AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO                                              
239 PM MDT THU AUG 10 2006                                                      
.SHORT TERM...                                                                  
(TONIGHT AND FRIDAY)                                                            
SHORT TERM CONCERN REMAINS PRECIP CHANCES.                                      
CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC UPPER AIR ANALYSIS HAS WEAK                 
WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE STATE ATTM...WITH GENERALLY FAST                 
ZONAL FLOW CONTINUING ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF STATES AND BROAD              
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS THROUGH THE                 
DESERT SW. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY ALSO INDICATING TAIL END OF EMBEDDED             
SHORT WAVE TROUGH LIFTING OUT ACROSS THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS WITH              
DRIER AIR MOVING ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL COLORADO ATTM.  AT THE              
SFC...A WEAK TROUGH IS LOCATED NEAR A SPRINGFIELD TO GARDEN CITY                
KANSAS LINE WITH 1-2MB 3HRLY PRESSURE RISES ASSOCIATED WITH PASSING             
NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS SYSTEM BEING REALIZED ACROSS NORTHWESTERN                  
KANSAS ATTM.                                                                    
TONIGHT...A DRIER AND MORE SUBSIDENT AIRMASS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE              
ACROSS THE REGION BEHIND THE PASSING NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS                       
SYSTEM...ALLOWING FOR THE CURRENT ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS            
ACROSS MAINLY THE HIGH TERRAIN OF THE CENTRAL AND SW MTS TO DIMINISH            
AFTER SUNSET. WITH SOME CU FORMING ALONG SFC TROUGH ACROSS THE FAR              
SOUTHERN PLAINS ATTM...ALONG WITH DEW PTS IN THE MID 50S PRODUCING              
CAPES BETWEEN 500-1000...HAVE KEPT CHANCE POPS THROUGH THE EARLY                
EVENING HOURS...WITH MAIN THREATS FROM ANY STORM BEING GUSTY WINDS              
TO NEAR 40 MPH AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN. POPS TO BE SHORT LIVED ON THE            
PLAINS AS WELL...WITH MUCH DRIER LOW LEVEL AIR FILTERING INTO THE               
REGION BEHIND WEAK BACKDOOR COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHEAST              
PLAINS WITH DEW PTS IN THE LOWER 30S TO LOWER 40S ATTM. WITH DRIER              
AIR IN PLACE...AND DECREASING CLOUDS THROUGH THE LATE EVENING...HAVE            
GONE AT OR BELOW THE COOLER SIDE OF GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES TONIGHT.              
FRIDAY...WEAK SOUTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPS ACROSS THE REGION AS NEXT PAC             
NW SYSTEM BEGINS TO MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN GREAT BASIN...WITH THE               
CURRENT MONSOONAL MOISTURE PLUME ACROSS CENTRAL NEW MEXICO AND                  
EASTERN ARIZONA FILTERING INTO EASTERN UTAH AND EXTREME WESTERN                 
COLORADO THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. WITH AMPLE SOLAR HEATING THROUGH THE            
MORNING...ALONG SOME INCREASE IN AVAILABLE MOISTURE AND STEEP LAPSES            
IN PLACE ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN...SHOULD SEE SOME CU BUILDING                
ACROSS THE MTS THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON AND HAVE KEPT ISOLATED               
POPS IN TACT FOR MAINLY THE HIGH TERRAIN. WITH THE AMPLE SUNSHINE               
AND WEAK SFC GRADIENT...WILL SEE BREEZY SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST UPSLOPE              
FLOW DEVELOP ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS FRIDAY AFTERNOON...WITH TEMPS            
AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES. -MW                                     
.LONG TERM...                                                                   
(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDDAY)                                                
...QUITE A FEW STORMS POSSIBLE THIS WEEKEND...                                  
METEOROLOGICAL VARIABLES STILL PAINTING A WET PICTURE FOR OUR REGION            
FOR THIS WEEKEND. BOTH WRF AND GFS SHOWING BOUNDARY STRUNG OUT NE-SW            
ACROSS PLAINS. MONSOON MOISTURE WILL ALSO BE OVER REGION AT SAME                
TIME AND I EXPECT A FEW WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL ALSO BE EMBEDDED IN               
THE SW FLOW ALOFT. WE MAY EVEN SEE A SVR STORM OR TWO AS CAPES WILL             
BE IN THE 1.0-1.5 J/KG CATEGORY AND SHEAR WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AS            
SW FLOW ALOFT WILL BE GRADUALLY INCREASING. WITH THIS IN MIND...HAVE            
KEPT/INCREASED POPS FOR PLAINS AND STARTED PRECIP EARLIER IN THE                
DAY...AND KEPT IT GOING LATER INTO THE NIGHT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE            
PLAINS.                                                                         
INTO NEXT WEEK...GFS STILL SHOWING IT WILL BE ON THE MOIST SIDE AS              
MONSOON STREAM STILL OVER THE REGION. LIKEWISE...SEE NO REASON TO               
CHANGE POPS GRIDDS...AND LEFT THE SCTD POPS IN PLACE.                           
TEMPS WILL START TRENDING DOWN A BIT WITH THE COOLER AND WETTER WX              
OVER THE REGION.                                                                
FLASH FLOOD POTENTIAL WILL BE ON THE INCREASE WITH THE INCREASING               
MSTR AND BOUNDARY OVER REGION. \/HODANISH                                       
&&                                                                              
.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
NONE.                                                                           
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
23/34                                                                           
</PRE></TT></td>   co                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL                                  
300 PM CDT THU AUG 10 2006                                                      
.DISCUSSION FOR MORNING GRIDS/ZONES...                                          
300 PM CDT                                                                      
WITH ACTIVE SEVERE WEATHER MUCH OF THE SHIFT...NOT A LOT OF TIME TO             
POUR OVER THE GUIDANCE.  THUS...NOT A LOT OF CHANGE TO THE GOING                
FORECAST.  FORTUNATELY...NOT A LOT OF CHANGE WAS REQUIRED TO THE                
INHERITED FORECAST FOR THE SHORT TERM.  HAVE ONLY TWEAKED THE                   
PCPN/POPS FOR THE NEXT 24HRS TO REFLECT A BETTER HANDLE ON THE                  
TIMING AND PATH OF INDIVIDUAL SHORT WAVES TRAVERSING THE HIGH                   
AMPLITUDE UPPER FLOW.  THE 12Z GFS RUN IS CONTAMINATED BY CONVECTIVE            
FEEDBACK AGAIN SO HAS LARGELY BEEN DISCARDED FOR THE SHORT                      
TERM...BUT THE NAM/WFF SEEMS TO AT LEAST HAVE A DECENT HANDLE ON 2              
SGFNT SHORT WAVES WHICH WILL IMPACT THE LOCAL WEATHER THROUGH                   
FRIDAY.  ONE SHORT WAVE...WELL INITIALIZED BY THE NAM AND SEEN IN               
THE SATELLITE IMAGERY OVER MINNESOTA WILL TRACK SEWD WHILE ANOTHER              
IS OVER IOWA.  THESE 2 WAVES...PARTICULARLY THE SRN MOST WAVE WILL              
KEEP PCPN CHANCES OVER THE CWA TONIGHT...AND HAVE UPPED POPS TO                 
LIKELY FOR THE SRN PORTIONS OF THE CWA.  THE NRN PORTIONS WILL BE               
MORE REMOVED FROM THE STRONGER DYNAMICS...BUT CONTINUED SCT SHRA                
ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT.  BUT SINCE THE AIRMASS IS WELL                  
WORKED OVER...DO NOT EXPECT MUCH THUNDER...BUT HAVE NOT REMOVED TS              
FROM THE GRIDS GIVEN RELATIVELY DECENT UPPER DYNAMICS.  FOR THE                 
LONGER TERM...HAVE CONTINUED THE TREND OF COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPS              
AS HIGH PRESSURE IN THE FORM OF A CONTINENTAL POLAR AIRMASS SETTLES             
OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND BUILDS OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST.  THIS SHOULD            
QUICKLY SHUT OFF ANY PCPN CHANCES AND TEMPS WILL ONLY REACH INTO THE            
UPPER 70S FOR MANY LOCATIONS ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.  BY SUNDAY...              
THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE OFF TO THE EAST AND A SLY RETURN FLOW              
WILL SET UP...AND TEMPS WILL QUICKLY RETURN TO MORE SUMMER-LIKE                 
LEVELS. BY MONDAY...AN UPPER TROF AND ASSOCIATED SFC FNT WILL                   
APPROACH THE REGION BRINGING THE NEXT CHANCE FOR SH/TSRA.                       
KREIN                                                                           
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION DISCUSSION REGARDING 18Z TAFS...                                      
105 PM CDT                                                                      
MAIN AVIATION FOCUS ON CIG/VIS TRENDS THROUGH TONIGHT...AS WELL AS              
LINGERING PRECIP POTENTIAL.                                                     
VIGOROUS MCS PUSHED SOUTH OF TERMINALS THIS MORNING...WITH LINGERING            
PATCHY WEAK CONVECTION AND STRATIFORM PCPN ACROSS IA/NRN IL/NRN IND             
EARLY THIS AFTN. PROFILER/WATER VAPOR DATA INDICATE SHORT WAVE                  
TROUGH ACROSS MN/IA...WHICH CONTINUES TO FORCE NEW SHRA DEVELOPMENT             
IN VERY MOIST LLVL AIRMASS ACROSS FCST AREA THIS AFTN. NAM/RUC MID              
LEVEL LAPSE RATES APPEAR MARGINAL FOR WIDESPREAD THUNDER THREAT...SO            
HAVE LIMITED MENTION TO -SHRA FOR THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS VARIOUS                 
TERMINALS. APPEARS GREATER TSRA THREAT WILL REMAIN SOUTH INTO                   
CNTRL/SRN IL WHERE INSTABILITY WILL BE SIGNIFICANTLY GREATER.                   
MODEL TIME SECTIONS INDICATE CONTINUED WEAK UVM THROUGH TONIGHT AS              
SHORT WAVE TROUGH SLOWLY TRANSLATES ACROSS FCST AREA. COULD BE                  
ADDITIONAL SPOTTY LIGHT PCPN...BUT GIVEN LACK OF WIDESPREAD PCPN                
FARTHER UPSTREAM ATTM WILL FOCUS MAINLY ON LOWER CIGS/VSBYS TNGT.               
WRF/NAM FCST SOUNDINGS AND TIME SECTIONS INDICATE LLVL MOISTURE                 
LINGERING WITH COOL NELY LOW LEVEL FLOW MAINTAINING HIGH RH.                    
STATISTICALLY GUIDANCE SUPPORTING MVFR CIGS THRU THE NGT...THOUGH               
SOUNDINGS SUGGEST POTENTIAL FOR CIGS BLO 1 KFT. FOR NOW WILL HINT               
WITH SCT008-010 FT LAYER AND BKN MVFR DECK AND 4-5SM VSBYS IN HZ/BR.            
DRIER LOW LEVEL ADVECTION FRI AS SFC HIGH BUILDS ACROSS LAKES SHOULD            
ALLOW IMPROVEMENT/SCT OF LOWER CIGS AND VSBY.                                   
AS FOR WINDS...SFC LOW PRESSURE PASSING ALONG FRONTAL BOUNDARY SOUTH            
OF TAF SITES THRU TNGT...AS SFC HIGH BUILDS SLOWLY SOUTHEAST FROM               
NORTHERN ONTARIO. THIS TO MAINTAIN PERIOD OF NELY FLOW WITH FCST                
SOUNDINGS INDICATING SOME GUSTINESS ESPECIALLY FRI IN 12-18KT RANGE.            
RATZER                                                                          
&&                                                                              
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
.IL...NONE.                                                                     
.IN...NONE.                                                                     
.LM...NONE.                                                                     
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</PRE></TT></td>   il                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL                                  
105 PM CDT THU AUG 10 2006                                                      
.DISCUSSION FOR MORNING GRIDS/ZONES...                                          
430 AM CDT                                                                      
WITH MODELS NOT VERIFYING ESPECIALLY WELL IN SHORT TERM AM RELYING              
MORE ON RADAR AND SATELLITE TRENDS FOR DETAILS OF TODAY/S                       
FORECAST...AND MODEL OUTPUT FOR SYNOPTIC SCALE GUIDANCE.                        
S/WV THAT LIFTED NEWRD FM CO WED HAS IGNITED LARGE TSRA CLUSTER IN              
ERN NEB...WHILE INCREASED SPEED CONVERGENCE AT NOSE OF LLVL JET                 
FORCING SCT TSRA DVLPMNT INTO E CNTRL IA AND NRN IL TO THE N OF THE             
SFC. WHILE TYPICAL DIURNAL DEC IN ACTIVITY ANTICIPATED AFT                      
SUNRISE...BAROCLINIC ZONE SHUD REMAIN ACTIVE WITH SIG CAPE IN PLACE             
ACROSS APPROX S HALF OF CWA WHERE SFC DWPTS ALREADY IN LO AND MID               
70S. EXPECT RENEWED TSRA DVLPMNT OVR ALL BUT FAR NERN CWA THIS                  
AFTERNOON AS S/WV TURNS SEWRD AND DROPS ACROSS NW AND E CNTRL IL                
LATER TODAY. CONTD CHC FOR TSRA AS S/WV OVR ND TRACKS SEWRD ACROSS              
UPR MIDWEST. FOR FRI SFC BNDRY FCST TO BE NR LWR OH VALLEY AND                  
ACROSS SRN IL AND ALLOWING ENUF DRYING I ANTICYCLONIC LLVL FLO TO               
PREVENT ANY PCPN EVEN THO ANOTHER S/WV FCST TO TRAVERSE REGION DURG             
THE DAY.                                                                        
TREND OF UPPER PATTERN REMAINS THE SAME THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO            
EARLY NEXT WEEK TROF DEEPENS OVER EASTERN CANADA AND NEW ENGLAND                
TODAY AND FRI WHILE RDG BUILDS ACROSS THE PLAINS AND S CENTRAL                  
CANADA AS TROF MOVES INTO B.C. AND PAC NW COAST. THIS ALLOWS SFC HI             
PRES RDG TO BUILD S FROM ONTARIO ACROSS THE GRTLKS AND MIDWEST FRI              
AND SAT. WESTERN UPR TROF EVENTUALLY MOVES INTO THE UPR MIDWEST AND             
WERSTERN GRTLKS DURG MON AND MON NITE WITH ASSOCIATED CDFNT DROPPING            
SEWRD THRU REGION WITH RETURN OF THREAT OF TSRA.                                
TRS                                                                             
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION DISCUSSION REGARDING 18Z TAFS...                                      
105 PM CDT                                                                      
MAIN AVIATION FOCUS ON CIG/VIS TRENDS THROUGH TONIGHT...AS WELL AS              
LINGERING PRECIP POTENTIAL.                                                     
VIGOROUS MCS PUSHED SOUTH OF TERMINALS THIS MORNING...WITH LINGERING            
PATCHY WEAK CONVECTION AND STRATIFORM PCPN ACROSS IA/NRN IL/NRN IND             
EARLY THIS AFTN. PROFILER/WATER VAPOR DATA INDICATE SHORT WAVE                  
TROUGH ACROSS MN/IA...WHICH CONTINUES TO FORCE NEW SHRA DEVELOPMENT             
IN VERY MOIST LLVL AIRMASS ACROSS FCST AREA THIS AFTN. NAM/RUC MID              
LEVEL LAPSE RATES APPEAR MARGINAL FOR WIDESPREAD THUNDER THREAT...SO            
HAVE LIMITED MENTION TO -SHRA FOR THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS VARIOUS                 
TERMINALS. APPEARS GREATER TSRA THREAT WILL REMAIN SOUTH INTO                   
CNTRL/SRN IL WHERE INSTABILITY WILL BE SIGNIFICANTLY GREATER.                   
MODEL TIME SECTIONS INDICATE CONTINUED WEAK UVM THROUGH TONIGHT AS              
SHORT WAVE TROUGH SLOWLY TRANSLATES ACROSS FCST AREA. COULD BE                  
ADDITIONAL SPOTTY LIGHT PCPN...BUT GIVEN LACK OF WIDESPREAD PCPN                
FARTHER UPSTREAM ATTM WILL FOCUS MAINLY ON LOWER CIGS/VSBYS TNGT.               
WRF/NAM FCST SOUNDINGS AND TIME SECTIONS INDICATE LLVL MOISTURE                 
LINGERING WITH COOL NELY LOW LEVEL FLOW MAINTAINING HIGH RH.                    
STATISTICALLY GUIDANCE SUPPORTING MVFR CIGS THRU THE NGT...THOUGH               
SOUNDINGS SUGGEST POTENTIAL FOR CIGS BLO 1 KFT. FOR NOW WILL HINT               
WITH SCT008-010 FT LAYER AND BKN MVFR DECK AND 4-5SM VSBYS IN HZ/BR.            
DRIER LOW LEVEL ADVECTION FRI AS SFC HIGH BUILDS ACROSS LAKES SHOULD            
ALLOW IMPROVEMENT/SCT OF LOWER CIGS AND VSBY.                                   
AS FOR WINDS...SFC LOW PRESSURE PASSING ALONG FRONTAL BOUNDARY SOUTH            
OF TAF SITES THRU TNGT...AS SFC HIGH BUILDS SLOWLY SOUTHEAST FROM               
NORTHERN ONTARIO. THIS TO MAINTAIN PERIOD OF NELY FLOW WITH FCST                
SOUNDINGS INDICATING SOME GUSTINESS ESPECIALLY FRI IN 12-18KT RANGE.            
RATZER                                                                          
&&                                                                              
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
.IL...NONE.                                                                     
.IN...NONE.                                                                     
.LM...NONE.                                                                     
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</PRE></TT></td>   il                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA                                          
1120 AM CDT THU AUG 10 2006                                                     
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
MCV NOW EXITING THE SOUTHEAST AND WILL BE DROPPING PRECIP MOST AREAS            
FOR THE AFTERNOON.  THOUGH RUC40 HAS REDEVELOPMENT AS EARLY AS LATE             
AFTERNOON...CURRENT FEELING IS THAT THE AIRMASS IS TOO WORKED OVER              
TO RECOVER THAT QUICKLY TODAY. HOWEVER...SOUTHERN AREAS MAY STILL               
SEE SOME ACTIVITY ALONG THE BORDER THOUGH NOT EXPECTING TOO MUCH.               
CURRENTLY TRACKING NEXT UPSTREAM WAVE IN COLORADO ON WATER VAPOR                
IMAGERY. IMPRESSIVE SYSTEM AND WITH CURRENT SPEED...SHOULD REACH                
WESTERN IA BY 0430Z. THUS...WOULD EXPECT TO SEE NEXT ROUND BEGINNING            
LATER THIS EVENING AS DYNAMICS INCREASE AT THAT TIME. HIGHS NOT                 
CHANGED FOR THE DAY AS CLOUD COVER BREAKING UP ATTM. SOME SLIGHT                
CONCERNS ABOUT ST NORTHWEST...BUT ELSEWHERE AM EXPECTING                        
DECENT...BUT FILTERED SUNSHINE ON THE WAY FOR REST OF DAY./REV                  
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...                                                         
ACTIVE WEATHER SO WILL KEEP DISCUSSION SHORT. WATCH JUST ISSUED FOR             
PORTIONS OF CNTRL/WC COUNTIES THRU 7 AM. MAIN THREAT FROM STORMS                
ROLLING OUT OF ERN NE WL BE WINDS. STORMS HAVE ALSO FIRED ALONG HWY             
20 CORRIDOR IN REGION OF MU CAPE MAX AND STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR.               
COULD SEE SOME LARGE HAIL EARLY THIS MORNING. FOR LATER TODAY AND               
THIS EVENING...HAVE EMPHASIZED POPS FOR SOUTHERN HALF. THE NAM IS               
STRONGLY SUGGESTING AN MCS TO ROLL OVER SRN IA WITH WIND/HEAVY RAIN             
THREAT. HAVE ADDED SLT CHC POPS IN FAR E ON FRI TO ACCT FOR NAM                 
SOLUTION WHICH LINGERS AN INVERTED TROF AND PRECIP ACRS MUCH OF CWA.            
THE GFS IS VIRTUALLY DRY. DAY SHIFT CAN RE-EVALUATE. IN THE LATER               
PERIODS...STILL FOLLOWING CONSISTENT ECMWF TIMING FOR PRECIP LATE               
SAT AND SUN. NO CHANGES DAYS 4-7.                                               
&&                                                                              
.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                        
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
KINNEY                                                                          
</PRE></TT></td>   ia                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS                                            
228 PM MDT THU AUG 10 2006                                                      
.DISCUSSION...16Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS VERY WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT                
ACROSS THE CWA...MAKING IDENTIFYING SFC FEATURES RATHER DIFFICULT.              
SFC TROUGH STRETCHES FROM SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA TO SOUTHEAST COLORADO.             
COLD FRONT WAS ALSO NOTED ENTERING THE WESTERN CWA...ALTHOUGH WITH              
DEWPOINTS FALLING INTO THE 40S BEHIND THE FRONT. WATER VAPOR ANALYSIS           
INDICATED SHORTWAVE TROUGH STRETCHING FROM SOUTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA TO            
NORTH CENTRAL COLORADO. RUC TROP PRESSURE ANALYSIS INDICATES A BIT              
STRONGER TROUGH ACROSS NORTHERN COLORADO WHICH IS LINING UP WELL                
WITH WEAK CIRCULATION OVER NORTHERN COLORADO.                                   
BOTH MODELS INITIALIZED FAIRLY WELL WITH GENERALLY SMALL ERRORS AROUND          
THE CWA. NAM DID INITIALIZE A BIT STRONGER WITH H5 TROUGH OVER                  
COLORADO...AND CURRENT WV IMAGERY SUPPORTS THIS SO WILL LEAN TOWARDS            
THE NAM IN THE NEAR PERIODS.                                                    
TONIGHT...PRIMARY CONCERN FOR TONIGHT WILL BE CONVECTIVE CHANCES                
EARLY IN THE EVENING. 12Z NAM...ALONG WITH DISTANCE SPEED ESTIMATES             
WOULD SUGGEST LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL BE EXITING THE CWA            
AROUND 00Z. TO FURTHER COMPLICATE THINGS...APPARENT GRAVITY WAVE                
SLIDING SOUTH ACROSS NEBRASKA ATTM...LEADING TO INCREASED                       
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT AND MAY SLOW DOWN TIMING OF SHORTWAVE               
TROUGH. WILL LET CONDITIONS DEVELOP BEFORE MAKING A FINAL                       
DESCSION...BUT REGARDLESS PRECIPITATION SHOULD END FAIRLY QUICKLY               
ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING. CONVECTIVE TEMPS ARE ALSO VERY WARM               
ACROSS THE AREA...WHICH MAY FURTHER INHIBIT CONVECTION.                         
NORTHEASTERLY FLOW AT THE SFC BRINGING INCREASING TD'S TO THE AREA              
AND CANT RULE OUT FOG FORMATION IN THE NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT.                     
TOMORROW...SHORT WAVE RIDGING WILL BE IN FULL EFFECT ACROSS THE CWA             
LEADING TO PLENTY OF WARMING AND DRYING ALOFT. ALTHOUGH TEMPS WILL              
WARM TO NEAR CONVECTIVE TEMPS AND WILL HAVE A WEAK UPSLOPE                      
FLOW...STRONG CAP SHOULD BE IN PLACE SO DO NOT EXPECT ANY CONVECTION.           
SATURDAY...H5 RIDGE AXIS WILL SHIFT TO THE EAST...ALLOWING FOR                  
ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROUGH TO SLIDE ACROSS THE AREA LATE IN THE                  
AFTERNOON. IN ADDITION TO LARGE SCALE ASCENT...TROUGH WILL ALSO HELP            
TO FOCUS SFC CONVERGENCE ACROSS THE NORTHWEST CWA PROVIDING A FOCUS             
FOR CONVECTIVE INITIATION. THINGS LOOK TO BE COMING TOGETHER PRETTY             
WELL FOR SAT AFTERNOON AND EVENING SO WILL INCREASE POPS ACROSS THE             
NORTHERN AND WESTERN CWA.                                                       
IN THE EXTENDED...MEDIUM RANGE MODELS BEGINNING TO COME INTO BETTER             
AGREEMENT WITH TIMING OF COLD FRONT ON SUNDAY EVENING...ALTHOUGH                
STILL ABOUT 12 HOURS DIFFERENCE BETWEEN GFS AND ECMWF...BUT GENERAL             
TREND IS FASTER. MADE LITTLE CHANGES TO GOING TEMPERATURE FORECAST              
AS EVERYTHING LOOKS TO BE IN GOOD SHAPE. FOR WX...WITH MODELS                   
BEGINNING TO LOCK INTO FRONTAL TIMING UPPED POPS FOR SUNDAY NIGHT.              
ALSO FRONT WILL NOT GET TO FAR SOUTH OF THE AREA BEFORE LIFTING                 
NORTH AGAIN AS A WARM FRONT...AND SHOULD SEE ANOTHER ROUND OF                   
CONVECTION ON MONDAY. AFTER THAT...H5 TROUGH MOVES INTO THE ROCKIES             
PLACING CWA IN INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. MOISTURE FIELDS                   
INDICATE FLOW ALOFT WONT BE TOO DRY...SO ADDED SOME LOW AFTERNOON               
AND EVENING POPS THROUGH MID WEEK.                                              
&&                                                                              
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
KS...NONE.                                                                      
NE...NONE.                                                                      
CO...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
JRM                                                                             
</PRE></TT></td>   ks                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY                                             
330 PM EDT THU AUG 10 2006                                                      
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
OUTFLOW FROM THE MCS OVER IA THIS MORNING IS NOW KICKING UP SOME VERY           
STRONG STORMS OVER SE IN. TOPS ON RADAR INDICATING OVER 60K WITH                
LITTLE INDICATION OF WEAKENING. TRACK OF STORMS WILL TAKE IT ACROSS             
ERN KY WITH IMPACT TO OCCUR AROUND 5 PM. WILL HAVE LIKELY POP TONIGHT           
AND FRI WITH THE PROGRESSION OF THIS SYSTEM AND THE FOLLOWING S/WV              
NOW OVER WRN IA. WAA HAS BOOSTED OUR HIGH TEMPS TODAY INTO THE UPPER            
80S N AND LOWER 90S SW. CLOUD COVER ON FRI WILL KEEP TEMPS DOWN                 
SLIGHTLY AND WILL ONLY FCST LOWER/MID 80S FOR FRI. HAVE GONE ABOVE              
MAV MOS FOR MOST OTHER TEMPS AS DRY AIR WILL KEEP DRY WX IN AREA AND            
DRY WX WILL HEAT UP BETTER. FOG IN VALLEYS AND RIDGE/VALLEY SPLIT TO            
MIN TEMPS LIKELY.                                                               
WEEKEND WX WILL FEATURE NO PCPN FROM SAT THRU MON AND TEMPS STARTING            
NEAR 80 AND BUILDING INTO THE UPPER 80S. NEXT SERIES OF S/WVS TO PUSH           
INTO ERN KY MON NITE THRU WED WITH CHC PCPN TO RETURN TO FCST AND               
THEN AS HIGH PRESS SHIFTS EAST TO NEW ENG NE FLOW WILL KEEP DRIER AND           
MORE STABLE AIR IN FCST. HAVE FOLLOWED GFS FOR THE LONG TERM FCST.              
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION...                                                             
1157 AM EDT THU AUG 10 2006                                                     
UPDATED THE ZONE PACKAGE THIS MORNING TO REFLECT MOST RECENT TRENDS             
CONCERNING THE REMNANTS OF AN MCS MOVING TOWARDS THE CENTRAL OHIO               
VALLEY THIS MORNING. IR SAT LOOPS SHOWING THIS SYSTEM REDEVELOPING              
TO THE EAST. CAN ALSO SEE DECENT COOLING OF CLOUD TOPS WITH THIS                
ACTIVITY. CORFIDI VECTORS WOULD SUGGEST THAT THIS FEATURE WILL RUSH             
SOUTHEASTWARD TODAY ALONG A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS              
OUR AREA. RUC ANALYSIS ALSO INDICATES A TONGUE OF INCREASINGLY                  
UNSTABLE AIR NOSING ITS WAY INTO EASTERN KENTUCKY...AT LEAST IN PART            
DUE TO THE LARGE AREA OF CLEARING TO OUR WEST. SINCE INGREDIENTS                
APPEAR TO BE COMING TOGETHER WENT AHEAD AND INCREASED POPS TO LIKELY            
FOR MUCH OF EASTERN KENTUCKY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING              
AS REMNANTS OF THE MCS PUSHES INTO THE AREA. SPC HAS ALSO PLACED                
EASTERN KENTUCKY IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER TODAY. FLOODING            
POTENTIAL WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE WITH HIGH PWS CLOSE TO 2 INCHES.               
HOWEVER...THREAT IS DIMINISHED SOMEWHAT WITH STEERING WINDS PICKING             
UP CONSIDERABLY THROUGH THE DAY.                                                
UPDATED ZONE PACKAGE ALREADY OUT.                                               
859 AM EDT THU AUG 10 2006                                                      
WILL ISSUE A QUICK UPDATE TO THE ZONES TO REMOVE THE DENSE FOG                  
ADVISORY. WHILE THERE ARE STILL A FEW SPOTS WITH PATCHY DENSE                   
FOG...COVERAGE IS NO LONGER EXTENSIVE ENOUGH TO WARRANT ANY                     
EXTENSION TO THE ADVISORY. HOWEVER...WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY MENTION             
OF PATCHY...LOCALLY DENSE FOG IN THE ZONES UNTIL MID MORNING UPDATE             
WHEN FOG WILL HAVE BURNED OFF.                                                  
UPDATE OUT SOON.                                                                
302 AM EDT THU AUG 10 2006                                                      
SOME DISAGREEMENT AMONGST MODELS...SO WENT WITH GFS SOLUTION ONCE               
AGAIN FOR CONSISTENCY. STATIONARY FRONT PROGGED TO MOVE EAST ACROSS             
FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING AS A WARM FRONT. WITH PLENTY OF MOISTURE             
IN PLACE...FRONTAL PASSAGE SHOULD TRIGGER SCATTERED SHOWERS AND                 
THUNDERSTORMS JUST AFTER SUNRISE. GFS TRIES TO BRING A COLD FRONT               
SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA LATER THIS AFTERNOON. SOME CONVECTIVE                 
ACTIVITY EXPECTED WITH THIS BOUNDARY AS WELL LATER THIS AFTERNOON               
AND EVENING. MET AND FWC POPS SEEMED A BIT LOW...ESPECIALLY                     
CONSIDERING THE FRONTAL PASSAGE THIS AFTERNOON AND THE MOISTURE IN              
PLACE AT SURFACE. WENT WITH HIGH CHANCE POPS FOR THIS                           
AFTERNOON...WHICH IS CLOSE TO WHAT THE MAV MOS HAS. THE BETTER                  
CHANCE FOR RAIN APPEARS TO BE FOR FRIDAY...AS A FRONTAL WAVE FORMS              
AND MOVES EASTWARD ALONG A STALLED OUT FRONT. WENT WELL ABOVE MOS               
GUIDANCE FOR FRIDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON. MODEL CROSS SECTIONS                 
INDICATING GOOD LIFT AND DEEP MOISTURE WILL BE IN PLACE AS FRONTAL              
WAVE TRAVERSES REGION.                                                          
TEMPERATURES WERE IN PRETTY GOOD SHAPE ALREADY. A FEW TWEAKS WERE               
MADE BASED UPON A BLEND OF MAV MOS AND MRF ENSEMBLE MOS NUMBERS.                
OVERALL THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST WAS IN GOOD SHAPE. WINDS WERE ALSO             
TWEAKED FOR FRIDAY...TO BETTER REFLECT PASSAGE OF WAVE ALONG                    
STALLED/SLOW MOVING FRONT...WHICH WILL POSSIBLY BE DRAPED ALONG THE             
KY/TN BORDER. DEWPOINTS WERE ALSO IN GOOD SHAPE AND WERE UNCHANGED.             
WEATHER GRIDS WERE ADJUSTED BASED UPON CHANGES MADE TO POP FORECAST.            
FOG HAS ALSO BECOME WIDESPREAD ACROSS FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING.               
CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING FOG             
FORMATION FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS...SO MADE SURE TO INCLUDE FOG IN THE            
WEATHER GRIDS FOR THE 6-13Z TIME FRAME THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING.                  
1040 PM EDT WED AUG 9 2006                                                      
PRECIP HAS ENDED AND POPS CAN BE LOWERED. HOWEVER...PREFER NOT TO               
TAKE IT BELOW CHANCE LEVEL. MODELS INDICATE WIND FLOW OFF THE                   
SURFACE TONIGHT PROVIDING WARM AIR ADVECTION IMPINGING ON THE                   
DIFFUSE FRONTAL BOUNDARY LEFT OVER THE REGION. CONCERNED THAT THERE             
COULD BE ENOUGH LIFT/DESTABILIZATION DUE TO THIS TO ALLOW SOME                  
SHOWERS/STORMS TO REDEVELOP OVERNIGHT. HAVE USED 30 PERCENT POP AREA            
WIDE.                                                                           
&&                                                                              
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                        
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
DUSTY                                                                           
</PRE></TT></td>   ky                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY                                             
1157 AM EDT THU AUG 10 2006                                                     
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
UPDATED THE ZONE PACKAGE THIS MORNING TO REFLECT MOST RECENT TRENDS             
CONCERNING THE REMNANTS OF AN MCS MOVING TOWARDS THE CENTRAL OHIO               
VALLEY THIS MORNING. IR SAT LOOPS SHOWING THIS SYSTEM REDEVELOPING              
TO THE EAST. CAN ALSO SEE DECENT COOLING OF CLOUD TOPS WITH THIS                
ACTIVITY. CORFIDI VECTORS WOULD SUGGEST THAT THIS FEATURE WILL RUSH             
SOUTHEASTWARD TODAY ALONG A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS              
OUR AREA. RUC ANALYSIS ALSO INDICATES A TONGUE OF INCREASINGLY                  
UNSTABLE AIR NOSING ITS WAY INTO EASTERN KENTUCKY...AT LEAST IN PART            
DUE TO THE LARGE AREA OF CLEARING TO OUR WEST. SINCE INGREDIENTS                
APPEAR TO BE COMING TOGETHER WENT AHEAD AND INCREASED POPS TO LIKELY            
FOR MUCH OF EASTERN KENTUCKY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING              
AS REMNANTS OF THE MCS PUSHES INTO THE AREA. SPC HAS ALSO PLACED                
EASTERN KENTUCKY IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER TODAY. FLOODING            
POTENTIAL WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE WITH HIGH PWS CLOSE TO 2 INCHES.               
HOWEVER...THREAT IS DIMINISHED SOMEWHAT WITH STEERING WINDS PICKING             
UP CONSIDERABLY THROUGH THE DAY.                                                
UPDATED ZONE PACKAGE ALREADY OUT.                                               
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION...                                                             
859 AM EDT THU AUG 10 2006                                                      
WILL ISSUE A QUICK UPDATE TO THE ZONES TO REMOVE THE DENSE FOG                  
ADVISORY. WHILE THERE ARE STILL A FEW SPOTS WITH PATCHY DENSE                   
FOG...COVERAGE IS NO LONGER EXTENSIVE ENOUGH TO WARRANT ANY                     
EXTENSION TO THE ADVISORY. HOWEVER...WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY MENTION             
OF PATCHY...LOCALLY DENSE FOG IN THE ZONES UNTIL MID MORNING UPDATE             
WHEN FOG WILL HAVE BURNED OFF.                                                  
UPDATE OUT SOON.                                                                
302 AM EDT THU AUG 10 2006                                                      
SOME DISAGREEMENT AMONGST MODELS...SO WENT WITH GFS SOLUTION ONCE               
AGAIN FOR CONSISTENCY. STATIONARY FRONT PROGGED TO MOVE EAST ACROSS             
FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING AS A WARM FRONT. WITH PLENTY OF MOISTURE             
IN PLACE...FRONTAL PASSAGE SHOULD TRIGGER SCATTERED SHOWERS AND                 
THUNDERSTORMS JUST AFTER SUNRISE. GFS TRIES TO BRING A COLD FRONT               
SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA LATER THIS AFTERNOON. SOME CONVECTIVE                 
ACTIVITY EXPECTED WITH THIS BOUNDARY AS WELL LATER THIS AFTERNOON               
AND EVENING. MET AND FWC POPS SEEMED A BIT LOW...ESPECIALLY                     
CONSIDERING THE FRONTAL PASSAGE THIS AFTERNOON AND THE MOISTURE IN              
PLACE AT SURFACE. WENT WITH HIGH CHANCE POPS FOR THIS                           
AFTERNOON...WHICH IS CLOSE TO WHAT THE MAV MOS HAS. THE BETTER                  
CHANCE FOR RAIN APPEARS TO BE FOR FRIDAY...AS A FRONTAL WAVE FORMS              
AND MOVES EASTWARD ALONG A STALLED OUT FRONT. WENT WELL ABOVE MOS               
GUIDANCE FOR FRIDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON. MODEL CROSS SECTIONS                 
INDICATING GOOD LIFT AND DEEP MOISTURE WILL BE IN PLACE AS FRONTAL              
WAVE TRAVERSES REGION.                                                          
TEMPERATURES WERE IN PRETTY GOOD SHAPE ALREADY. A FEW TWEAKS WERE               
MADE BASED UPON A BLEND OF MAV MOS AND MRF ENSEMBLE MOS NUMBERS.                
OVERALL THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST WAS IN GOOD SHAPE. WINDS WERE ALSO             
TWEAKED FOR FRIDAY...TO BETTER REFLECT PASSAGE OF WAVE ALONG                    
STALLED/SLOW MOVING FRONT...WHICH WILL POSSIBLY BE DRAPED ALONG THE             
KY/TN BORDER. DEWPOINTS WERE ALSO IN GOOD SHAPE AND WERE UNCHANGED.             
WEATHER GRIDS WERE ADJUSTED BASED UPON CHANGES MADE TO POP FORECAST.            
FOG HAS ALSO BECOME WIDESPREAD ACROSS FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING.               
CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING FOG             
FORMATION FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS...SO MADE SURE TO INCLUDE FOG IN THE            
WEATHER GRIDS FOR THE 6-13Z TIME FRAME THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING.                  
1040 PM EDT WED AUG 9 2006                                                      
PRECIP HAS ENDED AND POPS CAN BE LOWERED. HOWEVER...PREFER NOT TO               
TAKE IT BELOW CHANCE LEVEL. MODELS INDICATE WIND FLOW OFF THE                   
SURFACE TONIGHT PROVIDING WARM AIR ADVECTION IMPINGING ON THE                   
DIFFUSE FRONTAL BOUNDARY LEFT OVER THE REGION. CONCERNED THAT THERE             
COULD BE ENOUGH LIFT/DESTABILIZATION DUE TO THIS TO ALLOW SOME                  
SHOWERS/STORMS TO REDEVELOP OVERNIGHT. HAVE USED 30 PERCENT POP AREA            
WIDE.                                                                           
331 PM EDT WED AUG 9 2006                                                       
OUTFLOW BNDRY FROM MCS THAT CRUISED ACROSS SRN IN/CNTRL KY HAS                  
FINALLY MADE IT INTO ERN KY. PROGRESSION IS FAST ENUF TO KEEP PCPN              
TOTALS TO 1/2 IN OR LESS MOST PLACES AND NOWCASTING THE MVMT. CONCERN           
THAT THE OUTFLOW WILL SLOW WHEN IT HITS THE HIER TERRAIN OF OUR ERN             
MTNS. ANOTHER IN THE SERIES OF MCS IS WEAKENING AS IT MOVES INTO                
CNTRL IND. HAVE KEPT CHC POPS IN THE FCST WITH THE THREAT OF                    
ADDITIONAL PCPN FROM FOLLOW ON SYSTEMS. SFC CHART HAS WRM FNT FRM STL           
TO BNA TO ATL. MOISTURE POOLING ALONG/NORTH THE FNT PUSHES DWPTS INTO           
THE 70S.                                                                        
MODELS IN DISARRAY AND HAVE FOLLOWED THE ECMWF FOR BEST CONSISTENCY.            
GFS MIRRORS THE ECMWF FAIRLY WELL THIS RUN AND KEEPS THE E/W FNT                
ACROSS THE OH VLY THRU FRI WHEN A SLIGHTLY STRONGER S/WV DROPS OUT OF           
THE NRN ROCKIES TO PUSH IT FAR ENUF SOUTH TO ALLOW SOME DRIER AIR IN            
FOR THE WEEKEND. EARLY NEXT WEEK THE FNT RETURNS TO AREA AND BRINGS             
THE CHC OF PCPN WITH IT. TEMPS WILL RUN FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH HIGHS            
IN THE UPPER 80S AND LOWS IN THE MID 60S. EXPECT FOG EACH MORNING AND           
SHOULD SEE SOME EVEN INTO THE WEEKEND IN THE DEEPER RIVER VALLEYS.              
&&                                                                              
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                        
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
RAY                                                                             
</PRE></TT></td>   ky                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY                                             
859 AM EDT THU AUG 10 2006                                                      
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
WILL ISSUE A QUICK UPDATE TO THE ZONES TO REMOVE THE DENSE FOG                  
ADVISORY. WHILE THERE ARE STILL A FEW SPOTS WITH PATCHY DENSE                   
FOG...COVERAGE IS NO LONGER EXTENSIVE ENOUGH TO WARRANT ANY                     
EXTENSION TO THE ADVISORY. HOWEVER...WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY MENTION             
OF PATCHY...LOCALLY DENSE FOG IN THE ZONES UNTIL MID MORNING UPDATE             
WHEN FOG WILL HAVE BURNED OFF.                                                  
UPDATE OUT SOON.                                                                
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION...                                                             
302 AM EDT THU AUG 10 2006                                                      
SOME DISAGREEMENT AMONGST MODELS...SO WENT WITH GFS SOLUTION ONCE               
AGAIN FOR CONSISTENCY. STATIONARY FRONT PROGGED TO MOVE EAST ACROSS             
FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING AS A WARM FRONT. WITH PLENTY OF MOISTURE             
IN PLACE...FRONTAL PASSAGE SHOULD TRIGGER SCATTERED SHOWERS AND                 
THUNDERSTORMS JUST AFTER SUNRISE. GFS TRIES TO BRING A COLD FRONT               
SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA LATER THIS AFTERNOON. SOME CONVECTIVE                 
ACTIVITY EXPECTED WITH THIS BOUNDARY AS WELL LATER THIS AFTERNOON               
AND EVENING. MET AND FWC POPS SEEMED A BIT LOW...ESPECIALLY                     
CONSIDERING THE FRONTAL PASSAGE THIS AFTERNOON AND THE MOISTURE IN              
PLACE AT SURFACE. WENT WITH HIGH CHANCE POPS FOR THIS                           
AFTERNOON...WHICH IS CLOSE TO WHAT THE MAV MOS HAS. THE BETTER                  
CHANCE FOR RAIN APPEARS TO BE FOR FRIDAY...AS A FRONTAL WAVE FORMS              
AND MOVES EASTWARD ALONG A STALLED OUT FRONT. WENT WELL ABOVE MOS               
GUIDANCE FOR FRIDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON. MODEL CROSS SECTIONS                 
INDICATING GOOD LIFT AND DEEP MOISTURE WILL BE IN PLACE AS FRONTAL              
WAVE TRAVERSES REGION.                                                          
TEMPERATURES WERE IN PRETTY GOOD SHAPE ALREADY. A FEW TWEAKS WERE               
MADE BASED UPON A BLEND OF MAV MOS AND MRF ENSEMBLE MOS NUMBERS.                
OVERALL THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST WAS IN GOOD SHAPE. WINDS WERE ALSO             
TWEAKED FOR FRIDAY...TO BETTER REFLECT PASSAGE OF WAVE ALONG                    
STALLED/SLOW MOVING FRONT...WHICH WILL POSSIBLY BE DRAPED ALONG THE             
KY/TN BORDER. DEWPOINTS WERE ALSO IN GOOD SHAPE AND WERE UNCHANGED.             
WEATHER GRIDS WERE ADJUSTED BASED UPON CHANGES MADE TO POP FORECAST.            
FOG HAS ALSO BECOME WIDESPREAD ACROSS FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING.               
CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING FOG             
FORMATION FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS...SO MADE SURE TO INCLUDE FOG IN THE            
WEATHER GRIDS FOR THE 6-13Z TIME FRAME THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING.                  
1040 PM EDT WED AUG 9 2006                                                      
PRECIP HAS ENDED AND POPS CAN BE LOWERED. HOWEVER...PREFER NOT TO               
TAKE IT BELOW CHANCE LEVEL. MODELS INDICATE WIND FLOW OFF THE                   
SURFACE TONIGHT PROVIDING WARM AIR ADVECTION IMPINGING ON THE                   
DIFFUSE FRONTAL BOUNDARY LEFT OVER THE REGION. CONCERNED THAT THERE             
COULD BE ENOUGH LIFT/DESTABILIZATION DUE TO THIS TO ALLOW SOME                  
SHOWERS/STORMS TO REDEVELOP OVERNIGHT. HAVE USED 30 PERCENT POP AREA            
WIDE.                                                                           
331 PM EDT WED AUG 9 2006                                                       
OUTFLOW BNDRY FROM MCS THAT CRUISED ACROSS SRN IN/CNTRL KY HAS                  
FINALLY MADE IT INTO ERN KY. PROGRESSION IS FAST ENUF TO KEEP PCPN              
TOTALS TO 1/2 IN OR LESS MOST PLACES AND NOWCASTING THE MVMT. CONCERN           
THAT THE OUTFLOW WILL SLOW WHEN IT HITS THE HIER TERRAIN OF OUR ERN             
MTNS. ANOTHER IN THE SERIES OF MCS IS WEAKENING AS IT MOVES INTO                
CNTRL IND. HAVE KEPT CHC POPS IN THE FCST WITH THE THREAT OF                    
ADDITIONAL PCPN FROM FOLLOW ON SYSTEMS. SFC CHART HAS WRM FNT FRM STL           
TO BNA TO ATL. MOISTURE POOLING ALONG/NORTH THE FNT PUSHES DWPTS INTO           
THE 70S.                                                                        
MODELS IN DISARRAY AND HAVE FOLLOWED THE ECMWF FOR BEST CONSISTENCY.            
GFS MIRRORS THE ECMWF FAIRLY WELL THIS RUN AND KEEPS THE E/W FNT                
ACROSS THE OH VLY THRU FRI WHEN A SLIGHTLY STRONGER S/WV DROPS OUT OF           
THE NRN ROCKIES TO PUSH IT FAR ENUF SOUTH TO ALLOW SOME DRIER AIR IN            
FOR THE WEEKEND. EARLY NEXT WEEK THE FNT RETURNS TO AREA AND BRINGS             
THE CHC OF PCPN WITH IT. TEMPS WILL RUN FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH HIGHS            
IN THE UPPER 80S AND LOWS IN THE MID 60S. EXPECT FOG EACH MORNING AND           
SHOULD SEE SOME EVEN INTO THE WEEKEND IN THE DEEPER RIVER VALLEYS.              
956 AM EDT WED AUG 9 2006                                                       
12Z UPPER AIR ANALYSIS SHOWS 850 MB JET FROM TEXAS INTO SOUTHERN                
ILLINOIS. THIS IS SUPPORTING THE MCS OVER SOUTHERN INDIANA. WRF AND             
RUC BOTH SHOW WEAKENING OF THE 850 JET DURING THE DAY...THUS LESS               
SUPPORT FOR THE MCS. INDEED IR SATELLITE ALREADY SHOWING THAT TOPS              
ARE WARMING. AT THE SURFACE A FRONT STRETCHES FROM NORTHWEST                    
MISSOURI TO NORTHEAST TN. EVEN WITH THE MCS WEAKENING TREND FEEL                
THAT BOUNDARIES FROM THIS AND NEARNESS OF FRONT WILL WARRANT A                  
SLIGHT INCREASE IN POPS THIS AFTERNOON. PLAN TO INCREASE POPS 10 TO             
20 PERCENT...AND THESE POPS WILL BE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH                      
NEIGHBORING WFOS. DENSE FOG IS JUST NOW BEGINNING TO LIFT. WILL                 
UPDATE MORNING FORECAST SUITE WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR.                             
&&                                                                              
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                        
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
RAY                                                                             
</PRE></TT></td>   ky                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC                             
931 PM EDT THU AUG 10 2006                                                      
.SHORT TERM /REST OF TONIGHT/...                                                
18Z GFS AND 23Z RUC IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN SHOWING THE H5 TROUGH                  
AXIS EAST OF THE DELMARVA PENINSULA AND THE H85 TROUGH AXIS JUST                
WEST OF THE WESTERN SHORE OF THE CHESAPEAKE BAY AT 00Z. 00Z UPPER               
AIR ANALYSES CONCUR WITH THESE TWO MODEL PROJECTIONS. 00Z IAD                   
SOUNDING DEPICTS STRONG DRYING ALOFT BETWEEN H85 AND H5 HAS                     
OCCURRED BETWEEN 12Z THURSDAY AND 00Z FRIDAY. ONLY A FEW SHOWERS                
APPEARING ON RADAR ALONG THE COLD FRONT ADVANCING THROUGH SOUTHERN              
PA AND NORTH-CENTRAL WV AT 00Z. WEAK H5 VORTICITY AXIS ALOFT ABOVE              
THE COLD FRONT IS SHEARING OUT. COLD FRONT IS LOSING UPPER LEVEL                
SUPPORT AND MOVING INTO AN ATMOSPHERE THAT HAS BEEN DRYING                      
OUT...SO INCLUDED ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE CWA WITH THE               
FROPA THROUGH 08Z. FRONT SHOULD MOVE SOUTH OF CENTRAL VA AFTER                  
AFTER 08Z. DECAYING MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM TO THE WEST MAY                 
BRUSH THE SOUTHWESTERN HIGHLANDS OF THE CWA BETWEEN 08Z AND                     
12Z...BUT H85-H3 THICKNESSES SUGGEST THAT THIS SYSTEM WILL PASS TO              
THE SOUTHWEST. INCLUDED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR SHOWERS AND                      
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE SOUTHWESTERN HIGHLANDS FOR THIS                  
TIME PERIOD.                                                                    
SFC HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM BUILDS SOUTHWARD FROM PA/OH FRIDAY WITH                
DECENT CAA...AND BELOW NORMAL HIGHS LOOK ON TRACK. HIGH LEVEL                   
CLOUDS TRANSPORTED ACROSS THE REGION BY A STRONG H25 JET AHEAD OF               
A H5 SHORTWAVE ACROSS EASTERN TN/SOUTHERN WV WILL PRODUCE SCT TO                
BKN HIGH CIRRUS. COMBINATION OF CAA AND LESS INSOLATION WILL                    
RESULT IN HIGHS A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL BETWEEN 80 TO 85.                    
ZONE UPDATE WILL BE SENT WITHIN THE NEXT 15 MINUTES.                            
&&                                                                              
PREV DISCUSSION...                                                              
 /ISSUED 300 PM EDT THU AUG 10 2006/                                            
SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT/...                                           
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED LOTS OF CLOUDS PERSISTING OVER OUR             
CWA AT 18Z...WITH A FEW BREAKS MAKING THEIR WAY TOWARD OUR W/SW CWA.            
KLWX WSR-88D INDICATED SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUING EAST OF THE                 
BLUE...ALTHOUGH THUNDERSTORMS LACKED PRESENCE GIVEN THE CLOUDS AND              
SUBSEQUENT RELATIVE LACK OF SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY.                          
IF MORE BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS CAN WORK EAST OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF              
HOURS...ENOUGH INSTABILITY COULD BE ACHIEVED TO SUPPORT GENERAL                 
THUNDER. AT THE VERY LEAST...SOME HEATING WILL ALLOW ADDITIONAL                 
SHOWERS TO DEVELOP THROUGH THE EVENING...AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT TO               
OUR NORTHWEST ACROSS PA AND OH. THE RUC...NAM AND GFS ALSO AGREE ON             
ACTIVITY FOCUSING TOWARD THE DCA/BWI METROS THROUGH THIS EVENING                
BEFORE GETTING SQUASHED SOUTH TOWARD CENTRAL VA LATER TONIGHT. THIS             
JIVES WITH CURRENT RADAR TRENDS TOO...SO WILL HAVE THE HIGHEST POPS             
E/SE AND LOWEST POPS N/NW THROUGH TONIGHT.                                      
LATER TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY...THE FRONT WILL RESIDE TO OUR SOUTH IN               
SOUTHERN VA...BUT AM LEERY OF POTENTIAL UPSTREAM ACTIVITY (CONVECTIVE           
SYSTEM OR REMNANTS OF??) AFFECTING OUR CWA. THE GFS BRINGS PRECIP               
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF OUR CWA...WHILE THE NAM KEEPS US DRY.               
SIDED MORE TOWARD THE NAM...ONLY INCLUDING 30 POPS ACROSS THE                   
SOUTHWEST CORNER OF OUR CWA.                                                    
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...                                         
HIPRES BLDG FRI NGT SFC-H8. IN THE MID LVLS /H7-5/...CYCLONIC FLOW              
IN CNDN MARITIMES WL SLOWLY RLS GRIP. IN COMBO...XPCT MUCH DRIER AIR            
TO FILTER IN FM THE N...WHICH SHUD PUSH QSTNY BNDRY FRTHR S...AND               
ERODE NRN FRINGE OF CLD DECK. THINK QPF FIELD FM GFS CONTAMINATED BY            
CNVCTV FEEDBACK...AND WL BE GOING W/ DRY FCST.                                  
COLUMN REMAINS DRY /RH AOB 20 PCT/ H8-H4...SO ONCE WE LOSE DIURNAL              
HTG...IT WL BE REAL TUFF FOR CLDS. WL GO W/ FEW...THERE CUD ALWAYS              
BE SOME CI SINCE MSTR HIER ABV H4.                                              
CNTR OF HIPRES OHD BY SUN. SINCE SOURCE RGN OF AMS CNTRL CNDA...AND             
BURBS HAD MIN-T IN THE 50S YDA MRNG...SIDED W/ COOLER MAV TEMPS. WL             
SMOOTH OUT SOME OF THE XTRMS THO...                                             
HIPRES AT START OF XTNDD PD /MON/ WL BE SHOVED ASIDE BY CDFNT                   
EMBEDDED IN WLYS. FROPA TUE...W/ SCT SHRA/TSRA. CNDN HIPRES WL POWER            
BHD SYSTM...FOR CLR-N-DRY CONDS WED-THU. DID HANG ONTO SOME CLDS                
ACRS THE S WED PENDING SPD OF CDFNT...OTRW SCT CLDS AT MOST. TEMP               
DIFF AT END OF PD MORE NOTICIBLE AT NGT...DUE TO LWR DEWPTS.                    
AVIATION...                                                                     
SHOWERS HAVE KEPT MVFR OR IFR TYPE VSBYS/CIGS AT MANY TERMINALS                 
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. SIMILAR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE IN SHOWERS             
THROUGH LATER THIS EVENING...AND THEN AT LEAST SIMILAR VSBY CATS                
WILL OCCUR IN FOG LATER TONIGHT. LOW CLOUDS MAY ALSO FORM AND BE A              
PROBLEM...ALTHOUGH AM NOT AS CONFIDENT ON THIS LOW OF A DECK FORMING            
ATTM. VFR SHOULD PREVAIL BY 13Z.                                                
MARINE...                                                                       
ONVECTIVE ELEMENTS HAVE ALLOWED WINDS TO GUST AOA 18 KT AT TIMES AT             
SITES ON THE BAY/POTOMAC TODAY. OTHERWISE...10 TO 15 KT WIND HAVE               
OCCURRED. HOWEVER...A NORTHERLY WIND SURGE BEHIND A COLD FROPA WILL             
LEAD TO SCA WINDS OVER THE BAY BY FRIDAY MORNING...POSSIBLY LASTING             
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.                                                          
CORE OF THIS SURGE WL BE S OF THE WATERS /MD PORTION OF THE BAY-                
TDL PTMC/ BY FRI EVE. WL GO W/ STRAIGHT 15 KT...JUST BLO SCA CRIT.              
WNDS WL SUBSIDE FM THERE FRI NGT AND SAT AS HIPRES BUILDS.                      
&&                                                                              
.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
DC...NONE.                                                                      
MD...NONE.                                                                      
VA...NONE.                                                                      
WV...NONE.                                                                      
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ANZ530>534 FROM 6 AM FRIDAY TO 6 PM           
     FRIDAY.                                                                    
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHORT TERM...                                                                   
</PRE></TT></td>   md                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC                             
604 PM EDT THU AUG 10 2006                                                      
.SHORT TERM /REST OF TONIGHT/...                                                
UPDATED THE ZONE FORECAST TO REDUCE POPS ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA                  
DURING THE EVENING HOURS. 18Z NMM WRF AND 20Z RUC SHOW THE H5                   
TROUGH AXIS HAS MOVED TO THE EAST OF THE DELMARVA PENINSULA BY                  
22Z...AND RADAR AND SATELLITE TRENDS INDICATE THAT CLOUD AND RAIN               
COVERAGE HAS DECREASED RAPIDLY OVER THE PAST 3 HOURS. NMM WRF                   
BUFKIT SOUNDINGS DEPICT LAYER OF DRIER AIR BETWEEN H85 AND H5                   
MOVING ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC IN ADVANCE OF THE SFC COLD FRONT                 
WHICH WAS MOVING INTO SOUTHERN PA AT 21Z. THE LOBE OF H5 VORTICITY              
COINCIDENT WITH THE SFC COLD FRONT CONTINUED TO SHEAR OUT...SO                  
WILL INCLUDE ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE                   
FROPA...EXCEPT FOR LOW SCATTERED POPS ACROSS CENTRAL VA AND LOWER               
SOUTHERN MD...WHERE MORE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE PRESENT.                    
UPDATED ZONES SENT OUT AT 555 PM EDT.                                           
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION...                                                             
 /ISSUED 300 PM EDT THU AUG 10 2006/                                            
SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT/...                                           
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED LOTS OF CLOUDS PERSISTING OVER OUR             
CWA AT 18Z...WITH A FEW BREAKS MAKING THEIR WAY TOWARD OUR W/SW CWA.            
KLWX WSR-88D INDICATED SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUING EAST OF THE                 
BLUE...ALTHOUGH THUNDERSTORMS LACKED PRESENCE GIVEN THE CLOUDS AND              
SUBSEQUENT RELATIVE LACK OF SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY.                          
IF MORE BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS CAN WORK EAST OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF              
HOURS...ENOUGH INSTABILITY COULD BE ACHIEVED TO SUPPORT GENERAL                 
THUNDER. AT THE VERY LEAST...SOME HEATING WILL ALLOW ADDITIONAL                 
SHOWERS TO DEVELOP THROUGH THE EVENING...AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT TO               
OUR NORTHWEST ACROSS PA AND OH. THE RUC...NAM AND GFS ALSO AGREE ON             
ACTIVITY FOCUSING TOWARD THE DCA/BWI METROS THROUGH THIS EVENING                
BEFORE GETTING SQUASHED SOUTH TOWARD CENTRAL VA LATER TONIGHT. THIS             
JIVES WITH CURRENT RADAR TRENDS TOO...SO WILL HAVE THE HIGHEST POPS             
E/SE AND LOWEST POPS N/NW THROUGH TONIGHT.                                      
LATER TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY...THE FRONT WILL RESIDE TO OUR SOUTH IN               
SOUTHERN VA...BUT AM LEERY OF POTENTIAL UPSTREAM ACTIVITY (CONVECTIVE           
SYSTEM OR REMNANTS OF??) AFFECTING OUR CWA. THE GFS BRINGS PRECIP               
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF OUR CWA...WHILE THE NAM KEEPS US DRY.               
SIDED MORE TOWARD THE NAM...ONLY INCLUDING 30 POPS ACROSS THE                   
SOUTHWEST CORNER OF OUR CWA.                                                    
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...                                         
HIPRES BLDG FRI NGT SFC-H8. IN THE MID LVLS /H7-5/...CYCLONIC FLOW              
IN CNDN MARITIMES WL SLOWLY RLS GRIP. IN COMBO...XPCT MUCH DRIER AIR            
TO FILTER IN FM THE N...WHICH SHUD PUSH QSTNY BNDRY FRTHR S...AND               
ERODE NRN FRINGE OF CLD DECK. THINK QPF FIELD FM GFS CONTAMINATED BY            
CNVCTV FEEDBACK...AND WL BE GOING W/ DRY FCST.                                  
COLUMN REMAINS DRY /RH AOB 20 PCT/ H8-H4...SO ONCE WE LOSE DIURNAL              
HTG...IT WL BE REAL TUFF FOR CLDS. WL GO W/ FEW...THERE CUD ALWAYS              
BE SOME CI SINCE MSTR HIER ABV H4.                                              
CNTR OF HIPRES OHD BY SUN. SINCE SOURCE RGN OF AMS CNTRL CNDA...AND             
BURBS HAD MIN-T IN THE 50S YDA MRNG...SIDED W/ COOLER MAV TEMPS. WL             
SMOOTH OUT SOME OF THE XTRMS THO...                                             
HIPRES AT START OF XTNDD PD /MON/ WL BE SHOVED ASIDE BY CDFNT                   
EMBEDDED IN WLYS. FROPA TUE...W/ SCT SHRA/TSRA. CNDN HIPRES WL POWER            
BHD SYSTM...FOR CLR-N-DRY CONDS WED-THU. DID HANG ONTO SOME CLDS                
ACRS THE S WED PENDING SPD OF CDFNT...OTRW SCT CLDS AT MOST. TEMP               
DIFF AT END OF PD MORE NOTICIBLE AT NGT...DUE TO LWR DEWPTS.                    
AVIATION...                                                                     
SHOWERS HAVE KEPT MVFR OR IFR TYPE VSBYS/CIGS AT MANY TERMINALS                 
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. SIMILAR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE IN SHOWERS             
THROUGH LATER THIS EVENING...AND THEN AT LEAST SIMILAR VSBY CATS                
WILL OCCUR IN FOG LATER TONIGHT. LOW CLOUDS MAY ALSO FORM AND BE A              
PROBLEM...ALTHOUGH AM NOT AS CONFIDENT ON THIS LOW OF A DECK FORMING            
ATTM. VFR SHOULD PREVAIL BY 13Z.                                                
MARINE...                                                                       
ONVECTIVE ELEMENTS HAVE ALLOWED WINDS TO GUST AOA 18 KT AT TIMES AT             
SITES ON THE BAY/POTOMAC TODAY. OTHERWISE...10 TO 15 KT WIND HAVE               
OCCURRED. HOWEVER...A NORTHERLY WIND SURGE BEHIND A COLD FROPA WILL             
LEAD TO SCA WINDS OVER THE BAY BY FRIDAY MORNING...POSSIBLY LASTING             
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.                                                          
CORE OF THIS SURGE WL BE S OF THE WATERS /MD PORTION OF THE BAY-                
TDL PTMC/ BY FRI EVE. WL GO W/ STRAIGHT 15 KT...JUST BLO SCA CRIT.              
WNDS WL SUBSIDE FM THERE FRI NGT AND SAT AS HIPRES BUILDS.                      
&&                                                                              
.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
DC...NONE.                                                                      
MD...NONE.                                                                      
VA...NONE.                                                                      
WV...NONE.                                                                      
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ANZ530>534 FROM 6 AM FRIDAY TO 6 PM           
     FRIDAY.                                                                    
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHORT TERM...SMITH                                                              
</PRE></TT></td>   md                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC                             
300 PM EDT THU AUG 10 2006                                                      
.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT/...                                          
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED LOTS OF CLOUDS PERSISTING OVER OUR             
CWA AT 18Z...WITH A FEW BREAKS MAKING THEIR WAY TOWARD OUR W/SW CWA.            
KLWX WSR-88D INDICATED SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUING EAST OF THE                 
BLUE...ALTHOUGH THUNDERSTORMS LACKED PRESENCE GIVEN THE CLOUDS AND              
SUBSEQUENT RELATIVE LACK OF SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY.                          
IF MORE BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS CAN WORK EAST OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF              
HOURS...ENOUGH INSTABILITY COULD BE ACHIEVED TO SUPPORT GENERAL                 
THUNDER. AT THE VERY LEAST...SOME HEATING WILL ALLOW ADDITIONAL                 
SHOWERS TO DEVELOP THROUGH THE EVENING...AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT TO               
OUR NORTHWEST ACROSS PA AND OH. THE RUC...NAM AND GFS ALSO AGREE ON             
ACTIVITY FOCUSING TOWARD THE DCA/BWI METROS THROUGH THIS EVENING                
BEFORE GETTING SQUASHED SOUTH TOWARD CENTRAL VA LATER TONIGHT. THIS             
JIVES WITH CURRENT RADAR TRENDS TOO...SO WILL HAVE THE HIGHEST POPS             
E/SE AND LOWEST POPS N/NW THROUGH TONIGHT.                                      
LATER TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY...THE FRONT WILL RESIDE TO OUR SOUTH IN               
SOUTHERN VA...BUT AM LEERY OF POTENTIAL UPSTREAM ACTIVITY (CONVECTIVE           
SYSTEM OR REMNANTS OF??) AFFECTING OUR CWA. THE GFS BRINGS PRECIP               
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF OUR CWA...WHILE THE NAM KEEPS US DRY.               
SIDED MORE TOWARD THE NAM...ONLY INCLUDING 30 POPS ACROSS THE                   
SOUTHWEST CORNER OF OUR CWA.                                                    
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...                                        
HIPRES BLDG FRI NGT SFC-H8. IN THE MID LVLS /H7-5/...CYCLONIC FLOW              
IN CNDN MARITIMES WL SLOWLY RLS GRIP. IN COMBO...XPCT MUCH DRIER AIR            
TO FILTER IN FM THE N...WHICH SHUD PUSH QSTNY BNDRY FRTHR S...AND               
ERODE NRN FRINGE OF CLD DECK. THINK QPF FIELD FM GFS CONTAMINATED BY            
CNVCTV FEEDBACK...AND WL BE GOING W/ DRY FCST.                                  
COLUMN REMAINS DRY /RH AOB 20 PCT/ H8-H4...SO ONCE WE LOSE DIURNAL              
HTG...IT WL BE REAL TUFF FOR CLDS. WL GO W/ FEW...THERE CUD ALWAYS              
BE SOME CI SINCE MSTR HIER ABV H4.                                              
CNTR OF HIPRES OHD BY SUN. SINCE SOURCE RGN OF AMS CNTRL CNDA...AND             
BURBS HAD MIN-T IN THE 50S YDA MRNG...SIDED W/ COOLER MAV TEMPS. WL             
SMOOTH OUT SOME OF THE XTRMS THO...                                             
HIPRES AT START OF XTNDD PD /MON/ WL BE SHOVED ASIDE BY CDFNT                   
EMBEDDED IN WLYS. FROPA TUE...W/ SCT SHRA/TSRA. CNDN HIPRES WL POWER            
BHD SYSTM...FOR CLR-N-DRY CONDS WED-THU. DID HANG ONTO SOME CLDS                
ACRS THE S WED PENDING SPD OF CDFNT...OTRW SCT CLDS AT MOST. TEMP               
DIFF AT END OF PD MORE NOTICIBLE AT NGT...DUE TO LWR DEWPTS.                    
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
SHOWERS HAVE KEPT MVFR OR IFR TYPE VSBYS/CIGS AT MANY TERMINALS                 
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. SIMILAR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE IN SHOWERS             
THROUGH LATER THIS EVENING...AND THEN AT LEAST SIMILAR VSBY CATS                
WILL OCCUR IN FOG LATER TONIGHT. LOW CLOUDS MAY ALSO FORM AND BE A              
PROBLEM...ALTHOUGH AM NOT AS CONFIDENT ON THIS LOW OF A DECK FORMING            
ATTM. VFR SHOULD PREVAIL BY 13Z.                                                
&&                                                                              
.MARINE...                                                                      
ONVECTIVE ELEMENTS HAVE ALLOWED WINDS TO GUST AOA 18 KT AT TIMES AT             
SITES ON THE BAY/POTOMAC TODAY. OTHERWISE...10 TO 15 KT WIND HAVE               
OCCURRED. HOWEVER...A NORTHERLY WIND SURGE BEHIND A COLD FROPA WILL             
LEAD TO SCA WINDS OVER THE BAY BY FRIDAY MORNING...POSSIBLY LASTING             
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.                                                          
CORE OF THIS SURGE WL BE S OF THE WATERS /MD PORTION OF THE BAY-                
TDL PTMC/ BY FRI EVE. WL GO W/ STRAIGHT 15 KT...JUST BLO SCA CRIT.              
WNDS WL SUBSIDE FM THERE FRI NGT AND SAT AS HIPRES BUILDS.                      
&&                                                                              
.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
DC...NONE.                                                                      
MD...NONE.                                                                      
VA...NONE.                                                                      
WV...NONE.                                                                      
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ANZ530>534 FROM 6 AM FRIDAY TO 6 PM           
     FRIDAY.                                                                    
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHORT TERM/AVIATION...PELOQUIN                                                  
LONG TERM...HTS                                                                 
MARINE...PELOQUIN/HTS                                                           
</PRE></TT></td>   md                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC                             
1159 AM EDT THU AUG 10 2006                                                     
.SHORT TERM /REST OF TODAY/...                                                  
ORGANIZED AREA OF RAIN CONTINUES TO PRESS SOUTHEAST ACROSS LOWER                
SOUTHERN MD AND THE LOWER POTOMAC/BAY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. BEHIND              
THIS...LIGHTER AREAS OF RAIN EXIST BACK TOWARD NORTHWEST MARYLAND.              
THE MODELS DID NOT HAVE A GREAT HANDLE ON THIS AREA OF                          
RAINFALL. USED RADAR/OBS AND THEIR TRENDS FOR THE EARLIER MORNING               
UPDATE...AND CONTINUE TO DO SO INTO EARLY AFTERNOON. RAINFALL WAS               
A PRODUCT OF LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH A WARM FRONT...AND AIDED BY A                 
WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE FRONT...BOTH EFFECTS WHICH                  
WILL WANE AS THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES. THERES ALSO A COLD FRONT                 
DRAPED ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES...BUT THAT WILL BE COMING TROUGH                  
TONIGHT...AND AM STARTING TO WONDER HOW MUCH ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY                
WILL BE ABLE TO FORM THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. AT THE VERY                        
LEAST...THE RAIN ON RADAR WILL BE AROUND FOR A FEW MORE                         
HOURS...AND WARRANTS HIGH POPS (CAT SE INTO EARLY PM...HIGH CHC                 
ELSEWHERE). IN ADDITION...THE RUC...NAM AND GFS INDICATE                        
ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON...WITH THE HIGHEST COVERAGE               
CONVERGING CLOSE TO THE I-95 CORRIDOR. DO BELIEVE THAT ADDITIONAL               
ACTIVITY WILL BE ABLE TO FORM LATER THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING AFTER                
THE CURRENT PRECIP MOVES AWAY AND A LITTLE BIT OF HEATING OCCURS.               
VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWS CLOUDS ACROSS A LOT OF THE CWA...WHICH WILL               
LIMIT INSTABILITY. SHOWERS COULD POP JUST ABOUT ANYWHERE...BUT THE              
BEST CHC FOR THUNDER MAY BE ACROSS THE SW AND NE WHERE THE VISIBLE              
IMAGERY SHOWS THE BEST OPPORTUNITY FOR BREAKS. NEEDLESS TO                      
SAY...NO SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED.                                            
ALSO...WITH THE RAIN AND CLOUD COVER...HAVE DROPPED TEMPERATURES                
ONE TO TWO CATEGORIES...WHICH STILL MAY NOT BE ENOUGH IN A FEW                  
SPOTS.                                                                          
PRODUCTS OUT SOON...                                                            
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
SHIELD OF RAIN HAS MOVED AWAY FROM TERMINALS...WITH SCATTERED                   
SHOWERS REMAINING. LOW CLOUDS REMAIN AS WELL...AND VSBYS HAVE ALSO              
BEEN SLOW TO COME UP. SHOULD BE AN IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR/VFR BEFORE               
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS OCCUR LATER THIS AFTERNOON/THIS EVENING. COLD                
FROPA TONIGHT WILL ALSO USHER IN A WIND SHIFT.                                  
&&                                                                              
.MARINE...                                                                      
A FEW SPOTS HAVE HAD GUSTS ABOVE 18 KT...BUT BELIEVE THAT THEY                  
HAVE BEEN A FUNCTION OF SHORT LIVED/SHORT DURATION CONVECTIVE                   
EFFECTS INSTEAD A LONGER FUSED SCA EVENT. WILL STILL HAVE TO WATCH              
SOUTHERLY FLOW BUT BELIEVE IT WILL REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA AND                
NO FLAGS WILL BE RAISED ATTM.                                                   
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION...                                                             
 /ISSUED 828 AM EDT THU AUG 10 2006/                                            
SHORT TERM /REST OF TODAY/...                                                   
HARD TO ARGUE WITH THE RADAR...AND OBS. ITS RAINING IN A LOT OF                 
PLACES ACROSS OUR CWA...IN ASSOCIATION WITH A LEADING WAVE. HAVE                
BUMPED MORNING POPS UP TO LIKELY/CATEGORICAL IN THESE PLACES. NO                
OTHER CHANGES AT THIS TIME...                                                   
PREV DISCUSSION...                                                              
 /ISSUED 404 AM EDT THU AUG 10 2006/                                            
SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT/...                                           
HIGH PRES WILL EASE AWAY AND COLD FRONT WILL MOVE TOWARDS AND THRU              
THE REGION TODAY AND TONIGHT. WIND SHIFT TO THE N WILL OCCUR TOWARDS            
MIDNIGHT. WENT JUST UNDER LIKELY POPS LATE TODAY WITH THE FRONT                 
NEARING. DOESN/T SEEM WELL ORGANIZED ENOUGH TO INSPIRE GREAT                    
CONFIDENCE IN RAIN... BUT WITH THE LIMITED FORCING AND INSTAB AND               
TIME OF DAY... SHOULD PRODUCE AT LEAST SCT SHOWERS AND TSRA. WEAK               
WAVE AHEAD OF THE FRONT EARLY THIS MORNING WILL BRING ABOUT A FEW               
RAIN SHOWERS AS WELL. HIGH TEMPS TODAY WILL BE SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY             
IN THE MID 80S.                                                                 
AVIATION...                                                                     
VFR CONDITIONS WILL WORSEN TO MVFR AND LIKELY IFR AT TIMES WITH                 
SHOWERS LATER TODAY AND THIS EVENING WITH COLD FRONT MOVING INTO AND            
THRU THE AREA. VFR CONDITIONS WILL RETURN WITH A DRIER N WIND                   
OVERNIGHT.                                                                      
MARINE...                                                                       
WINDS CHANNELING AROUND 15KT OUT OF THE S UP THE BAY EARLY THIS                 
MORNING. THAT SHOULD CONTINUE TODAY WITH S WINDS AND THEN AGAIN LATE            
TONIGHT WITH WINDS REVERSING OUT OF THE NORTH. HIGHEST WINDS WILL               
LIKELY BE FRIDAY MORNING.                                                       
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...                                         
COLD FRONT WILL BE SOUTH OF THE AREA FRIDAY MORNING. COOL AND DRY               
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTH THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC FRIDAY AND              
REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THERE IS SOME DISCREPANCY                  
REGARDING A POSSIBLE SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH ON SATURDAY. WILL LEAN            
MORE TOWARDS THE GFS AND KEEP A MOSTLY CLEAR AND DRY FORECAST.                  
TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR THROUGH THE             
WEEKEND. A MORE TYPICAL AIRMASS WILL RETURN BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. WEAK            
COLD FRONT AS WELL AS PASSING SHORT WAVES WILL LEAD TO CHANCE OF                
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BY MID WEEK.                                          
&&                                                                              
.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
DC...NONE.                                                                      
MD...NONE.                                                                      
VA...NONE.                                                                      
WV...NONE.                                                                      
MARINE...NONE.                                                                  
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHORT TERM/AVIATION/MARINE...PELOQUIN                                           
PREV DISCUSSION...PELOQUIN/STRONG/ALLEN                                         
</PRE></TT></td>   md                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN                              
331 PM CDT THU AUG 10 2006                                                      
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
A LITTLE TRICKY FORECAST TONIGHT. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWING A                 
WAVE MOVING EAST SOUTHEAST ACROSS NW/NORTH CENTRAL                              
MINNESOTA...WITH NOT A BIG TURN SOUTHEAST YET. THINK RUC AND NAM A              
LITTLE OVERDONE WITH PRECIP. IF PRECIP DOES DEVELOP FATHER                      
SOUTHEAST IT WILL BE MOVING INTO MORE STABLE AIR. SE FLOW WILL                  
CONTINUE OVERNIGHT WITH VERY LITTLE IN THE WAY OF WARM ADVECTION.               
LIKE GFS AND UKMET QPF PATTERN BETTER. CONVECTION DEVELOPING OVER               
ND/SD BORDER REGION MAY DRIFT TOWARD SW MN LATE TONIGHT. DRY                    
FORECAST STILL LOOKS GOOD FOR FRIDAY WITH VERY LITTLE FORCING.                  
WILL GO MORE WITH GFS AND ECMWF TIMING FOR FRONT SATURDAY NIGHT                 
AND SUNDAY. BOTH NAM AND GFS SHOW CAP DEVELOPING OVER MUCH OF THE               
AREA DURING THE DAY SATURDAY AND EVEN INTO PART OF SATURDAY                     
EVENING. BETTER CHANCE FIR PRECIP WILL BE LATE SATURDAY NIGHT                   
INTO SUNDAY NIGHT ACROSS CWA. IN ADDITION TO SEVERE WEATHER                     
POTENTIAL..GFS SHOWING SIGNAL OF SUB TROPICAL MOISTURE MOVING UP TO             
INTERACT WITH FRONT BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. FORECAST PRECIPITABLE                  
WATER VALUES INCREASE TO NEAR 2.5 INCHES. WILL INCREASE POPS BUT                
WILL NOT GO UP TO LIKELY AT THIS POINT...UNTIL WE GET A BETTER                  
TREND.                                                                          
LONGER TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY                                     
GOOD AGREEMENT CONTINUES AMONG THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS AS THE PERIOD            
STARTS WITH DEEP UPPER TROF SWINGING ACROSS THE AREA WITH ASSOCIATED            
COLD FRONT. SOME DISCREPANCIES IN THE TIMING WITH THE GFS BEING A               
BIT SLOWER ON THE EXIT OF MOISTURE AND ENTRANCE OF HIGH PRESSURE.               
GOOD SET UP FOR PRECIPITATION WITH THIS SYSTEM WITH ABUNDANT                    
SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE AVAILABLE WITH POTENTIAL FOR PWATS OVER 2                  
INCHES BEING TRANSPORTED INTO THE REGION. THE DETAILS ON THE                    
MAGNITUDE OF MOISTURE WILL BECOME MORE CLEAR AS SATURDAY                        
APPROACHES...AS WELL AS THE PLACEMENT OF THE GREATEST RAINFALL.                 
WEATHER FOR MONDAY MORNING STILL A LITTLE UNCERTAIN...BUT FRONT WILL            
HAVE EXITED THE CWA BY MONDAY AFTERNOON BRINGING NORTHERLY WINDS                
ONCE AGAIN. TEMPS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S THROUGH THE            
EARLY PART OF THE WEEK WITH AN INCREASE IN WARMTH BY MID WEEK AS SFC            
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF AND SOUTHERLY WINDS RETURN WITH INCREASING              
MOISTURE. UPPER RIDGE OVER TOP THE REGION BY THIS TIME WITH SFC TROF            
SETTING UP TO THE WEST WHICH SUGGESTS CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT WHICH              
MAY ROLL EASTWARD AND AFFECT THE AREA THURSDAY.                                 
&&                                                                              
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
MN...NONE.                                                                      
WI...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
JPR/MDB                                                                         
</PRE></TT></td>   mn                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO                           
955 AM CDT THU AUG 10 2006                                                      
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES...FROM THE CONVECTION TO OUR NORTH...HAVE                    
PROPAGATED AS FAR SOUTH AS EAST CENTRAL KANSAS THROUGH CENTRAL                  
MISSOURI. THESE WAVES HAVE BEGUN TO INTERACT WITH THE WARM MOIST AIR            
ALREADY IN PLACE ACROSS AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE MISSOURI RIVER.            
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS BEGUN TO POP UP AS A RESULT AND             
IS ANTICIPATED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE LATE MORNING HOURS. MORNING              
SOUNDINGS FROM KSGF AND KTOP BOTH SHOW A NICE INVERTED V SOUNDING.              
LATER THIS AFTERNOON...IF AND WHEN ACTIVITY STARTS TO POP UP AGAIN              
IN THE HEAT OF THE AFTERNOON...SEVERE WIND GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL                 
COULD BE A PROBLEM. HOWEVER...SURFACE TEMPERATURES STILL IN THE 80S             
AND LOW 90S THIS MORNING SHOULD MITIGATE OUR SEVERE POTENTIAL. USED             
JUST SCATTERED (40%) POPS TO COVER THE MORNING ACTIVITY AS THE                  
POPCORN NATURE OF THE CONVECTION MAKES IT LOOK LIKE THE STORMS WILL             
NOT CONGEAL INTO A LARGE COMPLEX.                                               
THE OTHER FORECAST CONSIDERATION IS THIS MORNING IS THAT WITH ALL               
THE CONVECTIVE DEBRIS AND CLOUD COVER OUR HEAT ADVISORY FOR THE                 
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA COULD BE IN TROUBLE. BOUNDARY LAYER                    
MOISTENING MIGHT STILL BE ABLE TO GET HEAT INDICES TO 105...BUT DEW             
POINTS WILL HAVE TO GET TO AND STAY NEAR 70 IF CLOUD COVER PREVENTS             
AFTERNOON HIGHS FROM CLIMBING TO 100 DEGREES. WILL CONTINUE TO                  
MONITOR THIS THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS.                                         
CUTTER                                                                          
&&                                                                              
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...                                                         
442 AM...                                                                       
PROBLEMS CONTINUE TO BE PRECIP CHANCES TODAY AND TONIGHT...AND                  
TEMPERATURES TODAY. MCS OVER EASTERN NEBRASKA AND WESTERN IOWA                  
SHOULD CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST-SOUTHEAST ON NOSE OF THE LOW LEVEL JET             
AS IT VEERS THROUGH THE REST OF THE MORNING HOURS. HAVE HIGH CHANCE             
POPS ACROSS NORTHERN AND NORTHEASTERN MISSOURI THIS MORNING. REST OF            
THE FORECAST AREA SHOULD SEE MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. WITH 850MB TEMPS IN            
THE MID 20S...EXPECT READINGS GENERALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE                  
MISSOURI RIVER TO ONCE AGAIN REACH THE 100 TO 102 DEGREE RANGE.                 
WHILE DEW POINTS IN EXTREME EAST CENTRAL KANSAS MAY MIX OUT INTO THE            
LOW 60S...MOST LOCATIONS SHOULD SEE READINGS IN THE UPPER 60S AND               
LOW TO MID 70S. HAVE THEREFORE ISSUED A HEAT ADVISORY FOR LOCATIONS             
GENERALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE MISSOURI RIVER FOR TODAY.                      
AS HAS BEEN THE CASE OFTEN DURING THE PAST WEEK OR SO...AREA MAY SEE            
LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP. HAVE                    
CONTINUED LOW CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA DURING                
THAT TIME. MODELS SHOW FAIRLY GOOD ISENTROPIC LIFT (315K SURFACE)               
DEVELOPING AFTER MIDNIGHT. BEST FOCUS SEEMS TO BE EASTERN SECTIONS              
SO HAVE SLIGHTLY HIGHER POPS AFTER MIDNIGHT FOR EASTERN SECTIONS.               
WHILE MODELS HAVE SHOWN SOME DISCREPANCY OVER THE LAST SEVERAL                  
DAYS...THEY ARE FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH PUSHING THE FRONT THROUGH FOR            
FRIDAY. SO GOING FORECAST OF MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS AND TEMPERATURES             
CLOSER TO NORMAL LOOKS GOOD FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.                            
NRR                                                                             
950 PM WED...                                                                   
HAVE REMOVED OR LOWER POPS ALONG THE IOWA BORDER. EVENING UPR AIR               
INDICATES A RATHER STRONG CAP IN PLACE WITH H7 TEMPS FROM 12-14                 
DEG/C FM TOPEKA NORTH TO OMAHA. LATEST RUC/WRF INDICATES THAT THE               
WARM FRONT IN NRN MO WILL PROGRESS SLOWLY NORTH WITH THE BEST H8                
THETA-E ADVECTION AND ISENTROPIC LIFT ON THE 315K SURFACE TO BE                 
MAINLY NORTH AND EAST OF THE CWA. WEAK 315K ISENTROPIC LIFT DOES                
EXIST TONIGHT NEAR THE IOWA BORDER...BUT CONDENSATION PRESSURE                  
DEFICITS ARE FM 100-200 ACROSS THE NW CORNER. WILL HOLD A LOW POP               
FOR THE EXTREME NERN CORNER WHERE VERY ELEVATED CONVECTION IS                   
POSSIBLE WHERE CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS ARE 50 OR LOWER.                  
ONLY OTHER RISK OF PRECIPITATION FOR TONIGHT IS WITH THE TROPICAL               
PLUME TO OUR NW. IT APPEARS IT WILL STAY TO OUR NW...AT LEAST FOR               
TONIGHT.                                                                        
DB                                                                              
&&                                                                              
.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
MO...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THURSDAY TO 7 PM THURSDAY FOR MOZ028-             
     MOZ029-MOZ030-MOZ031-MOZ037-MOZ038-MOZ039-MOZ040-MOZ043-                   
     MOZ044-MOZ045-MOZ046-MOZ053-MOZ054.                                        
KS...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THURSDAY TO 7 PM THURSDAY FOR KSZ057-             
     KSZ060-KSZ103-KSZ104-KSZ105.                                               
$$                                                                              
WFO EAX                                                                         
</PRE></TT></td>   mo                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE                                        
324 PM CDT THU AUG 10 2006                                                      
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
SYNOPSIS...12Z UPPR AIR ANLYS INDCD UPPR LVL H3 JET SEGMENT OF 60               
KTS FM SRN SD INTO SRN MN. THE JET ENERGY WAS ASSOCIATED WITH A                 
NUMBER OF SHRTWV TROFS AT H5 WITH THE FIRST OVR SE NEB/SW IA AT 12Z.            
UPSTRM...ANOTHER WAVE WAS NOTED OVR ERN SD...AND YET ANOTHER IN ERN             
MT/NRN WY. ALTHOUGH THE ATMOSPHERE HAS BEEN WORKED OVR ACRS ERN                 
NEB/WRN IA...THE EML WAS STILL IN PLACE OVR THE WRN HI PLAINS WITH              
+15 C AT H7 AT KLBF THIS MRNG. 19Z SFC ANLYS INDCD LO PRES DEEPENING            
OVR NRN SD ASSOCIATED WITH THE MT SHRTWV TROF. SFC LO AND ASSOCIATED            
BOUNDARY OVR THE SRN CWA HAD PUSHED SWD INTO KS/MO.                             
FORECAST...FORECAST STILL A LITTLE UNCERTAIN THRU THE EVNG.                     
CONVECTION HAS RECENTLY DVLPD OVR NRN SD AT THE INTERSECTION OF THE             
SFC LO AND OUTFLOW BOUNDARY OVR CNTRL SD. OTHERWISE CONVECTION CONTS            
OVR NE KS ALNG BOUNDARY THAT MOVED SOUTH OF THE FA. WITH CWA IN THE             
MIDDLE OF THESE TWO AREAS OF CONVERGENCE...AND WITH UPPR LVL RIDING             
OVR ERN NEB/WRN IA...STILL FEEL CONVECTION IS UNLIKELY TONIGHT FOR              
THE OAX CWA. WL INCLUDE SOME SCHC POPS FOR OUR NRN FA THIS EVNG WITH            
LATEST OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS FM THE RUC INDICATING THAT THE MLCIN IS               
WEAKENING ALONG THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY. WL ALSO INCLUDE A SCHC IN THE             
SRN FA WHERE ONGOING MID LVL WK CONVECTION SHLD CONT FOR A COUPLE               
MORE HOURS. OTHERWISE...WITH LLJ FOCUSED TO OUR WEST AND SE                     
TONIGHT...SHLD SEE A PRETTY QUIET NIGHT IN STORE. HAVE ADDED SOME               
FOG WITH PARTLY CLDY SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS AND SIG LO LVL MOISTURE.             
UPPR HEIGHTS CONT TO RISE ON FRI AS HEIGHT FALLS MOVING INTO THE                
GREAT BASIN. THE BOUNDARY OVR KS/MO SHLD GENERALLY WASH OUT...OR                
RETREAT NORTH AS A WARM FRONT FOR FRI NIGHT. SOME DECENT THEAT-E                
ADVECTION NOTED ON FRI NIGHT WITH THE MOISTURE RETURN...BUT                     
INCREASING CAPPING INVERSION WL LIKELY INHIBIT TSRA DVLPMNT AND WL              
LEAVE OUT ATTM. SFC LO OVR THE WRN HI PLAINS WL CONT TO DEEPEN ON               
SAT AS WRLY UPPR LVL FLOW CONTS TO INCREASE ACRS THE ROCKIES. NAM               
CONTS TO BE QUICKER WITH THE FRONTAL MOVEMENT...PARTLY DUE TO                   
OUTFLOW FM MODEL GENERATED CONVECTION. ALTHOUGH SOME OF THE FRONTAL             
MOVEMENT IS FM CONVECTION...FEEL THE GFS IS TO SLOW WITH THE FRONT              
WITH A GENERAL FLAT UPPR LVL RIDGE OVR THE SRN PLAINS. THUS HAVE                
ADDED SOME SCHC POPS TO THE FAR NW CWA FOR LATE SAT AFTN NR THE                 
FRONTAL ZONE. INCREASED POPS TO HIGH CHC CAT OVR THE NW ON SAT NIGHT            
AS CONVECTION SHLD BECOME A LITTLE MORE WIDESPREAD AS THE LLJ DVLPS.            
EXTENDED...GENERALLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE MODELS FOR THE EXTENDED            
PERIOD. FRONT WL STILL BE IN THE AREA ON SUN AND HAVE CONTD THE                 
LIKELY POPS FOR SUN AFTN/NIGHT WITH DECENT UPPR LVL SUPPORT                     
INDICATED BY THE NAM/GFS/EC. WL HAVE THE FRONT MOVING SOUTH OF THE              
FA ON MON WITH SFC HI PRES BUILDING IN. HAVE DROPPED TMPS FOR THE               
TUE-THURS PERIOD GIVEN THE SFC HI OVR THE AREA AND LIMITED MIXING               
EXPECTED. OTHERWISE DRY WX IS EXPECTED FOR THE PERIOD.                          
&&                                                                              
.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
NE...NONE.                                                                      
IA...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
BOUSTEAD                                                                        
</PRE></TT></td>   ne                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND                                         
1050 AM CDT THU AUG 10 2006                                                     
.UPDATE...                                                                      
CHALLENGE TODAY IS CONVECTIVE CHANCES. FLOW IS ONCE AGAIN VERY                  
LIGHT UP TO 500 MB WITH NO MORE THAN ABOUT 5 TO 10 KNOT FLOW.                   
WATER VAPOR AND MODEL INITIALIZATIONS FROM NAM/RUC SHOWS NICE                   
LOOKING VORT MAX OVER NW/WCNTRL MN LATE MORNING AND REMAINING OVER              
THE AREA THIS AFTN. LINGERING CONVECTION IN THE DTL-FFM-ADC AREAS               
IS MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD...WHILE NEW CONVECTION HAS FIRED THIS                   
MORNING IN MARSHALL COUNTY MN. WITH CONVECTIVE TEMPS IN THE UPPER               
70S AND LAPS SHOWING DECENT INSTABILITY OVER JUST EAST OF THE RED               
RIVER...DID INCREASE POPS TO THE 40-50 PCT RANGE IN NW/WCTNL MN                 
WHERE IT WOULD APPEAR GREATEST COVERAGE WILL BE. CANNOT RULE OUT                
CONVECTION THOUGH RED RIVER WESTWARD AS HEATING INTO THE LOWER-MID              
80S COMBINED WITH MID 60 TO AROUND 70 DEW PTS WOULD HAVE 1500-2000              
J/KG AND LI TO -4. WILL LEAVE 20-30 POP FOR ERN ND THIS AFTN.                   
SEPARATE 500 MB WAVE IN WRN ND SEEMS TO NOT BE INITIALIZED WELL BY              
MODELS AND THIS MAY ADD INCREASED COVERAGE THIS EVENING IN SE ND                
AS IT MOVES IN.                                                                 
NO CHANGES TONIGHT AND BEYOND.                                                  
&&                                                                              
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
ND...NONE.                                                                      
MN...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
RIDDLE                                                                          
</PRE></TT></td>   nd                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ                                         
1130 AM EDT THU AUG 10 2006                                                     
.UPDATE /THIS AFTERNOON/...                                                     
THE CWA BASICALLY DIVIDED IN HALF THIS MORNING AS A WARM FRONT AT               
THE SURFACE AND 800 MB IS TRYING TO WORK NORTHWARD ACROSS THE                   
DELMARVA. SURFACE DEW POINTS HAVE BEEN INCREASING FROM SOUTH TO                 
NORTH SO FAR THIS MORNING. WAA INDUCED SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDER             
CONTINUES TO ROLL SOUTHEASTWARD JUST SOUTH OF OUR CWA, ALTHOUGH SOME            
OF THIS ACTIVITY MAY CLIP OUR MARYLAND AND DELAWARE COUNTIES INTO               
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. AFTER EXAMINING THE 00Z AND 06Z MODEL SUITE               
INCLUDING THE RUC, IT WAS FOUND THAT ONLY THE NGM HAD THE WAA                   
PRECIPITATION AS FAR EAST AS IT WAS (VIA RADAR) AT 12Z TODAY. THE               
OTHER MODELS HAD THE PRECIPITATION BUT THEY WERE TOO SLOW WITH ITS              
EASTWARD PROGRESSION.                                                           
SURFACE ANALYSIS THIS MORNING SHOWING A COMPLEX PATTERN WITH THE                
WARM FRONT TO OUR SOUTH SLOWLY LIFTING NORTHWARD, THEN A PREFRONTAL             
TROUGH LOCATED ACROSS LAKES ERIE AND ONTARIO, WITH A COLD FRONT                 
MOVING ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN CANADA AND NORTHERN MICHIGAN. MOST OF OUR            
CWA MAY BE CAPPED FOR AWHILE, HOWEVER AS THE PREFRONTAL TROUGH AND              
COLD FRONT GETS CLOSER ALONG WITH BETTER UPPER-LEVEL DYNAMICS                   
ARRIVING A BIT LATER THIS AFTERNOON, AT LEAST SCATTERED CONVECTION              
IS EXPECTED. THE BETTER CHC OF CONVECTION MAY BE THIS EVENING AS THE            
TRUE FRONT DROPS INTO THE AREA AND THEN MOVES EASTWARD. HOWEVER,                
CURRENTLY WATCHING A CELL POPPING UP IN CHESTER COUNTY, AS A LINE OF            
CU IS BUILDING NORTH OF THE CLOUD SHIELD ASSOCIATED WITH THE                    
PRECIPITATION MASS TO OUR SOUTH. THE ATMOSPHERE IS FORECAST TO                  
BECOME UNSTABLE ENOUGH TO PROMOTE SOME CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT AS                
MIXED LAYER CAPE GET TO ABOUT 1500 J/KG. NEARBY 12Z RAOBS SHOW A                
PRONOUNCED DRY LAYER ALOFT WHICH PERHAPS MAY HELP TO CAP THINGS FOR             
AWHILE, BUT THIS COULD ALSO PROMOTE SOME GUSTY WINDS IN ANY STORMS              
THAT POP THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. WE WILL MONITOR THIS                 
CLOSELY.                                                                        
AS FOR THIS UPDATE, REWORKED THE POPS SOME BY SLOWING THE ARRIVAL OF            
THE CHC POPS BASED ON RADAR TRENDS AND NEAR TERM GUIDANCE. ALSO DID             
SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO TIMING TONIGHT BASED ON SOME NEWER GUIDANCE, BUT            
DID NOT WANT TO MAKE DRASTIC CHANGES TO THE TONIGHT PERIOD ATTM.                
BASED ON TEMPERATURE TRENDS THIS MORNING, BOOSTED UP THIS                       
AFTERNOON'S HIGH TEMPERATURES A COUPLE OF DEGREES FROM ABOUT                    
PHILADELPHIA ON EASTWARD. MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO THE HOURLY GRIDS             
TO START WITH CURRENT OBSERVATIONS AND THEN FOR EXPECTED TRENDS                 
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.                                                          
THE UPDATED ZFP HAS ALREADY HIT THE STREETS. AN UPDATED PFM AND AFM             
WILL BE ISSUED SHORTLY WITH THE GRAPHICS BEING SENT TO THE INTERNET             
ATTM. HAVE A GOOD AFTERNOON!                                                    
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
PLENTY OF CU POPPING ESPECIALLY FROM KTTN ON SOUTHWARD AS WAA                   
GOT UNDERWAY EARLIER AND LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE HAS INCREASED AND                   
COUPLED WITH DAYTIME HEATING. GENERALLY SOUTHERLY WINDS THROUGH                 
THE AFTERNOON AND WILL BE WATCHING FOR AT LEAST SOME SCATTERED                  
CONVECTION TO POP THIS AFTERNOON.                                               
&&                                                                              
.MARINE...                                                                      
NO MAJOR CHANGE MADE DURING THIS UPDATE, HOWEVER DID DELAY THE                  
START OF THE PRECIPITATION CHCS THIS AFTERNOON MOST ZONES. SOUTHERLY            
WINDS IN THE 10 TO 15 KNOT RANGE STILL LOOKS GOOD AS THE GRADIENT               
INCREASES A BIT. WE WILL TAKE A CLOSER LOOK AT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY             
POTENTIAL ON FRIDAY WITH THE NEW PACKAGE LATER THIS AFTERNOON. IT               
APPEARS THERE COULD BE A SEVERAL HOUR PERIOD FRIDAY WITH GUSTS TO               
AROUND 25 KNOTS BEHIND COLD FRONT AND GOOD CAA. MORE ON THIS LATER              
THIS AFTERNOON.                                                                 
&&                                                                              
.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
PA...NONE.                                                                      
NJ...NONE.                                                                      
DE...NONE.                                                                      
MD...NONE.                                                                      
MARINE...NONE.                                                                  
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
UPDATE/AVIATION/MARINE...GORSE                                                  
</PRE></TT></td>   pa                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC                                          
1035 AM EDT THU AUG 10 2006                                                     
.SHORT TERM /TODAY/...UPR LVL RIDGE CENTERED OVR THE AL/GA BORDER               
CLEARLY DEFINED ON WV IMAGERY MATCHES UP FAIRLY WELL WITH NAM/RUC               
GUIDANCE. SEVERAL SHTWVS WILL SWING AROUND THE ERN PERIPHERY OF THIS            
RIDGE WHICH WILL INTERACT NOT ONLY WITH A WOBBLING FNTL BNDRY JUST N            
OF THE CHS CWFA BUT ALSO THE SEABREEZE AND CONVECTION OUTFLOWS LATER            
ON TDA. DEEP WNW FLOW MAY ACT TO PIN THE SEABREEZE A BIT CLOSER TO              
THE COAST TDA...BUT THIS WILL NOT PREVENT SCATTERED CONVECTION FROM             
DEVELOPING LATER TDA ACRS MUCH IF NOT THE ENTIRE CWFA. TIMING AND               
LOCATION PREVENTS MENTIONING LIKELY POPS BUT HIGH CHC 50 POPS ARE               
CERTAINLY VIABLE TDA. CONVECTIVE TEMPS IN THE LOW 90S WILL CERTAINLY            
BE MET AND THERE IS STILL PLENTY OF AVAILABLE INSTABILITY AND HIGH              
PWATS FOR TSTMS TO WORK WITH. ALTHOUGH MODEL AND MODIFIED AREA                  
SOUNDINGS INDICATE A CAPE OF 4-5 DEGREES C...AS WAS SHOWN IN                    
PREVIOUS DAYS THOSE VALUES HAVE HAD NO PROBLEM BEING BROKEN AND                 
SHOULD AGAIN BE THE CASE TDA ALONG WITH NO CINH. AGAIN...THE                    
POTENTIAL IS THERE FOR ISOLD STRONG/SEVERE TSTMS WITH DAMAGING WET              
MICROBURSTS THE MAIN THREAT. HAVE AGAIN ADDED GUSTY WINDS TO THE                
GRIDDED AND TEXT PRODUCTS. WITH PWATS SO HIGH AND STORM MOTIONS AOB             
5 KT...ISOLD FLOODING COULD ALSO BE A PROBLEM ESP CONSIDERING THAT              
SCATTERED POCKETS WITHIN THE CWFA HAS RECEIVED OVR 1 INCH OF RAIN               
THE PAST FEW DAYS.                                                              
NEXT CONCERN FOR TODAY IS THE EXCESSIVE HEAT AND HUMIDITY. AM RATHER            
CONCERNED WITH THE AMT OF CLOUD COVER OVR SRN PORTIONS OF THE CWFA              
THUS FAR...WHICH IS WHERE THE HEAT ADVISORY IS CURRENTLY IN EFFECT.             
ALTHOUGH DEWPTS ARE HOLDING FORT IN THE MID 70S...THE CURRENT CLOUD             
COVER PLUS TCU DEVELOPMENT LATER ON MAY MAKE THINGS DIFFICULT FOR               
REACHING HEAT ADVY CRITERIA. HOWEVER...WOULD RATHER GIVE THE ADVY A             
CHANCE INSTEAD OF DROPPING IT BEFORE GOOD AFTN HEATING SO WILL                  
MAINTAIN IT AS IS. DID TWEAK DOWN TEMPS A DEGREE BUT KEPT MAX TEMPS             
IN THE LOWER 90S AWAY FROM THE COAST. HEAT INDICES FOR AREAS OUTSIDE            
THE HEAT ADVY SHOULD CLIMB TO AROUND 100...POSSIBLY 102 OR 103.                 
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...STILL DEALING WITH MVFR VSBYS AT KSAV DUE TO BR/HZ BUT              
IT APPEARS TO BE LIFTING UP TO 6SM PER THE KSAV 5-MIN OBS SO WILL               
LET KSAV TAF RUN AS IS. KCHS MAINTAINING VFR...SO NO VSBY CONCERNS              
THERE. VFR CONDS SHOULD HOLD THRU MID AFTN WHEN CONVECTION WILL                 
AGAIN OCCUR BUT...AGAIN...LACK OF CONFIDENCE IN TIMING/LOCATION                 
PREVENTS ANYTHING MORE THAN CB. WILL MAINTAIN METWATCH FOR BOTH                 
TERMINALS AND RE-VISIT THE ISSUE IN THE 10/18Z TAFS.                            
&&                                                                              
.MARINE...SWLY WINDS TO CONTINUE TDA AOB 15 KT AND SEAS AOB 4 FT                
WITH WEAK APCHG FNTL BNDRY FROM THE N AND BERMUDA SFC HIGH PRES                 
OFFSHORE. ONLY COSMETIC WORDING TWEAKS NEEDED TO ONGOING MARINE FCST            
AS ALL WX ELEMENTS LOOK WELL HANDLED.                                           
&&                                                                              
.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
GA...HEAT ADVISORY FOR GAZ099>101-114>119-137>141 UNTIL 8 PM                    
     WEDNESDAY.                                                                 
SC...HEAT ADVISORY FOR SCZ047-048-051 UNTIL 8 PM WEDNESDAY.                     
MARINE...NONE.                                                                  
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
JPC                                                                             
</PRE></TT></td>   sc                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN                                          
256 PM EDT THU AUG 10 2006                                                      
.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)...INTERESTING FORECAST             
THIS AFTERNOON WITH A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL WAVES MOVING SOUTHEAST              
FROM THE MID-WEST AND OHIO VALLEY SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE FORECAST AREA            
THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS. ONE SUCH WAVE (MCV) IS MOVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS            
SOUTHERN INDIANA. CORFIDI VECTORS SLOWLY TURN MORE SOUTHEAST WITH               
TIME WHICH SHOULD ALLOW DEVELOPING CONVECTION OVER SOUTHERN INDIANA             
AND SOUTHERN ILLINOIS TO TURN MORE SOUTH TOWARD THE FORECAST AREA.              
FAIRLY DECENT INSTABILITY ADVECTING INTO THESE STORMS ACROSS                    
CENTRAL-WESTERN KENTUCKY WITH SPC SHOWING MLCAPES OF 4000-4500 J/KG.            
MLCAPES MUCH LESS OVER EAST TENNESSEE FOR NOW...BUT LATEST RUC                  
SHOWING INCREASING INSTABILITY THROUGH THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON-              
EVENING. GIVEN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND 500-700 THICKNESS...STORMS              
SHOULD MOVE TOWARD THE AREA DURING THE EVENING. DUE TO MID-LEVEL DRY            
AIR AND HIGH PWS...SOME OF THESE STORMS COULD BE SEVERE PRODUCING               
DAMAGING WINDS AND TORRENTIAL RAINS WITH LOCALIZED FLOODING POSSIBLE.           
LATEST HPC EXCESSIVE RAINFALL SHOWS A SLIGHT RISK OF FLASH FLOODING             
FOR SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA AND NORTHEAST TENNESSEE.                                 
CONVECTION WILL WEAKEN BY MIDNIGHT WITH AREAS OF FOG POSSIBLE AGAIN             
OVERNIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.                                             
FOR FRIDAY...BOTH THE NAM AND GFS SHOW COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE               
FORECAST AREA WITH ANOTHER SHORT-WAVE PRODUCING WIDESPREAD                      
CONVECTION. AIRMASS WILL ONCE AGAIN BECOME MODERATE UNSTABLE WITH               
CAPES OF 2000-2500 J/KG...SO CAN NOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED SEVERE                
STORM.                                                                          
FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AND ESPECIALLY SATURDAY...NAM AND GFS MODELS DIFFER            
GREATLY IN REGARD TO SHORT-WAVE PASSAGE. GFS MUCH FASTER THAN THE               
NAM AND LATEST NCEP DISCUSSION SUGGEST NAM IS AN OUTLIER AND SHOULD             
BE DISGARDED. WILL TREND TOWARD THE LOWER POPS OF THE GFS MODEL.                
HOWEVER...BOTH MODELS SHOW AN INVERTED TROUGH OF THE AREA WHICH                 
COULD PRODUCE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...SO WILL NOT TAKE            
POPS OUT TOTALLY.                                                               
.LONG TERM (SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...WATCHING SHORT WAVES DROPPING            
WELL SOUTH AND EAST OF THE VIEWING AREA ON MODEL PROGS FOR THE EARLY            
PART OF THE FORECAST PERIOD LEAVING A BIT DRIER AND A LITTLE MORE               
STABLE ATMOSHPERE IN PLACE. HOWEVER...MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY NEXT            
SERIES OF WAVES HELPS TO PRESS ANOTHER SYNOPTIC BOUNDARY TOWARD THE             
SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS WITH POSSIBILITY OF PASSAGE AROUND TUESDAY                
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY TIMEFRAME. DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN FROPA IN                  
NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN WILL KEEP POPS IN SLIGHT CHANCE CATEGORY FOR             
NOW. MAINTAIN DRY FORECAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY AS              
SURFACE HIGH BUILDS EAST INTO THE NORTHEASTERN QUARTER OF THE NATION            
WITH DRIER AND MORE STABLE LOW LEVEL EAST TO NORTHEAST FLOW BEHIND              
FRONT. STAYED CLOSE TO SUPERIOR GFS MOS CONCERNING TEMPS THROUGH                
LONG TERM.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             74  89  71  85 /  30  70  40  30            
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  73  88  70  83 /  40  70  50  30            
OAK RIDGE, TN                       72  88  69  83 /  50  70  50  20            
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              68  82  65  79 /  60  70  60  30            
&&                                                                              
.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
NC...NONE.                                                                      
TN...NONE.                                                                      
VA...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
DH/TH                                                                           
</PRE></TT></td>   tn                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN                                             
1052 AM CDT THU AUG 10 2006                                                     
.DISCUSSION...LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES A WEAK QUASI-STATIONARY            
BOUNDARY ACROSS MISSOURI...ILLINOIS...AND INTO THE OHIO/TENNESSEE               
VALLEY. WATER VAPOR SATELLITE AND 12Z UPPER AIR ANALYSIS SHOWS                  
RIDGING IN PLACE ACROSS THE MID SOUTH WITH CONVECTION THUS FAR                  
REMAINING ALONG THE GULF COAST AND MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.                   
VISIBLE SATELLITE TRENDS THIS MORNING ARE SHOWING SOME CUMULUS                  
DEVELOPMENT ACROSS NW/SE SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. SHORT TERM              
CONVECTIVE ANALYSIS SUGGESTS THAT CONVECTION SHOULD BE PRIMARILY                
DIURNALLY DRIVEN ACROSS THE MID SOUTH WITH WEAK WIND PROFILES ALOFT             
SURFACE BASED CAPES BETWEEN 3000-4000 J/KG...HIGH FREEZING LEVELS               
AROUND 16KFT...AND PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AROUND 2 INCHES. THINK             
THAT ANY SEVERE THREAT THIS AFTERNOON WILL REMAIN RATHER ISOLATED               
WITH LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL/WINDS AS THE THREATS IF ANY.                      
OTHERWISE...TEMPERATURES THUS FAR ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS                 
MORNING ARE IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S...WITH HEAT INDICIES                  
ALREADY APPROACHING 100. WILL KEEP HEAT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL                
THIS EVENING UNLESS CONVECTION WARRANTS DROPPING THE HEADLINES                  
SOMETIME THIS AFTERNOON.                                                        
WILL BE MAKING SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO THE AFTERNOON FORECAST BASED ON              
CURRENT TRENDS. UPDATED GRIDS WILL BE PUBLISHED SHORTLY.                        
CJC                                                                             
.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 251 AM CDT THU AUG 10 2006...                         
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS MID LEVEL CLOUDS FORMING OVER THE REGION.               
THIS IS A GOOD INDICATION OF DEEP MOISTURE POOLING AS INDICATED BY              
GFS/NAM. TEMPERATURES HAVE NOT COOLED MUCH TONIGHT WITH MEM STILL               
REPORTING 85 AT 07Z. STATIONARY FRONT REMAINS STALLED NORTH OF THE              
REGION WHILE RUC DATA SHOWS A GENERAL WEAKNESS AT 500MB OVER THE                
MIDSOUTH AND AROUND THE HIGH THAT IS ANCHORED OVER SOUTHWESTERN                 
ARKANSAS. HAVE RAISED RAIN CHANCES FOR TODAY DUE TO THE PRESENCE                
OF THE DEEP LAYER MOISTURE OVER THE REGION AND WEAKNESS IN THE                  
UPPER LEVELS. THESE FACTORS COMBINED WITH DAYTIME HEATING SHOULD                
PRODUCE SCATTERED CONVECTION ACROSS THE REGION. AM INCLUDING                    
CONVECTION IN THE MORNING AS ENVIRONMENT SEEMS PRIMED FOR SOME                  
ISOLATED SUNRISE SURPRISE. AM CONTINUING WELL ABOVE NORMAL HIGHS                
FOR TODAY...WITH TRIPLE DIGITS LIKELY OVER MUCH OF THE AREA SOUTH               
OF I 40. BASED UPON YESTERDAYS TRENDS...EXPECT TEMPS TO SOAR IN                 
THE MORNING BEFORE LATE MORNING CLOUDS/CONVECTION LEVEL TEMPS.                  
HEAT ADVISORY WILL CONTINUE FOR TODAY WITH INDICES AROUND 105                   
BEING PRODUCED BY DEW POINTS AROUND 70 AND TEMPS NEAR 100.                      
ON FRIDAY...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION WHICH               
SHOULD INTERACT WITH THE HIGH INSTABILITY AND DEEP LEVEL MOISTURE               
TO PRODUCE A GOOD CHANCE FOR STORMS. RAIN CHANCES AND ADDITIONAL                
CLOUD COVER SHOULD SUPPRESS TEMPS. FRIDAY NIGHT...A COLD FRONT IS               
EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST. THIS WILL CONTINUE              
TO ACT AS A FOCUS FOR RAIN CHANCES FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. THE              
FRONT IS THEN EXPECTED TO STALL OVER THE REGION HOWEVER THE DEEPER              
LEVEL MOISTURE WILL MOVE AWAY FROM THE REGION AS THE UPPER RIDGE                
BUILDS BACK OVER THE AREA. THIS SHOULD LEAVE THE REGION MAINLY DRY              
OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. TEMPS WILL COOL                      
SLIGHTLY WITH 850 TEMPS LOWERING TO AROUND +18 BUT SHOULD WARM                  
BACK UP AGAIN BY EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE RIDGE SETTLES OVER THE                  
AREA ONCE AGAIN.                                                                
&&                                                                              
.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
AR...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR CLAY-CRAIGHEAD-              
     CRITTENDEN-CROSS-GREENE-LAWRENCE-LEE(AR)-MISSISSIPPI-                      
     PHILLIPS-POINSETT-RANDOLPH-ST. FRANCIS.                                    
MO...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR DUNKLIN-PEMISCOT.            
MS...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR ALCORN-BENTON(MS)-           
     CALHOUN-CHICKASAW-COAHOMA-DESOTO-ITAWAMBA-LAFAYETTE-LEE(MS)-               
     MARSHALL-MONROE-PANOLA-PONTOTOC-PRENTISS-QUITMAN-                          
     TALLAHATCHIE-TATE-TIPPAH-TISHOMINGO-TUNICA-UNION-YALOBUSHA.                
TN...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR CARROLL-CHESTER-             
     CROCKETT-DECATUR-DYER-FAYETTE-GIBSON-HARDEMAN-HARDIN-                      
     HAYWOOD-HENDERSON-HENRY-LAKE-LAUDERDALE-MADISON-MCNAIRY-                   
     OBION-SHELBY-TIPTON-WEAKLEY.                                               
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
VALLE                                                                           
</PRE></TT></td>   tn                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV                                          
805 PM EDT THU AUG 10 2006                                                      
.SHORT TERM /REST OF TONIGHT/...                                                
WILL UPDATE FORECAST TO LOWER POPS THIS EVENING BASED ON CURRENT                
RADAR TRENDS.                                                                   
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
EXPECT WIDESPREAD HAZE AND LIGHT FOG TONIGHT...WITH A FEW LOCATIONS             
HAVING PATCHY DENSE FOG. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS COULD DEVELOP LATE                 
TONIGHT. ADDITIONAL SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED FRIDAY              
AFTERNOON...MAINLY OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN AREAS OF THE REGION.               
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION...                                                             
 /ISSUED 251 PM EDT THU AUG 10 2006/                                            
SHORT TERM /REST OF TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...                                  
DIFFICULT FCST FOR THIS EVE THROUGH FRIDAY. BOTH GFS AND NAM SHOW               
DIV AT 250 AND 850 CONV VCNTY OF SRN PORTION OF THE CWA AT VARYING              
TIMES THIS EVENING INTO FRIDAY. THIS MAKES THE PLACEMENT AND                    
TIMING OF HIGHER POPS DIFFICULT. LOCAL WRF MODEL AND RUC ALSO                   
SUPPORT 250 DIV/850 CONV 23 TO 04Z TIME FRAME SO HAVE GONE WITH                 
LKLY POPS OVER THE SOUTH THEN. INCREASE POPS AGAIN AND SHIFT TO SE              
DURING FRIDAY AS THE UPPER FLOW SUPPORTS LIFT WHILE THE SOUTHEAST               
FLOW AT LOW LEVELS SHOULD PROMOTE UPSLOPE PCPN. HAVE LOWERED THE                
MAX TEMPS FOR FRIDAY ALSO IN LIGHT OF THE CLOUDS/PCPN ACROSS THE                
SOUTHERN HALF OF CWA.                                                           
AVIATION...                                                                     
CONDS EXPECTED TO LOWER TO MVFR THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT ACROSS                 
THE SOUTHERN HALF OF CWA IF PRECIPITATION DEVELOPS AS EXPECTED                  
DURING THE EARLY NIGHT. FOG IN MOUNTAIN VALLEYS SHOULD HAVE A GOOD              
CHANCE TO DEVELOP AS USUAL OVER NIGHT. STRONG SE FLOW WILL DEVELOP              
AT LOW LEVELS FRIDAY AFTERNOON SO NEW TAFS SHOULD REFLECT LOWER                 
CONDITIONS AT BKW IN AFTN.                                                      
PREV DISCUSSION...                                                              
 /ISSUED 147 PM EDT THU AUG 10 2006/                                            
LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...                                    
CHANGES FOR THIS PERIOD HAVE BEEN TO INCREASE POPS FOR THE EXTREME              
SE CORNER OF THE CWA FOR EARLY FRIDAY NIGHT...AND TO SLOW DOWN POPS             
AGAIN FOR THE COLD FRONT SLIDING ACROSS EARLY NEXT WEEK.                        
OVERALL...THE SLOWDOWN WAS BETWEEN 6 TO 12 HOURS FROM OUR PREVIOUS              
FORECAST ISSUANCE.                                                              
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT HAS BEEN SITUATED OVER THE NORTHEASTERN             
UNITED STATES FOR QUITE A WHILE...WILL BE TEMPORARILY TAKING A                  
VACATION...ALLOWING FOR THE RIDGE TO SLIDE OVER THE CENTRAL                     
APPALACHIANS AND                                                                
MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY...REALLY STARTING ON SATURDAY.  IN FACT...THE                
RIDGE SHOULD BE OVERHEAD 12Z MONDAY.  THIS WILL BE SHORT LIVED                  
THOUGH...WITH THE TROUGH SLIDING IN AGAIN WITH OUR COLD FRONT ON                
TUESDAY.                                                                        
THE NAM AND GFS BUTTING HEADS AGAIN TODAY...WITH THE NAM KEEPING                
ABUNDANT PRECIP IN THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND...AND THE              
GFS SWEEPING IN THE COOLER SFC HIGH FROM THE NORTH.  AS A RESULT OF             
THESE DISCREPANCIES...HAVE TAILORED THE FORECAST WITH A LEAN TOWARDS            
THE SLIGHTLY COOLER AND DRIER GFS.  FOR DAYS 4 THROUGH 7...MONDAY               
THROUGH THURSDAY...A GFS/ECMWF MIX WAS GENERALLY AGAIN PREFERRED.               
&&                                                                              
.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
WV...NONE.                                                                      
OH...NONE.                                                                      
KY...NONE.                                                                      
VA...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHORT TERM...RPY                                                                
AVIATION...RPY                                                                  
</PRE></TT></td>   wv                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV                                          
251 PM EDT THU AUG 10 2006                                                      
.SHORT TERM /REST OF TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...                                 
DIFFICULT FCST FOR THIS EVE THROUGH FRIDAY. BOTH GFS AND NAM SHOW               
DIV AT 250 AND 850 CONV VCNTY OF SRN PORTION OF THE CWA AT VARYING              
TIMES THIS EVENING INTO FRIDAY. THIS MAKES THE PLACEMENT AND                    
TIMING OF HIGHER POPS DIFFICULT. LOCAL WRF MODEL AND RUC ALSO                   
SUPPORT 250 DIV/850 CONV 23 TO 04Z TIME FRAME SO HAVE GONE WITH                 
LKLY POPS OVER THE SOUTH THEN. INCREASE POPS AGAIN AND SHIFT TO SE              
DURING FRIDAY AS THE UPPER FLOW SUPPORTS LIFT WHILE THE SOUTHEAST               
FLOW AT LOW LEVELS SHOULD PROMOTE UPSLOPE PCPN. HAVE LOWERED THE                
MAX TEMPS FOR FRIDAY ALSO IN LIGHT OF THE CLOUDS/PCPN ACROSS THE                
SOUTHERN HALF OF CWA.                                                           
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
CONDS EXPECTED TO LOWER TO MVFR THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT ACROSS                 
THE SOUTHERN HALF OF CWA IF PRECIPITATION DEVELOPS AS EXPECTED                  
DURING THE EARLY NIGHT. FOG IN MOUNTAIN VALLEYS SHOULD HAVE A GOOD              
CHANCE TO DEVELOP AS USUAL OVER NIGHT. STRONG SE FLOW WILL DEVELOP              
AT LOW LEVELS FRIDAY AFTERNOON SO NEW TAFS SHOULD REFLECT LOWER                 
CONDITIONS AT BKW IN AFTN.                                                      
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION...                                                             
 /ISSUED 147 PM EDT THU AUG 10 2006/                                            
LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...                                    
CHANGES FOR THIS PERIOD HAVE BEEN TO INCREASE POPS FOR THE EXTREME              
SE CORNER OF THE CWA FOR EARLY FRIDAY NIGHT...AND TO SLOW DOWN POPS             
AGAIN FOR THE COLD FRONT SLIDING ACROSS EARLY NEXT WEEK.                        
OVERALL...THE SLOWDOWN WAS BETWEEN 6 TO 12 HOURS FROM OUR PREVIOUS              
FORECAST ISSUANCE.                                                              
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT HAS BEEN SITUATED OVER THE NORTHEASTERN             
UNITED STATES FOR QUITE A WHILE...WILL BE TEMPORARILY TAKING A                  
VACATION...ALLOWING FOR THE RIDGE TO SLIDE OVER THE CENTRAL                     
APPALACHIANS AND                                                                
MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY...REALLY STARTING ON SATURDAY.  IN FACT...THE                
RIDGE SHOULD BE OVERHEAD 12Z MONDAY.  THIS WILL BE SHORT LIVED                  
THOUGH...WITH THE TROUGH SLIDING IN AGAIN WITH OUR COLD FRONT ON                
TUESDAY.                                                                        
THE NAM AND GFS BUTTING HEADS AGAIN TODAY...WITH THE NAM KEEPING                
ABUNDANT PRECIP IN THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND...AND THE              
GFS SWEEPING IN THE COOLER SFC HIGH FROM THE NORTH.  AS A RESULT OF             
THESE DISCREPANCIES...HAVE TAILORED THE FORECAST WITH A LEAN TOWARDS            
THE SLIGHTLY COOLER AND DRIER GFS.  FOR DAYS 4 THROUGH 7...MONDAY               
THROUGH THURSDAY...A GFS/ECMWF MIX WAS GENERALLY AGAIN PREFERRED.               
PREV DISCUSSION...                                                              
 /ISSUED 636 AM EDT THU AUG 10 2006/                                            
AVIATION...                                                                     
AS MENTIONED IN PREVIOUS AVIATION DISCUSSION...LOW LEVELS FAIRLY                
SATURATED. AS A RESULT...OVERNIGHT CLOUDS HAVE BEEN OBSERVED AT                 
MANY VARIOUS LEVELS AOB 50 THSD.                                                
ONE UPPER AIR FEATURE DID GENERATE THOSE SHOWERS AFTER 06Z..MAINLY              
CKB-MGW-EKN. THAT FEATURE SHOULD BE TRANSFERRING EAST OF MOUNTAINS              
AT START OF 12Z TAFS.                                                           
THINKING A LOT OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL CAUSE CEILINGS AT 1 TO 2              
THSD FT BKN/OVC 12Z-15Z. THAT SHOULD LIFT INTO 2 TO 4 THSD FT BKN/OVC           
AFTER 15Z. HARD TO PINPOINT ANY ENHANCED AREAS OF SHOWERS FOR                   
AFTERNOON. MOST CAPE AND INSTABILITY REMAIN FM HTS ON W. SOME MAIN              
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE TO OUR W...WITH MAINLY JUST SHOWERS HERE.               
HOLD WDSPRD 4 TO 6 MILES IN HAZE TODAY...WITH FOG FORMING AFTER                 
03Z FRI EKN-CRW.                                                                
PREV DISCUSSION...                                                              
 /ISSUED 431 AM EDT THU AUG 10 2006/                                            
SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT/...                                           
UPPER AIR DISTURBANCE CAUSING EARLY MORNING SHOWERS IN NRN                      
WV...COULD FORM DOWN THE MOUNTAINOUS COUNTIES TOO...BUT FEATURE                 
EXITS SHORTLY AFTER DAWN. ABUNDANT MOISTURE..SO THINKING CLOUDS COULD           
FORM AFTER SUNRISE WHERE THERE ARE FEW NOW. WINDS VEER INTO NW                  
TODAY. PROBLEM IS WHERE NEXT SUPPORT WILL BE. SOME HINTS OF VORT                
MAX IN CNTRL IL AT 07Z. DESPITE ABUNDANT CLOUDS FORECAST...KEPT                 
POPS SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN GUIDANCE FOR AFTERNOON...WITH THAT                    
SUPPORT PASSING. INSTABILITY AND CAPE HIGHEST HTS ON W AND S...SO               
NOT MUCH ENERGY FOR THUNDERSTORMS FOR NORTHERN COUNTIES. 4-6                    
MILES IN HAZE MAY LINGER THRU MUCH OF THE DAY...TO FIT THE LAST OF              
THE DOG DAY IMAGE.                                                              
DRIER AIR OOZES SOUTH TONIGHT. LOWERED/DRIED POPS FOR NORTHERN                  
COUNTIES BUT MADE LITTLE CHANGE TO SOUTHERN COUNTIES. FOG AND                   
STRATUS MAY FORM ESPECIALLY EKN-48I-CRW AFTER 04Z.                              
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...                                         
STILL SOME DISAGREEMENT IN MODELS THROUGH SATURDAY.  NAM INSISTS ON             
DUMPING ENERGY INTO MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY FRIDAY AND FRIDAY                 
NIGHT...GENERATING A STRONG SHORTWAVE SYSTEM WHICH DUMPS RAIN ON CWA            
THROUGH SATURDAY.  GFS AND MOST OTHER MODELS PAINT A WEAKER...MORE              
SUPPRESSED SCENARIO THAT ALLOWS DRIER AIRMASS TO PENETRATE SOUTHWARD            
MORE QUICKLY AND SUPPRESS VORT MAX TO A MORE SOUTHERLY TRACK.                   
CONSIDERING THE MODEL CONSENSUS...THE NAM STILL LOOKS MORE LIKE AN              
OUTLIER...BUT ITS STUBBORNNESS TO CHANGE STILL GIVES ME A BIT OF                
PAUSE.  AT ANY RATE...MODELS AGREE ON MOIST EASTERLY FLOW INTO AT               
LEAST THE SOUTHERN MOUNTAIN COUNTIES FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.                
THIS REQUIRES AT LEAST A SMALL INCREASE IN POPS.                                
FOR FRIDAY...KEEPING MOST POPS SOUTH OF I-64 CORRIDOR ALONG WITH                
QUICKER...MORE SOUTHERLY GFS TRACK. DRIER NORTH/NORTHEAST FLOW                  
GETTING INTO THE NORTHEAST COUNTIES SHOULD SUPPRESS PRECIP THERE.               
FLOW TURNS EAST/SOUTHEAST IN SOUTHERN COUNTIES BY FRIDAY NIGHT.                 
H500 WAVE ROUNDS BASE OF TROUGH 00Z-06Z SATURDAY...WHICH SHOULD BE              
BEST PERIOD FOR UPSLOPE ENHANCEMENT. FROM HERE ON...SLOW NORTH TO               
SOUTH DRYING TREND AS H500 TROUGH SLOWLY EXITS.  EXPECT PRECIP TO BE            
GONE BY 18Z SATURDAY...WITH A DRY AND PLEASANT REMAINDER OF THE                 
WEEKEND.  AGAIN...MODEL TREND IS CLEAR BUT NAM IS DIFFICULT TO                  
TOTALLY IGNORE.                                                                 
GENERALLY PREFERRED MET TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD...ALTHOUGH              
WENT COOLER FRIDAY/WARMER FRIDAY NIGHT IN THE SOUTH DUE TO THICKER              
CLOUD COVER/RAIN.                                                               
&&                                                                              
.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
WV...NONE.                                                                      
OH...NONE.                                                                      
KY...NONE.                                                                      
VA...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHORT TERM...AAR                                                                
AVIATION...AAR                                                                  
</PRE></TT></td>   wv                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY                                             
614 AM EDT FRI AUG 11 2006                                                      
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
EARLY THIS MORNING...A COLD FRONT EXTENDED FROM THE MID ATLANTIC WEST           
TO NEAR CRW AND THEN WEST NEAR THE INTERSTATE 64 CORRIDOR AND THEN NW           
INTO CENTRAL IL. A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WAS ALONG THE BOUNDARY OVER             
CENTRAL WV AND THE FRONT WAS DRIFTING SOUTH INTO THE CWA BEHIND THIS            
WAVE. NORTH OF THIS BOUNDARY COOL...CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDED             
SOUTH FROM THE HUDSON AND JAMES BAY REGIONS INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND            
UPPER THE OHIO VALLEY. DEWPOINTS NORTH OF THE OHIO RIVER WERE IN THE            
LOWER 60S...AS COMPARED TO THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S DEWPOINTS OVER            
THE JKL CWA. AT THE MID LEVELS...A SW/V WAS MOVING INTO THE MID MS              
VALLEY.                                                                         
THE ABOVE MENTIONED SW/V WILL APPROACH THE REGION NEAR PEAK HEATING             
AS THE COLD FRONT GRADUALLY SHIFTS SOUTH. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO RATHER            
WIDESPREAD CONVECTION BY THIS AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY OVER THE                   
SOUTHERN COUNTIES WHERE MOISTURE WILL BE DEEPEST. MODEL FORECAST                
SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT LOW TO MODERATE INSTABILITY OF 1400 TO 2100 J/KG        
SHOULD DEVELOP OVER THE SOUTHERN AREAS THIS AFTERNOON...WITH LI/S IN            
THE -3 TO -5 RANGE. SHEAR IS NOT PARTICULARLY STRONG...BUT STORM                
INTERACTIONS COULD LEAD TO A STORM OR TWO WITH GUSTY WINDS AND                  
POSSIBLY MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL. WITH PW/S OF 1.8" OR BETTER...LOCALLY          
HEAVY RAIN SHOULD BE THE MAIN FEATURE OF CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON              
AND EVENING. SCATTERED CONVECTION SHOULD LINGER IN THE SOUTHERN                 
COUNTIES UNTIL THE SW/V PASSES SOUTH OF THE REGION AROUND MIDDAY ON             
SATURDAY. TEMPS TODAY WERE A TOUGH CALL WITH EXTENT OF CLOUD COVER              
PLAYING A LARGE ROLE...BUT OPTED FOR THE HIGHER END OF GUIDANCE WHICH           
HAS VERIFIED BEST AS OF LATE. IF CLOUDS ARE SLOW TO REACH THE                   
SOUTHERN COUNTIES...TEMPS THERE COULD POSSIBLY APPROACH 90. LOWS                
TONIGHT WILL BE COOLER THAN RECENT NIGHTS...WITH THE COOLER AIR                 
WORKING INTO THE NORTH AND EASTERN COUNTIES FIRST. OPTED FOR THE                
HIGHER END OF GUIDANCE ON SAT AS WELL.                                          
THE COOLEST NIGHT SHOULD BE ON SAT NIGHT...AS THE CENTER OF THE HIGH            
PASSES TO THE EAST. LOWS SHOULD FALL INTO THE UPPER 50S IN THE                  
COLDEST SPOTS...WHILE RIDGE LOCATIONS HOLD IN THE MID 60S. SOME                 
FOG...ESPECIALLY VALLEY FOG MAY OCCUR...BUT DID NOT HIT REAL HARD AT            
THIS TIME. THE BEST CHANCE MAY BE OVER THE SOUTHWEST COUNTIES THAT              
HAVE RECEIVED THE MOST RAIN RECENTLY. TERRAIN DRIVEN ISOLATED                   
AFTERNOON CONVECTION CANNOT BE RULED ON SUN AS RETURN FLOW                      
BEGINS...ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTH. IN ADDITION...THE INVERSION MAY BE            
HIGH ENOUGH FOR ISOLATED RATHER SHALLOW SHOWERS BELOW THE INVERSION.            
EXTENDED...THE EXTENDED FORECAST LOOKED IN GOOD SHAPE AT THIS TIME.             
OVERALL...MAX TEMPS SHOULD BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL BASED ON                    
FORECAST 8H TEMPS...BUT GENERALLY ARE NOT EXPECTED TO REACH 90 AT               
THIS TIME. A COLD FRONT SHOULD CROSS THE REGION ON TUESDAY...WITH THE           
ECMWF AND GFS IN GENERALLY GOOD AGREEMENT.                                      
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION...                                                             
330 PM EDT THU AUG 10 2006                                                      
DISCUSSION...                                                                   
OUTFLOW FROM THE MCS OVER IA THIS MORNING IS NOW KICKING UP SOME VERY           
STRONG STORMS OVER SE IN. TOPS ON RADAR INDICATING OVER 60K WITH                
LITTLE INDICATION OF WEAKENING. TRACK OF STORMS WILL TAKE IT ACROSS             
ERN KY WITH IMPACT TO OCCUR AROUND 5 PM. WILL HAVE LIKELY POP TONIGHT           
AND FRI WITH THE PROGRESSION OF THIS SYSTEM AND THE FOLLOWING S/WV              
NOW OVER WRN IA. WAA HAS BOOSTED OUR HIGH TEMPS TODAY INTO THE UPPER            
80S N AND LOWER 90S SW. CLOUD COVER ON FRI WILL KEEP TEMPS DOWN                 
SLIGHTLY AND WILL ONLY FCST LOWER/MID 80S FOR FRI. HAVE GONE ABOVE              
MAV MOS FOR MOST OTHER TEMPS AS DRY AIR WILL KEEP DRY WX IN AREA AND            
DRY WX WILL HEAT UP BETTER. FOG IN VALLEYS AND RIDGE/VALLEY SPLIT TO            
MIN TEMPS LIKELY.                                                               
WEEKEND WX WILL FEATURE NO PCPN FROM SAT THRU MON AND TEMPS STARTING            
NEAR 80 AND BUILDING INTO THE UPPER 80S. NEXT SERIES OF S/WVS TO PUSH           
INTO ERN KY MON NITE THRU WED WITH CHC PCPN TO RETURN TO FCST AND               
THEN AS HIGH PRESS SHIFTS EAST TO NEW ENG NE FLOW WILL KEEP DRIER AND           
MORE STABLE AIR IN FCST. HAVE FOLLOWED GFS FOR THE LONG TERM FCST.              
1157 AM EDT THU AUG 10 2006                                                     
UPDATED THE ZONE PACKAGE THIS MORNING TO REFLECT MOST RECENT TRENDS             
CONCERNING THE REMNANTS OF AN MCS MOVING TOWARDS THE CENTRAL OHIO               
VALLEY THIS MORNING. IR SAT LOOPS SHOWING THIS SYSTEM REDEVELOPING              
TO THE EAST. CAN ALSO SEE DECENT COOLING OF CLOUD TOPS WITH THIS                
ACTIVITY. CORFIDI VECTORS WOULD SUGGEST THAT THIS FEATURE WILL RUSH             
SOUTHEASTWARD TODAY ALONG A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS              
OUR AREA. RUC ANALYSIS ALSO INDICATES A TONGUE OF INCREASINGLY                  
UNSTABLE AIR NOSING ITS WAY INTO EASTERN KENTUCKY...AT LEAST IN PART            
DUE TO THE LARGE AREA OF CLEARING TO OUR WEST. SINCE INGREDIENTS                
APPEAR TO BE COMING TOGETHER WENT AHEAD AND INCREASED POPS TO LIKELY            
FOR MUCH OF EASTERN KENTUCKY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING              
AS REMNANTS OF THE MCS PUSHES INTO THE AREA. SPC HAS ALSO PLACED                
EASTERN KENTUCKY IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER TODAY. FLOODING            
POTENTIAL WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE WITH HIGH PWS CLOSE TO 2 INCHES.               
HOWEVER...THREAT IS DIMINISHED SOMEWHAT WITH STEERING WINDS PICKING             
UP CONSIDERABLY THROUGH THE DAY.                                                
UPDATED ZONE PACKAGE ALREADY OUT.                                               
859 AM EDT THU AUG 10 2006                                                      
WILL ISSUE A QUICK UPDATE TO THE ZONES TO REMOVE THE DENSE FOG                  
ADVISORY. WHILE THERE ARE STILL A FEW SPOTS WITH PATCHY DENSE                   
FOG...COVERAGE IS NO LONGER EXTENSIVE ENOUGH TO WARRANT ANY                     
EXTENSION TO THE ADVISORY. HOWEVER...WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY MENTION             
OF PATCHY...LOCALLY DENSE FOG IN THE ZONES UNTIL MID MORNING UPDATE             
WHEN FOG WILL HAVE BURNED OFF.                                                  
UPDATE OUT SOON.                                                                
&&                                                                              
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                        
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
JP                                                                              
</PRE></TT></td>   ky                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
333 AM EDT FRI AUG 11 2006                                                      
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
THE MAIN CONCERN WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR                
PRECIPITATION TODAY AND THE TEMPERATURES.                                       
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC SHOWING A CLOSED LOW EMBEDDED IN A                  
LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER NORTHEAST CANADA...A RIDGE OVER CENTRAL CANADA             
AND THE NORTHERN PLAINS OF CONUS...AND ANOTHER LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER             
BRITISH COLUMBIA EXTENDING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. A WEAK                   
SHORTWAVE SLIDING DOWN THE LEE OF THE RIDGE IS MOVING THROUGH                   
MINNESOTA AND WISCONSIN INTO THE THE NORTHERN OHIO RIVER VALLEY.                
SURFACE ANALYSIS DEPICTS A FRONTAL SYSTEM STRETCHING FROM A LOW OVER            
THE MID ATLANTIC STATES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN OHIO RIVER VALLEY TO A              
LOW OVER OKLAHOMA. ANOTHER LOW IS DEVELOPING OVER THE MONTANA...WITH            
A COLD FRONT DRAPED SOUTHWEST INTO NORTHERN NEVADA. A LARGE DOME OF             
HIGH PRESSURE BLANKETS NORTHERN ONTARIO AND THE UPPER GREAT LAKES               
REGION PROVIDING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE AREA. ANOTHER WEAK               
SHORTWAVE DIGGING OVER SOUTHERN MINNESOTA IS FEEDING AN MCS IN THAT             
AREA.                                                                           
MODELS ARE IN REMARKABLE AGREEMENT ON THE TIMING ON THE NEXT SYSTEMS            
THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA FOR DAY 1 THROUGH 3. AFTER DAY THREE THE              
MODEL TIMING ARE STILL IN A FAIR AGREEMENT WITH SOME INTENSITY                  
VARIATIONS. GFS CONTINUES TO SHOW FAIRLY GOOD CONTINUITY SO WITH                
WHAT VARIATION THERE ARE...WILL FAVOR THE GFS AS PER HPC DISCUSSION.            
THE LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER WESTERN CANADA WILL MOVE EAST INTO ALBERTA             
TODAY PUSHING THE RIDGE INTO WESTERN ONTARIO. THE MINNESOTA                     
SHORTWAVE WILL REACH EASTERN MINNESOTA AND WESTERN WISCONSIN.                   
FORECAST SOUNDING SUGGEST DRY AIR WILL REMAIN OVER THE UPPER GREAT              
LAKES REGION AND ONTARIO. THERE MAY BE SOME CIRRUS AROUND 30K FEET.             
OTHERWISE...WILL BE LOOKING FOR PLENTY OF SUN ACROSS THE FORECAST               
AREA. SINCE THE IRONWOOD AREA WILL BE A LITTLE CLOSER TO THE                    
SHORTWAVE ENERGY...THERE WILL BE A LITTLE MORE MOISTURE IN THE LOW              
LEVELS IN THAT AREA.  THUS EXPECTING MORE LOW CLOUDS IN THAT                    
AREA...HOWEVER...IT SHOULD REMAIN DRY AND STABLE ENOUGH TO PREVENT              
ANY PRECIPITATION. THE MODELS TRAJECTORY FORECAST STILL DEPICT                  
DRAWING COOLER AIR INTO THE AREA FROM EASTERN ONTARIO TODAY.                    
HOWEVER...WITH THE INCREASED SUN THERE SHOULD BE SUBSTANTIAL SURFACE            
HEATING. THUS LOOKING FOR TEMPERATURES A LITTLE ABOVE GFS GUIDANCE.             
A CLOSED LOW WILL DEVELOP IN THE LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER WESTERN CANADA            
TONIGHT. THE LOW WILL DEEPEN OVER SASKATCHEWAN AND SHIFT INTO                   
NORTHERN MANITOBA SATURDAY NIGHT. MEANWHILE...THE RIDGE OVER CENTRAL            
CANADA WILL SLIP INTO CENTRAL ONTARIO. THE SURFACE RIDGE CONTINUE TO            
DOMINATE THE UPPER GREAT LAKES TONIGHT AND WILL GRADUALLY MOVE INTO             
THE LOWER GREAT LAKES BY SATURDAY NIGHT. THE SURFACE LOW WILL                   
DEVELOP UNDER THE MID LEVEL FEATURE AND MOVE TO NORTHERN MANITOBA AS            
WELL. FRONTOGENESIS OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL PRODUCE A COLD                
FRONT WHICH WILL EXTEND FROM THE MANITOBA LOW TO A LOW OVER WESTERN             
KANSAS BY SUNDAY MORNING. A WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE                
FORECAST AREA ON SATURDAY BUT DUE TO THE DRY AIR MASS...AND STABLE              
CONDITIONS AT THE LOW LEVELS...DO NOT EXPECT TO SEE ANY                         
PRECIPITATION. THE SOUNDING FORECAST INDICATES LAYER OF CUMULUS                 
CLOUDS OVER THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA EARLY SATURDAY...OTHERWISE FAIRLY            
DRY.                                                                            
THE LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER MANITOBA WILL SHIFT SLIGHTLY ON SUNDAY INTO            
EAST CENTRAL MANITOBA WHILE BREAKING DOWN THE RIDGE OVER THE UPPER              
GREAT LAKES. A WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL RELOCATE OVER UPPER                          
MICHIGAN...WHILE A STRONG DEEPER SHORTWAVE CONTINUES TO DIG OVER THE            
NORTHERN PLAINS. THE SURFACE LOW WILL PUSH INTO NORTHWEST ONTARIO               
DRAGGING THE COLD FRONT INTO WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR AND WESTERN U.P.             
ISENTROPIC ASCENT ACCOMPANYING THE FRONT...SHORTWAVE ENERGY AND                 
AVAILABLE MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT WILL GENERATE SCATTERED            
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE WEST AND CENTRAL U.P. ON SUNDAY.             
THE LOW OVER NORTHEAST MANITOBA WILL MANEUVER INTO NORTHERN ONTARIO             
SUNDAY NIGHT. A SHORTWAVE ROTATING THROUGH THE BASE OF THIS LOW WILL            
SWEEP ACROSS WESTERN ONTARIO AND MINNESOTA AND INTO NORTHERN                    
WISCONSIN. A DRY SLOT WILL SHIFT ACROSS THE AREA. GFS/NAM INDICATE              
THAT THE MID LEVEL LOW OVER ONTARIO WILL SHIFT A LITTLE SOUTH. WRAP             
AROUND MOISTURE WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA LATE SUNDAY                
NIGHT AND IN MONDAY. THUS WILL KEEP SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM                    
POTENTIAL IN THE FORECAST FORE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.                        
THE MID LEVEL LOW WILL SHIFT ACROSS CENTRAL ONTARIO MONDAY NIGHT.               
THE SHORTWAVE OVER THE FORECAST AREA ON MONDAY WILL WORK ITS WAY                
INTO EASTERN ONTARIO...WHILE DRY AIR CONTINUES TO ADVECT INTO THE               
AREA. THE COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE TOWARDS THE ATLANTIC STATES AS A                
RIDGE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS FINDS ITS WAY INTO THE MISSISSIPPI               
RIVER VALLEY. THE RIDGE WILL KEEP CONDITIONS FAIRLY DRY UNTIL THE               
NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY.                               
&&                                                                              
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                        
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
DLG                                                                             
</PRE></TT></td>   mi                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH                                          
627 AM EDT FRI AUG 11 2006                                                      
.AVIATION /12Z-12Z/...                                                          
CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS DEPICTS WEAK FRONT ACROSS NORTHERN                     
CENTRAL KENTUCKY THIS MORNING. RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS PRECIPITATION                
TRYING TO FILL IN. HAVE A VCSH IN KDAY AND TEMPO GROUPS AT KCVG                 
AND KLUK FOR MVFR CONDITIONS. KCMH AND KLCK SHOULD REMAIN DRY                   
WITH DRIER AIR WORKING IN ACROSS THE NORTH. SKIES WILL GRADUALLY                
CLEAR THIS EVENING INTO SATURDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL STAY UP A                  
BIT OVERNIGHT...SO FG/BR SHOULD NOT BE MUCH OF A PROBLEM                        
OVERNIGHT. JUST HAVE ADDED MVFR BR AT KCVG AND KLUK WITH THOSE                  
LOCATIONS DUE TO MORE RAINFALL. RLG                                             
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION...                                                             
 /ISSUED 225 AM EDT FRI AUG 11 2006/                                            
SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...                                            
PCPN TRYING TO FILL IN SOME ACROSS NORTHERN INDIANA THIS MORNING.               
THIS IS IN RESPONSE TO MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE DROPPING DOWN ACROSS THE            
AREA. SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES EXIST THOUGH WITH THE HANDLING OF THIS             
FEATURE AND ITS ASSOCIATED SURFACE WAVE. THE GFS APPEARS TOO                    
OVERDONE WITH ITS SURFACE AND 850 LOW/LOW LEVEL JET AT 06Z BASED ON             
CURRENT READINGS. HOWEVER ON THE OTHER HAND...NAM-WRF APPEARS TOO               
UNDERDONE BASED ON WHAT IS CURRENTLY GOING ON. AS A RESULT WILL TAKE            
A BIT OF A BLEND OF THE TWO...BUT LEAN CLOSER TO DRIER NAM-WRF AS               
THE GFS APPEARS TO BE CRANKING OUT WAY TOO MUCH PCPN THROUGH THE DAY            
TODAY. AT ANY RATE...AS WAVE PUSHES EAST SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE                  
DAY...WILL KEEP POPS IN CHANCE CATEGORY WITH HIGHEST POPS ACROSS THE            
SOUTH/WEST.                                                                     
COULD SEE A FEW SHOWERS LINGER INTO THIS EVENING ACROSS THE                     
SOUTHEAST BUT OVERALL...EXPECT A MAINLY DRY NIGHT WITH A GRADUAL                
CLEARING TREND. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD INTO THE AREA             
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM FOR MAINLY CLEAR SKIES.                 
CLOUDS SHOULD HELP KEEP TEMPS DOWN SOME TODAY...PARTICULARLY THROUGH            
EARLY AFTERNOON. WILL THEREFORE GO CLOSER TO COOLER MAV GUIDANCE FOR            
HIGHS TODAY...ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTH WHERE THE CLOUDS SHOULD BE THE            
MOST PREVALENT. THEN EXPECT TO SEE A SLOW WARM UP IN AFTERNOON HIGHS            
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS LOW LEVEL FLOW BECOMES MORE SOUTHERLY.                   
PREV DISCUSSIONS...                                                             
THE FOLLOWING WAS ISSUED AT 144 AM EDT FRI AUG 11 2006                          
AVIATION /06Z-06Z/...                                                           
CURRENT SURFACE MAP DEPICTS NEARLY STATIONARY BOUNDARY NEAR THE                 
OHIO RIVER. RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS LIGHT SHOWERS IN THE VICINITY OF                
THE FRONT. AN AREA OF HEAVIER SHOWERS WAS NOTED ACROSS NORTHERN                 
INDIANA. MODELS ARE NOT IN GOOD AGREEMENT THIS MORNING. THE GFS                 
IS QUITE A BIT WETTER THAN THE NAM/WRF. HAVE GONE WITH A                        
COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE TWO AND INCORPORATED LATEST RUC ANALYSIS.                
MODELS PRETTY CONSISTENT WITH PRECIPITATION OVER NORTHERN INDIANA               
DISSIPATING OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. NORTHERN TERMINALS SHOULD                  
REMAIN RELATIVELY DRY THROUGH THE PERIOD. A STRAY SHOWER IS                     
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE WEST...SO HAVE KEPT A VCSH AT KDAY AND KILN.                
SOME SUNRISE MVFR BR IS POSSIBLE AT THESE SITES...WITH KILN                     
DROPPING TO IFR THIS MORNING. KCVG AND KLUK WILL EXPERIENCE MVFR                
SHOWERS AND BR FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS. HAVE KEPT TEMPO GROUP FOR                
THIS BUT REMOVED VCTS AND CB MENTION THROUGH 10Z. KEPT CB MENTION               
AFTER SUNRISE WITH BOUNDARY LINGERING ACROSS THE AREA. THE                      
BOUNDARY WILL SLOWLY SAG SOUTH ALLOWING FOR DRIER TO WORK INTO                  
THE REGION TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD. HAVE GRADUALLY BEGAN TO                
SCATTER OUT LOW CLOUDS TOWARD THE END OF THE FORECAST. RLG                      
ISSUED 430 PM EDT THU AUG 10 2006                                               
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/                                           
SFC HI PRES WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH AND PROVIDE FOR A PLEASANT             
WEEKEND WITH SEASONABLE TEMPS.  POLAR VORTEX WILL HOLD OVER CANADIAN            
MARITIMES OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO ERLY NEXT WEEK...TRAPPED BTWN               
BROAD MID LVL RIDGE OVER CNTRL PLAINS AND RIDGE OVER NRN ATLC                   
OCEAN.  AS UPR LO BEGINS TO PULL NE AWAY FROM NRN NEW                           
ENGLAND...ANOTHER FAIRLY POTENT MID LVL S/WV WILL MOVE ALONG                    
US/CANADIAN BORDER MON AND TUES DRAGGING AN ATTENDANT COLD FRONT                
THRU REGION.  SUBTLE TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH FROPA BTWN EXTENDED                
MODELS...SO BROUGHT CHANCE POPS INTO NRN FCST AREA MON AFTN AND ACRS            
ENTIRE FCST AREA MON NIGHT.  FRNTL BNDRY WILL PUSH SE OF FCST AREA              
TUES AS ANOTHER PLEASANT CANADIAN HI PRES BUILDS INTO REGION.  HI               
PRES WILL THEN REMAIN ACRS REGION THRU END OF FCST PERIOD...WITH DRY            
WEATHER AND NEAR NORMAL TEMPS.                                                  
&&                                                                              
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
OH...NONE.                                                                      
KY...NONE.                                                                      
IN...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</PRE></TT></td>   oh                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OHIO                                         
625 AM EDT FRI AUG 11 2006                                                      
.SHORT TERM (TODAY)...                                                          
ADJUSTED WORDING FOR TODAY WITH THE SHOWERS OVER NORTHWEST OHIO AND             
THE SHOWERS THAT MAY BRUSH THE SW PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS             
AM. ALSO ADJUSTED THE WORDING OF THE CLOUDS IN THE NORTHEAST AREA.              
NORTHEAST FLOWS CAN BE TOUGH IN CAUSING CLOUDS IN INLAND NORTHEAST              
OHIO...WILL MENTION BECOMING PARTLY CLOUDY. THE CLOUDS OVER THE LAKE            
ARE NOT TOO BUBBLEY...THUS THREAT OF WATERSPOUTS SEEM VERY LOW. ALSO            
LOCAL WATERSPOUT SCHEME SAYS NORTHEAST FLOW IS TOUGH FOR THEM TO                
DEVELOP.                                                                        
SHORT TERM(TODAY-SUN)...                                                        
COLD FRONT SOUTH OF THE AREA WITH A NORTHEAST FLOW AND DRIER AIR                
MOVING IN. THE LAKE AND 850 MB TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCE AT 12Z WILL BE            
NEAR 13C AND REMAIN THAT WAY FOR THE DAY. WILL FORECAST PARTLY                  
CLOUDY THE ENTIRE CWA AS SOME CLOUDS BRUSHING THE SOUTHERN CWA FROM             
A VORT MAX THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA AND IN THE NORTH SOME                
LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS EVEN OVER NW OHIO BECAUSE THE FLOW IS NORTHEAST.             
ALL THE MODELS (NGM, WRF, GFS, RUC) INDICATING A THREAT OF SHOWERS              
NEAR THE LAKESHORE THROUGH 14Z BECAUSE OF CONVERGENCE...WILL GO WITH            
A 20 POP FOR THE LAKESHORE THIS MORNING. THE CANADIAN AND LOCAL                 
SCHEME INDICATE A WATERSPOUT THREAT BECAUSE OF COLD AIR OVER THE                
WARM LAKE AND SOME CONVERGENCE AS INDICATED BY RADAR AND SATELLITE.             
THE CONVERGENCE SEEMS TO BE DECREASING. THE THREAT SHOULD END BY                
NOON AS THE HIGH BUILDS IN. MAY MENTION A WATERSPOUT THREAT IN HWO.             
CLEARING TONIGHT AS THE 850 MB TEMPERATURE WARMS SOME AND DECREASES             
THE LAKE AND 850 MB TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCE TO ABOUT 10C DURING THE              
NIGHT. WITH THE LOCATION OF THE HIGH AND THE AIRMASS DRYING OUT SOME            
IT WILL BE OR BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR TONIGHT. PLENTY OF SUN SATURDAY               
AND SUNDAY.                                                                     
MAV GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES GENERALLY OK...MADE SOME MINOR                        
ADJUSTMENTS...A LITTLE WARMER SATURDAY AS THE HIGH BEGINS TO MOVE               
EAST AND SOUTHEAST FLOW RETURNS. THE MINIMUM TEMPERATURE FOR                    
SATURDAY NIGHT FROM THE MAV MAY BE A LITTLE TOO WARM IN THE EAST AND            
TOO COOL AT TOL.                                                                
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM (MON-THU)...                                                         
THE ECMWF IS A LITTLE FASTER WITH THE FRONT FOR MONDAY THAN THE GFS.            
NONE THE LESS THE THREAT FOR THE AFTERNOON AND NIGHT SHOULD BE OK.              
ACCORDING TO THE GFS THE CAPE AND LIS NOT THAT BAD. WILL MONITOR SPC            
DAY4-8 SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK. OTHERWISE DRY WEATHER.                           
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...                                                          
RELATIVELY QUIET PATTERN FOR THE EXTD WITH ONLY ONE COLD FRONT TO               
DEAL WITH MON AFTN/EVE.  OTHERWISE RIDGE SLOWLY BUILDING INTO THE               
REGION AND HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTRED OVER THE GREAT LAKES                   
TUE-THU.  NEAR NORMAL TEMPS.                                                    
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION(06Z-06Z)...                                                           
LAKE EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS DEVELOPING OVER CENTRAL LAKE ERIE MOVING               
SOUTHWEST TOWARD THE AREA.  WILL ACCOUNT FOR SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY AT            
CLEVELAND...ERIE...AND TOLEDO THIS MORNING.  REST OF THE AREAS                  
SHOULD REMAIN DRY THROUGH THE PERIOD.  WILL START MORNING OVER AREA             
WITH CLOUDS BUT REMAIN VFR THIS MORNING GIVING WAY TO SCATTERED                 
CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS DRIER AIR INFILTRATES THE AREA             
ALONG WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE.  HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH TOWARD THE            
AREA. WINDS WILL PICK UP TO 10 TO 20 KNOTS FROM THE NORTHEAST AS                
GRADIENT INCREASES DURING THE EARLY MORNING AND CONTINUE UNTIL EARLY            
EVENING WHEN THEY DIMINISH SLIGHTLY.                                            
&&                                                                              
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
.OH...NONE.                                                                     
.PA...NONE.                                                                     
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHORT TERM...KIELTYKA                                                           
LONG TERM...OUDEMAN/KIELTYKA                                                    
AVIATION...LOMBARDY                                                             
</PRE></TT></td>   oh                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OHIO                                         
355 AM EDT FRI AUG 11 2006                                                      
.SHORT TERM(TODAY-SUN)...                                                       
COLD FRONT SOUTH OF THE AREA WITH A NORTHEAST FLOW AND DRIER AIR                
MOVING IN. THE LAKE AND 850 MB TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCE AT 12Z WILL BE            
NEAR 13C AND REMAIN THAT WAY FOR THE DAY. WILL FORECAST PARTLY                  
CLOUDY THE ENTIRE CWA AS SOME CLOUDS BRUSHING THE SOUTHERN CWA FROM             
A VORT MAX THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA AND IN THE NORTH SOME                
LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS EVEN OVER NW OHIO BECAUSE THE FLOW IS NORTHEAST.             
ALL THE MODELS (NGM, WRF, GFS, RUC) INDICATING A THREAT OF SHOWERS              
NEAR THE LAKESHORE THROUGH 14Z BECAUSE OF CONVERGENCE...WILL GO WITH            
A 20 POP FOR THE LAKESHORE THIS MORNING. THE CANADIAN AND LOCAL                 
SCHEME INDICATE A WATERSPOUT THREAT BECAUSE OF COLD AIR OVER THE                
WARM LAKE AND SOME CONVERGENCE AS INDICATED BY RADAR AND SATELLITE.             
THE CONVERGENCE SEEMS TO BE DECREASING. THE THREAT SHOULD END BY                
NOON AS THE HIGH BUILDS IN. MAY MENTION A WATERSPOUT THREAT IN HWO.             
CLEARING TONIGHT AS THE 850 MB TEMPERATURE WARMS SOME AND DECREASES             
THE LAKE AND 850 MB TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCE TO ABOUT 10C DURING THE              
NIGHT. WITH THE LOCATION OF THE HIGH AND THE AIRMASS DRYING OUT SOME            
IT WILL BE OR BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR TONIGHT. PLENTY OF SUN SATURDAY               
AND SUNDAY.                                                                     
MAV GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES GENERALLY OK...MADE SOME MINOR                        
ADJUSTMENTS...A LITTLE WARMER SATURDAY AS THE HIGH BEGINS TO MOVE               
EAST AND SOUTHEAST FLOW RETURNS. THE MINIMUM TEMPERATURE FOR                    
SATURDAY NIGHT FROM THE MAV MAY BE A LITTLE TOO WARM IN THE EAST AND            
TOO COOL AT TOL.                                                                
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM (MON-THU)...                                                         
THE ECMWF IS A LITTLE FASTER WITH THE FRONT FOR MONDAY THAN THE GFS.            
NONE THE LESS THE THREAT FOR THE AFTERNOON AND NIGHT SHOULD BE OK.              
ACCORDING TO THE GFS THE CAPE AND LIS NOT THAT BAD. WILL MONITOR SPC            
DAY4-8 SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK. OTHERWISE DRY WEATHER.                           
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...                                                          
RELATIVELY QUIET PATTERN FOR THE EXTD WITH ONLY ONE COLD FRONT TO               
DEAL WITH MON AFTN/EVE.  OTHERWISE RIDGE SLOWLY BUILDING INTO THE               
REGION AND HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTRED OVER THE GREAT LAKES                   
TUE-THU.  NEAR NORMAL TEMPS.                                                    
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION(06Z-06Z)...                                                           
LAKE EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS DEVELOPING OVER CENTRAL LAKE ERIE MOVING               
SOUTHWEST TOWARD THE AREA.  WILL ACCOUNT FOR SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY AT            
CLEVELAND...ERIE...AND TOLEDO THIS MORNING.  REST OF THE AREAS                  
SHOULD REMAIN DRY THROUGH THE PERIOD.  WILL START MORNING OVER AREA             
WITH CLOUDS BUT REMAIN VFR THIS MORNING GIVING WAY TO SCATTERED                 
CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS DRIER AIR INFILTRATES THE AREA             
ALONG WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE.  HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH TOWARD THE            
AREA. WINDS WILL PICK UP TO 10 TO 20 KNOTS FROM THE NORTHEAST AS                
GRADIENT INCREASES DURING THE EARLY MORNING AND CONTINUE UNTIL EARLY            
EVENING WHEN THEY DIMINISH SLIGHTLY.                                            
&&                                                                              
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
.OH...NONE.                                                                     
.PA...NONE.                                                                     
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHORT TERM...KIELTYKA                                                           
LONG TERM...OUDEMAN/KIELTYKA                                                    
AVIATION...LOMBARDY                                                             
</PRE></TT></td>   oh                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH                                          
225 AM EDT FRI AUG 11 2006                                                      
.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...                                           
PCPN TRYING TO FILL IN SOME ACROSS NORTHERN INDIANA THIS MORNING.               
THIS IS IN RESPONSE TO MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE DROPPING DOWN ACROSS THE            
AREA. SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES EXIST THOUGH WITH THE HANDLING OF THIS             
FEATURE AND ITS ASSOCIATED SURFACE WAVE. THE GFS APPEARS TOO                    
OVERDONE WITH ITS SURFACE AND 850 LOW/LOW LEVEL JET AT 06Z BASED ON             
CURRENT READINGS. HOWEVER ON THE OTHER HAND...NAM-WRF APPEARS TOO               
UNDERDONE BASED ON WHAT IS CURRENTLY GOING ON. AS A RESULT WILL TAKE            
A BIT OF A BLEND OF THE TWO...BUT LEAN CLOSER TO DRIER NAM-WRF AS               
THE GFS APPEARS TO BE CRANKING OUT WAY TOO MUCH PCPN THROUGH THE DAY            
TODAY. AT ANY RATE...AS WAVE PUSHES EAST SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE                  
DAY...WILL KEEP POPS IN CHANCE CATEGORY WITH HIGHEST POPS ACROSS THE            
SOUTH/WEST.                                                                     
COULD SEE A FEW SHOWERS LINGER INTO THIS EVENING ACROSS THE                     
SOUTHEAST BUT OVERALL...EXPECT A MAINLY DRY NIGHT WITH A GRADUAL                
CLEARING TREND. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD INTO THE AREA             
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM FOR MAINLY CLEAR SKIES.                 
CLOUDS SHOULD HELP KEEP TEMPS DOWN SOME TODAY...PARTICULARLY THROUGH            
EARLY AFTERNOON. WILL THEREFORE GO CLOSER TO COOLER MAV GUIDANCE FOR            
HIGHS TODAY...ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTH WHERE THE CLOUDS SHOULD BE THE            
MOST PREVALENT. THEN EXPECT TO SEE A SLOW WARM UP IN AFTERNOON HIGHS            
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS LOW LEVEL FLOW BECOMES MORE SOUTHERLY.                   
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSIONS...                                                            
THE FOLLOWING WAS ISSUED AT 144 AM EDT FRI AUG 11 2006                          
AVIATION /06Z-06Z/...                                                           
CURRENT SURFACE MAP DEPICTS NEARLY STATIONARY BOUNDARY NEAR THE                 
OHIO RIVER. RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS LIGHT SHOWERS IN THE VICINITY OF                
THE FRONT. AN AREA OF HEAVIER SHOWERS WAS NOTED ACROSS NORTHERN                 
INDIANA. MODELS ARE NOT IN GOOD AGREEMENT THIS MORNING. THE GFS                 
IS QUITE A BIT WETTER THAN THE NAM/WRF. HAVE GONE WITH A                        
COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE TWO AND INCORPORATED LATEST RUC ANALYSIS.                
MODELS PRETTY CONSISTENT WITH PRECIPITATION OVER NORTHERN INDIANA               
DISSIPATING OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. NORTHERN TERMINALS SHOULD                  
REMAIN RELATIVELY DRY THROUGH THE PERIOD. A STRAY SHOWER IS                     
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE WEST...SO HAVE KEPT A VCSH AT KDAY AND KILN.                
SOME SUNRISE MVFR BR IS POSSIBLE AT THESE SITES...WITH KILN                     
DROPPING TO IFR THIS MORNING. KCVG AND KLUK WILL EXPERIENCE MVFR                
SHOWERS AND BR FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS. HAVE KEPT TEMPO GROUP FOR                
THIS BUT REMOVED VCTS AND CB MENTION THROUGH 10Z. KEPT CB MENTION               
AFTER SUNRISE WITH BOUNDARY LINGERING ACROSS THE AREA. THE                      
BOUNDARY WILL SLOWLY SAG SOUTH ALLOWING FOR DRIER TO WORK INTO                  
THE REGION TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD. HAVE GRADUALLY BEGAN TO                
SCATTER OUT LOW CLOUDS TOWARD THE END OF THE FORECAST. RLG                      
ISSUED 430 PM EDT THU AUG 10 2006                                               
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/                                           
SFC HI PRES WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH AND PROVIDE FOR A PLEASANT             
WEEKEND WITH SEASONABLE TEMPS.  POLAR VORTEX WILL HOLD OVER CANADIAN            
MARITIMES OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO ERLY NEXT WEEK...TRAPPED BTWN               
BROAD MID LVL RIDGE OVER CNTRL PLAINS AND RIDGE OVER NRN ATLC                   
OCEAN.  AS UPR LO BEGINS TO PULL NE AWAY FROM NRN NEW                           
ENGLAND...ANOTHER FAIRLY POTENT MID LVL S/WV WILL MOVE ALONG                    
US/CANADIAN BORDER MON AND TUES DRAGGING AN ATTENDANT COLD FRONT                
THRU REGION.  SUBTLE TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH FROPA BTWN EXTENDED                
MODELS...SO BROUGHT CHANCE POPS INTO NRN FCST AREA MON AFTN AND ACRS            
ENTIRE FCST AREA MON NIGHT.  FRNTL BNDRY WILL PUSH SE OF FCST AREA              
TUES AS ANOTHER PLEASANT CANADIAN HI PRES BUILDS INTO REGION.  HI               
PRES WILL THEN REMAIN ACRS REGION THRU END OF FCST PERIOD...WITH DRY            
WEATHER AND NEAR NORMAL TEMPS.                                                  
&&                                                                              
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
OH...NONE.                                                                      
KY...NONE.                                                                      
IN...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</PRE></TT></td>   oh                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH                                          
144 AM EDT FRI AUG 11 2006                                                      
.AVIATION /06Z-06Z/...                                                          
CURRENT SURFACE MAP DEPICTS NEARLY STATIONARY BOUNDARY NEAR THE                 
OHIO RIVER. RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS LIGHT SHOWERS IN THE VICINITY OF                
THE FRONT. AN AREA OF HEAVIER SHOWERS WAS NOTED ACROSS NORTHERN                 
INDIANA. MODELS ARE NOT IN GOOD AGREEMENT THIS MORNING. THE GFS                 
IS QUITE A BIT WETTER THAN THE NAM/WRF. HAVE GONE WITH A                        
COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE TWO AND INCORPORATED LATEST RUC ANALYSIS.                
MODELS PRETTY CONSISTENT WITH PRECIPITATION OVER NORTHERN INDIANA               
DISSIPATING OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. NORTHERN TERMINALS SHOULD                  
REMAIN RELATIVELY DRY THROUGH THE PERIOD. A STRAY SHOWER IS                     
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE WEST...SO HAVE KEPT A VCSH AT KDAY AND KILN.                
SOME SUNRISE MVFR BR IS POSSIBLE AT THESE SITES...WITH KILN                     
DROPPING TO IFR THIS MORNING. KCVG AND KLUK WILL EXPERIENCE MVFR                
SHOWERS AND BR FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS. HAVE KEPT TEMPO GROUP FOR                
THIS BUT REMOVED VCTS AND CB MENTION THROUGH 10Z. KEPT CB MENTION               
AFTER SUNRISE WITH BOUNDARY LINGERING ACROSS THE AREA. THE                      
BOUNDARY WILL SLOWLY SAG SOUTH ALLOWING FOR DRIER TO WORK INTO                  
THE REGION TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD. HAVE GRADUALLY BEGAN TO                
SCATTER OUT LOW CLOUDS TOWARD THE END OF THE FORECAST. RLG                      
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION...                                                             
 /ISSUED 945 PM EDT THU AUG 10 2006/                                            
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...                                                         
CONVECTION IS FIRING AROUND CVG METRO AREA AND ALONG A BOUNDARY                 
LOCATED JUST NW OF KDAY...STRETCHING SE. DO NOT THINK THAT THIS WILL            
BE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY...BUT THIS SECOND ROUND OF SHOWERS WILL GET            
ITS MID LEVEL FORCING AND ANY INSTABILITY FROM UPSTREAM WHICH IS                
HARD TO GAUGE CONSIDERING THERE AREN'T MANY STORMS ATTM. WILL NOT               
REMOVE THUNDER...AND THE WIDELY SCT NATURE OF THESE STORMS WILL                 
BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD AS THE EVENING PROGRESSES. THIS SHOULD OCCUR             
WHERE THEY ARE FIRING ATTM ALONG A VANCEBURG...GEORGETOWN...METRO               
CINCY...I-74 LINE. THIS IS HANDLED WITH CURRENT FORECAST AND I'M NOT            
GOING TO CHANGE THE CATEGORICAL CHANCES OF PRECIP OVER THE SW THAT              
ARE FOUND LATER OVERNIGHT JUST BECAUSE IT'S STARTING OUT SLOW.                  
UPDATE THIS EVENING IS MAINLY COSMETIC...MAY BRING IN THE HIGHER                
CHANCE OF PREICP A LITTLE EARLIER AS THE ACTIVITY ALONG OHRIVER IS              
REALLY GETTING GOING AND SHOULD BE FARILY PERSISTENT OVERNIGHT.                 
FRANKS                                                                          
AVIATION /0Z-0Z/...                                                             
MAJORITY OF SHOWER ACTIVITY TONIGHT AND TOMORROW IS EXPECTED TO                 
REMAIN IN SW FCST AREA OUTSIDE OF TAF SITES. CVG WILL GET INTO                  
ACTIVITY THE LONGEST...BUT UNCERTAINTY IS STILL STRONG ON THE                   
PLACEMENT OF THE AXIS OF PRECIP FROM EXPECTED MCS. NERN EXTENT OF               
PREICP WILL HAVE A STRONG CUTOFF WITH DRIER NE WINDS BEING                      
ENTRAINED...BUT THIS ALSO WILL DEPEND ON WHERE AXIS OF MID LEVEL                
LIFT SETS UP. TRACK OF SFC LOW CONTINUES TO BE IN QUESTION...BUT                
MODELS AGREE THAT THE NE SIDE OF SFC LOW (CLOSER TO H5 VORT AXIS)               
WILL BE THE AREA FOR THE MCS TO TRACK TONIGHT AND EARLY FRI.                    
NAM12 HAS A GOOD HANDLE ON QPF FIELDS ATTM...AND IS INDICATING THE              
LINE OF INSTABILITY CURRENTLY RUNNING FORM PKB AND S OF ZZV THRU CMH            
AND FWA TOWARDS VPZ WILL SEE ACTIVITY FOR A PERIOD OVERNIGHT. IT                
ALSO PROGS THAT THIS WILL BE ALL OF THE ACTIVITY OVER CWA THROUGH               
12Z WITH THE EXCEPTION OF FAR SW. UNLESS SHOWERS FILL IN ON THIS                
LINE...WILL PLAY DOWN THE THREAT FOR CONVECTION OVER NERN 1/2 OF                
FCST AREA AND AMEND IF NECESSARY. AM ALSO CURRENTLY SEEING SHOWER               
ACTIVITY REMAINING OUT OF CVG FOR AT LEAST THE BEGINNING OF VALID               
TAFS.                                                                           
FRANKS                                                                          
PREVIOUS DISCUSSIONS...                                                         
ISSUED 430 PM EDT THU AUG 10 2006                                               
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/                                       
CONVECTION MOVING ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHWEST ZONES WILL BE MOVING                 
OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA SOON. REMNANTS FROM THE MORNING MCS THAT               
OCCURRED TO OUR NORTHWEST CONTINUE TO TRACK ACROSS THE REGION AS                
WELL. BUT THEY SHOULD CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AND MOVE OUT OF THE AREA               
LATE THIS AFTERNOON TOO.                                                        
THEN THE QUESTION BECOMES WHEN AND WHERE CONVECTIVE REDEVELOPMENT               
WILL OCCUR. THERE IS CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY IN THIS REGARD.                   
MODEL CONSENSUS SAYS THAT CINCINNATI AND AREAS SOUTH AND WEST WILL              
SEE ANOTHER ROUND OF STORMS LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. SOME              
HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE THERE. FROM THAT AREA THERE SHOULD              
BE A FAIRLY STRONG GRADIENT IN PRECIPITATION TO THE NORTHEAST.                  
HAVE DRAWN POPS IN A SIMILAR MANNER ALTHOUGH THERE IS THE                       
POTENTIAL OF LIGHTER PRECIPITATION OVER MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA.              
AN ADDITIONAL SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION                  
TOMORROW. IN THE WAKE OF THIS THERE WILL BE AN IMPROVEMENT IN                   
CONDITIONS FROM NORTH TO SOUTH ALTHOUGH SOME PRECIPITATION MAY                  
LINGER INTO FRIDAY EVENING IN THE FAR SOUTHERN ZONES. EXPECT                    
SUFFICIENT CLOUD COVER ALONG WITH COLD ADVECTION TO KEEP                        
TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S ON FRIDAY.                                              
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/                                           
SFC HI PRES WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH AND PROVIDE FOR A PLEASANT             
WEEKEND WITH SEASONABLE TEMPS.  POLAR VORTEX WILL HOLD OVER CANADIAN            
MARITIMES OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO ERLY NEXT WEEK...TRAPPED BTWN               
BROAD MID LVL RIDGE OVER CNTRL PLAINS AND RIDGE OVER NRN ATLC                   
OCEAN.  AS UPR LO BEGINS TO PULL NE AWAY FROM NRN NEW                           
ENGLAND...ANOTHER FAIRLY POTENT MID LVL S/WV WILL MOVE ALONG                    
US/CANADIAN BORDER MON AND TUES DRAGGING AN ATTENDANT COLD FRONT                
THRU REGION.  SUBTLE TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH FROPA BTWN EXTENDED                
MODELS...SO BROUGHT CHANCE POPS INTO NRN FCST AREA MON AFTN AND ACRS            
ENTIRE FCST AREA MON NIGHT.  FRNTL BNDRY WILL PUSH SE OF FCST AREA              
TUES AS ANOTHER PLEASANT CANADIAN HI PRES BUILDS INTO REGION.  HI               
PRES WILL THEN REMAIN ACRS REGION THRU END OF FCST PERIOD...WITH DRY            
WEATHER AND NEAR NORMAL TEMPS.                                                  
RYAN                                                                            
&&                                                                              
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
OH...NONE.                                                                      
KY...NONE.                                                                      
IN...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</PRE></TT></td>   oh                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA                                           
443 AM EDT FRI AUG 11 2006                                                      
.SHORT TERM/TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY...CURRENTLY SFC COLD FRONT                   
LOCATED JUST TO OUR NORTH...AND WILL SLOWLY SAG SOUTHWARD TODAY.                
SHORT TERM 00Z RUN MODELS/ESPECIALLY THE NAM/WRF HAVE INITIALIZED               
POORLY ACRS THE ERN CONUS AND NEITHER THE GFS OR THE NAM/WRF                    
PICKED UP ON MCS ACTIVITY ACRS WRN NC EARLIER. A FEW STRAY                      
SHWRS/TSTMS HAVE HELD TOGETHER THRU SCNTRL VA AND LOOK TO MOVE                  
INTO PIEDMNT CNTYS OVR THE NXT FEW HRS. OVERALL...FOR TODAY HAVE                
FOLLOWED RUC DUE TO POOR INITIALIZATION OF GFS AND WRF. NNE FLOW                
IN LOW LVLS SHOULD KEEP SKIES MSTLY CLDY EXCEPT FOR N/NE ZONES                  
CLOSER TO THE DRIER AIR WHERE SKIES LOOK TO BECOME PTLY SNNY AFTER              
INITIAL LOW CLDS MIX OUT. AS FOR TEMPS WENT A BIT COOLER THAN GDNC              
DUE TO THE CLDS AND NNE FLOW...MOST AREAS LOOK TO MAX OUT CLOSE TO              
80F. SFC BASED INSTABALITY NOT REAL IMPRESSIVE TODAY BUT WITH                   
MODERATELY STEEP MID LVL LAPSE RATES ABOUT 6.5C MVG THRU LATER                  
THIS AFTN/EVENG WITH NXT SHORTWAVE WILL STILL MENTION AT LEAST ISO              
THUNDER FOR MOST ZONES. POP WISE HAVE GONE DRY IN MD TO 50% SCTD                
ACRS SW ZONES CLOSEST TO APPCHG SHTWAVE FROM TN/OH VLY.                         
TONIGHT...CONTD LKLY POPS IN FAR SRN ZONES FOR THE EVENG HRS AS                 
THIS APPEARS TO BE TIME OF BEST LOW LVL CONV AND UPR DIV FROM RRQ               
OF DEPARTING UPR JET. FARTHER NORTH POPS ARE MUCH LWR (20-30%) AS               
MORE STABLE AIR WILL LIKELY HAVE MOVED IN FROM THE NORTH (AND                   
CONTD WITH DRY FCST IN MD). GNRLY FAVORED A SOLN BETWN GFS WHICH                
LOOKS FAR TOO HIGH WITH THE QPF AND NAM WHICH IS TOO FAR SOUTH                  
WITH PRECIP DUE TO POOR INITIALIZATION OF THE SHORTWAVE ENERGY TO               
OUR WEST. SKIES BECOME MSTLY CLR N AND PCDY SOUTH TWDS DAYBRK.                  
SAT...ASIDE FROM LINGERING LOW CLDS EARLY MAINLY NEAR VA/NC                     
BORDER SAT LOOKS TO BE A NICE PTLY TO MSNNY DAY WITH TEMPS WELL                 
BELOW NRML FOR MID AUGUST...HIGHS ONLY IN UPR 70S TO LWR 80S FOR                
THE MOST PART. SAT NGT SKIES BECOME CLR ALL ZONES AS SFC HIGH                   
SETTLES OVER THE MID ATLC. TEMPS MAY CHALLENGE REC LOWS AT NORMALLY             
COOL SBY ASOS. MOST AREAS WILL DIP INTO 50S FOR 1ST TIME IN QUITE               
AWHILE...GNRLY IN MID/UPR 60S ALONG SE VA/NC COAST.                             
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM/SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH STRG         
HIGH PRESSURE CNTRD OVER REGION SUNDAY...SLIDING OFFSHORE INTO                  
ERLY NXT WEEK. TWEAKED TEMPS DOWN A FEW DGRS SUNDAY AND SUN                     
NGT...BUT OTHERWISE HAVE MADE NO CHNGES AS IT LOOKS LIKE A FAIRLY               
QUIET PERIOD UNTIL TUE/WED AS NXT FRONT APPROACHES.                             
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
WIDESPREAD MVFR VSBYS (3-5SM) EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH SCATTERED               
AREAS OF IFR OR 1-2SM VSBYS...WILL GRADUALLY GIVE WAY TO VFR                    
CONDITIONS FOR THE MOST PART BY 13-15Z THIS MORNING. THE EXCEPTION              
WILL BE OCCASIONAL MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN AREAS OF RAIN...PARTICULARLY              
ALONG THE LOWER CHES BAY/MID ATLC COAST WITH THE MOIST NE FLOW.                 
&&                                                                              
.MARINE...                                                                      
WILL HAVE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES HOISTED IN ALL AREAS TODAY AND                 
TONIGHT. SUSPECT THERE WILL BE AN INITIAL SURGE TODAY...THEN ANOTHER            
ONE SAT MORNING AS THE LOW DEPARTS OFF THE MID ATLC COAST AND LEADS             
TO A SECONDARY EPISODE OF 900-800 MB COOLING ON THE BACKSIDE. NE                
FLOW MAY ABATE A LITTLE OVERNIGHT BEFORE THE LOW MOVES OFF THE                  
COAST...HOWEVER STRONG OVER-WATER INSTBY/VIGOROUS MIXING SHOULD KEEP            
CONDITIONS AT THE VERY LEAST NEAR THE BOTTOM END OF SCA CRITERIA.               
THEREFORE HAVE OPTED TO KEEP SCA'S GOING THROUGH SATURDAY OVER ALL              
WATERS...AND THROUGH EARLY SUN OVER THE SRN CSTL WATERS..SHORT TERM /TODAY/...  
&&                                                                              
.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
MD...NONE.                                                                      
NC...NONE.                                                                      
VA...NONE.                                                                      
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ANZ630>632 FROM 8 AM FRIDAY TO 4 PM           
     SATURDAY.                                                                  
  ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ANZ633 FROM 2 PM FRIDAY TO 4 PM                   
     SATURDAY.                                                                  
  ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ANZ654 FROM NOON FRIDAY TO 6 AM                   
     SUNDAY.                                                                    
  ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ANZ650-652 FROM NOON FRIDAY TO                    
     MIDNIGHT SUNDAY.                                                           
  ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ANZ656-658 FROM 5 PM FRIDAY TO 11 AM              
     SUNDAY.                                                                    
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHORT TERM...BROWN                                                              
LONG TERM...BROWN                                                               
AVIATION...HURLEY                                                               
MARINE...HURLEY                                                                 
</PRE></TT></td>   va                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV                                          
400 AM EDT FRI AUG 11 2006                                                      
.SHORT TERM /REST OF TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT/...                                  
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVING ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES                   
PRODUCED AS MUCH AS 3-4 INCHES OF RAIN OVERNIGHT...BASED ON RAIN                
GAUGES AND KFCX WSR-88D RADAR.  DID NOT RECEIVE ANY REPORTS OF MAJOR            
FLOODING.  HOWEVER...THE WATER DID FLOOD QUITE A FEW OF THE ROADS               
ACROSS PORTIONS OF LOGAN AND WYOMING COUNTIES.                                  
THESE STORMS APPEAR TO HAVE BEEN GENERATED BY A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE             
TROF WHICH COULD NOT REALLY BE SEEN IN THE SATELLITE IMAGERY...UNTIL            
THE STORMS HAD FORMED.                                                          
THIS TROF HAS PUSHED SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA...WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN             
A BREAK IN THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.  HOWEVER...ANOTHER                    
SHORTWAVE TROF IS CURRENTLY MOVING INTO WESTERN OHIO AT THIS TIME.              
THIS FEATURE SHOULD RESULT IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING              
ONCE AGAIN...ESPECIALLY ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES.                           
HAVE BUMPED UP POPS TO CATEGORICAL ACROSS OUR NORTHWEST VA COUNTIES             
FOR TODAY                                                                       
DRIER AIR WILL FILTER IN FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...RESULTING             
IN THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ENDING WITH CLEARING SKIES FROM NORTH OT                
SOUTH.                                                                          
TEMP GUIDANCE FOR TODAY APPEARS TO BE ON TRACK AND HAVE GENERALLY               
FOLLOWED.  HOWEVER...LATEST GUIDANCE WAS COOLER WITH LOWS TONIGHT               
AND HAVE TWEAKED THE OVERNIGHT LOWS DOWN TO REFLECT THIS TREND.                 
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...                                       
MODELS EXIT COOL FRONT TO THE SOUTH EARLY SATURDAY MORNING...WITH               
ANY LEFT OVER SHOWERS IN THE FAR SOUTH ENDING BY NOON.                          
OTHERWISE...HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER CENTRAL CANADA EARLY                    
SATURDAY RIDGES SOUTHWARD INTO OUR REGION FOR THE WEEKEND...BRINGING            
DRY AND NEAR SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND.                              
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON A COLD FRONT THAT CROSSES OUR REGION            
TUESDAY. LOOKS TO BE A STRONG ENOUGH UPPER TROUGH MOVING EASTWARD               
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY TO SUPPORT AT LEAST SCATTERED            
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY NIGHT...AND ESPECIALLY TUESDAY...              
AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THIS FRONT GETS A GOOD PUSH SOUTH OF OUR AREA BY            
WEDNESDAY WITH RATHER STRONG CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE AGAIN RIDGING               
SOUTHWARD INTO OUR REGION. THIS WILL BRING BACK DRIER WEATHER AND               
NEAR SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES BY MID WEEK.                                       
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION...                                                             
 /ISSUED 225 AM EDT FRI AUG 11 2006/                                            
AVIATION...                                                                     
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH PORTIONS OF                  
SOUTHERN WV...NORTHEAST KY AND SOUTHWEST VA SHOULD CONTINUE TO PUSH             
SOUTHEAST THIS MORNING.  CONDITIONS NEAR THESE STORMS WILL GENERALLY            
BE IN THE IFR/LIFR CATEGORIES...WITH VFR/MVFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE             
NORTH.                                                                          
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TODAY ACROSS THE              
SOUTH WITH IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS IN AND NEAR THE STORMS.  ACROSS THE              
NORTH...VFR/MVFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL.                                     
DRIER AIR WILL BEGIN TO BUILD IN LATE THIS AFTERNOON WHICH WILL                 
RESULT IN DECREASING PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND IMPROVING CONDITIONS             
ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA AFTER DARK TONIGHT.                                      
PREV DISCUSSION...                                                              
 /ISSUED 805 PM EDT THU AUG 10 2006/                                            
SHORT TERM /REST OF TONIGHT/...                                                 
WILL UPDATE FORECAST TO LOWER POPS THIS EVENING BASED ON CURRENT                
RADAR TRENDS.                                                                   
AVIATION...                                                                     
EXPECT WIDESPREAD HAZE AND LIGHT FOG TONIGHT...WITH A FEW LOCATIONS             
HAVING PATCHY DENSE FOG. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS COULD DEVELOP LATE                 
TONIGHT. ADDITIONAL SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED FRIDAY              
AFTERNOON...MAINLY OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN AREAS OF THE REGION.               
PREV DISCUSSION...                                                              
 /ISSUED 251 PM EDT THU AUG 10 2006/                                            
SHORT TERM /REST OF TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...                                  
DIFFICULT FCST FOR THIS EVE THROUGH FRIDAY. BOTH GFS AND NAM SHOW               
DIV AT 250 AND 850 CONV VCNTY OF SRN PORTION OF THE CWA AT VARYING              
TIMES THIS EVENING INTO FRIDAY. THIS MAKES THE PLACEMENT AND                    
TIMING OF HIGHER POPS DIFFICULT. LOCAL WRF MODEL AND RUC ALSO                   
SUPPORT 250 DIV/850 CONV 23 TO 04Z TIME FRAME SO HAVE GONE WITH                 
LKLY POPS OVER THE SOUTH THEN. INCREASE POPS AGAIN AND SHIFT TO SE              
DURING FRIDAY AS THE UPPER FLOW SUPPORTS LIFT WHILE THE SOUTHEAST               
FLOW AT LOW LEVELS SHOULD PROMOTE UPSLOPE PCPN. HAVE LOWERED THE                
MAX TEMPS FOR FRIDAY ALSO IN LIGHT OF THE CLOUDS/PCPN ACROSS THE                
SOUTHERN HALF OF CWA.                                                           
PREV DISCUSSION...                                                              
 /ISSUED 147 PM EDT THU AUG 10 2006/                                            
LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...                                    
CHANGES FOR THIS PERIOD HAVE BEEN TO INCREASE POPS FOR THE EXTREME              
SE CORNER OF THE CWA FOR EARLY FRIDAY NIGHT...AND TO SLOW DOWN POPS             
AGAIN FOR THE COLD FRONT SLIDING ACROSS EARLY NEXT WEEK.                        
OVERALL...THE SLOWDOWN WAS BETWEEN 6 TO 12 HOURS FROM OUR PREVIOUS              
FORECAST ISSUANCE.                                                              
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT HAS BEEN SITUATED OVER THE NORTHEASTERN             
UNITED STATES FOR QUITE A WHILE...WILL BE TEMPORARILY TAKING A                  
VACATION...ALLOWING FOR THE RIDGE TO SLIDE OVER THE CENTRAL                     
APPALACHIANS AND                                                                
MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY...REALLY STARTING ON SATURDAY.  IN FACT...THE                
RIDGE SHOULD BE OVERHEAD 12Z MONDAY.  THIS WILL BE SHORT LIVED                  
THOUGH...WITH THE TROUGH SLIDING IN AGAIN WITH OUR COLD FRONT ON                
TUESDAY.                                                                        
THE NAM AND GFS BUTTING HEADS AGAIN TODAY...WITH THE NAM KEEPING                
ABUNDANT PRECIP IN THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND...AND THE              
GFS SWEEPING IN THE COOLER SFC HIGH FROM THE NORTH.  AS A RESULT OF             
THESE DISCREPANCIES...HAVE TAILORED THE FORECAST WITH A LEAN TOWARDS            
THE SLIGHTLY COOLER AND DRIER GFS.  FOR DAYS 4 THROUGH 7...MONDAY               
THROUGH THURSDAY...A GFS/ECMWF MIX WAS GENERALLY AGAIN PREFERRED.               
&&                                                                              
.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
WV...NONE.                                                                      
OH...NONE.                                                                      
KY...NONE.                                                                      
VA...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHORT TERM...JSH                                                                
LONG TERM...JMV                                                                 
</PRE></TT></td>   wv                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN                              
955 AM CDT FRI AUG 11 2006                                                      
.UPDATE...                                                                      
MORNING SOUNDING AT KMPX SHOWING A FAIR AMOUNT OF MOISTURE. 09Z/12Z             
RUC SUGGESTS SOME DRYING BUT STILL ENOUGH TO GET CU/TCU. BEST AREA              
FOR A FEW SHOWERS WOULD BE IN EAST CENTRAL/SOUTH CENTRAL MN IN                  
CURRENT CLOUD FREE AREA. MORE STABLE AIR INTO WI. WILL KEEP DRY                 
FOR NOW...WITH VERY LITTLE OTHER FORCING. TEMPS SEEM OK.                        
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 330 AM CDT FRI AUG 11 2006/                         
DISCUSSION...                                                                   
FORECAST CONCERN NEAR TERM CONSISTS OF ANY RESIDUAL CONVECTION OVER             
FAR SOUTH CENTRAL CWA EARLY.  LAST VESTIGES OF IOWA/SODAK MCS MOVING            
ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN MN EARLY AM.  SURFACE THETA-E RIDGE ALONG WITH              
LEFTOVER BACK DOOR COLD FRONT REMAINS OVER THIS REGION EARLY                    
AM...AND MAY YET YIELD A TSRA OR TWO. DO BELIEVE THIS SHOULD BE OUT             
OF THE AREA AROUND 12Z HOWEVER.  DRIER/MORE STABLE EASTERLY FLOW                
SHOULD THEN TAKE OVER CWA TODAY.  SHOULD SEE SOME SUNSHINE AND WITH             
H85 TEMPERATURES STILL IN THE LOWER TEENS...LOWER 80S SHOULD BE THE             
RULE.                                                                           
LIKE THE 00Z GFS OVERALL WITH TIMING OF SUN/SUN NIGHT FRONT ACROSS              
REGION.  FORECAST MCS'S IN THE MEANTIME IS THE CHALLENGE IN                     
BETWEEN.  APPEARS DEVELOPMENT SHOULD OCCUR OVER SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH             
DAKOTA DURING THE EVENING...AND THICKNESS INDICATES MCS MOVING INTO             
FAR NORTHWEST CWA LATE TONIGHT.  HAVE ADDED MENTION IN THE NORTHWEST            
CWA AFTER 08Z.  SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE OUT            
WEST. PWATS INCREASE IN THIS REGION AS WELL.  ANY REMNANTS OF MCS               
SHOULD TRAVEL ACROSS AT LEAST NORTHERN/INTO CENTRAL CWA SATURDAY                
MORNING SO HAVE INCLUDED SOME POPS FOR THIS.  BOUNDARY                          
CONSIDERATIONS ARE AN ADDED PROBLEM FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON...SO HAVE            
KEPT SOME POPS GOING IN THE SAME GENERAL AREA.  SOME INDICATION THAT            
MID LEVEL CAP DEVELOPING INTO THE FAR SOUTHWEST DURING THE DAY                  
SATURDAY...WHICH MAY STALL DEVELOPMENT AT LEAST INITIALLY.  ANOTHER             
MCS POSSIBLE SATURDAY NIGHT OVER EASTERN DAKOTAS OR WESTERN MN.                 
CONTINUED MODERATE POPS ACROSS THE WEST INTO SUNDAY.  THEN FRONT                
FORECAST  TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT.  WILL MENTION                  
LIKELY POPS OVER MUCH OF CENTRAL/EASTERN CWA. CLOUD COVER MAY                   
INHIBIT SIGNIFICANT DESTABILIZATION SATURDAY AFTERNOON...BUT SHOULD             
STILL SEE ENOUGH INSTABILITY/FORCING FOR SOME SEVERE WEATHER WITH               
THE FRONT.  LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STORMS            
WITH HIGH PWAT AVAILABLE.                                                       
LONGER TERM...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY                                           
MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT...AS UPPER TROUGH AXIS             
MOVES THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. FRONT WELL AHEAD OF TROUGH...SO                   
MOISTURE SHOULD BE SCOURED OUT OF THE LOWER LEVELS AS SFC HI BRINGS             
IN DRY W TO NW FLOW. UPPER RIDGE WILL KEEP LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE               
OVER MN/WI THROUGH WEDNESDAY. GFS...GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN... UKMET...               
CANADIAN AND ECMWF ALL DEPICT RIDGE AXIS MOVING ACROSS WED AFTERNOON            
OR NIGHT...HERALDING A RETURN TO UPPER SW FLOW. HOWEVER... THE                  
GREATEST ENERGY SHOULD EXTEND FROM THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS INTO                
CANADA. LIFT WITH EMBEDDED NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVES MAY EXTEND               
FAR ENOUGH SOUTH INTO THE CWA. THERE IS ALSO A HINT OF SUBTROPICAL              
JET APPROACHING AND GFS BRINGS IN TWO INCHES OF PRECIPITABLE WATER              
FOR THURSDAY. THUS WILL MAINTAIN POPS FOR THURSDAY. WARMING TEMPS               
AND DEW POINTS OF COURSE WITH APPROACH OF WRN TROUGH.                           
&&                                                                              
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
MN...NONE.                                                                      
WI...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
DWE/TDK/JPR                                                                     
</PRE></TT></td>   mn                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO                                         
1015 AM CDT FRI AUG 11 2006                                                     
.UPDATE...                                                                      
NEXT APPROACHING SHORTWAVE SHOWS UP NICELY IN MORNING WATER VAPOR               
IMAGERY..JUST BEHIND DRY SLOT BEGINNING TO ROTATE INTO THE CWA. HAVE            
SENT UPDATE TO ADJUST SKY/TEMP/DEWPOINT GRIDS. ALSO MADE SOME                   
ADJUSTMENTS TO LATE MORNING POPS/WEATHER/QPF. IN THE VERY SHORT                 
TERM...LOOKS LIKE PRECIP WILL CONTINUE ACROSS FAR SOUTHWEST                     
MISSOURI...AS WELL AS JUST EAST AND SOUTH OF LAKE OF THE OZARKS                 
REGION.                                                                         
RUC IS DEPICTING A RATHER UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT THIS AFTERNOON...WITH            
HIGH CAPES AND LITTLE CAP. HOWEVER...INSTABILITY PARAMETERS ARE                 
LIKELY OVERDONE. KTOP 12Z SOUNDING SHOWED QUITE A BIT OF DRY AIR IN             
THE MID/UPPER LEVELS ASSOCIATED WITH THE DRY PUNCH ON WATER VAPOR.              
THIS DRYING IS EXPECTED TO PLAY A ROLE IN HINDERING STORM                       
DEVELOPMENT GENERALLY WEST OF HIGHWAY 65. APPROACHING SHORTWAVE IS              
CUTTING OFF THE DRY SLOT FARTHER EAST...AND LATEST WRF IS PAINTING              
SOME POPCORN CONVECTION OVER OUR NORTHEASTERN/EASTERN ZONES THIS                
AFTERNOON. HAVE UPDATED WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR AREAS ROUGHLY               
EAST OF HIGHWAY 65.                                                             
UPDATED PRODUCTS ARE OUT.                                                       
SCHULTZ                                                                         
&&                                                                              
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS WILL BE PRECIPITATION CHANCES TODAY THEN                 
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEKEND.                                               
EARLY THIS MORNING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WERE ONGOING ACROSS                
MUCH OF SOUTHERN MISSOURI.  THESE STORMS LOOKED TO BE FIRING IN AN              
AREA OF CONFLUENCE/CONVERGENCE AROUND 850MB AS DEPICTED BY THE WIND             
PROFILER NETWORK.  ANOTHER FEATURE AIDING THE LIFT ACROSS THE AREA              
IS A DECENT SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY TRACKING THROUGH THE REGION. ALSO               
NOTED WAS A 80 TO 100 KT JET STREAK MOVING EAST ACROSS THE GREAT                
LAKES REGION.  THE CONFIGURATION OF THIS JET STREAK PUT THE FORECAST            
AREA IN THE FAVORABLE ENTRANCE REGION FOR SOME GOOD UPPER LEVEL                 
DIVERGENCE.                                                                     
ITS LOOKING MORE LIKE THE BULK OF THE RAIN WILL END ACROSS THE AREA             
THIS MORNING.  THE JET STREAK WILL CONTINUE TRACKING                            
EASTWARD...TAKING THE UPPER DIVERGENCE WITH IT.  IN ADDITION...THE              
LOW LEVEL JET WILL CONTINUE TO VEER...WHICH WILL PUT THE BEST                   
MOISTURE FLUX SOUTH AND EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA BY MIDDAY.  WITH              
THE PASSAGE OF THE UPPER WAVE THIS MORNING...BOTH THE NAM AND GFS               
INDICATE ISENTROPIC DOWNGLIDE AS WELL.  WILL TAKE A LOOK AT RADAR               
TRENDS BEFORE MAKING THE FINAL DECISION ON POPS...BUT THE FIRST                 
GUESS WILL BE HIGH END CHANCE POPS ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL                         
MISSOURI...DWINDLING DOWN TO ONLY SLIGHT CHANCES NORTHWEST OF THE               
INTERSTATE 44 CORRIDOR.  LOOKING AT ALL OF THE FORCING                          
PARAMETERS...THE ETA LOOKED TO HAVE TOO HIGH OF POPS FOR TODAY.                 
FORECAST WILL FOLLOW THE DRIER MAV.  THE SREF HAD A GOOD HANDLE ON              
THE OVERNIGHT PRECIPITATION...AND IT'S SOLUTION IS CLOSE TO MY                  
THINKING WITH THE BULK OF RAINFALL ENDING ACROSS SOUTHERN MISSOURI              
BY MIDDAY/EARLY AFTERNOON.                                                      
ONE ITEM THAT WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED IS A WEAKENING MCS ACROSS THE             
NORTHERN PLAINS.  THE REMNANTS OF THIS FEATURE MAY REACH CENTRAL                
MISSOURI TOWARD MIDDAY.  WITH A DECENT AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER ACROSS             
THAT AREA THIS MORNING...AND SINKING MOTION ACROSS THE OZARKS                   
REGION...I'M NOT EXPECTING ADDITIONAL CONVECTION TO FIRE WITH ANY               
POSSIBLE MCV LEFT OVER.                                                         
A BACKDOOR FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE AREA TODAY...WHICH WILL ACT TO              
FORCE THE VERY HOT AIRMASS WE'VE HAD THE PAST FEW DAYS WESTWARD.                
THERE SHOULD BE A DECENT TEMPERATURE GRADIENT TODAY.  AREAS OUT WEST            
WILL LIKELY STILL REACH THE MIDDLE 90S WITH CLEARING LIKELY BY                  
MIDDAY...WHILE COLD COVER AND COOLER AIR FILTERING IN THE FROM THE              
EAST WILL KEEP HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S OVER SOUTH CENTRAL MISSOURI.              
LOOKS LIKE A MOSTLY DRY WEEKEND AS THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS BACK OVER             
THE REGION...EASTERLY FLOW WILL USHER IN A MUCH DRIER AIRMASS WITH              
BOTH THE NAM AND GFS SHOWING PW VALUES DROPPING TO NEAR 1 INCH ON               
SATURDAY. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW ANOTHER FRONT BY THE FIRST PART OF            
THE WORK WEEK.  HOWEVER...THERE ARE SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES.  GOING             
THE THE SLOWER SOLUTIONS OF THE UKMET AND GFS.  I'VE GOT LOW POPS IN            
THE GRIDS FOR FAR NORTHWEST AREAS SUNDAY NIGHT...BUT THE BEST                   
CHANCES OF RAIN WILL LIKELY HOLD OFF UNTIL MONDAY.                              
AS FOR TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND...TEMPERATURES WILL BE A FEW DEGREE            
WARMER THAN TODAY ON SATURDAY AREAWIDE. WITH THE SLOWER FRONTAL                 
PROGRESSION...SUNDAY WILL LIKELY BE PRETTY WARM.  UPPER 90S ARE                 
LIKELY ONCE AGAIN WEST/NORTHWEST OF THE PLATEAU WITH LOWER 90S                  
EXPECTED ACROSS THE GREENER AREAS OF SOUTHCENTRAL MISSOURI.                     
SAW                                                                             
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
SCATTERED STRATUS AROUND 5 KFT AND A BROKEN MID LEVEL DECK NEAR 9               
KFT WILL GRADUALLY GIVE WAY TO CLEARING SKIES THIS MORNING. SHOWERS             
AND THE ACCOMPANYING MVFR CEILINGS/VISIBILITIES WILL BE CONCENTRATED            
TO THE SOUTH OF THE JOPLIN AND SPRINGFIELD TERMINALS BEFORE ENDING              
BY MID MORNING. SURFACE WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHEAST AS A FRONT            
MOVES ACROSS THE REGION.                                                        
FOSTER                                                                          
&&                                                                              
.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
MO...NONE.                                                                      
KS...NONE.                                                                      
$$                                                                              
WFO SGF                                                                         
</PRE></TT></td>   mo                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OHIO                                         
1000 AM EDT FRI AUG 11 2006                                                     
.SHORT TERM (THIS AFTERNOON)...                                                 
UPDATED TO REMOVE MORNING PORTION. ALSO WENT MOSTLY SUNNY IN NE.                
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION(12Z-12Z)...                                                           
DRIER AIR WILL BEGIN TO PUSH INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH AND SHOULD            
KEEP MOST OF THE EASTERN AREAS DRY THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH CLEARING             
OVERNIGHT.  SOME LINGERING VFR AND MVFR CLOUDS WILL PERSIST IN THE              
WESTERN HALF THROUGH THE DAY WITH GRADUAL CLEARING OVERNIGHT.  WINDS            
WILL BE FROM THE NORTHEAST AT 10 TO 20 KNOTS ACROSS THE AREA AS                 
GRADIENT TIGHTENS AHEAD OF THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM BUILDING SOUTH              
INTO THE AREA.                                                                  
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM (TODAY)...                                                          
ADJUSTED WORDING FOR TODAY WITH THE SHOWERS OVER NORTHWEST OHIO AND             
THE SHOWERS THAT MAY BRUSH THE SW PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS             
AM. ALSO ADJUSTED THE WORDING OF THE CLOUDS IN THE NORTHEAST AREA.              
NORTHEAST FLOWS CAN BE TOUGH IN CAUSING CLOUDS IN INLAND NORTHEAST              
OHIO...WILL MENTION BECOMING PARTLY CLOUDY. THE CLOUDS OVER THE LAKE            
ARE NOT TOO BUBBLEY...THUS THREAT OF WATERSPOUTS SEEM VERY LOW. ALSO            
LOCAL WATERSPOUT SCHEME SAYS NORTHEAST FLOW IS TOUGH FOR THEM TO                
DEVELOP.                                                                        
SHORT TERM(TODAY-SUN)...                                                        
COLD FRONT SOUTH OF THE AREA WITH A NORTHEAST FLOW AND DRIER AIR                
MOVING IN. THE LAKE AND 850 MB TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCE AT 12Z WILL BE            
NEAR 13C AND REMAIN THAT WAY FOR THE DAY. WILL FORECAST PARTLY                  
CLOUDY THE ENTIRE CWA AS SOME CLOUDS BRUSHING THE SOUTHERN CWA FROM             
A VORT MAX THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA AND IN THE NORTH SOME                
LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS EVEN OVER NW OHIO BECAUSE THE FLOW IS NORTHEAST.             
ALL THE MODELS (NGM, WRF, GFS, RUC) INDICATING A THREAT OF SHOWERS              
NEAR THE LAKESHORE THROUGH 14Z BECAUSE OF CONVERGENCE...WILL GO WITH            
A 20 POP FOR THE LAKESHORE THIS MORNING. THE CANADIAN AND LOCAL                 
SCHEME INDICATE A WATERSPOUT THREAT BECAUSE OF COLD AIR OVER THE                
WARM LAKE AND SOME CONVERGENCE AS INDICATED BY RADAR AND SATELLITE.             
THE CONVERGENCE SEEMS TO BE DECREASING. THE THREAT SHOULD END BY                
NOON AS THE HIGH BUILDS IN. MAY MENTION A WATERSPOUT THREAT IN HWO.             
CLEARING TONIGHT AS THE 850 MB TEMPERATURE WARMS SOME AND DECREASES             
THE LAKE AND 850 MB TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCE TO ABOUT 10C DURING THE              
NIGHT. WITH THE LOCATION OF THE HIGH AND THE AIRMASS DRYING OUT SOME            
IT WILL BE OR BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR TONIGHT. PLENTY OF SUN SATURDAY               
AND SUNDAY.                                                                     
MAV GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES GENERALLY OK...MADE SOME MINOR                        
ADJUSTMENTS...A LITTLE WARMER SATURDAY AS THE HIGH BEGINS TO MOVE               
EAST AND SOUTHEAST FLOW RETURNS. THE MINIMUM TEMPERATURE FOR                    
SATURDAY NIGHT FROM THE MAV MAY BE A LITTLE TOO WARM IN THE EAST AND            
TOO COOL AT TOL.                                                                
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM (MON-THU)...                                                         
THE ECMWF IS A LITTLE FASTER WITH THE FRONT FOR MONDAY THAN THE GFS.            
NONE THE LESS THE THREAT FOR THE AFTERNOON AND NIGHT SHOULD BE OK.              
ACCORDING TO THE GFS THE CAPE AND LIS NOT THAT BAD. WILL MONITOR SPC            
DAY4-8 SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK. OTHERWISE DRY WEATHER.                           
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...                                                          
RELATIVELY QUIET PATTERN FOR THE EXTD WITH ONLY ONE COLD FRONT TO               
DEAL WITH MON AFTN/EVE.  OTHERWISE RIDGE SLOWLY BUILDING INTO THE               
REGION AND HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTRED OVER THE GREAT LAKES                   
TUE-THU.  NEAR NORMAL TEMPS.                                                    
&&                                                                              
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
.OH...NONE.                                                                     
.PA...NONE.                                                                     
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHORT TERM...KIELTYKA/LW                                                        
LONG TERM...OUDEMAN/KIELTYKA                                                    
AVIATION...LOMBARDY                                                             
</PRE></TT></td>   oh                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH                                          
912 AM EDT FRI AUG 11 2006                                                      
.SHORT TERM /REST OF TODAY/...                                                  
AREA OF SHOWERS ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA ARE SLOWLY DROPPING SSE.                 
INCREASED POPS ESPECIALLY IN THE INDIANA COUNTIES...AS THIS AREA                
WILL SCRAPE THROUGH THEM. NOT CONFIDENT ON HOW FAR EAST THESE                   
SHOWERS WILL WORK...AS THE EASTERN EDGE HAS BEEN WEAKENING AND                  
ERODING OVER THE LAST HOUR. DIDNT BRING THE INCREASED POPS EAST OF              
I-75. DROPPED MENTION OF THUNDER IN THE EAST AND LOWERED POPS.                  
TEMPS AND CLOUD COVER LOOK OKAY FOR NOW.                                        
SITES                                                                           
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION...                                                             
 /ISSUED 627 AM EDT FRI AUG 11 2006/                                            
AVIATION /12Z-12Z/...                                                           
CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS DEPICTS WEAK FRONT ACROSS NORTHERN                     
CENTRAL KENTUCKY THIS MORNING. RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS PRECIPITATION                
TRYING TO FILL IN. HAVE A VCSH IN KDAY AND TEMPO GROUPS AT KCVG                 
AND KLUK FOR MVFR CONDITIONS. KCMH AND KLCK SHOULD REMAIN DRY                   
WITH DRIER AIR WORKING IN ACROSS THE NORTH. SKIES WILL GRADUALLY                
CLEAR THIS EVENING INTO SATURDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL STAY UP A                  
BIT OVERNIGHT...SO FG/BR SHOULD NOT BE MUCH OF A PROBLEM                        
OVERNIGHT. JUST HAVE ADDED MVFR BR AT KCVG AND KLUK WITH THOSE                  
LOCATIONS DUE TO MORE RAINFALL. RLG                                             
PREV DISCUSSION...                                                              
 /ISSUED 225 AM EDT FRI AUG 11 2006/                                            
SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...                                            
PCPN TRYING TO FILL IN SOME ACROSS NORTHERN INDIANA THIS MORNING.               
THIS IS IN RESPONSE TO MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE DROPPING DOWN ACROSS THE            
AREA. SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES EXIST THOUGH WITH THE HANDLING OF THIS             
FEATURE AND ITS ASSOCIATED SURFACE WAVE. THE GFS APPEARS TOO                    
OVERDONE WITH ITS SURFACE AND 850 LOW/LOW LEVEL JET AT 06Z BASED ON             
CURRENT READINGS. HOWEVER ON THE OTHER HAND...NAM-WRF APPEARS TOO               
UNDERDONE BASED ON WHAT IS CURRENTLY GOING ON. AS A RESULT WILL TAKE            
A BIT OF A BLEND OF THE TWO...BUT LEAN CLOSER TO DRIER NAM-WRF AS               
THE GFS APPEARS TO BE CRANKING OUT WAY TOO MUCH PCPN THROUGH THE DAY            
TODAY. AT ANY RATE...AS WAVE PUSHES EAST SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE                  
DAY...WILL KEEP POPS IN CHANCE CATEGORY WITH HIGHEST POPS ACROSS THE            
SOUTH/WEST.                                                                     
COULD SEE A FEW SHOWERS LINGER INTO THIS EVENING ACROSS THE                     
SOUTHEAST BUT OVERALL...EXPECT A MAINLY DRY NIGHT WITH A GRADUAL                
CLEARING TREND. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD INTO THE AREA             
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM FOR MAINLY CLEAR SKIES.                 
CLOUDS SHOULD HELP KEEP TEMPS DOWN SOME TODAY...PARTICULARLY THROUGH            
EARLY AFTERNOON. WILL THEREFORE GO CLOSER TO COOLER MAV GUIDANCE FOR            
HIGHS TODAY...ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTH WHERE THE CLOUDS SHOULD BE THE            
MOST PREVALENT. THEN EXPECT TO SEE A SLOW WARM UP IN AFTERNOON HIGHS            
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS LOW LEVEL FLOW BECOMES MORE SOUTHERLY.                   
PREV DISCUSSIONS...                                                             
THE FOLLOWING WAS ISSUED AT 144 AM EDT FRI AUG 11 2006                          
AVIATION /06Z-06Z/...                                                           
CURRENT SURFACE MAP DEPICTS NEARLY STATIONARY BOUNDARY NEAR THE                 
OHIO RIVER. RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS LIGHT SHOWERS IN THE VICINITY OF                
THE FRONT. AN AREA OF HEAVIER SHOWERS WAS NOTED ACROSS NORTHERN                 
INDIANA. MODELS ARE NOT IN GOOD AGREEMENT THIS MORNING. THE GFS                 
IS QUITE A BIT WETTER THAN THE NAM/WRF. HAVE GONE WITH A                        
COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE TWO AND INCORPORATED LATEST RUC ANALYSIS.                
MODELS PRETTY CONSISTENT WITH PRECIPITATION OVER NORTHERN INDIANA               
DISSIPATING OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. NORTHERN TERMINALS SHOULD                  
REMAIN RELATIVELY DRY THROUGH THE PERIOD. A STRAY SHOWER IS                     
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE WEST...SO HAVE KEPT A VCSH AT KDAY AND KILN.                
SOME SUNRISE MVFR BR IS POSSIBLE AT THESE SITES...WITH KILN                     
DROPPING TO IFR THIS MORNING. KCVG AND KLUK WILL EXPERIENCE MVFR                
SHOWERS AND BR FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS. HAVE KEPT TEMPO GROUP FOR                
THIS BUT REMOVED VCTS AND CB MENTION THROUGH 10Z. KEPT CB MENTION               
AFTER SUNRISE WITH BOUNDARY LINGERING ACROSS THE AREA. THE                      
BOUNDARY WILL SLOWLY SAG SOUTH ALLOWING FOR DRIER TO WORK INTO                  
THE REGION TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD. HAVE GRADUALLY BEGAN TO                
SCATTER OUT LOW CLOUDS TOWARD THE END OF THE FORECAST. RLG                      
ISSUED 430 PM EDT THU AUG 10 2006                                               
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/                                           
SFC HI PRES WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH AND PROVIDE FOR A PLEASANT             
WEEKEND WITH SEASONABLE TEMPS.  POLAR VORTEX WILL HOLD OVER CANADIAN            
MARITIMES OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO ERLY NEXT WEEK...TRAPPED BTWN               
BROAD MID LVL RIDGE OVER CNTRL PLAINS AND RIDGE OVER NRN ATLC                   
OCEAN.  AS UPR LO BEGINS TO PULL NE AWAY FROM NRN NEW                           
ENGLAND...ANOTHER FAIRLY POTENT MID LVL S/WV WILL MOVE ALONG                    
US/CANADIAN BORDER MON AND TUES DRAGGING AN ATTENDANT COLD FRONT                
THRU REGION.  SUBTLE TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH FROPA BTWN EXTENDED                
MODELS...SO BROUGHT CHANCE POPS INTO NRN FCST AREA MON AFTN AND ACRS            
ENTIRE FCST AREA MON NIGHT.  FRNTL BNDRY WILL PUSH SE OF FCST AREA              
TUES AS ANOTHER PLEASANT CANADIAN HI PRES BUILDS INTO REGION.  HI               
PRES WILL THEN REMAIN ACRS REGION THRU END OF FCST PERIOD...WITH DRY            
WEATHER AND NEAR NORMAL TEMPS.                                                  
&&                                                                              
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
OH...NONE.                                                                      
KY...NONE.                                                                      
IN...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHORT TERM...                                                                   
</PRE></TT></td>   oh                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OHIO                                         
721 AM EDT FRI AUG 11 2006                                                      
.AVIATION(12Z-12Z)...                                                           
DRIER AIR WILL BEGIN TO PUSH INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH AND SHOULD            
KEEP MOST OF THE EASTERN AREAS DRY THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH CLEARING             
OVERNIGHT.  SOME LINGERING VFR AND MVFR CLOUDS WILL PERSIST IN THE              
WESTERN HALF THROUGH THE DAY WITH GRADUAL CLEARING OVERNIGHT.  WINDS            
WILL BE FROM THE NORTHEAST AT 10 TO 20 KNOTS ACROSS THE AREA AS                 
GRADIENT TIGHTENS AHEAD OF THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM BUILDING SOUTH              
INTO THE AREA.                                                                  
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM (TODAY)...                                                          
ADJUSTED WORDING FOR TODAY WITH THE SHOWERS OVER NORTHWEST OHIO AND             
THE SHOWERS THAT MAY BRUSH THE SW PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS             
AM. ALSO ADJUSTED THE WORDING OF THE CLOUDS IN THE NORTHEAST AREA.              
NORTHEAST FLOWS CAN BE TOUGH IN CAUSING CLOUDS IN INLAND NORTHEAST              
OHIO...WILL MENTION BECOMING PARTLY CLOUDY. THE CLOUDS OVER THE LAKE            
ARE NOT TOO BUBBLEY...THUS THREAT OF WATERSPOUTS SEEM VERY LOW. ALSO            
LOCAL WATERSPOUT SCHEME SAYS NORTHEAST FLOW IS TOUGH FOR THEM TO                
DEVELOP.                                                                        
SHORT TERM(TODAY-SUN)...                                                        
COLD FRONT SOUTH OF THE AREA WITH A NORTHEAST FLOW AND DRIER AIR                
MOVING IN. THE LAKE AND 850 MB TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCE AT 12Z WILL BE            
NEAR 13C AND REMAIN THAT WAY FOR THE DAY. WILL FORECAST PARTLY                  
CLOUDY THE ENTIRE CWA AS SOME CLOUDS BRUSHING THE SOUTHERN CWA FROM             
A VORT MAX THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA AND IN THE NORTH SOME                
LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS EVEN OVER NW OHIO BECAUSE THE FLOW IS NORTHEAST.             
ALL THE MODELS (NGM, WRF, GFS, RUC) INDICATING A THREAT OF SHOWERS              
NEAR THE LAKESHORE THROUGH 14Z BECAUSE OF CONVERGENCE...WILL GO WITH            
A 20 POP FOR THE LAKESHORE THIS MORNING. THE CANADIAN AND LOCAL                 
SCHEME INDICATE A WATERSPOUT THREAT BECAUSE OF COLD AIR OVER THE                
WARM LAKE AND SOME CONVERGENCE AS INDICATED BY RADAR AND SATELLITE.             
THE CONVERGENCE SEEMS TO BE DECREASING. THE THREAT SHOULD END BY                
NOON AS THE HIGH BUILDS IN. MAY MENTION A WATERSPOUT THREAT IN HWO.             
CLEARING TONIGHT AS THE 850 MB TEMPERATURE WARMS SOME AND DECREASES             
THE LAKE AND 850 MB TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCE TO ABOUT 10C DURING THE              
NIGHT. WITH THE LOCATION OF THE HIGH AND THE AIRMASS DRYING OUT SOME            
IT WILL BE OR BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR TONIGHT. PLENTY OF SUN SATURDAY               
AND SUNDAY.                                                                     
MAV GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES GENERALLY OK...MADE SOME MINOR                        
ADJUSTMENTS...A LITTLE WARMER SATURDAY AS THE HIGH BEGINS TO MOVE               
EAST AND SOUTHEAST FLOW RETURNS. THE MINIMUM TEMPERATURE FOR                    
SATURDAY NIGHT FROM THE MAV MAY BE A LITTLE TOO WARM IN THE EAST AND            
TOO COOL AT TOL.                                                                
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM (MON-THU)...                                                         
THE ECMWF IS A LITTLE FASTER WITH THE FRONT FOR MONDAY THAN THE GFS.            
NONE THE LESS THE THREAT FOR THE AFTERNOON AND NIGHT SHOULD BE OK.              
ACCORDING TO THE GFS THE CAPE AND LIS NOT THAT BAD. WILL MONITOR SPC            
DAY4-8 SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK. OTHERWISE DRY WEATHER.                           
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...                                                          
RELATIVELY QUIET PATTERN FOR THE EXTD WITH ONLY ONE COLD FRONT TO               
DEAL WITH MON AFTN/EVE.  OTHERWISE RIDGE SLOWLY BUILDING INTO THE               
REGION AND HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTRED OVER THE GREAT LAKES                   
TUE-THU.  NEAR NORMAL TEMPS.                                                    
&&                                                                              
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
.OH...NONE.                                                                     
.PA...NONE.                                                                     
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHORT TERM...KIELTYKA                                                           
LONG TERM...OUDEMAN/KIELTYKA                                                    
AVIATION...LOMBARDY                                                             
</PRE></TT></td>   oh                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD                                            
1029 AM CDT FRI AUG 11 2006                                                     
.UPDATE...FORECAST MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE FOR TODAY ADJUSTED UPWARD                
BY 2 TO 3 DEGREES OUT ACROSS THE WESTERN-MOST TIER OF ZONES...AS                
PER THE LATEST RUC AND 12 HI-RES NAM 850HPA THERMAL PROGS. WINDS                
ALSO APPEAR TO INCREASE TO THE WINDY CATEGORY OUT ACROSS THE                    
MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY COUNTIES BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON. TWEAKED THE              
START TIME OF CONVECTION TO APPX 23Z FOR THE WESTERN-MOST TIER OF               
COUNTIES AND CONCENTRATED MOVEMENT OF POPS INTO THE NORTH CENTRAL               
COUNTIES DURING THE EVENING HOURS. RESENDING POINT FORECAST                     
MATRICES AND SUBMITTING AN AMMENED FIRE WX FORECAST BY THE TOP OF               
THE HOUR. REMAINDER OF FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK AT THE MOMENT.                   
&&                                                                              
.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
SD...NONE.                                                                      
MN...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
DORN                                                                            
</PRE></TT></td>   sd                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX                                          
1045 AM CDT FRI AUG 11 2006                                                     
.AVIATION...                                                                    
HAVE AMENDED METROPLEX TAFS TO SHOW EALIER TS TIMING. AIRMASS WILL              
BECOME UNSTABLE THIS AFTERNOON AND SHORTWAVE IN NW FLOW ALOFT WILL              
PROVIDE THE WEAK LIFT NECCESARY TO GET ISO-SCT TS GOING ALONG RED               
RIVER.  STORMS WILL MOVE SSE AS MID LEVEL FLOW STRENGTHENS WHICH                
WOULD BRING THEM INTO THE METROPLEX BETWEEN 6PM AND MIDNIGHT.  HAVE             
PUT A PROB30 CENTERED AROUND 2-3Z...BUT 18Z TAF ISSUANCE WILL                   
REQUIRE THE REMOVAL OF PROB30...AND WILL MAKE THE DECISION WHETHER              
TO GO VCTS OR TEMPO AT THAT TIME.  TR.92                                        
&&                                                                              
.UPDATE...                                                                      
CLOUDS ADVECTING INTO THE NORTHWEST ZONES ALREADY...SO I AM LOWERING            
HIGHS A BIT UP THERE. DON/T THINK 100S WILL HAPPEN WITH THE THICKER             
CLOUDS. I AM CAUTIOUSLY OPTIMISTICALLY RAISING THE POPS THIS                    
AFTERNOON/EVENING ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF. MODELS HAVE CONTINUED A             
TREND OF LOOKING WETTER AS TIME GOES ON...FRONTAL BOUNDARY CONTINUES            
TO MOVE SLOWLY SOUTH AS WELL. IF THE THICK CLOUDS MOVE SOUTH FASTER             
THAN EXPECTED CENTRAL AREAS MAY NOT REACH TRIPLE DIGITS EITHER.                 
MODELS DIVERGE ON EXACT SOLUTION OF WHERE POPS WILL BE...BUT RUC HAS            
SHOWN NO RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY AND AM LEANING MORE TOWARDS NAM/ETA.            
VERY LITTLE 12Z GFS IN YET TO COMPARE. UPDATE SHOULD BE OUT WITHIN              
NEXT 15 MINUTES. 84                                                             
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 354 AM CDT FRI AUG 11 2006/                         
DISCUSSION...                                                                   
THE RED FLAG WARNING AND HEAT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT TODAY.                 
CURRENT THINKING IS THAT THEY WILL NOT BE CONTINUED INTO SATURDAY.              
A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM SOUTH OF CHILDRESS TO SOUTH OF               
FORT SMITH AT 08Z. 88D REGIONAL LOOP SHOWS THE TROUGH MOVING SOUTH              
DUE TO LAST EVENINGS OUTFLOW AND PRESSURE RISES. EXPECT THE TROUGH              
TO MOVE SOUTH OF THE RED RIVER THIS AFTERNOON AND THEN PUSH DOWN TO             
A JACKSBORO TO SULPHUR SPRINGS LINE THIS EVENING.THE FRONT WILL MOVE            
BACK NORTH SATURDAY NIGHT WITH A DRY FORECAST SUNDAY THROUGH                    
THURSDAY.                                                                       
THE ARRIVAL OF THE SURFACE TROUGH WILL ENHANCE PRECIPITATION CHANCES            
ACROSS NORTH TEXAS...MAINLY NORTH OF I-20 AND EAST OF I-35. THE GFS             
IS THE MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH AN MCS DEVELOPING OVER THE NORTHEAST 1/4            
LATE TONIGHT AND SLIDING SOUTHWARD ON SATURDAY. THE NAM FAVORS THE              
SAME AREA...BUT WITH MUCH LESS QPF. BY ANY TOKEN...THIS IS A FAIRLY             
GOOD CHANCE FOR RAINFALL OVER THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN HALF OVER THE            
NEXT 48 HOURS. CAPE FORECASTS ABOVE 1000 J/KG AND LI/S DOWN TO -4               
INDICATED SOME STORMS WILL BE STRONG AND A FEW MAY BECOME MARGINALLY            
SEVERE ON SATURDAY. PWAT ARE RUNNING NEAR 1.50" EAST OF I-35 AND ARE            
EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO AROUND 2" ALONG THE SURFACE TROUGH                      
OVERNIGHT....THUS SLOWING MOVING STORMS WILL DUMP OUT A CONSIDERABLE            
AMOUNT OF RAINFALL ALONG THEIR PATHS.                                           
THE TUTT UPPER LOW MOVING INTO NORTHERN MEXICO WILL WEAKEN AND                  
EVENTUALLY MOVE NORTHWARD THROUGH WEST TEXAS. DOUBT IF THIS SYSTEM              
WILL PROVIDE ANY RAINFALL FOR THE WESTERN CWA. THE MASSIVE TROPICAL             
HIGH OVER THE REGION WILL WEAKEN SLIGHTLY TO ALLOW THE UPPER LOW TO             
MOVE NORTH...THEN SETTLES OVER THE ARKLATEX REGION AND STRENGTHENS A            
LITTLE FOR NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL BE QUITE HOT AGAIN                      
TODAY...THEN SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER OVER THE WEEKEND. STORM OUTFLOW             
WILL PROVIDE ADDITIONAL COOLING OVER THE NORTHEAST 1/4 SATURDAY.                
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS ARE EXPECTED NEXT WEEK WITH THE RIDGE BACK IN                
CONTROL.                                                                        
&&                                                                              
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 6 PM FRIDAY FOR TXZ091-TXZ092-TXZ100-                    
TXZ101-TXZ102-TXZ115-TXZ116-TXZ117-TXZ129-TXZ130-TXZ131-TXZ132-                 
TXZ141-TXZ142-TXZ143.                                                           
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM FRIDAY FOR TXZ092-TXZ093-TXZ102-TXZ103-                
TXZ104-TXZ117-TXZ118-TXZ119-TXZ120-TXZ133-TXZ134.                               
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
/75/05                                                                          
</PRE></TT></td>   tx                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX                                          
1024 AM CDT FRI AUG 11 2006                                                     
.UPDATE...                                                                      
CLOUDS ADVECTING INTO THE NORTHWEST ZONES ALREADY...SO I AM LOWERING            
HIGHS A BIT UP THERE. DON/T THINK 100S WILL HAPPEN WITH THE THICKER             
CLOUDS. I AM CAUTIOUSLY OPTIMISTICALLY RAISING THE POPS THIS                    
AFTERNOON/EVENING ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF. MODELS HAVE CONTINUED A             
TREND OF LOOKING WETTER AS TIME GOES ON...FRONTAL BOUNDARY CONTINUES            
TO MOVE SLOWLY SOUTH AS WELL. IF THE THICK CLOUDS MOVE SOUTH FASTER             
THAN EXPECTED CENTRAL AREAS MAY NOT REACH TRIPLE DIGITS EITHER.                 
MODELS DIVERGE ON EXACT SOLUTION OF WHERE POPS WILL BE...BUT RUC HAS            
SHOWN NO RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY AND AM LEANING MORE TOWARDS NAM/ETA.            
VERY LITTLE 12Z GFS IN YET TO COMPARE. UPDATE SHOULD BE OUT WITHIN              
NEXT 15 MINUTES. 84                                                             
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
628 AM                                                                          
VFR THROUGH THE FCST. WE ARE WATCHING WEAK...SLOW MOVING                        
FRONT/BOUNDARY ACROSS CENTRAL OK ATTM...WHICH IS PROGGED TO SINK                
SWD ACROSS THE RED RIVER AFTER 00Z SAT. FEEL ISOLD/SCT...HIGH-                  
BASED TSRA WITH GSTY WNDS PSBL AFTER 03Z FROM D/FW AREA...NWD TO                
RED RIVER NEAR THIS BOUNDARY WITH INVERTED-V TYPE ENVIRONMENT AND               
HOT TEMPS TO THE S OF THE BOUDNARY. HARD TO SAY WHAT THIS BOUDARY               
WILL DO...BUT SEE ENOUGH TO ADD PROB30 GROUP LAST 6 HRS OF 12Z TAF              
FCST AROUND D/FW. GFS TRYING TO INDICATE AN MCS CLIPPING DAL/DFW                
SITES...BUT NOT BUYING THAT FOR NOW.                                            
OTRW...SSW WNDS 8-10 KTS...TO BACK TO THE SE AT 9-12 KTS THIS                   
AFTN. VRB GSTS TO 35-40 KTS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION WITH ANY TSRA               
ACTIVITY ACROSS NRN COUNTIES THIS EVE. KACT SHD REMAIN DRY.                     
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 354 AM CDT FRI AUG 11 2006/                         
DISCUSSION...                                                                   
THE RED FLAG WARNING AND HEAT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT TODAY.                 
CURRENT THINKING IS THAT THEY WILL NOT BE CONTINUED INTO SATURDAY.              
A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM SOUTH OF CHILDRESS TO SOUTH OF               
FORT SMITH AT 08Z. 88D REGIONAL LOOP SHOWS THE TROUGH MOVING SOUTH              
DUE TO LAST EVENINGS OUTFLOW AND PRESSURE RISES. EXPECT THE TROUGH              
TO MOVE SOUTH OF THE RED RIVER THIS AFTERNOON AND THEN PUSH DOWN TO             
A JACKSBORO TO SULPHUR SPRINGS LINE THIS EVENING.THE FRONT WILL MOVE            
BACK NORTH SATURDAY NIGHT WITH A DRY FORECAST SUNDAY THROUGH                    
THURSDAY.                                                                       
THE ARRIVAL OF THE SURFACE TROUGH WILL ENHANCE PRECIPITATION CHANCES            
ACROSS NORTH TEXAS...MAINLY NORTH OF I-20 AND EAST OF I-35. THE GFS             
IS THE MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH AN MCS DEVELOPING OVER THE NORTHEAST 1/4            
LATE TONIGHT AND SLIDING SOUTHWARD ON SATURDAY. THE NAM FAVORS THE              
SAME AREA...BUT WITH MUCH LESS QPF. BY ANY TOKEN...THIS IS A FAIRLY             
GOOD CHANCE FOR RAINFALL OVER THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN HALF OVER THE            
NEXT 48 HOURS. CAPE FORECASTS ABOVE 1000 J/KG AND LI/S DOWN TO -4               
INDICATED SOME STORMS WILL BE STRONG AND A FEW MAY BECOME MARGINALLY            
SEVERE ON SATURDAY. PWAT ARE RUNNING NEAR 1.50" EAST OF I-35 AND ARE            
EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO AROUND 2" ALONG THE SURFACE TROUGH                      
OVERNIGHT....THUS SLOWING MOVING STORMS WILL DUMP OUT A CONSIDERABLE            
AMOUNT OF RAINFALL ALONG THEIR PATHS.                                           
THE TUTT UPPER LOW MOVING INTO NORTHERN MEXICO WILL WEAKEN AND                  
EVENTUALLY MOVE NORTHWARD THROUGH WEST TEXAS. DOUBT IF THIS SYSTEM              
WILL PROVIDE ANY RAINFALL FOR THE WESTERN CWA. THE MASSIVE TROPICAL             
HIGH OVER THE REGION WILL WEAKEN SLIGHTLY TO ALLOW THE UPPER LOW TO             
MOVE NORTH...THEN SETTLES OVER THE ARKLATEX REGION AND STRENGTHENS A            
LITTLE FOR NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL BE QUITE HOT AGAIN                      
TODAY...THEN SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER OVER THE WEEKEND. STORM OUTFLOW             
WILL PROVIDE ADDITIONAL COOLING OVER THE NORTHEAST 1/4 SATURDAY.                
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS ARE EXPECTED NEXT WEEK WITH THE RIDGE BACK IN                
CONTROL.                                                                        
&&                                                                              
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 6 PM FRIDAY FOR TXZ091-TXZ092-TXZ100-                    
TXZ101-TXZ102-TXZ115-TXZ116-TXZ117-TXZ129-TXZ130-TXZ131-TXZ132-                 
TXZ141-TXZ142-TXZ143.                                                           
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM FRIDAY FOR TXZ092-TXZ093-TXZ102-TXZ103-                
TXZ104-TXZ117-TXZ118-TXZ119-TXZ120-TXZ133-TXZ134.                               
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
/75/05                                                                          
</PRE></TT></td>   tx                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA                                           
1048 AM EDT FRI AUG 11 2006                                                     
FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN                  
PORTIONS OF THE CWA THIS MORNING. CURRENT RADAR SHOWING -RA                     
(REMNANTS OF PREVIOUS MCS)IN THE VCNTY OF FNT SLOWLY PUSHING TO THE             
SOUTH AND EAST. CURRENT FCST LOOKS...SO WL ONLY MAKE A FEW COSMETIC             
CHGS TO THE WORDING. SO FOR TDY... WL KEEP AN EYE ON THE TEMPS AS               
SOME CLEARING IS EXPECTED PARTICULARLY IN THE MORE NORTHERN ZONES.              
PCPN CHCS GREATEST TO THE S NEAR THE FNT.                                       
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION...                                                             
 (ISSUED 443 AM EDT FRI AUG 11 2006)                                            
SHORT TERM/TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY...CURRENTLY SFC COLD FRONT                    
LOCATED JUST TO OUR NORTH...AND WILL SLOWLY SAG SOUTHWARD TODAY.                
SHORT TERM 00Z RUN MODELS/ESPECIALLY THE NAM/WRF HAVE INITIALIZED               
POORLY ACRS THE ERN CONUS AND NEITHER THE GFS OR THE NAM/WRF                    
PICKED UP ON MCS ACTIVITY ACRS WRN NC EARLIER. A FEW STRAY                      
SHWRS/TSTMS HAVE HELD TOGETHER THRU SCNTRL VA AND LOOK TO MOVE                  
INTO PIEDMNT CNTYS OVR THE NXT FEW HRS. OVERALL...FOR TODAY HAVE                
FOLLOWED RUC DUE TO POOR INITIALIZATION OF GFS AND WRF. NNE FLOW                
IN LOW LVLS SHOULD KEEP SKIES MSTLY CLDY EXCEPT FOR N/NE ZONES                  
CLOSER TO THE DRIER AIR WHERE SKIES LOOK TO BECOME PTLY SNNY AFTER              
INITIAL LOW CLDS MIX OUT. AS FOR TEMPS WENT A BIT COOLER THAN GDNC              
DUE TO THE CLDS AND NNE FLOW...MOST AREAS LOOK TO MAX OUT CLOSE TO              
80F. SFC BASED INSTABALITY NOT REAL IMPRESSIVE TODAY BUT WITH                   
MODERATELY STEEP MID LVL LAPSE RATES ABOUT 6.5C MVG THRU LATER                  
THIS AFTN/EVENG WITH NXT SHORTWAVE WILL STILL MENTION AT LEAST ISO              
THUNDER FOR MOST ZONES. POP WISE HAVE GONE DRY IN MD TO 50% SCTD                
ACRS SW ZONES CLOSEST TO APPCHG SHTWAVE FROM TN/OH VLY.                         
TONIGHT...CONTD LKLY POPS IN FAR SRN ZONES FOR THE EVENG HRS AS                 
THIS APPEARS TO BE TIME OF BEST LOW LVL CONV AND UPR DIV FROM RRQ               
OF DEPARTING UPR JET. FARTHER NORTH POPS ARE MUCH LWR (20-30%) AS               
MORE STABLE AIR WILL LIKELY HAVE MOVED IN FROM THE NORTH (AND                   
CONTD WITH DRY FCST IN MD). GNRLY FAVORED A SOLN BETWN GFS WHICH                
LOOKS FAR TOO HIGH WITH THE QPF AND NAM WHICH IS TOO FAR SOUTH                  
WITH PRECIP DUE TO POOR INITIALIZATION OF THE SHORTWAVE ENERGY TO               
OUR WEST. SKIES BECOME MSTLY CLR N AND PCDY SOUTH TWDS DAYBRK.                  
SAT...ASIDE FROM LINGERING LOW CLDS EARLY MAINLY NEAR VA/NC                     
BORDER SAT LOOKS TO BE A NICE PTLY TO MSNNY DAY WITH TEMPS WELL                 
BELOW NRML FOR MID AUGUST...HIGHS ONLY IN UPR 70S TO LWR 80S FOR                
THE MOST PART. SAT NGT SKIES BECOME CLR ALL ZONES AS SFC HIGH                   
SETTLES OVER THE MID ATLC. TEMPS MAY CHALLENGE REC LOWS AT NORMALLY             
COOL SBY ASOS. MOST AREAS WILL DIP INTO 50S FOR 1ST TIME IN QUITE               
AWHILE...GNRLY IN MID/UPR 60S ALONG SE VA/NC COAST.                             
LONG TERM/SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH STRG          
HIGH PRESSURE CNTRD OVER REGION SUNDAY...SLIDING OFFSHORE INTO                  
ERLY NXT WEEK. TWEAKED TEMPS DOWN A FEW DGRS SUNDAY AND SUN                     
NGT...BUT OTHERWISE HAVE MADE NO CHNGES AS IT LOOKS LIKE A FAIRLY               
QUIET PERIOD UNTIL TUE/WED AS NXT FRONT APPROACHES.                             
AVIATION...                                                                     
WIDESPREAD MVFR VSBYS (3-5SM) EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH SCATTERED               
AREAS OF IFR OR 1-2SM VSBYS...WILL GRADUALLY GIVE WAY TO VFR                    
CONDITIONS FOR THE MOST PART BY 13-15Z THIS MORNING. THE EXCEPTION              
WILL BE OCCASIONAL MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN AREAS OF RAIN...PARTICULARLY              
ALONG THE LOWER CHES BAY/MID ATLC COAST WITH THE MOIST NE FLOW.                 
MARINE...                                                                       
WILL HAVE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES HOISTED IN ALL AREAS TODAY AND                 
TONIGHT. SUSPECT THERE WILL BE AN INITIAL SURGE TODAY...THEN ANOTHER            
ONE SAT MORNING AS THE LOW DEPARTS OFF THE MID ATLC COAST AND LEADS             
TO A SECONDARY EPISODE OF 900-800 MB COOLING ON THE BACKSIDE. NE                
FLOW MAY ABATE A LITTLE OVERNIGHT BEFORE THE LOW MOVES OFF THE                  
COAST...HOWEVER STRONG OVER-WATER INSTBY/VIGOROUS MIXING SHOULD KEEP            
CONDITIONS AT THE VERY LEAST NEAR THE BOTTOM END OF SCA CRITERIA.               
THEREFORE HAVE OPTED TO KEEP SCA'S GOING THROUGH SATURDAY OVER ALL              
WATERS...AND THROUGH EARLY SUN OVER THE SRN CSTL WATERS..SHORT TERM /TODAY/...  
&&                                                                              
.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
MD...NONE.                                                                      
NC...NONE.                                                                      
VA...NONE.                                                                      
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ANZ630>633 UNTIL 4 PM SATURDAY.               
  ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ANZ654 UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY.                         
  ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ANZ650-652 UNTIL MIDNIGHT SUNDAY.                 
  ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ANZ656-658 FROM 5 PM FRIDAY TO 11 AM              
     SUNDAY.                                                                    
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHORT TERM...64                                                                 
</PRE></TT></td>   va                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN                                        
130 PM EDT FRI AUG 11 2006                                                      
.FCST DISCUSSION...FCST FOCUS ON TEMPS AND FOG POTENTIAL                        
TONIGHT...THEN ON PRECIP CHCS MON-TUES.                                         
LATEST SFC MAP AND VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOW A WEAK SFC LOW                
ACROSS WESTERN KY WITH A COLD FRONT SAGGING SOUTH ACROSS CENTRAL IN.            
WATER VAPOR SHOWS AN UPPER DISTURBANCE ACROSS IA MOVING SLOWLY SE.              
IT APPEARS THAT THIS DISTURBANCE HAS SLOWED THE PROGRESSION OF THE              
850MB FRONT AND ANY STRONGER PUSH OF DRIER AIR IN THE 925-850MB                 
LAYER THIS AFTERNOON.  SFC DEWPOINTS RANGE FROM 63F ACROSS FAR NW OH            
TO 66F AT HUF. SFC DEWPOINTS HAVE ACTUALLY RISEN A FEW DEGREES                  
ACROSS NORTHERN IN AND OH WHICH SUGGESTS DEEPER MOISTURE IN THE                 
BOUNDARY LAYER.                                                                 
TONIGHT...EXPECT CLDS TO GRADUALLY DISSIPATE FROM NORTH TO SOUTH.               
850MB WINDS OUT OF THE EAST MAY PROLONG BKN SKIES ACROSS THE SOUTH              
THROUGH MIDNIGHT. CLEARING SHOULD TAKE PLACE ACROSS ALL AREAS AFTER             
MIDNIGHT. A LIGHT GRADIENT WIND OF AROUND 5KTS IS EXPECTED TO                   
PERSIST OVERNIGHT. THIS SHOULD ACT TO LIMIT ANY MORE WIDESPREAD                 
FOG...HOWEVER, WET GROUNDS WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF EVAPORATION                
TODAY SHOULD LEAD TO AT LEAST SOME PATCHY FOG LATE TONIGHT. MIN                 
TEMPS SHOULD FALL TO NEAR GOING FCST VALUES WHICH ARE RIGHT WITHIN A            
GUIDANCE BLEND. ONLY CAVEAT IS THE MIN TEMP AT IND WHICH SHOULD                 
REMAIN A FEW DEGREES WARMER DUE TO A NE WIND.                                   
SAT-SUN...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION AND PROVIDE A                
PLEASANT WEEKEND. 850MB TEMPS AND 1000-850MB THICKNESSES SUGGEST                
NEAR 80 OR LOWER 80S SAT WHICH AGREE WITH GUIDANCE AND THE GOING                
FCST. SLIGHTLY WARMER SUNDAY AS UPPER HTS BUILD WITH NEAR AVG CONDS.            
THE GFS/NAM CONTINUE TO SHOW THE NEXT WAVE AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT            
MOVING ACROSS THE REGION MON INTO MONDAY NIGHT. NO CHANGES WILL BE              
MADE TO THE FCST AS THIS SCENARIO AND TIMING IS HANDLED WELL. BEYOND            
TUES...LOOK FOR ANOTHER PERIOD OF DRY AND SEASONAL CONDS AS SFC AND             
UPPER HIGH PRESSURE BUILD INTO THE REGION.                                      
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...DISCUSSION FOR 18Z TAFS                                             
MAIN FORECAST CONCERN OVERNIGHT IS FOG/LOW STRATUS.  WITH HIGH                  
MOVING IN OVERNIGHT..RUC SOUNDINGS SHOW AN INVERSION SETTING UP                 
LATER TONIGHT.  WITH RECENT 2 DAY RAIN TOTALS OF 1-2 INCHES ON                  
AVERAGE...THE GROUND IS PLENTY WET PROVIDING AMPLE MOISTURE. IF AN              
INVERSION SETS UP AS THE RUC FORECASTS BOTH LOW VIS AND CIGS ARE                
POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT.  THERE IS SOME CONCERN THAT WIND WILL NOT BE                
LIGHT ENOUGH TO START RADIATION FOG PROCESS.  12Z MOS HAS BROUGHT               
WINDS DOWN TO 5KTS THEN CALM LATE TONIGHT SO THAT WILL NOT BE AN                
ISSUE.                                                                          
CLOUDS ARE VERY SLOWLY CLEARING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH OVER THE STATE              
THIS AFTERNOON AND EXPECT THIS TREND TO CONTINUE.  KLAF WILL CLEAR              
FIRST AND WILL BE THE MOST LIKELY CANDIDATE FOR IFR CIGS/VIS BELOW              
1SM.  WILL TRY AND TIME THE FOG WITH THE INVERSION STRENGTH.  THE               
REMAINDER OF THE TERMINALS WILL BE MORE TRICKY WITH TIMING BECAUSE              
CLOUDS WILL BE SLOWER TO CLEAR FROM THOSE SITES.                                
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE                                         
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
PUBLIC...CO                                                                     
AVIATION...SP                                                                   
</PRE></TT></td>   in                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN                                        
100 PM EDT FRI AUG 11 2006                                                      
.AVIATION...DISCUSSION FOR 18Z TAFS                                             
MAIN FORECAST CONCERN OVERNIGHT IS FOG/LOW STRATUS.  WITH HIGH                  
MOVING IN OVERNIGHT..RUC SOUNDINGS SHOW AN INVERSION SETTING UP                 
LATER TONIGHT.  WITH RECENT 2 DAY RAIN TOTALS OF 1-2 INCHES ON                  
AVERAGE...THE GROUND IS PLENTY WET PROVIDING AMPLE MOISTURE. IF AN              
INVERSION SETS UP AS THE RUC FORECASTS BOTH LOW VIS AND CIGS ARE                
POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT.  THERE IS SOME CONCERN THAT WIND WILL NOT BE                
LIGHT ENOUGH TO START RADIATION FOG PROCESS.  12Z MOS HAS BROUGHT               
WINDS DOWN TO 5KTS THEN CALM LATE TONIGHT SO THAT WILL NOT BE AN                
ISSUE.                                                                          
CLOUDS ARE VERY SLOWLY CLEARING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH OVER THE STATE              
THIS AFTERNOON AND EXPECT THIS TREND TO CONTINUE.  KLAF WILL CLEAR              
FIRST AND WILL BE THE MOST LIKELY CANDIDATE FOR IFR CIGS/VIS BELOW              
1SM.  WILL TRY AND TIME THE FOG WITH THE INVERSION STRENGTH.  THE               
REMAINDER OF THE TERMINALS WILL BE MORE TRICKY WITH TIMING BECAUSE              
CLOUDS WILL BE SLOWER TO CLEAR FROM THOSE SITES.                                
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION...                                                             
FORECAST FOCUS WL BE ON CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION TODAY AND THEN                 
AGAIN ON MONDAY.                                                                
AT 7Z A STATIONARY FRONT WAS LOCATED OVER CENTRAL INDIANA.  SHOWERS             
WERE OCCURING MAINLY NORTH OF I70 AND WERE ESPECIALLY HEAVY AROUND              
KLAF.  THE PRECIP HAS SLOWLY BEGAN TO MOVE TO THE SE...BUT MAINLY               
HAS BEEN SITTING IN THE SAME AREAS AND HAS CONTINUED TO DEVELOP.                
CLOUD COVER HAS ALSO BEEN ON THE INCREASE.                                      
THE GFS NOT INITALIZING WELL AND HAS CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK ISSUES.                
NAM LOOKING MORE LIKE THE SOLUTION FOR THIS FORECAST PACKAGE.                   
FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON...STATIONARY FRONT WL REMAIN            
IN THE VICINITY BEFORE FINALLY PUSHING OFF TO THE SOUTH.  CENTRAL               
INDIANA WL BE IN FAVORABLE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF JET.  MODELS ARE            
SHOWING LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE.  WITH                 
THESE PARAMETERS IN PLACE IN ADDITION TO FRONTOGENESIS HAVE KEPT                
PRECIP CHANCES IN FORECAST.  TEMPERATURES WL BE MAINLY IN THE UPPER             
70S WITH PRECIP AND CLOUD COVER.                                                
FRIDAY NIGHT DRIER AIR BEGINS TO WORK INTO THE AREA AND WL ACT TO               
START DECREASING CLOUD COVER.  WEAK CAA WL START TO LOWER                       
TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT INTO THE MID 50S ACROS THE NORTHERN CWA TO               
MID 60S AROUND KHUF.                                                            
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR THE WEEKEND WITH SUNDAY BEING THE WARMER            
OF THE TWO DAYS AS SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNS.  THE NAM IS SHOWING AN               
INVERTED TROUGH TRYING TO SET UP FOR SATURDAY...HOWEVER AS OF NOW               
NOT PUTTING MUCH TRUST IN THIS FEATURE EXCEPT TO HAVE A FEW EXTRA CU            
ACROS THE SOUTH.  DEWPOINTS WL BEGIN TO INCREASE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY             
TO THE EAST OF A COLD FRONT THAT WL MOVE ACROS THE STATE ON MONDAY              
AND TUESDAY MORNING.                                                            
FRONT AND CHANCES OF PRECIP MOVE OUT BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON.  AFTER               
THIS POINT TEMPERATURES WL STEADY OFF MAINLY IN THE MID 80S.                    
&&                                                                              
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE                                         
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
PUBLIC...AB                                                                     
AVIATION...SALLY                                                                
</PRE></TT></td>   in                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS                                          
220 PM CDT FRI AUG 11 2006                                                      
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
DAYS 1-2...                                                                     
THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE TONIGHT WILL BE TEMPERATURES...FOLLOWED             
BY POPS LATE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.                                               
AFTER BUSTING LAST NIGHT'S MIN TEMPS BY 3 TO 7 DEGREES...WILL TRY TO            
DO BETTER TONIGHT.  THE DEW POINTS ARE AVERAGING 2-5 DEGREES LOWER              
THAN MODEL PROGS...AND THUS HAVE UNDER CUT TEMP GUIDANCE BY 2-4                 
DEGREES TONIGHT.                                                                
THE MODELS INITIALIZED FAIRLY CLOSE AT 12Z...BUT THE GFS QUICKLY                
BECOMES MORE SATURATED THAN THE NAM OR NGM.  THE NAM IS THE CLOSED              
TO THE RUC AT 18HRS OUT...AND THUS WILL LEAN TOWARD THE DRIER...                
SLOWER NAM.  NONE OF THE MODELS...EVEN THE GFS...BRINGS IN ANY                  
CONVECTION (OR STRATIFORM) PRECIPITATION ON SATURDAY.  THEY ALL                 
DELAY MEASURABLE PRECIP UNTIL SATURDAY NIGHT AFTER MIDNIGHT.  THEN A            
COLD FRONT WILL ENTER ON SUNDAY...INCREASING THE CHANCES FOR                    
PRECIPITATION.  PLAN ON 20 POPS IN THE FAR WEST ON SATURDAY                     
AFTERNOON AFTER 21Z TO ACCOUNT FOR A LEE TROUGH MOVING EASTWARD...              
THEN BLANKET THE CWA SATURDAY NIGHT WITH 20 POPS AND INCREASE INTO              
THE 30 TO 40 PERCENT RANGE MOST LOCATIONS SUNDAY WHEN THE FRONT                 
PASSES.                                                                         
DAYS 3-7...                                                                     
THE NUMERICAL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE TIMING AND              
STRENGTH OF THE SHORTWAVE TROF THAT IS CURRENTLY IN THE PAC NW TO               
MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS LATER IN THE WEEKEND. ALL MODELS BUT            
THE 12Z GFS BRING THE COLD FRONT INTO NORTHWEST KANSAS BY 00Z MONDAY            
WITH CONVECTION BREAKING OUT ALONG THE BOUNDARY. THE BOUNDARY SHOULD            
CONTINUE SOUTH OVER WESTERN KANSAS OVERNIGHT REINFORCED BY                      
CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW. THE FRONT SHOULD RETURN NORTH ON MONDAY NIGHT               
ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS AS TROUGHINESS OUT WEST LOWERS SURFACE                    
PRESSURES OVER THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS. BY TUESDAY MODELS FORECAST             
THE UPPER LOW THAT HAS STALLED NOW OVER THE WESTERN GULF TO LIFT                
NORTH ACROSS WESTERN KS AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER               
HIGH OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH                  
FRIDAY THE MAIN FOCUS FOR PRECIP WILL BE THE LEE TROUGH OUT WEST                
WITH ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED ACTIVITY POPPING EACH DAY ALONG               
IT. OVERALL MADE ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE GOING FORECAST AS                
CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING ON THE TIMING OF THE FEATURES. ON A SIDE               
NOTE, THE 12Z GFS DIGS THE SHORTWAVE TROF MUCH DEEPER INTO THE                  
EASTERN CONUS EARLY NEXT WEEK WHICH HAS GREAT SIGNIFICANCE IN                   
REGARDS TO THE LOCATION OF THE SURFACE FEATURES. HOWEVER, WILL NOT              
CHANGE THE ENTIRE FORECAST ON ONE DETERMINISTIC SOLUTION. IN THE 8              
TO 10 DAY THE CDC REFORECAST ENSEMBLES STILL POINT TO A RIDGE OVER              
THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES WITH LOWER HEIGHTS IN THE PAC NW AND OVER THE              
NORTHEAST. THERE IS STILL INDICATIONS THAT ANOTHER WAVE WILL MOVE               
ACROSS THE MIDWEST DURING THIS PERIOD AND THIS SHOULD PUSH A COLD               
FRONT SOUTH THRU THE PLAINS. STATUS QUO IN THE 8 TO 10 DAY FORECAST             
OF ABOVE AND BELOW FOR TEMPS AND PRECIP STILL LOOKS GOOD.                       
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
DDC  66  97  68  97 /   0  10  20  30                                           
GCK  64  96  67  95 /   0  20  20  40                                           
EHA  63  94  65  94 /   0  20  20  30                                           
LBL  66  96  66  97 /   0  20  20  30                                           
HYS  67  97  68  96 /   0  10  20  30                                           
P28  69  99  72  99 /   0  10  20  20                                           
&&                                                                              
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
NONE.                                                                           
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
FN12/27                                                                         
</PRE></TT></td>   ks                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH                                          
358 PM EDT FRI AUG 11 2006                                                      
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...                                 
A FEW SHOWERS CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE                  
FORECAST AREA. BUT IT LOOKS LIKE THESE SHOULD FINALLY MOVE OUT                  
EARLY THIS EVENING. MEANWHILE CLEARING ALONG WITH DRIER AIR IS                  
MOVING IN FROM THE NORTH.                                                       
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE THE PREDOMINANT FEATURE THROUGH THE PERIOD.               
HOWEVER AN INVERTED TROUGH IS FORECAST TO BE NEAR THE OHIO RIVER.               
LIMITED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD RESULT IN ONLY SOME CUMULUS                   
DEVELOPMENT DURING THE DAY.                                                     
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...                                           
LITTLE CHANGE FROM PREV FCST AS SFC HI PRES WILL BE ACRS REGION FOR             
SUNDAY.  AS SFC HI PUSHES TO EAST ON MON...SFC FLO WILL BECOME SRLY             
WITH TEMPS WARMING AS MID LVL RIDGE ACRS CNTRL PLAINS EXPANDS EAST.             
A STRONG MID LVL S/WV WILL TRACK ACRS SRN CANADA MON AND TUES.  A               
COLD FRONT WILL ACCOMPANY THE DISTURBANCE...TRACKING INTO OH VLY MON            
NIGHT AND TUES.  EXTENDED MODELS IN BETTER AGREEMENT ON FROPA                   
TIMING...BRINGING BNDRY THRU FCST AREA LATE MON AND DURING DAY TUES             
WITH SCT TSTMS.  LARGE SFC HI PRES WILL REESTABLISH ITSELF ACRS GRT             
LKS AND OH VLY IN WAKE OF THIS COLD FRONT TUES NIGHT...WITH DRY WX              
EXPECTED THEN THRU THE END OF THE WORK WEEK.  TEMPS WILL LARGELY                
REMAIN SEASONABLE AND PLEASANT FOR MUCH OF EXTENDED PERIOD.  MODELS             
HINTING AT AN EXPANSION OF RIDGE INTO EASTERN CONUS TOWARDS END OF              
FCST PERIOD.  BROUGHT AFTN HIGHS BACK UP INTO U80S BY NEXT FRI...AND            
DOES APPEAR A RETURN TO HOTTER AND MORE HUMID WX EXISTS BY NEXT                 
WEEKEND.                                                                        
RYAN                                                                            
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION...                                                             
 /ISSUED 201 PM EDT FRI AUG 11 2006/                                            
AVIATION /18Z-18Z/...                                                           
PCPN NR KCVG REMAINS FOCUSED ALONG AN AREA OF WEAK SFC/H8                       
CONVERGENCE. RUC HAS THIS AREA FINALLY WEAKENING AFT 18-02Z. WILL               
KEEP A TEMPO AT KLUK FOR A COUPLE OF HOURS AND VCSH AT KCVG/KILN.               
AFT 20Z...PCPN SHOULD BE SOUTH AND EAST OF TAFS. MID AND HIGH                   
CLOUDS WILL CLEAR FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. SKIES SHOULD BE SCT BY 03Z               
IN THE SOUTH.                                                                   
DRIER DEWPOINTS WORK IN FROM THE NE TONIGHT. NOT EXPECTING FOG IN               
THE NORTH...BUT CARRIED MVFR FOG IN THE SW...WHERE THE PCPN HAS                 
LINGERED TODAY.                                                                 
SCT CU SHOULD FORM AFT 15Z IN THE SW.                                           
SITES                                                                           
&&                                                                              
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
OH...NONE.                                                                      
KY...NONE.                                                                      
IN...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</PRE></TT></td>   oh                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH                                          
201 PM EDT FRI AUG 11 2006                                                      
.AVIATION /18Z-18Z/...                                                          
PCPN NR KCVG REMAINS FOCUSED ALONG AN AREA OF WEAK SFC/H8                       
CONVERGENCE. RUC HAS THIS AREA FINALLY WEAKENING AFT 18-02Z. WILL               
KEEP A TEMPO AT KLUK FOR A COUPLE OF HOURS AND VCSH AT KCVG/KILN.               
AFT 20Z...PCPN SHOULD BE SOUTH AND EAST OF TAFS. MID AND HIGH                   
CLOUDS WILL CLEAR FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. SKIES SHOULD BE SCT BY 03Z               
IN THE SOUTH.                                                                   
DRIER DEWPOINTS WORK IN FROM THE NE TONIGHT. NOT EXPECTING FOG IN               
THE NORTH...BUT CARRIED MVFR FOG IN THE SW...WHERE THE PCPN HAS                 
LINGERED TODAY.                                                                 
SCT CU SHOULD FORM AFT 15Z IN THE SW.                                           
SITES                                                                           
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION...                                                             
 /ISSUED 912 AM EDT FRI AUG 11 2006/                                            
SHORT TERM /REST OF TODAY/...                                                   
AREA OF SHOWERS ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA ARE SLOWLY DROPPING SSE.                 
INCREASED POPS ESPECIALLY IN THE INDIANA COUNTIES...AS THIS AREA                
WILL SCRAPE THROUGH THEM. NOT CONFIDENT ON HOW FAR EAST THESE                   
SHOWERS WILL WORK...AS THE EASTERN EDGE HAS BEEN WEAKENING AND                  
ERODING OVER THE LAST HOUR. DIDNT BRING THE INCREASED POPS EAST OF              
I-75. DROPPED MENTION OF THUNDER IN THE EAST AND LOWERED POPS.                  
TEMPS AND CLOUD COVER LOOK OKAY FOR NOW.                                        
SITES                                                                           
PREV DISCUSSION...                                                              
 /ISSUED 627 AM EDT FRI AUG 11 2006/                                            
AVIATION /12Z-12Z/...                                                           
CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS DEPICTS WEAK FRONT ACROSS NORTHERN                     
CENTRAL KENTUCKY THIS MORNING. RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS PRECIPITATION                
TRYING TO FILL IN. HAVE A VCSH IN KDAY AND TEMPO GROUPS AT KCVG                 
AND KLUK FOR MVFR CONDITIONS. KCMH AND KLCK SHOULD REMAIN DRY                   
WITH DRIER AIR WORKING IN ACROSS THE NORTH. SKIES WILL GRADUALLY                
CLEAR THIS EVENING INTO SATURDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL STAY UP A                  
BIT OVERNIGHT...SO FG/BR SHOULD NOT BE MUCH OF A PROBLEM                        
OVERNIGHT. JUST HAVE ADDED MVFR BR AT KCVG AND KLUK WITH THOSE                  
LOCATIONS DUE TO MORE RAINFALL. RLG                                             
PREV DISCUSSION...                                                              
 /ISSUED 225 AM EDT FRI AUG 11 2006/                                            
SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...                                            
PCPN TRYING TO FILL IN SOME ACROSS NORTHERN INDIANA THIS MORNING.               
THIS IS IN RESPONSE TO MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE DROPPING DOWN ACROSS THE            
AREA. SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES EXIST THOUGH WITH THE HANDLING OF THIS             
FEATURE AND ITS ASSOCIATED SURFACE WAVE. THE GFS APPEARS TOO                    
OVERDONE WITH ITS SURFACE AND 850 LOW/LOW LEVEL JET AT 06Z BASED ON             
CURRENT READINGS. HOWEVER ON THE OTHER HAND...NAM-WRF APPEARS TOO               
UNDERDONE BASED ON WHAT IS CURRENTLY GOING ON. AS A RESULT WILL TAKE            
A BIT OF A BLEND OF THE TWO...BUT LEAN CLOSER TO DRIER NAM-WRF AS               
THE GFS APPEARS TO BE CRANKING OUT WAY TOO MUCH PCPN THROUGH THE DAY            
TODAY. AT ANY RATE...AS WAVE PUSHES EAST SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE                  
DAY...WILL KEEP POPS IN CHANCE CATEGORY WITH HIGHEST POPS ACROSS THE            
SOUTH/WEST.                                                                     
COULD SEE A FEW SHOWERS LINGER INTO THIS EVENING ACROSS THE                     
SOUTHEAST BUT OVERALL...EXPECT A MAINLY DRY NIGHT WITH A GRADUAL                
CLEARING TREND. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD INTO THE AREA             
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM FOR MAINLY CLEAR SKIES.                 
CLOUDS SHOULD HELP KEEP TEMPS DOWN SOME TODAY...PARTICULARLY THROUGH            
EARLY AFTERNOON. WILL THEREFORE GO CLOSER TO COOLER MAV GUIDANCE FOR            
HIGHS TODAY...ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTH WHERE THE CLOUDS SHOULD BE THE            
MOST PREVALENT. THEN EXPECT TO SEE A SLOW WARM UP IN AFTERNOON HIGHS            
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS LOW LEVEL FLOW BECOMES MORE SOUTHERLY.                   
PREV DISCUSSIONS...                                                             
THE FOLLOWING WAS ISSUED AT 144 AM EDT FRI AUG 11 2006                          
AVIATION /06Z-06Z/...                                                           
CURRENT SURFACE MAP DEPICTS NEARLY STATIONARY BOUNDARY NEAR THE                 
OHIO RIVER. RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS LIGHT SHOWERS IN THE VICINITY OF                
THE FRONT. AN AREA OF HEAVIER SHOWERS WAS NOTED ACROSS NORTHERN                 
INDIANA. MODELS ARE NOT IN GOOD AGREEMENT THIS MORNING. THE GFS                 
IS QUITE A BIT WETTER THAN THE NAM/WRF. HAVE GONE WITH A                        
COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE TWO AND INCORPORATED LATEST RUC ANALYSIS.                
MODELS PRETTY CONSISTENT WITH PRECIPITATION OVER NORTHERN INDIANA               
DISSIPATING OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. NORTHERN TERMINALS SHOULD                  
REMAIN RELATIVELY DRY THROUGH THE PERIOD. A STRAY SHOWER IS                     
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE WEST...SO HAVE KEPT A VCSH AT KDAY AND KILN.                
SOME SUNRISE MVFR BR IS POSSIBLE AT THESE SITES...WITH KILN                     
DROPPING TO IFR THIS MORNING. KCVG AND KLUK WILL EXPERIENCE MVFR                
SHOWERS AND BR FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS. HAVE KEPT TEMPO GROUP FOR                
THIS BUT REMOVED VCTS AND CB MENTION THROUGH 10Z. KEPT CB MENTION               
AFTER SUNRISE WITH BOUNDARY LINGERING ACROSS THE AREA. THE                      
BOUNDARY WILL SLOWLY SAG SOUTH ALLOWING FOR DRIER TO WORK INTO                  
THE REGION TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD. HAVE GRADUALLY BEGAN TO                
SCATTER OUT LOW CLOUDS TOWARD THE END OF THE FORECAST. RLG                      
ISSUED 430 PM EDT THU AUG 10 2006                                               
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/                                           
SFC HI PRES WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH AND PROVIDE FOR A PLEASANT             
WEEKEND WITH SEASONABLE TEMPS.  POLAR VORTEX WILL HOLD OVER CANADIAN            
MARITIMES OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO ERLY NEXT WEEK...TRAPPED BTWN               
BROAD MID LVL RIDGE OVER CNTRL PLAINS AND RIDGE OVER NRN ATLC                   
OCEAN.  AS UPR LO BEGINS TO PULL NE AWAY FROM NRN NEW                           
ENGLAND...ANOTHER FAIRLY POTENT MID LVL S/WV WILL MOVE ALONG                    
US/CANADIAN BORDER MON AND TUES DRAGGING AN ATTENDANT COLD FRONT                
THRU REGION.  SUBTLE TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH FROPA BTWN EXTENDED                
MODELS...SO BROUGHT CHANCE POPS INTO NRN FCST AREA MON AFTN AND ACRS            
ENTIRE FCST AREA MON NIGHT.  FRNTL BNDRY WILL PUSH SE OF FCST AREA              
TUES AS ANOTHER PLEASANT CANADIAN HI PRES BUILDS INTO REGION.  HI               
PRES WILL THEN REMAIN ACRS REGION THRU END OF FCST PERIOD...WITH DRY            
WEATHER AND NEAR NORMAL TEMPS.                                                  
&&                                                                              
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
OH...NONE.                                                                      
KY...NONE.                                                                      
IN...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</PRE></TT></td>   oh                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OHIO                                         
115 PM EDT FRI AUG 11 2006                                                      
.AVIATION(18Z-18Z)...                                                           
ALTHOUGH OVERALL ATMOSPHERE IS DRY...LOCAL LAKE MOISTURE GIVING WAY             
TO AFTERNOON CUMULUS.  TOL/FDY HAVE FLIRTED WITH MVFR CEILINGS ALL              
MORNING AS THEY ARE EXPERIENCING A DIRECT FETCH FROM THE LAKE.  WITH            
AFTERNOON MIXING THOUGH...CEILINGS EXPECTED TO RISE AND SKY TO                  
BECOME SCT...AND THEN FINALLY CLEAR FOR THE OVERNIGHT.  WINDS MAY               
GUST AROUND 20 KNOTS ESPECIALLY FOR ERI/CLE THIS AFTERNOON.  HIGH               
PRESSURE TO OUR NORTH REMAINS IN CONTROL FOR THE DAY SAT.  WITH A               
DRIER MORE EASTERLY FLOW EXPECT LESS CU SAT THAN TODAY.                         
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM (THIS AFTERNOON)...                                                 
UPDATED TO REMOVE MORNING PORTION. ALSO WENT MOSTLY SUNNY IN NE.                
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM (TODAY)...                                                          
ADJUSTED WORDING FOR TODAY WITH THE SHOWERS OVER NORTHWEST OHIO AND             
THE SHOWERS THAT MAY BRUSH THE SW PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS             
AM. ALSO ADJUSTED THE WORDING OF THE CLOUDS IN THE NORTHEAST AREA.              
NORTHEAST FLOWS CAN BE TOUGH IN CAUSING CLOUDS IN INLAND NORTHEAST              
OHIO...WILL MENTION BECOMING PARTLY CLOUDY. THE CLOUDS OVER THE LAKE            
ARE NOT TOO BUBBLEY...THUS THREAT OF WATERSPOUTS SEEM VERY LOW. ALSO            
LOCAL WATERSPOUT SCHEME SAYS NORTHEAST FLOW IS TOUGH FOR THEM TO                
DEVELOP.                                                                        
SHORT TERM(TODAY-SUN)...                                                        
COLD FRONT SOUTH OF THE AREA WITH A NORTHEAST FLOW AND DRIER AIR                
MOVING IN. THE LAKE AND 850 MB TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCE AT 12Z WILL BE            
NEAR 13C AND REMAIN THAT WAY FOR THE DAY. WILL FORECAST PARTLY                  
CLOUDY THE ENTIRE CWA AS SOME CLOUDS BRUSHING THE SOUTHERN CWA FROM             
A VORT MAX THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA AND IN THE NORTH SOME                
LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS EVEN OVER NW OHIO BECAUSE THE FLOW IS NORTHEAST.             
ALL THE MODELS (NGM, WRF, GFS, RUC) INDICATING A THREAT OF SHOWERS              
NEAR THE LAKESHORE THROUGH 14Z BECAUSE OF CONVERGENCE...WILL GO WITH            
A 20 POP FOR THE LAKESHORE THIS MORNING. THE CANADIAN AND LOCAL                 
SCHEME INDICATE A WATERSPOUT THREAT BECAUSE OF COLD AIR OVER THE                
WARM LAKE AND SOME CONVERGENCE AS INDICATED BY RADAR AND SATELLITE.             
THE CONVERGENCE SEEMS TO BE DECREASING. THE THREAT SHOULD END BY                
NOON AS THE HIGH BUILDS IN. MAY MENTION A WATERSPOUT THREAT IN HWO.             
CLEARING TONIGHT AS THE 850 MB TEMPERATURE WARMS SOME AND DECREASES             
THE LAKE AND 850 MB TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCE TO ABOUT 10C DURING THE              
NIGHT. WITH THE LOCATION OF THE HIGH AND THE AIRMASS DRYING OUT SOME            
IT WILL BE OR BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR TONIGHT. PLENTY OF SUN SATURDAY               
AND SUNDAY.                                                                     
MAV GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES GENERALLY OK...MADE SOME MINOR                        
ADJUSTMENTS...A LITTLE WARMER SATURDAY AS THE HIGH BEGINS TO MOVE               
EAST AND SOUTHEAST FLOW RETURNS. THE MINIMUM TEMPERATURE FOR                    
SATURDAY NIGHT FROM THE MAV MAY BE A LITTLE TOO WARM IN THE EAST AND            
TOO COOL AT TOL.                                                                
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM (MON-THU)...                                                         
THE ECMWF IS A LITTLE FASTER WITH THE FRONT FOR MONDAY THAN THE GFS.            
NONE THE LESS THE THREAT FOR THE AFTERNOON AND NIGHT SHOULD BE OK.              
ACCORDING TO THE GFS THE CAPE AND LIS NOT THAT BAD. WILL MONITOR SPC            
DAY4-8 SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK. OTHERWISE DRY WEATHER.                           
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...                                                          
RELATIVELY QUIET PATTERN FOR THE EXTD WITH ONLY ONE COLD FRONT TO               
DEAL WITH MON AFTN/EVE.  OTHERWISE RIDGE SLOWLY BUILDING INTO THE               
REGION AND HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE GREAT LAKES                  
TUE-THU.  NEAR NORMAL TEMPS.                                                    
&&                                                                              
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
.OH...NONE.                                                                     
.PA...NONE.                                                                     
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHORT TERM...KIELTYKA/LW                                                        
LONG TERM...OUDEMAN/KIELTYKA                                                    
AVIATION...OUDEMAN                                                              
</PRE></TT></td>   oh                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX                                          
213 PM CDT FRI AUG 11 2006                                                      
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
WITH SHOWERS/TSTMS STARTING ALREADY...IT NOW LOOKS LIKE THE                     
NAM/ETA HAD A BETTER HANDLE ON THE CONVECTION. THE RUC DEVELOPED                
THE PRECIP FROM ABOUT UVALDE...COMANCHE...SHERMAN...WHICH TURNS                 
OUT TO BE TOO FAR WEST AND SOUTH. GFS CAUGHT THE SHOWERS STILL IN               
WEST TEXAS THROUGH OKLAHOMA...BUT DID NOT DO A GOOD JOB ON THE                  
NEW INITIATION IN NORTH TEXAS. WITH THAT BACKGROUND...I HAVE                    
LEANED TOWARDS THE NAM FOR THE EVENING AND SATURDAY                             
PRECIPITATION. GFS SEGMENTS THE OVERNIGHT/SATURDAY RAIN INTO                    
DISCRETE BULLSEYES AND THAT APPEARS TO BE ITS CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK               
PROBLEM SHOWING UP AGAIN. NO MODELS HANDLE SUMMER CONVECTIVE                    
PRECIP VERY ACCURATELY...SO HAVE KEPT LOW POPS ACROSS THE CWA                   
THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON ENDING ALL THE RAIN AT MIDNIGHT.                     
HEAVIER CLOUDS AND HOPEFULLY SOME RAIN WILL KEEP SATURDAY HIGH                  
TEMPERATURES DOWN IN THE LOW TO MID 90S NORTH AND MID TO UPPER                  
90S SOUTH. HIGHS NEAR 100 RETURN ON SUNDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH                 
THE WEEK...BUT A ONE DAY BREAK IS WELCOME.                                      
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  76  95  77  98 /  20  20  20  10                          
WACO, TX              75  96  77  99 /  10  20  20  10                          
PARIS, TX             75  92  74  96 /  30  30  20  10                          
DENTON, TX            76  95  77  98 /  30  20  20  10                          
MCKINNEY, TX          73  94  74  97 /  30  20  20  10                          
DALLAS, TX            74  94  75  98 /  20  20  20  10                          
TERRELL, TX           75  93  75  97 /  20  20  20  10                          
CORSICANA, TX         75  95  75  99 /  10  20  20  10                          
TEMPLE, TX            70  95  73  97 /  10  20  20  10                          
&&                                                                              
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 6 PM FRIDAY FOR TXZ091-TXZ092-TXZ100-                    
TXZ101-TXZ102-TXZ115-TXZ116-TXZ117-TXZ129-TXZ130-TXZ131-TXZ132-                 
TXZ141-TXZ142-TXZ143.                                                           
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM FRIDAY FOR TXZ092-TXZ093-TXZ102-TXZ103-                
TXZ104-TXZ117-TXZ118-TXZ119-TXZ120-TXZ133-TXZ134.                               
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
/84                                                                             
</PRE></TT></td>   tx                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION                                     
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX                                          
155 PM CDT FRI AUG 11 2006                                                      
.AVIATION...                                                                    
AMENDING METROPLEX TAFS TO BUMP UP TIMING 2-3 HOURS SOONER THAN                 
PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT.  TR.92                                                      
1230 PM AVIATION DISCUSSION...                                                  
AS FRONT STALLS IN SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA...MOISTURE POOLING ALONG AND               
AHEAD OF WILL KEEP DEWPOINTS FROM MIXING OUT AS MUCH AS YESTERDAY               
AND CONTRIBUTE TO MARGINAL INSTABILITY.  CU FIELD BEGINNING TO                  
DEVELOP ALONG THE RED RIVER WHERE CONVECTIVE INITIATION IS EXPECTED             
TO OCCUR BY MID AFTERNOON.  STORM MOTION WILL BRING ISO-SCT STORMS              
SOUTH INTO THE METROPLEX AROUND 0Z.  WILL CARRY TEMPO FOR TSRA FROM             
1-4Z FOR DAL/DFW...AND AN HOUR EARLIER FOR AFW/FTW.  BELIEVE LOSS OF            
HEATING WILL CAUSE ACTIVITY TO WANE BY MIDNIGHT.  THEREAFTER...KEPT             
TAFS VFR AT ALL SITES WITH SCT MID-HIGH CLOUDS.  WINDS WILL CONTINUE            
TO PREVAIL OUT OF THE SOUTH. HAVE KEPT ALL SITES DRY SAT                        
MORNING...AS CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE ANY RAIN CHANCES UNTIL            
AFTER THIS TAF CYCLE.  TR.92                                                    
&&                                                                              
.UPDATE...                                                                      
WILL DO A QUICK UPDATE TO INCREASE POPS AGAIN IN THE WEST THROUGH               
NORTHEAST. RAPID CU GROWTH AND SHOWER/TSTM INITIATION ALREADY                   
BEGINNING TO OCCUR.    84                                                       
&&                                                                              
.PREV UPDATE...                                                                 
1030 AM                                                                         
CLOUDS ADVECTING INTO THE NORTHWEST ZONES ALREADY...SO I AM LOWERING            
HIGHS A BIT UP THERE. DON/T THINK 100S WILL HAPPEN WITH THE THICKER             
CLOUDS. I AM CAUTIOUSLY OPTIMISTICALLY RAISING THE POPS THIS                    
AFTERNOON/EVENING ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF. MODELS HAVE CONTINUED A             
TREND OF LOOKING WETTER AS TIME GOES ON...FRONTAL BOUNDARY CONTINUES            
TO MOVE SLOWLY SOUTH AS WELL. IF THE THICK CLOUDS MOVE SOUTH FASTER             
THAN EXPECTED CENTRAL AREAS MAY NOT REACH TRIPLE DIGITS EITHER.                 
MODELS DIVERGE ON EXACT SOLUTION OF WHERE POPS WILL BE...BUT RUC HAS            
SHOWN NO RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY AND AM LEANING MORE TOWARDS NAM/ETA.            
VERY LITTLE 12Z GFS IN YET TO COMPARE. UPDATE SHOULD BE OUT WITHIN              
NEXT 15 MINUTES. 84                                                             
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 354 AM CDT FRI AUG 11 2006/                         
DISCUSSION...                                                                   
THE RED FLAG WARNING AND HEAT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT TODAY.                 
CURRENT THINKING IS THAT THEY WILL NOT BE CONTINUED INTO SATURDAY.              
A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM SOUTH OF CHILDRESS TO SOUTH OF               
FORT SMITH AT 08Z. 88D REGIONAL LOOP SHOWS THE TROUGH MOVING SOUTH              
DUE TO LAST EVENINGS OUTFLOW AND PRESSURE RISES. EXPECT THE TROUGH              
TO MOVE SOUTH OF THE RED RIVER THIS AFTERNOON AND THEN PUSH DOWN TO             
A JACKSBORO TO SULPHUR SPRINGS LINE THIS EVENING.THE FRONT WILL MOVE            
BACK NORTH SATURDAY NIGHT WITH A DRY FORECAST SUNDAY THROUGH                    
THURSDAY.                                                                       
THE ARRIVAL OF THE SURFACE TROUGH WILL ENHANCE PRECIPITATION CHANCES            
ACROSS NORTH TEXAS...MAINLY NORTH OF I-20 AND EAST OF I-35. THE GFS             
IS THE MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH AN MCS DEVELOPING OVER THE NORTHEAST 1/4            
LATE TONIGHT AND SLIDING SOUTHWARD ON SATURDAY. THE NAM FAVORS THE              
SAME AREA...BUT WITH MUCH LESS QPF. BY ANY TOKEN...THIS IS A FAIRLY             
GOOD CHANCE FOR RAINFALL OVER THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN HALF OVER THE            
NEXT 48 HOURS. CAPE FORECASTS ABOVE 1000 J/KG AND LI/S DOWN TO -4               
INDICATED SOME STORMS WILL BE STRONG AND A FEW MAY BECOME MARGINALLY            
SEVERE ON SATURDAY. PWAT ARE RUNNING NEAR 1.50" EAST OF I-35 AND ARE            
EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO AROUND 2" ALONG THE SURFACE TROUGH                      
OVERNIGHT....THUS SLOWING MOVING STORMS WILL DUMP OUT A CONSIDERABLE            
AMOUNT OF RAINFALL ALONG THEIR PATHS.                                           
THE TUTT UPPER LOW MOVING INTO NORTHERN MEXICO WILL WEAKEN AND                  
EVENTUALLY MOVE NORTHWARD THROUGH WEST TEXAS. DOUBT IF THIS SYSTEM              
WILL PROVIDE ANY RAINFALL FOR THE WESTERN CWA. THE MASSIVE TROPICAL             
HIGH OVER THE REGION WILL WEAKEN SLIGHTLY TO ALLOW THE UPPER LOW TO             
MOVE NORTH...THEN SETTLES OVER THE ARKLATEX REGION AND STRENGTHENS A            
LITTLE FOR NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL BE QUITE HOT AGAIN                      
TODAY...THEN SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER OVER THE WEEKEND. STORM OUTFLOW             
WILL PROVIDE ADDITIONAL COOLING OVER THE NORTHEAST 1/4 SATURDAY.                
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS ARE EXPECTED NEXT WEEK WITH THE RIDGE BACK IN                
CONTROL.                                                                        
&&                                                                              
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 6 PM FRIDAY FOR TXZ091-TXZ092-TXZ100-                    
TXZ101-TXZ102-TXZ115-TXZ116-TXZ117-TXZ129-TXZ130-TXZ131-TXZ132-                 
TXZ141-TXZ142-TXZ143.                                                           
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM FRIDAY FOR TXZ092-TXZ093-TXZ102-TXZ103-                
TXZ104-TXZ117-TXZ118-TXZ119-TXZ120-TXZ133-TXZ134.                               
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
/75/05                                                                          
</PRE></TT></td>   tx                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX                                          
144 PM CDT FRI AUG 11 2006                                                      
.UPDATE...                                                                      
WILL DO A QUICK UPDATE TO INCREASE POPS AGAIN IN THE WEST THROUGH               
NORTHEAST. RAPID CU GROWTH AND SHOWER/TSTM INITIATION ALREADY                   
BEGINNING TO OCCUR.    84                                                       
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
1230 PM                                                                         
AS FRONT STALLS IN SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA...MOISTURE POOLING ALONG AND               
AHEAD OF WILL KEEP DEWPOINTS FROM MIXING OUT AS MUCH AS YESTERDAY               
AND CONTRIBUTE TO MARGINAL INSTABILITY.  CU FIELD BEGINNING TO                  
DEVELOP ALONG THE RED RIVER WHERE CONVECTIVE INITIATION IS EXPECTED             
TO OCCUR BY MID AFTERNOON.  STORM MOTION WILL BRING ISO-SCT STORMS              
SOUTH INTO THE METROPLEX AROUND 0Z.  WILL CARRY TEMPO FOR TSRA FROM             
1-4Z FOR DAL/DFW...AND AN HOUR EARLIER FOR AFW/FTW.  BELIEVE LOSS OF            
HEATING WILL CAUSE ACTIVITY TO WANE BY MIDNIGHT.  THEREAFTER...KEPT             
TAFS VFR AT ALL SITES WITH SCT MID-HIGH CLOUDS.  WINDS WILL CONTINUE            
TO PREVAIL OUT OF THE SOUTH. HAVE KEPT ALL SITES DRY SAT                        
MORNING...AS CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE ANY RAIN CHANCES UNTIL            
AFTER THIS TAF CYCLE.  TR.92                                                    
&&                                                                              
.PREV UPDATE...                                                                 
1030 AM                                                                         
CLOUDS ADVECTING INTO THE NORTHWEST ZONES ALREADY...SO I AM LOWERING            
HIGHS A BIT UP THERE. DON/T THINK 100S WILL HAPPEN WITH THE THICKER             
CLOUDS. I AM CAUTIOUSLY OPTIMISTICALLY RAISING THE POPS THIS                    
AFTERNOON/EVENING ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF. MODELS HAVE CONTINUED A             
TREND OF LOOKING WETTER AS TIME GOES ON...FRONTAL BOUNDARY CONTINUES            
TO MOVE SLOWLY SOUTH AS WELL. IF THE THICK CLOUDS MOVE SOUTH FASTER             
THAN EXPECTED CENTRAL AREAS MAY NOT REACH TRIPLE DIGITS EITHER.                 
MODELS DIVERGE ON EXACT SOLUTION OF WHERE POPS WILL BE...BUT RUC HAS            
SHOWN NO RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY AND AM LEANING MORE TOWARDS NAM/ETA.            
VERY LITTLE 12Z GFS IN YET TO COMPARE. UPDATE SHOULD BE OUT WITHIN              
NEXT 15 MINUTES. 84                                                             
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 354 AM CDT FRI AUG 11 2006/                         
DISCUSSION...                                                                   
THE RED FLAG WARNING AND HEAT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT TODAY.                 
CURRENT THINKING IS THAT THEY WILL NOT BE CONTINUED INTO SATURDAY.              
A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM SOUTH OF CHILDRESS TO SOUTH OF               
FORT SMITH AT 08Z. 88D REGIONAL LOOP SHOWS THE TROUGH MOVING SOUTH              
DUE TO LAST EVENINGS OUTFLOW AND PRESSURE RISES. EXPECT THE TROUGH              
TO MOVE SOUTH OF THE RED RIVER THIS AFTERNOON AND THEN PUSH DOWN TO             
A JACKSBORO TO SULPHUR SPRINGS LINE THIS EVENING.THE FRONT WILL MOVE            
BACK NORTH SATURDAY NIGHT WITH A DRY FORECAST SUNDAY THROUGH                    
THURSDAY.                                                                       
THE ARRIVAL OF THE SURFACE TROUGH WILL ENHANCE PRECIPITATION CHANCES            
ACROSS NORTH TEXAS...MAINLY NORTH OF I-20 AND EAST OF I-35. THE GFS             
IS THE MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH AN MCS DEVELOPING OVER THE NORTHEAST 1/4            
LATE TONIGHT AND SLIDING SOUTHWARD ON SATURDAY. THE NAM FAVORS THE              
SAME AREA...BUT WITH MUCH LESS QPF. BY ANY TOKEN...THIS IS A FAIRLY             
GOOD CHANCE FOR RAINFALL OVER THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN HALF OVER THE            
NEXT 48 HOURS. CAPE FORECASTS ABOVE 1000 J/KG AND LI/S DOWN TO -4               
INDICATED SOME STORMS WILL BE STRONG AND A FEW MAY BECOME MARGINALLY            
SEVERE ON SATURDAY. PWAT ARE RUNNING NEAR 1.50" EAST OF I-35 AND ARE            
EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO AROUND 2" ALONG THE SURFACE TROUGH                      
OVERNIGHT....THUS SLOWING MOVING STORMS WILL DUMP OUT A CONSIDERABLE            
AMOUNT OF RAINFALL ALONG THEIR PATHS.                                           
THE TUTT UPPER LOW MOVING INTO NORTHERN MEXICO WILL WEAKEN AND                  
EVENTUALLY MOVE NORTHWARD THROUGH WEST TEXAS. DOUBT IF THIS SYSTEM              
WILL PROVIDE ANY RAINFALL FOR THE WESTERN CWA. THE MASSIVE TROPICAL             
HIGH OVER THE REGION WILL WEAKEN SLIGHTLY TO ALLOW THE UPPER LOW TO             
MOVE NORTH...THEN SETTLES OVER THE ARKLATEX REGION AND STRENGTHENS A            
LITTLE FOR NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL BE QUITE HOT AGAIN                      
TODAY...THEN SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER OVER THE WEEKEND. STORM OUTFLOW             
WILL PROVIDE ADDITIONAL COOLING OVER THE NORTHEAST 1/4 SATURDAY.                
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS ARE EXPECTED NEXT WEEK WITH THE RIDGE BACK IN                
CONTROL.                                                                        
&&                                                                              
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 6 PM FRIDAY FOR TXZ091-TXZ092-TXZ100-                    
TXZ101-TXZ102-TXZ115-TXZ116-TXZ117-TXZ129-TXZ130-TXZ131-TXZ132-                 
TXZ141-TXZ142-TXZ143.                                                           
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM FRIDAY FOR TXZ092-TXZ093-TXZ102-TXZ103-                
TXZ104-TXZ117-TXZ118-TXZ119-TXZ120-TXZ133-TXZ134.                               
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
/75/05                                                                          
</PRE></TT></td>   tx                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX                                          
1230 PM CDT FRI AUG 11 2006                                                     
.AVIATION...                                                                    
AS FRONT STALLS IN SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA...MOISTURE POOLING ALONG AND               
AHEAD OF WILL KEEP DEWPOINTS FROM MIXING OUT AS MUCH AS YESTERDAY               
AND CONTRIBUTE TO MARGINAL INSTABILITY.  CU FIELD BEGINNING TO                  
DEVELOP ALONG THE RED RIVER WHERE CONVECTIVE INITIATION IS EXPECTED             
TO OCCUR BY MID AFTERNOON.  STORM MOTION WILL BRING ISO-SCT STORMS              
SOUTH INTO THE METROPLEX AROUND 0Z.  WILL CARRY TEMPO FOR TSRA FROM             
1-4Z FOR DAL/DFW...AND AN HOUR EARLIER FOR AFW/FTW.  BELIEVE LOSS OF            
HEATING WILL CAUSE ACTIVITY TO WANE BY MIDNIGHT.  THEREAFTER...KEPT             
TAFS VFR AT ALL SITES WITH SCT MID-HIGH CLOUDS.  WINDS WILL CONTINUE            
TO PREVAIL OUT OF THE SOUTH. HAVE KEPT ALL SITES DRY SAT                        
MORNING...AS CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE ANY RAIN CHANCES UNTIL            
AFTER THIS TAF CYCLE.  TR.92                                                    
&&                                                                              
.UPDATE...                                                                      
CLOUDS ADVECTING INTO THE NORTHWEST ZONES ALREADY...SO I AM LOWERING            
HIGHS A BIT UP THERE. DON/T THINK 100S WILL HAPPEN WITH THE THICKER             
CLOUDS. I AM CAUTIOUSLY OPTIMISTICALLY RAISING THE POPS THIS                    
AFTERNOON/EVENING ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF. MODELS HAVE CONTINUED A             
TREND OF LOOKING WETTER AS TIME GOES ON...FRONTAL BOUNDARY CONTINUES            
TO MOVE SLOWLY SOUTH AS WELL. IF THE THICK CLOUDS MOVE SOUTH FASTER             
THAN EXPECTED CENTRAL AREAS MAY NOT REACH TRIPLE DIGITS EITHER.                 
MODELS DIVERGE ON EXACT SOLUTION OF WHERE POPS WILL BE...BUT RUC HAS            
SHOWN NO RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY AND AM LEANING MORE TOWARDS NAM/ETA.            
VERY LITTLE 12Z GFS IN YET TO COMPARE. UPDATE SHOULD BE OUT WITHIN              
NEXT 15 MINUTES. 84                                                             
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 354 AM CDT FRI AUG 11 2006/                         
DISCUSSION...                                                                   
THE RED FLAG WARNING AND HEAT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT TODAY.                 
CURRENT THINKING IS THAT THEY WILL NOT BE CONTINUED INTO SATURDAY.              
A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM SOUTH OF CHILDRESS TO SOUTH OF               
FORT SMITH AT 08Z. 88D REGIONAL LOOP SHOWS THE TROUGH MOVING SOUTH              
DUE TO LAST EVENINGS OUTFLOW AND PRESSURE RISES. EXPECT THE TROUGH              
TO MOVE SOUTH OF THE RED RIVER THIS AFTERNOON AND THEN PUSH DOWN TO             
A JACKSBORO TO SULPHUR SPRINGS LINE THIS EVENING.THE FRONT WILL MOVE            
BACK NORTH SATURDAY NIGHT WITH A DRY FORECAST SUNDAY THROUGH                    
THURSDAY.                                                                       
THE ARRIVAL OF THE SURFACE TROUGH WILL ENHANCE PRECIPITATION CHANCES            
ACROSS NORTH TEXAS...MAINLY NORTH OF I-20 AND EAST OF I-35. THE GFS             
IS THE MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH AN MCS DEVELOPING OVER THE NORTHEAST 1/4            
LATE TONIGHT AND SLIDING SOUTHWARD ON SATURDAY. THE NAM FAVORS THE              
SAME AREA...BUT WITH MUCH LESS QPF. BY ANY TOKEN...THIS IS A FAIRLY             
GOOD CHANCE FOR RAINFALL OVER THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN HALF OVER THE            
NEXT 48 HOURS. CAPE FORECASTS ABOVE 1000 J/KG AND LI/S DOWN TO -4               
INDICATED SOME STORMS WILL BE STRONG AND A FEW MAY BECOME MARGINALLY            
SEVERE ON SATURDAY. PWAT ARE RUNNING NEAR 1.50" EAST OF I-35 AND ARE            
EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO AROUND 2" ALONG THE SURFACE TROUGH                      
OVERNIGHT....THUS SLOWING MOVING STORMS WILL DUMP OUT A CONSIDERABLE            
AMOUNT OF RAINFALL ALONG THEIR PATHS.                                           
THE TUTT UPPER LOW MOVING INTO NORTHERN MEXICO WILL WEAKEN AND                  
EVENTUALLY MOVE NORTHWARD THROUGH WEST TEXAS. DOUBT IF THIS SYSTEM              
WILL PROVIDE ANY RAINFALL FOR THE WESTERN CWA. THE MASSIVE TROPICAL             
HIGH OVER THE REGION WILL WEAKEN SLIGHTLY TO ALLOW THE UPPER LOW TO             
MOVE NORTH...THEN SETTLES OVER THE ARKLATEX REGION AND STRENGTHENS A            
LITTLE FOR NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL BE QUITE HOT AGAIN                      
TODAY...THEN SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER OVER THE WEEKEND. STORM OUTFLOW             
WILL PROVIDE ADDITIONAL COOLING OVER THE NORTHEAST 1/4 SATURDAY.                
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS ARE EXPECTED NEXT WEEK WITH THE RIDGE BACK IN                
CONTROL.                                                                        
&&                                                                              
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 6 PM FRIDAY FOR TXZ091-TXZ092-TXZ100-                    
TXZ101-TXZ102-TXZ115-TXZ116-TXZ117-TXZ129-TXZ130-TXZ131-TXZ132-                 
TXZ141-TXZ142-TXZ143.                                                           
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM FRIDAY FOR TXZ092-TXZ093-TXZ102-TXZ103-                
TXZ104-TXZ117-TXZ118-TXZ119-TXZ120-TXZ133-TXZ134.                               
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
/75/05                                                                          
</PRE></TT></td>   tx                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI                                  
210 PM CDT FRI AUG 11 2006                                                      
.DISCUSSION...FORECAST FOCUS ON ERODING CLOUD COVER TONIGHT...THEN              
ON PRECIPITATION CHANCES SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.                               
STRATOCUMULUS DECK HAS ERODED OVER FAR SOUTH CENTRAL                            
WISCONSIN...WITH A THICKER CLOUD COVER NORTH OF THE WISCONSIN RIVER.            
EVEN THERE LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING A THINNING TREND.                   
EXPECT CLOUDS TO CONTINUE TO DIMINISH THIS EVENING...BUT RUC                    
SOUNDING STILL SHOW SOME TRAPPED MOISTURE BELOW DEVELOPING LOW LEVEL            
INVERSION WEST OF MADISON.  WITH ANY CLEARING SKIES THERE WOULD BE              
SOME POTENTIAL OF FOG...MAINLY IN RIVER VALLEYS AND LOW AREAS AS MID            
LEVELS DRY.                                                                     
THE HIGH WILL SHIFT INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES SATURDAY AND                   
SATURDAY NIGHT WHILE UPPER RIDGING OCCURS OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI            
VALLEY REGION. MCS DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED TNT OVER THE NRN PLAINS              
BUT SHOULD DISSIPATE SAT AM OVER MINNESOTA...OR PUSH OFF WELL TO OUR            
NORTH...WHILE DRY AIR MASS HOLDS OVER WI. SOUTH WINDS AND WARM AIR              
ADVECTION INCREASES SUNDAY AFTERNOON AHEAD OF APPROACHING UPPER                 
TROUGH...WITH COLD FRONT OVER WESTERN ONTARIO AND MINNESOTA.                    
PRECIPITABLE WATER APPROACHES 2 INCHES ALONG COLD FRONT WITH MAINLY             
WEAK LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE. FRONT ALSO COMING THROUGH LATE SUN                  
NIGHT/MON AM DURING COOLEST PERIOD SO SOME UNCERTAINTY REMAINS ON               
COVERAGE OF RAIN. 40-50 POPS STILL LOOK GOOD FOR NOW.                           
FOR TUE THROUGH THU....UPPER RIDGING WILL RETURN AS AN UPPER TROF               
OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST LIFTS NORTHEAST INTO CANADA. NO RAIN                 
EXPECTED UNTIL FRIDAY.                                                          
MOS GUIDANCE LOOKS REASONABLE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.                              
&&                                                                              
.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
NONE.                                                                           
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
HENTZ                                                                           
</PRE></TT></td>   wi