FXUS04 KWBC 161854
QPFPFD
 
QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
154 PM EST MON FEB 16 2004
 
PRELIM DAY 1 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID FEB 17/0000 UTC THRU FEB 18/0000 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR
 

DAY1...

...WRN U.S....

ALTHO THE MDLS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT IT WL CONT TO BE WET FM
CNTRL CA NWD THRU WA AND INTO THE NRN/CNTRL GT BASIN THIS
PD..THERE IS LESS AGREEMENT AS TO WHERE THE HVIEST RAINS WL
OCCUR ON THE CST.    THE ETA MDL ALLOWS THE FNT TO MOV A LTL
FARTHER NWD INTO OR ON MON NGT/ERY TUE MRNG THAN DOES THE
GFS..AND AS A RESULT THE ETA HAS MORE RNFL ALG THE OR CST THAN
THE GFS HAS AND LESS RNFL IN NRN CA THAN THE GFS.   DON'T HAVE A
LOT OF CONFIDENCE AS TO WHICH SOLN IS MORE CORRECT..BUT BOTH
THE 12Z UKMET AND CANADIAN MDLS SIDE WITH THE GFS SOLN..SO
I'VE LEANED STGLY TWDS IT.    GIVEN THE QSTNRY FNTL BNDRY IN
PLACE..STG LOW LVL ONSHORE FLO CONTG..AND HI MSTR AVBLTY..WITH
PWS IN EXCESS OF 1 INCH..XPC THERE TO BE A LONG DURATION PD OF
HVY RNFL FM EXTRM SWRN OR INTO NRN CA..AND ESP SO IN THE CSTL
RANGES..SHASTA-SISKIYOU AND NRN SIERRA.    AGAIN..STGLY PREFER
THE GFS QPF IDEA..WITH THE LIKELIHOOD OF GTR THAN 3-4 INCH RNFL
TOTALS OVR THE FAVORED HIER TERRAIN..AND SOME ISOLD GTR THAN 5
INCH AMTS PSBL..WITH MORE WIDESPREAD 1.00 INCH RAINS LIKELY WRN
OR DOWN THRU THE RMNDR OF NRN CA.    LOOKS LIKE ENUF PROLONGED
SWLY FLO DVLPS OVR THE NRN GT BASIN..MAINLY LTR MON NGT THRU
TUE..TO SUPPORT SOME HVY PCPN TOTALS OVR THE MTNS OF CNTRL
ID..MORE IN LN WITH THE HVIER GFS QPF HERE ALSO.    


...SRN MID ATLC AND SERN CST...

THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY HERE..ESP JUST BYD THIS PD..ON
THE EXACT TRACK OF SFC LOW DVLPG OFF THE SERN CST.   THRU THIS
PD AT LEAST..DON'T LIKE THE ETA WITH ITS EXAGGERATED SFC INVERTED
TROF DVLPMNT UP THE MID ATLC CST..AND PREFER A SOLN CLOSER TO
THAT OF THE GFS..WHICH HAS ANY SFC DVLPMNT OCCURRING FARTHER S
AND E.   SINCE WE ARE JUST STARTING TO GET DVLPMNT TWDS THE END
OF THIS PD..WHICH INCLUDES SOME STRENGTHENING OF THE LOW LVL
ONSHORE FLO..PCPN AMTS..MSTLY RAIN..WON'T BE THAT HVY JUST
YET..WITH ONLY SOME GTR THAN 0.25 INCH TOTALS PROBABLE EXTRM
NERN SC INTO CSTL NC.   WENT CLOSER TO A GFS QPF SOLN
HERE..ALTHO I KEPT THE MORE SIGNIFICANT RAINS CLOSER TO THE CST
THAN THE GFS IS FCSTG..MORE IN LN WITH WHERE THE BEST ONSHORE
FLO EXISTS.

TERRY

GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT WWW.HPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV
 
24HR QP VT 18/00Z
 0.01 527252 525247 522245 520242 519238 519230 522225 527222 
      532214 537206 538202 538195 538186 536177 532170 528164 
      521158 514152 508147 502143 498136 497131 495127 491121 
      478112 471117 469119 466119 461119 458115 455106 453100 
      452097 449095 445095 441093 436094 432093 430092 428095 
      427100 423100 420103 419108 417118 415124 413131 411135 
      408137 401136 396137 393139 389142 387145 388151 391154 
      391159 388164 387167 386172 389178 389182 388186 374188 
      371191 370197 368204 358209 353215 352217 348230 343241 
      342256 350267 366274 396275 426272 442268 454265 471266 
      481272 495287 499288 504294 509295 511294 
 0.01 527072 527066 526058 523049 517045 508045 501050 497057 
      495061 495068 497078 500086 504089 508090 512090 517088 
      523082 526077 527072 
 0.01 510890 507875 503868 499862 492855 484847 478835 475829 
      472823 468820 465819 462822 459834 457839 453845 445853 
      443858 447860 451860 457861 460864 463873 464882 464885 
      461889 456897 454903 452910 452914 454917 457921 463923 
      467922 479920 485919 489919 493917 503911 506906 508900 
      510890 
 0.01 388754 387748 385741 378733 371727 363724 355724 350724 
      347727 338734 328740 310751 302755 292763 286767 277774 
      262787 238811 233816 231821 234825 238826 244826 254822 
      261817 269813 274811 279810 288811 293817 298825 301828 
      306828 310828 315829 319830 324828 329825 332822 346808 
      355805 362802 366800 370795 373792 376787 381780 385771 
      387762 388754 
 0.01 374842 372836 369835 361842 359844 354846 349848 343851 
      338855 336858 335863 338868 341869 344871 345874 348876 
      354874 362868 368859 373851 374842 
 0.01 374927 374922 372918 368914 362911 355909 350906 344903 
      337902 329905 324909 319914 315919 313922 313928 318933 
      320934 323939 323948 324952 327955 332957 340958 348955 
      353952 363941 372931 374927 
 0.25 519269 521264 520259 518253 511237 506231 502224 499218 
      494211 488207 480205 478203 478200 479193 482188 485186 
      490182 492180 493175 492166 488151 484145 479140 475138 
      471140 464141 458143 454146 450145 447141 443134 438131 
      434130 430131 428133 425137 424144 425152 425158 424162 
      424171 427177 426182 423189 418193 413196 407200 404201 
      401201 393198 387197 384196 381197 379199 378201 377205 
      377209 375212 373214 370216 366220 363224 362228 362233 
      364241 367247 373252 377254 385258 394260 405262 411262 
      418261 431257 442252 451247 456243 461238 469223 473219 
      475216 477217 481218 487222 490223 492227 494235 496243 
      495246 490246 488247 488251 493267 497275 502280 507281 
      512280 515275 519269 
 0.25 526198 525196 525193 523188 523187 521184 519182 518181 
      515179 513175 510174 507173 506174 507177 507179 509181 
      511184 512185 514189 515190 517192 519196 519197 522198 
      525199 526198 
 0.25 362768 361761 358755 354753 349753 344755 339759 329766 
      323773 319780 318790 317793 319798 322800 328798 334790 
      337788 342785 352780 357777 361772 362768 
 0.50 516267 516257 512251 508243 503237 499233 498229 497232 
      498236 502244 503249 503253 500261 500266 503271 508273 
      514271 516267 
 0.50 457219 455217 450214 438211 430207 425205 422205 421209 
      420213 418211 412208 406206 398202 387199 383200 381206 
      381215 378219 375221 371224 368230 369234 371239 373243 
      377247 386253 398256 409258 418256 425254 435250 441246 
      448237 457219 
 0.50 456185 459178 456172 454168 452161 447153 442142 439139 
      434140 432143 431152 432156 434163 440171 442177 442179 
      440185 440190 442197 445198 446195 451192 454189 456185 
 1.00 385245 390248 396251 404253 417252 425248 429244 432240 
      435236 439231 442226 440220 435218 430218 426220 425224 
      427228 426231 424231 421230 419227 418224 418220 417216 
      415214 412212 408210 403208 399206 395204 389204 386204 
      386206 390215 391219 388223 382228 380231 380237 381241 
      385245 
 1.00 445162 444158 444156 443153 441149 439147 438149 437152 
      438156 438157 440160 442161 443163 445162 
 1.50 392244 403249 412249 419247 422244 424239 423237 420233 
      418230 417227 417223 416219 414214 408213 403210 394206 
      393206 392209 394214 396218 397222 394225 388231 387235 
      388239 392244 
 2.00 394241 400244 406246 410246 415245 419242 419237 417234 
      415230 414225 415220 415217 413216 411215 406214 399211 
      397211 401218 402222 400227 395230 393232 391236 394241 
 3.00 408242 412241 414239 414236 413234 412231 412227 413221 
      413218 411217 410218 408220 406226 405228 400234 398239 
      400241 403243 406242 408242 
 4.00 409223 408225 409227 410226 411223 410220 409223  
 
8$$