AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO                                              
332 PM MST FRI DEC 21 2007                                                      
.SHORT TERM...                                                                  
(TONIGHT AND SATURDAY)                                                          
...SNOW ENDING IN WESTERN MOUNTAINS THIS EVENING...                             
...SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW FOR MUCH OF EASTERN MOUNTAINS AND PLAINS...            
CURRENTLY...FRONT JUST PASS THROUGH KPUB AT 21Z...WHILE SOUTH OF                
KPUB THE WEATHER REMAINS BREEZY AND MILD WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE               
40S TO 50S NEAR THE MOUNTAINS.  SOME LIGHT SNOW HAS BEGUN OVER                  
MONUMENT HILL AS REPORTED BY SPOTTERS AND WEBCAMS.  IN THE CENTRAL              
AND SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS...WEBCAMS SUGGEST SNOW HAS BECOME LIGHTER.              
.TONIGHT...COMPACT UPPER LOW SPINNING OVER WESTERN COLORADO WILL                
CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTHEAST AND PASS ACROSS CENTRAL NEW MEXICO                   
OVERNIGHT.  WITH SOME COOLER CLOUD TOPS MOVING NORTHWARD INTO                   
SOUTHWEST COLORADO...THE ADVISORY FOR THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST                 
MOUNTAINS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH 03Z...AS SCHEDULED.  WHILE THE                  
HEAVIEST NOW IS LIKELY OVER...SOME LOCALLY HEAVY SNOW SHOWERS WILL              
CONTINUE.  FOR THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS AND EASTWARD...FORECAST IS                 
CHALLENGING GIVEN THE COMPACT NATURE OF THE SYSTEM.  700MB FLOW OF              
20 TO 40 KNOTS WILL DEVELOP DURING THE EVENING AND CONTINUE                     
OVERNIGHT.  MAIN QUESTION IS THE ORIENTATION OF THE FLOW FROM 700MB             
AND BELOW.  THE UPPER LOW TRACK LOOKS TO BE FAR ENOUGH SOUTHWEST                
THAT THE LOWER LEVEL FLOW WILL BE FROM THE NNE TO NE DURING THE                 
EVENING AND GRADUALLY TURN NORTHERLY DURING THE NIGHT.  THE FLOW                
WILL HAVE ENOUGH OF AN EASTERLY COMPONENT TO BRING WARNING CRITERIA             
SNOW TO THE WET MOUNTAINS AND SOUTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTO                         
MOUNTAINS...AND THE WARNINGS FOR THESE REGIONS HAVE BEEN                        
MAINTAINED.  THE BEST OROGRAPHICS WILL OCCUR UNTIL MIDNIGHT WITH                
700MB OF 20 TO 40 KNOTS...WITH LIGHTER SNOW OVERNIGHT. TO FURTHER               
NORTH...PIKES PEAK AND RAMPART RANGE WILL HAVE LESS OROGRAPHICS AND             
MAINTAINED ADVISORY FOR THESE REGIONS.                                          
THE DEEP NORTHERLY FLOW IS ALSO FAVORABLE FOR HEAVY SNOW ALONG THE              
INTERSTATE 25 CORRIDOR.  MODEL QPF GENERALLY SHOW A BAND OF HIGHER              
AMOUNTS IN THESE REGION...WITH SNOWFALL TOTAL APPROACHING OR                    
EXCEEDING 6 INCHES.  WITH THE GUSTY WINDS...HAVE UPGRADED THE                   
ADVISORY TO A WARNING FOR THIS REGION.                                          
ON THE PLAINS...WIND...OROGRAPHICS AND SOME DYNAMICS MAKE THE                   
FORECAST MORE COMPLICATED.  THE 12Z GFS...SREF AND RUC SUGGEST A                
FAIRLY NARROW BAND OF FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING ALONG THE NEW MEXICO              
BORDER DURING THE EVENING.  THERE WAS A BAND OF SIGNIFICANT                     
ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE WITH THIS AREA...BUT THIS BAND WAS LESS EVIDENT              
ON THE 18Z NAM. THIS REGION OF UPGLIDE MAY CREATE A REGION OF HIGHER            
ACCUMULATIONS.  OTHERWISE...MODEL QPF FIELDS SHOW A STRONG                      
OROGRAPHIC INFLUENCE WITH BEST ACCUMULATIONS SOUTH OF THE ARKANSAS              
RIVER.  GUSTY NORTH WINDS WILL ACCOMPANY THE SNOW.  THE BUFKIT                  
SOUNDINGS SHOW A REGION OF 40 TO 50 KNOT WINDS ALOFT LOWERING DURING            
THE NIGHT.  IF THESE WINDS WERE TO REACH THE SURFACE...THEN WINDS               
WILL BE SUFFICIENTLY STRONG FOR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS...IF THERE IS               
SUFFICIENT SNOWFALL.  LOOKING AT THE FORECAST SURFACE PRESSURE                  
GRADIENT AND PROJECTED PATH OF THE SURFACE LOW...THE REALLY STRONG              
WINDS WILL NOT REACH THE SURFACE.  STILL WINDS OF 15 TO 30 MPH WILL             
CREATE SIGNIFICANT BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW...BUT NOT ENOUGH FOR A             
BLIZZARD HIGHLIGHT.  TO GET VERY STRONG WINDS...THERE SHOULD BE A               
STRONGER AND SLOWER MOVING SURFACE LOW TO THE SOUTH OR EAST.                    
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WILL APPROACH ADVISORY CRITERIA...BUT THE THREAT               
FOR SIGNIFICANT BLOWING AND DRIFTING WARRANTS THE ADVISORY.                     
.SATURDAY...SYSTEM MOVES TO EAST WITH CLEARING DURING THE MORNING.              
SOME SNOW MAY LINGER AFTER 12Z ON THE FAR EASTERN PLAINS.  WINDS                
ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO BE STRONG...BUT WITH THE SURFACE LOW MOVING              
EAST...THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL WEAKEN FOR BREEZY                     
CONDITIONS ON THE PLAINS.  AIR ALOFT IS COLD WITH HIGHS STRUGGLING              
TO APPROACH FREEZING ON THE PLAINS. --PGW--                                     
.LONG TERM...                                                                   
(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)                                                         
...ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN CONTINUES...                                          
...TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN BELOW AVERAGE THROUGH NEXT WEEK...                    
...MODERATE IMPACT WEATHER SYSTEM POSSIBLE FOR CHRISTMAS...                     
SUNDAY AND MONDAY...ANOTHER QUICK MOVING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE                
MOVES THROUGH THE CENTRAL ROCKIES LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND                     
NIGHT...THEN OUT OF CO BY MONDAY. GREATEST CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION             
WOULD BE IN THE MOUNTAINS AND HIGH VALLEYS. MOISTURE CONTENT NOT                
ALL THAT GREAT...BUT WITH RELATIVELY COLD TEMPERATURES FLUFFY 1-4               
INCHES WOULD BE POSSIBLE...AGAIN MAINLY IN THE MOUNTAINS/HIGH                   
VALLEYS. MAXIMUM/MINIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW LATE DEC                
AVERAGES.                                                                       
CHRISTMAS DAY...MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST A LITTLE STRONGER WEATHER            
SYSTEM FOR LATE CHRISTMAS EVE AND CHRISTMAS DAY. THE WEATHER                    
SYSTEM DROPS INTO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES LATE CHRISTMAS EVE WITH THE               
POTENTIAL FOR SNOW SPREADING INTO THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE AND THEN               
ACROSS ALL OF CO ON CHRISTMAS DAY. THE WEATHER SYSTEM AND                       
ASSOCIATED WEATHER MAY MOVE OUT OF THE CENTRAL ROCKIES BY EARLY                 
WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE 12Z/21 ECMWF IS A LITTLE FURTHER SOUTH WITH              
THE 500MB LOW TRACK...BUT THERE MIGHT BE ENOUGH ISENTROPIC ASCENT               
ON THE NORTHERN FRINGE OF THE SYSTEM TO SUPPORT CLOUDS/PRECIPITATION.           
ASSUMING THE GFS QPF IS CORRECT...THERMAL STRUCTURE(COLD AIR                    
ALOFT) WOULD SUPPORT SNOW RATIOS OF 20-1 WITH VERY FLUFFY SNOW AND              
APPROXIMATELY 3-8 INCHES IN THE MOUNTAINS/HIGH VALLEYS AND 1-3                  
INCHES ALONG THE I-25 CORRIDOR AND SOUTHEAST CO PLAINS DURING                   
CHRISTMAS DAY. MIGHT NEED AN ADVISORY FOR CHRISTMAS DAY...JUST FOR              
THE HIGH TRAVEL DAY...BUT STILL A LONG WAY OFF. TEMPERATURES WILL               
CONTINUE TO BE BELOW LATE DEC AVERAGES.                                         
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...CERTAINLY AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN                  
CONTINUES WITH WEATHER DISTURBANCES MOVING THROUGH THE CENTRAL                  
ROCKIES EVERY OTHER DAY OR SO. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE                 
BELOW LATE DEC AVERAGES. EACH WEATHER SYSTEM DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE              
THAT STRONG...JUST NUISANCE...OR VERY LOW IMPACT...WEATHER. METZE               
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT                           
OVER THE PLAINS AND EASTERN MOUNTAINS...INCLUDING KPUB AND KCOS.                
KCOS WILL BE SHADOWED BY NORTHERLY WINDS...AND ANTICIPATE A PERIOD              
OF SNOW WITH LOWER CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES.  FURTHER TO THE                   
NORTH...EXPECT LOWER CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES IN THE SNOW.  KPUB               
WILL ALSO BE SHADOWED BY THE NORTHERLY FLOW...WITH LOWER CEILINGS               
AND VISIBILITIES WITH PERIODS OF SNOW.  CONDITIONS WILL BE WORSE TO             
THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST AS WELL AS OVER THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS.  KALS            
MAY GET A PERIOD OF SNOW WITH SOME MVFR CONDITIONS.                             
&&                                                                              
.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 5 AM                   
MST SATURDAY FOR COZ072-073-078-086-093-094-097>099.                            
SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR                  
COZ058>061-066-068.                                                             
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 5 AM MST SATURDAY                
FOR COZ074-075-079-080-087-088.                                                 
SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM MST SATURDAY FOR                      
COZ081-082-084.                                                                 
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
06/17                                                                           
</pre> co                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO                                              
408 AM MST FRI DEC 21 2007                                                      
.SHORT TERM...                                                                  
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)                                                             
...SNOW WILL FLY LATER TODAY INTO TONIGHT MOST AREAS...                         
...RUSH HOUR ACROSS COS AREA WILL BE AFFECTED THIS AFTERNOON...                 
CURRENTLY...WESTERLY SFC WINDS HAVE KEPT TEMPS UP THIS MORNING AS               
REASDING MOST AREAS ARE IN THE 30S AND 40S. CLOUDS OVER THE SAN LUIS            
VALLEY (SLV) HAVE EVEN KEPT TEMPS IN THE TEENS (VS NEGATIVE VALUES              
OF THE LAST WEEK OR SO). COMPOSITE RADAR ACROSS THE STATE INDICATS              
SNOW IS ALREADY FALLING OVER NW CO AND ECHOES ARE BEGINNING TO SHOW             
UP OVER NEW MEXICO. SFC CHART/3H P CHANGE SHOWS FRONT STILL UP IN               
THE C WY AREA. WATER VAPOR/RUC ANALYSIS FIEDLS SHOW TROUGH AXIS                 
EXTENDING FROM SALT LAKE SSW ACROSS S CALIF.                                    
MET DISCUSSION...THE "XMAS HOLIDAY WEEK ACTIVE WX PATTERN" WHICH HAS            
BEEN ADVERTISED BY THIS WFO THE LAST FEW DAYS WILL BEGIN TODAY.                 
FIRST IN A SERIES OF SYSTEMS STILL ON TRACK TO BRING SNOW TO THE                
REGION TODAY AND TONIGHT. COMBINATION OF STRONG FRONTOGENETICAL                 
FORCING S  OF HIWAY 50 AND STRONG NNE WINDS AT 700 MB SHOULB BRING              
THE HEAVIEST SNOW ACCUMS ACROSS THE WETS/SANGRE MTN RANGES THEN E               
TOWARDS THE KS BORDER S OF HIWAY 50. SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW WILL ALSO            
OCCUR ACROSS THE PALMER DIVIDE...BUT WIND MAY BE THE BIGGEST CONCERN            
OVER THIS REGION.                                                               
TODAY (THROUGH 18Z)...TWEAKED POPS A BIT HERE. KEPT VERY HITH POPS              
ALONG CONTDVD REGION BUT CUT BACK ALL OTEHR AREAS AS I DO NOT THINK             
WE WILL SEE ANY SIGNIF PRECIP E OF THE CONTDVD UNTIL AFTER 18Z.                 
ALSO...WARMED TEMPS UP A BIT THIS MORNING AS FRONT WILL LIKELY NOT              
CROSS THE PALMER UNTIL AT LEAST NOONISH.                                        
LATER TODAY (AFTER 18Z)...AFTER FRONT CROSSES THE PALMER DVD BELIEVE            
WINDS WILL PICK UP FROM THE N AND BECOME QUITE GUSTY AND TEMPS WILL             
BEGIN THERE DOWNWARD TREND. PRECIP WILL LIKELY BEGIN ACROSS TELLER              
COUNTY BY EARLY AFTERNOON AND REACH DOWN ACROSS N EL PASO BY MID TO             
LATE AFTERNOON. I DO BELIEVE RUSH HOUR WILL BE AFFECTED BY BLOWING              
SNOW ACROSS THE GREATER COS AREA...AND HAVE INTRODUCED A SNOW AND               
BLOWING SNOW ADVISORY FOR TELLER/N EL PASO STARTING A 21Z. ATTM...I             
AM MORE CONCERNED ABOUT THE BLOWING SNOW THAN THE ACCUMULATING SNOW             
AS WINDS BY LATER THIS AFTERNOON COULD BE IN THE 20-30 MPH RANGE AS             
LATEST GUIDANCE IS SHOWING 700 MB WINDS IN THE 40-50 KNOT RANGE. AS             
FOR THE MTNS...SNOWS WILL BE FLYING ACROSS THE CONTDVD WHERE 3-6" OF            
NEW SNOW SHOULD FALL BY 00Z.                                                    
TONIGHT...WINTER STORM WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT FOR THE WETS AND S                
SANGRE MTN RANGES. S/BS ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT FOR THE PLAINS                 
GENERALLY S OF US HIWAY 50. ADVISORIRES ARE ALSO IN EFFECT FOR THE              
WET MTN VALLEY AND THE N SANGRES. ADVISORIES ARE ONGOING ACROSS N EL            
PASO/TELLER. THE HEAVIEST SNOW WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL FALL ACROSS THE            
E FACING SLOPES OF THE WETS AND S SANGRES. THESE AREAS SHOULD SEE               
8-12" OF NEW SNOW BY 12Z TOMORROW. OVER THE PLAINS...THE HEAVIEST               
SNOWS WILL FALL GENERALLY ALONG THE RATON MESA ALONG THE CO/NM                  
BORDER. SOME OF THESE SNOW TOTAL REACHED INTO THE WARNING CATEGORY              
BUT DECIDED TO GO WITH A S/BS ADVISORY AS MOST OF THE REGION SHOULD             
SEE TOTALS IN THE 3-6 RANGE. WINDS WILL ALSO BE A CONCERN ACROSS                
THIS AREA TONIGHT AND TRAVEL WILL BE DIFFICULT ACROSS RATON PASS AND            
ALONG HIWAY S OF KLAA. AS ALWAYS WITH THESE NE WIND EVENTS...PUEBLO             
COUNTY WILL BE PROBLEMATIC. I AM CONFIDENT THAT THE S SXNS OF THE               
COUNTY WILL SEE S/BS CRITERIA BUT THE N PART OF THE COUNTY                      
(INCLUDING PUB) WILL NOT SEE MUCH. PLAN TO MENTION THIS IN DETAIL IN            
THE HILITE PACKAGE THAT WILL BE ISSUED SHORTLY. SNOW ACROSS THE                 
PALMER DVD SHOULD START TO WIND DOWN AFTER MIDNIGHT...AND ACROSS THE            
RATON MESA TOWARDS SUNRISE. /HODANISH                                           
.LONG TERM...                                                                   
(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)                                                     
...UNSETTLED WEATHER PROBABLE THROUGH THURSDAY...                               
FORECAST MODELS INDICATE THAT A STRING OF FAST MOVING UPPER LEVEL               
SYSTEMS WILL BE LINED UP TO AFFECT THE REGION THROUGH THURSDAY.                 
MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN THE 20S AND 30S EACH             
DAY...THEN DROP INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS TO TEENS EACH NIGHT. THE                 
EXCEPTION WILL BE THE SAN LUIS VALLEY...WHERE LOW TEMPS WILL MOST               
LIKELY DIP WELL BELOW ZERO EACH NIGHT.                                          
SATURDAY...THE FIRST UPPER TROUGH WILL BE EXITING THE REGION SAT                
MORNING...MAKING FOR AN INITIALLY COLD AND BLUSTERY START ACROSS THE            
FAR E PLAINS. NW FLOW SETTLES IN...WITH LINGERING POTENTIAL FOR                 
ISOLATED SNOW OVER THE CENTRAL MTS WHILE THE PLAINS CLEAR OUT DURING            
THE AFTN.                                                                       
SUNDAY AND MONDAY...NEXT SYSTEM DROPS DOWN ACROSS THE N                         
ROCKIES...PRODUCING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SNOW FOR THE CONTDVD                  
THROUGH THE DAY...THEN SPREADING TO THE ENTIRE CWA BY THE EVENING.              
BY MON MORNING THIS LOW SHOULD BE MOVING OUT...WITH PCPN TAPERING               
OFF ACROSS THE SE CORNER. A BREAK IN THE ACTIVE PATTERN IS FORECAST             
FOR THE REST OF MONDAY...BEFORE THE NEXT SYSTEM DROPS DOWN FOR THE              
NIGHT.                                                                          
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...LONG RANGE MODELS ARE                      
INDICATING THAT THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM WILL DROP A BIT FURTHER SOUTH             
THAN PREVIOUS DISTURBANCES. THIS TRANSLATES TO A GREATER CHANCE OF              
SNOW FOR THE CONTDVD CHRISTMAS EVE...THEN ALL OF THE FORECAST AREA              
THROUGH CHRISTMAS DAY.                                                          
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...LOOKS TO BE A REPEAT OF MONDAY AND TUESDAY.            
ALL OF THESE SYSTEMS DO NOT LOOK TOO IMPRESSIVE WHEN TALKING ABOUT              
SNOW AMOUNTS...BUT THE RAPID SUCCESSION INCREASES THE POTENTIAL OF              
IT FEELING LIKE THE HOLIDAY SEASON THROUGH NEXT WEEK. MOORE                     
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
ALL TAF SITES WILL BE IMPACTED BY THIS WX SYSTEM. FRONT SHOULD CROSS            
KCOS AROUND 18Z AND KPUB BY 19Z. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE N AND                  
BECOME QUITE GUSTY...WITH N WINDS 20-30 MPH. ACROSS THE KCOS                    
REGION...SNOW SHOULD BECOME A CONCERN BY LATE IN THE AFTERNOON AND              
LASTING INTO THE EVENING. ACCUMS SHOULD NOT BE A MAIN CONCERN                   
(1-2")...BUT WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN ISSUE. BY LATER THIS                        
EVENING...NORTHERLY WINDS COULD BE APPROACHING 35 KNOTS. THE SNOW               
AND WINDS SHOULD BEGIN TO DECREASE AFTER MIDNIGHT. WITH N                       
WINDS...CIGS SHOULD NOT BE A MAJOR CONCERN AND SNOW SHOULD NOT BE               
HEAVY...EXPECT MAINLY MVFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE WORST OF IT.                  
HOWEVER..IF SNOWS ACCUM A BIT MORE THAN EXPECTED...AND THINGS START             
BLOWING THEN VIS COULD BE SEVERELY RESTRICTED THIS EVENING DUE TO               
THE BLOWING SNOW.                                                               
KPUB...WINDS AND SNOW WILL BE LESS ACROSS KPUB. MAIN ACTIVITY WILL              
BE THIS EVENING WITH CIGS MAINLY IN THE BKN020-030 RANGE AND VIS                
RESTRICTIONS 2-3SM.                                                             
KALS...EXPECT PERIODS OF SNOW IN THE VALLEL DURING THE EVENING                  
PERIOD. BRIEF HEAVY SNOW COULD CAUSE IFR CONDITIONS AT TIMES.                   
&&                                                                              
.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 5 AM                   
MST SATURDAY FOR COZ072-073-078-086>088-093-094-097>099.                        
SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR                  
COZ058>061-066-068.                                                             
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 5 AM MST SATURDAY                
FOR COZ074-075-079-080.                                                         
SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 2 AM                 
MST SATURDAY FOR COZ081-082-084.                                                
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
34/27                                                                           
</pre> co                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY                                              
1225 AM EST FRI DEC 21 2007                                                     
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
HIGH PRESSURE OVER QUEBEC WILL BUILD SOUTH INTO NEW ENGLAND AND NEW             
YORK TODAY. SATURDAY IT WILL SLIDE OFFSHORE AND A SOUTHERLY FLOW                
OF MILDER AIR WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED OVER THE EASTERN SEABOARD. A              
STORM WILL ORGANIZE IN THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY SATURDAY AFTERNOON            
AND INTENSIFY AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION TO HUDSON`S            
BAY SUNDAY. AHEAD OF IT INCREASING MOISTURE WILL BRING A WINTRY MIX             
OF PRECIPITATION AT FIRST...BUT IT WILL WARM ENOUGH TO CHANGE THE               
PRECIPITATION TO RAIN...WHICH WILL BE HEAVY AT TIMES SUNDAY                     
AFTERNOON. THE STORMS COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP TROUGH THE REGION SUNDAY            
NIGHT...AND IT WILL TURN MUCH COLDER. CHRISTMAS EVE AN UPPER LEVEL              
DISTURBANCE WILL PASS ACROSS THE REGION AND IN THE CHILLY NORTHWEST             
FLOW WILL TRIGGER SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD              
INTO THE REGION FROM ONTARIO CHRISTMAS DAY.                                     
&&                                                                              
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY/...                                               
IT SEEMS A NARROW YET PERSIST/INTERMITTENT  BAND OF LIGHT SNOW                  
CONTINUES TO IMPACT WESTERN NEW ENGLAND AND ATTEMPTING TO CROSS INTO            
EASTERN NEW YORK (NORTH OF THE MID HUDSON VALLEY).  LATEST RUN OF               
THE RUC13 AND 00Z NAM/WRF INDICATE THIS IS RESPONSE TO LOW LEVEL                
CONVERGENCE AND DEFORMATION WHICH IS EXPECTED TO BE INTERMITTENT                
THROUGH TONIGHT.  WILL UPDATE POPS ACCORDINGLY BUT KEEP IT IN THE               
SLIGHT CHANCE CATEGORY.  WHERE IT HAS SNOWED...VISIBILITIES HAVE                
DROPPED BACK 1-3 MILES...MAINLY ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. THE               
OTHER CONCERN IS THE TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT.  WITH PERSISTENT CLOUD             
COVER AND LACK OF ADVECTION...WILL RAISE OVERNIGHT LOWS SEVERAL                 
DEGREES WHICH CORRESPONDS WELL WITH THE 00Z RUN OF THE GFS LAMP.                
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT/...                                        
THE SURFACE HIGH WILL BE CENTERED TO OUR EAST AND WILL SHIFT OFF                
THE NEW ENGLAND COAST FRIDAY NIGHT. IT WILL KEEP US DRY WITH A                  
DEVELOPING SOUTHEAST FLOW. LOW LEVEL CLOUDS WILL LIFT FRIDAY BUT                
HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WELL IN ADVANCE OFF OF THE SYSTEM FOR THE WEEKEND             
WILL BE STREAMING IN...SO NOT MUCH SUN EXPECTED. TEMPERATURES WILL              
BE SEASONABLE.                                                                  
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...                                       
HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OFF THE ATLC COAST SATURDAY...AND SOUTHERNLY               
FLOW INCREASES THROUGH THE DAY.  500HPA RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN                  
SEABOARD. CLOUDS WILL BE VARIABLE AS WAA PRODUCES MID AND HI                    
CLOUDS. MEANWHILE THE LOW LEVEL SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL ALSO BRING                  
MOISTURE INTO THE REGION AND CONSIDERABLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE                    
REMAINS THAT HAS LINGERED SINCE THURSDAY. SO ALOT OF CLOUDS AND BY              
SAT AFTN AND EVENING SPOTTY LIGHT DRIZZLE...FREEZING DRIZZLE AND                
FLURRIES.  TEMPERATURES MAY FALL A BIT DURING THE EVENING...BUT                 
INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL RESULT IN STEADY OR SLOWLY RISING                
TEMPS OVERNIGHT. TEMPS WILL STILL BE AROUND OR BLO FREEZING IN                  
MANY AREAS AND PTYPE LIKELY TO BE ZR...BUT AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT.               
RAPIDLY DEEPENING SURFACE LOW IN THE GREAT LAKES SUNDAY WILL PUSH               
A CDFNT INTO NYS SUN AFTERNOON...WHICH SWEEPS EAST ACROSS REGION                
BY EVENING. WITH RAPIDLY INCREASE SOUTHERNLY INFLOW AHEAD OF THE                
SYSTEM TEMPS WILL RISE INTO THE 40S...AND KATAFRONT TYPE DYNAMICS               
OF SHOWERY/SQUALLY RAINS WILL DEVELOP ALONG AND AHEAD OF CDFNT.                 
ENSEMBLE QPF AMOUNTS FM PLUMES OF 1 TO 2 INCHES LIKELY IN 6 TO 9                
HOUR PERIOD. SIGNIFICANT SNOWMELT AND RUNOFF LIKELY. SEE HYDRO                  
SECTION FOR PARTICULARS. THE 500HPA CUTOFF...FOLLOWS ACROSS THE                 
REGION SUNDAY NIGHT AS VERY STRONG CAA FLASH FREEZES ANY REMAINING              
LIQUID...AND MELTED SNOW. ALSO THE PASSAGE OF THE CUT OFF WILL BE               
ACCOMPANIED BY SECONDARY ARCTIC CDFNT CHRISTMAS EVE WITH SCT -SHSN              
IN CAA...WITH STRONG UPPER DYNAMICS...BUT NOT IDEAL SETUP FOR LAKE              
EFFECT IN FCA. FINALLY SURFACE HIGH AND 500HPA RIDGE BUILD ACROSS               
THE REGION CHRISTMAS DAY...AND SEASONABLE TEMPS AND MAINLY CLEAR                
SKIES THE RESULT. BEYOND THEN THE SURFACE HIGH PASSES OFFSHORE...AND            
THE MODELS DIVERGE ON A VARIETY OF PASSING WEATHER SYSTEMS. WITH                
CUT OFF LOW ORGANIZING OVER GRTLKS REGION..ONE SFC LOW PASSES WELL              
SOUTH OF REGION OR THROUGH REGION THURSDAY OR FRIDAY. FOR NOW WENT              
WITH GFS MOS GUIDANCE AND SCT -SHSN AND CHC SNOW AT END OF EFP.                 
AFTER ALL THE 1.5 PVU ANOMALY THAT WILL ORGANIZE THIS SYSTEM IS                 
CURRENTLY NEAR TOKYO JAPAN.                                                     
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...                                       
AN EAST/NORTHEASTERLY FLOW AT LOW LEVELS IS RESULTING IN WIDE                   
SPREAD MVFR TO IFR CEILINGS OVER THE REGION WITH BROKEN TO                      
OVERCAST STRATUS 600 TO 2000 FEET AGL AT MANY OF THE METAR                      
SITES...WITH WIDESPREAD IFR/LIFR CEILINGS AND OBSCURATIONS                      
OVER HIGHER TERRAIN. A CONTINUED FLOW OF VERY MOIST AIR OFF                     
THE ATLANTIC WILL RESULT IN IMPROVEMENT BEING SLOW TO OCCUR.                    
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT FROM THE NORTH AND EAST IN THE EARLY                        
MORNING HOURS...AND EASTERLY AROUND 5 KNOTS DURING THE DAY                      
TODAY.                                                                          
OUTLOOK...                                                                      
TONIGHT...MVFR/IFR DUE TO LOW CLOUDS AND/OR FOG.                                
SAT...VFR...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED.                                    
SUN...IFR MIXED PCPN...STRONG S-SE WINDS.                                       
MON...VFR...EXCEPT MVFR/IFR IN LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS DOWNWIND                
      OF LAKE ONTARIO                                                           
TUE...VFR...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED.                                    
&&                                                                              
.HYDROLOGY...                                                                   
NO HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH SATURDAY. A STRONG STORM              
SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE REGION ON SUNDAY. STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE             
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA ON SUNDAY. THIS WILL BRING A                
WARM SURGE OVER A SNOW PACK THAT CONTAINS 1 TO 3 INCHES OF WATER                
EQUIVALENT FROM ALBANY SOUTH AND 2 TO 4 INCHES OF WATER EQUIVALENT              
OVER NORTHERN AREAS. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA SUNDAY                    
EVENING. MODELS HAVE TRENDED WETTER BRINGING AROUND AN INCH OF RAIN             
TO ALL AREAS IN A 6 HOUR PERIOD SUNDAY AFTERNOON OR EVENING. THE                
UPPER MOHAWK...MOOSE...UPPER HUDSON AND VERMONT BASINS ARE EXPECTED             
TO SEE A 6 TO 12 HOUR WARM PERIOD LATE SUNDAY...WHICH WILL PROBABLY             
NOT BE ENOUGH TO RIPEN THE SNOW. NORTHERN SNOW COVER SHOULD ABSORB              
THE RAIN WITH MINIMAL RUNOFF BEFORE REFREEZING. HOWEVER...SOUTHERN              
AREAS MAY SEE 18 TO 24 HOURS OF ABOVE FREEZING TEMPERATURES. THE                
QUESTION IS HOW MUCH SNOW MELTS. LOCAL RIVER MODELS SHOW THAT                   
STREAMS CAN HANDLE AS MUCH AS TWO INCHES OF COMBINED MELT AND RAIN              
WITH MINIMAL FLOODING. 3 INCHES OR MORE OF MELT AND RAIN WOULD CAUSE            
SIGNIFICANT FLOODING. THE GROUND HERE AT ALBANY IS FROZEN TO A DEPTH            
OF 5 INCHES. FROZEN GROUND ENHANCES THE CHANCES THAT FLOODING...AND             
POSSIBLY FLASH FLOODING...MAY OCCUR. RIVER ICE COVER IS NOT THICK               
ENOUGH TO CAUSE ICE JAM PROBLEMS. THE HIGHEST CONFIDENCE IS FOR                 
TIDAL FLOODING LATE SUNDAY ALONG THE MID HUDSON RIVER NEAR KINGSTON             
AND POUGHKEEPSIE DUE TO STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS. OTHER BASINS AT RISK            
FOR FLOODING INCLUDES THE SCHOHARIE...THE LOWER MOHAWK...THE                    
ESOPUS...THE BATTEN KILL...THE HOOSIC...WAPPINGERS CREEK AND THE                
HOUSATONIC AND ITS TRIBUTARIES FROM FALLS VILLAGE DOWN STREAM.                  
FREEZING TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA BY MONDAY             
MORNING WHICH WILL END THE RUNOFF. IF FLOODING WERE TO OCCUR IT                 
WOULD MOST LIKELY BEGIN SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND LINGER INTO MONDAY.                
&&                                                                              
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
CT...NONE.                                                                      
NY...NONE.                                                                      
MA...NONE.                                                                      
VT...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SYNOPSIS...SNYDER                                                               
NEAR TERM...BGM                                                                 
SHORT TERM...IAA                                                                
LONG TERM...SNYDER                                                              
AVIATION...RCK                                                                  
HYDROLOGY...DIRIENZO                                                            
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ALBANY                                                          
</pre> ct                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY                                              
924 PM EST THU DEC 20 2007                                                      
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
HIGH PRESSURE OVER QUEBEC WILL BUILD SOUTH INTO NEW ENGLAND AND                 
NEW YORK TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. SATURDAY IT WILL SLIDE OFFSHORE AND A              
SOUTHERLY FLOW OF MILDER AIR WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED OVER THE                   
EASTERN SEABOARD. A STORM WILL ORGANIZE IN THE MID MISSISSIPPI                  
VALLEY SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND INTENSIFY AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE                 
GREAT LAKES REGION TO HUDSON`S BAY SUNDAY. AHEAD OF IT INCREASING               
MOISTURE WILL BRING A WINTRY MIX OF PRECIPITATION AT FIRST...BUT                
IT WILL WARM ENOUGH TO CHANGE THE PRECIPITATION TO RAIN...WHICH WILL            
BE HEAVY AT TIMES SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THE STORMS COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP            
TROUGH THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT...AND IT WILL TURN MUCH COLDER.                  
CHRISTMAS EVE AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL PASS ACROSS THE                   
REGION AND IN THE CHILLY NORTHWEST FLOW WILL TRIGGER SCATTERED                  
SNOW SHOWERS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION FROM                     
ONTARIO CHRISTMAS DAY.                                                          
&&                                                                              
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY/...                                               
IT SEEMS A NARROW YET PERSIST/INTERMITTENT  BAND OF LIGHT SNOW                  
CONTINUES TO IMPACT WESTERN NEW ENGLAND AND ATTEMPTING TO CROSS INTO            
EASTERN NEW YORK (NORTH OF THE MID HUDSON VALLEY).  LATEST RUN OF               
THE RUC13 AND 00Z NAM/WRF INDICATE THIS IS RESPONSE TO LOW LEVEL                
CONVERGENCE AND DEFORMATION WHICH IS EXPECTED TO BE INTERMITTENT                
THROUGH TONIGHT.  WILL UPDATE POPS ACCORDINGLY BUT KEEP IT IN THE               
SLIGHT CHANCE CATEGORY.  WHERE IT HAS SNOWED...VISIBILITIES HAVE                
DROPPED BACK 1-3 MILES...MAINLY ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. THE               
OTHER CONCERN IS THE TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT.  WITH PERSISTENT CLOUD             
COVER AND LACK OF ADVECTION...WILL RAISE OVERNIGHT LOWS SEVERAL                 
DEGREES WHICH CORRESPONDS WELL WITH THE 00Z RUN OF THE GFS LAMP.                
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT/...                                        
THE SURFACE HIGH WILL BE CENTERED TO OUR EAST AND WILL SHIFT OFF                
THE NEW ENGLAND COAST FRIDAY NIGHT. IT WILL KEEP US DRY WITH A                  
DEVELOPING SOUTHEAST FLOW. LOW LEVEL CLOUDS WILL LIFT FRIDAY BUT                
HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WELL IN ADVANCE OFF OF THE SYSTEM FOR THE WEEKEND             
WILL BE STREAMING IN...SO NOT MUCH SUN EXPECTED. TEMPERATURES WILL              
BE SEASONABLE.                                                                  
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...                                       
HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OFF THE ATLC COAST SATURDAY...AND SOUTHERNLY               
FLOW INCREASES THROUGH THE DAY.  500HPA RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN                  
SEABOARD. CLOUDS WILL BE VARIABLE AS WAA PRODUCES MID AND HI                    
CLOUDS. MEANWHILE THE LOW LEVEL SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL ALSO BRING                  
MOISTURE INTO THE REGION AND CONSIDERABLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE                    
REMAINS THAT HAS LINGERED SINCE THURSDAY. SO ALOT OF CLOUDS AND BY              
SAT AFTN AND EVENING SPOTTY LIGHT DRIZZLE...FREEZING DRIZZLE AND                
FLURRIES.  TEMPERATURES MAY FALL A BIT DURING THE EVENING...BUT                 
INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL RESULT IN STEADY OR SLOWLY RISING                
TEMPS OVERNIGHT. TEMPS WILL STILL BE AROUND OR BLO FREEZING IN                  
MANY AREAS AND PTYPE LIKELY TO BE ZR...BUT AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT.               
RAPIDLY DEEPENING SURFACE LOW IN THE GREAT LAKES SUNDAY WILL PUSH               
A CDFNT INTO NYS SUN AFTERNOON...WHICH SWEEPS EAST ACROSS REGION                
BY EVENING. WITH RAPIDLY INCREASE SOUTHERNLY INFLOW AHEAD OF THE                
SYSTEM TEMPS WILL RISE INTO THE 40S...AND KATAFRONT TYPE DYNAMICS               
OF SHOWERY/SQUALLY RAINS WILL DEVELOP ALONG AND AHEAD OF CDFNT.                 
ENSEMBLE QPF AMOUNTS FM PLUMES OF 1 TO 2 INCHES LIKELY IN 6 TO 9                
HOUR PERIOD. SIGNIFICANT SNOWMELT AND RUNOFF LIKELY. SEE HYDRO                  
SECTION FOR PARTICULARS. THE 500HPA CUTOFF...FOLLOWS ACROSS THE                 
REGION SUNDAY NIGHT AS VERY STRONG CAA FLASH FREEZES ANY REMAINING              
LIQUID...AND MELTED SNOW. ALSO THE PASSAGE OF THE CUT OFF WILL BE               
ACCOMPANIED BY SECONDARY ARCTIC CDFNT CHRISTMAS EVE WITH SCT -SHSN              
IN CAA...WITH STRONG UPPER DYNAMICS...BUT NOT IDEAL SETUP FOR LAKE              
EFFECT IN FCA. FINALLY SURFACE HIGH AND 500HPA RIDGE BUILD ACROSS               
THE REGION CHRISTMAS DAY...AND SEASONABLE TEMPS AND MAINLY CLEAR                
SKIES THE RESULT. BEYOND THEN THE SURFACE HIGH PASSES OFFSHORE...AND            
THE MODELS DIVERGE ON A VARIETY OF PASSING WEATHER SYSTEMS. WITH                
CUT OFF LOW ORGANIZING OVER GRTLKS REGION..ONE SFC LOW PASSES WELL              
SOUTH OF REGION OR THROUGH REGION THURSDAY OR FRIDAY. FOR NOW WENT              
WITH GFS MOS GUIDANCE AND SCT -SHSN AND CHC SNOW AT END OF EFP.                 
AFTER ALL THE 1.5 PVU ANOMALY THAT WILL ORGANIZE THIS SYSTEM IS                 
CURRENTLY NEAR TOKYO JAPAN.                                                     
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...                                       
RIDGING BUILDS...HOWEVER...LOW LEVELS ARE VERY MOIST AND HAVE LITTLE            
WIND FLOW (LIGHT NORTHEAST WIND). MVFR-VFR CONDITIONS WILL LOWER                
THIS EVENING BACK TO IFR CONDITIONS WHICH WILL PERSIST THROUGH                  
FRIDAY MORNING. THERE COULD ALSO BE PERIOD OF LIFR AFTER 06Z WITH               
NOCTURNAL COOLING OF THE COLUMN AND SHRINKING DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS.             
WITH TEMPERATURES BELOW FREEZING...FREEZING FOG IS CONCERN                      
OVERNIGHT. CONDITIONS SLOWLY IMPROVE FRIDAY BUT LIKELY NOT MUCH                 
BETTER THAN MVFR.                                                               
OUTLOOK...                                                                      
SAT...VFR...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED.                                    
SUN...IFR MIXED PCPN...STRONG S-SE WINDS...POSSIBLE LLWS.                       
MON...VFR...EXCEPT MVFR/IFR IN LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS                         
            DOWNWIND OF LAKE ONTARIO...WINDY WITH LLWS POTENTIAL.               
TUE...VFR...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.                       
&&                                                                              
.HYDROLOGY...                                                                   
NO HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH SATURDAY. A STRONG STORM              
SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE REGION ON SUNDAY. STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE             
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA ON SUNDAY. THIS WILL BRING A                
WARM SURGE OVER A SNOW PACK THAT CONTAINS 1 TO 3 INCHES OF WATER                
EQUIVALENT FROM ALBANY SOUTH AND 2 TO 4 INCHES OF WATER EQUIVALENT              
OVER NORTHERN AREAS. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA SUNDAY                    
EVENING. MODELS HAVE TRENDED WETTER BRINGING AROUND AN INCH OF RAIN             
TO ALL AREAS IN A 6 HOUR PERIOD SUNDAY AFTERNOON OR EVENING. THE                
UPPER MOHAWK...MOOSE...UPPER HUDSON AND VERMONT BASINS ARE EXPECTED             
TO SEE A 6 TO 12 HOUR WARM PERIOD LATE SUNDAY...WHICH WILL PROBABLY             
NOT BE ENOUGH TO RIPEN THE SNOW. NORTHERN SNOW COVER SHOULD ABSORB              
THE RAIN WITH MINIMAL RUNOFF BEFORE REFREEZING. HOWEVER...SOUTHERN              
AREAS MAY SEE 18 TO 24 HOURS OF ABOVE FREEZING TEMPERATURES. THE                
QUESTION IS HOW MUCH SNOW MELTS. LOCAL RIVER MODELS SHOW THAT                   
STREAMS CAN HANDLE AS MUCH AS TWO INCHES OF COMBINED MELT AND RAIN              
WITH MINIMAL FLOODING. 3 INCHES OR MORE OF MELT AND RAIN WOULD CAUSE            
SIGNIFICANT FLOODING. THE GROUND HERE AT ALBANY IS FROZEN TO A DEPTH            
OF 5 INCHES. FROZEN GROUND ENHANCES THE CHANCES THAT FLOODING...AND             
POSSIBLY FLASH FLOODING...MAY OCCUR. RIVER ICE COVER IS NOT THICK               
ENOUGH TO CAUSE ICE JAM PROBLEMS. THE HIGHEST CONFIDENCE IS FOR                 
TIDAL FLOODING LATE SUNDAY ALONG THE MID HUDSON RIVER NEAR KINGSTON             
AND POUGHKEEPSIE DUE TO STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS. OTHER BASINS AT RISK            
FOR FLOODING INCLUDES THE SCHOHARIE...THE LOWER MOHAWK...THE                    
ESOPUS...THE BATTEN KILL...THE HOOSIC...WAPPINGERS CREEK AND THE                
HOUSATONIC AND ITS TRIBUTARIES FROM FALLS VILLAGE DOWN STREAM.                  
FREEZING TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA BY MONDAY             
MORNING WHICH WILL END THE RUNOFF. IF FLOODING WERE TO OCCUR IT                 
WOULD MOST LIKELY BEGIN SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND LINGER INTO MONDAY.                
&&                                                                              
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
CT...NONE.                                                                      
NY...NONE.                                                                      
MA...NONE.                                                                      
VT...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SYNOPSIS...SNYDER                                                               
NEAR TERM...BGM                                                                 
SHORT TERM...IAA                                                                
LONG TERM...SNYDER                                                              
AVIATION...BGM                                                                  
HYDROLOGY...DIRIENZO                                                            
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ALBANY                                                          
</pre> ct                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY                                              
654 AM EST THU DEC 20 2007                                                      
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
LOW PRESSURE WELL SOUTHEAST OF CAPE COD WILL MOVE EAST TODAY...AS               
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM CONTINUES SCATTERED              
SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.  HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN                
FROM EASTERN QUEBEC THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.  THE HIGH WILL MOVE             
SOUTHWARD FRIDAY NIGHT TO NEAR THE GULF OF MAINE.  A RETURN                     
SOUTHERLY FLOW OF MILD AIR WILL OCCUR ON SATURDAY WITH TEMPERATURES             
ABOVE NORMAL FOR LATE DECEMBER.  A COLD FRONT PROGRESSING SLOWLY                
EAST FROM THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY ON SATURDAY...WILL BRING RAIN            
AND WINDY CONDITIONS FOR SUNDAY.                                                
&&                                                                              
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...                                         
THE LATEST RUC ANALYSIS COUPLED WITH NEIGHBORING RADARS THIS MORNING            
DEPICTS SECONDARY COASTAL REDEVELOPMENT OCCURRING WELL SOUTHEAST OF             
NANTUCKET WITH THE PRIMARY CLIPPER WEAKENING OVER CNTRL NY.  A SHORT            
WAVE PIVOTING AROUND THE CLOSED 500 MB LOW IS MOVING ACROSS ERN                 
NY...WHICH IS HELPING TO FOCUS SOME OF THE -SN ACTIVITY.  MOST                  
SNOWFALL REPORTS IN OUR FCST AREA WERE IN THE HALF AN INCH TO TWO               
INCH RANGE EARLY THIS MORNING.  ADDITIONAL SNOW AMOUNTS OF A DUSTING            
TO AN INCH OR SO WILL BE POSSIBLE...EXCEPT A LITTLE MORE IS LIKELY              
OVER SRN VT.  THE SHORT WAVE ENERGY ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE LONG               
WAVE TROUGH SHOULD ALLOW THE COASTAL WAVE TO CONTINUE TO DEEPEN AND             
INTENSIFY...HOWEVER...THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE/QPF DRAWN BACK UPSTREAM            
INTO OUR FCST AREA WILL BE LIMITED.  SOUTHEASTERN VT /WINDHAM                   
COUNTY/ MAY RECEIVE ANOTHER 1-4" OF SNOW TODAY...AS THE 850 MB                  
CLOSED CIRCULATION IS JUST EAST OF CAPE COD 12Z-18Z.  THE 850-700 MB            
DEFORMATION ZONE WITH WEAK TO MODERATE MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS                  
EXTENDS TO THE W/NW ENOUGH FOR PERIODS OF LIGHT TO POSSIBLY MODERATE            
SNOW NORTHEAST OF THE CAPITAL REGION.  FOR THE REST OF THE FORECAST             
AREA...STEEP LOW TO MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES...LOTS OF LOW LEVEL                   
MOISTURE...AND CYCLONIC VORTICITY ADVECTION WILL KEEP SCT SNOW                  
SHOWERS/FLURRIES AROUND THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY. ENOUGH WARMING IN              
THE BOUNDARY LAYER MAY EVEN ALLOW ONLY RAIN SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES IN             
THE MID HUDSON VALLEY.  850 MB TEMPS OF ABOUT -6C TO -8C SHOULD                 
ALLOW HIGHS IN THE L30S TO U30S IN THE VALLEYS...AND M20S TO L30S IN            
THE HILLS AND MTNS.  WE LEANED CLOSE TO THE GFSMOS MAX TEMP VALUES.             
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...                             
THURSDAY NIGHT...THE UPPER LEVEL LOW MIGRATES DOWNSTREAM WITH ANY               
LEFTOVER SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES ENDING AROUND MIDNIGHT.  WEAK 850 MB             
COLD AIR ADVECTION OCCURS WITH A 1037 HPA SFC ANTICYCLONE BUILDING              
SOUTH/SOUTHEAST FROM ERN QUEBEC/THE GULF OF ST LAWRENCE.  THIS IS               
NOT AN ARCTIC AIR MASS. IT WILL MORE OF THE POLAR VARIETY WITH                  
SEASONABLY COLD AIR AT BEST.  IT WILL TAKE SOME TIME TO SCOUR OUT               
ALL THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WITH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW.  THE BUFKIT                
PROFILES FROM KALB/KGFL/KPOU FROM THE GFS/NAM-WRF SHOW A FAIR AMOUNT            
OF MOISTURE LINGERING BELOW 5 KFT...SO CLOUDY/MOSTLY CLOUDY                     
CONDITIONS SHOULD DO IT HERE.                                                   
FRIDAY-SATURDAY...A FAIRLY QUIET STRETCH OF WEATHER WITH HIGH                   
PRESSURE BUILDING OVER NY AND NEW ENGLAND.  WE SHOULD SEE A FEW                 
BREAKS OF SUNSHINE BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON.  925 HPA TEMPS OVER THE                 
CAPITAL REGION WILL BE AROUND -5C...SO SEASONABLE HIGH TEMPS IN THE             
30S IN THE VALLEYS LOOK FINE.  HEIGHTS WILL CONTINUE TO RISE ALOFT              
AS A TROUGH FORMS UPSTREAM OVER THE 4 CORNERS AND EAST OF THE ROCKY             
MTN REGION.  THE 500 MB RIDGE AXIS BEGINS TO MOVE OVER THE NORTHEAST            
BY 12Z SAT.  FRIDAY NIGHT IS TRICKY IN TERMS OF TEMPS. LIGHT TO CALM            
WINDS AND CLEARING SKIES MAY ALLOW SOME RADIATIONAL COOLING.  THE               
NAM/GFS GUIDANCE WANTS TO INCREASE MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WITH THE                 
H850-700 WARM AIR ADVECTION.  WE WENT COLDER THAN THE MOS GUIDANCE              
AND LEANED TOWARD THE POSSIBILITY OF RADIATIONAL COOLING AND COLD               
TEMPS...ESPECIALLY NORTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION.  SATURDAY SHOULD BE             
MAINLY DRY...BUT WITH SOME INCREASING MID AND HIGH CLOUDS.  WE MAY              
SEE A SPRINKLE/FLURRY WEST OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY LATE IN THE               
DAY.  WE LIKED THE DRY SCENARIO DEPICTED BY THE NAM/CAN GGEM. 850 MB            
TEMPS RISING CLOSE TO 0C SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO GET ABOVE NORMAL IN              
THE U30S TO L40S IN THE VALLEYS.  THE ETAMOS GUIDANCE LOOKED WAY TOO            
COLD WITH THE SFC HIGH SOUTH OF PRINCE EDWARD ISLAND SAT MORNING.               
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...                                
A STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS FA LATE                   
SATURDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF NEXT SHORT WAVE WHICH IS EXPECTED TO DEEPEN             
RAPIDLY AS IT LIFTS NORTHEAST THROUGH UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION                  
SUNDAY AND DRAGS A COLD FRONT THROUGH OUR REGION SUNDAY EVENING. AT             
THIS POINT IT LOOKS AS THOUGH TEMPS WILL BE STEADY OR SLOWLY RISING             
ON SATURDAY NIGHT WHICH WILL LIKELY RESULT IN SOME MIXED PCPN MAINLY            
IN THE FORM OF FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET SATURDAY NIGHT BASED ON                  
PARTIAL THICKNESS VALUES WITH A TRANSITION TO RAIN ACROSS THE ENTIRE            
FA BY SUNDAY MORNING. THE PCPN SATURDAY NIGHT LOOKS TO BE FAIRLY                
LIGHT WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST A HALF INCH TO AN INCH OF QPF             
ON SUNDAY WHICH WILL RESULT IN SOME HYDRO CONCERNS...SEE HYDROLOGY              
DISCUSSION. 00Z MREF PLUME DIAGRAM WOULD GIVE KALB 0.2 TO 2.0 INCHES            
WITH VERY LITTLE CLUSTERING RESULTING IN A LARGE SPREAD AMONGST                 
ENSEMBLE MEMBERS. QUITE A FEW ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ALSO INDICATE A BRIEF            
PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN ON SATURDAY NIGHT BEFORE A QUICK CHANGEOVER             
TO RAIN AND MOSTLY RAIN UNTIL PCPN TAPERS OFF AS A LIGHT SNOW                   
ACCUMULATION SUNDAY NIGHT. 00Z MREFS ALSO HAS THE LOW PRESSURE                  
CENTER DEEPEN RAPIDLY AS IT TRACKS NORTH OF UPPER GREAT LAKES INTO              
CANADA ENDING UP 2-3 SD BELOW NORMAL AT 06Z MON WHILE H8 V COMPONENT            
WINDS NOW 3-4 SD ABOVE NORMAL IMPLYING STRONG SOUTHERLY COMPONENT AT            
18Z SUNDAY  THIS EVENT WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY FOR BOTH               
WIND CONCERNS AND HYDRO CONCERNS. AREAS PRONE TO STRONG SOUTHERLY               
WINDS SUCH AS TACONICS AND SOUTHERN VERMONT AND NORTHERN BERKSHIRES             
WOULD BE MOST AT RISK OF STRONGEST GUSTS WHICH COULD EASILY TOP 50              
MPH IN SOME OF THE MOST PRONE LOCATIONS SUNDAY. IN WAKE OF FRONT                
SUNDAY NIGHT WINDS EXPECTED TO SHIFT TO THE WEST WITH GUSTS STILL               
STRONG ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN OF ADIRONDACKS. GFS 0-30 MB AGL WINDS              
INDICATE POTENTIAL FOR 50+ KNOT GUSTS FROM THE SOUTH SUNDAY AND FROM            
THE WEST SUNDAY NIGHT. THE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE AMPLIFIED AS                
PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS ACROSS FA BETWEEN DEPARTING 1035 MB HIGH             
PRESSURE OFF NEW ENGLAND COAST AND LOW PRESSURE MOVING FROM UPPER               
GREAT LAKES INTO SOUTHERN CANADA AND DEEPENING TO BELOW 990 MB. THIS            
STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT IS ALSO SUPPORTED BY ECMWF AND GEM GLOBAL              
WITH SOME DIFFERENCES IN EXACT LOCATION OF MAIN FEATURES. QPF                   
AMOUNTS OF AT LEAST 0.50 TO 1 INCH EXPECTED AND HYDRO CONCERNS ARE              
ADDRESSED IN HYDROLOGIC DISCUSSION. EVEN THOUGH THIS SYSTEM IS STILL            
3-4 DAYS OUT WILL INCLUDE MENTION OF POTENTIAL FOR FREEZING                     
RAIN...HIGH WINDS AND POSSIBLE FLOODING IN THE HWO.                             
LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY EXPECT SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW ACROSS THE            
WESTERN ADIRONDACKS WHICH IS LIKELY TO BE ENHANCED BY A STRONG VORT             
AXIS ACROSS THIS REGION ON MONDAY.                                              
DRY WEATHER IS THEN EXPECTED TO RETURN ON CHRISTMAS EVE AND                     
CHRISTMAS DAY. ALTHOUGH A COASTAL SYSTEM LOOKS TO PASS FAR ENOUGH               
SOUTHEAST OF THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST ON TUESDAY NIGHT TO                 
SPARE FA SNOW...BUT DUE TO IT BEING A CLOSE CALL BASED ON THE ECMWF             
AND GFS WILL LEAVE SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS IN FORECAST FOR NOW.            
BOTH MODELS INDICATE THAT A STRENGTHENING RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE                
ACROSS FA IS EXPECTED TO DEFLECT COASTAL LOW OUT TO SEA. THIS WILL              
NEED TO BE MONITORED FOR FURTHER MODEL RUN CONTINUITY AS THIS IS                
MUCH FARTHER SOUTH AND EAST THAN TRACK WAS INDICATED YESTERDAY. IF              
THIS SYSTEM MISSES OUR FA THEN DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH                
WEDNESDAY WITH NEXT SHORT WAVE NOT EXPECTED BEFORE THURSDAY.                    
OVERALL LONG TERM BEYOND MONDAY LOOKS COLD AND DRY AT THIS POINT IN             
TIME.                                                                           
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...                                      
VERY MOIST LOW LEVELS WITH TEMPS HOVERING AROUND THE FREEZING MARK              
ALONG WITH LITTLE AIR CIRCULATION AND STILL SOME LIGHT SNOW FALLING             
WILL KEEP LIFR/IFR CONDITIONS IN PLACE FOR MOST IF NOT ALL OF THE               
MORNING...ALTHOUGH THE SNOW WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH IN COVERAGE AND             
INTENSITY DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. THE BIG QUESTION                     
CONTINUES TO BE HOW QUICKLY CIGS AND VSBYS WILL RISE LATER THIS                 
MORNING OR EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. BASED ON BUFKIT MODEL SOUNDINGS                
CLOUD AND INVERSION HEIGHTS REMAIN IN IFR RANGE THROUGH AT LEAST 15Z            
AT KGFL AND KPOU...BUT KALB MAY HAVE MOST DIFFICULTY BREAKING OUT OF            
LIFR/IFR RANGE AS SNOW SHOWER AND FLURRY ACTIVITY MAY END LAST IN               
CAPITAL DISTRICT. THERE IS ALSO SOME UNCERTAINTY HEADING INTO THIS              
EVENING...BUT WITH LOW LEVELS STILL MOIST AND LIGHT WINDS EXPECT AT             
LEAST A RETURN TO MVFR CONDITIONS AFTER 00Z. WINDS GENERALLY LIGHT              
AND VARIABLE THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY.                                                
OUTLOOK...                                                                      
FRI-SAT...VFR.                                                                  
SUN...IFR MIXED PCPN...STRONG S-SE WINDS.                                       
MON...VFR...EXCEPT MVFR/IFR IN LAKE EFFECT -SHSN DOWNWIND OF LK ONT.            
&&                                                                              
.HYDROLOGY...                                                                   
NO HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH SATURDAY. WE HAVE                     
ANNOTATED BOTH THE RVDALY TEXT PRODUCT AND THE AHPS PAGES WHERE ICE             
IS CAUSING UNREPRESENTATIVE RIVER STAGE AND FLOW READINGS. SOME                 
PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW EXPECTED TODAY. A STRONGER STORM SYSTEM MAY               
IMPACT THE REGION ON SUNDAY. THE STORM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTH OF             
THE GREAT LAKES AND DRAG A COLD FRONT ACROSS OUR REGION LATE SUNDAY.            
AHEAD OF THE FRONT...TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO RISE ABOVE                    
FREEZING WITH THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES OVER ULSTER...DUTCHESS AND               
LITCHFIELD COUNTIES. SOME RUNOFF IS EXPECTED ON SUNDAY SOUTH OF I-90            
FROM A COMBINATION OF SNOW MELT AND RAINFALL. 00Z MREFS SHOW A 75               
PERCENT CHANCE OF A HALF INCH OF RAIN...AND 30 TO 50 PERCENT CHANCE             
OF OVER ONE INCH OF RAIN. AT THIS TIME RIVER FLOODING IS NOT                    
EXPECTED BUT THERE IS A THREAT THAT FLOODING COULD DEVELOP...                   
ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTHERN COUNTIES...IF TEMPERATURES TURN OUT WARMER             
AND RAINFALL IS HEAVIER. LOCALIZED FLOODING IS POSSIBLE IN SOUTHERN             
URBAN AREAS WHERE STORM DRAINS ARE BLOCKED BY SNOW.                             
&&                                                                              
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
CT...NONE.                                                                      
NY...NONE.                                                                      
MA...NONE.                                                                      
VT...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SYNOPSIS...WASULA                                                               
NEAR TERM...WASULA                                                              
SHORT TERM...WASULA                                                             
LONG TERM...11                                                                  
AVIATION...11                                                                   
HYDROLOGY...11                                                                  
</pre> ct                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY                                              
1257 AM EST THU DEC 20 2007                                                     
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
A CLIPPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DISSIPATE IN IN THE EASTERN GREAT            
LAKES REGION THIS EVENING...WITH A SECONDARY LOW FORMING OFF CAPE               
COD OVERNIGHT. THESE LOWS WILL BRING PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW TO THE               
REGION INTO THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK IN THURSDAY                 
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AND SLIDE OFFSHORE SATURDAY. SATURDAY NIGHT AND               
SUNDAY A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE REGION...WARMER AIR WILL              
STREAM INTO THE REGION AHEAD OF THE FRONT...RESULTING IN THE                    
THREAT OF MIXED PRECIPITATION CHANGING TO RAIN SUNDAY. HIGH                     
PRESSURE WILL BUILD FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO QUEBEC MONDAY AND                 
TUESDAY.                                                                        
&&                                                                              
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...                                         
SHORT WAVE WAS PROGRESSING ACROSS UPSTATE NEW YORK WITH A WIDESPREAD            
AREA OF LIGHT SNOW IMPACTING MOST OF THE CWA (MAINLY THE EASTERN                
HALF).  IT SEEMS A LOCAL HUDSON VALLEY CONVERGENCE ZONE HAS EVOLVED             
COMBINING WITH FAVORABLE UPSLOPE CONDITIONS FOR A BAND OF                       
LIGHT-MODERATE SNOW.  18Z WRF/NAM AND LATEST RUC13 ALSO SHOW SOME               
HINTS IN THE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE FIELDS ALONG WITH INCREASING                 
DEFORMATION/TROWAL AXIS ACROSS WESTERN NEW ENGLAND INTO PORTIONS OF             
LAKE GEORGE AND SARATOGA REGION.  THESE REGIONS WILL LIKELY REMAIN              
WITHIN A FAVORABLE SNOWFALL REGION WHILE AREAS TO THE WEST...WE ARE             
LOSING ICE NUCLEI AS MID AND HIGHER LEVEL DRIER AIR ADVECTS INTO THE            
REGION.  WILL NEED TO MONITOR FZDZ BUT NOTHING REPORTED THUS FAR                
UPSTREAM.  TEMPERATURES ARE NOW AT OR BELOW THE FREEZING MARK WHICH             
SHOULD SIGNIFY SOME ACCUMULATIONS.  MADE SOME MODIFICATIONS TO THE              
FORECAST/GRIDS BASED ON THOSE AFOREMENTIONED TRENDS AND CURRENT                 
GUIDANCE.                                                                       
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 AM FRIDAY/...                          
BY 12Z/THURSDAY COASTAL LOW IS THE DOMINATE LOW WITH BAGGINESS IN               
THE PRESSURE FIELDS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. IN ADDITION...A                   
SHORT WAVE WILL ROTATE THROUGH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE                  
REGION THURSDAY. LIGHT SNOW SHOULD LINGER OVER SOUTHERN VERMONT                 
WITH SOME SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA.                    
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL DECREASE AS THE DAY WEARS ON DAY.                
HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH OVER EASTERN CANADA WILL BUILD SOUTH                 
THURSDAY NIGHT.                                                                 
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...                                         
FIRST PART OF PERIOD FRIDAY AND SATURDAY FAIRLY QUIET AS SFC HIGH               
PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS GREAT LAKES INTO QUEBEC. SATURDAY NIGHT IT               
SLIDES OFF SHORE AS 500HPA RIDGE BUILDS ALONG EASTERN SEABOARD.                 
CDFNT PUSHES THROUGH GRTLKS SAT NIGHT AND ACROSS NY AND NEW ENG                 
SUNDAY. MAJOR DYNAMICS WITH SYSTEM ARE WELL NORTH OF REGION IN                  
QUEBEC WITH MAIN IMPACT BEING THE CDFNT. WITH PERIOD OF SOUTHERLY               
WINDS TEMPS WILL HOLD OR RISE SAT NIGHT...BUT WILL START                        
SUFFICIENTLY COLD TO RESULT IN MIXED PCPN TYPES INTO SUN MRNG.                  
PCPN WILL BE SPOTTY IN THE MOISTURE INFLOW AND BULK OF IT WILL BE               
ASSOCIATED WITH CFP. TEMPS WILL RISE ENOUGH TO TURN THE MIX TO                  
RAIN IN MOST OF FCA PRIOR TO CFP. IN GENERAL ENSEMBLES CENTERED                 
AROUND 0.75 INCH OF QPF WITH THIS EVENT..SOME PORTION OF WHICH                  
WILL BE FROZEN. TREND HAS BEEN TWRD LOWER QPF. THIS IS COVERED IN               
MORE DETAIL IN HYDRO SECTION. THIS IS A SYSTEM THAT THE MAIN LOW                
IS WELL TO THE NORTH...ESSENTIALLY A CLIPPER...HAS LIMITED PERIOD               
OF MOISTURE INFLOW FROM THE ATLC. CDFNT SWEEPS QUICKLY OFFSHORE                 
SUNDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST FROM THE                              
GRTLKS...FOLLOWED BY A SECONDARY ARCTIC FRONT ON MONDAY. MONDAY                 
AND TUESDAY WILL BE MAINLY DRY EXCEPT FOR -SHSN ASSOCIATED WITH                 
SECONDARY FRONT AND FLOW INTERACTIONS WITH TRRN. TUESDAY INTO                   
WEDNESDAY THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF DIVERGENCE BETWEEN THE                        
GFSMOS...EUROPEAN AND HPC. WITH THE GFS TAKING A LARGE LOW                      
THROUGH THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AND THEN A SECONDARY FORMING OVER                  
DELMARVA AS EARLY AS CHRISTMAS DAY. THE OTHERS DEVELOP THIS                     
SYSTEM ALONG THE SE US COAST...AND TAKE IT UP THE SEABOARD EITHER               
AS SOME SORT OF SNOW EVENT...OR TOO FAR EAST TO AMOUNT TO                       
ANYTHING. FOR NOW CHC OF SNOW WILL SUFFICE...WE ARE TALKING ABOUT               
DAYS 7/8.                                                                       
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...                                      
VERY MOIST LOW LEVELS WITH TEMPS HOVERING AROUND THE FREEZING MARK              
ALONG WITH LITTLE AIR CIRCULATION AND STILL SOME LIGHT SNOW FALLING             
WILL KEEP LIFR/IFR CONDITIONS IN PLACE FOR MOST IF NOT ALL OF THE               
REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. THE BIG QUESTION AT THIS POINT               
WILL BE HOW QUICKLY CIGS AND VSBYS WILL RISE AFTER SUNRISE AND                  
EXPECT THAT AT KGFL IT MAY TAKE UNTIL AFTERNOON AS LITTLE WIND FLOW             
EXPECTED. KALB AND KPOU HAVE A BETTER CHANCE TO MIX AND ALSO EXPECT             
LESS IN THE WAY OF SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY AS CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM PULLS            
AWAY FROM FA. EVEN AT KALB AND KPOU IT MAY TAKE MUCH OF THE MORNING             
BEFORE MVFR CONDITIONS GIVE WAY TO VFR. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY               
HEADING INTO THIS EVENING...BUT WITH LOW LEVELS STILL MOIST AND                 
LIGHT WINDS EXPECT AT LEAST A RETURN TO MVFR CONDITIONS AFTER 00Z.              
WINDS GENERALLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY...EXCEPT                  
NORTHWEST AT 5-8 KTS AT KALB BETWEEN 12Z AND 00Z.                               
OUTLOOK...                                                                      
FRI-SAT...VFR.                                                                  
SUN...IFR MIXED PCPN...STRONG S-SE WINDS.                                       
MON...VFR...EXCEPT MVFR/IFR IN LAKE EFFECT -SHSN DOWNWIND OF LK ONT.            
&&                                                                              
.HYDROLOGY...                                                                   
NO HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH SATURDAY. WE HAVE                     
ANNOTATED BOTH THE RVDALY TEXT PRODUCT AND THE AHPS PAGES WHERE ICE             
IS CAUSING UNREPRESENTATIVE RIVER STAGE AND FLOW READINGS. SOME                 
PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW EXPECTED TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. A STRONGER                 
STORM SYSTEM MAY IMPACT THE REGION ON SUNDAY. THE STORM IS EXPECTED             
TO MOVE NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES AND DRAG A COLD FRONT ACROSS OUR               
REGION LATE SUNDAY. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED              
TO RISE ABOVE FREEZING WITH THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES OVER                       
ULSTER...DUTCHESS AND LITCHFIELD COUNTIES. SOME RUNOFF IS EXPECTED              
ON SUNDAY SOUTH OF I-90 FROM A COMBINATION OF MELT AND RAINFALL.                
MODEL ENSEMBLES SHOW A 75 PERCENT CHANCE OF A HALF INCH OF                      
RAIN...AND LESS THAN 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF OVER ONE INCH OF RAIN. AT             
THIS TIME RIVER FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED BUT THERE IS A THREAT THAT             
FLOODING COULD DEVELOP...ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTHERN COUNTIES...IF                 
TEMPERATURES TURN OUT WARMER AND RAINFALL IS HEAVIER. LOCALIZED                 
FLOODING IS POSSIBLE IN SOUTHERN URBAN AREAS WHERE STORM DRAINS ARE             
BLOCKED BY SNOW.                                                                
&&                                                                              
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
CT...NONE.                                                                      
NY...NONE.                                                                      
MA...NONE.                                                                      
VT...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
AVIATION...11                                                                   
</pre> ct                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC                                          
859 AM EST FRI DEC 21 2007                                                      
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
A STRONG UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE WHICH WILL PASS THROUGH THE                    
REGION AND MOVE OFF THE COAST TODAY. THIS WILL ENHANCE A WEDGE                  
PATTERN OVER THE CAROLINAS THAT SHOULD HOLD UNTIL BREAKING DOWN ON              
SUN AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE W. THE FRONT WILL MOVE OFF              
THE COAST BY EARLY MON...BUT UNSETTLED WEATHER COULD RETURN BY                  
CHRISTMAS DAY AS ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS POSSIBLE.                   
&&                                                                              
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...                                         
06Z GFS/RUC HAVE CONVERGED ON A SIMILAR SOLUTION WHICH PUTS                     
A SFC LOW NEAR THE W WALL OF THE GULF STREAM SE OF CHARLESTON THIS              
AFTN. ALMOST A 12 MB PRES GRAD FORECAST INDICATES A WINDY SETUP.                
NAM SHOWS 60 KT H925 WINDS THIS AFTN...LIKELY OVERDONE BUT WORRISOME.           
IMPRESSIVE DEFORMATION AXIS ALONG AND JUST W OF I-95 HAS FUELED A               
ZONE OF 3-6 INCH RNFL AMOUNTS FROM HARDEEVILLE AND PORT WENTWORTH               
SW TO LONG AND TATTNALL COUNTIES. A FLOOD ADVISORY FOR MINOR                    
FLOODING IS IN EFFECT THROUGH MID MORNING FOR QUITE A FEW OF OUR                
COUNTIES. ZONES HAVE BEEN UPDATED THIS MORNING TO REFLECT HEAVY                 
RAIN AND INCREASE QPF. RADAR AND GROUND OBSERVATION RECENTLY                    
INDICATED OVER 5 INCHES OF RAIN HAS ALREADY FALLEN AT THE SAVANNAH              
AIRPORT. THIS RNFL MAX EXTENDS NWD TO AROUND HARDEEVILLE.                       
RAIN ALONG THE NW SIDE OF THE LOW LEVEL WARM FRONT MAY BE A BIT                 
SLOWER TO PULL OUT OF THE ERN PART OF THE FA TODAY.                             
THE EJECTING SFC LOW OFF THE GEORGIA COAST THIS MORNING SHOULD                  
ENHANCE A CLASSIC WEDGE SETUP TODAY. WE INDICATED HIGH TEMPS IN OUR             
NW TIER WILL OCCUR DURING THIS MORNING...FALLING AFTERNOON. VERY                
LITTLE CHANGE TO OVERALL TEMPERATURE SCHEME OVERALL. WINDS SHOULD               
INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON. WILL NEED TO WATCH FOR WIND ADVISORY                   
CRITERIA POSSIBILITIES ALONG THE IMMEDIATE CHARLESTON COUNTY COAST              
AT SOME POINT LATER TODAY.                                                      
THE COMBINATION OF STRONG PINCHING...DEEPENING LOW OVER THE ATLC                
AND RAPID PRES RISES IN ITS WAKE WILL RESULT IN STRONG AND GUSTY                
WINDS OVER THE COASTAL COUNTIES TODAY. HIGHEST WINDS WILL BE NEAR               
THE COAST...AND MOST NOTABLY ACROSS CHARLESTON COUNTY. WE HAVE                  
THUS INITIATED A HIGH WIND ADVISORY.                                            
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...                        
HEAVIER PRECIP SHOULD HAVE TAPERED OFF BY TONIGHT EXCEPT FOR A FEW              
CONVECTIVE SHOWERS POSSIBLE OVER FAR NE PORTIONS. HOWEVER...                    
CONTINUED WEDGE PATTERN WITH WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT COULD RESULT IN               
SOME DRIZZLE THROUGH THE NIGHT IN MANY AREAS. EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER             
AND A RATHER CONTIGUOUS AIRMASS IN PLACE SHOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES               
FAIRLY STEADY THROUGH THE NIGHT OR SLIGHTLY FALLING. GUIDANCE TEMPS             
FOR SAT SEEM MUCH TOO HIGH OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA. MID              
TO UPPER 60S IS PRETTY MUCH OUT OF THE QUESTION ASSUMING THE WEDGE              
OF HIGH PRES REMAINS FIRMLY PLANTED ACROSS THE EASTERN SEABOARD. WE             
SHOULD HAVE A LARGE TEMP GRADIENT ACROSS THE AREA WITH UPPER 60S FAR            
S TO UPPER 50S N. DECREASED POPS TO SLIGHT CHANCE OVER SE SC WHERE              
BEST CHANCE OF SOME ISENTROPIC ALONG THE COASTAL TROUGH WILL EXIST.             
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...                                 
WHILE MODEL SOLUTIONS REMAIN SPLIT FOR MOST OF THE EXTENDED...                  
CONFIDENCE THAT THE GUIDANCE IS RUNNING TOO WARM IS QUITE HIGH. MUCH            
OF THE LONG-TERM PERIOD WILL BE DOMINATED BY A WEDGE PATTERN WITH               
HIGH PRES OVER THE NE STATES. AS USUAL WITH PERSISTENT WEDGE                    
PATTERNS IN THIS PART OF THE COUNTRY...THE GFS MOS TEMPS ARE ABOUT              
TEN DEGREES TOO WARM ON AVERAGE. THIS STILL SEEMS TO BE THE CASE                
WITH THE 00Z RUN. INHERITED GRIDS SEEM QUITE REASONABLE AND ARE WELL            
COLLABORATED ON THE WHOLE...THUS DID NOT MAKE SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO            
THESE PERIODS.                                                                  
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION /14Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...                                       
SFC LOW AT 11Z WAS CLOSE TO MOVING OFF THE GEORGIA COAST S OF KSAV              
AND WINDS WERE ALREADY BACKING IN NRN CHATHAM COUNTY INDICATING THE             
LOW IS SLIPPING OF THE SSE. HEAVY RNFL IS PINNED DOWN AROUND THE                
SAVANNAH AIRPORT AND VSBYS AND CIGS SHOULD CONTINUE TO BOUNCE WITH              
THE PRECIP LOADING. STRONG LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE IS INCREASING                  
FURTHER UP THE COAST AND HEAVY RAINS MAY ALSO BECOME PINNED ALONG               
THE CHARLESTON COUNTY LATER THIS MORNING. IN EITHER CASE...IFR/MVFR             
CONDITIONS SHOULD BECOME LIFR BY THIS AFTERNOON AS THE WEDGE                    
INVERSION LOWERS AND STRENGTHENS. LIFR CIGS TONIGHT...VERY LOW                  
CONFIDENCE ON VSBYS IN THE WEDGE.                                               
AT BOTH TAF SITES...N TO NE WINDS SHOULD BE GUSTY FROM THIS AFTN                
THROUGH THIS EVENING...HIGHEST AT KCHS. THIS IS DEPENDANT ON THE                
EVOLUTION OF A VERY COMPLEX SYNOPTIC REGIME.                                    
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...LIFR OR LOWER CIGS AND REDUCED VSBYS                
IN FOG SAT MORNING...LIFTING TO MVFR CIGS SAT AFTN. LOW CIGS MAY                
REDEVELOP SAT NIGHT. THERE SHOULD BE SOME IMPROVEMENT BY SUNDAY                 
NIGHT AND MONDAY...BUT ANOTHER ROUND OF LOW CIGS IS POSSIBLE                    
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT.                                                      
&&                                                                              
.MARINE...                                                                      
KJAX SOUNDING SHOWS 35-40 KT BELOW 2K FT THIS MORNING AND STRONG                
PINCHING IS DEVELOPING AND WILL STRENGTHEN FURTHER AS LOW DEEPENS               
AS IT REACHES THE GULF STREAM. WITH STRONG PRES RISES IN WAKE OF                
THE LOW WILL GO AHEAD AND RAISE A GALE WARNING FOR AMZ352-354-374.              
THUS ALL WATERS ARE NOW UNDER A GALE WARNING. HAVE RAISED                       
SEAS/WAVES ACCORDINGLY. HAVE ALSO ADDED TSTMS TO THE SC WATERS AND              
LOWERED COVERAGE OVER PRECIP ON THE SE GA WATERS.                               
STRONG GRAD PINCHING IS LIKELY TODAY THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT GIVEN                
THE DYNAMICS AND THERMAL GRADIENT/DIABATIC EFFECT. WHILE THE NAM                
MODEL SEEMS A BIT QUESTIONABLE WITH THE TRACK OF THE SFC LOW TODAY...           
THE GFS REMAINS ON TRACK...ALBEIT WEAK WITH THE WIND SPEEDS GIVEN               
THE TILTING WEDGE SCENARIO. WE HAVE UPGRADED GALE WATCH TO A WARNING            
OFF THE CHARLESTON COUNTY COAST AND INCLUDED THE HARBOR FOR TODAY               
INTO TONIGHT. N WINDS SHOULD TRAP-DOOR DOWN THE BACKSIDE OF THE                 
EJECTING LOW THIS AFTN...SPEEDS AND SEAS INCREASING GEORGIA LEGS.               
SCA ALL WATERS OUTSIDE OF THE GALE WARNINGS. SEAS COULD BUILD AS                
HIGH AS 9-10 FT 15-30 NM OFF THE NRN CHARLESTON COUNTY BY 00Z/22.               
WINDS SHOULD BE ON THE DECREASE TONIGHT AND SAT OVER THE WATERS BUT             
SEAS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED THROUGH TUE. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES                   
CONTINUE THROUGH SAT NIGHT IN THE NEARSHORE WATERS AND THROUGH MON              
EVENING OVER THE OFFSHORE.                                                      
LAKE WINDS...RECENT OBSERVATION FROM EADYTOWN AND TIGHTENING OF THE             
PRES GRAD HAS PROMPTED AN ISSUANCE OF A LAKE WIND ADVISORY FOR                  
LAKE MOULTRIE. WE RAN THE ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT AS THE GRAD                  
REMAINS QUITE STRONG.                                                           
&&                                                                              
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...                                                      
HIGH TIDE AROUND 5-6 AM THIS MORNING FELL BELOW COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY          
CRITERIA BUT RAIN LIKELY EXACERBATED SOME MINOR FLOODING.                       
HIGH ASTRONOMICAL TIDES EXPECTED SAT THROUGH TUE MORNINGS. THE                  
QUESTION IS WHEN WE EXPECT METEOROLOGICAL FACTORS TO RESULT IN                  
ENOUGH POSITIVE ANOMALY TO PUSH TIDES ABOVE CRITICAL THRESHOLDS FOR             
SHALLOW COASTAL FLOODING. SAT MORNING HOLDS A CONSIDERABLE CHANCE               
ALONG THE SC COAST GIVEN CONTINUED NE WINDS AND SOME SWELL WAVE. SUN            
AND MON WILL BE CLOSE BUT WINDS WILL EITHER BE DUE S OR DUE                     
N...NEITHER OF WHICH NORMALLY RESULTS IN MUCH OF A RESIDUAL. TUE                
MORNING WE COULD AGAIN BE PUSHING 7 FT AT CHS IF NE FLOW SETS UP AS             
FORECAST.                                                                       
&&                                                                              
.EQUIPMENT...                                                                   
THERE WAS NO BE NO 12Z UPPER AIR FLIGHT THIS MORNING DUE TO HEAVY               
PCPN AND GROUND EQUIPMENT ISSUES.                                               
&&                                                                              
.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
GA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR GAZ119.                    
SC...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST SATURDAY FOR SCZ045.                     
     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR SCZ048>051.                
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 11 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR AMZ352-354.              
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 5 AM EST SATURDAY FOR AMZ330-350-374.                   
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
33/RVT/JRL                                                                      
</pre> ga                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC                                          
1256 AM EST FRI DEC 21 2007                                                     
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
SURFACE HIGH PRES WILL GIVE WAY TO AN APPROACHING UPPER-LEVEL                   
DISTURBANCE WHICH WILL PASS THROUGH THE REGION AND MOVE OFF THE                 
COAST EARLY FRI. THIS WILL ENHANCE A WEDGE PATTERN OVER THE                     
CAROLINAS THAT SHOULD BREAK DOWN ON SUN AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES              
FROM THE W. THE FRONT WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST EARLY MON...BUT                   
UNSETTLED WEATHER COULD RETURN BY CHRISTMAS DAY AS ANOTHER UPPER-               
LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS POSSIBLE.                                                  
&&                                                                              
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...                                         
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE COLD AIR DAMMING IS BEGINNING TO                  
TAKE SHAPE ACROSS INLAND AREAS WHILE COASTAL FRONTOGENESIS IS                   
ONGOING OFFSHORE. THE INLAND WEDGE AND ASSOCIATED COASTAL FRONT                 
WILL STRENGTHEN OVERNIGHT AS THERMAL GRADIENTS INTENSIFY DUE TO                 
DIABATIC COOLING AND INCREASING BAROCLINICITY OFFSHORE NEAR THE                 
WRN WALL OF THE GULF STREAM. OPTED TO RAISE LOW TEMPS A DEG OR TWO              
MOST AREAS BASED ON THE LATEST RUC-13 WET-BULB PROGNOSTICATIONS                 
BUT STILL EXPECT TEMPS TO BOTTOM OUT IN THE UPR 40S ACROSS WELL                 
INLAND WITH UPR 50S ALONG THE BEACHES.                                          
RAIN WILL BE LCLLY HEAVY AT TIMES THROUGH MID MORNING AS LOW-LVL                
CONVG ALONG THE WEDGE FRONT INCRS AND PWATS CLIMB ABOVE 1.25                    
INCHES. ALTHOUGH WDSPRD DEEP CONVECTION WILL BE LACKING...                      
BUILDING ASTRONOMICAL TIDES MAY PEAK DURING A PERIOD OF MODERATE                
TO HEAVY RAINS ACROSS THE COASTAL COUNTIES EARLY FRI MRNG WHICH                 
RAISES THE CONCERN FOR POSSIBLE FRESH WATER FLOODING PROBLEMS...                
ESPECIALLY IN THE DOWNTOWN CHARLESTON AREA. WILL DEFER THE                      
DECISION FOR A FLOOD WATCH TO THE MIDNGT SHIFT AND MAINTAIN A                   
MENTION OF POSSIBLE FLOODING PROBLEMS IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER                  
OUTLOOK.                                                                        
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...                        
THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL SHIFT OFF THE GA/SC COASTLINE TODAY                
WITH RAIN CHANCES SUBSEQUENTLY DECREASING THROUGH THE DAY FROM SW               
TO NE. THE COASTAL LOW OFFSHORE WILL ACT TO AMPLIFY THE PERSISTENT              
INLAND SURFACE WEDGE. THICK CLOUD COVER AND RESIDUAL DRIZZLE                    
DIABATICALLY ENHANCING THE COLD AIR DAMMING WILL CREATE CHILLY                  
CONDITIONS FOR THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN COUNTIES. EXPECT HIGHS TO               
BE SUPPRESSED IN THE LOWER 50S NW ZONES...INCREASING TO THE LOWER               
TO MID 60S TOWARD THE S. A PINCHED GRADIENT ALONG THE CHARLESTON                
COUNTY COAST WILL LIKELY SUPPORT BREEZY CONDITIONS THERE FOR MUCH               
OF THE DAY.                                                                     
LAKE WINDS...A LAKE WIND ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR LAKE MOULTRIE               
ON FRIDAY...BUT MUCH WILL DEPEND ON WHERE EXACTLY THE SFC LOW                   
DVLPS. WILL HOLD THE FCST JUST UNDER ADVISORY CRITERIA FOR NOW..BUT             
HEADLINE THAT AN ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED.                                        
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...                                 
SOLID WEDGE WILL BE IN PLACE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY WITH                    
NORTHEAST WINDS...COOL TEMPS...NOT A LOT OF SUN...AND EVEN A FEW                
LIGHT SHOWERS/DRIZZLE ...MAINLY IN THE NORTHEASTERN HALF OF THE                 
CWA. WENT BELOW GUIDANCE FOR TEMPS ON SATURDAY.                                 
WINDS START TO VEER SATURDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONT WITH A               
WARMER DAY SUNDAY ON SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS. STILL...THE WEDGE            
MAY TRY TO HOLD ON FAR NORTH...BUT HAVE NOT GONE WITH THAT SOLUTION.            
AGAIN...THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE OF SHOWERS AHEAD OF THE FRONT.                  
COLD FRONT GOES THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT CAUSING THE WINDS TO COME                  
AROUND TO THE NORTHWEST. THIS WILL INTRODUCE SOME DRYING WITH A                 
BETTER CHANCE FOR SUNSHINE MONDAY. TEMPS WILL BE SEASONABLE.                    
FORECAST BECOMES VERY UNCERTAIN FOR THE REMAINDER OF CHRISTMAS WEEK             
AS MODELS DIFFER SIGNIFICANTLY ON THE EVOLUTION OF A DEVELOP LOW.               
ONE SET OF SOLUTIONS DEVELOPS THE LOW OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST AND               
SETS UP FOR A COOL CHRISTMAS WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN. ANOTHER SET                 
DEVELOPS THE SYSTEM QUITE A BIT FURTHER WEST AND KEEPS US DRY UNTIL             
WEDNESDAY. FOR NOW...I WENT WITH CONTINUITY WHICH IS MORE                       
PESSIMISTIC FOR CHRISTMAS DAY...BUT I DO NOT HAVE MUCH CONFIDENCE               
DUE TO THE DIVERGENCE OF MODEL SOLUTIONS.                                       
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...                                       
RNFL OCCURRING AT KSAV AT 06Z SHOULD CUT OFF FAIRLY QUICKLY BETWEEN             
12Z AND 15Z...BUT CIGS LIKELY TO BE IN THE LIFR/IFR RANGE PRIOR TO              
SUNRISE SHOULD ONLY LIFT TO MVFR RANGES LATE MORNING INTO EARLY                 
AFTN BEFORE CRATERING BACK TO LIFR/IFR CONDITIONS AGAIN LATER TODAY             
OR EARLY THIS EVENING. OCNLY HEAVY RNFL PRIOR TO 12Z WILL LIKELY                
LOWER VSBY AT SAVANNAH AOB 1 NM AT TIMES.                                       
AT KCHS...RAIN WAS JUST BEGINNING AT 06Z AND IT SHOULD PEAK BETWEEN             
10Z AND 16Z WITH SOME LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE LINGERING BEHIND THE                
MAIN SURGE OF RAINS WITH THE SHORTWAVE PASSAGE. BY LATE THIS AFTN...            
CIGS SHOULD BE IFR OR LESS WITH MVFR VSBYS. CIGS WILL PROBABLY BE               
LIFR OR LOWER AFTER SUNSET TONIGHT. VSBYS COULD BE REDUCED IN                   
DRIZZLE AND FOG AS WELL.                                                        
AT BOTH TAF SITES...N TO NE WINDS COULD BE GUSTY FROM THIS AFTN                 
THROUGH THIS EVENING...HIGHEST AT KCHS. THIS IS DEPENDANT ON THE                
EVOLUTION OF A VERY COMPLEX SYNOPTIC REGIME.                                    
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...LIFR OR LOWER CIGS AND REDUCED VSBYS                
IN FOG SAT MORNING...LIFTING TO MVFR CIGS FRI AFTN. LOW CIGS MAY                
REDEVELOP SAT NIGHT...ESPECIALLY AT KCHS. THERE SHOULD BE SOME                  
IMPROVEMENT BY SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...BUT ANOTHER ROUND OF LOW               
CIGS IS POSSIBLE TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT.                                     
&&                                                                              
.MARINE...                                                                      
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS SLOWLY INTENSIFYING ALONG THE SC COAST                 
THIS EVNG BTWN HIGH PRES BUILDING INLAND AND A DVLPG COASTAL FRONT              
OFFSHORE. THE GRADIENT WILL CONTINUE TO PINCH ACROSS THE SC WTRS                
OVRNGT AND INTO FRI AS LOW PRES DVLPS OFF THE SC/GA COAST AND                   
COLD AIR DAMMING STRENGTHS INLAND. A GALE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED                 
FOR THE WATERS N OF EDISTO BEACH BEGINNING AROUND SUNRISE FRI AND               
CONTINUING THROUGH FRI NGT. THE WATCH MAY BE UPGRADED TO A GALE                 
WARNING WITH THE EARLY MRNG FCST PKG. WHILE GALE FORCE WINDS ARE A              
POSSIBILITY IN THE CHARLESTON HARBOR...CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH                   
ENOUGH ATTM TO JUSTIFY A GALE WATCH THERE. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES               
LOOK GOOD ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE MARINE AREA...ALTHOUGH THE                
START TIME FOR THE CHARLESTON HARBOR NEEDS TO BE MOVE UP TO FRI                 
MRNG BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS.                                                   
WINDS AOB 10 KT ACROSS THE GA NEARSHORE WTRS NEAR THE COASTAL                   
FRONT BUT SHOULD BECOME N-NE 10-15 KT IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS                  
LOW PRES DVLPS JUST OFFSHORE. PINNING DIRECTIONS IN THE GA WATERS               
WILL BE TRICKY UNTIL THE LOW PRES AREA CONSOLIDATES. WINDS WILL GO              
SOLIDLY NE ACROSS ALL WATERS BY FRI AFTN AS LOW PRES PULLS AWAY                 
FROM THE AREA AND HIGH PRES WEDGE EXPANDS OFFSHORE. SEAS WILL                   
BUILD QUICKLY NGT AND FRI AS NE WINDS INTENSIFY.                                
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...STRONGEST WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD               
ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY THANKS TO THE WEDGE. SCA                 
CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH A GOOD PART OF THE WEEKEND...AND EVEN               
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK FOR THE OUTER GEORGIA WATERS.                              
&&                                                                              
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...                                                      
WILL WATCH FOR THE POTENTIAL OF SOME SHALLOW COASTAL FLOODING                   
AROUND HIGH TIDE FRI MORNING IF HEAVY RAINFALL OCCURS. OTHERWISE...             
ASTRONOMICALLY HIGH TIDES EARLY SATURDAY MORNING AND AGAIN EARLY                
SUNDAY MORNING SETS US UP FOR THE POSSIBILITY ON MINOR COASTAL                  
FLOODING EACH MORNING IN THE USUALLY VULNERABLE SPOTS. WIND MAY                 
STILL BE ENOUGH OFFSHORE SATURDAY MORNING TO KEEP FROM HAVING MANY              
PROBLEMS...BUT A SLIGHT SHIFT TO MORE EASTERLY WOULD CHANGE THAT.               
ULTIMATELY...RESIDENTS IN THOSE FLOOD PRONE LOCATIONS NEED TO STAY              
TUNED.                                                                          
&&                                                                              
.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
GA...NONE.                                                                      
SC...NONE.                                                                      
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 5 AM EST                
     SATURDAY FOR AMZ330.                                                       
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 5 AM EST                   
     SUNDAY FOR AMZ352.                                                         
     GALE WATCH FROM 9 AM EST THIS MORNING THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR             
     AMZ350.                                                                    
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR AMZ350.               
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 11 PM EST                  
     MONDAY FOR AMZ374.                                                         
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 5 AM EST                  
     SUNDAY FOR AMZ354.                                                         
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</pre> ga                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA                                       
603 PM EST FRI DEC 21 2007                                                      
.UPDATE/AVIATION...                                                             
1ST PD GRIDS WERE OBVIOUSLY CORRUPT AND RECREATED BUT DRIVING GIST              
OF EARLY UPDATE IS TO GET NEEDED DENSE FOG ADVISORY OUT ASAP. 22Z               
SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS SIG LL MSTR SITTING JUST SOUTH ACRS CNTRL IN/SW              
OH AND SLOWLY ADVTG NWD AND WILL LEAD TO SIGNIFICANT ADVECTIVE DENSE            
FOG OVERTOP EXISTING SNOWPACK AND COLD GROUND. HAVE CONSIDERABLE                
DOUBTS AS TO THE VALIDITY OF WMFNT MIXING THROUGH CWA BY MORNING AND            
IMPLIED SLOWLY RISING TEMPS ESP IN LIGHT OF RUC HOLDING LARGE SCALE             
PRES FALLS INADV OF SRN PLAINS CYCLONE WELL WEST OVERNIGHT BUT WILL             
LEAVE THAT FOR LIKELY ADDNL UPDATE LTR THIS EVENING W/BTR SHOT OF               
SHOWER DVLPMNT XPCD WRN HALF IN ASSOCN/W INCREASING LARGE SCALE                 
ISENTROPIC ASCENT.                                                              
XPC WIDESPREAD LIFR CONDS DVLPG QUICKLY THIS EVENING AND CONTINUING             
THROUGH MUCH OF SATURDAY. ASSUMING WARM SECTOR DEEPENS                          
SUFFICIENTLY...SHLD SEE AN IMPROVEMENT TO IFR BY AFTN.                          
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT AND SATURDAY)...                                           
FOCUS TONIGHT WILL BE ON ADVANCING AREA OF INCREASED DEWPOINTS AND              
ANTICIPATED LOWER VISIBILITIES IN FOG. LOCATIONS SEEING DEWPTS IN               
THE 34 DEGREE OR HIGHER RANGE TO THE SOUTH AND WEST ARE SEEING THE              
DENSER FOG HOLDING ON. RUC40/NAM12 ALL SHOWING SLOWER ARRIVAL OF                
HIGHER DEWPOINTS...WITH BEST ADVECTION NOT OCCURRING TILL CLOSER                
TO 6Z IN THE SW AND SPREADING NORTH OVERNIGHT. AS A RESULT WILL                 
MAKE FURTHER ADJUSTMENTS AND SLOW DOWN ONSET OF FOG AND DRIZZLE.                
KIWX 88D SHOWS SOME LIGHT RETURNS THAT MAY REACH THE GROUND IN THE              
FORM OF A BIT OF DRIZZLE OR FLURRIES. SOME CONCERNS AS STUBBORN AS              
THE DRIER FLOW IS INTO THE AREA THAT FOG MAY STRUGGLE TO GET TOO                
FAR NORTH. WILL REMAIN OPTIMISTIC AS 925/850 MB WINDS RAMP UP                   
LATER TONIGHT AND SHOULD ALLOW THE MSTR TO GET ON THE MOVE.                     
ON SATURDAY...CONTINUATION OF SNOWMELT AND HIGHER DEWPTS WILL                   
CONTINUE IN INCREASING S TO SW FLOW. NAM/GFS/SREF HAVE ALL TRENDED              
SLOWER WITH ARRIVAL OF PRECIP NOT BRINGING IN TILL LIKELY OUTSIDE               
THIS PERIOD. DID NOT WANT TO DROP ALL POPS AT THIS POINT SO WENT                
DRASTIC DOWNWARD TREND AND REPOSITION OF BEST CHC FOR ANY PRECIP                
BY LATE AFTERNOON. WITH SLOWER ARRIVAL OF PRECIP...WARMER TEMPS                 
MAY BE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY IF FOG CAN LIFT OUT SOONER OR DOESN`T                
MATERIALIZE AS MUCH. FOR NOW HAVE LEFT THINGS ALONE TEMP WISE.                  
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM (SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)...                                   
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY                                                   
AMPLIFIED PATTERN ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CONUS WITH DEEP                
TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS AND RIDGING ACROSS THE EAST. SFC                  
WAVE MOVING UP FROM MID MS VALLEY TOWARDS LAKE MICHIGAN BY LATE                 
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY. SFC LOW MOVES THRU THE LP OF                  
MICHIGAN AN NORTH INTO CENTRAL ONTARIO BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON...BEFORE             
PULLING NORTHEAST INTO NORTHERN QUEBEC BY EARLY MONDAY. THERMAL                 
PROFILE ACROSS THE REGION SUGGESTS ALL RAIN THRU THE OVERNIGHT                  
BEFORE STARTING THE TRANSITION PERIOD AROUND DAYBREAK SUNDAY.                   
MODELS HAVING BEEN SLOWING THE SYSTEM DOWN AND HAVE THEREFORE                   
SLOWED THE PRECIP CHANGEOVER DOWN SOME AS WELL...AS THE H850 TEMPS              
DROP FROM +5 C TO BELOW 0C ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION BETWEEN                     
12-15Z. ANY WRAP AROUND OR LAKE ENHANCED PRECIP WILL BE SNOW THEN               
THROUGH THE LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON WITH VERY STRONG CAA                
INTO THE REGION. TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO DROP FROM LATE SATURDAY                 
NIGHT THRU SUNDAY NIGHT...FROM 40S LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO THE                 
20S BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON...AND TEENS FOR LOWS OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY               
MONDAY.                                                                         
SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE FOR THE SYSTEM TO WORK WITH WITH                
PWATS ABOVE 1 INCH EARLY SUNDAY...LIQUID QPF AMOUNTS WILL PUSH .5               
INCHES FOR MOST OF THE AREA...BUT VERY LITTLE SNOW ACCUMS EXPECTED              
THRU THE PERIOD. MAINLY WITH LAKE ENHANCED OR LAKE EFFECT ACROSS                
THE FAR NW PORTIONS OF THE AREA AND ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN TIER                
OF COUNTIES AS THE FLOW ACROSS THE LAKE BECOME MORE WESTERLY WITH               
TIME...MAYBE AN INCH OR TWO. UPPER LEVEL LOW STARTS TO PUSH INTO                
THE GREAT LAKES EARLY SUNDAY AND THRU THE DAY...VERY TIGHT                      
PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION WITH NORTHWEST/WEST FLOW                    
THROUGH THE DAY. GUSTY WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM EARLY SUNDAY                    
THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON. LAKE EFFECT SNOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN                  
TIER OF THE CWA WILL CONTINUE TO BE A POSSIBILITY WITH DELTA T/S                
REACHING LEVELS OF -15 OR MORE BY SUNDAY EVENING.                               
MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY                                                           
SPLIT FLOW ACROSS THE WEST BECOMES MORE CONFLUENT ACROSS THE                    
EASTERN CONUS...UPPER LEVEL LOW PUSHING EAST THRU THE ST LAW RVR                
VALLEY WITH ANOTHER SW CONUS SHRTWV PULLING OUT AND WEAKENING AS                
IT MOVES TO THE NORTHEAST. LARGE SFC HIGH ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE                 
GREAT LAKES/OH AND MS VALLEYS INTO TUESDAY...WITH SOME UPPER LEVEL              
RIDGING BUILDING ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY WITH                  
ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE SW CONUS. BELOW NORMAL TEMPS                   
EXPECTED MONDAY...SLIGHTLY WARMER AND NEAR SEASONAL VALUES OF                   
LOWER TO MID 30S FOR HIGHS. DRY THRU THE PERIOD...A SMALL CHANCE                
OF LAKE EFFECT ACROSS THE FAR NORTH EARLY MONDAY.                               
MID RANGE MODELS HAVING SOME ISSUES THRU THE END OF THE                         
PERIOD...SIGNIFICANT DISAGREEMENTS WITH RESPECT TO THE STRENGTH AND             
TIMING BUT THE LATEST GFS AND THE ENSEMBLE MEANS HAVE BEEN                      
SHOWING SOME SIGNIFICANT WINTRY POTENTIAL TOWARDS THE END OF THE                
MONTH. FIRST POTENTIAL SIGNIFICANT SYSTEM WILL BE WEDNESDAY NIGHT               
INTO THURSDAY TIMEFRAME. CUT-OFF LOW PUSHES EAST INTO THE                       
RIDGE...POSSIBLE NEG TILT WITH SFC LOW MOVING FROM THE LOWER MS                 
VALLEY INTO THE REGION. MOISTURE SHOULD NOT BE A CONCERN WITH THE               
GULF APPEARING TO BE OPEN...PWATS AT OR MORE THAN DOUBLE NORMAL                 
FOR THE TIME OF YEAR. THE TRACK STILL UNCERTAIN...WILL LIMIT THE                
DETAILS...BUT CURRENT BUFKIT AND MODEL THERMAL PROFILES WOULD                   
SUGGEST ALL SNOW. HAVE UPPED POPS TO 50 THRU THE PERIOD WITH                    
HIGHER CONFIDENCE THAT A SYSTEM WILL BE THERE...BUT LOWER                       
CONFIDENCE ON TRACK AND P-TYPE AS THE MODELS THIS SEASON HAVE HAD               
SOME SIGNIFICANT SHIFTS OVER TIME OF UP TO 300-500 MILES.                       
ANOTHER DIGGING UPPER LEVEL LOW INTO THE SOUTHWEST LATE IN THE                  
WEEK...THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...WILL START KICK OUT AND WILL ALLOW                
FOR THE SECOND POTENTIAL WINTER SYSTEM BY THE WEEKEND. PRECIP                   
COULD START AS SOON AS FRI NIGHT/SATURDAY...WITH TRACK AND P-TYPE               
HIGHLY UNCERTAIN...STILL 6-7 DAYS OR MORE OUT MUCH TO CHANGE MOST               
LIKELY. STRONG MODEL SUPPORT FROM THE GFS ENSEMBLES.                            
&&                                                                              
.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
IN...NONE.                                                                      
MI...NONE.                                                                      
OH...NONE.                                                                      
LM...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHORT TERM...FISHER                                                             
LONG TERM...SCHOTT                                                              
UPDATE/AVIATION...HOLSTEN                                                       
</pre> in                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA                                       
357 PM EST FRI DEC 21 2007                                                      
.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT AND SATURDAY)...                                           
FOCUS TONIGHT WILL BE ON ADVANCING AREA OF INCREASED DEWPOINTS AND              
ANTICIPATED LOWER VISIBILITIES IN FOG. LOCATIONS SEEING DEWPTS IN               
THE 34 DEGREE OR HIGHER RANGE TO THE SOUTH AND WEST ARE SEEING THE              
DENSER FOG HOLDING ON. RUC40/NAM12 ALL SHOWING SLOWER ARRIVAL OF                
HIGHER DEWPOINTS...WITH BEST ADVECTION NOT OCCURRING TILL CLOSER                
TO 6Z IN THE SW AND SPREADING NORTH OVERNIGHT. AS A RESULT WILL                 
MAKE FURTHER ADJUSTMENTS AND SLOW DOWN ONSET OF FOG AND DRIZZLE.                
KIWX 88D SHOWS SOME LIGHT RETURNS THAT MAY REACH THE GROUND IN THE              
FORM OF A BIT OF DRIZZLE OR FLURRIES. SOME CONCERNS AS STUBBORN AS              
THE DRIER FLOW IS INTO THE AREA THAT FOG MAY STRUGGLE TO GET TOO                
FAR NORTH. WILL REMAIN OPTIMISTIC AS 925/850 MB WINDS RAMP UP                   
LATER TONIGHT AND SHOULD ALLOW THE MSTR TO GET ON THE MOVE.                     
ON SATURDAY...CONTINUATION OF SNOWMELT AND HIGHER DEWPTS WILL                   
CONTINUE IN INCREASING S TO SW FLOW. NAM/GFS/SREF HAVE ALL TRENDED              
SLOWER WITH ARRIVAL OF PRECIP NOT BRINGING IN TILL LIKELY OUTSIDE               
THIS PERIOD. DID NOT WANT TO DROP ALL POPS AT THIS POINT SO WENT                
DRASTIC DOWNWARD TREND AND REPOSITION OF BEST CHC FOR ANY PRECIP                
BY LATE AFTERNOON. WITH SLOWER ARRIVAL OF PRECIP...WARMER TEMPS                 
MAY BE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY IF FOG CAN LIFT OUT SOONER OR DOESN`T                
MATERIALIZE AS MUCH. FOR NOW HAVE LEFT THINGS ALONE TEMP WISE.                  
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM (SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)...                                   
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY                                                   
AMPLIFIED PATTERN ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CONUS WITH DEEP                
TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS AND RIDGING ACROSS THE EAST. SFC                  
WAVE MOVING UP FROM MID MS VALLEY TOWARDS LAKE MICHIGAN BY LATE                 
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY. SFC LOW MOVES THRU THE LP OF                  
MICHIGAN AN NORTH INTO CENTRAL ONTARIO BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON...BEFORE             
PULLING NORTHEAST INTO NORTHERN QUEBEC BY EARLY MONDAY. THERMAL                 
PROFILE ACROSS THE REGION SUGGESTS ALL RAIN THRU THE OVERNIGHT                  
BEFORE STARTING THE TRANSITION PERIOD AROUND DAYBREAK SUNDAY.                   
MODELS HAVING BEEN SLOWING THE SYSTEM DOWN AND HAVE THEREFORE                   
SLOWED THE PRECIP CHANGEOVER DOWN SOME AS WELL...AS THE H850 TEMPS              
DROP FROM +5 C TO BELOW 0C ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION BETWEEN                     
12-15Z. ANY WRAP AROUND OR LAKE ENHANCED PRECIP WILL BE SNOW THEN               
THROUGH THE LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON WITH VERY STRONG CAA                
INTO THE REGION. TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO DROP FROM LATE SATURDAY                 
NIGHT THRU SUNDAY NIGHT...FROM 40S LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO THE                 
20S BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON...AND TEENS FOR LOWS OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY               
MONDAY.                                                                         
SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE FOR THE SYSTEM TO WORK WITH WITH                
PWATS ABOVE 1 INCH EARLY SUNDAY...LIQUID QPF AMOUNTS WILL PUSH .5               
INCHES FOR MOST OF THE AREA...BUT VERY LITTLE SNOW ACCUMS EXPECTED              
THRU THE PERIOD. MAINLY WITH LAKE ENHANCED OR LAKE EFFECT ACROSS                
THE FAR NW PORTIONS OF THE AREA AND ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN TIER                
OF COUNTIES AS THE FLOW ACROSS THE LAKE BECOME MORE WESTERLY WITH               
TIME...MAYBE AN INCH OR TWO. UPPER LEVEL LOW STARTS TO PUSH INTO                
THE GREAT LAKES EARLY SUNDAY AND THRU THE DAY...VERY TIGHT                      
PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION WITH NORTHWEST/WEST FLOW                    
THROUGH THE DAY. GUSTY WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM EARLY SUNDAY                    
THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON. LAKE EFFECT SNOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN                  
TIER OF THE CWA WILL CONTINUE TO BE A POSSIBILITY WITH DELTA T/S                
REACHING LEVELS OF -15 OR MORE BY SUNDAY EVENING.                               
MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY                                                           
SPLIT FLOW ACROSS THE WEST BECOMES MORE CONFLUENT ACROSS THE                    
EASTERN CONUS...UPPER LEVEL LOW PUSHING EAST THRU THE ST LAW RVR                
VALLEY WITH ANOTHER SW CONUS SHRTWV PULLING OUT AND WEAKENING AS                
IT MOVES TO THE NORTHEAST. LARGE SFC HIGH ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE                 
GREAT LAKES/OH AND MS VALLEYS INTO TUESDAY...WITH SOME UPPER LEVEL              
RIDGING BUILDING ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY WITH                  
ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE SW CONUS. BELOW NORMAL TEMPS                   
EXPECTED MONDAY...SLIGHTLY WARMER AND NEAR SEASONAL VALUES OF                   
LOWER TO MID 30S FOR HIGHS. DRY THRU THE PERIOD...A SMALL CHANCE                
OF LAKE EFFECT ACROSS THE FAR NORTH EARLY MONDAY.                               
MID RANGE MODELS HAVING SOME ISSUES THRU THE END OF THE                         
PERIOD...SIGNIFICANT DISAGREEMENTS WITH RESPECT TO THE STRENGTH AND             
TIMING BUT THE LATEST GFS AND THE ENSEMBLE MEANS HAVE BEEN                      
SHOWING SOME SIGNIFICANT WINTRY POTENTIAL TOWARDS THE END OF THE                
MONTH. FIRST POTENTIAL SIGNIFICANT SYSTEM WILL BE WEDNESDAY NIGHT               
INTO THURSDAY TIMEFRAME. CUT-OFF LOW PUSHES EAST INTO THE                       
RIDGE...POSSIBLE NEG TILT WITH SFC LOW MOVING FROM THE LOWER MS                 
VALLEY INTO THE REGION. MOISTURE SHOULD NOT BE A CONCERN WITH THE               
GULF APPEARING TO BE OPEN...PWATS AT OR MORE THAN DOUBLE NORMAL                 
FOR THE TIME OF YEAR. THE TRACK STILL UNCERTAIN...WILL LIMIT THE                
DETAILS...BUT CURRENT BUFKIT AND MODEL THERMAL PROFILES WOULD                   
SUGGEST ALL SNOW. HAVE UPPED POPS TO 50 THRU THE PERIOD WITH                    
HIGHER CONFIDENCE THAT A SYSTEM WILL BE THERE...BUT LOWER                       
CONFIDENCE ON TRACK AND P-TYPE AS THE MODELS THIS SEASON HAVE HAD               
SOME SIGNIFICANT SHIFTS OVER TIME OF UP TO 300-500 MILES.                       
ANOTHER DIGGING UPPER LEVEL LOW INTO THE SOUTHWEST LATE IN THE                  
WEEK...THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...WILL START KICK OUT AND WILL ALLOW                
FOR THE SECOND POTENTIAL WINTER SYSTEM BY THE WEEKEND. PRECIP                   
COULD START AS SOON AS FRI NIGHT/SATURDAY...WITH TRACK AND P-TYPE               
HIGHLY UNCERTAIN...STILL 6-7 DAYS OR MORE OUT MUCH TO CHANGE MOST               
LIKELY. STRONG MODEL SUPPORT FROM THE GFS ENSEMBLES.                            
&&                                                                              
.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
IN...NONE.                                                                      
MI...NONE.                                                                      
OH...NONE.                                                                      
LM...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHORT TERM...FISHER                                                             
LONG TERM...SCHOTT                                                              
</pre> in                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA                                       
1214 PM EST FRI DEC 21 2007                                                     
.UPDATE...                                                                      
UPDATED GRIDS/ZONES EARLIER TO SLOW DOWN ARRIVAL OF FOG BASED ON                
TRENDS AND RUC40 DATA. HIGHER DEWPTS SLOWLY COMING IN BUT LOOK TO               
BE DELAYED UNTIL LATER TODAY INTO TONIGHT. HAVE PUSHED BACK                     
MENTION OF DENSE FOG TO TONIGHT WHEN MOISTURE WILL INCREASE                     
DRAMATICALLY AS LOW LEVEL FLOW BEGINS TO INCREASE. HAVE JUST WENT               
PATCHY DENSE AT THIS POINT. TEMPS STILL LOOK OK FOR NOW SO HAVE                 
LEFT THEM AND THE REMAINDER OF THE GRIDS ALONE.                                 
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
AS MENTIONED IN UPDATE...HAD PREVIOUSLY SLOWED DOWN ARRIVAL OF                  
MAINLY LOWER VSBYS. WILL NEED TO CONTINUE THIS TREND WITH GENERAL               
MVFR VSBY/IFR CIGS STARTING THE PERIOD THEN DROPPING TO LIFR                    
CONDITIONS BY EARLY EVENING AT KSBN. MAY BE A BIT SLOWER ARRIVAL                
AT KFWA. ONCE THESE ARRIVE...LITTLE OVERALL CHANGE EXPECTED UNTIL               
SATURDAY AS WINDS BEGIN TO INCREASE AND ALLOW FOR BETTER MIXING                 
AND INCREASE IN HGTS/VSBYS.                                                     
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 640 AM EST FRI DEC 21 2007/                         
SHORT TERM...                                                                   
TODAY AND TONIGHT LOTS OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...DRIZZLE AND FOG IS               
THE STORY FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT. WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE               
TODAY. THE SNOW COVER ACROSS THE AREA WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES NEAR               
THE SURFACE COOLER THAN UP ABOVE...SETTING UP A DECENT INVERSION                
TODAY. THIS WILL HELP TO KEEP THE MOISTURE FROM THE MELTING SNOW                
TODAY TRAPPED NEAR THE SURFACE...RESULTING IN FOG ACROSS THE AREA.              
WITH DECENT MOISTURE UP TO ABOUT 5KFT TO 7KFT...DRIZZLE IS ALSO                 
POSSIBLE. THE LARGE DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS IN THE CWA THIS NIGHT                  
HAVE KEPT THE LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE OFF TO THE WEST...BUT THE                      
ATMOSPHERE IS EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE AND MORE SATURATED AS THE                 
HOURS PASS BY...AND EVENTUALLY THE LOWER CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES              
WILL MOVE INTO THE CWA. JUST WHEN THESE LOWER CONDITIONS WILL MOVE              
IN AND WHERE THEY WILL DROP THE MOST HAS BEEN THE TRICKIEST PART                
OF THE FORECAST FOR TODAY. VISIBILITIES ARE STILL UP ACROSS THE                 
CWA SO HAVE SLOWED DOWN THE FOG MOVING INTO/FORMING IN THE AREA.                
ALSO TO NOTE WHERE TEMPERATURES ARE AT FREEZING AND BELOW...MAINLY              
IN THE NORTHEASTERN TO EASTERN PARTS OF THE CWA...EARLY THIS                    
MORNING ANY DRIZZLE WILL BE FREEZING DRIZZLE. BUT TEMPERATURES ARE              
EXPECTED TO WARM UP ABOVE THE FREEZING MARK ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA               
BY MID MORNING. TRICKY YET AS TO HOW FAR EASTWARD AREAS OF DENSE                
FOG COULD MAKE IT...BUT FOR RIGHT NOW JUST HAVE THE WESTERN PART                
OF THE CWA SEEING AREAS OF DENSE FOG FORM THIS MORNING.                         
THE WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EVENING AND                   
TONIGHT...RESULTING IN NON DIURNAL TEMPERATURES FOR TONIGHT.                    
TEMPERATURES WILL EITHER REMAIN FAIRLY STEADY OR SLOWLY INCREASE A              
FEW DEGREES THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT. THEREFORE THIS DAY/S LOW                      
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO OCCUR EARLY THIS MORNING. THE                      
ATMOSPHERE IS GOING TO REMAIN FAIRLY WELL SATURATED IN THE LOWER                
LEVELS THROUGH TONIGHT WITH THE LOW LEVEL INVERSION CONTINUING                  
THROUGH TONIGHT. THEREFORE AREAS OF FOG AND DRIZZLE ARE CONTINUED               
FOR TONIGHT.                                                                    
LONG TERM...                                                                    
SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY                                                       
MAIN EMPHASIS ON WEST COAST SYSTEM TO ARRIVE SAT NIGHT. NAM                     
FAVORED SOLN WITH INITIALIZATION OF COMPLEX WESTERN TROF WITH                   
ALBERTA ENERGY AND STRATOSPHERIC INTRUSION ACRS WCENTL NV/SOCAL AT              
00 UTC. RATHER BROAD TONGUE OF 40F PLUS DEWPOINTS ALREADY POISED                
NORTH OF OHIO RIVER AND WITH SEVERAL HOURS OF ADDITIONAL SNOWMELT               
AND ADVECTIVE COMPONENT WILL AID IN TOTAL MOISTURE INCREASE                     
AHEAD OF STRONG FULL LATITUDINAL SYSTEM THAT WILL UNDERGO RAPID                 
INTENSIFICATION.                                                                
FROM F36-60 RAPID ML HEIGHT FALLS ON ORDER OF 160-190/12 HRS                    
REFLECTS NEAR BOMBO SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS AS RED RIVER VLY SFC LOW               
AT F36/12 UTC SAT NEAR RED RIVER VLY TX SURGES NE TO 1001 MB CNTL               
IL THEN TO 987MB OVER CNTL UP. PWAT APPROACH 1 INCH WITH 7.5-7.8                
G/KG IN 1000-850MB LAYER WITH TREMENDOUS LOW LEVEL KINEMATICS                   
UPPED POPS TO 90 PERCENT WITH STRONG SIGNALS/MOISTURE...CONSIDERED              
ISOLD TSRA THOUGH OVERALL CHANCES SLIGHT. DRY SLOT BEHIND FRONT                 
QUICKLY BRING POPS DOWN TO CHC CATEGORY...AND PTYPE QUICKLY TO                  
SNOW LATE SATURDAY NIGHT WEST IN STRONG/DEEP CAA WITH ABRUPT                    
CHANGEOVER THOUGH LITTLE IF ANY ACCUM EXPECTED. RAMPED WINDS SAT                
THRU SUN NIGHT...ESP SUN GIVEN INTENSITY OF SFC LOW. BEYOND LITTLE              
CHANGE MADE.                                                                    
&&                                                                              
.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
IN...NONE.                                                                      
MI...NONE.                                                                      
OH...NONE.                                                                      
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 AM SUNDAY TO 7 AM EST MONDAY FOR               
     LMZ043-046.                                                                
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHORT TERM...LOTHAMER                                                           
LONG TERM...MURPHY                                                              
AVIATION/UPDATE...FISHER                                                        
</pre> in                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA                                          
530 AM CST FRI DEC 21 2007                                                      
.UPDATED FOR THE AVIATION FORECAST...                                           
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
LOW LAYERS SATURATED THIS MORNING WITH LIFR CIGS/VSBYS ALONG AND                
EAST OF AXA-BNW-LWD LINE AT 09Z.  SYS IN QUESTION FOR WEEKEND                   
PUSHING THROUGH WRN CONUS.  WEAK SHRT WVS NOTED OVER SD AND UPR MS              
RIVER VALLEY WITH PATCHY MID/HIGH CLOUDS ABOVE...BUT LITTLE OTHER               
FORCING IN PLACE FOR THE TIME BEING.                                            
&&                                                                              
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
IMMEDIATE CONCERN WILL BE FATE OF DENSE FOG ADVY.  WILL LEAVE IT                
GOING FCST AREA WIDE THROUGH 15Z.  VSBYS NOT TOO LOW IN WRN                     
SECTIONS AT 09Z...BUT WITH WEAK SELY FLOW AND DIMINISHING MID/HIGH              
CLOUDS FEEL POTENTIAL IS CERTAINLY THERE FOR DENSE FOG DEVELOPMENT              
OVER ENTIRE AREA.  WITH PLENTY OF STRATUS UPSTREAM OVER MO...CANNOT             
SEE ANY REASON WHY LOW VSBYS WILL NOT CONTINUE ERN SECTIONS SO HAVE             
ADVY GOING THERE TOO TIL 18Z.                                                   
ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO SIGNIFICANT WEEKEND SYS.  NAM/GFS BOTH KEEP             
AREA LOCKED INTO STRATUS TONIGHT WITH COLUMN NOT REALLY TRYING TO               
SATURATE UNTIL 09Z AND AFTER.  HAVE LOWERED MEASURABLE POPS THROUGH             
AT LEAST MIDNIGHT WITH FOG AND TRACE MENTIONS OF EITHER DRZL OR FRZG            
DRZL DEPENDING ON SFC TEMPS WHICH GENERALLY FOLLOWED A BLEND OF                 
AVAILABLE GUIDANCE AND LOW LEVEL TEMPS.  TRANSITIONED TO HIGHER POPS            
BEFORE DAYBREAK AND RAIN OR SNOW WORDING.  FORECAST INTO SAT WAS                
BASICALLY A BLEND OF 00Z GFS/12Z ECMWF.  AIRMASS SATURATES WITH ALL             
SNOW NWRN HALF AND RAIN CHANGING TO SNOW SERN HALF.  SFC AND WARM               
LAYER TEMPS FALL AT GENERALLY THE SAME TIME SO ALTHOUGH THERE COULD             
BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF SLEET AS WARM LAYERS DIPS TO 1-3C...DO NOT FEEL            
IT WILL BE LONG ENOUGH OR SIGNIFICANT ENOUGH TO MENTION.  DID PUSH              
START OF WATCH BACK TO 18Z HOWEVER AS BEST UVM DOES NOT ARRIVE UNTIL            
THAT TIME...AND STILL HAVE RAIN MENTION SE.                                     
DENDRITIC LAYER FORCING INCREASES DURING THE AFTERNOON IN 300K ISENT            
SFC AND H5/H6 PRES LAYER.  EXPECT RELATIVELY NARROW SW-NE RIBBON OF             
SNOW TO DEVELOP INTO CENTRAL IA...THEN MORE WIDESPREAD AND INTENSE              
UVM CLIPPING SERN PORTIONS AS PRIMARY SHRT WV EJECTS INTO MID MS                
VALLEY.  SNOWFALL INTENSITIES REALLY INCREASE AS FORCING MOVES INTO             
DVN AREA DURING THE EARLY EVENING.  MOISTURE                                    
TRANSPORT...FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING AND LOWERING STATIC STABILITIES             
ALL COME TOGETHER DURING THIS TIME FRAME.  CONSIDERING THIS AMOUNT              
OF FORCING IN DENDRITIC LAYER...HAVE SNOW AMOUNTS IN HIGH END OF                
COBB OUTPUT WITH AMOUNTS RANGING FROM 1 FAR NW TO 6 FAR SE WHERE UVM            
IS BEST.  QUICK LOOK AT 00Z ECMWF QPF IS NOW HIGHER...BUT LATER                 
SWITCH TO SNOW MAY DIMINISH AMOUNTS SOMEWHAT SE SO PRETTY MUCH STUCK            
WITH AFOREMENTIONED THINKING FOR THE TIME BEING ALTHOUGH THIS TREND             
WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED.                                                        
THESE AMOUNTS DO NOT JUSTIFY WATCH BY THEMSELVES...BUT WITH BLOWING             
SNOW CONSIDERED WILL LEAVE HEADLINE GOING AS IS.  SOMEWHAT LOW                  
CONFIDENCE ON WRN EDGES...BUT WITH BLOWING SNOW POTENTIAL DID NOT               
CHANGE ANYTHING AT THE MOMENT BESIDES ALTERATION OF START TIME AND              
EXTENSION TIL 12Z SUN.  ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO BOOST            
INTO BLIZZARD WATCH YET...WILL MENTION NEAR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS IN              
TEXT OF WSW.  AS SYS MATURES AROUND 00Z...VSBYS COULD DROP TO 1/4MI             
WITH WINDS GUSTING TO NEAR 35 MPH.  SNOW WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH IN               
OUR AREA DURING THE EVENING...BUT BLOWING SNOW POTENTIAL CONTINUES              
OVERNIGHT HENCE WATCH EXTENSION.  WINDS SHOULD GUST WELL THROUGH THE            
20S FOR AN EXTENDED PERIOD.                                                     
RAW MODEL AND SREF TEMPS SUGGEST GUIDANCE IS TOO WARM TODAY AND COOL            
TONIGHT WITH BLANKET OF STRATUS SO HAVE GONE BELOW AND ABOVE MOS                
TODAY AND TONIGHT RESPECTIVELY.  WENT ABOVE SAT MORNING BEFORE TEMPS            
START CRASHING WITH QUICK SURGE OF WAA.  EXPECT LITTLE REBOUND SUN              
WITH WRAP AROUND STRATUS SO HAVE UNDERCUT GUIDANCE SUN.                         
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...21/12Z                                                              
LIFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THROUGH 15Z AT ALL TERMINAL SITES...WITH            
THE EASTERN TERMINALS STILL SEEING LIFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 18Z.                 
VSBYS MAY IMPROVE THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON INTO THE IFR/MVFR                    
RANGE...HOWEVER CEILINGS ARE STILL EXPECTED TO REMAIN LOW. ALL                  
MODELS INDICATING A DECENT LAYER OF SATURATION THAT PERSISTS                    
THROUGHOUT THE LOWER LEVELS THROUGH THE DAY. HAVE TRENDED TOWARD A              
SLIGHTLY INCREASING VSBYS/CIGS IN THE AFTERNOON...AS RUC HINTS A                
BRIEF TIME PERIOD OF SOME DRIER AIR PUSHING INTO THE                            
WESTERN/SOUTHERN TAF SITES. HOWEVER AM SOMEWHAT SKEPTICAL...AND ALL             
AREAS MAY REMAIN SOCKED IN WITH FOG/LOW STRATUS THROUGH THE DAY WITH            
SOUTHEAST FLOW CONTINUING TO ADVECT MOISTURE FROM MISSOURI/FOG AREA             
INTO THE CWA.                                                                   
&&                                                                              
DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                              
DENSE FOG ADVY ENTIRE AREA THROUGH 15Z...AND ALONG AND EAST OF                  
ALGONA-WEBSTER CITY-DES MOINES-CORYDON LINE TIL 18Z.                            
WINTER STORM WATCH 18Z SAT-12Z SUN ALONG AND EAST OF FOREST                     
CITY-WEBSTER CITY-WINTERSET-CHARITON-CORYDON LINE.                              
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SMALL/ALBRECHT                                                                  
</pre> ia                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS                                            
553 PM MST FRI DEC 21 2007                                                      
.AVIATION...AS OF 00Z...A LOW LEVEL STRATUS CLOUD DECK HAS MOVED                
OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CWA BRINGING MVFR CONDITIONS...WHILE               
VFR CONDITIONS WILL LAST A FEW MORE HOURS OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF              
THE CWA. LIGHT SNOW HAS BEGUN TO FALL OVER EAST CENTRAL AND                     
NORTHEASTERN COLORADO. SNOW WILL GRADUALLY SPREAD ACROSS THE CWA                
FROM THE NORTHWEST TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST. WINDS FROM THE NORTH AND               
NORTHWEST AT 35 TO 30 MPH...GUSTING UP TO 40 MPH AT TIMES...WILL                
ACCOMPANY THE SNOW FALL THROUGHOUT MOST OF THE TAF PERIOD. AFTER                
06Z...WHEN THE SNOWFALL BECOMES MORE WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE                      
AREA...BLOWING SNOW WILL LIKELY RESULT IN PERIODS OF VLIFR                      
CONDITIONS. BY 18Z...THE SNOW AND WINDS WILL DIMINISH AS CEILINGS               
BEGIN TO SCATTER OUT.                                                           
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 200 PM MST FRI DEC 21 2007/                         
.DISCUSSION...FORECAST CONCERNS ARE ON WINDS AND SNOW TONIGHT                   
THROUGH EARLY IN THE DAY SATURDAY. MORE SNOW EXPECTED AGAIN                     
CHRISTMAS DAY INTO WEDNESDAY WITH ANOTHER THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.                 
.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT-MONDAY NIGHT)...                                           
TONIGHT-SATURDAY...UPPER TROUGH AXIS CURRENTLY EXTENDING ALONG THE              
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT AND BY 18Z               
BE EAST OF THE AREA. THE COMBINATION OF 850-500MB MOISTURE/MID                  
LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS AND 250 JET DIVERGENCE WILL FAVOR HIGHEST POPS              
ACROSS SOUTHERN 2/3 OF THE AREA...HIGHEST ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH. TOTAL           
ACCUMULATIONS IN THIS AREA WILL RANGE FROM 1 TO 3 INCHES...HIGHEST              
SOUTH. LATEST NAM/RUC SHOWING SOME ORGANIZATION TO THE SNOW ACROSS              
INTERSTATE 70 WITH A LULL IN SNOW IN THE DOWNSLOPE AREAS OF                     
CHEYENNE COUNTY COLORADO AND WALLACE KS. WILL ISSUE A SNOW AND                  
BLOWING SNOW ADVISORY AS A RESULT FROM 03Z TONIGHT THROUGH 18Z                  
SATURDAY. ELSEWHERE...WILL UPDATE THE HWO TO TALK ABOUT THE SNOW                
AND POTENTIAL FOR BLOWING SNOW OUTSIDE THE ADVISORY AREA. WILL                  
KEEP SOME POPS MENTIONED ACROSS THE FAR EAST/SOUTHEAST THROUGH 18Z              
SATURDAY GIVEN TIMING DIFFERENCES AMONGST THE MODELS WITH REGARD                
TO HOW FAST THE SYSTEM LEAVES THE AREA. GFS/09Z SREF THE SLOWER OF              
THE MODELS WITH THE NAM/NGM A BIT QUICKER. AFTER 18Z IT SHOULD BE               
PRETTY MUCH OVER WITH...EXCEPT THE WIND.                                        
ONCE THE SNOW ENDS WE STILL HAVE TO DEAL WITH STRONG WINDS JUST                 
OFF THE SURFACE AND INCREASING SUNSHINE AS THE SYSTEM MOVES EAST.               
QUESTION BECOMES WHETHER THE WIND WILL FULLY MIX TO THE SURFACE                 
GIVEN EXISTING SNOW COVER AND EXPECTED LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS. FOR                 
NOW WILL NOT ISSUE A WIND ADVISORY FOR THE 18Z- 22Z TIME FRAME                  
GIVEN THE CONCERN LISTED ABOVE.                                                 
SATURDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY...WILL HAVE A BRIEF PERIOD OF CLEAR SKIES                 
BEFORE MID AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE SPREADS ACROSS THE AREA FROM                
THE NORTHWEST AFTER MIDNIGHT AS ANOTHER QUICK MOVING SYSTEM MAKES               
ITS WAY TOWARD THE AREA. COLUMN STARTS TO SATURATE IN THE 850-500               
LAYER DURING THE DAY SUNDAY FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST. DESPITE                
THE INCREASE IN MOISTURE DYNAMICS AND LIFT ARE LACKING...THUS WILL              
MAINTAIN A NO POP FORECAST.                                                     
SUNDAY NIGHT-MONDAY NIGHT...WELL ORGANIZED UPPER DISTURBANCE                    
EMBEDDED IN A DEEP AND COMPACT TROUGH WILL MOVE SOUTH THROUGH THE               
FRONT RANGE AND EASTERN PLAINS OF COLORADO INTO SOUTHWEST/SOUTH                 
CENTRAL KANSAS BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. LOOKS LIKE THIS SYSTEM                 
WILL SLIDE JUST FAR ENOUGH WEST AND SOUTH OF THE AREA TO KEEP                   
SILENT POPS IN THE FORECAST...GENERALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST PART               
OF THE AREA. WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON IT FOR POSSIBLE INCREASE               
IN POPS FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW...AGAIN GENERALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST              
1/3 OF THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT. LITTLE TO TALK ABOUT MONDAY BUT                   
MONDAY NIGHT FEATURES ANOTHER TROUGH AND INCREASING                             
MOISTURE/CLOUDINESS MOVING TOWARD THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST.                  
.LONG TERM (TUESDAY-FRIDAY)...                                                  
GENERALLY FOLLOWED ECMWF GUIDANCE FOR THE EXTENDED AS IT HAS                    
SHOWN THE BEST RUN TO RUN CONTINUITY AND ALSO RECEIVES SUPPORT                  
FROM THE CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN. APPEARS THE ACTIVE SYNOPTIC SCALE              
FLOW PATTERN WILL CONTINUE WITH A SERIES OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS                   
TRAVERSING THE CWA DURING THIS TIME FRAME.                                      
THE FIRST SYSTEM LOOKS TO ARRIVE ON CHRISTMAS DAY AS THE H5 RIDGE               
SLIDES OFF TO THE EAST. WHILE IT APPEARS MAIN AREA OF H85-H7                    
FRONTOGENESIS WILL STAY SOUTH OF OUR CWA...IT WILL BE CLOSE ENOUGH              
TO ALLOW AT LEAST SOME LIGHT SNOW TO FALL. WITH H85 WINDS AOB                   
20KTS...TRAVEL ISSUES DO NOT APPEAR TO BE A CONCERN AT THIS TIME. EC            
IS SLOWER IN MOVING THE SYSTEM OUT OF THE AREA SO HAVE SLIGHT CHC TO            
CHC POPS CONTINUING INTO WEDNESDAY.                                             
APPEARS WE WILL HAVE A VERY SHORT BREAK BEFORE THE NEXT SHORTWAVE               
TROUGH MOVES IN AROUND MIDDAY ON THURSDAY. DYNAMICS APPEAR A LITTLE             
BETTER FOR US WITH THIS STORM AS THE EC TRACKS THE H5 OPEN WAVE                 
TROUGH OVER SOUTHWEST KANSAS. WENT WITH SLIGHT CHC POPS FOR NOW BUT             
WILL NEED TO MONITOR FUTURE RUNS FOR ANY NECESSARY ADJUSTMENTS. WILL            
SEE WEAK RIDGING START TO SET BY LATE FRIDAY AS THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH            
SHIFTS OFF TO THE NORTHEAST AND INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION.            
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
FOR THE 00Z TAF...NORTHWEST WINDS OF 25 TO 30 KTS WITH HIGHER                   
GUSTS WILL BLOW THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. SNOWFALL WILL BEGIN IN THE              
KGLD AREA SHORTLY BEFORE 06Z WHILE KMCK WILL NOT START TIL THE                  
06-09Z TIME FRAME. THE COMBINATION OF THE WIND AND SNOW WILL                    
PRODUCE REDUCED VISIBILITIES IN SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW THROUGH                   
ROUGHLY 12-15Z SATURDAY MORNING. FROM 15Z-22Z WINDS WILL REMAIN                 
IN THE 20 TO 30 KT RANGE THEN QUICKLY FALL OFF WITH A GRADUAL                   
CLEARING FROM WEST TO EAST. CIGS WILL BE IN THE MVFR/IFR RANGE                  
THROUGH THE PRECIPITATION DURATION.                                             
&&                                                                              
&&                                                                              
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
KS...SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM MST /12 PM CST/                 
     SATURDAY FOR KSZ013>016-028-029-041-042.                                   
NE...NONE.                                                                      
CO...SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM MST SATURDAY FOR                
     COZ091.                                                                    
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
BURTIS/DDT/BLM                                                                  
</pre> ks                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS                                            
200 PM MST FRI DEC 21 2007                                                      
.DISCUSSION...FORECAST CONCERNS ARE ON WINDS AND SNOW TONIGHT                   
THROUGH EARLY IN THE DAY SATURDAY. MORE SNOW EXPECTED AGAIN                     
CHRISTMAS DAY INTO WEDNESDAY WITH ANOTHER THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.                 
.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT-MONDAY NIGHT)...                                           
TONIGHT-SATURDAY...UPPER TROUGH AXIS CURRENTLY EXTENDING ALONG THE              
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT AND BY 18Z               
BE EAST OF THE AREA. THE COMBINATION OF 850-500MB MOISTURE/MID                  
LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS AND 250 JET DIVERGENCE WILL FAVOR HIGHEST POPS              
ACROSS SOUTHERN 2/3 OF THE AREA...HIGHEST ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH. TOTAL           
ACCUMULATIONS IN THIS AREA WILL RANGE FROM 1 TO 3 INCHES...HIGHEST              
SOUTH. LATEST NAM/RUC SHOWING SOME ORGANIZATION TO THE SNOW ACROSS              
INTERSTATE 70 WITH A LULL IN SNOW IN THE DOWNSLOPE AREAS OF                     
CHEYENNE COUNTY COLORADO AND WALLACE KS. WILL ISSUE A SNOW AND                  
BLOWING SNOW ADVISORY AS A RESULT FROM 03Z TONIGHT THROUGH 18Z                  
SATURDAY. ELSEWHERE...WILL UPDATE THE HWO TO TALK ABOUT THE SNOW                
AND POTENTIAL FOR BLOWING SNOW OUTSIDE THE ADVISORY AREA. WILL                  
KEEP SOME POPS MENTIONED ACROSS THE FAR EAST/SOUTHEAST THROUGH 18Z              
SATURDAY GIVEN TIMING DIFFERENCES AMONGST THE MODELS WITH REGARD                
TO HOW FAST THE SYSTEM LEAVES THE AREA. GFS/09Z SREF THE SLOWER OF              
THE MODELS WITH THE NAM/NGM A BIT QUICKER. AFTER 18Z IT SHOULD BE               
PRETTY MUCH OVER WITH...EXCEPT THE WIND.                                        
ONCE THE SNOW ENDS WE STILL HAVE TO DEAL WITH STRONG WINDS JUST                 
OFF THE SURFACE AND INCREASING SUNSHINE AS THE SYSTEM MOVES EAST.               
QUESTION BECOMES WHETHER THE WIND WILL FULLY MIX TO THE SURFACE                 
GIVEN EXISTING SNOW COVER AND EXPECTED LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS. FOR                 
NOW WILL NOT ISSUE A WIND ADVISORY FOR THE 18Z- 22Z TIME FRAME                  
GIVEN THE CONCERN LISTED ABOVE.                                                 
SATURDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY...WILL HAVE A BRIEF PERIOD OF CLEAR SKIES                 
BEFORE MID AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE SPREADS ACROSS THE AREA FROM                
THE NORTHWEST AFTER MIDNIGHT AS ANOTHER QUICK MOVING SYSTEM MAKES               
ITS WAY TOWARD THE AREA. COLUMN STARTS TO SATURATE IN THE 850-500               
LAYER DURING THE DAY SUNDAY FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST. DESPITE                
THE INCREASE IN MOISTURE DYNAMICS AND LIFT ARE LACKING...THUS WILL              
MAINTAIN A NO POP FORECAST.                                                     
SUNDAY NIGHT-MONDAY NIGHT...WELL ORGANIZED UPPER DISTURBANCE                    
EMBEDDED IN A DEEP AND COMPACT TROUGH WILL MOVE SOUTH THROUGH THE               
FRONT RANGE AND EASTERN PLAINS OF COLORADO INTO SOUTHWEST/SOUTH                 
CENTRAL KANSAS BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. LOOKS LIKE THIS SYSTEM                 
WILL SLIDE JUST FAR ENOUGH WEST AND SOUTH OF THE AREA TO KEEP                   
SILENT POPS IN THE FORECAST...GENERALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST PART               
OF THE AREA. WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON IT FOR POSSIBLE INCREASE               
IN POPS FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW...AGAIN GENERALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST              
1/3 OF THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT. LITTLE TO TALK ABOUT MONDAY BUT                   
MONDAY NIGHT FEATURES ANOTHER TROUGH AND INCREASING                             
MOISTURE/CLOUDINESS MOVING TOWARD THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST.                  
.LONG TERM (TUESDAY-FRIDAY)...                                                  
GENERALLY FOLLOWED ECMWF GUIDANCE FOR THE EXTENDED AS IT HAS                    
SHOWN THE BEST RUN TO RUN CONTINUITY AND ALSO RECEIVES SUPPORT                  
FROM THE CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN. APPEARS THE ACTIVE SYNOPTIC SCALE              
FLOW PATTERN WILL CONTINUE WITH A SERIES OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS                   
TRAVERSING THE CWA DURING THIS TIME FRAME.                                      
THE FIRST SYSTEM LOOKS TO ARRIVE ON CHRISTMAS DAY AS THE H5 RIDGE               
SLIDES OFF TO THE EAST. WHILE IT APPEARS MAIN AREA OF H85-H7                    
FRONTOGENESIS WILL STAY SOUTH OF OUR CWA...IT WILL BE CLOSE ENOUGH              
TO ALLOW AT LEAST SOME LIGHT SNOW TO FALL. WITH H85 WINDS AOB                   
20KTS...TRAVEL ISSUES DO NOT APPEAR TO BE A CONCERN AT THIS TIME. EC            
IS SLOWER IN MOVING THE SYSTEM OUT OF THE AREA SO HAVE SLIGHT CHC TO            
CHC POPS CONTINUING INTO WEDNESDAY.                                             
APPEARS WE WILL HAVE A VERY SHORT BREAK BEFORE THE NEXT SHORTWAVE               
TROUGH MOVES IN AROUND MIDDAY ON THURSDAY. DYNAMICS APPEAR A LITTLE             
BETTER FOR US WITH THIS STORM AS THE EC TRACKS THE H5 OPEN WAVE                 
TROUGH OVER SOUTHWEST KANSAS. WENT WITH SLIGHT CHC POPS FOR NOW BUT             
WILL NEED TO MONITOR FUTURE RUNS FOR ANY NECESSARY ADJUSTMENTS. WILL            
SEE WEAK RIDGING START TO SET BY LATE FRIDAY AS THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH            
SHIFTS OFF TO THE NORTHEAST AND INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION.            
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
FOR THE 00Z TAF...NORTHWEST WINDS OF 25 TO 30 KTS WITH HIGHER                   
GUSTS WILL BLOW THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. SNOWFALL WILL BEGIN IN THE              
KGLD AREA SHORTLY BEFORE 06Z WHILE KMCK WILL NOT START TIL THE                  
06-09Z TIME FRAME. THE COMBINATION OF THE WIND AND SNOW WILL                    
PRODUCE REDUCED VISIBILITIES IN SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW THROUGH                   
ROUGHLY 12-15Z SATURDAY MORNING. FROM 15Z-22Z WINDS WILL REMAIN                 
IN THE 20 TO 30 KT RANGE THEN QUICKLY FALL OFF WITH A GRADUAL                   
CLEARING FROM WEST TO EAST. CIGS WILL BE IN THE MVFR/IFR RANGE                  
THROUGH THE PRECIPITATION DURATION.                                             
&&                                                                              
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
KS...SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW ADVISORY FROM 8 PM MST /9 PM CST/ THIS               
     EVENING TO 11 AM MST /12 PM CST/ SATURDAY FOR KSZ013>016-                  
     028-029-041-042.                                                           
NE...NONE.                                                                      
CO...SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 11 AM             
     MST SATURDAY FOR COZ091.                                                   
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
DDT/FOLTZ/BURTIS                                                                
</pre> ks                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS                                          
254 PM CST FRI DEC 21 2007                                                      
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
DAYS 1-2...                                                                     
CONCERNS HAVE INCREASED THIS FORECAST PACKAGE REGARDING DANGEROUS               
SNOW AND BLOWING/DRIFTING SNOW THREAT...TO THE POINT THAT BLIZZARD              
WARNING IS NECESSARY ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST KANSAS.                       
EARLY AFTERNOON WATER VAPOR LOOP WITH RUC ANALYSIS OVERLAY SHOWS                
CLUSTER OF MID LEVEL PV MAXIMA ACROSS FOUR CORNERS REGION. PRIMARY              
VORT MAX WAS JUST ENTERING WESTERN NEW MEXICO WITH PERSISTENT                   
LIGHTNING STRIKES NOTED AS WELL. THE PRIMARY MID LEVEL VORT WILL                
CONTINUE TO ROUND THE BASE OF THE TROUGH AND EJECT NORTHEASTWARD                
DURING THE EVENING HOURS...SPAWNING SUBSTANTIAL LOWER TROPOSPHERIC              
DEVELOPMENT TO THE SOUTH OF DDC CWA ACROSS THE PANHANDLES. LATEST               
12HR FORECAST OF RUC AND NAM SHOW FAIRLY STRONG CYCLOGENESIS IN                 
THE H85-7 LAYER ALONG THE "GOLDEN PATH" FOR SOUTHWEST KANSAS HEAVY              
PRECIPITATION EVENT. AS A MATTER OF FACT...THE LATEST RUC AND NAM               
18Z RUNS SUGGEST MORE LOWER TROPOSPHERIC DEVELOPMENT AND                        
SUBSEQUENTLY STRONGER LIFT FOR HEAVIER PRECIPITATION. THE 18Z NAM               
SHOWS MORE QPF AS WELL AS A RESULT (ON THE ORDER OF 5 TO 8                      
INCHES OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES). THE GREATEST H7                         
FRONTOGENESIS ASSOCIATED WITH THE CYCLONE WILL BE FOCUSED MAINLY                
ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE ARKANSAS RIVER. IT STILL APPEARS THAT THE                
DURATION OF SNOWFALL AT ANY ONE LOCATION WILL BE AROUND 6 TO 8                  
HOURS ON AVERAGE. DURING THIS TIME FRAME...SUBSTANTIAL SURFACE                  
WINDS WILL PREVAIL WITH SUSTAINED NORTH WINDS ON THE ORDER OF 25                
TO 35 MPH. GUSTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE FREQUENTLY IN THE 35 TO 45 MPH              
RANGE...AND GIVEN THIS...HAVE DECIDED TO UPGRADE THE WINTER STORM               
WATCH TO A BLIZZARD WARNING FOR ROUGHLY SYRACUSE TO JETMORE TO                  
KINSLEY...SOUTH TO THE OKLAHOMA BORDER. NORTH AND EAST OF THIS                  
BLIZZARD WARNING WILL GO WITH A SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW ADVISORY.                 
IN THE BLIZZARD WARNING AREA...AM EXPECTING WIDESPREAD 3 TO 5                   
INCHES WITH SOME LOCAL 6 OR 7 INCH AMOUNTS POSSIBLE...ALTHOUGH                  
MEASURING THE SNOW WILL BE A DIFFICULT ENDEAVOR TO SAY THE LEAST.               
IN THE SNOW/BLOWING SNOW ADVISORY AREA...WILL GO WITH MAINLY 1 TO               
3 INCHES WITH THE 3-HR WINDOW OF BELOW 1/4 MILE VISIBILITY                      
LESS CERTAIN TO MEET BLIZZARD CRITERIA.                                         
TRAVEL IS EXPECTED TO BE NEARLY IMPOSSIBLE DURING THE OVERNIGHT                 
HOURS AND EARLY SATURDAY MORNING ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHWEST                       
KANSAS...AND WILL EMPHASIZE THIS IN THE UPDATED WSW PRODUCT. IF                 
THERE IS A SILVER LINING TO THIS STORM IT IS THE FACT THAT IT WILL              
BE AT ITS HEIGHT DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS SUCH              
THAT TRAVEL WILL LIKELY BE LIMITED AS IT IS -- THAT SAID...IF THE               
SYSTEM EVOLVES AND EJECTS JUST A FEW HOURS SLOWER...THIS WILL PUT               
THE BULK OF SATURDAY MORNING/THROUGH MIDDAY IN EXTREMELY HAZARDOUS              
CONDITIONS ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. THE WINDS WILL NOT DECREASE                 
MUCH AT ALL THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...SO EVEN ONCE THE SNOW                       
ENDS...LINGERING BLOWING AND DRIFTING WILL REMAIN A PROBLEM.                    
THE LOW SHIFTS RAPIDLY EAST BY SAT AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH                 
MUCH LIGHTER WESTERLY WINDS TAKING OVER. DOWNSLOPE FLOW SHOULD                  
HELP ERODE COLD AIR FROM THE LOWER TROPOSPHERE...HOWEVER IF THERE               
IS SUBSTANTIAL NEW SNOW COVER...TEMPERATURES WILL BE DIFFICULT TO               
RECOVER SUNDAY (ABOVE THE LOWER 30S).  -UMSCHEID                                
DAYS 3-7...                                                                     
MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGES IN THIS EXTENDED PERIOD CONTINUE TO BE                 
CHANCES OF SNOW WITH SEVERAL PROGRESSIVE SHORTWAVES INTO FRIDAY.                
AN UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR SNOW ON MONDAY                
FOLLOWED BY A STRONGER WAVE ON TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY, THEN               
ANOTHER ON THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY MORNING. IT IS MUCH TOO EARLY TO                
TELL HOW MUCH SNOW WITH ANY OF THESE SYSTEMS HOWEVER THE ONE ON                 
MONDAY DOES NOT LOOK LIKE TOO MUCH ACCUMULATION. MODELS HAVE COME TO            
A GENERAL AGREEMENT ON THE POSITION OF THESE SHORTWAVES BUT THE                 
EXACT STORM TRACK AND UPPER LIFT WITH EACH ARE STILL NOT IN THE                 
REALM OF PREDICTION THEREFORE SNOW AMOUNTS WILL BE HARD TO GUESS.               
STILL SOME ACCUMULATIONS ARE PROBABLE WITH EACH SYSTEM ESPECIALLY               
THE LATTER ONES. AS FOR TEMPERATURES HIGHS SHOULD ONLY BE IN THE 30S            
WITH LOWS FROM THE UPPER TEENS TO LOW 20S. LOOKS LIKE A POSSIBLE                
WARMING TREND BY AROUND NEW YEARS.                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
VFR CONDITIONS WILL RAPIDLY DETERIORATE TO IFR BY AROUND 06Z TONIGHT            
AS SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW BEGINS WITH WINDS PICKING UP TO 25 TO                  
35KTS. THE SNOW COULD BECOME HEAVY ENOUGH BY 8Z TO 14Z WITH STRONG              
WIND GUSTS TO 45KTS WITH LIFR CONDITIONS. LOOK FOR RAPID IMPROVEMENT            
AROUND 18Z SATURDAY WITH WINDS GRADUALLY DECREASING WITH SNOW MOVING            
OFF TO THE EAST. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD RETURN AFTER 20Z SATURDAY.               
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
DDC  23  28  15  37 /  90  90   0   0                                           
GCK  21  28  12  37 /  80  80   0   0                                           
EHA  22  28  13  37 /  90  80   0   0                                           
LBL  23  28  14  38 /  90  90   0   0                                           
HYS  22  26  14  34 /  80  90   0   0                                           
P28  27  30  16  36 /  80  90   0   0                                           
&&                                                                              
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 12 PM                   
CST SATURDAY FOR KSZ030-031-043>046-065-066-081-090.                            
BLIZZARD WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT CST /11 PM MST/ TONIGHT TO 12 PM                 
CST /11 AM MST/ SATURDAY FOR KSZ061>064-074>080-084>089.                        
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
FN25/06/06                                                                      
</pre> ks                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA                                        
857 PM CST FRI DEC 21 2007                                                      
.UPDATE...                                                                      
AN AREA OF SEA FOG THAT DEVELOPED EARLIER TODAY ACROSS SOUTH-                   
CENTRAL LOUISIANA HAS EXPANDED WESTWARD ALONG THE ENTIRE COAST OF               
SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA...AS WELL AS SPREAD INLAND              
TO NEAR THE I-10 CORRIDOR. SABINE PASS AND NEW IBERIA HAVE                      
REPORTED ZERO VISIBILITIES IN THE PAST HOUR...AND NUMEROUS REPORTS              
FROM MARINE PILOTS AND THE PUBLIC ON AND NEAR CALCASIEU AND SABINE              
LAKES HAVE INDICATED NEAR ZERO VISIBILITIES AS WELL. LOCATIONS                  
CLOSER TO I-10 HAVE BEEN BOUNCING AROUND VISIBILITY-WISE BUT                    
HAVE BEEN AS LOW AS 1 MILE. WENT AHEAD AND ISSUED A DENSE FOG                   
ADVISORY FOR THE SOUTHERN ZONES AND NEARSHORE COASTAL WATERS.                   
DIFFICULT TO DETERMINE WHEN FOG WILL BEGIN LIFTING...AS SURFACE                 
WINDS WILL BEGIN INCREASING OVERNIGHT IN RESPONSE TO STORM SYSTEM               
MOVING OUT INTO THE PLAINS STATES. WILL LET MIDNIGHT CREW                       
REEVALUATE THE SITUATION AND MAY CANCEL THE ADVISORY EARLIER THAN               
SCHEDULED.                                                                      
DESPITE LOW CLOUDS AND FOG...TEMPERATURES HAVE ALREADY FALLEN                   
BELOW FORECASTED MINS FOR TONIGHT SO ADJUSTED LOWS DOWNWARD A TAD.              
HOWEVER...TEMPERATURES WILL EITHER REMAIN STEADY OR RISE OVERNIGHT              
AS WAA INCREASES AHEAD OF AFOREMENTIONED STORM SYSTEM. ALSO                     
ADJUSTED SKY COVER UPWARD ALL AREAS DUE TO ONGOING CLOUD COVER.                 
.MARINE...                                                                      
ISSUED SCEC FOR NEARSHORE WATERS AND SCA FOR OUTER WATERS AFTER                 
MIDNIGHT AS GFS...NAM...AND RUC ALL INDICATE SURFACE WINDS WILL                 
RISE ABOVE CRITERIA BETWEEN 6-9Z. DENSE FOG WILL BEGIN DISSIPATING              
AS SURFACE WINDS INCREASE OVERNIGHT...MOST LIKELY BETWEEN 9-12Z                 
IF NOT SOONER...BUT UNCERTAINTY REMAINS.                                        
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 332 PM CST FRI DEC 21 2007/                         
SYNOPSIS...MOIST AIR IN THE LOWER LEVELS WILL ENCROACH FROM THE                 
EAST AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES BEYOND THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY                 
WITH FOG EAST OF THE ATCHAFALAYA RIVER AGAIN TONIGHT. RAIN CHANCES              
INCREASE ON SATURDAY AS THE NEXT PACIFIC COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH.              
THE PATTERN REMAINS QUITE UNSETTLED NEXT WEEK WITH SEVERAL FRONTAL              
SYSTEMS MOVING THROUGH THE AREA ON CHRISTMAS EVE, WEDNESDAY, AND FRIDAY.        
SHORT TERM...MIN TEMPS LOOK TO BOTTOM OUT EARLY TONIGHT AS                      
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW OFF THE GULF BECOMES ESTABLISHED. LAID OFF OF                
BRINGING IN FOG DUE TO A LACK OF A GOOD FOG SIGNAL ON THE NGM MOS               
ALTHOUGH WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF DENSE FOG SETS UP AGAIN EAST OF              
THE ATCHAFALAYA. VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWING FOG NEAR INTRACOASTAL                  
CITY BUT IS RECEDING. KEPT POPS BELOW GUIDANCE ON SATURDAY AS MOST              
OF THE MOISTURE WILL BE MOVING OUT EARLY IN THE DAY PER LATEST NAM.             
LONG TERM...LONG WAVE PATTERN CONTINUES TO AMPLIFY SYSTEMS MOVING               
INTO TEXAS. THIS MAKES FOR A VERY UNSETTLED WEATHER PICTURE IN                  
THIS HIGHLY PROGRESSIVE WAVE TRAIN. COULD SEE A FREEZE OVER MUCH                
OF THE AREA MONDAY MORNING AS A 1030HPA HIGH OUT OF CANADA SETTLES              
JUST NORTH OF THE AREA.                                                         
AVIATION...IFR CIGS AND MVFR VIS AS A STRATUS DECK TRIES TO MOVE                
INTO THE LFT AND ARA AREAS THIS EVENING. BURNOFF WILL AGAIN BE                  
LATE, CLOSER TO 18Z ON SATURDAY. MVFR CIGS AND VIS AFTER SUNRISE FOR            
LCH AS THAT STRATUS DECK/FOG BANK TRIES TO MOVE IN FROM THE EAST.               
VCTS AFTER 15Z IN ADVANCE OF A PACIFIC COLD FRONT.                              
MARINE...CAUTION CRITERIA CAN BE REACHED AROUND MIDNIGHT TNITE AS               
SOUTHERLY WINDS INCREASE. SCA WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED AS THE COLD                 
FRONT MOVES THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING.                                           
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
KLCH  56  73  42  52 /  10  50  10   0                                          
KBPT  57  72  41  47 /  10  40  10   0                                          
KAEX  56  73  40  46 /  10  50  20   0                                          
KLFT  57  73  42  53 /  10  50  30   0                                          
&&                                                                              
.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
LA...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:            
     ACADIA...CALCASIEU...CAMERON...IBERIA...JEFFERSON DAVIS...                 
     LAFAYETTE...LOWER ST. MARTIN...ST. MARY...UPPER ST.                        
     MARTIN...AND VERMILION.                                                    
TX...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:            
     JEFFERSON...AND ORANGE.                                                    
GM...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:            
     COASTAL WATERS FROM CAMERON, LA TO HIGH ISLAND, TX OUT 20                  
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY TO CAMERON, LA                  
     OUT 20 NM...AND COASTAL WATERS FROM LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER                
     TO INTRACOASTAL CITY, LA OUT 20 NM.                                        
     SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION FROM MIDNIGHT SATURDAY TO 9 AM                
     SATURDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:  COASTAL WATERS FROM CAMERON,            
     LA TO HIGH ISLAND, TX OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM                      
     INTRACOASTAL CITY TO CAMERON, LA OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS                
     FROM LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL CITY, LA OUT 20               
     NM...                                                                      
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT SATURDAY TO 9 AM SATURDAY FOR           
     THE FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM CAMERON, LA TO HIGH                       
     ISLAND, TX EXTENDING FROM 20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM                     
     INTRACOASTAL CITY, LA TO CAMERON, LA EXTENDING FROM 20 NM                  
     TO 60 NM...AND WATERS FROM LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO                      
     INTRACOASTAL CITY, LA EXTENDING FROM 20 NM TO 60 NM.                       
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHAMBURGER                                                                      
</pre> la                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA                                        
955 AM CST FRI DEC 21 2007                                                      
.UPDATE...DENSE FOG BURN OUT DELAYED ON THE LONGEST NIGHT OF THE                
YEAR. SHOULD BE SEEING RAPID IMPROVEMENT OVER THE EASTERN ZONES                 
VERY SHORTLY. WILL ISSUE UPDATED ZONES REMOVING PATCHY FOG ACCORDINGLY.         
OTHERWISE, LOWERED TEMPS TODAY DUE TO BOTH DELAYED BURNOFF AND                  
WEAK SUN USING LATEST UPDATED RUC.                                              
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 610 AM CST FRI DEC 21 2007/                         
DISCUSSION...SHARP MOISTURE GRADIENT ACROSS EXTREME EASTER PARTS                
OF THE REGION...WHERE DEWPOINTS GO FROM 47 AT KLFT TO 59 AT KBTR.               
NOT COINCIDENTALLY...THIS ALSO SERVES AS THE DEMARCATION LINE FOR               
AREAS OF DENSE FOG...WHICH IS PRIMARILY OVER EASTERN PARTS OF                   
LOUISIANA INTO MISSISSIPPI. WILL MENTION AREAS OF FOG WITH DENSE                
SPOTS OVER THE EXTREME EASTERN TIER OF PARISHES...BUT FOREGO AN                 
ADVISORY WITH VISIBILITY BOUNCING AROUND A BIT...WORSENING A                    
LITTLE JUST WEST OF THE ATCHAFALAYA WHILE IMPROVING EAST OF IT.                 
SUNNY AND WARM CONDITIONS ON TAP FOR TODAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE AT                
THE SURFACE GRADUALLY SHIFTING EAST WHILE SHORTWAVE RIDGING ALOFT               
MOVES OVERHEAD. WILL START TO SEE MOISTURE RETURNING TO THE AREA                
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND IN EARNEST LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY                      
SATURDAY ONCE THE SFC HIGH SHIFTS EAST OF THE AREA AND 30-40 LLJ                
DEVELOPS.                                                                       
THERE ARE DIFFERENCES AMONG THE NAM AND GFS THAT HAVE IMPORTANT                 
IMPLICATIONS ON JUST HOW ACTIVE SATURDAY WILL OR WILL NOT BE.                   
WITHOUT DELVING INTO THE GORY DETAILS...SUFFICE IT TO SAY IN                    
SUMMARY THAT THE GFS OFFERS THE BETTER SEVERE POTENTIAL FROM A                  
TIMING...KINEMATIC...AND THERMODYNAMIC PERSPECTIVE...THOUGH IN                  
BOTH CASES INSTABILITY WILL BE A LIMITING FACTOR. TO THAT                       
END...SPC HAS A "SEE TEXT" DENOTED FOR THE AREA...AND CONCUR WITH               
THAT ASSESSMENT GIVEN THE PRESENT UNCERTAINTY.                                  
WHAT DOES SEEM MORE CERTAIN IS STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS AHEAD OF THE              
FRONT...FOLLOWED BY EVEN STRONGER NORTH WINDS BEHIND IT. A LAKE                 
WIND ADVISORY IS POSSIBLE FOR PARTS OF THE AREA ON BOTH                         
SIDES...PARTICULARLY ALONG THE COAST. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS                 
EXPECTED TO COME TO AN END BY SATURDAY EVENING...WITH SUNDAY                    
DOMINATED BY COLD AIR ADVECTION.                                                
FOR THE MEDIUM TO EXTENDED RANGE...HAVE CONTINUED TO LEAN ON THE                
ECMWF...WITH THE GFS COMING MORE IN LINE WITH ITS SOLUTIONS. IT                 
WOULD SEEM THAT THIS SATURDAY FRONT WILL BE THE END OF THE 70                   
PLUS DEGREE DAYS FOR A WHILE...WITH THE TRAIN OF SHORTWAVES AMID                
THE PROGRESSIVE FLOW COMING FAST AND FURIOUS. LOOKS LIKE ABOVE                  
NORMAL RAIN CHANCES ABOUT EVERY TWO DAYS OR SO...WITH THE FIRST                 
SHOT AFTER THIS FRONT COMING MONDAY INTO...YEP...CHRISTMAS. THE                 
HIGHEST POPS FALL ON CHRISTMAS EVE...WITH THINGS HOPEFULLY                      
WINDING DOWN CHRISTMAS DAY AS THE UPPER TROF LIFTS OUT TOWARD THE               
MID ATLANTIC. ANOTHER WILL BE ON ITS HEELS...HOWEVER...AND                      
WEDNESDAY LOOKS TO BE THE NEXT DECENT CHANCE.                                   
AVIATION...EASTERN TERMINALS...KARA...KLFT...AND KAEX...FLIRTING                
WITH EXPANSIVE AREA OF FOG PRIMARILY OVER SOUTHEAST AND NORTHEAST               
LOUISIANA THIS MORNING. THERE HAS BEEN SOME WESTWARD EXPANSION                  
OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS...BUT ANY RESTRICTIONS WILL BE SHORT              
LIVED AND OCCUR GENERALLY PRIOR TO 13Z.                                         
MARINE...SOME PATCHY FOG THIS MORNING OVER THE 0-20NM ZONE FROM                 
INTRACOASTAL CITY TO THE LOWER ATCHAFALAYA. OTHERWISE...LIGHT                   
NORTH WINDS THIS MORNING WILL GRADUALLY BECOME EAST AND FINALLY                 
SOUTH BY THIS AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST OF THE AREA.               
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL STRENGTHEN TONIGHT IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT THAT          
IS FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH THE COASTAL WATERS SATURDAY AFTERNOON               
INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. AN SCEC HEADLINE MAY BE WARRANTED TONIGHT                  
AFTER MIDNIGHT AND SATURDAY PRIOR TO THE FRONT. SHOWERS AND                     
THUNDERSTORMS WILL PRECEDE AND ACCOMPANY THE FRONT...WITH STRONG                
NORTHERLY WINDS AND BUILDING SEAS EXPECTED ONCE IT PASSES THROUGH.              
AN SCA SEEMS LIKELY FOR THESE CONDITIONS BEHIND THE FRONT.                      
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
KLCH  72  57  73  42 /   0  20  40  20                                          
KBPT  73  58  72  41 /   0  20  30  10                                          
KAEX  70  54  73  40 /   0  20  50  20                                          
KLFT  72  58  76  43 /   0  20  40  30                                          
&&                                                                              
.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
LA...NONE.                                                                      
TX...NONE.                                                                      
GM...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
11                                                                              
</pre> la                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA                                          
750 PM CST THU DEC 20 2007                                                      
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
MUCH DRIER AIR HAS FILTERED IN BEHIND A COLD FRONT/DRY LINE WHICH               
ACCOMPANIED OUR UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM EARLY THIS MORNING. THE                
BOUNDARY HAS JUST ABOUT PULLED UP STATIONARY ACROSS OUR EASTERN                 
ZONES THIS EVENING AND IS NOT EXPECTED TO MAKE MUCH MORE EASTWARD               
PROGRESS OVERNIGHT. WITH THE CLEAR SKIES AND HIGH DEWPOINTS ACROSS              
THE EAST NOT TO MENTION THE WET GROUND CONDITIONS FROM RAINFALL                 
THIS MORNING...ALREADY STARTING TO SEE VISIBILITIES CRATER AT                   
ELD...MLU AND AEX. FOR THIS REASON...HAVE DECIDED TO POST A DENSE               
FOG ADVISORY THROUGH 900 AM FRIDAY MORNING RUNNING IT GENERALLY                 
ALONG AND EAST OF A LINE FROM HOPE AND LEWISVILLE ARKANSAS TO                   
MINDEN...COUSHATTA AND NATCHITOCHES LOUISIANA. IF THE LATEST RUC13              
DATA IS TO BE BELIEVED...THEN WE COULD SEE THIS FOG ADVECT FURTHER              
WEST AFTER MIDNIGHT...ENCOMPASSING MUCH OF THE REGION PRIOR TO                  
DAYBREAK FRIDAY. OTHER SHORT TERM PROGS KEEPING ENOUGH DRY AIR OUT              
WEST TO PRECLUDE FOG DEVELOPMENT BUT WILL HEDGE ON THE SIDE OF                  
CAUTION AND JUST MENTION PATCHY FOG ACROSS NORTHEAST TEXAS AND                  
PATCHY DENSE FOG ACROSS EXTREME NORTHWEST LOUISIANA INTO THE                    
TEXARKANA AREA AND SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF                
WE NEED TO EXPAND THE ADVISORY FURTHER WEST LATER TONIGHT BUT WILL              
CROSS THAT BRIDGE IF AND WHEN IT BECOMES NECESSARY.                             
FCST MIN TEMPERATURES AND ALL OTHER GRIDS IN LINE SO NO OTHER                   
CHANCES NECESSARY ATTM.                                                         
UPDATE AND ADVISORY OUT SHORTLY...13.                                           
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS TROUGH AXIS ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE MS             
VALLEY...W/00Z KSHV SOUNDING SHOWING A VERY DRY AMS IN PLACE.                   
HOWEVER...W/WET SOILS...DECOUPLING...AND ABUNDANT RADIATIONAL                   
COOLING...EXPECT DETERIORATING CEILINGS/VSBYS TO IFR/LIFR...W/KELD              
ALREADY IN THE SOUP AT 02Z.  LATEST RUC INDICATES SW AR AND LA MOST             
FAVORED FOR FOG.  EXPECT CONDITIONS TO QUICKLY IMPROVE TO VFR AFTER             
SUNRISE.  FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE CONVECTIVE TEMPS FRIDAY                   
AFTERNOON IN THE TRIPLE DIGITS...SO NO CU FIELD EXPECTED.                       
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
SHV  46  73  53  68 /   0   0  20  50                                           
MLU  48  73  53  69 /   0   0  20  60                                           
DEQ  40  69  49  61 /   0   0  10  40                                           
TXK  47  71  53  63 /   0   0  10  50                                           
ELD  46  73  51  70 /   0   0  10  60                                           
TYR  42  75  54  64 /   0   0  20  30                                           
GGG  41  74  52  67 /   0   0  20  40                                           
LFK  41  76  52  72 /   0   0  30  50                                           
&&                                                                              
.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
AR...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM FRIDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:              
     COLUMBIA...HEMPSTEAD...LAFAYETTE...NEVADA...AND UNION AR.                  
LA...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM FRIDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:              
     BIENVILLE...CALDWELL...CLAIBORNE...GRANT...JACKSON...LA                    
     SALLE...LINCOLN...NATCHITOCHES...OUACHITA...RED                            
     RIVER...UNION LA...WEBSTER...AND WINN.                                     
OK...NONE.                                                                      
TX...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
13/44                                                                           
</pre> la                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI                                             
145 PM EST FRI DEC 21 2007                                                      
.AVIATION...A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER                
QUEBEC...WILL KEEP SOUTHEAST FLOW OVR THE GREAT LAKES REGION THIS               
AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY. THE SOUTHEAST FLOW OVR LAKE HURON WILL KEEP            
AT LEAST A BKN LAKE INDUCED LOW CLOUD DECK...OVER THE APN TAF SITE              
INTO TONIGHT. THE REST OF NRN LWR WILL SEE MVFR/VFR CONDS                       
INTO THIS EVENING. LATER TONIGHT WARMER AIR WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO             
THE GREAT LAKES REGION...FROM A STORM SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE                    
WRN LAKES. THE WARMER AIR MOVING OVER THE SNOW PACK ACROSS NRN                  
MICHIGAN...WILL GENERATE LOW CLOUDS/FOG AND DRIZZLE. THIS WILL                  
GENERATE IFR CIG AND VSBY CONDS OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE NRN MI TAF                 
SITES. LIFR CIGS AND VSBYS ARE EXPECTED OVER NRN MICHIGAN SATURDAY              
BTW 12Z AND 18Z...AS WARM AIR CONTS TO PUSH NORTH INTO THE REGION...            
GENERATING LOW CLOUDS/DRIZZLE/RAIN AND FOG.                                     
SWR                                                                             
&&                                                                              
.UPDATE...ISSUED 1117 AM FRI DEC 21                                             
LITTLE TO NONE OF THE RETURNS ON THE RADAR ARE MAKING IT TO THE                 
GROUND. SO HAVE SLASHED THE POPS FOR THE REST OF THE DAYTIME AS MID             
LEVEL DRY AIR CONTINUES OVER THE REGION. SO FAR, THE NAM AND RUC                
HAVE THE BETTER HANDLE ON THE 850 MB MOISTURE MOVING IN WHICH LOOKS             
THE BEST. SO HAVE SCT SPRINKLES IN THE FORECAST FOR THE AFTERNOON.              
BASED ON THE LOWER CLOUDS (AROUND 1500 FEET) AT ANJ, AS WELL AS                 
BELOW FREEZING TEMPERATURES, PUT PATCHY ZL- IN FOR E UPPER WITH IT              
CHANGING TO SCT SPRINKLES FOR THE AFTERNOON AS THE TEMEPERATURES                
WARM AND THE DRY AIR PUSHES THE LOWER CLOUDS OUT. OTHERWISE,                    
TEMPERATURES AND WINDS LOOK GOOD.                                               
LUTZ                                                                            
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 738 AM EST FRI DEC 21 2007/                         
AVIATION...BKN MVFR CIGS ANTICIPATED ACROSS PORTIONS OF NRN LOWER               
MICHIGAN THIS MORNING...PARTICULARLY AT PLN/APN WITH SE FLOW OFF                
LAKE HURON PUSHING LOW CLOUD COVER INTO THOSE AREAS. OTHERWISE...               
SPOTTY ELEVATED SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL BE FOUND ACROSS THE REGION                 
TODAY ALONG ADVANCING NOSE OF WARM AIR AND MOISTURE ALOFT. LOWERING             
CIGS/VSBYS ALONG WITH AREAS OF DRIZZLE ANTICIPATED TONIGHT LEADING              
TO MVFR AND EVENTUALLY IFV CONDITIONS AT ALL THREE TAF LOCATIONS.               
ADAM                                                                            
&&                                                                              
DISCUSSION...ISSUED AT 509 AM.                                                  
LONGWAVE TROUGH PATTERN PREVALENT ACROSS NORTH AMERICA WITH A MYRIAD            
OF AMPLIFYING SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW. MOST SIGNIFICANT              
OF THESE WAVES...AND WHAT WILL BE THE MAIN FOCUS IN THE FORECAST FOR            
THE WEEKEND...BEGINNING TO TRAVERSE THE EXPANSE OF THE ROCKIES. ONE             
PIECE OF ENERGY NOW DIGGING INTO THE SW STATES WHILE ANOTHER WAVE IN            
WESTERN CANADA. OPERATIONAL NAM/GFS SOLUTIONS AS WELL AS THE GFS                
ENSEMBLES AND ECMWF SOLUTION ALL STILL DEPICTING A TROUGH MERGER                
BETWEEN THESE TWO SYSTEMS OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST... LATE SATURDAY               
THROUGH SUNDAY...AND ASSOCIATED RAPID SPIN-UP OF A DEEP SFC LOW OVER            
NRN MICHIGAN. IN THE MEANTIME...STILL PLENTY TO THINK ABOUT IN THE              
SHORT TERM. BUILDING MID LEVEL RIDGING DOWNSTREAM OF THIS SYSTEM AND            
INCREASING LOW LEVEL WARM/MOISTURE ADVECTION INTO THE WESTERN GREAT             
LAKES EXPECTED TO DOMINATE TODAY THROUGH MUCH OF SATURDAY...WITH                
CHANCES FOR LIGHT SHOWER AND DRIZZLE/FREEZING DRIZZLE ACTIVITY THE              
MAIN FORECAST ISSUES.                                                           
TODAY AND TONIGHT...MID CLOUD COVER AND ELEVATED RADAR RETURNS ALONG            
ADVANCING MID LEVEL MOISTURE GRADIENT CONTINUE TO PRESS INTO THE                
REGION FROM THE WEST-SOUTHWEST. HOWEVER...MORE WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUD             
COVER AND DRIZZLE ACTIVITY STILL WAY BACK ACROSS CENTRAL WISCONSIN              
INTO WESTERN UPPER MICHIGAN...ALTHOUGH SOME STRATUS HAS DEVELOPED/              
EXPANDED ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NE LOWER MICHIGAN OVERNIGHT.              
THUS FAR...RADAR RETURNS LOOK CONVECTIVE IN NATURE AS AXIS OF                   
STEEPER MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES PRESSES OUT OF WISCONSIN. BUT OUTSIDE             
OF A COUPLE OBS IN SW LOWER MICHIGAN SHOWING PRECIP OVERNIGHT...                
NOTHING REALLY GETTING TO THE GROUND THUS FAR. HOWEVER...RADAR                  
RETURNS HAVE INCREASED IN COVERAGE OVER THE LAST HOUR OR SO AND                 
PROBABLY NEED TO CARRY SOME SORT OF PRECIP THIS MORNING AS THE                  
MOISTURE AXIS AND STEEPER LAPSE RATES LIFT UP THROUGH THE REGION.               
QUESTION IS...WHAT WILL IT BE? FORECAST NAM SOUNDINGS FOR THIS                  
MORNING DEPICT ABOVE FREEZING LAYER ALOFT NOSING INTO THE REGION.               
BUT GIVEN THE DRY LOW LEVEL AIR STILL IN PLACE AND CONVECTIVE NATURE            
TO THE PRECIP...THINK ANYTHING THAT DOES REACH THE GROUND WILL BE OF            
THE FROZEN VARIETY. TIME WILL TELL OF COURSE BUT FOR NOW WILL CARRY             
CHANCY SNOW SHOWER WORDING THROUGH MIDDAY.                                      
THEN BY LATER THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY...LOW LEVEL                       
MOISTURE FINALLY GETS SHOVED INTO THE REGION LATER THIS AFTERNOON               
AND ESPECIALLY THIS EVENING...SETTING THE STAGE FOR AREAS OF FOG AND            
DRIZZLE TO DEVELOP. HAVE NOT CHANGED MUCH TO THE GOING FORECAST IN              
THIS REGARD OTHER THAN SLOWING DOWN THE DEVELOPMENT OF WIDESPREAD               
FOG AND DRIZZLE UNTIL LATER IN THE EVENING...AND ADDING FREEZING                
DRIZZLE TO SOME OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS WHERE TEMPS WILL LIKELY             
HOVER AROUND FREEZING. SOUPY CONDITIONS THEN EXPECTED TO PERSIST                
THROUGH SATURDAY ALTHOUGH CONTINUING WARM ADVECTION/MOISTENING ALOFT            
MAY BRING BETTER CHANCES FOR MEASURABLE PRECIP INTO THE REGION. IN              
ANY EVENT...A DREARY...DAMP COOL DAY LOOKS ON TAP FOR NRN MICHIGAN              
WITH TEMPS SLOWLY REACHING THE 35 TO 40 DEGREE MARK.                            
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...TROUGH MERGER SLATED TO TAKE SHAPE              
OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST BRINGING ABOUT A RAPID SPIN UP OF A DEEP SFC             
LOW NEARLY OVER THE STATE...TRACKING UP ACROSS EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR            
ON SUNDAY. VERY STRONG DYNAMICS COME INTO PLAY IN THIS SCENARIO AND             
AT THIS POINT CATEGORICAL POPS ARE JUSTIFIED SATURDAY NIGHT INTO                
SUNDAY WITH A GOOD SWATH OF PRECIP RUNNING UP THROUGH THE REGION.               
ALSO AT THIS POINT...MAINLY RAIN ANTICIPATED SATURDAY NIGHT WITH THE            
LOW DEEPENING JUST WEST OF THE REGION AND +4C OR BETTER H8 AIR                  
GETTING SHOVED UP THROUGH EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN. A RAPID CHANGEOVER            
TO SNOW AS WELL AS SOUTHWEST-WEST LAKE EFFECT/ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS             
EXPECTED TO FOLLOW SUNDAY AS CORE OF -14C OR COLDER H8 AIR ROTATES              
AROUND INTO LOWER MICHIGAN. A LOT OF WIND AND THE POTENTIAL FOR                 
HEAVY SNOW/NEAR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS WITH THIS SYSTEM SUNDAY AND                 
SUNDAY NIGHT WILL LIKELY WARRANT HEADLINES IN THE NEXT 1 TO 2                   
FORECAST CYCLES.                                                                
TBA                                                                             
CHRISTMAS EVE AND CHRISTMAS...LAKE AGGREGATE TROUGHING WILL CONTINUE            
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE DAY ON MONDAY...BEFORE 850MB                 
TEMPERATURES WARM TO AROUND -5C BY 00Z MONDAY. WITH SURFACE TROUGH              
ROTATING ACROSS NORTHERN MICHIGAN EARLY MONDAY MORNING...EXPECT TO              
SEE FAIRLY WIDESPREAD SNOW SHOWERS AND BLOWING SNOW. DURING THE DAY             
ON MONDAY...DEEPER MOISTURE STARTS TO PULL OUT AND PRECIPITATION                
SLOWLY BECOMES PURELY LAKE EFFECT. FINALLY...AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER              
WARMS...LAKE EFFECT WILL END MONDAY EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL                 
BECOME ESTABLISHED OVER THE GREAT LAKES BY CHRISTMAS DAY...PROVIDING            
A FAIRLY PLEASANT DAY WITH HIGHS WARMING INTO THE LOWER 30S UNDER               
PARTLY SUNNY SKIES AFTER STARTING THE DAY IN THE TEENS.                         
KAS                                                                             
&&                                                                              
.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
MI...NONE.                                                                      
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR LMZ341.             
LH...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR LHZ346.             
LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR LSZ321.             
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</pre> mi                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI                                             
1117 AM EST FRI DEC 21 2007                                                     
.UPDATE...LITTLE TO NONE OF THE RETURNS ON THE RADAR ARE MAKING IT              
TO THE GROUND. SO HAVE SLASHED THE POPS FOR THE REST OF THE                     
DAYTIME AS MID LEVEL DRY AIR CONTINUES OVER THE REGION. SO FAR,                 
THE NAM AND RUC HAVE THE BETTER HANDLE ON THE 850 MB MOISTURE                   
MOVING IN WHICH LOOKS THE BEST. SO HAVE SCT SPRINKLES IN THE                    
FORECAST FOR THE AFTERNOON. BASED ON THE LOWER CLOUDS (AROUND 1500              
FEET) AT ANJ, AS WELL AS BELOW FREEZING TEMPERATURES, PUT PATCHY                
ZL- IN FOR E UPPER WITH IT CHANGING TO SCT SPRINKLES FOR THE                    
AFTERNOON AS THE TEMEPERATURES WARM AND THE DRY AIR PUSHES THE                  
LOWER CLOUDS OUT. OTHERWISE, TEMPERATURES AND WINDS LOOK GOOD.                  
LUTZ                                                                            
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 738 AM EST FRI DEC 21 2007/                         
AVIATION...BKN MVFR CIGS ANTICIPATED ACROSS PORTIONS OF NRN LOWER               
MICHIGAN THIS MORNING...PARTICULARLY AT PLN/APN WITH SE FLOW OFF                
LAKE HURON PUSHING LOW CLOUD COVER INTO THOSE AREAS. OTHERWISE...               
SPOTTY ELEVATED SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL BE FOUND ACROSS THE REGION                 
TODAY ALONG ADVANCING NOSE OF WARM AIR AND MOISTURE ALOFT. LOWERING             
CIGS/VSBYS ALONG WITH AREAS OF DRIZZLE ANTICIPATED TONIGHT LEADING              
TO MVFR AND EVENTUALLY IFV CONDITIONS AT ALL THREE TAF LOCATIONS.               
ADAM                                                                            
DISCUSSION...ISSUED AT 509 AM.                                                  
LONGWAVE TROUGH PATTERN PREVALENT ACROSS NORTH AMERICA WITH A MYRIAD            
OF AMPLIFYING SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW. MOST SIGNIFICANT              
OF THESE WAVES...AND WHAT WILL BE THE MAIN FOCUS IN THE FORECAST FOR            
THE WEEKEND...BEGINNING TO TRAVERSE THE EXPANSE OF THE ROCKIES. ONE             
PIECE OF ENERGY NOW DIGGING INTO THE SW STATES WHILE ANOTHER WAVE IN            
WESTERN CANADA. OPERATIONAL NAM/GFS SOLUTIONS AS WELL AS THE GFS                
ENSEMBLES AND ECMWF SOLUTION ALL STILL DEPICTING A TROUGH MERGER                
BETWEEN THESE TWO SYSTEMS OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST... LATE SATURDAY               
THROUGH SUNDAY...AND ASSOCIATED RAPID SPIN-UP OF A DEEP SFC LOW OVER            
NRN MICHIGAN. IN THE MEANTIME...STILL PLENTY TO THINK ABOUT IN THE              
SHORT TERM. BUILDING MID LEVEL RIDGING DOWNSTREAM OF THIS SYSTEM AND            
INCREASING LOW LEVEL WARM/MOISTURE ADVECTION INTO THE WESTERN GREAT             
LAKES EXPECTED TO DOMINATE TODAY THROUGH MUCH OF SATURDAY...WITH                
CHANCES FOR LIGHT SHOWER AND DRIZZLE/FREEZING DRIZZLE ACTIVITY THE              
MAIN FORECAST ISSUES.                                                           
TODAY AND TONIGHT...MID CLOUD COVER AND ELEVATED RADAR RETURNS ALONG            
ADVANCING MID LEVEL MOISTURE GRADIENT CONTINUE TO PRESS INTO THE                
REGION FROM THE WEST-SOUTHWEST. HOWEVER...MORE WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUD             
COVER AND DRIZZLE ACTIVITY STILL WAY BACK ACROSS CENTRAL WISCONSIN              
INTO WESTERN UPPER MICHIGAN...ALTHOUGH SOME STRATUS HAS DEVELOPED/              
EXPANDED ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NE LOWER MICHIGAN OVERNIGHT.              
THUS FAR...RADAR RETURNS LOOK CONVECTIVE IN NATURE AS AXIS OF                   
STEEPER MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES PRESSES OUT OF WISCONSIN. BUT OUTSIDE             
OF A COUPLE OBS IN SW LOWER MICHIGAN SHOWING PRECIP OVERNIGHT...                
NOTHING REALLY GETTING TO THE GROUND THUS FAR. HOWEVER...RADAR                  
RETURNS HAVE INCREASED IN COVERAGE OVER THE LAST HOUR OR SO AND                 
PROBABLY NEED TO CARRY SOME SORT OF PRECIP THIS MORNING AS THE                  
MOISTURE AXIS AND STEEPER LAPSE RATES LIFT UP THROUGH THE REGION.               
QUESTION IS...WHAT WILL IT BE? FORECAST NAM SOUNDINGS FOR THIS                  
MORNING DEPICT ABOVE FREEZING LAYER ALOFT NOSING INTO THE REGION.               
BUT GIVEN THE DRY LOW LEVEL AIR STILL IN PLACE AND CONVECTIVE NATURE            
TO THE PRECIP...THINK ANYTHING THAT DOES REACH THE GROUND WILL BE OF            
THE FROZEN VARIETY. TIME WILL TELL OF COURSE BUT FOR NOW WILL CARRY             
CHANCY SNOW SHOWER WORDING THROUGH MIDDAY.                                      
THEN BY LATER THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY...LOW LEVEL                       
MOISTURE FINALLY GETS SHOVED INTO THE REGION LATER THIS AFTERNOON               
AND ESPECIALLY THIS EVENING...SETTING THE STAGE FOR AREAS OF FOG AND            
DRIZZLE TO DEVELOP. HAVE NOT CHANGED MUCH TO THE GOING FORECAST IN              
THIS REGARD OTHER THAN SLOWING DOWN THE DEVELOPMENT OF WIDESPREAD               
FOG AND DRIZZLE UNTIL LATER IN THE EVENING...AND ADDING FREEZING                
DRIZZLE TO SOME OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS WHERE TEMPS WILL LIKELY             
HOVER AROUND FREEZING. SOUPY CONDITIONS THEN EXPECTED TO PERSIST                
THROUGH SATURDAY ALTHOUGH CONTINUING WARM ADVECTION/MOISTENING ALOFT            
MAY BRING BETTER CHANCES FOR MEASURABLE PRECIP INTO THE REGION. IN              
ANY EVENT...A DREARY...DAMP COOL DAY LOOKS ON TAP FOR NRN MICHIGAN              
WITH TEMPS SLOWLY REACHING THE 35 TO 40 DEGREE MARK.                            
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...TROUGH MERGER SLATED TO TAKE SHAPE              
OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST BRINGING ABOUT A RAPID SPIN UP OF A DEEP SFC             
LOW NEARLY OVER THE STATE...TRACKING UP ACROSS EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR            
ON SUNDAY. VERY STRONG DYNAMICS COME INTO PLAY IN THIS SCENARIO AND             
AT THIS POINT CATEGORICAL POPS ARE JUSTIFIED SATURDAY NIGHT INTO                
SUNDAY WITH A GOOD SWATH OF PRECIP RUNNING UP THROUGH THE REGION.               
ALSO AT THIS POINT...MAINLY RAIN ANTICIPATED SATURDAY NIGHT WITH THE            
LOW DEEPENING JUST WEST OF THE REGION AND +4C OR BETTER H8 AIR                  
GETTING SHOVED UP THROUGH EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN. A RAPID CHANGEOVER            
TO SNOW AS WELL AS SOUTHWEST-WEST LAKE EFFECT/ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS             
EXPECTED TO FOLLOW SUNDAY AS CORE OF -14C OR COLDER H8 AIR ROTATES              
AROUND INTO LOWER MICHIGAN. A LOT OF WIND AND THE POTENTIAL FOR                 
HEAVY SNOW/NEAR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS WITH THIS SYSTEM SUNDAY AND                 
SUNDAY NIGHT WILL LIKELY WARRANT HEADLINES IN THE NEXT 1 TO 2                   
FORECAST CYCLES.                                                                
TBA                                                                             
CHRISTMAS EVE AND CHRISTMAS...LAKE AGGREGATE TROUGHING WILL CONTINUE            
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE DAY ON MONDAY...BEFORE 850MB                 
TEMPERATURES WARM TO AROUND -5C BY 00Z MONDAY. WITH SURFACE TROUGH              
ROTATING ACROSS NORTHERN MICHIGAN EARLY MONDAY MORNING...EXPECT TO              
SEE FAIRLY WIDESPREAD SNOW SHOWERS AND BLOWING SNOW. DURING THE DAY             
ON MONDAY...DEEPER MOISTURE STARTS TO PULL OUT AND PRECIPITATION                
SLOWLY BECOMES PURELY LAKE EFFECT. FINALLY...AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER              
WARMS...LAKE EFFECT WILL END MONDAY EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL                 
BECOME ESTABLISHED OVER THE GREAT LAKES BY CHRISTMAS DAY...PROVIDING            
A FAIRLY PLEASANT DAY WITH HIGHS WARMING INTO THE LOWER 30S UNDER               
PARTLY SUNNY SKIES AFTER STARTING THE DAY IN THE TEENS.                         
KAS                                                                             
AVIATION... /ISSUED 1154 PM EST THU DEC 20 2007/                                
MID/HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS NORTHERN MI OVERNIGHT...SOME ST OVER                     
LAKE HURON MAY IMPACT APN THIS EVENING. CLOUD COVER AND PERSISTENT              
SOUTHEAST FLOW MAY IMPACT FOG POTENTIAL AT TERMINAL SITES OVERNIGHT.            
CEILINGS WILL LOWER DURING THE DAY FRIDAY...PREVAILING MVFR                     
CONDITIONS EXPECTED. SOME DRIZZLE OR LIGHT RAIN POSSIBLE DURING THE             
AFTERNOON.                                                                      
JPB                                                                             
&&                                                                              
.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
MI...NONE.                                                                      
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR LMZ341.             
LH...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR LHZ346.             
LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR LSZ321.             
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</pre> mi                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
1235 AM EST WED DEC 19 2007                                                     
UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION                                                     
.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH THU)...                                            
THE MAIN CONCERN WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR                
PRECIPITATION SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.                                          
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC SHOWING A CLOSED LOW AND ASSOCIATED                 
TROUGH MOVING OVER EASTERN ONTARIO AND A RIDGE SHIFT INTO THE                   
WESTERN ONTARIO AND MINNESOTA. ANOTHER TROUGH IS DEVELOPING OVER                
MIDDLE HIGH PLAINS. SURFACE ANALYSIS DEPICTS A LOW OVER THE LOWER               
GREAT LAKES WITH A BROAD HIGH OVER THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY. A RIDGE               
RUNS FROM THE HIGH NORTH THROUGH WISCONSIN AND THE WEST PART OF THE             
FORECAST AREA. A STATIONARY FRONT STRETCHES FROM NEW ENGLAND THROUGH            
THE LOW TO THE ARROWHEAD OF MINNESOTA. A WARM FRONT RUNS FROM IOWA              
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST SASKATCHEWAN THEN WEST TO CENTRAL BRITISH                
COLUMBIA. A LARGE HIGH BLANKETS THE ROCKIES.                                    
THE MID LEVEL RIDGE WILL SLIDE OVER THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT                 
WHICH WILL CAUSE THE WINDS TO DROP OFF AND BACK SOUTH. THE TROUGH               
THAT IS DEVELOPING OVER THE HIGH PLAINS WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE                   
CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY ON THURSDAY.            
THE WISCONSIN RIDGE WILL SHIFT OVER THE FORECAST AREA BY THIS                   
EVENING AND INTO EASTERN ONTARIO ON THURSDAY. 850MB TEMPERATURES OF             
AROUND -7C OVER EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR AND NORTHWEST WINDS WILL                  
SUPPORT SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW ENHANCEMENT OVER THE PART OF THE                  
EASTERN U.P. TONIGHT. THERE SHOULD BE SOME LIMITED CLEARING TONIGHT             
AND RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL BRING THE TEMPERATURES DOWN TO THE DEW             
POINT. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL ALSO HELP PUSH THE TEMPERATURES UP TO               
AROUND FREEZING ON THURSDAY. SOUNDING DATA SHOWING DRY AIR AND AN               
INVERSION SETTLING DOWN TO 950MB OVER THE FORECAST WHICH TOGETHER               
COULD PRODUCE SOME PATCHY FOG TONIGHT THIS WILL BURN OFF ON THURSDAY            
WITH SURFACE WARMING. WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH WESTERN LAKE                
SUPERIOR ON THURSDAY COULD PRODUCE SOME LIGHT SNOW MAINLY OVER THE              
WESTERN.                                                                        
.LONG TERM (THU NIGHT THROUGH NEXT WED)...                                      
MAIN FORECAST CONCERN REMAINS ON POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY SNOW SAT NIGHT             
INTO SUN.                                                                       
THU NIGHT THROUGH SAT...SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL PREVAIL UNTIL A LOW                
PRESSURE TROUGH SWINGS ACROSS UPPER MI ON SAT (12Z ECMWF IS SLOWER              
THAN 12Z GFS). INCREASED HIGH TEMPS ON FRIDAY TO ACCOUNT FOR WAA OUT            
OF THE SSE. MAY NEED TO INCREASE HIGHS MORE IN FUTURE FORECASTS. AS             
FAR AS PCPN TYPE GOES...MAINLY KEPT WITH GOING FORECAST. IT LOOKS               
LIKE UPSLOPE AREAS WITH A SSE WIND (WESTERN AND CENTRAL U.P.) WILL              
SEE BETTER CHANCE OF FREEZING DRIZZLE...AND OTHER AREAS MAY SEE                 
DRIZZLE. FCST SOUNDINGS IN BUFKIT FOR IRON MOUNTAIN ON FRIDAY SHOW              
GREATER VALUES OF OMEGA AT LOW LEVELS THAN IN MQT AND HOUGHTON. THE             
TEMPS IN IRON MOUNTAIN REMAIN NEARLY ISOTHERMALLY AROUND 0C UP                  
THROUGH 850MB. THE MAIN SATURATED LAYER ALSO OCCURS AT TEMPS GREATER            
THAN -10C...SO DRIZZLE IS ALMOST CERTAIN. FOR MQT AND                           
HOUGHTON...POSITIVE OMEGA VALUES UP TO +5...MID-LEVEL DRY AIR...AND             
SFC TEMPS AROUND 0C LEAD TO UNCERTAINTY IN THE CHANCES OF FREEZING              
DRIZZLE VS. SNOW VS. NO PCPN AT ALL FOR FRI. CHANCES FOR PCPN                   
INCREASE ACROSS ALL OF THE U.P. BY SAT MORNING AS THE LOW PRESSURE              
SYSTEM APPROACHES THE REGION.                                                   
SAT NIGHT THROUGH WED...MODELS HAVE BECOME IN MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT             
WITH THE END OF THE WEEKEND SYSTEM...AND AT LEAST UP IN THE GREAT               
LAKES AREA...ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH WED. AT 00Z                   
SUN...06Z MODELS PROG THE UPPER LOW OVER SASKATCHEWAN ON FRI TO DROP            
DOWN INTO NORTHERN MN ON SAT...WHILE A SHRTWV TROUGH MOVES FROM NEW             
MEXICO UP INTO SW MISSOURI. THERE STILL REMAINS ISSUES WHETHER OR               
NOT THE SHRTWV AND UPPER LOW WILL PHASE TOGETHER...AS NOTED BY THE              
06Z GFS KEEPING THEM UNPHASED. WILL CONTINUE TO SIDE WITH THE PHASED            
IDEA OF THE ECMWF/CANADIAN...WHICH PHASE THEM TOGETHER NEAR LAKE                
HURON ON SUNDAY. THIS RESULTS IN A 1007MB LOW OVER ILLINOIS SAT                 
EVENING TO LIFT N AND DEEPEN RAPIDLY...REACHING NORTHERN LAKE HURON             
AT 12Z SUN WITH A PRESSURE AROUND 990MB. THE LOW WILL THEN TRACK UP             
INTO NE ONTARIO LATER SUN AND INTO QUEBEC ON MONDAY. FOR UPPER                  
MI...THE TRACK IS FAVORABLE FOR HEAVY SYNOPTIC SNOW...WITH Q-VECTOR             
CONVERGENCE PROGS SUGGESTING FROM THE NORTHERN U.P. UP TO JAMES BAY.            
LOOKS LIKE TOO THAT AT LEAST AFTER 00Z SUN...MUCH OF THE PCPN WILL              
SWITCH OVER TO SNOW AS COLD AIR MOVES IN. THERE ARE TWO OTHER                   
ASPECTS OF THIS EVENT TOO. AS THE UPPER LOW APPROACHES SAT                      
NIGHT...850MB TEMPS PLUMMET COMPARED TO 12Z SAT...WITH READINGS                 
DROPPING TO -8C EAST TO -15C WEST BY 12Z SUN. THUS LAKE ENHANCEMENT             
LOOKS LIKE A PRETTY GOOD BET. GIVEN THE LOW TRACK...SURFACE AND                 
850MB WIND FIELDS SUGGEST RIGHT NOW THAT THE BEST ENHANCEMENT IS                
OVER NORTHWEST SNOW-BELTS. THE OTHER ASPECT TO THIS SYSTEM IS                   
WIND...WITH THE 00Z ECMWF SHOWING 850MB WINDS INCREASING TO 45-50 KT            
BY 00Z MON. THUS SOME BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW IS LIKELY...                    
BEGINNING SAT NIGHT. SYNOPTIC SNOW SHOULD CHANGE OVER TO A PURE LAKE            
EFFECT REGIME LATER SUN NIGHT AS THE UPPER AND SURFACE LOWS PULL                
AWAY...WHILE 850MB TEMPS SLOWLY WARM TO AROUND -10C BY 12Z MON. WILL            
DRY OUT CHRISTMAS EVE A BIT MORE NOW...SINCE MOST MODELS PROG UPPER             
AND SURFACE RIDGING TO MOVE INTO THE CWA. ONLY LAKE EFFECT CHANCES              
WILL REMAIN IN NW SNOWBELTS.                                                    
SHOULD THE SCENARIO OF THE UPPER LOW AND SHRTWV NOT PHASE TOGETHER              
AS SHOWN BY THE 06Z GFS...THE EVENT WILL TURN OUT WITH MORE PURE                
LAKE EFFECT SNOW FOR WEST AND NW SNOWBELTS...ALONG WITH BLOWING                 
SNOW. THUS...GIVEN THE DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE ECMWF AND                        
GFS...ANYONE TRAVELING THIS WEEKEND SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR LATER            
FORECASTS.                                                                      
FOR CHRISTMAS EVE NIGHT INTO CHRISTMAS DAY...THE WEATHER LOOKS                  
PRETTY TRANQUIL...WITH ONLY A WEAK SHRTWV TROUGH CROSSING CHRISTMAS             
EVE NIGHT. THE ECMWF AND GFS DEPICT LITTLE IF ANY PCPN FROM                     
THIS...AND THUS WILL NOT INCLUDE ANY IN THE FORECAST. ALSO...WITH SW            
FLOW DURING THIS PERIOD AND 850MB TEMPS CLIMBING TO -4 TO -6C BY 00Z            
WED...NO NEED FOR ANY LAKE EFFECT PCPN CHANCES. A NORTHERN STREAM               
SHRTWV TROUGH IS SHOWN BY THE GFS AND ECMWF TO APPROACH THE CWA TUE             
NIGHT AND WED. WILL BRING IN SOME SNOW CHANCES ON TUE NIGHT OVER                
WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR...THEN ACROSS THE CWA ON WEDNESDAY AS THE                 
TROUGH MOVES THROUGH AND 850MB TEMPS DROP TO GENERATE LAKE EFFECT               
SNOW.                                                                           
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION (FOR THE 06Z TAF ISSUANCE)...                                         
LOOK FOR MVFR CIGS AT BOTH LOCATIONS TO LOWER TO IFR AS FLOW BECOMES            
SE (UPSLOPE AT BOTH LOCATIONS) AND DRYING/SUBSIDENCE ALOFT KEEPS                
MOISTURE TRAPPED AT LOW-LEVELS. MOIST UPSLOPE FLOW MAY ALSO                     
CONTRIBUTE TO TEMPORARY IFR VBSYS LATE TONIGHT AT KSAW. EXPECT SOME             
IMPROVEMENT AT KCMX BY LATE THU MORNING WHERE FLOW WILL SHIFT SSE               
WHICH IS NOT AS FAVORED AN UPSLOPE DIRECTION. SSE FLOW SHOULD                   
CONTINUE TO KEEP KSAW SOCKED IN UNDER MVFR CIGS.                                
&&                                                                              
.MARINE (FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)...                       
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT UNDER A RIDGE THAT EXTENDS FROM FROM QUEBEC               
INTO NORTHERN LAKE SUPERIOR WAS PRODUCING LIGHT NE TO N WINDS. AS               
THE RIDGE MOVES OFF TO THE EAST ON THURSDAY...SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL               
INCREASE ON LAKE SUPERIOR WITH WINDS TO NEAR 30 KT BY THURSDAY NIGHT            
INTO EARLY FRIDAY. A STRONG SURFACE LOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE TOWARDS             
THE UPPER GREAT LAKES ON SATURDAY. DEPENDING ON THE TRACK AND                   
TIMING...GALE FORCE WINDS COULD DEVELOP FROM LATE SATURDAY INTO                 
SUNDAY.                                                                         
&&                                                                              
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                        
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHORT TERM...DLG                                                                
LONG TERM...AJ/MRC                                                              
AVIATION...VOSS                                                                 
MARINE...DLG                                                                    
</pre> mi                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI                                             
1152 PM EST WED DEC 19 2007                                                     
.AVIATION...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINING TRAPPED BELOW INVERSION                
LEADING TO WIDESPREAD MVFR STRATUS DECK ACROSS THE TAF SITES THIS               
MORNING...ESPECIALLY OVER KAPN AND KPLN. MIST FORMATION A LITTLE                
SLOW GETTING GOING THIS EVENING AND HAVE BACKED OFF THIS POSSIBILITY            
SOMEWHAT...ONLY SHOWING A SLIGHT DROP IN VISIBILITIES. HAVE GONE A              
LITTLE MORE OPTIMISTIC TOMORROW...HAVING SKIES SCATTER OUT DURING               
THE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON...LEADING TO VFR CONDITIONS. WINDS WILL             
REMAIN LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT...BECOMING LIGHT SOUTHEAST                    
THURSDAY.                                                                       
MSB                                                                             
&&                                                                              
.UPDATE...ISSUED 955 PM                                                         
PER 11U-3.9U SATELLITE IMAGERY...EXPANSIVE SUB 2KFT STRATUS DECK                
OVER THE NORTHERN LAKES REGION THIS EVENING AS REMNANT LOW LEVEL                
MOISTURE (WITH SOME ADDITIONAL NORTHWEST FLOW MOISTURE FLUX FROM THE            
BIG LAKES) REMAINS TRAPPED BELOW STRENGTHENING SUBSIDENCE INVERSION.            
JUST ENOUGH OVER WATER INSTABILITY TO PRODUCE SCATTERED FLURRIES                
OVER FAVORED NORTHWEST FLOW AREAS OF NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN.                   
HOWEVER...EXPECT THIS TO DIMINISH DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS AS              
WAA OVERSPREADS THE LAKES. EXPECT CLOUD SHIELD TO PRETTY MUCH REMAIN            
STATUS QUO OVER MUCH OF THE AREA...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF FAR SOUTH              
PARTS OF THE AREA WHERE MODEL PROGS SHOW JUST ENOUGH DRYING TO                  
POTENTIALLY SCOUR OUT SOME OF THE CLOUD DECK. NOCTURNAL TEMPERATURE             
RESPONSE RATHER SLOW ONCE AGAIN THIS EVENING...WITH TEMPERATURES                
SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER THAN INITIALLY PROGGED. GIVEN THIS SLOWER                
THAN ANTICIPATED DROP...WILL GO AHEAD AND BUMP TEMPERATURES UP A                
COUPLE DEGREES ACROSS THE BOARD. OTHERWISE...STILL EXPECTING                    
PATCHY/AREAS OF FOG DEVELOPMENT WITH FURTHER BOUNDARY LAYER COOLING.            
RECENT BELLAIRE OBSERVATION THAT TEMPORARY DROPPED TO A QUARTER MILE            
IN FOG ADDS CONFIDENCE TO THIS SCENARIO. BESIDES AFOREMENTIONED                 
TEMPERATURE ADJUSTMENT...REST OF FORECAST IN GREAT SHAPE WITH LITTLE            
CHANGES WARRANTED.                                                              
UPDATED GRIDS/NEARSHORES/ZONES OUT SHORTLY.                                     
MSB                                                                             
&&                                                                              
.DISCUSSION...ISSUED 400 PM                                                     
LATEST RUC ANALYSIS AND VIS/IR/WV/RADAR IMAGERY SHOW SHORTWAVE                  
TROUGHING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WITH AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW                 
MOVING ACROSS SE ONTARIO.  WEAK SURFACE TROUGH EMANATING FROM THIS              
LOW IS EXTENDING ACROSS THE STRAITS REGION...BUT APPEARS TO BE                  
LOOSING ITS INFLUENCE OVERALL ACROSS NORTHERN MICHIGAN.  CONVERGENCE            
ALONG THIS TROUGH AND GENERAL CYCLONIC FLOW HAS HELPED MAINTAIN IFR             
TO MVFR CLOUD DECK ACROSS THE AREA...BUT SHALLOW AND MARGINAL                   
OVER-LAKE INSTABILITY HAS NOT BEEN ENOUGH TO GENERATE LAKE EFFECT               
SNOW SHOWERS WITHIN NW FLOW REGIMES.  RADAR RETURNS ARE REALLY                  
SPOTTY AND LIGHT AT THIS HOUR WITH PERHAPS ONLY FLURRIES OR EVEN                
LIGHT DRIZZLE PRESENT AS SFC TEMPS HAVE WARMED ABOVE FREEZING THIS              
AFTERNOON.  SURFACE RIDGE AXIS UPSTREAM OVER WISCONSIN WILL HAVE ITS            
SIGHTS SET ON NORTHERN MICHIGAN OVERNIGHT...BUT STILL PLENTY OF LOW             
CLOUDS AND FOG RESIDE FROM NORTHERN MICHIGAN ON WEST TO THE RIDGE               
AXIS.  LOW LEVEL CLOUDS CLEAR OUT TO THE WEST OF THE RIDGE                      
AXIS...BUT MID-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION CLOUDS ALREADY PUSHING EAST INTO            
THE UPPER MIDWEST.  CLOUDS AND TEMPS ARE THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS             
TONIGHT.                                                                        
TONIGHT...SURFACE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH OFF TO THE EAST INTO                
THE NEW ENGLAND STATES WHILE THE LOW LEVEL RIDGE AXIS BUILDS IN                 
ACROSS NORTHERN MICHIGAN OVERNIGHT.  PRIOR TO THE ARRIVAL OF THE                
RIDGE AXIS...LIGHT NORTHWEST WINDS COMBINED WITH SHALLOW OVER-WATER             
INSTABILITY (LAKE-900MB TEMP DIFFERENCE AROUND -10C) WILL SPELL SCT             
LAKE EFFECT FLURRIES IN THE SNOWBELTS DURING THE EVENING.                       
OTHERWISE...INCREASING SHORTWAVE RIDGING ALOFT WILL PROMOTE DRYING              
IN THE MID-LEVELS AND DECREASING INVERSION HEIGHTS.  LOW LEVEL                  
MOISTURE REALLY DOES NOT HAVE ANYWHERE TO GO OVERNIGHT SINCE THE                
MOISTURE IS TRAPPED BENEATH THE INVERSION AND LOW LEVEL ADVECTIONS              
WILL BE RATHER LIGHT.  NAM12 925-850MB RH DETAILS SOME DRYING TAKING            
PLACE IN THE WESTERN ZONES...BUT THAT MAY BE A FUNCTION OF LOWERING             
INVERSION HEIGHTS AND NOT INDICATIVE OF THE ACTUAL AMOUNT OF LOW                
CLOUDS THAT ARE PRESENT.  PLENTY OF LOW CLOUDS UPSTREAM NEAR THE                
SURFACE RIDGE AXIS ACROSS WISCONSIN...IN ADDITION TO ONSHORE AND                
UPSLOPE FLOW WITH THE NW WINDS AND A LINGERING LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE            
AXIS THAT SETS UP ACROSS NORTHEAST LOWER AND EASTERN UPPER...AND                
EVAPORATIVE COOLING AT THE TOP OF THE LOW LEVEL MOIST LAYER SUPPORTS            
GOING MOSTLY CLOUDY TO CLOUDY THE ENTIRE NIGHT...WITH LOWERING OF               
THE LOW LEVEL CLOUD BASE.  WITH COOLING OF THE BL AND ADDED MOISTURE            
TO THE BL FROM ABOVE FREEZING SURFACE TEMPS THE PAST TWO                        
AFTERNOONS...PATCHY FOG SHOULD DEVELOP POSSIBLY BECOMING MORE                   
WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN DEPENDING UPON HOW MUCH CLOUD              
BASES LOWER. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER TEENS NEAR CAD AND HTL              
TO THE MID 20S ALONG THE GREAT LAKES SHORELINES.                                
MPC                                                                             
THURSDAY...WEAK CONVERGENCE AXIS ACROSS NRN LAKE HURON WILL WANE AS             
SFC RIDGE AXIS SLIDES EAST OF THE REGION IN THE MORNING. TRAPPED LOW            
CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROUGH MAY BREAK APART FOR A BRIEF TIME             
IN THE MORNING...BUT AS WINDS TURN AROUND TO THE SOUTH WITH                     
CONTINUING SHALLOW OVERLAKE INSTABILITY...CLOUDS SHOULD FILL BACK IN            
ACROSS EASTERN UPPER. ELSEWHERE...SHALLOW/SUB 1500KFT MOISTURE WITH             
ADDED SFC MOISTURE FROM SNOWMELT...WILL KEEP AREAS OF FOG AND LOW               
CLOUD AROUND FOR A GOOD DEAL OF THE MORNING. WONDERING HOW MUCH OF              
THE LOW CLOUD AND FOG WILL ACTUALLY GET TRAPPED IN FOR MUCH OF THE              
DAY. THIS ONE IS A TOUGH CALL. THERE WILL BE 925 MB WARM ADVECTION              
THAT INCREASES THROUGH THE DAY...AND WILL LIKELY BRING SOME PARTLY              
CLOUDY SKIES TO THE SW CWA BY AFTERNOON. OVERALL...BELIEVE THAT A               
MOSTLY CLOUDY FORECAST WITH LINGERING AREAS OF FOG INTO THE EARLY               
AFTERNOON IS THE BEST CALL...ESPECIALLY WITH MID TO UPPER LEVEL                 
CLOUDS ADVANCING ITO THE CWA IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS AGAIN IN THE               
LOW TO MIDDLE 30S.                                                              
THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH THE CONTINUED MILD TEMPERATURES...MORE                    
SNOWMELT WILL CONTINUE TO CREATE QUITE THE SOUPY BL. WOULD NOT BE               
SURPRISED TO SEE AT LIGHT FOG NEVER REALLY ERODING FROM THURSDAY                
AFTERNOON...AND JUST CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. DIFFICULT TO                 
DISCERN HOW MUCH MID/UPPER CLOUD WILL BE AROUND. MID LEVEL WEAK WARM            
ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE (290-295K) PERSISTS THROUGH THE                    
NIGHT...BUT WEAK MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE DEPARTS EAST BY 12Z WITH SOME              
MID LEVEL RIDGING. THIS COULD ALLOW FOR SOME DRIER AIR ALOFT TO                 
ARRIVE LATE...HELPING TO PROMOTE THICKENING FOG. EITHER WAY...FOG IN            
SOME FASHION WILL BE AROUND...AND WHETHER OR NOT AREAS OF/PATCHY IS             
USED CAN BE SAVED FOR TOMORROW`S FORECAST PACKAGE. AM NOT EXPECTING             
MUCH OF A TEMP FALL UNDER THE CLOUDS/WARM ADVECTION...LOWS GENERALLY            
IN THE MIDDLE 20S CAN BE EXPECTED.                                              
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...HEIGHTS CONTINUE TO RISE IN THE MID LEVELS            
AS SRN/NRN JET STREAM ENERGY RIPS INTO THE ROCKIES. THE SOUTHERLY               
FLOW ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES INCREASES RESULTING IN BETTER/STRONGER              
WARM AND MOIST AIR ADVECTION. WINDS OF DEEPER H8-H5 MOISTURE SWINGS             
THROUGH THE CWA FRIDAY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS NO INDICATIVE OF ANY                 
MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION...BUT RATHER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE THICKENING             
TO NEAR 750MB...ALL WARMER THAN -10C. THIS IS LOOKING MORE AND MORE             
LIKE A DRIZZLE SCENARIO...HINTED AT YESTERDAY. WILL BRING AREAS OF              
DRIZZLE INTO THE REGION STARTING FRIDAY AFTERNOON...THEN PROGRESSING            
THROUGH ALL OF THE CWA FRIDAY NIGHT. OF COURSE...FOG WILL ACCOMPANY             
THE DRIZZLE. AS FAR AS TEMPS...MID TO UPPER 30S FOR HIGHS ON FRIDAY             
WITH NEAR STEADY TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE NIGHT. FEEL AS IF ALL                 
AREAS WILL BE ABOVE 32F...SO NO NEED ATTM TO MENTION FREEZING                   
DRIZZLE.                                                                        
SATURDAY...THERE ARE SOME COMMONALITIES IN THE MODELS IN THIS TIME              
PERIOD. NRN AND SRN STREAM ENERGY WORK THEIR WAY NEAR THE                       
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...REMAINING SEPARATE SYSTEMS WITH NO APPARENT                
PHASING (YET?). THE MORNING...IF TIMING IS CORRECT...WILL START OFF             
DRIZZLY AND FOGGY...BEFORE SFC LOW PRESSURE WORKS INTO THE WESTERN              
GREAT LAKES...ALONG WITH FORCING FROM SHORTWAVES. WILL KEEP THIS                
PERIOD SORT OF GENERAL. WILL GO WITH LIKELY RAIN FOR NRN LOWER AS               
AIR MASS LOOKS TO STAY WARM. LEFT A MIX IN FOR EASTERN UPPER...AND              
IN LINE WITH NEIGHBORING OFFICES. THESE DETAILS WILL BECOME CLEARER             
TOMORROW.                                                                       
SATURDAY NIGHT ONWARD...BOY...STILL LOOKING LIKE A COMMON SOLUTION              
BETWEEN THE MODELS IS JUST A LITTLE TOO FAR AWAY. OVERALL CONSENSUS             
IS TO STAY WITH THE ECMWF...AS THE GFS KEEPS THE TWO JET BRANCHES               
SEPARATE. THE 18Z NAM HAS NOW ALLOWED FOR THE TWO BRANCHES TO PHASE             
TOGETHER...SUCH AS THE 12Z ECMWF. THIS SCENARIO WOULD PULL THE                  
EXPECTED STRONG STORM SYSTEM FURTHER BACK TO THE NW...WHILE RAPIDLY             
DEEPENING THE SFC LOW. AREAS OF RAIN WOULD PERSIST ACROSS THE NE CWA            
INTO THE EVENING WHILE STRONG COLD ADVECTION BLOWS IN FROM THE SW.              
THERE ARE JUST TOO MANY UNCERTAINTIES STILL. FOR AT LEAST ONE MORE              
TIME...WILL GO WITH RAIN AND SNOW IN THE EVENING...MOST AREAS...THEN            
CHANGE TO ALL SNOW OVERNIGHT WITH WINDS BECOMING QUITE BRISK                    
SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT). EXPECT CHANGES TO THIS FORECAST AS MORE                   
DETAILED TIMING/STRENGTH AND EVOLUTION OF THIS STORM WILL COME IN               
DUE TIME. DID INCREASE CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION TO LIKELY. THAT                
LOOKS LIKE THE SAFEST BET. THE POTENTIAL FOR HAZARDOUS TRAVEL IS                
CERTAINLY STILL THERE OVER THE WEEKEND PRIOR TO THE CHRISTMAS                   
HOLIDAY...SO STAY TUNED FOR THE DETAILS TO ARRIVE IN LATER                      
FORECASTS. A RATHER BRIEF PERIOD OF LAKE EFFECT SNOWS ARE EXPECTED              
ON THE BACKSIDE OF THIS STORM SYSTEM AS IT PULLS EAST SUNDAY NIGHT              
INTO MONDAY. QUITE A BIT OF DRY AIR IS ACTUALLY FORECAST TO SPREAD              
IN BY MONDAY NIGHT.   SMD                                                       
&&                                                                              
.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
MI...NONE.                                                                      
LM...NONE.                                                                      
LH...NONE.                                                                      
LS...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</pre> mi                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO                                            
615 AM CST FRI DEC 21 2007                                                      
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
LOTS OF WX CONCERNS FOR THE NXT 48 HRS. PRIMARY ISSUE FOR TDA...AT              
LEAST FOR THIS MRNG...IS DENSE FOG THAT CURRENTLY BLANKETS ENTR                 
FCST AREA. WITH ONLY A MODEST INCR IN MIXING DURG THE DAY...AND                 
WITH SFC/LO LVL TRAJECTORIES CONTINUING TO PUSH HIER DWPT AIR INTO              
REGION...THINK IMPROVEMENT WILL BE FAIRLY SLOW. PREVIOUSLY ISSUED               
DENSE FOG ADVISORY RUNS UNTIL 16Z AND HAVE OPTED TO NOT EXTEND IT               
ATTM AS CLIMO FAVORS SM INCR IN VSBYS...ALBEIT MODEST...IN THE                  
15-16Z TIME FRAME.                                                              
IF ST HOLDS ENTR DAY AS SUGGESTED BY INVERSION ON FCST                          
SNDGS...TEMPS ARE GOING TO STRUGGLE TO WRM. BASED ON YSTDAS                     
DIURNAL RECOVERY HV GIVEN MOST AREAS A MAX TEMP ABT 10 DEGREES ABV              
GOING READINGS.                                                                 
ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH AREA SAT AND SAT                  
NGT. SPEED AND INTENSITY OF SYS CONTS TO VARY A BIT FROM MODEL TO               
MODEL AND FROM RUN TO RUN. HWVR...IT APRS THAT GFS IS TOO SLOW                  
WITH THE SYSTEM...AND MODEL CONSENSUS OF                                        
WRF/NAM...ECMWF...SREF...AND CANADIAN ALL SEEMS TO SUGGEST LEANING              
TWD A MORE PROGRESSIVE SOLN. FCST FROM 18Z SAT-12Z SUN GENLY                    
FOLLOWS A SREF/WRF-NAM BLEND FOR MOST ELEMENTS.                                 
ALTHO INITIALLY ON SAT MRNG MSTR WILL BE LIMITED...INCRG S FLOW                 
AHD OF TROF SHUD RAPIDLY MOISTEN THE AMS AOB 500 MB...AND PCPN                  
SHUD BGN TO BLOSSOM AS UVV ASSOC WITH TROF WORKS INTO MSVLY.                    
COLDER AIR WILL THEN WORK EWD...CHGG RAIN TO SNOW OVR W COUNTIES                
DURG THE AFTN...AND OVR THE IL COUNTIES ON SAT EVE. ALL MODELS                  
KEEP SYSTEM OPEN...WITH NO WELL-DEFINED SFC OR 850 MB LOW TRACK ON              
WHICH TO BASE SNOW POTENTIAL. USING CONSENSUS QPF AND MODEL SNDGS               
TO TIME CHGOVER TO SNOW SUGGESTS BEST CHC FOR ACCUM SNOW WILL BE                
OVR N/W COUNTIES...RUFLY FROM N OF COU TO NR UIN. SINCE SYSTEM IS               
MOVING SO FAST DON`T THINK SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE                       
EXTREMELY HIGH...BUT AM WORRIED ABT THE EFFECT OF VRY STG WNDS IN               
WAKE OF SYSTEM COMBINING WITH ANY SNOW THAT DOES ACCUMULATE. TO                 
HIGHLIGHT THE THREAT HV CONTD MENTION OF BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW              
IN AREAS THAT APPEAR TO HV A CHC OF OVER AN INCH OF                             
ACCUMULATION...AND WL ALSO EMPHASIZE THIS CONCERN IN HWO.                       
ALL PCPN WITH SYSTEM SHUD END BY 12Z SUN...ALTHO GUSTY WINDS SHUD               
CONT THRUOUT THE DAY...SPCLY IN N SECTIONS OF THE FA.                           
TRUETT                                                                          
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
FOR THE 12Z TAFS...SHOULD ONLY SEE A SLOW IMPROVEMENT IN VSBYS AND              
A SLOW RISE IN CEILING HGTS BGNG AT 15Z TO 16Z WITH SLOWLY INCRSG               
SELY SFC WNDS. WITH FCTS SOUNDINGS SHOWING BNDRY LYR MOISTURE                   
TRAPPED BLW AN INVERSION THRU THE DAY THE STRATUS CEILING SHOULD                
CONT. THE LATEST RUC FCST DOES SHOW LWRG RH IN THE 925 MB LYR BY                
21Z FRI OVR COU. WILL FCST BKN020 IN COU AT 21Z...BUT WILL KEEP AN              
OVERCAST CEILING AT 700 FT IN UIN...STL AND SUS THRU THE AFTN HRS.              
WILL IMPROVE THE VSBYS TO 2SM BR BY 16Z...AND THEN TO 4SM BR AT                 
18Z FRI AT THE TAF SITES. VSBYS SHOULD CONT TO IMPROVE THIS EVNG WITH           
THE STRATUS LYR CONTG TO SLOWLY RISE WITH MDLS DEPICTING INCRSG                 
LOW LVL S-SELY WNDS...ALTHOUGH THE BNDRY LYR REMAINS VERY MOIST.                
GKS                                                                             
&&                                                                              
.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
MO...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR AUDRAIN-               
     BOONE-CALLAWAY-COLE-CRAWFORD-FRANKLIN-GASCONADE-IRON-                      
     JEFFERSON-KNOX-LEWIS-LINCOLN-MADISON-MARION-MONITEAU-MONROE-               
     MONTGOMERY-OSAGE-PIKE-RALLS-REYNOLDS-SHELBY-ST. CHARLES-ST.                
     FRANCOIS-ST. LOUIS-ST. LOUIS CITY-STE. GENEVIEVE-WARREN-                   
     WASHINGTON.                                                                
IL...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR ADAMS IL-              
     BOND IL-BROWN IL-CALHOUN IL-CLINTON IL-FAYETTE IL-GREENE IL-               
     JERSEY IL-MACOUPIN IL-MADISON IL-MARION IL-MONROE IL-                      
     MONTGOMERY IL-PIKE IL-RANDOLPH IL-ST. CLAIR IL-WASHINGTON                  
     IL.                                                                        
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
WFO LSX                                                                         
</pre> mo                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO                           
1142 PM CST THU DEC 20 2007                                                     
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
/1042 PM CST THU DEC 20 2007/                                                   
WILL GO AHEAD AND ISSUE A DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR REST OF FORECAST               
AREA EXCEPT FOR THE KANSAS COUNTIES AND CASS AND BATES COUNTIES IN              
MISSOURI.  WILL START THE ADDITIONAL COUNTIES AS OF MIDNIGHT.                   
CURRENT FOG CONTINUES TO SPREAD WESTWARD AT AROUND 5 KTS. DEEPER                
MOISTURE CAN BE SEEN ON SATELLITE SPREADING INTO NORTHWEST                      
MISSOURI...WHILE FOG IS SHALLOWER BUT STILL STILL PRODUCING LOW                 
VSBYS IN SOUTHWEST MISSOURI. THINK THE SLIGHT INCREASE IN THE LOW               
LEVEL WINDS LATER TONIGHT WILL HAVE THE MOST IMPACT ON THIS                     
SHALLOWER MOISTURE SO WILL LEAVE SOUTHWEST COUNTIES OUT OF THE                  
ADVISORY AT THIS POINT.                                                         
PC                                                                              
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION...                                                             
/850 PM CST THU DEC 20 2007/                                                    
DENSE FOG CONTINUES TO SPREAD TO THE WEST UNDER INFLUENCE OF A VERY             
WEAK SURFACE FLOW AROUND LOW PRESSURE TROUGH IN EASTERN MISSOURI AT             
THIS TIME. MODELS SHOW THIS TROUGH BREAKING DOWN AS STRONGER                    
TROUGHING IN HIGH PLAINS STARTS TO TAKE SHAPE OVERNIGHT WITH LOW                
LEVEL FLOW BECOMING SOUTHEAST. THIS SHOULD SLOW THE WESTWARD                    
PROGRESSION AFTER MIDNIGHT BUT MAY SPREAD IT MORE INTO NORTHWEST                
MISSOURI...WHICH IS ALREADY EXPERIENCING PATCHY DENSE FOG UNDER THE             
CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. BOTH NAM AND RUC 950 MB DEPICTIONS OF              
THIS MOISTURE WOULD SUGGEST IT MAKING TO NEAR THE MISSOURI KANSAS               
BORDER IN NORTHWEST MISSOURI OVERNIGHT AND INTO EASTERN PORTIONS OF             
THE KANSAS CITY METRO AREA.  FOR NOW...WILL GO AHEAD AND EXPAND THE             
ADVISORY TO INCLUDE AREAS THAT ARE SEEING THE WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG              
SPREADING IN AT THIS TIME...AND KEEP AN EYE ON THE TRENDS...ADDING              
COUNTIES AS NEEDED.                                                             
PC                                                                              
/720 PM CST THU DEC 20 2007/                                                    
HAVE MADE SEVERAL PHONE CALLS TO AREAS JUST WEST OF WHERE WE HAD FOG            
ADVISORY IN EFFECT...AND THEY ARE VERIFYING THE SATELLITE TREND OF              
THE LOWER VISIBILITIES SPREADING BACK TO THE WEST. WILL EXPAND THE              
DENSE FOG ADVISORY FURTHER TO THE WEST TO COVER.  ESPECIALLY                    
CONCERNED FOR THE INTERSTATES INCLUDING I70 FROM CONCORDIA EASTWARD             
AND I35 IN HARRISON COUNTY.                                                     
PC                                                                              
/414 PM CST THU DEC 20 2007/                                                    
FORECAST CONCERNS FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE FORECAST ARE TWO FOLD.              
TONIGHT WE ARE LOOKING AT CONTINUED DENSE FOG ACROSS AREAS FROM                 
NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTH EAST MISSOURI SOUTH THROUGH CENTRAL                     
MISSOURI. THE SECOND FORECAST CONCERN IS THE WINTER STORM EXPECTED              
THIS WEEKEND.                                                                   
MOISTURE TRAPPED IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER...AND LIGHT WINDS ASSOCIATED             
WITH A SURFACE TROUGH...HAVE CONSPIRED TODAY TO KEEP THE EASTERN                
THIRD OF THE FORECAST AREA UNDER DENSE FOG. CONDITIONS ARE NOT                  
EXPECTED TO CHANGE ACROSS THAT AREA OVERNIGHT. SURFACE TROUGH WILL              
SLIDE EAST A LITTLE...BUT ONLY ENOUGH TO ALLOW SURFACE WINDS TO                 
SWITCH TO THE SOUTHEAST...ADVECTING MORE MOISTURE IN AT THE SURFACE.            
HAVE GONE WITH A DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON               
THROUGH 10 AM FRIDAY MORNING AS A RESULT. FARTHER WEST SKIES CLEARED            
TODAY AND THE FOG THAT SET IN DISSIPATED RATHER QUICKLY. TONIGHT                
WILL SEE THE INVERSION TRAP ABUNDANT MOISTURE AT THE SURFACE                    
AGAIN...BUT WINDS JUST ABOVE THE INVERSION WILL STAY A LITTLE HIGHER            
IN RESPONSE TO THE DEEPENING TROUGH IN THE WESTERN CONUS. EXPECT                
THIS SLIGHTLY HIGHER WIND ABOVE THE INVERSION TO INDUCE ENOUGH                  
MIXING OVERNIGHT TO PREVENT THE FOG FROM BECOMING AS DENSE ACROSS               
THE WESTERN TWO THIRDS OF THE FORECAST AREA. IN FACT...HAVE KEPT FOG            
OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR AREAS FROM THE KANSAS CITY METRO ON SOUTH AS            
MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW THE SURFACE MOISTURE TO BE PARTICULARLY                    
SHALLOW. THIS WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED OVERNIGHT THOUGH IN CASE                  
RADIATION FOG BEGIN TO DEVELOP UNDER THE CLEAR SKIES.                           
ATTENTION THEN TURNS TOWARDS FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY AS THE                   
DEEPENING WEST CONUS TROUGH SWEEPS EAST THROUGH THE PLAINS. GFS AND             
ECMWF HAVE CONTINUED TO CONVERGE TOWARDS ONE SOLUTION FOR THIS                  
WEEKENDS SYSTEM...AND THE NAM-WRF SEEMS TO BE MOVING IN THE SAME                
DIRECTION. THE EARLY WEEKEND SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL ACTUALLY CONSIST             
OF A NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAM WAVES PHASING AS THEY THEY MOVE               
THROUGH MISSOURI. THERE IS A STRONG SHOT OF COLD AIR THAT WILL                  
QUICKLY SPREAD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL              
BE BRINGING THE BULK OF ITS MOISTURE FROM THE PACIFIC...SO THE                  
EXPECTATION IS THAT MUCH OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL BE POST                      
FRONTAL...IN THE DEFORMATION ZONE BEHIND THE SURFACE LOW.                       
WITH THE SOLUTIONS FROM THE GFS/ECMWF/AND NAM-WRF ALL CONVERGING I              
HAVE NOT HAD TO MAKE MANY ADJUSTMENTS TO THE GOING FORECAST FOR                 
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. DID KEEP SOME LIKELY POPS ACROSS THE                
EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA FOR SATURDAY EVENING AS THE WEIGHT            
OF THE CONSENSUS SLOWS THE SYSTEM A LITTLE. OTHERWISE...EXPECT MUCH             
OF THE PRECIPITATION FALLING FROM THE SKY TO BE SNOW BY THE                     
AFTERNOON HOURS. FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET ARE GOING TO BE MINOR AS               
THE SPEED WITH WHICH THE COLD AIR RUSHES IN SHOULD PRECLUDE MUCH                
OPPORTUNITY FOR MIXED PRECIP. CURRENT SNOWFALL TOTALS STILL LOOK                
RANGE BETWEEN 1 TO 4 INCHES OF ACCUMULATION...IN PART DUE TO THE                
PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF THE SYSTEM. ALSO...WIND BEHIND THE FRONT LOOKS            
TO BE SUSTAINED AS HIGH AS 20 TO 30 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS.                      
THEREFORE...ADDED BLOWING SNOW TO THE FORECAST WEATHER FOR THE DAY              
SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT.                                                    
CUTTER                                                                          
EXTENDED...(SUNDAY-THURSDAY)                                                    
THE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN SHORTWAVE BRANCHES WILL CONTINUE TO PHASE             
AT THE START OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST ON SUNDAY. THE PHASING SYSTEM             
WILL QUICKLY DEPART TO THE NORTHEAST...WITH SHORTWAVE                           
RIDGING/SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SPREADING EAST IN ITS WAKE.                       
A SERIES OF PACIFIC SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WILL CONTINUE TO HEAD EAST                
THROUGH THE MEAN FLOW ACROSS THE CONUS NEXT WEEK. MODEL AGREEMENT               
DIMINISHES QUICKLY BY EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH REGARD TO THESE SHORTWAVE            
FEATURES. AS SUCH...THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE FOR PRECIPITATION                   
CHANCES. IF ONE MODEL WERE TO BE CHOSEN OVER ANOTHER...WOULD HAVE TO            
SIDE WITH THE MORE CONSISTENT ECMWF. THE ECMWF STILL BRINGS A                   
CLIPPER SYSTEM FURTHER SOUTH THAN THE GFS ON MONDAY...BUT WITH                  
LITTLE MOISTURE TO WORK WITH MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION IS NOT                    
EXPECTED FOR OUR NECK OF THE WOODS. THE NEXT IN THE SERIES OF                   
PROGRESSIVE SHORTWAVES IS PROGGED TO AFFECT THE REGION TOWARD                   
WEDNESDAY.                                                                      
STOFLET                                                                         
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
FOR THE 06Z TAFS...WILL BRING IN THE DENSER FOG AT 10Z IN THE KANSAS            
CITY AREA. COULD BE AS EARLY AS 09Z...BUT AM SEEING SOME SIGNS OF               
THE WESTWARD PROGRESSION SLOWING INTO THE METRO AREA. FOR                       
KSTJ...VSBYS MAY BOUNCE AROUND FOR A WHILE UNTIL THE DENSE FOG AREA             
CAN MOVE IN. WILL JUST TEMPO THE QUARTER MILE VISIBILITIES AT THIS              
POINT...AND LET MIDNIGHT SHIFT FINE TUNE AS TIMING IS MORE CERTAIN.             
PC                                                                              
&&                                                                              
.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
MO...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM FRIDAY FOR MOZ003-MOZ004-MOZ005-            
     MOZ006-MOZ007-MOZ008-MOZ013-MOZ014-MOZ015-MOZ016-MOZ017-                   
     MOZ022-MOZ023-MOZ024-MOZ025-MOZ030-MOZ031-MOZ032-MOZ033-                   
     MOZ038-MOZ039-MOZ040-MOZ044-MOZ045-MOZ046-MOZ054.                          
     DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM FRIDAY FOR MOZ001-MOZ002-MOZ011-            
     MOZ012-MOZ020-MOZ021-MOZ028-MOZ029-MOZ037.                                 
KS...NONE.                                                                      
$$                                                                              
</pre> mo                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTION                                           
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO                           
1042 PM CST THU DEC 20 2007                                                     
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
WILL GO AHEAD AND ISSUE A DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR REST OF FORECAST               
AREA EXCEPT FOR MIAMI AND LINN COUNTIES IN KANSAS AND CASS AND BATES            
COUNTIES IN MISSOURI.  WILL START THE ADDITIONAL COUNTIES AS OF                 
MIDNIGHT. CURRENT FOG CONTINUES TO SPREAD WESTWARD AT AROUND 5 KTS.             
DEEPER MOISTURE CAN BE SEEN ON SATELLITE SPREADING INTO NORTHWEST               
MISSOURI...WHILE FOG IS SHALLOWER BUT STILL STILL PRODUCING LOW                 
VSBYS IN SOUTHWEST MISSOURI. THINK THE SLIGHT INCREASE IN THE LOW               
LEVEL WINDS LATER TONIGHT WILL HAVE THE MOST IMPACT ON THIS                     
SHALLOWER MOISTURE SO WILL LEAVE EXTREME SOUTHWEST COUNTIES OUT OF              
THE ADVISORY AT THIS POINT.                                                     
PC                                                                              
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION...                                                             
/850 PM CST THU DEC 20 2007/                                                    
DENSE FOG CONTINUES TO SPREAD TO THE WEST UNDER INFLUENCE OF A VERY             
WEAK SURFACE FLOW AROUND LOW PRESSURE TROUGH IN EASTERN MISSOURI AT             
THIS TIME. MODELS SHOW THIS TROUGH BREAKING DOWN AS STRONGER                    
TROUGHING IN HIGH PLAINS STARTS TO TAKE SHAPE OVERNIGHT WITH LOW                
LEVEL FLOW BECOMING SOUTHEAST. THIS SHOULD SLOW THE WESTWARD                    
PROGRESSION AFTER MIDNIGHT BUT MAY SPREAD IT MORE INTO NORTHWEST                
MISSOURI...WHICH IS ALREADY EXPERIENCING PATCHY DENSE FOG UNDER THE             
CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. BOTH NAM AND RUC 950 MB DEPICTIONS OF              
THIS MOISTURE WOULD SUGGEST IT MAKING TO NEAR THE MISSOURI KANSAS               
BORDER IN NORTHWEST MISSOURI OVERNIGHT AND INTO EASTERN PORTIONS OF             
THE KANSAS CITY METRO AREA.  FOR NOW...WILL GO AHEAD AND EXPAND THE             
ADVISORY TO INCLUDE AREAS THAT ARE SEEING THE WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG              
SPREADING IN AT THIS TIME...AND KEEP AN EYE ON THE TRENDS...ADDING              
COUNTIES AS NEEDED.                                                             
PC                                                                              
/720 PM CST THU DEC 20 2007/                                                    
HAVE MADE SEVERAL PHONE CALLS TO AREAS JUST WEST OF WHERE WE HAD FOG            
ADVISORY IN EFFECT...AND THEY ARE VERIFYING THE SATELLITE TREND OF              
THE LOWER VISIBILITIES SPREADING BACK TO THE WEST. WILL EXPAND THE              
DENSE FOG ADVISORY FURTHER TO THE WEST TO COVER.  ESPECIALLY                    
CONCERNED FOR THE INTERSTATES INCLUDING I70 FROM CONCORDIA EASTWARD             
AND I35 IN HARRISON COUNTY.                                                     
PC                                                                              
/414 PM CST THU DEC 20 2007/                                                    
FORECAST CONCERNS FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE FORECAST ARE TWO FOLD.              
TONIGHT WE ARE LOOKING AT CONTINUED DENSE FOG ACROSS AREAS FROM                 
NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTH EAST MISSOURI SOUTH THROUGH CENTRAL                     
MISSOURI. THE SECOND FORECAST CONCERN IS THE WINTER STORM EXPECTED              
THIS WEEKEND.                                                                   
MOISTURE TRAPPED IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER...AND LIGHT WINDS ASSOCIATED             
WITH A SURFACE TROUGH...HAVE CONSPIRED TODAY TO KEEP THE EASTERN                
THIRD OF THE FORECAST AREA UNDER DENSE FOG. CONDITIONS ARE NOT                  
EXPECTED TO CHANGE ACROSS THAT AREA OVERNIGHT. SURFACE TROUGH WILL              
SLIDE EAST A LITTLE...BUT ONLY ENOUGH TO ALLOW SURFACE WINDS TO                 
SWITCH TO THE SOUTHEAST...ADVECTING MORE MOISTURE IN AT THE SURFACE.            
HAVE GONE WITH A DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON               
THROUGH 10 AM FRIDAY MORNING AS A RESULT. FARTHER WEST SKIES CLEARED            
TODAY AND THE FOG THAT SET IN DISSIPATED RATHER QUICKLY. TONIGHT                
WILL SEE THE INVERSION TRAP ABUNDANT MOISTURE AT THE SURFACE                    
AGAIN...BUT WINDS JUST ABOVE THE INVERSION WILL STAY A LITTLE HIGHER            
IN RESPONSE TO THE DEEPENING TROUGH IN THE WESTERN CONUS. EXPECT                
THIS SLIGHTLY HIGHER WIND ABOVE THE INVERSION TO INDUCE ENOUGH                  
MIXING OVERNIGHT TO PREVENT THE FOG FROM BECOMING AS DENSE ACROSS               
THE WESTERN TWO THIRDS OF THE FORECAST AREA. IN FACT...HAVE KEPT FOG            
OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR AREAS FROM THE KANSAS CITY METRO ON SOUTH AS            
MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW THE SURFACE MOISTURE TO BE PARTICULARLY                    
SHALLOW. THIS WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED OVERNIGHT THOUGH IN CASE                  
RADIATION FOG BEGIN TO DEVELOP UNDER THE CLEAR SKIES.                           
ATTENTION THEN TURNS TOWARDS FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY AS THE                   
DEEPENING WEST CONUS TROUGH SWEEPS EAST THROUGH THE PLAINS. GFS AND             
ECMWF HAVE CONTINUED TO CONVERGE TOWARDS ONE SOLUTION FOR THIS                  
WEEKENDS SYSTEM...AND THE NAM-WRF SEEMS TO BE MOVING IN THE SAME                
DIRECTION. THE EARLY WEEKEND SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL ACTUALLY CONSIST             
OF A NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAM WAVES PHASING AS THEY THEY MOVE               
THROUGH MISSOURI. THERE IS A STRONG SHOT OF COLD AIR THAT WILL                  
QUICKLY SPREAD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL              
BE BRINGING THE BULK OF ITS MOISTURE FROM THE PACIFIC...SO THE                  
EXPECTATION IS THAT MUCH OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL BE POST                      
FRONTAL...IN THE DEFORMATION ZONE BEHIND THE SURFACE LOW.                       
WITH THE SOLUTIONS FROM THE GFS/ECMWF/AND NAM-WRF ALL CONVERGING I              
HAVE NOT HAD TO MAKE MANY ADJUSTMENTS TO THE GOING FORECAST FOR                 
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. DID KEEP SOME LIKELY POPS ACROSS THE                
EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA FOR SATURDAY EVENING AS THE WEIGHT            
OF THE CONSENSUS SLOWS THE SYSTEM A LITTLE. OTHERWISE...EXPECT MUCH             
OF THE PRECIPITATION FALLING FROM THE SKY TO BE SNOW BY THE                     
AFTERNOON HOURS. FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET ARE GOING TO BE MINOR AS               
THE SPEED WITH WHICH THE COLD AIR RUSHES IN SHOULD PRECLUDE MUCH                
OPPORTUNITY FOR MIXED PRECIP. CURRENT SNOWFALL TOTALS STILL LOOK                
RANGE BETWEEN 1 TO 4 INCHES OF ACCUMULATION...IN PART DUE TO THE                
PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF THE SYSTEM. ALSO...WIND BEHIND THE FRONT LOOKS            
TO BE SUSTAINED AS HIGH AS 20 TO 30 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS.                      
THEREFORE...ADDED BLOWING SNOW TO THE FORECAST WEATHER FOR THE DAY              
SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT.                                                    
CUTTER                                                                          
EXTENDED...(SUNDAY-THURSDAY)                                                    
THE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN SHORTWAVE BRANCHES WILL CONTINUE TO PHASE             
AT THE START OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST ON SUNDAY. THE PHASING SYSTEM             
WILL QUICKLY DEPART TO THE NORTHEAST...WITH SHORTWAVE                           
RIDGING/SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SPREADING EAST IN ITS WAKE.                       
A SERIES OF PACIFIC SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WILL CONTINUE TO HEAD EAST                
THROUGH THE MEAN FLOW ACROSS THE CONUS NEXT WEEK. MODEL AGREEMENT               
DIMINISHES QUICKLY BY EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH REGARD TO THESE SHORTWAVE            
FEATURES. AS SUCH...THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE FOR PRECIPITATION                   
CHANCES. IF ONE MODEL WERE TO BE CHOSEN OVER ANOTHER...WOULD HAVE TO            
SIDE WITH THE MORE CONSISTENT ECMWF. THE ECMWF STILL BRINGS A                   
CLIPPER SYSTEM FURTHER SOUTH THAN THE GFS ON MONDAY...BUT WITH                  
LITTLE MOISTURE TO WORK WITH MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION IS NOT                    
EXPECTED FOR OUR NECK OF THE WOODS. THE NEXT IN THE SERIES OF                   
PROGRESSIVE SHORTWAVES IS PROGGED TO AFFECT THE REGION TOWARD                   
WEDNESDAY.                                                                      
STOFLET                                                                         
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
/535 PM CST THU DEC 20 2007/                                                    
FOR THE 00Z TAF CYCLE...SOUNDINGS SHOW ANOTHER INVERSION SETTING UP             
ACROSS THE KANSAS/MISSOURI BORDER REGION TONIGHT...WITH A MODEST AND            
MOIST SOUTHEAST SURFACE FLOW. HOWEVER...THE WIND JUST OFF THE                   
SURFACE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN A LITTLE STRONGER EARLY FRIDAY MORNING            
THAN IT WAS THIS MORNING. THOUGHTS ARE THAT THIS WILL KEEP THE                  
SURFACE LAYER MIXED A LITTLE MORE WITH THE DRY LAYER ABOVE                      
PREVENTING A DRASTIC DECREASE IN VISIBILITIES IN THE MORNING.                   
BIGGEST CONCERN WILL BE AT KSTJ WITH ITS SLIGHTLY LOWER ELEVATION               
ISOLATING IT A BIT MORE FROM THE EFFECTS OF DRIER AIR MIXING IN                 
OVER TOP.  WILL GO WITH A TEMPO CATEGORY FOR IFR CONDITIONS LATE                
TONIGHT AT THAT SITE.                                                           
PC                                                                              
&&                                                                              
.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
MO...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM FRIDAY FOR MOZ003-MOZ004-MOZ005-            
     MOZ006-MOZ007-MOZ008-MOZ013-MOZ014-MOZ015-MOZ016-MOZ017-                   
     MOZ022-MOZ023-MOZ024-MOZ025-MOZ030-MOZ031-MOZ032-MOZ033-                   
     MOZ038-MOZ039-MOZ040-MOZ044-MOZ045-MOZ046-MOZ054.                          
     DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM FRIDAY FOR MOZ001-MOZ002-MOZ011-            
     MOZ012-MOZ020-MOZ021-MOZ028-MOZ029-MOZ037.                                 
KS...NONE.                                                                      
$$                                                                              
</pre> mo                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO                           
850 PM CST THU DEC 20 2007                                                      
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
DENSE FOG CONTINUES TO SPREAD TO THE WEST UNDER INFLUENCE OF A VERY             
WEAK SURFACE FLOW AROUND LOW PRESSURE TROUGH IN EASTERN MISSOURI AT             
THIS TIME. MODELS SHOW THIS TROUGH BREAKING DOWN AS STRONGER                    
TROUGHING IN HIGH PLAINS STARTS TO TAKE SHAPE OVERNIGHT WITH LOW                
LEVEL FLOW BECOMING SOUTHEAST. THIS SHOULD SLOW THE WESTWARD                    
PROGRESSION AFTER MIDNIGHT BUT MAY SPREAD IT MORE INTO NORTHWEST                
MISSOURI...WHICH IS ALREADY EXPERIENCING PATCHY DENSE FOG UNDER THE             
CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. BOTH NAM AND RUC 950 MB DEPICTIONS OF              
THIS MOISTURE WOULD SUGGEST IT MAKING TO NEAR THE MISSOURI KANSAS               
BORDER IN NORTHWEST MISSOURI OVERNIGHT AND INTO EASTERN PORTIONS OF             
THE KANSAS CITY METRO AREA.  FOR NOW...WILL GO AHEAD AND EXPAND THE             
ADVISORY TO INCLUDE AREAS THAT ARE SEEING THE WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG              
SPREADING IN AT THIS TIME...AND KEEP AN EYE ON THE TRENDS...ADDING              
COUNTIES AS NEEDED.                                                             
PC                                                                              
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION...                                                             
/720 PM CST THU DEC 20 2007/                                                    
HAVE MADE SEVERAL PHONE CALLS TO AREAS JUST WEST OF WHERE WE HAD FOG            
ADVISORY IN EFFECT...AND THEY ARE VERIFYING THE SATELLITE TREND OF              
THE LOWER VISIBILITIES SPREADING BACK TO THE WEST. WILL EXPAND THE              
DENSE FOG ADVISORY FURTHER TO THE WEST TO COVER.  ESPECIALLY                    
CONCERNED FOR THE INTERSTATES INCLUDING I70 FROM CONCORDIA EASTWARD             
AND I35 IN HARRISON COUNTY.                                                     
PC                                                                              
/414 PM CST THU DEC 20 2007/                                                    
FORECAST CONCERNS FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE FORECAST ARE TWO FOLD.              
TONIGHT WE ARE LOOKING AT CONTINUED DENSE FOG ACROSS AREAS FROM                 
NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTH EAST MISSOURI SOUTH THROUGH CENTRAL                     
MISSOURI. THE SECOND FORECAST CONCERN IS THE WINTER STORM EXPECTED              
THIS WEEKEND.                                                                   
MOISTURE TRAPPED IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER...AND LIGHT WINDS ASSOCIATED             
WITH A SURFACE TROUGH...HAVE CONSPIRED TODAY TO KEEP THE EASTERN                
THIRD OF THE FORECAST AREA UNDER DENSE FOG. CONDITIONS ARE NOT                  
EXPECTED TO CHANGE ACROSS THAT AREA OVERNIGHT. SURFACE TROUGH WILL              
SLIDE EAST A LITTLE...BUT ONLY ENOUGH TO ALLOW SURFACE WINDS TO                 
SWITCH TO THE SOUTHEAST...ADVECTING MORE MOISTURE IN AT THE SURFACE.            
HAVE GONE WITH A DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON               
THROUGH 10 AM FRIDAY MORNING AS A RESULT. FARTHER WEST SKIES CLEARED            
TODAY AND THE FOG THAT SET IN DISSIPATED RATHER QUICKLY. TONIGHT                
WILL SEE THE INVERSION TRAP ABUNDANT MOISTURE AT THE SURFACE                    
AGAIN...BUT WINDS JUST ABOVE THE INVERSION WILL STAY A LITTLE HIGHER            
IN RESPONSE TO THE DEEPENING TROUGH IN THE WESTERN CONUS. EXPECT                
THIS SLIGHTLY HIGHER WIND ABOVE THE INVERSION TO INDUCE ENOUGH                  
MIXING OVERNIGHT TO PREVENT THE FOG FROM BECOMING AS DENSE ACROSS               
THE WESTERN TWO THIRDS OF THE FORECAST AREA. IN FACT...HAVE KEPT FOG            
OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR AREAS FROM THE KANSAS CITY METRO ON SOUTH AS            
MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW THE SURFACE MOISTURE TO BE PARTICULARLY                    
SHALLOW. THIS WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED OVERNIGHT THOUGH IN CASE                  
RADIATION FOG BEGIN TO DEVELOP UNDER THE CLEAR SKIES.                           
ATTENTION THEN TURNS TOWARDS FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY AS THE                   
DEEPENING WEST CONUS TROUGH SWEEPS EAST THROUGH THE PLAINS. GFS AND             
ECMWF HAVE CONTINUED TO CONVERGE TOWARDS ONE SOLUTION FOR THIS                  
WEEKENDS SYSTEM...AND THE NAM-WRF SEEMS TO BE MOVING IN THE SAME                
DIRECTION. THE EARLY WEEKEND SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL ACTUALLY CONSIST             
OF A NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAM WAVES PHASING AS THEY THEY MOVE               
THROUGH MISSOURI. THERE IS A STRONG SHOT OF COLD AIR THAT WILL                  
QUICKLY SPREAD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL              
BE BRINGING THE BULK OF ITS MOISTURE FROM THE PACIFIC...SO THE                  
EXPECTATION IS THAT MUCH OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL BE POST                      
FRONTAL...IN THE DEFORMATION ZONE BEHIND THE SURFACE LOW.                       
WITH THE SOLUTIONS FROM THE GFS/ECMWF/AND NAM-WRF ALL CONVERGING I              
HAVE NOT HAD TO MAKE MANY ADJUSTMENTS TO THE GOING FORECAST FOR                 
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. DID KEEP SOME LIKELY POPS ACROSS THE                
EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA FOR SATURDAY EVENING AS THE WEIGHT            
OF THE CONSENSUS SLOWS THE SYSTEM A LITTLE. OTHERWISE...EXPECT MUCH             
OF THE PRECIPITATION FALLING FROM THE SKY TO BE SNOW BY THE                     
AFTERNOON HOURS. FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET ARE GOING TO BE MINOR AS               
THE SPEED WITH WHICH THE COLD AIR RUSHES IN SHOULD PRECLUDE MUCH                
OPPORTUNITY FOR MIXED PRECIP. CURRENT SNOWFALL TOTALS STILL LOOK                
RANGE BETWEEN 1 TO 4 INCHES OF ACCUMULATION...IN PART DUE TO THE                
PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF THE SYSTEM. ALSO...WIND BEHIND THE FRONT LOOKS            
TO BE SUSTAINED AS HIGH AS 20 TO 30 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS.                      
THEREFORE...ADDED BLOWING SNOW TO THE FORECAST WEATHER FOR THE DAY              
SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT.                                                    
CUTTER                                                                          
EXTENDED...(SUNDAY-THURSDAY)                                                    
THE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN SHORTWAVE BRANCHES WILL CONTINUE TO PHASE             
AT THE START OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST ON SUNDAY. THE PHASING SYSTEM             
WILL QUICKLY DEPART TO THE NORTHEAST...WITH SHORTWAVE                           
RIDGING/SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SPREADING EAST IN ITS WAKE.                       
A SERIES OF PACIFIC SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WILL CONTINUE TO HEAD EAST                
THROUGH THE MEAN FLOW ACROSS THE CONUS NEXT WEEK. MODEL AGREEMENT               
DIMINISHES QUICKLY BY EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH REGARD TO THESE SHORTWAVE            
FEATURES. AS SUCH...THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE FOR PRECIPITATION                   
CHANCES. IF ONE MODEL WERE TO BE CHOSEN OVER ANOTHER...WOULD HAVE TO            
SIDE WITH THE MORE CONSISTENT ECMWF. THE ECMWF STILL BRINGS A                   
CLIPPER SYSTEM FURTHER SOUTH THAN THE GFS ON MONDAY...BUT WITH                  
LITTLE MOISTURE TO WORK WITH MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION IS NOT                    
EXPECTED FOR OUR NECK OF THE WOODS. THE NEXT IN THE SERIES OF                   
PROGRESSIVE SHORTWAVES IS PROGGED TO AFFECT THE REGION TOWARD                   
WEDNESDAY.                                                                      
STOFLET                                                                         
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
/535 PM CST THU DEC 20 2007/                                                    
FOR THE 00Z TAF CYCLE...SOUNDINGS SHOW ANOTHER INVERSION SETTING UP             
ACROSS THE KANSAS/MISSOURI BORDER REGION TONIGHT...WITH A MODEST AND            
MOIST SOUTHEAST SURFACE FLOW. HOWEVER...THE WIND JUST OFF THE                   
SURFACE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN A LITTLE STRONGER EARLY FRIDAY MORNING            
THAN IT WAS THIS MORNING. THOUGHTS ARE THAT THIS WILL KEEP THE                  
SURFACE LAYER MIXED A LITTLE MORE WITH THE DRY LAYER ABOVE                      
PREVENTING A DRASTIC DECREASE IN VISIBILITIES IN THE MORNING.                   
BIGGEST CONCERN WILL BE AT KSTJ WITH ITS SLIGHTLY LOWER ELEVATION               
ISOLATING IT A BIT MORE FROM THE EFFECTS OF DRIER AIR MIXING IN                 
OVER TOP.  WILL GO WITH A TEMPO CATEGORY FOR IFR CONDITIONS LATE                
TONIGHT AT THAT SITE.                                                           
PC                                                                              
&&                                                                              
.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
MO...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM FRIDAY FOR MOZ003-MOZ004-                   
     MOZ005-MOZ006-MOZ007-MOZ008-MOZ013-MOZ014-MOZ015-MOZ016-                   
     MOZ017-MOZ022-MOZ023-MOZ024-MOZ025-MOZ030-MOZ031-MOZ032-                   
     MOZ033-MOZ038-MOZ039-MOZ040-MOZ044-MOZ045-MOZ046-MOZ054.                   
KS...NONE.                                                                      
$$                                                                              
</pre> mo                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT                                            
835 PM MST FRI DEC 21 2007                                                      
.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR SAT AND SUN...                                          
UPDATE FOR FORECAST THIS EVENING. NO UPDATE TO AFP. FORECAST IN                 
GOOD SHAPE TONIGHT AND WILL ONLY BE MAKING MINOR ADJUSTMENTS.                   
DRIER AIR IS PUSHING INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST AND HAVE                  
REMOVED POPS OVER THE NORTHWEST ZONES. HAVE ALSO REMOVED POPS                   
OVER THE FAR SOUTHEAST ZONES AS UPPER TROUGH IS EXITING THE AREA                
WITH SUBSIDENCE SETTING UP BEHIND THE WAVE. BIGGEST CHALLENGE                   
TONIGHT IS TEMPERATURES. DEW POINT TEMPERATURES IN THE SINGLE                   
DIGITS JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA AND WILL SINK                     
SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT. SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT ALSO WEAKENING                   
WITH EXITING WAVE WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR LIGHTER WINDS. HAVE                      
LOWERED TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE EASTERN AREAS WHERE THE COLDEST                 
AIR IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. DID NOT CHANGE TEMPERATURES OVER THE                 
CENTRAL AND WESTERN ZONES AS 00Z RUC13 AND NAM SHOWING WARM AIR                 
ADVECTION TAKING PLACE AT 700MB AND 850MB. RICHMOND                             
.LONG TERM...VALID FOR MON...TUE...WED...THU...FRI...                           
MOST OF THE EXTENDED EMPHASIS ON MONDAY SYSTEM AS GFS AND OTHER                 
MODELS ARE LOOKING PRETTY SOLID ON THE TRACK OF THE SYSTEM. STILL               
A PROGRESSIVE FLOW PATTERN WITH A SERIES OF HIGHER AMPLITUDE WAVES              
PROGGED TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA. MONDAY SYSTEM DIGS THE MAIN                    
SHORTWAVE ENERGY OVER IDAHO INTO UTAH WITH A COLD FRONT MOVING                  
ACROSS MONTANA. IT LOOKS LIKE THE LATEST GFS IS PICKING UP ON SOME              
SURFACE WAVE DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE FRONT IN SOUTHERN MONTANA DUE                
TO A BETTER ARCTIC SURGE. GFS AND WRF ARE IN AGREEMENT WITH TIMING              
WHILE THE ECWMF IS ABOUT 6 TO 8 HOURS FASTER. IT MAY BE THAT THIS               
ALLOWS A BIT MORE WARMING IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT AND SETS UP A                 
BETTER BAROCLINIC REGION WITH SURFACE WAVE DEVELOPMENT. HAVE UPPED              
POPS ACROSS THE AREA AND WHILE DYNAMICS ARE NOT REAL IMPRESSIVE                 
MOISTURE SHOULD BE VERY DEEP AS AN ACTIVE PACIFIC PATTERN COULD                 
BRING DECENT PRECIPITABLE WATERS INTO THE STORM. HAVE NOT ADJUSTED              
TEMPERATURES AS GUIDANCE SPREAD FOR MONDAY RANGES FROM 32 TO 46                 
DEGREES WITH TIMING CRITICAL TO MAX TEMPERATURE. BOTTOM LINE IS                 
THAT SNOWFALL IS POSSIBLE ON MONDAY WHICH MAY SLOW DOWN TRAVEL                  
TIMES ON THE EVE OF THE HOLIDAY. SNOW SHOULD CONTINUE INTO MONDAY               
NIGHT WITH A RIDGE RAPIDLY MOVING INTO THE AREA TUESDAY MAKING IT               
A DRY DAY BUT COOLER WITH LEESIDE PRESSURE GRADIENTS NOT BECOMING               
DOWNSLOPISH UNTIL LATE TUESDAY NIGHT. WEDNESDAY HAS GOOD AGREEMENT              
THAT ANOTHER SYSTEM TRACKS THROUGH THE AREA BUT AGAIN TRACK IS                  
MAINLY SOUTH AND WEST OF THE AREA SO MUCH WILL DEPEND ON SURFACE                
WAVE DEVELOPMENT. PATTERN SLOWS DOWN AT THIS POINT WHERE                        
TROUGHINESS REMAINS OVER THE AREA FOR THURSDAY WITH CONTINUED                   
COOLING AND TEMPERATURES REMAINING IN THE 20S...DEPENDING ON HOW                
MUCH SNOW IS ACCUMULATED BY THIS POINT. FRIDAY SEES RIDGING MOVE                
ACROSS THE AREA WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT FOR EARLY NEXT WEEKEND.               
THIS MAY ALLOW A LONGER LIVED DOWNSLOPE FLOW PATTERN TO DEVELOP                 
BRINING MODERATION. BORSUM                                                      
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
SKIES WILL BE CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY OVERNIGHT WITH VFR                         
CONDITIONS PREVAILING ACROSS THE PLAINS. HOWEVER...A FEW SNOW                   
SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE BEARTOOTH/ABSAROKA MOUNTAINS                  
WITH A FEW AREAS OF MVFR CONDITIONS AND MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS.                  
SOME PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE ACROSS AREAS WITH A SNOW COVER...BUT                
MAINLY ALONG AND A FEW MILES EITHER SIDE OF THE YELLOWSTONE                     
RIVER. HOOLEY                                                                   
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...                                                 
    SAT     SUN     MON     TUE     WED     THU     FRI                         
-----------------------------------------------------------                     
BIL 011/028 018/034 023/040 024/033 019/032 017/032 016/032                     
    00/U    20/B    04/S    42/S    00/U    00/B    00/U                        
LVM 008/024 020/031 024/033 021/032 016/032 018/032 015/032                     
    10/N    33/S    04/S    52/S    02/S    10/B    02/S                        
HDN 012/029 012/034 018/038 021/034 015/032 015/032 014/032                     
    00/U    00/B    02/S    42/S    00/U    00/B    00/B                        
MLS 008/026 008/029 014/038 020/032 014/032 011/033 012/033                     
    00/U    00/B    01/B    31/B    00/U    00/B    00/B                        
4BQ 006/027 008/029 014/037 019/033 013/028 010/030 013/030                     
    00/U    01/B    00/B    32/S    00/U    01/B    00/B                        
BHK 005/020 004/024 007/034 015/031 010/027 008/031 011/031                     
    00/U    00/B    00/B    22/S    00/B    00/B    00/B                        
SHR 006/026 009/029 013/037 020/032 012/028 011/033 012/033                     
    00/U    12/S    02/S    42/S    00/U    01/B    01/B                        
&&                                                                              
.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
MT...NONE.                                                                      
WY...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS                                                            
</pre> mt                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY                                          
1121 AM EST FRI DEC 21 2007                                                     
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
MARINE MOISTURE WILL RIDE UP THE MOUNTAINS OF NORTHEASTERN                      
PENNSYLVANIA, AND BRING CLOUDS AND PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE TO THE               
REGION TONIGHT. LOW PRESSURE WILL SPREAD STRONG WINDS AND RAIN                  
INTO NY AND PA FOR SUNDAY. BEHIND THE STORM WILL BE COLDER AIR AND              
LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.                              
&&                                                                              
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...                                                 
LOW LEVEL SOUTHEAST FLOW OFF OF ATLANITC KEEPING CLOUDS OVER MOST               
OF THE CWA TODAY INTO SATURDAY. WITH THE THICK LOW CLOUDS DROPPED               
THE HIGH TEMPERATURES BY A FEW DEGREES. FEW OTHER CHANGES TO THE                
NEAR TERM.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...                                  
MAIN CONCERN IN THE NEAR TERM IS FOR PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE                    
OVERNIGHT, AND EARLY SATURDAY. MARINE LAYER MOISTURE WILL FLOW                  
NORTHWEST THROUGH PA TONIGHT. THE BEST CHANCE FOR FREEZING DRIZZLE              
WILL BE JUST NORTH OF THE HIGH TERRAIN IN NORTHEASTERN PA, AND ALSO             
INTO DELAWARE AND OTSEGO COUNTIES, WHERE THE ADDED LIFT SHOULD                  
ALLOW FOR SOME LIGHT DRIZZLE.                                                   
WE BRING CHC POPS INTO NY/PA SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH WARM FRONTAL               
PUSH, THEN QUICKLY RAMP POPS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. MODELS                 
ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT REGARDING MOISTURE FLOW AND LIFT. THERE ARE               
SOME QPF DISCREPANCIES, WHICH COULD COME INTO PLAY ON SUNDAY. WITH              
1.50-2.00 INCHES OF LIQUID IN THE SNOW PACK MAINLY EAST OF I-81,                
AND AN ADDITIONAL 0.75-1.50 INCHES OF PRECIPITATION EXPECTED,                   
THERE IS A POSSIBILITY FOR HYDRO CONCERNS. GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF                
THE WINDS, THE HIGH DEW POINTS, AND THE MILD TEMPERATURES OVER AN               
EXTENDED PERIOD OF TIME, A LOT OF SNOW PACK COULD BE MELTED TO                  
RELEASE ITS WATER CONTENT.                                                      
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...                                         
MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH FEATURES BEHIND THE                
STRONG LOW PRESSURE AND COLD FROPA SUNDAY NIGHT. CYCLONIC FLOW                  
ALOFT AND CAA ACROSS LAKE ONTARIO WILL MAINTAIN PLENTY OF CLOUDS                
AND LAKE EFFECT SNOW STREAMERS. MODELS DIVERGE TUES AND WEDNESDAY.              
ALL MODELS AGREE ON HIGH AMPLITUDE TROF DEVELOPING OVER INTERMOUNTAIN           
WEST...BUT THE LAST FEW RUNS OF GFS SEEM TO BE OUT ON THEIR OWN WITH            
MAINTAINING A STRONG RIDGE OVER THE SW ATLANTIC AND SE CONUS.THE                
GEFS/EC/GGEM/UKMET CAMP...AND EVEN NOGAPS SHOW SOME NRN/SRN STREAM              
PHASING OF UL LOW PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES ON TUESDAY              
AND WEDNESDAY. THIS LEADS TO SIGNIFICANT CYCLOGENESIS OFFSHORE.                 
THAT SAID...THIS DOES NOT SEEM TO HAVE MUCH BEARING ON CNY/NEPA                 
WEATHER FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...BARRING A SIGNIFICANT WWD                 
SHIFT IN MODEL TRACKS OF THE LOW FEATURE. BOTH MODEL CAMPS OFFER                
UP AT LEAST SOME DERIVATION OF HIGH PRESSURE FORMING OVER THE                   
NORTHEAST WITH FAIR WX BOTH CHRISTMAS DAY...AND WEDNESDAY AND WILL              
GO WITH THAT FOR NOW. THURSDAY ALSO BECOMES ANOTHER PROBLEM WITH                
MORE MODEL SPREAD. GFS AND IT/S GEFS ENSEMBLES LIFTS OUT THE                    
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST LOW BY THURSDAY...WHILE EC SEEMS TO HOLD BACK A              
COUPLE DAYS. CAN GGEM WOULD SUGGEST SOME PRECIP AS EARLY AS THURS.              
PREV FCST INDICATES CHC...AND WILL STICK WITH THAT CONSIDERING                  
OVERALL LOW PRESSURE INDICATED OVER UPR MIDWEST/GTLKS BY DAY 7 HPC              
PROG.                                                                           
PRETTY MUCH WENT WITH WHAT 00Z GMOS HAS OFFERED FOR TEMPS.                      
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION /16Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...                                       
ANOTHER DAY...MORE CRAZY FLIGHT CONDITIONS IN CNY/NEPA. LATEST FOG              
PRODUCT SHOWS PLENTY OF HOLES HAD DEVELOPED IN THE STRATUS LAYER                
BETWEEN 08Z-11Z...WITH CIGS SCATTERING OUT TO VFR AT BGM-ELM-ITH-               
RME. ON THE FLIP SIDE...THIS CLEARING HAS ALLOWED MVFR AND BRIEF                
IFR VSBYS TO DEVELOP. MEANWHILE...MARINE LAYER STRATUS WAS NOT                  
THAT FAR AWAY...AND HAS INVADED AVP WITH MVFR CIGS. NOT EXACTLY                 
SURE WHY ALL THIS HAS TRANSPIRED...BUT COULD BE THAT SELY BLYR                  
FLOW HAS INCREASED WITH A LITTLE DOWNSLOPING WAS OCCURRING FROM THE             
CATSKILLS AND POCONOS WAS AFFECTING BGM-ELM-ITH...WHILE MOISTURE                
WAS INCRG ON THE LEE SIDE AT AVP. RUC AND NAM MODELS DO SEEM TO BE              
CAPTURING THIS IN THE 925 MB RH FIELDS...AND BOTH SUGGEST THAT BKN-OVC          
MVFR CIGS FROM THE MARINE LAYER WILL RETURN TO THE CLEARED OUT AREAS            
BY 15Z. SYR REMAINS SOCKED IN LIFR CIG. THINKING IS THAT THEY TOO               
WILL LIFT THE LOW LAYER TO MVFR BY 13Z OR 14Z. ONCE THE MARINE                  
STRATUS LAYER IS IN...IT IS PROGGED TO STAY THROUGH THIS PERIOD                 
WITH MINOR FLUCTUATIONS. ALSO EXPECT AS LAYER COOLS TONIGHT SOME                
WEAK UPSLOPE LIFT MAY CAUSE IFR CIGS AGAIN WITH FREEZING DRIZZLE                
AT AVP AND BGM...WITH LESS OF A CHC AT ELM-ITH AND VRY LITTLE CHC               
AT RME-SYR. CONFIDENCE IN THE DETAILS OF THIS FCST AT ANY STATION               
IS VERY LOW...NOT A GOOD DAY FOR VFR ONLY RATED AVIATORS.                       
HIGH PRESSURE STRENGTHENS A LITTLE ON SATURDAY WITH MODELS                      
SHOWING DRYING OF THE LOW LVLS IN THE AFTERNOON. THIS SHOULD AT                 
LEAST ALLOW CIGS TO REACH VFR. THEN...THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM APPCHS              
LATE SATURDAY NIGHT WITH PCPN DEVELOPING AFTER 06Z SUNDAY. RAIN                 
EXPECTED ON SUNDAY BEFORE STRONG COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE TOWARD                    
EVENING...WITH PRECIPITATION CHANGING OVER TO ALL SNOW. EXPECT                  
VARIABLE MVFR-IFR CIG RESTRICTIONS ON SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT.                  
WINDS INCREASE OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST SUNDAY MORNING WITH LOW-LEVEL               
WINDS OF 50+ KTS DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY WITH LLWS POSSIBLE...FOLLOWED         
BY BLUSTERY WEST-NW WINDS POST FROPA ON SUNDAY NIGHT. COLD                      
ADVECTIVE NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CAUSE LAKE EFFECT ON MONDAY AND                   
MONDAY NIGHT WITH STRATOCUMULUS MVFR/IFR CIGS...AND ALSO POOR VSBY              
IN SHSN. HIGH PRESSURE BEGINNING TO BUILD IN ON TUESDAY WILL SHUT               
LAKE EFFECT OFF BY MID-WEEK.                                                    
&&                                                                              
.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
PA...NONE.                                                                      
NY...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SYNOPSIS...TAC                                                                  
NEAR TERM...TAC                                                                 
SHORT TERM...DJP                                                                
LONG TERM...JAB                                                                 
AVIATION...JAB                                                                  
</pre> ny                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND                                            
337 PM CST FRI DEC 21 2007                                                      
.SHORT TERM...                                                                  
THE FCST IS CERTAINLY COMPLICATED TODAY...BUT ONCE AGAIN SPLIT FLOW             
ALOFT HAS SHOWN ITSELF NOT TO BE A MAJOR SNOW PRODUCER IN THIS AREA.            
THE 12Z GFS GETS OUR NOD PER ITS INITIALIZATION OF THE UPPER LOW IN             
ALBERTA AT 12Z AND ITS HANDLING OF THE PRECIP BAND WORKING INTO                 
CENTRAL ND AS OF 21Z. HOWEVER...ITS QPF AMOUNTS ARE MUCH TOO HIGH               
WITH LACK OF MORE FOCUSED DEEP LAYERED ASCENT...AND HENCE WE HAVE               
CUT THIS BACK. WINTER WEATHER HEADLINES REMAIN THE CONCERN INTO                 
THE EVE WITH TRAVEL IMPACTS...BUT TEMPS BECOME THE MAIN ISSUE OVER              
THE WEEKEND.                                                                    
LOOKING THROUGH MODEL DIAGNOSTICS TELLS US WHY SNOW HAS NOT BEEN                
AS INTENSE AS QPF WOULD SHOW...WITH THE PRIMARY QG FORCING ACROSS               
THE FA RATHER DISJOINTED...AND FOCUSED IN WSTRN SD WHERE CLOUD                  
TOPS HAVE COOLED MOST TODAY. WE ALSO LACKED JET DYNAMICS WITH A                 
DOMINANT SRN STREAM...AND ISENTROPIC LIFT WAS ALSO MINIMIZED. MOST              
UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION HAS COME VIA DIFFERENTIAL PVA ALOFT                      
COURTESY THE SE-MOVING UPPER LOW NOW IN CENTRAL SASKATCHEWAN.                   
THERMAL FORCING IS NOT FAVORABLE...HENCE THE POOR DEEP LAYER                    
Q-VECTOR RESPONSE. THE 12Z GFS AND MORE RECENT RUC RUNS HAVE                    
HOWEVER CAUGHT THE BAND OF SNOW SPREADING JUST AHEAD OF THE                     
PRIMARY CAA INTO CENTRAL ND. WE GOT 1-3 INCHES OF SNOW IN THIS                  
BAND AND SINCE IT IS PROGRESSIVE DO NOT EXPECT MUCH MORE THAN                   
THAT. SNOW RATIOS WILL WILL DROP AS STRONG 925-850MB CAA CONTINUES              
INTO THE EVE...BUT PWATS ALSO DROP TO 0.25 INCHES IN THE 50-75NM                
ZONE BEHIND THE PRIMARY LOW LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE. THE MAIN ISSUE               
IS GOING TO BE BLSN...WITH 30KT GUSTS COMMON ACROSS SW ND ALREADY.              
GFS BUFR SOUNDINGS SHOW 30-35KTS AT THE TOP OF THE MIXED LAYER                  
INTO THIS EVE SO WE WILL CONTINUE TO GET THESE GUSTS AT THE                     
SFC...BUT THE PRIMARY ISALLOBARIC COMPONENT /3-HOUR PRESSURE RISE               
CENTER OF ONLY 3MB AS OF 21Z/ HAS WEAKENED THE PAST 6 HOURS. WITH               
FALLING SFC TEMPS AND BLOWING/DRIFTING...ROADS WILL BE SLICK AND                
HENCE WE WILL CONTINUE WITH THE SN/BS ADVZY. WE DID HOWEVER                     
UTILIZE THE 12Z GFS TIMING OF THE SNOW BAND TO DROP THE ADVZY IN                
THE WEST AT 02Z...THE CENTRAL AT 06Z...AND HUNG ON TO THE HEADLINE              
IN THE JMS AREA UNTIL 12Z. KDIK HAS OCCASIONALLY BEEN DOWN 1SM THE              
PAST FEW HOURS SO EVEN BEHIND THE PRIMARY SN BAND SOME TRAVEL                   
PROBLEMS WILL CONTINUE. DRY AIR AHEAD OF THE SFC HIGH HAS WORKED                
INTO NW ND THOUGH SO WE WILL DROP THE ADVZY FROM NW ND.                         
THE UPPER VORT DROPS INTO CENTRAL ND SAT AND THE COLUMN COOLS                   
DRASTICALLY WITH 850MB TEMPS DOWN TO -20 C. THERE WILL STILL BE                 
SOME MIXING WITH PROG SOUNDINGS SHOWING 25KTS TO BRING TO THE                   
SFC...BUT THIS WILL DO NOTHING FOR THE TEMP RISE. WE UNDERCUT                   
GUIDANCE CONSIDERABLY GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF COOLING AND APPROACH                
OF THE SFC HIGH...AND ADDITION OF SOME SNOW PACK...ALBEIT MINOR IN              
MOST SPOTS. THE SAME GOES FOR SUNDAY...WHEN MIXING WILL BE EVEN                 
MORE LIMITED WITH THE SFC RIDGE AXIS SITTING ON TOP OF US. WIND                 
CHILLS WILL BE A PROBLEM...PERHAPS AS EARLY AS LATE TONIGHT...AND               
MORE LIKELY LATER ON SATURDAY. HOWEVER...WE WILL STOP SHORT OF                  
ISSUING THOSE HEADLINES FOR NOW IN ORDER TO AVOID CONFUSION WITH                
THE PRESENT EVENT.                                                              
S/W RIDGING PROGRESSES ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS ON MON AHEAD OF THE                
NEXT TROUGH STILL SET TO APPROACH BY 12Z TUE. THE 12Z GFS IS A BIT              
MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH HEIGHT FALLS WITH THIS NEXT SYSTEM...SO A                  
CHANCE OF SNOW IS IN THE CARDS IN WSTRN ND. AGAIN THOUGH THE                    
ENERGY WILL BE SPLIT AND HENCE CONFIDENCE IN GETTING MUCH OUT OF                
THE SYSTEM IS LOW.                                                              
.LONG TERM...                                                                   
FEW CHANGES IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD TODAY. THE ECMWF AND GFS ARE IN             
FAIR AGREEMENT AND HPC WENT MAINLY WITH THE ECMWF FOR DETAILS. KEPT             
MENTION OF LIGHT SNOW TUESDAY WITH LONGWAVE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM               
THE MAIN LOW IN NORTH CENTRAL CANADA AND ANOTHER LOW IN THE SOUTHERN            
PLAINS. THE ECMWF CUTS OFF THE SOUTHERN LOW FROM THE                            
WESTERLIES...WHILE THE GFS KEEPS THE LONGWAVE TROUGH MAINTAINED AS              
THE SYSTEMS MOVE EAST ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH AMERICA. AFTER THIS...THE            
STATE REMAINS BETWEEN LOWS THAT TRACK ACROSS CANADA AND LOWS                    
TRACKING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE CONUS. THIS WILL KEEP THE              
FORECAST DRY WITH NO BIG ARCTIC OUTBREAKS BUT ALSO NO WARM-UPS FROM             
THE SOUTHWEST. EXPECTING HIGHS IN THE TEENS AND 20S WITH LOWS 5 TO              
15 ABOVE - CLOSE TO AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.                              
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OVER EASTERN NEBRASKA WITH AN INVERTED TROUGH              
EXTENDING FROM THE LOW INTO THE RED RIVER VALLEY OF NORTH DAKOTA.               
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA WITH                
AREAS OF SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW CENTRAL. THIS SNOW EXPECTED TO                   
PERSIST THROUGH 02Z TO 05Z. THE BACK EDGE OF THE CLOUDS WITH DRY AIR            
IS MOVING INTO NORTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA AT THIS TIME. EXPECT                   
FALLING SNOW TO END OVER CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA BY AROUND 03Z. MVFR               
AND IFR CEILINGS AND VSBYS TO IMPROVE TO VFR OVER WESTERN ROUTES BY             
02Z AND OVER CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA BY 06Z...BUT PERSIST UNTIL 12Z IN             
THE RED RIVER VALLEY. ANOTHER MVFR/IFR CLOUD SHIELD EXPECTED TO MOVE            
INTO NORTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA AFTER 06Z AND SPREAD TO CENTRAL NORTH            
DAKOTA BY 12Z.                                                                  
&&                                                                              
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST /11 PM MST/                   
TONIGHT FOR NDZ003>005-011>013-019>022-034-035-042-045-046.                     
SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CST /7 PM MST/ THIS                   
EVENING FOR NDZ018-031>033-040-041-043-044.                                     
SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST SATURDAY FOR                      
NDZ023-025-036-037-047-048-050-051.                                             
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
CJS/HW/JV                                                                       
</pre> nd                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND                                         
930 AM CST THU DEC 20 2007                                                      
.SHORT TERM...                                                                  
ONCE AGAIN TEMPERATURES AND FOG CONTINUE BE FORECAST CHALLENGES FOR             
REMAINDER OF DAY. PATCHY BR...LOCALLY DENSE...PERSISTS FROM RED                 
RIVER VALLEY INTO NW MN. ASSOCIATED STRATUS DECK LOOKS TO BE                    
EXPANDING ACROSS NW MN AND BEING TRAPPED UNDER SHARP INVERSION MAY              
BE TOUGH TO ERODE. WILL AGAIN EXTEND BR THROUGH AM HOURS AND HOPE               
INCREASING MIXING WILL DISSIPATE MOST FOG. REMAINDER OF FA SHOULD               
SEE FAIR AMOUNT OF SOLAR WITH ONLY UPSTREAM SCT-BKN CI/AC.                      
TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO POSE CHALLENGES.  COLDEST READINGS THIS AM               
WEST OF VALLEY WHERE SKIES WERE CLEAR. WEAK WARM ADVECTION CONTINUES            
TODAY WITH RUC INDICATING AN INCREASE IN MIXING AS SURFACE GRADIENT             
TIGHTENS A BIT. WITH WARM COLUMN AND SOLAR WESTERN AREAS SHOULD NOT             
HAVE ANY PROBLEM REACHING FORECAST HIGHS. MAX TEMPERATURES OVER                 
REMAINDER OF FA UNDER BR AND STRATUS WILL HINGE ON MIXING/SOLAR.                
BEING PESSIMISTIC AREAS ADJACENT TO VALLEY IN NW/WEST CENTRAL MN MAY            
SEE LIMITED RECOVERY WITH FAR EAST ALREADY CLOSE TO EXPECTED HIGHS              
BUT NOT LIKELY TO SEE MUCH IMPROVEMENT IN LOW CIGS. WILL LOWER MAX              
TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY ACROSS MN ADJACENT TO VALLEY AND LEAVE                    
REMAINDER AS IS.                                                                
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
IFR/MVFR CIGS/VSBY FROM VALLEY EAST. MODELS SUGGEST INCREASED MIXING            
WHICH MAY IMPROVE VSBYS IN BR LATE AM INTO EARLY AFTERNOON. NOT                 
QUITE AS CONFIDENT IN LOSING LOWER CIGS OVER MN. MOISTURE REMAINS               
TRAPPED BLO SHARP INVERSION AND CONFIDENCE NOT REAL HIGH ON CIGS                
ERODING.                                                                        
&&                                                                              
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
ND...NONE.                                                                      
MN...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
VOELKER                                                                         
</pre> nd                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC                              
1240 AM EST FRI DEC 21 2007                                                     
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL GIVE WAY TO AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE TONIGHT.            
COOL AND UNSETTLED NORTHEAST FLOW WILL REMAIN INTO THE WEEKEND AS A             
WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE LINGERS. A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CROSS               
THE AREA ON SUNDAY.                                                             
&&                                                                              
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...                                         
MOST OF THE SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION DURING THE REMAINDER OF THE               
OVERNIGHT PERIOD WILL REMAIN WELL TO THE SOUTH OF THE CWA IN THE                
VICINITY OF THE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING EASTWARD ALONG               
THE GULF COAST TOWARD NORTHERN FL.  RUC DEPICTS SOME LIGHT RAIN                 
SPREADING ACROSS EXTREME NORTHEAST GA AND WESTERN CAROLINAS BETWEEN             
05Z AND 08Z AS SHORT WAVE TROUGH APPROACHES AND ISENTROPIC LIFT                 
STRENGTHENS A LITTLE OVER SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM            
EXTENDING SOUTHWARD FROM EASTERN CANADA AND NEW ENGLAND.  OVERNIGHT             
FORCING IS RATHER WEAK AND CURRENT RADAR DEPICTION SHOWS THAT                   
EXISTING PRECIPITATION IS NOT EXTENSIVE IN COVERAGE.  SO... HAVE                
LOWERED POPS SOMEWHAT FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST BUT MOST OF CWA WILL               
STILL HAVE LIKELY OR CATEGORICAL.                                               
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...                       
AS OF 200 PM THURSDAY...PRECIPITATION FROM SOUTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE           
AND ATTENDANT SURFACE LOW WILL BE AFFECTING THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY            
MORNING. HOWEVER...EXPECT RAINFALL TO BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE AS BEST              
FORCING WILL BE TO THE SOUTH. ALSO...EXPECT THAT CONVECTION TO THE              
SOUTH WILL ROB MOISTURE INFLUX. NEVERTHELESS...IT LOOKS LIKE                    
WIDESPREAD LIGHT RAIN (CATEGORICAL POPS) WILL BE OVER THE SOUTHERN              
PIEDMONTS EARLY FRIDAY...BUT WILL TAPER POPS OFF RAPIDLY TO THE                 
NORTH. THIS SYNOPTIC SCALE PRECIP WILL MOVE OUT THE REGION BY MIDDAY            
AS SHORT WAVE MOVES OFF THE SE COAST. HOWEVER...NO CLEARING IS                  
EXPECTED AS COLD HIGH OVER NEW ENGLAND WEDGES SOUTHWARD ALONG AND               
EAST OF THE APPALACHIANS. MODELS INDICATE THAT CAD WILL PERSIST                 
THROUGH SAT ALONG WITH WEAK UPSLOPE COMPONENT IN THE MOUNTAINS..                
HENCE...EXPECT CLOUDY CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THROUGH SAT. AREAS OF               
LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE ARE A GOOD BEST ALONG THE ESCARPMENT THROUGH SAT.            
PATCHY DRIZZLE A GOOD BET ELSEWHERE FRI NIGHT. BETTER UPSLOPE                   
COMPONENT AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT WILL SUPPORT INCREASING CHANCES OF             
RAIN...ESPECIALLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS SAT NIGHT. APPROACHING COLD                
FRONT LATE SAT NIGHT WILL ALSO BOOST PRECIP CHANCES IN THE                      
MOUNTAINS. WILL STAY ON THE LOW END OF GUIDANCE FOR MAX TEMPS BOTH              
FRI AND SAT. TEMPS WILL PROBABLY SHOW A NON-DIURNAL TREND SAT NIGHT             
AS CAD ERODES AND WARM ADVECTION KICKS IN. USED 3 HOURLY GMOS TO                
POPULATE TEMPERATURE GRIDS WHICH KEEPS SAT NIGHT LOWS ESSENTIALLY               
IN THE UPPER 40S EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS AND LOW TO MID 40S IN                    
MOUNTAINS.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...                                         
AS OF 230 PM THURSDAY...NAM/GFS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT COLD FRONT               
WILL CROSS THE FORECAST AREA ON SUNDAY. HIGHEST POPS WILL BE IN THE             
MOUNTAINS (LIKELY FOR NOW) WITH CHANCE POPS TO THE EAST. THERE MAY              
BE ENOUGH FORCING FOR WIDESPREAD SHOWERS EVERYWHERE...BUT FOR NOW WILL          
JUST SHOW CHANCE TYPE POPS TO EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS AS FLOW DOES                
VEER TO THE SW WHICH MAY TEND TO DIMINISH SHOWER CHANCES E OF                   
MOUNTAINS. EXPECT RAPID CLEARING BEHIND THE FRONT BY SUN EVENING.               
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION ON MONDAY WHICH SHOULD                 
PRODUCE A VERY NICE DAY. SUNDAY AND MONDAY LOOK TO BE MILD WITH                 
TEMPS ONE TO TWO CATEGORIES ABOVE NORMAL. THINGS GET MURKY RATHER               
QUICKLY AFTER MONDAY AS THE MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO BE IN            
FLUX. THE ECWMF AND GFS SOLUTIONS ARE QUITE DIFFERENT FOR CHRISTMAS             
ONWARD. AFTER CONSULTATION WITH NEIGHBORING OFFICES...IT WAS                    
DETERMINED THAT HPC GUIDANCE WOULD BE UTILIZED WHICH LEANS HEAVILY              
ON THE ECWMF SOLUTION. THIS SOLUTION BRINGS A SHORT WAVE ACROSS THE             
AREA ON TUE WITH CYCLOGNESIS ALONG THE COAST. THIS WOULD SPARE THE              
SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS FROM MUCH IN THE WAY OF SIGNIFICANT PRECIP.               
MAYBE JUST SOME WIDELY SCATTERED/SCATTERED SHOWERS (POSSIBLY MIXED              
WITH SNOW AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS IN MOUNTAINS). THEN A DRY DAY                    
WEDNESDAY. THE BEST THREAT FOR PRECIP THEN BECOMES THURSDAY AS A                
COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE W.                                               
GFS ON THE OTHER HAND DEVELOPS A SWATH OF OVERRUNNUNG PRECIP OVER               
THE FORECAST AREA BY LATE TUE USING THE OLD BOUNDARY TO THE S. IT               
KEEPS THIS SWATH OF MOISTURE/PRECIP ACROSS THE REGION INTO THU ALONG            
THE STATIONARY FRONT...WITH A SOUTHERN STREAM LOW THEN EJECTING NE              
DURING THU TO THE W OF APPALACHIANS. HOPEFULLY WE WILL GET BETTER               
AGREEMENT AS WE DRAW CLOSER.                                                    
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...                                       
CONDITIONS WERE SLOW TO DETERIORATE...BUT DETERIORATION IS NOW                  
ONGOING...ESP OVER WRN SECTIONS. THERMAL ADVECTION AND LIFT...PLUS A            
LITTLE HELP FROM WEAK UPSLOPE WIND COMPONENT...WILL KEEP RAIN ACROSS            
THE AREA OVERNIGHT. THIS LIFT COMBINED WITH THE STRENGTHENING                   
DAMMING HIGH WILL ALLOW IFR CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP BETWEEN 08Z AND               
10Z. SFC LOW MOVES TO OUR EAST TODAY...TAKING BEST LIFT WITH IT.                
HOWEVER...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT CONTINUE                  
THROUGH THE DAY...SO MVFR CIGS SHOULD REMAIN EVEN AFTER                         
PRECIPITATION ENDS LATE THIS MORNING. THE MOISTURE AND LIFT CONTINUE            
TONIGHT...SO AT LEAST MVFR CIGS AND VSBY EXPECTED. CANNOT RULE OUT              
IFR...BUT THAT MAY HOLD OFF UNTIL CLOSER TO SAT MORNING.                        
AVIATION OUTLOOK...CIG AND VSBY RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH               
SUNDAY AS MOISTURE LINGERS IN THE PERSISTENT COLD AIR DAMMING                   
REGION. A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE SHOULD SCOUR THE COLD WEDGE BY MON               
WITH COOL HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN BEHIND IT.                                  
&&                                                                              
.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
GA...NONE.                                                                      
NC...NONE.                                                                      
SC...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SYNOPSIS...BSH                                                                  
NEAR TERM...LGL                                                                 
SHORT TERM...LG                                                                 
LONG TERM...LG                                                                  
AVIATION...RWH                                                                  
</pre> sc                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR SOUTHEAST SD/SOUTHWEST MN/NORTHWEST IA             
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD   ..UPDATED AVN DISCUSSION              
1157 AM CDT FRI DEC 21 2007                                                     
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
UPDATED THE GRIDS AND ZFP. MAIN CONCERN WAS OVR THE ERN AND WRN                 
SECTIONS OF THE FSD FA FOR THIS AFTERNOON. FIRST FOR OUR WEST...12Z             
RAOBS CAME IN AND SHOW A HUGE WARM LYR ABOVE THE SFC AT KABR AND                
KLBF. THIS WAS PICKED UP BY THE NAM/RUC MODEL SNDGS SO DECIDED TO               
CHANGE THE PCPN TYPE TO PURE RAIN GIVEN CURRENT SFC TEMP READINGS.              
EXCEPT FOR A POSSIBILITY MIX OF -RA/-FZRA IN KINGSBURY AND BROOKINGS            
COUNTIES FOR LATER THIS AFTERNOON WHERE SFC TEMPS ARE A BIT COOLER.             
ALSO BROUGHT IN A MIX OF -RA/-FZRA IN THE LATE AFTERNOON HRS TOWARD             
EVENING IN THE HURON AND CHAMBERLAIN VICINITIES AS SFC TEMPS COOL               
JUST BEHIND THE FROPA. HOWEVER FOR THE BULK OF THE AFTERNOON...WITH             
THEIR RISING DEWPT TEMPS...THEY SHOULD JUST GO OVER TO PURE RAIN IN             
OUR FAR WEST. IN OUR FAR EAST...DECIDED TO JUST GO AREAS OF FOG ALL             
AFTERNOON. THE WALL OF STRATUS CONTINUES TO HUG RIGHT ALONG THE CWA             
BORDER BETWEEN US AND DMX. BUT THERE ARE INDICATIONS ON SATELLITE               
THAT THIS SHOULD BEGIN TO BACK INTO OUR FA AS THE AFTERNOON                     
PROGRESSES...AND ALSO THE H925 WINDS SHIFT FM THE S TO THE SE. AM               
HOPEFUL THOUGH...THAT THERE WILL BE ENUF THICKER HIGH CLOUDS OVR THE            
STRATUS TO KEEP DENSE FOG FM FORMING FM THE WINDOM MN TO STORM LAKE             
IA STRETCH. TONIGHT MAY BE A DIFFERENT STORY THOUGH...RIGHT AHEAD OF            
THE FROPA WHEN THE SFC WINDS GO DEAD. WL RE EVALUATE THAT A BIT                 
LATER.                                                                          
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
LOW CIGS AND VIS ABOUND FOR THE TAF SITES THRU THE NEXT 24 HRS.                 
FIRST FOR KSUX...THE LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL BACK TO AN ESE DIRECTION              
AS THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES...LASTING INTO THIS EVENING. THEREFORE              
AM CONCERNED THAT THE LOW STRATUS AND FOG CURRENTLY TO THE E OF THIS            
AREA WILL BACK IN TOWARD EVENING...INTO THE IFR AND LIFR RANGE. WL              
HAVE TO MONITOR TO SEE IF THE FOG GOES 1/4SM DURING THE EVENING HRS             
BEFORE THE FROPA. AFTER THE FROPA...VIS WL GO UP...BUT WL STILL BE              
REDUCED IN ANY AREAS OF SN/BLSN WITH LOW CIGS STAYING PUT THRU SAT              
MORNING. SAME PROBLEM AT KFSD...WITH SOME POSSIBLE IFR CIGS BACKING             
IN FM THE EAST THIS EVENING. SNOW SHOWERS AFT MIDNIGHT WITH TEMPO               
IFR CIGS/VIS WARRANTED. AT KHON...NOT EXPECTING THE LOW VIS/CIGS TO             
THE EAST TO BACK INTO THIS AREA. BUT KHON WL LIKELY SEE MVFR/IFR                
CIGS/VIS AFTER THE FROPA IN SNOW/BLSN.                                          
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION...                                                             
NEXT PBLM IS TIMIMG OF FNT. MODELS NOW SLOWER AND REALLY DO NOT PUSH            
FNT INTO WRN CWA UNTIL AFTN. S/W WAVE IN NRN FLOW WL SKIM BY THE NRN            
CWA THIS AFTN AND WL KEEP CHC OF S THERE WITH REST OF CWA DRY TODAY.            
FOCUS SHIFTS TO THE S WITH SRN STREAM WAVE FOR TONIGHT. BULK OF                 
PRECIP TONIGHT WL OCCUR BEHIND FNT AND CLOSER TO SRN STREAM WAVE. AM            
CONCERNED THAT BULK OF PRECIP WL REMAIN. HAVE TRIMMED BACK POPS TO              
LIKELY OVR NW IA LATER TONIGHT AS FEEL PRECIP WL LIKELY HOLD OFF                
THERE UNTIL AAFTER 06Z WHEN SRN STREAM WAVE PUSHES ENE. AHEAD OF FNT            
TONIGHT...WL LIKELY SEE AREAS OF OFG ALONG WITH PATCHY DRIZZLE OR               
FREEZING DRIZZLE IN THE EVE SO PUT THAT IN FCST ACRS NW IA.                     
ACRS REST OF CWA TONIGHT...WL SEE A CHC OF LIGHT SNOW WITH NRN TROF             
AND WNDS SHUD PICK UP BEHIND FNT AS CAA KICKS IN. WL BE CLOSE TO WND            
ADVY WRN CWA BUT FOR NOW WL NOT ISSUE HEADLINE.                                 
SAT LOOKS WINDY AND COLD WITH TEMPS NOT CLIMBING MUCH AT ALL. WUD               
EXPECT PLENTY OF STRATUS ERN CWA DURING THE DAY WITH CHC OF S- ACRS             
ERN CWA IN THE MORN.                                                            
SUN LOOKS WINDS OND COLD AS UPPER LOW SITS OVR MN. EXPECT PLENTY OF             
SC OVR ERN CWA WITH A PSBLTY OF FLURRIES OVR SW MN. MOST PLACES WILL            
NOT GET OUT OF TEENS FOR HIGHS.                                                 
HOLIDAY LOOKS DRY WITH NO MAJOR STORMS THRU NEXT WEEK.                          
&&                                                                              
.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
SD...NONE.                                                                      
MN...NONE.                                                                      
IA...NONE.                                                                      
NE...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
 MJF                                                                            
</pre> sd                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...AMENDED FOR WIND ADVISORY                            
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM                             
213 PM MST FRI DEC 21 2007                                                      
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
A STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPLY THE BORDERLAND              
WITH BREEZY TO WINDY WESTERLY WINDS INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS                    
TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY ALONG EAST-FACING SLOPES. IN ADDITION...THIS               
SYSTEM BRINGS WITH IT A GOOD SHOT FOR SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL ACROSS               
THE MOUNTAINS OF SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO...BUT ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE                 
FOR PRECIPITATION NEARER THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER. MUCH COOLER                  
TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED TOMORROW...AND OUR READINGS WILL HAVE              
A TOUGH TIME RECOVERING TO NORMAL LEVELS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF               
THE WEEK.                                                                       
&&                                                                              
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
AS A STRONG BERING STRAIGHTS 500MB CYCLONE CONTINUES TO EJECT                   
ENERGY INTO THE JET...EACH BURST STRENGTHENS AND PULLS SOUTH-                   
SOUTHEAST AS THEY ENTER THE PACIFIC NW. MORE SPECIFICALLY...4 SUCH              
SYSTEMS WILL SKIRT THE CWA THROUGH THE 7-DAY PERIOD.                            
THE FIRST TROUGH...ALREADY STRETCHING THROUGH UTAH AND ARIZONA AS               
OF 18Z TODAY...LOOKS TO BE OUR BEST SHOT FOR PRECIPITATION OF ANY               
OF THESE SYSTEMS. RUC-ANALYZED NEGATIVE LI`S JUST AHEAD OF THE                  
500 MB TROUGH AXIS HAVE BEEN HOST TO AN AREA OF CONVECTION ALL                  
MORNING...AND HAVE PUSHED INTO WESTERN NEW MEXICO AS OF 20Z THIS                
AFTERNOON. THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE MAINLY RAIN EXCEPT ABOVE AROUND                
7500 FEET AS IT MOVES INTO THE GILA ZONE THIS AFTERNOON. SNOW                   
LEVELS WILL DROP QUICKLY TO BELOW 5000 FEET NORTH OF LAS CRUCES BY              
MIDNIGHT TONIGHT AS COLD AIR FILTERS IN FROM THE NORTH AT THE                   
SURFACE BEHIND A SIDE-DOOR FRONT. BY THIS TIME OUR MAIN TROUGH                  
AXIS WILL HAVE PUSHED FAR ENOUGH EAST TO LIMIT THE RISK FOR                     
SIGNIFICANT SNOWS IN THE LOWLANDS. WITH THE MAIN BAND OF ENERGY                 
HOLDING OFF UNTIL LATER TO EFFECT THE SACRAMENTO MOUNTAIN                       
AREA...MORE SIGNIFICANT SNOWS LOOK TO BE MORE LIKELY THERE.                     
AMOUNTS APPEAR TO BE WELL-HANDLED WITH THE CURRENT ADVISORIES.                  
A STRONG SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN ESTABLISHED                      
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AS A STRENGTHENING LEE-SIDE LOW SLIDES ACROSS                 
NORTHERN TX. THIS WILL SUPPORT BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS -                     
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE EAST-SLOPES OF AREA MOUNTAINS - THROUGH THE               
NIGHT.                                                                          
MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES FOR TOMORROW WILL BE HARD TO BRING UP AS               
DISTURBANCE AFTER DISTURBANCE CROSSES THE AREA BRINGING WITH THEM               
REINFORCING SHOTS OR COOL AIR. OUR SECOND DISTURBANCE...SLATED FOR              
SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY CONTINUES TO LOOK DRIER. AS SUCH...HAVE                     
REMOVED MENTIONABLE POPS FOR THE SYSTEM.                                        
THE THIRD DISTURBANCE IS SLATED FOR CHRISTMAS DAY. AS READINGS                  
FINALLY RETURN TO LATE-DECEMBER NORMS...A STRONG UPPER LEVEL                    
TROUGH IS PROGGED TO DIG INTO THE SOUTHWEST. CURRENT MODEL                      
SOLUTIONS INDICATE WINDY CONDITIONS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR MAINLY               
THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA TO SEE AND PRECIPITATION. THIS                 
WOULD BE FOLLOWED AGAIN BY A COLD AIR INTRUSION FROM THE NORTH FOR              
THE 26TH.                                                                       
OUR FOURTH AND FINAL DISTURBANCE OF THE PERIOD LOOKS MUCH LIKE THE              
3RD...AND WOULD MAKE FOR BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS AND A SLIGHT                
CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION MAINLY NORTH OF LAS CRUSES THURSDAY                     
AFTERNOON/EVENING.                                                              
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...VALID 22/00Z-23/00Z                                                 
MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. HOWEVER...THERE              
WILL BE AREAS OF MVFR AND IFR TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING FOR CIGS            
AND VSBY IN RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS THAT WILL OBSCURE MTN TOPS. WINDS                 
OF 20 TO 25 KTS GUSTING TO 35 KTS THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT WILL                
LIKELY CAUSE MODERATE MECHANICAL TURBULENCE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS                 
EASTERN SLOPES OF AREA MOUNTAINS. WINDS DIMINISHING DURING THE NIGHT            
AND VFR CONDITIONS RETURNING FROM WEST TO EAST SATURDAY MORNING.                
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
EL PASO                 36  50  25  53  30 /  10   0   0   0   0                
SIERRA BLANCA TX        35  48  23  53  26 /  10   0   0   0   0                
LAS CRUCES              33  50  24  52  29 /  10   0   0   0   0                
ALAMOGORDO              32  50  21  50  25 /  20  10   0   0   0                
CLOUDCROFT              25  33  10  37  16 /  60  20   0   0   0                
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES   31  47  21  50  26 /  20   0   0   0   0                
SILVER CITY             28  43  19  45  22 /  30   0   0   0   0                
DEMING                  32  49  22  51  28 /  10   0   0   0   0                
LORDSBURG               31  49  21  51  27 /  20   0   0   0   0                
&&                                                                              
.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
NM...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM MST THIS AFTERNOON FOR NMZ022>025-                
     030>032.                                                                   
     SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM MST SATURDAY FOR NMZ022.                          
     SNOW ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 12 PM MST SATURDAY FOR             
     NMZ025.                                                                    
TX...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM MST THIS AFTERNOON FOR TXZ055-056.                
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
PIEPER                                                                          
</pre> tx                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX                                      
826 PM CST THU DEC 20 2007                                                      
.UPDATE...THE NAM/GFS DETERMINISTIC SOLNS PROGD 00Z FRI SFC DEW                 
POINTS 5-10C DEGRESS GREATER THAN METAR VALUES. THE LOCAL MM5                   
PROGD THE LOWEST 00Z FRI SFC DEW POINTS OVR THE NERN CWFA...                    
INCONSISTENT WITH THE 00Z FRI OBSERVATIONS. YET...THE RUC SOLN                  
PERFORMED MUCH BETTER IN THIS RESPECT...AND THUS MORE CONFIDENT IN              
THIS SOLN. HWR...ALTHOUGH THE RUC PROGS 12Z FRI SFC TEMPS HIGHER                
THAN THE CURRENT FCST...WL DEFER TO THE CURRENT FCST. ANTICIPATE                
THAT LIGHT WIND/EXTREMELY DRY CONDITIONS/DECOUPLING CONDITIONS WL               
ALLOW FOR SFC TEMPS TO MOVE CLOSER TO THE SFC DEW POINTS. THUS...               
WL RETAIN THE CURRENT TEMP FCST. CAVEAT...THE NAM/GFS PROG WEAK                 
ONSHORE WIND AFT 09Z FRI...WHICH COULD RESULT IN HIGHER MIN TEMPS               
OVR THE COASTAL COUNTIES.                                                       
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD.                       
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
CORPUS CHRISTI    83  45  80  63  77  /   0   0   0  10  10                     
VICTORIA          81  43  78  58  72  /   0   0   0  20  20                     
LAREDO            82  45  84  56  75  /   0   0   0   0  10                     
ALICE             84  43  83  59  77  /   0   0   0  10  10                     
ROCKPORT          82  49  76  63  75  /   0   0   0  20  20                     
COTULLA           81  41  81  53  72  /   0   0   0   0  10                     
KINGSVILLE        84  43  82  61  79  /   0   0   0  10  10                     
NAVY CORPUS       82  50  78  65  76  /   0   0   0  10  10                     
&&                                                                              
.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
TX...NONE.                                                                      
GM...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
WC/87...SHORT TERM                                                              
JR/19...AVIATION                                                                
</pre> tx                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI                                           
841 PM CST FRI DEC 21 2007                                                      
.UPDATE...FG NOT EXCEPTIONALLY DENSE ACRS THE AREA...BUT JUST                   
DON/T SEE HOW CONDITIONS ARE GOING TO IMPROVE WITH ABV FZG DWPTS                
CONTINUING TO ADVECT OVER THE SNOWCOVER DURING THE NGT. THE RUC13               
SFC VSBY GRIDS IN AWIPS SEEMED TO HAVE A DECENT HANDLE ON THE                   
SITN. THE PAST TWO RUNS BOTH PROGGED THE < 1/4 MI VSBYS TO EXPAND               
DURING THE NGT...AND TO COVER ALMOST ALL OF THE AREA BY 12Z. WL                 
EXPAND THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY TO COVER ALL BUT DOOR COUNTY. THE                 
DOOR IS PROBABLY SEEING SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR WORKING IN FM THE                    
E.                                                                              
WL NOT BE MAKING ANY CHANGES TO THE WINTER STORM WATCH ON THIS                  
SHIFT. THE KEY FACTOR WL OBVIOUSLY BE THE TIMING OF THE                         
CHANGEOVER TO SNOW. SEEMS THAT IN MOST CASES THE MODELS SEEM TO BRING           
THE CHANGE EWD TOO QUICKLY. BUT THEN AGAIN THERE ARE THE HANDFUL                
OF CASES WHERE THE DYNAMICS ARE SO STG THAT THE INTENSE LIFT                    
COOLS THE COLUMN AND RESULTS IN A MORE RAPID CHG TO SNOW.                       
AS EXPECTED...THE NEW NGM AND NAM BOTH KEPT THE SRN STREAM UPR                  
SYSTEM STRONGER AND MAINTAINED IT/S IDENTITY LONGER. THEY ALSO SLOWED           
IT A BIT...AND BROUGHT VERY STG LIFT THROUGH E-C WI LATE SAT NGT.               
IT/S GOING TO BE REAL TOUGH GETTING A HANDLE ON THE CHANGEOVER                  
TIME FOR E-C WI UNTIL WE ACTUALLY GET INTO THE EVENT.                           
NO GLARING PROBLEMS WITH THE HANDLING OF THE EVENT IN THE CURRENT               
FCST...SO WON/T BE MAKING ANY CHANGES.                                          
UPDATED PRODUCT SUITE WL BE OUT ASAP.                                           
SKOWRONSKI                                                                      
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED AT 354 PM CST FRI DEC 21 2007...                      
SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. MELTING SNOW AND LIGHT                   
WINDS WILL RESULT IN DENSE FOG TONIGHT. ISSUED AN ADVISORY FOR                  
MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH 9 O`CLOCK SATURDAY. LOTS OF LOW               
LEVEL MOISTURE AROUND TONIGHT FOR FOG BUT NOT MUCH FOR ANY                      
PRECIPITATION OTHER THAN PATCHY DRIZZLE OR FREEZING DRIZZLE UNTIL               
TOMORROW. NOT MUCH FALL IN TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TONIGHT AND ONLY               
A FEW DEGREE RISE TOMORROW.                                                     
LONG TERM...SAT NGT THRU NXT FRI. MAIN FCST CHALLENGE REMAINS                   
HANDLING OF INTENSIFYING STORM LATE THIS WEEKEND AND SNOW AMTS                  
ASSOCIATED WITH IT. FOR LTR PERIODS...A SERIES OF PAC STORMS ARE                
EXPECTED TO HIT THE WEST COAST NXT WEEK...WITH THE MORE ACTIVE SRN              
BRANCH TAKING MOST OF THE PCPN SOUTH OF NE WI. NRN FRINGE OF ONE                
OF THESE STORMS MAY GRAZE THE AREA WED NGT INTO THU...WITH ANOTHER              
FOR LATE FRI. NO ARCTIC AIR IN SIGHT...THUS TEMPS WL REMAIN AT OR               
ABV NORMAL FOR LATE DEC.                                                        
SFC BNDRY TO MOV ACROSS THE FCST AREA SAT EVENING TURNING THE WNDS              
TO THE WEST AND USHER IN COLDER AIR TO THE RGN. PHASING STORM                   
STILL PROGGED TO CONSOLIDATE A SFC LOW OVR NRN SECTIONS OF LK MI                
BY 12Z SUNDAY. PLENTY OF GULF MSTR WL BE AVBL AS THE STORM DVLPS                
WITH THE MAIN KEY TO THE SNOW AMTS BEING THE TIMING OF RAIN OVER                
TO SNOW TRANSITION. GOOD DYNAMICS INVOLVED (STG Q-VEC CONVERGENCE/              
FRONTOGENETICAL SIGNAL) AND STG UVV ALL POINT TO A GOOD QPF EVENT.              
AFTER COLLARBORATING WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES...FEEL MAINTAINING A              
WINTER STORM WATCH IS PRUDENT ESP SINCE PHASING SYSTEMS OFTEN DO                
NOT COME OFF EXACTLY AS PLANNED. HAVE EXPANDED THE WATCH A TIER OF              
COUNTIES EAST (TO INCLUDE FLORENCE/MENOMINEE/SHAWANO/WAUPACA) AS                
POTENTIAL FOR 4+" IS PSBL. HAVE ALSO SEPARATED THE WATCH INTO TWO               
SECTIONS WITH CNTRL WI RUNNING FROM 00Z SUN-18Z SUN (NO CHG) AND                
NRN WI FROM 00Z SUN-00Z MON. CURRENT THINKING IS THAT ERN WI WL                 
NOT SEE A CHANGEOVER TO ALL SNOW TIL LATE SAT NGT WHICH WOULD                   
OBVIOUSLY IMPACT SNOW AMTS. HEAVIEST SNOWS SHOULD RUN FROM CNTRL                
TO NRN WI WHERE AN INITIAL 3 TO 6 INCHES OF ACCUMULATION IS LIKELY              
TO FALL BY DAYBREAK (BULK COMING AFT MIDNGT). LASTLY...INTENSIFYING             
STORM WL TIGHTEN THE PRES GRAD TREMENDOUSLY TOWARD DAYBREAK. EVEN               
THO THE SNOW SHOULD BE OF A WET VARIETY TO BEGIN WITH...CAN SEE                 
SOME BLOWING AND DRIFTING OCCURRING TOWARD DAYBREAK.                            
SFC LOW MOVS ALMOST DUE NORTH INTO EITHER ERN LK SUPERIOR OR                    
EXTREME S-CNTRLL ONTARIO ON SUNDAY AS THE 5H UPR LOW ROTATES THRU               
THE GREAT LKS. THE BRUNT OF THE DYNAMICS SHIFTS NORTH AND EAST                  
DURING THE DAY SUCH THAT MOST OF THE SNOW ACROSS CNTRL/E-CNTRL WI               
WOULD START TO DIMINISH BY MIDDAY. NRN WI HOWEVER WL SEE THE SNOW               
PERSIST THRU THE AFTERNOON WITH STG CYCLONIC FLOW AND WRAP-AROUND               
MSTR ROTATING THRU. THIS IS THE REASON THE WATCH WAS EXTENDED TO                
00Z MON FOR NRN WI. IN ADDITION TO THE SNOW...A VERY WINDY DAY ON               
TAP WITH MOST LOCATIONS SEEING STEADY 20 TO 30 MPH WNDS AND GUSTS               
UP TO 45 MPH PSBL. AS FOR TEMPS...PERSISTENT CAA WL HAVE READINGS               
EITHER STEADY OR SLOWLY FALLING THRU THE DAY.                                   
THE STORM MOVES NE INTO QUEBEC SUNDAY NGT WITH THE PRES GRAD                    
SLOWLY RELAXING (STILL 10 TO 20 MPH AT 12Z MON). WE MAY STILL BE                
DEALING WITH SOME ROGUE WRAP-AROUND MSTR/SHRTWVS DURING THE NGT...              
THUS A CHC OF LGT SNOW OR FLURRIES APRS THE WAY TO GO. CYCLONIC                 
FLOW EXPECTED TO LOSE ITS INFLUENCE ON NE WI ON MON AS THE STORM                
CNOTS TO PULL AWAY AND HI PRES BUILDS INTO THE AREA. ANY LINGERING              
THREAT OF LK EFFECT SNOW SHWRS OR FLURRIES OVR FAR NRN WI WL COME               
TO AN END AS WNDS BEGIN TO BACK AND DRIER AIR STARTS TO ADVECT IN.              
SOME AFTERNOON SUNSHINE SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO REACH THE 20`S                    
THROUGHOUT NE WI AND MAY ADD A DEG OR TWO TO THE PREV FCST.                     
HI PRES AT THE SFC WL COMBINE WITH A SHRTWV RDG ALOFT TO THEN                   
SETTLE OVR THE GREAT LKS FOR XMAS DAY. QUIET CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL              
AND AS WNDS BACK MORE SW TUE AFTERNOON...TEMPS SHOULD BE ABLE TO                
WARM A BIT. HAVE RAISED MAX TEMPS A FEW DEGS AS A RESULT. THIS HI               
PRES SHIFTS TO OUR EAST BY THE MIDDLE OF NXT WEEK ALLOWING FOR A                
WEAK NRN STREAM SHRTWV TROF/ASSOCIATED CDFNT TO ENTER THE WRN                   
GREAT LKS. A MORE ACTIVE/STRONGER SRN STREAM STORM TO BE                        
ORGANIZING OVR THE DEEP SOUTH ON WED...BUT APRS TO BE TOO FAR                   
SOUTH FOR ANY OF ITS PCPN TO AFFECT NE WI. INSTEAD...WE WL ONLY                 
HAVE A MINIMAL CHC OF LGT SNOW AS THE CDFNT APPROACHES.                         
THE SRN STREAM STORM GETS BOOTED NEWD INTO THE MIDWEST WED NGT AND              
INTO THE ERN GREAT LKS ON THU AS AN UPSTREAM KICKER MOVS INTO THE               
DESERT SW. SFC LOW TO TRACK ROUGHLY FROM SE IL TO SE LWR MI ON THU              
WHICH WOULD KEEP HEAVIER SNOW TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST. PREFER TO                  
KEEP CHC POPS FOR LGT SNOW GOING FOR NOW. AS THIS SYSTEM PULLS OUT              
THU NGT...WL BE WATCHING THE NXT SRN STREAM STORM GETTING ITS ACT               
TOGETHER OVR THE SRN PLAINS. WAY TOO EARLY TO TELL THE EVENTUAL                 
TRACK OF THIS STORM ALTHO THE ECMWF AND GFS ARE TRENDING THE BULK               
OF THE STORM`S IMPACT WOULD AGAIN BE TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST. HAVE                
PLACED CHC POPS IN THE FCST FOR FRI AS A STARTING POINT.                        
AVIATION...LOW IFR WEATHER EXPECTED JUST ABOUT EVERYWHERE TONIGHT               
AND EARLY SATURDAY.                                                             
MARINE...SCA ISSUED SATURDAY AFTEROON THROUGH SUNDAY. GALE                      
WARNINGS POSSIBLE SUNDAY.                                                       
&&                                                                              
.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM SATURDAY                                          
WIZ005-010>013-018>021-030-031-035>040-045-048>050-073-074-                     
WINTER STORM WATCH SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON                    
WIZ005-010>012-018-019-                                                         
WINTER STORM WATCH SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING                      
WIZ020-030-031-035>037-045-                                                     
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</pre> wi                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI                                           
927 PM CST THU DEC 20 2007                                                      
.UPDATE...                                                                      
LATEST RUC SOUNDINGS INDICATE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE DEPTH TO DECREASE              
FROM WEST TO EAST TONIGHT ACROSS THE AREA. SO GREATEST THREAT FOR               
FZDZ LOOKS TO REMAIN TO THE EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. RADAR                
RETURNS OVER THE PAST HOUR HAVE BEEN DIMINISHING ACROSS THE EASTERN             
COUNTIES...BUT CALLS STILL INDICATE VERY LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE/FREEZING            
DRIZZLE STILL OCCURRING WITH MOST OF THE SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES              
FOUND NORTH OF HIGHWAY 29. VISIBILITIES HAVE HELD UP IN THE ONE                 
HALF TO ONE MILE RANGE ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE DENSE FOG                
ADVISORY AREA FOR MOST OF THE EVENING. BUT ACROSS NORTHEAST IOWA ONE            
QUARTER OR LESS IS BEING REPORTED. WITH CONTINUED SOUTHEAST FLOW                
STILL EXPECT WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG ACROSS THE WESTERN ZONES                      
OVERNIGHT AND INTO FRIDAY MORNING. ALL IN ALL GRIDS LOOKS TO BE IN              
GOOD SHAPE AND PLAN NO MAJOR CHANGES TO ONGOING FORECAST.                       
&&                                                                              
JLR                                                                             
.PREV DISCUSSION...                                                             
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT                                      
FORECAST CONCERNS THIS PACKAGE...DENSE FOG/DZ/FZDZ TONIGHT...                   
POTENTIAL WINTER STORM CENTERED ON SAT/SAT NIGHT.                               
DATA ANALYSIS AT 18Z HAD ONE LOW PRESSURE CENTERED OVER ALB AND                 
A WEAKER ONE OVER THE LA/AR AREA. BROAD SOUTH/SOUTHEAST FLOW AHEAD              
OF THESE LOWS WAS PUSHING WARM/MORE MOIST AIR NORTH INTO THE REGION.            
DEW POINTS INTO THE UPPER 20S/LOW 30S ACROSS MUCH OF IA/SOUTHERN                
WI/NORTHERN IL. FOG-PRODUCT/VIS IMAGERY/SFC OBS SHOWING LOW STRATUS             
DECK ADVECTING/EXPANDING NORTH ACROSS AREA ALONG AND EAST OF I-35.              
VSBYS ALREADY LESS THAN 2SM IN FOG OVER THE WEST HALF OF THE                    
FORECAST AREA AS THE INCREASING MOIST AIRMASS IS ADVECTED NORTH OVER            
THE SNOW COVERED LANDSCAPE. EARLY AFTERNOON TEMPS IN THE LOW/MID                
30S...ADDING TO THE BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE WITH SOME MELTING SNOW.             
NO MAJOR ERRORS NOTED WITH 20/12Z NAM/GFS INITIALIZATIONS...WITH                
SOLUTIONS MORE SIMILAR TO EACH OTHER THAN THEIR RUNS OF 12 AND 24HRS            
AGO. GFS TRENDING TOWARD THE STRONGER...MORE PHASED ECMWF/UKMET/NAM             
SOLUTIONS WITH THE TROUGH AS IT LIFTS THRU THE UPPER MIDWEST SAT/               
SUN. NAM STILL THE STRONGEST...WITH GFS/ECMWF/UKMET OFFERING A                  
RATHER GOOD CONSENSUS AT THE SFC/500MB AT 12Z SUN. DPROG/DT OF 500MB            
HGTS AT 20/12Z SHOWED NAM/GFS RUNS OF 18/12Z AND 19/12Z VERIFIED                
REASONABLY WELL ACROSS NOAM/EASTERN PAC. MODELS HAVE TRENDED TOWARD             
THE STRONGER LOOK OF NAM WITH THE ENERGY OFF THE CA COAST WHILE                 
TRENDING TOWARD THE GFS WITH THE NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY OVER BC.                
THRU 36HRS...NAM SHOWS THE BETTER RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY WIT THE                
SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY INTO AZ/NM WHILE GFS SHOWS THE BETTER                    
CONSISTENCY WITH THE NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY INTO MT/SASKAT. FOR 36-             
84HRS MODELS HAVE CONVERGED ON A COMMON SOLUTION WITH THE SOUTHERN              
STREAM ENERGY LIFTING TO MO/AR WHILE CONSIDERABLE DIFFERENCE STILL              
REMAIN WITH THE NORTHERN STREAM/DEVELOPING UPPER LOW OVER THE                   
NORTHERN PLAINS/WESTERN GREAT LAKES. TREND IS TOWARD ECMWF IN THIS              
TIME-FRAME...WITH 20/00Z ECMWF OFFERING A REASONABLE COMPROMISE OF              
LATEST NAM/GFS SOLUTIONS AT 60/72HRS AS NORTHERN/SOUTHERN STREAM                
PHASE. CHECK OF OBS VS. MODEL DATA AT 18Z SHOWED NAM/GFS REASONABLE             
WITH THE SFC MASS FIELDS ACROSS CENTRAL NOAM. PER WV IMAGERY...                 
MODELS LOOK TO HAVE GOOD DEPICTIONS OF THE SHORTWAVE FEATURES OVER              
NOAM/EASTERN PAC...WITH A MODEL COMPROMISE PERHAPS A BIT BETTER                 
THAN EITHER NAM/GFS ALONE. GOOD DARKENING SEEN IN WV IMAGERY WITH               
THE SHORTWAVE COMING ON THE CA COAST. WITH ALL THE MODEL VARIABILITY            
OF LATE AND 18Z DATA TENDING TO SUPPORT A MODEL COMPROMISE...PREFER             
THAT SOLUTION THIS CYCLE. GIVEN DEPENDENCE OF FORECAST ON NUANCES               
OF NORTHERN/SOUTHERN STREAM PHASING...SHORT-TERM FORECAST CONFIDENCE            
AVERAGE AT BEST.                                                                
FOR THE SHORT TERM...SOUTH/SOUTHEAST WINDS TONIGHT WILL CONTINUE TO             
ADVECT MOISTURE NORTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA...OVER THE SNOW PACK AND              
UNDER AN INVERSION NEAR 850MB. WITH VSBYS ALREADY LOW AND THE                   
CONTINUED LOADING OF THE SUB-INVERSION LAYER WITH MOISTURE...WILL               
ISSUE A DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR TONIGHT INTO FRI MORNING FOR AREAS               
WEST OF THE MS RIVER. LOW CLOUD/FOG BLANKET AND CONTINUED LOW LEVEL             
WARM ADVECTION...TEMPS TO BE NEARLY STEADY TONIGHT NEAR THE                     
FREEZING MARK. WITH WEAK CONVERGENCE/LIFT IN THE MOIST SFC-850MB                
LAYER...PATCHY DZ/FZDZ STILL LOOKS REASONABLE TONIGHT. AS DEPTH OF              
MOISTURE DECREASES FROM WEST TO EAST LATER TONIGHT...THREAT OF                  
DZ/FZDZ WILL DIMINISH AS WELL...AND THIS ALREADY DEPICTED IN GRIDS.             
WITH CONTINUED MOIST SOUTH WINDS OVER THE SNOW COVER FRI...FOG WILL             
PERSIST THRU MUCH OF THE DAY AND ADVISORY MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED               
INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON...MUCH LIKE WED.                                       
ATTENTION QUICKLY TURNS TO WEEKEND SYSTEM AND POTENTIAL FOR                     
SIGNIFICANT SNOW FOLLOWED BY STRONG WEST/NORTHWEST WINDS. LATEST                
MODEL SUITE/ENSEMBLES HAVE TRENDED STRONGER/MORE PHASED WITH THE                
NORTHERN/SOUTHERN STREAMS AS THE SHORTWAVES CROSS THE MID MS                    
VALLEY AND UPPER MIDWEST. THIS MORE PHASED SOLUTION BRINGS DEEPER               
MOISTURE /4-5 G/KG/ AND DEEPER/STRONGER 850-500MB FN/QG CONVERGENCE             
NORTHWARD INTO THE FORECAST AREA CENTERED ON 00Z SUN. THIS COUPLED              
WITH STRONGER PV ADVECTION AND 300MB AGEOSTROPHIC FLOW/DIVERGENCE               
ALOFT. SOUNDINGS INITIALLY SUPPORT PRECIP AS SNOW OVER THE NORTHWEST            
HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA SAT MORNING...TO RAIN OVER THE SOUTHEAST              
END. APPEARS TO BE ONLY SMALL CHANCES OF MIXED/FREEZING PRECIP TYPES            
WITH THIS SYSTEM AS SOUNDINGS SHOW AIRMASS WARMER THAN 0C MIXED TO              
THE SFC. DEEP DYNAMIC LIFT/COOLING OF THE AIRMASS AHEAD OF THE                  
EJECTING SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE THEN LOOKS TO QUICKLY COOL                   
THE COLUMN FROM THE TOP DOWN AND CHANGE AND RA/SN MIX TO ALL SNOW               
LATE SAT MORNING/AFTN. GIVEN VERY DYNAMIC TREND OF THIS SYSTEM /SFC             
LOW DEEPENS ABOUT 14MB FROM 00Z SUN TO 12Z SUN/...THE TREND TOWARD A            
STRONGER MORE PHASED SOLUTION...AND POTENTIAL IMPACT ON A MAJOR                 
HOLIDAY TRAVEL WEEKEND...ISSUED A WINTER STORM WATCH FOR THE                    
SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE FORECAST AREA FOR SAT AFTERNOON/NIGHT AS A                
START. AS DETAILS BECOME CLEARER...POTENTIAL FOR THE WATCH TO BE                
EXPANDED NORTH/EAST WITH LATER ISSUANCES. WITH THE RAPIDLY DEEPENING            
LOW SAT NIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE AREA INCREASES BY 12Z SUN              
WITH STRONG/GUSTY WEST/NORTHWEST WINDS IN THE WAKE OF THE LOW FOR               
LATE SAT NIGHT/MUCH OF SUNDAY. MAY NEED TO EXPEND WATCH OR ANY LATER            
HEADLINES INTO SUNDAY DUE TO STRONG WINDS CREATING BLOWING/DRIFTING             
SNOW. WITH A BETTER CONSENSUS FOR THE STRONGER SYSTEM...RAISED POPS             
FOR MUCH THE SAT/SAT NIGHT PERIOD INTO LIKELY/CATEGORICAL RANGES.               
POTENTIAL FOR WRAP-AROUND DEFORMATION BAND OF -SN TO REMAIN OVER THE            
AREA ON SUN AND RAISED -SN CHANCES ON SUN AS WELL.                              
WITH CLOUD/FOG BLANKET...FAVORED WARMER OF GUIDANCE LOWS TONIGHT                
WITH NEAR STEADY TEMPS. WITH CLOUDS/FOG FRI...TRENDED TOWARD COOLER             
OF GUIDANCE HIGHS. FAVORED A BLEND OF GUIDANCE LOWS/HIGHS FRI                   
NIGHT/SAT...WITH FALLING TEMPS DURING THE DAY SAT. TRENDED TOWARD               
COLDER OF GUIDANCE LOWS SAT NIGHT AS COLD AIR POURS IN AND THE                  
UPPER LOW DROPS ACROSS THE REGION. PREFERRED A BLEND OF GFS MEX/                
ENSEMBLE MOS AND HPC GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS/LOWS SUN/SUN NIGHT.                     
.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY                                            
20/00Z MEDIUM RANGE MODELS/ENSEMBLE MEAN OFFER A MODEST CONSENSUS               
WITH EACH OTHER FOR MON-THU...BUT DIFFERENCES IN TIMING/STRENGTH OF             
THE SHORTWAVE TROUGHS INCREASES THRU THE PERIOD. RUN-TO-RUN                     
CONSISTENCY OF TIMING/STRENGTH DETAILS BY TUE AND BEYOND IS QUITE               
LOW. THIS NOT UNEXPECTED GIVEN MODELS STILL STRUGGLING WITH THE                 
NORTHERN/SOUTHERN STREAM BALANCE OF ENERGY WITH THE SYSTEM THIS                 
WEEKEND AND NUMEROUS STRONGER SHORTWAVE TROUGHS ACROSS THE CONUS FOR            
NEXT WEEK. THUS...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IN THE LONG TERM ON THE LOW               
SIDE THIS CYCLE. GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN DOES TREND TOWARD A MODEL BLEND/             
COMPROMISE OF THE GFS/ECMWF/UKMET RUNS...AT LEAST WITH TIMING OF                
FEATURES. WHAT MODEL CONSENSUS THERE IS INDICATES A RATHER ACTIVE               
FLOW PATTERN ACROSS NOAM THRU NEXT WEEK...ESPECIALLY THE SOUTHERN               
STREAM. UPPER MIDWEST LOOKS TO BE CAUGHT UNDER SPLIT FLOW MON/TUE               
WITH A COLD SFC HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE SLIDING ACROSS THE REGION...FOR             
DRY...QUIET WEATHER. FOR WED/THU ECMWF AND TO A LESSER DEGREE GFS               
ENSEMBLE MEAN TRENDING TOWARD SOME PHASING OF THE NORTHERN/SOUTHERN             
STREAMS AND A SIGNIFICANT TROUGH LIFTING NORTHEAST ACROSS THE                   
CENTRAL CONUS. UKMET/CAN GEM/20/06Z GFS RUN LOOK TO MAINTAIN MORE OF            
A SPLIT FLOW AND BULK OF THE ACTIVE WEATHER SOUTH OF THE AREA. HPC              
TRENDED TOWARD A MODEL COMPROMISE WEIGHTED TOWARD THE USUALLY BETTER            
ECMWF AND ENSEMBLES FOR WED/THU. SMALL SNOW CHANCES WED INTO THU                
LOOKS REASONABLE FOR NOW GIVEN RANGE MODEL SOLUTIONS AND LOWER                  
FORECAST CONFIDENCE BY DAYS 6/7 FOR ANY ONE PARTICULAR OUTCOME.                 
FAVORED A BLEND OF GFS MEX/ENSEMBLE MOS AND HPC GUIDANCE MAXES/MINS             
THRU THE PERIOD.                                                                
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...TONIGHT AND FRIDAY                                                  
LOW CLOUDS AND/OR FOG EXPECTED TO PERSIST ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH               
TONIGHT AND INTO FRIDAY. THIS BASED ON EXPANSE OF STRATUS CONTINUING            
TO MOVE NORTHWARD FROM IOWA AND ILLINOIS. IN FACT...BASED ON CURRENT            
CONDITIONS AND LOCAL STUDY OF DENSE FOG EVENTS...FORECAST CONFIDENCE            
WAS HIGH FOR KRST TAF SITE TO HAVE VISIBILITY NEAR 1/4 MILE DURING              
LARGE PORTIONS OF 18Z 20DEC07 TAF VALID TIME. SOME IMPROVEMENT                  
SHOULD OCCUR AFTER 16Z 21DEC07. LOOKING AHEAD...POTENTIAL FOR WINTRY            
PRECIPITATION EVENT TO IMPACT BOTH KRST AND KLSE TAF SITES AND IN               
FACT MOST OF THE AIRPORTS IN THE FORECAST AREA THIS WEEKEND.                    
&&                                                                              
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
WI...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE                    
     SATURDAY NIGHT FOR WIZ053-WIZ054-WIZ055-WIZ061.                            
MN...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CST FRIDAY FOR MNZ079-MNZ086-               
     MNZ087-MNZ088-MNZ094-MNZ095-MNZ096.                                        
IA...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CST FRIDAY FOR IAZ008-IAZ009-               
     IAZ010-IAZ011-IAZ018-IAZ019-IAZ029-IAZ030.                                 
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE                    
     SATURDAY NIGHT FOR IAZ008-IAZ009-IAZ010-IAZ011-IAZ018-                     
     IAZ019-IAZ029-IAZ030.                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHORT/LONG TERM...RRS                                                           
AVIATION..........THOMPSON                                                      
</pre> wi                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI                                           
1026 AM CST THU DEC 20 2007                                                     
.UPDATE...PRIMARY CONCERN WAS WITH DENSE FOG ACROSS PARTS OF                    
SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA AND NORTHEAST IOWA TODAY. SATELLITE IMAGERY                 
INDICATED STRATUS EXPANDING STEADILY NORTHWARD INTO FORECAST AREA               
THIS MORNING. VISIBILITY LOWERS TO AS LOW AS 1/4 MILE PER 16Z                   
OBSERVATION AT KOLZ.                                                            
LATEST RUC AND 12Z 20DEC07 NAM/WRF SUPPORTED LOW CLOUDS AND FOG TO              
CONTINUE PUSHING NORTHWARD TODAY ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA.               
BASED ON CURRENT OBSERVATIONS...INCLUDED FOG ACROSS PARTS OF                    
SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA AND NORTHEAST IOWA REST OF TODAY.                           
WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR VISIBILITY TRENDS IN CASE WIDESPREAD 1/4               
MILE SCENARIO DEVELOPS. FOR NOW...HAVE UPDATED CURRENT DATA BASE                
AND WILL UPDATE ZONE FORECASTS FOR LATEST TRENDS.                               
&&                                                                              
THOMPSON                                                                        
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 340 AM CST THU DEC 20 2007/                         
SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT                                       
FORECAST FOCUS IN THE SHORT-TERM CENTERS ON THE PCPN CHANCES FOR                
TODAY...AND THEN WHAT THE WEEKEND SYSTEM WILL DO.                               
TODAY...A RELATIVE WEAK AND PROGRESSIVE 500 MB SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL            
TRACK EAST ACROSS THE REGION. DESPITE ITS NON-DESCRIPT                          
APPEARANCE...THIS FEATURE WILL BRING SOME QG CONVERGENCE THROUGH THE            
LAYERS WITH IT...ALONG WITH SOME BROAD LOW LEVEL WARMING ON THE                 
925:700 MB SFCS. SOME ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE IS ALSO INDICATED AHEAD OF             
THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH...IN THE 285:300 K SFCS. THE THERMODYNAMIC LIFT            
PEAKS THIS AFTERNOON ALONG AND EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI                          
RIVER...GENERALLY EXITING EAST BETWEEN 00-06Z. SO...THERE IS SOME               
LIFT TO WORK WITH...AND POTENTIALLY SOME PCPN...ALL DEPENDING ON HOW            
MUCH SATURATION THERE WILL BE. A WEST-EAST RUNNING X-SECTION HAS THE            
CURRENT HIGH/MID LEVEL SATURATION PUSHING EAST BY THIS                          
AFTERNOON...WITH AN INCREASE IN THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE //800MB TO               
THE SFC// THIS AFTERNOON. THE MOISTURE ISN/T DEEP ENOUGH TO SUPPORT             
ANY SIGNIFICANT PCPN PROCESSES...BUT IT IS FOR DRIZZLE/FREEZING                 
DRIZZLE. SO...WITH SOME BROADSCALE LIFT THROUGH THE TOP OF THIS                 
LAYER...PATCHY DRIZZLE/FREEZING DRIZZLE WILL BE POSSIBLE...MOSTLY               
THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING...AND MOSTLY ALONG AND EAST OF THE             
MISSISSIPPI RIVER.                                                              
NOW...ON TO THE MUCH TALKED ABOUT STORM SYSTEM FOR THE WEEKEND. THE             
MODELS HAVE CERTAINLY HAD THEIR FUN WITH US...WHILE CONTINUING TO               
BRING THE REGION SOME PCPN...WHAT AND WHERE HAS VARIED ALMOST ON A              
DAY TO DAY...RUN TO RUN BASIS. NOW THAT THE SYSTEM HAS MOVED INTO               
THE SHORT-TERM...VARIANCES CONTINUE. I CERTAINLY DIDN/T ASK SANTA               
FOR THIS. ANYWAY...THE MODELS DO SEEM TO BE SETTLING MORE ON A SPLIT            
500 MB FLOW TYPE SYSTEM...THAT MERGES TOGETHER AS IT PASSES INTO THE            
GREAT LAKES...STRENGTHENING FOR ITS TREK ACROSS THE NEW ENGLAND                 
STATES. HOWEVER...THE DEVELOPMENT OF THEIR SFC LOWS ARE                         
DIFFERENT...AND SO IS THEIR RESULTING QPF. THE NAM AND EC WOULD                 
DEVELOP A SINGLE LOW CENTER...OVER WI/ILL BY 00Z SUN. THE GFS KEEPS             
THIS SYSTEM SPLIT YET...WITH LOW CENTERS OVER SOUTHERN CANADA AND               
ARK. EVENTUALLY THESE SOLUTION COME TOGETHER AS THE STORM MOVES                 
EAST. THE 21Z SREF IS SIMILAR TO THE GFS WITH PLACEMENT OF ITS LOW              
CENTERS. THE GFS HAS BEEN FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH A TWO-HEADED SYSTEM            
AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE GREAT LAKE STATES...ALTHOUGH A BIT SLOWER               
OVER ITS PAST FEW RUNS. THE EC HAS BEEN VARIABLE...BUT HAS MOVED                
FROM TWO LOWS TO ONE AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION...WHILE THE NAM              
HAS HAD ONE LOW...JUST MOVED IT FARTHER SOUTH. IT WOULD SEEM THAT               
THE GFS HAS BEEN MORE CONSISTENT...AND IS FAVORED BY THE ENSEMBLES.             
THE DIFFERENCES ARE SIGNIFICANT IN THAT THE NAM/EC WOULD BRING                  
STRONGER FORCING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...ALONG WITH THE                      
DEFORMATION PCPN BAND WEST/NORTH OF THE SFC LOW. AS A RESULT...MORE             
QPF AND MORE SNOW POTENTIAL. THE GFS...CONVERSELY...IS MUCH LESS IN             
ITS QPF. WITH THE NAM...COBB OUTPUT WOULD PUT 3-5 INCHES ACROSS MUCH            
OF THE AREA. THE GFS IS LESS THAN AN INCH. THE SREF WOULD SUGGEST               
1-2 INCHES...AND THE EC 2-4. DON/T THINK GOING TOWARD THE HIGH                  
END...OR THE LOW END...IS THE WAY TO GO. WITH SUCH VARIABILITY IN               
THE MODEL SOLUTIONS...WILL OPT WITH SOMETHING IN THE MIDDLE...AND               
ALLOW LATER FORECASTS TO ADJUST UP OR DOWN...AS THE CASE MAY BE. ONE            
THING THE MODELS DO AGREE ON IS THAT SATURDAY/SAT EVENING WILL BE               
THE BEST TIME FOR SOME ACCUMULATING PCPN.                                       
BEFORE GETTING TO SNOW AMOUNTS...OR LACK THERE OFF...PRECIPITATION              
TYPE NEEDS TO BE QUESTIONED. AS THEY HAVE BEEN DOING...THE MODELS               
CONTINUE TO PULL CONSIDERABLE WARM AIR NORTHWARD AHEAD OF THE                   
SYSTEM...AND THEN A QUICK COOL DOWN BEHIND THE ASSOCIATED COLD                  
FRONT. LOOKING AT A NORTHWEST-SOUTHEAST RUNNING X-SECTION...THE NAM             
IS BY FAR THE WARMEST MODEL...SURGING +4 C AIR IN THE 900:850 MB                
LAYER NORTH OF RST AT 00Z SAT...WITH THE EC/GFS CLOSER TO +1. THE               
MODELS COOL THIS LAYER DOWN AS THE SYSTEM TRANSITIONS EAST...                   
BUT THE NAM STILL STAYS FAIRLY WARM...WITH A DEEP //800 MB TO THE               
SFC// ABOVE ZERO LAYER FROM LSE TO THE SOUTHEAST AT 18Z SAT. BY 00Z             
ALL MODELS ARE COOL. THINK THE NAM MIGHT BE TOO AGGRESSIVE WITH THIS            
WARMING...AND WILL LEAN TOWARD THE EC/GFS IN THIS STEAD. STILL...THE            
TEMP PROFILES POINT TO SOME RAIN...OR RAIN/SNOW FOR PARTS OF                    
NORTHEAST IOWA/SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES                         
IN...GRADUALLY CHANGING OVER TO SNOW BY SAT AFTERNOON. THIS TREND IS            
SHOWN WELL IN THE 21Z SREF DOMINANT PCPN TYPE DEPICTION. AS HAS BEEN            
THE CASE OVER THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS...THESE TEMP PROFILES SUPPORT               
EITHER RAIN OR SNOW...AND NOT SLEET OR FREEZING RAIN.                           
AS FOR SNOW TOTALS...THE GREATER TOTALS WILL COME WHERE                         
THE BEST FORCING COMES TOGETHER WITH THE COLDER AIR. SEEING AS THE              
FORECAST AREA WILL LIKELY LIE IN THIS TRANSITION ZONE ADDS FURTHER              
DIFFICULTLY IN TRYING TO PINPOINT TOTALS. AS MENTIONED                          
PREVIOUSLY...SAT/SAT EVENING APPEARS TO BE THE BEST TIME FOR                    
ACCUMULATIONS...AND WILL TAKE A MIDDLE OF THE ROAD APPROACH FOR                 
AMOUNTS FOR NOW. 2 TO 4 INCHES SEEMS TO BE A REASONABLE PLACE TO                
START. LATEST HPC GUIDANCE IS FOLLOWING THE EC...WHICH WOULD PUT THE            
BETTER ACCUMS OVER CENTRAL/EASTERN WI INTO EASTERN IA. IF THE NAM               
HAS ITS WAY...IT WOULD BE OVER NORTHWEST WI INTO CENTRAL IA. TOUGH              
CALL...AND HATE TO BE WISHY WASHY...BUT MODEL CONFIDENCE DOES NOT               
LEND ITSELF TO ANYTHING TOO SPECIFIC AT THIS MOMENT.                            
SO...CONFIDENCE REMAINS HIGH THAT THE REGION WILL RECEIVE SOME                  
PRECIPITATION WITH THIS SYSTEM...CONFIDENCE ON AMOUNTS ARE NOT. A               
SNOW OR SNOW/RAIN OR EVEN JUST RAIN FOR AWHILE ALSO APPEARS QUITE               
LIKELY. JUST HOW FAR WEST AND NORTH THIS MIX OR RAIN WILL EXTEND IS             
NOT AS CLEAR. IT CERTAINLY HAS BEEN A VERY INTERESTING...BUT                    
FRUSTRATING...SYSTEM TO TRY TO FORECAST.                                        
LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY                                            
THE STORM SYSTEM CONTINUES TO PULL OFF TO THE EAST ON SUNDAY. SOME              
LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES WILL BE POSSIBLE POST THE SYSTEM...IN THE WRAP              
AROUND REGION OF THE LOW...BUT MOSTLY TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE              
LOCAL AREA. HIGH PRESSURE THEN LOOKS TO BUILD IN FOR XMAS                       
EVE/XMAS...AND SHOULD BRING SOME QUIET AND MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS              
FOR THE HOLIDAY. FOR WED...A 500 MB TROUGH WILL START TO APPROACH               
THE REGION...HOWEVER CURRENT INDICATIONS BY THE GFS/EC IS TO TAKE               
THE BULK OF THE ASSOCIATED SHORTWAVE ENERGY EITHER NORTH OR SOUTH OF            
THE LOCAL AREA.                                                                 
AVIATION...                                                                     
A WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON               
AND EVENING. ENOUGH FORCING WILL OCCUR FROM THIS WAVE TO POSSIBLY               
PRODUCE SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT              
MVFR CEILINGS SHOULD DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AS THE WAVE APPROACHES.             
THE CLOUD LAYER DOES NOT LOOK TO RESIDE IN COLD ENOUGH TEMPERATURES             
TO HAVE ICE IN IT...SO ANY PRECIPITATION THAT DEVELOPS WILL EITHER              
BE DRIZZLE OR FREEZING DRIZZLE DEPENDING ON SURFACE TEMPERATURES.               
SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL PUMP WARMER AND MOIST AIR INTO THE                
AREA OVERNIGHT WHICH IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN IFR CEILINGS                      
DEVELOPING. VISIBILITIES SHOULD REMAIN EITHER IFR OR MVFR THROUGH               
TODAY AND TONIGHT.                                                              
04                                                                              
&&                                                                              
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
WI...NONE.                                                                      
MN...NONE.                                                                      
IA...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
RIECK                                                                           
</pre> wi                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA                                       
1245 AM EST SAT DEC 22 2007                                                     
.AVIATION...(06Z TAFS)                                                          
WAA FOG AND STRATUS ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...BRINGING              
LIFR CONDITIONS AT BOTH TERMINALS. WEAK LL OMEGA COLLOCATED WITH A              
WEAK UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE HAS ALLOWED AREAS OF -DZ TO ALSO DEVELOP.              
05Z OB AT SOUTH BEND HAS CONFIRMED SOME BREAKS IN LL VIS...AS 1SM               
HAS BEEN REPORTED. HOWEVER...EXPECT PREVAILING VIS AND CIGS TO                  
REMAIN IN THE LIFR CAT THROUGH MID MORNING AS WAA OVER AMPLE SNOW               
FIELD WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT FOG FORMATION. LOOK FOR IMPROVING                
CONDITIONS TO IFR FROM LATE MORNING ON SOUTH TO NORTH WITH                      
INTENSIFICATION OF THE LL WIND FIELD PER ADVANCING/DEEPENING SFC                
LOW PRESSURE. MAY EVEN SEE AREAS OF MVFR IN THE SOUTHEAST WHERE                 
SNOW COVER IS MINIMAL AND SHOULD BE NEARLY ERODED BY AFTERNOON.                 
COLD FRONT WILL ADVANCE TOWARD THE REGION TONIGHT AND ALLOW A                   
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THE END OF THE                
PERIOD. WILL SEE IMPROVING CONDITIONS SUNDAY AS CAA AND DRY AIR                 
PUSHES INTO THE REGION. THIS WILL ALLOW VAST IMPROVEMENT IN CIGS                
AND VISBYS.                                                                     
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 603 PM EST FRI DEC 21 2007/                         
UPDATE/AVIATION...                                                              
1ST PD GRIDS WERE OBVIOUSLY CORRUPT AND RECREATED BUT DRIVING GIST              
OF EARLY UPDATE IS TO GET NEEDED DENSE FOG ADVISORY OUT ASAP. 22Z               
SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS SIG LL MSTR SITTING JUST SOUTH ACRS CNTRL IN/SW              
OH AND SLOWLY ADVTG NWD AND WILL LEAD TO SIGNIFICANT ADVECTIVE DENSE            
FOG OVERTOP EXISTING SNOWPACK AND COLD GROUND. HAVE CONSIDERABLE                
DOUBTS AS TO THE VALIDITY OF WMFNT MIXING THROUGH CWA BY MORNING AND            
IMPLIED SLOWLY RISING TEMPS ESP IN LIGHT OF RUC HOLDING LARGE SCALE             
PRES FALLS INADV OF SRN PLAINS CYCLONE WELL WEST OVERNIGHT BUT WILL             
LEAVE THAT FOR LIKELY ADDNL UPDATE LTR THIS EVENING W/BTR SHOT OF               
SHOWER DVLPMNT XPCD WRN HALF IN ASSOCN/W INCREASING LARGE SCALE                 
ISENTROPIC ASCENT.                                                              
SHORT TERM (TONIGHT AND SATURDAY)...                                            
FOCUS TONIGHT WILL BE ON ADVANCING AREA OF INCREASED DEWPOINTS AND              
ANTICIPATED LOWER VISIBILITIES IN FOG. LOCATIONS SEEING DEWPTS IN               
THE 34 DEGREE OR HIGHER RANGE TO THE SOUTH AND WEST ARE SEEING THE              
DENSER FOG HOLDING ON. RUC40/NAM12 ALL SHOWING SLOWER ARRIVAL OF                
HIGHER DEWPOINTS...WITH BEST ADVECTION NOT OCCURRING TILL CLOSER                
TO 6Z IN THE SW AND SPREADING NORTH OVERNIGHT. AS A RESULT WILL                 
MAKE FURTHER ADJUSTMENTS AND SLOW DOWN ONSET OF FOG AND DRIZZLE.                
KIWX 88D SHOWS SOME LIGHT RETURNS THAT MAY REACH THE GROUND IN THE              
FORM OF A BIT OF DRIZZLE OR FLURRIES. SOME CONCERNS AS STUBBORN AS              
THE DRIER FLOW IS INTO THE AREA THAT FOG MAY STRUGGLE TO GET TOO                
FAR NORTH. WILL REMAIN OPTIMISTIC AS 925/850 MB WINDS RAMP UP                   
LATER TONIGHT AND SHOULD ALLOW THE MSTR TO GET ON THE MOVE.                     
ON SATURDAY...CONTINUATION OF SNOWMELT AND HIGHER DEWPTS WILL                   
CONTINUE IN INCREASING S TO SW FLOW. NAM/GFS/SREF HAVE ALL TRENDED              
SLOWER WITH ARRIVAL OF PRECIP NOT BRINGING IN TILL LIKELY OUTSIDE               
THIS PERIOD. DID NOT WANT TO DROP ALL POPS AT THIS POINT SO WENT                
DRASTIC DOWNWARD TREND AND REPOSITION OF BEST CHC FOR ANY PRECIP                
BY LATE AFTERNOON. WITH SLOWER ARRIVAL OF PRECIP...WARMER TEMPS                 
MAY BE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY IF FOG CAN LIFT OUT SOONER OR DOESN`T                
MATERIALIZE AS MUCH. FOR NOW HAVE LEFT THINGS ALONE TEMP WISE.                  
LONG TERM (SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)...                                    
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY                                                   
AMPLIFIED PATTERN ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CONUS WITH DEEP                
TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS AND RIDGING ACROSS THE EAST. SFC                  
WAVE MOVING UP FROM MID MS VALLEY TOWARDS LAKE MICHIGAN BY LATE                 
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY. SFC LOW MOVES THRU THE LP OF                  
MICHIGAN AN NORTH INTO CENTRAL ONTARIO BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON...BEFORE             
PULLING NORTHEAST INTO NORTHERN QUEBEC BY EARLY MONDAY. THERMAL                 
PROFILE ACROSS THE REGION SUGGESTS ALL RAIN THRU THE OVERNIGHT                  
BEFORE STARTING THE TRANSITION PERIOD AROUND DAYBREAK SUNDAY.                   
MODELS HAVING BEEN SLOWING THE SYSTEM DOWN AND HAVE THEREFORE                   
SLOWED THE PRECIP CHANGEOVER DOWN SOME AS WELL...AS THE H850 TEMPS              
DROP FROM +5 C TO BELOW 0C ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION BETWEEN                     
12-15Z. ANY WRAP AROUND OR LAKE ENHANCED PRECIP WILL BE SNOW THEN               
THROUGH THE LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON WITH VERY STRONG CAA                
INTO THE REGION. TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO DROP FROM LATE SATURDAY                 
NIGHT THRU SUNDAY NIGHT...FROM 40S LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO THE                 
20S BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON...AND TEENS FOR LOWS OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY               
MONDAY.                                                                         
SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE FOR THE SYSTEM TO WORK WITH WITH                
PWATS ABOVE 1 INCH EARLY SUNDAY...LIQUID QPF AMOUNTS WILL PUSH .5               
INCHES FOR MOST OF THE AREA...BUT VERY LITTLE SNOW ACCUMS EXPECTED              
THRU THE PERIOD. MAINLY WITH LAKE ENHANCED OR LAKE EFFECT ACROSS                
THE FAR NW PORTIONS OF THE AREA AND ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN TIER                
OF COUNTIES AS THE FLOW ACROSS THE LAKE BECOME MORE WESTERLY WITH               
TIME...MAYBE AN INCH OR TWO. UPPER LEVEL LOW STARTS TO PUSH INTO                
THE GREAT LAKES EARLY SUNDAY AND THRU THE DAY...VERY TIGHT                      
PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION WITH NORTHWEST/WEST FLOW                    
THROUGH THE DAY. GUSTY WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM EARLY SUNDAY                    
THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON. LAKE EFFECT SNOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN                  
TIER OF THE CWA WILL CONTINUE TO BE A POSSIBILITY WITH DELTA T/S                
REACHING LEVELS OF -15 OR MORE BY SUNDAY EVENING.                               
MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY                                                           
SPLIT FLOW ACROSS THE WEST BECOMES MORE CONFLUENT ACROSS THE                    
EASTERN CONUS...UPPER LEVEL LOW PUSHING EAST THRU THE ST LAW RVR                
VALLEY WITH ANOTHER SW CONUS SHRTWV PULLING OUT AND WEAKENING AS                
IT MOVES TO THE NORTHEAST. LARGE SFC HIGH ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE                 
GREAT LAKES/OH AND MS VALLEYS INTO TUESDAY...WITH SOME UPPER LEVEL              
RIDGING BUILDING ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY WITH                  
ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE SW CONUS. BELOW NORMAL TEMPS                   
EXPECTED MONDAY...SLIGHTLY WARMER AND NEAR SEASONAL VALUES OF                   
LOWER TO MID 30S FOR HIGHS. DRY THRU THE PERIOD...A SMALL CHANCE                
OF LAKE EFFECT ACROSS THE FAR NORTH EARLY MONDAY.                               
MID RANGE MODELS HAVING SOME ISSUES THRU THE END OF THE                         
PERIOD...SIGNIFICANT DISAGREEMENTS WITH RESPECT TO THE STRENGTH AND             
TIMING BUT THE LATEST GFS AND THE ENSEMBLE MEANS HAVE BEEN                      
SHOWING SOME SIGNIFICANT WINTRY POTENTIAL TOWARDS THE END OF THE                
MONTH. FIRST POTENTIAL SIGNIFICANT SYSTEM WILL BE WEDNESDAY NIGHT               
INTO THURSDAY TIMEFRAME. CUT-OFF LOW PUSHES EAST INTO THE                       
RIDGE...POSSIBLE NEG TILT WITH SFC LOW MOVING FROM THE LOWER MS                 
VALLEY INTO THE REGION. MOISTURE SHOULD NOT BE A CONCERN WITH THE               
GULF APPEARING TO BE OPEN...PWATS AT OR MORE THAN DOUBLE NORMAL                 
FOR THE TIME OF YEAR. THE TRACK STILL UNCERTAIN...WILL LIMIT THE                
DETAILS...BUT CURRENT BUFKIT AND MODEL THERMAL PROFILES WOULD                   
SUGGEST ALL SNOW. HAVE UPPED POPS TO 50 THRU THE PERIOD WITH                    
HIGHER CONFIDENCE THAT A SYSTEM WILL BE THERE...BUT LOWER                       
CONFIDENCE ON TRACK AND P-TYPE AS THE MODELS THIS SEASON HAVE HAD               
SOME SIGNIFICANT SHIFTS OVER TIME OF UP TO 300-500 MILES.                       
ANOTHER DIGGING UPPER LEVEL LOW INTO THE SOUTHWEST LATE IN THE                  
WEEK...THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...WILL START KICK OUT AND WILL ALLOW                
FOR THE SECOND POTENTIAL WINTER SYSTEM BY THE WEEKEND. PRECIP                   
COULD START AS SOON AS FRI NIGHT/SATURDAY...WITH TRACK AND P-TYPE               
HIGHLY UNCERTAIN...STILL 6-7 DAYS OR MORE OUT MUCH TO CHANGE MOST               
LIKELY. STRONG MODEL SUPPORT FROM THE GFS ENSEMBLES.                            
&&                                                                              
.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
IN...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST /9 AM CST/ THIS MORNING FOR             
     INZ003>005-008-009-012-014-016>018.                                        
     DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR INZ006-007.           
     DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR INZ013-015-             
     020-022>027-032>034.                                                       
MI...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR MIZ077>081.           
OH...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR OHZ004-005-            
     015-016.                                                                   
     DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR OHZ001-002.           
     DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR OHZ024-025.             
LM...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHORT TERM...FISHER                                                             
LONG TERM...SCHOTT                                                              
UPDATE...HOLSTEN                                                                
AVIATION...CHAMBERLAIN                                                          
</pre> in                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA                                          
347 AM CST SAT DEC 22 2007                                                      
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
IMPENDING SYSTEM CURRENTLY PULLING OUT OF ROCKIES WITH SEVERAL SHRT             
WVS ROTATING AROUND UPPER LOW NEAR NM/CO BORDER.  ANOTHER WEAKER WV             
NOTED INTO NWRN IA TRYING TO SPREAD LGT PCPN INTO THAT AREA.  VERY              
STRONG QG FORCING IN IMMEDIATE VICINITY OF THIS COMPACT LOW BUT HAS             
YET TO SPREAD TOO FAR INTO NE OR KS WITH SIGNIFICANT PCPN STILL                 
RELEGATED TO ERN CO/WRN KS.  NRN STREAM SHRT WV OVER SERN                       
SASKATCHEWAN WITH ASSOCIATED FORCING NOT A FACTOR FOR THE TIME                  
BEING.  08Z SFC ANLYS PLACES FRONTAL BOUNDARY FROM JUST W OF TWIN               
CITIES TO SUBTLE LOW JUST N OF LWD THEN TRAILING INTO OK.  BROAD                
PRES RISES NOTED THROUGHOUT PLAINS WITH VERY DRY UPSTREAM AIRMASS.              
&&                                                                              
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
OBVIOUS PRIMARY CONCERN WILL BE IMPACT OF WEEKEND STORM...BUT WILL              
HAVE TO DEAL WITH DENSE FOG ADVY FIRST.  WITH INCREASING NWLY WINDS             
ALREADY TO ICL-CIN-EST LINE WITH CFP HAVE SHIFTED ADVY EWD AND IS               
NOW IN EFFECT E OF THESE AREAS TIL 15Z AND BASICALLY I35 CORRIDOR               
EWD TIL 18Z.  TEMPS SHOULD BE FALLING SO FORECAST HIGHS ARE VERY                
CLOSE TO CURRENT READINGS.                                                      
REGARDING THE WINTER STORM...NAM SEEMED TO INITIALIZE JUST A TAD BIT            
BETTER AT 00Z WITH SLIGHTLY DEEPER FEATURES THROUGH DEPTH OF                    
ATMOSPHERE.  HOWEVER WILL BE FAVORING GFS AS WELL AS 00Z SPC WRF AND            
THEIR MORE WLY QPF SOLUTION.  CONFIDENCE NOT THE GREATEST WITH 00Z              
ECMWF AND 06Z NAM STILL GOING FARTHER E.  HOWEVER GFS...ALONG WITH              
06Z RUC...SEEM TO HAVE BETTER HANDLE ON CURRENT WX AFTER 06Z AND                
EXTRAPOLATION OF DEVELOPING DEF ZN INTO IA..  THIS WOULD SUGGEST                
THAT FARTHER W SOLUTION THE WAY TO GO WITH HEAVIER SNOWS BACK INTO              
DSM METRO AND POINTS S AND E.  MODEL BIASES OFTEN PLACE HEAVIER                 
ACCUMS TOO FAR SE...WITH THE NAM OFTEN SEEMING TO BE SHADING HIGHER             
QPF AMOUNTS TOO CLOSE TO CONVECTION AND NOT EMPHASIZING DEF ZN                  
ADEQUATELY.                                                                     
MUCH LIKE YESTERDAY...FORCING IN DENDRITIC LAYER SEEMS TO BE IN                 
H5/H6 LAYER OR AROUND 300/305K ISENT SFCS.  UVM IN THESE AREAS OF               
CONCERN SPREAD NEWD INTO IA BY 18Z BUILDING ON SE-NE ORIENTED BAND              
ALREADY DEVELOPING ON RADAR.  ALTHOUGH SOME THETA-E ADVECTION AND               
FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING IS NOTED...BRUNT OF UVM SEEMS TO BE DRIVEN              
BY DPVA AS SHRT WV LIFTS OUT.  THIS STILL RESULTS IN STRONG OVERALL             
QG FORCING INTO THE AFTN BEFORE REACHING FAR ERN PORTIONS THIS EVE.             
SERN FRINGE OF THIS AREA WILL SEE THETA-E LAPSE RATES AND EPV GOING             
NEGATIVE SO EXPECT STATIC STABILITY WILL BE QUITE LOW.  LIGHTNING               
HAS ALREADY BEEN OBSERVED NEAR LOW CORE AND WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED              
TO BRIEFLY SEE SOME CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS BEFORE STABILITY MIN MOVES              
INTO IL THIS EVE.  CURRENT SNOW TOTALS VARY FROM 4-7 INCHES IN THE              
WARNING...BUT COULD SEE ISOLD HIGHER AMOUNTS IF CONVECTION PANS OUT.            
THIS CONVECTION AND POTENTIAL LATENT HEAT RELEASE MAY BE ANOTHER                
REASON TO FAVOR MORE NWLY GFS SOLUTION WITH LOWER PRESSURES INTO                
COLDER AIR.  ALSO JUST NOTICED 06Z NAM HAS STRONG DENDRITIC FORCING             
BACK INTO ALO-OTM CORRIDOR THROUGH 06Z BUT QPF NOT FAR ENOUGH                   
WWD TO REFLECT THAT.  ANOTHER REASON TO FAVOR 00Z GFS.                          
HAVE SWITCHED PREVIOUS WATCH TO WINTER STORM WARNING AND ADVY.                  
WRNG IS ESSENTIALLY WHERE SNOW AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE 4 INCHES              
PLUS.  THIS FUDGES CRITERIA SOMEWHAT...BUT BLENDS WELL INTO ADJACENT            
HEADLINES AND AM NOT GOING TO WORRY ABOUT DETAILS CONSIDERING THE               
BLOWING SNOW POTENTIAL.  JUST TO THE NW...SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW ADVY            
IN EFFECT WHERE AMOUNTS SHOULD REACH 1-4".                                      
SFC PRESSURES GO FROM JUST ABOVE 1000MB THIS EVE TO 985 OR LESS BY              
MIDDAY SUN WHEN LOW REACHES GREAT LAKES.  THIS WILL REALLY CRANK THE            
WINDS UP WITH IMPRESSIVE ISALLOBARIC COMPONENT AND PRES GRADIENT                
LIKELY PUSHING WINDS INTO BLIZZARD WARNING POTENTIAL ERN HALF.  NRN             
IL LOOKS TO BE HIT ESPECIALLY HARD.  THIS WOULD BE LATE 2ND PERIOD              
SO WILL LEAVE THAT UPGRADE FOR LATER SHIFTS BUT WOULD NOT BE                    
SURPRISED IF IT IS REACHED EARLY SUN WITH PROJECTED GUSTS INTO THE              
LOWER/MIDDLE 30KTS.  EXPECT PLENTY OF WRAP AROUND STRATUS AND                   
POTENTIALLY FLURRIES CONTINUING LATER SUN AND SUN NIGHT.  NO CHANGES            
TO LATER PERIODS.                                                               
CONSIDERING STRENGTH OF CAA...SNOW COVER AND PERSISTENT LOW CLOUDS              
HAVE GONE JUST BELOW COOLEST GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS SUN.  DO NOT SEE                
MUCH THERMAL CHANGE SUN NIGHT WITH MORE STRATUS AND WINDS KEEPING               
THINGS MIXED SO ONLY WENT WITH SEVERAL DEGREE DIURNAL DROP TOWARD               
HIGHER END OF GUIDANCE.  LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LINGERS INTO MON AND                
WITH INVERSION STILL IN PLACE AROUND SOLAR MIN DO NOT SEE MUCH HOPE             
FOR REBOUND.  HAVE CLIPPED CURRENT MON FORECAST QUITE A BIT NOW                 
GOING AT LEAST A CATEGORY BELOW COOLEST GUIDANCE...WHICH IS A BLEND             
OF RAW TEMPS.  MAY HAVE TO GO EVEN FURTHER IN UPCOMING PACKAGES.                
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...22/06Z                                                              
LIFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST OVER MUCH OF THE AREA UNTIL THE EARLY              
MORNING HOURS WHEN A COLD FRONT WILL MIX IN DRIER AIR. THE FRONT                
WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY MIXED PRECIPITATION...CHANGING TO ALL SNOW               
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. HAVE INCLUDED MENTION OF BLOWING SNOW AS WELL            
FOR ALL SITES EXCEPT FOD WITH INCREASING NW WINDS THIS AFTERNOON AND            
EVENING.                                                                        
&&                                                                              
.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
DENSE FOG ADVY ALONG AND E OF CRESTON-BOONE-FOREST CITY LINE TIL                
15Z...AND LWD-DSM-AMW-HAMPTON LINE TIL 18Z.                                     
WINTER STORM WARNING BASICALLY ALONG AND EAST OF                                
CORNING-AMES-HAMPTON LINE 18Z-12Z.                                              
SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW ADVY BASICALLY ALONG AND EAST OF DNS-CIN-AXA              
LINE BLENDING INTO WARNING...15Z-12Z.                                           
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SMALL/ALBRECHT/KINNEY                                                           
</pre> ia                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME                                             
320 AM EST SAT DEC 22 2007                                                      
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE SOUTHEAST OF THE REGION TODAY. WARMER                  
AIR WILL BE PULLED NORTH ON INCREASING SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS AS A                 
COLD FRONT APPROACHES ON SUNDAY. THE FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH                    
SUNDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED BY GUSTY WINDS AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES BY TO                
THE NORTH ON MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN ON TUESDAY.                    
&&                                                                              
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...                                                 
MAIN CHALLENGE RIGHT OFF THE BAT IS THE SCU DECK SHROUDING MUCH OF              
THE CWA EARLY THIS MORNING AND TEMPS. SRG NOT HANDLING SCU DECK WELL            
AT ALL W/THE EXCEPTION OF THE RUC WHICH INITIALLY HAD IT AND THEN               
ERODES IT OUT TOO QUICKLY. STG INVERSION IN PLACE ALLOWING THE SCU              
DECK TO HANG ON LONGER. HOWEVER...LATEST SATL IR IMAGERY SHOWING                
THIS CLOUD SHIELD MOVG E AND BREAKING UP. CONTINUED THIS TREND                  
TODAY AS HIGH PRES MOVES SE AND SSW FLOW ALOFT TAKES OVER.                      
THEREFORE...THINKING SUNSHINE MOST OF THE DAY TODAY WITH WARMER                 
TEMPS. DECIDED CUT MOS GUIDANCE TEMPS BY 2-3 DEGS FOR MAXES TODAY               
ESP FOR LOW LYING REGIONS WHERE INVERSION WILL HOLD LONGER. MOS                 
HAS BEEN RUNNING TOO WARM OVER THE LAST FEW DAYS. SKY GRIDS ARE A               
REFLECTION OF THE GFS40.                                                        
TONIGHT...NO HEADLINES ATTM. DECIDED TO BACK OFF ON SNOW CHCS TIL               
AFT 06Z AND HIGHEST POPS ARE ACROSS THE FAR WNW W/30% POPS.                     
PRECIP/THICKNESS TOOL PUTS SN TO START OUT AHEAD OF APCHG FRONTAL               
SYSTEM AND THIS LOOKS GOOD GIVEN ALL PARTIAL THICKNESS VALUES                   
INDICATING FROZEN PRECIP. DAYCREW CAN ASSESS THINGS FURTHER W/LATER             
GUIDANCE. WAA ALOFT WILL GRADUALLY BEGIN TO WORK IN OVERNIGHT                   
W/TEMPS DROPPING OFF EARLY ON AND THEN LEVELING OFF. MOS GUIDANCE               
WAS LOADED AND THEN LOWERED THEM BACK A FEW DEGS ONCE AGAIN ESP                 
FOR LOW LYING AREAS. ANOTHER ISSUE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR STRATUS TO              
WORK IN GIVEN SLY FLOW GETTING STARTED AFT 06Z THROUGH 5K FT.                   
THEREFORE...THINKING SKIES WILL GO CLOUDY AFT 06Z.                              
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...                                    
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST EARLY SUNDAY. MODELS IN GOOD                       
AGREEMENT WITH REGARD TO A PERIOD OF PRECIPITATION DEVELOPING                   
DURING SUNDAY AND INTO SUNDAY NIGHT IN ADVANCE OF AN OCCLUDED                   
FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. INITIALLY THERE WILL BE ENOUGH                 
COLD AIR IN THE LOWER LEVELS FOR A PERIOD OF MIXED PRECIPITATION                
BEFORE A STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW OF MILDER AIR CHANGES ANY MIXED                  
PRECIPITATION TO ALL RAIN BY SUNDAY EVENING ALL AREAS. ANOTHER                  
ISSUE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG WINDS ACROSS THE DOWNEAST                
COAST SUNDAY EVENING WITH GFS INDICATING IN 850 TO 925 MB JET IN                
EXCESS OF 50 KTS LATER SUNDAY EVENING. A HIGH WIND WATCH WILL                   
LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR LATER SUNDAY AND INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. THE                    
OCCLUDED FRONT WILL CROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA BY EARLY                    
MONDAY MORNING. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION                  
DURING MONDAY AND INTO MONDAY EVENING WITH THE CHANCE FOR SNOW                  
SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS.                                                  
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...                                          
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE FORECAST INTO MIDWEEK. ANOTHER              
LOW WILL APPROACH THE REGION FOR LATE WEEK WITH THE CHANCE FRO                  
SOME SNOW SHOWERS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL THROUGH THE                 
PERIOD.                                                                         
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...                                   
VFR INTO EARLY TONIGHT AND THEN THINKING HERE IS THAT THE STRATUS               
DECK MENTIONED ABV WILL WORK INTO THE TAF SITES AFT 06Z W/CIGS                  
DROPPING BLO 1K FT. LOOKS LIKE IFR CONDITIONS SHOULD HOLD RIGHT                 
INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AND THEN CONDITIONS LOOK TO GO MVFR MONDAY                    
MORNING AND HOLDING THAT WAY ACROSS THE N WHILE KBGR AND KBHB GO                
VFR AS NWLY FLOW TAKES OVER. MVFR ACROSS THE N TUESDAY W/VFR                    
ELSEWHERE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
.MARINE...                                                                      
NEAR TERM: NO HEADLINES IN SIGHT. WNAWAVE GUIDANCE CATCHING ON PER              
LATEST OBS AND WENT W/IT. 2-3 FOOT SEAS WILL DROP BACK TO LESS                  
THAN 2 FT THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY TONIGHT. SEAS WILL GRADUALLY                
BUILD AFTER MIDNIGHT AS S FLOW BEGINS TO SET IN.                                
SHORT TERM: WIND/SEAS WILL INCREASE TO GALE FORCE IN ADVANCE OF                 
THE FRONT LATER SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. WINDS WILL THEN CONTINUE               
AT GALE FORCE OR STRONG SCA INTO MONDAY.                                        
&&                                                                              
.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
ME...NONE.                                                                      
MARINE...NONE.                                                                  
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
NEAR TERM...HEWITT                                                              
SHORT TERM...DUDA                                                               
LONG TERM...DUDA                                                                
AVIATION...HEWITT                                                               
MARINE...HEWITT/DUDA                                                            
</pre> me                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
415 AM EST SAT DEC 22 2007                                                      
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
00Z RAOBS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW SPLIT FLOW OVER               
NAMERICA WITH NRN BRANCH TROF OVER SRN SASKATCHEWAN AND A SRN BRANCH            
TROF ACRS THE SRN ROCKIES. UPR RDGING IN BOTH BRANCHES HAS SET IN               
OVER THE GRT LKS AS RELATIVELY WARM AIR FOR THE SEASON HAS SPREAD AS            
FAR N AS ONTARIO IN THE GENERAL SSW FLOW AHEAD OF THE TROFS TO THE              
W. SHRTWV LIFTING OUT OF SRN BRANCH TROF IS CURRENTLY MOVING INTO               
THE UPR MS VALLEY. AREA RAOBS SHOW QUITE A BIT OF LLVL MSTR...SO LO             
CLD IS WDSPRD OVER THE AREA WITH SOME LOCALLY DENSE FOG OVER THE                
CNTRL ZNS WITH MOIST UPSLOPE SE FLOW BTWN DEPARTING HI PRES OVER SE             
CAN AND LO PRES TO THE W. FOR THE MOST PART...SFC TEMPS OVER THE FA             
ARE ABV 32. QUITE A BIT OF HI CLD STREAMING NEWD AS WELL...BUT RAOBS            
SHOW PLENTY OF DRY AIR UPSTREAM AT H85-7. FOR INSTANCE...H7 DWPT                
DEPRESSION AT OMA IS 23C AND H85/7 DWPT DESPRESSIONS AT DVN ARE 35C             
AND 40C RESPECTIVELY. SO PCPN ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYS IS PRETTY                
MUCH RESTRICTED TO NRN MN/WRN LK SUP WHERE GFS/NAM SHOW SHARPER                 
ISENTROPIC LIFT ON THE 290K SFC. OTRW...MUCH COLDER AIR ASSOCIATED              
WITH THE NRN BRANCH TROF IS SHOWING UP IN THE NRN PLAINS WITH SFC               
TEMPS FALLING BLO 10F IN ND BEHIND COLD FNT ASSOCIATED WITH NRN                 
BRANCH SHRTWV.                                                                  
FCST CONCERNS ARE NMRS THIS PACKAGE WITH DEGREE OF PHASING BTWN                 
SEPARATE BRANCHES/SHRTWVS NOTED ABV AND IMPACT OF TRACK/STRENGTH OF             
SFC LO PRES THE CHALLENGE. ALTHOUGH THE NUMERICAL MODELS OFTEN HAVE             
DIFFICULTY IN THESE SCENARIOS AND THE PHYSICAL DISTANCE BTWN THE                
FEATURES ATTM WOULD SUG A SLOWER INTERACTION...THE 00Z NAM/GFS ARE              
REMARKABLY SIMILAR IN DEPICTING THE DVLPMNT OF A DEEP SFC LO FCST TO            
REACH NR GRB AT 12Z SUN AND THE POTENTIAL FOR A MAJOR WINTER STORM              
OVER ESPECIALLY THE WRN COUNTIES. WL NEED TO DETERMINE WHETHER OR               
NOT TO UPGRADE ANY OF THE GOING WATCHES TO WRNGS.                               
ON THE OTHER HAND...TDAY SHOULD BE RELATIVELY UNEVENTFUL. AMPLE LLVL            
MSTR FCST TO CONTINUE FLOWING INTO THE UPR LKS IN LARGER SCALE SLY              
FLOW...BUT DRYNESS OF H85-7 UPSTREAM SUGS NUMERICAL GUIDANCE MAY BE             
A BIT AGGRESSIVE AT GENERATING PCPN OVER ALL BUT THE WRN ZNS TDAY               
DESPITE SOME PERSISTENT LARGER SCALE ISENTROPIC LIFT SHOWN ON THE               
290-295K SFCS. WL CARRY AREAS OF DZ/FOG OVER THE CNTRL ZNS THRU THE             
DAY WITH JUST PTCHY DZ/FOG OVER THE E. WITH TEMPS ALREADY ABV 32                
ALMOST EVERYWHERE...SUSPECT PCPN WL BE LIQUID. BETTER CHC FOR PCPN              
LOOKS TO BE OVER THE WRN ZNS ESPECIALLY THIS AFTN WITH ARRIVAL OF               
INVERTED TROF TO THE N OF SFC LO PRES GFS/NAM FCST TO DVLP IN THE               
MID VS VALLEY AHEAD OF SRN BRANCH TROF LIFTING NEWD FM THE SRN                  
ROCKIES. EVEN THERE...PCPN WL START AS RA WITH SO MUCH LLVL WARM AIR            
IN PLACE...BUT FCST SDNGS/WBZ SHOW PCPN WL MIX WITH OR CHG TO ALL SN            
IN GOGEBIC/ONTONAGON COUNTIES WITH ARRIVAL OF LLVL COLDER AIR BEHIND            
INVERTED TROF. SFC OBS TO THE W SHOW TEMPS FALLING QUICKLY BLO 32 IN            
THE WAKE OF THIS BDNRY...SO NAM/GFS FCST PCPN TYPE THERE SEEMS RSNBL.           
FOR TNGT...NAM/GFS IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT SHOWING DETAILS OF PHASING            
BRANCHES...WITH RDPLY DEEPENING LO PRES MOVING TO NEAR GRB BY 12Z               
SUN. INCRSG UPR DIFFLUENCE/H5 HGT FALLS/DEEP LYR QVECTOR CNVGC TO               
THE NE OF DVLPG NEGATIVELY TILTED CUTOFF LO AT H5 JUST TO THE SW OF             
MPX ESPECIALLY AFT 06Z WL SUPPORT INCRSGLY WDSPRD PCPN. TRACK OF SFC            
LO WL DRAW ENUF WARM AIR INTO THE ERN/NCNTRL FA TO MAINTAIN JUST                
RA... BUT OVER THE W THE COMBINATION OF INTENSE UVV/DYNAMIC COOLING             
AND INFLUX OF LLVL COLD AIR WL CAUSE THE PCPN TO BE SN OR CHG TO SN.            
USING NAM FCST WBZ HGT OF 1500FT/H925-85 THKNS OF 676M AS A GUIDE...            
LOOK FOR THE RA/SN LINE TO BE FM CMX-HURON MNTS-CRYSTAL FALLS OR SO             
BY 12Z SUN ON THE COLD SIDE OF THE H85 LO TRACK.                                
ON SUN...SFC LO PROGGED TO MOVE TO SLOWLY TO ARND SCNTRL LK SUP BY              
LATE IN THE DAY AS UPR LO SLIDES INTO THE CNTRL GRT LKS...SUPPORTING            
12HR H5 HGT FALLS UP TO 150M. PCPN WL GRDLY CHG TO SN WITH DYNAMIC              
COOLING...BUT WARM LYR ALF/TROWAL FEATURE WL RETARD CHGOVER NEAR LK             
SUP OVER THE NCNTRL...ESPECIALLY WITH N FLOW OFF THE WARM LK WATERS.            
IN FACT...THE PCPN MAY CHG TO SN FASTER OVER THE E AND NEAR LK MI               
THAN AT THE CITY OF MQT. OTRW...ARRIVAL OF HIER SPECIFIC HUMIDITY FM            
THE NNE TO THE W OF LO WL ENHANCE PCPN RATES ESPECIALLY WHERE LLVL              
NNE FLOW UPSLOPES AND WHERE CROSS SECTION SHOWS THETA-E DCRSG A BIT             
WITH HGT ABV TROWAL ACRS THE NCNTRL W OF MQT. WHERE THE PCPN FALLS              
AS SN...INCRSG WINDS WL CAUSE CONSIDERABLE BLSN. BUT FCST SCENARIO              
ATTM SEEMS TO SUG WINDS/BLSN WL NOT BE AS SGNFT AS PREVIOUSLY                   
THOUGHT. SINCE THE HEAVIEST SN WL FALL ONLY LATE IN THE SECOND PD               
AND THE THIRD PD...OPTED TO KEEP GOING WATCH AND NOT UPGRADE TO                 
WRNG...ESPECIALLY SINCE 06Z NAM APPEARS TO BE SLOWER BRINGING IN THE            
SHARPER DYNAMICS.                                                               
EXPECT ANY PCPN TO BE ALL SN SUN NGT BUT THEN TO GRDLY DIMINISH AS              
HGTS RISE FAIRLY SHARPLY IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING UPR LO WITH               
UPR CNVGC/DNVA/DEEP LYR QVECTOR DVGC. INCOMING AIRMASS DOES NOT                 
APPEAR PARTICULARLY COLD (H85 TEMPS ARND -10C) EITHER WITH HIER MSTR            
TENDING ...SO LES SHOULD NOT GET OUT OF HAND. BUT PERSISTENT CYC                
FLOW WL CONT -SHSN THRU THE NGT ALBEIT AT A LIGHTER RATE.                       
COORDINATED WITH APX/GRB/DLH.                                                   
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION (FOR THE 06Z TAF ISSUANCE)...                                         
PREVAILING SSE UPSLOPE FLOW AND ADDED LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE FROM                   
SNOWMELT SHOULD CONTINUE IFR CONDITIONS AT KSAW...WITH THE EXCEPTION            
OF PREVAILING LIFR CONDITIONS FROM 06-15Z. EXPECT IFR CIGS AT KCMX              
THROUGH THE PERIOD AS VSBYS FALL FROM MVFR TO IFR TOWARD 12Z SAT.               
LOOK FOR CONDITIONS AT KCMX TO TRANSITION TO LIFR BY SAT NIGHT WITH             
INCREASED MOISTURE FROM EXPECTED RAINFALL AND LIGHT UPSLOPE ERLY                
FLOW. EXPECT STEADIER RAINFALL SAT AFT INTO SAT NIGHT AS WARM                   
ADVECTION INCREASES ACROSS THE REGION.                                          
&&                                                                              
.MARINE (FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)...                       
AFTER A GENERAL QUIET PERIOD ON LAKE SUPERIOR THROUGH TONIGHT WITH              
WINDS NO HIGHER THAN 25 KT (GREATEST NEAR WHITEFISH POINT)...EXPECT             
WINDS TO REALLY INCREASE SUNDAY. THIS RAPID INCREASE IS DUE TO LOW              
PRESSURE OVER SOUTHERN MISSOURI THIS EVENING THAT RAPIDLY DEEPENS AS            
IT HEADS DUE NORTH TOWARD CENTRAL UPPER MICHIGAN. AS THE LOW MOVES              
TO NEAR MARQUETTE EARLY SUNDAY AFTERNOON...NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS             
ACROSS WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR SHOULD INCREASE TO GALES. BY SUNDAY                
EVENING...THERE IS A CHANCE THEY COULD INCREASE TO STORM FORCE...               
ESPECIALLY NEAR ISLE ROYALE. AS THE LOW SHIFTS FROM NEAR MUNISING               
SUNDAY EVENING INTO NORTHWEST QUEBEC LATE IN THE NIGHT...WINDS WILL             
QUICKLY RELAX...DROPPING BELOW GALES ACROSS ALL OF LAKE SUPERIOR                
JUST AFTER MIDNIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT. WINDS BELOW 30 KT ARE THEN                    
EXPECTED FOR CHRISTMAS EVE INTO WEDNESDAY...WITH A HIGH PRESSURE                
RIDGE CROSSING MONDAY NIGHT AND A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH CROSSING                  
TUESDAY NIGHT.                                                                  
&&                                                                              
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY                      
MORNING FOR MIZ001>005-009-010-084.                                             
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY                      
AFTERNOON FOR MIZ011.                                                           
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
DISCUSSION...KC                                                                 
AVIATION...VOSS                                                                 
MARINE...AJ                                                                     
</pre> mi                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI                                     
408 AM EST SAT DEC 22 2007                                                      
.SHORT TERM...TODAY                                                             
AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO EVOLVE OVER THE NEXT             
24 HOURS...AS THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS EAST AND A DEEPENING UPPER            
LOW CURRENTLY OVER THE FOUR CORNERS EJECTS NORTHEAST TOWARD THE                 
GREAT LAKES.  FOR TODAY...MAIN ISSUE WILL BE THE PERSISTENT FEED OF             
DEEP LOW LEVEL MOISTURE.  THUS FAR THIS MORNING...DESPITE DEWPTS                
CLIMBING INTO THE LOW/MID 30S...SEEING JUST ENOUGH OF AN EASTERLY               
COMPONENT TO THE LOW LEVEL WIND FIELD THAT DENSE FOG AND REPORTS OF             
DRIZZLE REMAIN SPOTTY.  AS WINDS GRADUALLY VEER TOWARD THE                      
SOUTH...EXPECT DEEPER SATURATION TO OCCUR...ESPECIALLY THROUGH THE              
MORNING HOURS PRIOR TO THE ONSET OF BETTER MIXING BY AFTERNOON.                 
THUS...WILL HANG ON TO A LOW CHC POP...AS A FEW LOCATIONS COULD SEE             
SMALL MEASURABLE AMOUNTS WITHIN ANY HEAVIER AREAS OF LGT                        
RAIN/DRIZZLE.                                                                   
PERSISTENT WEAK WAA WILL WORK OFF THE MILD MORNING START...PUSHING              
HIGHS AT LEAST 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL...WITH READINGS ACROSS THE               
AREA THE WARMEST IN OVER 3 WEEKS.  BASED ON CURRENT/UPSTREAM                    
CONDITIONS...AND PROJECTED 850 MB TEMPERATURES...HIGHS RANGING FROM             
LOWER 40S ACROSS THE SAGINAW VALLEY/THUMB REGION TO UPPER 40S NEAR              
THE OHIO BORDER LOOK ATTAINABLE DESPITE A SOLID CLOUD DECK AND THE              
RAPIDLY MELTING SNOWPACK.                                                       
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY                                             
TWO VIGOROUS...WELL DEVELOPED...MIDLEVEL VORTICES DIGGING INTO                  
SOUTHERN ALBERTA/NEW MEXICO WILL PHASE ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI             
RIVER VALLEY LATER TONIGHT.  THE TREND OF THE 00 UTC NUMERICAL                  
GUIDANCE HAS AGAIN BEEN A TAD SLOWER WITH THE SURFACE CYCLONE EVENT             
FOR THIS WEEKEND. THE MODELS ARE STILL EXEMPLIFYING A SURFACE                   
CYCLONE THAT WILL TRACK NORTHWARD THROUGH CHICAGO AND INTO LAKE                 
MICHIGAN THIS EVENING.  THE SURFACE LOW...WHILE CONTINUING STRAIGHT             
NORTHERLY...DEEPENS SOME 12 TO 15 MB IN 12 HOURS CENTERING ON                   
EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/EASTERN U.P. BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. WITH TIME OF            
YEAR CONSIDERATIONS/WARMISH LAKE TEMPERATURES WILL ERR ON THE SIDE              
OF THE DEEPER SOLUTION.                                                         
FOR TONIGHT...EXPECTING THE EVENING TO BE RELATIVELY QUIET AS                   
RESIDUAL DRY MIDLEVEL AIR LINGERS. THEN AFTER MIDNIGHT...SECONDARY              
MOISTURE PUSH ARRIVES FROM THE SOUTH...ALONG WITH STRONG 700-500MB              
FRONTOGENESIS. WITHIN EASTERN FLANK OF RAPIDLY DEEPENING LOW                    
PRESSURE SUPPORTS A WIDESPREAD AREA OF CATEGORICAL POPS FOR RAIN (UP            
TO ONE HALF INCH). LATEST GFS CAME IN HINTING AT SOME ELEVATED                  
INSTABILITY TONIGHT...WHILE THE NAM CHECKED IN MORE BEARISH.                    
EXAMINING MODEL SOUNDINGS DOES SUGGEST AT SOME STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE             
RATES OVERNIGHT BUT AMOUNT OF ELEVATED INSTABILITY IS LOW. A JAW                
DROPPING LOW LEVEL JET OF PLUS 75 KNOTS AT 850MB WILL CERTAINLY                 
ALLOW FOR CONVERGENCE AND FORCING...BUT WITH DECEMBER CLIMATOLOGY IN            
MIND DECIDED AGAINST ANY THUNDER MENTION. THE IMPRESSIVELY SHARP                
SURFACE COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO WHISTLE THROUGH MOST OF THE                    
FORECAST AREA BETWEEN 10AM AND NOON SUNDAY.  A WIND ADVISORY MAY BE             
NEEDED AS WESTERLY WINDS COULD POTENTIALLY GUST OVER 45 MPH TRAILING            
THE COLD FRONT. A QUICK CHANGEOVER TO SNOW IS LIKELY AS COLD AIR                
ADVECTION IS HIGHLY IMPRESSIVE.  BUT...WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE                   
TRAILING SUCH A STRONG FRONTAL CIRCULATION...SIGNIFICANT                        
PRECIPITATION WILL SHUT DOWN DURING THE DAY.                                    
THERE IS STILL UNCERTAINTY HEADING INTO SUNDAY EVENING/NIGHT PERIOD             
IN REGARDS TO THE TIMING OF ANY SECONDARY VORTICITY FEATURES                    
ROTATING AROUND THE VORTEX. HOWEVER...IT IS APPEARING MORE LIKELY               
THAT SUCH A FEATURE WILL PIVOT THROUGH LOWER MICHIGAN                           
OVERNIGHT...GIVING SYNOPTIC SUPPORT TO AN ENVIRONMENT ALREADY                   
SUPPORTIVE OF LAKE EFFECT/ENHANCEMENT. A SOUTHERLY COMPONENT TO THE             
WESTERLY FLOW WILL MAKE THE SAGINAW RIVER VALLEY THE BEST CHANCE TO             
SEE ANY ACCUMULATING SNOWS.  STRONG...GUSTY WINDS SHOULD MAKE THINGS            
INTERESTING WITH BLOWING SNOW. BUT AGAIN...NOT EXPECTING ANY                    
SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS WITH A VEERING WIND PROFILE MAKING                    
STATIONARY BANDS UNLIKELY THIS FAR OFF OF THE LAKE MICHIGAN                     
SHORELINE. COULD SEE ONE INCH SUNDAY NIGHT FOR THE TRI CITIES AND               
THUMB.                                                                          
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY                  
ALLOWING FOR SLOWLY MODERATING TEMPERATURES. TEMPERATURES FOR MUCH              
OF THIS FORECAST WERE LARGELY LEFT AS INHERITED.                                
SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES EXIST IN THE MEDIUM RANGE SUITE FOR THE                 
SYSTEM IMPACTING THE GREAT LAKES ON THURSDAY.  ATTM...LEFT THE                  
FORECAST ALONE WITH THE HIGH AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY.                             
&&                                                                              
.MARINE...                                                                      
PERSISTENT SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL GRADUALLY VEER TOWARD THE SOUTH AND             
BEGIN TO STRENGTHEN THROUGH TONIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE INTENSIFIES AND             
LIFTS NORTHEAST TOWARD LAKE MICHIGAN.  SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY                     
CONDITIONS TODAY ALONG THE NEARSHORE WATERS OF LAKE HURON WILL                  
EXPAND TO INCLUDE LAKE ST CLAIR AND THE MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE            
TONIGHT.  SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS WILL FURTHER STRENGTHEN ON SUNDAY             
AS A STRONG COLD FRONT BLASTS THROUGH.  THIS WILL PRODUCE GUSTS TO              
AT LEAST GALE FORCE ACROSS ALL MARINE AREAS THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...             
BEFORE DIMINISHING ON MONDAY. THE POSSIBILITY EXISTS FOR GUSTS TO               
BRIEFLY APPROACH LOW END STORM FORCE (UP TO 50 KNOTS)...GIVEN THE               
STRENGTH OF THE COLD AIR ADVECTION AND POST-FRONTAL PRESSURE RISES...           
AND WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS POTENTIAL.                                    
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 1151 PM EST FRI DEC 21 2007                           
AVIATION...                                                                     
THE LIGHT EAST-SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS THIS EVENING HAVE ESSENTIALLY                
MAINTAINED ENOUGH DRY AIR BELOW 1000 FEET SO THAT CEILINGS HAVE                 
PREDOMINATELY REMAINED IN THE MVFR CATEGORY...WITH SURFACE                      
VISIBILITIES BOUNCING BETWEEN MVFR AND VFR. HOWEVER...JUST TO THE               
WEST OF THE TAF SITES...CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES DETERIORATE                   
RAPIDLY. THE FLOW ABOVE THE SHALLOW INVERSION IS FORECAST TO                    
STRENGTHEN AND VEER TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST DURING THE COURSE OF THE             
MORNING. SURFACE DEWPOINTS ARE ALSO FORECAST TO SLOWLY INCH UPWARD              
THIS MORNING...A TREND THAT IS ALREADY UNDERWAY. BASED ON UPSTREAM              
CONDITIONS AND THE 00Z NAM AND RUC SOUNDINGS...EXPECT CEILINGS AND              
VISIBILITIES TO GRADUALLY LOWER DURING THE COURSE OF THE MORNING. BY            
11Z...WIDESPREAD IFR AND LIFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES ARE                     
EXPECTED. THERE IS STILL THE POTENTIAL FOR VISIBILITIES BELOW A MILE            
IN FOG...MAINLY BETWEEN 11Z AND 15Z WHEN SURFACE DEWPOINTS ARE                  
FORECAST TO RISE INTO THE UPPER 30S. INCREASING WINDS IN THE                    
BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD JUST PROVIDE A SLIGHT IMPROVEMENT TO CEILINGS             
AND VISIBILITIES THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.                                         
&&                                                                              
.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
MI...NONE.                                                                      
LAKE HURON...                                                                   
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...NEARSHORE WATERS FROM PORT AUSTIN TO PORT           
     HURON INCLUDING OUTER SAGINAW BAY...UNTIL 7 AM SUNDAY.                     
     GALE WARNING...NEARSHORE WATERS FROM PORT AUSTIN TO PORT HURON             
     INCLUDING SAGINAW BAY...FROM 7 AM SUNDAY TO 10 AM MONDAY.                  
     GALE WARNING...LHZ361-LHZ362-LHZ363-LHZ462-LHZ463-LHZ464...FROM 10         
     PM SATURDAY TO 10 AM MONDAY.                                               
LAKE ST CLAIR...                                                                
     GALE WARNING...FROM 7 AM SUNDAY TO 10 AM MONDAY.                           
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...FROM 10 PM SATURDAY TO 7 AM SUNDAY.                 
MI WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...                                                       
     GALE WARNING...FROM 7 AM SUNDAY TO 10 AM MONDAY.                           
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...FROM 10 PM SATURDAY TO 7 AM SUNDAY.                 
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHORT TERM...MR                                                                 
LONG TERM....CB                                                                 
MARINE.......MR                                                                 
AVIATION.....SC                                                                 
YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE            
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).                                    
</pre> mi                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI                                     
1151 PM EST FRI DEC 21 2007                                                     
.AVIATION...                                                                    
THE LIGHT EAST-SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS THIS EVENING HAVE ESSENTIALLY                
MAINTAINED ENOUGH DRY AIR BELOW 1000 FEET SO THAT CEILINGS HAVE                 
PREDOMINATELY REMAINED IN THE MVFR CATEGORY...WITH SURFACE                      
VISIBILITIES BOUNCING BETWEEN MVFR AND VFR. HOWEVER...JUST TO THE               
WEST OF THE TAF SITES...CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES DETERIORATE                   
RAPIDLY. THE FLOW ABOVE THE SHALLOW INVERSION IS FORECAST TO                    
STRENGTHEN AND VEER TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST DURING THE COURSE OF THE             
MORNING. SURFACE DEWPOINTS ARE ALSO FORECAST TO SLOWLY INCH UPWARD              
THIS MORNING...A TREND THAT IS ALREADY UNDERWAY. BASED ON UPSTREAM              
CONDITIONS AND THE 00Z NAM AND RUC SOUNDINGS...EXPECT CEILINGS AND              
VISIBILITIES TO GRADUALLY LOWER DURING THE COURSE OF THE MORNING. BY            
11Z...WIDESPREAD IFR AND LIFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES ARE                     
EXPECTED. THERE IS STILL THE POTENTIAL FOR VISIBILITIES BELOW A MILE            
IN FOG...MAINLY BETWEEN 11Z AND 15Z WHEN SURFACE DEWPOINTS ARE                  
FORECAST TO RISE INTO THE UPPER 30S. INCREASING WINDS IN THE                    
BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD JUST PROVIDE A SLIGHT IMPROVEMENT TO CEILINGS             
AND VISIBILITIES THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.                                         
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 956 PM EST FRI DEC 21 2007                            
UPDATE...                                                                       
OVERALL THE GOING FORECAST APPEARS IN GOOD SHAPE. RADAR SHOWS                   
GENERALLY LIGHT RETURNS LIFTING NORTHWARD ACROSS THE FORECAST                   
AREA DUE TO MOISTURE ADVECTION WITHIN THE 950-900MB LAYER.                      
SURFACE OBS INDICATE THIS IS MAINLY DRIZZLE. THIS IS SUPPORTED BY               
THE 00Z DTX SOUNDING WHICH SHOWED MOISTURE CONFINED BELOW 800MB.                
LIGHT EAST-SOUTHEASTERLY SURFACE WINDS HAVE HELPED KEEP                         
VISIBILITIES MAINLY ABOVE 3 MILES THIS EVENING. HIGHER SURFACE                  
DEWPOINTS HAVE BEEN INCHING UPWARD FROM THE SOUTH...WHICH WILL                  
STILL POSE A THREAT FOR SOME LOWER VISIBILITIES IN                              
FOG...ESPECIALLY TOWARD DAYBREAK.                                               
PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 313 PM EST FRI DEC 21 2007                             
SHORT TERM...TONIGHT                                                            
A SLOW AND STEADY STREAM OF MOISTURE COMING UP FROM THE SOUTH WILL              
ALLOW FOR LOW STRATUS AND FOG DEVELOPMENT TONIGHT...WITH                        
TEMPERATURES HOLDING STEADY DUE TO THE LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION                 
THROUGH THE NIGHT (925 MB TEMPS STARTING AROUND 3 C...WARMING TO 6-7            
C TOWARD 12Z SATURDAY PER NAM/GFS BLEND).                                       
WITH SLIGHTLY DRIER SOUTHEAST FLOW THROUGH THE NIGHT...A FAIRLY                 
TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT...AND MARGINAL SURFACE DEW POINTS (32-35                
DEGREES) RIDING OVER THE SNOW PACK...DON`T FORESEE WIDESPREAD DENSE             
FOG...BUT THERE CERTAINLY LOOKS TO BE POCKETS...ALONG WITH AREAS OF             
DRIZZLE POSSIBLE WITH SATURATION UP TO 7000 KFT.                                
LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH FRIDAY                                             
MODELS HAVE HONED IN ON A BASIC SOLUTION FOR THE STORM SYSTEM THAT              
WILL DEVELOP OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES LATE SATURDAY/SATURDAY                
NIGHT AS A MAJOR SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE LIFTING OUT OF THE                   
SOUTHWEST CONUS PHASES WITH A EQUALLY POTENT NORTHERN STREAM WAVE               
DROPPING FROM THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND                
UPPER MIDWEST. THE PREFERRED SOLUTION TAKES A RAPIDLY DEEPENING                 
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE NORTH ALONG LAKE MICHIGAN INTO THE NORTHERN                
LAKES. IN ADVANCE OF THIS LOW...AN AREA OF RAIN WILL SPREAD OVER                
LOWER MICHIGAN LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY...WITH A COLD              
FRONT QUICKLY RACING INTO THE AREA DURING THE EARLY/MID MORNING.                
WRAPAROUND SNOW SHOWERS WILL THEN PREVAIL FROM SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY               
NIGHT...PARTICULARLY OVER THE SAGINAW VALLEY...WHERE LAKE EFFECT                
ENHANCEMENT WILL BE FELT THE MOST.                                              
GIVEN THE TIMING OF THE SURFACE FEATURES...MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO            
TEMPERATURES SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...WITH LATE EVENING MINIMUM             
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED LATE SATURDAY BEFORE TEMPERATURES STEADY AND              
THEN SLOWLY RISE OVERNIGHT IN ADVANCE OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT.            
THE PASSAGE OF THIS FRONT WILL THEN OCCUR FROM 12Z-15Z...SO WILL UP             
MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES FOR THE EARLY MORNING HOURS WITH             
TEMPERATURES THEN FALLING SIGNIFICANTLY FROM MID/LATE MORNING ON.               
SOUTHWEST WINDS IN THE WAKE OF THIS STRONG COLD FRONT WILL ALSO BE              
VERY STRONG...AND MAY NEED A WIND ADVISORY ON SUNDAY/SUNDAY EVENING             
IF THE CURRENT MODEL SOLUTION HOLDS. WILL CARRY AT LEAST 40 MPH                 
WIND GUSTS WITH THIS PACKAGE DURING THE DAY SUNDAY.                             
THE COLDER AIRMASS USHERED IN BEHIND THIS STORM SYSTEM HOLDS INTO               
THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK...WITH ONLY SLOW MODERATION EXPECTED BY             
MIDWEEK. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST ARE NECESSARY FOR               
THIS TIMEFRAME AS HIGHS EDGE BACK UP FROM THE 20S MONDAY TO MID 30S             
BY WEDNESDAY.                                                                   
THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE TO EJECT OUT OF THE              
SOUTHWEST CONUS IS THEN EXPECTED TO BE IN THIS GENERAL VICINITY BY              
THURSDAY. MODELS ARE RATHER CONSISTENT IN EJECTING THIS STORM SYSTEM            
NORTHEAST INTO THE GREAT LAKES DURING THIS TIMEFRAME BUT VARY ENOUGH            
TO KEEP PRECIPITATION TYPE SOMEWHAT IN QUESTION. PLAN ON MAINTAINING            
THE CHANCE OF SNOW ATTM FOR CONTINUITY...BUT THIS WILL HAVE TO BE               
RE-ADDRESSED IF MODELS TREND MORE CONSISTENTLY TO A TRACK FURTHER               
WEST TO THE VICINITY OF LAKE MICHIGAN...OR WESTERN LOWER MICHIGAN.              
MARINE...                                                                       
A PREDOMINANT SOUTHEASTERLY WIND MOVING OVER THE LONGER FETCH OF                
LAKE HURON WILL MAINTAIN SLIGHTLY HIGHER WAVES OVER THE NEARSHORE               
WATERS NEAR THE TIP OF THE THUMB THROUGH TONIGHT. A SMALL CRAFT                 
ADVISORY WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THESE CONDITIONS. EXPECT THESE               
CONDITIONS TO EXPAND ON SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT AS SOUTHEAST WINDS              
INCREASE FURTHER AS LOW PRESSURE TO THE WEST INTENSIFIES. GALES WILL            
BE POSSIBLE OVER THE OPEN WATERS OF LAKE HURON BY LATE SATURDAY                 
EVENING...AND LIKELY FOR ALL MARINE AREAS ON SUNDAY AS A STRONG COLD            
FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH THE REGION AROUND THIS LOW AND BRINGS VERY                 
STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW (PERHAPS GALES UP TO 45 KNOTS AT TIMES).              
CONDITIONS WILL ONLY SLOWLY IMPROVE LATE SUNDAY NIGHT.                          
&&                                                                              
.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
MI...NONE.                                                                      
LAKE HURON...                                                                   
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...NEARSHORE WATERS FROM PORT AUSTIN TO PORT           
     SANILAC...UNTIL 7 AM SUNDAY.                                               
     GALE WATCH...NEARSHORE WATERS FROM PORT AUSTIN TO PORT HURON               
     INCLUDING SAGINAW BAY...FROM 7 AM SUNDAY TO 5 AM MONDAY.                   
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...LHZ421-LHZ443...FROM 7 AM SATURDAY TO 7 AM          
     SUNDAY.                                                                    
     GALE WATCH...LHZ361-LHZ362-LHZ363-LHZ462-LHZ463-LHZ464...FROM 10 PM        
     SATURDAY TO 5 AM MONDAY.                                                   
LAKE ST CLAIR...                                                                
     GALE WATCH...FROM 7 AM SUNDAY TO 5 AM MONDAY.                              
MI WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...                                                       
     GALE WATCH...FROM 7 AM SUNDAY TO 5 AM MONDAY.                              
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
AVIATION.....SC                                                                 
UPDATE.......SC                                                                 
SHORT TERM...SF                                                                 
LONG TERM....DG                                                                 
MARINE.......SF                                                                 
YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE            
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).                                    
</pre> mi                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN                              
327 AM CST SAT DEC 22 2007                                                      
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
FORECAST CONCERNS SQUARELY ON IMPENDING WINTER STORM THIS WEEKEND.              
THE FORECAST AREA IS CURRENTLY BISECTED BY INVERTED SURFACE                     
TROUGH...EXTENDING FROM ABOUT AITKIN TO JUST WEST OF THE TWIN                   
CITIES TO ABOUT ALBERT LEA. UNSEASONABLY WARM AND MOIST SURFACE                 
CONDITIONS ARE PRESENT ALONG AND TO THE EAST OF THE TROUGH                      
AXIS...WITH TEMPERATURES/DEW POINTS A FEW DEGREES ABOVE FREEZING.               
FOG AND PATCHY DRIZZLE/RAIN ARE OCCURRING IN THIS REGION AS A                   
RESULT OF ISENTROPIC LIFT. HAVE EXTENDED THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY                 
FOR AREAS TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE TWIN CITIES THROUGH                      
15Z...GENERALLY UNTIL COOLER AND DRIER AIR WORKS ITS WAY INTO THE               
AREA FOLLOWING THE TROUGH PASSAGE. THE FOG THREAT MAY LINGER A                  
LITTLE LONGER IN PARTS OF WISCONSIN...SO HAVE CARRIED A MENTION OF              
PATCHY DENSE FOG THROUGH 18Z FOR THE 9 WISCONSIN COUNTIES.                      
POWERFUL CLOSED UPPER LOW VERY EVIDENT IN WATER VAPOR SATELLITE                 
OVER SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN THIS MORNING...WHICH WILL BE THE                     
CRITICAL PLAYER IN HOW THE WINTER STORM PLAYS OUT THIS WEEKEND.                 
LOW CENTER OVER WESTERN NORTH TEXAS IN THE DETACHED SOUTHERN                    
STREAM WILL RACE NORTHEASTWARD AS THE UPPER JET MOVES INTO THE                  
OHIO VALLEY. AT THE SAME TIME...THE UPPER LOW DROPS SOUTHEASTWARD               
AND EVENTUALLY PHASES WITH THE SOUTHERN STREAM UPPER TROUGH. AS                 
THIS OCCURS LATE TONIGHT...THE SURFACE LOW DEEPENS QUITE NICELY                 
OVER LAKE MICHIGAN. A STRONG FRONTOGENETIC RESPONSE...AND UPPER                 
LEVEL Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE...ARE SEEN OVER THE WESTERN WISCONSIN                
COUNTIES...ESPECIALLY IN THE OVERNIGHT HOURS TONIGHT. EAST/WEST                 
CROSS SECTIONS THROUGH THIS REGION SHOW A SMALL AREA OF NEGATIVE                
EPV ABOVE THE REGION OF MAXIMUM UPWARD MOTION IN A FAVORABLE                    
DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE OVER PRIMARILY NORTH CENTRAL                              
WISCONSIN...ALTHOUGH THE WESTERN EDGE OF THIS FAVORED AREA DOES                 
HANG OVER THE FAR EASTERN EDGE OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE FAVORED                
TIME APPEARS TO BE LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. THE              
SNOW WILL CONTINUE IN THIS AREA...AND SOLIDLY REENTER MUCH OF THE               
REMAINDER OF THE AREA FROM THE NORTH...AS THE WRAP AROUND                       
MOISTURE/CYCLONIC CURVATURE RESULT IN ADDITIONAL SNOW ACTIVITY. IN              
ALL...INGREDIENTS APPEAR TO FAVOR STORM TOTAL AMOUNTS AROUND 6                  
INCHES TO THE EAST OF A RICE LAKE TO DURAND LINE...WITH A QUICK                 
DROP OFF TO THE WEST OF THIS LINE. THE DEEPENING LOW WILL ALSO                  
CREATE HAVOC WITH THE WINDS AND RESULTANT BLOWING SNOW POTENTIAL.               
WITH CONFIDENCE NOT TERRIBLY HIGH THAT THE HIGHER SNOW TOTALS WILL              
NOT BE CONFINED TO AREAS EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA...WE HAVE                    
CONTINUED THE WINTER STORM WATCH...BUT SLID THE EFFECTIVE TIME                  
BACK 6 HOURS...RUNNING FROM 00Z TONIGHT THROUGH 00Z MONDAY.                     
TEMPERATURES ALSO AN ISSUE WITH SUCH A CONTRAST ACROSS THE                      
FORECAST AREA AT THIS TIME. MANY AREAS WILL LIKELY SEE THEIR HIGHS              
FOR TODAY DURING THE MORNING HOURS...SO HAVE PAINTED A NON-DIURNAL              
TEMPERATURE TREND IN THE HOURLY TEMPERATURE FORECAST. THINGS                    
SHOULD DROP LIKE A ROCK LATE THIS EVENING OVER WESTERN PARTS OF                 
THE AREA UNDERNEATH THE DRY SLOT. QUITE A TRICKY FORECAST...WITH                
CLOUDS EXPECTED TO PREVENT A TOTAL PLUMMET IN TEMPERATURES.                     
SURFACE RIDGE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA EARLY IN THE UPCOMING                       
WEEK...WHICH WILL BRING MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES THAN WE HAVE SEEN              
OVER THE LAST WEEK OR SO...AS WELL AS DRY AND LESS FOGGY WEATHER.               
ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE                     
WEEK...BRINGING INCREASED POTENTIAL FOR SNOW ONCE AGAIN. WARM AIR               
AHEAD OF THE TROUGH WILL BRING TEMPERATURES UP A TAD FROM THE POST              
CURRENT SYSTEM LOWS TO OCCUR SUNDAY.                                            
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION.../06Z TAF ISSUANCE/                                                  
CHALLENGE WITH AVIATION REMAINS PRECIP TIMING AND TYPE THROUGH                  
THE NEXT SIX HOURS...THEN SNOWFALL INTENSITY AT WRN WI TAF SITES                
DURING THE DAY TODAY. VLIFR CIGS AND VISBYS TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE              
ENTIRE AREA THROUGH THIS MORNING. OBSERVATIONS AND RADAR                        
SIGNATURES INDICATING PRECIP TYPE SHOULD BE ALL SNOW AT AXN                     
NOW. THE BAND OVER I-29 SHOULD WEAKEN IN INTENSITY AS IT SHIFTS                 
OVER AXN OVERNIGHT. LOW TO MID LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION CURRENTLY               
LEADING TO SOME DRIZZLE OVER THE AREA WITH THE 13KM RUC MODEL                   
BRINGING MORE INTENSE ADVECTION UP BETWEEN 09 AND 12Z. CURRENT                  
TAMDAR SOUNDINGS FROM DEPARTING AND ASCENDING FLIGHTS AT MSP HAVE               
THE WARM CORE AT 4C. THIS WOULD POINT TOWARDS -RA OR POSSIBLY -FZRA             
IN THE 09 TO 12Z TIME AT MSP IF THE TEMPS DROP A COUPLE DEGREES IN              
THE NEXT FEW HOURS. HOWEVER...THE WARM LAYER ALOFT IS DRY                       
INDICATING EVAPORATIVE COOLING COULD LEAD TO A QUICK TRANSITION TO              
SNOW. HAVE TEMPOED THE TWO PRECIP TYPES FOR NOW...BUT CONFIDENCE                
IS HIGH THAT AFTER 12Z SNOW SHOULD BE THE DOMINANT PRECIP TYPE AT               
MSP. A LITTLE LATER IS ON TAP FOR THE WI TAF SITES AS COLD AIR                  
SHIFTS WEST. AS SRN STREAM LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LIFTS NORTH                      
NORTHEAST INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES...SNOW WILL BECOME MODERATE                
AT TIMES DURING THE AFTN AT EAU. WINDS ACROSS MN TAF SITES WILL                 
BE INCREASING DURING THE AFTN LEADING TO SOME BLOWING SNOW KEEPING              
VISBYS LOW DESPITE SNOWFALL POTENTIAL SHIFTING EAST. WINDS MAY                  
GUST UP TO 30 KTS AT THESE LOCALES.                                             
BEYOND TAF PERIOD...STRONG WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE                
SATURDAY NIGHT AND ESPECIALLY ON SUNDAY. GUSTS TO OVER 30 KTS WITH              
SOME LINGERING SNOW IS CURRENTLY EXPECTED.                                      
&&                                                                              
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
MN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR                    
     CHIPPEWA-DOUGLAS-LAC QUI PARLE-POPE-STEVENS-SWIFT-TODD-YELLOW              
     MEDICINE.                                                                  
     DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR BLUE EARTH-             
     CARVER-DAKOTA-FARIBAULT-FREEBORN-GOODHUE-HENNEPIN-LE SUEUR-                
     RAMSEY-RICE-SCOTT-STEELE-WASECA-WASHINGTON.                                
WI...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR BARRON-                 
     CHIPPEWA-DUNN-EAU CLAIRE-PEPIN-PIERCE-POLK-RUSK-ST. CROIX.                 
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON              
     FOR BARRON-CHIPPEWA-DUNN-EAU CLAIRE-PEPIN-RUSK.                            
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
KAT/MTF                                                                         
</pre> mn                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN                              
1123 PM CST FRI DEC 21 2007                                                     
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
12Z NAM/GFS AND ECMWF ALL VERY SIMILAR IN BRINGING NORTH STREAM                 
CLOSED LOW OVER ALBERTA TO MN BY SUNDAY MORNING WITH THE SOUTHERN               
STREAM LOW...CURRENTLY OVER THE FOUR CORNERS...PIVOTING                         
UNDERNEATH AND REACHING THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. COLD FRONT TO MOVE               
ACROSS MUCH OF THE MN CWA TONIGHT AND SLOWLY ACROSS WI ON                       
SATURDAY. A SURFACE LOW IS PROGGED TO RIDE NORTHEAST ALONG THE                  
FRONT AND REACH NORTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN BY SUNDAY MORNING. ALL THREE             
OF THE MODELS REACHED THE SAME LOCATION AND WERE WITHIN ONE                     
MILLIBAR OF EACH OTHER. QUITE A FEAT 48 HOURS OUT. IN THE MEAN                  
TIME...PLENTY OF WEATHER ELEMENTS FOR THE CWA THROUGH SUNDAY.                   
DENSE FOG REMAINS A PROBLEM TONIGHT OVER EASTERN AND SOUTHERN                   
AREAS OF THE CWA WITH TEMP/DP`S LOCKED IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 30S.              
WE EXTENDED THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY. WE                     
RECENTLY ISSUED A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR WEST CENTRAL AREAS                
OF MINNESOTA FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH NOON SATURDAY. RAIN AND                  
FREEZING RAIN DEVELOPING AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING FRONT THIS                    
EVENING THEN TRANSITIONING TO SNOW QUICKLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE WIND             
WILL PICK UP OVERNIGHT AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING WITH SOME               
BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW. LATER SHIFTS MAY NEED TO EXTEND OR ISSUE A           
NEW ADVISORY TO THE TWIN CITIES FOR SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW ON                    
SATURDAY. OVERALL..STILL THINK 2 TO 3 INCHES WILL COVER THE SNOW                
ACCUMULATION FOR THE MN CWA TONIGHT AND SATURDAY WITH THE 3 INCH                
AMOUNT FROM CAMBRIDGE THROUGH THE TWIN CITIES TO ALBERT LEA.                    
MAINTAINED THE WINTER STORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF WEST CENTRAL WI               
FROM NOON SATURDAY TO NOON SUNDAY. THE FAR EASTERN CWA IS RIGHT ON              
THE EDGE OF THE WAA AND ISENTROPIC LIFT SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND                  
EVENING. THE BEST 600-700MB FWF IS TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE                 
WI CWA AND NOT MUCH HELP. MIXING RATIOS AROUND 3 G/KG WITH A                    
PERIOD OF ABOUT 5 HOURS WHERE THE OMEGA IS MAXIMIZED IN THE BEST                
DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE. THE GRIDS ARE LOADED WITH AROUND 6 INCHES OF             
ACCUMULATION IN THE WATCH AREA...ESPECIALLY NEAR LADYSMITH...WHERE              
MID LEVEL DEFORMATION IS BETTER LATER SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE SYSTEM              
SHOWS SIGNS OF NEGATIVE TILT. AS A RESULT OF THE LOW STRENGTHENING              
TO OUR EAST LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY...IT WILL BE QUITE WINDY                  
OVER MUCH OF THE REGION ON SUNDAY. INDICATIONS OF A 12 MB GRADIENT              
ACROSS THE MN CWA WITH 30 KNOT WINDS POSSIBLE. THIS SETS UP                     
SEVERAL PROBLEMS FOR SUNDAY. COULD THERE BE CONSIDERABLE BLOWING                
SNOW AND LOW VISIBILITY OVER WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN MN? HAVE                 
INCLUDED THE STRONG WINDS AND BLOWING SNOW FOR NOW. THINGS QUIET                
DOWN FOR A BIT MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE FINALLY BUILDS               
IN. BROUGHT SOME SNOW BACK IN LATER IN THE WEEK PER THE ECMWF                   
WHICH WAS HIGHLY FAVORED (PREEPD).                                              
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION.../06Z TAF ISSUANCE/                                                  
CHALLENGE WITH AVIATION REMAINS PRECIP TIMING AND TYPE THROUGH                  
THE NEXT SIX HOURS...THEN SNOWFALL INTENSITY AT WRN WI TAF SITES                
DURING THE DAY TODAY. VLIFR CIGS AND VISBYS TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE              
ENTIRE AREA THROUGH THIS MORNING. OBSERVATIONS AND RADAR                        
SIGNATURES INDICATING PRECIP TYPE SHOULD BE ALL SNOW AT AXN                     
NOW. THE BAND OVER I-29 SHOULD WEAKEN IN INTENSITY AS IT SHIFTS                 
OVER AXN OVERNIGHT. LOW TO MID LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION CURRENTLY               
LEADING TO SOME DRIZZLE OVER THE AREA WITH THE 13KM RUC MODEL                   
BRINGING MORE INTENSE ADVECTION UP BETWEEN 09 AND 12Z. CURRENT                  
TAMDAR SOUNDINGS FROM DEPARTING AND ASCENDING FLIGHTS AT MSP HAVE               
THE WARM CORE AT 4C. THIS WOULD POINT TOWARDS -RA OR POSSIBLY -FZRA             
IN THE 09 TO 12Z TIME AT MSP IF THE TEMPS DROP A COUPLE DEGREES IN              
THE NEXT FEW HOURS. HOWEVER...THE WARM LAYER ALOFT IS DRY                       
INDICATING EVAPORATIVE COOLING COULD LEAD TO A QUICK TRANSITION TO              
SNOW. HAVE TEMPOED THE TWO PRECIP TYPES FOR NOW...BUT CONFIDENCE                
IS HIGH THAT AFTER 12Z SNOW SHOULD BE THE DOMINANT PRECIP TYPE AT               
MSP. A LITTLE LATER IS ON TAP FOR THE WI TAF SITES AS COLD AIR                  
SHIFTS WEST. AS SRN STREAM LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LIFTS NORTH                      
NORTHEAST INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES...SNOW WILL BECOME MODERATE                
AT TIMES DURING THE AFTN AT EAU. WINDS ACROSS MN TAF SITES WILL                 
BE INCREASING DURING THE AFTN LEADING TO SOME BLOWING SNOW KEEPING              
VISBYS LOW DESPITE SNOWFALL POTENTIAL SHIFTING EAST. WINDS MAY                  
GUST UP TO 30 KTS AT THESE LOCALES.                                             
BEYOND TAF PERIOD...STRONG WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE                
SATURDAY NIGHT AND ESPECIALLY ON SUNDAY. GUSTS TO OVER 30 KTS WITH              
SOME LINGERING SNOW IS CURRENTLY EXPECTED.                                      
&&                                                                              
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
MN...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST SATURDAY FOR BLUE EARTH-BROWN-           
     CARVER-DAKOTA-FARIBAULT-FREEBORN-GOODHUE-HENNEPIN-LE SUEUR-                
     MARTIN-MCLEOD-MEEKER-NICOLLET-RAMSEY-REDWOOD-RENVILLE-RICE-                
     SCOTT-SIBLEY-STEELE-WASECA-WASHINGTON-WATONWAN-WRIGHT.                     
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 12 PM CST SATURDAY FOR CHIPPEWA-             
     DOUGLAS-LAC QUI PARLE-POPE-STEVENS-SWIFT-TODD-YELLOW                       
     MEDICINE.                                                                  
WI...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST SATURDAY FOR BARRON-CHIPPEWA-            
     DUNN-EAU CLAIRE-PEPIN-PIERCE-POLK-RUSK-ST. CROIX.                          
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY                  
     MORNING FOR BARRON-CHIPPEWA-DUNN-EAU CLAIRE-PEPIN-RUSK.                    
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
RAH/MTF                                                                         
</pre> mn                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED                                            
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM                                         
259 AM MST SAT DEC 22 2007                                                      
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
LATEST WATER VAPOR LOOP EARLY THIS MORNING SHOWS AN IMPRESSIVE UPPER            
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE NE PLAINS WITH A DISTINCT COMMA HEAD AND           
DRY SLOT FEATURE. RADAR TRENDS SHOW SNOW IS HOLDING STEADY OVER THE             
NORTHERN MTNS WITH CLEARING FARTHER TO THE WEST AND SOUTH...AND HEAVY           
SNOW ALONG THE INTERSTATE 40 CORRIDOR FROM SANTA ROSA EAST TO KTCC.             
WINDS ARE ALSO HOWELING OUT OF THE NORTH AT 30 TO 40 MPH CREATING               
VERY HAZARDOUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS IN MUCH OF THE NE PART OF THE CWA              
NORTH OF A FORT SUMNER TO CLOVIS LINE. WILL INCLUDE ADV LEVEL WINDS             
WITH THE WINTER HAZARD PRODUCTS. IR SAT SHOWS CLEARING OVER THE WESTERN         
HALF OF THE STATE WITH THE BACK EDGE OF THE COMMA HEAD NEARLY STATIONARY        
FROM CUBA SE TO KSAF. WILL CANCEL WARNINGS/ADVISORIES THAT WERE TO              
EXPIRE AT 600 AM. WARNINGS WILL CONTINUE IN THE EAST WITH ANOTHER               
1 TO 3 INCHES ESPECIALLY ALONG INTERSTATE 40 NEAR KTCC. ADVISORY TO             
THE SOUTH WILL ALSO STAY INTACT MAINLY FOR THE BLOWING SNOW HAZARD              
APPROACHING FROM THE NORTH. EXPECT CLEARING IN THE EAST AFTER 18Z               
AS INDICATED BY RUC13 SO DAY SHIFT MAY CONSIDER DROPPING ADVISORY               
IN THE SE AT THAT TIME. THINK WARNINGS WILL CONTINUE UNTIL 600 PM IN            
THE NE DUE TO EXTREMELY HAZARDOUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS.                            
VERY COLD NIGHT EXPECTED ACROSS THE CWA...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS WITH              
SNOWPACK. SUNDAY WILL BE VERY NICE EARLY IN THE DAY WITH INCREASING             
CLOUDS OVER THE NORTH. NEXT SYSTEM WILL MOVE QUICKLY SE ACROSS THE              
SANGRES AND NE PLAINS SUNDAY NIGHT WITH ADVISORY LEVEL SNOWS POSSIBLE           
OVER THE SANGRES SIMPLY DUE TO VERY HIGH SNOW RATIOS. COLD WEATHER              
CONTINUES MONDAY ACROSS THE REGION DESPITE MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. 00Z              
MODELS ARE BEGINNING TO CHANGE THEIR TUNE ON WEATHER PATTERN FOR                
CHRISTMAS INTO THE NEW YEAR WITH SYSTEMS PASSING FARTHER TO THE NORTH           
THAN PREVIOUS RUNS. THIS STILL MEANS POSSIBLE SIGNIFICANT WINTER                
STORMS FOR THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS AND NE PLAINS HOWEVER THE SOUTH               
AND WEST MAY ESCAPE WITH GLANCING BLOWS. TWEAKED EXTENDED GRIDS TO              
ADJUST POPS SLIGHTLY FARTHER NE HOWEVER WILL WAIT FOR A MORE CONSISTENT         
TREND TO APPEAR.                                                                
GUYER                                                                           
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
OCCASIONAL IFR CONDITIONS IN SNOW...BLOWING SNOW AND FREEZING FOG TO            
PERSIST FROM KSAF NORTHEAST AND EASTWARD TO THE TEXAS AND COLORADO              
BORDER THROUGH MIDDAY. LOCAL MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION ALONG AND WEST OF             
THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY EXPECTED THROUGH MIDDAY ALSO. NORTHWEST                   
SURFACE WIND TO INCREASE AT KFMN...WITH NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS                
GUSTING TO AROUND 35 OR 40 KTS ALONG AND EAST OF CENTRAL MOUNTAIN               
CHAIN. WINDS SHOULD TAPER OFF LATE AFTERNOON.                                   
NEXT AVIATION DISCUSSION SCHEDULED FOR 22Z.                                     
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
FARMINGTON......................  35  14  38  16 /   0   0   5   5              
GALLUP..........................  35   6  40   6 /   0   0   0   0              
GRANTS..........................  35   7  41   9 /   5   0   0   0              
GLENWOOD........................  44  21  52  23 /   0   0   0   0              
CHAMA...........................  29  -4  32  -6 /   5   0  10  20              
LOS ALAMOS......................  34   8  37   5 /  10   0   5   5              
RED RIVER.......................  20   2  31   5 /  20   0  10  40              
TAOS............................  33   4  38   6 /  20   0   5  20              
SANTA FE........................  32  11  36   8 /  20   0   5   5              
SANTA FE AIRPORT................  36  12  39  16 /  20   0   5   5              
ESPANOLA........................  40  10  42  17 /  20   0   5   5              
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS.............  42  20  43  24 /  10   0   0   0              
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY..............  44  16  45  20 /  10   0   0   0              
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS...........  42  16  41  20 /  20   0   0   0              
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA...........  43  18  44  23 /  10   0   0   0              
SOCORRO.........................  45  19  48  24 /   5   0   0   0              
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST.........  37  12  38  14 /  20   0   5   0              
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA...............  37  17  40  19 /  30   0   0   0              
CARRIZOZO.......................  39  20  42  21 /  20   0   0   0              
RUIDOSO.........................  32  17  40  17 /  20   0   0   0              
RATON...........................  32   8  40  11 /  30   0   5  20              
LAS VEGAS.......................  31  14  38  13 /  50   0   5  20              
ROY.............................  35  16  37  15 /  60   0   5  20              
CLAYTON.........................  33  14  40  18 /  60   0   0  20              
SANTA ROSA......................  42  16  43  20 /  60   0   0   5              
TUCUMCARI.......................  38  13  42  18 /  60   0   0  20              
FORT SUMNER.....................  43  19  50  20 /  60   0   0   0              
CLOVIS..........................  37  19  48  21 /  70   0   0   0              
PORTALES........................  39  19  48  20 /  70   0   0   0              
ROSWELL.........................  48  22  52  25 /  30   0   0   0              
&&                                                                              
.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM MST THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE                      
FOLLOWING ZONES...NMZ002>007-010>013.                                           
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM MST THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE                   
FOLLOWING ZONES...NMZ016>021-026.                                               
HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 9 AM MST THIS MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING                 
ZONES...NMZ005.                                                                 
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
GUYER/99                                                                        
CORRECTION TO ADD HIGH WIND WARNING TO ZONE 5                                   
</pre> nm                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA                                          
615 AM CST SAT DEC 22 2007                                                      
.UPDATED FOR TO DROP PORTIONS OF DENSE FOG ADVISORY AND TO ADD 12Z              
AVIATION DISCUSSION...                                                          
WINDS SHIFTING NORTHWESTERLY EARLIER THAN PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT                    
ALLOWING VSBYS TO IMPROVE ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA SO HAVE CANCELLED              
WESTERN/SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE ADVY. AREAS ACROSS THE EAST CENTRAL            
CWA REMAIN BENEATH THE DENSE FOG...SO HAVE ADVY GOING UNTIL 15Z FOR             
THAT AREA. WILL MONITOR AS WINDS SHIFT...ADVY MAY BE ABLE TO BE                 
DROPPED EARLY.                                                                  
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
IMPENDING SYSTEM CURRENTLY PULLING OUT OF ROCKIES WITH SEVERAL SHRT             
WVS ROTATING AROUND UPPER LOW NEAR NM/CO BORDER.  ANOTHER WEAKER WV             
NOTED INTO NWRN IA TRYING TO SPREAD LGT PCPN INTO THAT AREA.  VERY              
STRONG QG FORCING IN IMMEDIATE VICINITY OF THIS COMPACT LOW BUT HAS             
YET TO SPREAD TOO FAR INTO NE OR KS WITH SIGNIFICANT PCPN STILL                 
RELEGATED TO ERN CO/WRN KS.  NRN STREAM SHRT WV OVER SERN                       
SASKATCHEWAN WITH ASSOCIATED FORCING NOT A FACTOR FOR THE TIME                  
BEING.  08Z SFC ANLYS PLACES FRONTAL BOUNDARY FROM JUST W OF TWIN               
CITIES TO SUBTLE LOW JUST N OF LWD THEN TRAILING INTO OK.  BROAD                
PRES RISES NOTED THROUGHOUT PLAINS WITH VERY DRY UPSTREAM AIRMASS.              
&&                                                                              
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
OBVIOUS PRIMARY CONCERN WILL BE IMPACT OF WEEKEND STORM...BUT WILL              
HAVE TO DEAL WITH DENSE FOG ADVY FIRST.  WITH INCREASING NWLY WINDS             
ALREADY TO ICL-CIN-EST LINE WITH CFP HAVE SHIFTED ADVY EWD AND IS               
NOW IN EFFECT E OF THESE AREAS TIL 15Z AND BASICALLY I35 CORRIDOR               
EWD TIL 18Z.  TEMPS SHOULD BE FALLING SO FORECAST HIGHS ARE VERY                
CLOSE TO CURRENT READINGS.                                                      
REGARDING THE WINTER STORM...NAM SEEMED TO INITIALIZE JUST A TAD BIT            
BETTER AT 00Z WITH SLIGHTLY DEEPER FEATURES THROUGH DEPTH OF                    
ATMOSPHERE.  HOWEVER WILL BE FAVORING GFS AS WELL AS 00Z SPC WRF AND            
THEIR MORE WLY QPF SOLUTION.  CONFIDENCE NOT THE GREATEST WITH 00Z              
ECMWF AND 06Z NAM STILL GOING FARTHER E.  HOWEVER GFS...ALONG WITH              
06Z RUC...SEEM TO HAVE BETTER HANDLE ON CURRENT WX AFTER 06Z AND                
EXTRAPOLATION OF DEVELOPING DEF ZN INTO IA..  THIS WOULD SUGGEST                
THAT FARTHER W SOLUTION THE WAY TO GO WITH HEAVIER SNOWS BACK INTO              
DSM METRO AND POINTS S AND E.  MODEL BIASES OFTEN PLACE HEAVIER                 
ACCUMS TOO FAR SE...WITH THE NAM OFTEN SEEMING TO BE SHADING HIGHER             
QPF AMOUNTS TOO CLOSE TO CONVECTION AND NOT EMPHASIZING DEF ZN                  
ADEQUATELY.                                                                     
MUCH LIKE YESTERDAY...FORCING IN DENDRITIC LAYER SEEMS TO BE IN                 
H5/H6 LAYER OR AROUND 300/305K ISENT SFCS.  UVM IN THESE AREAS OF               
CONCERN SPREAD NEWD INTO IA BY 18Z BUILDING ON SE-NE ORIENTED BAND              
ALREADY DEVELOPING ON RADAR.  ALTHOUGH SOME THETA-E ADVECTION AND               
FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING IS NOTED...BRUNT OF UVM SEEMS TO BE DRIVEN              
BY DPVA AS SHRT WV LIFTS OUT.  THIS STILL RESULTS IN STRONG OVERALL             
QG FORCING INTO THE AFTN BEFORE REACHING FAR ERN PORTIONS THIS EVE.             
SERN FRINGE OF THIS AREA WILL SEE THETA-E LAPSE RATES AND EPV GOING             
NEGATIVE SO EXPECT STATIC STABILITY WILL BE QUITE LOW.  LIGHTNING               
HAS ALREADY BEEN OBSERVED NEAR LOW CORE AND WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED              
TO BRIEFLY SEE SOME CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS BEFORE STABILITY MIN MOVES              
INTO IL THIS EVE.  CURRENT SNOW TOTALS VARY FROM 4-7 INCHES IN THE              
WARNING...BUT COULD SEE ISOLD HIGHER AMOUNTS IF CONVECTION PANS OUT.            
THIS CONVECTION AND POTENTIAL LATENT HEAT RELEASE MAY BE ANOTHER                
REASON TO FAVOR MORE NWLY GFS SOLUTION WITH LOWER PRESSURES INTO                
COLDER AIR.  ALSO JUST NOTICED 06Z NAM HAS STRONG DENDRITIC FORCING             
BACK INTO ALO-OTM CORRIDOR THROUGH 06Z BUT QPF NOT FAR ENOUGH                   
WWD TO REFLECT THAT.  ANOTHER REASON TO FAVOR 00Z GFS.                          
HAVE SWITCHED PREVIOUS WATCH TO WINTER STORM WARNING AND ADVY.                  
WRNG IS ESSENTIALLY WHERE SNOW AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE 4 INCHES              
PLUS.  THIS FUDGES CRITERIA SOMEWHAT...BUT BLENDS WELL INTO ADJACENT            
HEADLINES AND AM NOT GOING TO WORRY ABOUT DETAILS CONSIDERING THE               
BLOWING SNOW POTENTIAL.  JUST TO THE NW...SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW ADVY            
IN EFFECT WHERE AMOUNTS SHOULD REACH 1-4".                                      
SFC PRESSURES GO FROM JUST ABOVE 1000MB THIS EVE TO 985 OR LESS BY              
MIDDAY SUN WHEN LOW REACHES GREAT LAKES.  THIS WILL REALLY CRANK THE            
WINDS UP WITH IMPRESSIVE ISALLOBARIC COMPONENT AND PRES GRADIENT                
LIKELY PUSHING WINDS INTO BLIZZARD WARNING POTENTIAL ERN HALF.  NRN             
IL LOOKS TO BE HIT ESPECIALLY HARD.  THIS WOULD BE LATE 2ND PERIOD              
SO WILL LEAVE THAT UPGRADE FOR LATER SHIFTS BUT WOULD NOT BE                    
SURPRISED IF IT IS REACHED EARLY SUN WITH PROJECTED GUSTS INTO THE              
LOWER/MIDDLE 30KTS.  EXPECT PLENTY OF WRAP AROUND STRATUS AND                   
POTENTIALLY FLURRIES CONTINUING LATER SUN AND SUN NIGHT.  NO CHANGES            
TO LATER PERIODS.                                                               
CONSIDERING STRENGTH OF CAA...SNOW COVER AND PERSISTENT LOW CLOUDS              
HAVE GONE JUST BELOW COOLEST GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS SUN.  DO NOT SEE                
MUCH THERMAL CHANGE SUN NIGHT WITH MORE STRATUS AND WINDS KEEPING               
THINGS MIXED SO ONLY WENT WITH SEVERAL DEGREE DIURNAL DROP TOWARD               
HIGHER END OF GUIDANCE.  LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LINGERS INTO MON AND                
WITH INVERSION STILL IN PLACE AROUND SOLAR MIN DO NOT SEE MUCH HOPE             
FOR REBOUND.  HAVE CLIPPED CURRENT MON FORECAST QUITE A BIT NOW                 
GOING AT LEAST A CATEGORY BELOW COOLEST GUIDANCE...WHICH IS A BLEND             
OF RAW TEMPS.  MAY HAVE TO GO EVEN FURTHER IN UPCOMING PACKAGES.                
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...22/12Z                                                              
VSBYS STARTING TO IMPROVE AT ALL TAF SITES WITH THE EXCEPTION OF                
KALO...AS A COLD FRONT PROGRESSES THROUGH THE CWA. WINDS HAVE TAKEN             
ON SOME SORT OF WESTERLY COMPONENT...AND EXPECT ALL TERMINALS TO                
HAVE NORTHWEST WINDS BY 15Z. STILL EXPECTING FAIRLY DECENT SYSTEM TO            
IMPACT THE REGION TODAY...WITH PRECIPITATION MOVING INTO                        
KFOD...MCW...AND KALO BY 18Z...AND INTO KDSM AND KOTM THROUGH EARLY             
AFTERNOON. PRECIPITATION MAY BEGIN AS RAIN...BUT WILL QUICKLY                   
CHANGEOVER TO SNOW THIS MORNING AT KFOD...KMCW...AND KALO. KDSM WILL            
TURN TO SNOW BY EARLY AFTERNOON...AND KOTM BY LATE AFTERNOON.                   
PRECIPITATION MAY BE HEAVY AT TIMES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TAF                     
SITES...WITH WINDS PICKING UP INTO THE AFTERNOON/OVERNIGHT HOURS.               
THEREFORE EXPECT IMPACTS FROM BLOWING SNOW AT MOST TERMINAL                     
LOCATIONS. HAVE ONLY GONE WITH 1SM VSBYS FROM BLSN AT THIS                      
TIME...BUT EXPECT AS SYSTEM RAMPS UP VSBYS LESS THAN A MILE WILL BE             
MORE PREVALENT.                                                                 
&&                                                                              
.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
DENSE FOG ADVY FOR EAST CENTRAL PORTION OF CWA THROUGH 15Z.                     
WINTER STORM WARNING BASICALLY ALONG AND EAST OF                                
CORNING-AMES-HAMPTON LINE 18Z-12Z.                                              
SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW ADVY BASICALLY ALONG AND EAST OF DNS-CIN-AXA              
LINE BLENDING INTO WARNING...15Z-12Z.                                           
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SMALL/ALBRECHT                                                                  
</pre> ia                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
700 AM EST SAT DEC 22 2007                                                      
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
THE MAIN CONCERN WITH THIS FORECAST UPDATE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR AND             
FOG THIS AFTERNOON...                                                           
.SYNOPSIS...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC SHOWING TWO CLOSED LOW                  
EMBEDDED IN A LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER MID SECTION OF CONUS. ONE OF THE             
LOWS IS OVER NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA AND THE OTHER IS OVER THE               
TEXAS PANHANDLE. WEAK SHORTWAVES BEING EJECTED OUT OF THIS SYSTEM               
ARE OVER IOWA AND OVER LAKE SUPERIOR. SURFACE ANALYSIS DEPICTS A LOW            
OVER EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND A LOW OVER WESTERN ONTARIO WITH A COLD                
FRONT EXTENDING BETWEEN THE TWO LOWS. A LARGE HIGH OVER MIDDLE HIGH             
PLAINS IS PUSHING THE FRONTAL SYSTEM EAST. THE FLOW AHEAD OF THE                
FRONTAL SYSTEM IS DRAWING DEEP MOISTURE AND WARM AIR FROM THE GULF              
NORTHWARD INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION. ISENTROPIC ASCENT AHEAD            
OF THE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO PRODUCE RAINS OVER THE AREA. KMQT-88D                
SHOWING SEVERAL BANDS OF RAIN MOVING THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA. LOW             
LEVEL MOISTURE AND SURFACE BASED INVERSION AND LIGHT WINDS HAVE                 
PRODUCE CONSIDERABLE FOG AROUND THE AREA THIS MORNING.                          
.SHORT TERM...TODAY...                                                          
THE MID LEVEL LOW OVER NORTH DAKOTA WILL SHIFT TO EAST CENTRAL NORTH            
DAKOTA TODAY...WHILE THE TEXAS LOW LIFTS NORTHEAST INTO SOUTHEAST               
KANSAS. THE ONTARIO SURFACE LOW WILL SETTLE SOUTH INTO WESTERN LAKE             
SUPERIOR WHILE THE OKLAHOMA LOW MOVES INTO SOUTHERN MISSOURI. THE               
FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO DRAW MORE DEEP MOISTURE INTO THE                
REGION AHEAD OF IT. AREAS OF RAIN WILL CONTINUE OVER THE AREA TODAY             
AS WEAK SHORTWAVES SHIFT INTO THE AREA AND ISENTROPIC ASCENT PREVAIL            
OVER THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON.                                                   
LONG TERM...TONIGHT AND LATER...                                                
FOR TNGT...NAM/GFS IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT SHOWING DETAILS OF PHASING            
BRANCHES...WITH RDPLY DEEPENING LO PRES MOVING TO NEAR GRB BY 12Z               
SUN. INCRSG UPR DIFFLUENCE/H5 HGT FALLS/DEEP LYR QVECTOR CNVGC TO               
THE NE OF DVLPG NEGATIVELY TILTED CUTOFF LO AT H5 JUST TO THE SW OF             
MPX ESPECIALLY AFT 06Z WL SUPPORT INCRSGLY WDSPRD PCPN. TRACK OF SFC            
LO WL DRAW ENUF WARM AIR INTO THE ERN/NCNTRL FA TO MAINTAIN JUST                
RA... BUT OVER THE W THE COMBINATION OF INTENSE UVV/DYNAMIC COOLING             
AND INFLUX OF LLVL COLD AIR WL CAUSE THE PCPN TO BE SN OR CHG TO SN.            
USING NAM FCST WBZ HGT OF 1500FT/H925-85 THKNS OF 676M AS A GUIDE...            
LOOK FOR THE RA/SN LINE TO BE FM CMX-HURON MNTS-CRYSTAL FALLS OR SO             
BY 12Z SUN ON THE COLD SIDE OF THE H85 LO TRACK.                                
ON SUN...SFC LO PROGGED TO MOVE TO SLOWLY TO ARND SCNTRL LK SUP BY              
LATE IN THE DAY AS UPR LO SLIDES INTO THE CNTRL GRT LKS...SUPPORTING            
12HR H5 HGT FALLS UP TO 150M. PCPN WL GRDLY CHG TO SN WITH DYNAMIC              
COOLING...BUT WARM LYR ALF/TROWAL FEATURE WL RETARD CHGOVER NEAR LK             
SUP OVER THE NCNTRL...ESPECIALLY WITH N FLOW OFF THE WARM LK WATERS.            
IN FACT...THE PCPN MAY CHG TO SN FASTER OVER THE E AND NEAR LK MI               
THAN AT THE CITY OF MQT. OTRW...ARRIVAL OF HIER SPECIFIC HUMIDITY FM            
THE NNE TO THE W OF LO WL ENHANCE PCPN RATES ESPECIALLY WHERE LLVL              
NNE FLOW UPSLOPES AND WHERE CROSS SECTION SHOWS THETA-E DCRSG A BIT             
WITH HGT ABV TROWAL ACRS THE NCNTRL W OF MQT. WHERE THE PCPN FALLS              
AS SN...INCRSG WINDS WL CAUSE CONSIDERABLE BLSN. BUT FCST SCENARIO              
ATTM SEEMS TO SUG WINDS/BLSN WL NOT BE AS SGNFT AS PREVIOUSLY                   
THOUGHT. SINCE THE HEAVIEST SN WL FALL ONLY LATE IN THE SECOND PD               
AND THE THIRD PD...OPTED TO KEEP GOING WATCH AND NOT UPGRADE TO                 
WRNG...ESPECIALLY SINCE 06Z NAM APPEARS TO BE SLOWER BRINGING IN THE            
SHARPER DYNAMICS.                                                               
EXPECT ANY PCPN TO BE ALL SN SUN NGT BUT THEN TO GRDLY DIMINISH AS              
HGTS RISE FAIRLY SHARPLY IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING UPR LO WITH               
UPR CNVGC/DNVA/DEEP LYR QVECTOR DVGC. INCOMING AIRMASS DOES NOT                 
APPEAR PARTICULARLY COLD (H85 TEMPS ARND -10C) EITHER WITH HIER MSTR            
TENDING ...SO LES SHOULD NOT GET OUT OF HAND. BUT PERSISTENT CYC                
FLOW WL CONT -SHSN THRU THE NGT ALBEIT AT A LIGHTER RATE.                       
COORDINATED WITH APX/GRB/DLH.                                                   
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION (FOR THE 12Z TAF ISSUANCE)...                                         
AVIATION FORECASTS ARE A LITTLE TRICKY...PRIMARILY AT CMX. DESPITE              
PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND A SURFACE WIND FROM THE EAST...CMX             
HAS CEILINGS NOW AT VFR WITH VSBYS LIFR. BASED ON PREVIOUS OBS                  
INDICATED A 1000 FT DECK AND MODEL DATA...DECIDED TO KEEP AT LEAST A            
LOW MVFR CEILING IN GENERAL. THERE IS ALSO A 100 FT SCT DECK AT THE             
SITE...WHICH WITH THE EAST WIND...HAVE DECIDED TO INCLUDE A TEMPO               
FOR A VLIFR DECK. VSBYS AND CEILINGS DROPPING TO LIFR THIS EVENING              
STILL LOOKS GOOD...AND WITH PLENTY OF MOISTURE/RAIN AROUND                      
ASSOCIATED WITH LOW PRESSURE LIFTING NORTH FROM MISSOURI TOWARDS                
GREEN BAY...CANNOT IMAGINE CONDITIONS GETTING ANY BETTER AT CMX.                
RAIN SHOULD CHANGE OVER TO SNOW AT CMX DURING THE DAY SUNDAY. AT                
SAW...SE WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD...RESULTING IN            
UPSLOPE FLOW WHICH SHOULD HELP HOLD CEILINGS AT LIFR. AS FAR AS                 
VSBYS GO...CURRENT LIFR READINGS SHOULD BE ABLE TO HOLD AT LEAST A              
FEW MORE HOURS...AND PERHAPS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON THANKS TO                    
SNOWMELT MAINTAINING FOG. HOWEVER...THE TYPICAL DIURNAL VARIATION               
COULD ALLOW VSBYS TO CLIMB TO IFR FOR SOME OF THIS AFTERNOON. A                 
STEADY RAIN DEVELOPING TONIGHT SHOULD ONLY HELP TO KEEP CEILINGS                
LOW...BUT THERE IS SOME CONCERN FOR VSBYS TO RISE. WILL BANK ON                 
SNOWMELT TO HELP KEEP VSBYS LOW.                                                
&&                                                                              
.MARINE (FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)...                       
AFTER A GENERAL QUIET PERIOD ON LAKE SUPERIOR THROUGH TONIGHT WITH              
WINDS NO HIGHER THAN 25 KT (GREATEST NEAR WHITEFISH POINT)...EXPECT             
WINDS TO REALLY INCREASE SUNDAY. THIS RAPID INCREASE IS DUE TO LOW              
PRESSURE OVER SOUTHERN MISSOURI THIS EVENING THAT RAPIDLY DEEPENS AS            
IT HEADS DUE NORTH TOWARD CENTRAL UPPER MICHIGAN. AS THE LOW MOVES              
TO NEAR MARQUETTE EARLY SUNDAY AFTERNOON...NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS             
ACROSS WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR SHOULD INCREASE TO GALES. BY SUNDAY                
EVENING...THERE IS A CHANCE THEY COULD INCREASE TO STORM FORCE...               
ESPECIALLY NEAR ISLE ROYALE. AS THE LOW SHIFTS FROM NEAR MUNISING               
SUNDAY EVENING INTO NORTHWEST QUEBEC LATE IN THE NIGHT...WINDS WILL             
QUICKLY RELAX...DROPPING BELOW GALES ACROSS ALL OF LAKE SUPERIOR                
JUST AFTER MIDNIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT. WINDS BELOW 30 KT ARE THEN                    
EXPECTED FOR CHRISTMAS EVE INTO WEDNESDAY...WITH A HIGH PRESSURE                
RIDGE CROSSING MONDAY NIGHT AND A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH CROSSING                  
TUESDAY NIGHT.                                                                  
&&                                                                              
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY                      
MORNING FOR MIZ001>005-009-010-084.                                             
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY                      
AFTERNOON FOR MIZ011.                                                           
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SYNOPSIS AND SHORT TERM...DLG                                                   
LONG TERM...KC                                                                  
AVIATION...AJ                                                                   
MARINE...AJ                                                                     
</pre> mi                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS                                             
1025 AM CST SAT DEC 22 2007                                                     
.UPDATE...STILL A VERY MURKY FORECAST SCENARIO AS FAR AS CONVECTIVE             
POTENTIAL TODAY. WHILE CURRENTLY RELATIVELY COOL...STABLE AIR EXISTS            
OVER THE FORECAST AREA...12Z JAN/LCH SOUNDINGS INDICATE THIS LAYER              
IS QUITE SHALLOW...WITH STRONG WARM/MOIST ADVECTION OCCURRING JUST              
ABOVE IT. HENCE...ANY DECENT MIXING SHOULD ACTUALLY MIX DOWN HIGHER             
SURFACE DEWPOINTS OVER THE AREA. WHILE THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT FOR            
ROUBST CONVECTION IS CURRENTLY PRETTY POOR...SHORT TERM MODELS /RUC             
AND NAM/ INSIST THAT IT WILL IMPROVE QUICKLY AHEAD OF THE FRONT IN              
NE LA/SE AR AND WESTERN MS. THESE MODELS...AS WELL AS THE JAN LOCAL             
WRF ENSEMBLE SYSTEM...SHOW THAT MLCAPE VALUES OF 400-800 J/KG SHOULD            
BE REALIZED BY 00Z AHEAD OF THE FRONT IN AN AREA OF LOW/MID 60S SFC             
DEWPOINTS. WHILE DEWPOINTS ARE CURRENTLY RISING...BELIEVE IT WILL               
TAKE SOME SUN TO GET ENOUGH MOISTURE/INSTABILITY TO REALIZE THESE               
VALUES. VISIBLE SATELLITE DOES SHOW SOME LARGE BREAKS CURRENTLY                 
ACROSS NE LA/WRN WITH THIN SPOTS AND SMALL BREAKS FARTHER WEST                  
ACROSS WRN/CENTRAL LA...BUT TEND TO THINK IT WILL NOT BE AS ROBUST              
AS MODELS CURRENTLY INDICATE.                                                   
IN ANY EVENT...A NARROW LINE OF CONVECTION HAS ALREADY DEVELOPED                
FROM TXK BACK TO NEAR HGX. CONVECTION LOOKS TO BE GETTING MORE                  
ROBUST IN SE TX WHERE BETTER INSTABILITY/MOISTURE IS FEEDING                    
IT...AND IN FACT THERE IS NOW LIGHTNING WITH THIS CONVECTION. THE               
LINE IS CURRENTLY A BIT AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...BUT EXTRAPOLATION             
BRINGS IT TO THE MS RIVER ABOUT 23Z...WHICH WOULD MEAN IT WOULD BE              
JUST ABOUT COINCIDENT WITH THE COLD FRONT BY THE TIME IT REACHES OUR            
AREA. ASSUMING THIS LINE IS THE MAIN CONVECTIVE LINE...THINK IF                 
NOTHING ELSE IT WILL CONTINUE TO BE FED BY MOISTURE/INSTABILITY JUST            
ABOVE THE SURFACE. IN FACT...JUST TAKING A QUICK LOOK AT NEW GFS IT             
SHOWS STRONG DESTABILITZATION OCCURRING AT THE 850 MB LEVEL...WITH              
AN AXIS OF -4 TO -6 SHOWALTER INDICES DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON WITH            
AXIS OF 330+K THETA-E AIR SURGING AHEAD OF LINE.  STRONGLY FAVORABLE            
KINEMATIC ENVIRONMENT WOULD FAVOR EMBEDDED BOW/SUPERCELL STRUCTURES             
IN SAID LINE. IF LOW LEVEL ENVIRONMENT BECOMES FAVORABLE ENOUGH WITH            
SOME HEATING/MOISTURE ADVECTION THIS AFTERNOON...SEVERE STORMS WITH             
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS THE PRIMARY THREAT GIVEN LARGE DCAPE...ALTHOUGH             
A TORNADO OR TWO WOULD BE POSSIBLE IF MORE ROBUST NEAR SURFACE                  
DESTABILZATION OCCURS AS MODELS SHOW. THREAT SHOULD DIMINISH                    
SOMEHWAT AS LINE MOVES EAST INTO EASTERN MS WITH INSTABILITY WANING             
EVEN AT THE 900/800 MB LEVEL. WILL UPDATE HWO AND GRAPHICS TO                   
REFLECT LATEST THINKING.                                                        
WITH REGARD TO WINDS...THEY ARE CURRENTLY NOT RESPONDING AS MUCH AS             
ORIGINALLY THOUGHT...LIKELY DUE TO CLOUDS AND LACK OF MIXING.                   
HOWEVER...WITH SATELLITE SHOWING SOME SUN BREAKING OUT IN ADVISORY              
AREA AT THIS TIME...THINK WINDS WILL EVENTUALLY PICK UP AND WILL                
LEAVE ADVISORY AS IS.                                                           
THANKS TO SPC FOR THE COORDINATION.                                             
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...EXPECT AT LEAST BKN LOW CLOUDS AT MOST LOCATIONS THROUGH            
THE AFTERNOON WITH A MAINTENANCE OF GENERALLY MVFR CONDITIONS.                  
OCCASIONAL SCT CONDITIONS COULD OCCUR THOUGH AS LARGE BREAKS                    
CURRENTLY ON SATELLITE IN WRN MS. WILL TIME SHRA/TSRA THREAT IN TAFS            
BASED ON EXPECTED TIMING OF CONVECTIVE LINE. CLOUDS WILL LINGER                 
TONIGHT AFTER FROPA...BUT EXPECT RAPID CLEARING BY SUN AM.                      
&&                                                                              
.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
MS...LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 AM CST SUNDAY FOR MSZ018-          
     019-025>038-040>044-047>049-053-059-060.                                   
LA...LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 AM CST SUNDAY FOR                  
     LAZ007>009-015-016-023>026.                                                
AR...LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 AM CST SUNDAY FOR ARZ074-          
     075.                                                                       
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
08                                                                              
</pre> ms                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM                                         
906 AM MST SAT DEC 22 2007                                                      
.UPDATE...REMOVED THE HIGH WIND WARNING HEADLINE FROM THE NORTHEAST             
HIGHLANDS AND LOWERED ALL WINDS SPEEDS A NOTCH ACROSS NE NEW MEXICO.            
40                                                                              
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION...259 AM MST SAT DEC 22 2007                                   
LATEST WATER VAPOR LOOP EARLY THIS MORNING SHOWS AN IMPRESSIVE UPPER            
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE NE PLAINS WITH A DISTINCT COMMA HEAD AND           
DRY SLOT FEATURE. RADAR TRENDS SHOW SNOW IS HOLDING STEADY OVER THE             
NORTHERN MTNS WITH CLEARING FARTHER TO THE WEST AND SOUTH...AND HEAVY           
SNOW ALONG THE INTERSTATE 40 CORRIDOR FROM SANTA ROSA EAST TO KTCC.             
WINDS ARE ALSO HOWELING OUT OF THE NORTH AT 30 TO 40 MPH CREATING               
VERY HAZARDOUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS IN MUCH OF THE NE PART OF THE CWA              
NORTH OF A FORT SUMNER TO CLOVIS LINE. WILL INCLUDE ADV LEVEL WINDS             
WITH THE WINTER HAZARD PRODUCTS. IR SAT SHOWS CLEARING OVER THE                 
WESTERN HALF OF THE STATE WITH THE BACK EDGE OF THE COMMA HEAD                  
NEARLY STATIONARY FROM CUBA SE TO KSAF. WILL CANCEL WARNINGS AND                
ADVISORIES THAT WERE TO EXPIRE AT 600 AM. WARNINGS WILL CONTINUE IN             
THE EAST WITH ANOTHER 1 TO 3 INCHES ESPECIALLY ALONG INTERSTATE 40              
NEAR KTCC. ADVISORY TO THE SOUTH WILL ALSO STAY INTACT MAINLY FOR               
THE BLOWING SNOW HAZARD APPROACHING FROM THE NORTH. EXPECT CLEARING             
IN THE EAST AFTER 18Z AS INDICATED BY RUC13 SO DAY SHIFT MAY                    
CONSIDER DROPPING ADVISORY IN THE SE AT THAT TIME. THINK WARNINGS               
WILL CONTINUE UNTIL 600 PM IN THE NE DUE TO EXTREMELY HAZARDOUS                 
TRAVEL CONDITIONS.                                                              
VERY COLD NIGHT EXPECTED ACROSS THE CWA...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS WITH              
SNOWPACK. SUNDAY WILL BE VERY NICE EARLY IN THE DAY WITH INCREASING             
CLOUDS OVER THE NORTH. NEXT SYSTEM WILL MOVE QUICKLY SE ACROSS THE              
SANGRES AND NE PLAINS SUNDAY NIGHT WITH ADVISORY LEVEL SNOWS POSSIBLE           
OVER THE SANGRES SIMPLY DUE TO VERY HIGH SNOW RATIOS. COLD WEATHER              
CONTINUES MONDAY ACROSS THE REGION DESPITE MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. 00Z              
MODELS ARE BEGINNING TO CHANGE THEIR TUNE ON WEATHER PATTERN FOR                
CHRISTMAS INTO THE NEW YEAR WITH SYSTEMS PASSING FARTHER TO THE NORTH           
THAN PREVIOUS RUNS. THIS STILL MEANS POSSIBLE SIGNIFICANT WINTER                
STORMS FOR THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS AND NE PLAINS HOWEVER THE SOUTH               
AND WEST MAY ESCAPE WITH GLANCING BLOWS. TWEAKED EXTENDED GRIDS TO              
ADJUST POPS SLIGHTLY FARTHER NE HOWEVER WILL WAIT FOR A MORE                    
CONSISTENT TREND TO APPEAR.                                                     
GUYER                                                                           
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
OCCASIONAL IFR CONDITIONS IN SNOW...BLOWING SNOW AND FREEZING FOG TO            
PERSIST FROM KSAF NORTHEAST AND EASTWARD TO THE TEXAS AND COLORADO              
BORDER THROUGH MIDDAY. LOCAL MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION ALONG AND WEST OF             
THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY EXPECTED THROUGH MIDDAY ALSO. NORTHWEST                   
SURFACE WIND TO INCREASE AT KFMN...WITH NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS                
GUSTING TO AROUND 35 OR 40 KTS ALONG AND EAST OF CENTRAL MOUNTAIN               
CHAIN. WINDS SHOULD TAPER OFF LATE AFTERNOON.                                   
NEXT AVIATION DISCUSSION SCHEDULED FOR 22Z.                                     
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
FARMINGTON......................  35  14  38  16 /   0   0   5   5              
GALLUP..........................  35   6  40   6 /   0   0   0   0              
GRANTS..........................  35   7  41   9 /   5   0   0   0              
GLENWOOD........................  44  21  52  23 /   0   0   0   0              
CHAMA...........................  29  -4  32  -6 /   5   0  10  20              
LOS ALAMOS......................  34   8  37   5 /  10   0   5   5              
RED RIVER.......................  20   2  31   5 /  20   0  10  40              
TAOS............................  33   4  38   6 /  20   0   5  20              
SANTA FE........................  32  11  36   8 /  20   0   5   5              
SANTA FE AIRPORT................  36  12  39  16 /  20   0   5   5              
ESPANOLA........................  40  10  42  17 /  20   0   5   5              
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS.............  42  20  43  24 /  10   0   0   0              
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY..............  44  16  45  20 /  10   0   0   0              
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS...........  42  16  41  20 /  20   0   0   0              
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA...........  43  18  44  23 /  10   0   0   0              
SOCORRO.........................  45  19  48  24 /   5   0   0   0              
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST.........  37  12  38  14 /  20   0   5   0              
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA...............  37  17  40  19 /  30   0   0   0              
CARRIZOZO.......................  39  20  42  21 /  20   0   0   0              
RUIDOSO.........................  32  17  40  17 /  20   0   0   0              
RATON...........................  32   8  40  11 /  30   0   5  20              
LAS VEGAS.......................  31  14  38  13 /  50   0   5  20              
ROY.............................  35  16  37  15 /  60   0   5  20              
CLAYTON.........................  33  14  40  18 /  60   0   0  20              
SANTA ROSA......................  42  16  43  20 /  60   0   0   5              
TUCUMCARI.......................  38  13  42  18 /  60   0   0  20              
FORT SUMNER.....................  43  19  50  20 /  60   0   0   0              
CLOVIS..........................  37  19  48  21 /  70   0   0   0              
PORTALES........................  39  19  48  20 /  70   0   0   0              
ROSWELL.........................  48  22  52  25 /  30   0   0   0              
&&                                                                              
.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM MST THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE                      
FOLLOWING ZONES...NMZ002>007-010>013.                                           
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM MST THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE                   
FOLLOWING ZONES...NMZ016>021-026.                                               
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
GUYER/99                                                                        
</pre> nm                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX                                      
627 AM CST SAT DEC 22 2007                                                      
.UPDATE...                                                                      
WENT AHEAD AND ISSUED A WIND ADVISORY FOR THE EASTERN PERMIAN                   
BASIN. LATEST RUC SHOWING WINDS 5 TO 10 KTS HIGHER THAN EITHER THE              
GFS AND NAM ARE SHOWING. SURFACE OBSERVATIIONS TO THE NORTH ARE                 
SHOWING MINIMAL ADVISORY CONDITIONS A THE MOMENT...HOWEVER STRONG               
DOWNWARD FORCING IN THE WAKE OF THE UPPER LOW AND CLEAR SKIES WILL              
ALLOW FOR MAXIMUM POTENTIAL OF ELEVATED STRONG WINDS TO MIX TO THE              
SURFACE. THIS IS A TOUGH CALL WITH THE ADVISORY POSSIBLY NEEDING                
TO BE EXPANDED SOUTH AND WEST...BUT WANTED TO START OUT                         
HIGHLIGHTING THE AREA WITH THE HIGHEST POTENTIAL FIRST AND WILL                 
LET THE NEXT SHIFT MAKE THE DECISION TO FINE TUNE FURTHER.                      
HENNIG                                                                          
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 518 AM CST SAT DEC 22 2007/                         
AVIATION...                                                                     
WINDS WILL BE THE BIGGEST PROBLEM TODAY ACROSS AREA TAFS...                     
ALTHOUGH A FEW LOWER CLOUDS COULD ALSO MATERIALIZE ACROSS EASTERN               
TAF SITES LATER THIS MORNING. EXPECT WINDS TO SWITCH AROUND TO THE              
NORTH NEAR OR SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE AS THE COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO              
PUSH SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA. WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT HAVE BEEN 20KT              
WITH GUSTS TO GREATER THAN 30KT AT TIMES. THINK WINDS ACROSS THE                
AREA COULD FOLLOW THIS TREND THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WHEN WINDS                   
SHOULD BEGIN DYING DOWN. EXPECT NEAR CALM WINDS OVERNIGHT.                      
LOW CLOUDS WILL HAVE A CHANCE TO FORM ALONG AND NEAR THE FRONT                  
LATER THIS MORNING. WILL LIKELY ONLY BRIEFLY TOUCH MVFR CONDITIONS              
BEFORE QUICKLY GOING BACK TO VFR CONDITIONS AGAIN. THEN VFR                     
CONDITIONS WILL BE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT               
HOURS TONIGHT. /13/                                                             
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 329 AM CST SAT DEC 22 2007/                          
DISCUSSION...                                                                   
COLD FRONT HAS MOVED THROUGH THE TEXAS PANHANDLE AND WILL BE INTO               
THE NORTHERN PERMIAN BASIN NOT LONG AFTER SUNRISE. WINDS WILL                   
SHIFT AROUND TO THE NORTH BEHIND THE FRONT AND BECOME BREEZY TO                 
WINDY AS STRONG CAA DOMINATES IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING UPPER                
LEVEL LOW. WINDS ARE CURRENTLY GUSTING IN EXCESS OF 40 KTS BEHIND               
THE FRONT AND A WIND ADVISORY MAY NOT BE OUT OF THE QUESTION FOR                
TODAY BUT A WEAKER PRESSURE GRADIENT IN THE PB SHOULD PRECLUDE                  
ISSUANCE. WENT AHEAD AND LEFT POPS IN THE EXTREME NORTHERN                      
COUNTIES...BUT GIVEN THE PRONOUNCED DRY SLOT OVER THE CWA ON WV                 
IMAGERY...RAIN OR SNOW CHANCES SEEM PRETTY DISMAL.                              
ELSEWHERE IN THE SHORT TERM STRONG WINDS IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS               
ARE BEGINNING TO SUBSIDE AND THE HIGH WIND WARNING WILL MOST                    
LIKELY BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE...THOUGH WINDS IN THE DAVIS MOUNTAINS               
ARE STILL PRETTY HIGH AND WILL NEED TO BE CLOSELY WATCHED.                      
THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PACKAGE WILL BE A SERIES OF REPEAT                
PERFORMANCES AS ZONAL FLOW SENDS SEVERAL UPPER LEVEL LOWS ACROSS                
THE CENTRAL PLAINS WHICH IN TURN WILL GIVE US MULTIPLE COLD                     
FRONTAL PASSAGES. THIS FORECAST PACKAGE STAYED CLOSE TO THE GFS.                
THE 21/12Z ECMWF SEEMED TOO SLOW AND DEEP WITH THE UPPER                        
PATTERN...ESPECIALLY WITH REGARDS THE LOW SEEN APPROACHING AROUND               
CHRISTMAS. WE SHOULD SEE SEVERAL SHOTS OF COOL AIR BUT WE ARE NOT               
GOING TO BE ABLE TO TAP INTO ANY ARCTIC AIR SO THE TEMPS WILL BE                
QUICK TO REBOUND. CHRISTMAS PROMISES TO BE A NICE DAY WITH DRY                  
WEATHER AND NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.                                  
HENNIG                                                                          
&&                                                                              
.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
NM...HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 5 AM TO 9 AM MST THIS MORNING FOR THE               
     FOLLOWING ZONES...GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS OF EDDY COUNTY.                      
TX...WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON           
     FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...BORDEN...DAWSON...GLASSCOCK...                   
     HOWARD...MARTIN...MIDLAND...MITCHELL...REAGAN...SCURRY...                  
     UPTON.                                                                     
     HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 6 AM CST /5 AM MST/ TO 10 AM CST /9 AM              
     MST/ THIS MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...DAVIS/APACHE                   
     MOUNTAINS AREA...GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS.                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
10                                                                              
</pre> tx                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX                                            
552 AM CST SAT DEC 22 2007                                                      
.AVIATION...                                                                    
WINTRY WEATHER WILL MAINTAIN IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS DURING THE MORNING             
HOURS AS THE TRAILING EDGE OF THE EXITING LOW PRESSURE                          
SYSTEM PRODUCING SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW. THOUGH THE SNOW SHOULD END BY           
MIDDAY OVER KAMA...KDHT AND KGUY...STRONG WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO              
THE AFTERNOON. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD RETURN BY LATE AFTERNOON.                  
NUNEZ                                                                           
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 442 AM CST SAT DEC 22 2007/                         
DISCUSSION...                                                                   
MAIN FORECAST CONCERN DEALS WITH THE SHORT TERM DETAILS WHICH                   
INCLUDES PRECIP TIMING AND WINDS.                                               
CURRENT WV IMAGERY WITH RUC UPPER AIR ANALYSIS OVERLAY SHOW A                   
VIGOROUS UPPER TROUGH OVER NEW MEXICO. A 120 KT JET WAS PUNCHING                
INTO THE BASE OF THE TROUGH...WHICH WILL ACT TO ACCELERATE IT                   
NORTHEAST TO THE GREAT LAKES BY SUN. CURRENT RADAR SHOWS AN AREA OF             
MIXED PRECIPITATION SPREADING INTO PORTIONS OF THE PANHANDLES. WITH             
SFC TEMPS HOVERING NEAR OR BELOW FREEZING...EXPECT A CHANGE OVER TO             
ALL SNOW SOON.                                                                  
FOR TODAY...THE UPPER TROUGH WILL QUICKLY MOVE ACROSS THE TEXAS                 
PANHANDLE. STRONG UPPER DYNAMICS WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE PANHANDLES              
THIS MORNING...SO EXPECT THE HEAVIEST SNOWFALL TO OCCUR THEN.                   
ONE CAVEAT TO THIS IS THAT SFC WINDS DO NOT HAVE MUCH OF AN UPSLOPE             
COMPONENT WHICH WOULD LIMIT THE AMOUNT OF LLVL MOISTURE.                        
IRREGARDLESS...FCST SOUNDINGS INDICATE FAIRLY SATURATED PROFILES                
WITH TEMPS BELOW FREEZING THROUGHOUT THE COLUMN SO PRECIP THIS                  
MORNING SHOULD BE ALL SNOW. SINCE THIS IS A PROGRESSIVE SYSTEM...               
SNOW WILL END FROM WEST TO EAST AND ADJUSTED POPS TO END THE TIMING             
OF THE SNOW SOONER ACROSS THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. STILL                
EXPECT THE GREATEST ACCUMULATIONS IN THE OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE WHERE               
CLOSE TO 4 INCHES IS POSSIBLE. GIVEN THIS...CONTINUED THE SNOW AND              
BLOWING SNOW ADVISORY WHICH EXPIRES THIS EVENING. IN ADDITION TO                
PRECIP...STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE TODAY BEFORE                      
DIMINISHING TONIGHT. CURRENT OBS ALREADY SHOW SPEEDS IN EXCESS OF 30            
KTS IN THE FAR NORTHWEST PORTION OF THE PANHANDLES AND THE TUCUMCARI            
PROFILER SHOWS WINDS OF 35 KTS AROUND 900 MB. WITH STRONG CAA AND               
PRESSURE RISES ON THE ORDER OF 5 MB...SEE NO REASON WHY THE CWA WILL            
NOT SEE ADVISORY CRITERIA WINDS SO HOISTED A WIND ADVISORY FOR THE              
ENTIRE CWA THROUGH 6 PM THIS EVENING. SKIES WILL RAPIDLY CLEAR                  
TONIGHT AND WITH DIMINISHING WINDS AND AN ANTICIPATED FRESH SNOW                
PACK...WENT SLIGHTLY UNDER MOS GUIDANCE FOR TEMPS TONIGHT...WITH LOWS           
MAINLY IN THE TEENS.                                                            
MODELS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE A PROGRESSIVE WEATHER PATTERN AS SEVERAL           
UPPER TROUGHS MOVE ACROSS THE PLAINS. THE FIRST WILL DROP SOUTHEAST             
OUT OF THE INTER MOUNTAIN WEST AND MOVE ACROSS THE CWA SUN NIGHT AND            
MON. DID INCREASE POPS A BIT BUT STILL KEPT THEM SILENT AS ASCENT               
INCREASES AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH ALTHOUGH MID AND                
UPPER MOISTURE REMAINS LIMITED.                                                 
ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH IS PROGGED TO DROP SOUTHEAST ON CHRISTMAS DAY              
AND CROSS THE PANHANDLES THAT NIGHT. THIS SYSTEM LOOKS TO TAP INTO              
MORE MOISTURE SO MAINTAINED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS. DID PUSH BACK                   
THE TIMING OF PRECIP TO THAT EVENING AS SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT AND                 
MOISTURE LOOKS TO BE MAXIMIZED THEN.                                            
FINAL TROUGH WILL ALSO DROP SOUTHEAST AND MOVE ACROSS THE CENTRAL               
PLAINS THU. THE OPERATIONAL GFS IS MORE PROGRESSIVE THAN ENSEMBLES              
SO KEPT THE DRY FCST INTACT. AS FOR TEMPS...GENERALLY FOLLOWED                  
MEXMOS GUIDANCE WITH TEMPS GENERALLY RUNNING BELOW AVERAGE.                     
CLK                                                                             
&&                                                                              
.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
TX...SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR           
     THE FOLLOWING ZONES: ARMSTRONG...CARSON...COLLINGSWORTH...                 
     DALLAM...DEAF SMITH...DONLEY...GRAY...HANSFORD...HARTLEY...                
     HEMPHILL...HUTCHINSON...LIPSCOMB...MOORE...OCHILTREE...                    
     OLDHAM...POTTER...RANDALL...ROBERTS...SHERMAN...WHEELER.                   
     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE FOLLOWING              
     ZONES: ARMSTRONG...CARSON...COLLINGSWORTH...DALLAM...DEAF                  
     SMITH...DONLEY...GRAY...HANSFORD...HARTLEY...HEMPHILL...                   
     HUTCHINSON...LIPSCOMB...MOORE...OCHILTREE...OLDHAM...                      
     POTTER...RANDALL...ROBERTS...SHERMAN...WHEELER.                            
OK...SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR           
     THE FOLLOWING ZONES: BEAVER...CIMARRON...TEXAS.                            
     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE FOLLOWING              
     ZONES: BEAVER...CIMARRON...TEXAS.                                          
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
08/05                                                                           
</pre> tx                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX                                            
442 AM CST SAT DEC 22 2007                                                      
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
MAIN FORECAST CONCERN DEALS WITH THE SHORT TERM DETAILS WHICH                   
INCLUDES PRECIP TIMING AND WINDS.                                               
CURRENT WV IMAGERY WITH RUC UPPER AIR ANALYSIS OVERLAY SHOW A                   
VIGOROUS UPPER TROUGH OVER NEW MEXICO. A 120 KT JET WAS PUNCHING                
INTO THE BASE OF THE TROUGH...WHICH WILL ACT TO ACCELERATE IT                   
NORTHEAST TO THE GREAT LAKES BY SUN. CURRENT RADAR SHOWS AN AREA OF             
MIXED PRECIPITATION SPREADING INTO PORTIONS OF THE PANHANDLES. WITH             
SFC TEMPS HOVERING NEAR OR BELOW FREEZING...EXPECT A CHANGE OVER TO             
ALL SNOW SOON.                                                                  
FOR TODAY...THE UPPER TROUGH WILL QUICKLY MOVE ACROSS THE TEXAS                 
PANHANDLE. STRONG UPPER DYNAMICS WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE PANHANDLES              
THIS MORNING...SO EXPECT THE HEAVIEST SNOWFALL TO OCCUR THEN.                   
ONE CAVEAT TO THIS IS THAT SFC WINDS DO NOT HAVE MUCH OF AN UPSLOPE             
COMPONENT WHICH WOULD LIMIT THE AMOUNT OF LLVL MOISTURE.                        
IRREGARDLESS...FCST SOUNDINGS INDICATE FAIRLY SATURATED PROFILES                
WITH TEMPS BELOW FREEZING THROUGHOUT THE COLUMN SO PRECIP THIS                  
MORNING SHOULD BE ALL SNOW. SINCE THIS IS A PROGRESSIVE SYSTEM...               
SNOW WILL END FROM WEST TO EAST AND ADJUSTED POPS TO END THE TIMING             
OF THE SNOW SOONER ACROSS THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. STILL                
EXPECT THE GREATEST ACCUMULATIONS IN THE OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE WHERE               
CLOSE TO 4 INCHES IS POSSIBLE. GIVEN THIS...CONTINUED THE SNOW AND              
BLOWING SNOW ADVISORY WHICH EXPIRES THIS EVENING. IN ADDITION TO                
PRECIP...STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE TODAY BEFORE                      
DIMINISHING TONIGHT. CURRENT OBS ALREADY SHOW SPEEDS IN EXCESS OF 30            
KTS IN THE FAR NORTHWEST PORTION OF THE PANHANDLES AND THE TUCUMCARI            
PROFILER SHOWS WINDS OF 35 KTS AROUND 900 MB. WITH STRONG CAA AND               
PRESSURE RISES ON THE ORDER OF 5 MB...SEE NO REASON WHY THE CWA WILL            
NOT SEE ADVISORY CRITERIA WINDS SO HOISTED A WIND ADVISORY FOR THE              
ENTIRE CWA THROUGH 6 PM THIS EVENING. SKIES WILL RAPIDLY CLEAR                  
TONIGHT AND WITH DIMINISHING WINDS AND AN ANTICIPATED FRESH SNOW                
PACK...WENT SLIGHTLY UNDER MOS GUIDANCE FOR TEMPS TONIGHT...WITH LOWS           
MAINLY IN THE TEENS.                                                            
MODELS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE A PROGRESSIVE WEATHER PATTERN AS SEVERAL           
UPPER TROUGHS MOVE ACROSS THE PLAINS. THE FIRST WILL DROP SOUTHEAST             
OUT OF THE INTER MOUNTAIN WEST AND MOVE ACROSS THE CWA SUN NIGHT AND            
MON. DID INCREASE POPS A BIT BUT STILL KEPT THEM SILENT AS ASCENT               
INCREASES AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH ALTHOUGH MID AND                
UPPER MOISTURE REMAINS LIMITED.                                                 
ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH IS PROGGED TO DROP SOUTHEAST ON CHRISTMAS DAY              
AND CROSS THE PANHANDLES THAT NIGHT. THIS SYSTEM LOOKS TO TAP INTO              
MORE MOISTURE SO MAINTAINED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS. DID PUSH BACK                   
THE TIMING OF PRECIP TO THAT EVENING AS SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT AND                 
MOISTURE LOOKS TO BE MAXIMIZED THEN.                                            
FINAL TROUGH WILL ALSO DROP SOUTHEAST AND MOVE ACROSS THE CENTRAL               
PLAINS THU. THE OPERATIONAL GFS IS MORE PROGRESSIVE THAN ENSEMBLES              
SO KEPT THE DRY FCST INTACT. AS FOR TEMPS...GENERALLY FOLLOWED                  
MEXMOS GUIDANCE WITH TEMPS GENERALLY RUNNING BELOW AVERAGE.                     
CLK                                                                             
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
AMARILLO TX                34  18  42  21  42 /  70   0   0  10   5             
BEAVER OK                  29  13  40  19  37 /  90   0   0  10  10             
BOISE CITY OK              32  12  40  18  41 /  70   0   0  10  10             
BORGER TX                  32  18  43  22  42 /  80   0   0  10  10             
BOYS RANCH TX              33  15  43  20  42 /  60   0   0  10   5             
CANYON TX                  34  16  43  20  43 /  60   0   0  10   5             
CLARENDON TX               34  20  45  24  44 /  70   0   0  10   5             
DALHART TX                 33  13  42  19  42 /  60   0   0  10   5             
GUYMON OK                  31  14  41  18  41 /  90   0   0  10  10             
HEREFORD TX                35  15  46  20  42 /  60   0   0  10   5             
LIPSCOMB TX                29  15  41  19  41 /  90   0   0  10  10             
PAMPA TX                   30  19  43  23  42 /  80   0   0  10  10             
SHAMROCK TX                33  21  45  23  43 /  80   0   0   5  10             
WELLINGTON TX              34  21  45  24  43 /  70   0   0   5   5             
&&                                                                              
.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
TX...SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR           
     THE FOLLOWING ZONES: ARMSTRONG...CARSON...COLLINGSWORTH...                 
     DALLAM...DEAF SMITH...DONLEY...GRAY...HANSFORD...HARTLEY...                
     HEMPHILL...HUTCHINSON...LIPSCOMB...MOORE...OCHILTREE...                    
     OLDHAM...POTTER...RANDALL...ROBERTS...SHERMAN...WHEELER.                   
     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE FOLLOWING              
     ZONES: ARMSTRONG...CARSON...COLLINGSWORTH...DALLAM...DEAF                  
     SMITH...DONLEY...GRAY...HANSFORD...HARTLEY...HEMPHILL...                   
     HUTCHINSON...LIPSCOMB...MOORE...OCHILTREE...OLDHAM...                      
     POTTER...RANDALL...ROBERTS...SHERMAN...WHEELER.                            
OK...SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR           
     THE FOLLOWING ZONES: BEAVER...CIMARRON...TEXAS.                            
     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE FOLLOWING              
     ZONES: BEAVER...CIMARRON...TEXAS.                                          
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
05/08                                                                           
</pre> tx                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO                                              
226 PM MST SAT DEC 22 2007                                                      
.SHORT TERM...                                                                  
(TONIGHT AND SUNDAY)                                                            
...MUCH QUIETER...BUT COLD...NIGHT FOR SOUTHERN CO TONIGHT...                   
CURRENTLY...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC MODEL UPPER AIR ANALYSES                
SHOWED THE QUICK MOVING WEATHER SYSTEM THAT STRUCK CO YESTERDAY WAS             
IN THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS. BRILLIANT SUNSHINE WAS ACROSS               
MUCH OF SOUTHERN CO THIS AFTERNOON. BRISK WINDS CONTINUE ACROSS THE             
FAR SOUTHEASTERN CO PLAINS...BUT WILL LIKELY DIMINISH SHORTLY AS THE            
WEATHER SYSTEM CONTINUES TO PULL AWAY. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY                
BEAUTIFULLY SHOWED THE AREAS OF SNOW AND NO SNOW. AS ANTICIPATED...             
SOUTHERN EL PASO...NORTHERN PUEBLO...AND CROWLEY COUNTIES DID NOT               
GET MUCH...IF AT ALL...ACCUMULATING SNOW THANKS TO THE INTENSE                  
DOWNSLOPE(DRYING) FLOW OFF THE SOUTHERN PALMER DIVIDE LAST NIGHT.               
TERRAIN RULES.  DESPITE FULL SUNSHINE...TEMPERATURES HAVE STRUGGLED             
TO CLIMB IN THE LOWER AR RIVER VALLEY GIVEN A LOW SUN ANGLE AND                 
RELATIVELY LIGHT WIND. MUCH OF THE SAN LUIS VALLEY RECEIVED 1-6                 
INCHES...WIDESPREAD 4-6 INCHES ACROSS CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PART OF THE              
VALLEY AND NO SURPRISE TEMPERATURES ARE STRUGGLING TO REACH 20F. MOS            
GUIDANCE HAS NO CLUE.                                                           
TONIGHT...MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL NORTH FLOW BACKS TO WEST-NORTHWEST              
FLOW. ALWAYS GET A LITTLE CONCERNED ABOUT MOUNTAIN WAVE DEVELOPMENTS            
DURING THIS WEATHER PATTERN TRANSITION PHASE...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE             
EAST-SOUTHEAST SLOPE OF PIKES PEAK AND THE EAST SLOPES OF THE                   
RAMPART RANGE. WIND AND THERMAL STRUCTURE IN NAM12 CROSS-SECTIONS               
NOT SHOWING THE STRONGEST MOUNTAIN WAVE PATTERN. MIGHT JUST BE A                
TRAPPED MOUNTAIN WAVE EVENT...HOWEVER...COULD NOT RULE OUT SOME WIND            
GUSTS OF 30-40 MPH ALONG THE EASTERN PIKES PEAK AND RAMPART RANGE               
SLOPES...ESPECIALLY AROUND THE AIR FORCE ACADEMY AREA LATE                      
TONIGHT/EARLY SUN MORNING. HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE MOVING OUT OF THE                
PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL LIKELY LEND ITSELF TO MOUNTAIN WAVE CLOUD                
DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE CO FRONT RANGE LATE TONIGHT AND SUN MORNING.              
DRAMATIC TEMPERATURES GRADIENTS WILL LIKELY EXIST ACROSS SOUTHERN               
CO. AREAS OF SNOW COVER ACROSS THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS WILL BE IN THE              
SINGLE DIGITS OR SLIGHTLY BELOW ZERO. THE SAN LUIS VALLEY WITH ITS              
FRESH SNOW COVER WILL PROBABLY SEE 10 BELOW TO 20 BELOW ZERO                    
TEMPERATURES LATE TONIGHT/EARLY SUN MORNING. WENT A FEW CATEGORIES              
BELOW MOS AND THAT MIGHT NOT BE ENOUGH. THE ONLY THING THAT COULD               
KEEP TEMPERATURES UP WOULD BE HIGH CLOUDS AND/OR THE WIND PICKING               
UP. MEANWHILE...THE EASTERN SLOPE OF OUR EASTERN CO MOUNTAINS IN THE            
THERMAL (BANANA-BELT) WILL SEE TEMPERATURES HOLD STEADY OR SLOWLY               
RISE TONIGHT AS WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW CHINOOK PATTERN DEVELOPS.                   
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE SNOWPACK SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 50 WILL BE                    
PROBLEMATIC...ESPECIALLY WITH RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS AND SURFACE DEW            
POINTS ALREADY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS. THE LOW LEVEL COLD AIR OFF THE             
SNOWPACK MIGHT ACTUALLY DRAIN INTO THE LOWER AR RIVER VALLEY...                 
DOWNSLOPE...TOWARDS PUEBLO-LA JUNTA-LAMAR LATE TONIGHT. HOWEVER...              
ANY MOUNTAIN WAVE CLOUD DEVELOPMENT COULD TEMPER NOCTURNAL COOLING              
IN THE LOWER AR RIVER VALLEY. MIGHT SEE SOME PATCHY FREEZING                    
FOG...DENSE AT TIMES...IN THE SAN LUIS VALLEY CENTER FLOOR                      
CONSIDERING IT HAPPENED EARLY THIS MORNING. BUFKIT ALS MODEL                    
SOUNDING ANALYSIS SUGGEST IT...TOO.                                             
SUNDAY...NEXT WEAK WEATHER FEATURES IS STILL PROJECTED TO MOVE                  
THROUGH THE CENTRAL ROCKIES...MAINLY SUN AFTERNOON. NOT A LOT OF                
MOISTURE AND LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM. THE NAM DOES NOT                 
GENERATE MUCH IN THE WAY OF QPF...AND THE GFS HAS A LITTLE MORE.                
PLAN TO STICK WITH THE CURRENT POP/WX FORECAST EAST OF THE                      
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE AND TRENDED TOWARDS GJT/BOU FORECASTS AROUND THE             
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE A GREAT CHALLENGE                 
GIVEN RELATIVELY LIGHT SURFACE-PBL WIND...LOW SUN ANGLE...RELATIVELY            
FRESH SNOW COVER FOR SOME AREA...AND ANY MOUNTAIN WAVE CLOUDS. THE              
SAN LUIS VALLEY AND LOWER AR RIVER VALLEYS WILL BE THE LAST TO WARM             
GIVEN THE AFOREMENTIONED CONDITIONS. HAVE ADJUSTED THE DIGITAL                  
DATABASE AS SUCH. AGAIN...WENT A COUPLE OF CATEGORIES BELOW MOS FOR             
ALS IN THE SAN LUIS VALLEY CENTER FLOOR. MET MOS HAS 36F AND DOUBT              
THAT UNLESS THE WIND PICKS UP. METZE                                            
.LONG TERM...                                                                   
(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)                                                 
...ACTIVE PATTERN TO CONTINUE DURING THE LONG TERM...                           
METEOROLOGICAL CHALLENGE IS IMPACT THAT SERIES OF SYSTEMS WILL HAVE             
ON CWFA DURING THE LONG TERM. INITIAL SYSTEM(#1) IS EXPECTED TO                 
GENERATE LIGHT SNOW(BASICALLY AN ADDITIONAL 2 INCHES OR LESS OF SNOW            
FROM SUNSET SUNDAY TO SUNRISE MONDAY) OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS             
WITH UPPER RIDGING THEN LEADING TO DRY CONDITIONS ON MONDAY.                    
BY CHRISTMAS EVE...UPPER LOW DEVELOPS OVER NORTHERN UTAH AND IS                 
PROJECTED TO BECOME CENTERED OVER SOUTHEASTERN UTAH BY 12Z                      
CHRISTMAS MORNING AND THEN PUSHES INTO THE TEXAS PANHANDLE REGION               
BY SUNSET CHRISTMAS.                                                            
THIS SYSTEM(#2) IS EXPECTED TO GENERATE WESTERN AND CENTRAL MOUNTAIN            
SNOW MONDAY EVENING WITH SNOW THEN DEVELOPING OVER THE REMAINDER                
OF THE CWFA MONDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUING INTO CHRISTMAS. AT THIS                 
TIME...POTENTIAL SNOW AMOUNTS APPEAR TO BE ON THE LIGHTER                       
SIDE...GENERALLY 4 INCHES OR LESS OVER THE MAJORITY OF THE CWFA(WITH            
POSSIBLY SEVERAL MORE INCHES OVER SECTIONS OF ZONE 68) AND WILL                 
DEPICT THIS IN IMPENDING GRIDS/ZONES. WFO PUEBLO WILL CONTINUE TO               
MONITOR THIS SYSTEM AS WELL AS THE OTHER SYSTEMS FOR FUTURE TRACK               
AND INTENSITY CHANGES.                                                          
FROM TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...DRY CONDITIONS SHOULD RETURN TO             
REGION AS ZONAL UPPER FLOW DOMINATES. NEXT UPPER SYSTEM(#3) IS THEN             
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER NORTHEAST WYOMING BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND               
THEN PUSH INTO SOUTH DAKOTA ON THURSDAY. THIS DISTURBANCE SHOULD                
GENERATE ANOTHER ROUND OF SNOW SHOWERS OVER SECTIONS OF THE                     
CWFA...ESPECIALLY THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS...FROM WEDNESDAY EVENING                
INTO THURSDAY.                                                                  
ANOTHER BRIEF BREAK FROM THE PRECIPITATION THREAT IS EXPECTED TO                
BE NOTED FROM THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING BEFORE SYSTEM(#4)              
DEVELOPS OVER SOUTHERN NEVADA BY 18Z FRIDAY AND THEN MOVES ACROSS               
NEW MEXICO ON SATURDAY. THIS WAVE IS EXPECTED TO GENERATE INCREASING            
POPS FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY.                                       
OVERALL TEMPERATURES SHOULD CONTINUE TO RUN BELOW CLIMATOLOGICAL                
AVERAGES DURING THE LONG TERM WITH THE MILDEST TEMPERATURES                     
EXPECTED ON MONDAY(CHRISTMAS EVE).                                              
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
PER SHORT TERM DISCUSSION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE COS            
AND PUB AIRPORTS.  ALS WILL LIKELY SEE 1-3 BR IFR CIGS DEVELOP AFT              
05Z/23 WITH TEMPORALLY CHANGES TO 1/4SM FZFG AND LIFR CIGS BETWEEN              
11Z-15Z/23. METZE                                                               
&&                                                                              
.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
NONE.                                                                           
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</pre> co                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA                                          
1155 AM CST SAT DEC 22 2007                                                     
.SHORT TERM...                                                                  
STORM BEGINNING TO TAKE SHAPE TO THE SOUTH OVER KANSAS AND MISSOURI             
WITH PRECIPITATION RAPIDLY SPREADING NORTHEAST. AT THE SAME                     
TIME...DRIER AIR HAS WORKED INTO NORTHWEST IOWA AND THE COMBINATION             
WILL PROVIDE A SHARP CUTOFF TO THE SNOW LINE. DID CANCEL A PORTION              
OF THE SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW ADVISORY OVER THE NORTHWEST WHERE                  
SNOWFALL SHOULD BE LIMITED. STILL APPEARS MUCH OF THE WARNING HAS A             
STRONG CHANCE FOR 4 INCHES PLUS WITH A FEW AREAS POSSIBLY TOPPING 8             
INCHES. SOME QUESTION DOES STILL REMAIN OVER A FEW COUNTIES ON THE              
NORTHWEST EDGE BUT AT THIS TIME NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO DROP THEM               
YET. STRONG FORCING WITHIN THE DENDRITIC LAYER THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD            
PROVIDE A PERIOD OF ONE TO TWO INCH PER HOUR RATES ESPECIALLY GIVEN             
THE CONVECTIVE NATURE OF THE ACTIVITY THAT WILL ARRIVE OVER THE                 
SOUTH CENTRAL SOON. ONE THIS BAND HITS...COGNITIONS WILL QUICKLY                
DETERIORATE.                                                                    
&&                                                                              
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
OBVIOUS PRIMARY CONCERN WILL BE IMPACT OF WEEKEND STORM...BUT WILL              
HAVE TO DEAL WITH DENSE FOG ADVY FIRST.  WITH INCREASING NWLY WINDS             
ALREADY TO ICL-CIN-EST LINE WITH CFP HAVE SHIFTED ADVY EWD AND IS               
NOW IN EFFECT E OF THESE AREAS TIL 15Z AND BASICALLY I35 CORRIDOR               
EWD TIL 18Z.  TEMPS SHOULD BE FALLING SO FORECAST HIGHS ARE VERY                
CLOSE TO CURRENT READINGS.                                                      
REGARDING THE WINTER STORM...NAM SEEMED TO INITIALIZE JUST A TAD BIT            
BETTER AT 00Z WITH SLIGHTLY DEEPER FEATURES THROUGH DEPTH OF                    
ATMOSPHERE.  HOWEVER WILL BE FAVORING GFS AS WELL AS 00Z SPC WRF AND            
THEIR MORE WLY QPF SOLUTION.  CONFIDENCE NOT THE GREATEST WITH 00Z              
ECMWF AND 06Z NAM STILL GOING FARTHER E.  HOWEVER GFS...ALONG WITH              
06Z RUC...SEEM TO HAVE BETTER HANDLE ON CURRENT WX AFTER 06Z AND                
EXTRAPOLATION OF DEVELOPING DEF ZN INTO IA..  THIS WOULD SUGGEST                
THAT FARTHER W SOLUTION THE WAY TO GO WITH HEAVIER SNOWS BACK INTO              
DSM METRO AND POINTS S AND E.  MODEL BIASES OFTEN PLACE HEAVIER                 
ACCUMS TOO FAR SE...WITH THE NAM OFTEN SEEMING TO BE SHADING HIGHER             
QPF AMOUNTS TOO CLOSE TO CONVECTION AND NOT EMPHASIZING DEF ZN                  
ADEQUATELY.                                                                     
MUCH LIKE YESTERDAY...FORCING IN DENDRITIC LAYER SEEMS TO BE IN                 
H5/H6 LAYER OR AROUND 300/305K ISENT SFCS.  UVM IN THESE AREAS OF               
CONCERN SPREAD NEWD INTO IA BY 18Z BUILDING ON SE-NE ORIENTED BAND              
ALREADY DEVELOPING ON RADAR.  ALTHOUGH SOME THETA-E ADVECTION AND               
FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING IS NOTED...BRUNT OF UVM SEEMS TO BE DRIVEN              
BY DPVA AS SHRT WV LIFTS OUT.  THIS STILL RESULTS IN STRONG OVERALL             
QG FORCING INTO THE AFTN BEFORE REACHING FAR ERN PORTIONS THIS EVE.             
SERN FRINGE OF THIS AREA WILL SEE THETA-E LAPSE RATES AND EPV GOING             
NEGATIVE SO EXPECT STATIC STABILITY WILL BE QUITE LOW.  LIGHTNING               
HAS ALREADY BEEN OBSERVED NEAR LOW CORE AND WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED              
TO BRIEFLY SEE SOME CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS BEFORE STABILITY MIN MOVES              
INTO IL THIS EVE.  CURRENT SNOW TOTALS VARY FROM 4-7 INCHES IN THE              
WARNING...BUT COULD SEE ISOLD HIGHER AMOUNTS IF CONVECTION PANS OUT.            
THIS CONVECTION AND POTENTIAL LATENT HEAT RELEASE MAY BE ANOTHER                
REASON TO FAVOR MORE NWLY GFS SOLUTION WITH LOWER PRESSURES INTO                
COLDER AIR.  ALSO JUST NOTICED 06Z NAM HAS STRONG DENDRITIC FORCING             
BACK INTO ALO-OTM CORRIDOR THROUGH 06Z BUT QPF NOT FAR ENOUGH                   
WWD TO REFLECT THAT.  ANOTHER REASON TO FAVOR 00Z GFS.                          
HAVE SWITCHED PREVIOUS WATCH TO WINTER STORM WARNING AND ADVY.                  
WRNG IS ESSENTIALLY WHERE SNOW AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE 4 INCHES              
PLUS.  THIS FUDGES CRITERIA SOMEWHAT...BUT BLENDS WELL INTO ADJACENT            
HEADLINES AND AM NOT GOING TO WORRY ABOUT DETAILS CONSIDERING THE               
BLOWING SNOW POTENTIAL.  JUST TO THE NW...SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW ADVY            
IN EFFECT WHERE AMOUNTS SHOULD REACH 1-4".                                      
SFC PRESSURES GO FROM JUST ABOVE 1000MB THIS EVE TO 985 OR LESS BY              
MIDDAY SUN WHEN LOW REACHES GREAT LAKES.  THIS WILL REALLY CRANK THE            
WINDS UP WITH IMPRESSIVE ISALLOBARIC COMPONENT AND PRES GRADIENT                
LIKELY PUSHING WINDS INTO BLIZZARD WARNING POTENTIAL ERN HALF.  NRN             
IL LOOKS TO BE HIT ESPECIALLY HARD.  THIS WOULD BE LATE 2ND PERIOD              
SO WILL LEAVE THAT UPGRADE FOR LATER SHIFTS BUT WOULD NOT BE                    
SURPRISED IF IT IS REACHED EARLY SUN WITH PROJECTED GUSTS INTO THE              
LOWER/MIDDLE 30KTS.  EXPECT PLENTY OF WRAP AROUND STRATUS AND                   
POTENTIALLY FLURRIES CONTINUING LATER SUN AND SUN NIGHT.  NO CHANGES            
TO LATER PERIODS.                                                               
CONSIDERING STRENGTH OF CAA...SNOW COVER AND PERSISTENT LOW CLOUDS              
HAVE GONE JUST BELOW COOLEST GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS SUN.  DO NOT SEE                
MUCH THERMAL CHANGE SUN NIGHT WITH MORE STRATUS AND WINDS KEEPING               
THINGS MIXED SO ONLY WENT WITH SEVERAL DEGREE DIURNAL DROP TOWARD               
HIGHER END OF GUIDANCE.  LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LINGERS INTO MON AND                
WITH INVERSION STILL IN PLACE AROUND SOLAR MIN DO NOT SEE MUCH HOPE             
FOR REBOUND.  HAVE CLIPPED CURRENT MON FORECAST QUITE A BIT NOW                 
GOING AT LEAST A CATEGORY BELOW COOLEST GUIDANCE...WHICH IS A BLEND             
OF RAW TEMPS.  MAY HAVE TO GO EVEN FURTHER IN UPCOMING PACKAGES.                
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...22/18Z                                                              
WINTER STORM BEGINNING TO GET UNDERWAY OVER SOUTH CENTRAL IOWA WHILE            
A COLD FRONT HAS BROUGHT MUCH DRIER AIR INTO THE NORTHWEST. EXPECT              
DSM/ALO/OTM TO BE NEAR THE BRUNT OF THE STORM WHILE MCW AND FOD                 
REMAIN JUST TO THE NORTHWEST. WIDESPREAD LIFR CONDITIONS WILL BE                
LIKELY FOR SEVERAL HOURS THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING AT                     
DSM/ALO/OTM BEFORE GRADUAL IMPROVEMENTS OVERNIGHT. IFR TO MVFR                  
VISIBILITIES MAY CONTINUE OVERNIGHT DUE TO BLOWING SNOW AS NORTHWEST            
WINDS REMAIN GUSTY. CEILINGS WILL RAISE FOR A PERIOD OVERNIGHT                  
THOUGH MORE STRATUS SHOULD DROP OUT OF THE NORTHWEST SUNDAY                     
MORNING.                                                                        
&&                                                                              
.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
DENSE FOG ADVY FOR EAST CENTRAL PORTION OF CWA THROUGH 15Z.                     
WINTER STORM WARNING BASICALLY ALONG AND EAST OF                                
CORNING-AMES-HAMPTON LINE 18Z-12Z.                                              
SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW ADVY BASICALLY ALONG AND EAST OF DNS-CIN-AXA              
LINE BLENDING INTO WARNING...21Z-12Z.                                           
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHORT TERM/AVIATION...DONAVON                                                   
LONG TERM...SMALL/ALBRECHT                                                      
</pre> ia                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY                                             
145 PM CST SAT DEC 22 2007                                                      
.SHORT TERM...                                                                  
INTENSE 500 MB SHORTWAVE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL LIFT                     
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT. SURFACE CYCLONE OVER            
EXTREME NE OKLAHOMA WILL DEEPEN AS IT TRACKS ACROSS THE KSTL AREA BY            
06Z. STRONG LOW LEVEL WIND FIELDS WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE THE                  
PRIMARY CONCERN. GRADIENT WINDS IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT WILL LIKELY             
BE VERY CLOSE TO ADVISORY CRITERIA THIS EVENING. PLAN TO ISSUE WIND             
ADVISORY WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE...MAINLY FOR GUSTS NEAR 45 MPH              
WHICH MAY BE ENHANCED BY PRECIPITATION OF A CONVECTIVE CHARACTER.               
INDIRECT EFFECT OF THESE STRONG WIND FIELDS WILL BE ON CONVECTIVE               
POTENTIAL. 850 MB WINDS ARE FORECAST BY THE RUC MODEL TO INCREASE TO            
50 TO 60 KT ACROSS WESTERN KENTUCKY BY MID EVENING. INTENSE FORCING             
ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT AND SHORTWAVE MAY RESULT             
IN A STRONGLY FORCED LINE OF LOW TOPPED CONVECTION. THE PRIMARY                 
LIMITING FACTORS ARE MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY. AN EASTERLY COMPONENT            
TO THE SURFACE WINDS IS IMPEDING THE NORTHWARD PROGRESS OF 60 DEGREE            
DEW POINTS THROUGH THE ARKLATEX REGION. RUC MODEL PINCHES OFF THE               
NARROW RIBBON OF 55 PLUS DEW POINTS BEFORE IT REACHES THE FORECAST              
AREA. THIS SUGGESTS THE PRIMARY HAZARD WILL BE A FEW DAMAGING WIND              
GUSTS WITH LOW TOPPED LINEAR STRUCTURES...PER 16Z SPC DAY 1 OUTLOOK.            
THE STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA AROUND               
06Z...A COUPLE HOURS SOONER IN THE WEST AND LATER IN THE EAST. THIS             
FRONT WILL END THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION. SOME LINGERING POST               
FRONTAL STRATIFORM PRECIP IS POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT...WHICH MAY END              
AS A BRIEF PERIOD OF SNOW IN PARTS OF SRN ILLINOIS AND SE MISSOURI.             
A SOLID LOW OVERCAST IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE                  
CENTER WILL PERSIST INTO EARLY SUNDAY. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT             
THAT 925/850 MB RH WILL DECREASE SHARPLY AROUND 12Z IN SE                       
MISSOURI...AND BY 18Z IN SOUTHWEST INDIANA AND PENNYRILE OF WEST                
KENTUCKY. A GUSTY WEST WIND AND STRONG COLD ADVECTION WILL PRODUCE              
WIND CHILLS IN THE 20S...IN SHARP CONTRAST TO TODAY.                            
MONDAY THROUGH CHRISTMAS DAY WILL BE A SHORT LIVED QUIET PERIOD                 
BEFORE AN ACTIVE PATTERN PATTERN RESUMES...AS DISCUSSED IN LONG TERM            
SEGMENT OF THIS DISCUSSION. LOW POPS FOR CHRISTMAS EVE/EARLY                    
CHRISTMAS DAY WILL BE CONVERTED TO MENTION OF FLURRIES. A WEAK 500              
MB SHORTWAVE WILL SHEAR APART AS IT CROSSES THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY            
NIGHT. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN PLENTY OF DRY                        
AIR...INHIBITING ANYTHING MORE THAN A TRACE EVENT.                              
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM...                                                                   
ERY PROGRESSIVE UPPER FLOW REGIME WILL BRING NEXT SYSTEM IN QUICKLY             
DURING THE DAY WED AND WED NIGHT. WITH SFC LOW EXPECTED TO PASS NEAR            
OR JUST NORTH OF THE REGION...SHOULD STAY JUST WARM ENOUGH TO KEEP              
MOST OF THE SIGNIFICANT PRECIP IN THE LIQUID FORM. STILL WILL ALLOW             
FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF A CHANGE OVER TO SNOW OR A MIX OF RAIN AND               
SNOW ALONG AND NW OF THE OHIO RIVER WED NIGHT BEFORE THE PRECIP                 
ENDS. 12Z GFS IS MUCH QUICKER WITH THE SYSTEM THAN IT HAS BEEN THE              
PAST SEVERAL RUNS. DECIDED TO DISCARD THIS QUICKER SOLUTION FOR THIS            
PACKAGE...AND WENT A LITTLE CLOSER TO THE MORE CONSISTENT AND SLOWER            
ECMWF SOLUTION. ALSO...THE ECMWF HAS BEEN THE BETTER MEDIUM RANGE               
PERFORMER AS OF LATE.                                                           
12Z GFS ALSO HAS COMPLETELY DIGRESSED FROM ITS PREVIOUS SOLUTION                
YESTERDAY OF BRINGING THE NEXT H50 SHORT WAVE INTO THE PLAINS FRI...            
OPTING TO KEEP THE UPPER SYSTEM OUT WEST. AGAIN...PREFER TO STICK               
WITH A SOLUTION CLOSER TO THE ECMWF HERE...WHICH CORRESPONDS CLOSELY            
TO WHAT WE HAVE ONGOING IN THE CURRENT FORECAST PACKAGE. IN                     
FACT...IF THE 00Z ECMWF TURNS OUT CLOSE TO REALITY...WE WILL BE                 
LOOKING AT A VERY POTENT SYSTEM COMING IN FRIDAY WITH EVEN A                    
POSSIBILITY OF SOME SEVERE WEATHER. OF COURSE...MANY THINGS COULD               
CHANGE BY THAT TIME.                                                            
WILL STAY FAIRLY CLOSE TO THE MEX MOS TEMPS IN THE WED THROUGH SAT              
TIME FRAME.                                                                     
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED CONVECTION WILL MOVE RAPIDLY NORTHEAST ACROSS              
THE TAF SITES THIS EVENING. VERY STRONG LOW LEVEL WIND FIELDS WILL              
POSE A CONCERN FOR AVIATION. SURFACE GUSTS TO AROUND 30 KT WILL                 
OCCUR PRIOR TO THE WIND SHIFT WITH THE COLD FRONT. WINDS ALOFT WILL             
BE NEAR 50 KT AT 3K FEET. FOLLOWING THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...WINDS                 
ALOFT WILL DIMINISH SOMEWHAT TO AROUND 40 KT. HOWEVER...SURFACE                 
GUSTS WILL REMAIN AROUND 30 KT. CIGS AND VSBYS WILL BE HIGHLY                   
VARIABLE IN CONVECTIVE PRECIP THIS EVENING. FOLLOWING THE FRONTAL               
PASSAGE...A STABLE MVFR CIG IS EXPECTED...WITH VSBYS BECOMING                   
EXCELLENT.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
KY...WIND ADVISORY THROUGH 15Z FOR WEST KY.                                     
MO...WIND ADVISORY THROUGH 15Z FOR SE MISSOURI.                                 
IL...WIND ADVISORY THROUGH 15Z FOR S IL.                                        
IN...WIND ADVISORY THROUGH 15Z FOR SW IN.                                       
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHORT TERM...MY                                                                 
LONG TERM...GM                                                                  
AVIATION...MY                                                                   
</pre> ky                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
524 PM EST SAT DEC 22 2007                                                      
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
SHORT TERM TO 00Z MON...                                                        
THE MAIN CONCERN WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR                
WINTER STORM TONIGHT AND SUNDAY.                                                
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC SHOWING A CLOSED LOW OVER NORTH DAKOTA              
EMBEDDED IN A LONGWAVE TROUGH THAT STRETCHES FROM NORTHERN MANITOBA             
TO TEXAS. WEAK SHORTWAVE EJECTED OUT OF THE BASE OF THIS TROUGH ARE             
MOVING THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA. A LITTLE STRONGER SHORTWAVES ARE              
OVER OKLAHOMA AND OVER EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA ACCOMPANYING THE CLOSED             
LOW. SURFACE ANALYSIS DEPICTS A LOW OVER WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR AND              
OVER SOUTHWEST MISSOURI. THESE LOW ARE LINKED BY A COLD FRONT. WARM             
MOISTURE AIR ARE DRAWN NORTH INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION AHEAD            
OF THIS SYSTEM BY THE CYCLONIC FLOW. SURFACE DEW POINTS ARE WELL                
INTO THE MID 30S ACROSS THE AREA. THIS CONTINUES TO GENERATE                    
RAIN...DRIZZLE AND FOG AROUND THE AREA.                                         
THE MID LEVEL LOW WILL DIVE SOUTH FROM NORTH DAKOTA INTO NORTHWEST              
IOWA TONIGHT. WHILE THE TWO SURFACE LOW MERGE OVERNIGHT NEAR KGRB.              
WARM MOIST AIR WILL CONTINUE TO BE DRAWN INTO THE AREA. ISENTROPIC              
ASCENT AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO GENERATE PRECIPITATION               
ACROSS THE AREA. NAM/GFS FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT                       
TEMPERATURES WILL STAY ABOVE FREEZING FROM SURFACE TO 850MB OVER THE            
EASTERN TWO THIRDS OF THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT. A THERMAL TROUGH               
BEHIND THE FRONT WILL EDGE INTO MINNESOTA AND WISCONSIN OVERNIGHT.              
THE SURFACE LOW WILL SHIFT NORTHWARD INTO CENTRAL U.P. BY SUNSET                
SUNDAY. TIGHTER GRADIENTS BEHIND THE LOW WILL CAUSE STRONG                      
WINDS OVER LAKE SUPERIOR AND EXPOSED AREA ALONG THE LAKE SUPERIOR               
SHORE. WRAP AROUND MOISTURE WILL SPREAD OVER THE AREA EARLY ON                  
SUNDAY AND COLD AIR BEHIND THE LOW AND FRONT WILL CHANGE THE RAIN TO            
SNOW. 850MB DELTA-T`S WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 9C OVER THE WEST.                 
EXPECT HEAVIEST SNOWFALL AMOUNTS OVER THE WESTERN U.P. DUE TO LAKE              
ENHANCED CONDITIONS.                                                            
LONGER TERM...00Z MON ONWARD...                                                 
NAM SHOWING THE CLOSED 500 MB LOW OVER SE LOWER MI 00Z MON THAT                 
HEADS TO WESTERN QUE 12Z MON. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES EAST ON              
MON THEN WITH A WEAK SHORTWAVE ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE TROUGH                    
AFFECTING THE CWA ON MON. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING THEN MOVES IN FOR MON             
NIGHT. THE NAM IS SHOWING 850-500 MB Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE MOVING OUT            
SUN NIGHT WITH MOISTURE ALSO BEGINNING TO MOVE OUT. WEAK 850-500 MB             
Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE MOVES BACK IN FOR MON AFTERNOON WITH THE                   
SHORTWAVE ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE TROUGH...BUT DEEP MOISTURE BY THAT             
TIME IS GONE. SUN NIGHT...NAM IS SHOWING ISENTROPIC LIFT STILL ON               
THE BACKSIDE OF THE SYSTEM COMING IN FROM THE NE ON I280K-I295K                 
SURFACES WITH WEAK BROADSCALE LIFT AT 06Z MON WITH MOISTURE STILL IN            
THE AREA BEFORE THE MOISTURE MOVES OUT AFTER 12Z MON. GFS SHOWS                 
ABOUT THE SAME THING FOR Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE AS WELL. WILL USE A               
BLEND OF THE TWO FOR THIS FORECAST.                                             
SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE A PROBLEM OVER THE EASTERN CWA. DECIDED TO GO              
WITH A WATCH AT THIS POINT SINCE IT WILL BE NASTY AND IT IS                     
CHRISTMAS TRAVELING SEASON. NOT SURE IF ADVISORY CRITERIA WILL EVEN             
BE MET OVER THE EAST OR EVEN WARNING CRITERIA AND NORMALLY WOULD NOT            
ISSUE A WATCH FOR THIS SITUATION...BUT WANT TO GET TRAVELERS A                  
HEADS UP IT WILL BE BAD WITH SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW OVER THE ERN CWA             
WITH STRONGER WINDS OVER THE EAST SUN NIGHT. THAT IS THE REASON FOR             
A WATCH AT THIS TIME OVER THE ERN CWA. LATER SHIFTS CAN GO WITH                 
WARNINGS OR ADVISORIES WHEN THEY ARE NEEDED OVER THE EAST.                      
SUN NIGHT...SYNOPTIC SNOW WILL BE WINDING DOWN AND WILL BE REPLACED             
BY LAKE EFFECT OR LAKE ENHANCEMENT. COULD BE UP TO 5 INCHES OF SNOW             
POSSIBLE THEN WITH THE HEAVIEST SNOW IN THE EVENING. 850 MB                     
TEMPERATURES GET DOWN TO ABOUT -8 TO -10C...BUT DEEP MOISTURE IS                
GONE BY THAT TIME. WILL CONTINUE THE WARNINGS IN THE WEST HALF TO               
12Z MON FOR THIS REASON WITH A BIT OF BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW THEN            
TOO.                                                                            
MONDAY...LAKE EFFECT WINDS DOWN AS DRIER AIR ENTERS INTO THE AREA.              
OVERALL...DID NOT MAKE TOO MANY DRASTIC CHANGES TO THE GOING                    
FORECAST FOR TEMPERATURES OR WEATHER.                                           
IN THE EXTENDED...00Z ECMWF WHICH WILL BE THE MODEL OF CHOICE TODAY             
HAS A TROUGH AFFECTING THE CWA WED AND THU WITH RIDGING FOR FRI AND             
ANOTHER POTENTIAL LARGE STORM FOR SAT WITH A CLOSED 500 MB LOW                  
MOVING FROM THE 4 CORNERS REGION TO THE AREA FOR SAT. DID NOT MAKE              
TOO MANY CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST EXCEPT TO GO DRY FOR LATE THU            
NIGHT THROUGH FRI AS SFC RIDGING MOVES IN AND SNOW MOVES IN FOR FRI             
NIGHT AND SAT. THIS SYSTEM WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED AS IT IS A FOUR              
CORNERS LOW AND COMES UP OUR WAY WITH PLENTY OF MOISTURE AVAILABLE.             
THIS COULD BE THE NEXT BIG STORM...BUT TOO FAR OUT TO REALLY WORRY              
ABOUT YET AS THINGS COULD CHANGE. KEPT PRETTY CLOSE TO GOING                    
TEMPERATURES.                                                                   
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION (FOR THE 18Z TAF ISSUANCE)...                                         
AVIATION FORECASTS ARE A LITTLE TRICKY...PRIMARILY AT CMX. THERE IS             
ALSO A 100 FT BROKEN DECK AT THE SITE...WHICH WITH THE EAST                     
WIND...HAVE DECIDED TO INCLUDE A TEMPO FOR A IFR DECK. VSBYS AND                
CEILINGS CONTINUING LIFR THIS EVENING STILL LOOKS GOOD...AND WITH               
PLENTY OF MOISTURE/RAIN AROUND ASSOCIATED WITH LOW PRESSURE LIFTING             
NORTH FROM MISSOURI TOWARDS GREEN BAY...CANNOT IMAGINE CONDITIONS               
GETTING ANY BETTER AT CMX. RAIN SHOULD CHANGE OVER TO SNOW AT CMX               
LATE TONIGHT. AT SAW...SE WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE ENTIRE                 
PERIOD...RESULTING IN UPSLOPE FLOW WHICH SHOULD HELP HOLD CEILINGS              
AT LIFR. AS FAR AS VSBYS GO...CURRENT LIFR READINGS SHOULD BE ABLE              
TO HOLD THROUGH THE AFTERNOON THANKS TO SNOWMELT MAINTAINING FOG.               
HOWEVER...THE TYPICAL DIURNAL VARIATION COULD ALLOW VSBYS TO CLIMB              
TO IFR FOR SOME OF THIS AFTERNOON. A STEADY RAIN DEVELOPING TONIGHT             
SHOULD ONLY HELP TO KEEP CEILINGS LOW...BUT THERE IS SOME CONCERN               
FOR VSBYS TO RISE. WILL BANK ON SNOWMELT TO HELP KEEP VSBYS LOW. AS             
COOLER AIR ENTERS THE AREA EARLY SUNDAY MORNING THE RAIN SHOULD                 
GRADUALLY CHANGE TO SNOW.                                                       
&&                                                                              
.MARINE (FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)...                       
AFTER A GENERAL QUIET PERIOD ON LAKE SUPERIOR THROUGH TONIGHT WITH              
WINDS NO HIGHER THAN 25 KT (GREATEST NEAR WHITEFISH POINT)...WINDS              
WILL REALLY INCREASE ON SUNDAY. THIS RAPID INCREASE IS DUE TO LOW               
PRESSURE OVER SOUTHERN MISSOURI THIS EVENING THAT RAPIDLY DEEPENS AS            
IT HEADS DUE NORTH TOWARD CENTRAL UPPER MICHIGAN. AS THE LOW MOVES              
TO NEAR MARQUETTE EARLY SUNDAY AFTERNOON...NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS             
ACROSS WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR SHOULD INCREASE TO GALES. AS THE LOW               
SHIFTS FROM NEAR MUNISING SUNDAY EVENING INTO NORTHWEST QUEBEC LATE             
IN THE NIGHT...WINDS WILL QUICKLY RELAX...DROPPING BELOW GALES                  
ACROSS ALL OF LAKE SUPERIOR JUST AFTER MIDNIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT. WINDS             
BELOW 30 KT ARE THEN EXPECTED FOR CHRISTMAS EVE INTO                            
WEDNESDAY...WITH A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE CROSSING MONDAY NIGHT AND A              
LOW PRESSURE TROUGH CROSSING TUESDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER LOW WITH AN                 
ACCOMPANYING FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL SHIFT ACROSS THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY.            
WINDS WILL PICK UP BEHIND THE LOW ON WEDNESDAY.                                 
&&                                                                              
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
MICHIGAN...HEAVY SNOW WARNING FROM 1 AM EST /MIDNIGHT CST/ SUNDAY TO 7 AM       
     EST /6 AM CST/ MONDAY FOR MIZ002-004-005-009-010-084.                      
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH MONDAY MORNING              
     FOR MIZ006-007-014-085.                                                    
     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 1 AM SUNDAY TO 7 AM EST MONDAY FOR               
     MIZ001-003.                                                                
     HEAVY SNOW WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6 PM CST SUNDAY FOR            
     MIZ011.                                                                    
LAKE SUPERIOR...GALE WARNING FROM 7 PM SUNDAY TO 5 AM EST MONDAY FOR LSZ266-267.
     GALE WARNING FROM 7 PM SUNDAY TO 3 AM EST MONDAY FOR LSZ265.               
     GALE WARNING FROM 11 AM SUNDAY TO 5 AM EST MONDAY FOR LSZ264.              
     GALE WARNING FROM 7 PM SUNDAY TO 1 AM EST MONDAY FOR LSZ245.               
     GALE WARNING FROM 5 PM SUNDAY TO 1 AM EST MONDAY FOR LSZ242>244.           
     GALE WARNING FROM 11 AM SUNDAY TO 3 AM EST MONDAY FOR LSZ263.              
     GALE WARNING FROM 10 AM SUNDAY TO 9 PM CST SUNDAY FOR LSZ162.              
LAKE MICHIGAN...GALE WARNING FROM 1 PM TO 8 PM EST SUNDAY FOR LMZ221-248-250.   
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHORT TERM/AVIATION/MARINE...DLG                                                
LONG TERM...GJM                                                                 
</pre> mi                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI                                        
139 PM EST SAT DEC 22 2007                                                      
LATEST UPDATE...AVIATION...                                                     
.SYNOPSIS...(358 AM EST SAT DEC 22 2007)                                        
THE BIG STORY THIS WEEKEND WILL BE THE APPROACH AND PASSAGE OF A LOW            
PRESSURE SYSTEM. AHEAD OF THE LOW WE/LL SEE FOG AND DRIZZLE TODAY...            
WITH A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE TOO...AND THEN WINDY CONDITIONS SUNDAY              
MORNING AS THE LOW MOVES NORTH THROUGH LOWER MICHIGAN AND A COLD                
FRONT MOVES BY. MUCH COLDER AIR WILL THEN FLOW ACROSS THE STATE AND             
LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP. THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG                 
WINDS EXISTS WITH GUSTS TO 50 MPH. THAT MEANS THE SNOW WILL BLOW AND            
DRIFT QUITE A BIT.                                                              
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM...(1132 AM EST SAT DEC 22 2007)                                     
FOR THE MOST PART THE FOG IS EITHER LIFTING OR WILL BE LIFTING. AS A            
RESULT I HAVE PULLED THE FOG OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR THIS AFTERNOON             
AND TONIGHT FOR ALL BUT THE EXTREME NORTH. THE LATEST MODEL DATA                
(RUC AND NAM) PLUS VAD WIND PROFILES AND TAMDAR DATA SUGGEST                    
BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS WILL BE NEAR 35 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON. AT 14Z               
TAMDAR SHOWED 44 KNOTS OVER GRR AROUND 4900 AGL.  THAT SHOULD                   
INDUCE ENOUGH MIXING TO KEEP THE FOG FROM REALLY BEING AN ISSUE OVER            
MOST OF THE CWA EVEN WITH THE SNOW MELT AND 45F DEW POINTS TO OUR               
SOUTH HEADING OUR WAY. FOR THOSE REASONS I SIGNIFICANTLY INCREASED              
OUR FORECAST HIGH TODAY TO BETWEEN 45 AND 50 OVER ALL BUT THE                   
NORTHERN CWA. FOR THE MOST PART IT WILL JUST BE CLOUDY UNTIL THE                
FRONTAL PRECIPITATION BAND MOVES ACROSS THE CWA AFTER 3 AM.                     
ONE OTHER THOUGH...I NOW BELIEVE WE WILL NOT SEEM MUCH SNOW DURING              
THE DAY TIME OF SUNDAY. IT WILL TAKE UNTIL THE NEXT SHORTWAVE                   
ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER LOW MOVES IN SUNDAY EVENING TO GET THE                
SNOW SHOWERS GOING. THIS WOULD LEAD TO A WIND ADVISORY SUNDAY AND A             
SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW ADVISORY SUNDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER... AT THIS                 
POINT NOT WANTING TO HAVE TWO HEADLINES OUT...AND NOT BEING TOTALLY             
SURE OF THIS ANYWAY...MORE THAN LIKELY I WILL LET OUR HEADLINES                 
STAND AS IS THEY ARE FOR THE 4 PM FORECAST UPDATE. THE MIDNIGHT                 
SHIFT CAN MAKE THE FINAL DECISION AS TO WHAT HEADLINE TO ACTUALLY GO            
WITH.                                                                           
PREVIOUS DISSUASION...IT/S NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT WE MAY SEE A            
THUNDERSTORM JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT EARLY SUNDAY MORNING...                    
ESPECIALLY OVER THE SOUTHERN CWA. ELEVATED LI/S FALL JUST BELOW 0C              
AND THETA-E DECREASES WITH HEIGHT. BUT I THINK THE CHANCE IS SMALL              
ENOUGH TO LEAVE OUT OF THE GRIDS ATTM.                                          
THE ARCTIC FRONT WILL SLAM THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY. RAIN WILL QUICKLY              
CHANGE OVER TO SNOW SHOWERS/SQUALLS AS H8 TEMPS AROUND -15C MOVE                
THROUGH. WINDS IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL BE IN THE 55 KT RANGE AND             
SOME OF THIS WILL GET PULLED TO THE GROUND. WITH THE STRONG WINDS               
THAT ARE EXPECTED...WE/LL SEE A VERY CELLULAR APPEARANCE TO THE                 
SNOW. IT WILL ALSO BLOW ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA. THE WSW FLOW WILL                
FAVOR THE CENTRAL CWA ALONG THE US131 CORRIDOR. GOING ACCUMS IN THE             
GRIDS LOOK OK AT THIS POINT.                                                    
THERE ARE A COUPLE OF THINGS GOING FOR THIS SYSTEM. FIRST IS THAT IT            
WILL BE INTENSIFYING AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE STATE. SECOND IS THE                
STRONG UPPER SUPPORT. SEVERAL STRONG SHORT WAVES ARE PROGGED TO MOVE            
THROUGH THE CWA SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT WHICH WILL HELP SNOWFALL                
RATES. SECOND IS THE DEEP SNOW GROWTH REGION LATE SUNDAY WITH AN                
OMEGA BULLSEYE IN IT. COUPLED WITH THE LAKE INSTABILITY...WE COULD              
SEE ACCUMS IN THE 6-8 INCH RANGE ACROSS THE CENTRAL CWA...ALTHOUGH              
IT/S GOING TO BE DIFFICULT TO MEASURE WITH THE STRONG WIND. WE/LL               
KEEP THE WATCH GOING AT THIS POINT.                                             
GFS SHOWS CYCLONIC CURVATURE OVER LOWER MICHIGAN THROUGH MONDAY                 
ALTHOUGH THE MAIN LOW WILL BE OVER NEW ENGLAND BY THEN. SHSN WILL               
BEGIN TO WIND DOWN BY LATE IN THE DAY AS H8 TEMPS WARM TO -7C OVER              
THE LAKE.                                                                       
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM...(358 AM EST SAT DEC 22 2007)                                       
LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD DIMINISH/END ON CHRISTMAS EVE AND               
QUIET WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED FOR CHRISTMAS DAY AS A RIDGE OF HIGH               
PRESSURE IMPACTS THE REGION.                                                    
THE NEXT FEATURE OF INTEREST IS A TROUGH WHICH ENTERS THE PICTURE               
FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. CURRENTLY IT APPEARS THAT AN                  
ELONGATED N-S SURFACE TROUGH WILL CROSS THE REGION AND BRING SOME               
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS. HOWEVER THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR A STRONG               
SRN STREAM SHORTWAVE TO HEAD NORTHEAST FROM THE SRN PLAINS/GULF                 
COAST REGION AND SPIN UP A DECENT SURFACE LOW WHICH COULD PASS                  
THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY. THIS SCENARIO COULD LEAD TO A SIGNIFICANT              
SNOW EVENT...BUT MODELS ARE NOT IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT ON HOW THIS              
WILL PLAY OUT ATTM.                                                             
CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT DEEP H5 LONGWAVE TROUGHING WILL PERSIST            
EAST OF THE ROCKIES DURING THE LATE WEEK PERIOD. THIS PATTERN MAY               
ALLOW ANOTHER CYCLONE OR TWO TO TRACK SW TO NE THROUGH THE REGION               
AND BRING A THREAT OF RAIN OR SNOW.                                             
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...(139 PM EST SAT DEC 22 2007)                                        
WIDESPREAD IFR/MVFR IN STRATUS/FOG WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY                
CONDITIONS WILL FALL BACK TO IFR/LIFR TONIGHT. RAIN SHOWERS WILL                
BECOME WIDESPREAD/STEADIER AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT AND THAT SHOULD               
LIMIT THE THREAT/EXTENT OF THE DENSE FOG FROM LAST NIGHT. THE RAIN              
SHOULD CONTINUE INTO THE DAY.                                                   
&&                                                                              
.MARINE...(1132 AM EST SAT DEC 22 2007)                                         
WE MAY NEED A STORM WARNING OVER THE SOUTHERN NEAR SHORE AREAS                  
SUNDAY EVENING AS BOTH THE RUC13 AND LOCAL WAF SHOW 50 KNOT SURFACE             
WINDS OVER THE SOUTHEAST 1/3 OF THE LAKE. PROBLEM THERE THOUGH IS               
THE NAM 12Z RUN SHOWS ONLY 45 KNOTS OVER MID LAKE TO MIX DOWN AT                
THAT TIME. SO FOR NOW I WILL NOT CHANGE THE HEADLINES BUT WILL                  
CONSIDER AND UPGRADE WITH THE 4 PM MARINE FORECAST. HAVING A NEARLY             
20 MB PRESSURE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN ORD AND TVC AT 00Z MONDAY IS                  
SOMETHING ONE NEEDS TO CONSIDER!                                                
&&                                                                              
.HYDROLOGY...(1132 AM EST SAT DEC 22 2007)                                      
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDRO ISSUES ARE ANTICIPATED. A QUICK CHECK OF OUR               
RIVERS AT 15Z SHOWS THEY ARE FOR THE MOST PART STEADY AND SHOWING NO            
SIGNIFICANT RISES. THEY ARE ALSO ALL SIGNIFICANTLY BELOW ACTION                 
STAGE. WE HAVE SOME INDICATIONS OF RIVER ICE IN PLACES BUT WITH THIS            
SLOW WARM UP BEFORE THE RAIN COMES...AND WITH THE QPF BEING A HALF              
INCH OR LESS WITH THE RAIN PART OF THIS SYSTEM PLUS CONSIDERING                 
THAT WHAT IS RUNNING OFF WILL QUICKLY FREEZE SUNDAY ANYWAY I BELIEVE            
WE DO NOT HAVE TO WORRY TO MUCH ABOUT ANY HYDRO HAZARDS.                        
&&                                                                              
.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
MI...A WINTER STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FROM 16Z SUNDAY THROUGH                  
12Z MONDAY FOR ALL BUT THE EASTERN AND SOUTHERN ROW OF SOUTHWEST                
LOWER MICHIGAN.                                                                 
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT TODAY AND TONIGHT ENTIRE                    
NEARSHORE.                                                                      
A GALE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT ENTIRE                   
NEARSHORE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SYNOPSIS:   93                                                                  
SHORT TERM: WDM                                                                 
LONG TERM:  MEADE                                                               
AVIATION:   MEADE                                                               
MARINE:     WDM                                                                 
HYDROLOGY:  WDM                                                                 
</pre> mi                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
1224 PM EST SAT DEC 22 2007                                                     
,,,UPDATE FOR AVIATION...                                                       
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
THE MAIN CONCERN WITH THIS FORECAST UPDATE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR AND             
FOG THIS AFTERNOON...                                                           
.SYNOPSIS...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC SHOWING TWO CLOSED LOW                  
EMBEDDED IN A LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER MID SECTION OF CONUS. ONE OF THE             
LOWS IS OVER NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA AND THE OTHER IS OVER THE               
TEXAS PANHANDLE. WEAK SHORTWAVES BEING EJECTED OUT OF THIS SYSTEM               
ARE OVER IOWA AND OVER LAKE SUPERIOR. SURFACE ANALYSIS DEPICTS A LOW            
OVER EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND A LOW OVER WESTERN ONTARIO WITH A COLD                
FRONT EXTENDING BETWEEN THE TWO LOWS. A LARGE HIGH OVER MIDDLE HIGH             
PLAINS IS PUSHING THE FRONTAL SYSTEM EAST. THE FLOW AHEAD OF THE                
FRONTAL SYSTEM IS DRAWING DEEP MOISTURE AND WARM AIR FROM THE GULF              
NORTHWARD INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION. ISENTROPIC ASCENT AHEAD            
OF THE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO PRODUCE RAINS OVER THE AREA. KMQT-88D                
SHOWING SEVERAL BANDS OF RAIN MOVING THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA. LOW             
LEVEL MOISTURE AND SURFACE BASED INVERSION AND LIGHT WINDS HAVE                 
PRODUCE CONSIDERABLE FOG AROUND THE AREA THIS MORNING.                          
.SHORT TERM...TODAY...                                                          
THE MID LEVEL LOW OVER NORTH DAKOTA WILL SHIFT TO EAST CENTRAL NORTH            
DAKOTA TODAY...WHILE THE TEXAS LOW LIFTS NORTHEAST INTO SOUTHEAST               
KANSAS. THE ONTARIO SURFACE LOW WILL SETTLE SOUTH INTO WESTERN LAKE             
SUPERIOR WHILE THE OKLAHOMA LOW MOVES INTO SOUTHERN MISSOURI. THE               
FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO DRAW MORE DEEP MOISTURE INTO THE                
REGION AHEAD OF IT. AREAS OF RAIN WILL CONTINUE OVER THE AREA TODAY             
AS WEAK SHORTWAVES SHIFT INTO THE AREA AND ISENTROPIC ASCENT PREVAIL            
OVER THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON.                                                   
LONG TERM...TONIGHT AND LATER...                                                
FOR TNGT...NAM/GFS IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT SHOWING DETAILS OF PHASING            
BRANCHES...WITH RDPLY DEEPENING LO PRES MOVING TO NEAR GRB BY 12Z               
SUN. INCRSG UPR DIFFLUENCE/H5 HGT FALLS/DEEP LYR QVECTOR CNVGC TO               
THE NE OF DVLPG NEGATIVELY TILTED CUTOFF LO AT H5 JUST TO THE SW OF             
MPX ESPECIALLY AFT 06Z WL SUPPORT INCRSGLY WDSPRD PCPN. TRACK OF SFC            
LO WL DRAW ENUF WARM AIR INTO THE ERN/NCNTRL FA TO MAINTAIN JUST                
RA... BUT OVER THE W THE COMBINATION OF INTENSE UVV/DYNAMIC COOLING             
AND INFLUX OF LLVL COLD AIR WL CAUSE THE PCPN TO BE SN OR CHG TO SN.            
USING NAM FCST WBZ HGT OF 1500FT/H925-85 THKNS OF 676M AS A GUIDE...            
LOOK FOR THE RA/SN LINE TO BE FM CMX-HURON MNTS-CRYSTAL FALLS OR SO             
BY 12Z SUN ON THE COLD SIDE OF THE H85 LO TRACK.                                
ON SUN...SFC LO PROGGED TO MOVE TO SLOWLY TO ARND SCNTRL LK SUP BY              
LATE IN THE DAY AS UPR LO SLIDES INTO THE CNTRL GRT LKS...SUPPORTING            
12HR H5 HGT FALLS UP TO 150M. PCPN WL GRDLY CHG TO SN WITH DYNAMIC              
COOLING...BUT WARM LYR ALF/TROWAL FEATURE WL RETARD CHGOVER NEAR LK             
SUP OVER THE NCNTRL...ESPECIALLY WITH N FLOW OFF THE WARM LK WATERS.            
IN FACT...THE PCPN MAY CHG TO SN FASTER OVER THE E AND NEAR LK MI               
THAN AT THE CITY OF MQT. OTRW...ARRIVAL OF HIER SPECIFIC HUMIDITY FM            
THE NNE TO THE W OF LO WL ENHANCE PCPN RATES ESPECIALLY WHERE LLVL              
NNE FLOW UPSLOPES AND WHERE CROSS SECTION SHOWS THETA-E DCRSG A BIT             
WITH HGT ABV TROWAL ACRS THE NCNTRL W OF MQT. WHERE THE PCPN FALLS              
AS SN...INCRSG WINDS WL CAUSE CONSIDERABLE BLSN. BUT FCST SCENARIO              
ATTM SEEMS TO SUG WINDS/BLSN WL NOT BE AS SGNFT AS PREVIOUSLY                   
THOUGHT. SINCE THE HEAVIEST SN WL FALL ONLY LATE IN THE SECOND PD               
AND THE THIRD PD...OPTED TO KEEP GOING WATCH AND NOT UPGRADE TO                 
WRNG...ESPECIALLY SINCE 06Z NAM APPEARS TO BE SLOWER BRINGING IN THE            
SHARPER DYNAMICS.                                                               
EXPECT ANY PCPN TO BE ALL SN SUN NGT BUT THEN TO GRDLY DIMINISH AS              
HGTS RISE FAIRLY SHARPLY IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING UPR LO WITH               
UPR CNVGC/DNVA/DEEP LYR QVECTOR DVGC. INCOMING AIRMASS DOES NOT                 
APPEAR PARTICULARLY COLD (H85 TEMPS ARND -10C) EITHER WITH HIER MSTR            
TENDING ...SO LES SHOULD NOT GET OUT OF HAND. BUT PERSISTENT CYC                
FLOW WL CONT -SHSN THRU THE NGT ALBEIT AT A LIGHTER RATE.                       
COORDINATED WITH APX/GRB/DLH.                                                   
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION (FOR THE 18Z TAF ISSUANCE)...                                         
AVIATION FORECASTS ARE A LITTLE TRICKY...PRIMARILY AT CMX. THERE IS             
ALSO A 100 FT BROKEN DECK AT THE SITE...WHICH WITH THE EAST                     
WIND...HAVE DECIDED TO INCLUDE A TEMPO FOR A IFR DECK. VSBYS AND                
CEILINGS CONTINUING LIFR THIS EVENING STILL LOOKS GOOD...AND WITH               
PLENTY OF MOISTURE/RAIN AROUND ASSOCIATED WITH LOW PRESSURE LIFTING             
NORTH FROM MISSOURI TOWARDS GREEN BAY...CANNOT IMAGINE CONDITIONS               
GETTING ANY BETTER AT CMX. RAIN SHOULD CHANGE OVER TO SNOW AT CMX               
LATE TONIGHT. AT SAW...SE WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE ENTIRE                 
PERIOD...RESULTING IN UPSLOPE FLOW WHICH SHOULD HELP HOLD CEILINGS              
AT LIFR. AS FAR AS VSBYS GO...CURRENT LIFR READINGS SHOULD BE ABLE              
TO HOLD THROUGH THE AFTERNOON THANKS TO SNOWMELT MAINTAINING FOG.               
HOWEVER...THE TYPICAL DIURNAL VARIATION COULD ALLOW VSBYS TO CLIMB              
TO IFR FOR SOME OF THIS AFTERNOON. A STEADY RAIN DEVELOPING TONIGHT             
SHOULD ONLY HELP TO KEEP CEILINGS LOW...BUT THERE IS SOME CONCERN               
FOR VSBYS TO RISE. WILL BANK ON SNOWMELT TO HELP KEEP VSBYS LOW. AS             
COOLER AIR ENTERS THE AREA EARLY SUNDAY MORNING THE RAIN SHOULD                 
GRADUALLY CHANGE TO SNOW.                                                       
&&                                                                              
.MARINE (FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)...                       
AFTER A GENERAL QUIET PERIOD ON LAKE SUPERIOR THROUGH TONIGHT WITH              
WINDS NO HIGHER THAN 25 KT (GREATEST NEAR WHITEFISH POINT)...EXPECT             
WINDS TO REALLY INCREASE SUNDAY. THIS RAPID INCREASE IS DUE TO LOW              
PRESSURE OVER SOUTHERN MISSOURI THIS EVENING THAT RAPIDLY DEEPENS AS            
IT HEADS DUE NORTH TOWARD CENTRAL UPPER MICHIGAN. AS THE LOW MOVES              
TO NEAR MARQUETTE EARLY SUNDAY AFTERNOON...NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS             
ACROSS WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR SHOULD INCREASE TO GALES. BY SUNDAY                
EVENING...THERE IS A CHANCE THEY COULD INCREASE TO STORM FORCE...               
ESPECIALLY NEAR ISLE ROYALE. AS THE LOW SHIFTS FROM NEAR MUNISING               
SUNDAY EVENING INTO NORTHWEST QUEBEC LATE IN THE NIGHT...WINDS WILL             
QUICKLY RELAX...DROPPING BELOW GALES ACROSS ALL OF LAKE SUPERIOR                
JUST AFTER MIDNIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT. WINDS BELOW 30 KT ARE THEN                    
EXPECTED FOR CHRISTMAS EVE INTO WEDNESDAY...WITH A HIGH PRESSURE                
RIDGE CROSSING MONDAY NIGHT AND A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH CROSSING                  
TUESDAY NIGHT.                                                                  
&&                                                                              
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY                      
MORNING FOR MIZ001>005-009-010-084.                                             
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY                      
AFTERNOON FOR MIZ011.                                                           
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SYNOPSIS AND SHORT TERM...DLG                                                   
LONG TERM...KC                                                                  
AVIATION...AJ                                                                   
MARINE...AJ                                                                     
</pre> mi                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN                              
415 PM CST SAT DEC 22 2007                                                      
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
FORECAST CONCERN TODAY IS FAIRLY OBVIOUS...WITH CYCLOGENESIS                    
TAKING PLACE OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL               
EXPECTED OVER PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. LATEST WATER VAPOR                 
IMAGERY AND RUC UPPER AIR ANALYSES DEPICT A DEEP TROUGH OVER THE                
CENTRAL CONUS...WITH A SOUTHERN SHORTWAVE FEATURE LIFTING                       
NORTHEAST FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AS A VIGOROUS NORTHERN STREAM                
WAVE AND ASSOCIATED COLD POOL DIVE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE DAKOTAS.               
THESE FEATURES WILL PHASE OVER THE NEXT 12-24 HOURS...WITH RAPID                
CYCLOGENESIS OCCURRING OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...AND A                      
DEEPENING MOVING NORTH TOWARD THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. THREE HOUR                 
SEA LEVEL PRESSURE CHANGES HAVE INCREASED MARKEDLY OVER THE PAST                
FEW HOURS OVER THE MID AND SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND THIS                 
TREND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT AS THE CURRENT 1001 MB LOW                
DEEPENS TO AROUND 989 MB BY 12Z SUNDAY. THE 12Z                                 
GFS...NAM...ECMWF...AND SREFS ARE IN QUITE GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE                
EVOLUTION OF THE MAIN SURFACE AND UPPER AIR FEATURES THROUGH                    
SUNDAY EVENING...SO A GENERAL BLEND OF THEIR GUIDANCE WAS USED FOR              
THE FORECAST.                                                                   
SNOWFALL HAS DEVELOPED QUITE RAPIDLY OVER IOWA THIS                             
AFTERNOON...AND THIS AREA OF SNOW WILL MOVE NNE TONIGHT AS WARM                 
ADVECTION SURGES NORTH ALONG WITH INCREASING UPPER DIVERGENCE IN                
THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF THE JET STREAK LIFTING NORTHEAST FROM THE               
LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THERE WILL BE A VERY SHARP DEMARCATION                
IN THE AREA OF HEAVIER PCPN TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING...WITH                  
MOISTURE AND FORCING DROPPING OFF SIGNIFICANTLY JUST WEST OF THE                
WISCONSIN BORDER. CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS AND ISENTROPIC                 
UPGLIDE ON THE 290K SURFACE SHOW THIS FAIRLY WELL...AND EXPECT THE              
BEST CHANCES FOR SNOWFALL TONIGHT TO BE OVER THE FAR EASTERN CWFA.              
IN ADDITION TO THE ISENTROPIC ASCENT AND FORCING SUPPLIED BY UPPER              
LEVEL DIVERGENCE...SOME DECENT FRONTOGENESIS IN THE 700-750MB                   
LAYER SHOULD HELP AUGMENT LIFT ACROSS THE EASTERN CWFA                          
TONIGHT...AND THE NAM AND GFS BOTH SUGGEST THE PRESENCE OF SOME                 
NEGATIVE EPV JUST ABOVE THIS LAYER...OWING PRIMARILY TO POTENTIAL               
INSTABILITY GIVEN THE NEARLY VERTICAL AND EVEN SLIGHTLY INVERTED                
THETA-E SURFACES ABOVE 650MB.                                                   
IT APPEARS THERE WILL BE A GAP OR BRIEF LULL IN THE HEAVIER                     
SNOWFALL AROUND 12Z ON SUNDAY AS THE INITIAL BURST OWING TO THE                 
FACTORS MENTIONED ABOVE WANE FOR A BRIEF TIME AND THERE IS ACTUAL               
A PERIOD OF FAIRLY SUBSTANTIAL MID LEVEL FRONTOLYSIS AND                        
SUBSIDENCE OVER THE EASTERN COUNTIES. HOWEVER...AS THE SURFACE LOW              
LIFTS TOWARD UPPER MICHIGAN LATER SUNDAY MORNING...THE MID LEVEL                
DEFORMATION ZONE AROUND THE BACK SIDE OF THE LOW WILL SWING BACK                
INTO THE FORECAST AREA...IMPACTING NOT ONLY THE EASTERN COUNTIES                
BUT ALSO A GOOD PART OF THE REMAINING FORECAST AREA. THE FAR                    
SOUTHWEST WILL HAVE THE LEAST CHANCE OF SEEING ACCUMULATING SNOW                
ON SUNDAY...BUT A FEW INCHES COULD FALL OVER MUCH OF THE REMAINING              
AREA...INCLUDING THE TWIN CITIES. THERE WILL ACTUALLY BE SOME                   
PERSISTENT...ALBEIT WEAK...UPGLIDE FROM THE NORTHEAST ON THE 290K               
SURFACE FOR MUCH OF THE DAY...WITH MUCH BETTER DEEP LAYER RH OVER               
THE ENTIRE AREA AS MOISTURE WRAPS AROUND THE BACK SIDE OF THE                   
OCCLUDING SYSTEM. 650-700MB FRONTOGENESIS LOOKS LIKE IT WILL RE-                
ESTABLISH ITSELF IN THE DEFORMATION ZONE...ALTHOUGH ONCE AGAIN                  
THIS FORCING MECHANISM LOOKS LIKE IT WILL AUGMENT THINGS BEST OVER              
THE EAST AND NORTHEAST COUNTIES.                                                
AS THE SYSTEM OCCLUDES AND SHIFTS FARTHER NORTHEAST SUNDAY NIGHT                
WE SHOULD FINALLY SEE THINGS SETTLE DOWN ACROSS THE ENTIRE                      
FORECAST AREA. WINDS THROUGHOUT THE EVENT WILL BE QUITE                         
STRONG...WITH THE GFS AND NAM BOTH SUGGESTING SOME 35-40KT WINDS                
IN THE MIXED LAYER...SO 20-30KT WINDS LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY               
COULD GUST NEAR 40MPH AT TIMES...WHICH WILL DEFINITELY MAKE                     
CONDITIONS WORSE THAN THEY WOULD BE FROM THE SNOWFALL ALONE.                    
LOCATIONS THAT ONLY SEE A FEW INCHES WILL STILL EXPERIENCE                      
SIGNIFICANTLY REDUCED VISIBILITIES AT TIMES GIVEN THE POTENTIAL                 
FOR BLOWING SNOW.                                                               
RIDGING WILL WORK INTO THE AREA BY MONDAY MORNING AND PERSIST INTO              
MONDAY NIGHT BEFORE RETURN FLOW SETS UP AGAIN LATE MONDAY NIGHT. A              
SHARP 500MB SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY               
WILL SWING THROUGH ON TUESDAY...BRINGING A CHANCE FOR SOME MORE                 
SNOWFALL...ALTHOUGH AT THIS POINT IT LOOKS LIKE THE WINDOW FOR                  
MOISTURE RETURN AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE SHOULD KEEP PCPN AMOUNTS                  
FAIRLY LOW. INCLUDED JUST CHANCE POPS TO HANDLE THINGS FOR                      
NOW...BUT THESE WILL LIKELY NEED TO GET BUMPED UP AS THE TIMING                 
BECOMES MORE CERTAIN.                                                           
IN THE WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY TIME FRAME...THERE WAS A FAIR                 
AMOUNT OF DISAGREEMENT AMONGST THE 00Z MODEL SOLUTIONS...AND                    
STAYED FAIRLY CLOSE TO THE HPC PREFERRED SOLUTION...WHICH                       
GENERALLY MIRRORED THE 00Z ECMWF. THE ECMWF KEPT THE BAROCLINIC                 
ZONE FAIRLY CLOSE TO THE AREA WEDNESDAY THROUGH                                 
THURSDAY...SUGGESTING THE NEED TO KEEP SOME CHANCE POPS IN THE                  
FORECAST THROUGH THAT TIME PERIOD. HOWEVER...IT DID BUILD ENOUGH                
RIDGING INTO THE STATE BY FRIDAY TO GO WITH A DRY FORECAST AT THAT              
POINT...BUT ITS DEVELOPMENT OF A SURFACE LOW AND ITS MOVEMENT BY                
TO OUR SOUTHEAST ON SATURDAY NECESSITATED THE MENTION OF A CHANCE               
OF SNOW AGAIN AT THAT POINT. THE 12Z ECMWF WAS A BIT MORE IN LINE               
WITH THE GFS...WHICH WOULD HAVE MORE IN THE WAY OF DRY WEATHER                  
THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD...SO LATER FORECASTS WILL LIKELY NEED TO                  
MAKE SOME ADJUSTMENTS AS THE THINGS MOVE CLOSER IN TIME.                        
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION.../18Z TAF ISSUANCE/                                                  
THE FIRST BATCH OF RAIN/SNOW WILL CONTINUE SHIFTING OFF TO THE                  
NORTH/EAST OF MOST TAF SITES THIS AFTERNOON. -SN WILL LINGER AT                 
THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD AT KRNH...WITH -RA EXPECTED TO CHANGE               
TO -SN AT KEAU BETWEEN 19Z AND 21Z. ATTENDANT MVFR CEILINGS WILL                
GRADUALLY SCATTER OUT AND IMPROVE TO THE VFR CATEGORY THIS                      
AFTERNOON AT KSTC/KMSP...BUT PERSIST AT KRNH THROUGH THE                        
AFTERNOON...AND AT KEAU THROUGH TONIGHT. LOW CLOUDS WILL BUILD                  
BACK INTO THE REMAINDER OF TAF SITES TONIGHT...AS MOISTURE WRAPS                
AROUND THE BACK SIDE OF THE LOW. SNOW SHOWERS WILL PERSIST AT KEAU              
OVERNIGHT...AND WORK BACK WESTWARD TOWARD KRNH/KMSP ON SUNDAY                   
MORNING.                                                                        
&&                                                                              
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
MN...NONE.                                                                      
WI...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST SUNDAY NIGHT FOR BARRON-           
     CHIPPEWA-DUNN-EAU CLAIRE-PEPIN-POLK-RUSK.                                  
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</pre> mn                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS                                             
1250 PM CST SAT DEC 22 2007                                                     
.MESOSCALE UPDATE...BAND OF STORMS ACROSS CENTRAL AR/WESTERN LA/SE              
TX HAS INTENSIFIED OVER THE LAST HOUR. AM GUESSING THAT THE RUC MAY             
BE UNDERESTIMATING THE AMOUNT OF ELEVATED INSTABILITY AVAILABLE                 
GIVEN THE STEADY INTENSIFICATION...MORE AGGRESSIVE NAM/GFS PROBABLY             
MORE REASONABLE. IN ANY EVENT...EXPECT THAT CONTINUED STRONG                    
THERMAL/MOIST ADVECTION JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP            
STORMS GOING AS THEY MOVE INTO THE WESTERN PART OF OUR AREA IN A                
COUPLE OF HOURS. LARGE BREAKS IN THE LOW CLOUDS HAVE EXPANDED ACROSS            
NE LA AND WESTERN MS...AND INSOLATION SHOULD WARM THE BOUNDARY LAYER            
AND ENHANCE THE POSSIBILITY OF STRONG CONVECTIVE WINDS MAKING IT                
DOWN TO THE SURFACE. STILL EXPECT THAT THE GREATEST RISK OF ANY                 
SEVERE STORMS WILL BE WEST OF I-55 BETWEEN 3 AND 9 PM...AND THAT                
DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREAT. SPC HAS ISSUED A                     
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION FOR THIS AREA...AND A SVR TSTM WATCH MAY COME              
OUT IN THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO FOR THIS AREA.                                      
THANKS AGAIN TO SPC FOR ADDITIONAL COORDINATION.                                
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...EXPECT AT LEAST BKN LOW CLOUDS AT MOST LOCATIONS THROUGH            
THE AFTERNOON WITH A MAINTENANCE OF GENERALLY MVFR CONDITIONS.                  
OCCASIONAL SCT CONDITIONS COULD OCCUR THOUGH AS LARGE BREAKS                    
CURRENTLY ON SATELLITE IN WRN MS. WILL TIME SHRA/TSRA THREAT IN TAFS            
BASED ON EXPECTED TIMING OF CONVECTIVE LINE. CLOUDS WILL LINGER                 
TONIGHT AFTER FROPA...BUT EXPECT RAPID CLEARING BY SUN AM.                      
&&                                                                              
.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
MS...LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 AM CST SUNDAY FOR MSZ018-          
     019-025>038-040>044-047>049-053-059-060.                                   
LA...LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 AM CST SUNDAY FOR                  
     LAZ007>009-015-016-023>026.                                                
AR...LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 AM CST SUNDAY FOR ARZ074-          
     075.                                                                       
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
08                                                                              
</pre> ms                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM                                         
1220 PM MST SAT DEC 22 2007                                                     
.UPDATE...                                                                      
CANCELLED ALL WINTER STORM WARNINGS AND WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES               
FOR THIS PM. ADJUSTED POPS...SKY COVER AND WINDS AS WELL. 40                    
&&                                                                              
.PREV UPDATE...906 AM MST SAT DEC 22 2007                                       
REMOVED THE HIGH WIND WARNING HEADLINE FROM THE NORTHEAST HIGHLANDS             
AND LOWERED ALL WINDS SPEEDS A NOTCH ACROSS NE NEW MEXICO. 40                   
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION...259 AM MST SAT DEC 22 2007                                   
LATEST WATER VAPOR LOOP EARLY THIS MORNING SHOWS AN IMPRESSIVE UPPER            
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE NE PLAINS WITH A DISTINCT COMMA HEAD AND           
DRY SLOT FEATURE. RADAR TRENDS SHOW SNOW IS HOLDING STEADY OVER THE             
NORTHERN MTNS WITH CLEARING FARTHER TO THE WEST AND SOUTH...AND HEAVY           
SNOW ALONG THE INTERSTATE 40 CORRIDOR FROM SANTA ROSA EAST TO KTCC.             
WINDS ARE ALSO HOWELING OUT OF THE NORTH AT 30 TO 40 MPH CREATING               
VERY HAZARDOUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS IN MUCH OF THE NE PART OF THE CWA              
NORTH OF A FORT SUMNER TO CLOVIS LINE. WILL INCLUDE ADV LEVEL WINDS             
WITH THE WINTER HAZARD PRODUCTS. IR SAT SHOWS CLEARING OVER THE                 
WESTERN HALF OF THE STATE WITH THE BACK EDGE OF THE COMMA HEAD                  
NEARLY STATIONARY FROM CUBA SE TO KSAF. WILL CANCEL WARNINGS AND                
ADVISORIES THAT WERE TO EXPIRE AT 600 AM. WARNINGS WILL CONTINUE IN             
THE EAST WITH ANOTHER 1 TO 3 INCHES ESPECIALLY ALONG INTERSTATE 40              
NEAR KTCC. ADVISORY TO THE SOUTH WILL ALSO STAY INTACT MAINLY FOR               
THE BLOWING SNOW HAZARD APPROACHING FROM THE NORTH. EXPECT CLEARING             
IN THE EAST AFTER 18Z AS INDICATED BY RUC13 SO DAY SHIFT MAY                    
CONSIDER DROPPING ADVISORY IN THE SE AT THAT TIME. THINK WARNINGS               
WILL CONTINUE UNTIL 600 PM IN THE NE DUE TO EXTREMELY HAZARDOUS                 
TRAVEL CONDITIONS.                                                              
VERY COLD NIGHT EXPECTED ACROSS THE CWA...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS WITH              
SNOWPACK. SUNDAY WILL BE VERY NICE EARLY IN THE DAY WITH INCREASING             
CLOUDS OVER THE NORTH. NEXT SYSTEM WILL MOVE QUICKLY SE ACROSS THE              
SANGRES AND NE PLAINS SUNDAY NIGHT WITH ADVISORY LEVEL SNOWS POSSIBLE           
OVER THE SANGRES SIMPLY DUE TO VERY HIGH SNOW RATIOS. COLD WEATHER              
CONTINUES MONDAY ACROSS THE REGION DESPITE MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. 00Z              
MODELS ARE BEGINNING TO CHANGE THEIR TUNE ON WEATHER PATTERN FOR                
CHRISTMAS INTO THE NEW YEAR WITH SYSTEMS PASSING FARTHER TO THE NORTH           
THAN PREVIOUS RUNS. THIS STILL MEANS POSSIBLE SIGNIFICANT WINTER                
STORMS FOR THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS AND NE PLAINS HOWEVER THE SOUTH               
AND WEST MAY ESCAPE WITH GLANCING BLOWS. TWEAKED EXTENDED GRIDS TO              
ADJUST POPS SLIGHTLY FARTHER NE HOWEVER WILL WAIT FOR A MORE                    
CONSISTENT TREND TO APPEAR.                                                     
GUYER                                                                           
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
OCCASIONAL IFR CONDITIONS IN SNOW...BLOWING SNOW AND FREEZING FOG TO            
PERSIST FROM KSAF NORTHEAST AND EASTWARD TO THE TEXAS AND COLORADO              
BORDER THROUGH MIDDAY. LOCAL MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION ALONG AND WEST OF             
THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY EXPECTED THROUGH MIDDAY ALSO. NORTHWEST                   
SURFACE WIND TO INCREASE AT KFMN...WITH NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS                
GUSTING TO AROUND 35 OR 40 KTS ALONG AND EAST OF CENTRAL MOUNTAIN               
CHAIN. WINDS SHOULD TAPER OFF LATE AFTERNOON.                                   
NEXT AVIATION DISCUSSION SCHEDULED FOR 22Z.                                     
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
FARMINGTON......................  35  14  38  16 /   0   0   5   5              
GALLUP..........................  35   6  40   6 /   0   0   0   0              
GRANTS..........................  35   7  41   9 /   5   0   0   0              
GLENWOOD........................  44  21  52  23 /   0   0   0   0              
CHAMA...........................  29  -4  32  -6 /   5   0  10  20              
LOS ALAMOS......................  34   8  37   5 /  10   0   5   5              
RED RIVER.......................  20   2  31   5 /  20   0  10  40              
TAOS............................  33   4  38   6 /  20   0   5  20              
SANTA FE........................  32  11  36   8 /  20   0   5   5              
SANTA FE AIRPORT................  36  12  39  16 /  20   0   5   5              
ESPANOLA........................  40  10  42  17 /  20   0   5   5              
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS.............  42  20  43  24 /  10   0   0   0              
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY..............  44  16  45  20 /  10   0   0   0              
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS...........  42  16  41  20 /  20   0   0   0              
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA...........  43  18  44  23 /  10   0   0   0              
SOCORRO.........................  45  19  48  24 /   5   0   0   0              
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST.........  37  12  38  14 /  20   0   5   0              
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA...............  37  17  40  19 /  30   0   0   0              
CARRIZOZO.......................  39  20  42  21 /  20   0   0   0              
RUIDOSO.........................  32  17  40  17 /  20   0   0   0              
RATON...........................  32   8  40  11 /  30   0   5  20              
LAS VEGAS.......................  31  14  38  13 /  50   0   5  20              
ROY.............................  35  16  37  15 /  60   0   5  20              
CLAYTON.........................  33  14  40  18 /  60   0   0  20              
SANTA ROSA......................  42  16  43  20 /  60   0   0   5              
TUCUMCARI.......................  38  13  42  18 /  60   0   0  20              
FORT SUMNER.....................  43  19  50  20 /  60   0   0   0              
CLOVIS..........................  37  19  48  21 /  70   0   0   0              
PORTALES........................  39  19  48  20 /  70   0   0   0              
ROSWELL.........................  48  22  52  25 /  30   0   0   0              
&&                                                                              
.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM MST THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE                      
FOLLOWING ZONES...NMZ002>007-010>013.                                           
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM MST THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE                   
FOLLOWING ZONES...NMZ016>021-026.                                               
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
GUYER/99                                                                        
</pre> nm                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX                                            
1129 AM CST SAT DEC 22 2007                                                     
.AVIATION...                                                                    
IT APPEARS THAT THE SNOW HAS PUSHED THROUGH ALL THE TAF SITES...                
HAVING JUST ENDED AT KAMA. COULD STILL SEE A FEW BANDS OF SNOW MOVE             
ACROSS THE KAMA TAF THROUGH 20Z AND HAVE PLACED THIS IN A TEMPO GROUP.          
BIGGEST PROBLEM WILL BE THE STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS PERSISTING THROUGH           
THE AFTERNOON. HAVE DECIDED TO KEEP 4SM BLSN AT KAMA TAF SITE                   
PREVAILING THROUGH 22Z AS STRONG WINDS LOFT SNOW THAT HAS FALLEN.               
MORE THAN LIKELY...VISIBILITIES WILL REMAIN AT OR ABOVE 6SM THROUGH             
THE AFTERNOON.                                                                  
SKIES WILL CONTINUE TO CLEAR FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST THROUGH THIS           
AFTENROON WITH VFR CONDITIONS BY 22Z.  WINDS WILL SLOW DOWN TO LIGHT            
AND VARIABLE AFTER SUNSET AS WELL.                                              
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 552 AM CST SAT DEC 22 2007/                         
AVIATION...                                                                     
WINTRY WEATHER WILL MAINTAIN IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS DURING THE MORNING             
HOURS AS THE TRAILING EDGE OF THE EXITING LOW PRESSURE                          
SYSTEM PRODUCING SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW. THOUGH THE SNOW SHOULD END BY           
MIDDAY OVER KAMA...KDHT AND KGUY...STRONG WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO              
THE AFTERNOON. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD RETURN BY LATE AFTERNOON.                  
NUNEZ                                                                           
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 442 AM CST SAT DEC 22 2007/                          
DISCUSSION...                                                                   
MAIN FORECAST CONCERN DEALS WITH THE SHORT TERM DETAILS WHICH                   
INCLUDES PRECIP TIMING AND WINDS.                                               
CURRENT WV IMAGERY WITH RUC UPPER AIR ANALYSIS OVERLAY SHOW A                   
VIGOROUS UPPER TROUGH OVER NEW MEXICO. A 120 KT JET WAS PUNCHING                
INTO THE BASE OF THE TROUGH...WHICH WILL ACT TO ACCELERATE IT                   
NORTHEAST TO THE GREAT LAKES BY SUN. CURRENT RADAR SHOWS AN AREA OF             
MIXED PRECIPITATION SPREADING INTO PORTIONS OF THE PANHANDLES. WITH             
SFC TEMPS HOVERING NEAR OR BELOW FREEZING...EXPECT A CHANGE OVER TO             
ALL SNOW SOON.                                                                  
FOR TODAY...THE UPPER TROUGH WILL QUICKLY MOVE ACROSS THE TEXAS                 
PANHANDLE. STRONG UPPER DYNAMICS WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE PANHANDLES              
THIS MORNING...SO EXPECT THE HEAVIEST SNOWFALL TO OCCUR THEN.                   
ONE CAVEAT TO THIS IS THAT SFC WINDS DO NOT HAVE MUCH OF AN UPSLOPE             
COMPONENT WHICH WOULD LIMIT THE AMOUNT OF LLVL MOISTURE.                        
IRREGARDLESS...FCST SOUNDINGS INDICATE FAIRLY SATURATED PROFILES                
WITH TEMPS BELOW FREEZING THROUGHOUT THE COLUMN SO PRECIP THIS                  
MORNING SHOULD BE ALL SNOW. SINCE THIS IS A PROGRESSIVE SYSTEM...               
SNOW WILL END FROM WEST TO EAST AND ADJUSTED POPS TO END THE TIMING             
OF THE SNOW SOONER ACROSS THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. STILL                
EXPECT THE GREATEST ACCUMULATIONS IN THE OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE WHERE               
CLOSE TO 4 INCHES IS POSSIBLE. GIVEN THIS...CONTINUED THE SNOW AND              
BLOWING SNOW ADVISORY WHICH EXPIRES THIS EVENING. IN ADDITION TO                
PRECIP...STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE TODAY BEFORE                      
DIMINISHING TONIGHT. CURRENT OBS ALREADY SHOW SPEEDS IN EXCESS OF 30            
KTS IN THE FAR NORTHWEST PORTION OF THE PANHANDLES AND THE TUCUMCARI            
PROFILER SHOWS WINDS OF 35 KTS AROUND 900 MB. WITH STRONG CAA AND               
PRESSURE RISES ON THE ORDER OF 5 MB...SEE NO REASON WHY THE CWA WILL            
NOT SEE ADVISORY CRITERIA WINDS SO HOISTED A WIND ADVISORY FOR THE              
ENTIRE CWA THROUGH 6 PM THIS EVENING. SKIES WILL RAPIDLY CLEAR                  
TONIGHT AND WITH DIMINISHING WINDS AND AN ANTICIPATED FRESH SNOW                
PACK...WENT SLIGHTLY UNDER MOS GUIDANCE FOR TEMPS TONIGHT...WITH LOWS           
MAINLY IN THE TEENS.                                                            
MODELS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE A PROGRESSIVE WEATHER PATTERN AS SEVERAL           
UPPER TROUGHS MOVE ACROSS THE PLAINS. THE FIRST WILL DROP SOUTHEAST             
OUT OF THE INTER MOUNTAIN WEST AND MOVE ACROSS THE CWA SUN NIGHT AND            
MON. DID INCREASE POPS A BIT BUT STILL KEPT THEM SILENT AS ASCENT               
INCREASES AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH ALTHOUGH MID AND                
UPPER MOISTURE REMAINS LIMITED.                                                 
ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH IS PROGGED TO DROP SOUTHEAST ON CHRISTMAS DAY              
AND CROSS THE PANHANDLES THAT NIGHT. THIS SYSTEM LOOKS TO TAP INTO              
MORE MOISTURE SO MAINTAINED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS. DID PUSH BACK                   
THE TIMING OF PRECIP TO THAT EVENING AS SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT AND                 
MOISTURE LOOKS TO BE MAXIMIZED THEN.                                            
FINAL TROUGH WILL ALSO DROP SOUTHEAST AND MOVE ACROSS THE CENTRAL               
PLAINS THU. THE OPERATIONAL GFS IS MORE PROGRESSIVE THAN ENSEMBLES              
SO KEPT THE DRY FCST INTACT. AS FOR TEMPS...GENERALLY FOLLOWED                  
MEXMOS GUIDANCE WITH TEMPS GENERALLY RUNNING BELOW AVERAGE.                     
CLK                                                                             
AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                              
TX...SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR           
     THE FOLLOWING ZONES: ARMSTRONG...CARSON...COLLINGSWORTH...                 
     DALLAM...DEAF SMITH...DONLEY...GRAY...HANSFORD...HARTLEY...                
     HEMPHILL...HUTCHINSON...LIPSCOMB...MOORE...OCHILTREE...                    
     OLDHAM...POTTER...RANDALL...ROBERTS...SHERMAN...WHEELER.                   
     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE FOLLOWING              
     ZONES: ARMSTRONG...CARSON...COLLINGSWORTH...DALLAM...DEAF                  
     SMITH...DONLEY...GRAY...HANSFORD...HARTLEY...HEMPHILL...                   
     HUTCHINSON...LIPSCOMB...MOORE...OCHILTREE...OLDHAM...                      
     POTTER...RANDALL...ROBERTS...SHERMAN...WHEELER.                            
OK...SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR           
     THE FOLLOWING ZONES: BEAVER...CIMARRON...TEXAS.                            
     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE FOLLOWING              
     ZONES: BEAVER...CIMARRON...TEXAS.                                          
$$                                                                              
</pre> tx                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX                                      
1107 AM CST SAT DEC 22 2007                                                     
.UPDATE...                                                                      
AREA OBSERVATIONS ACROSS THE GUADALUPE AND DAVIS MOUNTAINS SHOW                 
HIGH WINDS HAVE COME TO AN END. HOWEVER...WINDS OVER THE HIGHER                 
ELEVATIONS OF THE DAVIS MOUNTAINS CONTINUE TO REMAIN GUSTY. WE                  
HAVE ALLOWED THE HIGH WIND WARNING TO EXPIRE...AND HAVE OPTED TO                
ISSUE A WIND ADVISORY FOR THE THE DAVIS MOUNTAINS THROUGH 00Z. NO               
CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE TO THE WIND ADVISORY ACROSS THE EASTERN                  
PERMIAN BASIN AND WESTERN LOW ROLLING PLAINS. OTHERWISE...MINOR                 
CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE WIND AND DEW POINT GRIDS.                              
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 627 AM CST SAT DEC 22 2007/                         
UPDATE...                                                                       
WENT AHEAD AND ISSUED A WIND ADVISORY FOR THE EASTERN PERMIAN                   
BASIN. LATEST RUC SHOWING WINDS 5 TO 10 KTS HIGHER THAN EITHER THE              
GFS AND NAM ARE SHOWING. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS TO THE NORTH ARE                  
SHOWING MINIMAL ADVISORY CONDITIONS A THE MOMENT...HOWEVER STRONG               
DOWNWARD FORCING IN THE WAKE OF THE UPPER LOW AND CLEAR SKIES WILL              
ALLOW FOR MAXIMUM POTENTIAL OF ELEVATED STRONG WINDS TO MIX TO THE              
SURFACE. THIS IS A TOUGH CALL WITH THE ADVISORY POSSIBLY NEEDING                
TO BE EXPANDED SOUTH AND WEST...BUT WANTED TO START OUT                         
HIGHLIGHTING THE AREA WITH THE HIGHEST POTENTIAL FIRST AND WILL                 
LET THE NEXT SHIFT MAKE THE DECISION TO FINE TUNE FURTHER.                      
HENNIG                                                                          
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 518 AM CST SAT DEC 22 2007/                          
AVIATION...                                                                     
WINDS WILL BE THE BIGGEST PROBLEM TODAY ACROSS AREA TAFS...                     
ALTHOUGH A FEW LOWER CLOUDS COULD ALSO MATERIALIZE ACROSS EASTERN               
TAF SITES LATER THIS MORNING. EXPECT WINDS TO SWITCH AROUND TO THE              
NORTH NEAR OR SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE AS THE COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO              
PUSH SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA. WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT HAVE BEEN 20KT              
WITH GUSTS TO GREATER THAN 30KT AT TIMES. THINK WINDS ACROSS THE                
AREA COULD FOLLOW THIS TREND THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WHEN WINDS                   
SHOULD BEGIN DYING DOWN. EXPECT NEAR CALM WINDS OVERNIGHT.                      
LOW CLOUDS WILL HAVE A CHANCE TO FORM ALONG AND NEAR THE FRONT                  
LATER THIS MORNING. WILL LIKELY ONLY BRIEFLY TOUCH MVFR CONDITIONS              
BEFORE QUICKLY GOING BACK TO VFR CONDITIONS AGAIN. THEN VFR                     
CONDITIONS WILL BE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT               
HOURS TONIGHT. /13/                                                             
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 329 AM CST SAT DEC 22 2007/                          
DISCUSSION...                                                                   
COLD FRONT HAS MOVED THROUGH THE TEXAS PANHANDLE AND WILL BE INTO               
THE NORTHERN PERMIAN BASIN NOT LONG AFTER SUNRISE. WINDS WILL                   
SHIFT AROUND TO THE NORTH BEHIND THE FRONT AND BECOME BREEZY TO                 
WINDY AS STRONG CAA DOMINATES IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING UPPER                
LEVEL LOW. WINDS ARE CURRENTLY GUSTING IN EXCESS OF 40 KTS BEHIND               
THE FRONT AND A WIND ADVISORY MAY NOT BE OUT OF THE QUESTION FOR                
TODAY BUT A WEAKER PRESSURE GRADIENT IN THE PB SHOULD PRECLUDE                  
ISSUANCE. WENT AHEAD AND LEFT POPS IN THE EXTREME NORTHERN                      
COUNTIES...BUT GIVEN THE PRONOUNCED DRY SLOT OVER THE CWA ON WV                 
IMAGERY...RAIN OR SNOW CHANCES SEEM PRETTY DISMAL.                              
ELSEWHERE IN THE SHORT TERM STRONG WINDS IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS               
ARE BEGINNING TO SUBSIDE AND THE HIGH WIND WARNING WILL MOST                    
LIKELY BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE...THOUGH WINDS IN THE DAVIS MOUNTAINS               
ARE STILL PRETTY HIGH AND WILL NEED TO BE CLOSELY WATCHED.                      
THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PACKAGE WILL BE A SERIES OF REPEAT                
PERFORMANCES AS ZONAL FLOW SENDS SEVERAL UPPER LEVEL LOWS ACROSS                
THE CENTRAL PLAINS WHICH IN TURN WILL GIVE US MULTIPLE COLD                     
FRONTAL PASSAGES. THIS FORECAST PACKAGE STAYED CLOSE TO THE GFS.                
THE 21/12Z ECMWF SEEMED TOO SLOW AND DEEP WITH THE UPPER                        
PATTERN...ESPECIALLY WITH REGARDS THE LOW SEEN APPROACHING AROUND               
CHRISTMAS. WE SHOULD SEE SEVERAL SHOTS OF COOL AIR BUT WE ARE NOT               
GOING TO BE ABLE TO TAP INTO ANY ARCTIC AIR SO THE TEMPS WILL BE                
QUICK TO REBOUND. CHRISTMAS PROMISES TO BE A NICE DAY WITH DRY                  
WEATHER AND NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.                                  
HENNIG                                                                          
&&                                                                              
.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
NM...NONE.                                                                      
TX...WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON           
     FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...BORDEN...DAVIS/APACHE MOUNTAINS                  
     AREA...DAWSON...GLASSCOCK...HOWARD...MARTIN...MIDLAND...                   
     MITCHELL...REAGAN...SCURRY...UPTON.                                        
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
76/99                                                                           
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