATION            
OVER THE WEEK END OR EARLY NEXT WEEK AND THINGS WILL LIKELY BE                  
DIFFERENT BY THEN. THE TYPICAL ALBANY WEATHER IN NOVEMBER IS NOT                
EXACTLY CHAMBER OF COMMERCE QUALITY WITH AN AVERAGE HIGH OF 47...LOW            
OF 39 AND A MISERLY 37 PERCENT PERCENT OF THE RELATIVELY FEW HOURS              
OF SUNSHINE THAT ARE EVEN POSSIBLE.                                             
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION /16Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...                                      
FLIGHT CONDITIONS TODAY WILL VARY BETWEEN VFR IN THE WEST AND                   
FAR NORTH AND MVFR/IFR IN THE SOUTHEAST...RESULTING FROM A FLOW                 
OF VERY MOIST AIR INTO THE REGION OFF THE STILL FAIRLY WARM WATERS              
OF THE ATLANTIC. WE HAVE TAKEN THE RAIN AND MOST OF THE DRIZZLE                 
OUT OF THE TAFS UNTIL TONIGHT...AS THE ONE AREA OF RAIN OVER THE                
REGION DISINTEGRATED DURING THE NIGHT AND THE OTHER AREA REMAINS                
WELL TO THE EAST...WITH A THIRD BAND OF SCATTERED SHOWERS SOUTH                 
OF LONG ISLAND. A FAIRLY SOLID DECK OF LOW CLOUDS MAY BE EXPECTED               
TODAY...1500 TO 2500 FT ASL SOUTH TO BETWEEN 3000 AND 5000 IN THE               
AREAS OF KGFL AND KALB. WIDESPREAD IFR CIGS MAY BE EXPECTED OVER                
THE BERKSHIRES AND GREEN MTNS OF SOUTHERN VT...AS WELL AS THE                   
HIGHER CATSKILLS. WINDS TODAY WILL BE 5 TO 8 KNOTS FROM THE NORTH               
OR NORTHEAST. FLIGHT CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DETERIORATE THIS                
EVENING WITH LOW STRATUS AND FOG/MIST WHICH WILL RESULT IN WIDE                 
SPREAD IFR CIGS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND AT BEST MVFR CIGS                   
AND VISBYS AT THE HUDSON VALLEY TAF SITES.                                      
OUTLOOK...                                                                      
THU-SAT...MVFR/VFR. CHC OF SHRAS.                                               
&&                                                                              
.HYDROLOGY...                                                                   
REFER TO THE  LATEST FLOOD ADVISORY...ABOUT A BEAVER DAM IN A                   
CULVERT HAS BACKED UP A SUBSTANTIAL AMOUNT OF WATER BEHIND A                    
RAILROAD TRACK IN NORTH GREENFIELD IN SARATOGA COUNTY WHICH POSES A             
FLOOD THREAT SHOULD THE TRACKBED SUDDENLY WASH OUT. CREWS HAVE                  
CLEARED SOME OF THE DEBRIS WHICH IS ALLOWING MORE WATER TO FLOW                 
THROUGH AND GRADUALLY LOWER THE IMPOUNDMENT. THE PROCESS IS LIKELY              
TO TAKE SEVERAL DAYS. OTHERWISE THE PERIOD SHOULD BE RELATIVELY                 
QUIET AS FAR AS THE RIVERS ARE CONCERNED. THE BRUNT OF THE PRECIP               
FROM THE STORM MOVING UP THE COAST WILL BE WELL SOUTH AND EAST OF               
THE FORECAST AREA...WITH ONLY LIGHT AMOUNTS OF PRECIP THROUGH                   
FRIDAY. THE PASSING COLD FRONT SATURDAY AND THE UPPER LOW SUNDAY                
WILL BRING FAIRLY LIGHT AMOUNTS OF PRECIP TO THE REGION...MOST                  
LIKELY AROUND HALF AN INCH. THE STORM MOVING OUT OF THE MISSISSIPPI             
VALLEY STARTING MIDWEEK HAS A POTENTIAL TO BRING MORE OF A SOAKING              
RAIN...OVER A PERIOD OF SEVERAL DAYS. THAT SYSTEM IS FIVE TO SIX                
DAYS OUT...HOWEVER...AND A LOT IS LIKELY TO CHANGE BY THEN.                     
MELTING SNOW IN THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS HAS INCREASED THE FLOW                  
OF THE MOOSE RIVER FLOWING OUT OF THE FULTON CHAIN AND ALSO                     
THE FLOW OF THE WEST CANADA FLOWING INTO HINCKLEY RESERVOIR.                    
RAIN AND MELTING SNOW IN LATE OCTOBER AND EARLIER THIS MONTH                    
HAS BROUGHT THE LEVEL OF THE SCHOHARIE RESERVOIR UP A LITTLE                    
MORE THAN 25 FEET. THERE WAS ABOUT A FOOT AND A HALF OF WATER                   
FLOWING OVER THE NOTCH. THE WATER LEVEL WILL GRADUALLY DROP                     
OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE SCHOHARIE CREEK DOWNSTREAM WAS                      
ONLY SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL AND LESS THAN A THIRD BANKFULL.                      
FOR DETAILS ON THE RIVERS...PLEASE VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC                
PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.                                
&&                                                                              
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
CT...NONE.                                                                      
NY...NONE.                                                                      
MA...NONE.                                                                      
VT...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SYNOPSIS...IAA                                                                  
NEAR TERM...KL/IAA                                                              
SHORT TERM...IAA                                                                
LONG TERM...RCK                                                                 
AVIATION...RCK                                                                  
HYDROLOGY...RCK                                                                 
</pre> ct                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA                                       
1028 AM EST THU NOV 6 2008                                                      
.UPDATE...                                                                      
QUICK UPDATE TO LOWER TEMPS AND INCREASE CLOUD COVER IN THE WEST                
PER SATELLITE/METAR TRENDS. TWEAKED POP GRIDS TO INCLUDE JUST A                 
SLIGHT CHC IN THE WEST SLIGHTLY EARLIER PER RADAR TRENDS OF                     
PIVOTING BAND AND REPORT OF -RA AT KPNT. MAIN "SHOW" WILL BE ALONG              
FRONT LATER TONIGHT...BUT STILL EXPECTING ONLY SHOWERS WITH MAYBE               
A RUMBLE OF THUNDER AS INSTABILITY AND FORCING WANES AT TIME OF FROPA           
TONIGHT AS SFC LOW RETROGRADES...FILLS...AND CONTINUES THE                      
OCCLUSION PROCESS.                                                              
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 650 AM EST THU NOV 6 2008/                          
AVIATION...                                                                     
LITTLE CHNGS REQRD WITH 12 UTC TAF PACKAGE. EASTERN FRINGE OF LOW               
LVL JET INVOF KSBN AT 1500FT AGL REMAINS TO CONTINUE UNTIL MID/LATE             
AM UNTIL SUFFICIENT HEATING WL ALLOW FOR INVERSION TO MIXOUT WITH               
WIND PROFILE BECMG MORE HOMOGENEOUS. 40KT LLJ PER RUC AT 925MB INTO             
KSBN WITH 50KT CORE INTO NRN IL...WHILE SIG LESS /AOB 20-25KTS/                 
INVOF KFWA WHERE WS PRESENCE SHOULD REMAIN LESS PROBLEMATIC...AS JET            
CORE PUNCHES NWD INTO LAKE MICHIGAN. NEXT FOCUS ON APPROACHING COLD             
FRONT WITH CONVECTIVE SHRA AHEAD BYD 07/01UTC WHERE LIMITED SFC                 
BASED INSTABILITY CONTS TO PRECLUDE NEED FOR TSRA MENTION ATTM.                 
SHORT TERM...                                                                   
FOCUS PRIMARILY ON CONVECTION THIS EVENING. FAVOR NAM OVERALL WRT               
DEEP STACKED CYCLONE ACRS ERN SD AS GFS ARND F24-30 BEGINS TO                   
WEAKEN/LIFT NWD TOO FAST GIVEN LACK OF SIG UPSTRM KICKER AS WRN                 
STATES RIDGE QUICKLY REBUILDS AND SYSTEM TO REMAIN LRGLY STEADY                 
STATE S OF SRN CANADIAN COL INTO WEEKEND. AS NAM DEPICTD 24 HRS                 
AGO SPLIT/MLTPL LLJ FEATURE SPRTG CONVCTN EARLIER THIS AM IN                    
MSP/EAU REGIION SUBSQNTLY DRIVEN NWD TO TWRD FAR WRN LK SUP/MN                  
ARWHEAD BECMG MORE HIGHLY ELEVATED. FRTHR S 50-55KT 8H JETLET INTO              
SERN MO AND IN NERN TX DRIVING MORE SUBSTANTIAL NR SFC-BASED CONV               
NERN TX NWD INTO ERN IA. NERN JET SEGMENT PROGGED INTO MO BOOTHILL              
B Y 15 UTC TO CNTL IL BY 18 UTC. BACKED LLVL FLOW IN ADVANCE OF                 
COLD FNT IN STRONG KINEMATIC FIELD PROVIDING STRONG 10-8H DEEP                  
LYR CONVERGENCE AND YEILDING 0-3KM BLS OF 35-45KTS...SHOULD REMAIN              
SUFFICIENT TO MAINTAIN FINE LINE CONVECTION IMMEDIATELY AHEAD OF                
FNT WITH SFC DPS POOLED INTO THE MID 50S IN NARROW SWATH.                       
FURTHERMORE CONCERN WITH HIGH AMPLITUDE/LONGITUDINAL ANVIL                      
STEERING FLOW WL SERVE TO MAINTAIN RELATIVELY CLR SKIES/STRONG                  
INSOLATION FOR MUCH OF DAY...ALLOWING FOR GRTR MUCAPE                           
INSTABILITY...POTNLY HIR THAN THE 300-400 J/KG THAN MODEL OUTPUT                
SUGGESTS ACRS ERN IL BY MIDDAY. SLIGHT BUMP TO MAX TEMPS TODAY                  
WITH LVL THERMAL PLUME IN PLACE. SHRA/TSRA TIMING REMAINS A BIT OF              
CONCERN WITH NAM SIGNALS INTO FAR WRN CWA AT 00 UTC HAVE CHOPPED                
AWAY AT ERN TWO-THIRDS POPS/STRENGTHENED POP GRADIENT ACRS FAR WRN              
CWA IN LATE AFTN. CONVECTIVE SUPRT QUICKLY WANES BY LATE EVENING                
AS STABILITY INCRSES/JET PUSHES NWD INTO SRN MI. RELEGATED ISOLD                
TSRA MENTION TO ALL BUT ERN CWA THIS EVENING WITH STRONG DYNAMICS               
PULLING LIONS SHARE OVER LACK OF THERMODYNAMINCS. NAM SLIGHT                    
SLOWING RUN TO RUN WITH SFC BASED FEATURES ALSO SUPRTS MAJORITY OF              
POP/WX IN EARLY TONIGHT TIMEFRAME. FURTHERMORE PUSHED TIMING BACK               
OF WRAPAROUND SHRA IN COLD POOL/INCREASED HGHT FALLS LT FRIDAY AFN              
INTO FRI NIGHT...IN WAKE OF SCNDRY FNTL PASSAGE. COLUMN COOLING                 
ENOUGH TO SUPORT WET MIX BY MIDNIGHT ALL BUT SRN CWA AND BYND 09                
UTC SAT ENTIRE CWA WITH FZLVL LWRG TO 1500 FT. MUCH OF FRI NOW DRY              
WITH SLOWED TIMING OF SECONDARY SHRTWV/FROPA.                                   
LONG TERM...                                                                    
SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY....THE MAIN CHALLENGE OF THIS PERIOD                 
INCLUDES THE CHANCE AND THE TYPE OF PRECIPITATION SATURDAY THROUGH              
SUNDAY ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW MOVING INTO THE REGION. THE GFS            
AND NAM/WRF HAVE TRENDED TEMPERATURES COLDER SATURDAY...WITH 850 MB             
TEMPERATURES BETWEEN -5C AND -7C. SOME CONCERN IF ICE WILL BE                   
INTRODUCED INTO THE CLOUD TOP FOR SNOW...SO HAVE INCLUDED A RAIN                
SNOW MIX. SLEET IS ALSO POSSIBLE GIVEN THE DEPTH OF THE COLD                    
AIR...BUT FOR NOW WILL LEAVE OUT DUE TO UNCERTAINTY AND EXPECTED                
LIMITED COVERAGE AND DURATION OF THE SLEET.  THE 00Z MEX HAS LOWERED            
THE HIGH SATURDAY HIGH FROM 49F TO 45F AT SBN IN 24 HRS...BUT STILL             
APPEARS TO BE TOO HIGH GIVEN CLOUDS...PRECIPITATION AND COLD                    
TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW LEVELS. KEPT THE HIGHEST PRECIPITATION                  
CHANCES OVER FAR LOWER MICHIGAN WHERE MOISTURE SHOULD BE DEEPER AND             
LIFT BETTER. AN UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA SATURDAY               
NIGHT...SO HAVE KEPT PRECIPITATION CHANCES INTACT. THERE MAY BE SOME            
LAKE ENHANCEMENT TO PRECIPITATION OVER FAR SW LOWER MICH...BUT GIVEN            
250 TO 280 DEGREE PREVAILING LOW LEVEL WINDS...A PREDOMINANT LAKE               
EFFECT EVENT IS NOT EXPECTED. OTHERWISE...COLD CONDITIONS WILL                  
PERSIST THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE 00Z GFS WAS HINTING AT THE POTENTIAL             
FOR PRECIPITATION WITH ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM EJECTING NORTHEAST            
INTO THE AREA ABOUT TUESDAY. HOWEVER...FOR THIS PACKAGE...HAVE KEPT             
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY DRY DUE TO GFS RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY                  
ISSUES AND SIGNIFICANT ENSEMBLE SPREADS.                                        
&&                                                                              
.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
IN...NONE.                                                                      
MI...NONE.                                                                      
OH...NONE.                                                                      
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST FRIDAY FOR LMZ043-046.                 
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHORT TERM...MURPHY                                                             
LONG TERM...SKIPPER                                                             
AVIATION...MURPHY                                                               
UPDATE...SIMPSON                                                                
</pre> in                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA                                       
650 AM EST THU NOV 6 2008                                                       
.AVIATION...                                                                    
LITTLE CHNGS REQRD WITH 12 UTC TAF PACKAGE. EASTERN FRINGE OF LOW               
LVL JET INVOF KSBN AT 1500FT AGL REMAINS TO CONTINUE UNTIL MID/LATE             
AM UNTIL SUFFICIENT HEATING WL ALLOW FOR INVERSION TO MIXOUT WITH               
WIND PROFILE BECMG MORE HOMOGENEOUS. 40KT LLJ PER RUC AT 925MB INTO             
KSBN WITH 50KT CORE INTO NRN IL...WHILE SIG LESS /AOB 20-25KTS/                 
INVOF KFWA WHERE WS PRESENCE SHOULD REMAIN LESS PROBLEMATIC...AS JET            
CORE PUNCHES NWD INTO LAKE MICHIGAN. NEXT FOCUS ON APPROACHING COLD             
FRONT WITH CONVECTIVE SHRA AHEAD BYD 07/01UTC WHERE LIMITED SFC                 
BASED INSTABILITY CONTS TO PRECLUDE NEED FOR TSRA MENTION ATTM.                 
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM...                                                                  
FOCUS PRIMARILY ON CONVECTION THIS EVENING. FAVOR NAM OVERALL WRT               
DEEP STACKED CYCLONE ACRS ERN SD AS GFS ARND F24-30 BEGINS TO                   
WEAKEN/LIFT NWD TOO FAST GIVEN LACK OF SIG UPSTRM KICKER AS WRN                 
STATES RIDGE QUICKLY REBUILDS AND SYSTEM TO REMAIN LRGLY STEADY                 
STATE S OF SRN CANADIAN COL INTO WEEKEND. AS NAM DEPICTD 24 HRS                 
AGO SPLIT/MLTPL LLJ FEATURE SPRTG CONVCTN EARLIER THIS AM IN                    
MSP/EAU REGIION SUBSQNTLY DRIVEN NWD TO TWRD FAR WRN LK SUP/MN                  
ARWHEAD BECMG MORE HIGHLY ELEVATED. FRTHR S 50-55KT 8H JETLET INTO              
SERN MO AND IN NERN TX DRIVING MORE SUBSTANTIAL NR SFC-BASED CONV               
NERN TX NWD INTO ERN IA. NERN JET SEGMENT PROGGED INTO MO BOOTHILL              
B Y 15 UTC TO CNTL IL BY 18 UTC. BACKED LLVL FLOW IN ADVANCE OF                 
COLD FNT IN STRONG KINEMATIC FIELD PROVIDING STRONG 10-8H DEEP                  
LYR CONVERGENCE AND YEILDING 0-3KM BLS OF 35-45KTS...SHOULD REMAIN              
SUFFICIENT TO MAINTAIN FINE LINE CONVECTION IMMEDIATELY AHEAD OF                
FNT WITH SFC DPS POOLED INTO THE MID 50S IN NARROW SWATH.                       
FURTHERMORE CONCERN WITH HIGH AMPLITUDE/LONGITUDINAL ANVIL                      
STEERING FLOW WL SERVE TO MAINTAIN RELATIVELY CLR SKIES/STRONG                  
INSOLATION FOR MUCH OF DAY...ALLOWING FOR GRTR MUCAPE                           
INSTABILITY...POTNLY HIR THAN THE 300-400 J/KG THAN MODEL OUTPUT                
SUGGESTS ACRS ERN IL BY MIDDAY. SLIGHT BUMP TO MAX TEMPS TODAY                  
WITH LVL THERMAL PLUME IN PLACE. SHRA/TSRA TIMING REMAINS A BIT OF              
CONCERN WITH NAM SIGNALS INTO FAR WRN CWA AT 00 UTC HAVE CHOPPED                
AWAY AT ERN TWO-THIRDS POPS/STRENGTHENED POP GRADIENT ACRS FAR WRN              
CWA IN LATE AFTN. CONVECTIVE SUPRT QUICKLY WANES BY LATE EVENING                
AS STABILITY INCRSES/JET PUSHES NWD INTO SRN MI. RELEGATED ISOLD                
TSRA MENTION TO ALL BUT ERN CWA THIS EVENING WITH STRONG DYNAMICS               
PULLING LIONS SHARE OVER LACK OF THERMODYNAMINCS. NAM SLIGHT                    
SLOWING RUN TO RUN WITH SFC BASED FEATURES ALSO SUPRTS MAJORITY OF              
POP/WX IN EARLY TONIGHT TIMEFRAME. FURTHERMORE PUSHED TIMING BACK               
OF WRAPAROUND SHRA IN COLD POOL/INCREASED HGHT FALLS LT FRIDAY AFN              
INTO FRI NIGHT...IN WAKE OF SCNDRY FNTL PASSAGE. COLUMN COOLING                 
ENOUGH TO SUPORT WET MIX BY MIDNIGHT ALL BUT SRN CWA AND BYND 09                
UTC SAT ENTIRE CWA WITH FZLVL LWRG TO 1500 FT. MUCH OF FRI NOW DRY              
WITH SLOWED TIMING OF SECONDARY SHRTWV/FROPA.                                   
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM...                                                                   
SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY....THE MAIN CHALLENGE OF THIS PERIOD                 
INCLUDES THE CHANCE AND THE TYPE OF PRECIPITATION SATURDAY THROUGH              
SUNDAY ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW MOVING INTO THE REGION. THE GFS            
AND NAM/WRF HAVE TRENDED TEMPERATURES COLDER SATURDAY...WITH 850 MB             
TEMPERATURES BETWEEN -5C AND -7C. SOME CONCERN IF ICE WILL BE                   
INTRODUCED INTO THE CLOUD TOP FOR SNOW...SO HAVE INCLUDED A RAIN                
SNOW MIX. SLEET IS ALSO POSSIBLE GIVEN THE DEPTH OF THE COLD                    
AIR...BUT FOR NOW WILL LEAVE OUT DUE TO UNCERTAINTY AND EXPECTED                
LIMITED COVERAGE AND DURATION OF THE SLEET.  THE 00Z MEX HAS LOWERED            
THE HIGH SATURDAY HIGH FROM 49F TO 45F AT SBN IN 24 HRS...BUT STILL             
APPEARS TO BE TOO HIGH GIVEN CLOUDS...PRECIPITATION AND COLD                    
TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW LEVELS. KEPT THE HIGHEST PRECIPITATION                  
CHANCES OVER FAR LOWER MICHIGAN WHERE MOISTURE SHOULD BE DEEPER AND             
LIFT BETTER. AN UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA SATURDAY               
NIGHT...SO HAVE KEPT PRECIPITATION CHANCES INTACT. THERE MAY BE SOME            
LAKE ENHANCEMENT TO PRECIPITATION OVER FAR SW LOWER MICH...BUT GIVEN            
250 TO 280 DEGREE PREVAILING LOW LEVEL WINDS...A PREDOMINANT LAKE               
EFFECT EVENT IS NOT EXPECTED. OTHERWISE...COLD CONDITIONS WILL                  
PERSIST THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE 00Z GFS WAS HINTING AT THE POTENTIAL             
FOR PRECIPITATION WITH ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM EJECTING NORTHEAST            
INTO THE AREA ABOUT TUESDAY. HOWEVER...FOR THIS PACKAGE...HAVE KEPT             
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY DRY DUE TO GFS RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY                  
ISSUES AND SIGNIFICANT ENSEMBLE SPREADS.                                        
&&                                                                              
.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
IN...NONE.                                                                      
MI...NONE.                                                                      
OH...NONE.                                                                      
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST FRIDAY FOR LMZ043-046.                 
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHORT TERM...MURPHY                                                             
LONG TERM...SKIPPER                                                             
AVIATION...MURPHY                                                               
</pre> in                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA                                       
543 AM EST THU NOV 6 2008                                                       
.SHORT TERM...                                                                  
FOCUS PRIMARILY ON CONVECTION THIS EVENING. FAVOR NAM OVERALL WRT               
DEEP STACKED CYCLONE ACRS ERN SD AS GFS ARND F24-30 BEGINS TO                   
WEAKEN/LIFT NWD TOO FAST GIVEN LACK OF SIG UPSTRM KICKER AS WRN                 
STATES RIDGE QUICKLY REBUILDS AND SYSTEM TO REMAIN LRGLY STEADY                 
STATE S OF SRN CANADIAN COL INTO WEEKEND. AS NAM DEPICTD 24 HRS                 
AGO SPLIT/MLTPL LLJ FEATURE SPRTG CONVCTN EARLIER THIS AM IN                    
MSP/EAU REGIION SUBSQNTLY DRIVEN NWD TO TWRD FAR WRN LK SUP/MN                  
ARWHEAD BECMG MORE HIGHLY ELEVATED. FRTHR S 50-55KT 8H JETLET INTO              
SERN MO AND IN NERN TX DRIVING MORE SUBSTANTIAL NR SFC-BASED CONV               
NERN TX NWD INTO ERN IA. NERN JET SEGMENT PROGGED INTO MO BOOTHILL              
B Y 15 UTC TO CNTL IL BY 18 UTC. BACKED LLVL FLOW IN ADVANCE OF                 
COLD FNT IN STRONG KINEMATIC FIELD PROVIDING STRONG 10-8H DEEP                  
LYR CONVERGENCE AND YEILDING 0-3KM BLS OF 35-45KTS...SHOULD REMAIN              
SUFFICIENT TO MAINTAIN FINE LINE CONVECTION IMMEDIATELY AHEAD OF                
FNT WITH SFC DPS POOLED INTO THE MID 50S IN NARROW SWATH.                       
FURTHERMORE CONCERN WITH HIGH AMPLITUDE/LONGITUDINAL ANVIL                      
STEERING FLOW WL SERVE TO MAINTAIN RELATIVELY CLR SKIES/STRONG                  
INSOLATION FOR MUCH OF DAY...ALLOWING FOR GRTR MUCAPE                           
INSTABILITY...POTNLY HIR THAN THE 300-400 J/KG THAN MODEL OUTPUT                
SUGGESTS ACRS ERN IL BY MIDDAY. SLIGHT BUMP TO MAX TEMPS TODAY                  
WITH LVL THERMAL PLUME IN PLACE. SHRA/TSRA TIMING REMAINS A BIT OF              
CONCERN WITH NAM SIGNALS INTO FAR WRN CWA AT 00 UTC HAVE CHOPPED                
AWAY AT ERN TWO-THIRDS POPS/STRENGTHENED POP GRADIENT ACRS FAR WRN              
CWA IN LATE AFTN. CONVECTIVE SUPRT QUICKLY WANES BY LATE EVENING                
AS STABILITY INCRSES/JET PUSHES NWD INTO SRN MI. RELEGATED ISOLD                
TSRA MENTION TO ALL BUT ERN CWA THIS EVENING WITH STRONG DYNAMICS               
PULLING LIONS SHARE OVER LACK OF THERMODYNAMINCS. NAM SLIGHT                    
SLOWING RUN TO RUN WITH SFC BASED FEATURES ALSO SUPRTS MAJORITY OF              
POP/WX IN EARLY TONIGHT TIMEFRAME. FURTHERMORE PUSHED TIMING BACK               
OF WRAPAROUND SHRA IN COLD POOL/INCREASED HGHT FALLS LT FRIDAY AFN              
INTO FRI NIGHT...IN WAKE OF SCNDRY FNTL PASSAGE. COLUMN COOLING                 
ENOUGH TO SUPORT WET MIX BY MIDNIGHT ALL BUT SRN CWA AND BYND 09                
UTC SAT ENTIRE CWA WITH FZLVL LWRG TO 1500 FT. MUCH OF FRI NOW DRY              
WITH SLOWED TIMING OF SECONDARY SHRTWV/FROPA.                                   
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM...                                                                   
SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY....THE MAIN CHALLENGE OF THIS PERIOD                 
INCLUDES THE CHANCE AND THE TYPE OF PRECIPITATION SATURDAY THROUGH              
SUNDAY ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW MOVING INTO THE REGION. THE GFS            
AND NAM/WRF HAVE TRENDED TEMPERATURES COLDER SATURDAY...WITH 850 MB             
TEMPERATURES BETWEEN -5C AND -7C. SOME CONCERN IF ICE WILL BE                   
INTRODUCED INTO THE CLOUD TOP FOR SNOW...SO HAVE INCLUDED A RAIN                
SNOW MIX. SLEET IS ALSO POSSIBLE GIVEN THE DEPTH OF THE COLD                    
AIR...BUT FOR NOW WILL LEAVE OUT DUE TO UNCERTAINTY AND EXPECTED                
LIMITED COVERAGE AND DURATION OF THE SLEET.  THE 00Z MEX HAS LOWERED            
THE HIGH SATURDAY HIGH FROM 49F TO 45F AT SBN IN 24 HRS...BUT STILL             
APPEARS TO BE TOO HIGH GIVEN CLOUDS...PRECIPITATION AND COLD                    
TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW LEVELS. KEPT THE HIGHEST PRECIPITATION                  
CHANCES OVER FAR LOWER MICHIGAN WHERE MOISTURE SHOULD BE DEEPER AND             
LIFT BETTER. AN UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA SATURDAY               
NIGHT...SO HAVE KEPT PRECIPITATION CHANCES INTACT. THERE MAY BE SOME            
LAKE ENHANCEMENT TO PRECIPITATION OVER FAR SW LOWER MICH...BUT GIVEN            
250 TO 280 DEGREE PREVAILING LOW LEVEL WINDS...A PREDOMINANT LAKE               
EFFECT EVENT IS NOT EXPECTED. OTHERWISE...COLD CONDITIONS WILL                  
PERSIST THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE 00Z GFS WAS HINTING AT THE POTENTIAL             
FOR PRECIPITATION WITH ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM EJECTING NORTHEAST            
INTO THE AREA ABOUT TUESDAY. HOWEVER...FOR THIS PACKAGE...HAVE KEPT             
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY DRY DUE TO GFS RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY                  
ISSUES AND SIGNIFICANT ENSEMBLE SPREADS.                                        
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
EASTERN FRINGE OF LOW LVL JET INVOF 1500FT AGL TO CONTINUE UNTIL                
MID/LATE AM UNTIL SUFFICIENT HEATING WL ALLOW FOR INVERSION TO                  
MIXOUT WITH WIND PROFILE BECMG MORE HOMOGENEOUS. 35KT LLJ PER RUC AT            
925MB INTO KSBN WHILE SIG LESS/AOB 20-25KTS INVOF KFWA WHERE WS                 
PRESENCE SHOULD REMAIN LESS PROBLEMATIC. NEXT FOCUS ON APPROACHING              
COLD FRONT WITH CONVECTIVE POTNL BYD 07/00UTC WHERE TIMING AND                  
LIMITED SFC BASED INSTABILITY PRECLUDES NEED FOR TSRA MENTION ATTM.             
&&                                                                              
.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
IN...NONE.                                                                      
MI...NONE.                                                                      
OH...NONE.                                                                      
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST FRIDAY FOR LMZ043-046-080.             
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHORT TERM...MURPHY                                                             
LONG TERM...SKIPPER                                                             
AVIATION...MURPHY                                                               
</pre> in                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN                                              
1015 AM CST THU NOV 6 2008                                                      
.UPDATE...LARGE AREA OF RAIN WITH SOME EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS                   
MOVING NORTH THROUGH FORECAST AREA. LITTLE CHANGE TO AFTERNOON                  
FORECAST EXCEPT FOR TWEAKS FOR TEMPS. REST OF FCST UNCHANGED.                   
STEWART                                                                         
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 338 AM CST THU NOV 6 2008/                          
DISCUSSION...SLOW MOVING CUT OFF SYSTEM IN THE DAKOTAS WILL                     
DRIFT E OVER MN/IA TODAY...CENTERING OVER WIS AND THE WRN GREAT                 
LAKES FRIDAY. ADJUSTED POPS DOWN IN ERN WIS ZONES TO CHC WITH SCT               
SHRA ISOLD TSRA WORDING THIS MORNING BASED ON CURRENT RADAR TREND               
AND 06Z MODEL RUNS KEEPING THE WIS ZONES DRY THROUGH 18Z.                       
ELSEWHERE THIS MORNING...AND ALL ZONES THIS AFTERNOON...CONTINUED               
DEF POPS AND ISOLD TSTMS. NO SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED ATTM. AT                
09Z THE SFC LOW PRESSURE WAS 992 MB...DEEPER THAN THE                           
GFS/NAM/SHEF/RUC WERE SUGGESTING FOR THIS HR. INCREASED WIND                    
SPEEDS TODAY. IF THE CURRENT PRESSURE CAN BE MAINTAINED AS LOW                  
APPROACHES WIND SPEEDS WILL NEED TO BE INCREASED EVEN FURTHER.                  
WITH 3 FT WAVES ALREADY BEING REPORTED AT THE DULUTH ENTRY AT 3                 
AM...ISSUED A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY. REFER TO NSH/WSW FOR                        
ADDITIONAL MARINE DETAILS.                                                      
FCST CHALLENGES CONCERNING TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF DRY SLOT                     
WRAPPING INTO THE SYSTEM OVER THE SRN AND ERN ZONES                             
TONIGHT/FRIDAY. MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO POP/QPF GRIDS DURING THIS                  
TIME...MAINLY TO DECREASE POPS IN FAR EAST. UNCERTAINTY REMAINS IN              
TIMING AND STRENGTH OF CAA WITH PHASE TRANSITION FRIDAY/SAT. BUFR               
SOUNDINGS SHOW RA/SN TRANSITION IN THE WRN FA...INL TO BRD...TAKES              
PLACE LATE FRI AFTRN/EARLY EVENING. ELSEWHERE...PROFILE SUPPORTS                
ALL RA FRIDAY. CHANGE OVER TO SN FROM WEST TO EAST EXPECTED                     
THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SAT. ATTM...ALL SN EXPECTED SAT NIGHT/SUN.            
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN LIGHT...A DUSTING UP TO               
AN INCH OR TWO TOTAL. THE GREATEST ACCUMULATIONS...A FEW                        
INCHES...EXPECTED ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE OF LAKE SUPERIOR SATURDAY               
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.                                                              
AVIATION...MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE WIDESPREAD THROUGH AT                 
LEAST 18Z TODAY AS DEEP MOISTURE FLOWS NORTH AHEAD OF A DEEPENING               
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. RAIN SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS...AND              
AREAS OF FOG...WILL BECOME MORE NUMEROUS EARLY THIS MORNING WHILE               
GRADUALLY SPREADING NORTH AND WEST...WITH THE POOREST CEILINGS AND              
VISIBILITIES LIKELY TO OCCUR FROM 12Z-16Z. AS A COLD FRONT DRAWS                
CLOSER TO THE REGION BY THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY                            
EVENING...CEILINGS MAY LIFT SOMEWHAT AS DRIER AIR IS TEMPORARILY                
ADVECTED INTO THE REGION. TOWARD THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD...BY 06Z             
FRIDAY...CEILINGS WILL LOWER ONCE AGAIN...WITH A CONTINUED CHANCE               
FOR SHOWERS AS LOW PRESSURE SLUGGISHLY PUSHES EAST OF THE AREA.                 
&&                                                                              
POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                             
DLH  56  41  45  29 /  90  70  70  50                                           
INL  53  36  40  28 /  90  80  70  40                                           
BRD  54  39  43  30 /  90  70  70  40                                           
HYR  59  43  47  33 /  90  40  70  60                                           
ASX  58  43  47  34 /  90  70  70  60                                           
&&                                                                              
.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
MN...NONE.                                                                      
WI...NONE.                                                                      
LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR LSZ121-              
     LSZ144-LSZ145-LSZ146-LSZ147-LSZ148.                                        
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST FRIDAY FOR LSZ140-LSZ141-              
     LSZ142-LSZ143.                                                             
$$                                                                              
STEWART/DAP                                                                     
</pre> mn                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS                                             
1022 AM CST THU NOV 6 2008                                                      
.UPDATE...A FEW SHOWERS WERE POPPING UP IN NORTHEAST LOUISIANA AND              
WESTERN MISSISSIPPI AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT. ADJUSTED               
POPS TO INCLUDE THE SOUTHWEST ZONES THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE THE                 
FORECAST WAS GOOD. AIR REMAINS PRETTY STABLE OVER THE CWA AT THIS               
TIME. HOWEVER...THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ALONG THE TAIL END            
OF THE LINE AND THE RUC SHOWS INSTABILITY ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF THE           
BOUNDARY. WILL MAINTAIN ISOLATED SEVERE/STRONG WORDING THE HWO FOR              
THE WESTERN ZONES.                                                              
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH              
CLOUD LAYERS GENERALLY ABOVE 4K FEET. INITIAL SHOWER DEVELOPMENT                
LATE THIS MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON OVER NORTHEAST LOUISIANA             
AND SOUTHWEST MISSISSIPPI WILL MISS THE TAF SITES. LINE OF                      
SHOWERS/TSTMS CONTAINING MVFR/IFR CIGS/VSBYS WILL AFFECT GLH AFTER              
23Z...GWO AFTER 02Z...JAN AFTER 04Z...AND MEI AND PIB AFTER 06Z. VFR            
CONDITIONS WILL RETURN TO GLH/GWO/JAN FOR FRIDAY MORNING AS THE                 
FRONT MOVES EWD WITH IFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT MEI AND PIB.            
/EC/                                                                            
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
JACKSON       80  59  67  44 /  35  88  61  12                                  
MERIDIAN      80  57  68  40 /  13  68  73  23                                  
VICKSBURG     80  57  68  44 /  55  89  37   9                                  
HATTIESBURG   80  61  70  46 /  11  40  71  27                                  
NATCHEZ       80  59  69  46 /  51  89  58  10                                  
GREENVILLE    76  52  70  43 /  78  80  11   8                                  
GREENWOOD     76  55  68  43 /  66  89  29   9                                  
&&                                                                              
.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
MS...NONE.                                                                      
LA...NONE.                                                                      
AR...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
7/EC                                                                            
</pre> ms                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS                                            
305 PM MST THU NOV 6 2008                                                       
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
234 PM MST THU NOV 6 2008                                                       
17Z WATER VAPOR IMAGERY/RUC ANALYSIS INDICATE A DEEP CLOSED H5 LOW              
ACROSS NORTHEAST NEBRASKA. AT THE SFC...THERE APPEARS TO BE TWO LOW             
CENTERS...A 997 MB CENTER NEAR KOFK AND A 994 MB LOW NEAR KMSP.                 
IMMEDIATE SHORT TERM CONCERNS WILL CONTINUE TO BE STRONG WINDS ON               
BACKSIDE OF THE SFC LOW. FOLLOWED BY POTENTIAL WINTER WX SUNDAY AND             
MONDAY.                                                                         
TONIGHT...DIV Q FIELDS INDICATE FORCING FOR SUBSIDENCE WILL BE IN               
PLACE INITIALLY ACROSS THE AREA AS H5 LOW SLOWLY MOVES TO THE EAST              
SOUTHEAST. SURPRISINGLY...DIV Q FIELDS AND OMEGA PROFILES INDICATE              
ASCENT OVERSPREADING THE AREA DURING THE EVENING. STATIC STABILITY              
APPEARS TO BE RATHER HIGH...AND DO NOT THINK WEAK FORCING WILL                  
PRODUCE MORE THAN A MIDDLE CLOUD DECK...SO WILL CONTINUE FORECAST OF            
PRECIP ENDING BY THIS AFTERNOON UNLESS OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS SUGGEST             
OTHERWISE. BOTH NAM AND GFS SUGGEST WINDS WILL DECOUPLE QUICKLY THIS            
EVENING AS SFC LOW CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST AND SUBSIDENCE BELOW H7               
HELPS STRENGTHEN THE INVERSION AND LIMIT TURBULENT MIXING. BUFR                 
SOUNDINGS SHOW A RESURGENCE IN THE WINDS AROUND 06Z AT MCK...AS WEAK            
ASCENT OVERSPREADS THE REGION. TIME OF NIGHT WOULD NOT SEEM TO FAVOR            
AN ATMOSPHERE AS DEEPLY MIXED AS THE SOUNDING SUGGEST AND FOR NOW               
WILL LET THE WARNING EXPIRE AS IS AND LET OBSERVATIONS DICTATE IF IT            
NEEDS TO BE EXTENDED.                                                           
TOMORROW-TOMORROW NIGHT...WINDS WILL LIKELY BE A FACTOR AGAIN ON                
FRIDAY...ALTHOUGH THEY WILL BE MUCH LIGHTER THAN TODAY. SUSTAINED               
WINDS AROUND 25KTS LOOK LIKELY ACROSS THE EASTERN CWA THROUGH THE               
DAY...AND MAY SEE WINDS REACH LOW END ADVISORY AROUND 18Z. WITH WIND            
HIGHLIGHTS ALREADY ONGOING...AND MARGINAL NATURE OF THE WINDS                   
TOMORROW...WILL NOT ISSUE AN ADDITIONAL HIGHLIGHT AT THIS TIME. SKIES           
SHOULD BE CLEAR FOR MUCH OF THE MORNING...BUT APPROACHING H3 JET                
STREAK WILL LIKELY PROVIDE ENOUGH LIFT FOR ANOTHER BATCH OF CLOUDS              
AS LARGE T-TD SPREADS AND A FAIRLY STABLE AIR MASS WILL LIMIT ANT               
PRECIPITATION CHANCE WITH THE APPROACHING JET STREAK. VERY DRY AIR              
TO THE WEST MAY ALSO ADVECT INTO THE AREA TOMORROW AS WIND FIELD                
WILL HAVE A WESTERLY COMPONENT IN THE MORNING. RH VALUES MAY NEAR               
CRITICAL FIRE WX VALUES DURING THE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST.              
THIS AREA WILL BE WHERE WINDS ARE THE LIGHTEST...SIMILAR TO TODAY.              
ALTHOUGH HAVE SOME CONCERNS ABOUT RED FLAG CRITERIA                             
TOMORROW...CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH ENOUGH FOR A WATCH ATTM...AND                    
SATURDAY-SUNDAY...SHORT WAVE RIDGING WILL BUILD OVER THE CWA ON                 
SATURDAY. DESPITE SUBSIDENCE WITH RIDGE...BOTH NAM AND GFS INDICATE             
PERSISTENT AREA OF SATURATION ALONG H7 THERMAL RIDGE IN AREA OF WAA.            
STATIC STABILITY ONCE AGAIN APPEARS STRONG SO DO NOT ANTICIPATE MUCH            
OF A PRECIP THREAT THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY. NAM...GFS AND SREF ALL             
AGREE COLD FRONT WILL BACK INTO THE AREA SATURDAY AFTERNOON. MODELS             
STILL AGREE ON FAIRLY STRONG LOW LEVEL FORCING DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT             
AS WAA INCREASES ABOVE THE SHALLOW COLD AIRMASS. SOUNDINGS INDICATE             
ICE WOULD BE HARD TO COME BY AT MOST SITES WITH FORCING PRIMARILY               
FOCUSED SO LOW TO THE GROUND. ONE EXCEPTION TO THIS WILL BE IN THE              
NORTHEAST WHERE AFOREMENTIONED AREA OF SATURATION NEAR THE EDGE OF              
THERMAL RIDGE WHICH MAY BE ABLE TO PROVIDE A FEW ICE CRYSTALS BEFORE            
IT LIFTS NORTH SUNDAY MORNING. ALTHOUGH MODELS STILL SUPPORT THE                
POTENTIAL FOR -FZDZ OVERNIGHT SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY MORNING...MODELS             
STILL SUGGEST THAT BOUNDARY LAYER WILL NOT BE SATURATED WHICH WOULD             
LEAD ME TO THINK MORE STRATUS THAN ANY KIND OF PCP. MUCH DRIER                  
AIRMASS FORECASTED TO BE IN PLACE BEHIND THE FRONT...AND VERY                   
LIMITED MOISTURE RETURN NORTH OF THE FRONT SUPPORTS THIS LINE OF                
THINKING AS WELL. AT THIS POINT...THINK A SCHC STILL WARRANTED BUT              
DO NOT PLAN ON INCREASING CHANCES AT THIS TIME.                                 
IN THE EXTENDED(SUNDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY)...MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ALL                
HAVE THERE SHARE OF DIFFERENCES IN HANDLING OF NEXT SYSTEM ON                   
SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. GFS ENSEMBLES FAVOR THE MORE AMPLIFIED                  
SOLUTION OF THE CANADIAN AND ECMWF AND WILL LEAN IN THIS DIRECTION              
FOR EXTENDED PERIODS ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW. LOW CONFIDENCE            
ASIDE...POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER WET PERIOD ACROSS CWA EXISTS. NUMEROUS            
DIFFERENCES IN MODEL FORECASTS MAKE DIAGNOSING SPECIFIC FORCING                 
DETAILS AND POTENTIAL PRECIPITATION TYPE DIFFICULT..AND FOR THE TIME            
BEING WILL TRY TO KEEP WX TYPE SIMPLE FOR MON-TUES. WITH CWA                    
EXPECTED TO BE ON THE NORTH SIDE OF LOW WITH DEEP EASTERLY FLOW AND             
PRECIP AND CLOUDS HOLDING BACK ANY WARMING DO NOT ANTICIPATE MUCH OF            
A DIURNAL TREND AND WILL COOL MAX TEMPS SEVERAL DEGREES. WITH A                 
LIMITED DIURNAL RANGE...AND GFS ENS DATA INDICATING >60% CHANCE OF              
H85 TEMPS BELOW 0C BY MONDAY AFTERNOON...WILL KEEP PRECIP TYPE AS               
SNOW FOR NOW. ANOTHER TROUGH IS FORECASTED TO IMPACT THE AREA LATTER            
IN THE PERIOD...BUT WITH ALL THE UNCERTAINTY OF THE FIRST HALF OF               
THE PERIOD WILL KEEP POPS OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR NOW.                          
JRM                                                                             
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
304 PM MST THU NOV 6 2008                                                       
FOR 00Z TAFS...CLOUDS AND WIND SHOULD SLOWLY DECREASE FOR THIS TAF              
PERIOD AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES FROM NORTHEAST NEBRASKA TO SOUTH OF               
THE GREAT LAKES. WIND SPEEDS WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE TO 25KT GUSTING            
TO 35KT TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH               
THIS TAF PERIOD WITH CLEARING OCCURRING AFTER 12Z FRIDAY. INCREASING            
MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED AT BOTH SITES FRIDAY                     
AFTERNOON AS A SHORTWAVE MOVES INTO THE AREA IN NORTHWEST FLOW.                 
FS                                                                              
&&                                                                              
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
KS...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 7 PM MST /8 PM CST/ THIS EVENING FOR               
     KSZ001>004-013>016-028-029.                                                
     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM MST /8 PM CST/ THIS EVENING FOR KSZ027-           
     041-042.                                                                   
NE...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 7 PM MST /8 PM CST/ THIS EVENING FOR               
     NEZ079>081.                                                                
CO...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 7 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR COZ090-091.              
     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR COZ092.                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
WFO GOODLAND                                                                    
</pre> ks                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
412 PM EST THU NOV 6 2008                                                       
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW A LARGE UPPER LOW ROTATING OVER                
THE CNTL US. H500 LOW IS VERTICALLY STACKED OVER 997MB LOW OVER SE              
SD AND NE NEB...WHILE A SECOND LOW OF 994MB LOCATED OVER CNTL MN.               
VERY STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT BEHIND THE LOW IS PRODUCING VERY                  
STRONG WINDS ACROSS WRN DAKOTAS PRODUCING BLIZZARD                              
CONDITIONS...WITH NUMEROUS LOCATIONS GUSTING ABOVE 35KTS AND A                  
COUPLE SITES NEAR THE BLACK HILLS GUSTING ABOVE 60KTS. CLOSER TO                
HOME...INITIAL PCPN WAVE STARTING TO MOVE INTO THE UP AS OF 19Z.                
THIS IS AHEAD OF COLD FRONT...AND ANOTHER LINE OF SHOWERS...THAT                
IS MOVING THROUGH SW WI. THERE IS DRY AIR IN PLACE ABOVE H850 ON                
19Z KSAW AND 18Z KPLN TAMDAR SOUNDINGS...WHICH HAS BEEN PRODUCING               
PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ACROSS ERN UP. HIGH CIRRUS HAVE BEEN               
SLIDING NORTH OVER THE REST OF THE UP.                                          
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT AND FRIDAY)...                                             
UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO DIG S ACROSS SRN PLAINS TONIGHT AND               
GRADUALLY MERGE WITH THE SUB TROPICAL JET LATER IN THE DAY ON FRI.              
WITH THE TROUGH DIGGING DEEP OVER THE CNTL US...DUE TO H250 100KT               
JET MOVING SE OVER THE ROCKIES...IT PULLS THE UPPER SUPPORT JUST                
FAR ENOUGH AWAY FROM SFC LOW TO ALLOW IT TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN AND                
DRIFT NE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.                                         
EXPECT THE PCPN TO CONTINUE NORTH DURING THE LATE AFTN HRS. DRY                 
AIR MENTIONED PREVIOUSLY SHOULD QUICKLY BE EATEN AWAY ACROSS THE                
REST OF THE CWA BY ABUNDANT H900 AND ABOVE MOISTURE MOVING IN FROM              
WI...AS SEEN ON WV IMAGERY AND CNTL WI TAMDAR SOUNDINGS. HAVE LEFT              
MENTION OF ISOLATED THUNDER IN FOR THE LATE AFTN...AS STEEP LAPSE               
RATES ABOVE H850 WERE SEEN ON 18Z KCWA TAMDAR SOUNDING...BUT HAVE               
NOT SEEN ANY LIGHTING STRIKES IN NRN WI SO FAR. THIS MOISTURE IS                
SITUATED AHEAD OF SFC COLD/OCCLUDED FRONT THAT WILL PUSH N THROUGH              
CWA...MAINLY THIS EVENING. MOISTURE IS ABUNDANT FOR THIS TIME OF                
YEAR...WITH PWAT VALUES NEAR OR ABOVE AN INCH...WHICH IS 200-300                
PERCENT OF NORMAL. SHOULD BE PLENTY OF FORCING ALONG THE                        
FRONT...WITH 290-305K ISENTROPIC SFCS SHOWING WELL DEFINED                      
BOUNDARY PUSHING NE THROUGH WRN HALF OF CWA BY 06Z AND THEN OVER                
THE FAR ERN CWA BY 12Z FRI...AND DECENT H850-500 Q VECTOR                       
CONVERGENCE. THEREFORE...EXPECT NW TO SE ORIENTATED BAND OF                     
SHOWERS TO TRANSITION FROM SW TO NE ACROSS THE CWA...WITH BEST                  
PCPN CHANCES OVER THE WRN UP DURING THE EVENING AND ERN UP INTO                 
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. EXPECT THE WIDTH OF THE PCPN TO SHRINK                     
TONIGHT...AS DRY AIR AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND DRY SLOT MOVING IN                  
FROM BEHIND TO PINCH THE MOISTURE FIELD INTO FRI MORN. EXISTING                 
FORECAST HAD PRETTY GOOD TIMING ON PCPN...SO DID NOT MAKE MANY                  
ADJUSTMENTS. CONTINUED THE DECREASING CLOUDS OVERNIGHT FROM SW TO NE            
ACROSS THE CWA. SHOULD SEE A PERIOD OF PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES MOVING               
THROUGH THE CWA BEHIND THE FRONT...BEFORE UPPER LOW MOVES CLOSE                 
ENOUGH TO MOVE H850-700 MOISTURE/CLOUDS OVER THE KIWD AREA LATE                 
TONIGHT.                                                                        
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM NEARLY BECOMES VERTICALLY STACKED DURING THE                
DAY ON FRI...AS IT DRIFTS TO THE SE. LOOKS LIKE THERE WILL BE A                 
BROAD AREA OF CLOUDS AND SHOWERS ACROSS MN AND WI...AS COLD H850                
TEMPS NEARLY WRAP ALL THE WAY AROUND THE LOW. BEST CHANCE OF PCPN               
TOMORROW LOOKS TO BE S AND W OF A LINE FROM KCMX TO KESC...MAINLY               
IN THE AFTN AS H850 COLD NOSE MOVES N INTO THE AREA AND SFC LOW                 
MOVES TO JUST N OF KIWD. EXPECT A FEW SHOWERS TO DEVELOP THROUGH                
THE DAY. WITH COLD AIR ALOFT MOVING AROUND THE LOW...IT SHOULD                  
PRODUCE FAIRLY STEEP LLVL LAPSE RATES BETWEEN SFC AND H750                      
INVERSION. THIS COMBINED WITH PLENTY OF MOISTURE BELOW THE                      
INVERSION...SHOULD ALLOW SHOWERS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE SW PART OF               
THE CWA AND GRADUALLY SHIFT NE. DID EXPAND THE CHANCE PCPN AREA                 
FARTHER TO THE NE DURING THE AFTN...BUT LEFT THE FAR ERN CWA IN                 
SLIGHT CHANCES DUE TO DRY SLOT STILL WORKING OUT OF THAT AREA.                  
OVERALL...EXPECT THE SHOWERS TO BE HIT OR MISS...WITH QPF BEING                 
LIGHT DUE TO LIMITED CLOUD DEPTH. ADDED SOME SLIGHT CHANCES OF                  
SNOW ALONG THE WI BORDER AREA FOR LATE TOMORROW AFTN. H850 TEMPS                
DROP FROM -2C AT 18Z FRI TO AROUND -5-6C AT 0Z. SFC TEMPS SHOULD                
ALSO DROP DURING THE AFTN ALONG THE WI BORDER...WITH VALUES IN THE              
UPPER 30S BY 00Z. WBZ HEIGHTS WILL DROP BELOW 1.5KFT AGL BETWEEN                
21-00Z ON NAM AND LOCAL HI-RES WRF-ARW. SO WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED               
IF PCPN MIXED WITH SNOW IN THE STRONGER SHOWERS LATE IN THE DAY                 
FRI.                                                                            
LONGER TERM...00Z SAT ONWARD...                                                 
NAM SHOWS THE CLOSED 500 MB LOW AND TROUGH AFFECTING THE UPPER GREAT            
LAKES 00Z SAT AND THEN SLOWLY TAKES THE LOW EAST WITH THE LOW                   
CROSSING NORTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN ON SAT. MORE SHORTWAVE ENERGY DROPS             
DOWN THE BACKSIDE OF THE TROUGH SAT NIGHT AND SUN AND HELPS KEEP THE            
CLOSED 500 MB LOW FROM MOVING TO FAR TO THE EAST OF THE LAKE                    
SUPERIOR REGION. NAM SHOWS SOME WEAK 850-500 MB Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE            
PASSING ACROSS THE CWA FRI NIGHT WITH AMPLE MOISTURE AND THEN THE               
CONVERGENCE STAYS OVER THE NORTH AND EASTERN CWA ON SAT. NAM SHOWING            
SOME ISENTROPIC LIFT ON I280K-I295K SURFACES AND MOISTURE FRI NIGHT             
WITH LIFT MOVING OUT SAT NIGHT. SYSTEM IS REALLY WRAPPED UP ON THE              
ISENTROPIC SURFACES. COLD AIR WILL COME IN SLOWLY FROM THE SW FOR               
FRI NIGHT AND PUT IN SOME SNOW MIX FOR THE WEST HALF. BEST MOISTURE             
IS GONE THEN...BUT COULD STILL SEE UP TO 2 INCHES OF SNOW IN A FEW              
SPOTS FOR FRI NIGHT ANYWAY. COLD AIR SLOWLY MOVES EAST ON SAT...BUT             
DOES NOT GET INTO THE FAR EASTERN CWA UNTIL SAT EVENING. MOISTURE IS            
STILL NOT THAT PLENTIFUL ON SAT...BUT COULD SEE ANOTHER 2 INCHES                
ACROSS THE WEST. LAKE EFFECT REALLY GETS GOING THEN AS IT IS COLD               
ENOUGH AT 850 MB TO ADD SOME LAKE MOISTURE INTO THE EQUATION AS                 
WINDS TURN TO THE NORTH DURING THE DAY. OVERALL...BESIDES MOVING THE            
COLD AIR IN QUICKER AND CHANGING THE PCPN OVER TO SNOW QUICKER OVER             
THE WEST...DID NOT MAKE MANY CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST.                     
IN THE EXTENDED...GFS...ECMWF AND CANADIAN ALL SHOW A 500 MB TROUGH             
AND LOW ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES 00Z MON WITH TROUGHING                     
REMAINING THROUGH 00Z TUE WHILE RIDGING BUILDS INTO THE NORTHERN                
PLAINS. THE RIDGE THEN MOVES IN FOR 00Z WED WITH ANOTHER TROUGH THEN            
FOR THU AFFECTING THE NORTHERN PLAINS. WILL KEEP LAKE EFFECT PCPN IN            
THROUGH TUE MORNING...THEN GO DRY THROUGH THE REST OF THE EXTENDED              
PERIOD. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO STAY NEAR NORMAL. DID NOT MAKE ANY HUGE            
CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED AS GOING FORECAST LOOKED PRETTY GOOD.                   
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION (FOR THE 18Z TAF ISSUANCE)...                                         
A QUIET FIRST PART OF THE TAF PERIOD IS EXPECTED...AS CIRRUS MOVE               
OVER BOTH TAF SITES. AREA OF SHOWERS CURRENTLY STRETCHING FROM KDLH             
TO KRHI...TO KOSH...WILL CONTINUE TO ROTATE NORTH AND START                     
AFFECTING THE TAF SITES AFTER 22Z. EXPECT THE PCPN TO CONTINUE OFF              
AND ON THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS...WITH MAINLY IFR TO MVFR                      
CIGS/VSBYS...BEFORE COMING TO AN END AFTER 06Z TONIGHT.  KEPT LOWER             
VSBYS AND CIGS AFTER 06Z AT KSAW FOR A TIME...AS SE WINDS AND                   
EXISTING MOISTURE SHOULD PRODUCE IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS BELOW THE               
INVERSION AND DRY AIR ALOFT. BROUGHT THE CONDITIONS BACK UP TO VFR              
LATE TONIGHT AND TOMORROW MORNING AT BOTH SITES...AS DRIER AIR MOVES            
IN BEFORE ADDITIONAL SHOWERS LATER IN THE DAY. ALSO KEPT THE MENTION            
OF WIND SHEAR IN LATE THIS EVENING AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...AS            
STRONG JET ALOFT OF 35-45KTS SLIDE THROUGH.                                     
&&                                                                              
.MARINE...                                                                      
SFC LOW OVER MN WILL SLOWLY DRIFT TO THE NE ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT              
LAKES THROUGH SATURDAY AFTN. EXPECT THE FEW NE GALE FORCE GUSTS                 
NEAR THE ARROWHEAD OF MN TO DIMINISH THIS EVENING...BUT MAY SEE                 
SOME GUSTS TO 30KTS EARLY AND SE GUSTS TO 30KTS ACROSS ERN                      
SUPERIOR THROUGH THE NIGHT. AS THE LOW MOVES ACROSS THE                         
AREA...WINDS SHOULD BE IN THE 15 TO 25 KNOTS RANGE...BEFORE                     
STRENGTHENING ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE LOW. EXPECT GALE FORCE GUSTS              
ACROSS MOST OF LAKE SUPERIOR ON SAT AND SUN. THE LOW WILL EXIT THE              
REGION ON SUN...WITH HIGH PRESSURE MOVING OVER THE WRN GREAT LAKES              
FOR MON THROUGH THURS...KEEPING WINDS LESS THAN 25 KNOTS.                       
&&                                                                              
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
UPPER MICHIGAN...NONE.                                                          
LAKE SUPERIOR...NONE.                                                           
LAKE MICHIGAN...NONE.                                                           
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SYNOPSIS...SRF                                                                  
SHORT TERM...SRF                                                                
LONG TERM...GM                                                                  
AVIATION...SRF                                                                  
MARINE...SRF                                                                    
</pre> mi                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS                                             
354 PM CST THU NOV 6 2008                                                       
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. THE MSAS HAS A WEAK LOW           
OVER NORTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA. MODELS SHOW THE DISTURBANCE TRACKING              
ACROSS THE NORTHERN ZONES. THE LINE OF SHOWERS AND OCCASIONAL                   
THUNDERSTORMS WAS STRUGGLING...BUT ISOLATED CELLS WERE STARTING TO              
DEVELOP ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE LINE...WILL MAINTAIN STRONG-SEVERE               
WORDING IN THE HWO. CLOUDS HAVE BEEN SLOW TO MOVE INTO THE                      
SOUTHEAST...MAY STILL BE SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS OVERNIGHT...SO               
LEFT MENTION OF PATCHY FOG IN THE HWO ALSO. THERE WAS ABOUT 25KTS OF            
SOUTHWESTERLY LOW AROUND 850MB. THE LLJ WAS NOT IMPRESSIVE...BUT                
SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO STEER ACTIVITY AND MAINTAIN THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH           
THE EVENING. IT WAS WARMEST ALONG THE RIVER...WITH TVR BEING AROUND             
80. RUC ALSO HAS THE BETTER INSTABILITY ALONG THE RIVER. EXPECTING              
THERE TO BE MOSTLY RAIN AFTER SUNSET WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING. THE              
LINE DID SLOW DOWN TREMENDOUSLY...SO BELIEVE RAIN WILL BE LINGERING             
INTO THE AFTERNOON FOR THE EASTERN ZONES. ADDED SLIGHT CHANCE VALUES            
BACK TO THE METRO AREA ALSO. LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...FAIR            
WEATHER RETURNS. IT SHOULD BE CLEAR AND COOL FOR THE WEEKEND.                   
MADE A FEW ADJUSTMENTS TO GUIDANCE TEMPS. LOWERED VALUES SEVERAL                
DEGREES NEARLY EACH DAY OF THE SHORT TERM. LOOKING AT 850 TEMPS AND             
CLIMO...GUIDANCE SEEMED A LITTLE WARM. KEPT POPS FROM PREVIOUS                  
FORECAST...NEW GUIDANCE VALUES WERE NOT DRAMATICALLY DIFFERENT.                 
OVERALL...NO REAL CHANGES TO THE FORECAST.                                      
.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.                                           
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN TO WARM AND SLIGHTLY                
MOISTEN ON MONDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN FLATTENS OUT AND THE LOW           
LEVEL FLOW BECOMES MORE FROM THE SOUTHEAST.                                     
CONFIDENCE IN HOW THE FORECAST WILL PAN OUT REALLY DROPS OFF AFTER              
MONDAY.  BOTH THE GFS AND THE EUROPEAN ARE AT LEAST BRINGING OUR                
NEXT SYSTEM INTO THE FORECAST AREA ON TUESDAY.  HOWEVER...THAT`S                
ABOUT THE ONLY AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE TWO.  THE GFS IS THE MORE                  
PROGRESSIVE OF THE TWO MODELS WITH PUSHING THE SURFACE LOW AND                  
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA BY TUESDAY NIGHT AND            
ESSENTIALLY DRYING US OUT THROUGH MUCH OF WEDNESDAY.  IT THEN BRINGS            
THE NEXT DISTURBANCE INTO AND THROUGH THE AREA THROUGH THE DAY                  
THURSDAY.                                                                       
THE EUROPEAN ON THE OTHER HAND STALLS THE BOUNDARY ASSOCIATED WITH              
TUESDAY`S SYSTEM OVER THE CWA...THEN DEVELOPS AND SENDS A SERIES OF             
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES THROUGH THE FORECAST WEDNESDAY AND AGAIN               
THURSDAY NIGHT.                                                                 
GIVEN THESE DISCREPANCIES IN THE MODELS DURING THE LATTER HALF OF               
THE FORECAST PERIOD...I`LL STICK CLOSE TO GUIDANCE NUMBERS. /19/                
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT JAN/GTR/MEI/PIB THROUGH              
MOST OF THE EVENING WITH CLOUD LAYERS GENERALLY ABOVE 4000 FEET.                
SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS CONTAINING MVFR/IFR CIGS/VSBYS WILL AFFECT              
GLH TO GWO AS WE GO INTO THE LATE AFTN AND EVENING...THEN JAN/GTR               
AFTER 06Z...AND MEI AND PIB AFTER 09Z. VFR CONDITIONS WILL RETURN TO            
GLH/GWO/JAN FOR FRIDAY MORNING AS THE FRONT MOVES EWD WITH IFR TO               
MVFR CONDITIONS AND RAINFALL ENDING AT MEI AND PIB BY EARLY                     
AFTERNOON. /EC/                                                                 
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
JACKSON       61  71  41  72 /  88  61   7   0                                  
MERIDIAN      60  71  41  71 /  68  73  16   0                                  
VICKSBURG     58  69  41  72 /  89  37   3   0                                  
HATTIESBURG   63  74  46  73 /  40  71  17   0                                  
NATCHEZ       59  69  42  73 /  89  58   3   0                                  
GREENVILLE    55  67  40  68 /  80  11   4   0                                  
GREENWOOD     57  67  40  67 /  89  29   4   0                                  
&&                                                                              
.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
MS...NONE.                                                                      
LA...NONE.                                                                      
AR...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
7/EC                                                                            
</pre> ms                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD                                            
322 PM CST THU NOV 6 2008                                                       
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY                                          
FORECAST FOCUS ON BLIZZARD CONDITIONS THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT.                 
AFTER MUCH HOOPLA...WELL ADVERTISED WINTER STORM FINALLY TAKEN                  
SHAPE OVER NORTH-CENTRAL AND NORTHEASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA. CURRENT                 
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWING WELL DEFINED UPPER LOW CENTERED NEAR                
SIOUX FALLS...WITH DRY SLOT CURRENTLY WRAPPING N/NWWD INTO SRN MN.              
MSAS SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWING PRIMARY LOW PRESSURE CENTER NOW                   
CONSOLIDATING OVER SRN MN AS IMPRESSIVE 130M HEIGHT FALLS AT H5                 
OVERSPREAD THE AREA. AS SUCH...VERY TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT                     
RESIDING OVER THE DAKOTAS WITH CURRENT WIND GUSTS IN THE 30 TO 50               
MPH OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF SD WHERE BLIZZARD CONDITIONS                       
CONTINUE. CLOSER TO HOME...AREA RADARS CURRENTLY SHOWING A                      
PRONOUNCED INCREASE IN PRECIP COVERAGE AS NEXT SLUG OF MOISTURE                 
ASSOCIATED WITH WARM CONVEYOR BELT ROTATES INTO THE AREA FROM THE               
E/NE.                                                                           
INITIAL FORECAST PROBLEM THIS EVENING WILL BE TIMING DEVELOPMENT                
AND/OR CHANGEOVER TO SNOW. NAM/GFS/RUC THERMAL PROGS AND SOUNDINGS              
INDICATE THAT AREAS WEST OF THE JAMES VALLEY WILL SEE A QUICKER                 
CHANGEOVER TO SNOW DUE TO COLDER SFC TEMPS /LIKELY BY 4PM CST/.                 
FURTHER EAST...18Z SOUNDING AT KABR SHOWED WARMER BOUNDARY LAYER                
TEMPS WHICH WILL TAKE SOME TIME TO DIABATICALLY COOL...PROBABLY                 
DELAYING ONSET OF ACCUMULATING SNOW TO AROUND 4 OR 5PM AT                       
ABERDEEN...AND POSSIBILITY AS LATE AS 6PM ALONG I-29 NEAR                       
SISSETON.                                                                       
ONCE SNOW BEGINS...BELIEVE WE WILL SEE SOME RATHER IMPRESSIVE                   
SNOWFALL RATES AND REDUCTIONS IN VISIBILITY DUE TO COMBINATION OF               
PLENTIFUL MOISTURE /4 TO 5 G/KG/...STRONG LIFT THROUGH THE                      
DENDRITIC ZONE...AND LOW STATIC STABILITY. SNOWFALL RATES OF AN                 
INCH OR TWO PER HOUR WILL BE POSSIBLE IN HEAVIER BANDS.                         
VISIBILITIES ARE STILL FORECAST TO DROP BELOW 1/4 MILE AT TIMES                 
DUE TO FALLING/BLOWING SNOW...RESULTING IN OCCASIONAL BLIZZARD                  
CONDITIONS.                                                                     
GFS/NAM AND LOCAL HIRES WRF-ARW MODELS INDICATE THAT THE HEAVIEST SNOW          
SHOULD GENERALLY FALL BETWEEN 00Z AND 09Z...WITH A GRADUALLY                    
DECREASE IN THE PRECIP INTENSITY/COVERAGE BY FRIDAY MORNING AS                  
ANOTHER SURGE OF DRY AIR WRAPS INTO THE AREA. TOTAL SNOWFALL                    
AMOUNTS REMAIN SOMEWHAT PROBLEMATIC DUE TO BANDING                              
POTENTIAL...BUT BELIEVE A FEW LOCATIONS COULD SEE 4 TO 8 INCHES BY              
FRIDAY AFTERNOON...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS WITHIN M0RE                      
PERSISTENT BANDS. OF COURSE WITH 40+ MPH WINDS...MEASURING SNOW                 
WITH ANY ACCURACY IS ALWAYS A TREAT. COULD ALSO SEE ANOTHER                     
PERIOD OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN/DRIZZLE ON FRIDAY AS MODEL SOUNDINGS              
SHOW A LOSS OF ICE IN THE CLOUDS.                                               
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL GRADUALLY SLIDE OFF THE EAST ON FRIDAY                 
NIGHT AND SATURDAY ENDING ANY AND ALL PRECIP. WITH EXPECTED                     
SNOWCOVER...BELIEVE TEMPS WILL BE RATHER CHILLY FRIDAY NIGHT /20S               
OR TEENS/ AND SATURDAY /LOW 30S/.                                               
.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY                                         
FAIR AGREEMENT BETWEEN MEDIUM RANGE MODELS. HPC GUIDANCE AND                    
MODELS CONTINUE TO POINT TO A DRY PERIOD THROUGH THE EXTENDED                   
PERIOD. STAYED WITH THE IDEA OF TEMPERATURES BELOW CLIMATOLOGICAL               
NORMALS EXPECTING AFFECTS OF NEW SNOW FIELD TO HOLD VALUES LOW.                 
OTHERWISE MADE FEW ADJUSTMENTS TO GOING GRIDS THAT APPEAR TO BE IN              
GOOD SHAPE.                                                                     
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
A WINTER STORM IS SPOOLING UP OVER THE AREA. VERY STRONG NORTHWEST              
SURFACE WINDS WILL BE THE RULE ACROSS THE AREA WITH GUSTS                       
APPROACHING 50 KTS. FREEZING RAIN IS COMMON WEST OF THE MISSOURI                
RIVER AND IS SPREADING EAST. AS TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO FALL THE               
FREEZING PRECIPITATION WILL CHANGE OVER TO SNOW AND BE HEAVY AT                 
TIMES. CEILINGS AND VISIBILITY WILL IMPROVE AT TIMES TO NEAR MVFR               
BUT IFR WILL BE MORE COMMON THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING.                           
&&                                                                              
.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
SD...BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 12 PM CST /11 AM MST/ FRIDAY FOR BROWN-             
     BUFFALO-CAMPBELL-CLARK-CORSON-DAY-DEWEY-EDMUNDS-FAULK-HAND-                
     HUGHES-HYDE-JONES-LYMAN-MARSHALL-MCPHERSON-POTTER-SPINK-                   
     STANLEY-SULLY-WALWORTH.                                                    
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 12 PM CST FRIDAY FOR CODINGTON-              
     DEUEL-GRANT-HAMLIN-ROBERTS.                                                
MN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 12 PM CST FRIDAY FOR BIG STONE-              
     TRAVERSE.                                                                  
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHORT TERM...FOWLE                                                              
LONG TERM...KEEFE                                                               
AVIATION...KEEFE                                                                
WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN                                                            
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