AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL                                        
952 AM EST SAT NOV 26 2005                                                      
SATELLITE IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW A STREAM OF HIGH CLOUDS OVER THE            
AREA THANKS IN PART TO A STRONG ZONAL JET NEAR 130 KT OVER N GA AND             
SC. PATCHY DENSE FOG AND LOW CLOUDS ARE SLOW TO BURN OFF DUE TO                 
SLOWER HEATING OVER SE GA. MEAN LAYER RIDGE OVER CENTRAL AND N FL               
WILL SHIFT EWD IN RESPONSE TO SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH TX AND            
LA BRINGING SLY FLOW TO MAJORITY OF THE CWA. AT SFC...HIGH PRES                 
CENTER OVER NC AND MID ATLC AREA WILL MOVE E TODAY ALLOWING THE                 
CURRENT NE FLOW TO VEER AND INCREASE A BIT. WEAK TROUGHING IS NOTED             
FROM NE FL AND THEN ENE INTO THE ATLC WITH MODERATE AMOUNT OF                   
CONVERGENCE N OF THE TROUGH OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. THIS IS                    
ALLOWING SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY TO DEVELOP JUST EAST OF THE OFFSHORE              
GA WATERS. GIVEN LOW LEVEL NE TO E FLOW THESE SHOWERS AND                       
CONVERGENCE ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE POPS TO SLIGHT CHANCE OVER                 
COASTAL GA ZONES LATER TODAY. CURRENT ZONES HANDLES THIS WELL AND GFS           
SEEMS TO HAVE A SLIGHT EDGE OVER THE NAM. TEMPS NEAR 70 OVER SE GA              
AND LOWER TO MID 70S IN FL SEEMS REASONABLE. OTHER THAN REMOVING FOG            
...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES ANTICIPATED.                                          
MARINE...CURRENT OBS SHOW NE WINDS 16 KT AT 41008 AND ABOUT 4 KT AT             
41012 NEAR THE SFC TROUGH. WILL NUDGE UP WINDS A BIT IN THE CWF AND             
PERHAPS SPLIT ZONES N TO S TO ACCOUNT FOR STRONGER WINDS OVER GA                
WATERS AND ALSO BASED ON LATEST RUC GUIDANCE. OTHERWISE NO CHANGES              
ANTICIPATED.                                                                    
&&                                                                              
.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
FL...NONE.                                                                      
GA...NONE.                                                                      
MARINE...NONE.                                                                  
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
ARS                                                                             
</PRE></TT></td>   fl                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL                                             
900 PM CST SAT NOV 26 2005                                                      
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
SHORTWAVE OVER THE WESTERN GULF STATES IS BEGINNING TO MOVE                     
NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THIS EVENING. STRONG LOW            
LEVEL JET IS BRINGING INCREASING AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE NORTHWARD...               
AND REGIONAL RADARS ARE BEGINNING TO SHOW INCREASING ECHOES TO OUR              
SOUTH. THIS SHOULD CONTINUE TO INCREASE OVERNIGHT SO HIGH POPS LOOK             
ON TARGET. WILL INCREASE POPS INTO THE CATEGORICAL RANGE OVER THE               
CENTRAL ZONES WHERE RADAR SHOWS LIGHT RAIN JUST UPSTREAM. THERE WILL            
STILL BE A CHANCE FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS LATER TONIGHT AS THE               
MOISTURE CONTINUES TO ADVECT INTO ILLINOIS AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE.              
THE LOW CLOUDS THAT BEGAN TO INCREASE AROUND SUNSET HAVE PUSHED                 
EASTWARD...WITH THE WESTERN AREAS ONLY SEEING MID AND HIGH CLOUDS AT            
THIS TIME. THIS HAS ALLOWED TEMPERATURES TO FALL A LITTLE MORE THAN             
PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED. SURFACE DEWPOINTS ARE RISING INTO THE LOWER 40S            
IN THE SOUTHWEST...WITH MID 30S COMMON ELSEWHERE. WILL THEREFORE                
ADJUST MIN TEMPERATURES DOWNWARD A FEW DEGREES. WITH MORE CLOUDS                
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATER ON...TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE ON THE                
MILD SIDE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION...                                                             
MANY POINTS OF INTEREST THIS FORECAST. 2 MAIN WAVES OF PRECIP ON TAP            
THIS FORECAST. ONE AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT AND SUN MORNING...                    
THE OTHER ON SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING. OVERALL...THE MODELS              
ARE COMING CLOSER TOGETHER ON THE TIMING OF THE NEXT TWO PUSHES OF              
PRECIP. THEY ALL HAVE HAD RUN TO RUN DIFFERENCES...BUT AGREE QUITE              
WELL THROUGH 54 HRS. THEN THE GFS AND CANADIAN GEM GLOBAL LIFT THE              
LOW INTO CANADA WHILE THE NAM KEEPS A SECONDARY LOW OVER N WIS/LAKE             
SUPERIOR THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. ONCE AGAIN...LEANED TWRD GFS FOR                
THE DETAILS.                                                                    
SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...                                    
A THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX HAS ERUPTED OUT AHEAD OF THE MAIN H5 TROUGH              
THIS AFTERNOON. IT SEEMS TO BE TIED TO A SHORTWAVE NOT CAPTURED                 
BY THE MODELS...ALTHOUGH RUC HAS JUST INDICATED A WIGGLE IN THE                 
H5 FLOW. THE STORM SYSTEM IS HEADED TOWARD OUR SW ZONES AND SHOULD              
REACH THEM BY 00Z. I HAVE INCREASED POPS TO CATEGORICAL FOR THIS                
EVENING FOR THAT AREA...WITH THE MAIN FOCUS FOR PRECIP EVERYWHERE TO            
BE PRIMARILY AFTER MIDNIGHT. KEPT THE DISTRIBUTION OF HIGHEST POPS IN           
THE SE HALF OF THE CWA...WITH LIKELY POPS IN THE NW HALF. THIS STILL            
APPEARS ON TRACK...PER ALL THE SHORT TERM MODELS. KEPT THE SUNDAY               
MORNING CAT POPS IN THE EAST...WITH LIKELY POPS WEST. THE SLOWING               
OF THE FRONTAL SYSTEM SHOULD ALLOW FOR ADDITIONAL PRECIP ON SUNDAY              
MORNING. A BREAK IN THE ACTION IS EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON...              
WITH THE NEXT STRONGER WAVE OF PRECIP COMING IN TOWARD 06Z ON                   
MONDAY. THIS COMPLEX WILL HAVE VERY STRONG SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH                
IT. BULK SHEAR READINGS UP NEAR 80...WITH A 70 KT LLJ AT H85 CRANKING           
UP IN OUR E CWA. EVEN IF INSTABILITY WILL NOT BE ESPECIALLY HIGH                
(CAPE VALUES 200-400 J/KG)...THIS ENVIRONMENT WILL BE CONDUCIVE TO              
ROTATING STORMS...AND QUICK SPIN-UP TORNADOES. THE BEST INSTABILITY             
WILL BE TOWARD 00Z MONDAY...AND WILL BE SOUTH OF OUR AREA. SPC HAS              
US IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR DAY TWO...WITH STRAIGHT LINE WINDS THE                  
PRIMARY THREAT. THIS IS UNDERSTANDABLE...WITH 70 KTS OF WIND WITHIN             
4000 FEET OF THE SURFACE...IT WONT TAKE MUCH FOR A STORM TO MIX DOWN            
SEVERE WINDS (50 KTS). PRECIP WATER VALUES CLIMB OVER 1 INCH...SO               
MINOR FLOODING MIGHT BE POSSIBLE FOR A SHORT TIME AS THE COMPLEX                
MOVES QUICKLY THROUGH OUR CWA...BUT WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINS AND                  
FLOODING ARE NOT LIKELY. SO I REMOVED THE HEAVY RAIN SELECTION ON               
THE GRIDS FOR SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY MORNING. LINGERING PRECIP INTO                
MONDAY MORNING IS POSSIBLE...SO I DID NOT REDUCE THOSE POPS MUCH...             
IN COORD WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES...BUT HAVE A FEELING THAT AFTER               
ONE MAIN PUSH OF THE PRECIP WAVE OVERNIGHT...MONDAY WILL NOT FEATURE            
THAT MUCH PRECIP. THE DEPARTURE OF THE LOW INTO CANADA WILL HAVE AN             
AFFECT ON THIS...AND RIGHT NOW THE CANADIAN AND GFS ARE LEANING                 
TOWARD THAT SOLUTION. WARM CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL IN THE WARM                  
SECTOR THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY MORNING...UNTIL THE                
COLD AIR WRAPS IN ON MONDAY. HIGHS FOR MONDAY WILL BE IN THE                    
MORNING...WITH FALLING TEMPS FOR THE NEXT 18 HOURS AFTER THAT. ANY              
PRECIP ON MONDAY WILL CHANGE OVER TO SNOW IN THE AFTERNOON...BUT                
LITTLE ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED.                                                
LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...                                           
TUESDAY WILL FEATURE CLOUDS AND VARIOUS H5 SHORTWAVES IN OUR VICINITY           
DUE TO THE LONG WAVE TROUGH AXIS JUST TO OUR EAST. I KEPT IN A                  
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW THAT DAY...BUT ONCE AGAIN...VERY LITTLE                   
MOISTURE SO NO APPRECIABLE ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED IN OUR AREA.                
A QUICK CLIPPER WAS INDICATED BY PREVIOUS MODELS FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT            
AND THURSDAY. IT MOVED WAY NORTH OF US IN THE GFS THIS MORNING...BUT            
THE CANADIAN AND DGEX ARE STILL INDICATING A QUICK SHOT OF LIGHT                
SNOW POSSIBLE. THE UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS FEATURE LEADS ME TO KEEP               
ACCUMULATION AMOUNTS VERY LOW AT THIS POINT. A WARMING TREND IS                 
EXPECTED INTO NEXT WEEKEND...AS A RIDGE DEVELOPS IN THE PLAINS AND              
WE RETURN TO SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.                                              
&&                                                                              
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
NONE.                                                                           
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
04/SHIMON                                                                       
</PRE></TT></td>   il                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL                                             
317 PM CST SAT NOV 26 2005                                                      
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
MANY POINTS OF INTEREST THIS FORECAST. 2 MAIN WAVES OF PRECIP ON TAP            
THIS FORECAST. ONE AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT AND SUN MORNING...                    
THE OTHER ON SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING. OVERALL...THE MODELS              
ARE COMING CLOSER TOGETHER ON THE TIMING OF THE NEXT TWO PUSHES OF              
PRECIP. THEY ALL HAVE HAD RUN TO RUN DIFFERENCES...BUT AGREE QUITE              
WELL THROUGH 54 HRS. THEN THE GFS AND CANADIAN GEM GLOBAL LIFT THE              
LOW INTO CANADA WHILE THE NAM KEEPS A SECONDARY LOW OVER N WIS/LAKE             
SUPERIOR THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. ONCE AGAIN...LEANED TWRD GFS FOR                
THE DETAILS.                                                                    
SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...                                    
A THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX HAS ERUPTED OUT AHEAD OF THE MAIN H5 TROUGH              
THIS AFTERNOON. IT SEEMS TO BE TIED TO A SHORTWAVE NOT CAPTURED                 
BY THE MODELS...ALTHOUGH RUC HAS JUST INDICATED A WIGGLE IN THE                 
H5 FLOW. THE STORM SYSTEM IS HEADED TOWARD OUR SW ZONES AND SHOULD              
REACH THEM BY 00Z. I HAVE INCREASED POPS TO CATEGORICAL FOR THIS                
EVENING FOR THAT AREA...WITH THE MAIN FOCUS FOR PRECIP EVERYWHERE TO            
BE PRIMARILY AFTER MIDNIGHT. KEPT THE DISTRIBUTION OF HIGHEST POPS IN           
THE SE HALF OF THE CWA...WITH LIKELY POPS IN THE NW HALF. THIS STILL            
APPEARS ON TRACK...PER ALL THE SHORT TERM MODELS. KEPT THE SUNDAY               
MORNING CAT POPS IN THE EAST...WITH LIKELY POPS WEST. THE SLOWING               
OF THE FRONTAL SYSTEM SHOULD ALLOW FOR ADDITIONAL PRECIP ON SUNDAY              
MORNING. A BREAK IN THE ACTION IS EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON...              
WITH THE NEXT STRONGER WAVE OF PRECIP COMING IN TOWARD 06Z ON                   
MONDAY. THIS COMPLEX WILL HAVE VERY STRONG SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH                
IT. BULK SHEAR READINGS UP NEAR 80...WITH A 70 KT LLJ AT H85 CRANKING           
UP IN OUR E CWA. EVEN IF INSTABILITY WILL NOT BE ESPECIALLY HIGH                
(CAPE VALUES 200-400 J/KG)...THIS ENVIRONMENT WILL BE CONDUCIVE TO              
ROTATING STORMS...AND QUICK SPIN-UP TORNADOES. THE BEST INSTABILITY             
WILL BE TOWARD 00Z MONDAY...AND WILL BE SOUTH OF OUR AREA. SPC HAS              
US IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR DAY TWO...WITH STRAIGHT LINE WINDS THE                  
PRIMARY THREAT. THIS IS UNDERSTANDABLE...WITH 70 KTS OF WIND WITHIN             
4000 FEET OF THE SURFACE...IT WONT TAKE MUCH FOR A STORM TO MIX DOWN            
SEVERE WINDS (50 KTS). PRECIP WATER VALUES CLIMB OVER 1 INCH...SO               
MINOR FLOODING MIGHT BE POSSIBLE FOR A SHORT TIME AS THE COMPLEX                
MOVES QUICKLY THROUGH OUR CWA...BUT WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINS AND                  
FLOODING ARE NOT LIKELY. SO I REMOVED THE HEAVY RAIN SELECTION ON               
THE GRIDS FOR SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY MORNING. LINGERING PRECIP INTO                
MONDAY MORNING IS POSSIBLE...SO I DID NOT REDUCE THOSE POPS MUCH...             
IN COORD WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES...BUT HAVE A FEELING THAT AFTER               
ONE MAIN PUSH OF THE PRECIP WAVE OVERNIGHT...MONDAY WILL NOT FEATURE            
THAT MUCH PRECIP. THE DEPARTURE OF THE LOW INTO CANADA WILL HAVE AN             
AFFECT ON THIS...AND RIGHT NOW THE CANADIAN AND GFS ARE LEANING                 
TOWARD THAT SOLUTION. WARM CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL IN THE WARM                  
SECTOR THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY MORNING...UNTIL THE                
COLD AIR WRAPS IN ON MONDAY. HIGHS FOR MONDAY WILL BE IN THE                    
MORNING...WITH FALLING TEMPS FOR THE NEXT 18 HOURS AFTER THAT. ANY              
PRECIP ON MONDAY WILL CHANGE OVER TO SNOW IN THE AFTERNOON...BUT                
LITTLE ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED.                                                
LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...                                           
TUESDAY WILL FEATURE CLOUDS AND VARIOUS H5 SHORTWAVES IN OUR VICINITY           
DUE TO THE LONG WAVE TROUGH AXIS JUST TO OUR EAST. I KEPT IN A                  
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW THAT DAY...BUT ONCE AGAIN...VERY LITTLE                   
MOISTURE SO NO APPRECIABLE ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED IN OUR AREA.                
A QUICK CLIPPER WAS INDICATED BY PREVIOUS MODELS FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT            
AND THURSDAY. IT MOVED WAY NORTH OF US IN THE GFS THIS MORNING...BUT            
THE CANADIAN AND DGEX ARE STILL INDICATING A QUICK SHOT OF LIGHT                
SNOW POSSIBLE. THE UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS FEATURE LEADS ME TO KEEP               
ACCUMULATION AMOUNTS VERY LOW AT THIS POINT. A WARMING TREND IS                 
EXPECTED INTO NEXT WEEKEND...AS A RIDGE DEVELOPS IN THE PLAINS AND              
WE RETURN TO SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.                                              
&&                                                                              
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
NONE.                                                                           
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHIMON                                                                          
</PRE></TT></td>   il                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI                                     
1032 PM EST SAT NOV 26 2005                                                     
.UPDATE...                                                                      
THE 03 SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING                      
FROM JUST NORTH OF CHICAGO ACROSS EXTREME SW LOWER MI...THEN INTO               
NORTH CENTRAL OHIO. THIS FRONT WILL SLOWLY PUSH NORTH DURING THE                
NIGHT. THETA E ADVECTION NEAR 850MB IS ONGOING ACROSS SOUTHERN                  
MICHIGAN AND IS RESULTING IN AN EXPANDING STRATUS DECK. THIS STRATUS            
WILL EVENTUALLY WORK INTO THE SAGINAW VALLEY AND THUMB DURING THE               
OVERNIGHT. WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION ABOVE THE NOCTURNAL BOUNDARY                 
LAYER AND WITH THE EXPANDING CLOUD COVER... TEMPS SHOULD SLOWLY RISE            
OVERNIGHT. THE 00Z UPPER AIR PLOTS SHOWED A MOISTURE GRADIENT NEAR              
700MB ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. THIS MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL LIFT INTO            
THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES OVERNIGHT AS AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE                  
SOUTHERN PLAINS LIFTS INTO THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THIS 700MB               
MOISTURE ADVECTION HAS TRIGGERED SOME RADAR RETURNS ACROSS NORTH                
CENTRAL OHIO. THUS THINK THE CURRENT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE SOUTH               
OVERNIGHT LOOK REASONABLE AS THE MOISTURE WORKS INTO THE AREA.                  
THE CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS TO HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON TEMPERATURE                 
TRENDS AND PRECIP CHANCES OVERNIGHT. SO NO UPDATE WILL BE ISSUED.               
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION... ISSUED AT 636 PM                                                   
A MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL LIFT NORTHEAST            
INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. PERIODS OF LOW                 
LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION AND MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL AFFECT                     
SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN TONIGHT AND THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY IN ADVANCE OF             
THIS WAVE. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION IS ALREADY RESULTING IN THE             
EXPANSION OF A STRATUS DECK BASED AROUND 4500 FT ACROSS SOUTHERN                
MICHIGAN. THESE CLOUDS WILL EXPAND NORTH AND EAST AND AFFECT ALL THE            
TAF SITES WITHIN THE NEXT ONE TO TWO HOURS. LOOKS LIKE THE BEST LIFT            
WILL ARRIVE INTO SE MICHIGAN IN A SERIES OF WAVES. THE FIRST SHOULD             
ARRIVE DURING THE MORNING AS STRONG LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTS NORTH            
ACROSS THE AREA. THE COMBINATION OF RAIN AND SNOWMELT WILL RESULT IN            
MVFR CEILINGS AND MVFR AND IFR VISIBILITY. THE NEXT AREA OF STRONGER            
LIFT SHOULD ARRIVE LATE IN THE AFTERNOON AND PERSIST THROUGH THE END            
OF THE TAF PERIOD AS THE UPPER WAVE LIFTS ACROSS THE STATE. THE 18Z             
NAM AND GFS INDICATE A BRIEF PERIOD OF VFR CONDITIONS AROUND DETROIT            
IN THE EARLY AFTERNOON BEFORE THE NEXT WAVE ARRIVES...WITH FNT AND              
MBS REMAINING MVFR THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. WILL KEEP CEILINGS AND                
VISIBILITY MVFR LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD. PERSISTENT SURFACE MOISTURE             
ADVECTION OVER THE RECENT SNOWMELT MAY HOWEVER CREATE IFR OR LIFR               
VISIBILITIES TOWARD THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO            
BE MONITORED.                                                                   
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND SUNDAY                                                
SHORTWAVE OVER EASTERN TEXAS HAS MADE THE TURN TO THE                           
NORTHEAST...AND WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES LATE             
TOMORROW. THIS SHORTWAVE WILL DELIVER A NICE SURGE OF GULF MOISTURE             
TO LOWER MICHIGAN TOMORROW...RESULTING IN OVERRUNNING RAINFALL. 12Z             
NAM/GFS 295-290 K ISENTROPIC ANALYSIS SHOWING VARYING LIFT                      
THROUGHOUT THE DAY...MAKING THE TIMING OF RAINFALL A LITTLE                     
DIFFICULT. EVEN WHEN THE LIFT/FORCING IS LACKING...WILL LIKELY SEE              
SOME DRIZZLE WITH 40+ DEW POINTS RIDING OVER THE SNOWCOVER HERE IN              
SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN. THUS...OCCASIONAL RAIN AND FOG SHOULD COVER                 
TOMORROW JUST FINE. HAVE NOTED THE ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS                
SOUTHEAST MISSOURI EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. 12Z NAM DOES INDICATE THE              
SHOWALTER INDEX APPROACHING ZERO BY 12Z SUNDAY ACROSS SOUTHERN LOWER            
MICHIGAN. HOWEVER...WITH THE MAIN LOW LEVEL JET WEST OF THE                     
REGION...WILL KEEP THE MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS OUT...IN LINE WITH              
THE DAY 1 OUTLOOK ISSUED AT 1630Z.                                              
FOLLOWED GFS MOS GUIDANCE FOR TEMPS TOMORROW. HOWEVER...TONIGHT IS A            
DIFFERENT STORY. HAVE GONE 3-6 DEGREES COLDER THAN GUIDANCE. WITH               
LIGHT WINDS AND PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES THIS EVENING...TEMPS SHOULD DIVE            
QUICKLY WITH SNOW COVER AND DEW POINTS STILL HOVERING IN THE MID                
TEENS TO LOWER 20S. 12Z NAM INDICATING 3Z SUNDAY TEMPS IN THE LOWER             
20S ACROSS THE NORTH HALF OF THE CWA WHICH SEEMS REASONABLE...                  
ESPECIALLY WITH TEMPS STILL IN THE UPPER 20S AS OF MID AFTERNOON.               
12Z RUC13 IS EVEN FORECASTING SURFACE TEMPS IN THE TEENS OVER THE               
THUMB REGION. THAT SHOULD NOT HAPPEN UNLESS SKIES ARE CLEAR THIS                
EVENING...WHICH IS NOT IN THE FORECAST DUE TO WARM ADVECTION HIGH               
CLOUDS STREAMING IN FROM THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. THINKING TEMPS                
WILL BE JUST ABOVE FREEZING WHEN RAIN ARRIVES TOMORROW MORNING                  
ACROSS THE NORTH HALF...THUS NO MENTION OF FREEZING RAIN. WARM RAIN             
DROPS (850 MB TEMPS OF 5 C BY 12Z SUNDAY ACROSS NORTHERN THIRD OF               
CWA PER BLEND OF NAM/GFS) WITH A SURFACE TEMP OF 32 DEGREES SHOULD              
NOT CAUSE FREEZING ON CONTACT. NOT TO MENTION SOIL TEMPS ARE STILL              
ABOVE FREEZING UNDERNEATH THE SNOW.                                             
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY                                      
OVERALL FORECAST CHALLENGES REMAIN THE SAME AS STRONG STORM SYSTEM              
WRAPS UP THE WEST...FIRST BRINGING MUCH MILDER AIR IN LOWER MICHIGAN            
EARLY THIS WEEK AS IT FORCES A WARM FRONT NORTH OF THE AREA SUNDAY.             
THEREAFTER...COLD/OCCLUDED FRONT PROGRESSES THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY             
WITH THE ATMOSPHERE...IN GENERAL...STEADILY COOLING THE REMAINDER OF            
THE WEEK (BEFORE ANOTHER SYSTEM RACING ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF              
THE CONUS BRINGS SOME BRIEF MODIFICATION LATE IN THE FORECAST).                 
RAIN STILL LOOKS TO BE A GOOD BET ON MONDAY/MONDAY EVENING AS COLD              
FRONT SLOWLY PUSHES THROUGH THE AREA. THERE IS STILL SOME QUESTION              
AS TO WHETHER THERE WILL BE ANY THUNDER. VERY LITTLE INSTABILITY IS             
PROGGED...AND FORCING/CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT WILL NOT BE GREAT             
GIVEN FACT THAT OVERALL FLOW IS PARALLEL TO THE FRONT. THIS LEAVES              
THE DYNAMIC LIFT FROM THE SYSTEM...WHICH WILL BE DECENT...BUT WITH              
THE CORE OF THE STORM SO FAR WEST...NOT GREAT EITHER. GIVEN THE FACT            
THAT A LOT OF THE "INGREDIENTS" ARE MISSING/LACKING...WILL CONTINUE             
WITH JUST RAIN LIKELY AND NO THUNDER MENTION. DID ADJUST THE TIMING             
AS PROGRESSION OF THE FRONT IS SLOWER AND RAIN APPEARS TO BE A GOOD             
BET INTO MONDAY EVENING (AND LESS OF A LIKELIHOOD ON MONDAY MORNING             
AS WELL).                                                                       
THEREAFTER...THE TRANSITION FROM RAIN TO SNOW BECOMES THE ISSUE AS              
COLDER AIR FILTERS IN MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...ALTHOUGH INTENSITY             
BY THAT TIME WILL BE VERY LIGHT PRECIPITATION (MORE SHOWERY-TYPE).              
WILL ADJUST TIMING OF -RASN MIX TO TUESDAY MORNING AND ALL -SHSN BY             
TUESDAY AFTERNOON AFTER COLLABORATION THIS AFTERNOON.                           
PATTERN REMAINS LARGELY UNSETTLED IN COLD UPPER TROF FOR THE REST OF            
THE FORECAST. WILL ADJUST THE PERIOD WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT TO               
DENOTE A LULL IN THE SNOW SHOWERS WITH JUST A FLURRY MENTION...AND              
THEN BRING THE CHANCE OF MEASURABLE LIGHT SNOW BACK THURSDAY AND                
MORE OR LESS INTO THE WEEKEND AS NEXT SYSTEM SLIDES INTO THE LAKES              
REGION. VERY LITTLE CONFIDENCE IN HOW TO HANDLE DAYS 5-7. SEEMS THE             
BETTER CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW WILL COME IN THE THURSDAY/FRIDAY AREA               
GIVEN TIMING OF THE PACIFIC SYSTEM THAT RIDES INTO THE AREA...AND               
THEN A BRIEF QUIET PERIOD HEADING INTO NEXT WEEKEND. THE PROBLEM IS             
THAT THE ERRORS IN THIS PATTERN COULD EASILY CHANGE THE TIMING OF               
THE SYSTEM (AND SUBSEQUENT ONES) BY A SOLID DAY. WILL TRY NOT TO GET            
TOO CUTE WITH THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME.                                        
&&                                                                              
.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
MI...NONE.                                                                      
LAKE HURON...NEARSHORE WATERS FROM PORT AUSTIN TO HARBOR                        
   BEACH...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY....LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH                
   LATE TUESDAY NIGHT.                                                          
   NEARSHORE WATERS FROM HARBOR BEACH TO PORT HURON AND FOR SAGINAW             
   BAY...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH LATE TUESDAY             
   NIGHT.                                                                       
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.                                                           
MI WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.                                                  
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHORT TERM...SF                                                                 
LONG TERM....DG                                                                 
AVIATION/UPDATE.....CONSIDINE                                                   
YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE            
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).                                    
</PRE></TT></td>   mi                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
1010 PM EST SAT NOV 26 2005                                                     
.UPDATE...                                                                      
MAIN FCST ISSUE IS POTENTIAL OF FZDZ LATER TONIGHT.                             
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW TROF LIFTING NE OUT OF THE            
GREAT LAKES. UPSTREAM...RIDGE WAS APPROACHING THE WRN GREAT LAKES               
DOWNSTREAM OF DEEPENING TROF OVER THE ROCKIES. A LEAD SHORTWAVE TROF            
EXTENDED FROM THE SRN PLAINS TO THE WRN GULF OF MEXICO. DEEP SRLY               
FLOW WAS ALREADY SETTING UP ACROSS THE PLAINS AHEAD OF WRN TROF PER             
00Z RAOBS. MOISTURE WAS ALSO SURGING N...PARTICULARLY AHEAD OF LEAD             
SHORTWAVE TROF. 850MB DWPTS ARE UP TO 9C AS FAR N AS NE KS AT KTOP              
WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER UP TO NEARLY 0.90 INCHES THERE AND NEARLY AN            
INCH INTO SRN MO. THIS MOISTURE WILL SET THE STAGE FOR WIDESPREAD               
RAINFALL SUN AFTN THRU MON AS WRN TROF DEEPENS AND HEADS NE TOWARD              
THE GREAT LAKES. CLOSER TO HOME...DEVELOPING SERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW               
HAS RESULTED IN EXPANDING STRATOCU/STRATUS DECK OFF LAKE MICHIGAN               
THIS EVENING AS OVERWATER INSTABILITY IS STILL SUFFICIENT FOR                   
CLOUDS...ESPECIALLY AS AIRMASS IS LIFTED UP THE TERRAIN IN CENTRAL              
UPPER MI. ABOVE THIS RELATIVELY SHALLOW MOIST LAYER...00Z KGRB/KMPX             
SOUNDINGS SHOW DEEP DRY MIDLEVELS...SUGGESTING POTENTIAL OF DZ AS               
MOISTURE DOES NOT EXTEND TO -8C OR COLDER ISOTHERM. BOTH OF THESE               
SOUNDINGS LOOK REPRESENTATIVE OF MIDLEVEL AIRMASS THAT WILL BE OVER             
UPPER MI OVERNIGHT.                                                             
THERE REALLY IS NOT ANYTHING APPARENT THIS EVENING THAT SUGGESTS                
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES ARE NEEDED TO GOING FCST. SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS            
WILL BE NEEDED THOUGH. LOW-LEVEL FLOW OVERNIGHT WILL BE ORIGINATING             
FROM LOWER MI WHERE SFC DWPTS ARE STILL QUITE LOW...AT LEAST NOT ANY            
HIGHER THAN WHAT IS ALREADY BEING OBSERVED OVER UPPER MI. SO...                 
EXPANSION OF LOW CLOUDS AND POSSIBILITY OF FZDZ OVERNIGHT WILL REALLY           
BE A FUNCTION OF AIRMASS PICKING UP MOISTURE OVER LAKE MICHIGAN AND             
THEN UPSLOPING OVER THE FCST AREA. HOWEVER...WITHOUT SIGNIFICANT                
LOW-LEVEL MOISTENING OUTSIDE OF LAKE CONTRIBUTION (WHICH WILL                   
GRADUALLY DIMINISH AS WAA CONTINUES)...BELIEVE THREAT OF FZDZ MAY BE            
DELAYED A BIT...PROBABLY TO COINCIDE MORE CLOSELY WITH STRONGER                 
LOW-LEVEL MOIST ISENTROPIC ASCENT WHICH ARRIVES VERY LATE TONIGHT.              
WILL HOLD ONTO GOING START TIMES FOR ADVY...BUT WILL REMOVE MENTION             
OF PCPN PRIOR TO ADVY TIME. TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN STEADY OR SLOWLY                
RISE FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT.                                                 
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION... ISSUED AT 410 PM EST                                        
MAIN FCST CONCERNS ARE POTENTIAL FOR ICING WITH -FZDZ LATE TONIGHT              
AND SUN MORNING.                                                                
WV IMAGERY...12Z RAOBS AND RUC ANALYSIS INDICATED LINGERING WNW                 
MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW ACRS THE WRN LAKES BTWN THE HUDSON BAY TROF AND            
A RDG INTO THE NRN PLAINS. MAIN FEATURES OF INTEREST WAS THE STRONG             
300/250 MB JET AND ASSOCIATED SHRTWV MOVING THROUGH THE SW CONUS. AT            
THE SFC...A RDG EXTENDED FROM QUEBEC TO NRN MN WHILE A WARM FRONT               
EXTENDED FROM NRN NEB THROUGH CNTRL IA AND NRN IL AHEAD OF                      
DEVELOPING LOW PRES OVER THE PLAINS. DEWPOINTS HAD QUICKLY CLIMBED              
INTO THE 40S FROM KS INTO SE NEB AND 50S OVER OK WITH STRONG SRLY               
FLOW FROM THE GULF. BANDS OF MID LVL WAA CLOUDS HAD ALREADY                     
DEVELOPED ACRS MN/WI AND UPR MI. HOWEVER...WEAK S TO SE FLOW FROM LK            
MI INTO SE UPR MI HAS BROUGHT SOME LOWER CLOUDS AND SOME FLURRIES               
VCNTY KERY.                                                                     
TONIGHT INTO SUN MORNING...WAA WITH CLIMBING 850 MB TEMPS...LOSS OF             
MOISTURE IN THE -8C LYR OR ABV...AND INCREASING SHEAR WILL BE                   
UNFAVORABLE FOR MUCH IN THE WAY OF FLURRIES OVER THE SE THIS                    
EVENING. HOWEVER...CANNOT RULE OUT SOME PATCHY -FZDZ DOWNWIND FROM              
LAKE MICHIGAN AND FARTHER NW WITH UPSLOPE INTO SLIGHTLY HIGHER                  
TERRAIN.                                                                        
LATER TONIGHT...THE NAM/GFS HAVE BEEN REASONABLY CONSISTENT IN                  
BRINGING SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN SFC-850 RH TOWARD THE AREA AS WAA              
STRENGTHENS. WHILE THE MDLS MIGHT BE GENEROUS WITH THE QPF IN                   
SHALLOW MOISTURE REGIME...IT STILL SEEMS THAT THEY HAVE THE RIGHT               
IDEA WITH DECENT POTENTIAL FOR MEASURABLE PCPN WITH BAND OF 290K                
NET ISENTROPIC LIFT MOVING THROUGH. ADDITIONAL LOW LVL OROGRAPHIC               
LIFT WOULD ALSO HELP TO SQUEEZE OUT SOME PCPN. SINCE TEMPS AOA 925              
MB CLIMB ABOVE FREEZING AND PRFL IS DRY AOA -10C...AREAS OF -FZDZ               
SHOULD DEVELOP. EVEN THROUGH DZ SIZE DROPLETS ARE EXPECTED...OF                 
CHOICES AVBL...FZRA ADVY HEADLINE BEST COVERS IMPENDING HAZARDS FROM            
GLAZE ON UNTREATED ROADS/SIDEWALKS. 2M TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO CLIMB              
ABV FREEZING AROUND 14Z-16Z BUT THERE SHOULD BE A LAG IN WARMING                
COLD PAVEMENT AFTER RECENT COLD SPELL. THE KEWEENAW AND FAR EAST CWA            
WERE NOT INCLUDED AS BEST MOISTURE REACHES THOSE AREAS WHEN SFC/2M              
TEMPS CLIMB ABV FREEZING LATER IN THE MORNING.                                  
SUN AFTERNOON INTO SUN NIGHT...GIVEN THE INTENSITY OF THE SHRTWV                
MOVING THROUGH SW AND TYPICAL MDL PERFORMANCE..THE SLOWER                       
STRONGER/GFS WAS PREFERRED COMPARED TO THE NAM. GFS INITIAL VORT MAY            
HAVE SOME CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK BUT NAM/GFS AND THE CMC HINT THAT                 
LEAD SHRTWV MOVING NORTH INTO THE AREA IN THE AFTERNOON WILL BRING              
BETTER CHANCE FOR MORE RAIN SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON OR EVENING.                
WITH VERY STRONG H8 WAA CONTINUING AND H8 DEWPINTS TO NEAR 7C GIVING            
SHOWALTER INDEX CLOSE TO 0C...CANNOT RULE OUT SOME ISOLD                        
TSRA...ESPECIALLY OVER THE SOUTH. WITH RELATIVELY WARM MOIST AIR                
OVER MELTING SNOWPACK...AREAS OF DENSE FOG STILL LOOK                           
LIKELY...ESPECIALLY IN PERIODS WHEN RAIN TAPERS OFF.                            
MON...DRY SLOT MOVES SHOULD MOVE INTO THE W HLF OF UPR MI WITH WARM             
CONVEYOR MOISTURE AND HEAVIER RAIN SHIFTING INTO THE ERN CWA. WILL              
KEEP GOING CATEGORICAL POPS GOING WITH LINGERING TIMING/LOCATION                
UNCERTAINTY OF THESE FEATURES.                                                  
MON NIGHT...MDLS HAVE TRENDED SLOWER WITH THE PROGRESSION OF THE MID            
LVL AND SFC LOW SO CHANGEOVER TO SNOW WAS ADJUSTED ACCORDINGLY.                 
TUE...LEFT OVER WRAP-AROUND -SN WILL TAPER OFF BUT LAKE ENHANCEMENT             
WITH H8 TEMPS TO NEAR -10C MAY KEEP MORE SUBSTANTIAL -SHSN GOING FOR            
LOCATIONS FAVORED BY WINDS VEERING TO NW.                                       
WED-SAT...GENERALLY FOLLOWED A BLEND OF THE 00Z/26 ECMWF AND THE                
06Z/26 GFS WITH FAVORABLE NW LES REGIME LINGERING INTO FRI WITH SFC             
RDG SHIFTING INTO THE AREA BY SAT HELPING TO SHUT OFF PCPN.                     
&&                                                                              
.MQT...WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                           
       FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 11 AM CST SUNDAY FOR                 
          MIZ009>012.                                                           
       FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO 12 PM EST SUNDAY FOR                 
          MIZ002-004>006-013-014-084-085.                                       
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
ROLFSON (UPDATE)                                                                
JLB (PREV DISCUSSION)                                                           
</PRE></TT></td>   mi                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI                                     
636 PM EST SAT NOV 26 2005                                                      
.AVIATION...                                                                    
A MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL LIFT NORTHEAST            
INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. PERIODS OF LOW                 
LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION AND MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL AFFECT                     
SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN TONIGHT AND THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY IN ADVANCE OF             
THIS WAVE. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION IS ALREADY RESULTING IN THE             
EXPANSION OF A STRATUS DECK BASED AROUND 4500 FT ACROSS SOUTHERN                
MICHIGAN. THESE CLOUDS WILL EXPAND NORTH AND EAST AND AFFECT ALL THE            
TAF SITES WITHIN THE NEXT ONE TO TWO HOURS. LOOKS LIKE THE BEST LIFT            
WILL ARRIVE INTO SE MICHIGAN IN A SERIES OF WAVES. THE FIRST SHOULD             
ARRIVE DURING THE MORNING AS STRONG LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTS NORTH            
ACROSS THE AREA. THE COMBINATION OF RAIN AND SNOWMELT WILL RESULT IN            
MVFR CEILINGS AND MVFR AND IFR VISIBILITY. THE NEXT AREA OF STRONGER            
LIFT SHOULD ARRIVE LATE IN THE AFTERNOON AND PERSIST THROUGH THE END            
OF THE TAF PERIOD AS THE UPPER WAVE LIFTS ACROSS THE STATE. THE 18Z             
NAM AND GFS INDICATE A BRIEF PERIOD OF VFR CONDITIONS AROUND DETROIT            
IN THE EARLY AFTERNOON BEFORE THE NEXT WAVE ARRIVES...WITH FNT AND              
MBS REMAINING MVFR THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. WILL KEEP CEILINGS AND                
VISIBILITY MVFR LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD. PERSISTENT SURFACE MOISTURE             
ADVECTION OVER THE RECENT SNOWMELT MAY HOWEVER CREATE IFR OR LIFR               
VISIBILITIES TOWARD THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO            
BE MONITORED.                                                                   
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND SUNDAY                                                
SHORTWAVE OVER EASTERN TEXAS HAS MADE THE TURN TO THE                           
NORTHEAST...AND WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES LATE             
TOMORROW. THIS SHORTWAVE WILL DELIVER A NICE SURGE OF GULF MOISTURE             
TO LOWER MICHIGAN TOMORROW...RESULTING IN OVERRUNNING RAINFALL. 12Z             
NAM/GFS 295-290 K ISENTROPIC ANALYSIS SHOWING VARYING LIFT                      
THROUGHOUT THE DAY...MAKING THE TIMING OF RAINFALL A LITTLE                     
DIFFICULT. EVEN WHEN THE LIFT/FORCING IS LACKING...WILL LIKELY SEE              
SOME DRIZZLE WITH 40+ DEW POINTS RIDING OVER THE SNOWCOVER HERE IN              
SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN. THUS...OCCASIONAL RAIN AND FOG SHOULD COVER                 
TOMORROW JUST FINE. HAVE NOTED THE ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS                
SOUTHEAST MISSOURI EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. 12Z NAM DOES INDICATE THE              
SHOWALTER INDEX APPROACHING ZERO BY 12Z SUNDAY ACROSS SOUTHERN LOWER            
MICHIGAN. HOWEVER...WITH THE MAIN LOW LEVEL JET WEST OF THE                     
REGION...WILL KEEP THE MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS OUT...IN LINE WITH              
THE DAY 1 OUTLOOK ISSUED AT 1630Z.                                              
FOLLOWED GFS MOS GUIDANCE FOR TEMPS TOMORROW. HOWEVER...TONIGHT IS A            
DIFFERENT STORY. HAVE GONE 3-6 DEGREES COLDER THAN GUIDANCE. WITH               
LIGHT WINDS AND PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES THIS EVENING...TEMPS SHOULD DIVE            
QUICKLY WITH SNOW COVER AND DEW POINTS STILL HOVERING IN THE MID                
TEENS TO LOWER 20S. 12Z NAM INDICATING 3Z SUNDAY TEMPS IN THE LOWER             
20S ACROSS THE NORTH HALF OF THE CWA WHICH SEEMS REASONABLE...                  
ESPECIALLY WITH TEMPS STILL IN THE UPPER 20S AS OF MID AFTERNOON.               
12Z RUC13 IS EVEN FORECASTING SURFACE TEMPS IN THE TEENS OVER THE               
THUMB REGION. THAT SHOULD NOT HAPPEN UNLESS SKIES ARE CLEAR THIS                
EVENING...WHICH IS NOT IN THE FORECAST DUE TO WARM ADVECTION HIGH               
CLOUDS STREAMING IN FROM THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. THINKING TEMPS                
WILL BE JUST ABOVE FREEZING WHEN RAIN ARRIVES TOMORROW MORNING                  
ACROSS THE NORTH HALF...THUS NO MENTION OF FREEZING RAIN. WARM RAIN             
DROPS (850 MB TEMPS OF 5 C BY 12Z SUNDAY ACROSS NORTHERN THIRD OF               
CWA PER BLEND OF NAM/GFS) WITH A SURFACE TEMP OF 32 DEGREES SHOULD              
NOT CAUSE FREEZING ON CONTACT. NOT TO MENTION SOIL TEMPS ARE STILL              
ABOVE FREEZING UNDERNEATH THE SNOW.                                             
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY                                      
OVERALL FORECAST CHALLENGES REMAIN THE SAME AS STRONG STORM SYSTEM              
WRAPS UP THE WEST...FIRST BRINGING MUCH MILDER AIR IN LOWER MICHIGAN            
EARLY THIS WEEK AS IT FORCES A WARM FRONT NORTH OF THE AREA SUNDAY.             
THEREAFTER...COLD/OCCLUDED FRONT PROGRESSES THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY             
WITH THE ATMOSPHERE...IN GENERAL...STEADILY COOLING THE REMAINDER OF            
THE WEEK (BEFORE ANOTHER SYSTEM RACING ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF              
THE CONUS BRINGS SOME BRIEF MODIFICATION LATE IN THE FORECAST).                 
RAIN STILL LOOKS TO BE A GOOD BET ON MONDAY/MONDAY EVENING AS COLD              
FRONT SLOWLY PUSHES THROUGH THE AREA. THERE IS STILL SOME QUESTION              
AS TO WHETHER THERE WILL BE ANY THUNDER. VERY LITTLE INSTABILITY IS             
PROGGED...AND FORCING/CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT WILL NOT BE GREAT             
GIVEN FACT THAT OVERALL FLOW IS PARALLEL TO THE FRONT. THIS LEAVES              
THE DYNAMIC LIFT FROM THE SYSTEM...WHICH WILL BE DECENT...BUT WITH              
THE CORE OF THE STORM SO FAR WEST...NOT GREAT EITHER. GIVEN THE FACT            
THAT A LOT OF THE "INGREDIENTS" ARE MISSING/LACKING...WILL CONTINUE             
WITH JUST RAIN LIKELY AND NO THUNDER MENTION. DID ADJUST THE TIMING             
AS PROGRESSION OF THE FRONT IS SLOWER AND RAIN APPEARS TO BE A GOOD             
BET INTO MONDAY EVENING (AND LESS OF A LIKELIHOOD ON MONDAY MORNING             
AS WELL).                                                                       
THEREAFTER...THE TRANSITION FROM RAIN TO SNOW BECOMES THE ISSUE AS              
COLDER AIR FILTERS IN MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...ALTHOUGH INTENSITY             
BY THAT TIME WILL BE VERY LIGHT PRECIPITATION (MORE SHOWERY-TYPE).              
WILL ADJUST TIMING OF -RASN MIX TO TUESDAY MORNING AND ALL -SHSN BY             
TUESDAY AFTERNOON AFTER COLLABORATION THIS AFTERNOON.                           
PATTERN REMAINS LARGELY UNSETTLED IN COLD UPPER TROF FOR THE REST OF            
THE FORECAST. WILL ADJUST THE PERIOD WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT TO               
DENOTE A LULL IN THE SNOW SHOWERS WITH JUST A FLURRY MENTION...AND              
THEN BRING THE CHANCE OF MEASURABLE LIGHT SNOW BACK THURSDAY AND                
MORE OR LESS INTO THE WEEKEND AS NEXT SYSTEM SLIDES INTO THE LAKES              
REGION. VERY LITTLE CONFIDENCE IN HOW TO HANDLE DAYS 5-7. SEEMS THE             
BETTER CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW WILL COME IN THE THURSDAY/FRIDAY AREA               
GIVEN TIMING OF THE PACIFIC SYSTEM THAT RIDES INTO THE AREA...AND               
THEN A BRIEF QUIET PERIOD HEADING INTO NEXT WEEKEND. THE PROBLEM IS             
THAT THE ERRORS IN THIS PATTERN COULD EASILY CHANGE THE TIMING OF               
THE SYSTEM (AND SUBSEQUENT ONES) BY A SOLID DAY. WILL TRY NOT TO GET            
TOO CUTE WITH THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME.                                        
&&                                                                              
.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
MI...NONE.                                                                      
LAKE HURON...NONE.                                                              
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.                                                           
MI WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.                                                  
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHORT TERM...SF                                                                 
LONG TERM....DG                                                                 
AVIATION.....CONSIDINE                                                          
YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE            
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).                                    
</PRE></TT></td>   mi                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
410 PM EST SAT NOV 26 2005                                                      
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
MAIN FCST CONCERNS ARE POTENTIAL FOR ICING WITH -FZDZ LATE TONIGHT              
AND SUN MORNING.                                                                
WV IMAGERY...12Z RAOBS AND RUC ANALYSIS INDICATED LINGERING WNW                 
MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW ACRS THE WRN LAKES BTWN THE HUDSON BAY TROF AND            
A RDG INTO THE NRN PLAINS. MAIN FEATURES OF INTEREST WAS THE STRONG             
300/250 MB JET AND ASSOCIATED SHRTWV MOVING THROUGH THE SW CONUS. AT            
THE SFC...A RDG EXTENDED FROM QUEBEC TO NRN MN WHILE A WARM FRONT               
EXTENDED FROM NRN NEB THROUGH CNTRL IA AND NRN IL AHEAD OF                      
DEVELOPING LOW PRES OVER THE PLAINS. DEWPOINTS HAD QUICKLY CLIMBED              
INTO THE 40S FROM KS INTO SE NEB AND 50S OVER OK WITH STRONG SRLY               
FLOW FROM THE GULF. BANDS OF MID LVL WAA CLOUDS HAD ALREADY                     
DEVELOPED ACRS MN/WI AND UPR MI. HOWEVER...WEAK S TO SE FLOW FROM LK            
MI INTO SE UPR MI HAS BROUGHT SOME LOWER CLOUDS AND SOME FLURRIES               
VCNTY KERY.                                                                     
TONIGHT INTO SUN MORNING...WAA WITH CLIMBING 850 MB TEMPS...LOSS OF             
MOISTURE IN THE -8C LYR OR ABV...AND INCREASING SHEAR WILL BE                   
UNFAVORABLE FOR MUCH IN THE WAY OF FLURRIES OVER THE SE THIS                    
EVENING. HOWEVER...CANNOT RULE OUT SOME PATCHY -FZDZ DOWNWIND FROM              
LAKE MICHIGAN AND FARTHER NW WITH UPSLOPE INTO SLIGHTLY HIGHER                  
TERRAIN.                                                                        
LATER TONIGHT...THE NAM/GFS HAVE BEEN REASONABLY CONSISTENT IN                  
BRINGING SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN SFC-850 RH TOWARD THE AREA AS WAA              
STRENGTHENS. WHILE THE MDLS MIGHT BE GENEROUS WITH THE QPF IN                   
SHALLOW MOISTURE REGIME...IT STILL SEEMS THAT THEY HAVE THE RIGHT               
IDEA WITH DECENT POTENTIAL FOR MEASURABLE PCPN WITH BAND OF 290K                
NET ISENTROPIC LIFT MOVING THROUGH. ADDITIONAL LOW LVL OROGRAPHIC               
LIFT WOULD ALSO HELP TO SQUEEZE OUT SOME PCPN. SINCE TEMPS AOA 925              
MB CLIMB ABOVE FREEZING AND PRFL IS DRY AOA -10C...AREAS OF -FZDZ               
SHOULD DEVELOP. EVEN THROUGH DZ SIZE DROPLETS ARE EXPECTED...OF                 
CHOICES AVBL...FZRA ADVY HEADLINE BEST COVERS IMPENDING HAZARDS FROM            
GLAZE ON UNTREATED ROADS/SIDEWALKS. 2M TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO CLIMB              
ABV FREEZING AROUND 14Z-16Z BUT THERE SHOULD BE A LAG IN WARMING                
COLD PAVEMENT AFTER RECENT COLD SPELL. THE KEWEENAW AND FAR EAST CWA            
WERE NOT INCLUDED AS BEST MOISTURE REACHES THOSE AREAS WHEN SFC/2M              
TEMPS CLIMB ABV FREEZING LATER IN THE MORNING.                                  
SUN AFTERNOON INTO SUN NIGHT...GIVEN THE INTENSITY OF THE SHRTWV                
MOVING THROUGH SW AND TYPICAL MDL PERFORMANCE..THE SLOWER                       
STRONGER/GFS WAS PREFERRED COMPARED TO THE NAM. GFS INITIAL VORT MAY            
HAVE SOME CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK BUT NAM/GFS AND THE CMC HINT THAT                 
LEAD SHRTWV MOVING NORTH INTO THE AREA IN THE AFTERNOON WILL BRING              
BETTER CHANCE FOR MORE RAIN SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON OR EVENING.                
WITH VERY STRONG H8 WAA CONTINUING AND H8 DEWPINTS TO NEAR 7C GIVING            
SHOWALTER INDEX CLOSE TO 0C...CANNOT RULE OUT SOME ISOLD                        
TSRA...ESPECIALLY OVER THE SOUTH. WITH RELATIVELY WARM MOIST AIR                
OVER MELTING SNOWPACK...AREAS OF DENSE FOG STILL LOOK                           
LIKELY...ESPECIALLY IN PERIODS WHEN RAIN TAPERS OFF.                            
MON...DRY SLOT MOVES SHOULD MOVE INTO THE W HLF OF UPR MI WITH WARM             
CONVEYOR MOISTURE AND HEAVIER RAIN SHIFTING INTO THE ERN CWA. WILL              
KEEP GOING CATEGORICAL POPS GOING WITH LINGERING TIMING/LOCATION                
UNCERTAINTY OF THESE FEATURES.                                                  
MON NIGHT...MDLS HAVE TRENDED SLOWER WITH THE PROGRESSION OF THE MID            
LVL AND SFC LOW SO CHANGEOVER TO SNOW WAS ADJUSTED ACCORDINGLY.                 
TUE...LEFT OVER WRAP-AROUND -SN WILL TAPER OFF BUT LAKE ENHANCEMENT             
WITH H8 TEMPS TO NEAR -10C MAY KEEP MORE SUBSTANTIAL -SHSN GOING FOR            
LOCATIONS FAVORED BY WINDS VEERING TO NW.                                       
WED-SAT...GENERALLY FOLLOWED A BLEND OF THE 00Z/26 ECMWF AND THE                
06Z/26 GFS WITH FAVORABLE NW LES REGIME LINGERING INTO FRI WITH SFC             
RDG SHIFTING INTO THE AREA BY SAT HELPING TO SHUT OFF PCPN.                     
&&                                                                              
.MQT...                                                                         
FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 11 AM CST SUNDAY FOR                        
MIZ009-MIZ010-MIZ011-MIZ012.                                                    
FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO 12 PM EST SUNDAY FOR                        
MIZ002-MIZ004-MIZ005-MIZ006-MIZ013-MIZ014-MIZ084-MIZ085.                        
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
JLB                                                                             
</PRE></TT></td>   mi                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI                                     
239 PM EST SAT NOV 26 2005                                                      
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND SUNDAY                                                
SHORTWAVE OVER EASTERN TEXAS HAS MADE THE TURN TO THE                           
NORTHEAST...AND WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES LATE             
TOMORROW. THIS SHORTWAVE WILL DELIVER A NICE SURGE OF GULF MOISTURE             
TO LOWER MICHIGAN TOMORROW...RESULTING IN OVERRUNNING RAINFALL. 12Z             
NAM/GFS 295-290 K ISENTROPIC ANALYSIS SHOWING VARYING LIFT                      
THROUGHOUT THE DAY...MAKING THE TIMING OF RAINFALL A LITTLE                     
DIFFICULT. EVEN WHEN THE LIFT/FORCING IS LACKING...WILL LIKELY SEE              
SOME DRIZZLE WITH 40+ DEW POINTS RIDING OVER THE SNOWCOVER HERE IN              
SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN. THUS...OCCASIONAL RAIN AND FOG SHOULD COVER                 
TOMORROW JUST FINE. HAVE NOTED THE ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS                
SOUTHEAST MISSOURI EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. 12Z NAM DOES INDICATE THE              
SHOWALTER INDEX APPROACHING ZERO BY 12Z SUNDAY ACROSS SOUTHERN LOWER            
MICHIGAN. HOWEVER...WITH THE MAIN LOW LEVEL JET WEST OF THE                     
REGION...WILL KEEP THE MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS OUT...IN LINE WITH              
THE DAY 1 OUTLOOK ISSUED AT 1630Z.                                              
FOLLOWED GFS MOS GUIDANCE FOR TEMPS TOMORROW. HOWEVER...TONIGHT IS A            
DIFFERENT STORY. HAVE GONE 3-6 DEGREES COLDER THAN GUIDANCE. WITH               
LIGHT WINDS AND PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES THIS EVENING...TEMPS SHOULD DIVE            
QUICKLY WITH SNOW COVER AND DEW POINTS STILL HOVERING IN THE MID                
TEENS TO LOWER 20S. 12Z NAM INDICATING 3Z SUNDAY TEMPS IN THE LOWER             
20S ACROSS THE NORTH HALF OF THE CWA WHICH SEEMS REASONABLE...                  
ESPECIALLY WITH TEMPS STILL IN THE UPPER 20S AS OF MID AFTERNOON.               
12Z RUC13 IS EVEN FORECASTING SURFACE TEMPS IN THE TEENS OVER THE               
THUMB REGION. THAT SHOULD NOT HAPPEN UNLESS SKIES ARE CLEAR THIS                
EVENING...WHICH IS NOT IN THE FORECAST DUE TO WARM ADVECTION HIGH               
CLOUDS STREAMING IN FROM THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. THINKING TEMPS                
WILL BE JUST ABOVE FREEZING WHEN RAIN ARRIVES TOMORROW MORNING                  
ACROSS THE NORTH HALF...THUS NO MENTION OF FREEZING RAIN. WARM RAIN             
DROPS (850 MB TEMPS OF 5 C BY 12Z SUNDAY ACROSS NORTHERN THIRD OF               
CWA PER BLEND OF NAM/GFS) WITH A SURFACE TEMP OF 32 DEGREES SHOULD              
NOT CAUSE FREEZING ON CONTACT. NOT TO MENTION SOIL TEMPS ARE STILL              
ABOVE FREEZING UNDERNEATH THE SNOW.                                             
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY                                      
OVERALL FORECAST CHALLENGES REMAIN THE SAME AS STRONG STORM SYSTEM              
WRAPS UP THE WEST...FIRST BRINGING MUCH MILDER AIR IN LOWER MICHIGAN            
EARLY THIS WEEK AS IT FORCES A WARM FRONT NORTH OF THE AREA SUNDAY.             
THEREAFTER...COLD/OCCLUDED FRONT PROGRESSES THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY             
WITH THE ATMOSPHERE...IN GENERAL...STEADILY COOLING THE REMAINDER OF            
THE WEEK (BEFORE ANOTHER SYSTEM RACING ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF              
THE CONUS BRINGS SOME BRIEF MODIFICATION LATE IN THE FORECAST).                 
RAIN STILL LOOKS TO BE A GOOD BET ON MONDAY/MONDAY EVENING AS COLD              
FRONT SLOWLY PUSHES THROUGH THE AREA. THERE IS STILL SOME QUESTION              
AS TO WHETHER THERE WILL BE ANY THUNDER. VERY LITTLE INSTABILITY IS             
PROGGED...AND FORCING/CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT WILL NOT BE GREAT             
GIVEN FACT THAT OVERALL FLOW IS PARALLEL TO THE FRONT. THIS LEAVES              
THE DYNAMIC LIFT FROM THE SYSTEM...WHICH WILL BE DECENT...BUT WITH              
THE CORE OF THE STORM SO FAR WEST...NOT GREAT EITHER. GIVEN THE FACT            
THAT A LOT OF THE "INGREDIENTS" ARE MISSING/LACKING...WILL CONTINUE             
WITH JUST RAIN LIKELY AND NO THUNDER MENTION. DID ADJUST THE TIMING             
AS PROGRESSION OF THE FRONT IS SLOWER AND RAIN APPEARS TO BE A GOOD             
BET INTO MONDAY EVENING (AND LESS OF A LIKELIHOOD ON MONDAY MORNING             
AS WELL).                                                                       
THEREAFTER...THE TRANSITION FROM RAIN TO SNOW BECOMES THE ISSUE AS              
COLDER AIR FILTERS IN MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...ALTHOUGH INTENSITY             
BY THAT TIME WILL BE VERY LIGHT PRECIPITATION (MORE SHOWERY-TYPE).              
WILL ADJUST TIMING OF -RASN MIX TO TUESDAY MORNING AND ALL -SHSN BY             
TUESDAY AFTERNOON AFTER COLLABORATION THIS AFTERNOON.                           
PATTERN REMAINS LARGELY UNSETTLED IN COLD UPPER TROF FOR THE REST OF            
THE FORECAST. WILL ADJUST THE PERIOD WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT TO               
DENOTE A LULL IN THE SNOW SHOWERS WITH JUST A FLURRY MENTION...AND              
THEN BRING THE CHANCE OF MEASURABLE LIGHT SNOW BACK THURSDAY AND                
MORE OR LESS INTO THE WEEKEND AS NEXT SYSTEM SLIDES INTO THE LAKES              
REGION. VERY LITTLE CONFIDENCE IN HOW TO HANDLE DAYS 5-7. SEEMS THE             
BETTER CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW WILL COME IN THE THURSDAY/FRIDAY AREA               
GIVEN TIMING OF THE PACIFIC SYSTEM THAT RIDES INTO THE AREA...AND               
THEN A BRIEF QUIET PERIOD HEADING INTO NEXT WEEKEND. THE PROBLEM IS             
THAT THE ERRORS IN THIS PATTERN COULD EASILY CHANGE THE TIMING OF               
THE SYSTEM (AND SUBSEQUENT ONES) BY A SOLID DAY. WILL TRY NOT TO GET            
TOO CUTE WITH THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME.                                        
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION... (ISSUED 1200 PM EST SAT NOV 26 2005)                        
AVIATION...                                                                     
THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE IS DETERMINE WHEN MVFR AND EVENTUALLY               
IFR VSBY'S AND CEILINGS ARRIVE. NO CONCERNS THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS            
EVENING AS WE WILL BE CLEAR-SCT (BELOW 20000 FEET) ONCE MID DECK                
(6000 FEET) OVER FNT-MBS LIFTS NORTH. SUNSHINE COUPLED WITH MAXES               
CLIMBING ABOVE FREEZING WILL LEAD TO SNOWMELT...WHICH WILL ADD SOME             
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO THE BOUNDARY LAYER. WITH PARTLY CLOUDY TO                 
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THIS EVENING...A QUICK DROP IN TEMPERATURES WILL             
ALLOW THE TEMP/DEW POINT SPREAD TO DROP TO 3 OR LESS. THAT WILL                 
PROBABLY NOT BE GOOD ENOUGH...WILL HAVE TO RELY MORE ON MOISTURE                
ADVECTION FOG (+32 DEGREE DEW POINTS OVERRUNNING SNOW PACK)...WHICH             
DOES NOT LOOK TO OCCUR UNTIL TOMORROW MORNING...SPREADING FROM SOUTH            
TO NORTH. BOTH GFS/NAM INDICATING VERY LOW SURFACE CONDENSATION                 
PRESSURE DEFICITS. WILL BE CARRYING 2SM PREVAILING VSBY'S TOMORROW              
WITH CEILINGS AT 1500 FEET. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF CONDITIONS                
ENDED UP WORSE...ESPECIALLY CEILINGS WHICH MAY END UP BEING 500                 
FEET.                                                                           
&&                                                                              
.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
MI...NONE.                                                                      
LAKE HURON...NONE.                                                              
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.                                                           
MI WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.                                                  
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHORT TERM...SF                                                                 
LONG TERM....DG                                                                 
AVIATION.....SF                                                                 
YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE            
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).                                    
</PRE></TT></td>   mi                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI                                             
1149 AM EST SAT NOV 26 2005                                                     
.UPDATE...RELATIVELY BENIGN WEATHER ACROSS NORTHERN MICHIGAN TODAY              
WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE REGION. NONETHELESS...A FEW                   
INTERESTING ITEMS TO TALK ABOUT. FIST OFF...LINGERING LAKE                      
CONVECTION STILL PRESENT ACROSS NRN LAKE MICHIGAN. EARLY MORNING                
LAND BREEZE COMPONENT ABLE TO PUSH MOST OF THE CONVECTION OFFSHORE.             
HOWEVER...UNDER THE LIGHT WIND REGIME...RADAR RETURN PATTERN AND                
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALING A SMALL LAKE VORTEX TAKING SHAPE            
ACROSS FAR NRN LAKE MICHIGAN...BEGINNING TO DRIFT NORTH INTO WESTERN            
MACK COUNTY.                                                                    
MEANWHILE...12Z UPPER CHARTS SHOWING WEAK MID LEVEL WARM ADVECTION              
MAX AND TIGHT THERMAL GRADIENT DRAPED OUT ACROSS NRN MICHIGAN.                  
SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALING ASSOCIATED BAND OF MID CLOUD STRETCHING             
ACROSS CENTRAL LOWER MICHIGAN...WHILE KAPX RADAR SHOWING A BROAD                
AREA OF VERY LIGHT MID LEVEL RETURNS ACROSS THIS AREA AND A FEW                 
FLURRIES REPORTED IN SFC OBS (CAD REPORTED -SN THROUGH 14Z OR SO).              
RADAR RETURN PATTERN BEGINNING TO SHRINK UP HOWEVER AS BULK OF                  
SYNOPTIC MOISTURE CONTINUES TO THIN OUT.                                        
FOR THE AFTERNOON...WARM ADVECTION EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THIS                    
AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT SHIFTING INTO THE LOWER LEVELS AS WE HEAD             
INTO THE EVENING. HOWEVER...MODEL AND SATELLITE DATA BOTH SUGGEST               
SYNOPTIC MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO THIN OUT THROUGH THE AFTERNOON               
AND WE SHOULD SEE AN END TO LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES WITH INCREASING                 
SUNSHINE ACROSS LOWER MICHIGAN. BUT...WILL STRETCH THE SMALL CHANCE             
FOR LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES INTO THE EARLY             
AFTERNOON HOURS TO COVER WHAT/S LEFT.                                           
SECONDLY...LAKE CONVECTION. THERMODYNAMICALLY SPEAKING CONDITIONS               
STILL DECENT FOR LAKE EFFECT...WITH 850 MB TEMP OF -12C ON MORNING              
APX SOUNDING...SUFFICIENT DELTA T/S AND RESPECTABLE REGIME FOR LARGE            
SNOWFLAKES. UNDER LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW...LAKE VORTEX OVER NRN LAKE              
MICHIGAN HAS A WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY THIS AFTERNOON TO PRODUCE                  
DECENT SNOWFALL RATES AS IT DRIFTS UP INTO WESTERN MACK COUNTY.                 
THESE FEATURES ALWAYS TRICKY AS THEY CAN QUICKLY RACK UP ADVISORY               
CRITERIA ACCUMULATIONS. BUT GIVEN THE THINNING SYNOPTIC MOISTURE AND            
FORECAST WARMING IN THE LOWER LAYERS...DON/T THINK THIS WILL BE THE             
CASE TODAY. WILL HOWEVER EXPAND LIKELY POPS ACROSS ALL OF WESTERN               
MACK COUNTY FOR THE AFTERNOON WITH AROUND AN INCH OF ACCUMULATION.              
BUT WILL NEED TO MONITOR PROGRESS OF THIS FEATURE AND MAKE A FEW                
CALLS THIS AFTERNOON TO SEE WHAT/S GOING ON.                                    
ADAM                                                                            
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED AT 810 AM EST SAT NOV 26 2005                         
UPDATE...CANCELED LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY AND WARNING FOR                     
CHARLEVOIX AND EMMET COUNTIES. LAKE EFFECT SNOW BANDS PULLED                    
OFFSHORE AND NO LONGER POSE A THREAT FOR ACCUMULATING LAKE EFFECT               
SNOW. SCATTERED LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS WILL HOWEVER...STILL AFFECT THE              
IMMEDIATE LAKESHORE AREAS AROUND NRN LAKE MICHIGAN AND LAKE HURON.              
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION ISSUED AT 445 AM SAT NOV 26 2005....                           
DISCUSSION...SFC/SATELLITE/RUC AND UPPER AIR ANALYSIS SHOWING BROAD             
UPPER TROUGH ENGULFING THE NE CONUS WITH RIDGING EXITING THE ROCKIES            
IN ADVANCE OF ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH NOW PLOWING INTO THE PAC NW. SRN             
STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALSO EVIDENT ACROSS SRN TEXAS. SFC LOW                  
PRESSURE SEEN DEVELOPING IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES...WITH A WARM                
FRONT EXTENDING FROM NRN NE...INTO CENTRAL IL/INDY. ISENTROPIC                  
ASCENT/WAA NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT HAS BEEN PRODUCING LIGHT SNOWS               
ACROSS CENTRAL/SRN LOWER MICHIGAN...ENHANCED BY SEVERAL FAVORABLE               
LAKE EFFECT PARAMETERS. HIGH PRESSURE RESIDED ON THE EAST COAST...              
AND OUTSIDE OF LAKE TROUGHING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES...RIDGE AXIS               
STRETCHED BACK ACROSS THE CWA. SOME OF THE LIGHT WAA SNOWS WERE                 
SCRAPING THE SRN CWA WITH 3-5SM VISIBILITIES...BUT THE ADDITIONAL               
MID LEVEL MOISTURE SEEN ON SATELLITE (AHEAD OF VORT MAX IN CENTRAL              
UPPER) ARE CERTAINLY AIDING THE SNOWFALL INTENSITIES IN LIGHT (10KT)            
SW FLOW/LAKE EFFECT BANDS THAT WERE HUGGING OUR OUR LAKE MICHIGAN               
SHORELINE. RADAR HAS BEEN HINTING AT LAKE EFFECT TRYING TO MOVE                 
OFFSHORE IN SOME LOCALES AS THE WIND REGIME IS LIGHT AND EXPECTED TO            
WEAKEN A BIT FURTHER. SO...WITH THE NORTHWARD ADVECTION OF THE MID              
LEVEL MOISTURE...ONE HAS TO ASK THE QUESTION...WHAT WILL BE THE NET             
SNOWFALL TOTALS FOR THOSE AREAS IN THE ADVISORIES/WARNINGS ALONG THE            
LAKE MICHIGAN SHORE? AND TO THROW IN ANOTHER WRENCH INTO THE                    
FORECAST...WILL MID LAKE VORTICES HAVE ANY IMPACT ON NRN MICHIGAN               
WEATHER?...AS THERE IS ONE SPINNING OUT OVER WHITEFISH BAY ATTM.                
THIS JUST ONE OF THE CONCERNS IN THIS FORECAST PACKAGE. ADDITIONAL              
FORECAST CONCERNS...INCLUDE ENDING THE WAA SNOWFALL TODAY...AND DO              
WE END LAKE EFFECT TODAY AS WINDS SHIFT MORE SRLY/MAYBE                         
SOUTHEASTERLY WITH WARM FRONT MOVING NORTHWARD? THAT IS JUST TODAY.             
TONIGHT ONWARD...WE ARE FACED WITH PRECIP CONCERNS BEGINNING AS                 
DRIZZLE OR FREEZING DRIZZLE LATE TONIGHT BEFORE DEEPER MOISTURE                 
ADVECTS IN AND PRECIP AND FOG ISSUES BEGIN IN EARNEST. COLDER AIR               
WRAPS BACK IN BEHIND STRONG SFC LOW (CULPRIT OF THE RAIN CHANCES)               
MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT FOR SNOW TO ENTER THE FORECAST AGAIN. THE UP AND            
DOWN WEATHER SAGA OF NRN MICHIGAN CONTINUES.                                    
TODAY...CURRENT LIGHT SNOWFALL IN ISENTROPIC REGIME ON THE 295K SFC             
CONTINUES TO SLOWLY INCREASE ACROSS THE CWA IN INCREASING H7-H5                 
-DIVQ AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE WHICH WILL SHOOT THROUGH THE TIP OF THE                
MITT THIS MORNING. SATELLITE VERIFIES THAT MID LEVEL MOISTURE WILL              
GET STRIPPED OUT BY 12Z THIS MORNING...BUT NORTHWARD EXPANSION OF               
THIS RH HAS LED TO INTENSIFICATION OF THE SW SNOW BANDS CLINGING TO             
THE LAKE MICHIGAN SHORELINE. REPORT OUT OF MANISTEE HAS RESULTED IN             
NEAR 6 INCHES OF SNOWFALL...AND HAS LED TO A HEAVY SNOW WARNING FOR             
MANISTEE AND LEELANAU COUNTIES DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. BANDS                
STILL LOOK LIKE THEY ARE TRYING TO SNEAK OFFSHORE...THE TREND BEING             
SET FROM THE SOUTH AROUND MANISTEE. WINDS WILL SHIFT MORE FROM THE              
SOUTH EARLY THIS MORNING..AND WHEN COMBINED WITH THE LAND BREEZE                
COMPONENT...SHOULD RESULT IN CHIPPEWA SEEING NO FURTHER TROUBLES                
WITH LAKE EFFECT. WILL END ADVISORIES AT FORECAST ISSUANCE. FOR                 
EMMET WILL HAVE TO WATCH RADAR AND SEE...AS IT IS A TIMING ISSUE                
WITH MOISTURE AND LAND BREEZE. FOR MACKINAC COUNTY OF EASTERN UPPER             
IT IS A BIT MORE DIFFICULT. SRN PORTIONS AROUND SAINT IGNACE HAVE               
ALREADY BEEN GETTING SNOW AND WINDS WILL BE TURNING MORE SOUTHERLY.             
HOWEVER...LAND BREEZE MORE DEVELOPED IN THIS AREA...AND MOISTURE                
WILL BE STRIPPING OUT BY 12Z. WILL ALSO HAVE TO WATCH FOR MID LAKE              
VORTICES OVER THE NRN LAKES...OF WHICH MIXING INTO A SOUTHERLY FLOW             
COULD BRING A BRIEF SHOT OF HEAVY SNOW INTO THE WESTERN PART OF THE             
COUNTY. FEELING IS THAT I WILL NEED TO EXTEND LAKE EFFECT SNOW                  
ADVISORIES FOR MACKINAC COUNTY INTO A FEW HOURS AFTER DAYBREAK THIS             
MORNING...AS WELL AS THE LES WARNING FOR EMMET...AS LONG AS RADAR               
STILL SHOWS BANDS MAKING IT INLAND...BECAUSE WITH H8 TEMPS STILL                
>12C THROUGH 18Z...H9-H7 RH >75% THROUGH 15Z ALONG EXTERNAL FORCING             
AHEAD OF AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE...HEAVIER SNOW CAN CONTINUE. THE              
OVERALL TREND BY AFTERNOON WILL BE A DECREASE IN ACTIVITY. THIS                 
ESPECIALLY TRUE BY LATE AFTERNOON...AS AN EASTERLY COMPONENT IS                 
THROWN IN...AND FETCH LENGTHS ARE SHORT...AND MOISTURE IS DOWN TO               
50-60% AT H9-H7. GOING BACK TO THE ISENTROPIC ASCENT/LIGHT SNOWS...             
LOOK FOR AN END ACROSS THE NE LOWER BY LATE MORNING. SNOWFALL                   
ACCUMULATIONS WITH THIS WILL BE LIGHT...STRUGGLING TO GET AN INCH               
EXCEPT FOR THE MOST SRN AREAS OF THE CWA...MAINLY SOUTH OF M-55.                
BEST WARMING DOES NOT ARRIVE THIS AFTERNOON WITH WARM FRONT STILL TO            
OUR SOUTH...HIGHS WITH THE SNOW COVER WILL BE COOL...IN THE                     
TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...1000-850MB FLOW SLIGHTLY EAST OF SOUTH THIS                
EVENING...AND THERE WILL BE A BRIEF PERIOD WHERE OVER LAKE                      
INSTABILITY REMAINS SUFFICIENT BEFORE STRONG WARMING ENSUES WITH                
ARRIVAL OF WARM FRONT. WILL CARRY A SMALL CHANCE OF SCATTERED                   
FLURRIES FOR SOUTHERN MACKINAC COUNTY. OTHERWISE...WE WILL HAVE A               
BRIEF LULL IN WEATHER UNTIL THE LATE HOURS PAST MIDNIGHT WHEN LOW               
LEVEL MOISTURE SURGES IN WITH THE WARM FRONT...WITH SATURATION                  
OCCURRING UP TO 5-6KFT AND SOME SHEAR NOTED OF FORECAST SOUNDINGS AT            
THE TOP OF THIS MOIST LAYER. THE ENTIRE MOIST LAYER WILL BE ABOVE               
FREEZING UNDER THE RAPID WARMING...WHILE SFC TEMPS WILL HAVE RISEN              
TO THE UPPER 20S AND LOWER HALF OF THE 30S BY DAYBREAK. CAN SEE MOST            
AREAS WITH PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE LATE TONIGHT WITH THE EXCEPTION              
FOR SOME OF THE COASTAL AREAS THAT GET AN ADDED BOOST IN TEMP DUE TO            
THE WARMER LAKES. THIS SHOULD BE A RATHER BRIEF PERIOD OF DRIZZLE               
HOWEVER...AS AFOREMENTIONED SRN STREAM TROUGH (OUT OF SRN TEXAS)                
LIFTS NORTHEASTWARD AND GET ENTANGLED WITH SHARPENING UPPER TROUGH              
EXITING THE ROCKIES. CYCLOGENESIS ENSUES...AND DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW              
DEVELOPS WITH THE GULF OF MEXICO WIDE OPEN. TREMENDOUS MOISTURE                 
TRANSPORT IS SEEN COMING INTO NRN MICHIGAN WITH PWATS AROUND AN INCH            
BY AFTERNOON. WENT AHEAD AND WENT CATEGORICAL WITH THE PRECIP                   
CHANCES (IT WILL RAIN)...AND STARTED IT SOONER...BY MID/LATE                    
MORNING. LOTS OF SNOW COVER TO GET RID OF...AND BETWEEN MELTING AND             
SFC TD'S RISING INTO THE UPPER 30S (POSSIBLY LOW 40S)...FOG LOOKS               
LIKE A VERY GOOD BET. DID NOT THROW IN MENTION OF DENSE FOG JUST                
YET...BUT CAN SEE IT ENTERING THE FORECAST IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF                
FORECAST ISSUANCES.                                                             
SUNDAY NIGHT...THERE ARE QUESTIONS REVOLVING AROUND WHAT PRECIP                 
CHANCES ARE IN THIS PERIOD. DEEPER MOISTURE/LIFT...AS IT STANDS                 
RIGHT NOW...REMAIN ACROSS EASTERN UPPER IN THE EVENING...BUT WE WILL            
HAVE SOME AMOUNT OF DRY SLOTTING ARRIVING DURING THE NIGHT. COULD               
SEE A CHANGE BACK TO DRIZZLE IN SOME AREAS...BUT WE WILL ALSO BE ON             
THE VERGE OF ANOTHER SHOT OF DEEPER MOISTURE SCRAPING AT THE WESTERN            
CWA BY DAYBREAK. WILL THEREFORE KEEP LIKELY CHANCES OF RAIN ATTM. IT            
WILL AT LEAST BE DAMP/WET AND PRECIP LOOKS LIKELY FOR AT LEAST A                
PERIOD OF TIME FOR ALL AREAS. FOG WORDING TO REMAIN IN THE FORECAST             
FOR SURE.                                                                       
MONDAY ONWARD...MODELS REMAIN IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH LIFTING UPPER            
LOW CENTER/TROUGH ACROSS NRN MICHIGAN BY TUESDAY MORNING. SFC LOW               
PASSES TO OUR NW MONDAY NIGHT. THERE LOOKS TO BE A TIME OF DRYING               
ALOFT (POSSIBLY BRINGING DRIZZLE BACK INTO THE PICTURE)...BEFORE                
COLDER AIR CONTINUING TO ADVECT INTO TUESDAY FOR A CHANGE TO RAIN               
AND SNOW LATE MONDAY NIGHT...THEN JUST SNOW CHANCES FOR TUESDAY.                
NO OTHER CHANGES TO THE FORECAST.   SMD                                         
&&                                                                              
.APX...WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</PRE></TT></td>   mi                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
1036 AM EST SAT NOV 26 2005                                                     
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
THE MAIN CONCERN WITH THIS FORECAST UPDATE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR LAKE            
EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON.                                             
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC/NAM SHOWING LONGWAVE TROUGH EXTENDING               
FROM A LOW OVER HUDSON BAY SOUTH INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. A WEAK             
SHORTWAVE ROTATING THROUGH THE BASE OF THIS TROUGH IS SLIDING ACROSS            
EASTERN U.P. A RIDGE OVER THE DAKOTAS IS PUSHING THIS SHORTWAVE                 
EAST. SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWING A LOW OVER WESTERN NEBRASKA WITH A               
WARM FRONT EXTENDING EAST THROUGH IOWA INTO NORTHERN OHIO RIVER                 
VALLEY. LAKE-850MB DELTA-T'S OVER LAKE SUPERIOR THIS MORING ARE                 
AROUND 16C. THIS IS SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES TO PRODUCE LAKE            
EFFECT SNOWS...WHICH ACCORDING TO KMQT-88D AND VISIBILE SATELLITE               
SHOW ARE OCCURRING OVER EASTERN LAKES SUPERIOR. THE WINDS OVER                  
EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR ARE OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST AND ARE MOVING THESE             
SHOWERS NORTHWEST. ANOTHER AREA OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS ARE OVER            
THE NORTHERN BAY OF GREEN BAY AND NORTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN.                       
THE SHORTWAVE OVER THE EASTERN U.P. WILL EDGE INTO EASTERN ONTARIO              
THIS AFTERNOON. ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT                     
SOUTHEAST ALONG THE NORTHEAST SHORE OF LAKE SUPERIOR. DELTA-T'S WILL            
LOWER BY 2C THIS AFTERNOON. LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE WILL CONTINUE OVER            
EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR. LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE SOUTH.            
THUS LES SHOULD CONTINUE OVER NORTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN AND THE                    
NORTHERN BAY OF GREEN BAY. THIS WILL SPREAD INTO EASTERN U.P.                   
OTHERWISE...DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS MOST OF THE REST OF              
THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON. WHAT SNOW DOES OCCUR WILL BE LIGHT            
AS THERE WILL BE VERY LITTLE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE. I PLAN TO MAKE              
VERY LITTLE CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST...MAINLY TWEAKING THE                 
FIRST PERIOD WORDING.                                                           
THE OVERNIGHT FORECAST WILL BE A LITTLE MORE COMPLICATED MAINLY WITH            
THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG/DRIZZLE AND LOW CLOUDS. THIS I WILL LEAVE                 
UNTIL I HAVE HAD A BETTER LOOK AT THE NEW MODELS.                               
&&                                                                              
.MQT...WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
DLG                                                                             
</PRE></TT></td>   mi                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI                                             
810 AM EST SAT NOV 26 2005                                                      
.UPDATE...CANCELED LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY AND WARNING FOR                    
CHARLEVOIX AND EMMET COUNTIES. LAKE EFFECT SNOW BANDS PULLED                    
OFFSHORE AND NO LONGER POSE A THREAT FOR ACCUMULATING LAKE EFFECT               
SNOW. SCATTERED LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS WILL HOWEVER...STILL AFFECT THE              
IMMEDIATE LAKESHORE AREAS AROUND NRN LAKE MICHIGAN AND LAKE HURON.              
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION ISSUED AT 445 AM SAT NOV 26 2005....                           
DISCUSSION...SFC/SATELLITE/RUC AND UPPER AIR ANALYSIS SHOWING BROAD             
UPPER TROUGH ENGULFING THE NE CONUS WITH RIDGING EXITING THE ROCKIES            
IN ADVANCE OF ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH NOW PLOWING INTO THE PAC NW. SRN             
STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALSO EVIDENT ACROSS SRN TEXAS. SFC LOW                  
PRESSURE SEEN DEVELOPING IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES...WITH A WARM                
FRONT EXTENDING FROM NRN NE...INTO CENTRAL IL/INDY. ISENTROPIC                  
ASCENT/WAA NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT HAS BEEN PRODUCING LIGHT SNOWS               
ACROSS CENTRAL/SRN LOWER MICHIGAN...ENHANCED BY SEVERAL FAVORABLE               
LAKE EFFECT PARAMETERS. HIGH PRESSURE RESIDED ON THE EAST COAST...              
AND OUTSIDE OF LAKE TROUGHING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES...RIDGE AXIS               
STRETCHED BACK ACROSS THE CWA. SOME OF THE LIGHT WAA SNOWS WERE                 
SCRAPING THE SRN CWA WITH 3-5SM VISIBILITIES...BUT THE ADDITIONAL               
MID LEVEL MOISTURE SEEN ON SATELLITE (AHEAD OF VORT MAX IN CENTRAL              
UPPER) ARE CERTAINLY AIDING THE SNOWFALL INTENSITIES IN LIGHT (10KT)            
SW FLOW/LAKE EFFECT BANDS THAT WERE HUGGING OUR OUR LAKE MICHIGAN               
SHORELINE. RADAR HAS BEEN HINTING AT LAKE EFFECT TRYING TO MOVE                 
OFFSHORE IN SOME LOCALES AS THE WIND REGIME IS LIGHT AND EXPECTED TO            
WEAKEN A BIT FURTHER. SO...WITH THE NORTHWARD ADVECTION OF THE MID              
LEVEL MOISTURE...ONE HAS TO ASK THE QUESTION...WHAT WILL BE THE NET             
SNOWFALL TOTALS FOR THOSE AREAS IN THE ADVISORIES/WARNINGS ALONG THE            
LAKE MICHIGAN SHORE? AND TO THROW IN ANOTHER WRENCH INTO THE                    
FORECAST...WILL MID LAKE VORTICES HAVE ANY IMPACT ON NRN MICHIGAN               
WEATHER?...AS THERE IS ONE SPINNING OUT OVER WHITEFISH BAY ATTM.                
THIS JUST ONE OF THE CONCERNS IN THIS FORECAST PACKAGE. ADDITIONAL              
FORECAST CONCERNS...INCLUDE ENDING THE WAA SNOWFALL TODAY...AND DO              
WE END LAKE EFFECT TODAY AS WINDS SHIFT MORE SRLY/MAYBE                         
SOUTHEASTERLY WITH WARM FRONT MOVING NORTHWARD? THAT IS JUST TODAY.             
TONIGHT ONWARD...WE ARE FACED WITH PRECIP CONCERNS BEGINNING AS                 
DRIZZLE OR FREEZING DRIZZLE LATE TONIGHT BEFORE DEEPER MOISTURE                 
ADVECTS IN AND PRECIP AND FOG ISSUES BEGIN IN EARNEST. COLDER AIR               
WRAPS BACK IN BEHIND STRONG SFC LOW (CULPRIT OF THE RAIN CHANCES)               
MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT FOR SNOW TO ENTER THE FORECAST AGAIN. THE UP AND            
DOWN WEATHER SAGA OF NRN MICHIGAN CONTINUES.                                    
TODAY...CURRENT LIGHT SNOWFALL IN ISENTROPIC REGIME ON THE 295K SFC             
CONTINUES TO SLOWLY INCREASE ACROSS THE CWA IN INCREASING H7-H5                 
-DIVQ AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE WHICH WILL SHOOT THROUGH THE TIP OF THE                
MITT THIS MORNING. SATELLITE VERIFIES THAT MID LEVEL MOISTURE WILL              
GET STRIPPED OUT BY 12Z THIS MORNING...BUT NORTHWARD EXPANSION OF               
THIS RH HAS LED TO INTENSIFICATION OF THE SW SNOW BANDS CLINGING TO             
THE LAKE MICHIGAN SHORELINE. REPORT OUT OF MANISTEE HAS RESULTED IN             
NEAR 6 INCHES OF SNOWFALL...AND HAS LED TO A HEAVY SNOW WARNING FOR             
MANISTEE AND LEELANAU COUNTIES DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. BANDS                
STILL LOOK LIKE THEY ARE TRYING TO SNEAK OFFSHORE...THE TREND BEING             
SET FROM THE SOUTH AROUND MANISTEE. WINDS WILL SHIFT MORE FROM THE              
SOUTH EARLY THIS MORNING..AND WHEN COMBINED WITH THE LAND BREEZE                
COMPONENT...SHOULD RESULT IN CHIPPEWA SEEING NO FURTHER TROUBLES                
WITH LAKE EFFECT. WILL END ADVISORIES AT FORECAST ISSUANCE. FOR                 
EMMET WILL HAVE TO WATCH RADAR AND SEE...AS IT IS A TIMING ISSUE                
WITH MOISTURE AND LAND BREEZE. FOR MACKINAC COUNTY OF EASTERN UPPER             
IT IS A BIT MORE DIFFICULT. SRN PORTIONS AROUND SAINT IGNACE HAVE               
ALREADY BEEN GETTING SNOW AND WINDS WILL BE TURNING MORE SOUTHERLY.             
HOWEVER...LAND BREEZE MORE DEVELOPED IN THIS AREA...AND MOISTURE                
WILL BE STRIPPING OUT BY 12Z. WILL ALSO HAVE TO WATCH FOR MID LAKE              
VORTICES OVER THE NRN LAKES...OF WHICH MIXING INTO A SOUTHERLY FLOW             
COULD BRING A BRIEF SHOT OF HEAVY SNOW INTO THE WESTERN PART OF THE             
COUNTY. FEELING IS THAT I WILL NEED TO EXTEND LAKE EFFECT SNOW                  
ADVISORIES FOR MACKINAC COUNTY INTO A FEW HOURS AFTER DAYBREAK THIS             
MORNING...AS WELL AS THE LES WARNING FOR EMMET...AS LONG AS RADAR               
STILL SHOWS BANDS MAKING IT INLAND...BECAUSE WITH H8 TEMPS STILL                
>12C THROUGH 18Z...H9-H7 RH >75% THROUGH 15Z ALONG EXTERNAL FORCING             
AHEAD OF AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE...HEAVIER SNOW CAN CONTINUE. THE              
OVERALL TREND BY AFTERNOON WILL BE A DECREASE IN ACTIVITY. THIS                 
ESPECIALLY TRUE BY LATE AFTERNOON...AS AN EASTERLY COMPONENT IS                 
THROWN IN...AND FETCH LENGTHS ARE SHORT...AND MOISTURE IS DOWN TO               
50-60% AT H9-H7. GOING BACK TO THE ISENTROPIC ASCENT/LIGHT SNOWS...             
LOOK FOR AN END ACROSS THE NE LOWER BY LATE MORNING. SNOWFALL                   
ACCUMULATIONS WITH THIS WILL BE LIGHT...STRUGGLING TO GET AN INCH               
EXCEPT FOR THE MOST SRN AREAS OF THE CWA...MAINLY SOUTH OF M-55.                
BEST WARMING DOES NOT ARRIVE THIS AFTERNOON WITH WARM FRONT STILL TO            
OUR SOUTH...HIGHS WITH THE SNOW COVER WILL BE COOL...IN THE                     
TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...1000-850MB FLOW SLIGHTLY EAST OF SOUTH THIS                
EVENING...AND THERE WILL BE A BRIEF PERIOD WHERE OVER LAKE                      
INSTABILITY REMAINS SUFFICIENT BEFORE STRONG WARMING ENSUES WITH                
ARRIVAL OF WARM FRONT. WILL CARRY A SMALL CHANCE OF SCATTERED                   
FLURRIES FOR SOUTHERN MACKINAC COUNTY. OTHERWISE...WE WILL HAVE A               
BRIEF LULL IN WEATHER UNTIL THE LATE HOURS PAST MIDNIGHT WHEN LOW               
LEVEL MOISTURE SURGES IN WITH THE WARM FRONT...WITH SATURATION                  
OCCURRING UP TO 5-6KFT AND SOME SHEAR NOTED OF FORECAST SOUNDINGS AT            
THE TOP OF THIS MOIST LAYER. THE ENTIRE MOIST LAYER WILL BE ABOVE               
FREEZING UNDER THE RAPID WARMING...WHILE SFC TEMPS WILL HAVE RISEN              
TO THE UPPER 20S AND LOWER HALF OF THE 30S BY DAYBREAK. CAN SEE MOST            
AREAS WITH PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE LATE TONIGHT WITH THE EXCEPTION              
FOR SOME OF THE COASTAL AREAS THAT GET AN ADDED BOOST IN TEMP DUE TO            
THE WARMER LAKES. THIS SHOULD BE A RATHER BRIEF PERIOD OF DRIZZLE               
HOWEVER...AS AFOREMENTIONED SRN STREAM TROUGH (OUT OF SRN TEXAS)                
LIFTS NORTHEASTWARD AND GET ENTANGLED WITH SHARPENING UPPER TROUGH              
EXITING THE ROCKIES. CYCLOGENESIS ENSUES...AND DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW              
DEVELOPS WITH THE GULF OF MEXICO WIDE OPEN. TREMENDOUS MOISTURE                 
TRANSPORT IS SEEN COMING INTO NRN MICHIGAN WITH PWATS AROUND AN INCH            
BY AFTERNOON. WENT AHEAD AND WENT CATEGORICAL WITH THE PRECIP                   
CHANCES (IT WILL RAIN)...AND STARTED IT SOONER...BY MID/LATE                    
MORNING. LOTS OF SNOW COVER TO GET RID OF...AND BETWEEN MELTING AND             
SFC TD'S RISING INTO THE UPPER 30S (POSSIBLY LOW 40S)...FOG LOOKS               
LIKE A VERY GOOD BET. DID NOT THROW IN MENTION OF DENSE FOG JUST                
YET...BUT CAN SEE IT ENTERING THE FORECAST IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF                
FORECAST ISSUANCES.                                                             
SUNDAY NIGHT...THERE ARE QUESTIONS REVOLVING AROUND WHAT PRECIP                 
CHANCES ARE IN THIS PERIOD. DEEPER MOISTURE/LIFT...AS IT STANDS                 
RIGHT NOW...REMAIN ACROSS EASTERN UPPER IN THE EVENING...BUT WE WILL            
HAVE SOME AMOUNT OF DRY SLOTTING ARRIVING DURING THE NIGHT. COULD               
SEE A CHANGE BACK TO DRIZZLE IN SOME AREAS...BUT WE WILL ALSO BE ON             
THE VERGE OF ANOTHER SHOT OF DEEPER MOISTURE SCRAPING AT THE WESTERN            
CWA BY DAYBREAK. WILL THEREFORE KEEP LIKELY CHANCES OF RAIN ATTM. IT            
WILL AT LEAST BE DAMP/WET AND PRECIP LOOKS LIKELY FOR AT LEAST A                
PERIOD OF TIME FOR ALL AREAS. FOG WORDING TO REMAIN IN THE FORECAST             
FOR SURE.                                                                       
MONDAY ONWARD...MODELS REMAIN IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH LIFTING UPPER            
LOW CENTER/TROUGH ACROSS NRN MICHIGAN BY TUESDAY MORNING. SFC LOW               
PASSES TO OUR NW MONDAY NIGHT. THERE LOOKS TO BE A TIME OF DRYING               
ALOFT (POSSIBLY BRINGING DRIZZLE BACK INTO THE PICTURE)...BEFORE                
COLDER AIR CONTINUING TO ADVECT INTO TUESDAY FOR A CHANGE TO RAIN               
AND SNOW LATE MONDAY NIGHT...THEN JUST SNOW CHANCES FOR TUESDAY.                
NO OTHER CHANGES TO THE FORECAST.   SMD                                         
&&                                                                              
.APX...WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</PRE></TT></td>   mi                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN                              
913 PM CST SAT NOV 26 2005                                                      
.UPDATE...                                                                      
LO CLDS/PCPN HAVING A DIFFICULT TIME GETTING GOING THIS EVE IN                  
VICINITY OF THE WARM FRONT...CURRENTLY STRETCHING FROM W CNTRL KS               
ENEWRD THRU CNTRL IA. CURRENT SPLIT CHANNEL SAT IMAGERY SHOWING A               
FEW POCKETS OF LOWER CLDS ACRS ERN NE AND CNTRL IA...BUT SFC OBS                
SHOWING CEILINGS/MIN CLD HTS OF ONLY ABOUT 3 KFT.                               
TEMPS ACRS THE FA HAVE BEEN SLOWLY DROPPING...WITH THE WARM FRONT               
MAKING ONLY SLGT NWRD PROGRESS AND THE LO CLDS SLOW TO DEVELOP.                 
EXPECT THIS TREND WILL CONT UNTIL BOTH OF THESE TRENDS ARE                      
REVERSED. THE 00Z NAM/RUC SOLNS SHOW THE MAX H10-H8 TEMP ADVECTION              
MOVING NWRD INTO THE FA AROUND MIDNGT...AND THEREFORE...HAVE                    
ADJUSTED HRLY TEMP GRIDS /WHICH ALREADY INCLUDED A RISING TREND/                
ACCORDING TO THE LOWER TEMPS THAN FCST THAT ARE CURRENTLY IN THE                
SFC OBS.                                                                        
REGARDING TNGT'S PCPN SITUATION...HAVE DELAYED THE START TIME FOR               
THE PCPN IN THE S CNTRL MN AND W CNTRL WI AREAS UNTIL 09Z...IN                  
PART DUE TO THE AFOREMENTIONED LACK OF LO CLDS IN IA. THE DELAY IS              
SUPPORTED BY THE 00Z NAM/RUC 285K ISEN ANALYSES...WHICH DO NOT                  
SHOW AN AREA OF LOWER CONDENSATION PRES DEFICITS ENTERING THE FA                
PRIOR TO THIS TIME. IN ADDITION...A BULLSEYE OF H7 OMEGA PUSHES                 
THRU SERN MN AND INTO W CNTRL AND NWRN WI TOWARD MRNG...WHICH IS                
COINCIDENT WITH A MAX IN H8-H7 TEMP ADVECTION. THE RELATIVE LACK                
OF FORCING PRIOR TO THE MRNG HRS ACRS THE W CNTRL AND NWRN MN                   
COUNTIES HAS LED TO THE DELETION OF THE POPS IN THIS RGN.                       
IMMEDIATELY N AND W OF THE MEASURABLE PCPN RGN...HOWEVER...HAVE                 
INCLUDED A NARROW BAND OF DZ/FZDZ...WHICH BEGINS ACRS S CNTRL MN                
AND PARTS OF W CNTRL WI PRIOR TO THE 09Z TIME PD. THIS IS                       
SUPPORTED BY THE 00Z KMPX RAOB...WHICH SHOWS A NARROW SATURATED                 
AREA AT APPROX THE 900 MB LAYER. AS THE WARM FRONT APPROACHES AND               
GIVES A LITTLE KICK TO THIS SATURATED LAYER...EXPECT SOME AREAS OF              
DZ/FZDZ TO DEVELOP. THE LACK OF MID LEVEL MOISTURE ATTM...LEADS TO              
THE INCLUSION OF DZ/FZDZ RATHER THAN RA/FZRA.                                   
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 420 PM CST SAT NOV 26 2005/                         
DISCUSSION...                                                                   
CONCERN TONIGHT IS WITH WARM FRONT THAT WILL MOVE NWARD THRU ZONES              
WHICH COULD TRIGGER SOME LIGHT PRECIP. SFC TEMPS N OF BDRY IN MID               
20S TO LOWER 30S...AND AS BDRY SWINGS THRU TONIGHT TEMPS WILL START             
TO RISE AFT MIDNIGHT. ITS ALL IN THE TIMING OF WHEN A PARTICULAR                
LOCATION GETS ABOVE FREEZING VS START OF LIGHT PRECIP WHETHER IT                
WILL BE IN THE FORM OF RAIN OR FZRA. HAVE MENTIONED 30 POPS CWA WIDE            
FOR RAIN...WITH CHANCE FZRA WORDING IN AREAS THAT WILL BE AT OR                 
BELOW FREEZING THRESHOLD AT TIME WHEN PRECIP EXPECTED TO                        
BEGIN...GENERALLY AFT 06Z.                                                      
LIFT AHEAD OF APPG LOW OVER NEB WILL SWING INTO CWA SUN MORN                    
BRINGING WIDESPREAD RAIN BY AFT. IN MORNING ACROSS FAR N/NW ZONES               
THERE MAY BE A FEW HRS WHERE TEMPS HOVER AROUND FREEZING SO CONTINUE            
TO MENTION THREAT OF FZRA THERE THRU 15Z. AMPLE LIFT AND MOISTURE               
OVER CWA INTO SUN NIGHT WHEN THICKNESS FIELDS SHOW CHANGEOVER TO                
SNOW POSSIBLE WRN MN BY 09Z MON AND WRN 1/3 CWA BETWEEN 12Z AND 15Z             
MON. HAVE ISSUED WINTER STORM WATCH FOR THESE AREAS SINCE SNOW WILL             
BE PRIMARY WX IN THIS AREA FOR MUCH OF MONDAY INTO MON                          
EVE...ACCUMULATIONS OF 6 TO 8 INCHES EXPECTED W OF A LINE FROM                  
STAPLES TO GRANITE FALLS...WITH 4 TO 6 INCHES W OF A LINE FROM MILLE            
LACS LAKE TO ST CLOUD TO LITCHFIELD TO SLEEPY EYE.                              
E OF THIS LINE THICKNESS FIELDS CONTINUE TO SHOW A LONG TIME BEFORE             
COMPLETE CHANGEOVER OCCURS DUE TO MAINLY NWARD MOVEMENT OF 500/700MB            
LOW BISECTING ZONES. EXPECT ACCUMULATIONS TO RANGE E OF WATCH                   
BETWEEN 1 TO 3 INCHES...MAINLY OCCURING MON NIGHT. ALSO OF ISSUE MON            
IS GUSTY WINDS OF 25 TO 35 MPH WHICH WILL BLOW ACCUMULATING SNOW                
AROUND INTO THE EVE HRS...ESPECIALLY IN WRN HALF OF CWA. PRECIP                 
TAPERS OFF QUICKLY FROM W TO E TUE MORN AS LOW WEAKENS AND PUSHES               
INTO UP OF MI.                                                                  
LONGER TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY                                    
THE POLAR JET STREAM IS FORECAST BY THE GFS MODEL TO REMAIN SOUTH OF            
OUR FORECAST AREA TUESDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. THIS LEAVES US IN A                
COLD REGIME. MINUS 18 DEGREE 850 TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO MOVE              
OVER THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. THIS COLD AIR PRECEDES A MID TO                
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND AN ACCOMPANYING COLD FRONT THAT WILL BRING A             
CHANCE OF SNOW WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY THURSDAY. A SURFACE RIDGE IS                
FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY AND A 500 MB RIDGE IS                   
EXPECTED TO FOLLOW FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS SETS THE STAGE FOR THE RETURN             
OF SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT SATURDAY WITH LOW TO MID LEVEL WARM                     
ADVECTION.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
MN...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY EVENING           
     FOR CHIPPEWA-DOUGLAS-LAC QUI PARLE-POPE-STEVENS-SWIFT-TODD-                
     YELLOW MEDICINE.                                                           
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY EVENING              
     FOR BENTON-BROWN-KANDIYOHI-MEEKER-MORRISON-REDWOOD-RENVILLE-               
     STEARNS.                                                                   
WI...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
KAT                                                                             
</PRE></TT></td>   mn                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS                                             
953 AM CST SAT NOV 26 2005                                                      
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
ALREADY SEEING SOME UPGLIDE VIRGA OVER SERN MS WITH A FEW SHRA LIKELY           
REACHING THE SURFACE IN THE KHBG-COLUMBIA AREAS. LATEST RUC/NAM POINTING        
TOWARD A RAMPING UP OF THE NET ISENTROPIC OMEGA OVER SERN MS IN THE             
295-305K LAYERS BY MIDDAY AND THEN OVER ENTIRE SRN HALF OF CWFA BY              
MID AFTERNOON. HAVE DECIDED TO RAISE POPS FOR THE INITIAL LIGHT RAINS           
AT LOCATIONS S OF I-20 FOR THIS AFTERNOON. REST OF FORECAST APPEARS             
ON TRACK FOR NOW WITH FIRST LOW LEVEL JET MAX OF 50KT AT 850MB AND              
MOISTURE TRANSPORT MAXIMUM COINCIDING NICELY WITH A 250MB DIVERGENT             
MAXIMUM LATE TONIGHT FOR THE INITIAL BURST OF RAIN/CONVECTION. STILL            
EXPECT MANY LOCATIONS TO PICK UP 0.5-1.0" OF RAIN.                              
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
TAFS THIS MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON WILL REFLECT INCREASING MOISTURE          
AT ALL LEVELS. EXPECT FLIGHT CATEGORIES TO REMAIN VFR...BUT CLOUD               
BASES WILL BE GRADUALLY LOWERING TO 4-6K FEET AS AN UPPER DISTURBANCE           
CURRENTLY OVER TEXAS HEADS THIS WAY. RATHER EXPANSIVE RAIN SHIELD IS            
EXPECTED BY TONIGHT...WITH BEST COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORMS ANTICIPATED           
AT JAN...MEI...HBG. LOOK FOR WIDESPREAD MVFR THIS EVENING AND IFR               
LATE NIGHT IN BOTH CEILING AND VISIBILITY. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE              
FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE LATE MORNING HOURS SUNDAY.                         
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
JACKSON       69  61  76  59 /  52 100  20  61                                  
MERIDIAN      69  58  73  63 /  52 100  70  39                                  
VICKSBURG     70  59  80  58 /  72 100  10  70                                  
HATTIESBURG   73  61  77  64 /  72 100  50  26                                  
NATCHEZ       71  62  79  60 /  82 100  10  56                                  
GREENVILLE    67  58  77  56 /  72 100  10  82                                  
GREENWOOD     66  58  75  57 /  42 100  20  79                                  
&&                                                                              
.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
MS...NONE.                                                                      
LA...NONE.                                                                      
AR...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
40                                                                              
</PRE></TT></td>   ms                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC                                          
920 PM EST SAT NOV 26 2005                                                      
.SHORT TERM (OVERNIGHT)...                                                      
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL LINGER OVER THE COASTAL PLAIN DURING THE            
OVERNIGHT WHILE THE OFFSHORE TROUGH EVOLVES AND SHIFTS TOWARD THE               
COAST. MID AND HIGH CLOUDINESS WILL INCREASE FROM THE SOUTHWEST AND             
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL INCREASE FROM OFF THE ATLANTIC IN RESPONSE              
TO THE VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE PROGRESSING ALONG THE GULF COAST.                    
CURRENTLY...RADAR MOSAIC DEPICTS INITIAL SHOWER ACTIVITY MOVING ONTO            
THE GA COAST. ISENTROPIC LIFT ALONG THE 295K SURFACE WILL INCREASE              
DURING THE OVERNIGHT. COULD SEE SOME SHOWERS DEVELOP ALONG THE                  
COASTAL TROUGH AND SPREAD ONSHORE TOWARD DAY BREAK. AS A RESULT PLAN            
TO ADD A SMALL POP FOR THE COASTAL ZONES FOR VERY LATE IN THE 1ST               
PERIOD. AGREE WITH THE LATEST GUIDANCE THAT THE BEST LIFT AND                   
MOISTURE TRANSPORT WILL OCCUR AFTER 12Z TOMORROW. CURRENT                       
TEMPERATURE READINGS ARE ALREADY AT OR NEARING FORECAST MINS. GIVEN             
THE INCREASING CLOUD COVER WILL ONLY DROP TEMPERATURES BY A                     
CATEGORY.                                                                       
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
PESKY AVIATION FORECAST FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MVFR CEILING                     
OCCASIONALLY MOVING ONSHORE (MYR 1500 FT CEILING) PROBABLY FOR THE              
NEXT FEW HOURS...THEN HOPEFULLY VFR UNTIL MORNING WHEN ISENTROPIC               
LIFT PRODUCES STRATIFORM PRECIPITATION STARTING AROUND 14-15Z.                  
PRECIP SHOULD BE LIGHT ENOUGH TO KEEP VISIBILITIES MAINLY VFR...                
HOWEVER CEILINGS SHOULD LOWER TO MVFR...BASED ON BOTH THE GFS AND               
ETA. A WEAK WEDGE SITUATION IS POSSIBLE...PARTICULARLY FOR FLO.                 
CEILINGS THERE COULD FALL TO IFR...HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH AT            
THIS TIME SO WILL LEAVE ALL TERMINALS IN THE MVFR RANGE SUNDAY.                 
&&                                                                              
.MARINE...                                                                      
BASED ON A LOOK AT THE LATEST ETA AND RUC...IT NOW LOOKS AS THOUGH              
THE WIND SHIFT TO E-SE WILL OCCUR EARLY SUNDAY AS THE COASTAL TROUGH            
MOVES THROUGH THE AREA.  FOR THE BALANCE OF TONIGHT...EXPECT NE                 
WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KT WITH SEAS OF 3 TO 4 FT.                                    
&&                                                                              
.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
NC...NONE.                                                                      
SC...NONE.                                                                      
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SURF CITY TO LITTLE RIVER INLET SUNDAY            
         EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.                                   
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHORT TERM...PFAFF                                                              
AVIATION...DL                                                                   
MARINE...RAN                                                                    
</PRE></TT></td>   nc                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC                                             
806 PM EST SAT NOV 26 2005                                                      
.SHORT TERM (REST OF TONIGHT)...                                                
CIRRUS MOVING INTO FORECAST AREA BUT THINNING AS IT PUSHES INTO                 
THE UPPER RIDGE. OVERNIGHT THE RIDGE MOVES EAST AND EXPECT AN                   
INCREASE IN OPAQUE CIRRUS LATE...BUT OVERALL THE REST OF THE NIGHT              
SHOULD BE PARTLY CLOUDY ON AVERAGE. 18Z GFS SEEMS TO BE VERIFYING               
BEST WITH AREA OF LESSER ENHANCED CLOUDS SHOWING UP AS A RELATIVE               
MIN OF RH ON UPPER-LEVEL RH PROG AND THIS RELATIVE MINIMUM IS                   
FORECAST BY THAT MODEL TO PUSH INTO CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA LATE.                
AGAIN...PARTLY CLOUDY THE RULE OVERNIGHT...ALTHOUGH SOME AREAS                  
SHOULD BECOME MOSTLY CLOUDY LATE PARTICULARLY WEST AND FAR                      
SOUTHERN ZONES.                                                                 
BROAD SPECTRUM OF TEMPERATURES OVER CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA WITH                 
COLDEST READINGS GENERALLY NORTH AND NORTHEAST OF THE TRIANGLE                  
WHERE OBSERVATIONS AND MSAS SHOW DEW POINTS BEING THE LOWEST. HAVE              
LOWERED TEMPERATURES MOST ZONES FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...ESPECIALLY            
TOWARD THE NORTHEAST WHERE READINGS DURING MID EVENING WERE                     
CREEPING CLOSE TO FORECAST MINS. ONSET OF CIRRUS AND SLOWLY                     
INCREASING DEW POINTS SHOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM FALLING TOO                 
FAR TOO FAST...BUT HAD TO BREAK OUT LEE AND JOHNSTON COUNTIES                   
BECAUSE OF LOCAL OBSERVATIONS SHOWING COOL READINGS. DEW POINTS                 
THERE ALREADY APPROACHING 30 OR BETTER AND DROP SHOULD BE SLOW FOR              
THE REST OF THE NIGHT. GRIDDED AND WORDED FORECAST UPDATES ISSUED.              
THANKS TO GSP AND AKQ FOR EVENING COORDINATION.                                 
&&                                                                              
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...                                                         
(ISSUED 246 PM EST SAT NOV 26 2005)                                             
SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)...                                         
12Z RAOB ANALYSIS SHOWED GOOD MOISTURE COMING NORTH AT 850MB OUT OF             
THE WESTERN GULF AHEAD OF THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHERN                    
PLAINS.  SUBTROPICAL JET EXISTED FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE              
CAROLINAS WITH GOOD DIFFLUENCE OVER THE WESTERN GULF ON WATER VAPOR             
IMAGERY.  HIGH CLOUDS HAVE DEVELOPED AND THICKENED DURING THE                   
AFTERNOON PARTICULARLY OVER SOUTHERN ZONES...ALTHOUGH VISIBLE AND IR            
IMAGES SHOW CONSIDERABLE THINNING OFF TOWARD THE WEST.  THE RUC                 
HIGH-LEVEL RH FIELDS SUGGEST CIRRUS SHOULD DIMINISH SOME THIS                   
EVENING BEFORE THE NAM AND GFS SPREAD HIGH AND SOME MID-LEVEL CLOUDS            
BACK IN OVERNIGHT.                                                              
UPPER RIDGE MOVES THROUGH CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA EARLY SUNDAY WITH              
GOOD DIFFLUENCE IN ITS WAKE.  BOTH THE NAM AND THE GFS SUGGEST                  
INCREASING LIFT AND MOISTURE BY 18Z SUNDAY WITH SHORTWAVES AT 500MB             
AND 700MB MOVING ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY AFTERNOON.  NIL LOW-LEVEL               
CONVERGENCE SO ALL LIFT IS ISENTROPIC...AND THERE IS SOME CONCERN               
THAT JET DYNAMICS FROM FLORIDA ACROSS GEORGIA WILL RESULT IN MORE               
PRECIPITATION THERE VERSUS AREAS FARTHER NORTH SUNDAY AFTERNOON.                
WILL LIMIT POPS TO HIGH CHANCE FOR NOW...ALTHOUGH ANTICIPATE AT                 
LEAST AREAS OF VERY LIGHT RAIN SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS MID-LEVELS                   
MOISTEN WITH THE ISENTROPIC LIFT.  WITH INCREASING MOISTURE AND                 
SURFACE RIDGING REMAINING INTACT WARMING SHOULD BE LIMITED SUNDAY               
AND HAVE LOWERED MAXES A CATEGORY OR TWO.  MODEL SOUNDINGS ALSO                 
SUPPORT THIS WITH STRONG LOW-LEVEL INVERSION IN PLACE.                          
DIFFICULT PART OF THE FORECAST IS LATER SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY             
NIGHT...DUE TO DIFFERENCES IN THE GFS VERSUS THE NAM.  THE LATTER IS            
MUCH DRIER PARTICULARLY TOWARD THE COASTAL PLAIN DUE TO ITS HIGHER              
AMPLITUDE RIDGE LOCATED CLOSER TO THE ATLANTIC COAST.  AS A                     
RESULT...SUBSIDENCE IS HIGHER ON THE NAM AND DEEPER MOISTURE REMAINS            
SHUNTED WELL WEST...EVEN TO A LARGE DEGREE WEST OF THE TRIAD.  BOTH             
THE NAM AND THE GFS FORECAST WEAK UVV PARTICULARLY IN WESTERN ZONES             
MONDAY...AND PLAN TO DEFER SLIGHTLY TO THE GFS DUE TO THE STRENGTH              
OF THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND THE AMOUNT OF                  
MOISTURE MOVING NORTH ON THE LATEST RAOB ANALYSIS OVER THE GULF.                
WITH EXACT RIDGE POSITION UNCERTAIN...PRUDENT TO CONTINUE CHANCE                
POPS WEST TO SLIGHT CHANCE EAST THOUGH FEEL AT THIS POINT PERIODS OF            
PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE LIMITED WITH AMOUNTS LIGHT.                             
GFS HAS TRENDED SLOWER FROM ITS 00Z AND EVEN 06Z RUNS WITH THE                  
EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THE SURFACE FRONT TUESDAY AND TUESDAY                   
NIGHT...IN PART COURTESY OF WAVES ALONG THE FRONT AND ITS POSITIVE              
TILT IN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.  THIS COULD RESULT IN PERIODS OF              
MODERATE RAINFALL ALONG THE FRONT WITH GOOD LIFT FORECAST BY BOTH               
THE NAM AND THE GFS.  JET SUPPORT AT 300MB AND 500MB REMAINS BEST               
WEST AND NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA...BUT LOW-LEVEL WIND FIELDS ARE             
STRONG...40KTS OR GREATER ABOVE 925MB.  INSTABILITY SHOULD BE                   
LIMITED TUESDAY DUE TO CLOUDS...HOWEVER...MEAGER BREAKS IN WARM AND             
MOIST AIR MASS COULD RESULT IN MARGINAL INSTABILITY...ENOUGH FOR                
THUNDER.  MODEL SOUNDINGS ARE NOT IMPRESSIVE REGARDING INSTABILITY...           
AND LIFTED INDICES BOTH FROM THE NAM AND THE GFS EEK EVER SO                    
SLIGHTLY BELOW ZERO TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH CAPE FORECAST BETWEEN 100            
AND 500J/KG.  HAVE DECIDED TO RAISE POPS TUESDAY GIVEN CONSENSUS OF             
FRONTAL LOCATION FROM THE NAM AND GFS...WITH HIGHEST POPS WEST.                 
LONG TERM (TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)...                                   
MOIST...SOUTHERLY FLOW AND DECENT LIFT ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE                   
FRONT...ALONG WITH THE SURFACE WAVES...RESULT IN GOOD CHANCES FOR               
SHOWERS CONTINUING FOR A LARGE PART OF TUESDAY NIGHT WITH THE                   
HIGHEST POPS TOWARD THE I-95 CORRIDOR.  WILL LIMIT THUNDER CHANCES              
FOR THE NIGHTTIME HOURS TUESDAY CENTRAL AND EAST IMMEDIATELY ALONG              
THE FRONT.  CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE...AND EVEN THE SLOWER GFS...HAS               
THE COLD FRONT EAST OF CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA BY 12Z WEDNESDAY AND              
ANTICIPATE DRY CONDITIONS BY SUNRISE WEDNESDAY WITH DIMINISHING                 
CLOUDS WEDNESDAY MORNING.                                                       
SUBSIDENCE WILL BE THE RULE FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK AFTER TUESDAY              
NIGHT.  SURFACE RIDGING WILL PREVAIL SOUTH ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF              
OF MEXICO...AND THOUGH ANOTHER COLD FRONT SHOULD PUSH ACROSS THE                
STATE LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY AS ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH MOVES                   
THROUGH...SURFACE MOISTURE SHOULD BE LIMITED AND THE GFS KEEPS MOST             
OF THE ENERGY NORTH OF THE STATE.  ALTHOUGH THE DGEX IS MORE                    
AMPLIFIED WITH THE UPPER TROUGH AND FORECASTS DECENT MID-LEVEL                  
VORTICITY TO MOVE OVER CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA FRIDAY WITH SLIGHTLY              
MORE MOISTURE...ITS QPF REMAINS DRY.  ENSEMBLE MOS POPS ARE ALMOST              
ALL BELOW CLIMATOLOGY SO WILL MAINTAIN THE DRY FORECAST FOR THE BULK            
OF THE LONG-TERM PERIOD WITH TEMPERATURES WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF               
SEASONAL NORMS.                                                                 
AVIATION...                                                                     
THIN BKN CIRRUS SPREADING OVER CENTRAL NC THIS AFTERNOON WILL REMAIN            
AROUND 25KFT THROUGH MIDNIGHT. MODEL RUNS THIS AFTERNOON HAVE BECOME            
MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH MOISTURE INCREASING IN THE LOWER LEVELS SUNDAY             
MORNING. THE NAM IS FASTER AT INCREASING LOW CLOUDS EARLY SUNDAY                
MORNING AND THIS FORECAST LEANS MORE TOWARDS THE SLOWER GFS. BOTH               
MODELS SHOW STRONG OVERRUNNING SETTING UP BY MID TO LATE MORNING                
WITH A LOW LEVEL JET OF 30KT. EXPECT A RAPID INCREASE OF MID AND LOW            
CLOUDS SUNDAY MORNING. MVFR CONDITIONS SHOULD DEVELOP FROM SUNRISE              
THROUGH MID MORNING. CEILINGS WILL CONTINUE TO LOWER THROUGH THE                
LATE MORNING HOURS APPROACHING VFR CONDITIONS BY AFTERNOON.                     
OVERRUNNING LIFT WILL ALSO GENERATE SOME PRECIP FROM LATE MORNING               
INTO THE AFTERNOON RESULTING IN LIMITED VISIBILITIES FOR EARLY AND              
MID AFTERNOON. EXPECT MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS TO PERSIST THROUGH MUCH            
OF SUNDAY AFTERNOON.                                                            
&&                                                                              
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
NONE.                                                                           
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHORT TERM...DJF                                                                
</PRE></TT></td>   nc                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC                                             
246 PM EST SAT NOV 26 2005                                                      
.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)...                                        
12Z RAOB ANALYSIS SHOWED GOOD MOISTURE COMING NORTH AT 850MB OUT OF             
THE WESTERN GULF AHEAD OF THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHERN                    
PLAINS.  SUBTROPICAL JET EXISTED FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE              
CAROLINAS WITH GOOD DIFFLUENCE OVER THE WESTERN GULF ON WATER VAPOR             
IMAGERY.  HIGH CLOUDS HAVE DEVELOPED AND THICKENED DURING THE                   
AFTERNOON PARTICULARLY OVER SOUTHERN ZONES...ALTHOUGH VISIBLE AND IR            
IMAGES SHOW CONSIDERABLE THINNING OFF TOWARD THE WEST.  THE RUC                 
HIGH-LEVEL RH FIELDS SUGGEST CIRRUS SHOULD DIMINISH SOME THIS                   
EVENING BEFORE THE NAM AND GFS SPREAD HIGH AND SOME MID-LEVEL CLOUDS            
BACK IN OVERNIGHT.                                                              
UPPER RIDGE MOVES THROUGH CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA EARLY SUNDAY WITH              
GOOD DIFFLUENCE IN ITS WAKE.  BOTH THE NAM AND THE GFS SUGGEST                  
INCREASING LIFT AND MOISTURE BY 18Z SUNDAY WITH SHORTWAVES AT 500MB             
AND 700MB MOVING ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY AFTERNOON.  NIL LOW-LEVEL               
CONVERGENCE SO ALL LIFT IS ISENTROPIC...AND THERE IS SOME CONCERN               
THAT JET DYNAMICS FROM FLORIDA ACROSS GEORGIA WILL RESULT IN MORE               
PRECIPITATION THERE VERSUS AREAS FARTHER NORTH SUNDAY AFTERNOON.                
WILL LIMIT POPS TO HIGH CHANCE FOR NOW...ALTHOUGH ANTICIPATE AT                 
LEAST AREAS OF VERY LIGHT RAIN SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS MID-LEVELS                   
MOISTEN WITH THE ISENTROPIC LIFT.  WITH INCREASING MOISTURE AND                 
SURFACE RIDGING REMAINING INTACT WARMING SHOULD BE LIMITED SUNDAY               
AND HAVE LOWERED MAXES A CATEGORY OR TWO.  MODEL SOUNDINGS ALSO                 
SUPPORT THIS WITH STRONG LOW-LEVEL INVERSION IN PLACE.                          
DIFFICULT PART OF THE FORECAST IS LATER SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY             
NIGHT...DUE TO DIFFERENCES IN THE GFS VERSUS THE NAM.  THE LATTER IS            
MUCH DRIER PARTICULARLY TOWARD THE COASTAL PLAIN DUE TO ITS HIGHER              
AMPLITUDE RIDGE LOCATED CLOSER TO THE ATLANTIC COAST.  AS A                     
RESULT...SUBSIDENCE IS HIGHER ON THE NAM AND DEEPER MOISTURE REMAINS            
SHUNTED WELL WEST...EVEN TO A LARGE DEGREE WEST OF THE TRIAD.  BOTH             
THE NAM AND THE GFS FORECAST WEAK UVV PARTICULARLY IN WESTERN ZONES             
MONDAY...AND PLAN TO DEFER SLIGHTLY TO THE GFS DUE TO THE STRENGTH              
OF THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND THE AMOUNT OF                  
MOISTURE MOVING NORTH ON THE LATEST RAOB ANALYSIS OVER THE GULF.                
WITH EXACT RIDGE POSITION UNCERTAIN...PRUDENT TO CONTINUE CHANCE                
POPS WEST TO SLIGHT CHANCE EAST THOUGH FEEL AT THIS POINT PERIODS OF            
PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE LIMITED WITH AMOUNTS LIGHT.                             
GFS HAS TRENDED SLOWER FROM ITS 00Z AND EVEN 06Z RUNS WITH THE                  
EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THE SURFACE FRONT TUESDAY AND TUESDAY                   
NIGHT...IN PART COURTESY OF WAVES ALONG THE FRONT AND ITS POSITIVE              
TILT IN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.  THIS COULD RESULT IN PERIODS OF              
MODERATE RAINFALL ALONG THE FRONT WITH GOOD LIFT FORECAST BY BOTH               
THE NAM AND THE GFS.  JET SUPPORT AT 300MB AND 500MB REMAINS BEST               
WEST AND NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA...BUT LOW-LEVEL WIND FIELDS ARE             
STRONG...40KTS OR GREATER ABOVE 925MB.  INSTABILITY SHOULD BE                   
LIMITED TUESDAY DUE TO CLOUDS...HOWEVER...MEAGER BREAKS IN WARM AND             
MOIST AIR MASS COULD RESULT IN MARGINAL INSTABILITY...ENOUGH FOR                
THUNDER.  MODEL SOUNDINGS ARE NOT IMPRESSIVE REGARDING INSTABILITY...           
AND LIFTED INDICES BOTH FROM THE NAM AND THE GFS EEK EVER SO                    
SLIGHTLY BELOW ZERO TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH CAPE FORECAST BETWEEN 100            
AND 500J/KG.  HAVE DECIDED TO RAISE POPS TUESDAY GIVEN CONSENSUS OF             
FRONTAL LOCATION FROM THE NAM AND GFS...WITH HIGHEST POPS WEST.                 
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM (TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)...                                  
MOIST...SOUTHERLY FLOW AND DECENT LIFT ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE                   
FRONT...ALONG WITH THE SURFACE WAVES...RESULT IN GOOD CHANCES FOR               
SHOWERS CONTINUING FOR A LARGE PART OF TUESDAY NIGHT WITH THE                   
HIGHEST POPS TOWARD THE I-95 CORRIDOR.  WILL LIMIT THUNDER CHANCES              
FOR THE NIGHTTIME HOURS TUESDAY CENTRAL AND EAST IMMEDIATELY ALONG              
THE FRONT.  CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE...AND EVEN THE SLOWER GFS...HAS               
THE COLD FRONT EAST OF CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA BY 12Z WEDNESDAY AND              
ANTICIPATE DRY CONDITIONS BY SUNRISE WEDNESDAY WITH DIMINISHING                 
CLOUDS WEDNESDAY MORNING.                                                       
SUBSIDENCE WILL BE THE RULE FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK AFTER TUESDAY              
NIGHT.  SURFACE RIDGING WILL PREVAIL SOUTH ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF              
OF MEXICO...AND THOUGH ANOTHER COLD FRONT SHOULD PUSH ACROSS THE                
STATE LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY AS ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH MOVES                   
THROUGH...SURFACE MOISTURE SHOULD BE LIMITED AND THE GFS KEEPS MOST             
OF THE ENERGY NORTH OF THE STATE.  ALTHOUGH THE DGEX IS MORE                    
AMPLIFIED WITH THE UPPER TROUGH AND FORECASTS DECENT MID-LEVEL                  
VORTICITY TO MOVE OVER CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA FRIDAY WITH SLIGHTLY              
MORE MOISTURE...ITS QPF REMAINS DRY.  ENSEMBLE MOS POPS ARE ALMOST              
ALL BELOW CLIMATOLOGY SO WILL MAINTAIN THE DRY FORECAST FOR THE BULK            
OF THE LONG-TERM PERIOD WITH TEMPERATURES WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF               
SEASONAL NORMS.                                                                 
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
THIN BKN CIRRUS SPREADING OVER CENTRAL NC THIS AFTERNOON WILL REMAIN            
AROUND 25KFT THROUGH MIDNIGHT. MODEL RUNS THIS AFTERNOON HAVE BECOME            
MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH MOISTURE INCREASING IN THE LOWER LEVELS SUNDAY             
MORNING. THE NAM IS FASTER AT INCREASING LOW CLOUDS EARLY SUNDAY                
MORNING AND THIS FORECAST LEANS MORE TOWARDS THE SLOWER GFS. BOTH               
MODELS SHOW STRONG OVERRUNNING SETTING UP BY MID TO LATE MORNING                
WITH A LOW LEVEL JET OF 30KT. EXPECT A RAPID INCREASE OF MID AND LOW            
CLOUDS SUNDAY MORNING. MVFR CONDITIONS SHOULD DEVELOP FROM SUNRISE              
THROUGH MID MORNING. CEILINGS WILL CONTINUE TO LOWER THROUGH THE                
LATE MORNING HOURS APPROACHING VFR CONDITIONS BY AFTERNOON.                     
OVERRUNNING LIFT WILL ALSO GENERATE SOME PRECIP FROM LATE MORNING               
INTO THE AFTERNOON RESULTING IN LIMITED VISIBILITIES FOR EARLY AND              
MID AFTERNOON. EXPECT MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS TO PERSIST THROUGH MUCH            
OF SUNDAY AFTERNOON.                                                            
&&                                                                              
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
NONE.                                                                           
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHORT TERM...DJF                                                                
LONG TERM...DJF                                                                 
AVIATION...JO                                                                   
</PRE></TT></td>   nc                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OHIO                                         
1035 AM EST SAT NOV 26 2005                                                     
.SHORT TERM (THIS AFTERNOON)...                                                 
UPDATED TO REMOVE MORNING PORTION. ALSO KEPT MENTION OF SPRINKLES OR            
FLURRIES FOR THE AFTERNOON.                                                     
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM (TODAY) UPDATE...                                                   
PCPN MOVING OUT NORTH CENTRAL OH...UPDATING JUST TO CLARIFY THE                 
WORDING. MODELS IN AGREEMENT.                                                   
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION(12Z-12Z)...                                                           
WARM FRONT ACROSS NORTHERN OHIO WILL MOVE SLOWLY NORTH TODAY AND                
THEN MOVE NORTH OF THE LAKE TONIGHT. PCPN ASSOCIATED WITH WARM FRONT            
DECREASING RAPIDLY AS PER 88D. MODELS HAD A VERY GOOD HANDLE ON                 
THIS. SATELLITE SHOWING A LARGE AREA OF DECREASING CLOUDS MOVING                
INTO NORTHWEST INDIANA. IT SEEMS TO BE MOVING EAST. THE ETA...GFS               
AND RUC ALL INDICATE THAT THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS IN PLACE               
THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY...IN FACT THE CEILING HEIGHT WILL LOWER                      
DURING THE UPCOMING NIGHT. THE MODELS DO INDICATE SOME UVV                      
TODAY...THIS MAY KEEP SOME FLURRIES OR SPRINKLES GOING...ATTM WILL              
NOT MENTION THAT IN THE TAFS...EXCEPT FOR SOME LINGERING PCPN FOR               
ERI AND YNG UNTIL 14Z. WITH THE UVV AND THE LASTEST SATELLITE TRYING            
TO SHOW THE BACK EDGE NOT MAKING AS MUCH ADVANCEMENT WILL KEEP MOST             
LOCATIONS BROKEN THRU THE TAF...NONE THE LESS IT WILL BE VFR CEILING            
AND VSBY.                                                                       
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM(TODAY THRU SUN)...                                                  
BAND OF WAA SN ACRS NRN OH ON TRACK AS EXPECTED.  BASED ON MSTR AND             
LIFT SHUD END WITH ABT TRACE TO 3 IN TOTAL MOST PLACES THIS MORN                
WITH HIER AMTS GNLY IN NERN CO'S.  WL BASE POPS ON CURRENT RAD PIX              
AT ZONE TIME.  STG WAA AND LIFT...WUD NOT BE SUPRISED IF LGT SN OR              
FLURRIES LINGER WELL INTO AFTN IN THE NE WITH MAYBE SOME SPRINKLES              
FURTHER SW.  WAA RAINS SPREAD W TO E INTO AREA LATER TNGT.  CURRENT             
GRIDDS HV HANDLE ON THIS SO SHUD ONLY NEED A FEW MINOR CHGS.  RA                
CONTS W ON SUN WITH TAPERING TO CHC POPS E.                                     
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM (SUNDAY NITE THRU FRI)...                                            
BIG CHANGES ARE EXPECTED IN THE LONG TERM WITH A LARGE WARM UP EARLY            
IN THE WEEK AND A COOL DOWN WITH MORE LAKE EFFECT SNOW POSSIBLE BY              
THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE FAIRLY SIMILAR WITH             
THE EVOLUTION OF THE UPPER PATTERN NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES MAY REACH            
INTO THE 60S MONDAY AND BE FOLLOWED BY A VERY MILD NIGHT BEFORE                 
FRONTAL PASSAGE MONDAY NIGHT. WE WILL NEED TO MONITOR THE RETURN OF             
DEEP MOISTURE AND ASSESS THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE CONVECTION GIVEN              
THE STRONG WIND FIELDS. LAKE EFFECT SNOW MAY DEVELOP WED AND PERSIST            
INTO THE SNOW BELT INTO FRI.                                                    
&&                                                                              
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
OH...NONE.                                                                      
PA...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
SHORT TERM...LW/ADAMS                                                           
LONG TERM...REL                                                                 
AVIATION...KIELTYKA                                                             
$$                                                                              
</PRE></TT></td>   oh                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OHIO                                         
726 AM EST SAT NOV 26 2005                                                      
.SHORT TERM (TODAY) UPDATE...                                                   
PCPN MOVING OUT NORTH CENTRAL OH...UPDATING JUST TO CLARIFY THE                 
WORDING. MODELS IN AGREEMENT.                                                   
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION(12Z-12Z)...                                                           
WARM FRONT ACROSS NORTHERN OHIO WILL MOVE SLOWLY NORTH TODAY AND                
THEN MOVE NORTH OF THE LAKE TONIGHT. PCPN ASSOCIATED WITH WARM FRONT            
DECREASING RAPIDLY AS PER 88D. MODELS HAD A VERY GOOD HANDLE ON                 
THIS. SATELLITE SHOWING A LARGE AREA OF DECREASING CLOUDS MOVING                
INTO NORTHWEST INDIANA. IT SEEMS TO BE MOVING EAST. THE ETA...GFS               
AND RUC ALL INDICATE THAT THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS IN PLACE               
THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY...IN FACT THE CEILING HEIGHT WILL LOWER                      
DURING THE UPCOMING NIGHT. THE MODELS DO INDICATE SOME UVV                      
TODAY...THIS MAY KEEP SOME FLURRIES OR SPRINKLES GOING...ATTM WILL              
NOT MENTION THAT IN THE TAFS...EXCEPT FOR SOME LINGERING PCPN FOR               
ERI AND YNG UNTIL 14Z. WITH THE UVV AND THE LASTEST SATELLITE TRYING            
TO SHOW THE BACK EDGE NOT MAKING AS MUCH ADVANCEMENT WILL KEEP MOST             
LOCATIONS BROKEN THRU THE TAF...NONE THE LESS IT WILL BE VFR CEILING            
AND VSBY.                                                                       
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM(TODAY THRU SUN)...                                                  
BAND OF WAA SN ACRS NRN OH ON TRACK AS EXPECTED.  BASED ON MSTR AND             
LIFT SHUD END WITH ABT TRACE TO 3 IN TOTAL MOST PLACES THIS MORN                
WITH HIER AMTS GNLY IN NERN CO'S.  WL BASE POPS ON CURRENT RAD PIX              
AT ZONE TIME.  STG WAA AND LIFT...WUD NOT BE SUPRISED IF LGT SN OR              
FLURRIES LINGER WELL INTO AFTN IN THE NE WITH MAYBE SOME SPRINKLES              
FURTHER SW.  WAA RAINS SPREAD W TO E INTO AREA LATER TNGT.  CURRENT             
GRIDDS HV HANDLE ON THIS SO SHUD ONLY NEED A FEW MINOR CHGS.  RA                
CONTS W ON SUN WITH TAPERING TO CHC POPS E.                                     
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM (SUNDAY NITE THRU FRI)...                                            
BIG CHANGES ARE EXPECTED IN THE LONG TERM WITH A LARGE WARM UP EARLY            
IN THE WEEK AND A COOL DOWN WITH MORE LAKE EFFECT SNOW POSSIBLE BY              
THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE FAIRLY SIMILAR WITH             
THE EVOLUTION OF THE UPPER PATTERN NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES MAY REACH            
INTO THE 60S MONDAY AND BE FOLLOWED BY A VERY MILD NIGHT BEFORE                 
FRONTAL PASSAGE MONDAY NIGHT. WE WILL NEED TO MONITOR THE RETURN OF             
DEEP MOISTURE AND ASSESS THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE CONVECTION GIVEN              
THE STRONG WIND FIELDS. LAKE EFFECT SNOW MAY DEVELOP WED AND PERSIST            
INTO THE SNOW BELT INTO FRI.                                                    
&&                                                                              
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
OH...NONE.                                                                      
PA...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
SHORT TERM...ADAMS                                                              
LONG TERM...REL                                                                 
AVIATION...KIELTYKA                                                             
$$                                                                              
</PRE></TT></td>   oh                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED                                            
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OHIO                                         
642 AM EST SAT NOV 26 2005                                                      
.AVIATION(12Z-12Z)...                                                           
WARM FRONT ACROSS NORTHERN OHIO WILL MOVE SLOWLY NORTH TODAY AND                
THEN MOVE NORTH OF THE LAKE TONIGHT. PCPN ASSOCIATED WITH WARM FRONT            
DECREASING RAPIDLY AS PER 88D. MODELS HAD A VERY GOOD HANDLE ON                 
THIS. SATELLITE SHOWING A LARGE AREA OF DECREASING CLOUDS MOVING                
INTO NORTHWEST INDIANA. IT SEEMS TO BE MOVING EAST. THE ETA...GFS               
AND RUC ALL INDICATE THAT THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS IN PLACE               
THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY...IN FACT THE CEILING HEIGHT WILL LOWER                      
DURING THE UPCOMING NIGHT. THE MODELS DO INDICATE SOME UVV                      
TODAY...THIS MAY KEEP SOME FLURRIES OR SPRINKLES GOING...ATTM WILL              
NOT MENTION THAT IN THE TAFS...EXCEPT FOR SOME LINGERING PCPN FOR               
ERI AND YNG UNTIL 14Z. WITH THE UVV AND THE LASTEST SATELLITE TRYING            
TO SHOW THE BACK EDGE NOT MAKING AS MUCH ADVANCEMENT WILL KEEP MOST             
LOCATIONS BROKEN THRU THE TAF...NONE THE LESS IT WILL BE VFR CEILING            
AND VSBY.                                                                       
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM(TODAY THRU SUN)...                                                  
BAND OF WAA SN ACRS NRN OH ON TRACK AS EXPECTED.  BASED ON MSTR AND             
LIFT SHUD END WITH ABT TRACE TO 3 IN TOTAL MOST PLACES THIS MORN                
WITH HIER AMTS GNLY IN NERN CO'S.  WL BASE POPS ON CURRENT RAD PIX              
AT ZONE TIME.  STG WAA AND LIFT...WUD NOT BE SUPRISED IF LGT SN OR              
FLURRIES LINGER WELL INTO AFTN IN THE NE WITH MAYBE SOME SPRINKLES              
FURTHER SW.  WAA RAINS SPREAD W TO E INTO AREA LATER TNGT.  CURRENT             
GRIDDS HV HANDLE ON THIS SO SHUD ONLY NEED A FEW MINOR CHGS.  RA                
CONTS W ON SUN WITH TAPERING TO CHC POPS E.                                     
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM (SUNDAY NITE THRU FRI)...                                            
BIG CHANGES ARE EXPECTED IN THE LONG TERM WITH A LARGE WARM UP EARLY            
IN THE WEEK AND A COOL DOWN WITH MORE LAKE EFFECT SNOW POSSIBLE BY              
THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE FAIRLY SIMILAR WITH             
THE EVOLUTION OF THE UPPER PATTERN NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES MAY REACH            
INTO THE 60S MONDAY AND BE FOLLOWED BY A VERY MILD NIGHT BEFORE                 
FRONTAL PASSAGE MONDAY NIGHT. WE WILL NEED TO MONITOR THE RETURN OF             
DEEP MOISTURE AND ASSESS THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE CONVECTION GIVEN              
THE STRONG WIND FIELDS. LAKE EFFECT SNOW MAY DEVELOP WED AND PERSIST            
INTO THE SNOW BELT INTO FRI.                                                    
&&                                                                              
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
OH...NONE.                                                                      
PA...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
SHORT TERM...ADAMS                                                              
LONG TERM...REL                                                                 
AVIATION...KIELTYKA                                                             
$$                                                                              
</PRE></TT></td>   oh                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK                                              
257 PM CST SAT NOV 26 2005                                                      
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
TWO DAYS AGO WE DETERMINED THAT THE RECENT PERSISTENT LONGWAVE                  
PATTERN WOULD BREAK DOWN...THAT THE MODELS WOULD HAVE A HARD TIME               
WITH THE TRANSITION...AND THAT THE RESULTING NEW PATTERN WOULD                  
INCLUDE A BROAD AND FAIRLY AMPLIFIED LONGWAVE TROF OVER THE                     
CENTRAL CONUS BY MID-LATE NEXT WEEK. TWO OUT OF THREE AIN'T BAD.                
WE - AND THE MODELS - BUSTED ON THE NEW PATTERN WHICH NOW LOOKS                 
MORE LIKE A HIGH LATITUDE BLOCK SETTING UP OVER THE NE PACIFIC.                 
THIS LEADS TO BIGGER HEIGHT FALLS DOWNSTREAM OVER WESTERN                       
NOAM....WHICH IN TURN AMPLIFIES A DOWNSTREAM RIDGE OVER THE                     
CENTRAL CONUS BY LATE NEXT WEEK. SO MUCH FOR THE COOL AND WETTER                
/POSSIBLY WINTERY/ REGIME WE EXPECTED A COUPLE DAYS AGO. AT LEAST               
THE CURRENT SUITE OF MODEL RUNS LOOKS MODERATELY CONSISTENT IN                  
SETTING UP THE CENTRAL CONUS RIDGE BY NEXT FRI...BUT THEY WELL                  
COULD SWING TOWARD AN ENTIRELY DIFFERENT SOLUTION BY THIS TIME                  
TOMORROW. SINCE UNCERTAINTY IS STILL QUITE A BIT HIGHER THAN USUAL              
IN THE MEDIUM RANGE...WE HAVE OPTED TO SIMPLY FOLLOW THE LEAD OF                
HPC ON DAY 3-7 HIGHS/LOWS/POPS IN THIS PACKAGE. RESULT IS A DRY                 
FORECAST...WHICH ALSO FITS WELL WITH RECENT TRENDS LOCALLY...AND                
TEMPS THAT ARE CLOSER TO CLIMATOLOGY THAN WHAT WE HAD OUT THERE                 
EARLIER IN THE WEEK.                                                            
IN THE SHORT TERM...MAIN CATALYST BEHIND THE PATTERN TRANSITION IS              
THE POWERHOUSE SYSTEM NOW DIGGING INTO THE CENTRAL/S ROCKIES -                  
COURTESY OF A 200-KT UPPER JET DIVING ACROSS CA. THIS ONE INDEED                
WILL LEAD TO A TROF OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS EARLY NEXT WEEK...BUT IT             
IS NOT LIKELY TO LAST THE WEEK. WEAKER SYSTEM NOW BEING EJECTED                 
ACROSS THE LOWER MS VALLEY WILL HAVE LIMITED AFFECT HERE...EXCEPT               
TO INTERCEPT BETTER LL MOISTURE AND THUS KEEP THE POTENTIAL FOR                 
STRONG/SEVERE CONVECTION IN OUR AREA MINIMAL THRU SUN. HOWEVER...               
MODIFIED RUC SOUNDINGS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING YIELD SBCAPES OF                  
1000-1500 J/KG AND NOT A WHOLE LOT OF CIN OVER W OK. PROBLEMS WILL              
BE PREVAILING SUBSIDENCE AND A BROAD NOT-WELL-DEFINED DRYLINE AT                
PRESENT. BUT MAY NEED TO WATCH OUT IF ANYTHING CAN INITIATE BEFORE              
23-00Z AS EARLY-EVENING SRH VALUES OFF THE NAM ARE 200-400 M2/S2                
/0-1KM/ AND 300-500 /0-3KM/. PRESSURE FALLS WILL KEEP WINDS UP                  
TONIGHT AS THE SFC LOW REVS UP OVER KS. WHAT MOISTURE DOES RETURN               
WILL LIKELY BRING GULF STRATUS BACK N LATER TONIGHT TO AREAS                    
MAINLY NEAR AND E OF I-35. EXPECT STRONG SW WINDS ON SUN AS                     
SHARPENING DRYLINE PUNCHES E TO THE S OF THE DEEPENING LOW OVER                 
KS. COULD NEED ANOTHER WIND ADVISORY...AND THERE MAY EVEN BE                    
BLOWING DUST...BUT PRECIP CHANCES WILL BE LIMITED IN THE DRY SLOT.              
BETTER CHANCES WILL BE TO OUR E IN FORM OF STRONG STORMS NEAR/E OF              
DRYLINE...AND INTO NW/NCENTRAL OK WHERE WRAPAROUND CLOUDS/RAIN MAY              
BE PULLED DOWN INTO THE SW QUAD OF THE SFC LOW SUN INTO SUN                     
EVENING. WE CURRENTLY THINK PRECIP CHANCES WILL DIMINISH BEFORE                 
ANY PARTS OF N OK GET COLD ENOUGH TO CHANGE OVER SUNDAY NIGHT.                  
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  53  67  35  52 /  10  10  10   0                              
HOBART OK         49  63  33  54 /  10  10  10   0                              
WICHITA FALLS TX  54  71  36  59 /  10  10  10   0                              
GAGE OK           43  53  27  49 /  20  40  20   0                              
PONCA CITY OK     53  63  35  46 /  20  20  20  10                              
DURANT OK         57  75  42  60 /  20  10  10   0                              
&&                                                                              
.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
OK...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR OKZ004-OKZ005-          
     OKZ006-OKZ007-OKZ008-OKZ009-OKZ010-OKZ011-OKZ012-OKZ013-                   
     OKZ014-OKZ015-OKZ016-OKZ017-OKZ018-OKZ019-OKZ020-OKZ021-                   
     OKZ022-OKZ023-OKZ024-OKZ025-OKZ027-OKZ033-OKZ034-OKZ035-                   
     OKZ036-OKZ037-OKZ038-OKZ039-OKZ044-OKZ045.                                 
     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR OKZ004-OKZ005-             
     OKZ006-OKZ009-OKZ010-OKZ011-OKZ014-OKZ015-OKZ016.                          
     FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING            
     FOR OKZ023-OKZ024-OKZ025-OKZ026-OKZ027-OKZ028-OKZ029-OKZ030-               
     OKZ031-OKZ032-OKZ033-OKZ034-OKZ035-OKZ036-OKZ037-OKZ038-                   
     OKZ039-OKZ040-OKZ041-OKZ042-OKZ043-OKZ044-OKZ045-OKZ046-                   
     OKZ047-OKZ048-OKZ050-OKZ051-OKZ052.                                        
TX...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR TXZ083-TXZ084-          
     TXZ085-TXZ086-TXZ087-TXZ088-TXZ089-TXZ090.                                 
     FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING            
     FOR TXZ083-TXZ084-TXZ085-TXZ086-TXZ087-TXZ088-TXZ089-TXZ090.               
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
22 SHORT TERM                                                                   
24 LONG TERM                                                                    
</PRE></TT></td>   ok                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK                                              
1130 AM CST SAT NOV 26 2005                                                     
.UPDATE...OVERALL JUST MINOR ADJUSTMENTS MADE TO THE AFTERNOON                  
FORECAST. MAINTAINED THE WESTERN EDGE OF RAIN CHANCES ALONG A                   
WICHITA FALLS TO OKC TO STILLWATER LINE...BUT INCREASED POPS TO                 
50 AND 60 PERCENT FARTHER SOUTH AND EAST BASED ON RADAR TRENDS                  
AND RUC FORECAST. CLOUD COVER HAS HELPED PREVENT ANY THUNDERSTORMS              
FROM BECOMING SURFACE BASED...SO INSTABILITY IS LIMITED...AND THESE             
SHOULD NOT CAUSE ANY TROUBLE ASIDE FROM BRIEF HEAVY RAIN AND                    
LIGHTNING.                                                                      
MEANWHILE...AREAS NORTH AND WEST WILL SEE ABUNDANT SUNSHINE EARLY               
IN THE AFTERNOON. NEW GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES SUGGEST LOWER 70S POSSIBLE.         
HOWEVER...THERE IS ALREADY EVIDENCE OF LOW CLOUDS DEVELOPING AND                
EXPANDING IN THESE AREAS...WHICH SHOULD HOLD TEMPS IN CHECK. ONLY               
TWEAKED THEM UPWARDS A COUPLE DEGREES.                                          
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION... (ISSUED 421 AM CST SAT NOV 26 2005)                         
DISCUSSION...                                                                   
THE LEAD UPPER WAVE OVER SOUTHWEST TEXAS EARLY THIS MORNING WILL                
MOVE INTO EAST TEXAS BY LATE TODAY. MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION WITH              
THIS SYSTEM WILL BE ACROSS SOUTHERN AND EASTERN TEXAS ALTHOUGH WE               
COULD SEE SCATTERED SHOWERS... AND POSSIBLY A FEW T-STORMS...                   
FARTHER NORTH INTO OUR AREA WITH THE BEST CHANCES ACROSS SOUTHEAST              
OKLAHOMA. SOME MODIFIED GULF MOISTURE HAS BEEN SPREADING NORTH                  
OVERNIGHT AS EVIDENCED BY THE APPEARANCE OF LOW CLOUDS ON                       
SATELLITE. MEANWHILE... A STRONGER SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE SOUTHERN              
ROCKIES EARLY SUNDAY WILL INITIATE CYCLOGENESIS OVER THE SOUTH                  
CENTRAL PLAINS. AGAIN IT LOOKS LIKE THE BEST PCPN CHANCES ON SUNDAY             
WILL AGAIN BE OVER OUR SOUTHEAST ZONES AS VEERING WINDS JUST OFF                
THE DECK SUNDAY MORNING ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA WILL                   
RESULT IN A RATHER SHALLOW MOISTURE FIELD. WE LOOK FOR THE DRYLINE              
TO MOVE EAST INTO CENTRAL OKLAHOMA BY AFTERNOON WITH THE COLD                   
FRONT DROPPING INTO NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA. SURFACE WINDS ARE EXPECTED              
TO BE FAIRLY STOUT WITH AS THE SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS A RELATIVELY                
TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT. MEANWHILE... COLD TEMPERATURES SPREADING               
IN ALOFT BY LATE SUNDAY COULD SUPPORT SOME SNOW IN THE NORTHWEST.               
HOWEVER... ANY PCPN LINGERING IN THAT AREA BY THEN SHOULD BE                    
LIGHT... AND WITH THE LOWER LEVEL THICKNESSES STILL RELATIVELY                  
WARM... WE EXPECT ONLY A LIGHT MIX OF RAIN/WET SNOW. COOLER AIR                 
WILL SPREAD IN BEHIND THE FRONT FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY... BEFORE                
TEMPS WARM UP BRIEFLY AROUND MID WEEK... AND THEN COOL AGAIN BY                 
THURSDAY.                                                                       
FIRE WEATHER WILL BE A CONCERN THIS WEEKEND. A HIGH FIRE DANGER                 
IS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE AREA                    
AS BOTH WINDS AND TEMPS INCREASE. EXTREME CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED               
SUNDAY AFTERNOON ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 40... GENERALLY IN               
THE SECTOR WEST OF THE DRYLINE AND SOUTH OF THE FRONT WHERE WE                  
SHOULD SEE VERY WARM TEMPERATURES... LOW DEWPOINTS AND STRONG                   
WINDS.                                                                          
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  68  55  70  37 /  20  20  20  10                              
HOBART OK         72  50  68  35 /  10  20  20  10                              
WICHITA FALLS TX  70  54  77  38 /  20  20  20  10                              
GAGE OK           70  43  57  30 /  10  20  40  30                              
PONCA CITY OK     69  54  67  37 /  20  20  30  30                              
DURANT OK         66  59  80  44 /  60  20  30  10                              
&&                                                                              
.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
OK...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING            
     FOR OKZ023-OKZ024-OKZ025-OKZ026-OKZ027-OKZ028-OKZ029-OKZ030-               
     OKZ031-OKZ032-OKZ033-OKZ034-OKZ035-OKZ036-OKZ037-OKZ038-                   
     OKZ039-OKZ040-OKZ041-OKZ042-OKZ043-OKZ044-OKZ045-OKZ046-                   
     OKZ047-OKZ048-OKZ050-OKZ051-OKZ052.                                        
TX...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING            
     FOR TXZ083-TXZ084-TXZ085-TXZ086-TXZ087-TXZ088-TXZ089-TXZ090.               
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
22/24                                                                           
</PRE></TT></td>   ok                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT                                      
415 AM MST SAT NOV 26 2005                                                      
.SYNOPSIS...A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE AREA TODAY WILL               
USHER A COLD...MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS INTO THE REGION. UNSETTLED            
WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE                   
UPCOMING WEEK.                                                                  
&&                                                                              
.DISCUSSION...POWERFUL PACIFIC JET IMPINGING ON PACIFIC COAST THIS              
MORNING...WITH LEAD SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY TRANSLATING ACROSS               
NORTHERN UT. VORT MAX ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY                  
TRANSLATING ACROSS GREAT SALT LAKE DESERT...WITH REGION OF STRONG               
PVA ALONG WITH ENTRANCE REGION OF JET RESULTING IN UPWARD VERTICAL              
MOTION AND RESULTANT PRECIPITATION ACROSS MUCH OF NORTHERN UTAH AND             
FAR SOUTHWEST WYOMING. FAIRLY STRONG 700MB COLD ADVECTION IN PLACE              
ACROSS NORTHERN UT WITH RUC-ANALYZED 700MB TEMPS CURRENTLY AROUND               
-6C. JUST UPSTREAM STRONG 500MB COLD ADVECTION CURRENTLY SPREADING              
INTO NORTHWESTERN UT AND RESULTING IN AN INCREASE IN CONVECTION                 
ACROSS THE GREAT SALT LAKE DESERT...EVIDENCED BY COOLING CLOUD TOPS             
IN IR IMAGERY. AS SHORTWAVE TROUGH CONTINUES TO TRANSLATE EASTWARD              
THIS MORNING EXPECT SEVERAL MORE HOURS OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS                  
NORTHERN UT. CONTINUED COLD ADVECTION WILL ALLOW SNOW LEVELS TO FALL            
TO THE VALLEY FLOORS BY NOONTIME. AS COLD ADVECTION CONTINUES                   
THROUGHOUT THIS AFTERNOON...BOTH ALOFT AND AT THE                               
SURFACE...OCCASIONAL SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE NORTHERN             
HALF OF THE CWA.                                                                
TWO AREAS OF ENHANCED PRECIPITATION ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. THE                 
FIRST IS ACROSS AREAS SOUTHEAST OF THE GREAT SALT LAKE...WHERE VERY             
COLD AIR ALOFT /-16 AT 700MB AND -34 AT 500MB/ WILL RESULT IN STEEP             
LAPSE RATES AND SUPPORT DEVELOPMENT OF HEAVY SNOWBANDS OVER THE                 
GREAT SALT LAKE. NORTHWEST WINDS THROUGHOUT THE 700-500MB LAYER                 
SHOULD STEER THESE BANDS SOUTHEAST INTO AREAS FROM FAR SOUTHERN                 
DAVIS COUNTY THROUGH EASTERN SALT LAKE COUNTY...AND PERHAPS FAR                 
NORTHERN UTAH COUNTY...WHERE WARNING CRITERIA SNOWS CAN BE EXPECTED.            
AS A RESULT HAVE GONE AHEAD AND ISSUED A HEAVY SNOW WARNING FOR THE             
WASATCH FRONT. ALTHOUGH HEAVIEST SNOW IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT...ONSET             
OF SNOW IN THESE AREAS DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS REQUIRES WARNING TO             
BEGIN DURING THE DAYTIME PERIOD.                                                
SECOND AREA IS ACROSS CENTRAL UTAH WHERE SECONDARY SHORTWAVE TROUGH             
WILL RESULT IN ENHANCEMENT IN SNOWFALL OVERNIGHT. HAVE GONE WITH A              
SNOW ADVISORY FOR WEST CENTRAL UTAH...ZONE 15...PRIMARILY CONCERNED             
ABOUT SNOW ALONG THE INTERSTATE 15 CORRIDOR NEAR FILLMORE...WHICH               
TENDS TO BE FAVORED IN NORTHWEST FLOW. OTHERWISE GOING HEAVY SNOW               
WARNING FOR CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS LOOKS IN GOOD SHAPE.                
EXPECT SNOW TO TAPER OFF DURING THE DAY SUNDAY AS 500MB TEMPS BEGIN             
TO WARM IN RESPONSE TO BUILDING SHORTWAVE RIDGE UPSTREAM.  700MB                
WARM ADVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS RIDGE IS FORECAST TO OVERSPREAD             
THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY...WHICH MAY WELL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF                
SNOWFALL ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.                                             
ACTIVE PATTERN LOOKS TO CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE REMAINDER OF THE                
UPCOMING WEEK...AS YET ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST BY                  
GFS/EC TO TRANSLATE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY NIGHT INTO                
WEDNESDAY. AT THIS TIME HAVE LEFT POPS BEYOND MONDAY IN THE SLIGHT              
CHANCE/CHANCE CATEGORY.                                                         
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...NORTHWESTERLY WINDS TO DEVELOP AT KSLC DURING THE                   
MORNING HOURS AS GRADIENT INCREASES BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. THE                  
COOLING AIRMASS WILL SUPPORT RAIN SHOWERS TURNING TO SNOW SHOWERS BY            
MIDDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN BRIEF PERIODS OF IFR CONDITIONS THIS                
AFTERNOON. VERY COLD NORTHWEST FLOW TONIGHT WILL LIKELY RESULT IN               
LAKE EFFECT SNOW BANDS AND MORE PERSISTENT IFR CONDITIONS THROUGH               
THE NIGHT.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
UT...HEAVY SNOW WARNING THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING ZONES                            
     UTZ002>004-006>010-017.                                                    
     SNOW ADVISORY THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING ZONE                   
     UTZ015.                                                                    
WY...SNOW ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT ZONE WYZ021.                                 
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
PUBLIC...SEAMAN                                                                 
AVIATION...BRENCHLEY                                                            
</PRE></TT></td>   ut                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI                                           
930 PM CST SAT NOV 26 2005                                                      
.UPDATE...                                                                      
WILL BE EXPANDING THE AREA OF FREEZING DRIZZLE A LITTLE FARTHER                 
SOUTH THAN THE CURRENT FORECAST. FORECAST SOUNDINGS FROM THE RUC                
INDICATE THAT IF LIGHT PRECIPITATION CAN DEVELOP BETWEEN 09Z AND                
12Z...SURFACE TEMPERATURES FROM ABOUT WABASHA COUNTY EASTWARD INTO              
NORTHERN ADAMS AND JUNEAU COUNTIES WOULD STILL BE BELOW FREEZING.               
BY 12Z...THE SOUNDINGS INDICATE TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE AT OR JUST               
BELOW FREEZING. HOWEVER...THE RUC IS SLOWER TO BRING IN THE                     
PRECIPITATION TO THESE AREAS AND DOES NOT START IT UNTIL ABOUT 12Z.             
THE 00Z NAM CONTINUES TO SUPPORT A WARMER SOLUTION FOR THESE AREAS              
AND AGREES WELL WITH THE ONGOING FORECAST DESPITE BREAKING                      
PRECIPITATION OUT AROUND 09Z. CONFIDENCE DOES NOT EXIST AT THIS                 
POINT TO EXPAND THE ADVISORY SOUTH BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR             
A QUICK UPDATE TO THIS IF NEEDED.                                               
04                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION...                                                             
.SHORT TERM...THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT                                             
FORECAST CONCERNS CONTINUE TO FOCUSED ON SIGNIFICANT STORM SYSTEM TO            
AFFECT THE AREA SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY.                                          
AFTERNOON SURFACE ANALYSIS HAD WARM FRONT EXTENDING ACROSS NORTHERN             
ILLINOIS AND CENTRAL IOWA TO LOW PRESSURE NEAR SOUTH DAKOTA/WYOMING             
BORDER. LARGE TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...                
WITH READINGS RANGING FROM UPPER 20S IN NORTH CENTRAL WI...TO                   
THE MID 40S IN PARTS OF NORTHEAST IOWA. SOUTH OF THE WARM FRONT...              
DEW POINTS WERE RISING INTO THE 40S ACROSS MISSOURI AND KANSAS. IN              
THE UPPER ATMOSPHERE...300MB 120KT JET ADVANCING INTO SOUTHWEST U.S.            
AS EVIDENCED BY HERRING-BONE LIKE PATTERN IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY.               
12Z 26NOV05 MODELS HAD COME INTO GOOD CONSENSUS ON STRONG STORM                 
SYSTEM TO EVOLVE OVER THE CENTRAL PART OF THE NATION. IN THE                    
LAST FEW DAYS...UKMET AND ECMWF HAVE HAD SLOWER AND FURTHER WEST                
TRACK OF OCCLUDED SURFACE LOW MOVING INTO UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.             
NAM AND GFS HAVE COME INTO AGREEMENT WITH THIS SOLUTION...WITH                  
SURFACE LOW OVER NORTHWEST IOWA AT 12Z 28NOV05. ALTHOUGH THERE WERE             
DIFFERENCES IN THE LOW LEVEL THERMAL FIELDS ON MONDAY...FORECAST                
CONFIDENCE WAS OVERALL HIGH BASED ON MODEL CONSENSUS.                           
TONIGHT...WARM AIR BEGINS PUSHING NORTHWARD IN EARNEST AS 850MB                 
TEMPERATURES RISE TO AROUND 8C BY 12Z 27NOV05. MODEST ISENTROPIC LIFT           
NOTED IN THE 280K-290K LAYER...WHICH PROVIDES FORCING TO GENERATE               
PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. INCREASED PRECIPITATION                 
PROBABILITIES INTO LIKELY CATEGORY BASED ON FORCING SIGNAL.                     
BUFR SOUNDINGS SUPPORT LIQUID PRECIPITATION MOST AREAS DUE TO                   
PRONOUNCED ELEVATED WARM LAYER AND SURFACE TEMPERATURES EITHER                  
RISING TO OR REMAINING ABOVE 32F. FURTHER NORTH...BEFORE DEEP CLOUD             
LAYER MOVES IN ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL WI...CONCERNED THAT FREEZING                
DRIZZLE WILL OCCUR LONG ENOUGH TO WARRANT AN ADVISORY. THUS...ISSUED            
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR WIZ017 09Z-15Z 27NOV05.                             
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...CLOSED 500MB LOW EVOLVES OVER NATIONS                 
MIDSECTION...AS SURFACE LOW PUSHES NORTHWARD OUT OF THE PLAINS AND              
OCCLUDES. STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM EXPECTED TO                
BRING DEEP LAYER OF RELATIVE HUMIDITY THROUGH THE TROPOSPHERE AS                
SHOWN BY TIME/HEIGHT CROSS SECTIONS. LARGE SCALE ASCENT IMPRESSIVE              
ASSOCIATED WITH LOW LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION...ALONG WITH UPPER LEVEL           
DIVERGENCE IN LEFT FRONT REGION OF 300MB JET. IN ADDITION...ELEVATED            
CAPE VALUES OF 300-400 J/KG INDICATED SUNDAY NIGHT.                             
STRONG DYNAMICS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL LOW                 
CERTAINLY SUGGEST WIDESPREAD RAINFALL EVENT SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT.            
CURRENT DATA BASE APPEARS QUITE REASONABLE WITH RESPECT TO RAIN                 
PROBABILITIES AND QPF. MAINTAINED ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL               
SUNDAY NIGHT BASED ON ELEVATED INSTABILITY. IN ADDITION...ADDED FOG             
TO SUNDAY NIGHT IN PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST MN AND NORTHEAST IOWA...               
WHERE SOUTHEAST WINDS OVER MELTING SNOW SUPPORT SIGNIFICANTLY                   
REDUCED VISIBILITY DUE TO FOG.                                                  
WARMING TREND SUPPORTED BY RISING 850MB AND SURFACE TEMPERATURES.               
HOWEVER...WE WERE CONCERNED THE MODELS WARMED THE NEAR-SURFACE AIR              
TOO MUCH TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS BASED ON FRESH SNOW COVER           
OVER MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA...WHICH THE MODELS HAVE NOT ACCOUNTED            
FOR. IN ADDITION...AS TEMPERATURES RISE ABOVE 32F...MELTING SNOW                
SHOULD PRIME THE BOUNDARY LAYER FOR LOW CLOUDS AND/OR FOG. THUS...              
MAINTAINED NON-DIURNAL TREND IN DATA BASE...WITH TEMPERATURES                   
ANTICIPATED TO CONTINUE RISING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...BUT NOT AS                
MUCH AS MOS GUIDANCE SUGGESTED.                                                 
MONDAY...STRONG 850MB COLD AIR ADVECTION INDICATED AS COLDER AIR                
WRAPS AROUND THE OCCLUDED LOW. WE HAD SOME UNCERTAINTY ABOUT                    
PRECIPITATION TYPE AS A RESULT OF GFS AND NAM FORECAST SOUNDING AND             
COBB OUTPUT DIFFERENCES. FOR EXAMPLE...NAM SOUNDINGS AND COBB OUTPUT            
SUGGEST RAIN CHANGES TO ALL SNOW ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHEAST MN AND                
NORTHEAST IOWA. ON THE OTHER HAND...GFS FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND COBB             
OUTPUT SUPPORTED A WARMER SCENARIO...WITH RAIN IN THE AFOREMENTIONED            
LOCATIONS INTO THE AFTERNOON. DUE TO UNCERTAINTY...MAINTAINED DATA              
BASE AS IS...WITH RAIN OR SNOW GENERALLY WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI                
RIVER AND ALL RAIN FROM THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER EASTWARD INTO WI.                 
.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY                                         
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...BOTH ECMWF AND GFS INDICATED AN UPPER LEVEL           
AND SURFACE WAVE SHOULD MOVE ACROSS THE MIDWEST. APPEARS THERE COULD            
BE ENOUGH FORCING TO PRODUCE A LIGHT SNOW EVENT. MAIN IMPACT ON THE             
FORECAST WAS TO INCLUDE CHANCE OF SNOW WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THIS TIME             
PERIOD WAS PRECIPITATION FREE IN THE CURRENT DATA BASE.                         
FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...NEXT SYSTEM TO AFFECT THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI              
VALLEY COULD BRING PRECIPITATION DURING THE WEEKEND...DECEMBER 3-4.             
DUE TO ENSEMBLE AND OPERATIONAL MODEL DIFFERENCES IN TIMING AND                 
POSITION OF SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL FEATURES...CONFIDENCE WAS NOT               
HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE PRECIPITATION ON DAY 7...SATURDAY.                       
&&                                                                              
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
WI...NONE.                                                                      
MN...NONE.                                                                      
IA...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
THOMPSON                                                                        
</PRE></TT></td>   wi                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR                                         
315 AM CST SUN NOV 27 2005                                                      
.SHORT TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT                                    
PRECIPITATION TOOK A WHILE TO MAKE IT INTO THE CWA SATURDAY AND                 
LOOKING BACK...IT APPEARS THE GFS ACTUALLY HAD THE BETTER TIMING.               
WITH OVERRRUNING EVENT WRAPPING UP EARLY THIS MORNING...ITS TIME TO             
CONCENTRATE ON THE DEVELOPING CONVECTIVE EVENT SLATED FOR LATER THIS            
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. WHILE NAM AND GFS ARE BOTH DEEPER AND SLOWER             
WITH THE SYSTEM TONIGHT...STILL LIKE THE GFS SOLUTION. BASED ON THE             
CONTINUITY OF THE GFS AND ITS HANDLING OF THE SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH             
NOW...SEE NO REASON TO DEVIATE AWAY FROM IT.                                    
OVERRUNNING/WARM AIR ADVECTION PRECIPITATION CONTINUING TO MOVE                 
TOWARDS THE NORTH AS WEAKENING MID LEVEL WAVE OVER THE CENTRAL GULF             
COAST LIFTS OFF TO THE NORTHEAST. MAJORITY OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL            
BE OVER BY PRESS TIME BUT WILL STILL HOLD ON TO SOME MINIMAL POPS               
EARLY OVER THE NORTHEAST PART OF THE CWA AS RUC13 MODEL HOLDS ON TO             
SOME LIGHT PRECIP THROUGH MID MORNING. MAJORITY OF THE DAY WILL BE              
DRY AS AREA WILL BE BETWEEN SYSTEMS BUT RAIN CHANCES WILL BE                    
INCREASING ONCE AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON AS NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES                  
FROM THE WEST.                                                                  
MAJOR PLAYERS STILL SHOWING UP QUITE NICELY ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY              
THIS MORNING...MAINLY THE EXITING MID LEVEL WAVE AND THE VIGOROUS               
UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM CURRENTLY OVER THE ROCKIES. DEEP TROF EVIDENT                
JUST SOUTH OF THE 4 CORNERS WITH STRONG IMPULSE ROTATING THROUGH ITS            
BASE ACROSS NORTHERN ARIZONA/NEW MEXICO. SYSTEM STILL LOOSELY                   
ORGANIZED AT THE MOMENT BUT BUT EXPECTED TO QUICKLY INTENSIFY LATER             
THIS MORNING AS IT LIFTS OUT INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS.                           
LEE CYCLOGENESIS ALREADY UNDERWAY OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. SURFACE              
LOW ALSO EXPECTED TO DEEPEN RAPIDLY THIS MORNING IN RESPONSE TO THE             
EXIT REGION OF MID LEVEL JET MOVING THROUGH. SURFACE LOW EXPECTED TO            
BE IN NORTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA BY MID DAY AND RACING OFF INTO SOUTHERN            
IOWA BY MONDAY MORNING. PROJECTED PATH WOULD KEEP AREA IN WARM                  
SECTOR THE ENTIRE DAY WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS PROVIDING GOOD MOISTURE              
RETURN. GRADIENT BETWEEN SYSTEMS LOOKS PRETTY TIGHT AND WILL HOIST A            
LAKE WIND ADVISORY FOR THE ENTIRE CWA FOR TODAY.                                
EXPECTING SQUALL LINE TO DEVELOP IN ADVANCE OF THE ATTENDANT COLD               
FRONT THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS WHICH WILL THEN SWEEP              
THROUGH THE STATE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. STRONG DIFFLUENCE            
NOTED ALOFT ALONG WITH GOOD SURFACE CONVERGENCE BUT INSTABILITY                 
APPEARS MARGINAL AT BEST RIGHT NOW. HOWEVER...THERE IS SOME CONCERN             
THAT COULD CHANGE. WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER TODAY SHOULD KEEP                     
INSTABILITY IN CHECK BUT ANY SIGNIFICANT CLEARING COULD LEAD TO                 
EXPLOSIVE DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE FRONT. BIGGEST THREAT APPEARS TO BE             
STRAIGHT LINE WINDS WITH FAST MOVING LINE WHICH WILL BE LOCATED NEAR            
THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER NEAR MIDNIGHT.                                            
WILL END THE PCPN ACROSS THE AREA FROM WEST TO EAST SUNDAY EVENING              
AS FRONT MOVES THROUGH. AFTER SOME BRIEF CLEARING SUNDAY NIGHT/EARLY            
MONDAY...LARGE SLUG OF MOISTURE WILL ROTATE AROUND THE MAIN LOW                 
MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY AS TROF AXIS PASSES THROUGH.             
NO PRECIPITATION EXPECTED. TEMPERATURES WILL COOL OF INITIALLY                  
BEHIND THE FRONT WITH STRONGER COLD AIR AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THE                
PASSAGE OF THE TROF.                                                            
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS BY MIDDAY                  
TUESDAY FOR DRY AND COOL CONDITIONS TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL                  
MODERATE WEDNESDAY AS CENTER OF THE HIGH MOVES EAST AND WINDS RETURN            
TO A SOUTHERLY DIRECTION AND FLOW ALOFT STARTS TO BECOME MORE ZONAL.            
MAV NUMBERS LOOK PRETTY GOOD BUT WILL GO ABOVE GUIDANCE ON WEDNESDAY.           
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY                                          
LARGE VORTEX TO OUR NORTHEAST WILL CONTINUE MOVING AWAY FROM THE                
STATE WHILE RIDGE AMPLIFIES TO OUR WEST. H5 RIDGE WILL BE JUST EAST             
OF AR BY 00Z SUN...AND IT WILL BE CLOSE TO THE EAST COAST BY SUNDAY             
MORNING. IN THE MEANTIME...ANOTHER LONG WAVE TROF WILL BE TRAVERSING            
THE ROCKIES. THE SURFACE PATTERN WILL BEGIN THE PERIOD WITH A COLD              
FRONT HAVING JUST EXITED THE SOUTHEAST CORNER OF THE STATE. HIGH                
PRESSURE WILL PUSH DRIER AIR OVER THE STATE FROM THE NORTH...WHILE              
HOLDING OFF GULF MOISTURE ALONG THE COAST BY 00Z FRIDAY. HIGHER RH              
VALUES WILL MOVE NORTH THROUGH LA OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING...              
BUT THEY DO NOT QUITE PUSH INTO THE STATE. I WILL HAVE TO HOLD OFF              
ANY MENTION OF RAIN UNTIL LATE IN THE DAY SATURDAY. TEMPS WILL BE               
CLOSE TO NORMAL THURSDAY...AND THEY WILL TAKE A DIP BELOW NORMAL FOR            
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.                                                            
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
LITTLE ROCK   AR  72  50  61  38 /  60  70  10  10                              
HARRISON AR       68  45  55  32 /  60  60  10  10                              
HOT SPRINGS AR    73  50  60  38 /  60  70  10  10                              
PINE BLUFF AR     74  52  63  39 /  60  80  10  10                              
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  68  46  57  32 /  60  70  10  10                              
MONTICELLO AR     75  54  65  40 /  60  80  10  10                              
SEARCY AR         72  50  60  37 /  60  80  10  10                              
MOUNT IDA AR      72  49  60  37 /  60  70  10  10                              
RUSSELLVILLE AR   71  48  58  36 /  60  70  10  10                              
&&                                                                              
.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM SUNDAY TO 6 PM SUNDAY FOR ARZ003-                 
ARZ004-ARZ005-ARZ006-ARZ007-ARZ012-ARZ013-ARZ014-ARZ015-ARZ016-                 
ARZ021-ARZ022-ARZ023-ARZ024-ARZ025-ARZ030-ARZ031-ARZ032-ARZ033-                 
ARZ034-ARZ037-ARZ038-ARZ039-ARZ040-ARZ041-ARZ042-ARZ043-ARZ044-                 
ARZ045-ARZ046-ARZ047-ARZ052-ARZ053-ARZ054-ARZ055-ARZ056-ARZ057-                 
ARZ062-ARZ063-ARZ064-ARZ065-ARZ066-ARZ067-ARZ068-ARZ069.                        
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHORT TERM...56 / LONG TERM....32                                               
</PRE></TT></td>   ar                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI                                     
444 AM EST SUN NOV 27 2005                                                      
.SHORT TERM...TODAY AND TONIGHT                                                 
LOW LEVEL WARMING MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW THROUGH TONIGHT...AS MID                 
LEVEL SHORTWAVE RIDGE GETS SHOVED NORTHEAST WITH CLOSED LOW...AS AT             
500 MB...TAKING SHAPE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND APPROACHING THE               
MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY LATE TONIGHT.                                            
850 TO 500 MB MOISTURE SEEN BY MODELS TO RAPIDLY IMPROVE EARLY THIS             
MORNING...THEN DROPPING OFF BY LATE TONIGHT. 925 MB MOISTURE                    
ESPECIALLY GOOD THIS MORNING AND AGAIN TONIGHT. PRECIPITABLE WATER              
RISING TO AROUND AN INCH EARLY TODAY...AS 295K ISENTROPIC SURFACE               
SPECIFIC HUMIDITY VALUES RISE TO NEAR 6 G/KG.                                   
LOW TO MID LEVEL OMEGA LIFT MODEST AT TIMES THROUGH TONIGHT. 850 TO             
500 MB QVECTOR CONVERGENCE SLIGHT TODAY INTO TONIGHT. MODEST 850 TO             
500 MB FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING...ACCOMPANIED BY          
MODEST UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE. 295K ISENTROPIC LIFT SEEN BY NAM AND             
GFS WITH BEST SURGE THIS MORNING...AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS               
EVENING BEFORE WANING. CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS RAPIDLY                   
LOWERING TO AROUND 30 MB EARLY THIS MORNING TO LEND SUPPORT FOR RAIN.           
MINIMAL CHANGES FROM EARLIER FORECASTS FOR RAIN TODAY AND TONIGHT.              
MELTING SNOW WILL AID FOG DEVELOPMENT AND MAINTENANCE AS                        
TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS CLIMB. 00Z WRFXX AND GFS SEEM TO HAVE               
BEST HANDLE ON AREAL EXTENT OF RAIN MOVING UP FROM THE SOUTH.                   
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY                                            
STRONG UPPER LEVEL CLOSED LOW WITH 500MB HEIGHTS AROUND 5280M...WILL            
START THE DAY OVER SOUTHERN IOWA. THIS FEATURE AND THE ASSOCIATED               
984MB SURFACE LOW WILL BOTH START TO FILL AS A JET STREAK MOVES UP              
THE EAST SIDE OF THE TROUGH...CAUSING THE ENTIRE SYSTEM TO                      
ACCELERATE NORTHEASTWARD. THIS SYSTEM BECOMES STRONGLY OCCLUDED ON              
MONDAY WITH THE COLD FRONT REACHING ALL THE WAY NORTH TO LAKE                   
SUPERIOR WHILE THE SURFACE LOW LAGS OVER SOUTHWESTERN WISCONSIN.                
THE FRONTAL PUSH ITSELF WILL BE FAIRLY WEAK ACROSS SOUTHEAST                    
MICHIGAN DURING THE AFTERNOON AS WINDS SHIFT FROM SOUTHEAST TO                  
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST BEHIND THE FRONT WITH NEARLY UNI-DIRECTIONAL                    
SOUTHERLY FLOW THROUGH THE COLUMN. THE FRONT HAS ALSO SLOWED A BIT              
ALLOWING TEMPS TO CLIMB TO NEAR 60 ACROSS THE SOUTH AHEAD OF THE                
FRONT. AM STILL EXPECTING TO SEE A PERIOD OF SHOWERS WITH GOOD LOW              
LEVEL FRONTAL FORCING DURING THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. THIS                  
LIFT IS STRONGEST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA WHERE THERE               
IS ALSO BETTER INSTABILITY. TIMING LOOKS A BIT OFF FOR                          
THUNDERSTORMS ON MONDAY AS INSTABILITY IN NOT IMPRESSIVE WITH LOW               
LEVEL LIFT COMING WHILE 500MB TEMPS ARE IN THE -14 TO -16C RANGE.               
LOCAL WRFXX HEMISPHERIC MODELS SHOWS A BIT MORE PROMISE WITH                    
AROUND 400 J/KG OF CAPE...BUT IS AN OUTLIER FROM THE REST OF THE                
MODELS WITH THE LOCATION OF THE UPPER LOW. STILL FEEL BEST CHANCES              
OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE FROM CENTRAL INDIANA SOUTHWARD WHERE THE               
AIRMASS IS MORE FAVORABLE AND FRONTAL FORCING STRONGER...SO WILL                
CONTINUE WITH RAIN SHOWERS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND LEAVE THE                   
THUNDERSTORMS OUT. WILL CONTINUE LIKELY POPS INTO THE EVENING AS                
IT LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE MID EVENING UNTIL DRY SLOT CUTS OFF                    
SHOWERS.                                                                        
THE UPPER LEVEL CLOSED LOW WILL OPEN...LIFTING NORTHEAST TOWARDS THE            
POLAR LOW OVER ONTARIO THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. TEMPS WILL COOL                 
THROUGHOUT THE DAY ON TUESDAY AS COLD AIR ADVECTION CONTINUES WITH              
LIGHT INSTABILITY SHOWERS POSSIBLE. 1000-850MB THICKNESSES WILL ONLY            
BE DOWN TO AROUND 1300M BY MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH 850MB TEMPS OF -8C.            
THIS WILL LEAVE PRECIP TYPE ON THE FENCE THROUGH AT LEAST MID                   
AFTERNOON TRANSITIONING TO SNOW FROM WEST TO EAST.                              
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL STILL REMAIN OVER THE MIDWEST WITH                      
SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH IT...UNTIL FINALLY LIFTING NORTHEAST OF               
THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY. A SURFACE LOW WILL DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE                
WAVE OVER NEW ENGLAND WITH A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING WEST TO THE               
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE OHIO RIVER                 
VALLEY ON WEDNESDAY WILL INFLUENCE SOUTHERN MICHIGAN...WITH                     
FLURRIES TAPERING OFF BY THE AFTERNOON. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING ON                  
WEDNESDAY WILL GIVE WAY TO THE NEXT TROUGH DROPPING OUT OF CANADA               
ON THURSDAY. DIFFERENCES IN TIMING AND ORIENTATION OF THIS TROUGH               
WILL IMPACT THE TRACK OF THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW CONSIDERABLY                
FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. INITIAL INDICATIONS SHOW WE MAY WARM UP                
SLIGHTLY WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT BEFORE COOLING BACK DOWN                     
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. HAVE MADE FEW CHANGES TO THE FORECAST                     
LEAVING LOW POPS IN FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS IT IS STILL TOO                  
EARLY TOO HIGHLIGHT A PERIOD WITH HIGHER CHANCES.                               
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION... (ISSUED 1153 PM EST SAT NOV 26 2005)                        
AVIATION...                                                                     
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION HAS RESULTED IN THE EXPANSION OF A                 
STRATUS DECK BASED AROUND 4500 FT ACROSS SOUTHERN MICHIGAN. SOME                
MVFR CEILINGS ARE LIFTING NORTH ACROSS INDIANA AND OHIO ASSOCIATED              
WITH SOME 925MB MOISTURE ADVECTION. BASED ON THE LATEST RUC...THESE             
CLOUDS SHOULD REACH THE DETROIT AREA AROUND 08Z AND MBS BY 10Z.                 
LOOKS LIKE THE BEST LIFT WILL ARRIVE INTO SE MICHIGAN IN A SERIES OF            
WAVES. THE FIRST SHOULD ARRIVE AFTER 10Z AS STRONG LOW LEVEL                    
MOISTURE ADVECTS NORTH ACROSS THE AREA. THE COMBINATION OF RAIN AND             
SNOWMELT WILL RESULT IN MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITY. THE NEXT AREA             
OF LIFT SHOULD ARRIVE LATE IN THE AFTERNOON AND PERSIST THROUGH THE             
END OF THE TAF PERIOD AS AN UPPER SHORT WAVE LIFTS ACROSS THE STATE.            
THE 18Z NAM AND GFS INDICATE A BRIEF PERIOD OF VFR CONDITIONS AROUND            
DETROIT IN THE MID AFTERNOON BEFORE THE NEXT WAVE ARRIVES...WITH FNT            
AND MBS REMAINING MVFR. WILL KEEP CEILINGS AND VISIBILITY MVFR LATE             
IN THE TAF PERIOD. PERSISTENT SURFACE MOISTURE ADVECTION OVER THE               
RECENT SNOWMELT MAY HOWEVER CREATE IFR OR LIFR VISIBILITIES TOWARD              
THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED.                  
&&                                                                              
.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
MI...NONE.                                                                      
LAKE HURON...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...LHZ441...4 PM SUNDAY TO 6 PM MONDAY.        
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...SAGINAW BAY-LHZ442-LHZ443...7 PM SUNDAY             
          TO 6 PM MONDAY.                                                       
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.                                                           
MI WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.                                                  
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHORT TERM...DWD                                                                
LONG TERM....KAHL                                                               
AVIATION...CONSIDINE                                                            
YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE            
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).                                    
</PRE></TT></td>   mi                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
404 AM EST SUN NOV 27 2005                                                      
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS ARE FREEZING RAIN THIS MORNING AND DENSE FOG             
TONIGHT.                                                                        
CURRENT WEATHER...09Z WATER VAPOR LOOP AND RUC 500MB HEIGHT ANALYSIS            
SHOWED AN UPPER RIDGE COVERING MUCH OF THE EAST HALF OF THE U.S.                
WHILE AN UPPER TROUGH WAS LOCATED OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. ONE              
SHEARING OUT SHRTWV CAN BE SEEN OVER MISSOURI HEADING NE. A MORE                
INTENSE STRETCHED OUT SHRTWV...NOTED BY DRYING ON WATER VAPOR...                
EXTENDED FROM NE ARIZONA INTO SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO (NOTED BY DRYING              
ON WATER VAPOR). AN UPPER LOW WAS ALSO LOCATED WITHIN THE TROUGH                
NEAR GRAND JUNCTION COLORADO. ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE                          
SHRTWV...250MB WINDS WERE ON THE ORDER OF 130-140KT PER 00Z RUC                 
ANALYSIS. AHEAD OF THE SHRTWV OVER THE PLAINS...STRONG WARM AND                 
MOISTURE ADVECTION HAS BEEN OCCURRING WITH SURFACE WINDS OUT OF THE             
SOUTH FROM 15-25KT. SURFACE DEWPOINTS OF 50 F OR GREATER HAVE NOW               
ADVECTED INTO PORTIONS OF NEBRASKA AND IOWA. 00Z TOPEKA SOUNDING                
ALSO INDICATED AN 850MB DEWPOINT OF 9C WITH A PRECIPITABLE WATER OF             
0.87 INCHES. ALL OF THIS MOISTURE AND WARMER AIR IS LOCATED ON THE              
SOUTH SIDE OF A WARM FRONT STILL ALONG I-80 FROM EASTERN NEBRASKA TO            
CLEVELAND. THIS FRONT THEN EXTENDS SOUTHWEST TO A 992MB LOW NEAR                
DODGE CITY. CLOSER TO HOME...SE LOW LEVEL FLOW CONTINUES ON THE                 
NORTH SIDE OF THE WARM FRONT. PLENTY OF LOW CLOUD (NEAR MVFR                    
CEILINGS) HAS FORMED ACROSS THE WESTERN 2/3 OF UPPER MICHIGAN DUE TO            
UPSLOPE OFF OF LAKE MICHIGAN (DEWPOINTS AT MNM...ESC AND ISQ ARE IN             
THE UPPER 20S). NO FREEZING DRIZZLE HAS OCCURRED YET THOUGH. DRIER              
LOW LEVEL AIR IS LOCATED OVER NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN WHERE                     
DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE TEENS. MORE HIGHER BASED STRATOCUMULUS ARE                 
SPREADING NORTH FROM SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF MINNESOTA...WISCONSIN AND             
MICHIGAN. IN FACT...LATEST RADAR LOOPS...SURFACE OBS AND LIGHTNING              
PLOTS ARE NOW SHOWING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM SE MN            
INTO SW LOWER MI. THESE THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN AN AREA OF 700-850MB               
NEGATIVE EPV (MAINLY THETA-E DECREASING WITH HEIGHT).                           
TODAY...SHRTWV OVER THE SOUTHWEST IS PROGGED TO MOVE INTO CENTRAL               
OKLAHOMA THIS EVENING...PULLING THE UPPER LOW INTO FAR SOUTH CENTRAL            
KANSAS. INCREASING DPVA ALONG WITH INCREASED WARM ADVECTION AND                 
POSSIBILITY FOR CONVECTION SHOULD ALLOW THE SURFACE LOW TO DEEPEN               
INTO THE 980S MB BY 00Z. WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE SHRTWV WILL                
EVEN BE FELT ALL THE WAY NORTH INTO UPPER MICHIGAN AS MODEL PROGS               
SHOW 850MB TEMPS RISING TO 6C BY 00Z. THIS WARM ADVECTION SHOULD                
PUSH THE WARM FRONT NEAR I-80 ACROSS THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON WHILE A             
NEW WARM FRONT SETS UP OVER THE OHIO VALLEY AS THE LOW DEEPENS.                 
ISENTROPIC LIFT SEEN ON THE 295K SURFACE IN CONJUNCTION WITH DPVA               
AHEAD OF THE SHEARED OUT SHRTWV IN MISSOURI AND IOWA HEADING INTO               
WISCONSIN SHOULD ALLOW FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF MORE RAIN THIS MORNING            
ACROSS WISCONSIN AS MID-LEVEL MOISTEN...SPREADING NORTH INTO THE CWA            
BY LATE MORNING AND ACROSS THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON. THERE IS A                   
POSSIBILITY THAT TEMPERATURES MAY NOT BE ABOVE FREEZING WHEN THIS               
RAIN MOVES IN SO HAVE INSERTED FREEZING RAIN LIKELY INTO THE GRIDS              
ALONG THE WISCONSIN BORDER. IT LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE A BRIEF PERIOD             
THOUGH. UNTIL THEN...NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF PRECIPIATION LOOKS TO               
OCCUR...PERHAPS SOME PATCHY DRIZZLE DUE TO UPSLOPE. FIGURE TOO THAT             
ONCE RAIN STARTS...WHICH IS EXPECTED TO BE A WARM RAIN GIVEN THE                
HIGHER 850MB TEMPS...MELTING OF THE SNOWPACK SHOULD RESULT IN SOME              
FOG DEVELOPMENT. THIS WILL BE PARTICULAR TRUE BY LATE AFTERNOON WHEN            
MORE MELTING HAS OCCURRED AND HIGHER DEWPOINTS ADVECT INTO THE CWA              
ACROSS THE SNOWPACK. DESPITE THAT THERE IS LIGHTNING WITH THE                   
SHOWERS TO THE SOUTH...HAVE NOT MENTIONED ANY THUNDER IN THE                    
FORECAST. LOOKING AT RUC CROSS-SECTIONS...THE AREA OF NEGATIVE EPV              
IS PROGGED TO WEAKEN AS IT MOVES INTO UPPER MICHIGAN WHICH SEEMS                
REASONABLE AS CONVECTION THAT DOES GO AT NIGHT IS USUALLY SUPPORTED             
BY A NOCTURNAL LOW LEVEL JET. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO BE HELD DOWN BY            
THE RAIN AND THICK CLOUD COVER. CURRENT GOING HIGHS SEEM REASONABLE.            
TONIGHT...DIFFERENCES AMONGST THE MODELS ALREADY APPEAR WITH HOW                
FAST THE UPPER LOW AND SHRTWV EJECT TO THE NORTHEAST. THE UKMET IS              
SLOWEST...SHOWING THE UPPER LOW NEAR OTTAWA KANSAS AT 12Z MON                   
WHEREAS THE GFS AND CANADIAN HAVE IT ALREADY INTO SOUTH CENTRAL                 
IOWA. THE NAM IS HALF-WAY INBETWEEN. TRENDS WITH MODELS HAVE BEEN               
SLOWER AND DEEPER WITH THIS SYSTEM AND THEREFORE WILL FOLLOW THE                
UKMET. RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH SHEARED SHRTWV SHOULD PERSIST INTO THE              
EVENING HOURS...BUT THEN MAY TAPER OFF TO DRIZZLE OR NOTHING AFTER              
MIDNIGHT AS SYSTEM DEEPENS IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS. UKMET SUGGESTS                
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING MOVING OVER THE CWA BETWEEN 06-12Z MON WITH                 
850MB FLOW BECOMING DIVERGENT. WILL THEREFORE TONE DOWN PRECIP                  
WORDING A BIT AFTER MIDNIGHT. THIS DIMINISHING TREND IN RAIN IN                 
CONJUNCTION WITH EVEN HIGHER SURFACE DEWPOINTS ADVECTING INTO THE               
CWA LOOKS REALLY GOOD FOR DENSE FOG SETUP. ONLY QUESTION AREA FOR               
FOG IS MENOMINEE AND DELTA COUNTIES WHERE THE SNOWPACK IS ONLY A FEW            
INCHES. HAVE NOT ISSUED A DENSE FOG ADVISORY YET SINCE IT IS SECOND             
PERIOD...BUT HAVE HIT IT UP HARD IN THE GRIDS AND ZFP. AN ADVISORY              
WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED IF CONDITIONS FOR DENSE FOG STILL LOOK GOOD.              
AS FAR AS LOWS GO...TEMPERATURES SHOULD RISE THROUGH THE NIGHT DUE              
TO RISING DEWPOINTS.                                                            
MONDAY...CONTINUING TO FOLLOW THE UKMET...SHRTWV AND ASSOCIATED                 
UPPER LEVEL JET ARE PROGGED TO MOVE INTO CENTRAL UPPER MICHIGAN                 
AROUND 00Z TUE WHILE A 986MB LOW MOVES INTO SE MN. AS THIS SHRTWV               
APPROACHES...WARM AIR ADVECTION INTENSIFIES (CONFLUENCE AT 850MB)               
AND UPPER DIVERGENCE DEVELOPS FROM THE LEFT EXIT REGION...EXPECT                
BANDS OF SHOWERS TO MOVE IN BY LATE MORNING AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE            
AFTERNOON. SHOWALTER INDICES ARE PROGGED TO DROP TO AROUND                      
1C...THEREFORE ALSO EXPECTING SOME EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS. RAIN MAY             
TAPER OFF LATE IN MENOMINEE COUNTY AS THE DRY-SLOT ASSOCIATED WITH              
THE SHRTWV MOVES IN...BUT HAVE DECIDED NOT TO INCLUDE THAT SINCE IT             
IS STILL CONCEIVABLE OF THIS SYSTEM SLOWING DOWN MORE BASED ON MODEL            
TRENDS. RAISED HIGH TEMPERATURES ABOUT 5 DEGREES BASED ON LATEST MAV            
GUIDANCE AND GIVEN THE HIGH DEWPOINTS TO THE SOUTH. WOULD NOT BE                
SURPRISED TO HAVE TO RAISE TEMPERATURES MORE IF DEWPOINTS ARE TOO               
LOW.                                                                            
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...UPPER LOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER UPPER            
MICHIGAN BY 12Z TUE AND THEN LIFT INTO ONTARIO AS A NEW SHRTWV                  
TROUGH DROPS INTO THE PACIFIC NW. WITH THE UPPER LOW MOVING INTO THE            
CWA...MUCH OF THE AREA SHOULD BE DRY-SLOTTED MONDAY NIGHT. AS A                 
RESULT...HAVE ADDED THE CHANCE OF DRIZZLE TO THE RAIN. OTHER CHANGE             
WAS TO DELAY THE SWITCHOVER TO SNOW AS EVEN AT 12Z TUE...THE UKMET              
IS KEEPING 850MB TEMPS AROUND 0C. BETTER COLD AIR ADVECTION MOVES IN            
ON TUE AS THE UPPER LOW EXITS THE AREA. 850MB TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO             
DROP TO -6 TO -8C DURING THE AFTERNOON WHICH IS CLOSE TO HAVING LAKE            
EFFECT. A LITTLE COOLER AIR SHOULD MOVE IN TUESDAY NIGHT AND WITH               
THE NOCTURNAL CYCLE BETTER FOR LES AT NIGHT...THINK BETTER CHANCES              
FOR SNOW WILL THEREFORE BE TUESDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE                
ABOVE AVERAGE FOR MONDAY NIGHT BUT THEN FALL DURING THE DAY ON                  
TUESDAY AS COLD AIR ADVECTION TAKES HOLD.                                       
NO OTHER CHANGES MADE TO THE REST OF THE FORECAST.                              
&&                                                                              
.MQT...WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                           
   FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST FOR                                    
     MIZ002-004>006-009>014-084-085.                                            
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
AJ                                                                              
</PRE></TT></td>   mi                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI                                     
1153 PM EST SAT NOV 26 2005                                                     
.AVIATION...                                                                    
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION HAS RESULTED IN THE EXPANSION OF A                 
STRATUS DECK BASED AROUND 4500 FT ACROSS SOUTHERN MICHIGAN. SOME                
MVFR CEILINGS ARE LIFTING NORTH ACROSS INDIANA AND OHIO ASSOCIATED              
WITH SOME 925MB MOISTURE ADVECTION. BASED ON THE LATEST RUC...THESE             
CLOUDS SHOULD REACH THE DETROIT AREA AROUND 08Z AND MBS BY 10Z.                 
LOOKS LIKE THE BEST LIFT WILL ARRIVE INTO SE MICHIGAN IN A SERIES OF            
WAVES. THE FIRST SHOULD ARRIVE AFTER 10Z AS STRONG LOW LEVEL                    
MOISTURE ADVECTS NORTH ACROSS THE AREA. THE COMBINATION OF RAIN AND             
SNOWMELT WILL RESULT IN MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITY. THE NEXT AREA             
OF LIFT SHOULD ARRIVE LATE IN THE AFTERNOON AND PERSIST THROUGH THE             
END OF THE TAF PERIOD AS AN UPPER SHORT WAVE LIFTS ACROSS THE STATE.            
THE 18Z NAM AND GFS INDICATE A BRIEF PERIOD OF VFR CONDITIONS AROUND            
DETROIT IN THE MID AFTERNOON BEFORE THE NEXT WAVE ARRIVES...WITH FNT            
AND MBS REMAINING MVFR. WILL KEEP CEILINGS AND VISIBILITY MVFR LATE             
IN THE TAF PERIOD. PERSISTENT SURFACE MOISTURE ADVECTION OVER THE               
RECENT SNOWMELT MAY HOWEVER CREATE IFR OR LIFR VISIBILITIES TOWARD              
THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED.                  
&&                                                                              
.UPDATE... ISSUED AT 1032 PM                                                    
THE 03 SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING                      
FROM JUST NORTH OF CHICAGO ACROSS EXTREME SW LOWER MI...THEN INTO               
NORTH CENTRAL OHIO. THIS FRONT WILL SLOWLY PUSH NORTH DURING THE                
NIGHT. THETA E ADVECTION NEAR 850MB IS ONGOING ACROSS SOUTHERN                  
MICHIGAN AND IS RESULTING IN AN EXPANDING STRATUS DECK. THIS STRATUS            
WILL EVENTUALLY WORK INTO THE SAGINAW VALLEY AND THUMB DURING THE               
OVERNIGHT. WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION ABOVE THE NOCTURNAL BOUNDARY                 
LAYER AND WITH THE EXPANDING CLOUD COVER... TEMPS SHOULD SLOWLY RISE            
OVERNIGHT. THE 00Z UPPER AIR PLOTS SHOWED A MOISTURE GRADIENT NEAR              
700MB ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. THIS MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL LIFT INTO            
THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES OVERNIGHT AS AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE                  
SOUTHERN PLAINS LIFTS INTO THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THIS 700MB               
MOISTURE ADVECTION HAS TRIGGERED SOME RADAR RETURNS ACROSS NORTH                
CENTRAL OHIO. THUS THINK THE CURRENT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE SOUTH               
OVERNIGHT LOOK REASONABLE AS THE MOISTURE WORKS INTO THE AREA.                  
THE CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS TO HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON TEMPERATURE                 
TRENDS AND PRECIP CHANCES OVERNIGHT. SO NO UPDATE WILL BE ISSUED.               
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND SUNDAY                                                
SHORTWAVE OVER EASTERN TEXAS HAS MADE THE TURN TO THE                           
NORTHEAST...AND WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES LATE             
TOMORROW. THIS SHORTWAVE WILL DELIVER A NICE SURGE OF GULF MOISTURE             
TO LOWER MICHIGAN TOMORROW...RESULTING IN OVERRUNNING RAINFALL. 12Z             
NAM/GFS 295-290 K ISENTROPIC ANALYSIS SHOWING VARYING LIFT                      
THROUGHOUT THE DAY...MAKING THE TIMING OF RAINFALL A LITTLE                     
DIFFICULT. EVEN WHEN THE LIFT/FORCING IS LACKING...WILL LIKELY SEE              
SOME DRIZZLE WITH 40+ DEW POINTS RIDING OVER THE SNOWCOVER HERE IN              
SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN. THUS...OCCASIONAL RAIN AND FOG SHOULD COVER                 
TOMORROW JUST FINE. HAVE NOTED THE ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS                
SOUTHEAST MISSOURI EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. 12Z NAM DOES INDICATE THE              
SHOWALTER INDEX APPROACHING ZERO BY 12Z SUNDAY ACROSS SOUTHERN LOWER            
MICHIGAN. HOWEVER...WITH THE MAIN LOW LEVEL JET WEST OF THE                     
REGION...WILL KEEP THE MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS OUT...IN LINE WITH              
THE DAY 1 OUTLOOK ISSUED AT 1630Z.                                              
FOLLOWED GFS MOS GUIDANCE FOR TEMPS TOMORROW. HOWEVER...TONIGHT IS A            
DIFFERENT STORY. HAVE GONE 3-6 DEGREES COLDER THAN GUIDANCE. WITH               
LIGHT WINDS AND PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES THIS EVENING...TEMPS SHOULD DIVE            
QUICKLY WITH SNOW COVER AND DEW POINTS STILL HOVERING IN THE MID                
TEENS TO LOWER 20S. 12Z NAM INDICATING 3Z SUNDAY TEMPS IN THE LOWER             
20S ACROSS THE NORTH HALF OF THE CWA WHICH SEEMS REASONABLE...                  
ESPECIALLY WITH TEMPS STILL IN THE UPPER 20S AS OF MID AFTERNOON.               
12Z RUC13 IS EVEN FORECASTING SURFACE TEMPS IN THE TEENS OVER THE               
THUMB REGION. THAT SHOULD NOT HAPPEN UNLESS SKIES ARE CLEAR THIS                
EVENING...WHICH IS NOT IN THE FORECAST DUE TO WARM ADVECTION HIGH               
CLOUDS STREAMING IN FROM THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. THINKING TEMPS                
WILL BE JUST ABOVE FREEZING WHEN RAIN ARRIVES TOMORROW MORNING                  
ACROSS THE NORTH HALF...THUS NO MENTION OF FREEZING RAIN. WARM RAIN             
DROPS (850 MB TEMPS OF 5 C BY 12Z SUNDAY ACROSS NORTHERN THIRD OF               
CWA PER BLEND OF NAM/GFS) WITH A SURFACE TEMP OF 32 DEGREES SHOULD              
NOT CAUSE FREEZING ON CONTACT. NOT TO MENTION SOIL TEMPS ARE STILL              
ABOVE FREEZING UNDERNEATH THE SNOW.                                             
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY                                      
OVERALL FORECAST CHALLENGES REMAIN THE SAME AS STRONG STORM SYSTEM              
WRAPS UP THE WEST...FIRST BRINGING MUCH MILDER AIR IN LOWER MICHIGAN            
EARLY THIS WEEK AS IT FORCES A WARM FRONT NORTH OF THE AREA SUNDAY.             
THEREAFTER...COLD/OCCLUDED FRONT PROGRESSES THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY             
WITH THE ATMOSPHERE...IN GENERAL...STEADILY COOLING THE REMAINDER OF            
THE WEEK (BEFORE ANOTHER SYSTEM RACING ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF              
THE CONUS BRINGS SOME BRIEF MODIFICATION LATE IN THE FORECAST).                 
RAIN STILL LOOKS TO BE A GOOD BET ON MONDAY/MONDAY EVENING AS COLD              
FRONT SLOWLY PUSHES THROUGH THE AREA. THERE IS STILL SOME QUESTION              
AS TO WHETHER THERE WILL BE ANY THUNDER. VERY LITTLE INSTABILITY IS             
PROGGED...AND FORCING/CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT WILL NOT BE GREAT             
GIVEN FACT THAT OVERALL FLOW IS PARALLEL TO THE FRONT. THIS LEAVES              
THE DYNAMIC LIFT FROM THE SYSTEM...WHICH WILL BE DECENT...BUT WITH              
THE CORE OF THE STORM SO FAR WEST...NOT GREAT EITHER. GIVEN THE FACT            
THAT A LOT OF THE "INGREDIENTS" ARE MISSING/LACKING...WILL CONTINUE             
WITH JUST RAIN LIKELY AND NO THUNDER MENTION. DID ADJUST THE TIMING             
AS PROGRESSION OF THE FRONT IS SLOWER AND RAIN APPEARS TO BE A GOOD             
BET INTO MONDAY EVENING (AND LESS OF A LIKELIHOOD ON MONDAY MORNING             
AS WELL).                                                                       
THEREAFTER...THE TRANSITION FROM RAIN TO SNOW BECOMES THE ISSUE AS              
COLDER AIR FILTERS IN MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...ALTHOUGH INTENSITY             
BY THAT TIME WILL BE VERY LIGHT PRECIPITATION (MORE SHOWERY-TYPE).              
WILL ADJUST TIMING OF -RASN MIX TO TUESDAY MORNING AND ALL -SHSN BY             
TUESDAY AFTERNOON AFTER COLLABORATION THIS AFTERNOON.                           
PATTERN REMAINS LARGELY UNSETTLED IN COLD UPPER TROF FOR THE REST OF            
THE FORECAST. WILL ADJUST THE PERIOD WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT TO               
DENOTE A LULL IN THE SNOW SHOWERS WITH JUST A FLURRY MENTION...AND              
THEN BRING THE CHANCE OF MEASURABLE LIGHT SNOW BACK THURSDAY AND                
MORE OR LESS INTO THE WEEKEND AS NEXT SYSTEM SLIDES INTO THE LAKES              
REGION. VERY LITTLE CONFIDENCE IN HOW TO HANDLE DAYS 5-7. SEEMS THE             
BETTER CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW WILL COME IN THE THURSDAY/FRIDAY AREA               
GIVEN TIMING OF THE PACIFIC SYSTEM THAT RIDES INTO THE AREA...AND               
THEN A BRIEF QUIET PERIOD HEADING INTO NEXT WEEKEND. THE PROBLEM IS             
THAT THE ERRORS IN THIS PATTERN COULD EASILY CHANGE THE TIMING OF               
THE SYSTEM (AND SUBSEQUENT ONES) BY A SOLID DAY. WILL TRY NOT TO GET            
TOO CUTE WITH THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME.                                        
&&                                                                              
.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
MI...NONE.                                                                      
LAKE HURON...NEARSHORE WATERS FROM PORT AUSTIN TO HARBOR                        
   BEACH...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY....LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH                
   LATE TUESDAY NIGHT.                                                          
   NEARSHORE WATERS FROM HARBOR BEACH TO PORT HURON AND FOR SAGINAW             
   BAY...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH LATE TUESDAY             
   NIGHT.                                                                       
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.                                                           
MI WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.                                                  
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHORT TERM...SF                                                                 
LONG TERM....DG                                                                 
AVIATION/UPDATE.....CONSIDINE                                                   
YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE            
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).                                    
</PRE></TT></td>   mi                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC                                             
245 AM EST SUN NOV 27 2005                                                      
.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)...                                    
TODAY THROUGH MONDAY: HEALTHY STRIP OF CONVECTION IS PUSHING INTO               
ALABAMA THIS MORNING WITH IMPRESSIVE GRAVITY WAVES SHOWING UP ON IR             
SATELLITE IMAGERY. HIGH CLOUDS CONTINUE TO STREAM INTO NC FROM THE              
SOUTHWEST BUT THE DENSER OVERCAST OF MID AND LOWER LEVEL CLOUDS ARE             
ON OUR DOORSTEP. SHOWERS GENERATED BY 850 MB MOISTURE FLUX                      
CONVERGENCE ATTENDING THE NORTHEASTWARD MOVING COASTAL FRONT HAVE               
MOVED ONSHORE OVER COASTAL SC... AND THE RUC/NAM/GFS ALL AGREE ON               
QUICKLY INCREASING ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE TODAY ON THE 290-295 K                    
SURFACES... WHILE THE APPROACH OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND                    
SUBTROPICAL JET FROM THE SOUTHWEST INCREASES UPPER DIVERGENCE AND               
MOISTURE INFLOW ALOFT WITH MINOR AMOUNTS OF MID LEVEL POSITIVE                  
VORTICITY ADVECTION. HAVE BROUGHT IN CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE SOUTH               
LATER THIS MORNING THROUGH MIDDAY... THEN WILL HAVE A PERIOD OF                 
LIKELY POPS THIS AFTERNOON AS SKIES GO MOSTLY CLOUDY EVERYWHERE. GFS            
RAINFALL PATTERN LOOKS A BIT MORE REALISTIC THAN THE NAM WHICH GRABS            
ONTO SOME 850 MB CONVERGENCE IN EASTERN NC AND FOCUSES AN INORDINATE            
AMOUNT OF RAIN THERE. DO ANTICIPATE QPF TO BE LESS THAN MODEL                   
PREDICTIONS DUE TO THE GULF COAST CONVECTION WHICH COULD INDUCE WEAK            
DOWNSTREAM RIDGING OVER NC THIS AFTERNOON. LITTLE CHANGE IS NEEDED              
TO CURRENT HIGHS WITH NORTHWEST CWA... WHERE THE WEAK SURFACE-BASED             
STABLE POOL WILL BE THE LAST TO GO... TOPPING OUT AT JUST 50-52 WITH            
READINGS NEAR 60 IN THE SOUTHWEST CWA. WITH THE EXIT OF THE UPPER               
JET AND A LOSS OF ANY SUBSTANTIAL FORCING... PLUS WITH CENTRAL NC               
EXPECTED TO GET MOSTLY INTO THE WARM SECTOR (EXCEPT FOR MAYBE THE               
TRIAD AREA) WITH BRIEF MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE RIDGING... SHOWERS SHOULD            
DECREASE TO SCATTERED (WEST) TO ISOLATED (EAST) TONIGHT AND CONTINUE            
THROUGH MONDAY. DIFFUSE ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE HANGS ON SO CONSIDERABLE             
CLOUDINESS IS LIKELY BUT UPPER LEVELS SHOULD DRY OUT BETWEEN TROUGHS            
AS NOTED UPSTREAM ON THE 700 & 500 MB UPPER AIR ANALYSES. EXPECT                
AREAS OF FOG TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT WITH LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS.                   
CURRENT VERY MILD LOWS IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S LOOK GOOD AND                
AGREE WITH AVERAGE OF LATEST MOS GUIDANCE. HIGHS 61-72 MONDAY.                  
TUESDAY: THE NEXT ROUND OF SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS                  
APPEARS IMMINENT WITH ALL MODEL PARAMETERS POINTING TO DEEP MOISTURE            
AND SUFFICIENT FORCING FROM THE LEFT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE UPPER               
JET ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE MID LEVEL VORTEX LIFTING ACROSS THE U.P.            
OF MICHIGAN TOWARD JAMES BAY. WILL HANG ONTO CURRENT CATEGORICAL                
POPS AS AT LEAST SOME RAINFALL LOOKS INESCAPABLE GIVEN THIS AMOUNT              
OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INFLUX. LOWS 55-60 AND HIGHS 64-72. -GIH                  
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...                                      
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE CURRENT DRY AND MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY            
CLOUDY FORECAST WITH PREVAILING BROAD CYCLONIC MID LEVEL FLOW                   
THROUGH THE PERIOD. A DEEP UPPER VORTEX WOBBLES FROM MICHIGAN INTO              
EASTERN CANADA KEEPING MINOR INEFFECTUAL PERTURBATIONS PASSING                  
THROUGH NC WITH A DRY WESTERLY BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW. LOW LEVEL                   
THICKNESSES OFF THE 00Z/27 GFS DROP TO MORE THAN 50 M BELOW NORMAL              
FOR FRIDAY/SATURDAY WHICH WOULD TRANSLATE TO HIGHS IN THE 40S TO                
AROUND 50... NOT FAR OFF CURRENT FORECAST TEMPS. -GIH                           
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL ADVECT ATLANTIC MARITIME MOISTURE                     
LATE THIS MORNING AND INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON. AS A                            
RESULT...CEILINGS WILL LOWER TO MVFR/IFR AND LIGHT RAIN WILL                    
EXPAND FROM SOUTH TO NORTH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. LOWER MISS                 
VALLEY S/W TROUGH WILL APPROACH FROM THE SOUTHWEST AFTER                        
18Z...BRINGING A SECONDARY FLUX OF MOISTURE AND PRECIP FROM 18 TO               
00Z. RAIN SHOULD END FROM SOUTH TO NORTH AS S/W TROUGH MOVES NORTH              
OF THE AREA ~06Z...HOWEVER IFR/LIFR CEILINGS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE AS            
1000-850 S/SE FLOW CONTINUES. -BL                                               
&&                                                                              
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
NONE.                                                                           
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHORT TERM...HARTFIELD                                                          
LONG TERM...HARTFIELD                                                           
AVIATION...LOCKLEAR                                                             
</PRE></TT></td>   nc                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC                                             
1124 PM EST SAT NOV 26 2005                                                     
.SHORT TERM (REST OF TONIGHT)...                                                
CURRENT TEMPS ARE ALREADY RUNNING NEAR OR LOWER THAN OUR FORECAST               
LOWS MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE COUNTY WARNING                  
AREA... AND DEWPOINTS ARE ALSO RUNNING A LITTLE LOWER THAN                      
FORECAST VALUES. HAVE SENT A QUICK UPDATE TO GRAPHICAL AND TEXT                 
PRODUCTS.                                                                       
&&                                                                              
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...                                                         
(ISSUED 806 PM EST SAT NOV 26 2005)                                             
SHORT TERM (REST OF TONIGHT)...                                                 
CIRRUS MOVING INTO FORECAST AREA BUT THINNING AS IT PUSHES INTO                 
THE UPPER RIDGE. OVERNIGHT THE RIDGE MOVES EAST AND EXPECT AN                   
INCREASE IN OPAQUE CIRRUS LATE...BUT OVERALL THE REST OF THE NIGHT              
SHOULD BE PARTLY CLOUDY ON AVERAGE. 18Z GFS SEEMS TO BE VERIFYING               
BEST WITH AREA OF LESSER ENHANCED CLOUDS SHOWING UP AS A RELATIVE               
MIN OF RH ON UPPER-LEVEL RH PROG AND THIS RELATIVE MINIMUM IS                   
FORECAST BY THAT MODEL TO PUSH INTO CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA LATE.                
AGAIN...PARTLY CLOUDY THE RULE OVERNIGHT...ALTHOUGH SOME AREAS                  
SHOULD BECOME MOSTLY CLOUDY LATE PARTICULARLY WEST AND FAR                      
SOUTHERN ZONES.                                                                 
BROAD SPECTRUM OF TEMPERATURES OVER CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA WITH                 
COLDEST READINGS GENERALLY NORTH AND NORTHEAST OF THE TRIANGLE                  
WHERE OBSERVATIONS AND MSAS SHOW DEW POINTS BEING THE LOWEST. HAVE              
LOWERED TEMPERATURES MOST ZONES FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...ESPECIALLY            
TOWARD THE NORTHEAST WHERE READINGS DURING MID EVENING WERE                     
CREEPING CLOSE TO FORECAST MINS. ONSET OF CIRRUS AND SLOWLY                     
INCREASING DEW POINTS SHOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM FALLING TOO                 
FAR TOO FAST...BUT HAD TO BREAK OUT LEE AND JOHNSTON COUNTIES                   
BECAUSE OF LOCAL OBSERVATIONS SHOWING COOL READINGS. DEW POINTS                 
THERE ALREADY APPROACHING 30 OR BETTER AND DROP SHOULD BE SLOW FOR              
THE REST OF THE NIGHT. GRIDDED AND WORDED FORECAST UPDATES ISSUED.              
THANKS TO GSP AND AKQ FOR EVENING COORDINATION.                                 
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...                                                          
(ISSUED 246 PM EST SAT NOV 26 2005)                                             
SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)...                                         
12Z RAOB ANALYSIS SHOWED GOOD MOISTURE COMING NORTH AT 850MB OUT OF             
THE WESTERN GULF AHEAD OF THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHERN                    
PLAINS.  SUBTROPICAL JET EXISTED FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE              
CAROLINAS WITH GOOD DIFFLUENCE OVER THE WESTERN GULF ON WATER VAPOR             
IMAGERY.  HIGH CLOUDS HAVE DEVELOPED AND THICKENED DURING THE                   
AFTERNOON PARTICULARLY OVER SOUTHERN ZONES...ALTHOUGH VISIBLE AND IR            
IMAGES SHOW CONSIDERABLE THINNING OFF TOWARD THE WEST.  THE RUC                 
HIGH-LEVEL RH FIELDS SUGGEST CIRRUS SHOULD DIMINISH SOME THIS                   
EVENING BEFORE THE NAM AND GFS SPREAD HIGH AND SOME MID-LEVEL CLOUDS            
BACK IN OVERNIGHT.                                                              
UPPER RIDGE MOVES THROUGH CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA EARLY SUNDAY WITH              
GOOD DIFFLUENCE IN ITS WAKE.  BOTH THE NAM AND THE GFS SUGGEST                  
INCREASING LIFT AND MOISTURE BY 18Z SUNDAY WITH SHORTWAVES AT 500MB             
AND 700MB MOVING ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY AFTERNOON.  NIL LOW-LEVEL               
CONVERGENCE SO ALL LIFT IS ISENTROPIC...AND THERE IS SOME CONCERN               
THAT JET DYNAMICS FROM FLORIDA ACROSS GEORGIA WILL RESULT IN MORE               
PRECIPITATION THERE VERSUS AREAS FARTHER NORTH SUNDAY AFTERNOON.                
WILL LIMIT POPS TO HIGH CHANCE FOR NOW...ALTHOUGH ANTICIPATE AT                 
LEAST AREAS OF VERY LIGHT RAIN SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS MID-LEVELS                   
MOISTEN WITH THE ISENTROPIC LIFT.  WITH INCREASING MOISTURE AND                 
SURFACE RIDGING REMAINING INTACT WARMING SHOULD BE LIMITED SUNDAY               
AND HAVE LOWERED MAXES A CATEGORY OR TWO.  MODEL SOUNDINGS ALSO                 
SUPPORT THIS WITH STRONG LOW-LEVEL INVERSION IN PLACE.                          
DIFFICULT PART OF THE FORECAST IS LATER SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY             
NIGHT...DUE TO DIFFERENCES IN THE GFS VERSUS THE NAM.  THE LATTER IS            
MUCH DRIER PARTICULARLY TOWARD THE COASTAL PLAIN DUE TO ITS HIGHER              
AMPLITUDE RIDGE LOCATED CLOSER TO THE ATLANTIC COAST.  AS A                     
RESULT...SUBSIDENCE IS HIGHER ON THE NAM AND DEEPER MOISTURE REMAINS            
SHUNTED WELL WEST...EVEN TO A LARGE DEGREE WEST OF THE TRIAD.  BOTH             
THE NAM AND THE GFS FORECAST WEAK UVV PARTICULARLY IN WESTERN ZONES             
MONDAY...AND PLAN TO DEFER SLIGHTLY TO THE GFS DUE TO THE STRENGTH              
OF THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND THE AMOUNT OF                  
MOISTURE MOVING NORTH ON THE LATEST RAOB ANALYSIS OVER THE GULF.                
WITH EXACT RIDGE POSITION UNCERTAIN...PRUDENT TO CONTINUE CHANCE                
POPS WEST TO SLIGHT CHANCE EAST THOUGH FEEL AT THIS POINT PERIODS OF            
PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE LIMITED WITH AMOUNTS LIGHT.                             
GFS HAS TRENDED SLOWER FROM ITS 00Z AND EVEN 06Z RUNS WITH THE                  
EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THE SURFACE FRONT TUESDAY AND TUESDAY                   
NIGHT...IN PART COURTESY OF WAVES ALONG THE FRONT AND ITS POSITIVE              
TILT IN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.  THIS COULD RESULT IN PERIODS OF              
MODERATE RAINFALL ALONG THE FRONT WITH GOOD LIFT FORECAST BY BOTH               
THE NAM AND THE GFS.  JET SUPPORT AT 300MB AND 500MB REMAINS BEST               
WEST AND NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA...BUT LOW-LEVEL WIND FIELDS ARE             
STRONG...40KTS OR GREATER ABOVE 925MB.  INSTABILITY SHOULD BE                   
LIMITED TUESDAY DUE TO CLOUDS...HOWEVER...MEAGER BREAKS IN WARM AND             
MOIST AIR MASS COULD RESULT IN MARGINAL INSTABILITY...ENOUGH FOR                
THUNDER.  MODEL SOUNDINGS ARE NOT IMPRESSIVE REGARDING INSTABILITY...           
AND LIFTED INDICES BOTH FROM THE NAM AND THE GFS EEK EVER SO                    
SLIGHTLY BELOW ZERO TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH CAPE FORECAST BETWEEN 100            
AND 500J/KG.  HAVE DECIDED TO RAISE POPS TUESDAY GIVEN CONSENSUS OF             
FRONTAL LOCATION FROM THE NAM AND GFS...WITH HIGHEST POPS WEST.                 
LONG TERM (TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)...                                   
MOIST...SOUTHERLY FLOW AND DECENT LIFT ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE                   
FRONT...ALONG WITH THE SURFACE WAVES...RESULT IN GOOD CHANCES FOR               
SHOWERS CONTINUING FOR A LARGE PART OF TUESDAY NIGHT WITH THE                   
HIGHEST POPS TOWARD THE I-95 CORRIDOR.  WILL LIMIT THUNDER CHANCES              
FOR THE NIGHTTIME HOURS TUESDAY CENTRAL AND EAST IMMEDIATELY ALONG              
THE FRONT.  CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE...AND EVEN THE SLOWER GFS...HAS               
THE COLD FRONT EAST OF CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA BY 12Z WEDNESDAY AND              
ANTICIPATE DRY CONDITIONS BY SUNRISE WEDNESDAY WITH DIMINISHING                 
CLOUDS WEDNESDAY MORNING.                                                       
SUBSIDENCE WILL BE THE RULE FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK AFTER TUESDAY              
NIGHT.  SURFACE RIDGING WILL PREVAIL SOUTH ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF              
OF MEXICO...AND THOUGH ANOTHER COLD FRONT SHOULD PUSH ACROSS THE                
STATE LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY AS ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH MOVES                   
THROUGH...SURFACE MOISTURE SHOULD BE LIMITED AND THE GFS KEEPS MOST             
OF THE ENERGY NORTH OF THE STATE.  ALTHOUGH THE DGEX IS MORE                    
AMPLIFIED WITH THE UPPER TROUGH AND FORECASTS DECENT MID-LEVEL                  
VORTICITY TO MOVE OVER CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA FRIDAY WITH SLIGHTLY              
MORE MOISTURE...ITS QPF REMAINS DRY.  ENSEMBLE MOS POPS ARE ALMOST              
ALL BELOW CLIMATOLOGY SO WILL MAINTAIN THE DRY FORECAST FOR THE BULK            
OF THE LONG-TERM PERIOD WITH TEMPERATURES WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF               
SEASONAL NORMS.                                                                 
AVIATION...                                                                     
THIN BKN CIRRUS SPREADING OVER CENTRAL NC THIS AFTERNOON WILL REMAIN            
AROUND 25KFT THROUGH MIDNIGHT. MODEL RUNS THIS AFTERNOON HAVE BECOME            
MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH MOISTURE INCREASING IN THE LOWER LEVELS SUNDAY             
MORNING. THE NAM IS FASTER AT INCREASING LOW CLOUDS EARLY SUNDAY                
MORNING AND THIS FORECAST LEANS MORE TOWARDS THE SLOWER GFS. BOTH               
MODELS SHOW STRONG OVERRUNNING SETTING UP BY MID TO LATE MORNING                
WITH A LOW LEVEL JET OF 30KT. EXPECT A RAPID INCREASE OF MID AND LOW            
CLOUDS SUNDAY MORNING. MVFR CONDITIONS SHOULD DEVELOP FROM SUNRISE              
THROUGH MID MORNING. CEILINGS WILL CONTINUE TO LOWER THROUGH THE                
LATE MORNING HOURS APPROACHING VFR CONDITIONS BY AFTERNOON.                     
OVERRUNNING LIFT WILL ALSO GENERATE SOME PRECIP FROM LATE MORNING               
INTO THE AFTERNOON RESULTING IN LIMITED VISIBILITIES FOR EARLY AND              
MID AFTERNOON. EXPECT MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS TO PERSIST THROUGH MUCH            
OF SUNDAY AFTERNOON.                                                            
&&                                                                              
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
NONE.                                                                           
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHORT TERM...HARTFIELD                                                          
</PRE></TT></td>   nc                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI                                           
1015 PM CST SAT NOV 26 2005                                                     
.UPDATE...HAVE EXPANDED THE FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY INTO CNTRL WISCONSIN         
AND EXTENDED THE END TIME FOR A FEW OF THE NORTHERN COUNTIES. LATEST            
MODEL RUNS SHOW LIGHT FREEZING RAIN OR RAIN DEVELOPING OVER C/EC WI             
BETWEEN 09-12Z...WITH ENOUGH LLVL MOISTENING FOR FREEZING DRIZZLE OVER          
N WI. THE RUC HAD A GOOD HANDLE ON SFC TEMPS AT 03Z...AND SHOWS TEMPS           
REMAINING BLO FREEZING ACROSS ALL BUT THE FOX VALLEY/LKSHR AREAS LATE           
TONIGHT INTO SUN MORNING. DEPT OF TRANSPORTATION ROAD TEMP SENSORS SHOW         
ROAD SFCS WELL BLO FREEZING ACROSS THE ENTIRE FCST AREA...NOT SURPRISING        
SINCE MOST OF THE AREA HAS BEEN WELL BLO FREEZING SINCE LAST WEDS NGT.          
EXPECT ROAD SFCS TO SLOWLY RESPOND TO WARMING SFC TEMPS...BUT IT'S              
LIKELY THAT LOCAL FREEZING PRECIP WILL CONTINUE FOR SEVERAL HOURS AFTER         
SFC TEMPS RISE ABOVE FREEZING. ALTHOUGH WAUSHARA COUNTY AND THE FOX             
VALLEY HAVE NOT BEEN ADDED TO THE ADVY ATTM...NEXT SHIFT WILL NEED TO           
MONITOR THESE AREAS CLOSELY...AS THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR SOME ICING.           
HAVE KEPT A MENTION OF RAIN OR FREEZING RAIN IN THE FCST FOR THESE AREAS        
LATE TONIGHT.                                                                   
UPDATED ADVISORY STATEMENT AND ZONE FORECASTS HAVE BEEN SENT. GRIDDED           
FCST WILL BE UPDATED SHORTLY.                                                   
DISCUSSION FROM PREVIOUS SHIFT...                                               
.SHORT TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. FORECAST CHALLENGE IS              
POTENTIAL FOR FREEZING DRIZZLE OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING ACROSS             
PARTS OF CWA. SOUTHEAST WINDS AT SURFACE ARE EXPECTED TO BRING LOW-LEVEL        
MOISTURE FROM LAKE MICHIGAN OVER LAND AREAS WHICH HAVE BEEN BELOW               
FREEZING FOR A FEW DAYS... CAUSING FREEZING DRIZZLE TO DEVELOP. THE             
FREEZING DRIZZLE IS EXPECXTED TO PERSIST INTO LATE SUNDAY MORNING ACROSS        
THE FAR NORTH. SYNOPTIC SCALE RAIN WILL FOLLOW ON SUNDAY WITH THE               
EXPECTATION THAT LOW LEVELS WILL HAVE WARMED SUFFICIENTLY TO ABOVE              
FREEZING...EVEN ACROSS THE FAR NORTH. KEPT TEMPERATURES AND WINDS FROM          
PREVIOUS MAIN FORECAST.                                                         
.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY.                                
WITH MOST OF THE ATTENTION FOCUSED ON THE SHORT TERM...THE EXIT OF THE          
APPROACHING SYSTEM WAS THE MAIN CONCERN DURING THIS PERIOD. LITTLE...IF         
ANYTHING...WAS CHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.                              
LIQUID PCPN CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY. THEN COLD AIR WRAPS AROUND          
THE LOW AND BRINGS A CHANCE OF SNOW BACK THE THE NORTHWEST 2/3 OF THE           
AREA MONDAY EVENING...AND THE ENTIRE AREA BY 12Z TUE. A CHANCE OF SNOW          
SHOWERS REMAINS FOR TUE...AND FLURRIES ARE POSSIBLE TUE EVENING AS THE          
SYSTEM PULLS AWAY WISCONSIN.                                                    
&&                                                                              
.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY 3 AM TO 11 AM SUNDAY                                     
WIZ005-010>013-018-019-021                                                      
FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY 3 AM TO 9 AM SUNDAY                                      
WIZ020-030-031-035>037-073-074-                                                 
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
KIECKBUSCH                                                                      
WEATHER.GOV/GREENBAY                                                            
</PRE></TT></td>   wi                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ                                              
820 AM MST SUN NOV 27 2005                                                      
.SYNOPSIS...A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER COLORADO WILL CONTINUE            
TO PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS AND FEED MUCH COLDER AIR TO THE REGION. DRY              
CONDITIONS WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FOR THE START            
OF THE WEEK...WITH A SLOW WARMING TREND UNDER WEAK HIGH PRESSURE FOR            
THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK.                                                    
&&                                                                              
.DISCUSSION...HAVE RUN OUT AN UPDATE TO HANDLE SHORT-TERM TRENDS,               
BUT FOR THE MOST PART THE FORECAST AND CURRENT HEADLINES ARE HANDING            
THIS HIGHLY DYNAMIC SITUATION QUITE WELL. POWERHOUSE 140KT JET                  
EXTENDING DOWN TO 400MB IS KNIFING ACROSS NE AZ INTO INTO NM.                   
POTENTIAL VORTICITY CROSS SECTIONS SHOW THE ATTENDING TROPOPAUSE                
FOLD ALL THE WAY DOWN NEAR THE SURFACE OVER SE AZ. DEWPOINTS ARE                
CRASHING AS EXPECTED WITH RUC AND LAPS BOTH SHOWING SYNOPTIC                    
DOWNWARD VERTICAL MOTION ON THE ORDER OF 15 MICROBARS/SEC. 12Z KTUS             
SOUNDING SHOWED 90KT WINDS JUST ABOVE THE LOWERING SUBSIDENCE                   
INVERSION /AT ABOUT 14KFT/. AS EXPECTED BY OUR PREDECESSORS, VALLEY             
WINDS FELL OFF A BIT JUST BEFORE SUNRISE DUE TO A BIT OF DECOUPLING,            
BUT THEY'RE ALREADY STARTING TO PICK UP AGAIN. RAWS SITES ARE                   
CONFIRMING GUST POTENTIAL TO 50MPH IN THE E CWA, MOST LIKELY AROUND             
NOON BEFORE THE TIGHTEST GRADIENT SHIFTS E AND THE STRONG LOW LEVEL             
COLD ADVECTION STARTS TO SUPPRESS MIXING. THE SNOW FORECAST IN ZONE             
19 WORKED OUT WITH HANNAGAN MEADOW REPORTING 2 INCHES A SHORT TIME              
AGO. THE FORECAST UPDATE INCLUDES A MENTION OF BLOWING DUST IN ZONES            
30/35, A CHANGE TO JUST FLURRIES IN ZONE 19 AS THE SUBSIDENCE                   
INVERSION CONTINUES TO LOWER, AND SLIGHTLY HIGHER WINDS FROM KTUS W.            
HAVE ALREADY TALKED TO AZ DPS AND GRAHAM/COCHISE COUNTIES ABOUT                 
POTENTIAL FOR MORE SERIOUS BLOWING DUST. WE'LL BE KEEPING CLOSE TABS            
ON THAT BETWEEN KTUS AND THE NM LINE, ESPECIALLY SINCE THIS IS A BIG            
HOLIDAY TRAVEL DAY ON I-10.                                                     
NO CHANGES IN THE OUT PERIODS. WE'RE LIKELY TO SEE AT LEAST A DECENT            
FREEZE IN KTUS METRO TONIGHT, EVEN IF THE WINDS DO STAY UP A BIT                
THIS EVENING. LONG WARNING DURATION IS BECAUSE SHELTERED AREAS ARE              
LIKELY TO SEE A GOOD 6-8HRS OF <32F TEMPS AND PERHAPS LOWS IN THE               
MID 20S. WINTER HAS ARRIVED.                                                    
&&                                                                              
.FIRE WEATHER...WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE A PROBLEM TODAY E OF KTUS             
WITH WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS RUNNING 25 TO 35 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 50.             
DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE...AND SOME LOCATIONS WILL FALL BELOW 15            
PERCENT MINIMUM RH VALUES FOR A TIME THIS AFTERNOON. SINCE THERE IS             
ALSO A HIGH FIRE DANGER RATING...A RED FLAG WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED.            
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...TAF AND TWEBS ADEQUATELY COVER ALL SIGNIFICANT WEATHER              
AT KTUS.                                                                        
&&                                                                              
.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...WIND ADVISORY THROUGH 5 PM FOR               
 ZONES 019/030/035.                                                             
 RED FLAG WARNING THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING FOR EASTERN FIRE             
 WEATHER ZONE 148.                                                              
 FREEZE WARNING TONIGHT FOR ZONES 029/032/033.                                  
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
PYTLAK                                                                          
WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON                                                              
</PRE></TT></td>   az                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR                                         
958 AM CST SUN NOV 27 2005                                                      
.UPDATE...                                                                      
WILL GET OUT AN UPDATE TO GET RID OF THE MORNING SHOWERS. A LOT OF              
LOW CLOUDS ARE ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING BUT NO PRECIP IS                    
INDICATED ON KLZK RADAR. UPDATED TEMPERATURES IN THE GRIDS BASED ON             
CURRENT OBSERVATIONS AND TRENDS. MAX TEMPS LOOK FINE AT THIS POINT.             
COLD FRONT STILL IN CENTRAL KANSAS AND WESTERN OKLAHOMA MOVING EAST.            
AS THE LOW APPROACHES WINDS WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA AND THE               
LAKE WIND ADVISORY WILL CONTINUE. MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER               
CONTINUES ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. INCLUDED                  
MENTION OF SEVERE WEATHER IN THE AFTERNOON PERIOD AS STORMS MAY                 
GENERATE BY LATE AFTERNOON...22Z-23Z.                                           
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION.../ISSUED 315 AM CST SUN NOV 27 2005/                          
SHORT TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT                                     
PRECIPITATION TOOK A WHILE TO MAKE IT INTO THE CWA SATURDAY AND                 
LOOKING BACK...IT APPEARS THE GFS ACTUALLY HAD THE BETTER TIMING.               
WITH OVERRRUNING EVENT WRAPPING UP EARLY THIS MORNING...ITS TIME TO             
CONCENTRATE ON THE DEVELOPING CONVECTIVE EVENT SLATED FOR LATER THIS            
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. WHILE NAM AND GFS ARE BOTH DEEPER AND SLOWER             
WITH THE SYSTEM TONIGHT...STILL LIKE THE GFS SOLUTION. BASED ON THE             
CONTINUITY OF THE GFS AND ITS HANDLING OF THE SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH             
NOW...SEE NO REASON TO DEVIATE AWAY FROM IT.                                    
OVERRUNNING/WARM AIR ADVECTION PRECIPITATION CONTINUING TO MOVE                 
TOWARDS THE NORTH AS WEAKENING MID LEVEL WAVE OVER THE CENTRAL GULF             
COAST LIFTS OFF TO THE NORTHEAST. MAJORITY OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL            
BE OVER BY PRESS TIME BUT WILL STILL HOLD ON TO SOME MINIMAL POPS               
EARLY OVER THE NORTHEAST PART OF THE CWA AS RUC13 MODEL HOLDS ON TO             
SOME LIGHT PRECIP THROUGH MID MORNING. MAJORITY OF THE DAY WILL BE              
DRY AS AREA WILL BE BETWEEN SYSTEMS BUT RAIN CHANCES WILL BE                    
INCREASING ONCE AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON AS NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES                  
FROM THE WEST.                                                                  
MAJOR PLAYERS STILL SHOWING UP QUITE NICELY ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY              
THIS MORNING...MAINLY THE EXITING MID LEVEL WAVE AND THE VIGOROUS               
UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM CURRENTLY OVER THE ROCKIES. DEEP TROF EVIDENT                
JUST SOUTH OF THE 4 CORNERS WITH STRONG IMPULSE ROTATING THROUGH ITS            
BASE ACROSS NORTHERN ARIZONA/NEW MEXICO. SYSTEM STILL LOOSELY                   
ORGANIZED AT THE MOMENT BUT BUT EXPECTED TO QUICKLY INTENSIFY LATER             
THIS MORNING AS IT LIFTS OUT INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS.                           
LEE CYCLOGENESIS ALREADY UNDERWAY OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. SURFACE              
LOW ALSO EXPECTED TO DEEPEN RAPIDLY THIS MORNING IN RESPONSE TO THE             
EXIT REGION OF MID LEVEL JET MOVING THROUGH. SURFACE LOW EXPECTED TO            
BE IN NORTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA BY MID DAY AND RACING OFF INTO SOUTHERN            
IOWA BY MONDAY MORNING. PROJECTED PATH WOULD KEEP AREA IN WARM                  
SECTOR THE ENTIRE DAY WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS PROVIDING GOOD MOISTURE              
RETURN. GRADIENT BETWEEN SYSTEMS LOOKS PRETTY TIGHT AND WILL HOIST A            
LAKE WIND ADVISORY FOR THE ENTIRE CWA FOR TODAY.                                
EXPECTING SQUALL LINE TO DEVELOP IN ADVANCE OF THE ATTENDANT COLD               
FRONT THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS WHICH WILL THEN SWEEP              
THROUGH THE STATE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. STRONG DIFFLUENCE            
NOTED ALOFT ALONG WITH GOOD SURFACE CONVERGENCE BUT INSTABILITY                 
APPEARS MARGINAL AT BEST RIGHT NOW. HOWEVER...THERE IS SOME CONCERN             
THAT COULD CHANGE. WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER TODAY SHOULD KEEP                     
INSTABILITY IN CHECK BUT ANY SIGNIFICANT CLEARING COULD LEAD TO                 
EXPLOSIVE DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE FRONT. BIGGEST THREAT APPEARS TO BE             
STRAIGHT LINE WINDS WITH FAST MOVING LINE WHICH WILL BE LOCATED NEAR            
THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER NEAR MIDNIGHT.                                            
WILL END THE PCPN ACROSS THE AREA FROM WEST TO EAST SUNDAY EVENING              
AS FRONT MOVES THROUGH. AFTER SOME BRIEF CLEARING SUNDAY NIGHT/EARLY            
MONDAY...LARGE SLUG OF MOISTURE WILL ROTATE AROUND THE MAIN LOW                 
MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY AS TROF AXIS PASSES THROUGH.             
NO PRECIPITATION EXPECTED. TEMPERATURES WILL COOL OF INITIALLY                  
BEHIND THE FRONT WITH STRONGER COLD AIR AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THE                
PASSAGE OF THE TROF.                                                            
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS BY MIDDAY                  
TUESDAY FOR DRY AND COOL CONDITIONS TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL                  
MODERATE WEDNESDAY AS CENTER OF THE HIGH MOVES EAST AND WINDS RETURN            
TO A SOUTHERLY DIRECTION AND FLOW ALOFT STARTS TO BECOME MORE ZONAL.            
MAV NUMBERS LOOK PRETTY GOOD BUT WILL GO ABOVE GUIDANCE ON WEDNESDAY.           
LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY                                           
LARGE VORTEX TO OUR NORTHEAST WILL CONTINUE MOVING AWAY FROM THE                
STATE WHILE RIDGE AMPLIFIES TO OUR WEST. H5 RIDGE WILL BE JUST EAST             
OF AR BY 00Z SUN...AND IT WILL BE CLOSE TO THE EAST COAST BY SUNDAY             
MORNING. IN THE MEANTIME...ANOTHER LONG WAVE TROF WILL BE TRAVERSING            
THE ROCKIES. THE SURFACE PATTERN WILL BEGIN THE PERIOD WITH A COLD              
FRONT HAVING JUST EXITED THE SOUTHEAST CORNER OF THE STATE. HIGH                
PRESSURE WILL PUSH DRIER AIR OVER THE STATE FROM THE NORTH...WHILE              
HOLDING OFF GULF MOISTURE ALONG THE COAST BY 00Z FRIDAY. HIGHER RH              
VALUES WILL MOVE NORTH THROUGH LA OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING...              
BUT THEY DO NOT QUITE PUSH INTO THE STATE. I WILL HAVE TO HOLD OFF              
ANY MENTION OF RAIN UNTIL LATE IN THE DAY SATURDAY. TEMPS WILL BE               
CLOSE TO NORMAL THURSDAY...AND THEY WILL TAKE A DIP BELOW NORMAL FOR            
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.                                                            
&&                                                                              
.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM SUNDAY FOR ARZ003-ARZ004-ARZ005-                  
ARZ006-ARZ007-ARZ012-ARZ013-ARZ014-ARZ015-ARZ016-ARZ021-ARZ022-                 
ARZ023-ARZ024-ARZ025-ARZ030-ARZ031-ARZ032-ARZ033-ARZ034-ARZ037-                 
ARZ038-ARZ039-ARZ040-ARZ041-ARZ042-ARZ043-ARZ044-ARZ045-ARZ046-                 
ARZ047-ARZ052-ARZ053-ARZ054-ARZ055-ARZ056-ARZ057-ARZ062-ARZ063-                 
ARZ064-ARZ065-ARZ066-ARZ067-ARZ068-ARZ069.                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
51                                                                              
</PRE></TT></td>   ar                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO                                              
432 AM MST SUN NOV 27 2005                                                      
.SHORT TERM...                                                                  
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)                                                             
MAIN SHORT TERM CONCERNS CONTINUE TO BE EFFECTS OF PASSING SYSTEM.              
CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATING               
STRONG 140+ KT JET CORE EXTENDING FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST ACROSS             
THE SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN AND INTO CENTRAL NEW MEXICO...CARVING OUT              
A BROAD UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL ROCKIES ATTM.              
AT THE SFC...1-3MB 3 HRLY PRESSURE FALLS CONTINUING OUT AHEAD OF                
SYSTEM WITH MSAS DATA INDICATING 989MB LOW ACROSS THE OK PANHANDLE              
ATTM. REGIONAL RADARS INDICATING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS                  
ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SW MTS...ALONG WITH DEVELOPING ECHOES                    
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS ATTM.                                               
TODAY...MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON DEVELOPING                   
VERTICALLY STACKED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ACROSS THE OK PANHANDLE THIS             
MORNING...AS STRONG JET CORE CONTINUES TO MOVE INTO WESTERN TEXAS.              
THIS SYSTEM THEN CONTINUES TO LIFT OUT ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH                  
PLAINS...ALLOWING FOR STRONG CAA TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE EASTERN                  
PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON. IR IMAGERY INDICATING ENHANCED VERTICAL                  
MOTION ACROSS THE PLAINS ATTM...AND HAVE KEPT CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS             
ACROSS SOUTHEAST COLORADO THIS MORNING...WITH BEST POPS ACROSS THE              
EASTERN NEW MEXICO BORDER. BEST POPS SPREAD OUT ACROSS THE FAR SE               
PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON...WITH DEVELOPING DEFORMATION ZONE. GUSTY                 
NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS OF 30 TO 40 MPH EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON                
ACROSS THE PLAINS AS WELL...WITH STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT DEVELOPING            
AS STACKED LOW BEGINS TO MOVE EAST. WITH STRONG CAA...HAVE KEPT                 
TEMPS GENERALLY BELOW GUIDANCE...WITH HIGHS LATE THIS MORNING AND               
FALLING TEMPS INTO THE AFTERNOON. HAVE DECIDED TO CANCEL SNOW                   
ADVISORY FOR THE CENTRAL AND SW MTS (ZONES 58>60 AND 66)...AS                   
DESPITE GOOD CAA AND INSTABILITY...LIMITED MOISTURE WILL KEEP SNOW              
AMOUNTS BETWEEN 1 AND 4 INCHES OF FLUFFY SNOW.                                  
TONIGHT...VERTICALLY STACKED SYSTEM CONTINUES TO LIFT OUT ACROSS                
THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...WITH WINDS SLOWLY DIMINISHING FROM WEST TO            
EAST ACROSS THE THE PLAINS AS PRESSURE GRADIENT BEGINS TO RELAX.                
WITH COLD AND DRY AIR IN PLACE ACROSS THE PLAINS...WILL SEE CHILLY              
OVERNIGHT LOWS...THOUGH WINDS WILL KEEP TEMPS FROM DROPPING TOO                 
MUCH. CAA CONTINUES ACROSS THE CENTRAL MTS...THOUGH MOISTURE REMAINS            
LIMITED AND HAVE KEPT SCATTERED POPS IN PLACE WITH SOME LIGHT                   
ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT. -MW                                           
.LONG TERM...                                                                   
(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)                                                       
MAIN CHALLENGES ARE CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION...AND TEMPERATURES                 
IN THE LONG TERM.                                                               
MONDAY...LOOKS LIKE WINDS WILL STILL BE STRONG OVER THE FAR                     
SOUTHEASTERN PLAINS DURING THE DAY WITH 700MB WINDS STILL OVER 60               
KNOTS.  GUSTS AT THE SURFACE WILL LIKELY BE AROUND 40 MPH OR                    
INFREQUENTLY HIGHER. COLD AIR ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE CWFA WITH                   
READINGS FROM -7 TO -14 DEGREES AT 700MB.                                       
TUESDAY...FLOW FROM THE WEST-NORTHWEST BRINGS IN SOME WARMER AIR                
ALOFT SO BOOSTED HIGH TEMPERATURES AND KEPT THE SMALL CHANCES FOR               
SNOW SHOWERS IN THE FAVORED CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS.                    
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...MODELS HINT AT BRINGING IN SOME COOLER                 
AIR...BUT WITH LIMITED MOISTURE...LOOKS LIKE BEST CHANCES FOR                   
MEASURABLE SNOW WILL BE IN THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AGAIN.                         
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...UPPER FLOW TRANSITIONED TO MORE WEST THEN WEST-           
SOUTHWEST...WHICH WILL BRING IN MILDER AIR AGAIN...AND MAINLY DRY               
WEATHER...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS.  THIS IS IN              
ADVANCE OF NEXT COLD FRONT WHICH COULD MOVE IN ON SUNDAY.                       
&&                                                                              
.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                        
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</PRE></TT></td>   co                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL                                         
853 AM EST SUN NOV 27 2005                                                      
.DISCUSSION...A SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS LIFTING NEWD ACROSS THE GULF               
COAST STATES THIS MORNING. A WARM FRONT IS MOVING SLOWLY NWD ACROSS             
THE NRN GULF. AREA RADARS SHOW AN AREA OF RAIN IN THE REGION OF DPVA            
AHEAD OF THE SHORT WAVE. THIS AREA ALSO CORRESPONDS TO THE REGION OF            
MAXIMUM ISENTROPIC ASCENT OVER THE WARM FRONT ON THE 295 K SURFACE              
PER THE LATEST RUC. LIGHTNING HAS BEEN DIMINISHING STEADILY AS THE              
PRECIPITATION MOVES INTO A MORE STABLE AIR MASS. HOWEVER...AN                   
ISOLATED TS IS STILL POSSIBLE OVER THE GULF. ANY THAT DO MAKE IT TO             
THE COAST WILL BE ELEVATED OVER THE STABLE LAYER, SO DESPITE VERY               
FAVORABLE SHEAR PROFILES, SEVERE WEATHER IS BECOMING LESS OF A                  
CONCERN. THE SHORT WAVE WILL SWEEP QUICKLY EWD TODAY, AND THE                   
ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL WEAKEN WITH TIME. THEREFORE, WE EXPECT HIGHEST             
POPS THIS MORNING. WE WILL UPDATE THE FORECAST TO ACCOUNT FOR RADAR             
TRENDS AND TO REMOVE TS OVER INLAND AREAS.                                      
&&                                                                              
.MARINE...WINDS AND SEAS REMAIN AT ADVISORY LEVELS AT THE OFFSHORE              
BUOYS S OF THE WARM FRONT. N OF THE BOUNDARY, WINDS ARE LIKELY A BIT            
LIGHTER. OF COURSE, THERE'S NO DATA IN THIS AREA, BUT JUDGING BY                
WHAT WE'RE SEEING AT THE COASTAL ASOS STATIONS, THE CAUTION HEADLINE            
IS LIKELY SUFFICIENT FOR THE NEAR SHORE LEGS. WINDS WILL DIMINISH               
THIS AFTERNOON, BUT SEAS WILL TAKE A BIT LONGER INTO THIS EVENING TO            
DROP BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA. ONSHORE WINDS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED                
UNTIL COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE ON TUE, AND FOR A BRIEF TIME AFTER THE               
WIND SHIFT BEFORE, SUBSIDING LATER IN THE WEEK.                                 
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...MVFR CIGS AND VSBY SHOULD PREVAIL IN THE RAIN AREA                  
INCLUDING DHN AND PFN THIS MORNING, WITH OCCASIONAL DIPS INTO THE               
IFR RANGE. TO THE E, MORNING IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS WILL TAKE A BIT                
LONGER THAN NORMAL TO LIFT TODAY, WITH VSBY IMPROVING FIRST. CIGS               
WILL EVENTUALLY LIFT TO VFR THIS AFTERNOON AT ALL THE TERMINALS.                
OVERNIGHT, WE EXPECT A RETURN OF IFR/LIFR CIGS AND MVFR TO IFR VSBY             
AT THE INLAND TAF SITES, WITH VLIFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE AT ABY AND              
VLD.                                                                            
&&                                                                              
.FIRE WEATHER...NO CONCERNS UNTIL WED.                                          
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION...                                                             
144 AM EST SUN NOV 27 2005                                                      
SHORT TERM...AS THE S/W TO THE WEST ROTATES AROUND THE UPR LOW OVER             
THE CENTRAL CONUS...IT WILL LIFT TO OUR NORTH AND KEEP MOST OF THE              
ENERGY OUT OF OUR AREA. THIS WILL MOST LIKELY MEAN THAT THE LINE OF             
SHRA/TSRA WILL START TO DIMINISH BEFORE IT MAKES IT OVER INTO OUR               
AREA. STILL LOOKING FOR MID-RANGE CHANCE POPS HOWEVER IN OUR WESTERN            
AND NORTHERN ZONES TODAY...THEN DROPPING TO LOW END CHANCE FOR ALL              
AREAS TONIGHT. PRETTY CONFIDENT IN LOWERING POPS TONIGHT BUT NEXT               
QUESTION MARK IS GOING TO BE MONDAY. THE GFS AND NOW ETA HAVE BEEN              
MVG AN AREA OF TROPICAL MOISTURE NORTH THROUGH THE EASTERN                      
GULF...AND INTO OUR AREA EARLY MONDAY. THIS WOULD CALL FOR AN                   
INCREASE IN POPS ON MONDAY AHEAD OF THE FRONT THAT WILL KEEP POPS IN            
THE HIGH-END CHANCE TO LIKELY CATEGORY THROUGH TUES.                            
LONG TERM...MODELS HAVE BEEN PRETTY CONSISTENT AND AGREEABLE ON                 
FROPA THE FIRST PART OF TUES. LIKELY POPS THEREFORE MON NIGHT                   
THROUGH TUES MORNING...THEN TAPERING OFF WEST TO EAST BY TUES AFTN.             
TEMPS WILL DROP BACK TO AROUND NORMAL ON WEDNESDAY THEN REMAIN AT OR            
BELOW CLIMO THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH A REINFORCING SHOT OF COOL AND             
DRY AIR ON FRIDAY. ALTHOUGH THE MEX COULD BE OVER-DOING THE COLD AIR            
THIS WEEKEND...LOWS SHOULD BE DOWN INTO AT LEAST THE MID 30S BOTH               
SAT AND SUN.                                                                    
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
TALLAHASSEE  75 62 74 63 / 30 30 50 60                                          
PANAMA CITY  75 65 76 63 / 50 30 50 60                                          
DOTHAN       72 60 74 60 / 50 30 60 60                                          
ALBANY       73 60 74 61 / 40 30 50 60                                          
VALDOSTA     76 60 76 62 / 30 30 50 60                                          
CROSS CITY   80 61 77 64 / 20 30 50 60                                          
&&                                                                              
.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
AL...NONE.                                                                      
GA...NONE.                                                                      
FL...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY OFFSHORE WATERS.                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
CURRENT DISCUSSION...WOOL                                                       
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...MCNATT                                                    
</PRE></TT></td>   fl                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE                                            
515 AM CST SUN NOV 27 2005                                                      
.DISCUSSION...SIMPLY PUT...MAIN ISSUE IS POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT              
WINTER STORM FROM LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON THRU MONDAY.                            
MODEL OF CHOICE WAS THE UKMET. MOST CONSISTENT THE LAST TWO DAYS                
AND OTHER OPERATIONAL MODELS (NAM/GFS) HAVE COME ITS DIRECTION.                 
SHARP AND MEANDERING BAROCLINIC BOUNDARY OVER THE CWFA AT THIS                  
TIME. THIS BOUNDARY IS WELL HANDLED BY THE RUC13 SURFACE                        
DEPICTIONS. IT IS FORECAST TO ONLY SLOWLY MOVE EAST THROUGH                     
EARLY AFTERNOON BEFORE GETTING ALONG A BIT QUICKER.                             
UKMET AND NOW MODEL SWEAT POINT TOWARD A MAJOR WINTER STORM                     
POSSIBLE LATER TODAY. FRONTOGENETIC FORCING IS VERY HIGH.                       
SHARP AND POWER-HOUSE JET WILL RESULT IN RAPID DEEPENING OF THE                 
APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SUNDAY EVENING. UNSEASONABLE               
MOISTURE AVAILABILITY INITIALLY FOR THE AREA. ISENTROPIC LIFT MAXED             
SUNDAY EVENING...BUT CONTINUES THROUGHOUT THE DAY MONDAY.                       
FINALLY...POTENTIAL FOR VERY HIGH WINDS...30 TO 50 MPH...                       
AND NEAR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS. ALL OF THIS HAS TAKEN THE                         
FORECAST TO WINTER STORM WARNING WESTERN AREAS LATER TODAY                      
THROUGH MONDAY.                                                                 
ONE MAIN QUESTION IS HANGING OUT THERE ON THIS FORECAST. FIRST AND              
FOREMOST IS THE COLD AIR. EVENING UPPER AIR RUNS DON/T HAVE A WHOLE             
LOT OF COLD. THERE IS MARGINAL COLD AIR AT THE SURFACE UP TO THE                
CANADIAN BORDER.                                                                
THERE MAY SOME QUESTION OF MOISTURE. THOUGH SUFFICIENT AMBIENT                  
MOISTURE IS IN PLACE...WEATHER SYSTEM HAS CLEARED THE DEEPER (H85)              
MOISTURE A BIT FROM THE GULF. UNFAVORABLE FLOW LAST EVENING. WORRY              
THAT SQUALL LINE LATE SUNDAY EVENING COULD UNDERCUT ADDITIONAL                  
MOISTURE AND LIMIT SNOW AMOUNTS DOWN FROM A VERY HEAVY CATEGORY...              
ESPECIALLY FROM ABOUT 10Z TO 15Z MONDAY...BEFORE MORE MOISTURE                  
IS ABLE TO WRAP INTO THE AREA...AT THAT TIME ACROSS NORTHERN                    
AREAS.                                                                          
HIGHLY CONDITIONAL FORECAST IS BASED UPON A CHANGE OVER OF SNOW                 
LATE THIS AFTERNOON WESTERN CWFA...AND EXPECTATION OF A HEAVY SNOW              
BAND 60 TO 80 MILES WIDE CENTERED ALONG HIGHWAY 183. 06Z RUNS                   
CAME IN A BIT FURTHER WEST. SECOND ISSUE IS THE WIND...AND WHILE                
SNOW AMOUNTS MAY STRUGGLE FOR /HEAVY SNOW CRITERIA/ WINDS OF                    
30 TO 50 MPH CREATE POTENTIAL FOR BLIZZARD LIKE CONDITIONS.                     
THEREFORE...FELT THE RISK WARRANTED A WARNING FOR WESTERN AREAS                 
AND ADVISORIES FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST. THIS SEEMS TO ALIGN                      
OKAY WITH NEARBY OFFICES...AND DAYSHIFT WILL HAVE TO MONITOR                    
FOR ANY EXPANSION...MOST LIKELY FURTHER SOUTH INTO PHILLIPS                     
AND ROOKS COUNTY KANSAS.                                                        
THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR SOME THUNDERSTORMS IN THE SOUTHEAST                      
CWFA AS WELL...AND DAYSHIFT WILL ALSO HAVE TO MONITOR THAT.                     
ONLY EDITS TO THE FORECAST WERE WITHIN THE FIRST 48 HOURS.                      
&&                                                                              
.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
NE...WINTER STORM WARNING LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY WEST OF            
A ST. PAUL TO FRANKLIN LINE.                                                    
SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW ADVISORY REST OF THE SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA               
TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY.                                                         
KS...SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW ADVISORY LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH               
MONDAY.                                                                         
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
NOAA/NWS/MORITZ                                                                 
</PRE></TT></td>   ne                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC                               
934 AM EST SUN NOV 27 2005                                                      
.SHORT TERM (TODAY)...PRECIP SPREADING INLAND OVER NORTHEAST SOUTH              
CAROLINA AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA IN WARM ADVECTION                 
PATTERN. BASED ON RADAR...BULK OF PRECIP WILL REMAIN WEST OF OUR                
CWA FOR AWHILE...BUT THINK WESTERN CWA WILL HAVE BEST CHC OF                    
SEEING SOME PRECIP THRU THE AFTERNOON HOURS. MADE MINOR CHANGES TO              
GRIDS AND WILL UPDATE TO REMOVE MORNING WORDING. DESPITE FAIRLY                 
EXTENSIVE CLOUD SHIELD...THE LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION SHOULD ALLOW              
TEMPS TO REACH FCST HIGHS AROUND 60 WEST TO MIDDLE 60S EAST.                    
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...LOWER CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE IN AS THE ATMOSPHERE             
MOISTENS UP. LIGHT RAIN WILL SPREAD IN THIS AFTERNOON. VISIBILITIES             
GENERALLY NO LOWER THAN 5 MILES. CEILINGS WILL BE MVFR THROUGH THE              
PERIOD. SURFACE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT NORTHEAST TODAY THEN VEER TO                
SOUTHEAST LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING.                                 
&&                                                                              
.MARINE...NORTHEAST FLOW ACROSS THE WATERS AT PRESENT. LATEST                   
COASTAL AND OFFSHORE OBS MATCH UP WELL. LATEST RUC40 DELAYS WESTWARD            
MOVEMENT OF COASTAL TROF UNTIL LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS                    
EVENING. THE SHIFT TO EAST WINDS WILL OCCUR OVER THE SOUNDS AND                 
NORTH OF CAPE HATTERAS THIS AFTERNOON...AND SHIFT TO SOUTHEAST FOR              
THE WATERS SOUTH OF CAPE HATTERAS LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THE ZONES                
WERE WORDED ACCORDINGLY. NO OTHER CHANGES MADE.                                 
&&                                                                              
.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
NC...NONE.                                                                      
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR AMZ150-152-154-156-158 FROM 7 PM              
     SUNDAY TO 7 PM THURSDAY.                                                   
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHORT TERM...COLLINS                                                            
AVIATION...AUSTIN                                                               
MARINE...AUSTIN                                                                 
</PRE></TT></td>   nc                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC                                             
652 AM EST SUN NOV 27 2005                                                      
.SHORT TERM (REST OF TODAY)...                                                  
HAVE JUST SENT A QUICK UPDATE TO GRAPHICAL AND TEXT PRODUCTS TO                 
ACCOUNT FOR A SLIGHTLY QUICKER ENTRANCE OF THE OVERCAST SKIES AND TO            
BRING IN RAIN CHANCES A FEW HOURS SOONER IN THE SOUTH THIS MORNING.             
&&                                                                              
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...                                                         
(ISSUED 245 AM EST SUN NOV 27 2005)                                             
SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)...                                     
TODAY THROUGH MONDAY: HEALTHY STRIP OF CONVECTION IS PUSHING INTO               
ALABAMA THIS MORNING WITH IMPRESSIVE GRAVITY WAVES SHOWING UP ON IR             
SATELLITE IMAGERY. HIGH CLOUDS CONTINUE TO STREAM INTO NC FROM THE              
SOUTHWEST BUT THE DENSER OVERCAST OF MID AND LOWER LEVEL CLOUDS ARE             
ON OUR DOORSTEP. SHOWERS GENERATED BY 850 MB MOISTURE FLUX                      
CONVERGENCE ATTENDING THE NORTHEASTWARD MOVING COASTAL FRONT HAVE               
MOVED ONSHORE OVER COASTAL SC... AND THE RUC/NAM/GFS ALL AGREE ON               
QUICKLY INCREASING ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE TODAY ON THE 290-295 K                    
SURFACES... WHILE THE APPROACH OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND                    
SUBTROPICAL JET FROM THE SOUTHWEST INCREASES UPPER DIVERGENCE AND               
MOISTURE INFLOW ALOFT WITH MINOR AMOUNTS OF MID LEVEL POSITIVE                  
VORTICITY ADVECTION. HAVE BROUGHT IN CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE SOUTH               
LATER THIS MORNING THROUGH MIDDAY... THEN WILL HAVE A PERIOD OF                 
LIKELY POPS THIS AFTERNOON AS SKIES GO MOSTLY CLOUDY EVERYWHERE. GFS            
RAINFALL PATTERN LOOKS A BIT MORE REALISTIC THAN THE NAM WHICH GRABS            
ONTO SOME 850 MB CONVERGENCE IN EASTERN NC AND FOCUSES AN INORDINATE            
AMOUNT OF RAIN THERE. DO ANTICIPATE QPF TO BE LESS THAN MODEL                   
PREDICTIONS DUE TO THE GULF COAST CONVECTION WHICH COULD INDUCE WEAK            
DOWNSTREAM RIDGING OVER NC THIS AFTERNOON. LITTLE CHANGE IS NEEDED              
TO CURRENT HIGHS WITH NORTHWEST CWA... WHERE THE WEAK SURFACE-BASED             
STABLE POOL WILL BE THE LAST TO GO... TOPPING OUT AT JUST 50-52 WITH            
READINGS NEAR 60 IN THE SOUTHWEST CWA. WITH THE EXIT OF THE UPPER               
JET AND A LOSS OF ANY SUBSTANTIAL FORCING... PLUS WITH CENTRAL NC               
EXPECTED TO GET MOSTLY INTO THE WARM SECTOR (EXCEPT FOR MAYBE THE               
TRIAD AREA) WITH BRIEF MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE RIDGING... SHOWERS SHOULD            
DECREASE TO SCATTERED (WEST) TO ISOLATED (EAST) TONIGHT AND CONTINUE            
THROUGH MONDAY. DIFFUSE ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE HANGS ON SO CONSIDERABLE             
CLOUDINESS IS LIKELY BUT UPPER LEVELS SHOULD DRY OUT BETWEEN TROUGHS            
AS NOTED UPSTREAM ON THE 700 & 500 MB UPPER AIR ANALYSES. EXPECT                
AREAS OF FOG TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT WITH LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS.                   
CURRENT VERY MILD LOWS IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S LOOK GOOD AND                
AGREE WITH AVERAGE OF LATEST MOS GUIDANCE. HIGHS 61-72 MONDAY.                  
TUESDAY: THE NEXT ROUND OF SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS                  
APPEARS IMMINENT WITH ALL MODEL PARAMETERS POINTING TO DEEP MOISTURE            
AND SUFFICIENT FORCING FROM THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE UPPER              
JET ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE MID LEVEL VORTEX LIFTING ACROSS THE U.P.            
OF MICHIGAN TOWARD JAMES BAY. WILL HANG ONTO CURRENT CATEGORICAL                
POPS AS AT LEAST SOME RAINFALL LOOKS INESCAPABLE GIVEN THIS AMOUNT              
OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INFLUX. LOWS 55-60 AND HIGHS 64-72. -GIH                  
LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...                                       
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE CURRENT DRY AND MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY            
CLOUDY FORECAST WITH PREVAILING BROAD CYCLONIC MID LEVEL FLOW                   
THROUGH THE PERIOD. A DEEP UPPER VORTEX WOBBLES FROM MICHIGAN INTO              
EASTERN CANADA KEEPING MINOR INEFFECTUAL PERTURBATIONS PASSING                  
THROUGH NC WITH A DRY WESTERLY BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW. LOW LEVEL                   
THICKNESSES OFF THE 00Z/27 GFS DROP TO MORE THAN 50 M BELOW NORMAL              
FOR FRIDAY/SATURDAY WHICH WOULD TRANSLATE TO HIGHS IN THE 40S TO                
AROUND 50... NOT FAR OFF CURRENT FORECAST TEMPS. -GIH                           
AVIATION...                                                                     
WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL ADVECT ATLANTIC MARITIME MOISTURE                     
LATE THIS MORNING AND INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON. AS A                            
RESULT...CEILINGS WILL LOWER TO MVFR/IFR AND LIGHT RAIN WILL                    
EXPAND FROM SOUTH TO NORTH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. LOWER MISS                 
VALLEY S/W TROUGH WILL APPROACH FROM THE SOUTHWEST AFTER                        
18Z...BRINGING A SECONDARY FLUX OF MOISTURE AND PRECIP FROM 18 TO               
00Z. RAIN SHOULD END FROM SOUTH TO NORTH AS S/W TROUGH MOVES NORTH              
OF THE AREA ~06Z...HOWEVER IFR/LIFR CEILINGS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE AS            
1000-850 S/SE FLOW CONTINUES. -BL                                               
&&                                                                              
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
NONE.                                                                           
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHORT TERM...HARTFIELD                                                          
</PRE></TT></td>   nc                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC                              
1024 AM EST SUN NOV 27 2005                                                     
.SHORT TERM (REST OF TODAY)...                                                  
WITH THE WEDGE SETTING UP...HAVE LOWERED MAX HIGHS FOR TODAY.                   
PRECIP HAS ASSISTED IN THE SUPPRESSION OF THE                                   
TEMPERATURES...ESPECIALLY IN THE EAST. MANY OTHER GRIDS WERE                    
TWEAKED IN ACCORDANCE WITH THE LATEST OBSERVATIONS AND SATELLITE                
IMAGES. OMEGA SETS UP OVER THE MOUNTAINS ON THE RUC LATE THIS                   
AFTERNOON BUT HAD LITTLE RESPONSE IN THE MODEL FOR PRECIP.                      
OVERALL...I HAVE RAISED POPS EVERYWHERE...MORE SO WHERE RAIN WAS                
MOVING ACROSS OR TOWARD.                                                        
THE LAKE WIND ADVISORY FOR THE SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS IS MARGINAL AT               
THIS POINT...BUT WITH ALL CONSIDERED...I CANNOT DROP IT FOR THIS                
AFTERNOON. LIGHT WIND AT THE LOWER ELEVATIONS. THERE IS SOME                    
SOMEWHAT BREEZY CONDITIONS AT THE HIGHER POINTS AND WILL GET                    
BREEZIER AS WE PROGRESS TOWARD THE END OF THE DAY.                              
&&                                                                              
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...                                                         
(ISSUED 359 AM EST SUN NOV 27 2005)                                             
SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)...                                     
ATLANTIC MOISTURE ADVECTING INTO THE MIDLANDS AND SOUTHERN                      
UPSTATE PER LATEST REGIONAL COMPOSITE AND FOG PRODUCT. EXPECT                   
EARLY MORNING PRECIPTATION TO BE LIGHT AND MAINLY SCATTERED IN                  
NATURE. ISENTROPIC LIFT INCREASES THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE PIEDMONT            
AND UPSLOPE AREAS SHOULD SEE THE BEST CHANCES OF PRECIP THROUGH                 
THE EVENING HOURS. ISSUED A LAKE WIND ADISORY FOR THE SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS        
TODAY AS PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTEN RAPIDLY WITH DEEPENING WESTERN               
LOW.                                                                            
A RELATIVE MINIMA IN ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY                
MORNING AS RETREATING SFC HIGH REDUCES LOW LEVEL LIFT. DECENT CONVERGENCE       
ZONE SETS UP ACROSS EASTERN TENNESSEE MONDAY AFTERNOON AND WILL BE              
SHIFTED EAST AS UPPER TROF SWINGS OUT OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS. WILL               
CONFINE LIKELY POPS TO THE MOUNTAINS MONDAY AFTERNOON AND SHIFT                 
EAST DURNING THE EVENING. SOME THUNDER IS STILL ANTICIPATED AS H85              
JET REACHES 50 KTS AND UPPER DIVERGENCE MAXIMIXES. ALSO...HIGH                  
DEWPOINTS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS SHOULD MAKE DYNAMIC LIFTING MORE                 
EFFICIENT AS WELL. EXPECT PRE-FRONTAL ACTIVITY TO CROSS THE CWFA                
THROUGH TUESDAY AND GENERALLY WEAKEN...HOWEVER AREAL COVERAGE                   
SHOULD BE HIGH ENOUGH TO KEEP POPS FAIRLY HIGH.                                 
LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...                                       
COOL/DRY HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND FRONT SETTLES OVER AREA WED/THU.                  
ANOTHER FRONT REINFORCES COOL AIR FROM NW THU NIGHT...ACCOMPANIED BY            
ONLY MEAGER MOISTURE. COOLER/DRIER RIDGE OF A MORE NORTHERLY SOURCE             
REGION MOVES INTO AREA SAT.                                                     
AVIATION...                                                                     
LLVL ISENTROPIC LIFT AND MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD NORTH OVER             
A WEDGED AIR MASS LATE TONIGHT AND TOMORROW. CAD CONDITIONS ARE                 
EXPECTED TO MATURE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED              
TO GRADUALLY BECOME IFR AFTER 18Z SAT. IN ADDITION...DZ AND -RA                 
SHOULD DEVELOP OVER THE TERMINALS DURING THE LATE MORNING AND LATE              
AFTERNOON RESPECTIVELY AND REMAIN THROUGH THE REST OF THE TAF                   
PERIOD.                                                                         
&&                                                                              
.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
GA...NONE.                                                                      
NC...LAKE WIND ADVISORY FOR NCZ051-052-058-059-062>064 UNTIL 6 PM               
     SUNDAY.                                                                    
SC...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHORT TERM...DEO                                                                
</PRE></TT></td>   sc                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC                                          
916 AM EST SUN NOV 27 2005                                                      
.SHORT TERM /THIS AFTERNOON/...A STRONG WEDGING PATTERN IS IN PLACE             
THIS MRNG WITH LGT PCPN OVR THE MIDLANDS AND PEE DEE HELPING TO                 
REINFORCE IT. HAVE SERIOUS DOUBTS THAT THE WEDGE WL BREAK DOWN AS               
QUICKLY AS WHAT THE NAM AND GFS SOLNS SUGGEST ESP GIVEN THAT SFC                
PRESSURES ARE STILL RISING INLAND. PLAN TO STICK CLOSER TO THE                  
LATEST RUC OUTPUT WHICH KEEPS THE WEDGE FIRMLY IN PLACE THROUGH THE             
AFTN AND HOLDS THE COASTAL TROF OVR THE COASTAL WTRS. FOR THIS                  
REASON...WE WL LWR TEMPS BY 10-15 DEGS AND INCR CLOUD COVER TO                  
CLOUDY ALL AREAS WITH THE MRNG UPDATE. CONTD WK ISENTROPIC LIFT WL              
KEEP A CHANCE FOR LGT PCPN GOING THROUGH THE DAY WITH A FAIRLY HIGH             
POTENTIAL FOR DRIZZLE. THANKS FFC/ILM/CAE FOR THE COORD.                        
&&                                                                              
.MARINE...TRICKY FCST THIS MRNG WITH THE COASTAL TROF BASICALLY                 
BISECTING THE NEARSHORE WTRS. WNDS AT 41004 AND THE TYBEE TWRS ARE              
SELY WHILE THE VARIOUS CARO-COOPS SITES ALONG THE SC COAST ARE                  
SOLIDLY N TO NE. WITH THE COASTAL TROF NOT XPCTD TO MOVE MUCH                   
FARTHER TO THE W TDA...PLAN TO SLIT THE NEARSHORE WTRS WND FCST                 
SHOWING NE WNDS WITHIN 10 NM OF THE COAST AND SE WNDS BEYOND 10 NM.             
SEAS AT SPAG1 HAVE DROPPED BELOW 5 FT FOR THE FIRST TIME IN SEVERAL             
HRS AFTER PEAKING AROUND 7 FT AROUND 2 AM. SUSPECT SEAS HAVE DROPPED            
BELOW 6 FT ACROSS MUCH OF THE GA OFFSHORE WTRS SO WL PUSH BACK THE              
BEGINNING TIME OF THE SCA INTO TNGT AS IT DOES NOT APPEAR THAT SCA              
CONDITIONS WL BE MET THIS AFTN INTO THIS EVNG. THANKS OPC FOR THE               
COORD.                                                                          
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...HAVE RECENTLY UPDATED BOTH TERMINALS FOR MUCH MORE                  
PESSIMISTIC CONDITIONS OVR THE NXT 6-8 HRS. STRONG WEDGE WL KEEP IFR            
AND LOW END MVFR CIGS GOING FOR MUCH OF THE DAY AS THE MODELS APPEAR            
TOO QUICK IN BREAKING DOWN THE WEDGE THIS AFTN. WL LIKELY MAKE                  
ADDITIONAL ADJUSTMENTS WITH 18Z TAF CYCLE.                                      
&&                                                                              
.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
GA...NONE.                                                                      
SC...NONE.                                                                      
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS BEGINNING                      
          TONIGHT FOR AMZ374.                                                   
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
ST                                                                              
</PRE></TT></td>   sc                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT                                      
420 AM MST SUN NOV 27 2005                                                      
.SYNOPSIS...A COLD...MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS WILL LINGER OVER THE            
AREA TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY RETURN MONDAY...BEFORE                   
ANOTHER PACIFIC SYSTEM SPREADS MOISTURE INTO THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT              
INTO TUESDAY.                                                                   
&&                                                                              
.DISCUSSION...DEEPENING UPPER LOW EVIDENT IN EARLY MORNING WATER                
VAPOR IMAGERY OVER THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES WITH 160KT 250MB JET                    
EXTENDING ALONG BACK SIDE OF LARGER SCALE CYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS NV               
INTO SOUTHERN AZ. VERY COLD AIR ALOFT /-32C AT 500MB AND -15C AT                
700MB PER RUC/ IN PLACE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING. THIS             
IS RESULTING IN AN UNSTABLE AIRMASS AND ALLOWING FOR DEVELOPMENT OF             
BANDED PRECIPITATION OVER THE GREAT SALT LAKE. THESE BANDS HAVE BEEN            
TRACKING SOUTHWARDS INTO EASTERN TOOELE COUNTY AND WESTERN SALT LAKE            
COUNTY OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS...AND EXPECT THESE TRAJECTORIES TO               
GENERALLY CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS AS LITTLE CHANGE IN                
WIND DIRECTION ALOFT IS INDICATED BY MODELS. HAVE CONTINUED HEAVY               
SNOW WARNING FOR ZONES 3 AND 4...WITH HEAVIEST SNOW EXPECTED ACROSS             
WESTERN SALT LAKE COUNTY. GIVEN TRAJECTORIES OFF LAKE...HAVE                    
CANCELED HEAVY SNOW WARNING FOR NORTHERN WASATCH FRONT. OTHERWISE               
GIVEN UNSTABLE AIRMASS AND NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT EXPECT SNOW TO              
CONTINUE ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN OF NORTHERN AND CENTRAL UT...AND HAVE            
CONTINUED GOING HEAVY SNOW WARNING THERE AS WELL. IN FACT SNOW                  
SHOWERS WILL LIKELY REMAIN ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN THROUGH MUCH OF THE            
DAY...AS PROG SOUNDINGS FROM NAM INDICATE WARMING ALOFT DOES NOT                
COMMENCE UNTIL THIS EVENING ACROSS NORTHERN UT. SURFACE HIGH                    
EXPECTED TO BRIEFLY SETTLE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT...AND               
GIVEN RECENT SNOWFALL EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO FALL BELOW GUIDANCE                
VALUES PARTICULARLY IN SHELTERED AREAS.                                         
AFTER TODAY...AN ACTIVE WEEK APPEARS IN STORE FOR THE MOUNTAINS OF              
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL UTAH. SHORTWAVE RIDGING PROGGED TO BUILD ACROSS            
THE AREA MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. AS THIS RIDGE AXIS PASSES EAST OF            
FORECAST AREA...STRONG WARM ADVECTION WILL LEAD TO ANOTHER ROUND OF             
SNOWFALL ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL MOUNTAINS MONDAY NIGHT INTO                
TUESDAY. THIS IS IN ADVANCE OF A NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE WHICH                
WILL BRUSH THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT...AND PUSH A COLD FRONT INTO                  
NORTHERN UTAH WEDNESDAY MORNING. MOIST WEST SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW LOOKS            
TO REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH FRIDAY...BEFORE YET ANOTHER                   
SHORTWAVE TROUGH PROGGED TO IMPACT THE AREA LATE FRIDAY INTO                    
SATURDAY.                                                                       
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...A MOIST NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS                   
MORNING. COINCIDENTALLY THIS IS THE CLIMATOLOGICAL PEAK OF RECEIVING            
LAKE-ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS AT SLC. EVEN SO THE TIMING OF SUCH SNOW              
SHOWERS OR SQUALLS REMAINS DIFFICULT SO WILL HAVE TO BROAD BRUSH                
WITH TEMPORARY MVFR CONDITIONS BUT THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR OCCASIONAL            
IFR AND LIFR...BUT THEIR DURATIONS SHOULD BE LESS THAN 15 MIN.                  
&&                                                                              
.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
UT...HEAVY SNOW WARNING THROUGH NOON ZONES UTZ002>004-006>010-017.              
     SNOW ADVISORY THROUGH NOON ZONES UTZ015-016.                               
     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM ZONE UTZ005.                                      
WY...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
PUBLIC...SEAMAN                                                                 
AVIATION...STRUTHWOLF                                                           
</PRE></TT></td>   ut                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
435 PM EST SUN NOV 27 2005                                                      
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
MAIN FCST CONCERNS ARE RAIN/FOG TRENDS TSRA CHANCES FOLLOWED BY                 
SN/LES POTENTIAL MID AND LATE WEEK.                                             
WV IMAGERY...12Z RAOBS AND RUC ANALYSIS INDICATED A VIGOROUS MID                
LEVEL LOW INTO THE SRN PLAINS. ONE SHRTWV WAS LIFTING NE THROUGH SRN            
WI WHILE ANOTHER WAS ON ITS HEELS OVER NRN MO IN ADVANCE OF 120 KT              
300 MB JET. AT THE SFC...A 989 MB TROF EXTENDED FROM CNTRL KS INTO              
THE TX/OK PANHANDLE. A WARM FRONT WAS DRAPED FROM SRN MN THROUGH SRN            
WI TO SRN LWR MI WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S SOUTH             
OF THE FRONT. THE COMBINATION OF QVECTOR CONV AND 295K-300K                     
ISENTROPIC LIFT AHEAD OF THE WI SHRTWV IN AN UNSEASONABLY MOIST                 
AIRMASS(PWAT NEAR 1.0 INCH) SUPPORTED WIDESPREAD RAIN ACRS NRN WI               
AND UPR MI. ALTHOUGH WARM/MOIST ADVECTION HAS BROUGHT DEWPOINTS                 
INTO THE MID AND UPPER 30S WITH AREAS OF FOG...THE RAIN HAS HELPED              
LIMIT DENSE FOG FORMATION SO FAR.                                               
TONIGHT...RADAR/SATELLITE TRENDS AND 18Z RUC SUGGEST PERIODS OF RAIN            
SHOWERS TO CONTINUE THIS EVENING AS WI SHRTWV GIVES WAY TO                      
ADDITIONAL FORCING FROM NEXT UPSTREAM SHRTWV. EXPECT RAIN TO BECOME             
MORE SCATTERED BY 03Z-06Z AS THE SECOND SHRTWV LIFTS OUT. AS THE                
PCPN TAPERS OFF EXPECT FOG TO BECOME MORE DENSE AND WIDESPREAD.                 
SO...DENSE FOG ADVY WAS ISSUED.                                                 
MON...EXPECT DENSE FOG TO LINGER INTO THE MORNING UNTIL RAIN AGAIN              
BECOMES MORE WIDESPREAD TOWARD AFTERNOON AS QVECTOR CONV AND UPR LVL            
DIV AS THE UPR LVL JET LIFTS OVER LK MI TOWARD ERN UPR MI. GOING                
TSRA CHANCES ALSO LOOK ON TRACK GIVEN WITH STRONG FORCING AND                   
LIKELIHOOD OF ELEVATED CAPE VCNTY OF THE APPROACHING JET. ONSET OF              
RAIN SHOULD HELP IMPROVE VISIBILITIES SOMEWHAT EVEN THOUGH WAA COULD            
PUSH TEMPS/DEWPOINTS WELL INTO THE MID AND UPPER 40S.                           
MON NIGHT INTO TUE...THE SLOWER NAM/UKMET SUPPORTED BY THE CMC MDLS             
WITH A TRACK A BIT FARTHER WEST THAN THE GFS WAS PREFERRED GIVEN THE            
INTENSITY THE LOW. THE DRY SLOT SHOULD EDGE INTO THE AREA WITH MID              
LVL DRYING PROMOTING MAINLY AREAS OF -DZ/-RA. AGAIN DELAYED                     
CHANGEOVER TO SNOW...PER NAM SNDGS/ FCST FREEZING LVLS. ARRIVAL OF              
COLDER AIR WITH 850 MB TEMPS DROPPING OFF TO THE -7C TO -10C RANGE              
IN THE AFTERNOON WHILE DEEP MOISTURE AND CYCLONIC FLOW IS IN PLACE              
COULD BRING AN INCH OR TWO OF LAKE ENHANCED SNOW TO THE WEST WHILE              
THE REST OF THE AREA WOULD SEE LESS THAN AN INCH FROM WRAP-AROUND               
PCPN WITH DELAYED CHANGEOVER TO SNOW.                                           
TUE NIGHT INTO WED...ENOUGH COLD AIR POURS INTO THE AREA FOR NW FLOW            
LES TO BRING A FEW INCHES OF SNOW AS H8 TEMPS FALL TO AROUND                    
-12C/14C...PER UKMET/GFS. LIMITING FACTOR FOR BETTER ACCUMULATIONS              
WILL BE DEPARTING DEEP MOISTURE AND MODEST INVERSION HGTS...LIKELY              
IN THE 4K-5K FT RANGE.                                                          
THU-SUN...FCST LEANED TOWARD THE 00Z/27 ECMWF...PER HPC...WHICH HAS             
BEEN LEADER IN SUGGESTING A SLOWER MORE BLOCKED PATTERN                         
INTO THE WEEKEND. EARLY IN THE PERIOD...THE GLBL MDLS STILL SUGGEST             
A WAVE MAY BRUSH THE AREA WITH A SHRTWV AND ASSOCIATED SFC LOW                  
PRODUCING AN AREA OF LIGHT SNOW. A DECENT NW FLOW LES REGIME WILL               
FOLLOW AND PERSIST INTO THE WEEKEND WITH 850 MB TEMPS FALLING TO THE            
-16C TO -18C RANGE. UNCERTAINTY IS LARGE BY THIS WEEKEND WITH                   
MDLS/ENSEMBLES DISPLAYING WIDE RANGE OF POSSIBILITIES IN HANDLING               
FATE OF THE MID LVL LOW OVER SE CANADA. PREFERRED ECMWF SOLUTIONS               
WOULD SUGGEST THAT MORE N OR NW LES WOULD CONTINUE WHILE GFS WOULD              
BRING IN RETURN OF WAA AFTER SFC RDG PASSES THROUGH.                            
&&                                                                              
.MQT...WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                           
DENSE FOG ADVISORY FROM 10 PM EST /9 PM CST/ THIS EVENING TO 12 PM              
EST /11 AM CST/ MONDAY FOR                                                      
MIZ001-MIZ002-MIZ003-MIZ004-MIZ005-MIZ006-MIZ007-MIZ009-MIZ010-MIZ011           
-MIZ012-MIZ013-MIZ014-MIZ084-MIZ085.                                            
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
JLB                                                                             
</PRE></TT></td>   mi                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
1204 PM EST SUN NOV 27 2005                                                     
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
THE MAIN CONCERN WITH THIS FORECAST UPDATE IS THE CHANCE OF RAIN OR             
FREEZING DRIZZLE TODAY.                                                         
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC/NAM SHOWING A CLOSED LOW OVER NORTHEAST             
NEW MEXICO AND A RIDGE EXTENDING FROM MID ATLANTIC STATES NORTHWEST             
THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT LAKES INTO SOUTHERN MANITOBA. WEAK SHORTWAVE            
ARE BEING EJECTED OUT AHEAD OF THE NEW MEXICO LOW AND SAILING                   
THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. SURFACE ANALYSIS DEPICT A HIGH OVER              
MAINE AND A DEEP LOW OVER SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. A WARM FRONT                    
STRETCHES EAST FROM THIS LOW THROUGH SOUTHERN WISCONSIN AND LOWER               
MICHIGAN. MOISTURE OVERRUNNING AND ISENTROPIC ASCENT NORTH OF THIS              
FRONT IS GENERATE SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS THE WEST HALF OF THE            
U.P.                                                                            
A WEAK SHORTWAVE EJECTED OUT AHEAD OF THE LOW OVER SOUTH CENTRAL                
CONUS WILL SWEEP INTO WISCONSIN AND LOWER MICHIGAN THIS AFTERNOON.              
THE ACCOMPANYING WARM FRONT WILL MAKE ITS WAY INTO UPPER MICHIGAN               
THIS AFTERNOON. MORNING RAOBS AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW NEARLY                
SATURATED CONDITONS FROM SURFACE TO 500MB ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE                
FRONT. THE SHORTWAVE ENERGY AND THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO GENERATE             
SHOWERS OVER THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON. WARM AIR ADVECTION               
WILL CHANGE ALL THIS OVER TO RAIN. 850MB TEMPERATURE IS AT 4C AND               
WILL INCREASE TO 7C BY LATE AFTERNOON CREATING A STRONG SURFACE BASE            
INVERSION. FOG WILL ALSO FORM WITH THE RAIN AND WARM AIR                        
ADVECTION...SO WILL LEAVE THESE IN THE FORECAST. ALL SURFACE                    
REPORTING STATION INDICATE THAT THE TEMPERATURE IS AT OR ABOVE                  
FREEZING...SO WILL NOT EXTEND THE FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY.                       
TEMPERATURES ARE WELL ON THEIR WAY TO AROUND 40F FOR A HIGH THIS                
AFTERNOON. THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE ALONG LAKE MICHIGAN               
SHORE WHERE THE LAKE TEMPERATURE IS AROUND 40 AT THIS TIME AND THE              
WINDS ARE ONSHORE.                                                              
THE SHORTWAVE OVER WISCONSIN AND LOWER MICHIGAN WILL SLIDE ACROSS               
THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT AS THE WARM FRONT MOVES INTO LAKE                     
SUPERIOR. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH THE NIGHT. A                
SURFACE BASE INVERSION WILL CONTINUE AS WELL. THIS WILL KEEP RAIN               
AND FOG IN PLACE THROUGH THE NIGHT. DO NOT PLAN TO MAKE ANY CHANGES             
TO THE NIGHTTIME FORECAST AT THIS TIME.                                         
WILL UPDATE TO THE ZFP FOR WORDING AND TO REMOVE THE ADVISORY INFO.             
&&                                                                              
.MQT...WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
DLG                                                                             
</PRE></TT></td>   mi                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN                              
1100 AM CST SUN NOV 27 2005                                                     
.UPDATE...                                                                      
EXTENDED AND MODIFIED THE FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY FOR MOX TO LXL                 
AREA. FREEZING DRIZZLE CONTINUING LATE THIS MORNING AND DENSE FOG               
HAS SHOWN UP AS WELL. THEREFORE HAVE SWITCHED IT OVER TO A WINTER               
WX ADVY THROUGH 4 PM. THX FGF FOR COORD. THIS AREA IS SOME DISTANCE             
NORTH OF FRONT. LATEST RUC SUGGESTS FOG WILL NOT ABATE FOR                      
AWHILE. RUC AND SFC ANALYSIS SUGGEST LO LVL TEMPS WILL LIKELY REMAIN            
AOB 32 INTO MID AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY FROM AXN TO LXL. TEMPS SHOULD            
FINALLY RISE ABOVE FREEZING LATE THIS AFTERNOON AS SYSTEM WINDS                 
UP. AS FOR WINTER STORM WATCH...12Z NAM INDICATES LO LVL TEMPS WILL REMAIN      
TOO WARM FOR SNOW THROUGH MIDDAY MONDAY...EVEN IN OUR FAR WESTERN               
COUNTIES. GFS BRINGS IN THE COOLER TEMPS AFTER 12Z MONDAY. MIGHT                
DECIDE TO PUSH WATCH BACK IN TIME BUT THAT WILL BE DECIDED OVER                 
THE NEXT FEW HOURS.                                                             
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 435 AM CST SUN NOV 27 2005/                         
DISCUSSION...                                                                   
RUNNING A BIT BEHIND WITH FREEZING RAIN SITUATION AND HEADLINES.                
IMPETUS FOR FRZG RAIN ADVY WAS CONVECTION BREAKING OUT IN CENTRAL MN            
AROUND 0200.  QUITE A CHANGE IN PWATS AND MID LEVEL INSTABILITY LAST            
FEW HOURS AS STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW ALLOWED FOR RAPID MOISTURE                   
IMPORT.  THESE SHOWERS WERE DEVELOPING AND MOVING RAPIDLY NORTHEAST             
INTO AREA WHERE SURFACE TEMPS WERE ONLY IN LOWER AND MID 20S.  AREAS            
FARTHER SOUTH WHERE MORE WIDESPREAD PRECIP WAS DEVELOPING WERE                  
WARMING FAST ENOUGH TO PREVENT FREEZING.  WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF             
MOST OF THE THUNDERSTORMS WERE CONFINED TO THE MORNING HOURS WHEN               
ATMOSPHERE WAS UNDERGOING ITS MOST RAPID CHANCE.  DID NOT MAKE                  
CHANGES TO WATCH HEADLINES OR FORECAST SNOW AMOUNTS IN GRIDS. STILL             
LOOKS VERY GOOD FOR HEAVY SNOW WESTERN CWA LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY             
EVENING. HUGE NET VERTICAL DISPLACEMENT OF 120 MB ENDING 12Z MONDAY             
WITH CONTINED VERTICAL MOTION THRU THE DAY.  STRONG 200 MB WAA IS               
ALSO VERY PERSISTENT.  300K ISENTROPIC CHART ALSO SHOWING PROLONGED             
PERIOD OF LIFT WITH LARGE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE AVAILABLE. WITH MID                
LEVELS REMAINING QUITE UNSTABLE COULD EVEN SEE SOME THUNDERSNOW IN W            
CWA.  DIFFICULTY REMAINS THE VERY WARM AIRMASS AND TIMING WHEN                  
SUFFICIENT COOLING WILL OCCUR TO CHANGE TO SNOW.  THINK THAT BY 12Z             
MONDAY THE FAR W WILL SEE ACCUMULATING SNOW WITH HEAVY SNOW                     
CONTINUING MONDAY AS LOW LEVELS COOL RAPIDLY AS SURFACE LOW LIFTS               
NE. ADDED PROBLEM WILL BE STRONG WINDS DEVELOPING AS DEEP LOW LIFTS             
NE. RAIN SHUD CHANGE TO MAINLY SNOW LATE MONDAY AFTN AND EARLY EVE E            
MN...BUT WITH WITH A FEW INCHES POSSIBLE.                                       
LONGER TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY                                          
MOST SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WE MADE OCCURRED ON WEDNESDAY THROUGH                  
THURSDAY WHERE SNOW PROBABILITIES WERE MOVED UP TO LIKELY IN                    
RESPONSE TO STRONG WAVE BROUGHT INTO OUR CWA BY THE LATEST GFS.                 
WHILE THE GFS HAS BEEN ERRATIC AT TIMES...THE FACT THAT THE                     
ECMWF MAINTAINS AND STRENGTHENS THIS SAME PIECE OF ENERGY MOVING IN             
FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST ADDS A GREAT DEAL TO OUR CONFIDENCE FOR              
AN EXPECTED SNOWY OUTCOME ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.                            
THE ECMWF HAS AN EXPANSIVE AREA OF NEGATIVE STANDARD DEVIATIONS FOR             
850 MB TEMPERATURES (I.E. 1.5 UNITS) OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST ON                  
DECEMBER 1ST SO WE WOULD EXPECT THIS DAY WILL BE THE COLDEST ONE OF             
THE UPCOMING FIVE DAY PERIOD. THE UKMET APPEARS TO EVOLVE THIS SAME             
PIECE OF ENERGY INTO THE EASTERN HALF OF AN OMEGA BLOCK BY DECEMBER             
1ST WITH THE MPX CWA ON THE WEST END OF THE EASTERNMOST CLOSED LOW              
OF THE BLOCK.                                                                   
&&                                                                              
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
MN...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR            
     CHIPPEWA-DOUGLAS-LAC QUI PARLE-POPE-STEVENS-SWIFT-TODD-                    
     YELLOW MEDICINE.                                                           
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY EVENING              
     FOR BENTON-BROWN-KANDIYOHI-MEEKER-MORRISON-REDWOOD-RENVILLE-               
     STEARNS.                                                                   
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR                  
     DOUGLAS-MORRISON-POPE-STEVENS-TODD.                                        
WI...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
TDK                                                                             
</PRE></TT></td>   mn                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS                                             
400 PM CST SUN NOV 27 2005                                                      
.DISCUSSION...PRIME TIME FOR SEVERE TSRA APPEARS TO BE 05Z-20Z...               
SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND MONDAY...DEEPENING SURFACE LOW IN KS NOW               
DOWN TO 983MB AND HEADING SLOWLY NE AS UPPER JET CORE ROUNDING THE              
BASE OF CENTRAL CONUS TROUGH AXIS THROUGH TX. AIR MASS BEGINNING TO             
RECOVER OVER THE LOWER MS VALLEY WITH 62-64F DEWPOINTS NOSING UP THE            
RIVER. WHILE DAYTIME STRATUS DECK HAS SPOILED SOME HEATING AT PLACES            
IN OUR CWFA...75-80F TEMPS HAVE MADE IT INTO NERN LA AND SERN MS.               
FIRST SQUALL LINE DEVELOPING OVER NE TX/WRN AR COVERED BY TOR WW 876            
WHICH GOES UNTIL 04Z. EXPECT THIS WW TO SHIFT EWD TO NEAR MS RIVER LATER        
THIS EVENING AS MODELS NOW APPEAR TO BE BACKING OFF A BIT ON EXTREME            
LOW LEVEL SHEAR VALUES WHILE KEEPING MARGINAL SBCAPES/MLCAPES. BEST             
ESTIMATE IS THE SEVERE PARAMETERS YIELD THE FOLLOWING NUMBERS ALONG             
THE MS RIVER BY 06Z: SBCAPES/MLCAPES IN THE RANGE OF 600-800J/KG...             
0-1KM AND 0-3KM HELICITIES OF 500-600M*M/S*S...SIGNIFICANT SVR                  
PARAMETER 25-30K...AND STG TOR PARAMETER 2.5-3.0M/S*S. 18Z RUC SHOWED           
6 HOUR PRES FALLS OF 4MB+ BY 06Z...SFC DEWPOINTS 65-67F AND 700-500MB           
LAPSE RATES 5.5-6C. MODELS HAVE UNDERESTIMATED 500MB SPEED MAX IN W             
NOSING INTO THE ARKLATEX AT 110KTS. THESE WINDS RACE THROUGH THE NW             
HALF OF AR TOWARD MO BOOTHEEL OVERNIGHT SETTING UP A VERY FAVORABLE             
RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION FOR OUR FA AS S-N LOW LEVEL JET AXIS OF 60KTS             
AT 850MB MOVES EWD. PRIME DIVERGENCE COUPLET FROM 850-200MB MOVES ALONG         
A LINE FROM KPBF TO KMEM TO KMKL AND THIS SHOULD EASILY SUPPORT                 
ONGOING SQUALL LINE HEADING OUR DIRECTION.                                      
PRE-SQUALL TSRA SEEMS TO BE MINIMAL HOWEVER A MAJOR PROBLEM WILL BE             
HOW IN TACT THE SRN END OF THE LINE REMAINS WITH DIMINISHING CAPE ON            
THE E SIDE OF THE MS RIVER FROM 06-13Z. AT THIS TIME...WE BELIEVE A             
BROKEN LINE OF SUPERCELLS COULD EMERGE S OF HIGHWAY 82 CORRIDOR WHICH           
WOULD ACTUALLY ENHANCE THE RISK FOR STRONG/VIOLENT TORNADOES...ALBEIT           
FEWER CASES OF SUCH MOVING INTO THE I-55 CORRIDOR BY SUNRISE(A LITTLE           
TOO SIMILIAR TO 11/24/2001).                                                    
THEN EXPECT A REDEVELOPING TSRA LINE ROUGHLY ALONG THE NATCHEZ TRACE            
PARKWAY DURING THE MORNING HOURS WITH INCREASING INSTABILITY                    
BECOMING AVAILABLE FOR E CENTRAL MS BY MIDDAY. THE SEVERE RISK COULD            
REACH A SECONDARY PEAK FOR THE KCBM-KMEI AREAS 15-20Z AS ENOUGH                 
FACTORS REMAIN TOGETHER FOR ADDITIONAL SUPERCELL INITIATION. THE BACK           
OF THE LINE OF STORMS SHOULD START ACCELERATING EWD BY MID AFTERNOON            
MONDAY LEAVING THE START OF A DRYING AND GRADUALLY COOLING TREND IN             
ITS PLACE./40/                                                                  
LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY.                                   
COLD FRONT SHOULD BE EXITING EASTERN MISSISSIPPI BY LATE AFTERNOON              
PER OP GFS MODEL. HOWEVER...I HELD SOME LOW POPS OVER INTO THE                  
EVENING...MAINLY UP AGAINST THE STATE LINE...TO HEDGE AGAINST THE               
SLOWER NAM SOLUTION COMING TO PASS. IF ANY PRECIP DOES LINGER PAST              
00Z TUESDAY IN MY EAST CWA THEN ANTICIPATE ONLY BENIGN REMNANTS OF              
DEPARTING CONVECTION...AND NOTHING SEVERE. SKIES SHOULD CLEAR BEHIND            
THE FRONT TEMPORARILY TUESDAY NIGHT...BUT STRATOCUMULUS WILL LIKELY             
COME BACK TO COVER AT LEAST THE NORTH HALF OF THE REGION BY 12Z AS              
COLD TEMPS ALOFT UNDERNEATH THE UPPER LOW COME SWINGING IN. WENT NEAR           
MAV TEMPS FOR LOWS AS MINIMUMS MAINLY FROM 40 TO 45 DEGREES SEEM A              
GOOD COMPROMISE BETWEEN MODERATE COLD AIR ADVECTION AND THE LACK OF             
GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS.                                            
COLD AIR CONTINUING TO BUILD IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WILL ENSURE A             
RATHER CHILLY TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES BELOW                 
NORMAL. OCCASIONALLY BREEZY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS OVER THIS PERIOD            
WILL PROVIDE A BIT OF A WIND CHILL WHILE DAYTIME CLOUDS AT LEAST                
NORTH OF THE INTERSTATE TWENTY CORRIDOR LIMIT WARMING SUNSHINE. WENT            
CLOSE TO MAV HIGHS (MAINLY 50S) BUT CUT LOWS FOR WEDNESDAY MORNING 2            
TO 3 DEGREES AS GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL              
AND THE MAV STATS HAVE SHOWS A STRONG WARM BIAS FOR US IN THESE                 
SITUATIONS LATELY. EXPECT MINIMUMS GENERALLY IN THE 30S.                        
UNCERTAINTY INCREASES GREATLY FOR THE REST OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD.             
THE UPPER PATTERN SEEMS TO TRANSITION INTO A SORT OF QUASI-ZONAL                
FLOW BY LATE IN THE WORK WEEK OVER MOST OF THE CONUS WITH WAVES OF              
JET STREAM ENERGY TRACKING QUICKLY WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE NATION.              
THIS LOOKS TO BE A RELATIVELY ACTIVE PATTERN FOR THE LOWER                      
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WITH SEVERAL SHOTS OF PRECIP COMING THROUGH THE              
NEXT 7 TO 10 DAYS. ALSO...MODELS INDICATE COLD AIR PERCHED ALONG THE            
US/CANADIAN BORDER WILL MAKE A FEW INTRUSIONS AND WILL BE A SOURCE              
OF BAROCLINICITY TO AMPLIFY A DEVELOPING STORM SYSTEM OR TWO DURING             
THIS TIME. ALL THAT SAID...THE MODELS ARE HAVING A VERY DIFFICULT               
TIME WITH THE DETAILS RIGHT NOW...AND THEIR LACK OF RUN-TO-RUN                  
CONSISTENCY DOES NOT INSPIRE MUCH CONFIDENCE IN FINE OUTPUTS (LIKE              
THE MEX). THUS...I AM INCLUDING 20 POPS PAST FRIDAY WITH HOPEFULLY              
10 POPS COVERING THE VERY MEAGER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS THURSDAY. TEMPS            
WILL BE GENERALLY A LITTLE BELOW AVERAGE AND I WENT CLOSER TO THE               
MORE CONSERVATIVE ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE GIVEN THE STATED ISSUES WITH THE            
MEX STATS. /BB/                                                                 
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
MVFR DECK OF STRATUS OVER THE AREA FINALLY BREAKING UP FOR THE MOST PART        
WITH A FEW SMALL -SHRA AT 3-5K FT. WINDS ALSO RESPONDING TO DEEP SURFACE        
LOW AS SOUTHERLY WINDS INCREASING ALONG MS RIVER TO 20-25KTS IN GUSTS.          
EXPECT FURTHER INTENSIFICATION...FOR GLH...GWO AND JAN AS SUSTAINED             
WINDS NEAR 18KTS AND GUSTS TO 30KTS WILL DEVELOP OVERNIGHT. LINE OF             
THUNDERSTORMS(A FEW SVR) WILL APPROACH GLH/GWO/TVR 07-10Z TONIGHT               
REACHING JAN TOWARD 11-14Z AND LOCAL FLYING CONDITIONS WILL                     
DETERIORATE RAPIDLY. THE LINE PROGRESSES TO NEAR CBM-MCB LINE BY 16Z            
AND MEI AREA SHORTLY THEREAFTER./40/                                            
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
JACKSON       63  68  42  57 /  54  81  11  10                                  
MERIDIAN      65  74  44  58 /  31  90  28  13                                  
VICKSBURG     59  66  39  56 /  70  53   9   6                                  
HATTIESBURG   65  76  45  61 /  20  71  24   9                                  
NATCHEZ       61  66  41  58 /  60  49   7   5                                  
GREENVILLE    57  65  39  54 /  92  36  10   7                                  
GREENWOOD     59  65  40  53 /  70  74  10  10                                  
&&                                                                              
.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
MS...LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 3 PM CST MONDAY FOR           
     MSZ029-MSZ030-MSZ031-MSZ032-MSZ033-MSZ038-MSZ039-MSZ044-                   
     MSZ045-MSZ046-MSZ050-MSZ051-MSZ052-MSZ055-MSZ056-MSZ057-                   
     MSZ058-MSZ062-MSZ063-MSZ064-MSZ065-MSZ066-MSZ072-MSZ073-                   
     MSZ074.                                                                    
     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST MONDAY FOR MSZ018-MSZ019-MSZ025-              
     MSZ034-MSZ035-MSZ040-MSZ041.                                               
     LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST MONDAY FOR MSZ026-MSZ027-                
     MSZ028-MSZ036-MSZ037-MSZ042-MSZ043-MSZ047-MSZ048-MSZ049-                   
     MSZ053-MSZ054-MSZ059-MSZ060-MSZ061.                                        
LA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST MONDAY FOR LAZ007-LAZ008-LAZ009-              
     LAZ015.                                                                    
     LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST MONDAY FOR LAZ016-LAZ023-                
     LAZ024-LAZ025-LAZ026.                                                      
AR...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST MONDAY FOR ARZ074-ARZ075.                     
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</PRE></TT></td>   ms                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MISSOULA MT                                            
933 AM MST SUN NOV 27 2005                                                      
.UPDATE...SATELLITE WATER VAPOR LOOP PLACES THE UPPER LEVEL LOW                 
CURRENTLY OVER SOUTHEAST CORNER OF MONTANA. WRAP AROUND MOISTURE                
FROM THIS SYSTEM IS PRODUCING WIDESPREAD SNOW SHOWERS...MAINLY                  
EAST OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE. HOWEVER...THESE SHOWERS CONTINUE                
TO EXTEND INTO THE BLACKFOOT...SEELEY-SWAN AND GLACIER PARK                     
REGION. MOST RELIABLE MODEL TODAY APPEARS TO BE THE RUC...WHICH                 
PREDICTS ONLY SLOWLY IMPROVING CONDITIONS BY LATE AFTERNOON AND                 
THEN RAPIDLY IMPROVING CONDITIONS THIS EVENING. HAVE CONTINUED                  
WITH SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW ADVISORY FOR AREA DISCUSSED ABOVE...MAY              
END UP EXTENDING THIS ADVISORY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THOUGH AT                 
THIS TIME...TIMING LOOKS REASONABLE.                                            
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION... (ISSUED 136 AM MST SUN NOV 27 2005)                         
SHORT TERM...THE STRONG...EASTERLY MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVEL FLOW                  
ALOFT (ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF A DEPARTING UPPER LOW TO THE                     
SOUTHEAST) HAS ALLOWED FOR THE CLOUD COVER TO EXTEND AS FAR WEST                
AS EASTERN WASHINGTON WITH SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY BEING REPORTED AS               
FAR WEST AS MULLAN PASS AND LEWISTON...IDAHO. EXPECTING FOR THE                 
PRECIP TO BEGIN TO SHUT OFF FROM WEST TO EAST THIS AFTERNOON AS                 
THE UPPER LOW MOVES OVER COLORADO. BEHIND THIS SYSTEM...A RIDGE OF              
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA TONIGHT AND ON MONDAY. HAVE              
LEFT IN A CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW IN THE CLEARWATERS FOR                          
TONIGHT...IN SPITE OF THE RIDGE. THIS IS DUE TO THE PRESENCE OF A               
RATHER STOUT UPPER JET AND ENERGETIC MID LEVEL NORTHERLY FLOW OVER              
THE AREA...ABOVE THE RIDGE. OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPS WILL BE COLD IN                 
THE VALLEYS UNDERNEATH THE SURFACE RIDGE AND UNDER LIGHT WINDS                  
WHICH SHOULD HELP STRENGTHEN VALLEY SURFACE INVERSIONS.                         
HOWEVER...THINKING THAT THE PRESENCE OF A MID LEVEL CLOUD DECK                  
SHOULD HELP BUFFER THE OVERNIGHT DROPOFF IN TEMPS.                              
THE NEXT CHANCE FOR PRECIP ARRIVE MONDAY NIGHT AS THE RIDGE BEGINS              
TO MOVE EAST AND AS A SYSTEM BEGINS TO APPROACH. APPEARS THAT THE               
GFS IS HAVING A BIT OF DIFFICULTY WITH THE EVOLUTION AND TRACK OF               
THE LOWER AND MIDDLE LEVEL PORTION OF THIS SYSTEM. LATEST MODEL                 
RUNS HAVE SLOWED DOWN THE ITS APPROACH AND HAVE MADE IT MORE OF A               
TUESDAY EVENT INSTEAD OF A MONDAY NIGHT EVENT. REGARDLESS OF THE                
TIMING...SNOW ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED AGAIN FOR THE MOUNTAIN                   
LOCATIONS ACROSS CENTRAL IDAHO AND WESTERN MONTANA. GIVEN THE                   
UNCERTAINTY IN TIMING...WILL HANDLE THIS IN THE HWO FOR NOW.                    
LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...MODELS HAVE BEEN PRETTY                  
CONSISTENT WITH KEEPING A PROGRESSIVE WET PATTERN OVER THE AREA                 
THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD...WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL. THE                
SYSTEM ON TUESDAY IS STILL LOOKING TO BE A GOOD SNOW PRODUCER IN                
THE MOUNTAINS...AND COULD WARRANT HIGHLIGHTS IN THE NEAR FUTURE.                
&&                                                                              
AVIATION...SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY ALONG THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE AND                
IN THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE FLATHEAD VALLEY WILL CONTINUE UNTIL              
AT LEAST EARLY AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WILL                 
DECREASE FROM WEST-TO-EAST DURING THE DAY TODAY. PLEASE CONTINUE                
TO MONITOR THE TWEBS AND TAFS FOR UPDATES.                                      
&&                                                                              
.MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
MT...SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM SUNDAY FOR WEST                  
     GLACIER REGION...POTOMAC/SEELEY LAKE REGION.                               
ID...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
UPDATE...MWJ                                                                    
PREV DISCUSSION...HENRY/KOLATA                                                  
AVIATION...MWJ                                                                  
</PRE></TT></td>   mt                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND                                         
303 PM CST SUN NOV 27 2005                                                      
.SHORT TERM...                                                                  
SHORT TERM MODELS STILL IN DECENT CONTINUITY FROM RUN TO RUN IN                 
THE OVERALL PICTURE. NAM HAS BEEN THE WORST RUN TO RUN...WITH GFS               
BETTER AND MORE CONSISTENT. HOWEVER DO PREFER MORE OF A BLEND OF                
THE TWO AS GFS MIGHT BE A TAD TOO FAST IN BRINGING IN 850 MB                    
COOLING EASTWARD WHILE NAM MIGHT BE TOO SLOW. SYSTEM IS GETTING                 
GOING NOW OVER NCNTRL KS WITH SFC LOW A BIT FARTHER WEST THAN                   
PROGGED...TO THE WEST OF CONCORDIA. PER SWOMCD AND RADARS LARGE                 
AREA OF PCPN HAS BEEN ADVECTING NORTHWARD TODAY AND THEN WRAPPING               
WESTWARD WITH MOST OF IT FALLING ALONG AND WEST OF INVERTED TROUGH              
WHICH HAS BEEN LOCATED NR A DTL-FFM-ETH LINE. EXPECT LITTLE                     
MOVEMENT OF THIS TROUGH AND PCPN FIELD WITH HEAVIEST FREEZING                   
RAIN WEST OF THIS TROUGH TONIGHT OVER SE ND...WITH TEMPS AROUND                 
32F OR JUST A BIT ABOVE EAST OF THIS TROUGH OVER WCNTRL MN.                     
FOR SOUTHEAST ND/WCNTRL MN...                                                   
NAM AND RUC 850 MB TEMPS ARE WARMEST INDICATING ZERO AND ABOVE                  
850 MB TEMPS HOLDING NR A FSE-FAR LINE TIL NR 18Z MON...WHILE GFS               
IS A BIT FASTER MOVING IT EAST. USED COMPROMISE WHICH WOULD KEEP                
FREEZING RAIN PROFILE GOING ALL NIGHT OVER SE ND INTO WCNTRL                    
MN...CHANGING TO SNOW MONDAY MORNING IN SE ND AND AFTER 18Z OVER                
WCNTRL MN. LOTS OF QUESTIONS ON HOW MAIN SNOW BAND WILL SET UP                  
NORTHWEST OF 500 MB/SFC LOW AS IT DOES FINALLY MOVE NORTHEAST                   
TOWARD MINNEAPOLIS MONDAY AFTN. CONSENSUS IS FOR MAIN BAND FROM                 
FAR NE SD/FAR SE ND INTO NCNTRL MN WITH TOTALS 4-6 WITH ISOLATED                
HIGHER AMTS. MAIN BACKEDGE OF THIS SNOW BAND LOOKS LIKE IT SHOULD               
BE NR A LISBON TO JUST WEST OF FARGO TO FOSSTON TO BAUDETTE LINE                
WITH SHARPLY LOWER AMTS WEST OF THIS LINE. THUS WARNING FOR SE ND               
INTO WCNTRL MN LOOKING GOOD WITH LIKELY 0.25 OR MORE ICE TONIGHT                
(ALL AREAS EAST AND SOUTH OF FFM) AND THEN SNOW MON AFTN/EVE.                   
FOR EAST CENTRAL ND INTO NW CORNER OF MN...                                     
MUCH MORE IFFY FCST FOR AREAS FROM FINLEY AND MAYVILLE TO GRAND                 
FORKS...THIEF RIVER FALLS AND ROSEAU. PCPN CONTINUES TO TRY TO                  
ADVECT NORTH AND WEST BUT LOW LEVELS A BIT DRIER IN THIS AREA THAN              
FARTHER SOUTH. BUT MOISTENING WILL OCCUR THIS EVENING AND DO                    
EXPECT A PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN...THOUGH MUCH LIGHTER THAN                     
SOUTHERN AREAS. THEN 850 MB TEMPS COOL ENOUGH FOR SOME -SN AFTER                
MIDNIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING...BUT LOOKS LIKE MAIN SNOW BAND EAST               
OF GFK-ROX LINE SO NOT REALLY EXPECTED TOO MUCH HVY ACCUM. FELT                 
WARNING STILL JUSTIFIED HERE INSTEAD OF ADVISORY DUE TO                         
FREEZING RAIN FOLLOWED BY SOME LIGHT SNOW AND WIND WITH THIS                    
SYSTEM...DESPITE EACH ELEMENT NOT LIKELY TO REACH WARNING                       
CRITERIA. LOTS OF PEOPLE ON ROADS AS WELL TONIGHT.                              
FOR DVL BASIN...                                                                
KEPT LOW POP GOING (20 PCT) BUT EXPECT LITTLE MEASURABLE PCPN FROM              
THSI SYSTEM AS DRIER AIR WINS OUT FROM THE NORTH.                               
AS FOR WINDS...NORTH WINDS OF 25 TO 40 MPH WILL BLOW MONDAY INTO                
MONDAY NIGHT. SO WHOMEVER GETS SNOW FROM THIS WILL SEE REDUCED                  
VSBY IN BLOWING SNOW AND QUITE POSSIBLY BLIZZARD CONDITIONS                     
DEPENDING ON DEPTH OF NEW SNOWFALL. BEST WIND PERIOD MON 18Z TIL                
06Z TUE.                                                                        
LITTLE TIME FOR TUES-WED WEATHER BUT DOES LOOK QUIET ON TUESDAY                 
THEN A WEAK 500 MB SYSTEM TO CROSS AREA ON WEDNESDAY WITH LOW                   
THREAT FOR -SN. STRONGER SFC LOW WILL GO TO OUR SOUTH OVER SRN                  
SD/NRN NE WITH A BIGGER THREAT FOR SNOW DOWN THERE. TEMPS TO BE A               
BIT BLO NORMAL.                                                                 
.LONG TERM...                                                                   
ONG TERM (THU-SUN)...MOST OF EXTENDED REMAINS THE SAME EXCEPT FOR               
LOWERING TEMPS A FEW DEGREES FRI MORN AS MOST OF REGION WILL                    
BE SITTING UNDER HIGH WITH THICKNESS VALUES PLUNGING TOWARD                     
500 DECAMETERS. GUIDANCE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH PROGRESSIVE                  
SHORT WAVE LATE WED INTO EARLY THURS SLIDING SURFACE LOW WELL                   
SOUTH. KEPT LOW POPS ENTIRE CWA ALTHOUGH ANY PCPN MAY VERY WELL BE              
ACROSS SOUTHERN SECTIONS. KEPT SAT DRY ATTM...WITH THE NEXT SYSTEM              
PROBABLY TAKING SIMILAR TRACK.                                                  
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...CIGS/VSBY FADING RAPIDLY TO IFR WITH SMORGASBORD OF                 
ICE...PELLETS AND EVENTUALLY...SNOW THIS EVE THROUGH MON MORNING.               
WIND BECOMES AN ISSUE OVERNIGHT...WITH GUSTS TO OVER 30 KTS GFK/FAR.            
&&                                                                              
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
ND...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST MONDAY NIGHT FOR NDZ038-           
     NDZ039-NDZ049-NDZ052-NDZ053.                                               
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST MONDAY NIGHT FOR NDZ027-           
     NDZ029-NDZ030.                                                             
MN...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST MONDAY NIGHT FOR MNZ002-           
     MNZ003-MNZ015-MNZ016-MNZ022-MNZ023-MNZ027-MNZ028-MNZ029-                   
     MNZ030-MNZ031-MNZ040.                                                      
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST MONDAY NIGHT FOR MNZ006-           
     MNZ009-MNZ017-MNZ024-MNZ032.                                               
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST MONDAY NIGHT FOR MNZ001-           
     MNZ005-MNZ007-MNZ008-MNZ013-MNZ014.                                        
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
RIDDLE/WJB                                                                      
</PRE></TT></td>   nd