AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO                                              
550 PM MDT FRI MAY 2 2008                                                       
.UPDATE...                                                                      
BASED ON THE 13K RUC MODEL...IT APPEARS THE THREAT FOR WIDESPREAD               
DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE DIMINISHING ACROSS SOUTHEAST CO THIS                     
EVENING. THERE STILL COULD BE A BRIEF GUST AROUND 55 MPH ACROSS                 
THE FAR SOUTHEAST CO PLAINS...BUT WILL HANDLE THIS IN THE DIGITAL               
FORECAST AND HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK. METZE                                   
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 418 PM MDT FRI MAY 2 2008/                          
UPDATE...                                                                       
A QUICK BOOKKEEPING UPDATE TO REMOVE THE SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW                  
ADVISORY. 17                                                                    
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 307 PM MDT FRI MAY 2 2008/                           
SHORT TERM...                                                                   
(TONIGHT AND TOMORROW)                                                          
.WINDS DECREASING...COLD TONIGHT....                                            
CURRENTLY...MAJOR LATE SEASON CYCLONE BRINGING MAINLY WIND TO OUR               
PLAINS AND SOME SNOWS TO THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS. AS OF 2 PM TODAY                
WINDS OVER SE CO PLAINS HAVE BEEN IN THE 40 TO 50 MPH RANGE...WITH              
MUCH STRONGER GUSTS TO THE N AND E OF THE REGION. SNOW WAS ALSO                 
CONTINUING IN THE C MTNS ACCORDING TO ASOS REPORTS.                             
FOR THIS AFTERNOON...WINDS ARE FCST TO GRADUALLY DECREASE BY LATER              
THIS AFTERNOON AS PRES GRAD DECREASES AS SFC CYCLONE GRADUALLY MOVES            
TO THE EAST AWAY FROM THE REGION. SKIES WILL GENERALLY BE PARTLY TO             
MOSTLY CLOUDY AND WE MAY SEE SOME SHOWERS N OF HIGHWAY 50 ON THE                
PLAINS. RUC IS ALSO HINTING AT SOME PRECIP ON THE RATON MESA DOWN               
NEAR KTAD. ANY PRECIP ON THE PLAINS SHOULD BE LIGHT WITH VIS                    
REMAINING ABOVE 3SM IN -SN.                                                     
FOR TONIGHT...MAIN CONCERN IS COLD. ALL GUIDANCE IS INDICATING TEMPS            
BELOW FREEZING WITH THE COLDEST AIR ALONG THE I-25 CORRIDOR. THIS               
LOOKS QUITE REASONABLE AS WINDS SHOULD DROP DOWN PRETTY QUICKLY THIS            
EVENING. EXPECT TEMPS IN THE 20-28 RANGE ALONG I-25 CORRIDOR WITH               
25-32 OVER FAR E PLAINS (WHERE WINDS WILL KEEP UP A BIT LONGER).                
TOMORROW...A QUIET DAY (FOR A CHANGE). TEMPS SHOULD RUN ABOUT 5-10F             
WARMER THAN TODAY AND THE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT. NO SIGNIFICANT PRECIP IS         
EXPECTED AS A WEAK MID LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE REGION. /34                  
LONG TERM...                                                                    
(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)                                                 
C51ENGE IN THE LONG TERM IS WHEN UPPER LOW EJECTS FROM THE                      
SOUTHWEST US.                                                                   
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...MODELS SHOW THAT UPPER RIDGE                    
CENTERED TO OUR SOUTH WILL INFLUENCE SENSIBLE WEATHER.  AFTER LOWS              
IN THE UPPER TEENS TO MID 30S ACROSS THE AREA...TEMPERATURES WILL               
RISE INTO THE 70S ACROSS MUCH OF THE PLAINS...WITH MID LEVEL                    
TEMPERATURES REACHING VALUES AROUND 8 DEGREES CELSIUS.  HIGHS WILL              
RANGE FROM THE 30S IN THE NORTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS TO THE 60S IN THE             
SAN LUIS VALLEY.  WITH LIMITED MOISTURE ONLY SLIGHT CHANCES FOR                 
SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS DURING SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT...MAINLY             
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND FAR SOUTHEAST.  NAM12 HINTS THAT THE              
MOISTURE ACROSS EASTERN NEW MEXICO AND THE TEXAS PANHANDLE MAY GET              
SHUNTED NORTH BY LOW LEVEL JET INTO BACA AND PROWERS COUNTIES LATE              
AFTERNOON AND THROUGH THE NIGHT.  PUT HIGHEST POPS IN THAT                      
AREA...ALONG WITH THUNDER.  ON MONDAY...RIDGE WILL PROVIDE MAINLY               
DRY WEATHER...WITH SMALL CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS                   
IN THE AFTERNOON.  MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES A DEGREE OR TWO HIGHER                
THAN SUNDAY...SO HIGHS SHOULD REACH THE 70S TO AROUND 80 IN THE                 
PLAINS...AND 40S TO LOWER 70S ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND HIGH VALLEYS.            
TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THE EJECTION OF UPPER LOW IN THE                    
SOUTHWEST US IS RESOLVED DIFFERENTLY BY GFS AND EUROPEAN MODELS.                
EUROPEAN WANTS TO BRING IN THE LOW...ALONG WITH MOISTURE AND CHANCES            
FOR SHOWERS ABOUT 12 HOURS FASTER THAN THE GFS.  SINCE THIS IS                  
SEVERAL DAYS AWAY...AND THE LOW IS NOW HUNDREDS OF MILES WEST OF SAN            
FRANCISCO MOVING SOUTH...TIMING IS ANYTHING BUT CERTAIN.  FORECAST              
GRIDS FOR PUB AND SURROUNDING OFFICES HAVE GENERAL BROAD BRUSH                  
SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW CHANCE POPS THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH                      
TEMPERATURES LOWERING ON WEDNESDAY WITH MORE CLOUDS AND COOLING MID             
LEVEL TEMPERATURES BY SOME 3 DEGREES CELSIUS.                                   
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...NEXT UPPER WAVE ALSO IS HANDLED DIFFERENTLY BY            
GFS AND EUROPEAN MODELS.  GFS DEVELOPS A CUTOFF LOW OVER NORTHERN               
ROCKIES...WHILE EUROPEAN HAS A PROGRESSIVE WAVE WHICH ARRIVES BY                
FRIDAY.  MUCH UNCERTAINTY WITH SOLUTIONS. PUB AND SURROUNDING                   
OFFICES ARE GOING WITH DRIER...MILDER SOLUTION OF GFS ATTM.  STAY               
TUNED. -TLM-                                                                    
AVIATION...WINDS WILL DIE DOWN LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY                    
EVENING. OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL TAF SITES.                      
&&                                                                              
.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM MDT SATURDAY FOR                   
COZ083>089-093>099.                                                             
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
17/17                                                                           
</pre> co                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO                                              
418 PM MDT FRI MAY 2 2008                                                       
.UPDATE...                                                                      
A QUICK BOOKKEEPING UPDATE TO REMOVE THE SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW                  
ADVISORY. METZE                                                                 
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 307 PM MDT FRI MAY 2 2008/                          
SHORT TERM...                                                                   
(TONIGHT AND TOMORROW)                                                          
..WINDS DECREASING...COLD TONIGHT....                                           
CURRENTLY...MAJOR LATE SEASON CYCLONE BRINGING MAINLY WIND TO OUR               
PLAINS AND SOME SNOWS TO THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS. AS OF 2 PM TODAY                
WINDS OVER SE CO PLAINS HAVE BEEN IN THE 40 TO 50 MPH RANGE...WITH              
MUCH STRONGER GUSTS TO THE N AND E OF THE REGION. SNOW WAS ALSO                 
CONTINUING IN THE C MTNS ACCORDING TO ASOS REPORTS.                             
FOR THIS AFTERNOON...WINDS ARE FCST TO GRADUALLY DECREASE BY LATER              
THIS AFTERNOON AS PRES GRAD DECREASES AS SFC CYCLONE GRADUALLY MOVES            
TO THE EAST AWAY FROM THE REGION. SKIES WILL GENERALLY BE PARTLY TO             
MOSTLY CLOUDY AND WE MAY SEE SOME SHOWERS N OF HIGHWAY 50 ON THE                
PLAINS. RUC IS ALSO HINTING AT SOME PRECIP ON THE RATON MESA DOWN               
NEAR KTAD. ANY PRECIP ON THE PLAINS SHOULD BE LIGHT WITH VIS                    
REMAINING ABOVE 3SM IN -SN.                                                     
FOR TONIGHT...MAIN CONCERN IS COLD. ALL GUIDANCE IS INDICATING TEMPS            
BELOW FREEZING WITH THE COLDEST AIR ALONG THE I-25 CORRIDOR. THIS               
LOOKS QUITE REASONABLE AS WINDS SHOULD DROP DOWN PRETTY QUICKLY THIS            
EVENING. EXPECT TEMPS IN THE 20-28 RANGE ALONG I-25 CORRIDOR WITH               
25-32 OVER FAR E PLAINS (WHERE WINDS WILL KEEP UP A BIT LONGER).                
TOMORROW...A QUIET DAY (FOR A CHANGE). TEMPS SHOULD RUN ABOUT 5-10F             
WARMER THAN TODAY AND THE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT. NO SIGNIFICANT PRECIP IS         
EXPECTED AS A WEAK MID LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE REGION. /34                  
LONG TERM...                                                                    
(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)                                                 
C51ENGE IN THE LONG TERM IS WHEN UPPER LOW EJECTS FROM THE                      
SOUTHWEST US.                                                                   
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...MODELS SHOW THAT UPPER RIDGE                    
CENTERED TO OUR SOUTH WILL INFLUENCE SENSIBLE WEATHER.  AFTER LOWS              
IN THE UPPER TEENS TO MID 30S ACROSS THE AREA...TEMPERATURES WILL               
RISE INTO THE 70S ACROSS MUCH OF THE PLAINS...WITH MID LEVEL                    
TEMPERATURES REACHING VALUES AROUND 8 DEGREES CELSIUS.  HIGHS WILL              
RANGE FROM THE 30S IN THE NORTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS TO THE 60S IN THE             
SAN LUIS VALLEY.  WITH LIMITED MOISTURE ONLY SLIGHT CHANCES FOR                 
SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS DURING SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT...MAINLY             
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND FAR SOUTHEAST.  NAM12 HINTS THAT THE              
MOISTURE ACROSS EASTERN NEW MEXICO AND THE TEXAS PANHANDLE MAY GET              
SHUNTED NORTH BY LOW LEVEL JET INTO BACA AND PROWERS COUNTIES LATE              
AFTERNOON AND THROUGH THE NIGHT.  PUT HIGHEST POPS IN THAT                      
AREA...ALONG WITH THUNDER.  ON MONDAY...RIDGE WILL PROVIDE MAINLY               
DRY WEATHER...WITH SMALL CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS                   
IN THE AFTERNOON.  MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES A DEGREE OR TWO HIGHER                
THAN SUNDAY...SO HIGHS SHOULD REACH THE 70S TO AROUND 80 IN THE                 
PLAINS...AND 40S TO LOWER 70S ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND HIGH VALLEYS.            
TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THE EJECTION OF UPPER LOW IN THE                    
SOUTHWEST US IS RESOLVED DIFFERENTLY BY GFS AND EUROPEAN MODELS.                
EUROPEAN WANTS TO BRING IN THE LOW...ALONG WITH MOISTURE AND CHANCES            
FOR SHOWERS ABOUT 12 HOURS FASTER THAN THE GFS.  SINCE THIS IS                  
SEVERAL DAYS AWAY...AND THE LOW IS NOW HUNDREDS OF MILES WEST OF SAN            
FRANCISCO MOVING SOUTH...TIMING IS ANYTHING BUT CERTAIN.  FORECAST              
GRIDS FOR PUB AND SURROUNDING OFFICES HAVE GENERAL BROAD BRUSH                  
SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW CHANCE POPS THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH                      
TEMPERATURES LOWERING ON WEDNESDAY WITH MORE CLOUDS AND COOLING MID             
LEVEL TEMPERATURES BY SOME 3 DEGREES CELSIUS.                                   
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...NEXT UPPER WAVE ALSO IS HANDLED DIFFERENTLY BY            
GFS AND EUROPEAN MODELS.  GFS DEVELOPS A CUTOFF LOW OVER NORTHERN               
ROCKIES...WHILE EUROPEAN HAS A PROGRESSIVE WAVE WHICH ARRIVES BY                
FRIDAY.  MUCH UNCERTAINTY WITH SOLUTIONS. PUB AND SURROUNDING                   
OFFICES ARE GOING WITH DRIER...MILDER SOLUTION OF GFS ATTM.  STAY               
TUNED. -TLM-                                                                    
AVIATION...WINDS WILL DIE DOWN LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY                    
EVENING. OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL TAF SITES.                      
&&                                                                              
.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 6 PM MDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR COZ084-085-                 
089-093-095>098.                                                                
FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM MDT SATURDAY FOR                   
COZ083>089-093>099.                                                             
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
17/17                                                                           
</pre> co                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO                                              
307 PM MDT FRI MAY 2 2008                                                       
.SHORT TERM...                                                                  
(TONIGHT AND TOMORROW)                                                          
...WINDS DECREASING...COLD TONIGHT....                                          
CURRENTLY...MAJOR LATE SEASON CYCLONE BRINGING MAINLY WIND TO OUR               
PLAINS AND SOME SNOWS TO THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS. AS OF 2 PM TODAY                
WINDS OVER SE CO PLAINS HAVE BEEN IN THE 40 TO 50 MPH RANGE...WITH              
MUCH STRONGER GUSTS TO THE N AND E OF THE REGION. SNOW WAS ALSO                 
CONTINUING IN THE C MTNS ACCORDING TO ASOS REPORTS.                             
FOR THIS AFTERNOON...WINDS ARE FCST TO GRADUALLY DECREASE BY LATER              
THIS AFTERNOON AS PRES GRAD DECREASES AS SFC CYCLONE GRADUALLY MOVES            
TO THE EAST AWAY FROM THE REGION. SKIES WILL GENERALLY BE PARTLY TO             
MOSTLY CLOUDY AND WE MAY SEE SOME SHOWERS N OF HIGHWAY 50 ON THE                
PLAINS. RUC IS ALSO HINTING AT SOME PRECIP ON THE RATON MESA DOWN               
NEAR KTAD. ANY PRECIP ON THE PLAINS SHOULD BE LIGHT WITH VIS                    
REMAINING ABOVE 3SM IN -SN.                                                     
FOR TONIGHT...MAIN CONCERN IS COLD. ALL GUIDANCE IS INDICATING TEMPS            
BELOW FREEZING WITH THE COLDEST AIR ALONG THE I-25 CORRIDOR. THIS               
LOOKS QUITE REASONABLE AS WINDS SHOULD DROP DOWN PRETTY QUICKLY THIS            
EVENING. EXPECT TEMPS IN THE 20-28 RANGE ALONG I-25 CORRIDOR WITH               
25-32 OVER FAR E PLAINS (WHERE WINDS WILL KEEP UP A BIT LONGER).                
TOMORROW...A QUIET DAY (FOR A CHANGE). TEMPS SHOULD RUN ABOUT 5-10F             
WARMER THAN TODAY AND THE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT. NO SIGNIFICANT PRECIP IS         
EXPECTED AS A WEAK MID LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE REGION. /HODANISH            
.LONG TERM...                                                                   
(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)                                                 
CHALLENGE IN THE LONG TERM IS WHEN UPPER LOW EJECTS FROM THE                    
SOUTHWEST US.                                                                   
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...MODELS SHOW THAT UPPER RIDGE                    
CENTERED TO OUR SOUTH WILL INFLUENCE SENSIBLE WEATHER.  AFTER LOWS              
IN THE UPPER TEENS TO MID 30S ACROSS THE AREA...TEMPERATURES WILL               
RISE INTO THE 70S ACROSS MUCH OF THE PLAINS...WITH MID LEVEL                    
TEMPERATURES REACHING VALUES AROUND 8 DEGREES CELSIUS.  HIGHS WILL              
RANGE FROM THE 30S IN THE NORTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS TO THE 60S IN THE             
SAN LUIS VALLEY.  WITH LIMITED MOISTURE ONLY SLIGHT CHANCES FOR                 
SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS DURING SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT...MAINLY             
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND FAR SOUTHEAST.  NAM12 HINTS THAT THE              
MOISTURE ACROSS EASTERN NEW MEXICO AND THE TEXAS PANHANDLE MAY GET              
SHUNTED NORTH BY LOW LEVEL JET INTO BACA AND PROWERS COUNTIES LATE              
AFTERNOON AND THROUGH THE NIGHT.  PUT HIGHEST POPS IN THAT                      
AREA...ALONG WITH THUNDER.  ON MONDAY...RIDGE WILL PROVIDE MAINLY               
DRY WEATHER...WITH SMALL CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS                   
IN THE AFTERNOON.  MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES A DEGREE OR TWO HIGHER                
THAN SUNDAY...SO HIGHS SHOULD REACH THE 70S TO AROUND 80 IN THE                 
PLAINS...AND 40S TO LOWER 70S ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND HIGH VALLEYS.            
TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THE EJECTION OF UPPER LOW IN THE                    
SOUTHWEST US IS RESOLVED DIFFERENTLY BY GFS AND EUROPEAN MODELS.                
EUROPEAN WANTS TO BRING IN THE LOW...ALONG WITH MOISTURE AND CHANCES            
FOR SHOWERS ABOUT 12 HOURS FASTER THAN THE GFS.  SINCE THIS IS                  
SEVERAL DAYS AWAY...AND THE LOW IS NOW HUNDREDS OF MILES WEST OF SAN            
FRANCISCO MOVING SOUTH...TIMING IS ANYTHING BUT CERTAIN.  FORECAST              
GRIDS FOR PUB AND SURROUNDING OFFICES HAVE GENERAL BROAD BRUSH                  
SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW CHANCE POPS THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH                      
TEMPERATURES LOWERING ON WEDNESDAY WITH MORE CLOUDS AND COOLING MID             
LEVEL TEMPERATURES BY SOME 3 DEGREES CELSIUS.                                   
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...NEXT UPPER WAVE ALSO IS HANDLED DIFFERENTLY BY            
GFS AND EUROPEAN MODELS.  GFS DEVELOPS A CUTOFF LOW OVER NORTHERN               
ROCKIES...WHILE EUROPEAN HAS A PROGRESSIVE WAVE WHICH ARRIVES BY                
FRIDAY.  MUCH UNCERTAINTY WITH SOLUTIONS. PUB AND SURROUNDING                   
OFFICES ARE GOING WITH DRIER...MILDER SOLUTION OF GFS ATTM.  STAY               
TUNED. -TLM-                                                                    
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...WINDS WILL DIE DOWN LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY                   
EVENING. OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL TAF SITES.                      
&&                                                                              
.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 6 PM MDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR COZ084-085-                 
089-093-095>098.                                                                
FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM MDT SATURDAY FOR                   
COZ083>089-093>099.                                                             
SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM MDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR                
COZ058-060.                                                                     
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
34/13                                                                           
</pre> co                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA                                             
427 PM EDT FRI MAY 2 2008                                                       
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
A WARM FRONT WILL REMAIN S OF NEW ENGLAND INTO SAT AS A COOL ONSHORE            
FLOW PREVAILS ACROSS THE REGION. LOW PRES WILL PASS TO OUR S SUN INTO           
MON PROVIDING A BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS. UNSETTLED WEATHER MAY                 
RETURN BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.                                              
&&                                                                              
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL MIDNIGHT TONIGHT/...                                          
FOCUS OF SHOWERS THROUGH THIS EVENING WILL BE ACROSS INTERIOR...                
ESPECIALLY ACROSS SW NH AND NW MA WHERE REMNANT SHOWERS ARE HEADING             
IN FROM EASTERN NY AND SOUTHERN VT. RUC CAPTURES THIS TREND NICELY              
AND WE WILL HAVE HIGHER POPS IN THESE AREAS THROUGH EARLY EVENING.              
OTHERWISE...PATCHY DRIZZLE AND FOG WILL PREVAIL FROM LOWER CT VALLEY            
INTO RI AND SE MA DUE TO PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW. SOUNDINGS INDICATE            
ENOUGH DRIER AIR WORKING IN ALOFT ACROSS EASTERN MA TO PRECLUDE                 
DRIZZLE AND FOG THERE DESPITE LIGHT E/NE FLOW.                                  
FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAS ALREADY SAGGED S OF NEW ENGLAND AS OF MID                  
AFTERNOON AND WILL REMAIN WELL TO OUR S TONIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW                
SURFACE RIDGE TO NOSE IN FROM NH/ME LATER THIS EVENING AND PUSH                 
FOCUS OF SHOWER ACTIVITY FARTHER W OUT OF NEW ENGLAND.                          
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM /MIDNIGHT TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...                        
CLOUDY SKIES EXPECTED OVERNIGHT THROUGH SAT AS CONTINUED ONSHORE FLOW           
MAINTAINS SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE.                                        
WE PREFER 12Z GFS DEPICTION OF KEEPING MOST OF SHOWER ACTIVITY W OF             
NEW ENGLAND SAT...AS SURFACE RIDGE CONTINUES TO INFLUENCE OUR AREA.             
WE CANNOT TOTALLY RULE OUT A DRY DAY HOWEVER...ESPECIALLY NEAR CT               
RIVER VALLEY SO CHANCE POPS WERE LIMITED TO OUR WESTERN ZONES.                  
POSITION OF UPPER RIDGE OVER NEW ENGLAND FAVORS KEEPING MOST IF NOT             
ALL OF MEASURABLE RAINFALL TO OUR W.                                            
RIDGE FINALLY MOVES E SAT NIGHT WHICH WILL ALLOW SHOWERS TO SPREAD              
INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND...ESPECIALLY LATER AT NIGHT AS FRONT HEADS            
E FROM NY STATE.                                                                
STAYED CLOSE TO GMOS FOR TEMPERATURES THROUGH PERIOD GIVEN CLOUD                
COVER AND LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW.                                                   
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...                                           
SUNDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WITH A WEAK            
SECONDARY LOW AND WARM FRONT LOCATED SOUTH OF THE REGION. THERE IS A            
DECENT 30-35KT SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL JET WHICH WILL AID IN ENHANCING LOW          
LEVEL CONVERGENCE. IN ADDITION PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL RISE              
NEAR 1.4 G/KG. DECENT THETA-E ADVECTION ALSO NOTED AT THE 850 MB                
LEVEL WITH A SERIES OF WEAK H5 SHORT WAVES IN DEVELOPING CYCLONIC               
FLOW. THERE ARE SOME MINOR TIMING DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE OPERATIONAL           
GFS...UKMET AND NAM...BUT OVERALL DECENT MODEL AGREEMENT ON SUNDAY.             
GIVEN FORCING MECHANISMS DECIDED TO BOOST POPS TO CATEGORICAL. RAIN             
MAY BE BRIEFLY HEAVY. INSTABILITY PARAMETERS CURRENTLY MARGINAL FOR             
THUNDER...BUT AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT.                     
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO STALL JUST              
OFFSHORE AS THE GREAT LAKES UPPER LEVEL LOW IS FORCED TO CLIMB OVER             
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE LOCATED JUST EAST OF THE REGION. BELIEVE CLOUDS           
WILL LINGER ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST MONDAY GIVEN LACK OF SUBSIDENCE          
BEHIND THE FRONT...FAIRLY HIGH LOW LEVEL RELATIVE HUMIDITY AND LOW              
LEVEL BOUNDARY LAYER PERSISTING FLOW FROM THE NORTH NORTHEAST. SHOWERS          
ARE EXPECTED TO PUSH OFFSHORE SUNDAY NIGHT BUT SOME DRIZZLE COULD               
PERSIST THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.                                                 
TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...APPEARS THE REGION WILL BE LOCATED WITHIN           
A `COL" AREA. THE DURATION OF CLEARING SHOULD BE BRIEF...GIVEN VERY             
WEAK RIDGING ALOFT AND LIGHT WINDS. TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN AT OR            
NEAR SEASONAL NORMS WITH DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED.                               
THURSDAY...NEXT LOW QUICKLY APPROACHES FROM THE GREAT LAKES...WITH A            
SECONDARY LOW FORMING SOUTH OF THE REGION. THE 12Z ECMWF DOES NOT               
DEVELOP THE SECONDARY LOW...BUT IT DOES SWING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE           
FORECAST AREA. THEREFORE CONTINUED CHANCE POPS FOR THURSDAY.                    
FRIDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MAY BUILD BEHIND THE COLD FRONT TO               
BRING DRY CONDITIONS AND SEASONABLY COOL TEMPERATURES.                          
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...                                     
18Z TAFS FEATURE LITTLE CHANGE THROUGH PERIOD AS LOW CLOUDS REMAIN              
LOCKED IN THROUGH MIDDAY SAT.                                                   
KBOS EXPECTED TO REMAIN ON LOWER END OF VFR /3-4KFT/ WITH PERSISTENT            
09010KT WIND THROUGH PERIOD. LOW PROBABILITY OF CEILINGS TEMPORARILY            
LOWERING TO NEAR 1KFT 20-24Z...BUT NOT ENOUGH FOR INCLUSION INTO TAF.           
OTHERWISE MVFR CEILINGS WITH AREAS OF IFR WILL PERSIST INTO THIS                
EVENING BEFORE SOME IMPROVEMENT OCCURS AFTER MIDNIGHT...BUT CEILINGS            
SHOULD REMAIN MVFR MOST OF NIGHT. LOW END VFR CEILINGS EXPECTED SAT.            
OUTLOOK...SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...                                           
SUNDAY...IFR CEILINGS IN SHOWERS...FOG PATCHES. RAIN COULD BE LOCALLY           
HEAVY.                                                                          
SUNDAY NIGHT...IFR CONDITIONS IN FOG PATCHES AND DRIZZLE. RAIN TAPERS           
OFF. SOME IMPROVEMENT POSSIBLE WESTERN TERMINALS.                               
MONDAY...MORNING IFR CEILINGS AND VSBYS IN FOG PATCHES MAY IMPROVE EASTERN      
TERMINALS. IMPROVEMENT TO VFR WESTERN TERMINALS.                                
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...VFR.                                                    
&&                                                                              
.MARINE...                                                                      
SCA FOR SEAS BEING POSTED FOR OUTER S COASTAL WATERS THIS EVENING               
INTO SAT...THOUGH FOCUS OF 5 TO 6 FT SEAS WILL BE CLOSER TO E END OF            
LONG ISLAND AND BLOCK ISLAND AS OPPOSED TO NANTUCKET. E/NE WINDS                
SHOULD STAY JUST BELOW 25KT TONIGHT INTO SAT...BUT PERSISTENT FLOW              
WILL EASILY BE ABLE TO BUILD SEAS. WE NOTED 5 FT SEAS ALREADY BEING             
OBSERVED AT BUOY 44025.                                                         
PERSISTENT E FLOW SAT WITH SLOWLY BUILDING SEAS. SEAS MAY REACH 5               
FT SAT NIGHT ON REMAINDER OF OUTER COASTAL WATERS.                              
OUTLOOK...SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...                                           
SUNDAY...SCA SEAS LIKELY ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS.                               
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...SEAS GRADUALLY DECREASE.                             
THURSDAY...NE WIND GUSTS TO 25 KT POSSIBLE. CONTINUED E SWELL UP TO 6 FT        
POSSIBLE.                                                                       
&&                                                                              
.HYDROLOGY...                                                                   
MINOR FLOODING CONTINUES ALONG MAINSTEM CT RIVER FROM HARTFORD                  
THROUGH MIDDLETOWN. LATEST NERFC GUIDANCE BRINGS HARTFORD BELOW FLOOD           
STAGE BY MIDNIGHT...BUT NOT AT MIDDLETOWN UNTIL EARLY SUN MORNING.              
PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN INTO TONIGHT WILL NOT IMPACT RIVER LEVELS.                
REFER TO THE LATEST FLOOD STATEMENT FOR FURTHER DETAILS.                        
&&                                                                              
.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
CT...NONE.                                                                      
MA...NONE.                                                                      
NH...NONE.                                                                      
RI...NONE.                                                                      
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING         
     TO 6 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ255.                                           
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SYNOPSIS...JWD                                                                  
NEAR TERM...JWD                                                                 
SHORT TERM...JWD                                                                
LONG TERM...STRAUSS                                                             
AVIATION...STRAUSS/JWD                                                          
MARINE...STRAUSS/JWD                                                            
HYDROLOGY...JWD                                                                 
</pre> ct                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA                                             
124 PM EDT FRI MAY 2 2008                                                       
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
A WARM FRONT ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND WILL SLIDE JUST S OF LONG ISLAND       
FRI INTO THE WEEKEND WITH PERIODS OF RAIN THREATENING OUR REGION. WEAK          
LOW PRES LODGES IN OR NEAR NEW ENGLAND SUN NIGHT THROUGH THE MIDDLE             
OF NEXT WEEK.                                                                   
&&                                                                              
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON/...                                       
OVERRUNNING SHOWERS ARE DECREASING IN COVERAGE/INTENSITY AS BEST                
FGEN/ISENTROPIC LIFT WEAKENS. UPDATED POPS IN THE GRIDS TO REFLECT              
CURRENT RADAR TRENDS WITH NAM/RUC NEAR TERM FCST.                               
SFC BOUNDARY ACTUALLY MOVES BACK TO THE SW TODAY AS SFC RIDGING                 
NOSES IN FROM THE NE. CLEAR SKIES NOT THAT FAR AWAY IN CENTRAL NH AND           
S ME BUT RH CROSS SECTIONS DO NOT BRING THIS DRIER AIR INTO OUR FA SO           
EXPECT MAINLY CLOUDY SKIES TO PERSIST.                                          
STILL LOTS OF MOISTURE AROUND...ESPECIALLY CENTRAL AND WEST ZONES SO            
LOW PROB OF SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE REST OF TODAY ALONG WITH PATCHY               
DRIZLLE.                                                                        
ANY CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD REMAIN SOUTH AND WEST OF SNE               
BASED ON CONVECTIVE INDICES.                                                    
WE FOLLOWED GFS LAMP GUIDANCE FOR TEMPS WHICH SEEMS TO BE HANDLING              
COOL MARITIME AIRMASS.  A CHILLY DAY UNDER GENERALLY OVC SKIES AND              
ELY MARITIME FLOW...WITH TEMPS ONLY IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S.              
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM /4 PM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...                      
TEMPS FOR TONIGHT WERE 00Z/2 GFS MAVMOS AND SIMILAR TO THE 4PM                  
THURSDAY FCST FOR TONIGHT.                                                      
SATURDAY...INTEROFFICE CONSENSUS THAT THIS IS THE DRIEST OF THE WEEKEND         
DAYS DUE TO RDG ALOFT. MAINTAINED CONTINUITY WITH THE 4PM THURSDAY FCST.        
WHAT I DONT LIKE ABOUT THIS PATTERN INSISTING DRY IS THAT THE GFS KEEPS         
PACKING MOISTURE UP AGAINST THE SW PART OF OUR CWA WITH SOME INDICATION         
WEAK DIFFERENTIAL WAA AND POSSIBILITIES OF MID LVL SHOWERS. I CAN SEE           
SCT SHOWERS OCCURRING ON THE LEADING EDGE OF THE PWAT AXIS WITH 850             
WINDS SWLY BENEATH NWLY MID LVL FLOW. FOR NOW...ACCEPTED LOWER POPS AND         
INTEROFFICE CONSENSUS.                                                          
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...                                 
SATURDAY NIGHT...COOL HIGH PRESSURE MOVES JUST EAST OF SOUTHERN NEW             
ENGLAND...POSSIBLY ALLOWING A FEW SHOWERS OVERNIGHT.  THEN SUNDAY A             
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA PRODUCING SHOWERS.  WHILE THERE            
REMAINS SOME DISCREPANCY AS TO THE TIMING OF THE COLD FRONT...ALL               
THE MODELS INDICATE THAT IT WILL MOVE ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND               
SOMETIME ON SUNDAY.                                                             
MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...THE MODELS DISAGREE ON THE PROGRESSION OF              
THE FRONT.  FOR NOW...THIS WILL HAVE LITTLE EFFECT ON THE FORECAST.             
THERE COULD BE PRECIP LINGERING INTO MONDAY...OR MONDAY COULD BE DRY            
AND THE PRECIP RETURN ON TUESDAY.  WILL GO WITH LOW END CHANCE POPS             
FOR THESE PERIODS TO COVER UNCERTAINTY.                                         
WEDNESDAY LOOKS TO BE MOSTLY DRY AT THIS POINT NO MATTER WHICH MODEL            
YOU LOOK AT.  THE GFS DOES MOVE PRECIP IN WEDNESDAY EVENING IN                  
RESPONSE TO A SURFACE LOW THAT MOVES EAST ACROSS PENNSYLVANIA.  THIS            
LOW MOVES OUT TO THE ATLANTIC SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND AND MOVES UP                 
SOUTHEAST OF NANTUCKET AND INTO THE GULF OF MAINE THURSDAY INTO                 
FRIDAY.  IF THIS SOLUTION IS CORRECT...PRECIP WILL CONTINUE INTO                
THURSDAY.  THE ECMWF IS ALSO PRODUCING PRECIP THURSDAY WITH A                   
POSSIBLE COLD FRONT.                                                            
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION /17Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...                                       
18Z TAFS FEATURE LITTLE CHANGE THROUGH PERIOD AS LOW CLOUDS REMAIN              
LOCKED IN THROUGH MIDDAY SAT.                                                   
KBOS EXPECTED TO REMAIN ON LOWER END OF VFR /3-4KFT/ WITH PERSISTENT            
09010KT WIND THROUGH PERIOD. LOW PROBABILITY OF CEILINGS TEMPORARILY            
LOWERING TO NEAR 1KFT 20-24Z...BUT NOT ENOUGH FOR INCLUSION INTO TAF.           
OTHERWISE MVFR CEILINGS WITH AREAS OF IFR WILL PERSIST INTO THIS                
EVENING BEFORE SOME IMPROVEMENT OCCURS AFTER MIDNIGHT...BUT CEILINGS            
SHOULD REMAIN MVFR MOST OF NIGHT. LOW END VFR CEILINGS EXPECTED SAT.            
OUTLOOK...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...                                   
SATURDAY NIGHT...VFR.                                                           
SUNDAY...VFR DIMINISHING TO MVFR THEN IFR FROM WEST TO EAST IN                  
SHOWERS AND LOWERING CEILINGS.                                                  
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO VFR                 
GRADUALLY.                                                                      
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...VFR.                                                    
&&                                                                              
.MARINE...                                                                      
NO HEADLINES ATTM THROUGH SATURDAY. THERE MAY BE NEED FOR AN SCA IN             
BID VCNTY THIS AFTN AND TONIGHT BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW.                          
OUTLOOK...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...                                   
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...SEAS CONTINUE TO INCREASE WITH SCA SEAS             
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS.                                               
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...SEAS GRADUALLY DECREASE.                             
&&                                                                              
.HYDROLOGY...                                                                   
MINOR FLOODING CONTINUES ALONG MAINSTEM CT RIVER FROM HARTFORD                  
THROUGH MIDDLETOWN. LATEST NERFC GUIDANCE BRINGS HARTFORD BELOW FLOOD           
STAGE BY MIDNIGHT...BUT NOT AT MIDDLETOWN UNTIL EARLY SUN MORNING.              
PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN INTO TONIGHT WILL NOT IMPACT RIVER LEVELS.                
REFER TO THE LATEST FLOOD STATEMENT FOR FURTHER DETAILS.                        
&&                                                                              
.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
CT...NONE.                                                                      
MA...NONE.                                                                      
NH...NONE.                                                                      
RI...NONE.                                                                      
MARINE...NONE.                                                                  
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SYNOPSIS...DRAG                                                                 
NEAR TERM...KJC/DRAG                                                            
SHORT TERM...DRAG                                                               
LONG TERM...RLG                                                                 
AVIATION...JWD                                                                  
MARINE...DRAG/RLG                                                               
HYDROLOGY...JWD/AED                                                             
</pre> ct                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL                                         
944 PM EDT SAT MAY 3 2008                                                       
.UPDATE...                                                                      
WE WERE JUST ABOUT TO SEND OUR MARINE FORECAST WHEN THE 01 UTC                  
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS CAME IN. THE WINDS AT GULF BUOY 42039 WERE                 
SUSTAINED OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST AT 27 KNOTS...AND THEY WERE SOUTH                
AT 18 KNOTS AT THE C-TOWER (WHICH IS ABOUT 100 FT ASL).                         
CURIOUSLY...ALL BUT A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS REMAIN OVER THAT AREA SO                
THEY ARE NOT THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS. THE ONLY EXPLANATION LIES ON              
THE MESOSCALE...AS THERE NOW APPEARS TO BE A SMALL LOW PRESSURE/HIGH            
PRESSURE COUPLET IN THE NORTHEAST GULF. THESE TWO OBSERVATION                   
POINTS ARE CURRENTLY IN A SMALL BUT TIGHT GRADIENT BETWEEN THESE                
FEATURES...WHICH WERE PROBABLY INDUCED BY OUTFLOW FROM EARLIER                  
STORMS. OF COURSE NONE OF THE GLOBAL MODELS SHOW THIS                           
FEATURE...BUT THE LATEST RUC IS BEGINNING TO. WE UPDATED OUR WINDS              
AND SEAS BY ASSUMING THIS FEATURE WILL BE SHORT-LIVED. WE WILL                  
MENTION CAUTION WORDING FOR NOW...AS WE THINK THIS FEATURE WILL BE              
VERY SHORT-LIVED (2-3 HOURS).                                                   
&&                                                                              
.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
AL...NONE.                                                                      
GA...NONE.                                                                      
FL...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY EVENING            
     FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: BAY...CALHOUN...DIXIE...FRANKLIN...               
     GADSDEN...GULF...HOLMES...INLAND WALTON...JACKSON...                       
     JEFFERSON...LAFAYETTE...LEON...LIBERTY...MADISON...TAYLOR...               
     WAKULLA...WASHINGTON.                                                      
GM...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
FOURNIER                                                                        
</pre> fl                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL                                         
820 AM EDT SAT MAY 03 2008                                                      
.DISCUSSION...THE LINE OF CONVECTION OUT AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD                 
FRONT CONTINUES TO LOOK QUITE IMPRESSIVE THIS MORNING AS IT PUSHES              
RAPIDLY SOUTHEASTWARD FROM MS INTO AL. HOWEVER...AS IMPRESSIVE THIS             
LINE APPEARS NOW...THE BAND OF STRONG STORMS HAS NOT YET ENCOUNTERED            
THE DEEP LAYER RIDGING WHICH IS STILL PROTECTING THE CWA THIS                   
MORNING...AND ALL OF THE LATEST RUNS OF THE SHORT RANGE MODELS FROM             
THE NAM TO THE GFS TO THE RUC...ALL INDICATE A DRAMATIC WEAKENING               
TREND AS THESE STORMS APPROACH OUR CWA. FURTHERMORE...THE DYNAMICAL             
SUPPORT FOR THE COLD FRONT AT OUR LATITUDE WILL BE DECREASING AS                
WELL...AS THE PRIMARY UPPER LEVEL LOW HEADS QUICKLY N-NE INTO                   
SOUTHERN CANADA. ALSO...SFC DEWPOINTS ACROSS THE CWA ARE NOT QUITE              
AS FAVORABLE AS THEY ARE FURTHER OFF TO THE W...AND THEY WILL NEED              
TO RECOVER SIGNIFICANTLY FROM THE CURRENT MID 50S TO LOWER 60S TO               
SUPPORT ANY STRONG STORMS OVER OUR AREA LATER TODAY. THEREFORE...               
HAVE LITTLE REASON TO CHANGE THE CURRENT POP DISTRIBUTION AT THIS               
TIME...WHICH APPEARS TO REPRESENT THE LATEST MODEL TRENDS QUITE                 
WELL.                                                                           
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...A LINE OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS WILL SPREAD FROM WEST TO                
EAST ACROSS THE REGION TODAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. BY             
AFTERNOON...SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE             
COAST. AT 18Z...THE LINE OF SHOWERS/TSTMS SHOULD BE JUST WEST OF THE            
KDHN AND KPFN TERMINALS SLOWLY PUSHING EAST. SOME OF THE STORMS OVER            
SE AL AND THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE MAY BECOME SEVERE. AS THIS BOUNDARY             
PUSHES EAST TOWARD KTLH...KABY...AND KVLD DURING THE LATE                       
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING A WEAKENING TREND IS EXPECTED. LEFTOVER                 
SHOWERS WILL BE GETTING TO THE KVLD TERMINAL 00Z-06Z.                           
&&                                                                              
.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
AL...NONE.                                                                      
GA...NONE.                                                                      
FL...NONE.                                                                      
GM...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
GOULD/BARRY                                                                     
</pre> fl                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA                                       
1033 PM EDT SAT MAY 3 2008                                                      
.UPDATE...                                                                      
UPDATED TO REMOVE POPS FOR THE REST OF TONIGHT. MAIN VORTEX LOBE                
AND ASSOCIATED LIFT HAS SHIFTED NE...PUTTING AN END TO THE RAIN.                
A FEW SPRINKLES MAY BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE FAR EAST THROUGH LATE                
EVENING. OTHERWISE...LOOK FOR CLEARING SKIES THE REST OF TONIGHT.               
HAVE ALSO UPDATED WINDS WITH THE RUC13...WHICH BETTER CAPTURES                  
WAINING WIND SPEEDS. ALL ELSE LOOKS GOOD.                                       
&&                                                                              
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 744 PM EDT SAT MAY 3 2008/                           
AVIATION.../00Z TAFS/                                                           
AREA OF DEFORMATION PRECIP QUICKLY PUSHING EAST ACROSS PORTIONS                 
OF THE FA. EXPECT A PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS AND SHOWERS TO CONTINUE TO              
TRANSLATE EAST ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FA THROUGH THE                   
EVENING. UPSTREAM SFC OBS AND SAT TRENDS CLEARLY PORTRAY THE                    
EFFECTS OF SFC RIDGING...WITH CLOUDS QUICKLY SCT AND CLEARING                   
OVER IL. EXPECT BOTH TERMINALS TO BE AT VFR CONDITIONS BY LATE                  
EVENING...WITH SKC BY 09Z. GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO                
DIMINISH THROUGH THE NIGHT AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES. HIGH               
PRESSURE WILL BRING VFR CONDITIONS TO THE REGION SUN...WITH MOSTLY              
CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED.                                           
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 259 PM EDT SAT MAY 3 2008/                           
SHORT TERM...THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY...                                   
SFC COLD FRONT WASHING OUT AS WE SPEAK AS SFC LOW OVER ONTARIO                  
CONTINUES TO RAPIDLY PIVOT NWD AROUND HUDSON BAY UPPER LOW.                     
PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH EXTENDING FROM ROUGHLY ANN ARBOR TO DEFIANCE TO              
MUNCIE ATTM LOOKS TO BE ONLY FORCING MECHANISM STG ENOUGH TO SUPPORT            
ANYTHING MORE THAN VERY LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES THIS                    
AFTERNOON.                                                                      
THIS AFTERNOON...                                                               
AS SFC LOWS BOLTS NWD THROUGH ONTARIO...LOW LEVEL FORCING WILL BE               
TOUGH TO COME BY ALONG SFC AND H85 COLD FRONTS. DECENT COLD POOL AT             
H5 ALSO LOOKS TO BE QUICKLY PEELING NORTH PER RUC ANALYSIS.                     
THEREFORE...THOUGHT IT PRUDENT TO CUT POPS EVERYWHERE LEAVING JUST              
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES WEST OF                      
AFOREMENTIONED PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH. SFC DEW POINTS IN THE LOW 40S                
ALSO SUPPORT THIS NOTION AS DRY AIR HAS BEEN ABLE TO EASILY MIX TO              
SFC UNDER NEARLY FULL SUN OVER MUCH OF THE CWA TODAY. EXCEPTION TO              
THE LOW DEWPTS IS IN EXTREME ERN CWA WHERE LL SOUTHERLY FLOW HAS                
MAINTAINED MID 50S TD/S AHEAD OF TROUGH. LEFT HIGHER POPS IN ALLEN              
AND PUTNAM COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON AS DECENT CONVECTIVE ENVIRONMENT             
WILL STILL EXIST UNTIL PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH SLIDES THROUGH.                       
TONIGHT...CLOUDS THAT MOVE IN THIS AFTERNOON WILL QUICKLY MOVE OUT              
BY 6Z LEAVING CHANCE OF FROST EARLY SUN MORNING AS LOWS BOTTOM OUT              
IN UPPER 30S. IF PLAINS SFC HIGH SLIDES IN FAST ENOUGH TO ALLOW                 
WINDS TO DIE...SOME MID 30S WOULD EVEN BE POSSIBLE TOWARD                       
DAYBREAK...ESPECIALLY WESTERN CWA.                                              
SUNDAY...NICE DAY IN THE CARDS WITH TEMPS NEAR NORMAL AND MOSTLY                
SUNNY SKIES. A FEW CU WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON IN THE SOUTH            
WHERE A LITTLE MORE MOISTURE WILL BE AVAILABLE.                                 
LONG TERM...                                                                    
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY.                                                  
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTROL CONDITIONS INTO TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT                
WILL DROP SOUTH FROM THE PLAINS AND PASS THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT WITH             
A CHANCE OF SHOWERS. AFTER THIS TIME FRAME THINGS BECOME MORE                   
UNCERTAIN IN TERMS OF WHERE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL LAY OUT ACROSS THE            
REGION WITH SEVERAL WAVES STILL PROGGED TO MOVE ALONG IT WITH COLD              
AIR BOTTLED UP IN CANADA AND WARM...HUMID CONDITIONS DOWN IN THE                
GULF STATES...AT LEAST TO START WITH. ENSEMBLES IN SPIRIT BEGINNING             
TO COME INTO SOME AGREEMENT COMPARED TO RECENTLY BUT STILL SOME                 
DECENT SPREADS. MEN NUMBERS COMING BACK WITH STANDARD DEVIATIONS OF             
14 TO 16 INDICATIVE OF THE POTENTIAL ISSUES. SPREADS IN POPS OF 25              
TO 80 PERCENT NOTED. IN ORDER TO MATCH UP BETTER WITH COLLABORATION             
HAVE EXPANDED CHC POPS FOR WEDS AND WEDS EVE...THEREBY GIVING AN                
EXTENDED PERIOD FOR A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS. AT THIS                     
POINT...DON`T FEEL IT WILL BE A TOTAL WASHOUT THROUGH THE PERIOD                
WITH A FEW LULLS...BUT IF PATTERN DOES SETUP TIMING OF WAVES WILL BE            
TOO DIFFICULT AT THIS POINT TO GIVE MORE DETAIL.                                
WITH THE BOUNDARY IN THE AREA...WE COULD BE FACING LARGE TEMP                   
GRADIENTS THROUGH MUCH OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD UNTIL THE MAIN TROUGH             
STARTS TO DIG IN THE WEST AND ALLOW FOR RISING HGTS. FOR NOW HAVE               
KEPT THINGS IN THE 60S TO LOWER 70S WITH WARMEST AT THE BEGINNING               
AND END OF THE PERIOD AND SLIGHTLY COOLER MIDDLE OF THE PACKAGE WITH            
PRECIP CHCS AND MORE POSSIBLE CLOUD COVER.                                      
&&                                                                              
.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
IN...NONE.                                                                      
MI...NONE.                                                                      
OH...NONE.                                                                      
LM...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHORT TERM...SIMPSON                                                            
LONG TERM...FISHER                                                              
UPDATE/AVIATION...CHAMBERLAIN                                                   
</pre> in                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA                                       
846 PM EDT SAT MAY 3 2008                                                       
.UPDATE...                                                                      
DEFORMATION ZONE/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS ASSOCIATED WITH THE                    
DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM...IS CONTINUING TO SUPPORT WIDESPREAD             
LIGHT RAIN OVER PORTIONS OF NORTHERN IN AND SOUTHERN MI. FARTHER                
WEST...SKIES ARE QUICKLY CLEARING WITH SKC NOTED OVER MUCH OF IL                
AND WI PER SFC RIDGING. HAVE UPDATED TO INCREASE POPS IN THE                    
NE...PER RADAR TRENDS AND EXPECTED MOVEMENT. QPF VALUES ARE                     
EXPECTED TO REMAIN LOW...WITH GENERALLY NO MORE THAN 5 HUNDREDTHS               
EXPECTED. RAIN IS EXPECTED TO BE CLEAR OF THE FA SHORTLY AFTER                  
MIDNIGHT. CLOUDS WILL CLEAR WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE EVENING AND                
EARLY MORNING. PATCHY FROST MAY STILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE                        
WEST...WHERE TEMPS IN THE MID AND UPPER 30S AND A DIMINISHING WIND              
FIELD UNDER CLEAR SKIES WILL SUPPORT EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL                      
COOLING.                                                                        
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 744 PM EDT SAT MAY 3 2008/                          
AVIATION.../00Z TAFS/                                                           
AREA OF DEFORMATION PRECIP QUICKLY PUSHING EAST ACROSS PORTIONS                 
OF THE FA. EXPECT A PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS AND SHOWERS TO CONTINUE TO              
TRANSLATE EAST ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FA THROUGH THE                   
EVENING. UPSTREAM SFC OBS AND SAT TRENDS CLEARLY PORTRAY THE                    
EFFECTS OF SFC RIDGING...WITH CLOUDS QUICKLY SCT AND CLEARING                   
OVER IL. EXPECT BOTH TERMINALS TO BE AT VFR CONDITIONS BY LATE                  
EVENING...WITH SKC BY 09Z. GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO                
DIMINISH THROUGH THE NIGHT AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES. HIGH               
PRESSURE WILL BRING VFR CONDITIONS TO THE REGION SUN...WITH MOSTLY              
CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED.                                           
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 259 PM EDT SAT MAY 3 2008/                           
SHORT TERM...THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY...                                   
SFC COLD FRONT WASHING OUT AS WE SPEAK AS SFC LOW OVER ONTARIO                  
CONTINUES TO RAPIDLY PIVOT NWD AROUND HUDSON BAY UPPER LOW.                     
PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH EXTENDING FROM ROUGHLY ANN ARBOR TO DEFIANCE TO              
MUNCIE ATTM LOOKS TO BE ONLY FORCING MECHANISM STG ENOUGH TO SUPPORT            
ANYTHING MORE THAN VERY LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES THIS                    
AFTERNOON.                                                                      
THIS AFTERNOON...                                                               
AS SFC LOWS BOLTS NWD THROUGH ONTARIO...LOW LEVEL FORCING WILL BE               
TOUGH TO COME BY ALONG SFC AND H85 COLD FRONTS. DECENT COLD POOL AT             
H5 ALSO LOOKS TO BE QUICKLY PEELING NORTH PER RUC ANALYSIS.                     
THEREFORE...THOUGHT IT PRUDENT TO CUT POPS EVERYWHERE LEAVING JUST              
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES WEST OF                      
AFOREMENTIONED PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH. SFC DEW POINTS IN THE LOW 40S                
ALSO SUPPORT THIS NOTION AS DRY AIR HAS BEEN ABLE TO EASILY MIX TO              
SFC UNDER NEARLY FULL SUN OVER MUCH OF THE CWA TODAY. EXCEPTION TO              
THE LOW DEWPTS IS IN EXTREME ERN CWA WHERE LL SOUTHERLY FLOW HAS                
MAINTAINED MID 50S TD/S AHEAD OF TROUGH. LEFT HIGHER POPS IN ALLEN              
AND PUTNAM COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON AS DECENT CONVECTIVE ENVIRONMENT             
WILL STILL EXIST UNTIL PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH SLIDES THROUGH.                       
TONIGHT...CLOUDS THAT MOVE IN THIS AFTERNOON WILL QUICKLY MOVE OUT              
BY 6Z LEAVING CHANCE OF FROST EARLY SUN MORNING AS LOWS BOTTOM OUT              
IN UPPER 30S. IF PLAINS SFC HIGH SLIDES IN FAST ENOUGH TO ALLOW                 
WINDS TO DIE...SOME MID 30S WOULD EVEN BE POSSIBLE TOWARD                       
DAYBREAK...ESPECIALLY WESTERN CWA.                                              
SUNDAY...NICE DAY IN THE CARDS WITH TEMPS NEAR NORMAL AND MOSTLY                
SUNNY SKIES. A FEW CU WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON IN THE SOUTH            
WHERE A LITTLE MORE MOISTURE WILL BE AVAILABLE.                                 
LONG TERM...                                                                    
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY.                                                  
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTROL CONDITIONS INTO TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT                
WILL DROP SOUTH FROM THE PLAINS AND PASS THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT WITH             
A CHANCE OF SHOWERS. AFTER THIS TIME FRAME THINGS BECOME MORE                   
UNCERTAIN IN TERMS OF WHERE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL LAY OUT ACROSS THE            
REGION WITH SEVERAL WAVES STILL PROGGED TO MOVE ALONG IT WITH COLD              
AIR BOTTLED UP IN CANADA AND WARM...HUMID CONDITIONS DOWN IN THE                
GULF STATES...AT LEAST TO START WITH. ENSEMBLES IN SPIRIT BEGINNING             
TO COME INTO SOME AGREEMENT COMPARED TO RECENTLY BUT STILL SOME                 
DECENT SPREADS. MEN NUMBERS COMING BACK WITH STANDARD DEVIATIONS OF             
14 TO 16 INDICATIVE OF THE POTENTIAL ISSUES. SPREADS IN POPS OF 25              
TO 80 PERCENT NOTED. IN ORDER TO MATCH UP BETTER WITH COLLABORATION             
HAVE EXPANDED CHC POPS FOR WEDS AND WEDS EVE...THEREBY GIVING AN                
EXTENDED PERIOD FOR A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS. AT THIS                     
POINT...DON`T FEEL IT WILL BE A TOTAL WASHOUT THROUGH THE PERIOD                
WITH A FEW LULLS...BUT IF PATTERN DOES SETUP TIMING OF WAVES WILL BE            
TOO DIFFICULT AT THIS POINT TO GIVE MORE DETAIL.                                
WITH THE BOUNDARY IN THE AREA...WE COULD BE FACING LARGE TEMP                   
GRADIENTS THROUGH MUCH OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD UNTIL THE MAIN TROUGH             
STARTS TO DIG IN THE WEST AND ALLOW FOR RISING HGTS. FOR NOW HAVE               
KEPT THINGS IN THE 60S TO LOWER 70S WITH WARMEST AT THE BEGINNING               
AND END OF THE PERIOD AND SLIGHTLY COOLER MIDDLE OF THE PACKAGE WITH            
PRECIP CHCS AND MORE POSSIBLE CLOUD COVER.                                      
&&                                                                              
.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
IN...NONE.                                                                      
MI...NONE.                                                                      
OH...NONE.                                                                      
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LMZ043-046.          
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHORT TERM...SIMPSON                                                            
LONG TERM...FISHER                                                              
UPDATE/AVIATION...CHAMBERLAIN                                                   
</pre> in                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA                                       
744 PM EDT SAT MAY 3 2008                                                       
.AVIATION.../00Z TAFS/                                                          
AREA OF DEFORMATION PRECIP QUICKLY PUSHING EAST ACROSS PORTIONS                 
OF THE FA. EXPECT A PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS AND SHOWERS TO CONTINUE TO              
TRANSLATE EAST ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FA THROUGH THE                   
EVENING. UPSTREAM SFC OBS AND SAT TRENDS CLEARLY PORTRAY THE                    
EFFECTS OF SFC RIDGING...WITH CLOUDS QUICKLY SCT AND CLEARING                   
OVER IL. EXPECT BOTH TERMINALS TO BE AT VFR CONDITIONS BY LATE                  
EVENING...WITH SKC BY 09Z. GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO                
DIMINISH THROUGH THE NIGHT AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES. HIGH               
PRESSURE WILL BRING VFR CONDITIONS TO THE REGION SUN...WITH MOSTLY              
CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED.                                           
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 259 PM EDT SAT MAY 3 2008/                          
SHORT TERM...THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY...                                   
SFC COLD FRONT WASHING OUT AS WE SPEAK AS SFC LOW OVER ONTARIO                  
CONTINUES TO RAPIDLY PIVOT NWD AROUND HUDSON BAY UPPER LOW.                     
PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH EXTENDING FROM ROUGHLY ANN ARBOR TO DEFIANCE TO              
MUNCIE ATTM LOOKS TO BE ONLY FORCING MECHANISM STG ENOUGH TO SUPPORT            
ANYTHING MORE THAN VERY LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES THIS                    
AFTERNOON.                                                                      
THIS AFTERNOON...                                                               
AS SFC LOWS BOLTS NWD THROUGH ONTARIO...LOW LEVEL FORCING WILL BE               
TOUGH TO COME BY ALONG SFC AND H85 COLD FRONTS. DECENT COLD POOL AT             
H5 ALSO LOOKS TO BE QUICKLY PEELING NORTH PER RUC ANALYSIS.                     
THEREFORE...THOUGHT IT PRUDENT TO CUT POPS EVERYWHERE LEAVING JUST              
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES WEST OF                      
AFOREMENTIONED PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH. SFC DEW POINTS IN THE LOW 40S                
ALSO SUPPORT THIS NOTION AS DRY AIR HAS BEEN ABLE TO EASILY MIX TO              
SFC UNDER NEARLY FULL SUN OVER MUCH OF THE CWA TODAY. EXCEPTION TO              
THE LOW DEWPTS IS IN EXTREME ERN CWA WHERE LL SOUTHERLY FLOW HAS                
MAINTAINED MID 50S TD/S AHEAD OF TROUGH. LEFT HIGHER POPS IN ALLEN              
AND PUTNAM COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON AS DECENT CONVECTIVE ENVIRONMENT             
WILL STILL EXIST UNTIL PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH SLIDES THROUGH.                       
TONIGHT...CLOUDS THAT MOVE IN THIS AFTERNOON WILL QUICKLY MOVE OUT              
BY 6Z LEAVING CHANCE OF FROST EARLY SUN MORNING AS LOWS BOTTOM OUT              
IN UPPER 30S. IF PLAINS SFC HIGH SLIDES IN FAST ENOUGH TO ALLOW                 
WINDS TO DIE...SOME MID 30S WOULD EVEN BE POSSIBLE TOWARD                       
DAYBREAK...ESPECIALLY WESTERN CWA.                                              
SUNDAY...NICE DAY IN THE CARDS WITH TEMPS NEAR NORMAL AND MOSTLY                
SUNNY SKIES. A FEW CU WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON IN THE SOUTH            
WHERE A LITTLE MORE MOISTURE WILL BE AVAILABLE.                                 
LONG TERM...                                                                    
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY.                                                  
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTROL CONDITIONS INTO TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT                
WILL DROP SOUTH FROM THE PLAINS AND PASS THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT WITH             
A CHANCE OF SHOWERS. AFTER THIS TIME FRAME THINGS BECOME MORE                   
UNCERTAIN IN TERMS OF WHERE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL LAY OUT ACROSS THE            
REGION WITH SEVERAL WAVES STILL PROGGED TO MOVE ALONG IT WITH COLD              
AIR BOTTLED UP IN CANADA AND WARM...HUMID CONDITIONS DOWN IN THE                
GULF STATES...AT LEAST TO START WITH. ENSEMBLES IN SPIRIT BEGINNING             
TO COME INTO SOME AGREEMENT COMPARED TO RECENTLY BUT STILL SOME                 
DECENT SPREADS. MEN NUMBERS COMING BACK WITH STANDARD DEVIATIONS OF             
14 TO 16 INDICATIVE OF THE POTENTIAL ISSUES. SPREADS IN POPS OF 25              
TO 80 PERCENT NOTED. IN ORDER TO MATCH UP BETTER WITH COLLABORATION             
HAVE EXPANDED CHC POPS FOR WEDS AND WEDS EVE...THEREBY GIVING AN                
EXTENDED PERIOD FOR A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS. AT THIS                     
POINT...DON`T FEEL IT WILL BE A TOTAL WASHOUT THROUGH THE PERIOD                
WITH A FEW LULLS...BUT IF PATTERN DOES SETUP TIMING OF WAVES WILL BE            
TOO DIFFICULT AT THIS POINT TO GIVE MORE DETAIL.                                
WITH THE BOUNDARY IN THE AREA...WE COULD BE FACING LARGE TEMP                   
GRADIENTS THROUGH MUCH OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD UNTIL THE MAIN TROUGH             
STARTS TO DIG IN THE WEST AND ALLOW FOR RISING HGTS. FOR NOW HAVE               
KEPT THINGS IN THE 60S TO LOWER 70S WITH WARMEST AT THE BEGINNING               
AND END OF THE PERIOD AND SLIGHTLY COOLER MIDDLE OF THE PACKAGE WITH            
PRECIP CHCS AND MORE POSSIBLE CLOUD COVER.                                      
&&                                                                              
.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
IN...NONE.                                                                      
MI...NONE.                                                                      
OH...NONE.                                                                      
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LMZ043-046.          
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHORT TERM...SIMPSON                                                            
LONG TERM...FISHER                                                              
AVIATION...CHAMBERLAIN                                                          
</pre> in                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA                                       
259 PM EDT SAT MAY 3 2008                                                       
.SHORT TERM...THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY...                                  
SFC COLD FRONT WASHING OUT AS WE SPEAK AS SFC LOW OVER ONTARIO                  
CONTINUES TO RAPIDLY PIVOT NWD AROUND HUDSON BAY UPPER LOW.                     
PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH EXTENDING FROM ROUGHLY ANN ARBOR TO DEFIANCE TO              
MUNCIE ATTM LOOKS TO BE ONLY FORCING MECHANISM STG ENOUGH TO SUPPORT            
ANYTHING MORE THAN VERY LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES THIS                    
AFTERNOON.                                                                      
THIS AFTERNOON...                                                               
AS SFC LOWS BOLTS NWD THROUGH ONTARIO...LOW LEVEL FORCING WILL BE               
TOUGH TO COME BY ALONG SFC AND H85 COLD FRONTS. DECENT COLD POOL AT             
H5 ALSO LOOKS TO BE QUICKLY PEELING NORTH PER RUC ANALYSIS.                     
THEREFORE...THOUGHT IT PRUDENT TO CUT POPS EVERYWHERE LEAVING JUST              
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES WEST OF                      
AFOREMENTIONED PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH. SFC DEW POINTS IN THE LOW 40S                
ALSO SUPPORT THIS NOTION AS DRY AIR HAS BEEN ABLE TO EASILY MIX TO              
SFC UNDER NEARLY FULL SUN OVER MUCH OF THE CWA TODAY. EXCEPTION TO              
THE LOW DEWPTS IS IN EXTREME ERN CWA WHERE LL SOUTHERLY FLOW HAS                
MAINTAINED MID 50S TD/S AHEAD OF TROUGH. LEFT HIGHER POPS IN ALLEN              
AND PUTNAM COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON AS DECENT CONVECTIVE ENVIRONMENT             
WILL STILL EXIST UNTIL PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH SLIDES THROUGH.                       
TONIGHT...CLOUDS THAT MOVE IN THIS AFTERNOON WILL QUICKLY MOVE OUT              
BY 6Z LEAVING CHANCE OF FROST EARLY SUN MORNING AS LOWS BOTTOM OUT              
IN UPPER 30S. IF PLAINS SFC HIGH SLIDES IN FAST ENOUGH TO ALLOW                 
WINDS TO DIE...SOME MID 30S WOULD EVEN BE POSSIBLE TOWARD                       
DAYBREAK...ESPECIALLY WESTERN CWA.                                              
SUNDAY...NICE DAY IN THE CARDS WITH TEMPS NEAR NORMAL AND MOSTLY                
SUNNY SKIES. A FEW CU WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON IN THE SOUTH            
WHERE A LITTLE MORE MOISTURE WILL BE AVAILABLE.                                 
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM...                                                                   
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY.                                                  
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTROL CONDITIONS INTO TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT                
WILL DROP SOUTH FROM THE PLAINS AND PASS THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT WITH             
A CHANCE OF SHOWERS. AFTER THIS TIME FRAME THINGS BECOME MORE                   
UNCERTAIN IN TERMS OF WHERE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL LAY OUT ACROSS THE            
REGION WITH SEVERAL WAVES STILL PROGGED TO MOVE ALONG IT WITH COLD              
AIR BOTTLED UP IN CANADA AND WARM...HUMID CONDITIONS DOWN IN THE                
GULF STATES...AT LEAST TO START WITH. ENSEMBLES IN SPIRIT BEGINNING             
TO COME INTO SOME AGREEMENT COMPARED TO RECENTLY BUT STILL SOME                 
DECENT SPREADS. MEN NUMBERS COMING BACK WITH STANDARD DEVIATIONS OF             
14 TO 16 INDICATIVE OF THE POTENTIAL ISSUES. SPREADS IN POPS OF 25              
TO 80 PERCENT NOTED. IN ORDER TO MATCH UP BETTER WITH COLLABORATION             
HAVE EXPANDED CHC POPS FOR WEDS AND WEDS EVE...THEREBY GIVING AN                
EXTENDED PERIOD FOR A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS. AT THIS                     
POINT...DON`T FEEL IT WILL BE A TOTAL WASHOUT THROUGH THE PERIOD                
WITH A FEW LULLS...BUT IF PATTERN DOES SETUP TIMING OF WAVES WILL BE            
TOO DIFFICULT AT THIS POINT TO GIVE MORE DETAIL.                                
WITH THE BOUNDARY IN THE AREA...WE COULD BE FACING LARGE TEMP                   
GRADIENTS THROUGH MUCH OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD UNTIL THE MAIN TROUGH             
STARTS TO DIG IN THE WEST AND ALLOW FOR RISING HGTS. FOR NOW HAVE               
KEPT THINGS IN THE 60S TO LOWER 70S WITH WARMEST AT THE BEGINNING               
AND END OF THE PERIOD AND SLIGHTLY COOLER MIDDLE OF THE PACKAGE WITH            
PRECIP CHCS AND MORE POSSIBLE CLOUD COVER.                                      
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...DISCUSSION FOR 18Z TAFS...                                          
MVFR CONDS WILL DEVELOP EWD ALONG AND JUST BEHIND COLD FRONT OVER               
TAF SITES LATER THIS AFTERNOON WITH CIGS DETERIORATING TO BELOW 3KFT            
BY 18Z AT KSBN AND BY 19-20Z AT KFWA. SKIES THEN EXPECTED TO GO SKC             
BETWEEN 00-06Z TONIGHT AS DRY AIR THROUGH THE COLUMN QUICKLY                    
WORKS IN AS SFC LOW ROTATES NWD AROUND HUDSON BAY UPPER LOW. GUSTY              
WSW WINDS WILL EVENTUALLY DIE DOWN TONIGHT AS PLAINS SFC RIDGING                
BUILDS IN AND PRES GRADIENT RELAXES.                                            
&&                                                                              
.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
IN...NONE.                                                                      
MI...NONE.                                                                      
OH...NONE.                                                                      
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LMZ043-046.          
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHORT TERM...SIMPSON                                                            
LONG TERM...LASHLEY                                                             
AVIATION...SIMPSON                                                              
</pre> in                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA                                       
725 AM EDT FRI MAY 2 2008                                                       
.AVIATION/UPDATE...                                                             
ELEVATED MIXED LAYER FINALLY BEGINNING TO GIVE WAY WITH INCREASE                
AS WEAK WAVE MOVES IN FOR THIS MORNING. EFFECTS ALREADY EVIDENT AS              
SHOWERS AND STORMS RAPIDLY DEVELOPING ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF               
THE AREA IN THE PAST HALF HOUR. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND STORMS WERE              
DEVELOPING IN CENTRAL ILLINOIS AS WELL WITH A FEW HAIL REPORTS                  
ALREADY NEAR OR JUST AT SEVERE LEVELS COMING OUT. BASED ON                      
TRENDS...GREATEST CONCENTRATION OF ACTIVITY WILL BE ACROSS SE HALF              
OF THE CWA THROUGH 14-15Z...WITH THE ACTIVITY IN CNTRL ILLINOIS                 
HITTING THE NW HALF (POSSIBLY MORE) AFTER 14-15Z. THEN LINE OF                  
STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO RACE EAST NORTHEAST TOWARDS THE AREA FROM               
WESTERN ILLINOIS. FOR THE MOST PART THIS IS STILL SHOWING A                     
WEAKENING TREND BUT THERE AREA A FEW BANDS OF STORMS THAT APPEAR                
TO BE HOLDING THEIR OWN AT THIS TIME. WILL MONITOR AS WELL. AT A                
MINIMUM WILL HAVE TO UPDATE GRIDS/ZONES TO GO HIGH SCT POPS IF NOT              
NUMEROUS SHOWERS/STORMS THROUGH AT LEAST 18Z AND SEE ABOUT                      
EXPANDING THIS AFTERNOON.                                                       
IN TERMS OF AVIATION...BASES/VSBYS ARE STILL IN THE VFR RANGE AND               
TAFS REFLECT THIS ALONG WITH A TEMPO TO COVER THE ACTIVITY THIS                 
MORNING. FURTHER DETAIL WILL BE ADDED BEYOND 18Z IN LATER                       
AMENDMENTS/FORECASTS AS SITUATION EVOLVES.                                      
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 404 AM EDT FRI MAY 2 2008/                          
SHORT TERM...                                                                   
CONUNDRUM THIS MORNING IS WHERE/WHEN/HOW CONV EVOLVES THROUGH TDA.              
SVRL POSSIBILITIES EXIST YET MOST CONVINCING NR TERM IS W/SUBTLE SW             
LIFTING OUT OF MO. EARLIER MID LVL RTNS ACRS WRN IL FINALLY SHOWING             
SOME SIGNS OF LIFE W/CONVN NOW SEEN NR EFFINGHAM IL AND ON ERN EDGE             
OF MID LVL HGT FALLS ASSOCD/W DEEP PLAINS TROUGH SPREADING EWD AND              
COLLOCATED W/SECONDARY THETA-E SURGE ADVTG NEWD OUT OF THE LWR MS               
VALLEY. EXTRAPOLATION PUTS THIS INTO SWRN ZONES BY 12Z ASSUMING IT              
MAINTAINS BUT IS REFLECTED IN 06Z RUC PROGS. HWVR EXPECTATIONS AT               
THIS POINT TEMPERED BY SVR EML IN PLACE AND CAPTURED WELL IN 00Z                
RAOBS LAST EVENING AT KILX/KSGF AND WHICH WILL BE SLOW TO ERODE THIS            
MORNING.                                                                        
OTHERWISE MOST REALISTIC MODEL SOLUTION LIES W/00Z HIGH RES NMM                 
WHICH HAS A SUPERIOR HANDLE ON INTENSE SVR SQUALL LINE STRETCHING FM            
NW MO INTO N TX THIS MORNING. DOUBT THIS LINE WILL DECAY ENTIRELY               
GIVEN MESOSCALE DVLPMNT OF LARGE BOW HEAD AND DEEP OUTFLW BNDRY                 
ALTHOUGH SOME WEAKENING XPCD THROUGH MID MORNING AS IT APPROACHES MS            
RVR VALLEY. HWVR DOWNSTREAM AIRMASS AT THAT TIME LOOKS TO                       
DESTABILIZE ENOUGH EVEN W/DIRTY WARM SECTOR TO LEAD TO A                        
RE-INTENSIFICATION THIS AFTN W/STILL UNCERTAIN TIMING PUTTING IT                
INTO NW IN TWD 21Z AND WELL INTO CWA BY 00Z W/SOME RISK FOR DAMAGING            
WINDS/HAIL THIS EVENING.                                                        
SECONDARY CONCERNS THEN TIED TO STG CDFNT WHICH ACCELERATES EWD                 
TONIGHT AS MID LVL TROUGH OPENS AND LOOKS TO PARTIALLY PHASE                    
W/RETROGRADING DEEP LOW OVR SW HUDSON BAY. DEEP FORCED ASCENT ALG               
THE CDFNT AND SIG UPSTREAM DRY INTRUSION SHLD AIDE REDVLPMNT OF                 
ANOTHER CONV LINE AFT MIDNIGHT WHICH WILL TRANSLATE RAPIDLY EWD.                
DRYSLOT OVERSPREADING AREA LATE TONIGHT SHLD PROMOTE SOME HEATING               
SAT                                                                             
MORNING W/AT LEAST LIMITED INSOLATION XPCD. THIS SHLD SETUP ANOTHER             
POTENTIAL LINE OF LOW TOPPED STORMS BY LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTN AS               
COLD CORE UPR TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH AND HOLDS AT LEAST A MARGINAL               
HAIL RISK AS DENOTED IN DY2 OUTLOOK ALTHOUGH TIMING SUGGEST BTR CHCS            
CNTRL AND EAST.                                                                 
WILL KEEP CLOSE TO CONTINUITY FOR TEMPS THROUGHOUT YET A BIT WARMER             
FOR HIGHS THIS AFTN AND SAT.                                                    
LONG TERM...                                                                    
SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...THE MAIN CHALLENGES THIS COMING WEEK                  
INCLUDE THE POSSIBILITY OF THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE IN                
THE FORECAST PERIOD AS AN UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM EJECTS INTO THE AREA.              
BUT BEFORE THIS SYSTEM ARRIVES...A LARGE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL                
LIFT NORTH AWAY FROM THE REGION EARLY SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS            
IN FROM THE WEST. NOT MUCH COLD AIR WILL BE ABLE TO MAKE IT INTO THE            
AREA AS RETURN FLOW WILL BEGIN EARLY NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER...WITH CLEAR            
TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS AND A RELATIVELY DRY AIRMASS             
SUNDAY NIGHT...HAVE LOWERED TEMPS TO BASICALLY 37F TO 39F. THE GFS              
MEX OVER THE LAST 3 TO 4 DAYS APPEARS TO BE ON TRACK WITH TRENDING              
DOWN LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO THE 30S. FROST IS STILL POSSIBLE SUNDAY             
NIGHT...ESPECIALLY OVER NORTHEAST AREAS. AFTER THAT...TEMPERATURES              
SHOULD RECOVER CLOSE TO NORMAL BY WEDNESDAY AS A WEAK UPPER LEVEL               
RIDGE PERSISTS OVER THE REGION. TIMING OF THE SECOND SYSTEM AND THE             
POSSIBILITY OF SOME WEAKER SHORTWAVES REACHING THE AREA EARLIER                 
BEFORE THE MAIN SYSTEM ARE STILL IN QUESTION...SO WAS HESITANT TO               
MAKE ANY CHANGES PAST MONDAY. THE NEW 00Z ECMWF BRINGS A NEGATIVELY             
TILTED AND POTENT SHORTWAVE INTO THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY LATE IN             
THE PERIOD WHICH WOULD INDICATE A VERY ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN.                  
&&                                                                              
.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
IN...NONE.                                                                      
MI...NONE.                                                                      
OH...NONE.                                                                      
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING             
     FOR LMZ043-046.                                                            
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
UPDATE...FISHER                                                                 
SHORT TERM/AVIATION...HOLSTEN                                                   
LONG TERM...SKIP                                                                
</pre> in                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA                                       
404 AM EDT FRI MAY 2 2008                                                       
.SHORT TERM...                                                                  
CONUNDRUM THIS MORNING IS WHERE/WHEN/HOW CONV EVOLVES THROUGH TDA.              
SVRL POSSIBILITIES EXIST YET MOST CONVINCING NR TERM IS W/SUBTLE SW             
LIFTING OUT OF MO. EARLIER MID LVL RTNS ACRS WRN IL FINALLY SHOWING             
SOME SIGNS OF LIFE W/CONVN NOW SEEN NR EFFINGHAM IL AND ON ERN EDGE             
OF MID LVL HGT FALLS ASSOCD/W DEEP PLAINS TROUGH SPREADING EWD AND              
COLLOCATED W/SECONDARY THETA-E SURGE ADVTG NEWD OUT OF THE LWR MS               
VALLEY. EXTRAPOLATION PUTS THIS INTO SWRN ZONES BY 12Z ASSUMING IT              
MAINTAINS BUT IS REFLECTED IN 06Z RUC PROGS. HWVR EXPECTATIONS AT               
THIS POINT TEMPERED BY SVR EML IN PLACE AND CAPTURED WELL IN 00Z                
RAOBS LAST EVENING AT KILX/KSGF AND WHICH WILL BE SLOW TO ERODE THIS            
MORNING.                                                                        
OTHERWISE MOST REALISTIC MODEL SOLUTION LIES W/00Z HIGH RES NMM                 
WHICH HAS A SUPERIOR HANDLE ON INTENSE SVR SQUALL LINE STRETCHING FM            
NW MO INTO N TX THIS MORNING. DOUBT THIS LINE WILL DECAY ENTIRELY               
GIVEN MESOSCALE DVLPMNT OF LARGE BOW HEAD AND DEEP OUTFLW BNDRY                 
ALTHOUGH SOME WEAKENING XPCD THROUGH MID MORNING AS IT APPROACHES MS            
RVR VALLEY. HWVR DOWNSTREAM AIRMASS AT THAT TIME LOOKS TO                       
DESTABILIZE ENOUGH EVEN W/DIRTY WARM SECTOR TO LEAD TO A                        
RE-INTENSIFICATION THIS AFTN W/STILL UNCERTAIN TIMING PUTTING IT                
INTO NW IN TWD 21Z AND WELL INTO CWA BY 00Z W/SOME RISK FOR DAMAGING            
WINDS/HAIL THIS EVENING.                                                        
SECONDARY CONCERNS THEN TIED TO STG CDFNT WHICH ACCELERATES EWD                 
TONIGHT AS MID LVL TROUGH OPENS AND LOOKS TO PARTIALLY PHASE                    
W/RETROGRADING DEEP LOW OVR SW HUDSON BAY. DEEP FORCED ASCENT ALG               
THE CDFNT AND SIG UPSTREAM DRY INTRUSION SHLD AIDE REDVLPMNT OF                 
ANOTHER CONV LINE AFT MIDNIGHT WHICH WILL TRANSLATE RAPIDLY EWD.                
DRYSLOT OVERSPREADING AREA LATE TONIGHT SHLD PROMOTE SOME HEATING               
SAT                                                                             
MORNING W/AT LEAST LIMITED INSOLATION XPCD. THIS SHLD SETUP ANOTHER             
POTENTIAL LINE OF LOW TOPPED STORMS BY LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTN AS               
COLD CORE UPR TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH AND HOLDS AT LEAST A MARGINAL               
HAIL RISK AS DENOTED IN DY2 OUTLOOK ALTHOUGH TIMING SUGGEST BTR CHCS            
CNTRL AND EAST.                                                                 
WILL KEEP CLOSE TO CONTINUITY FOR TEMPS THROUGHOUT YET A BIT WARMER             
FOR HIGHS THIS AFTN AND SAT.                                                    
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM...                                                                   
SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...THE MAIN CHALLENGES THIS COMING WEEK                  
INCLUDE THE POSSIBILITY OF THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE IN                
THE FORECAST PERIOD AS AN UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM EJECTS INTO THE AREA.              
BUT BEFORE THIS SYSTEM ARRIVES...A LARGE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL                
LIFT NORTH AWAY FROM THE REGION EARLY SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS            
IN FROM THE WEST. NOT MUCH COLD AIR WILL BE ABLE TO MAKE IT INTO THE            
AREA AS RETURN FLOW WILL BEGIN EARLY NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER...WITH CLEAR            
TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS AND A RELATIVELY DRY AIRMASS             
SUNDAY NIGHT...HAVE LOWERED TEMPS TO BASICALLY 37F TO 39F. THE GFS              
MEX OVER THE LAST 3 TO 4 DAYS APPEARS TO BE ON TRACK WITH TRENDING              
DOWN LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO THE 30S. FROST IS STILL POSSIBLE SUNDAY             
NIGHT...ESPECIALLY OVER NORTHEAST AREAS. AFTER THAT...TEMPERATURES              
SHOULD RECOVER CLOSE TO NORMAL BY WEDNESDAY AS A WEAK UPPER LEVEL               
RIDGE PERSISTS OVER THE REGION. TIMING OF THE SECOND SYSTEM AND THE             
POSSIBILITY OF SOME WEAKER SHORTWAVES REACHING THE AREA EARLIER                 
BEFORE THE MAIN SYSTEM ARE STILL IN QUESTION...SO WAS HESITANT TO               
MAKE ANY CHANGES PAST MONDAY. THE NEW 00Z ECMWF BRINGS A NEGATIVELY             
TILTED AND POTENT SHORTWAVE INTO THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY LATE IN             
THE PERIOD WHICH WOULD INDICATE A VERY ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN.                  
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
STG WAA CONTS THIS MORNING DOWNSTREAM OF DEEP PLAINS LOW PRES. HWVR             
STEEP EML IN PLACE PUTTING A DISTINCT LID ON ANY CONV OVERTURNING               
WITHIN ELEVATED INSTABILITY PLUME AND OTHER THEN A STRAY LIGHT                  
SHOWER/SPRINKLE NO PROBLEMS ANTICIPATED THROUGH DAYBREAK. OTHERWISE             
SUBTLE SW TROUGH EJECTING NEWD OUT OF MO AND ENCROACHING MID LVL HGT            
FALLS ASSOCD/W DEEP PLAINS TROUGH WILL LEAD TO A GRADUAL EROSION OF             
EML WHILE DEEPER THETA-E SURGE OCCURS AND CURRENT ARCING LINE OF MID            
LVL RTNS FM NR KSTL TO KPAH A MARKER FOR LEADING EDGE OF BTR MID LVL            
ASCENT ASSOCD/W THIS FTR. EXTRAPOLATION PUTS IT INTO AREA TWD 13Z               
AND FODDER FOR PSBL TEMPO CB INSERTION W/12Z ISSUANCE. FOR NOW WILL             
RELEGATE MENTION TO AFTN PD TIED TO PREFNTL TROUGH SPRTG INTENSE                
SQUALL LINE/LARGE BOW ECHO FM NW MO-NC TX AND ITS LIKELY INTACT TREK            
E/NE INTO THE AREA BY LT AFTN/EVENING. VFR OTHERWISE W/INCREASING               
GRADIENT FLW AND GUSTS ~ 25KTS BY EARLY AFTN.                                   
&&                                                                              
.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
IN...NONE.                                                                      
MI...NONE.                                                                      
OH...NONE.                                                                      
LM...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHORT TERM...HOLSTEN                                                            
LONG TERM...SKIP                                                                
AVIATION...HOLSTEN                                                              
</pre> in                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA                                          
1145 PM CDT THU MAY 1 2008                                                      
UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION                                                     
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT                                                           
SURFACE LOW OVER EASTERN NEBRASKA AT 20Z WITH DRY LING PUSHING                  
ACROSS THE MO RIVER ALONG THE WESTERN IA BORDER.  PREFER GFS AND RUC            
SOLN THIS EVENING WITH DRY LINE MOVING INTO THE WESTERN FA AND                  
SURFACE LOW REMAINING NW OF IA.  DRY LINE SHOULD STALL AS IT REACHES            
CENTRAL IA SINCE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT IS HANGING BACK TO THE WEST.               
NARROW AXIS OF CAPES AND CNVG EAST OF DRY LINE WITH INCREASING DEEP             
SHEAR AND GOOD LOW-LVL SHEAR.  TSTM CHANCES INHIBITED BY STRONG MID             
LVL CAP. SHOULD CAP BREAK...EXPECT PSBL SVR WX IN WRN AND NW CWA                
THIS EVENING FM SCT TO ISOLD STORMS.  MCS MAY MOVE INTO SRN IA AFTER            
06Z AND WILL FORECAST HIGHER POPS THEN.  SEVERE CHANCES WILL BE LESS            
HOWEVER.                                                                        
.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY                                           
SURFACE LOW EXPECTED TO MOVE NE THROUGH IA ON FRIDAY AS A VIGOROUS              
TROUGH ROTATES AROUND SE SIDE OF UPPER LOW. THIS SHOULD MAKE FOR                
RAPIDLY CHANGING WEATHER AS REMAINS OF OVERNIGHT CONVECTION LIFTS               
NEWD THROUGH EASTERN PORTIONS OF IA. REDEVELOPMENT OF SECOND ROUND              
OF CONVECTION IS EXPECTED AROUND MIDDAY...ESPECIALLY N AND E. THERE             
WOULD BE SOME THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER EAST OF MARSHALLTOWN-GRINNELL            
WITH FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR LOW-TOPPED ROTATING STORMS BUT                    
RESIDENCE TIME IN OUR FORECAST AREA WILL BE SHORT. FRIDAY NIGHT AND             
SATURDAY...UPPER LOW AND COLD POOL MOVE ACROSS IA. RAIN IN                      
DEFORMATION ZONE WILL BE MOST PROLONGED NW OF FORT DODGE...AND                  
FORECAST TEMPERATURE PROFILES EVEN INDICATE A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW              
IS POSSIBLE LATE FRIDAY NIGHT EARLY SATURDAY. THIS WILL HOLD                    
TEMPERATURES DOWN AROUND OR BELOW 50 DEGREES THROUGH SATURDAY.                  
RAINFALL COLD BE SUFFICIENT IN THE EAST AND NORTH TO BRING RIVERS               
BACK UP TOWARD FLOOD STAGE. HOWEVER...AT THIS TIME MOISTURE DOES NOT            
LOOK NEARLY AS DEEP AS PREVIOUS SYSTEM AND STORM LOOK TO BE                     
PROGRESSIVE. THUS...TOTAL RAINFALL SHOULD BE LESS THAN ONE INCH IN              
GENERAL AND AS SUCH FLASH FLOODING WOULD BE LESS OF A CONCERN.                  
SUNDAY AND MONDAY LOOK TO BE NICE WITH A SLOW MODERATION IN                     
TEMPERATURES. AFTER THAT...GFS MODEL WOULD LIKE TO BRING IN WARM                
ADVECTION AND A CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION AS EARLY AS MONDAY                     
NIGHT...AND HAVE IT EXIT ALREADY ON WEDENSDAY. THIS IS QUITE A BIT              
FASTER THAN PREVIOUS RUNS...AND ECMWF IS SLOWER AND FARTHER TO THE              
SOUTH WITH ITS FORCING FOR PRECIPITATION.  RESULT IN FORECAST IS A              
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDER CENTERED ON WEDNESDAY...WITH BEGIN AND            
END TIME SPREAD OUT INTO ADJOINING DAYS AND EXACT TIMING TO BE                  
DETERMINED.                                                                     
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...02/06Z                                                              
THREAT OF CONVECTION IS LEAVING CENTRAL IA TEMPORARILY. BUT...NEXT              
MCS IN EASTERN KS WILL BE STREAKING NORTHEAST INTO SRN IA AROUND                
08-09Z. WILL BEING TS MENTION SOUTH TO NORTH AFT 09Z. AS SFC LOW                
MIGRATES OVR AREA AFT 12Z...WILL HAVE -SHRA/TSRA MUCH OF THE AREA               
UNTIL DRIER AIR MOVES IN FROM THE SW. NRN SITES WILL BE STUCK IN THE            
IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS LONGER WITH WRAP AROUND SHRA INTO FRI EVENING.              
&&                                                                              
.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE                                         
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHORT TERM...JOHNSON                                                            
LONG TERM...JUNGBLUTH                                                           
AVIATION...MOYER                                                                
</pre> ia                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS                                            
1120 PM MDT THU MAY 1 2008                                                      
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
141 PM MDT THU MAY 1 2008                                                       
ANALYSIS OF WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES NEGATIVELY-TILTED                     
LONGWAVE TROUGH STRETCHING FROM THE OK/TX PANHANDLE NORTHWESTWARD               
INTO BRITISH COLUMBIA. SEVERAL PIECES OF ENERGY WERE MOVING                     
THROUGH THE MEAN FLOW INCLUDING ONE OVER COLORADO CURRENTLY                     
IMPACTING WEATHER ACROSS THE GLD CWA.                                           
FOLTZ                                                                           
&&                                                                              
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
141 PM MDT THU MAY 1 2008                                                       
MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS IN THE SHORT-TERM REVOLVE AROUND PRECIP                  
CHANCES AND TYPE THROUGH TOMORROW AS WELL AS STRONG WINDS FROM                  
FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.                                            
MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT ON THE EVOLUTION OF DEVELOPING                   
SURFACE LOW OVER SOUTHWEST KANSAS. AS THIS FEATURE CONTINUES TO                 
DEEPEN AND SLIDE NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE MIDDLE MISSOURI RIVER                   
VALLEY BY FRIDAY MORNING...NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL RAPIDLY INCREASE            
TO AT LEAST ADVISORY CRITERIA. LOCAL WIND GUST TOOL AND AVERAGE                 
OF GUIDANCE WOULD INDICATE HIGH WIND WARNING CRITERIA WILL BE MET               
OVER AT LEAST THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CWA. WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA               
LOOKS TO BE A CERTAINTY OVER THE ENTIRE CWA. AS A RESULT...HAVE                 
HOISTED A HIGH WIND WATCH FROM 15Z FRIDAY THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY.                 
WILL BRIEF EVENING SHIFT AND ALLOW THEM TO FINE TUNE THE HIGHLIGHT              
BASED ON LATER GUIDANCE.                                                        
IN TERMS OF PRECIPITATION IN THE SHORT-TERM...COULD SEE A MIXED BAG             
ACROSS THE CWA WITH PORTIONS OF EASTERN COLORADO AND SOUTHWESTERN               
NEBRASKA RECEIVING ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL WHILE PRECIP LOOKS TO REMAIN           
LIQUID OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN HALF OF THE CWA. A MIX OF RAIN AND                 
SNOW ARE POSSIBLE FROM MCCOOK THROUGH GOODLAND...ESPECIALLY FRIDAY              
MORNING. 12Z/01 RUC13 PUTS DOWN AS MUCH AS 4 TO 6 INCHES OVER                   
WESTERN KIT CARSON AND MUCH OF YUMA COUNTIES THROUGH. IF THIS SOLUTION          
WERE TO VERIFY...BLIZZARD CONDITIONS COULD BE MET GIVEN ANTICIPATED             
WIND SPEEDS. NAM/GFS ARE LOWER BUT STILL ACCUMULATE A FEW INCHES                
BEFORE TAPERING OFF FRIDAY NIGHT.                                               
BY SATURDAY...CLOSED H5 LOW TRANSITIONS EASTWARD INTO THE WESTERN               
GREAT LAKES WITH WEAK RIDGING BUILDING INTO THE CWA. WITH                       
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW CONTINUING AND H85 TEMPS OF 5-10C...MAX TEMPS                
WILL STRUGGLE TO GET OUT OF THE MID 50S. SHOULD SEE TEMPS MAKE A                
QUICK REBOUND ON SUNDAY AS RIDGE AXIS IS RIGHT ON TOP OF THE CWA.               
H85 TEMPS WARM TO NEAR 20C RESULTING IN SURFACE TEMPS IN THE LOW                
TO MID 70S.                                                                     
FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD OF MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...ESSENTIALLY                
FOLLOWED A BLEND OF THE ECMWF AND THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN. TROUGH                 
STARTS TO DIG SOUTHWARD OVER THE WESTERN CONUS BY MONDAY AFTERNOON              
WITH A LEAD SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHING THE AREA. BROUGHT IN THE               
MENTION OF THUNDER STARTING MONDAY NIGHT GIVEN INSTABILITY AND                  
THERMAL PROFILES. CLOSED H5 LOW PROGGED TO EJECT INTO THE CENTRAL               
HIGH PLAINS ON TUESDAY. HAVE CARRIED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS THROUGH                 
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS IT APPEARS SYSTEM WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO               
SEE MOISTURE WRAP AROUND THE BACK SIDE. TEMPS WILL START TO                     
REBOUND ON THURSDAY WITH H85 TEMPS WARMING BACK TO AROUND 15C.                  
FOLTZ                                                                           
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
1108 PM MDT THU MAY 1 2008                                                      
FOR THE 06Z TAFS...LINE OF SHOWERS FROM KLBF TO KCBK WILL CONTINUE              
TO SLOWLY SLIDE EASTWARD IMPACTING KMCK BY 08Z. UPSTREAM OBS                    
INDICATE MVFR AND LOW VFR CONDITIONS UNDER THE SHOWERS. ONCE THESE              
SHOWERS PASS...CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR THROUGH MOST OF                 
THE DAY...THOUGH MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS COULD BRING BRIEF MVFR                  
CONDITIONS. AFTER 00Z TIME HEIGHT DISPLAYS OF THE GFS INDICATE                  
DETERIORATING CONDITIONS BACK TO MVFR. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BE                  
BREEZY TO VERY WINDY FOR ALL OF THE TAF PERIOD.                                 
SFJ                                                                             
&&                                                                              
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
KS...HIGH WIND WATCH FROM 9 AM MDT /10 AM CDT/ FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY            
     EVENING FOR KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-042.                            
NE...HIGH WIND WATCH FROM 9 AM MDT /10 AM CDT/ FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY            
     EVENING FOR NEZ079>081.                                                    
CO...HIGH WIND WATCH FROM 9 AM MDT FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING FOR            
     COZ090>092.                                                                
&&                                                                              
</pre> ks                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS                                             
1205 AM CDT FRI MAY 2 2008                                                      
.UPDATE...                                                                      
.SHORT TERM...                                                                  
LINE OF STG-SVR TSRA ~30SM WIDE CONTINUES TO MOVE E20MPH WHILE                  
INDIVIDUAL CELLS ARE SPRINTING NE30. AT 1145 PM CDT...THE LINE WAS              
ORIENTED GENERALLY ALONG & JUST E OF THE KS TURNPIKE FROM CENTRAL               
WABAUNSEE COUNTY IN NE KS...TO NEAR SOUTH HAVEN...TO ERN GARFIELD               
COUNTY IN NC OK. REPAINTED POP/WX/QPF GRIDS TO REFLECT MOST RECENT              
RADAR TRENDS AS WELL AS TEMPS & DEWPOINTS.                                      
.AVIATION...                                                                    
06Z TAF ISSUANCE: [KRSL/KSLN/KHUT/KICT/KCNU]                                    
NO DOUBT PRIMARY FOCUS IS ON BEHAVIOR OF ABOVE-MENTIONED TSRA AS                
COLD FRONT PUSHES E/SE ACROSS SE KS THE REST OF THE NIGHT. AS SUCH              
KCNU TO BE WATCHED CLOSELY AS POTENTIAL FOR VSBYS OF 2-3SM (+TSRA)              
CERTAINLY EXISTS THRU ~12Z. SECOND CONCERN IS INCREASING NW WINDS               
THAT`LL SPREAD E ACROSS C & SC KS FROM LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH                
THIS EVENING. SUSTAINED SPEEDS OF 30-35KTS ARE LIKELY ACROSS THESE              
AREAS FROM ~15Z-03Z.                                                            
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 323 PM CDT THU MAY 1 2008/                          
DISCUSSION...                                                                   
MAIN FORECAST CONCERN REVOLVES AROUND SEVERE CHANCES OVERNIGHT.                 
SYNOPSIS:                                                                       
CURRENTLY HAVE A STRONG UPPER WAVE DIVING ACROSS SOUTHERN                       
CO/NORTHERN NM. VIS SATELLITE SHOWING SOME CU DEVELOPING OVER FAR               
WESTERN KS AS THE LEADING EDGE OF COOLER MID LEVEL TEMPS START TO               
OVERSPREAD THE AREA. AT THE SURFACE LOOSE DRY LINE IS SITUATED ALONG            
A EMP TO WLD LINE WITH A SURFACE LOW OVER EASTERN NE AND ANOTHER ONE            
TAKING SHAPE OVER THE OK PANHANDLE WHERE SURFACE PRESSURE FALLS HAVE            
BEEN MAXIMIZED OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF HOURS.                                   
TONIGHT:                                                                        
DRYLINE IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY WORK EAST THROUGH 00Z FRI AS STRONG               
SOUTHERLY WINDS CONTINUE TO INCREASE MOISTURE ACROSS SE KS. IT LOOKS            
LIKE THE RUC...GFS AND NAM ARE STILL OVERDOING THE SURFACE DEWPOINTS            
ACROSS SE KS WITH MOST SHOWING BETWEEN 65-68 DEGREES...WITH 62-64               
MORE REALISTIC. AS EXPECTED THE CAP IS CURRENTLY HOLDING STRONG BUT             
WILL START TO ERODE QUICKLY AS THE COOLER MID LEVEL AIR OVERSPREADS             
THE DRYLINE. MODELS ARE STILL BACKING THE SURFACE WINDS AROUND 00Z              
AS PRESSURE FALLS CONTINUE TO INCREASE OVER THE HIGH PLAINS. THE                
IMPORTANT QUESTION FOR THE FIRST PART OF THIS PERIOD IS WHETHER                 
THERE WILL BE ENOUGH CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT/DRYLINE TO INITIATE            
STORMS BEFORE DARK. CURRENT THINKING IS THAT AN HOUR EITHER SIDE                
OF 00Z WOULD BE THE MOST LIKELY TIME FOR STORMS TO DEVELOP PRIOR TO             
DARK. ONE DIFFERENCE WITH THE LATEST MODEL RUNS AND WHAT IS                     
OCCURRING...IS THAT THE SURFACE BOUNDARY IS ORIENTED MORE NE TO SW              
WHICH MEANS THAT IT WILL BE EASIER TO GET CONVERGENCE ALONG THE                 
BOUNDARY SINCE BACKED WINDS WILL NOT BE NEEDED. OBVIOUSLY ANY STORMS            
THAT FIRE BEFORE DARK WILL QUICKLY BECOME SEVERE.                               
MODELS CONTINUE TO BACK THE DRYLINE WEST AFTER 00Z AS THE SURFACE               
LOW TRACKS INTO NORTH CENTRAL OK. IF STORMS DO NOT DEVELOP BEFORE               
DARK...THEY WILL LIKELY DEVELOP AFTER 03Z AS THE SYNOPTIC BOUNDARY              
CATCHES UP WITH THE DRYLINE WHICH WILL ALSO COINCIDES WITH THE                  
BETTER UPPER DYNAMICS GETTING INTO THE AREA. THE STORMS AFTER DARK              
WILL BE MORE LINEAR IN NATURE BUT WILL STILL HAVE A GOOD CHANCE AT              
PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.                                        
FRI-SUN:                                                                        
BY 18Z FRI THE UPPER LOW WILL BE LOCATED OVER SOUTH CENTRAL NE/NORTH            
CENTRAL NE. THIS WILL PLACE MOST OF NORTHERN KS IN A PRIME AREA FOR             
HIGH NW WINDS AND CURRENTLY HAVE HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT A WIND                    
ADVISORY WILL BE NEEDED FOR OUR CENTRAL KS COUNTIES FRI AFTERNOON.              
HOWEVER AFTER COORDINATING WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES...FEEL IT WOULD             
BE CONFUSING GOING WITH AN NPW NOW...CONSIDERING DDC HAS A WIND                 
ADVISORY OUT FOR EARLY THIS EVENING WITH ADDITIONAL HEADLINES LIKELY            
OVERNIGHT. THEREFORE WILL BRIEF THE MIDNIGHT SHIFT ON THE SITUATION             
AND LET THEM ISSUE. CONTINUED WITH SHOWERS OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF            
THE FORECAST AREA FOR FRI INTO FRI NIGHT GIVEN THE PROXIMITY TO THE             
UPPER LOW. HOWEVER NOT EXPECTING ANYTHING TOO WIDESPREAD.                       
THE MAIN WEATHER STORY OVER THE WEEKEND WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE                 
UNSEASONABLY COOL MORNING TEMPERATURES WITH 30S LIKELY FOR THE                  
NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA FOR BOTH SAT AND SUN MORNING AS              
THE UPPER WAVE PUSHES INTO THE OHIO VALLEY.                                     
MON-THU:                                                                        
DID NOT MAKE TOO MANY CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST THROUGH THESE               
PERIODS. BOTH ECMWF AND GFS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE ANOTHER SHORTWAVE             
TRACKING INTO THE DESERT SW ON MON AND INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS FOR              
WED INTO THU. THIS WILL ALLOW RETURN FLOW TO SETUP ACROSS THE PLAINS            
FOR MON INTO TUE. THERE WILL LIKELY BE TWO MODES OF PRECIP CHANCES              
THROUGH THESE PERIODS...ONE WITH THE INITIAL MOISTURE SURGE AND THE             
OTHER WHEN THE UPPER DYNAMICS LIFT OUT. FOR NOW WILL NOT GET TOO                
CUTE AND WILL INCREASE POPS SLOWLY FROM MON NIGHT INTO WED.                     
LAWSON                                                                          
AVIATION...18Z TAF ISSUANCE                                                     
THE MAIN CONCERN WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE WILL BE THE POSITION                
OF THE FRONT THIS EVENING AND WHERE THE BEST CHANCES OF CONVECTION              
WILL TAKE PLACE. LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS WAS SHOWING THE SURFACE                
FLOW BEGINNING TO VEER OUT ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST                   
KANSAS AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY BEGINS TO STALL OUT ALONG AND EAST               
OF THE I-35 CORRIDOR. THIS BOUNDARY MAY SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR AN                 
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO LATE THIS AFTERNOON...BUT IT APPEARS               
LIKE THE BEST SHOT FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE WHEN THE UPPER LEVEL               
SUPPORT MOVES THROUGH THIS EVENING AND HELPS IGNITE THE FRONT                   
MAINLY ALONG AND EAST OF THE KANSAS TURNPIKE TONIGHT.                           
WE ARE ALSO PLANNING ON ISSUING A WIND ADVISORY THIS AFTERNOON FOR              
AREAS ALONG AND EAST OF THE KANSAS TURNPIKE.                                    
COX                                                                             
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
WICHITA-KICT    50  63  39  63 /  70  10  10  10                                
HUTCHINSON      46  61  38  63 /  50  20  20   0                                
NEWTON          49  63  38  62 /  70  10  20  10                                
ELDORADO        51  65  39  62 /  80  10  10  10                                
WINFIELD-KWLD   51  66  39  64 /  80  10  10  10                                
RUSSELL         40  56  35  60 /  30  40  30  10                                
GREAT BEND      41  56  36  63 /  30  30  20   0                                
SALINA          47  58  35  62 /  40  30  30  10                                
MCPHERSON       47  60  37  62 /  50  20  20  10                                
COFFEYVILLE     58  69  42  63 /  80  20  10  10                                
CHANUTE         56  67  41  59 /  80  20  20  10                                
IOLA            56  67  41  59 /  80  20  20  10                                
PARSONS-KPPF    57  69  42  61 /  80  20  10  10                                
&&                                                                              
.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
NONE.                                                                           
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</pre> ks                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY                                             
934 PM EDT SAT MAY 3 2008                                                       
.SHORT TERM.../THE REST OF TONIGHT/...UPDATED                                   
A FEW MINOR CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE FORECAST FOR THE REST OF                   
TONIGHT. LATEST SURFACE OBS INDICATE THAT HOURLY TEMPERATURES HAVE A            
BEEN JUST SLIGHTLY SLOWER TO FALL THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST...SO                 
ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS WITH A GENERAL DEGREE OR              
TWO INCREASE IN HOURLY TEMPERATURES THROUGH 12Z. ALSO INCREASED                 
OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES BY A DEGREE OR TWO ACROSS THE BOARD PER              
THE AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE OB TRENDS AND TOWARD THE 18Z SLIGHTLY                
WARMER MAVMOS NUMBERS. ALSO REMOVED MENTION OF PRECIPITATION FROM THE           
OVERNIGHT PERIOD AS CURRENT RADAR IMAGERY INDICATES THAT ANY REMAIN             
ISOLATED RAIN SHOWERS WILL HAVE MOVED OUT OF EASTERN KENTUCKY BY 3Z.            
THERE WAS ALSO A BIT OF EVENING AND OTHER OUTDATED WORDING IN THE               
FIRST PERIOD OF THE ZONES...SO ALL OF THAT WAS REMOVED AS WELL AND              
REPLACED WITH FRESH WORDING. ALSO RERAN THE WEATHER AND QPF FORECASTS           
TO REFLECT THE CHANGES MADE TO OVERNIGHT PRECIPITATION CHANCES. WINDS           
WILL STAY STRONG AND PERSISTENT ENOUGH TO KEEP FOG OUT OF THE                   
PICTURE TONIGHT. REST OF FORECAST WAS IN GOOD SHAPE. UPDATED ZONES              
ALREADY OUT.                                                                    
THE PREVIOUS SHORT TERM FORECAST DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...                          
/THE REST OF TODAY/                                                             
THE OCCLUDED FRONT HAS COMPLETED IT/S TRACK THROUGH EASTERN KENTUCKY.           
HOWEVER...SURFACE TROUGH STILL HAS TO MAKE IT THROUGH THE AREA. THIS            
SFC BOUNDARY IS CURRENT SLIDING THROUGH SOUTHEASTERN INDIANA AND WEST           
CENTRAL KENTUCKY. A BAND OF SHOWERS...AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE                    
DEVELOPED AHEAD OF THIS BOUNDARY WITH THE AID OF SURFACE HEATING IN A           
CLEARING SLOT BETWEEN THE TWO FEATURES. UNFORTUNATELY...SHORT TERM              
MODELS DO NOT HAVE A VERY GOOD HANDLE ON THE WEATHER ASSOCIATED WITH            
THE TROUGH. SO FORECAST CHALLENGE WILL FOCUS ON THE POTENTIAL FOR               
WEATHER AS THE SURFACE TROUGH ENTERS EASTERN KENTUCKY LATE LATE THIS            
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. MORE SPECIFICALLY...WILL ONGOING SHOWER            
ACTIVITY CONTINUE TO DEVELOP SOUTHWARD ALONG THE TROUGH AS IT MOVES             
INTO EASTERN KENTUCKY.                                                          
GOES SOUNDING DATA INDICATES A WEAK MID LEVEL CAP IN PLACE AHEAD OF             
THE LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN SE INDIANA...BECOMING                  
SLIGHTLY STRONGER FURTHER SOUTH IN SOUTH CENTRAL KENTUCKY. SATELLITE            
LOOP SHOWS SOME PARTIAL CLEARING BEGINNING TO WORK IT/S WAY INTO                
EASTERN KENTUCKY AS WELL. RUC MESOANALYSIS SEEMS TO HAVE PICKED UP ON           
THE PARTIAL CLEARING AS IT SHOWS AN INCREASE IN SFC BASED                       
INSTABILITY...FROM 0 TO -3 LATE THIS AFTERNOON AS WELL AS AN INCREASE           
IN CAPE...FROM 50 TO 400 J/KG. WHILE NOT IMPRESSIVE...THIS SHOULD BE            
ENOUGH TO GENERATE SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY AN ISOLATED              
THUNDERSHOWER OR TWO AS THE TROUGH MOVES INTO THE AREA...DESPITE THE            
WEAK CAP. REGIONAL RADAR LOOP SEEMS TO CONFIRM THIS SCENARIO AS THERE           
IS A GRADUAL EXPANSION OF SHOWERS BUILDING TO THE SOUTH.                        
WILL CARRY A 20 TO 40 POP FOR LATE THIS AFTERNOON...AND EARLY                   
EVENING TO COVER ANY POSSIBLE DEVELOPMENT. HIGHER POPS WILL BE                  
CARRIED IN THE NORTH...WHILE LOWEST POPS ARE RESTRICTED TO THE                  
SOUTHWEST. THE THREAT OF PRECIP SHOULD END THIS EVENING WITH LOSS OF            
SFC HEATING.                                                                    
DRY WEATHER WITH SEASONABLE TEMPS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE REMAINDER            
OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. MONDAY MORNING WILL BE CHILLY IN THE                  
VALLEYS AND AGAIN TUESDAY MORNING IN THE EAST. MOST LIKELY NIGHT FOR            
A STRONG RIDGE VALLEY SPLIT WILL BE MONDAY NIGHT AS A WEAK SE                   
GRADIENT WIND BEGINS TO DEVELOP ON THE WEST SIDE OF HIGH PRESSURE.              
OTHERWISE...USED A BLEND OF MOS GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS. CLOSER TO THE               
COOLER MET FOR MONDAY UNDER NORTHERLY FLOW...AND CLOSER TO THE WARMER           
MAV ON TUESDAY UNDER SOUTHERLY FLOW.                                            
.LONG TERM.../TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/                                         
THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS FOR THE LONG TERM PERIOD.              
GENERALLY SIDED CLOSER TO THE ECMWF AND HPC MANUAL PROGS THROUGH THE            
PERIOD. THE THE EARLY PORTION OF THE FORECAST PERIOD SHOULD BE                  
DRY...AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHEAST CONUS KEEPS US DRY. BY                
WEDNESDAY...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE               
SOUTHERN PLAINS...WITH ANOTHER LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION. A               
COLD FRONT IN BETWEEN THE LOWS WILL DROP SOUTH DURING THE                       
DAY...INCREASING THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE FRONT            
SHOULD STALL OUT AND BEGIN TO MOVE BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT                   
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW OVER THE PLAINS MOVES EAST. THIS LOW                 
SHOULD THEN MOVE OVER KENTUCKY LATE THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT.                
THIS WILL KEEP THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AREA.            
THE LOW SHOULD BE EXITING OFF TO THE EAST FRIDAY...BUT SHOULD STILL             
BE CLOSE ENOUGH TO KEEP A CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE AREA. DRY WEATHER            
IS EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN                
OVER THE AREA.                                                                  
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION.../00Z TO 24Z/                                                        
THE COLD/OCCLUDED FRONT IS FINALLY CROSSING EAST KENTUCKY AND WITH IT           
A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POPPING UP...MAINLY EAST OF JKL. CIG                 
HEIGHTS EVEN WITH THE SHOWERS ARE STILL RUNNING 6 TO 8K FEET ABOVE              
GROUND LEVEL. AS A RESULT...THE AVIATION CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN VFR             
THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. THE CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT WILL           
CLEAR OUT LATE THIS EVENING WHILE LOWER ONES OVER SOUTHERN INDIANA              
PIVOT BY JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE CWA LATER TONIGHT. WITH MOSTLY CLEAR          
SKIES...THE INPUT OF SOME MOISTURE FROM SHOWERS THIS MORNING AND                
WINDS SETTLING DOWN TOWARD MIDNIGHT...LIGHT FOG COULD DEVELOP IN THE            
VALLEYS TOWARDS DAWN. HAVE LEFT A TEMPO GROUP IN FOR THIS AT SME AND            
LOZ. DURING THE DAY SUNDAY...CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN VFR WITH JUST               
SOME SCATTED CLOUDS AT 4-5K FEET AROUND. WINDS WILL BE STRONGEST AND            
GUSTIEST OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS ALONG AND BEHIND THE FRONT...THEN              
THEY WILL COME AROUND TO THE NORTH OVERNIGHT SETTLING DOWN INTO THE             
LIGHT CATEGORY BY MIDNIGHT. THE WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT...GENERALLY             
FROM THE NORTH FOR SUNDAY.                                                      
&&                                                                              
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                        
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHORT TERM...RAY/AR                                                             
LONG TERM....WJM                                                                
AVIATION...GREIF                                                                
</pre> ky                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY                                             
820 PM EDT SAT MAY 3 2008                                                       
.SHORT TERM.../THE REST OF TODAY/                                               
THE OCCLUDED FRONT HAS COMPLETED IT/S TRACK THROUGH EASTERN KENTUCKY.           
HOWEVER...SURFACE TROUGH STILL HAS TO MAKE IT THROUGH THE AREA. THIS            
SFC BOUNDARY IS CURRENT SLIDING THROUGH SOUTHEASTERN INDIANA AND WEST           
CENTRAL KENTUCKY. A BAND OF SHOWERS...AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE                    
DEVELOPED AHEAD OF THIS BOUNDARY WITH THE AID OF SURFACE HEATING IN A           
CLEARING SLOT BETWEEN THE TWO FEATURES. UNFORTUNATELY...SHORT TERM              
MODELS DO NOT HAVE A VERY GOOD HANDLE ON THE WEATHER ASSOCIATED WITH            
THE TROUGH. SO FORECAST CHALLENGE WILL FOCUS ON THE POTENTIAL FOR               
WEATHER AS THE SURFACE TROUGH ENTERS EASTERN KENTUCKY LATE LATE THIS            
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. MORE SPECIFICALLY...WILL ONGOING SHOWER            
ACTIVITY CONTINUE TO DEVELOP SOUTHWARD ALONG THE TROUGH AS IT MOVES             
INTO EASTERN KENTUCKY.                                                          
GOES SOUNDING DATA INDICATES A WEAK MID LEVEL CAP IN PLACE AHEAD OF             
THE LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN SE INDIANA...BECOMING                  
SLIGHTLY STRONGER FURTHER SOUTH IN SOUTH CENTRAL KENTUCKY. SATELLITE            
LOOP SHOWS SOME PARTIAL CLEARING BEGINNING TO WORK IT/S WAY INTO                
EASTERN KENTUCKY AS WELL. RUC MESOANALYSIS SEEMS TO HAVE PICKED UP ON           
THE PARTIAL CLEARING AS IT SHOWS AN INCREASE IN SFC BASED                       
INSTABILITY...FROM 0 TO -3 LATE THIS AFTERNOON AS WELL AS AN INCREASE           
IN CAPE...FROM 50 TO 400 J/KG. WHILE NOT IMPRESSIVE...THIS SHOULD BE            
ENOUGH TO GENERATE SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY AN ISOLATED              
THUNDERSHOWER OR TWO AS THE TROUGH MOVES INTO THE AREA...DESPITE THE            
WEAK CAP. REGIONAL RADAR LOOP SEEMS TO CONFIRM THIS SCENARIO AS THERE           
IS A GRADUAL EXPANSION OF SHOWERS BUILDING TO THE SOUTH.                        
WILL CARRY A 20 TO 40 POP FOR LATE THIS AFTERNOON...AND EARLY                   
EVENING TO COVER ANY POSSIBLE DEVELOPMENT. HIGHER POPS WILL BE                  
CARRIED IN THE NORTH...WHILE LOWEST POPS ARE RESTRICTED TO THE                  
SOUTHWEST. THE THREAT OF PRECIP SHOULD END THIS EVENING WITH LOSS OF            
SFC HEATING.                                                                    
DRY WEATHER WITH SEASONABLE TEMPS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE REMAINDER            
OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. MONDAY MORNING WILL BE CHILLY IN THE                  
VALLEYS AND AGAIN TUESDAY MORNING IN THE EAST. MOST LIKELY NIGHT FOR            
A STRONG RIDGE VALLEY SPLIT WILL BE MONDAY NIGHT AS A WEAK SE                   
GRADIENT WIND BEGINS TO DEVELOP ON THE WEST SIDE OF HIGH PRESSURE.              
OTHERWISE...USED A BLEND OF MOS GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS. CLOSER TO THE               
COOLER MET FOR MONDAY UNDER NORTHERLY FLOW...AND CLOSER TO THE WARMER           
MAV ON TUESDAY UNDER SOUTHERLY FLOW.                                            
.LONG TERM.../TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/                                         
THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS FOR THE LONG TERM PERIOD.              
GENERALLY SIDED CLOSER TO THE ECMWF AND HPC MANUAL PROGS THROUGH THE            
PERIOD. THE THE EARLY PORTION OF THE FORECAST PERIOD SHOULD BE                  
DRY...AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHEAST CONUS KEEPS US DRY. BY                
WEDNESDAY...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE               
SOUTHERN PLAINS...WITH ANOTHER LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION. A               
COLD FRONT IN BETWEEN THE LOWS WILL DROP SOUTH DURING THE                       
DAY...INCREASING THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE FRONT            
SHOULD STALL OUT AND BEGIN TO MOVE BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT                   
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW OVER THE PLAINS MOVES EAST. THIS LOW                 
SHOULD THEN MOVE OVER KENTUCKY LATE THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT.                
THIS WILL KEEP THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AREA.            
THE LOW SHOULD BE EXITING OFF TO THE EAST FRIDAY...BUT SHOULD STILL             
BE CLOSE ENOUGH TO KEEP A CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE AREA. DRY WEATHER            
IS EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN                
OVER THE AREA.                                                                  
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION.../00Z TO 24Z/...UPDATED                                              
THE COLD/OCCLUDED FRONT IS FINALLY CROSSING EAST KENTUCKY AND WITH IT           
A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POPPING UP...MAINLY EAST OF JKL. CIG                 
HEIGHTS EVEN WITH THE SHOWERS ARE STILL RUNNING 6 TO 8K FEET ABOVE              
GROUND LEVEL. AS A RESULT...THE AVIATION CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN VFR             
THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. THE CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT WILL           
CLEAR OUT LATE THIS EVENING WHILE LOWER ONES OVER SOUTHERN INDIANA              
PIVOT BY JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE CWA LATER TONIGHT. WITH MOSTLY CLEAR          
SKIES...THE INPUT OF SOME MOISTURE FROM SHOWERS THIS MORNING AND                
WINDS SETTLING DOWN TOWARD MIDNIGHT...LIGHT FOG COULD DEVELOP IN THE            
VALLEYS TOWARDS DAWN. HAVE LEFT A TEMPO GROUP IN FOR THIS AT SME AND            
LOZ. DURING THE DAY SUNDAY...CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN VFR WITH JUST               
SOME SCATTED CLOUDS AT 4-5K FEET AROUND. WINDS WILL BE STRONGEST AND            
GUSTIEST OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS ALONG AND BEHIND THE FRONT...THEN              
THEY WILL COME AROUND TO THE NORTH OVERNIGHT SETTLING DOWN INTO THE             
LIGHT CATEGORY BY MIDNIGHT. THE WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT...GENERALLY             
FROM THE NORTH FOR SUNDAY.                                                      
&&                                                                              
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                        
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHORT TERM...RAY                                                                
LONG TERM....WJM                                                                
AVIATION...GREIF                                                                
</pre> ky                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA                                        
713 AM CDT SAT MAY 3 2008                                                       
.UPDATE...HAVE MADE A FEW ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS IN GRIDS/ZONES BASED              
ON CURRENT TRENDS. ZONE UPDATE ALREADY OUT.                                     
&&                                                                              
MARCOTTE                                                                        
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 422 AM CDT SAT MAY 3 2008/                          
UPDATE...TORNADO WATCH NOW IN EFFECT FOR ACADIANA. UPDATED ZONES                
AND WCN ALREADY OUT.                                                            
MARCOTTE                                                                        
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 338 AM CDT SAT MAY 3 2008/                           
DISCUSSION...COLD FRONT HAS ENTERED THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE                 
FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS MORNING WITH BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM NEAR              
ALEXANDRIA TO THE DERIDDER AREA...AND FURTHER SOUTHWEST INTO                    
SOUTHEAST TEXAS. RADAR SHOWING DEVELOPING ACTIVITY OVER SOUTHEAST               
TEXAS...BUT BULK OF CONVECTION AND STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS OVER                  
CENTRAL LOUISIANA INCLUDING THE ALEXANDRIA AREA.                                
FRONT WITH THUNDERSTORMS TO SETTLE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION                  
THROUGH THE DAY. LATEST RUC SUGGESTING BOUNDARY REACHING THE                    
ACADIANA AREA BY EARLY AFTERNOON AND EXTENDING SOUTHWEST INTO THE               
NEAR COASTAL WATERS JUST OFF OF COASTAL SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA AND                 
THE UPPER TEXAS COAST. FRONT EXITS COMPLETELY INTO THE COASTAL                  
WATERS BY LATE AFTERNOON WITH INLAND RAIN CHANCES ENDING.                       
REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND LOOKING DRY AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY EXITS                  
EAST FOLLOWED BY MID LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS.                      
RIDGE TO HOLD OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS THROUGH MIDWEEK MAINTAINING                
AN OVERALL DRY PATTERN. HAVE TO MAINTAIN SOME LOW END POPS                      
HOWEVER AS GFS SHOWING THE POSSIBILITY OF A FEW IMPULSES EJECTING               
FROM DEVELOPING SOUTHWEST/OLD MEXICO CUT-OFF LOW AND TEMPORARILY                
BREAKING DOWN RIDGE. LOW EJECTS NORTHEAST INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS               
WEDNESDAY AND ON TO THE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE                  
WEEK WITH HIGH PRESSURE BECOMING REESTABLISHED OVER THE PLAINS.                 
THUS CARRYING NO RAIN CHANCES AFTER MID-WEEK.                                   
AVIATION...MVFR CIGS EXPECTED TO PERSIST UNTIL FRONT CROSSES REGION             
THROUGH THE MORNING. WENT PREVAILING THUNDER AT AEX FOR ANOTHER HOUR            
OR SO AS LINE CROSSES THAT AREA. EXPECT SCATTERED CONVECTION TO                 
POSSIBLY AFFECT KLFT/KARA THROUGH ABOUT 11Z. KBPT/KLCH LOOKING A                
LITTLE BETTER AS FAR AS THUNDER GOES FOR THE TIME BEING. VFR                    
CONDITIONS AND DECENT NWRLY WINDS EXPECTED FOR LATER THIS MORNING               
AND THE AFTERNOON.                                                              
25                                                                              
MARINE...A COLD FRONT WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL ADVANCE               
ACROSS THE NORTHWEST GULF THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A BRIEF MODERATE          
OFFSHORE FLOW WILL DEVELOP IN ITS WAKE                                          
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
KLCH  83  60  83  64 /  30   0  10  10                                          
KBPT  84  60  81  64 /  30   0  10  10                                          
KAEX  79  55  81  58 /  10   0  10  10                                          
KLFT  81  59  82  61 /  50   0  10  10                                          
&&                                                                              
.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
LA...TORNADO WATCH UNTIL 11 AM SATURDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:                
     ACADIA...IBERIA...LAFAYETTE...LOWER ST. MARTIN...ST.                       
     LANDRY...ST. MARY...UPPER ST. MARTIN...AND VERMILION.                      
TX...NONE.                                                                      
GM...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</pre> la                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA                                        
422 AM CDT SAT MAY 3 2008                                                       
.UPDATE...TORNADO WATCH NOW IN EFFECT FOR ACADIANA. UPDATED ZONES               
AND WCN ALREADY OUT.                                                            
&&                                                                              
MARCOTTE                                                                        
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 338 AM CDT SAT MAY 3 2008/                          
DISCUSSION...COLD FRONT HAS ENTERED THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE                 
FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS MORNING WITH BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM NEAR              
ALEXANDRIA TO THE DERIDDER AREA...AND FURTHER SOUTHWEST INTO                    
SOUTHEAST TEXAS. RADAR SHOWING DEVELOPING ACTIVITY OVER SOUTHEAST               
TEXAS...BUT BULK OF CONVECTION AND STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS OVER                  
CENTRAL LOUISIANA INCLUDING THE ALEXANDRIA AREA.                                
FRONT WITH THUNDERSTORMS TO SETTLE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION                  
THROUGH THE DAY. LATEST RUC SUGGESTING BOUNDARY REACHING THE                    
ACADIANA AREA BY EARLY AFTERNOON AND EXTENDING SOUTHWEST INTO THE               
NEAR COASTAL WATERS JUST OFF OF COASTAL SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA AND                 
THE UPPER TEXAS COAST. FRONT EXITS COMPLETELY INTO THE COASTAL                  
WATERS BY LATE AFTERNOON WITH INLAND RAIN CHANCES ENDING.                       
REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND LOOKING DRY AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY EXITS                  
EAST FOLLOWED BY MID LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS.                      
RIDGE TO HOLD OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS THROUGH MIDWEEK MAINTAINING                
AN OVERALL DRY PATTERN. HAVE TO MAINTAIN SOME LOW END POPS                      
HOWEVER AS GFS SHOWING THE POSSIBILITY OF A FEW IMPULSES EJECTING               
FROM DEVELOPING SOUTHWEST/OLD MEXICO CUT-OFF LOW AND TEMPORARILY                
BREAKING DOWN RIDGE. LOW EJECTS NORTHEAST INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS               
WEDNESDAY AND ON TO THE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE                  
WEEK WITH HIGH PRESSURE BECOMING REESTABLISHED OVER THE PLAINS.                 
THUS CARRYING NO RAIN CHANCES AFTER MID-WEEK.                                   
AVIATION...MVFR CIGS EXPECTED TO PERSIST UNTIL FRONT CROSSES REGION             
THROUGH THE MORNING. WENT PREVAILING THUNDER AT AEX FOR ANOTHER HOUR            
OR SO AS LINE CROSSES THAT AREA. EXPECT SCATTERED CONVECTION TO                 
POSSIBLY AFFECT KLFT/KARA THROUGH ABOUT 11Z. KBPT/KLCH LOOKING A                
LITTLE BETTER AS FAR AS THUNDER GOES FOR THE TIME BEING. VFR                    
CONDITIONS AND DECENT NWRLY WINDS EXPECTED FOR LATER THIS MORNING               
AND THE AFTERNOON.                                                              
25                                                                              
MARINE...A COLD FRONT WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL ADVANCE               
ACROSS THE NORTHWEST GULF THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A BRIEF MODERATE          
OFFSHORE FLOW WILL DEVELOP IN ITS WAKE                                          
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
KLCH  83  60  83  64 /  30   0  10  10                                          
KBPT  84  60  81  64 /  30   0  10  10                                          
KAEX  79  55  81  58 /  10   0  10  10                                          
KLFT  81  59  82  61 /  50   0  10  10                                          
&&                                                                              
.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
LA...TORNADO WATCH UNTIL 11 AM SATURDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:                
     ACADIA...IBERIA...LAFAYETTE...LOWER ST. MARTIN...ST.                       
     LANDRY...ST. MARY...UPPER ST. MARTIN...AND VERMILION.                      
TX...NONE.                                                                      
GM...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</pre> la                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA                                        
338 AM CDT SAT MAY 3 2008                                                       
.DISCUSSION...COLD FRONT HAS ENTERED THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE                
FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS MORNING WITH BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM NEAR              
ALEXANDRIA TO THE DERIDDER AREA...AND FURTHER SOUTHWEST INTO                    
SOUTHEAST TEXAS. RADAR SHOWING DEVELOPING ACTIVITY OVER SOUTHEAST               
TEXAS...BUT BULK OF CONVECTION AND STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS OVER                  
CENTRAL LOUISIANA INCLUDING THE ALEXANDRIA AREA.                                
FRONT WITH THUNDERSTORMS TO SETTLE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION                  
THROUGH THE DAY. LATEST RUC SUGGESTING BOUNDARY REACHING THE                    
ACADIANA AREA BY EARLY AFTERNOON AND EXTENDING SOUTHWEST INTO THE               
NEAR COASTAL WATERS JUST OFF OF COASTAL SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA AND                 
THE UPPER TEXAS COAST. FRONT EXITS COMPLETELY INTO THE COASTAL                  
WATERS BY LATE AFTERNOON WITH INLAND RAIN CHANCES ENDING.                       
REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND LOOKING DRY AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY EXITS                  
EAST FOLLOWED BY MID LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS.                      
RIDGE TO HOLD OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS THROUGH MIDWEEK MAINTAINING                
AN OVERALL DRY PATTERN. HAVE TO MAINTAIN SOME LOW END POPS                      
HOWEVER AS GFS SHOWING THE POSSIBILITY OF A FEW IMPULSES EJECTING               
FROM DEVELOPING SOUTHWEST/OLD MEXICO CUT-OFF LOW AND TEMPORARILY                
BREAKING DOWN RIDGE. LOW EJECTS NORTHEAST INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS               
WEDNESDAY AND ON TO THE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE                  
WEEK WITH HIGH PRESSURE BECOMING REESTABLISHED OVER THE PLAINS.                 
THUS CARRYING NO RAIN CHANCES AFTER MID-WEEK.                                   
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...MVFR CIGS EXPECTED TO PERSIST UNTIL FRONT CROSSES REGION            
THROUGH THE MORNING. WENT PREVAILING THUNDER AT AEX FOR ANOTHER HOUR            
OR SO AS LINE CROSSES THAT AREA. EXPECT SCATTERED CONVECTION TO                 
POSSIBLY AFFECT KLFT/KARA THROUGH ABOUT 11Z. KBPT/KLCH LOOKING A                
LITTLE BETTER AS FAR AS THUNDER GOES FOR THE TIME BEING. VFR                    
CONDITIONS AND DECENT NWRLY WINDS EXPECTED FOR LATER THIS MORNING               
AND THE AFTERNOON.                                                              
25                                                                              
&&                                                                              
.MARINE...A COLD FRONT WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL ADVANCE              
ACROSS THE NORTHWEST GULF THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A BRIEF MODERATE          
OFFSHORE FLOW WILL DEVELOP IN ITS WAKE                                          
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
KLCH  83  60  83  64 /  30   0  10  10                                          
KBPT  84  60  81  64 /  30   0  10  10                                          
KAEX  79  55  81  58 /  10   0  10  10                                          
KLFT  81  59  82  61 /  50   0  10  10                                          
&&                                                                              
.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
LA...NONE.                                                                      
TX...NONE.                                                                      
GM...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</pre> la                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA                                          
459 AM CDT FRI MAY 2 2008                                                       
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
A SHARP COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO MAKE ITS WAY ACROSS CENTRAL AND                 
EASTERN OK THIS MORNING...AND IS EXPECTED TO ENTER MCCURTAIN AND                
RED RIVER COUNTIES BY AROUND 9 AM. THE TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT                  
ACROSS THE REGION...ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO THE              
NORTH...CONTINUES TO KEEP SURFACE WINDS GUSTING AROUND 25                       
MPH...ESPECIALLY ACROSS EASTERN TEXAS. WINDS WILL PICK UP AGAIN                 
AREAWIDE AFTER SUNRISE...AND WITH THAT HAVE DECIDED TO ISSUE A                  
LAKE WIND ADVISORY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. BUT THE MAIN CHALLENGE                
FOR LATER THIS MORNING WILL BE THE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ALONG               
THE FRONT. CURRENTLY...MUCH OF THE FOUR STATE REGION IS UNDER THE               
INFLUENCE OF A CAPPING INVERSION...WHICH HAS PREVENTED CONVECTION               
FROM BEING SUSTAINED ALONG THE RED RIVER VALLEY AS INDICATED BY                 
RADAR. HOWEVER...RUC MODEL DATA INDICATES THAT THIS CAP WILL ERODE              
QUICKLY DURING THE LATE MORNING...WHICH IS EXPECTED TO LEAD TO MORE             
WIDESPREAD CONVECTION FOR THE WESTERN HALF OF THE REGION DURING                 
THE AFTERNOON. SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATED LITTLE UPPER CLOUD                   
COVER THIS MORNING TO PREVENT SURFACE HEATING...AND WITH CAPES IN               
EXCESS OF 2000J/KG AHEAD OF THE FRONT...EXPECT SOME THUNDERSTORMS               
TO BE SEVERE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH LARGE HAIL AND               
DAMAGING WINDS...MAINLY FROM INTERSTATE 20 NORTHWARD TO THE EAST                
OF LONGVIEW TEXAS. /18/                                                         
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
MVFR CONDITIONS ARE BEING OBSERVED THIS MORNING...AS CEILINGS ARE               
RUNNING BETWEEN 1500 AND 2000 FT. THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH              
THE REST OF THE MORNING...AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN                  
ABUNDANCE TODAY. MODELS ARE AGGRESSIVELY PROGRESSING A FRONT TOWARD             
THE AREA THIS MORNING...AND WITH DECENT MOISTURE...AND INSTABILITY              
TEMPO TSRA MAY HAVE TO BE MENTIONED IN THE FIRST 6 HRS OF MY 12Z                
TAFS...FOR TXK...TYR...AND POSSIBLY GGG. A STRONG CAP REMAINS IN                
PLACE ACROSS THE AREA...SO WE WILL DETERMINE THE TSRA THREAT ON THE             
DEVELOPMENT OF THE SOUTHERN EXTENT OF THE SQUALL LINE CURRENTLY                 
MOVING ACROSS OK. AN ACTIVE AFTERNOON AND EVENING IS EXPECTED TO BE             
ON TAP...AS AN APPROACHING 850 MB TROUGH SHOULD HELP ERODE THE CAP.             
THE MODELS STALL THE FRONT ONCE IT MOVES INTO THE CWA...LEAVING THE             
POTENTIAL FOR TSRA THROUGH THE END OF THE 12Z TAF PERIOD. TSRA WILL             
REMAIN THE MAIN THREAT FOR AVIATION INTEREST TODAY...BUT MVFR TO VFR            
FLIGHT CONDITIONS WILL BE COMMON WITH GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS. /11/               
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
SHV  80  59  76  53 /  70  60  10   0                                           
MLU  83  63  76  54 /  70  80  20   0                                           
DEQ  77  50  71  43 /  60  10  10   0                                           
TXK  78  55  69  49 /  50  20  10   0                                           
ELD  80  57  73  49 /  70  60  10   0                                           
TYR  81  56  73  52 /  40  10  10   0                                           
GGG  80  57  74  52 /  50  30  10   0                                           
LFK  84  64  80  56 /  40  70  20   0                                           
&&                                                                              
.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
AR...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM FRIDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:              
     COLUMBIA...HEMPSTEAD...HOWARD...LAFAYETTE...LITTLE                         
     RIVER...MILLER...NEVADA...SEVIER...AND UNION AR.                           
LA...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM FRIDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:              
     BIENVILLE...BOSSIER...CADDO...CALDWELL...CLAIBORNE...DE                    
     SOTO...GRANT...JACKSON...LA                                                
     SALLE...LINCOLN...NATCHITOCHES...OUACHITA...RED                            
     RIVER...SABINE LA...UNION LA...WEBSTER...AND WINN.                         
OK...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM FRIDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:              
     AND MCCURTAIN.                                                             
TX...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM FRIDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:              
     ANGELINA...BOWIE...CAMP...CASS...CHEROKEE...FRANKLIN...GREGG...HARRISON...M
     RIVER...RUSK...SABINE TX...SAN                                             
     AUGUSTINE...SHELBY...SMITH...TITUS...UPSHUR...AND WOOD.                    
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
18/11                                                                           
</pre> la                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME                                             
534 AM EDT SAT MAY 3 2008                                                       
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM EASTERN QUEBEC PROVINCE                     
ACROSS THE STATE WILL SLOWLY MOVE TO THE EAST TODAY. LOW                        
PRESSURE DEVELOPING ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND WILL BRING                      
INCREASING RAIN CHANCES LATER SUNDAY.                                           
&&                                                                              
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...                                                 
FOG AND LOW CLOUDS HAVE DEVELOPED IN NORTHERN AND EASTERN PORTION               
OF THE FORECAST AREA. WILL INCLUDE MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH LOCALLY                   
DENSE FOG INTO THESE AREAS THIS MORNING BECOMING MOSTLY SUNNY                   
LATER IN MORNING.                                                               
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDS FROM THE EASTERN PORTION OF QUEBEC                 
PROVINCE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. EXPECT THIS SYSTEM TO SLOWLY                 
MOVE TO THE EAST AS LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM WEST. HAVE BEEN                
WATCHING LINE OF CLOUDS AND SHOWERS OVER THE EASTERN PORTION OF                 
NEW BRUNSWICK. CONCERN EARLY WAS THAT THIS SYSTEM WOULD MOVE INTO               
THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA...HOWEVER OBSERVATIONS                 
CONTINUE TO SHOW LITTLE PROGRESS TO THE WEST. PRIMARY FORECASTING               
ISSUE IS ARRIVAL OF CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION FROM LOW PRESSURE                  
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST LATE TONIGHT OR EARLY SUNDAY. OVER LAST               
SEVERAL RUNS THE NAM HAS BEEN MUCH SLOWER THAN THE GFS WITH THIS                
SYSTEM...SO HAVE USED AN 80/20 NAM12/GFS40 BLEND TO MOVE                        
CLOUDS/POPS IN SUNDAY. FOR WIND HAVE USED GMOS. PREVIOUS                        
TEMPERATURE AND DEW POINT FORECAST FOR LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT                  
STILL LOOKS REASONABLE SO HAVE NOT MADE ANY CHANGES. WILL CONTINUE              
TO UPDATE AND MESH CURRENT OBSERVATIONS WITH FORECAST.                          
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...                                    
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE TO THE EAST SUNDAY...WHILE A FRONTAL                    
BOUNDARY APPROACHES FROM THE WEST AND LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG               
THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST. CLOUD COVER WILL INCREASE ACROSS                
THE REGION EARLY SUNDAY...WITH INCREASING CHANCES OF RAIN DURING                
THE AFTERNOON. THE BEST CHANCE OF RAIN SUNDAY AFTERNOON WILL BE                 
ACROSS DOWNEAST AREAS...NEARER THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND LOW. THE                
LOW AND FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BOTH SLOWLY MOVE EAST SUNDAY                      
NIGHT...WITH THEIR MOVEMENT BEING SLOWED DUE TO BLOCKING HIGH                   
PRESSURE TO THE EAST. THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION SUNDAY NIGHT WILL              
FALL ACROSS DOWNEAST AREAS. THE LOW AND FRONT WILL CONTINUE THEIR               
SLOW EASTWARD DRIFT MONDAY...KEEPING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS                 
THE REGION MOST NUMEROUS ACROSS DOWNEAST AREAS. HIGH PRESSURE                   
BUILDING EAST WILL BRING DECREASING CLOUDINESS ACROSS NORTHERN                  
AREAS MONDAY NIGHT. SHOWERS COULD LINGER DOWNEAST MONDAY                        
EVENING...WITH PARTLY/MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES OVERNIGHT. HIGH                       
TEMPERATURES SUNDAY WILL RANGE THROUGH THE 50S ACROSS THE REGION.               
LOW TEMPERATURES SUNDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM AROUND 40 NORTH TO                
THE LOWER 40S DOWNEAST. HIGH TEMPERATURES MONDAY WILL RANGE FROM                
THE MID TO UPPER 50S ACROSS THE REGION. LOW TEMPERATURES MONDAY                 
NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 30S TO AROUND 40 NORTH...TO THE                 
LOWER 40S DOWNEAST.                                                             
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...                                          
HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD BUILD ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY...THEN MOVE                
TO THE EAST WEDNESDAY. UNCERTAINTY THEN EXISTS FOR THURSDAY/FRIDAY              
REGARDING THE TIMING AND LOCATION OF POSSIBLE LOW PRESSURE WHICH                
COULD AFFECT THE REGION. FOR NOW...HAVE INCLUDED A CHANCE OF                    
SHOWERS THURSDAY THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE AT                
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY...WITH NEAR NORMAL               
LEVEL TEMPERATURES THURSDAY/FRIDAY.                                             
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION /10Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...                                   
NEAR TERM: IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN SOME AREAS THIS                  
MORNING...THEN VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED MID MORNING THRU TONIGHT.                
SHORT TERM: VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED EARLY SUNDAY...WITH                     
LOWERING CEILINGS/VISIBILITIES SUNDAY AFTERNOON IN DEVELOPING RAIN.             
REDUCED CEILINGS/VISIBILITIES WILL THEN PERSIST ACROSS THE REGION               
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY MONDAY...WITH IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS.                
CONDITIONS WILL THEN BEGIN TO IMPROVE LATER MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE               
IS EXPECTED TO BUILD ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY THEN MOVE TO THE                 
EAST WEDNESDAY.                                                                 
&&                                                                              
.MARINE...                                                                      
NEAR TERM: FOR WINDS HAVE USED RUC13 FOR FIRST 12 HOURS THEN                    
TRANSITION TO A 50/50 BLEND OF THE NAM12 AND GFS40. HAVE NOT MADE               
ANY MODIFICATIONS TO MODEL WIND GUIDANCE. FOR WAVES: HAVE                       
INITIALIZED WITH WNA. COMBINED SEAS RUNNING AROUND 1 FOOT MOSTLY                
LONG PERIOD WAVE GROUP FROM OUTSIDE LOCAL WATERS. HAVE NOT MADE                 
ANY CHANGES TO WNA.                                                             
SHORT TERM: WINDS/SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO BE BELOW SMALL CRAFT                     
ADVISORY LEVELS SUNDAY. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL SEAS ARE THEN                
POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY NIGHT. WINDS/SEAS ARE THEN                    
EXPECTED TO BE BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY.             
VISIBILITIES WILL BE REDUCED IN RAIN AND SHOWERS FROM SUNDAY                    
AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY EVENING.                                               
&&                                                                              
.HYDROLOGY...                                                                   
HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH                
EARLY SUNDAY...WITH INCREASING RAIN CHANCES LATER SUNDAY. THE BEST              
CHANCES OF RAIN LATER SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE ACROSS                
DOWNEAST AREAS. RIVERS AND STREAMS WILL CONTINUE TO RECEDE THROUGH              
MUCH OF SUNDAY...THOUGH THIS COULD BE SLOWED LATER SUNDAY THROUGH               
SUNDAY NIGHT DUE TO THE ADDITIONAL RAIN PARTICULARLY ACROSS                     
DOWNEAST AREAS. PLEASE REFER TO FLOOD STATEMENTS FOR DETAILS OF                 
FLOODING ON SPECIFIC RIVERS ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL MAINE.                  
&&                                                                              
.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
ME...NONE.                                                                      
MARINE...NONE.                                                                  
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
NEAR TERM...MIGNONE                                                             
SHORT TERM...NORCROSS                                                           
LONG TERM...NORCROSS                                                            
AVIATION...MIGNONE                                                              
MARINE...MIGNONE/NORCROSS                                                       
HYDROLOGY...MIGNONE                                                             
</pre> me                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA                                           
845 PM EDT SAT MAY 3 2008                                                       
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST OVERNIGHT...THEN MOVES OFF THE            
COAST SUNDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION FOR SUNDAY           
NIGHT THROUGH MIDWEEK.                                                          
&&                                                                              
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...                                                  
MID-EVENING ANALYSIS DEPICTS SFC COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE                  
EASTERN GRT LKS RGN SOUTH INTO THE CENTRAL GOM. FARTHER WEST...A                
BROAD AREA OF SFC HIGH PRESSURE WAS NOTED ACRS THE PLAINS.                      
APART FROM MORE SUBSTANTIAL PRECIPITATION WELL TO THE NORTH ALONG               
THE SFC WARM FRNT BNDRY...PRECIPITATION UPSTREAM ASSOCIATED WITH                
THE PREFRNTAL TROF IS LOOKING RATHER SPARSE ATTM. LATEST RUC/WRF                
ONLY BOLSTER THOUGHT THAT INHERITED SCT SHRA WORDING WILL SUFFICE               
THRU MIDNIGHT OVER WESTERN HALF...EXTENDING INTO THE EASTERN HLF                
AFTER MIDNIGHT. LAPS SOUNDINGS NICELY DEPICTING DEARTH OF                       
ATMOSPHERIC INSTABILITY THIS EVENING. GFS AND RUC BOTH SHOW CAPE RISING         
BACK INTO 300-600 J/KG RANGE AFTER MIDNIGHT ACROSS THE FAR SE                   
CWA (WITH MARGINALLY UNSTABLE LI)...BUT SHOWS LTL IN THE WAY OF CAPE/LIFT       
OVER THE REST OF THE AKQ CWA. ACCORDINGLY...WL PULL THUNDER                     
WORDING FOR MOST OF THE AREA AND STICK WITH SCT SHRA WORDING THRU               
LATE TONIGHT. LOWERED QPF EVEN FURTHER FOR OVERNIGHT...GENERALLY                
EXPECTING ON THE ORDER OF A TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS WHERE SHRAS                
OCCUR. POPS DIMINISH FROM W TO E TOWARDS DAWN AS ACTUAL FRONT                   
APPROACHES. LOWS TONIGHT U50S/L60S.                                             
SUNDAY...                                                                       
WL KP LO CHC POPS FOR SE VA/NE NC AS FNT SLOLY EXITS THE CST BY                 
MIDDAY SUNDAY. DRYING FM THE W TAKES OVR DURG COURSE OF DAY...LEADING           
TO P/MSNY CONDS...W/ HI TEMPS FM THE MID 70S TO LWR 80S. EVEN OXB               
(WHR LO CLDS HV HUNG MOST OF TDA) WL HV CLRG DUE TO WNW LLVL FLO.               
CLDNS MAY BE STUBBORN FAR SE CRNR OF FA (XTRM SE VA/CSTL NE NC)                 
INTO MID AFTN HRS.                                                              
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...                             
SFC HI PRES BUILDS E FM THE MS VLY...AND SETTLES OVR FA SUN NGT                 
THROUGH TUE AFTN/EVE...PRVDG DRY/COMFY CONDS. RETURN FLO FM THE                 
SSW TUE NGT...AND XPCTG AT LEAST SOME HIER LVL CLDNS TO SPRD INTO               
RGN FM THE WSW. LO TEMPS SUN NGT/MON NGT 40S INLAND/LWR 50S                     
CST.HI TEMPS MON/TUE MNLY 70S INLAND...UPR 60S CST.                             
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...                                      
MID WEEK FCST BECOMES A BIT UNCERTAIN AS A SERIES OF S/W`S MOVES E              
ACROSS THE NRN STATES WITH THE ASSCTD FRNTL BNDRY PARKING ITSELF                
ACROSS THE MID ATLNTC RGN. MODELS NOW INDCTG FA REMAINS ON WRM SIDE             
OF BNDRY WITH BERMUDA RIDGE REMAINING IN CONTROL WED. HAVE TAKEN OUT            
POPS FOR MOST AREAS WED...JUST LEPT A SLGHT CHC ACROSS NRN CNTYS                
DRNG AFTRN. S/W MOVES E ALLOWING FRNTL BNDRY TO DROP S ACROSS RGN               
THU...SO WILL CONT CHC POPS THEN. SCND AND MORE POTENT S/W CROSSES              
RGN FRI CONTG CHC POPS. WILL GO WITH HPC AND BEGIN TO CLR THINGS OUT            
BY FRI NITE AND SAT AS HIGH PRS BUILDS IN BEHIND DEPARTING S/W.                 
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION /23Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...                                    
WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED ACROSS THE AREA AND EXPECT MAINLY VFR CONDS               
OVERNIGHT EVEN WITH FRNT. SLGHT CHC (25) FOR SHRAS ACROSS NRN AND               
SRN PORTIONS OF AREA WITH SPLIT AREAS OF PRECIP. ONLY MENTION IN                
TAFS IS FOR SBY...ECG MAY SEE SOME SHRAS AFTER 07Z. MVFR CONDS IN               
ANY HEAVIER SHRAS IF THEY DEVELOP. OTHRWISE...VFR CONDS WILL                    
CONTINUE SUN THRU WED...AS HI PRES BLDS INTO THE REGION THEN OFF THE            
CST. A BACKDOOR FRNT CUD AFFECT THE AREA WITH SOME LWR CIGS AND                 
VSBYS ON THU.                                                                   
&&                                                                              
.MARINE...                                                                      
WILL DROP SCA WITH 7 PM UPDATE AS GUSTY WNDS SUBSIDE BLO 20 KT.                 
BKDR BNDRY REARED IT UGLY HEAD FOR A FEW HRS ACROSS MD CSTL WTRS                
AS A WND SHFT INTO E AND NE BROUGHT IN AN AREA OF FOG THAT WAS                  
LURKING OFFSHORE. THE FOG HAS SINCE DSPTD AS BNDRY HAS DRIFTED                  
BACK N AS A WRM FRNT. CRNT WNDS AT BUOY 44009 NOW SE. WILL STILL                
KEEP SCA FOR NRN CSTL WTRS LATER TONIGHT...BUT AGAIN THIS SHUD BE               
A MARGINAL EVENT WITH ANY 5 FOOTERS REMAINING WELL OFFSHORE (IVOF               
20 NM LIMIT).                                                                   
CDFRNT MOVES ACROSS MARINE AREA LATE SUN SHFTG WNDS INTO A MORE NRLY            
DRCTN. LTST DATA SUGGESTS THAT WNDS MAY APPRCH SCA IN THE CHES BAY              
ON MON...BUT WILL CAP AT 15 KTS FOR NOW. LATER SHFTS CAN HOIST SCA              
HEADLINES ON MON IF NEEDED.                                                     
&&                                                                              
.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
MD...NONE.                                                                      
NC...NONE.                                                                      
VA...NONE.                                                                      
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ650-652.             
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SYNOPSIS...ALB/MAM                                                              
NEAR TERM...ALB/MAM                                                             
SHORT TERM...ALB                                                                
LONG TERM...MPR                                                                 
AVIATION...TMG/BAJ                                                              
MARINE...MPR                                                                    
</pre> md                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
130 PM EDT SAT MAY 3 2008                                                       
UPDATED FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE                                                    
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
MAIN FCST CONCERNS ARE PCPN TRENDS/TYPE TODAY AND NEXT ROUND OF PCPN            
CHANCES SUN THROUGH MON.                                                        
WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS INDICATED A TROUGH OVER CNTRL NOAM WITH             
MID/UPPER LEVEL LOWS ON THE WEST SIDE OF HUDSON BAY AND OVER NE IA.             
A PROMINENT DRY SLOT WITH THE AXIS OF THE 250-300 MB JET EXTENDED               
FROM IL AND SE WI INTO CNTRL/ERN UPPER MI. AT THE SFC...A TROUGH                
EXTENDED FROM CNTRL LAKE SUPERIOR INTO SW IA. RADARS SHOWED A BAND              
OF RAIN FROM NE MN AND WRN LAKE SUPERIOR THROUGH NW WI INTO ERN MN              
ASSOCIATED WITH AN AREA OF 700-500 MB DEFORMATION/FGEN. PATCHY LIGHT            
RAIN WAS ALSO NOTED VCNTY KLNL AND BRUCE CROSSING. SO FAR...ONLY MIX            
WITH SNOW WAS OBSERVED AT KDLH BTWN 03Z-06Z AND AT 0730Z AT KHYR                
WHEN THE HEAVIER PCPN BAND MOVED THROUGH.                                       
TODAY...MDLS ARE CONSISTENT IN OPENING UP THE SW WI MID LEVEL LOW               
AND LIFTING IT TO THE NE AS THE NRN LOW WOBBLES INTO NW ONTARIO.                
ALTHOUGH THE STRONGEST 700-500 MB DEF/FGEN WAS LIFTING NNE INTO NRN             
ONTARIO...PER 00Z NAM/GFS...A TRAILING BAND OF DEF/FGEN WITH THE                
COLD CONVEYOR IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE WEST HALF UPPER MI                
THIS MORNING AND INTO THE EAST THIS AFTERNOON AS IT CONTINUES TO                
WEAKEN. RADAR TRENDS SUGGEST THAT THE 00Z NAM WAS A BIT TOO FAR EAST            
AND AGGRESSIVE WITH PCPN AMOUNTS OVER THE FAR WEST. MDL                         
SOUNDINGS...QPF AND FCST WET-BULB ZERO HEIGHTS ALSO SUGGESTED THAT              
THE LOWER LEVELS WOULD COOL ENOUGH FOR THE RAIN TO CHANGE OVER TO               
SNOW WITH SEVERAL INCHES POSSIBLE OVER HIGHER TERRAIN.                          
HOWEVER...SINCE THE PCPN BAND...FORCING AND ASSOCIATED DYNAMIC                  
COOLING HAVE BEEN WEAKER...EXPECT ONLY A MIX OR OCNL CHANGE OVER TO             
SNOW AND LITTLE ACCUMULATION (LESS THAN AN INCH). OTHERWISE...AREA              
OF LIGHT RAIN ARE EXPECTED. AREAS OF FOG EARLY OVER THE EAST HALF               
WILL ALSO QUICKLY DISSIPATE AS WINDS VEER TO THE NW AS THE SFC                  
TROUGH MOVES THROUGH.                                                           
TONIGHT...ANY LEFTOVER PCPN OVER THE ERN PORTION OF THE CWA SHOULD              
END EARLY AND CLEARING WILL MOVE IN AS QVECTOR DIV AND SFC RIDING               
MOVE IN ALONG WITH SIGNIFICANT DRY ADVECTION.                                   
SUN AND SUN NIGHT...THE GLOBAL MODELS ALONG WITH THE NAM AGREE THAT             
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL PIVOT AROUND THE VORTEX OVER NW                         
ONTARIO BRINGING THE POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF PCPN. MODELS                
TRENDS HAVE BEEN TOWARD A QUICKER MOVEMENT WITH THIS SYSTEM WITH THE            
BEST PCPN CHANCES INTO THE CWA SUN AFTERNOON INTO SUN EVENING.                  
ALTHOUGH MODERATE QVECTOR CONV AND UPPER LEVEL DIV WITH THE LEFT                
EXIT OF AN UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK WILL BE CAPABLE OF SQUEEZING OUT              
PCPN WITH LITTLE ADDITIONAL INFLOW...GIVEN RECENT MODELS VARIABILITY            
AND UNCERTAINTY WHERE THE MAIN BAND OF PCPN WILL SET UP...THE FCST              
INCLUDES ONLY LOWER END POPS.                                                   
MON INTO TUE...UPPER MI REMAINS NEAR THE MAIN BAROCLINIC ZONE AND               
FAST WRLY FLOW SOUTH OF THE PERSISTENT VORTEX NEAR THE SW END OF                
HUDSON BAY. SO...POTENTIAL REMAINS FOR SHORTWAVES WITH AREAS OF PCPN            
TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION. CONFIDENCE IN THE TIMING AND POSITION OF            
THESE FEATURES REMAINS LOW GIVEN CONTINUED LARGE VARIATION BTWN                 
MODELS AND LAKC OF RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY.                                      
SO...ADDITIONAL PCPN CHANCES MAY BE NEEDED FOR TUE BUT WERE NOT                 
ADDED YET.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION (FOR THE 18Z TAF ISSUANCE)...                                         
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO IMPROVE AS PCPN MOVES OUT WITH IFR                  
CONDITIONS AT KCMX EARLY THIS AFTERNOON RAPIDLY GOING TO MVFR AND               
THEN VFR BY THIS EVENING. KSAW WILL GO FROM MVFR TO VFR THIS EVENING.           
&&                                                                              
.MARINE (FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)...                       
FUNNELING NE WINDS OVER THE WESTERN THIRD OF LS WILL WEAKEN AS WINDS            
SHIFT AROUND THE EXITING SURFACE LOW...SHIFTING NORTH OF LS BY EARLY            
AFTERNOON.  THIS WILL GIVE AN OPPORTUNITY FOR NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS             
OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE LAKE.  HOWEVER...WITH THE QUICKLY                 
MOVING LOW GALE FORCE WIND GUSTS SHOULD BE TRANSIENT IN NATURE.                 
OTHERWISE...WINDS AT OR BELOW 20KT ARE FIGURED.  A LOW CONFIDENCE               
FORECAST IS IN STORE FOR THE END OF THE PERIOD...WITH THE NEXT                  
SIGNIFICANT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING IN FROM THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN             
PLAINS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.                                                   
&&                                                                              
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                        
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
DISCUSSION...JLB                                                                
AVIATION...GM                                                                   
MARINE...KF                                                                     
</pre> mi                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
705 AM EDT SAT MAY 3 2008                                                       
UPDATED FOR 12Z TAF ISSUANCE                                                    
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
MAIN FCST CONCERNS ARE PCPN TRENDS/TYPE TODAY AND NEXT ROUND OF PCPN            
CHANCES SUN THROUGH MON.                                                        
WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS INDICATED A TROUGH OVER CNTRL NOAM WITH             
MID/UPPER LEVEL LOWS ON THE WEST SIDE OF HUDSON BAY AND OVER NE IA.             
A PROMINENT DRY SLOT WITH THE AXIS OF THE 250-300 MB JET EXTENDED               
FROM IL AND SE WI INTO CNTRL/ERN UPPER MI. AT THE SFC...A TROUGH                
EXTENDED FROM CNTRL LAKE SUPERIOR INTO SW IA. RADARS SHOWED A BAND              
OF RAIN FROM NE MN AND WRN LAKE SUPERIOR THROUGH NW WI INTO ERN MN              
ASSOCIATED WITH AN AREA OF 700-500 MB DEFORMATION/FGEN. PATCHY LIGHT            
RAIN WAS ALSO NOTED VCNTY KLNL AND BRUCE CROSSING. SO FAR...ONLY MIX            
WITH SNOW WAS OBSERVED AT KDLH BTWN 03Z-06Z AND AT 0730Z AT KHYR                
WHEN THE HEAVIER PCPN BAND MOVED THROUGH.                                       
TODAY...MDLS ARE CONSISTENT IN OPENING UP THE SW WI MID LEVEL LOW               
AND LIFTING IT TO THE NE AS THE NRN LOW WOBBLES INTO NW ONTARIO.                
ALTHOUGH THE STRONGEST 700-500 MB DEF/FGEN WAS LIFTING NNE INTO NRN             
ONTARIO...PER 00Z NAM/GFS...A TRAILING BAND OF DEF/FGEN WITH THE                
COLD CONVEYOR IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE WEST HALF UPPER MI                
THIS MORNING AND INTO THE EAST THIS AFTERNOON AS IT CONTINUES TO                
WEAKEN. RADAR TRENDS SUGGEST THAT THE 00Z NAM WAS A BIT TOO FAR EAST            
AND AGGRESSIVE WITH PCPN AMOUNTS OVER THE FAR WEST. MDL                         
SOUNDINGS...QPF AND FCST WET-BULB ZERO HEIGHTS ALSO SUGGESTED THAT              
THE LOWER LEVELS WOULD COOL ENOUGH FOR THE RAIN TO CHANGE OVER TO               
SNOW WITH SEVERAL INCHES POSSIBLE OVER HIGHER TERRAIN.                          
HOWEVER...SINCE THE PCPN BAND...FORCING AND ASSOCIATED DYNAMIC                  
COOLING HAVE BEEN WEAKER...EXPECT ONLY A MIX OR OCNL CHANGE OVER TO             
SNOW AND LITTLE ACCUMULATION (LESS THAN AN INCH). OTHERWISE...AREA              
OF LIGHT RAIN ARE EXPECTED. AREAS OF FOG EARLY OVER THE EAST HALF               
WILL ALSO QUICKLY DISSIPATE AS WINDS VEER TO THE NW AS THE SFC                  
TROUGH MOVES THROUGH.                                                           
TONIGHT...ANY LEFTOVER PCPN OVER THE ERN PORTION OF THE CWA SHOULD              
END EARLY AND CLEARING WILL MOVE IN AS QVECTOR DIV AND SFC RIDING               
MOVE IN ALONG WITH SIGNIFICANT DRY ADVECTION.                                   
SUN AND SUN NIGHT...THE GLOBAL MODELS ALONG WITH THE NAM AGREE THAT             
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL PIVOT AROUND THE VORTEX OVER NW                         
ONTARIO BRINGING THE POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF PCPN. MODELS                
TRENDS HAVE BEEN TOWARD A QUICKER MOVEMENT WITH THIS SYSTEM WITH THE            
BEST PCPN CHANCES INTO THE CWA SUN AFTERNOON INTO SUN EVENING.                  
ALTHOUGH MODERATE QVECTOR CONV AND UPPER LEVEL DIV WITH THE LEFT                
EXIT OF AN UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK WILL BE CAPABLE OF SQUEEZING OUT              
PCPN WITH LITTLE ADDITIONAL INFLOW...GIVEN RECENT MODELS VARIABILITY            
AND UNCERTAINTY WHERE THE MAIN BAND OF PCPN WILL SET UP...THE FCST              
INCLUDES ONLY LOWER END POPS.                                                   
MON INTO TUE...UPPER MI REMAINS NEAR THE MAIN BAROCLINIC ZONE AND               
FAST WRLY FLOW SOUTH OF THE PERSISTENT VORTEX NEAR THE SW END OF                
HUDSON BAY. SO...POTENTIAL REMAINS FOR SHORTWAVES WITH AREAS OF PCPN            
TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION. CONFIDENCE IN THE TIMING AND POSITION OF            
THESE FEATURES REMAINS LOW GIVEN CONTINUED LARGE VARIATION BTWN                 
MODELS AND LAKC OF RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY.                                      
SO...ADDITIONAL PCPN CHANCES MAY BE NEEDED FOR TUE BUT WERE NOT                 
ADDED YET.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION (FOR THE 12Z TAF ISSUANCE)...                                         
VIS AND CEIGS ARE SLOWLY REBOUNDING...AT LEAST TEMPORARILY AS                   
ADDITIONAL RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS ROTATE IN FROM THE WEST...AND THE              
MAIN SFC LOW SHIFTS NORTH OF SAW.  CEIGS AT CMX SHOULD REMAIN IN THE            
IFR CATEGORY WITH UPSLOPE WIND DIRECTION TODAY...AND THE POTENTIAL              
FOR SHRASN AFTER 14Z.  DRIER AIR WILL SLIDE IN LATE IN THE                      
PERIOD...WITH SCT CLOUDS AND LIGHTER WINDS.                                     
&&                                                                              
.MARINE (FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)...                       
FUNNELING NE WINDS OVER THE WESTERN THIRD OF LS WILL WEAKEN AS WINDS            
SHIFT AROUND THE EXITING SURFACE LOW...SHIFTING NORTH OF LS BY EARLY            
AFTERNOON.  THIS WILL GIVE AN OPPORTUNITY FOR NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS             
OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE LAKE.  HOWEVER...WITH THE QUICKLY                 
MOVING LOW GALE FORCE WIND GUSTS SHOULD BE TRANSIENT IN NATURE.                 
OTHERWISE...WINDS AT OR BELOW 20KT ARE FIGURED.  A LOW CONFIDENCE               
FORECAST IS IN STORE FOR THE END OF THE PERIOD...WITH THE NEXT                  
SIGNIFICANT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING IN FROM THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN             
PLAINS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.                                                   
&&                                                                              
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                        
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
DISCUSSION...JLB                                                                
AVIATION...KF                                                                   
MARINE...KF                                                                     
</pre> mi                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
445 AM EDT SAT MAY 3 2008                                                       
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
MAIN FCST CONCERNS ARE PCPN TRENDS/TYPE TODAY AND NEXT ROUND OF PCPN            
CHANCES SUN THROUGH MON.                                                        
WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS INDICATED A TROUGH OVER CNTRL NOAM WITH             
MID/UPPER LEVEL LOWS ON THE WEST SIDE OF HUDSON BAY AND OVER NE IA.             
A PROMINENT DRY SLOT WITH THE AXIS OF THE 250-300 MB JET EXTENDED               
FROM IL AND SE WI INTO CNTRL/ERN UPPER MI. AT THE SFC...A TROUGH                
EXTENDED FROM CNTRL LAKE SUPERIOR INTO SW IA. RADARS SHOWED A BAND              
OF RAIN FROM NE MN AND WRN LAKE SUPERIOR THROUGH NW WI INTO ERN MN              
ASSOCIATED WITH AN AREA OF 700-500 MB DEFORMATION/FGEN. PATCHY LIGHT            
RAIN WAS ALSO NOTED VCNTY KLNL AND BRUCE CROSSING. SO FAR...ONLY MIX            
WITH SNOW WAS OBSERVED AT KDLH BTWN 03Z-06Z AND AT 0730Z AT KHYR                
WHEN THE HEAVIER PCPN BAND MOVED THROUGH.                                       
TODAY...MDLS ARE CONSISTENT IN OPENING UP THE SW WI MID LEVEL LOW               
AND LIFTING IT TO THE NE AS THE NRN LOW WOBBLES INTO NW ONTARIO.                
ALTHOUGH THE STRONGEST 700-500 MB DEF/FGEN WAS LIFTING NNE INTO NRN             
ONTARIO...PER 00Z NAM/GFS...A TRAILING BAND OF DEF/FGEN WITH THE                
COLD CONVEYOR IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE WEST HALF UPPER MI                
THIS MORNING AND INTO THE EAST THIS AFTERNOON AS IT CONTINUES TO                
WEAKEN. RADAR TRENDS SUGGEST THAT THE 00Z NAM WAS A BIT TOO FAR EAST            
AND AGGRESSIVE WITH PCPN AMOUNTS OVER THE FAR WEST. MDL                         
SOUNDINGS...QPF AND FCST WET-BULB ZERO HEIGHTS ALSO SUGGESTED THAT              
THE LOWER LEVELS WOULD COOL ENOUGH FOR THE RAIN TO CHANGE OVER TO               
SNOW WITH SEVERAL INCHES POSSIBLE OVER HIGHER TERRAIN.                          
HOWEVER...SINCE THE PCPN BAND...FORCING AND ASSOCIATED DYNAMIC                  
COOLING HAVE BEEN WEAKER...EXPECT ONLY A MIX OR OCNL CHANGE OVER TO             
SNOW AND LITTLE ACCUMULATION (LESS THAN AN INCH). OTHERWISE...AREA              
OF LIGHT RAIN ARE EXPECTED. AREAS OF FOG EARLY OVER THE EAST HALF               
WILL ALSO QUICKLY DISSIPATE AS WINDS VEER TO THE NW AS THE SFC                  
TROUGH MOVES THROUGH.                                                           
TONIGHT...ANY LEFTOVER PCPN OVER THE ERN PORTION OF THE CWA SHOULD              
END EARLY AND CLEARING WILL MOVE IN AS QVECTOR DIV AND SFC RIDING               
MOVE IN ALONG WITH SIGNIFICANT DRY ADVECTION.                                   
SUN AND SUN NIGHT...THE GLOBAL MODELS ALONG WITH THE NAM AGREE THAT             
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL PIVOT AROUND THE VORTEX OVER NW                         
ONTARIO BRINGING THE POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF PCPN. MODELS                
TRENDS HAVE BEEN TOWARD A QUICKER MOVEMENT WITH THIS SYSTEM WITH THE            
BEST PCPN CHANCES INTO THE CWA SUN AFTERNOON INTO SUN EVENING.                  
ALTHOUGH MODERATE QVECTOR CONV AND UPPER LEVEL DIV WITH THE LEFT                
EXIT OF AN UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK WILL BE CAPABLE OF SQUEEZING OUT              
PCPN WITH LITTLE ADDITIONAL INFLOW...GIVEN RECENT MODELS VARIABILITY            
AND UNCERTAINTY WHERE THE MAIN BAND OF PCPN WILL SET UP...THE FCST              
INCLUDES ONLY LOWER END POPS.                                                   
MON INTO TUE...UPPER MI REMAINS NEAR THE MAIN BAROCLINIC ZONE AND               
FAST WRLY FLOW SOUTH OF THE PERSISTENT VORTEX NEAR THE SW END OF                
HUDSON BAY. SO...POTENTIAL REMAINS FOR SHORTWAVES WITH AREAS OF PCPN            
TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION. CONFIDENCE IN THE TIMING AND POSITION OF            
THESE FEATURES REMAINS LOW GIVEN CONTINUED LARGE VARIATION BTWN                 
MODELS AND LAKC OF RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY.                                      
SO...ADDITIONAL PCPN CHANCES MAY BE NEEDED FOR TUE BUT WERE NOT                 
ADDED YET.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION (FOR THE 06Z TAF ISSUANCE)...                                         
EXPECT PREDOMINANT IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS INTO THE EARLY MRNG HRS WITH             
LINGERING SHOWERS AT CMX/FOG IN MOIST SSE FLOW AHEAD OF APRCHG LO               
PRES FM WRN WI AND ATTENDANT WARM FNT. ONCE THE LO SHIFTS INTO LK               
SUP EARLY THIS MRNG AND THE WARM FNT PASSES SAW...EXPECT IMPROVING              
CONDITIONS THERE. BUT CMX WL BE ON THE COOL SIDE OF THE LO TRACK...             
SO NO IMPROVEMENT IS LIKELY THERE UNTIL SUNRISE WHEN THE INCRSG NW              
FLOW IN THE WAKE OF THE LO IMPROVES VSBY THERE. BUT CIGS SHOULD                 
REMAIN IN THE IFR CATEGORY WITH UPSLOPE WIND DIRECTION. MORE                    
SHRASN/LOWER VSBYS WL ARRIVE THIS MRNG WITH BACKWASH MSTR/COLDER                
AIRMASS. DOWNSLOPING NW WIND WL LIMIT THE IMPACT AT SAW WHEN THIS               
DEEPER MSTR MOVES IN BY EARLY AFTN. PUSH OF DRIER AIR INTO THE UPR              
LKS WL ALLOW CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE TO VFR LATE IN THE DAY.                      
&&                                                                              
.MARINE (FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)...                       
FUNNELING NE WINDS OVER THE WESTERN THIRD OF LS WILL WEAKEN AS WINDS            
SHIFT AROUND THE EXITING SURFACE LOW...SHIFTING NORTH OF LS BY EARLY            
AFTERNOON.  THIS WILL GIVE AN OPPORTUNITY FOR NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS             
OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE LAKE.  HOWEVER...WITH THE QUICKLY                 
MOVING LOW GALE FORCE WIND GUSTS SHOULD BE TRANSIENT IN NATURE.                 
OTHERWISE...WINDS AT OR BELOW 20KT ARE FIGURED.  A LOW CONFIDENCE               
FORECAST IS IN STORE FOR THE END OF THE PERIOD...WITH THE NEXT                  
SIGNIFICANT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING IN FROM THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN             
PLAINS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.                                                   
&&                                                                              
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
UPPER MICHIGAN...FLOOD ADVY UNTIL EARLY SAT MRNG FOR                            
MIZ002-003-009-084.                                                             
LAKE SUPERIOR...NONE.                                                           
LAKE MICHIGAN...NONE.                                                           
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
DISCUSSION...JLB                                                                
AVIATION...KC                                                                   
MARINE...KF                                                                     
</pre> mi                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
115 PM EDT FRI MAY 2 2008                                                       
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
MAIN FCST CONCERNS ARE PCPN TRENDS/TYPE THROUGH SATURDAY.                       
WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS INDICATED MID/UPPER LEVEL LOWS OVER THE             
SW END OF HUDSON BAY AND OVER WRN NEB AND A RIDGE OVER THE SE CONUS             
LEAVING UPPER MI NEAR A CONFLUENT ZONE BTWN THESE FEATURES. AT THE              
SFC...LOW PRES WAS LOCATED OVER CNTRL SD WITH A WARM FRONT TO THE SE            
INTO NRN IL. A BAND OF TSRA FROM NW TO S CNTRL WI WITH INNSTABILITY             
AND ISENTROPIC LIFT JUST NORTH OF THE 850 MB WARM FRONT. FARTHER                
NORTH ANOTHER BAND OF PCPN FROM W UPPER MI TO NRN LOWER MI WAS                  
SUPPORTED BY 800-600 MB FGEN/DEFORMATION.                                       
TODAY AND TONIGHT...                                                            
MODELS WERE IN DECENT OVERALL AGREEMENT IN THE                                  
SHORT TERM. SO HAVE GENERALLY USED A BLEND OF THE 00Z NAM/GFS AND               
LCL HIGH RES WRF/ARW.                                                           
EXPECT THE BAND OF 800-600 MB FGEN/DEF NORTH OF THE 850 MB WARM                 
FRONT TO SLOWLY LIFT TO THE NORTH THIS MORNING WITH A PERIOD OF                 
LIGHT RAIN ACROSS THE CWA WHICH SHOULD TAPER OFF BTWN 15Z-18Z. EVEN             
THERE MAY BE A LULL IN THE PCPN BY MIDDAY OR DURING THE                         
AFTERNOON...WITH LINGERING 295K-300K ISENTROPIC LIFT AND THE                    
POSSIBILITY OF ADDITIONAL PCPN DEVELOPING AHEAD OF THE NEXT MAIN                
PCPN BAND...LIKEL CONTINUE...AS IN THE PREVIOUS FCST.                           
BY LATE AFTERNOON...UPPER LEVEL DIV WITH THE RIGHT ENTRANCE OF THE              
250-300 MB JET OVER NRN ONTARIO ALONG WITH AN AREA OF STRONG 700-500            
QVECTOR CONV AHEAD OF THE MID LEVEL LOW MOVING FROM MN TOWARD UPPER             
MI WILL LEAD TO LARGE SCALE LIFT OVER THE AREA. THE COMBINATION OF              
LARGE SCALE LIFT...ABUNDANT MOISTURE...850 MB DEWPOINT AROUND 10C...            
AND ANOTHER BAND OF STRONG 800-600 FGEN/300K-305 ISENTROPIC LIFT                
WILL BRING ANOTHER AREA OF RAIN THROUGH THE CWA...MAINLY BTWN                   
21Z-03Z. THE BEST CHANCE FOR SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL AMOUNTS 0.50-1.25             
INCH RANGE IS EXPECTED OVER THE WEST HALF. WHILE THE AMOUNT MAY NOT             
BE TOO EXCESSIVE...IT COULD PUSH SOME RIVER LEVELS BACK NEAR FLOOD              
STAGE.                                                                          
OVERNIGHT...ANY LINGERING PCPN SHOULD FOCUS OVER THE WEST                       
THIRD...CLOSEST TO THE STRONGEST UPPER LEVEL DIV FROM THE LEFT EXIT             
OF THE UPPER LEVEL JET AND QVECTOR CONV NEAR THE DEFORMATION AXIS.              
THE DRY SLOT SHOULD BRING AND END TO MOST OF THE PCPN OVER THE EAST             
HALF.                                                                           
ALTHOUGH MUCAPE VALUES IN THE 200-400 J/KG RANGE REMAIN MAINLY SOUTH            
OF UPPER MI THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...NEG GFS 850 MB VALUES AND              
THE STRENGTH OF THE DYNAMICS...ISOLD TSRA STILL POSSIBLE OVER MUCH              
OR THE CWA.                                                                     
SAT...THE MID LEVEL TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO OPEN UP AND LIFT TO THE               
ENE AS THE VORTEX OVER CANADA PIVOTS SLOWLY WESTWARD INTO NRN                   
MANITOBA. THE ASSOCIATED AREA OF QVECTOR CONV WILL BRING AN AREA OF             
LIGHT PCPN THROUGH UPPER MI. CAA BRINGS IN ENOUGH COOLING FOR MIX OR            
CHANGEOVER TO SNOW FROM WEST TO EAST. WET-BULB ZERO HEIGHTS AND FCST            
SOUNDINGS SUGGEST A CHANGE TO MAINLY SNOW OVER THE FAR WEST DURING              
THE MORNING. HOWEVER...QPF AMOUNTS AND THE RELATIVELY WARM GROUND               
SHOULD LIMIT ANY ACCUMULATIONS IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN TO AN INCH OR              
LESS.                                                                           
SUN INTO MON...THE 12Z ECMWF AND 00Z GFS SUGGEST PCPN MAY BE                    
POSSIBLE SUN NIGHT AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH PIVOTS AROUND THE VORTEX               
LINGERING OVER NRN ONTARIO. WITH ONLY LIMITED MOISTURE AVAILABLE AND            
UNCERTAINTY WITH TIMING/STRENGTH OF THIS FEATURE...ONLY LOWER END               
CHANCE POPS WERE INCLUDED.                                                      
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION (FOR THE 18Z TAF ISSUANCE)...                                         
IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH RAIN.                 
CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE ON SATURDAY AS THE LOW CENTER MOVES INTO                
ONTARIO AND DRY AIR ADVECTS INTO THE AREA. AS THE WIND GOES WEST BY             
EARLY AFTERNOON AT KSAW...MVFR CONDITIONS WILL TAKE OVER WITH                   
WRAPAROUND MOISTURE AROUND.                                                     
&&                                                                              
.MARINE (FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)...                       
AS LOW PRESSURE LIFTS INTO UPR LAKES NEXT 24 HR AS HIGH PRESSURE                
RIDGE OVR ONTARIO FADES AWAY. NORTHEAST WIND DIRECTION DOWN WESTERN             
LAKE SUPERIOR WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT OCCASIONAL GALE FORCE GUSTS              
TODAY. TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT ALONG WITH INCREASING WINDS JUST OFF             
SURFACE RESULT IN MORE FREQUENT GALE FORCE GUST TOWARD THE NEAR                 
DULUTH END OF LAKE SUPERIOR ON TODAY. AS THE LOW PRESSURE SHIFTS                
AWAY FROM THE UPPER LAKES BY LATE WEEKEND...THE WINDS WILL GRADUALLY            
DIMINISH AS A RESULT. BEYOND THE NEXT 24 HRS WINDS EXPECTED TO                  
REMAIN BELOW 30 KNOTS.                                                          
&&                                                                              
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                        
UPPER MICHIGAN..NONE.                                                           
LAKE SUPERIOR...                                                                
  GALE WARNING FROM 10 AM TO 10 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR LSZ162.                       
LAKE MICHIGAN...NONE.                                                           
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
DISCUSSION...JLB                                                                
AVIATION...GM                                                                   
MARINE...DLG                                                                    
</pre> mi                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN                                              
1046 AM CDT SAT MAY 3 2008                                                      
.UPDATE...UPPER LOW REALLY PULLING AWAY QUICKLY THIS MORNING.                   
PULLED POPS AND LOWERED CLOUD COVER OVER MUCH THE THE FA. THE                   
EXCEPTION IS ALONG THE EASTERN TIER COUNTIES IN WI INCLUDING IRON               
AND PRICE. WEB CAM IN HURLEY CONFIRMS KIWD VSBY OF 1SM WITH WET                 
SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUING...LIKELY THROUGH THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS.                 
ALSO RAISED HIGH TEMPS THIS AFTERNOON 2 TO 3 DEGREES DESPITE                    
CAA...WITH GOOD MIXING UNDERWAY AND AMPLE MAY SUNSHINE ACROSS                   
MOST OF THE FA.                                                                 
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 341 AM CDT SAT MAY 3 2008/                          
DISCUSSION...                                                                   
SFC LOW OVER WRN UP OF MICHIGAN TRACKING NE TOWARDS 5MB/3HR                     
ISALLOBAR OVER CTRL ONTARIO. DEFORMATION AXIS PIVOTING SLOWLY OVER              
ERN CWA...WHILE TRANSLATING EAST AS WELL. TYPICAL SPRINGTIME SETUP...           
WITH AREAS OF WET SNOW OCCURRING UNDERNEATH POCKETS OF BEST                     
UVV AND ASSOCIATED DIABATIC COOLING. ONCE UVV WEAKENS...POPTYP                  
REVERTS TO MAINLY LIQUID. SFC TEMPS ACTUALLY RISING NEAR TWIN                   
PORTS JUST WEST OF BACK EDGE OF PRECIP SHIELD. REPORTS FROM COOK                
CO SHERIFFS OFFICE OF SEVERAL INCHES OF SLUSHY SNOW OVER THE                    
HILL...AWAY FROM MARINE INFLUENCE NEAR LAKE.ANTICIPATE ANOTHER                  
INCH OR SO OF WET SLUSH OVER INTERIOR COOK COUNTY BEFORE BOTH                   
THERMAL/MOISTURE PROFILES BECOME LESS FAVORABLE. SECOND AREA OF                 
SLUSHY ACCUMULATION POSSIBLE OVER INTERIOR NW WISC WHERE RUC13                  
ANIMATION OF BDRY LYR TEMPERATURES SHOWS A POCKET OF DIABATIC COOLING.          
SHOULD BE SHORT LIVED HOWEVER AS BETTER UVV PUSHES EAST BY 12Z.                 
BRISK NW WINDS TODAY AS ANY MIXING TAPS INTO UNIDIRECTIONAL                     
SFC/85H FLOW. ANOMALOUS VORTEX OVER NRN MANITOBA WILL SAG SOUTH                 
PER MDL CONSENSUS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND. SOME                       
DIFFERENCES ON MINOR QPF/POPS...HOWEVER STILL LOOKS LIKE A FEW                  
SHOWERS WILL SKIRT NRN HALF OF CWA SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT. BEYOND                  
THAT...SEVERAL WEAK DISTURBANCES WILL SLIDE QUICKLY ALONG WNW MID               
LVL FLOW THROUGH TUESDAY. LOW POPS/QPF AS DEEP LAYER MOISTURE WILL              
BE LACKING.                                                                     
EXTENDED...SLOW MODERATION IN COOL AIR OVER CWA. NO MAJOR SYSTEMS               
THROUGH FRIDAY AS RATHER WEAK MID LVL FLOW DOMINATES NRN CONUS.                 
AVIATION...                                                                     
CEILINGS SHOULD LIFT TO VFR ALL AREAS BY AFTERNOON...WITH THE                   
EXCEPTION OF THE KPBH AND KIWD AREAS...WHERE MVFR CONDITIONS WILL               
LINGER.                                                                         
&&                                                                              
POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                             
DLH  49  29  55  32 /  10  10  20  20                                           
INL  48  28  51  29 /  10  10  30  20                                           
BRD  53  32  60  36 /  10  10  10  10                                           
HYR  52  28  58  35 /  40  10  10  20                                           
ASX  48  29  56  34 /  50  10  20  30                                           
&&                                                                              
.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
MN...NONE.                                                                      
WI...NONE.                                                                      
LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR LSZ121-               
     LSZ146-LSZ147-LSZ148.                                                      
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR LSZ140-             
     LSZ141-LSZ142-LSZ143-LSZ144-LSZ145.                                        
$$                                                                              
LILES                                                                           
</pre> mn                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN                              
943 AM CDT SAT MAY 3 2008                                                       
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
THE GOING FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK...WITH DRIER AIR MOVING INTO THE              
REGION AND THE LAST VESTIGES OF PCPN EXITED THE EAST. VISIBLE                   
IMAGERY SHOWS CLEAR SKIES OVER MOST OF THE CWFA AT THIS                         
TIME....WITH MOST OF THE LINGERING CLOUD COVER CONFINED TO THE                  
WISCONSIN COUNTIES. THE LATEST RUC 925-600MB RH FIELDS HAVE A GOOD              
HANDLE ON THE CURRENT CLOUD SITUATION...AND THIS WOULD SUGGEST                  
THE SIGNIFICANT CLOUDS SHOULD BE ABLE TO EXIT THE ENTIRE AREA                   
BEFORE 18Z AND THE LINGERING PCPN OVER THE FAR EAST SHOULD BE DONE              
PRIOR TO THEN GIVEN THE DWINDLING MOISTURE AND DEPARTURE OF                     
DOWNWARD MOTION MOVING IN ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE SHORTWAVE.                     
12Z SOUNDINGS FROM AROUND THE AREA ARE NOT VERY SUPPORTIVE FOR                  
MUCH IN THE WAY OF DIURNAL CU...BUT WOULD EXPECT TO SEE A LITTLE                
BIT IN THE LINGERING CYCLONIC BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW UNTIL THE                     
DEWPOINTS ARE ABLE TO MIX OUT. HOWEVER...DO NOT ENVISION ANYTHING               
MORE THAN PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AT BEST IN THE CURRENT CLEAR                      
AREA...WHICH LINES UP WELL WITH THE GOING FORECAST. HIGH                        
TEMPERATURES LOOK ON TRACK AS WELL...GENERALLY RANGING FROM THE                 
MID 40S TO MID 50S. MAY BUMP UP EASTERN ZONES SLIGHTLY GIVEN A                  
SLIGHTLY EARLIER DEPARTURE OF THE CLOUD COVER. BREEZY CONDITIONS                
WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE DAY...ALTHOUGH WINDS HAVE ALREADY DROPPED              
BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA...SO THE HEADLINE WAS ALLOWED TO EXPIRE.                
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION.../12Z TAF ISSUANCE ISSUED 707 AM CDT SAT MAY 3 2008/                 
CLOUDS AND RAIN SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO EXIT THE TAF SITES THIS                
MORNING...WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT ALL TAF SITES BY AROUND 15Z.          
BRISK NORTHWEST WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE THIS MORNING...AS                 
THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT SLACKENS WITH THE EASTWARD MOVEMENT               
OF THE LOW OVER LAKE SUPERIOR. CLEAR SKIES WILL PREVAIL THIS                    
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH ONLY FLEETING CIRRUS EXPECTED THROUGH              
THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD. WINDS WILL BACK TO THE SOUTHWEST THIS                
EVENING...AND DECREASE TO BELOW 10 KNOTS.                                       
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION...                                                             
/ISSUED 323 AM CDT SAT MAY 3 2008/                                              
UPPER LOW BEGINNING TO SHEAR OUT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST AND CLOUDS                
HAVE BEEN CLEARING OUT OF W MN. BY 12Z MOST OF THE REMAINING                    
PRECIP WILL BE CONFINED TO OUR WI ZONES AND EVEN THERE RAIN SHOULD              
BE OVER BY 18Z. NOT SEEING MUCH IN THE WAY OF SNOW IN ANY OF THE                
OBS SO REMOVED FROM FORECAST. METARS SHOWING WIND ADVISORY TO BE                
BE MARGINAL EXCEPT IN SW/SC MN WHERE A FEW STATIONS HAVE BEEN                   
SHOWING SUSTAINED WINDS OVER 30 MPH. WDL PROFILER ALSO JUST                     
BEGINNING TO SHOW DECREASING TREND ON WINDS. WILL LET THE ADVISORY              
EXPIRE AS SCHEDULED AT 0900. INCREASED SPEED OF CLEARING A BIT FOR              
TODAY WITH MAINLY JUST MID CLOUDS NOW WEST OF A STC TO RWF LINE.                
WINDS GAIN A BIT MORE OF A WESTERLY COMPONENT BY 18Z AND EVEN MORE              
SO IN THE AFTERNOON WHICH SHOULD CONTINUE TO MOVE THE CLEARING                  
ALONG. QUITE LOW SURFACE DEWPOINTS ACROSS THE DAKOTAS WHICH WILL                
PUSH INTO W MN AS WINDS BECOME MORE WEST. SHOULD SEE SOME HUMIDITY              
VALUES IN THE AFTERNOON IN WC MN IN THE MID 20% RANGE. SURFACE                  
WINDS BECOME MORE SWLY TONIGHT AHEAD OF WEAK COLD FRONT DROPPING                
INTO N MN. THIS WILL HELP TO MODERATE THE OVERNITE TEMPERATURES A               
BIT. GFS AND NAM BOTH BRING SMALL PCPN AMOUNTS INTO CENTRAL MN AND              
N WI SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH PUT SOME               
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN SMALL AREA OF EC MN INTO WI FOR THE AFTN AND              
EVE. A STRONGER WAVE COMES DOWN IN NW FLOW FOR MONDAY SO AGAIN SOME             
LOW RANGE POPS MAINLY N CWA. DIDN`T MESS MUCH WITH THE POPS WE                  
HAVE IN FOR TUESDAY. GFS SHOWING FAIRLY STRONG FORCING MOVING THRU              
AREA WITH NAM WEAKER AND FARTHER SOUTH. NO REAL STRONG PUSHES OF                
COLD AIR NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...BUT NWLY FLOW WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES               
A BIT BELOW NORMAL.                                                             
&&                                                                              
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
MN...NONE.                                                                      
WI...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
TRH/LS/BAP                                                                      
</pre> mn                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN                                              
341 AM CDT SAT MAY 3 2008                                                       
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
SFC LOW OVER WRN UP OF MICHIGAN TRACKING NE TOWARDS 5MB/3HR                     
ISALLOBAR OVER CTRL ONTARIO. DEFORMATION AXIS PIVOTING SLOWLY OVER              
ERN CWA...WHILE TRANSLATING EAST AS WELL. TYPICAL SPRINGTIME SETUP...           
WITH AREAS OF WET SNOW OCCURRING UNDERNEATH POCKETS OF BEST                     
UVV AND ASSOCIATED DIABATIC COOLING. ONCE UVV WEAKENS...POPTYP                  
REVERTS TO MAINLY LIQUID. SFC TEMPS ACTUALLY RISING NEAR TWIN                   
PORTS JUST WEST OF BACK EDGE OF PRECIP SHIELD. REPORTS FROM COOK                
CO SHERIFFS OFFICE OF SEVERAL INCHES OF SLUSHY SNOW OVER THE                    
HILL...AWAY FROM MARINE INFLUENCE NEAR LAKE.ANTICIPATE ANOTHER                  
INCH OR SO OF WET SLUSH OVER INTERIOR COOK COUNTY BEFORE BOTH                   
THERMAL/MOISTURE PROFILES BECOME LESS FAVORABLE. SECOND AREA OF                 
SLUSHY ACCUMULATION POSSIBLE OVER INTERIOR NW WISC WHERE RUC13                  
ANIMATION OF BDRY LYR TEMPERATURES SHOWS A POCKET OF DIABATIC COOLING.          
SHOULD BE SHORT LIVED HOWEVER AS BETTER UVV PUSHES EAST BY 12Z.                 
BRISK NW WINDS TODAY AS ANY MIXING TAPS INTO UNIDIRECTIONAL                     
SFC/85H FLOW. ANOMALOUS VORTEX OVER NRN MANITOBA WILL SAG SOUTH                 
PER MDL CONSENSUS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND. SOME                       
DIFFERENCES ON MINOR QPF/POPS...HOWEVER STILL LOOKS LIKE A FEW                  
SHOWERS WILL SKIRT NRN HALF OF CWA SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT. BEYOND                  
THAT...SEVERAL WEAK DISTURBANCES WILL SLIDE QUICKLY ALONG WNW MID               
LVL FLOW THROUGH TUESDAY. LOW POPS/QPF AS DEEP LAYER MOISTURE WILL              
BE LACKING.                                                                     
EXTENDED...SLOW MODERATION IN COOL AIR OVER CWA. NO MAJOR SYSTEMS               
THROUGH FRIDAY AS RATHER WEAK MID LVL FLOW DOMINATES NRN CONUS.                 
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
N AREA OF RAIN AND SNOW WAS FALLING OVER FAR EASTERN                            
MINNESOTA AND OVER NORTHWEST WISCONSIN EARLY THIS MORNING. IFR OR               
LOWER MVFR CONDITIONS WERE OCCURRING WITH THIS PRECIPITATION...WITH             
VFR CONDITIONS ELSEWHERE. THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE RESPONSIBLE FOR              
THIS PRECIPITATION WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST THIS MORNING...BRINGING            
AN END TO THE PRECIPITATION FOR MOST AREAS BY AFTERNOON. CEILINGS               
SHOULD LIFT TO VFR ALL AREAS BY AFTERNOON...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF               
THE KPBH AND KIWD AREAS...WHERE MVFR CONDITIONS WILL LINGER.                    
&&                                                                              
POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                             
DLH  46  29  55  32 /  10  10  20  20                                           
INL  46  28  51  29 /  10  10  30  20                                           
BRD  50  32  60  36 /  10  10  10  10                                           
HYR  45  28  58  35 /  40  10  10  20                                           
ASX  44  29  56  34 /  50  10  20  30                                           
&&                                                                              
.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
MN...NONE.                                                                      
WI...NONE.                                                                      
LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR LSZ121-               
     LSZ146-LSZ147-LSZ148.                                                      
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR LSZ140-             
     LSZ141-LSZ142-LSZ143-LSZ144-LSZ145.                                        
$$                                                                              
CANNON/MELDE                                                                    
</pre> mn                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN                                              
130 AM CDT SAT MAY 3 2008                                                       
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
UPDATE TO OVERNIGHT PERIOD AS LATEST RUC13 AND SFC OBS/RADAR                    
INDICATE BACK EDGE OF PRECIP SHIELD IS DIMINISHING AS DRIER AIR IS              
PULLED SOUTH. DECREASED POPS/QPF WEST OF TWIN PORTS AS MORE                     
SIGNIFICANT 85/50 OMEGA HAS MOVED FARTHER EAST. EARLIER SNOW                    
MIXING WITH RAIN WAS BEING ASSISTED BY DEEPER UVV OVER TWIN PORTS               
BUT NOW THAT THIS AREA HAS MOVED EAST...POPTYP REVERTING TO MORE                
LIQUID. WILL LEAVE RAIN/SNOW MIX BUT HAVE DECIDED TO DROP                       
ACCUMULATIONS OVER CWA EXCEPT ARROWHEAD. POPTYP/SNOW AMNTS HAVE                 
BEEN CHANGED TO REFLECT LATEST RUC13 SFC/925/850 THERMAL FIELDS.                
THIS MEANS HIGHEST PROBABILITY OF ACCUMULATING SNOW IS OVER NRN                 
LAKE COUNTY WHERE DEEPER MSTR REMAINS LONG ENOUGH FOR THERMAL                   
PROFILE COOLING.                                                                
&&                                                                              
POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                             
DLH  46  28  52  34 /  40  10  20  20                                           
INL  46  28  51  30 /  20  10  30  20                                           
BRD  50  31  60  37 /  10  10  10  10                                           
HYR  45  29  59  37 /  50  10  10  10                                           
ASX  46  30  54  37 /  50  10  10  30                                           
&&                                                                              
.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
MN...NONE.                                                                      
WI...NONE.                                                                      
LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR LSZ121-             
     LSZ140-LSZ141-LSZ142-LSZ143-LSZ144-LSZ145-LSZ146-LSZ147-                   
     LSZ148.                                                                    
$$                                                                              
CANNON/BERDES                                                                   
</pre> mn                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO                                         
1251 AM CDT FRI MAY 2 2008                                                      
...UPDATE TO AVIATION...                                                        
.UPDATE...                                                                      
0335Z...                                                                        
DRY LINE BEGINNING TO MERGE WITH COLD FRONT AS IT RETROGRADES                   
WESTWARD. RESULT OF THE MERGER HAS BEEN RAPID DEVELOPMENT OF A                  
SQUALL LINE OVER CENTRAL KANSAS INTO NORTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA.                    
SQUALL LINE WILL SHIFT EASTWARD OVERNIGHT AND AFFECT THE WESTERN CWA.           
SQUALL LINE EXPECTED TO MAINLY PRODUCE DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE                   
WINDS AND LARGE HAIL...HOWEVER SHEAR VALUES STILL ENOUGH TO                     
WARRANT MENTION OF POSSIBLE EMBEDDED TORNADOES.                                 
AHEAD OF THE SQUALL LINE....DISCRETE SUPERCELL AFFECTING BOURBON                
COUNTY STILL HAS THE POTENTIAL OF A TORNADO WITH GOOD LOW LEVEL                 
SHEAR INDICATED ON RADAR, IN ADDITION TO GOLF BALL SIZE HAIL.                   
LINDENBERG                                                                      
&&                                                                              
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
A DRYLINE ASSOCIATED WITH AN APPROACHING STORM SYSTEM SURGED INTO               
KANSAS FLINT HILLS THIS AFTERNOON.  THIS FEATURE WILL BE MONITORED              
CLOSELY OVER THE NEXT 6-8 HOURS FOR A LOW END CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORM            
DEVELOPMENT.  MEANWHILE...A 110 KNOT UPPER SPEED MAX STILL RESIDES              
OVER THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL ROCKIES.  THIS FEATURE WILL EVENTUALLY            
PROVIDE LIFT FOR EXPLOSIVE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT OVER KANSAS AND             
OKLAHOMA TONIGHT.  THIS CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE THE MAIN               
SHOW FOR EXTREME SOUTHEAST KANSAS AND THE MISSOURI OZARKS TOWARD                
FRIDAY MORNING.                                                                 
SHORT TERM (TONIGHT - FRIDAY)...                                                
AS PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED...THE DRYLINE AT 1945Z CUTS ACROSS THE                  
SOUTHERN FLINT HILLS EXTENDING FROM LAWRENCE KANSAS...TO PONCA CITY             
OKLAHOMA. AS ANTICIPATED BY SHORT TERM MODELS...EVIDENCE OF A DEVELOPING        
SURFACE LOW WAS INDICATED BY OBSERVATIONS OVER CENTRAL OKLAHOMA.                
THIS LOW WAS OCCURRING IN RESPONSE TO INCREASING DIFFLUENT FLOW                 
ALOFT.  MOISTURE CHANNEL IMAGERY DEPICTS THIS INCREASE IN DIFFLUENCE            
OVER THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS. THE POPULAR QUESTION FOR THIS                    
AFTERNOON REGARDS WHETHER OR NOT DISCRETE SUPERCELLS WILL DEVELOP               
ALONG THE DRYLINE PRIOR TO SUNSET.                                              
MY GUESS IS NO...UNLESS IT OCCURS UP IN NW MISSOURI OR FAR NE                   
KANSAS. THE AIRMASS OVER EASTERN KANSAS AND OKLAHOMA HAS TOO GREAT              
OF A DESERT INFLUENCE...CREATING A VERY STRONG CAP.  AS A MATTER OF             
FACT...19Z RUC ANALYSIS OF MEAN LAYER INHIBITION SUGGESTS THAT                  
VALUES OVER FLINT HILLS RANGE FROM 150 - 350 J/KG. DESPITE SOME                 
ADDITIONAL LIFT OCCURRING AS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS DIFFLUENCE                     
INTERSECTS THE DRYLINE LATE THIS AFTERNOON...ALONG WITH ENHANCED LOW            
LEVEL CONVERGENCE NEAR SEDAN/FREDONIA KS FROM A DEVELOPING SURFACE              
LOW OVER OKLAHOMA...I DOUBT THAT THESE LIFTING MECHANISMS WILL                  
BECOME STRONG ENOUGH TO PENETRATE UPDRAFTS THROUGH THE CAP.                     
BOTH THE WRF AND RUC SHOW STORM INITIATION NEAR SUDAN OR FREDONIA               
KANSAS BY 00Z-03Z...HOWEVER...BOTH MODELS CONTINUE TO OVERESTIMATE              
MOISTURE LEVELS.  THIS OVERESTIMATION FALSELY WEAKENS THE CAP. THIS             
IS ESPECIALLY EVIDENT IN THE RUC...WHICH SUGGESTS AN AXIS OF 69-70              
DEWPOINTS ALONG THE DRYLINE.  MORE REALISTICALLY PER LOCAL OBS...DEW            
POINT MEASUREMENTS ARE ONLY AROUND 58-62 DEGREES.                               
WHAT WILL BREAK THE CAP IS THE APPROACH OF A 110 KNOT SPEED MAX                 
WITHIN THE JET STREAM...ALONG WITH MASS CONVERGENCE IN RESPONSE TO              
AN INCREASING LOW LEVEL JET OVER EASTERN OKLAHOMA. THIS ADDITIONAL              
FORCING WILL OCCUR AT AROUND 03-05Z TONIGHT...IGNITING A CLUSTER OR             
SQUALL LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER NORTHERN OKLAHOMA AND EASTERN                 
KANSAS. THESE STORMS WILL TRACK INTO EXTREME SOUTHEAST KANSAS AND               
WESTERN MISSOURI AFTER MIDNIGHT.  AREAS ALONG AND WEST OF A LINE                
FROM CASSVILLE TO OSCEOLA WILL SUSTAIN THE GREATEST CHANCES OF                  
EXPERIENCING THIS ACTIVITY PRIOR TO 6AM. DUE TO EXTREME WIND SHEAR              
IN TONIGHTS ENVIRONMENT...LARGE HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF GOLF                     
BALLS...AND DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 70 MPH WILL OCCUR NEAR THE              
STRONGEST UPDRAFTS. SQUALL LINE TORNADOES CAN NOT BE RULED OUT ALONG            
THE LEADING EDGE OF THE SQUALL.                                                 
MODELS STILL INDICATE THAT AREAS ALONG AND EAST OF HIGHWAY 65 WILL              
REMAIN WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR HEADING INTO FRIDAYS DAY PERIOD.                  
THERE MAY BE A BRIEF WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR UPDRAFTS TO BECOME               
MORE DISCRETE IN NATURE OVER THE EASTERN OZARKS.  0-6KM SHEAR                   
VECTORS ASSUME AN ORIENTATION THATS MORE FAVORABLE FOR DISCRETE                 
CELLS BY 12-15Z.  THIS STILL REMAINS A SHORT TERM FORECAST                      
CHALLENGE...AND DEPENDS ON TWO VARIABLES.  ONE...HOW WILL                       
TONIGHT/FRIDAY MORNINGS CONVECTION AND CLOUD COVER DISTORT                      
INSTABILITY LEVELS. AND TWO...WILL THE COLD FRONT BECOME PROGRESSIVE            
ENOUGH TO SHIFT EAST OF THE OZARKS PRIOR TO ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT              
OF POSSIBLE DIURNAL INSTABILITY.                                                
AT ANY RATE...ALL PRECIPITATION SHOULD SHIFT EAST OF THE OZARKS BY              
FRIDAY MID AFTERNOON...SETTING UP A COOLER BUT DRY FORECAST FOR                 
FRIDAY EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.                                                   
LONG TERM (SATURDAY - WEDNESDAY)...                                             
SEASONAL AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE STILL EXPECTED FOR THE WEEKEND AND              
EARLY NEXT WEEK.  FLOW BECOMES NORTHWESTERLY IN THE WAKE OF TONIGHTS            
SYSTEM...AS HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE INCREASES.                             
RAIN CHANCES ENTER THE FORECAST BY TUESDAY...AS MEDIUM RANGE MODELS             
SUGGEST THAT AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGS INTO THE WESTERN CONUS.                 
THIS WILL CREATE A PATTERN FAVORABLE FOR MOISTURE TO RETURN.                    
CRAMER                                                                          
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
FOR THE 06Z TAF PACKAGE...LINE OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS                
HAS DEVELOPED AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT IN EAST KANSAS AND CENTRAL                  
OKLAHOMA. AT 0530Z...THUNDERSTORMS EXTEND FROM NEAR KTOP TO KUKL                
TO KPNC TO KCHK AND IS TRACKING EAST AROUND 30 KNOTS.                           
THUNDERSTORMS WILL EFFECT AERODROMES AFTER 07Z WITH REDUCTION OF                
VISIBILITIES AND CEILINGS TO IFR POSSIBLE. SHOWERS AND                          
THUNDERSTORMS WILL END BY 12Z AS THE FRONT MOVES EAST THROUGH THE               
TERMINALS AND CEILINGS GRADUALLY RAISE TO VFR.                                  
ANGLE                                                                           
&&                                                                              
.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
MO...NONE.                                                                      
KS...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</pre> mo                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO                           
1237 AM CDT FRI MAY 2 2008                                                      
.UPDATE...                                                                      
CONVECTION HAS TEMPORARILY UNDERGONE A FAIRLY RAPID DOWNTURN IN                 
INTENSITY AS OUTFLOW FROM PREVIOUS CONVECTION HAS PUSHED SOUTH AND              
CREATED A MESO WARM FRONT ARCING FROM RANDOLPH COUNTY TO LINN AND               
ANDERSON COUNTIES IN KANSAS...EFFECTIVELY UNDERCUTTING UPDRAFT                  
COLUMNS WITH MORE STABILIZED RAIN COOLED AIR. IN ADDITION...STORMS              
PROPAGATING ACROSS NERN MISSOURI ARE BEGINNING TO OUTRUN THE                    
INSTABILITY AXIS AND SUPPORTIVE SHEAR...LEADING TO MORE PULSING                 
CONVECTION. HOWEVER...RAPID UPSCALE CONVECTIVE GROWTH NOW OCCURRING             
ALONG THE COLD FRONT (WHICH HAS OVERTAKEN THE DRYLINE) IN AN AREA OF            
EXTREME UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE AND DEEP LAYER VERTICAL MOTION.                  
MLCAPES AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT REMAIN 1500-2000 J/KG WITH 0-6 KM               
SHEAR VALUES IN EXCESS OF 50 KT ADVECTING ACROSS THE BOUNDARY. WARM             
SECTOR IS CURRENTLY BEING REINVIGORATED BY A H8 40-50KT LLJ WITH                
+13C DEWPOINTS...WHICH SHOULD BEGIN TO LIFT THE MESO WARM FRONTAL               
BOUNDARY NWD WITH TIME. THE QUICKLY DEVELOPING LINEAR CONVECTION                
SHOULD SLOWLY MOVE EAST OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS IN RELATION TO              
THE MIDLEVEL LOW CENTER PUNCHING EWD. ELEMENTS WITHIN THE LINE WILL             
PROPAGATE NORTHEAST...AND ALTHOUGH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS                
WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREATS WITH THE LINE...LOW LEVEL SHEAR (0-1 KM             
SRH 200-300 M2/S2 AND 0-3KM SRH 300-400 M2/S2) WOULD SUPPORT                    
EMBEDDED SUPERCELLULAR AND QLCS STRUCTURE WITH POSSIBLE BOW HEAD OR             
INFLOW NOTCH TORNADOES...AS ALREADY HAS BEEN OBSERVED FROM KICT                 
RADAR. INITIAL NRN MORE ISOLATED SUPERCELL ACROSS FAR NERN KANSAS               
MAINLY A HAIL THREAT...WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED LINEAR FEATURE                   
ENTERING ERN KANSAS CWA COUNTIES BETWEEN 1 AM AND 130 AM.                       
21                                                                              
...PREVIOUS UPDATE...                                                           
/510 PM CDT FRI MAY 1 2008/                                                     
WATCHING POTENTIAL OF STORM DEVELOPMENT LATE THIS AFTERNOON IN                  
MOISTURE AXIS THAT CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA                    
NORTHEAST ALONG KANSAS AND MISSOURI BORDER. 21Z TOPEKA SOUNDING                 
WHICH WAS WEST OF THIS AXIS...SHOWING CAPPING HAS GREATLY ERODED                
JUST WEST OF THE MOISTURE AXIS AND VISIBLE SATELLITE SHOWING                    
TOWERING CU DEVELOPING ALONG WITH WESTERN EDGE OF THIS MOISTURE                 
AXIS...WHERE CAP IS WEAKENING. IMPRESSIVE SURFACE HEATING HAS                   
OCCURRED THIS AFTERNOON...WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 80S               
AND LOW AND MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE IMPRESSIVE AS WELL...WHICH                
WOULD POINT TO STRONG UP DRAFTS IS STORMS CAN DEVELOP. LIMITING                 
FACTOR REMAINS THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS STILL              
STRUGGLING IN THE LOWER 60S UP INTO WESTERN AREAS. STILL GOOD ENOUGH            
TO SUPPORT INDIVIDUAL STORMS...AND WITH BULK SHEAR VALUES IN THE 40             
KT RANGE...WOULD BE GOOD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT                
WITH LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND ISOLATED TORNADOES.                        
FOR WARNING PURPOSES...WITH FREEZING LEVELS RUNNING IN THE 11-12K FT            
RANGE...WOULD EXPECT ONE INCH HAIL WITH 50 DBZ TO 30K FT AND 60 DBZ             
IN THE 25K FT RANGE.  VILS AROUND 50 WOULD ALSO POINT TO 1 INCH                 
HAIL.                                                                           
DURING THE LATE EVENING HOURS...MAY SEE DRY LINE RETREATING BACK                
TOWARD THE COLD FRONT AND A SURFACE LOW THAT IS CURRENTLY DEEPENING             
IN THE OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE...AND IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO SOUTH                  
CENTRAL KANSAS BY 03Z. AS THE UPPER LOW EMERGES INTO THE PLAINS                 
TONIGHT...ITS ADDED DYNAMICS SHOULD CONTRIBUTE TO ADDITIONAL                    
DEVELOPMENT OF STORMS ALONG THIS FRONT...WITH MORE HEAVY RAINFALL               
POSSIBLE INTO THE AREA OVERNIGHT.                                               
PC                                                                              
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION...                                                             
/419 PM CDT FRI MAY 1 2008/                                                     
MAIN FOCUS OF THE FORECAST CONTINUES TO BE WITH STORM DEVELOPMENT               
AND SEVERE POTENTIAL FROM THIS EVENING INTO FRIDAY MORNING.                     
TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED QUITE SUBSTANTIALLY TODAY AHEAD OF THE                 
SURFACE LOW NOW CENTERED OVER EAST CENTRAL NEBRASKA. DEWPOINTS HAVE             
RECOVERED SOME TODAY...WITH SCATTERED READINGS IN THE LOWER 60S                 
ACROSS EASTERN KANSAS AND WESTERN MISSOURI. WINDS WERE RATHER STRONG            
THIS AFTERNOON...WITH GUSTS INTO THE UPPER 30 MPH RANGE...BUT HAVE              
REMAINED BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA. THEREFORE...HAVE CANCELLED THE                
WIND ADVISORY.                                                                  
A SUBSTANTIAL CAP HAS KEPT CONVECTION FROM INITIATING THUS FAR.                 
MODEL INDICATIONS ARE THAT THE CAP IS WEAKENING THIS AFTERNOON...AND            
MAY BE BROKEN THIS EVENING MAINLY ALONG THE DRYLINE/COLD FRONT. HAVE            
BEEN WATCHING THE DRYLINE PUSH EAST TODAY...AND APPEARS TO HAVE                 
REACHED RIGHT TO THE MISSOURI BORDER WITH NEBRASKA...SOUTH TO                   
EMPORIA AND INTO NORTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA. THE EDGE OF THE SURFACE                
MOIST AXIS/PSEUDO DRYLINE IS EXPECTED TO PUSH A BIT FURTHER EAST                
THIS EVENING. THE RUC FORECAST MODEL INDICATES THE DRYLINE MAY REACH            
A CLARINDA TO KANSAS CITY LINE BEFORE RETROGRADING SOME AFTER 00Z.              
THIS SOLUTION MAY BE REASONABLE...AS THE PUSH OF THE UPPER JET MAX              
WITH THE MAIN PART OF THE UPPER LOW MAY WHAT IS NEEDED LATER                    
TONIGHT. THE NAM HAS BEEN THE FASTER OF THE SOLUTIONS TODAY WITH THE            
COLD FRONT/DRYLINE PROGRESSION...WHILE THE GFS HAS BEEN ON THE                  
SLOWER END. THE SREF AND RUC HAVE BEEN MORE IN THE MIDDLE. THE                  
LATEST 18Z NAM LOOKS MORE REASONABLE THAN ITS FASTER 12Z                        
COUNTERPART. STILL NOT SURE THAT ANY ONE MODEL IS FAR SUPERIOR TODAY.           
THE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER EAST CENTRAL NEBRASKA WILL                 
CONTINUE TO OCCLUDE TONIGHT...WHILE A SECOND SURFACE LOW STARTS TO              
PROGRESS EASTWARD FROM THE PANHANDLE REGION. THE SURFACE FRONTAL                
BOUNDARY BETWEEN THESE TWO LOW PRESSURE CENTERS WILL PUSH SLOWLY                
EAST INTO THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT...AND EVENTUALLY OVERTAKE THE               
DRYLINE LATER TONIGHT.                                                          
AS FOR CONVECTIVE INITIATION...AM SEEING SOME SIGNS OF BETTER                   
VERTICAL CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT NOW ACROSS THE FLINT HILLS IN SOUTHEAST            
KANSAS. EXPECTATIONS ARE THAT THUNDERSTORMS MAY FIRE FIRST IN THIS              
AREA WHERE THE CAP IS EXPECTED TO BE BROKEN BY LATE AFTERNOON.                  
ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT NEAR THE DRY LINE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD                   
NORTHEAST INTO THE FORECAST AREA...FROM EAST CENTRAL KANSAS NORTH               
AND EAST INTO WESTERN MISSOURI FROM MID TO LATE EVENING. SUPERCELLS             
WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING...WITH THUNDERSTORMS THEN EXPECTED TO             
EVOLVE MORE INTO A LINE OF STORMS AS THE FRONT STARTS TO MOVE ACROSS            
THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. THE PRIMARY SEVERE              
THREATS WITH THE STORMS WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING STRAIGHT                
LINE WINDS...BUT THERE IS ALSO AN ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT.                      
THE FRONT WILL PUSH RATHER SLOWLY EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA                 
TONIGHT...SO CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN ACROSS PORTIONS OF                
CENTRAL MISSOURI INTO THE MORNING HOURS TOMORROW. THERE ARE SOME                
CONCERNS THAT WITH THE SLOW MOVEMENT OF THE FEATURES THAT                       
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS COULD EXCEED ONE INCH MAINLY ACROSS CENTRAL               
MISSOURI...EVEN THOUGH INDIVIDUAL STORMS SHOULD MOVE QUICKLY.                   
HEADWATER GUIDANCE IS JUST LESS THAN AN INCH AND A HALF IN THAT                 
AREA. WILL HAVE TO KEEP ALERT IF DURATION OF PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO             
BE LONG ENOUGH THAT WE MIGHT HAVE FLOODING CONCERNS.                            
NOT MANY CHANGES MADE FOR THE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY TIME FRAME...WITH            
COOLER TEMPERATURES MOVING IN AND SOME LOW END PRECIPITATION CHANCES            
FOR PRECIPITATION WRAPPING AROUND THE BACKSIDE OF THE DEPARTING                 
SYSTEM.                                                                         
STOFLET                                                                         
LONG RANGE (SUNDAY-THURSDAY)...                                                 
EARLY PART OF EXTENDED APPEARS RATHER TRANQUIL AS WEAK UPPER LEVEL              
RIDGING BUILDS ACROSS CENTRAL PLAINS. RIDGING EXPECTED TO HOLD AT               
LEAST THROUGH MID-WEEK WITH SPLIT FLOW KEEPING SOUTHERN STREAM                  
QUASI-CUTOFF LOW ANCHORED OVER BAJA. NAEFS PESSIMISTIC IN LIFTING               
LOW TOO QUICKLY WITH THE BULK OF THE MEMBERS DEPICTING UPPER LOW                
REMAINING OVER BAJA THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THOUGH OPERATIONAL GFS                  
STARTS LIFTING SYSTEM INTO PLAINS BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. 00Z EC SIMILAR            
IN TIMING WITH 12Z GFS...BUT THERE APPEARS TO BE ENOUGH VARIANCE IN             
THE ENSEMBLE MEMBERS TO QUESTION BOTH MODELS SOLUTIONS.  GIVEN                  
EXPECTED SLOWER MOVEMENT OF POTENTIAL WEATHER MAKER...BACKED OFF ON             
PRECIPITATION CHANCES IN THE MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT TIME                  
PERIOD...BUT MAINTAINED LOW CHANCES POPS WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.               
THE EVENTUAL SYSTEM THAT DOES EJECT INTO PLAINS WILL BE RATHER                  
POTENT...BUT MIXED SIGNALS ON WHETHER IT WILL BRING HEAVY RAIN OR               
SEVERE THREAT GIVEN DIFFERENCES IN UPPER LOW TRACK.                             
AS FAR AS TEMPERATURES...SURFACE RIDGING AND LOW LEVEL EAST TO                  
SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES BELOW SEASONAL              
NORMALS EARLY IN THE PERIOD. MAY BE A LITTLE OPTIMISTIC WITH                    
TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY...HOWEVER STRONGER INSOLATION SHOULD HELP TO             
MODIFIED COOLER AIRMASS THAT LINGERS WITH SURFACE HIGH. BY                      
TUESDAY...EXPECT TO SEE TEMPERATURES CLIMBED BACK TOWARD NORMAL BY              
TUESDAY AS HEIGHTS BUILD AND SURFACE FLOW BECOMES MORE                          
SOUTHERLY...THOUGH INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL                 
LIMIT THE EXTEND OF WARM-UP.  OVERALL..USED A BLEND OF GRIDDED MOS              
AND ECMWF SURFACE TEMPERATURES FOR TEMPERATURE TRENDS. DEPENDING ON             
MODE OF PRECIPITATION EVOLUTION ON THURSDAY...MAY NEED TO LOWER                 
TEMPERATURES A CATEGORY.                                                        
24                                                                              
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
FOR THE 06Z TAFS...IMMEDIATE THREAT IS TIMING OF SQUALL LINE MOVING             
ACROSS NORTHEAST KANSAS. LOCAL ARW WRF HANDLING CONVECTION FAIRLY               
WELL...WITH NORTHERN END OF LINE MOVING INTO THE KSTJ AND KMCI TAFS             
BETWEEN 0630-0700 UTC AND INTO THE KMKC TAF BETWEEN 07 AND 08 UTC.              
THE MOST INTENSE PART OF THE LINE LIKELY WILL PASS SOUTH OF KMCI AND            
KSTJ...WITH KMKC EXPERIENCING STRONGER PORTION OF LINE. BASED ON                
CIGS ACROSS NORTHEAST KANSAS...LOWERED CIGS INTO MVFR RANGE AS A                
RESULT OF +TSRA AND ADDED GUSTS UP TO 45KT...THOUGH WOULD  NOT BE               
SURPRISED TO SEE GREATER THAN 50KTS. AFTER LINE CLEARS...AM A LITTLE            
MORE OPTIMISTIC WITH CIG RECOVERY COUNTER TO MET AND MAV GUIDANCE               
WHICH KEEP MVFR CIGS THROUGH AT LEAST MID-MORNING. BEYOND 15                    
UTC...THE ONLY FORECAST CONCERN WILL BE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS                
WITH POTENTIAL GUSTS TO 30KTS.                                                  
24                                                                              
&&                                                                              
.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
MO...NONE.                                                                      
KS...NONE.                                                                      
$$                                                                              
</pre> mo                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE                                        
319 AM CDT FRI MAY 2 2008                                                       
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
AT 00Z...SFC CYCLONE WAS BEGINNING TO OCCLUDE OVER THE MISSOURI                 
RIVER VALLEY REGION...WITH SFC LOW /AROUND 934 MB/ LOCATED JUST                 
SOUTHEAST OF PIR BY 08Z. THIS LOW IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT SOUTH AND                
THEN EAST INTO EASTERN NEB THROUGH FRIDAY. THIS PROCESS WILL OCCUR              
IN CONJUNCTION WITH STRONG 100 KT 250 MB JET MAX EXITING TROUGH                 
BASIN LOCATED OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. DRY AIR HAS INFILTRATED                 
THE EASTERN SIDE OF MID LVL LOW POSITIONED OVER FAR WESTERN                     
NEB...WHICH HAS LIMITED PRECIP DEVELOPMENT ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA.              
HOWEVER...AS MID LVL LOW TRANSLATES EASTWARD ACROSS NEB ON                      
FRIDAY...MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO WRAP WEST AND SOUTH AROUND THE                 
MID LVL CIRCULATION...WITH A TROWAL ENTERING NORTHWEST NEB. THIS                
WILL FAVOR THE REDEVELOPMENT OF PRECIPITATION FRIDAY MORNING INTO               
THE AFTERNOON.                                                                  
&&                                                                              
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
GFS AND NAM SHOW SUBTLE DIFFERENCES REGARDING THE LOCATION OF THE               
SFC LOW LOCATED OVER SOUTH CENTRAL SD. BASED ON LATEST SFC                      
OBS...THE NAM APPEARS SLIGHTLY TOO FAR EAST WITH THE PLACEMENT OF               
THIS FEATURE...WHILE THE GFS IS CLOSER TO REALITY /AND IS                       
SUPPORTED BY LATEST RUC AND ECMWF/. THUS...WILL FAVOR THE GFS                   
THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HRS WITH PLACEMENT OF QPF/WX. AS SFC LOW                    
SLIDES SOUTH AND THEN EAST INTO EASTERN NEB...INCREASING SFC                    
PRESSURE GRADIENT AND MOMENTUM TRANSFER FROM ABOVE WILL LEAD TO                 
STRONG WINDS...WITH GUSTS UP TO 40 KT. MEANWHILE...MAIN SFC LOW                 
OVER IA WILL BEGIN LIFTING NORTHEAST TOWARD THE GRT LAKES REGION                
THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. LARGE SCALE ASCENT AND TROWAL WILL SHIFT                  
FROM NORTHWESTERN NEB FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO SOUTHERN/SOUTH CENTRAL              
NEB FRIDAY NIGHT. HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION SHOULD OCCUR AS THESE                  
FEATURES TRANSLATE ACROSS THE STATE. GFS INDICATES DRY AIR WILL                 
REMAIN OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA DURING MOST OF THE DAY                  
FRIDAY...THUS EXPECT LOWEST POPS TO INITIALLY BE LOCATED EAST OF A              
VTN TO BBW LINE. GFS MAY BE SLIGHTLY TOO SLOW WITH COLD AIR                     
SLIDING SOUTHEAST INTO THE NORTHWESTERN QUADRANT OF CWA DURING                  
FRIDAY...GIVEN LOWER DEWPOINTS ARE SITUATED IN SOUTHWEST                        
SD...WHICH COULD FILTER SOUTHEAST AND FAVOR LOWER WET BULB                      
TEMPERATURES. IF THIS SCENARIO PLAYS OUT...TRANSITION TO ALL SNOW               
IN SHERIDAN/WESTERN CHERRY COUNTIES SHOULD TAKE PLACE BY 12Z                    
FRIDAY /WHICH APPEARS LIKELY GIVEN THAT THE TRANSITION TO ALL SNOW              
HAS ALREADY TAKEN PLACE ACROSS MOST OF THE WESTERN PANHANDLE/. A                
15 HR SNOWFALL EVENT OVER FAR NORTHWEST CWA APPEARS                             
POSSIBLE...WHICH COULD YIELD UP TO 6 INCHES OF SNOW. WILL CONTINUE              
WITH WINTER STORM WARNING IN SHERIDAN/CHERRY COUNTIES...WITH                    
POTENTIAL UPGRADE TO BLIZZARD WARNING NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION                   
/WILL CONTINUE TO EVALUATE/.                                                    
SNOW WILL SPREAD SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE                          
CWA FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH 3 TO 6 HR DURATION EVENT FOR MOST                       
LOCATIONS...PRODUCING 1/2 TO 1 INCH OF ACCUMULATION FOR REMAINDER               
OF THE FCST AREA. MODELS INDICATE THAT SKIES WILL CLEAR TOWARD                  
SUNRISE OVER MOST OF THE CWA...WHICH STILL SEEMS TO SUPPORT COLD                
MAV/MET GUIDANCE /PARTICULARLY OVER THE NORTHWEST WHERE SNOW COVER              
APPEARS MOST LIKELY/. NEXT TROUGH APPROACHES THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S.              
SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH MID LVL HEIGHTS RISING OVER THE CENTRAL                     
PLAINS. CONTINUED TO BUMP TEMPERATURES UP A FEW DEGREES GOING INTO              
THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK AS SOUTHERLY LOW LVL FLOW INCREASES                 
ACROSS THE REGION IN RESPONSE TO DEVELOPING LEE TROUGH. INCREASING              
INSTABILITY BY MONDAY EVENING SUPPORTS THUNDERSTORMS ALONG SFC                  
TROUGH AXIS OVER THE PANHANDLE...AND THEN SPREADING EASTWARD                    
ACROSS THE CWA MONDAY NIGHT /HIGHEST PROBABILITY MAY RESIDE OVER                
SOUTHWESTERN/SOUTH CENTRAL NEB WHERE NOSE OF 30-50 KT LLJ IS FCST               
BY GFS TO RESIDE/. NORTHERN STREAM S/W TROUGH BEGINS TO SWEEP                   
EAST ACROSS THE PLAINS ON TUESDAY /WHICH IS SUPPORTED BY 00Z                    
GFS/ECMWF/. HOWEVER...UNCERTAINTY IN TIMING OF THIS FEATURE                     
PRECLUDES ADDITIONAL CHANGES FOR DAYS 5 AND 6.                                  
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
FLIGHT CONDITIONS WILL WORSEN TODAY AS IFR CONDITIONS BECOME                    
WIDESPREAD. THE LARGE SLOW-MOVING STORM WILL DRIFT EAST ACROSS                  
NEBRASKA TODAY AND TONIGHT.                                                     
TODAY...                                                                        
WEST OF HIGHWAY 83...GENERALLY IFR CONDITIONS...WINDS 30025-35KT                
G45KT AND AREAS OF 1SM SN OVC008.                                               
EAST OF HIGHWAY 83...AREAS OF IFR...WINDS 30015G25KT                            
INCREASING TO 30025G35KT AND AREAS 3SM SHRA  BR OVC012.                         
TONIGHT...                                                                      
WEST OF HIGHWAY 83...CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR BY 06Z.                   
EAST OF HIGHWAY 83...SOME IMPROVEMENT...MAINLY AFTER 06Z.                       
&&                                                                              
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT /6 PM MDT/ THIS 
025-026-037-038-056>059-069>071.                                                
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT MDT TONIGHT FOR NEZ004-023-                 
024-094.                                                                        
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM 7 AM CDT THIS MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY                  
MORNING FOR NEZ005-006-008-009-025-026.                                         
SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM CDT /MIDNIGHT MDT/                    
SATURDAY FOR NEZ022-035-036.                                                    
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
GARNER/CDC                                                                      
</pre> ne                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM                                         
659 PM MDT FRI MAY 2 2008                                                       
.UPDATE...                                                                      
EXPANDED FREEZE WARNING FURTHER SOUTH AND WEST...AND EXTENDED IT                
UNTIL 9 AM MDT DUE TO THE STRENGTH OF THE COLD FRONT PENETRATING THE            
NORTHEAST PLAINS AND RECENT MODEL GUIDANCE. WE ARE SOMEWHAT                     
SKEPTICAL THAT SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF ROOSEVELT COUNTY WILL REACH                 
FREEZING AS WINDS MAY REMAIN SOMEWHAT BREEZY THERE UNTIL AFTER                  
SUNRISE. ALSO DROPPED TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES IN THE ALBUQUERQUE             
AREA BASED ON RECENT MODEL GUIDANCE AND THIS MORNINGS LOW                       
TEMPERATURE REPORTS. ANOTHER NIGHT OF FREEZING TEMPERATURES IS ON               
TAP FOR THE STATES LARGEST CITY...BUT A FREEZE WARNING IS NOT NEEDED            
IN ALBUQUERQUE BECAUSE THE AVERAGE LAST FREEZE FOR MUCH OF THE METRO            
AREA IS IN EARLY MAY. LASTLY...INCREASED WINDS FOR THIS EVENING IN              
THE NORTHEAST...AND DROPPED THE SMALL CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION...               
BASED ON RECENT OBSERVATION AND RADAR TRENDS.                                   
WILL ALLOW THE RED FLAG WARNING TO EXPIRE AT 7 PM MDT.  44                      
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION...                                                             
203 PM MDT FRI MAY 2 2008...700MB FLOW ALONG WITH SURFACE PRESSURE              
GRADIENT HAVE RELAXED CONSIDERABLY ACROSS NM TODAY. STRONGEST WINDS             
RESIDE IN AREAS ALONG AND TO THE EAST OF THE CENTRAL MTN CHAIN AS               
WELL AS IN FAVORED NW FLOW LOCATIONS SUCH AS KABQ AND KFMN. LATEST              
WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWS AN IMPRESSIVE DOUBLE BARREL UPPER                        
CIRCULATION       OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS STATES. SURFACE ANALYSIS              
SHOWS A 1005MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER OVER NE NEW MEXICO WITH A                    
SECONDARY BLAST OF COLD AIR HEADING SOUTH OUT OF EASTERN COLORADO.              
LATEST RUC13 ANALYSIS SHOWS A COLD FRONT WILL SURGE SOUTH ACROSS                
EASTERN NM THIS EVENING AS A 1030MB HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE               
CENTRAL ROCKIES. FREEZING TEMPERATURES ARE A VERY GOOD BET ACROSS               
MUCH      OF THE EASTERN PLAINS ALONG AND NORTH OF I40 SO WILL ISSUE            
A FREEZE WARNING ACROSS THE NE PLAINS. CONCERNED AGAIN ABOUT                    
FREEZING TEMPS AGAIN ACROSS THE ABQ METRO AREA TONIGHT HOWEVER                  
PRESENCE OF AN EAST WIND IN MET/MOS STATISTICAL NUMBERS BY 12Z                  
COMPLICATES MATTER SO WILL GO WITH ANOTHER SPS. CURRENT RED FLAG                
WARNING VERIFYING ACROSS MUCH OF THE SANDIA/MANZANO/GALLINAS                    
MOUNTAINS AND THE EAST CENTRAL PLAINS SO WILL LEAVE UNCHANGED                   
THROUGH 01Z.                                                                    
12Z MODEL SUITE IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT THAT A WEAK RIDGE/QUASI-                 
ZONAL FLOW WILL DEVELOP OVER THE SOUTHWEST CONUS CREATING DELIGHTFUL            
WEATHER FOR MOST OF THE STATE THIS WEEKEND. EXPECT SLIGHTLY BELOW               
NORMAL TEMPS SATURDAY AND SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS SUNDAY WITH               
LIGHT WINDS FOR MOST AND OCCASIONAL BREEZES IN THE EASTERN PLAINS               
SUNDAY. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A 560-565DM UPPER LOW DEVELOPING                
OFF THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COASTLINE SUNDAY. HOWEVER...THE 06Z                 
MREF/15Z SREF/00Z SUPERENSEMBLE SHOWS CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY                  
WITH THE EVOLUTION OF THE UPPER LOW ONCE IT DEVELOPS OFF THE BAJA.              
THE POSITION/STRENGTH OF MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW AHEAD OF THE UPPER                
LOW WILL GREATLY EFFECT THE LOCATION/STRENGTH OF THE SURFACE LEE                
TROUGH EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS MONDAY THROUGH               
WEDNESDAY. SINCE THIS RESULTS IN LOW CONFIDENCE WITH RESPECT TO                 
CHANCES OF SHOWERS/STORMS OVER THE STATE...AND SUBSEQUENT SEVERE                
WEATHER THREAT IN THE EAST...HAVE LEFT THE EXTENDED GUIDANCE                    
RELATIVELY UNCHANGED FOR NOW WITH WIDESPREAD ISOLD POPS.                        
GUYER                                                                           
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEW MEXICO              
THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. WINDS WILL GUST BETWEEN 25 TO 35KT THIS              
AFTERNOON FROM THE NORTHWEST PLATEAU INTO CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN              
AREAS OF THE STATE THROUGH EARLY EVENING. A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE            
TO PUSH SOUTH THROUGH THE EASTERN PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH                 
TONIGHT CAUSING NORTHERLY WINDS AROUND 20 KNOTS WITH LOCALLY GUSTY              
CONDITIONS FOR A BRIEF PERIOD DURING FRONTAL PASSAGE.                           
NEXT AVIATION DISCUSSION SCHEDULED FOR 09Z.                                     
&&                                                                              
.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM MDT SATURDAY FOR THE               
FOLLOWING ZONES...NMZ006-007-013.                                               
FREEZE WARNING FROM 3 AM MDT TO 9 AM MDT SATURDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING             
ZONES...NMZ012-018-020-021.                                                     
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
44                                                                              
</pre> nm                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM                                         
203 PM MDT FRI MAY 2 2008                                                       
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
700MB FLOW ALONG WITH SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT HAVE RELAXED                    
CONSIDERABLY ACROSS NM TODAY. STRONGEST WINDS RESIDE IN AREAS                   
ALONG AND TO THE EAST OF THE CENTRAL MTN CHAIN AS WELL AS IN                    
FAVORED NW FLOW LOCATIONS SUCH AS KABQ AND KFMN. LATEST WATER                   
VAPOR LOOP SHOWS AN IMPRESSIVE DOUBLE BARREL UPPER CIRCULATION                  
OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS STATES. SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A 1005MB                 
LOW PRESSURE CENTER OVER NE NEW MEXICO WITH A SECONDARY BLAST                   
OF COLD AIR HEADING SOUTH OUT OF EASTERN COLORADO. LATEST RUC13                 
ANALYSIS SHOWS A COLD FRONT WILL SURGE SOUTH ACROSS EASTERN NM                  
THIS EVENING AS A 1030MB HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE CENTRAL                  
ROCKIES. FREEZING TEMPERATURES ARE A VERY GOOD BET ACROSS MUCH                  
OF THE EASTERN PLAINS ALONG AND NORTH OF I40 SO WILL ISSUE A                    
FREEZE WARNING ACROSS THE NE PLAINS. CONCERNED AGAIN ABOUT                      
FREEZING TEMPS AGAIN ACROSS THE ABQ METRO AREA TONIGHT HOWEVER                  
PRESENCE OF AN EAST WIND IN MET/MOS STATISTICAL NUMBERS BY 12Z                  
COMPLICATES MATTER SO WILL GO WITH ANOTHER SPS. CURRENT RED FLAG                
WARNING VERIFYING ACROSS MUCH OF THE SANDIA/MANZANO/GALLINAS                    
MOUNTAINS AND THE EAST CENTRAL PLAINS SO WILL LEAVE UNCHANGED                   
THROUGH 01Z.                                                                    
12Z MODEL SUITE IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT THAT A WEAK RIDGE/QUASI-                 
ZONAL FLOW WILL DEVELOP OVER THE SOUTHWEST CONUS CREATING DELIGHTFUL            
WEATHER FOR MOST OF THE STATE THIS WEEKEND. EXPECT SLIGHTLY BELOW               
NORMAL TEMPS SATURDAY AND SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS SUNDAY WITH               
LIGHT WINDS FOR MOST AND OCCASIONAL BREEZES IN THE EASTERN PLAINS               
SUNDAY. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A 560-565DM UPPER LOW DEVELOPING                
OFF THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COASTLINE SUNDAY. HOWEVER...THE 06Z                 
MREF/15Z SREF/00Z SUPERENSEMBLE SHOWS CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY                  
WITH THE EVOLUTION OF THE UPPER LOW ONCE IT DEVELOPS OFF THE BAJA.              
THE POSITION/STRENGTH OF MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW AHEAD OF THE UPPER                
LOW WILL GREATLY EFFECT THE LOCATION/STRENGTH OF THE SURFACE LEE                
TROUGH EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS MONDAY THROUGH               
WEDNESDAY. SINCE THIS RESULTS IN LOW CONFIDENCE WITH RESPECT TO                 
CHANCES OF SHOWERS/STORMS OVER THE STATE...AND SUBSEQUENT SEVERE                
WEATHER THREAT IN THE EAST...HAVE LEFT THE EXTENDED GUIDANCE                    
RELATIVELY UNCHANGED FOR NOW WITH WIDESPREAD ISOLD POPS.                        
GUYER                                                                           
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEW MEXICO              
THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. WINDS WILL GUST BETWEEN 25 TO 35KT THIS              
AFTERNOON FROM THE NORTHWEST PLATEAU INTO CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN              
AREAS OF THE STATE THROUGH EARLY EVENING. A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE            
TO PUSH SOUTH THROUGH THE EASTERN PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH                 
TONIGHT CAUSING NORTHERLY WINDS AROUND 20 KNOTS WITH LOCALLY GUSTY              
CONDITIONS FOR A BRIEF PERIOD DURING FRONTAL PASSAGE.                           
NEXT AVIATION DISCUSSION SCHEDULED FOR 09Z.                                     
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
FARMINGTON......................  26  70  35  78 /   0   0   0   0              
GALLUP..........................  19  70  28  76 /   0   0   0   0              
GRANTS..........................  19  70  27  77 /   0   0   0   0              
GLENWOOD........................  42  79  45  82 /   0   0   0   0              
CHAMA...........................  15  58  23  67 /   0   0   0   5              
LOS ALAMOS......................  26  64  30  73 /   0   0   0   0              
RED RIVER.......................  20  50  35  59 /   0   0   0   5              
TAOS............................  19  62  26  72 /   0   0   0   5              
SANTA FE........................  27  64  27  74 /   0   0   0   0              
SANTA FE AIRPORT................  29  67  36  76 /   0   0   0   0              
ESPANOLA........................  30  69  39  79 /   0   0   0   0              
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS.............  35  72  46  80 /   0   0   0   0              
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY..............  30  74  43  82 /   0   0   0   0              
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS...........  33  70  43  80 /   0   0   0   0              
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA...........  33  72  43  81 /   0   0   0   0              
SOCORRO.........................  38  76  43  83 /   0   0   0   0              
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST.........  24  64  39  75 /   0   0   0   0              
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA...............  28  67  40  78 /   0   0   0   0              
CARRIZOZO.......................  37  71  48  80 /   0   0   0  10              
RUIDOSO.........................  30  64  46  72 /   0   0   0  10              
RATON...........................  23  63  30  75 /   5   0   0   5              
LAS VEGAS.......................  26  63  35  74 /   0   0   0   0              
ROY.............................  28  62  40  74 /   0   0   0   5              
CLAYTON.........................  29  62  39  77 /   5   0   0  10              
SANTA ROSA......................  34  69  41  81 /   0   0   0  10              
TUCUMCARI.......................  32  70  42  81 /   0   0   0  10              
FORT SUMNER.....................  34  70  41  81 /   0   0   0  10              
CLOVIS..........................  35  69  40  78 /   0   0   0  10              
PORTALES........................  33  70  39  79 /   0   0   0  10              
ROSWELL.........................  41  73  44  80 /   0   0   0  10              
&&                                                                              
.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 7 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING                  
ZONES...NMZ107-108.                                                             
FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 7 AM MDT SATURDAY FOR THE               
FOLLOWING ZONES...NMZ006-007-013.                                               
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
GUYER/01                                                                        
</pre> nm                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY                                          
241 PM EDT FRI MAY 2 2008                                                       
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
THE COMBINED EFFECTS OF A WARM FRONT IN THE VICINITY...AND A                    
SLOWLY APPROACHING COLD FRONT FROM THE WEST...WILL KEEP THE THREAT              
OF SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEKEND. A GRADUAL               
DRYING TREND IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN EARLY NEXT WEEK.                              
&&                                                                              
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...                                                 
UPDATED AS OF 11 AM...                                                          
SFC WMFNT LOOKS TO BE SOMEWHERE ACRS WRN NY/PA WITH AN ADDN/L SFC               
BOUNDARY EXTENDING ALONG SRN SHORE OF LK ONTARIO UP INTO THE                    
ADIRONDACKS. A FEW SHOWERS OCCURRING ACRS THE FINGER LKS/MOHAWK                 
VALLEY IN CONJUNCTION WITH WK BNDRY WITH MORE WIDESPREAD AREA OF                
SHOWERS/ISOLD THUNDER OVR NE OH/NW PA. THIS IS OCCURRING IN VICINITY            
OF SFC WMFNT AND IN AREA OF ENHANCED H8 JET. WV IMAGERY AND RUC                 
ANALYSIS INDICATES POSSIBLE WK S/WV ALSO EMBEDDED IN FLOW HELPING               
SPARK OFF THIS AREA OF SHOWERS.                                                 
MODEL FCSTS INDICATE THIS WV/H8 JET WILL WEAKEN AS IT MVS EAST                  
THIS AFTN...ALTHO LOCATIONS ACROSS THE NW CWA MAY SEE BETTER CHC                
FOR SHOWERS CLOSER TO DYNAMICS OF FRONTAL BOUNDARY/UL FEATURES.                 
TEMPS ARE RISING INTO THE 50 ACROSS THE WRN ZONES AND INTO THE 60S              
AS CLOSE AS THE ALLEGHENY PLATEAU WHERE WMFNT IS BEGINNING TO FLEX              
ITS MUSCLE. STILL SOME QUESTION AS TO HOW MUCH THIS FRONT WIL MV                
INTO THE AREA.                                                                  
HV NOT TOUCHED FCST MAXES FOR THIS AFTN WITH UNCERTAINTY AND                    
SIGNIFICANT AMNT OF CLD CVR IN PLACE. RH PROGS INDICATE                         
POSSIBILITY OF SOME DRYING THIS AFTN ACRS THE SOUTH SO MAY SEE                  
TEMPS EASILY INTO THE 60S TODAY. THIS MAY HELP SPARK OFF A FEW                  
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTN...BUT MODEL SNDGS INDICATE MARGINAL LAPSE               
RATES UNTIL LATER IN THE DAY WITH SOME COOLING ALOFT.                           
THUS...HV RMVD THUNDER CHCS UNTIL AFTR 18Z AND AT THIS POINT HV                 
DROPPED CHCS TO SLIGHT. HV ALSO LOWERED POPS ACRS THE BOARD...WITH              
BEST CHCS OVR THE FINGER LAKES BUT STILL BLO 60%. WILL CONTINUE TO              
MONITOR TEMP TRENDS...WHICH WILL HV IMPACT ON POTENTIAL                         
INSTABILITY FOR THIS AFTN. UPDATED GRIDS AND TEXT PRODUCTS ARE ON               
THE STREET.                                                                     
PREV DISCUSSION BELOW...                                                        
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE MOVING EASTWARD, OUT OF THE              
FORECAST AREA. DECENT LAYER OF INSTABILITY DEVELOPED NEAR THE WARM              
FRONT, AS INDICATED BY LAPSE RATES AND K-INDICES. WIDELY SCATTERED              
ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED THROUGH LATE MORNING.                                      
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...                                        
WARM FRONT WILL HANG NEAR FORECAST AREA FOR MUCH OF THIS PERIOD.                
CONTINUED WARM ADVECTION WILL PUSH TEMPS INTO THE 60S, ESPECIALLY               
ON SATURDAY.                                                                    
KEPT WITH THEME OF FORECASTING POPS DRIER THAN MODEL FORECASTS.                 
THERE JUST IS NOT A WHOLE LOT OF ACTIVITY VERIFYING NEAR/WITHIN                 
THE WARM SECTOR. HAVE ADDED A CHC FOR A THUNDERSTORM TODAY, AS                  
LAPSE RATES CONTINUE TO INDICATE SOME POTENTIAL CONVECTION.                     
GRANTED, LAPSE RATES DO NOT CHANGE MUCH THROUGH NEXT 36-48H, SO                 
COULD HAVE ADDED THUNDER TO ALL PERIODS. BUT FELT THAT WOULD BE                 
OVERKILL GIVEN THE SLIGHT CHANCE EACH 12-HOUR WINDOW.                           
SATURDAY CONTINUES TO LOOK LIKE THE MOST INTERESTING DAY FORECAST               
WISE. NAM AND GFS EACH FORECAST OUR REGION TO BE ON THE CUSP OF                 
THE WARM SECTOR, ESPECIALLY SOUTHWESTERN FA. HOWEVER OPINIONS VARY              
AS TO HOW MUDDY THE WARM SECTOR WILL BE. APPRECIABLE SUNSHINE                   
COMBINED WITH +10C TO +12C 850H TEMPS WILL SUPPORT 70S WITH EASE.               
AM STICKING TO CLOUDIER SCENARIO FOR THIS PACKAGE, WHICH INCLUDES               
A SWATH OF UPPER 60S UP THE LAKE PLAIN AND LOWER 60S EAST OF I-81.              
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...                                     
GENERALLY USED HPC GUIDANCE THRU THE PERIOD WHICH USED BLEND OF                 
ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN AND OPERATIONAL ECMWF. BLOCKING PATTERN OVER                
THE NORTH ATLANTIC WITH CLOSED LOW THAT DEVELOPS OFF COAST OF NOVA              
SCOTIA. WEAK S/W MOVING THRU UPPER FLOW MAY BRING SMALL CHC FOR                 
SHRA ON TUESDAY INTO WEDS...BEFORE UPPER RIDGE PUSHES EAST FOR                  
WHAT LOOKS LIKE MAINLY DRY DAYS THURS AND FRI.                                  
TEMPS THRU THIS PERIOD LOOKS TO BE NEAR NORMAL...WITH HIGHS IN THE              
LOW TO MID 60S AND MINS GENERALLY IN THE LOW TO MID 40S.                        
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...                                     
CEILINGS HAVE IMPROVED TO VFR THIS AFTN, WITH EXCEPTION OF RME                  
WHERE MVFR STILL PERSISTENT WITH LGT SHRA IN THE AREA.                          
ELSEWHERE...COULD SEE A HIT AND MISS SHRA OR SPRINKLE AT ANY OF                 
THE OTHER SITES, BUT WILL BE LGT AND BRIEF.                                     
MVFR CONDITIONS WILL DOMINATE TONIGHT WITH WARM FRONT IN THE                    
VICINITY AND ANOTHER SURGE OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. COULD EVEN SEE                
SOME IFR CEILINGS OVERNIGHT, ESP AT HIGHER ELEVATION SITES. BEST                
CHC FOR ANY SHRA ACTIVITY ACROSS THE NORTH AT SYR AND RME. STILL                
PLENTY OF MOISTURE AROUND IN THE MORNING, SO CONTINUED WITH MVFR.               
SE WINDS THIS AFTN AT 10 KTS OR LESS...CONTINUE TONIGHT AND INTO                
SATURDAY.                                                                       
OUTLOOK...                                                                      
.SATURDAY NGT...APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL BRING BEST CHC FOR                  
SHOWERS AND VISBY/CEILING RESTRICTIONS SATURDAY EVENING AND INTO                
THE OVERNIGHT.                                                                  
.SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...IMPROVEMENT TO VFR DURING THE AFTERNOON               
SUNDAY AS FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES EAST OF THE FA. HIGH PRESSURE                  
BRINGS FAIR WEATHER THROUGH TUESDAY.                                            
.WEDNESDAY...NEXT FRONT APPROACHES WITH CHC FOR SHRA, POSSIBLE RESTRICTIONS.    
&&                                                                              
.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
PA...NONE.                                                                      
NY...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SYNOPSIS...DJP                                                                  
NEAR TERM...PVB                                                                 
SHORT TERM...DJP                                                                
LONG TERM...JML                                                                 
AVIATION...JML                                                                  
</pre> ny                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH                                           
1005 PM EDT SAT MAY 3 2008                                                      
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
A COLD FRONT ALONG THE OHIO AND PENNSYLVANIA BORDER WILL MOVE TO                
THE EAST COAST BY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAIN                
WILL BEGIN BUILDING INTO THE AREA ON SUNDAY AND THEN MOVE EAST                  
ACROSS THE REGION ON MONDAY. A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTHEAST                   
ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL THEN SWEEP EAST                
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA ON WEDNESDAY.                                          
&&                                                                              
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...                                       
COLD FRONT APPEARS TO BE ALONG THE OH/PA BORDER AND SHOULD BE                   
EAST OF FORECAST AREA BY MIDNIGHT. A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS REMAIN               
OVER NW PA ZONES AND THESE ALSO SHOULD BE GONE NEXT COUPLE OF                   
HOURS. OTHER SHOWERS CURRENTLY OVER SOUTHERN LOWER MI BUT LATEST                
RUC KEEPS THESE N OF LAKE ERIE OVERNIGHT. STILL COULD BE SOME MORE              
LIGHT SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES E OF KCLE OVERNIGHT AS COLDER AIR                    
ARRIVES ALOFT. WILL PUT LOW POPS IN FOR NE OH AND NW PA OVERNIGHT.              
CLEARING CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN. EXTRAPOLATION OF                
THIS CLEARING PUTS IT AT KTOL AROUND 07Z. WILL ADD BECOMING PARTLY              
CLOUDY TO WESTERN GROUPS FOR LATE TONIGHT. ONLY OTHER CHANGE WILL               
BE TO NUDGE TEMPS DOWN A TAD IN THE WEST.                                       
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...                      
HIGH PRESSURE BEGIN BUILDING IN ON SUNDAY AND WILL REMAIN OVER THE              
AREA INTO MONDAY. PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES TOMORROW AFTERNOON.              
LITTLE COOLER THAN NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 50S FAR                  
EAST TO NEAR 60 IN THE WEST. WEAK COLD FRONT DROP SOUTH INTO THE                
AREA MONDAY NIGHT LIFTING BACK NORTH AS WARM FRONT TUESDAY WITH A               
COLD FRONT THEN APPROACHING LATE TUESDAY NIGHT. COULD BE SOME                   
SHOWERS WITH THE FRONT MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY BUT WITH THE FRONT              
BEING RATHER WEAK AND RIDGING ACROSS IT KEPT POPS AT 20 PCT OR                  
LESS. AFTER BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...A               
SLIGHT WARM UP WILL PUSH TEMPERATURES BACK TO NEAR NORMAL. HIGHS IN             
THE 60S ON MONDAY...UPPER 60S AND AROUND 70 ON TUESDAY.&&                       
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...                                      
LOW PRESSURE AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO BE SOMEWHERE                 
NEAR THE AREA ON WED SO WILL CONTINUE CHANCE OF SHRA WHILE BUMPING              
UP THE POP A BIT MORE. ANOTHER MORE STRONGER LOW SHOULD THEN MOVE               
UP THE OHIO VALLEY THU THROUGH FRI MAINTAINING REASONING FOR SHRA               
CHC TO STAY IN FORECAST. GFS LOOKS A LITTLE SLOW IN MOVING LOW OFF              
EAST COAST SO WILL SHOOT FOR DRY WEATHER LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH              
SAT. TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL TEND TO RUN A LITTLE BELOW                   
NORMAL.                                                                         
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...                                      
LOW PRESSURE AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO BE SOMEWHERE                 
NEAR THE AREA ON WED SO WILL CONTINUE CHANCE OF SHRA WHILE BUMPING              
UP THE POP A BIT MORE. ANOTHER MORE STRONGER LOW SHOULD THEN MOVE               
UP THE OHIO VALLEY THU THROUGH FRI MAINTAINING REASONING FOR SHRA               
CHC TO STAY IN FORECAST. GFS LOOKS A LITTLE SLOW IN MOVING LOW OFF              
EAST COAST SO WILL SHOOT FOR DRY WEATHER LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH              
SAT. TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL TEND TO RUN A LITTLE BELOW                   
NORMAL.                                                                         
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION /02Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...                                      
COLD FRONT CROSSING NE OHIO WITH ONE LAST BATCH OF MVFR SHOWERS                 
AND ISOLATED THUNDER AND A FEW WIND GUSTS TO 30 KTS. WRAP AROUND                
MOISTURE WILL CROSS THE AREA TONIGHT AND SUNDAY MORN. NW OHIO MAY               
SEE A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS/SPRINKLES OTHERWISE CEILINGS WILL LIKELY                
COME DOWN TO MVFR FOR A 4-6 HOUR PERIOD. STRATOCUMULUS WILL LIFT                
TO VFR (AROUND 4K) SUNDAY MORNING AND CLEARING SHOULD PROCEED FROM              
NW TO SE AND CU/STRATOCU WILL GRADUALLY DRY UP.                                 
OUTLOOK...WEAK COLD FRONT MAY BRUSH THE AREA ON MONDAY OTHERWISE                
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED UNTIL NEXT SIGNIFICANT FRONT WHICH IS                   
EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY. FRONT MAY BECOME STATIONARY JUST SOUTH OF                
THE AREA THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK AND MVFR OR PERHAPS IFR                    
CONDITIONS MAY OCCUR IF FRONT IS CLOSE ENOUGH AND SHOWERS PERSIST.              
&&                                                                              
.MARINE...                                                                      
SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS WITH WINDS OF 15 TO 25 KNOTS EXPECTED TONIGHT            
THEN DECREASE IN WINDS SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN.  SOUTH FLOW            
WILL DEVELOP MONDAY AND GENERALLY CONTINUE THROUGH TUE NIGHT BEFORE             
VEERING WITH PASSAGE OF COLD FRONT WEDNESDAY. BUT MODELS DIFFER ON              
LOCATION OF LOW DRAGGING THE COLD FRONT ALONG.  WILL OPT FOR A                  
SCENARIO WHERE THE LOW STAYS JUST NORTH OF LAKE ERIE.  HIGH PRESSURE            
MAY RIDGE IN FROM THE NORTH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THU FOR A NORTH WIND            
THAT VEERS TO EAST OR NE THU AS ANOTHER LOW IS EXPECTED TO BE MOVING            
UP THE OHIO VALLEY.                                                             
&&                                                                              
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
OH...NONE.                                                                      
PA...NONE.                                                                      
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR LEZ142>149.            
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SYNOPSIS...KUBINA                                                               
NEAR TERM...KUBINA                                                              
SHORT TERM...RANDEL                                                             
LONG TERM...ADAMS                                                               
AVIATION...KOSARIK                                                              
MARINE...ADAMS                                                                  
</pre> oh                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH                                          
156 AM EDT SAT MAY 3 2008                                                       
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY                   
REGION LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY...BRINGING SHOWERS AND                   
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE                  
MIDWEST ON SATURDAY AND WORK INTO THE OHIO VALLEY ON SUNDAY. THE                
NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WITH UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL PASS OVER                  
THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY.                                                        
&&                                                                              
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM THIS MORNING/...                                         
A DEFINITIVE BACK EDGE OF THE SHOWERS IN ERN CWA WILL HELP THE SCT              
SHOWERS TO TURN OFF BY MIDNIGHT OVER THE SOUTHEAST. A LULL IN THE               
ACTIVITY WILL OCCUR AS STRONG STORMS SPARK ALONG THE COLD FRONT IN              
ILLINOIS AND INDIANA AND SLOWLY MOVE EAST. ANOTHER SWATH OF                     
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS FOUND SOUTH SOUTHWEST OF THE OHVLY IN              
WRN TN AND KY WHERE THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS NEG TILTING TO                    
PROVIDE A STRONGER BIT OF DYNAMICS TO THIS REGION. NAM IS SHOWING               
THE LINE OF CONVECTION TO THE WEST DYING OUT AS IT RUNS INTO AN                 
AIRMASS THAT HAS ALREADY BEEN WORKED OVER THIS AFTERNOON. THESE                 
STORMS ARE ALSO GOING TO BE ROBBED OF THE BEST MOISTURE PLUME THAT              
WILL GET WRUNG OUT SOUTH OF THE AREA.                                           
LINE OF CONVECTION WILL FIRE SOUTHWEST OF THE CWA AROUND THE                    
LOUISVILLE AREA LATER THIS EVENING. IT WILL BE THE BEGINNING OF                 
WIDESPREAD CONVECTION THAT NOSES ALONG THE IN/KY BORDER INTO SW                 
OH...SPREADING E AS THE STORMS TRACK FURTHER NE ALONG THE I-71                  
CORRIDOR.                                                                       
HIGHEST INSTABILITY IS NOTED TO THE WEST WITH BETTER FORCING                    
COMBINING WITH INSTABILITY TO THE SOUTH. ANY STORMS PUSHING                     
THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE                   
WINDS AS THE STORMS THEMSELVES ARE IN THE MEAN FLOW OF ABOUT 50                 
MPH ONLY A FEW THOUSAND FEET OFF THE GROUND. COMBINATION OF                     
FORCING AND INSTABILITY COULD RESULT IN INDIVIDUAL SUPERCELLS BUT               
THIS SCENARIO WEAKENS WITH EACH PASSING HOUR. BACK EDGE OF STORMS               
SHOULD BE E OF THE I-75 CORRIDOR AT DAYBREAK AND CONTINUE TO MOVE               
QUICKLY E.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM /7 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...                          
GIVEN THE CONVECTIVE NATURE OF PCPN EXPECTED THROUGH THE SHORT                  
TERM PERIOD...HAVE LEANED MORE ON THE OPERATIONAL NAM-WRF...RUC AND             
SREF MEANS.                                                                     
A COLD FRONT EXTENDED FROM SE MN...SW WISCONSIN...FAR WRN                       
ILLINOIS...THEN TO THE LOWER MS RIVER VLY THIS EVENING. THIS                    
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO REACH A CENTRAL MICHIGAN TO CENTRAL INDIANA                
POSITION BY 12Z SATURDAY...AND THEN SLOWLY TRAVERSE THE REGION                  
THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING. MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE 925 MB-850                
MB LOW LVL CONVERGENCE OUT AHEAD OF THE SFC FRONT FOR LATE TONIGHT              
INTO SATURDAY MORNING. ALSO...THIS CONVERGENCE IS EXPECTED TO BE                
SUPPLEMENTED BY UPR DIVERGENCE ROTATING NORTHWARD ACRS THE WESTERN              
GREAT LAKES IN ASSOCIATION WITH AN UPR LVL LOW. LATEST RUC AND                  
NAM-WRF MODELS INDICATE THAT PERHAPS THE BEST LOW LVL FORCING WILL              
OCCUR OVER THE SW FCST AREA LATE TONIGHT WITH WEAKER FORCING                    
EXPECTED ACRS THE NW CWFA. ATTM...HAVE MAINTAINED 80 POPS ACRS THE              
ENTIRE WEST CWFA ONIGHT...BUT EVENING FORECAST SHIFT MAY HAVE TO                
TRIM POPS BACK FOR THE NW IF MODEL TRENDS CONTINUE TO INDICATE                  
WEAKER FORCING THERE. SPC CONTINUES TO KEEP THE WRN HALF OF OUR                 
FCST AREA IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR LATE                    
TONIGHT. THE CHC/S FOR SEVERE WILL DEPENDENT ON HOW MUCH                        
INSTABILITY CAN HOLD TOGETHER AS LINE OF CONVECTION REACHES OUR                 
FCST AREA. IF LINE ARRIVES EARLY ENOUGH...THEN SOME DAMAGING WINDS              
MAY BE POSSIBLE. OTHERWISE...CONVECTION MAY COME THROUGH THE                    
REGION WITHOUT ANY PROBLEMS. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR MESOSCALE                 
AND MODEL TRENDS.                                                               
OTHERWISE...AM EXPECTING BULK OF PCPN TO MOVE OFF TO THE EAST BY                
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THEN...ATTENTION TURNS TOWARD THE COLD FRONT.               
IF THE ATMOSPHERE CAN DESTABILIZE ENOUGH AFTER BEING WORKED OVER                
FROM MORNING CONVECTION...THEN SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS AND                       
THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP. HAVE CONTINUED A 30 TO 40 POP                
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS FOR THIS POSSIBILITY.                                
BY SATURDAY EVENING...WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING...ANY                    
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH AND/OR MOVE OFF TO THE EAST                   
ALONG THE COLD FRONT. ENTIRE FCST AREA IS EXPECTED TO BE DRY BY                 
MIDNIGHT. SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BEGIN TO BUILD INTO THE                   
REGION AFTER MIDNIGHT.                                                          
AS FOR TEMPERATURES...THEY WILL BE A LITTLE TRICKY ON SATURDAY DUE              
CLOUDS AND ANY POSSIBLE INSOLATION BETWEEN CONVECTIVE EVENTS.  HAVE             
RANGED TEMPERATURES FROM THE MID 60S NW TO THE LOWER 70S SE. MUCH               
COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED BY SUNDAY MORNING WITH LOWS                    
RANGING FROM THE LOWER TO MID 40S.                                              
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...                                     
MODEL CONSENSUS FAVORING A WEAKER AND CONSEQUENTLY MORE PROGRESSIVE             
UPR TROF AXIS CROSSING THE ERN GRT LKS SUN MRNG. AT THE SFC...HI                
PRES EXPANDING INTO THE REGION A LITTLE FASTER THRU THE DAY SUNDAY.             
GFS/NAM BOTH CONTINUE TO INDICATE A LO LVL THERMAL TROF LAGGING ACRS            
FCST AREA SUNDAY IN CAA REGIME...BUT GENERALLY WEAKER WITH THIS                 
FEATURE THAN PREV RUNS HAD INDICATED. HAVE THEREFORE CUT BACK ON CU             
FIELD A BIT FOR SUNDAY AND ALLOWED FOR A BIT MORE SUNSHINE AND                  
SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPS THAN PREV FCST. APPEARS IDEAL RADIATIONAL                 
COOLING SETUP SUN NIGHT WITH CLR SKIES AND LGT WINDS UNDER CENTER OF            
HI PRES. TEMPS LIKELY TO BOTTOM OUT IN THE U30S/L40S ON MON MRNG.               
FIRST HALF OF THE WORKWEEK WILL BE HIGHLIGHTED BY SFC HI PRES AND               
MEAN NORTHWEST FLO ALOFT AS DEEP UPR LO SPINS ACRS JAMES BAY REGION             
OF CANADA. SVRL WEAK MID LVL DISTURBANCES WILL RIDE AROUND THE BASE             
OF THE MEAN TROF AND PASS THRU THE GRT LKS AND INTO NEW ENGLAND.                
ONE OF THESE DISTURBANCES WILL DROP ACRS THIS AREA LATE MON NIGHT               
AND TUES REFLECTED BY A WEAK COLD FRONT AT THE SFC. BOTH 12Z GFS/NAM            
SOLNS ARE MORE AMPLIFIED AND FURTHER SOUTH WITH AFOREMENTIONED UPR              
LO AND CONSEQUENTLY STRONGER WITH COLD FRONT AS IT DROP INTO THE ERN            
GRT LKS. HAVE TRENDED TOWARDS WEAKER 00Z ECMWF/HPC SOLN WHICH FAVORS            
A WEAKER COLD FRONT WASHING OUT JUST NORTHEAST OF REGION TUES AS IT             
RUNS INTO RELATIVELY DRY AIRMASS WITH LITTLE IN WAY OF AVAIL                    
FORCING. HAVE ALSO LEANED HEAVILY TOWARDS 00Z ECMWF/HPC SOLN FOR                
REMAINDER OF EXTENDED WRT ENERGY BEING EJECTED NORTHEAST INTO CNTRL             
PLAINS FROM DEEP WRN CONUS UPR TROF BY MIDWEEK. SFC LO WILL DVLP IN             
THE SRN PLAINS WED AFTN AND LIFT NORTHEAST INTO THE GRT LKS BY FRI.             
WILL INTRODUCE CHANCE POPS LATE WED NIGHT AND PARTICULARLY INTO                 
THURS AS WARM FRONT RISE NORTH INTO THE OH VLY. THE POSSIBILITY FOR             
SHRA/TSTMS WILL PERSIST INTO FRI AS REGION MOVES INTO WARM SECTOR               
AHEAD OF TRAILING COLD FRONT. HAVE BUMPED TEMPS UP A FEW DEG FROM               
PREV FCST FOR MON-WED AS APPEARS EXPANSION OF MID LVL RIDGE WILL                
ALLOW FOR A FASTER RECOVERY OF TEMPS TO AROUND 70 OR HIGHER FROM                
TUES FORWARD.                                                                   
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...                                   
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPANDING IN                     
COVERAGE ACROSS KENTUCKY AND INDIANA AHEAD OF AN ADVANCING COLD                 
FRONT. LARGE AREA OF RAIN MOVING INTO SW OHIO WILL CONTINUE                     
PUSHING TOWARD KILN AND POSSIBLY CENTRAL OHIO WITHIN A FEW HOURS.               
MAIN CONCERN IS THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY DEVELOPING BEHIND THIS                
PRECIP...CURRENTLY ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN INDIANA. NAM AND                 
GFS BOTH INCREASE THIS PRECIP IN COVERAGE AS INTENSIFYING LOW                   
LEVEL CONVERGENCE PUSHES INTO OHIO AROUND 09Z. BIG QUESTION IS                  
HOW MUCH INSTBY WILL BE IN PLACE WHEN THIS ACTIVITY COMES                       
THROUGH. WITH STRONG LOW AND MIDLEVEL SHEAR...JUST A FEW HUNDRED                
JOULES OF CAPE COULD RESULT IN SOME STRONG STORMS LATE                          
TONIGHT...HOWEVER IF INSTBY IS LESS THAN THIS...PROBABLY WONT SEE               
MUCH IN THE WAY OF THUNDER AT ALL. WILL STILL HOLD OFF ON                       
INTRODUCING PREVAILING OR TEMPO THUNDER TO THE TAFS SINCE INSTBY                
IS SUCH AN UNKNOWN...BUT CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED                    
CLOSELY OVERNIGHT. FOLLOWED PRETTY CLOSELY TO THE NAM FOR TIMING                
THIS LINE...COMING THROUGH KCVG AROUND 09Z AND KCMH AROUND 12Z.                 
AFTER FRONT PASSES...SHOULD SEE SOME QUICK CLEARING BEFORE                      
MIDLEVEL IMPULSE BRINGS ANOTHER CHANCE FOR AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND                
A BKN MIDLEVEL DECK. WINDS WILL BE GUSTY FROM THE SOUTHWEST                     
DURING THE AFTERNOON...THEN WILL DIE DOWN AFTER SUNSET. MOISTURE                
CLEARS FROM WEST TO EAST AFTER 00Z.                                             
OUTLOOK...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY.                 
&&                                                                              
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
OH...NONE.                                                                      
KY...NONE.                                                                      
IN...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SYNOPSIS...FRANKS                                                               
NEAR TERM...FRANKS                                                              
SHORT TERM...HICKMAN                                                            
LONG TERM...RYAN                                                                
AVIATION...HAWBLITZEL                                                           
</pre> oh                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV                                          
151 PM EDT FRI MAY 2 2008                                                       
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
WARM SOUTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES FOR ONE MORE DAY.  A COLD FRONT                   
CROSSES THE AREA WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDER SATURDAY...FOLLOWED BY                
COOLER WEATHER SUNDAY.  HIGH PRESSURE IN CHARGE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH            
TUESDAY.                                                                        
&&                                                                              
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...                                                 
FORECAST ON TRACK SAVE TO UP WIND GUSTS THROUGH SAT BASED ON RUC                
ALGORITHM PER GOOD MIXING.  ALSO ADJUSTED CLOUDS AND DEW POINTS                 
/MOSTLY A LITTLE LOWER ON BOTH/ FOR THIS AFTERNOON.                             
REST SAME AS HIGHS TODAY LOOK GOOD...                                           
THOUGH GFS SEEMS A BIT BULLISH ON MID LEVEL MOISTURE...MODELS ARE IN            
PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT EVEN ON DETAILS TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT...WITH              
CWA REMAINING IN WARM SECTOR WELL OUT AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD                 
FRONT. WARM SOUTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES FOR ONE MORE DAY...WITH                    
INCREMENTALLY HIGHER DEW POINTS YET ALSO TEMPERATURES. THOUGH MIXING            
LOOKS TO OCCUR ABOUT AS WELL AS THURSDAY...850MB WINDS WILL NOT HAVE            
QUITE AS MUCH ZING /ABOUT 20 TO 25 KTS AT 850MB TODAY VERSUS 30 TO              
35 KTS YESTERDAY/. THAT BEING SAID...STILL A GENERALLY BREEZY DAY               
DURING PEAK MIXING...AND AS WITH THURSDAY...MARGINAL FIRE WEATHER               
CONCERN EXISTS /SEE FIRE WEATHER SECTION OF AFD/.                               
WEAK VORTS MOVING THROUGH SOUTHWEST FLOW...THE MOST OBVIOUS OF WHICH            
REACHES FAR WESTERN ZONES AROUND 00Z-03Z THIS EVENING...COULD TOUCH             
OFF A FEW THUNDERSTORMS IN OUR NE KY AND SE OH ZONES. HOWEVER...WITH            
DEW POINTS STILL ONLY IN THE 40S UNTIL LATE TONIGHT /DRIER MAV                  
GUIDANCE PREFERRED/...COVERAGE OF CONVECTION LOOKS MEAGER EVEN IN               
THE FAR WESTERN ZONES...AND THUS I AM LOOKING FOR DRY WEATHER TO                
LAST UNTIL AT LEAST SATURDAY MORNING FOR VAST MAJORITY OF THE AREA.             
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...                                        
MODELS IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE TIMING OF THE COLD FRONT                   
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS OUR AREA. FRONT REACHES OUR               
WESTERN BORDER AROUND MID AFTERNOON SATURDAY...AND EXITS OUR AREA               
AROUND MIDNIGHT. THE MAIN SHORT WAVE SUPPORTING THE COLD FRONT                  
ACTUALLY LIFTS NORTH AND WEST OF THE AREA SATURDAY MORNING...SO THAT            
INITIAL BAND OF CONVECTION PRECEDING THE COLD FRONT WASHES OUT FOR              
THE MOST PART AS IT CROSSES THE OHIO RIVER DURING SATURDAY MORNING.             
THE BIG QUESTION THEN IS HOW MUCH REGENERATION ALONG THE COLD FRONT             
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. WITH UPPER SUPPORT DIMINISHING...MUCH DEPENDS ON            
HOW MUCH SUNSHINE AND HEATING WE GET AHEAD OF THE FRONT. WHILE                  
UNCERTAIN AS TO HOW MUCH CLOUD DEBRIS LINGERS...GOOD LOW LEVEL                  
CONVERGENCE...GOOD MOISTURE FEED AND TIME OF DAY STRONGLY SUGGESTS A            
LINE OF CONVECTION ALONG THE FRONT AS IT CROSSES OUR AREA SATURDAY              
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THUS...HAVE GONE ON THE HIGH SIDE OF                     
GUIDANCE  WITH LIKELY POPS. ALSO GOING ON THE WARMER SIDE OF                    
GUIDANCE SATURDAY.                                                              
WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN RAPIDLY LATER SATURDAY NIGHT AND                 
SUNDAY...HAVE ENDED POST FRONTAL SHOWERS MORE QUICKLY THAN MODELS               
SUGGEST...WITH ANY LINGERING SHOWERS IN THE MOUNTAINS ENDING SUNDAY             
MORNING. TEMPS FALL BACK TO NEAR SEASONAL VALUES SUNDAY. NO                     
FROST/FREEZE SEEN WITH AIR MASS FOLLOWING THE COLD FRONT.                       
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...                                     
HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES MONDAY WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND A                    
WARMING TREND. WEAK COLD FRONT TRIES TO DIP DOWN FROM THE NORTH                 
TUESDAY...BUT THE UPPER FLOW BEGINS TO BACK TO A MORE WESTERLY FLOW             
AHEAD OF THE NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM. IN ANY CASE...LITTLE MOISTURE                 
RETURN AND UPPER SUPPORT FOR THE FRONT EVEN IF IT DOES MAKE IT INTO             
OUR NORTHERN AREAS LATER TUESDAY BEFORE WASHING OUT. THUS...NO                  
POPS.                                                                           
MAIN MODEL DISCREPANCIES ARE FOR THE NEXT MAIN SYSTEM AFFECTING US              
MID TO LATER WEEK. THE GFS IS FASTEST AS IT LIFTS UPPER LOW OUT OF              
THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S. MUCH MORE QUICKLY THAN THE ECMWF. GIVEN THE               
GFS BIAS OF BEING FAST ON THESE SYSTEMS...HAVE TRENDED WITH HPC                 
TOWARD THE SLOWER SOLUTION. THIS BRINGS A CHANCE OF SHOWERS MAINLY              
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. LOOK FOR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS THIS PERIOD.             
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...                                     
WE REMAIN IN THE WARM SECTOR OF SYSTEM...WELL OUT AHEAD OF                      
APPROACHING COLD FRONT THAT WILL NOT ARRIVE UNTIL DURING THE DAY                
SATURDAY. UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL BRING PATCHY ALTOCU THROUGH             
THE AREA...BUT NOTHING MORE THAN A FEW THUNDERSTORMS IN SOUTHEAST               
OHIO THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WELL AWAY FROM THE OHIO RIVER.                
FR WILL PREVAIL THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY...THOUGH CIGS WILL BEGIN TO                
LOWER SATURDAY MORNING.                                                         
SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL ARRIVE FROM THE W...GETTING TO             
CENTRAL TERMINALS /CKB AND CRW/ NEAR THE END OF THE PERIOD /18Z/.               
CONDITIONS WILL LOWER TO MVFR AND EVEN IFR IN HEAVIER RAINFALL AS               
THIS HAPPENS.                                                                   
AVIATION OUTLOOK /AFTER 18Z SATURDAY/...COLD FRONT WITH RAIN AND                
THUNDER...AND POSSIBLE IFR...INTO SATURDAY NIGHT.                               
&&                                                                              
.FIRE WEATHER...                                                                
FORECAST AS OF LATE MORNING REMAINS ON TRACK.  FWS ISSUED FOR MIDDLE            
MTN SOUTH.                                                                      
REST SAME...                                                                    
THOUGH DEW POINTS WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES HIGHER TODAY COMPARED TO              
THURSDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO BE HIGHER WITH OUR CONTINUED                  
SOUTHWEST FLOW...AND THUS MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL STILL DIP              
INTO THE MID TO UPPER 20S FOR A GOOD CHUNK OF THE AREA /DRIEST IN               
SOUTHERN WV AND SOUTHWEST VA/. MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL HELP KEEP                  
THINGS IN CHECK HOWEVER...ESPECIALLY NORTHWESTERN ZONES /OHIO/. AS              
FOR WINDS...THOUGH GOOD MIXING WILL OCCUR AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON...MID            
LEVEL WINDS WILL NOT BE QUITE AS STRONG AS THURSDAY. SUSTAINED WINDS            
OF 10-14 MPH WITH GUSTS OF 20-25 MPH ARE EXPECTED DURING PEAK MIXING            
THIS AFTERNOON.                                                                 
SO OVERALL...RED FLAG CRITERIA WILL AGAIN BE APPROACHED IN PARTS OF             
THE AREA BUT NOT BREACHED. HOWEVER...WE WILL HAVE TO MONITOR THE                
SITUATION CLOSELY...ESPECIALLY WITH 10 HOUR FUEL MOISTURE LEVELS NOW            
DROPPING INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS.                                                
&&                                                                              
.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
WV...NONE.                                                                      
OH...NONE.                                                                      
KY...NONE.                                                                      
VA...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SYNOPSIS...MDP/JMV                                                              
NEAR TERM...MDP/TRM                                                             
SHORT TERM...JMV                                                                
LONG TERM...JMV                                                                 
AVIATION...TRM                                                                  
FIRE WEATHER...MDP/TRM                                                          
</pre> oh                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV                                          
1119 AM EDT FRI MAY 2 2008                                                      
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
WARM SOUTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES FOR ONE MORE DAY. A COLD FRONT CROSSES            
THE AREA WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDER SATURDAY...FOLLOWED BY COOLER                 
WEATHER SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE IN CHARGE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY.           
&&                                                                              
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...                                                 
FORECAST ON TRACK SAVE TO UP WIND GUSTS THROUGH SAT BASED ON RUC                
ALGORITHM PER GOOD MIXING.  ALSO ADJUSTED CLOUDS AND DEW POINTS                 
/MOSTLY A LITTLE LOWER ON BOTH/ FOR THIS AFTERNOON.                             
REST SAME AS HIGHS TODAY LOOK GOOD...                                           
THOUGH GFS SEEMS A BIT BULLISH ON MID LEVEL MOISTURE...MODELS ARE IN            
PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT EVEN ON DETAILS TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT...WITH              
CWA REMAINING IN WARM SECTOR WELL OUT AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD                 
FRONT. WARM SOUTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES FOR ONE MORE DAY...WITH                    
INCREMENTALLY HIGHER DEW POINTS YET ALSO TEMPERATURES. THOUGH MIXING            
LOOKS TO OCCUR ABOUT AS WELL AS THURSDAY...850MB WINDS WILL NOT HAVE            
QUITE AS MUCH ZING /ABOUT 20 TO 25 KTS AT 850MB TODAY VERSUS 30 TO              
35 KTS YESTERDAY/. THAT BEING SAID...STILL A GENERALLY BREEZY DAY               
DURING PEAK MIXING...AND AS WITH THURSDAY...MARGINAL FIRE WEATHER               
CONCERN EXISTS /SEE FIRE WEATHER SECTION OF AFD/.                               
WEAK VORTS MOVING THROUGH SOUTHWEST FLOW...THE MOST OBVIOUS OF WHICH            
REACHES FAR WESTERN ZONES AROUND 00Z-03Z THIS EVENING...COULD TOUCH             
OFF A FEW THUNDERSTORMS IN OUR NE KY AND SE OH ZONES. HOWEVER...WITH            
DEW POINTS STILL ONLY IN THE 40S UNTIL LATE TONIGHT /DRIER MAV                  
GUIDANCE PREFERRED/...COVERAGE OF CONVECTION LOOKS MEAGER EVEN IN               
THE FAR WESTERN ZONES...AND THUS I AM LOOKING FOR DRY WEATHER TO                
LAST UNTIL AT LEAST SATURDAY MORNING FOR VAST MAJORITY OF THE AREA.             
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...                                        
MODELS IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE TIMING OF THE COLD FRONT                   
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS OUR AREA. FRONT REACHES OUR               
WESTERN BORDER AROUND MID AFTERNOON SATURDAY...AND EXITS OUR AREA               
AROUND MIDNIGHT. THE MAIN SHORT WAVE SUPPORTING THE COLD FRONT                  
ACTUALLY LIFTS NORTH AND WEST OF THE AREA SATURDAY MORNING...SO THAT            
INITIAL BAND OF CONVECTION PRECEDING THE COLD FRONT WASHES OUT FOR              
THE MOST PART AS IT CROSSES THE OHIO RIVER DURING SATURDAY MORNING.             
THE BIG QUESTION THEN IS HOW MUCH REGENERATION ALONG THE COLD FRONT             
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. WITH UPPER SUPPORT DIMINISHING...MUCH DEPENDS ON            
HOW MUCH SUNSHINE AND HEATING WE GET AHEAD OF THE FRONT. WHILE                  
UNCERTAIN AS TO HOW MUCH CLOUD DEBRIS LINGERS...GOOD LOW LEVEL                  
CONVERGENCE...GOOD MOISTURE FEED AND TIME OF DAY STRONGLY SUGGESTS A            
LINE OF CONVECTION ALONG THE FRONT AS IT CROSSES OUR AREA SATURDAY              
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THUS...HAVE GONE ON THE HIGH SIDE OF                     
GUIDANCE  WITH LIKELY POPS. ALSO GOING ON THE WARMER SIDE OF                    
GUIDANCE SATURDAY.                                                              
WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN RAPIDLY LATER SATURDAY NIGHT AND                 
SUNDAY...HAVE ENDED POST FRONTAL SHOWERS MORE QUICKLY THAN MODELS               
SUGGEST...WITH ANY LINGERING SHOWERS IN THE MOUNTAINS ENDING SUNDAY             
MORNING. TEMPS FALL BACK TO NEAR SEASONAL VALUES SUNDAY. NO                     
FROST/FREEZE SEEN WITH AIR MASS FOLLOWING THE COLD FRONT.                       
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...                                   
HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES MONDAY WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND A                    
WARMING TREND. WEAK COLD FRONT TRIES TO DIP DOWN FROM THE NORTH                 
TUESDAY...BUT THE UPPER FLOW BEGINS TO BACK TO A MORE WESTERLY FLOW             
AHEAD OF THE NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM. IN ANY CASE...LITTLE MOISTURE                 
RETURN AND UPPER SUPPORT FOR THE FRONT EVEN IF IT DOES MAKE IT INTO             
OUR NORTHERN AREAS LATER TUESDAY BEFORE WASHING OUT. THUS...NO                  
POPS.                                                                           
MAIN MODEL DISCREPANCIES ARE FOR THE NEXT MAIN SYSTEM AFFECTING US              
MID TO LATER WEEK. THE GFS IS FASTEST AS IT LIFTS UPPER LOW OUT OF              
THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S. MUCH MORE QUICKLY THAN THE ECMWF. GIVEN THE               
GFS BIAS OF BEING FAST ON THESE SYSTEMS...HAVE TRENDED WITH HPC                 
TOWARD THE SLOWER SOLUTION. THIS BRINGS A CHANCE OF SHOWERS MAINLY              
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. LOOK FOR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS THIS PERIOD.             
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION /15Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...                                       
WE REMAIN IN THE WARM SECTOR OF SYSTEM...WELL OUT AHEAD OF                      
APPROACHING COLD FRONT THAT WILL NOT ARRIVE UNTIL DURING THE DAY                
SATURDAY. UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES COULD CAUSE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS              
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...BUT COVERAGE WILL BE ISOLATED AND IT               
SHOULD BE LIMITED TO WEST OF THE KHTS AND KPKB TERMINALS. WITH                  
ONLY MID TO HIGH CLOUDS AT TIMES...VFR WILL PREVAIL THROUGH 12Z                 
SATURDAY...THOUGH CIGS WILL BEGIN TO LOWER SATURDAY MORNING.                    
AVIATION OUTLOOK /AFTER 12Z SATURDAY/...COLD FRONT WITH RAIN AND                
THUNDER...AND POSSIBLE IFR...SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT.                       
&&                                                                              
.FIRE WEATHER...                                                                
FORECAST AS OF LATE MORNING REMAINS ON TRACK.  FWS ISSUED FOR MIDDLE            
MTN SOUTH.                                                                      
REST SAME...                                                                    
THOUGH DEW POINTS WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES HIGHER TODAY COMPARED TO              
THURSDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO BE HIGHER WITH OUR CONTINUED                  
SOUTHWEST FLOW...AND THUS MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL STILL DIP              
INTO THE MID TO UPPER 20S FOR A GOOD CHUNK OF THE AREA /DRIEST IN               
SOUTHERN WV AND SOUTHWEST VA/. MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL HELP KEEP                  
THINGS IN CHECK HOWEVER...ESPECIALLY NORTHWESTERN ZONES /OHIO/. AS              
FOR WINDS...THOUGH GOOD MIXING WILL OCCUR AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON...MID            
LEVEL WINDS WILL NOT BE QUITE AS STRONG AS THURSDAY. SUSTAINED WINDS            
OF 10-14 MPH WITH GUSTS OF 20-25 MPH ARE EXPECTED DURING PEAK MIXING            
THIS AFTERNOON.                                                                 
SO OVERALL...RED FLAG CRITERIA WILL AGAIN BE APPROACHED IN PARTS OF             
THE AREA BUT NOT BREACHED. HOWEVER...WE WILL HAVE TO MONITOR THE                
SITUATION CLOSELY...ESPECIALLY WITH 10 HOUR FUEL MOISTURE LEVELS NOW            
DROPPING INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS.                                                
&&                                                                              
.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
WV...NONE.                                                                      
OH...NONE.                                                                      
KY...NONE.                                                                      
VA...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SYNOPSIS...MDP/JMV                                                              
NEAR TERM...MDP/TRM                                                             
SHORT TERM...JMV                                                                
LONG TERM...JMV                                                                 
AVIATION...MDP                                                                  
FIRE WEATHER...MDP/TRM                                                          
</pre> oh                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK                                              
521 PM CDT FRI MAY 2 2008                                                       
.UPDATE...SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND TRENDS IN THE SHORT RANGE                    
MODELS...INCLUDING THE RUC...SUPPORT A WIND ADVISORY FOR A LARGE                
PART OF NORTHERN AND WESTERN OKLAHOMA THIS EVENING. THE BACK SIDE               
OF THE LARGE UPPER TROUGH AFFECTING THE CENTRAL UNITED                          
STATES...WILL SWING THROUGH OKLAHOMA AND NORTH TEXAS OVERNIGHT.                 
HEIGHT FALLS BENEATH THIS FEATURE WILL BE SUPPORTED BY A SECOND                 
COLD FRONT...THIS TIME PULLING IN MUCH COOLER AIR FROM THE NORTH                
RATHER THAN THE WEST. WITH SEVERAL HOURS OF DEEP MIXING STILL                   
POSSIBLE...AND STRONG DOWNWARD MOTION ASSOCIATED WITH COLD                      
ADVECTION...WOULD EXPECT THE 45 TO 50 MPH GUSTS IN NORTHWEST                    
OKLAHOMA LATE THIS AFTERNOON TO SPREAD SOUTH AND EAST DURING THE                
EVENING.                                                                        
MEANWHILE...HUMIDITY WILL GRADUALLY RECOVER IN THE RED FLAG                     
WARNING COUNTIES. WILL KEEP THE WARNING GOING BASED ON EXCESSIVE                
WINDS AND AVAILABLE FUELS...BUT WILL ALLOW IT TO EXPIRE NATURALLY               
AT 7 PM.                                                                        
&&                                                                              
BURKE/11                                                                        
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 246 PM CDT FRI MAY 2 2008/                          
DISCUSSION...                                                                   
UPPER STORM SYSTEM IS MOVING THROUGH NEBRASKA TODAY WITH THE                    
SURFACE LOW MOVING INTO IOWA. SOME OF THE MID LEVEL CLOUDS THAT                 
DEVELOPED THIS AFTERNOON IN THE NORTHWEST MAY CONTINUE TO AFFECT                
NORTHERN OKLAHOMA THIS EVENING...BUT OTHERWISE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES               
ARE ANTICIPATED. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL TO THE MID 30S IN SOME OF               
THE TYPICAL COOL SPOTS AROUND THE AREA.                                         
A MILD AND DRY WEEKEND IS EXPECTED. THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM BEGINS                
TO TAKE SHAPE IN THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES. RETURNING                      
MOISTURE AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM STARTS SPREADING NORTH INTO THE AREA              
ON MONDAY AND ISENTROPIC LIFT IS PROGGED TO BE SUFFICIENT FOR SOME              
PRECIPITATION. THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/STORMS CONTINUE THROUGH                   
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE SOUTHWESTERN STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES AND                 
MOVES THROUGH THE AREA.                                                         
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  42  68  41  76 /  10   0   0   0                              
HOBART OK         40  68  42  77 /  10   0   0   0                              
WICHITA FALLS TX  43  71  45  78 /  10   0   0   0                              
GAGE OK           34  67  37  78 /   0   0   0   0                              
PONCA CITY OK     41  63  38  74 /  10   0   0   0                              
DURANT OK         49  71  48  77 /  10   0   0   0                              
&&                                                                              
.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
OK...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM CDT SATURDAY FOR OKZ016>018-021>024-034-          
     035.                                                                       
     RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR OKZ004-005-009-           
     010.                                                                       
     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR OKZ004>007-                 
     009>012-014-015.                                                           
TX...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</pre> ok                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD                                            
1028 AM CDT SAT MAY 3 2008                                                      
.UPDATE...                                                                      
CURRENT FCST IS IN GOOD SHAPE...WITH HIGH PRESSURE PROVIDING CLEAR              
SKIES. ERN PART OF CWA STILL SEEING SOME BRISK WINDS...BUT THOSE                
SHOULD SLOWLY DIMINISH AS SFC GRADIENT RELAXES. FCST 925MB AND                  
850MB TEMPS MIX DOWN TO CURRENT FCST HIGHS...SO THOSE ALSO LOOK IN              
GOOD SHAPE.                                                                     
NO NEED TO RESEND WORDED ZONE FCST PACKAGE ATTM.                                
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION...                                                             
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY                                              
FORECAST CHALLENGES INCLUDE TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINT                          
TEMPERATURES.                                                                   
CURRENTLY...HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE IS BUILDING INTO THE                   
FORECAST AREA. WINDS ARE SUBSIDING AND SKIES HAVE CLEARED. ONE                  
NOTE OF INTEREST IS THE EXTREMELY DRY BOUNDARY LAYER AIR WORKING                
INTO THE DAKOTAS AT THIS TIME. THE MODELS /INCLUDING THE RUC/ DO                
NOT APPEAR TO BE HANDLING THE DEGREE OF DRYNESS OVER THE AREA                   
RIGHT NOW...WHICH LEADS ONE TO CALL INTO QUESTION THEIR ABILITY TO              
ACCURATELY FORECAST THE DEGREE OF DRYNESS DURING THE DAY TODAY.                 
THEREFORE...DID RATCHET DOWN MAV GUIDANCE DEW POINTS FOR TODAY.                 
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT REALLY RELAXES TODAY...ALLOWING NORTH WINDS               
TO TURN MORE WESTERLY BY THIS AFTERNOON AND DECREASING TO 5 TO 15               
MPH OVER MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA. PERHAPS A LITTLE BIT STRONGER               
OUT EAST WHERE THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL HANG ON THE LONGEST                   
TODAY. WITH HUDSON BAY CLOSED UPPER LOW SITTING AND SPINNING IN                 
PLACE OVER CANADA FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...JET-LEVEL WINDS                 
ALOFT WILL TAKE ON PREDOMINANTLY NWRLY FLOW...STEERING A COUPLE OF              
WEAK AND RATHER MOISTURE STARVED UPPER WAVES THROUGH THE NORTHERN               
PLAINS BETWEEN TONIGHT AND MONDAY. THESE WAVES WILL LIKELY ALSO                 
UNDERGO SOME SHEARING/WEAKENING AS THEY WORK THROUGH THE REGION.                
AS SUCH...CONTINUING WITH A DRY FORECAST FOR TODAY THROUGH MONDAY.              
850HPA TEMPERATURES BETWEEN TODAY AND MONDAY WILL WARM FROM APPX                
+5C TO +11C. THIS TRANSLATES INTO A 10 TO 20 DEGREE WARMING OF                  
HIGH TEMPERATURES OVER THE NEXT THREE DAYS. THE TEMPERATURE WILD                
CARD RIGHT NOW IS THE TUG OF WAR THAT WILL EXIST THROUGHOUT THE                 
FORECAST AREA BETWEEN BOUNDARY LAYER EVAPOTRANSPIRED MOISTURE                   
/WHICH WOULD WORK TO KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM SKY-ROCKETING/ AS THE               
REGION IS BEGINNING TO GREEN UP SOME...AND THE MARKEDLY DRY AIR                 
THAT HAS BEEN LEFT OVER THE REGION IN THE WAKE OF YESTERDAY`S                   
IMPRESSIVE SPRING STORM SYSTEM /WHICH WOULD WORK TO HELP WARM THE               
AIRMASS NOW IN PLACE QUITE EFFICIENTLY/. SNOW COVER WILL NOT PLAY               
ALL THAT MUCH OF A ROLE AS SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS ALL THE                    
SNOW PACK IS WELL WEST OF THIS FORECAST AREA OVER WESTERN SOUTH                 
DAKOTA.                                                                         
.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY                                        
THE MODELS AND GFS ENSEMBLES SHOW GREAT AGREEMENT EARLY ON IN THE               
PERIOD WITH THE WEATHER FEATURES AFFECTING THE REGION FOR MONDAY                
NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THEN DIVERGE TOWARDS THE END OF               
THE PERIOD. FIRST OFF...A SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND ITS ASSOCIATED                  
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AREA AND TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL DROP ACROSS              
THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY. MODELS DONT INDICATE                 
MUCH MOISTURE AVAILABLE WITH THIS SYSTEM WITH DEWPOINTS MAINLY IN               
THE MID 40S ALONG WITH LITTLE CAPE ALONG WITH DRY AIR IN THE LOW                
AND INTO THE MID LEVELS. WHEN THIS SURFACE LOW AND COLD FRONT                   
MOVES THROUGH...IT SHOULD BE AT A MORE UNFAVORABLE TIME FOR                     
CONVECTION TO DEVELOP AT NIGHT IN THE EARLY MORNING. THUS...JUST                
HAVE IN A 20 POP FOR LIGHT SHOWERS ON TUESDAY. OTHERWISE...THE                  
MODELS THEN SHOW ANOTHER MUCH MORE SIGNIFICANT UPPER LOW/TROUGH                 
AND SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AREA MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON               
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THEY INDICATE NO PRECIPITATION FOR OUR                  
AREA WITH THIS SYSTEM AS IT TREKS ACROSS TO THE SOUTH.                          
THUS...REMOVED POPS FOR WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR OUR CWA.              
AFTER THIS...THE GFS AND EC DIVERGE WITH THE NEXT TROUGH MOVING IN              
FROM THE WEST. THE GFS WAS MUCH STRONGER WITH A TROUGH MOVING INTO              
AND AFFECTING THE REGION BY FRIDAY WHILE THE EC WAS FARTHER                     
NORTH...FASTER AND WEAKER WITH THIS TROUGH. LEFT THE FORECAST AS                
IS AT THIS POINT TO SEE WHAT LATER MODELS RUNS HAVE TO BRING TO                 
MAYBE TAKE POPS OUT OF THE FORECAST.                                            
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
VFR SKIES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY WITH UNRESTRICTED                     
VISIBILITIES AND NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED.                               
&&                                                                              
.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
SD...NONE.                                                                      
MN...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
UPDATE...HINTZ                                                                  
SHORT TERM...DORN                                                               
LONG TERM...MOHR                                                                
AVIATION...MOHR                                                                 
WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN                                                            
</pre> sd                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD                                            
415 AM CDT SAT MAY 3 2008                                                       
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY                                              
FORECAST CHALLENGES INCLUDE TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINT                          
TEMPERATURES.                                                                   
CURRENTLY...HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE IS BUILDING INTO THE                   
FORECAST AREA. WINDS ARE SUBSIDING AND SKIES HAVE CLEARED. ONE                  
NOTE OF INTEREST IS THE EXTREMELY DRY BOUNDARY LAYER AIR WORKING                
INTO THE DAKOTAS AT THIS TIME. THE MODELS /INCLUDING THE RUC/ DO                
NOT APPEAR TO BE HANDLING THE DEGREE OF DRYNESS OVER THE AREA                   
RIGHT NOW...WHICH LEADS ONE TO CALL INTO QUESTION THEIR ABILITY TO              
ACCURATELY FORECAST THE DEGREE OF DRYNESS DURING THE DAY TODAY.                 
THEREFORE...DID RATCHET DOWN MAV GUIDANCE DEW POINTS FOR TODAY.                 
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT REALLY RELAXES TODAY...ALLOWING NORTH WINDS               
TO TURN MORE WESTERLY BY THIS AFTERNOON AND DECREASING TO 5 TO 15               
MPH OVER MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA. PERHAPS A LITTLE BIT STRONGER               
OUT EAST WHERE THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL HANG ON THE LONGEST                   
TODAY. WITH HUDSON BAY CLOSED UPPER LOW SITTING AND SPINNING IN                 
PLACE OVER CANADA FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...JET-LEVEL WINDS                 
ALOFT WILL TAKE ON PREDOMINANTLY NWRLY FLOW...STEERING A COUPLE OF              
WEAK AND RATHER MOISTURE STARVED UPPER WAVES THROUGH THE NORTHERN               
PLAINS BETWEEN TONIGHT AND MONDAY. THESE WAVES WILL LIKELY ALSO                 
UNDERGO SOME SHEARING/WEAKENING AS THEY WORK THROUGH THE REGION.                
AS SUCH...CONTINUING WITH A DRY FORECAST FOR TODAY THROUGH MONDAY.              
850HPA TEMPERATURES BETWEEN TODAY AND MONDAY WILL WARM FROM APPX                
+5C TO +11C. THIS TRANSLATES INTO A 10 TO 20 DEGREE WARMING OF                  
HIGH TEMPERATURES OVER THE NEXT THREE DAYS. THE TEMPERATURE WILD                
CARD RIGHT NOW IS THE TUG OF WAR THAT WILL EXIST THROUGHOUT THE                 
FORECAST AREA BETWEEN BOUNDARY LAYER EVAPOTRANSPIRED MOISTURE                   
/WHICH WOULD WORK TO KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM SKY-ROCKETING/ AS THE               
REGION IS BEGINNING TO GREEN UP SOME...AND THE MARKEDLY DRY AIR                 
THAT HAS BEEN LEFT OVER THE REGION IN THE WAKE OF YESTERDAY`S                   
IMPRESSIVE SPRING STORM SYSTEM /WHICH WOULD WORK TO HELP WARM THE               
AIRMASS NOW IN PLACE QUITE EFFICIENTLY/. SNOW COVER WILL NOT PLAY               
ALL THAT MUCH OF A ROLE AS SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS ALL THE                    
SNOW PACK IS WELL WEST OF THIS FORECAST AREA OVER WESTERN SOUTH                 
DAKOTA.                                                                         
.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY                                        
THE MODELS AND GFS ENSEMBLES SHOW GREAT AGREEMENT EARLY ON IN THE               
PERIOD WITH THE WEATHER FEATURES AFFECTING THE REGION FOR MONDAY                
NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THEN DIVERGE TOWARDS THE END OF               
THE PERIOD. FIRST OFF...A SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND ITS ASSOCIATED                  
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AREA AND TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL DROP ACROSS              
THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY. MODELS DONT INDICATE                 
MUCH MOISTURE AVAILABLE WITH THIS SYSTEM WITH DEWPOINTS MAINLY IN               
THE MID 40S ALONG WITH LITTLE CAPE ALONG WITH DRY AIR IN THE LOW                
AND INTO THE MID LEVELS. WHEN THIS SURFACE LOW AND COLD FRONT                   
MOVES THROUGH...IT SHOULD BE AT A MORE UNFAVORABLE TIME FOR                     
CONVECTION TO DEVELOP AT NIGHT IN THE EARLY MORNING. THUS...JUST                
HAVE IN A 20 POP FOR LIGHT SHOWERS ON TUESDAY. OTHERWISE...THE                  
MODELS THEN SHOW ANOTHER MUCH MORE SIGNIFICANT UPPER LOW/TROUGH                 
AND SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AREA MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON               
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THEY INDICATE NO PRECIPITATION FOR OUR                  
AREA WITH THIS SYSTEM AS IT TREKS ACROSS TO THE SOUTH.                          
THUS...REMOVED POPS FOR WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR OUR CWA.              
AFTER THIS...THE GFS AND EC DIVERGE WITH THE NEXT TROUGH MOVING IN              
FROM THE WEST. THE GFS WAS MUCH STRONGER WITH A TROUGH MOVING INTO              
AND AFFECTING THE REGION BY FRIDAY WHILE THE EC WAS FARTHER                     
NORTH...FASTER AND WEAKER WITH THIS TROUGH. LEFT THE FORECAST AS                
IS AT THIS POINT TO SEE WHAT LATER MODELS RUNS HAVE TO BRING TO                 
MAYBE TAKE POPS OUT OF THE FORECAST.                                            
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
VFR SKIES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY WITH UNRESTRICTED                     
VISIBILITIES AND NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED.                               
&&                                                                              
.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
SD...NONE.                                                                      
MN...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHORT TERM...DORN                                                               
LONG TERM...MOHR                                                                
AVIATION...MOHR                                                                 
WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN                                                            
</pre> sd                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR SOUTHEAST SD/SOUTHWEST MN/NORTHWEST IA             
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD                                         
1040 AM CDT FRI MAY 2 2008                                                      
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
HAVE REFINED GRIDDED FCSTS FOR CURRNT INCRS AND ADVNCE OF RAIN FROM             
THE S/SE AND MADE MINOR ADJUSTMNTS TO TEMPS. OTRW CURNT WET FCST                
LOOKS GOOD WITH WDSPRD PCPN AFFECTING ALL OF FGCST AREA THIS AFTN               
INTO ERY EVE. NEW NAM IS A LTL FASTER ON PCPN EXIT LATR TNGT THAN WE            
HAVCE BEEN CARRYING BUT WILL LEAVE ALONE FOR NOW AND EVALUATE THE               
CONTG INFLOWING GUIDNCE. ZONE FCSTS ACTUALLY LOOK PRETTY GOOD BUT               
WILL UPDATE FOR ELIMINATION AND ADJUSTMNT OF MRNG WORDING AS WELL AS            
ABV MENTND MINOR CHANGES.                                                       
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION...                                                             
CLOSED UPPER LOW STILL POSITIONED TO THE SOUTHWEST OF OUR FA OVER               
CENTRAL NEBRASKA PER WATER VAPOR AND REGIONAL RADAR LOOPS. MODELS               
HANDLE UPPER LOW SIMILARLY THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS...MOVING SLOWLY            
EAST INTO WESTERN IOWA BY EARLY EVENING...THEN LIFTING NORTHEAST AND            
OPENING INTO ELONGATED TROUGH OVER WI BY DAYBREAK SATURDAY. MAIN                
CHALLENGE FOR TODAY WILL BE PRECIP EVOLUTION AS THE LOW MOVES TO OUR            
SOUTH.                                                                          
MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW TROWAL AXIS WELL TO THE NORTH OF OUR                    
FA...COLLAPSING SLIGHTLY SOUTHWARD BY MIDDAY...THEN MORE STRONGLY               
PIVOTING SOUTHEAST INTO SERN SD BY EVENING AS THE LOW MOVES EAST.               
THINK THIS...COMBINED WITH LIMITED RESIDUAL MOISTURE EAST OF THE                
UPPER LOW AS VERY STRONG BOW ECHO MOVES THROUGH NORTHERN MISSOURI               
EARLY THIS MORNING...WILL LEAVE OUR FA LARGELY FREE OF WIDEPSREAD               
RAIN THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. EXCEPTION WILL BE FAR EASTERN AREAS             
WHERE BATCH OF SHOWERS CURRENTLY SOUTH OF KSUX WILL LIFT NORTHEAST              
THROUGH THE MORNING. NAM AND RUC...AND TO SOME EXTENT GFS...SHOW MID            
LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASE OVER MOST OF THE FA BY LATE MORNING...WITH              
BAND OF HEAVIER QPF INDICATED ON NAM AND RUC DEVELOPING THROUGH THE             
MISSOURI VALLEY BY LATE MORNING AS ANOTHER WAVE ROTATES INTO THE                
AREA AROUND THE UPPER LOW. CONCERN I HAVE WITH THIS SOLUTION IS WHAT            
EFFECT THE MISSOURI BOW ECHO WILL HAVE ON AVAILABLE MOISTURE FOR                
THIS WAVE TO WORK WITH. THUS HAVE STARTED MOST OF THE WESTERN AND               
CENTRAL FA OUT WITH ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS AND EVEN DRIZZLE FROM               
LOW STRATUS DECK EARLY THIS MORNING...BRINGING POPS UP INTO THE                 
MID-SCATTERED RANGE TO ACKNOWLEDGE THE WAVE SWINGING NORTH.                     
BULK OF OUR PRECIP CHANCES WILL LIKELY WAIT UNTIL TROWAL PIVOTS                 
SOUTHEAST INTO OUR FA DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING. HAVE STUCK             
WITH HIGH CATEGORICAL POPS ALONG/NORTHWEST OF THE TROWAL AXIS...                
SLOWLY DECREASING MAX POPS AFTER 06Z AS THE SYSTEM SHIFTS EAST AND              
TROWAL WEAKENS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. STILL POTENTIAL FOR A               
HEAVIER BAND OF RAIN DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING FROM LAKE                
ANDES/MITCHELL NORTHEAST TOWARD MARSHALL MN IF TROWAL CAN MAINTAIN              
ITS STRENGTH AND INTENSE LIFT AS IT MOVES SOUTHEAST. HOWEVER...EVEN             
IF TROWAL EFFECTS WEAKEN MORE QUICKLY THAN EXPECTED...OR IF MISSOURI            
BOW ECHO FROM THIS MORNING DISRUPTS MOISTURE STREAM INTO THE TROWAL             
TOO MUCH...WOULD STILL EXPECT A DECENT CHANCE FOR LIGHT RAIN TO                 
ROTATE INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST...SO HIGH POPS WARRANTED                
EVEN IF QPF ENDS UP MUCH LOWER. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW COOLS ENOUGH            
TO MAINTAIN SNOW ABOVE 900MB...SO QUESTION FOR THE OVERNIGHT IS                 
WHETHER ABOVE FREEZING NEAR SURFACE LAYER WILL BE DEEP ENOUGH TO                
MELT THE ICE CRYSTALS OR SHALLOW ENOUGH TO MAINTAIN SNOW TO THE                 
GROUND. HAVE PREDOMINENTLY KEPT RAIN OR SNOW WORDING MOST AREAS...              
AS IT APPEARS COLDEST NEAR SURFACE AIR WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL PRECIP               
STARTS TO WIND DOWN. THINK ACCUMULATION WILL THEREFORE BE LARGELY               
ELEVATION DEPENDENT...AND HAVE TRIED TO PROTRAY THIS IN GRIDS WITH              
AMOUNTS GREATER THAN AN INCH CONFINED TO HIGHER AREAS OF GREGORY                
COUNTY...AND ALSO FROM THE BUFFALO RIDGE WESTWARD INTO HIGHER AREAS             
OF EAST CENTRAL SD.                                                             
STRONG PUSH OF DRY AIR PLOWS INTO THE WESTERN FA BEFORE DAYBREAK                
SATURDAY...THEN CONTINUES QUICKLY EAST THROUGH THE MORNING...WITH               
ABUNDANT SUNSHINE LIKELY BY LATE MORNING IN MOST AREAS. WILL LINGER             
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN OR SNOW IN FAR EASTERN AREAS EARLY IN THE               
MORNING...BUT MORE LIKELY ANY PRECIP WILL HAVE EXITED OUR EASTERN               
COUNTIES BEFORE 03/12Z. SUNSHINE SHOULD HELP TEMPERATURES REBOUND               
INTO THE 50S SATURDAY...WITH GRADUAL WARMUP TO NEAR NORMAL EARLY                
MAY TEMPS FOR SUNDAY THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK.                        
DRY WEATHER SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH TUESDAY. LITTLE AGREEMENT SEEN               
IN UPPER LEVEL PATTERN SOLUTIONS ON GFS/ECMWF FOR MIDDLE OF NEXT                
WEEK...SO HAVE MADE NO CHANGES TO GOING PRECIP CHANCES FOR TUESDAY              
NIGHT/WEDNESDAY AT THIS TIME.                                                   
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
MAIN STORY EARLY THIS MORNING WILL BE THE IFR CIGS AND MVFR VSBYS               
DUE TO FOG.  THE ONLY THING PREVENTING THE FOG FROM BECOMING DENSE              
OR MORE WIDESPREAD WILL BE THE WINDS AROUND THE AREA.  EXPECT THE               
WINDS TO BE STRONG ENOUGH TO PREVENT ANYTHING LOWER THEN MVFR                   
VSBYS.  PRECIP CHANCES WILL BE MINIMAL THIS MORNING EXCEPT KSUX AND             
POSSIBLY KFSD MAY GET BRUSHED BY CURRENT SOUTHERN ACTIVITY MOVING               
NORTH/NORTHEAST.  BEST CHANCE OF RAIN WILL BE WITH WRAP AROUND AND              
HAVE WORDED TAF ACCORDINGLY.  PRECIP WILL BE OFF TO EAST BY 12Z SAT             
AS THE LOW MOVES EWD.                                                           
&&                                                                              
.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
SD...NONE.                                                                      
MN...NONE.                                                                      
IA...NONE.                                                                      
NE...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
WILLIAMS                                                                        
</pre> sd                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR SOUTHEAST SD/SOUTHWEST MN/NORTHWEST IA             
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD                                         
500 AM CDT FRI MAY 2 2008                                                       
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
CLOSED UPPER LOW STILL POSITIONED TO THE SOUTHWEST OF OUR FA OVER               
CENTRAL NEBRASKA PER WATER VAPOR AND REGIONAL RADAR LOOPS. MODELS               
HANDLE UPPER LOW SIMILARLY THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS...MOVING SLOWLY            
EAST INTO WESTERN IOWA BY EARLY EVENING...THEN LIFTING NORTHEAST AND            
OPENING INTO ELONGATED TROUGH OVER WI BY DAYBREAK SATURDAY. MAIN                
CHALLENGE FOR TODAY WILL BE PRECIP EVOLUTION AS THE LOW MOVES TO OUR            
SOUTH.                                                                          
MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW TROWAL AXIS WELL TO THE NORTH OF OUR                    
FA...COLLAPSING SLIGHTLY SOUTHWARD BY MIDDAY...THEN MORE STRONGLY               
PIVOTING SOUTHEAST INTO SERN SD BY EVENING AS THE LOW MOVES EAST.               
THINK THIS...COMBINED WITH LIMITED RESIDUAL MOISTURE EAST OF THE                
UPPER LOW AS VERY STRONG BOW ECHO MOVES THROUGH NORTHERN MISSOURI               
EARLY THIS MORNING...WILL LEAVE OUR FA LARGELY FREE OF WIDEPSREAD               
RAIN THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. EXCEPTION WILL BE FAR EASTERN AREAS             
WHERE BATCH OF SHOWERS CURRENTLY SOUTH OF KSUX WILL LIFT NORTHEAST              
THROUGH THE MORNING. NAM AND RUC...AND TO SOME EXTENT GFS...SHOW MID            
LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASE OVER MOST OF THE FA BY LATE MORNING...WITH              
BAND OF HEAVIER QPF INDICATED ON NAM AND RUC DEVELOPING THROUGH THE             
MISSOURI VALLEY BY LATE MORNING AS ANOTHER WAVE ROTATES INTO THE                
AREA AROUND THE UPPER LOW. CONCERN I HAVE WITH THIS SOLUTION IS WHAT            
EFFECT THE MISSOURI BOW ECHO WILL HAVE ON AVAILABLE MOISTURE FOR                
THIS WAVE TO WORK WITH. THUS HAVE STARTED MOST OF THE WESTERN AND               
CENTRAL FA OUT WITH ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS AND EVEN DRIZZLE FROM               
LOW STRATUS DECK EARLY THIS MORNING...BRINGING POPS UP INTO THE                 
MID-SCATTERED RANGE TO ACKNOWLEDGE THE WAVE SWINGING NORTH.                     
BULK OF OUR PRECIP CHANCES WILL LIKELY WAIT UNTIL TROWAL PIVOTS                 
SOUTHEAST INTO OUR FA DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING. HAVE STUCK             
WITH HIGH CATEGORICAL POPS ALONG/NORTHWEST OF THE TROWAL AXIS...                
SLOWLY DECREASING MAX POPS AFTER 06Z AS THE SYSTEM SHIFTS EAST AND              
TROWAL WEAKENS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. STILL POTENTIAL FOR A               
HEAVIER BAND OF RAIN DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING FROM LAKE                
ANDES/MITCHELL NORTHEAST TOWARD MARSHALL MN IF TROWAL CAN MAINTAIN              
ITS STRENGTH AND INTENSE LIFT AS IT MOVES SOUTHEAST. HOWEVER...EVEN             
IF TROWAL EFFECTS WEAKEN MORE QUICKLY THAN EXPECTED...OR IF MISSOURI            
BOW ECHO FROM THIS MORNING DISRUPTS MOISTURE STREAM INTO THE TROWAL             
TOO MUCH...WOULD STILL EXPECT A DECENT CHANCE FOR LIGHT RAIN TO                 
ROTATE INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST...SO HIGH POPS WARRANTED                
EVEN IF QPF ENDS UP MUCH LOWER. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW COOLS ENOUGH            
TO MAINTAIN SNOW ABOVE 900MB...SO QUESTION FOR THE OVERNIGHT IS                 
WHETHER ABOVE FREEZING NEAR SURFACE LAYER WILL BE DEEP ENOUGH TO                
MELT THE ICE CRYSTALS OR SHALLOW ENOUGH TO MAINTAIN SNOW TO THE                 
GROUND. HAVE PREDOMINENTLY KEPT RAIN OR SNOW WORDING MOST AREAS...              
AS IT APPEARS COLDEST NEAR SURFACE AIR WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL PRECIP               
STARTS TO WIND DOWN. THINK ACCUMULATION WILL THEREFORE BE LARGELY               
ELEVATION DEPENDENT...AND HAVE TRIED TO PROTRAY THIS IN GRIDS WITH              
AMOUNTS GREATER THAN AN INCH CONFINED TO HIGHER AREAS OF GREGORY                
COUNTY...AND ALSO FROM THE BUFFALO RIDGE WESTWARD INTO HIGHER AREAS             
OF EAST CENTRAL SD.                                                             
STRONG PUSH OF DRY AIR PLOWS INTO THE WESTERN FA BEFORE DAYBREAK                
SATURDAY...THEN CONTINUES QUICKLY EAST THROUGH THE MORNING...WITH               
ABUNDANT SUNSHINE LIKELY BY LATE MORNING IN MOST AREAS. WILL LINGER             
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN OR SNOW IN FAR EASTERN AREAS EARLY IN THE               
MORNING...BUT MORE LIKELY ANY PRECIP WILL HAVE EXITED OUR EASTERN               
COUNTIES BEFORE 03/12Z. SUNSHINE SHOULD HELP TEMPERATURES REBOUND               
INTO THE 50S SATURDAY...WITH GRADUAL WARMUP TO NEAR NORMAL EARLY                
MAY TEMPS FOR SUNDAY THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK.                        
DRY WEATHER SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH TUESDAY. LITTLE AGREEMENT SEEN               
IN UPPER LEVEL PATTERN SOLUTIONS ON GFS/ECMWF FOR MIDDLE OF NEXT                
WEEK...SO HAVE MADE NO CHANGES TO GOING PRECIP CHANCES FOR TUESDAY              
NIGHT/WEDNESDAY AT THIS TIME.                                                   
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
MAIN STORY EARLY THIS MORNING WILL BE THE IFR CIGS AND MVFR VSBYS               
DUE TO FOG.  THE ONLY THING PREVENTING THE FOG FROM BECOMING DENSE              
OR MORE WIDESPREAD WILL BE THE WINDS AROUND THE AREA.  EXPECT THE               
WINDS TO BE STRONG ENOUGH TO PREVENT ANYTHING LOWER THEN MVFR                   
VSBYS.  PRECIP CHANCES WILL BE MINIMAL THIS MORNING EXCEPT KSUX AND             
POSSIBLY KFSD MAY GET BRUSHED BY CURRENT SOUTHERN ACTIVITY MOVING               
NORTH/NORTHEAST.  BEST CHANCE OF RAIN WILL BE WITH WRAP AROUND AND              
HAVE WORDED TAF ACCORDINGLY.  PRECIP WILL BE OFF TO EAST BY 12Z SAT             
AS THE LOW MOVES EWD.                                                           
&&                                                                              
.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
SD...NONE.                                                                      
MN...NONE.                                                                      
IA...NONE.                                                                      
NE...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
 JH/HEITKAMP                                                                    
</pre> sd                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX                                             
338 PM CDT FRI MAY 2 2008                                                       
.SHORT TERM...                                                                  
A STRONG UPPER LOW OVER THE NEBRASKA/IOWA BORDER CONTINUES TO MOVE              
OFF TO THE EAST. WATER VAPOR AND UPPER LEVEL EPV SHOWS ONE LAST                 
PIECE OF JET ENERGY TRANSLATING AROUND THE BASE OF THE TROUGH THIS              
EVENING. AS THE TROUGH MOVES OFF A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL PASS                  
THROUGH THE AREA OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW GOOD                
AGREEMENT ON THE TIMING OF THE FRONT WITH THE LATEST RUC MODEL RUNS             
SHOWING A SLIGHTLY FASTER FRONT. HAVE GONE WITH A SLIGHTLY FASTER               
SOLUTION DUE TO THE PROGGED HIGH PRESSURE RISES BEHIND THE FRONT.               
THE FRONT SHOULD ALSO BRING IN SOME SHALLOW LOW LEVEL MOISTURE.                 
HOWEVER...MOISTURE LEVELS WILL LIKELY NOT BE SUFFICIENT FOR A                   
STRATUS DECK. UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL BECOME MORE ZONAL IN THE WAKE OF            
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH.                                                         
LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL BE COOL DESPITE GUSTY WINDS BEHIND THE            
COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. FOR THIS REASON...UNCERTAINTY REMAINS HOW LOW             
THE TEMPERATURES WILL BE ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN PANHANDLE. MODELS              
INDICATE PRESSURE RISES THROUGH THE NIGHTTIME HOURS AND THROUGH                 
SUNRISE TOMORROW. THEREFORE...WINDS MAY NOT COMPLETELY DECOUPLE BY              
DAYBREAK TOMORROW. DESPITE THIS...IT WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE THAT                
TEMPERATURES COULD BRIEFLY DROP BELOW FREEZING IN THE AFOREMENTIONED            
AREAS. JDV                                                                      
.LONG TERM...                                                                   
SOUTHEAST LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL GRADUALLY MODIFY THE COOL AIRMASS                 
SATURDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY. SINCE FRONT IS EXPECTED DEEP                   
INTO SOUTH TEXAS...MOISTURE RETURN INITIALLY WILL BE LOW AND MAY                
BE INSUFFICIENT FOR MUCH OF A CHANCE OF THUNDER AS EARLY AS LATE                
SUNDAY GIVEN WEAK DYNAMIC SUPPORT AT THAT TIME. HAVE TRIMMED                    
MENTION OF THUNDER SATURDAY EVENING A BIT FURTHER WEST INTO                     
SOUTHWESTERN ZONES. MOISTURE SHOULD SURGE NORTHWARD MORE FREELY                 
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY AS DEEPER SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPS. UPPER                
RIDGE AXIS SHARPENING AND EDGING JUST INTO EASTERN ZONES SHOULD                 
CREATE A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR CHANCE OF THUNDER MORE AREAS.                
DIFFICULT TO ANTICIPATE DRY LINE MOVEMENT AND HAVE RETAINED                     
BLANKET CHANCE COVERAGE INTO MONDAY NIGHT. PATTERN AT LEAST                     
SUGGESTS SOME POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS AND WILL CONTINUE                     
MENTION IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.                                       
DIVERGENCE OF MODEL SOLUTIONS FACTORS IN BY TUESDAY AS ECMWF REMAINS            
MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH LOW APPROACHING THROUGH THE SOUTHWEST WHILE               
GFS CAMP IS STILL CUTOFF BACK TO THE WEST. THE GFS AT LEAST HAS                 
TRENDED A BIT MORE TO THE WEST SUGGESTING FURTHER CORRECTION                    
TOWARDS PROGRESSIVE SOLUTION MAY OCCUR IN LATER RUNS. WE HAVE THUS              
RETAINED THE EARLIER LOW PRECIPITATION COVERAGE INDICATED BY THE                
OVERNIGHT SHIFT IN THIS REGARDS FOR TUESDAY. UNCLEAR STILL WHEN                 
LOW WILL FINALLY PASS...QUICKER ECMWF WOULD SUGGEST A DRY                       
WEDNESDAY WHILE SLOWER GFS STILL PAINTS THUNDER CHANCES WEDNESDAY.              
A COMPROMISE SOLUTION IS FAVORED WEDNESDAY...ONCE AGAIN RETAINING               
LOW THUNDER CHANCES.                                                            
DRIER FLOW TO FOLLOW...BUT UPPER FLOW MAY BACK QUICKLY AGAIN BY                 
LATE WEEK AS AN ACTIVE PATTERN MOVES WAVES OFF THE PACIFIC COAST                
INTO THE SOUTHWEST. TIMING OF WAVES THAT FAR OUT DIFFICULT TO                   
ANTICIPATE AND THUNDER CHANCES NOT MENTIONED AT THIS TIME.  MCQUEEN             
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
FRIONA        32  67  40  79  54 /   0   0   0   0  20                          
TULIA         34  66  40  75  54 /   0   0   0   0  20                          
PLAINVIEW     34  67  42  75  56 /   0   0   0   0  20                          
LEVELLAND     36  70  46  78  58 /   0   0   0   0  20                          
LUBBOCK       38  70  48  77  60 /   0   0   0   0  20                          
DENVER CITY   33  71  47  80  60 /   0   0   0   0  20                          
BROWNFIELD    39  70  46  78  61 /   0   0   0   0  20                          
CHILDRESS     42  71  44  78  62 /   0   0   0   0  10                          
SPUR          40  70  47  77  62 /   0   0   0   0  20                          
ASPERMONT     43  72  47  79  63 /   0   0   0   0  20                          
&&                                                                              
.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
NONE.                                                                           
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
01/05                                                                           
</pre> tx                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION                          
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPOKANE WA                                             
505 AM PDT SAT MAY 3 2008                                                       
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
A WEAKENING WEATHER SYSTEM WILL CROSS THE INLAND NORTHWEST TODAY AND            
TONIGHT...BUT WILL GENERALLY PRODUCE LITTLE MORE THAN CONSIDERABLE              
CLOUDINESS. CLEARING SKIES AND WARMING TEMPERATURES WILL ACCENTUATE             
THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEKEND. FAIR WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH              
EARLY NEXT WEEK BEFORE MUCH COOLER WEATHER ARRIVES BY MID-WEEK.                 
&&                                                                              
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
TODAY AND TONIGHT...SATELLITE PICTURES THIS MORNING STILL                       
DEPICTING SLOW MOVING AND RATHER ELONGATED UPPER LEVEL TROF                     
EXTENDING FROM NORTHERN BC SOUTH TO NORCAL. NOT MUCH ACTIVITY OR                
PRECIPITATION GOING ON WITHIN THE VICINITY OF THIS TROF...OTHER                 
THAN A SMALL BATCH OF ELEVATED PRECIP IN THE SOUTH WA CASCADES.                 
THERE WAS ALSO A SMALL AREA OF LIGHT RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK                  
SURFACE FRONT EXTENDING FROM SOUTHERN VANCOUVER ISLAND TO AROUND                
44/128. THE LATTER FEATURE WILL GENERALLY BE A NON-PLAYER FOR OUR               
AREA TODAY...AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROF IS EXPECTED TO SHEAR APART                 
EVEN FURTHER WITH STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGING EXPECTED TO ENSUE                  
BETWEEN 130-140W. THIS WILL SLOW THE EASTWARD PUSH OF THE FRONT TO              
A VIRTUAL CRAWL...NOT TO MENTION...IT IS LIKELY TO SHALLOW TO MAKE              
IT OVER THE CASCADES ANYWAY. OF MORE CONCERN IS THE BATCH OF                    
PRECIP OVER THE SOUTHERN WA CASCADES. NONE OF THE SHORT RANGE                   
MODELS ARE HANDLING THIS VERY WELL...HOWEVER IT DOES LOOSELY                    
CORRELATE WITH AN AREA OF MODERATE UPPER LEVEL DIFLUENCE AHEAD OF               
A ELONGATING VORT MAX CENTERED NEAR MT ST. HELENS. WATER VAPOR                  
LOOPS SUGGEST THIS FEATURE IS TRACKING TO A ENE SIMILAR TO WHAT                 
THE 06Z NAM WAS FORECASTING...BUT HANDLED EVEN BETTER BY THE RUC.               
THE GFS SEEMED TO BE UNDERDONE AS OF 06Z WITH THE FEATURE AS DID                
THE ECMWF. GIVEN THE TRACK OF THE VORT LOBE AND ASSOCIATED UPPER                
LEVEL DIFLUENCE...WE WILL KEEP POPS FOR THIS MORNING LOCKED NEAR                
THE CASCADES. THIS IS NOT DUE TO OROGRAPHICS HOWEVER AS THE MEAN                
FLOW BELOW 700 MBS IS EXCEEDINGLY LIGHT AND RATHER VARIABLE. QPF                
VALUES SHOULD BE RATHER LIGHT AS FORCING AND POTENTIAL INSTABILITY              
ARE VERY WEAK. ALSO SURFACE DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS ALONG THE CASCADES             
ARE RATHER HIGH. IF THE NAM IS CORRECT THIS FEATURE WILL GENERALLY              
WEAKEN OR DISSOLVE AS THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL TROF...CURRENTLY OFF                 
THE COAST APPROACHES THE CASCADE CREST AROUND 00Z. NOT TERRIBLY                 
EXCITED OR CONFIDENT MEASURABLE PRECIP WILL DEVELOP ANYWHERE                    
ACROSS THE CWA TODAY...AS TIME HEIGHT SECTIONS GENERALLY SHOW ALL               
MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE TROF WILL BE RESTRICTED ABOVE 700 MBS.                    
SUSPECT THAT IF PRECIP DOES FALL...MUCH OF IT WILL BE IN THE FORM               
OF SPRINKLES.                                                                   
FOR TONIGHT THE MODELS CONTINUE TO HAVE TROUBLES IN REGARD TO THE               
INCOMING TROF AXIS. THE NAM TAKES THE TROF ACROSS OUR CWA AS A                  
WEAK OPEN WAVE AND THEN DIGS IT SOUTH INTO EASTERN OREGON                       
OVERNIGHT. MEANWHILE THE GFS AND ECMWF CLOSE OFF THE TROF AND DROP              
A SIGNIFICANT CLOSED LOW DUE SOUTH THROUGH WESTERN OREGON WHILE                 
BUILDING THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LEVEL RIDGE INTO THE NW CORNER                
OF OUR CWA. THE SREF ALSO EXHIBITS VAST DIFFERENCES WITH VERY                   
LARGE HEIGHT SPREADS FOR SUCH A CLOSE TIME PERIOD...BUT EVEN ITS                
MEAN TENDS TO FAVOR THE GFS/ECMWF SOLUTION. THIS SUGGESTS EVEN                  
TONIGHT SHOULD BE A RELATIVELY DRY PERIOD OVER MUCH OF THE CWA AS               
MOST OF THE MEASURABLE PRECIP WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF OUR CWA. BEST                
CHANCES IN THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD WILL LIKELY OCCUR ACROSS THE SE                 
CORNER OF THE CWA IN A REGION OF WEAK TO MODERATE ISENTROPIC                    
ASCENT AND GOOD MOISTURE AVAILABILITY ON THE 290K SURFACE. EVEN                 
SO...CROSS SECTIONAL ANALYSIS SHOWS OVER WEAK SYNOPTIC SCALE                    
LIFT...SO POPS WILL ONLY BE IN THE LOW CHANCE CATEGORY. FX                      
SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH                 
DROPPING A WEAK LOW SOUTH TO CALIFORNIA AND BRINGING A FLAT RIDGE               
OVER THE REGION ON SUNDAY. AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW SINKS SOUTH THE               
FORECAST AREA TRANSITIONS TO NORTH THEN WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. A                  
MUCH DRIER AIRMASS MOVES OVERHEAD AND 850MB TEMPERATURES WARM TO                
+11C. GOOD MIXING POTENTIAL WILL RESULT IN MAX TEMPERATURES IN THE              
UPPER 60S TO MID 70S ACROSS THE REGION ON SUNDAY. WESTERLY FLOW                 
CONTINUES ON MONDAY WITH A WEAK SHORTWAVE CLIPPING OUR NORTHERN                 
ZONES. WITH THE BEST FORCING REMAINING TO OUR NORTH...SHOWERS WILL              
BE CONFINED TO THE IDAHO PANHANDLE MOUNTAINS AND MAINLY IN THE                  
AFTERNOON. INCREASED CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE NORTH WILL KEEP                     
TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY COOLER THERE ON MONDAY WHILE THE REMAINDER                
OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL SEE HIGHS CLOSE TO SUNDAYS READINGS.                  
HEIGHTS WILL RISE A BIT MONDAY NIGHT AS THE NEXT WEAK SHORTWAVE                 
APPROACHES THE COAST.                                                           
TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...A WEAK WAVE ROLLS THROUGH THE INLAND                   
NORTHWEST TUESDAY BRINGING SOME CLOUDS BUT LITTLE IN THE WAY OF                 
PRECIPITATION. MODEL AGREEMENT CONTINUES TO BE FAIRLY GOOD THAT A               
STRONGER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL AFFECT THE AREA STARTING TUESDAY              
NIGHT AS A CLOSED LOW DROPS DOWN FROM BRITISH COLUMBIA AND HANGS OUT            
OVER THE REGION THROUGH FRIDAY. THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE               
DETAILS OF THE CLOSED LOW SO ONLY MINOR CHANGES MADE TO THE EXTENDED            
PORTION OF THE FORECAST. EXPECT BREEZY CONDITIONS ON WEDNESDAY AS               
THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS AND COLD AIR ADVECTION PUSHES            
IN FROM THE WEST. INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION WILL SEND             
TEMPERATURES ON A COOLING TREND WITH HIGHS DIPPING SEVERAL DEGREES              
BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. /KELCH                 
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
VFR OVERCAST SKIES WILL LIKELY CONTINUE AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH 12Z            
SUN AHEAD OF ELONGATING AND FAIRLY WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROF. THIS TROF             
WILL LIKELY PRODUCE PRECIP WITH THE BEST CHANCES OCCURRING NEAR THE             
CASCADES TODAY AND ACROSS THE BLUES AND CLEARWATERS OVERNIGHT. CIGS             
COULD BRIEFLY LOWER TO MVFR AT KPUW OVERNIGHT...SPCLY AFT 05Z...IN              
RESPONSE TO THE PRECIP...BUT CHANCE WAS TOO SMALL TO INCLUDE IN TAF.            
FX                                                                              
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
SPOKANE        61  40  68  44  69  43 /  10  10  10  10  10   0                 
COEUR D`ALENE  61  38  68  41  68  41 /  10  10  10  10  20  10                 
PULLMAN        61  40  66  45  69  45 /  10  20  10  10  10   0                 
LEWISTON       68  44  72  48  74  48 /  10  10  10   0   0   0                 
COLVILLE       65  38  71  40  70  40 /  10  10  10  10  10  10                 
SANDPOINT      61  36  66  37  66  37 /   0   0  10  10  20  10                 
KELLOGG        60  39  66  40  65  39 /  10  20  10  20  20  10                 
MOSES LAKE     67  42  75  44  76  43 /  10  10   0   0   0   0                 
WENATCHEE      66  47  73  49  73  49 /  10  10   0   0   0   0                 
OMAK           66  40  72  42  74  40 /  10  10   0   0   0   0                 
&&                                                                              
.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
ID...NONE.                                                                      
WA...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</pre> wa                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI                                           
937 PM CDT FRI MAY 2 2008                                                       
.UPDATED...                                                                     
MADE SEVERAL TWEAKS TO THE FORECAST FROM THIS EVENING INTO SATURDAY             
MORNING.  STACKED LOW CURRENTLY LOCATED NEAR KMCW/KAEL/KAUM AREA AT             
02Z.  SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS SHORT WAVE ROTATING NORTH AND THEN                
NORTHWEST AROUND THE MAIN LOW THIS EVENING...IN FUJIWHARA FASHION.              
THIS HAS CAUSED THE MAIN CIRCULATION TO SLOW AND RETROGRADE A BIT               
THE LAST FEW HOURS.  BUT ONCE THIS SECONDARY WAVE GETS ON THE WEST              
AND SOUTHWEST SIDE...THE ENTIRE THING SHOULD TRANSLATE EAST.                    
DRY SLOT HAS SURGED ALL THE WAY TO NORTHEAST WI...WHILE DEFORMATION             
AXIS IS SET UP FROM WESTERN IA UP THROUGH NORTHEAST MN. EXPECTING               
THE DEFORMATION PRECIPITATION SHIELD TO SHIFT INTO THE FORECAST AREA            
OVERNIGHT...AND MOVE EAST OF THE AREA BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON.                    
PREVIOUS MODEL SOLUTIONS AND EVEN THE NEW 00Z NAM STILL SUGGESTING              
WE COULD SEE COLD ENOUGH AIR FOR SNOW ON THE BACK EDGE.  HOWEVER...             
THERE REMAINS A NARROW WEDGE OF WARMER AIR NEAR THE SURFACE TO                  
LIMIT EXTENT OF SNOW. ALSO...MODELS MAY BE A BIT COOL GIVEN CURRENT             
TEMPERATURE/DEWPOINT PROFILE UNDER THE DEFORMATION AREA.  HAVE                  
DECIDED TO GO WITH A SLIGHTLY WARMER SCENARIO THAN WHAT WE HAD                  
GOING IN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.  THUS...LIMITING THE SNOW MENTION TO            
A FEW HOURS LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING...AND ALSO                 
LIMITING THE EXTENT OF THIS COVERAGE.                                           
UPDATED FORECAST WAS SENT AT 928 PM.                                            
MW                                                                              
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION...                                                             
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT                                      
SEVERE WEATHER POSSIBILITY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING...             
AND SNOW POSSIBILITIES LATE TONIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING ARE THE                
PRIMARY CONCERNS WITH THIS PART OF THE FORECAST.                                
AT 3 PM...A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WAS LOCATED ACROSS SOUTH                 
CENTRAL MINNESOTA. A WARM/OCCLUDED FRONT EXTENDED FROM SHEBOYGAN                
WISCONSIN TO AUSTIN MINNESOTA. NORTH OF THIS FRONT...THE                        
TEMPERATURES RANGED FROM THE MID 40S TO MID 50S. MEANWHILE                      
TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE 60S AND 70S SOUTH OF THIS FRONT. RESIDUAL              
CLOUDS FROM THIS MORNINGS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAS LIMITED                 
THE RECOVERY OF INSTABILITY IN THE WARM SECTOR OF THIS                          
SYSTEM. AS OF 02.19Z...THERE WAS A NARROW BAND OF SURFACE BASED                 
CAPES IN THE EXCESS OF 500 J/KG FROM DUBUQUE TO MASON CITY. THE                 
EFFECTIVE SHEAR IS RUNNING AROUND 30 KNOTS. THERE WAS A FEW                     
FUNNEL CLOUD REPORTS ACROSS NORTHEAST IOWA EARLIER IN THE AFTERNOON.            
IN ADDITION...A 52 KNOT WIND GUST WAS REPORT AT A SCHOOL NET IN                 
MASON CITY AT 308 PM.                                                           
THE 02.18Z RUC IS CONTINUING TO SHOW THAT A NARROW RIBBON OF MOST               
UNSTABLE CAPES BETWEEN 500 TO 800 J/KG WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTHEAST               
IOWA...SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA...AND SOUTHWEST...WEST CENTRAL...AND                 
CENTRAL WISCONSIN LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. BOTH THE 0-3 KM              
AND 0-6 KM SHEAR ARE RUNNING AROUND 30 KNOTS. WITH QUITE A BIT OF               
CLOUD COVER...IT LOOKS LIKE WE WILL HAVE A VERY LIMITED TIME                    
PERIOD FOR ANY SEVERE WEATHER. WE WILL HAVE TO WATCH THIS CLOSELY               
THIS EVENING...BUT AT THIS TIME IT LOOKS LIKE IT WILL NOT BE A                  
WIDESPREAD EVENT. IT CONTINUES TO LOOK LIKE THE THREAT FOR ANY                  
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE OVER BY 8 PM THIS EVENING.                              
BEHIND THIS SYSTEM...NORTHWEST WINDS WILL GUST INTO THE 20 TO                   
30 MPH RANGE...AND THERE WILL BE STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION. WITH                
THE MODELS CONTINUING TO SHOW THAT THE 850 MB TEMPERATURES WILL                 
FALL INTO THE -2C TO 0C RANGE LATE TONIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING.                
AS THE DEFORMATION BAND MOVES EAST ACROSS THE AREA. THE RAIN WILL               
OCCASIONALLY CHANGE OVER SNOW AT TIMES. WITH TEMPERATURES ABOVE                 
FREEZING...I AM NOT EXPECTING ANY ACCUMULATIONS. HOWEVER IF THE                 
RATES ARE HIGH ENOUGH...YOU MAY SEE A BRIEF ACCUMULATION...BUT IT               
WILL THEN MELT QUICKLY.                                                         
IT CONTINUES TO LOOK LIKE THE FRONTOGENETIC FORCING WILL QUICKLY                
WEAKEN ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON. AS A THIS OCCUR...THE DEFORMATION                 
BAND OF PRECIPITATION WILL QUICKLY DISSIPATE.                                   
.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY                                              
THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE WITH THE TIMING AND                
LOCATIONS OF A SERIES OF TROUGHS MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS THE UNITED              
STATES DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. THE RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY HAS NOT              
BEEN THAT GREAT DURING THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS. AS A RESULT...THERE IS            
VERY LITTLE CONFIDENCE IN THIS PART OF THE FORECAST.                            
ONE OF THE FEW THINGS THAT HAS BEEN CONSISTENTLY SHOWING UP IN THE              
MODELS IS A CHANCE OF SHOWERS ON MONDAY ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL AND                
CENTRAL WISCONSIN AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. SINCE               
THIS HAS BEEN A CONSISTENT SIGNAL...I HAVE ADDED A SMALL CHANCE OF              
PRECIPITATION FOR THIS TIME PERIOD.                                             
ONE THING THAT IS INTERESTING IS THAT THE 02.12Z GFS AND ECMWF ARE              
NOW IN AGREEMENT THAT A TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION ON                  
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. I CURRENTLY HAVE A 20 TO 30 PERCENT                  
CHANCE OF SHOWERS DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. IF THIS TREND CONTINUES...           
WE WILL HAVE TO RAISE THESE PROBABILITIES A BIT HIGHER OVER THE                 
WEEKEND.                                                                        
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING                        
STRONG AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE FROM WESTERN IA INTO WEST                 
CENTRAL WI BY EARLY THIS EVENING. THIS WILL SWING A COLD FRONT                  
NORTHEAST INTO THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON WITH A BROKEN LINE OF                    
SHRA/TS. A FEW OF THESE STORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE WITH DAMAGING WINDS            
AND HAIL. INCLUDED 2SM +TSRA WITH GUSTS TO 40 MPH AT THE KRST/KLSE              
TAF SITES IN THE 20-22Z TIME FRAME. THE COLD FRONT AND ANY LINGERING            
SHRA ACTIVITY WILL EXIT NORTHEAST OF THE AREA BY 03Z THIS EVENING.              
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AND SHRA ACTIVITY...CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO            
IMPROVE INTO VFR/MVFR CATEGORY. AS THE LOW MOVES INTO NORTHERN                  
WI/UPPER MICHIGAN TOWARD MORNING...WINDS WILL SHIFT AND BECOME GUSTY            
FROM THE NORTHWEST. COLDER AIR FILTERING INTO THE AREA ON NORTHWEST             
WINDS WILL PRODUCE A MIXTURE OF -SHRASN AFTER 08Z...WITH CIGS                   
LOWERING INTO MVFR RANGE.                                                       
&&                                                                              
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
WI...NONE.                                                                      
MN...NONE.                                                                      
IA...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
01/01/01                                                                        
</pre> wi                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI                                           
351 PM CDT FRI MAY 2 2008                                                       
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT                                      
SEVERE WEATHER POSSIBILITY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING...             
AND SNOW POSSIBILITIES LATE TONIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING ARE THE                
PRIMARY CONCERNS WITH THIS PART OF THE FORECAST.                                
AT 3 PM...A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WAS LOCATED ACROSS SOUTH                 
CENTRAL MINNESOTA. A WARM/OCCLUDED FRONT EXTENDED FROM SHEBOYGAN                
WISCONSIN TO AUSTIN MINNESOTA. NORTH OF THIS FRONT...THE                        
TEMPERATURES RANGED FROM THE MID 40S TO MID 50S. MEANWHILE                      
TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE 60S AND 70S SOUTH OF THIS FRONT. RESIDUAL              
CLOUDS FROM THIS MORNINGS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAS LIMITED                 
THE RECOVERY OF INSTABILITY IN THE WARM SECTOR OF THIS                          
SYSTEM. AS OF 02.19Z...THERE WAS A NARROW BAND OF SURFACE BASED                 
CAPES IN THE EXCESS OF 500 J/KG FROM DUBUQUE TO MASON CITY. THE                 
EFFECTIVE SHEAR IS RUNNING AROUND 30 KNOTS. THERE WAS A FEW                     
FUNNEL CLOUD REPORTS ACROSS NORTHEAST IOWA EARLIER IN THE AFTERNOON.            
IN ADDITION...A 52 KNOT WIND GUST WAS REPORT AT A SCHOOL NET IN                 
MASON CITY AT 308 PM.                                                           
THE 02.18Z RUC IS CONTINUING TO SHOW THAT A NARROW RIBBON OF MOST               
UNSTABLE CAPES BETWEEN 500 TO 800 J/KG WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTHEAST               
IOWA...SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA...AND SOUTHWEST...WEST CENTRAL...AND                 
CENTRAL WISCONSIN LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. BOTH THE 0-3 KM              
AND 0-6 KM SHEAR ARE RUNNING AROUND 30 KNOTS. WITH QUITE A BIT OF               
CLOUD COVER...IT LOOKS LIKE WE WILL HAVE A VERY LIMITED TIME                    
PERIOD FOR ANY SEVERE WEATHER. WE WILL HAVE TO WATCH THIS CLOSELY               
THIS EVENING...BUT AT THIS TIME IT LOOKS LIKE IT WILL NOT BE A                  
WIDESPREAD EVENT. IT CONTINUES TO LOOK LIKE THE THREAT FOR ANY                  
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE OVER BY 8 PM THIS EVENING.                              
BEHIND THIS SYSTEM...NORTHWEST WINDS WILL GUST INTO THE 20 TO                   
30 MPH RANGE...AND THERE WILL BE STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION. WITH                
THE MODELS CONTINUING TO SHOW THAT THE 850 MB TEMPERATURES WILL                 
FALL INTO THE -2C TO 0C RANGE LATE TONIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING.                
AS THE DEFORMATION BAND MOVES EAST ACROSS THE AREA. THE RAIN WILL               
OCCASIONALLY CHANGE OVER SNOW AT TIMES. WITH TEMPERATURES ABOVE                 
FREEZING...I AM NOT EXPECTING ANY ACCUMULATIONS. HOWEVER IF THE                 
RATES ARE HIGH ENOUGH...YOU MAY SEE A BRIEF ACCUMULATION...BUT IT               
WILL THEN MELT QUICKLY.                                                         
IT CONTINUES TO LOOK LIKE THE FRONTOGENETIC FORCING WILL QUICKLY                
WEAKEN ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON. AS A THIS OCCUR...THE DEFORMATION                 
BAND OF PRECIPITATION WILL QUICKLY DISSIPATE.                                   
.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY                                              
THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE WITH THE TIMING AND                
LOCATIONS OF A SERIES OF TROUGHS MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS THE UNITED              
STATES DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. THE RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY HAS NOT BEEN         
THAT GREAT DURING THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS. AS A RESULT...THERE IS                 
VERY LITTLE CONFIDENCE IN THIS PART OF THE FORECAST.                            
ONE OF THE FEW THINGS THAT HAS BEEN CONSISTENTLY SHOWING UP IN THE              
MODELS IS A CHANCE OF SHOWERS ON MONDAY ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL AND                
CENTRAL WISCONSIN AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. SINCE               
THIS HAS BEEN A CONSISTENT SIGNAL...I HAVE ADDED A SMALL CHANCE OF              
PRECIPITATION FOR THIS TIME PERIOD.                                             
ONE THING THAT IS INTERESTING IS THAT THE 02.12Z GFS AND ECMWF ARE              
NOW IN AGREEMENT THAT A TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION ON                  
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. I CURRENTLY HAVE A 20 TO 30 PERCENT                  
CHANCE OF SHOWERS DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. IF THIS TREND CONTINUES...           
WE WILL HAVE TO RAISE THESE PROBABILITIES A BIT HIGHER OVER THE                 
WEEKEND.                                                                        
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING                        
STRONG AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE FROM WESTERN IA INTO WEST                 
CENTRAL WI BY EARLY THIS EVENING. THIS WILL SWING A COLD FRONT                  
NORTHEAST INTO THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON WITH A BROKEN LINE OF                    
SHRA/TS. A FEW OF THESE STORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND        
HAIL. INCLUDED 2SM +TSRA WITH GUSTS TO 40 MPH AT THE KRST/KLSE TAF              
SITES IN THE 20-22Z TIME FRAME. THE COLD FRONT AND ANY LINGERING                
SHRA ACTIVITY WILL EXIT NORTHEAST OF THE AREA BY 03Z THIS EVENING.              
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AND SHRA ACTIVITY...CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO            
IMPROVE INTO VFR/MVFR CATEGORY. AS THE LOW MOVES INTO NORTHERN WI/UPPER         
MICHIGAN TOWARD MORNING...WINDS WILL SHIFT AND BECOME GUSTY FROM THE            
NORTHWEST. COLDER AIR FILTERING INTO THE AREA ON NORTHWEST WINDS                
WILL PRODUCE A MIXTURE OF -SHRASN AFTER 08Z...WITH CIGS LOWERING                
INTO MVFR RANGE.                                                                
&&                                                                              
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
WI...NONE.                                                                      
MN...NONE.                                                                      
IA...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
01/01/01                                                                        
</pre> wi                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI                                  
212 PM CDT FRI MAY 2 2008                                                       
.SHORT TERM...                                                                  
THE WINDOW FOR SEVERE THREAT IS BEGINNING. THERE IS STILL A SMALL               
CHANCE OF SEVERE STORMS...ALONG WITH ISOLATED TORNADOES LATE THIS               
AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING. GOOD UPPER DIFLUENCE AS 95 KT                 
UPPER JET PUSHES INTO THE LAKE MICHIGAN AREA THIS EVENING.                      
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING CLOUDS THINNING BEHIND EARLY                  
AFTERNOON BAND OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN WI AND                      
NORTHERN IL. LI`S HAVE RISEN TO -3.                                             
EXPECT MAIN THREAT JUST AHEAD OF DRY PUNCH THAT WILL MOVE INTO THE              
FORECAST AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING. WATER                 
VAPOR LOOP SHOWS DRYING JUST NOW PUSHING INTO THE EXTREME SOUTHWEST.            
FORECAST SOUNDINGS OFF 12Z NAM AND 17Z RUC HAVE MARGINAL                        
CAPE...BUT THIS MAY BE UNDERDONE WITH A LITTLE HEATING. ALSO A                  
BRIEF TORNADO POTENTIAL WITH HELICITY RAISING TO AROUND 230. EHI                
VALUES ARE NEAR 1...BUT WITH A LITTLE MORE CAPE THOSE WOULD BE                  
HIGHER. HOWEVER RUC IS SHOWING THAT DRY PUNCH PUSHES IN FAIRLY                  
RAPIDLY. IF THIS HAPPENS LIMITED INSTABILITY MAY NOT BE ENOUGH FOR              
DEEP CONVECTION.                                                                
AT LEAST THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA COULD BE IN THE                 
WARM SECTOR...BEFORE OCCLUDED FRONT PUSHES IN FROM THE                          
SOUTHWEST...AND DRY AIR PUSHES INTO THE MID LEVELS AROUND THE                   
MATURE CLOSED UPPER LOW. THEN DRY AIR WILL SHUT OFF                             
THUNDERSTORM...AND SHOWER POTENTIAL THIS EVENING. WINDS SHIFTED TO              
SOUTHWEST WITH GUSTS TO 33 KNOTS WITH OCCLUSION.                                
WRAP AROUND PRECIP EXPECTED ON SATURDAY AS UPPER LOW OPENS AND                  
RESULTANT TROUGH MOVES ACROSS WISCONSIN AND NORTHERN ILLINOIS.                  
SHORTWAVE ON GFS FOR SUNDAY NIGHT IS NOT AS PRONOUNCED AS                       
YESTERDAY AND IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH ECMWF. BOTH 12Z GFS AND                 
12Z ECMWF HAVE A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH MONDAY. BOTH                
NAM AND GFS HAVE STEEP LAPSE RATES...CAPES NEAR 700 OFF THE GFS.                
THEREFORE WILL GO WITH A SMALL CHANCE OF SHOWERS.                               
.LONG TERM...                                                                   
NEW ECMWF IS NOW TRENDING TOWARD THE GFS IN THE MID/LATE PERIODS.               
THEREFORE WILL TREND WETTER FOR TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT.                          
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...MAIN ISSUE FOR TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY IS EXPECTED                  
CONVECTION LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. THUNDERSTORMS AND                   
ASSOCIATED MVFR/IFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES ASSOCIATED WITH LOW               
LEVEL JET NOSE PUSHING NORTHEAST OF THE AREA.                                   
NEXT ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED BETWEEN 20Z FRIDAY AND 02Z                 
SATURDAY...AS COLD FRONT PUSHES ACROSS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN. EXPECT               
PREVAILING MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES WITH THUNDERSTORMS...WITH             
SOME IFR VISIBILITIES AND CEILINGS POSSIBLE IN STRONGEST STORMS.                
WINDS GRADUALLY INCREASE IN MAGNITUDE AND SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST AND            
WEST ON SATURDAY. MVFR CEILINGS AND SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS ARE                  
EXPECTED AS UPPER LOW SHIFTS ACROSS THE AREA.                                   
&&                                                                              
.MARINE...STABLE MARINE LAYER EXPECTED TO PREVENT MIXING OF WINDS               
ALOFT DOWN TO THE SURFACE TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. THIS SHOULD KEEP                
WINDS BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA...DESPITE AN INCREASING               
SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT.                                                      
&&                                                                              
.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
WI...NONE.                                                                      
LM...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHORT/LONG TERM...HENTZ                                                         
AVIATION/MARINE...WOOD                                                          
</pre> wi                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY                                             
124 AM EDT SUN MAY 4 2008                                                       
.SHORT TERM.../THE REST OF TONIGHT/                                             
A FEW MINOR CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE FORECAST FOR THE REST OF                   
TONIGHT. LATEST SURFACE OBS INDICATE THAT HOURLY TEMPERATURES HAVE A            
BEEN JUST SLIGHTLY SLOWER TO FALL THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST...SO                 
ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS WITH A GENERAL DEGREE OR              
TWO INCREASE IN HOURLY TEMPERATURES THROUGH 12Z. ALSO INCREASED                 
OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES BY A DEGREE OR TWO ACROSS THE BOARD PER              
THE AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE OB TRENDS AND TOWARD THE 18Z SLIGHTLY                
WARMER MAVMOS NUMBERS. ALSO REMOVED MENTION OF PRECIPITATION FROM THE           
OVERNIGHT PERIOD AS CURRENT RADAR IMAGERY INDICATES THAT ANY REMAIN             
ISOLATED RAIN SHOWERS WILL HAVE MOVED OUT OF EASTERN KENTUCKY BY 3Z.            
THERE WAS ALSO A BIT OF EVENING AND OTHER OUTDATED WORDING IN THE               
FIRST PERIOD OF THE ZONES...SO ALL OF THAT WAS REMOVED AS WELL AND              
REPLACED WITH FRESH WORDING. ALSO RERAN THE WEATHER AND QPF FORECASTS           
TO REFLECT THE CHANGES MADE TO OVERNIGHT PRECIPITATION CHANCES. WINDS           
WILL STAY STRONG AND PERSISTENT ENOUGH TO KEEP FOG OUT OF THE                   
PICTURE TONIGHT. REST OF FORECAST WAS IN GOOD SHAPE. UPDATED ZONES              
ALREADY OUT.                                                                    
THE PREVIOUS SHORT TERM FORECAST DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...                          
/TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/                                                  
THE OCCLUDED FRONT HAS COMPLETED IT/S TRACK THROUGH EASTERN KENTUCKY.           
HOWEVER...SURFACE TROUGH STILL HAS TO MAKE IT THROUGH THE AREA. THIS            
SFC BOUNDARY IS CURRENT SLIDING THROUGH SOUTHEASTERN INDIANA AND WEST           
CENTRAL KENTUCKY. A BAND OF SHOWERS...AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE                    
DEVELOPED AHEAD OF THIS BOUNDARY WITH THE AID OF SURFACE HEATING IN A           
CLEARING SLOT BETWEEN THE TWO FEATURES. UNFORTUNATELY...SHORT TERM              
MODELS DO NOT HAVE A VERY GOOD HANDLE ON THE WEATHER ASSOCIATED WITH            
THE TROUGH. SO FORECAST CHALLENGE WILL FOCUS ON THE POTENTIAL FOR               
WEATHER AS THE SURFACE TROUGH ENTERS EASTERN KENTUCKY LATE LATE THIS            
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. MORE SPECIFICALLY...WILL ONGOING SHOWER            
ACTIVITY CONTINUE TO DEVELOP SOUTHWARD ALONG THE TROUGH AS IT MOVES             
INTO EASTERN KENTUCKY.                                                          
GOES SOUNDING DATA INDICATES A WEAK MID LEVEL CAP IN PLACE AHEAD OF             
THE LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN SE INDIANA...BECOMING                  
SLIGHTLY STRONGER FURTHER SOUTH IN SOUTH CENTRAL KENTUCKY. SATELLITE            
LOOP SHOWS SOME PARTIAL CLEARING BEGINNING TO WORK IT/S WAY INTO                
EASTERN KENTUCKY AS WELL. RUC MESOANALYSIS SEEMS TO HAVE PICKED UP ON           
THE PARTIAL CLEARING AS IT SHOWS AN INCREASE IN SFC BASED                       
INSTABILITY...FROM 0 TO -3 LATE THIS AFTERNOON AS WELL AS AN INCREASE           
IN CAPE...FROM 50 TO 400 J/KG. WHILE NOT IMPRESSIVE...THIS SHOULD BE            
ENOUGH TO GENERATE SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY AN ISOLATED              
THUNDERSHOWER OR TWO AS THE TROUGH MOVES INTO THE AREA...DESPITE THE            
WEAK CAP. REGIONAL RADAR LOOP SEEMS TO CONFIRM THIS SCENARIO AS THERE           
IS A GRADUAL EXPANSION OF SHOWERS BUILDING TO THE SOUTH.                        
WILL CARRY A 20 TO 40 POP FOR LATE THIS AFTERNOON...AND EARLY                   
EVENING TO COVER ANY POSSIBLE DEVELOPMENT. HIGHER POPS WILL BE                  
CARRIED IN THE NORTH...WHILE LOWEST POPS ARE RESTRICTED TO THE                  
SOUTHWEST. THE THREAT OF PRECIP SHOULD END THIS EVENING WITH LOSS OF            
SFC HEATING.                                                                    
DRY WEATHER WITH SEASONABLE TEMPS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE REMAINDER            
OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. MONDAY MORNING WILL BE CHILLY IN THE                  
VALLEYS AND AGAIN TUESDAY MORNING IN THE EAST. MOST LIKELY NIGHT FOR            
A STRONG RIDGE VALLEY SPLIT WILL BE MONDAY NIGHT AS A WEAK SE                   
GRADIENT WIND BEGINS TO DEVELOP ON THE WEST SIDE OF HIGH PRESSURE.              
OTHERWISE...USED A BLEND OF MOS GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS. CLOSER TO THE               
COOLER MET FOR MONDAY UNDER NORTHERLY FLOW...AND CLOSER TO THE WARMER           
MAV ON TUESDAY UNDER SOUTHERLY FLOW.                                            
.LONG TERM.../TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/                                         
THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS FOR THE LONG TERM PERIOD.              
GENERALLY SIDED CLOSER TO THE ECMWF AND HPC MANUAL PROGS THROUGH THE            
PERIOD. THE THE EARLY PORTION OF THE FORECAST PERIOD SHOULD BE                  
DRY...AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHEAST CONUS KEEPS US DRY. BY                
WEDNESDAY...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE               
SOUTHERN PLAINS...WITH ANOTHER LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION. A               
COLD FRONT IN BETWEEN THE LOWS WILL DROP SOUTH DURING THE                       
DAY...INCREASING THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE FRONT            
SHOULD STALL OUT AND BEGIN TO MOVE BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT                   
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW OVER THE PLAINS MOVES EAST. THIS LOW                 
SHOULD THEN MOVE OVER KENTUCKY LATE THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT.                
THIS WILL KEEP THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AREA.            
THE LOW SHOULD BE EXITING OFF TO THE EAST FRIDAY...BUT SHOULD STILL             
BE CLOSE ENOUGH TO KEEP A CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE AREA. DRY WEATHER            
IS EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN                
OVER THE AREA.                                                                  
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION.../06Z TO 06Z/...UPDATED                                              
FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS NOW WELL TO OUR EAST WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING            
INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST. ONE BAND OF STRATOCU WILL SHIFT FROM             
WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE AREA OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS AND THIS             
WILL BRINGS CIGS THAT TEETER AROUND THE 3K FT LEVEL. ONCE THIS                  
PUSHES EAST... VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD               
WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE SURFACE WINDS.                                          
&&                                                                              
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                        
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHORT TERM...RAY/AR                                                             
LONG TERM...WJM                                                                 
AVIATION...ABE                                                                  
</pre> ky                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME                                             
502 AM EDT SUN MAY 4 2008                                                       
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED NORTHEAST OF THE STATE WILL CONTINUE TO                   
WEAKEN AND MOVE TO THE EAST. LOW PRESSURE APPROACHING FROM THE                  
WEST WILL BRING RAIN TO THE STATE TODAY AND TONIGHT. ANY                        
LINGERING SHOWERS WILL THEN MOVE TO THE EAST EARLY MONDAY...WHILE               
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TOWARD THE REGION.                                         
&&                                                                              
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...                                                 
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MARITIMES IS CURRENTLY WEAKENING AND                     
MOVING TO THE EAST. AT THE SAME TIME LOW PRESSURE IS APPROACHING                
FROM THE WEST ALONG WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROF. INITIALLY SOME OF                 
THE PRECIPITATION IS DRYING UP AS IT MOVES INTO THE RIDGE BUT                   
EXPECT LOW LEVELS TO BECOME MORE SATURATED WITH TIME.                           
SKY/POP...QPF GRIDS FROM PREVIOUS SHIFT FOR TODAY STILL LOOK                    
REASONABLE AND HAVE NOT MADE ANY MAJOR CHANGES. HAVE ADJUSTED SKY               
COVER IN NORTH TO BETTER FIT OBSERVATIONS. FOR TEMPERATURE...DEW                
POINT AND WIND HAVE USED GMOS.                                                  
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...                                   
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST OF NOVA SCOTIA MONDAY...WHILE A                     
FRONTAL BOUNDARY ALSO MOVES EAST OF THE REGION. SHOWERS COULD                   
LINGER EARLY MONDAY...WITH SHOWER CHANCES THEN DIMINISHING FROM                 
WEST TO EAST WHILE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION. HIGH                 
PRESSURE WILL THEN RIDGE ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH                 
TUESDAY NIGHT. A WEAK COLD FRONT CROSSING THE REGION TUESDAY COULD              
BRING A FEW SHOWERS...PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE NORTH/MOUNTAINS.                  
OTHERWISE...GENERALLY EXPECT PARTLY CLOUDY TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES                
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.                    
TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT NEAR NORMAL TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS             
MONDAY/TUESDAY.                                                                 
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...                                      
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE TO THE EAST EARLY WEDNESDAY...WITH LOW                  
PRESSURE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST LATER WEDNESDAY. CLOUD COVER                 
WILL INCREASE WEDNESDAY...WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS DURING THE                   
AFTERNOON. THE LOW SHOULD TRACK ACROSS...OR JUST NORTH OF...THE                 
FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT BRINGING A STEADIER RAIN. THE UPPER               
LOW WILL THEN CROSS THE REGION THURSDAY KEEPING A CHANCE OF                     
SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION. UPPER LEVEL TROFFING THEN PERSISTS                   
FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WHICH COULD HELP KEEP UNSETTLED CONDITIONS                 
ACROSS THE REGION WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS...PARTICULARLY ACROSS                
THE NORTH/MOUNTAINS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL              
LEVELS WEDNESDAY...WITH NEAR NORMAL LEVEL TEMPERATURES THURSDAY                 
THROUGH SATURDAY.                                                               
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...                                      
NEAR TERM: CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO LOWER TO IFR LEVELS ACROSS THE            
ENTIRE REGION TODAY...THEN PERSIST EARLY TONIGHT...WHILE LOW                    
PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE STATE AND A SOUTHEAST FLOW BRINGS MOIST               
AIR INTO THE REGION. CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO MVFR LEVELS                   
LATER TONIGHT.                                                                  
SHORT TERM: MVFR CONDITIONS AND SHOWERS COULD OCCUR AT TIMES EARLY              
MONDAY. OTHERWISE...GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED LATER                 
MONDAY THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY. CEILINGS/VISIBILITIES WILL THEN                 
BEGIN TO LOWER WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WITH DEVELOPING RAIN AND                     
SHOWERS...WITH REDUCED CEILINGS/VISIBILITIES PERSISTING INTO                    
THURSDAY PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE NORTH AND MOUNTAINS.                           
&&                                                                              
.MARINE...                                                                      
NEAR TERM: HAVE INITIALIZED WIND GRIDS WITH RUC13 OUT TO 12 HOURS               
THEN TRANSITION TO 50/50 BLEND OF THE NAM12 AND THE GFS40. ALSO                 
HAVE LOWERED ALL MODEL WINDS FEW KNOTS SINCE A HIGH BIAS IS                     
EXPECTED IN THE SOUTHEAST FLOW. FOR WAVES: SYSTEM TO THE SOUTHEAST              
OF NEW ENGLAND IS PRODUCING SOUTHEAST SWELL. BASED ON MODEL GRAPHICS            
EXPECT MOST OF THIS TO BE CONFINED TO MARINE ZONE ANZ051 ONLY AND               
WILL ISSUE AN SCA FOR SEAS FOR THIS AREA. MAXIMUM SWELL EXPECTED                
TO STAY SOUTH OF ANZ050 AND WILL NOT GET INTO INTRA-COASTAL ZONE.               
ALSO SEEMS TO BE 1 FOOT LOW BIAS IN WNA WAVE GUIDANCE SO HAVE                   
ADJUSTED ACCORDINGLY.                                                           
SHORT TERM: SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL SEAS ARE POSSIBLE MONDAY.                
WINDS/SEAS ARE THEN EXPECTED TO BE BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY                   
LEVELS MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY               
LEVEL SEAS ARE THEN EXPECTED LATER WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.                  
VISIBILITIES COULD BE REDUCED IN SHOWERS MONDAY MORNING.                        
VISIBILITIES WILL THEN BE REDUCED IN RAIN AND SHOWERS WEDNESDAY                 
AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY.                                                     
&&                                                                              
.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
ME...NONE.                                                                      
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 8 AM THIS MORNING         
     TO 6 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ051.                                             
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
NEAR TERM...MIGNONE                                                             
SHORT TERM...NORCROSS                                                           
LONG TERM...NORCROSS                                                            
AVIATION...MIGNONE                                                              
MARINE...MIGNONE/NORCROSS                                                       
</pre> me                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV                                          
345 AM EDT SUN MAY 4 2008                                                       
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL THROUGH TUESDAY. THE WEATHER                   
PATTERN TURNS UNSETTLED FOR THE WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY TIME                   
PERIOD...AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY MEANDERS IN OUR VICINITY.                        
&&                                                                              
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...                                                  
THE COLD FRONT CLEARED THE AREA OVERNIGHT. BACK EDGE OF THE POST                
FRONTAL COLD AIR ADVECTION STRATUS DECK AT 4 AM STRETCHES FROM OUR              
NORTHEAST KENTUCKY ZONES...THROUGH CENTRAL OHIO. THIS DECK                      
CORRESPONDS WELL TO THE 900MB RELATIVE HUMIDITY PATTERN OF THE RUC13            
MODEL...AND I USED THE FORECAST OF THIS PARAMETER TO DEPICT THE                 
QUICK WEST-TO-EAST BREAK UP OF CLOUDS THROUGH MIDDAY.                           
DECENT MIXING WINDS LASTED THROUGH MOST OF THE NIGHT...BUT HIGH                 
PRESSURE IS CHARGING QUICKLY IN FROM WESTERN KENTUCKY /AS OF 4                  
AM...LEXINGTON WAS ALREADY CALM/. I PUT A LITTLE EXTRA ON THE WINDS             
FOR THIS MORNING...BEFORE LETTING THEM DIMINISH THIS AFTERNOON. WITH            
WELL MIXED ATMOSPHERE...AND COLD AIR ADVECTION BRINGING IN 850MB                
TEMPS OF ONLY A COUPLE OR SO DEGREES ABOVE ZERO CELSIUS...ABILITY               
FOR DIURNAL WARMING SHOULD BE QUITE A BIT MUTED. I THUS LEANED                  
STRONGLY TOWARDS THE COOLER MET GUIDANCE VERSUS THE MAV...ESPECIALLY            
IN THE EASTERN ZONES WHERE THE HIGHER MIXING WINDS /AND CLOUDS/ WILL            
LAST THE LONGEST.                                                               
SURFACE HIGH PASSES DIRECTLY OVERHEAD TONIGHT...COMPLETE WITH STRONG            
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION AND VERY DRY MID LEVELS. THIS IS PERFECT FOR               
RADIATIONAL COOLING TO LEAD TO COOLER-THAN-GUIDANCE LOWS...AND SO MY            
FORECAST MINIMUM TEMPERATURES ARE GENERALLY EITHER AT OR A COUPLE               
DEGREES LOWER THAN COLDEST AVAILABLE GUIDANCE. WHILE FREEZING                   
TEMPERATURES ARE NOT FORECAST...A TOUCH OF FROST IS NOT OUT OF THE              
QUESTION FOR THE USUAL SHELTERED COLD SPOTS IN OUR SOUTHEAST OH AND             
NORTHERN WV ZONES.                                                              
HIGH PRESSURE AND FULL SUN WITH LIGHT WINDS MONDAY...AND THIS TIME              
PREFERRED THE WARMER MAV GUIDANCE FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES.                        
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...                             
A QUIET PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES. ONLY FEATURE WILL BE A               
DISSIPATING COOL FRONT DROPPING SOUTHEAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES                  
TUESDAY...BUT WILL NOT MAKE IT INTO OUR AREA. THUS...ABOVE NORMAL               
TEMPERATURES AND DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED.                                       
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...                                      
A 500HPA TROUGH WILL KICK OUT OF THE SOUTH PLAINS REGION MID WEEK               
AND BRING A WARM FRONT TOWARDS THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY...WHILE                    
SIMULTANEOUSLY...A COLD FRONT RIPS THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES.                     
SOUTHWARD EXTENT OF THIS BOUNDARY WILL BE THE QUESTION INTO MID WEEK            
AS IT LOOKS TO STALL JUST NORTH OF THE CWA. WILL SEE AN INFLUX OF               
MOISTURE...BRINGING CLOUD COVER...AND ULTIMATELY...AN INCREASE IN               
RAIN CHANCES. LOOKS LIKE AN EERILY FAMILIAR SCENARIO WHERE RAIN SETS            
UP ALONG THE SOUTHEAST OHIO COUNTIES AS THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY TRACKS            
ALONG ITSELF WHILE THE SURFACE LOW TO THE NORTHEAST DEPARTS INTO                
SOUTHERN QUEBEC AND THE SECONDARY SURFACE LOW APPROACHES THE                    
CONFLUENCE OF THE OHIO AND MISSISSIPPI RIVERS. THIS WILL TRANSLATE              
INTO AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF GRAY SKIES AND DAMP CONDITIONS FOR MOST              
OF THE CWA...AND WILL EXPECT THE PARENT 500HPA TROUGH TO MOVE INTO              
THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND SURFACE HIGH                 
PRESSURE MAY MAKE ITS WAY IN JUST IN TIME FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND              
AND DRY THINGS OUT.                                                             
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...                                      
A COLD FRONT CLEARED THE AREA JUST PRIOR TO 06Z...AND HIGH PRESSURE             
IS QUICKLY BUILDING IN. COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL YIELD A POST FRONTAL            
STRATUS DECK THAT COULD DIP INTO MVFR CATEGORY FOR THE MOUNTAIN                 
TERMINALS FOR A FEW HOURS THIS MORNING...ESPECIALLY KBKW. OTHER THAN            
THAT EXCEPTION...VFR EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD FOR ALL                    
TERMINALS.                                                                      
AVIATION OUTLOOK /AFTER 06Z MONDAY/...STRONG SURFACE HIGH PASSING               
DIRECTLY OVERHEAD...COULD LEAD TO FOG WITH A FEW HOURS OF IFR VIS AT            
KEKN BETWEEN 06Z-12Z MONDAY AT KEKN AND PERHAPS MVFR IN OTHER VALLEY            
TERMINALS. BEYOND THAT...NO SIG WX ANTICIPATED UNTIL THE NEXT FRONT             
COMES DURING THE WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY TIME PERIOD.                                
&&                                                                              
.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
WV...NONE.                                                                      
OH...NONE.                                                                      
KY...NONE.                                                                      
VA...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SYNOPSIS...MDP/JMV                                                              
NEAR TERM...MDP                                                                 
SHORT TERM...JMV                                                                
LONG TERM...JMV                                                                 
AVIATION...MDP                                                                  
</pre> oh                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV                                          
127 AM EDT SUN MAY 4 2008                                                       
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL SUNDAY TO WEDNESDAY. UNSETTLED                 
WEATHER AND THE NEXT CHANCES FOR RAIN COMMENCE FOR THE END OF THE               
WEEK.                                                                           
&&                                                                              
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM THIS MORNING/...                                         
UPDATED FORECAST AROUND MIDNIGHT TO CLEAR ALL POPS EXCEPT EXTREME               
EASTERN ZONES /ONLY LASTING ANOTHER HOUR OR SO THERE/. SKY FORECAST             
UPDATED USING 900MB RH LEVELS FROM THE RUC13 MODEL.                             
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM /7 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...                              
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN WEAK NORTHWESTERLY FLOW TRIES TO HANG ON AS               
LONG AS POSSIBLE INTO THE SHORT TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST. AT                
THIS POINT...SUSPECT IT WILL NOT DO MUCH IN THE WAY OF CLOUD COVER              
SUNDAY NIGHT...AND SHOULD SEE GENERALLY CLEAR CONDITIONS BY                     
MORNING...BUT ENOUGH MOISTURE SHOULD HANG AROUND FOR THE HEATING                
PERIOD OF MONDAY AND GIVE SOME FLAT LOW TOPPED FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS.            
500HPA TROUGH FINALLY SPINS AWAY INTO EASTERN CANADA...AND ZONAL                
FLOW RETURNS AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE NUDGES ITS WAY IN. IN                     
ADDITION...WILL BE WATCHING A SHORT WAVE TROUGH DEVELOP IN THE ZONAL            
FLOW AND PASS THROUGH THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS INTO THE PIEDMONT                
AREA MONDAY...AND WILL BE A FAST MOVER. SHOULD NOT SEE ANY PRECIP               
WITH THIS...BUT COULD PLAY HAVOC WITH THE SKY IN ADDITION TO THE                
AFOREMENTIONED FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS MONDAY AFTERNOON. ALL IN                    
ALL...STILL SHOULD SEE A MIX OF THE SUN AND CLOUDS MONDAY GIVEN                 
INFLUENCES OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE. A SLOW RECOVERY IN THE                     
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY. THE CENTRAL AREA OF HIGH            
PRESSURE WILL TAKE ITS TIME MOVING EASTWARD...BRINGING THE RETURN               
FLOW ACCOMPANIED BY THE INFLUENCES OF THE NEXT SYSTEM OFF TO THE                
WEST.                                                                           
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...                                  
A 500HPA TROUGH WILL KICK OUT OF THE SOUTH PLAINS REGION MID WEEK               
AND BRING A WARM FRONT TOWARDS THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY...WHILE                    
SIMULTANEOUSLY...A COLD FRONT RIPS THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES.                     
SOUTHWARD EXTENT OF THIS BOUNDARY WILL BE THE QUESTION INTO MID WEEK            
AS IT LOOKS TO STALL JUST NORTH OF THE CWA. WILL SEE AN INFLUX OF               
MOISTURE...BRINGING CLOUD COVER...AND ULTIMATELY...AN INCREASE IN               
RAIN CHANCES. LOOKS LIKE AN EERILY FAMILIAR SCENARIO WHERE RAIN SETS            
UP ALONG THE SOUTHEAST OHIO COUNTIES AS THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY TRACKS            
ALONG ITSELF WHILE THE SURFACE LOW TO THE NORTHEAST DEPARTS INTO                
SOUTHERN QUEBEC AND THE SECONDARY SURFACE LOW APPROACHES THE                    
CONFLUENCE OF THE OHIO AND MISSISSIPPI RIVERS. THIS WILL TRANSLATE              
INTO AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF GRAY SKIES AND DAMP CONDITIONS FOR MOST              
OF THE CWA...AND WILL EXPECT THE PARENT 500HPA TROUGH TO MOVE INTO              
THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND SURFACE HIGH                 
PRESSURE MAY MAKE ITS WAY IN JUST IN TIME FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND              
AND DRY THINGS OUT.                                                             
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...                                      
A COLD FRONT CLEARED THE AREA JUST PRIOR TO 06Z...AND HIGH PRESSURE             
IS QUICKLY BUILDING IN. COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL YIELD A POST FRONTAL            
STRATUS DECK THAT COULD DIP INTO MVFR CATEGORY FOR THE MOUNTAIN                 
TERMINALS FOR A FEW HOURS THIS MORNING...ESPECIALLY KBKW. OTHER THAN            
THAT EXCEPTION...VFR EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD FOR ALL                    
TERMINALS.                                                                      
AVIATION OUTLOOK /AFTER 06Z MONDAY/...STRONG SURFACE HIGH PASSING               
DIRECTLY OVERHEAD...COULD LEAD TO FOG WITH A FEW HOURS OF IFR VIS AT            
KEKN BETWEEN 06Z-12Z MONDAY AT KEKN AND PERHAPS MVFR IN OTHER VALLEY            
TERMINALS. BEYOND THAT...NO SIG WX ANTICIPATED UNTIL THE NEXT FRONT             
COMES DURING THE WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY TIME PERIOD.                                
&&                                                                              
.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
WV...NONE.                                                                      
OH...NONE.                                                                      
KY...NONE.                                                                      
VA...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SYNOPSIS...26/ARJ                                                               
NEAR TERM...MDP                                                                 
SHORT TERM...26                                                                 
LONG TERM...26                                                                  
AVIATION...MDP                                                                  
</pre> oh                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SACRAMENTO CA                                          
915 AM PDT SUN MAY 4 2008                                                       
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
TWO LOW PRESSURE AREA ARE EVIDENT THIS MORNING IN THE WATER VAPOR               
IMAGE. ONE OFF THE THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST AND ANOTHER ONE                
MOVING INTO NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA THIS MORNING. THIS SECOND LOW WILL             
CONTINUE TO DROP SOUTHWARD DURING THE DAY. MODELS ARE INDICATING                
INCREASED INSTABILITY OVER THE MOUNTAINS. NAM AND RUC MODEL                     
INDICATE THE BEST CHANCES ALONG THE CREST FROM SOUTH OF PLUMAS                  
COUNTY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH THE GFS INDICATING CHANCES             
EXTENDING UP INTO SHASTA COUNTY.                                                
HAVE INCREASED PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR TODAY AS A RESULT. HAVE                
ALSO INCLUDED SOME SLIGHT CHANCES FOR LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND                   
EARLY EVENING FOR THE MOTHERLODE. EASTERLY FLOW OVER THE SIERRA                 
NEVADA THIS AFTERNOON LOOKS STRONG ENOUGH TO CARRY THE ACTIVITY                 
SOUTHWARD INTO THE FOOTHILLS                                                    
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS LOOK LIKE THEY SHOULD                  
CONTAIN A FAIR AMOUNT OF PRECIPITATION WITH THEM...BUT AS YOU MOVE              
AWAY FROM THE CREST THE AMOUNT OF PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE             
THUNDERSTORMS LOOK LIMITED. THE ACTIVITY WILL DIE DOWN THIS EVENING             
AS THE SUN GOES DOWN AND THE ATMOSPHERE STABILIZES.                             
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
PREDOMINATELY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS INTERIOR NORTHERN              
CALIFORNIA THROUGH TOMORROW EXCEPT CUMULUS BUILDING OVER THE HIGHER             
TERRAIN THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING (UNTIL 03Z) POSSIBLY BRINGING                
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH ISOLD MVFR CONDITIONS. THE              
WAVE MOVING THROUGH TODAY WILL COMBINE WITH THE LOW TO THE SOUTH AND            
REMAIN OFF THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST TOMORROW WHILE A WEAK RIDGE            
BUILDS IN OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. THE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE THE VFR             
CONDITIONS WITH SOME AFTERNOON AND EVENING CUMULUS PROBABLY                     
REDEVELOPING AGAIN TOMORROW AFTERNOON...MAINLY OVER THE SIERRA.                 
&&                                                                              
.STO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                        
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</pre> ca                                                                       

EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL                                           
951 AM EDT SUN MAY 4 2008                                                       
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
THIS AFTERNOON...HAVE BEEN AWAITING THE LATEST SOUNDING AT XMR WHICH            
NOW SHOWS SOME ADT`L MOISTENING OF THE ATMOSPHERE SINCE SATURDAY (UP            
TO 1.45 INCHES OF PWAT). TEMPS HAVE ALSO COOLED BY AROUND 4C @ H7               
DURING THE PAST 20 HOURS. SW-W WIND PROFILE AT STEERING LEVEL FAVORS            
THE CENTRAL TO EASTERN SIDE OF PENINSULA FOR DEVELOPMENT OF                     
DIURNALLY BASED SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A STORM OR TWO BY LATE                      
AFTERNOON. THE LOCALLY GENERATED 8KM WRF RUN FROM 09Z IS INDICATING             
A LARGE SCALE BOUNDARY MERGER OVER THE INTERIOR LATE THIS AFTERNOON             
AND THIS IS SUPPORTED AS WELL BY THE 12Z 13KM RUC. A RATHER LIGHT               
ENVIRONMENTAL SFC WIND THIS MORNING WL LEAD TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF               
LOCALIZED BOUNDARIES AND WOULD EXPECT DEVELOPMENT OF SOME                       
PRECIPITATION DURING THE HEAT OF THE AFTERNOON...ESP AFTER THE                  
LARGER SCALE BREEZE MERGER AFTER 20Z AS THE EAST COAST BREEZE                   
INTERACTS OVER THE INTERIOR. WV IMAGERY INDICATED A WEAK IMPULSE                
ALOFT WHICH WL ADD TO CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL THIS AFTERNOON. WL UPDATE            
FCST TO REFINE THUNDER POTENTIAL AS WELL AS A FEW OTHER WORDING                 
ADJUSTMENTS.                                                                    
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
PRIMARILY VFR THROUGH 19Z WITH ISOLD THUNDER PSBL LATE AFTERNOON.               
LOCALIZED MVFR/IFR PSBL AFT 20Z NEAR SHOWERS AND STORMS WITH                    
COVERAGE AROUND 20 PERCENT.                                                     
&&                                                                              
.MARINE...NO SIG CHANGES PLANNED. PRIMARILY WIND WAVE WITH WINDS AND            
SEAS LOCALLY HIGHER LATE THIS AFTERNOON NEAR A FEW SHOWERS OR                   
STORMS.                                                                         
&&                                                                              
.FIRE WEATHER...                                                                
MIN RH VALUES LOOK TO FALL INTO THE LOW TO MID 30S OVER THE PORTIONS            
OF THE INTERIOR ON MONDAY. WE WILL EVALUATE A POSSIBLE HEADLINE FOR             
MONDAY BY THE AFTERNOON ISSUANCE.                                               
&&                                                                              
.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
FL...NONE.                                                                      
AM...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
JP/DWS                                                                          
</pre> fl                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH                                           
1221 PM EDT SUN MAY 4 2008                                                      
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA                 
TODAY AND THEN MOVE EAST ACROSS THE REGION ON MONDAY. A WARM                    
FRONT WILL LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT. A COLD                 
FRONT WILL THEN SWEEP EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA ON WEDNESDAY.               
&&                                                                              
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...                                         
QUICK UPDATE. MINOR ADJUSTMENTS FOR WINDS. ALSO CHANGED SKY                     
CONDITION FROM PC TO MOSTLY SUNNY ACROSS THE WEST HALF OF THE                   
AREA. BOTH THE RUC AND THE NAM SHOW 850MB LEVELS MOISTENING THIS                
AFTERNOON IN THE WEST HOWEVER BUFKIT FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW THAT               
LEVELS ABOVE AND BELOW ARE VERY DRY. WHILE WE COULD GET CUMULUS                 
QUICKLY DEVELOPING IN THE AFTERNOON BELIEVE WITHIN AN HOUR OR TWO               
THAT SIGNIFICANT DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT WL KEEP CLOUDS SCATTERED.                  
GIVEN THIS WILL HIGHLIGHT THE SUN ASPECT VS THE CLOUDS. FURTHER                 
EAST WITH LAKE 850MB TEMPS CLOSER TO 10 OR 11C WILL KEEP PC. NO                 
OTHER CHANGES.                                                                  
PREVIOUS...CLOUDS ARE QUICKLY MOVING EAST AND OUT OF THE AREA                   
SETTING UP FOR A DAY OF LOTS OF SUNSHINE TODAY. ONLY FLY IN THE                 
OINTMENT IS THE CUMULUS RULE SHOWS SCATTERED TO BROKEN CLOUDS OVER              
THE AREA TODAY THANKS TO RESIDUAL MOISTURE IN THE SOIL LEFTOVER                 
FROM ALL THE PREVIOUS RAIN. LATEST RADAR SHOWS A FEW SPRINKLES                  
HEADING EAST FROM THE CANADIAN SHORE TOWARD ERIE PENNSYLVANIA.                  
THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD BE INTO AND THROUGH ERIE BY 7 AM IN THE                    
MORNING SO WILL JUST HANDLE IT WITH NOWCASTS.                                   
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO BE ON THE COOL SIDE COMPARED TO LAST                   
COUPLE DAYS AS COLD AIR ADVECTION TAKES PLACE. EARLY MAY SUN WILL               
HELP BRING TEMPERATURES UP TO AROUND 60 IN MOST AREAS. AREAS CLOSE              
TO THE COLD LAKE ERIE SHORE LINE WILL STRUGGLE TO GET OUT OF THE                
50S TODAY.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...                      
FAIR WEATHER CONTINUES TONIGHT AND AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES IN                  
OVER THE AREA AND WINDS WILL DIMINISH. THIS WILL HELP TEMPERATURES              
DROP OVER THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA SETTING UP FOR              
SOME POSSIBLE PATCHY FROST AWAY FROM THE LAKE. WESTERN AREAS WILL               
SEE SOME WEAK WARM AIR ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE TRUE WARM FRONT AND               
THIS SHOULD HELP KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM BOTTOMING OUT NEAR                      
FREEZING.                                                                       
SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALOFT MOVES QUICKLY THROUGH THE AREA WITH VERY                 
LIMITED MOISTURE ON TUESDAY AND THIS FEATURE COULD KICK OFF A FEW               
SPRINKLES OR VERY LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS DURING THE DAY. WARM FRONT                 
MOVES INTO THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT AND MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH                
THE FRONT WILL BE LIMITED ONCE AGAIN. HOWEVER...INSTABILITY                     
INCREASES ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND IN THE WARM AIR ADVECTION              
THAT IT WARRANTS AT LEAST A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS                 
TUESDAY NIGHT.                                                                  
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA WEDNESDAY AND WILL CONTINUE THE               
THREAT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. POTENTIAL...WITH                           
INSTABILITY...THAT SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS COULD REACH SEVERE                 
LIMITS DEPENDING ON TIMING OF THE FRONT.                                        
WEDNESDAY NIGHT COLD AIR ADVECTION TAKES PLACE WITH RESIDUAL                    
SCATTERED SHOWERS IN THE STABLE AIR NORTH OF THE WAVE OF LOW                    
PRESSURE PROGGED TO MOVE EAST ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. PROBLEM WITH              
THE FORECAST GOING INTO THE EXTENDED PERIODS IS THE COLD FRONT                  
BECOMES NEARLY STATIONARY JUST SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA.                      
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...                                       
BOUNDARY OVER EXTREME SOUTHERN OHIO AND NORTHERN KENTUCKY THURSDAY              
WITH LOW MOVING ALONG IT. WITH SOME RIDGING EXTREME NORTH ESPECIALLY            
BY THE GFS THE QUESTION IS HOW FAR NORTH WILL THE PRECIPITATION                 
BE...WITH SOME QUESTIONS KEPT THE THREAT OVER THE ENTIRE AREA                   
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. THE 00Z ECMWF AGREES WITH THE GFS ON THIS.              
FOR FRIDAY THE GFS REALLY DRIES THINGS OUT WHILE THE ECMWF DOESN`T              
ON THIS RUN...IT IS SLOWER IN BUILDING IN THE HIGH...NOT SURE WHY               
THIS IS THE CASE. AT THE MOMENT WILL STILL GO WITH THE GFS IN                   
BUILDING THE HIGH IN. THE ECMWF ON SATURDAY STILL HAS SOME SHOWERS              
AROUND WHILE THE GFS IS DRY WITH THE HIGH IN PLACE. AGAIN GOING DRY.            
DID A MIX OF MEX...GRIDDED MOS AND LOCAL SCHEME FOR TEMPERATURES.               
QUESTION WITH THE SKY COVER WHAT THE TEMPERATURES WILL DO.                      
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...                                      
HIGH PRESSURE SLIDING ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AND MOVING JUST OFF TO              
THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST ON MONDAY WILL KEEP VFR WEATHER GOING                   
THROUGH THE TAF FORECAST PERIOD...18Z MONDAY. ONLY EXPECTING SCT                
VFR CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON.                                                      
OUTLOOK...THE MAIN THREAT FOR SOME NON VFR CONDITIONS IN                        
PRECIPITATION WILL BE TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. A SHORT WAVE WILL               
MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY WITH SOME SPOTTY SHOWERS. THE                    
BETTER CHANCE FOR SOME NON VFR CONDITIONS IN PRECIPITATION WILL BE              
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA.              
HOW FAR NORTH THE PRECIPITATION WILL BE THURSDAY IS A TOUGH CALL                
WITH THE FRONT OVER SOUTHERN OHIO AND LOW PRESSURE MOVING EAST                  
ALONG THE FRONT FROM MISSOURI.                                                  
&&                                                                              
.MARINE...                                                                      
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD RAPIDLY OVER THE LAKE TODAY. THE WINDS WILL            
DECREASE AND SWITCH TO THE NORTHWEST. THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY                  
THROUGH 10 AM LOOKS GOOD. UNSETTLED WEATHER ACROSS THE AREA WITH A              
FRONT MOVING THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND THEN BECOMING STATIONARY ACROSS              
SOUTHERN OHIO THURSDAY WITH A LOW MOVING ALONG THE FRONT. HIGH                  
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FRIDAY. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED             
SOME TIME IN THE WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY PERIOD.                             
&&                                                                              
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
OH...NONE.                                                                      
PA...NONE.                                                                      
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR                 
     LEZ147>149.                                                                
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SYNOPSIS...LOMBARDY                                                             
NEAR TERM...TK/LOMBARDY                                                         
SHORT TERM...LOMBARDY                                                           
LONG TERM...KIELTYKA                                                            
AVIATION...RANDEL                                                               
MARINE...KIELTYKA                                                               
</pre> oh                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK                                              
1026 AM CDT SUN MAY 4 2008                                                      
AFTER A QUICK SPIKE IN DEWPOINTS AFTER SUNRISE THIS MORNING...                  
DEWPOINTS HAVE STARTED A DOWNWARD TREND IN MOST AREAS. 12Z RAOBS AND            
CLOSE PROXIMITY OF A LOWER/MID LEVEL ANTICYCLONE SUGGEST A LOWERING             
OF DEWPOINTS OR AT BEST A LEVELING OF DEWPOINTS IS LIKELY FOR THE               
AFTERNOON WHICH IS IN CONTRAST TO OUR GOING FORECAST. HAVE THEREFORE            
USED A BLEND OF THE DRIER RUC AND THE MORE MODEST NAM ALONG WITH                
LAPS TRENDS TO JUSTIFY CHANGES TO THE AFTERNOON DEWPOINT GRIDS.                 
ALONG WITH CHANGES TO THE DEWPOINTS...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT AND MORE            
RAPID DEVELOPMENT OF A DEEPER MIXED PBL HAVE RESULTED IN SLIGHTLY               
STRONGER WINDS ACROSS NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA THAN PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED.              
SO AN INCREASE IN WINDS IS ALSO INTRODUCED INTO THE AFTERNOON GRIDS.            
THE PRIMARY RESULT OF THESE CHANGES IS INCREASES WILDFIRE POTENTIAL             
ACROSS NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA WHERE DORMANT VEGETATION CONTINUES. SPREAD            
INDICES ARE NOW FORECAST TO REACH 60 TO 65 WHICH IS JUST BELOW WHAT             
WOULD NORMALLY BE USED TO SUPPORT A RED FLAG WARNING. HOWEVER...WE              
WILL UPDATE OUR FIRE WEATHER FORECASTS TO EXPLAIN THE INCREASE IN THE           
WILDFIRE POTENTIAL.                                                             
BEYOND THIS AFTERNOON...THE PRIMARY EMPHASIS CONTINUES TO BE THE                
SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL FOR MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT AND AGAIN ON              
WEDNESDAY. MONDAY`S OUTLOOK REMAINS HIGHLY CONDITIONAL AS WEAK                  
LIFTING OF MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MAY RESULT IN SCATTERED                      
CONVECTION NEAR A LEE ROCKIES SURFACE LOW IN SOUTHWEST KANSAS AND               
PERHAPS FARTHER SOUTH ALONG THE TROUGH AXIS INTO WESTERN TEXAS. HIGH            
CLOUD BASES SUPPORT A GOOD PROBABILITY OF SIGNIFICANT COLD POOL                 
DEVELOPMENT POTENTIAL WITH ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP WITH SHEAR                   
PROFILES AND MID/UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW SUPPORTIVE OF UPSCALE            
GROWTH INTO CLUSTERS MONDAY EVENING AND MONDAY NIGHT. AT THIS                   
TIME...THIS SCENARIO APPEARS MOST LIKELY ACROSS KANSAS WITH A CHANCE            
OF SOME INFLUENCE ACROSS NORTHERN OKLAHOMA.                                     
WEDNESDAY`S SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL IS MORE LIKELY AS THE REGION               
RECEIVES STRONG INFLUENCE FROM AN APPROACHING UPPER LOW WITH STORMS             
POSSIBLY INITIATING BY MIDDAY NEAR A SURGING DRYLINE JUST WEST OF               
INTERSTATE 35.                                                                  
JAMES                                                                           
-------------------------                                                       
405 AM CDT SUN MAY 4 2008                                                       
.DISCUSSION...UNSEASONABLY COOL MORNING ACROSS THE FA WITH TEMPS                
IN THE 30S IN NRN OK. TEMPS SHOULD RETURN CLOSER TO SEASONAL NORMS              
TODAY AS SFC RIDGE SLIDES EWD AND SOUTHERLY WINDS RETURN. LOW                   
LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDING INTO THE GULF WILL KEEP INITIAL MOISTURE                  
RETURN MAINLY SOUTH AND WEST OF THE FA THROUGH TODAY BUT BETTER                 
MOISTURE SHOULD BEGIN TO SPREAD BACK INTO THE AREA TONIGHT AND                  
MONDAY. BEST THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ON MONDAY WILL BE IN WESTERN AND              
SOUTHERN SECS WITH RETREATING FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND INCREASING                   
MOISTURE INTERACTING WITH WEAK IMPULSES MOVE THROUGH. BEST                      
INSTABILITY BY MONDAY AFTN EXPECTED FROM TX PANHANDLE INTO NW OK AS             
TEMPS HEAT WELL INTO THE 80S. STRONG/SEVERE STORMS WHICH INITIATE ON            
THE DRYLINE WEST OF THE AREA COULD MOVE INTO WESTERN PARTS OF OK                
DURING THE EVENING/OVERNIGHT. TUESDAY FORECAST IS A BIT TRICKY WITH             
SW UPPER SYSTEM STILL WELL TO THE WEST. MOIST AIRMASS WILL STILL BE             
IN PLACE BUT CAP WILL BE INCREASING. WILL GO ALONG WITH GFS TREND OF            
PUSHING MOST OF THE PRECIP OFF TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE AREA. MODELS             
HAVE BEEN FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH EJECTING UPPER LOW FROM SRN ROCKIES            
INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS ON WEDNESDAY. THREAT AS THIS OCCURS SURFACE            
LOW EXPECTED TO MOVE FROM TX PANHANDLE INTO WRN/CNTRL OK BY                     
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WITH DRYLINE EXTENDING SOUTHWARD INTO NORTH                 
TEXAS AND COLD FRONT ADVANCING INTO NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA. MOISTURE                
WILL REMAIN IN PLACE AHEAD OF THESE FEATURES AND WITH STRENGTHENING             
WIND FIELDS THREAT OF STRONG/SEVERE STORMS WILL INCREASE. STORMS                
WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST OF THE AREA BY THURSDAY MORNING WITH A                
COUPLE OF DRY DAYS EXPECTED AS FRONT PUSHES SOUTH THROUGH TEXAS                 
UPPER RIDGE REBUILDS OVER THE AREA. WILL RETURN POPS TO THE FORECAST            
FOR LATE IN THE PD WITH SWLY UPPER FLOW DEVELOPING AND FRONTAL                  
BOUNDARY DRIFTING BACK NWD.                                                     
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  74  52  76  64 /   0   0  30  50                              
HOBART OK         78  54  75  63 /   0  10  30  40                              
WICHITA FALLS TXV 78  57  75  65 /   0  10  50  60                              
GAGE OK           81  53  82  63 /   0  10  20  20                              
PONCA CITY OK     72  48  76  65 /   0   0  10  30                              
DURANT OK         77  56  74  64 /   0   0  40  60                              
&&                                                                              
.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
OK...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR OKZ007-008-013-             
     020.                                                                       
TX...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
30/02                                                                           
</pre> ok                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD                                            
1033 AM CDT SUN MAY 4 2008                                                      
.UPDATE...                                                                      
MADE A FEW CHANGES TO THE GRIDS THIS MORNING...MOSTLY TO DECREASE               
WINDS. THE STRONGER WINDS ARE OVER NORTHWESTERN NORTH                           
DAKOTA...WHICH ARE ON THE BACKSIDE OF A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE. THE LATEST        
RUC MODEL RUN SHOWS THIS LOW SLOWLY MOVING ESE TODAY...WITH WINDS               
OUT OF A MORE WESTERLY DIRECTION. HAVE ALSO INCREASE TEMPS A                    
DEGREE IN THE NE CWA. REST OF THE FORECAST LOOKS GOOD.                          
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION...                                                             
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY                                             
FORECAST CHALLENGES INCLUDE TEMPERATURES AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES              
LATE MONDAY NIGHT AND DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY.                                
CURRENTLY...HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE RESIDES ACROSS THE                     
FORECAST AREA. A SUBTLE LITTLE RATHER SLOW-MOVING COLD FRONTAL                  
BOUNDARY IS TRYING TO BACK DOOR ITS WAY INTO THE FAR NORTHEASTERN               
FORECAST ZONES THIS MORNING.                                                    
WEAK UPPER LEVEL S/WS WILL CONTINUE TO SHEAR APART AS THEY WORK                 
THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS IN NW FLOW ALOFT TODAY AND MONDAY.                  
THIS SUBTLE LITTLE BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN NEARLY                        
STATIONARY TODAY BEFORE SAGGING SOUTHWARD INTO THE NORTHEASTERN                 
HALF OF THE CWA TONIGHT. WITH BOUNDARY ORIENTED PARALLEL TO THE                 
UPPER FLOW PATTERN...NOT EXPECTING DRAMATIC FLUCTUATIONS IN                     
FRONTAL POSITION OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. BY MONDAY                        
AFTERNOON...THE BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN RETREATING NORTHWARD              
IN RESPONSE TO THE SOMEWHAT STRONGER UPPER WAVE STILL EXPECTED TO               
WORK THROUGH THE DAKOTAS LATE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. SO...REALLY             
NO CHANGES MADE TO GOING WX/POP FORECAST FOR MONDAY NIGHT AND                   
TUESDAY. ALTHOUGH...LATEST RUNS OF THE EC AND GFS OPERATIONAL MODELS            
SUGGEST THAT THE MAJORITY OF PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL WILL SET UP                
EITHER NORTH OR EAST OF THIS AREA BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON.                         
NEVERTHELESS...CONTINUED WITH THE SMALLISH CHANCES OF SHOWERS OR                
POSSIBLY EVEN A THUNDERSTORM IN ELEVATED INSTABILITY LAYER.                     
TEMPERATURES WILL BE TRICKY TO NAIL DOWN AND HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON                
WHERE THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS LOCATED EACH OF THE NEXT COUPLE OF               
DAYS COME PEAK-HEATING TIME. SOUTH AND WEST OF THE                              
BOUNDARY...STILL EXPECTING QUITE A WARMUP /BACK TO AROUND NORMAL                
TO AS MUCH AS 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL/ BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. NORTH               
AND EAST OF THE BOUNDARY IN LIGHT EAST OR NORTHEAST                             
WINDS...TEMPERATURES MAY STRUGGLE TO RETURN TO CLIMO NORMALS                    
TODAY AND MONDAY. LASTLY...EC AND GFS MODEL OUTPUT SEEMS TO                     
SUGGEST THAT THE COLD PUSH BEHIND THE TUESDAY SYSTEM MAY HOLD OFF               
LONG ENOUGH ON TUESDAY TO ALLOW FOR SOME DECENT HEATING TO                      
OCCUR...BEFORE CAA TAKES OVER TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.                    
THEREFORE...DID NUDGE MAX T VALUES UP A FEW DEGREES ACROSS MUCH OF              
THE CWA ON TUESDAY.                                                             
.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY                                     
MODELS AND GFS ENSEMBLES SHOW DECENT AGREEMENT AND CONSISTENCY                  
WITH THE LONG TERM AS THE STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW IN THE SOUTHWEST               
US BEGINS THE PERIOD AND TRAVELS TO THE SOUTH OF OUR REGION FOR                 
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT KEEPING OUR AREA DRY. THE                 
MODELS AND ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO SHOW UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING                     
DEVELOPING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST EARLY ON. SHORT WAVES COMING              
OFF OF THIS TROUGH WILL BRING MAINLY SLIGHT CHANCES OF SHRAS/TSRAS              
FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY TO MUCH OF THE CWA. A MORE                   
SIGNIFICANT WAVE WILL BRING A BETTER CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION FOR                
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AS SHOWN MAINLY BY THE GFS. MAY HAVE TO              
INCREASE POPS HERE EVEN MORE IN LATER FORECASTS. OTHERWISE...WITH               
THIS PACIFIC FLOW...TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE NEAR NORMAL FOR THIS                 
TIME OF YEAR WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S AND LOWS IN THE 40S. MADE ONLY               
SMALL ADJUSTMENTS TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.                                     
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
VFR SKIES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH 12Z MONDAY WITH NO VISIBILITY                    
RESTRICTIONS OR SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED.                                   
&&                                                                              
.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
SD...NONE.                                                                      
MN...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
UPDATE...SD                                                                     
SHORT TERM...DORN                                                               
LONG TERM...MOHR                                                                
AVIATION...HINTZ                                                                
WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN                                                            
</pre> sd                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL                                        
146 PM EDT SUN MAY 4 2008                                                       
.SHORT TERM...MSAS ANALYSIS SHOWS A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE                  
OVER THE EASTERN CAROLINAS WITH A NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST ORIENTED               
TROUGH EXTENDING THROUGH THE PANHANDLE OF FLORIDA. NORTHERLY PUSH               
OF DRIER SURFACE AIR STILL RESIDES WELL WEST OF THE AREA OVER THE               
LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WITH MOISTURE POOLING AHEAD OF THIS                    
FEATURE THROUGH THE ALABAMA AND GEORGIA BORDER. HOWEVER...AFTER                 
EXAMINATION OF LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC UPPER LEVEL                   
CHARTS...IT IS APPARENT THAT MOST ALL OF THE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT                
HAS EXITED STAGE RIGHT. THIS IS STILL PRODUCING SOME SHOWER                     
ACTIVITY OVER THE OUTER MOST COASTAL ZONES...BUT EVEN THIS SHOULD               
BE ON THE WANE THROUGH SUNSET.                                                  
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THIS EVENING...WEST COAST SEABREEZE WILL                   
REMAIN DOMINANT IN WESTERLY SYNOPTIC ENVIRONMENT ALLOWING FOR A                 
LATE COLLISION ALONG THE FLORIDA ATLANTIC ZONES. GIVEN DEGREE OF                
DRY AIR ALOFT AN SUBSIDENCE...FEEL DEVELOPMENT WILL BE VERY                     
UNLIKELY AND IF ANYTHING CAN FORM AT ALL...SHOULD BE ISOLATED AND               
IN THE FORM OF SHOWERS.                                                         
THROUGH MON...AREA OF LOW PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE AREA BUT BULK               
OF THE MOISTURE WILL BE ON THE EASTERN SIDE...AWAY FROM THE                     
MAINLAND. WILL THEREFORE CARRY NIL POPS AND WITH A LATE DEVELOPING              
SEABREEZE...TEMPS WILL BE ALLOWED TO REACH THE MID TO UPPER 80S                 
UNDER FULL SUN.                                                                 
LOW PUSHES EAST OF THE ARE BY TUE WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING              
IN WEST OF THE AREA. DRY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND LIMITED SURFACE               
MOISTURE AS WELL WILL KEEP NIL POPS OVER THE AREA. A QUICKER                    
DEVELOPING SEABREEZE IN SYNOPTIC NORTHEAST FLOW WILL RESULT IN                  
COOLER MAX TEMPS ALONG THE COAST.                                               
SOME SLIGHT MODEL DISCREPANCIES CROP UP FOR WED AFTERNOON AS NAM12              
IS MORE AGGRESSIVE IN BRINGING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INTO THE AREA ON              
THE RETURN FLOW SIDE OF ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE. NAM12 IS OFTEN                  
OVERDONE IN THESE LIMITED CONVERGENCE YET LIMITED MOISTURE                      
SITUATIONS AND WILL SIDE WITH THE DRIER GFS FOR THIS CYCLE.                     
.LONG TERM...NEXT SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT LOOKS               
TO REMAIN WELL NORTH OF THE REGION THROUGH WEEKS END WITH VERY                  
LIMITED RAIN CHANCES IN STORE. CURRENT GRID SET HAS A VERY GOOD                 
HANDLE ON THIS SCENARIO AND NO CHANGES ARE PLANNED.                             
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST. THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH                 
BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS BEHIND SLOW MOVING FRONTAL BOUNDARY TONIGHT TO             
PRECLUDE FOG DEVELOPMENT.                                                       
&&                                                                              
.MARINE...NO HEADLINES UNTIL POSSIBLY LATE NEXT WEEK. A WEAK COLD               
FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE               
SETTLING IN EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS HIGH WILL DRIFT EAST LATE NEXT                
WEEK AND COUPLED WITH APPROACH OF NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL INCREASE             
WINDS ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS...WITH POSSIBILITY OF SCEC/SCA                    
HEADLINES.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
.FIRE WEATHER...DRIER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE AREA BEHIND THE FRONT            
WITH BASICALLY A DRY FORECAST THROUGH AT LEAST MID-WEEK. MONDAY...              
HAVE EXPANDED RED FLAG WARNING TO INCLUDE MOST NORTHEAST FLORIDA                
COUNTIES.  TUESDAY...A FIRE WEATHER WATCH CONTINUES FOR LARGE                   
PORTION OF INTERIOR NORTHEAST FLORIDA.                                          
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
AMG  57  85  55  85 /   0   0   0   0                                           
SSI  64  82  63  78 /  10  10   0   0                                           
JAX  62  86  59  82 /  10  10   0   0                                           
SGJ  64  84  63  80 /  10   0   0   0                                           
GNV  59  88  56  87 /   0   0   0   0                                           
OCF  60  87  55  87 /   0   0   0   0                                           
&&                                                                              
.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
FL...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY EVENING            
     FOR ALACHUA-BAKER-BRADFORD-COLUMBIA-GILCHRIST-HAMILTON-                    
     MARION-SUWANNEE-UNION.                                                     
     FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY                  
     EVENING FOR ALACHUA-BAKER-BRADFORD-COLUMBIA-GILCHRIST-                     
     HAMILTON-MARION-SUWANNEE-UNION.                                            
GA...NONE.                                                                      
AM...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
DEESE/ZAPPE/KEEGAN                                                              
</pre> fl                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI                                             
346 PM EDT SUN MAY 4 2008                                                       
.DISCUSSION...LATEST RUC/UPPER AIR/SATELLITE ANALYSIS THIS AFTERNOON            
REVEALS UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED OVER NORTHWEST ONTARIO WITH A                  
SHORTWAVE ROTATING AROUND THIS FEATURE INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES.            
WITH MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AROUND 6.5C/KM...CERTAINLY SOME VIGOROUS             
AC SEEN ON SATELLITE ACROSS NORTHERN WISCONSIN/WESTERN UP. THERE HAS            
BEEN AN ABUNDANCE OF REFLECTIVITIES ON KMQT AND KGRB RADARS THIS                
AFTERNOON ASSOCIATED WITH THIS MID CLOUD. NOT CERTAIN ANY                       
PRECIPITATION IS REACHING THE GROUND...BUT IT CERTAINLY HAS THE                 
APPEARANCE THAT THERE MAY BE SOME LIQUID REACHING THE GROUND.                   
FORECAST CONCERNS FOR THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT REVOLVE AROUND                   
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE SHORTWAVE/COLD FRONT              
TONIGHT...AND DETERMINING THE SOUTHWARD EXTENT OF THE MID LEVEL                 
CLOUDS TONIGHT IMPACTING TEMPERATURES.                                          
TONIGHT...SHORTWAVE WILL CONTINUE ITS TRACK ACROSS THE NORTHERN                 
GREAT LAKES. MOST OF THE MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM IS IN             
THE MID LEVELS AS EVIDENT WITH CLOUD HEIGHTS AROUND 8-10 KFT. WITH              
THIS IN MIND...EXPECTING MAINLY LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS...BORDERING ON               
SPRINKLES FOR THE AREA IMPACTED TONIGHT. THE MAIN SHORTWAVE ENERGY              
WILL SWING THROUGH AREAS NORTH OF M-68 IN NORTHERN LOWER                        
TONIGHT...SO WILL ONLY CARRY POPS IN THE FAR NORTH...TRIMMING POPS              
OUT OF AREAS SOUTH OF M-68. THE RAIN SHOWERS/SPRINKLES WILL ARRIVE              
SHORTLY AFTER 8 PM THIS EVENING...AND SHOULD EXIT THE AREA BY LATE              
TONIGHT. PREVIOUS SHIFTS HAD LIKELY POPS IN THE NORTH AND SEE NO                
REASON TO DOWNGRADE AT THIS POINT. IT WILL LIKELY BE A HIGH POP/LOW             
QPF EVENT THIS EVENING. CERTAINLY CANNOT RULE OUT A STRAY RUMBLE OF             
THUNDER TONIGHT WITH MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AROUND 6.5C/KM...BUT                 
GIVEN THERE HAS BEEN NO LIGHTNING DETECTED UPSTREAM...WE WILL BE                
HARD PRESSED TO SEE ANYTHING TONIGHT EITHER. FURTHER SOUTH...EXPECT             
PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TO REMAIN THROUGH MUCH OF THE                      
NIGHT...PRODUCING ANOTHER CHILLY NIGHT WITH LOWS FALLING INTO THE               
30S. LOWS WILL BE A BIT WARMER IN THE NORTH WITH THE CLOUD COVER                
TONIGHT.                                                                        
KAS                                                                             
LONG TERM...MONDAY...COLD FRONT WILL BE EXITING SOUTHEAST ZONES                 
DURING THE MORNING HOURS AND GET HUNG UP ACROSS SOUTHERN LOWER MI.              
LOW LEVEL COLD ADVECTION INTO NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA            
SETS UP A DECENT THERMAL GRADIENT FROM NORTH TO SOUTH DURING THE                
AFTERNOON...WITH DEEP MIXING EXPECTED ALONG/SOUTH OF M-55 WHICH                 
SHOULD RESULT IN A MORE EXTENSIVE HIGH BASED CU FIELD.  WOULDN`T BE             
SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW SHOWERS TRY TO POP ALONG THE OLD BOUNDARY TO             
THE SOUTH DURING THE AFTERNOON.  OTHERWISE SOME MORNING CLOUDS WILL             
GIVE WAY TO MORE SUN BY AFTERNOON...WITH TEMPERATURES LIKELY                    
STRUGGLING TO BREAK 50 ACROSS EASTERN UPPER...WHILE WARMING INTO THE            
60S CLOSER TO SAGINAW BAY AND POINT SOUTH.  LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION            
AND FRONTOGENETIC FORCING RAMP UP ACROSS NORTHERN WI/SOUTHWEST UPPER            
DURING THE AFTERNOON...BENEATH STEEPER MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES                    
(6.5C/KM 700-500MB LAYER) ALONG WITH INCREASING MOISTURE CONVERGENCE            
ALONG NOSE OF 30KT LOW LEVEL JET.  GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED A BIT                   
FARTHER SOUTH WITH PRECIPITATION GENESIS REGION...AND THUS THE                  
RESULTANT QPF WHICH ADVANCES INTO NORTHERN LOWER OVERNIGHT.  WILL               
BUMP POPS UP A BIT ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER GIVEN THIS TREND.                      
TUESDAY...MAY BE SOME LINGERING PRECIPITATION EARLY TUESDAY...BUT               
FOR THE MOST PART EXPECTING A DRYING TREND THROUGH THE DAY.  SET UP             
FOR TUESDAY NIGHT IS PRETTY SIMILAR TO MONDAY NIGHT AS WARM                     
ADVECTION CONTINUES OVER SURFACE BOUNDARY ACROSS MN/WI...WILL CARRY             
CHANCE POPS MOST AREAS EXCEPT FAR SOUTHEAST FOR NOW AND LET THE                 
DETAILS (LOCATION/TIMING) WORK THEMSELVES OUT.                                  
EXTENDED FORECAST (WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...MIDWEEK PERIOD WILL              
START WITH A CONTINUED CHANCE FOR RAIN WEDNESDAY AS ACTIVITY THAT               
DEVELOPS TUESDAY NIGHT ADVANCES ACROSS THE AREA.  WILL THEN LOOK                
AHEAD TO SHORT WAVE ENERGY CROSSING THE SOUTHERN PLAINS IN THE                  
THURSDAY TIME FRAME.  GUIDANCE HAS BEEN CONSISTENT IN SHOWING SOME              
WEAK SURFACE RIDGING POKING INTO THE STATE FROM THE NORTHWEST ON                
THURSDAY...SO SHOULD BE ABLE TO CONTINUE WITH A DRY FORECAST.                   
SUBSEQUENT TRACK OF THIS WAVE ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY STILL LOOKS TO             
BE FAR ENOUGH SOUTH TO AVOID IMPACTING NORTHERN MI.  IF THIS                    
SCENARIO HOLDS COULD BE LOOKING AT A COUPLE OF CHILLY NIGHTS DURING             
THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK.  WILL SPLIT THE RAIN CHANCES FOR NEXT              
WEEKEND...KEEPING SATURDAY DRY AND CARRYING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS                
SUNDAY.  TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY AVERAGE BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE              
COMING WEEK AS A WHOLE.                                                         
JPB                                                                             
&&                                                                              
.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
MI...NONE.                                                                      
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LMZ341-342-          
     344-345.                                                                   
LH...NONE.                                                                      
LS...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</pre> mi                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE                                        
402 PM CDT SUN MAY 4 2008                                                       
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
WIND SHIFT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVE. IT IS MORE                       
PROGRESSIVE THAN ANY MODEL BUT THE RUC...BUT WILL EVENTUALLY                    
HANG UP IN SE NEB AND THEN REVERSE. LIGHT AND VBL WINDS TONIGHT                 
WILL ALLOW DECENT COOLING.                                                      
WARM ADVECTION RESUMES MONDAY WITH HIGHS APPROACHING 80. MID CLOUDS             
MAY INCREASE ENOUGH TO HOLD TEMPS BACK A FEW DEG. RICH LOW LEVEL                
MOISTURE IN RIO GRANDE VALLEY WILL RETURN THROUGH CENTRAL KS...AND              
MAY BE ENOUGH TO TRIGGER A FEW TSTMS IN SW COUNTIES BY LATE AFTN.               
THERE WILL BE A CHANCE MAINLY IN THE SOUTH MON NGT.  SPC SEES A                 
RISK OF SVR...AND WOULD NOT RULE OUT SOME ELEVATED HAIL PRODUCERS.              
HOWEVER...LOW LVL JET IS WEAK THIS FAR NORTH...AND UPPER DYNAMICS               
ARE VERY LIMITED. WENT SLGT CHC OF TSTMS ALL BUT FAR SOUTH.                     
CONDITIONS FOR THUNDER NOT A LOT BETTER TUE. WEAK UPPER RIDGING CONTINUES.      
WARM MOIST AIR WILL BE PRESENT...BUT BOUNDARIES ARE LACKING.  REDUCED           
DAYTIME POPS SOMEWHAT.                                                          
PRECIP CHC INCREASES TUE NIGHT INTO WED. SOME STORMS DURING THIS                
PD COULD BE STRONG AND/OR PRODUCE HEAVY RAIN ESPECIALLY IN THE                  
SOUTH.  DURING THIS PD AN UPPER LOW...INITIALLY STRONG...KICKS                  
NORTHEAST INTO KS. ACCEPTED HPC DISUCSSION DISCOUNTING NAM                      
STRONGER NRN BRANCH SHORT WAVE AND SOMEWHAT FASTER FRONT. THIS                  
LEAVES A FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO INTERACT WITH MOIST AIR TUE NIGHT                  
IN THE NORTH...AND ALL DAY WED IN THE SOUTH. CUT GRAPHICAL HPC                  
QPF THAT FOCUSES ON WED AFTN IN THE SOUTH DUE TO DRIER FORECASTS                
BY ALL NEIGHBORS. HOWEVER BELIEVE SOUTH HAS HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL                
AS SFC BOUNDARY INTERACTS WITH UPPER SYSTEM AND MENTIONED THIS                  
POSSIBILITY IN THE FCST.                                                        
UPPER SYSTEM SHOULD PULL AWAY FROM THE AREA BY THU...LEAVING US A               
COUPLE OF DRY DAYS WITH MODERATE TEMPS.                                         
MODELS ARE NOT COHERENT ENOUGH TO SAY WHEN THE NEXT SGFNT CHC OF                
PRECIP WILL BE...BUT NEXT WEEKEND APPEARS TO BE BEST ESTIMATE.                  
FOCUSED BEST POPS ON SAT NIGHT...BUT COULD WELL END UP BEING                    
A DIFFERENT PD DUE TO HIGH UNCERTAINTY SO FAR OUT.  WAVES APPEAR                
TO BE WEAKER IN QUASI ZONAL FLOW.  THIS WOULD PREVENT MOISTURE                  
FROM BEING PUSHED AS FAR SOUTH AS IT HAS SO FAR THIS SPRING...                  
BUT ALSO MAKES TIMING MORE DIFFICULT.                                           
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
FOR TAF SITES KOMA...KLNK AND KOFK.                                             
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE            
APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTH AFT 12Z/05.                                          
&&                                                                              
.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
NE...NONE.                                                                      
IA...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
POLLACK/FOBERT                                                                  
</pre> ne                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI                                           
335 PM CDT SUN MAY 4 2008                                                       
.SHORT TERM...THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT                                           
SHORT TERM FORECAST HASN/T BECOME ANY MORE CLEAR SINCE                          
YESTERDAY...IN FACT...IN MANY FACETS...CONFIDENCE HAS DIMINISHED                
WITH REGARDS TO MON-WED RAIN CHANCES THANKS TO SOME TRENDS IN THE               
NEW 04.12Z DATASETS. SPENT BULK OF THE TIME ON THE RAIN CHANCES                 
MON AFTN/EVENING...AND TUES EVENING INTO WEDNESDAY.                             
CURRENTLY...COMPACT PV ANOMALY /PER RUC 1.5 PV SURFACE TO 525MB/                
NEAR LAKE OF THE WOODS /MN/ WITH ELONGATED SFC LOW/FRONTAL ZONE                 
OUT AHEAD FROM ERN ND INTO THE UP OF MI. LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE                  
ZONE ON ERN PORTION OF THIS PRESSURE TROUGH CAUSING CUMULUS/ACCAS               
FIELD TO LOOK A LITTLE AGITATED...WITH KDLH 88-D HAVING PLENTY OF               
ELEVATED ECHO OVER NRN WISCONSIN. DRY SUBCLOUD LAYER ALLOWING                   
MAINLY VIRGA...THOUGH A FEW SPRINKLES HAVE BEEN NOTED NORTH OF                  
LOCAL FORECAST AREA. OTHERWISE...FLAT CUMULUS BASED AROUND 7KFT                 
WITH DWPTS AROUND 30 MUCH OF FORECAST AREA AND BREEZY SWLY FLOW                 
AHEAD OF AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH. LOW DEWPOINTS ALL THE WAY TO SRN                
TX WITH 04.12Z CNTL CONUS RAOBS NOT SHOWING CLIMATOLOGICALLY                    
NORMAL PWATS UNTIL ONE GETS ALL THE WAY TO CORPUS CHRISTI /TX/.                 
HENCE CLOUDS AT A MINIMUM MUCH OF CNTL CONUS.                                   
TONIGHT...EXPECT NRN MN PV ANOMALY TO SHIFT RAPIDLY                             
SOUTHEAST...CIRCUMNAVIGATING THE PERSISTENT NEGATIVE ANOMALY OVER               
CNTL CANADA. SURFACE FRONT WILL BEGIN TO SLOW/WASH OUT AS IT                    
BECOMES DETACHED FROM THE PARENT HEIGHT FALLS TURNING EAST.                     
EXPECT EVENING SPRINKLES/SHOWERS TO MAINLY STAY NORTH/EAST OF                   
FORECAST AREA. PLENTY OF CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT.                                   
MONDAY...YET ANOTHER WAVE...STRONGER IN THE 04.12Z DATA AND                     
FURTHER SOUTH...SWINGS AROUND CANADA VORTEX. VERY SIMILAR SETUP TO              
TONIGHT...THOUGH FURTHER SOUTH TRACK AND INCREMENTALLY MORE                     
BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE SHOULD ALLOW A LITTLE LARGER AREA OF                    
-SHRA INTO NRN WISCONSIN WHICH MAY MAKE IT AS FAR SOUTH AS I-94                 
CORRIDOR. HAVE SEEN SIGNALS FOR OTHER MORE ISOLD SHRA OVER SWRN                 
WISCONSIN WHERE LOCALLY STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL WORK WITH              
RELATIVELY HIGHER BOUNDARY LAYER THETA-E FOR A FEW UPDRAFTS. KEPT               
MONDAY POPS INTACT...AND REINTRODUCED EVENING POPS NORTH/EAST FOR               
PROGRESSION OF SHRA QUICKLY THROUGH THE NORTHWEST FLOW. SHOULD                  
AGAIN SEE PLENTY OF HIGH BASED AFTERNOON CUMULUS GIVEN THE STEEP                
LAPSE RATES. SREF CHANCES FOR MEASURABLE HAVE BEEN STEADY IN THEIR              
DEPICTION OF THIS LIGHT/SCATTERED QPF.                                          
TUESDAY...MOST NOTABLE TREND IN 04.12Z DATASETS WAS TO SLOW EWRD                
FRONTAL PASSAGE FROM EVENING/PEAK INSTABILITY BACK TO VERY LATE                 
TUES NIGHT OR EVEN WEDNESDAY MORNING. THIS IN RESPONSE TO LESS NRN              
STREAM /CANADIAN VORTEX/ INFLUENCE AND MORE RIDGING INTO CNTL                   
CONUS DOWNSTREAM OF BAJA CUTOFF LOW. THUS...HAVE DOUBTS ABOUT                   
SEVERE POTENTIAL ON TUES AFTN/EVE /PER CURRENT SWODY3/. RIGHT                   
NOW...NOT SEEING ANY REAL FOCUS TO DRIVE CONVECTION. SEEMS                      
BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE IN MODELS IS OVERDONE /PER CURRENT CNTL                 
CONUS COMPARISONS/ AND THUS CAPE IS BEING MISREPRESENTED A BIT.                 
MAY BE A WEAK WARM FRONTAL STRUCTURE ACROSS IOWA LIFTING NORTH BUT              
FLOW/CONVERGENCE INTO THIS BOUNDARY IS NOT ALL TOO IMPRESSIVE.                  
04.12Z WRF STILL SPOTTING QPF ALL OVER ON TUES AFTN/EVE BUT                     
QUICKLY KILLING IT OFF SUGGESTING THIS MORE A FUNCTION OF STEEP                 
LAPSE RATES/OVERDONE DEWPTS AND NOT FORCING FROM APPROACHING                    
PLAINS SHORTWAVE ENERGY. WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED FURTHER...AND DID              
NOT TOUCH POPS GIVEN SIGNAL THAT BETTER CHANCES MAY RESIDE LATER                
IN THE NIGHT WHEN Q/G FORCING AND FRONTAL ZONE MOVE NEAR/THROUGH.               
IF CONVECTION CAN DEVELOP TUES AFTN/EVE...SEEMS SOUTH/WEST AREAS                
STAND BEST CHANCE OF SEEING THIS PCPN.                                          
WEDNESDAY...OTHER TREND IN 04.12Z DATA WAS /GIVEN MORE RIDGING                  
INTO CNTL CONUS AND LESS NRN STREAM INFLUENCE/ A SHIFT NORTH WITH               
SFC CYCLONE AND HEAVY RAIN SHIELD ON WED/WED NIGHT IN THE CNTL                  
CONUS. 04.12Z GFS NOT SUPPORTED IN ANY WAY AND LOOKS VERY RIDDLED               
WITH CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK...SO IGNORING IT/S SWATH OF 2-3 INCH                   
RAINS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. SEEMS 04.12Z ECMWF/NAM ARE GOOD                 
WAYS TO GO RIGHT NOW...WITH POST FRONTAL /ISENTROPIC LIFT/ INDUCED              
RAIN SHIELD TO HAVE BETTER CHANCES OF MOVING BACK INTO FORECAST                 
AREA ON WED THAN PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT. SHIFTED POPS THIS WAY...BUT                
NOT IN EARNEST YET GIVEN NEW DEVELOPMENT HERE. STILL SEEMS PER                  
04.15Z SREF THAT MAIN HEAVY RAIN THREATS REMAIN ACROSS SRN IA/NRN               
MO/WRN IL...BUT THIS NWRD TREND NEEDS TO BE WATCHED GIVEN OUR                   
HYDRO STATUS AND RIVERS RUNNING HIGH.                                           
.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY                                            
CONFIDENCE DECREASES RAPIDLY THROUGH THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE                
FORECAST WITH DETAILS REGARDING PCPN POTENTIAL. SEEMS A PRETTY                  
CLEAR SIGNAL...AND HAS FOR SEVERAL DAYS...THAT BELOW NORMAL                     
TEMPERATURES /60S/ WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE AS BLOCKING ACROSS                 
HIGHER LATITUDES MAINTAINS BELOW CLIMATOLOGY HEIGHTS/THICKNESSES                
OVER THE NRN CONUS. MID-WEEK CNTL PLAINS/MS VALLEY SYSTEM WILL BE               
PULLING EAST ON THURSDAY WITH LIKELY A COUPLE DRY DAYS IN                       
SUBSIDENCE IN ITS WAKE. GETS A LITTLE MORE NEBULOUS INTO SAT/SUN                
AS DISAGREEMENT EXISTS ON HOW NWRN CONUS ENERGY WILL TRAVERSE THE               
NRN LATITUDES. MOST LONGER RANGE MODELS AGREE IN THESE HEIGHT                   
FALLS...OR A PART OF THEM EJECTING ACROSS THE PLAINS/NRN CONUS FRI              
NIGHT/SAT DRIVING A FRONTAL ZONE EAST INTO AREA WITH RAIN CHANCES.              
THUS...MAINTAINED RAIN CHANCES FROM FRI NIGHT THROUGH SUN TO                    
ACCOUNT FOR VARIED TIMING/ENERGY SEEN IN THE DETERMINISTIC                      
GEM/ECMWF/GFS DATASETS. GENERALLY ADOPTED HPC IDEAS /MID RANGE                  
RAIN CHANCES/ OVER THE WEEKEND UNTIL A STRONGER SIGNAL PRESENTS                 
ITSELF. WENT DRY THURS AND FRI.                                                 
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
THE WEAK 500 MB SHORT WAVE...THAT BROUGHT A BROKEN DECK OF HIGH                 
CLOUDS TO THE FORECAST AREA EALIER TODAY...HAS MOVED SOUTHEAST                  
INTO EASTERN WISCONSIN AND NORTHERN ILLINOIS. SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THIS            
SYSTEM HAS ALLOWED SOME CLEARING OF THE HIGH CLOUDS. THIS ALLOWED               
ENOUGH DIURNAL HEATING FOR A SCATTERED DECK OF HIGH BASE CUMULUS                
CLOUDS /6000-7000 FEET/. THESE CLOUDS SHOULD DISSIPATE WITH THE LOSS            
OF DIURNAL HEATING EARLY THIS EVENING. ANOTHER SERIES OF 500 MB                 
SHORT WAVE TROUGHS WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN MINNESOTA AND NORTHERN             
WISCONSIN LATE THIS AFTERNOON...EARLY MONDAY MORNING...AND LATE                 
MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MUCH OF THE FORCING WILL REMAIN NORTH             
AND EAST OF THE TAF SITES...SO WE SHOULD CONTINUE TO SEE VFR                    
CONDITIONS THROUGH MONDAY.                                                      
&&                                                                              
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
WI...NONE.                                                                      
MN...NONE.                                                                      
IA...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHORT/LONG TERM...BINAU                                                         
AVIATION...BOYNE                                                                
</pre> wi