FXUS04 KWBC 300636
QPFPFD
 
QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
235 AM EDT SAT OCT 30 2004
 
PRELIM DAY 1 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID OCT 30/1200 UTC THRU OCT 31/1200 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR
 
 
...DAY1...

...GT LAKES EWD INTO THE NE...

MODELS HAVE CONTINUED TO CONVERGE TO SIMILAR SOLNS REGARDING
THE HANDLING OF STG SYSTEM LIFTING NEWD ACRS THE UPR
MS VALLEY.   FOR THE MOST PART..QPFS ARE QUITE SIMILAR WITH
REGARD TO THE COMMA HEAD BAND WHICH IS FCST TO AFFECT
PORTIONS OF NRN MN WITH THE HEAVIEST RAINS..AND SAW LITTLE
REASON TO DEVIATE MUCH HERE.  FARTHER EAST..SIMILAR
TO THE DAY RUN..THE GFS CONTINUES TO SHOW DVLP AN AREA OF
ENHANCED 7H MSTR CONVERGENCE AND CORRESPONDING UPR
DIVERGENCE AT 25H IN THE WAA BAND ACRS THE ERN LAKES EWD INTO
NEW ENGLAND.  ETA MASS FIELDS LOOK NEARLY IDENTICAL..BUT DON'T
SHOW THE ENHANCED UVVS AND RESULTANT HEAVY QPF THAT THE GFS
DVLPS.  CANADIAN GEM AND MM5 SUGGEST BACKING AWAY FROM THE
GFS SOMEWHAT..BUT SUSPECT THE ETA IS STILL A BIT UNDERDONE
GIVEN THE STG LEFT EXIT REGION JET SUPPORT AND 40 KT PLUS LOW
LEVEL JET ACCOMPANYING LIFTING WARM FRONT. 

...SRN PLAINS/LOWER MS VALLEY...

SRN END OF COLD FRONT PUSHING ACRS THE ERN U.S. IS EXPECTED TO
STALL OVER THE SRN PLAINS AND LIKELY WILL BECOME THE FOCUS FOR
INCREASING CNVTN/OVERRUNNING RAINS AS UPR TROF BEGINS TO LIFT
OUT OF THE SW/WRN MEX LATE IN THE PD.  MODELS DIFFER IN
PLACEMENT OF HEAVIER RAINS..IN PART DUE TO DIFFERENCES IN
HANDLING OF FRONTAL BNDRY AS WELL AS HOW QUICKLY THE UPR FLOW
BACKS AHEAD OF APCHG UPR TROF.   THE GFS'S AXIS OF HEAVIER QPF 
LIES SOMEWHERE IN BETWEEN THE MORE NRN ETA AND MORE SRN MM5
SOLNS...WHILE THE CANADIAN GEM IS A TAD NORTH OF THE GFS.  GIVEN
THE SLIGHT NRN TREND OF BOTH THE GFS AND ETA OVER THE PAST 12
HOURS...WENT WITH A COMPROMISE SOMEWHERE BETWEEN THE TWO
SOLNS.   GIVEN THE USUAL DRY BIAS IN THE ETA AND THE FACT
THAT IT APPEARS TO LOWER PWS TOO MUCH IN SPITE OF INCREASING
RETURN FLOW FROM THE WRN GULF..INCREASED .50 INCH AREAL
COVERAGE SIGNIFICANTLY ACRS CNTL/NE TX INTO SRN AR/NRN LA.    

...PAC NW INTO THE NRN INTERMOUNTAIN REGION...

THE MDLS SHOW REASONABLE AGREEMENT HERE AS WELL BRINGING
PAC FRONTAL BNDRY RAPIDLY SEWD INTO THE INTERMOUNTAIN REGION
SAT AFTN.  COOL/MOIST ONSHORE FLOW IS FCST TO REMAIN BEHIND THE
FRONT WHICH SHOULD KEEP SHWRS AND HIER ELEV SNOWS GOING ACRS
THE COASTAL RANGES INTO THE WA/NRN OR CASCADES.   PATRN NOT
LIKELY TO CHANGE SIGNIFICANTLY WITH VERY STG JET POISED TO DIG
SEWD TOWARD OR/NRN CA LATE IN THE PD.   WENT TOWARD HEAVIER
ETA AMOUNTS WHICH SEEMS TO HAVE BETTER TOPO DETAILS. 


SULLIVAN


GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT WWW.HPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV 
24HR QP VT 31/12Z
 0.01 495948 510908 532815 525720 491647 457636 427661 410692 
      398719 395739 398750 388769 382780 376796 372805 369811 
      357823 352824 348831 345836 341843 337847 332853 327868 
      323874 321880 319887 318895 317905 315913 308925 304932 
      303936 303939 303948 301955 299963 299970 295988 293994 
      291999 285004 282012 285029 285037 283047 282056 280066 
      280075 280079 281084 284086 289087 294084 300080 305075 
      313065 322052 330040 337028 341022 344014 350978 354961 
      354957 356953 355946 357941 356935 355923 353912 352902 
      354896 357889 364875 368870 373864 385852 396839 405828 
      410826 413826 421825 425828 426832 426836 425841 418853 
      414861 414866 415872 418875 421876 429877 435878 439880 
      442884 441891 440894 437902 434907 434910 435916 436920 
      438924 440930 440943 441950 443957 445962 447966 452971 
      457973 466974 472974 479970 485965 488961 491955 495948 
 0.01 541202 541194 540189 536180 532170 526160 520153 514149 
      507144 501140 488127 481123 476121 474120 474117 478107 
      474097 473094 471089 467089 465093 462095 459093 456089 
      455086 453076 450072 446068 443067 438067 435068 432072 
      433075 435077 440077 444080 446082 448087 447089 445091 
      443090 430087 424083 421087 421091 424095 420099 413104 
      410098 406098 403102 403106 400112 402118 405121 414124 
      416126 417130 415138 413151 412157 413163 415165 418165 
      422161 423155 425152 426145 427137 428132 430128 432125 
      434123 437125 434132 431142 430154 432160 434164 439171 
      442174 442178 438186 437193 439201 441206 443211 441206 
      437207 426206 423210 423213 421218 415223 411234 407240 
      403254 400258 399262 399266 401270 407268 411265 424258 
      432256 441257 451260 461266 488288 494292 500296 507298 
      510298 525257 524253 521251 519246 517241 515236 513228 
      510224 509221 510217 513213 518212 523216 526220 529223 
      531226 534226 536221 538215 
 0.01 485196 485191 482189 476184 472183 469183 462186 458190 
      454197 448204 447208 453209 459204 467205 473202 479199 
      485196 
 0.01 416072 415072 414068 415066 416064 415061 412061 410064 
      408064 407065 404065 401066 400068 398071 398072 396076 
      397079 398080 401081 404081 407080 410077 412077 415076 
      415074 416072 
 0.01 286820 286817 283816 282815 280816 278816 275816 272817 
      270818 270820 271823 272824 274824 277824 280823 283822 
      285821 286820 
 0.25 524804 522792 519783 515776 512770 503762 498758 494753 
      486740 484735 483730 480719 481712 482704 483696 481689 
      477684 473678 468673 464668 459660 456656 453654 450654 
      444658 439661 437665 434671 430678 422689 419695 417701 
      417708 418717 420723 423729 427759 430775 434783 435788 
      436796 439802 443809 447814 451818 454823 456827 456831 
      454838 456845 460847 462851 463857 463864 463880 464886 
      466891 468895 471902 470909 469921 473930 475936 478941 
      481943 484940 487934 500909 507896 512883 517866 520851 
      523826 524811 524804 
 0.25 533210 534203 534200 532195 527184 516166 513161 508157 
      500154 496153 495158 493159 482156 479154 473150 468144 
      463141 456142 450150 450155 452159 454164 461164 469168 
      472167 476168 481169 486171 491175 497182 503184 508188 
      517195 519200 522204 530210 533210 
 0.25 518278 521269 521263 520259 517254 515247 512241 510234 
      506230 504224 499211 495206 489203 483203 478205 474207 
      470210 460214 458216 455217 449216 440218 437221 436225 
      441229 451226 456224 462229 460233 458234 452235 447237 
      448240 451242 461247 468249 473252 483259 489265 491270 
      498279 504283 508283 515281 518278 
 0.25 500251 498246 496243 493240 493239 491239 490243 492247 
      493248 494250 497252 500251 
 0.25 493149 492144 489139 486134 484131 481129 478128 475128 
      473128 472129 470132 470136 471138 474140 477140 480141 
      483141 485143 486144 488147 490148 491150 493149 
 0.25 460182 462178 460176 458177 456179 455180 456182 459182 
      460182 
 0.25 453105 454102 454099 453097 448096 445097 438098 434097 
      432095 431098 431104 424107 427111 428115 432116 436113 
      441114 444117 451113 450108 447105 453105 453105 
 0.25 346902 345893 345888 342884 341882 338882 334888 325911 
      319922 314933 312939 312946 310953 309958 305974 304988 
      299999 297005 296011 298017 305020 309020 314018 324010 
      330001 332996 332992 332986 334979 336974 343961 345955 
      346948 346932 345916 346902 
 0.25 306056 305052 304052 302053 300056 299056 297059 296061 
      296062 295065 296068 296069 297068 299067 301065 302064 
      303062 304059 305058 306056 
 0.50 519822 518813 516804 513796 509795 506795 503798 497809 
      492831 486858 482868 479879 477893 476904 474916 475925 
      478928 482929 486926 492915 503897 508886 511875 514863 
      517848 518835 519822 
 0.50 518273 520266 520262 515256 511246 508239 503233 499232 
      497236 501245 503253 503260 502262 497261 494263 497271 
      502276 508276 515276 518273 
 0.50 435718 441731 441740 442749 451747 466736 467720 459713 
      454704 455688 451672 442673 432690 430700 432711 432715 
      435718 
 0.50 514180 514176 513173 512170 510168 508166 505164 502164 
      499166 498167 498172 498173 501176 504178 506181 509182 
      512183 514180 
 0.50 496222 496217 494212 488208 483206 479208 473210 470213 
      467216 465217 466222 472219 475219 481221 487222 492223 
      496222 
 0.50 484245 483244 483240 481238 479236 476235 473236 471236 
      471241 472241 474245 477247 478248 480249 481249 483246 
      484245 
 0.50 477159 476158 473155 473154 470151 468149 466149 465148 
      462152 462157 464159 467162 470163 472163 475163 476162 
      477159 
 0.50 451221 448219 445219 444219 442222 441223 442224 445225 
      446224 448223 451221 
 0.50 446109 444106 441105 438108 441110 444112 446109 
 0.50 342935 342928 341921 340914 337912 330916 328919 326923 
      323926 322933 323943 325948 323964 318980 315990 312997 
      308005 307007 307011 309013 313013 317011 322006 327998 
      327991 326988 330968 331964 335961 338959 340956 342945 
      342935 
 0.50 312965 310972 311977 314969 312965 
 1.00 514266 516262 514260 512256 511256 509252 507249 506249 
      507250 507254 508258 509259 510265 513267 514266 
 1.00 507853 506849 504849 502850 496862 491871 487882 485888 
      484895 484901 482908 480912 479915 479919 481921 484918 
      486914 491904 495894 500884 504872 507858 507853 
 1.00 487215 485212 482211 479211 477212 479215 481217 484217 
      487215  
 
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