U.S. Department of Justice
Office of Justice Programs
Bureau of Justice Statistics

Cross-National Studies in Crime and Justice

September 2004,  NCJ 200988

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This file is text only without graphics and many of the tables.
A Zip archive of the tables in this report in spreadsheet format
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Edited by 
David P. Farrington, Patrick A. Langan, and
Michael Tonry

Contributors

Marcelo F. Aebi,  C. J. H. Bijleveld, Carlos Carcach, Lars Dolmn,
David P. Farrington, Mark J. Irving, Darrick Jolliffe, Martin 
Killias, Philippe Lamon, Patrick A. Langan, Catrien Paul R. Smit, 
David J. Smith, Michael Tonry, Brandon C. Welsh, P.-O. H. Wikstr"m 

Lawrence A. Greenfeld
Director

Report of work performed under BJS Cooperative Agreement No. 
2000-BJ-CX-0001 awarded to the Castine Research Corporation, 
P.O. Box 110, Castine, Maine 04421. Contents of this document 
do not necessarily reflect the views or policies of the Bureau 
of Justice Statistics or the U.S. Department of Justice.

The U.S. Department of Justice authorizes any person to reproduce, 
publish, translate, or otherwise use all or any parts of the 
material in this publication with the exception of those items 
indicating they are copyrighted or printed by any source other 
than the authors.

Carolyn C. Williams produced and edited the report under the 
supervision of Tom Hester. Jayne Robinson administered final
production.

An electronic version of this report may be found on the Internet 
at:

Http://www.ojp.usdoj.gov/bjs/

Contents

1. Introduction                      

David P. Farrington, Patrick A. Langan, Michael Tonry, and Darrick
Jolliffe

2. England and Wales                 

David P. Farrington and Darrick Jolliffe     

3. United States                   
 
Patrick A. Langan

4. Australia                       

Carlos Carcach

5. Canada                        

Brandon C. Welsh and Mark J. Irving
 
6. Netherlands                    

Catrien C. J. H. Bijleveld and Paul R. Smit

7. Scotland                       

David J. Smith

8. Sweden                         

P.-O. H. Wikstr"m and Lars Dolmn

9. Switzerland                    

Martin Killias, Philippe Lamon, and Marcelo F. Aebi

Introduction

In 1981 there were 88 residential burglaries per 1,000 households in
the United States, compared with 41 per 1,000 households in England
(including Wales). Why was the U.S. residential burglary rate twice 
as high as the English burglary rate? Ten years later the U.S. rate 
had decreased to 54 per 1,000 households, but the English rate had
increased to 68 per 1,000 households (Farrington, Langan, and
Wikstr"m, 1994). Why was residential burglary decreasing in the U.S.,
and why was it increasing in England?

In 1981 it was estimated that 15 in every 1,000 U.S. burglary offenders
were convicted, compared with 28 in every 1,000 English burglary
offenders. Why was the probability of conviction for burglary twice as
high in England? Ten years later the U.S. conviction rate had increased 
to 19 per 1,000 offenders, while the English rate had decreased to 10 
per 1,000 offenders (Farrington and others, 1994).  Why was the 
probability of conviction increasing in the U.S., and why was it 
decreasing in England?

It is extremely difficult to explain trends in national crime rates and 
in the probability and severity of legal punishment, and differences
between countries. There are enormous problems of comparability
over time and between countries, in laws, measurement methods,
recording practices, and macrosocial cultural and political factors.
However, the first step in moving towards explanations is to obtain
comparable information about crime and punishment over time, and
the main aim of this report is to present such comparable information
for six serious crimes in eight countries between 1981 and 1999.
While there have been many previous attempts to collect and present
cross-national data on crime and punishment, we believe that our
authors have made the most comprehensive and sophisticated efforts
so far to present comparable data.

Method

The six serious crimes that are studied are:
1. Residential burglary

2. Vehicle theft

3. Robbery

4. Serious assault

5. Rape

6. Homicide.

The eight countries are:
1. England (and Wales)

2. United States

3. Australia 

4. Canada 

5. Netherlands

6. Scotland

7. Sweden

8. Switzerland

The information about crime and justice covers (for each type of
crime):
1. Number of crimes committed (according to a national victimization
survey)

2. Number of crimes reported to the police (according to a national
victimization survey)

3. Number of crimes recorded by the police 

4. Average number of offenders committing each crime

5. Number of persons convicted

6. Number of persons sentenced to custody

7. Average sentence length

8. Average time served

These quantities are compared with the population in each country, and 
linking probabilities are estimated (such as, the probability of an
offender being convicted, the probability of a convicted person being
sentenced to custody). Each author has written a chapter following
the same template.

It is essential to know the average number of offenders committing
each crime in order to relate crimes committed to persons convicted.
For example, if three persons jointly commit one crime, this can lead
to three persons being convicted. Therefore, in calculating the
probability of an offender being convicted, it is important to divide 
the number of persons convicted (in this example, three) by the number
of offenders (that is, the number of offender-crime pairs, which in this
example is three), not by the number of crimes (in this example, one).

Because of problems of comparability, we have not attempted to collect 
data on all possible stages of the criminal justice system or on
all possible sentences. For example, while U.S. national data on
arrests have been published annually for many years (such as FBI,
2002), national arrest data were not collected in England until 
1999.     We focused on convictions and custody because the problems of 
comparability were least daunting in these cases.

The information in this report represents basic data that any theory 
of crime or criminal justice should be able to explain. For six serious
crimes in eight countries between 1981 and 1999, the following key
questions are addressed:
1. How is the crime rate changing over time?

2. Is the probability of a victim reporting a crime to the police
increasing or decreasing over time?

3. Is the probability of the police recording a crime that is reported 
to them increasing or decreasing over time?

4. How is the conviction rate changing over time? 

5. Is the probability of an offender being convicted increasing or
decreasing over time? 

6. Is the probability of a convicted offender being sentenced to custody
increasing or decreasing over time?

7. How is the average sentence length changing over time?

8. How is the average time served changing over time?

9. Is the average time served per offender increasing or decreasing
over time?

The average time served per offender is a summary measure of punitiveness,
obtained by combining the probability of an offender being convicted, 
the probability of an offender being sentenced to custody following a 
conviction, and the average time served per custodial sentence.

This report aims to document changes in these quantities over time in
each country. The challenge to criminologists is to explain why there
are changes over time and why there are differences between countries 
both in the absolute values of these quantities and in trends over time.

The eight countries were chosen because they had repeated large-scale 
national victim surveys, together with adequate criminal justice data, 
between 1981 and 1999. It was decided that the sample size in the
International Crime Victims Survey (ICVS: van Kesteren, Mayhew, and
Nieubeerta, 2000) of about 2,000 per country was insufficient for our 
purposes (especially for estimating linking probabilities for particular
crimes). Three other countries were considered for inclusion in our 
analyses, namely Germany, Italy and Finland. However, analyses for 
Germany were enormously complicated by its reunification in the middle 
of the Study time period, the victim survey data for Italy proved to be
inadequate, and we did not succeed in recruiting a collaborator in 
Finland who was able and willing to carry out the necessary analyses.

Previous research

This chapter is a continuation of previous work, which began with
David Farrington's presidential address to the British Society of
Criminology in January 1990, attempting to link national-level data in
England (including Wales), to estimate crime-specific numbers flowing
through the criminal justice system at each stage, from crimes
committed to crimes reported to the police, crimes recorded by the
police, offenders convicted, offenders sentenced to custody, average
sentence length, and average time served, in 2 years (1981 and
1987). The first year that it was possible to make these estimates in
England was 1981, which was the first year of the national victim
survey -- the British Crime Survey or BCS. 

Ideally, a longitudinal study is needed, beginning with offenses and
tracking offenders through the different stages of the criminal justice
system, using a unique identification number for each offender at each
stage. Unfortunately, national-level data tracking individual offenders
across the different stages of the criminal justice system are not
available in England or in most other countries. However, aggregate
national data are available for each of the stages separately (such as
crimes committed, persons convicted, persons sentenced to custody).
These separate counts do not arise from tracking the same individuals
across stages, but they permit reasonably accurate estimates of the
flow of offenders from one stage to the next. 

David Farrington and Patrick Langan compared trends over time in
England and the United States. The first publication (Farrington and
Langan, 1992) estimated numbers flowing through the criminal justice
system in both England and the United States and compared trends
over time (between 1981 and 1987 in England, between 1981 and
1986 in the United States). David Farrington and Per-Olof Wikstr"m
then compared trends over time in England and Sweden. The second
publication (Farrington and Wikstr"m, 1993) estimated numbers
flowing through the criminal justice system in England and Sweden
and compared trends between 1981 and 1987. All three countries
were then compared in a third publication (Farrington and others,
1994), which extended the previous analyses to between 1981 and
1991 for England and Sweden and between 1981 and 1990 for the
United States.
    
One problem with the first three analyses is that they reported changes
between two widely separated time points rather than trends over time,
making it difficult to know precisely when changes occurred and how
they might be explained. The fourth publication (Langan and
Farrington, 1998) calculated all numbers and probabilities for 7 years
in the United States (1981, 1983, 1986, 1988, 1990, 1992 and 1994)
and for 6 years in England (1981, 1983, 1987, 1991, 1993 and 1995).
The American years were those in which the NJRP (National Judicial
Reporting Program) survey was carried out (1986, 1988, 1990, 1992
and 1994), which yielded the number of adults convicted and
sentenced to custody, plus 1981 and 1983, when estimates of these
quantities were derived. The English years were those in which the
BCS was carried out, which estimated the number of crimes committed 
and the number reported to the police. All of the needed information 
was not available for other years.

The fourth publication aimed to present key results in a more user-
friendly way, using graphics rather than tables. Also, the estimation 
methods used in the fourth publication were greatly simplified compared 
with the first three publications. This report is modeled on the fourth
publication and aims to extend all the analyses for eight countries to 
study time trends between 1981 and 1999.

The template for each chapter

Each author was asked to follow the same organization and address
the same topics in each chapter: 
1. Provide a brief description of the country and its criminal
justice system, including an impressionistic account of developments
in criminal and penal policy and other relevant changes in the society
between 1981 and 1999.

2. Provide brief definitions of the six crimes. Residential burglary
includes attempts. Vehicle theft (including taking and driving away)
includes thefts of mopeds and motorcycles; generally, attempts are
excluded from victim surveys but included in police figures. Robbery
includes attempts. Only serious assault is counted; generally, attempts
are excluded from victim surveys but included in police figures. Rape
(of females by males) is measured only in police data; attempts are
included. Where figures are given only for serious sex assault, an
estimate is made for rape. Homicide includes murder, manslaughter
and infanticide; attempts are excluded. As far as possible, one victim
equals one crime; where figures are given for incidents rather than
victims (for example of robbery), the number of victims is estimated.
Authors were asked to discuss changes over time (since 1980) in laws
that affected the six offenses, and to specify adjustments made to
maximize comparability over time. Also, they were asked to specify
changes in the quality of crimes over time (such as the percentage of
robberies involving firearms) where possible.

3. Specify sources of data. Authors were asked to specify the sources 
of all numbers so that the data could (in principle) be replicated in 
the future.

4. Describe victim survey data. Authors were asked to describe the
victim surveys briefly, including design, sample sizes, response rates,
sampling frame and coverage, method (that is face-to-face versus
telephone?) and measures to combat telescoping. Specialized victim
surveys were distinguished from omnibus social surveys including
victimization questions. Authors were asked to provide raw data
(numbers) plus confidence intervals where possible. Residential
burglary and vehicle theft rates were specified per household, and
robbery and serious assault rates were specified per population
covered in the survey (for example all those age 16 or older). Victim
survey data on rape (and, of course, homicide) were not presented.
Differences over time (since 1980) in data collection procedures that
affect the four victim survey crimes were specified, as well as
adjustments that were made to maximize comparability over time.

5. Describe police data. Authors were asked to define police-recorded 
crimes, and to specify the precise step in processing that the crime 
was classified (such as when it is first reported?).  Changes over 
time (since 1980) in police recording procedures that affected the 
six crimes were specified, as well as adjustments that were made to 
maximize comparability over time. Authors were asked to provide raw 
data (numbers) for each year and rates per population at risk.

6. Estimate the probability of police recording a reported offense.
In order to estimate this, it was necessary to estimate the number of
police-recorded crimes that were comparable to victim survey crimes.
For burglary comparable police-recorded crimes are residential
burglaries. For vehicle theft comparable police-recorded crimes are
completed (not attempted) thefts of non-commercial vehicles. For
robbery comparable police-recorded crimes are non-commercial
robberies of victims over the minimum age for the victim survey. For
serious assault comparable police-recorded crimes exclude victims
under the minimum age for the victim survey. Then:
B = R/D                 (1)

Where B = Probability of the police recording a reported crime

R = Number of comparable crimes recorded by the police

D = Number of crimes reported to the police according to the victim
survey.

7. Estimate the average number of offenders per crime. Authors
were asked to obtain the best possible estimate of this quantity, from
victim surveys, police records or self-reported offending data. If
necessary subnational data or special surveys was used. Where the
estimate was robust (such as from police records), the raw data for
each year was used. Where the estimate was less robust (such as
victim survey reports from burglary victims, where known offenders
may be a small unrepresentative fraction of all cases), this quantity
was averaged over all years.

8. Specify the number of convictions (that is persons convicted).
Authors were asked to define the meaning of a "conviction", together
with the minimum ages for juvenile and adult court. Changes over time
(since 1980) that affected the six crimes were specified, as well as 
the adjustments that were made to maximize comparability over time.
Raw data (numbers) were presented each year and rates per population 
at risk (for example those over the minimum age for conviction). 
Problems created by foreigners who may be in the conviction numerator 
but not in the population denominator were discussed.

9. Estimate the number of convictions per 1,000 offenders. This
was calculated using the following equations:
N = V*O            (2)

Where N = Number of offenders who could in principle have been
convicted (based on victim survey crimes)

V = Number of victim survey crimes

O = Average offenders per crime

Where victim survey and police-recorded crimes are not comparable,
it is necessary to scale up from victim survey crimes to police-
recorded crimes:
M = N*P/R               (3)

Where M = Number of offenders who could in principle have been
convicted (based on police-recorded crimes)

P = Number of police-recorded crimes

R = Number of police-recorded crimes that are comparable to victim
survey crimes

The number of convictions per 1,000 offenders is estimated as follows:
X = C*1,000/M           (4)

Where X = Number of convictions per 1,000 offenders

C = Number of persons convicted.

Of course, X is not the number of convictions per 1,000 different
offenders, but is the number of convictions (occasions that a person
is convicted) per 1,000 times that an offender commits a crime. 

10. Specify the number of custodial sentences. Authors were asked to 
describe definitions of custody and different types of custodial
sentences available for juveniles and adults. Secure hospital orders
were included as custodial sentences, but suspended sentences were
not. Changes over time (since 1980) were specified that affected the
six crimes, as well as adjustments that were made to maximize
comparability over time. The raw number of custodial sentences each
year, and rates per population at risk, were given. The probability of
custody following a conviction was calculated each year. The
probability of custody per offender was calculated as follows:
Y = X*S                 (5)

Where Y = Number of custodial sentences per 1,000 offenders

S = Probability of custody following a conviction

11. Specify average sentence length and average time served.
Authors were asked to calculate the average sentence length and
average time served per custodial sentence, for each category of
crime in each year. The basis of the estimates were described.
Changes over time (since 1980) that affected the six crimes were
specified, as well as adjustments that were made to maximize
comparability over time. 

For life sentences for homicide, the effective sentence length was
estimated using the following equation:
L = T/F                 (6)

Where L = Effective sentence length

T = Average time served for homicide on a life sentence

F = Fraction of non-life sentences for homicide that are served in
custody.

The average time served per offender was calculated using the
following equation:
Z = Y*D/1,000           (7)

Where Z = Average time served per offender

D = Average time served per custodial sentence

Months were converted into days by multiplying by 30.44 (365.25/12).

Authors were asked to produce spreadsheets and graphs that were
comparable to those in the chapter on England. Even if national victim
survey data were available only for a limited number of years, authors
were asked to present national police, conviction and custody data for
all available years in the graphs. Linking probabilities (for example 
the number of convictions per 1,000 offenders) could only be calculated
for years where there was victim survey data available, and so only
these years were shown in spread- sheets.

12. Summarize time trends. Authors were asked to summarize
trends over time in the following key measures:

(a) crime rates (according to victim surveys and police records).

(b) probability of reporting given a crime, probability of recording 
given a reported crime.

(c) conviction rates per population, and convictions per 1,000 offenders.

(d) number of custodial sentences per population, and number of custodial
sentences per 1,000 offenders. 

(e) average sentence length, average time served, fraction of sentence 
served in custody.

(f) time served per 1,000 offenders. 

Where time trends were reasonably linear, authors were asked to calculate
correlations between key indicators (such as crime rates) and the year. 
It was considered that correlations would provide some indication of the
magnitude of time trends. Also, authors were asked to present correlations
among all survey and recorded crimes. 

13. Discuss possible explanations of time trends. In discussing
explanations of time trends, authors were asked to calculate
correlations between crime rates (survey and recorded) and key
national indicators such as demographic factors, unemployment rates,
measures of prosperity and income disparity, and criminal justice
measures such as the probability and severity of punishment, the
number of police officers and the financial costs of police, courts and
prisons (corrected for inflation);. It was realized that it would not be
possible to infer causal relationships from these correlations and that
multivariate analyses were needed. However, it was considered that the 
basic (and time-lagged) correlations would provide useful information. 
Authors were asked to discuss issues that they considered to be important 
in explaining time trends, such as crimes by foreigners and drug addicts,
and the percentage of persons with insurance. They were also asked
to specify what future research was needed to test key hypotheses
and what improvements are needed in national criminal justice data
systems.

Issues of comparability 

Our authors made Herculean efforts to comply with the template and
to achieve comparability over time. Their efforts to comply with the
template were facilitated by two meetings in Cambridge in which there
were detailed discussions about crime and criminal justice in all eight
countries, leading in some cases to changes in the original template.
(The final template is listed above.) However, as described fully in the
eight chapters, there are still problems of comparability. The most
important of these concern crime definitions, victim surveys, and time
served. There were fewer problems of comparability in regard to
police-recorded crimes, persons convicted, persons sentenced to
custody, and sentence length.

In regard to crime definitions and legal codes, there was a major
problem in distinguishing between serious and minor assaults, and
serious assaults in one country are not very comparable to serious
assaults in another. Changes over time in rates of serious assaults 
are more valid than comparisons between countries. Burglary and 
vehicle theft caused difficulties in Continental European countries
(Netherlands, Sweden, Switzerland) because they were not distinguished
explicitly from other types of theft in legal codes.  However, the 
authors were able to estimate the numbers of these crimes through 
various adjustments.

Between 1981 and 1999 the laws on rape in several countries were
changed to define a more comprehensive crime (including anal and
oral sex, including males as victims and females as offenders, and
including acts between husbands and wives). Authors made various
adjustments to estimate the number of rapes with male offenders and
female victims in an effort to make the numbers comparable over time
and between countries. During the same time period, the wording of
questions in the national victim survey in several countries was
changed in order to reveal more domestic violence, but again authors
made adjustments to make the numbers comparable over time.
Robbery and homicide were more comparable crimes.

The United States was the only country which had a large-scale
national victim survey every year. Sweden had a large-scale omnibus
survey every year containing some victimization questions, but
unfortunately it did not provide data on robbery. The Netherlands had
three different national victim surveys that permitted annual estimates,
but their results were not totally concordant. England had eight
large-scale national victim surveys between 1981 and 1999, Scotland
had five, Switzerland had five, Canada had three (plus a large-scale
city survey which permitted national estimates), and Australia had
three (but national estimates could also be derived from annual
surveys in New South Wales, which accounted for about two-thirds of
Australia's crime). Clearly, conclusions about trends and correlations
based 5 or fewer years are fragile.

The average time served was estimated in different ways in different
countries. In Switzerland it was available in a sophisticated 
correctional database. In the Netherlands offenders serve a fixed 
proportion of their sentences. In England the estimate of average time 
served was based on release cohorts of prisoners. In the United States 
the fraction of time served (based on release cohorts) was applied to
sentences given to estimate the time expected to be served. In Scotland 
and Sweden, the expected time to be served was estimated from laws and
parole regulations. In Australia the average time served was estimated
from the expected time to be served by the population of prisoners
(obtained in a prison census); unfortunately, the daily population
contains relatively more long-serving prisoners than entering or
release cohorts. In Canada it was not possible to derive a satisfactory
estimate of time served.

Our attempts to obtain comparable data in eight countries highlights
the problems and inadequacies of existing crime and criminal justice
data. To be fair, the quality of data improved between 1981 and 1999.
However, in no country was there a satisfactory measure of the
number of offenders per crime, which is essential for linking crime
data with offender data. An obvious recommendation is that, whenever
the police record a crime in any country, they should record (as far 
as is known) how many persons committed the crime. Also, whenever a
person is convicted in any country, the records should indicate how
many other persons committed each crime (and also their identities,
so that co-offenders can be linked).

Cross-national comparisons

Many cross-national comparisons can be carried out using the data
presented in the following eight chapters. As an illustration, we focus
on the property crime of burglary and on the violent crime of robbery.
We focus on burglary and robbery because (a) survey crime data are
not available for rape and homicide, (b) problems of comparability
between countries are greatest for assault, and (c) we judged motor
vehicle theft to be a less interesting property crime than burglary. 
We concentrate on 2 measures of crime (the survey crime rate and the
recorded crime rate) and on 3 measures of punishment (the number
of convictions per 1,000 offenders, the probability of custody 
following a conviction, and the average time served in custody) 
because we judged these as the most important.

Burglary
    
We show changes in the survey crime rate for all eight countries. The
survey burglary rate was consistently highest in Australia and lowest
in Switzerland (followed by Sweden). It increased in England up to
1993 and then decreased, while it decreased steadily in the United
States. There were correlations between the survey burglary rate and
the year. Correlations were positive in England (.67) and Switzerland
(.76), negative in the United States (-.97) and Canada (-.83), and low
in the other four countries. It should be borne in mind that these
correlations are based on only four years for Canada and five years for
Scotland and Switzerland.
    
Changes in the recorded burglary rate for all eight countries varied. 
This was highest in Scotland and Australia and lowest in Switzerland 
and Sweden. It increased steadily in Australia and the Netherlands 
and decreased steadily in the United States. Correlations between the 
recorded burglary rate and the year were positive for Australia (.97),
Switzerland (.87), the Netherlands (.78), and England (.48) and 
negative for the United States (-.95), Scotland (-.64), Canada (-.56), 
and Sweden (-.44).

Changes in the number of convictions per 1,000 burglary offenders is
a measure of the probability of punishment. Canada is excluded from
this figure because conviction data were not available before 1994.
The number of convictions per 1,000 offenders was highest for
Australia and Scotland and lowest for Sweden or England. The
correlations show that it decreased over time in England (-.89),
Sweden (-.84), Scotland (-.83), Netherlands (-.87), Australia (-.84),
and Switzerland (-.86), but increased in the United States (.82).

The probability of custody following a conviction for burglary is a
measure of the severity of punishment (figure 1d). This was highest in
the United States and Sweden (at least until 1994) and lowest in
Australia. The correlations show that this probability increased over
time in Scotland (.93), England (.60), Australia (.53), the United States
(.41), and Switzerland (.40), but decreased over time in Sweden (-.63).

The average time served for burglary, is a measure of the severity of
punishment. This was highest in the United States (until 1994) and
lowest in Sweden and Scotland. The correlations show that this
increased over time in Australia (.82), England (.74), Switzerland (.62),
Sweden (.53), and Scotland (.43) but not in the United States (-.12).

The survey and recorded crime rates for burglary were correlated over
time in the United States (.98), Switzerland (.96), England (.91),
Canada (.76), Scotland (.74), and the Netherlands (.49), but less so in
Sweden (.26) and not at all in Australia (-.10). The number of
convictions per 1,000 offenders was negatively correlated with the
survey crime rate in all countries, but most strongly in England (-.89),
the United States (-.86), and Switzerland (-.85) and hardly at all in 
the Netherlands (-.10). Correlations between the probability of custody
following a conviction and the survey crime rate were substantial and
negative only for the United States (-.48) and Scotland (-.43). There
were no substantial negative correlations between the average time
served and the survey crime rate, and one substantial positive
correlation for Australia (.40).

Robbery
    
The survey robbery rate was highest in Canada and the Netherlands,
and lowest in Scotland (until 1995). In 1999 the survey robbery rate
was lowest in the United States. It was not available for Sweden. The
correlations show that the survey robbery rate increased over time in
England (.91) and Scotland (.74) but decreased over time in the
United States (-.69). Correlations in the other four countries were low.
    
The recorded robbery rate shows this was highest in the United States
(until 1998) and lowest in Switzerland (figure 2b). The correlations
show that it increased in Australia (.97), England (.96), the
Netherlands (.93), Sweden (.91), Switzerland (.80) and Scotland 
(.49), decreased in the United States (-.43) and did not change in
Canada (.07).

The probability of custody following a conviction for robbery was lowest
in Switzerland and usually highest in Sweden and the United States
(figure 2d). The correlations show that it decreased over time in
Switzerland (-.92), Australia (-.90), Sweden (-.73), and England (-.60)
and increased in Scotland (.81).
    
The average time served for robbery was highest in the United States
and Australia and lowest in the Netherlands. According to the 
correlations, it increased over time in Switzerland (.99), England
(.92), and the Netherlands (.79) but did not change markedly in the
other four countries. 
    
The survey and recorded crime rates were highly correlated in England 
(.94) and the United States (.81) but not in any other country.  The 
negative correlation in Canada (-.81) was based on only 4 years.
The number of convictions per 1,000 offenders was negatively correlated 
with the survey robbery rate in Switzerland (-.93), Scotland (-.83), 
the Netherlands (-.71), and the United States (-.66), but the 
correlations were low in England (-.10) and Australia (-.17). The
probability of custody following a conviction for robbery was negatively
correlated with the survey robbery rate only in England (-.56); the
correlation was positive in Scotland (.55). The average time served for
robbery was negatively correlated with the survey robbery rate only in
the Netherlands (-.63); the correlation was positive in England (.79).

The number of convictions per 1,000 robbery offenders was generally
high in Scotland and the United States and generally low in
Switzerland and England. The correlations show that it increased over
time in the Netherlands (.77), the United States (.74), and Australia
(.45), and decreased over time in England (-.88), Switzerland (-.62),
and Scotland (-.33).

References

Farrington, D. P. and P. A. Langan, (1992) "Changes in crime and
punishment in England and America in the 1980s." Justice Quarterly,
9, 5-46.

Farrington, D. P., P. A. Langan, and P-O. H. Wikstr"m. (1994)
"Changes in crime and punishment in America, England and
Sweden between the 1980s and the 1990s." Studies on Crime and
Crime Prevention, 3, 104-131.

Farrington, D. P. and P-O. H. Wikstr"m, (1993) "Changes in crime
and punishment in England and Sweden in the 1980s." Studies on
Crime and Crime Prevention, 2, 142-170.

Federal Bureau of Investigation, (2002) Crime in the United States,
2001. Washington, DC: U.S. Department of Justice.
 
Kesteren, J. van, P. Mayhew, and P. Nieuwbeerta, (2000) Criminal
Victimization in 17 Industrialized Countries. The Hague,
Netherlands: Ministry of Justice. 

Langan, P. A. and D. P. Farrington, (1998) Crime and Justice in the
United States and in England and Wales, 1981-96. Washington,
D.C.: Bureau of Justice Statistics.

Authors

David P. Farrington, O.B.E. (Officer of the British Empire), is 
Professor of Psychological Criminology at the Institute of Criminology,
Cambridge University. He received B.A., M.A. and Ph.D. degrees in
psychology from Cambridge University, the Sellin-Glueck Award of the
American Society of Criminology for international contributions to
criminology, and the Sutherland Award of the American Society of
Criminology for outstanding contributions to criminology. His major
research interest is in the longitudinal survey of delinquency and
crime, and he is Director of the Cambridge Study in Delinquent
Development, a prospective longitudinal survey of over 400 London
males ages 8 to 48. He is also co-investigator of the Pittsburgh Youth
Study, a prospective longitudinal study of over 1,500 Pittsburgh males
ages 7 to 25. Besides about 350 published papers on criminological
and psychological topics, he has published 24 books, one of which
(Understanding and Controlling Crime, 1986) won the prize for
distinguished scholarship of the American Sociological Association
Criminology Section. He is chair of the Campbell Collaboration Crime
and Justice Group, a member of the board of directors of the
International Society of Criminology, a member of the advisory board
of the U.S. National Juvenile Court Data Archive, joint editor of the
Cambridge Criminology Series and of the journal, Criminal Behaviour
and Mental Health, and a member of 14 other journal editorial boards.
He was the first person from outside North America elected president
of the American Society of Criminology, and was president of the
European Association of Psychology and Law, president of the British
Society of Criminology, president of the Academy of Experimental
Criminology, and an officer or member of other associations in the
U.K., U.S., and Netherlands.

Patrick A. Langan is Senior Statistician at the Bureau of Justice
Statistics in the United States Department of Justice. He received a
B.A. degree in sociology and M.A. and Ph.D. degrees in criminology
from the University of Maryland. Formerly he was social science
analyst at the National Institute of Justice, research statistician at 
the Maryland Department of Juvenile Services, and Research Fellow at
the Institute of Criminal Justice and Criminology, University of
Maryland.

Michael Tonry joined the Institute of Criminology, Cambridge University 
as Director in October 1999. Formerly, he was Sonosky Professor of Law 
and Public Policy at the University of Minnesota Law School, a visiting 
fellow at All Souls College, Oxford University, and a senior fellow in 
the Meijers Institute of the faculty of law, University of Leiden. He 
also practiced law in large commercial law firms in Chicago and 
Philadelphia and as a sole practitioner in rural Maine. He was editor 
and publisher of The Castine Patriot, a weekly newspaper in Castine, 
Maine, and is author or editor of a number of books, including Thinking 
about Crime: Sense and Sensibility in American Penal Culture (2004), The
Future of Imprisonment (2004), Sentencing and Sanctions in Western 
Countries, with Richard Frase (2001), The Handbook of Crime and Punishment
(1998), Sentencing Matters (1996), and Malign Neglect: Race, Crime and
Punishment in America (1995). He has worked as an advisor to federal and 
state agencies in the U.S., Australia, and Canada, to national government
agencies in Europe, and to international organizations. He is editor of 
Crime and Justice: A Review of Research, published since 1979 by the
University of Chicago Press, Overcrowded Times, a bimonthly sentencing 
and corrections newsletter established in 1989, and the book series,
Studies in Crime and Public Policy, established in 1992 by Oxford
University Press.

Darrick Jolliffe is a researcher associated with the Institute of
Criminology, University of Cambridge and the Forensic Psychiatry
Research Department, Queen Mary and Westfield College, University
of London. His research interests include individual factors and
offending, criminal career research and the evaluation of offender
treatment programs. His publications include: Empathy and Offending:
a Systematic Review and Meta-analysis, Predictive, Concurrent,
Prospective and Retrospective Validity of Self-Reported Delinquency,
Evaluation of Two Intensive Regimes for Young Offenders and A
Feasibility Study into Using a Randomised Controlled Trial to Evaluate
Treatment Pilots at HMP Whitemoor.

Conclusions

The information in this report represents the most comprehensive and
sophisticated effort to present comparable data on national crime rates
and on the probability and severity of legal punishment. We hope that
it will be useful in improving the ability to explain national trends 
in crime and punishment over time and differences between countries. 

England and Wales

Aims

The main aim of this chapter is to summarize trends in crime and
justice in England and Wales between 1981 and 1999 and to
investigate some possible explanations of them. Six serious offenses
are studied: residential burglary, motor vehicle theft, robbery, serious
assault, rape, and homicide.

A criminal justice system involves a successive funneling process, shown
below in a simplified form:

Crime Committed
              
Reported to Police
              
Recorded by Police
              
Offender Convicted
              
Sentenced to Custody
              
Sentence Length
              
Time Served
              
Prison Population

Of all crimes committed only some are reported to the police. Of all
crimes reported only some are recorded by the police. Of all crimes
recorded only some lead to the detection of an offender and to a
conviction in court. Of all offenders found guilty in court, only 
some are sentenced to custody. These offenders receive sentences of 
different lengths but they serve only a portion of their sentence in 
custody, thereby becoming the prison population. There are many other 
possible stages that could have been shown (for example arrest), and 
many disposals other than imprisonment, but these are some of the most
important stages.

The key questions addressed are:

*  Is the serious crime rate per capita increasing or decreasing?
*  Is the conviction rate per capita increasing or decreasing?
*  Is the probability of an offender getting convicted increasing or
decreasing?
*  Is the probability of a convicted offender being sent to custody
increasing or decreasing?
*  Is the average sentence length increasing or decreasing?
*  Is the average time served increasing or decreasing?

The crime rate can be measured either from victimization survey data or
from crimes recorded by the police. Generally, survey data are considered 
to provide the more accurate measure of crime. The probability of a victim
reporting a crime to the police and the probability of the police recording 
a crime that is reported to them provide the links between victimization 
and police-recorded data, and help to understand both. Consequently, two
further questions will be addressed: 
*  Is the probability of a victim reporting a crime to the police increasing
or decreasing?
*  Is the probability of the police recording a crime that is reported to 
them increasing or decreasing?

This is the final important question:

*  Is the average time served per offender increasing or decreasing?

The average time served per offender is a summary measure of punitiveness,
combining the probability of an offender getting convicted, the 
probability of an offender receiving custody following a conviction, 
and the average time served.

England and Wales

Description

Great Britain (GB) is the island containing England, Wales and Scotland, 
while the United Kingdom (U.K.) contains GB and Northern Ireland. Many
statistics are collected for GB or the UK rather than for England and 
Wales (see Office for National Statistics or ONS, 2000a, 2001). In 1999 
the resident population of England was 49.8 million, compared with 2.9 
million in Wales. The population density of England is high (381 people 
per square kilometer, compared with 141 in Wales). Between 1981 and 
1999 the population increased by 6.3% in England and by 4.4% in Wales.

The UK is a Western industrialized democracy and a constitutional
monarchy. Its members of parliament (MP's) are from England (529),
Wales (40), Scotland (73), and Northern Ireland (18). Unlike England
the other three countries have separate national bodies responsible 
for their central administration. The UK has an aging population, and
projections are that the median age will continue to rise from its 
1999 value of 37. Life expectancy is 75 for males and 80 for females. 
There are over 300,000 marriages and over 150,000 divorces each year 
in the UK, and there has been a big increase in single-person and
single-parent households in recent years. The GB resident population
contains 6.7% from non-white ethnic minority groups, of which the
most prevalent are South Asians (Indians, Pakistanis, Bangladeshis --
3.4%) and Blacks (Africans, Caribbeans -- 2.1%).

The U.K. National Health Service provides a full range of medical
services available to all residents regardless of income. All children
between age 5 and 16 are required by law to receive full-time education,
and about two-thirds of children age 3 and 4 attend preschool education.
About one-third of people continue in higher education after age 18, and
this has increased considerably in recent years.

The United Kingdom is a relatively prosperous country. The value of all
goods and services produced in the U.K. economy for final consumption
is measured by the Gross Domestic Product (GDP). In 1999 the GDP at
current market prices totaled 891 billion, or about 15,000 per person.
The average annual growth in GDP at constant market prices between
1995 and 1999 was 2.9%. Inflation is currently low at about 2%. About
85% of males and 73% of females of working age are economically
active, and the unemployment rate is historically low at 5.2% for 
England and 6.1% for Wales. In the United Kingdom over 70% of 
households have at least one car and over 25% have at least two.
The criminal justice system

England and Wales have a common criminal justice system, while
Scotland and Northern Ireland have different systems. In England and
Wales the Home Office is responsible for the criminal law, the police,
prison and probation services, and it publishes most criminal justice
statistics (Chapman and Niven, 2000). The Lord Chancellor's Department
is responsible for the courts and the Attorney General is responsible for
the Crown Prosecution Service. There is an adversarial system of justice
and most cases are sentenced by a panel of three unpaid lay people in
Magistrates' Courts. The more serious (indictable) offenses are
processed by judges and juries in the Crown Courts. There are 43 police
forces in England and Wales and a total of about 125,000 police officers,
or about 1 officer per 420 persons.

The minimum age of criminal responsibility in England and Wales is 10.
Persons age 10 to 17 are tried separately from adults in special Youth
Courts, although they may be tried in adult Magistrates' Courts or Crown
Courts depending on the seriousness of their offenses. In 1999 the main
custodial sentence for those age 15 to 20 was detention in a Young
Offender Institution, while persons age 12 to 14 could be given Secure
Training Orders. From April 1, 2000 the main custodial sentence for
those age 12 to 17 became the Detention and Training Order. Persons
age 21 or older can be sent to prison. Those receiving fixed sentences
of less than 4 years are released after serving half the sentence, 
while those serving sentences of 4 years or more can be released by the
Parole Board after serving half their sentence and must be released after
serving two-thirds of their sentence (unless they misbehave in prison).

After the Labour Government came to power in 1997, it pursued a two-
pronged approach of increasing prevention and punishment. The Crime
and Disorder Act 1998 especially focused on prevention, setting up Crime
and Disorder partnerships in local areas to take charge of local crime
reduction initiatives, and establishing Youth Offending Teams to oversee
rehabilitative and restorative justice programs for young offenders.
Regarding punishment the Crime (Sentences) Act 1997 specified that an
offender age 18 or older on a second conviction for a serious violent or
sexual offense should receive an automatic life sentence unless there are
exceptional circumstances. It also specified that an offender age 18 or
older on a third conviction for residential burglary should receive a
minimum sentence of 3 years imprisonment, but this did not take effect
until 2000.

Method

The criminal justice system in England and Wales can easily be described 
using a flow diagram such as that presented above. It is much more 
difficult to quantify the system in practice by specifying the exact
number of offenders flowing through at each stage. Such a specification
would have great theoretical and practical relevance. For example, it
would help to determine whether changes in prison populations were
caused by changes in crime rates, reporting, recording, conviction 
rates, the probability of custody, sentences given, or time served. 

All following references to England will include Wales (in order to 
simplify the exposition). A key problem is that national data tracking
individual offenders by some unique identifier across the different 
stages of the criminal justice system are not available in England. 
Ideally a longitudinal study is needed, beginning with offenses and 
tracking offenders through the different stages of the system. However,
aggregate national data are available for each of the stages separately 
(such as crimes committed, persons convicted, persons sentenced to 
custody). These separate counts do not arise from tracking the same
individuals across stages, but they permit reasonably accurate estimates 
of the flow of offenders from one stage to the next.

The present research

This chapter is a continuation of previous work, which began with David
Farrington's presidential address to the British Society of Criminology 
in January 1990, attempting to link national-level data in England to
estimate offense-specific numbers flowing through the criminal justice
system at each stage, from crimes committed to crimes reported to the
police, crimes recorded by the police, offenders convicted, offenders
sentenced to custody, average sentence length, and average time
served, in two years (1981 and 1987). The first publication (Farrington
and Langan, 1992) estimated numbers flowing through the criminal
justice system in both England and the United States and compared
trends over time (between 1981 and 1987 in England, between 1981 and
1986 in the United States).

The first year that it was possible to make these estimates in England
was 1981, which was the first year of the national victimization survey --
the British Crime Survey or BCS (Hough and Mayhew 1983). The BCS
was repeated at 2-year or 4-year intervals, covering the years 1983,
1987, 1991, 1993, 1995, 1997 and 1999. Since 2001 (covering crimes in
the year 2000), the BCS has been repeated annually. The sample size
was initially just over 10,000, but it gradually rose to 19,400 for the 
year 1999, and  it was projected to double to 40,000 in 2001 (for the 
year 2000). National figures for police-recorded crimes, convictions, 
and sentencing have been available annually in England for many years.
There are no published national arrest figures for England. National
figures for average sentence length and average time served were first
published in 1986 (Home Office 1987, p.77). Offense-specific figures 
for average sentence length and average time served were provided for
prison release cohorts in certain years by the Home Office.

The second publication (Farrington and Wikstrm, 1993) estimated
numbers flowing through the criminal justice system in England and
Sweden and compared trends over time (between 1981 and 1987). The
third publication (Farrington, Langan, and Wikstrm 1994) extended 
the previous analyses to between 1981 and 1991 for England and Sweden
and between 1981 and 1990 for the United States. 

One problem with the first three analyses is that they reported changes
between two widely separated time points rather than trends over time,
making it difficult to know precisely when changes occurred and how they
might be explained. The fourth publication (Langan and Farrington, 1998)
calculated all numbers and probabilities for 7 years in the United States
(1981, 1983, 1986, 1988, 1990, 1992 and 1994) and for 6 years in
England (1981, 1983, 1987, 1991, 1993 and 1995). The American years
were those in which the NJRP (National Judicial Reporting Program)
survey was carried out (1986, 1988, 1990, 1992 and 1994), which yielded
the number of adults convicted and sentenced to custody, plus 1981 and
1983, when estimates of these quantities were derived. The English
years were those in which the BCS was carried out, which estimated the
number of crimes committed and the number reported to the police. All
of the needed information was not available for other years. The fourth
publication aimed to present key results in a more user-friendly way,
using graphics rather than tables. Also, the estimation methods used in
the fourth publication were greatly simplified compared with the first 
three publications.

This chapter uses the same methods as the fourth publication. Eight
years are covered (1981, 1983, 1987, 1991, 1993, 1995, 1997, 1999). In
general, sources of data are given only for the most recent years (1997
and 1999); for sources of data in earlier years, one should consult the
earlier publications. While the key results are shown graphically, 
the full spreadsheets are included as tables 1-6. Readers who are 
mainly interested in substantive issues as opposed to methodology 
should now advance to the Results section. 

Comparability

There are two main problems of comparability: over time and between
victim survey and criminal justice data. Legal definitions of burglary
(entering as a trespasser to commit theft or damage), robbery (theft
involving force or threat), motor vehicle theft (theft or unauthorized 
taking of motor vehicles) and homicide (murder, manslaughter or 
infanticide) are relatively clear and constant over time. Attempts are
included with completed crimes, except for vehicle theft in survey data 
and homicide in criminal justice data. Attempted vehicle theft was not
included with vehicle theft in the BCS because of the difficulty of
distinguishing between attempted theft of vehicles and attempted theft 
from vehicles. Attempted murder is a separate legal category in England.

Between 1981 and 1999 the legal definitions of burglary, robbery, and
homicide did not change in England. Unauthorized taking of a motor
vehicle was downgraded from an indictable (more serious) to a summary
(less serious) offense in the Criminal Justice Act 1988 (with effect 
from October 12, 1988). Subsequently a new offense of aggravated vehicle
taking was created by the Aggravated Vehicle Taking Act 1991 (with
effect from April 1, 1992). For comparability with earlier years, 
English motor vehicle theft in 1999 comprised four legal categories: 
theft of a motor vehicle (indictable), unauthorized taking of a motor 
vehicle (summary), and aggravated vehicle taking (indictable and 
summary).

Rape (including attempted rape) is a more problematic offense. In
England in 1981 rape had to involve a male offender and a female victim
and required penetration of the vagina by the penis. Husbands could not
be convicted of raping their wives. No male under age 14 could be
convicted of rape. Female offenders were included in the rape statistics
if they aided or abetted rape. The minimum age for a rape conviction was
decreased from 14 to 10 -- the minimum age of conviction for other
offenses -- in the Sexual Offenses (Amendment) Act 1993 (with effect
from September 20, 1993). The definition of rape was changed in the
Criminal Justice and Public Order Act 1994 (with effect from November
1, 1994) to include male victims, spouse victims, and anal intercourse.
However, the majority of rape offenses continue to involve male
offenders, female victims, and vaginal intercourse. Consensual sex with
girls under 16 is placed in a different legal category. It is possible to
identify the numbers of male offenders and female victims in the official
criminal statistics. The sample size in the BCS is too small to yield a
survey estimate of rape.

Serious assault poses the greatest problem. In England up to 1997, the
BCS (and the police-recorded figures) distinguished between the
indictable offense of wounding (causing actual or grievous bodily harm)
and the summary offense of common assault. Serious assault is defined
as wounding in this chapter. Wounding occurs if the victim receives some
kind of cut or wound, where the skin or a bone is broken, or if medical
attention is needed. Common assault occurs if the victim is punched,
kicked or jostled, with negligible or no injury. Minor bruising or a 
black eye count as negligible injury. Attempted assaults are not counted 
as wounding in the BCS. Because of legal problems such as establishing
intention, most attempted assaults would also not be counted as
wounding by the police. The legal definition of wounding did not change
between 1981 and 1997. Ideally, it would be desirable to use an injury
severity scale to classify the seriousness of assaults.

The Home Office rules specifying how crimes are counted by the police
did not change between January 1980 and March 1998. From April 1998
new counting rules were introduced (see Povey and Prime 1999). At the
same time police-recorded crimes began to be presented in the annual
Criminal Statistics on a financial year basis (for example, April
1998-March 1999) rather than on a calendar year basis, although data 
on convictions and sentencing continued to be presented for each 
calendar year.

The new counting rules particularly affected the number of
police-recorded criminal damage and fraud offenses. They had a
negligible impact on five of our six offenses (all except serious 
assault).  The main effect was on the "other wounding" category (8), 
which was extended to include possession of weapons (8B), harassment 
(8C) and (from April 1999), racially aggravated wounding (8D). However, 
the number of other woundings in the original category (8A) was still
presented and Povey and Prime estimated that this number was only
3.2% less than the total number of other woundings under the old rules.
Therefore, the number of police- recorded woundings in 1999 (categories
8A and 8D) may be about 3% less than in 1997 because of the change
in the counting rules.

Great efforts have been made to ensure that crime definitions in the 
BCS are comparable to those in official (police) statistics, but some
differences are inevitable. For example, the BCS does not include thefts 
of commercial vehicles, crimes against organizations, or against persons
under 16. However, one can adjust the police statistics to obtain figures
which are comparable to victim survey estimates.

Survey offenses

The number of victim-survey offenses, comparable population figures
(number of households and number of persons age 16 or older), and the
probability of reporting to the police were obtained from the BCS (Budd,
2001; Kershaw and others 2000; Mirrlees-Black and others, 1998;
Mattinson, 1999; 2000). The figures shown in tables 1-6 are the latest
estimates for all years taking account of the 1991 Census. For example,
the BCS estimated that there were 345,994 robberies in 1999, and that
30% of them were reported to the police. Since there were an estimated
41,996,000 persons age 16 or older in 1999, the survey robbery rate was
8.24 per 1,000 population at risk; disregarding repeat victims, about 
one in every 121 persons was robbed in 1999. All BCS figures, of course,
have confidence intervals about them. For example, the 95% confidence
interval for the robbery rate in 1999 was from 5.06 to 11.42 per 1,000
population. Confidence intervals are narrower for the other three
offenses, which are more prevalent.

BCS survey crime rates for residential burglary and vehicle theft are per
1,000 households, while rates for robbery and serious assault (wounding)
are per 1,000 population age 16 or older. Vehicle theft figures refer to
completed thefts only. Other population estimates came from the Office
for National Statistics (such as 2000b); tables 1-6 show the latest
estimates for all years.

The main change in the BCS over the years was the addition of a new
screening question for domestic violence ("Has any member of your
household deliberately hit you with their fists or with a weapon of 
any sort or kicked you or used force or violence in any other way?") 
and a new victim form in 1993. This caused an increase in the number of
victim-survey offenses of serious assault. Mayhew (1997) and Mattinson
(1999, 2000) provided serious assault estimates with and without the new
domestic violence screening question; for example, the figures were
810,994 (without) and 860,395 (with) in 1995. For comparability with 
the 1981-91 figures, the "without" figures are used in these analyses. 

In order to link up offenses and offenders, the average number of
offenders per offense is needed. This is because one offense committed
by two offenders can lead to two convictions (if both offenders are
convicted). Thus, the number of offenders at risk of conviction is the
number of offenses multiplied by the average number of offenders per
offense. Merely comparing the number of offenses with the number of
convictions is like comparing apples and oranges.

For burglary, vehicle theft, robbery, and serious assault, the average
number of offenders per offense was provided from the BCS by
Mirrlees-Black (1996) and Mattinson (1999, 2000). For homicide this was
obtained from the annual Criminal Statistics (Home Office, 1998a, p.71;
2000a, p.75). The average over all years was used in estimating
probabilities. This was 1.8 for burglary, 2.1 for vehicle theft, 2.3 for
robbery, 2.0 for serious assault, and 1.1 for homicide. For rape the only
national data on the number of offenders per offense seems to be that
published by Grace, Lloyd and Smith (1992) for offenses committed in
1985. They reported that, for police-recorded offenses, there were 1.1
offenders per rape offense. This figure was used in all calculations.

Police-recorded offenses

The number of police-recorded offenses was obtained from the annual
criminal statistics. The number of recorded offenses in the calendar 
year 1999 was provided by Lavin (2001). 

The number of police-recorded offenses refers to the number initially
recorded by the police in each offense category in each year, irrespective
of later court proceedings. Assault comprised section 5 wounding (mainly
causing grievous bodily harm) and section 8a and 8d wounding (mainly
causing actual bodily harm). Vehicle theft comprised theft or unauthorized
taking of motor vehicles and aggravated vehicle taking. Only rape of a
female was counted. As an example, there were 78,884 recorded
robberies in 1999. Since the resident population was estimated to be
52,690,000 in 1999, the police-recorded robbery rate was 1.5 robberies
per 1,000 population (one robbery per 668 citizens).

The numbers of police-recorded offenses that were comparable to survey
offenses were estimated by Mayhew (1996), Mattinson (1999, 2000) and
Budd (2001). The estimation procedures were explained by
Mirrlees-Black and others (1998, pp. 75-83) and Kershaw and others
(2000, pp. 115-121). In 1997 the total number of recorded robberies was
64,878 (63,072 recorded by the police and 1,806 recorded by the British
Transport Police). Excluding an estimated 20% of cases where the victim
was less than age 16, 51,902 of these recorded robberies were
considered to be comparable to the 345,994 BCS robberies. The main
adjustments to recorded crimes were to exclude thefts of commercial
vehicles, attempted vehicle thefts, and victims under 16. However,
robberies of business property were counted in the BCS.

Dividing the number of comparable police-recorded offenses by the
number of survey offenses yields the probability of a survey offense 
being     recorded by the police. For robbery in 1999 this was .19
(64,472/345,994). It is more interesting to disaggregate this figure 
into the probability of a survey offense being reported and the 
probability of a reported offense being recorded by the police. Since 
the probability of reporting a robbery in 1999 was .30, the probability 
of a reported robbery being recorded by the police in 1999 was .61
(64,472/105,198). The fact that the estimated probability of a reported
offense being recorded was greater than 1 for vehicle theft in 1981 
and 1983 is probably a function of the confidence interval around the 
number of reported offenses and the fact that almost all of the reported
offenses would have been recorded.

Convictions

The number of persons convicted for each offense was obtained from the
annual Supplementary Criminal Statistics (for example, Home Office
1998b, Annex A; Home Office 2000b, Annex A). In earlier years it was
necessary to add convictions in Crown Courts and Magistrates' Courts.
It was also necessary to add different offense categories (murder,
manslaughter, infanticide, and manslaughter due to diminished
responsibility for homicide; section 5 and 8 woundings for assault; 
theft of a motor vehicle, unauthorized taking, and indictable and 
summary aggravated vehicle taking for vehicle theft). As already 
explained rape convictions since 1994 can include male and female 
victims and male and female offenders. The Supplementary Criminal 
Statistics showed that there were 601 male offenders with female 
victims in 1999. 

As an example, 5,626 persons were convicted for robbery in 1999. Since
there were an estimated 46,029,000 persons age 10 or older in 1999
(Office for National Statistics, 2000b), the conviction rate for 
robbery was 0.122 per 1,000 population at risk. Since there were an 
estimated 345,994 robberies in 1999 and an estimated 2.3 offenders per
offense, there were an estimated 795,786 offenders (not necessarily 
different persons) who could in theory have been convicted for BCS-
comparable robberies if the criminal justice system had been 100% 
efficient. Since BCS-comparable robberies comprised 82% of all 
recorded robberies in 1999 (64,472/ 78,884), it could be estimated 
that there were 973,675 offenders at risk of conviction for all types 
of robberies. 

Dividing this number by the number of persons convicted (5,626) yields
the estimate that there were 173 offenders per conviction, or that the
probability of conviction for each robbery offender was .0058 in 1999
(5.8 convictions per 1,000 offenders). Alternatively, it might be said 
that the average robber could commit 173 robberies for every one court
appearance leading to conviction. This neglects cautions (576 for 
robbery in 1999)and multiple offenses dealt with on one court 
appearance, on the assumption that one conviction provides one 
opportunity for legal punishment as far as the offender is concerned. 
The calculations for rape and homicide were based only on police-
recorded offenses.

While only one in 173 robbery offenders was convicted for each offense,
the probability of a robbery offender being convicted sooner or later 
is much greater than this, because the average offender commits several
offenses.  For example, in the Cambridge Study in Delinquent
Development, 58% of males who committed burglary between age 10
and 32 (according to self-reports) were convicted of burglary at some
time (Farrington, 1989).

National arrest data were collected for the first time in 1999 (Barclay,
2001). For example, there were 24,351 arrests for robbery. It can
therefore be calculated that the probability of arrest for robbery in 
1999 was .025 (24,351/ 973,675), or conversely that 1 in 40 robbery 
offenders was arrested. (This probability is an overestimate, because 
it is possible for a person to be arrested more than once for the same
offense.) The probability of an arrest for robbery leading to a 
prosecution for robbery was .424 (10,321/24,351). The probability of 
a prosecution for robbery leading to a conviction for robbery was .545
(5,626/10,321). The multiplication of .025 (probability of arrest per
offender) by .424(probability of prosecution per arrest) and by .545
(probability of conviction per prosecution) yields the figure of .0058
(probability of conviction per offender). Assuming that these data are
collected in future years, it should be possible to estimate these 
system probabilities each year and investigate their trends over 
time.

Probability of custody

The number of persons sentenced to custody for each offense was
obtained from the Supplementary Criminal Statistics (for example Home
Office 1998b, Annex A; Home Office 2000b, Annex A). As before it was
necessary to add Crown Courts and Magistrates' Courts and different
offense categories. It was also necessary to add different types of
custodial sentences (in 1999: imprisonment, detention in a young
offender institution, secure hospital order, secure training order, 
detention under section 53 of the Children and Young Persons Act 
1933; in 1981: imprisonment, borstal, detention center, secure 
hospital order, detention under section 53 of the Children and 
Young Persons Act 1933).

As an example, 4,085 offenders were given custodial sentences for
robbery in 1999, or 73% of all convicted robbery offenders. The
incarceration rate for robbery in 1999 was 0.09 per 1,000 persons age 
10 or older. The probability of an offender receiving a custodial 
sentence was calculated by multiplying the probability of an offender 
being convicted by the probability of a conviction being followed by 
custody. For robbery in 1999 this was .0042, since there were 5.8 
convictions per 1,000 robberies and 73% of convictions for robbery 
were followed by a custodial sentence. This corresponds to one in 
every 238 robbers receiving a custodial sentence (4.2 incarcerations 
per 1,000 offenders). Again, these are not necessarily 238 different 
persons. To the extent that people commit several robberies, their 
probability of receiving a custodial sentence sooner or later will 
be much greater than this. 

Sentence length and time served

Offense-specific data on average sentence length and average time
served in prison by released prisoners (including juveniles) in 1997 and
1999 were supplied by Stevens (1999, 2000). The figures were provided
for burglary in general, not for residential burglary specifically. 
Figures for offenders released in 1982, 1984, 1988, 1991, 1993, 1995, 
1997 and 1999 are shown in tables 1-6. Initially it was thought that the
following year was the most relevant (for example, because most robbers
sentenced to custody in 1981 were released in 1982). However 1992 data 
were not available at the time of the analysis by Farrington, Langan,
and Wikstrm (1994), so 1991 data were used, and for consistency 1993,
1995, 1997 and 1999 data were used subsequently. 

Offense-specific data on average sentence lengths were published for
the first time in the 1995 Supplementary Criminal Statistics, but these
figures were not used in this report (in the interests of comparability 
with earlier years). For example, these figures show an average sentence
length for robbery of 35.3 months in 1999, compared with 40 months. The
discrepancy may be attributable to short-sentence prisoners who are 
released immediately after their convictions (because of time served on
remand) and hence are never received into prison after conviction. 
These would not be included in the figures for released prisoners.
Alternatively, it may reflect a difference between those sentenced in 
1999 and those released in 1999. Those released in 1999 are arguably 
more comparable to those sentenced in 1997, and the average sentence 
length for robbery in 1997 was 39.4 months, very close to the average 
sentence length of offenders released in 1999.

It is quite complex to estimate average sentence length from the
Supplementary Criminal Statistics, because averages are given
separately for each type of sentence, for the Crown Court and
Magistrates' Court, and for males and females. Thus, the 4,085 persons
sentenced to custody for robbery in 1999 had the following average
sentence lengths (excluding 37 who received life imprisonment): Crown
Court prison 1960 males (45 months), Crown Court prison 119 females
(26 months), Crown Court YOI (Young Offender Institution) 1,439 males
(28 months), Crown Court YOI 81 females (20 months), Crown Court
Section 53 detention 245 males (36 months), Crown Court Section 53
detention 12 females (27 months), Crown Court Secure Training Order
(STO) 4 males (9 months), Magistrates' Court YOI 171 males (3.6
months), Magistrates' Court YOI 7 females (3.8 months), Magistrates'
Court STO 9 males (4.7 months), Magistrates Court STO 1 female (6
months). The total sentence length was 143,077 months for 4,048
persons, or 35.3 months on average.

The offense categories of prisoners are slightly different from those used
in the Criminal Statistics, but "assault" and "wounding" in the prison data
are approximately equivalent to the two "wounding" categories (5 and 8)
in the Criminal Statistics, and "taking and driving away" in the prison data
covers at least 95% of those sentenced to custody for vehicle theft in the
Criminal Statistics (Barclay, 1993). The average sentence length and
average time served for assault were weighted combinations of the
assault and wounding categories (weighted by the number of released
offenders).
    
As an example, the average sentence length for robbery releasees in
1999 was 40 months, and the average time served was 23 months, or
58% of the sentence. The average time served per conviction was
estimated by multiplying the probability of custody following a conviction
by the average time served. For robbery in 1999 73% of convictions were
followed by custody, and the average time served was 23 months (700
days), yielding an average of 508 days served per conviction.

The average time served per offender is a summary measure of overall
punitiveness that combines the probability of an offender being convicted
(a measure of the risk of punishment) and the average time served per
conviction (a measure of the severity of punishment). For robbery in
1999, one in 173 offenders was convicted, and 508 days were served per
conviction for robbery, so an average 2.94 days were served per robbery
offender.

There are no English national data routinely published on time served in
custody before conviction. However, the report of the Carlisle committee
(1988, p.147) based on 1987 releasees estimated that about 10% of a
prisoner's sentence was spent on remand before sentencing. The figures
on time served after conviction in the Tables have not been adjusted to
take this time into account.

Homicide

Special estimation procedures were used for homicide, because of the
large number of indeterminate life sentences. Few life sentences were
given for the other offenses. In England a life sentence (or an equivalent
indeterminate detention for a juvenile) is mandatory for murder. In 1999
228 life sentences were given for murder, 16 life sentences were given
for manslaughter, and 173 non-life prison sentences were given for
manslaughter (Home Office 2000b, Tables S2.4, S2.5 and Annex A).
There were also 32 section 53 orders and 25 secure hospital orders for
homicide. Apart from these 59% (244/417) of the custodial sentences for
homicide in 1999 were life sentences.

In 1999 the average time served by homicide offenders first released
from life sentences was 13.3 years or 159.6 months (Stevens, 2000). Of
course the concept of sentence length is problematic with life sentences.
The effective length of life sentences was estimated on the basis of the
fraction of time served by homicide cases with non-life sentences. For
non-life homicide offenders released in 1999, the average sentence
length was 46.9 months and the average time served was 27.3 months,
or 58% of the sentence (Stevens, 2000). Assuming that life sentence
homicide cases were also serving 58% of their sentence, the effective
length of a life sentence for homicide in 1999 was considered to be 274.2
months (159.6/.582) or 22.9 years.

The average sentence length and average time served for homicide were
weighted averages of life and non-life sentences. For example, in 1999
the average sentence length was 244 x 274.2 (life sentences) + 173 x
46.9 (non-life sentences), divided by 417, which came to 179.9 months.

Results

Survey crime rates

Based on the national victimization survey (the BCS), the residential
burglary rate per household more than doubled between 1981 and 1993
(from 41 to 86 per 1,000 households), then decreased by one-third up to
1999. The vehicle theft rate increased by two-thirds between 1981 and
1993 (from 16 to 26 per 1,000 households), but then decreased back to
below the 1981 figure by 1999. The robbery rate almost doubled between
1981 and 1999 (from 4.2 to 8.2 per 1,000 population age 16 or older. The
serious assault (wounding) rate increased by 50% between 1981 and
1995 (from 13.1 to 19.7 per 1,000 population age 16 or older), but then
decreased by 30% between 1995 and 1999.
    
In order to determine whether crimes were increasing markedly over
time, the survey crime rate was correlated with the year. This correlation
was based on only 8 years. Since the correlation coefficient can vary from
0 (no relationship) to 1 (a perfect relationship), a correlation of .5 or
greater was considered to indicate a strong relationship. Burglary (r =
.67), robbery (r = .91) and assault (r = .62) increased markedly between
1981 and 1999, whereas vehicle theft (r = .22) did not.

The vehicle theft rate had a low correlation with year because of the
nonlinear relationship: it increased up to 1993 and then decreased. The
burglary rate varied similarly over time. Consequently, for burglary and
vehicle theft, the correlation between crime rate and year is shown
separately for  two periods, 1981-93 and 1993-99. Both the burglary rate
(r = .97) and the vehicle theft rate (r = .98) increased markedly between
1981 and 1993, and conversely both the burglary rate (r = -.94) and the
vehicle theft rate (r = -.98) decreased markedly between 1993 and 1999.

Recorded crime rates
Like the survey burglary rate, the police-recorded residential burglary 
rate doubled between 1981 and 1993 (from 7.1 to 14.1 per 1,000 population),
but then decreased by 39% up to 1999. Recorded crime rates are shown
for all years from 1981 to 1999. Similarly, the vehicle theft rate 
increased by 73% between 1981 and 1993 (from 6.7 to 11.6 per 1,000 
population)but then decreased back to 7.2 per 1,000 population in 1999. 
The robbery rate almost quadrupled between 1981 and 1999 (from 0.4 to 
1.5 per 1,000 population;). The serious assault (wounding) rate more than
doubled between 1981 and 1997 (from 2.0 to 4.6 per 1,000 population)
but then decreased by 10% up to 1999. The police-recorded rape rate
increased 7-fold between 1981 and 1999 (from 0.04 to 0.29 per 1,000
females;). The homicide (murder and manslaughter) rate increased by
a quarter between 1981 and 1987 (from 0.011 to 0.014 per 1,000
population;), but then stayed tolerably constant. 

Based on 19 years for recorded crimes, the correlations show that
recorded robbery (r = .96), assault (r = .97), rape (r = .99), and 
homicide (r = .81) all increased substantially over time in. Recorded 
burglary and vehicle theft increased substantially between 1981 and 
1993 and decreased substantially between 1993 and 1999.

Reporting crimes to the police

According to victims the probability of reporting crimes to the police
stayed tolerably constant over time for vehicle theft (mean 96%) and
assault. The probability of reporting a burglary to the police increased 
up to 1991 (at 73%) but then decreased to 62% in 1999. The probability of
reporting a robbery to the police increased to a peak in 1995-97 (57%)
but then decreased remarkably, to 30% in 1999. All correlations between
percent reported and year are low, confirming that the probability of
reporting did not vary markedly over time.

The large fluctuation in the probability of reporting a robbery may 
reflect estimates based on small numbers. In 1999 the BCS sample size 
was 19,411 persons age 16 or older out of a total population of 
41,995,700.  Therefore each survey robbery was scaled up by 2,164
(41,995,700/19,411) to produce a population estimate. Therefore the
345,994 survey robberies in 1999 represented 160 robberies (345,994/2,
164) disclosed to interviewers, of which 49 were reported to the police. 
The comparable estimates in 1997 were 112 robberies disclosed to 
interviewers and 62 reported to the police. These small numbers are 
likely to produce large year-to-year fluctuations in estimates.

Recording crimes by the police

The probability of the police recording a residential burglary that was
reported to them decreased steadily from 70% in 1981 to 50% in 1997
but then increased to 59% in 1999. The probability of the police recording
a vehicle theft also tended to decrease, but more irregularly, from 100%
in 1981 to 83% in 1995 but it then increased to 91% in 1999. The
probability of police recording decreased markedly over time for burglary
(r = -.90) and vehicle theft (r = -.72). The probability of the police
recording an assault increased irregularly, from 41% in 1981 to 67% in
1997 before decreasing to 54% in 1999. The probability of the police
recording a robbery doubled from 1981 (24%) to 1991-93 (47%), then
decreased back to 30% in 1997 before doubling again to 61% in 1999.
Some of these large fluctuations obviously reflect estimates based on
small numbers, as explained above. The probability of police recording
increased markedly over time for robbery (r = .55) and assault (r = .79).

Conviction rates

The conviction rate for residential burglary decreased steadily between
1981 and 1999 (from 0.57 to 0.36 per 1,000 population age 10 or older;).
Adding in cautions would not greatly alter this trend. The conviction rate
for vehicle theft decreased steadily from 1981 to 1995 (from 0.83 to 0.34
per 1,000 population;  and then remained constant. The conviction rate
for robbery increased by a quarter between 1981 and 1999, while the
conviction rate for assault decreased by half between 1981 and 1995
before increasing again. The conviction rate of males for rape increased
by three-quarters between 1981 and 1999, while the conviction rate for
homicide increased irregularly by a quarter. Conviction rates decreased
markedly over time for burglary (r = -.92), vehicle theft (r = -.96) and
assault (r = -.80) and increased markedly for robbery (r = .89), rape (r =
.81) and homicide (r = .62). 

Custody rates

The population custody rate (persons sentenced to custody per 1,000
population) for residential burglary decreased from 0.26 in 1983 to 0.16
in 1991 and then increased slightly to 0.22 in 1999. The custody rate for
vehicle theft decreased dramatically from 0.21 in 1981 to 0.07 in 1991,
but then increased somewhat to 0.10 in 1995-99. The custody rate for
robbery stayed tolerably constant between 1981 and 1995 but then
increased slightly. Similarly, the custody rate for assault stayed 
tolerably constant between 1981 and 1995 but then increased. The custody 
rates for rape and homicide closely tracked the conviction rates in 
increasing irregularly over time. The population custody rate increased
markedly over time for robbery (r = .73), rape (r = .83), and homicide 
(r = .74), and decreased markedly for vehicle theft (r = -.70). 

Probability of an offender being convicted

The number of convictions per 1,000 residential burglary offenders
decreased steadily between 1981 and 1993, from 18.5 to 5.6 before
increasing to 7.3 in 1999. The number of convictions per 1,000 vehicle
thieves collapsed from 1981 to 1995 (from 51.6 to 11.7) but then
increased to 16.5 in 1999. The number of convictions per 1,000 robbers
stayed constant from 1981 to 1991 (at about 10) but then decreased to
5.8 in 1999. The number of convictions per 1,000 assaulters decreased
from 1981 to 1995 (from 41.2 to 14.4) but then increased to 24.6 in 1999.
The number of rape and homicide offenders was estimated from
police-recorded crimes, not from victim survey crimes. The number of
convictions per 1,000 rapists decreased from 272 in 1981 to 71 in 1999.
The number of convictions per 1,000 homicide offenders fluctuated
considerably around 600.

The probability of an offender being convicted decreased substantially
over time for burglary (r = -.89), vehicle theft (r = -.90), robbery 
(r = -.88), assault (r = -.87), and rape (r = -.95). This probability
decreased between 1981 and 1993 for burglary (r = -.98) and vehicle 
theft (r = -.99), but then increased between 1993 and 1999 for burglary 
(r = .92) and vehicle theft (r = .92).

Decreases in the probability of conviction in the 1980's could have been
caused by (1) the increasing use of recorded cautions and unrecorded
warnings for detected offenders (Home Office 1985, 1990b; Farrington,
1992); (2) the Police and Criminal Evidence Act 1984, implemented in
January 1986, which increased procedural safeguards for accused
persons (Irving and MacKenzie 1989); (3) the introduction of the Crown
Prosecution Service in 1986, with lawyers replacing police officers as
prosecutors, leading to an increasing tendency to drop cases rather than
prosecute them, and (4) the requirement for advance disclosure of the
prosecution case in May 1985. There were also measures affecting
specific offenses. For example, new charging standards for assault 
were introduced on August 31, 1994, which downgraded some 
convictions from indictable wounding to nonindictable common 
assault.

Probability of an offender receiving custody

The probability of a residential burglary offender receiving a custodial
sentence decreased between 1981 and 1993 (from 6.9 to 2.3 incarcerations 
per 1,000 burglars), but then increased to 4.5 in 1999. The
probability of a vehicle thief receiving a custodial sentence decreased
dramatically between 1981 and 1991 (from 13.0 to 2.5 incarcerations per
1,000 offenders), but then increased to 4.8 in 1999. The probability of 
a robber receiving a custodial sentence decreased irregularly from 1981 
to 1999, from 7.4 to 4.2 incarcerations per 1,000 offenders. The 
probability of an assaulter receiving a custodial sentence decreased 
from 1983 to 1995 (from 7.4 to 3.9 incarcerations per 1,000 offenders), 
but then almost doubled up to 1999. The probability of a rapist receiving 
a custodial sentence decreased by three-quarters from 1981 to 1999, from 
240 to 69 incarcerations per 1,000 offenders. The probability of a 
homicide offender receiving a custodial sentence showed no clear trend 
over time. The probability of custody per 1,000 offenders decreased over 
time markedly for burglary (-.75), vehicle theft (r = -.79), robbery 
(-.89), and rape (-.96).

Probability of custody after a conviction

The probability of receiving a custodial sentence after a conviction for
residential burglary did not increase markedly between 1981 and 1993
(42%) but then increased to 62% in 1999. The probability of custody
following a conviction for vehicle theft decreased from 25% in 1981 to
14% in 1991, but then increased to about 30% in 1995-99. The probability
of custody after a conviction for robbery decreased between 1987 (79%)
and 1995 (67%) but generally stayed around the 70% level. The
probability of custody after a conviction for assault stayed tolerably
constant from 1981 to 1993 at less than 20% but then increased to about
28% in 1995-99. The probability of custody after a conviction for rape was
always very high. The probability of custody after a conviction for murder
or manslaughter was also very high. 
    
The probability of custody after a conviction increased over time for
burglary (r = .60), assault (r =.80), rape (r = .65) and homicide 
(r = .70)and decreased over time for robbery (r = -.60). For vehicle 
theft this probability decreased in 1981-93 (r = -.69) but increased in
1993-99 (r = .70).
    
The decreases in the probability of custody in 1987-91 could have been
caused by Home Office pronouncements encouraging judges and
magistrates to avoid sending offenders to prison as far as possible,
especially for nonviolent offenses such as burglary and vehicle theft
(Home Office 1988a, 1990a). Also, the downgrading of the offense of
unauthorized taking of a motor vehicle to a nonindictable offense (in the
Criminal Justice Act 1988) encouraged sentencers to treat it as a
relatively trivial offense and to use non-custodial penalties. The Criminal
Justice Act 1991, implemented on October 1, 1992, discouraged the use
of custody for nonviolent offenses, generally prevented sentencers from
taking account of previous convictions or of more than two current
offenses, required that persons age 17 should be dealt with as juveniles
rather than as adults, and reduced maximum prison sentences for
nonresidential burglary and theft. 

Wilson (1997) argued that up to and including this Act (which greatly
reduced the ability of sentencers to pass custodial sentences) Home
Office policy makers were primarily concerned with minimizing or
(preferably) reducing the prison population. However, the 1991 Act also
greatly reduced the use of suspended prison sentences (requiring that
they could only be given in exceptional circumstances), and this 
arguably might have led to an increase in (unsuspended)prison sentences.

Home Office policy changed in May 1993 when Michael Howard became
Home Secretary. Insisting that "prison works" he encouraged judges and
magistrates to make more use of custodial sentences and introduced
new laws to facilitate this. For example, the Criminal Justice Act 1993
repealed the provisions in the Criminal Justice Act 1991 that prevented
sentencers from taking into account previous convictions or more than
two current offenses (with effect from August 16, 1993) and doubled the
maximum custodial sentence for persons age 15 to 17 from 1 year to 2
years (from February 3, 1995). 

As mentioned above the Crime (Sentences) Act 1997, implemented on 
October 1, 1997, required an automatic life sentence (unless there 
were exceptional circumstances) for a person age 18 or older convicted 
for the second time for a serious violent or sexual offense (including 
homicide, rape, assault causing grievous bodily harm and robbery 
involving the use of real or imitation firearms). In addition, it 
required a minimum sentence of 3 years imprisonment (unless there were
exceptional circumstances)for a third conviction for residential 
burglary; however, as all three of these convictions had to occur 
after December 1, 1999, no offenders were affected by this in 1999. 

Percentage of sentence served in custody

The percentage of a burglary sentence that was served in custody
decreased from 58% in 1981 to 44% in 1987 and then stayed constant
up to 1997, before increasing to 53% in 1999. Similarly, the percentage
of a vehicle theft sentence that was served in custody decreased from
60% in 1981 to 44% in 1987 and then stayed constant up to 1997 before
increasing to 51% in 1999. The percentage of an assault sentence that
was served in custody decreased from 56% in 1981 to 46% in 1987 and
then stayed constant up to 1997 before increasing to 52% in 1999. In
contrast, the percentage of a robbery sentence that was served in
custody stayed constant from 1981 to 1997 (mean 49%) before
increasing to 58% in 1999 Similarly, the percentage of a homicide
sentence that was served in custody stayed constant from 1981 to 1997
(mean 45%) before increasing to 58% in 1999. The percentage of a rape
sentence that was served in custody stayed constant from 1981 to 1993
(mean 51%) but then increased to 64% in 1999. The percentage of a
sentence that was served increased over time for robbery, rape and
homicide, and decreased over time for burglary, vehicle theft and 
assault.

The decreases in the 1980's in the percentages of sentences served in
custody might be attributed to two changes designed to limit the prison
population. In 1981 a prisoner became eligible for parole after serving
one- third of the sentence and generally had to be released after serving
two-thirds (unless the person behaved badly in prison). The minimum
time that had to be served before a prisoner became eligible for parole
was 12 months, and prisoners were typically paroled for the last 8 months
or so of their sentences. In July 1984, the minimum time that had to be
served before parole eligibility was decreased from 12 to 6 months, and
a near-automatic parole system was introduced for short-sentence
inmates (Home Office 1988b, p.4). 

In August 1987 the amount of remission for sentences of 12 months or
less was increased from one-third to one-half, causing an immediate
mass release of about 3,500 prisoners (Home Office 1989, p.19). The
Criminal Justice Act 1991 introduced the present system on October 1,
1992. All prisoners serving under 4 years are automatically released 
after serving half their sentences, while prisoners serving 4 years or 
more become eligible for release on parole after serving half their 
sentences and must be released after serving two-thirds (unless they 
behave badly in prison).

Average sentence length

The average length of custodial sentences for burglary increased
irregularly, from 10.9 months in 1981 to 19.3 months in 1999. The
average sentence length for vehicle theft showed no clear trend over
time, although it was lowest in 1991. The average sentence length for
robbery increased from 27 months in 1981 to 41 months in 1991, and
then stayed tolerably constant. The average sentence length for assault
increased from 10.8 months in 1981 to 17.8 months in 1991, but then
decreased to 14.0 months in 1999. The average sentence length for rape
almost doubled, from 40 months in 1981 to 77 months in 1999. The
average sentence length for homicide increased from 155 months (12.9
years) in 1981 to 217 months (18.1 years) in 1991 and then stayed
tolerably constant until decreasing to 180 months (15 years) in 1999.
However, because of life sentences, the estimation of sentence length 
for homicide cases is problematic (see above). The average sentence 
length increased markedly over time for all offenses except vehicle 
theft. 

Average time served

The average time served in custody after sentence for burglary increased
irregularly, from 6.3 months in 1981 to 10.2 months in 1999. The average
time served for vehicle theft decreased from 4.8 months in 1981 to 2.8
months in 1991, but then increased to 4.2 months in 1999. The average
time served for robbery increased irregularly from 13 months in 1981 to
23 months in 1999. The average time served for assault peaked in 1991
at 8.2 months but otherwise stayed tolerably constant. The average time
served for rape more than doubled, from 20 months in 1981 to 49 months
in 1999. The average time served for homicide increased from 69 months
(5.8 years) in 1981 to 105 months (8.8 years) in 1993, but then stayed
tolerably constant. The average time served increased markedly over
time for all offenses except vehicle theft. The average time served
decreased over time for vehicle theft (r = -.57). The average time 
served for vehicle theft decreased in 1981-1993 (r = -.96) but increased 
in 1993-1999 (r = .97).

There were two main reasons why the average time served and average
sentence length for homicide increased in England. First, the number of
murder convictions (carrying a mandatory life sentence) increased,
whereas the number of manslaughter (including infanticide) convictions
stayed constant. For example, in 1981, 126 offenders were convicted for
murder and 262 for manslaughter, whereas in 1999 252 offenders were
convicted for murder and 264 for manslaughter. Second, the average
time served by life-sentence prisoners increased, from 126 months in
1981 to 160 months in 1999.

Average time served per conviction

The average time served per conviction for burglary increased slightly 
up to 1993 but then increased considerably, from 91 days in 1993 to 192
days in 1999. The average time served per conviction for vehicle theft
decreased from 37 days in 1981 to 12 days in 1991, but then increased
back to 37 days in 1999. The average time served per conviction for
robbery increased from 293 days in 1981 to 434 days in 1991, and then
stayed tolerably constant up to 1997 before increasing to 508 days in
1999. The average number of days served per conviction for assault
almost tripled, from 24 in 1981 to 66 in 1999. The average number of
days served per conviction for rape increased similarly, from 545 (18
months) in 1981 to 1,438 (47 months) in 1999. The average number of
days served per conviction for homicide increased substantially, from
1,770 (58 months) in 1981 to 2,927 (96 months) in 1999.

The average days served per conviction increased markedly over time for
all offenses except vehicle theft. For vehicle theft the average days
served per conviction decreased markedly in 1981-93 (r = -.88) and
increased markedly in 1993-99 (r = .96).

Average time served per offender

The average days served per burglary offender decreased from 1.3 in
1981 to 0.5 in 1993, but then increased to 1.4 in 1999. The average days
served per vehicle thief collapsed from 1.9 in 1981 to 0.2 in 1991, but
then increased to 0.6 in 1999. The average days served per robber
increased from 2.9 in 1981 to 4.5 in 1991, but then decreased back to 2.9
in 1999. The average days served per assaulter fluctuated considerably
over time, with the lowest figure in 1995 (0.7) and the highest in 19991`.
The average days served per rapist decreased from 148 in 1981 to 94 in
1993, but then showed no clear trend. The average days served per
homicide offender increased from 1,117 (37 months) in 1981 to 1,841 (60
months) in 1999. 

The number of days served per offender decreased markedly over time
for vehicle theft (r = -.79) and rape (r = -.69), while it increased 
markedly for homicide (r = .89). The number of days served per offender 
for burglary and vehicle theft decreased markedly in 1981-93 and 
increased markedly in 1993-99.

Explaining the results
    
According to the BCS serious property crimes (residential burglary and
vehicle theft) increased markedly up to 1993 and then decreased
markedly. Very similar trends were seen for police-recorded residential
burglary and vehicle theft. According to the BCS assault increased
markedly up to 1995 and then decreased, while in police-recorded
crimes, assault increased up to 1997 and then decreased. In contrast,
robbery increased steadily in the BCS and in police records during the
whole period from 1981 to 1999. What hypotheses might be proposed
and tested to explain these crime trends?

It is extremely difficult to test explanations of changes in national 
crime rates over time. This is because of the difficulty of controlling
statistically for all possible influences on crime rates. A great deal is
known about risk factors for offending by individuals, which include
individual factors such as impulsivity and low intelligence, family 
factors such as antisocial parents, poor parental supervision, large 
family size and disrupted families, socioeconomic factors such as low 
family income and unemployment, delinquent peers, high delinquency-rate
schools, criminal areas and criminal opportunities (for example, 
Farrington, 1998, 1999). Little is known about differential effects of 
these factors on different types of crimes, because of the prevailing 
belief that offending is primarily versatile. Nevertheless, it is 
possible in studies based on individuals to control for numerous 
explanatory variables and to determine the time ordering of different
explanatory variables and offending.

In studies based on countries, many risk factors (for example, impulsivity,
parental supervision) are not measured repeatedly at the national level.
Even where there are repeated national data on a risk factor (such as
unemployment), the method of measurement may change over time,
and the national variable, for example the claimant count, may not
accurately reflect the theoretical construct of unemployment. There are
also great problems of causal lag and causal order caused by the
(usually) annual data. After what time lag, for example, is an increase in
the unemployment rate likely to cause an increase in the crime rate? If
the time lag was short, such as 1 month, then it would not be reasonable
to investigate how far the unemployment rate in one year predicted the
crime rate in the next year. On the other hand, if the unemployment rate
in one year is used to predict the crime rate in the same year, this raises
problems of causal order. 

In general, changes in survey crime rates were highly correlated with
changes in recorded crime rates. Survey and recorded crime rates
correlated .91 for burglary, .97 for vehicle theft, .94 for robbery and 
.67 for assault. The correlation was lower for assault because the survey 
rate showed a greater decrease after 1995; between 1981 and 1995, the
correlation for assault was .88 (Langan and Farrington 1998, p.13).
Survey crime rates are generally considered to be more accurate.

Since most crimes tended to increase over time, changes in most crimes
tended to be correlated. The lowest correlations were between survey
vehicle theft and survey robbery (r = -.03) and between survey vehicle
theft and recorded rape (r = .10), because the survey vehicle theft rate
decreased substantially after 1993.

In recent years the most important attempts to explain and predict
changes in (recorded) crime rates in England have been carried out by
economists interested in the relationship between crime and economic
prosperity. For the period 1950-87 Field (1990) found that year-to-year
changes in burglary, robbery, and theft of vehicles were negatively
correlated with year-to-year changes in personal consumption (the
average personal expenditure per capita, adjusted for inflation). However,
year-to-year changes in violence and sex crime rates were positively
correlated with year-to-year changes in personal consumption.

Field (1990) concluded that personal consumption was a more important
correlate of crime than were the unemployment rate or the Gross
Domestic Product (the value of all goods and services produced in the
U.K. economy for final consumption) per capita, adjusted for inflation.
Personal consumption comprises about half of GDP; the remainder is
government expenditure, investment by firms and net exports. At the 
time this research was carried out, the Conservative government were
extremely concerned to deny that there was any relationship between
increases in unemployment and increases in crime.

In attempting to explain these results, Field (1990) suggested that
increases in prosperity meant that people in marginal economic groups
were better able to obtain income legitimately and hence had less need
to commit property crimes in order to obtain income. However, increases
in prosperity also meant that people in marginal economic groups went
out more and drank more alcohol, both of which led to increases in
violence and sex crimes. Indeed he showed that year-to-year increases
in the amount of beer consumed were significantly positively related to
year-to-year increases in the rate of violent crime.

Surprisingly, Field (1990) found that the year-to-year changes in burglary
and robbery were positively related to year-to-year changes in personal
consumption 2-3 years before. He therefore suggested that the initial
negative effect of changes in prosperity on changes in property crime
was followed by a "bounce back" 2-3 years later. Over 5-year periods, the
growth in personal consumption was not at all correlated with the growth
in property crime. However, changes in personal consumption 2 to 3
years before were still positively associated with changes in violence and
sex crimes. The short-term effects of increasing prosperity were similar
to the longer-term effects of increasing prosperity for violent crime 
(unlike property crime).

Field (1990) also found that year-to-year increases in the number of
young males (age 10 to 29) were positively related to year-to-year
increases in all crimes except robbery. Increases in police strength 
were negatively related to increases in theft of vehicles and sex 
offenses, and positively related to increases in violence. Increases 
in the police clearance rate in one year predicted decreases in 
violence and theft of vehicles in the next year. Increases in car 
ownership correlated with increases in theft of vehicles, and increased
unemployment in one year predicted increased violence in the next year.

Pyle and Deadman (1994) attempted to replicate Field's conclusions on
property crime (including burglary and robbery) using data that they
collected from 1946 to 1991. They concluded that personal consumption
and GDP (negatively related to changes in crime) and unemployment
(positively related to changes in crime) were essentially interchangeable.
They also found that decreases in the conviction rate per recorded
offense were correlated with increasing crime rates. 

Using Pyle and Deadman's (1994) dataset, Hale (1998) aimed to predict
both year-to-year changes in crime rates and long-term levels of crime.
In agreement with Field (1990), Hale found that year-to-year changes in
burglary were negatively related to changes in personal consumption, as
well as to police numbers and conviction rates per recorded offense.
However, year-to-year changes in robbery were positively related to
changes in personal consumption in the previous year, and to changes
in the unemployment rate, and negatively related to changes in police
numbers. Long-term burglary and robbery levels were positively related
to personal consumption; all were increasing over this time period.

There have been several other studies of crime and the business cycle
in England. For 1988-96 Witt and his colleagues (1999) found that
year-to-year changes in burglary and vehicle crime were positively
correlated with year-to-year changes in the unemployment rate and in 
the number of cars per capita, and negatively related to the number of 
police per capita in the previous year. Dhiri and his colleagues (1999) 
found that long-term trends in burglary were positively correlated with
personal consumption and with the number of young males in the population.

Correlations between survey and recorded crime rates and previously
identified key indicators (per capita) are given: number of young males
in the population, number of males unemployed, personal consumption
(consumer expenditure), GDP, beer consumption, number of vehicles,
and police strength. Personal consumption and GDP were adjusted for
inflation. In addition, correlations between crime rates and the
year-to-year change in GDP are shown. All the prior studies were based
on recorded crime rates, but survey crime rates are arguably more
accurate. We did not attempt to do any complex econometric analyses.
The data were obtained from the Office of National Statistics (2000b,
2001).

We focus especially on correlations greater than about .5. Crime rates
were negatively correlated with the percentage of the population who
were young males. The unemployment rate was positively correlated with
burglary and vehicle theft rates but weakly correlated with the other four
types of crimes. Inflation-adjusted personal consumption (consumer
expenditure) per capita was positively correlated with all types of crimes
except survey vehicle theft and recorded burglary and vehicle theft. The
inflation-adjusted GDP per capita was positively correlated with all types
of crimes except survey vehicle theft. In general, personal consumption
and the GDP per capita tended to increase over time, whereas survey
vehicle theft increased a great deal and then decreased a great deal. The
year-to-year change in GDP was generally weakly related to crime rates;
it was most strongly related to survey vehicle theft (r = .50).

Beer consumption per capita was negatively related to all types of crimes.
It was least strongly correlated with survey vehicle theft (r = -.27). The
number of vehicles per capita was least strongly correlated with vehicle
theft (r = .21) but positively correlated with all other types of crimes. 
In general, the number of vehicles per capita increased steadily over time,
and so it was positively correlated with types of crimes that increased
steadily over time. Finally, police strength per capita was most strongly
correlated (positively) with burglary and vehicle theft, and not strongly
related to the other four types of crimes.

In most cases these results are not as expected. Contrary to expectation,
survey crime rates did not increase as the number of young males
increased, did not increase as beer consumption increased, and did not
decrease as police strength increased. There was no evidence that
increasing prosperity caused any decrease in crime, and vehicle theft 
did not increase with the number of vehicles available to be stolen. 
The most expected result is that burglary and vehicle theft increased 
as the unemployment rate increased.

Previous publications (Farrington and Langan, 1992; Farrington and
Wikstrm, 1993; Farrington, Langan, and Wikstrm 1994; Langan and
Farrington, 1998) investigated correlations between changes in crime
rates and changes in the probability and severity of legal punishment. 
Of course, it must be realized that these correlations are based on 
only a few years (8 for survey crimes and 19 for recorded crimes in this
chapter)and that correlation does not necessarily indicate causation. 
This report shows correlations between the survey crime rate and different
measures of the probability and severity of legal punishment; similar
correlations are presented for recorded crime rates. We believe that our
measures of the probability of punishment (for example, the number of
convictions per 1,000 offenders) are more accurate than those used 
previously for example, the ratio of the number of convictions to the 
number of recorded crimes).

The percentage of crimes reported and the probability of recording a
reported crime were not consistently related to survey crime rates. Nor
was the conviction rate per capita, which was positively related to
robbery, rape, and homicide but negatively related to burglary, vehicle
theft, and assault. However, the number of convictions per 1,000
offenders was highly negatively related to all types of survey and
recorded crimes. The lowest correlation was with homicide (r = -.43).

The custody rate per capita and the probability of custody following a
conviction were not consistently related to survey or recorded crime
rates. However, the custody rate per 1,000 offenders was highly
negatively correlated with all four survey crimes and with four of 
the six recorded crimes.

The average sentence length average time served and percentage of
sentence served in custody were not consistently related to survey or
recorded crime rates. Nor was the average number of days served per
conviction. However, the average number of days served per offender
was highly negatively correlated with all four survey crimes and with 
three of the six recorded crimes.

It seems clear that the number of convictions per 1,000 offenders was
most consistently (negatively) related to survey and recorded crime 
rates. The results obtained with the custody rate per 1,000 offenders 
and the average number of days served per offender are probably 
consequences of the fact that both measures are a function of the 
number of convictions per 1,000 offenders.

Correlations between survey crime rates and the number of convictions
per 1,000 offenders might be considered problematic because the
number of convictions per 1,000 offenders is not independent of the
number of survey crimes. Nevertheless, it is not necessarily true that
these two measures must be negatively correlated. If the number of
survey crimes increased by 10%, for example, the number of convictions
per 1,000 offenders could decrease by 10% (if the number of convictions
stayed constant), stay constant (if the number of convictions increased
by 10%) or increase by 10% (if the number of convictions increased by
20%). The recorded crime rate is logically independent of the number of
convictions per 1,000 offenders, although of course survey and recorded
crime rates are correlated.

If the probability of being convicted influences the behavior of potential
offenders, the number of convictions per 1,000 offenders should predict
the crime rate rather than the reverse. "Conviction Rate/Offense A"
indicates predictive correlations with the crime rate in one year predicting
the number of convictions per 1,000 offenders in the next year ("crime
first"). "Conviction Rate/Offense B" indicates predictive correlations with
the number of convictions per 1,000 offenders in one year predicting the
crime rate in the next year ("crime second").

For all four correlations with survey crime rates, the negative correlations
between convictions and crimes were greater for crimes predicting
convictions rather than for the reverse. For recorded crime rates, this 
was true for burglary, vehicle theft and robbery but not for assault. The
"crime first" and "crime second" correlations were very similar for assault
and negligible for homicide. These results suggest either that changes in 
the probability of punishment have a quick effect (in less than one year) 
on the crime rate or that they do not have a deterrent effect.

Correlations exist between survey and recorded crime rates and the
custody rate per 1,000 offenders and the number of days served per
offender for the "crime first" (A) and "crime second" (B) conditions. 
In 20 tests negative correlations were higher in the "crime first" (A)
condition in 7 cases, lower in 5 cases, and similar (differing by .04 
or less) in 4. In the other four cases neither correlation was highly 
negative as predicted.  Therefore, there was no consistent tendency 
for the probability of punishment in one year to predict the crime rate 
in the next year more than the reverse.

It is very unlikely that any single factor will explain changes in crime 
rates over time. Different factors may influence different types of crimes 
in different time periods, possibly depending on the magnitude of change
in the explanatory factor. Large changes in short time periods might be
expected to have greater effects. For example, the dramatic decrease in
the probability of conviction for vehicle theft (from 52 convictions per
1,000 offenders in 1981 to only 12 in 1993) might be expected to have a
relatively large effect on vehicle theft. However, negative correlations
between the probability of conviction and the crime rate were less for
vehicle theft than for burglary, robbery, or assault.

In conclusion, this chapter presents basic data on crime rates and
punishment rates that needs to be explained by criminological theories.
The correlations reported in this section are thought-provoking but do 
not provide a convincing explanation of the crime trends. They do not 
prove convincingly that either the probability or the severity of legal
punishment have a deterrent effect. Nor do they prove any causal effects 
of prosperity or the age structure of the population on crime rates.

In order to obtain better data, offenders should be tracked longitudinally
through the criminal justice system. Better data is especially needed on
the crucial measure of the average number of offenders per offense,
which is needed to link up offenses and offenders. In future, it would be
desirable to expand these analyses to more stages of the criminal justice
system (for example, arrest and prosecution). More research is needed
especially to explain why residential burglary and vehicle theft increased
so much in 1981-1993, then decreased so much in 1993-1999.

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Acknowledgment

The authors are very grateful to Maureen Brown for efficient word
processing. They are also grateful to Margaret Ayres, Gordon Barclay,
Tracey Budd, Billy Burns, Patrick Collier, LizAnne Dowds, Graham
Kinshott, Duncan Lavin, Joanna Mattinson, Pat Mayhew, Catriona
Mirrlees-Black, Chris Nuttall, Andrew Percy, Roger Stevens, David
Thomas, and others from the Home Office for providing helpful
information over the years.

Authors

David P. Farrington, O.B.E. (Officer of the British Empire) 
(see page xiv of the Introduction for biographical profile).

Darrick Jolliffe (see page xiv of the Introduction for 
biographical profile).

United States

Goal

This chapter describes trends in crime in the United States between 
1981 and 1999, and trends in justice system performance between 
1981 and 1996, and explores possible explanations for them. Six 
offenses are investigated: residential burglary, motor vehicle theft, 
robbery, serious assault, rape, and homicide.

The term "trends in crime" means trends based on two distinctly
different ways of measuring the volume of crime in the United
States:

trends in "survey" crime rates for four offenses 
(robbery, assault, residential burglary, motor 
vehicle theft), so called because they are based 
on victim surveys

trends in police-recorded crime rates for six 
offenses (homicide, rape, robbery, assault, 
residential burglary, motor vehicle theft)

"Trends in justice system performance" is defined by 13 different 
measures that capture the movement of persons into and out of the 
justice system. Five of the 13 can be thought of as measures of 
"risk of punishment," and 4 can be thought of as measures of 
"punishment severity":

Risk of punishment measures

trends in arrest rate per 1,000 offenders

trends in conviction rate per 1,000 arrested offenders

trends in conviction rate per 1,000 offenders

trends in custody rate per 1,000 offenders

trends in days served per offender

Severity of punishment measures trends in percent custody per
conviction

trends in average sentence length

trends in average time served

trends in percent of time served

Other measures

trends in percent of crimes reported to police

trends in percent recorded of reported

trends in conviction rate per 1,000 population

trends in custody rate per 1,000 population

These 13 justice system performance measures were selected for a 
combination of reasons: national statistics are available to 
compute them; relatively speaking, they are frequently available 
in other countries, making international comparisons possible; 
together they provide a fairly comprehensive overview of the 
functioning of the justice system.

The rationale for selecting particular years for study was similar:
the selected years are ones for which the needed national data
exist; and other countries have comparable data for these years or 
for years close to them.

United States

Description

The United States is an ethnically diverse country, with a 1999
resident population of 272.7 million. Between 1981 and 1999 the
U.S. population grew by 19%, in part due to large increases in
immigration. Over that period non-whites went from 14% to 18%
of the total population, and Hispanics' share went from 6% to
11%. By 2010 Hispanics are expected to outnumber blacks and
become the Nation's largest minority. By 2050 Hispanics are
expected to comprise a fourth of the U.S. population.

Life expectancy continues to rise in the United States. A person
born in 1981 had a life expectancy of 74 years; one born in 1999,
76 years. The population of the United States is aging. Median
age rose from 30 years in 1981 to 36 in 1999. Persons in the
high crime-prone age category -- ages 13 to 24 -- are a
declining percentage of the population: 27% in 1981 versus 20%
in 1999.

Marital status of the population has changed since 1981. Divorced 
persons made up 6% of the population ages 18 years and over in 1981, 
and 10% in 1999. Never-married persons went from 20% to 24%. Births 
to unmarried women made up a growing share of all births in the 
United States from 1981 to 1999, going from 18% to about 32% of the 
total. Also during this period the abortion rate generally fell. In 
1981 the rate per 1,000 women 15 to 44 years of age was 29, compared 
to about 23 in 1999.

Educational attainment in the United States continues to rise. In
1981 16% of persons 25 years old and over had completed 4 years 
of college or more, compared to about 25% in 1999. Over the study 
period the unemployment rate generally fell, from 7.6% in 1981,to 
4.2% in 1999, while no particular trend was evident in the poverty 
rate: 11% below the poverty level in 1981 and about that same 
percentage in 1999.

The criminal justice system

The United States is made up of 50 States and thousands of cities 
and counties within those States. The vast majority of these cities 
and counties have their own criminal justice system, and each of
the 50 States has its own justice system. In addition there is a 
Federal government that also has its own justice system. What this 
all means is that, by and large, each city and county, each State, 
and the Federal government has its own police, its own prosecutors, 
and its own courts, and, less commonly, its own correctional 
agencies and its own laws.  No one level of government has overall
responsibility for justice administration. 

The Federal government does try to encourage conformity to
certain standards among the many thousands of police agencies, 
prosecutors, courts, and correctional agencies that together 
make up the criminal justice system in the United States. But 
the Federal government's authority is severely limited. For 
example, it cannot stop a State from, say, releasing prisoners 
before they have served at least 85% of their sentence. But the 
Federal government can and does offer financial incentives to 
States for keeping prisoners confined until they have served 85%.

If all criminal justice in the United States were administered by 
a national criminal justice system, governed by a single set of
national laws, one of the chapter's aims -- to investigate
changes over the study period in justice system performance by
possible reference to changes in the law -- would be manageable. 
But when there are least 51 governing sets of laws (the laws of 
each of the 50 States plus Federal law), identifying significant 
legal changes and specifying when they went into effect become 
too formidable an undertaking for this chapter.  The situation 
in other countries is quite different. In them a change in the 
justice system -- for example, courts imposing longer 
sentences -- can sometimes be directly tied to a particular change 
in the law.

The United States is different from certain countries in another
important respect. U.S. citizens have many more opportunities
than citizens elsewhere to influence criminal justice policy by
voting into office people who share their beliefs and opinions,
and voting out of office those who do not share them. Their votes
decide such matters as who, in their city or county for the next 4
years, will be the sheriff, the chief of police, the prosecutor, the
clerk of the court, and the judge; who, in their State for the next
4 years, will be the governor, the attorney general, and their
representatives to the State legislature; and who, for the near
future, will be their President and their representatives to the
Federal legislature.

Depending on the circumstances, a person charged in the United
States with a serious crime can be prosecuted in a State court,
a Federal court, or a juvenile court. U.S. Federal courts treat
persons 18 years of age and older as adults. In the vast majority
of States, a defendant is considered an adult once he or she
reaches the age of 18; in a small number of States, age 17 is the
beginning of adulthood; in a few States it is age 16. A juvenile
charged with or previously found delinquent of a serious crime
can be prosecuted in the adult court rather than the juvenile
court. State and Federal laws define special circumstances in
which adult prosecution of a juvenile is automatic (for example,
a juvenile charged with murder, rape, or armed robbery), and
circumstances in which such prosecution is at the discretion of
either the juvenile court or the prosecutor. 

Custody sentences imposed in juvenile courts and adult State
courts are often "indeterminate." In imposing an indeterminate
sentence, the judge sets the maximum sentence length the
offender can be confined before being released. A parole board
or statute dictates when an adult offender is to be released; a
juvenile court or administrative agency decides this for a juvenile
offender. Before 1987 sentences imposed in Federal courts were
indeterminate. Juveniles and adults receiving custody sentences
are physically housed in separate institutions.

Prior research

This chapter is a continuation of three prior studies by the
author.

1. A 1992 study (Farrington and Langan, 1992) compared the
United States and England (including Wales) in terms of crime
rates, numbers of persons committing crime, numbers of crimes
coming to the attention of the justice system (number reported
to police, number recorded by police), numbers of offenders
reaching certain major stages of the justice system (number
convicted, number sentenced to custody), average sentence
length, and average time served. The numbers were estimated
for 2 years in the United States (1981 and 1986) and 2 years in
England (1981 and 1987).

2. In a 1994 study (Farrington, Langan and Wikstrm, 1994),
the figures were also estimated for 2 years in the United
States (1981 and 1990) and 2 years in England (including
Wales)(1981 and 1991). In addition, the 1994 study included
data for 2 years in Sweden (1981 and 1991).

3. A 1998 study (Langan and Farrington, 1998) compared
trends in crime and justice between the United States and
England (including Wales). To describe English crime trends
based on victimization surveys, the 1998 report assembled
data for 6 years (1981, 1983, 1987, 1991, 1993, and 1995),
and to describe English crime trends based on police records
it used data for all 16 years from 1981 to 1996. To describe
English justice trends, the 1998 report used data for 6 years
(1981, 1983, 1987, 1991, 1993, and 1995). U.S. crime trends
from victimization surveys and police records were based on
all 16 years from 1981 to 1996. U.S. trends in justice
administration were calculated for 7 years (1981, 1983, 1986,
1988, 1990, 1992, and 1994).

This chapter revises certain statistics from the 1998 study
(Langan and Farrington, 1998). The changes are to 1995 and
1996 figures from both the National Crime Victimization Survey
(NCVS) and the FBI database on police-recorded crime. Another
change is that all burglary statistics in this chapter pertain 
to residential burglary (as distinct from commercial burglary), 
to make U.S. burglary numbers more comparable to those in other
countries. 

This chapter also corrects all justice system performance
measures (all years) published in the 1998 study that mistakenly
used in their calculation "completed" NCVS motor vehicle theft
estimates rather than estimates for completed and attempted
combined. Furthermore, this chapter adds 1997, 1998, and 1999
to the data on U.S. crime trends, and 1996 to the data on U.S.
justice trends. With the additions, the crime trend data cover 19
years (each year from 1981 through 1999), and the justice trend
data cover 8 years (1981, 1983, 1986, 1988, 1990, 1992, 1994,
and 1996).

Methodology

Performance measure trends from 
non-tracking data

Three of the performance measures are based on databases
that track individuals across stages of the justice system:
trends in percent of crimes reported to police, in percent
custody per conviction, and in average sentence length.
Trends for the other 10 performance measures are not based
on data tracking individuals. 

When justice system performance measures could not be constructed 
from a database that tracked individuals, procedures were adopted 
to derive the needed statistics (percentages or probabilities or 
averages) from separate databases. "Trends in conviction rate per 
1,000 offenders" is an example. To illustrate, 6.8 million persons 
committed residential burglary in 1996, according to an estimate 
derived from a national database of 1996 crime victims; and 
approximately 109,000 persons were convicted of residential 
burglary in 1996, according to an analysis that combined 1996 
state, federal, and juvenile convictions from three national 
databases. 

These results suggest that about 1.6% of persons who committed a 
residential burglary in 1996 were convicted (since 109,000 / 6.8 
million = 1.6%). The percentage does not come from tracking the 
same individuals from the time they commit a crime to the time 
they enter the justice system. Rather, it comes from comparing 
two statistical aggregates: the number of persons who committed 
a residential burglary in 1996, versus the number convicted of a 
residential burglary that year. Because such comparisons are 
always imprecise (for example, the 6.8 million double counts 
people who committed more than one burglary in 1996), and because 
the comparisons do not always refer to the same individuals (for 
example, some of the burglaries that people were convicted of in 
1996 were committed in 1995), the figures (percentages or 
probabilities or averages)derived from them are said to 
"approximate" true figures. Moreover, derived figures presented 
as "rates" and "percentages" are more accurately described as 
"ratios."

Crime definitions

Unless indicated otherwise, crime trends and trends in justice
system performance described in this chapter are based on the 
following crime definitions:

homicide the willful killing of one human being by another
without legal justification. Includes murder, nonnegligent
manslaughter, and voluntary manslaughter. Does not include
attempted murder or any other form of attempted homicide not
resulting in death, and does not include negligent homicide or
justifiable homicide. rape  forcible intercourse (vaginal, 
anal, or oral) with a female against her will. Includes 
attempts.

robbery the unlawful taking of property that is in the immediate
possession of another, by force or the threat of force. Includes
commercial robberies. Includes attempts.

assault (1) intentionally and without legal justification causing
serious bodily injury or (2) using a deadly weapon to threaten or
attempt bodily injury. Includes attempted murder and other forms
of attempted serious assault. Excludes minor assaults (assaults
that did not involve a deadly weapon but did involve minor injury).

residential burglary the unlawful entry of a fixed structure used
for regular residence, with or without the use of force, to commit
a felony or theft. Excludes trespassing or unlawful entry where
intent is not known or cannot be inferred. Also excludes
possession of burglary tools. Excludes commercial burglaries.
Includes attempts.

motor vehicle theft the unlawful taking of a self-propelled road
vehicle. Includes the theft of automobiles, trucks, and
motorcycles, but not the theft of boats, aircraft, or farm
equipment. Also includes receiving, possessing, stripping,
transporting, and reselling stolen vehicles, and unauthorized
use of a vehicle (joyriding). Includes thefts of commercial
vehicles. Includes attempts.

There are no major departures from these crime definitions in
the study's  13 measures of trends in justice performance. There
are also no major departures in the study's measures of trends
in crime rates from police records. 

The most notable departures are in the study's measures of
trends in crime rates from victim surveys. Businesses (including
organizations, government offices, and military barracks),
institutionalized persons (including prisoners), and persons
under the age of 12 are not surveyed. Consequently, robbery
and assault rates from the victim surveys do not include in their
calculation robberies and assaults of institutionalized persons
and persons under 12; and robbery and vehicle theft rates from
the victim surveys do not include in their calculation robberies
and vehicle thefts of businesses.

Comparability

This section discusses eight issues of 
comparability.  

1. Five of the measures of justice performance trends -- 1)
percent recorded of reported, 2) arrest rate per 1,000 offenders,
3) conviction rate per 1,000 offenders, 4) incarceration rate per
1,000 offenders, 5) days served per offender -- use in their
calculation a combination of data from victim surveys and
separate data pertaining to a stage of the justice system.
Because certain crime categories excluded from victim survey
data are included in the justice system data, the victim survey
data had to be corrected, to the extent possible, for the excluded
categories to achieve comparability (excluded categories are
identified immediately above). For example, in measuring trends
in the probability of a robber being convicted, the number of
persons committing robbery as estimated from the victim surveys 
was adjusted upward to correct for the absence of business 
robberies.

2. Undoubtedly over the study period federal and state
lawmakers made changes to the legal definitions of the study's
six crimes. However, none of these changes are known to be
major. Consequently, none of the trends described in this
chapter can be attributed to changes in legal definitions.

3. Over the study period a 1992 re-design of the annual victim
survey necessitated adjustments to pre-1992 assault and burglary 
statistics to make these statistics comparable to those from the 
re-designed survey. "Adjustment ratios" applied to pre-1992 
assault and burglary numbers reduced the likelihood that crime 
trends from victim surveys could be attributed to the re-design.

4. With regard to the study's six offenses, over the study period
crime definitions used by police for statistical record keeping did
not change but evidence uncovered in this study indicates that
their crime recording practices did change, reducing the 
comparability between police-recorded crimes rates in later years 
and those in earlier years. That evidence is summarized later.

5. In 1996, a change was made in one of the national surveys --
the National Judicial Reporting Program -- used to construct
justice system performance measures for rape. Before 1996
convictions for "sexual assault" (a legal category distinct from
rape) in some States were mistakenly being coded as rape
convictions. In 1996 improved procedures were adopted to avoid
these errors. The most notable effect of the change was the
large drop in the number of rape convictions recorded in 1996.
The change affects all justice system performance measures for
rape.

6. Estimates of sentence length and time served for juveniles
used in this study were based on one method for the period
1981-94 and a different method for 1996. For 5 of the 6 study
offenses, 1996 estimates for juveniles were longer than those for
earlier years. The increases, which were slight, are presumably
due in whole to the change in method.

7. Victim survey estimates for 1981-1994 are "data-year"
estimates, while those for 1995-1999 are "collection-year"
estimates. A 1995 "collection-year" estimate, for example,
means the estimate is based entirely on interviews done in 1995.
By contrast, a 1994 "data-year" estimate means the estimate is
based entirely on crimes that took place in 1994. The switch
from data-year to collection-year estimates was done for
convenience and is thought to have had a negligible effect on
documented trends.

8. Four of the rates calculated in the study for rape -- the arrest
rate per 1,000 rapists, the conviction rate per 1,000 rapists, the
custody rate per 1,000 rapists, the number of days served per
rapist -- are not comparable to the same rates calculated for the
four offenses (robbery, assault, burglary, vehicle theft) that use
victim surveys as the source of data on the number of persons
committing the crime during the year. These rape rates are always 
higher than corresponding rates for the four offenses because the 
base for the rape rates excludes rapes not reported to police, 
while the base for the four included unreported offenses. For 
example, in 1996 the number of convictions per 1,000 offenders 
was 155 for rape and 16 for burglary, a difference that is largely
attributable to unreported rapes being excluded from the base.

Data sources for trends in survey 
crime rates

Trends in survey crime rates for robbery, assault, burglary, and
motor vehicle theft are based on an annual victim survey called
the "National Crime Victimization Survey" (NCVS) in the United
States. Calling it a "victim survey" may convey the mistaken
impression that only victims are interviewed in the survey. In 
fact, the survey involves interviews with a representative sample 
of the general population, and of the approximately 90,000 persons
interviewed each year, only a small percentage report being crime 
victims during the year.

Rand (1997) was the source of 1981-94 NCVS figures for the
number of offenses, and the population base used to calculate
survey crime rates (the number of households is the base for
residential burglary and motor vehicle theft, and the number of
persons age 12 or older is the base for robbery and assault);
Rennison (2001) was the source for 1995-99 figures.

Latest NCVS figures given in this chapter indicate that 3,651,580
residential burglaries were committed in 1999. Since there were
107,159,550 households in the United States, the burglary rate
was 34.1 per 1,000 households, or 1 in every 29 households
(disregarding repeat victims). All NCVS figures have confidence
intervals around them. The 95% confidence interval for the 1999
burglary rate is 2.388, indicating a range of from 31.7 to 36.5 
per 1,000 households. More 95% confidence intervals are shown in 
table 2.

Data sources for trends in police-recorded 
crime rates

Trends in police-recorded crime rates for all six crimes are
based on annual data compiled by the FBI from over 10,000
police agencies nationwide. The FBI (1997) was the source of
1981-94 statistics on the number of offenses and the
population base used to calculate police-recorded crime rates
(for rape, the number of females of all ages in the resident
population; for all other offenses, the number of males and
females); the FBI (2000) was the source of the 1995-99
statistics. Note that burglary figures from these sources
combined residential and commercial burglaries. To obtain a
separate residential burglary figure for each year, the
combined figure was multiplied by 67%, since (according to
the FBI)two-thirds of all burglaries are residential.

Police-recorded residential burglaries totaled 1,406,799 in 1999
(derived from FBI, 2000). Since the U.S. population totaled
272,691,000 residents in 1999 (FBI, 2000), the U.S. burglary rate
was 5.2 per 1,000 population.

Data sources for trends in percent of crimes 
reported to police

Victim surveys provided annual estimates of the percentage of
crimes that were reported to police. Rennison (2001) was the
source of 1995-99 percentages for all four crimes. Various
BJS publications were the source of 1981-94 percentages for
robbery and completed motor vehicle theft. Published
percentages for pre-1992 assault and burglary could not be
used because a 1992 re-design of the victim survey made
pre-1992 percentages less comparable to later percentages. 

To obtain comparable pre-1992 percentages, two adjustment ratios 
were calculated from separate results of the two versions of the 
survey questionnaire that were fielded in 1992: the version
that existed before the change (called the National Crime
Survey, or NCS), and the re-designed version (called the NCVS).
The step-by-step derivation of assault and residential burglary
percentages for 1981-91 is described below, using 1981 assault
as an illustration:

1. Compute the number of assault victimizations that were
reported to police according to both the 1992 NCS and 1992
NCVS. Then compute the ratio of 1992 NCVS to 1992 NCS
reported assaults, to obtain the first adjustment ratio ("A").

2. Compute the total number of assault victimizations according 
to both the 1992 NCS and 1992 NCVS. Then compute the ratio of 
1992 NCVS to 1992 NCS, to obtain the second adjustment ratio("B").

3. Compute the number of assault victimizations that were
reported to police according to the 1981 NCS ("C").

4. Multiply "C" by "A" to get the adjusted number of 1981 assaults
reported to police ("D").

5. Multiply "B" by the 1981 NCS total number of assaults to get
the 1981 adjusted number of assault victimizations ("E").

6. Divide "D" by "E" to get the adjusted percentage of 1981
assaults that were reported to police.

Adjusted 1981-91 percentages of assaults reported of police were 
6 percentage points lower than unadjusted published percentages; 
adjusted percentages of residential burglaries were 2 percentage 
points lower.

Data sources for trends in percent recorded 
of reported

The level of crime recorded in police statistics depends not only 
on how often victims (and others) report crimes to police, but also 
on how often police record as crimes those incidents that are 
reported to them. Police do not always record as a crime every 
allegation that comes to them: sometimes police find insufficient 
evidence that a crime has occurred; alleged crimes go unrecorded 
because of poor record keeping; police weed out a crime they do 
not consider to be serious or downgrade a crime to a less serious 
category. "Trends in percent recorded of reported" refers to the 
likelihood that a crime reported to police will be officially 
recorded in police statistics. These trends are calculated for 
robbery, assault, residential burglary, and motor vehicle theft.

Two figures are needed each year to compute percent recorded of 
reported: the number of crimes reported to police in the year, 
and the comparable number police recorded that year. The former 
was obtained by multiplying the number of victim survey crimes 
(the source is given above in the section "Data sources for 
trends in survey crime rates") by the percent reported to police 
(the source is given above in the section "Data sources for trends 
in percent of crimes reported to police"). The FBI was the source 
of counts of police-recorded crime (for 1981-94: FBI, 1997; for 
1995-99: FBI, 2000). To make police-recorded totals more 
comparable to reported totals, certain adjustments were made to
police-recorded totals:

1. The police-recorded robbery total was reduced by 22% to
eliminate commercial robberies (22% is the annual average
over the study period), then reduced another 2% to eliminate
robberies of persons under age 12 (Jarvis, 1994), and then
increased by 11% to convert robbery incidents into robbery
victimizations (11% is the annual average over the study
period).

2. The police-recorded assault total was reduced by 5% to
eliminate robberies of persons under age 12 (Jarvis, 1994).

3. The police-recorded burglary total was reduced by 33% to
eliminate commercial burglaries (33% is the annual average
over most of the study period).

4. The police-recorded motor vehicle theft total was reduced 
by 20% to eliminate non-completed thefts (20% is the annual
average over the study period), and then reduced by 17% to
eliminate commercial vehicle thefts (Biderman and Lynch, 1991).

To illustrate adjustment procedures, 1,800,229 residential
burglaries were reported to police in 1999, according to NCVS
data. Police recorded 2,099,700 residential and commercial
burglaries that year, according to FBI data. Eliminating the
approximately 33% that were commercial leaves 1,406,799
comparable residential burglaries. The 1,406,799 comparable
recorded number divided by the 1,800,229 residential burglaries
reported to police gives 78.1% as the likelihood in 1999 of 
police recording a burglary reported to them. 

Data sources for trends in conviction rate 
per 1,000 population

Resident U.S. population figures for the year (for 1981-94: FBI, 
1997; for 1995-99: FBI, 2000) multiplied by the percentage age 
10 and older that year (U.S. Census Bureau, 1997,) gives the 
population age 10 and older, which was used as the base for 
calculating the conviction rate for all offenses except rape. For 
rape the base was the resident male population age 10 and older, 
obtained by multiplying the population age 10 and older by 49% 
(the male percentage in the population over the study period).

The total number of convictions is needed to compute the conviction 
rate. In the United States, the total is the sum of state, federal, 
and juvenile convictions. For example, for burglary in 1994, there 
were an estimated 161,975 convictions (98,109 state; 146 federal; 
63,720 juvenile). Assuming that two-thirds were for "residential 
burglary" (the same percentage as in FBI statistics on reported 
burglaries), residential burglary convictions totaled 108,523. The 
conviction rate per 1,000 population was calculated by dividing this 
by the resident population of persons age 10 or over (since few 
persons under 10 are convicted); this was 221,890,000 in 1994 (U.S. 
Census Bureau, 1997).  Expressed per 1,000 population, the 1994 
burglary rate was 0.49 per 1,000 population; disregarding repeat 
offenders, about one in every 2,000 persons was convicted of 
burglary.

Federal convictions 1981-1996  Data on federal convictions and
sentences were obtained from the BJS Federal Justice Statistics
Program (FJSP) (for 1981-1988: BJS, 1992, 1993, table 9)(for 1990: 
Langan, Perkins and Chaiken, 1994) (for 1992: Langan, 1996)(for 
1994: Langan and Brown, 1997b) (for 1996: Brown and Langan, 
1999). 

State convictions 1986-1996  State court convictions and
sentences were obtained from the National Judicial Reporting
Program (NJRP) (for 1986: Langan, 1989) (for 1988: Langan
and Dawson, 1990) (for 1990: Langan, Perkins and Chaiken,
1994) (for 1992: Langan, 1996) (for 1994: Langan and Brown,
1997b) (for 1996: Brown, Langan and Levin, 1999). Motor
vehicle theft was not shown separately in 1986 and 1988, so 
it was estimated as 18% of larceny convictions, since 18% of
larceny convictions in 1990-94 were for motor vehicle theft. 
The number of rape convictions in 1986 was estimated using the
1988 figure because the figure from the 1986 NJRP survey was
thought to be unreliable. The rape convictions include female
offenders, but consistently 99% of convicted offenders were
male (Langan, 1989: Langan and Dawson, 1990; Langan and
Dawson, 1993; Langan and Graziadei, 1995; Langan and Brown,
1997a). 

State convictions 1981 and 1983  Since the NJRP only began
in 1986, it was necessary to back-estimate the number of
convictions in state courts in 1981 and 1983. Back-estimate
procedures are described in detail in Langan and Farrington
(1998, pp. 51-2).

Juvenile convictions 1986-96  For each of the six offenses,
national juvenile conviction totals for 1986-94 were obtained by
multiplying the national number of juveniles handled (from the
annual publication Juvenile Court Statistics) by the percentage
that were adjudicated delinquent (that is, the percentage that
were petitioned and adjudicated and recorded as having received a 
disposition other than transfer/waiver (to the adult court) or
dismissal/release). (Transferred cases were excluded to avoid 
double counting some of the state court convictions.) The source 
of the 1986-94 percentages is an unpublished tabulation from a 
database maintained by the National Center for Juvenile Justice 
(Butts, 1996). The national juvenile conviction totals for 1996 
were obtained from a special tabulation from that database 
(Snyder, 1998). To illustrate, 141,400 burglary cases were 
handled in juvenile courts in 1996, and 68,777 were adjudicated 
delinquent (Snyder, 1998).

Juvenile convictions for 1981 and 1983 Procedures for deriving the 
number of juvenile convictions for 1981 and 1983 for each of the 
six offenses are described in Langan and Farrington (1998, pp. 
52-3).

Data sources for trends in conviction rate 
per 1,000 offenders

"Trends in conviction rate per 1,000 offenders" refers to the
probability that a person who commits a particular crime (or who
allegedly commits a particular crime) will be convicted of it. For
each of the six offenses, the number of offenders committing a 
crime during the year divided by the number convicted of that crime 
that year forms the probability of an offender being convicted. The 
source for the number convicted was previously described (see above 
"Trends in the conviction rate per 1,000 population"). For murder 
and rape, the source for the number committing a crime is FBI 
counts of recorded crimes (see above "Trends in police-recorded 
crime rates"), adjusted to make them comparable to conviction 
data; for robbery, assault, burglary, and motor vehicle theft, 
the source is estimates from the victim surveys (see above 
"Trends in crime rates from victim surveys"), adjusted to make 
them comparable to conviction data. Adjustments were:

1. The number of murder victims multiplied by 1.15 (the average
number of murderers per murder according to an FBI national
database on murder victims from 1981-94) gave the total number 
of murderers.

2. The number of female rape victims multiplied by 1.2 (the
average number of rapists per rape according to 1981-94 NCVS
data) gave the total number of male rapists.

3. The number of non-business robbery victimizations of persons
ages 12 and older multiplied by 1.8 (the average number of
robbers per robbery according to 1981-94 NCVS data), then
divided by .78 (to correct for the missing 22% of robberies that
are of businesses), and then divided by .98 (to correct for the
missing 2% of all robberies that are committed against persons
under the age of 12) gave the total number of robbers.

4. The number of aggravated assault victimizations multiplied by
1.5 (the average number of assaulters per assault according to
NCVS data), and then divided by .95 (to correct for the missing
5% of all assaults that are committed against persons under the
age of 12) gave the total number of assaulters.

5. The number of residential burglary incidents multiplied by 1.5
(the average number of burglars per residential burglary according 
to 1981-94 NCVS data) gave the total number of residential burglars.

6. The number of completed motor vehicle theft incidents divided
by .65 (to correct for the missing 35% of motor vehicle thefts that
were not completed according to 1981-94 NCVS data), then multiplied 
by 1.5 (the average number of motor vehicle thefts per theft 
according to 1981-94 NCVS data), and then divided by .83(to correct 
for the missing 17% of motor vehicle thefts that are of business
establishments according to Biderman and Lynch, 1991) gave the 
total number of motor vehicle thieves.

Data sources for trends in arrest rate 
per 1,000 offenders

The arrest rate per 1,000 offenders is obtained by dividing the
nationally estimated total number of arrests of persons of all
ages during the year by the number of persons alleged to have
committed the crime that year. The source of the former is a
table published by the FBI each year in "Crime in the United
States." The source of the latter is given in the section above
titled "Data sources for trends in conviction rate per 1,000
offenders." To obtain the number of residential burglary arrests,
two-thirds of burglary arrests (the same percentage as in FBI
statistics on reported burglaries) were taken.

Data sources for trends in conviction rate 
per 1,000 arrested offenders

The conviction rate per 1,000 arrested offenders is obtained by 
taking the nationally estimated total number of arrests of persons
(all ages) convicted of a particular type of crime during the 
year and dividing it by the total number of persons (all ages) 
arrested that year for that type of crime. The source of the 
former is the section above titled "Data sources for trends in 
conviction rate per 1,000 offenders." The source of the latter 
is a table published by the FBI each year in "Crime in the 
United States."

Data sources for trends in percent 
custody per conviction

The percentage of convicted offenders receiving a custody
sentence was estimated by combining state, federal, and
juvenile figures. Data tracking individuals from conviction to
sentencing were used to calculate the likelihood of a convicted
offender receiving a custody sentence. Data sources for this
measure are identified above in "Data sources for trends in
conviction rate per 1,000 population." Both prison and jail
sentences are counted as custody sentences in the state and
federal data; out-of-home placement sentences are the custody
sentences in the juvenile sentencing data. Sources did not
provide data specifically on residential burglaries. Percent
custody for all burglaries was therefore used in place of it.

Data sources for trends in custody rate 
per 1,000 population

The source of resident U.S. population figures used as the base
for calculating the custody rate are identified above in the 
section "Trends in the conviction rate per 1,000 population."

The number of persons sentenced to custody during the year is
needed to compute the custody rate per 1,000 population. In the
United States, the total number sentenced to custody is the
number sentenced to state and federal prisons and jails plus the
number sentenced to juvenile institutions. Sources for the
number receiving a custody sentence are shown above in "Data
sources for trends in percent of convicted offenders sentenced
to custody."

Data sources for trends in custody rate 
per 1,000 offenders

"Trends in custody rate per 1,000 offenders" refers to the
likelihood that a person committing a particular crime will be
caught, convicted, and sentenced to custody for it. For each of
the six offenses, the number sentenced to custody for a crime
during the year("A") divided by the number of offenders
committing that type of crime during that year("B") forms the
probability of an offender receiving a custody sentence.
Sources for "A" are shown above in "Data sources for trends
in percent of convicted offenders sentenced to custody.
"Sources for "B" are identified above in "Data sources for
trends in conviction rate per 1,000 offenders."

Data sources for trends in average 
sentence length

"Trends in average sentence length" refers to the length of the
sentence imposed, as distinct from the amount of time actually
served. Average sentence length imposed was estimated by
combining state, federal, and juvenile figures. Data sources for
sentence length did not provide figures for residential burglary
separate from commercial burglary. Sentence length for all
burglary (residential and commercial combined)was used as the 
estimate for residential burglary.

State and federal sentence lengths  Data sources for state
and federal sentence lengths are identified above in "Data
sources for trends in conviction rate per 1,000 population."
Sentence lengths are measured in months. To do this, life
sentences (including death sentences) for homicide had to be
converted into months.

1. Sentence length in months for state lifers To estimate for
each year the average sentence length in months for homicide
for persons sent to state prisons under a life sentence,
average time served (including credited jail time) by lifers
released from state prisons for homicide in the year ("A") was
divided by the fraction of the sentence served by non-lifers
released from state prisons for homicide that same year ("B").
For example, in 1996 3,125 persons convicted of homicide in
state courts received a life sentence or death sentence. Their
average sentence length in months was 292 months, obtained
by dividing 146 months (the average according to a special
tabulation of the 1996 database for the BJS National
Corrections Reporting Program) by .5 (the average according
to Brown, Langan, and Levin, 1999). For the years 1981-88,
"A" was set at 160 months (the average for the 1990-94
period); after 1988 the source was a special tabulation each
year of the database for the BJS National Corrections
Reporting Program (NCRP). For 1981-1990 the source for "B"
was published figures from NCRP databases for the reference
year, with appropriate adjustments; for 1992-1996, the source
was a BJS biennial publication titled "Felony Sentences in the
United States."

2. Sentence length in months for federal lifers  For 1988-96,
"480 months" (40 years) was used as the length of all life (and
death) sentences to federal prison for homicide. That is the
remaining number of months expected to live for murderers
receiving such sentences given their demographic makeup
(average age is around 30, nearly all are male, half are black).
"Remaining number of months expected to live" is appropriate
because federal life sentences imposed since 1988 must be
served in full, with no possibility of parole. Before 1988, the
estimated sentence length for state lifers convicted of
homicide was used.

Juvenile sentence length Juvenile sentence length was defined as 
length of time in confinement("A")plus length of time in aftercare 
supervision following release from confinement("B"). A study, 
close to national in scope, of 1991 juvenile releases provided the
data for "A" and "B." The study found that juveniles released for 
homicide in 1991 had served 2 years and 4 months in confinement; 
for rape, 1 year and 10 months; for robbery and assault, 1 year 
and 1 month; for burglary, 9 months; for motor vehicle theft, 8 
months (Cohen,1997). Because no other detailed national detailed 
data exist for the period, these figures were used for all years 
from 1981-94 for "A." No national data on "B" exist. Assuming that
length of time juveniles serve in aftercare is equal to length of
time they serve in aftercare, "B" was set equal to "A." Because
juvenile sentence length equals "A" plus "B," sentence length
was derived simply by doubling "A."

For 1996 length of time in confinement ("A") was derived from
a national census (1997 Census of Juveniles in Residential
Placement) that recorded length of time in confinement, by
offense, on the day of the census. Based on the assumption
that, on the day of the census, residents were, on average,
midway through their period of custody, length of stay at time
of census was doubled to obtain "A." "A" was 2 3/4 years for
homicide; about 1  years for rape; 1 year and 2 months for
robbery and assault; nearly 10 months for burglary; and a little
over 9 months for motor vehicle theft. Total juvenile sentence
length (time served plus time in aftercare) was obtained by
doubling the preceding numbers, on the assumption that time
in aftercare equaled time served in custody. 

Data sources for trends in average 
time served

In the United States the amount of time offenders actually serve
in custody before being released is almost always shorter than
the length of the imposed sentence. "Trends in average time
served" refers to the length of time actually served. State,
federal, and juvenile figures had to be combined to estimate
average time served. Average sentence length imposed during the 
year ("A"; sources of "A" are given above in "Data sources for
trends in conviction rate per 1,000 population") multiplied by
percent of sentence expected to serve ("B") gave time served.

Note that sources did not provide data on residential burglary
separate from commercial burglary. Available data for "all
burglary" were used as the estimate for residential burglary. For
example, burglars sentenced to state prison in 1994 would be
expected to serve 39% of their sentence, assuming they would
serve the same percentage of their sentence that state prisoners
released in 1994 had served, a figure that includes time served
in jail. Burglars sentenced to jail by state courts in 1994 would 
be expected to serve 50% of their sentence (the figure that was
used for jail sentences for all offenses and for all years, since 
no national data exist on percentage of jail sentence served).
Incarcerated federal burglars would be expected to serve 85%
of their prison sentence and 100% of their jail sentence (since
federal law requires that 100% of federal jail sentences and a
minimum of 85% of federal prison sentences be served). 

Juvenile burglars sentenced to incarceration would be expected
to serve 50% of their sentence (the figure that was used for
juvenile incarceration sentences for all offenses and for all 
years, since no national data exist on percentage of juvenile
incarceration sentence served). Using the preceding figures on
incarceration sentences, the overall percentage of time served
for burglary was 42%. Consequently, the average time served for
burglary in 1994 was estimated to be 18 months (since 42% of
43 months -- the overall average incarceration sentence for
burglary -- is 18 months).
 
State time served  For state prison sentences, percent of
sentence expected to serve was based on "percent of sentence
served" (including credited jail time) among persons released
from state prisons during the reference year. The source of
"percent of sentence served" for state prison sentences was
published and unpublished tabulations from the national
database called "National Corrections Reporting Program." 

For estimates of the percent of local jail sentences expected to
serve, the figure of 50% was used for all years and for all
offenses. The figure of 50% was based on a single study of a
large state (Petersilia, Turner, and Peterson, 1986, p. 13). No
national data exist to form a better basis.

Federal time served  For federal incarceration sentences before
1987, percent of sentence expected to serve was based on "percent 
of sentence served" among persons released from federal prisons 
during the reference year. For the pre-1987 years, "54%" was used 
as the "percent of sentence served" for violent offenses and 
"66%" was used for property offenses. The figures of 54% and 66% 
were from McDonald and Carlson (1992). For 1990-96, "85%" was 
used as the percent of sentence expected to serve for federal 
incarceration sentences over one year, since 85% is the minimum 
time that must be served according to a federal law that went into 
effect in 1987. 

For 1990-96, "100%" was used as the percent of sentence expected 
to serve for federal incarceration sentences equal to or less 
than 1 year. 

For 1988 federal incarceration sentences, the estimate used was
the average "percent of sentence expected to serve" over the
period 1990-94, where "percent of sentence expected to serve"
was derived according to the methods described immediately
above.

To illustrate one year, federal courts in 1994 sentenced 116
burglars to prison and 15 to jail. The 116 were expected to serve
85% of their prison sentence, and the 15 were expected to serve
100% of their jail sentence. The weighted average for the 131
incarcerated burglars is 87%, the percentage of federal
incarceration sentences that burglars were expected to serve.

Juvenile time served  Estimates used for length of time in
confinement for juveniles from 1981 to 1996 are given above in
the section "Trends in length of confinement sentences imposed."

Data sources for trends in percent of 
time served

Percent of time served was estimated by combining state, federal, 
and juvenile figures. Data sources are identified above in the 
section "Trends in average time served."

Data sources for trends in days served 
per offender

The total amount of time served in confinement by all those
sentenced to state, federal, or juvenile confinement for one of
the six crime categories during the year ("A") divided by the total
number of persons committing that crime that year ("B") gives
the length of time served per offender for that crime that year.
The number of persons sentenced to confinement ("C") multiplied by 
the average time served before release ("D") gives "A." Sources of 
"C" are described above in "Data sources for trends in percent of 
convicted offenders sentenced to custody."  Sources of "D" are 
described above in "Data sources for trends in average time 
served." Sources of "B" are described above in "Data sources 
for trends in conviction rate per 1,000 offenders."

Appendix tables

Most of the data used in this report are summarized in the six
tables in the appendix.

Results

To determine whether there was a general trend over time in a
measure, correlations were computed between the measure and
year. Positive correlations over 0.4 were taken as evidence of an
upward trend. Negative correlations over -0.4 were taken as an
indication of a downward trend. Correlations outside these ranges 
were interpreted as evidence of stability.

Trends in survey crime rates

Over the study period in the United States, the 19-year average
residential burglary rate was 65 (range: 34-106); vehicle theft, 
11 (7.5-14.2); robbery, 5.5 (3.6-7.4); and assault, 10 (6.7-12.1).
Survey-estimated robbery, assault, and motor vehicle theft rates
all fell in the early 1980's, rose thereafter until around 1993, and
then fell again. U.S. residential burglary rates fell fairly steadily
between 1981 and 1999. The general trend was downward for robbery, 
assault, and residential burglary. Motor vehicle theft was stable.
Disregarding sampling error, 1999 rates are the lowest in the 19-
year period from 1981 to 1999.

Trends in police-recorded crime rates

The 19-year average police-recorded residential burglary rate
was 8 per 1,000 population (range: 5-11); vehicle theft, 5 (4-7);
robbery, 2.2 (2-3); assault, 3.7 (3-4); rape, .7 per 1,000 females
in the population (.6-.8); homicide, .08 per 1,000 population
(.06-.10). Police-recorded crime rates for five (homicide, rape,
robbery, assault, vehicle theft) of the six study offenses fell 
in the early 1980's, rose thereafter until around 1993, and then 
fell again (see the right-hand axis of figures 1a-1f). By contrast,
police-recorded crime rates for residential burglary fell steadily
from 1981 to 1999. The general trend was downward for homicide, 
robbery, and residential burglary and upward for assault. Rape and 
vehicle theft were stable. For all of the offenses except assault, 
1999 police crime rates are the lowest recorded over the 19-year 
study period.

Trends in percent of crimes reported to police

According to victim surveys the percentage of residential
burglaries reported to police over the 19-year study period
ranged from a low of 47% to a high of 52% and averaged 49%;
completed vehicle thefts ranged 86% to 95% and averaged 91%;
robberies ranged 50% to 62% and averaged 56%; and assaults
ranged 47% to 59% and averaged 52%. The general trend in the
reporting percentage was upward for all four offenses.

Trends in percent recorded of reported

Over the 19-year study period the percentage of reported
residential burglaries that were recorded by police ranged from
a low of 58% to a high of 78% and averaged 67%; vehicle thefts
ranged 84% to 100% and averaged 95%; robberies ranged 63% to 94% 
and averaged 76%; assaults ranged 56% to 100% and averaged 82%. 
The general trend in the recording percentage was upward for 
assault and residential burglary. Robbery and vehicle theft were 
stable.

Trends in arrest rate per 1,000 offenders

Over the study period the average residential burglary arrest rate
per 1,000 offenders was 32, ranging from a low of 28 to a high
of 36; vehicle theft, 49 average, ranging 42 to 56; robbery, 57,
ranging 47 to 62; assault, 128 average, ranging 81 to 173; rape,
321 average, ranging 288 to 360; and homicide, 853 average,
ranging 810 to 920. The general trend in the arrest rate was
upward for robbery, assault, residential burglary, and motor
vehicle theft, and downward for rape. Homicide was stable.

Trends in conviction rate per 1,000 arrested offenders

Over the study period the average residential burglary conviction
rate per 1,000 arrested offenders was 399, ranging from a low of
342 to a high of 444; vehicle theft, 216 average, ranging 112 to
269; robbery, 372, ranging 329 to 407; assault, 154 average,
ranging 113 to 194; rape, 480 average, ranging 288 to 632; and
homicide, 527 average, ranging 401 to 659. The general trend in
the conviction rate per 1,000 arrested offenders was upward for
all six offenses.

Trends in conviction rate per 1,000 population

Over the study period the average residential burglary conviction
rate per 1,000 population was .56, ranging from .48 to .67;
vehicle theft, .2 average, .1-.3 range; robbery, .3, .23-.33 range;
assault, .3 average, .16-.45 range; rape, .2 average, .1-.23
range; and homicide, .05, .04-.06 range. The residential burglary
conviction rate per 1,000 population has dropped fairly steadily
since 1981, while the assault rate has risen more or less steadily. 
Conviction rates for the 4 other offenses generally rose after 1981 
and then fell after the early 1990's. The general trend in the 
conviction rate per 1,000 population was upward for homicide, rape, 
robbery, assault, and vehicle theft, and downward for residential 
burglary.

Trends in custody rate per 1,000 population

Over the study period, the average residential burglary custody
rate per 1,000 population was .32, ranging from a low of .26 to
a high of .37; vehicle theft, .1 average, ranging .04 to .13;
robbery, .2, ranging .19 to .26; assault, .2 average, ranging .1 to
.27; rape, .1 average, ranging .08 to .19; and homicide, .05,
ranging .04 to .06. The residential burglary custody rate per
1,000 population has dropped fairly steadily since 1981, while the
assault rate has risen fairly steadily. Custody rates for the 4 other
offenses generally rose after 1981 and then fell after the early
1990's. The general trend in the custody rate per 1,000 population 
was upward for homicide, rape, assault, and vehicle theft, and 
downward for residential burglary. Robbery was stable.

Trends in conviction rate per 1,000 offenders

The average residential burglary conviction rate per 1,000
offenders was 13, ranging from a low of 10 to a high of 16;
vehicle theft, 11 average, ranging 5 to 13; robbery, 21, ranging
17-24; assault, 20 average, with a range of 9 to 34; rape, 152
average, with a range of 97-189; and homicide, 447 average,
ranging from 340 to 554. The general trend in the conviction rate
per 1,000 offenders was upward for all 6 offenses. Note that,
while the rape conviction rate dropped from 1994 to 1996, that
drop is largely attributable to a change in methodology (see item
5 in the section above titled "Comparability").

Trends in custody rate per 1,000 offenders

Over the study period, the average residential burglary custody
rate per 1,000 offenders was 7.6, ranging from a low of 6 to a
high of 9; vehicle theft, 5.6 average, ranging 2 to 7; robbery, 17,
ranging 13 to 19; assault, 12 average, ranging 6 to 20; rape, 124
average, ranging 79 to 155; and homicide, 423 average, ranging
319 to 524. The general trend in the custody rate per 1,000
offenders was upward for all 6 offenses. The large drop in the
rape custody rate from 1994 to 1996 is largely attributed to a
change in methodology (see item 5 in the section above titled
"Comparability").

Trends in percent custody per conviction

Over the study period, the average percentage of convicted
offenders receiving a custody sentence was 58% for residential
burglary, ranging from 54% to 60%; a 52% average for convicted
vehicle thieves and a range of 49% to 55%; a 79% average for
convicted robbers and a range of 75% to 82%; a 61% average
for convicted assaulters and a range of 59% to 62%; an 81%
average for convicted rapists and a range of 76% to 83%; and a
94% average for persons convicted of homicide and ranging
from 94% to 96%. The general trend was upward for homicide,
residential burglary, and vehicle theft, and downward for 
assault.  Rape and robbery were stable. 

Trends in percent of time served

On average over the study period, persons sentenced to custody
for residential burglary served 43% of their sentence before
being released (range: 39-47%); vehicle theft, 47% (42-53%);
robbery, 48% (44-52%); assault, 49% (46-54%); rape, 50%
(43-56%); and homicide, 45% (37-51%). The general trend in
percent of time served was upward for homicide and rape, and
downward for residential burglary. The other offenses were
stable. However, there are indications of upward growth in time
served percentages for all six offenses since around 1990.

Trends in average sentence length

The historical average sentence length imposed for residential
burglary was 43 months (range: 35-52 months); vehicle theft, 25
months (21-29); robbery, 87 months (73-111); assault, 48 months 
(40-59); rape, 121 months (92-141); and homicide, 251 months 
(240-266). Average sentence lengths have been remarkably stable 
since 1981.

Note that, if this study is failing to detect long-term trends 
in sentence length that actually do exist, that might be because
some of the figures used to compute average sentence length
for the year were used year after year. Specifically, the same
juvenile sentence length figures were used from 1981 to 1994
(see the discussion of juvenile sentence length in the section
above titled "Data sources for trends in average sentence
length").

Trends in average time served

Over the study period, average time served for residential
burglary was 19 months (range: 15-21 months); vehicle theft, 12
months (10-14); robbery, 42 months (37-49); assault, 23 months
(21-27); rape, 60 months (47-70); and homicide, 114 months
(94-227). The general trend in average time served was upward
for homicide and rape, and downward for vehicle theft. The other
offenses were stable.

It might be that there are time-served trends that the study is
failing to detect. If so, that could be because the same juvenile
figures were used year after year in computing average time
served from 1981 to 1994 (see the discussion on juvenile time
served in the section above titled "Data sources for trends in
average time served").

Trends in days served per offender

Over the study period, 4 days was the average number served
per person committing a residential burglary (range: 3-6 days);
vehicle theft, 2 days (1-3); robbery, 21 days (16-27); assault, 9
days (4-13); rape, 229 days (122-327); and homicide, 1,480 days
(914-2013). The general trend in days served per offender was
upward for all six offenses.

Summary of justice system trends

Risk of punishment Of the 30 correlations between year and
offense-specific measures of punishment risk, 28 -- or 93% of
the 30 -- were positive and above +0.4, providing highly
consistent evidence of rising risk of punishment over the study
period.

Severity of punishment Of the 24 correlations between year and
offense-specific measures of punishment severity, 14 -- or 58%
of the 24 correlations -- were below 0.4 in absolute value,
providing fairly consistent evidence of stability in severity of
punishment over the study period. Major exceptions are
increases for homicide in average time served and percent of
time served.

Other measures Percent of crimes reported to police rose for all
four offenses (in each case the correlation with year was positive
and above 0.4), percent recorded of reported rose for 2 offenses
and was stable for 2 offenses, the conviction rate per 1,000
population generally rose (5 of the 6 offenses), and the custody
rate per 1,000 population generally rose (4 of the 6 offenses).

Explaining the results

Explaining increases in custody sentences

Growth in the number of custody sentences can occur for any
number of obvious reasons, including: more people committing
crime; rising rate of arrest for those committing crime; rising 
rate of conviction for those arrested; rising use of custody 
sentences for those convicted. This section investigates whether 
any of these trends might explain the growing number of persons 
who were sentenced to custody in the United States from 1981 to
1996. The investigation uses the same criterion as used earlier
to decide whether a trend was upward: a positive correlation with
year that is over .4 in magnitude. As used here, the expression
"no appreciable change" (or words to that effect) means that the
correlation was below .4.

Residential burglary Residential burglary was the one exception
to the trend toward growing numbers of persons being sentenced to 
custody. The number of convicted residential burglars sentenced 
to custody fell 13.3% from 1981 to 1996 (68,692 versus 59,576, or 
13,606 fewer). This was a modest drop considering the 45.6% drop 
in the number of persons committing residential burglary 
(12,472,118 versus 6,782,566).  Three reasons why the drop in 
custody was not larger were: 1) a 29.3% hike in the arrest rate 
(27.875 versus 36.036 per 1,000 residential burglars); 2) a 
20.8% hike in the conviction rate (367.789 versus 444.202 per 
1,000 arrested residential burglars); and 3) a 2.1% rise in the 
percentage of convicted residential burglars receiving a custody 
sentence (53.7% versus 54.9%). However, the modest rise in the 
custody percentage did far less to slow the decline in the custody 
count than the hikes in arrest and conviction rates. Had the only 
changes from 1981 to 1996 been the 45.6% drop in the number of 
persons committing residential burglary and the 2.1% rise in the 
custody percentage -- that is, had arrest and conviction rates not 
risen -- the number of residential burglars sentenced to custody 
would have dropped 44.5% rather than 13.3%.

Motor vehicle theft The number of convicted vehicle thieves
sentenced to custody rose 225.3% from 1981 to 1996 (7,254
versus 23,597), or 16,343 growth in the number confined.
Four reasons for the increase were: 1) a 4.9% hike in the
number of persons committing vehicle theft (3,109,264 versus
3,261,006); 2) a 29.4% hike in the arrest rate (41.553 versus
53.787 per 1000 vehicle thieves); 3) a 119.2% hike in the
conviction rate (112.143 versus 245.849 per 1,000 arrested
vehicle thieves); and 4) a 9.3% hike in the percentage of
convicted vehicle thieves receiving a custody sentence (50.1%
versus 54.7%). Hikes in the arrest and conviction rates had
the biggest effect, as evidence by the following. Had the
number of thieves been the only increase, the custody
population would have grown by 354 persons, producing a
mere 4.9% increase in the number placed in custody; had the
arrest rate been the only change, there would have been
2,136 additional offenders in custody, or a 29.4% hike; had the
conviction rate been the only change, the effect would have
been a 8,648 custody increase, or 119.2% hike; and had the
custody percentage been the only change, custody would have 
grown by 675, producing a mere 9.3% rise. 

Robbery The number of convicted robbers sentenced to custody
was up 9.1% from 1981 to 1996 (43,471 versus 47,416), or
3,945 additional confined. This was despite a 17.8% drop in the
number of persons committing robbery (3,251,491 versus
2,671,107) and no appreciable change in the percentage of
convicted robbers receiving custody. Two causes of custody
growth were a 23.6% hike in the arrest rate (47.329 versus
58.504 per 1,000 robbers) and a 12.1% hike in the conviction
rate (360.761 versus 404.492 per 1,000 arrested robbers).

Assault The number of convicted assaulters sentenced to
custody was up 205.1% from 1981 to 1996 (19,649 versus
59,952), or 40,303 growth in the number confined. This was
despite no increase in the number of persons committing assault
(3,515,987 versus 3,016,374) and a 3.7% drop in the percentage
of convicted assaulters receiving custody (61.6% versus 59.3%).
Two causes of custody growth were: 1) a 114.6% hike in the
arrest rate (80.566 versus 172.913 per 1,000 assaulters); and 2)
a 72.0% rise in the conviction rate (112.637 versus 193.773 per
1,000 arrested assaulters).

Rape The number of convicted rapists sentenced to custody
rose 70.9% from 1981 to 1996 (7,857 versus 13,431), or an
increase of 5,574 confined rapists. A 16.1% increase in the
number of persons allegedly committing rape (99,000 versus
114,924) could have been a major contributing cause except that
most of that increase was offset by a 10.2% drop in the arrest
rate (320.303 versus 287.581 per 1,000 rapists). A major reason
for the custody growth was a 78.4% increase in the conviction
rate (301.436 versus 537.700 per 1,000 arrested rapists). The
increase in confined rapists would have been even larger had the
custody percentage not dropped 8.1% from 82.2% in 1981 to
75.6% in 1996.

Homicide From 1981 to 1996, the number of persons sentenced
to custody for homicide rose 43.1% (8,272 versus 11,838), or
3,566 additional incarcerated killers. The increase occurred
despite a 12.7% drop in the number of persons allegedly
committing homicide-- from 25,898 in 1981 to 22,598 in 1996 --
and no appreciable change in the arrest rate (figure 3f). A major
reason for the custody growth was a 61.7% increase in the rate
of conviction for those arrested (407.471 versus 658.780 per
1,000 arrested killers) (figure 3f). The slight increase in the
percentage of convicted killers receiving a custody sentence
(94% versus 94.5%) played a minor role.

In summary, the number of persons receiving custody sentences
grew considerably between 1981 and 1996. Four possible reasons 
were investigated. The two consistently found to have had the 
biggest effect were increases in arrest and conviction rates. 
Depending on the particular crime, the two other reasons
investigated -- more people committing crime, custody sentences 
for a growing percentage of convicted offenders - played either 
no role or a minor role in increasing the number of offenders 
sentenced to custody.

Victim survey versus police-recorded 
crime trends

With the exception of assault, crime rate trends from victim
surveys were closely correlated with crime rate trends from
police records. The reason why victim survey assault rates
were uncorrelated with police-recorded assault rates is easily
explained by segmenting the study years into two periods:
1981 through 1991, and 1991 through 1999. 

During the period from 1981 through 1991, the victim survey assault 
rate fell but the police-recorded assault rate rose. These diverging 
trends could have occurred either because a growing percentage of 
assaults were being reported to police or because police were 
recording a growing percentage of the reported assaults, but study 
results reveal that the divergence occurred mostly because of the 
change in police recording practices. In 1981, about 61% of reported 
assaults were recorded by police; by 1991, it had risen to nearly 99%.

The period from 1991 through 1999 was entirely different. During
that period, both the victim survey rate and the police-recorded
assault rate generally fell.

As a result of these opposing trends -- the victim survey assault
rate was negatively correlated with the police-recorded assault
rate from 1981 through 1991, but positively correlated from 1991
through 1999 -- the correlations canceled each other out,
resulting in no correlation when computed over the full 19-year
period.

These results and those summarized earlier regarding changes in
police-recording practices (see section above "Trends in percent 
recorded of reported") raise concerns about the reliability of 
police statistics for measuring trends in crime rates. Homicide
is an exception since there is no reason to think that, over the
study period, changes occurred in reporting or recording 
percentages for homicide. Given the concerns about the reliability 
of the other police statistics, the discussions that follow
regarding possible causes of crime rate trends are limited to 
trends in 5 selected offenses: the 4 crimes measured in victim
surveys plus police-measured homicide.

Punishment trends as a possible explanation 
for trends in the four survey offenses and 
homicide

Changes in criminal punishment might help explain crime trends
in the United States. To investigate that possibility, correlations
were computed between punishment trends and crime trends. Negative
correlations over 0.4 were interpreted as possible support for the 
explanation that links punishment levels to crime levels.

Correlations dealt separately with risk and severity of punishment. 
As can be seen in table 5 results, one of the study's five measures 
of risk is "days served per offender." Though it actually combines 
elements of both risk and severity, this measure is grouped with the 
risk measures for a particular reason. To the extent that "days 
served per offender" varied from year to year, those changes were 
probably more a reflection of changes in risk than severity because, 
as shown earlier, severity was generally stable over the study period 
while risk generally rose. Accordingly, "days served per offender" 
is treated as one of the measures of trends in risk. Consistent with 
that, results regarding "days served per offender" were found to more 
closely resemble those regarding risk than severity of punishment.

U.S. trends were based on data for eight points in time (1981,
1983, 1986, 1988, 1990, 1992, 1994, and 1996). Detecting a
statistically significant relationship between crime and
punishment trends is difficult when trends are based on so few
points in time. Consequently, statistical significance was not
given more weight than other criteria for evaluating results. 
Other criteria used were strength of relationship and direction 
of relationship.

Risk of punishment The effect of risk of punishment on crime
rates was investigated with 25 of the 50 "risk of punishment"
correlations shown in table 5: crime trends for each of the 5
selected offenses (the 4 survey offenses plus homicide)
correlated with trends in each of the 5 risk measures. Of the 25,
20 (80%) have a negative sign, and 4 of the 20 are statistically
significant. Using negative correlations over .4 as the criterion 
for testing the effect of punishment risk, 16 of the 25 
correlations  64% -- provide support for the proposition linking 
increases in punishment risk to decreases in crime.

Severity of punishment The effect of punishment severity on
crime rates was investigated with 20 of the 40 "severity of
punishment" correlations shown in table 5: crime trends for each
of the 5 selected offenses (the 4 survey offenses plus homicide)
correlated with trends in each of the 4 severity measures. Of the
20, 10 (50%) have a negative sign, and 1 of the 10 is statistically
significant (the -0.74 correlation between trends in percent of
sentence served and trends in the vehicle theft rate). Using
negative correlations over .4 as the criterion for testing the 
effect of punishment severity, 3 of the 20 correlations-- 15% --
provide support for the proposition linking increases in punishment 
severity to decreases in crime.

In summary, rising risk of punishment was fairly consistently
associated with falling crime rates in the United States (64% 
of the 25 correlations were negative and over .4), while crime
rate changes bore little relationship to increases in punishment
severity (15% of the 20 correlations were negative and over .4).
The latter is not surprising simply because punishment severity
changed little over the study period (65% of the 20 correlations
between year and offense-specific measures of punishment
severity were below 0.4 in absolute value). Naturally, detecting
the possible effect of punishment severity on crime trends is
difficult when severity hardly changes.

Unemployment as a possible explanation for trends 
in the four survey offenses and homicide

This section investigates the possible effect of changes in the
unemployment rate (defined as the percentage of the population
that is unemployed) on trends in the five selected crimes. Over
the study period, the unemployment rate (U.S. Census Bureau, 1999) 
generally fell (r= -0.792, p < .01) and crime rates for four
of the five crimes also generally fell (all but motor vehicle 
theft  ). Consequently, as the correlations indicate, drops in 
survey crime rates for robbery, assault, and residential burglary 
and in police-measured homicide corresponded fairly consistently
(correlations over .4) to drops in the unemployment rate.

Falling poverty as a possible explanation 
for trends in the four survey offenses and 
homicide

There was no significant change in the poverty rate over the study 
period (r=-.293 correlation with year). There were only two crimes 
(robbery and assault) that had correlations greater than .4 with 
the poverty rate.

Aging of U.S. population as a possible 
explanation for trends in the four survey 
offenses and homicide

The U.S. population is aging. One indicator of aging is the
declining percentage of the population that is 13-24 years of age.
In 1981 it was 27%; in 1999, 20%. This percentage declined over
the study period (r=-.962 correlation with year ). As the
percentage has declined, so too have rates for 3 of the 5 crimes:
survey robbery, assault, and burglary rates (all 3 correlations
over .4).

Declining drug and alcohol use as a possible 
explanation for trends in the four survey 
offenses and homicide

Over the study period the percentage of the population ages 12
and over that has "ever used drugs" rose (r=.465 correlation with
year). Other percentages show declines in drug use over the
period: 1) Percent of 12th graders ever used drugs (r= -.648); 2)
Percent of 12th graders ever used drugs other than marijuana
(r=-.855); 3) Percent age 12 and over used drugs in past year
(r=-.754); 4) Percent age 12 and over used drugs in past 30 days
(r= -.784). Also, alcohol consumption per capita declined over
the study period (r=-.927 correlation with year).

The 5 measures of declining drug and alcohol use are largely
unrelated to declines in crime rates (using correlations greater
than .4 as the criterion). The only consistent exception is
residential burglary. Declines in drug and alcohol use correspond
to declines in survey-measured residential burglary (all 5
correlations are over .4--).

The still unsettled question of why U.S. 
crime rates have generally fallen

Poverty, unemployment, drug use, alcohol use, youthfulness,
and lenient and uncertain punishment by the criminal justice
punishment are some of the conditions frequently identified as
"causes" of crime. To the extent that these conditions really do
play a causal role, and to the extent that there was a lessening
of these conditions over the study period, it might reasonably
be expected that crime would drop. To investigate that
possibility, correlations were computed between measures of
these conditions and falling crimes rates for police-recorded
homicide and victim survey robbery, assault, and burglary.

Here are the main findings with respect to falling rates for the
four crimes: police-recorded homicide, and victim survey robbery, 
assault and burglary.

1. Severity of justice system punishment. Over the study period
the justice system became less lenient in its response to
homicide. Stated another way, severity of punishment generally
increased (as measured by percent custody per conviction,
average time served, and percent of time served). As severity
increased, the homicide rate fell. Severity of punishment did not
generally change for robbery, assault, and burglary. Therefore it
was not possible to test the effect on crime rates of changes in
severity for these crimes.

2. Certainty of punishment. By almost all measures, certainty of
punishment rose for all 4 crimes. As punishment certainty rose,
crime rates for all 4 fell.

3. Poverty. The poverty rate did not change appreciably over the
study period. Therefore it was not possible to test the effect 
on crime rates of changes in the poverty rate.

4. Unemployment. The unemployment rate fell during the study
period. As unemployment fell, so too did crime rates for the 
4 crimes.

5. Alcohol use. Alcohol use fell during the study period. Drops 
in alcohol use were accompanied by drops in only 2 of the 4
crimes. Therefore, drops in alcohol use were not generally
related to drops in crime rates. 

6. Drug use. By 4 of the 5 measures, drug use fell during the
study period. Falling rates of drug use were consistently 
related to falling residential burglary rates, but not 
consistently related to falling rates for the other 3 crimes.

7. Aging population. The population was aging throughout the
study period. The aging of the population was accompanied by
drops in three of the four crimes (all but homicide).

In summary, falling rates of crime were most consistently related
to the aging of the population and to falling unemployment rates
and rising risk of punishment by the justice system. Nevertheless, 
this does not prove that aging population, falling unemployment 
and rising risk of punishment caused crime rates to fall. 
Correlation studies of this kind are necessarily subject to widely 
varying interpretation. To illustrate, a positive correlation
between rising risk of punishment and a rising crime rate was
interpreted in this study as possible evidence that increasing
punitiveness does not reduce crime. Such an interpretation is not
always justified. For example, if the crime rate rose over some
period of time but was kept from soaring by increasingly punitive
policies over that period, it would be a mistake to interpret the
observed positive correlation between punishment and crime
trends as evidence that increasing punitiveness had no crime
reduction benefit. Similarly, a negative correlation between rising
risk of punishment and a falling crime rate was interpreted here
as possible evidence that increasing punitiveness reduces crime.
But, again, such an interpretation may not always be justified.
For example, crime rates can fall for reasons having nothing to
do with increasing punitiveness. Perhaps these other reasons,
rather than increasing punitiveness, account for the falling 
crime rates.

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McDonald, D. C., and K. E. Carlson. 1992. Federal Sentencing
in Transition, 1986-90. Washington, DC: BJS (NCJ-134727).

Petersilia, J., S. Turner and J. Peterson. 1986. Prison Versus
Probation in California. Santa Monica, CA: Rand Corporation.

Rand, M. 1997. Personal communication.

Rennison, C. 2001. Personal communication.

Synder, H. N. 1998. Personal communication.

U.S. Census Bureau. 1997. Statistical Abstract of the United
States, 1997. Table 14. Washington, DC.

U.S. Census Bureau. 1999. Statistical Abstract of the United
States, 1999. Table 649. Washington, DC.

Acknowledgments

I am grateful to Matthew Durose, David Levin, and Jodi Brown
for their helpful assistance. Thanks, too, to Howard Snyder,
Jeffrey Butts, Robyn Cohen, John Jarvis, Michael Rand, Callie
Rennison, John Scalia, William Sabol, Allen Beck, Doris
Wilson, Craig Perkins, and Paula Ditton for providing data.

Author

Patrick A. Langan (see Introduction for biographical profile). 

Australia
                   
Aims

This chapter discusses changes in crime and punishment in Australia 
from 1983 to 2000. It analyses national estimates for the flow of 
offenders through the different stages of the criminal justice
system. It examines estimates for six offenses: residential break
and enter, motor vehicle theft, robbery, serious assault, rape, and
homicide.

The analysis follows the methodological approach of Farrington,
Langan, and Wikstrm (1994), and Langan and Farrington (1998)
as closely as possible. This methodology relies heavily, although
not exclusively, upon crime victim surveys as the main source of
data on total numbers of offenses occurring during a given period
of time. Three national crime victim surveys have been conducted
in Australia during the period covered by this study (1983, 1993,
and 1998). Data for the remaining years are national estimates
derived from annual crime victim surveys conducted in the state
of New South Wales since 1990. Prior to 1990, numbers of survey
offenses were estimated using a regression method.

The analysis combines crime survey data on total numbers of
incidents with national data on recorded crime, numbers of
individuals coming into courts and their associated outcomes, and
correctional statistics. The Australian Bureau of Statistics has
published uniform national crime statistics for the crimes included
in this study since 1993. Prior to that, the Australian Institute of
Criminology published national crime data (Mukherjee and Dagger,
1990). No uniform court statistics exist, and data were recently
published only for higher courts. Correctional statistics providing 
the data that are necessary to perform the analyses described in this
paper are not readily available on a national basis. The national
correctional statistics are restricted to quarterly average daily
numbers of prisoners and a prison census that has been available
since 1982.

As a consequence the data and results discussed in this chapter
are subject to a number of limitations and assumptions. In most
cases estimates of key quantities for analysis were obtained by
aggregating data published by the police services or the crime
statistics offices in the states and territories. A number of
adjustments were made to crime survey data and crimes recorded
by police, explained in the main body of the chapter, to ensure
consistency in crime definitions and validity of the estimates.

These estimates are used to answer the following key questions:
*  are crime rates increasing or decreasing?
*  are crimes being reported at higher or lower rates to police?
*  are police recording more or less crime?
*  are conviction rates increasing or decreasing?
*  is imprisonment being used more or less frequently as punishment for
crimes?
*  is the sentence length increasing or decreasing?
*  are sentenced prisoners spending longer or shorter times in prison?
*  is the average time served per offender increasing or decreasing?

Section I provides background information about Australia, a brief
overview of the Australian criminal justice system, and major
significant changes over the last 20 years. 

Section II describes the method of estimation and discusses the
data used for analysis. This discussion focuses on limitations with
the data and the steps taken to maximize usefulness and minimize
impact on the analyses. 

Section III analyzes the flow of offenders through the criminal
justice system, for each crime included in the study. Emphasis is
placed on significant changes to the risk of offending, as measured
by the following three key measures: (a) the probability of arrest, 
(b)the probability of conviction, and (c) the probability of 
imprisonment. The discussion also dwells on some possible reasons 
for the observed variations in the risk of offending. 

Section IV concludes although the extent of crime has remained
stable over the years investigated for the offenses of residential
burglary, vehicle theft, and homicide, there has been an increase in
the incidence of robbery, assault, and rape. In general, prospective
offenders face low and declining risks of detection and conviction,
but increasing risks of incarceration. The section also outlines some
of the major data issues that need to be addressed to support
research on change in the Australian criminal justice system.

I. Australia 

Description

Australia is an island continent located in the Southern Hemisphere
with a land area of about 7.7 million square kilometers.***Footnote1:  
Unless otherwise stated, this section is based on data extracted from 
the 2002 Year Book Australia (Australian Bureau of Statistics, 
2002).*** The area of Australia is almost as great as that of the 
United States of America (excluding Alaska), about 50% greater than 
Europe (excluding Russia and the other European former Soviet republics) 
and 32 times greater than the United Kingdom. Six States and two 
Territories, which constitute the Commonwealth of Australia, share 
this vast extension of land.

The Australian population was 19.2 million at June 2000, with a rate
of growth of 1.2%. Indigenous peoples comprise about 2.2% of the
population. Most of Australia's population is concentrated in two
widely separated coastal regions. The largest of these regions lies
in the southeast and east. Half of the area of the continent con-
tains 0.3% of the population, and the most densely populated 1%
of the continent contains 84% of the population. The population is
concentrated in urban centers, particularly in the State and 
Territory capital cities (64% of the population).

Australians live in a multicultural society. Twenty-three percent of
Australians were born in about 125 different countries. The
proportion of population born in the United Kingdom and Northern
Ireland declined from 7.3% in 1989 to 6.5% in 1998. Over the same
period, the proportion of those born in East and Southern Asia
increased from 3.5% to 5.5%.

Like many western industrialized countries, Australia has an aging
population: it is projected the median age will increase from its
current level of 34.9 years to 46 years in 2051. Life expectancy is
76.2 years for males and 81.8 years for females. Patterns of family
formation have changed over the last decade. For example, the number 
of marriages declined by 5.5% between 1988 and 1998, and the number 
of divorces increased by 25% over the same period. In 1998, 19% of 
children less than 15 years lived in one-parent families compared to 
13% in 1990. While 19% of all births occurred outside marriage in 
1988, they represented 29% of the births in 1998.

The Australian economy experienced an unprecedented prosperity
during the last 10 years. Between 1989 and 1998, there were
increases in GDP per capita (23%) and household disposable
income (35%). Household final consumption expenditure rose 20%
over the same period. About 30% of all income units derived their
main source of income from government payments, with 7% of the
GDP being spent on income support (Australian Bureau of Statistics,
2000a).***Footnote 2:  Eleven percent of all couples with dependent 
income units had government payments as their main source of income; 
the percentage of one-parent income units deriving their main income 
from this source was 62%(Australian Bureau of Statistics, 2000a).***

Australians have universal access to health services through the
Medicare system. In 1998 health expenditure represented 8.3% of
total GDP. 

Full-time education is compulsory for children age 5 through 14.
Education participation rates increased over the last 10 years by 
an annual 1.2% for persons age 15 through 24. Year 12 retention 
rates also increased, with females staying longer at school than
males (Australian Bureau of Statistics, 2000a).

Australia is a constitutional monarchy with a parliamentary democratic 
system based on a federal division of powers. The national constitution 
is found in the Commonwealth of Australia Constitution Act 1990. Each 
State and Territory has its own Constitution. Commonwealth legislative 
power is vested in the Commonwealth Parliament, comprising the House of
Representatives (150 members) and the Senate (76 members). The powers 
of the Commonwealth Parliament are limited to areas of national
importance.***Footnote 3: Among the powers granted by the Constitution 
are trade and commerce, taxation, postal services, foreign relations, 
defense, immigration, naturalization, quarantine, currency and coinage,
weights and measures, copyrights, patents and trademarks.*** Crime and 
justice are the responsibility of the States and Territories.

The Criminal Justice system

National crime data are generated by aggregation of individual events 
taking place within contexts characterized by specific sets of 
historical, legal, cultural, social, and economic conditions. Public
values regarding crime and the nature of the responses by the
criminal justice system continue to evolve. Changes in legislation,
adoption of novel policing approaches, changing sentencing policies, 
and new developments in corrections result in temporal and 
jurisdictional variations in crime statistics. The nature of these
changes and their consequences at the national level must be fully
understood in order to assist in the correct interpretation of
cross-national differences.

Nine criminal justice systems co-exist in Australia (7 states, 2
territories and a federal jurisdiction). Each state or territory 
has its own legislative body, police force, criminal courts, and 
correctional system.

In Australia the power to legislate for most criminal matters is
vested in the states. In Queensland and Western Australia, the
criminal law is codified.  In Tasmania, common law offenses are
retained with a codified system.  In New South Wales, Victoria, and
South Australia, common law is  applicable unless excluded by
statute. The Northern Territory has a separate code since 1983,
and the Australian Capital Territory applies the New South Wales
Crimes Act 1900 with some modifications. There are significant
variations between the jurisdictions, in the definition of offenses,
and the scope and existence of particular offenses (Fairall, 2000).

The standards and classifications applicable to crime statistics have
undergone major redevelopment during the last 20 years. The
Australian Standard Offense Classification (ASOC), effective in
1997, replaced the Australian National Classification of Offenses
(ANCO) which was released in 1985. A draft ANCO classification
was in place from June 1980 until its replacement by ANCO in
1985.***Footnote 4: A "Draft ANCO" classification was in place
since June 1980 until its replacement by ANCO in 1985.*** The use
of a common classificatory scheme helped develop uniform national 
crime statistics, which have been available since 1993. It is 
important to note that ANCO and ASOC are not very different in
terms of the definitions and classifications adopted for the six
offenses included in this chapter.

In the last decade all Australian police services have moved toward
models of policing beyond the traditional "reactive" approach.
Police services have adopted community policing, problem-oriented
policing, and information-driven policing at different times during
this period (Brereton, 2000).

Introduction of new technologies that enhanced the clerical capacity
of police services is associated with the volume of recorded crime
in all jurisdictions, beginning in the middle 1980's. At that time 
most police services throughout Australia implemented computerized
crime recording systems, which resulted in increased volumes of
recorded crime.***Footnote 5:  A test for structural change on time
series of police-recorded crime rates confirmed this hypothesis for
all offenses, except for homicide (p<0.01).***

There is a hierarchy of criminal courts at the Commonwealth, State,
and Territory levels. Magistrates' courts deal with minor or summary
criminal offenses. Intermediate courts (district/county courts) hear
the majority of cases involving indictable crimes. The supreme
courts are the highest level of court within a state or territory. 
They deal with the most serious crimes. Children's courts deal with
offenses committed by persons under the jurisdiction of the juvenile
justice system.***Footnote 6:  In all Australian jurisdictions the
statutory minimum age of criminal responsibility is now 10 years
(Urbas, 2000).  The maximum age of treatment as child/juvenile is
18 years in all jurisdictions, except for Victoria and Queensland
where this age is set up to 17.***

Diversionary mechanisms aimed to keep adult and juvenile offenders 
out of the courts, the increased use of infringement notices, and 
changes to the content of summary jurisdiction have had a major 
impact on the workload of courts over the past 2 decades.
***Footnote 7: According to Freiberg and Fox (1994), in Victoria in 
1990-91 over 2,300,000 infringement notices were issued, and in NSW, 
in 1992-93 the police alone issued 1,988,746 infringement notices.  
In Victoria, driving offenses contributed 70% of all the convictions 
recorded in the Magistrates' Courts during 1971. Twenty years later, 
when infringement notices were well established, driving offenses 
accounted for less than 30% of all offenses charged in the 
Magistrates' Courts (Fox, 1995).***

The large number of minor matters that were dealt with outside the
summary courts by means of infringement notices were replaced
by a substantial number of serious offenses that were formerly
heard in the higher courts. The courts of summary jurisdiction hear
the great majority of all criminal cases in Australia.***Footnote 8: 
In NSW the summary jurisdiction for many indictable property
offenses has increased over recent years.  Prior to 1983, these
offenses could be heard summarily only if the value of the property
involved did not exceed $1,000.  This limit was increased to $10,000 
in 1983, further to $15,000 in 1987, and finally, in 1995 the upper 
limit was removed (Willis, 2000).*** 

This transfer of cases from the higher courts to the summary courts
has had a major impact upon the workload of the higher courts.
Since a majority of  penalties imposed in the intermediate courts
often result in short terms of imprisonment, the transfer of cases 
to the summary courts must have an effect on volumes of convictions
and the numbers of sentences to relatively short terms of imprisonment.

Recent developments in sentencing include mandatory sentencing laws, 
judicial sentencing guidelines, and sentencing grids. In the words of
Zdenkowski (2000), "the genesis of these developments lies not, 
primarily, in ... notions of consistency and fair-ness ..., but
rather from a perception that sentence severity should be escalated" 
(p. 173).***Footnote 9:  Mandatory sentencing laws have included NSW's
mandatory life sentence laws in 1989, Western Australia's "three 
strikes" legislation in 1992 and the NT's mandatory minimum 
imprisonment laws for property offenders in 1997 (Zdenkowski, 2000).  
In Western Australia legislation authorizing the referral of cases 
to the Court of Criminal Appeal for the express purpose of the 
formulation of a judicial sentencing guideline was introduced in 
1995 and authorizing a sentencing matrix system was set forth in 
1998.***

Restorative justice schemes were introduced in New South Wales,
Victoria, Queensland, and Western Australia around 1996, and
more recently in the Australian Capital Territory to deal with 
juvenile offenders.

II. Data and methods

Data sources and data problems

The data used for this study come from several sources. With the
exception of homicide, total numbers of offenses for each year in
the analysis were obtained from crime victim survey data and
official recorded crime statistics published by police
services.***Footnote 10: Data showing full distributions of victims
according to the number of incidents experienced during the
surveys' reference periods were not available, and the estimates
included in this study were based on truncated versions of such
distributions as published by the Australian Bureau of Statistics
(1986, 1994b, 1999d, 1991-2001).  The total numbers of offenses
reported here are lower bounds for the true levels of crime during
the 12 months prior to the surveys.***  The National Homicide
Monitoring Program (NHMP) at the Australian Institute of
Criminology was the main source of homicide data.***Footnote 11: 
Data on numbers of homicides recorded between 1983 and 1989
were obtained from for 1991-2000 came from the National Homicide
Monitoring Program held at the Australian Institute of Criminology
(Carcach and James, 1997; Mouzos, 2000).***

Crime victim survey data

The national crime survey conducted by the Australian Bureau of
Statistics has changed several times since 1983; the most
important relates to use of different data collection methods and
changes to the wording of survey questions. Main characteristics of
the surveys, as well as the questions used to assess the
victimization status of respondents, are summarized to show
additional differences. These changes have not had a major impact
on the comparability of survey estimates, except for the offenses of
robbery and assault.***Footnote 12,13:  According to data from
national crime surveys, robbery rates were 5 per 1,000 in 1998. The
1998 survey asked two separate questions relating to robbery,
whereas a single question was asked in the 1983 and 1993 surveys.  
Data from crime surveys in New South Wales show robbery rates 
oscillating between 16 per 1,000 during 1990-91 and 1995-96; 12 per
1,000during 1992-94 and 1999; and a low 5 per 1,000 during 1997-98.***  
***Footnote 13:  The rate of assault was 34 per 1,000 in 1983, 25
per 1,000 in 1993, and 43 per 1,000 in 1998. The change to a
self-completing questionnaire in 1993 required the assault question
to be modifled and this may explain the decline in the victimization
rate in 1993 compared to the 1983 survey.  National estimates
derived from New South Wales survey data suggest that the
assault rate has increased steadily from 22 per 1,000 in 1990 to 39
per 1,000 in 2000.***

Data from the crime victims survey conducted annually in New South 
Wales since 1990 (Australian Bureau of Statistics, 1990-2001) were 
used to derive estimates of numbers of offenses for the periods 
1990-1992, 1994-1997, and 1999-2000.***Footnote 14:  Unlike the 
national crime survey, the New South Wales crime survey, conducted 
every year since 1990 with the exception of 1993 and 1998, uses the 
same questionnaire and data collection method, and has as its main 
objective the generation of time series data.***  Prior to 1990 
numbers of survey offenses were estimated using a symptomatic 
regression method.

In order to maintain consistency with other countries participating
in the project, this study deals with the offenses of rape and
serious assault, rather than the generic offenses of sexual assault
and assault that are included in the crime victim surveys. The
definition of serious assault used in this study included assaults
where actual violence was used against the victim.***Footnote 15: 
Crime survey data show that the number of victims of serous
assault increased from 1983 to 1993, and has remained stable
since then.  Twenty-seven percent of assaults in the 1983 crime
surveys involved actual violence on the victim compared to 38% in
the 1993 and 1998 surveys (Australian Bureaus of Statistics, 1986,
1994b).***

The crime victim survey question on sexual assault is asked of
females age 18 years and older, and includes any incident of a
sexual nature. Therefore sexual assaults as defined in crime victim
surveys are not strictly equivalent to the offense of rape, or even to
the offense of sexual assault in the Australian Standard Offense
Classification, or its predecessor, the Australian National
Classification of Offenses. Rape, that is defined as having sexual
intercourse with a woman against her will, is one of several
offenses that comprise the generic offense of sexual assault.

The national crime survey does not ask questions to differentiate
between types of sexual incidents. Data on this issue are available
from an alternative source, the Australian component of the
International Crime Victims Survey (ICVS). The ICVS uses a much
smaller sample than the national crime survey, but gives reliable
national estimates (Carcach, 2002). These estimates from the ICVS
are comparable to the estimates from the national surveys used in
this report. ICVS data show, among incidents of recorded sexual
assaults, rape and attempted rape accounted for 19% in 1988, 36%
in 1991, and 25% in 1999.***Footnote 16: Australia has participated 
in 3 waves of the ICVS (1988, 1992 and 2000). The sample sizes have 
oscillated about 2,005 respondents with a 52% response rate. The 
ICVS uses Computer Assisted Telephone Interviewing (CATI) as the 
data collection method. It collects data about experiences of 
victimization during the calendar year previous ot the survey (Van 
Kasteren, Mayhew, and Nieuwbeerta, 2001).***  The average 27% from 
these surveys was applied to the national survey estimates of sexual 
assault to derive estimates of the numbers of rapes (van Kasteren, 
Mayhew, and Nieuwbeerta, 2001, p. 188).

Reporting rates

Crime victim surveys were the source of data on the percentage of
incidents reported to police. Information on reporting behavior is
gathered for the most recent victimization; therefore the reporting
rate estimated from survey data may not apply to all the crimes
experienced by respondents. Because repeat victims report crimes
to the police at lower rates than do single-occasion victims
(Carcach, 1997), the reporting rates included in this study may
overestimate the true probability that victims report crimes to the
police. Reporting rates for years with no national crime surveys
were assumed to stay at the same level as for the most recent
national survey.

Recorded crime

The total numbers of offenses recorded by police since 1993 were
obtained from crime statistics published by the Australian Bureau
of Statistics (1994a, 1995a, 1997a, 1998a, 1999a, 2000c, 2001).
Statistics for the years 1983-1992 were obtained from official
statistics published by police services.***Footnote 17:  The
Australian Bureau of Statistics only started to publish data for the
offense of assault in 1995.  Therefore the data used to obtain the
estimates for serious assault during 1995 were obtained from
official statistics published by police services Australia wide.  
Data for the offense of homicide came from the National Homicide
Monitoring Program (NHMP) at the Australian Institute of Criminology, 
except for 1983.  Homicide data for this year were obtained from 
Mukhergee and Dagger (1991).*** Both numbers and rates of recorded 
crime are presented for the period 

Except for the offense of rape, recorded-crime rates were calculated 
relative to the total estimated population on June 30 each year.
***Footnote 18:  Data on population on 30 June each year come from 
estimates of residential population published by the Australian Bureau 
of Statistics (1994c, 2000b).*** Rape rates were calculated relative 
to the female population 18 years and older.

Recording practices and procedures vary for police services,
divisions within police services, and police officers (see for example
Burrows, and others 2000). The author is unaware of any comprehensive 
research assessing differences in recording practices and procedures 
among the Australian police services. According to a published study 
on the topic conducted in Queensland in 1992, police recorded one-
third of all the incidents that came to their attention during that 
year (Criminal Justice Commission, 1996). State comparisons of crime 
survey offenses reported to the police and recorded crime statistics 
for 1998 suggest that there may be variation in recording police 
recording practices, across both jurisdictions and types of offenses. 
Some evidence shows a tendency toward classifying crimes at first 
report, however this cannot be substantiated with the data currently
available.***Footnote 19: The data show that for the offenses of
burglary, robbery, and assault New South Wales and South Australia 
had an above average proportion of reported crimes that were recorded 
as such by police. Above average robberies were also recorded in 
Victoria. In Queensland police recorded an above average proportion 
of reported sexual assaults. Western Australia was the only state 
with a below average proportion of reported car thefts recorded by 
police. Above average recording probabilities may also indicate a 
tendency toward classifying crimes at first report.***

Crime survey equivalent(CSE)offenses 
recorded by police

Crime definitions in the official statistics can differ from the
operational definitions used in the development of crime survey
questionnaires. As mentioned in Section I, two standards for the
classification of offenses (ANCO and ASCO) were developed
during the period covered by this study. The definitions of the
offenses used in this study are those stated in the official
classifications (Australian Bureau of Statistics, 1997b).

Numbers of CSE offenses recorded by police were obtained from
several sources. The Australian Bureau of Statistics (1999a p. 84)
published data on numbers of CSE offenses recorded during the 12
months prior to the 1998 survey. Similar data were not published for
the 1983 and 1993 surveys so indirect estimates were developed.
Various assumptions and processes were followed to obtain these
estimates.

Crimes cleared and numbers of offenders

All police services in Australia do not publish data on numbers of
crimes cleared by arrest, or on numbers of distinct offenders
involved in these crimes. Victoria and South Australia (SA) are the
states that published data on numbers of distinct offenders for the
period covered by this study. Data from both states were used to
estimate numbers of distinct offenders involved in each incident.***
Footnote 20:  For the offense of homicide starting from 1993, data
on numbers of offenders were obtained from the NHMP, whereas
data prior to that year were obtained from Mukherjee and Dagger
(1990).*** The average number of offenders per offense was
calculated from the ratio of numbers of offenders recorded by police
to the number of crimes cleared by arrest. Clearance rates were
estimated using averages of published numbers of crimes cleared
for the states of New South Wales (1994a, 1998a), Victoria (1984,
1994, 1995, 1998, 1999), Queensland (1999, 1994), Western
Australia (1993, 2000) and South Australia (1984, 1994, 1995,
1998, 1999).

Persons convicted

The term "convicted persons" applies to those who, for at least one
offense charged, either pled guilty or were found guilty by
trial.***Footnote 21:  When a person faces several charges, the
conviction is recorded for the most serious offense.*** 

No uniform court statistics are available for Australia. Therefore
national estimates are derived from state-territory court statistics.
These data are not available in published form in all the
jurisdictions. A major problem when working with court data is that
they do not always refer to distinct offenders or distinct matters. 
In most cases and when available, court statistics refer to court
appearances. A court appearance may involve multiple offenders
or multiple offenses (matters).

Data on numbers of distinct offenders dealt with by courts and court
out- comes were available for New South Wales (NSW) and South
Australia (SA).***Footnote 22:  Data for NSW existed over the
period from 1989 to 1998, and for SA, data were available over the
period from 1982 to 1998.  Data for 1983, 1993, and 1998 were
used to derive estimates of persons convicted for each offense and
year included in this study (New South Wales Bureau of Crime
Statistics and Research, 1994, 1999; Office of Crime Statistics,
1984a, 1984b, 1984c, 1984d, 1994, 1999a, 1999b).*** The
conviction rates during the years 1993 and 1998 were averages of
the NSW and SA rates, whereas the SA rates were used as proxy
for the national estimates during 1983.***Footnote 23:  These data
were used to calculate conviction rates for each year within the two
jurisdictions.  The correlation coefficient between the conviction
rates of NSW and SA was over 80% for most offenses.  For homicide 
and assault the correlation between the series was 5%.***

A set of conviction rates per 1,000 population was calculated
relative to the total population 10 years and older. This includes
juvenile and adult convictions. Another set of conviction rates was
calculated on the basis of numbers of adult convictions and total
population 18 years and older. This was required because offense-
specific data on length of prison sentences and times served in 
prison were not available for juveniles.

Persons to imprisonment

Data for estimation of numbers of persons sentenced to imprisonment, 
both juvenile and adults, came from the same sources as data on 
convictions: therefore they were affected by problems similar to 
those faced when estimating numbers of persons convicted. The 
imprisonment ratios obtained from these data were applied to the 
national estimates of persons convicted to derive estimates of 
persons sentenced to imprisonment.***Footnote 24: Lack of published 
data prevented inclusion of the states of Queensland and Western 
Australis, and the Northern Territory in these calculations. These 
three jurisdictions have the highest rates of imprisonment in the 
country (Carcach and Grant, 1999) and their exclusion is expected 
to result in underestimation of imprisonment rates and associated
probabilities.***

Sentence length and time served

Estimates of average sentence length and average time served
were derived from prison census data (Australian Institute of
Criminology 1983-1995; Australian Bureau of Statistics, 1996-2001b). 
The National Prison Census collects data on adults held at Australian
corrective institutions on June 30 each year. No similar collection 
is available for persons in juvenile corrective institutions.
***Footnote 25: No data on length of sentence and time served in 
prison for juveniles were available. The majority of juvenile 
offenders are sentenced to short periods of imprisonment. For 
instance, data from South Australia showed that 1,134 persons
were admitted to a juvenile detention center in 1998.  The average
daily occupancy was 36.79 during the same year, giving an average
length of detention of 30.8 days per person (Office of Crime
Statistics, 1999b).*** Since juveniles cannot be sentenced to
imprisonment longer than 3 months, it was assumed that the average 
length of stay for juveniles was 1.5 months, both across offenses 
and over time.

Prison census data are problematic in many respects. Because
they refer to the characteristics of prisoners counted on the night 
of June 30 each year, the census data do not contain information
about all persons that were admitted to and released from prison
between census dates. Prison census data are biased towards the
characteristics of persons sentenced to longer periods of
imprisonment and census estimates of lengths of sentence and
times served may overestimate the true magnitudes. Sentence
length from prison censuses refers to an average aggregate sen-
tence, which may include periods of imprisonment for several
offenses.

When this is the case, the estimated aggregate sentence is related
to the most serious offense for which the individual is serving a
period of imprisonment. Data on the effective time served by the
prisoners that are released during specific periods are not available
from the prison census, nor they are easy to obtain from other
sources. Instead, the prison census collects data on the expected
time to serve for each sentenced prisoner. Although this variable
relates to all the offenses for which a person may be imprisoned, 
it is published as relating to the most serious offense.

Despite these problems and due to limitations with data availability,
expected times to serve for prisoners counted on census night were
used as a proxy for the time served by those released between census 
dates. Aggregate sentence was used as a proxy for sentence length of 
all prisoners coming through the corrections system during the 
periods included in this study.

Methodology

As mentioned in the introduction, this paper followed the approach
outlined in Farrington, Langan, and Wikstrom (1994), and Langan
and Farrington (1998). The aim was to obtain estimates of the
following three key measures for the cost of offending:(a) the
probability of arrest, (b) the probability of conviction conditionally 
on the event of arrest, and (c) the probability of imprisonment
conditionally on arrest and conviction. According to the deterrence
hypothesis, increases in these probabilities will cause crime rates
to drop. Extant research suggests that this may not always be the
case.***Footnote 26: According to Greenberg, Kessler, and Logan
(1979), a number of factors can affect the relationship between risk
of punishment and the crime rates. Criminal justice sanctions are
interdependent. Arrest is not a pure sanction; an individual who is
arrested faces a stochastic distribution of outcomes raging from
dismissal of charges to conviction and imprisonment. The decisions 
by courts will influence any impact of the risk of arrest, or for 
the case clearance rates, on crime rates.  Prospective offenders
may lack knowledge about changes in the risk of punishment given
detection and conviction.  Unless information about sanctions is
communicated to potential offenders, variation in sanctions has 
no deterrent effect. The consequences of punishment may not be
serious enough to make arrest or incarceration effective
sanctions.***

The criminal justice system also affects crime rates by
incapacitating offenders. Individuals who are convicted and
sentenced to imprisonment are precluded from committing further
crimes. The extent of such an incapacitative effect on crime rates
depends on factors such as rates of offending, frequency and
pattern of offending, length of criminal careers, the probability of
incarceration, and the length of incarceration (Spelman, 2000).
Results on the relationship between crime rates and time served in
prison are mixed, so there is no certainty that incapacitation
reduces crime rates (Blumstein, Cohen, and Nagin, 1978). As
mentioned in the introduction, the results discussed in the following
section are subject to a number of assumptions and data adjustments.

IV. Results

Survey crime rates

Crime survey data and derived estimates suggest that the
residential burglary rate per 1,000 households declined from 118
per 1,000 in 1983 to 96 per 1,000 in 1994, then increased to 122
per 1,000 in 1998 and declined to 109 per 1,000 in 2000. The motor
vehicle rate increased by about 20% between 1983 and 1987, then
remained relatively stable around an average 22 per 1,000 until
1991 when it dropped to reach a stable level, around an average of
17 per 1,000, since 1993. The number of survey serious assaults
per 1,000 persons age 15 years and older remained relatively
stable around a level of 15 per 1,000 between 1983 and 1993, then
increased until 1998. It seems to have stabilized since then around
an average 25 per 1,000. The robbery rate increased from 4 per
1,000 in 1983 to 7 per 1,000 in 1998 and has declined since then.
The rape rate declined until 1989, then increased until 1994 when
it resumed its declining trend up to 1996 to increase again until
2000.

The correlation coefficient between the survey rates and the year
was used to assess whether crimes were increasing markedly over
time. A positive correlation coefficient of 0.5 or greater was
considered to indicate a strong relationship. Serious assault (r =
0.72) and robbery (0.61) increased markedly between 1983 and 2000. 
Motor vehicle theft had a declining trend over the same period 
(r = - 0.75). Survey rates with a low correlation coefficient were 
for burglary (r = 0.18) and rape (r = - 0.24). A closer examination 
of the graph for burglary suggests that the survey rate might have 
experienced some sort of structural change around 1994. Separate 
computation of the correlation coefficient for the 1983-93 and 
1994-00 periods showed that there was a strong negative correlation 
during the former (r = - 0.84) whereas there was an absence of trend 
during the later (r = 0.30).  The rate for motor vehicle theft seems 
also to have had a dramatic change around 1994. The correlation with 
time during the 1994-2000 period was strong according to the 
criterion adopted for this study and negative (r = - 0.58), whereas 
there was no apparent trend between 1983 and 1993.

Recorded crime rates

Trends in recorded crime rates are similar to those for survey rates.
This was confirmed by the correlation of recorded rates with time,
all of which exceeded the 50% threshold, and the correlation
coefficients between the survey and recorded rates. Rape was the
one offense for which there was an apparent discrepancy between
the trends of the survey and recorded crime rates. This was due to
the sharp decline in survey rates between 1994 and 1996 year after
which the survey rate resumed its increasing trend. The correlation
between the rape survey and recorded rates was 0.72 prior to 1996.

Reporting crime to the police

As mentioned before the percentage of victims that report crimes
to the police tends to remain stable over time. This study assumed
that for periods between national crime surveys, the reporting rates
were on average, the same as those observed during the latest of
these surveys.

Recording crime by police

The probability of police recording a reported incident as a crime
increased across all the types of offenses. With the exception of
robbery (r = 0.40), the correlation of the recording probability with
time was positive and greater than 50% for all offenses. The
highest correlation was observed for serious assault (r = 0.93)
followed by residential burglary (r = 0.84) and rape (r = 0.78). The
correlation coefficient between the recording rate for motor vehicle
theft and time was 0.74, which reflects the fact that the recording
rate for this offense reached its maximum of 100% in 1992.

------------------------------------
Conviction rates

The correlation of the number of convictions per 1,000 population
with time indicates that conviction rates increased markedly for the
offenses of serious assault (r = 0.92), robbery (r = 0.93) and rape
(r = 0.78), and that for residential burglary it remained stable over
the period under study. On the other hand conviction rates for motor
vehicle theft declined since 1983 (r = - 0.69).

Custody rates

Custody rates followed the same trend as conviction rates in the
general population, with the exception of residential burglary for
which the former increased markedly (r = 0.51). The correlation
coefficients of the custody rates with time were positive for
serious assault (r = 0.92), robbery (r =0.49), and rape (r = 0.78).
The conviction rate for motor vehicle theft remained stable
according to the criterion used in this study.
----------------------------------------

Probability of an offender being convicted

Conviction rates per offender followed the same trend as for
conviction rates in the general population, with the exception of
residential burglary for which the former declined markedly (r = -
0.75). The correlation coefficients of the conviction rates per
offender with time were all positive for serious assault (r = 0.63) 
and robbery (r = 0.49). As in the general population, the offender-
based conviction rate of motor vehicle theft declined (r = - 0.75).

Probability of an offender receiving a 
custodial sentence

Between 1983 and 2000 the risk of a prospective offender being
sentenced to a term of imprisonment increased for the offense of
serious assault (r = 0.63). This measure showed stability over 
time for the remaining offenses.

Probability of custody after a conviction

The risk of imprisonment (given conviction) increased for the 
offenses of residential burglary (r = 0.68) and motor vehicle 
theft (r = 0.89), and remained stable for the remaining 
offenses.

Percentage of sentence served in custody

The offenses that recorded an increase in this measure during the
period 1983-2000 were robbery (r = 0.75) and rape (r = 0.79).
Robbery prisoners served 58% of the sentence in prison in 2000
compared to 42% in 1983. A rapist served 66% of the sentence in
custody in 2000 compared to 47% in 1983. The percentage time
served remained stable for the other offenses.

Average time served

The average time served followed a trend similar to length of
sentence, except for the offenses of motor vehicle theft (r = -0.18)
and serious assault (r = 0.44) for which it remained stable, and rape
that recorded a marked increase between 1983 and 2000 (r = 0.85).
Time served for rape offenders sentenced to prison increased from
an average 40 months to 58 months over the period under study.
An imprisoned burglar spent at least 21 months before being
released in 2000 compared to 13 months in 1983. In the case of
homicide, the time served increased from 104 months in 1983 to
132 months in 2000.

Average sentence length

The average length of a prison sentence increased for the offenses
of burglary (r = 0.59), serious assault (r = 0.70), and homicide 
(r = 0.79), declined for robbery (r = -0.72), and remained stable 
for motor vehicle theft and rape. For burglary, the average sentence
length increased from 24 months in 1983 to 36 months in 2000. For
serious assault the increase was from 32 months in 1983 to 38
months in 2000, and for homicide, sentence length increased from
160 to 186 months between 1986 and 2000. 

Average time served per conviction

The average time served per conviction increased for all offenses
between 1983 and 2000, except for robbery and serious assault
which remained stable. In the case of burglary (r = 0.78), the 
time served per conviction remained stable for most of the period
between 1983 and 1994 around an average 37 days, increased 
from 1995 through 1999, and reached over 90 days in 2000. Motor
vehicle theft recorded step increases over the study period, from 
15 days in 1983 to 33 days in 2000. 

The average time served per conviction for serious assault
remained stable around an average of 30 days over the study
period. For the offense of robbery, the length of time served
oscillated around a mean of 410 days between 1983 and 1988, and
from 1989 to 2000 oscillated around a mean value of 340-350 days.

Rape and homicide both recorded increases in the average time
served per conviction. For rape this measure went from 370 days
in 1983 to 527 days in 2000, an increase of 42%. For homicide the
increase was from 2,955 to 3,447 days or 17% between 1983 and
2000.

Average time served per offender

Though much lower in magnitude, the average time served per
offender followed the same trend as average time served per
conviction. This indicated that a prospective offender who was
sentenced to a period of imprisonment was expected to spend
more time in 2000 than in 1983 for all offenses, except serious
assault and robbery.

V. Explaining the results

It is difficult to explain trends in national crime data, in 
particular when they belong to countries with a federal system of 
government. In Australia, national crime statistics tend to mask 
significant variations within the states and territories, and cancel 
them out with each other. There are many fact-ors that have a major 
effect on crime trends. Some of these factors are:
*  changes in legislation criminalizing (decriminalizing) certain
behaviors, modifying police powers, or modifying the severity and
nature of penalties.
*  organizational and technological innovations in policing.
*  changes to crime classifications, crime recording policies and
crime counting rules.
*  demographic and socioeconomic changes.

In a federal democracy like Australia, these factors may operate
differently within each state or territory. Even if 2 states were
following similar policies, crime data yet not being strictly
comparable because of differences in timing and method of
implementation, or interpretation.

In general changes in survey crime rates were highly correlated with
changes in recorded crime rates, either over the 17 years spanning
from 1983 to 2000 or over subsets of this period. This finding
suggests that there is a relatively good agreement between crime
as measured from police statistics and from crime surveys, provided 
that the proper adjustments are made to the data to improve their
comparability.

The data indicate that for the offenses of burglary, serious assault
and robbery, the general trend is toward increasing crime rates,
whereas these are declining for motor vehicle theft, and tend to
remain stable for rape and homicide.

Unlike the United Kingdom and other developed countries, there
are no recent studies on the determinants of crime rates in
Australia. The research on the topic (Mukherjee, 1981), found that
variables such as urbanization, unemployment, GDP per capita and
numbers of cars registered correlated well with crime rates over the
period 1900-1980. At the regional level varia-bles such as economic
transformation, accessibility to services, income inequality,
residential stability, family structure, economic stress and child
neglect have been found to explain variation in Australian crime
rates (Weatherburn and Lind, 2001, Carcach, 2001).

It is virtually impossible to control statistically for all the 
factors that underlie national crime trends. Despite such limitation, 
this section explored the associations between the trends observed 
from the data and some socioeconomic indicators. Data on most of these
indicators were not available for the entire study period. However,
most of these measures tend to remain stable over time so the
decision was made to examine their association with the crime and
justice measures used in this study for the 3 data points
corresponding to the years of national crime surveys (i.e. 1983,
1993, and 1998).

The values of the socioeconomic indicators considered for analysis
are intended to serve as rough indicators for some factors identified
in the literature as related to national and regional crime rates.
Variables such as proportion of Indigenous peoples, persons ages
15-17, 15-24, and 25-29 years as a percentage of total population,
or the median age of the population are used as indicators of
demographic structure. Other variables are indicators for factors 
such as; family stability, family structure, socioeconomic change, 
income, expenditure and alcohol consumption (Field 1990, Sampson, 
Morenoff, and Earls, 1999, Carcach, 2001).

Population growth was associated with declines in the rate of
burglary and increases in the rate of motor vehicle theft, a 
finding that is consistent with previous research indicating the 
close relationship between property crime and population (Mukherjee,
1981). With the exception of motor vehicle theft, changes in
national crime rates tend to be positively associated with changes
in the share of indigenous peoples in the general population. The
literature on the disproportionate involvement of indigenous
Australians with the criminal justice system is extensive, however
our finding cannot be interpreted as suggesting a causal link
between aboriginality and crime rates. Motor vehicle crime rates
were positively associated with the proportion of youth in the
general population, but their association with the other offense
types was negative.

The percentage of sole parent families with children under 15 years
of age was associated with increases in the crime rates for all
offenses except for motor vehicle theft. This finding was confirmed
by the positive association between crime rates and the proportion
of children under 15 years of age who live in sole parent families.
Increases in the crude marriage rate were associated with declines
in crime rates, whereas increases in the divorce rate were
associated with increases in crime. Motor vehicle theft was the
exception to this pattern. These findings are consistent with those
from previous research on the relationship between family stability
and structure with crime.

The negative correlation of alcohol consumption with (both survey
and police) crime rates for robbery, assault and burglary was
unexpected, though it may not be surprising given the highly
aggregate nature of the alcohol consumption measure. Increases
in female participation in the labor force as well as increases 
in the length of the full-time working week were associated with 
increases in crime rates. None of the unemployment measures 
correlated with crime.

GDP per capita and household final consumption together with
changes in the consumer price index were associated with
increases in crime rates over the period 1983-2000.

These findings seem to support an explanation of national crime
trends in terms of economic growth, changes in family formation
patterns, and changes in the labor force. However, they must be
taken as indicative of likely relationships that need to be tested
using more formal econometric or statistical methods than the
simple correlation analyses used here.

Correlations exist between crime rates and offender's risk and
punishment measures. The data seem to indicate that the
probability of imprisonment conditional on conviction is the one
measure that has a consistently negative correlation with crime
rates across all offenses.

Based on survey data the findings support the views of authors like
Indermaur (1995, 2000) that crime in Australia has remained stable
over the recent past. While this finding holds for crimes such as
vehicle theft and homicide, it does not for burglary, robbery, 
assault and rape. Burglary has increased, but the component measured 
by crime surveys (residential burglary) has remained stable between
1983 and 1998. The upward trend in total burglary has been driven by 
increases in burglaries on nonresidential premises. In a similar 
manner, while personal robbery has remained stable over the 15 years 
covered by this study, increases seem to have occurred for robberies
perpetrated on organizations.

Assault and rapes are the two offenses for which the trend from
survey data does not seem to be consistent with the most likely
case of an increase over time. Prior to 1993 the survey rate for
serious assault was stable but the recorded crime rate increased.
From 1994 onwards this pattern reversed; the survey rate increased
and the recorded crime rate stabilized. For rape both the survey
rate and the recorded crime rate followed a similar trend until 1993,
year after which the survey rate dropped sharply to then stabilize.
However the recorded crime rate continued to increase.

National crime rates based either on crime surveys or on official
counts of recorded crime, are subject to large variation over time
and across spatial entities. As an example of this, data from the
1998 National Crime and Safety Survey show rates of residential
burglary varying between a low 53 per 1,000 households in Victoria,
and a high 124 per 1,000 households in Western Australia.

At the regional level in Victoria, the rate of residential burglary
ranged from 26 per 1,000 in Goulburn-Ovens-Murray and Northeastern 
Melbourne to 110 per 1,000 in Northwestern Melbourne. In Western 
Australia (WA), the rate varied between 96 per 1,000 in Lower 
Western WA and 136 in the Central Metropolitan Region (Australian 
Bureau of Statistics, 1999d).

Regional data on police-recorded crime show that national crime
rates have quite high variances, which suggests that any observed
difference in record- ed crime rates may not appear as statistically
significant.***Footnote 27:  Local area data on police-recorded
crime for the 1994-98 period held at the Australian Institute of
Criminology show that crime rates have large coefficients of
variation.  Coefficients of variation for the rates were for
burglary--96% robbery--700%, and vehicle theft--383%.***
Differences in police recording practices and procedures are other
sources of local variation in police-recorded crime rates. The
magnitude of such variation cannot be assessed with the data used
in this study.***Footnote 28:  Burrows and others (2000) found that
in the UK, 47% of crime allegations were recorded as crimes, but
that this varies across police forces, from a low 33% to a high 55%. 
Similar data are not available in Australia.***

National crime data, either from crime surveys or official statistics,
mask an important reality which is that crime is unevenly distributed
among regions within a country, among localities within regions and
among individuals in different socioeconomic groups. Studies based on 
national data are often unsuccessful in controlling for the effect 
that factors associated with crime, delinquency, and victimization 
have on aggregate crime rates. The causes of crime are 
multidimensional and include biological factors, family factors,
and schooling-related factors, relational networks, poverty and
unemployment, substance abuse, public attitudes toward crime, criminal
opportunities, weak informal social controls, police activity and 
level of punishment, and economic fluctuations (Weatherburn, 2001).

The present study does not escape to this criticism. In addition,
because it uses three time points it is difficult to assess change 
in crime and punishment in a heterogeneous environment such as the
Australian criminal justice system. The lack of time series data 
does not enable one to examine associations and causal relationships
between relevant variables.

Australian homicide rates exhibit a remarkable stability. This is due
to the small number of homicides that occur in Australia (the homicide 
rate has never exceeded 2.5 per 100,000 population). The distribution 
of homicides by type has remained stable over the last 10 years.
***Footnote 29: Intimate-partner homicides account for 23% of total 
homicides and family homicides contribute around 12% to total homicides. 
There has been a decline in stranger homicide at the expense of an 
increase in homicides involving friends and acquaintances.*** There 
has been a decline in the number of homicides committed with firearms, 
but this has been compensated by an increase in the use of knives 
and other sharp instruments (Mouzos, 2000).

The police come to know about 60% burglaries, 97% of vehicle thefts, 
50% of robberies, and 30% of serious assaults and rapes. As suggested 
by the previous discussion, there is evidence that robbery, assault 
and rape are being reported at higher rates now than 20 years ago. 
It is difficult to identify the myriad of factors underlying the 
reporting behavior of victims. 

Depending on the type of crime, higher reporting rates can be
associated with increases in the seriousness of offenses both in
terms of physical injury and property losses to victims, or more
offenses involving offenders known to victims. At a more general
level, increases in crimes reported to police may reflect less
tolerance of crime in the community, increase in the concern that
crime is on the rise, or improved perceptions of police performance.
The influence of these factors varies across regions and social
groups. Given the limitations with the data used in this study, it 
is impossible to identify which factors drove the reporting 
behavior of victims during the 1983-98 period.

Clearance rates in 1998 were lower than in 1983 across all the
offenses under study. Research shows that in general, clearance
rates are negatively associated with crime rates and relative size
of police (Phillips, 1978, Vandaele, 1978, Carr-Hill and Stern, 1979,
Gyimah-Brempong, 1989). Our results point toward clearance rates
that seem to be declining within a framework of stable to increasing
crime rates, but increasing police numbers per 1,000 population.
***Footnote 30: The number of "sworn" police officers per 1,000 
resident total population has increased from 216.5 in 1983 to 
229.5 in 1998 (Australian Institute of Criminology).  This
represents an average increase of 0.4% a year.*** This confirms
that contrary to what is suggested by the results from crime
surveys, crime has increased in Australia over the past 20 years.

Australian data seem to confirm the finding in Farrington, Langan,
and Wikstrom (1994) of a negative correlation between crime rates
and risk of conviction.***Footnote 31:  Spearman correlation
coefficients were negative and above 0.8 for burglary, vehicle theft,
serious assault, rape and homicide.*** Except for robbery, the
average arrested criminal faced a lower risk of conviction in 1998
than in 1983. For robbery, the probability of conviction (given 
arrest) has remained stable over the same period.

Imprisonment rates for convicted offen-ders of burglary, vehicle
theft, and serious assault were higher in 1998 than in 1983. The
rate of incarceration for robbery and rape did not change
significantly between periods, whereas there was a decline in the
risk of a prison sentence for homicide. There is a negative
correlation between the risks of conviction and incarceration, which
suggests a tendency toward using alternative forms of punishment.

The sentence length increased for the offenses of homicide and
vehicle theft and decreased for the offenses of robbery and rape.
Sentence lengths for the remaining offenses have not shown
significant changes over the period investigated.

Sentenced offenders spent longer times in prison in 1998 than in
1993. Robbery and rape are the exception. Among those serving
imprisonment terms for robbery the time served in prison declined
while the average time served in prison for rape has remained
stable.

The overall risk of punishment associated with the commission of
burglary, vehicle theft, serious assault, and homicide increased.
Burglary and vehicle theft had the lowest clearance rates. These
results support the argu-ment by Becker (1968) that sentences
should be longer when arrest rates are lower. Homicide is the most
serious offense against the person, followed by the infliction of
violence against the person (serious assault). This explains the 
high risk of incarceration associated with the commission of these
crimes.

Changes in crime and punishment are no doubt related to social
and economic conditions. Does the sustained economic growth
experienced by the Australian economy during the 1990's explain
the observed stability in crime rates? In which way does this 
stability relate to the many factors in the literature? Lack of 
appropriate data pre- vented us from examining these issues.

VI. Conclusion

This paper provides national estimates for the flow of offenders
through the Australian criminal justice system, from the commission
of crimes through police recording and conviction to imprisonment,
for six offenses and for the period from 1983-2000. Despite being
the best source of comparable statistics across states and 
territories, in Australia available crime survey data are not 
adequate to perform comparisons over time, due in particular to 
lack of consistency in methodology and changes to the wording of
questions across surveys.

The findings indicate that trends in crime survey data are not
always consistent with trends in crime recorded by police. This
study has identified differences in the crime definitions used in
national crime surveys and those used in the development of
statistical collections as a factor likely to explain discrepancies
between these sources.

Due to the presence of sampling error, incidence rates estimated
from different crime surveys are not statistically different. The 
same occurs with esti-mates of the proportion of crimes reported 
to the police. In the cases of residential burglary and vehicle 
theft, police statistics also support the finding that incidence 
rates have remained stable over the last 20 years.

For the offenses of robbery, assault and rape trends in crime survey
esti-mates are at odds with the trends in recorded crime statistics.
Our findings suggest that the incidence of these offenses has
increased between 1983 and 1998, given the relatively large
increases in the rates of crimes recorded by police.

Homicide is an offense for which the problems of simultaneously
dealing with survey and recorded crime data is not present. The
findings support the hypothesis that the incidence of homicide 
has remained stable over the 1983-1998 period.

Primarily, crime rates are the outcome of offender decision making.
A stable crime rate results from stability in the number of active
offenders, or in the numbers of crime committed by offenders
during a given period of time, or both. Consequently, increases in
crime rates can reflect an increase in the pool of active offenders
or in the activity rate of these offenders, or both. The supply of
offenders is affected by the supply of opportunities to offend. 

The decisions made within each of the interconnected (but
autonomous) components of the criminal justice system (i.e. police,
courts, corrections) may have different effects on the achievement
of the goals of reducing opportunities for crime, incapacitating
active offenders, and deterring offending among the crime-free.
Measurement of these effects requires one to have access to
uniform crime statistics across all the components of the criminal
justice system.

In Australia uniform statistics on recorded crime have been collected 
since 1993. Correctional statistics are limited to annual inmate 
counts from the prison census (available since 1982) and monthly 
statistics on average daily numbers of prisoners and sentenced 
admissions (available since 1977). Data on released prisoners and 
data on times served are not readily available. National court 
statistics are practically nonexistent apart from a limited 
collection on higher courts. All these limitations with existing
national comparable make it difficult to study the flow of 
offenders through the criminal justice system in order to answer 
questions relative to crime and punishment.

Analyzing the flow of offenders through the criminal justice system
underlies the notion that individuals weigh the costs and benefits of
engaging in criminal behavior. This translates into rational
judgments about the risk of offending. This paper uses three indi-
cators for the risk of offending. The probability of apprehension, 
in particular apprehension by arrest, is one measure of the risk of
offending (Becker, 1968; Ehrlich, 1973). The clearance rate is used
as a proxy for the risk of arrest. Clearance rates have declined
across all the offenses included in this study between 1983 and
1998. The exact nature of observed changes in clearance rates
over time is a topic requiring further research.

The other two indicators relate to the overall risk of offending. One
is the average time served in prison per convicted offender. This
measure is calculated conditional on a criminal being arrested, then
convicted, and finally, sentenced to a term of imprisonment. The
other is the average time served per offense, which measures risk
of crime for any offender, whether processed by the criminal justice
system, or not.

In general the most serious crimes of homicide and serious assault,
together with the property offenses of burglary and vehicle theft
carry increased risks of offending. For the offenses of robbery and
rape, the overall risk of offending has not changed between 1983
and 1998.

Given the lack of knowledge about variation in outcomes and
severity of the criminal justice system, potential criminals might
perceive that the risks of offending are low. However, little is 
known in Australia about offending behavior, decision-making and 
criminal careers. Enhancing knowledge on these issues is crucial 
to the conduct of research on the deterrent and incapacitative 
effects of the criminal justice system.

At a more fundamental level, the main purpose of a criminal justice
system is not to punish those who transgress the law, but to deliver
justice. In the same way, to the eyes of citizens, the purpose of
police is not arresting more criminals, but enhancing community
safety. More police does not necessarily result in more arrests or
lower crime rates. Identifying and understanding of the factors 
that drive perceptions of public safety is key to the development 
of cost-efficient alternatives to increasing police expenditure.

The lack of comprehensive uniform statistics has negative consequences 
for the conduct of research on crime and justice. There is need to 
develop integrated statistical collections to gather data across the 
whole criminal justice system and over time. Ideally, these collections 
should use longitudinal or panel designs to enable the study of
interrelationships between the different components of the criminal 
justice system and the testing of causal theories of crime and 
punishment.

Acknowledgments

I am very grateful to Ibolya Losoncz for assistance with data
collection. I am also grateful to Dr. Peter Grabosky, Dr. Toni
Makkai, Dr. Gloria Laycock and Dr. Pat Mayhew for critical
comments and editorial assistance with earlier versions of the
paper. Any remaining errors are my sole responsibility.
Appendix A: Data sources

Data used in this study came from the following sources:

Crime victimization National crime victim surveys conducted in
1983, 1993 and 1998 (Australian Bureau of Statistics 1986, 1994b,
1999b, 1999d). Crime victim surveys conducted annu-ally in New
South Wales in 1990-1992, 1994-1997, 1999-2000 (Australian
Bureau of Statistics, 1991-2001).

Recorded crime Data for 1983 were obtained from Mukherjee and
Dagger (1991). Data for 1993 and 1998 were obtained from annual
reports published by police services, except for New South Wales
where data are published by the NSW Bureau of Crime Statistics
and Research (1994a, 1999a).

Crimes reported to police National crime victim surveys
conducted in 1983, 1993, and 1998 (Australian Bureau of Statistics
1986, 1994b, 1999b, 1999d), and official crime statistics as
specified in 2.

Population data Estimated resident population at 30 June each
year (Australian Bureau of Statistics 1994c, 2000b).

Cleared offenses Derived from official crime statistics published
in the states (refer to text for an explanation of the process 
followed to derive these data).

Convictions and imprisonment sentences Court statistics
published in New South Wales (NSW Bureau of Crime Statistics
and Research 1994b, 1999b) and South Australia (Office of 
Crime Statistics 1984a, 1984b, 1984c, 1984d, 1994, 1999a, 1999b). 
(refer to text for an explanation of the process followed to 
derive these data).

Length of sentence and time served  National Prison Census
(Australian Institute of Criminology 1983-1995; Australian 
Bureau of Statistics 1994-1999c).

Homicide data  Australian Institute of Criminology, National
Homicide Monitoring Program (Unit Record File).

Appendix D: Data adjustment procedures

1. Estimates of rape 

Crime victim surveys

National crime surveys collect data for the more generic offenses
of assault and sexual assault. Sexual assault questions are asked
of females 18 years and older and refer to incidents that can be
classified into the categories of rape, attempted rape, indecent
assault, and offensive behavior. How- ever victims are not asked
about the nature of the reported sexual assault. This information 
is sought of sexual assault incidents reported in the International
Crime Victims Survey (ICVS). 

As mentioned in the text, among inci-dents of sexual assault, data
from the Australian component of the ICVS show incidents of rape
and attempted rape were 19% in 1988, 36% in 1991, and 25% in
1999. The average 27% from these surveys was applied to the
estimates of sexual assault from the national crime survey to 
derive an estimate of numbers of rape. 

Crime recorded by police

Data on numbers of incidents of rape are available from annual
reports pub- lished by police services Australia wide. Statistics
containing crime rates and numbers for this offense were first
collated and published in Mukherjee and Dagger (1990).

Recorded crime statistics published by the Australian Bureau of
Statistics since 1993 are victim based counts of victims of sexual
assault. These data show that, consistently, 80% of the victims of
sexual assault recorded by police during a given year are women
18 years and older. The crime survey question on sexual assault is
asked of women 18 years and older.

In order to obtain an estimate of the number of rapes recorded by
police matching the definition of rape used to derive the crime
survey estimates, police data for each of the years included in 
this study were multiplied by a factor of 80%. 

2. Estimates of serious assault

Crime victim survey

The national crime surveys conducted by the Australian Bureau
of Statistics asked a question about the generic offense of
assault. This included incidents of violence, as well as threats 
of violence. This study focused on serious assault, sometimes
referred to as aggravated assault. Data from the surveys showed
that violence against the victim occurred in 27% (1983), 38%
(1993), and 39% (1998)of all recorded incidents. These factors
were used to develop estimates of numbers of incidents of
serious assault.

Crime recorded by police

Data on the number of incidents of serious assault were obtained
from the annual reports published by the Australian police services.
These data include all the incidents of serious assault, irrespective
of the age of the victim.

Recorded crime statistics published by the Australian Bureau of
Statistics since 1993 are victim based counts of victims of sexual
assault. These data consistently showed that 92% of the assault
victims were at least 15 years. 

In order to obtain an estimate of the number of serious assaults
recorded by police that would match the definition of rape used to
derive the crime survey estimates, police data for each year in this
study were multiplied by a factor of 92%.

3. Burglary, vehicle theft, and robbery: Derivation of recorded
crime counts for offenses equal to the crime survey definitions

Burglary

Counts of police-recorded residential burglaries include actual
break in, and attempted break in. Crime survey data show that
numbers of actual bur- glary are 1.5 times the numbers for
attempted burglary. This factor was used to adjust the counts for
burglary recorded by police in 1983 and 1993. 

Vehicle theft

Data from the 1993 National Crime and Safety (Australian Bureau of 
Statistics, 1994b) show that private vehicles contributed 90.3% to 
the total number of incidents of vehicle theft that occurred during 
that year. This information was not available for the 1983 and 1998 
crime surveys. It was assumed that the percentage of stolen private 
vehicles had remained stable during the 1983-1998 period. In order 
to obtain a count of incidents of police-recorded vehicle thefts 
matching the survey definition, this factor was used to adjust the 
total number of incidents of vehicle theft recorded by police 
during each survey year.

Robbery

Recorded crime statistics published by the Australian Bureau of
Statistics (1999a) show that a person was the victim of 78% of 
all robberies that occurred during 1998. The same data show that
92% of personal victims were 15 years and older. Total robberies
recorded by police include persons and organizations. Persons
involved in these incidents can be of any age. The number of
police-recorded robberies perpetrated on persons 15 years and
older was obtained by adjusting the total number of recorded
robberies by a factor of 72% that resulted from the product of
78% (personal victims) times 92%(victims 15 years and older). 

4. Crimes cleared and numbers of offenders

As mentioned in the main text, data on distinct offenders and
numbers of crimes recorded during a year and cleared by arrest
during the same year were not available for all the jurisdictions.
Victoria and South Australia were the jurisdictions for which this
type of data was readily available for the 3 years include in this
study.

Data on numbers of offenders refer to distinct persons associated 
with crimes cleared, therefore the average number of offenders per 
offense could be less than one. In order to avoid this situation, 
the assumption was made that at least one offender was involved in 
those crimes recorded during a year that were yet to be cleared.

During 1983 the clearance rates and the average number of offenders 
per offense were population-weighted averages of Victoria and South 
Australia. For the years 1993 and 1998, averages were based on data 
for these two states plus data from New South Wales, Queensland, and 
Western Australia.

5. Persons convicted and sentences of imprisonment

Data on numbers of distinct offenders dealt with by courts and
court outcomes were available for New South Wales (NSW)and South 
Australia (SA). The conviction rates during the years 1993 and 
1998 were averages of the NSW and SA rates, and the SA rates were 
used as proxy for the national estimates during 1983.

Data for estimation of numbers of persons sentenced to imprisonment, 
both juvenile and adults, came from the same sources as data on 
convictions. therefore they were affected by problems similar to 
those faced when estimating numbers of persons convicted. The 
imprisonment ratios obtained from these data were applied to the 
national estimates of persons convicted to derive estimates of 
persons sentenced to imprisonment.

6. Number of Crime Survey Offenses

National crime victim surveys were conducted in 1983, 1993, and
1998. These are the 3 years for which survey data on the total
number of offenses are available. This appendix describes the
method followed to develop esti-mates of the number of survey
offen-ses for the remaining years.

Estimates for the periods from 1990-1992, 
1994-1997 and 1999-2000

In New South Wales (NSW), the Australian Bureau of Statistics has
conducted comparable crime victim surveys on an annual basis
since 1990, except for the years 1993 and 1998 for which state data
are available from the national crime survey. These surveys use the
same questionnaire and methodology as the national survey. Obtaining 
estimates of numbers of incidents for the offenses included in the 
national crime victim surveys for the referred periods is equivalent 
to the problem of synthetic estimation within the small-area 
estimation context. Let  denote the unbiased estimate of the number 
of offenses for crime and period and denote the known at risk 
population for crime and period, in New South Wales. In NSW, an 
unbiased estimate of the number of crimes of type per person (or 
household) during period is obtained from the quotient of divided 
by.

Let denote the number of total offenses for crime, and, denote the
known total at risk population in Australia during period. Were
survey data available, estimation of would be feasible. A synthetic
estimator of can be derived under the assumption that remains
constant between two consecutive national surveys. The desired
estimator is given by with variance given by.

Estimates for the period from 1984 to 1989

No crime surveys comparable to the national crime survey were
conducted in Australia during the period from 1984 to 1989. This
section describes the procedure used to obtain an estimate the
number of offenses that took place during the referred period.

The basic assumptions underlying the calculations are:
1. The probability of a crime being reported to the police remained
constant from 1983 to 1992; and
2. The probability of police recording as such a reported crime grew
linearly between 1983 and 1993.

Let and denote the percentage of reported crimes that were recorded 
as such by police in 1983 and 1993 respectively, and denote the 
average growth rate of the recording probability per annum.

Under assumption 2,is obtained from the following expression:

The recording probability for years after 1983 is given by. 

Since the number of survey equivalent crimes recorded by police,
is known for each year between 1984 and 1992, the number of
survey offenses can be estimated from the ratio of to.

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Author

Carlos Alberto Carcach

Until August 2002, Carlos Carcach worked as a Senior Research
Analyst in charge of the Crime and Communities Analysis Program
at the Australian Institute of Criminology, Canberra, Australia. 
He is currently Professor of Statistics and Econometrics at the 
Escuela Superior de Economa y Negocios (ESEN)in El Salvador and 
also works as a consultant to government and private bodies in the
areas of survey design and management, criminology and economics. 
He has published widely in the fields of victimology, fear of 
crime, homicide and crime statistics. His current research
interests include the spatial distribution of violence in
underdeveloped countries, international comparisons, and the 
links between crime and economic growth.

Canada

The main aim of this chapter is to examine trends in crime and
punishment in Canada between 1981 and 1999. We also investigate 
some of the main explanations for changes in crime in Canada 
during the 1990's. Six offenses are studied: homicide, aggravated 
sexual assault, serious assault, robbery, motor vehicle theft, and 
residential burglary.

BACKGROUND

Description

At 10 million square kilometers, Canada is the world's second
largest country, surpassed only by the Russian Federation. In 1999
Canada's population was estimated at 30.5 million. The country's
population density is very low (3 persons per square kilometer in
1999) when compared to other nations. Today, with 80% of
Canadians living in an urban center of 10,000 people or more,
Canada is considered one of the most urbanized countries in the
world.

Canada is a constitutional monarchy, a federal state and parliamentary
democracy. The two houses of Parliament consist of the House of Commons, 
whose members are elected, and the Senate, whose members are appointed. 
Canada has 10 provinces and 3 territories, each with its own capital 
city. Ottawa, the nation's capital, is located in the most populous 
province, Ontario.

All Canadians have free access to health care, except for dental
services. Canada has an extensive social safety network including
old age pension, family allowance, employment insurance, and
welfare benefits. In addition, generous maternity leave is made
available to working mothers. The Canada Labor Code provides
up to 52 weeks of combined maternity and parental leave. The life
expectancy of Canadians is among the highest in the world. In 1999
the life expectancy at birth was 76.3 years for men and 81.7 years
for women.

Canada's two official languages are English and French. However,
many Canadians have a mother tongue other than English or
French including, Chinese, Italian, German, Polish, Spanish,
Portuguese, Punjabi, Ukrainian, Arabic, Dutch, Cree, Inuktitut
(Eskimo), or other languages, reflecting the country's multicultural
and multi-ethnic composition.  
   
Canada's Gross Domestic Product (GDP) was US$624.0 billion in 1999, 
or US$25,900 per person. The average annual growth over 10 years 
(1989-99) was 2.1%. The leading industries in Canada include high-
technology, automobile manufacturing, pulp and paper, iron and steel 
work, machinery and equipment manufacturing, mining, extraction of 
fossil fuels, forestry, agriculture, and tourism. The unemployment 
rate in 1999 was 7.6%
. 
The criminal justice system

In Canada the authority to enact criminal laws and procedures to be
followed in criminal matters is assigned to the federal Parliament by
the Constitution Act,1867 (formerly the British North American Act).
Generally speaking, Canada's 10 provinces and 3 territories have
jurisdiction over the administration of justice, as well as
responsibility for establishing and maintaining a system of provincial
and territorial criminal courts. The federal government is also
involved in the provision of criminal justice services, as described 
in more detail below.

Canada's criminal law is founded in English common law. The
primary source of both substantive and procedural criminal law is
the Criminal Code, which was first enacted in 1892 and has been
continually revised. The Criminal Code sets out two main categories
of offenses: indictable and summary conviction. The main
difference between the two is that indictable offenses (such as
homicide and robbery) are considered more serious and warrant a
more involved and formal trial procedure. A third, less common,
group of offenses is referred to as hybrid, which can be treated as
either indictable or summary conviction depending upon how the
prosecutor elects to proceed.

The structure of the Canadian criminal justice system consists of
many levels and stages of operation. Policing responsibilities in
Canada are divided among many jurisdictions. Canada's federal
police force, the Royal Canadian Mounted Police (RCMP), operates
in all provinces and territories to enforce those federal laws for
which it is responsible (such as Controlled Drugs and Substances
Act and Food and Drugs Act). The RCMP also provides policing
services, under contract, to the three territories and to some
provinces and municipalities. 

The provinces of Ontario, Quebec, and Newfoundland have their
own provincial police forces (Ontario Provincial Police, Sret du
Qubec, and Royal Newfoundland Constabulary, respectively).
They are responsible for enforcing provincial laws as well as most
of the provisions of the Criminal Code. Lastly, regional and
municipal police services are responsible for enforcing municipal
by-laws, provincial laws, and the Criminal Code. Their jurisdiction
tends to be restricted to the municipality. In 1999 there were 
55,300 police officers in Canada, or 181 police officers per 100,000
population (Swol, 1999).

With respect to the hierarchy of criminal courts in Canada, the
lowest level is occupied by justices of the peace who, among other
things, issue summonses and warrants for arrests and hold bail
hearings. The vast majority of criminal trials in Canada take place
before Provincial Court judges in the "inferior" or Provincial 
Courts. Provincial Courts may also include family and small claims
divisions, as well as young offender divisions. 

Actual court structure varies from province to province, as does the 
number and type of divisions within each court. Next in the hierarchy 
are those courts in which both trials are held and appeals heard 
(that is, Supreme or Superior Court). This is the province's highest 
level trial court. The second highest level in the hierarchy of 
criminal courts in the country is comprised of provincial courts of 
appeal that hear appeals from the trial courts as well as lower level 
appeal courts. The highest court in the country, the Supreme Court of 
Canada, hears appeals from provincial Courts of Appeal. Most offenses 
are prosecuted by Crown Attorneys, who are agents of the Attorney
General.

In 1984 the Young Offenders Act (YOA) replaced the Juvenile
Delinquents Act (JDA), which had been the legislative framework for
youth justice in Canada since 1908.***Footnote 1: In February
2002, Canada's federal parliament passed Bill C-7, the Youth
Criminal Justice Act (YCJA), replacing the YOA. The YCJA came
into force on April 1, 2003.*** The minimum age for criminal
responsibility is 12 years. Youths aged 12 to 17 years that are
charged with an offense are prosecuted in youth courts.

Canada has a separate corrections system for young and adult
offenders. Adult correctional services in Canada are divided
primarily between the provincial/territorial and federal governments
on the basis of length of sentence: offenders sentenced to 2 years
or more are placed in federal institutions, and offenders sentenced
to less than 2 years are placed in provincial/territorial correctional
centers.

The various correctional services and facilities can be divided into
two basic categories: custodial and non-custodial. At the federal
level, two agencies provide correctional services for adult offenders.
The Correctional Service of Canada (CSC) is responsible for
administering custodial sentences of 2 years or more. The CSC is
also responsible for supervising federal offenders on conditional
release in the community until the end of their sentences. 

Decisions on conditional release of federal offenders are the
responsibility of the National Parole Board (NPB).  The NPB is an
independent, administrative tribunal that has exclusive authority to
grant, deny, cancel, terminate, or revoke day and full parole.  The
NPB also makes conditional release decisions for offenders in
provinces and territories that do not have their own parole boards.

METHOD

In this section we discuss the many different types of data used
here, how this data was obtained, any problems of comparability
over time and between relevant data types, and any adjustments 
we made to improve comparability.

Police-reported offenses

Official (police-reported) statistics on crime in Canada are collected
by the Canadian Centre for Justice Statistics (CCJS), a division of
Statistics Canada, through the Uniform Crime Reporting (UCR)
Survey.***Footnote 2:  The Canadian Centre for Justice Statistics
uses police-reported offenses to reflect the process of the police
reporting those criminal incidents recorded by the police to the
Uniform Crime Reporting Survey.  Police-reported crime is identical
to police-recorded crime, the latter being the term used by statistical
agencies in other countries to refer to criminal incidents that have
come to the attention of the police and have been recorded by the
police.  In keeping with Canadian government nomenclature, the
term police-reported is used throughout this chapter.***  Begun in
1962, the UCR Survey measures the "incidence of crime in
Canadian society and its characteristics" (Canadian Centre for
Justice Statistics 1999a, p. 7).  

Police compliance with the UCR Survey, since its inception, has
been "virtually 100%."***Footnote 3: There are approximately 1,424
separate police locations responding to the Survey, comprising
about 376 different police forces.  The most significant loss of
information occurs in the rare situation where a police force fails to
submit data to the CCJS.  In this situation, estimates are calculated
for that particular force" (Canadian Centre for Justice Statistics
1999a, p. 69).*** Data collected by the UCR Survey include only
"actual" incidents, both criminal and traffic. "An offense is
considered to be actual' when, following an initial investigation, the
police have confirmed that a criminal offense has occurred" (DuWors 
1997, p. 1). Another important feature of the UCR Survey is
that, in the event of more than one offense occurring in an incident,
the incident is classified by the most serious offense (MSO), which
is "generally the offense which carries the longest maximum
sentence under the Criminal Code of Canada" (Canadian Centre for
Justice Statistics 1999a, p. 7).***Footnote 4:  In categorizing
incidents, violent offences always take precedence over non-violent
offences.  For example, an incident involving both a breaking and
entering offence and an assault is counted as an incident of assault. 
As a result of the MSO scoring rule, less serious offences are
under-counted by the UCR Survey" (Canadian Centre for Justice
Statistics, 1999a, p.7).  Furthemore, "violent crime counts reflect the
number of victims in the incident, whereas non-violent counts reflect
the number of incidents or occurrences of crime" (Tremblay, 1999,
p. 3).*** Homicide. First degree murder, second degree murder,
manslaughter, and infanticide are included under the offense of
homicide (Fedorowycz, 2000). Homicide incidents, as reported
throughout this chapter, only include completions.

Arguably, changes to legislation that have had the greatest impact
on homicide in Canada have been those that have added further
restrictions to the accessability and availability of firearms.***
Footnote 5:  For an overview of Canadian and international
research on the impact of the availability of firearms on homicide,
see Gabor (1994, 1995).*** The potential impact of firearms controls
on homicide in Canada stem, in large part, from firearms
accounting for about a third of all homicides and shooting being the
most common method of homicide.

Between 1981 and 1999, two major firearms laws were enacted. In
response to the killing of 14 women by an armed man at the cole
Polytechnique in Montreal on December 6, 1989, Bill C-17 came
into effect in 1991.***Footnote 6:  For writings on the killings in
1989, see Malette and Chalouh (1991).*** This law introduced
stricter controls on the availability and accessability of a range 
of firearms (for example, rifles and assault weapons) and increased
criminal sanctions to deter offenders from using firearms in the
commission of crimes (Canadian Centre for Justice Statistics,
1999c, p. 8).

In 1997 the second major piece of firearms legislation, Bill C-68,
came into effect. It created a new Firearms Act and made a number
of amendments to the Criminal Code of Canada, most notably,
introducing mandatory sentences for those convicted of using
firearms in the commission of crimes.  Other changes included the
following: all firearm owners having to obtain a firearm license (by
January 2001), all firearms having to be registered by the end of a
5-year period (1998 to 2003), and the prohibition of a number of
different types of handguns (Canadian Centre for Justice Statistics
1999a, p. 72; 1999c, p. 8).

Aggravated sexual assault. This offense "results in wounding,
maiming, disfiguring or endangering the life of the victim"
(Integration and Analysis Program 1999, p. 3). Police-reported
incidents of aggravated sexual assault include both completions
and attempts.

In 1983 a new statute (Bill C-127) under the Criminal Code of
Canada was enacted, which introduced three new offenses to
address sexual assault, abolishing the previous offenses of rape,
attempted rape, and indecent assault. The three new offenses
were: "sexual assault (s. 271); sexual assault with a weapon,
threats to a third party or causing bodily harm (s. 272); and
aggravated sexual assault (s. 273)" (Mohr and Roberts, 1994, p. 6).
The three new offenses corresponded with different levels of
severity of victimization: level 1, level 2, and level 3, respectively.

"The purpose of these changes was to de-emphasize the sexual
nature of the offense, to stress the violent and assaultive nature of
such crimes, to encourage victims to report incidents to the police,
and to improve police and court handling of cases, thereby reducing
the trauma to victims and increasing the number of convictions. In
addition, as a result of the changes, both men and women can now
be victims of sexual assault and spousal immunity' no longer exists.
Prior to 1983, a victim of what was then rape could only be a
woman and a man could not be charged with raping his wife"
(Integration and Analysis Program 1999, p. 2). Because of the
substantial differences between pre- and post-1983 definitions of
this offense, our examination of police records begins with 1983.

Serious assault. Bill C-127, the same legislative enactment that
introduced revised sexual assault statutes in 1983, also produced,
in the same year, several different categories of assault: "common
assault (level 1), assault with a weapon or causing bodily harm
(level 2), aggravated assault (level 3), and other assaults (i.e.,
assault on a peace officer, unlawfully causing bodily harm,
discharge of firearm with intent and all other assaults)" (Tremblay,
1999, p. 7).  Aggravated assault, the most serious category of
assault offenses (level 3), is defined as "[a]ny of a variety of 
serious assaults or particularly reprehensible behavior calling for 
a more severe punishment" (Yogis, 1983, p. 20).

To produce a measure of serious assault we have combined assault 
levels 2 and 3. Police-reported incidents of serious assault
include both completions and attempts. Prior to 1983, serious
assaults were not recorded separately from other assaults;
therefore, our examination of police records begins with 1983.
    
Robbery. The legal definition of robbery is "theft with violence or 
the threat of violence against persons"  (Du Wors, 1992, p. 2), and, 
for police records, includes robberies committed with firearms, 
other weapons (for example, knives), or no weapons.  Police-reported
incidents of robbery include both completions and attempts.

Over the period under study (1981 to 1999), there have been no
changes to the specific laws governing robbery; however, as with
the offense of homicide, the legislative changes (during this time
period) that have had potentially the greatest impact on robbery in
Canada have been those that have added further restrictions to the
accessability and availability of firearms (see above). The potential
impact of firearms controls on robbery stem, in part, from their use
in the commission of robberies, although the majority of all
robberies do not involve firearms.

Motor Vehicle Theft. For police records, motor vehicle theft "consists 
of taking a vehicle without the owner's authorization. A motor vehicle 
is defined as a car, truck, van, bus, recreational vehicle, semi-
trailer truck, motorcycle, construction machinery, agricultural 
machinery or other land-based motorized vehicle such as an all-terrain
vehicle, a go-kart, a dune buggy or a snowmobile" (Sauv 1998, p. 2).
Police-reported incidents of motor vehicle theft include both 
completions and attempts. For the period under study, there have been 
no changes to the specific laws governing motor vehicle theft.

Residential burglary. There are three categories of police-reported
burglary, also referred to as break and enter in Canada: residential,
commercial or business, and other. Residential, the focus of this
chapter, refers to "[t]he breaking and entering of a private
residence, including single homes, garden homes, apartments,
cottages, mobile homes, rooming houses, etc."  Commercial refers
to "[t]he breaking and entering of a facility used for commercial or
public affairs. These include, for example, financial institutions,
stores, and non-commercial enterprises such as government
buildings, schools, churches, and non-profit agencies." Other types
of burglary refer to "[t]he breaking and entering of private property
structures (e.g. shed, detached garages) or storage and transport
facilities" (Kong, 1998a, p. 3, box 2). 

Police-reported incidents of residential burglary include both
completions and attempts. For the period under study, there have
been no changes to the laws governing residential burglary or
burglary in general.

Victim survey offenses

Unlike the United States and England and Wales, Canada has had
only recent, infrequent experience in carrying out national
victimization surveys. Three national victimization surveys have
been carried out: the first for 1987, the second for 1992, and the
third for 1998.

Each survey, a component of Statistics Canada's General Social
Survey (GSS), carried out telephone interviews with persons aged
15 years or older to gauge their experiences with crime and the
criminal justice system over the previous 12 months.***Footnote 7: 
Households were the independent variable:  "Once a household
was chosen, an individual 15 years or older was selected randomly
to respond to the survey" (Besserer and Trainor 2000, p. 15).*** In
addition to the age limit, the sample for all three surveys was
confined to households with telephones, persons not
institutionalized, and inhabitants of the 10 Canadian provinces (not
including the 3 territories -- Yukon, Northwest Territories, and
Nunavut). For the 1998 survey, this resulted in excluding
approximately 2% of the Canadian population, which, as noted by
Besserer and Trainor (2000, p. 15), "is not large enough to
significantly change the [victimization] estimates."  A similar
percentage of the Canadian population was excluded from the
previous two surveys.

For each of the first two surveys, there were approximately 10,000
respondents; for the third survey, there was a substantial increase
in the number of respondents, approximately 26,000.  For the 1998
survey, the response rate was 81%. Reasons for nonresponse
included refusal to participate, no answer, or could not speak
English or French (Besserer and Trainor 2000, p. 16). Similar
response rates were achieved for the previous two surveys.  Each
survey collected information on eight categories of crimes: sexual
assault, robbery, assault, residential burglary, motor vehicle theft,
theft of household property, theft of personal property, and
vandalism. "Incidents involving more than one type of offense, for
example a robbery and an assault, are classified according to the
most serious offence. The rank of offences from most to least
serious is sexual assault, robbery, assault, break and enter, motor
vehicle/parts theft, theft of personal property, theft of household
property and vandalism.  Incidents are classified based on the
respondent's answers to a series of questions. For example, did
anyone threaten you with physical harm in any way? How were you
threatened?" (Besserer and Trainor 2000, p. 3, box 1). (We discuss
below the definitions of and any changes over time in the first five 
of these offenses.)

Two other important issues concerning these victim surveys are
scale and sampling error. In the 1998 survey, the largest of the 3
national victim surveys, each respondent represented about 1,000
people in the Canadian population. For the 1987 and 1992 surveys,
the scale-up factor was much greater: each respondent represented
approximately 2,100 and 2,200 people in the Canadian population,
respectively. The figure for 1998 was provided by Besserer and
Trainor (2000, p. 6, box 4). 

The figures for 1987 and 1992 were calculated by dividing the
number of people age 15 and over -- using data from Statistics
Canada (2000) and adjusted for the surveys not covering 2% of the
Canadian population -- by the number of survey respondents
(approximately 10,000 for each survey), and rounding to the nearest
100. Concerning sampling error, the measure used in reporting on
estimates from the 1998 survey was the coefficient of variation
(CV), and any estimate that had a CV of greater than 33.3% was
considered "too unreliable to be published" (Besserer and Trainor
2000, p. 6, box 4).***Footnote 8:  The CV gives an indication of the
uncertainty associated with an estimate" (Besserer and Trainor
2000, p. 6, box 4).*** We were not successful in obtaining
information on the sampling error used in reporting on the findings
of the 1987 and 1992 surveys.
    
We also report on the findings of a fourth victim survey, Canada's
first large-scale victimization survey, the Canadian Urban
Victimization Survey (CUVS). The CUVS was administered in 1982
to over 61,000 persons age 16 years or older in 7 major urban
centers across the country (Greater Vancou-ver, Edmonton,
Winnipeg, Toronto, Montreal, Halifax-Dartmouth, and St. John's).
Information was collected on the respondents' experiences during
1981 for the same eight crime categories as in the three national
victimization surveys.

The CUVS used telephone interviews. In addition to not interviewing 
people under age 16, the CUVS sample excluded households without 
telephones, commercial premises, and institutions such as penitentiaries 
and psychiatric hospitals. In the 7 cities where the CUVS was administered,
the resident population (aged 16 and over) was just under 5 million, 
so each respondent represented approximately 80 people (4,975,900 
divided by 61,000). We were not successful in obtaining information 
about the response rate or the sampling error.

To make the CUVS comparable to the national victim surveys, we
had to scale down the CUVS crime rates. We first calculated, for
the five offenses of sexual assault, assault, robbery, motor vehicle
theft, and residential burglary and the 3 years of national surveys
(1987, 1992, and 1998), the proportion of national victim survey
rates of urban victim survey rates. We then multiplied the mean
proportion (for all 5 crimes) by the relevant CUVS rate per 1,000
population. The estimated 1981 national victimization rates per
1,000 population (ages 16 and over) are listed by crime type. For
each crime the estimated national rate is lower than the urban rate
from the CUVS.

Aggravated sexual assault. Only one of the four victim surveys
conducted in Canada to date and used here -- one large-scale
urban (1981) and three national (1987, 1992, and 1998)
surveys--***Footnote 9:  These surveys were administered in 1982,
1988, 1993, and 1999, respectively.  In reporting on these surveys,
we have used the time period in which the surveys were probing:
1981 for the 1982 survey, 1987 for the 1988 survey, approximately
1992 for the 1993 survey, and 1998 for the 1999 survey.  Gartner
and Doob (1994), in their comparison of the 1987 and 1992
surveys, use the years the surveys were administered.  The year
1992 is approximate for the following reason:  "The 1993 survey
carried out over the 12 months of 1993 asked about victimizations
which occurred in the previous 12 months -- in this case, the 1-year
period often spanned two calendar years, 1992 and 1993" (Gartner
and Doob 1994, p. 4, footnote 1).*** measured rape or aggravated
sexual assault. This was the Canadian Urban Victimization Survey
(CUVS) of 1981 (Solicitor General Canada 1983). The definition of
sexual assault used in this survey was as follows: "Sexual assault
includes rape, attempted rape, molesting, or attempted molestation"
(Solicitor General Canada 1984, p. 12). Because the CUVS was
administered prior to the changes of the sexual assault laws in
1983, its definition of sexual assault differed substantially from the
definitions used in the national victimization surveys that took place
after the new laws were introduced. For the three national surveys,
respondents were asked if they had been the victim of sexual
assault in general, which is more comparable to the legal definition
that includes all three levels of the offense category.  We were not
able to make adjustments to either set of victim surveys (pre- and
post-1983) to make this offense comparable over the full
complement of years (1981 to 1998).

The 1987 questions on sexual assault were changed in the two
subsequent surveys of 1992 and 1998, thus making this offense not
completely comparable over this period of time.  The most drastic
change occurred between 1987 and 1992. Gartner and Doob (1994,
p. 4) summarized the changes to the sexual assault questions,
which also had implications for the assault questions:
"[I]n the 1988 survey, respondents were asked about being
attacked'. They were told that an attack can be anything from being
hit, slapped, pushed or grabbed, to being shot, raped or beaten'. In
1993, a similar question was asked but the word raped' was
omitted from the list of examples of an attack'.  However, in
addition, two further questions were asked: ...has anyone forced
you or attempted to force you into any sexual activity when you did
not want to, by threatening you, holding you down or hurting you in
some way...' and ...has anyone ever touched you against your will
in any sexual way.  By this I mean anything from unwanted touching
or grabbing to kissing or fondling.'"
 
In the 1992 survey, sexual assault was described as "[s]exually
assaulted, molested or attempt to sexually assault or molest"
(Gartner and Doob 1994, p. 3). In the 1998 survey, the definition of
sexual assault was slightly altered to -- "[f]orced sexual activity, an
attempt at forced sexual activity, or unwanted sexual touching,
grabbing, kissing or fondling" (Besserer and Trainor 2000, p. 2, box
1). Another change to the 1998 survey was the addition of a
"specialized series of questions to measure sexual and physical
assault by a current or former spouse/partner" (Besserer and
Trainor 2000, p. 6, box 3). Besserer and Trainor (2000) in their
report on the 1998 survey excluded, in most cases, incidents of
sexual and physical assault obtained from the specialized and more
general series of questions, thus making the 1992 and 1998
findings on sexual assault (and assault) more comparable. In all
four victim surveys, data available on sexual assaults only included
completed incidents.

Serious assault. Not all of the victim surveys used comparable
definitions of assault, and the definitions used are more comparable
to the legal definition that includes all three levels of the offense
category (total assaults).  However, we were able to adjust survey
records of assault so that they would be comparable to police
records. This involved multiplying total victim survey assault
incidents by 0.2, which is the mean percentage of levels 2 and 3 of
total (levels 1, 2, and 3) police-reported assaults for 1983 to 1999.

As noted above, the most extensive changes to the definition of
assault, which corresponded with the changes to sexual assault,
were for the 1992 survey. Assault was described as an incident in
which "[a] weapon was present or there was an attack (anything
from being hit, slapped, grabbed or knocked down to being shot or
beaten up) or threat of an attack" (Gartner and Doob 1994, p. 3). 
(See above for the definition of assault used in the 1987 survey.) 
The definition of assault used in the CUVS of 1981 was as follows:
"Assault involves the presence of a weapon or an attack or threat.
Assault incidents may range from face-to-face verbal threats to an
attack with extensive injuries" (Solicitor General Canada 1984, p.
12). For the 1998 survey, the definition of assault was as follows:
"An attack (victim hit, slapped, grabbed, knocked down, or beaten),
a face-to-face threat of physical harm, or an incident with a weapon
present" (Besserer and Trainor 2000, p. 3, box 1). This definition
differs slightly from that used in the 1992 survey, by the coverage of
only "face-to-face" threats; in the 1992 survey, "all threats, including
those that were not face-to-face, were included in the definition of
assault" (Besserer and Trainor 2000, p. 2). In all four victim surveys,
data available on assaults only included completed incidents.

Robbery. For victim survey reports, the definition of robbery has
remained relatively stable over the period of time under study. For
example in the 1981 survey, an incident was recorded as a robbery
if "something is taken and the offender has a weapon or there is a
threat or an attack" (attempts were also included) (Solicitor General
Canada 1984, p. 12), and in the 1998 survey, robbery was
described as "[t]heft or attempted theft in which the perpetrator had
a weapon or there was violence or the threat of violence against the
victim" (Besserer and Trainor 2000, p. 2, box 1). Victim survey
incidents of robbery include both completions and attempts.

Motor vehicle theft. The definition of victim survey reports of motor
vehicle theft is identical to the definition used for police records, 
with the exception that the former includes theft or attempted theft 
of motor vehicle parts or accessories (e.g., wheels, hood ornament,
steering wheel) (Sauv 1998, p. 5). Of the four victim surveys, only
the 1981 survey did not include in its definition theft of motor vehicle
parts. We were able to remove incidents of thefts of parts for the
victim surveys of 1987, 1992, and 1998, thus making all four victim
surveys and police-reported and victim survey incidents comparable. 

For the 1987 victim survey, data were not available to enable us 
to remove incidents of attempted thefts of motor vehicle parts. We
were, however, able to produce an estimate of the number of
attempted thefts of motor vehicles for the 1987 survey (58,789),
which was done by multiplying the mean proportion of attempted
thefts of motor vehicles of attempted thefts of motor vehicles and
parts for the 1992 and 1999 surveys (0.64) with the total number of
incidents of attempted thefts of motor vehicles and parts for the
1987 survey (91,858). Victim survey incidents of motor vehicle theft
include both completions and attempts.

Residential burglary. The four victim surveys focused on residential
burglary, and the definition has not changed over time. The
definition of residential burglary is identical for police records and
victim survey reports. Victim survey incidents of residential burglary
include both completions and attempts.

Convictions

Besides the collection of official crime statistics, CCJS is also
responsible for the collection, analysis, and dissemination of youth
and adult court statistics.  In the present study, the number of
persons convicted for each offense is derived from the Youth Court
Survey (YCS) and the Adult Criminal Court Survey (ACCS).  

The YCS maintains a national database of statistical information on
charges, cases, and persons involving accused who are 12 to 17
years of age (Canadian Centre for Justice Statistics 1998, p.
Xiv).***footnote 10:  The YCS collects data from all youth courts in
Canada.  However, "(t)hese data must be interpreted as indicators
of caseload and case characteristics rather than precise caseload
measures" (Canadian Centre for Justice Statistics 1998, p.xvii). 
Although jurisdictions do their best to inform the YCS of suspected
reporting problems and/or anomalies, the level of underreporting
(that is, charges not reported to the survey) is not known.  For
example, in 1991-92, the Province of Ontario reported a 15%
under-coverage (Canadian Centre for Justice Statistics 1998, p.
vi).*** Youth court data were available for 1991 to 1999.

Similarly, the ACCS provides a national database of statistical
information on the processing of adult criminal court cases. There
are several limitations of the ACCS, however. 

First, 3 of the 10 provinces (British Columbia, Manitoba, and New
Brunswick) do not participate in the survey. The jurisdictions that 
do presently report to the ACCS represent approximately 80% of the
national adult criminal court caseload. Second, data from "Quebec's
140 municipal courts, which account for approximately 20% of
federal statute charges in that province, are not yet collected. 
Finally, with the exception of [the province of] Alberta, no data are
provided from the superior courts" (Roberts and Grimes 2000, p.
18). This last limitation has the effect of underestimating the 
severity of sentences. "The reason for this," according to Roberts 
and Grimes (2000, p. 18), "is that some of the most serious cases,
which are likely to result in the most severe sanctions, will be
processed in superior courts."  Because the data that were available
-- adult criminal court data were only available for 1994 to 1999 --
suffered from the same limitations, comparisons over time are not
affected.

To allow for comparisons with other countries, court data from both
the YCS and the ACCS were aggregated (except for sentence length). 
However, there are several definitional and methodological
differences between the two micro-data surveys. For example,
according to CCJS (2001, p. 1), "one of the most difficult issues
arising when comparing statistics [from the YCS and ACCS] is that,
regardless of data quality, the use of different "units of count"
complicates the interpretation of outputs." As a result, CCJS
stresses that end users of its data must exercise caution when
comparing statistics from the YCS and ACCS. This caveat seems to
apply even more when aggregating data from both court surveys.  

For the purposes of the present study, other limitations of the 
two court surveys should be noted. Unlike the UCR survey, the YCS
and ACCS do not distinguish between the different categories of
burglary (such as residential, commercial, and other).

As a result, all burglaries are reported in the courts data. In 
addition, for the offense of motor vehicle theft, court records are 
not limited to theft of motor vehicles that operate on land, but 
also include theft of boats. 
 
Probability of custody

The number of persons sentenced to custody for each offense is
derived from the YCS and ACCS. The probability of an offender
receiving a custodial sentence upon conviction was calculated by
dividing the number of offenders sentenced to custody for a
particular offense by the number of persons convicted for that
offense.

In 1996 several sentencing reforms came into force. One of the key
elements of this initiative was the creation of a new sentencing
option:  the conditional sentence of imprisonment. "Judges in
Canada now have the discretion to allow some offenders sentenced
to terms of imprisonment to spend the sentence in the community
under supervision. . . . The ACCS is currently being adapted to
include the [future] collection of data on conditional sentences 
of imprisonment" (Roberts and Grimes 2000, p. 3).

Sentence length and time served

Sentence length data are derived from the YCS and ACCS. YCS and ACCS 
data pertaining to average sentence length were not aggregated since 
the sentencing guidelines for judges are very different when it comes 
to youth and adults convicted of a particular offense. Consequently,
comparative data analysis of sentence length between the two offender
populations is difficult to undertake. 
 
In this chapter custodial sentence length for young offenders was
obtained by calculating the mean between the average number of
days of secure custody sentences and the average number of days
of open custody sentences. Secure custody refers to facilities
designated for secure restraint, while open custody refers to
placement in a residential center or group home setting (Sanders
2000, p.3).

In Canada young offenders generally can receive a maximum custodial 
sentence length of 2 years. "However, this sentence can be three 
years if the crime would normally carry a maximum penalty of life 
imprisonment in adult court. In addition, the most serious crimes . 
. . carry higher sentences.  [For example], [f]irst-degree
murder carries a maximum custodial sentence of six years followed
by four years of conditional supervision" (De Souza 2002a, p. 7).

In the ACCS, adult cases sentenced to life imprisonment are re-coded 
to 9,125 days (or 25 years) for the calculation of sentence lengths, 
means, and medians.

With respect to time served, the Youth Custody and Community
Services (YCCS) survey collects data related to young offenders
serving either a custodial and/or community-based disposition.
Similarly, the Adult Correctional Services (ACS) survey collects
aggregate caseload and case characteristics data for custodial and
non-custodial correctional services at both the federal and provincial
levels. However, both the YCCS and the ACS are limited in that
they cannot provide detailed offense-specific information (for
example, offense-specific time served data).  In an attempt to
overcome this limitation, the present authors went on to secure
offense-specific provincial youth and adult corrections data from two
of the largest jurisdictions (British Columbia and Ontario), and
corrections data pertaining to adults serving a federal sentence 
(2 years or more) from the Correctional Service of Canada (CSC). 
We were unable to produce an accurate estimate of time served
because many definitional and methodological differences separate
the time served data from the various jurisdictions.

With respect to definitional issues, some of the offense categories
appeared to vary from jurisdiction to jurisdiction. For example, one
particular jurisdiction had only one offense entitled "breaking and
entering" related to the average time served data for burglary. In
contrast, another jurisdiction had more than five disaggregated
offense categories related to burglary.  Without having access to,
and being able to study in greater detail, the scoring rules and
offense classification systems of the various jurisdictions where
corrections data are available, it is very difficult to say whether 
or not some, or all, of the burglary-related offenses included by 
the latter jurisdiction are included by the other jurisdictions.

Similarly, several methodological problems are associated with using 
the corrections data from the three jurisdictions noted previously. 
For example, one of the provincial jurisdictions differentiates its 
adult corrections data by time served on a provincial sentence and 
time served in provincial facilities on a federal sentence. However, 
the other provincial jurisdiction does not make this same 
differentiation. As a result, double-counting may be occurring where 
the same case is being included in both the provincial jurisdiction's 
database and the federal jurisdiction's database.

Finally, there were difficulties when one attempted to compare the
corrections-based time served data with the courts-based sentence
length data. For example, in many instances, the average time
served by offenders for a particular offense actually ended up being
significantly more than the custodial sentence length handed down
by the courts. As a result, the authors could not utilize the
corrections data obtained from CSC or the two provinces.

Results

Crime rates from police records

Between 1981 and 1999 the total number of homicides in Canada dropped 
17.2% (from 647 to 536).***Footnote 11: Official crime rates for 1981 
through 1998 are based on revised population estimates -- done by the 
Canadian Centre for Justice Statistics (1999b) -- so there may be some
differences with past publications that have reported on these data.***
Controlling for population increases over this time, this decline in 
homicide incidents corresponds to a 33.3% reduction, from a rate of 
0.03 to 0.02 per 1,000 population.

Between 1983 and 1999 the total number of aggravated sexual assaults 
recorded by the police declined 61.3%, from 550 to 213. Controlling 
for population increases over this time, this translates to a 
reduction by half, from a rate (per 1,000 population) of 0.02 to
0.01. An even greater reduction in aggravated sexual assaults was
evident when only the Canadian female population, age 15 years
and older, was considered: 66.7%, from a rate (per 1,000 females
age 15 and older) of 0.06 in 1983 to a rate of 0.02 in 1999.***
Footnote 12:  We have used this age category instead of 16 years
and older, because Canada's national victimization surveys
interviewed persons age 15 years and older.*** (Not all of the
aggravated sexual assault incidents recorded by police involved a
male perpetrator and a female victim.)

According to the Revised Uniform Crime Reporting (UCRII) Survey,
for 1997, for example, 98% of all individuals accused of sexual
assault (levels 1, 2, and 3 combined) were male (Integration and
Analysis Program 1999, p. 6).***Footnote 13: The UCRII Survey
"collects detailed information on criminal incidents reported to 
a sample of police departments. The data are not nationally
representative.  In 1997, data were collected from 179 police
departments in 6 provinces (New Brunswick, Quebec, Ontario,
Saskatchewan, Alberta, and British Columbia)and represented
about 48% of the national volume of crime" (Integration and
Analysis Program 1999, p. 6).***  In the same year, 84% of all
victims of sexual assault were female (Kong 1998b, p. 7).

In contrast, serious assault rates increased over this time period. 
Between 1983 and 1999, rates of serious assault increased 18.2%,
from 1.1 to 1.3 per 1,000 population.

Over the period 1981 to 1999, the total number of robbery incidents
increased by 9.3% (from 26,292 to 28,745), but the more accurate
measure of change -- rate per capita -- shows a 18.2% decline in
robberies from a rate of 1.1 to 0.9 per 1,000 population.

In 1999 there were 5.3 motor vehicle thefts for every 1,000
Canadians.  This represented a 35.9% increase over the 1981 rate
of 3.9 per 1,000 population.  When expressed as a rate per 1,000
registered motor vehicles, between 1981 and 1999, motor vehicle
thefts increased 42.0%, from 6.9 to 9.8.

Between 1981 and 1999, rates of residential burglary per 1,000
population decreased 25.3%, from 8.7 to 6.5.  Over the same
period, rates of residential burglary per 1,000 households
decreased 32.4%, from 25.3 to 17.1.

Crime rates from victim surveys

The national rates (both per 1,000 population and per 1,000 females 
age 15 years and older) of sexual assault victimization increased
substantially over the 18-year period of 1981 to 1998.***Footnote 14: 
Throughout this chapter, population-based rates for all crimes in the 
1981 victim survey use the age range of 16 and older because the 
survey questioned respondents in this age range.*** In 1981 the rate 
per 1,000 population of sexual assault was 3.4 and in 1998 it was 
20.5. Over the same period, the rate of sexual assault per 1,000 
females increased from 10.6 to 33.2. (The definition of sexual 
assault used in the 1998 survey was much broader than that used in 
the 1981 survey; see above.)

Between 1981 and 1998, national rates (per 1,000 population) of serious
assault victimization decreased ever slightly (4.6%, from 10.8 to 10.3).
Serious assault victimization rates over this time can be characterized 
by three periods: growth from 1981 to 1987 (from 10.8 to 13.7), stability
between 1987 and 1992 (from 13.7 to 13.4), and decline between 1992 and 
1998 (from 13.4 to 10.3).

In contrast to assault, national rates (per 1,000 population) of
robbery victimization remained fairly stable between 1981 and 1998.
Only 1987 marked a departure from this stable situation, with a
robbery rate of 13.1 per 1,000 population. Rates of robbery
victimization in the other 3 years were as follows: 9.2 in 1981, 
9.1 in 1992, and 9.4 in 1998.

Between 1981 and 1998, national rates (per 1,000 population) of motor 
vehicle theft (excluding theft of motor vehicle parts) increased by 
more than half (57.7%; from 7.1 to 11.2). When expressed in rates per 
1,000 registered motor vehicles, motor vehicle thefts, between 1987 
and 1998, increased 93.6% (from 7.8 to 15.1). Rates of motor vehicle 
theft per 1,000 registered motor vehicles could not be calculated for 
the 1981 survey.

From its peak in 1981, the national rate of residential burglary
victimization, whether expressed per 1,000 population or per 1,000
households, was much lower and changed very little in the last
three survey years. In 1981 the rate (per 1,000 population) of
residential burglary was 40.7, and in the next survey year (1987) 
the rate was 26.3, a decrease of more than  a third (35.4%). The
residential burglary rate (per 1,000 population) in the two
subsequent survey years was marginally lower, at 25.2 in 1992 and
24.2 in 1998.

In 1981 the residential burglary rate (per 1,000 households) was
86.3, and in 1987 the rate was 55.2, a decrease of 36.0%. The
residential burglary rate (per 1,000 households) in the two
subsequent survey years was marginally lower, at 51.1 in 1992 and
51.6 in 1998.

Probability of police recording a 
reported offense

Langan and Farrington (1998, p. 11) define the measurement of police 
recording of crime as follows: "Comparison of the volume of crime that 
victims said they reported to police during the year with the volume 
that police actually recorded that year reveals how often police record 
as crimes those incidents that come to their attention." This part 
examines the important issue of the probability of police recording a 
reported offense for four offenses (sexual assault, assault, robbery, 
and residential burglary) and for the 4 years for which victim survey 
data was available (1981, 1987, 1992, and 1998).***Footnote 15: It was 
not possible to calculate the probability of police recording a motor 
vehicle theft, because data was not available on the total number of 
motor vehicle thefts reported to police by victims separate from 
thefts of motor vehicle parts reported to police by victims.***

Police records and victim survey reports for the four offenses were
highly comparable. For robbery and residential burglary, no further
adjustments (than those already noted above) were required to
make police records and victim survey reports comparable.
However, for sexual assault and assault, we were faced with having
to use these aggregate offense categories instead of the desired
subcategories of aggravated sexual assault and serious assault. 
This coverage of police-reported sexual assaults and assaults is
very similar to the types of sexual assaults and assaults included in
the victim surveys. 

For 1981, the year of the CUVS, both victim survey reports and police 
records were based on an urban sample, the seven cities involved in 
the survey. Except for robbery, there appears to be no substantial 
differences in the probability of police recording reported offenses 
for 1981 compared to the other 3 years, which are based on national 
samples. In 1981 the probability of police recording a reported 
robbery was 0.71, and in 1987, 1992, and 1998, it was 0.27, 0.36, 
and 0.28, respectively. Whether this difference in probability 
represents an urban-effect could not be investigated based on the 
data available at the time of writing.

Of the four crimes, sexual assault had the highest mean probability
of police recording a reported offense, 0.78.  The probabilities for
the different years are as follows: 0.71 for 1981; 0.95 for 1992; and
0.67 for 1998.***Footnote 16:  The number of sexual assault
incidents in the 1987 national victim survey was not available,
because the number of incidents was too low to produce statistically
reliable estimates.*** The mean probabilities, from highest to
lowest, for the three other offenses are as follows: 0.60 for
residential burglary, 0.42 for assault, and 0.41 for robbery.

Conviction rates

Expressed as a rate per 1,000 population aged 12 or over, total
(youths and adults combined) burglary convictions have declined
since 1996, with the most significant year-to-year change (-15.9%)
being observed between 1998 and 1999 (from 0.74 to 0.62).

Between 1994 and 1999, the total motor vehicle theft conviction 
rate remained fairly constant, with the exception of a 21.4% 
decrease between 1995 and 1996.The conviction rate for robbery 
increased 50% between 1994 and 1998, but dropped to 0.17 per 1,000
population in 1999. 

The serious assault conviction rate saw a similar steady rise (36%) 
between 1994 and 1998 before declining in 1999. 

The conviction rate of males for aggravated sexual assault
increased 117% between 1994 and 1999. 

The homicide conviction rate showed slight increases and decreases 
throughout the period between 1994 and 1997, but saw a substantial 
increase in 1998.

Probability of custody after 
a conviction

The probability of receiving a custodial sentence after a conviction
for burglary was fairly stable throughout the period between 1994
(54%) and 1999 (50%). The probability of custody following a
conviction for motor vehicle theft remained constant between 1994
and 1996 (24%), but then increased to 30% in 1998 and 1999.

The probability of custody after a conviction for robbery decreased
gradually from its highest level in 1994 (77%) to its lowest level 
in 1999 (63%). 

Similarly, the probability of custody after a conviction for serious
assault saw a consistent, slight downward trend between 1994
(51%) and 1999 (42%). The probability of custody after a conviction
for aggravated sexual assault was 100% in 1994 and 1995, but
dropped significantly in 1996 (63%) and continued to decline until
1998, where it reached its lowest point (55%). 

The probability of custody after a conviction for homicide and
related offenses was fairly high between 1994 and 1999 (around
82%).

Custody rates

The population custody rate (persons sentenced to custody per
1,000 population age 12 or over) for burglary saw slight gradual
decreases between 1996 and 1999, with the largest year-to-year
decrease occurring between 1998 and 1999 (0.37 to 0.31).  

Between 1994 and 1996, there was a slight decrease in the total
custody rate for motor vehicle theft while the period from 1996 
to 1998 saw gradual increases before decreasing again in 1999.  

The total custody rate for robbery increased steadily between 
1994 and 1998, but saw a drop off in 1999.  

The custody rate for serious assault remained fairly constant
between 1994 and 1999.  

The custody rate per 1,000 male population for aggravated sexual
assault fluctuated between 1994 and 1999, reaching its highest
point in 1999 (0.0008 per 1,000 male population; .  

The custody rate for homicide closely resembled the patterns found
in the homicide conviction rate, with increases and decreases
between 1994 and 1997, a dramatic increase in 1998, followed by a
notable decrease in 1999.

Average sentence length

As stated previously, the average length of custodial sentences is
reported separately for youths and adults. The average sentence
length for burglary for young offenders has been on a consistent,
slight decline since 1993, reaching an all-time low of 114 days 
(3.8 months) in 1999. For adults, the average sentence length for
burglary has been consistently increasing since 1997, reaching a
high of 275 days (9.0 months) in 1999. 

The average length of custodial sentences for motor vehicle theft
for young offenders saw a considerable year-to-year decrease
between 1993 (88 days or 2.9 months) and 1994 (65 days or 2.1
months).  For adults, the average sentence length for motor vehicle
theft increased steadily between 1994 and 1996, but the period
between 1996 and 1999 showed no clear trend. 

The average sentence length for robbery for young offenders
peaked in 1993 (202 days or 6.6 months), while the average
sentence length for adult offenders reached its highest level 
(842 days or 27.7 months) in 1994.  

The average sentence length for serious assault for young offenders 
decreased irregularly, from 144 days (4.7 months) in 1991 to 110 
days (3.6 months) in 1999.  For adult offenders, the average
sentence length for serious assault showed no real clear trend over
time, although it reached its highest level in 1995 (166 days or 5.5
months). 

The average sentence length for aggravated sexual assault for male young
offenders showed no discernible pattern between 1991 and 1999, although 
it was highest in 1998 (1,080 days or 35.5 months).  In 1992 and 1994, 
there were no recorded cases of male youth being convicted for 
aggravated sexual assault, while 1997 saw only one case but the young 
offender was not subsequently sentenced to custody. For male adults, 
the average sentence length for aggravated sexual assault increased 
from 2,500 days (82 months) in 1994 to 3,211 days (106 months) in 
1999. The average sentence length for homicide for young offenders 
saw a     considerable year-to-year increase between 1998 (349.5 days or
11.5 months) and 1999 (675 days or 22.2 months). For adult offenders, 
the average sentence length for homicide reached its highest point 
(3,872 days or 127 months) in 1997. Due to life sentences, the 
estimation of average sentence length for the offense of homicide is
problematic.

Explanations and future research

Explaining trends in crime

This part is limited to an examination of some of the key (potential)
explanations of the main trends in police-reported crime rates,
focusing on the 1990's. We do not attempt to explain any trends in
punishment. This is because the courts and corrections data sets
only covered a short period of time (for the most part 1994 to 1998),
and for some areas of interest (for example, number of convictions
per 1,000 offenders) we only had 1 year of data. Our discussion is
also limited to trends in crime rates from police records.

This has been done for two main reasons: first, police records were
available for all of the years of interest and there were clearly
distinguishable trends in crime rates from police records; and,
second, only a small number of victim surveys were conducted over
the period of interest.

Research on why crime went down in Canada during the 1990's is
limited.  The earliest piece that we could find on the subject
attempted to explain a downward trend in police-reported crime
rates in Edmonton, a large city in Western Canada, beginning in
1992 through 1994, the latest year for which crime figures were
available (Kennedy and Veitch 1997). The authors examined a
number of factors that could have had potentially an effect on crime
over this period of time, including the number of male youths ages
15-24 years, unemployment, social service usage, number of police
personnel, police workload (for example, calls for service) and
corresponding organizational changes to police recording of crimes,
and new community policing and problem-solving policing initiatives.

Between 1991 (the peak year of crime) and 1994, in Edmonton,
rates (per 100,000 population) of violent crime declined 26.4%
(from 1,305 to 961), while rates of property crime declined 37.4%
(from 8,934 to 5,589) (Kong 1997). The authors concluded that the
drop in overall crime rates, driven largely by lower property crime
rates, was the result of "increases in private security and new crime
prevention practices, including proactive policing which seeks to
solve problems rather than simply reply to calls for service"
(Kennedy and Veitch 1997, p. 66).

More recent research has attempted to explain the national crime
drop and over the full decade of the 1990's.  Hartnagel (2001)
looked at three main factors: prison admissions, demo-graphics,
and economy. He observed that it was very unlikely that the use of
incarceration played any role in the decline of crime in Canada in
the 1990's, because incarceration rates were going down during this
time. 

On the other hand, Hartnagel found some support for demographic
and economic explanations, due to a declining proportion of the
population aged 15-24 years and falling unem-ployment rates,
respectively. He cautioned that other economic variables also need
to be considered (for example, income inequality and part-time
work).

Ouimet (2002) also investigated the role of the economy, demographics, 
and the criminal justice system for the drop in crime rates in Canada 
from 1991 through 1999. To assess whether a tougher or more punitive 
criminal justice system may explain some of the crime drop, Ouimet 
looked at changes in the incarceration rate and the number of police 
per capita. In both instances, there was negative growth: -3% for the
incarceration rate (from 110 to 106 per 100,000 population) and -11% 
for the number of police per capita (from 2.0 to 1.8 per 1,000 
population). 

Although the numbers do not support a "get-tough-on-crime" hypothesis 
for Canada's crime drop in the 1990's, Ouimet notes that policing may 
have played a role because of "greater use of computers and databases 
and the creation of specialized units or task forces" (2002, p. 43). 
This is consistent with Kennedy and Veitch's (1997) view for why crime 
rates declined in the western city of Edmonton during the early part 
of the 1990's.

Ouimet (2002), like Hartnagel (2001), finds some support for
economic (that is, falling unemployment rates) and demographic
(that is, aging youth population) explanations for Canada's crime
drop in the 1990's. Ouimet considers these areas to be the most
promising in explaining the crime drop. Ouimet (2002, p. 45) calls
for further research into two other important trends in Canada that
may shed light on the crime drop during the 1990's: (1) an increase
in the proportion of young people going on to university or college
and (2) a decrease in public consumption of alcohol.

In our discussion that follows on some of the key (potential)
explanations for the decline in police-reported crime rates in
Canada that began in 1992 and continued through 1999, crime
rates are sometimes aggregated into the categories of "total," which
includes all violent, property, and other (such as prostitution and
arson) offenses, excluding traffic incidents, and "selected," which
includes the six offenses examined here.***Footnote 17:  In
reporting on what is known as Canada's "police-reported crime
rate," the CCJS does not include traffic violations, "as these data
have proven to be volatile over time.  This volatility is the result 
of changes in police procedures that allow for some traffic violations
to be scored under either a provincial statute or the Criminal Code
(e.g. Failure to stop or remain at an accident)" (Tremblay 1999, p.
14).***  Rates for five of the six police-reported crimes (except
motor vehicle theft) matched very closely the downward trend for
total police-reported crime rates during the 1990's.

Demographics. Two important demographic trends were evident in Canada 
during the 1990's. The first was a decline in the proportion of the 
population aged 15 to 24 years, the age group most at-risk for criminal
offending. The second important demographic trend was an increase in 
the proportion of the population aged 55 and over, an age group 
characterized by very low involvement in criminal activity. Both of 
these trends continued through 1999.

Between 1991 and 1999, the proportion of young people in the 15-24 age 
group (of the total pop.) dropped by 5.6%, from 14.3% to 13.5% 
(Statistics Canada 2000). This modest decrease in the proportion of 
this age group of the total population was characterized by year-to-
year declines for the better part of the time period, with the years 
1997 through 1999 remaining stable at 13.5%. For Canadians aged 55 and 
over, between 1991 and 1999, their proportion of the total population
increased by 6.5%, from 20.1% to 21.4% (Statistics Canada 2000).

Despite the popularity of the demographic explanation for the recent
crime drop in Canada (see Foot with Stoffman 1996, 1998), two issues 
are noteworthy. First, evidence of a decline in the proportion of the 
most crime prone age group is rather modest, particularly when 
compared with the decline in total and selected police-reported crime 
rates for the same time period: -25.2% and -26.5%, respectively. Second, 
the demographic trends for both age groups began well before the 1990's 
crime drop. The younger age group, as a proportion of the total 
population, "began to decline in 1978, [while] the crime rate was still
increasing until 1991" (Canadian Centre for Justice Statistics 1999a, 
p. 9). As noted by Tremblay (2000, p. 5), "variations in the size of the
high-risk offender age group have had some effect on the crime rate, but 
the amount of this influence is not clear, and other factors have also
influenced the crime rate trend."

Economy. As noted above, consideration of economic conditions is
important in any attempt to explain Canada's crime drop in the
1990's. We have used national unemployment rates as an indicator
of Canada's economy. As noted by Becsi (1999, p. 47), "The
unemployment rate measures reduced legitimate earnings
opportunities that are particularly important for the population
segment most at risk for engaging in criminal activities."

Between 1991 and 1999, the Canadian unemployment rate fell by
more than a quarter (-26.9%), from 10.4% to 7.6% (Sharpe 1996;
Statistics Canada 2000). The beginning of the drop in the rate of
unemployment did not, however, correspond exactly with the
beginning of the drop in crime rates (1992).  In 1992 and 1993, the
unemployment rate reached its highest points of the 1990s: 11.3%
and 11.2%, respectively. The first real drop in the unemployment
rate was from 1993 to 1994, at -7.1% (from 11.2% to 10.4%).  For
the most part, year-to-year declines characterized the fall in
unemployment rates between 1993 and 1999.

Except for a small time lag in the start of the fall in unemployment
rates, there appears to be some general congruence with the
downward trends in unemployment rates and total and selected
police-reported crime rates during the period of 1992 to 1999. As 
important as understanding the amount of influence of employment
on crime, future research should also investigate why, during 1992
to 1993, unemployment rates and crime rates were going in
opposite directions.  Seemingly, factors other than the economy
were influencing the drop in crime rates at this period of time.

Spending on policing. Government spending on police services
"measure[s] public efforts to reduce crime and raise the expected
cost to criminals" (Becsi 1999, p. 47).***Footnote 18: In this analysis
of variables that may explain the recent crime drop in the United
States, Becsi (1999) looked at both police expenditures (Per capita)
and police employment ("as a share of state population"), but found
them to be "qualitatively very similar' (p. 47).  We focus only on
police expenditures.***   Interest in the effect on crime from
spending on policing as well as other criminal justice sectors (that
is, courts and corrections) has received some scholarly attention in
recent years (see Spencer 1993; MacLean 1996; LaFree 1998;
Becsi 1999).

In Canada, policing accounts for the majority that is spent on the
criminal justice system. (Six sectors are included in the accounting
of Canada's criminal justice budget: policing, courts, legal aid,
criminal prosecutions, adult corrections, and youth corrections.) In
1996 (the most recent year that data on the full amount spent on
criminal justice was available at the time of writing), policing
accounted for 59.0% of criminal justice spending, or $5.9 of $10.0
billion (in 1996 Canadian dollars; Besserer and Tufts 1999). This
share of criminal justice expenditures has changed very little over
the last 10 years (Young 1994; Besserer and Tufts 1999).

In 1992 spending on policing in Canada peaked at $223 per person
(in 1999 Canadian dollars).***Footnote 19:  All expenditures are
reported in 1999 Canadian dollars, using the (annual average)
Consumer Price Index.*** Between 1992 and 1999, spending on
policing declined by 5.8%, from $223 to $210 per person. There
were year-to-year declines in per capita spending on police services
for 1993 through 1997, with small increases in 1998 and 1999
(year-to-year changes of 2.0% and 0.5%, respectively). From 1985
to 1992, spending on policing increased by 10.4%, from $202 to
$223 per person (Dunphy and Shankarraman 2000).

The downward trend in (inflation adjusted and per capita) police
expenditures between 1992 and 1997 compares with what was happening 
to total and selected police-reported crime rates over the same 
period.  (With only 2 years of increasing police expenditures per 
capita and declining crime rates [1998 and 1999], it is difficult 
to characterize this departure from the downward trends between
1992 and 1997.) The one notable difference between the two downward 
trends is the respective starting points for the declines: 1992 for 
total and most selected crime rates and 1993 for per capita police
expenditures.

The finding that declining spending on policing coincided with
declining crime rates seems rather illogical, but this non-effect on
crime rates has been demonstrated previously.  For an earlier
period in Canada (1950 to 1966), MacLean (1996) found that increased 
spending on policing as well as on the criminal justice system as a 
whole had no effect on crime or conviction rates, leading him to note 
that "criminal-justice efficiency is not increased by expenditures" 
(p. 145).  

In the United States, for the two periods of 1971 to 1994 and 1990
to 1994, Becsi (1999) found mostly positive relationships between
per capita spending on policing and rates of index crimes. As to why
this finding may be produced in study after study, Becsi (1999)
suggested a number of possible explanations, one of which is that,
"it might be that the regressions do not capture the exogenous
component of police efforts very well and mostly capture the
endogenous response of police activity to changes in crime. In other
words, the regression might not be controlling for simultaneity bias"
(p. 51).

Incarceration. Our analysis of custody rates for the six offenses
under study (see above) supports Ouimet's (2002) finding that
incarceration did not seem to be an important factor in the decline
of crime rates in the 1990's. Our analysis of average custodial
sentence length for the six offenses under study (see above)
provides further support against a punitive hypothesis in explaining
Canada's crime drop during this period of time. Average time
served in custody per offense provides another important measure
to investigate the punitive hypothesis. As noted above, we were not
able to obtain time served data for the present project, but our
previous analysis of average time served in custody for residential
burglary, robbery, serious assault, aggravated sexual assault, and
homicide (Welsh and Irving 2001), which relied on federal corrections 
data (Kaschube and Haydon 2000), showed that there was very little 
change in these five offenses over the period of 1994 to 1999.

Alternative crime prevention approaches. In Canada today, alternative 
or non-criminal justice approaches to preventing criminal offending 
and crime have come to be synonymous with "crime prevention through 
social development" (Standing Committee on Justice and the Solicitor 
General 1993; Sansfaon and Waller 2001), which is essentially a mix 
of developmental (see Tremblay and Craig 1995) and community (see 
Hope 1995) crime prevention approaches. Indeed, the recent history of 
crime prevention in Canada has been dominated by the notion of 
investing in children and young people to ameliorate individual- and
family-level risk factors for delinquency and later offending, as 
well as strengthening families and communities (Canadian Criminal 
Justice Association 1989; Sansfaon and Waller 2001). Recent federal
government initiatives have included the establishment in 1994 of a 
national strategy on crime prevention spearheaded by a council of
community leaders and social advocates, the set up of a permanent
structure -- the National Crime Prevention Centre -- in 1998 to
replace the council and manage crime prevention funding, policy
development, and evaluation, and, at the same time, the start of a
$32 million (Canadian) annual budget, for five years, to fund crime
prevention programs, partnerships, and research across the
country.

Despite the recent policy and programmatic attention given to crime
prevention through social development nationally, upon closer
inspection there is little reason to believe that this has had any
effect on police-reported crime rates during the latter part of the
1990's. For the most part, this is because increased spending on
crime prevention only began in 1997 and, with the focus being on
children and youth, it is expected that there would be some lag 
time before any benefits are realized. Moreover, there has been 
very little evaluation research published on the effectiveness of 
crime prevention programs in Canada. The increased spending on crime
prevention programs may have an effect on youth crime rates in the
short-term, but this may be more likely to occur in the years
following the period covered in this chapter.

Gaps in knowledge and research 
priorities

This part discusses gaps in knowledge and priorities for research.
The main aim of this part is to contribute to improving future
comparisons of crime and punishment in Canada over time.  In
discussing gaps in knowledge, we will not revisit all of the data
imperfections that have been noted throughout this chapter, but
instead we draw attention to those we consider to be the most
important.

Clearly, the most important deficiencies in Canadian statistics on
crime and punishment pertain to the latter; that is, statistics on
sentencing and corrections. Roberts (1999) summarizes some of
the most important limitations with the best available source on
sentencing statistics, the Adult Criminal Court Survey: "No
information is available regarding superior courts (or even all
provincial courts), the data lack any indication of important
sentencing related variables such as the criminal history of the
offender, or details of the crime of conviction (e.g., value of 
property stolen or damaged, extent of harm inflicted, etc.)" 
(p. 231). Again, we turn to Roberts, this time to note the 
importance of research on sentencing in Canada: "National sentencing
statistics are an indispensable element of a rational and 
comprehensive sentencing research programme ... Unless and until 
greater resources are devoted to the issue of research on sentencing, 
we shall remain behind other nations in terms of understanding this 
critical component of the criminal process" (1999, p. 231).

Concerning crime statistics, future national victimization surveys
should be conducted on a more frequent basis. In the three
national surveys that have been carried out, the most recent being
for 1998, there has been a 5- and a 6-year gap between the
surveys. Large time periods between surveys may miss important
parts of or entire trends. Large samples are also needed for future
surveys. The most recent survey used the largest sample to date,
26,000 persons. This meant that each respondent represented
about 1,000 people in the Canadian population. This was a
significant improvement over the two previous surveys and future
surveys should replicate this scale-up factor. 

We of course do not take issue with changes that were made to
definitions of crimes or survey questions for some of the crimes 
of interest to this chapter (that is, sexual assault and assault), 
as these changes were no doubt made to improve the information elicited. 
Importantly, the practice of reporting separately the findings from
the new and old questions, as was done in the 1998 survey, should
be continued in future surveys. This allows for like-with-like crime
comparisons over time as well as the ability to advance knowledge
in specialized areas of victimization.

Lastly, a program of research should be initiated to test
explanations for the crime drop in Canada during the 1990's. We
examined some of the key (potential) explanations (demography,
economy, spending on policing, incarceration, and alternative crime
prevention approaches) for the decline in police-reported crime
rates during this time period. Future research should expand the
number of explanatory variables, examine how these variables hold
up in different regions of the country, especially because of regional
variation in crime rates across the country, and assess how key
explanations compare between Canada and the United States (see
Ouimet, 2002), in light of the United States experiencing similar
trends in national crime rates during the 1990's (Blumstein and
Wallman, 2000).

When sentencing and corrections statistics become available for a
longer time frame, research should be conducted to test
explanations for any trends in national rates of convictions and
custody, as well as the probability of custody upon conviction and
the average duration of custodial sentences and time served for the
six offenses we have covered here.

As many criminologists before us have noted (for example, Doob
1999; Roberts 1999), greater investment in basic research in many
areas of crime and punishment in Canada is needed.  Such an
investment along the lines of research we have noted here should
offer to improve future comparisons of crime and punishment in
Canada, and may go some way towards bringing about more informed 
and responsive public policy, whether it be in addressing
sentencing disparity, reducing the use of prisons, or implementing
early intervention programs for at-risk children and families.

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Authors

Brandon C. Welsh, Ph.D. is an assistant professor in the Department 
of Criminal Justice, University of Massachusetts Lowell. Mark H. 
Irving is a senior research evaluation analyst with the National 
Crime Prevention Centre, Department of Public Safety and Emergency
Preparedness Canada. The views expressed are those of the authors 
and do not represent those of the Department of Public Safety and 
Emergency Preparedness Canada.

The authors thank Julian Roberts for helpful comments on an earlier 
version of this chapter. They are also very grateful to Robert Allen, 
Patricia Bgin, Paul De Souza, Orest Fedorowycz, Craig Grimes, Mike 
Hayden, Holly Johnson, Karen Kaschube, Jean-Robert Larocque, Denise 
Mnard, Steven Mihorean, Chi Nguyen, Alex Smale, and Cathy Trainor 
for assistance in the collection of data. 

Netherlands

Aims

This chapter will describe and tentatively explain trends in crime and
justice in the Netherlands from 1980-99. We study six offenses:
residential burglary, motor vehicle theft, robbery, serious assault,
rape, and homicide. Of all crimes committed, only a fraction are
reported and recorded by the police. Not all offenders are brought
before the courts and convicted. A number of convicted offenders
are incarcerated for varying lengths of imprisonment. 

For each of the offenses mentioned, we investigate, following
Farrington and Joliffe (2002), eight key questions:

1.  Is the serious crime rate per capita increasing or decreasing? 
2. Is the conviction rate per capita increasing or decreasing? 
3. Is the probability of an offender getting convicted increasing or
decreasing? 
4. Is the probability of a convicted offender being sent to custody
increasing or decreasing? 
5. Is the average sentence length increasing or decreasing?
  
Farrington and Joliffe's (2002) question whether the average time
spent is increasing or decreasing, is not relevant for the
Netherlands, as time spent, apart from incidental cases of serious
misdemeanor, is always a fixed fraction of imposed sentence length
and thus basically stable.

The crime rate can be measured from victimization survey data or
from crimes recorded by the police. Victim survey data are generally
considered to be more accurate as police recorded crime levels
may be affected by additional factors such as size of the police
force and administrative improvements. The probability that a victim
reports the crime and the probability that the police record the crime
link police figures and victim survey rates. These latter two
probabilities are included in our study as further questions:
6. Is the probability of a victim reporting a crime to the police increasing
or decreasing? 
7. Is the probability of the police recording a reported crime increasing 
or decreasing?
  
Given that we know all these data -- that is, the number of offenses,
probabilities of reporting and recording, conviction rate, custody
probability and average sentence length and proportion of time
actually served -- it is possible to calculate, per offender, the
average time spent in custody. With this average figure, it is
possible to answer the ultimate question of this chapter:

8. Is the average time served per offender increasing or decreasing?

This measure reflects the combined effects of the probability of
getting apprehended, the probability of being led before a court, of
being convicted, of being convicted to a custodial sentence, and of
the length of that sentence and the proportion served.
 
The Netherlands

Description  

The Netherlands is a small, flat country situated in the west of
continental Europe. The Netherlands is a constitutional monarchy,
although the monarch plays, apart from a small number of
constitutional functions, mainly a ceremonial role. The Netherlands
is also a parliamentary democracy, the lower house (Tweede Kamer) 
has 150 seats, and the upper house (Eerste Kamer) has 75. The lower 
house plays a central role; the upper house's role is smaller and in 
second instance. Since 1994, a mixed coalition of labor (PvdA), 
conservatives (VVD), and democrats (D'66) have governed the country. 

The population of the Netherlands was 15.8 million in 1999.
Population density is high and increased from 416 in 1980 to 465
inhabitants per square kilometer in 1999. 

The Netherlands saw a large influx of labor migrants from mainly
Turkey and Morocco in the 1960's. While their stay was intended to
be temporary, most have settled with their families, and their
descendants now make up a growing part of the population. 

Migrants from the Dutch colony Surinam (Dutch Guyana) came to
the Netherlands around 1975, when Surinam became independent
and its inhabitants had the choice to remain in Surinam or settle 
in the Netherlands. The Netherlands Antilles still are part of the
kingdom of the Netherlands, and while travel is not unrestricted,
many Antilleans have also settled, more or less permanently, in the
Netherlands.

Asylum seekers from various countries (most prominently Iraq, Iran,
Afghanistan, and Somalia) have added to the nonindigenous
population in recent years. 

Residents are counted as nonethnic Dutch when either they or their
father or mother were born outside the Netherlands or hold a
foreign nationality. By 1999, 2.8 million (17%) of the Dutch
population was of nonethnic Dutch background, many of them living
in the big towns. (For instance, 45% of the population of Amsterdam
and 41% of the population of Rotterdam were of nonethnic Dutch
descent in 2002.) Of these 2.8 million, 1.8 million (11% of the total
population) had a non-Western background. 

The population is aging fast: the mean age in 1999 being 38.0 years, 
having risen from 34.4 in 1980. Life expectancy in 1999 is 75.3 years 
for males and 80.5 for females. About 1 in 3 marriages end in divorce; 
in 15% of marriages, at least one partner has been married before. 
Since 2001, it has been possible for partners of the same sex to be 
officially married.

Since the beginning of the 1990's, cohabiting partners are given
virtually the same legal and the same fiscal status as officially
married couples. 

About 1 in 4 children are born out of wedlock, and about 1 in 6
children live in single-parent households. All children in between
ages 5 and 15 receive full-time education. About 22% of the
population (between ages 15 and 64) has a higher education, and
this percentage has increased in recent years. 

Unemployment figures were historically low in the 1990's; while
figures rose from 4.3% in 1980 to 11.7% in 1983, they declined
afterwards, and the unemployment rate was 3.1% in 1999.

Gross Domestic Product equaled 23,805 guilders per inhabitant in
1999, having risen from 10,960 guilders in 1980. Inflation, while low
(from 6.9% in 1980 to 2.1 % in 1999) for a considerable time, increased
somewhat lately.

In the Netherlands, 71% of households have one or more cars. A lot
of people use bicycles (or mopeds) for transportation as the country
is flat, towns are congested, and distances are small; there were
13.6 million bicycles and mopeds in 1999. 

The Netherlands is historically perceived as a tolerant and at some
points permissive society. Sentencing at least until the mid-1980's
was comparatively mild.

The Criminal Justice System  

In the Netherlands, offenders who are caught are first processed
through the police system. After the police have become convinced
that the suspect has indeed committed a crime, the suspect's case
is transferred to the public prosecutor's office. In a few cases,
especially for juveniles who have committed minor offenses, the
police may send home the suspect with a warning and no prosecution 
ensues. This is believed to occur in only a very small proportion 
of cases. The public prosecutor next decides whether to dismiss the 
case or whether to prosecute (the so-called expediency principle). 
If the prosecutor decides to prosecute, he or she may either bring 
the case to court or deal with the case him or herself (a so-called
"transactie"). 

When the case is brought to court, the offender convicted and a
punishment meted out, this punishment can assume various forms:
it can vary from a fine to community service to a treatment kind of
sanction "leerstraf" to incarceration. All these can be imposed
conditionally as well as unconditionally. 

A special kind of conviction is the "terbeschikkingstelling" or tbs,
which is essentially an entrustment order. Secure (psychiatric)
hospital orders are rare. An entrustment order can be imposed for
crimes carrying a maximum statutory penalty of at least 4 years of
imprisonment and if hospital care is necessary to protect the safety
of other people, the general public or property. The order lasts for 
2 years but may be extended by 1 or 2 years. Further extensions are
possible (Tak, 1999). 

In practice, the average time spent in such an entrustment order is
approximately 5 years (Leuw, 1999, p. 28). The length of average
stay has increased over the past years, although figures are
available only for those who have been released. A proportion of
those upon whom treatment is imposed may end up spending the
rest of their lives in confinement as their treatment does not
produce the desired effect and their chances of recidivism remain
high (Leuw, 1999). They are often given in combination with a
prison sentence. 

At each stage of the criminal justice system, cases branch off. A
select proportion of offenders end up incarcerated: the prosecutor
need not prosecute, the prosecutor can offer the defendant a
transaction, the prosecutor may take the case to court, where the
defendant may be pronounced not guilty or otherwise unpunishable,
may see a fine, a community service order or a prison sentence
imposed. 

Transactions and other kinds of extrajudicial sentencing have
witnessed enormous growth in recent years: the prosecutor
increasingly sentences perpetrators for less serious offenses
(maximum unconditional sentence length 6 years). This can only be
done when the perpetrator agrees, and when contraindications
(such as recidivism or drug-addiction) are absent. This trend may
have affected registered levels and lengths of custodial sentencing
for motor vehicle theft, assault, and some of the very light cases of
burglary. Such transactions are not counted as convictions in the
official statistics, but are counted in this article for reasons of
comparability. 

In addition, the Netherlands has witnessed an increase in sentences in 
the form of community service instead of custody. In the mid-1990's 
sentencing guidelines were formulated making community service the 
preferred sanction, unless contraindications made it impossible 
("Taakstraf, tenzij"). During recent times, such community service 
orders could also be combined with fines or custodial sentences. This
phenomenon may therefore have affected registered levels and lengths 
of custodial sentencing. 

On average, about two-thirds of all court cases deal with one offense 
only. This figure is an average, and especially for the less serious 
offenses case files more often contain more than one type of offense. 
For instance, a case may have a leading offense such as burglary, but 
may also contain several other burglaries, property offenses such as 
motor vehicle theft, and shoplifting. The less grave offenses then 
do not appear in criminal and court statistics: they remain hidden 
under the label of the graver offense. This may result in a fairly 
gross overestimation and underestimation of crime levels.  For 
instance, it has been estimated that, depending on the particular 
definitions chosen, violent offenses are underestimated by 20 to 30% 
(Cozijn and others, 2001).  

To complicate matters further, such non-leading offenses can be
included in the case file in two ways: either as an offense that 
is taken into account in the verdict ("voeging ter terechtzitting"), 
or as an offense that is simply included to clean the slate of the 
defendant ("voeging ad informandum"). The defendant can then no 
longer be prosecuted for this offense. 

Although at first sight it could appear odd, this practice is
understandable if one realizes that the Netherlands has a system 
of non-accumulating sentence lengths. Sentence length does not
relate linearly to the number of offenses dealt with: after a 
certain number of offenses, addition of further confessed cases 
does not have an effect on sentence severity and cases are simply 
added to the case file and dealt with as a matter of efficiency.  

In the Netherlands, offenders are punishable under the criminal code 
from 12 years of age, although prison sentences are in practice hardly 
ever imposed on youth under 14. Determinate custodial sentences vary 
between 1 day and 20 years. Life sentences are hardly ever imposed. 
Sentence length depends, apart from the severity of the offense tried, 
also on the particularities of the case at hand. Among these, the 
foremost are deemed to be the circumstances under which the crime was
committed and the personal circumstances of the offender, notably 
recidivism. 

Lastly, it should be noted that the Netherlands has a system of routine 
early release; prisoners are entitled to this and can only lose this 
right if they grossly misbehave. The point of early release varies
according to sentence length (for long sentences at 67%,for short
sentences according to a more complicated formula, and generally
at a relatively later point; for details see below). 

Method

In the Netherlands, as in many countries, no integrative system
exists in which an offender can be tracked through the criminal
justice system from the point where he or she actually commits 
the offense up to the point where he is released from prison. This
means that estimates of processing through the justice system are
always based on aggregate information. 

The present research  

The study presented in this chapter was conducted with several
other studies that attempted to gather the same, and therefore
comparable, information for a number of countries where two or
more waves of a general victim survey have been conducted in the
period 1980-1999. 

As stated at the outset, the aim is to link national victimization 
data to police figures, to prosecution and conviction statistics, and
ultimately to custody data, and thus capture the flow of offenders
through the criminal justice system. The first study of this kind
appeared in 1992 (Farrington and Langan,1992) and presented data for 
England and the United States. The present issue attempts to present 
a much more in-depth and extensive study, for several countries 
according to the same format and methodology. For information on 
intermittent publications, see the chapter by Farrington and Joliffe 
in this issue (Farrington and Joliffe, 2002). 

Apart from national relevance of the current publication, the format
for the data presented in the publications in this issue is dictated 
by the requirement of comparability: by ensuring that as similar as
possible data are collected (for instance, not simply compare penal
code entries, but actually compare as similar as possible material
acts), it is possible to compare the flow of offenders through the
criminal justice system across countries.

The Netherlands has a long tradition of victim surveys. The first
nationwide survey of its kind took place in 1973, and was carried 
out by the WODC Research and Documentation Center of the Ministry
of Justice (Van Dijk and Steinmetz, 1979). This survey was
transferred to Statistics Netherlands in 1980, that have been
carrying out the survey since. The sample is approximately 10,000
(Statistics Netherlands, 1997). 

Since 1993, victimization surveys have been carried out by the police 
as well (the "Police Monitor"), with much larger samples but a
different method of questioning (PMB, 1999). Statistics Netherlands
publishes yearly national figures for police recorded offenses, police
arrests, and information about conviction and sentencing (Schreuders, 
and others, 2001). The Netherlands does not have centralized 
information on sentences after the first instance of the criminal 
justice system.

Comparability   

When comparing the yearly victimization and criminal justice data,
two main comparability issues can be identified. 

First, data are presented over the years, but definitions may
change. This encompasses both legal definitions and "conceptual"
definitions that respondents use to define the acts that victimized
them. The same distinction applies to the registration methods of
the police: for instance, there are indications for the Netherlands
that police have increasingly labeled purse snatching as a violent
offense, while in past years it would most often have been labeled
as a property offense. At present we have no way of testing for the
latter comparability issue, and apart from noting it, we will leave 
it as it is. The first issue can be investigated easily.  

Second, victimization and criminal justice data are hard to link. The
victim survey questionnaires need not always use the same definitions 
that the police and subsequent criminal justice authorities do. As 
stated above, there is no "offender-based" tracking system whereby we 
can see offenses being processed through the various instances dealing 
with offenders and offenses. 

In one court case, several offenses may be dealt with but are
registered under the heading of the "leading" offense, that is usually
(but not always) the gravest one. The non-leading offenses are not
sentenced separately, sentences do not add up, and these offenses
do not appear in the statistics, and in a sense "evaporate"
statistically. In this manner, it may thus seem as if fewer offenses
are actually dealt with than is the case in reality: offenses are 
dealt with but are simply, because of this system, not counted. 

For in-depth study of the criminal justice system, it is therefore
necessary to conduct tailored studies of special offenses. Such
generalizable in-depth information can be gathered from additional
sources such as the Ministry of Justice's Prosecution and Sentencing 
Monitor. This monitor (that has had two waves so far)analyses a 
stratified sample of first instance criminal court cases, registering
information on the defendant, the offenses, victims as well as various
situational, qualitative aspects of the offenses. Sentencing 
information is included (Wartna and others, 1998). 

Burglary ("inbraak")is recorded under article 311 of the Penal Code
in the Netherlands ("qualified theft"). There is no separate article 
for burglary; article 311 is used for all cases in which an item is 
stolen through breaking and entering, plus several other qualified 
cases of theft (such as stealing cattle from a meadow or theft carried 
out with a group of offenders). Burglary is estimated to occur in a 
fifth of all entries for article 311. In principle the scope of this 
article is thus wider than what is popularly known as "inbraak." This
therefore causes discrepancies of victim surveys with police records 
based on this article. Burglary has been an item in the Victim Survey 
and Police Monitor since 1980 and 1993, respectively. 

Motor vehicle theft ("diefstal motor-vertuigen") encompasses the
stealing of motorized vehicles. There is no special article in the
Dutch Penal Code for this item. In a legal sense, motor vehicle theft
should be registered under the main article for theft, article 310,
under which all kinds of stealing are registered, including shoplifting
and the like. In practice, motor vehicle theft is also registered under
article 311 (qualified theft), as well under less likely articles such as
embezzlement (article 321), joyriding (article 11 Road Law) or even
fencing (article 416). No statistics are available on this differential
registering.

Car theft is registered by Statistics Netherlands as per the number
of inhabitants over age 15. In the Police Monitor it is registered as
per the number of vehicles. Different bases make these statistics
difficult to compare. Car theft has been an item in the Victim Survey
since 1980 and in the Police Monitor since 1993. 

Assault can be found in the articles 300 to 306 of the Dutch Penal
Code. Some of these articles deal with intentionally light kinds of
assault and have subtitles for ensuing grave consequences; other
articles deal with intentionally serious assault. Statistics 
Netherlands does not separate serious assault. Serious assault has 
been an item both in the Victim Survey since 1992 and in the Police 
Monitor since 1993. The Victim Survey employs a much wider definition.
The ICVS is not an alternative source here as it combines serious
assault with "threats." We may expect some discrepancies here
between victimization and criminal justice data. The Netherlands
does not have an objectified system of rating the seriousness of
assault offenses. 

Robbery is found in articles 312 and 317 of the Dutch Penal Code.
Neither the Victim Survey nor the Police Monitor contains items
asking after this crime. The only available source is the 
International Crime Victimization Survey. 

Rape is in article 242 of the penal code. In the Netherlands, rape 
is defined as "forcing another through (threats with) violence or
(threats with other facts) to undergo acts that (partly) consist of
sexual penetration of the body." Since 1990 rape has not been, as
previously, legally excluded by marriage. Also since 1990 for an act
to be labeled as rape, it need not entail sexual intercourse; in 1998
a rape conviction by the Appeals Chamber for a kiss that entailed
forcing the offender's tongue into a the victim's mouth was 
reaffirmed in highest instance(Hoge Raad). 

We have no data that can distinguish between rape of females and
rape of males. This makes for incomparability with the other studies
in this volume. However, in practice, rape victims are mostly female
and the perpetrator mostly male, although this is definitely not
exclusively so. It can be assumed that most male victims are under
age, and for these the penal code has a special article, so that the
incomparability is not too big. 

Rape is the only offense for which the legal definition changed during 
our study period. Rape is not an item in the Victim Survey or in the 
Police Monitor or in the ICVS, so that we have no victimization 
estimates. 

The Netherlands does not have one word for homicide as in the English
language. "Moord" (murder) and "doodslag" (nonnegligent manslaughter) 
are dealt with in articles 287-291. The separate article for 
"kindermoord" entails the (premeditated) killing by a mother of her own 
child shortly after birth under fear of discovery of her delivery 
(articles 290, 291). 

Euthanasia and abortion are only considered punishable offenses in
the Netherlands when pre-specified conditions under which they are
carried out are not met. A euthanasia law was passed in 2002, that
codified existing practice. 

Survey offenses 

Three victim surveys are conducted with some regularity in the
Netherlands. The "Slachtofferenquete" (Victim Survey) is conducted
and published by Statistics Netherlands. This victim survey was
conducted yearly from 1973 to 1979 by the WODC Research and
Documentation Centre of the Ministry of Justice. From 1981 to 1985
the survey was conducted yearly by Statistics Netherlands in
collaboration with the WODC. In 1983 the sampling frame was
changed. From 1985 onwards, the survey was conducted every odd
year by Statistics Netherlands through the "Enquete Slachtoffers
Misdrijven" (Survey Victims of Crime). 

In 1992 the "Enquete Rechtsbescherming en Veiligheid" or ERV
(Survey of Legal Protection and Safety) replaced the victim survey.
With little change, this became part of a wider survey called "POLS"
in 1997. 

The years 1981, 1983, 1992, and 1997 therefore constitute points at
which some irregularities may be expected due to changes in research 
design, questionnaire, frequency, and periodicity in data collection. 
Since 1980 samples are drawn from the Dutch population age 15 or 
older, based on the council administrations ("Gemeentelijke Basis
Administratie"). Information is collected in face-to-face interviews. 
The number of respondents is approximately 10,000 each wave for the
victimization questions.  The data are reweighted to match age, 
gender, marital status, employment status, interviewing month, 
urbanization and housing conditions. 

The Victim Survey does not contain information on all crimes in
which we are interested. In addition to homicide and rape, robbery
was not a separate item in this survey. Information on assault is
present from 1992 onwards. Information on the other crimes is
present for all years the survey was conducted.

The "Politiemonitor Bevolking" (Police Monitor) is coordinated by 
the WODC Research and Documentation Center of the Ministry of
Justice. It is con- ducted biennially by the Dutch Ministries of
Internal Affairs and Justice. Four waves have been completed so
far: 1993, 1995, 1997, and 1999. Samples are drawn from the
Dutch population age 15 or older. The sampling frame, data
collection method, and reweighting procedures differ from those of
the Statistics Netherlands victim surveys mentioned above. 

The sampling frame in the Police Monitor is based on a telephone
registration by KPN, the former state-owned telephone company.
Interviewing is by telephone. The total sample size is around
75,000. Respondents who are unlisted or with only a mobile phone
do not appear in the sample. It is generally assumed that non-ethnic
Dutch respondents are underrepresented, or more precisely, are
more underrepresented than in the other victim surveys. This
makes the results partly incomparable to those of the victim
surveys. The data are reweighted to match age, gender, and
regional distribution. Response levels of contacted respondents
have varied between 72% and 66%, making for a total response
rate of less than 50%. Questions refer to events within a year of 
the interview. The findings over the years of the Politiemonitor 
can be compared without reserve, as there are no or only very minor 
changes between the waves. 

The International Crime Victimization Survey (ICVS) is conducted
by several conglomerates of researchers from various countries,
and coordinated by the (former) Department of Criminology at
Leiden University, the Netherlands, the British Home Office, and 
the United Nations Interregional Criminal Justice Research 
Institute (UNICRI). The ICVS is generally considered to be most 
comparable to the Police Monitor. 

For the ICVS, random digit dialing is employed, which makes for
more representative coverage. Reweighting procedures resemble
those of the Police Monitor. Response levels have varied between
58% and 65% for 1988, 1991, 1995, and 1999 (each published a
year later). The sample size was approximately 2,000 every wave.    
      
A recent study compared differences in victimization levels, among
other factors, between the various surveys and concluded that
differences were in all likelihood due to differences in sampling
frame, the ordering of questions, the framing of questions as well 
as definitions employed. Some differences were however very hard to
explain, according to the researchers (Schoen, Defize, and Bakker,
2000). For victimization estimates, we used total population size 
for 1980-99, as taken from the Bevolkingsstatistiek, a regular
publication by Statistics Netherlands, containing demographic
information and disaggregated population statistics. 

The population base for offending, conviction, and incarceration
statistics was the population over 11 years of age. For the victim
surveys, the population age 15 or older constituted the population
base. All data are reported in appendix tables 1-6. For instance, 
for 1990, the number of robberies as estimated from the victim 
survey was 137,977; the population age 15 or older was 12,178 x 
1,000. This makes for a victimization rate of 11.3 or 11.3 robberies 
per 1,000 population at risk, or approximately 1 in 88 persons were
robbed that year. For burglary in 1990, the comparable figure is
25.0 per 1,000 population at risk, meaning that 1 in 40 were burgled. 

For assault, we employed the series as generated by the Politiemonitor
Bevolking (PMB). The reason for this is that for assault the definition 
in the Statistics Netherlands Victim Survey was changed a few times, 
with a major change in 1993, the year in which the PMB started. 
Before that year, the victim survey asked after "handtastelijkheden," 
which should be translated as either pawing or over-intimate unwanted
touching, or as violent interactions, such as in fights. 

The PMB always asked about assault. However, for 1980-92 we also used 
the Statistics Netherlands figures and synchronized the 1992 figure 
to the PMB 1993 survey figure. When computing correlations for assault, 
we only took the period 1988 to 1999, when the data were reasonably 
stable.

All survey estimates have confidence intervals around them; the more 
frequent the offense reported, the narrower the confidence interval
(Statistics Netherlands, 1999). The percentages of reported offenses 
were all taken from the ICVS victim survey. We have no data for rape.      

The number of offenders per offense is not registered for each
offense on a yearly basis in the Netherlands. We drew estimates
from several studies that were based mainly on police data. The
average numbers of offenders per offense are set at 1.57 for
burglary (for which only 1998 and 1999 were available and were
thus averaged and kept constant over the years), 1.14 for motor
vehicle theft (also restricted to 1998 and 1999). For robbery the
average number of offenders per offense varied from 1.34 in 1985
to 1.19 in 1989, and moved up to a high of 1.92 in 1997. For
assault, the figure went down from 1.14 in 1985 to 1.04 in 1989/1990 
and up to 1.32 since 1998. For rape, figures varied quite a bit 
between 1.14 in 1984 to 0.87 in 1991 and back to 1.2 in 1999. For 
homicide the figure is 1.3 throughout the years, based on the 1998 
study by Smit and others. It should be noted that the figure for
rape is based on all sexual offenses.

Police-recorded offenses  

The number of police-recorded offenses was taken from the "Politie-
statistiek" (Police Statistics), that is aggregated and published 
by Statistics Netherlands. The figures are based on police records, 
collected by the regional police departments in the Netherlands. 
In the Netherlands, offenses are classified at first report. 

Police recording procedures have remained unaltered over the
investigation period. The processing procedures have undergone
numerous alterations over the years that also differed over the
various regions in the Netherlands. The Dutch police were
reorganized in 1992, which may have caused some turbulence in
the data. As part of this reorganization, the specialized units 
dealing with youth and sex crimes were also dissolved.      

The number of burglaries recorded by the police in 1999 amounted
to 17,500; the number of recorded assaults 42,300. Using population 
data, the police recorded crime rate for burglary amounts to 5.93 
in 1999 (17,500 over a population of 15,760 x 1000), that for
assault equals 2.68 in 1999 (42,300 over 15,760 x 1000).      

Incidence data for motor vehicle theft were registered by two
separate institutions over our investigation period: until 1994, the
police registered these offenses, since 1995, the Stichting Aanpak
Voertuigcriminaliteit (SAVc: Foundation for Countering Vehicle
Crime) keeps a centralized registration. It is odd, and inexplicable
that at the point where the police responsibility for the registration
was transferred to the SAVc, the data differed widely. We did not
manage to correct the two curves in such a manner that the
resulting curve was uninterrupted, but did apply a 10% correction on
the police data (the argument for this is that the police counted
company vehicles, and the SAVc did not, which would account for
approximately a 10% difference). 

There may be some differences between police recorded offenses
and offenses as reported in the victim survey, as the police also
register offenses against persons under 15 years of age. For
robbery, we applied a correction factor of 3%, based on the only
available study that had information on this (De Poot, 2002), thus
assuming that 3% of victims would be under 15. 

For assault, we corrected according to the fraction of the population
under the age of 15. The victim survey estimate of 192,600 robberies 
includes then 17,325 comparable robberies recorded by the police. For 
assault, 34,463 cases were comparable to the 141,240 victim survey 
estimate. For burglary and motor vehicle theft we applied no 
corrections. Persons under 16 are not supposed to drive a moped. 
Burglaries will in most cases be reported by non-minors. 

Dividing the number of comparable police-recorded offenses by the
number of survey offenses yields the probability of a survey offense
being recorded by the police. For assault in 1999, this was then .24
(34,463/ 141,240); for robbery it was .09 (17,325/192,600). This
figure can be disaggregated, as the recording process consists of
two steps: first the offense must be reported to the police, and 
if it is reported, then it must still be recorded to appear in the 
police statistics. For instance, given that the probability of a 
robbery being reported to the police was .09 in 1999, the 
probability of the reported robbery being recorded amounts to .14
(17,325/121,338). For assault these figures are .24 and .58 for 
1999.

Convictions     

Convictions in the Netherlands can be a verdict by the judge
entailing that the defendant is guilty and that no sentencing
exclusion grounds apply, or a transaction offered by the prosecutor
that is accepted by the defendant. Especially for violent and sexual
crimes, entrustment orders can be given (van Emmerik, 1989,1999); 
the number of such entrustment orders has risen sharply over our 
investigation period, from fewer than 100 in 1980 to almost 200 per 
year in 1999. 

The minimum age at which a juvenile can be prosecuted and convicted 
is 12 years of age. From 18 years of age, the system for adults thus 
applies. No major changes have taken place since 1980 that could have 
affected conviction levels or rates. It is unknown to what extent the
population of illegal migrants in the Netherlands grew in this period; 
also, no statistics are available on (changes in)the representation of
nonresident foreign nationals in the offender population.      

A sentence is given not per offense but on the basis of the entire
court case. While approximately two-thirds of all prosecuted cases
in the Netherlands entail only one offense, especially for crimes 
like burglary, motor vehicle theft, and robbery, this fraction will 
be much lower. In case of several offenses, incarceration sentence 
length does not accumulate. 

The custodial sentence is maximized in the sense that the accumulated 
sentence lengths may not exceed a third in excess of the highest 
sentence for any of the offenses tried. In practice this means that
prosecutors often do not include all offenses in the court file, as 
no additional sentence length "gain" can be expected. Thus, one may 
encounter court files where the offender has committed and confessed 
to 20 burglaries, but where only 3 have been added to the case file 
and the remainder have been added "ad informandum." Only the three 
burglaries enter into the statistics.      

The study of offending, conviction, and sentencing processes from
criminal justice information and statistics is a hazardous affair in 
the Netherlands. The criminal justice system is highly intricate and
criminal justice statistics a gross simplification of reality. In the
Netherlands, court cases appear in the statistics under the article
number of the leading article, which is often (but not always)the
article with the heaviest sentence attached to it. 

A small study focusing on burglary and motor vehicle theft was
conducted of the manner in which sentencing and prosecution
information is stored in the Netherlands, as well as of the manner 
in which convictions tie in with particular crimes. The data for 
this study were taken from the SRM Prosecution and Sentencing Monitor 
(Wartna and others,1998). 

It appeared that burglary, which should be qualified as article 311 of
the penal code, appears under that article in the statistics in 79% of
cases. Thus, 21% of burglaries are "hidden" in the statistics under
another article: 6% under the article for theft(310),the remaining
15% under various other articles (such as robbery). 

When judging the figures for motor vehicle theft, one should realize
that the Dutch penal code has no separate article for motor vehicle
theft. The small study showed that only 14% of motor vehicle thefts
appear as theft - the article conceptually most appropriate; 61%
appear as qualified theft which is perhaps not illogical as many cars
are stolen after breaking into the vehicle; the remaining 26% appear
under various other articles of the penal code.      

Using this study, and under the assumption that the distribution over
the articles 310 and 311 did not change significantly over the period
under investigation, we computed the number of convictions for
burglary and motor vehicle theft as weighted sums. For burglary we
took 1.2% of all article 310 settlements plus 15.5% of all article 311
settlements, took 79.1% of this to correct for acquittals and then
added another 14.7% for other articles under which burglary could
have been dealt with. For motor vehicle theft we took 3.9% of all
article 310 settlements plus 16.3% of all article 311 settlements,
took 84.8% of this to correct for acquittals and then added another
25.5% for other articles under which motor vehicle theft could have
been dealt with. 

All these percentages were derived from the small study described
above. The conviction rates for the six offenses are presented
graphically. The conviction rate for burglary was just under .3
(3,687/13,400) per 1,000 population age 12 or older in 1999. The
conviction rate for motor vehicle theft is an estimate from the
number of convictions for article 311 (qualified theft), based on
estimates obtained from the SRM. It resembles that of burglary but
for a level difference as both were calculated mainly from the same
series. For 1999, it amounted to .39 (5,274/13,400) per 100
population age 12 or older. 

For robbery the conviction rate was .27 (3,670/13,400). Since there
were an estimated 192,600 robberies in 1999 and an estimated a
rounded 1.68 offenders per robbery, there were an estimated
323,717 offenders (not necessarily different persons) who could
have been convicted. Since the number of comparable police-recorded 
robberies comprised 97% of all police recorded robberies, it can be 
estimated that for the Netherlands, 333,729 (323,717/.97) offenders 
are at risk for conviction for robbery. Dividing this number by the 
number of convicted robbers, yields the estimate that there were 91 
offenders per conviction, the probability of conviction per robber 
amounts to .011 for 1999 (3,670/333,729). This can be reformulated 
by saying that every offender commits 91 robberies for every 1 court
conviction. This neglects multiple robberies dealt with in one 
conviction. The calculations for rape and homicide were based on 
police data only.

Probability of custody  

Information on sentences was obtained from "Omdata" ("Prosecution data"),
which is an extraction of the operational database containing information 
on all prosecuted cases and sentences by the lower courts in the 
Netherlands. It is serviced by the Central Prosecution Department(Parket
Generaal). 

It should be stressed here that sentencing databases contain
information on sentences in first instance only; there is no
centralized registration of sentences passed in appeal. As
described above, less serious crimes are increasingly sentenced
through community service orders. 

In addition, under specific conditions, and increasingly more often,
the prosecutor may deal with the case him or herself. For the crimes 
under scrutiny here, we may see a increase of such prosecutor's 
sentences at the expense of judges' verdicts. Given the maximum 
sentence lengths, this may occur for assault, not so serious kinds 
of burglary, and motor vehicle theft. This constitutes a source of
incomparability with other nations. In addition, during the past 10 
years, community service orders have become increasingly popular for 
juveniles and first offenders, and have in fact become a regular type 
of sentence, that can be given together with other types of sentence. 
It is to be doubted whether this popularity has been at the expense 
of unconditional custodial sentences, as especially for juveniles 
community service orders have replaced mainly fines. 

As stated above, life sentences are extremely rare in the Netherlands. 
Secure hospital orders were included in our calculations; while not 
officially a sanction, they are a measure that does impose custody on 
an offender. No centralized data is available on the number of such 
orders. 

We obtained publications on secure hospital orders (van Emmerik,
1989, 1999); that is, we obtained estimates of the percentage of the
total of such orders that was given for robbery, assault, homicide,
and rape, and we obtained an estimate of the average duration of
these secure hospital orders. These publications also gave us the
yearly number of entrustment orders. Using these data, we added
to the sentence information for, for instance rape, the number of
entrustment orders (fixed percentage for all years times the number
of such orders in each year) given for rape. The percentages were
for robbery 7%, for assault 10.6%  for rape 9.4% and for homicide
25.9%. 

In addition we know that a very small fraction of offenders do not
receive a custodial sentence at all, as they are judged to be entirely
unaccountable for their offense, but instead receive an entrustment
order only. For homicide, on the basis of the 1998 study by Smit
and others (2001) we added fixed yearly percentage of secure
hospital orders of 2% entrustment orders to all homicides. For
example, in 1999, 180 entrustment orders were given, of these we
estimate that 25.9% were for homicide, so we add .259 times 180
times 60 months, add a further 2% and add this to the total volume
of custodial sentences for homicide. 

We assume that for the other offenses, secure hospital orders are
virtually always given in combination with a custodial sentence. For
instance, in 1999 2,295 offenders were sentenced to a custodial
sentence for robbery, or 63% of all offenders convicted for robbery.
The incarceration rate (the number of incarcerated offenders per
1,000 persons age 12 or older) for robbery was 0.17 (2,295/13,400).
The probability of an offender being sent to custody can be
calculated as the product of the probability of an offender being
convicted times the probability of a convicted offender being
sentenced to a custodial sentence. For the Netherlands in 1999,
this amounts to .0112 times .63, amounting to .007, corresponding
to one in every 142 robbers receiving a custodial sentence. Again,
this is disregarding the fact that most robbers commit several
robberies, and the chances of being convicted to a custodial
sentence will in all likelihood be much higher.

Sentence length and time served  

In the Netherlands, early release is an entitlement. This means that
the time actually served is but, for incidents, a fixed fraction of
sentenced length. When unconditional sentence length is not more
than 1 year, the convict is released when 6 months plus a third of
the remaining sentence has been spent. When the unconditional
sentence length is in excess of 1 year, the convict is released 
when two-thirds of the sentence has been served. 

We have employed this formula, interpolating for average sentences 
between 6 months and 6 years. We have employed this fraction for 
reasons of comparability with other nations. However, we will not 
discuss the development of actual time served, as the development 
is identical to the developments in sentencing for that offense. 
Very few sentences are life sentences (on average 1 per year)so 
no special estimation procedures were employed to account for this.     

For rape, robbery, and assault, data on sentence length were taken
from Statistics Netherlands publications (Schreuders and others,
2001). For homicide, average custodial sentence length was
estimated from the 1998 study of homicide by Smit and others
(2001); as no better data were available, average sentence length
was set at a stable figure. We set the average duration of the
secure hospital orders that had been added to the number of
incarceration sentences (for rape, assault, homicide and robbery) at
the current average duration of 5 years (see the example for
homicide above). For motor vehicle theft and burglary, no statistics
are available on sentence length. We estimated the average sentence 
length from the SRM study (referred to above) and set this at a fixed 
number of 12.7 months for burglary for all years, and 8.5 months for 
motor vehicle theft for all years.      

The average sentence length for assault equaled 4.7 months in 1999; 
for robbery it equaled 14.2 months; for rape it equaled 27.3 months; 
and for homicide 100.4 months (all including time spent in secure 
hospital surroundings). The average time spent is as stated a 
legally set fraction of the time sentenced; for burglary this
amounted to 95%, for burglary 90%, for assault 100%, for robbery
88%, for rape 70%, and for homicide 67%. 

For example, 63% of robbery convictions entailed a custodial
sentence. The time spent per conviction for robbery thus amounts
to 7.9 months (.63 times 14.2 months times .88). The average time
per offender is a sum- mary measure and includes the probability of
conviction. The multiplication renders an expected incarceration
measure of 2.57 days custodial sentence per robbery offender.
  
Results

Survey crime rates 

The residential burglary rate, as measured through the victimization
surveys, rose from 34.9 per 1,000 households in 1980 to a level
fluctuating between approximately 50 and 60 per 1,000 households
until 1996 and then decreased to 36.2 per 1,000 households in
1999. The motor vehicles theft rate rose from 11.8 per 1,000
households in 1980 to a peak of 16.4 per 1,000 households in 1986,
remaining after some turbulence at a steady level around 14 from
1990-1992, after which it decreased to levels around 8 from 1996 
to 1999. The survey crime rates for motor vehicle theft are highly
unstable, for which we have no explanation. Figures for the robbery
rate were unavailable before 1988, so levels up to that year were
set at the 1998 level. Levels for assault declined apart from a peak
for which we have no explanation in 1984 -- more or less steadily
from 12.9 per 1,000 population in 1981 to a low of 7.7 from 1988 to
1990, after which levels started to rise once more to 11.0 per 1,000
population in 1999.

After a decrease from 12 per 1,000 population in 1988 to a low of 8
per 1,000 population in 1995, robbery rates, however, picked up
sharply to the almost double level of 15.0 per 1,000 population in
1999. It should be noted that these observations are based on only
a few measurement points: incidence levels were taken from the
ICVS, that was administered in 1988, 1991, 1995 and 1999. Given
the small sample size of this survey, the low of 8.0 may be due to
instability because of small numbers of respondents reporting this
offense.

To assess whether crime levels were consistently rising or decreasing 
over time, correlations of crime rates with year were computed. The
correlation coefficient captures linear change. We used all values, 
actually taken from victim surveys and interpolated values as well, 
which should be kept in mind when interpreting the coefficients. We 
consider coefficients larger than .5 in absolute value strong, .33 
to .5 moderate, and correlations lower than .33 in absolute value 
weak. 

The survey rate for burglary showed hardly any correlation with
time, as levels first climbed and after 1994 declined. Correlation
coefficients for the subsequent periods are, however, .8 and -.93,
representing an annual growth of 3.2% and  11.1% respectively. For
motor vehicle theft, we similarly divided 1981-99 into two periods:
the first phase until 1994 show no change in levels while the second
phase indicates decline with a correlation coefficient of -.65 and
corresponding decline of 5.5%. The correlation of survey levels of
assault with year was .87 corresponding to a small growth of 3%.
Robbery levels did not increase or decrease in a linear fashion. 

Recorded crime rates 

The police-recorded burglary rate behaved in a very similar fashion
to the survey rate. It started out at 26 per 10,000 population and
rose to an almost threefold high in 1995 of 73.8, decreasing
subsequently to 59 in 1999. As the curve starts lower than the
survey curve, and ends higher, it does however show an overall
increase over time, reflected by a correlation coefficient of .78 
for the entire period (and a corresponding average annual percentage
increase of 3.5% (for the two periods 1981-94 and 1995-99 the
corresponding coefficients are .93 with an average  growth of 6.1%
and -.81 with an average decline of 2.5%).

Levels for motor vehicle theft started out at 10.2 per 10,000
population in 1981, rose sharply after 1990 to an almost threefold
high peak of 30 in 1994. The data for motor vehicle theft, as
described above, are built from two different series, however. The
second series, that is taken from a centralized registration in effect
since 1995, starts out at 21.3 per 10,000 population and decreases
to 10.94 in 1999. Overall, levels have thus almost doubled. For
motor vehicle theft average annual growth is 3.5% and the
correlation coefficient .69. The first series, that comes from police
registrations, exhibits an average growth of 6.9%; the second series
starts much lower and shows a fairly linear decrease with a
correlation coefficient of -.69 and a corresponding average decline
of 1.8%. Police recorded assault levels have increased steadily
since 1981, from 0.97 per 1,000 population  in 1981 to 2.68 per
1,000 population in 1999. The corresponding correlation coefficient
is .94 and the average annual growth over the years 5.1%. 

The police-recorded robbery rate rose strongly between especially
1981 and 1993 from .3 per 1,000 population to again an almost
threefold 1.07 per 1,000 population, after which it decreased at 
first and then increased sharply again in 1999 to 1.11 per 1,000
population; the correlation coefficient is .93 and the corresponding
growth 6%. 

Recorded rape levels doubled from .1124 in 1981 to .2228 in 1999;
the coefficient over all years is .93 and the corresponding average
annual rise is 2.7%. The data do not exhibit a sudden rise in rape
levels that could reflect the wider definition of rape since employed. 

For homicide, we do see such a level change: after fairly similar
levels fluctuating around .012 until 1987, recorded homicide levels
rose to a level around .016 since, or an overall 30% rise. The
correlation with years amounts to .61, and the average annual
growth is 1.7%. 

Summarizing, police recorded rates for assault, robbery, rape, and
homicide all increased over time. For burglary as well as motor
vehicle theft, levels rose until 1994 and then decreased. While the
increase in terms of the rate was sometimes huge, the average
annual growth in terms of the number of offenses never exceeded 6%. 

Reporting crimes to the police 

The probability that victims report crimes to the police is available
from the ICVS. We have only a few measurement points, therefore,
and will thus not discuss trends. For burglary, the percent of
offenses reported to the police hovered around 90%: it was 94%,
90%, 85%, and 91% in 1988, 1991, 1995, and 1999 respectively.
For motor vehicle theft, these figures were slightly higher: 95%,
90%, 90%, and 94%. For assault, numbers hovered around 42%.
For robbery these figures varied greatly: between 54 and 70%. For
robbery, reporting levels are available for 1988, 1991, 1995, and
1999; they are respectively 54%, 59%, 70%, and 63%. Missing
years were interpolated and extrapolated. 

Recording crimes by the police  

The probability that the police would record a burglary increased
from 23.3% in 1981 to 42.6% in 1999, an 82% increase. For motor
vehicle theft, we see an even steeper and much more ragged (due
to the two series that form the basis of this graph) incline, 
from 22% in 1981 to 54.7% in 1999, a 149% increase. The probability 
of recording a reported assault rose, with a few swings, from 18% in
1981 to 58.1% in 1999, an increase by 323%. Recording levels for
robbery increased from 6% in 1981 to 22.1% in 1995, and then
decreased to 14.3% in 1999; overall the increase is 238%. 

The correlations of recording probabilities with year were large 
for burglary (.84), for motor vehicle theft (.81), and for assault 
(.86). For robbery the increase was way below the .5 mark used 
here. The average annual increase for burglary was 2.9%, for motor 
vehicle theft 5.7%, and for assault 3.1%.

Conviction rates 

The conviction rate for burglary increased from .38 per 1,000
population in 1981 to a stable high level around .57 between
1984-88. Since then, the conviction rate has decreased to .28 per
1,000 population in 1999. For motor vehicle theft, the rate climbed
from .52 in 1981 to a high of .80 in 1985-86, and has since declined
to .39 per 1,000 population in 1999. 

Conviction rates for assault have more than doubled since 1981:
starting at .31, they arrived at .77 per 1,000 population in 1999.
Conviction rates for robbery have in fact more than tripled: in 1981
the rate was .08, which had doubled by 1991, and has since risen to
.27 per 1,000 population. For rape, conviction rates climbed overall,
though not in as marked a fashion as the previous offenses; the
rate in 1981 was .038; by 1999 it had climbed to .051, a rise of 34%.
For homicide, conviction data are available only from 1991 onwards;
the conviction rate before that year is simply a function of population
size times the fraction in the year 1991. Apart from the 'swing' in the
data between 1992 and 1995, for all years the conviction rate hovered 
around .013. 

Conviction rates for burglary did not correlate with year over the
entire observation period; however, for the period 1995-99, the
correlation with year was -.98, with a corresponding average decline
of 12.8%, indicating a strong and linear decline. For motor vehicle
theft, the same applies: for the period 1995-99, the correlation with
year was -.99 with a corresponding average annual decline of 12.3%.

Conviction rates for assault rose in an almost linear fashion, 1980-99: 
the correlation coefficient with year was .95, and the average annual 
increase 4.8%. Conviction rates for robbery also rose in an almost 
linear fashion: the correlation coefficient with year equaled .96 with 
an average annual increase of 8.2%, indicating a truly strong and 
regular increase. Conviction rates for rape correlated less strongly 
with time(.65).     

Probability of an offender being convicted 

The number of convictions per 1,000 burglars decreased with a number 
of peaks from 16.1 in 1981 to 9.6 in 1999. For motor vehicle theft, 
these numbers rose from 82 in 1981 with an intermittent peak in 1984 
to 144 in 1988, and then decreased, again with a peak in 1994, back 
to almost the original level of 83 in 1999.

All in all, the graph for motor vehicle theft appears very jagged, due
firstly to the different series that did not converge in 1994/95, and
secondly to instability for which we have no explanation. The number of
convictions per 1,000 offenders for assault started out at 17.7 in 1981, 
and began to rise strongly after 1985, maintaining a level that hovered 
around 44 in the period 1993-99 -- all in all, an approximately 150% 
increase. 

In 1981 there were a little over 5 convictions per 1,000 robbers; this
number increased sharply to over 20 in 1994, but subsequently decreased 
to 11.22 in 1999, somewhat more than double the starting level. 

The figures for rape and homicide were taken from police files, not
from victim surveys. The figures for rape were fairly regular, apart
from a peak in 1991, declining from 227 per 1,000 rapists in 1981 to
159 per 1,000 offenders in 1999, a 30% decline. 

The irregularity in the homicide conviction rate was due to the
irregularity in homicide convictions, and simply manifests itself
again in this graph. After dropping from 679 per 1,000 offenders in
1991 to 334 in 1993, homicide conviction rates picked up and again
increased by 80% to 603 by 1999. 

The conviction rate per 1,000 burglars decreased (-.86); for motor
vehicle theft it decreased after 1995 (-.77). For rape, the custody
rate also decreased, though not as regularly (-.52).

Probability of custody after a conviction

The probability of a custodial sentence after conviction for burglary
was set at an equal number of .66 all years; we do not have this
type of data for burglary, as burglaries appear lumped with other
types of 'qualified theft' in the criminal justice statistics. Our 
fixed number was estimated from the Prosecution and Sentencing Monitor 
(Wartna and others, 1998), averaged for 1993 and 1995. 

The same estimation procedure applies to motor vehicle theft, which 
may be counted under the article for simple theft or the article for 
qualified theft; the probability was here estimated in the same
manner, and amounted to 44% for all years. 

The percentage of custody given conviction for assault decreased
from 14.1% in 1980 to 5.9% in 1990, after which it jumped to 13.3
and remained at approximately this level until 1999, when it equaled
14.9%.a.) 

The probability of custody after a conviction for robbery has
fluctuated somewhat over the years, at first increasing from .55 in
1980 to .69 in 1984, decreasing again to .69 in 1990, dropping to
.45 in 1993 but increasing again to a level around .64 since 1996. 
It is unknown what may have caused the drop between 1990 and 1994. 

For rape, the percent custody per conviction remained fairly high
(between 80 and 90%) until a (remarkable) high of 99% in 1989;
after that to levels between 63 and 70%. 

For homicide, very few data are available: probability levels varied
between .89 and .94.

Custody rates 

The population custody rate (that is, the number of persons sentenced 
to incarceration per 1,000 population age 12 and older)for burglary 
increased from .249 in 1980 to .387 in 1985, and subsequently decreased 
to a low of .182 in 1999. 

For motor vehicle theft, the population custody rate showed a
similarly shaped curve, rising from .23 in 1980 to a high of .35 
from 1984 to 1986 and decreasing since to a low of .17 in 1999. 

Assault population custody rates decreased from .044 in 1980 to a
low of .024 in 1990, after which rates more than doubled to .058 
in 1991 and have since risen to .114. For robbery, the population
custody rate has risen steadily from .042 in 1980 to .101 in 1993
and sharply since then to around .17 since 1995. 

We have only few data for the rape custody rate until 1990, the rate
hovers around .03 for that period; the rate dropped to a low of .021
in 1992, and has climbed somewhat since to levels around .035.  

The homicide custody rate has climbed steadily over the few years
that we have data for: it rose from .0113 in 1995 to .0127 in 1999.

Average time served  

In the Netherlands, the time served in custody is actually a fixed
fraction of sentence length (see above). Therefore we do not report
the time served but refer to the section on sentence length.
 
Average time served per conviction

The average time served per conviction is for burglary and motor
vehicle theft, a fixed fraction again of mean sentence length. For
burglary, the figure is thus 226 days; for motor vehicle theft it 
is 106 days. For assault, the average time spent per conviction 
has doubled since 1980: after declining from 11.6 days per conviction 
in 1980 to 9 days per conviction in 1990, figures almost doubled in 
1991 to 17.1 in 1991 and rose further to approximately 21 days per 
conviction in 1999. 

The number of days spent per conviction for robbery rose from 198
in 1980 to 299 in 1995 but decreased to 234 in 1999. The average
number of days spent per conviction for rape rose from 259 to a
high of 433 in 1989, after which figures fell to 324, but since 
-- with some ups and downs -- rose again to 373. The average time 
spent per homicide conviction has fluctuated quite a bit probably 
due to small numbers (approximately 150 each year); the average 
time fluctuated between 1,819 days and 2,018 days per conviction. 
It appears as if the average time served has decreased. 

Average time served per offender 

The average number of days spent per burglary offender has clearly
decreased since 1980: with some ups and downs, the average burglar 
was expected to spend 3.6 days behind bars in 1980 and 2.2 days in 
1999. For motor vehicle theft, there is no such gradual decline, 
due to the underlying jagged curve from the victim survey. All in 
all, figures hover between the extremes of 8 and 15 days.  

The number of days spent per assaulter rose like the figure for the
number of days served per conviction, albeit more steeply. While
the average assaulter would be incarcerated for 0.25 days (that is, 
6 hours) in 1980, this expected number of days increased almost
fourfold to 0.94 days (or 22.5 hours) in 1999. 

For robbery, the curve is quite peaked due to the peak in the
victimization estimate that we earlier attributed to instability 
from the small ICVS sample size. Disregarding this peak and 
interpolating as if were level, it appears as if the 'cost' for robbers 
has definitely gone up since 1980, rising from 0.05 per offender in 1980 
to approximately 2.5 per offender towards the end of our observation
period. Rapists could expect to serve 49 days in 1980, and this
figure, with some ups and downs, rose to around 70 from 1996 to
1998, and dropped to 59 in 1999.  For homicide, the average time
served per offender rose from 928 in 1980 to 1,134 in 1999. (Not
shown in figure.)

Explaining the results

According to the various victim surveys employed in this paper,
burglaries and motor vehicle thefts increased up to 1994, and then
decreased. Police data for burglary show a similar trend, although
with a level difference. While unstable, victim survey data seem to
indicate that motor vehicle thefts followed a similar trend. The 
police data for this offense are harder to interpret, as they 
constitute two disjunct series. 

According to the victim surveys, assaults declined, but have been
rising since 1995; police data for this offense exhibited a constant
upward trend. Police recorded robbery rates rose sharply over the
period 1980-99; victim survey data were unstable, but did point to
an overall increase. No victim survey data are available for rape 
and homicide; police recorded rape levels climbed steadily from 
1980 onwards. Homicide levels showed a level change from 1988 
onwards. 

In this section, we will attempt to investigate explanations for these
trends. To start, it is necessary to point out that it is notoriously
difficult to test for such explanations. For accumulated crime trends,
numerous explanations can be envisaged, and in order to test
intricate hypotheses about the mechanisms generating the observed data, 
lots of data would need to be available. However, when testing such
hypotheses, usually (very) short time series are available. Therefore, 
because of the limitations of the data, one often has to resort to 
simple hypotheses that do not by far capture the complex societal 
changes that generate crime levels and changes therein. 

On a more technical note, most of the series that we are analyzing
here, show a clear trend. Such data can only be analyzed validly by
using fairly sophisticated econometric methods. This is far beyond
the aim of this chapter. This should be taken into account, however,
when interpreting any correlations. 

Second, even if series are considered short, they span a period in
which major societal changes can take place and in which public
perception about offenses and their seriousness may change
considerably. For instance, in the Netherlands the definition of rape
was broadened to encompass a much wider span of behavior. While it can 
be tested whether such a legal change gives for a sudden level change, 
the public perception of the serious nature of certain acts that 
underlies and foregoes the legal change is much harder to assess. 

At the same time, the categorization of certain behavior may also be
subject to change; as pointed out above, there are indications that
police and members of the Dutch public increasingly view certain
acts as violent that were (probably) not considered as such
previously. In a society where awareness of and resistance against
violence has been explained as (amongst others) a reaction to an
increasingly unrestricted and violent society, and where at the same
time social cohesion is said to have been declining, the reverse may
also apply: citizens may disregard lesser violent acts, being more
and more used to them, and react to and report only more excessive 
ones. 

Such a changing perception may thus affect crime levels, but the
impact can go both ways. Even if indications of various such trends
may be available, it is impossible to test for their influence in
explaining crime levels: the indications are qualitative and repeated
assessment is unavailable. Even when quantitative explanatory
variables have been measured repeatedly, explaining crime trends
remains hazardous. 

Many socioeconomic indicators change repeatedly, for instance the
definition of unemployment was changed in our observation period.
Then, since the 1980's increasing numbers of couples do not marry,
but cohabitate. While divorces are registered centrally, couples
(with children) splitting up do not emerge in the statistics; a series
measuring the number of divorces therefore captures less and less
the extent of familial disruption ensuing from such breaks. 

Even if such problems would not exist and good series of data were
available, there remains the problem of causal order and causal lag.
Unemployment may generate offending, but offending and detention may 
also generate further unemployment. Then, some changes may generate 
offending at a short lag, and others may take longer to take effect. 
If we do not know the lag at which changes take effect, it is very 
hard to test explanations. 

Lastly, a well-known pitfall is that crime level data are aggregate,
but that explanations deal with individuals. If we would find that
unemployment levels are strongly related to crime levels, the
implication appears to be that unemployed people commit crimes;
for this kind of explanation other data would need to be available,
however. 

For the Netherlands, we believe that special caution is needed
when interpreting survey crime data. As explained above, several
surveys are available, and these do not always give the same
outcome. It is unknown, and not understood by us, how these
differences come about. Others have attempted to explain these
differences, and have not arrived at a conclusive and satisfactory
explanation (Schoen, Defize and Bakker, 2000). Responses are low
and have decreased. 

Police data are, however, hardly ever considered superior as they
are subject to even more uncontrollable influences than surveys, so
that we are left with little more than careful inspection of any 
trends and the drawing of tentative conclusions only. 

In the Netherlands macro-explanations of the crime rate have
mostly been carried out by econometrists.  Van Tulder (1994)
found, using mainly police-recorded offenses on 1983 and 1986,
that deterrence effects could be found for almost all studied
offenses. In general, the clearance rate had a stronger effect.
Sentence duration had no to little deterrent effect. Custodial
sentences were shown to have a high impact through incapacitation, 
mainly for robbery. Criminal justice indicators did however explain 
only 10 to 20% of all (regional) variance in crime; demographic and
socioeconomic indicators were much more important. On the basis of 
one wave of the Victim Survey, he found that reporting rates by 
victims or recording rates by the police did not distort these 
findings.

Theeuwes and Velthoven (1994) analyzed registered offenses for the 
period 1950-90. To be able to perform time series analysis, they
differenced many of their series twice, making interpretation quite
difficult. 

They found that changes in growth of unemployment levels and number of
divorces (a proxy variable for "social norms") were positively related 
to changes in the growth of crime levels; however, changes in growth 
of the clearance rate, the percentage of convictions, and the index 
number for unconditional custodial sentences were negatively related 
to changes in the growth of the crime rate. 

In a further analysis, the second order difference of the proportion 
of the population of nonethnic descent was also shown to have a
positive association with the dependent variable. All in all,
Theeuwes and van Velthoven conclude that unemployment, the clearance 
rate, and sentencing levels contribute significantly to crime levels, 
but that social norms variables have a much stronger impact. 

Van der Torre and van Tulder (2001) analyzed the criminal justice
chain for 1956-99, for four categories of offenses corresponding 
to (aggregated) penal code articles. They differenced the logarithm 
of their variables to be able to estimate coefficients reliably. They
distinguished three types of determinants of crime levels: demographic,
socio-economic, and social factors; secondly, they identified criminal 
justice indicators, such as arrest probability, conviction probability,
incarceration probability, and sentence length; and lastly, they 
pinpointed policy and legal factors such as policy changes and changes 
in legal definition. 

Their analyses showed that for each offense type, at least one criminal
justice indicator has a significant effect. This effect occurs mainly at 
the beginning of the criminal justice chain: sentence length is 
negatively related to qualified theft (article 311, entailing several 
kinds of nonsimple theft, including burglary). The proportion of 
unmarried young males in the population contributed significantly
to simple theft rates. Qualified theft related positively to 
unemployment levels as well as the number of motor vehicles per capita.
Violent offenses are related positively to the number of young male 
second generation migrants per capita. 

All in all, van der Torre and van Tulder conclude that violent
offenses and qualified theft are most strongly influenced by "social"
variables such as unemployment, and that simple theft is influenced
most strongly by criminal justice factors. Beki, Zeelenberg and van
Montfort (1999) analyzed crime levels in the Netherlands from
1950-1993, basing their methodology mainly on that used by Field
(1990). They also use police recorded offenses, but include a
dummy variable to capture possible registration differences that
could explain differences between police-recorded and victim
survey rates since 1984. Independent variables are divided into
categories: economic variables, demographic variables, criminal
justice variables, environmental variables, as well as other variables
reflecting reporting levels and dummy variables such as described
above. They differenced the logarithm of their variables and
performed strict tests to see whether coefficients could be reliably
interpreted.  

Their findings corresponded overall to those of Field (1990): theft is
negatively related to consumption growth. Qualified theft related
positively to a lagged consumption growth variable. A similar
"motivation" effect is found for burglary, shoplifting, and pocket
picking. For car theft they found an opportunity effect as car theft
related positively to consumption growth. Routine activity patterns
were found for criminal damage: increased police strength lead to
more registration for bicycle theft, violence against a person, and
criminal damage; a deterrence effect is found only for vehicle theft. 

Clearance rates have a deterrent effect on simple theft. A deterrence 
effect was also found for the number of people convicted of car theft, 
fraud, violence against a person, and shoplifting. No incapacitation 
effect was found. Automating police registration had a significant 
effect on recorded car thefts only. 

For our data, we compute simply correlations between levels of the
variables over the years. Because of the short series and clear
trend in most series, we have to be cautious in interpreting these
coefficients, and it is not surprising that many of our findings differ
with those found using more adequate and sophisticated models employed 
over different and longer time periods, using often different variables,
although with the same caption. 

For our series covering 1980-99, survey and recorded rates correlated 
well for burglary and assault. The negative correlations for motor 
vehicle theft and robbery can be convincingly attributed to instability 
of the underlying data: for motor vehicle theft this was due to the 
police data consisting of two (disjunct) series, for robbery to 
instability in the small ICVS sample. 

Given the overall upward trend in crime levels from 1980 to 1999,
one would expect that most crime levels would correlate as well.
Survey property offenses and survey violent offenses correlated
indeed: motor vehicle theft and burglary correlated .35, which is
moderate, and assault and robbery correlated .56. Survey property
offenses and survey violent offenses correlated negatively
(correlation coefficients varying between -.55 and -.80); it appears
thus as if a decrease in one type of survey offense is accompanied
by an increase in the other type of survey offense. 

We see the same pattern for the police data: here, however, all
correlations were fairly high, also between property and violent
offenses. Given the fact that almost all series show a clear upward
trend, this is not surprising. We disregard police-recorded motor
vehicle theft because of the instability due to the two disjunct 
series. Apart from the correlation between police-recorded burglary and
police-recorded rape which appears spuriously high (.83), we see
that correlation patterns are well interpretable. 

Police-recorded robbery, having a violent as well as a property
element, also correlated highly with both burglary (.90), assault (.79)
and rape (.91). Burglary being a "purely" property offense correlated
less strongly with assault, being a "pure" violent offense (.57). Rape
correlated highly with assault (.88) as well as robbery (.91).  All
correlations with homicide were -- though still strong -- lower, which
is not surprising as homicide exhibited a fairly 'flat' curve with only
one level change.

Off-diagonal correlations between survey and recorded crime rates
behaved generally as expected. Disregarding recorded motor
vehicle theft and survey robbery because of instability, it appears
that recorded rates for burglary correlated weakly and negatively
with survey motor vehicle theft (-.12), and hardly at all with assault;
recorded levels for robbery correlated best with survey burglary as
well as survey assault (.37 and .54 respectively); recorded levels for
assault correlated best with survey robbery, recorded levels for rape
correlated highest with assault (.87) and negatively with motor
vehicle theft (-.38); recorded levels of homicide correlated weakly
with all other survey offenses, apart from a just moderate negative
correlation with assault. 

It appears thus as if homicide is an offense that stands out, on its
own so to say, while the other offenses though not in all cases,
and not always that strongly behaved in the sense that property
offenses were interrelated in their trend, violent offenses were
interrelated in their trend, and property and violent offenses
correlated negatively, with robbery assuming an intermediate
position and correlating with both property and violent offenses.
There are correlations between survey and recorded crime rates
and a number of socioeconomic indicators. 

All previous studies used only recorded crime rates, and survey
rates can be argued to be more valid indicators of the actual volume
of crime. Of course, the length of the series analyzed here are for
that reason shorter as victim surveys have been carried out for
shorter spans. The socioeconomic indicators we use are: the
percentage of the population age 15-24, the percentage of young
males in the population, the percentage of unemployed males,
consumer expenditure per capita, GDP as well as the year-to-year
change in GDP per capita, alcohol consumption per capita, the
number of vehicles per capita and the police strength per capita.
Consumer expenditure and GDP figures were corrected for inflation
to 1980 prices. 

The correlation coefficients do not indicate causality; in fact,
because of the strong trend in most rates and indicators,
correlations may simply reflect a common trend and no real relation.
We focus mainly on correlations larger than .5 in absolute value,
which we consider strong, correlations between .33 and .5 in
absolute value we consider moderate, and those lower than that we
consider weak. 

Apart from moderate correlations for survey motor vehicle theft and
survey robbery (that we do not want to attach too much significance
to because of obvious instability), neither survey nor recorded crime
rates correlated as expected with the percentage of the population
between the ages 15 and 24. Survey burglary and survey assault
did not correlate noticeably at all; all correlations with recorded
crime rates were negative, indicating that higher percentages of
15-24 year olds were related to lower recorded crime rates. Only
survey motor vehicle theft and survey robbery were positively
related to the percentage of 15-20 year-old males in the population. 
To repeat, all recorded crime rates correlated negatively with the
percentage of 15-20 year-old males. 

Survey as well as recorded burglary rates correlated positively with
the percentage of unemployed males. For robbery and assault (recorded 
as well as survey rates) and for rape and homicide for which we have 
only recorded rates, correlations were negative.  Inflation adjusted 
GDP per capita as well as yearly changes in this indicator correlated 
almost invariably strongly and positively with all recorded crime rates. 

Survey robbery and assault correlate positively with GDP per capita,
but do not relate with year-to-year changes in GDP. Only survey
motor vehicle theft correlates as expected with GDP and GDP
change: increased GDP relates to lower levels of motor vehicle
theft, while a decrease in GDP corresponds with an increase in
motor vehicle thefts. 

Alcohol consumption per capita is negatively related with all
recorded crime rates. It relates negatively to survey burglary and
relates moderately positively to survey robbery. Again, because of
survey robbery's instability, we do not believe a lot of importance
can be attached to its correlation. 

The number of vehicles per capita relates strongly and positively to
all recorded crime rates. It relates just moderately to survey robbery
and strongly to survey assault. It correlates negatively only with
survey motor vehicle theft, apparently contradicting an opportunity
effect. 

Finally, the police strength per capita relates positively with recorded
robbery, assault and rape. It correlates positively with survey assault
and negatively with survey motor vehicle theft. These results do not
correspond with our expectations. Some results were predicted from
criminological theory, but as these confirmations are accompanied by 
many, if not more, results that are quite contrary to expectations, it 
does not seem defensible to highlight only confirmed hypotheses. 

All in all, recorded crime rates correlated merrily with anything that
exhibited a similar upward trend. Only burglary and homicide are
less susceptible to such spurious effects as their curves had a
particular shape; motor vehicle theft, with its broken curve is harder
to interpret anyway. However, looking at the correlations of all
indicators with recorded burglary and recorded homicide, the pattern of
correlations is the same for both crimes: a positive association with the
percentage of unemployed males, consumer expenditure, GDP and GDP change 
and the number of vehicles, a negative association with the percentage 
of young (male)population, and a negative association with alcohol
consumption. 

It does appear odd that two such widely different offenses would
have the same socioeconomic predictors associated with them. For
the survey offenses, the situation is less suspect. Burglary is
positively related to unemployment levels for males, and negatively
to alcohol consumption. Motor vehicle theft is positively related to
the percentage of young (male) people, and negatively to GDP per
capita, the number of vehicles, and police strength per capita.
Assault is hard to interpret: it is associated negatively with the
percentage of young males, positively with employment, GDP per
capita and with the number of vehicles and police strength per
capita, thus reflecting perhaps mainly a "welfare"- effect among
older people. One would then, however, expect alcohol
consumption to have a positive association, but it does not.

Moving on to the criminal justice indicators, we see how the percent
recorded offenses correlate negatively with survey motor vehicle
theft and survey robbery, and correlate positively with assault. The
conviction rate per population correlates positively with survey
burglary, with survey motor vehicle theft and with survey assault,
indicating that higher levels of these survey offenses are related to
higher conviction rates in the population. The conviction rate per
population relates only to recorded robbery, assault, and rape. For
homicide, the relation is moderately negative. The correlations with
the conviction rate per offender are markedly different for most
crime rates: survey motor vehicle theft and survey robbery correlate
negatively, indicating a deterrence effect of conviction. Recorded
burglary, recorded rape and recorded homicide exhibit the same
association, but robbery and assault correlate strongly positively,
pointing to higher conviction rates per offenders being related to
higher numbers of these crimes, which seems hard to interpret. 

The custody rate per capita relates positively to survey burglary,
survey motor vehicle theft and survey assault: higher numbers of
these crimes are thus associated with higher custody rates, pointing
to neither a deterrence nor an incapacitation effect. For the
recorded crime rates, the pattern of associations is much the same
as with the conviction rate per capita, which is not surprising as the
two measures are based on the same underlying data.

The probability of custody given conviction has a positive relation
with recorded as well as survey assault rates, indicating that higher
levels of this crime are related to higher probabilities of custody
given conviction.  A deterrence effect in the form of a negative
association between the probability of custody given conviction was
found only for rape. The custody rate per offender has fairly strong
associations with most crime rates: a deterrence effect in the form
of higher custody rates being associated with lower crime rates was
found for survey motor vehicle theft, survey robbery, recorded rape
and recorded homicide; high crime rates were associated with high
custody rates per offender for survey as well as recorded assault
and recorded robbery. We have no information on sentence lengths
for burglary and motor vehicle theft. 

Sentence length is positively related to recorded robbery, assault,
rape, and homicide levels, indicating that with increasing recorded
rates, sentence lengths increased as well. As time served is a fixed
fraction of sentence length, the pattern for time served is identical.
Survey robbery is negatively associated with sentence length as
well as time served, indicating a deterrence effect. The number of
days served per conviction is positively associated with assault,
indicating that higher levels of assault are related to longer
incarcerations per conviction. The same applies to recorded
robbery, assault, rape, and homicide. The number of days served
per offender, which may be seen as a more general expected loss
measure per active offender, is associated negatively with survey
motor vehicle theft, survey robbery, recorded burglary and recorded
homicide. Recorded as well as survey assault, and recorded robbery 
and rape all had positive correlations with the number of days spent 
per offender.

As the time between the actual commission of a crime and conviction may 
take well over a year, and in many cases more than that, we also computed 
the correlations between the survey rate lagged one year and the criminal
justice indicators conviction rate per offender, custody rate per offender 
and the number of days spent per offender, as well as between these lagged
indicators and the crime rate; in this way causal relations can be better
investigated. Surprisingly, or perhaps not so surprisingly considering
the fact that most variables had strong upward trends, the correlation 
between the lagged versions did not differ much either way. They were 
also quite similar to the correlations between the unlagged versions of 
the variables. 

For survey motor vehicle theft, the deterrence effect disappeared;
however, this is the offense that one would expect to be dealt with
most expeditiously in the criminal justice system. Differences with
the correlations between the unlagged versions were found only for
homicide; however, as the rates for homicide are fairly jagged and
flat, and data are based on only approximately 150 convicted
offenders per year, and as the correlations between the lagged
versions also did not show a consistent pattern, we do not attach
conceptual significance to this. 

When the correlations are examined column wise, that is, from a
crime point of view, burglary appears a rational offense. Burglary 
rates, for survey and recorded combined, are related to lower numbers 
of young males (so relatively more older males), more unemployed males, 
more opportunity in terms of vehicles, GDP and consumer expenditure, 
and conviction rates, custody rates and days served per offender show 
a consistent - though not always consistently strong -- negative 
relation. Increased numbers of burglaries are accompanied by increased
conviction and custody rates in the population. The correlations for 
the lagged recorded rates do not give a conclusive answer as to what 
causes what: it appears as if -- for the recorded rate -- increased 
numbers of burglaries in year one are related to decreased numbers of
conviction rates, custody rates and days served. 

This could point to a capacity-effect in the sense that when more
offenses occur and judges know that prison capacity is stretched to
the maximum, shorter custodial and/or more alternative(noncustodial) 
sentences are passed. It is then odd that the same would apply to the
conviction rate as such. 

All in all, the correlations maybe due more to a common trend than 
to any real relation. For the survey data, the correlation between the
lagged variables are quite small; if at all, these would point to the
crime rate having a stronger effect on the criminal justice reaction
than vice versa. For motor vehicle theft, we consider the survey
data more reliable. Motor vehicle theft then emerges as a fairly
young offense, with economic (shortage) motives, susceptible to
deterrence as indicated by a negative relation with police strength
and with various criminal justice "penalty" variables. This underlined
by the lagged correlation that show a weak but stronger effect for
the deterrence hypotheses. We consider the recorded data for robbery 
better than the survey data(see above). 
                                   
For assault, recorded as well as survey data can be used. All these
three rates have grown immensely during our investigation period,
so caution has to be exercised when relating this rate to economic
indicators that grew as well over this period. It appears as if 
robbery is a fairly older offender, opportunistic type of offense; 
most criminal justice indicators grew with the rate itself, and only 
for the probability of custody given conviction a small--deterrence 
effect emerges. The deterrent effect for the length of the sanction 
that other authors found can not be discerned (of course, we use the 
actual rates here and not the detrended logarithms that they did).

More in-depth analyses are needed to see whether similar results
do indeed emerge when the data are treated in this way. The
pattern for recorded assault is strikingly similar to that for 
robbery except that no deterrent effect at all emerges. The 
correlations of the indicators with survey assault are fairly 
similar as those with recorded assault: consumer expenditure 
correlates weakly negatively with the rate now, indicating an 
economic element, and we do see weak but negative correlation 
indicative of deterrence: for the conviction rate per offender, 
for time served and sentence length. 

On the other hand, the days served per offender again relates
positively with the survey assault rate. Again, when lagging the
variable, it appears as if the number of convictions rather than
custody rate or days served has a deterrent effect on the crime 
rate the year next. The socio-economic indicators correlate with 
rape rates so as to indicate overall volume growth. The 
correlations are in size and sign similar to those for robbery and 
assault. 

The criminal justice indicators behave differently however. Here, 
the indicators at the beginning of the criminal justice chain show 
a deterrent effect: both the conviction rate per offender, the 
probability of custody given conviction and the custody rate per 
offender have strong negative correlation with the recorded crime 
rate. Indicators relating to sentence duration have a positive 
association with the crime rate. The lagged correlation indicate 
that the crime rate and the criminal justice reaction relate 
negatively both ways. 

Homicide appears to be unrelated to police strength, and to be
positively associated with unemployment; otherwise correlation are
quite similar to those of the former three violent offenses. The
criminal justice indicators point to a deterrent effect as embodied 
by the conviction rate and the custody rate. The probability of 
custody given conviction does not correlate, which is quite logical 
as the probability is almost 100%. The lagged correlations show an
inconsistent pattern that we find hard to interpret. 

In conclusion, it should be said that we believe that the main merit
of this chapter is that it attempts to present criminal justice data 
and crime trends for the Netherlands in such a way that international
comparisons are viable. The correlations between the crime rates
and other indicators with the years do not give convincing arguments 
for a rise or fall of these figures as the underlying data are 
uncertain and findings can be explained with a variety of quite
different arguments. We believe that the ideal situation would be for
offenders to be systematically tracked down in the criminal justice
system; only then could we see clearly how offenses are linked to
sanctions. 

In addition, the police registration of offenses should improve in 
the sense that we have a better grasp of what offenses are registered
and why and what not, as well as in the sense that not only penal
article codes are entered but that the social qualification of the
offense (burglary, motor vehicle theft, vehicle theft) is entered as
well. Such an ideal is perhaps overly optimistic when the police are
judged on their performance on the basis of this same registration
system. 

Last, but definitely not least, we believe that a large and concerted
effort is needed to better understand what the Dutch victim survey
data mean. As stated, we have three regular surveys and they do not 
always, to put it mildly, give the same results. These differences
are problematic. We believe that in all likelihood none of the three
validly measure the true incidence of crime. In-depth, long, broad
and costly studies are needed to get a better grasp on this. While
we plan to perform in a subsequent publication more sophisticated
analyses on the data presented here, only such grass roots work
can shed light on a troubled phenomenon as the crime rate.

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Acknowledgments 

We thank Ad Essers and Cor Cozijn for their support in carrying 
out analyses using the Prosecution and Sentencing Monitor for 
this paper. We thank them and Bert Berghuis, Frits Huls, and Erik
Spaans for their comments on earlier versions of this manuscript.

Authors

Catrien C.J.H. Bijleveld Netherlands Institute for the Study of 
Crime and Law Enforcement & Free University, Amsterdam The
Netherlands.

Paul R. Smit WODC Research & Documentation Center Ministry of
Justice The Netherlands. 

Scotland

Introduction

Over the past 400 years (since 1603) Scotland has been a part of a
multi-national British state, although the threads of integration have
been drawn more tightly or loosely at different periods, and the form 
of the political institutions that link Scotland with the other British
nations has changed at various times. Throughout the long history of 
the shifting relationships between the nations within the British Isles, 
the legal system of Scotland has always remained distinct, as has its
educational system and established church. 

In Scots law common law principles have even more influence than in
English law, yet at the same time, Scots law has also been more strongly
influenced by a civil and Roman law tradition received from a range of
other European countries. Nevertheless, the similarities between Scots
and English law are close, and the police and criminal justice systems 
in the two countries are also organized along broadly similar lines. 
So Scotland provides an example of a small country of around 5 million
people having its own separate law and criminal justice system, but
existing in a close relationship with England, which has 10 times
Scotland's population and economic output.

Comparisons between Scotland and England are particularly useful. The
two countries, closely related although distinct, are politically, 
culturally, and economically similar in many ways. If there is a contrast 
in trends between the two countries, then possible explanations can be
narrowed down to a reasonably small number. By contrast possible 
explanations for a difference in trends between England and, say, the 
United States, or Japan, are far more numerous. It turns out that trends 
in crime over the past 50 years have been substantially different in 
Scotland and England, and this difference should be a focus of analysis 
for comparative research.

The rise in recorded crime in Scotland since 1950 was considerably less
than in England. For example between 1950 and 1995, recorded robberies
increased by 15 times in Scotland, compared with 67 times in England; 
and housebreaking increased by less than 3 times in Scotland, whereas
burglaries increased by over 13 times in England. In Scotland the 
increases were considerably greater over the first 21 years, from
1950 to 1971, than over the following period from 1972. In England the
increases were greater over the later period.***Footnote 1:  These
statistics are fully documented, with their sources, in Smith and Young
(1999).*** 

Crime survey results for Scotland show a flat trend from 1981 to 1992,
and a falling trend from 1992 to 1999 in all survey crimes. These trends
in Scotland contrast sharply with the continued rise in recorded and
survey crime in England up to the mid 1990's. From the available
evidence, it is not possible to establish a clear explanation for this
contrast between similar countries with distinct but similar criminal 
justice systems. One explanation that seems to be ruled out by the evidence
presented in this chapter is that the slower rise and earlier leveling off 
of crime in Scotland was caused by an increase in the probability or 
severity of punishment. There was no marked increase over the period of the
crime surveys (1981-99) in the number of convictions, the probability of
conviction, or the severity of sentences for the offenses considered here,
although there were some substantial short-lived changes in some
instances.

An important question highlighted by the Scottish example is "What is the
appropriate scale of analysis for comparative research in this field?"
There are obvious dangers in comparing Scotland, a country of 5 million
people and a single jurisdiction, with the United States, with its 
population of 300 million (some 60 times that of Scotland) and its 50
jurisdictions and federal layer of law enforcement. It is possible that 
the contrast between Scotland and England is connected with the difference 
in scale: one way forward, for example, might be to compare Glasgow,
Edinburgh, Aberdeen, or Dundee with cities of comparable size in England 
or elsewhere.

Criminal process in Scotland

Scotland has a predominantly adversarial system of criminal justice,
although the public prosecutor in Scotland (unlike England) is a
long-established institution, and partly for that reason there are
considerable inquisitorial elements in pre-trial procedure. Although the
flow of criminal process can be extremely complex in detail, there are a
few leading points that are worth noting in the context of the present
study. 

First, the Procurator Fiscal, the central element of the public prosecution
system, makes most of the key decisions that determine whether
complaints will result in criminal proceedings. Overall responsibility for
public prosecutions rests with the Lord Advocate, the principal law officer
of the Crown in Scotland, and a member of the government of the day.
But the Lord Advocate deals with prosecution through the procurator
fiscal service, which both processes all criminal cases, and actually
prosecutes criminal cases in the lower courts (Sheriff and
District).***Footnote 2:  Prosecution in the High Court of Justiciary is
conducted for the Lord Advocate by Advocates Depute, of which there
are 12.*** The police and other bodies submit reports of crimes and
offenses committed to the Procurator Fiscal, who then decides whether
to dispose of them by prosecution or some other method.

Second, the Scottish system avowedly incorporates a large element of
discretion in decision making about prosecution or other disposal of
cases. Following Young (1997: 69), the Scottish system works on the
"principle of opportunity and expediency" in contrast to systems where 
the prosecutor must, in theory, proceed in every case if there is 
sufficient evidence: these are said to work on the "principle of 
legality." 

"Generally, there are said to be two grounds on which prosecution
decisions are made: whether there is enough evidence to justify a
prosecution and whether it is in the public interest to do so." 
(Young, 1997: 65)

Third, there has been continuing pressure, over many years, to divert
cases from the courts. This development was given particular impetus by
the reports of the Thomson Committee and the Stewart Committee,
which advocated that prosecution should be reserved for more serious
crimes. It has led, for example, to the introduction of fiscal fines, 
whereby the fiscal makes the offer of a fixed penalty as an alternative 
to prosecution in court. Diversion to psychiatric, reparation, or 
mediation schemes, and to social work services, is also possible, 
although less widely used.

Fourth, since 1971 Scotland has had a unique system of Children's 
Hearings which deals with most complaints against children up to the 
age of 16, and may continue to deal with them until they reach the 
age of 18. The main features of this system are that the hearings deal 
with a wide range of matters affecting children, whether as victims, 
accused, or both; they are tribunals of lay members, and not courts; 
they do not decide on questions of guilt, so if the child denies an 
offense, the matter may have to be referred to a court for such a 
decision; and the central criterion of their decision making is the 
welfare of the child, so their disposals are never explicitly punitive.

Fifth, Scotland has no national police force, but instead has eight 
regional forces (after a series of amalgamations of much larger numbers 
in the past). Like the prosecution, the police are expected to exercise 
wide discretion. It has been shown that the police do not record many 
crimes and offenses that are reported to them; and they exercise 
considerable discretion in deciding whether to refer cases to the 
procurator fiscal or take some other course.

These broad points are illustrated in more detail by figure A, a general
flowchart showing numbers passing through each stage of the process
in a recent year (1999). It shows, for example, that the police recorded
435,703 crimes (more serious) and 504,450 offenses (less serious) but
cleared up 43% of the crimes and 96% of the offenses.***Footnote 3,4: 
Broadly, satisfied themselves they had evidence pointing to the offender. 
Although there are official criteria for defining a clear-up, there is
evidence in England that these have been applied in widely different 
ways by different police forces.***
***Footnote 4:  The clear-up rate is high for offenses, because many
offenses only become known to police if the offender is identified, 
as in public disorder.***  Of the 672,502 crimes and offenses cleared up,
281,708 (42%) were reported to the procurator fiscal, so the police
decided to deal with a very large number in other ways. The number of
persons proceeded against in court was 52% of the number of reports
received by the procurator fiscal, and this proportion has been falling 
in recent years as various avenues of diversion have opened up.***Footnote
5:  There may be some problems with counting rules here, since "reports
received by the Procurator Fiscal" are cases, whereas "persons
proceeded against" refers to occasions on which a person is proceeded
against" may involved more than one offense, but they may not always
correspond, as in one "case" may give rise to more than one set of
"proceedings."*** For example, the proportion of reports leading to
proceedings dropped from 58% in 1994 to 52% in 1999. The flowchart
also shows the many disposals by fiscals that bypass prosecution. As 
an example the fiscal referred 2,222 cases to the Reporter, who is the
gatekeeper to the Children's Hearings, issued 18,709 fiscal warnings, 
and imposed 17,694 fiscal fines. Among the 146,841 persons who came to 
court, 87% were found guilty on some charge, and 16,091 (11%) received 
a custodial sentence.

There are two forms of trial: solemn procedure and summary procedure.
The more serious cases are normally heard by solemn procedure, but the
vast majority are heard by summary procedure. The essential difference
between them is that in summary procedure, the case is heard by a judge
sitting alone, whereas in solemn procedure the verdict is decided by a
jury of 15 citizens, while the sentence is determined by the judge. In
addition to deciding whether a person should be prosecuted, the
Procurator Fiscal decides which procedure will be used (although there
is little or no room for discretion in the case of certain crimes and
offenses).

There are three levels of criminal court in Scotland: the District Court, 
the Sheriff Court, and the High Court of Justiciary. The judges in the
District Courts are called justices and are lay individuals except that 
in Glasgow there are also stipendiary magistrates who are professional
lawyers. District Courts only hear cases under summary procedure. The 
Sheriff Courts have jurisdiction in both summary and solemn criminal 
cases. The Sheriff who presides is an experienced professional lawyer. 
The High Court of Justiciary deals only with serious cases and ones 
that raise important points of law that need to be decided.

In the Scottish system the accused must plead guilty or not guilty before
the trial. If the plea is guilty, the court proceeds directly to sentencing,
and there is no trial. The great majority of cases (98%) are heard by 
summary procedure, and in most of these cases the plea is guilty. Only 1% 
of cases involve a trial in which evidence is led. There is an elaborate
procedure in both summary and solemn cases through which the court
examines the evidence before a trial, and the accused normally decides
on a plea at some point during this procedure. It is this pre-trial
investigatory procedure which is largely inquisitorial in character.

Purpose of the present analysis

The analysis aims to marshal the best available evidence on crime trends
for selected crimes in Scotland from 1981 onwards, using both crime
surveys and recorded crime statistics. Following the methods agreed for
this comparative study, an important objective is to make close
comparisons between the estimates from crime surveys and police records. 
This involves adjusting the recorded crime statistics to bring them in 
line with the coverage of crime surveys: for example, thefts of
commercial vehicles and offenses against children are not covered by the
Scottish Crime Survey. However a further aim is to show the unadjusted
recorded crime statistics, as these provide an alternative measure and
hence an alternative trend line.

The analysis aims to estimate the numbers at key stages of criminal
process (convictions, sentences of custody) and the average length of
custodial sentences. The purpose is to make these estimates closely
comparable with the statistics on levels of crime, so that, for example, 
the number of convictions can be related to the number of offenders. As
discussed further in the next section, there are considerable difficulties
involved in achieving this, and estimates are inevitably based partly on
guesswork. However, these guesses do not have a critical influence (or
often any influence) on trends over time, and it will be largely by 
focusing on time trends that methodological difficulties can be overcome.

It should be clear even from the summary account of the Scottish
criminal justice process that the path from offense to successful
prosecution or some alternative outcome can have many twists, loops,
and bends, and usually does. The key stages selected for consideration
in this comparative project leave out much of the process, so it cannot 
be an aim to describe any significant part of the richness and complexity 
of the system. Rather the aim is to provide a few key indicators that can 
be the focus of comparison between countries. Because the main indicators
chosen are crime, convictions, and custodial sentences, the results will
be relevant mainly to debate about the deterrent effect of criminal process
and sanctions. I argue that Scotland is a crucial example in this debate.

Methods

Definitions of the six crimes

Burglary (known as housebreaking in Scotland)

A substantial proportion of all housebreaking involves commercial
premises, and cannot therefore be covered by the Scottish Crime Survey.
In this chapter recorded crime statistics are provided for all
housebreaking, but an estimate is also given for domestic housebreaking. 
There was a major definition revision in 1972, outside the scope of the
present analysis: this would need to be considered when looking at 
longer-term trends in the recorded crime figures on housebreaking.

Crime survey definition: break-in and attempted break-ins to residential
property whether or not anything was taken.

Recorded crime definition: theft by housebreaking, housebreaking with
intent to steal, and attempted housebreaking with intent to steal.

Theft of motor vehicles

These offenses do not include theft from a motor vehicle if there was no
attempt to take or drive away the vehicle itself. The Scottish Crime
Survey does not cover theft of commercial vehicles, which are a
considerable proportion of those shown in the recorded crime statistics.

Crime survey definition: theft of privately owned car, van, motorbike,
motor scooter or moped.

Recorded crime definition: theft of motor vehicle and contents including
taking and driving away; including attempts.

Robbery

Crime survey definition: robbery and attempted robbery.

Recorded crime definition: robbery and assaults with intent to rob.

Assault

Assault is a common law offense in Scotland, and there is no significant
distinction in law between serious and petty assault. However, recorded
crime statistics have for many years shown a separate count for serious
assault. An assault is now defined as serious if the victim sustained an
injury resulting in detention in hospital as an in-patient or any of the
following injuries whether or not detained in hospital: fractures,
concussion, internal injuries, crushing, severe cuts or lacerations or
severe general shock requiring medical treatment. There was a change
in this definition in 1990 which, when applied to the 1989 data, reduced
the count for serious assaults to 84% of the count based on the old
definition. Scottish Crime Survey reports have never shown serious
assault separately, because the margins of error would be wide (as the
crime is relatively uncommon). 

The main series of statistics in this chapter is for serious and petty
assault combined: this overcomes definition problems in recorded crime
statistics, and supports comparison with crime survey estimates. A series
of recorded crime statistics for serious assault alone from 1980-99 is also
shown. For 1980-88 the statistics have been adjusted to deal with the
definition problem.

Crime survey definition (all assault): serious wounding, other wounding,
assault with injury, and attempted assault.

Recorded crime definitions: serious assault: attempted murder, assault
where the victim sustained an injury resulting in detention in hospital 
as an in-patient or sustained injuries involving fractures, concussion,
internal injuries, crushing, severe cuts or lacerations or severe general
shock requiring medical treatment. 

Petty assault: other assaults.

Rape

Because numbers would be too small, crime survey results are not available.
The recorded crime definition is rape and assault with intent to rape. It 
does not include indecent assault.

Homicide

The definition (recorded crime statistics only) includes murder, common-
law culpable homicide, and statutory culpable homicide. It does not 
include causing death by dangerous driving, which is known in Scotland 
as statutory homicide under Section 1 and Section 3A of the Road Traffic 
Act 1988.

Scottish crime survey data

The first crime survey was carried out in Scotland in 1982 as part of the
first British Crime Survey. Further surveys have been carried out in 1988,
1993, 1996, and 2000. In each case the victimization estimates refer to
the calendar year prior to the survey. After the first survey in 1982, the
Scottish Crime Survey has been carried out independently from the British
Crime Survey, which in fact covers only England and Wales. Because close
comparisons are made between survey and recorded crime statistics, offense
definitions must inevitably be different in detail in Scotland. Some other
technical differences between the British and Scottish surveys developed 
in the 1980's, but in the 1990's the surveys have been closely harmonized
although separately managed.

The sample size for each Scottish survey has been around 5,000. Although 
this is large in relation to the population, the sampling error depends 
almost entirely on the sample size rather than its fraction of the
population. Because victimization is not common, estimates based on
a sample of this size are subject to substantial margins of error, wide
enough to make it difficult to discern time trends for some offenses.
Stratified probability methods are used to draw the samples for these
surveys (the exact methods have changed substantially over the last 20
years as new sources of data for sampling have become available). This
means that the true sampling errors are higher than with a simple 
random sample. In this chapter the confidence limits quoted are based on
calculations of the complex sampling errors, which take account of the
design factor associated with the stratification procedure.

The 1982 and 1988 crime surveys were conducted only in central and
southern Scotland, which currently includes about 86% of the total
population of Scotland. From 1993 onwards the surveys were extended
to the whole of Scotland (except for small islands). The statistics in 
the present study inflate the results of the 1982 and 1988 surveys to 
produce estimates of crime rates for the whole of  Scotland.***Footnote 
6: The reports on the first two crime surveys provided estimates of the
numbers of offenses for the whole of Scotland.  These were produced by
calculating a crime rate for central and southern Scotland, then grossing
this up to the population of the whole country. These estimates are
rather inaccurate, because crime rates in the less densely populated
areas excluded from the surveys were lower than in the main centers of
population that were included.  An improved method of estimation was
therefore sought in the present study.***  We reviewed the possibility 
of using the 1993 crime survey as the source of the inflation factors. 
The percentage of victimizations in the 1993 survey that were outside 
central and southern Scotland is shown below.***Footnote 7: Calculated 
from statistics given in the Appendix Tables A2.2 and A2.3 of the 
report on the 1993 crime survey (Anderson and Leitch, 1996).***

The result for robbery is obviously unsatisfactory, presumably because
of sampling error. We therefore decided to use recorded crime statistics
rather than the 1993 crime survey to estimate the inflation factors. The
relevant recorded crime statistics for 1981 and 1987 were supplied by the
Home Department. The calculation of the inflation factors is summarized
in the table below.    

Survey-based crime rates were calculated by relating the new
survey-based estimates of the volume of crime to estimates of the
number of households (household crime) or the number of persons age
15+ (personal crime) in the relevant year. Population estimates were the
mid-year estimates for quinary age groups published by the General
Register Office for Scotland (2002). Estimates of the number of households
were provided by the Scottish Office Housing Statistics Branch. These did 
not match exactly with the household and population estimates quoted in the
published crime survey reports, and all estimates in the present chapter 
have been freshly calculated.

The proportion of crimes identified by the survey that were reported to the
police is estimated from the published results of the surveys. The report
on the 1996 crime survey (MVA, 1998) provides data from the earlier
survey on the proportion of incidents reported to the police in 1985 both
for the whole of Scotland and for central and southern Scotland alone.
There is very little difference between the two sets of figures. Therefore,
the reporting rates for 1981 and 1987 in central and southern Scotland
have been applied to the estimates of the volume of crime for the whole
of Scotland.

Police-recorded crime

In Scotland crimes are recorded by the police at the time they are
reported to them. The police may or may not take action with respect to
a recorded crime, so the fact that it has been recorded does not imply
that they have launched an investigation. Nevertheless, one traditional
method of assessing police performance is in terms of the proportion of
recorded crimes that are "cleared up," that is crimes for which the police
believe they have identified an offender. This means that the structure of
the system imposes pressure on the police to maintain the clear-up rate,
and one way of achieving that is to avoid recording crimes which are
unlikely to be cleared up. The present findings in fact suggest that a
considerable proportion of crimes reported to the police are not recorded
by them. This may often be for legitimate reasons (for example, the police
believe there was no offense).
 
Over the period covered by this study (1981-1999), there was increasing
emphasis on assessing police performance, accompanied by the development 
of much more elaborate measures of performance. Thus, while pressure to
improve performance certainly increased, the range of measures available 
also became more diverse, so that relatively less weight was placed on
clear-up rates.

This was the changing background to police recording practices. At the
same time there was an increase in the technical resources of the police,
and probably an improvement in crime recording systems. In the official
report on recorded crime in Scotland 1999 it is stated that --

"Both Fife Constabulary and Lothian & Borders police introduced
improved crime recording systems which led to substantial increases in
the numbers of crimes they recorded. It is likely that, had the recorded
crime figures not been affected by the changes in recording systems, the
increases in these two areas would have been more than offset by the
substantial decrease in crime recorded in Strathclyde, and the overall
crime figures for Scotland would have fallen." (add citation)

There were no important changes in the formal rules governing the
recording of crime by the police, except for specific new provisions 
for recording racially motivated incidents.

No statistical returns on arrests are compiled in Scotland, although the
arrests are recorded individually.

Comparable recorded crime

It was necessary to produce estimates of the volume of recorded crime
in each offense category that was comparable to crime covered by the
survey. Statistics on the number of crimes recorded by the police in the
relevant offense categories (see definitions above) were provided by the
Home Department.***Footnote 8:  Statistics provided by the Home
Department correspond with the published statistics (Statistical Bulletin
Criminal Justice Series, Recorded Crime in Scotland, annual) but make
use of some unpublished analyses.*** However, recorded crime statistics
include a substantial number of incidents that could not be counted in 
the crime survey for a variety of reasons. 

Over the years the Home Department has collected information from police
forces, and from other sources, from which reasonable estimates can be 
made of the proportion of police-recorded offenses that could not be 
picked up by the crime survey. Details are given below for each offense
category. 

For 1981 and 1987 available estimates of deflation factors relate to
Central and Southern Scotland. Because no other estimates were available,
these were applied to the recorded crime counts for the whole of Scotland.

Housebreaking

For 1981, 1987, and 1992, the recorded crime totals for housebreaking were
deflated to remove break-ins to commercial properties such as banks, post
offices, shops, and factories. The deflation factors applied were 60% for
1981, 48% for 1987, and 51% for 1992 (from Appendix D of the 1993 crime 
survey report). Disaggregated data were provided for 1995 and 1999. 
These showed that domestic housebreaking accounted for 60% of the total 
in 1995, and for 67% in 1999.

Theft of motor vehicles

The recorded crime statistics have to be deflated to remove thefts of
vehicles belonging to businesses and other organizations. Attempted
thefts were also removed because it is always unclear whether attempts
were aimed at the vehicle or the contents, whereas the offense category
does not include thefts from motor vehicles. The reduction for these two
factors combined was 11% in 1981, 11% for 1987, and 6% in 1992 (from
Appendix D of the 1993 crime survey report). 

For 1995 and 1999 counts for thefts of motor vehicles excluding attempts
were available. On the advice of the Home Department, these counts
were deflated by 6% for 1995, and by 8% for 1999, in order to exclude
thefts of commercial vehicles.

Robbery

Since the crime survey only questions adults age 16 and older, the
recorded crime statistics for robbery were deflated to remove crimes
against victims under the age of 16. On the advice of the Home
Department, the 1995 recorded crime figures were reduced by 17%.
Reference to Appendix 2 of the 1982 Crime Survey showed that the
recorded crime statistics for robbery in 1981 should be reduced by 
12%.***Footnote 9:  This conflicts with Appendix D of the 1993 crime
survey report, which states that the adjustment for 1981 was 19%.  The
reason for the conflict may possibly be that the 12% figure refers to the
whole of Scotland, whereas the 19% figure refers to central and southern
Scotland.  Hence we have preferred the figure of 12%.*** The counts for
1987 and 1992 were deflated by 13% and 15% respectively, following the
estimates given in the 1993 crime survey report. The 1999 count was
deflated by 14% following estimates provided by the Scottish Executive.
All of these estimates are based on statistics compiled in selected police
force areas for a sample of recorded crimes showing the age of the victims.

Assaults

The recorded crime figures on assault (which include attempted murder)
were deflated to remove victims under the age of 16. The adjustment for
1981 was 15% (from Appendix 2 of the 1982 crime survey report).
***Footnote 10:  This differs (for reasons unknown) from the deflation
estimate of 12% for 1981 that is given in Appendix D of the 1993 
report.*** For 1987 the adjustment was 13% (from Appendix 3 of the
1993 crime survey report). On advice from the Home Department, the
recorded crime count was deflated by 16% for 1995 and by 11% for 1999. 
All of these estimates are based on statistics compiled in selected
police force areas for a sample of recorded crimes showing the age of
the victims.

Average number of offenders per offense

A single offense often involves more than one offender. In order to link
statistics on crime incidents with those on convictions, it is necessary 
to estimate the average number of offenders per offense. This makes it
possible, for example, to estimate the probability that a crime survey
offense will lead to a conviction.

Unfortunately the data on the number of offenders per offense are very
unsatisfactory in Scotland. We have not been able to find relevant official
data for the selected offenses, with the exception of homicide.***Footnote
11: Police data, if available, would relate to the number of known
offenders per offense investigated by the police, and not to offenses
generally.  The offenses investigated by the police might well be
atypical.*** The only available source of data is the Scottish Crime
Survey, which asks victims to describe the offender or offenders. In the
case of contact crimes, such as robbery, these questions often produce
useful information, but even then respondents often did not see their
attacker, or all of them, or were too surprised or upset to remember how
many there were. Cases where respondents can confidently state how
many attackers there were may well be atypical, leading to skewed
estimates. In the cases of housebreaking and motor vehicle theft, victims
did not observe the incident in the vast majority of cases, and can
therefore have no idea how many offenders there were. A small proportion 
of victims of housebreaking and motor vehicle theft did answer the 
question on the number of offenders, but they may be atypical, and the
estimates produced may be skewed.

For the four offenses covered by the crime survey (housebreaking, motor
vehicle theft, robbery, and assault) we have used results from three crime
surveys (1992, 1995, and 1999) to calculate the mean number of offenders 
per offense from victims' reports. After aggregating the three surveys, 
the sample sizes on which the estimates are based are as follows:
housebreaking, 138; theft of a motor vehicle, 44; robbery, 73; assault, 
681. These estimates have then been applied to the results for all four 
years covered by the study. In the case of homicide, counts are
published of the number of cases, the number of victims, and the number
of accused, and these have been used to calculate the average number
of offenders per offense over the period 1980-1999, which has then been
applied to all four years covered by the present study.***Footnote 12: 
See Homicides in Scotland in 1999, Edinburgh: Scottish Executive,
2000.*** In the case of rape, no relevant data are published in Scotland.
We have arbitrarily applied the estimate used in this volume for number
of offenders per offense in England, and have applied it to all 4 years.

It is because these estimates are fragile (except for homicide) that they
have been held constant over the 4 years covered. This means that they
do not influence trends over time within Scotland. Also they do not
influence comparisons of trends over time between two countries,
provided that number of offenders per offense was held constant in both
countries. They do of course influence the absolute probabilities for
Scotland, notably the probability that an offender will be convicted. Not
much credence can be given to these probabilities as absolute figures.

Convictions and sentences of custody

The published statistics in Scotland count the number of persons
convicted ("with a charge proved") on a specific court appearance
according to the main offense for which they were convicted.***Footnote
13:  See Criminal Proceedings in Scottish Courts, annual, Edinburgh: 
Scottish Executive.***  There are no formal cautions in Scotland (unlike
England), so that only convictions stand to be considered. Statistics on
the main penalty are included in the same publication.
                                                  
This highlights another major problem with calculating an actual
probability of conviction. The problem is that several crimes or offenses
are often dealt with at the same court appearance; and whether different
crimes or offenses are dealt with at a single appearance, or at several
appearances, may be arbitrary or haphazard. When someone is given
several concurrent sentences, is he being convicted once or several
times? The answers given to that and other related questions, which
appear to be fanciful questions in themselves, nevertheless would have
drastic consequences for the calculation of probabilities of conviction. 
By simply adopting the counting rules used by officialdom, we have just
swept these questions under the carpet.

Because the published statistics do not always identify the precise
categories covered in this study, we have relied on special statistics
provided by the Justice Department of the Scottish Executive.

Length of sentence

The mean length of custodial sentence for each crime category was
provided by the Justice Department. These averages were for persons
sentenced during the year in question. For 1981, 1987, 1992 and 1995,
the mean sentence length for all housebreaking (not domestic
housebreaking) was used. For 1999, the mean sentence length for
domestic housebreaking was provided.

Prison sentences for murder may be either determinate (a specific number 
of years) or indeterminate (a life sentence). A very small number of life
sentences are handed out also for rape. There is a problem in deciding 
what to count as the length of sentence (as opposed to the time actually
served) in the case of an indeterminate life sentence. The general 
approach adopted was to assume that life sentence prisoners serve the 
same proportion of their sentence as those given determinate sentences 
for homicide. The procedure used here was similar to the one described 
by Langan and Farrington (1998). (It was not possible to produce 
estimates for 1981 because basic information was lacking.)
*  For those given a determinate sentence, the average length of the
sentence was provided by the Justice Department (these statistics are
not published).
*  The average time served by those given a determinate sentence was
calculated by the method described below in the section on "average 
time served."
*  For those released after completing life sentences for murder in the
relevant years (1987, 1992, 1995 and 1999) the average time served was
obtained from the Annual Reports of the Parole Board for Scotland.
*  It was notionally assumed that life sentence prisoners served the 
same proportion of their sentence as those given a determinate sentence 
for murder, and on that basis a "length of sentence" for life sentence
prisoners was calculated.
*  Two estimates of average sentence length had now been derived: one
for those with determinate sentences, the other for those with life
sentences. Finally, the weighted average of these two estimates was
calculated, reflecting the numbers in each group.

Average time served

The Justice Department does not collect data on the time served by
prisoners convicted of different offenses. This study therefore 
established as far as possible what proportion of the sentence each 
category of prisoner was legally expected to serve. The relevant legal 
rules changed over the period of the study, and these changes are 
reflected in the estimates. Not all of the data required were available, 
so at several points the calculations are rough approximations.

In the case of homicide, this same method was used to calculate the
average time served by those given determinate sentences. For those
serving life sentences, statistics on time served by those released in 
each relevant year were collected from the annual reports of the Parole 
Board for Scotland. These were used as an estimate of the time to be 
served by those starting life sentences in the same year. 

It should be noted that the method used to estimate sentence length and
time served for homicide is open to many possible objections. For those
sentenced to life imprisonment, the concept of length of sentence is
inherently paradoxical, and the only information on actual time served is
historic: it relates to prisoners currently released, and may not eventually
apply to those currently entering prison. It is so difficult to follow the
logic
of these calculations that it is impossible to imagine that they reflect 
the real expectations of individuals sentenced by the courts.

Findings

Crime trends

As in other developed countries (with the exception of Japan), there was
a substantial rise in recorded crime in Scotland during the "golden era"
of economic growth and prosperity following the Second World War (Smith 
and Young, 1999). Between 1950 and 1980 violent crime rose by a factor 
of 8.7, housebreaking by a factor of 2.9, and theft by a factor of
5.3. These rises were, however, considerably smaller than in neighboring
England. 

In broad terms these rising trends tended to level off after 1980. For
housebreaking and robbery there was little or no rise in the rate of
recorded crime over the period 1981-99, and this was in contrast with the
trends in the previous 30 years. For theft of motor vehicles, there was
little net change in recorded crimes over the period from 1981 to 1999,
but there was a local rise in 1992, followed by a fall back towards the
1981 level. There were, however, continued rises in the rates of recorded
assault, rape, and homicide.***Footnote 14:  There are around 100
homicides a year recorded in Scotland.  Because this number is fairly
small, there are considerable random fluctuations from year to year.  
Only the rates for the selected years are shown in this report, but from 
a closer study of the annual rates, it is clear that there was a gentle 
upward trend over the period 1981-99.***

In the case of assault, most of the statistics shown in this report are 
for all assaults, since crime survey estimates for serious assaults would 
be based on very low sample sizes, and would therefore be unreliable.
However, two charts in figure 1 show the trends in recorded serious and
petty assaults.***Footnote 15: The detailed statistics are given in the
table on page 5. Figures for 1972-88 have been adjusted to allow for a
change in the definition of serious assault from 1989.*** Serious assaults
accounted for about 12% of all assaults both at the beginning and at the
end of the period from 1972 to 1999, although this share rose to about
14% in the late 1980's and early 1990's. Over the period 1981-99 (on
which we focus in this analysis) the rate of increase in serious assaults
and all assaults was almost exactly the same, but the upward trend in
total assaults was more consistent, whereas the trend in serious assaults
was subject to more annual variations. The two trends parted company
in the 1980's and 1990's, as serious assault rose more quickly than total
assaults, but they came together again in the late 1990's as the upward
trend in serious assaults leveled off. 

Confidence limits for the survey-based crime rates are fairly wide, so
that nearly all changes between one survey and the next are probably
non- significant.***Footnote 16: Exact estimates of confidence limits
are not available for all four surveys.*** The survey-based rate of
housebreaking showed a rise between 1981 and 1987, remained level
to 1992, then fell back to its 1981 level in 1995 and 1999. This was
similar to the trend for recorded housebreaking, except that there was
no rise in the recorded count between 1981 and 1987. There was a
broad pattern of decline over the five surveys in the rate of motor
vehicle theft, although this was interrupted by a rise in 1992. The drop
over the whole period between 1981 and 1999 is only on the borderline
of statistical significance. There was no significant change in the
survey-based rates of robbery or assault.  

Reporting to the police and recording by the police

The proportion of incidents that are reported to the police is estimated
from crime survey data, but unfortunately these percentages are based
on fairly small numbers. For example, the prevalence of all violent
victimization in the 1996 survey was about 5%, which means that about
250 survey respondents were victims of violent incidents. Consequently,
the number who were victims of specific attacks, such as robbery or
assault, was still smaller. Although there appear to have been some
changes in the rate of reporting for the four crime categories covered,
these were not statistically significant.***Footnote 17: The detailed 
data needed to carry out exact significance tests are not readily 
available, but it is obvious from the available data that the changes 
were not statistically significant.*** The calculations of the 
proportions of reported incidents that are recorded by the police depend 
on the survey-based estimates of the numbers reported. Although there 
appear to have been some sharp changes, it is unsafe to conclude that 
these really occurred. A particular problem with the findings on theft 
of motor vehicles is that in 1992,1995 and 1999, the police recorded 
more comparable offenses than are estimated from the survey to have 
occurred. If we think of these results as probabilities (p of reporting 
a victim survey offense, p of police recording a reported offense)then 
the product of the two probabilities is the probability that a victim 
survey offense will be recorded by the police. Changes in this overall
probability of incidents being recorded were also inconsistent over the 
period from 1981 to 1999, so that no broad generalization can reasonably 
be made.

Conviction and custody rates per population

The first sequence of charts reflects the rate at which the criminal 
justice system produces convictions and puts people behind bars. The 
numbers of convictions and custodial sentences are shown as rates in 
relation to the population (which in Scotland has almost remained 
constant), so the statistics are not dependent on crime survey 
estimates. 

There was no sustained or substantial rise in convictions for any of 
the six offenses. For housebreaking and motor vehicle theft, there was a
substantial drop in the conviction rate over the period 1981-99, and for
rape there was a decline from 1987 after an earlier rise, so that by 1999
the conviction rate was considerably lower than in 1981. The conviction
rate for assault remained level, whereas for homicide it rose in 1992, 
but then fell back by 1999 to its 1981 level. Robbery was something of an
exception, as the conviction rate rose sharply between 1981 and 1987, but 
then leveled off and later fell back. 

Rates of custody mirrored conviction rates fairly closely, except that 
the decline in convictions for motor vehicle theft was not accompanied 
by a decline in custodial sentences.

Conviction and custody rates per offender

The second sequence of graphs expresses convictions and custodial
sentences as rates in relation to an estimate of the number of offenders.
These estimates of the numbers of offenders are fragile, for reasons
discussed in the earlier section on methods. Except in the case of rape
and homicide, they are survey-based, and therefore subject to substantial
sampling errors; and they depend on estimates of the number of offenders 
per offense that are insecure (but these latter estimates were held 
constant between years). The findings give an indication of the risk
that a person committing an offense on a particular occasion would be
convicted and given a custodial sentence. 

For four of the offenses (housebreaking, vehicle theft, robbery, and
assault)the risks of conviction were low in absolute terms. They ranged
between 2% and 4%, which implies that a person would on average commit 
between 25 and 50 offenses for each conviction. For homicide the risks 
of conviction were high (more than 50% at the beginning of the period), 
and for rape they were middling (17% at the beginning of the period). 
For rape and homicide most convicted offenders received custody, so 
that custody and conviction rates were quite similar. For the other 
offenses the risks of custody were very low.

The most important finding here is that risks of conviction tended if
anything to decline between 1981 and 1999. Some pattern of decline is
evident for housebreaking, theft of motor vehicle, rape, and homicide,
although the declines were not consistent from one survey to the next. 
In particular, the risk of conviction for rape and homicide increased 
in 1992 before declining again in 1995 and 1999. For robbery there was 
an increase in 1987 in the probability of conviction, followed by a 
decline and leveling out, so that from 1995 the level was the same as 
in 1981. For assault the level of risk remained more or less level over 
the period. (The blip in 1995 is well within the range of sampling error.)

For housebreaking, theft of motor vehicle, and assault, changes in the
risk of custody were slight. For robbery there was a short-lived increase
in the risk of custody in 1987 which mirrors the increase in risk of
conviction at that time. For homicide the risk of custody declined 
slightly, mirroring the risk of conviction, with a short-lived increase 
in 1992. For rape the risk of custody declined substantially, mirroring 
the decline in the risk of conviction.

Probability of custody after conviction

Custodial sentences were given in around 80% to 90% of cases with a 
conviction for rape or homicide, and this proportion changed little 
over the period. Custodial sentences as a proportion of convictions rose
substantially for housebreaking and motor vehicle theft over the period,
and there were lesser rises for robbery and assault. The broad picture 
is a decline in the system's production of convictions, but a rise in 
its proportionate use of custody. This rise in the proportionate use 
of custody (as opposed to fines, community service, and other types 
of sentences)was accompanied by some decline in the proportion of the 
custodial sentence actually served. 

Average length of custody and average 
time served

The average length of custodial sentences tended to increase between
1987 and 1999: these statistics are not available for 1981). These
increases were particularly marked for housebreaking and assault, and
for robbery over the period 1987-92. The increased sentences were
offset by the decline in proportion of sentence served so there was 
little or no increase in average time served, depending on the specific
offense.

Days served per conviction

Average time served is an average among those sentenced to custody, 
whereas days served per conviction relates time served to all of 
those convicted of the offense, whether they were sentenced to
custody or not.  Because there was generally an increasing use of
custody, days per conviction rose more than average time served.

Days served per offender

Days served per offender make use of the survey-based estimates of the
number of persons committing an offense on a specific occasion.
***Footnote 18: A different method of estimating the number of
offender-occasions was used in the case of rape and homicide: see
methods section.*** This increased considerably  for house breaking,
motor  vehicle theft, and assault, whereas it declined considerably 
for robbery. It zig-zagged for rape and homicide.

Discussion

The statistics compiled for this study are fragile in a number of ways.
First, police recording practices may have changed in unquantifiable
ways, and there has probably been a tendency for the police to record 
an increasing proportion of crimes reported to them. 

Second, sampling errors associated with survey-based estimates of crime 
rates are large, and the error is increased by the need to adjust the
estimates from the 1982 and 1988 surveys because they covered only
central and southern Scotland. 

Third, estimates of the number of offenders per offense are unreliable,
and there is no good information about any changes over time in this
statistic. 

Fourth, the calculations of time served for all offenses, and sentence
length in the case of homicide, involve a number of dubious assumptions
and approximations. 

Finally, serious conceptual problems mean it is often not clear what is
being counted. For example, statistics on convictions in Scotland count
one offense per case even though several offenses may be adjudicated.
In law the offender may have been "caught" and "punished" with respect
to other offenses decided at the same appearance, but these are not
counted as "convictions" in the statistics. On the other hand, any
"punishment" with respect to these secondary offenses is likely to be
concurrent and subsumed under the punishment for the main offense, so
it is unclear whether the offender has been "caught" or "punished" with
respect to these secondary offenses in any way that makes an impact,
especially if he or she admitted to them voluntarily to avoid the 
possibility of future prosecution.

Bearing in mind these difficulties, a few very simple conclusions can be
drawn from the findings. First, the substantial rises in crime in Scotland
during the golden era between 1950 and 1973 tended to level off after
1980, although this did not apply to the most serious crimes of rape and
homicide. Second, there was no sustained or substantial rise in the
production of convictions for any of the six offenses covered. In fact, 
the chance that an offender would be caught and punished tended to decline
over the period 1981-99, with only minor and short-term exceptions. In
broad terms therefore, rising crime leveled off in Scotland even though
the system was becoming less effective at catching and punishing
offenders. At the same time, Scottish judges tended to make increasing
use of custodial sentences over the period, and there was some increase
in the average length of custodial sentences, partly compensated by a
decline in the proportion of the sentence actually served.

From these findings it could be argued that an increase in the severity 
of sentences, and not in the probability of conviction, caused crime to 
level off. This would be the exact opposite of the argument of Bentham 
and other early deterrence theorists. It would however be an implausible
argument for those offenses (housebreaking, vehicle theft, robbery, and
assault) for which only a minority of offenders are given custodial
sentences in any case.

Instead, the findings are wholly consistent with the theory that the 
leveling off of crime increases in Scotland had no connection with the
effectiveness or punitiveness of the criminal justice system. This 
leaves open the question why crime increases leveled off in Scotland 
some 15 years earlier than in England. To address that question there 
would need to be a detailed comparison of social and economic trends 
in the two countries over the period. Although that detailed work has 
not yet been done, it is likely that absolute levels of unemployment, 
poverty, and income inequality were as high in Scotland as in England, 
and that increases in these indices of deprivation were also similar 
in the two countries. Also, Scotland is known to have high rates of 
alcohol and drug abuse, which are closely related to crime, and rates 
of use of illegal drugs probably rose as fast in Scotland as in England 
over the period from 1980. There is good evidence that crime trends are
associated with changes in the effectiveness of informal social controls
(Smith, 1995; Garland, 2001). It is possible that informal social 
controls survived post-war social and economic transformations better in
Scotland than in England, and this could be associated with Scotland's
distinctive political culture, which emphasizes civic pride and communal
values more than in England.

Since 1971 the system of youth justice in Scotland has been substantially
different from that in England, although the English system is now
becoming more like the Scottish one in some ways. The ideology of the
Scottish system emphasizes the welfare of the child, avoids punishment
and stigmatization, aims to divert young people from formal criminal
process, and involves members of the public rather than professionals 
in decision making. It is possible that the children's hearing system 
in Scotland has helped young people to avoid long-term criminal careers,
where the English system would not have been so successful. However this
remains speculative and unproven, because detailed research on the
effectiveness of the Scottish system has yet to be carried out.

Appendix 1: Calculating sentence length and time served

Sentence length for homicide

The general principles are explained in the text. The actual 
calculations are shown below.

1987

Average length of determinate homicide sentence = 1,615 days

Average proportion of sentence served = 58%

Average time served by those serving life for murder = 3,954 days

Effective length of life sentence for murder = 3,954 /0.58 = 6,817 days

Average length of sentence for homicide 

1,615 x 35 (number of determinate homicide prisoners) = 56,525

6,817 x 24 (number of lifers) = 163,608

(56,525 + 163,608)/(35 + 24) = 3,731 days

1992

Average length of determinate homicide sentence = 2,450 days

Average proportion of sentence served = 58%

Average time served by those serving life for murder = 4,650 days

Effective length of life sentence for murder = 4,650/.58 = 8,017 days

Average length of sentence for homicide

2,450 x 41 (number of determinate homicide prisoners) = 100,450

8,017 x 40 (number of lifers) = 320,680 (100,450 + 320,680)/(41 + 40) =
5,199 days

1995

Average length of determinate homicide sentence = 2,110 days

Average proportion of sentence served = 57%

Average time served by those serving life for murder = 4,745 days

Effective length of life sentence for murder = 4,745/0.57 = 8,325 days

Average length of sentence for homicide 

2,110 x 37 (number of determinate homicide prisoners) = 78,070

8,325 x 45 (number of lifers) = 374,625

(78,070 + 374,625)/(37 + 45) = 5,521 days

1999

Average length of determinate homicide sentence = 1,737 days

Average proportion of sentence served = 55%(estimated from grouped
data)

Average time served by those serving life for murder = 5,049 days

Effective length of life sentence for murder = 5,049/.55 = 9,180 days

Average length of sentence for homicide 

1,737 x 41 (number of determinate homicide prisoners) = 71,217

9,180 x 50 (number of lifers) = 459,000

(71,217 + 459,000)/(41 + 50) = 5,827 days

Average time served

The Home Department does not collect data on the average time served
among prisoners sentenced for different categories of offense. We
therefore had to estimate these averages ourselves. Farrington and
Langan (1998: 58) describe how these averages were calculated with
respect to the American data (the English averages were obtained from
the Home Office). The American approach was to weight the proportion
of the sentence which each category of prisoner was legally expected to
serve by the number of prisoners in that category. Although we attempted
to apply this approach to calculate the Scottish averages, we could not
obtain all of the data required and the proportions we arrived at are only
estimates.
*  The Home Department provided information on the length of sentence
imposed in each crime category, but the department did not have
information on the proportion of prisoners in each category who were
granted parole. Instead we had to rely on information given in the 
reports of the Parole Board for Scotland, which show the proportion of 
parole eligible prisoners who were granted parole in each year. 
Unfortunately, these statistics do not distinguish between offense 
categories, so we had to apply the same rates to all.
 
The following example shows how we estimated the proportion of
sentence served by prisoners convicted of robbery in 1987.
*  All prisoners sentenced to under 18 months in 1987 were released
automatically on remission when they had served two-thirds of their
sentence. Accordingly, the first step was to multiply by 0.66 the 288
prisoners sentenced to under 18 months for robbery.
*  The 157 prisoners sentenced to 18 months or over in 1987 were
eligible for release on parole when they had served a third of their
sentence, and 28% of parole-eligible prisoners were granted parole in
that year. We therefore estimated that 28% of the 157, or 44, would have
been granted parole, whereas the remaining 113 would not. The next
step therefore was to multiply the 44 paroled prisoners by 0.33, as they
would have served just a third of their sentence.
*  The estimated 113 not granted parole would have been released on
remission at the two-thirds stage of their sentence. The next step
therefore is to multiply these 113 prisoners by 0.66.
*  Adding these weighted estimates and dividing by the total number of
prisoners then produces an estimate of the average time served. The
arithmetic is summarized below.

((288 x 0.66) + (44 x 0.33) + (113 x 0.66))/ 445 = 63% of sentence

The estimation method for 1992 was similar to that for 1987 as set out
above. Because the early release provisions changed in 1993, a different
calculation had to be used for those sentenced in 1995 and 1999. From
1993 all prisoners sentenced to under 4 years were released
automatically on remission at half sentence. Prisoners sentenced to 4
years or over were eligible for release on parole at half sentence, but
if refused parole were released at the two-thirds stage. The calculations
were adapted accordingly.
*  It was necessary to make the simplifying assumption that the
proportion of parole-eligible prisoners who were granted parole was the
same for different offense categories, whereas in reality the proportion
may vary considerably between offense categories. However, this will
have only a marginal effect on the estimates. This is because early
release is mostly determined by fixed rules rather than by the Parole
Board's exercise of discretion. This can be demonstrated by making the
limiting assumptions that all parole-eligible prisoners, or none, were
granted parole. The estimate of the proportion of sentence served varies
by only around two percentage points depending on which of these
limiting assumptions is adopted.
*  It was not possible to produce estimates of time served for 1981
because the Home Department could not provide the relevant data.

Homicide

Although some prisoners convicted of culpable homicide receive
determinate prison sentences, all prisoners convicted of murder receive
a mandatory life sentence. The average time served by prisoners serving
determinate sentences for homicide was estimated using the same
procedure outlined above. For those released after completing life
sentences for murder in the relevant years (1987, 1992, 1995, and 1999)
the average time served was obtained from the Annual Reports of the
Parole Board for Scotland. The weighted average of the two estimates
was then calculated. The arithmetic is shown below.

1987

Estimate of proportion of sentence served by determinate homicide
prisoners

Sentenced to under 18 months: 6 x .66 (one-third automatic remission)

Sentenced to over 18 months: 50, of which an estimated 14 granted
parole

14 x .33 (two-thirds remission)

36 x .66 (one-third remission)

((6 x 0.66) +(14 x 0.33) + (36 x 0.66))/56 = 58% of sentence served
 
Estimate of time served for all 

0.58 x 1,615 (average determinate sentence length for homicide) = 936.7
936.7 x 35 (number prisoners given determinate sentence for homicide)
= 32,785

3,954 (average time served by exiting lifers 1987) x 24 (number of 
lifers sentenced in 1987) = 94,896

(32,785 + 94,896)/59 = 2,164 days

1992

Estimate of proportion of sentence served by determinate homicide
prisoners

Number of determinate sentences for homicide: 41

Across all offense types 25% of those eligible for consideration for 
parole in 1992 were granted parole, and the earliest these could be 
released was at the one-third point

Estimate for those granted parole is therefore 41 x .25 x .33 = 3.4

Those not granted parole would be released at the two-thirds point if 
not before

So the estimate for those not granted parole is 41 x .75 x .667 = 20.5

% of sentence served for those given determinate sentences was
therefore (3.4 + 20.5)/41 = 58%

[Note: the estimation method used for 1992 was cruder than for 1987,
because of a lack of data, but the result was the same.]

Estimate of time served for all

.58 x 2,450 (average determinate sentence length for homicide) = 1,421

1,421 x 41 (number of determinate sentences for homicide) = 58,261

4,650 (average time served by exiting lifers 1992) x 40 (number of 
lifers sentenced in 1992) = 186,000

(58,261 + 186,000)/81 = 3,016 days

1995

Estimate of proportion of sentence served by determinate homicide
prisoners

Number of determinate sentences for homicide: 51

Sentenced to under 4 years: 24

24 x .5 (one-half automatic remission)

Sentenced to over 4 years: 27, of which an estimated 30%, or 8, granted
parole

8 (granted parole) x .5 (half remission)19 (not granted parole) x .66
(one-third remission)

(24 x .5) + (8 x .5) + 19 x .667)/ 51 = 57% of sentence served

Estimate of time served by all

0.57 x 2,110 (average determinate sentence length for homicide) =
1,202.7

1,202.7 x 37 (number of determinate sentences for homicide) = 44,500

4,745 (average time served by exiting lifers 1995) x 45 (number lifers
sentenced in 1995) = 213,525

(44,500 + 213,525) /82 = 3,147 days

1999

Estimate of proportion of sentence served by determinate homicide
prisoners

Number of determinate sentences for homicide: 41

Sentenced to under 4 years: 14 14 x .5 (one-half automatic remission)

Sentenced to over 4 years: 27, of which an estimated 50.2%, or 13.56,
granted parole

13.56 (granted parole) x .5 (half remission)

13.44 (not granted parole) x .667 (one-third remission)

((14 x .5) + (13.56 x .5) + (13.44 x .667)/41 = 55% of sentence served

Estimate of time served by all .57 x 1,737 (average determinate sentence
length for homicide) = 990.1

990.1 x 41 (number of determinate sentences for homicide) = 40,594.1

5,049 (average time served by exiting lifers 1999) x 50 (number of 
lifers sentenced in 1999) = 252,450

(40,594.1 + 252,450)/91 = 3,220 days

(Note: marginally different from 3,205 shown in the table, due to 
rounding errors)

References

Anderson, S. and S. Leitch. (1996) Main findings from the 1993 Scottish
Crime Survey. Edinburgh: The Scottish Office Central Research Unit.

Chambers, G. and J. Tombs, eds. (1984) The British crime survey
Scotland. Edinburgh: HMSO, Scottish Office Central Research Unit.

Garland, D. (2001) The Culture of Control: Crime and Social Order in
Contemporary Society. Oxford: Oxford University Press.

General Register Office for Scotland. (2002) Historic population
estimates at <http://www.gro-scotland.gov.uk/grosweb.nsf/pages/popest>

Kinsey, R. and S. Anderson. (1992) Crime and the quality of life: Public
perceptions and experiences of crime in Scotland: Findings from the
1988 British Crime Survey. Edinburgh: Scottish Office Central Research
Unit.

Langan, P.A. and D.P. Farrington. (1998) Crime and justice in the United
States and in England and Wales, 1981-96. Washington: US Department
of Justice.

MVA. (1998) Main findings from the 1996 Scottish Crime Survey.
Edinburgh: The Scottish Office Central Research Unit.

MVA. (2000) The 2000 Scottish Crime Survey: First Results. Edinburgh:
Scottish Executive Central Research Unit.

Scottish Executive. (2000) Criminal Proceedings in Scottish Courts 1999.
Edinburgh: Scottish Executive Publications.

Scottish Office. (Annual) Statistical Bulletin: Criminal Justice Series:
Recorded crime in Scotland. Edinburgh: The Scottish Office.

Smith, D.J. (1999) "Less crime without more punishment." Edinburgh
Law Review 3: 294-316.

Smith, D.J. and A. Brown. (Forthcoming). Trends in Crime and
Punishment in Scotland, England and the United States, 1981-1999.
Edinburgh: Scottish Executive Central Research Unit.

Smith, D.J. and P.J. Young. (1999) "Crime trends in Scotland since
1950." In P. Duff and N. Hutton (eds.), Criminal Justice in Scotland, 
1-13. Aldershot: Dartmouth.

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and England and Wales. Home Office Research and Planning Unit Paper
17. London: Home Office.

Young, P.J. (1997) Crime and Criminal Justice in Scotland. Edinburgh:
The Stationery Office.

Author

David J. Smith is Professor of Criminology at the University of Edinburgh
and Visiting Professor at the London School of Economics. He has
carried out inter-disciplinary research in a variety of fields, including
inequality (especially related to ethnic and religious groups), policing,
crime trends, criminal process, child and adolescent development, and
school effectiveness. Among his books are Racial Disadvantage in Britain
(Penguin, 1977), Police and People in London (PSI, 4 vols,1983), The 
School Effect (PSI, 1989), Racial Justice at Work (PSI, 1989), Inequality 
in Northern Ireland (Oxford University Press, 1991), Democracy and Policing
(PSI, 1994), and (with Sir Michael Rutter), Psychosocial Disorders in Young
People: Time Trends and Their Causes (Wiley, 1995). With Lesley McAra, he
directs the Edinburgh Study of Youth Transitions and crime, a longitudinal
study of 4,300 young people in the City of Edinburgh. David Smith has been
Specialist Adviser to two committees of the House of Commons. He is founding
editor of the European Journal of Criminology which started publication in
January 2004.

Sweden

Sweden is one of the Scandinavian countries located in Northern
Europe. The population of Sweden in 2001 was about 9 million
inhabitants. The land area of Sweden is roughly twice as big as 
that of the United Kingdom. Sweden is a constitutional monarchy with 
a parliamentary form of government. Sweden's head of state, the King,
has only ceremonial functions. Parliament must approve all national
taxes, annual budgets and legislation. The decision-making powers of
the parliament are without limitation, beyond those based on specific
rules in the Constitution, such as protection of free speech, the ban 
on capital punishment, and the independence of the court and State 
civil service in enforcing laws.

Post Second World-War social trends in Sweden, with particular
emphasis on changes during 198098

An emerging welfare state   After the Second World War Swedish
social policy headed toward a welfare state. (For a overview see
Olsson, 1993, especially chapter 3.) The goal was a more egalitarian
society. The trend was one of almost truncating the low end of the
income distribution and diminishing age inequalities and, somewhat
later, gender inequalities. For example, compulsory earnings-related
insurance for sickness compensation was introduced in 1955. Hospital
care became free, poly-clinical treatment took a nominal fee, and
private doctors' fees were strongly subsidized. 

Education went through almost uninterrupted reform from an elitist-type 
to a more egalitarian system with few private schools. From the early 
1970's subsidized municipal day-care centers were built. The 1974 
parental insurance system gave a year of paid leave for child care. A 
housing policy was introduced to relieve traditional overcrowding and
generally to improve housing conditions. Rents were kept low. Extensive
construction was supported by loans and interest subsidies and the
establishing of nonprofit housing organizations (Janson and Wikstrm, 
1995). All in all, in the late 1970's and early 1980's Sweden was 
probably the prime example of a welfare state society. However, in the 
1990's there were an increased inequality and a decline in welfare,
particularly for selected social groups.

Decreased welfare in the 1990's  Since 1975 Statistics Sweden has
carried out special surveys on social trends (SCB, 1996). The overall
finding for the period 1975 to 1995 is one of improvement in the late
1970's and the 1980's but a significant decline in living conditions 
in the 1990's, particularly for youth, immigrants, and single parents.

The difference between the wealthiest and the poorest increased
during the 1990's. The percentage classified as poor declined in the
1980's to 3% and then increased to 7% in the 1990's. The need for
social welfare assistance has increased. In 1980, 4.1% of the
population got some form of social welfare assistance during the year,
in 1998 the same applied to 7.7% of all inhabitants. At the same time,
the social welfare provisions became less generous. 

Demographic changes  During the last 20 years the population increased 
from 8.3 million in 1980 to 8.9 in 1999. In 1980, 82.7% of the
population was living in urban localities, and in 1995, 83.9%. The
percentage of youth age 14 to 24 decreased from 15.1% in 1980 to
12.8% of the total population in 1999. 

Immigration  Although Sweden had been a country of immigration since
the Second World War, its population remained fairly homogeneous until
the early 1970's (Martens, 1997). Early immigration (up the 1970's) was
mainly from other Scandinavian or European countries (often coming as
labor recruits), while later immigration had an increasing proportion 
of immigrants from non-European and developing countries (in many cases
coming as refugees from areas of civil wars), although crises, such as
the one in the former Yugoslavia, meant an increased immigration from
Europe in the late 1990's. The percentage of foreign-born residents
increased from 7.5% in 1980 to 11.1% in 1999. In addition, there is a
significant group of second-generation immigrants (born in Sweden with
at least one parent born in a foreign country); in 1994 they were 8.5% 
of the population (Martens, 1997, p. 187).

Unemployment  Sweden had low rates of unemployment in the post-Second 
World War period. However, in the 1990's the unemployment rate reached 
a level not seen in Sweden after the 1930's. Unemployment increased 
from 2% of the workforce in 1980 to close to 8% in the period 1993-97 
and thereafter declined to 6.5% in 1998.  

Residential segregation  Studies of Sweden's three major urban areas
show an increased residential (economic, social, and ethnic)
segregation during the 1990's (SOU 1998:25). There are clear
indications of an increased neighborhood concentration of disadvantaged. 
The initially worse off areas have become even more worse off compared 
to the better ones.  

Alcohol and drugs  Sweden had a strong temperance movement that kept 
much of its political influence even after its membership began to
dwindle in the 1950's. Alcohol policy is still restrictive (Bruun and
Frnberg, 1985). For example, strong beer, wine, and liqueur can only
be sold in special state-owned shops. However, in the 1990's the
alcohol policy has started to be somewhat more relaxed. Sweden has
traditionally been a strong-liquor and beer country, although more
recently more "continental" drinking patterns have emerged. In the 
last 20 years, the consumption of beer and wine has increased 30% and
the quantity of hard liqueur has decreased 50%. The gross consumption 
of alcohol has not increased in the last 20 years. The level of alcohol
consumed per inhabitant is about the same today as in 1980. However, a 
larger fraction of alcohol is sold by restaurants; in 1985, 9% of 
alcoholic beverages was sold in restaurants, but in 1998, 20%.

This coincides with research showing an increasing participation in
public entertainment life (going to pubs, clubs, and restaurants). The
development for youth shows a different pattern. The percentage of
juveniles (age 15) who say they have used alcohol has increased over
the last 20 years to 60%. Juvenile high-level consumers have also
increased in number: in 1980, 7% of the 15 year-old boys got drunk at
least once a week, and in 1998, 12%. A survey of boys age 17 to 18
reveal a similar pattern; the percentage who reported to have been
drunk in the last week has increased from 10% in 1980 to 17% in
1998. (For an overview of alcohol trends, see CAN, 1999.) 

In a European perspective, Swedish drug policy is very restrictive. In
the 1950's drug use was mainly confined to bohemian groups and then
spread into groups of delinquents. It was first in the 1960's that drug
use (mainly cannabis smoking) spread to the "conventional" youth
population (Torstensson 1987, Hibell 1993). In 1980, 18% of 17- to-18
year-old boys reported that they had tried some form of illegal drug. 
In 1998 the same percentage reported to have tried drugs. However, the
per-centage decreased to some 5% from 1985 to 1990. International
comparisons show that the prevalence of drug use among Swedish
youth is low compared to many other countries: for example, the
United States, Australia, and the United Kingdom.(Eisner, in 
press).

However, the number of heavy drug users has increased from
approximately 12,000 in 1979 to 17,000 in 1992. Since 1993 there
have been no survey-based estimates of heavy drug users covering
the country as a whole, but surveys made in the three largest cities 
in the country suggest a substantial increase in heavy drug use. For
example, in Stockholm the increase is estimated to 19% and in Malm
to 28%. Death by drug-related causes has doubled since 1980 and
drug-related poisoning has also increased from 70 persons in 1980 to
250 persons in 1996. (For an overview of drug trends, see CAN, 1999). 

The Swedish criminal justice system.
 
The Swedish legal system today is basically accusatorial with a
prosecutor representing the state and a defense attorney representing
the defendant. Primary responsibility for the enforcement of legal 
rules devolves upon the courts and the various administrative 
authorities. The general courts enforce civil-law and criminal-law
legislation. However, the majority of crimes and offenses (in 
particular traffic offenses) are sanctioned by policemen or prosecutors 
in the form of summary fines. 

Swedish legislation is based on a strong domestic tradition of Germanic 
law, but it has also been influenced by foreign law. Swedish law is 
based to a considerably extent on written law, while case law plays a 
smaller though important role. The first penal law in Sweden came in 
1734. This penal law was replaced in 1864 with another that in turn 
was replaced by a new penal law in 1965. 

The Swedish Penal Code does not differentiate between crimes and
infractions. The age of criminal responsibility is 15. Only if 
there are special grounds can an offender below age 18 be sentenced 
to imprisonment. Imprisonment of offenders below the age of 18 is
uncommon. For offenders between ages 18 and 21, courts may sentence 
the offender to imprisonment only if there are special grounds 
according to culpability or other special reasons.

The basic prosecutorial and judicial process can be described in the
following stages. If there are reasons to believe that a criminal offense
under public prosecution has been committed, a pre-trial investigation
should be initiated to find out who is reasonably suspected of the crime
and if there are sufficient grounds to prosecute him or her. The police
or the public prosecutor initiate the pre-trial investigation. Normally 
the police carry out the pre-trial investigation, but as soon as someone 
is reasonably suspected for the crime, the prosecutor takes the lead. 
The prosecutor may decide on special measures before the case comes to
court -- for example, that the social services should deal with the case.
In cases where the suspect may be assumed to be mentally disturbed,
the court decides whether he should undergo examination by a forensic
psychiatrist. If the examination reveals mental disorder, the court may 
choose to sentence the defendant to psychiatric treatment, with or 
without special consideration of discharge. Children and young people, 
addicts and mentally disturbed perpetrators may be handed over for 
special treatment.

When the pre-trial investigation has been completed, the public
prosecutor decides whether to press charges. It is the prosecutor's
duty to prosecute everyone who is reasonably suspected of having
committed a crime when the prosecutor's judgment is that there is
enough evidence to expect the court to find the suspect guilty.
However, in practice exceptions will be made, especially for young 
offenders. In these cases, before a waiver of prosecution, the 
prosecutor is normally required to get in touch with the social 
welfare authorities and see to that appropriate action will be taken. 
Also for less serious offenses the prosecutor may decide, if the 
offender agrees to this, that the case will be resolved by a summary 
fine and not taken to trial.
 
Sweden has a three-tier hierarchy of general courts: the district 
courts, the courts of appeal, and the supreme Court. In court it is 
the task of the prosecutor to prove that the accused is guilty. The 
accused does not need to prove that he or she is innocent. There is 
no plea bargaining. The accused cannot plead guilty to a lesser 
offense.

There are no jury trials. The Criminal Code lists the punishments 
and other sanctions a court may prescribe in a sentence. The term
"punishment" refers to fines and imprisonment, and the term "other
consequences" refers mainly to suspended sentences, probation, or
special treatment.
  
Swedish crime statistics

The classification of crime in the official crime statistics is primarily
based on the legal crime definitions given in the Penal Code. However,
in addition, the main legal categories of crime may be divided into
subcategories. These divisions are not systematic. They have evolved
over a long period in response to pragmatic concerns.

Typically some information not available in the statistics has been
requested in response to a current issue or problem (such as the
extent of domestic violence) and then added. To give a few examples:
burglaries that normally fall under the legal category "grand theft" 
are divided in great detail according to places burglarized; assaults 
are divided by whether they occurred in-or outdoors and whether the
victim and offender knew each other; while robberies, among other
things, are divided by weapon use. 

The annual figures include all cases reported to the police during the
year. However, the figures also include a smaller number of cases that
were committed in prior years but reported during the year in question.

The general rule is that attempts are counted in the same way as
completed offenses. The exceptions are homicide, rape, and theft of
motor vehicle for which attempts are distinguished from completed
cases. In this study we do not include attempts for homicide and theft
of a motor vehicle, but we do include attempts of rape. The reason is
that it is not possible for all of the studied years to single out 
attempts.

Counting of crime  

In principle the Swedish crime statistics -- 
(i) count all crimes reported to the police, whether they turn out to 
be crime or not after investigation, 
(ii) that the general rule of counting is that every single crime event 
in a reported series should be counted (that is, a female reports she 
has been assaulted 10 times during the last year by her husband should 
count as 10 crimes of assault), and 
(iii) that the general rule is that all crimes in a single event 
should be counted (thus, a person shoplifts, breaks a window when 
the shopkeeper tries to intervene, and resists arrest when the police
arrives, should be counted as three separate crimes although they are
part of the same  chain of events). 

This means that if one, without adjustments, compares the Swedish
crime statistics with those of countries where crimes are counted
differently, the Swedish crime figure will be overestimated. For
example, in the Netherlands crimes are entered into the statistics after
the investigation is completed, a reported series of crimes is counted
only as one, and only the most serious crime in an event is counted. 
In general, Sweden has, compared to most other European countries,
"generous" rules for the counting of crime (Sonefors, 1999). To
increase comparability, we have deducted from the presented figures
the recorded crimes cleared as "no crime." Generally 2%-3% of all
cases cleared-up are considered "no crime." However, in some special
categories, such as homicide, clearance due to "no crime" are much
more common. Analysis of homicide records has shown that during
some years as much as 50% of all reported homicides  could be accidents,
suicide or other misclassified crimes. (See further below the section on
homicide.)

A cleared offense does not necessarily mean that a person is convicted 
of the crime, but that the police has reached a decision on the case. 
This includes decisions such as that the reported case is not considered 
an offense (no crime), that the offender is below the age of criminal
responsibility (age 15), or that the crime is barred by limitations. The 
most common grounds for a case to be considered cleared is that an 
offender is prosecuted, a summary fine is issued, a waiver of prosecution 
is issued, or if the offense is considered so minor that there will be no
prosecution. However, in some cases the crime could also be considered 
cleared if the suspected offender is proven innocent of the crime, 
regardless if the offense is left without an suspected offender.

Changes in statistical procedures 

The statistical procedures have been changed during the 1980's and
1990's. In the early 1990's the computer based recording system
(RAR)was introduced in the police forces. At the same time the police
force started a reorganization. It is a generally held view that this 
may have affected the figures of recorded crimes by increasing the 
number of data entry errors.    

Another major change was made in 1996 when the National Council for 
Crime Prevention assumed from Statistics Sweden the production of 
the official crime statistics. Some procedures were changed when
new computer systems were introduced. There has been no strict
evaluation of the size of the effect of these two changes, but it 
cannot be ruled out that they have had some effect on recorded crimes.
However, it has been estimated that the net effect of the change in
procedures generally has been small. When the Crime Prevention Council 
took responsibility for the statistics, they ran the old and new
systems in parallel for a couple of months to check differences (BR
1998). However, a main exception appears to be statistics for completed
homicide. (See below the section on homicide.)

As of 1 January 1997 it became possible to delay the coding of crime
type, if there is any doubt whether a crime has been committed. Before
1997 the crime was coded as it was known at the time of reporting.
The possibility was primarily introduced to limit the number of cases of
suicide, accidents, and overdoses of drugs that were categorized as
completed homicide. The figures for the last 2 years of the series 
may therefore lack some comparability with previous years, particularly 
as regards completed homicides.

Offenders

The unit "offender" refers only to those cases in which there is a
suspect and a prosecutor has made the decision that it is likely he/she
will press charges. This does not include offenders under 15 years of
age (the age of legal responsibility). These offenders are always
handled by the social authorities. The figure for offenders include all
times during a year a person has been connected to a crime. This
means that the same person is counted more than once if he/she appears 
more than once as an offender (as defined above) during the year. If 
several persons are suspected for one crime and the prosecutor decides 
it is likely he/she will press charges, each will be counted as an 
offender.

Convictions

The statistical unit for convictions is the number of court appearances.
As with the offender unit, this means that a person may be counted
more than once if he/she is convicted, given a summary fine, or has a
waiver of prosecution more than once during the year. If two or more
persons are convicted at the same time, as participants in the same
offense, they all count independently. The statistic refers to 
convictions in district courts. It does not include changes made by the 
Court of Appeal or the High Court. For example, in 1997 a total of more 
than 6,000 criminal cases was tried by the court of appeal, in 30% of 
the cases the court changed the penalty (BR, 1998b). Given that the 
total number of convictions in 1997 was 54,145, the appeals are generally
not likely to have a major impact on the presented data (about 3 % of
all convictions were changed).
 
The statistic for convictions is based on principal crime (most serious
crime) and principal penalty. This means that a conviction can include
several other crimes than the one counted as the principal crime. This
is not likely to be a problem as regards the number of convictions for
crimes such as homicide. However, for less serious crimes, such as
theft of vehicles, the number of convictions for these crimes are likely
to be underestimated. 

Custody

As with court statistics, the statistic of number of persons sentenced 
to prison is based on the principal crime and the principal sanction. 
The gross number of persons convicted to custody is probably not much
affected by this. However, because of this principle, a prison sentence
can include a number of different crimes. Changes in the sentence length, 
or in the fraction of persons sentenced to prison, could be an effect of
changes in the average number of crimes included in convictions. For 
example, Ahlberg and Dolmn (1992) have shown that the increase in the 
number of persons sent to custody from 1975 to 1990 to a large extent is 
the effect of a increasing number of crimes included in the convictions. 
The average time served is estimated from the sentence length (as 
convicted) and the expected length to be served in prison. The latter is
estimated from the parole regulations. No exact information on the actual 
time spent in prison is available for the specific crime for the studied 
time period. 

Special notes on included crime categories

Homicide

This category includes only completed murder, manslaughter, and
infanticide. For this study attempted cases are not included (they 
are included in the category of assault), and crime cleared as "no 
crime" has been deducted from the figures. Even so, the presented 
figures of completed homicides are likely to overestimate the real 
numbers, sometimes significantly (see below).

The legal definition of homicides (murder and manslaughter) are as
follows:

"A person who takes the life of another shall be sentenced for murder
to imprisonment for ten years or for life."

"If, in the view of the circumstances that led to the act or for other
reasons, the crime referred to in section one (murder)is considered to
be less serious, imprisonment for manslaughter shall be imposed for
at least six and at most ten years."

The Swedish Penal Code (Ds 1999:36).
 
It is likely that homicide was a category of crime that was significantly
affected by the changes in statistical procedures in the 1990's, 
particularly as regards error of data entry. A special study of all
homicides recorded in Sweden during the period 1990 to 1996 showed
that a high proportion of the cases recorded as completed homicides
in fact were not (Rying, 2000). For example, the cases where it was
clear that no homicide had been committed varied from 30% to 51% of
the recorded cases during the studied period. It should be noted that
even when we have deducted crimes that were cleared as "no crime"
still our figures are between 33% and 87% higher than those when all
cases found not to be a completed homicide have been deducted.
Since no comparable data on recording of homicides are available for
the 1980's or other years in 1990 we have not been able to adjust for
this.

Assault

The category assault includes aggravated assault, assault, and attempted
homicide. It should be noted that some forms of minor assaults (like 
pushings) generally are treated as crime of molestation and this category 
is not included.

The legal definition of assault is as follows:

"A person who inflicts bodily injury, illness or pain upon another or
renders him or her powerless or in a similar helpless state, shall be
sentenced for assault to imprisonment for at most two years or, if the
crime is petty, to a fine or imprisonment for at most six months"
 
"If the crime referred to in section 5 (assault) is considered gross, the
sentence for gross assault shall be imprisonment for at least one and
at most ten years. In assessing if the crime is gross special consideration
shall be given to whether the act constituted mortal danger or whether the
offender inflicted grievously bodily harm ore severe illness or otherwise
displayed particular ruthlessness and brutality."

The Swedish Penal Code (Ds 1999:36).

A change in the Penal Code in 1982 meant that it was no longer the
victim's decision whether or not to report minor assaults occurring 
in private space. This change has been estimated to result in some
increase in the level of recorded assaults. However, it only affects
comparisons of the first 2 years of the series with the rest and 
should have no strong impact on the overall trend.

Rape

The rape category includes both completed and attempted rapes. The
reason for this is that it is only in recent years it have been 
possible to separate the completed crimes from others in the criminal
statistics. 

The legal definition of rape is as follows:
 
"A person who by violence or threat which involves, or appears to the
threatened person to involve an imminent danger, forces another
person to have sexual intercourse or to engage in a comparable sexual 
act, that having regard to the nature of the violation and the
circumstances in general, is comparable to enforced sexual intercourse, 
shall be sentenced for rape to imprisonment for at least two and 
at most six years. Causing helplessness or a similar state of 
incapacitation shall be regarded equivalent to violence"

"If having regard to the nature of the violence or the threat and the
circumstances in general , the crime is considered less serious, a
sentence to imprisonment for at most four years shall be imposed."

"If the crime is gross, a sentence to imprisonment for at least four and
at most ten years shall be imposed for gross rape. In assessing whether 
the crime is gross, special consideration shall be given to whether the
violence a danger to life or whether the perpetrator caused serious 
injury or serious illness or, having regard to the method used or the 
victim's youth or other circumstances, exhibited ruthlessness or 
brutality."

The Swedish Penal Code (Ds 1999:36).

In 1984 the penal law was changed to be gender neutral, allowing both
males and females to be offenders and victims of rape. In practice,
however, very few females are recorded as rape offenders, and very
few males are recorded as rape victims. In mid 1987 the rape law was
changed so that vaginal penetration was no longer required for a case
to be a rape. The impact of the latter on the figures of rape has not
been estimated. 

Residential burglary

This category includes burglaries in residences (both burglaries of
permanent homes and holiday homes are included). However, burglaries 
in attics/basements or in other areas adjacent to dwellings are not 
included. There is no special legal category in Sweden for burglary. 
Burglary is generally regarded as crimes of "grand theft". However, 
it was first in 1988 that the law stated that "intrusion into a
dwelling" would qualify residential burglaries as "grand theft," and 
it is reasonable to assume that most residential burglaries after that 
was convicted as grand theft. 

Before 1988, the proportion residential burglaries convicted as grand
theft as opposed to theft is unknown. This situation makes comparisons 
of conviction data between the two periods (1980-87, 1988-98) less
straightforward, although it is likely that a fair proportion of the
residential burglaries also before 1988 were convicted as grand theft. 
Theft of vehicles is a special legal category and hence is not 
included under the legal category of theft (see below).

The legal definitions (as of 1988) of theft and grand theft are as
follows:

"A person who unlawfully takes what belongs to another with intent to
acquire it, shall, if the appropriation involve loss, be sentenced for 
theft to imprisonment for at most two years"

"If the crime under section 1 (theft) is considered to be gross,
imprisonment for at least six months and at most six years shall be
imposed for grand theft. In assessing whether the theft is gross,
special consideration shall be given to whether the unlawful
appropriation took place after intrusion into a dwelling, whether it
concerned appropriation of property borne by a person, whether the
accused was equipped with a weapon, explosive or similar aid, or
whether the act was otherwise of an especially dangerous or ruthless
nature, concerned property of considerable value or entailed a keenly
felt loss."

The Swedish Penal Code (Ds 1999:36).

Theft of motor vehicles

This category include completed theft of cars, busses, and trucks. 
It also includes thefts and attempted thefts of motorcycles and 
mopeds. It has not been possible to exclude attempts for motorcycles 
and mopeds. However, this category predominantly includes completed
thefts of cars.

The legal definition of vehicle theft is as follows: 

"A person who unlawfully takes or uses a motor vehicle or other motor-
driven conveyance belonging to another, shall, unless the crime is 
punishable under the previous provisions of this Chapter, be sentenced 
for vehicle theft to imprisonment for at most two years or, if the 
crime is petty, to a fine."

The Swedish Penal Code (Ds 1999:36).

No changes in the law, or changes in statistical procedures, that may
have affected this category of crime has been made over the studied
period.

Robbery

This category includes all cases of robbery, against person or against
shops or banks.

The legal definition of robbery is as follows:

"If a person steals from another by means of violence or by threat
implying or appearing to the threatened person to imply an imminent
danger, or who, after committing a theft and being caught in the act,
resists by such violence or threat a person who attempts to recover the
stolen property, imprisonment for at least one and at most six years
shall be imposed for robbery. The same shall apply to a person who by
such violence or threat forces another to commit or omit to commit
some act so that gain results to the accused and loss to the person 
so forced or to someone he represents. Causing helplessness or a
similar state of incapacitation shall be regarded as equivalent to
violence."

"If the crime under Section 5 (robbery) is regarded as gross,
imprisonment for at least four and at most ten years shall be imposed
for gross robbery. In assessing whether the crime is gross, special
consideration shall be given to whether the violence was dangerous to
life or whether the accused caused serious bodily injury or a severe
illness or otherwise exhibited considerable brutality or ruthlessly to
advantage of the victim's defencelessness or exposed situation."

The great majority, some 90%, of robberies are crimes against a person. 
It is possible to separate robbery against a person from other robbery 
when it comes to recorded crimes.

However, this is not possible for convicted persons, where only the
categories of robbery or aggravated (gross) robbery are used. Bank
robbery has a much higher clearance rate than other robberies, and in
the case of conviction, a higher penalty than other robberies. This
means that recorded robberies to a large extent are robbery against
the person while convictions for robbery have a higher proportion of
bank robbers (receiving more stiff penalties).

Victim survey data

There are no special annual victim-surveys in Sweden. However, an
annual survey of living conditions has been carried out for the last
20-odd years. Every year this survey includes basic questions on
victimization, and at selected years there is an in-depth battery of
victimization questions (in-depth victimization question has been
included in the 1978, 1984/1985, and 1992/1993 surveys).

The survey is based on a sample of permanent residents of Sweden
who are older than 16 years. The upper age limit has been altered
during the 20 years. However, in this study the calculations are 
based on the sample of residents age 16 to 74 years. The net sample 
size has also varied between years ranging from 7,000 to 12,000. The
percentage non responses has increased over the studied period,
from 14 % in 1980 to close to 20 % in the last years. The non
response rate is slightly higher in the more urbanized regions of 
the country, where the levels of crime usually are higher.

To estimate the total number of crimes in the population, the number
of crimes reported by the respondents has been weighted in relation to
the population and response rates (SCB, 1996). To reduce the effect
of extreme values because of a small number of respondents with an
extremely high frequency of victimization, the upper limit is set to 
six offenses in a year (SCB, 1997). The estimated number of crimes in
the population has also been smoothed by using a 3-year moving average.

The survey covers only a limited number of crimes; assault, residential
burglary and theft of vehicles. The questions on assault may include
rape and robbery since these are not specifically excluded from the
assault (that is, subjects are only asked if they were subjected to
violence and not if the violence was in connection with a robbery or
rape). Theft may include cases of vandalism only since the question
ask about whether the subject have had any property stolen or
vandalized. The survey data are therefore not directly compatible with
data on recorded crimes. However, it can safely be assumed that the
great majority of cases reported as assaults are assaults (and not
rapes or robberies), and that the theft category predominantly 
includes cases of theft (and not pure acts of vandalism).

A special problem with victim-surveys is that they predominantly target
"conventional" populations and therefore are likely to under-represent
criminality in more criminal populations. 

Findings

Crime trends  In general, violent crime increased over the study period.
This held for homicide, assault , robbery and rape, and in the case of
assault, where survey data are available, both for data on recorded 
assaults and survey data. As previously noted, the homicide figures
significantly overestimate the actual rate. However, a comparison for 
the period 1990 to 1996, when fully corrected data are available, 
indicates that this does not affect the trends very much. Also vehicle 
theft showed an overall increase over the period, although there was a
significant dip in the mid-1990's. The picture from data on recorded 
crimes and survey data is consistent. Of the studied types of crime,
residential burglary is the one that shows most deviation from the 
general pattern. There is a weak trend of decrease. However, the
rate tends to fluctuate in cycles. The data on recorded crimes and
survey data are consistent since the late 1980 when the trends closely
follow each other. However, in the first half of the 1980's the trends 
are almost opposites.

Clearance rates   Violent crimes generally have a higher clearance
rate than property crimes. The lowest clearance rate for violent crime
is when the crime has an element of gain (robbery). The clearance
rates for  all categories of studied crime have declined over 
the study period. This held for both violent crimes and property crimes.
The annual decrease in clearance rate for violent crimes has been
highest for homicide and assault (- 1.0 %) and least for robbery (-0.6
%). In the case of the property crimes the clearance rate for vehicle
theft has decreased more (- 0.8 %) than for residential burglary (- 0.4
%).
  
For most crimes there is a clear relationship between an increase in
the rate of crime and a decrease in clearance rate. The main
exception is residential burglary. As previously reported, and in
contrast to other studied categories of crime, the rate of residential
burglaries showed a weak decline (while the clearance rate also
declined). 
 
Reporting of crime   While one can assume that most completed
homicides are reported to and recorded by the police (although the
quality of the recordings may vary as earlier shown), this does not 
hold for the other studied crime categories. Estimates of reporting 
have been made for assault, residential burglary, and vehicle theft.
However, these estimates are trend extrapolations based on three
points in time. Only in the more in-depth survey studies in 1978,
1984/1985, and 1992/1993 were questions about reporting behavior
included. The resulting figures show a very stable reporting rate for
assault, fluctuating between 26% and 28% and for residential burglary,
where the reporting rate is very stable around 60 to 62. However, in
the case of vehicle theft, the findings indicate an increased reporting
rate, from around 60% in the early 1980's to around 75% in the late
1990's. All in all, there is no indication that the trends of residential
burglary have been affected other than marginally by increased
reporting. However, the data indicate that part of the reason for the
higher rate of vehicle thefts in the 1990's may be increased reporting.

Custody  Most offenders convicted of homicide, rape, and robbery will
receive a prison sentence, while only around one third of the convicted
assault offenders receive a prison sentence. Looking at trends in
prison convictions the proportion of rapes resulting in custody
(although always very high) seems to have had a weak trend of
increase in the 1980's and thereafter a weak trend of decrease in the
1990's. While custody sentences for completed homicides and assault
have been stable over the period, the proportion receiving custody for
robbery has decreased markedly since the late 1980's (although there
was a peak in the early 1990's.)

As regards the property crimes, residential burglary has had a
decreasing trend in percent custody convictions in the 1990's, while
the same appears to hold for vehicle theft in the latter part of the
1990's.  All in all, the data on percent custody convictions do not
indicate an increasing punitiveness in Sweden over the study period. 
If there are any changes, they are rather in the other direction,
particularly in the 1990's.

Sentence length  If changes in custody convictions indicate rather 
less than more punitiveness, the data for sentence lengths indicate 
the reverse.  All studied crimes except for vehicle theft have upward
trends. Of the violent crimes, particularly, homicide and rape have the
highest increase. As regards property crimes, residential burglary but
not vehicle theft has an upward, but quite weak, trend.

Time served  The sentence length is not the same as time served.
Time served is highly dependent on rules for parole, and those rules
have changed several times over the study period. The general
picture, considering time served for violent crime, is not one of
increased punitiveness in practice. Calculations of unstandardized
regression coefficients show these either to be non-significant
(homicide and robbery) or to be 0 (assault). Only in the case of time
served for rape has there been a very weak annual increase of 0.2
months over the study period. All in all, the data do not support an
increased punitiveness in practice for violent criminality. For the 
property crimes, the story is a bit different. They are clearly highly
affected by changes in rules for parole, particularly, residential
burglary. Time served went down in the late 1980's and early 1990's
as a result of changes in parole rules, and then, again as a result of
changes in parole rules, increased in the late 1990's.

Percent time served  Changes in percent time served is a complicated
result to interpret because of the combination of changes in sentence
length and rules for parole (that is, time of sentence that has to be
served). Different length sentences, at different times, have different
rules guiding how much of a sentence has minimally to be served. 

The main changes in parole rules were in 1984 and 1994. Among the
violent crimes, the general trend for percent time served is one of
decrease for rape and robbery, with two significant decreases (1984
and 1994), while the same also holds for rape, although only in 1994
there is a significant decrease of percent served. However, for assault,
percent time served was going down during 1984 to 1994 and then up
again. The pattern for the two studied property crimes follows that of
assault.

References

Ahlberg J. and  L. Dolmn (1992) "Fngelsedomar." PM 1992:5,
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Bruun, K. and P. Frnberg (1985) Den svenska supen. Stockholm.
Prisma. 

BR (1998a) Criminal statistics 1997. Br-rapport 1998:3, National
Council for Crime Prevention. Stockholm. 

BR (1998b) Court statistics 1997. Br-rapport 1998:4, National
Council for Crime Prevention. Stockholm. 

CAN (1999) Drogutvecklingen i Sverige, 1999. "Centralfrbundet fr
alkohol och narkotik aupplysning," Rapport 8. Stockholm. 

Hibell, B. (1993) "Alokohol och narkotikautvecklingen i Sverige."
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Janson, C-G and P-O Wikstrm. (1995) "Growing up in a Welfare
State." In Blau, Z.S. and J. Hagan (eds.) Current Perspectives on
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Knutsson, J. (1998) "Bostadsinbrott. I brottsutvecklingen 1995-1997."
Brottsfrebyggande rdet, Br-rapport 20. Stockholm.

Martens, P.L. (1997) "Immigrants. Crime and Criminal Justice In
Sweden." In Tonry, M. (ed.) Ethnicity, Crime and Immigration.
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Vol 21. Chicago. University of Chicago Press.

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SCB (1996) The Swedish Survey of Living Conditions: Design and
Methods. Appendix 16. Statistics Sweden. Stockholm. 

SCB (1997) "Vlfrd och ojmlikhet i 20-rsperspektiv, 1975-1995."
Levnadsfrhllanden. Rapport 91. Statistics Sweden. Stockholm.

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University of Stockholm.

Acknowledgments

P.O. H. Wikstrm, Institute of Criminology at the University of
Cambridge, U.K., and Lars Dolmn, National Council for Crime
Prevention, Sweden, wrote this chapter. Lars Hll, Statistics Sweden,
provided facts and figures on the Swedish victim survey, and Leif
Petersson, BR, the National Council for Crime Prevention, Sweden,
provided crime and court statistics.

Authors

Per-Olof H. Wikstrm is Professor of Ecological and Developmental
Criminology, Institute of Criminology, University of Cambridge (UK). 
He is the director of the Economic and Social Research Council,
Cambridge Network for the Study of the Social Contexts of Pathways
in Crime (SCoPiC, <http://www.scopic.ac.uk/>). He is also the principal
investigator of the Peterborough Adolescent Development Study. His
recent publications include "Do Disadvantaged Neighborhoods Cause
Well-adjusted Children to Become Adolescent Delinquents?" (2000,
with Rolf Loeber), "Social Mechanisms of Community Influences on
Crime and Pathways in Criminality" (2003, with Robert J. Sampson),
and "Crime as an Alternative" (2004). In 1994 Professor Wikstrm
received the American Society of Criminology's Thorsten Sellin and
Sheldon and Eleanor Glueck Award, for international contributions to
criminology. In 2002 he was elected a fellow of the Center for
Advanced Study in the Behavioral Sciences, Stanford University.

Lars Dolmn, National Council of Crime Prevention, Sweden and
Department of Criminology, Stockholm University. 

Switzerland

Aims

The main aim of this chapter is to summarize trends in crime and
justice in Switzerland between 1985 and 1999 and to investigate some
possible explanations of them. The six serious offenses studied are
burglary, motor vehicle theft, robbery, serious assault, rape, and
homicide. The key questions addressed are similar to those stated in
the chapter on England and Wales. These questions were addressed
using police and conviction statistics as well as victimization survey
data. 

Description

Switzerland, situated in the heart of Western Europe, originates from
an alliance of rural and urban republics (cantons) which dates back to
the 14th century. Conquests during the early 16th century led to
Switzerland developing into a multi-lingual country, with German,
French, Italian, and Romansh speaking areas. Formally independent
and neutral since 1648, Switzerland became a federal state in 1848,
with a constitution heavily inspired by the model used in the United
States of America (USA), which leaves the cantons ("states") largely
autonomous, particularly in matters of criminal justice. Since the
occupation during the Napoleanic wars (1798-1814) and a short civil
war (in 1847), Switzerland has not seen any more armed conflict on its
territory. 

Populated by a population of 7 million (in 2000), with some 46% Catholics
and 40% Protestants, Switzerland has one of the highest proportions of
immigrants in Europe (20%). Traditionally most immigrants have come
from southern Europe and, more recently, predominantly from Balkan
countries and areas outside of Europe. 

Despite the lack of natural resources, Switzerland has developed, over
the 20th century, to become one of the most affluent countries in Europe.
Since the 1950's there has been a shift from emigration (mostly to the
USA) to massive immigration. Although Switzerland's largest cities are
relatively small (Zurich has a population of just over 330,000), most 
of the population live in urbanized (suburban) areas. Less than 5% are
employed in agriculture, and less than 10% live in "real" rural areas
(towns with less than 1,000 population).***Footnote 1:  Statistical
information is from Annuaire statistique de la Suisse--2001, Zurich: 
Editions "Neue Zurcher Zeitung."*** The unemployment rate was 2.4%
in 1999, and according to the 2000 International Crime Victim's Survey
(ICVS), 80% of households have at least one car and 29% have at least
two cars.

The criminal justice system

Switzerland had in the course of its legal history been under the
influence of French, German, and Austrian-Hungarian criminal
legislation. After having long been a cantonal matter, the substantial
criminal law was unified in 1937. The criminal code, which entered into
effect in 1942, has been a fairly independent codification, innovating
upon and melting various concepts from neighboring countries (Killias,
2001b). 

Switzerland's system of prosecution and criminal justice has remained
widely a cantonal matter. In general the Western cantons (including a
few German-speaking ones) have remained under the influence of the
French tradition, with a juge d'instruction (or examining magistrate) 
as a key figure who operates independently of the prosecutor(procureur).

In the majority of the German-speaking cantons and in the Italian-
speaking canton of Ticino, the function of the examining magistrate 
is performed by a local prosecutor (Staatsanwalt), as is the case in 
Germany and Italy (Piquerez, 2000; Schmid, 1997). Before the
courts the accusation is represented by the prosecutor, especially in
important cases (with longer sentences expected), in which the canton's
chief prosecutor or one of his or her deputies intervenes regularly. In
minor cases, however, the court is left alone with the defendant and his
or her counsel, and the court examines the facts on the grounds of the
evidence presented by the accusation in writing. Usually, the 
interrogation of parties and witnesses is led by the court's chairperson.
Although cross-examination does exist in theory, it rarely plays more 
than a complementary role during hearings.

In sum, the Swiss system follows the inquisitorial tradition of the
European continent, with a focus on truth rather than on formal issues.
The European Convention of Human Rights (which plays a great role in
the daily practice before Swiss courts) has increased respect of formal
principles, but not to the extent that courts or prosecutors would accept
convictions based on evidence which may have been gathered without
violation of rights of the defendant, but where they doubt the facts to be
true.***Footnote 2:  That is true even in the case of guilty pleas which,
except for minor offenses, never relieve the court from hearing the case
and the evidence (see Langbein 1974, concerning Geman law).***

A distinctive feature is also the limited discretion left to examining
magistrates, prosecutors, and police officers (Killias, 2001b). Whenever
they feel the facts justify a reasonable suspicion that an offense has 
been committed, they are, except for Geneva and a few other cantons, 
obliged to prosecute. These officials also are obliged to consider 
facts which might discharge a suspected person; several magistrates 
and prosecutors have been convicted for failure to share with the court
evidence favorable to the defendant. A corollary of this system of
compulsory prosecution are the offenses whose prosecution is conditional,
according to the criminal code, on a formal complaint of a victim (or 
any other party having this quality according to the law).

Method

Data on crime, victimization, and punishment

This section outlines the data collection methods available in Switzerland.
Since 1942 the registration of convictions has been a federal matter.
Since 1984 data have been recorded on a database which includes full
details on convictions (offenses included in the verdict) and sentences
imposed.***Footnote 3:  The specific rules on the registration of
misdemeanors are of no concern in the present context.  Convictions for
any of the six offenses under consideration are registered under all
circumstances (Killas 200lb, n 1466-1469).***  As in the majority of
European countries (European Sourcebook, 1999), a conviction is recorded 
in the registers and, therefore, in the statistics only after appeal.
However conviction statistics do not include minors (person convicted 
for offense committed before age 18). In comparison to other continental
countries, Swiss data are less inclusive in this respect. Since the focus
in this paper will be on trends and not on cross-country comparisons of
convictions, this should not be a major concern.

Since 1984 a related database has contained information on every person 
who enters the correctional system in connection with a custodial 
sentence. This database provides information on how long prisoners 
have served under a particular conviction (Rnez, 1997) and is 
regarded as one of the most sophisticated databases in continental
Europe at present. 

The same cannot be said of Switzerland's police statistics, which are
far from satisfactory. Federal level police data on offenses and
suspects have been available since 1981; however, statistics are
limited because they are based on a compilation of data provided by
cantonal police departments (see Killias, 2001a, n 217-223). Furthermore,
there is no standardization of data collection procedures or written 
rules on how to record and count offenses. It is likely that while some
departments count offenses at the "output" (that is, when the police 
transfer the file to the examining magistrate), other departments count
offenses at an earlier stage. There are also discrepancies in counting
procedures (as detailed in the European Sourcebook, 1999, 80-84). For 
example the 30 victims of a mass "suicide" of a sect in 1995 (many of 
whom were actually murdered)were counted as one "case" in the cantons 
of Valais and Fribourg,  whereas the Zurich police probably would have 
recorded the total number of victims. Beyond these differences some 
cantons have developed more detailed statistics, such as the canton of 
Zurich, which provides approximately one-third of the offenses which 
appear in the federal statistics. For the following trend analyses, the 
Zurich statistics will be used to make reasonable estimates, whenever 
the federal statistics are insufficiently detailed.

The present research

The first national crime survey of Switzerland was conducted in two
phases in 1984 (French-speaking cantons) and in 1987 (German-speaking 
cantons and Italian-speaking canton).***Footnote 4: The survey was 
conducted in two phases because of political difficulties. Since crime 
rates were fairly stable between 1984 and 1987, the impact of the split 
was likely to be minimal.***  The overall sample comprised 6,505 
respondents. The survey had a few innovative features (Killias,1989). 
It was one of the first major victim surveys conducted using computer-
assisted telephone interviews (CATI). The use of CATI made it possible 
to collect data from a large sample of respondents (n=6,505), because 
of a high telephone penetration rate and sophisticated computer 
technology. The response rate was 71% in the German-speaking cantons 
and 60% in the Latin cantons. The reference period was defined in a way 
that allowed victims to mention, in the first round, any victimization 
that came to mind. If respondents mentioned one of the crimes listed in 
the screener, they were asked follow-up questions to determine more
precisely the timing of the incident (whether it took place during the
current year, the previous year, or earlier). These questions allowed
telescoping to be reduced, by separating the definitional part of
questions on offenses, from their temporal and spatial location. To 
test the reliability of CATI interviews, face-to-face interviews were
conducted with a sub-sample of respondents who had already been
interviewed using CATI. CATI interviews were found to be highly
reliable and there was found to be a very moderate effect of the
response rate on the results.***Footnote 5: As in other tests differences
were not large since refusals were mostly related to the theme of the
survey.  Due probably to higher motivation as a result of personal
experience, cooperation was slightly better among victims.*** Beyond
these methodological aspects, the first survey of this type in
Switzerland included many questions on lifestyle, risk, and other
independent variables. 

The Swiss survey was used in the development of what became the ICVS; 
for example, the questions on the temporal and spatial aspects of
incidents were based on the Swiss questions. The ICVS also drew on the
methodology (for example, questions) of the British and Dutch crime
surveys.  Respondents were interviewed using CATI, thus keeping costs
relatively low and allowing the use of reasonably large samples.
***Footnote 6:  The costs of a CATI interview can be estimated
to be at about 20% to 25% of a personal interview.*** Criticism of the
ICVS led to an extensive methodological experiment in the Netherlands.
Two parallel victimization surveys (CATI versus telepanel) were
conducted to determine whether they yielded similar victimization rates,
and indeed found this to be the case (Scherpenzeel, 1992).***Footnote
7:  Survey completed on a computer at home.  This method shares many
features of mail surveys, but allows higher response rates and offers
better control over the way the questionnaire is completed.*** In 
addition the CATI sample was randomly split into two sub-samples. This 
was to compare the ICVS approach in locating incidents in time with the 
more conventional model of asking respondents directly about incidents
experienced during "the last 12 months" and others, as is the case in
many European surveys (for example, the British Crime Surveys).
***Footnote 8: That is asking first about victimizations experienced 
over the last 5 years and then only when more precisely eventual 
incidents had occurred (with a special focus on the current and the last
year).*** It was found that in the latter case, serious crimes were often
telescoped into the reference period, although they had occurred long 
before. For robbery and burglary, the rates were 2.2 and 2.5 times
higher than was observed using the ICVS model.***Footnote 9: Telescoping
effects were weaker for less serious offenses, such as bicycle thefts, 
which tend to be more rapidly forgotten, than serious forms of
victimization.***  It can be concluded that Scherpenzeel's (1992)
experiment provides support for the use of CATI as an interview method
in victimization surveys, and to the way the ICVS and the Swiss national
crime survey had dealt with the problem of telescoping.***Footnote
10:This problem was addressed in the National Crime Victimization
Survey in the USA, through bounding the interviews within the panels.
Nowhere in Europe has this expensive method been adopted (Killias,
1993).***   

The first Swiss national crime survey was followed by the ICVS of 1989
and 1996, in which Switzerland participated with sample sizes of 1,000
respondents.***Footnote 11:  In the following trend analyses, the two
parts of the first survey will be related to 1985 (that is, the year 
between the two waves).*** The response rates were 68% in 1989, and 56% 
in 1996. In 1998 a second national crime survey was conducted, with a
sample of 3,041, followed by a third national crime survey in 2000, with
a sample of 4,234 respondents. In the surveys of 1998 and 2000, booster
samples were taken from certain city areas, to overrepresent the
immigrant communities and thus to allow more detailed analysis of this
group in the population. The 2000 survey formed also part of the last
ICVS. 

The present paper uses only weighted and national data. The response
rates for both the 1998 and 2000 surveys were around 60%.***Footnote
12: In 1998 and 2000 the computation is less straight forward than in
former surveys due to the replacement of households with consenting
respondents by new ones if the demographic characteristics of all
available household members were already over represented in the
sample. According to various ways of treating these cases, the response
rate varies in 2000 from 54% to 65%.*** The screeners used in the
various sweeps differed slightly for a few offenses; therefore rates were
made comparable with minor adjustments (using responses to follow-up
questions). The 1998 and 2000 screeners were identical, with minimal
deviations from the 1996 version.

Comparability

Switzerland's definition of the six offenses under consideration has
followed the continental tradition. Please refer to the European
Sourcebook of Crime and Criminal Justice Statistics (1999) for a more
detailed description of the offense definitions. 

There are several categories of homicide; however, this paper is
concerned only with the overall concept of intentional homicide (which
follows the standard definition). The data used here include all forms 
of intentional killing of a person, but exclude attempted homicide. 

For the offense of bodily injury and assault, there are three
categories.***Footnote 13: Sections 122, 123, and 126 CC.*** In Swiss
law (like in the laws of other continental countries), there is no 
equivalent to the offense of serious assault found in English law.
First-degree bodily injury includes only life-threatening injuries or 
those which leave the victim permanently and seriously disabled. Fewer 
than 50 offenders are convicted of this offense per year, compared with 
more than 1,000 convictions annually for second-degree assault. Third-
degree assault includes cases in which the victim has suffered pain but 
has not been injured. For the sake of comparability, the present study 
will use data for the categories of first-degree bodily injury and
second-degree assault only. 

Robbery is defined as theft with violence. Therefore, taking something
from another person without physically aggressing him/her (as in the
case of bag-snatching) is considered to be theft and not robbery. In
contrast, the definition of rape is similar to the definitions of many 
other countries. Rape now also includes spousal rape and the use of 
severe psychological pressure. 

A major problem of comparing the Swiss conviction data with the
standard stems from the absence, under almost all continental laws, of
the concepts of burglary and motor vehicle theft. Whereas joyriding is
a special offense, according to the Road Traffic Act, stealing a car or
any other vehicle with the intent to keep or sell it is considered theft, 
as is stealing valuables from premises or a closed building.*** Footnote
14: The police data used here refer to a national police file of "missing"
motor vehicles. These data do not include cases of joyriding if the
vehicle is located within 1 or 2 days.***  There are a few continental
countries whose laws consider burglary as an aggravated form of theft,
but Switzerland is not among them.***Footnote 15: European Sourcebook - 
1999, 123, 124. Only four Western European countries are able to provide 
data on convictions for vehicle theft and burglary.*** To have something
comparable we use conviction, custody, sentence length, and time served 
data concerning more general forms of aggravated theft (sections 139.2 
and 139.3 Criminal Code); since most burglars are convicted for these 
forms of aggravated theft, these data may provide an approximate measure 
of sanctions imposed upon burglars. 

The Swiss criminal code has been amended many times, and some of
these changes have affected the offenses under consideration in this
paper. For example, in 1990 the definitions of first-degree murder and
bodily-injury were revised; however as these amendments were concerned 
with technical details, they have no statistical impact. In 1992 the
definition of rape was amended to include marital rape and rape using
strong psychological pressure. In 1995 the definitions of theft and 
robbery were technically amended, although this does not have any major
implications for conviction statistics. However, the downgrading of 
minor theft(of goods below the value of US $200) to a misdemeanor (to 
be prosecuted upon the formal complaint of the victim only), led to a 
decrease of police-recorded offenses of theft (including muggings).

Survey and police recorded offenses

The number of victim-survey offenses, comparable population figures
(number of households), and the probability of reporting to the police
were obtained from the Swiss national crime surveys (Killias, Lamon,
Clerici, and Berruex, 2000). The 2000 national crime survey estimated
that there were 34,377 robberies in 1999 and that 50% of these were
reported to the police. Since there was an estimated 5,562,873 persons
age 16 or older in 1999, the survey robbery rate was 6.18 per 1,000
population at risk; disregarding repeat offenses about 1 in every 162
persons was robbed in 1999. All crime survey figures, of course, have
confidence intervals around them. For example the 95% confidence
interval for the robbery rate in 1999 was 3.82 to 8.54 per 1,000
population. Confidence intervals are narrower for the other three
offenses, which are more prevalent. 

Swiss survey crime rates for burglary and vehicle theft are per 1,000
households, while rates for robbery and assault (wounding) are per 1,000
population age 16 or older. Vehicle theft figures refer to completed 
thefts only. Population estimates came from the Federal Office of 
Statistics. 

The main change in the Swiss crime survey was the addition of new
screening questions for domestic violence (see Kesteren and others,
2000). This caused an increase in the number of victim-survey offenses
of assault. For comparability they are not included in the crime trends. 

In order to link offenses and offenders, the average number of offenders
per offense is needed. This is because one offense committed by two
offenders can lead to two convictions (if both offenders are convicted).
Thus, the number of offenders at risk of conviction is the number of
offenses multiplied by the average number of offenders per offense. 
This number was computed using the formula N=V*O, where V was the
number of victims in the whole population and O was the number of
offenders per offenses (according to victims' accounts). 

O was difficult to compute for some offenses, although it was relatively
simple for robbery and assault. The data from the 1996, 1998, and 2000
national crime surveys were used. The average of these survey measures 
was used to extrapolate the number of offenders per offense in 1985 and 
1988, because the relevant information had not been collected at that 
time. For burglary and vehicle theft, the surveys did not provide any
indication of this measure. If the number of suspects according to the 
federal police statistics is related to the number of offenses known to 
the police, the rate is extremely low (0.1), because of the high 
percentage of uncleared offenses. Therefore, the number of offenses known 
for clearance (as indicated in the Zurich police statistics)was weighted,
assuming that known suspects are more reasonably related to cleared 
offenses. This provided a more plausible O. For the computation of the
following rates, these adjusted O's will be used. In the case of rape and
homicide, only completed offenses were considered. The average over all 
years was used in estimating probabilities. Thus O was 1.0 for burglary, 
1.3 for vehicle theft, 1.8 for robbery, 1.7 for assault, 1.1 for rape and 
1.0 for homicide. 

V was easily computed using the survey measures on burglary, vehicle
theft, robbery, and assault; the rates were extrapolated to the whole
population or the total number of households. For completed homicide
national police data was used. For rape survey measures were
considered unreliable, and police statistics were considered to suffer 
from underreporting. Therefore the police data were weighted for the 
reported rape rates for all the ICVS samples used in the 1989, 1992, 
and 1996 sweeps in the USA, Canada, England and Wales, Scotland, the
Netherlands, France, and Switzerland. The total sample included 12,415
females. Of the 50 cases of completed rape, 46 had been reported to the
police (see Enescu, 1999). It was assumed that the reporting of rape to
the police has remained relatively stable and that reporting among the
Swiss respondents occurred in about the same proportions as respondents 
in the combined sample for the seven countries. The police recorded rape 
cases have been divided by .46 for all years, in order to get a more 
realistic estimate of the number of offenses (V). This approach yields 
V's which increase in the case of rape, fluctuate in the case of homicide, 
and show trends similar to what has been observed above for the remaining
survey measured offenses. The number of offenders, based on survey 
measures, who could have been convicted (N) varies accordingly over time. 

The number of offenders who could have been convicted, based on police
recorded offenses (M), is identical to N in the case of homicide,
rape, and vehicle theft. Homicide was measured using police recorded
offenses only; however, no adjustments were necessary for rape and
vehicle theft, because there is no discrepancy between survey definitions
and those applied by police statistics. In the case of robbery and burglary,
adjustments of police recorded offenses were necessary, because survey
measures did not include, among other things, commercial robberies and
burglaries. For assault the survey measure had also been larger than the
criminal law concept of bodily injury, as applied in police and conviction
statistics. 

The absolute number of convictions (C) is known from statistics for all
offenses. However as previously explained, there is under Swiss criminal
law no equivalent to the Anglo-Saxon concept of burglary. Therefore
convictions for aggravated theft (section 139.2 and 139.3 Criminal Code)
will be used. For vehicle theft we use data concerning temporary "theft"
of motor vehicles (section 94 Road Traffic Act). 

When the number of convictions (C) is related to the number of offenders
who could according to police data have been convicted (M), the
probability of conviction (per 1,000 offenders, X) seems to vary
considerably according to offense type. The chance of being convicted
is around 1% for robbery, and between 1% and 2% (on average for the
5 years considered) for assault. For rape the chance of conviction
fluctuates between 9% and 15%, and for homicide it is between 50% and
100%. It should be noted that for less frequent offenses, such as
homicide, the odds of being convicted may vary erratically due to the time
lag; as previously stated convictions are recorded only after appeals and
may, therefore, relate in any given year to acts actually committed during
preceding years.***Footnote 16:  This explains why in 1995 the odds of
a conviction for homicide seem to exceed 100%.*** Beyond such particu-
larities it seems that the odds of being convicted have moderately
decreased for rape, whereas there appears to be no consistent trend for
robbery. In terms of "order of magnitude", it seems, however, that the
odds have remained fairly stable, with much more variation across
offenses than over time.

Convictions

In order to conform to the standard for the common analysis, the
number of convictions have been related to the number of offenses.
Throughout Europe conviction statistics apply a principle offense rule,
and multiple offenses are recorded only once (European Sourcebook,
1999). In the case of a person convicted of killing two people, only one
conviction for murder will, therefore, be counted in the statistics.
Compared to Germany and other countries, Swiss conviction statistics
are more detailed as they record also convictions for secondary
offenses (for example robbery in addition to murder). However,
offenses committed by multiple offenders will be counted only once for
any type of offense committed. Therefore, for example, the number of
convicted robbers will not match the number of robberies cleared by
the police, since the multiple number of robberies committed by a
particular offender (and cleared by the police) will lead to just one
conviction for robbery, irrespective of the number of offenses of which
the defendant has been found guilty. If the court finds an offender also
guilty of rape or drug trafficking, these additional offenses will be
recorded in Swiss conviction statistics, but again without giving the
number of offenses per type of crime.

Given these features of conviction statistics in Switzerland and more
generally in continental Europe, an attempt was made to relate the
number of convictions also to the number of suspects. Both are person
measures and both count the same person only once per offense type,
although some double counts are possible in police statistics given 
their limited consistency.

Sentences

In Switzerland offenders found guilty of multiple offenses at any one time
will receive one overall sentence, which reflects the seriousness of the
principle offense (Killias, 2001b). Sentences in cases in which defendants
have been convicted at the same time of more than one offense are
difficult to relate to any particular offense type. For example the gross
average sentence length for assault (serious and ordinary) varied during
1984-98 between 91 and 152 days; if cases in which offenders had been
convicted of additional offenses were excluded, the average net sentence
length dropped to 14 to 30 days. For theft alone the average net sentence
varied between 15 and 21 days, whereas it was between 61 and 91 days
if cases where offenders had been convicted of theft and other offenses
were included. Assuming that the patterns of multiple offending have
changed little over time, it is possible to tentatively indicate overall
trends. The same problem (and solution) applies to the concept of time 
served in prison.

Results

All surveys provided prevalence data. The number of incidents (during
the last year) was recorded according to the same procedure from
1989 to 1999, but not for 1984 to 1987. Therefore incident rates were
calculated by using estimates based on the prevalence rate for 1984/87, 
and the average number of incidents per victim derived from the other 
surveys. All incidents experienced abroad were excluded. ***Footnote 17: 
For this reason the rates given below may slightly differ from ICVS 
sources. The proportion of victimizations experienced in foreign 
countries is substantial among Swiss respondents and for certain 
offenses. According to the most recent data, 1 robbery in 3 and about 1 
in 10 sexual victimizations have been experienced abroad.***  The rate 
of offenses reported to the police (according to the respondent) needed 
to be extrapolated, since follow-up questions have been asked for the 
"last" incident only, as in the case of ICVS and many other similar
questionnaires.***Footnote 18: Multiplied by incidence/prevalence rate.***  
All rates are given in the spreadsheet. To determine whether crimes were
increasing markedly over time, it was decided for each country to correlate
crime rates with years. For Switzerland correlations are strong, but mostly
based on 5 years only. Therefore, they are not included here.

Survey crime rates

Based on the national victim survey, the residential burglary rate per
household decreased between 1985 and 1988 (from 9 to 7 per 1,000
households), then more than doubled between 1988 and 1997 before
decreasing by around 25%. The vehicle theft rate decreased between
1985 and 1999. The robbery rate increased between 1985 and 1995
(from 4 to 7 per 1,000 population age 16 or older) then decreased by
about a third between 1995 and 1997 and then increased by 40% between 
1997 and 1999. The assault rate increased between 1985 and 1995 (from 
15 to 41 per 1,000 population age 16 or older), then almost halved 
between 1995 and 1997, before increasing to almost 1995 levels in 1999. 

Recorded crime rates

Like the survey burglary rate, the police-recorded residential burglary 
rate almost doubled between 1985 and 1997 (from 2.63 to 4.37 per 1,000
population), and decreased by 12% up to 1999. Recorded crime rates are
shown for all years from 1985 to 1999. The vehicle theft decreased
between 1985 and 1999 from 16.2 to 11.0 per 1,000 population. The
robbery rate increased between 1985 and 1993 by 44% (from 0.31 to
0.56 per 1,000 population) then decreased by 32% until 1995 and
increased again by 18%. The assault rate increased from 1985 to 1999
by 42% (from 1.1 to 1.9 per 1,000 population). The police-recorded rape
rate decreased by 43% between 1985 and 1994 (from 0.24 to 0.17 per
1,000 females) and then increased by 26% until 1999. The homicide rate
increased from 1986 to 1990 by three-quarters (from 0.009 to 0.017 per
1,000 population) and decreased by 56% between 1990 and 1999. In
general changes in survey crime rates were highly correlated with
changes in recorded crime rates. 

Reporting crimes to the police

According to victims the probability of burglaries being reported to the
police decreased from 83% to 74% between 1985 and 1998 and increased by 
5.5% in 1999. This probability stayed very stable for vehicle theft 
(mean 90%) and for assault (mean 28%), decreased sharply between 1985 
and 1995 (from 59% to 24%) for robbery and then increased until 1999. 

Recording crimes by the police

The probability of the police recording a residential burglary that was
reported to them increased from 1985 to 1988, from 86% to 100%, then
decreased in 1995 to 76% and increased until 1999 to 94%. The probability 
of the police recording a vehicle theft tended to increase in two steps, 
from 1985 to 1995, from 22% to 55%, and until 1999 to 100%.

Conviction rates

The conviction rate for residential burglary decreased between 1985 and
1999 from 0.20 to 0.13 per 1,000 population age 10 or older, for vehicle
theft from 0.49 to 0.36, for robbery from 0.11 to 0.09 with an increase
between 1992 and 1994 to 0.11. The conviction rate for assault increased
between 1985 and 1999 from 0.19 to 0.25. For rape the conviction rates
fluctuate between 0.024 and 0.040 and for homicide there is an increase
between 1985 and 1999 from 0.011 to 0.013. 

Custody rates

The population custody rate (persons sentenced to custody per 1,000
population) for residential burglary, vehicle theft, and robbery 
decreased from 1985 to 1999, from 0.08 to 0.05 for burglary, from 0.12 
to 0.08 for vehicle theft, and from 0.04 to 0.02 for robbery.

Probability of an offender being convicted

The number of convictions per 1,000 residential burglary offenders
increased between 1985 and 1988, from 14.9 to 17.8 before decreasing
to 9.7 in 1999. The number of convictions per 1,000 vehicle thieves
increased sharply from 1985 to 1999, from 4.2 to 35.7. The trends per
1,000 robbers or assaulters are less consistent. The number of
convictions decreased from 1985 to 1995, from 12.2 to 6.4 for robbers
and from 18.5 to 8.5 for assaulters, then increased in 1997 to 10.2 for
robbers and to 18.3 to assaulters, before decreasing in 1999 to 6.9 for
robbers and to 12.3 for assaulters. The number of convictions per 1,000
rapists increased from 1985 and 1995, from 91.3 to 146.6 before decreasing
until 1999 to 112.1. The number of convictions for homicide offenders
decreased from 1985 to 1988, from 735.5 to 567.1, increased sharply in 
1995 to 1,080.3, decreased in 1997 to 983.1 and finally increased in 
1999 to 1,098.6. 

Probability of an offender receiving custody

The probability of a residential burglary offender receiving a custodial
sentence increased between 1985 and 1988 (from 5.8 to 6.8 incarcerations 
per 1,000 burglars) but then decreased to 3.9 in 1999. The probability of 
a vehicle thief receiving a custodial sentence increased dramatically 
between 1985 and 1999 (from 1.1 to 8.1 incarcerations per 1,000 offenders).
The probability for a robber receiving a custodial sentence decreased from
1985 to 1999, from 4.1 to 1.5 incarcerations per 1,000 offenders. The
probability of an assaulter receiving a custodial sentence decreased from 
1985 to 1995 (from 3.3 to 1.2 incarcerations per 1,000 offenders) but then
increased in 1997 to 3.0 and finally decreased in 1999 to 2.0. The 
probability of a rapist receiving a custodial sentence increased from 
1985 to 1995 (from 36.1 to 80.4 incarcerations per 1,000 offenders) but 
then decreased to 59.6 incarcerations per 1,000 offenders in 1999. The
probability of a homicide offender receiving a custodial sentence 
decreased from 1985 to 1988 (from 581.9 to 451.1 incarcerations per 1,000
offenders) and then increased dramatically in 1999 to 830.7. 

Probability of custody after conviction

The probability of receiving a custodial sentence after a conviction for
residential burglary and for homicide did not change markedly from 1985
to 1999. For vehicle theft there is a small decrease from 1985 to 1999,
from 0.24 to 0.23. 

Percentage of sentence served in custody

The percentage of a burglary sentence that was served in custody
increased regularly from 51% in 1985 to 82% in 1999 with just one
decrease to 67% in 1997. The percentage of a vehicle theft sentence 
that was served in custody increased from 76% in 1985 to 100% in 1999.
From 1995 to 1999, the percentage is more than 100% probably because
data on time served may relate to persons sentenced in preceding years. 
The percentage of a robbery sentence that was served in custody
increased from 37% in 1985 to 74% in 1997 and decreased to 69% in
1999. The percentage of an assault sentence that was served in custody
increased from 43% in 1985 to 72% in 1988, but then decreased to 56%
in 1995 and increased to 100% in 1999. The percentage of a rape
sentence that was served in custody increased regularly from 36% in
1985 to 68% in 1999 with a small decrease in 1997 to 52%. The
percentage of a homicide sentence that was served in custody increased
from 17% in 1985 to 70% in 1997 and stay constant in 1999 to 66%. 

Average sentence length

The average length of custodial sentences for burglary fluctuates
between 22.9 months in 1985 and 19.1 months in 1999. The average
length of custodial sentences decreased from 11.2 months for vehicle
theft and from 44.0 months for robbery in 1985 to 8.3 months for vehicle
theft and 30.0 months for robbery in 1997 but then increased to 9.4
months for vehicle theft and to 35.6 months for robbery in 1999. The
average sentence length for assault decreased from 15.2 months in 1985
to 13.0 months in 1988, increased to 16.5 months in 1995 and decreased
to 11.7 months in 1999. The average sentence length for rape decreased
from 46.3 months in 1985 to 40.5 months in 1988 but then increased
regularly to 49.7 months in 1999. The average sentence length for
homicide fluctuates with the shortest sentence length in 1988 at 92.8
months and the longest in 1995 at 117.1 months. 

Sentence length is somewhat misleading under continental criminal law.
Unlike Anglo-Saxon judges who often impose a sentence for every offense 
for which the defendant has been found guilty, continental courts mete 
out a global sentence for all offenses together. In case of a conviction 
for multiple offenses, the global sentence will, therefore, mostly
reflect the most serious offense. Thus sentence length will be inflated
particularly for less serious offenses, especially if they coincide with
serious crimes. For example in the case of assault, the average sentence
for offenders found guilty of this offense only is 75 days in 1999, 
whereas it is 356 days if offenders are included who were simultaneously 
found guilty of additional offenses. 

Average time served 

The average time served in custody after sentence for burglary increased
from 11.8 months in 1985 to 17.5 months in 1995, then decreased to 13.1 
months in 1997 before increasing to 15.6 months in 1999. The average 
time served for vehicle theft increased from 8.5 months in 1985 to 11.3 
months in 1995 before decreasing to 8.9 months in 1997 and increasing to 
10.5 months in 1999. The average time served for robbery increased from 
16.3 months in 1985 to 24.5 months in 1999. The average time served for
assault increased irregularly from 6.6 months in 1985 to 12.5 months in 
1999. The average time served for rape increased from 16.6 months in 
1985 to 28.1 months in 1995, but then decreased to 24.8 months in 1997 
before increasing to 33.9 months in 1999. The average time served for 
homicide increased constantly from 19.1 months in 1985 to 65.5 months 
in 1997 and decreased slightly to 63.8 months in 1999.

Average time served per conviction

The average time served per conviction for burglary increased from 139
days in 1985 to 206 days in 1995 but then decreased to 152 days in 1997
before increasing to 193 days in 1999. The average time served per
conviction fluctuates around the mean of 64 days for vehicle theft and of
153 days for robbery. The average time served per conviction for assault
increase, although not regularly, from 35 days in 1985 to 63 days in 1999.
The average time served per conviction increased sharply from 200 days
in 1985 to 547 days in 1999 for rape, and from 457 days in 1985 to 
1,467 days in 1999 for homicide.

Average time served per offender

The average time served per burglary offender increased from 2.1 days
in 1985 to 2.8 days in 1988 but then decreased to 1.4 in 1997 before
increasing to 1.9 days in 1999. The average time served per vehicle thief
increased from 0.3 days in 1985 to 2.6 days in 1999. The average time
served per robber decreased from 2.1 days in 1985 to 1.0 days in 1995
but then increased to 1.4 days in 1997 before decreasing to 1.1 days in
1999. The average time served per assaulter fluctuated with the lowest
figure in 1995 (0.3 days) and the highest in 1997. The average time
served per rapist increased sharply from 18.3 days in 1985 to 68.8 days
in 1995, but then decreased to 54.5 in 1997 and increased again to 61.3
in 1999. The average time served per homicide offender increased from
337.5 days in 1985 to 1,612.3 days in 1999.

Discussion

Methodological issues

Generally speaking burglary and all personal offenses have substantially
increased between the late 1980's and 1995. When appropriate
adjustments were made, the increase in police statistics matched by and
large the trends in crime surveys. From 1995 to 1997 all crimes against
the person dropped substantially, and increased again in 1999 to about
the 1995 levels. This erratic change in survey trends is not matched in
police data. The first question which comes to mind is whether survey
methods might account for these changes. 

The answer is that this is an unlikely cause, for survey methods did not
change between 1995 and 1999. The screeners were, besides a few details
without interest here, identical; all sweeps used CATI; and response 
rates were very similar. It is true that a different company conducted 
the surveys of 1989 and 1996 (from those in 1998 and 2000), but that 
would not explain why the increase from 1997 to 1999 was about as large 
as the drop from 1995 to 1997. The questionnaires in 1998 and 2000 were
identical in all details (as far as measures of crime are concerned). 

Survey measures of burglary and motor vehicle theft followed, in line 
with police statistics, remarkably different trends from crimes against 
the person. Whereas theft of motorcycles continued to decrease, burglary
peaked in 1997 and decreased in 1999. Bicycle theft followed a trend
similar to what was observed for offenses against the person. In
conclusion it seems unreasonable to attribute these changes to
methodological problems. 

Discrepancies between survey and official 
measures of crime

The federal police statistics give a higher burglary rate than the survey
rate, because the federal police statistics category of burglary includes
not only commercial burglaries, but also theft from vending machines,
telephone boxes, ticket machines, parking meters, and others. The Zurich
police statistics were used to weight the federal police data for the
proportion of residential burglaries according to the statistics for 
Zurich. The resulting trend is lower than what victims declared having
reported to the police (as one would expect), and by and large follows 
survey trends. 

The rate for vehicle theft (for example, cars, motorcycles, and mopeds)
was given per 1,000 vehicle-owning households. As surveys provided
data on the number of owners, it was possible to extrapolate, using
survey information and household statistics, the number of households
with vehicles for all years. The dramatic drop in the survey vehicle 
theft rate during the late 1980's was probably influenced by a change 
in the law, which made compulsory the wearing of crash helmets. 

The police data shows a similar trend, though it is less pronounced,
possibly because minor incidents often went unrecorded, particularly
during the 1980's, when many vehicles were located rapidly. The
reduction in the popularity of mopeds among juveniles is likely to have
affected joyriding more than actual theft; a factor which could explain 
why police-recording seems to have increased in recent years. Interestingly,
theft of bicycles which is not discussed here shows a different trend,
which is more similar to the trends of personal offenses (Killias, Lamon,
Clerici, and Berruex, 2000). The number of robberies experienced in
Switzerland is not large enough to provide reliable annual rates, even with
relatively large samples. In order to reduce this problem, the annual rates
were computed on the basis of the 5-year rates. This produced more
stable trends, which are in line with those of other personal offenses
which are indeed very similar (Killias, Lamon, Clerici, and Berruex, 2000).

Survey definitions of robbery include bag snatching and other forms of
"mugging." In order to adjust police measures to survey indicators, such
incidences (legally considered as theft) were also included. On the other
hand, commercial robberies were excluded, using detailed information
from Zurich police statistics and weighting the federal data
accordingly.***Footnote 19: Only robberies committed in public places
(streets) were included.***   Whereas survey measures include only
incidents experienced by persons age 16 or older, the police data (and
related population figures) refer to the total population.***Footnote 20: 
It is not possible to exclude from the police figures incidents experienced
by victims younger than 16.***

The survey measures are annual rates of assault and threats. The police
data include first-, second-, and third-degree cases of bodily injury, plus
threats, extortion, and deprivation of liberty, in order to reach a maximum
of consistency with survey measures of assault (which could include
experiences legally qualifying for any of these other criminal code
sections).***Footnote 21: Criminal Code sections 180 (threats, menaces/
Drohung), 181 (forcing somebody to do or to tolerate something,
contrainte/Ntigung), 156 (extortion, extorsion/Erpressung) and 183
(deprivation of liberty, squestration-privation de libert/
Freiheitsberaubung und Entfhrung).***  Since police measures are by far 
lower than survey estimates for assault/threats, it was decided to 
include in the police data  robberies, assuming that some victims might
have indicated attempted robberies or muggings under the heading of
assault/threat. 

Despite the inclusion of a number of related offenses which might be
listed under the survey measure of assault, the gap between police data
and survey measures seems dramatic. This undoubtedly is due to the
fact that second-and third-degree bodily injury is prosecuted on the
formal request of the victim only. In practice this probably leads the 
police to record reported offenses only when the suspect is known and when
the victim insists on prosecution.***Footnote 22:  An observational study
conducted in Southern Germany some 25 years ago(Krzinger,1978)has shown 
that theft is recorded in over 90% of cases, whereas that rate drops to 
30% in cases of assault. This may well depict the situation in 
Switzerland as well.***

Switzerland is one of the countries where, in the case of assault, the
number of suspects matches by and large the number of recorded
offenses (Council of Europe, 1999), whereas in countries where
recording occurs at an earlier stage, the number of offenses typically
exceeds by far the number of suspects. Research in England and Wales
has shown that the police record less than 40% of reported offenses
against the person (Burrows, Tarling, Mackie, Lewis, and Taylor, 2000). 

Since the limited resources of the police do not allow an increase in
output beyond certain limits within a short time, it is not surprising 
that the massive changes in trends of survey measures between 1995 and 
1999 are not reflected in the output statistics of the police. 
Particularly during the years with open drug scenes, the police had a
conservative policy of recording personal offenses, according to many 
police sources. The 1995 rates of police recorded offenses are, 
therefore, probably substantially too low.

Rape is measured in this paper only according to police statistics.
Although survey measures for rape alone would be unreliable, it may be
noteworthy that, combined survey measures of sexual offenses against
females show a trend similar to what has been observed for assault,
robbery, and bicycle theft(Killias, Lamon, Clerici, and Berruex, 2000).
It is possible that, once more, the output data given in police 
statistics do not reflect real short-term fluctuations in trends. 

According to the federal police statistics, completed homicide has
remained relatively stable over the entire period. Given the unclear
counting rules in the federal police statistics, it was decided to also
present homicide trends according to mortality statistics , which overall
matched well police counts of completed homicide. Rather than being an
instrumental crime, homicide is, in Switzerland and other parts of
continental Europe, mostly related to conflicts in personal life with 
many murderers committing suicide after the act(Massonnet, Wagner, and
Kuhn, 1990). 

Alternative explanations

Property offenses

According to survey crime rates residential burglary increased markedly
up to 1997 and then decreased. A similar trend was seen for adjusted
police-recorded residential burglary. For vehicle theft, survey crime 
rates and police-recorded vehicle theft were similar, showing a marked
decrease up to 1999. 

Burglary, motor vehicle theft, and personal crime not only follow different
trends, but differ in situational respects. Burglary provides access to
small amounts of cash, jewelry, silver, and all kinds of household
equipment. Traditionally, electrical equipment such as televisions, video
recorders, and music systems were most frequently stolen. This is even
reflected in the ICVS question concerning the punishment the respondent
considers appropriate for a burglar who steals a color television. This
pattern has lost most of its importance, and in future ICVS sweeps, it
might be necessary to formulate that question in a more contemporary
way. Televisions and other electrical household equipment have lost
most of their former value on local secondhand markets (Felson 2000,
1997). 

However the fall of the Berlin wall brought the poor and the wealthy parts
of the continent into close proximity. Given the short geographic distance,
various forms of exchange between the two sides was immediate. Beyond new
lines of transportation for drugs and other illegal goods, exportation of
prostitutes, and cheap labor, attractive markets emerged for the 
exportation of secondhand products from Western Europe. Used cars,
televisions, and personal computers and others -- goods which were no 
longer as attractive as before on western secondhand markets -- went east. 

Police reports also observe increasing burglaries in factories and
storehouses of boutique chains, beauty shops, and others where the
burglars depart with the stocks of a full season. All this shows that
burglary has changed in character since 1990, moving from an
occasional activity of local offenders to a large-scale trans border
industry. In line with these developments, the proportion of suspects 
of Swiss nationality has dropped, in absolute figures, by 70% since 1983,
according to Zurich police statistics, whereas foreign nationals have
increased by more than 200% since 1990 (Killias, Lamon, Clerici, and
Berruex, 2000). Whereas burglary has shown decreasing trends in the
United States and in Britain over most of the 1990's, Switzerland has,
with other European countries (Killias and Aebi, 2000), continued to
experience increasing trends, along with the expansion of trans border
crime which compensated the drop in local burglaries. The recent drop
according to police statistics and survey measures, may reflect saturation
of eastern secondhand markets, as well as possible effects of police
measures against trans-border crime in several eastern European countries 
who are seeking to join the European Union.***Footnote 23: That jewelry and
silver have recently become prime targets of burglars, according to police
sources, might reflect a shift in opportunity structures. Such valuables 
might still be in demand in Eastern Europe, and they are less difficult 
to transport (and conceal).***  *
**Footnote 24: According to observations such as in Poland, stolen cars 
need to be moved further and further to the East, whereas they used to be 
sold in Western Poland a few years ago.***

This market explanation may apply also to car theft and, more generally,
to motor vehicle theft, but some additional explanations based on routine
activities may be in order. Joyriding with cars may have become
increasingly difficult over the last 20 years due to the advances of 
security technology. With motorcycles and mopeds, joyriding has become a 
risky crime to engage in, once the wearing of crash-helmets has become
compulsory in 1987(Dell'Ambrogio, 1992). Similar trends were observed
by Mayhew, Clarke, and Elliott (1989) in Germany and in England and
Wales. The continuing downward trend of motorcycle and moped theft
may be due to reduced attractiveness of these means of transportation
among adolescents. Eventually, some displacement to bicycle theft may
have occurred, in line with the high popularity of mountain bikes among
young people in recent years. After a sharp increase (by more than
100%) between 1988 and 1995, bicycle thefts have dropped along with
crimes against the person in 1997, and moderately increased again in
1999. 

Personal offenses

According to the survey crime rates, robbery and assault increased
markedly up to 1995, decreased in 1997, and increased again in 1999.
Similar trends of police-recorded robbery have been observed. For
assault, police-recorded crime rates showed a more steady increase. 

Excluding cases of domestic violence (which are hard to measure with
crime victimization surveys), robbery, assault, sexual offenses and
bicycle theft, commonly occur in public areas such as streets.
***Footnote 25: Although the Swiss (and ICVS) questionnaires of 1998 
and 2000 made special efforts to identify them as well.***  It is 
therefore reasonable to look for an explanation of the trends, at the 
level of what goes on in public areas. In urban areas with a high
concentration of activities related to drugs and prostitution, offenders 
are likely to find many potential victims, a fact which attracts more
offenders (Wikstrm, 1985). In 1999 a local crime survey in Zurich found 
that the rate of local resident street-crime victimization was around 10 
times higher in Zurich's "problem" areas than in the most privileged 
areas of the city (Killias,2001a). Thus the size and the deterioration 
of such inner city areas may play a crucial role in overall crime levels. 

Furthermore, the existence of large open drug scenes was certainly
among the major factors in the increase in street crime in Switzerland's
cities between 1989 and 1995 (Eisner, 1997). Open drug scenes were
very much influenced by the extension of medical assistance to addicts
in a few city centers. This led to a concentration of addicts and of 
dealers in city centers. According to unpublished Zurich police data 
(see Killias and Uchtenhagen, 1996), 73% of cleared muggings and 35% of
cleared burglaries were committed by addicts in 1995.

In 1994 with the support of the Federal Government, a heroin prescription
program for a small number of addicts began. A few weeks later "needle-
parks" in Zurich and other cities were closed. From 1995 and 1996 the 
heroin prescription program was made available to 800 addicts.
Simultaneously methadone substitution was extended to roughly 15,000
addicts. The total number of regular consumers of heroin being estimated
at about 25,000, a substantial proportion of all heroin addicts became,
thus, admitted to a substitution program. 

These programs had two consequences: (1) a dramatic drop in criminal
involvement among recipients of heroin and, to a lesser extent, among
those enrolled in methadone programs (Killias, Aebi, Ribeaud, and
Rabasa 1999; Killias and Rabasa, 1998);***Footnote 26: According to
police, self-report, and victimization data (collected regularly from the
addicts in heroin treatment), street crime dropped by 50% to 90%, with
serious offenses showing larger decreases.*** and (2) an immediate
reduction in the concentration of addicts in Switzerland's urban centers. 

Both consequences may have contributed to a reduction in crime. On one
hand, reduced delinquency among addicts (that is at the micro-level)
diminished the number of motivated offenders, a fact that is clearly born
out in the 1998 and 2000 surveys since, according to accounts of robbery
victims, the proportion of addicts among the offenders had dropped from
23% in 1993-97 to 10% in 1995-99.***Footnote 27: Drug addicts were
mostly involved in drug trafficking, robbery, mugging, bicycle theft, and
personal theft.*** ,28: Given the low absolute numbers (n=75 in 1993-97
and n=110 in 1995-99), the victim accounts of offender characteristics
were analyzed using 5-year rates. No such question was asked in the
surveys conducted before 1998.*** The reduced concentration of addicts
may have diminished the attractiveness of offending in certain urban
areas. This improvement may have been responsible for the drop not
only in robberies but also in assault and sexual aggression -- two
offenses in which, according to Swiss data (Killias and Rabasa, 1998),
addicts were not particularly involved. It is feasible that both effects 
may have reached a major impact on macro-level crime rates between 1996
and 1997. 

The recent increase in 1999 is yet hard to explain. Since according to
victim accounts the proportion of addicts among the offenders was lower
in 1999 than in 1997, a return of the drugs-crime link is unlikely to 
have been the cause. A possible explanation is that recent migrations 
may have changed the shape of urban centers in 1999, and led again to
increased concentration of social problems in certain areas. 

Within Western Europe Switzerland received by far the highest number of
refugees from the Balkan area, particularly during the winter and spring
of 1999.***Footnote 29: Officially about 160,000 people from Kosovo
alone, not including illegal immigrants, in a population of about 7
million.*** Although conviction rates have been relatively high among
refugees in general over recent years (Eisner, Manzon, and Niggli, 1998;
Office fdral de la statistique, 2000), little evidence is yet available 
to support such a hypothesis.***Footnote 30:  According to conviction
records 15% of male asylum seekers age 18 to 29 are convicted per
year, compared to 4% of the resident foreign male population and 3% of
Swiss males of the same age.*** However the proportion of offenders
whom the victims of violent crime perceived as being of foreign origin 
has increased between 1987 and 1999 from 33% to 63% in the case of
robbery, from 40% to 52% for sexual aggression, and from 19% to 55%
for assault (Killias, Lamon, Clerici, and Berruex, 2000).***Footnote 31: 
By far the most important criterion of identification was language or
accent, a fact that does not surprise in a country where accents play a
central role in daily life. Thus foreign origin means in the present 
context a social fact rather than a legal status. ****

These proportions match more or less what is shown by police statistics.
It is thus not impossible that recent demographic changes may be at the
origin of a new deterioration in urban centers, and, indirectly, of the
sudden increase in crime observed in several cities --and nationwide --
in 1999. 

An alternative (but not necessarily competing) explanation would be that
youth (gang) violence increased over the last few years. Detailed 
analysis of trends in victimization shows indeed that violence against 
teenage boys has disproportionately increased over the last 2 years.

Punishment

Trends in convictions for burglary and robbery decreased markedly per
population and per offender and increased for homicide and rape
(markedly only per offender). For assault there is an increase per
population but a decrease per offender, while the opposite is true for
vehicle theft.

The probability of custody following a conviction decreased slightly in 
the case of robbery, assault, and rape, possibly reflecting a more 
critical attitude among judges towards imprisonment in the case of 
property offenders in general (Killias, Aebi, Kuhn, and Rnez,1999). 
The picture is more stable or slightly increasing for the other offenses. 

The reader may wonder that a rather large percentage of persons
convicted of intentional homicide are not actually imprisoned. This is 
not related to therapeutic measures, since they are, in all but 
exceptional and quantitatively negligible cases, counted as custodial
sentences. The reason is that under Swiss law custodial sentences may be
suspended if the defendant has killed in self-defense or under mitigating
circumstances.***Footnote 32: If self-defense is admitted the defendant
will be acquitted. However in many cases the judge finds that the
defendant's reaction was excessive. In this case the homicide will no
longer be considered as justified, but the self-defense situation in which
the defendant has acted will be a seriously mitigating circumstance.*** 
***Footnote,33: For example the fact of having played a secondary role
in the killing of the victim (notably as an accomplice).*** The custody 
rate per 1,000 offenders was highly negatively correlated with all 
survey and recorded crime rates. 

The average sentence length, average time served, and the percentage
of sentence served in custody were not consistently related to survey or
recorded crime rates.  The average number of days served per conviction
also had no consistent relationship to rates, but the average number of
days served per offender were highly negatively correlated with rates for
all offenses.

If the probability of being convicted influences the behavior of potential
offenders, the number of convictions per 1,000 offenders should predict
the crime rate rather than the reverse. "Conviction Rate/Offense A"
indicates predictive correlations with the crime rate in one year predicting
the number of convictions per 1,000 offenders in the next year ("crime
first"). "Conviction Rate/ Offense B" indicates predictive correlations with
the number of convictions per 1,000 offenders in one year predicting the
crime rate in the next year ("crime second"). 

No real explanations could be taken with correlations between either
Conviction Rate/ Offense A or Conviction Rate/Offense B and survey or
recorded crime rates. 

Correlations vary between survey and recorded crime rates and the custody 
rate per 1,000 offenders and the number of days served per offender, for 
the "crime first" (A) and "crime second" (B) conditions. There was no
consistent tendency for the probability of punishment in one year to 
predict the crime rate in the next year or the reverse.

When the trends in convictions and time served per offender are related
to crime rates, no clear picture emerges. It is true that robberies and
assaults reached a peak in 1995 when the "costs" following such offenses 
seem to have fallen to a minimum. In terms of deterrence, however, it 
would not be easy to explain why this drop in "costs" was followed by a
substantial drop in robberies and assaults in 1997, rather than by an
increase. In 1999 the "costs" associated with robbery but not for assault
dropped again; despite that, both offenses increased in 1999 (over 1997) 
to about the same extent. The "costs" of homicide increased apparently a 
lot over the years, but no similar trend is visible in recorded offenses. 
Rape increased somewhat over the years, although the trend in "costs" is
rather stable, despite a few erratic fluctuations. 

Even more important may be a methodological problem, since trends in
"risk of punishment" (risk of conviction/ sentence length) depend also 
on the denominator. In order to conform to the common model, we have
esti-mated the number of offenders using estimates derived from crime
surveys. This denominator has the disadvantage of yielding apparently
lower risk rates every time survey measured offenses increase, and to
show an apparent increase, when, according to the survey, crime is
decreasing. Thus the denominator may lead to partially circular
conclusions. If the number of convictions is divided by the number of
offenders known to the police, the sometimes strong variations in "costs"
of offending tend to disappear. The data for assault illustrate this 
problem in more detail. 

Of course it is hard to decide whether risk of conviction should be related
to offenders known to the police, or to those in the population according
to survey estimates. Obviously the two denominators yield different
results. Survey estimates of offenders might reflect better the actual risk
of criminal behavior in a given society, whereas police-recorded offenders
give a more accurate picture of the way the criminal justice system reacts
to crime. As assault data illustrate the criminal justice system's way of
dealing with offenders might have been subject to less variation over time
than the preceding analyses suggest. 

Conclusion

Langan and Farrington (1998) have raised the challenging issue whether
the responses of the criminal justice system will affect crime rates.
Cusson (1993) had presented a similar argument in a thought-provoking
paper a few years earlier. Despite the plausibility of the "cost of crime"
hypothesis, readers may conclude that the Swiss experience was 
inconclusive in this regard. Although crime rates as measured by surveys
seem to have reacted to changes in the "costs" of crime, several problems 
run counter to such a straight forward conclusion. As has been shown our
measures of "risk" of punishment are sensitive to the choice of the
denominator, which for example is much more stable if convictions are 
related to offenders known to the police, rather than survey-based
estimates of numbers of offenders. 

Beyond these methodological issues there are alternative explanations
which may account for the observed changes in Swiss crime trends. Rou-
tine activities and changes in black markets offer competing and equally
plausible explanations. Ironically it seems as in face of the "pros" and
"cons" of the "cost of crime" hypo- thesis, our data behaved along
Switzerland's long-standing policy of neutrality.

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Acknowledgment

We would like to thank Dr. Daniel Fink and his staff at the Swiss Federal
Office of Statistics for their invaluable help in providing data from
conviction and prison statistics.

Authors

Martin Killias, Ph.D. (law), M.A. (sociology) is Professor of Criminology
and Criminal Law at the School of Criminal Justice, University of
Lausanne, Switzerland. Dr. Killias has widely published in comparative
criminology. He was co-author of the first international crime victimization
survey, has been affiliated with the first international self-reported
delinquency survey and is chairing the Council of Europe Experts' Group
editing the European Sourcebook of Crime and Criminal Justice Statistics. 
In 2001, he received the Sellin-Glueck Award of the American Society of
Criminology.

Philippe Lamon, DESS (Criminology), Senior researcher at the School of
Criminal Justice, University of Lausanne, Switzerland. He works on crime
victimization surveys and has published about crime trends based on
victimization data, as well as on measuring local concentrations of crime
through survey data.

Marcelo F. Aebi, born in Argentina, earned a law degree from the
University of Buenos Aires in 1989. In the early 1990's he moved to
Switzerland, and earned a master's degree in criminology and a Ph.D. in
criminology at the School of Criminal Sciences (ESC) of the University of
Lausanne. He worked as a researcher at the ESC, then adjunct professor. 
He was a visiting fellow at the Rutgers School of Criminal Justice (New
Jersey, United States of America) and at the Max Planck Institute for 
Foreign and International Criminal Law (Freiburg, Germany). He is 
currently vice-director of the Andalusian Institute of Criminology of
the University of Seville (Spain), where he teaches Criminology and
Research Methods in Criminology since 2000. His main research topics
include comparative criminology, corrections, methodology, drugs and
crime, and victimization and self-reported delinquency studies. he was
part of Council of Europe Experts' Group that prepared the European
Sourcebook of Crime and Criminal Justice Statistics and he is now
responsible for the Council of Europe Annual Penal Statistics (SPACE).
In Switzerland he participated in the evaluation of the effects on crime 
of the Swiss heroin prescription programs as well as in the evaluation 
of a randomized experiment on the effects of community service and short
time imprisonment. In Spain he conducted two surveys on tourist
victimization and urban victimization. In 2002 he received the Fernand
Boulan Award of the International Association of Francophone 
Criminologists (AICLF). He is also member of several editorial and
advisory boards of criminal justice journals and associations.

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