AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC                                          
149 PM EDT SUN SEP 30 2007                                                      
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINANT THE REGION THROUGH EARLY WEEK.               
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST                   
MON AND THEN INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO FOR MID WEEK.                              
&&                                                                              
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...                                         
THIS MORNING STARTED OUT RATHER COOL WITH TEMPS DROPPING INTO THE               
50S AWAY FROM THE COAST. MANY INLAND LOCATIONS DROPPED INTO THE                 
LOWER 50S SO A FEW UPPER 40S LIKELY OCCURRED...MAINLY IN WIND                   
SHELTERED AREAS. CLOSER TO THE COAST TEMPS RANGE FROM THE UPPER                 
50S TO THE MID-UPPER 60S ALONG THE IMMEDIATE BEACH FRONT.                       
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED ACROSS THE NE U.S. WILL HOLD FIRM ACROSS                 
THE CAROLINAS AND GEORGIA TODAY AS THE UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE                   
LOWER-MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY PROPAGATES SLOWLY EASTWARD. A DRY NE               
FLOW WILL KEEP TEMPS RATHER FALL LIKE WITH OBSERVED 1000-850MB                  
THICKNESSES OFF THE 30/12Z RAOBS AT CHS/JAX SUPPORTING HIGHS IN                 
THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S. WILL LOWER TEMPS A DEG OR TWO ALONG                
THE LOWER SC COAST BUT TEMPS ELSEWHERE LOOK ON TARGET. DRY WX WILL              
PERSIST WITH CONSIDERABLE DRY AIR NOTED JUST OFF THE SURFACE. THE               
ONLY EXCEPTION MAY BE ALONG THE UPPER GA COAST WHERE LOW-LVL                    
MOISTURE IS MORE PLENTIFUL. AN ISOLD SHOWER OR TWO CAN NOT BE                   
COMPLETELY RULED OUT THERE WITH BETTER CHANGES MUCH FARTHER S...                
BUT PROBABILITIES LOOK TOO LOW TO JUSTIFY A MENTION ATTM.                       
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW AN EXTENSIVE STRATOCUMULUS FIELD                  
OVER THE COASTAL WATERS WITH EVEN A FEW SHOWERS NOTED ALONG THE                 
WESTERN WALL OF THE GULF STREAM. THE BULK OF THIS CLOUD COVER WILL              
REMAIN OFFSHORE BUT SOME IT WILL LIKELY BRUSH THE COAST THROUGH                 
THE AFTERNOON...PARTICULARLY N COASTAL GA. THERE IS ALSO SOME                   
INDICATION THAT A SHALLOW CUMULUS FIELD WILL FORM S OF THE I-16                 
CORRIDOR. SUNNY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WILL PREVAIL INLAND WITH                  
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AT THE COAST.                                               
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...                          
HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR N WILL SLIP OFF THE COAST TONIGHT INTO MON                 
WHILE SLOWLY LOSING IT/S GRIP OVER US. THE E/NE FLOW MAY BRING A FEW            
SHOWERS TO COASTAL GA BUT OTHERWISE DRY WX IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE.             
LOWS WILL DROP INTO THE MID/UPPER 50S TONIGHT INLAND WITH MID/UPPER             
60S NEAR THE COAST. HIGHS MON WILL REBOUND SLIGHTLY WITH MORE OF AN             
ONSHORE FLOW EXPECTED...ALTHOUGH THIS WILL ALSO YIELD A FEW MORE                
CLOUDS. IT WILL CONTINUE TO BE BREEZY...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST.             
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...                                   
NOT MUCH CHANGE TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST. STILL APPEARS AS THOUGH AN            
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OFF THE SE U.S. COAST MON AND THEN            
SHIFT W INTO THE GULF OF MEX FOR MID WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN            
N OF THIS SYSTEM LOOKS TO KEEP THINGS MAINLY DRY OVER OUR AREA.                 
HOWEVER...DID NOT FEEL COMFORTABLE REMOVING POPS COMPLETELY AT THIS             
POINT. AS LONG AS THE WARMER AND DRIER PATTERN PANS OUT...TEMPS                 
SHOULD GENERALLY BE ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.                            
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...                                        
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. MAINLY                 
NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KNOTS AND INCREASING AFTER                 
SUNRISE. THIS IS DUE TO THE PINCHING GRADIENT BETWEEN THE HIGH                  
SLOWLY MOVING OFFSHORE AND THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PUSHING NORTHWEST            
JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA.                                                         
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...VFR CONDITIONS WILL GENERALLY PREVAIL               
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.                                                 
&&                                                                              
.MARINE...                                                                      
NO CHANGES ARE PLANNED FOR THE GOING FORECAST. SOLID SMALL CRAFT                
ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE IN PROGRESS ACROSS THE ENTIRE MARINE AREA               
THIS MORNING WITH WINDS NE 25 KT AND SEAS 5-8 FT NEAR SHORE AND                 
8-11 FT BEYOND 20 NM. THE SAVANNAH PILOT BOAT RECENTLY REPORTED NE              
WINDS OF 25-30 KT AND SEAS OF 6-8 FT 10 MILES E OF THE SAVANNAH                 
RIVER ENTRANCE. THE CHARLESTON HARBOR PILOT BOAT REPORTED NE WINDS              
20-25 KT WITH SEAS OF 6 FT 8 MILES E OF THE HARBOR ENTRANCE. WE                 
ARE STILL MONITORING FOR A POSSIBLE UPGRADE TO A GALE WARNING FOR               
OUR GA WATERS WITH THE AFTERNOON FORECAST PACKAGE.                              
A TIGHT SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT...LOW-LEVEL JETTING AND GOOD                  
MIXING PROFILES...ESPECIALLY AT NIGHT...WILL KEEP STRONG NORTHEAST              
WINDS IN PLACE ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH MONDAY. AS A                   
RESULT...A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR ALL                   
COASTAL WATERS AND THE CHARLESTON HARBOR. THERE IS EVEN THE                     
POSSIBILITY THAT AS LOW LEVEL WINDS INCREASE LATE TODAY INTO                    
TONIGHT...FREQUENT GUSTS TO GALE FORCE MAY BE EXPERIENCED OVER THE              
OUTER GEORGIA WATERS...THEREFORE REQUIRING A GALE WARNING TO BE                 
ISSUED AT A LATER TIME.                                                         
THE LONG FETCH WILL ALLOW SWELLS TO CONTINUE TO BUILD...PEAKING                 
OUT LATE MONDAY IN THE 7-9 FT RANGE IN THE SOUTH CAROLINA NEAR SHORE            
WATERS...8-10 FT RANGE IN THE GEORGIA NEAR SHORE WATERS AND 10-12 FT            
IN THE OUTER GEORGIA WATERS.                                                    
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN OVER THE NORTHWEST ATLANTIC                  
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MAY APPROACH THE             
WATERS MID-WEEK...WITH HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDING BACK INTO THE                
AREA FROM THE NORTH BY THE END OF THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK. WINDS WILL            
BEGIN TO DIMINISH LATE MONDAY...AT WHICH TIME THE SMALL CRAFT                   
ADVISORY FOR CHARLESTON HARBOR CAN BE DROPPED. THERE WILL BE SOME               
LAG FROM WHEN WINDS BEGIN TO DIMINISH TO WHEN SEAS FALL BELOW SMALL             
CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA...WHICH IS EXPECTED TO BE SOMETIME TUESDAY              
NIGHT FOR THE NEAR SHORE WATERS AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR THE OUTER               
GEORGIA WATERS.                                                                 
LAKE WINDS...GOOD MIXING PROFILES AND 25-30 KT LOW LEVEL WINDS ARE              
LIKELY RESULTING IN STRONG NORTHEAST WINDS OVER LAKE MOULTRIE THIS              
MORNING. THE LATEST OBSERVATION FROM PINEVILLE SHOWED WINDS                     
GUSTING OVER 20 MPH...WHICH IS PRETTY HIGH CONSIDERING PARCELS ARE              
ORIGINATING OVER LAND VERSUS THE WARMER LAKE WATERS. THE LATEST                 
RUC SOUNDINGS WILL STILL SUPPORT AT LEAST 25 KT WIND GUSTS WITH                 
HIGHER WINDS TONIGHT...SO THE LAKE WIND ADVISORY WILL BE EXTENDED               
THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.                                                         
RIP CURRENTS...THE COMBINATION OF A STRONG NORTHEAST FLOW AND LONG              
PERIOD SWELLS IMPACTING THE SURF ZONE WILL RESULT IN A HIGH RISK OF             
RIP CURRENTS TODAY. THE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED               
INTO THE FIRST PART OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.                                       
&&                                                                              
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...                                                      
THE COASTAL FLOOD WARNING AND COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY HAVE EXPIRED.              
WE ARE CAREFULLY MONITORING TRENDS IN CASE ANOTHER ADVISORY IS                  
NEEDED FOR THIS EVENING/S HIGH TIDE CYCLE. COASTAL FLOODING HAS                 
BEEN REPORTED IN A NUMBER OF AREAS TODAY ALONG WITH MODERATE TO                 
SEVERE BEACH EROSION. THE WORST EROSION AND HIGH SURF CONTINUES                 
ACROSS N COASTAL GEORGIA WHERE SURF BREAKERS REMAIN IN THE 5-7 FT               
RANGE. PICTURES FROM THE TYBEE ISLAND AREA INDICATE EXTREMELY                   
DANGEROUS SURF IS OCCURRING. MANY THANKS TO THE SAVANNAH MEDIA                  
FOR RELAYING PICTURES AND REPORTS TO US. ANY ADDITIONAL REPORTS                 
WOULD BE GREATLY APPRECIATED.                                                   
A COASTAL FLOOD WATCH WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT BEGINNING WITH THE HIGH             
TIDE CYCLE TONIGHT AND CONTINUING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.                         
A HIGH SURF ADVISORY IS ALREADY IN EFFECT FOR NORTHERN COASTAL                  
GEORGIA WITH TYBEE LIFEGUARD OFFICIALS REPORTING 5 FT BREAKERS AT               
LAST CHECK. A HIGH SURF ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR SOUTHERN                     
COASTAL SOUTH CAROLINA BY TONIGHT OR MONDAY. PRELIMINARY THOUGHTS               
ARE TO EXPAND THE ADVISORY NORTH UP TO EDISTO BEACH...BUT WILL                  
FINALIZE THAT LATER THIS AFTERNOON.                                             
&&                                                                              
.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
GA...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT MONDAY FOR GAZ117-119-139-               
     141.                                                                       
     COASTAL FLOOD WATCH FROM 9 PM EDT THIS EVENING THROUGH LATE                
     MONDAY NIGHT FOR GAZ117-119-139-141.                                       
SC...COASTAL FLOOD WATCH FROM 9 PM EDT THIS EVENING THROUGH LATE                
     MONDAY NIGHT FOR SCZ048>051.                                               
     LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT MONDAY FOR SCZ045.                      
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR AMZ350-352-          
     354.                                                                       
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR AMZ374.                   
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT MONDAY FOR AMZ330.                     
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
ST/REV                                                                          
</pre> ga                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL                                             
1217 PM CDT SUN SEP 30 2007                                                     
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
ISSUED 1019 AM CDT SUN SEP 30 2007                                              
ONLY SLIGHT MODIFICATIONS THIS MORNING TO ACCOUNT FOR 7K FT DECK                
OVER SOUTHERN ILLINOIS ADVECTING INTO LWV AREA. WOULD EXPECT THAT               
THIS AREA SHOULD EVENTUALLY DISSAPATE BUT MAY BE INDICATIVE OF                  
ENOUGH MOISTURE TO DEVELOP SCATTERED CUMULUS. HAVE ADJUSTED SKY                 
COVER GRIDS UPWARD AND SENT UPDATED ZFP TO REFLECT INCREASED CLOUDS.            
ONLY OTHER CHANGE IS TO REDUCE WIND GUSTS A TAD NEXT FEW HOURS AS               
WINCHESTER PROFILER AND VWP SUGGEST THAT THE STRONGER GUSTS                     
PROBABLY WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL EARLY AFTERNOON.                                   
OTHERWISE LAMP AND MET BOTH SUGGEST CURRENT FORECAST ON TRACK WITH              
TEMPS EXPECTED TO BE 10-15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL TODAY.                          
BARKER                                                                          
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
ISSUED 1216 PM CDT SUN SEP 30 2007                                              
TERMINAL FORECASTS FOR 18Z WILL REFLECT A SLIGHT SLOW DOWN IN                   
PRECIP ONSET AND FONTAL PASSAGE TONIGHT COMPARED WITH 12Z PACKAGE.              
INITIAL TSRA WINDOW NOW EXPECTED TO BEGIN AROUND 03Z IN PIA AND                 
05Z IN CMI. UNTIL THEN WINDS WILL BE BIGGEST AVIATION HAZARD. IT                
APPEARS THAT 850-925MB MOMENTUM EVIDENT AT WINCHESTER PROFILER                  
THROUGH THE MORNING NOW BEGINNING TO WORK DOWN AND GUSTINESS NOW                
REACHING THE SURFACE. THIS WAS A BIT SLOWER THAN ORIGINAL                       
PROJECTIONS...BUT GUSTS AT 17Z WERE IN THE 21-27 KT RANGE AT THE                
TERMINAL POINTS.                                                                
FOLLOWING FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE TONIGHT...MODELS ARE CONSISTENT IN               
BRINING IN SOME LOW WRAP-AROUND MOISTURE AS DEEP MID-LEVEL LOW                  
PULLS OUT ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. WILL KEEP LOW CIGS AND GUSTY WEST             
WINDS IN FORECAST THROUGH 18Z.                                                  
BARKER                                                                          
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION...                                                             
ISSUED 345 AM CDT SUN SEP 30 2007                                               
A SERIES OF VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WILL SWING THROUGH THE                   
MIDWEST OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS ARE               
WITH GUSTY WINDS THIS AFTERNOON... PRECIP AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES              
TONIGHT WITH STRONG SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH VERSUS LACK OF                        
MOISTURE... FOLLOWED BY THE TIMING NEXT SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH LATE              
TUESDAY.                                                                        
SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY.                                             
STRONG NEUTRAL TILT SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS MOVING ACROSS THE                       
ROCKIES THIS MORNING... WITH RUC ANALYSIS SHOWING AND WATER VAPOR               
IMAGERY SUPPORTING... A CLOSED MID-LEVEL LOW OVER CENTRAL                       
COLORADO. LEE CYCLONE TAKING SHAPE OVER SOUTHEAST COLORADO AS                   
WELL... WITH 3 AND 6-HR ISALLOBARS SUGGESTING THIS WILL MOVE                    
NORTHEASTWARD INTO SW NEBRASKA THIS MORNING.                                    
DESPITE STRONG LOW LEVEL JET ACROSS THE PLAINS... LOW LEVEL                     
MOISTURE ADVECTION REMAINS FAIRLY WEAK. SOLID 60S SFC DEWPOINTS                 
REMAIN ACROSS TEXAS... THOUGH SFC OBS SUGGEST WE ARE FINALLY                    
SEEING A DEEPER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AXIS TAKING SHAPE ACROSS THE                 
TX PANHANDLE. EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER... WE ARE STILL VERY                
MUCH UNDER CONTROL OF SPRAWLING HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR EAST... WHICH              
HAS KEPT THE AIRMASS VERY DRY ACROSS THE REGION. SFC RIDGE AXIS                 
ARCING TO THE SOUTHWEST HAS ALSO KEPT THE GULF MORE OR LESS CLOSED              
OFF FOR THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS... THUS THE VERY NARROW MOIST AXIS.               
VERY LITTLE CHANGES TO THE FORECAST REASONING FROM THE PAST FEW                 
SHIFTS. STRONG/DYNAMIC SYSTEM WILL BE MOVING THROUGH... WITH VERY               
LITTLE MOISTURE TO WORK WITH... ESPECIALLY THIS SIDE OF THE                     
MISSISSIPPI. SPC 4KM WRF-NMM SUPPORTS PREVIOUS THINKING WITH A                  
NARROW SQUALL LINE APPROACHING THE MISS RIVER LATE THIS                         
AFTERNOON/EARLY THIS EVENING... THEN RAPIDLY WEAKENING INTO                     
SCATTERED SHOWERS SOON THERE AFTER.                                             
KEPT POPS PRETTY MUCH THE SAME... HIGHEST IN THE FAR WEST...                    
TAPERING OFF QUICKLY TO THE EAST. VERY NARROW WINDOW WHERE STRONG               
LIFT WILL MAKE THE MOST OF WHAT MEAGER MOISTURE IS AVAILABLE...                 
AND ANY RAINFALL IS NOT EXPECTED TO LAST VERY LONG AS THE FRONT                 
WILL BE HAULING THROUGH.                                                        
HOWEVER... INCREASING PRESSURE GRADIENT THIS AFTERNOON... AND H85               
WINDS INCREASING TO 40-45 KTS... COMBINED WITH EFFICIENT MIXING IN              
A DRY ATMOSPHERE... WILL ALLOW FOR SOME GUSTY CONDITIONS THIS                   
AFTERNOON. NOTED WIND GUSTS OVER NE/KS YESTERDAY AFTERNOON WERE                 
MAINLY IN THE 25-35 KT RANGE. MODELS SUGGEST STRONGEST CORE OF LOW              
LEVEL JET WILL REMAIN TO OUR NORTHWEST... WITH H85 WINDS DECREASING             
SLIGHTLY THIS AFTERNOON PER NORMAL DIURNAL TRENDS.  SOUNDINGS                   
SUGGEST MIXING TO AROUND H85... SIMILAR TO CONDITIONS OVER THE                  
HIGHER-ELEVATION GREAT PLAINS YESTERDAY. CONSIDERING ALL THIS...                
EXPECT WIND GUSTS WILL REMAIN BELOW WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA...                   
GENERALLY BETWEEN 25-30 KTS ACROSS THE AREA... WITH ISOLATED                    
GUSTS AROUND 35 KTS/40 MPH IN TYPICALLY WINDIER LOCATIONS... SUCH               
AS KBMI.                                                                        
MONDAY LOOKS DRY WITH BRIEF SHORTWAVE RIDGING COMING THROUGH...                 
BUT WE COULD SEE SOME STUBBORN STRATOCU DEVELOP AND STICK AROUND                
THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA... HOLDING TEMPERATURES BACK A FEW                 
DEGREES.                                                                        
TIMING OF THE NEXT SYSTEM IS TRENDING SLIGHTLY FASTER... WITH                   
GFS/ECMWF SOLUTIONS MORE OR LESS KEEPING PACE WITH ONE ANOTHER...               
AND THE NAM REMAINING A SLOW OUTLIER. HAVE THEREFORE MODESTLY                   
INCREASED POPS ACROSS THE WEST FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON. BULK OF                   
PRECIP WILL LIKELY MOVE THROUGH THE AREA TUE NIGHT.                             
SECOND SYSTEM NOT QUITE AS STRONG AS THE FIRST... BUT WILL BE A                 
LITTLE MORE BROAD AND NOT QUITE AS MUCH OF A QUICK HITTER. GFS                  
SUGGESTS PREFRONTAL TROUGH KICKING OFF CONVECTION LATE TUE                      
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... THEN SPREADING THIS                  
EAST DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.                                                
MOISTURE SHOULD BE A LITTLE BETTER THE SECOND TIME AROUND... BUT                
STILL NOT OVERLY IMPRESSED WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN                       
POTENTIAL. THE DIFFERENCE HERE IS THAT THE MODELS HAVE BEEN                     
CONSISTENT IN INDICATING THIS SECOND SYSTEM WILL DRAW UP SOME                   
SUBTROPICAL MID/UPPER-LEVEL MOISTURE FROM SOUTH OF BAJA                         
CALIFORNIA.                                                                     
SEVERE WEATHER WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE... ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE FAR               
WEST TUE AFTERNOON. SOME CONCERN THAT THE SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE TAP              
MAY RESULT IN WIDESPREAD CIRRUS SHIELD OVER THE AREA TUESDAY WHICH              
MAY LIMIT INSTABILITY TO SOME DEGREE... BUT DYNAMICS AND SHEAR                  
WILL MORE THAN MAKE UP FOR IT. CONVECTION COULD START AS                        
SUPERCELLS KICKED OFF BY THE PREFRONTAL TROUGH... MOST LIKELY                   
WEST OF OUR AREA TUE AFTERNOON... QUICKLY MERGING INTO ANOTHER                  
SQUALL LINE AS THE MAIN SHORTWAVE AND ATTENDANT SFC COLD FRONT                  
CATCHES UP. FRONTAL PASSAGE WOULD BE AFTER DARK ACROSS MUCH OF OUR              
AREA... WHICH MAY HELP LIMIT SVR POTENTIAL TO SOME DEGREE                       
DEPENDING ON THE AMOUNT OF STABILIZATION THAT CAN OCCUR. MODELS                 
SUGGEST WEAKER SFC LOW MOVING WELL TO OUR NORTHWEST... THUS SFC                 
GRADIENT WINDS WILL NOT BE QUITE AS STRONG... AND MAY THEREFORE                 
NOT KEEP BOUNDARY LAYER MIXED UP ENOUGH AFTER SUNSET.                           
LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.                                         
DRIER WX RETURNS AGAIN FOR WEDNESDAY AND INTO THE END OF THE                    
WORKWEEK... BUT TEMPERATURES WILL STILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL FOR                 
THIS TIME OF YEAR. STRONG WAVES THAT WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THIS                
WEEK ARE OF MORE OF A PACIFIC ORIGIN... SO NO COLD WX OUTBREAKS ON              
THE IMMEDIATE HORIZON.                                                          
NO CHANGES WERE MADE BEYOND DAY 5.                                              
HARDIMAN                                                                        
&&                                                                              
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
NONE.                                                                           
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</pre> il                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL                                             
615 AM CDT SUN SEP 30 2007                                                      
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
ISSUED 345 AM CDT SUN SEP 30 2007                                               
A SERIES OF VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WILL SWING THROUGH THE                   
MIDWEST OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS ARE               
WITH GUSTY WINDS THIS AFTERNOON... PRECIP AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES              
TONIGHT WITH STRONG SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH VERSUS LACK OF                        
MOISTURE... FOLLOWED BY THE TIMING NEXT SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH LATE              
TUESDAY.                                                                        
SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY.                                             
STRONG NEUTRAL TILT SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS MOVING ACROSS THE                       
ROCKIES THIS MORNING... WITH RUC ANALYSIS SHOWING AND WATER VAPOR               
IMAGERY SUPPORTING... A CLOSED MID-LEVEL LOW OVER CENTRAL                       
COLORADO. LEE CYCLONE TAKING SHAPE OVER SOUTHEAST COLORADO AS                   
WELL... WITH 3 AND 6-HR ISALLOBARS SUGGESTING THIS WILL MOVE                    
NORTHEASTWARD INTO SW NEBRASKA THIS MORNING.                                    
DESPITE STRONG LOW LEVEL JET ACROSS THE PLAINS... LOW LEVEL                     
MOISTURE ADVECTION REMAINS FAIRLY WEAK. SOLID 60S SFC DEWPOINTS                 
REMAIN ACROSS TEXAS... THOUGH SFC OBS SUGGEST WE ARE FINALLY                    
SEEING A DEEPER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AXIS TAKING SHAPE ACROSS THE                 
TX PANHANDLE. EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER... WE ARE STILL VERY                
MUCH UNDER CONTROL OF SPRAWLING HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR EAST... WHICH              
HAS KEPT THE AIRMASS VERY DRY ACROSS THE REGION. SFC RIDGE AXIS                 
ARCING TO THE SOUTHWEST HAS ALSO KEPT THE GULF MORE OR LESS CLOSED              
OFF FOR THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS... THUS THE VERY NARROW MOIST AXIS.               
VERY LITTLE CHANGES TO THE FORECAST REASONING FROM THE PAST FEW                 
SHIFTS. STRONG/DYNAMIC SYSTEM WILL BE MOVING THROUGH... WITH VERY               
LITTLE MOISTURE TO WORK WITH... ESPECIALLY THIS SIDE OF THE                     
MISSISSIPPI. SPC 4KM WRF-NMM SUPPORTS PREVIOUS THINKING WITH A                  
NARROW SQUALL LINE APPROACHING THE MISS RIVER LATE THIS                         
AFTERNOON/EARLY THIS EVENING... THEN RAPIDLY WEAKENING INTO                     
SCATTERED SHOWERS SOON THERE AFTER.                                             
KEPT POPS PRETTY MUCH THE SAME... HIGHEST IN THE FAR WEST...                    
TAPERING OFF QUICKLY TO THE EAST. VERY NARROW WINDOW WHERE STRONG               
LIFT WILL MAKE THE MOST OF WHAT MEAGER MOISTURE IS AVAILABLE...                 
AND ANY RAINFALL IS NOT EXPECTED TO LAST VERY LONG AS THE FRONT                 
WILL BE HAULING THROUGH.                                                        
HOWEVER... INCREASING PRESSURE GRADIENT THIS AFTERNOON... AND H85               
WINDS INCREASING TO 40-45 KTS... COMBINED WITH EFFICIENT MIXING IN              
A DRY ATMOSPHERE... WILL ALLOW FOR SOME GUSTY CONDITIONS THIS                   
AFTERNOON. NOTED WIND GUSTS OVER NE/KS YESTERDAY AFTERNOON WERE                 
MAINLY IN THE 25-35 KT RANGE. MODELS SUGGEST STRONGEST CORE OF LOW              
LEVEL JET WILL REMAIN TO OUR NORTHWEST... WITH H85 WINDS DECREASING             
SLIGHTLY THIS AFTERNOON PER NORMAL DIURNAL TRENDS.  SOUNDINGS                   
SUGGEST MIXING TO AROUND H85... SIMILAR TO CONDITIONS OVER THE                  
HIGHER-ELEVATION GREAT PLAINS YESTERDAY. CONSIDERING ALL THIS...                
EXPECT WIND GUSTS WILL REMAIN BELOW WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA...                   
GENERALLY BETWEEN 25-30 KTS ACROSS THE AREA... WITH ISOLATED                    
GUSTS AROUND 35 KTS/40 MPH IN TYPICALLY WINDIER LOCATIONS... SUCH               
AS KBMI.                                                                        
MONDAY LOOKS DRY WITH BRIEF SHORTWAVE RIDGING COMING THROUGH...                 
BUT WE COULD SEE SOME STUBBORN STRATOCU DEVELOP AND STICK AROUND                
THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA... HOLDING TEMPERATURES BACK A FEW                 
DEGREES.                                                                        
TIMING OF THE NEXT SYSTEM IS TRENDING SLIGHTLY FASTER... WITH                   
GFS/ECMWF SOLUTIONS MORE OR LESS KEEPING PACE WITH ONE ANOTHER...               
AND THE NAM REMAINING A SLOW OUTLIER. HAVE THEREFORE MODESTLY                   
INCREASED POPS ACROSS THE WEST FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON. BULK OF                   
PRECIP WILL LIKELY MOVE THROUGH THE AREA TUE NIGHT.                             
SECOND SYSTEM NOT QUITE AS STRONG AS THE FIRST... BUT WILL BE A                 
LITTLE MORE BROAD AND NOT QUITE AS MUCH OF A QUICK HITTER. GFS                  
SUGGESTS PREFRONTAL TROUGH KICKING OFF CONVECTION LATE TUE                      
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... THEN SPREADING THIS                  
EAST DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.                                                
MOISTURE SHOULD BE A LITTLE BETTER THE SECOND TIME AROUND... BUT                
STILL NOT OVERLY IMPRESSED WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN                       
POTENTIAL. THE DIFFERENCE HERE IS THAT THE MODELS HAVE BEEN                     
CONSISTENT IN INDICATING THIS SECOND SYSTEM WILL DRAW UP SOME                   
SUBTROPICAL MID/UPPER-LEVEL MOISTURE FROM SOUTH OF BAJA                         
CALIFORNIA.                                                                     
SEVERE WEATHER WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE... ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE FAR               
WEST TUE AFTERNOON. SOME CONCERN THAT THE SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE TAP              
MAY RESULT IN WIDESPREAD CIRRUS SHIELD OVER THE AREA TUESDAY WHICH              
MAY LIMIT INSTABILITY TO SOME DEGREE... BUT DYNAMICS AND SHEAR                  
WILL MORE THAN MAKE UP FOR IT. CONVECTION COULD START AS                        
SUPERCELLS KICKED OFF BY THE PREFRONTAL TROUGH... MOST LIKELY                   
WEST OF OUR AREA TUE AFTERNOON... QUICKLY MERGING INTO ANOTHER                  
SQUALL LINE AS THE MAIN SHORTWAVE AND ATTENDANT SFC COLD FRONT                  
CATCHES UP. FRONTAL PASSAGE WOULD BE AFTER DARK ACROSS MUCH OF OUR              
AREA... WHICH MAY HELP LIMIT SVR POTENTIAL TO SOME DEGREE                       
DEPENDING ON THE AMOUNT OF STABILIZATION THAT CAN OCCUR. MODELS                 
SUGGEST WEAKER SFC LOW MOVING WELL TO OUR NORTHWEST... THUS SFC                 
GRADIENT WINDS WILL NOT BE QUITE AS STRONG... AND MAY THEREFORE                 
NOT KEEP BOUNDARY LAYER MIXED UP ENOUGH AFTER SUNSET.                           
LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.                                         
DRIER WX RETURNS AGAIN FOR WEDNESDAY AND INTO THE END OF THE                    
WORKWEEK... BUT TEMPERATURES WILL STILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL FOR                 
THIS TIME OF YEAR. STRONG WAVES THAT WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THIS                
WEEK ARE OF MORE OF A PACIFIC ORIGIN... SO NO COLD WX OUTBREAKS ON              
THE IMMEDIATE HORIZON.                                                          
NO CHANGES WERE MADE BEYOND DAY 5.                                              
HARDIMAN                                                                        
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
ISSUED 615 AM CDT SUN SEP 30 2007                                               
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH 00Z MON. AN INCREASING PRESSURE             
GRADIENT AHEAD OF THE DEVELOPING PLAINS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL                
RESULT IN SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS 15-20 KT SUSTAINED...WITH                
GUSTS AROUND 30 KT AFTER 18Z SUN. THE DEVELOPING PLAINS LOW WILL                
MOVE TO NORTHERN IOWA BY 00Z MONDAY...WITH A COLD FRONT TRAILING                
SOUTHWARD AND APPROACHING THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. A 20-30 MILE WIDE              
BAND OF CONVECTION IS EXPECTED WITH THE FRONT AS IT SWEEPS THROUGH              
THE CENTRAL ILLINOIS TAF SITES 04Z-08Z MON. CEILINGS SHOULD REMAIN              
VFR EXCEPT WITHIN CONVECTION...WHERE MVFR/BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS WILL             
BE LIKELY. STRATOCU WILL THEN MOVE INTO THE AREA BEHIND THE COLD                
FRONT AND LINGER BEYOND 12Z MON...WITH CEILINGS RIGHT AROUND THE 3K             
LEVEL.                                                                          
04                                                                              
&&                                                                              
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
NONE.                                                                           
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</pre> il                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL                                  
648 PM CDT SAT SEP 29 2007                                                      
.DISCUSSION...FOR AFTERNOON FORECAST                                            
223 PM CDT                                                                      
WAVE EMBEDDED IN SW FLOW OVER TOP OF MAIN UPR RIDGE SHUD CONTINUE TO            
SLIDE NE TOWARD NRN GREAT LAKES THIS EVENING WITH CI BLOWOFF HANGING            
OVER ERN HALF OF FCST AREA EARLY. MAIN FOCUS IS STILL THE MAJOR TROF            
DEEPENING IN THE ROCKIES AT THIS MOMENT. WILL LIKELY SEE SOME STARS             
OVERNIGHT IN FAIR TO PTCLDY SKIES AS WAA AC/CI BUILDS INTO THE AREA             
TONIGHT THRU SUNDAY. MOST OF THE MAJOR DEEPENING OF THIS ROCKIES                
SYSTEM WILL BE ON SUNDAY AS IT SWINGS ACROSS THE PLAINS TO THE MS               
VLY SUN EVENING. STRONG LOW LVL JET AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM BUILDS TO              
50 KTS SUNDAY EVENING...TAPPING GULF MSTR UP THE MS VLY FROM TNGT               
THRU SUNDAY NGT.                                                                
MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF AGAIN. NAM HAS SHOWN MOST IMPROVEMENT SINCE              
YDA...SLOWING TO GFS SPEED. SINCE GFS HAS SHOWN THE MOST CONSISTENCY            
AND HAS SUPPORT OF THE ECMWF...WILL TRY TO RIDE THIS OUTPUT AS LONG             
AS CONFIDENCE ABIDES. EVEN THIS HAS SLOWED FROM ITS INTENT ON                   
BRINGING RAIN CHANCES IN SUN AFTN. SO WILL KEEP CHC OF TSTMS OUT OF             
SUN AND LEAVE TO SUN NGT...BUT WITH HIER POPS SINCE LAST RUN. POST              
FNTL SHOWERS ALSO NOT OUT OF QUESTION MON MRNG AS UPR TROF AND SFC              
COLD FNT SWING THRU. CAA NOT IMPRESSIVE BUT LIKELY TO WRING OUT SOME            
POST FNTL SPRINKLES INTO THE AFTN.                                              
WITH ANOTHER UPR RIDGE SLIPPING OVER THE AREA MONDAY AND                        
TUESDAY...SHUD EXPECT TO SEE SUNNY TO PARTLY SUNNY SKIES WITH WAA               
RETURNING MON NGT AND TUESDAY. THIS WAA PRECEDING ANOTHER DEEPENING             
UPR TROF SWEEPING ACROSS THE ROCKIES MON NGT AND ACRS THE PLAINS                
TUESDAY. THIS TROF MUCH BROADER THAN THE CLOSED UPR CIRCULATION SUN             
NGT BUT FORECAST LOW LVL ADVECTION OF 50 TO 60 KT WINDS STILL QUITE             
IMPRESSIVE AT THE MOMENT. PRESENTLY...GFS ENDING PCPN THREAT                    
OVERNIGHT TUESDAY NGT. BUT CONSIDERING WAFFLING TRENDS OF MODELS AS             
OF LATE...WILL LEAVE TUES NGT WIDE OPEN FOR ANY TSTM THREAT THRU                
THAT PERIOD.                                                                    
AGAIN ONLY SLIGHT CAA BEHIND THIS SYSTEM WITH LOW AMPLITUDE RIDGING             
BUILDING OVER THE CONUS WED...BUILDING IN AMPLITUDE OVER THE EAST               
COAST THURSDAY. IN CONTRAST...ANOTHER UPR TROF BEGINS DIGGING DOWN              
INTO THE ROCKIES FRIDAY...SWINGING INTO THE PLAINS LATE SATURDAY.               
WITH AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF UPR SW FLOW WHILE THIS WESTERN TROF                  
DEEPENS...IS LIKELY THAT MID 80S ARE PROBABLE FOR FRIDAY...CAPPING              
TO LOWER 80S FOR MAXES SATURDAY WITH INCREASING CLOUD COVER.                    
RLB                                                                             
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
648 PM CDT                                                                      
FOR 00Z TAFS...FOCUS REMAINS WINDS/GUSTS NEXT 24 HOURS AS SURFACE               
PRESSURE GRADIENT CONTINUES TO TIGHTEN IN ADVANCE OF MID/SFC LOW                
PRESSURE DEVELOPING FROM PLAINS TO MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THROUGH SUNDAY            
NIGHT.                                                                          
AT 23Z...GOES WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC HEIGHT FIELD ANALYSIS                 
DEPICT MID/UPPER TROUGH OVER WESTERN CONUS WITH SERIES OF MINOR                 
AMPLITUDE MID LEVEL WAVES RIPPLING NORTHEAST FROM SOUTHERN ROCKIES              
TO UPPER MIDWEST/NORTHERN GREAT LAKES. SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATES               
ELONGATED LOW PRESSURE TROUGH FROM COLORADO ACROSS THE NORTHERN                 
PLAINS TO LAKE WINNIPEG IN LEE OF ROCKIES AND AHEAD OF LARGER SCALE             
MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. TO THE EAST...BROAD SOUTHERLY FLOW IN LOW               
LEVELS ACROSS THE MIDWEST. SURFACE WINDS HAVE BEEN FAIRLY CONSISTENT            
IN 170-190 DEGREE RANGE THROUGH THE DAY...THOUGH HAVE BACKED                    
SLIGHTLY SOUTHEAST LAST HOUR OR TWO ACROSS CHICAGO AREA TERMINALS.              
THIS APPEARS TO BE IN RESPONSE TO WEAK SURFACE REFLECTION OF MINOR              
MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE...AND EXPECT A RETURN TO 170-180 DEG SOUTH                 
WINDS NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. WITH LOSS OF MIXING AS SUNSET ALREADY               
OCCURRING...AND BROKEN HIGH LEVEL CLOUD DECK...GUSTS ALREADY FADING             
AWAY MOST OBSERVATION SITES WITH GRADIENT EXPECTED TO SUPPORT WINDS             
IN 10 KNOT RANGE OVERNIGHT. ONE NOTE...HAVE REMOVED LOW LEVEL WIND              
SHEAR FROM KRFD FORECAST...AS DESPITE 40 KNOT LOW LEVEL JET AT                  
1500-2000 FEET AGL...HIGH RESOLUTION BUFFER SOUNDINGS DO NOT SUPPORT            
SHARP 10 KT/100 FT CRITERIA NEEDED FOR TRUE NON-CONVECTIVE LOW LEVEL            
WIND SHEAR.                                                                     
ON SUNDAY...UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO DEEPEN AND CLOSE OFF AS IT                
MOVES INTO NORTHWEST IOWA BY EVENING. THIS LEADS TO DEVELOPMENT OF              
DEEPENING SURFACE LOW PRESSURE CENTER OVER IOWA...AND CONTINUED                 
TIGHTENING OF SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS FORECAST AREA.                   
FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE MIXING TO 870 HPA BY AFTERNOON WITH                 
MOMENTUM TRANSFER SUGGESTING GUSTS IN 25 TO 30 KNOT RANGE.                      
SURFACE COLD FRONT APPROACHES TERMINAL FORECAST AREA BEYOND END OF              
TAF PERIOD SUNDAY NIGHT. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN LIMITED TO                   
RELATIVELY NARROW RIBBON JUST AHEAD OF FRONT...WHICH SHOULD REMAIN              
WEST OF MISSISSIPPI RIVER THROUGH SUNSET. FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND                
TIME/HEIGHT SECTIONS MAINTAIN FAIRLY DRY LOW LEVELS THROUGH THAT                
TIME ACROSS TERMINALS...WITH ONLY PERIODS OF BROKEN HIGH CLOUDS                 
EXPECTED.                                                                       
RATZER                                                                          
&&                                                                              
.MARINE...                                                                      
230 PM CDT                                                                      
HIGH PRESSURE OF EXTENDING FROM SOUTHERN QUEBEC TO THE UPPER OHIO               
VALLEY WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY MOVE EASTWARD INTO NEW ENGLAND BY                
SUNDAY. MEANWHILE...LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTH DAKOTA WILL LIFT                    
NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD HUDSON BAY BY SUNDAY NIGHT WHILE A TRAILING                
COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.  THE RESULTING              
SOUTHERLY PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN...ALLOWING              
WINDS TO INCREASE TO 30KT ACROSS THE LAKE SATURDAY NIGHT.  WINDS                
WILL REMAIN SOUTHERLY AND NEAR GALE FORCE THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON              
WHEN THE FRONT AND A DEVELOPING SECONDARY LOW CROSS LAKE MICHIGAN.              
A NEW TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE CENTRAL            
PLAINS MONDAY NIGHT AND MOVE INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY                  
TUESDAY NIGHT.                                                                  
KREIN                                                                           
&&                                                                              
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
IL...NONE.                                                                      
IN...NONE.                                                                      
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THE ILLINOIS NEARSHORE WATERS FROM                
THIS EVENING THROUGH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT.                                         
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</pre> il                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA                                       
130 PM EDT SUN SEP 30 2007                                                      
.AVIATION...                                                                    
COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA OVERNIGHT. CLEAR SKIES THROUGH                
EARLY THIS EVENING BEFORE MID AND HIGH CLOUDS BEGIN TO INCREASE AND             
LOWER. STRONG LOW LEVEL JET DEVELOPING IN REGION OF 850MB THETA E               
AXIS SHOULD ALLOW NARROW LINE OF SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED TSRA TO                   
DEVELOP. TIMING STILL FAVORS 06-09Z AT KSBN AND 09-12Z AT KFWA. KEPT            
CB MENTION RATHER THAN PREVALING TSRA DUE TO UNCERTAINTY OF COVERAGE            
GIVEN NARROW CHANNEL OF DEEPER MOISTURE AND OVERNIGHT TIMING. UPPER             
LEVEL TROUGH AND COLD POOL TO MOVE ACROSS AREA MONDAY ALONG WITH                
EMBEDDED VORT MAX IN TROUGH. INSTABILITY SHOWERS AND MVFR CIGS                  
EXPECTED THROUGH 18Z.                                                           
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM (TODAY AND TONIGHT)...                                              
MODELS HAVE BEEN SOMEWHAT JUMPY WITH THE TIMING OF THE COLD FRONT               
LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY...3 TO 6 HOURS SLOWER TONIGHT THAN               
PREVIOUS RUN...SLOWER STILL FROM YSTDY`S RUNS. HAVE STARTED OUT                 
LEANING TOWARDS THE RUC THRU THE FIRST PERIOD...THEN BLENDED TOWARDS            
THE MORE CONSISTENT OF THE OPERATIONAL MODELS...WHICH IS THE GFS.               
SURFACE HIGH SETTLED ACROSS THE FAR NE STATES...WITH UPPER LEVEL                
RIDGE CENTERED ACROSS THE GULF STATES INTO THE GREAT LAKES THIS                 
MORNING. THE RIDGE WILL START TO SHIFT TO THE EAST THIS AFTERNOON               
WITH THE AXIS REACHING THE APP MTNS. INCREASING GRADIENT FLOW                   
AHEAD OF THE DEVELOPING SYSTEM ACROSS THE PLAINS...AND MODERATE                 
LOW LEVEL JET THAT WILL START TO MIX DOWN SOME WITH THE HEATING OF              
THE DAY. WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY THIS AFTERNOON...WITH GUSTS UP TO              
25 OR 30 MPH POSSIBLE ON THE HIGH END. FILTERED SUNSHINE AS CI                  
BLOW-OFF WILL MOVE ACROSS THE SKIES...MAY THIN SOME LATER IN THE                
AFTERNOON. VERY WARM H850 TEMPS FOR THE LAST DAY OF SEPT...AROUND               
13 OR 14C...WELL ABOVE THE NORMAL OF 8 OR 9C. THESE WARM TEMPS                  
ALOFT WILL HELP PRODUCE AFTN HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80                
AREAWIDE...NEARLY 10 TO 14 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE DATE.                   
AS THE RIDGE EXITS TO THE EAST THE VIGOROUS TROUGH WILL PUSH EAST               
FROM THE PLAINS DURING THE EVENING...TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT               
WILL CONTINUE THE MODERATE AND GUSTY WINDS. INCREASING HIGH AND                 
SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS EXPECTED AS WE APPROACH MIDNIGHT.                         
COMBINATION OF THE WINDS AND THE INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER WILL KEEP              
TEMPS UP TO ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS. LOWS WILL STRUGGLE TO DROP BELOW               
THE LOWER 60S ACROSS THE REGION. AS THE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED                   
COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE REGION AFTER 06Z...SHOWERS AND                        
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE. FORECAST SOUNDINGS STILL NOT                    
IMPRESSIVE AT ALL WITH EITHER MOISTURE CONTENT...OR                             
INSTABILITY...BUT BUFKIT IS SHOWING SOME ELEVATED CAPE. PWATS ONLY              
TOP OUT ABOUT 1.2 TO 1.3 INCHES ALONG THE BOUNDARY...WHICH IS                   
ABOUT 130 PERCENT OF NORMAL. BUT THE STRENGTH OF THE SHRTWV MAY                 
EASILY OVERCOME THESE FACTORS...AS CURRENTLY SEEN ACROSS THE                    
PLAINS TONIGHT. WITH H925 WINDS OVERNIGHT NEAR 40 KNOTS AS PER THE              
GFS...IF DECENT CONVECTION CAN BREAK OUT MIXING DOWN OF SOME                    
DECENT GUSTS MAY BE POSSIBLE...THOUGH APPROACHING SEVERE LIMITS                 
LOOKS UNLIKELY AS DECENT INVERSION/STABLE LAYER NEAR THE SURFACE                
SHOULD BE IN PLACE. PRECIP MAY BE MAINLY VIRGA AT FIRST AS IT WILL              
TAKE SOME TIME TO MOISTEN THE LOWER LEVELS OVERNIGHT...PRECIP                   
CHANCES TO OVERSPREAD THE REGION AFTER MIDNIGHT INTO DAYBREAK.                  
PRECIP TOTALS WILL BE HIGHER ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF                
THE AREA DURING THE PERIOD...WITH MUCH LIGHTER TOTALS ELSEWHERE.                
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM (MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...                                         
ENERGETIC PATTN IN STORE THIS WEEK AS WAVE TRAIN OF POTENT NRN                  
STREAM SW TROUGHS MIGRATE ACRS THE CONUS. LEAD SYS EJECTING OUT OF              
CO THIS MORNING SPURNING INTENSE CONVN ACRS SD/MN ALG NOSE OF                   
EMERGING YET TEMPERED GOMEX RTN. 00Z MODEL SOLUTIONS IN CLOSE                   
AGREEMENT TAKING INITIALLY INTENSE COLD CORE MID LVL WAVE EWD INTO              
THE WRN LAKES BY MON AFTN. DIURNAL TIMING OF COLD POCKET ALOFT AND              
RTN LL MSTR WEDGE SUGGEST THUNDER PSBL MON. OTHERWISE TEMPERED TEMPS            
FURTHER W/DEEPENING MSTR/CLDS AND INCREASING RAIN CHCS.                         
AFT THAT...SHRT AMPLITUDE RIDGING BUILDS QUICKLY TUE W/TEMPS SOARING            
WELL ABV NORMAL AHD OF SECONDARY UPSTREAM SW OFF THE PAC NW COAST               
THIS MORNING STILL SLATED TO ARRIVE TUE NIGHT. NOT PARTICULARLY SOLD            
YET ON TIMING OF THIS SYS AND WILL MAKE FEW CHGS HERE ESP GIVEN                 
INTENSE LOOK PER VAPOR AND ALL TO COMMON SHARED MODEL BIAS OF                   
PROGRESSING THESE SYSTEMS EWD TOO FAST.                                         
BEYOND THAT...ANOMALOUS SUB TROPICAL RIDGE OF LATE REBUILDS ACRS THE            
SE US IN RESPONSE TO INTENSE SW OVR THE BEARING SEA THIS MORNING.               
INTERESTINGLY BOTH THE 00Z RUNS OF THE ECMWF/GFS HANDLE THIS SYS                
SIMILARLY AS THEY BOTH DVLP A VRY INTENSE CYCLONE OVR THE MID                   
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY EARLY NXT WEEK. TEMPS LATE WEEK/NXT WEEKEND XPCD             
TO CONT WELL ABV NORMAL.                                                        
&&                                                                              
.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
IN...NONE.                                                                      
MI...NONE.                                                                      
OH...NONE.                                                                      
LM...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHORT TERM...SCHOTT                                                             
LONG TERM...HOLSTEN                                                             
AVIATION...LASHLEY                                                              
</pre> in                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA                                       
730 AM EDT SUN SEP 30 2007                                                      
.AVIATION...                                                                    
GENERALLY CONTINUED WITH PREVIOUS THINKING. LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR                
MARGINAL BUT KIWX PROFILER SHOWING 20 TO 25 KNOTS AT 2KFT AND                   
SURFACE WINDS STILL 4 TO 6 KNOTS. MIXING WITH SUNRISE SHOULD QUICKLY            
ALLOW SURFACE WINDS TO INCREASE AND BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY ENDING LOW            
LEVEL WIND SHEAR THREAT. 10 TO 20 KNOT WINDS EXPECTED TODAY. SURFACE            
COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA OVERNIGHT WITH LINE OF BROKEN                 
SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED TSRA EXPECTED...NEARING KSBN BETWEEN 06-09Z AND            
KFWA 09-12Z. HAVE ADDED AN MVFR RESTRICTION TO KSBN BUT TIMING AND              
WEAKENING NATURE TO FRONT MAKES MVFR QUESTIONABLE AT KFWA AT THIS               
TIME FRAME. STAYED MORE OPTIMISTIC THERE WITH NON RESTRICTED SHRA               
AND VFR CIG.                                                                    
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM (TODAY AND TONIGHT)...                                              
MODELS HAVE BEEN SOMEWHAT JUMPY WITH THE TIMING OF THE COLD FRONT               
LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY...3 TO 6 HOURS SLOWER TONIGHT THAN               
PREVIOUS RUN...SLOWER STILL FROM YSTDY`S RUNS. HAVE STARTED OUT                 
LEANING TOWARDS THE RUC THRU THE FIRST PERIOD...THEN BLENDED TOWARDS            
THE MORE CONSISTENT OF THE OPERATIONAL MODELS...WHICH IS THE GFS.               
SURFACE HIGH SETTLED ACROSS THE FAR NE STATES...WITH UPPER LEVEL                
RIDGE CENTERED ACROSS THE GULF STATES INTO THE GREAT LAKES THIS                 
MORNING. THE RIDGE WILL START TO SHIFT TO THE EAST THIS AFTERNOON               
WITH THE AXIS REACHING THE APP MTNS. INCREASING GRADIENT FLOW                   
AHEAD OF THE DEVELOPING SYSTEM ACROSS THE PLAINS...AND MODERATE                 
LOW LEVEL JET THAT WILL START TO MIX DOWN SOME WITH THE HEATING OF              
THE DAY. WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY THIS AFTERNOON...WITH GUSTS UP TO              
25 OR 30 MPH POSSIBLE ON THE HIGH END. FILTERED SUNSHINE AS CI                  
BLOW-OFF WILL MOVE ACROSS THE SKIES...MAY THIN SOME LATER IN THE                
AFTERNOON. VERY WARM H850 TEMPS FOR THE LAST DAY OF SEPT...AROUND               
13 OR 14C...WELL ABOVE THE NORMAL OF 8 OR 9C. THESE WARM TEMPS                  
ALOFT WILL HELP PRODUCE AFTN HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80                
AREAWIDE...NEARLY 10 TO 14 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE DATE.                   
AS THE RIDGE EXITS TO THE EAST THE VIGOROUS TROUGH WILL PUSH EAST               
FROM THE PLAINS DURING THE EVENING...TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT               
WILL CONTINUE THE MODERATE AND GUSTY WINDS. INCREASING HIGH AND                 
SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS EXPECTED AS WE APPROACH MIDNIGHT.                         
COMBINATION OF THE WINDS AND THE INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER WILL KEEP              
TEMPS UP TO ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS. LOWS WILL STRUGGLE TO DROP BELOW               
THE LOWER 60S ACROSS THE REGION. AS THE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED                   
COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE REGION AFTER 06Z...SHOWERS AND                        
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE. FORECAST SOUNDINGS STILL NOT                    
IMPRESSIVE AT ALL WITH EITHER MOISTURE CONTENT...OR                             
INSTABILITY...BUT BUFKIT IS SHOWING SOME ELEVATED CAPE. PWATS ONLY              
TOP OUT ABOUT 1.2 TO 1.3 INCHES ALONG THE BOUNDARY...WHICH IS                   
ABOUT 130 PERCENT OF NORMAL. BUT THE STRENGTH OF THE SHRTWV MAY                 
EASILY OVERCOME THESE FACTORS...AS CURRENTLY SEEN ACROSS THE                    
PLAINS TONIGHT. WITH H925 WINDS OVERNIGHT NEAR 40 KNOTS AS PER THE              
GFS...IF DECENT CONVECTION CAN BREAK OUT MIXING DOWN OF SOME                    
DECENT GUSTS MAY BE POSSIBLE...THOUGH APPROACHING SEVERE LIMITS                 
LOOKS UNLIKELY AS DECENT INVERSION/STABLE LAYER NEAR THE SURFACE                
SHOULD BE IN PLACE. PRECIP MAY BE MAINLY VIRGA AT FIRST AS IT WILL              
TAKE SOME TIME TO MOISTEN THE LOWER LEVELS OVERNIGHT...PRECIP                   
CHANCES TO OVERSPREAD THE REGION AFTER MIDNIGHT INTO DAYBREAK.                  
PRECIP TOTALS WILL BE HIGHER ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF                
THE AREA DURING THE PERIOD...WITH MUCH LIGHTER TOTALS ELSEWHERE.                
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM (MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...                                         
ENERGETIC PATTN IN STORE THIS WEEK AS WAVE TRAIN OF POTENT NRN                  
STREAM SW TROUGHS MIGRATE ACRS THE CONUS. LEAD SYS EJECTING OUT OF              
CO THIS MORNING SPURNING INTENSE CONVN ACRS SD/MN ALG NOSE OF                   
EMERGING YET TEMPERED GOMEX RTN. 00Z MODEL SOLUTIONS IN CLOSE                   
AGREEMENT TAKING INITIALLY INTENSE COLD CORE MID LVL WAVE EWD INTO              
THE WRN LAKES BY MON AFTN. DIURNAL TIMING OF COLD POCKET ALOFT AND              
RTN LL MSTR WEDGE SUGGEST THUNDER PSBL MON. OTHERWISE TEMPERED TEMPS            
FURTHER W/DEEPENING MSTR/CLDS AND INCREASING RAIN CHCS.                         
AFT THAT...SHRT AMPLITUDE RIDGING BUILDS QUICKLY TUE W/TEMPS SOARING            
WELL ABV NORMAL AHD OF SECONDARY UPSTREAM SW OFF THE PAC NW COAST               
THIS MORNING STILL SLATED TO ARRIVE TUE NIGHT. NOT PARTICULARLY SOLD            
YET ON TIMING OF THIS SYS AND WILL MAKE FEW CHGS HERE ESP GIVEN                 
INTENSE LOOK PER VAPOR AND ALL TO COMMON SHARED MODEL BIAS OF                   
PROGRESSING THESE SYSTEMS EWD TOO FAST.                                         
BEYOND THAT...ANOMALOUS SUB TROPICAL RIDGE OF LATE REBUILDS ACRS THE            
SE US IN RESPONSE TO INTENSE SW OVR THE BEARING SEA THIS MORNING.               
INTERESTINGLY BOTH THE 00Z RUNS OF THE ECMWF/GFS HANDLE THIS SYS                
SIMILARLY AS THEY BOTH DVLP A VRY INTENSE CYCLONE OVR THE MID                   
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY EARLY NXT WEEK. TEMPS LATE WEEK/NXT WEEKEND XPCD             
TO CONT WELL ABV NORMAL.                                                        
&&                                                                              
.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
IN...NONE.                                                                      
MI...NONE.                                                                      
OH...NONE.                                                                      
LM...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHORT TERM...SCHOTT                                                             
LONG TERM...HOLSTEN                                                             
AVIATION...LASHLEY                                                              
</pre> in                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA                                       
413 AM EDT SUN SEP 30 2007                                                      
.SHORT TERM (TODAY AND TONIGHT)...                                              
MODELS HAVE BEEN SOMEWHAT JUMPY WITH THE TIMING OF THE COLD FRONT LATE          
TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY...3 TO 6 HOURS SLOWER TONIGHT THAN                    
PREVIOUS RUN...SLOWER STILL FROM YSTDY`S RUNS. HAVE STARTED OUT                 
LEANING TOWARDS THE RUC THRU THE FIRST PERIOD...THEN BLENDED                    
TOWARDS THE MORE CONSISTENT OF THE OPERATIONAL MODELS...WHICH IS                
THE GFS.                                                                        
SURFACE HIGH SETTLED ACROSS THE FAR NE STATES...WITH UPPER LEVEL                
RIDGE CENTERED ACROSS THE GULF STATES INTO THE GREAT LAKES THIS                 
MORNING. THE RIDGE WILL START TO SHIFT TO THE EAST THIS AFTERNOON               
WITH THE AXIS REACHING THE APP MTNS. INCREASING GRADIENT FLOW                   
AHEAD OF THE DEVELOPING SYSTEM ACROSS THE PLAINS...AND MODERATE                 
LOW LEVEL JET THAT WILL START TO MIX DOWN SOME WITH THE HEATING OF              
THE DAY. WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY THIS AFTERNOON...WITH GUSTS UP TO              
25 OR 30 MPH POSSIBLE ON THE HIGH END. FILTERED SUNSHINE AS CI                  
BLOW-OFF WILL MOVE ACROSS THE SKIES...MAY THIN SOME LATER IN THE                
AFTERNOON. VERY WARM H850 TEMPS FOR THE LAST DAY OF SEPT...AROUND               
13 OR 14C...WELL ABOVE THE NORMAL OF 8 OR 9C. THESE WARM TEMPS                  
ALOFT WILL HELP PRODUCE AFTN HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80                
AREAWIDE...NEARLY 10 TO 14 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE DATE.                   
AS THE RIDGE EXITS TO THE EAST THE VIGOROUS TROUGH WILL PUSH EAST               
FROM THE PLAINS DURING THE EVENING...TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT               
WILL CONTINUE THE MODERATE AND GUSTY WINDS. INCREASING HIGH AND                 
SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS EXPECTED AS WE APPROACH MIDNIGHT.                         
COMBINATION OF THE WINDS AND THE INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER WILL KEEP              
TEMPS UP TO ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS. LOWS WILL STRUGGLE TO DROP BELOW               
THE LOWER 60S ACROSS THE REGION. AS THE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED                   
COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE REGION AFTER 06Z...SHOWERS AND                        
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE. FORECAST SOUNDINGS STILL NOT                    
IMPRESSIVE AT ALL WITH EITHER MOISTURE CONTENT...OR                             
INSTABILITY...BUT BUFKIT IS SHOWING SOME ELEVATED CAPE. PWATS ONLY              
TOP OUT ABOUT 1.2 TO 1.3 INCHES ALONG THE BOUNDARY...WHICH IS                   
ABOUT 130 PERCENT OF NORMAL. BUT THE STRENGTH OF THE SHRTWV MAY                 
EASILY OVERCOME THESE FACTORS...AS CURRENTLY SEEN ACROSS THE                    
PLAINS TONIGHT. WITH H925 WINDS OVERNIGHT NEAR 40 KNOTS AS PER THE              
GFS...IF DECENT CONVECTION CAN BREAK OUT MIXING DOWN OF SOME                    
DECENT GUSTS MAY BE POSSIBLE...THOUGH APPROACHING SEVERE LIMITS                 
LOOKS UNLIKELY AS DECENT INVERSION/STABLE LAYER NEAR THE SURFACE                
SHOULD BE IN PLACE. PRECIP MAY BE MAINLY VIRGA AT FIRST AS IT WILL              
TAKE SOME TIME TO MOISTEN THE LOWER LEVELS OVERNIGHT...PRECIP                   
CHANCES TO OVERSPREAD THE REGION AFTER MIDNIGHT INTO DAYBREAK.                  
PRECIP TOTALS WILL BE HIGHER ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF                
THE AREA DURING THE PERIOD...WITH MUCH LIGHTER TOTALS ELSEWHERE.                
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM (MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...                                         
ENERGETIC PATTN IN STORE THIS WEEK AS WAVE TRAIN OF POTENT NRN                  
STREAM SW TROUGHS MIGRATE ACRS THE CONUS. LEAD SYS EJECTING OUT OF              
CO THIS MORNING SPURNING INTENSE CONVN ACRS SD/MN ALG NOSE OF                   
EMERGING YET TEMPERED GOMEX RTN. 00Z MODEL SOLUTIONS IN CLOSE                   
AGREEMENT TAKING INITIALLY INTENSE COLD CORE MID LVL WAVE EWD INTO              
THE WRN LAKES BY MON AFTN. DIURNAL TIMING OF COLD POCKET ALOFT AND              
RTN LL MSTR WEDGE SUGGEST THUNDER PSBL MON. OTHERWISE TEMPERED TEMPS            
FURTHER W/DEEPENING MSTR/CLDS AND INCREASING RAIN CHCS.                         
AFT THAT...SHRT AMPLITUDE RIDGING BUILDS QUICKLY TUE W/TEMPS SOARING            
WELL ABV NORMAL AHD OF SECONDARY UPSTREAM SW OFF THE PAC NW COAST               
THIS MORNING STILL SLATED TO ARRIVE TUE NIGHT. NOT PARTICULARLY SOLD            
YET ON TIMING OF THIS SYS AND WILL MAKE FEW CHGS HERE ESP GIVEN                 
INTENSE LOOK PER VAPOR AND ALL TO COMMON SHARED MODEL BIAS OF                   
PROGRESSING THESE SYSTEMS EWD TOO FAST.                                         
BEYOND THAT...ANOMALOUS SUB TROPICAL RIDGE OF LATE REBUILDS ACRS THE            
SE US IN RESPONSE TO INTENSE SW OVR THE BEARING SEA THIS MORNING.               
INTERESTINGLY BOTH THE 00Z RUNS OF THE ECMWF/GFS HANDLE THIS SYS                
SIMILARLY AS THEY BOTH DVLP A VRY INTENSE CYCLONE OVR THE MID                   
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY EARLY NXT WEEK. TEMPS LATE WEEK/NXT WEEKEND XPCD             
TO CONT WELL ABV NORMAL.                                                        
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 129 AM EDT SUN SEP 30 2007/                         
AVIATION (06Z TAFS)...                                                          
VFR TAF PERIOD UPCOMING...REGION STILL CONTROLLED BY THE LARGE                  
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING ACROSS THE EAST. MAIN AVIATION CONCERN THROUGH              
THE PERIOD WILL BE THE BORDERLINE NON-CONVECTIVE LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR           
THIS MORNING AND THE GUSTINESS OF THE WINDS THIS LATE MORNING INTO              
THE EARLY MORNING HOURS OF MONDAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD                  
FRONT. MODERATE LOW LEVEL JET SEEN BOTH VIA LOCAL PROFILERS AND                 
MODELS...LOOKS TO PERSIST THRU THE MORNING. GUSTS IN THE RANGE OF               
20 TO 25 KTS WILL BE LIKELY FROM LATE THIS MORNING INTO THE                     
OVERNIGHT PERIOD. NO CIGS OR RESTRICTION TO VSBY EXPECTED THRU THE              
PERIOD...BUT DID MENTION VCSH AT SBN AFTER 04Z MON AS THE FRONT                 
NEARS THE AREA.                                                                 
&&                                                                              
.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
IN...NONE.                                                                      
MI...NONE.                                                                      
OH...NONE.                                                                      
LM...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHORT TERM...SCHOTT                                                             
LONG TERM...HOLSTEN                                                             
AVIATION...SCHOTT                                                               
</pre> in                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR AVIATION                                 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA                                          
1154 PM CDT FRI SEP 28 2007                                                     
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
EVE UPDATE INCLUDED MINOR ADJUSTMENTS...MAINLY TO TEMP AND PCPN                 
TRENDS.  ONGOING CONVECTION ACROSS NE APPEARS TO BE ROOTED AROUND               
800MB IN ZONE OF STRONG THETA-E ADVECTION.  LOOKING AT LATEST RUC               
CAPE/CIN LIFTING PARCELS FROM THAT LEVEL SUGGESTS INSTABILITY AND               
CIN WEAKNESS LIFTS INTO SIOUXLAND AREA TOWARD 09Z.  MEAN WIND SW-NE             
INTO THIS AREA AS WELL SO HAVE FOLLOWED LEAD OF FSD AND RAISED POPS             
INTO CHC CATEGORY IN FAR NWRN SECTIONS.  RAISED TEMPS A TAD TOO WITH            
TRENDS FAIRLY STEADY NOW.  MID/HIGH CLOUDS INCREASING AHEAD OF KS/NE            
MCSS WHILE SLA PROFILER STARTING TO SHOW WARM ADVECTION VEERING.                
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...29/06Z                                                              
ADDED VICINITY SHOWERS TO THE KFOD AFTER 9Z TERMINAL AS                         
THUNDERSTORMS OVER NORTHEAST NEBRASKA AMY HOLD TOGETHER INTO                    
WESTERN IOWA OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER OPERATIONAL IMPACT SHOULD REMAIN                
MINIMAL WITH A LOW CHANCE OF MVFR OR IFR VSBYS HAVE NOT INCLUDED IN             
TAF AT THIS TIME.                                                               
&&                                                                              
.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                        
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SMALL/RUSSELL                                                                   
</pre> ia                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE                                               
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS                                            
142 PM MDT SUN SEP 30 2007                                                      
.DISCUSSION...JUST COMPLETED UPDATE WHICH CANCELLED THE ADVISORY.               
ADJUSTED MAX TEMPERATURES A LITTLE BASED ON CURRENT OBSERVATIONS.               
ALSO ADJUSTED WINDS BASED ON LATEST OBSERVATIONS AND RUC. ALSO                  
ADJUSTED OTHER HOURLY GRIDS.                                                    
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...EXPECT NORTHWEST WINDS IN THE 20 TO 30 KNOT RANGE TO                
DECREASE BELOW 10 KNOTS BETWEEN 21Z AND 23Z. AT BOTH SITES...VFR                
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY ON MONDAY WITH LIGHT WINDS             
CONTINUING THROUGH 15Z MONDAY. AFTER 15Z MONDAY...EXPECT SOUTH WINDS            
TO INCREASE TO BETWEEN 20 AND 30 KNOTS.                                         
&&                                                                              
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
KS...NONE.                                                                      
NE...NONE.                                                                      
CO...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
BULLER                                                                          
</pre> ks                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS                                            
550 AM MDT SUN SEP 30 2007                                                      
.UPDATE...WINDS REACHING ADVISORY CRITERIA ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO              
AND SHERMAN COUNTY IN KANSAS. HAVE STARTED THE ADVISORY AT 12Z                  
INSTEAD OF 16Z AS A RESULT. THE CURRENT WIND GUSTS MAY BE FROM THE              
SUDDEN PRESSURE RISE ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT. LATEST RUC SHOWS                
THE MORE SUSTAINED WINDS STILL IN NEBRASKA. HOWEVER...THEY TOO                  
WOULD HAVE REACHED OUR AREA BEFORE THE INITIAL 16Z START TIME SO                
IT LOOKS GOOD NOW TO GET IT STARTED A BIT EARLIER.                              
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 249 AM MDT SUN SEP 30 2007/                         
.UPDATE...BASED ON MY CURRENT WIND GUST GRIDS ADVISORY CRITERIA                 
GUSTS WILL BE REACHED GENERALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN 2/3 OF THE                  
TRI-STATE AREA. SO...WILL BE ISSUING A WIND ADVISORY FOR SEVERAL                
HOURS TODAY. NO OTHER CHANGES ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.                         
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 221 AM MDT SUN SEP 30 2007/                         
.DISCUSSION...FORECAST CONCERNS ARE ON THE STRENGTH OF NORTHWEST                
WINDS TODAY/HOW COOL IT WILL BE AND CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION.                   
.SHORT TERM (TODAY-TUESDAY NIGHT)...                                            
TODAY-TONIGHT...A STRONG UPPER LOW PRESSURE CENTER CURRENTLY                    
LOCATED IN NORTH CENTRAL COLORADO WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHWEST                  
PORTION OF THE TRI-STATE AREA THIS MORNING THEN LIFT NORTHEAST AND              
BY MONDAY MORNING REACH THE GREAT LAKES.                                        
800 MB WINDS FROM THE NAM AND GFS ARE QUITE A BIT STRONGER THEN                 
WHAT WAS ADVERTISED YESTERDAY...PERHAPS THE REASON IS THE LATEST                
MODELS ARE STRONGER AND A BIT FURTHER SOUTH WITH THE UPPER LOW                  
CENTER AND ITS TRACK. LOOKS LIKE GUSTS OF 35 TO 45 MPH ARE                      
EXPECTED WITH BEST CHANCE OF ADVISORY CRITERIA WINDS ACROSS THE                 
EASTERN 1/2 OF THE AREA. WITH THE QUICK MOVEMENT OF THE STORM                   
SYSTEM WINDS LOOK TO QUICKLY WEAKEN BY LATE AFTERNOON BUT STILL                 
GUSTY.                                                                          
GIVEN THE EXPECTED FURTHER SOUTH TRACK WRAPAROUND PRECIP IS                     
POSSIBLE GENERALLY NEAR THE NEBRASKA/KANSAS BORDER THROUGH EARLY                
AFTERNOON. WITH LITTLE TO SURFACE INSTABILITY AND WEAK LAPSE                    
RATES ANY PRECIP THAT DOES DEVELOP SHOULD BE OF A SHOWERY TYPE.                 
MONDAY-MONDAY NIGHT...ANOTHER LARGE AREA OF MOISTURE WILL MOVE                  
INTO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST MONDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF ANOTHER                  
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WHICH BY 12Z TUESDAY SHOULD BE STILL WEST OF                 
THE AREA. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF THIS TROUGH WITH               
WINDY CONDITIONS EXPECTED. WILL GO WITH A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS               
MONDAY NIGHT PER SURROUNDING OFFICES AND GUIDANCE QPF/POPS.                     
TUESDAY-TUESDAY NIGHT...UPPER TROUGH MOVES THROUGH BRINGING                     
ANOTHER COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA. DRIER AIR QUICKLY FOLLOWS BY               
LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING LEADING TO A CLEAR NIGHT. WILL KEEP                
SOME LOW POPS EAST OF THE CO/KS BORDER TUESDAY MORNING                          
.LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY-SATURDAY)...                                              
NO CHANGES MADE AT THIS TIME.                                                   
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
MVFR/IFR CLOUDS EXPECTED IN THE KGLD AND KMCK AREAS AROUND 14Z                  
BEHIND A COLD FRONT WHOS WINDS WILL GUST INTO THE 40-45 KT RANGE                
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. BETWEEN 18Z AND 21Z CLOUD HEIGHTS WILL RISE              
INTO THE MVFR RANGE AS THE STORM SYSTEM CONTINUES NORTHEAST. WINDS              
HOWEVER WILL REMAIN RATHER HIGH. BETWEEN 21Z-00Z EXPECT A RAPID                 
CLEARING WITH LITTLE IF ANY CLOUDS BY 00Z. WINDS WILL SLOWLY                    
SUBSIDE AND BY 00Z BE NEAR CALM BEFORE RETURNING FROM THE SOUTH                 
AFTER 06Z.                                                                      
SHOWERY PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE AFTER 14Z...ENDING BY 21Z.                    
&&                                                                              
&&                                                                              
&&                                                                              
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
KS...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM MDT /5 PM CDT/ THIS AFTERNOON FOR                 
     KSZ001>004-013>016-028-029.                                                
NE...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM MDT /5 PM CDT/ THIS AFTERNOON FOR                 
     NEZ079>081.                                                                
CO...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM MDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR COZ090-091.                
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
DDT/DDT                                                                         
</pre> ks                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA                                        
947 AM CDT SAT SEP 29 2007                                                      
UPDATE...STATIONARY BOUNDARY INTO THE GULF EAST OF CORPUS CHRISTI.              
LATEST RUC GUIDANCE AND LOWER START ON MORNING TEMPS POINT TO MAX               
TEMPS CLOSER TO 89 DEGREES ACROSS THE BOARD TODAY. ZONES ONLY NEED              
A TWEAK FOR SW AND S CEN LA TEMPS NEAR 90.                                      
&&                                                                              
.MARINE...CURRENT BUOY REPORTS AND RUC POINT TO WEAK COLD                       
ADVECTION OCCURING IN MODERATE EASTERLY WINDS AND SEAS A BIT HIGHER.            
WILL UPDATE COASTALS AND INCLUDE CAUTION FOR OUTER WATERS THRU TNITE.           
WILL ALSO TWEAK POPS UP TO 30 PERCENT FOR OUTER WESTERN WATERS DUE              
TO CLOSE PROXIMITY WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ASSOCIATED                  
WITH THE STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY BEYOND THE OUTER WATERS.                      
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 323 AM CDT SAT SEP 29 2007/                         
DISCUSSION...                                                                   
OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS LOCATED OFFSHORE IN THE COASTAL WATERS.                 
THIS HAS RESULTED IN LOWER DEWPOINTS...WITH READINGS IN THE LOW                 
60S...AND LIGHT NORTHEAST WINDS OVER THE FORECAST AREA. RIDGING IN              
THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS HAS ALSO BROUGHT IN DRIER AIR AT THOSE                 
LEVELS WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER ON THE 29/00Z KLCH SOUNDING BELOW                
CLIMO NORMS AT A VALUE OF 1.10 INCHES.                                          
BEST MOISTURE TODAY SHOULD STAY SOUTH OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND               
OVER THE COASTAL WATERS AND ALONG THE MID AND LOWER TEXAS COAST.                
THERE MAY BE A STRAY SHOWER OVER THE COASTAL WATERS...OTHERWISE                 
THE BULK OF THE RAIN CHANCES WILL BE SOUTHWEST OF THE LAKE CHARLES              
FORECAST AREA.                                                                  
FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL EVENTUALLY DISSIPATE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF                
DAYS. HOWEVER...RIDGING IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS LOOK TO HOLD                
KEEPING THE MENTION OF RAIN OUT OF THE FORECAST THROUGH THE MIDDLE              
PART OF NEXT WEEK.                                                              
BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK...AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED                
TO MOVE WESTWARD FROM THE NORTHEAST GULF INTO THE CENTRAL GULF                  
COAST. THIS MAY BRING SOME BETTER MOISTURE VALUES AND A SLIGHT                  
CHANCE OF SHOWERS BY FRIDAY.                                                    
AVIATION...                                                                     
SO FAR TONIGHT NO VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS FROM PATCHY FOG ARE                   
BEING REPORTED AT TAF SITES...AS DRIER AIR AND LIGHT NORTHEAST                  
WINDS KEEPING DEWPOINT DEPRESSION GREATER THAN 5F. THERE IS STILL               
AN OUTSIDE CHANCE OF SOME PATCHY FOG NEAR SUNRISE AS WINDS WILL BE              
AT ITS LIGHTEST AND TEMPERATURES WILL DROP A COUPLE OF DEGREES BY THEN.         
OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE DAY.                        
MARINE...                                                                       
A COOL FRONT ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS WILL REMAIN NEARLY                       
STATIONARY AND DISSIPATE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. MODERATE EASTERLY              
WINDS ALONG THE FRONT ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST. TIDES ALONG THE                  
COAST ARE RUNNING BETWEEN 1/2 AND 1 FOOT ABOVE PREDICTED VALUES                 
DURING TIMES OF HIGH TIDE. THIS IS ALSO EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER               
THE NEXT FEW DAYS.                                                              
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
KLCH  89  71  90  70 /   0   0  10   0                                          
KBPT  89  71  90  71 /   5   0  10   0                                          
KAEX  89  65  90  66 /   0   0  10   0                                          
KLFT  89  70  90  70 /   0   0  10   0                                          
&&                                                                              
.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
LA...NONE.                                                                      
TX...NONE.                                                                      
GM...CAUTION FOR COASTAL WATERS BEYOND 20 NM THRU TNITE.                        
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
JS                                                                              
</pre> la                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
1030 PM EDT SUN SEP 30 2007                                                     
.UPDATE...                                                                      
RADAR SHOWED A LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS                
FROM SW TO N CNTRL WI AND INTO CNTRL UPPER MI. THE PCPN CLOSER TO               
UPPER MI WAS SUPPORTED BY STRONG 600-500 FGEN AHEAD OF THE CLOSED               
500 MB LOW OVER IA AND UPPER LEVEL DIV WITH THE RIGHT ENTRANCE OF A             
110-120 KT 250 MB JET N OF LAKE SUPERIOR. SATELLITE/RADAR TRENDS AND            
THE 00Z NAM AND RUC SUGGEST THAT THE PCPN OVER NRN WI WILL CONTINUE             
TO SPREAD MORE NNE IN RESPONSE TO THE UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS COMPARED             
TO THE EARLIER BATCH OF PCPN INTO CNTRL UPPER MI THAT WAS MOVING                
MORE TO THE ENE. SO...HIGHEST POPS/COVERAGE WILL CONTINUE OVER CNTRL            
AND SE UPPER MI WITH ONLY SCT/CHANCE POPS OVER THE WEST. OVERALL                
RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE EXCESSIVE...PER UPSTREAM                
REPORTS OVER WI...WITH GENERALLY 0.25-0.50 INCH AMOUNTS AND ONLY LCL            
AMOUNTS AOA 1.00 INCH.                                                          
 GRIDS AND                                                                      
ZFP WERE ADJUSTED ACCORDINGLY.                                                  
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC/NAM SHOWING A CLOSED LOW                            
OVER EASTERN NEBRASKA MOVING EAST INTO A RIDGE OVER WESTERN QUEBEC.             
A LONGWAVE TROUGH IS JUST OFF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. OTHER WEAK                 
SHORTWAVES ARE OVER NORTHERN MINNESOTA...OVER SOUTHEAST                         
MANITOBA...OVER AND CENTRAL ONTARIO. SURFACE ANALYSIS DEPICTS A                 
LARGE OVER NEW ENGLAND WITH ACCOMPANYING RIDGE BLANKETING THE EAST              
COAST AND THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES. A FRONTAL SYSTEM EXTENDS FROM A              
LOW OVER NORTHWEST ONTARIO SOUTHWEST THROUGH NORTHEAST MINNESOTA TO             
A LOW OVER KOMA AREA. AN UPPER LEVEL 100+ KNOT JET MAX IS OVER THE              
NORTHWEST SHORE OF LAKE SUPERIOR...FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER OVER                     
NORTHWEST MISSOURI. THESE ARE DRAWING DEEP MOISTURE FROM THE GULF               
INTO THE NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY AND WESTERN END OF THE               
FORECAST AREA. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE OCCURRING OVER WESTERN             
PART OF THE CWA AND OVER CENTRAL ONTARIO IN THE AREA OF HIGHEST                 
MOISTURE AND UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE                
FIRING ALONG AN 850MB THETA-E RIDGE AXIS AND BENEATH THE UPPER LEVEL            
DIVERGENCE ZONE OVER THE WESTERN U.P. AND NORTHERN WISCONSIN.                   
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT AND MON)...                                                
MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS WITH THIS FORECAST IS THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS              
AND THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT AND MONDAY.                                           
UPPER RIDGING WILL REBUILD ACROSS THE PLAINS AS THE EAST PACIFIC NW             
TROUGH MOVES INTO WASHINGTON AND OREGON STATE. THIS REBUILDING OF               
THE UPPER RIDGE WILL FORCE THE UPPER LOW NEAR OMAHA TO LIFT                     
NORTHEAST AS IT RUNS INTO THE RIDGE TO ITS EAST. BY SUNRISE                     
MONDAY...THE LOW SHOULD BE LOCATED NEAR GREEN BAY. DEEP MOISTURE                
FEEDING INTO THE FORECAST ALONG WITH THE UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE AND             
SHORTWAVE ENERGY SUPPORTS KEEPING CATEGORICAL POPS OVER THE WEST                
HALF OF THE CWA. FOR THE EASTERN CWA...HAVE ONLY WENT WITH                      
LIKELY VALUES AS HEIGHT FALLS ARE LATEST TO HIT THERE. HIGH                     
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES...AROUND 1.5 INCHES COULD SUPPORT SOME                
HEAVY RAINFALL AMOUNTS. GIVEN PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER AND HIGH                    
DEWPOINTS SUGGESTS A WARM NIGHT...PROBABLY NOT TOO FAR FROM AVERAGE             
HIGH TEMPERATURES.                                                              
THE RIDGE AXIS OVER THE PLAINS WILL SHIFT INTO WESTERN WISCONSIN ON             
MONDAY AS THE WESTERN TROUGH CONTINUES TO MOVE EASTWARD. THIS WILL              
CAUSE THE UPPER LOW TO SHIFT TO LAKE HURON. DNVA ASSOCIATED WITH THE            
RIDGE AXIS SHOULD ALLOW SHOWERS TO END BY 18Z OVER THE WEST HALF OF             
THE CWA AND OVER MUCH OF THE EAST HALF OF THE CWA BY 00Z. AS DRY AIR            
MOVES WILL LOWER POPS OVER THE FAR WESTERN U.P. IN THE MORNING AND              
WILL MAINTAIN THE IDEA OF LIKELY POPS OVER THE EASTERN CWA WITH                 
CHANCE POPS ELSEWHERE. ALTHOUGH THE SHOWERS END...DRYING ALOFT                  
ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER RIDGE APPEARS TO SET UP A SUBSIDENCE                  
INVERSION. GIVEN THE TIME OF YEAR AND PLENTY OF MOISTURE FROM THE               
RAIN TONIGHT SUGGESTS THE POSSIBILITY OF A LOW STRATUS DECK GETTING             
STUCK OVER MUCH OF THE U.P.. WINDS TURNING NORTH ON THE BACK SIDE OF            
A SURFACE LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW COULD ALSO RESULT IN                
SOME MIST AND OR DRIZZLE OVER UPSLOPE AREAS. GIVEN ALL THE CLOUD                
COVER...TEMPERATURES WILL NOT RISE MUCH.                                        
.LONG TERM (MON NIGHT THROUGH NEXT SUN)...                                      
AMPLIFIED UPR LEVEL PATTERN BECOMES MORE ZONAL BY MID WEEK THEN THE             
AMPLITUDE INCREASES SUBSTANTIALLY AGAIN BY LATE WEEK. IN GENERAL THE            
UPR LEVEL FLOW INTO UPR LAKES IS FM WEST/SOUTHWEST...SO ABOVE NORMAL            
TEMPS CONTINUE UNTIL NEXT WEEKEND. SHORTWAVE RIDGING DEVELOPING IN              
WAKE OF MON SYSTEM QUICKLY GIVES WAY TO THE KICKER SHORTWAVE TROUGH             
CURRENTLY DIVING TOWARD CA COAST. THIS TROUGH EMERGES ACROSS THE                
ROCKIES ON MON AND PUSHES INTO THE PLAINS MON NIGHT. STRONG SW FLOW             
AHEAD OF THE TROUGH WILL BE ENHANCED AS UPR JET OVR NORTHERN ROCKIES            
COMBINES WITH PIECE OF SUBTROPICAL JET ENERGY LIFTING OUT OF DESERT             
SW. THE STRONG JETS JUST AHEAD OF TROUGH SHOULD ALSO SERVE TO KEEP              
TROUGH POSITIVELY TILTED AND MOVING QUICKLY THROUGH THE REGION. AS              
IS THE CASE WITH THE SYSTEM AFFECTING THE AREA ATTM...THIS SYSTEM               
WILL ALSO BRING A STRONG SURGE OF ABOVE NORMAL MOISTURE INTO THE                
UPR LAKES THANKS TO INCREASING H85 WINDS. AXIS OF H85 DEWPOINTS TO              
+12C NOSES INTO SW CWA TUE MORNING THEN QUICKLY OVERTAKES REST OF               
CWA BY TUE EVENING. COMBINATION OF HEIGHT FALLS AND PERIOD OF UPPER             
LEVEL DIVERGENCE SHOULD LEAD TO PERIOD OF MODERATE RAIN SPREADING               
FM WEST TO EAST ACROSS CWA.                                                     
K INDEX VALUES ABOVE 30 AND PWATS ABOVE 1.5 INCHES ALSO LEAD TO                 
POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY DOWNPOURS IN THE STRONGEST CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS.             
CORFIDI VECTORS INDICATE THAT MOST ACTIVITY WILL KEEP TRUCKING TO               
THE NE SO UNLESS CELLS BEGIN TO TRAIN DO NOT FORSEE A FLOODING                  
THREAT. MODELS CONTINUE TO TREND QUICKER WITH EXIT OF THE TROUGH AND            
ANY PCPN. TRIMMED BACK POPS OVERNIGHT TUE NIGHT.                                
AFTER THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH EXITS THE REGION ON WED...A BROAD TROUGH             
DEVELOPS OFFSHORE THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THIS LEADS TO STRONG 250MB             
JET ENERGY STREAMING ACROSS NORTHERN PARTS OF THE ROCKIES INTO THE              
NORTH CENTRAL CONUS AND TO EASTERN CANADA. THIS WILL KEEP THE                   
PRIMARY SFC FRONT ALONG THE US/CANADIAN BORDER AND SHOULD KEEP PCPN             
OUT OF THE AREA UNTIL FRI. TROUGH SHIFTS INTO THE CONUS BY SAT AND              
THIS SHOULD GRADUALLY PUSH THE FRONT TOWARD UPR LAKES. INCREASING               
MOISTURE AND STRONG LOW LEVEL WINDS LEAD TO INCREASED CHANCES OF                
PCPN FRI INTO SAT. MAIN FRONT SLIDES THROUGH REGION LATE SAT SO PCPN            
CHANCES SHOULD WANE INTO SUN. MUCH COOLER TEMPS SUN/MON IN WAKE OF              
THE FRONT.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION (FOR THE 00Z TAF ISSUANCE)...                                         
SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE WEST HALF OF UPPER MICHIGAN THIS                
EVENING CONTINUING OVERNIGHT OVER CENTRAL UPPER MICHIGAN AS A LOW               
PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER WESTERN IOWA MOVES INTO SOUTHERN WISCONSIN.                
STEADIER RAINFALL WILL EVENTUALLY LOWER CIGS/VSBYS INTO THE MVFR                
RANGE THIS EVENING AND TO IFR CONDITIONS LATE TONIGHT INTO MON                  
MORNING. ALTHOUGH THE RAIN WILL END CIGS WILL ONLY GRADUALLY IMPROVE            
MONDAY AS SFC-850 MB MOISTURE REMAINS IN PLACE FOR MOST OF THE DAY.             
THE LOWEST CIGS ARE EXPECTED AT KSAW WITH NE WINDS PROVIDING MORE               
DIRECT UPSLOPE FLOW.                                                            
&&                                                                              
.MARINE (FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FCST ISSUANCE)...                           
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH LAKE SUPERIOR TONIGHT. WINDS BEHIND              
THE FRONT WILL VEER WEST AND NORTHWEST. WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 15 TO            
25 KTS OVER THE EAST HALF OF THE LAKE AHEAD OF THE FRONT WHICH IS               
FAVORED FOR STRONGER WINDS IN SOUTHERLY FLOW REGIMES. THE AREA                  
AROUND GRAND MARAIS AT THE EAST END OF PICTURED ROCKS NATIONAL                  
LAKESHORE IS ONE LOCATION THAT WILL SEE THE HIGHEST WINDS. WINDS                
WILL DIMINISH TONIGHT AND ESPECIALLY ON MONDAY AS WEAKENING LOW PRES            
MOVES TO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION. THERE WILL BE SOME FOG                   
DEVELOPMENT OVER MAIN THE EAST END TONIGHT AS THE WINDS DIMINISH.               
NEXT ACTIVE LOW PRES TROUGH WILL RACE EAST AND CROSS LAKE SUPERIOR              
TUESDAY NIGHT. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL AGAIN WRAP UP IN ADVANCE OF THIS            
TROUGH.                                                                         
&&                                                                              
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE                                         
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHORT TERM...DLG                                                                
LONG TERM...JLA                                                                 
AVIATION/MARINE...DLG                                                           
</pre> mi                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
745 PM EDT SUN SEP 30 2007                                                      
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC/NAM SHOWING A CLOSED LOW                            
OVER EASTERN NEBRASKA MOVING EAST INTO A RIDGE OVER WESTERN QUEBEC.             
A LONGWAVE TROUGH IS JUST OFF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. OTHER WEAK                 
SHORTWAVES ARE OVER NORTHERN MINNESOTA...OVER SOUTHEAST                         
MANITOBA...OVER AND CENTRAL ONTARIO. SURFACE ANALYSIS DEPICTS A                 
LARGE OVER NEW ENGLAND WITH ACCOMPANYING RIDGE BLANKETING THE EAST              
COAST AND THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES. A FRONTAL SYSTEM EXTENDS FROM A              
LOW OVER NORTHWEST ONTARIO SOUTHWEST THROUGH NORTHEAST MINNESOTA TO             
A LOW OVER KOMA AREA. AN UPPER LEVEL 100+ KNOT JET MAX IS OVER THE              
NORTHWEST SHORE OF LAKE SUPERIOR...FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER OVER                     
NORTHWEST MISSOURI. THESE ARE DRAWING DEEP MOISTURE FROM THE GULF               
INTO THE NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY AND WESTERN END OF THE               
FORECAST AREA. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE OCCURRING OVER WESTERN             
PART OF THE CWA AND OVER CENTRAL ONTARIO IN THE AREA OF HIGHEST                 
MOISTURE AND UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE                
FIRING ALONG AN 850MB THETA-E RIDGE AXIS AND BENEATH THE UPPER LEVEL            
DIVERGENCE ZONE OVER THE WESTERN U.P. AND NORTHERN WISCONSIN.                   
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT AND MON)...                                                
MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS WITH THIS FORECAST IS THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS              
AND THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT AND MONDAY.                                           
UPPER RIDGING WILL REBUILD ACROSS THE PLAINS AS THE EAST PACIFIC NW             
TROUGH MOVES INTO WASHINGTON AND OREGON STATE. THIS REBUILDING OF               
THE UPPER RIDGE WILL FORCE THE UPPER LOW NEAR OMAHA TO LIFT                     
NORTHEAST AS IT RUNS INTO THE RIDGE TO ITS EAST. BY SUNRISE                     
MONDAY...THE LOW SHOULD BE LOCATED NEAR GREEN BAY. DEEP MOISTURE                
FEEDING INTO THE FORECAST ALONG WITH THE UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE AND             
SHORTWAVE ENERGY SUPPORTS KEEPING CATEGORICAL POPS OVER THE WEST                
HALF OF THE CWA. FOR THE EASTERN CWA...HAVE ONLY WENT WITH                      
LIKELY VALUES AS HEIGHT FALLS ARE LATEST TO HIT THERE. HIGH                     
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES...AROUND 1.5 INCHES COULD SUPPORT SOME                
HEAVY RAINFALL AMOUNTS. GIVEN PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER AND HIGH                    
DEWPOINTS SUGGESTS A WARM NIGHT...PROBABLY NOT TOO FAR FROM AVERAGE             
HIGH TEMPERATURES.                                                              
THE RIDGE AXIS OVER THE PLAINS WILL SHIFT INTO WESTERN WISCONSIN ON             
MONDAY AS THE WESTERN TROUGH CONTINUES TO MOVE EASTWARD. THIS WILL              
CAUSE THE UPPER LOW TO SHIFT TO LAKE HURON. DNVA ASSOCIATED WITH THE            
RIDGE AXIS SHOULD ALLOW SHOWERS TO END BY 18Z OVER THE WEST HALF OF             
THE CWA AND OVER MUCH OF THE EAST HALF OF THE CWA BY 00Z. AS DRY AIR            
MOVES WILL LOWER POPS OVER THE FAR WESTERN U.P. IN THE MORNING AND              
WILL MAINTAIN THE IDEA OF LIKELY POPS OVER THE EASTERN CWA WITH                 
CHANCE POPS ELSEWHERE. ALTHOUGH THE SHOWERS END...DRYING ALOFT                  
ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER RIDGE APPEARS TO SET UP A SUBSIDENCE                  
INVERSION. GIVEN THE TIME OF YEAR AND PLENTY OF MOISTURE FROM THE               
RAIN TONIGHT SUGGESTS THE POSSIBILITY OF A LOW STRATUS DECK GETTING             
STUCK OVER MUCH OF THE U.P.. WINDS TURNING NORTH ON THE BACK SIDE OF            
A SURFACE LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW COULD ALSO RESULT IN                
SOME MIST AND OR DRIZZLE OVER UPSLOPE AREAS. GIVEN ALL THE CLOUD                
COVER...TEMPERATURES WILL NOT RISE MUCH.                                        
.LONG TERM (MON NIGHT THROUGH NEXT SUN)...                                      
AMPLIFIED UPR LEVEL PATTERN BECOMES MORE ZONAL BY MID WEEK THEN THE             
AMPLITUDE INCREASES SUBSTANTIALLY AGAIN BY LATE WEEK. IN GENERAL THE            
UPR LEVEL FLOW INTO UPR LAKES IS FM WEST/SOUTHWEST...SO ABOVE NORMAL            
TEMPS CONTINUE UNTIL NEXT WEEKEND. SHORTWAVE RIDGING DEVELOPING IN              
WAKE OF MON SYSTEM QUICKLY GIVES WAY TO THE KICKER SHORTWAVE TROUGH             
CURRENTLY DIVING TOWARD CA COAST. THIS TROUGH EMERGES ACROSS THE                
ROCKIES ON MON AND PUSHES INTO THE PLAINS MON NIGHT. STRONG SW FLOW             
AHEAD OF THE TROUGH WILL BE ENHANCED AS UPR JET OVR NORTHERN ROCKIES            
COMBINES WITH PIECE OF SUBTROPICAL JET ENERGY LIFTING OUT OF DESERT             
SW. THE STRONG JETS JUST AHEAD OF TROUGH SHOULD ALSO SERVE TO KEEP              
TROUGH POSITIVELY TILTED AND MOVING QUICKLY THROUGH THE REGION. AS              
IS THE CASE WITH THE SYSTEM AFFECTING THE AREA ATTM...THIS SYSTEM               
WILL ALSO BRING A STRONG SURGE OF ABOVE NORMAL MOISTURE INTO THE                
UPR LAKES THANKS TO INCREASING H85 WINDS. AXIS OF H85 DEWPOINTS TO              
+12C NOSES INTO SW CWA TUE MORNING THEN QUICKLY OVERTAKES REST OF               
CWA BY TUE EVENING. COMBINATION OF HEIGHT FALLS AND PERIOD OF UPPER             
LEVEL DIVERGENCE SHOULD LEAD TO PERIOD OF MODERATE RAIN SPREADING               
FM WEST TO EAST ACROSS CWA.                                                     
K INDEX VALUES ABOVE 30 AND PWATS ABOVE 1.5 INCHES ALSO LEAD TO                 
POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY DOWNPOURS IN THE STRONGEST CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS.             
CORFIDI VECTORS INDICATE THAT MOST ACTIVITY WILL KEEP TRUCKING TO               
THE NE SO UNLESS CELLS BEGIN TO TRAIN DO NOT FORSEE A FLOODING                  
THREAT. MODELS CONTINUE TO TREND QUICKER WITH EXIT OF THE TROUGH AND            
ANY PCPN. TRIMMED BACK POPS OVERNIGHT TUE NIGHT.                                
AFTER THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH EXITS THE REGION ON WED...A BROAD TROUGH             
DEVELOPS OFFSHORE THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THIS LEADS TO STRONG 250MB             
JET ENERGY STREAMING ACROSS NORTHERN PARTS OF THE ROCKIES INTO THE              
NORTH CENTRAL CONUS AND TO EASTERN CANADA. THIS WILL KEEP THE                   
PRIMARY SFC FRONT ALONG THE US/CANADIAN BORDER AND SHOULD KEEP PCPN             
OUT OF THE AREA UNTIL FRI. TROUGH SHIFTS INTO THE CONUS BY SAT AND              
THIS SHOULD GRADUALLY PUSH THE FRONT TOWARD UPR LAKES. INCREASING               
MOISTURE AND STRONG LOW LEVEL WINDS LEAD TO INCREASED CHANCES OF                
PCPN FRI INTO SAT. MAIN FRONT SLIDES THROUGH REGION LATE SAT SO PCPN            
CHANCES SHOULD WANE INTO SUN. MUCH COOLER TEMPS SUN/MON IN WAKE OF              
THE FRONT.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION (FOR THE 00Z TAF ISSUANCE)...                                         
SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE WEST HALF OF UPPER MICHIGAN THIS                
EVENING CONTINUING OVERNIGHT OVER CENTRAL UPPER MICHIGAN AS A LOW               
PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER WESTERN IOWA MOVES INTO SOUTHERN WISCONSIN.                
STEADIER RAINFALL WILL EVENTUALLY LOWER CIGS/VSBYS INTO THE MVFR                
RANGE THIS EVENING AND TO IFR CONDITIONS LATE TONIGHT INTO MON                  
MORNING. ALTHOUGH THE RAIN WILL END CIGS WILL ONLY GRADUALLY IMPROVE            
MONDAY AS SFC-850 MB MOISTURE REMAINS IN PLACE FOR MOST OF THE DAY.             
THE LOWEST CIGS ARE EXPECTED AT KSAW WITH NE WINDS PROVIDING MORE               
DIRECT UPSLOPE FLOW.                                                            
&&                                                                              
.MARINE (FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FCST ISSUANCE)...                           
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH LAKE SUPERIOR TONIGHT. WINDS BEHIND              
THE FRONT WILL VEER WEST AND NORTHWEST. WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 15 TO            
25 KTS OVER THE EAST HALF OF THE LAKE AHEAD OF THE FRONT WHICH IS               
FAVORED FOR STRONGER WINDS IN SOUTHERLY FLOW REGIMES. THE AREA                  
AROUND GRAND MARAIS AT THE EAST END OF PICTURED ROCKS NATIONAL                  
LAKESHORE IS ONE LOCATION THAT WILL SEE THE HIGHEST WINDS. WINDS                
WILL DIMINISH TONIGHT AND ESPECIALLY ON MONDAY AS WEAKENING LOW PRES            
MOVES TO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION. THERE WILL BE SOME FOG                   
DEVELOPMENT OVER MAIN THE EAST END TONIGHT AS THE WINDS DIMINISH.               
NEXT ACTIVE LOW PRES TROUGH WILL RACE EAST AND CROSS LAKE SUPERIOR              
TUESDAY NIGHT. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL AGAIN WRAP UP IN ADVANCE OF THIS            
TROUGH.                                                                         
&&                                                                              
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE                                         
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHORT TERM...DLG                                                                
LONG TERM...JLA                                                                 
AVIATION/MARINE...DLG                                                           
</pre> mi                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
133 PM EDT SUN SEP 30 2007                                                      
...UPDATED FOR AVIATION...                                                      
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
MANY FORECAST CONCERNS WITH THIS FORECAST UPDATE IS THE CHANCE OF               
PRECIPITATION THIS AFTERNOON.                                                   
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC/NAM SHOWING A DEEP LOW OVER WESTERN                 
KANSAS MOVING NORTHEAST INTO THE RIDGE OVER WESTERN QUEBEC. A                   
LONGWAVE TROUGH IS JUST OFF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. OTHER WEAK                   
SHORTWAVES ARE OVER NORTHERN MINNESOTA AND OVER MANITOBA. A PAIR OF             
LARGE HIGH BLANKETS MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY               
AND OVER NEW ENGLAND. A FRONTAL SYSTEM EXTENDS FROM A LOW OVER                  
NORTHWEST ONTARIO SOUTHWEST THROUGH NORTHWEST MINNESOTA TO A LOW                
OVER NORTHEAST NEBRASKA. AN UPPER LEVEL 100+ KNOT JET MAX IS OVER               
CENTRAL ONTARIO...FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER OVER CENTRAL KANSAS. THIS IS              
DRAWING DEEP MOISTURE FROM THE GULF INTO THE NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI               
RIVER VALLEY AND WESTERN END OF THE FORECAST AREA. SHOWERS AND                  
THUNDERSTORMS ARE OCCURRING OVER WESTERN PART OF THE CWA AND OVER               
CENTRAL ONTARIO IN THE AREA OF HIGHEST MOISTURE AND UPPER LEVEL                 
DIVERGENCE.                                                                     
THE KANSAS LOW WILL MOVE INTO EASTERN NEBRASKA BY LATE AFTERNOON.               
THE RIDGE OVER WESTERN QUEBEC WILL CONTINUE. A WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL              
PUSH ACROSS THE WESTERN U.P. DEEP MOISTURE CONTINUES TO REMAIN OVER             
ONTARIO...MINNESOTA...NORTHWEST WISCONSIN...AND WEST END OF CWA.                
KMQT 88D AND SURFACE REPORTS INDICATE THAT MOST OF THE RAIN IS                  
COMING FROM HIGH BASED CLOUDS. THUS PLAN TO KEEP RAIN IN THE                    
FORECAST FOR THE AFTERNOON OVER THE WEST AND MOSTLY CLOUDY OVER THE             
CENTRAL PART WITH MAINLY AC. WINDS WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE SOUTH.                
SOME OF THE LOW LEVEL JET WILL MIX TO THE SURFACE AS GUSTY                      
CONDITIONS AS INDICATED BY SEVERAL STATIONS ALONG THE LAKE SHORE.               
PLAN TO UPDATE THE FORECAST TO TWEAK THE WORDING.                               
EXTENDED...                                                                     
TONIGHT...UPPER RIDGING WILL REBUILD ACROSS THE PLAINS AS THE EAST              
PACIFIC NW TROUGH MOVES INTO WASHINGTON AND OREGON STATE. THIS                  
REBUILDING OF THE UPPER RIDGE WILL FORCE THE UPPER LOW NEAR OMAHA TO            
LIFT NE AS IT RUNS INTO THE RIDGE TO ITS EAST. BY 12Z MON...THE LOW             
SHOULD BE LOCATED NEAR APPLETON WI. MORE IMPRESSIVE HEIGHT FALLS                
COMPARED TO TODAY...ALONG WITH SOME MID-LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS OVER THE            
WESTERN U.P...SHOULD SUPPORT AN EXPANSION AND INTENSIFICATION OF                
PCPN OVER THE CWA. WILL RAISE POPS TO CATEGORICAL OVER THE WEST HALF            
OF THE CWA GIVEN CONSISTENT MODEL AGREEMENT FOR PCPN THERE. FOR THE             
EASTERN CWA...HAVE ONLY WENT WITH LIKELY VALUES AS HEIGHT FALLS ARE             
LATEST TO HIT THERE. HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES...AROUND 1.5                
INCHES OR 250 PERCENT OF NORMAL...COULD SUPPORT SOME HEAVY RAINFALL             
AMOUNTS. THE NAM INDICATES THIS WITH 3.1 INCHES AT IWD BETWEEN                  
00-12Z. GIVEN PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER AND HIGH DEWPOINTS SUGGESTS A               
WARM NIGHT...PROBABLY NOT TOO FAR FROM AVERAGE HIGH TEMPERATURES.               
MON...RIDGE AXIS OVER THE PLAINS WILL SHIFT INTO WESTERN WI BY 00Z              
AS THE WESTERN TROUGH CONTINUES TO PLOW EASTWARD. THIS WILL CAUSE               
THE UPPER LOW TO SHIFT TO NEAR LAKE HURON. DNVA ASSOCIATED WITH THE             
RIDGE AXIS SHOULD ALLOW SHOWERS TO END BY 18Z OVER THE WEST HALF OF             
THE CWA AND OVER MUCH OF THE EAST HALF OF THE CWA BY 00Z. WILL                  
MAINTAIN THE IDEA OF LIKELY POPS OVER THE EASTERN CWA IN THE MORNING            
WITH CHANCE POPS ELSEWHERE. ALTHOUGH THE SHOWERS END...DRYING ALOFT             
ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER RIDGE APPEARS TO SET UP A SUBSIDENCE                  
INVERSION. GIVEN THE TIME OF YEAR AND PLENTY OF MOISTURE FROM THE               
RAIN TONIGHT SUGGESTS THE POSSIBILITY OF A LOW STRATUS DECK GETTING             
STUCK OVER MUCH OF THE U.P.. WINDS TURNING NORTH ON THE BACK SIDE OF            
A SURFACE LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW COULD ALSO RESULT IN                
SOME MIST AND OR DRIZZLE OVER UPSLOPE AREAS. GIVEN ALL THE CLOUD                
COVER... TEMPERATURES WILL NOT RISE MUCH.                                       
MON NIGHT...UPPER RIDGE AXIS MOVES ACROSS THE CWA DURING THE NIGHT              
WHILE THE WESTERN TROUGH MOVES OUT INTO THE WESTERN PLAINS.                     
SUBSIDENCE UNDER THE RIDGE SHOULD EFFECTIVELY END ANY PCPN IN THE               
EVENING...WHICH WOULD BE LOCATED IN THE FAR EASTERN PORTION OF THE              
CWA. STILL...CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO LINGER WITH MOISTURE TRAPPED                
UNDER THE SUBSIDENCE INVERSION. DRYING ABOVE THE INVERSION AND LIGHT            
WINDS SHOULD SUPPORT FOG DEVELOPMENT OVER LAND...AND PERHAPS ON THE             
GREAT LAKES TOO. HAVE INCREASED THE COVERAGE TO AREAS OF FOG. IF ANY            
CLEARING CAN DEVELOP IN THE LOW STRATUS DECK...DENSE FOG DEVELOPING             
IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. GIVEN CLOUD COVER AND MOISTURE...HAVE               
STAYED ABOVE THE COLDER MET GUIDANCE WITH READINGS CLOSER TO MAV                
GUIDANCE.                                                                       
TUE INTO TUE NIGHT...THE BREAK IN PCPN OBSERVED MON NIGHT WILL BE               
BRIEF AS THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN PLAINS MOVES EAST AT A               
GOOD CLIP. STRONG DPVA FROM HEIGHT FALLS MOVING ACROSS WARM                     
ADVECTION AT THE LOW LEVELS (ANOTHER 50-60 KT JET AT 850MB PROGGED)             
SUGGESTS A LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD FORM IN THE                 
VICINITY OF THE TROUGHS ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT. IN                       
ADDITION...STRONG 850MB THETA-E ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE TROUGH MOVING            
ACROSS WESTERN UPPER MICHIGAN IN THE MORNING COULD SUPPORT SOME                 
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS (SIMILAR TO TODAY). MODEL RUN-TO-RUN AND              
BETWEEN MODEL CONSISTENCY IS REMARKABLY GREAT WITH THIS SYSTEM...AND            
THUS HAVE INCREASED POPS TO LIKELY WITH THE COLD FRONTAL                        
THUNDERSTORMS. VERY STRONG WIND FIELDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM               
WOULD SUGGEST A SEVERE THREAT...HOWEVER IT APPEARS THERE IS VERY                
LITTLE CAPE AVAILABLE. SPC DAY 3 OUTLOOK HAS AREA ONLY IN 5 PERCENT             
AT THIS TIME...AND GIVEN THE LACK OF A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF                    
CAPE...HAVE DECLINED TO MENTION ANY SEVERE POSSIBILITY IN THE HWO.              
IF MORE SUN CAN OCCUR ON TUE...THEN THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER            
WOULD GO UP. MAIN CONCERN WOULD BE HEAVY RAIN GIVEN THAT ANOTHER                
SURGE OF 1.5-1.75 INCH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE PROGGED WITH               
THE FRONT. CLEARING IS EXPECTED TO FOLLOW BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AND             
UPPER TROUGH AS PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES FALL TO 0.5 INCHES ACROSS             
THE ENTIRE CWA BY 12Z WED. THIS COOLER AND DRY AIR BUT BREEZY WEST              
TO NORTHWEST WINDS SHOULD RESULT IN READINGS SIMILAR TO THOSE MON               
NIGHT.                                                                          
WED THROUGH SUN...FLOW TURNS ZONAL WED...WITH WESTERLY FLOW HELPING             
TO BRING MILD PACIFIC AIR INTO THE AREA. THEN FOR THU THROUGH                   
SAT...ANOTHER SIGNIFICANT TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO DROP SOUTH THROUGH              
THE WESTERN STATES...HEADING OUT INTO THE PLAINS ON SAT. THE RESULT             
IS THE DEVELOPMENT OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE DAKOTAS. WARM              
AIR ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM SHOULD HELP KEEP TEMPERATURES WELL            
ABOVE NORMAL. GFS/ECMWF BOTH DEPICT 850MB TEMPS CLIMBING TO 14-16C.             
BY SAT...WE COULD BE TALKING ABOUT ANOTHER DAY OF HUMID CONDITIONS              
AS PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES INCREASE TO 1.5 TO 1.75 INCHES AHEAD OF            
THE APPROACHING TROUGH/COLD FRONT. UPPER TROUGH CROSSING THE AREA               
SAT NIGHT WILL BRING IN MUCH COOLER CONDITIONS ON SUN...ASSUMING THE            
TROUGH CAN PUSH EAST INTO THE RIDGE THAT HAS BEEN BUILT OUT AHEAD OF            
IT. WILL NEED TO WATCH THIS SCENARIO CLOSELY AS THE PATTERN COULD               
BECOME FAVORABLE FOR VERY HEAVY RAIN.                                           
NOTE: WE NEED 0.28 INCHES OF PCPN AT THE OFFICE BY 05Z TONIGHT TO               
BREAK THE ALL TIME WETTEST SEPTEMBER RECORD. PREVIOUS RECORD IS 7.60            
SET IN 1968.                                                                    
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION (FOR THE 18 TAF ISSUANCE)...                                          
THE SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH NORTHERN MINNESOTA ANS WESTERN LAKE                
SUPERIOR CONTINUES TO CAUSE LOW CEILIGS AND SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS              
AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER LAKE SUPERIOR. IR SATELLITE SHOWING SCATTERED            
THUNDERSTORMS MOVING INTO WEST U.P. THE MID LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE FROM            
EASTERN NEBRASKA EAST ACROSS THE LAKE MICHIGAN AND LOWER MICHIGAN.              
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE MOVING INTO WESTERN GOGEBIC COUNTY ALONG A                
850MB THETA-E RIDGE. THIS RIDGE IS EXPECTED SHIFT NORTHEAST ALONG               
THE LAKE SHORE AND SHOULD GENERATE A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.             
THIS RIDGE WILL SHIFT SOUTHEAST REACHING KSAW BY 00Z. THIS WILL                 
CAUSE LOWER CEILING. A LOW LEVEL JET WILL BE OVER THE AREA THIS                 
AFTERNOON ADDING TO THE GUSTY CONDITIONS AT KCMX AND KSAW. THE RAIN             
ACROSS THE AREA WILL LEAVE ENOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO DEVELOP SOME            
DRIZZLE AND FOG OVER NIGHT AT BOTH LOCATION UNDER A SURFACE BASED               
INVERSION.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
.MARINE (FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FCST ISSUANCE)...                           
S WINDS...GENERALLY IN THE 15 TO 25 KT RANGE...WILL CONTINUE TODAY              
AHEAD OF A LOW PRES TROUGH OVER THE PLAINS. EXPECT FREQUENT GUSTS TO            
30KT OVER THE E HALF OF THE LAKE WHICH IS FAVORED FOR STRONGER WINDS            
IN SRLY FLOW REGIMES. MAY SEE A FEW 35KT GALE FORCE GUSTS AS WELL.              
THE AREA AROUND GRAND MARAIS AT THE E END OF PICTURED ROCKS NATIONAL            
LAKESHORE IS ONE LOCATION THAT MAY SEE THE HIGHEST WINDS. WINDS WILL            
DIMINISH TONIGHT AND ESPECIALLY MON AS WEAKENING LOW PRES MOVES TO              
THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION. WILL NEED TO WATCH FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT            
AS THE WINDS DIMINISH. NEXT ACTIVE LOW PRES TROUGH WILL RACE E AND              
CROSS LAKE SUPERIOR TUE NIGHT. SRLY WINDS WILL AGAIN RAMP UP IN                 
ADVANCE OF THIS TROUGH...AND IT`S NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT A FEW            
GALE FORCE GUSTS COULD OCCUR OVER THE E HALF OF THE LAKE LATE TUE               
AFTN/EVENING.                                                                   
&&                                                                              
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE                                         
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SYNOPSIS/FIRST PERIOD...DLG                                                     
EXTENDED DISCUSSION...AJ                                                        
AVIATION...ROLFSON                                                              
MARINE...ROLFSON                                                                
</pre> mi                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
1125 AM EDT SUN SEP 30 2007                                                     
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
MANY FORECAST CONCERNS WITH THIS FORECAST UPDATE IS THE CHANCE OF               
PRECIPITATION THIS AFTERNOON.                                                   
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC/NAM SHOWING A DEEP LOW OVER WESTERN                 
KANSAS MOVING NORTHEAST INTO THE RIDGE OVER WESTERN QUEBEC. A                   
LONGWAVE TROUGH IS JUST OFF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. OTHER WEAK                   
SHORTWAVES ARE OVER NORTHERN MINNESOTA AND OVER MANITOBA. A PAIR OF             
LARGE HIGH BLANKETS MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY               
AND OVER NEW ENGLAND. A FRONTAL SYSTEM EXTENDS FROM A LOW OVER                  
NORTHWEST ONTARIO SOUTHWEST THROUGH NORTHWEST MINNESOTA TO A LOW                
OVER NORTHEAST NEBRASKA. AN UPPER LEVEL 100+ KNOT JET MAX IS OVER               
CENTRAL ONTARIO...FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER OVER CENTRAL KANSAS. THIS IS              
DRAWING DEEP MOISTURE FROM THE GULF INTO THE NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI               
RIVER VALLEY AND WESTERN END OF THE FORECAST AREA. SHOWERS AND                  
THUNDERSTORMS ARE OCCURRING OVER WESTERN PART OF THE CWA AND OVER               
CENTRAL ONTARIO IN THE AREA OF HIGHEST MOISTURE AND UPPER LEVEL                 
DIVERGENCE.                                                                     
THE KANSAS LOW WILL MOVE INTO EASTERN NEBRASKA BY LATE AFTERNOON.               
THE RIDGE OVER WESTERN QUEBEC WILL CONTINUE. A WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL              
PUSH ACROSS THE WESTERN U.P. DEEP MOISTURE CONTINUES TO REMAIN OVER             
ONTARIO...MINNESOTA...NORTHWEST WISCONSIN...AND WEST END OF CWA.                
KMQT 88D AND SURFACE REPORTS INDICATE THAT MOST OF THE RAIN IS                  
COMING FROM HIGH BASED CLOUDS. THUS PLAN TO KEEP RAIN IN THE                    
FORECAST FOR THE AFTERNOON OVER THE WEST AND MOSTLY CLOUDY OVER THE             
CENTRAL PART WITH MAINLY AC. WINDS WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE SOUTH.                
SOME OF THE LOW LEVEL JET WILL MIX TO THE SURFACE AS GUSTY                      
CONDITIONS AS INDICATED BY SEVERAL STATIONS ALONG THE LAKE SHORE.               
PLAN TO UPDATE THE FORECAST TO TWEAK THE WORDING.                               
EXTENDED...                                                                     
TONIGHT...UPPER RIDGING WILL REBUILD ACROSS THE PLAINS AS THE EAST              
PACIFIC NW TROUGH MOVES INTO WASHINGTON AND OREGON STATE. THIS                  
REBUILDING OF THE UPPER RIDGE WILL FORCE THE UPPER LOW NEAR OMAHA TO            
LIFT NE AS IT RUNS INTO THE RIDGE TO ITS EAST. BY 12Z MON...THE LOW             
SHOULD BE LOCATED NEAR APPLETON WI. MORE IMPRESSIVE HEIGHT FALLS                
COMPARED TO TODAY...ALONG WITH SOME MID-LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS OVER THE            
WESTERN U.P...SHOULD SUPPORT AN EXPANSION AND INTENSIFICATION OF                
PCPN OVER THE CWA. WILL RAISE POPS TO CATEGORICAL OVER THE WEST HALF            
OF THE CWA GIVEN CONSISTENT MODEL AGREEMENT FOR PCPN THERE. FOR THE             
EASTERN CWA...HAVE ONLY WENT WITH LIKELY VALUES AS HEIGHT FALLS ARE             
LATEST TO HIT THERE. HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES...AROUND 1.5                
INCHES OR 250 PERCENT OF NORMAL...COULD SUPPORT SOME HEAVY RAINFALL             
AMOUNTS. THE NAM INDICATES THIS WITH 3.1 INCHES AT IWD BETWEEN                  
00-12Z. GIVEN PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER AND HIGH DEWPOINTS SUGGESTS A               
WARM NIGHT...PROBABLY NOT TOO FAR FROM AVERAGE HIGH TEMPERATURES.               
MON...RIDGE AXIS OVER THE PLAINS WILL SHIFT INTO WESTERN WI BY 00Z              
AS THE WESTERN TROUGH CONTINUES TO PLOW EASTWARD. THIS WILL CAUSE               
THE UPPER LOW TO SHIFT TO NEAR LAKE HURON. DNVA ASSOCIATED WITH THE             
RIDGE AXIS SHOULD ALLOW SHOWERS TO END BY 18Z OVER THE WEST HALF OF             
THE CWA AND OVER MUCH OF THE EAST HALF OF THE CWA BY 00Z. WILL                  
MAINTAIN THE IDEA OF LIKELY POPS OVER THE EASTERN CWA IN THE MORNING            
WITH CHANCE POPS ELSEWHERE. ALTHOUGH THE SHOWERS END...DRYING ALOFT             
ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER RIDGE APPEARS TO SET UP A SUBSIDENCE                  
INVERSION. GIVEN THE TIME OF YEAR AND PLENTY OF MOISTURE FROM THE               
RAIN TONIGHT SUGGESTS THE POSSIBILITY OF A LOW STRATUS DECK GETTING             
STUCK OVER MUCH OF THE U.P.. WINDS TURNING NORTH ON THE BACK SIDE OF            
A SURFACE LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW COULD ALSO RESULT IN                
SOME MIST AND OR DRIZZLE OVER UPSLOPE AREAS. GIVEN ALL THE CLOUD                
COVER... TEMPERATURES WILL NOT RISE MUCH.                                       
MON NIGHT...UPPER RIDGE AXIS MOVES ACROSS THE CWA DURING THE NIGHT              
WHILE THE WESTERN TROUGH MOVES OUT INTO THE WESTERN PLAINS.                     
SUBSIDENCE UNDER THE RIDGE SHOULD EFFECTIVELY END ANY PCPN IN THE               
EVENING...WHICH WOULD BE LOCATED IN THE FAR EASTERN PORTION OF THE              
CWA. STILL...CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO LINGER WITH MOISTURE TRAPPED                
UNDER THE SUBSIDENCE INVERSION. DRYING ABOVE THE INVERSION AND LIGHT            
WINDS SHOULD SUPPORT FOG DEVELOPMENT OVER LAND...AND PERHAPS ON THE             
GREAT LAKES TOO. HAVE INCREASED THE COVERAGE TO AREAS OF FOG. IF ANY            
CLEARING CAN DEVELOP IN THE LOW STRATUS DECK...DENSE FOG DEVELOPING             
IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. GIVEN CLOUD COVER AND MOISTURE...HAVE               
STAYED ABOVE THE COLDER MET GUIDANCE WITH READINGS CLOSER TO MAV                
GUIDANCE.                                                                       
TUE INTO TUE NIGHT...THE BREAK IN PCPN OBSERVED MON NIGHT WILL BE               
BRIEF AS THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN PLAINS MOVES EAST AT A               
GOOD CLIP. STRONG DPVA FROM HEIGHT FALLS MOVING ACROSS WARM                     
ADVECTION AT THE LOW LEVELS (ANOTHER 50-60 KT JET AT 850MB PROGGED)             
SUGGESTS A LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD FORM IN THE                 
VICINITY OF THE TROUGHS ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT. IN                       
ADDITION...STRONG 850MB THETA-E ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE TROUGH MOVING            
ACROSS WESTERN UPPER MICHIGAN IN THE MORNING COULD SUPPORT SOME                 
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS (SIMILAR TO TODAY). MODEL RUN-TO-RUN AND              
BETWEEN MODEL CONSISTENCY IS REMARKABLY GREAT WITH THIS SYSTEM...AND            
THUS HAVE INCREASED POPS TO LIKELY WITH THE COLD FRONTAL                        
THUNDERSTORMS. VERY STRONG WIND FIELDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM               
WOULD SUGGEST A SEVERE THREAT...HOWEVER IT APPEARS THERE IS VERY                
LITTLE CAPE AVAILABLE. SPC DAY 3 OUTLOOK HAS AREA ONLY IN 5 PERCENT             
AT THIS TIME...AND GIVEN THE LACK OF A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF                    
CAPE...HAVE DECLINED TO MENTION ANY SEVERE POSSIBILITY IN THE HWO.              
IF MORE SUN CAN OCCUR ON TUE...THEN THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER            
WOULD GO UP. MAIN CONCERN WOULD BE HEAVY RAIN GIVEN THAT ANOTHER                
SURGE OF 1.5-1.75 INCH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE PROGGED WITH               
THE FRONT. CLEARING IS EXPECTED TO FOLLOW BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AND             
UPPER TROUGH AS PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES FALL TO 0.5 INCHES ACROSS             
THE ENTIRE CWA BY 12Z WED. THIS COOLER AND DRY AIR BUT BREEZY WEST              
TO NORTHWEST WINDS SHOULD RESULT IN READINGS SIMILAR TO THOSE MON               
NIGHT.                                                                          
WED THROUGH SUN...FLOW TURNS ZONAL WED...WITH WESTERLY FLOW HELPING             
TO BRING MILD PACIFIC AIR INTO THE AREA. THEN FOR THU THROUGH                   
SAT...ANOTHER SIGNIFICANT TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO DROP SOUTH THROUGH              
THE WESTERN STATES...HEADING OUT INTO THE PLAINS ON SAT. THE RESULT             
IS THE DEVELOPMENT OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE DAKOTAS. WARM              
AIR ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM SHOULD HELP KEEP TEMPERATURES WELL            
ABOVE NORMAL. GFS/ECMWF BOTH DEPICT 850MB TEMPS CLIMBING TO 14-16C.             
BY SAT...WE COULD BE TALKING ABOUT ANOTHER DAY OF HUMID CONDITIONS              
AS PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES INCREASE TO 1.5 TO 1.75 INCHES AHEAD OF            
THE APPROACHING TROUGH/COLD FRONT. UPPER TROUGH CROSSING THE AREA               
SAT NIGHT WILL BRING IN MUCH COOLER CONDITIONS ON SUN...ASSUMING THE            
TROUGH CAN PUSH EAST INTO THE RIDGE THAT HAS BEEN BUILT OUT AHEAD OF            
IT. WILL NEED TO WATCH THIS SCENARIO CLOSELY AS THE PATTERN COULD               
BECOME FAVORABLE FOR VERY HEAVY RAIN.                                           
NOTE: WE NEED 0.28 INCHES OF PCPN AT THE OFFICE BY 05Z TONIGHT TO               
BREAK THE ALL TIME WETTEST SEPTEMBER RECORD. PREVIOUS RECORD IS 7.60            
SET IN 1968.                                                                    
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION (FOR THE 12Z TAF ISSUANCE)...                                         
LATEST KMQT VAD WIND PROFILE INDICATES 40KT SRLY WINDS AT 500FT AGL.            
SO...LLWS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MENTIONED AT KCMX/KSAW UNTIL MIXED                
LAYER BUILDS SUFFICIENTLY TO EASE SHARP SPEED CHANGE BTWN SFC WINDS             
AND STRONGER WINDS JUST OFF THE DECK. IN FACT...SRLY WINDS SHOULD               
BECOME FAIRLY STRONG AND GUSTY...ESPECIALLY AT KSAW BY THE AFTN HRS             
AS MIXED LAYER BUILDS. LOW-LEVEL JET IS CURRENTLY HELPING TO                    
GENERATE A LARGE AREA OF SHRA/TSRA ACROSS MN/FAR NW WI/WRN UPPER MI.            
PCPN WILL AFFECT KCMX THRU ABOUT 14Z. BULK OF PCPN WILL PASS W OF               
KSAW...BUT IT IS CLOSE ENOUGH TO WARRANT A MENTION OF -SHRA THRU                
ABOUT 14Z. IN ANYCASE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL INTO MOST OF THE            
AFTN. ADDITIONAL SHRA AND ISOLD TSRA SHOULD MOVE INTO WRN UPPER                 
MI...INCLUDING KCMX...MID TO LATE AFTN AS LOW PRES/SFC TROF                     
APPROACHES. DEFORMATION ZONE PCPN...MODERATE TO HEAVY AT TIMES...               
WILL SLOWLY EDGE E THRU W INTO CNTRL UPPER MI THIS EVENING WITH MVFR            
CIGS/VSBYS. IFR CONDITIONS COULD OCCUR DURING PERIODS OF HEAVIER                
PCPN. CONDITIONS SHOULD TREND TO PREVAILING IFR OVERNIGHT AS SFC                
TROF HEADS E ACROSS WRN UPPER MI.                                               
&&                                                                              
.MARINE (FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FCST ISSUANCE)...                           
S WINDS...GENERALLY IN THE 15 TO 25 KT RANGE...WILL CONTINUE TODAY              
AHEAD OF A LOW PRES TROUGH OVER THE PLAINS. EXPECT FREQUENT GUSTS TO            
30KT OVER THE E HALF OF THE LAKE WHICH IS FAVORED FOR STRONGER WINDS            
IN SRLY FLOW REGIMES. MAY SEE A FEW 35KT GALE FORCE GUSTS AS WELL.              
THE AREA AROUND GRAND MARAIS AT THE E END OF PICTURED ROCKS NATIONAL            
LAKESHORE IS ONE LOCATION THAT MAY SEE THE HIGHEST WINDS. WINDS WILL            
DIMINISH TONIGHT AND ESPECIALLY MON AS WEAKENING LOW PRES MOVES TO              
THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION. WILL NEED TO WATCH FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT            
AS THE WINDS DIMINISH. NEXT ACTIVE LOW PRES TROUGH WILL RACE E AND              
CROSS LAKE SUPERIOR TUE NIGHT. SRLY WINDS WILL AGAIN RAMP UP IN                 
ADVANCE OF THIS TROUGH...AND IT`S NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT A FEW            
GALE FORCE GUSTS COULD OCCUR OVER THE E HALF OF THE LAKE LATE TUE               
AFTN/EVENING.                                                                   
&&                                                                              
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE                                         
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SYNOPSIS/FIRST PERIOD...DLG                                                     
EXTENDED DISCUSSION...AJ                                                        
AVIATION...ROLFSON                                                              
MARINE...ROLFSON                                                                
</pre> mi                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
745 AM EDT SUN SEP 30 2007                                                      
UPDATED FOR AVIATION DISCUSSION                                                 
.SYNOPSIS (ISSUED AT 422 AM EDT)...                                             
07Z WATER VAPOR LOOP AND RUC 500MB HEIGHT ANALYSIS SHOWED RIDGING               
COVERING MUCH OF THE EAST HALF OF THE U.S. INTO SE CANADA...WITH                
500MB HEIGHTS OF 582 DAM OVER UPPER MICHIGAN. TO THE WEST OF THE                
RIDGE...THE FLOW SPLITS WITH A SHRTWV TROUGH OVER SASKATCHEWAN AND              
AN UPPER LOW OVER NW COLORADO. FARTHER WEST...A DEEP TROUGH CAN BE              
SEEN DIGGING SE THROUGH THE EAST PACIFIC. CLOSER TO HOME...AN AREA              
OF SHOWERS AND A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS CROSSED UPPER MI LAST               
EVENING AND NOW ARE SITUATED OVER NE LAKE SUPERIOR. ANOTHER CLUSTER             
OF SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED TSRA ARE EXPANDING IN THE MPX AREA AND IN               
THE VICINITY OF GRB. BOTH OF THESE ARES ARE LOCATED IN A FAIRLY                 
STRONG 850MB THETA-E ADVECTION ZONE ON TOP OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE.            
00Z MPX SOUNDING DEPICTED SSW WINDS OF 60 KT AT 850MB WITH A 15C                
TEMP AND 9C DEWPOINT. THESE STRONG WINDS AND 850MB MOISTURE                     
TRANSPORT EXTEND TO THE SW INTO WESTERN KANSAS AND CENTRAL NEBRASKA             
WITH PROFILERS ALSO DEPICTING 55-60 KT WINDS AT 850MB. WITH THIS                
STRONG WARM ADVECTION AND HEIGHT FALLS DOWNSTREAM OF THE NW COLORADO            
UPPER LOW...STORMS HAVE OCCURRED ALONG THE WEST SIDE OF THE LOW                 
LEVEL JET. IN ADDITION...THE WARM ADVECTION AND HEIGHT FALLS ARE                
SUPPORTING A 999MB LOW PRESSURE TROUGH FROM MANITOBA INTO NE                    
COLORADO. DEWPOINTS ARE BECOMING SOMEWHAT HUMID...ESPECIALLY FOR                
LATE SEPTEMBER...WITH READINGS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S THROUGH              
MUCH OF THE EASTERN PLAINS. HIGHER DEWPOINTS THAN THIS EXIST MUCH               
FURTHER SOUTH...OVER WEST TEXAS.                                                
&&                                                                              
.DISCUSSION (ISSUED AT 422 AM EDT)...                                           
MANY FORECAST CONCERNS...MOSTLY PCPN FOR TODAY THROUGH MON AND TUE              
INTO TUE NIGHT.                                                                 
TODAY...UPPER LOW IN NW COLORADO WILL CONTINUE TO GET PUSHED                    
EASTWARD IN RESPONSE TO THE EAST PACIFIC TROUGH REACHING THE PACIFIC            
NW COAST. BY 00Z...MODELS SHOW THE UPPER LOW NEAR OMAHA. ALTHOUGH               
THE LOW IS PUSHING EASTWARD...MID/UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS REALLY DO NOT             
FALL A WHOLE LOT OVER THE CWA UNTIL LATE...LIKELY DUE TO PERSISTENT             
WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE LOW. THUS...AFTER THE CURRENT WARM                  
ADVECTION PCPN THIS MORNING...THINGS SHOULD DIMINISH AT LEAST FOR               
THE EASTERN CWA. WILL MAINTAIN POPS FOR WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR AND               
THE WEST HALF OF THE U.P....AND ESPECIALLY AFTER 18Z AS HEIGHTS                 
BEGIN TO FALL OUT THERE. CLOUD COVER THIS MORNING OVER THE EAST HALF            
OF THE CWA SHOULD CLEAR OUT THIS AFTERNOON...SETTING THE STAGE FOR A            
BREEZY DAY. BASED ON MOMENTUM TRANSFER...GUSTS SHOULD END UP IN THE             
30-35 KT RANGE...JUST BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA. HOWEVER...WOULD NOT              
BE SURPRISED TO SEE LOCATIONS SUCH AS MUNISING AND GRAND MARAIS GET             
CLOSE OR SLIGHTLY OVER ADVISORY CRITERIA GIVEN THEIR FAVORED FLOW               
FOR SOUTH WINDS AND SOUNDINGS SUGGESTING 40-45 KT WINDS AT 925MB.               
THE WINDS AND CLEARING...ALONG WITH 850MB TEMPS AROUND 15C SHOULD               
ALLOW FOR TEMPS TO CLIMB INTO THE LOW TO MID 70S. IF MORE SUN OCCURS            
THEN EXPECTED...THERE IS A CHANCE TO COME CLOSE TO OR TIE OUR RECORD            
HIGH AT THE OFFICE OF 80 SET IN 2000.                                           
TONIGHT...UPPER RIDGING WILL REBUILD ACROSS THE PLAINS AS THE EAST              
PACIFIC NW TROUGH MOVES INTO WASHINGTON AND OREGON STATE. THIS                  
REBUILDING OF THE UPPER RIDGE WILL FORCE THE UPPER LOW NEAR OMAHA TO            
LIFT NE AS IT RUNS INTO THE RIDGE TO ITS EAST. BY 12Z MON...THE LOW             
SHOULD BE LOCATED NEAR APPLETON WI. MORE IMPRESSIVE HEIGHT FALLS                
COMPARED TO TODAY...ALONG WITH SOME MID-LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS OVER THE            
WESTERN U.P...SHOULD SUPPORT AN EXPANSION AND INTENSIFICATION OF                
PCPN OVER THE CWA. WILL RAISE POPS TO CATEGORICAL OVER THE WEST HALF            
OF THE CWA GIVEN CONSISTENT MODEL AGREEMENT FOR PCPN THERE. FOR THE             
EASTERN CWA...HAVE ONLY WENT WITH LIKELY VALUES AS HEIGHT FALLS ARE             
LATEST TO HIT THERE. HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES...AROUND 1.5                
INCHES OR 250 PERCENT OF NORMAL...COULD SUPPORT SOME HEAVY RAINFALL             
AMOUNTS. THE NAM INDICATES THIS WITH 3.1 INCHES AT IWD BETWEEN                  
00-12Z. GIVEN PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER AND HIGH DEWPOINTS SUGGESTS A               
WARM NIGHT...PROBABLY NOT TOO FAR FROM AVERAGE HIGH TEMPERATURES.               
MON...RIDGE AXIS OVER THE PLAINS WILL SHIFT INTO WESTERN WI BY 00Z              
AS THE WESTERN TROUGH CONTINUES TO PLOW EASTWARD. THIS WILL CAUSE               
THE UPPER LOW TO SHIFT TO NEAR LAKE HURON. DNVA ASSOCIATED WITH THE             
RIDGE AXIS SHOULD ALLOW SHOWERS TO END BY 18Z OVER THE WEST HALF OF             
THE CWA AND OVER MUCH OF THE EAST HALF OF THE CWA BY 00Z. WILL                  
MAINTAIN THE IDEA OF LIKELY POPS OVER THE EASTERN CWA IN THE MORNING            
WITH CHANCE POPS ELSEWHERE. ALTHOUGH THE SHOWERS END...DRYING ALOFT             
ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER RIDGE APPEARS TO SET UP A SUBSIDENCE                  
INVERSION. GIVEN THE TIME OF YEAR AND PLENTY OF MOISTURE FROM THE               
RAIN TONIGHT SUGGESTS THE POSSIBILITY OF A LOW STRATUS DECK GETTING             
STUCK OVER MUCH OF THE U.P.. WINDS TURNING NORTH ON THE BACK SIDE OF            
A SURFACE LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW COULD ALSO RESULT IN                
SOME MIST AND OR DRIZZLE OVER UPSLOPE AREAS. GIVEN ALL THE CLOUD                
COVER... TEMPERATURES WILL NOT RISE MUCH.                                       
MON NIGHT...UPPER RIDGE AXIS MOVES ACROSS THE CWA DURING THE NIGHT              
WHILE THE WESTERN TROUGH MOVES OUT INTO THE WESTERN PLAINS.                     
SUBSIDENCE UNDER THE RIDGE SHOULD EFFECTIVELY END ANY PCPN IN THE               
EVENING...WHICH WOULD BE LOCATED IN THE FAR EASTERN PORTION OF THE              
CWA. STILL...CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO LINGER WITH MOISTURE TRAPPED                
UNDER THE SUBSIDENCE INVERSION. DRYING ABOVE THE INVERSION AND LIGHT            
WINDS SHOULD SUPPORT FOG DEVELOPMENT OVER LAND...AND PERHAPS ON THE             
GREAT LAKES TOO. HAVE INCREASED THE COVERAGE TO AREAS OF FOG. IF ANY            
CLEARING CAN DEVELOP IN THE LOW STRATUS DECK...DENSE FOG DEVELOPING             
IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. GIVEN CLOUD COVER AND MOISTURE...HAVE               
STAYED ABOVE THE COLDER MET GUIDANCE WITH READINGS CLOSER TO MAV                
GUIDANCE.                                                                       
TUE INTO TUE NIGHT...THE BREAK IN PCPN OBSERVED MON NIGHT WILL BE               
BRIEF AS THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN PLAINS MOVES EAST AT A               
GOOD CLIP. STRONG DPVA FROM HEIGHT FALLS MOVING ACROSS WARM                     
ADVECTION AT THE LOW LEVELS (ANOTHER 50-60 KT JET AT 850MB PROGGED)             
SUGGESTS A LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD FORM IN THE                 
VICINITY OF THE TROUGHS ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT. IN                       
ADDITION...STRONG 850MB THETA-E ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE TROUGH MOVING            
ACROSS WESTERN UPPER MICHIGAN IN THE MORNING COULD SUPPORT SOME                 
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS (SIMILAR TO TODAY). MODEL RUN-TO-RUN AND              
BETWEEN MODEL CONSISTENCY IS REMARKABLY GREAT WITH THIS SYSTEM...AND            
THUS HAVE INCREASED POPS TO LIKELY WITH THE COLD FRONTAL                        
THUNDERSTORMS. VERY STRONG WIND FIELDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM               
WOULD SUGGEST A SEVERE THREAT...HOWEVER IT APPEARS THERE IS VERY                
LITTLE CAPE AVAILABLE. SPC DAY 3 OUTLOOK HAS AREA ONLY IN 5 PERCENT             
AT THIS TIME...AND GIVEN THE LACK OF A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF                    
CAPE...HAVE DECLINED TO MENTION ANY SEVERE POSSIBILITY IN THE HWO.              
IF MORE SUN CAN OCCUR ON TUE...THEN THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER            
WOULD GO UP. MAIN CONCERN WOULD BE HEAVY RAIN GIVEN THAT ANOTHER                
SURGE OF 1.5-1.75 INCH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE PROGGED WITH               
THE FRONT. CLEARING IS EXPECTED TO FOLLOW BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AND             
UPPER TROUGH AS PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES FALL TO 0.5 INCHES ACROSS             
THE ENTIRE CWA BY 12Z WED. THIS COOLER AND DRY AIR BUT BREEZY WEST              
TO NORTHWEST WINDS SHOULD RESULT IN READINGS SIMILAR TO THOSE MON               
NIGHT.                                                                          
WED THROUGH SUN...FLOW TURNS ZONAL WED...WITH WESTERLY FLOW HELPING             
TO BRING MILD PACIFIC AIR INTO THE AREA. THEN FOR THU THROUGH                   
SAT...ANOTHER SIGNIFICANT TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO DROP SOUTH THROUGH              
THE WESTERN STATES...HEADING OUT INTO THE PLAINS ON SAT. THE RESULT             
IS THE DEVELOPMENT OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE DAKOTAS. WARM              
AIR ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM SHOULD HELP KEEP TEMPERATURES WELL            
ABOVE NORMAL. GFS/ECMWF BOTH DEPICT 850MB TEMPS CLIMBING TO 14-16C.             
BY SAT...WE COULD BE TALKING ABOUT ANOTHER DAY OF HUMID CONDITIONS              
AS PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES INCREASE TO 1.5 TO 1.75 INCHES AHEAD OF            
THE APPROACHING TROUGH/COLD FRONT. UPPER TROUGH CROSSING THE AREA               
SAT NIGHT WILL BRING IN MUCH COOLER CONDITIONS ON SUN...ASSUMING THE            
TROUGH CAN PUSH EAST INTO THE RIDGE THAT HAS BEEN BUILT OUT AHEAD OF            
IT. WILL NEED TO WATCH THIS SCENARIO CLOSELY AS THE PATTERN COULD               
BECOME FAVORABLE FOR VERY HEAVY RAIN.                                           
NOTE: WE NEED 0.28 INCHES OF PCPN AT THE OFFICE BY 05Z TONIGHT TO               
BREAK THE ALL TIME WETTEST SEPTEMBER RECORD. PREVIOUS RECORD IS 7.60            
SET IN 1968.                                                                    
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION (FOR THE 12Z TAF ISSUANCE)...                                         
LATEST KMQT VAD WIND PROFILE INDICATES 40KT SRLY WINDS AT 500FT AGL.            
SO...LLWS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MENTIONED AT KCMX/KSAW UNTIL MIXED                
LAYER BUILDS SUFFICIENTLY TO EASE SHARP SPEED CHANGE BTWN SFC WINDS             
AND STRONGER WINDS JUST OFF THE DECK. IN FACT...SRLY WINDS SHOULD               
BECOME FAIRLY STRONG AND GUSTY...ESPECIALLY AT KSAW BY THE AFTN HRS             
AS MIXED LAYER BUILDS. LOW-LEVEL JET IS CURRENTLY HELPING TO                    
GENERATE A LARGE AREA OF SHRA/TSRA ACROSS MN/FAR NW WI/WRN UPPER MI.            
PCPN WILL AFFECT KCMX THRU ABOUT 14Z. BULK OF PCPN WILL PASS W OF               
KSAW...BUT IT IS CLOSE ENOUGH TO WARRANT A MENTION OF -SHRA THRU                
ABOUT 14Z. IN ANYCASE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL INTO MOST OF THE            
AFTN. ADDITIONAL SHRA AND ISOLD TSRA SHOULD MOVE INTO WRN UPPER                 
MI...INCLUDING KCMX...MID TO LATE AFTN AS LOW PRES/SFC TROF                     
APPROACHES. DEFORMATION ZONE PCPN...MODERATE TO HEAVY AT TIMES...               
WILL SLOWLY EDGE E THRU W INTO CNTRL UPPER MI THIS EVENING WITH MVFR            
CIGS/VSBYS. IFR CONDITIONS COULD OCCUR DURING PERIODS OF HEAVIER                
PCPN. CONDITIONS SHOULD TREND TO PREVAILING IFR OVERNIGHT AS SFC                
TROF HEADS E ACROSS WRN UPPER MI.                                               
&&                                                                              
.MARINE (FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FCST ISSUANCE)...                           
S WINDS...GENERALLY IN THE 15 TO 25 KT RANGE...WILL CONTINUE TODAY              
AHEAD OF A LOW PRES TROUGH OVER THE PLAINS. EXPECT FREQUENT GUSTS TO            
30KT OVER THE E HALF OF THE LAKE WHICH IS FAVORED FOR STRONGER WINDS            
IN SRLY FLOW REGIMES. MAY SEE A FEW 35KT GALE FORCE GUSTS AS WELL.              
THE AREA AROUND GRAND MARAIS AT THE E END OF PICTURED ROCKS NATIONAL            
LAKESHORE IS ONE LOCATION THAT MAY SEE THE HIGHEST WINDS. WINDS WILL            
DIMINISH TONIGHT AND ESPECIALLY MON AS WEAKENING LOW PRES MOVES TO              
THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION. WILL NEED TO WATCH FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT            
AS THE WINDS DIMINISH. NEXT ACTIVE LOW PRES TROUGH WILL RACE E AND              
CROSS LAKE SUPERIOR TUE NIGHT. SRLY WINDS WILL AGAIN RAMP UP IN                 
ADVANCE OF THIS TROUGH...AND IT`S NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT A FEW            
GALE FORCE GUSTS COULD OCCUR OVER THE E HALF OF THE LAKE LATE TUE               
AFTN/EVENING.                                                                   
&&                                                                              
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE                                         
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SYNOPSIS/DISCUSSION...AJ                                                        
AVIATION...ROLFSON                                                              
MARINE...ROLFSON                                                                
</pre> mi                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
422 AM EDT SUN SEP 30 2007                                                      
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
07Z WATER VAPOR LOOP AND RUC 500MB HEIGHT ANALYSIS SHOWED RIDGING               
COVERING MUCH OF THE EAST HALF OF THE U.S. INTO SE CANADA...WITH                
500MB HEIGHTS OF 582 DAM OVER UPPER MICHIGAN. TO THE WEST OF THE                
RIDGE...THE FLOW SPLITS WITH A SHRTWV TROUGH OVER SASKATCHEWAN AND              
AN UPPER LOW OVER NW COLORADO. FARTHER WEST...A DEEP TROUGH CAN BE              
SEEN DIGGING SE THROUGH THE EAST PACIFIC. CLOSER TO HOME...AN AREA              
OF SHOWERS AND A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS CROSSED UPPER MI LAST               
EVENING AND NOW ARE SITUATED OVER NE LAKE SUPERIOR. ANOTHER CLUSTER             
OF SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED TSRA ARE EXPANDING IN THE MPX AREA AND IN               
THE VICINITY OF GRB. BOTH OF THESE ARES ARE LOCATED IN A FAIRLY                 
STRONG 850MB THETA-E ADVECTION ZONE ON TOP OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE.            
00Z MPX SOUNDING DEPICTED SSW WINDS OF 60 KT AT 850MB WITH A 15C                
TEMP AND 9C DEWPOINT. THESE STRONG WINDS AND 850MB MOISTURE                     
TRANSPORT EXTEND TO THE SW INTO WESTERN KANSAS AND CENTRAL NEBRASKA             
WITH PROFILERS ALSO DEPICTING 55-60 KT WINDS AT 850MB. WITH THIS                
STRONG WARM ADVECTION AND HEIGHT FALLS DOWNSTREAM OF THE NW COLORADO            
UPPER LOW...STORMS HAVE OCCURRED ALONG THE WEST SIDE OF THE LOW                 
LEVEL JET. IN ADDITION...THE WARM ADVECTION AND HEIGHT FALLS ARE                
SUPPORTING A 999MB LOW PRESSURE TROUGH FROM MANITOBA INTO NE                    
COLORADO. DEWPOINTS ARE BECOMING SOMEWHAT HUMID...ESPECIALLY FOR                
LATE SEPTEMBER...WITH READINGS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S THROUGH              
MUCH OF THE EASTERN PLAINS. HIGHER DEWPOINTS THAN THIS EXIST MUCH               
FURTHER SOUTH...OVER WEST TEXAS.                                                
&&                                                                              
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
MANY FORECAST CONCERNS...MOSTLY PCPN FOR TODAY THROUGH MON AND TUE              
INTO TUE NIGHT.                                                                 
TODAY...UPPER LOW IN NW COLORADO WILL CONTINUE TO GET PUSHED                    
EASTWARD IN RESPONSE TO THE EAST PACIFIC TROUGH REACHING THE PACIFIC            
NW COAST. BY 00Z...MODELS SHOW THE UPPER LOW NEAR OMAHA. ALTHOUGH               
THE LOW IS PUSHING EASTWARD...MID/UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS REALLY DO NOT             
FALL A WHOLE LOT OVER THE CWA UNTIL LATE...LIKELY DUE TO PERSISTENT             
WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE LOW. THUS...AFTER THE CURRENT WARM                  
ADVECTION PCPN THIS MORNING...THINGS SHOULD DIMINISH AT LEAST FOR               
THE EASTERN CWA. WILL MAINTAIN POPS FOR WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR AND               
THE WEST HALF OF THE U.P....AND ESPECIALLY AFTER 18Z AS HEIGHTS                 
BEGIN TO FALL OUT THERE. CLOUD COVER THIS MORNING OVER THE EAST HALF            
OF THE CWA SHOULD CLEAR OUT THIS AFTERNOON...SETTING THE STAGE FOR A            
BREEZY DAY. BASED ON MOMENTUM TRANSFER...GUSTS SHOULD END UP IN THE             
30-35 KT RANGE...JUST BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA. HOWEVER...WOULD NOT              
BE SURPRISED TO SEE LOCATIONS SUCH AS MUNISING AND GRAND MARAIS GET             
CLOSE OR SLIGHTLY OVER ADVISORY CRITERIA GIVEN THEIR FAVORED FLOW               
FOR SOUTH WINDS AND SOUNDINGS SUGGESTING 40-45 KT WINDS AT 925MB.               
THE WINDS AND CLEARING...ALONG WITH 850MB TEMPS AROUND 15C SHOULD               
ALLOW FOR TEMPS TO CLIMB INTO THE LOW TO MID 70S. IF MORE SUN OCCURS            
THEN EXPECTED...THERE IS A CHANCE TO COME CLOSE TO OR TIE OUR RECORD            
HIGH AT THE OFFICE OF 80 SET IN 2000.                                           
TONIGHT...UPPER RIDGING WILL REBUILD ACROSS THE PLAINS AS THE EAST              
PACIFIC NW TROUGH MOVES INTO WASHINGTON AND OREGON STATE. THIS                  
REBUILDING OF THE UPPER RIDGE WILL FORCE THE UPPER LOW NEAR OMAHA TO            
LIFT NE AS IT RUNS INTO THE RIDGE TO ITS EAST. BY 12Z MON...THE LOW             
SHOULD BE LOCATED NEAR APPLETON WI. MORE IMPRESSIVE HEIGHT FALLS                
COMPARED TO TODAY...ALONG WITH SOME MID-LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS OVER THE            
WESTERN U.P...SHOULD SUPPORT AN EXPANSION AND INTENSIFICATION OF                
PCPN OVER THE CWA. WILL RAISE POPS TO CATEGORICAL OVER THE WEST HALF            
OF THE CWA GIVEN CONSISTENT MODEL AGREEMENT FOR PCPN THERE. FOR THE             
EASTERN CWA...HAVE ONLY WENT WITH LIKELY VALUES AS HEIGHT FALLS ARE             
LATEST TO HIT THERE. HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES...AROUND 1.5                
INCHES OR 250 PERCENT OF NORMAL...COULD SUPPORT SOME HEAVY RAINFALL             
AMOUNTS. THE NAM INDICATES THIS WITH 3.1 INCHES AT IWD BETWEEN                  
00-12Z. GIVEN PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER AND HIGH DEWPOINTS SUGGESTS A               
WARM NIGHT...PROBABLY NOT TOO FAR FROM AVERAGE HIGH TEMPERATURES.               
MON...RIDGE AXIS OVER THE PLAINS WILL SHIFT INTO WESTERN WI BY 00Z              
AS THE WESTERN TROUGH CONTINUES TO PLOW EASTWARD. THIS WILL CAUSE               
THE UPPER LOW TO SHIFT TO NEAR LAKE HURON. DNVA ASSOCIATED WITH THE             
RIDGE AXIS SHOULD ALLOW SHOWERS TO END BY 18Z OVER THE WEST HALF OF             
THE CWA AND OVER MUCH OF THE EAST HALF OF THE CWA BY 00Z. WILL                  
MAINTAIN THE IDEA OF LIKELY POPS OVER THE EASTERN CWA IN THE MORNING            
WITH CHANCE POPS ELSEWHERE. ALTHOUGH THE SHOWERS END...DRYING ALOFT             
ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER RIDGE APPEARS TO SET UP A SUBSIDENCE                  
INVERSION. GIVEN THE TIME OF YEAR AND PLENTY OF MOISTURE FROM THE               
RAIN TONIGHT SUGGESTS THE POSSIBILITY OF A LOW STRATUS DECK GETTING             
STUCK OVER MUCH OF THE U.P.. WINDS TURNING NORTH ON THE BACK SIDE OF            
A SURFACE LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW COULD ALSO RESULT IN                
SOME MIST AND OR DRIZZLE OVER UPSLOPE AREAS. GIVEN ALL THE CLOUD                
COVER... TEMPERATURES WILL NOT RISE MUCH.                                       
MON NIGHT...UPPER RIDGE AXIS MOVES ACROSS THE CWA DURING THE NIGHT              
WHILE THE WESTERN TROUGH MOVES OUT INTO THE WESTERN PLAINS.                     
SUBSIDENCE UNDER THE RIDGE SHOULD EFFECTIVELY END ANY PCPN IN THE               
EVENING...WHICH WOULD BE LOCATED IN THE FAR EASTERN PORTION OF THE              
CWA. STILL...CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO LINGER WITH MOISTURE TRAPPED                
UNDER THE SUBSIDENCE INVERSION. DRYING ABOVE THE INVERSION AND LIGHT            
WINDS SHOULD SUPPORT FOG DEVELOPMENT OVER LAND...AND PERHAPS ON THE             
GREAT LAKES TOO. HAVE INCREASED THE COVERAGE TO AREAS OF FOG. IF ANY            
CLEARING CAN DEVELOP IN THE LOW STRATUS DECK...DENSE FOG DEVELOPING             
IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. GIVEN CLOUD COVER AND MOISTURE...HAVE               
STAYED ABOVE THE COLDER MET GUIDANCE WITH READINGS CLOSER TO MAV                
GUIDANCE.                                                                       
TUE INTO TUE NIGHT...THE BREAK IN PCPN OBSERVED MON NIGHT WILL BE               
BRIEF AS THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN PLAINS MOVES EAST AT A               
GOOD CLIP. STRONG DPVA FROM HEIGHT FALLS MOVING ACROSS WARM                     
ADVECTION AT THE LOW LEVELS (ANOTHER 50-60 KT JET AT 850MB PROGGED)             
SUGGESTS A LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD FORM IN THE                 
VICINITY OF THE TROUGHS ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT. IN                       
ADDITION...STRONG 850MB THETA-E ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE TROUGH MOVING            
ACROSS WESTERN UPPER MICHIGAN IN THE MORNING COULD SUPPORT SOME                 
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS (SIMILAR TO TODAY). MODEL RUN-TO-RUN AND              
BETWEEN MODEL CONSISTENCY IS REMARKABLY GREAT WITH THIS SYSTEM...AND            
THUS HAVE INCREASED POPS TO LIKELY WITH THE COLD FRONTAL                        
THUNDERSTORMS. VERY STRONG WIND FIELDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM               
WOULD SUGGEST A SEVERE THREAT...HOWEVER IT APPEARS THERE IS VERY                
LITTLE CAPE AVAILABLE. SPC DAY 3 OUTLOOK HAS AREA ONLY IN 5 PERCENT             
AT THIS TIME...AND GIVEN THE LACK OF A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF                    
CAPE...HAVE DECLINED TO MENTION ANY SEVERE POSSIBILITY IN THE HWO.              
IF MORE SUN CAN OCCUR ON TUE...THEN THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER            
WOULD GO UP. MAIN CONCERN WOULD BE HEAVY RAIN GIVEN THAT ANOTHER                
SURGE OF 1.5-1.75 INCH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE PROGGED WITH               
THE FRONT. CLEARING IS EXPECTED TO FOLLOW BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AND             
UPPER TROUGH AS PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES FALL TO 0.5 INCHES ACROSS             
THE ENTIRE CWA BY 12Z WED. THIS COOLER AND DRY AIR BUT BREEZY WEST              
TO NORTHWEST WINDS SHOULD RESULT IN READINGS SIMILAR TO THOSE MON               
NIGHT.                                                                          
WED THROUGH SUN...FLOW TURNS ZONAL WED...WITH WESTERLY FLOW HELPING             
TO BRING MILD PACIFIC AIR INTO THE AREA. THEN FOR THU THROUGH                   
SAT...ANOTHER SIGNIFICANT TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO DROP SOUTH THROUGH              
THE WESTERN STATES...HEADING OUT INTO THE PLAINS ON SAT. THE RESULT             
IS THE DEVELOPMENT OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE DAKOTAS. WARM              
AIR ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM SHOULD HELP KEEP TEMPERATURES WELL            
ABOVE NORMAL. GFS/ECMWF BOTH DEPICT 850MB TEMPS CLIMBING TO 14-16C.             
BY SAT...WE COULD BE TALKING ABOUT ANOTHER DAY OF HUMID CONDITIONS              
AS PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES INCREASE TO 1.5 TO 1.75 INCHES AHEAD OF            
THE APPROACHING TROUGH/COLD FRONT. UPPER TROUGH CROSSING THE AREA               
SAT NIGHT WILL BRING IN MUCH COOLER CONDITIONS ON SUN...ASSUMING THE            
TROUGH CAN PUSH EAST INTO THE RIDGE THAT HAS BEEN BUILT OUT AHEAD OF            
IT. WILL NEED TO WATCH THIS SCENARIO CLOSELY AS THE PATTERN COULD               
BECOME FAVORABLE FOR VERY HEAVY RAIN.                                           
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION (FOR THE 06Z TAF ISSUANCE)...                                         
A BAND OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS SUPPORTED BY 40-50 KT              
INFLOW INTO A 850-700 MB WARM FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTHEAST             
OUT OF UPPER MICHIGAN OVERNIGHT. LLWS CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO                
PERSIST DURING THE NIGHT WITH THE PRES GRADIENT REMAINING TIGHT                 
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. OTHERWISE...EXPECT VFR             
CONDITIONS AFTER THE SHRA/TSRA DEPART AFT 06Z. SURFACE HEATING WILL             
AID MIXING WITH SOUTH WIND GUSTS TO AROUND 25 KT EXPECTED.                      
ADDITIONAL SHRA AND ISOLD TSRA MAY MOVE INTO WEST UPPER MI...                   
INCLUDING KCMX...BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON AS THE LOW APPROACHES. THE            
DEFORMATION ZONE PCPN...MODERATE TO HEAVY AT TIMES...WILL SLOWLY                
EDGE EASTWARD THROUGH WEST INTO CENTRAL UPPER MI WEDNESDAY EVENING              
WITH MVFR CIGS/VSBYS.                                                           
NOTE: WE NEED 0.28 INCHES OF PCPN AT THE OFFICE BY 05Z TONIGHT TO               
BREAK THE ALL TIME WETTEST SEPTEMBER RECORD. PREVIOUS RECORD IS 7.60            
SET IN 1968.                                                                    
&&                                                                              
.MARINE (FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FCST ISSUANCE)...                           
S WINDS...GENERALLY IN THE 15 TO 25 KT RANGE...WILL CONTINUE TODAY              
AHEAD OF A LOW PRES TROUGH OVER THE PLAINS. EXPECT FREQUENT GUSTS TO            
30KT OVER THE E HALF OF THE LAKE WHICH IS FAVORED FOR STRONGER WINDS            
IN SRLY FLOW REGIMES. MAY SEE A FEW 35KT GALE FORCE GUSTS AS WELL.              
THE AREA AROUND GRAND MARAIS AT THE E END OF PICTURED ROCKS NATIONAL            
LAKESHORE IS ONE LOCATION THAT MAY SEE THE HIGHEST WINDS. WINDS WILL            
DIMINISH TONIGHT AND ESPECIALLY MON AS WEAKENING LOW PRES MOVES TO              
THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION. WILL NEED TO WATCH FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT            
AS THE WINDS DIMINISH. NEXT ACTIVE LOW PRES TROUGH WILL RACE E AND              
CROSS LAKE SUPERIOR TUE NIGHT. SRLY WINDS WILL AGAIN RAMP UP IN                 
ADVANCE OF THIS TROUGH...AND IT`S NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT A FEW            
GALE FORCE GUSTS COULD OCCUR OVER THE E HALF OF THE LAKE LATE TUE               
AFTN/EVENING.                                                                   
&&                                                                              
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE                                         
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SYNOPSIS/DISCUSSION...AJ                                                        
AVIATION...JLB                                                                  
MARINE...ROLFSON                                                                
</pre> mi                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
130 AM EDT SUN SEP 30 2007                                                      
UPDATED FOR AVIATION DISCUSSION                                                 
.UPDATE (ISSUED AT 1020 PM EDT)...                                              
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDESTORMS SUPPORTED BY STRONG BAND OF                   
305K-310K ISENTROPIC LIFT...50-55 KT SW INFLOW TOWARD THE 800-700 MB            
FRONT...AND A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH WERE LIFTING STEADILY ENE                   
THROUGH UPPER MI. SOME REDEVELOPMENT ON THE SW EDGE HAS BEEN                    
OVSERVED AND A FEW ADDITIONAL SHRA/TSRA WERE NOTED OVER CNTRL WI.               
MUCAPE VALUES TO AROUND 500 J/KG WITH 10C DEWPOINTS IN THE 800-750              
MB LAYER...PER TAMDAR SOUNDINGS...WAS ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SOME TSRA               
WITH BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS. RADAR/SATELLITE TRENDS AND 00Z NAM/RUC              
ISENTROPIC PROGS SUGGEST THAT THE PCPN BAND WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT               
ENE EVEN IF ADDITIONAL SHRA/TSRA DEVELOPING ON THE BACK EDGE OF THE             
BAND SLOW ITS PROGRESS.                                                         
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT AND SUN)...                                                
EARLY AFTERNOON WV LOOP SHOWING S/WV THAT WAS OVER MN EARLIER TODAY             
NOW MOVING INTO NORTHERN WI. REGIONAL RADAR COMPOSITE CONTINUING TO             
SHOW SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MOVING ACROSS THE                
ARROWHEAD OF MN AND ACROSS CENTRAL WI AHEAD OF THE S/WV. THIS PRECIP            
WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE INTO A DRIER AIRMASS ACROSS UPPER MI...BUT THE            
AIRMASS WILL CONTINUE TO MOISTEN OVER TIME. IT APPEARS BEST CHANCE              
OF RAINFALL ACROSS THE AREA WILL BE DURING THE EVENING HOURS TO                 
SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. THIS WILL BE THE PERIOD WHEN BEST ISENTROPIC            
LIFT ALIGNS WITH ADDED LIFT FROM PASSING S/WV.  WILL CONTINUE TO                
TAPER POPS FROM HI CHANCE OVER LAKE SUPERIOR TO NO POPS IN THE SOUTH.           
AFTER S/WV MOVES THROUGH NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF FORCING WILL BE LEFT            
TO SQUEEZE OUT PRECIPITATION AS BEST ISENTROPIC LIFT AND WARM                   
ADVECTION WILL SHIFT NORTHWARD. AFTER MIDNIGHT...HIGHEST POPS WILL              
BE REFOCUSED OUT WEST CLOSER TO THE MAIN UPPER TROF WHERE                       
ADDITIONAL WEAK S/WV WILL BE RIPPLING NORTHEASTWARD IN FAST                     
SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER FLOW. AS UPPER TROF GETS CLOSER TO THE AREA ON              
SUNDAY EXPECT POPS TO INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGHOUT THE DAY.            
MOISTURE WILL HAVE INCREASED SIGNIFICANTLY BY THEN WITH PWS IN                  
EXCESS OF 1.5 INCHES.                                                           
STILL LOOKS LIKE A BREEZY DAY ON SUNDAY WITH 35-40KT AVBL TO BE                 
TAPPED 1-2KFT AGL AS MIXED LAYER BUILDS. THE NCNTRL AND ERN FCST                
AREA SHOULD BE ESPECIALLY FAVORED FOR WINDY CONDITIONS IN THIS SRLY             
FLOW SITUATION. HOWEVER...GRADIENT WILL BEGIN TO RELAX DURING THE               
AFTERNOON AS SURFACE TROF GETS CLOSER.                                          
.LONG TERM (SUN NIGHT THROUGH NEXT SAT)...                                      
UPPER AIR PATTERN VERY AMPLIFIED TO BEGIN THEN TRANSITIONS TO MORE              
OF A BROAD TROUGH IN THE WEST AND RIDGE IN THE EAST BY NEXT WEEKEND.            
TWO SHARP WELL DEFINED UPR LEVEL TROUGHS AFFECT THE UPR GREAT LAKES             
THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEK. LEADING SYSTEM IS DUE IN SUN NIGHT INTO             
MON IS WELL AGREED UPON AND SHOULD EXIT LATE MON AFTN/MON EVENING.              
00Z ECMWF PREFERRED FOR DETAILS. UPR LOW LIFTS INTO NORTHERN MN BY              
00Z MON WITH STRONG S WINDS ON FRONT SIDE OF TROUGH BRINGING UP                 
ABUNDANT MOISTURE AS EVIDENCED BY H85 DEWPOINTS TO +10C AND PWATS               
NEAR 1.75 INCHES WHICH IS APPROXIMATELY A WHOPPING 250 PCT OF                   
NORMAL. PVA AND H85 CONVERGENCE COMBINES WITH DEEP MOISTURE SOME                
SLIGHTLY ELEVATED INSTABILITY TO PRODUCE A LIKELY PERIOD OF SHOWERS.            
AS SYSTEM BEGINS TO OCCLUDE PSEUDO TROF OF WARM AIR ALOFT SHOWS UP              
LOOKING AT H7 THETA-E. THIS FEATURE WILL DRAG ACROSS THE EAST CWA ON            
MON SO LINGERING LIKELY POPS OVER THOSE AREAS ON MON MORNING. ONCE              
UPR LOW DEPARTS...A WEAK SFC TROUGH IS LEFT TO LINGER OVR THE AREA              
MON NIGHT INTO EARLY TUE. SETUP SEEMS LIKE IT FAVORS SOME FOG AFTER             
RAIN ENDS MON EVENING. LACK OF MIXING MAY ALLOW THE FOG TO STICK                
AROUND UNTIL MIXING LATER TUE.                                                  
SECOND UPR TROUGH FOLLOWS QUICKLY ON THE HEELS OF THE SUN NIGHT AND             
MON ONE. ECMWF AND CANADIAN PREFERRED AS GFS APPEARS A BIT TOO                  
STRONG. OVERALL THOUGH...GOOD AGREEMENT ON GENERAL IDEA WITH THIS               
SYSTEM TOO. QUICK MOVEMENT LEADS TO BEST CHANCES OF RAIN TUE NIGHT.             
00Z ECMWF INDICATES FRONTAL BOUNDARY TRIGGERING PCPN IS ALREADY                 
THROUGH CWA BY 12Z WED. ENDED PCPN A BIT QUICKER BASED ON LATEST                
MODEL TRENDS.                                                                   
TO CLOSE THE WEEK...WSW FLOW INCREASES IN RESPONSE TO TROUGH OVER               
WESTERN CONUS AND EAST COAST RIDGE. H5 HEIGHTS INTO THE 570-575DAM              
RANGE. HIGHS INTO THE 70S SEEM APPROPRIATE. ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE FOR               
THU/FRI INDICATES HIGHS IN THE LWR 70S. CONSIDERING THIS GUIDANCE IS            
BIASED TOWARD CLIMO AND THIS IS A LARGE DEPARTURE FM CLIMO...TEMPS              
COULD END UP REACHING NEAR 80. 80S CERTAINLY NOT UNHEARD OF FOR THIS            
TIME OF YEAR AS AN 80 DEGREE OR HIGHER READING HAS BEEN OBSERVED AT             
THE NWS OFFICE AS LATE AS OCT 17. QUICK GLANCE AT ENSEMBLES AND FAR             
REACHES OF ECMWF/GFS INDICATE A BRIEF BOUT OF COOLER WEATHER ON THE             
HORIZON DAYS 7-10. HOWEVER...THERE ARE ALSO INDICATIONS THAT WARMER             
WEATHER PATTERN SETS UP AGAIN INTO THE MIDDLE OF OCT.                           
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION (FOR THE 06Z TAF ISSUANCE)...                                         
A BAND OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS SUPPORTED BY 40-50 KT              
INLOW INTO A 850-700 MB WARM FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTHEAST              
OUT OF UPPER MICHIGAN OVERNIGHT. LLWS CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO                
PERSIST DURING THE NIGHT WITH THE PRES GRADIENT REMAINING TIGHT                 
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. OTHERWISE...EXPECT VFR             
CONDITIONS AFTER THE SHRA/TSRA DEPART AFT 06Z. SURFACE HEATING WILL             
AID MIXING WITH SOUTH WIND GUSTS TO AROUND 25 KT EXPECTED.                      
ADDITIONAL SHRA AND ISOLD TSRA MAY MOVE INTO WEST UPPER MI...                   
INCLUDING KCMX...BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON AS THE LOW APPROACHES. THE            
DEFORMATION ZONE PCPN...MODERATE TO HEAVY AT TIMES...WILL SLOWLY                
EDGE EASTWARD THROUGH WEST INTO CENTRAL UPPER MI WEDNESDAY EVENING              
WITH MVFR CIGS/VSBYS.                                                           
&&                                                                              
.MARINE (FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FCST ISSUANCE)...                           
S WINDS IN THE 15 TO 25 KT RANGE WILL CONTINUE LATE THIS AFTERNOON              
AS SFC HIGH MOVES E OF THE AREA AND LOW PRES OVER THE DAKOTAS SHIFTS            
EAST. WINDS WILL INCREASE A BIT MORE TONIGHT AS INCREASE IN                     
NOCTURNAL LOW LEVEL JET OCCURS. EXPECT WINDS TO 30 KT INTO SUNDAY               
WITH A FEW GALE FORCE GUSTS.                                                    
&&                                                                              
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE                                         
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
UPDATE...JLB                                                                    
SHORT TERM...MZ                                                                 
LONG TERM...JLA                                                                 
AVIATION...JLB                                                                  
MARINE...MZ                                                                     
</pre> mi                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
1020 PM EDT SAT SEP 29 2007                                                     
.UPDATE...                                                                      
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDESTORMS SUPPORTED BY STRONG BAND OF                   
305K-310K ISENTROPIC LIFT...50-55 KT SW INFLOW TOWARD THE 800-700 MB            
FRONT...AND A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH WERE LIFTING STEADILY ENE                   
THROUGH UPPER MI. SOME REDEVELOPMENT ON THE SW EDGE HAS BEEN                    
OVSERVED AND A FEW ADDITIONAL SHRA/TSRA WERE NOTED OVER CNTRL WI.               
MUCAPE VALUES TO AROUND 500 J/KG WITH 10C DEWPOINTS IN THE 800-750              
MB LAYER...PER TAMDAR SOUNDINGS...WAS ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SOME TSRA               
WITH BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS. RADAR/SATELLITE TRENDS AND 00Z NAM/RUC              
ISENTROPIC PROGS SUGGEST THAT THE PCPN BAND WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT               
ENE EVEN IF ADDITIONAL SHRA/TSRA DEVELOPING ON THE BACK EDGE OF THE             
BAND SLOW ITS PROGRESS.                                                         
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT AND SUN)...                                                
EARLY AFTERNOON WV LOOP SHOWING S/WV THAT WAS OVER MN EARLIER TODAY             
NOW MOVING INTO NORTHERN WI. REGIONAL RADAR COMPOSITE CONTINUING TO             
SHOW SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MOVING ACROSS THE                
ARROWHEAD OF MN AND ACROSS CENTRAL WI AHEAD OF THE S/WV. THIS PRECIP            
WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE INTO A DRIER AIRMASS ACROSS UPPER MI...BUT THE            
AIRMASS WILL CONTINUE TO MOISTEN OVER TIME. IT APPEARS BEST CHANCE              
OF RAINFALL ACROSS THE AREA WILL BE DURING THE EVENING HOURS TO                 
SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. THIS WILL BE THE PERIOD WHEN BEST ISENTROPIC            
LIFT ALIGNS WITH ADDED LIFT FROM PASSING S/WV.  WILL CONTINUE TO                
TAPER POPS FROM HI CHANCE OVER LAKE SUPERIOR TO NO POPS IN THE SOUTH.           
AFTER S/WV MOVES THROUGH NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF FORCING WILL BE LEFT            
TO SQUEEZE OUT PRECIPITATION AS BEST ISENTROPIC LIFT AND WARM                   
ADVECTION WILL SHIFT NORTHWARD. AFTER MIDNIGHT...HIGHEST POPS WILL              
BE REFOCUSED OUT WEST CLOSER TO THE MAIN UPPER TROF WHERE                       
ADDITIONAL WEAK S/WV WILL BE RIPPLING NORTHEASTWARD IN FAST                     
SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER FLOW. AS UPPER TROF GETS CLOSER TO THE AREA ON              
SUNDAY EXPECT POPS TO INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGHOUT THE DAY.            
MOISTURE WILL HAVE INCREASED SIGNIFICANTLY BY THEN WITH PWS IN                  
EXCESS OF 1.5 INCHES.                                                           
STILL LOOKS LIKE A BREEZY DAY ON SUNDAY WITH 35-40KT AVBL TO BE                 
TAPPED 1-2KFT AGL AS MIXED LAYER BUILDS. THE NCNTRL AND ERN FCST                
AREA SHOULD BE ESPECIALLY FAVORED FOR WINDY CONDITIONS IN THIS SRLY             
FLOW SITUATION. HOWEVER...GRADIENT WILL BEGIN TO RELAX DURING THE               
AFTERNOON AS SURFACE TROF GETS CLOSER.                                          
.LONG TERM (SUN NIGHT THROUGH NEXT SAT)...                                      
UPPER AIR PATTERN VERY AMPLIFIED TO BEGIN THEN TRANSITIONS TO MORE              
OF A BROAD TROUGH IN THE WEST AND RIDGE IN THE EAST BY NEXT WEEKEND.            
TWO SHARP WELL DEFINED UPR LEVEL TROUGHS AFFECT THE UPR GREAT LAKES             
THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEK. LEADING SYSTEM IS DUE IN SUN NIGHT INTO             
MON IS WELL AGREED UPON AND SHOULD EXIT LATE MON AFTN/MON EVENING.              
00Z ECMWF PREFERRED FOR DETAILS. UPR LOW LIFTS INTO NORTHERN MN BY              
00Z MON WITH STRONG S WINDS ON FRONT SIDE OF TROUGH BRINGING UP                 
ABUNDANT MOISTURE AS EVIDENCED BY H85 DEWPOINTS TO +10C AND PWATS               
NEAR 1.75 INCHES WHICH IS APPROXIMATELY A WHOPPING 250 PCT OF                   
NORMAL. PVA AND H85 CONVERGENCE COMBINES WITH DEEP MOISTURE SOME                
SLIGHTLY ELEVATED INSTABILITY TO PRODUCE A LIKELY PERIOD OF SHOWERS.            
AS SYSTEM BEGINS TO OCCLUDE PSEUDO TROF OF WARM AIR ALOFT SHOWS UP              
LOOKING AT H7 THETA-E. THIS FEATURE WILL DRAG ACROSS THE EAST CWA ON            
MON SO LINGERING LIKELY POPS OVER THOSE AREAS ON MON MORNING. ONCE              
UPR LOW DEPARTS...A WEAK SFC TROUGH IS LEFT TO LINGER OVR THE AREA              
MON NIGHT INTO EARLY TUE. SETUP SEEMS LIKE IT FAVORS SOME FOG AFTER             
RAIN ENDS MON EVENING. LACK OF MIXING MAY ALLOW THE FOG TO STICK                
AROUND UNTIL MIXING LATER TUE.                                                  
SECOND UPR TROUGH FOLLOWS QUICKLY ON THE HEELS OF THE SUN NIGHT AND             
MON ONE. ECMWF AND CANADIAN PREFERRED AS GFS APPEARS A BIT TOO                  
STRONG. OVERALL THOUGH...GOOD AGREEMENT ON GENERAL IDEA WITH THIS               
SYSTEM TOO. QUICK MOVEMENT LEADS TO BEST CHANCES OF RAIN TUE NIGHT.             
00Z ECMWF INDICATES FRONTAL BOUNDARY TRIGGERING PCPN IS ALREADY                 
THROUGH CWA BY 12Z WED. ENDED PCPN A BIT QUICKER BASED ON LATEST                
MODEL TRENDS.                                                                   
TO CLOSE THE WEEK...WSW FLOW INCREASES IN RESPONSE TO TROUGH OVER               
WESTERN CONUS AND EAST COAST RIDGE. H5 HEIGHTS INTO THE 570-575DAM              
RANGE. HIGHS INTO THE 70S SEEM APPROPRIATE. ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE FOR               
THU/FRI INDICATES HIGHS IN THE LWR 70S. CONSIDERING THIS GUIDANCE IS            
BIASED TOWARD CLIMO AND THIS IS A LARGE DEPARTURE FM CLIMO...TEMPS              
COULD END UP REACHING NEAR 80. 80S CERTAINLY NOT UNHEARD OF FOR THIS            
TIME OF YEAR AS AN 80 DEGREE OR HIGHER READING HAS BEEN OBSERVED AT             
THE NWS OFFICE AS LATE AS OCT 17. QUICK GLANCE AT ENSEMBLES AND FAR             
REACHES OF ECMWF/GFS INDICATE A BRIEF BOUT OF COOLER WEATHER ON THE             
HORIZON DAYS 7-10. HOWEVER...THERE ARE ALSO INDICATIONS THAT WARMER             
WEATHER PATTERN SETS UP AGAIN INTO THE MIDDLE OF OCT.                           
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION (FOR THE 00Z TAF ISSUANCE)...                                         
A BAND OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS SUPPORTED BY 40-50 KT              
INLOW TOWARD A 850-700 MB WARM FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS UPPER MICHIGAN            
THIS EVENING AND LIFT NORTHEAST OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT. A BRIEF                  
PERIOD OF MVFR CONDITIONS IS POSSIBLE AS THE SHRA/TSRA MOVE THROUGH.            
LLWS CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST DURING TONIGHT WITH THE PRES            
GRADIENT REMAINING TIGHT AHEAD OF THE APPOACHING LOW PRESSURE                   
SYSTEM. OTHERWISE...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS AFTER THE SHRA/TSRA DEPART            
AFT 06Z. SURFACE HEATING WILL AID MIXING WITH SOUTH WIND GUSTS TO               
AROUND 25 KT EXPECTED. ADDITIONAL SHRA/TSRA MAY MOVE INTO WEST UPPER            
MICHIGAN...INCLUDING KCMX...BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON AS THE LOW                 
APPROACHES.                                                                     
&&                                                                              
.MARINE (FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FCST ISSUANCE)...                           
S WINDS IN THE 15 TO 25 KT RANGE WILL CONTINUE LATE THIS AFTERNOON              
AS SFC HIGH MOVES E OF THE AREA AND LOW PRES OVER THE DAKOTAS SHIFTS            
EAST. WINDS WILL INCREASE A BIT MORE TONIGHT AS INCREASE IN                     
NOCTURNAL LOW LEVEL JET OCCURS. EXPECT WINDS TO 30 KT INTO SUNDAY               
WITH A FEW GALE FORCE GUSTS.                                                    
&&                                                                              
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE                                         
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHORT TERM...MZ                                                                 
LONG TERM...JLA                                                                 
AVIATION/MARINE...MZ                                                            
</pre> mi                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI                                     
1256 PM EDT SAT SEP 29 2007                                                     
.AVIATION...                                                                    
SOUTHEAST FLOW OFF OF LAKE ERIE HAS ALLOWED A BATCH OF LOW CLOUDS               
(3000-4000 FEET) TO DEVELOP OVER DETROIT TAFS. THESE CLOUDS SHOULD              
QUICKLY MIX OUT EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.                                           
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES WILL SLOWLY                 
SLIDE TO THE EAST...ALLOWING MID/HIGH CLOUDS TO SPELL OVER INTO                 
LOWER MICHIGAN. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AS THE LOW                  
LEVELS (700 MB AND BELOW) REMAIN DRY THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.                    
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 348 AM EDT SAT SEP 29 2007                            
SHORT TERM...                                                                   
SURFACE RIDGE OVERHEAD SLOWLY SLIDING OFF TO THE EAST                           
TODAY...WHILE AT 500 MB A RIDGE TO BE PLANTED OVERHEAD.                         
AIR MASS OVERHEAD PRETTY DRY TODAY...EXCEPTING A MODEST DEGREE OF               
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AFFECTING THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS LOW              
LEVEL MOISTURE AIDED BY EASTERLY COMPONENT OFF OF THE GREAT LAKES.              
WILL CONTINUE THE MENTION OF FOG UNTIL AROUND 13Z. THEREAFTER...                
ABUNDANT MOISTURE TODAY WITH LOW TO MID LEVEL SUBSIDENCE.                       
HOWEVER...HIGH CLOUDS WILL LIKELY BEGIN SPREADING IN FROM THE WEST              
BY EVENING ESPECIALLY NORTH AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE                   
TROUGH. SOME HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS INCREASE SUPPORTED BY MODEL                  
SOUNDINGS...ESPECIALLY GFS. BELIEVE THE NAM INDICATIONS OF 4 TO 5K              
MOISTURE IN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA BY 18Z TO BE OVERDONE...NOT              
SUPPORTED BY OTHER MODELS INCLUDING THE LATEST RUC.                             
TEMPERATURES TODAY TRENDING A TAD WARMER THAN YESTERDAY ESPECIALLY              
AWAY FROM THE GREAT LAKES...AS LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION BEGINS IN               
RETURN FLOW.                                                                    
LONG TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY                                              
TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE TO THE EAST WHICH WILL               
ALLOW FOR AN INCREASING RETURN FLOW OF WARM SOUTHERLY AIR. THERE MAY            
BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF BROKEN MID LEVEL CLOUDS TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY               
ACROSS THE NORTH AS A WEAKENING CONVECTIVE INDUCED VORT MAX FROM THE            
MIDWEST PASSES ACROSS THE AREA AROUND THE UPPER RIDGE...OTHER WISE              
SKIES WILL BE CLEAR. EXPECT SURFACE GRADIENT TO KEEP WINDS UP                   
TONIGHT SO RADIATIONAL COOLING SHOULD NOT BE AS PRONOUNCED AS                   
LAST NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S. WITH PLENTY OF                
SUNSHINE...LOW DEW POINTS AND WARM AIR ADVECTION SUNDAY HIGHS WILL              
REACH THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S.                                                 
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...NAM HAS COME MORE IN LINE WITH GFS WITH               
PACIFIC NORTHWEST SHORTWAVE CLOSING OVER THE MIDWEST AND THEN                   
LIFTING ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN.  THIS WILL DRIVE A COLD                 
FRONT THROUGH THE AREA LATE SUNDAY NIGHT/MON MORNING WITH DECENT                
LIFT BUT MARGINAL INSTABILITY. EXPECT NARROW LINE OF                            
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE FOLLOWED BY A BREAK...THEN    
ANOTHER CHANCE OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY AFTERNOON AS THE 500MB           
COLD POOL CROSSES THE AREA DURING MAX HEATING OF THE DAY.                       
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...UPPER RIDGING ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF             
OF THE NATION WILL KEEP THE AREA IN A WARM FLOW REGIME WITH ANOTHER             
SHORTWAVE EJECTING OUT OF THE WESTERN TROUGH ACROSS THE AREA LATE               
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY WITH ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND                 
THUNDERSTORMS.                                                                  
MARINE...                                                                       
EASTERLY COMPONENT WINDS EARLY THIS MORNING WILL MAINTAIN WAVES 3 TO            
5 FEET OVER THE LAKE HURON NEARSHORE WATERS. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY               
CONDITIONS ARE AGAIN LIKELY FOR PARTS OF THIS SAME AREA LATE SUNDAY             
THROUGH MONDAY IN INCREASING SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW. THE NEXT                  
CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY AS A              
COLD FRONT MOVES IN.                                                            
&&                                                                              
.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
MI...NONE.                                                                      
LAKE HURON...NONE.                                                              
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.                                                           
MI WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.                                                  
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
AVIATION.....SF                                                                 
SHORT TERM...DWD                                                                
LONG TERM....DRC                                                                
MARINE.......DWD                                                                
YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE            
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).                                    
</pre> mi                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
1100 AM EDT SAT SEP 29 2007                                                     
.UPDATE...                                                                      
MORNING UPPER AIR ANALYSIS SHOWING TROTROFFING OVER THE WESTERN U.S.            
WITH DOWNSTREAM RIDGING IN THE EAST WITH BROAD SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW               
ACROSS MIDSECTION OF COUNTRY. WV IMAGERY SHOWING SEVERAL S/WVS                  
EMBEDDED IN THIS FAST FLOW. ONE WELL DEFINED S/WV IS CURRENTLY OVER             
MN AND CONTINUES TO LIFT NEWD TOWARDS WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR.                    
ATMOSPHERE STILL QUITE DRY ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA BUT MORE                     
SIGNIFICANT MOISTENING IS BEGINNING TO OCCUR ACROSS THE WEST AND AS             
MN S/WV SKIRTS WESTERN AREAS LATER TODAY ONGOING SLGT/CHC POPS                  
APPEAR ON TRACK...ESPECIALLY BASED ON RECENT DLH RADAR TRENDS WITH              
WEAKENING SHRA ACTIVITY OVER FAR WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR AND MORE                 
SHRAS/TSRAS LIFTING NWD ACROSS NW WI.                                           
LATEST VIS IMAGERY AND VIEW OUT THE WINDOW SHOWING EARLY MORNING LOW            
CLOUDS/FOG OVER NORTH CENTRAL AREAS CONTINUING TO BREAK UP AND TREND            
SHOULD CONTINUE INTO THE AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH EXPECT ANY SUNSHINE TO            
BE FILTERED INCOMING HIGHER CLOUD CANOPY.                                       
CURRENT TEMPS CURRENTLY IN THE LOWER 50S TO AROUND 60 AND WITH                  
CONTINUED WARM ADVECTION THROUGHOUT THE DAY AND AT LEAST SOME                   
SUNSHINEHIGHS IN THE MID 60S TO AROUND 70 LOOK REASONABLE.                      
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION (751 AM EDT SAT SEP 29 2007)...                            
MAIN FCST ISSUES ARE PCPN CHANCES TODAY THRU MON. AFTER THE SUMMER              
DROUGHT...ACTIVE PATTERN THAT SET UP THIS MONTH...AND HAS THIS SEPT             
KNOCKING ON THE DOOR OF BEING THE WETTEST SEPT ON RECORD AT THE                 
OFFICE...WILL CONTINUE RIGHT INTO THE NEW MONTH. WETTEST SEPT ON                
RECORD WAS IN 1968 WITH 7.60 INCHES. CURRENT SEPT TOTAL RANKS NUMBER            
2 AT 7.27 INCHES.                                                               
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW A SHARP TROF JUST INLAND              
OF THE W COAST WITH DOWNSTREAM RIDGE EXTENDING N THRU THE                       
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO MANITOBA/ONTARIO. ENERGY CONSOLIDATING IN THE             
BASE OF THE TROF OVER CA/NV WILL BE THE MAIN FEATURE OF INTEREST AS             
IT LIFTS NE...REACHING THE WRN GREAT LAKES REGION MON. AHEAD OF THAT            
FEATURE...DEVELOPING DEEP LAYERED SW FLOW/WAA/MOISTURE ADVECTION AND            
WEAK SHORTWAVES LIFTING NE INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES WILL              
BRING PCPN CHANCES. WEAK SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY HEADING NE THRU THE                
DAKOTAS AND 60KT LOW-LEVEL JET PER WOOD LAKE PROFILER HAVE SPARKED              
SHRA/TSRA IN MN.                                                                
WAA REGIME IS ALREADY UNDERWAY ACROSS THE FCST AREA AND WILL                    
CONTINUE TODAY THOUGH THE STRONGEST WAA WILL BE FOCUSED TO THE NW OF            
HERE. THIS WOULD SUGGEST BEST OPPORTUNITY FOR CONVECTION TODAY WILL             
ALSO BE NW OF THE FCST AREA. HOWEVER...SHORTWAVE THAT HAS TRIGGERED             
CONVECTION OVER NEBRASKA DURING THE NIGHT WILL BE LIFTING NE INTO               
THE UPPER LAKES REGION IN THE AFTN. SUBSTANTIAL MOISTENING IS                   
INDICATED BY THE MODELS OVER WRN UPPER MI WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER               
INCREASING FROM ABOUT 0.5 INCHES THIS MORNING TO NEARLY 1.5 INCHES              
BY EVENING. AS WOULD BE EXPECTED...THERE IS ALSO AN IMPRESSIVE                  
INCREASE IN 850MB THETA-E. FINALLY...DECENT MOIST ISENTROPIC ASCENT             
IS NOTED ON THE 305K AND 310K SFCS...ESPECIALLY OVER THE FAR W THIS             
AFTN. SO...INHERITED FCST APPEARS ON TRACK WITH PCPN MENTION OVER               
THE W. HOWEVER...WILL UP POPS INTO THE CHC CATEGORY GIVEN FAVORABLE             
FACTORS DISCUSSED AND SHIFT SLIGHT CHC A BIT EWD TOWARD THE CNTRL               
FCST AREA.                                                                      
ISENTROPIC ASCENT SHIFTS E AND N TONIGHT AND STRENGTHENS IN                     
CONJUNCTION WITH NOCTURNAL INCREASE IN LOW-LEVEL JET (45-55KT ARE               
INDICATED AT 850MB). POSITION OF STRONGEST ASCENT SUGGESTS NRN UPPER            
MI AND ESPECIALLY LAKE SUPERIOR WILL SEE BEST OPPORTUNITY FOR                   
CONVECTION. POPS WILL THUS BE ORIENTED FROM LOWEST S (SLIGHT CHC) TO            
HIGHEST N (HIGH CHC). WITH MUCAPE RUNNING ONLY A FEW HUNDRED J/KG...            
NOT EXPECTING ANY SVR STORMS.                                                   
WITH 850MB THERMAL RIDGE INTO THE AREA SUN...ISENTROPIC ASCENT WILL             
DIMINISH OVER THE FCST AREA. SO...THERE SHOULD BE A BREAK IN THE                
PCPN CHC SUN...MAINLY OVER THE E HALF OF THE FCST AREA. OVER THE                
WRN FCST AREA...THERE ARE INDICATIONS THAT THERE WILL BE ANOTHER                
WEAK SHORTWAVE LIFTING NE TOWARD WRN LAKE SUPERIOR AHEAD OF THE MAIN            
SYSTEM. GIVEN UNCERTAINTY IN EXACT TIMING...WILL HOLD ONTO PCPN                 
CHANCES THRU THE DAY OVER THE W THOUGH PCPN POTENTIAL SHOULD                    
INCREASE AS THE DAY PROGRESSES WITH MAIN SYSTEM MOVING CLOSER.                  
SHOULD BE A BREEZY/WINDY DAY WITH 35-40KT AVBL TO BE TAPPED 1-2KFT              
AGL AS MIXED LAYER BUILDS. THE NCNTRL AND ERN FCST AREA SHOULD BE               
ESPECIALLY FAVORED FOR WINDY CONDITIONS IN THIS SRLY FLOW SITUATION.            
LOCATIONS LIKE KSAW...NEWBERRY AND GRAND MARAIS WILL LIKELY SEE                 
HIGHEST WINDS. WIND ADVY CRITERIA MAY BE MET...BUT AT THIS POINT...             
IT SHOULD BE LOCALIZED AND NOT REQUIRE HEADLINES.                               
MAIN SYSTEM (A COMPACT CLOSED MIDLEVEL LOW) WILL ROLL FROM NRN                  
IA/SRN MN SUN EVENING TO CNTRL LAKE MI MON MORNING. EXPECT                      
INCREASING PCPN CHANCES SPREADING W TO E SUN NIGHT AS AREA OF DEEP              
LAYER FORCING SWEEPS OVER THE FCST AREA THOUGH IT IS NOTED THAT THE             
FORCING DOES TEND TO WEAKEN WITH TIME. NONETHELESS...INHERITED FCST             
OF LIKELY POPS OVER ALL BUT THE E IS STILL WARRANTED. SYSTEM WILL               
CONTINUE TO ROLL ENE MON...REACHING NRN LAKE HURON BY MON EVENING.              
SO...WILL CONTINUE WITH THE IDEA OF TRENDING POPS DOWNWARD MON AS               
SYSTEM MOVES AWAY. SINCE MUCAPE IS NEVER REALLY MORE THAN A FEW                 
HUNDRED J/KG DURING THIS TIME FRAME...NOT EXPECTING SVR STORMS.                 
AFTER A BRIEF BREAK IN PCPN CHANCES PART OF MON NIGHT AND TUE...                
ACTIVE PATTERN WILL CONTINUE. ECMWF/GFS TIMING OF NEXT PROGRESSIVE              
SHORTWAVE TROF IS VERY SIMILAR WITH BOTH SHOWING IT REACHING THE WRN            
GREAT LAKES TUE NIGHT. TEMPTED TO BUMP POPS INTO THE LIKELY CATEGORY            
GIVEN AGREEMENT OF VARIOUS MODELS AND RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY.                   
HOWEVER...SINCE THIS SYSTEM IS 4 DAYS OUT INTO MODEL RUN...WILL HOLD            
OFF FOR THIS FCST ISSUANCE.                                                     
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION (FOR THE 18Z TAF ISSUANCE)...                                         
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD FOR BOTH SITES.               
LLWS CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON WITH                       
APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEEPENS. AS THIS SYSTEM                         
APPROACHED...EXPECT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO                    
INCREASE AFTER 6Z...BUT BEFORE THEN...DRIER AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THE             
RETREATING RDG OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES TO INHIBIT PRECIPITATION            
FOR MUCH OF DAY. HOWEVER...CANNOT DISCOUNT AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM             
IMPACTING KCMX AFTER 20Z...BUT PROBABILITY FOR THIS IS QUITE LOW AND            
THEREFORE HAVE LEFT IT OUT OF THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME.                        
&&                                                                              
.MARINE (FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FCST ISSUANCE)...                           
S TO SE WINDS ON THE INCREASE TODAY AS THE HIGH MOVES E OF THE AREA             
AND LOW PRES OVER THE DAKOTAS SHIFTS EAST. AS A RESULT...20 TO 30 KT            
WINDS TO BE COMMON ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR THROUGH SUN AFTERNOON. THERE            
IS A POTENTIAL FOR GALE FORCE WIND GUSTS THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE              
EAST AS 0Z NAM SHOWING 925 MB WINDS TO 35 KT...ALTHOUGH GFS NOT AS              
STRONG AT THIS LEVEL. NAM EVEN STRONGER ON SUN WITH 40 TO 50 KT                 
WINDS AT 925 MB BY 18Z...BUT AGAIN GFS NOT AS STRONG. ENOUGH                    
UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS TO WARRANT A MENTION OF POSSIBLE GALE FORCE               
WINDS GUSTS FOR BOTH TODAY AND SUN WITHIN THE EAST HALF OF THE                  
LAKE.                                                                           
&&                                                                              
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE                                         
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
UPDATE...MZ                                                                     
PREV DISCUSSION...ROLFSON                                                       
AVIATION...RJT                                                                  
MARINE...RJT                                                                    
</pre> mi                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
751 AM EDT SAT SEP 29 2007                                                      
...UPDATED FOR 12Z TAF...                                                       
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
MAIN FCST ISSUES ARE PCPN CHANCES TODAY THRU MON. AFTER THE SUMMER              
DROUGHT...ACTIVE PATTERN THAT SET UP THIS MONTH...AND HAS THIS SEPT             
KNOCKING ON THE DOOR OF BEING THE WETTEST SEPT ON RECORD AT THE                 
OFFICE...WILL CONTINUE RIGHT INTO THE NEW MONTH. WETTEST SEPT ON                
RECORD WAS IN 1968 WITH 7.60 INCHES. CURRENT SEPT TOTAL RANKS NUMBER            
2 AT 7.27 INCHES.                                                               
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW A SHARP TROF JUST INLAND              
OF THE W COAST WITH DOWNSTREAM RIDGE EXTENDING N THRU THE                       
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO MANITOBA/ONTARIO. ENERGY CONSOLIDATING IN THE             
BASE OF THE TROF OVER CA/NV WILL BE THE MAIN FEATURE OF INTEREST AS             
IT LIFTS NE...REACHING THE WRN GREAT LAKES REGION MON. AHEAD OF THAT            
FEATURE...DEVELOPING DEEP LAYERED SW FLOW/WAA/MOISTURE ADVECTION AND            
WEAK SHORTWAVES LIFTING NE INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES WILL              
BRING PCPN CHANCES. WEAK SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY HEADING NE THRU THE                
DAKOTAS AND 60KT LOW-LEVEL JET PER WOOD LAKE PROFILER HAVE SPARKED              
SHRA/TSRA IN MN.                                                                
WAA REGIME IS ALREADY UNDERWAY ACROSS THE FCST AREA AND WILL                    
CONTINUE TODAY THOUGH THE STRONGEST WAA WILL BE FOCUSED TO THE NW OF            
HERE. THIS WOULD SUGGEST BEST OPPORTUNITY FOR CONVECTION TODAY WILL             
ALSO BE NW OF THE FCST AREA. HOWEVER...SHORTWAVE THAT HAS TRIGGERED             
CONVECTION OVER NEBRASKA DURING THE NIGHT WILL BE LIFTING NE INTO               
THE UPPER LAKES REGION IN THE AFTN. SUBSTANTIAL MOISTENING IS                   
INDICATED BY THE MODELS OVER WRN UPPER MI WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER               
INCREASING FROM ABOUT 0.5 INCHES THIS MORNING TO NEARLY 1.5 INCHES              
BY EVENING. AS WOULD BE EXPECTED...THERE IS ALSO AN IMPRESSIVE                  
INCREASE IN 850MB THETA-E. FINALLY...DECENT MOIST ISENTROPIC ASCENT             
IS NOTED ON THE 305K AND 310K SFCS...ESPECIALLY OVER THE FAR W THIS             
AFTN. SO...INHERITED FCST APPEARS ON TRACK WITH PCPN MENTION OVER               
THE W. HOWEVER...WILL UP POPS INTO THE CHC CATEGORY GIVEN FAVORABLE             
FACTORS DISCUSSED AND SHIFT SLIGHT CHC A BIT EWD TOWARD THE CNTRL               
FCST AREA.                                                                      
ISENTROPIC ASCENT SHIFTS E AND N TONIGHT AND STRENGTHENS IN                     
CONJUNCTION WITH NOCTURNAL INCREASE IN LOW-LEVEL JET (45-55KT ARE               
INDICATED AT 850MB). POSITION OF STRONGEST ASCENT SUGGESTS NRN UPPER            
MI AND ESPECIALLY LAKE SUPERIOR WILL SEE BEST OPPORTUNITY FOR                   
CONVECTION. POPS WILL THUS BE ORIENTED FROM LOWEST S (SLIGHT CHC) TO            
HIGHEST N (HIGH CHC). WITH MUCAPE RUNNING ONLY A FEW HUNDRED J/KG...            
NOT EXPECTING ANY SVR STORMS.                                                   
WITH 850MB THERMAL RIDGE INTO THE AREA SUN...ISENTROPIC ASCENT WILL             
DIMINISH OVER THE FCST AREA. SO...THERE SHOULD BE A BREAK IN THE                
PCPN CHC SUN...MAINLY OVER THE E HALF OF THE FCST AREA. OVER THE                
WRN FCST AREA...THERE ARE INDICATIONS THAT THERE WILL BE ANOTHER                
WEAK SHORTWAVE LIFTING NE TOWARD WRN LAKE SUPERIOR AHEAD OF THE MAIN            
SYSTEM. GIVEN UNCERTAINTY IN EXACT TIMING...WILL HOLD ONTO PCPN                 
CHANCES THRU THE DAY OVER THE W THOUGH PCPN POTENTIAL SHOULD                    
INCREASE AS THE DAY PROGRESSES WITH MAIN SYSTEM MOVING CLOSER.                  
SHOULD BE A BREEZY/WINDY DAY WITH 35-40KT AVBL TO BE TAPPED 1-2KFT              
AGL AS MIXED LAYER BUILDS. THE NCNTRL AND ERN FCST AREA SHOULD BE               
ESPECIALLY FAVORED FOR WINDY CONDITIONS IN THIS SRLY FLOW SITUATION.            
LOCATIONS LIKE KSAW...NEWBERRY AND GRAND MARAIS WILL LIKELY SEE                 
HIGHEST WINDS. WIND ADVY CRITERIA MAY BE MET...BUT AT THIS POINT...             
IT SHOULD BE LOCALIZED AND NOT REQUIRE HEADLINES.                               
MAIN SYSTEM (A COMPACT CLOSED MIDLEVEL LOW) WILL ROLL FROM NRN                  
IA/SRN MN SUN EVENING TO CNTRL LAKE MI MON MORNING. EXPECT                      
INCREASING PCPN CHANCES SPREADING W TO E SUN NIGHT AS AREA OF DEEP              
LAYER FORCING SWEEPS OVER THE FCST AREA THOUGH IT IS NOTED THAT THE             
FORCING DOES TEND TO WEAKEN WITH TIME. NONETHELESS...INHERITED FCST             
OF LIKELY POPS OVER ALL BUT THE E IS STILL WARRANTED. SYSTEM WILL               
CONTINUE TO ROLL ENE MON...REACHING NRN LAKE HURON BY MON EVENING.              
SO...WILL CONTINUE WITH THE IDEA OF TRENDING POPS DOWNWARD MON AS               
SYSTEM MOVES AWAY. SINCE MUCAPE IS NEVER REALLY MORE THAN A FEW                 
HUNDRED J/KG DURING THIS TIME FRAME...NOT EXPECTING SVR STORMS.                 
AFTER A BRIEF BREAK IN PCPN CHANCES PART OF MON NIGHT AND TUE...                
ACTIVE PATTERN WILL CONTINUE. ECMWF/GFS TIMING OF NEXT PROGRESSIVE              
SHORTWAVE TROF IS VERY SIMILAR WITH BOTH SHOWING IT REACHING THE WRN            
GREAT LAKES TUE NIGHT. TEMPTED TO BUMP POPS INTO THE LIKELY CATEGORY            
GIVEN AGREEMENT OF VARIOUS MODELS AND RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY.                   
HOWEVER...SINCE THIS SYSTEM IS 4 DAYS OUT INTO MODEL RUN...WILL HOLD            
OFF FOR THIS FCST ISSUANCE.                                                     
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION (FOR THE 12Z TAF ISSUANCE)...                                         
LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS AREA OF LOW CLOUDS OVER CENTRAL                  
UPPER MICHIGAN...MOVING E TOWARD KSAW. FOG MAY ALSO BE POSSIBLE AS              
UPSLOPE CONDITIONS REMAIN IN PLACE. LIFR CONDITIONS ASSOCIATED WITH             
THE STRATUS SHOULD IMPROVE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS SOUTH WINDS               
ABOVE THE BOUNDARY LAYER BEGIN TO MIX DOWN. OTHERWISE...VFR                     
CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST FOR BOTH              
SITES. LLWS CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON WITH                
APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEEPENS. AS THIS SYSTEM                         
APPROACHED...EXPECT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO                    
INCREASE AFTER 6Z...BUT BEFORE THEN...DRIER AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THE             
RETREATING RDG OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES TO INHIBIT PRECIPITATION            
FOR MUCH OF DAY. HOWEVER...CANNOT DISCOUNT AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM             
IMPACTING KCMX AFTER 20Z...BUT PROBABILITY FOR THIS IS QUITE LOW AND            
THEREFORE HAVE LEFT IT OUT OF THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME.                        
&&                                                                              
.MARINE (FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FCST ISSUANCE)...                           
S TO SE WINDS ON THE INCREASE TODAY AS THE HIGH MOVES E OF THE AREA             
AND LOW PRES OVER THE DAKOTAS SHIFTS EAST. AS A RESULT...20 TO 30 KT            
WINDS TO BE COMMON ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR THROUGH SUN AFTERNOON. THERE            
IS A POTENTIAL FOR GALE FORCE WIND GUSTS THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE              
EAST AS 0Z NAM SHOWING 925 MB WINDS TO 35 KT...ALTHOUGH GFS NOT AS              
STRONG AT THIS LEVEL. NAM EVEN STRONGER ON SUN WITH 40 TO 50 KT                 
WINDS AT 925 MB BY 18Z...BUT AGAIN GFS NOT AS STRONG. ENOUGH                    
UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS TO WARRANT A MENTION OF POSSIBLE GALE FORCE               
WINDS GUSTS FOR BOTH TODAY AND SUN WITHIN THE EAST HALF OF THE                  
LAKE.                                                                           
&&                                                                              
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE                                         
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
DISCUSSION...ROLFSON                                                            
AVIATION...RJT                                                                  
MARINE...RJT                                                                    
</pre> mi                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI                                     
738 AM EDT SAT SEP 29 2007                                                      
.AVIATION...                                                                    
FOG/MIST HAS FAILED TO MATERIALIZE AT ANY TAF SITE OVERNIGHT...SO               
SUCH IS NOT EXPECTED ANY MORE THIS MORNING WITH SUNRISE/MIXING AT               
HAND. ALSO...EVEN THE LATEST NAM IS NOW SHOWING LITTLE SUPPORT                  
FOR DIURNAL CUMULUS TODAY. WITH DRY AIR IN LOW THROUGH MID LEVELS               
IN PLACE THROUGH TONIGHT...EXPECT LITTLE MORE THAN CIRRUS                       
SPILLING INTO AREA FROM THE WEST AHEAD OF ADVANCING VORTICITY                   
MAXIMUM/SHORTWAVE TROUGH.                                                       
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 348 AM EDT SAT SEP 29 2007                            
SHORT TERM...SURFACE RIDGE OVERHEAD SLOWLY SLIDING OFF TO THE EAST TODAY...WHILE
AT 500 MB A RIDGE TO BE PLANTED OVERHEAD.                                       
AIR MASS OVERHEAD PRETTY DRY TODAY...EXCEPTING A MODEST DEGREE OF               
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AFFECTING THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS LOW              
LEVEL MOISTURE AIDED BY EASTERLY COMPONENT OFF OF THE GREAT LAKES.              
WILL CONTINUE THE MENTION OF FOG UNTIL AROUND 13Z. THEREAFTER...                
ABUNDANT MOISTURE TODAY WITH LOW TO MID LEVEL SUBSIDENCE.                       
HOWEVER...HIGH CLOUDS WILL LIKELY BEGIN SPREADING IN FROM THE WEST              
BY EVENING ESPECIALLY NORTH AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE                   
TROUGH. SOME HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS INCREASE SUPPORTED BY MODEL                  
SOUNDINGS...ESPECIALLY GFS. BELIEVE THE NAM INDICATIONS OF 4 TO 5K              
MOISTURE IN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA BY 18Z TO BE OVERDONE...NOT              
SUPPORTED BY OTHER MODELS INCLUDING THE LATEST RUC.                             
TEMPERATURES TODAY TRENDING A TAD WARMER THAN YESTERDAY ESPECIALLY              
AWAY FROM THE GREAT LAKES...AS LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION BEGINS IN               
RETURN FLOW.                                                                    
LONG TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY                                              
TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE TO THE EAST WHICH WILL               
ALLOW FOR AN INCREASING RETURN FLOW OF WARM SOUTHERLY AIR. THERE MAY            
BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF BROKEN MID LEVEL CLOUDS TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY               
ACROSS THE NORTH AS A WEAKENING CONVECTIVE INDUCED VORT MAX FROM THE            
MIDWEST PASSES ACROSS THE AREA AROUND THE UPPER RIDGE...OTHER WISE              
SKIES WILL BE CLEAR. EXPECT SURFACE GRADIENT TO KEEP WINDS UP                   
TONIGHT SO RADIATIONAL COOLING SHOULD NOT BE AS PRONOUNCED AS                   
LAST NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S. WITH PLENTY OF                
SUNSHINE...LOW DEW POINTS AND WARM AIR ADVECTION SUNDAY HIGHS WILL              
REACH THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S.                                                 
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...NAM HAS COME MORE IN LINE WITH GFS WITH               
PACIFIC NORTHWEST SHORTWAVE CLOSING OVER THE MIDWEST AND THEN                   
LIFTING ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN.  THIS WILL DRIVE A COLD                 
FRONT THROUGH THE AREA LATE SUNDAY NIGHT/MON MORNING WITH DECENT                
LIFT BUT MARGINAL INSTABILITY. EXPECT NARROW LINE OF                            
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE FOLLOWED BY A BREAK...THEN    
ANOTHER CHANCE OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY AFTERNOON AS THE 500MB           
COLD POOL CROSSES THE AREA DURING MAX HEATING OF THE DAY.                       
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...UPPER RIDGING ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF             
OF THE NATION WILL KEEP THE AREA IN A WARM FLOW REGIME WITH ANOTHER             
SHORTWAVE EJECTING OUT OF THE WESTERN TROUGH ACROSS THE AREA LATE               
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY WITH ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND                 
THUNDERSTORMS.                                                                  
MARINE...                                                                       
EASTERLY COMPONENT WINDS EARLY THIS MORNING WILL MAINTAIN WAVES 3 TO            
5 FEET OVER THE LAKE HURON NEARSHORE WATERS. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY               
CONDITIONS ARE AGAIN LIKELY FOR PARTS OF THIS SAME AREA LATE SUNDAY             
THROUGH MONDAY IN INCREASING SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW. THE NEXT                  
CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY AS A              
COLD FRONT MOVES IN.                                                            
&&                                                                              
.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
MI...NONE.                                                                      
LAKE HURON...NONE.                                                              
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.                                                           
MI WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.                                                  
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
AVIATION.....DWD                                                                
SHORT TERM...DWD                                                                
LONG TERM....DRC                                                                
MARINE.......DWD                                                                
YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE            
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).                                    
</pre> mi                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
430 AM EDT SAT SEP 29 2007                                                      
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
MAIN FCST ISSUES ARE PCPN CHANCES TODAY THRU MON. AFTER THE SUMMER              
DROUGHT...ACTIVE PATTERN THAT SET UP THIS MONTH...AND HAS THIS SEPT             
KNOCKING ON THE DOOR OF BEING THE WETTEST SEPT ON RECORD AT THE                 
OFFICE...WILL CONTINUE RIGHT INTO THE NEW MONTH. WETTEST SEPT ON                
RECORD WAS IN 1968 WITH 7.60 INCHES. CURRENT SEPT TOTAL RANKS NUMBER            
2 AT 7.27 INCHES.                                                               
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW A SHARP TROF JUST INLAND              
OF THE W COAST WITH DOWNSTREAM RIDGE EXTENDING N THRU THE                       
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO MANITOBA/ONTARIO. ENERGY CONSOLIDATING IN THE             
BASE OF THE TROF OVER CA/NV WILL BE THE MAIN FEATURE OF INTEREST AS             
IT LIFTS NE...REACHING THE WRN GREAT LAKES REGION MON. AHEAD OF THAT            
FEATURE...DEVELOPING DEEP LAYERED SW FLOW/WAA/MOISTURE ADVECTION AND            
WEAK SHORTWAVES LIFTING NE INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES WILL              
BRING PCPN CHANCES. WEAK SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY HEADING NE THRU THE                
DAKOTAS AND 60KT LOW-LEVEL JET PER WOOD LAKE PROFILER HAVE SPARKED              
SHRA/TSRA IN MN.                                                                
WAA REGIME IS ALREADY UNDERWAY ACROSS THE FCST AREA AND WILL                    
CONTINUE TODAY THOUGH THE STRONGEST WAA WILL BE FOCUSED TO THE NW OF            
HERE. THIS WOULD SUGGEST BEST OPPORTUNITY FOR CONVECTION TODAY WILL             
ALSO BE NW OF THE FCST AREA. HOWEVER...SHORTWAVE THAT HAS TRIGGERED             
CONVECTION OVER NEBRASKA DURING THE NIGHT WILL BE LIFTING NE INTO               
THE UPPER LAKES REGION IN THE AFTN. SUBSTANTIAL MOISTENING IS                   
INDICATED BY THE MODELS OVER WRN UPPER MI WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER               
INCREASING FROM ABOUT 0.5 INCHES THIS MORNING TO NEARLY 1.5 INCHES              
BY EVENING. AS WOULD BE EXPECTED...THERE IS ALSO AN IMPRESSIVE                  
INCREASE IN 850MB THETA-E. FINALLY...DECENT MOIST ISENTROPIC ASCENT             
IS NOTED ON THE 305K AND 310K SFCS...ESPECIALLY OVER THE FAR W THIS             
AFTN. SO...INHERITED FCST APPEARS ON TRACK WITH PCPN MENTION OVER               
THE W. HOWEVER...WILL UP POPS INTO THE CHC CATEGORY GIVEN FAVORABLE             
FACTORS DISCUSSED AND SHIFT SLIGHT CHC A BIT EWD TOWARD THE CNTRL               
FCST AREA.                                                                      
ISENTROPIC ASCENT SHIFTS E AND N TONIGHT AND STRENGTHENS IN                     
CONJUNCTION WITH NOCTURNAL INCREASE IN LOW-LEVEL JET (45-55KT ARE               
INDICATED AT 850MB). POSITION OF STRONGEST ASCENT SUGGESTS NRN UPPER            
MI AND ESPECIALLY LAKE SUPERIOR WILL SEE BEST OPPORTUNITY FOR                   
CONVECTION. POPS WILL THUS BE ORIENTED FROM LOWEST S (SLIGHT CHC) TO            
HIGHEST N (HIGH CHC). WITH MUCAPE RUNNING ONLY A FEW HUNDRED J/KG...            
NOT EXPECTING ANY SVR STORMS.                                                   
WITH 850MB THERMAL RIDGE INTO THE AREA SUN...ISENTROPIC ASCENT WILL             
DIMINISH OVER THE FCST AREA. SO...THERE SHOULD BE A BREAK IN THE                
PCPN CHC SUN...MAINLY OVER THE E HALF OF THE FCST AREA. OVER THE                
WRN FCST AREA...THERE ARE INDICATIONS THAT THERE WILL BE ANOTHER                
WEAK SHORTWAVE LIFTING NE TOWARD WRN LAKE SUPERIOR AHEAD OF THE MAIN            
SYSTEM. GIVEN UNCERTAINTY IN EXACT TIMING...WILL HOLD ONTO PCPN                 
CHANCES THRU THE DAY OVER THE W THOUGH PCPN POTENTIAL SHOULD                    
INCREASE AS THE DAY PROGRESSES WITH MAIN SYSTEM MOVING CLOSER.                  
SHOULD BE A BREEZY/WINDY DAY WITH 35-40KT AVBL TO BE TAPPED 1-2KFT              
AGL AS MIXED LAYER BUILDS. THE NCNTRL AND ERN FCST AREA SHOULD BE               
ESPECIALLY FAVORED FOR WINDY CONDITIONS IN THIS SRLY FLOW SITUATION.            
LOCATIONS LIKE KSAW...NEWBERRY AND GRAND MARAIS WILL LIKELY SEE                 
HIGHEST WINDS. WIND ADVY CRITERIA MAY BE MET...BUT AT THIS POINT...             
IT SHOULD BE LOCALIZED AND NOT REQUIRE HEADLINES.                               
MAIN SYSTEM (A COMPACT CLOSED MIDLEVEL LOW) WILL ROLL FROM NRN                  
IA/SRN MN SUN EVENING TO CNTRL LAKE MI MON MORNING. EXPECT                      
INCREASING PCPN CHANCES SPREADING W TO E SUN NIGHT AS AREA OF DEEP              
LAYER FORCING SWEEPS OVER THE FCST AREA THOUGH IT IS NOTED THAT THE             
FORCING DOES TEND TO WEAKEN WITH TIME. NONETHELESS...INHERITED FCST             
OF LIKELY POPS OVER ALL BUT THE E IS STILL WARRANTED. SYSTEM WILL               
CONTINUE TO ROLL ENE MON...REACHING NRN LAKE HURON BY MON EVENING.              
SO...WILL CONTINUE WITH THE IDEA OF TRENDING POPS DOWNWARD MON AS               
SYSTEM MOVES AWAY. SINCE MUCAPE IS NEVER REALLY MORE THAN A FEW                 
HUNDRED J/KG DURING THIS TIME FRAME...NOT EXPECTING SVR STORMS.                 
AFTER A BRIEF BREAK IN PCPN CHANCES PART OF MON NIGHT AND TUE...                
ACTIVE PATTERN WILL CONTINUE. ECMWF/GFS TIMING OF NEXT PROGRESSIVE              
SHORTWAVE TROF IS VERY SIMILAR WITH BOTH SHOWING IT REACHING THE WRN            
GREAT LAKES TUE NIGHT. TEMPTED TO BUMP POPS INTO THE LIKELY CATEGORY            
GIVEN AGREEMENT OF VARIOUS MODELS AND RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY.                   
HOWEVER...SINCE THIS SYSTEM IS 4 DAYS OUT INTO MODEL RUN...WILL HOLD            
OFF FOR THIS FCST ISSUANCE.                                                     
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION (FOR THE 06Z TAF ISSUANCE)...                                         
UPSLOPE FLOW GENERATING AN AREA OF LOW CLOUDS ACROSS THE CENTRAL                
U.P.  THIS MVFR DECK TO MOVE THROUGH THE KSAW AREA OVER THE NEXT FEW            
HOURS. OTHERWISE...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL. MID-HIGH CLOUD             
BLOWOFF FROM CONVECTION OVER THE MN ARROWHEAD TO DRIFT IN OVERNIGHT             
WHILE UPPER MICHIGAN REMAINS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE UPR RDG                 
THROUGH 0Z SUN. AS THE RDG AXIS SHIFTS E...APPROACHING TROUGH AND               
ASSOCIATED WAA BRINGS A SLIGHT POTENTIAL FOR PRECIPITATION SAT                  
AFTERNOON...BUT BIGGER CONCERN IS FOR LLWS AS 925 MB WINDS INCREASE             
TO 40 KTS NR KCMX AND 35 KTS AT KSAW BY 0Z SUN. HAVE INCLUDED LLWS              
IN TAFS AT BOTH SITES...BUT LIMITED PRECIPITATION CHANCES AS IT WILL            
TAKE TIME BEFORE DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE IS OVERWHELMED BY                         
FORCING/MOISTURE ADVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACHING TROUGH.              
&&                                                                              
.MARINE (FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FCST ISSUANCE)...                           
S TO SE WINDS ON THE INCREASE TODAY AS THE HIGH MOVES E OF THE AREA             
AND LOW PRES OVER THE DAKOTAS SHIFTS EAST. AS A RESULT...20 TO 30 KT            
WINDS TO BE COMMON ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR THROUGH SUN AFTERNOON. THERE            
IS A POTENTIAL FOR GALE FORCE WIND GUSTS THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE              
EAST AS 0Z NAM SHOWING 925 MB WINDS TO 35 KT...ALTHOUGH GFS NOT AS              
STRONG AT THIS LEVEL. NAM EVEN STRONGER ON SUN WITH 40 TO 50 KT                 
WINDS AT 925 MB BY 18Z...BUT AGAIN GFS NOT AS STRONG. ENOUGH                    
UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS TO WARRANT A MENTION OF POSSIBLE GALE FORCE               
WINDS GUSTS FOR BOTH TODAY AND SUN WITHIN THE EAST HALF OF THE                  
LAKE.                                                                           
&&                                                                              
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE                                         
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
DISCUSSION...ROLFSON                                                            
AVIATION...RJT                                                                  
MARINE...RJT                                                                    
</pre> mi                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI                                     
348 AM EDT SAT SEP 29 2007                                                      
.SHORT TERM...SURFACE RIDGE OVERHEAD SLOWLY SLIDING OFF TO THE EAST TODAY...WHIL
AT 500 MB A RIDGE TO BE PLANTED OVERHEAD.                                       
AIR MASS OVERHEAD PRETTY DRY TODAY...EXCEPTING A MODEST DEGREE OF               
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AFFECTING THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS LOW              
LEVEL MOISTURE AIDED BY EASTERLY COMPONENT OFF OF THE GREAT LAKES.              
WILL CONTINUE THE MENTION OF FOG UNTIL AROUND 13Z. THEREAFTER...                
ABUNDANT MOISTURE TODAY WITH LOW TO MID LEVEL SUBSIDENCE.                       
HOWEVER...HIGH CLOUDS WILL LIKELY BEGIN SPREADING IN FROM THE WEST              
BY EVENING ESPECIALLY NORTH AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE                   
TROUGH. SOME HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS INCREASE SUPPORTED BY MODEL                  
SOUNDINGS...ESPECIALLY GFS. BELIEVE THE NAM INDICATIONS OF 4 TO 5K              
MOISTURE IN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA BY 18Z TO BE OVERDONE...NOT              
SUPPORTED BY OTHER MODELS INCLUDING THE LATEST RUC.                             
TEMPERATURES TODAY TRENDING A TAD WARMER THAN YESTERDAY ESPECIALLY              
AWAY FROM THE GREAT LAKES...AS LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION BEGINS IN               
RETURN FLOW.                                                                    
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY                                             
TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE TO THE EAST WHICH WILL               
ALLOW FOR AN INCREASING RETURN FLOW OF WARM SOUTHERLY AIR. THERE MAY            
BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF BROKEN MID LEVEL CLOUDS TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY               
ACROSS THE NORTH AS A WEAKENING CONVECTIVE INDUCED VORT MAX FROM THE            
MIDWEST PASSES ACROSS THE AREA AROUND THE UPPER RIDGE...OTHER WISE              
SKIES WILL BE CLEAR. EXPECT SURFACE GRADIENT TO KEEP WINDS UP                   
TONIGHT SO RADIATIONAL COOLING SHOULD NOT BE AS PRONOUNCED AS                   
LAST NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S. WITH PLENTY OF                
SUNSHINE...LOW DEW POINTS AND WARM AIR ADVECTION SUNDAY HIGHS WILL              
REACH THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S.                                                 
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...NAM HAS COME MORE IN LINE WITH GFS WITH               
PACIFIC NORTHWEST SHORTWAVE CLOSING OVER THE MIDWEST AND THEN                   
LIFTING ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN.  THIS WILL DRIVE A COLD                 
FRONT THROUGH THE AREA LATE SUNDAY NIGHT/MON MORNING WITH DECENT                
LIFT BUT MARGINAL INSTABILITY. EXPECT NARROW LINE OF                            
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE FOLLOWED BY A BREAK...THEN    
ANOTHER CHANCE OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY AFTERNOON AS THE 500MB           
COLD POOL CROSSES THE AREA DURING MAX HEATING OF THE DAY.                       
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...UPPER RIDGING ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF             
OF THE NATION WILL KEEP THE AREA IN A WARM FLOW REGIME WITH ANOTHER             
SHORTWAVE EJECTING OUT OF THE WESTERN TROUGH ACROSS THE AREA LATE               
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY WITH ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND                 
THUNDERSTORMS.                                                                  
&&                                                                              
.MARINE...                                                                      
EASTERLY COMPONENT WINDS EARLY THIS MORNING WILL MAINTAIN WAVES 3 TO            
5 FEET OVER THE LAKE HURON NEARSHORE WATERS. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY               
CONDITIONS ARE AGAIN LIKELY FOR PARTS OF THIS SAME AREA LATE SUNDAY             
THROUGH MONDAY IN INCREASING SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW. THE NEXT                  
CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY AS A              
COLD FRONT MOVES IN.                                                            
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 101 AM EDT SAT SEP 29 2007 /                          
AVIATION...                                                                     
THERE STILL APPEARS A GOOD CHANCE OF RADIATIONAL FOG AT FNT AND MBS             
AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVERHEAD EARLY THIS MORNING. A                   
SHALLOW MOIST LAYER SHOULD LEND ITSELF TO A BRIEF PERIOD OF IFR FOG             
CENTERED AROUND 12Z. TEMPS WILL REMAIN A LITTLE WARMER IN THE URBAN             
ENVIRONMENT AROUND DTW AND DET...SO NOT EXPECT ANY VISIBILITY                   
RESTRICTIONS AT THIS TIME FOR THESE SITES. OTHERWISE...VFR                      
CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE DAY AS THE HIGH             
PRESSURE DRIFTS EAST OF THE REGION.                                             
&&                                                                              
.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
MI...NONE.                                                                      
LAKE HURON...                                                                   
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...NEARSHORE WATERS FROM PORT AUSTIN TO PORT           
     HURON...UNTIL 8 AM SATURDAY.                                               
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.                                                           
MI WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.                                                  
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHORT TERM...DWD                                                                
LONG TERM....DRC                                                                
MARINE.......DWD                                                                
AVIATION.....CONSIDINE                                                          
YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE            
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).                                    
</pre> mi                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN                              
100 PM CDT SAT SEP 29 2007                                                      
.UPDATE...ADDED AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR 18Z TAFS BELOW                          
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION.../18Z TAFS/                                                          
MANY IMPACTS TO FOCUS ON OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. FIRST IS                      
SHRA/ISOLD TSRA. MAIN SITE TO BE AFFECTED WILL BE KEAU AS BAND OF               
SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED STORMS MOVES NORTHEAST. VIS REDUCTION IN                   
RAIN SHOULD BE BRIEF BUT MAY GET DOWN TO 2 MILES OR LESS. OTHER                 
MORE ISOLATED ACTIVITY WILL CROSS KRWF/KSTC/KMSP/KRNH THROUGH                   
ABOUT 20 OR 21Z WHEN THINGS SHOULD DIMINISH. AREA OF MVFR CIGS AND              
LOCALIZED IFR CIGS AFFECTING AREAS EAST OF A KSTC TO KFRM AT 18Z                
AND MOVING RAPIDLY NORTHEAST. ERRATIC CIGS BETWEEN 1000 AND 2500                
FEET WITH SOME ISOLATED 900 FT CIGS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH 20 OR                 
21Z AS WELL. EXPECT A BREAK IN THE PRECIP FROM LATE THIS AFTERNOON              
INTO THE EVENING. LOW PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS THE DAKOTAS WILL DRAG              
A COLD FRONT EASTWARD. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO                
DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE FRONT IN THE DAKOTAS AND INTO NEBRASKA THIS                
EVENING AND MOVE EASTWARD INTO MINNESOTA OVERNIGHT. SUNDAY LOOKS                
WET WITH MVFR CONDITIONS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE SITES.                           
SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL REMAIN STRONG THROUGH THE EARLY                   
EVENING. THE HIGHEST WINDS WILL BE FOUND WEST OF A KSTC TO KAEL                 
LINE WITH SUSTAINED SPEEDS OF 20 TO 25 KTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 35 OR               
40 KTS. SPEEDS WILL BE LESS TO THE EAST BUT GUSTS TO BETWEEN 25                 
AND 30 KTS WILL BE POSSIBLE INTO FAR WEST CENTRAL WI. SFC GUSTS                 
SHOULD DECREASE AFTER DARK BUT SUSTAINED SPEEDS WILL REMAIN IN THE              
15 TO 20KT RANGE. WINDS WITHIN THE FIRST FEW THOUSAND FEET ABOVE                
THE SFC WILL BE VERY STRONG WITH SPEEDS OF 40 TO 60 KTS BETWEEN                 
1000 AND ABOUT 4000 FT. WILL NEED TO MONITOR FOR LLWS MENTION                   
OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL BECOME WESTERLY THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY.  ..MDB..          
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 604 AM CDT SAT SEP 29 2007/                         
DISCUSSION...                                                                   
ACTIVE AND ABNORMAL WEATHER PATTERN FOR THE FINAL DAYS OF                       
SEPTEMBER CONTINUES TO POSE SEVERAL CHALLENGES TO THE FORECAST.                 
GOES WV LOOP SHOWING BROAD DEEP UPPER MOISTURE FANNING NORTHEAST                
FROM THE ERN PACIFIC AS WRN US TROUGH DEEPENS. EVIDENT SHORTWAVE                
ENTERING FAR SW MN SHOULD CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHEAST THIS MORNING.              
THIS WAVE PERSISTENTLY DEVELOPED CONVECTION TO OUR SOUTHWEST EARLY              
THIS MORNING AND WE EXPECT RE-EVOLVEMENT IN SRN MN THROUGH THE                  
MORNING AND INTO CTRL MN AND WRN WI BY LATE MORNING GIVEN WAVE                  
MOVEMENT. LOW LEVEL JET HAS BEEN OBSERVED AT 65 KTS THIS MORNING                
ON PROFILERS AND SOME SHOWERS HAVE BROUGHT DOWN OVER 50 MPH WINDS               
IN FAR SE SD. ALSO...ELEVATED LAPSE RATES OF 7-8.5 C/KM INDICATED               
BY RUC MODEL AND OBSERVED BY RAOBS UPSTREAM LAST NIGHT MAY                      
GENERATE WIDELY ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS TODAY AS LOW LEVEL JET ONLY              
SHIFTS EAST AND DOES NOT TRULY WEAKEN.                                          
AS EXPECTED...WINDS TODAY WILL BE QUITE BREEZY AND EVEN INTO                    
TONIGHT IN MANY PLACES. AS ONGOING CYCLOGENSIS IN ERN MN SHIFTS                 
EAST INTO THE HIGH PLAINS TODAY THE SEA LEVEL PRESSURE GRADIENT                 
WILL CONTINUE TO TIGHTEN. MOST FAVORABLE AREA BOTH ENVIRONMENTALLY              
AND CLIMATOLOGICALLY IS SOUTHWEST MN. IN THE MORNING...THE AMOUNT               
OF CLOUDS AND SHOWERS FROM AFOREMENTIONED SHORT WAVE WILL LIMIT                 
MIXING. HOWEVER...HIGH RESOLUTION MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE IN THE               
WAKE OF THIS LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL INCREASE QUICKLY. THINK WE              
MAY BE AT THE BORDER OF TRUE WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA...HOWEVER WITH              
IT BEING A MILD WEEKEND DAY THE THOUGHT IS THE PUBLIC IMPACT COULD              
BE A BIT GREATER...SO WIND ADVISORY ISSUED FOR WEST CTRL AND SOUTH              
CTRL MN.                                                                        
NUMERICAL GUIDANCE IS IN MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT THAN ON FRIDAY WITH              
WAVE OF INTEREST NOW ON SHORE. THE NAM MODEL HAS BOTH SLOWED AND                
CALMED DOWN AND HAS BEEN USED WITH THE GFS THROUGH TONIGHT. THE SREF            
MODEL HAS BEEN USED TO WEIGH CONFIDENCE. THE LOCAL AREA SHOULD                  
REMAIN BASICALLY DRY MUCH OF THIS EVE WITH LACK OF ANY REAL FOCUS.              
SURFACE FRONT AND NARROW HIGH DEW POINT FETCH LIKELY TO KICK OFF                
CONVECTION OVER CTRL SD LATE THIS AFTN AND THIS EVE. INCOMING                   
STRONG UPPER AND MID LEVEL JET SUPPORT SHOULD ASSIST THIS                       
CONVECTION TO EVOLVE QUICKLY NORTHEAST. COUPLED JET STRUCTURE IS                
STILL QUITE PRONOUNCED AND PROGGED TO SHIFT OVER WEST CTRL MN                   
OVERNIGHT. SOME CONVECTION MAY BE SEVERE GIVEN THE DYNAMICS OR                  
PRODUCE HEAVY RAIN GIVEN THE OVER 200 PERCENT OF NORMAL                         
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AND FAVORABLE PRECIP EFFICIENCY                       
PARAMETERS FORECAST. SO CONTINUE HIGHS POPS IN WRN MN AND SPREAD                
THEM SLOWLY EAST INTO EARLY SUN.                                                
SLIGHTLY NEGATIVE TITLED CLOSED UPPER WAVE SHOULD EJECT QUICKLY                 
NORTHEAST SUNDAY AND BE OVER SRN MN APPROXIMATELY BY 00Z MON.                   
SURFACE LOW EXPECTED TO BE SOMEWHERE JUST TO THE SOUTH...WITH BEST              
LOW LEVEL WARM SECTOR IN ERN IA. HOWEVER SHEAR VALUES ARE QUITE                 
IMPRESSIVE IN SOUTHEAST MN...SO ANY SLIGHT NORTHWARD SHIFT OF                   
SYNOPTIC FEATURES WILL YIELD MORE INSTABILITY IN THIS AREA AND HAVE             
TO BE WATCHED FOR. BUT IN GENERAL...SUNDAY SHOULD SEE WIDESPREAD                
YET UNDER CONTROL SHOWER AND T-STORMS PINWHEELING AROUND UPPER                  
WAVE.                                                                           
THEN OCTOBER BEGINS ON MON BUT THIS SILLY...YET EXCITING WEATHER                
PATTERN WILL CONTINUE. ONE DAY OF HIGH PRESSURE ON MON WILL GIVE                
WAY TO ANOTHER FAIRLY IMPRESSIVE SYSTEM ON TUES WITH LARGE                      
DEVIATIONS IN 850MB WIND SPEEDS AND PRECIPITABLE WATERS. WILL HAVE              
TO WATCH FOR SEVERE CHANCES WITH LOW PLACEMENT AND TIME OF DAY                  
PASSAGE SEEMING FAVORABLE IN AVAILABLE GUIDANCE. BEYOND...WE                    
BRIEFLY EXPERIENCE ZONAL FLOW BEFORE SOUTHWEST FLOW RESUMES DURING              
THE WEEKEND...MEANING A MILD FIRST WEEK TO TEN DAYS OF OCTOBER.                 
&&                                                                              
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
MN...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR BLUE EARTH-BROWN-          
     CHIPPEWA-DOUGLAS-FARIBAULT-FREEBORN-KANDIYOHI-LAC QUI PARLE-               
     MARTIN-NICOLLET-POPE-REDWOOD-RENVILLE-STEVENS-SWIFT-WASECA-                
     WATONWAN-YELLOW MEDICINE COUNTY(IES).                                      
WI...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</pre> mn                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN                              
604 AM CDT SAT SEP 29 2007                                                      
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
ACTIVE AND ABNORMAL WEATHER PATTERN FOR THE FINAL DAYS OF                       
SEPTEMBER CONTINUES TO POSE SEVERAL CHALLENGES TO THE FORECAST.                 
GOES WV LOOP SHOWING BROAD DEEP UPPER MOISTURE FANNING NORTHEAST                
FROM THE ERN PACIFIC AS WRN US TROUGH DEEPENS. EVIDENT SHORTWAVE                
ENTERING FAR SW MN SHOULD CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHEAST THIS MORNING.              
THIS WAVE PERSISTENTLY DEVELOPED CONVECTION TO OUR SOUTHWEST EARLY              
THIS MORNING AND WE EXPECT RE-EVOLVEMENT IN SRN MN THROUGH THE                  
MORNING AND INTO CTRL MN AND WRN WI BY LATE MORNING GIVEN WAVE                  
MOVEMENT. LOW LEVEL JET HAS BEEN OBSERVED AT 65 KTS THIS MORNING                
ON PROFILERS AND SOME SHOWERS HAVE BROUGHT DOWN OVER 50 MPH WINDS               
IN FAR SE SD. ALSO...ELEVATED LAPSE RATES OF 7-8.5 C/KM INDICATED               
BY RUC MODEL AND OBSERVED BY RAOBS UPSTREAM LAST NIGHT MAY                      
GENERATE WIDELY ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS TODAY AS LOW LEVEL JET ONLY              
SHIFTS EAST AND DOES NOT TRULY WEAKEN.                                          
AS EXPECTED...WINDS TODAY WILL BE QUITE BREEZY AND EVEN INTO                    
TONIGHT IN MANY PLACES. AS ONGOING CYCLOGENSIS IN ERN MN SHIFTS                 
EAST INTO THE HIGH PLAINS TODAY THE SEA LEVEL PRESSURE GRADIENT                 
WILL CONTINUE TO TIGHTEN. MOST FAVORABLE AREA BOTH ENVIRONMENTALLY              
AND CLIMATOLOGICALLY IS SOUTHWEST MN. IN THE MORNING...THE AMOUNT               
OF CLOUDS AND SHOWERS FROM AFOREMENTIONED SHORT WAVE WILL LIMIT                 
MIXING. HOWEVER...HIGH RESOLUTION MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE IN THE               
WAKE OF THIS LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL INCREASE QUICKLY. THINK WE              
MAY BE AT THE BORDER OF TRUE WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA...HOWEVER WITH              
IT BEING A MILD WEEKEND DAY THE THOUGHT IS THE PUBLIC IMPACT COULD              
BE A BIT GREATER...SO WIND ADVISORY ISSUED FOR WEST CTRL AND SOUTH              
CTRL MN.                                                                        
NUMERICAL GUIDANCE IS IN MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT THAN ON FRIDAY WITH              
WAVE OF INTEREST NOW ON SHORE. THE NAM MODEL HAS BOTH SLOWED AND                
CALMED DOWN AND HAS BEEN USED WITH THE GFS THROUGH TONIGHT. THE SREF            
MODEL HAS BEEN USED TO WEIGH CONFIDENCE. THE LOCAL AREA SHOULD                  
REMAIN BASICALLY DRY MUCH OF THIS EVE WITH LACK OF ANY REAL FOCUS.              
SURFACE FRONT AND NARROW HIGH DEW POINT FETCH LIKELY TO KICK OFF                
CONVECTION OVER CTRL SD LATE THIS AFTN AND THIS EVE. INCOMING                   
STRONG UPPER AND MID LEVEL JET SUPPORT SHOULD ASSIST THIS                       
CONVECTION TO EVOLVE QUICKLY NORTHEAST. COUPLED JET STRUCTURE IS                
STILL QUITE PRONOUNCED AND PROGGED TO SHIFT OVER WEST CTRL MN                   
OVERNIGHT. SOME CONVECTION MAY BE SEVERE GIVEN THE DYNAMICS OR                  
PRODUCE HEAVY RAIN GIVEN THE OVER 200 PERCENT OF NORMAL                         
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AND FAVORABLE PRECIP EFFICIENCY                       
PARAMETERS FORECAST. SO CONTINUE HIGHS POPS IN WRN MN AND SPREAD                
THEM SLOWLY EAST INTO EARLY SUN.                                                
SLIGHTLY NEGATIVE TITLED CLOSED UPPER WAVE SHOULD EJECT QUICKLY                 
NORTHEAST SUNDAY AND BE OVER SRN MN APPROXIMATELY BY 00Z MON.                   
SURFACE LOW EXPECTED TO BE SOMEWHERE JUST TO THE SOUTH...WITH BEST              
LOW LEVEL WARM SECTOR IN ERN IA. HOWEVER SHEAR VALUES ARE QUITE                 
IMPRESSIVE IN SOUTHEAST MN...SO ANY SLIGHT NORTHWARD SHIFT OF                   
SYNOPTIC FEATURES WILL YIELD MORE INSTABILITY IN THIS AREA AND HAVE             
TO BE WATCHED FOR. BUT IN GENERAL...SUNDAY SHOULD SEE WIDESPREAD                
YET UNDER CONTROL SHOWER AND T-STORMS PINWHEELING AROUND UPPER                  
WAVE.                                                                           
THEN OCTOBER BEGINS ON MON BUT THIS SILLY...YET EXCITING WEATHER                
PATTERN WILL CONTINUE. ONE DAY OF HIGH PRESSURE ON MON WILL GIVE                
WAY TO ANOTHER FAIRLY IMPRESSIVE SYSTEM ON TUES WITH LARGE                      
DEVIATIONS IN 850MB WIND SPEEDS AND PRECIPITABLE WATERS. WILL HAVE              
TO WATCH FOR SEVERE CHANCES WITH LOW PLACEMENT AND TIME OF DAY                  
PASSAGE SEEMING FAVORABLE IN AVAILABLE GUIDANCE. BEYOND...WE                    
BRIEFLY EXPERIENCE ZONAL FLOW BEFORE SOUTHWEST FLOW RESUMES DURING              
THE WEEKEND...MEANING A MILD FIRST WEEK TO TEN DAYS OF OCTOBER.                 
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION.../12Z TAF ISSUANCE/                                                  
ELEVATED CONVECTION WILL BE ON GOING OVER PARTS OF EAST CENTRAL                 
AND SOUTH CENTRAL MN AND WEST CNTRL WI AND LINGER THROUGH MID DAY               
OVER WI TAF SITES IN ADVANCE OF A WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTHEAST OVER             
THE UPPER MIDWEST. MOD TO STRONG SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL AIRFLOW WILL               
CONTINUE OVER THE TAF SITES DURING THE DAY TODAY.  WINDS OCCASIONAL             
GUSTING UP TO 45 MPH NEAR KRWF AND KMKT. SFC WINDS DECOUPLING OVER              
THE UPPER MIDWEST THIS EVENING.  CLOUDS AND CEILINGS BTWN 6-10                  
THOUSAND FEET TDA. WX CONDS LOWERING TO 3-5 MILES AND CEILING AROUND            
35 HUNDRED FEET IN PRECIP THIS MRNG AND EARLY AFTERNOON. 850MB MEAN             
WIND SPEEDS INCREASE OVER THE TAF SITES BETWEEN 50-60 KNOTS TONIGHT.            
KEPT THE GREATEST THREAT OF TSRA OVER WESTERN TAF SITES BEFORE                  
09Z.                                                                            
&&                                                                              
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
MN...WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM CDT THIS                     
AFTERNOON FOR BLUE EARTH-BROWN-CHIPPEWA-FARIBAULT-FREEBORN-LAC QUI              
PARLE-MARTIN-NICOLLET-REDWOOD-RENVILLE-WASECA-WATONWAN-YELLOW                   
MEDICINE COUNTIES.                                                              
WI...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</pre> mn                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE                                        
1027 AM CDT SUN SEP 30 2007                                                     
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
12Z UPPR AIR ANLYS INDCD CLOSED H5 LO OVR NE CO ASSOCIATED WITH 70              
TO 80 M HEIGHT FALLS ACRS THE WRN HI PLAINS. AT H3 100 KT JET                   
EXTNDD FM SE CO INTO WRN NEB. OAX CWA WAS CURRENTLY RIGHT IN THE                
MIDDLE OF THE ELEVATED MIXED LAYER WITH +10 AT H7..BUT UPSTREAM                 
COOLING WAS NOTED AT KLBF AND KBOU. AT H85...LO WAS CENTERED NR                 
KLBF WITH THE MOIST AXIS FM THE SRN PLAINS INTO CNTRL NEB WITH +15              
C DEW POINTS. 15Z SFC ANLYS INDCD 1005 MB LO OVR KGRI WITH SFC DRY              
LINE MIXING THRU CNTRL KS AND THE CDFNT MOVING INTO OUR NW CWA.                 
CURRENT TSRA ACTIVITY FM SE NEB INTO WRN IA SHLD CONT TO MOV OFF                
TO THE E THIS AFTN AND IS BASED ABOVE THE EML OR ARND 700 MB. MORE              
IMPORTANTLY...SFC LO OVR CNTRL NEB IS EXPECTED TO CONT TO TRACK                 
EWD INTO WEST CENTRAL IA BY MID AFTERNOON. SFC DRY LINE IS EXPECTED             
TO MIX EAST QUICKLY INTO SW IA. THIS SETS UP AN INTERESTING                     
CORRIDOR OF POSSIBLE SEVERE WEATHER OVER NORTHEAST NEBRASKA INTO                
WEST CENTRAL IA...JUST TO THE EAST OF THE SFC LO AND JUST SOUTH OF              
THE ADVANCING COLD FRONT. IN THIS AREA...WHERE SOME PARTIAL                     
CLEANING IS TAKING PLACE...CAPE VALUES OF UP TO 1000 J/KG ARE                   
EXPECTED BY EARLY AFTN. AS LARGE SCALE FORCING...SEEN WELL IN THE               
500 TO 300 MB DIV-Q ADVANCING EWD THIS AFTN ASSOCIATED WITH THE                 
UPPER LO...LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT IS EXPECTED TO SIG                    
INCREASE. THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND THEN INCREASE               
IN COVERAGE OVR NE NEB ARND OR SHORTLY AFTER 18Z AND THEN TRACK                 
EWD INTO WEST CENTRAL IA. DEEP-LAYER SHEAR IS VERY FAVORABLE FOR                
SUPERCELLS IN THIS AREA. LO LVL SHEAR IS STRONG...BUT LITTLE                    
DEEPENING OF THE SFC LO IS EXPECTED THRU THE AFTN AND SFC WINDS                 
ARE EXPECTED TO VEER TO THE SSW AS THE SYSTEM NEARS. THUS LO LVL                
TURNING WITHIN THE HODOGRAPH IS MARGINAL. NEVERTHELESS...THE LO                 
LVL BULK SHEAR VALUES OF IMPRESSIVE AND THUS CAN NOT RULE OUT AN                
ISOLATED TORNADO...BUT EXPECTED WIND TO BE THE MAIN THREAT.                     
RELATIVELY WARM MID LVL TMPS...AND A SKINNY AND LONG CAPE PROFILE               
WILL LIKELY KEEP VERY LARGE HAIL THREAT AT A MINIMUM. FARTHER                   
SOUTH ALONG THE DRY LINE STORMS MAY STRONGER FOR A LONGER TIME                  
GETTING GOING DUE TO THE LACK OF STRONG SURFACE CONVERGENCE WITH                
THE SOUTHWEST WINDS. THUS BETTER COVERAGE OF STORMS IS EXPECTED                 
ALONG THE DRY LINE FARTHER EAST INTO IA/MO.                                     
DID UPDATE THE FORECAST EARLIER TO REDUCE POPS OVR THE WRN CWA THRU             
THE MRNG...BUT OTHERWISE GOING FORECAST SEEMS IN GOOD SHAPE. POST               
DRY LINE WINDS OVR THE SW CWA SHLD GET CLOSE OR MEET ADVISORY                   
CRITERIA AND THUS WL KEEP CURRENT ADVRY GOING FOR THAT AREA.                    
BOUSTEAD                                                                        
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 446 AM CDT SUN SEP 30 2007/                         
DISCUSSION...                                                                   
WILL FOCUS ON SHORT TERM CONCERNS WITH WX ASSOCIATED WITH INTENSE               
CLOSED MID TROPOSPHERIC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND IF HEADLINES ARE NEEDED.        
THE LATEST RUC ANALYSIS HAD THE CLOSED MID TROPOSHPERIC LOW OVR NW              
CO WITH SOME SHORTWAVE TROF ENERGY LIFTING N INTO SD. THE TSRA ARE              
MOST ACTIVE ACRS SD...HOWEVER EXTEND SW ACRS PARTS OF NEB INTO NW               
KS...THE OK PNHLD...AND TO ERN NM. THE LEADING EDGE OF THE DEEPER               
MOISTURE IS NOSING INTO SD AND EXTENDS S IN THE SAME AREA AS WHERE              
THE TSRA ARE. PER THE H7 ANALYSIS...THERE ARE ELEVATED STEEP LAPSE              
RATE ALONG WITH GOOD 0-3KM HELICITY ACRS NE NEB.                                
THE INTENSE MID LEVEL LOW OVER CO WILL TRACK ACROSS NEBRASKA TODAY              
AND INTO IOWA TONIGHT. AHEAD OF IT...THE NLGN1 PROFILER HAD H85                 
SW WINDS AT 45 KTS AND THE RWDN1/HVLK1 PROFILERS HAD 55KT LOW                   
LEVEL WINDS. SPC HAS THE SLIGHT RISK FOR SVR STORMS MAINLY OVR IA               
INTO MO AND ERN KS TODAY. THE BETTER THETA-E ADVECTION IS TO OUR                
EAST...HOWEVER STEEP LAPSE RATES ARE STILL FCST OVR THE ERN PART                
OF NEB INTO IA AT 18Z AND THE RUC IS SHOWING SOME INTENSE                       
CONVECTION INITIATING OVR ERN NEB EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON. THE SFC               
LOW AND ASSOCIATED DRYLINE/FNT QUICKLY MOVE ACRS THE AREA THIS                  
AFTERNOON...THUS CONSIDERATIONS FOR SVR WX AND HIGH WINDS. AHEAD                
OF THE LOW THERE SHOULD BE STRONG MIXING AND BEHIND THE LOW STRONG              
NW WINDS. DECIDED TO ISSUE A WIND ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEAST NEB FOR                
MARGINAL WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA WITH THE THOUGHT THAT THE DAY                   
SHIFT COULD EVALUATE HOW MIXING CONDITIONS WERE EVOLVING AND ADD                
TO OR TRIM AS NECESSARY. DUE TO THE STRONG DYNAMICS AND STRONG                  
WIND SHEAR...ALTHOUGH THE INSTABILITY IS MODEST...COULD SEE STRONG              
TO SEVERE STORMS IN ERN NEB AND SW IA.                                          
CLOUDCOVER AND TEMPERATURES WILL BE A CHALLENGE WITH ONGOING                    
PRECIPITATION NORTH AND HOW MUCH WARM AIR WORKS INTO THE SOUTH                  
BEFORE THE STORM SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH TODAY. HAVE A RANGE OF HIGHS FM           
THE UPR 60S N TODAY TO THE LOWER 80S SE AND ALSO HAVE HIGH CHC OF               
TSRA N TODAY WITH A CHC S. THERE MAY BE SOME LINGERING EVENING                  
SHOWERS NORTHEAST...OTHERWISE EXPECT CLEARING AND DIMINISHING NW                
WINDS OVERNIGHT.                                                                
MONDAY...HIGH PRES OVR THE PLAINS WILL GIVE WAY TO ANOTHER AREA OF              
LOW PRES DEVELOPING ACROSS THE WESTERN PLAINS. A MID LEVEL TROF                 
WITH EMBEDDED SHORT WAVES WILL ADVANCE ACRS THE NRN PLNS MON NIGHT              
AND THE FORECAST AREA MAINLY AFTER 06Z MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.                
THE MID LEVEL FLOW FLATTENS OUT WITH DRY CONDITIONS TUESDAY NIGHT               
THRU WED NIGHT. THE FLOW BECOMES MORE SW AND MORE ACTIVE                        
THU...WITH SHORT WAVE ENERGY MOVING FM SW TO NE IN THE                          
FLOW...WHILE THE MAIN TROF REMAINS OVR THE WRN U.S. THE CDFNT                   
PUSHES ACRS THE CWA SAT AND BOTH THE GFS/ECMWF ARE IN GOOD                      
AGREEMENT WITH THIS. DID NOT MAKE ANY SIG CHGS TO THE EXTENDED AT               
THIS TIME...HOWEVER THERE MAY BE SOME TWEAKING OF POPS THU AND                  
INCREASING THE CHC FOR RAIN WITH THE FRONT SAT. MON THRU FRI                    
REMAIN MILD WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. WE GO AT OR BELOW                   
NORMAL WITH THE FROPA SAT.                                                      
AVIATION...                                                                     
THUNDERSTORMS WEST OF A KOLU TO KOFK LINE WILL LIKELY IMPACT KOFK               
BTWN 07-09Z AND THEN AGAIN IN ADDITION WITH THE OTHER TAF SITES                 
AFTER 15Z. STRONG S SFC WINDS WL CONT OVR TAF SITES THRU THE EARLY              
MORNING HOURS WITH SPEEDS OF 20-25 KTS WITH GUSTS TO NEAR 30 KTS.               
PRECIPITATION WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. A COLD              
FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON AND THE              
STRONG GUSTY SOUTH WINDS WILL BE REPLACED WITH GUSTY WEST                       
NORTHWEST UNTIL SUNSET.                                                         
CZ/JR                                                                           
&&                                                                              
.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
NE...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR NEZ065>068-078-            
     088>093.                                                                   
IA...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</pre> ne                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE                                        
446 AM CDT SUN SEP 30 2007                                                      
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
WILL FOCUS ON SHORT TERM CONCERNS WITH WX ASSOCIATED WITH INTENSE               
CLOSED MID TROPOSPHERIC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND IF HEADLINES ARE NEEDED.        
THE LATEST RUC ANALYSIS HAD THE CLOSED MID TROPOSHPERIC LOW OVR NW              
CO WITH SOME SHORTWAVE TROF ENERGY LIFTING N INTO SD. THE TSRA ARE              
MOST ACTIVE ACRS SD...HOWEVER EXTEND SW ACRS PARTS OF NEB INTO NW               
KS...THE OK PNHLD...AND TO ERN NM. THE LEADING EDGE OF THE DEEPER               
MOISTURE IS NOSING INTO SD AND EXTENDS S IN THE SAME AREA AS WHERE              
THE TSRA ARE. PER THE H7 ANALYSIS...THERE ARE ELEVATED STEEP LAPSE              
RATE ALONG WITH GOOD 0-3KM HELICITY ACRS NE NEB.                                
THE INTENSE MID LEVEL LOW OVER CO WILL TRACK ACROSS NEBRASKA TODAY              
AND INTO IOWA TONIGHT. AHEAD OF IT...THE NLGN1 PROFILER HAD H85                 
SW WINDS AT 45 KTS AND THE RWDN1/HVLK1 PROFILERS HAD 55KT LOW                   
LEVEL WINDS. SPC HAS THE SLIGHT RISK FOR SVR STORMS MAINLY OVR IA               
INTO MO AND ERN KS TODAY. THE BETTER THETA-E ADVECTION IS TO OUR                
EAST...HOWEVER STEEP LAPSE RATES ARE STILL FCST OVR THE ERN PART                
OF NEB INTO IA AT 18Z AND THE RUC IS SHOWING SOME INTENSE                       
CONVECTION INITIATING OVR ERN NEB EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON. THE SFC               
LOW AND ASSOCIATED DRYLINE/FNT QUICKLY MOVE ACRS THE AREA THIS                  
AFTERNOON...THUS CONSIDERATIONS FOR SVR WX AND HIGH WINDS. AHEAD                
OF THE LOW THERE SHOULD BE STRONG MIXING AND BEHIND THE LOW STRONG              
NW WINDS. DECIDED TO ISSUE A WIND ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEAST NEB FOR                
MARGINAL WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA WITH THE THOUGHT THAT THE DAY                   
SHIFT COULD EVALUATE HOW MIXING CONDITIONS WERE EVOLVING AND ADD                
TO OR TRIM AS NECESSARY. DUE TO THE STRONG DYNAMICS AND STRONG                  
WIND SHEAR...ALTHOUGH THE INSTABILITY IS MODEST...COULD SEE STRONG              
TO SEVERE STORMS IN ERN NEB AND SW IA.                                          
CLOUDCOVER AND TEMPERATURES WILL BE A CHALLENGE WITH ONGOING                    
PRECIPITATION NORTH AND HOW MUCH WARM AIR WORKS INTO THE SOUTH                  
BEFORE THE STORM SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH TODAY. HAVE A RANGE OF HIGHS FM           
THE UPR 60S N TODAY TO THE LOWER 80S SE AND ALSO HAVE HIGH CHC OF               
TSRA N TODAY WITH A CHC S. THERE MAY BE SOME LINGERING EVENING                  
SHOWERS NORTHEAST...OTHERWISE EXPECT CLEARING AND DIMINISHING NW                
WINDS OVERNIGHT.                                                                
MONDAY...HIGH PRES OVR THE PLAINS WILL GIVE WAY TO ANOTHER AREA OF              
LOW PRES DEVELOPING ACROSS THE WESTERN PLAINS. A MID LEVEL TROF                 
WITH EMBEDDED SHORT WAVES WILL ADVANCE ACRS THE NRN PLNS MON NIGHT              
AND THE FORECAST AREA MAINLY AFTER 06Z MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.                
THE MID LEVEL FLOW FLATTENS OUT WITH DRY CONDITIONS TUESDAY NIGHT               
THRU WED NIGHT. THE FLOW BECOMES MORE SW AND MORE ACTIVE                        
THU...WITH SHORT WAVE ENERGY MOVING FM SW TO NE IN THE                          
FLOW...WHILE THE MAIN TROF REMAINS OVR THE WRN U.S. THE CDFNT                   
PUSHES ACRS THE CWA SAT AND BOTH THE GFS/ECMWF ARE IN GOOD                      
AGREEMENT WITH THIS. DID NOT MAKE ANY SIG CHGS TO THE EXTENDED AT               
THIS TIME...HOWEVER THERE MAY BE SOME TWEAKING OF POPS THU AND                  
INCREASING THE CHC FOR RAIN WITH THE FRONT SAT. MON THRU FRI                    
REMAIN MILD WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. WE GO AT OR BELOW                   
NORMAL WITH THE FROPA SAT.                                                      
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
THUNDERSTORMS WEST OF A KOLU TO KOFK LINE WILL LIKELY IMPACT KOFK               
BTWN 07-09Z AND THEN AGAIN IN ADDITION WITH THE OTHER TAF SITES                 
AFTER 15Z. STRONG S SFC WINDS WL CONT OVR TAF SITES THRU THE EARLY              
MORNING HOURS WITH SPEEDS OF 20-25 KTS WITH GUSTS TO NEAR 30 KTS.               
PRECIPITATION WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. A COLD              
FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON AND THE              
STRONG GUSTY SOUTH WINDS WILL BE REPLACED WITH GUSTY WEST                       
NORTHWEST UNTIL SUNSET.                                                         
&&                                                                              
.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
NE...WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON           
     FOR NEZ065>068-078-088>093.                                                
IA...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
ZAPOTOCNY/REESE                                                                 
</pre> ne                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND                                         
1002 AM CDT SUN SEP 30 2007                                                     
.UPDATE...MAIN CHALLENGE TODAY WILL BE TRICKY TEMPERATURE FORECAST              
AND POPS/WX. WEAK WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE SE FA SHOULD BE NE OF FA BY           
18Z. 12Z RUC/NAM SHOW ASSOCIATED WEAK 700MB LOW MOVING TO THE NE                
AND THROUGH BY 18Z. THUS...THINK WIDESPREAD SHOWERS ACROSS THE SE               
FA WILL BE GONE BY AFTERNOON. MAIN SHORTWAVE WILL PASS SOUTH OF                 
THE FA THIS AFTERNOON...AND MAY SPREAD SOME SCT SHOWERS ACROSS THE              
FAR SE FA...BUT NOTHING WIDESPREAD. WILL LOWER POPS FOR THIS                    
AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES SHOULD SHOW MINIMAL RECOVERY WITH COLD AIR              
ADVECTION AND CLOUD COVER A MAJORITY OF THE DAY. CURRENT VALUES                 
REASONABLE AND WILL NOT CHANGE.                                                 
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...JUST GOT SOME HIGH AND MID CLOUDS IN THE FCST AREA NOW.             
SLIM BAND OF MVFR CIGS LOOKS LIKE IT WILL MOVE INTO THE VALLEY                  
18Z-21Z TIME PERIOD AND THEN CLEAR OUT THEREAFTER.                              
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 318 AM CDT SUN SEP 30 2007/                         
SHORT TERM...                                                                   
INCOMING 08Z OBS SHOWS COLD FRONT NR A WINNIPEG-HALLOCK-GRAND                   
FORKS-MAYVILLE-LISBON LINE THEN TO JUST WEST OF ABERDEEN. MAIN                  
PCPN MAKER IS STRONG 500 MB VORT MOVING UP ON EAST SIDE OF UPPER                
LOW NOW IN COLORADO. THIS VORT WAS MOVING INTO SCNTRL SD AND WITH               
STRONG UPPER DIFFLUENCE NORTHEAST OF VORT MAX A LARGE AREA OF                   
CONVECTION CONTINUES. SVR THREAT APPEARS MINIMAL DUE TO LOW                     
MUCAPES OF ONLY AROUND 500-800 J/KG. BUT ENOUGH FOR THUNDERSTORMS.              
AS VORT MAX MOVES NORTHEAST FLOW IN THE 700-850 MB FLOW WILL TURN               
MORE NORTH-NORTHEAST AND THUS BAND OF THUNDERSTORMS IS LIFTING A                
BIT MORE NORTH THAN PREVIOUSLY AND COORD WITH WFO BISMARCK WOULD                
HAVE NRN EDGE OF MAIN RAIN NR A VALLEY CITY-HILLSBORO-RED LAKE                  
FALLS-BAUDETTE LINE THIS MORNING. SCATTERED SHOWERS JUST NORTH OF               
COMPLEX PER BISMARCK RADARS....BUT RATHER SHARP CUTOFF EXPECTED.                
OVERALL THESE IDEAS FLOWS WELL FROM PAST MODELS RUNS. VORT WILL                 
QUICKLY MOVE INTO NORTH CENTRAL/NE MN BY 15Z...SO WOULD EXPECT A                
RATHER QUICK ENDING OF THE THE MAIN RAIN BY LATE MORNING IN ALL                 
BUT THE FAR ERN AREAS. THE SHOWER THREAT WILL END IN MY FAR ERN                 
FCST AREA BY 00Z AND IS A LITTLE FASTER THAN PREVIOUS FCST.                     
TEMPS TODAY KIND OF TRICKY...AREA WEST OF FRONT IN DVL REGION JUST              
SEEING HIGH CLOUDS...BUT BAND OF STRATOCU DOES EXIST IN ERN MT/WRN              
ND INTO CANADA AND THIS IS PROGGED TO MOVE INTO THE AREA THIS                   
MORNING AND THEN EXIT THIS AFTN. COLD ADVECTION IS STRONGEST ON                 
NAM AND A BIT WEAKER ON GFS. OVERALL...ATMOSPHERE WOULD SUPPORT                 
LOWER TO MID 60S TODAY... HIGHEST READINGS MAY ACTUALLY BE MORE                 
IN THE MORNING FAR ERN FCST AREA AS COLD FRONT NOT THRU PLACES                  
LIKE WADENA AND PKD TIL NR 18Z.                                                 
QUICK HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE TO MOVE IN TONIGHT WITH CLEAR SKY AND                 
THIS WILL LAST INTO MUCH OF MONDAY BEFORE NEXT FAST MOVING SHORT                
WAVE NOW ENTERING THE PAC NORTHWEST MOVES INTO THE CNTRL/NRN                    
PLAINS TUESDAY. WILL SPREAD LOW POPS FOR SHOWERS INTO ERN ND LATE               
MON NIGHT AND THEN SPREAD POPS INTO MN ON TUESDAY MORNING BEFORE                
SYSTEM QUICKLY EXISTS BY TUES EVE. MOST OF THE JUICE AND                        
INSTABILITY WITH THIS ONE TO OUR SOUTH SO JUST WENT WITH SHOWERS                
AS SHOWALTERS WELL ABV ZERO.                                                    
LONG TERM...                                                                    
LONG TERM DOES LOOK ACTIVE...AS ALL MODELS HAVE AGREED FOR PAST                 
FEW DAYS ON SIGNIFICANT 500 MB TROUGH/UPR LOW TO MOVE INTO THE                  
ROCKIES LATE WEEK AND THEN EAST INTO THE PLAINS OVER THE WEEKEND.               
THIS WILL SPREAD SHOWERS INTO THE AREA. EXACT STRENGTH OF SFC LOW               
AND TIMING DETAILS HAVE VARIED FROM RUN TO RUN ON THE GFS AND                   
ECMWF SO ATTM NO NEED TO ALTER CURRENT EXTENDED POPS/WX/TEMPS. DID              
ADJUST SKY COVER ON SATURDAY AS SKY GRIDS HAD 30 PCT IN THERE FOR               
DVL REGION. THIS SEEMED LOW FOR STORM TO BE NEARBY SO UPPED THEM.               
COORD WITH BIS ON THIS. HPC SKY COVER GRIDS WHICH WERE USED CAN                 
BE TOO LOW AT TIMES.                                                            
&&                                                                              
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
ND...NONE.                                                                      
MN...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
TG                                                                              
</pre> nd                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA                                       
301 AM EDT SAT SEP 29 2007                                                      
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION FOR THE WEEKEND. DRY                   
CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH MOST OF NEXT WEEK...WITH                 
DAYTIME TEMPERATURES GRADUALLY WARMING.                                         
&&                                                                              
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...                                         
EVENING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS SHORTWAVE TRACKING ACROSS THE                 
SOUTHERN TIER OF NY STATE. SCT CONVECTION CONTINUES TO FIRE OVER                
NORTHEAST PA IN ADVANCE OF THIS FEATURE. HOWEVER...WILL DROP                    
MENTION OF SHWRS AFTER MIDNIGHT AS SHORTWAVE PASSES TO OUR EAST.                
FOR THE REMAINDER OF CENTRAL PA...LOSS OF HEATING AND SUBSIDENCE                
BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE HAS ALREADY RESULTED IN CLEARING SKIES.                    
RELATIVELY TIGHT SFC PRES GRADIENT WILL KEEP WIND UP AT 5 TO 10                 
MPH MOST OF THE NIGHT ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN PA.                            
HOWEVER...LIGHTER WINDS ACROSS WESTERN PA WILL LIKELY PROMOTE AREAS             
OF VALLEY FOG ACROSS THE ALLEGHENIES TOWARD DAWN. LATEST RUC DATA               
INDICATES SFC RH VALUES NR 100PCT AND CALM WIND ACROSS ALLEGHENIES              
BTWN 09-12Z.                                                                    
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...                               
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD IN ON SAT AND REMAIN OVER THE              
AREA THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. PLENTY OF SUNSHINE WILL MIX WITH                  
THE OCCASIONAL CUMULUS SATURDAY AS THE AIR ALOFT REMAINS RATHER                 
COOL. HOWEVER...AS THE CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES JUST EAST OF              
THE REGION ON SUNDAY...AND AS 850-700 HPA TEMPS BEGIN TO WARM IT                
WILL BECOME MORE DIFFICULT TO FIND ANY CLOUDS AT ALL. TEMPS WILL                
BE WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF NORMALS WITH LOW DEWPOINTS.                          
AREAS OF DENSE VALLEY FOG EARLY SUNDAY /AND SOME FROST ACROSS THE               
NORTHERN MOUNTAINS/ WILL BE THE PRIMARY ADVERSE WEATHER FACTORS                 
FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHTS. MIN TEMPS IN THE 30S AND 40S                    
SUNDAY WILL MARK THE BOTTOM OF THE UPCOMING COOLER AIRMASS.                     
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...                                     
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK WITH A                    
WARMING TREND...ALTHOUGH RAIN WILL REMAIN TOUGH TO COME BY.                     
TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE AIRMASS BECOMES                
MORE MODIFIED. PATCHY MORNING FOG WILL CONTINUE. CLOUDS WILL                    
INCREASE AS SHORTWAVE SLIDES ACROSS GREAT LAKES ON MONDAY. AS WEEK              
PROGRESSES...SURFACE RIDGE BEGINS TO GET SQUEEZED OVER CENTRAL                  
PA. THIS WILL INCREASE MOISTURE AND INTRODUCE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR               
SHOWERS FROM MIDWEEK ON. TEMPS WILL BE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE                   
NORMAL.                                                                         
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...                                   
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD BRINGING VFR                   
CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT. SURFACE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT OVERNIGHT                    
ALTHOUGH WINDS AT 925 MB WILL REMAIN BETWEEN 20 AND 30 KTS. AFTER               
SUNRISE SOME OF THIS MOMENTUM WILL AGAIN BEGIN TO MIX DOWN TO THE               
SURFACE BRINGING NORTH/NORTHWEST WINDS AT 10-15 KTS AND GUSTY.                  
JUST A FEW CU WILL DEVELOP BUT OTHERWISE A MOSTLY SUNNY DAY. CLEAR              
AND QUIET SAT NIGHT...WITH SOME VALLEY FOG LOCALLY REDUCING                     
VSBYS/CIGS AROUND 09-13Z.                                                       
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH WED WITH SURFACE HIGH                      
PRESSURE CONTINUING TO DOMINATE. THE EXCEPTION BEING DAILY EARLY                
MORNING VALLEY FOG WHICH WILL LOCALLY REDUCE VSBYS FOR A COUPLE OF              
HOURS EACH DAY. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT BACK TO THE SE THEN SW               
BUT REMAIN ON THE LIGHT SIDE. SOME PERIODS OF MID/HIGH CLOUDS WILL              
ARRIVE BY MIDWEEK.                                                              
&&                                                                              
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
NONE.                                                                           
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SYNOPSIS...DANGELO                                                              
NEAR TERM...FITZGERALD                                                          
SHORT TERM...RXR                                                                
LONG TERM...RXR                                                                 
AVIATION...RXR                                                                  
</pre> pa                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD                                            
1055 AM CDT SUN SEP 30 2007                                                     
.UPDATE...                                                                      
SHOWERS WERE LEAVING THE FAR NORTHEAST CWA QUICKLY THIS MORNING                 
WHILE NEW SHOWER/TSRA DEVELOPMENT WAS COMING INTO THE FAR SOUTHERN              
CWA IN CENTRAL SD. THESE SHOWERS/TSRAS WERE DEVELOPING NORTHEAST THIS           
MORNING AND MAY AFFECT THE AREA FROM KENNEBEC TO MILLER TO                      
REDFIELD TO BRITTON AND EAST THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. THE LATEST                 
MODELS ARE NOT BIG ON MORE MEASURABLE RAINFALL THROUGH THIS                     
AFTERNOON IN OUR CWA. AS THE UPPER LOW AND SURFACE LOW PRESSURE                 
AREA MOVE EAST NORTHEAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND                  
DRIER AIR AND SUBSIDENCE MOVES IN BEHIND...IT DOES NOT LOOK VERY                
FAVORABLE FOR SIGNIFICANT SHOWER DEVELOPMENT INTO OUR EASTERN CWA.              
THUS...DECREASED POPS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE AREA.                   
OTHERWISE...LOW CLOUDS WERE FORMING ACROSS THE EASTERN CWA AND                  
SHOULD REMAIN THROUGH MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON. ALSO...BREEZY/WINDY                
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL REMAIN THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH GOOD MIXING              
AND A GOOD SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT. UPDATED AND MADE SOME                     
CHANGES.                                                                        
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION...                                                             
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT                                        
THE SHORT TERM IS FOCUSED ON ONGOING PRECIPITATION. THE MOST                    
DEVELOPED ACCORDING TO THE WSR-88D IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD                  
FRONT DRAPED THROUGH THIS AREA. AT 08Z THE FRONT IS JUST WEST OF                
AN KABR TO KPIR LINE AND MOVING EAST. AT THIS TIME THE NAM AND GFS              
ARE CLOSE WITH THE UPPER LEVEL H5 CLOSED LOW MOVING ALONG JUST                  
BEHIND THE FRONT. THE GFS IS JUST SLIGHTLY FASTER WITH THIS UPPER               
FEATURE BUT NOT ENOUGH TO MAKE A BIG DIFFERENCE IN THE FORECAST.                
CONVECTION IS NOTED BEHIND THE SURFACE FRONT AND AHEAD OF THE                   
UPPER LEVEL LOW AND TROUGH. THE 07Z RUC MODEL SHOWS H85 WIND OF                 
AROUND 45 KNOTS OVER OUR EASTERN AREA WITH THE NOSE OF A 60KT MAX               
MOVING INTO SOUTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA. IT ALSO DEPICTS A NORTHWEST                 
JET IN NORTHWESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA OF 43 KTS. BY 18Z THE H85 TROUGH               
AXIS IS MOVING OUT OF THE STATE TO THE EAST WITH THE H5 TROUGH                  
AXIS JUST WEST OF KABR. IN THE WEATHER GRIDS THE PRECIPITATION WAS              
TIMED TO THIS UPPER FEATURE AND ENDED BY AROUND 00Z. GFS IS                     
SHOWING MORE HANG BACK WRAP AROUND PRECIPITATION LINGERING IN THE FAR           
EAST. NAM DOES NOT SHOW THIS. THE GFS IS SHOWING THE BEST H7 LIFT               
IN WESTERN MINNESOTA TO DECIDED TO END IT AT 00Z. TYPICALLY WE                  
WOULD BE SLOW TO CLEAR WITH LINGERING WRAP AROUND CLOUDS. IN THIS               
CASE THE MODELS AGREE ON A QUICKLY REBUILDING H5 RIDGE AXIS OVER                
THIS AREA WITH A SURFACE HIGH OVER COLORADO WITH A SURFACE RIDGE                
OVER EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA. SO EXPECT CLOUDS TO BE PUSHED THROUGH                
QUICKER THAN USUAL. BY NOON MONDAY THE NEXT SURFACE TROUGH IS                   
FORMING IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES WITH A STRONG RETURN FLOW. THIS               
SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY.                                         
.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT                                     
THIS PERIOD OPENS WITH THE NEST SURFACE FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVING                   
THROUGH EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA. UNLIKE THE CURRENT SYSTEM THE UPPER               
SUPPORT FOR THIS NEXT SYSTEM WILL BE MUCH WEAKER AND THERE WILL                 
NOT BE AS MUCH MOISTURE TO WORK WITH. DID CARRY A MENTION OF RAIN               
SHOWERS TUESDAY WITH THIS FEATURE. THE CHANCE OF RAIN OR                        
THUNDERSTORMS WILL LARGELY BE EAST OF THIS AREA BY TUESDAY                      
AFTERNOON. UPPER LEVEL FLOW THEN GOES TO FAST WESTERLY UNTIL LATE               
THURSDAY WHEN SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS AN OLD BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL                 
BRING A CHANCE TO THE EAST PART OF THE AREA.                                    
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
A COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED EAST OUT OF THIS FORECAST AREA...AND ALL                
FOUR TAF LOCATIONS WILL BE CONTENDING WITH COOL AND BREEZY                      
NORTHWEST WINDS THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY. THE COOLER AIR ADVECTING              
INTO THE REGION IS GENERATING SCATTERED TO BROKEN MVFR CEILINGS                 
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA /THE EXCEPTION IS OCCASIONAL IFR MIXED                 
WITH THOSE MVFR CIGS AT KATY/. MOST OF THE CONVECTION FROM EARLIER              
THIS MORNING HAS VACATED TO MINNESOTA AND IOWA. HOWEVER...WSR-88D               
REFLECTIVITY SCANS ARE BEGINNING TO PIN-POINT NEW CONVECTION                    
DEVELOPING ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA. WHILE ISOLATED TO                 
WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE FOR THE                  
NEXT 3 TO 6 HOURS AT THE KPIR TERMINAL...A HIGHER PROBABILITY                   
EXISTS FOR SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM REDEVELOPMENT OVER THE KATY                      
TERMINAL LATER THIS AFTERNOON. IT IS BECOMING INCREASINGLY LIKELY               
THAT THE SCATTERED TO BROKEN MVFR CEILINGS WILL HOLD ON LONG                    
ENOUGH TO IMPACT THE KPIR...KABR...AND KATY WELL INTO THIS EVENING              
BEFORE GRADUAL DISSIPATION AND/OR MOVEMENT SOUTH AND EAST OUT OF                
THIS FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT. AMENDMENTS TO FOLLOW ACCORDINGLY.                 
&&                                                                              
.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
SD...NONE.                                                                      
MN...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
UPDATE...MOHR                                                                   
SHORT TERM...TMT                                                                
LONG TERM...KEEFE                                                               
AVIATION...DORN                                                                 
</pre> sd                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD                                            
352 AM CDT SUN SEP 30 2007                                                      
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT                                        
THE SHORT TERM IS FOCUSED ON ONGOING PRECIPITATION. THE MOST                    
DEVELOPED ACCORDING TO THE WSR-88D IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD                  
FRONT DRAPED THROUGH THIS AREA. AT 08Z THE FRONT IS JUST WEST OF                
AN KABR TO KPIR LINE AND MOVING EAST. AT THIS TIME THE NAM AND GFS              
ARE CLOSE WITH THE UPPER LEVEL H5 CLOSED LOW MOVING ALONG JUST                  
BEHIND THE FRONT. THE GFS IS JUST SLIGHTLY FASTER WITH THIS UPPER               
FEATURE BUT NOT ENOUGH TO MAKE A BIG DIFFERENCE IN THE FORECAST.                
CONVECTION IS NOTED BEHIND THE SURFACE FRONT AND AHEAD OF THE                   
UPPER LEVEL LOW AND TROUGH. THE 07Z RUC MODEL SHOWS H85 WIND OF                 
AROUND 45 KNOTS OVER OUR EASTERN AREA WITH THE NOSE OF A 60KT MAX               
MOVING INTO SOUTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA. IT ALSO DEPICTS A NORTHWEST                 
JET IN NORTHWESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA OF 43 KTS. BY 18Z THE H85 TROUGH               
AXIS IS MOVING OUT OF THE STATE TO THE EAST WITH THE H5 TROUGH                  
AXIS JUST WEST OF KABR. IN THE WEATHER GRIDS THE PRECIPITATION WAS              
TIMED TO THIS UPPER FEATURE AND ENDED BY AROUND 00Z. GFS IS                     
SHOWING MORE HANG BACK WRAP AROUND PRECIPITATION LINGERING IN THE FAR           
EAST. NAM DOES NOT SHOW THIS. THE GFS IS SHOWING THE BEST H7 LIFT               
IN WESTERN MINNESOTA TO DECIDED TO END IT AT 00Z. TYPICALLY WE                  
WOULD BE SLOW TO CLEAR WITH LINGERING WRAP AROUND CLOUDS. IN THIS               
CASE THE MODELS AGREE ON A QUICKLY REBUILDING H5 RIDGE AXIS OVER                
THIS AREA WITH A SURFACE HIGH OVER COLORADO WITH A SURFACE RIDGE                
OVER EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA. SO EXPECT CLOUDS TO BE PUSHED THROUGH                
QUICKER THAN USUAL. BY NOON MONDAY THE NEXT SURFACE TROUGH IS                   
FORMING IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES WITH A STRONG RETURN FLOW. THIS               
SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY.                                         
.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT                                     
THIS PERIOD OPENS WITH THE NEST SURFACE FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVING                   
THROUGH EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA. UNLIKE THE CURRENT SYSTEM THE UPPER               
SUPPORT FOR THIS NEXT SYSTEM WILL BE MUCH WEAKER AND THERE WILL                 
NOT BE AS MUCH MOISTURE TO WORK WITH. DID CARRY A MENTION OF RAIN               
SHOWERS TUESDAY WITH THIS FEATURE. THE CHANCE OF RAIN OR                        
THUNDERSTORMS WILL LARGELY BE EAST OF THIS AREA BY TUESDAY                      
AFTERNOON. UPPER LEVEL FLOW THEN GOES TO FAST WESTERLY UNTIL LATE               
THURSDAY WHEN SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS AN OLD BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL                 
BRING A CHANCE TO THE EAST PART OF THE AREA.                                    
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
WSR-88D IS SHOWING WIDESPREAD CONVECTION ACROSS THIS AREA AND                   
MOVING WITH THE COLD FRONT. THIS CONVECTION WILL END IN THE WEST                
PART OF THE AREA BY AROUND NOON. SHOWERS AND SOME CONVECTION WILL               
MOVE OUT OF THE AREA BY EARLY EVENING. CEILINGS WILL IMPROVE                    
QUICKLY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AS WILL VISIBILITY. BY EVENING                    
EXPECT ENTIRE AREA TO BE VFR WITH CEILINGS ABOVE 12K FT AND                     
UNRESTRICTED VISIBILITY.                                                        
&&                                                                              
.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
SD...NONE.                                                                      
MN...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHORT TERM...KEEFE                                                              
LONG TERM...KEEFE                                                               
AVIATION...KEEFE                                                                
</pre> sd                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD                                            
1041 AM CDT SAT SEP 29 2007                                                     
.UPDATE...                                                                      
ADJUSTED MAX T VALUES UP 2 TO 3 DEGREES ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL              
CWFA ZONES GIVEN STRENGTH OF WAA AND LOW LEVEL MIXING                           
TODAY...COUPLED WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKY CONDITION. ADJUSTED SKY-COVER             
DOWN ACCORDINGLY. STILL LOOKING AT SOME RECORDS POSSIBLY TIED OR                
BROKEN ACROSS CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA TODAY. BASED OFF THE RUC                     
MODEL...STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE OVER MN AND SE SODAK/NW IOWA                    
TODAY...LEAVING THE SERN CWFA ZONES IN THE 20 TO 30 MPH WITH 40                 
MPH GUST RANGE. ELSEWHERE...STRONG LOW LEVEL JET WINDS WILL FINISH              
MIXING OUT THIS MORNING...LEAVING THE WIND SPEEDS IN THE 10 TO 25               
MPH RANGE WITH SOME OCCASIONAL HIGHER GUSTS.                                    
STILL LOOKS LIKE SEVERE WEATHER IS POSSIBLE LATER THIS EVENING                  
ACROSS CENTRAL SODAK WHERE A DRY LINE IS EXPECTED TO                            
DEVELOP...WITH ADDITIONAL SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE              
AS A STRONG COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT.                
WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR.                                                       
EXPANDING THE EXTREME FIRE DANGER AREA TO INCLUDE CORSON...DEWEY                
AND STANLEY COUNTIES FOR RH VALUES NOW EXPECTED TO DROP DOWN TO                 
AROUND 15 TO 20 PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON BEHIND THE DRYLINE FEATURE               
THAT IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP TODAY. HOWEVER...AS THE                             
TEMPERATURE/DEWPOINT SPREAD INCREASES SUBSTANTIVELY THIS                        
AFTERNOON...THE WIND SPEEDS OUT ACROSS CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA ARE                 
EXPECTED TO DECREASE TO 10 TO 15 MPH...PERHAPS WITH AN OCCASIONAL               
GUST TO 20 MPH. SO...WIND SPEED CRITERIA FOR A RED FLAG WARNING                 
WILL NOT BE MET.                                                                
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION...                                                             
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT                                        
ALL ELEVATED CONVECTION HAS STAYED EAST AND SOUTH OF THE CWA EARLY              
THIS MORNING...MAINLY ACROSS MN AND FSD CWA. VERY STRONG LLJ IN                 
PLACE ACROSS THE EASTERN CWA ON THE ORDER OF 60 KNOTS. THIS HAS                 
ALLOWED SURFACE WINDS TO STAY UP MOST OF THE NIGHT...AS WELL AS                 
TEMPERATURES. MOST LOCATIONS IN THE 60S TO LOW 70S EARLY THIS                   
MORNING WITH WINDS 20 TO 30 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS.                              
WILL KEEP A SMALL AREA OF LOW POPS ACROSS THE FAR EAST THIS                     
MORNING TO ACCOUNT FOR ANY LLJ INDUCED ACTIVITY THAT MAY YET FIRE               
THIS MORNING. SATELLITE SHOWS ACCAS DEVELOPING TO THE SOUTH AND                 
MOVING TOWARDS THE FAR EASTERN CWA. ALTHOUGH...MOST ACTIVITY                    
SHOULD REMAIN EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA. THIS IS SUPPORTED BY NEW               
06Z NAM AND SREF DATA. MOST OF TODAY SHOULD REMAIN PRECIP FREE AND              
WILL HAVE TO WAIT UNTIL AFTER 21Z OR SO TO SEE PRECIP CHANCES                   
INCREASE ACROSS THE WESTERN CWA. IT WILL BE BREEZY/WINDY ONCE                   
AGAIN TODAY WITH SOUTH WINDS 25 TO 35 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS.                    
DEBATED ON ANOTHER WIND ADVISORY BUT IT APPEARS HIGHEST WINDS AT                
925/850 MB STAY JUST TO THE EAST AND SOUTH OF THE AREA. WIND                    
ADVISORIES WILL BORDER OUR FORECAST AREAS TO THE SOUTH FOR TODAY.               
WILL HAVE TO MONITOR TRENDS THROUGHOUT THE DAY FOR POSSIBLE                     
ADVISORY IF STRONGER WINDS CAN SNEAK INTO THE SOUTHERN AND                      
SOUTHEASTERN CWA. YESTERDAY FEATURED A RIBBON OF STRONG WINDS AT                
925/850 MB MOVING ACROSS THE CWA. TODAY IT APPEARS THIS AREA OF                 
STRONGER WINDS WILL RESIDE TO OUR SOUTHEAST. FIRE WX CONCERNS ONCE              
AGAIN TODAY WITH VERY HIGH TO EXTREME FIRE DANGER ACROSS CENTRAL                
SOUTH DAKOTA. RH VALUES WILL ONCE AGAIN DROP TO AROUND 30                       
PERCENT...GIVE OR TAKE...WITH GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS.                            
CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS SUPPORT POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE                    
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA BEGINNING LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND                 
LASTING THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. SPC DAY ONE OUTLOOK PUTS THE                 
ENTIRE CWA IN SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER LATE THIS AFTERNOON                
AND THIS EVENING. AS THE SYSTEM SLIDES THROUGH THE AREA SATURDAY                
NIGHT AND SUNDAY...APPEARS LIKELY THERE WILL BE A FAIRLY                        
WIDESPREAD AREA OF PRECIP...SOME OF WHICH COULD BE HEAVY AS PWATS               
RANGE FROM 1.50 TO 1.75 INCHES. MODELS ARE IN RATHER GOOD                       
AGREEMENT WITH THE DEPARTURE OF THIS SYSTEM...WITH THE WESTERN CWA              
CLEARING OUT BY LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THE DRYING/CLEARING WILL                 
WORK EAST TOWARDS THE EASTERN CWA BY SUNDAY EVENING.                            
.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT                                     
THE PERIOD OPENS WITH AN UPPER LEVEL H5 RIDGE OVER THE DAKOTAS.                 
DURING THE DAY MONDAY THIS UPPER RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE EAST              
AS PACIFIC ENERGY MOVES EAST ACROSS CANADA. AT THE SURFACE A LONG               
WAVE TROUGH IS MOVING INTO WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA BY AFTERNOON. THIS              
TROUGH STRENGTHENS AS AN UPPER LEVEL H5 TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE                 
ROCKIES. DID NOT MAKE MANY CHANGES TO GOING GRIDS AS PRECIPITATION              
AND TIMING SEEM WELL HANDLED. AS THIS FEATURE MOVES EAST THE UPPER              
FLOW TRANSITIONS TO FAST WESTERLY WEDNESDAY AND CONTINUES TO TURN               
MORE SOUTHWEST BY LATE WEDNESDAY AS A WEST COAST TROUGH SETS UP.                
OLD BAROCLINIC ZONE SETS UP THURSDAY. PLACEMENT IS NOT CERTAIN AS               
GFS PUTS IT INTO WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA WHILE NCEP MAN MACHINE MIX                
PUTS IT THROUGH THIS AREA. DID LEAVE GOING SLIGHT CHANCE GRIDS IN               
THE FAR NORTHWEST PART OF THIS AREA. CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH FOR                 
THIS EVENT BUT WILL LEAVE AS IS UNTIL LATER MODEL RUNS RESOLVE THE              
TIMING AND POSITION. FEW CHANGES WERE MADE TO TEMPERATURE GRIDS AS              
GOING GRIDS HAVE GOOD HANDLE ON TEMPERATURE.                                    
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
AS THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES INTO THE HIGH PLAINS...THE                 
JET STREAM WILL SHIFT NORTHWARD AND STRENGTHEN. IN THE MEANTIME...A COLD        
FRONT IN MONTANA/WYOMING WILL DRIFT EASTWARD TODAY. THE TWO WILL                
PHASE OVER SOUTH DAKOTA THIS EVENING. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO                  
DOMINATE THROUGH MOST OF TODAY AND EARLY EVENING...WITH CIGS ABOVE              
10KFT...AND SOUTHERLY WINDS GUSTING ABOVE 30KTS.                                
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION THIS EVENING AND INTO THE               
OVERNIGHT HOURS. THIS WILL PROVIDE THE FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORM                   
ACTIVITY...PRODUCING INTERMITTENT MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS.                          
THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST                              
OVERNIGHT...PRODUCING WIDESPREAD LOWERING OF CIGS AND REDUCE VIS                
WITH RAIN. PERSISTENT MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE FROM THE LATE                
NIGHT/EARLY MORNING HOURS AND LASTING THROUGH MUCH OF SUNDAY.                   
&&                                                                              
.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
SD...NONE.                                                                      
MN...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
UPDATE...DORN                                                                   
SHORT TERM...TMT                                                                
LONG TERM...KEEFE                                                               
AVIATION...CONNELLY                                                             
</pre> sd                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX                                      
444 PM CDT SUN SEP 30 2007                                                      
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
FAST MOVING UPPER LOW LIFTING NEWD INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS WITH                 
ASSOCD COLD FRONT PUSHING INTO S PLAINS. MEANWHILE PROMINENT MID                
LEVEL RIDGE AXIS IS ESTABLISHED ACRS W TX. NAM SUGGESTS COLD FRONT              
WILL NEAR NRN CWFA...BUT STRUGGLE TO MAKE IT MUCH FARTHER S AS SFC              
ANTICYCLONE TENDS TO REMAIN UNDERNEATH SLIGHTLY CONFLUENT NW MID                
LEVEL FLOW ACRS CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS. STRONG 3HR MSL PRESSURE                
RISES ERN CO/WRN KS SUGGEST COLD FRONT WILL BE FARTHER S. HAVE                  
OPTED TO INCORPORATE RUC INTO SHORT TERM PORTION TO REFLECT FRONT               
FARTHER S. AS FAR AS CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL GOES...MTNS AND VICINITY              
WILL HAVE BEST CHANCE INTO EARLY EVENING DUE TO LOCATION OF                     
THETA-E RIDGE...POSSIBILITY OF SHRTWV/S FROM THE S...AND AS WRN                 
AREAS ARE FARTHER REMOVED FROM 5H RIDGE AXIS. ISOLD STRONG MULTI-               
CELL STORMS WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE WITH 7H-5H LR/S NEAR 7 C/KM AND              
0-6KM SHEAR NEAR 20KTS. IF CONVECTION IS REALIZED ALONG BOUNDARY                
THEN IT MAY HAVE THE NEEDED PUSH TO MAKE IT INTO PB...OTHERWISE                 
WILL OPT TO KEEP WIND SHIFT N. WRT TO MORNING LOW TEMPS THEY HAVE               
BEEN TRENDING UPWARD OVER THE LAST 5 MORNINGS. PART OF THIS HAS                 
BEEN DUE TO WINDS STAYING UP OVERNIGHT IN ASSOCN WITH LLJ.                      
ALTHOUGH SFC DWPNTS WILL REMAIN UP (M60S) ACRS PB THE PW/S IN                   
GENERAL WILL DECREASE AND WINDS WILL BE LESS SO WILL GO SLIGHTLY                
COOLER THAN THIS MORNING...BUT MID TO UPPER 60S ARE STILL WELL                  
ABOVE NORMAL.                                                                   
BY MON P.M. MID LEVEL FLOW WILL BUCKLE ACRS THE GREAT BASIN AS                  
SHRTWV TROF MOVES INTO THE REGION WITH PATTERN SOMEWHAT PROGRESSIVE             
WITH AFOREMENTIONED RIDGE GETTING PUSHED E WITH WELL ESTABLISHED SW             
MID LEVEL FLOW ACRS CWFA. THIS SW MID LEVEL FLOW WILL BE ABLE TO TAP            
PACIFIC MSTR WITH DECENT MSTR FETCH E OF MID LEVEL TROF AXIS. SHRTWV            
TROF/S IN ADVANCE OF MAIN TROF AXIS WILL BE FAVORED W OF CWFA WHERE             
STRONGER SW MID LEVEL FLOW WILL BE AND ATTP WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP               
BEST W MON. AS THIS SYSTEM PROGRESS E TUE THE CHANCE OF RAIN WILL SHIFT         
E INTO THE PLAINS WITH THETA-E RIDGE OVERHEAD AND SUFFICIENT LIFT               
PROVIDE BY MID LEVEL TROF. NAM ALSO SUGGEST MODEST LOW LEVEL                    
CONVERGENCE WITH WEAK SFC LOW ACRS SE NM...COLD FRONT IN THE S                  
PLAINS...AND SFC TROF ACRS LOWER TRANS PECOS. CURRENT FCST HAS THIS             
TREND OF PUSHING HIER POPS E TUE...HOWEVER WILL INCREASE CENTRAL/N              
PB INTO SCT POPS. PROBABLY COOLER TUE WITH CLOUD COVER. PROGRESSIVE             
NATURE OF THIS TROF WILL FAVOR COLD FRONT PUSHING S THRU PB BY WED              
A.M. AND WILL TEND TOWARD DRY FCST N WITH ISOLD/SLGHT CHC POPS S.               
THUR SW FLOW AT 7H INCREASES TO AROUND 15KTS WITH WELL DEVELOPED LEE            
TROF. LOW LEVEL MSTR WILL LIKELY STILL HOLD THUR SO ISOLD POPS STILL            
WARRANTED IN THE HIER TERRAIN. DRY AIR BECOMES APPARENT IN THE MODEL            
DATA BY FRI P.M. WITH LOW LEVEL THERMAL RIDGE SUGGESTING TEMPS COULD            
BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL INTO SAT. MEANWHILE 7H WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO              
INCREASE INTO SAT WITH VERY DRY AIR MAKING EWD AT LEAST INTO SE NM              
PLAINS AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. GFS/ECMWF IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT SHARP            
5H TROF AXIS WILL PASS PUSHING COLD FRONT THRU...PROBABLY EARLY SUN.            
ATTP WILL INCREASE TEMPS SOME FRI/SAT PER 85H TEMPS AND NOTE COOLER             
WX FOR SUNDAY.                                                                  
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
BIG SPRING TX              69  90  69  86  /  10  10  20  30                    
CARLSBAD NM                63  86  65  89  /  20  20  20  30                    
DRYDEN TX                  69  89  71  94  /  20  10  20  20                    
FORT STOCKTON TX           68  90  71  88  /  20  10  20  30                    
GUADALUPE PASS TX          62  83  62  82  /  20  30  20  20                    
HOBBS NM                   66  87  68  86  /  20  20  20  30                    
MARFA TX                   57  82  59  82  /  20  20  20  20                    
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    67  90  68  87  /  10  10  20  30                    
ODESSA TX                  68  91  69  87  /  20  20  20  30                    
WINK TX                    69  95  71  90  /  20  20  20  30                    
&&                                                                              
.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
NM...NONE.                                                                      
TX...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</pre> tx                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX                                      
1038 AM CDT SUN SEP 30 2007                                                     
.SHORT TERM...CONVECTION BEING SUPPRESSED ACROSS CWFA THIS                      
MORNING...PERHAPS DUE TO A MIN VORT LOBE SHOWING UP ON RECENT RUC               
RUNS. HAVE ADJUSTED POPS INLAND TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS                             
SUPPRESSION...ALTHOUGH AFTERNOON HEATING MIGHT BE ENOUGH TO                     
TRIGGER SCATTERED SEABREEZE ACTIVITY THIS AFTERNOON.                            
HIGH TEMPERATURES STILL LOOK REASONABLE DESPITE MORE SUN THAN                   
EXPECTED...SO WILL RETAIN PREVIOUS TEMPERATURE GRIDS.                           
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 401 AM CDT SUN SEP 30 2007/                         
SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)...TROPICAL MOISTURE/INSTABILITY               
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT AND ONLY SLOWLY DECREASE MONDAY(PER               
THE FAVORED SLOWER UKMET/NAM SOLUTIONS). SOME DYNAMICAL FORCING WILL            
EXIST TODAY...OTHERWISE COASTAL CONVERGENCE WILL TRANSITION TO SEA              
BREEZE BOUNDARY FORCING BOTH DAYS. HIGH-END CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS               
TODAY WILL LOWER TO MOSTLY CHANCE POPS TONIGHT/MONDAY. SHOWED A                 
TRANSITION TO LOWER POPS EACH AFTERNOON OVER THE EAST AS THE SEA                
BREEZE BOUNDARY PENETRATES INLAND FASTER THAN YESTERDAY. EXPECT                 
COASTAL WATERSPOUTS TO BE WEAKER TODAY AS A WELL-DEFINED COASTAL                
TROUGH WILL NOT BE PRESENT. JUST SOME MINOR TWEAKS TO THE PREVIOUS              
TEMPERATURE GRIDS.                                                              
AVIATION...MVFR CIGS/VSBYS WITH LOCALIZED IFR CIGS/VSBYS CAN BE                 
EXPECTED UNTIL 15Z...THEN VFR CIGS WILL PREVAIL INTO THE EARLY                  
EVENING. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS CONVECTION WILL RESULT IN LOW-END                
MVFR CIGS/VSBYS INTO THE EARLY EVENING.                                         
MARINE...SCATTERED CONVECTION DURING THE MORNING HOURS WILL                     
TRANSITION TO ISOLATED CONVECTION DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING                  
HOURS. SOME MARGINAL SCEC CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE                    
NEARSHORE/OFFSHORE WATERS THROUGH MONDAY.                                       
LONG TERM (MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)...THE MID LEVEL                       
ANTICYCLONE OVER THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES THIS MORNING WILL                  
SLOWLY TRANSLATE TO THE SOUTHWEST BY TUESDAY MORNING. THE                       
MID LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WILL BE OVER THE SOUTH TEXAS REGION                        
ON TUESDAY WITH MUCH DRIER AIR FROM THE NORTHEAST INVADING                      
THE COASTAL BEND. THIS RIDGE AXIS AND DRIER AIR WILL BE IN                      
CONTROL OF THE WEATHER PATTERN FROM TUESDAY UNTIL THURSDAY.                     
REMOVED MENTION OF DIURNAL SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER THE                          
COASTAL PLAINS DURING THIS PERIOD AND LOWERED MINIMUM TEMPS.                    
THE GFS/ECMWF/UKMET SHOW A TUTT LOW DEVELOPING OVER THE FLORIDA                 
STRAITS BY MONDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL SLOWLY MOVE WEST ACROSS THE                 
GULF OF MEXICO AND BE IN THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO OFF THE LOWER               
TEXAS COAST BY THURSDAY EVENING. THE GFS IS A LITTLE LESS ORGANIZED             
THAN THE ECMWF BY FRIDAY AND FOR NOW WILL LEAN TOWARD THE GFS                   
SOLUTION. WILL INTRODUCE POPS ALONG THE COAST OVERNIGHT THURSDAY                
NIGHT...WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS FRIDAY.                  
INCREASED POPS TO LOW END CHANCE BY SATURDAY. WILL BE WATCHING                  
FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR THIS SYSTEM TO BECOME A BIT BETTER                        
ORGANIZED WITH RESPECT TO A TROPICAL NATURE...ECMWF SHOWS THE                   
UPPER LEVEL SHEAR WEAKENING BY THE TIME IT MOVES INTO THE                       
WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO. TIME WILL TELL.                                         
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
CORPUS CHRISTI    86  77  88  72  90  /  70  30  30  10  10                     
VICTORIA          87  74  90  68  90  /  50  20  20  10  10                     
LAREDO            91  76  92  74  97  /  40  40  40  20  10                     
ALICE             88  75  90  70  92  /  40  30  40  10  10                     
ROCKPORT          86  79  88  74  89  /  70  30  30  10  10                     
COTULLA           89  74  90  71  94  /  40  50  40  20  10                     
KINGSVILLE        87  76  89  71  91  /  60  30  40  10  10                     
NAVY CORPUS       86  80  87  76  88  /  70  30  30  10  10                     
&&                                                                              
.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
TX...NONE.                                                                      
GM...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
JV/71...SHORT TERM                                                              
MG/88...LONG TERM                                                               
</pre> tx                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX                                   
846 PM CDT SAT SEP 29 2007                                                      
.DISCUSSION...SATELLITE AND RADAR IMAGES INDICATE THE CONVECTION                
OVER THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA EARLIER THIS EVENING HAS                  
COME TO AN END FOR NOW. MSAS SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATED A WEAK                  
BOUNDARY ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS SEPARATING THE DRIER AIR ACROSS                 
NORTHEAST TX AND THE MOIST AIR ACROSS SOUTH TX. WITH THE RUC80                  
1000-500MB WIND STREAMLINE ANALYSIS INDICATING A LARGE ANTICYCLONE              
ACROSS THE EASTERN UNITED STATES...MOISTURE OVER THE WESTERN GULF               
OF MEXICO AND NORTHEAST MEXICO WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHWARD                  
TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY. WILL GO AHEAD AND LOWER POPS TONIGHT BUT                   
KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS               
THE SOUTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE CWA WHERE MOISTURE REMAINS HIGHEST.               
32                                                                              
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 315 PM CDT SAT SEP 29 2007/                         
SCATTERED COVER OF SHRA/TSRA MAINLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-10 AND                 
WEST OF I-45 FROM GLS-HOU. A LOT OF STORMS STILL ONGOING IN THE                 
LARGE TROPICAL PLUME THAT IS EVIDENT OVER THE WESTERN 1/4 OF THE                
GULF. EXPECT THE SHRA/TSRA TO CONTINUE TO FIRE OVER THE GULF                    
THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT AND AFTER THE LOSS OF HEATING INLAND AROUND 6              
PM WANE ONLY TO REDEVELOP AFTER MIDNIGHT MAINLY OVER THE SW ZONES.              
CLOUD COVER AND WET GROUND THERE MAY ALSO HELP TO KEEP MINS UP                  
ABOVE CURRENT FORECAST MIN TEMPS IN THE 72-74 DEGREE RANGE. THE                 
MID- UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTER OVER THE CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON                
SHOULD WEAKEN AND SHIFT WEST INTO SOUTH- SOUTHCENTRAL TEXAS BY                  
SUNDAY MORNING. AREA WILL STILL HAVE DECENT INSTABILITY TO WORK                 
WITH SUNDAY AND COMBINED WITH THE GULF MOISTURE EXPECTING TO SEE                
SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA WEST TAPERING OFF TO THE EAST. MORE CLOUD                   
COVER SC/CU/CI SHOULD BE PRESENT IN THE MORNING OVER THE WESTERN                
ZONES IN THE MORNING TRANSITIONING TO CU/CI BY MID MORNING. THE                 
RIDGE STEADILY MOVES WEST BUT HOLDS SWAY THROUGH TUESDAY FOR SETX               
WITH THE AREA DRYING OUT...HENCE THE LOWER POPS. WEDNESDAY AND                  
BEYOND GET MORE TROUBLESOME AS TROUGH CUTS OFF OVER FLORIDA AND                 
UPPER CYCLONIC CIRCULATION DRIFTS WEST OVER THE GULF...GFS/ECMWF                
DIVERGE IN TRACK AND INTENSITY AND RUN TO RUN CONTINUITY IS                     
POOR...BUT SUFFICE IT TO SAY THAT THE PATTERN LOOKS TO BE                       
FAVORABLE FOR AT LEAST SUBTROPICAL DEVELOPMENT AND PERHAPS MORE BY              
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. STAY TUNED.                                                
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION WILL REMAIN ABOVE CLIMO THROUGH THE              
PERIOD.                                                                         
GFS ALSO PAINTING A STRONG PACIFIC FRONT TO PLUNGE SOUTH INTO THE               
CWA NEXT WEEKEND BUT THIS IS TIED TO THE GULF MOISTURE SURGING                  
NORTH AND INTERACTING WITH THE TROUGH SWINGING THROUGH THE                      
NORTHERN PLAINS...GFS HASN`T DONE SO WELL IN THE LAST TEN DAYS                  
WITH THE PATTERN OVER THE WESTERN U.S. SO AM SKEPTICAL AT THIS                  
TIME IN SEEING THIS MAGNITUDE OF A FRONT COME TO FRUITION.                      
45/33                                                                           
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      72  90  72  92  69 /   0  30  20   0  10             
HOUSTON (IAH)              72  90  73  90  70 /  10  20  20   0  10             
GALVESTON (GLS)            78  87  80  88  78 /   0  20  20   0  10             
&&                                                                              
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
TX...NONE.                                                                      
GM...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
DISCUSSION...32                                                                 
AVIATION/MARINE...47                                                            
</pre> tx                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX                                            
1237 PM CDT SAT SEP 29 2007                                                     
.AVIATION...                                                                    
MVFR CIGS ARE LIFTING ACROSS THE PANHANDLES BUT SHOULD AFFECT KAMA              
THROUGH AROUND 19Z. OTHERWISE...THE MAIN CONCERN FOR THE DAYTIME                
PERIOD WILL BE THE STRONG WINDS. SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO                
REMAIN AROUND 30 KTS SUSTAINED THROUGH EARLY EVENING WITH GUSTS                 
AROUND 40 KTS. AT THIS TIME...I DO THINK THAT WIND GUSTS AT KAMA WILL           
REMAIN BELOW THE 40 KT THRESHOLD THAT TRIGGERS AN AVIATION WEATHER              
WARNING...BUT THIS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED THROUGH THE EVENING.           
THE OTHER CONCERN WILL BE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES THIS EVENING. THE BEST           
OPPORTUNITY APPEARS TO BE AFTER 00Z THIS EVENING AS THE IMPRESSIVE              
MID/UPPER-LEVEL TROF APPROACHES THE AREA. I HAVE INCLUDED PROB30                
GROUPS BETWEEN 03-07Z AT KDHT/KGUY WITH CB REMARKS AT KAMA. WE COULD            
ALSO SEE SOME LOW STRATUS AT KAMA DURING THE MORNING HOURS TOMORROW             
BUT A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN ZONES BY MID/LATE                  
MORNING...REACHING KAMA LIKELY NEAR OR JUST AFTER 18Z.                          
JUST AS AN FYI...THE TRANSCRIBED WEATHER BULLLITENS /TWEBS/ FOR THE             
CONUS WILL BE DISCONTINUED THIS EVENING AT 00Z.                                 
JOHNSON                                                                         
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 654 AM CDT SAT SEP 29 2007/                         
AVIATION...                                                                     
WIND WILL BE PRIMARY CONCERN TDA.  DEEPENING SFC TROF OVER ERN                  
COLO/NM WILL SUPPORT SUSTAINED SFC WINDS OF 25 TO 30KT BEGINNING                
AROUND 15Z WHEN MRNG INVERSION STARTS TO BREAK.  GUSTS AROUND 40KT              
EXPECTED AT DHT AND GUY...WHERE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE                       
TIGHTER...AS WILL HEIGHT GRADIENT THRU H7.  EXPECT GUSTS TO REMAIN              
JUST BELOW 40KT AT AMA...WHERE GRADIENTS WILL BE NOT AS TIGHT.                  
ISOLATED TSTMS EXPECTED THIS AFTN OVER NWRN PART OF FCST                        
AREA...INCLUDING AROUND DHT AND GUY.  ISOLATED TO SCT TSTMS EXPECTED            
THIS EVE AND TNGT...AS UPPER SUPPORT STRENGTHENS AND LOW-LEVEL JET              
DEVELOPS.  APART FROM BRIEF MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS IN TSTMS...VFR FCST             
CONTINUES NEXT 24 HOURS.                                                        
COCKRELL                                                                        
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 358 AM CDT SAT SEP 29 2007/                          
DISCUSSION...                                                                   
A FEW FORECAST ISSUES FOR THE SHORT TERM. THE FIRST WILL BE THE                 
STRENGTH OF THE WINDS TODAY. STRONG LL JET EVIDENT FROM TUCUMCARI               
PROFILER DATA WITH RUC ANALYSIS SHOWING A 50KT TO 55KT JET DIPPING              
OVER THE PANHANDLES THIS MORNING. MODELS SUGGEST THE SFC TROUGH                 
STRETCHING SOUTH ALONG THE LEE SIDE OF THE ROCKIES INTO THE                     
PANHANDLES WILL STRENGTHEN THROUGH THE DAY. SFC PRESSURE AND 700MB              
HEIGHT GRADIENTS WILL BE TIGHTEST ACROSS THE NORTHWEST CWA. SO                  
DECIDED TO ISSUE A WIND ADVISORY FOR THE NORTHWEST TEXAS AND CENTRAL            
TO WESTERN OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES THROUGH 03Z TONIGHT...WITH SUSTAINED             
WINDS AROUND 30KT AND GUSTS NEAR 40KT. WITH THE GRADIENTS NOT AS                
INTENSE FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST...DECIDED AGAINST THE WINDS ADVISORY             
FOR THE REST OF THE PANHANDLES. HOWEVER...WITH ANY DAYTIME                      
MIXING...THE STRONG LL JET WILL BRING WINDS NEAR ADVISORY CRITERIA              
FOR THE CENTRAL TO NORTHEAST TEXAS AND EASTERN OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES.             
AS FOR PRECIP CHANCES...UPPER LOW OVER THE WESTERN US WILL PUSH EAST            
TOWARD THE PANHANDLES...THEN LIFT TO THE NORTHEAST ACROSS COLORADO              
AND KANSAS. SO UPPER FLOW OVER PANHANDLES WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE                
SOUTHWEST TODAY. THINKING THERE WILL BE SOME RECOVERY TIME FROM THIS            
MORNINGS STORMS...SO LEFT THE DRY FORECAST IN FOR MOST OF THE                   
PANHANDLES THROUGH 18Z. THEN KEPT THE SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS IN           
FOR THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS WITH THE HIGHEST POPS ACROSS THE            
NORTHERN CWA. INSTABILITY WILL NOT BE AS IMPRESSIVE AS FRIDAY...SO              
THINKING THE PRIMARY STORM INITIATION MECHANISM WILL BE THE UPPER               
TROUGH WITH EMBEDDED SHORT WAVES RATHER THAN DAYTIME HEATING INDUCED            
STORMS...EVEN THOUGH CAPPING SHOULD NOT BE AN ISSUE. THE TROUGH THEN            
DRAGS ACROSS THE PANHANDLES SUNDAY MORNING SO LEFT POPS IN THROUGH              
18Z SUNDAY. AS THE TROUGH LIFTS EAST...A COLD FRONT WILL SNEAK DOWN             
ALONG THE ROCKIES INTO THE PANHANDLES SUNDAY AFTERNOON...SO LOWERED             
TEMPS A FEW DEGREES ACROSS THE NORTH. THIS FRONT IS MORE PACIFIC IN             
NATURE THOUGH SO TEMPS SHOULD ONLY FALL INTO THE UPPER 70S.                     
A SECOND UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE TOWARD THE PANHANDLES MONDAY INTO               
TUESDAY. MODELS HAVE SLOWED DOWN THE TROUGH FROM PREVIOUS RUNS SO               
LIKEWISE PUSHED BACK POPS TO FOCUS ON THE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY             
TIME FRAME. ALSO INCREASED POPS INTO THE CHANCE RANGE. THIS SECOND              
UPPER TROUGH WILL BRING ANOTHER PACIFIC COLD FRONT SO TRENDED A BIT             
LOWER THAN GUIDANCE ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN ZONES. AFTER                 
TUESDAY...UPPER FLOW WILL TRANSITION SLOWLY FROM ZONAL BACK TO                  
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AHEAD OF YET ANOTHER APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH.             
MODELS ARE NOT YET SURE HOW TO HANDLE THIS THIRD UPPER TROUGH...SO              
DECIDED TO HOLD OFF ON POPS FOR NOW. BUT IF CURRENT TREND                       
CONTINUES...THINKING THE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT COMBINED WITH LL                  
MOISTURE RETURN WILL CONTRIBUTE TO ISOLATED SHOWERS.                            
OTHERWISE...WENT WITH GUIDANCE TEMPS THROUGH THE EXTENDED AND STAYED            
DRY AFTER TUESDAY.                                                              
JJB                                                                             
&&                                                                              
.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
TX...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING               
     ZONES: DALLAM...HARTLEY...SHERMAN.                                         
OK...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING               
     ZONES: CIMARRON...TEXAS.                                                   
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
24/11                                                                           
</pre> tx                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX                                            
654 AM CDT SAT SEP 29 2007                                                      
.AVIATION...                                                                    
WIND WILL BE PRIMARY CONCERN TDA.  DEEPENING SFC TROF OVER ERN                  
COLO/NM WILL SUPPORT SUSTAINED SFC WINDS OF 25 TO 30KT BEGINNING                
AROUND 15Z WHEN MRNG INVERSION STARTS TO BREAK.  GUSTS AROUND 40KT              
EXPECTED AT DHT AND GUY...WHERE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE                       
TIGHTER...AS WILL HEIGHT GRADIENT THRU H7.  EXPECT GUSTS TO REMAIN              
JUST BELOW 40KT AT AMA...WHERE GRADIENTS WILL BE NOT AS TIGHT.                  
ISOLATED TSTMS EXPECTED THIS AFTN OVER NWRN PART OF FCST                        
AREA...INCLUDING AROUND DHT AND GUY.  ISOLATED TO SCT TSTMS EXPECTED            
THIS EVE AND TNGT...AS UPPER SUPPORT STRENGTHENS AND LOW-LEVEL JET              
DEVELOPS.  APART FROM BRIEF MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS IN TSTMS...VFR FCST             
CONTINUES NEXT 24 HOURS.                                                        
COCKRELL                                                                        
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 358 AM CDT SAT SEP 29 2007/                         
DISCUSSION...                                                                   
A FEW FORECAST ISSUES FOR THE SHORT TERM. THE FIRST WILL BE THE                 
STRENGTH OF THE WINDS TODAY. STRONG LL JET EVIDENT FROM TUCUMCARI               
PROFILER DATA WITH RUC ANALYSIS SHOWING A 50KT TO 55KT JET DIPPING              
OVER THE PANHANDLES THIS MORNING. MODELS SUGGEST THE SFC TROUGH                 
STRETCHING SOUTH ALONG THE LEE SIDE OF THE ROCKIES INTO THE                     
PANHANDLES WILL STRENGTHEN THROUGH THE DAY. SFC PRESSURE AND 700MB              
HEIGHT GRADIENTS WILL BE TIGHTEST ACROSS THE NORTHWEST CWA. SO                  
DECIDED TO ISSUE A WIND ADVISORY FOR THE NORTHWEST TEXAS AND CENTRAL            
TO WESTERN OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES THROUGH 03Z TONIGHT...WITH SUSTAINED             
WINDS AROUND 30KT AND GUSTS NEAR 40KT. WITH THE GRADIENTS NOT AS                
INTENSE FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST...DECIDED AGAINST THE WINDS ADVISORY             
FOR THE REST OF THE PANHANDLES. HOWEVER...WITH ANY DAYTIME                      
MIXING...THE STRONG LL JET WILL BRING WINDS NEAR ADVISORY CRITERIA              
FOR THE CENTRAL TO NORTHEAST TEXAS AND EASTERN OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES.             
AS FOR PRECIP CHANCES...UPPER LOW OVER THE WESTERN US WILL PUSH EAST            
TOWARD THE PANHANDLES...THEN LIFT TO THE NORTHEAST ACROSS COLORADO              
AND KANSAS. SO UPPER FLOW OVER PANHANDLES WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE                
SOUTHWEST TODAY. THINKING THERE WILL BE SOME RECOVERY TIME FROM THIS            
MORNINGS STORMS...SO LEFT THE DRY FORECAST IN FOR MOST OF THE                   
PANHANDLES THROUGH 18Z. THEN KEPT THE SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS IN           
FOR THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS WITH THE HIGHEST POPS ACROSS THE            
NORTHERN CWA. INSTABILITY WILL NOT BE AS IMPRESSIVE AS FRIDAY...SO              
THINKING THE PRIMARY STORM INITIATION MECHANISM WILL BE THE UPPER               
TROUGH WITH EMBEDDED SHORT WAVES RATHER THAN DAYTIME HEATING INDUCED            
STORMS...EVEN THOUGH CAPPING SHOULD NOT BE AN ISSUE. THE TROUGH THEN            
DRAGS ACROSS THE PANHANDLES SUNDAY MORNING SO LEFT POPS IN THROUGH              
18Z SUNDAY. AS THE TROUGH LIFTS EAST...A COLD FRONT WILL SNEAK DOWN             
ALONG THE ROCKIES INTO THE PANHANDLES SUNDAY AFTERNOON...SO LOWERED             
TEMPS A FEW DEGREES ACROSS THE NORTH. THIS FRONT IS MORE PACIFIC IN             
NATURE THOUGH SO TEMPS SHOULD ONLY FALL INTO THE UPPER 70S.                     
A SECOND UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE TOWARD THE PANHANDLES MONDAY INTO               
TUESDAY. MODELS HAVE SLOWED DOWN THE TROUGH FROM PREVIOUS RUNS SO               
LIKEWISE PUSHED BACK POPS TO FOCUS ON THE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY             
TIME FRAME. ALSO INCREASED POPS INTO THE CHANCE RANGE. THIS SECOND              
UPPER TROUGH WILL BRING ANOTHER PACIFIC COLD FRONT SO TRENDED A BIT             
LOWER THAN GUIDANCE ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN ZONES. AFTER                 
TUESDAY...UPPER FLOW WILL TRANSITION SLOWLY FROM ZONAL BACK TO                  
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AHEAD OF YET ANOTHER APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH.             
MODELS ARE NOT YET SURE HOW TO HANDLE THIS THIRD UPPER TROUGH...SO              
DECIDED TO HOLD OFF ON POPS FOR NOW. BUT IF CURRENT TREND                       
CONTINUES...THINKING THE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT COMBINED WITH LL                  
MOISTURE RETURN WILL CONTRIBUTE TO ISOLATED SHOWERS.                            
OTHERWISE...WENT WITH GUIDANCE TEMPS THROUGH THE EXTENDED AND STAYED            
DRY AFTER TUESDAY.                                                              
JJB                                                                             
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
AMARILLO TX                81  61  80  59  83 /   5  20  20   5  20             
BEAVER OK                  84  63  84  56  88 /   5  30  20   5  10             
BOISE CITY OK              83  55  75  51  83 /  20  30  10   5  20             
BORGER TX                  85  66  83  62  87 /  10  30  20   5  10             
BOYS RANCH TX              86  63  83  58  87 /  10  20  20   5  20             
CANYON TX                  81  62  84  57  85 /   5  20  20   5  20             
CLARENDON TX               82  63  85  63  83 /   5  20  20   5  10             
DALHART TX                 84  57  78  53  83 /  20  30  10   5  20             
GUYMON OK                  86  64  79  54  88 /  20  30  10   5  20             
HEREFORD TX                83  62  86  55  83 /  10  20  20   5  20             
LIPSCOMB TX                82  64  86  58  86 /   5  30  20   5  10             
PAMPA TX                   81  63  82  63  83 /   5  20  20   5  10             
SHAMROCK TX                85  64  87  63  85 /   5  20  20   5  10             
WELLINGTON TX              86  65  88  65  85 /   5  20  20   5  10             
&&                                                                              
.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
TX...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING               
     ZONES: DALLAM...HARTLEY...SHERMAN.                                         
OK...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING               
     ZONES: CIMARRON...TEXAS.                                                   
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
03/14                                                                           
</pre> tx                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX                                            
358 AM CDT SAT SEP 29 2007                                                      
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
A FEW FORECAST ISSUES FOR THE SHORT TERM. THE FIRST WILL BE THE                 
STRENGTH OF THE WINDS TODAY. STRONG LL JET EVIDENT FROM TUCUMCARI               
PROFILER DATA WITH RUC ANALYSIS SHOWING A 50KT TO 55KT JET DIPPING              
OVER THE PANHANDLES THIS MORNING. MODELS SUGGEST THE SFC TROUGH                 
STRETCHING SOUTH ALONG THE LEE SIDE OF THE ROCKIES INTO THE                     
PANHANDLES WILL STRENGTHEN THROUGH THE DAY. SFC PRESSURE AND 700MB              
HEIGHT GRADIENTS WILL BE TIGHTEST ACROSS THE NORTHWEST CWA. SO                  
DECIDED TO ISSUE A WIND ADVISORY FOR THE NORTHWEST TEXAS AND CENTRAL            
TO WESTERN OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES THROUGH 03Z TONIGHT...WITH SUSTAINED             
WINDS AROUND 30KT AND GUSTS NEAR 40KT. WITH THE GRADIENTS NOT AS                
INTENSE FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST...DECIDED AGAINST THE WINDS ADVISORY             
FOR THE REST OF THE PANHANDLES. HOWEVER...WITH ANY DAYTIME                      
MIXING...THE STRONG LL JET WILL BRING WINDS NEAR ADVISORY CRITERIA              
FOR THE CENTRAL TO NORTHEAST TEXAS AND EASTERN OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES.             
AS FOR PRECIP CHANCES...UPPER LOW OVER THE WESTERN US WILL PUSH EAST            
TOWARD THE PANHANDLES...THEN LIFT TO THE NORTHEAST ACROSS COLORADO              
AND KANSAS. SO UPPER FLOW OVER PANHANDLES WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE                
SOUTHWEST TODAY. THINKING THERE WILL BE SOME RECOVERY TIME FROM THIS            
MORNINGS STORMS...SO LEFT THE DRY FORECAST IN FOR MOST OF THE                   
PANHANDLES THROUGH 18Z. THEN KEPT THE SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS IN           
FOR THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS WITH THE HIGHEST POPS ACROSS THE            
NORTHERN CWA. INSTABILITY WILL NOT BE AS IMPRESSIVE AS FRIDAY...SO              
THINKING THE PRIMARY STORM INITIATION MECHANISM WILL BE THE UPPER               
TROUGH WITH EMBEDDED SHORT WAVES RATHER THAN DAYTIME HEATING INDUCED            
STORMS...EVEN THOUGH CAPPING SHOULD NOT BE AN ISSUE. THE TROUGH THEN            
DRAGS ACROSS THE PANHANDLES SUNDAY MORNING SO LEFT POPS IN THROUGH              
18Z SUNDAY. AS THE TROUGH LIFTS EAST...A COLD FRONT WILL SNEAK DOWN             
ALONG THE ROCKIES INTO THE PANHANDLES SUNDAY AFTERNOON...SO LOWERED             
TEMPS A FEW DEGREES ACROSS THE NORTH. THIS FRONT IS MORE PACIFIC IN             
NATURE THOUGH SO TEMPS SHOULD ONLY FALL INTO THE UPPER 70S.                     
A SECOND UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE TOWARD THE PANHANDLES MONDAY INTO               
TUESDAY. MODELS HAVE SLOWED DOWN THE TROUGH FROM PREVIOUS RUNS SO               
LIKEWISE PUSHED BACK POPS TO FOCUS ON THE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY             
TIME FRAME. ALSO INCREASED POPS INTO THE CHANCE RANGE. THIS SECOND              
UPPER TROUGH WILL BRING ANOTHER PACIFIC COLD FRONT SO TRENDED A BIT             
LOWER THAN GUIDANCE ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN ZONES. AFTER                 
TUESDAY...UPPER FLOW WILL TRANSITION SLOWLY FROM ZONAL BACK TO                  
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AHEAD OF YET ANOTHER APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH.             
MODELS ARE NOT YET SURE HOW TO HANDLE THIS THIRD UPPER TROUGH...SO              
DECIDED TO HOLD OFF ON POPS FOR NOW. BUT IF CURRENT TREND                       
CONTINUES...THINKING THE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT COMBINED WITH LL                  
MOISTURE RETURN WILL CONTRIBUTE TO ISOLATED SHOWERS.                            
OTHERWISE...WENT WITH GUIDANCE TEMPS THROUGH THE EXTENDED AND STAYED            
DRY AFTER TUESDAY.                                                              
JJB                                                                             
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
AMARILLO TX                81  61  80  59  83 /   5  20  20   5  20             
BEAVER OK                  84  63  84  56  88 /   5  30  20   5  10             
BOISE CITY OK              83  55  75  51  83 /  20  30  10   5  20             
BORGER TX                  85  66  83  62  87 /  10  30  20   5  10             
BOYS RANCH TX              86  63  83  58  87 /  10  20  20   5  20             
CANYON TX                  81  62  84  57  85 /   5  20  20   5  20             
CLARENDON TX               82  63  85  63  83 /   5  20  20   5  10             
DALHART TX                 84  57  78  53  83 /  20  30  10   5  20             
GUYMON OK                  86  64  79  54  88 /  20  30  10   5  20             
HEREFORD TX                83  62  86  55  83 /  10  20  20   5  20             
LIPSCOMB TX                82  64  86  58  86 /   5  30  20   5  10             
PAMPA TX                   81  63  82  63  83 /   5  20  20   5  10             
SHAMROCK TX                85  64  87  63  85 /   5  20  20   5  10             
WELLINGTON TX              86  65  88  65  85 /   5  20  20   5  10             
&&                                                                              
.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
TX...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING               
     ZONES: DALLAM...HARTLEY...SHERMAN.                                         
OK...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING               
     ZONES: CIMARRON...TEXAS.                                                   
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
03/14                                                                           
</pre> tx                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI                                           
1102 AM CDT SUN SEP 30 2007                                                     
.UPDATE...                                                                      
THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE                       
AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS AS POTENT MID-LEVEL WAVE                 
CURRENTLY OVER SWRN NEB MOVES EAST THROUGH IOWA. STRONG CONVECTION              
HAS DEVELOPED DOWNSTREAM OF THIS WAVE WHERE STRONG LOW LEVEL                    
MOIST/WARM ADVECTION ON POTENT 50-60KT 850MB WIND MAXIMUM ON                    
KS/NEB PROFILERS CONTINUES. THIS CONVECTION SHOWING HINTS OF PRODUCING          
SMALL HAIL OVER NRN IA/SRN MN PER KARX/KDMX RADAR IMAGERY. THIS                 
SHOULD CONTINUE TO DEVELOP...LARGELY IN ENVIRONMENT LACKING DEEP                
INSTABILITY /MUCAPE LESS THAN 500 J/KG/ BUT INCREASING                          
THERMODYNAMIC/KINEMATIC FORCING AS WAVE CONTINUES TO APPROACH.                  
DON/T EXPECT ANYTHING SEVERE FOR THE MOST PART WITH THIS INITIAL                
ACTIVITY OWING TO OVERALL LACK OF INSTABILITY AND GRADUAL                       
WEAKENING OF LOW LEVEL JET VIA MIXING. MAY BE A ROGUE DIME TO                   
NICKEL SIZED HAIL REPORT WITH THE STRONGEST CORES...HOWEVER.                    
LATEST 30.12 RUC/WRF...AS WELL AS SPC/NSSL WRF RUNS...ALL AGREE                 
THAT MORE ROBUST DEVELOPMENT WILL OCCUR BEHIND/SOUTH OF THIS INITIAL            
ACTIVITY OVER WRN/CNTL IA IN THE MID TO LATE AFTN HOURS AS STRONG               
MID/UPPER LEVEL KINEMATICS AND ATTENDANT SURFACE LOW AND COLD                   
FRONT MOVE NORTHEAST INTO THE MAIN INSTABILITY AXIS...WHICH WILL                
FEATURE MLCAPES FROM 500 TO 1500 J/KG /MORE OVER IOWA/. NARROW                  
WINDOW /ESPECIALLY IN NAM-WRF/ EXISTS IN 20Z-02Z TIMEFRAME FOR THE              
STRONGEST WINDS IN THE CYCLONICALLY CURVED MID/UPPER JET TO                     
OVERSPREAD THE FRONTAL ZONE SUPPORTING SUPERCELLULAR SHEAR IN PEAK              
HEATING. THUS...EXPECT LINEAR STORM MODE /COLD FRONT/ TO FEATURE                
SOME HIGHER END ORGANIZATION ESPECIALLY NEAR/NORTHEAST OF SFC LOW               
WHICH WILL MOVE ACRS IOWA. RUC A TAD MORE SOUTH...SUGGESTING                    
HIGHER THREAT FOR TORNADIC POTENTIAL STAYS SOUTH OF FORECAST                    
AREA...BUT REGARDLESS...STORMS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING WILL NEED TO              
BE WATCHED CLOSELY. SREF SEVERE STORM PROBABILITIES HAVE BEEN VERY              
CONSISTENT IN SUGGESTING BIGGEST FLARE-UP OF SEVERE WEATHER WILL                
TAKE PLACE IN I-35 CORRIDOR IN MID/LATE AFTN...AND DECREASE MARKEDLY            
AS CINH INCREASES THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING. FORECAST IN GREAT                  
SHAPE. ADDED SEVERE WORDING IN NERN IA WHERE BUST JUXTAPOSITION OF              
SHEAR/INSTABILITY IS PROGGED. WILL UPDATE HAZARDOUS WEATHER                     
OUTLOOK WITH LATEST THOUGHTS BETWEEN 18-20Z.                                    
BINAU                                                                           
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 320 AM CDT SUN SEP 30 2007/                         
SHORT TERM...THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT                                              
PRIMARY FORECAST CHALLENGES WERE ASSOCIATED WITH A COUPLE OF                    
ANOMALOUSLY VIGOROUS SYSTEMS TO IMPACT THE FORECAST AREA IN THE                 
SHORT TERM. DETAILS OF CONCERN WERE WITH RAIN CHANCES TODAY AND                 
TONIGHT...ALONG WITH SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING.           
RAIN CHANCES TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT WERE ALSO A CONCERN.                    
STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW ONGOING EARLY THIS MORNING ACROSS THE UPPER               
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AHEAD OF SURFACE COLD FRONT ADVANCING ACROSS THE             
PLAINS. LOW LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT EVIDENT             
ON 40-50KT 850MB JET...WHICH WAS FOCUSED FROM NEBRASKA/KANSAS INTO              
NORTHWEST IOWA AND MN. CLUSTERS OF CONVECTION AHEAD OF PLAINS COLD              
FRONT PRODUCING CONSIDERABLE HIGH CLOUDINESS ACROSS THE FORECAST                
AREA. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED VIGOROUS MID LEVEL CIRCULATION                 
TRACKING OUT INTO THE HIGH PLAINS OF WYOMING/COLORADO.                          
00Z 30SEP07 MODELS HAD EXCELLENT CLUSTERING OF UPPER LEVEL AND                  
SURFACE FEATURES TO IMPACT THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TODAY AND               
TONIGHT...AS WELL AS TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. AS WAS THE CASE                
IN PREVIOUS PROBABILISTIC DATA SUITE...LATEST SREF INDICATED 80-100             
PERCENT PROBABILITIES OF QPF TODAY INTO TONIGHT. SIMILAR VALUES                 
WERE ASSOCIATED WITH SYSTEM FOR TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. AS A                
RESULT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE REMAINS HIGH FOR A WIDESPREAD RAIN EVENT           
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA IN BOTH OF THE AFOREMENTIONED TIME FRAMES.             
TODAY INTO TONIGHT...FIRST OF TWO RATHER VIGOROUS SYSTEMS IMPACTS THE           
AREA. EXCELLENT CONSENSUS WITHIN DETERMINISTIC AND PROBABILISTIC DATA           
SUITE SUPPORTS HIGH FORECAST CONFIDENCE IN DETAILS OF CURRENT DATA              
BASE. STRONG DYNAMICS MANIFESTED BY 500-300MB PV-ADVECTION...ALONG              
WITH DEEP LAYERED Q-G CONVERGENCE. RAIN PROBABILITIES IN CURRENT DATA           
BASE SUPPORTED WELL BY FORCING PARAMETERS...WITH CATEGORICAL VALUES             
GENERALLY ALONG AND WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER THIS AFTERNOON.               
IN ADDITION...UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH 300MB JET                  
SHOULD AID IN ENHANCEMENT OF LARGE SCALE ASCENT AND THUS DEFORMATION            
AXIS LINGERS THROUGH THE NIGHT ACROSS NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE                  
FORECAST AREA. THEREFORE...INCREASED RAIN PROBABILITIES THIS                    
EVENING AREAWIDE...THEN IN THE AFOREMENTIONED LOCATIONS BASED ON                
CONSISTENT SIGNAL OF DEFORMATION ZONE ACROSS NORTHERN WI.                       
BOTH GFS AND NAM/WRF CONTINUED TO INDICATE A NARROW RIBBON OF                   
INSTABILITY WITH SBCAPE VALUES OF AS MUCH AS 500-1000 J/KG ARCING               
INTO PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THIS             
COMBINED WITH 0-6KM SHEAR OF 40-50KTS SHOULD FAVOR A FAST MOVING                
LINE OF STRONG CONVECTION PIVOTING NORTHEASTWARD. DUE TO STRONG                 
WIND SHEAR...ENVIRONMENT FAVORS LOW-TOPPED SUPERCELLS WITH ANY                  
DISCRETE CELLS. PLEASE REFERENCE 06Z 30SEP07 SPC DAY ONE OUTLOOK...             
ALONG WITH LOCAL HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR FURTHER INFORMATION.             
TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE REMAINS HIGH FOR               
YET ANOTHER WIDESPREAD RAIN EVENT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. STRONG              
FORCING SIGNALS SUPPORTED THIS AS EVIDENCED BY DEEP LAYERED Q-G                 
CONVERGENCE...AS WELL AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND THETA-E               
CONVERGENCE ALONG/AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. RAIN PROBABILITIES WERE              
INCREASED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA BY DAY SHIFT AND THIS LOOKED GOOD.           
FURTHER INCREASE WILL PROBABLY BE WARRANTED WITH SUBSEQUENT                     
FORECASTS BASED ON GOOD MODEL CONSENSUS AND STRONG FORCING SIGNALS.             
LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY                                          
AFTER THE ACTIVE WEATHER OF LATE SETTLES DOWN AT MIDWEEK...                     
DETERMINISTIC GFS AND ECMWF INDICATED AN UPPER LEVEL AND SURFACE WAVE           
SHOULD IMPACT THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TOWARD THE END OF THE                
WEEK. FORECAST CONFIDENCE WAS GROWING...AS BOTH MODELS WERE GAINING             
GOOD CONSENSUS ON TIMING AND STRENGTH OF UPPER LEVEL WAVE AND                   
ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONT. AT THIS TIME...CURRENT DATA BASE APPEARS              
REASONABLE WITH RAIN CHANCES FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. NO CHANGES WERE              
MADE TO THE EXTENDED OUTLOOK.                                                   
AVIATION...                                                                     
AN AREA OF RAIN AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS HAS DEVELOPED ON THE                
NOSE OF A 45 KNOT 850 MB JET ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL IOWA AND SOUTH                
CENTRAL MINNESOTA EARLY THIS MORNING. NONE OF THE SEPTEMBER 30TH                
00Z MODELS PICKED UP ON THIS CONVECTIVE SYSTEM. CORFIDI VECTORS                 
SUGGESTS THAT THIS SYSTEM SHOULD MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS PARTS OF                 
SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA AND NORTHEAST IOWA EARLY THIS MORNING. AS A                 
RESULT...I JUST RECENTLY ADDED SHOWERS TO THE KRST TAF.                         
A VIGOROUS NEGATIVELY SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE UPPER             
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. THIS WILL             
RESULT IN WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND               
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT. IN ADDITION...THERE MAY             
BE SOME SEVERE WEATHER CONVECTION BETWEEN SEPTEMBER 30TH 21Z AND                
OCTOBER 1ST 03Z. THE MAIN SEVERE WEATHER THREATS LOOK TO BE DAMAGING            
WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. HOWEVER THERE MAY BE A FEW TORNADOES ACROSS               
SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA AND NORTHEAST IOWA WHERE THE              
WINDS ARE ABLE TO BACK AHEAD OF THE STRENGTHENING SURFACE LOW.                  
ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                              
WI...NONE.                                                                      
MN...NONE.                                                                      
IA...NONE.                                                                      
$$                                                                              
SHORT/LONG TERM...THOMPSON                                                      
&&                                                                              
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
WI...NONE.                                                                      
MN...NONE.                                                                      
IA...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</pre> wi                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI                                           
1043 AM CDT SAT SEP 29 2007                                                     
.UPDATE...                                                                      
HAVE MADE SOME PRETTY SIGNIFICANT EDITS TO FORECAST FOR TODAY WITH              
RATHER IMPRESSIVE RAIN SHIELD/EMBEDDED THUNDER WITH WEAK MID-LEVEL              
WAVE AND VERY STRONG LOW LEVEL JET. PROFILERS/VWPS THIS MORNING                 
SHOWING 40-50KT 925MB LOW LEVEL WIND MAXIMUM /EVEN UP T0 60KTS IN               
SERN NEB/ WITH CONVERGENT AREA OVER NRN IA WHERE LOW LEVEL FRONT                
MOVING NORTHEAST. COMBINED WITH MODEST MID LEVEL Q/G                            
CONVERGENCE...AMPLE FORCING AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT SUPPORTING                   
LARGE SHIELD OF RAIN WITH A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER MOVING                       
NORTHEAST THROUGH WRN FORECAST AREA. ENVIRONMENT TO THE EAST WILL               
BE MUCH SLOWER TO MODIFY/SUPPORT PRECIPITATION PER MOISTURE                     
TRANSPORT/ADVECTION DIAGNOSTICS FROM RECENT 29.12 RUC/WRF...SO                  
TAILORED A SHARP GRADIENT IN POPS FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST                   
ACROSS FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THINK MOST AREAS WILL               
SEE A SHOT OF RAIN...BECOMING LIGHTER AND LIGHTER ACROSS THE                    
FORECAST AREA AS ONE HEADS SOUTHEAST. A LITTLE CONCERNED ABOUT THE              
SWRN FLANK OF THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD WHICH HAS HAD THE                        
PROPENSITY TO REMAIN ACTIVE WITH STRONGER CONVECTION WITH HIGHER                
FEED OF THETA-E. TEMPERATURES IN SERIOUS JEOPARDY IN NWRN FORECAST              
AREA WHERE RAIN/CLOUDS WILL REALLY HAMPER WARMING UNTIL VERY LATE               
IN THE DAY. PULLED ALL TEMPS BACK ESPECIALLY HIGHER RAIN THREAT                 
AREAS. GRIDDED FORECAST HAS BEEN UPDATED WITH TEXT PRODUCTS COMING              
SOON.                                                                           
&&                                                                              
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
WI...NONE.                                                                      
MN...NONE.                                                                      
IA...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
BINAU                                                                           
</pre> wi                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI                                  
333 AM CDT SAT SEP 29 2007                                                      
.SHORT TERM...                                                                  
TODAY AND TONIGHT-                                                              
PATCHY FOG EARLY THIS MORNING CURRENTLY COVERED BY OVERNIGHT                    
FORECAST AND WILL NOT ADD AFTER 12Z/7AM.                                        
IMPRESSIVE SHORT WAVE TROUGH ON WATER VAPOR DIGGING THROUGH                     
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA TOWARD NEVADA...WITH BROAD SOUTHWEST FLOW                   
AHEAD OF IT OVER THE PLAINS. PLUME OF MOISTURE IN WARM ADVECTION                
REGIME SUPPORTIVE OF SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS FROM NEW MEXICO TO                 
MINNESOTA.                                                                      
SOUTHEAST WISCONSIN REMAINS IN DRY MODIFIED POLAR AIRMASS TODAY                 
WHICH WILL LIMIT EASTWARD PUSH OF CONVECTIVE THREAT. RUC CURRENTLY              
HANDLING LESS THAN 0.25 INCH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OVER                     
EASTERN IOWA. MODELS DO GOOD JOB OF SLIDING NEBRASKA CONVECTION TO              
THE NORTHWEST OF FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.                      
PROBABLY WILL BE MORE ANVIL DEBRIS CLOUDS MOVING INTO AREA THAN                 
FORECAST...THOUGH CRAS MODEL DOES A GOOD JOB OF BRINGING SEVERAL                
WAVES OF MID/HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS.                                                
SUNDAY-                                                                         
BOWLING BALL HANDLED IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT AS IT SWINGS TOWARD                
WISCONSIN. TIMING OF SURFACE FRONT/TROUGH SUNDAY EVENING AND                    
INSPECTION OF BUFR SOUNDINGS VIA BUFKIT FOR BOTH NAM AND GFS                    
INDICATE NO CAPE PRIOR TO PRECIPITATION REACHING AREA.                          
INDEED...INCREASING GRADIENT AND PLENTY OF DRY AIR SUGGEST IT WILL              
BE A MOSTLY SUNNY THOUGH INCREASINGLY WINDY DAY. DON`T BRING                    
ANYTHING INTO WESTERN CWA UNTIL AFTER 2100Z. NOT SURE IT WILL EVEN              
MAKE IT BEFORE 00Z.                                                             
SUNDAY NIGHT-                                                                   
STRONG DYNAMIC FORCING FROM DIFFERENTIAL PVA AND LOW LEVEL                      
FRONTOGENESIS LIKELY TO PRODUCE BAND OF PRECIPITATION ALONG                     
SURFACE FRONT. ALTHOUGH SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY OVER SOUTHEAST                   
MINNESOTA AND IOWA IN THE AFTERNOON IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN                    
POSSIBILITY OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PER SPC DAY 2 CONVECTIVE                    
OUTLOOK...IT APPEARS THAT THE REMNANTS OF THIS ACTIVITY SPREADING               
INTO SOUTHEAST WISCONSIN WILL BE CROSSING A LARGELY CAPELESS                    
ENVIRONMENT.                                                                    
THE MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE RAPID MOISTENING IN STRONG SYNOPTIC                
SCALE ASCENT IN 700-300 MB LAYER...WITH SATURATED MOIST ADIABATIC               
LAPSE RATES. NEAR THE SURFACE...THERE IS CONSIDERABLE DRY AIR AND               
RELATIVELY STEEP LAPSE RATES IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER.                             
GIVEN THE STRONG SOUTHWEST FLOW THROUGH A DEEP LAYER...THERE IS AN              
OUTSIDE CHANCE THAT A STRONGLY FORCED WEAK CONVECTIVE LINE WITH                 
LITTLE OR NO LIGHTNING COULD COME RACING THROUGH THE AREA DURING                
THE EVENING. GIVEN THE OVERALL WINDY SETUP THIS MAY OR MAY NOT                  
HAVE MUCH IMPACT AFTER DARK. WENT AHEAD WITH CATEGORICAL                        
SHOWERS...ISOLATED THUNDER...AND MENTIONED GUSTY WINDS.                         
.LONG TERM...                                                                   
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT-                                                        
ALTHOUGH FRONT EXITS RAPIDLY...MODELS HINT AT KEEPING SOMEWHAT                  
SHOWERY REGIME LINGERING UNDER COLD CORE LOW MONDAY MORNING BEFORE              
IMPROVEMENT.                                                                    
TUESDAY-                                                                        
NEXT FRONT COMES THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH A FULL LATITUDE                   
TROUGH AND FAIRLY CONSISTENT TIMING IN GFS/ECMWF WORLDS. BUMPED UP              
POPS TUESDAY NIGHT IN LINE WITH NEW GFS MEX GUIDANCE.                           
WEDNESDAY-                                                                      
BOTH GFS AND ECMWF ARE QUITE DRY WITH 850-300 MB RH BELOW 30                    
PERCENT. CURRENT FORECASTS ARE PARTLY CLOUDY BUT PROBABLY NEED TO               
VISIT ON DAY SHIFT GOING CLEAR/SUNNY TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY               
NIGHT.                                                                          
&&                                                                              
CRAVEN                                                                          
.AVIATION...                                                                    
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES WITH LOW                             
PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS.  PATCHY IFR FOG IN LOW LYING                 
AREAS MAINLY IN THE SE DURING THE EARLY MORNING. SOUTH SFC WINDS                
WILL INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON AS THE LOW OVER THE PLAINS PUSHES                  
EAST.  MAINLY VFR WITH FEW CU AROUND 5 THSD FT AND CIRRUS THIS                  
AFTERNOON...WITH ALTOCUMULUS BY EVENING.                                        
&&                                                                              
.MARINE...                                                                      
STRONG GRADIENT BETWEEN RETREATING POLAR HIGH AND APPROACHING                   
TROUGH WILL RESULT IN SOUTH WINDS OF 15 TO 25 KNOTS TONIGHT                     
TURNING TO SOUTHWEST UP TO 30 KNOTS SUNDAY EVENING. A SMALL CRAFT               
ADVISORY HAS BEEN HOISTED FROM THIS EVENING INTO MONDAY MORNING TO              
COVER THESE WINDS AND WAVES INCREASING 4 TO 7 FEET SUNDAY.                      
&&                                                                              
.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
NONE.                                                                           
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
HENTZ/06 - AVIATION/MARINE                                                      
CRAVEN/02 - LONG TERM                                                           
</pre> wi                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
412 AM EDT MON OCT 1 2007                                                       
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
07Z WATER VAPOR LOOP AND RUC 500MB HEIGHT ANALYSIS SHOWED AN UPPER              
LEVEL TROUGH FROM NORTHERN ONTARIO INTO IOWA...WITH A 573 DAM LOW               
NEAR CEDAR RAPIDS IOWA. RIDGES ARE PRESENT ON EITHER SIDE OF THE                
TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN U.S. AND WESTERN PLAINS. FARTHER WEST...A               
MORE IMPRESSIVE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CAN BE SEEN ALONG THE PACIFIC NW             
COASTLINE. ISENTROPIC LIFT DOWNSTREAM OF THE UPPER LOW...IN ADDITION            
TO UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE IN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF A 110 KT              
JET NEAR THUNDER BAY ONTARIO...IS SUPPORTING SHOWERS FROM EASTERN               
WI/LAKE MI UP INTO THE CENTRAL U.P.. WITH PLENTY OF CLOUDS OVER THE             
AREA AND DEWPOINTS IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S...TEMPERATURES ARE QUITE             
WARM...CLOSER TO AVERAGE HIGHS. TO THE WEST OF THE AREA...                      
OBSERVATIONS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICT LOW CLOUDS ACROSS NORTHERN            
MN FLOWING IN BEHIND A COLD FRONT CROSSING WESTERN UPPER MICHIGAN.              
CMX AND IWD NOW HAVE LIFR CEILINGS WITH MVFR VISIBILITIES. 00Z INL              
SOUNDING SHOWED THIS WITH A SATURATED LAYER NEAR 875MB WHICH                    
REPRESENTS THE COLD FRONTAL INVERSION. CLOUDS CLEAR OUT ACROSS                  
WESTERN MN AND THE DAKOTAS WHERE A SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE               
EXISTS WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 30S. FARTHER WEST...LEE TROUGHING IS               
ALREADY DEVELOPING ALONG THE ROCKIES...WITH A 1005MB LOW CENTERED               
NEAR EDMONTON ALBERTA DOWNSTREAM OF THE PACIFIC NW TROUGH.                      
NOTE: WE DID NOT BREAK THE ALL-TIME SEPTEMBER PCPN RECORD AT THE                
OFFICE. AT MIDNIGHT EST...THE TOTAL SEPTEMBER RAINFALL WAS 7.48                 
INCHES...ABOUT 0.12 OF AN INCH SHORT OF THE 7.60 INCH RECORD. HAD               
THE CURRENT SHOWERS BEEN A FEW HOURS EARLIER...WE PROBABLY WOULD                
HAVE BROKE IT.                                                                  
&&                                                                              
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS ARE FOG DEVELOPMENT TONIGHT AND PCPN FOR                 
TUE/TUE NIGHT.                                                                  
TODAY...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ALONG THE PACIFIC NW COASTLINE IS PROGGED            
TO MOVE INTO WESTERN MONTANA BY 00Z...FORCING RIDGING TO BUILD UP               
INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND EVENTUALLY THE DULUTH AREA BY 00Z WITH             
500MB HEIGHTS OF 580 DAM. THIS RIDGING WILL ALSO FORCE THE UPPER LOW            
OVER IOWA TO CONTINUE MOVING...THOUGH IT APPEARS MORE EAST THAN                 
NORTHEAST AS EXPECTED YESTERDAY. BY 00Z...MOST OF THE MODELS HAVE               
THE LOW NEAR DETROIT. ALTHOUGH THE TRACK IS FARTHER SOUTH...VERY                
LITTLE CHANGES ARE NEEDED TO THE PCPN FORECAST. SHOWERS PRESENT OVER            
THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE CWA SHOULD GRADUALLY MOVE EAST AND FALL              
APART AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES EAST AND FILLS...IN ADDITION TO THE JET            
STREAK OVER THUNDER BAY MOVING NE AWAY FROM THE AREA. LOW CLOUDS...             
LIKELY WITH CLOUD TOPS ONLY NEAR 3000 FT DUE TO SUBSIDENCE AND                  
DRYING OCCURRING ALOFT...SHOULD FILL IN IN THE WAKE OF THE UPPER                
LOW. RECENT RAINFALL WILL HELP MATTERS TOO IN DEVELOPING THE LOW                
CLOUDS/FOG. THE LATE TIME OF YEAR WILL ALSO HELP IN PREVENTING THE              
LOW CLOUD DECK FROM MIXING OUT. IN ADDITION...WITH THE SURFACE COLD             
FRONT CROSSING THE CWA...NORTHERLY FLOW BEHIND IT SHOULD RESULT IN              
SOME FOG AND/OR UPSLOPE DRIZZLE OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OUT OF THE              
LOW CLOUD DECK. APPEARS THE DRIZZLE WILL BE MOSTLY CONFINED TO THE              
NORTH CENTRAL U.P. WHERE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS DEEPEST...THOUGH SOME            
DRIZZLE/FOG IS POSSIBLE THIS MORNING IN THE WESTERN U.P. HIGHER                 
TERRAIN AS SURFACE OBS FROM IWD AND CMX INDICATE. GIVEN THE                     
CLOUDS...EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO HAVE A HARD TIME CLIMBING MUCH                  
TODAY. GENERALLY FOLLOWED MET/MAV GUIDANCE VALUES.                              
TONIGHT...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER WESTERN MONTANA WILL CONTINUE ITS             
EASTWARD MARCH...REACHING THE WESTERN DAKOTAS BY 12Z TUE. THE COLD              
FRONT...CURRENTLY THE LEE TROUGH...ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER TROUGH             
SHOULD REACH GRAND FORKS AROUND THE SAME TIME. CLOSER TO HOME...THE             
UPPER TROUGH WILL CAUSE THE UPPER RIDGE TO BUILD UP INTO UPPER                  
MICHIGAN...RESULTING IN A DRY NIGHT WITH SUBSIDENCE ALOFT.                      
HOWEVER...THIS SUBSIDENCE AND DRYING ALOFT WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE              
TRAPPED AT THE SURFACE PRESENTS A CONCERN FOR FOG...ESPECIALLY WITH             
LIGHT WINDS THROUGH AT LEAST THE EARLY PORTION OF THE OVERNIGHT                 
HOURS AS THE SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE PLAINS CROSSES. GUIDANCE ALONG              
WITH SOUNDINGS SHOW A VERY FAVORABLE SCENARIO FOR FOG...AND THUS                
HAVE INCREASED THE COVERAGE FURTHER TO GO WITH WIDESPREAD FOG AND               
AREAS OF DENSE FOG. NEXT SHIFT MAY NEED TO ISSUE A DENSE FOG                    
ADVISORY. RETURN FLOW DEVELOPING TOWARDS SUNRISE OUT IN THE WESTERN             
U.P. MAY START TO BREAK UP THE FOG...PARTICULARLY IN DOWNSLOPE                  
AREAS. LOW TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN WARM WITH STRATUS AND FOG                 
AROUND.                                                                         
TUE INTO TUE NIGHT...THE MAIN FOCUS WILL REMAIN ON THE IMPACTS OF               
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AS IT MOVES EASTWARD TO THE MN/WI LINE AT 00Z            
WED AND TO EASTERN ONTARIO BY 12Z WED. THE RAPID PROGRESSION OF THIS            
FEATURE ONLY ALLOWS FOR A NARROW AXIS OF MOISTURE TO ADVECT UP AHEAD            
OF THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT...AS INDICATED BY 850MB THETA-E                    
ADVECTION. THUS IT DOES NOT APPEAR ANY MORE THAT SHOWERS OR STORMS              
COULD FORM DOWNSTREAM OVER NORTHERN WI AND ALONG THE WI BORDER.                 
TIMING OF THE FEATURE HAS SPED UP WITH THE 00Z GFS/12Z                          
ECMWF...SHOWING THE COLD FRONT AND AXIS OF GREATEST 850MB THETA-E               
ADVECTION AND MOISTURE CONVERGENCE IN NW WI AND IWD AREA AT                     
18Z...OVER THE CENTRAL U.P. AT 00Z...AND EAST OF SAULT STE MARIE BY             
06Z. THE UKMET AND NAM ARE A BIT SLOWER WITH THE TROUGH...THUS WILL             
NOT CLEAR PCPN OUT AS FAST AS THE GFS/ECMWF. CHANGES MAY BE REQUIRED            
OVER THE NEXT FEW SHIFTS AS THE EXACT TROUGH TIMING BECOMES MORE                
CERTAIN. GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE DYNAMICS AND WARM ADVECTION SHOWN            
WITH THE TROUGH (12 HR 500MB HEIGHT CHANGE OF 100-130 M AND 850MB               
WINDS OF 40 KT)...THINK IT IS REASONABLE TO CONTINUE WITH LIKELY                
POPS. SOME SUN IS POSSIBLE ON TUE AHEAD OF THE PCPN...BUT IT IS                 
UNCERTAIN HOW LONG GIVEN THE TIMING DIFFERENCES. THE SLOWER NAM                 
SOLUTION WOULD ALLOW HIGHS TO REACH NEAR 70 WHEREAS THE FASTER GFS              
MAY KEEPS HIGHS MORE IN THE MID 60S. PLAN ON GOING IN-BETWEEN THE               
TWO FOR NOW.                                                                    
WED AND THU...QUIET WEATHER WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE                  
EXPECTED DURING THIS PERIOD...DUE TO ZONAL FLOW ALOFT GRADUALLY                 
BACKING SW BRINGING MILD DOWNSLOPED PACIFIC AIR INTO THE GREAT LAKES            
REGION. GFS SOUNDINGS AND ECMWF RH PROGS DEPICT VERY LITTLE IN THE              
WAY OF CLOUDS DURING THIS PERIOD TOO...EXCEPT ACROSS WESTERN LAKE               
SUPERIOR WED NIGHT AND THU WHERE SOME ISENTROPIC LIFT BEGINS AND                
CREATES A MID CLOUD DECK. GIVEN PLENTY OF SUN BOTH DAYS...DRY                   
AIR...AND 850MB TEMPS RISING FROM 8C AT 18Z WED TO 12C AT 18Z THU               
SUPPORTS HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S BOTH DAYS. S TO SW                   
SURFACE WINDS BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE PROGGED OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC               
AND LOW PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS MANITOBA TO HUDSON BAY WILL YIELD AN             
EXTRA COUPLE DEGREES FOR DOWNSLOPE AREAS. BY LATE THU...PRESSURES               
FALLING OVER THE PLAINS SHOULD CAUSE WINDS TO BACK MORE                         
SOUTHEASTERLY...RESULTING IN SOME COOLING ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE               
KEWEENAW PENINSULA.                                                             
THU NIGHT THROUGH SUN...MUCH OF THIS PERIOD WILL BE FOCUSED ON THE              
MECHANISM THAT CAUSES THE ZONAL FLOW OVER THE AREA ON WED TO BACK SW            
ON THU...A DEEP TROUGH DIGGING DOWN INTO THE WESTERN U.S.. THERE ARE            
TWO QUESTIONS WITH THE TROUGH...HOW DEEP IT WILL BE AND HOW QUICK IT            
PUSHES EASTWARD. ECMWF AND GFS RUNS SEEM TO BE CONSISTENT WITHIN                
THEMSELVES WITH TWO SCENARIOS. THE ECMWF ALLOWS THE TROUGH TO DIG               
DOWN INTO THE FOUR CORNERS AREA BY 00Z SUN...PUMPING UP A LARGE                 
RIDGE DOWNSTREAM ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S.. IF THIS OCCURS...THE ECMWF            
DEPICTS A VERY WARM AND HUMID DAY ON SAT WITH BREEZY SOUTH                      
WINDS...850MB TEMPS OF 16-18C AND 850MB DEWPOINTS AROUND 14C. THIS              
IS THEN FOLLOWED BY A POSSIBLE HEAVY RAIN EVENT ON SUN. ON THE OTHER            
SIDE OF THE COIN...THE GFS IS MORE PROGRESSIVE AND SHOWS THE BASE OF            
THE UPPER TROUGH (AN UPPER LOW) INTO THE OMAHA AREA BY 00Z SUN WHICH            
LIFTS UP INTO THE GREAT LAKES AREA ON SUN. IF THIS SOLUTION                     
OCCURS...THE GFS WRAPS UP THE UPPER LOW SO MUCH AND HAS 850MB TEMPS             
DOWN TO -4C AT IWD BY 12Z ALONG WITH PLENTY OF QPF...SUGGESTING A               
POSSIBLE SNOWSTORM. BASED ON THE CANADIAN AND UKMET WHICH LOOK MORE             
LIKE THE ECMWF...THE GFS SOLUTION IS VERY MUCH AN OUTLIER...THOUGH              
SNOWSTORMS FOR THE FIRST WEEKEND OF OCTOBER ARE DEFINITELY NOT                  
UNCOMMON HERE. IN ANY EVENT...EITHER SOLUTION SUGGESTS AN                       
INTERESTING WEEKEND IS IN STORE...WITH POTENTIAL FOR RECORD HIGHS               
ALONG WITH HEAVY PCPN.                                                          
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION (FOR THE 06Z TAF ISSUANCE)...                                         
SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS CENTRAL UPPER MICHIGAN OVERNIGHT AS A               
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER IOWA MOVES INTO NORTHERN IL. STEADIER                  
RAINFALL WILL EVENTUALLY LOWER CIGS/VSBYS INTO THE MVFR RANGE AND               
THEN TO IFR CONDITIONS LATE IN THE NIGHT INTO THE MORNING. ALTHOUGH             
THE LOW AND PRECIP SHIELD SLIDES TO THE EAST...CIGS WILL ONLY                   
GRADUALLY IMPROVE MONDAY AS SFC-850 MB MOISTURE REMAINS IN PLACE FOR            
MOST OF THE DAY. THE LOWEST CIGS ARE EXPECTED AT KSAW WITH NE WINDS             
PROVIDING MORE DIRECT UPSLOPE FLOW. EXPECT LOW CLOUDS/FOG TO                    
REDEVELOP THIS EVENING AS THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS IN PLACE               
AND WEAK ERLY SURFACE FLOW DEVELOPS AT KCMX AND E TO NE FLOW                    
CONTINUES AT KSAW.                                                              
&&                                                                              
.MARINE (FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FCST ISSUANCE)...                           
WINDS WILL DIMINISH THRU THE DAY TODAY AS LOW PRES OVER NE IA MOVES             
NE AND WEAKENS...DISSIPATING THIS EVENING. AS THE WINDS DIMINISH...             
WILL NEED TO WATCH FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT...ESPECIALLY TONIGHT. NEXT               
ACTIVE LOW PRES TROUGH WILL RACE E AND CROSS LAKE SUPERIOR TUE                  
NIGHT. SRLY WINDS WILL AGAIN RAMP UP IN ADVANCE OF THIS TROUGH...AND            
IT`S NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT A FEW GALE FORCE GUSTS COULD OCCUR            
OVER THE E HALF OF THE LAKE LATE TUE AFTN/EVENING. WINDS FOR THE                
REMAINDER OF THE FCST (WED THRU FRI) SHOULD GENERALLY BE IN THE 10              
TO 20KT RANGE WITH AN OCCASIONAL PERIOD OF 15 TO 25KT.                          
&&                                                                              
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE                                         
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SYNOPSIS/DISCUSSION...AJ                                                        
AVIATION...JLB                                                                  
MARINE...ROLFSON                                                                
</pre> mi                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
126 AM EDT MON OCT 1 2007                                                       
UPDATED FOR AVIATION DISCUSSION                                                 
.UPDATE (ISSUED AT 1030 PM EDT)...                                              
RADAR SHOWED A LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS                
FROM SW TO N CNTRL WI AND INTO CNTRL UPPER MI. THE PCPN CLOSER TO               
UPPER MI WAS SUPPORTED BY STRONG 600-500 FGEN AHEAD OF THE CLOSED               
500 MB LOW OVER IA AND UPPER LEVEL DIV WITH THE RIGHT ENTRANCE OF A             
110-120 KT 250 MB JET N OF LAKE SUPERIOR. SATELLITE/RADAR TRENDS AND            
THE 00Z NAM AND RUC SUGGEST THAT THE PCPN OVER NRN WI WILL CONTINUE             
TO SPREAD MORE NNE IN RESPONSE TO THE UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS COMPARED             
TO THE EARLIER BATCH OF PCPN INTO CNTRL UPPER MI THAT WAS MOVING                
MORE TO THE ENE. SO...HIGHEST POPS/COVERAGE WILL CONTINUE OVER CNTRL            
AND SE UPPER MI WITH ONLY SCT/CHANCE POPS OVER THE WEST. OVERALL                
RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE EXCESSIVE...PER UPSTREAM                
REPORTS OVER WI...WITH GENERALLY 0.25-0.50 INCH AMOUNTS AND ONLY LCL            
AMOUNTS AOA 1.00 INCH.                                                          
&&                                                                              
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC/NAM SHOWING A CLOSED LOW                            
OVER EASTERN NEBRASKA MOVING EAST INTO A RIDGE OVER WESTERN QUEBEC.             
A LONGWAVE TROUGH IS JUST OFF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. OTHER WEAK                 
SHORTWAVES ARE OVER NORTHERN MINNESOTA...OVER SOUTHEAST                         
MANITOBA...OVER AND CENTRAL ONTARIO. SURFACE ANALYSIS DEPICTS A                 
LARGE OVER NEW ENGLAND WITH ACCOMPANYING RIDGE BLANKETING THE EAST              
COAST AND THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES. A FRONTAL SYSTEM EXTENDS FROM A              
LOW OVER NORTHWEST ONTARIO SOUTHWEST THROUGH NORTHEAST MINNESOTA TO             
A LOW OVER KOMA AREA. AN UPPER LEVEL 100+ KNOT JET MAX IS OVER THE              
NORTHWEST SHORE OF LAKE SUPERIOR...FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER OVER                     
NORTHWEST MISSOURI. THESE ARE DRAWING DEEP MOISTURE FROM THE GULF               
INTO THE NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY AND WESTERN END OF THE               
FORECAST AREA. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE OCCURRING OVER WESTERN             
PART OF THE CWA AND OVER CENTRAL ONTARIO IN THE AREA OF HIGHEST                 
MOISTURE AND UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE                
FIRING ALONG AN 850MB THETA-E RIDGE AXIS AND BENEATH THE UPPER LEVEL            
DIVERGENCE ZONE OVER THE WESTERN U.P. AND NORTHERN WISCONSIN.                   
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT AND MON)...                                                
MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS WITH THIS FORECAST IS THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS              
AND THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT AND MONDAY.                                           
UPPER RIDGING WILL REBUILD ACROSS THE PLAINS AS THE EAST PACIFIC NW             
TROUGH MOVES INTO WASHINGTON AND OREGON STATE. THIS REBUILDING OF               
THE UPPER RIDGE WILL FORCE THE UPPER LOW NEAR OMAHA TO LIFT                     
NORTHEAST AS IT RUNS INTO THE RIDGE TO ITS EAST. BY SUNRISE                     
MONDAY...THE LOW SHOULD BE LOCATED NEAR GREEN BAY. DEEP MOISTURE                
FEEDING INTO THE FORECAST ALONG WITH THE UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE AND             
SHORTWAVE ENERGY SUPPORTS KEEPING CATEGORICAL POPS OVER THE WEST                
HALF OF THE CWA. FOR THE EASTERN CWA...HAVE ONLY WENT WITH                      
LIKELY VALUES AS HEIGHT FALLS ARE LATEST TO HIT THERE. HIGH                     
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES...AROUND 1.5 INCHES COULD SUPPORT SOME                
HEAVY RAINFALL AMOUNTS. GIVEN PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER AND HIGH                    
DEWPOINTS SUGGESTS A WARM NIGHT...PROBABLY NOT TOO FAR FROM AVERAGE             
HIGH TEMPERATURES.                                                              
THE RIDGE AXIS OVER THE PLAINS WILL SHIFT INTO WESTERN WISCONSIN ON             
MONDAY AS THE WESTERN TROUGH CONTINUES TO MOVE EASTWARD. THIS WILL              
CAUSE THE UPPER LOW TO SHIFT TO LAKE HURON. DNVA ASSOCIATED WITH THE            
RIDGE AXIS SHOULD ALLOW SHOWERS TO END BY 18Z OVER THE WEST HALF OF             
THE CWA AND OVER MUCH OF THE EAST HALF OF THE CWA BY 00Z. AS DRY AIR            
MOVES WILL LOWER POPS OVER THE FAR WESTERN U.P. IN THE MORNING AND              
WILL MAINTAIN THE IDEA OF LIKELY POPS OVER THE EASTERN CWA WITH                 
CHANCE POPS ELSEWHERE. ALTHOUGH THE SHOWERS END...DRYING ALOFT                  
ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER RIDGE APPEARS TO SET UP A SUBSIDENCE                  
INVERSION. GIVEN THE TIME OF YEAR AND PLENTY OF MOISTURE FROM THE               
RAIN TONIGHT SUGGESTS THE POSSIBILITY OF A LOW STRATUS DECK GETTING             
STUCK OVER MUCH OF THE U.P.. WINDS TURNING NORTH ON THE BACK SIDE OF            
A SURFACE LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW COULD ALSO RESULT IN                
SOME MIST AND OR DRIZZLE OVER UPSLOPE AREAS. GIVEN ALL THE CLOUD                
COVER...TEMPERATURES WILL NOT RISE MUCH.                                        
.LONG TERM (MON NIGHT THROUGH NEXT SUN)...                                      
AMPLIFIED UPR LEVEL PATTERN BECOMES MORE ZONAL BY MID WEEK THEN THE             
AMPLITUDE INCREASES SUBSTANTIALLY AGAIN BY LATE WEEK. IN GENERAL THE            
UPR LEVEL FLOW INTO UPR LAKES IS FM WEST/SOUTHWEST...SO ABOVE NORMAL            
TEMPS CONTINUE UNTIL NEXT WEEKEND. SHORTWAVE RIDGING DEVELOPING IN              
WAKE OF MON SYSTEM QUICKLY GIVES WAY TO THE KICKER SHORTWAVE TROUGH             
CURRENTLY DIVING TOWARD CA COAST. THIS TROUGH EMERGES ACROSS THE                
ROCKIES ON MON AND PUSHES INTO THE PLAINS MON NIGHT. STRONG SW FLOW             
AHEAD OF THE TROUGH WILL BE ENHANCED AS UPR JET OVR NORTHERN ROCKIES            
COMBINES WITH PIECE OF SUBTROPICAL JET ENERGY LIFTING OUT OF DESERT             
SW. THE STRONG JETS JUST AHEAD OF TROUGH SHOULD ALSO SERVE TO KEEP              
TROUGH POSITIVELY TILTED AND MOVING QUICKLY THROUGH THE REGION. AS              
IS THE CASE WITH THE SYSTEM AFFECTING THE AREA ATTM...THIS SYSTEM               
WILL ALSO BRING A STRONG SURGE OF ABOVE NORMAL MOISTURE INTO THE                
UPR LAKES THANKS TO INCREASING H85 WINDS. AXIS OF H85 DEWPOINTS TO              
+12C NOSES INTO SW CWA TUE MORNING THEN QUICKLY OVERTAKES REST OF               
CWA BY TUE EVENING. COMBINATION OF HEIGHT FALLS AND PERIOD OF UPPER             
LEVEL DIVERGENCE SHOULD LEAD TO PERIOD OF MODERATE RAIN SPREADING               
FM WEST TO EAST ACROSS CWA.                                                     
K INDEX VALUES ABOVE 30 AND PWATS ABOVE 1.5 INCHES ALSO LEAD TO                 
POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY DOWNPOURS IN THE STRONGEST CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS.             
CORFIDI VECTORS INDICATE THAT MOST ACTIVITY WILL KEEP TRUCKING TO               
THE NE SO UNLESS CELLS BEGIN TO TRAIN DO NOT FORSEE A FLOODING                  
THREAT. MODELS CONTINUE TO TREND QUICKER WITH EXIT OF THE TROUGH AND            
ANY PCPN. TRIMMED BACK POPS OVERNIGHT TUE NIGHT.                                
AFTER THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH EXITS THE REGION ON WED...A BROAD TROUGH             
DEVELOPS OFFSHORE THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THIS LEADS TO STRONG 250MB             
JET ENERGY STREAMING ACROSS NORTHERN PARTS OF THE ROCKIES INTO THE              
NORTH CENTRAL CONUS AND TO EASTERN CANADA. THIS WILL KEEP THE                   
PRIMARY SFC FRONT ALONG THE US/CANADIAN BORDER AND SHOULD KEEP PCPN             
OUT OF THE AREA UNTIL FRI. TROUGH SHIFTS INTO THE CONUS BY SAT AND              
THIS SHOULD GRADUALLY PUSH THE FRONT TOWARD UPR LAKES. INCREASING               
MOISTURE AND STRONG LOW LEVEL WINDS LEAD TO INCREASED CHANCES OF                
PCPN FRI INTO SAT. MAIN FRONT SLIDES THROUGH REGION LATE SAT SO PCPN            
CHANCES SHOULD WANE INTO SUN. MUCH COOLER TEMPS SUN/MON IN WAKE OF              
THE FRONT.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION (FOR THE 06Z TAF ISSUANCE)...                                         
SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS CENTRAL UPPER MICHIGAN OVERNIGHT                    
AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER IOWA MOVES INTO NORTHERN IL.                      
STEADIER RAINFALL WILL EVENTUALLY LOWER CIGS/VSBYS INTO THE MVFR                
RANGE AND THEN TO IFR CONDITIONS LATE IN THE NIGHT INTO THE MORNING.            
ALTHOUGH THE LOW AND PRECIP SHIELD SLIDES TO THE EAST...CIGS WILL               
ONLY GRADUALLY IMPROVE MONDAY AS SFC-850 MB MOISTURE REMAINS IN                 
PLACE FOR MOST OF THE DAY. THE LOWEST CIGS ARE EXPECTED AT KSAW WITH            
NE WINDS PROVIDING MORE DIRECT UPSLOPE FLOW. EXPECT LOW CLOUDS/FOG              
TO REDEVELOP THIS EVENING AS THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS IN PLACE            
AND WEAK ERLY SURFACE FLOW DEVELOPS AT KCMX AND E TO NE FLOW                    
CONTINUES AT KSAW.                                                              
&&                                                                              
.MARINE (FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FCST ISSUANCE)...                           
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH LAKE SUPERIOR TONIGHT. WINDS BEHIND              
THE FRONT WILL VEER WEST AND NORTHWEST. WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 15 TO            
25 KTS OVER THE EAST HALF OF THE LAKE AHEAD OF THE FRONT WHICH IS               
FAVORED FOR STRONGER WINDS IN SOUTHERLY FLOW REGIMES. THE AREA                  
AROUND GRAND MARAIS AT THE EAST END OF PICTURED ROCKS NATIONAL                  
LAKESHORE IS ONE LOCATION THAT WILL SEE THE HIGHEST WINDS. WINDS                
WILL DIMINISH TONIGHT AND ESPECIALLY ON MONDAY AS WEAKENING LOW PRES            
MOVES TO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION. THERE WILL BE SOME FOG                   
DEVELOPMENT OVER MAIN THE EAST END TONIGHT AS THE WINDS DIMINISH.               
NEXT ACTIVE LOW PRES TROUGH WILL RACE EAST AND CROSS LAKE SUPERIOR              
TUESDAY NIGHT. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL AGAIN WRAP UP IN ADVANCE OF THIS            
TROUGH.                                                                         
&&                                                                              
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE                                         
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
UPDATE...JLB                                                                    
SHORT TERM...DLG                                                                
LONG TERM...JLA                                                                 
MARINE...DLG                                                                    
AVIATION...JLB                                                                  
</pre> mi                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX                                      
1250 AM CDT MON OCT 1 2007                                                      
.AVIATION...                                                                    
A WEAK FRONT IS STILL MOVING SOUTH INTO THE NORTHERN PERMIAN                    
BASIN THIS MORNING. EXPECT MINOR WIND SHIFTS WITH THE PASSAGE                   
LATER THIS MORNING...BUT LIKELY NOT TOO NOTICEABLE WITH SURFACE                 
WINDS STAYING WELL BELOW 10KT.                                                  
HIGH CLOUD COVER IS PREDOMINANT ON SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS MORNING.              
THE ONLY LOW CLOUDS ON THE SCOPE ARE CURRENTLY WELL TO THE                      
SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA...CLOSER TO THE KSAT AREA. DO EXPECT THAT                 
LOWER CLOUDS WILL ADVECT TOWARDS THE AREA AND LIKELY BEGIN                      
AFFECTING THE EASTERN TAF SITES /KMAF & KFST/ BY DAYLIGHT AND                   
OTHERS SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE. DO NOT EXPECT ANY WIDESPREAD VISIBILITY           
PROBLEMS...AS WINDS WILL LIKELY STAY UP JUST ENOUGH TO KEEP ANY                 
POTENTIAL FOG DEVELOPMENTS FROM OCCURRING. KMAF /MAY/ BE THE                    
EXCEPTION AS WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN JUST CALM ENOUGH THROUGH              
THE EARLY MORNING HOURS TO ALLOW SOME MINOR BR TO DEVELOP...SO                  
HAVE TEMPO/D IN 5SM VIS FOR THIS POSSIBILITY.                                   
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 444 PM CDT SUN SEP 30 2007/                         
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
FAST MOVING UPPER LOW LIFTING NEWD INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS WITH                 
ASSOCD COLD FRONT PUSHING INTO S PLAINS. MEANWHILE PROMINENT MID                
LEVEL RIDGE AXIS IS ESTABLISHED ACRS W TX. NAM SUGGESTS COLD FRONT              
WILL NEAR NRN CWFA...BUT STRUGGLE TO MAKE IT MUCH FARTHER S AS SFC              
ANTICYCLONE TENDS TO REMAIN UNDERNEATH SLIGHTLY CONFLUENT NW MID                
LEVEL FLOW ACRS CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS. STRONG 3HR MSL PRESSURE                
RISES ERN CO/WRN KS SUGGEST COLD FRONT WILL BE FARTHER S. HAVE                  
OPTED TO INCORPORATE RUC INTO SHORT TERM PORTION TO REFLECT FRONT               
FARTHER S. AS FAR AS CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL GOES...MTNS AND VICINITY              
WILL HAVE BEST CHANCE INTO EARLY EVENING DUE TO LOCATION OF                     
THETA-E RIDGE...POSSIBILITY OF SHRTWV/S FROM THE S...AND AS WRN                 
AREAS ARE FARTHER REMOVED FROM 5H RIDGE AXIS. ISOLD STRONG MULTI-               
CELL STORMS WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE WITH 7H-5H LR/S NEAR 7 C/KM AND              
0-6KM SHEAR NEAR 20KTS. IF CONVECTION IS REALIZED ALONG BOUNDARY                
THEN IT MAY HAVE THE NEEDED PUSH TO MAKE IT INTO PB...OTHERWISE                 
WILL OPT TO KEEP WIND SHIFT N. WRT TO MORNING LOW TEMPS THEY HAVE               
BEEN TRENDING UPWARD OVER THE LAST 5 MORNINGS. PART OF THIS HAS                 
BEEN DUE TO WINDS STAYING UP OVERNIGHT IN ASSOCN WITH LLJ.                      
ALTHOUGH SFC DWPNTS WILL REMAIN UP (M60S) ACRS PB THE PW/S IN                   
GENERAL WILL DECREASE AND WINDS WILL BE LESS SO WILL GO SLIGHTLY                
COOLER THAN THIS MORNING...BUT MID TO UPPER 60S ARE STILL WELL                  
ABOVE NORMAL.                                                                   
BY MON P.M. MID LEVEL FLOW WILL BUCKLE ACRS THE GREAT BASIN AS                  
SHRTWV TROF MOVES INTO THE REGION WITH PATTERN SOMEWHAT PROGRESSIVE             
WITH AFOREMENTIONED RIDGE GETTING PUSHED E WITH WELL ESTABLISHED SW             
MID LEVEL FLOW ACRS CWFA. THIS SW MID LEVEL FLOW WILL BE ABLE TO TAP            
PACIFIC MSTR WITH DECENT MSTR FETCH E OF MID LEVEL TROF AXIS. SHRTWV            
TROF/S IN ADVANCE OF MAIN TROF AXIS WILL BE FAVORED W OF CWFA WHERE             
STRONGER SW MID LEVEL FLOW WILL BE AND ATTP WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP               
BEST W MON. AS THIS SYSTEM PROGRESS E TUE THE CHANCE OF RAIN WILL SHIFT         
E INTO THE PLAINS WITH THETA-E RIDGE OVERHEAD AND SUFFICIENT LIFT               
PROVIDE BY MID LEVEL TROF. NAM ALSO SUGGEST MODEST LOW LEVEL                    
CONVERGENCE WITH WEAK SFC LOW ACRS SE NM...COLD FRONT IN THE S                  
PLAINS...AND SFC TROF ACRS LOWER TRANS PECOS. CURRENT FCST HAS THIS             
TREND OF PUSHING HIER POPS E TUE...HOWEVER WILL INCREASE CENTRAL/N              
PB INTO SCT POPS. PROBABLY COOLER TUE WITH CLOUD COVER. PROGRESSIVE             
NATURE OF THIS TROF WILL FAVOR COLD FRONT PUSHING S THRU PB BY WED              
A.M. AND WILL TEND TOWARD DRY FCST N WITH ISOLD/SLGHT CHC POPS S.               
THUR SW FLOW AT 7H INCREASES TO AROUND 15KTS WITH WELL DEVELOPED LEE            
TROF. LOW LEVEL MSTR WILL LIKELY STILL HOLD THUR SO ISOLD POPS STILL            
WARRANTED IN THE HIER TERRAIN. DRY AIR BECOMES APPARENT IN THE MODEL            
DATA BY FRI P.M. WITH LOW LEVEL THERMAL RIDGE SUGGESTING TEMPS COULD            
BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL INTO SAT. MEANWHILE 7H WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO              
INCREASE INTO SAT WITH VERY DRY AIR MAKING EWD AT LEAST INTO SE NM              
PLAINS AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. GFS/ECMWF IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT SHARP            
5H TROF AXIS WILL PASS PUSHING COLD FRONT THRU...PROBABLY EARLY SUN.            
ATTP WILL INCREASE TEMPS SOME FRI/SAT PER 85H TEMPS AND NOTE COOLER             
WX FOR SUNDAY.                                                                  
&&                                                                              
.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
NM...NONE.                                                                      
TX...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
13                                                                              
</pre> tx                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL                                         
930 AM EDT MON OCT 01 2007                                                      
.SYNOPSIS/UPDATE...                                                             
13Z WATER VAPOR AND H4 RUC ANALYSIS SHOWING A VERY ACTIVE NORTHERN              
STREAM ACROSS THE NORTHERN U.S. AND SOUTHERN CANADA. FEATURES OF                
NOTE INCLUDE A SHARP TROUGH COMING ASHORE FROM BRITISH COLUMBIA TO              
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA...RIDGING FURTHER DOWNSTREAM ACROSS THE                     
PLAINS...ANOTHER POTENT SHORTWAVE TRAVERSING THE GREAT LAKE STATES              
FOLLOWED BY YET ANOTHER RIDGE UP THE EAST COAST TO NEW ENGLAND.                 
CLOSER TO HOME WE STILL SEE UPPER RIDGING ALONG THE GULF COAST                  
INCLUDING OUR FORECAST AREA. AN UPPER LOW IS SPINNING ACROSS THE                
FLORIDA STRAITS AND SO FAR IS HAVING LITTLE TO NO IMPACT FOR OUR                
WEATHER.                                                                        
AT THE SURFACE...TIGHT GRADIENT CONTINUES OVER THE REGION BETWEEN               
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH AND A SURFACE TROUGH                          
APPROACHING THE SOUTHEAST COAST OF THE FL PENINSULA. THIS GRADIENT              
IS RESULTING IN A STEADY NORTHEAST FLOW. PLENTY OF ATLANTIC MOISTURE            
IS BEING ADVECTED ASHORE ALONG THE EAST COAST OF THE PENINSULA THIS             
MORNING AND THIS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAY. REGIONAL            
RADAR SHOWS SCT-NMRS SHOWERS/SPRINKLES MOVING ASHORE FROM                       
JACKSONVILLE SOUTHWARD TO DAYTONA BEACH AND MELBOURNE. RADAR HAS                
SHOWN A FEW OF THESE SHOWERS MAKING THE TRIP ACROSS THE PENINSULA TO            
OUR SOUTHEAST BIG BEND ZONES. RADAR SAMPLING IS FAIRLY HIGH IN THIS             
AREA AND AM NOT CONVINCED THAT MOST IF NOT ALL OF THIS ACTIVITY IS              
REMAINING ALOFT. IF ANY OF THIS ACTIVITY IS REACHING THE SURFACE                
IT SHOULD BE VERY LIGHT AND AMOUNT TO ONLY A TRACE TO A FEW                     
HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH AT MOST. DID ADD A SLIGHT 15-20% POP WITH                 
SPRINKLE WORDING TO THE FORECAST OVER TAYLOR...LAFAYETTE AND DIXIE              
COUNTIES THROUGH THE AFTERNOON TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS ACTIVITY...BUT               
THIS SHOULD NOT HAVE A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT EITHER WAY. SPRINKLES OR              
NOT...THE ATLANTIC MOISTURE IS RESULTING IN HIGHER CLOUDCOVER SOUTH             
AND EAST OF A LINE FROM TLH TO KVLD THIS MORNING AND THIS IS LIKELY             
TO PERSIST INTO THE AFTERNOON. WILL UPDATE THE GRIDS TO ACCOUNT FOR             
THIS TREND. WITH THE HIGHER CLOUD COVER AND ALSO SOME ADDITIONAL                
COOLING AS A RESULT OF EVAPORATING SHOWERS/SPRINKLES...WILL DROP                
HIGH TEMPS OVER THE EFFECTED REGION ANOTHER COUPLE OF DEGREES.                  
OUTSIDE OF THE EASTERN BIG BEND AREA...FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK WITH             
A PLEASANT DAY IN STORE. PARTLY SUNNY SKIES AND HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE             
AND UPPER 80S CAN BE EXPECTED. 12Z KTLH SOUNDING SHOWING VERY DRY               
AIRMASS ABOVE 750MB (DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS OF 40-50C) AND A LOW PW               
AROUND 1.05".  WITH A PROFILE LIKE THIS...THE DRY FORECAST LOOKS                
JUST FINE. EXPECT A BREEZY DAY INTO THE AFTERNOON WITH NORTHEAST                
WINDS BETWEEN 10 AND 15 MPH COMMON.                                             
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
VFR CONDITIONS WITH CIGS AROUND 4K AND 7-8K WILL LIKELY CONTINUE                
THROUGH TONIGHT...WITH OCCASIONAL BORDERLINE MVFR CIGS DOWN TO 3K               
FT MOVING WEST OFF THE ATLANTIC AND AFFECTING MAINLY KVLD AND KTLH.             
SUSTAINED NE WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 MPH WILL                    
CONTINUE INTO SUNSET. VFR CONDS LOOK GOOD INTO OVERNIGHT HOURS.                 
&&                                                                              
.MARINE...                                                                      
SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS CONTINUE ACROSS THE FORECAST WATERS THIS                 
MORNING AND WILL MAKE NO CHANGES TO THE ADVISORIES AT THIS TIME.                
WINDS HAVE BEEN RUNNING OUT OF THE NORTHEAST AROUND 20 KNOTS WITH               
GUSTS AROUND 25 KNOTS. SEAS AT THE BUOYS HAVE BEEN RUNNING BETWEEN              
5 AND 7 FEET.                                                                   
&&                                                                              
.FIRE WEATHER...                                                                
WITH SOME MINOR CHANGES TO THE DEWPOINT GRIDS TO REPRESENT MORNING              
TRENDS AND LATEST GUIDANCE...STILL ONLY RECEIVING AN HOUR OR LESS               
OF RH AROUND 35 PERCENT FOR A VERY SMALL AREA OF THE EASTERN FLORIDA            
PANHANDLE ALONG AND TO THE NORTH OF I-10. WILL LEAVE WORDING JUST               
WORDING IN THE FWF FOR THE TIME BEING...BUT WILL KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON            
THE DIURNAL AFTERNOON DEWPOINT DECREASE. IF MIXING IS SLIGHTLY                  
BETTER THAN EXPECTED THAN SOME FIRE WX CONCERNS MAY BE POSSIBLE FOR             
PLACES LIKE WALTON...JACKSON...AND HOLMES COUNTIES.                             
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
TALLAHASSEE  86  64  89  68  86 /   0   0  10  10  30                           
PANAMA CITY  86  69  88  71  86 /   0   0  05  10  30                           
DOTHAN       87  59  89  64  89 /   0   0   0  05  20                           
ALBANY       86  61  89  64  88 /   0   0   0  05  20                           
VALDOSTA     84  65  88  67  87 /  10  05  10  20  30                           
CROSS CITY   84  69  86  69  87 /  20  10  30  30  30                           
&&                                                                              
.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
AL...NONE.                                                                      
GA...NONE.                                                                      
FL...NONE.                                                                      
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY ALL LEGS.                                             
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
AVIATION...BLOCK                                                                
REST OF DISCUSSION...MROCZKA                                                    
</pre> fl                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
1138 AM EDT MON OCT 1 2007                                                      
.DISCUSSION (ISSUED AT 1132 AM EDT)...                                          
THE MAIN CONCERN WITH THIS FORECAST UPDATE IS FOG AND PRECIPITATION             
POTENTIAL FOR THIS AFTERNOON.                                                   
TODAY...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC SHOWING A CLOSED LOW OVER                   
SOUTHEAST WISCONSIN MOVING INTO SOUTH CENTRAL LOWER MICHIGAN THIS               
AFTERNOON.  RIDGES ARE OVER NEW ENGLAND AND THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI               
RIVER VALLEY. A TROUGH IS ALSO OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. SHORTWAVE             
ENERGY IS SWEEPING THROUGH CENTRAL AND EASTERN U.P. SURFACE RIDGE IS            
OVER ONTARIO PUSHING A COLD FRONT THROUGH EASTERN U.P. DEEP MOISTURE            
WILL SHIFT INTO LOWER MICHGIAN THIS AFTERNOON. THE SURFACE RH WILL              
REMAIN 90 PERCENT OR GREATER OVER THE U.P. THIS AFTERNOON AS THE                
MOISTURE IS TRAPPED UNDER A SURFACE INVERSION. CLOUD COVER WILL SLOW            
THE HEATING AND THE CURRENT GRIDDED TEMPERATURES STILL LOOK                     
REASONABLE.                                                                     
TONIGHT AND LATER...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER WESTERN MONTANA WILL                
CONTINUE ITS EASTWARD MARCH...REACHING THE WESTERN DAKOTAS BY 12Z               
TUE. THE COLD FRONT...CURRENTLY THE LEE TROUGH...ASSOCIATED WITH THE            
UPPER TROUGH SHOULD REACH GRAND FORKS AROUND THE SAME TIME. CLOSER              
TO HOME...THE UPPER TROUGH WILL CAUSE THE UPPER RIDGE TO BUILD UP               
INTO UPPER MICHIGAN...RESULTING IN A DRY NIGHT WITH SUBSIDENCE                  
ALOFT. HOWEVER...THIS SUBSIDENCE AND DRYING ALOFT WITH LOW LEVEL                
MOISTURE TRAPPED AT THE SURFACE PRESENTS A CONCERN FOR                          
FOG...ESPECIALLY WITH LIGHT WINDS THROUGH AT LEAST THE EARLY PORTION            
OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS THE SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE PLAINS CROSSES.            
GUIDANCE ALONG WITH SOUNDINGS SHOW A VERY FAVORABLE SCENARIO FOR                
FOG...AND THUS HAVE INCREASED THE COVERAGE FURTHER TO GO WITH                   
WIDESPREAD FOG AND AREAS OF DENSE FOG. NEXT SHIFT MAY NEED TO ISSUE             
A DENSE FOG ADVISORY. RETURN FLOW DEVELOPING TOWARDS SUNRISE OUT IN             
THE WESTERN U.P. MAY START TO BREAK UP THE FOG...PARTICULARLY IN                
DOWNSLOPE AREAS. LOW TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN WARM WITH STRATUS               
AND FOG AROUND.                                                                 
TUE INTO TUE NIGHT...THE MAIN FOCUS WILL REMAIN ON THE IMPACTS OF               
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AS IT MOVES EASTWARD TO THE MN/WI LINE AT 00Z            
WED AND TO EASTERN ONTARIO BY 12Z WED. THE RAPID PROGRESSION OF THIS            
FEATURE ONLY ALLOWS FOR A NARROW AXIS OF MOISTURE TO ADVECT UP AHEAD            
OF THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT...AS INDICATED BY 850MB THETA-E                    
ADVECTION. THUS IT DOES NOT APPEAR ANY MORE THAT SHOWERS OR STORMS              
COULD FORM DOWNSTREAM OVER NORTHERN WI AND ALONG THE WI BORDER.                 
TIMING OF THE FEATURE HAS SPED UP WITH THE 00Z GFS/12Z                          
ECMWF...SHOWING THE COLD FRONT AND AXIS OF GREATEST 850MB THETA-E               
ADVECTION AND MOISTURE CONVERGENCE IN NW WI AND IWD AREA AT                     
18Z...OVER THE CENTRAL U.P. AT 00Z...AND EAST OF SAULT STE MARIE BY             
06Z. THE UKMET AND NAM ARE A BIT SLOWER WITH THE TROUGH...THUS WILL             
NOT CLEAR PCPN OUT AS FAST AS THE GFS/ECMWF. CHANGES MAY BE REQUIRED            
OVER THE NEXT FEW SHIFTS AS THE EXACT TROUGH TIMING BECOMES MORE                
CERTAIN. GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE DYNAMICS AND WARM ADVECTION SHOWN            
WITH THE TROUGH (12 HR 500MB HEIGHT CHANGE OF 100-130 M AND 850MB               
WINDS OF 40 KT)...THINK IT IS REASONABLE TO CONTINUE WITH LIKELY                
POPS. SOME SUN IS POSSIBLE ON TUE AHEAD OF THE PCPN...BUT IT IS                 
UNCERTAIN HOW LONG GIVEN THE TIMING DIFFERENCES. THE SLOWER NAM                 
SOLUTION WOULD ALLOW HIGHS TO REACH NEAR 70 WHEREAS THE FASTER GFS              
MAY KEEPS HIGHS MORE IN THE MID 60S. PLAN ON GOING IN-BETWEEN THE               
TWO FOR NOW.                                                                    
WED AND THU...QUIET WEATHER WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE                  
EXPECTED DURING THIS PERIOD...DUE TO ZONAL FLOW ALOFT GRADUALLY                 
BACKING SW BRINGING MILD DOWNSLOPED PACIFIC AIR INTO THE GREAT LAKES            
REGION. GFS SOUNDINGS AND ECMWF RH PROGS DEPICT VERY LITTLE IN THE              
WAY OF CLOUDS DURING THIS PERIOD TOO...EXCEPT ACROSS WESTERN LAKE               
SUPERIOR WED NIGHT AND THU WHERE SOME ISENTROPIC LIFT BEGINS AND                
CREATES A MID CLOUD DECK. GIVEN PLENTY OF SUN BOTH DAYS...DRY                   
AIR...AND 850MB TEMPS RISING FROM 8C AT 18Z WED TO 12C AT 18Z THU               
SUPPORTS HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S BOTH DAYS. S TO SW                   
SURFACE WINDS BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE PROGGED OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC               
AND LOW PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS MANITOBA TO HUDSON BAY WILL YIELD AN             
EXTRA COUPLE DEGREES FOR DOWNSLOPE AREAS. BY LATE THU...PRESSURES               
FALLING OVER THE PLAINS SHOULD CAUSE WINDS TO BACK MORE                         
SOUTHEASTERLY...RESULTING IN SOME COOLING ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE               
KEWEENAW PENINSULA.                                                             
THU NIGHT THROUGH SUN...MUCH OF THIS PERIOD WILL BE FOCUSED ON THE              
MECHANISM THAT CAUSES THE ZONAL FLOW OVER THE AREA ON WED TO BACK SW            
ON THU...A DEEP TROUGH DIGGING DOWN INTO THE WESTERN U.S.. THERE ARE            
TWO QUESTIONS WITH THE TROUGH...HOW DEEP IT WILL BE AND HOW QUICK IT            
PUSHES EASTWARD. ECMWF AND GFS RUNS SEEM TO BE CONSISTENT WITHIN                
THEMSELVES WITH TWO SCENARIOS. THE ECMWF ALLOWS THE TROUGH TO DIG               
DOWN INTO THE FOUR CORNERS AREA BY 00Z SUN...PUMPING UP A LARGE                 
RIDGE DOWNSTREAM ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S.. IF THIS OCCURS...THE ECMWF            
DEPICTS A VERY WARM AND HUMID DAY ON SAT WITH BREEZY SOUTH                      
WINDS...850MB TEMPS OF 16-18C AND 850MB DEWPOINTS AROUND 14C. THIS              
IS THEN FOLLOWED BY A POSSIBLE HEAVY RAIN EVENT ON SUN. ON THE OTHER            
SIDE OF THE COIN...THE GFS IS MORE PROGRESSIVE AND SHOWS THE BASE OF            
THE UPPER TROUGH (AN UPPER LOW) INTO THE OMAHA AREA BY 00Z SUN WHICH            
LIFTS UP INTO THE GREAT LAKES AREA ON SUN. IF THIS SOLUTION                     
OCCURS...THE GFS WRAPS UP THE UPPER LOW SO MUCH AND HAS 850MB TEMPS             
DOWN TO -4C AT IWD BY 12Z ALONG WITH PLENTY OF QPF...SUGGESTING A               
POSSIBLE SNOWSTORM. BASED ON THE CANADIAN AND UKMET WHICH LOOK MORE             
LIKE THE ECMWF...THE GFS SOLUTION IS VERY MUCH AN OUTLIER...THOUGH              
SNOWSTORMS FOR THE FIRST WEEKEND OF OCTOBER ARE DEFINITELY NOT                  
UNCOMMON HERE. IN ANY EVENT...EITHER SOLUTION SUGGESTS AN                       
INTERESTING WEEKEND IS IN STORE...WITH POTENTIAL FOR RECORD HIGHS               
ALONG WITH HEAVY PCPN.                                                          
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION (FOR THE 12Z TAF ISSUANCE)...                                         
-SHRA/-DZ HAVE EDGED E OF KCMX IN THE LAST FEW HRS AND VIS AND CIGS             
HAVE IMPROVED TO VFR AND MVFR RESPECTIVELY. WHILE THERE WILL BE SOME            
VERY LIMITED DRYING AT KCMX...EXPECT MVFR CIGS TO BE THE RULE TODAY.            
MEANWHILE...-SHRA/-DZ WILL PROBABLY LINGER THRU THE ENTIRE MORNING              
AT KSAW AS PCPN SHIELD ASSOCIATED WITH DISTURBANCE OVER SRN WI/NRN              
IL ONLY DRIFTS EWD. ALTHOUGH LIGHT...DEVELOPING NRLY UPSLOPING WINDS            
WILL RESULT IN LOW CIGS THRU THE DAY AT KSAW WITH IFR CIGS PROBABLY             
ONLY RISING TO THE LOW END OF MVFR IN THE AFTN. WITHOUT ANY                     
SIGNIFICANT ADVECTION OF DRIER AIR INTO THE AREA TODAY AND WITH                 
WINDS BECOMING LIGHT/CALM THIS EVENING...VIS AND CIGS SHOULD CRASH              
AT KCMX/KSAW TO VLIFR MID TO LATE EVENING.                                      
&&                                                                              
.MARINE (FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FCST ISSUANCE)...                           
WINDS WILL DIMINISH THRU THE DAY TODAY AS LOW PRES OVER NE IA MOVES             
NE AND WEAKENS...DISSIPATING THIS EVENING. AS THE WINDS DIMINISH...             
WILL NEED TO WATCH FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT...ESPECIALLY TONIGHT. NEXT               
ACTIVE LOW PRES TROUGH WILL RACE E AND CROSS LAKE SUPERIOR TUE                  
NIGHT. SRLY WINDS WILL AGAIN RAMP UP IN ADVANCE OF THIS TROUGH...AND            
IT`S NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT A FEW GALE FORCE GUSTS COULD OCCUR            
OVER THE E HALF OF THE LAKE LATE TUE AFTN/EVENING. WINDS FOR THE                
REMAINDER OF THE FCST (WED THRU FRI) SHOULD GENERALLY BE IN THE 10              
TO 20KT RANGE WITH AN OCCASIONAL PERIOD OF 15 TO 25KT.                          
&&                                                                              
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE                                         
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SYNOPSIS AND TODAY...DLG                                                        
TONIGHT AND LATER DISCUSSION...AJ                                               
AVIATION...ROLFSON                                                              
MARINE...ROLFSON                                                                
</pre> mi                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
740 AM EDT MON OCT 1 2007                                                       
UPDATED FOR AVIATION DISCUSSION                                                 
.SYNOPSIS (ISSUED AT 412 AM EDT)...                                             
07Z WATER VAPOR LOOP AND RUC 500MB HEIGHT ANALYSIS SHOWED AN UPPER              
LEVEL TROUGH FROM NORTHERN ONTARIO INTO IOWA...WITH A 573 DAM LOW               
NEAR CEDAR RAPIDS IOWA. RIDGES ARE PRESENT ON EITHER SIDE OF THE                
TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN U.S. AND WESTERN PLAINS. FARTHER WEST...A               
MORE IMPRESSIVE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CAN BE SEEN ALONG THE PACIFIC NW             
COASTLINE. ISENTROPIC LIFT DOWNSTREAM OF THE UPPER LOW...IN ADDITION            
TO UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE IN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF A 110 KT              
JET NEAR THUNDER BAY ONTARIO...IS SUPPORTING SHOWERS FROM EASTERN               
WI/LAKE MI UP INTO THE CENTRAL U.P.. WITH PLENTY OF CLOUDS OVER THE             
AREA AND DEWPOINTS IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S...TEMPERATURES ARE QUITE             
WARM...CLOSER TO AVERAGE HIGHS. TO THE WEST OF THE AREA...                      
OBSERVATIONS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICT LOW CLOUDS ACROSS NORTHERN            
MN FLOWING IN BEHIND A COLD FRONT CROSSING WESTERN UPPER MICHIGAN.              
CMX AND IWD NOW HAVE LIFR CEILINGS WITH MVFR VISIBILITIES. 00Z INL              
SOUNDING SHOWED THIS WITH A SATURATED LAYER NEAR 875MB WHICH                    
REPRESENTS THE COLD FRONTAL INVERSION. CLOUDS CLEAR OUT ACROSS                  
WESTERN MN AND THE DAKOTAS WHERE A SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE               
EXISTS WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 30S. FARTHER WEST...LEE TROUGHING IS               
ALREADY DEVELOPING ALONG THE ROCKIES...WITH A 1005MB LOW CENTERED               
NEAR EDMONTON ALBERTA DOWNSTREAM OF THE PACIFIC NW TROUGH.                      
NOTE: WE DID NOT BREAK THE ALL-TIME SEPTEMBER PCPN RECORD AT THE                
OFFICE. AT MIDNIGHT EST...THE TOTAL SEPTEMBER RAINFALL WAS 7.48                 
INCHES...ABOUT 0.12 OF AN INCH SHORT OF THE 7.60 INCH RECORD. HAD               
THE CURRENT SHOWERS BEEN A FEW HOURS EARLIER...WE PROBABLY WOULD                
HAVE BROKE IT.                                                                  
&&                                                                              
.DISCUSSION (ISSUED AT 412 AM EDT)...                                           
MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS ARE FOG DEVELOPMENT TONIGHT AND PCPN FOR                 
TUE/TUE NIGHT.                                                                  
TODAY...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ALONG THE PACIFIC NW COASTLINE IS PROGGED            
TO MOVE INTO WESTERN MONTANA BY 00Z...FORCING RIDGING TO BUILD UP               
INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND EVENTUALLY THE DULUTH AREA BY 00Z WITH             
500MB HEIGHTS OF 580 DAM. THIS RIDGING WILL ALSO FORCE THE UPPER LOW            
OVER IOWA TO CONTINUE MOVING...THOUGH IT APPEARS MORE EAST THAN                 
NORTHEAST AS EXPECTED YESTERDAY. BY 00Z...MOST OF THE MODELS HAVE               
THE LOW NEAR DETROIT. ALTHOUGH THE TRACK IS FARTHER SOUTH...VERY                
LITTLE CHANGES ARE NEEDED TO THE PCPN FORECAST. SHOWERS PRESENT OVER            
THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE CWA SHOULD GRADUALLY MOVE EAST AND FALL              
APART AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES EAST AND FILLS...IN ADDITION TO THE JET            
STREAK OVER THUNDER BAY MOVING NE AWAY FROM THE AREA. LOW CLOUDS...             
LIKELY WITH CLOUD TOPS ONLY NEAR 3000 FT DUE TO SUBSIDENCE AND                  
DRYING OCCURRING ALOFT...SHOULD FILL IN IN THE WAKE OF THE UPPER                
LOW. RECENT RAINFALL WILL HELP MATTERS TOO IN DEVELOPING THE LOW                
CLOUDS/FOG. THE LATE TIME OF YEAR WILL ALSO HELP IN PREVENTING THE              
LOW CLOUD DECK FROM MIXING OUT. IN ADDITION...WITH THE SURFACE COLD             
FRONT CROSSING THE CWA...NORTHERLY FLOW BEHIND IT SHOULD RESULT IN              
SOME FOG AND/OR UPSLOPE DRIZZLE OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OUT OF THE              
LOW CLOUD DECK. APPEARS THE DRIZZLE WILL BE MOSTLY CONFINED TO THE              
NORTH CENTRAL U.P. WHERE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS DEEPEST...THOUGH SOME            
DRIZZLE/FOG IS POSSIBLE THIS MORNING IN THE WESTERN U.P. HIGHER                 
TERRAIN AS SURFACE OBS FROM IWD AND CMX INDICATE. GIVEN THE                     
CLOUDS...EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO HAVE A HARD TIME CLIMBING MUCH                  
TODAY. GENERALLY FOLLOWED MET/MAV GUIDANCE VALUES.                              
TONIGHT...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER WESTERN MONTANA WILL CONTINUE ITS             
EASTWARD MARCH...REACHING THE WESTERN DAKOTAS BY 12Z TUE. THE COLD              
FRONT...CURRENTLY THE LEE TROUGH...ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER TROUGH             
SHOULD REACH GRAND FORKS AROUND THE SAME TIME. CLOSER TO HOME...THE             
UPPER TROUGH WILL CAUSE THE UPPER RIDGE TO BUILD UP INTO UPPER                  
MICHIGAN...RESULTING IN A DRY NIGHT WITH SUBSIDENCE ALOFT.                      
HOWEVER...THIS SUBSIDENCE AND DRYING ALOFT WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE              
TRAPPED AT THE SURFACE PRESENTS A CONCERN FOR FOG...ESPECIALLY WITH             
LIGHT WINDS THROUGH AT LEAST THE EARLY PORTION OF THE OVERNIGHT                 
HOURS AS THE SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE PLAINS CROSSES. GUIDANCE ALONG              
WITH SOUNDINGS SHOW A VERY FAVORABLE SCENARIO FOR FOG...AND THUS                
HAVE INCREASED THE COVERAGE FURTHER TO GO WITH WIDESPREAD FOG AND               
AREAS OF DENSE FOG. NEXT SHIFT MAY NEED TO ISSUE A DENSE FOG                    
ADVISORY. RETURN FLOW DEVELOPING TOWARDS SUNRISE OUT IN THE WESTERN             
U.P. MAY START TO BREAK UP THE FOG...PARTICULARLY IN DOWNSLOPE                  
AREAS. LOW TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN WARM WITH STRATUS AND FOG                 
AROUND.                                                                         
TUE INTO TUE NIGHT...THE MAIN FOCUS WILL REMAIN ON THE IMPACTS OF               
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AS IT MOVES EASTWARD TO THE MN/WI LINE AT 00Z            
WED AND TO EASTERN ONTARIO BY 12Z WED. THE RAPID PROGRESSION OF THIS            
FEATURE ONLY ALLOWS FOR A NARROW AXIS OF MOISTURE TO ADVECT UP AHEAD            
OF THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT...AS INDICATED BY 850MB THETA-E                    
ADVECTION. THUS IT DOES NOT APPEAR ANY MORE THAT SHOWERS OR STORMS              
COULD FORM DOWNSTREAM OVER NORTHERN WI AND ALONG THE WI BORDER.                 
TIMING OF THE FEATURE HAS SPED UP WITH THE 00Z GFS/12Z                          
ECMWF...SHOWING THE COLD FRONT AND AXIS OF GREATEST 850MB THETA-E               
ADVECTION AND MOISTURE CONVERGENCE IN NW WI AND IWD AREA AT                     
18Z...OVER THE CENTRAL U.P. AT 00Z...AND EAST OF SAULT STE MARIE BY             
06Z. THE UKMET AND NAM ARE A BIT SLOWER WITH THE TROUGH...THUS WILL             
NOT CLEAR PCPN OUT AS FAST AS THE GFS/ECMWF. CHANGES MAY BE REQUIRED            
OVER THE NEXT FEW SHIFTS AS THE EXACT TROUGH TIMING BECOMES MORE                
CERTAIN. GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE DYNAMICS AND WARM ADVECTION SHOWN            
WITH THE TROUGH (12 HR 500MB HEIGHT CHANGE OF 100-130 M AND 850MB               
WINDS OF 40 KT)...THINK IT IS REASONABLE TO CONTINUE WITH LIKELY                
POPS. SOME SUN IS POSSIBLE ON TUE AHEAD OF THE PCPN...BUT IT IS                 
UNCERTAIN HOW LONG GIVEN THE TIMING DIFFERENCES. THE SLOWER NAM                 
SOLUTION WOULD ALLOW HIGHS TO REACH NEAR 70 WHEREAS THE FASTER GFS              
MAY KEEPS HIGHS MORE IN THE MID 60S. PLAN ON GOING IN-BETWEEN THE               
TWO FOR NOW.                                                                    
WED AND THU...QUIET WEATHER WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE                  
EXPECTED DURING THIS PERIOD...DUE TO ZONAL FLOW ALOFT GRADUALLY                 
BACKING SW BRINGING MILD DOWNSLOPED PACIFIC AIR INTO THE GREAT LAKES            
REGION. GFS SOUNDINGS AND ECMWF RH PROGS DEPICT VERY LITTLE IN THE              
WAY OF CLOUDS DURING THIS PERIOD TOO...EXCEPT ACROSS WESTERN LAKE               
SUPERIOR WED NIGHT AND THU WHERE SOME ISENTROPIC LIFT BEGINS AND                
CREATES A MID CLOUD DECK. GIVEN PLENTY OF SUN BOTH DAYS...DRY                   
AIR...AND 850MB TEMPS RISING FROM 8C AT 18Z WED TO 12C AT 18Z THU               
SUPPORTS HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S BOTH DAYS. S TO SW                   
SURFACE WINDS BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE PROGGED OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC               
AND LOW PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS MANITOBA TO HUDSON BAY WILL YIELD AN             
EXTRA COUPLE DEGREES FOR DOWNSLOPE AREAS. BY LATE THU...PRESSURES               
FALLING OVER THE PLAINS SHOULD CAUSE WINDS TO BACK MORE                         
SOUTHEASTERLY...RESULTING IN SOME COOLING ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE               
KEWEENAW PENINSULA.                                                             
THU NIGHT THROUGH SUN...MUCH OF THIS PERIOD WILL BE FOCUSED ON THE              
MECHANISM THAT CAUSES THE ZONAL FLOW OVER THE AREA ON WED TO BACK SW            
ON THU...A DEEP TROUGH DIGGING DOWN INTO THE WESTERN U.S.. THERE ARE            
TWO QUESTIONS WITH THE TROUGH...HOW DEEP IT WILL BE AND HOW QUICK IT            
PUSHES EASTWARD. ECMWF AND GFS RUNS SEEM TO BE CONSISTENT WITHIN                
THEMSELVES WITH TWO SCENARIOS. THE ECMWF ALLOWS THE TROUGH TO DIG               
DOWN INTO THE FOUR CORNERS AREA BY 00Z SUN...PUMPING UP A LARGE                 
RIDGE DOWNSTREAM ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S.. IF THIS OCCURS...THE ECMWF            
DEPICTS A VERY WARM AND HUMID DAY ON SAT WITH BREEZY SOUTH                      
WINDS...850MB TEMPS OF 16-18C AND 850MB DEWPOINTS AROUND 14C. THIS              
IS THEN FOLLOWED BY A POSSIBLE HEAVY RAIN EVENT ON SUN. ON THE OTHER            
SIDE OF THE COIN...THE GFS IS MORE PROGRESSIVE AND SHOWS THE BASE OF            
THE UPPER TROUGH (AN UPPER LOW) INTO THE OMAHA AREA BY 00Z SUN WHICH            
LIFTS UP INTO THE GREAT LAKES AREA ON SUN. IF THIS SOLUTION                     
OCCURS...THE GFS WRAPS UP THE UPPER LOW SO MUCH AND HAS 850MB TEMPS             
DOWN TO -4C AT IWD BY 12Z ALONG WITH PLENTY OF QPF...SUGGESTING A               
POSSIBLE SNOWSTORM. BASED ON THE CANADIAN AND UKMET WHICH LOOK MORE             
LIKE THE ECMWF...THE GFS SOLUTION IS VERY MUCH AN OUTLIER...THOUGH              
SNOWSTORMS FOR THE FIRST WEEKEND OF OCTOBER ARE DEFINITELY NOT                  
UNCOMMON HERE. IN ANY EVENT...EITHER SOLUTION SUGGESTS AN                       
INTERESTING WEEKEND IS IN STORE...WITH POTENTIAL FOR RECORD HIGHS               
ALONG WITH HEAVY PCPN.                                                          
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION (FOR THE 12Z TAF ISSUANCE)...                                         
-SHRA/-DZ HAVE EDGED E OF KCMX IN THE LAST FEW HRS AND VIS AND CIGS             
HAVE IMPROVED TO VFR AND MVFR RESPECTIVELY. WHILE THERE WILL BE SOME            
VERY LIMITED DRYING AT KCMX...EXPECT MVFR CIGS TO BE THE RULE TODAY.            
MEANWHILE...-SHRA/-DZ WILL PROBABLY LINGER THRU THE ENTIRE MORNING              
AT KSAW AS PCPN SHIELD ASSOCIATED WITH DISTURBANCE OVER SRN WI/NRN              
IL ONLY DRIFTS EWD. ALTHOUGH LIGHT...DEVELOPING NRLY UPSLOPING WINDS            
WILL RESULT IN LOW CIGS THRU THE DAY AT KSAW WITH IFR CIGS PROBABLY             
ONLY RISING TO THE LOW END OF MVFR IN THE AFTN. WITHOUT ANY                     
SIGNIFICANT ADVECTION OF DRIER AIR INTO THE AREA TODAY AND WITH                 
WINDS BECOMING LIGHT/CALM THIS EVENING...VIS AND CIGS SHOULD CRASH              
AT KCMX/KSAW TO VLIFR MID TO LATE EVENING.                                      
&&                                                                              
.MARINE (FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FCST ISSUANCE)...                           
WINDS WILL DIMINISH THRU THE DAY TODAY AS LOW PRES OVER NE IA MOVES             
NE AND WEAKENS...DISSIPATING THIS EVENING. AS THE WINDS DIMINISH...             
WILL NEED TO WATCH FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT...ESPECIALLY TONIGHT. NEXT               
ACTIVE LOW PRES TROUGH WILL RACE E AND CROSS LAKE SUPERIOR TUE                  
NIGHT. SRLY WINDS WILL AGAIN RAMP UP IN ADVANCE OF THIS TROUGH...AND            
IT`S NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT A FEW GALE FORCE GUSTS COULD OCCUR            
OVER THE E HALF OF THE LAKE LATE TUE AFTN/EVENING. WINDS FOR THE                
REMAINDER OF THE FCST (WED THRU FRI) SHOULD GENERALLY BE IN THE 10              
TO 20KT RANGE WITH AN OCCASIONAL PERIOD OF 15 TO 25KT.                          
&&                                                                              
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE                                         
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SYNOPSIS/DISCUSSION...AJ                                                        
AVIATION...ROLFSON                                                              
MARINE...ROLFSON                                                                
</pre> mi                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX                                      
952 AM CDT MON OCT 1 2007                                                       
.UPDATE...RUC IS ANALYZING AN ELONGATED CYCLONIC VORT MAX DRAPED                
ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS EXTENDING INTO SE TX. 12Z CRP SOUNDING               
HAS A PW OF APPROXIMATELY 2 AND A QUARTER INCHES WITH CONDITIONALLY             
UNSTABLE LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND A 700MB TEMP OF 8C. WITH A                   
MOIST TROPICAL AIR MASS IN PLACE...A CONDITIONALLY UNSTABLE                     
THERMODYNAMIC PROFILE...AND UPPER SUPPORT OVER THE REGION WITH                  
CONVECTION ALREADY DEVELOPING OVER THE INLAND SECTIONS...WENT                   
AHEAD AND KICKED UP FIRST PERIOD POPS AREAWIDE. OTHERWISE...THE                 
REMAINING WEATHER ELEMENTS APPEAR TO BE IN GOOD SHAPE. UPDATED                  
PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN SENT.                                                        
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 400 AM CDT MON OCT 1 2007/                          
SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...MID-LEVEL                                  
RIDGING/SYNOPTIC-SCALE SUBSIDENCE TAKES A FIRMER STANCE AS THE                  
TROPOSPHERIC COLUMN GRADUALLY DRIES(WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SUPPORTS                
NAM/UKMET) THROUGH TUESDAY. UNFAVORABLE SOUTHERLY FLOW AT 850HPA                
YESTERDAY BECOMES A MORE FAVORABLE SE/E FLOW TODAY WHEN PWATS ARE               
STILL FAVORABLY HIGH. HOWEVER...FEEL GUIDANCE POPS ARE TOO HIGH                 
GIVEN GENERALLY WEAK FORCING...SO WILL INDICATE 20-30% POPS. NO                 
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TONIGHT/TUESDAY. MOIST GROUND/STABLE                  
BOUNDARY LAYER SUPPORTS AREAS OF FOG ACROSS THE INTERIOR DURING THE             
OVERNIGHT/EARLY MORNING HOURS. LITTLE TO NO CHANGES TO THE PREVIOUS             
TEMPERATURE GRIDS.                                                              
AVIATION...MVFR VSBYS/CIGS WITH AREAS OF LIFR VSBYS/CIGS ARE                    
EXPECTED ACROSS THE INTERIOR UNTIL 14Z. OTHERWISE...SCT-BKN VFR CIGS            
WILL PREVAIL THROUGH 02Z. VFR CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED FROM                 
02Z-09Z. MVFR VSBYS/CIGS WITH AREAS OF LIFR VSBYS/CIGS WILL THEN                
RETURN ACROSS THE INTERIOR BETWEEN 09Z-12Z.                                     
MARINE...WINDS TO REMAIN BELOW HEADLINE CRITERIA WITH ONLY ISOLATED             
CONVECTION EXPECTED THIS MORNING.                                               
LONG TERM (TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)...BENIGN WEATHER PATTERN               
WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EARLY PART OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD AS THE                
MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS AND DRY AIR WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION              
THRU THURSDAY. BUT THE GFS/UKMET/ECMWF SHOW THE TUTT LOW NEAR THE               
FLORIDA KEYS EARLY THIS MORNING WILL MIGRATE WESTWARD ACROSS THE                
GULF OF MEXICO TO THE SOUTH OF THE RIDGE AXIS. IT APPEARS THAT SOME             
TYPE OF HYBRID TROPICAL/SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM COULD DEVELOP OVER THE               
CENTRAL GULF BY WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY. PREFER TO LEAN TOWARD THE                   
MORE CONSISTENT 00Z ECMWF SOLUTION AT THIS POINT WHICH THE 12Z                  
UKMET WAS NOT TOO FAR OFF IN AGREEMENT WITH MOVING THIS UPPER LOW               
INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE TEXAS COAST BY FRIDAY. THE ECMWF SHOWS                 
THE UPPER LEVEL SHEAR OVER THIS SYSTEM WEAKENING...SO SOME                      
DEVELOPMENT OF A WEAK TROPICAL SYSTEM COULD BE POSSIBLE BY THE END              
OF THE WEEK. WILL RAISE POPS TO 30/40 PERCENT FRIDAY THROUGH                    
SATURDAY. STILL A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS SYSTEM AS THE GFS                
WEAKENS IT BY FRIDAY WHILE THE NAM/CANADIAN MODELS SPIN IT UP INTO              
THE NORTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO THURSDAY. THESE SEEM TO OUTLIERS                
AT THIS POINT. THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW A STRONG UPPER TROUGH MOVING              
INTO THE ROCKIES BY FRIDAY THAT WILL HOPEFULLY USHER IN MORE FALL               
LIKE CONDITIONS OVER SOUTH TEXAS BY THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.                 
THE GFS IS A BIT FASTER MOVING THE UPPER TROUGH INTO THE PLAINS                 
THAN THE ECMWF AND THEREBY PUSHES A COLD FRONT INTO SOUTH TEXAS BY              
SUNDAY MORNING. WILL LEAN TOWARD THE SLOWER ECMWF FOR NOW WITH THE              
FRONT MOVING INTO THE AREA SUNDAY EVENING. MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY             
WILL BE SUFFICIENT IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT TO EXPECT A DECENT                   
CHANCE OF RAIN OVER SOUTH TEXAS ON SUNDAY.                                      
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
CORPUS CHRISTI    90  72  91  69  91  /  30  10  10  10  10                     
VICTORIA          90  68  91  67  91  /  40  10  10  10  10                     
LAREDO            96  74  97  74  97  /  40  10  10  10  10                     
ALICE             92  70  93  68  94  /  40  10  10  10  10                     
ROCKPORT          90  74  91  73  90  /  20  10  10  10  10                     
COTULLA           92  71  93  70  94  /  40  10  10  10  10                     
KINGSVILLE        91  71  92  68  92  /  30  10  10  10  10                     
NAVY CORPUS       89  76  90  74  89  /  30  10  10  10  10                     
&&                                                                              
.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
TX...NONE.                                                                      
GM...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
TM/95...UPDATE                                                                  
</pre> tx                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL                                         
300 PM EDT MON OCT 01 2007                                                      
.SYNOPSIS...18Z WATER VAPOR AND H4 RUC ANALYSIS STILL SHOWING A VERY            
ACTIVE NORTHERN STREAM WITH A SHARP TROUGH ASHORE ACROSS THE PACIFIC            
NORTHWEST FROM BRITISH COLUMBIA TO NORTHERN CALIFORNIA...RIDGING                
FURTHER DOWNSTREAM ACROSS THE PLAINS...ANOTHER POTENT SHORTWAVE                 
CLOSING OFF ACROSS THE GREAT LAKE STATES AND ANOTHER RIDGE UP THE               
EAST COAST TO NEW ENGLAND. CLOSER TO HOME WATCHING AN UPPER LOW                 
MOVING WEST OUT OF THE FLORIDA STRAITS. THIS SYSTEM IS HAVING LITTLE            
IMPACT ON OUR FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON.                                     
AT THE SURFACE...TIGHT GRADIENT CONTINUES OVER THE REGION BETWEEN               
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH AND A SURFACE TROUGH NEAR THE                 
SOUTHERN FL PENINSULA. ATLANTIC MOISTURE CONTINUES TO ADVECT ASHORE             
ALONG THE EAST COAST OF THE PENINSULA. REGIONAL RADAR SHOWING                   
SCT SHOWERS/SPRINKLES MOVING ASHORE FROM JACKSONVILLE SOUTHWARD TO              
DAYTONA BEACH AND MELBOURNE. RADAR HAS SHOWN A SLOW DECREASE IN THE             
SHOWER COVERAGE INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON AND REALLY DO NOT EXPECT               
ANYTHING MORE THAN A SPRINKLE OR TWO INTO THE SOUTHEAST BIG BEND FOR            
THE REST OF THE DAY. DEBATED DROPPING THE SLIGHT CHANCE POP OVER                
THIS AREA...HOWEVER SINCE THE WX GRIDS ARE ONLY CARRYING                        
SPRINKLES...WILL LEAVE MENTION IN DESPITE THE VERY MINIMAL IMPACT.              
CLOUDS HAVE BEEN FAIRLY STUBBORN SOUTH AND EAST OF A KTLH TO KVLD               
LINE...WITH MOSTLY SUNNY TO SUNNY SKIES FURTHER NORTH AND WEST.                 
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)...                                
MAIN ISSUE WITH THE SHORT TERM FORECAST WILL BE THE EVOLUTION OF THE            
UPPER LOW EXITING THE FLORIDA STRAITS INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF             
MEXICO AND SOME POSSIBLE SURFACE LOW DEVELOPMENT ASSOCIATED WITH IT.            
ALL GUIDANCE MODELS ARE SHOWING THE CLOSED UPPER LOW EJECTING INTO              
THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO OVERNIGHT TONIGHT WITH AN UPPER TROUGH               
CONTINUING TO THE NORTHEAST OVER THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN FLORIDA               
PENINSULA. BETTER MID/UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE WILL APPROACH THE                    
FORECAST AREA FROM THE SOUTHEAST DURING THE NIGHT BUT APPEARS THAT              
THE PROGRESS WILL BE SLOW ENOUGH TO KEEP MOST OF THE AREA DRY INTO              
TUESDAY MORNING. ONLY EXCEPTION WILL BE THE FAR SOUTHEAST BIG BEND              
WHERE A CONTINUATION OF A FEW SPRINKLES/SHOWERS FROM THE NORTHEAST              
WILL BE POSSIBLE. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL BE COOLEST TO THE               
NORTH AND WEST WHERE UPPER 50S TO NEAR 60 WILL BE COMMON UNDER THE              
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. LOW WILL REMAIN IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 60S FOR             
THE SOUTHEAST THIRD OF THE AREA WHERE BETTER ATLANTIC MOISTURE AND              
MORE CLOUD COVER WILL BE PRESENT.                                               
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP UNDER THE UPPER LOW OFF             
THE SOUTHWEST FLORIDA COAST BY SUNRISE TUESDAY...BUT GUIDANCE IS NOT            
IN AGREEMENT AS TO DEGREE OF STRENGTHENING. GFS/ECMWF CONTINUE TO BE            
VERY CLOSE WITH THE NAM BEING THE STRONGER OUTLIER SOLUTION. THE                
NAM HAS A HISTORY OF OVER-DEVELOPING THESE SYSTEM AND SO DECIDED TO             
USE A SIMILAR FORECAST PHILOSOPHY AS LAST NIGHTS SHIFT AND GO WITH A            
GFS/ECMWF BLEND. THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS WATCHING THIS LOW             
FOR SOME POSSIBLE SUB-TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL                
DAYS...HOWEVER LOOKING AT THE LARGE AMOUNT OF DRY AIR NOW COVERING              
THE GOMEX IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVELS...IT WILL TAKE QUITE SOME              
TIME TO GET A SUBSTANTIAL SYSTEM GOING...IF AT ALL. WITH ALL THIS IN            
MIND...WILL ADVANCE THE POPS A BIT FURTHER TO THE NORTHWEST DURING              
TUESDAY WITH SLIGHT CHANCE GENERALLY SOUTH AND EAST OF A LINE FROM              
KPFN TO KTLH TO KVLD...AND BRING CHANCE 30-40 POPS UP INTO THE                  
SOUTHEASTERN BIG BEND. BRINGING SLIGHT CHANCE POPS THIS FAR                     
NORTH...MAY EVEN BE A BIT OPTIMISTIC FOR RAIN AS BEST DEEP LAYER                
(700-300MB Q-VECTOR FORCING REMAINS JUST TO OUR SOUTH). HIGH TEMPS              
GENERALLY IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 80S ONCE AGAIN. KEPT THINGS A FEW             
DEGREES COOLER FOR TAYLOR...DIXIE AND LAFAYETTE COUNTIES WITH LOWER             
TO MIDDLE 80S UNDER MORE PERSISTENT CLOUD-COVER AND BETTER SHOWER               
CHANCES.                                                                        
AS THE SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL LOW PROGRESS WESTWARD ACROSS THE                 
NORTH-CENTRAL GOMEX THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM...WILL              
KEEP A GENERAL LOW END CHANCE POP ACROSS THE AREA WITH THE BEST                 
DYNAMICS AND MOISTURE FOR SHOWERS ACROSS COASTAL AREAS. TIMING OF               
THE BEST RAIN CHANCES DURING THIS PERIOD IS NOT OF THE HIGHEST                  
CONFIDENCE. MUCH WILL DEPEND ON JUST HOW MUCH SPIN-UP WE SEE OF THE             
SURFACE LOW AND ALSO ANY SMALLER SCALE IMPULSES ROTATING AROUND THE             
UPPER LOW. BASICALLY A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM WILL BE POSSIBLE AT               
ANY TIME...ALTHOUGH A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF QPF IN ANY ONE PLACE               
LOOKS UNLIKELY AND A WASHOUT DURING THE MID WEEK PERIOD IS NOT                  
EXPECTED. DIURNAL TEMPERATURES WILL BE HELD IN CHECK WITH MORE                  
ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER. GENERALLY LOOKING FOR MIDDLE 80S DURING THE               
DAY AND MIDDLE 60S TO LOWER 70S AT NIGHT.                                       
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM (THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY)...                                         
THE 01/00Z EURO COMING IN NOW IS IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT WITH THE                
01/00Z GFS ON TAKING THE GULF LOW INTO THE WESTERN GULF TOWARD                  
SOUTHERN TEXAS OR NORTHERN MEXICO. HOWEVER...PLENTY OF DEEP LAYER               
MOISTURE STAYS OVER OUR REGION IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM ALLOWING              
FOR CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE FIRST PART OF THE             
WEEKEND. THE GFS IS BRINGING A FRONTAL SYSTEM INTO THE REGION LATE              
IN THE WEEKEND...HOWEVER THE 30/12Z EURO WAS MUCH SLOWER WITH THIS              
SYSTEM AND DIDN`T BRING THE COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION UNTIL NEXT            
WEEK. THE 01/00Z EURO IS ABOUT 12 TO 18 HOURS BEHIND THE GFS WITH               
THIS FRONT AND BRINGS IT THROUGH ON MONDAY. IT WOULDN`T ENTIRELY                
SURPRISE ME TO END UP SEEING A BLEND OF THE MORE PROGRESSIVE GFS AND            
SLOWER EURO PAN OUT. WILL SLOW THE FRONTAL PROGRESSION THROUGH THE              
CWA ABOUT 12 HOURS...WHICH IS TYPICALLY WHAT WE`VE SEEN WHEN                    
FORECASTING LONG RANGE FRONTAL PASSAGES THIS TIME OF YEAR. GENERALLY            
ACCEPTED THE MEX GUIDANCE TEMPS AND POPS...BUT DID ADJUST TEMPS DOWN            
A DEGREE OR TWO BASED ON EXPECTED CLOUD COVER EARLY IN THE LONG TERM            
FORECAST.                                                                       
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
VFR CONDITIONS WITH CLOUDS MOVING SW OFF THE ATLANTIC YIELDING OCNL             
CIGS 7-8K WITH OCCASIONAL CIGS DOWN TO 4K FT WITH DRIZZLE OR                    
SPRINKLES AT KVLD AND POSSIBLY AT KTLH. SUSTAINED NE WINDS TO 15 MPH            
WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 MPH WILL CONTINUE INTO SUNSET...THEN 5-10 MPH.              
VFR CONDS LOOK GOOD INTO TUES MORNING WITH MARGINAL MVFR CIGS                   
POSSIBLE MNLY AT KVLD 08Z-13Z. THEN TUES DAYLIGHT CONDS WILL BE                 
SIMILAR TO THIS AFTERNOON REGARDING CIGS AND WINDS.                             
&&                                                                              
.MARINE...                                                                      
TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR NORTH AND A                
SURFACE TROUGH TO THE SOUTH WILL KEEP ELEVATED NORTHEAST FLOW GOING             
ACROSS ALL MARINE LEGS INTO TUESDAY MORNING. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES             
WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE NEAR SHORE LEGS THROUGH TUESDAY                   
MORNING AND ACROSS THE OFFSHORE LEGS THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON. WILL            
BE WATCHING LOW PRESSURE MOVE TO THE SOUTH AND WEST OF THE FORECAST             
WATERS TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH THE PRESSURE GRADIENT               
RELAXING AND WINDS AND SEAS DROPPING BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS. FLOW ON             
THE EASTERN SIDE OF THIS LOW INTO THE LATER PART OF THE WORKWEEK                
WILL BE GENERALLY FROM THE SOUTHEAST AND UNDER CAUTIONARY LEVELS.               
&&                                                                              
.FIRE WEATHER...                                                                
LOOKS LIKE RH VALUES ARE GOING TO GET DOWN TO 35 PERCENT FOR AN HOUR            
OR TWO ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE LATE THIS               
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. WITH THE GUSTY NORTHWEST WIND AND HIGH             
DISPERSION INDICES...WE ONLY NEED ONE HOUR TO VERIFY A WARNING AND              
SO WILL ISSUE A SHORT FUSE RED FLAG WARNING FOR WALTON...JACKSON...             
HOLMES...WASHINGTON...AND CALHOUN COUNTIES UNTIL 600 PM CDT.                    
INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL THEN KEEP CONDITIONS WELL ABOVE              
CRITICAL LEVELS FOR ALL AREAS THROUGH THE MIDDLE PART OF THE WEEK.              
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
TALLAHASSEE  64  87  70  86  72 /   0  15  40  40  30                           
PANAMA CITY  66  88  72  87  74 /   0  15  40  40  30                           
DOTHAN       58  87  66  85  68 /   0  05  25  30  20                           
ALBANY       60  87  66  86  69 /   0  05  25  30  20                           
VALDOSTA     64  84  69  87  70 /   0  20  30  40  20                           
CROSS CITY   69  83  69  88  71 /  15  40  40  40  30                           
&&                                                                              
.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
AL...NONE.                                                                      
GA...NONE.                                                                      
FL...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 23Z THIS EVENING FOR                      
WALTON...JACKSON...HOLMES...WASHINGTON...AND CALHOUN COUNTIES.                  
GMZ750/755/730...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 15Z TUESDAY MORNING.                
GMZ770/775...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 21Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON.                  
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
PUBLIC/MARINE...MROCZKA                                                         
LONG TERM...GODSEY                                                              
AVIATION/FIRE WEATHER...BLOCK/MROCZKA                                           
</pre> fl                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS                                          
321 PM CDT MON OCT 1 2007                                                       
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
DAYS 1-2...                                                                     
DISC WILL CENTER PRIMARILY ON THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE/INTENSITY                   
TONIGHT AND WHERE MOST OF THE RAIN WILL LIKELY FALL.                            
WV LOOP THIS AFTERNOON SHOWED A HEALTHY PLUME OF MID LEVEL MOISTURE             
FROM DECAYING TROPICAL SYSTEM "JULIETTE" OFF THE COAST OF                       
BAJA...NORTHWARD THROUGH ARIZONA AND NEW MEXICO.  THIS PLUME OF                 
MOISTURE WAS ON THE NORTHWEST PERIPHERY OF STRONG MID-UPPER HIGH                
CENTERED OVER NORTHERN OLD MEXICO.  A SUBTROPICAL JET STREAK                    
STRETCHED FROM FAR SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA THROUGH SOUTHERN UTAH INTO               
WESTERN COLORADO.  A POLAR JET STREAK WAS ROTATING AROUND THE                   
EASTERN SIDE OF A TROUGH JUST NORTH OF THE SUBTROPICAL JET STREAK.              
AS THE AFTERNOON HAS GONE ON...RUC ANALYSIS AND WV LOOP SHOWED THESE            
TWO JETS MERGING.  NAM, GFS, AND RUC MODELS SHOW AN INCREASING                  
REGION OF SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT WITHIN THE RIGHT-ENTRANCE OF THE                  
SUBTROPICAL JET AS IT LIFTS INTO THE HIGH PLAINS.  THE OLD SURFACE              
POLAR FRONT THAT PUSHED THROUGH YESTERDAY HAD STALLED OUT ALONG THE             
RED RIVER VALLEY...WITH THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE OLD WASHED OUT FRONT            
LIFTING BACK NORTH...SEEN PRIMARILY BY THE DEWPOINT GRADIENT IN THE             
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.                                                           
UPPER 50S TO NEAR 60 DEWPOINTS OVER WEST TEXAS WILL CONTINUE TO                 
SPREAD NORTH THIS EVENING.  GFS AND NAM 900-800MB DEWPOINTS OF                  
13-16C WILL EXIST ALONG AN AXIS CENTERED OVER THE PANHANDLES AND                
SOUTHWEST KANSAS AS THE NIGHT WEARS ON.  WITH THE INCREASED LIFT DUE            
TO THE UPPER JET STREAK DYNAMICS...PLUS 40-50 KNOT LOW LEVEL                    
JET...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO                       
RESULT...DEVELOPING FIRST OVER NORTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO IN THE 03-06Z            
TIME FRAME...THEN SPREADING AND DEVELOPING NORTHEASTWARD TO                     
ENCOMPASS THE SOUTHERN DDC CWA AFTER 06Z.  WILL GO WITH 60 POPS FOR             
MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN-CENTRAL DDC CWA IN THE 08-12Z TIME FRAME...WITH            
60 POPS OVER THE EASTERN ZONES IN THE 12-15Z TIME FRAME.  A LOOK AT             
THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES IN NAM/GFS FORECAST SOUNDINGS REVEALS A                  
FAIRLY MOIST PROFILE WITHOUT A TREMENDOUS AMOUNT OF CAPE...HOWEVER              
600-1000 J/KG SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO PROMPT A FEW SMALL HAIL REPORTS.              
THE LOW LEVEL BOUNDARY WILL BE OVER THE FAR EASTERN DDC CWA BY                  
MIDDAY TUESDAY WITH REDEVELOPMENT OF THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED OVER                
SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS...MAINLY EAST OF DDC CWA.  A RAPID CLEARING IS             
EXPECTED OVER THE REMAINDER OF SOUTHWEST KANSAS BY MIDDAY AS                    
SYNOPTIC SUBSIDENCE REIGNS.  BEHIND THE FRONT...HIGHS WILL BE IN THE            
MID-UPPER 70S WITH LOTS OF SUN BY AFTERNOON.  TUESDAY                           
NIGHT...SURFACE HIGH CENTER WILL BE OVER WESTERN KANSAS WITH                    
EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS ALLOWING LOWS TO BOTTOM OUT            
IN THE MID-UPPER 40S.  WEDNESDAY...MORE SUN AND WARMER WITH                     
SUBSIDENCE PREVAILING AND A RETURN FLOW OF SOUTH WINDS BY                       
AFTERNOON.  HIGHS WILL REACH THE LOWER 80S PRETTY MUCH EVERYWHERE IN            
DDC CWA. -UMSCHEID                                                              
DAYS 3-7...                                                                     
THE MAIN TROUBLE SPOT IN THE EXTENDED IS POPS FOR THE LATE WEDNESDAY            
INTO THURSDAY PERIODS.  A SIGNIFICANT SHORT WAVE IS EVIDENT IN THE              
ECMWF...THE GFS AND THE NAM...EACH WITH A LITTLE DIFFERENT SPEED AND            
LOCATION.  THE GFS REMAINS THE QUICKEST WITH THIS UPPER                         
SYSTEM...KEEPING THE WAVE NORTH OF OUR AREA AND CARRYING IT THROUGH             
THE BROAD WAVE...NEAR ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS.  WITH              
THAT TRACK...THE GFS DOES NOW PRODUCE ANY MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION              
FOR OUR SOUTHWEST KANSAS CWA.  HOWEVER...BOTH THE NAM AND THE ECMWF             
PULL AN UPPER TROUGH THROUGH KANSAS INTO MISSOURI/OKLAHOMA RATHER               
QUICKLY TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...LEAVING THE LEE SIDE OF THE ROCKIES            
WIDE OPEN FOR LEE SIDE TROUGH DEVELOPMENT.  THIS FEATURE CROSSES                
SOUTHWEST KANSAS LATE WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY THURSDAY.  THUS...HAVE               
LEFT THE 20 POPS FOR WEDNESDAY GOING...INCREASING MY EASTERN ZONES              
TO NEAR 30 POPS FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT.                                            
AFTER THIS ABOVE MENTIONED UPPER WAVE PASSES...YET ANOTHER WAVE IS              
INDICATED BY THE EC AND ALSO THE GFS TO SWOOP DOWN FROM OUR                     
NORTHWEST AND CROSS CENTRAL KANSAS.  AM NOT AS CONFIDENT WITH THIS              
TRACK AS IT SEEMS TOO SOON TO GET A WAVE FROM THE NORTHWEST.  DID               
HOWEVER LEAVE THE LOW TEEN POPS GOING FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND                
NIGHT...WHICH CAN BE ADJUSTED UPWARD OR DOWNWARD AS THAT TIME                   
APPROACHES THE NEARER TERM AND FUTURE MODEL RUNS CONFIRM THE UPPER              
LOW TRACK.                                                                      
FOR TEMPERATURES...STAYED FAIRLY CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.                
DID LOW MAX TEMPS A DEGREE OR TWO ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...TO COME              
IN LINE WITH SURROUNDING ISC GRIDS BETTER.  FRIDAY SHOULD BE THE                
WARMEST DAY WITH THE DEEP SOUTHWEST FLOW ADVECTING IN WARM LOW LEVEL            
AIR.  MIN TEMPS WERE TAPERED DOWN FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...EXPECTING A             
FROPA ON THURSDAY NIGHT.                                                        
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
AS FOR AVIATION CONCERNS...BREEZY SOUTH WINDS IN THE 18G26KT RANGE              
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH 01-02Z THIS EVENING...THEN BACK OFF TO                    
SOUTH-SOUTHEASTERLY AT 15KT OR LESS.  VFR MID AND HIGH SCATTERED                
CLOUDS WILL BEGIN INCREASING FROM THE NORTHWEST AFTER                           
MIDNIGHT...WITH MVFR CIGS EXPECTED AFTER 09Z OR SO.  BKN-OVC015 WILL            
BE COMMON AFTER 09Z...WITH SCATTERED RW/TRW DEVELOPING AT HYS AFTER             
08Z...GCK AFTER 10Z AND DDC AFTER 12Z.                                          
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
DDC  64  77  49  82 /  60  70   0   0                                           
GCK  61  77  47  83 /  50  30   0   0                                           
EHA  58  79  51  83 /  50  30   0   0                                           
LBL  64  79  50  84 /  60  40   0   0                                           
HYS  66  74  47  81 /  50  60   0   0                                           
P28  68  78  53  80 /  50  70  10   0                                           
&&                                                                              
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
NONE.                                                                           
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
FN25/12/12                                                                      
</pre> ks                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN                              
325 PM CDT MON OCT 1 2007                                                       
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH NOW OFF TO THE EAST CROSSING LAKE MICHIGAN THIS              
AFTERNOON. LULL IN THE SFC FLOW OVERHEAD WITH MODERATE SOUTHERLY                
WINDS SETTING UP ACROSS THE DAKOTAS. LOW CLOUD COVER CONTINUES TO               
WORK SLOWLY EASTWARD AND SHOULD MOVE EAST OF THE TWIN CITIES METRO              
AND POINTS DUE NORTH AND SOUTH OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...WITH                   
COVERAGE REMAINING OVER MUCH OF THE WISCONSIN CWA. SOME PATCHY FOG              
MAY DEVELOP UNDER AXIS OF WEAK SFC FLOW OVER THE WISCONSIN COUNTIES             
TONIGHT BEFORE WINDS BECOME SOUTHERLY AND INCREASE.                             
FAST MOVING UPPER TROUGH CROSSING INTO THE WESTERN ROCKIES THIS                 
AFTERNOON WILL SPEED EASTWARD BRINGING SFC LOW PRESSURE CURRENTLY               
OVER WESTERN SASKATCHEWAN AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WITH IT. FRONT              
ENTERS WESTERN MINNESOTA AROUND 12Z TUESDAY WITH UPPER WAVE CLOSE ON            
ITS HEELS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AHEAD              
OF THE FRONT DURING THE MORNING AND RAPIDLY MOVE EASTWARD. ONE                  
LIMITING FACTOR...ESPECIALLY DURING THE MORNING HOURS...WILL BE                 
SPEED OF MOISTURE RETURN AHEAD OF THE FRONT. ACTIVITY MAY BE                    
SOMEWHAT LIMITED DURING THE MORNING BUT IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE BY              
MIDDAY...OR ACROSS EAST CENTRAL MINNESOTA AND WEST CENTRAL                      
WISCONSIN. INSTABILITY WILL BE LIMITED BUT LAPSE RATES WILL BE STEEP            
SO WILL NEED TO WATCH FOR MINIMAL HAIL THREAT WITH STRONGER                     
UPDRAFTS. STORMS WILL MOVE SWIFTLY EASTWARD BUT DEEPENING MOISTURE              
WILL ALLOW FOR HEAVY DOWNPOURS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS FAR EAST CENTRAL             
MN AND WEST CENTRAL WI. RIDGING QUICKLY FILLS IN BEHIND THE FRONT               
WEDNESDAY EVENING.                                                              
MUCH UNCERTAINTY EXISTS REGARDING THE FORECAST FOR THE REMAINDER OF             
THE WEEK. INDIVIDUAL MODEL SOLUTIONS CONTINUE TO CHANGE SO HAVE LOOKED          
TO TRENDS IN THEIR SOLUTIONS TO HELP DETERMINE HOW THINGS MAY PAN               
OUT. ONE THING REMAINS CONSISTENT AND THAT IS THAT MID WEEK ZONAL               
FLOW WILL BE REPLACED BY AN APPROACHING LONG WAVE TROUGH WHICH                  
INDUCES SFC CYCLOGENESIS ACROSS THE PLAINS. TRENDS OF THE LAST FEW              
RUNS OF THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE BEEN TO SLOW THE PROGRESS OF THE                 
UPPER TROUGH...WHEREAS THE TREND SEEN YESTERDAY WAS TO SPEED THINGS             
UP. MEANWHILE...THE GFS NOW WANTS TO DEVELOP THE WARM FRONT ACROSS              
CENTRAL MINNESOTA AS EARLY AS THURSDAY MORNING WITH A SURFACE WAVE              
EJECTING NORTHEAST FROM NEBRASKA FRIDAY MORNING. THIS IS A FAIRLY               
LARGE CHANGE FROM YESTERDAY. HAVE KEPT THURSDAY DRY FOR NOW WITH                
POPS INCREASING THURSDAY EVENING AND THURSDAY NIGHT. AS UPPER LOW               
APPROACHES A SECOND SFC LOW DEVELOPS AND CREATES MORE OF AN INVERTED            
TROUGH WHICH SETS UP OVER THE AREA FOR SATURDAY. UPPER LOW SLOWLY               
COMES ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY SUNDAY AND CATCHES              
UP TO SFC TROUGH HELPING IT TO CLOSE OFF AND STRENGTHEN OVER THE                
UPPER GREAT LAKES. ECMWF A BIT CONSISTENT WITH WAA PASSING OVER                 
FRIDAY WITH WARM AIR IN PLACE INTO SATURDAY WITH PRECIP ARRIVING                
DURING THE DAY SATURDAY AND LINGERING INTO SUNDAY MORNING...WITH A              
DRIER FORECAST OVERALL. SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT               
APPEAR TO BE THE BEST TIMES FOR PRECIPITATION...OR AT LEAST THAT IS             
WHERE THE GREATEST CONFIDENCE LIES. LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE SUNDAY                
PRECIP FORECAST THOUGH AM THINKING BULK OF THE DAY WILL BE DRY. GFS             
HAS BEEN WAVERING WITH THE SPEED AT WHICH THE UPPER LOW EXITS AND               
THUS HOW LONG THE PRECIP STAYS IN THE AREA. MUCH COOLER AIR WILL BE             
IN PLACE BY THEN AND HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO BE MUCH BELOW NORMAL IN              
MANY AREAS WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S. ALSO OF NOTE...GFS               
ENSEMBLE CONFIDENCE GRAPHICS INDICATE INCREASED SPREAD AMONG MEMBERS            
WITH RECENT RUNS AND THUS LOWER CONFIDENCE FOR THE WEEKEND. THE                 
UPPER LOW CUTS OFF SOMEWHERE OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES OR OHIO                 
VALLEY EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH MODEL DIFFERENCES CONTINUING.                       
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
CONCERNS FOR THE VALID TAF PERIOD REVOLVE AROUND LO STRATOCU DECK               
WITH PRIMARILY MVFR CIGS THAT HAS REMAINED OVR THE ERN 3 TAF                    
SITES...MSP/RNH/EAU...THRU THE DAY. ERN EDGE EXTENDS FROM ABOUT CBG             
TO THE WRN SIDES OF THE TWIN CITIES TO W OF AEL...AND THE EWRD                  
MOVEMENT SHUD SLOW DOWN AS DAYTIME MIXING SLOWS WITH SUNSET. LATEST             
RUC PROGS SHOW THAT THE LO CLDS COULD HANG AROUND EAU AND MAYBE RNH             
FOR AWHILE THIS EVE...ALTHO MSP SHUD BREAK OUT LATE THIS AFTN OR                
EARLY THIS EVE. WITH LO LVL MSTR AND LGT WINDS FROM THE PROXIMITY OF            
THE SFC RDG IN THE EAU VICINITY...FOG MAY BECOME AN ISSUE TOWARD                
SUNRISE. OTHERWISE...THE NEXT ISSUE BECOMES SHRA/TSRA ALNG THE                  
APPROACHING CDFNT TOMORROW.                                                     
&&                                                                              
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
MN...NONE.                                                                      
WI...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
MDB/KAT                                                                         
</pre> mn                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM                                         
300 PM MDT MON OCT 1 2007                                                       
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
FORECAST CHALLENGES IN THE SHORT TERM CONCERN PCPN CHANCES...TEMPS              
AS WELL AS LOW CLOUD/FOG DEVELOPMENT TOWARD DAYBREAK. HIGH PRESSURE             
TO THE EAST COUPLED WITH AN ADVANCING TROUGH MOVING INTO THE GREAT              
BASIN HAS ALLOW ABUNDANT MID/UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE TO ADVECT THROUGH             
THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. SFC DEWPOINTS WERE RELATIVELY LOW EARLY THIS              
MORNING...HOWEVER SLY LOW LEVEL FLOW IN COMBINATION WITH A TOP-DOWN             
EFFECT HAS ALLOWED VALUES TO CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 40S/LOW 50S ALONG             
THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE WITH 60S OVER THE ERN PLAINS. RUC40 ANALYSIS             
HAS A NOTABLY STRONG VORT MAX MOVING NE FROM THE UPPER GILA TOWARD              
THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY. ONLY A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES ARE NOTED OVER              
NM ATTM AS BEST DYNAMICS AND INSTABILITY ARE POSITIONED OVER NRN AZ             
ASSOCIATED WITH A 110KT+ UPPER LEVEL JET AS WELL AS THE ERN PLAINS              
WHERE A 345-350K THETA-E RIDGE AXIS IS LOCATED. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS             
ARE POSSIBLE FROM TRAINING EFFECTS AND FROM STRONG CONVECTION THAT              
MAY DEVELOP. DECIDED TO TWEAK POP GRIDS TOWARD THE MET GUIDANCE FOR             
THE EVENING HOURS...WHICH INCLUDE THE LIKELY CATEGORY. TROUGH AXIS              
IS PROGGED TO ENTER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION BY MIDNIGHT...WHICH MAY             
INCREASE VERTICAL ASCENT AND PROVIDE THE FINAL THREAT FOR PCPN. THE             
GFS IS FASTER WITH THE TROUGH PASSAGE...WHICH WOULD ALLOW CLEARING              
SKIES TO DEVELOP TOWARD DAYBREAK OVER THE W. A LOW LEVEL INVERSION              
CAN BE EXPECTED DUE TO RADIATIONAL COOLING IF SKIES BECOME CLEAR IN             
THE WRN VALLEYS...WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR PATCHY FOG TO DEVELOP.                   
LINGERING PCPN CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH MID-MORNING ACROSS THE CWFA              
AS TROUGH AXIS SWINGS ACROSS THE REGION. THIS SYSTEM WILL ALSO DRAG             
A SURFACE BOUNDARY THROUGH THE ERN PLAINS LATE TUESDAY MORNING THRU             
THE AFTERNOON HOURS. DRIER NW FLOW WILL DEVELOP IN THE WAKE OF THE              
TROUGH...WHICH MAY BE GUSTY AT TIMES OVER THE NW PLATEAU AS WELL AS             
THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY. MOS GUIDANCE DIFFER ON MAX TEMPS...BUT SIDED             
WITH THE COOLER MET WHICH IS MORE PLAUSIBLE FOR EARLY OCTOBER. LESS             
ACTIVE FOR WEDNESDAY...HOWEVER MOST MODELS ARE SUGGESTING THAT SOME             
LINGERING MOISTURE WILL PERSIST OVER THE SRN TIER OF NM. 850-500MB              
LAPSE RATES MAY BE SUFFICIENT ENOUGH TO ALLOW AN ISOLATED STORM TO              
DEVELOP OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN WED/THU AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. SOME             
OF THE ACTIVITY MAY BE ENHANCED WITH WEAK PERTURBATIONS WITHIN THE              
UPPER LEVEL W/SW FLOW. ANOTHER TROUGH IS ADVERTISED TO SWING ACROSS             
THE NRN ROCKIES LATE IN THE WORK WEEK. APPEARS TO BE A GLANCING HIT             
TO THE NRN ZONES...WITH BREEZY/WINDY CONDITIONS POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE.             
A SURFACE BOUNDARY SHOULD PUSH THROUGH THE ERN PLAINS ON SATURDAY...            
WHICH MAY ALLOW FOR SOME OF THE COLDEST READINGS SO FAR THIS SEASON             
ACROSS THE EAST. INHERITED TEMPS NEAR FREEZING WITHIN THE NE PLAINS             
LOOKS REASONABLE ATTM. DPORTER                                                  
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
FARMINGTON......................  46  72  41  79 /  50   5   0   0              
GALLUP..........................  39  74  35  78 /  60   5   0  10              
GRANTS..........................  40  74  38  78 /  80  10   0  10              
GLENWOOD........................  52  81  49  83 /  70  20  10  10              
CHAMA...........................  38  68  31  71 /  70  10   0   0              
LOS ALAMOS......................  44  70  39  74 /  80  10   0   0              
RED RIVER.......................  37  63  31  67 /  80  10   0   0              
TAOS............................  42  71  33  76 /  70  10   0   0              
SANTA FE........................  45  72  41  76 /  80  10   0   0              
SANTA FE AIRPORT................  46  74  43  78 /  80  10   0   0              
ESPANOLA........................  44  76  39  80 /  70  10   0   0              
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS.............  52  75  53  80 /  80  10   0   5              
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY..............  49  76  47  81 /  80  10   0   5              
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS...........  50  74  51  79 /  80  10   0   0              
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA...........  51  75  52  80 /  80  10   0   0              
SOCORRO.........................  51  79  51  83 /  80  20   0   5              
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST.........  44  71  41  75 /  80  20   0   0              
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA...............  46  74  40  77 /  80  20   0   5              
CARRIZOZO.......................  52  80  52  82 /  70  20   0   5              
RUIDOSO.........................  48  73  48  75 /  60  20   0  10              
RATON...........................  44  77  39  79 /  40   5   0   0              
LAS VEGAS.......................  46  74  42  78 /  70  10   0   0              
ROY.............................  52  78  49  79 /  60   5   0   0              
CLAYTON.........................  54  80  48  80 /  50   5   0   0              
SANTA ROSA......................  57  84  50  85 /  70  10   0   5              
TUCUMCARI.......................  59  86  52  84 /  70  10   0   0              
FORT SUMNER.....................  59  85  53  86 /  60  10   0   5              
CLOVIS..........................  58  84  57  84 /  40  10   0   0              
PORTALES........................  57  85  56  85 /  30  20   0   0              
ROSWELL.........................  61  88  59  88 /  30  10   0   0              
&&                                                                              
.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
NONE.                                                                           
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
46                                                                              
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