FXUS04 KWBC 291846
QPFPFD
 
QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
146 PM EST MON NOV 29 2004
 
PRELIM DAY 1 AND DAY 2 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID DEC 01/0000 UTC THRU DEC 02/0000 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR
 

DAY 1...

...MID/LWR MS VLY NEWD INTO TN/OH VLYS...

SRN STREAM HEIGHT FALLS WL EJECT ENE INTO THE HIGH PLAINS OVR
THE NEXT 12 HRS AND THEN BE FOCUSED NEWD TWD THE MID MS VLY BY
LATE IN THE PD. ALREADY A VRY MOIST FETCH OF DEEP LYR SWLY FLOW
ACRS THE LWR MS VLY AND INTO THE TN/OH VLYS AHEAD OF THE
ADVANCING CLOSED LOW/TROF ATTM IN THE SRN ROCKIES. THE ETA AND
GFS SHOW PERSISTENTLY STG THETA-E ADVECTION AND PWS
INCREASING TO OVR 1.75 INCHES ACRS THE LWR MS VLY/WRN GULF
COAST REGION AND ADVANCING NEWD TWD THE LWR OH/TN VLYS. SRLY
H8 FLOW IS PROGGED NR 40 KTS WHICH COMBINED WITH STG LOW LVL
FORCING AND ISENTROPIC LIFT SHD MAINTAIN A BROAD SHIELD OF
MDT/HVY RAINS. GOOD H25 RRQ JET FORCING IS ALSO EXPECTED TO BE
AN ADDITIONAL COMPONENT TO ENHANCE OMEGA. THE GFS SOLN
APPEARS TO BE A LITTLE TOO QUICK TO ADVANCE THE CURRENT SW/NE
AXIS OF HVY RAINS SEWD GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE MID/UPR LVL
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVR THE SERN STATES. THE ETA HOLDS THE PCPN
BACK TO THE NW JUST A BIT AND THIS SEEMS TO BE COINCIDING BETTER
WITH CURRENT RADAR/SAT TRENDS. BY LATE IN THE PD...MOISTURE SHD
ADVANCE MORE RAPIDLY NWD AND THIS REPRESENTS AN ETA/GFS BLEND
WITH SOME MORE CONCENTRATED RAINS MOVG INTO THE OH VLY AND
WHICH WL BE ASSOC WITH DEEPENING SFC LOW PRESSURE ADVANCING
TWD THE LWR OH VLY.

XPCT A BROAD AREA OF 1 TO 2 INCH RAINS WITH SOME AMTS OVR 3
INCHES ASSOC WITH THE DEEP MOISTURE FEED. THESE AMTS ARE
WEIGHTED TWD THE ETA BUT HAVE BEEN ENHANCED FURTHER TO
ACCOUNT FOR THE THREAT OF TRAINING CONVECTION AND THE
PERSISTENT UPR JET FORCING.

...PAC NW...

XPCT LGT/MDT OROGRAPHICALLY ENHANCED RAINS AND SOME HIER ELEV
SNOWS THIS PD AS A PROGRESSIVE S/WV MOVES INLAND ACRS WA/OR
AND ADVANCES TWD THE NRN GRT BASIN. ONSHORE FLOW WL FOCUS
THE HEAVIEST PCPN ACRS THE FAVORED COASTAL RANGES...BUT MUCH
OF THIS PCPN SHD BEGIN TO WANE BY THE END OF THE PD AS THE
HEIGHT FALLS PUSHING INLAND WL BE WEAKENING AND THE ONSHORE
FLOW WL BECOME MORE MODEST. MANUAL PROGS FAVOR AN ETA/GFS
BLEND WITH THIS...HOWEVER WITH SOME HEAVIER ADJUSTMENTS MADE
TO THE UPSLOPE AREAS OF ESP WRN WA/OR.
 
DAY 2...

...EASTERN U.S....

THE MODELS CONTINUE TO DIFFER ON THE TRACK AND INTENSITY OF THE
SURFACE LOW FORECAST TO LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY
AND NORTHEAST.  THE ETA IS ABOUT 10 TO 12 MB DEEPER WITH THE LOW
THROUGH THE PERIOD...AND ALSO A BIT FURTHER TO THE WEST WITH THE
TRACK.  THUS...THE ETA ALSO PAINTS HIGHER QPF FROM NORTHEAST
ILLINOIS TO SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN.   THE GFS HAS TRENDED A BIT
FURTHER TO THE WEST WITH THE TRACK OVER THE PAST FEW
RUNS...THOUGH NOT NEARLY AS DEEP WITH THE SURFACE LOW.   MOST OF
THE OTHER MODELS FAVOR AN INTENSITY CLOSER TO THE GFS...BUT A BIT
FURTHER WEST SUCH AS UKMET AND CAN GLOBAL.   MANUAL PROGS
WEIGHTED SLIGHTLY TOWARD THE GFS...BUT DID SHIFT THE HIGHER
AMOUNTS FURTHER WEST TO INCLUDE PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST ILLINOIS
TO SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN. HEAVY TO LOCALLY EXCESSIVE RAINS
STILL A GOOD BET FOR THESE AREAS.  WENT CLOSER TO THE GFS FOR
THE LAST PERIOD OF THE DAY TWO QPF.

...PACIFIC NW...

WITH THE NW DOMINATED BY NWLY FLOW AND VERY LITTLE MSTR
AVAILABLE.. ONLY LIGHT PCPN IS EXPECTED OVER MOST OF THE REGION
THAT WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE NRN INTERMOUNTAIN REGION AND NRN
ROCKIES AS A COUPLE OF VORT MAXES ALOFT MOVE THRU THE AREA.

ORRISON/KOSIER

GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT WWW.HPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV
 
24HR QP VT 01/00Z
 0.00 320037 324009 343978 379953 402925 415886 420839 424790 
      430752 
 0.01 520708 516706 513707 509707 504710 501717 496723 493731 
      490740 488748 487756 487767 489785 489792 487804 485812 
      484819 484829 488840 491848 493858 493866 493878 493888 
      492892 489896 486902 484912 484919 485929 486940 487953 
      491974 502007 508023 514043 517049 522057 530067 535073 
      540078 544080 547079 551073 555053 555040 555028 552020 
      551012 550008 547997 544987 538970 533952 529932 523909 
      518883 518877 519872 518863 521846 523825 524819 523816 
      520802 519797 515793 514786 518767 520750 521728 523721 
      521715 520708 
 0.01 540198 539188 536179 534175 534170 529166 526164 524160 
      520153 509146 505144 501143 495137 492134 486130 479125 
      474122 469119 470116 472111 473104 468101 464102 460101 
      457101 453096 449094 444094 438096 433094 430096 428099 
      424102 422104 421107 423110 423111 420114 419122 420128 
      418134 420138 422138 424132 428127 431121 435116 441116 
      444117 443121 439124 435131 433139 432155 433160 436163 
      438165 440169 439176 436181 433186 432191 433201 434204 
      432207 428207 424206 421210 420216 418226 414230 405237 
      399240 396244 395254 393266 392272 393279 400282 404284 
      407282 415276 425267 429264 434264 437267 442270 448270 
      459267 465265 473266 479270 484275 493285 500290 504290 
      508287 512284 517279 523261 521253 518244 517239 516234 
      513226 508221 503210 499205 493198 484197 480196 475198 
      471201 467202 465200 465193 467191 473187 479184 483185 
      488188 493192 497195 502196 507199 512208 515214 518225 
      521231 525233 527230 529227 534227 
 0.01 437771 435764 433758 430754 426753 420754 410757 405760 
      395768 381781 375788 369795 358807 352813 347820 342828 
      339834 335842 330851 322863 318869 312878 300888 288898 
      278908 272914 269918 263925 258933 255939 253948 254958 
      252965 252971 254980 258989 263994 267001 269005 272007 
      287009 294012 301015 310032 315036 319037 325035 338029 
      342028 349031 355031 360030 367026 373021 380014 384006 
      387998 392982 396971 400963 408946 414930 420912 425890 
      425879 425866 425845 426835 427823 429813 432804 437787 
      438777 437771 
 0.01 364065 364058 362054 358054 355055 350055 347051 341048 
      332049 329052 329058 335064 338068 339072 339078 341081 
      344081 349079 352075 358071 362068 364065 
 0.25 532205 532197 532194 529184 524175 519170 513166 509164 
      505163 500168 498174 500180 506188 511192 516198 521206 
      525207 529207 532205 
 0.25 509274 510270 511265 512256 510246 509236 506233 502222 
      496213 492210 489207 486206 476207 467211 461209 458211 
      454214 449217 440217 437221 435225 436230 436234 435237 
      434241 435246 438248 444251 449251 457249 466248 477248 
      483251 485255 486261 489266 492271 496275 501277 505277 
      509274 
 0.25 475159 474154 473154 470151 469149 468148 465147 462148 
      461152 461156 461157 464157 467160 468162 470163 471162 
      473161 475159 
 0.25 457181 459177 457174 455172 454171 451170 451171 450175 
      451177 451180 451184 452188 454185 456183 457181 
 0.25 413805 412800 411796 409794 405793 402794 395796 384804 
      372812 361820 357823 353828 348838 343850 336860 330868 
      324875 316884 306893 299898 291906 282914 276923 271931 
      269941 269945 270950 273955 279965 282969 285973 292983 
      296986 299985 304983 309979 316973 324965 333957 343951 
      348951 353952 359952 366954 374955 385953 396943 402923 
      408897 410872 410851 412827 413816 413805 
 0.50 522187 521182 521181 518179 515179 512178 510176 508179 
      509181 512181 514185 515186 517189 520191 522187 
 0.50 500265 498263 496260 495263 495264 498266 500265 
 0.50 467239 468236 467232 465227 463225 465221 464216 462216 
      460220 462225 461229 456231 452232 449235 447237 446241 
      451244 454243 460243 463242 467239 
 0.50 403826 403818 402814 399810 397808 391809 385812 379815 
      371821 363829 356836 346853 335869 329876 322884 307896 
      292909 286915 282922 278930 277932 278938 280944 282951 
      287958 293965 299970 305969 308967 315961 322954 329948 
      336942 346937 365934 371932 375929 381922 387913 392904 
      396894 398884 400873 401858 402841 403826 
 1.00 391839 390833 388829 383826 379826 374829 368834 358845 
      348858 339869 329881 308900 303907 300911 298913 298918 
      296922 293929 292936 293941 295945 300953 304956 308957 
      312955 321946 332936 338932 347928 361921 367917 373909 
      381898 384891 388882 390875 391867 392857 392846 391839 
 1.50 385853 383845 379840 375839 371840 362846 353856 345867 
      336877 326887 316896 311901 310902 314903 318901 321903 
      318908 308919 302929 304943 306946 310946 315943 328935 
      338928 352921 359916 363912 371900 378889 382882 384875 
      386863 385853 
 2.00 380855 377851 374848 370847 363849 356856 349865 345873 
      340883 339888 337893 331901 326910 320918 317922 315927 
      316929 319933 326933 331931 341925 349919 356914 360909 
      363904 369896 374886 378876 380870 380864 380855 
 3.00 366875 366866 364863 361863 357868 354874 349884 344893 
      337904 332913 326923 326925 328926 331925 334923 342916 
      352908 355904 359899 365889 366875 366875  
 
24HR QP VT 02/00Z
 0.00 359908 368898 379887 396884 410879 421860 429833 435814 
      447769 457736 459719 451714 447697 454678 459667 476633 
 0.01 530791 526766 519756 506757 489790 474797 472781 481756 
      498683 494659 482633 464617 446612 416630 370684 333736 
      300798 284827 270853 259873 260888 260896 250911 240936 
      243952 253957 266955 305935 334914 353908 359908 363910 
      365913 369924 373932 379935 385935 390934 400930 412921 
      418916 425907 435892 441876 445864 450855 455847 458847 
      458851 459858 458869 455879 452887 450898 451914 464934 
      478953 491967 498997 502036 525073 551075 558054 550996 
      528930 519871 523825 530791 
 0.01 540197 541192 540190 537181 529169 519157 507146 497138 
      488129 483125 476122 472118 474107 472101 467096 455092 
      446089 439088 436087 434083 434072 432066 427060 414058 
      406058 400061 394065 391072 391076 393078 396084 400086 
      404084 408082 412083 415086 418087 419090 418101 415103 
      412099 408098 406098 404103 402109 402113 404117 411120 
      416124 419127 418131 416139 413157 413162 416165 420163 
      421160 424148 426141 426135 429134 429143 429151 432157 
      435164 439169 442178 437186 437193 438195 442202 445203 
      445198 445195 448195 451197 461186 465179 468175 475176 
      482178 494185 503196 515209 522214 527217 532218 536215 
      539207 540197 
 0.01 518273 520269 520263 520255 517239 510226 503212 499208 
      493203 483200 480200 477203 472205 467207 465208 462208 
      451213 448217 448221 450225 453229 453231 450233 447238 
      448246 444260 444266 446270 448272 452270 456265 458257 
      461250 468250 475255 478260 480266 481274 482283 492295 
      499296 504295 509292 514286 518273 
 0.25 547057 547052 546049 546047 544043 543041 540038 537041 
      537043 537044 538048 539053 541057 541058 543060 546059 
      547057 
 0.25 464759 472730 477702 474681 466665 455654 445652 429663 
      403685 370716 358740 353767 354788 351796 342810 332822 
      313849 296872 293879 289885 283890 277898 274902 273907 
      275913 278915 283915 300906 327888 348880 365880 378885 
      399895 414892 425876 441836 448817 454797 459778 464759 
 0.25 532195 529186 525178 522173 516166 509161 502157 498157 
      494158 494164 496169 497173 501177 506182 512187 517193 
      522198 526200 530199 532195 
 0.25 514266 514257 512246 508240 503232 499225 495217 490211 
      482209 470212 464215 459220 461223 465225 472223 476221 
      480223 487228 486234 485238 483242 482245 483248 486255 
      490261 494269 499277 503277 505276 508273 512270 514266 
 0.25 527995 528990 527986 526981 525976 522972 519969 518968 
      516966 513967 511970 511974 513979 514981 515983 517988 
      518990 518992 519997 521999 524001 525000 527998 527995 
 0.25 507891 505879 502869 500865 497867 494873 495886 495895 
      494905 493912 493915 495918 496921 497927 497932 499937 
      501938 503934 504925 503911 503907 506904 507899 507892 
      507891 
 0.25 489152 490148 490144 488139 483134 481132 475131 472133 
      468138 465141 459143 458147 462151 464155 470155 473153 
      479153 485154 489152 
 0.50 464698 461688 456680 446672 434676 410700 394727 384753 
      368784 354809 336834 318858 303878 293891 295896 305896 
      317888 335876 342872 350869 359868 364869 377872 388878 
      394880 400881 404880 408878 413873 418866 422859 428847 
      434833 440820 443812 446803 451772 454756 459739 462729 
      464718 465708 464698 
 1.00 409847 408844 407843 404844 401845 399847 398848 397852 
      400854 403854 404853 406852 408849 409847 
 1.00 417719 404735 397757 402768 414770 417774 416780 404793 
      388805 376817 362824 344836 335849 331861 335866 342865 
      349859 358844 367832 378827 393827 406833 414834 423828 
      433811 436802 436791 433783 428775 426773 426769 426765 
      442728 446719 448710 447704 445697 442694 439694 435696 
      431700 425708 417719  
 
qe$$